420
FXUS61 KCAR 042329
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
729 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 710PM UPDATE: RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO 60-70 PERCENT FROM FORT
KENT AND ASHLAND WEST INTO THE NORTH WOODS FROM MIDNIGHT TO
4AM TO ACCOUNT FOR A ROUND OF SHOWERS THAT IS LIKELY TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS REGION. ALSO, LOWERED RAIN CHANCES TO AROUND 10
PERCENT 5-9AM IN AROOSTOOK TO ACCOUNT FOR A PROBABLE BREAK IN
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
- ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
EASTPORT TO SCHOODIC POINT OUT 25NM FROM 5PM SATURDAY TILL
10AM SUNDAY.
- INCREASED WIND GUSTS FOR EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR SATURDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO OUR EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS
WILL BE LIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE DAY WONT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT.
2) RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH MIDWEEK, ACCOMPANIED BY
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...EXPECT ON AND OFF SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE DAY WONT BE A
COMPLETE WASHOUT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE PRINCE EDWARD
ISLAND/NOVA SCOTIA REGION THROUGH SATURDAY, AND WE WILL REMAIN
ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THIS LOW
PRESSURE, WITH SOME SHOWERS. EARLY THIS EVENING, SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATING A BIT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER, LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, A
SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING WEST AROUND THE LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
ANOTHER WAVE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA. NOTHING TOO CRAZY,
BUT SOME SPOTS ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL
QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TOWARD
DAWN SATURDAY, THEN SOME MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, BEST CHANCE BEING IN THE NORTH WITH ABOUT A 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN AT ANY ONE LOCATION. NOT A WASHOUT
DAY BY ANY MEANS, BUT YOU MAY NEED TO DODGE A SHOWER. QUITE
BREEZY SATURDAY WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST GUSTING TO AROUND
25 MPH.
KEY MESSAGE 2...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH MIDWEEK,
ACCOMPANIED BY NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
NORTH ATLANTIC BLOCKING WEAKENS SUNDAY EVENING ALLOWING FOR THE
STACKED LOW TRACK NE. EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS BETWEEN SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S BUT POTENTIALLY SOME UPPER
30S IN THE COLD SPOTS ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE ON MONDAY AM. A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY AM INTO TUESDAY PM WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MUCH OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE POINTING TO A MORE
ROBUST 500MB SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM TO PROVIDE ANOTHER
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING AND HOW MUCH RAINFALL WE WILL END UP WITH GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SHOWERS AND STRATIFORM PRECIP.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TONIGHT...MIX OF MVFR/VFR TONIGHT, WITH A CHANCE OF IFR THIS
EVENING MAINLY AT FVE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SMALL CHANCE OF FOG
MAINLY THIS EVENING. WINDS N 5-10 KTS BECOMING NE 10-15 KTS
TOWARD SUNRISE.
SATURDAY...MVFR BECOMING VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. N WINDS 5-10KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS,
BECOMING NW AROUND 5 TO 10KT MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE MONDAY NIGHT, BECOMING VFR TUESDAY. W-NW
WINDS 5-10KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR BECOMING MVFR LATE DAY. S WINDS 5-15KT.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
25-60NM WATERS WILL BEGIN TO SEE N-NNE WIND GUSTS 25-30KT BY
SUNRISE AND SOLIDLY GUSTING TO 30KT BY MIDDAY. A FEW GUSTS TO
25KT OVER THE EASTERN COASTAL WATERS OUT 25NM IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS TO 20KT OVER WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OUT 25NM. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM EASTPORT TO SCHOODIC
POINT OUT 25NM FROM 5PM SATURDAY TILL 10AM SUNDAY. DURING THIS
PERIOD N WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT EXPECTED.
SEAS PEAK AT 4 TO 7 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS 25-60NM AND 2 TO 4
FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS OUT TO 25NM SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS
DECREASE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY
MORNING. BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO
SATURDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN PATCHY FOG TONIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ050.
DISCUSSION...TF/JS
AVIATION...TF/JS
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