333
FXUS61 KCAR 262338
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
738 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING.
- INCREASED FOG COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR DOWNEAST.
- RAISED PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY TO AROUND 80 PERCENT FOR
CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING, GIVING WAY TO AREAS OF
DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS FOG WILL SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. AFTER THE
FOG DISSIPATES TOMORROW MORNING, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
2) A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEARLY EVERY AFTERNOON FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ALL-DAY RAINFALLS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
3) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND INCREASINGLY
MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING, GIVING WAY
TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT. THIS FOG WILL SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY AND RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
AFTER THE FOG DISSIPATES TOMORROW MORNING, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A 500MB UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS INTO NEW BRUNSWICK THIS
EVENING BRINGING AN END TO SHOWERS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE SUNSET ACROSS THE MOOSEHEAD REGION
TO BANGOR REGION. SHOWERS TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOWEST PART OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS
WINDS GO CALM TONIGHT AND THE TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE ELEVATED
DEW POINT EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP. AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT
FOG MAY BECOME DENSE TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS. WILL MESSAGE
THAT TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS IN AREAS THAT SEE THE LOW
VISIBILITIES TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR THE TREND THIS EVENING FOR A
POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOG WILL LIFT WITH THE SUN ANGLE
INCREASING TOMORROW AND CLOUDS GRADUALLY LIFT LEADING TO BREAKS
IN THE AFTERNOON. THE 500MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
PIVOT WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER THE AREA. AS DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS EXPECT SOME BUBBLE UP CU THAT WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE
ACROSS THE MOOSEHEAD REGION TO BAXTER REGION THAT MAY IMPACT
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. IT WILL BE WARMER TOMORROW WITH MORE
SUNSHINE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS NEARLY EVERY
AFTERNOON FROM SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, ALL-DAY RAINFALLS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS FAIRLY NUMEROUS,
ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WE WILL BE
UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT, WITH A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH WHICH
SHOULD HELP SPARK THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS ENOUGH THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE. DIDN'T INCLUDE ANY ENHANCED WORD SUCH AS HAIL OR WIND
GUSTS INTO THE FORECAST FOR NOW, BUT IT'S SOMETHING TO WATCH.
CAMS DO DIFFER SOME ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY THERE WILL BE.
MONDAY LOOKS A BIT QUIETER FOR CONVECTION, WITH PROBABLY JUST
AN ISOLATED SHOWER DOWNEAST. HOWEVER, AS AIRMASS MOISTENS FROM
TUESDAY ON, THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASES.
ALSO, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO
OUR WEST AND WE WILL BE UNDER FAIRLY UNSTABLE NW FLOW ALOFT,
AND WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A MUGGY AIRMASS, THIS IS A
VERY GOOD PATTERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT SOME POINT TUESDAY TO
FRIDAY. HARD TO TELL WHICH DAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE STORMS, BUT THIS IS DEFINITELY A PATTERN TO WATCH OUT
FOR.
KEY MESSAGE 3...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
IN ADDITION TO THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, THE HEAT IS
ANOTHER THING TO WATCH OUT FOR. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
JUST HOW WARM IT WILL GET, BUT AT THE LEAST WE WILL BE LOOKING
AT LOW TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR LOW.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, AS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE HEAT WILL STILL BE
BUILDING. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PLACES GETTING UP TO AROUND 90
DEGREES WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, IT WILL BE QUITE
MUGGY AND IF WE GET AIR TEMPERATURES UP CLOSE TO 90, HEAT
INDICES WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH
IS 95. RIGHT NOW, FOR EACH DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE
CHANCE OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (95 HEAT INDEX) IS
10-20 PERCENT, HIGHEST IN THE AREA FROM BANGOR TO DOVER-FOXCROFT.
THE CHANCE OF REACHING HEAT ADVISORY AT ANY POINT WEDNESDAY TO
FRIDAY IS 25-50 PERCENT. IN ADDITION, NIGHTTIME LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE MILD AND THOSE WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING WILL
REALLY START FEELING THE EFFECTS LATER IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TONIGHT...AROOSTOOK COUNTY TERMS MVFR/IFR CIGS. AREAS OF IFR FG.
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM.
KBGR...DETERIORATING TO IFR AFTER 03Z WITH CIGS DROPPING TO 500
FEET AND VSBY DOWN TO 2SM IN BR BY 6Z. TEMPO 07-11Z FOR LIFR
FG. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND 5 KT OR LESS. AT KBHB IFR/LIFR
CIGS WITH VSBY DROPPING TO 1SM. TEMPO FOR FG 07-11Z THAT MAY BE
DOWN TO 1/4MI. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
TOMORROW...AROOSTOOK COUNTY TERMINALS IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN AM
DUE TO FG/BR IMPROVING TO WIDESPREAD MVFR BY 12Z. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z TO 17Z WITH CIGS LIFTING. WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. KBGR AM LOW CIGS AND BR IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 13Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 17Z. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. AT
KBHB LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FG IMPROVING TO MVFR AFTER 13Z
AS CIGS LIFT. VFR EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: AREAS OF MVFR/IFR IN THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM FOG. BEST CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR IS CLOSER TO THE COAST, BUT THE
POSSIBILITY WILL EXIST ANYWHERE. GENERALLY VFR MIDDAY TO EVENING
HOURS EXCEPT FOR IN HEAVY SHOWERS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS EVERY DAY EXCEPT MONDAY. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
MARINE
THROUGH MIDWEEK, EXPECTING WINDS LESS THAN 15KT OVER THE WATERS
25-60NM AND SEAS 2-3FT. WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
INTRA-COASTAL AND COASTAL WATERS. FOG WILL REDUCE VSBY LESS THAN
1NM AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK ON ALL THE WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TF/JS
AVIATION...TF/JS/VO
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