618
FXUS61 KCAR 292329
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
729 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- INCREASED CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE
KEY MESSAGES
1) COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY OVER
WESTERN AREAS.
2) VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AND INCREASINGLY
MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
LITTLE REPRIEVE EACH NIGHT.
3) BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PROVIDE FUEL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
MCV LIKELY TO BE APPROACHING THE CWA TUESDAY EVENING OVER TOP
OF THE H5 RIDGE TUESDAY EVENING. GUIDANCE REMAINS ALL OVER THE
PLACE WRT LOCATION BUT ALL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COMPLEX OF
STORMS MOVING THRU TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT THE INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS AS THE STORMS ENTER THE AREA EXPECT THAT MOST WILL BE
ELEVATED, EXCEPT MAYBE CLOSER TO WESTERN ZONES WITH BETTER
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE GONE WITH
ONLY LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT DUE TO INABILITY TO SPECIFY
ONE LOCATION VS ANOTHER. WESTERN ZONES CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK GIVEN PW VALUES > 2.00 INCHES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH LITTLE REPRIEVE EACH NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HOT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES LANDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS HEAT
COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
HEAT BEGINNING WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE BANGOR AREA,
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AROUND DOVER-FOXCROFT, AND THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST REGION.
IN ADDITION TO THE DAYTIME HEAT, LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL ONLY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS OF
ABOUT THE SAME, WARM AND HUMID NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL
OFFER LITTLE REPRIEVE AFTER THE DAYTIME HEAT. THIS COULD
INCREASE THE STRESS AND HAZARDOUS EFFECTS THIS HEATWAVE HAS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MARINE MOISTURE UP
INTO THE REGION, WITH DEWPOINTS QUICKLY LIFTING INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES UNDER THE RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EASILY LIFT INTO THE 80S THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA, THOUGH SOME PORTIONS OF THE BANGOR AND INTERIOR
DOWNEAST REGION COULD LIFT INTO THE UPPER 80S AND APPROACH 90.
FOR THURSDAY, WINDS SHIFT IN DIRECTION TO OUT OF THE WEST,
REDUCING THE MARINE INFLUENCE ON THE AREA AND INTRODUCING SOME
DOWNSLOPING OUT OF THE LONGFELLOWS. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL
ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO LEVEL OFF SOME, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO CLIMB. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE WEEK, WITH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND THE BANGOR AND INTERIOR
DOWNEAST REGIONS POTENTIALLY MAKING A RUN FOR THE MID 90S. THE
IMMEDIATE COAST MAY HOLD ONTO SOME MARINE INFLUENCE AND NOT SEE
QUITE SO EXTREME OF HEAT.
FOR FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES DECREASE SOME, AND WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHWEST, INCREASING THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECT ON KEEPING
DEWPOINTS FROM RISING OUT OF THE LOWER 70S DOWNEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON, SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE SEVERE.
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF
OUR AREA, ALLOWING FOR WAVES OF ENERGY TO RIDE OVER TOP OF THE
RIDGE AND PROVIDE A SOURCE OF INSTABILITY EACH DAY THROUGH THIS
WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, HOT TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASED
HUMIDITY WILL SUPPLY AMPLE FUEL TO SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. INDEED, NBM FORECAST CAPE VALUES EACH AFTERNOON
REACH AROUND 1000 J/KG THROUGHOUT OUR FORECAST AREA. THOUGH THE
EXACT MESOSCALE PARAMETERS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME SCALE
IN TERMS OF THE EXACT THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT STRONGER STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TONIGHT...VFR. ONLY EXCEPTION EXPECTED TO BE BHB WITH MVFR VSBYS IN
FOG POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09-12Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VSBYS AT PQI AND HUL BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NEAR CALM
OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH. WSW WINDS
5KTS TURNING S IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH S WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AT
BHB STARTING ~16Z DUE TO SEA BREEZE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND TSTMS. MAINLY
AFFECTING DOWNEAST TERMINALS. SSW WINDS 5-10KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR, EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING AND A
BRIEF CHANCE FOR MVFR IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. S/SW WINDS AT 5-10 KT, GUSTS TO 15 KT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: VFR, EXCEPT FOR A CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER
IN ANY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING AND A BRIEF CHANCE
FOR MVFR IN ANY STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. W WINDS AT 5-10 KT, GUSTS TO 15 KT. WINDS SHIFT NW ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY: VFR/MVFR BKN SKIES WITH -SHRA POSSIBLE MOST OF THE
DAY. LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY MORE MODERATE RAIN OR
THUNDERSTORMS. W WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
MARINE
WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH
TUESDAY. SW WINDS GUSTS TO AOA 25KTS OVER WATERS 25-60NM AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SEAS APPROACHING 5FT OUT TO 25NM AND BETWEEN 6-8
FEET FROM 25 TO 60NM. VISIBILITIES TO REDUCED IN FOG OVER THE
WATERS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT.
SEAS MAY INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BECOMING 4 TO 7
FT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL DURING THIS TIME
THOUGH, WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS ASIDE FROM THE OUTER WATERS,
WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS TO 25 KTS. SEAS DECREASE ONCE MORE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. CHANCE FOR FOG TO REDUCE VISIBILITY THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AES/21
AVIATION...AES/21/VO
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