711
FXUS61 KCAR 242330
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
630 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW TO REFLECT 0Z TAF PACKAGE
- ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY VALID UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY
- UPGRADED AREAS INCLUDING AND SOUTH OF CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS,
NORTHERN PENOBSCOT, AND SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTIES TO WINTER
STORM WARNINGS. A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHERN
PISCATAQUIS AND CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTIES. A WINTER STORM
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK AND NORTHERN
SOMERSET COUNTIES.
- INCREASED SNOW TOTALS FOR THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT STORM BASED ON A SLIGHT NORTHWARD SHIFT OF MODEL
GUIDANCE
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRIGID AIR MASS COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEKEND
2) HIGH CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS
OVER DOWNEAST MAINE
3) COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FRIGID AIR MASS COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS
WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AS OF MID-DAY TODAY, TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY STRUGGLING TO
REACH ABOVE 0 DEGREES AND WINDS REMAIN BREEZY RESULTING IN VERY
COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -25 DEGREES OVER THE NORTH. WINDS
WILL START TO RELAX THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST
BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA STARTS TO
DECREASE. HOWEVER, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL STILL BE JUST OFF
TO OUR WEST BY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT JUST OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE IS EXPRESSING HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A
LIGHT BREEZE OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD FAVOR SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL
MIXING. THIS SHOULD PREVENT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT WELL BELOW GUIDANCE, BUT IT WILL
MEAN WIND CHILLS REMAIN WELL BELOW ZERO, AS LOW AS -25 TO -35
OVER THE NORTH AND -15 TO -25 OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. GIVEN THAT
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY VALLEYS,
STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO EXPERIENCE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND THUS HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES IN THOSE PLACES SLIGHTLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HIGH CONFIDENCE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE MOST RECENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW THE TRACK
OF THE STORM SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH AND THUS FORECAST SNOW
TOTALS WERE INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHERN MAINE.
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN IN CENTRAL MAINE, THE BANGOR REGION, AND BAR
HARBOR SUNDAY EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE TRENDS, HOWEVER, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE ONSET IS
DELAYED AN HOUR OR TWO DUE TO AMPLE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
FROM THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH THAT WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. SNOW
SPREADS NORTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES WITH
FLAKES EXPECTED TO BE FALLING EVERYWHERE BY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TO BE IN DOWNEAST
MAINE BETWEEN JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY FAVORABLE PROFILES WITH
NEARLY ALL OF THE SATURATED LAYER BELOW 500MB IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. COMBINED WITH AMPLE LIFT IN THE LAYER THIS SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO VERY HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS EXCEEDING 20 TO 1
RESULTING IN VERY EFFICIENT, FLUFFY SNOWFALL.
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT NORTHERN SHIFT IN PROJECTED LOW TRACK
FOR THE STORM, AS SEEN ACROSS NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE SPREADS AND
WAS REFLECTED WITH THE NEWEST RUN OF THE NBM. THOUGH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION, WITH
OVER A FOOT OF SNOW LIKELY IN MANY AREAS, THERE IS NOW INCREASED
UNCERTAINTY IN SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
IF THE QPF GRADIENT ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE STORM IS TIGHT
ENOUGH, STORM TOTALS IN THE NORTH MAY ONLY REACH 2 TO 4 INCHES.
HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY IF THE NORTHERN TREND CONTINUES, HOWEVER
SLIGHT IT MAY BE, MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL QPF AMOUNTS MAY MAKE
THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN AROOSTOOK AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES, SUCH
THAT TOTALS MAKE A RUN FOR CLOSER TO 8 OR 9 INCHES. FOR THIS
REASON, A WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK AND
NORTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTIES. FURTHER NORTH, EVEN A CONTINUED
NORTHERN TREND WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH OF A SHIFT TO BRING
WARNING LEVEL SNOW, SO NORTHERN SOMERSET AND NORTHWEST AROOSTOOK
COUNTIES NOW HAVE AN ADVISORY HOISTED.
SNOW AMOUNTS DOWNEAST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN WARNING
LEVEL TOTALS, DO HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT NUMBERS. ASIDE
FROM QPF, DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE BIGGEST COMPLICATING FACTOR IS
THAT OF SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (SLRS). FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM
THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST VERY DEEP DGZ FOR AREAS DOWNEAST, WHICH
COULD RESULT IN SLRS SURPASSING 25:1, AND A VERY FLUFFY SNOW
THAT MAY EVEN AT TIMES TOP OUT OVER 30:1! THAT SAID, A LLJ WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, AND THE INCREASE TO
LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN DAMAGE TO CRYSTAL
STRUCTURE, LOWERING SLRS. WITH THIS FORECAST, STUCK WITH AROUND
20:1 RATIOS TO CONTINUE TO CAPTURE THE FLUFFY SNOW CHARACTER
WITHOUT CATCHING ONTO ANY EXTREME CASE AT THIS POINT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO
RUN AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO DOWNEAST AND AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH A SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEK,
ENOUGH WIND MAY EXIST SUCH THAT WIND CHILLS MAKE A RUN FOR
ADVISORY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. W WIND AROUND 10 KT TONIGHT WITH
A FEW HIGHER GUSTS, BECOMING LIGHT N TO NE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR DEVELOPING FROM S TO N ACROSS THE AREA
IN DEVELOPING SNOW. N TO NE WIND 10 TO 15 KT.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN
TERMINALS, AND PROBABLE FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS, THROUGH MONDAY
DUE TO SNOW. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TOWARDS MVFR MONDAY NIGHT.
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW BY KBHB/COASTAL TERMINALS.
WINDS NE 5 TO 15 KTS, SWITCHING TO THE NW OVERNIGHT. GUSTS 20 TO
25 KTS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH W WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS,
SHIFTING NW ON THURSDAY. GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
BELOW SCA WINDS ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ON THE COASTAL WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED THROUGH
ABOUT MID DAY SUNDAY WITH LIGHT/MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
GALE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE FINALLY TAPERING BELOW 35 KTS ON THE COASTAL WATERS.
INTRACOASTALS WILL HAVE GUSTS 25 TO 35 KTS THROUGH THIS TIME.
SEAS 6 TO 10 FT WITH THE SNOW STORM MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK ON THE COASTAL WATERS. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ON
MONDAY BECOMES MODERATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
FREEZING SPRAY REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ001>006-
010-011-015>017-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR MEZ001-003.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MEZ002-004.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
MEZ005-006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...AES/TWD/SM
AVIATION...AES/SM
MARINE...AES/SM
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