761
FXUS61 KCAR 190735
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
235 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
MOSTLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
2) STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A POTENTIAL STORM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS
MOSTLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BETWEEN WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND AN INTENSIFYING OCEAN LOW EXITING SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF MAINE, WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW COULD EXPAND ACROSS MOSTLY
DOWNEAST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN, CURRENT INDICATIONS ONLY SUPPORT LIGHT POSSIBLE
TOTALS. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTH,
SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STILL SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A POTENTIAL STORM
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS STILL INDICATE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY, THEN TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL TRACK STILL EXISTS. A WIDE
RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL EXISTS. THESE SOLUTIONS STILL
RANGE FROM A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL STORM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, TO A STORM WHICH BARELY CLIPS THE REGION, TO THE MOST
SOUTHERLY TRACK SOLUTIONS WHICH WOULD HAVE NO IMPACT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WHAT IMPACTS, IF ANY, FROM THIS STORM WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY, TONIGHT, AND FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR CIGS FOR BGR/BHB LATE FRIDAY
EVENING. TODAY, NW WINDS 5-10 KTS. TONIGHT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. FRIDAY N WINDS 5-10 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE
OF SNOW NORTH. MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR, WITH SNOW DOWNEAST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT. NORTH WINDS
10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR NORTH. VFR/MVFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
DOWNEAST. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
MONDAY...STILL UNCERTAINTY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF
LOW PRESSURE.
MARINE
WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS LATER THIS MORNING AND
REMAIN FOR TODAY, TONIGHT, AND FRIDAY. SEAS 1-3 FT.
A FEW WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SNOW LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
051.
DISCUSSION...ARL/CN
AVIATION...ARL/CN
MARINE...ARL/CN
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