104
FXUS61 KCAR 051226
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
826 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
825 AM UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
- MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT THIS
WEEKEND.
- SLIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND FAIRLY MUGGY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK. SOME
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT AND FAIRLY MUGGY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HOTTER TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS. SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY, THEN SLIGHTLY LESS HOT FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY IN THE NORTH, BUT JUST ABOUT AS HOT FOR THE BANGOR REGION
AND DOWNEAST. TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT MUGGY BUT NOT
TOO BAD. HOWEVER, QUITE A BIT MUGGIER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH DEWPOINTS NEARING 70. SO ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE A TOUCH LESS
HOT FRIDAY TO SUNDAY, IT WILL FEEL JUST AS HOT DUE TO HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. AT SOME POINT, WE COULD APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA OF HEAT INDICES OF 95, MOST LIKELY ON FRIDAY AND IN THE
BANGOR REGION. AS MUGGINESS INCREASES, NIGHTTIME LOWS ARE QUITE
MILD FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A BIT
OF RELIEF FROM THE HEAT NEAR THE COAST MAINLY AS AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES, THOUGH ANY OF THE DAYS COULD GET QUITE HOT BEFORE THE
SEA BREEZE KICKS IN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
WEEK. SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST, MOVING INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT IS STILL UNCERTAIN,
BUT FOR THIS UPDATE, THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG,
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES, AND PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE TRENDING TO A LESS ACTIVE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH
MORE PULSE ISOLATED STORMS DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. BY
SATURDAY, THE LOW INTENSIFIES WITH MORE MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
AREA. UPPER AIR MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL SHOW LONG SKINNY CAPE ON
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT NOW SATURDAY HAS A MUCH MORE MOIST
COLUMN COMPARED TO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, HIGHER PWAT VALUES FAVOR
SATURDAY FOR MORE RAINFALL. NEVERTHELESS, THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO
BE ACTIVE AND MORE MODEL UPDATES ARE NEEDED TO PIN DOWN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TODAY...VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS FROM THE W/SW,
EXCEPT UP TO AROUND S/SW 10 KTS AT BGR/BHB IN THE AFTERNOON AS A
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 30
PERCENT) OF LATE NIGHT RIVER VALLEY FOG AT ANY TERMINAL.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH SW WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.
THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR FOR LOWER LYING
TERMINALS IN PATCHY FOG. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR FOR NORTH TERMINALS
IN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT W WINDS
FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY...MVFR IN SHOWERS. W WINDS 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS S/SW 15 KTS OR LESS TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH 2-4FT
SEAS OVER ALL WATERS. CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ARL/PM
AVIATION...21/ARL/PM
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