486
FXUS61 KCAR 221011
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
611 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY, THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY, THEN
CROSSES THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY, WITH A COLD FRONT THEN CROSSING
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
610AM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL EXIT OVER THE GULF OF MAINE
TODAY. FOR THIS MORNING, RH MODELS INDICATE A LAYER OF HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE NORTH. S FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON WILL
BRING WARM TEMPS INTO THE REGION, BUT THE LAYER OF CLOUDS IN THE
NORTH AND THE PASSING COOL AIRMASS TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 50S AND THE SOUTH IN THE MID 60S. FOR TONIGHT, THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS, CAUSING
S WINDS TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. IN THE SOUTH,
CALMER WINDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL PUSH THE MARINE LAYER INTO
THE REGION. SREF MODELS SHOW THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR PATCHY TO
AREAS OF FOG FROM DOVER-FOXCROFT TO HOULTON AND SOUTH. CANNOT
RULE OUT PATCHY FOG REACH FURTHER NORTH THAN HOULTON, BUT BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL DRIVE DOWN CHANCES. TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS DEW POINTS REACH THE LOWER 50S. DRIER
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MIX OUT THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
BY LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING. H9 TEMPS WILL PUSH UP TOWARDS 16 TO
17C. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA EXCEPT DOWNEAST. DOWNEAST WILL RECEIVE COOLER ONSHORE
WINDS. RECORDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT.
THE EXPECTATION FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S MEANS DEEPER
MIXING AND MORE WINDS. THE WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR AROOSTOOK COUNTY, AND SLIGHTLY LESS FURTHER
SOUTH. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL JET MAY REACH UP TO 45 KT
AT 925MB IN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. SINCE TREES ARE MOSTLY DEFOLIATED
IN THE NORTH, THE RISK OF POWER OUTAGES IS REDUCED.
THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT, BUT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT. THIS
MITIGATES CONCERNS ABOUT STRONGER GUSTS WITH FROPA. THE COLD
FRONT TENDS TO WASH OUT AS IT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA AND ANY
INSTABILITY QUICKLY DIMINISHES AS IT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA
LATER IN THE EVENING. AS SUCH, IT CONTINUES TO PROMISE LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL WITH AMOUNTS NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE MORE
NOTEWORTHY AS 925MB TEMPS DROPPING BY SOME 10C OR MORE FROM
WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE TREND FOR THURSDAY IS TOWARDS LESS POPS DUE TO SHOWERS AS
THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BY AFTERNOON.
A SHALLOW WEDGE OF COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY NORTH WINDS.
DID ADJUST HIGHS UPWARDS SLIGHTLY TOWARDS BANGOR AND DOWNEAST,
BUT THURSDAY HIGHS WILL BE SOME 10 TO 20F COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGING RETURNS QUICKLY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND HAVE ADJUSTED LOWS DOWNWARD IN ANTICIPATION OF SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING BY LATER IN THE NIGHT. THE ONLY CONCERN IS
THE STRENGTH OF AN OFFSHORE LOW IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC THAT MAY
GENERATE A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPECT GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES FOR FRIDAY, BUT FAIRLY COOL
925/850MB TEMPS REMAIN IN PLACE. THAT WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE
LOWER 50S. THE HIGH QUICKLY MOVES OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT A
SHALLOW INVERSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LOWS IN
THE LOWER 30S.
CLOUDS INCREASE FOR SATURDAY AS A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DESCENDS
SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. THERE IS LIKELY TO
BE SOME LIFT ON SATURDAY RESULTING IN SHOWERS. HOW EXACTLY THE
TROUGH EVOLVES REMAINS A LITTLE UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT. SOME
GUIDANCE POINTS TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY. DID BRING POPS TOWARDS LIKELY IN NORTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY. NONETHELESS, THE SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND IT
IS HARD TO ENVISION MORE THAN A QUARTER INCH OF QPF IN ANY
SCENARIO.
THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO FOLLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS SUCH, ADJUSTED HIGHS DOWNWARD
FOR SUNDAY AND WINDS UPWARD. IF ECMWF AND GFS VERIFY, HIGHS MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S IN NORTHERN ZONES. WIND CHILLS
MAY BE IN THE UPPER 20S AT TIMES, A FAR CRY FROM THE LOWER 70S
A FEW DAYS EARLIER. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IN NORTHERN ZONES. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE COLD AIR WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS A WARM FRONT
SEEMS LIKELY TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY LATER MONDAY.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS TODAY. CALM AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING S WINDS 5-10KTS. TONIGHT,
VFR CONDITIONS FOR NORTH TERMINALS WITH LLWS. MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VSBY IN PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FOR SOUTH TERMINALS. S WINDS
5-10 KTS.
SHORT TERM:
WEDNESDAY...IFR CIGS/VIS LIFTS TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. LLWS
EXPECTED BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 30 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR TEMPO IFR CIGS. LIFR CIGS/VIS POSSIBLE
FOR BHB, MACHIAS AND EASTPORT. LLWS LIKELY IN THE EVENING.
THURSDAY...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS IN THE AM, OTHERWISE BECOMING VFR
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SATURDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS NORTH OF GNR AND HUL. OTHERWISE
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY MAY BE REDUCED BY A STEEP
INVERSION AND RESULTANT STABILITY. THE OPPOSITE WILL BE TRUE ON
THURSDAY WITH STRONG MIXING.
ON WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY. GUSTS WILL REACH
UP TO 25 TO 30 KT AT TIMES LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WHILE SEAS UP TO 5 FT ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER ADVISORY SITUATION DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
EVENING WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 KT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...MCW
AVIATION...LAFLASH/MCW
MARINE...LAFLASH/MCW
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