884
FXUS61 KCAR 140541
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
141 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- BUMPED UP WINDS FOR TODAY, AND ADDING A KEY MESSAGE FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
- ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OVER INTRA-COASTALS THIS
AFTERNOON.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN FRONTAL TIMING LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. ISOLATED POWER
OUTAGES POSSIBLE.
2) PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT.
3) CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH LITTLE TO NO
DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY
MORNING. ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, SHOWERS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, GRADUALLY
TAPERING OUT OF THE REGION BY MID-MORNING. RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON THE DROUGHT.
A CHANCE FOR WINDS GUSTS 25-35MPH IS POSSIBLE TODAY, AS GUSTY
WINDS COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS INCREASE THIS
MORNING, AND STAY ELEVATED INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WITH ELEVATED GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, BRINGING
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MAINE. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES COULD LOCALLY DROP TO
AROUND FREEZING ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS. PATCHY/AREAS OF FROST
ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, PARTICULARLY IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER LOW LYING LOCATIONS. PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS
ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS BY LATE NEXT WEEK,
THOUGH LITTLE TO NO DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE FAR NORTH MOVES EASTWARD, PUSHING A
FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, LIKELY THURSDAY.
MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY WEAK,
BRINGING ONLY RAIN SHOWERS. NOT ANTICIPATING ENOUGH RAINFALL TO
PROVIDE DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THIS MORNING...VFR/MVFR, OCCASIONAL IFR, LATE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AT KHUL/KBGR/KBHB THIS MORNING. S WINDS AROUND 10
KTS, BECOMING SW/W.
MONDAY...OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING IN THE NORTH,
WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO
15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. CHANCE FOR VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT..VFR. S WINDS TUESDAY AROUND 5 TO 10
KTS. WINDS W/SW BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE FOR MVFR IN
RAIN SHOWERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY, THEN SW WINDS 5 TO
10KTS, GUSTING TO 15KTS.
MARINE
SCA LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE INTRA-COASTALS THIS AFTERNOON.
BELOW SCA LEVEL GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS. SEAS 2-4FT. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. WEST WINDS, SHIFTING N
TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT S/SW TUESDAY.
ALL WATERS SHOULD EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WINDS
LESS THAN 15 KT, GUSTS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...ASB/JMM
AVIATION...ASB/JMM
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