654
FXUS61 KCAR 080641
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
241 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
REFINED TIMING/COVERAGE FOR CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOME MAY BE SEVERE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS ON SUNDAY. ANY
STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
2) SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIT OR MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SOME MAY BE SEVERE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS ON SUNDAY. ANY
STRONGER STORM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD
CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A SERIES OF WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASS OVER THE TOP OF
AN NORTHEAST EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH, AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
IT THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO APPROACH LATER TONIGHT, THEN CROSS THE AREA
ON SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS OF LOW
PRESSURE CROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUNDAY MORNING THEN MOVES THROUGH WESTERN MAINE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTION TODAY,
THE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE SEA BREEZE FRONT.
WHEN THOSE TWO INTERSECT, YOU WILL SEE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR PRECIPITATION AND MOST LIKELY THE STRONGEST LOCALIZED
STORMS. THIS PLACES THE BEST THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE AND THE BANGOR REGION.
IN GENERAL YOU SHOULD SEE AROUND 750-1500 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG
WITH WITH 10-20KT OF BULK SHEAR. THE LOW VALUES OF SHEAR SHOULD
KEEP THE VAST MAJORITY, IF NOT ALL STORMS TODAY BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. WITH STORM MOTION OF 5-15KT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS
MAINLY AROUND 1.5-1.75 INCHES - THERE IS THE RISK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER A CONCENTRATED AREA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED FLOODING AND IS THE MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY.
ON SUNDAY, STORM MOTION INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KT, SO FLOODING
SHOULD BE A MORE LIMITED THREAT. HOWEVER, CAPE INCREASES TO
1000-2000 J/KG AND SHEAR INCREASES TO 20-30KT. THIS INCREASES
THE RISK OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
ACCORDINGLY, SPC HAS MOST OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE IN A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE
MAIN THREAT LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDER POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN AREAS NORTH OF BANGOR, MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE FOR
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY, SO COULD JUST BE
SOME BRIEF ISOLATED STORMS BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OTHER THAN POSSIBLY SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RIVER FOG EARLY
THIS MORNING, NORTHERN TERMINALS SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION. THAT IS IF
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM GOES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL, THEN A PERIOD
OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS (IF PROLONGED HEAVY RAINFALL) IS
POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME, THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM AT ANY
GIVEN NORTHERN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS.
BARING THE SAME ISSUE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AT KBGR FROM LATE THIS MORNING TO EARLY
EVENING, IT SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THEN. THEN MVFR THEN IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING.
AT KBHB, A PERIOD OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE EARLY
THIS MORNING. A STEADY PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP
BY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN
BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR IFR CONDITIONS AS IT PASSES.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR PERSISTENT IFR CONDITIONS AT KBHB
THIS EVENING. AT THIS TIME, THE CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER AT BOTH
KBGR AND KBHB IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS.
OUTSIDE OF STRONGER CONVECTION, AND MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH
THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AT KBGR, WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LATE TONIGHT: VFR, EXCEPT FOR MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS.
SUNDAY: VFR, EXCEPT MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY STRONGER
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IF IT PASSES OVER A TERMINAL. W WINDS G15
KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. WINDS FROM THE W AT 5 KT.
MONDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY AFTERNOON STORMS, OTHERWISE VFR.
SW/W WINDS, GUSTING TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND ANY STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE VFR. LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING W 5-10 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: VFR OVERNIGHT. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
MARINE
WINDS ON THE WATERS OUT TO 60 NM SHOULD BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PATCHY FOG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO 1NM OR LESS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/JMM
AVIATION...PM/JMM
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