478
FXUS61 KCAR 271240
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
840 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 8:40AM UPDATE...LOWERED AFTERNOON MINIMUM RHS A COUPLE
PERCENT BASED ON THE GYX AND CAR 12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS. HI-
RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO OVERDO RHS FOR TODAY AND LOWERED
CLOSER TO NBM 10TH PERCENTILE FOR DEW POINTS AWAY FROM THE
SHORELINE WHERE A SEABREEZE DEVELOPS LATE MORNING. THIS
SEABREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND TO THE GREATER BANGOR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND NORTH OF THE AIRLINE INTO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
DOWNEAST MAINE. THE MAINE FOREST SERVICE HAS PLACED THE ENTIRE
AREA IN MODERATE FIRE DANGER TODAY, THANKFULLY WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE EXCEPT 5-15MPH POSSIBLE WITH THE SEABREEZE.
ALSO CONTINUED TO ADJUST SKY CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY JUST HIGH
CIRRUS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXPECTING SOME HIGH BASED CU TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND TUESDAY.
2) SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHICH
SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL FOR THE ONGOING GROUNDWATER DROUGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY AND TUESDAY AS THE
500MB RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE AREA TODAY SHIFTS OVERHEAD ON
TUESDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 3 TO 5C WILL YIELD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S, WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW SPOTS
ACROSS THE PENOBSCOT VALLEY TOUCHING 70 DEGREES TODAY UNDER
STRONG SOLAR HEATING AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. WINDS SHIFT SOUTH ON
TUESDAY LEADING TO MORE MARINE INDUCED COOLING ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS AND DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE SOME LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE
COAST MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH, COMBINED WITH DECREASING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE AND RECENT DRY
WEATHER, COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. IF CONSIDERING
BURNING PLEASE CONSULT THE MAINE FOREST SERVICE WEBSITE OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO WHERE RATINGS ARE BROADCAST EACH
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, WHICH SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL FOR THE ONGOING GROUNDWATER
DROUGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PIVOTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
ONTARIO DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME RIDGING
WILL ERODE OVER MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF GREENLAND, CREATING STRONG BLOCKING
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH PROGRESSION TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME CUT-OFF. AT FIRST SOME LIGHTER RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND DOWNEAST AREAS,
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK ONSHORE PUSH OF MOISTURE. ON THURSDAY, A
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL FOSTER THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT OVER EXACTLY WHERE IT TRACKS
AND WHEN IT REACHES MAINE BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW
CENTER TO TRACK SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST. AMPLE
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PWATS
WILL BE APPROACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AMPLE RAINFALL WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING
SOMEWHERE AROUND 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH A FEW HIGHER
END SOLUTIONS SHOWING LOCALIZED AREAS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
GENERALLY THINKING THAT SOME OF THESE HIGHER END SOLUTIONS WILL
NOT COME TO FRUITION AS FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 6 TO 7KFT WILL
FAVOR LESS EFFICIENT COLD RAIN PROCESSES AND THERE WILL LIKELY
NOT BE ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION. CURRENTLY THINKING THERE MAY
ONLY BE MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
DROUGHT, BUT THAT THE SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED COULD HELP
ALLEVIATE SOME OF THE DEFICIT IN THE GROUNDWATER.
HEAVIER PWATS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND, BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIKELY
TO REMAIN OVERHEAD AND CAUSE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR CLOUDIER SKIES AND SHOWERS, POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: VFR, BECOMING IFR AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MVFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY WITH -SHRA AND -DZ POSSIBLE. PATCHY FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SSE WINDS 5-10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: IFR LIKELY SOUTHERN TERMINALS, MVFR NORTHERN
TERMINALS. E/SE WINDS 5-10KT. -SHRA OR -DZ REMAIN POSSIBLE.
PATCHY FG ALSO POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
THURSDAY: SOME PATCHY FOG EARLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. GENERALLY
IFR AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH MVFR/IFR NORTHERN TERMINALS. RAIN
BECOMING STEADY IN THE AFTERNOON. E WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 20 KT. LLWS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LIKELY IFR IN RAIN ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. E
WINDS 10-15 KT. LLWS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY RAIN
MOVES OUT WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS HOLD ON.
E WIND 10-15 KT.
MARINE
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET BEYOND 10NM OFFSHORE AS A
SE SWELL DEVELOPS WITH A PERIOD OF 7 TO 8 SECONDS.
SEAS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS
INCREASE TO ABOVE SCA CRITERIA BY THURSDAY MORNING ON THE
COASTAL WATERS. A 20% CHANCE OF GALES OVER THE COASTAL AND OUTER
WATERS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEA SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 38-42F FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST OUT 60NM AND EAST TO THE HAGUE LINE INCLUDING
PENOBSCOT AND PASSAMAQUODDY BAYS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SM/MWS/JS
AVIATION...SM/MWS
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