052
FXUS61 KCAR 082306
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
706 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 7:06PM UPDATE...CANADIAN RADARS SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS
APPROACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY IN QUEBEC. THIS AREA
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE NORTH WOODS IN THE MAINE/QUEBEC
BORDERLANDS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE SO
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE OVERNIGHT POPS AND THUNDER
CHANCES. ADDITIONALLY, ADJUSTED SKY CONDITIONS BASED ON THE
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THERE IS SMOKE ALOFT THAT CONTINUES
THE VERY MILKY SKIES. HRRR/RAP SMOKE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR SURFACE SMOKE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
ON IF THIS WILL RESULT IN VISIBILITY REDUCTION SO OPTED TO
NOT PUT SMOKE INTO THE FORECAST JUST YET. ALSO MODELS CONTINUE
TO MAINLY CONFINE THIS SMOKE ACROSS NORTHERN 1/3RD OF THE
CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOSE TRENDS.
- 00Z TAF UPDATE...SEE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR AN UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY LEADING TO
MILKY SKIES, IN AREAS NOT OVERRUN BY HIGH CLOUDS. SMALL CHANCE
IN SMOKE MIXING DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OVER THE NORTH.
2) INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY
LEADING TO MILKY SKIES, IN AREAS NOT OVERRUN BY HIGH CLOUDS.
SMALL CHANCE IN SMOKE MIXING DOWN TOWARD THE SURFACE ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WILDFIRE SMOKE ALOFT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A MILKY APPEARANCE TO THE SKY
COULD BE PRESENT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT SMOKE COULD BEGIN TO MIX DOWN
TOWARDS THE SURFACE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTH PER 12Z HRRR AND RRFS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY THROUGH LATE
WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWARDS THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING ACROSS THE DOWNEAST REGION. GIVEN
MARGINAL INSTABILITY PRESENT ALONG THE TROUGH, CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BANGOR AND DOWNEAST REGIONS BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
AS WELL, WITH TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO THE TROUGH LIFTING INTO THE
UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE BANGOR AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGIONS.
BEHIND THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, THE NORTH WILL LIKELY REMAIN
WARMER THAN AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS LIFTING UP TO AROUND 80 UNDER
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES MAY NOT
LIFT AS HIGH SHOULD UPPER LEVEL SMOKE TREND THICKER INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BLOCKING INCOMING SOLAR RADIATION.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATER THREAT OF STORMS WILL BE ON FRIDAY FROM
BANGOR TO THE COAST. HOWEVER, TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH STORMS SET
UP. A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY MEANS STORMS COULD FIRE OFF
AROUND NOON IN NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BUT A FASTER PASSAGE
MAY MEAN STORMS ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN AREAS. GUIDANCE
IS STILL SHOWING BOTH SOLUTIONS BUT GENERALLY LEANING TOWARDS
THE LATTER. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG STORM FOR THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE BIGGER THREAT LOOKS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OUT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
00Z TAF UPDATE...
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR, THOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY
COASTAL FOG AT BHB. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KPQI
NORTHWARDS LATE TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. S TO SW WINDS
5KTS OR LESS.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED -TSRA.
ADDED PROB30 TO HUL AND BGR WHERE CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
WINDS SHIFT W BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT....VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS, ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. NW WINDS 5-15KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. NW WIND 5-10 KTS, GUSTS TO 20 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR. N-NW WINDS AROUND 5KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MONDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR IN ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
MARINE
SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 5 FT OVER ALL WATERS, WITH WIND GUSTS
REMAINING BELOW 25 KTS ALL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND AND MONDAY WITH JUST SOME PASSING CLOUDS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AES/SM/JS
AVIATION...AES/SM/JS
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