879  
FXUS61 KCAR 111357  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
957 AM EDT THU AUG 11 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM QUEBEC, CANADA TODAY AND CROSS  
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WEAK LOW  
PRESSURE WILL LIFT EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE ON MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
9:45 AM UPDATE:  
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING ACROSS  
NORTHWESTERN MAINE THIS MORNING. LOWERED SKY COVER. ALSO MADE  
SOME GENERALLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND THUNDER BASED ON THE  
LATEST TRENDS WITH THE COLD FRONT AND RELATED CONVECTION.  
SPECIFICALLY, DELAYED ALL POPS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER  
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:  
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING EAST  
OF HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO  
MOVE INTO EASTERN QUEBEC AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND BY 12Z FRIDAY  
MORNING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE  
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON, AND  
SHOULD BE ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
TODAY WILL START WITH LOWER CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN. THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP A BIT LATER THIS MORNING.  
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
NORTH WOODS BY MIDDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST. THE HIGHEST POPS WILL  
EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS NORTH. THE LAST OF ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD END RAPIDLY THIS EVENING, AND  
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO END IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH WITH  
THE AREA OF SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS  
THE DOWNEAST REGION.  
 
BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDING ACROSS THE NORTH SHOW ANYWHERE FROM A FEW  
HUNDRED TO AS MUCH AS A THOUSAND J/KG OF CAPE DEPENDING ON THE  
MODEL. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE, AND PWATS  
ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1.25-1.5". CLOUDS AND SOME SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE  
MAIN COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A STRONG JET ALOFT THAT WOULD TEND TO  
SHEAR APART ANY STORMS THAT WOULD TRY TO GET GOING ABOVE AROUND 25K  
FT AGL SHOULD DAMPEN THE SEVERE THREAT. WE ARE ALSO REACHING THAT  
POINT IN THE SUMMER WHERE CLIMATOLOGICALLY THINGS NEED TO COME  
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER FOR A GREATER SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE  
NORTH. MORE SUNSHINE AND MUCH WARMER TEMPS WOULD LEAD TO A  
HIGHER THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS THE INSTABILTY WOULD BE  
HIGHER. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS AND AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS.  
GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY STRONGER WIND/HEAVY RAIN WILL  
HOLD OFF ON ENHANCED WORDING AS IT WOULD HAVE TO BE A VERY  
BROAD BRUSH ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE FA.  
 
HIGHS TODAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 70S WITH A FEW SPOTS INTERIOR  
DOWNEAST NEAR 80F. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S  
IN THE NW VALLEYS, LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTH, AND  
MID 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE GREAT  
LAKES ON FRIDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE HIGH COMBINED WITH AN  
UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR REGION WILL BRING A COOL DAY ON FRIDAY WITH  
HIGHS ONLY NEAR 70 OVER THE FAR NORTH AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S  
DOWNEAST. THE SKY WILL TURN OUT PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A MOONLIT  
AND COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S IN SOME OF THE COOLER  
VALLEYS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MOSTLY SUNNY  
AND SEASONABLE DAY ON SATURDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
OVER AND AN UPPER TROUGH DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE  
WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EAST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL STILL BE  
OVERHEAD AND MAY PRODUCE A WEAK LOW OFF TO OUR EAST. LATEST GUIDANCE  
IS SHOWING THIS LOW OFF TO OUR EAST TO BE TOO FAR EAST TO BRING  
RAIN. HOWEVER, THE UPPER TROUGH MAY STILL BE PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS  
IN THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE SLIDING EAST AND  
AWAY ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES WELL TO THE EAST.  
SOME CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY BE OVER NORTHEASTERN AREAS FROM  
THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE,  
SUNDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS JUST A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO  
MONDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES  
AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE TROUGH MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP LOW  
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THIS LOW BEGINS TO APPROACH  
CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE MONDAY. THE UPPER LOW CROSSING THE  
AREA COMBINED WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING A  
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL  
BE NEAR, TO PERHAPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS  
THIS TROUGH MOVES IN. THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY  
AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS TOWARD OUR AREA AND THE UPPER TROUGH  
REMAINS JUST TO OUR EAST. THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW SHOULD BEGIN  
TO LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL  
KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLOUDY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR/MVFR/IFR LATE THIS MORNING.  
VFR WITH LOCAL MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN SHOWERS AND  
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KHUL NORTH. PREDOMINATELY VFR  
TONIGHT AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, BUT WITH LOCAL IFR IN FOG  
PATCHES. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LOWER TO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE IFR  
AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG  
TONIGHT. S TO SW WIND 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY, SHIFTING INTO THE NW  
AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. LOCALLY ERRATIC WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN  
OR NEAR ANY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM KHUL NORTH.  
 
SHORT TERM:  
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT N WIND  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT N WIND.  
 
SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT NW WIND.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.  
 
SUNDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND BECOMING SW NEAR THE COAST.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR DOWNEAST. LIGHT SE  
WIND.  
 
MONDAY...MVFR LOWERING TO IFR. E WIND.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG AT TIMES THIS MORNING  
AND AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD FOG POSSIBLE LATE  
TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM:  
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. VISIBILITY SHOULD GENERALLY BE GOOD THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND BUT MAY LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO LIFT  
NORTH INTO THE AREA.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...CB/MSTRAUSER  
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER  
LONG TERM...BLOOMER  
AVIATION...CB/MSTRAUSER/BLOOMER  
MARINE...CB/BLOOMER  
 
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