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FXUS61 KCAR 102344
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
644 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION BELOW
-CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS AND THE TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM.
-WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
PENOBSCOT, ALL OF HANCOCK, AND CENTRAL AND COASTAL WASHINGTON
COUNTIES
-WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTH INTO NORTHERN
PENOBSCOT, NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS, NORTHERN SOMERSET, AND ALL OF
AROOSTOOK COUNTIES
KEY MESSAGES
1) SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH IMPACTS TO THE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE EXPECTED.
2) HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AREAS
SATURDAY.
3) SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
IMPACTS TO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EVENING COMMUTE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
CONFIDENCE IN THE WINTER STORMS HAS GREATLY INCREASED WITH THE
ADDITION OF THE CAMS MODELS INTO THE FORECAST. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK, PUSHING SNOW FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. BY TONIGHT, THE LOW WILL DEEPEN
CAUSING IT TO PICK UP SPEED AS II MOVE SE TOWARDS THE GULF OF
MAINE. AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE LOW WILL BE OVER THE WATERS. THE
DETERMINISTIC AND THE ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVING JUST SOUTH
OF THE DOWNEAST COAST. THE TIME PERIOD BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE PERIOD OF HIGHER SNOW TOTAL ACROSS
THE REGION WITH LOCALIZED 0.5 INCHES PER HOUR SNOW RATE. THIS
IS DUE TO THE SURFACE TROF DEVELOPING OFF THE LOW.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT TO A ENE TRACK MOVING SOUTH
OF NOVA SCOTIA. HOWEVER, THE TROF WILL STILL HANG OVER THE
REGION. THE CONCERN IS WITH THE INITIAL ONSHORE FLOW THAT MORE
MOISTURE WILL PIPE INTO THE SYSTEM CAUSING MORE SNOW BANDS AND
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE UPSLOPE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BY THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE TROF WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION,
PULLING THE SNOW BANDS ACROSS THE NORTH THEN WRAP AROUND TO THE
SOUTH, WHILE WASHINGTON COUNTY WILL SEE STAGNANT FLOW.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM WILL START TO CLEAR OUT LEAVING
BEHIND SNOW SHOWERS THAT WILL DEVELOP IN THE NORTH AND POSSIBLY
INTENSIFY WITH THE NORTH FLOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AREAS
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY. STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE WHICH COULD
SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES
AND IMPACT TRAVEL. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN TRACK NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY
WITH TRACK STILL EXISTS. ANY POSSIBLE IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION
WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TONIGHT...VFR THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND
05Z AT BGR AND BHB, AND 07Z AT AROOSTOOK TERMINALS
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO IFR/LIFR IN SNOW. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR CIGS AND VSBY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN NNE WINDS
5-10 KTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH. ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS, VFR/MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
THEN VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
TO 25 KNOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY SNOW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR/MVFR. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. VARIABLE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH
WIND REACHING NEAR SCA, BUT GUST AROUND 25 KTS SHOULD BE FEW.
WINDS DECREASE WEDNESDAY, BUT THEN INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO
SCA LEVELS.
WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE LEVELS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MEZ001>006-010-011-031-032.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ015>017-
029-030.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ARL/CN
AVIATION...21/ARL/CN
MARINE...ARL/CN
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