339
FXUS61 KCAR 150611
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
211 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- SLIGHT DECREASE IN SNOW POTENTIAL FOR NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO A
NORTHERLY TREND IN THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE NORTH FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT AND STRONG WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
2) EXTENDED DRY PERIOD FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME SNOW OVER THE NORTH
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT AND STRONG WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, THEN MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE REGION
FRIDAY. AS OF THIS UPDATE, ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE GRADUALLY
CONVERGING ON A TRACK THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BUT
THERE ARE STILL GROUPINGS OF MEMBERS WANTING TO TAKE THE TRACK
A BIT SOUTH. THE UPDATED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE
NORTH WILL LIMIT COLDER AIR MAKING IT FURTHER SOUTH, SO SNOW
CHANCES HAVE DECREASED. THE TRACK IS STILL RELATIVELY FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SNOWFALL IN NORTHERN AREAS AS WINDS WILL HAVE AN
EASTERLY COMPONENT, PREVENTING SUBSTANTIAL WARM AIR FROM
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. MOST AREAS THAT SEE SNOW WILL PROBABLY
SEE LESS THAN AN INCH BUT A FEW AREAS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
MIGHT REACH AN INCH OR POSSIBLY TWO. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO
BE TERRAIN DEPENDENT WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS RECEIVING THE
GREATER AMOUNTS. ANY AREAS THAT DO SEE SOME SNOW WILL TRANSITION
TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM. WIDESPREAD RAIN
AMOUNTS OF A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO HALF AN INCH OF RAIN
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST AREA. SOME SLICK ROADS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AROUND FREEZING.
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO
THE 20S. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE GUSTY
WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...EXTENDED DRY PERIOD FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH AT
LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS THE JET STREAM GENERALLY STAYS TO OUR
NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AND LEAD TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. 35-45
KT LLWS ENDS DURING THE MORNING.
TONIGHT...VFR. WNW WINDS 5 KT BECOMING CALM OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN, AND POSSIBLY
SNOW MIXING IN OVER THE NORTH. MVFR OVER THE NORTH SATURDAY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS. SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT FRIDAY, INCREASING TO
15 TO 20 KT OUT OF THE NW SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY...VFR. WNW WINDS 10 KT GUSTING TO 20 KT.
MONDAY...VFR. S WINDS 5-10 KT.
MARINE
SCA CONTINUES THROUGH 14Z THURSDAY FOR INTRACOASTAL AND COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 30KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN
4-6 FEET. OUTER WATERS WILL SEE GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH 14Z THU
BEFORE DIMINISHING. CONDITIONS TO DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
BELOW SCA WINDS AND SEAS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
ON THE COASTAL AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS, THEN WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BECOMING GALES ON ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT, PERSISTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS DECREASE TO SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY. SEAS PEAK AT 11
TO 13 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS AND 6 TO 9 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS
EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA LEVELS ON
MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ080-081.
DISCUSSION...ASB/JMM
AVIATION...ASB/JMM
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