785  
FXUS61 KCAR 182203  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
603 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE DOWNEAST COAST EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. STRONG LOW  
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT  
INTO FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
550 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHWR CVRG DIMINISHING  
ACROSS THE N AS 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS MOVES E WITH MDT-HVY RN  
SHWRS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVG SE INTO DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE  
RGN. SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH  
THE LOSS OF DAY TM HTG AND SFC BASED CAPE, WITH SHWR CVRG ACROSS  
ALL OF THE FA BECOMING NO MORE THAN ISOLD BY LATE NGT.  
OTHERWISE, WE LOWERED FCST OVRNGT LOWS BY 1 TO 3 DEG F SPCLY OVR  
NRN AREA BASED ON TRENDS SEEN IN LATE AFTN SFC OBS WHICH  
INDICATED A FEW LCTNS ALREADY NEAR PRIOR FCST LOWS ACROSS THE  
FAR N. TEMPS SHOULD LVL OFF ACROSS THE N WITH THE SLACKENING OF  
LLVL COLD ADVCN OVRNGT, WHILE FALLING OFF FAIRLY SHARPLY ACROSS  
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.  
 
ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE DOWNEAST COAST EARLY  
TONIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION  
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS  
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT, WHICH COULD LINGER ACROSS  
MOSTLY THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE CROSSING  
THE REGION WEDNESDAY COULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS  
MOSTLY THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S  
NORTH, TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER  
WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH, TO THE LOWER  
TO MID 60S DOWNEAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CHILLY AIR IN THE  
MID LEVELS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN  
LOTS OF STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, THURSDAY WILL BE A  
TRANQUIL AND COOL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA.  
PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES  
TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.  
OUR ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A VERY LARGE AND STRONG AUTUMNAL STORM  
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS  
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION.  
A SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY BY EARLY  
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES IN. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL  
LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A STRONG SOUTH WIND,  
LOW OVERCAST AND SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. WIND ADVISORIES MAY  
BE NEEDED FOR PART OR ALL OF THE AREA FOR SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY  
GUSTING OVER 45 MPH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY  
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. THE REST  
OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY BUT WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS OR  
DRIZZLE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER  
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE  
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON SATURDAY  
BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOWNEAST AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE  
NORTH. THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH THIS HIGH, BUT THE COOLER  
AIR OVER THE WARMER GROUND MAY AGAIN CAUSE STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER  
OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA  
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CALM AND CHILLY NIGHT. A RETURN FLOW  
BEHIND THE HIGH WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE AREA, MOSTLY  
CENTRAL AND NORTH, ON SUNDAY AS DOWNEAST REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR.  
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS.  
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH SOME VERY  
CHILLY AND DRY AIR INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY  
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR, WITH LOCAL LIFR, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MVFR  
CONDITIONS, MOSTLY CEILINGS, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS  
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS  
THEN PERSISTING TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR/MVFR  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS  
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS  
SOME STRATOCUMULUS LINGERS OVER THE NORTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD  
IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  
CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO IFR IN LOW CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO  
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, AND SSW  
WIND SHEAR, IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS  
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR NORTH AND VFR DOWNEAST SATURDAY MORNING,  
THEN VFR EVERYWHERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF  
THE WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS, FROM  
LATER THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE  
REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG EARLY TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SCA OR A GALE WILL LIKELY BE  
NEEDED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG SW WINDS AND BUILDING  
SEAS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT  
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...VJN  
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER  
LONG TERM...BLOOMER  
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER  
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER  
 
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