879  
FXUS61 KCAR 291522  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
1022 AM EST THU FEB 29 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY THEN MOVE SOUTH  
OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN  
SOUTH OF THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
CROSS THE REGION MONDAY.  

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
 
 
UPDATE...  
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE  
TODAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT, A  
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT PARTLY  
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. WILL ALSO HAVE ISOLATED  
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MOSTLY THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST  
WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 35 TO 40 MPH  
THOUGH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN  
AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR STEADY, OR SLOWLY FALL,  
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS NORTH, TO AROUND 20 TO THE  
LOWER 20S DOWNEAST WITH EVEN COLDER WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES.  
BASED ON MORNING TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE LOWERED HIGH  
TEMPERATURES. HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS  
ALONG WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWER CHANCES.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN STRENGTH THROUGH THE DAY AND  
INTO THE NIGHT TONIGHT, FALLING TO GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH OVER MOST  
OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO FALL,  
WITH AIR TEMPERATURES AROUND OR JUST BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH  
AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DOWNEAST. COMBINED WITH  
CONTINUED WINDS, THOUGH LESS WIND THAN EARLIER IN THE DAY, WIND  
CHILLS WILL PERSIST IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO  
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT.  

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND  
OUT TO THE WATERS ON FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE MIDWEST  
WILL CREATE SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION MAKING FOR A  
MOSTLY CLEAR AND BREEZY DAY. THE 925-850MB MODEL TEMPS SHOW THE  
ARCTIC AIR OVER THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THOUGH THE  
TEMPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS ARE FAIRLY COLD, THE LACK OF SNOW PACK  
AND BREEZY W WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTH  
AND 20S IN THE SOUTH. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD  
MOVE OFF OVER THE ATLANTIC, PUTTING THE AREA IN THE BACK END OF  
THE SYSTEM. THIS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO THE SSW, ALLOWING FOR  
WARMER AIR TO MOVE IN AND CAUSE AN ANTI-DIURNAL TREND THROUGH  
THE NIGHT. THE LOWEST TEMPS FOR THE NIGHT SHOULD BE AROUND  
SUNSET.  
 
BY SATURDAY, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE COAST WILL  
PUSH A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION. CLOUDS SHOULD START MOVING IN  
BY LATE MORNING, THEN INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WARM  
TEMPS IN THE 40S SHOULD KEEP INITIAL SHOWERS AS RAIN SHOWERS. BY  
SATURDAY NIGHT, THE WARM FRONT SHOULD STRETCH ACROSS DOWNEAST  
WHERE THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY. CLOUD COVER  
AND WARM SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.  

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WEATHER INTO  
SUNDAY, THROUGH MODELS ARE UNCERTAIN ON HOW THE LOW WILL EXIT  
THE AREA. MODEL UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WHERE THE NBM  
INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN, THOUGH EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWED VERY  
LITTLE QPF, SO DECREASED CHANCES. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BY  
THE NEXT SYSTEMS TO BRING PRECIP BY MIDWEEK, BUT THE HIGH  
INCONSISTENCIES GIVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYSTEM PRODUCING  
ANYTHING. EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  

 
   
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION  
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE WITH ANY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND  
MOUNTAINS TODAY. WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30  
TO 35 KNOTS TODAY. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH  
GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP  
TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM: FRIDAY...VFR. W TO SW WINDS 5-15 KTS.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. S WINDS 5-10 KTS.  
 
SATURDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR SOUTH. S WINDS 10-15  
KTS.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR NORTH. VFR TO MVFR SOUTH. LIGHT SW WINDS.  
 
SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NNE WINDS.  
 
MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT SE WINDS.  

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS  
TODAY THROUGH 5 AM FRIDAY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TODAY. A  
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS IN  
EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SCA CONDITIONS ON  
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA ON SUNDAY.  
SEAS WILL BE UP TO 11 FT THURSDAY EVENING, EVENING DROPPING TO 6  
TO 7 FT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN BELOW 4 FT ON SUNDAY.  

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.  
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST  
FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/ASTRAUSER  
SHORT TERM...LAFLASH  
LONG TERM...LAFLASH  
AVIATION...NORCROSS/LAFLASH  
MARINE...NORCROSS/LAFLASH  
 
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