105
FXUS61 KCAR 270626
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
226 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AM WITH THE NBM 10TH
PERCENTILE IN THE DEEPER COLDER VALLEYS IN NORTHERN MAINE.
- LOWERED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
CONTINUED DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. DROUGHT
CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GENERALLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEKEND.
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, MODELS HAVE REMAINED VERY UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH RAIN TOTALS FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY AM COLD
FRONT, AND BACKED OFF ON ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT, EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WILL BE MUCH LIKE
ITS PREDECESSORS: GENERALLY DRY, WITH ANY LOCALIZED RAIN
AMOUNTS BEING LESS THAN 0.10 INCH.
QUIET, DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE ARE
IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND. AS SAID BEFORE, ANY RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT
DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER SUNDAY ON WHEN/IF ANY RAIN COMES.
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A GOOD LIKELIHOOD A STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
NEAR THE REGION WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER EXACT
PLACEMENT WILL DETERMINE IF ANY RAIN OCCURS IN THE CWA.
OTHERWISE, THE DRY CONDITONS IS BAD NEWS FOR THE ONGOING WATER
RESOURCES DROUGHT IMPACTING THE STATE. MUCH OF NORTHERN MAINE,
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN DOWNEAST MAINE ARE EXPERIENCING
ONLY 50-75% OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE LAST 30 DAYS. WHILE
IN THE LAST 14 DAYS AREAWIDE IS LESS THAN 90% OF NORMAL WITH
NORTHERN MAINE. OVERALL, 30 DAY STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX
BLEND KEEPS THE NORTHERN 2/3RD OF THE CWA IN THE MODERATE TO
SEVERE DRYNESS CATEGORY WITH PORTIONS OF THE UPPER ST. JOHN
BASIN NOW DIPPING INTO THE EXTREME DRYNESS CATEGORY.
THERE IS 38 USGS STREAMFLOW GAGES ACROSS THE CWA WHICH REMAIN
DISMAL, WITH 25 OUT OF THE 38 RANKED MUCH BELOW NORMAL (<10TH
PERCENTILE). USGS GROUNDWATER SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW STRUGGLING
GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS, CLAYTON LAKE IS AT RECORD LOW (DEEP)
CONDITIONS ON RECORD (35 YEAR POR). MILLINOCKET, KENDUSKEAG,
HADLEY LAKES AND CALAIS ALL REPORTING BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL
CONDITIONS. FORT KENT IS VERY LOW END OF NORMAL CONDITIONS
APPROACHING SLIPPING DOWN INTO BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS.
THEREFORE, THE US DROUGHT MONITOR CONTINUES THE ENTIRE CWA IN AT
LEAST MODERATE DROUGHT WITH 58% OF THE CWA IN SEVERE DROUGHT,
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO WORSEN WITH CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS. SEE THE LATEST NWS CARIBOU DROUGHT INFORMATION
STATEMENT FOR MORE DROUGHT DETAILS.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING...VFR. FEW250 SOUTH TERMS AND FEW-SCT
050-060 ACROSS NORTHERN TERMS. N-NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. 30KT LLWS AT BGR.
TODAY...VFR. N-NW WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. WSW WINDS 5KTS.
THURSDAY...VFR. SW 5-15KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCE RAIN SHOWERS NORTH.
SW 5-15KTS BECOMING NW 10-20KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. NW 5-15KTS
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON TO
EASTPORT OUT 25NM UNTIL 10AM EDT THIS MORNING. N WINDS 10-20KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT. SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS BELOW SCA ON THE
INTRA-COASTAL WATERS AND WIND GUSTS GENERALLY 30KT OR LESS AND
SEAS 4-5FT ON THE 25-60NM WATERS TODAY. WINDS RELAX TO
GENERALLY LESS THAN SCA CONDITIONS AND 20-25KT ON THE 25-60NM
WATERS.
CONDITIONS DIMINISH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO MARGINAL SCA LEVELS OVER THE COASTAL AND
OUTER WATERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS INCREASE TO 5FT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND 6FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS DURING THIS TIME
BEFORE DROPPING FRIDAY MORNING. NW WINDS FRI NIGHT-SAT LIKELY
LESS THAN 25 KTS. MINIMAL FOG ON THE WATERS THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
051.
DISCUSSION...JS
AVIATION...JS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page