979
FXUS61 KCAR 220028
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
728 PM EST WED JAN 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
-INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
-ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY PM THROUGH
FRIDAY AM.
-AN EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
-LOW CHANCE OF A WINTER STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AM TO MAKE FOR SLIPPERY
TRAVEL FOR THURSDAY AM COMMUTE.
- SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND LIKELY ON FRIDAY.
- FRIGID ARCTIC AIR BRINGS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THIS
WEEKEND.
- LOW CHANCE OF A WINTER STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT TO SOUTHERN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AM TO MAKE FOR
SLIPPERY TRAVEL FOR THURSDAY AM COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AM ALONG A TRIPLE POINT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER
SYSTEM IN QUEBEC. EXPECTING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY. STEADY SNOW WILL TAPER
IN THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECTING 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE BANGOR
REGION, SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK TO THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH 1-3 INCHES
NORTH OF THERE IN AROOSTOOK CLOSER TO THE BORDER WITH NEW
BRUNSWICK. THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE NORTH WOODS
WHERE A DUSTING TO 1 INCH IS POSSIBLE AND THIS INCLUDES THE
MOOSEHEAD REGION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE THINGS A LITTLE
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT BUT MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AND FLUFFY
AND GIVEN THE COLD GROUND EXPECTING NO SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND LIKELY ON
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A TON OF UNCERTAINTY ON THURSDAY ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS OR POTENTIALLY SQUALLS. A WEAKER SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW UNSTABLE THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE MORNING WILL BE OVERCAST
AND THE FRONT STRENGTH IS QUESTIONABLE. HI-RES CAMS THIS
AFTERNOON ARE SHOWING A LITTLE BIT STEEPER LAPSE RATES, THE
RRFS/NAM3KM/HRRR, WHILE THE GLOBALS STILL STRUGGLING ON HOW
UNSTABLE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE. FOR NOW DID RAISE POPS
HIGHER THAN NBM AND BLENDED IN MUCH OF THE CAMS TO FOCUS THE
GREATEST HEAVY SNOW SHOWER AND SQUALL RISK TO THE NORTH.
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY LIES IN HOW MUCH WIND CAN MIX DOWN AS
MUCH OF THE MODELED SOUNDINGS SHOW 25-30KT AVAILABLE IN THE
GLOBALS WITH HI-RES SHOWING 25-40KT. THE BTV SNOW SQUALL
PARAMETER HAS SIGNIFICANTLY JUMPED UP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE
LATEST HI-RES MODELS WHILE REMAINING 1-2 WITH THE GLOBAL
MODELS. HAVE MESSAGED IN SOCIAL MEDIA AND HWO ABOUT THE THREATS
OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS.
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE ON FRIDAY AS AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW SQUALLS MAY BEGIN IN THE NORTH WOODS AROUND
MID-DAY BEFORE SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
CURRENTLY EXPECTING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS TO BE
IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, NORTH WOODS, AND AROOSTOOK COUNTY AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL
BE. STILL, SOME STRONG SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A SNOW SQUALL
OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH. CURRENTLY EXPECTING THIS TO
BE ONE OF THE HIGHER END SNOW SQUALL EVENTS OF THE WINTER SO FAR
AS MODELS SHOW AMPLE INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 100 J/KG IN SOME
NORTHERN AREAS, SUFFICIENT LIFT FROM A COLD FRONT, DECENT
MOISTURE, AND A DEEP MIXED LAYER UP TO ABOUT 650MB WITH WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH THAT COULD EASILY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...FRIGID ARCTIC AIR BRINGS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY, ARCTIC
AIR WILL GET FUNNELED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE
COLD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING A
WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHERE LOWS MAY DIP
TO NEAR -20 IN THE NORTH AND NEAR -10 FURTHER SOUTH. SOME AREAS
COULD EVEN GET COLDER IF WINDS STAY LIGHT AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR. HOWEVER, THE PERIOD OF GREATEST WIND CHILLS IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, REACHING AS LOW AS -40 IN
NORTHERN MAINE AND -25 FURTHER SOUTH. THIS IS DUE TO A PRESSURE
GRADIENT PERSISTING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEPARTS OVER THE MARITIMES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY BUT
WILL STILL BE VERY COLD, POSSIBLY NOT GETTING ABOVE 0 IN THE NORTH,
AND WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -
25 DEGREES. SLIGHTLY WARMER SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND LIGHTER WINDS. REMEMBER THAT EXPOSURE TO THESE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.
KEY MESSAGE 4...LOW CHANCE OF A WINTER STORM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST THREAT TO SOUTHERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE INITIALLY POSITIONED IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
REDEVELOPS OFFSHORE AND MOVES NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. ENSEMBLES EMPHASIZE THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
WHEN AND IF SUCH A STORM REACHES US. A LARGE MARGIN OF MEMBERS
KEEP THE SYSTEM WELL OFFSHORE BUT SOME BRING IT INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE RESULTING IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY IN THE
BANGOR AND DOWNEAST REGIONS. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER US ON
SUNDAY AS A STRONGER HIGH WILL KEEP THE STORM FURTHER FROM OUR
AREA.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR/MVFR EARLY TONIGHT THEN LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL
LIFR, WITH DEVELOPING SNOW. MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR, EARLY
THURSDAY WITH SNOW TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS. VARIABLE
CONDITIONS WITH SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
VFR/MVFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
TONIGHT. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR KHUL/KBGR/KBHB
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS BUT LOW POTENTIAL OF FEW-SCT MVFR CIGS
NORTH. W WINDS 5-15KT.
FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR NORTH WITH MAINLY VFR SOUTH. BRIEF IFR WITH
ANY SNOW SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR BLOWING SNOW AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS. CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
ON FRIDAY AT ALL TERMINALS BUT ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
SOUTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR NORTH. VFR DOWNEAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30
KNOTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR BY
MORNING AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH LIGHT SNOW. VFR/MVFR
NORTHERN TERMINALS. LIGHT N/NW WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT, INCREASING TO
5 TO 10 KTS MONDAY.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH 7PM FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
UNTIL 1PM THURSDAY THEN A GALE WATCH FROM 1PM THURSDAY THROUGH
7AM FRIDAY. FOR THE SCA SW WINDS 15-25KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO
35KT AND SEAS 6-9FT. FOR THE GALE WATCH, W WINDS 20-30KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 45KT AND SEAS 7-10FT.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GALES FRIDAY WITH THE PEAK WINDS FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE DECREASING BELOW GALE CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS INCREASE
ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SEAS PEAK
AT 6 TO 10 FT FRIDAY NIGHT AND DECREASE TO 2 TO 4 FT BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...SM/JS
AVIATION...CN/SM/JS
MARINE...SM/JS
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