916
FXUS61 KCAR 220631 CCA
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
231 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES MORE FOR TONIGHT. ANOTHER WIDESPREAD
FROST/FREEZE IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE.
-CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD FROST, ESPECIALLY IN COLDER VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL FROST
IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO DAMAGE TO
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
2) WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN LIKELY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. THIS COULD HELP AID IN MITIGATING ON GOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT LEADING TO
WIDESPREAD FROST, ESPECIALLY IN COLDER VALLEYS. ADDITIONAL FROST
IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO DAMAGE TO
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP JUST NORTH OF
THE AREA. AFTER SLIGHT WARMING TODAY, WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL RESUME FROM THE NORTHEAST, WITH SUB-540DAM 1000-500MB
THICKNESSES LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE.
THE COMBINATION OF A COLD AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
MOST GUIDANCE AGAIN. THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE WAS PREFERRED FOR
MOST POINTS, BUT VALLEYS AND AREAS THAT TYPICALLY SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS COULD BE EVEN
COLDER SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER FROST ADVISORY WILL BE
NECESSARY OVER NEARLY THE SAME AREAS ONCE THE ADVISORY THIS
MORNING ENDS. THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM IS NOT ACTIVE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINE, AND MANY OF THESE AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE AXIS OF DEEP
LAYERED RIDGING TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND. THE RESULT IS HIGH
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS WITH THE
CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITING THE REGION, SHOULD
ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT.
GIVEN NBM WARM BIAS WHEN THERE IS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING,
USED A BLEND OF NBM10/NBM/CONSMOS FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD FROST ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK
OVERNIGHT, WITH PATCHY FROST JUST TO THE SOUTH. THE FROST IS A
THREAT TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN LIKELY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THIS COULD HELP AID IN MITIGATING ON GOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE EXITING OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST LATE
SUNDAY, ALLOWS FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO SET UP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST, WITH A COLD AIR DAMMING
SIGNATURE OVER THE REGION, THAT IS REINFORCED BY A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON MEMORIAL DAY.
AS A RESULT, RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN
TAPERS OFF FROM SW TO NE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW
EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TO THE REGION
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP
TO 2/3 INCH OF RAINFALL AREA WIDE. THE RAINFALL COUPLED WITH THE
COLD AIR DAMMING SHOULD RESULT IN MONDAY BEING COOLER THAN
SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH SATURDAY... VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS TODAY, GUSTING
TO 20-25 KTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY, WITH A MODEST SOUTH SEA BREEZE AROUND 5-10 KTS
DEVELOPING SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS DOWNEAST TERMINALS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. S-SE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOP BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR, EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ANY STRONGER SHOWERS AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. W WINDS G15KT POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 40S.
A FAIRLY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD LIMIT WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
TO 2 FT OR LESS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. ON THE OUTER WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, THERE SHOULD BE WIND GUSTS UP TO
25-30KT AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT. WHILE WINDS SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT ON
THE OUTER WATERS, SEAS SHOULD REMAIN UP TO 7 FT. A RELAXED
PRESSURE GRADIENT RETURNS TO THE WATERS ON TUESDAY, WITH WINDS
15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
AND 5 FT OR LESS ON THE OUTER WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
010-011-031-032.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/MWS
AVIATION...PM/MWS
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