621
FXUS61 KCAR 011824
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
224 PM EDT TUE JUL 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT EXITS ACROSS MAINE TONIGHT. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING AND EXIT TO THE E TONIGHT. FOR THIS EVENING AND EARLY
TONIGHT, HIGH RES SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY SHOWS SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LASTING LATER THAN USUAL DUE TO THE COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS THE WATERS. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS TO THE E AFTER
MIDNIGHT, RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT AS WELL. WITH THE MOIST LOW
LEVELS AND CALM WINDS, PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONT WILL DRAG SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COAST BEFORE EXITING. UPPER AIR MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SW WITH W SURFACE FLOW. THIS WILL PIPE
UP WARM AIR INTO THE REGION BOOSTING TEMPS INTO THE 80S ACROSS
THE REGION. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES IN THE NORTH AND WARM TEMPS,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME CAPE
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES, PULSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD POP UP IN AREAS
THAT SEE CLEARING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS SO
DECIDED TO LEAVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OUT OF THE FORECAST.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
W MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT, KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 60S. HIGH RES MODELS
HAVE A SLOWER FRONT PROGRESSION, SO SLOWED THE RAIN MOVING INTO
THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY,
ENTERING THE THE WESTERN BORDER THURSDAY MORNING AND PUSHING OFF
THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. CAPE VALUES COULD APPROACH
1000 TO EVEN 1500 J/KG THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
IF THERE ARE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THURSDAY MORNING TO ALLOW
FOR INCREASED SURFACE HEATING. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
STEEPEN AS WELL, AGAIN SHOULD THE SURFACE HEAT THROUGH THE
MORNING, AND APPROACH 8 C/KM. AND IN THE PRESENCE OF THE
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH, BULK SHEAR COULD SIT AROUND 30 TO 40
KTS. WITH ALL OF THESE INGREDIENTS TOGETHER AND AN INVERTED-V
PRESENTATION ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH PLENTY OF COOL DRY AIR
ALOFT, THERE IS AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NOT ONLY THAT, BUT THESE INGREDIENTS
POINT TOWARDS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, WITH THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL BEING THE GREATEST
THREAT AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, THIS IS TRULY ALL DEPENDENT ON
HOW WELL THE SURFACE WARMS IN THE MORNING. SHOULD THE REGION
REMAIN IN DENSE OVERCAST SKIES OR LINGERING FOG, THE LOWER
LEVELS MAY REMAIN TOO STABLE TO SUPPORT LATER CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH THURSDAY EVENING DUE
TO LACK OF DIURNAL SUPPORT AND THE FRONT PUSHING OFF THE COAST.
FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE IN ACROSS
THE STATE. THOUGH THIS WILL INTRODUCE A DEEP AREA OF VORTICITY
AND BRING IN A COLD POOL ALOFT, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ABOUT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON FRIDAY. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE
SLOWED HOW QUICKLY THE UPPER LEVELS COOL OF, SUGGESTING MORE
STABILITY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WITH THIS TREND, THERE
REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, BUT THE
SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS WELL, LIFTING TO
AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO SUNDAY, POTENTIALLY RISING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, THOUGH TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN, ALONG WITH HOW ROBUST THIS SYSTEM WILL BE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NEAR TERM: MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT IN
RAIN SHOWERS. ISOLATED TS FOR ALL TERMINALS THIS EVENING.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. W
WINDS 5-10 KTS.
SHORT TERM:
THURS...VFR EARLY, DROPPING TO MVFR/IFR AS A FRONT MOVES FROM NW
TO SE THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN SHOWERS LIKELY, CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH LESS LIKELY AT THE
COAST. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING
WINDS. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS, SHIFTING W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
THURS NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
FRI...GENERALLY VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, THOUGH BRIEF MVFR
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
FRI NIGHT - SAT NIGHT...VFR. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SUN...VFR, DROPPING TOWARDS MVFR/IFR IN ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS GUSTING TOWARDS 20 KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...ASTRAUSER
LONG TERM...ASTRAUSER
AVIATION...LAFLASH/ASTRAUSER
MARINE...LAFLASH/ASTRAUSER
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