636  
FXUS61 KCAR 312135  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
535 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO  
MONDAY AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL  
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT, LIFT TO THE NORTH ON  
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND  
THURSDAY NIGHT, SLIDING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
520 PM UPDATE: NO SIG CHGS THIS UPDATE WITH MOST FCST ELEMENTS  
REFLECTING CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, FCST HRLY TEMPS/DWPTS  
WERE UPDATED INTO THE OVRNGT HRS FROM OBSVD AFTN HI TEMPS AND  
LATEST HRLY SFC OBS. CONCERNS WITH REGARD TO THE CURRENT  
FROST/FREEZE HDLNS IN EFFECT FOR NRN/WRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE  
TNGT IS HOW MUCH CLRG DO WE GET FROM THE CURRENT SC/CU CLD CVR  
OVR THE RGN XTNDG FROM QB AND WHETHER WINDS WILL DECOUPLE  
ENOUGH FOR SIG RADIATIONAL COOLING.  
 
PREV DISC: FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING  
WIND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. COLD AIR ADVECTION  
CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TOWARDS MINUS 5C AND  
925MB TEMPS DROPPING TOWARDS 0C IN NORTHERN ZONES. THE  
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS PROMPTS FROST AND FREEZE WARNINGS FOR  
ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT DOWNEAST. THE SHALLOW INVERSION WILL BE  
QUICKLY ELIMINATED MONDAY MORNING. A COLD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS  
OVER THE AREA WITH SOME VERY HIGH BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER  
MOST OF THE AREA. THERE'S A VERY MODEST LAYER OF CAPE UP TO  
AROUND 700 MB. HOWEVER, THE AIR IS SO DRY THAT IT'S HARD TO  
ENVISION EVEN A SPRINKLE REACHING THE SURFACE AND WILL NOT GO  
WITH POPS. IN SPITE OF THE DEEP MIXED LAYER AND STEEP LOW LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES, THERE'S NOT MUCH WIND TO MIX DOWN, BUT DID USE  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEW POINTS FOR TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN  
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 60S FOR BANGOR AND  
THE COAST.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY  
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS DRY.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BASICALLY BE CLOUD FREE AS A RESULT. COUPLED  
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH FROST  
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE  
PENOBSCOT/BANGOR REGION AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON  
COUNTY. DEPENDING ON FUTURE REFINEMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURE  
FORECAST, SOME COMBINATION OF FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES COULD  
BE NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT  
SHOULD BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BUT STILL  
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 
AFTER A SUNNY START, SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS  
IMPINGE UPON THE REGION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE BANGOR REGION AND  
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES  
BELOW NORMAL.  
 
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT,  
WITH MORE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN VICE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE  
SHORTWAVE. AS A RESULT HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN  
AROOSTOOK TUESDAY NIGHT, WHERE POPS ARE LIMITED TO SLIGHT  
CHANCE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW  
NORMAL.  
 
THE REGION SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH  
THE ONE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE NEXT  
SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC/EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY  
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DO HAVE SOME LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE (CHANCE  
FAR DOWNEAST) POPS TO START WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THE DAY  
SHOULD END UP MAINLY, IF NOT ENTIRELY DRY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY  
SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
 
THE REGION IS THEN UNDER W, THEN WSW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY THROUGH  
FRIDAY. WHILE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS CHALLENGING FOR  
THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT, IT DOES APPEAR, AT THIS TIME, THAT  
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON THURSDAY MORNING, THAT THE  
REGION SHOULD BE DRY THURSDAY-FRIDAY.  
 
A FULL LATITUDE DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND  
SATURDAY, BRING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY A  
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY).  
 
A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
WITH DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS, AFTER POSSIBLY SOME EVENING  
SHOWERS, THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND.  
 
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
AND THURSDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE  
RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCELLENT VIS ARE EXPECTED. AFTER  
THIS AFTERNOON'S CLOUDS DISSOLVE, NO CIGS UNDER 5000 FT ARE  
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.  
 
SHORT TERM:  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR TO MVFR NORTH WITH MVFR OR  
LOWER POSSIBLE KBGR/KBHB.  
 
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY...VFR, EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY  
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS  
EVENING AS SEAS SLOWLY DECREASE FROM AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET TO  
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
 
SHORT TERM:  
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND  
TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN  
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
REMAINS LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, GENERALLY EXPECT, AFTER  
POSSIBLY SOME 20 KT GUSTS TUESDAY EVENING, WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND  
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
MEZ002-005-006-010-011-015-031-032.  
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR  
MEZ001-003-004.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...VJN  
SHORT TERM...MALOIT  
LONG TERM...MALOIT  
AVIATION...VJN/MALOIT  
MARINE...VJN/MALOIT  
 
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