230
FXUS61 KCAR 262320
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
620 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN OCCLUDED FRONT PASSING TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE THEN TRACKS
ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN MARITIMES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN ON MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
6:20 P.M. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION TO REFLECT BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIFTING CEILINGS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
-RAIN, DRIZZLE, AND PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
-MOSTLY CLEAR AND BREEZY THANKSGIVING DAY WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
THE TRIPLE POINT OF THE OCCLUSION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FOR THIS EVENING, UPPER
AIR MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN AREA OF DRY AIR AT THE MID
LEVELS MOVING IN AFTER SUNSET. THE LOWER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
MOIST, CREATING DRIZZLE AND PATCHY FOG. LATER TONIGHT, RAIN
RETURNS AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE
NORTH WOODS WILL SEE MORE SNOW THAN RAIN DUE TO THE COOLER
AIRMASS MOVING IN. BY THURSDAY, THE PRECIP WILL EXIT TO THE
NORTH, WHICH WILL CLEAR OUT SOME CLOUDS. AS THE OCCLUSION STARTS
TO WRAP BACK TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
TIGHTEN MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY. SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ON THE WRAP AROUND WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE PRECIP TYPE WILL DEPEND ON THE TEMPS, SO MAINLY ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NORTH. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THESE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
IN THE NORTH. AROUND MIDNIGHT IS WHEN THE SHOWERS WILL END WITH
THE DECREASING OF INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AND
DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE 20S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY MESSAGE...
-POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THAT
COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT TRAVEL IN THE NORTH.
FRIDAY...AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST, SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND IN THE NORTH PRIMARILY NORTH OF
LINCOLN. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT SNOW SHOWERS AROUND
THAT COULD BRIEFLY WHITEN ROADS MAINLY IN THE NORTH, DON'T
ANTICIPATE ENOUGH ACTIVITY FOR SNOW SQUALL WARNINGS. THIS IS
BECAUSE THERE ISN'T QUITE ENOUGH WIND AND THE ATMOSPHERE ISN'T
QUITE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR SHOWERS TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO CREATE
GUSTS TO SQUALL CRITERIA. ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY SHOULD BE UNDER AN INCH.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WHILE WE CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS, MOST PLACES SHOULD BE DRY FRI NIGHT/SAT. WIND
GRADUALLY SHIFTING FROM SW TO W AND REMAINING BREEZY AS COLDER
AIR MOVES IN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST.
HIGHS SATURDAY SHOULD BE 5-10F COOLER THAN FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S FAR NORTH TO MID TO UPPER 30S
DOWNEAST.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES...
-LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
-POSSIBILITY OF A STRONGER STORM LATE TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXITS TO THE EAST
SUNDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN. THIS SYSTEM WILL COME AS A
SURFACE LOW PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST WELL TO OUR NORTH, BUT WE
COULD SEE A WEAK TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA. MODELS
ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM, THOUGH THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE SNOW IS ABLE TO CHANGE TO RAIN TOWARD THE TAIL
END. THE START TIME OF THE EVENT HAS MOVED UP SOME, MEANING
THOSE WITH TRAVEL INTERESTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD BE
IMPACTED. PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO DEVELOP ROUGHLY 1-5PM SUNDAY
FROM WEST TO EAST. BANGOR LOOKS CLOSE TO THE RAIN/SNOW LINE AT
FIRST, WHILE MOST AREAS NORTH OF LINCOLN SHOULD FAVOR SNOW AT
THE ONSET. AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY EVENING, THE SNOW SHOULD
CHANGE TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, WITH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE
PERHAPS MAKING IT NORTH TO SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HOULTON AND FORT
KENT BY THE TIME IT ENDS IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE A QUICK HITTER, AND BEST ESTIMATE AT THIS
POINT IS 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME SPOTS REACHING
3-5 INCHES IF SOME OF THE COLDER/WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS PAN OUT.
VERY CHILLY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WITH LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT DROPPING TO 0-10F IN THE NORTH AND IN THE TEENS DOWNEAST.
THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A BREAK BETWEEN THE PRECIPITATION
ENDING AND THE REALLY COLD TEMPS THAT FLASH FREEZING OF ROADS IS
UNLIKELY.
NEXT FOCUS TURNS TOWARD A POSSIBLE STORM LATE TUE/TUE NIGHT.
LOTS OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS
BRINGING FAIRLY HEAVY 6 INCH PLUS SNOW TO OUR AREA, SOME HAVING
THE SYSTEM PASSING JUST SOUTH OF US WITH DOWNEAST ON THE NORTH
EDGE GETTING A FEW INCHES OF SNOW, AND OTHERS FURTHER SOUTH WITH
NO PRECIPITATION. DEFINITELY TOO EARLY TO TELL, BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH. IF WE DO GET ANY PRECIPITATION, THE AIRMASS
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH THAT IT WOULD FALL IN THE FROZEN FORM,
EVEN DOWN TO THE COAST.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR AT NORTHERN SITES,
BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK DOWN TO IFR/LIFR LATER
THIS EVENING. CIGS AND VSBY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR/LIFR FOR
ALL TERMINALS THE REST OF TONIGHT AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIP
MOVES THROUGH. RA MAY BE MIXED WITH SN IN THE NORTH EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. BY LATER THURSDAY MORNING, CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR, THEN TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. THURSDAY, W WINDS 5-15 KTS. THURSDAY NIGHT, SSW
WINDS 5-10 KTS.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS AT
MAINLY NORTHERN TERMINALS, OTHERWISE VFR. SW WINDS AROUND 10
KTS WITH GUSTS 15-25 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
INTERMITTENT MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. W WIND 10 KTS GUSTING 15-20 KTS FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN W
10-15 KTS GUSTING 20-30 KTS SATURDAY. WINDS EASE SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS SNOW
DEVELOPS, WITH RAIN OR SNOW BGR/BHB. S/SE WIND INCREASING TO
10-15 KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE LATE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR WITH MAINLY RAIN BHB/BGR, AND RAIN OR SNOW
MLT NORTH TO PQI AND FVE. S WIND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
LLWS LIKELY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MOVED BACK THE START OF THE GALE WATCH TO 12Z FRI.
LOW END W/SW GALES STILL POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY SATURDAY EXCEPT FOR THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. WINDS
THEN DIMINISH DRAMATICALLY SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT S GALES APPEAR
LIKELY FOR ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS 5-8 FT THROUGH
SATURDAY, THEN DIMINISHING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY,
THEN QUICKLY RISING AGAIN CLOSE TO 10 FT SUNDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ050-051.
NEAR TERM...LF/ARL
SHORT TERM...TF
LONG TERM...TF
AVIATION...LF/ARL/TF
MARINE...LF/ARL/TF
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