937
FXUS61 KCAR 142354
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
654 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
* 7PM UPDATE: REDUCED PRECIP CHANCES DOWNEAST THURSDAY MORNING
DUE TO MODEL TRENDS TOWARDS AN INTRUDING DRY SLOT THROUGH THAT
TIME. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF SLEET ON THURSDAY AS THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN WHEREVER COLD AIR
RUSHES IN MORE QUICKLY, FORECAST PROFILES DO NOT SUPPORT DEEP
ENOUGH SURFACE COLD AIR FOR ICE PELLET FORMATION.
* INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF ABRUPT RETURN OF COLD AIR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING - AND HENCE LIKELIHOOD OF A
FLASH FREEZE.
* LOW CHANCE OF A WINTER STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BUT
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THE ENSEMBLES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN WITH FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY (WINTRY MIX WITH FOG FAR
NW) WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES, MAKING TRAVEL
POTENTIALLY DIFFICULT. IN THE FAR NW, WINTRY MIX COULD MAKE ANY
UNTREATED ROADWAYS SLIPPERY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
2) FLASH FREEZE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING FROM
NW TO SE, WITH POSSIBLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ON TOP OF THAT ACROSS
THE NORTH. A RAPID FALL OFF OF TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE THE
RAPID FREEZE OF SLUSH AND WET SURFACES INTO ICE. THIS WILL MAKE
FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR ANY UNTREATED SURFACES, ESPECIALLY
THOSE COVERED BY ANY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH.
3) ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
INCLUDING A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MONDAY,
BUT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
RAIN WITH FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY (WINTRY MIX WITH FOG FAR
NW) WILL RESULT IN REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES, MAKING TRAVEL
POTENTIALLY DIFFICULT. IN THE FAR NW, WINTRY MIX COULD MAKE ANY
UNTREATED ROADWAYS SLIPPERY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING TRANSITING THE AREA THIS
EVENING, WILL HOLD THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OFF UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH, WITH RAIN MOVING IN ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN REGIONS THIS EVENING THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE UNDERCUTTING THAT RIDGING. DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL ADVECT IN
MILDER, MOISTER AIR FROM THE GULF OF MAINE, ALLOWING FOR PATCHES
TO POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. RAIN OVERSPREADS THE NORTH
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH A WINTRY MIX OVER NW ZONES. THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD OF SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE TRANSITION TO A
MORE RAIN/SNOW MIX (LIKELY ELEVATION DEPENDENT WITH AREAS ABOVE
1500 FT MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW THAN RAIN) - HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
THIS TIME. FORTUNATELY ANY FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
IN THE SPARSELY POPULATED AREA WEST OF THE ROUTE 11 CORRIDOR IN
THE NORTH WOODS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL ADDRESS WITH
AN SPS OR SHORT FUSED ADVISORY IF CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE
INCREASES. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM S TO N AS THE 925-850
MB WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE N MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY. THIS COULD LEAVE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN ITS WAKE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.
ALSO CONFIDENCE IN HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GET IN THE PATCHES
TO POSSIBLY AREAS OF FOG IS NOT GREAT - LIKELY WILL GET INTO THE
1-3 MILE RANGE BUT COULD FALL BELOW 1 MILE. LOCALLY DENSE FOG
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE DEEPER
SNOWPACKS ACROSS THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY RISE OR HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WITH LOWS LIKELY TO OCCUR THIS EVENING, WITH LOWS MAINLY
IN THE 30S. ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ONLY A FEW
DEGREES, IF THAT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A RISE OF AROUND 5
DEGREES FARTHER S. TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RAPIDLY FALL OFF ACROSS
FAR NW ZONES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON TO THE LOW-MID 20S WITH ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION THERE BECOMING FAIRLY QUICKLY ALL SNOW
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...FLASH FREEZE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING FROM NW TO SE, WITH POSSIBLY 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ON TOP
OF THAT ACROSS THE NORTH. A RAPID FALL OFF OF TEMPERATURES WILL
CAUSE THE RAPID FREEZE OF SLUSH AND WET SURFACES INTO ICE. THIS
WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR ANY UNTREATED SURFACES,
ESPECIALLY THOSE COVERED BY ANY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A CLOSED MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT
THEN EXITS TO THE EAST FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
HOW FAR S THE CENTER OF THIS LOW GETS. THIS WILL DETERMINE OVER
HOW MUCH OF THE ROUGHLY NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA WILL SEE
LINGERING SNOWFALL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IF IT OCCURS, IT WILL FALL
ON TOP OFF ANY SLUSH OR UNTREATED WET SURFACES WHICH RAPIDLY
FROZE AS TEMPERATURES PLUMMET THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE ACROSS THE
NORTH.
TEMPERATURES FALL OFF INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS ACROSS
THE NORTH BY FRIDAY MORNING AND TO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S
ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILLS BY FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE FROM AROUND 5
BELOW TO AROUND 10 ABOVE ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE AS NW WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 20-35MPH.
SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
GUSTY WINDS, MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN AGRICULTURAL AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
INCLUDING A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM MONDAY,
BUT SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ON STORM TRACK AND EVOLUTION.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A POSITIVE PNA WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A PATTERN OF LONGWAVE
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US WITH A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RELATIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN
FOR MAINE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE
PASSING THROUGH THE AREA IS LIKELY TO BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND BUT MOST NOTABLY THERE
IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS FOR A
POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT -MONDAY
TIME FRAME. WHILE THE GFS IS SHOWING A POWERFUL STORM JUST
OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF MAINE, ENSEMBLES ARE FAR LESS BULLISH
WITH LESS THAN 25% OF THE GEFS AND EPS MEMBERS SHOWING AN
IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM SO CURRENTLY HAVE QUITE LOW CONFIDENCE.
WORKING AGAINST SUCH A STORM IS AN EXPECTED NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY
POSITIVE NAO WHICH WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR A STRONGER, MORE ZONAL
JET STREAM, KEEPING THE LOW WEAKER AND FARTHER OFFSHORE. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM, ENSEMBLES POINT TOWARDS COLD AIR MOVING IN WITH
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TONIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE NIGHT, THOUGH FVE HAS
ALREADY SUNK INTO MVFR CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS RAIN SPREADS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH, WITH CIGS FALLING TO IFR/LIFR BY THE MORNING. SN
WILL MIX IN AT FVE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, BECOMING ALL SN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ALL OTHER SITES WILL REMAIN RA THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. HUL/BGR/BHB AND POSSIBLY PQI HAVE MORE UNCERTAINTY
IN PRECIP DURATION, AND RA MAY END EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
BETWEEN 12 AND 15Z. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN, THERE IS A CHANCE VIS
COULD REMAIN LOW DUE TO LINGERING BR, AND CIGS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN LOW, BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS MVFR/IFR. CAR/FVE WILL LIKELY BE MORE STEADY PRECIP AND
LOW CIGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, BECOMING S 5 TO 10 KTS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TOWARDS MVFR NORTH AND MVFR AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS,
WSW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS AT BGR/BHB/DOWNEAST TERMINALS.
FRIDAY...INTIALLY MVFR/IFR WITH -SN AT NORTHERN TERMS, MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. VFR SOUTH. EXPECTING VCSH/-SHSN BUT MAINLY
TRENDING TO VFR CONDITIONS. CANNOT RULE OUT SCT MVFR CIGS AT
NORTHERN TERMS IN THE AFTERNOON. W WINDS 5 TO15 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS. DRSN POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMS FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
FRI NIGHT...VFR. W WINDS BECOMING S AROUND 5 KTS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR NORTHERN TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS IN LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLY RAIN. S/SW WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS.
SAT NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH IFR ALSO POSSIBLE. -SN POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF IFR. -SHSN POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS W/SW 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUN NIGHT...VFR/MVFR WITH A LOW CHANCE OF IFR, ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. -SN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
MARINE
HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS AS WINDS
AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS HAVE CONTINUED THE EXISTING SCA THROUGH 1AM TONIGHT,
MAINLY, IF NOT ENTIRELY FOR SEAS. CONDITIONS BECOME SUB-SCA
THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
COULD INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY EVENING. GALES ARE
LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT, INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF
THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, SO HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH STARTING
AT 6Z FRIDAY.
WINDS DECREASE BELOW GALE CRITERIA FRIDAY EVENING WITH SMALL
CRAFT WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS BORDERLINE THROUGH SUNDAY BUT SHOULD RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS DECREASE FROM 6 TO 10 FT FRIDAY TO 4 TO 6 FT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
EXPECTED FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...AES/PM/SM
AVIATION...AES/PM/SM
MARINE...AES/PM/SM
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