785
FXUS61 KCAR 182203
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
603 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2018
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE DOWNEAST COAST EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CREST OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. STRONG LOW
PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
550 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SHWR CVRG DIMINISHING
ACROSS THE N AS 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS MOVES E WITH MDT-HVY RN
SHWRS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVG SE INTO DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE
RGN. SHWRS OVR DOWNEAST AREAS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH
THE LOSS OF DAY TM HTG AND SFC BASED CAPE, WITH SHWR CVRG ACROSS
ALL OF THE FA BECOMING NO MORE THAN ISOLD BY LATE NGT.
OTHERWISE, WE LOWERED FCST OVRNGT LOWS BY 1 TO 3 DEG F SPCLY OVR
NRN AREA BASED ON TRENDS SEEN IN LATE AFTN SFC OBS WHICH
INDICATED A FEW LCTNS ALREADY NEAR PRIOR FCST LOWS ACROSS THE
FAR N. TEMPS SHOULD LVL OFF ACROSS THE N WITH THE SLACKENING OF
LLVL COLD ADVCN OVRNGT, WHILE FALLING OFF FAIRLY SHARPLY ACROSS
CNTRL AND DOWNEAST AREAS.
ORGNL DISC: A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE DOWNEAST COAST EARLY
TONIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDING TOWARD THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY TONIGHT, WHICH COULD LINGER ACROSS
MOSTLY THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. A DISTURBANCE CROSSING
THE REGION WEDNESDAY COULD KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
MOSTLY THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 40S
NORTH, TO THE MID 50S DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
WEDNESDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S NORTH, TO THE LOWER
TO MID 60S DOWNEAST.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CHILLY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS OVER THE RELATIVELY WARMER GROUND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
LOTS OF STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. OTHERWISE, THURSDAY WILL BE A
TRANQUIL AND COOL DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA.
PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY LATE THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES
TO THE NORTHEAST AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
OUR ATTENTION THEN FOCUSES ON A VERY LARGE AND STRONG AUTUMNAL STORM
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE REGION.
A SOUTH WIND WILL INCREASE AND SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES IN. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING A STRONG SOUTH WIND,
LOW OVERCAST AND SOME SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE. WIND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR PART OR ALL OF THE AREA FOR SOUTH WINDS POSSIBLY
GUSTING OVER 45 MPH. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT IS LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. THE REST
OF THE DAY WILL BE CLOUDY BUT WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW FRIDAY EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN ON SATURDAY
BRINGING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY DOWNEAST AND PARTIAL SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
NORTH. THE AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY WITH THIS HIGH, BUT THE COOLER
AIR OVER THE WARMER GROUND MAY AGAIN CAUSE STRATOCUMULUS TO LINGER
OVER MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CALM AND CHILLY NIGHT. A RETURN FLOW
BEHIND THE HIGH WILL THEN BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE AREA, MOSTLY
CENTRAL AND NORTH, ON SUNDAY AS DOWNEAST REMAINS MOSTLY CLEAR.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS.
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH SOME VERY
CHILLY AND DRY AIR INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
FOLLOWING THE FRONT.
AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR, WITH LOCAL LIFR, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MVFR
CONDITIONS, MOSTLY CEILINGS, ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/IFR LEVELS
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS THIS EVENING, WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS
THEN PERSISTING TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NORTH ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
SOME STRATOCUMULUS LINGERS OVER THE NORTH. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR EVERYWHERE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN LOWER TO IFR IN LOW CLOUDS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS, AND SSW
WIND SHEAR, IS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR NORTH AND VFR DOWNEAST SATURDAY MORNING,
THEN VFR EVERYWHERE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS, FROM
LATER THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
REDUCED IN RAIN AND FOG EARLY TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SCA OR A GALE WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR STRONG SW WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH ON SATURDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER
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