762
FXUS61 KCAR 011057
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
557 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN POTENTIAL FOR WINTER STORM BRINGING
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL OVER THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG STORM PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO THE DOWNEAST REGION WITH PATCHY BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
2) WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY
WINDS LEADING TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS MAY IMPACT WEEKEND
TRAVEL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG STORM PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE DOWNEAST REGION WITH PATCHY
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD THAT WILL REACH INTO MUCH
OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY DOWNEAST MAINE. EXPECT THE STRONGEST
GUSTS OF UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WITH WIND
GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AREA AND
PROGRESSIVELY LIGHTER WINDS FURTHER NORTH. LITTLE, IF ANY,
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM BUT IF ANY DOES FALL IT
WILL LIKELY BE IN FAR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AND WON'T
AMOUNT TO ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING. SOME PATCHY BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE BUT WITHOUT ANY NEW FALLING SNOW
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE LIMITED. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
BLOWING SNOW IS ALONG THE COAST WHERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTY
WINDS LEADING TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THIS MAY IMPACT WEEKEND
TRAVEL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
UPPER TROF DROPPING SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO EVENTUALLY CLOSE OFF AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND. A REX
BLOCK DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT A STOP
TO IT/S FORWARD PROGRESS AND MAY RESULT IN SFC LOW DEVELOPING AND
DEEPENING OVER THE WATERS. WITH ENOUGH COLD AIR IN PLACE THIS SYSTEM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REMAIN ALL SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA AND AS IT
STRENGTHENS OVER THE WEEKEND, THE CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW
CONTINUES TO INCREASE.
WHERE THE SFC LOW MOVES LATE IN THE WEEKEND REMAINS IN QUESTION BUT
WITH DEEPENING SYSTEM OVER ERN CANADA STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKELY. THIS SHOULD BRING BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW TO MOST OF THE REGION, LEADING TO IMPACTS TO WEEKEND
TRAVEL.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TODAY...MAINLY VFR. MVFR FOR HUL AND POSSIBLY PQI AND CAR IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME PATCHY BLSN POSSIBLE AT BGR/BHB IN
THE AFTERNOON BUT TOO LOW CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. N WIND INCREASING
TO 10 TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KT,
MAINLY KBGR/KBHB.
TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR. 30% CHANCE OF MVFR AT KBGR AND KBHB
EARLY. SOME PATCHY BLSN POSSIBLE AT KBGR/KBHB BUT TOO LOW
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF. N WINDS 10 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KT AT KBGR/KBHB, DECREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. LLWS AT
KBGR/KBHB/KHUL.
MONDAY...VFR. N/NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
EARLY, DECREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW 5 KTS.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW AT TERMINALS.
CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF IFR VSBYS IN SNOW. NW 5KTS.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE NORTHERN TERMINALS. WNW
5-10KTS.
MARINE
WINDS INCREASE TO GALES ON THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS BY AROUND MID-DAY TODAY.
WINDS DECREASE BELOW GALES ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND ON THE COASTAL WATERS BY MID-DAY. WINDS MAY
DECREASE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA. SEAS PEAK AT 8 TO
10 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND 4 TO 7 FT ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. LIGHT/MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE INTRACOASTAL ZONE MONDAY NIGHT
WITH SEAS REMAINING ABOVE 5FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ050>052.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ050-051.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...21/SM
AVIATION...21/SM
MARINE...21/SM
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