878
FXUS61 KCAR 022336
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
636 PM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES
TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THEN EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER LOW APPROACHING FRI
NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
630 PM UPDATE: OVERCAST SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, WHILE BANGOR AND THE DOWNEAST
REGION REMAIN CLEAR. WITH THESE CONDITIONS AND DECREASING WINDS,
SURFACE DECOUPLING IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE DOWNEAST MORE
QUICKLY, LEADING TO RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT DUE
TO EFFECTIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. IN THE NORTH, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOWER TO DECREASE, HOWEVER AFTER A COOL AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON TRACK WITH WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
OVERALL, ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE SKY FORECAST AND THE
CHANCE FOR FOG WAS REMOVED BASED ON FORECAST RH, CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE NORTH, AND FORECAST VISIBILITY, OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE LARGE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A
WEAK AREA OF VORT MAX WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUD DECK OVER THE
NORTH FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT, WHILE THE
SOUTH WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES. THESE CLEARING SKIES WILL BRING
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. DECIDED TO INCLUDE PATCHY RIVER
FOG FOR TONIGHT DUE TO THE COOLER TEMPS AND CALM WINDS. FOR
MONDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROF TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE
THE SURFACE OCCLUSION STARTS TO APPROACH THE STATE. CLOUDS WILL
START TO BUILD IN BY THE AFTERNOON AS WELL AS S WINDS INCREASING
BECOMING BREEZY. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THE BEGINNING OF RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BY THE EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE 50S ACROSS THE REGION. BY MONDAY NIGHT, THE OCCLUDED
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
BREEZY S WINDS. AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT,
THE BREEZY WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE W AND SHOWERS WILL START TO
DECREASE. RAIN TOTALS SHOULD BE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW AND THE SUPPORTING UPPER TROF EXIT
ACROSS THE MARITIMES TUESDAY. WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF MOSTLY RAIN
SHOWERS WITH THE EXITING SYSTEM TUESDAY, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN MAINE EARLY.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INTENSIFYING MARITIMES
LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE, ALONG WITH DIURNAL MIXING, WILL
SUPPORT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY. GENERALLY EXPECT GUSTS OF
30 TO 40 MPH, THOUGH LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT GENERALLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES NORTH AND PARTLY SUNNY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TOWARD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NORTH, MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY CLOUDY DOWNEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY, STARTING TO EXIT ACROSS THE
MARITIMES LATE. AT THE SAME TIME, LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE. CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM, ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF RAIN LATE. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
LOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS STILL UNCERTAIN. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE WOULD SUPPORT BETTER RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, WITH LESSER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. THIS TRACK WOULD ALSO SUPPORT SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WHICH COULD ALLOW A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. A MORE INLAND TRACK, ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREAS OR
ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST, WOULD SUPPORT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS TRACK WOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY
IN THE FORM OF RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW LATE ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT
ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM, WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCES, WILL
PERSIST THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES THURSDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
TOWARD THE REGION LATE. STEADY RAIN EARLY THURSDAY WILL TAPER
TO RAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW EARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL AGAIN OCCUR THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BRIEFLY CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. THE NEXT FAST MOVING SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION EXPANDING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. GENERALLY EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, THOUGH A BRIEF WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY WITH RAIN. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS NORTH, RAIN SHOWERS DOWNEAST,
SATURDAY NIGHT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY REGARDING
ANOTHER POSSIBLE LOW APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SUNDAY, WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SKC AT DOWNEAST TERMINALS AND NORTHERN
TERMINALS IN LOW END OVC VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, INCREASING OUT OF THE S ON MONDAY
TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. LLWS COULD DEVELOP LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, DECREASING BY AROUND
00Z AS RAIN MIXES WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER MONDAY NIGHT, BECOMING MVFR FROM SW TO NE AS RAIN MOVES
INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT W AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT
AT 5 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR NORTH WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS. VFR/MVFR
EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS, THEN VFR, DOWNEAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 KNOTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 25 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY, THEN VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN LATE.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR EARLY, LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR.
RAIN/SNOW LIKELY NORTH, RAIN LIKELY DOWNEAST. VARIABLE WINDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTHWEST/NORTH 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY, THEN VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW
EARLY NORTH TAPERING TO RAIN SHOWERS. A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY,
TAPERING TO RAIN SHOWERS, DOWNEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY NORTH.
OTHERWISE, VFR. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...VFR EARLY, THEN VFR/MVFR LATE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND MON MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE TO SCA BY
MON AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO MON NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
SHORT TERM: A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL THE WATERS FROM
TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GALE
CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF RAIN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
NEAR TERM...AES/ARL
SHORT TERM...CN
LONG TERM...CN
AVIATION...AES/ARL/CN
MARINE...AES/ARL/CN
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