495
FXUS61 KCAR 230553
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
153 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- SLOWED THE PROGRESSION OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CHANCE FOR PATCHES TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO DAMAGE TO
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
2) WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
THIS COULD HELP AID IN MITIGATING ON GOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
3) CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS COMING INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A CHANCE FOR PATCHES TO AREAS OF FROST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTY LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO DAMAGE TO
SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT,
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE ALLOWING A LIGHT RETURN
FLOW OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY OPAQUE
CIRRUS BUILDS INTO AROOSTOOK COUNTY OVERNIGHT. NBM APPEARS TO
FAST IN BRINGING IN OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDS, SO HAVE SLOWED
PROGRESSION MORE IN LINE WITH NAM. AS A RESULT LOWERED LOWS WITH
NBM/NBM10/CONSMOS BLEND, WITH MAIN CHANGE ACROSS AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. EVEN WITH THAT, CASE FOR MORE THAN PATCHY FROST IS
MARGINAL. THEREFORE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FROST HEADLINES FOR
TONIGHT WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
THIS COULD HELP AID IN MITIGATING ON GOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE EXITING OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST LATE
SUNDAY, ALLOWS FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO SET UP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST, WITH A COLD AIR DAMMING
SIGNATURE OVER THE REGION, THAT IS REINFORCED BY A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON MEMORIAL DAY.
MODEL TRENDS HAVE SHOWN A LATER START FOR THE RAIN MOVING FROM
W TO E. IN ADDITION, MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE SHORTWAVE SLOWING
DOWN ON MONDAY. THUS, RAIN DEVELOPS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ENDS
MONDAY EVENING.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TO THE REGION
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 0.75 INCH OF RAINFALL ALONG THE
COAST. AROUND 0.25 INCHES FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THE RAINFALL
COUPLED WITH THE COLD AIR DAMMING SHOULD RESULT IN MONDAY BEING
COOLER THAN SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS COMING INTO THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
PER PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL THROW MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES INTO OUR
AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL REACH ALL THE WAY INTO
NORTHERN CANADA, WHILE OUR AREA WILL BE ON THE TROUGH SIDE OF
THIS PATTERN. THIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN THROUGH
THE WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE
ROUNDS, WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS
PATTERN.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGHOUT BECOMES NW AT 6-9KT AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS BY MID MORNING. AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS, A SEABREEZE OF
AROUND 10KT DEVELOPS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AGAIN AT ALL LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT-SUNDAY...VFR, EXCEPT FOR A VERY LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
AT KBHB/KBGR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. FOG POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. LLWS POSSIBLE. SSE WINDS 5-10 KTS GUSTING TO 20 KT.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR DUE TO RAIN. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KT BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR, EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ANY STRONGER SHOWERS AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS . W WINDS 5-10 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS INTO BGR/BHB.
LIGHT S WINDS TUE NIGHT, THEN NW WINDS 5-10 KTS WED.
MARINE
A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL
LIMIT THE SUSTAINED WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS AND THE SEAS TO 2 FT
OR LESS OVER ALL WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT OVER THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. ON THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, THERE SHOULD BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT AND SEAS UP TO
8 FT. WHILE WINDS SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT ON THE OUTER WATERS, SEAS
COULD REMAIN UP TO 6 FT. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT RETURNS TO
THE WATERS ON TUESDAY, WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT
OR LESS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 5 FT OR LESS ON THE
OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 40S AND ARE CONDUCIVE
TO HYPOTHERMIA TO ANYONE IMMERSED IN THE WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ002-005-006-
010-011-031-032.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ARL/PM
AVIATION...ARL/PM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page