636
FXUS61 KCAR 312135
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
535 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020
SYNOPSIS
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO
MONDAY AND SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT, LIFT TO THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT, SLIDING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
520 PM UPDATE: NO SIG CHGS THIS UPDATE WITH MOST FCST ELEMENTS
REFLECTING CURRENT CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE, FCST HRLY TEMPS/DWPTS
WERE UPDATED INTO THE OVRNGT HRS FROM OBSVD AFTN HI TEMPS AND
LATEST HRLY SFC OBS. CONCERNS WITH REGARD TO THE CURRENT
FROST/FREEZE HDLNS IN EFFECT FOR NRN/WRN PTNS OF THE FA LATE
TNGT IS HOW MUCH CLRG DO WE GET FROM THE CURRENT SC/CU CLD CVR
OVR THE RGN XTNDG FROM QB AND WHETHER WINDS WILL DECOUPLE
ENOUGH FOR SIG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
PREV DISC: FOR TONIGHT, EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING
WIND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. COLD AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TOWARDS MINUS 5C AND
925MB TEMPS DROPPING TOWARDS 0C IN NORTHERN ZONES. THE
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS PROMPTS FROST AND FREEZE WARNINGS FOR
ALL OF THE AREA EXCEPT DOWNEAST. THE SHALLOW INVERSION WILL BE
QUICKLY ELIMINATED MONDAY MORNING. A COLD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OVER THE AREA WITH SOME VERY HIGH BASED CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. THERE'S A VERY MODEST LAYER OF CAPE UP TO
AROUND 700 MB. HOWEVER, THE AIR IS SO DRY THAT IT'S HARD TO
ENVISION EVEN A SPRINKLE REACHING THE SURFACE AND WILL NOT GO
WITH POPS. IN SPITE OF THE DEEP MIXED LAYER AND STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, THERE'S NOT MUCH WIND TO MIX DOWN, BUT DID USE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO MIX DOWN LOWER DEW POINTS FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY WHILE REACHING THE LOWER 60S FOR BANGOR AND
THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE KEEPING THINGS DRY.
MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BASICALLY BE CLOUD FREE AS A RESULT. COUPLED
WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SHOULD HAVE ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH FROST
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE
PENOBSCOT/BANGOR REGION AND POSSIBLY INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON
COUNTY. DEPENDING ON FUTURE REFINEMENTS TO THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST, SOME COMBINATION OF FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES COULD
BE NEEDED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS REGION. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT, BUT STILL
AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
AFTER A SUNNY START, SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
IMPINGE UPON THE REGION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE BANGOR REGION AND
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH MORE ENERGY IN THE SOUTHERN VICE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
SHORTWAVE. AS A RESULT HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK TUESDAY NIGHT, WHERE POPS ARE LIMITED TO SLIGHT
CHANCE. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
THE REGION SHOULD BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
THE ONE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING INTO WESTERN QUEBEC/EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. DO HAVE SOME LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE (CHANCE
FAR DOWNEAST) POPS TO START WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THE DAY
SHOULD END UP MAINLY, IF NOT ENTIRELY DRY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
THE REGION IS THEN UNDER W, THEN WSW FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. WHILE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES IS CHALLENGING FOR
THE MODELS THIS FAR OUT, IT DOES APPEAR, AT THIS TIME, THAT
OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON THURSDAY MORNING, THAT THE
REGION SHOULD BE DRY THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
A FULL LATITUDE DEEP LAYER TROUGH APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY, BRING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER AWAY FROM THE COAST ON SATURDAY).
A MEAN TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WITH DRYING IN THE LOW LEVELS, AFTER POSSIBLY SOME EVENING
SHOWERS, THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE FROM NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BEFORE
RETURNING TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCELLENT VIS ARE EXPECTED. AFTER
THIS AFTERNOON'S CLOUDS DISSOLVE, NO CIGS UNDER 5000 FT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM:
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR TO MVFR NORTH WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE KBGR/KBHB.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON-FRIDAY...VFR, EXCEPT MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS
EVENING AS SEAS SLOWLY DECREASE FROM AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET TO
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM:
A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW FOR GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, BUT SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
REMAINS LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS A RESULT, GENERALLY EXPECT, AFTER
POSSIBLY SOME 20 KT GUSTS TUESDAY EVENING, WINDS 10 KT OR LESS AND
SEAS REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
MEZ002-005-006-010-011-015-031-032.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
MEZ001-003-004.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...MALOIT
AVIATION...VJN/MALOIT
MARINE...VJN/MALOIT
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