333
FXUS61 KCAR 201217
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
817 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH.
2) A COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE LATE THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AMD LIGHT WINDS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS PROMOTING FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. THIS LIKELY WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE PATCHY FROST.
THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN REGIONS WITH BETTER
CHANCES IN LOW LYING AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COASTAL LOW COULD IMPACT AT LEAST DOWNEAST MAINE LATE THIS
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A PIECE OF ENERGY CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE NORTHWARD, ALONG THE EAST COAST, THROUGH THE COMING DAYS.
BY MIDWEEK, IT WILL COMBINE WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE AS A
SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE.
TIMING AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
WITH STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST, THE SPEED AND TRACK
OF THE LOW WILL DEPEND ON THE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
DEGRADATION OF THE STRONG CANADIAN HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF TIMING, THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS WILL BE OVER COASTAL DOWNEAST.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TODAY...GENERALLY VFR. OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE LATE WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTH
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG
WITH PATCHY FOG. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
WEST/NORTHWEST.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY IN PATCHY FOG BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR
AFTER SUNRISE. NW 5-10KTS, GUSTING TO 15-20KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...VFR, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER
IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT. NE-NW WINDS G15-20KT
POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING. NE-E WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT-WEDNESDAY AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
MARINE
SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS OVER ALL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY. PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS MONDAY NIGHT-
THURSDAY SHOULD BE 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS. ON THE
WATERS FROM 25-60NM, THE SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD BE 20 KT OR LESS
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS ON THURSDAY COULD BUILD TO 4-7 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...21/PM/MB
AVIATION...21/PM/MB/CN
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