726
FXUS61 KCAR 171906
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
306 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- INCREASED WINDS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE LLJ
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.
2) SHOWERY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY, WITH RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS AND BANGOR REGION THROUGH MID THURSDAY MORNING, THEN
SPREADING ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH AT LEAST AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES COMBINED WITH A
MARGINAL WARM CLOUD LAYER OF JUST UNDER 10 KFT COULD SUPPORT
EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES, ESPECIALLY WITH TRAINING HEAVIER
SHOWERS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS MOST LIKELY IN ANY AREAS WHERE
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS TRAIN WITHIN THE DEVELOPING LLJ THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE DEVELOPING LLJ AROUND 925 MB WILL APPROACH 35 TO 45 KTS.
THESE WINDS MAY GET MIXED DOWN WITH THE RAIN, RESULTING IN GUSTS
30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL END OVER MOST OF THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CWA. CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE, THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD SEE CONTINUED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WHILE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVE AROUND THE LOW. COLD
AIR ALOFT WILL HELP INCREASE DIURNAL INSTABILITY. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
EXIST. THE BETTER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL, TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, LEVELS.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.
TONIGHT...ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, VFR. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, VFR
EARLY. MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR LATE WITH PATCHY FOG.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, VFR/MVFR EARLY THEN LOWERING
TO IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS,
MVFR/IFR EARLY THEN LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR WITH RAIN DEVELOPING.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS, INCREASING TO 10 TO 20
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR, WITH RAIN.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHWEST. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
EARLY.
FRIDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, MVFR/IFR WITH SHOWERS. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. VFR/MVFR DOWNEAST.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. SHOWERS LIKELY NORTH. SOUTHWEST/WEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM NORTH. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, BECOMING WEST/NORTHWEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MOSTLY NORTH. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BECOMING
NORTH/NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS,
BECOMING VARIABLE.
MARINE
WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE 20 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS ON ALL
WATERS OUT TO 60 NM THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTS COULD APPROACH
35 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON THE OUTER WATERS OUT TO 60 NM, AND
A GALE WATCH IS IN PLACE FOR THESE ZONES. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS COULD
REACH 25 TO 30 KTS THURSDAY.
SEAS PEAK AT 6 TO 9 FT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MAX WIND GUSTS 25-30
KTS ON THE COASTAL AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS AND 30-35 KTS ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
AND COASTAL WATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ015>017.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR ANZ080-081.
DISCUSSION...ARL/CN
AVIATION...ARL/CN
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