605
FXUS61 KCAR 052353
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
753 PM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 7:53PM UPDATE...HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPSLOPE
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE MAINE/QUEBEC
BORDERLANDS ON THE WESTERLY WINDS. CANADIAN RADARS INDICATE
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY PUSHING SE BUT OVERALL POPS WILL BE
DECREASING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT
WITH THE PEAK LLJ INFLUENCE BETWEEN 5A-11A TUESDAY WITH THE
PEAK WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40-50MPH IN THE WIND ADVISORY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FOLIAGE LOSS ON THE TREES. HAVE
ADJUSTED PEAK WIND GUSTS FOR TUESDAY TO FALL DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. 00Z TAF UPDATE WHICH IS NOTED IN THE AVIATION
SECTION BELOW. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES...
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES. ALSO, THE STRONG WIND COUPLED WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY COULD LEAD TO
SOME ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. ALSO, THE STRONG WIND COUPLED WITH
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL MOVE IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. THE STRONGEST CORE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET LOOKS TO
MOVE OVER NRN AREAS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
GUSTS TO BETWEEN 40-50 MPH OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE
NORTH, WITH 65 MPH POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST SUMMITS.
OVER INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND THE BANGOR REGION, EXPECT WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH. EXISTING WIND ADVISORY LOOKS
GOOD SO WILL LEAVE IT AS IS. IT IS LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT LEAF
LOSS WILL OCCUR IN AREAS OF NORTHERN MAINE WHERE PEAK FOLIAGE
HAS BEEN REACHED. ADDITIONAL LEAF LOSS IS POSSIBLE IN THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE THE FOLIAGE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH. GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
POWER OUTAGES.
WITH THE COLDER AIRMASS MOVING, THE STRONG WIND WILL LEAD TO WIND
CHILLS DANGEROUSLY COLD IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. KATAHDIN WILL HAVE WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS EVEN
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY TUESDAY. HIKERS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
WINTER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
00Z TAF UPDATE...
TONIGHT...VFR VSBY (P6SM) PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
AROOSTOOK TERMINALS (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL): VFR CIGS 3,500 TO
10,000 FT, WITH VCSH DEVELOPING AT KFVE AFTER 05Z. W TO NW
WINDS 10 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(WS020/45–50KT) DEVELOPING BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z ACROSS ALL
NORTHERN TERMINALS.
BGR AND KBHB: VFR WITH FEW TO SCT CIGS 6,000 TO 8,000 FT. W TO
NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KT. LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (WS020/40KT) PRESENT AT KBGR THROUGH 08Z.
TOMORROW...VSBY (P6SM) PREVAILING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
AROOSTOOK TERMINALS (KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL): VFR CIGS 3,000 TO
4,500 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. KFVE MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR
CIGS NEAR 3,000 FT ALONG WITH VCSH THROUGH 18Z. CIGS SCATTERING
TO 4,500–15,000 FT AFTER 21Z. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ENDING
BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z. W TO NW WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH
GUSTS 30 TO 40 KT DURING THE DAY, EASING AFTER 21Z TO 10 TO 15
KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT.
BGR AND KBHB: VFR WITH FEW CIGS 6,000 TO 7,000 FT BECOMING SKC
AFTER 22Z. W TO NW WINDS 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KT,
DIMINISHING LATE TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR. W WINDS 5-10KTS, BECOMING
LGT/VRB LATE. SW 5-10KTS WED AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...MVFR NORTH WITH RAIN SHOWERS/VFR
SOUTH. S WINDS 5-10KTS, GUSTING 15-20KTS AT ALL TERMINALS.
THURSDAY WINDS WSW AT 5-10KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MVFR NORTH/VFR SOUTH. SW WINDS 5-10KTS.
GUSTS 10-15KTS FOR ALL TERMINALS. FRIDAY 5-10KT WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 10-15KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. W WINDS 5KTS BECOMING NW
10-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
WINDS GUSTS REACH GALE CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY OVER THE
COASTAL OCEAN AND OUTER WATERS, WITH A GALE WARNING IN EFFECT.
THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF ANZ050 AND ANZ051 WILL BE THE MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE GALE FORCES WINDS. WAVES PEAK AT 6-7 FEET
IN THE OUTER WATERS AND 4-6 FEET IN THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS.
WINDS DECREASE BELOW GALE CRITERIA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AND WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA IN THE
INTRACOASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WINDS OVER 25KTS POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS BEFORE DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY EVENING. SEAS INCREASE
ABOVE 5FT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN AND THE
OUTER WATERS DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051-080-081.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...21/JS
AVIATION...21/JS
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