739
FXUS61 KCAR 232353
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
753 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
750 PM UPDATE...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
INCREASED FOG TONIGHT (SUNDAY NIGHT) AND MONDAY NIGHT.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN STRONG CONVECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT (SUNDAY NIGHT), AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. FOG WILL IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
2) CHANCE OF SHOWERS PERSISTS LATE THIS (SUNDAY) AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN MAINE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
3) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF BANGOR TUESDAY
AND MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WEDNESDAY.
4) THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AREAS OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT (SUNDAY NIGHT), AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. FOG WILL IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
FOG IS THE MAIN CONCERN. DENSE FOG WAS PRESENT SUNDAY MORNING
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WITH THE AIRMASS GETTING EVEN A BIT
MOISTER, THINK THAT TONIGHT WILL BE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE, EXCEPT
AREAS FURTHER INLAND WILL HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT GETTING THE FOG.
THE BEST CHANCE OF THE DENSE FOG IS NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SIGNIFICANT FOG FURTHER INLAND TOO. THE FOG
SHOULD GENERALLY DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY MONDAY, BUT FOG
APPEARS LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHTLY LATER
ONSET TO THE FOG IN THE EVENING MONDAY COMPARED TO THIS
(SUNDAY) EVENING, BUT STILL THINK THE FOG COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE
BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CHANCE OF SHOWERS PERSISTS LATE THIS (SUNDAY) AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN MAINE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AS OF 2PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON, LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN DRIZZLE. THERE ARE SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS SOUTH OF OUR AREA THAT WILL MOVE NORTH INTO
ESPECIALLY EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT
OF SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT
AN EMBEDDED STORM AND SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, BUT NOTHING
REMOTELY STRONG FOR THUNDERSTORMS, AND NO FLOODING, WITH A FEW
PLACES GETTING ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR A BIT MORE.
PROBABLY SOME DRYING LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT WITH
A BIT OF CLEARING, EXPECT ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FIRE OFF BY ABOUT MIDDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING INLAND AWAY FROM THE MORE
STABLE MARINE LAYER. THAT SAID, EVEN IN THE WETTER NORTH, ONLY
GOING WITH A 40-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS, BEST CHANCE
IN THE WESTERN NORTH WOODS. MONDAY WON'T BE A RAINOUT BY ANY
MEANS. CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE OF THE STORMS BEING ON THE
STRONGER SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS, BUT THIS IS A PRETTY MINIMAL
THREAT, AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW MANY STORMS CAN FIRE
IN THE FIRST PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF BANGOR TUESDAY
AND MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT IS GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS IT PASSES TO THE NORTH, THEN NORTHEAST TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY, SHOULD BRING WITH IT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY IN THE
LOW-MID LEVELS WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD-POOL ALOFT, THAT IS
SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY.
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
AROUND 8-8.5C/KM, WITH A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AND AROUND
35-45 KT OF BULK SHEAR. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG TO
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF BANGOR. WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHTS ARE AROUND 7500-8500 FT AWAY FROM THE COAST SO THE
GREATEST RISK WOULD BE SMALL TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
ON WEDNESDAY,AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND RETREATS TO THE
NORTHEAST, THE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTH, WITH LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8 C/KM, AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF
CAPE AND AROUND 20-30 KT OF SHEAR. ONCE AGAIN STRONG TO POSSIBLY
LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MAINLY ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK. THE WETBULB ZERO HEIGHT IS A LITTLE
HIGHER 8500-9000 J/KG, BUT STILL LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HAIL. WITH
THE STRONGER CAPE, THE MAIN THREAT IS BOTH STRONG WINDS AND SMALL
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE LOCALLY STRONG SIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE
REGION, WITH THE ADDED SUPPORT OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
PUSHING THROUGH THE TROUGH AROUND THAT TIME. WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR 500-1500 J/KG OF CAPE AND 25-35KT OF BULK SHEAR, THERE IS A
RISK OF SOME LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WITH THE MAIN THREAT STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO LIFR OR LOWER AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THESE LOW CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS.
MONDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR MOST PLACES BY 18Z,
THOUGH MVFR/IFR COULD PERSIST NEAR THE COAST. POSSIBLY AN
AFTERNOON STORM AT NORTHERN TERMINALS THOUGH NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PROB30. S WIND 5-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO IFR OR LOWER AT ALL
TERMINALS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT BHB, BGR AND HUL WITH AT LEAST
60 PERCENT CONFIDENCE IN IFR PREVAILING. LIGHT WINDS.
TUESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTION
NORTH OF KBGR. CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AT
ALL TERMINALS IN LOW CEILINGS AND/OR FOG.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTION
AT KFVE/KCAR/KPQI, OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. LLWS POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
FRIDAY: VFR IN THE MORNING, THEN MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE. S
WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE.
MARINE
FOG OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. S/SE WINDS 15 KTS OR
LESS AND SEAS 2-4 FT. A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS OF 4 FT OR LESS ARE
FORECAST ON ALL WATERS OUT TO 60NM FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG ON THE WATERS TUESDAY MORNING,
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN 1 NM. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS LATE ON FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TF/PM
AVIATION...21/TF/PM
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