125
FXUS61 KCAR 250434
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1234 AM EDT THU APR 25 2024
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AND MOVE TO THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY ON MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
UPDATE...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH LINGERING FLURRIES ALSO
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
DOWNEAST OVERNIGHT. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH. HOWEVER, LOCALLY
STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 NORTH,
TO THE MID TO UPPER 20S DOWNEAST. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW FREEZING, ICY ROADS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. HAVE
UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, CLOUDS AND WINDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BY THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WITH SUNNY SKIES AND WARMING
TEMPS. NW WINDS WILL KEEP DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. THE ONLY CONCERN FOR TOMORROW WILL BE
THE AREAS IN THE SOUTH THAT DO NOT RECEIVE ANY PRECIP TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND HAVE LOW DEWPOINTS.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ANY SC CLD CVR EVEN OVR NE PTNS OF THE FA SHOULD DISSIPATE AND
MOVE E OF THE RGN THU EVE AS THEW UPPER TROF MOVES E AND WINDS
BECOME LGT WITH THE APCH OF A SPRAWLING LARGE AND STRONG CAN
HIGH PRES SYSTEM. OVRNGT LOW TEMPS WILL BE CHILLY WITH DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING SPCLY OVR NW VLYS WHERE SOME LCTNS WILL
EXPERIENCE LOWS OF MID TO UPPER TEENS. AFTER CHILLY START FRI
MORN, TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO AFTN HIGH TEMPS CLOSER TO CLIMO
VALUES FRI AFTN UNDER MSLY SUNNY SKIES.
AFTER ANOTHER CLR COOL, CALM NGT FRI NGT (BUT NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS THU NGT) AS STRONG SFC HIGH PRES REMAINS OVR THE FA, THE
WARMING TREND WILL CONT SAT UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LGT WINDS AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFY JUST W OF THE RGN, WITH MOST LOW TRRN
INLAND LCTNS REACHING ABV NORMAL AFTN HIGH TEMPS OF ARND 60 DEG
F.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE LONG RANGE WILL FEATURE AND OPEN UPPER E-W BLOCKING PATTERN
BETWEEN THE THE NW ATLC AND THE LOWER GREAT LKS. THIS WILL KEEP
THE RGN MSLY DRY THRU MON BEFORE THE UPPER RIDGE GETS FLATTENED
BY A S/WV ALF FROM S CNTRL CAN MON NGT INTO TUE. A WEAK BAND OF
WARM FRONT SHWRS MAY REACH MSLY WRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN AFTN
INTO SUN NGT BEFORE DISSIPATING, WITH LITTLE IF ANY MEASURABLE
RN.
MORE SIG RNFL WILL REACH SPCLY NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA LATER
MON NGT INTO TUE WHERE POPS REACH THE LIKELY RANGE BY BLENDED
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION, SOME MODELS, LIKE THE 12Z
DTMNSTC ECMWF INDICATE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MON
NGT, WHICH COULD MAKE HIGH TEMPS TUE MUCH COOLER THAN BLENDED
LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE GIVES FOR THIS DAY, SO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON THIS PARAMETER ATTM.
MODELS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN REGARDING WHAT HAPPENS AFTER TUE'S
S/WV MOVES E OF THE FA TUE EVE, WITH SOME MODELS LIKE THE 12Z
DTMNSTC GFS INDICATING A STRONGER S/WV ALF ARRIVING FROM S CNTRL
CAN BY LATE WED, WHILE THE CORRESPONDING ECMWF SHOWS MORE ZONAL
FLOW ALF WED AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THE 12Z CANGEM HAS A
CONSIDERABLE PHASE DIFFERENCE OF S/WVS FROM THE OTHER TWO MAJOR
MODELS, WITH TUE'S S/WV ARRIVING ON WED FOR OUR FA AND WED'S
S/WV ON THU. FOR NOW, WE JUST TRENDED POPS DOWNWARD TO CHC SHWRS
FOR MOST OF THE FA BY WED. GIVEN THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES, LOW
CONFIDENCE MUST BE GIVEN TO BOTH TEMPS AND POPS ON WED ATTM.
AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: THU NGT - SUN...ALL TAF SITES UNLMTD VFR
WITH LGT WINDS.
SUN NGT - MON...ALL TAF SITES VFR CLGS. ISOLD SHWRS MAINLY SUN
NGT. LGT WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A FEW WIND GUSTS COULD
APPROACH GALE LEVELS INTO EARLY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS WILL FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TO LONG TERM: NO HDLNS XPCTD WITH MSLY LGT WINDS AND LOW
WV HTS. KEPT CLOSE TO BLENDED WV MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FCST WV HTS
WITH WVS COMPOSED OF TWO WV GROUPS; A SHORT FETCH 3-5SEC GROUP
AND A SEMI-SWELL 8-10 SEC GROUP.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...NORCROSS/CLARK/VJN
MARINE...NORCROSS/VJN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page