700
FXUS61 KCAR 272336
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
736 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY,
WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY FOR A FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
2) SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHICH
SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL FOR THE ONGOING GROUNDWATER DROUGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY, WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY FOR A FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE 500MB
RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE AREA SHIFTS OVERHEAD. 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 3 TO 5C WILL YIELD SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70F. WINDS SHIFT SOUTH ON TUESDAY LEADING
TO MORE MARINE INDUCED COOLING ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE SOME
LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S
DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH,
COMBINED WITH DECREASING RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE AND RECENT DRY WEATHER, COULD LEAD TO FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. IF CONSIDERING BURNING PLEASE CONSULT THE MAINE FOREST
SERVICE WEBSITE OR LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO WHERE FIRE
DANGER RATINGS ARE BROADCAST EACH MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, WHICH SHOULD BE BENEFICIAL FOR THE ONGOING GROUNDWATER
DROUGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A COOLER, WETTER WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL RAIN ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS FAIRLY
MINOR, LIKELY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS AND LIMITED MOSTLY TO AREAS
SOUTH OF MILLINOCKET. THE MORE WIDESPREAD, HEAVIER RAIN APPEARS
TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
AND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY EVERYWHERE. THE RAIN WILL BE AHEAD OF
A RELATIVELY STRONG, AND STRENGTHENING, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SURFACE LOW MOVES
THROUGH EITHER DOWNEAST MAINE OR THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRIDAY,
THEN INTO NEW BRUNSWICK FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE START/END OF THE RAINFALL. FOR
EXAMPLE, FAR EASTERN MAINE COULD STAY DRY ALL DAY THURSDAY OR
COULD BE WET. ALSO, THE RAIN COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY OR TAPER
OFF FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR BOTH. BOTTOM LINE IS
SOME PRETTY HEALTHY RAIN TOTALS THROUGH THIS WHOLE PERIOD. THE
CHANCES OF TOTAL RAIN EXCEEDING ONE INCH ARE AROUND 40 PERCENT
IN THE NORTH AND 80 PERCENT DOWNEAST. THE CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
TWO INCHES IS AROUND 10 PERCENT IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 40
PERCENT DOWNEAST. WE DON'T ANTICIPATE THE RAIN TO BE ENOUGH FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN VERY MINOR NUISANCE FLOODING, AND IF ANY OF
THIS OCCURS, IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A DECENT BREEZE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
AS THE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES, PEAKING LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. GUSTS 20-30 MPH OVER LAND ARE POSSIBLE, WITH GUSTS 30-40
MPH OVER WATER. THIS LIKELY WON'T BE ENOUGH FOR ANY IMPACTS TO
TREES. TEMPERATURES DURING THE RAIN WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL AND
GENERALLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S. WE CAN'T RULE OUT A SECONDARY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGING MORE RAIN,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. THERE'S ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF AT LEAST ANOTHER QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN THE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT PERIOD. IN THIS WETTER, COOLER PATTERN, FOG COULD BE AN
ISSUE FROM TIME TO TIME, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TONIGHT...HIGH VFR OR SKC. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
TUESDAY...FEW-SCT HIGH CIG VFR. S-SE WINDS 5-15KT GUSTING UP TO
20KT AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR NORTH AND IFR SOUTH. POSSIBLE -RA. SE WIND 5-10
KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: IFR SOUTH AND MVFR/IFR NORTH. POSSIBLE -RA. SE
WIND 5-10 KTS.
THURSDAY: IFR SOUTH AND MVFR/IFR NORTH. RA DEVELOPING. ESE WIND
10-15 KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LIKELY IFR IN RA ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. E WINDS
10-15 KT. LLWS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY RAIN
MOVES OUT WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS HOLD ON.
E WIND 10-15 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: VARIABLE WIND AROUND 10 MPH BECOME W
ON SATURDAY. IFR/MVFR GENERALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR, BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE.
MARINE
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET BEYOND 10NM OFFSHORE AS A
SE SWELL DEVELOPS WITH A PERIOD OF 7 TO 8 SECONDS. SEA SURFACE
WATER TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 38-42F FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST OUT
60NM AND EAST TO THE HAGUE LINE INCLUDING PENOBSCOT AND
PASSAMAQUODDY BAYS.
SEAS INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WINDS
INCREASE TO ABOVE SCA CRITERIA BY THURSDAY MORNING ON THE
COASTAL WATERS. A 30% CHANCE OF GALES OVER THE COASTAL AND
OUTER WATERS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TF/JS
AVIATION...21/TF/JS
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