133
FXUS61 KCAR 010315
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1015 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 10:15PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES LOWER IN MANY NORTHERN
ZONES DUE TO CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE START TIMES OF THE MARINE HEADLINES DUE TO HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE CHANGES THIS EVENING WHICH ARE DISCUSSED BELOW.
AVIATION UPDATES WERE MADE DUE TO SKC CONDITIONS. NO OTHER
MAJOR CHANGES.
- CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW
FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AND THAT A WINTER STORM
COULD BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO THE DOWNEAST
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
2) OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH.
3) THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM TO BRING WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS COULD
IMPACT WEEKEND TRAVEL PLANS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STRONG STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL BRING GUSTY
WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TO THE DOWNEAST
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
DOWN EAST AREAS, WHERE GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY, THEN TO THE SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STORM
IS EXPECTED TO PASS FAR ENOUGH TO THE EAST THAT WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY MEASURABLE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE THE INCREASINGLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS DOWN EAST AREAS, WHERE WINDS
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME
PATCHES OF BLOWING SNOW, BUT WITH NO NEWLY FALLEN SNOW EXPECTED,
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A COUPLE OF FAST MOVING NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF A CUTOFF LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY, SIMILAR TO A CLIPPER SYSTEM, COULD BRING PERIODS OF ON AND
OFF LIGHT SNOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. ONE OF THE
CHALLENGES WITH THIS TIME FRAME IS THAT NO ONE MODEL SEEMS TO
HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. SO FAR THIS
WINTER, SNOWFALL HAS GENERALLY EXCEEDED MODEL PROJECTIONS WITH
SIMILAR TYPE SYSTEMS, SO HAVE BUMPED UP POPS A BIT ABOVE THE NBM
TO REFLECT THIS. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE ON AVERAGE
FOR ANYTHING BEYOND LIGHT SNOW FALL IS ACROSS THE NORTH DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS, ITS TOO EARLY TO SPECIFY AMOUNTS AND
WHAT/IF ANY IMPACTS MAY BE HAD AT THIS TIME.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WITH IN A
FEW DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. HIGHS THURSDAY AND LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM TO BRING WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS COULD
IMPACT WEEKEND TRAVEL PLANS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS AGREE THAT SHORTWAVE RIDGING EARLY FRIDAY SHOULD GIVE WAY
TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BE
FOLLOWED BY THE MAIN AXIS OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER HUDSON BAY
APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN BEGIN TO PUSH INTO MAINE SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SATURDAY.
THE RESULT COULD BE WIDE SPREAD SNOWFALL ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN
AND EASTERN MAINE FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WHILE,
THERE STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD OF MODELS ON THE EXACT TIMING,
STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THIS SYSTEM, IT DOES APPEAR THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
PLOWABLE SNOW, IS INCREASING WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS SHOULD BE
BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...VFR WITH SKC CONDITIONS AND FEW-SCT MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMS OVERNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT. NE WIND INCREASING TO 10 TO 20 KT ON SUNDAY WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KT, MAINLY KBGR/KBHB.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. N TO NE WIND GUSTS 35 KT POSSIBLE, MAINLY
KBHB.
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR, EXCEPT FOR MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
MONDAY AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH BLSN. NW WINDS G15-25KT
PROBABLE MONDAY DIMINISHING TO 10KT OR LESS BY TUESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY VARYING BETWEEN VFR
AND MVFR OR LOWER WITH ANY LIGHT SNOW, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. LLWS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WNW-NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
MARINE
UPDATE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 4AM TO
1PM EST SUNDAY FOR ALL THE WATERS. THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM 9AM SUNDAY TO 10AM MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
NOON SUNDAY TO 10AM MONDAY FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. FOR
THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY, MODERATE ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED. FOR THE GALE WARNING, NORTH WINDS 25 TO 35 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT AND SEAS 6 TO 9 FT EXPECTED.
THE GALE WARNING MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY ON
MONDAY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WITH FUTURE ISSUANCES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO SCA LEVEL ON THE INTRA-COASTAL
WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO SUB-SCA
LEVELS ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. ALL WATERS SHOULD SEE SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050-
051.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...TWD/PM/JS
AVIATION...TWD/PM
MARINE...TWD/PM
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