979  
FXUS61 KCAR 290736  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
336 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TODAY AND CROSS THE  
AREA THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-  
ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY...APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TRACK  
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH  
QUEBEC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH  
TODAY WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS  
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN  
HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA  
REACHING THE EASTERN PART OF OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  
CAPES OVER WESTERN AREAS ARE UP TO 300K ON THE NAM, AND BOTH  
THE NAM AND THE HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE  
SHOWERS, SO WILL CARRY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHLANDS.  
 
THE SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER,  
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AND A CORRIDOR OF WEAK  
LIFT AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM WESTERN QUEBEC  
MAY SUSTAIN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SO WILL INCLUDE  
SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY  
AND A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT NIGHTS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/  
 
GUIDANCE AGREES FAIRLY WELL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM BUT  
IS THEN IN TWO DIFFERENT CAMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY, CWA  
WILL BE IN FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WITH COLD FRONT LOCATED WELL TO OUR  
NORTH. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S OVER INLAND AREAS WITH FLOW OUT  
OF THE SOUTHWEST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
EXPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT. H5  
TROF WILL BE DEEPENING TO OUR NORTH WITH S/WV ROUNDING THE BASE OF  
THE TROF IN VICINITY OF NY/PA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. S/WV LIKELY TO  
INDUCE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z  
SATURDAY LOCATION OF COASTAL LOW RANGES ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHERN NEW  
ENGLAND TO THE NY BIGHT. MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND  
ENSEMBLE MEANS LOOKS TO BE HINTING AT LOW OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND ON  
SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH NBM, GFS AND EC FOR POPS AND  
QPF AT THIS TIME.  
 
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALL DAY SATURDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. GIVEN MORE  
NORTHWARD SOLN CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER WITH ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN  
IS POSSIBLE WITH PW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.25-1.30 INCHES, ABOVE THE  
90TH PERCENTILE. HIGHS DURING THE DAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COLDER  
THAN ON FRIDAY.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION AS NAM/CMC MUCH SLOWER  
MOVING SECONDARY LOW NORTH AND THRU ERN SXNS OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT.  
MEANWHILE, GFS/EC DEVELOP YET ANOTHER SECONDARY (REALLY A THIRD) LOW  
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AS ANOTHER COMPACT S/WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE  
TROF. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WASHING OUT THE LOW  
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY NIGHT  
AND AN ADDITIONAL 0.10-0.30 INCHES.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA  
WITH H5 TROF HANGING BACK TO OUR WEST. ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING UPR  
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NBM SHOWING  
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AFTER MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES  
MODERATING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT  
SHORTWAVES ZIPPING THROUGH BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.  
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS NOT EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR OVER THE SOUTH EARLY  
TONIGHT AND DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS  
LIGHT SW TODAY THEN VERY LIGHT S TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM:  
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY  
FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SW 5-10KTS BECOMING SE 5KTS FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.  
LLWS POSSIBLE. SE 5-10KTS, BECOMING SW SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. SW 5-15KTS.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR S TO N. WSW 5-15KTS.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS BELOW 3 FT TODAY AND  
TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS MAY RESULT IN A BIT OF LIGHT  
FOG OR MIST OVERNIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS ON FRIDAY WITH SEAS AT  
MARGINAL LEVELS FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS CLIMB  
ABOVE 5FT SATURDAY EVENING AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF  
THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG INTO SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER  
SHORT TERM...BUSTER  
LONG TERM...BUSTER  
AVIATION...BLOOMER/BUSTER  
MARINE...BLOOMER/BUSTER  
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