947
FXUS61 KCAR 051035
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
535 AM EST THU FEB 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- TONIGHTS LOWS WERE LOWERED IN THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS
OF THE NORTH WHERE A CLEAR SKY AND CALM CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LOW LEVEL INVERSION TO FORM.
- HAVE HOISTED A EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR THE MOOSEHEAD REGION
AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WOODS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AM.
- HAVE HOISTED A GALE WATCH FOR SATURDAY PM INTO SUNDAY PM FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
2) SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY AS A WEAK
TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
3) A CLEAR SKY AND CALM AIR TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN FRIGID LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES THE REGION SATURDAY WITH DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. BELOW NORMAL LEVEL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
OVERALL OPERATIONAL MODELING AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED
THE TIMING OF THE ARCTIC FRONT BY 1-2HRS ACROSS THE STATE. IT IS
VERY MOISTURE STARVED IN OUR AREA AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS
DEEPLY SE OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT
EXPECTED. THE 500MB TROF DIGS DEEPLY TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY
WITH A 504DAM LOW UP OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC AND A 513DAM LOW
DIVING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT VERY
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL BEHIND
FROPA AS THIS AIRMASS IS PURELY ARCTIC.
RUNNING THE NOAA HYSPLIT BACKWARD TRAJECTORY MODEL THIS AIRMASS
ARRIVING AT CAR & BGR ORIGINATED FROM SIBERIA RUSSIA ON JAN
28TH AND STAYED AROUND THE NORTH POLE BETWEEN JAN 29-31ST. THE
COLD AIR BROKE OFF AND PUSHED SOUTH TO HUDSON BAY CANADA THEN
WILL BE ARRIVING INTO MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS VERY
TEXTBOOK WITH A STRONG NEGATIVE AO (-3.5SD), POSITIVE PNA (+1SD)
AND WEAK NEGATIVE NEUTRAL NAO. THE WEAK NEGATIVE NEUTRAL NAO
GIVES CONFIDENCE THIS ARCTIC BLAST WILL BE SHORT LIVED AT ONLY
48-72HRS AND WE WILL RETURN TO SEASONABLE CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE -5F TO +5F
RANGE FROM EASTERN AROOSTOOK TO PENOBSCOT VALLEY INCLUDING
BAXTER SP AREA SOUTH TO THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH THE DOWNEAST THE
BEST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF 0F. FOR THE
MOOSEHEAD REGION INTO THE NORTH WOODS MODELING REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN SENDING AIR TEMPERATURES INTO THE -12F TO -7F
RANGE WITH NBM 4.3 AND 5.0 PROBABILITIES INCREASING INDICATING
BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF REACHING AT LEAST -10F AIR TEMPS. AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS WELL SOUTH OF MAINE AND HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC
PUSHES IN WITH THE 500MB TROF TO OUR WEST GIVES US THE BEST
CHANCE OF A WINDY NIGHT. MODELED SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP 2KFT TO 950MB WHERE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 25-35KT RANGE. NBM OPERATIONAL WINDS/GUSTS
CONTINUES TO BE LOW SO OPTED TO ADD IN NBM90TH FOR WIND SPEEDS
AND INCREASED WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LONGFELLOW MTNS.
THIS REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH NBM 4.3 AND 5.0 QMD WIND GUSTS
PROBABILITIES OF >25MPH GUSTS IN THE 70-90% RANGE IN THE CWA
WITH PROBS OF >30MPH IN THE 65-85% RANGE ALONG THE LONGFELLOWS.
THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SEND
WIND CHILLS PRETTY WIDESPREAD -25F TO -15F FOR THE CWA. WIND
CHILLS RANGING -35 TO -30F ACROSS THE NORTH WOODS AND MOOSEHEAD
REGION WILL BE THE COLDEST SPOTS. GIVEN THIS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE HAVE OPTED TO HOIST AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS AND NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTIES
FROM 7PM SATURDAY THROUGH 10AM SUNDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE WATER AREA
THERE MAY NEED TO BE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IF WIND CHILLS
REACH -25F NORTH AND THEN -20F IN SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH IS
CRITERIA.
SUNDAY WILL REMAIN COLD AS THE TROF REMAINS OVER THE REGION AND
CONDITIONS REMAIN BREEZY. THE AFTERNOON SUN ANGLE NOW PEAKS AT
27 DEGREES OFF THE HORIZON WHICH IS NOW HELPING MODIFY THE
AIRMASS A LITTLE BIT. HIGHS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
NORTH AND 10-15F FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. BREEZY NW WINDS
10-20MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS MAINLY BELOW
ZERO FOR MOST AND AROUND 0F AT THE COAST. SUNDAY NIGHT YET
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH AIR TEMPERATURES PRETTY MUCH CWA WIDE
BELOW ZERO WITH THE COLDEST IN THE NORTH WOODS AND ST. JOHN
VALLEY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WITH 70-90% PROBABILITIES OF REACHING
ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN 1/2 TO 2/3RD OF THE CWA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
TODAY AS A WEAK TROUGH CROSSES THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA TODAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES UP TO 6K FT WITH SOME CAPE UP TO
25 J/KG MAY COMBINE WITH SOME SURFACE CONVERGENCE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE LAURENTIAN MOUNTAINS TO PRODUCE A FEW BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SOUTHEAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS
THAN A HALF INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
A CLEAR SKY AND CALM AIR TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN FRIGID LOW
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING THE
AIR TO BECOME CALM AND FORM A LOW LEVEL INVERSION UNDER A
CLEAR SKY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FRIGID LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS WITH LOWS DOWN TO 20 BELOW IN SOME OF
THE NORMALLY COLDER VALLEYS. THE LOWEST READINGS MAY OCCUR AT
THE PRESQUE ISLE AIRPORT AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTH WOODS. RIVERS
HAVE A THICK LAYER OF ICE NOW, AND SNOW ON THE ICE, WHICH WILL
ALLOW RIVER VALLEYS TO BECOME VERY COLD WITH LITTLE
MODIFICATION FORM THE WATER BENEATH.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY...VFR ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY, DROPPING TO MVFR THIS
MORNING THEN RETURNING TO VFR AROUND MID AFTERNOON. VFR OVER THE
SOUTH. NW WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
TONIGHT...VFR. NW WIND LESS THAN 5 KT.
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.
SATURDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF BKN MVFR CIGS WITH
VCSH/-SHSN IN THE AFTERNOON. NE WINDS AROUND 5KT IN THE AM SHIFT
N 5-15KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF BKN MVFR CIGS AT
NORTHERN TERMS. NW WINDS 10-15KT GUSTING 20-30KT.
SUNDAY...VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SCT MVFR CIGS AT NORTHERN
TERMS. NW WINDS 10-15KT GUSTING 20-30KT.
MONDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT.
MARINE
A FEW GUSTS FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY APPROACH 25 KT EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA TODAY, TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO SCA CONDITIONS SATURDAY MIDDAY
THEN APPROACH GALES IN THE AFTERNOON. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN
HOISTED FOR ALL THE COASTAL WATERS FROM 4PM EST SATURDAY
THROUGH 1PM EST SUNDAY. N-NNW GALES ARE LIKELY DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. N-NNW WINDS 20-30KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT AND SEAS
4-7FT. IN ADDITION TO THE GALES MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS
EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY EVENING TO MONDAY EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE
REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXPERIENCING A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL RELAX BACK
TO SCA CONDITIONS LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EXPECTED TO LAST
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AM. LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AM. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
BE 2-4FT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MEZ003-004-010.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...MB/JS
AVIATION...MB/JS
MARINE...MB/JS
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