162
FXUS61 KCAR 262330
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
730 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
730 PM UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
2) THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME OF
WHICH MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHWEST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE REGIONWIDE THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BEGIN TO REACH NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS OF THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE REGION, WITH THE ADDED
SUPPORT OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH THE
TROUGH AROUND THAT TIME. CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY MORNING AND
REACH CENTRAL MAINE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD FOCUS THE AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS CENTRAL MAINE, EASTERN AROOSTOOK, AND FAR
INTERIOR DOWNEAST. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH INSTABILITY OF UP
TO 1500 J/KG AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS DRIVEN BY
ELONGATED, STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ALSO
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE WHICH IS TYPICALLY A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
OUR SEVERE THREAT. WHILE SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS THERE ARE STILL
SOME OUTSTANDING QUESTIONS THAT COULD MODIFY THE THREAT. FIRST,
HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER WILL BE LEFT OVER FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS
THE NIGHT BEFORE? THIS COULD CHANGE OUR LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS
AND INSTABILITY PROFILE. SECOND, WHERE EXACTLY WILL THE COLD
FRONT BE DURING THE AFTERNOON? THIS WILL DETERMINE WHERE STORMS
SET UP. THIRD, HOW FAR INLAND WILL THE MARINE LAYER PENETRATE?
THE FURTHER NORTH THE MARINE LAYER PENETRATES, THE LOWER THE
STORM RISK ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TONIGHT...VFR, THOUGH MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY
FOG LATE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THURSDAY...VFR. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE, VFR EARLY LOWERING TO
IFR/LIFR. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. S WINDS 5-10 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR EARLY. NW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
SATURDAY...VFR. W/NW WINDS 5-10KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY MVFR/IFR IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY...VFR/MVFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. PATCHY FOG RETURNS BRIEFLY EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SM/CN
AVIATION...21/SM/CN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page