879
FXUS61 KCAR 111357
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
957 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2022
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC, CANADA TODAY AND CROSS
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ON MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
9:45 AM UPDATE:
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MAINE THIS MORNING. LOWERED SKY COVER. ALSO MADE
SOME GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND THUNDER BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS WITH THE COLD FRONT AND RELATED CONVECTION.
SPECIFICALLY, DELAYED ALL POPS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST
OF HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY
MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON, AND
SHOULD BE ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
TODAY WILL START WITH LOWER CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP A BIT LATER THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH WOODS BY MIDDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS NORTH. THE LAST OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD END RAPIDLY THIS EVENING, AND
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
THE AREA OF SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS
THE DOWNEAST REGION.
BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDING ACROSS THE NORTH SHOW ANYWHERE FROM A FEW
HUNDRED TO AS MUCH AS A THOUSAND J/KG OF CAPE DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE, AND PWATS
ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1.25-1.5". CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A STRONG JET ALOFT THAT WOULD TEND TO
SHEAR APART ANY STORMS THAT WOULD TRY TO GET GOING ABOVE AROUND 25K
FT AGL SHOULD DAMPEN THE SEVERE THREAT. WE ARE ALSO REACHING THAT
POINT IN THE SUMMER WHERE CLIMATOLOGICALLY THINGS NEED TO COME
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE
NORTH. MORE SUNSHINE AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS WOULD LEAD TO A
HIGHER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THE INSTABILTY WOULD BE
HIGHER. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.
GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY STRONGER WIND/HEAVY RAIN WILL
HOLD OFF ON ENHANCED WORDING AS IT WOULD HAVE TO BE A VERY
BROAD BRUSH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS INTERIOR
DOWNEAST NEAR 80F. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S
IN THE NW VALLEYS, LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH, AND
MID 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE HIGH COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION WILL BRING A COOL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY NEAR 70 OVER THE FAR NORTH AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
DOWNEAST. THE SKY WILL TURN OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOONLIT
AND COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE COOLER
VALLEYS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY
AND SEASONABLE DAY ON SATURDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER AND AN UPPER TROUGH DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE
OVERHEAD AND MAY PRODUCE A WEAK LOW OFF TO OUR EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING THIS LOW OFF TO OUR EAST TO BE TOO FAR EAST TO BRING
RAIN. HOWEVER, THE UPPER TROUGH MAY STILL BE PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS
IN THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST AND
AWAY ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL TO THE EAST.
SOME CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY BE OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS FROM
THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE,
SUNDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE TROUGH MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THIS LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH
CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE
AREA COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR, TO PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES IN. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS TOWARD OUR AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS JUST TO OUR EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW SHOULD BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLOUDY.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR/IFR LATE THIS MORNING.
VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KHUL NORTH. PREDOMINATELY VFR
TONIGHT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT WITH LOCAL IFR IN FOG
PATCHES. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR
AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG
TONIGHT. S TO SW WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY, SHIFTING INTO THE NW
AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. LOCALLY ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
OR NEAR ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM KHUL NORTH.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT N WIND
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT N WIND.
SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT NW WIND.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND BECOMING SW NEAR THE COAST.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR DOWNEAST. LIGHT SE
WIND.
MONDAY...MVFR LOWERING TO IFR. E WIND.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AT TIMES THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. VISIBILITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE GOOD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BUT MAY LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH INTO THE AREA.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CB/MSTRAUSER
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/MSTRAUSER/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER
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