931
FXUS61 KCAR 012342
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
742 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
740 PM UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
- PRECIPITATION TOTALS HAVE DECREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY. SOME
DROUGHT RELIEF IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY. SOME
DROUGHT RELIEF IS POSSIBLE, THOUGH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS ACROSS THE MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE
AN OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AN AREA OF RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND AN
UPPER LOW ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL HELP SUPPORT A DEVELOPING
LOW ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY. RAIN WILL OCCUR REGIONWIDE
THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL BEGIN TO CROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE THURSDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE EXACT TRACK IS STILL UNCERTAIN.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW EXITS ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY, WHILE THE UPPER
LOW CROSSES THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. THE
SURFACE/UPPER LOWS VERTICALLY STACK ACROSS THE MARITIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, SLOWING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM THEN
EXITS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD RECEIVE A SOAKING RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 1 INCH ARE BETWEEN 30%
AND 50%, ALTHOUGH THOSE CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY.
GENERALLY HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH, BUT WILL
DEPEND ON WHERE THE LOW SETS UP IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS. POSSIBLE PATCHY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING AT PQI. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE HUL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR FOR ALL TERMINALS. SE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
WED NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN BECOMING IFR/LIFR FOR SOUTH
TERMINALS AND MVFR/IFR FOR NORTH TERMINALS. RAIN WILL MOVE IN
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR.
RAIN AND PATCHY FOG. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THURSDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS,
BECOMING VARIABLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY...MVFR, OCCASIONAL IFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. VARIABLE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT,
THEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS,
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT TO WED
NIGHT. FOR TONIGHT, LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS
FROM THE E. THE E WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN
SHIFT SE WED NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 2-3 FT WED NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE NEAR SCA AND SEAS WILL BE AT SCA CRITERIA IN THE
COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY. SEAS WILL PEAK AROUND 4-6 FEET. WINDS
AND SEAS DECREASE BELOW SCA CRITERIA THURSDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SM/MB
AVIATION...21/ARL/SM/MB
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