610
FXUS61 KCAR 171929
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
329 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION FRIDAY, CROSS
THE REGION SATURDAY THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE,
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MOISTURE
FROM OVER THE WATERS NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THIS IS LIKELY TO
RESULT IN FOG IN SOUTHERN REGIONS POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTH AS
HOULTON. THE DENSEST FOG IS LIKELY TO BE ALONG THE COAST. FOG
MAY STICK AROUND UNTIL MID MORNING UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING AND
INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELP TO MIX IT OUT.
CLOUDS MOSTLY CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, HELPING
TEMPERATURES BECOME WARM WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
UPPER 70S. A FEW PLACES COULD APPROACH 80 ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED. MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED ALONG
THE COAST AS A WEAK LOW PASSES WELL OFFSHORE. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS IN THE COASTAL DOWNEAST REGION CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT
DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION OF SHOWERS AS THE LOW LEVELS ARE
RELATIVELY DRY AND THE FORCING ALOFT IS WEAK SO LIKELY ANY RAIN
THAT DOES FALL WILL EVAPORATE. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE CROWN
OF MAINE THURSDAY EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN REGION, BEFORE EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING
NORTH OF HOULTON. AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE IN
THE FAR NORTH BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST
BEFORE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT CLEARS IT OUT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION, FROM WESTERN QUEBEC
PROVINCE, FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO CLIP NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY. COULD HAVE THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NORTH WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE EXITING ACROSS THE MARITIMES AND BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE, ALONG WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL MIXING, WILL ALSO HELP
SUPPORT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. COULD STILL HAVE BREEZY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY, THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY/SATURDAY WILL BE AT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
LEVELS. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
EXTENT TO WHICH LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE TO DE-COUPLE. FROST IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS MOSTLY THE NORMALLY
COLDEST NORTHWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON WITH NEAR FREEZING OR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE. PATCHY FROST COULD
ALSO POSSIBLY REACH INTO THE NORMALLY COLDEST PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES SUNDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH, MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION MONDAY WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY REGARDING THE
LOCATION OF A POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. COULD ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL LOCATION OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THOUGH TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM:
TONIGHT...VFR PQI/CAR/FVE. BGR/BHB LIKELY BECOMING LIFR IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG AROUND 4-6Z FOR BGR AND 1-3Z FOR BHB. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN LIFR CEILINGS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN FOG
DEVELOPING. LOW CONFIDENCE OF HUL DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR SO THUS
DID NOT INCLUDE IT IN TAF BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF IT DOES
HAPPEN IT WILL BE AFTER 6Z TONIGHT. S WIND 5 KTS.
THURSDAY...
EARLY IFR/LIFR FOR BGR SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY ABOUT 16Z, AND
TO VFR FOR BHB BY ABOUT 18Z. VFR FOR HUL/PQI/CAR/FVE THROUGH
THE DAY, EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR IN SHOWERS AFTER 21Z FOR FVE. S/SW
WIND AROUND 10 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOR NORTHERN SITES, POSSIBLE SEVERAL HOUR
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS JUST BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
OTHERWISE VFR. FOR SOUTHERN SITES LIKE BHB/BGR, POSSIBLE
MVFR/IFR IN LOW CEILINGS. FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT BGR/BHB WITH THE
GREATEST CONFIDENCE AT BHB. WINDS S 5-10 KTS SWITCHING TO THE
NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES FROM N TO S THROUGH THE AREA.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER NORTH
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS
FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY,
MOSTLY RIVER VALLEY, FOG BOTH SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS. OTHERWISE,
VFR. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS SATURDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST/SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SUNDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
20 KNOTS MONDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS ABOUT 10KTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET.
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. ANOTHER PERIOD OF FOG EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ANY SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE
LESS THAN 0.1 INCH OF RAIN. BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
EXPECTED. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 20 MPH
SATURDAY. COULD HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS FRIDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 30 TO AROUND 40
PERCENT, THEN AROUND 30 PERCENT SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...MELANSON
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS
AVIATION...MELANSON/NORCROSS
MARINE...MELANSON/NORCROSS
FIRE WEATHER...NORCROSS
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