349
FXUS61 KCAR 241235
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
835 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
8:35AM UPDATE...HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH
ROTATING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW TO OUR EAST IN THE MARITIMES. AS THE SUN ANGLE INCREASING
DURING THE DAY EXPECTING THE WARMING AND COLD POOL ALOFT TO LEAD
TO MORE SHOWERS.
PREVIOUS
-INCREASED PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.
-UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BASED ON UPCOMING 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS, THEN DRY SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS.
2) TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND GENERALLY DRY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS, THEN DRY SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY WITH CONTINUED
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TODAY AS ENERGY ROTATES AROUND THIS FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THIS MORNING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERD RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE
BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST AREAS. ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
THE AIR MASS WILL MODIFY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FINALLY MODERATING TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THIS
THIS OF YEAR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
AVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND GENERALLY DRY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY, THEN STARTS TO MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE WITH READINGS NEAR OR A BIT WARMER
THAN NORMAL. A FEW SOLUTIONS, MAINLY SOME CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS, BRING A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH NORTH LATE
MONDAY TO BRING SOME DECENT RAIN MAINLY TO DOWNEAST. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS (AT LEAST 80 PERCENT) KEEP THE LOW
PRESSURE SOUTH AND KEEP OUR AREA DRY. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH FOR
IS STUBBORN CLOUD COVER. MODELS TEND TO UNDERDO CLOUD COVER IN
SITUATIONS LIKE THIS WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE,
AS A THIN LAYER LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE CAN TEND TO GET LOCKED
IN. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST IS FOR GENERALLY PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF IT ENDS UP MORE ON
THE MOSTLY CLOUDY END OF THINGS. THIS COULD KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF WHAT IS FORECAST, AND NIGHTTIME LOW ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF WHAT IS FORECAST. DIDN'T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO HEDGE THINGS AT THIS TIME THOUGH. ALL OF THESE THINGS ARE
PRETTY LOW IMPACT.
HEADING TOWARD WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, THE PATTERN APPEARS TO
CHANGE WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP A BIT TO OUR WEST,
PUTTING US IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR PRECIPITATION. MODELS,
HOWEVER, DISAGREE WILDLY ON HOW MUCH RAIN AND THE TIMING OF ANY
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS IN THIS PATTERN. OVERALL, THE BETTER CHANCE
OF RAIN SEEMS TO BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY
TO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TODAY...PREDOMINANTLY VFR AT ALL THE TERMINALS TODAY. ALTHOUGH
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SCATTERED SNOW
AND RAIN SHOWERS, MAINLY AT THE AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. N WIND
AROUND 10 KT.
TONIGHT...VFR FOR KBGR/KBHB WITH VFR/MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT
THE AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. N WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
SATURDAY...VFR. N WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, WITH A CHANCE
OF MVFR CEILINGS MAINLY IN THE AM HOURS. VARIABLE WIND LESS
THAN 10 KTS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR, WITH A
CHANCE OF MVFR. SE WIND 5-15 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE (GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT CHANCE) IN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT WINDS/SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, CHANCES OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS INCREASE, WITH ABOUT A
75 PERCENT CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT WINDS AND/OR SEAS BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TF/TWD/JS
AVIATION...TF/TWD
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