220
FXUS61 KCAR 261159
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
659 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2021
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION BY THIS MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER
LOW WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ONTARIO TRACKING SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
7 AM UPDATE...
LOW STRATUS CONTS TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SOME
SIGNS OF IT ERODING ACRS SRN AREAS. EXPECT DOWNEAST WL BE
MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS CLDY.
TEMPS DID NOT DROP OFF AS LOW AS FCSTD ACRS THE EAST AND ARE
STARTING OFF ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH TEMPS TO THE WEST STARTING
OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. OTHER THAN BRINGING TEMPS AND DWPTS
MORE IN LINE WITH REALITY, NO CHGS NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE HUDSON VLY OF NYS THIS MORNING
WITH NRLY FLOW ACRS CWA. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS ALLOWED LOW
STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT NRN AREAS SLIPPING SOUTH TWD
DOWNEAST AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT CLDS TO RMN ACRS THE NORTH WHILE DISSIPATING OVER
DOWNEAST AFT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. TEMPS LIKELY TO START OFF IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ACRS THE NORTHWEST WITH LOW-TEENS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WL
REBOUND A FEW DEGREES ABV YESTERDAY'S MAXES WITH UPR 20S ACRS THE
NORTH TO LWR 30S OVER DOWNEAST.
NEXT SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OH VLY WL BEGIN TO APPCH NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. WARM ADVECTION SNOW WL APPROACH THE CWA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW WL BE VERY LIGHT THRU THE
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST OVER A DUSTING ACRS WRN AREAS AS MOISTURE BEGINS
TO RUN INTO DRY RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVER NB LATER TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 250HPA JET STREAK CLIPS THE AREA. LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. LIGHT WINDS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY, A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR JAMES
BAY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. A
SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE HEIGHT IS NOTED
ON GUIDANCE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA, WHERE THE IMPINGEMENT OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE. WHILE THE CORE OF THE UPPER
LOW AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MISS THE AREA,
OCCASIONAL SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LIFT AND
MOISTURE ALONG ITS NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. WHILE QPF IS LIMITED,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A FLUFFY, HIGH SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIO SNOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME CAPE AND LIFT WITHIN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FORMATION OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT POSITIONING OF THIS
MESOSCALE FEATURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF MAINLY AN
INCH OR LESS, EXCEPT ACROSS COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH STRONG NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STRONG
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE HUDSON SEA AND NORTHERN
QUEBEC INDICATIVE OF A LACK OF UPSTREAM ARCTIC AIR. LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND BY
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOWS MAY BE LOWER
THAN ADVERTISED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS IF CLOUDS CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES
THE SYSTEM. GIVEN TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES, NBM POPS WERE REDUCED TO
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING A CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. AS
THE SURFACE RIDGES PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AS SHOWN ON SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT IS THE NEXT REAL THREAT FOR ANY
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: IFR AT FVE THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN AFTER 20Z. CAR,
PQI AND HUL BEGINS AT MVFR, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR AND
DIMINISHING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR AFTER 03Z.
DOWNEAST TERMINALS LIKELY TO SEE FEW-SCT025 THIS MORNING. MVFR
CIGS MOVE IN AFTER 04Z WITH IFR BY 08Z IN LIGHT SNOW.
SHORT TERM: WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LIGHT SNOW MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.
BREEZY NW WINDS.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN
MAINE. VFR DOWNEAST. MODESTLY BREEZY NW WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT REMAIN
NEAR 20KTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT STILL UNDER SCA
LEVELS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 2 FEET OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GUSTS PEAKING NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY.
VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES WITH SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...FARRAR
SHORT TERM...MSTRAUSER
LONG TERM...MSTRAUSER
AVIATION...FARRAR/MSTRAUSER
MARINE...FARRAR/MSTRAUSER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page