016
FXUS61 KCAR 082325
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
725 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
720 PM UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH
DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT
FEW HOURS DOWNEAST BEFORE PARTIAL CLEARING ALLOWS FOR SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
LATER TONIGHT. UPDATES WERE MADE TO FORECAST SKY COVER AND
TEMPERATURES, WHICH WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH FOR
TONIGHT. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO LOWER POPS AND THUNDER FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN TRENDS FOR DRIER AIR AND
LESS INSTABILITY IN THE 18Z GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY SHIFTED OFFSHORE, PULLING ANY
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE COAST AND LEAVING BEHIND CLOUDY
SKIES FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION THIS EVENING. THIS BAND OF
OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARDS MUCH
LIKE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND EXIT OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO DRIER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
AND TEMPERATURES LIFTING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MAY SETUP
TO THE WEST, LEADING TO SOME LOCAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING HOURS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST, INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. THAT SAID, WITH HOW SLOW THE
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN HAS BEEN PROGRESSING, THIS FEATURE MAY NOT
MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTH WOODS AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH MILD LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ON THURSDAY, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR
NORTHWEST IN QUEBEC BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
THIS WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK LOW-LEVEL COASTAL
LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE PRIMARILY LOW, AS INDICATED IN THE GFS,
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG THE
COAST. FORECASTING RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, ALONGSIDE A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BASED ON INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN
THUNDER IS LOW AT THIS TIME, AS MODEL TRENDS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT, WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS RELATIVELY LOW AND LAPSE
RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE. PWATS RANGE FROM 1-1.50 BASED ON GFS AND
NAM MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN TOTALS UNDER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH THROUGHOUT THE STATE. WINDS BECOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT ON
THURSDAY, BRINGING IN SOME WARMER AIR WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE, KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST. EASTERLY
WINDS KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE ALONG THE GULF OF MAINE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER.
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY, QUEBEC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD. OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S, TO LOW 60S. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
NORTH OF I-95. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S. VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CROWN OF MAINE
FROM DUE TO FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND A BIT OF CAPE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE AXIS MOVES OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING, BEFORE A LOW-PRESSURE TO THE
NORTHWEST BRINGS SOME SHORTWAVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.
ANOTHER LOW SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN
MAINE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, GENERALLY
INCREASING UP TO THE 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM:
DOWNEAST TERMINALS: VFR AT BGR THIS EVENING, MVFR AT BHB AND
COASTAL AIRPORTS THIS EVENING, BECOMING VFR LATER THIS EVENING.
IFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER
6Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
AROOSTOOK TERMINALS: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY
AT HUL WITH PATCHY FOG. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
ALL TERMINALS LIKELY TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SHORT TERM:
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE SE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS.
WINDS FROM THE SE AT 5-10 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, THAT
WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE S/SE.
SATURDAY–SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN TERMINALS IN RAIN SHOWERS.
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE S/SE.
SUNDAY... MVFR CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE S AT 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED BY PATCHY
FOG TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SEAS STAY AT OR BELOW 3 FT OVER THE
OUTER WATERS, AND AT OR BELOW 2 FT FOR THE INNER WATERS.
EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS ON THURSDAY, SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY
FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...STRAUSER
SHORT TERM...BRENNAN
LONG TERM...BRENNAN
AVIATION...STRAUSER/BRENNAN
MARINE...STRAUSER/BRENNAN
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