252
FXUS61 KCAR 221154
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
654 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS, MOSTLY CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH A WARM FRONT THEN
APPROACHING LATE. EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS TODAY, WITH SCATTERED MORNING FLURRIES ALSO
POSSIBLE. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DOWNEAST TODAY. THE WARM
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL
TROF THEN APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATE. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE TONIGHT. WILL ALSO HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S NORTH, TO AROUND 30 TO THE LOWER 30S
DOWNEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL OCCUR EARLY, THEN
STABILIZE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 10 NORTH, TO 10 TO 15 INTERIOR DOWNEAST
WITH MID TEENS ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ONGOING EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING, AS AN INITIAL SHORT WAVE/WEAK SURFACE TROF
CROSSES THE REGION. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY
MID TO LATE MORNING BEFORE MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
BY AFTERNOON, IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
QUEBEC. THE ACTUAL FRONT, BASED ON THE THERMAL PACKING, SHOULD
BE APPROACHING THE CROWN OF MAINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SUNDAY
EVENING. THE SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILTY DEVELOPING AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS TOOL HINTS AT SOME
POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AROOSTOOK. BUT CURRENT THINKING
IS PROBABLY JUST A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, AS OPPOSED TO SQUALLS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING, WITH
PERHAPS SOME PATCHY STRATOCU CLOUDS. LOWS WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 5
BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND 5 TO 10 ABOVE FOR THE BANGOR REGION
AND DOWNEAST AREAS. BY EARLY MONDAY, THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OUT
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO INCREASE
DURING MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE,
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
HIGHS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 30 ACROSS
THE NORTH AND LOW/MID 30S FOR THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
WEAK WARM FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH A PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. LOOK LIKE THE STEADIER SNOW SHOULD END BY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH AREA IN WARM SECTOR. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH THE EC KEEPING
THE AREA DRY. BUT THE GFS BRINGS A SHORT WAVE TOWARD THE AREA
WITH SNOW/RAIN. TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, MAINLY CLOUDY
SKIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS AND THEN
MAINLY DRY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH APPROACHES MID TO LATE WEEK. AT TIME, DOESN'T APPEAR AS
IF THERE WILL BE NORTHERN/SOUTHERN STREAM PHASING TO BRING ANY
BIG STORMS TO NORTHERN MAINE THROUGH LATE WEEK BUT STAY TUNED.
FOR NOW, LOADED THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) POPS FOR THE
MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE NEAR, OR A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, VFR/MVFR WITH SCATTERED
FLURRIES THIS MORNING. VFR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
VFR/MVFR LATE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, VFR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST/SOUTHWEST AROUND
10 KNOTS TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
SUN...MVFR AT THE AROOSTOOK TERMINALS IN SCT SNOW SHOWERS. VFR
KBGR/KBHB.
SUN NIGHT-MON...VFR.
MON NIGHT-TUE NIGHT... MVFR OR LOWER IN LIGHT SNOW/RAIN MIX.
LLWS POSSIBLE.
WED...VFR.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE
WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, THROUGH
1 PM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT. ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM: COULD BE A FEW GUSTS AROUND 25 KT EARLY SUNDAY,
OTHERWISE WINDS/SEAS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY, THEN
WINDS/SEAS COULD APPROACH SCA MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN
BELOW SCA MID WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-
051.
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...TWD
LONG TERM...TWD
AVIATION...NORCROSS/TWD
MARINE...NORCROSS/TWD
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