484
FXUS61 KCAR 060026
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
726 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE
AREA FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE SATURDAY THEN ANOTHER
LOW WILL APPROACH LATE SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
UPDATE...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE THIS EVENING AND THEN INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA ON THURSDAY. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN
ACROSS THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST THIS EVENING, AND A RAIN
SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH, MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STEADIER PRECIPITATION WILL END
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD DAY BREAK
FOR THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST AREAS. THE MAIN STORY WILL
BE THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND BEHIND THE INTENSIFYING LOW ON
THURSDAY. WINDS MAY GUST AS HIGH AS 35 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.
SEE UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. AS OF THIS UPDATE, THE HIGH RES MODELS
SHOW THE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES ACROSS FROM W TO E
ACROSS THE COAST. THE PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS RAIN, BUT AS TEMPS
START TO COOL IN THE NORTH, RAIN WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH FROM
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO SNOW AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE IN THE NORTH WOODS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR THE SOUTH,
TEMPS WILL STAY WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP AS RAIN, THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IF THE TEMPS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS COOL ENOUGH. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP BAND WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DUE TO THE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE INTENSIFYING OF THE SYSTEM, IT SHOULD
MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA, THUS THE AMOUNTS OF SNOW IN THE
NORTH WILL BE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH AND RAIN AMOUNTS IN
THE SOUTH LESS THAN AN INCH. THE CONCERN WILL BE IN THE MORNING
HOURS OF THURSDAY WHERE THE WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE N AND
INCREASE BECOMING GUSTY. AS OF THIS UPDATE, WINDS ALONG THE
COAST WOULD BE THE CONCERN FOR THE GUSTIER WINDS, BUT THE UPPER
AIR MODEL SOUNDING SHOW WEAKER WIND MIXING DOWN FROM 850MB.
BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS, WINDS WILL START TO
DECREASE AND CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO THE EVENING. SURFACE
RIDGING WILL START TO MOVE IN A CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL DECREASE TO BREEZY W WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LAWRENCE PLUMES TO
DEVELOP EARLY IN THE NIGHT, SO INCLUDED ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LIGHT PRECIP. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE
REGION.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ON FRIDAY UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ALOFT MOVES IN OVERHEAD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA RELATIVELY QUICKLY AS A RESULT OF THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN AND BY THE EVENING A MODEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE W. AS THE WARM FRONT OF THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SNOW TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING AND SPREAD WEST TO
EAST. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION ZONE TO SET
UP ALONG A LINE FROM GREENVILLE TO HOULTON. SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY
TRANSITION TO ALL RAIN EVERYWHERE BY SATURDAY MORNING AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION OCCURS IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW. CURRENTLY
NOT EXPECTING ANY NOTABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION. WARM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING SHOULD KEEP SLRS RELATIVELY
LOW SO ONLY A SLUSHY COATING AT MOST IS POSSIBLE. RAIN CLEARS
OUT ON SATURDAY ASIDE FROM A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE WEAK HIGH EXITS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AS A DEEP UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE EASTERN US. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE MIDWEST AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS MAINE DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY WHILE STRENGTHENING. ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL EXPRESSING CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN REGARDS TO HOW THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES BUT HAVE GENERALLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE
SOME SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA. SOME SOLUTIONS TAKE THE LOW TO
OUR NORTH WHILE SOME KEEP IT JUST OFFSHORE IN THE GULF OF MAINE.
THE NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD MEAN MUCH OF THE AREA WOULD LIKELY BE
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND RECEIVE RAIN WHILE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
WOULD ALLOW MORE COLD AIR TO STAY IN PLACE, POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN MORE SNOW. THE GEFS AND EPS SHOW MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTIONS
WHILE THE EPS-AI SHOWS MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ALSO
SOME THREAT OF A WIND IMPACT, ESPECIALLY WITH A MORE NORTHERLY
TRACK, AS MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WHICH COULD CREATE GUSTY WINDS IF MIXED TO THE SURFACE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR EARLY THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR 02Z TO 05Z TONIGHT IN RAIN/SNOW NORTH AND RAIN SOUTH.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY, AND
THEN VFR BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT
BECOMING NW 15 TO 25 KT WITH G35 TO 40KT THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WIND.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR OVER THE NORTH LATE. W
WIND BECOMING SW WIND AROUND 10 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR DROPPING TO IFR. S/SE WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
SATURDAY...IFR, IMPROVING TO MVFR THEN VFR. W/SW WIND 10 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND AROUND 5 KT.
SUNDAY...VFR, LOWERING TO MVFR THEN IFR LATE. E WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR LIKELY. E WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
MONDAY...IFR, IMPROVING TO MVFR. W/SW WIND 5 TO 10 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL DECREASE TO SCA LEVELS BY
THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS 5-8 FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT TO SCA CRITERIA. SEAS UP TO 9 FT AND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS
ON THE OUTER WATERS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS
DECREASE ON SATURDAY WITH SEAS EVENTUALLY GOING BELOW SCA
CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA
SUNDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF GALES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ052.
NEAR TERM...TWD/SM
SHORT TERM...ARL
LONG TERM...ARL
AVIATION...TWD/SM/ARL
MARINE...TWD/SM/ARL
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