715
FXUS61 KCAR 170937
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
537 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY DOWNEAST. LITTLE TO NO
DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED.
2) GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
3) ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY DOWNEAST.
LITTLE TO NO DROUGHT IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT DOWNEAST WILL BE COMING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WITH
A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND TRACKING EAST JUST OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE STEADIER
RAIN MAKES IT, BUT WE DO HAVE PRETTY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE
HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS WILL BE FROM BANGOR SOUTH. TOTALS COULD
REACH AROUND A HALF INCH, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING
BEING RIGHT ON THE COAST. NORTH OF BANGOR, LESS THAN A TENTH OF
AN INCH IS EXPECTED, WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING TO NEAR ZERO IN THE
FAR NORTH. THIS IS A QUICK-HITTING SYSTEM, WITH THE STEADY RAIN
ENDING BY ABOUT SUNRISE FRIDAY. THE FAR NORTH COULD HAVE A FEW
SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING/MIDDAY AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN AS
WELL, BUT TOTALS FROM THIS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH, IF ANY. OVERALL, LITTLE IF ANY IMPROVEMENT IN THE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2...GUSTY WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
COOLER AIR MOVING IN, WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, WILL LEAD
TO GUSTY WINDS OVER LAND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ANTICIPATING
MAX GUSTS 30-40 MPH, WITH ABOUT AN EQUAL THREAT AREAWIDE. THIS
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO LEAD TO ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. THE
PRIMARY THREAT IS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY FROM MID-MORNING TO
SUNSET.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS. TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME GUIDANCE DELAYING THE ONSET OF RAIN UNTIL
WELL INTO SUNDAY OR TAKES THE SYSTEM EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE. REGARDLESS, MINIMAL DROUGHT RELIEF IS EXPECTED WITH
EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS BELOW 0.2 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS DOWNEAST.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BEFORE 12Z TODAY...SHALLOW BUT LOCALLY DENSE FOG IMPACTING SOME
OF THE TERMINALS TO START THE DAY. ANTICIPATE THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE AND VFR TO PREVAIL BY ABOUT 12Z.
THURSDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, VFR. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS,
VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN VFR/MVFR LATE WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE OF RAIN. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS VFR PROBABLY BECOMING
MVFR. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN. VARIABLE WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS FOR
NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDY WITH NW WINDS 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS
25-35 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT... VFR. WINDS CALM AND VARIABLE.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR AT DOWNEAST TERMINALS. S WINDS BETWEEN 5 TO
12KTS, GUSTING TO NEAR 20KTS DOWNEAST. UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXACT
LOCATION AND TIMING OF RAIN EVENT.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR. S WINDS TURNING NW AROUND 8 TO 13
KTS.
MARINE
AREAS OF FOG OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW 5FT ACROSS ALL WATERS. NW WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND
15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT, REACHING 25KTS IN OUTER WATERS, ARE
EXPECTED IN COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN SSW ON
SATURDAY WHILE DIMINISHING. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL REMAIN BELOW
20KTS IN ALL WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TF/SM/MB
AVIATION...TF/SM/MB
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