937
FXUS61 KCAR 030021
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
821 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH PATCHY FROST ELSEWHERE IN INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY FOLLOWED BY GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED FOR NORTHERN AREAS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH PATCHY FROST ELSEWHERE IN INTERIOR
DOWNEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
1030MB SFC HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN EXCELLENT RADN/L COOLING
CONDS. TEMPS DROP TO AROUND 30 IN THE NORTH, WITH DEEPER VALLEYS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 20S BY DAWN. WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED
TO THE NORTH OF BANGOR.
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST MAY OCCUR IN THE BANGOR REGION LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT FROST FOR INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND
ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGH CAN BUILD IN FASTER THAN
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. PEOPLE SHOULD BE PREPARED TO PROTECT ANY
VULNERABLE VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IF THEY ARE IN
LOWER LYING AREAS THAT TYPICALLY GETS COLDER.
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED FOR ALL COUNTIES EXCEPT HANCOCK
AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES, SO FROST HEADLINES WOULD NOT BE ISSUED FOR
PENOBSCOT, PISCATAQUIS, NORTHERN SOMERSET, OR AROOSTOOK COUNTIES.
COASTAL DOWNEAST SHOULD STAY WARM ENOUGH TO LIMIT ANY FROST, THOUGH
CHECK THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SUNDAY NIGHT, A COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL HAVE
BROUGHT WIDESPREAD FROST SUNDAY AM SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVER THE
MARITIMES. A POTENT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH A TRAILING POTENT COLD
FRONT. THAT FRONT WILL SWING ACROSS THE CWA ON MONDAY AT THE
SAME TIME AS A LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE TWO LOWS
PROVIDES SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT RAINFALL. THERE A FEW
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS STILL WITH THE MODELS. 1. THE HIGH PRESSURE
COULD DOMINATE, FORCING THE LOWS TO STAY TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTH, LIMITING PRECIP. 2. THE CANADIAN LOW COULD ENHANCE THE
COASTAL LOW AS IT RIDES THE COAST NORTH, BRINGING MORE
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIP TO COASTAL AREAS. 3. THE CANADIAN LOW COULD
DOMINATE, BRINGING ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ALONG ITS COLD FRONT
FROM THE MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST LOW. AT THIS TIME,
UNCERTAINTY FROM THE MODELS IS HIGH, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOW, WITH A WIDE RANGE OF PRECIPITATION VALUES.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON TUESDAY, AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEEPENS IN THE NORTHERN MARITIMES, WE CAN EXPECT STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO DIVE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH
RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST WINDS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY. TUESDAY PROBABILITIES FOR 35+ MPH
WIND GUSTS HAVE INCREASED TO 70-90% WITH 40+ MPH PROBABILITIES
NOW 50-70%, MAINLY FOR MILLINOCKET AND AREAS NORTH. THERE IS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A POTENTIAL OF WIND HEADLINES BUT
STILL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON EXACT EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS.
HOWEVER, IT IS LIKELY THAT SIGNIFICANT LEAF LOSS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN AREAS OF NORTHERN MAINE WHERE PEAK FOLIAGE HAS BEEN REACHED.
ADDITIONAL LEAF LOSS POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO
DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE THE FOLIAGE IS MODERATE TO HIGH. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES, AS MODELS BEGIN TO GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE ATMOSPHERIC SET UP.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TONIGHT...OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS DOWNEAST THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, VFR. ISOLATED EARLY MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KNOTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE.
OTHERWISE, VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SUNDAY...VFR. S WINDS, GUSTING TO 15 KNOTS, POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...VFR SUNDAY NIGHT CHANGING OVER TO MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE, DUE TO RAIN ON MONDAY. CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
AT KBHB, THAT WOULD LIFT DURING THE MORNING. S WINDS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHIFT TO W MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR NORTH. VFR DOWNEAST. WESTERLY
WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS MONDAY
NIGHT. WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS
TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. W/NW WINDS. 10-15
KNOTS, GUSTING TO 25-30 KNOTS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AND 5-10
KNOTS WITH 20-25 KNOT GUSTS AT THE DOWNEAST TERMINALS. WINDS
RELAX 5-10 KNOTS AREA WIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND GUSTS AT 15-20
KNOTS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN
WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH FROPA, WHICH MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT, GUSTING TO NEAR
20KTS.
SUNDAY MORNING WINDS WILL CHANGE FROM N TO SE, WITH WINDS
STAYING UNDER 20 KTS, AND WAVE HEIGHTS BETWEEN 2-4 FT THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ASB/21/CM
AVIATION...21/CN
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