498  
FXUS61 KCAR 221113  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
713 AM EDT THU AUG 22 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL  
EXIT ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
711 AM UPDATE...  
 
FOG AND DRIZZLE HAVE SET UP PER THE LATEST OBS AND SATL  
ANALYSIS. THE RAP SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THIS W/THE LLVL MOISTURE  
TUCKED UNDER AN INVERSION. THE FOG AND DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO  
LIFT/BURN OFF LATER THIS MORNING W/THE NORTHERN AREAS BEING THE  
LAST TO CLEAR OUT. ADJUSTED THE HRLY TEMPS AND WX ELEMENT TO  
KEEP THE FOG/DRIZZLE. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
SCTD TSTMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
THE EARLY EVENING.  
 
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWED BATCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE  
EASTERN AREAS PUSHING INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. ANOTHER BATCH OF  
SHOWERS AND SCTD TSTMS IN QUEBEC WERE MOVING TO ENE. THE LATEST  
HRRR SHOWED THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO A MORE  
STABLE AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. LOW CLOUDS  
AND FOG AROUND THIS MORNING LOOKS TO HOLD IN THROUGH AT LEAST  
MID MORNING, BEFORE STARTING TO LIFT AND BREAK OUT. THE LATEST  
RAP AND HRRR SHOW THE WARM FRONT LIFTING TO THE N BY LATE  
MORNING W/THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS BREAKING INTO THE  
WARM SECTOR W/SOME HEATING. THIS WILL HELP TO ALLOW FOR  
DESTABILIZATION AS SFC WINDS VEER TO THE SW. FURTHER N, AIRMASS  
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO DESTABILIZE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE  
QUICKLY INTO THE LOW/MID 80S.  
 
A BLEND OF THE NAM/RAP AND HRRR SHOWS A PRE-FRONTAL TROF OUT  
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION BY THE  
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP  
ACROSS THE N AND W AND THE MIGRATE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO  
THE EVENING. THE AREAS TO FOCUS ON FOR ANY ORGANIZED TSTM  
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM THE HOULTON- MILLINOCKET REGION DOWN  
INTO HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY. CAPE POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY  
MUCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 800-1200 JOULES.  
0-3/0-6KM SHEAR 30+ KTS W/A STRONG UPPER JET MOVING ACROSS THE  
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES IN THE LLVLS DO STEEPEN TO >  
8.0 C/KM IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS ALONG W/MID LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES HITTING NEAR 6.5 C/KM. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO AID IN  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SUFFICIENT UPDRAFTS. GIVEN THE LACK OF  
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE THROUGH 700 MBS, THINKING IS THAT ANY NEAR  
SEVERE TSTMS WILL BE ISOLD. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG WIND  
GUSTS AND THIS WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. SPC HAS  
THIS REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS.  
 
THE ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN AFTER 9 PM W/THE COLD FRONT SLIDING  
ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL START FILTERING  
INTO THE REGION W/WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WNW. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF  
ON MENTION OF FOG AS THE BLYR WILL STAYED MIXED. OVERNIGHT TEMPS  
WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN READINGS ATTM THIS  
MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE COLD UPPER TROUGH AND BUILDING SURFACE HIGH FROM CANADA WILL  
BE THE DOMINANT FEATURES. TEMPERATURES IN THIS REGIME WILL BE  
COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH LOW HUMIDITY AS DEW POINTS FALL INTO THE  
40S IN NORTHERN ZONES. EXPECT A DECENT AMOUNT OF CUMULUS CLOUDS  
ON FRIDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FAIRLY LOW TOPPED SHOWERS...TO  
AROUND 600MB...ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL ONLY PAINT POPS IN  
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND THE NORTH WOODS AT THIS TIME. THE UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD...MOSTLY IN  
NORTHERN ZONES...BUT NOT INCLUDE POPS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW  
SPRINKLES. ON SATURDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GENERATE MORE  
CLOUD COVER THAN FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SPRINKLES  
ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, THE COLD AIR MASS  
WILL BE FULLY IN PLACE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS IN  
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN ZONES AND  
FROST IS NOT TOTALLY OUT OF QUESTION. FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS  
BANGOR, LOWS WON'T BE A CHILLY WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S  
ANTICIPATED. PATCHY RIVER/LAKE FOG WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THIS PERIOD IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO FEATURE FAIR WEATHER UNDER  
A BUILDING BLOCKING RIDGE. AS THE BLOCK EVOLVES INTO A REX  
BLOCK, THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE CLOSED UPPER LOW  
MIGRATING UNDER THE BLOCK WILL END UP, BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY  
SIGNIFICANT POPS NOW. DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED TROUGH TOWARDS  
THE COAST WOULD BE THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. TEMPERATURES WILL  
SLOWLY RECOVER TOWARDS NORMAL READINGS BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.  
NIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
NIGHTS WITH THIS DRY CANADIAN AIR MASS. THE BLOCK BREAKS DOWN  
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A WARM OCCLUSION WILL EVENTUALLY  
CROSS THE AREA BY THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: IFR/LIFR THIS MORNING W/STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS THE  
AIR FIELDS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB  
BY MID-LATE MORNING. THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL TAKE A BIT MORE  
TIME TO IMPROVE TO VFR TIL EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIMIT THE  
TSTM THREAT NORTH OF KPQI. SOUTH OF KPQI, TSTMS MAY CONTAIN  
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 40+ KTS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW AT 10  
KTS OR SO.  
 
VFR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT W/SOME PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING WHICH  
COULD BRING VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR BRIEFLY. ANY FOG SHOULD CLEAR OUT  
W/WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WNW.  
 
SHORT TERM:  
THURSDAY NIGHT...CHANCE OF IFR ALONG THE COAST IN THE  
EVENING...OTHERWISE VFR  
 
FRIDAY...VFR  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...MVFR CIGS TEMPO IFR CIGS  
NORTH OF HUL...OTHERWISE VFR  
 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY...VFR OUTSIDE OF PATCHY SHALLOW  
FOG AROUND SUNRISE  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: S WINDS TO TURN TO THE SW THIS AFTERNOON W/SPEEDS OF  
10 KTS OR SO. DENSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE  
WINDS INCREASE. THERE IS A RISK OF A TSTM OR TWO INTO EARLY  
EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT  
MOVES INTO THE WATERS. SEAS OF 2 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 FT W/THE  
OUTER ZONES POSSIBLY REACHING 4 FT. LOCAL WAVE MODEL WAS USED  
FOR THE WINDS  
 
SHORT TERM: FOG WILL DEPART THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND  
PROBABLY NOT RETURN THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL  
PICK UP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS, BUT NO  
ADVISORY IS EXPECTED. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BE FORMING OVER  
THE ATLANTIC SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE  
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN, BUT  
HAS POTENTIAL TO CAUSE ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HEWITT  
SHORT TERM...MCW  
LONG TERM...MCW  
AVIATION...HEWITT/MCW  
MARINE...HEWITT/MCW  
 
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