834  
FXUS61 KCAR 181832  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
232 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CRESTS SOUTH  
OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM  
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CREST  
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR  
FILTERING DOWN FROM CANADA. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20-30 MPH  
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS  
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SKIES HAVE ESSENTIALLY CLEARED OVER MOST  
OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW CUMULUS REMAINING AS SOME MID-LEVEL  
MOISTURE REMAINS. EXPECT THAT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CLOUDS  
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.  
 
MINS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE NORTH WOODS AND  
UPPER 50S OVER DOWNEAST. WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST OF  
THE AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT  
ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. HIGHS  
DURING THE DAY WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES. DIURNAL CU IS  
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE  
EVENING HOURS AS NEXT SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.  
 
UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH  
SUBTLE S/WVS BRINGING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE  
IN THE EVENING BEFORE PRESSING SOUTHWARD.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SUNDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NEW  
ENGLAND. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT  
TIMING. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF QPF IS STILL DIFFERENT  
ACROSS THE EXTENDED MODELS. VORTICITY SHOWS A VORT MAX MOVING  
ACROSS THE SOUTH, SO SIDED WITH THE NBM RAIN FALL AMOUNTS BEING  
HIGHER IN THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT: THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PICK  
UP SPEED. THIS WILL PUSH THE REST OF THE RAIN OUT OF THE REGION  
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE  
MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL WITH 925MB MODEL TEMPS AROUND 6C. IN  
ADDITION, WITH CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT, TEMPS COULD DROP  
INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTH.  
 
MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT  
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH BREEZY NW WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD EACH INTO  
THE MID 60S IN THE NORTH AND LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATED THE REGION THROUGH THE  
REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER 70 TO  
LOW 80 BY THE END OF WEEK. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOWER MAY  
REACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, BUT EXTEND MODELS ARE VERY  
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMES AND TRACK. DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT  
CHANCE WITH THE NBM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SKC EXPECTED THROUGH  
SATURDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SCT VFR DEVELOPING LATE MORNING  
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH  
TO SOUTH BUT REMAIN VFR. EXCEPTION WILL BE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE  
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS TO MOVE IN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
SHORT TERM: SUNDAY...MVFR NORTH. VFR SOUTH. LIGHT SW WIND.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR, BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS  
OVER THE NORTH. VFR SOUTH. NW WIND BECOMING GUSTY.  
 
MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WIND.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NW WIND.  
 
TUESDAY...VFR. LIGHT NW WIND.  
 
WED...VFR. SW WINDS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS  
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 4FT OVER THE OUTER  
WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS  
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-  
030.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...BUSTER  
SHORT TERM...LAFLASH  
LONG TERM...LAFLASH  
AVIATION...BUSTER/LAFLASH  
MARINE...BUSTER/LAFLASH  
 
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