284
FXUS61 KCAR 160651
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
251 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AM.
- INCREASING PROBABILITY OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AM ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE TONIGHT
WITH A THIRD TO A HALF INCH. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUED
RISES ON THE RIVERS.
2) AREAWIDE RAIN SUNDAY CHANGES TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL OF
SLICK MONDAY AM COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE
TONIGHT WITH A THIRD TO A HALF INCH. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
CONTINUED RISES ON THE RIVERS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYTIME TODAY. A
SMALL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
LATER TODAY SPREADING STEADIER RAIN ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING TONIGHT. AMOUNTS AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH
ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AND DOWNEAST WITH A BAND OF JUST OVER A
HALF INCH POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE RAIN, COMBINED WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT FROM THE HEADWATERS
OF THE NORTHERN RIVERS, WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL RISES ON THE
RIVERS. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE ICE HAS WASHED OUT OF THESE RIVERS AND
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE RAIN MAY RESULT IN SOME PONDING IN
LOW LYING AREAS AND RISES OF SMALL STREAMS. RAIN SHOULD END LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING DOWNEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AREAWIDE RAIN SUNDAY CHANGES TO SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LEADING
TO THE POTENTIAL OF SLICK MONDAY AM COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY A POTENT PARENT STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT
NORTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO THEN QUEBEC DRAGGING
AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO NEW ENGLAND. A STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE
WILL DIG SOUTH DRAGGING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE
WITH LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERHEAD LEADING TO
SURFACE CONVERGENCE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS MAINE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AM
AND LAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. EXPECTING GENERALLY 0.3-0.7 INCH
OF RAIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
CONTINUED SLOW RISE OF AREA RIVERS/STREAMS BUT FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT SIGNIFICANT AGREEMENT IN GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE OF A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ON A TRIPLE POINT ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE WATERS NEAR THE MAINE COAST. AS THIS HAPPENS AND THE
OCCLUDED FRONT SLIDES THROUGH EXPECTING SUNDAY NIGHT A
SIGNIFICANT SURGE OF COLDER AIR WITH A MOIST DGZ. AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS TO NEAR FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE
FROM RAIN TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH
WOODS TO ST. JOHN VALLEY FIRST THEN EVENTUALLY REACHING MUCH OF
THE CWA. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL BE
AVAILABLE BEHIND FROPA AND HOW QUICK THE COLD AIR WORKS INTO THE
REGION. GFS IS SLOWER ON THE COLD AIR WHILE ECMWF/CANADIAN IS
MUCH FASTER BUT THE GFS HAS MORE QPF AVAILABLE WITH THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN WITH LESS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN MAINE WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE BANGOR REGION TO INTERIOR DOWNEAST. NBM
PROBABILITIES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARE INCREASING BUT WITH THE
NUMEROUS UNCERTAINTIES STILL ON THE LOW SIDE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST AREAS FROM BANGOR TO
CALAIS ALONG THE AIRLINE NORTHWARD TO THE ST. JOHN VALLEY WHICH
MAY LEAD TO BLACK ICE SIMPLY FROM REFREEZING WET ROADWAYS. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A SLICK MONDAY AM COMMUTE EVEN IF THERE IS NO
SNOWFALL.
AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY...LIFR ALL SITES IN VERY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WINDS SE AROUND 5
KT.
TONIGHT...LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
FRIDAY...LIFR, IMPROVING TO IFR AROUND MIDDAY, THEN MVFR DURING MID
AFTERNOON AND FINALLY VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
WINDS N 5 TO 10 KT.
SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS IN THE AM AT SOUTHERN TERMS. AM IFR/LIFR
VSBY WITH FG POSSIBLE AT BGR AND BHB. OTHERWISE VFR THE REST OF
THE DAY FOR ALL TERMS. S-SE WINDS 5-15KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH LIFR POSSIBLE. RA BR/FG POSSIBLE.
S WINDS 5-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR LIKELY WITH RA. S WINDS 5-15KT SHIFTING W LATE
DAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR LIKELY. RA CHANGES TO SN AT NORTHERN
TERMS. RASN MIX FOR BGR AND RA AT BHB. WINDS SHIFT NW 5-15KT.
MONDAY...MVFR BECOMING VFR. SHSN POSSIBLE. NW WINDS 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE.
MARINE
WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY, TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SEAS AROUND 3
FT. FOG WILL LIKELY LIMIT VSBY AT TIMES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VSBY
IMPROVING ON FRIDAY. WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS INCREASE AND GUST >25KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6FT. WINDS/SEAS FALL BACK BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS BY MONDAY NIGHT. FOG MAY REDUCE VSBY SAT AM, THEN
RAIN/FOG WILL REDUCE VSBY SAT NIGHT INTO MON AM.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ001>006.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MB/JS
AVIATION...MB/JS
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