329
FXUS61 KCAR 061035
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
535 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE REMOVED FROM MOST OF OUR AREA
SATURDAY WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO FOCUS WEST OF
OUR AREA.
- TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AM, RESULTING IN NOT AS COLD WIND CHILLS. KEEPING
THE EXTREME COLD WATCH AS IS FOR NOW.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
2) CALM AIR AND CLEAR SKIES IS RESULTING IN BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS.
3) PATTERN TURNS FAVORABLE FOR A STORM SYSTEM NEARBY BUT A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY IN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY
WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
OVERALL OPERATIONAL MODELING AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
MAINTAINED CONSISTENT TIMING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS THE
STATE SATURDAY PM INTO THE EVENING. IT IS VERY MOISTURE STARVED
IN OUR AREA AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS DEEPLY SE OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED. THE 500MB TROF
DIGS DEEPLY TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH A 504DAM LOW UP OVER
NORTHERN QUEBEC AND A 513DAM LOW DIVING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL BEHIND FROPA AS THIS AIRMASS IS
PURELY ARCTIC.
RUNNING THE NOAA HYSPLIT BACKWARD TRAJECTORY MODEL THIS AIRMASS
ARRIVING AT CAR & BGR ORIGINATED FROM SIBERIA RUSSIA ON JAN
28TH AND STAYED AROUND THE NORTH POLE BETWEEN JAN 29-31ST. THE
COLD AIR BROKE OFF AND PUSHED SOUTH TO HUDSON BAY CANADA THEN
WILL BE ARRIVING INTO MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS VERY
TEXTBOOK WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE AO (-3.5SD), POSITIVE PNA (+1SD)
AND WEAK NEGATIVE NEUTRAL NAO. THE WEAK NEGATIVE NEUTRAL NAO
GIVES CONFIDENCE THIS ARCTIC BLAST WILL BE SHORT LIVED AT ONLY
48-72HRS AND WE WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE -5F TO +5F
RANGE FROM EASTERN AROOSTOOK TO PENOBSCOT VALLEY INCLUDING
BAXTER SP AREA SOUTH TO THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH THE DOWNEAST THE
BEST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF 0F. RAISED
TEMPERATURES 1-3 DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST NBM 4.3 AND 5.0
PROBABILITIES. FOR THE MOOSEHEAD REGION INTO THE NORTH WOODS
MODELING HAS WARMED THE AIR TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE LAST
1-2 CYCLES RESULTING IN AIR TEMPERATURES INTO THE -10F TO -5F
RANGE. AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL SOUTH OF MAINE AND HIGH
PRESSURE IN QUEBEC PUSHES IN WITH THE 500MB TROF TO OUR WEST
GIVES US THE BEST CHANCE OF A BREEZY NIGHT. MODELED SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP 2KFT TO
950MB WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. NBM
OPERATIONAL WINDS/GUSTS CONTINUES TO BE LOW SO OPTED TO ADD IN
NBM90TH PERCENTILE FOR WIND SPEEDS AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LONGFELLOW MTNS. THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH NBM 4.3 AND 5.0 QMD WIND GUSTS PROBABILITIES OF >25MPH
GUSTS IN THE 50-70% RANGE IN MOST OF THE CWA WITH PROBS OF
GUSTS >30MPH IN THE 60-80% RANGE ALONG THE LONGFELLOWS. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SEND WIND
CHILLS PRETTY WIDESPREAD -20F TO -10F FOR THE CWA. WIND CHILLS
RANGING -35 TO -25F ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AND MOOSEHEAD REGION
WILL BE THE COLDEST SPOTS. GIVEN THE DECREASED CONFIDENCE
REACHING THE -35F WIND CHILL CRITERIA FOR WARNING HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP THE EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PISCATAQUIS AND NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTIES FROM 7PM SATURDAY
THROUGH 10AM SUNDAY. IT IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THESE AREAS WILL
BE UNDER AND ADVISORY INSTEAD OF A WARNING. OUTSIDE OF THE
WATCH AREA THERE MAY NEED TO BE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IF WIND
CHILLS REACH -25F NORTH AND THEN -20F IN SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH
IS CRITERIA. THE PROBABILITIES HAVE FALLEN 5-10% IN THE LAST 2
CYCLES OF THE NBM SUGGESTING WE MIGHT BE JUST SUB ADVISORY IN
MORE LOCATIONS THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. EITHER WAY STILL
FRIGID!
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD AS THE TROF REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND
CONDITIONS REMAIN BREEZY. THE AFTERNOON SUN ANGLE NOW PEAKS AT
27 DEGREES OFF THE HORIZON WHICH IS NOW HELPING MODIFY THE
AIRMASS A LITTLE BIT. HIGHS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO
NEAR 10F NORTH AND 10-15F FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. BREEZY NW
WINDS 10-20MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS MAINLY
BELOW ZERO FOR MOST AND AROUND 0F AT THE COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT YET
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH AIR TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH CWA WIDE
BELOW ZERO WITH THE COLDEST IN THE NORTH WOODS AND ST. JOHN
VALLEY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WITH 40-50% PROBABILITIES OF REACHING
ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CALM AIR AND CLEAR SKIES IS RESULTING IN BITTER
COLD TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE TRANQUIL AIR AND CLEAR SKY EARLY THIS MORNING HAS RESULTED IN
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO BITTER COLD
LEVELS. CALM AIR HAS RESULTED A BIG CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN
THE VALLEYS, WHICH ARE DROPPING TO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO, AND THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS, DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. SUNSHINE
TODAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO THE MID TEENS NORTH AND
THE LOW 20S SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...PATTERN TURNS FAVORABLE FOR A STORM SYSTEM
NEARBY BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FOR THE AO ARE TURNING POSITIVE AS
THE PNA GOES NEGATIVE AND NAO TURNS NEUTRAL. UNDER WEAK LA NINA
CONDITIONS THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD OF THE SUBSEASONAL
TELECONNECTIONS TYPICALLY BREWS A STORM SYSTEM. GIVEN THE AO
GOING POSITIVE THIS FAVORS THE NORTHERN STREAM JET AND SOUTHERN
JET SHIFTING NORTH OVER THE CONUS INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION
TO DEVELOP A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. WE ARE
STARTING TO SEE SIGNS OF THIS IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS,
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND AI MODELS. SINCE WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES. THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBILITY IS
CURRENTLY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTHWEST OF ALASKA. THE AI
ENSEMBLES ARE ON THE FASTER SIDE WITH A POSSIBLE SYSTEM IN THE
REGION WED- THU TIMEFRAME WITH NON- AI ENSEMBLES IN THE THU- FRI
TIMEFRAME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TREND...NBM POPS DID
INCREASE INTO THE LOW END CHANCE POPS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND
COULD NOT FIND A REASON TO CHANGE THAT FOR NOW.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
TODAY...VFR ALL SITES. N WIND LESS THAN 5 KT.
TONIGHT...VFR, DROPPING TO MVFR NORTHERN SITES DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. N WIND LESS THAN 5 KT.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR NORTH AND VFR SOUTH. N WIND LESS THAN 5 KT
EARLY, INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KT LATE.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR NORTH AND VFR SOUTH. NW WINDS 10-15KT
GUSTING 20-30KT. DRSN/BLSN POSSIBLE AT AIRFIELDS. LLWS
POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15KT GUSTING 20-25KT. DRSN/BLSN
POSSIBLE AT AIRFIELDS. LLWS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15KT GUSTING 20-25KT.
TUESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 5-15KT.
MARINE
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW SCA TODAY, TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
N WINDS WILL INCREASE TO SCA EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING NNE
AND APPROACHING GALE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT LATE SATURDAY.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO N-NNW GALES SATURDAY EVENING. A
GALE WATCH REMAINS FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 4PM EST
SATURDAY THROUGH 1PM EST SUNDAY. CONTINUING TO WATCH THE TRENDS
ON TIMING OF THE GALES BEFORE GOING TO A WARNING. N-NNW GALES
ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. N-NNW WINDS 20-30KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40KT AND SEAS 4-7FT. IN ADDITION TO THE GALES MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY EVENING TO MONDAY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS A LOW END POSSIBILITY FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SUNDAY MORNING BUT THAT POTENTIAL
CONTINUES TO DECREASE. THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXPERIENCING
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL RELAX BACK TO SCA CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AM. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4FT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WINDS/SEAS TO BE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. BEYOND THAT INTO LATE
NEXT WEEK THERE IS A TON OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL OF A
STORM SYSTEM NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ003-004-010.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...MB/JS
AVIATION...MB/JS
MARINE...MB/JS
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