128
FXUS61 KCAR 171146
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
746 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- REFINE POPS AND QPF TODAY TO DRY THINGS OUT JUST A LITTLE IN
THE FAR NORTH BASED ON CURRENT BREAKS MOVING IN, AND TO DRY
THINGS OUT SOME FROM BANGOR SOUTH AS THE RAIN IS HAVING
TROUBLE GETTING THIS FAR SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
2) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
OCCLUDED FRONT SITTING JUST TO THE EAST OF JAMES BAY AND THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER AS OF 05Z. MOST OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS JUST
NOW ENTERING INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE
CO-LOCATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND GRADIENT OF HIGHER PWATS
PER LATEST TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY. GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING
THIS WILL SHIFT EAST THRU 12Z THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME
SURFACE BOUNDARY ENHANCING LIFT IN SRN QUEBEC, JUST TO THE NORTH
OF NEW ENGLAND AND EXPECT THIS TO TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS WITHIN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. AS IT HEADS INTO THE
WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS OROGRAPHIC MAY HELP ENHANCE HEAVY
RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING THUS HAVE KEPT HEAVIEST TOTALS THRU
12Z OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
LLJ PUSHES EAST INTO NB BY 15Z THIS MORNING WITH STEADY RAIN
COMING TO AN END. HOWEVER WITH FRONT STILL LINGERING BACK TO THE
WEST THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF FORCING TO KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVER
MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH TREND OF PRIOR SHIFT WITH SLGT CHC TO LOCHC
POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE INCREASING TO LIKELY
TONIGHT AS COASTAL LOW RIDES TO THE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
OCCLUDED FRONT PRETTY MUCH DIES IN PLACE. DOWNEAST LIKELY TO SEE
AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT WITH HUMID AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS
OVER THE MARITIMES, THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER
THE HUDSON BAY BEGINS TO TRACK E. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EXIT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A
DRIER SOLUTION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. LITTLE QPF IS EXPECTED
WITH THESE SHOWERS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER BUT NOTHING SEVERE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TODAY...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES
EARLY THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TSTM MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. S WINDS
10-20KTS. LLWS AT FL020 FROM 200 AT 30-35KTS AT AROOSTOOK
TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
TONIGHT...IFR OR LOWER WITH FOG DEVELOPING ALL TERMINALS. S
WINDS 5KTS BECOME NEAR CALM LATE.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH MVFR IN SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED TSTM
IN THE AFTERNOON. ENE WINDS 5-10KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR EARLY, WITH INCREASING CHANCE
FOR MVFR/IFR FOR NORTH TERMINALS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE AREA. SW WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDS W TO NW AT 5 TO 10 KTS, LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY: VFR. W WINDS 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN AOB 20KTS OVER ALL WATERS THRU TUESDAY. SEAS
INCREASE TO NEAR 4FT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS
EVENING. SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 1-3 FEET INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE INCREASING ABOVE 5FT OVER WATERS FROM 25-60NM.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA MID TO LATE WEEK. GENERALLY SW
WINDS, GUSTS TO 15 KT, OVER THE WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...21/TF/JMM
AVIATION...21/JMM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page