545
FXUS61 KCAR 261105
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
705 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES AND LOWERED DEW POINTS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON
- ADDED KEY MESSAGE FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY
- AVIATION UPDATED
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
1) WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE AXIS OF THE MEAN NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. SLOWLY PASSES TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DEVELOPS
INTO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
MONDAY, AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY, AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND/CAPE
COD THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
MONDAY.
THE RESULT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE WILL BE A
BATTLE BETWEEN MARITIME POLAR AIR BEING BROUGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, AND DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE WEST ABOVE THAT
AIRMASS, WORKING TO DRY IT OUT FROM THE TOP DOWN. FOR NOW,
LEANING TOWARDS THE LOW LEVEL MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS WINNING
OUT, AS HIGH CLOUDS COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, SHOULD HELP TO
LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE THAT IS NEEDED TO MIX
DOWN THE DRIER AIR FROM ALOFT. AS A RESULT, HAVE CONTINUED TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER ABOVE THE NBM, AND CORRESPONDINGLY LOWER
HIGHS AND RAISE LOWS BY BLENDING IN THE NBM50 WITH THE NBM FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE, STILL EXPECT
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE COAST, WHERE THEY SHOULD
RUN NEAR NORMAL.
THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH MIXED TO THE
SURFACE WOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. A
MODEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP, WHICH WILL TRANSPORT
COOLER MARITIME AIR INLAND AND LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE
50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE VERY
DRY AIR WITHIN AND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. MAJOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE NBM DEW POINTS, ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF PRECEDING DRY WEATHER,
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT, AND A LIGHT TO MODEST
BREEZE MAY LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PIVOTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
ONTARIO DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME RIDGING
WILL ERODE OVER MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF GREENLAND, CREATING STRONG BLOCKING
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH PROGRESSION TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME CUT-OFF. AT FIRST SOME LIGHTER RAIN IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH WEAK FORCING AND ONSHORE FLOW.
HOWEVER, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARRIVES LATER THURSDAY WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE FROM THE SUBTROPICS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PWAT) VALUES AROUND OR ABOVE 1 INCH. A SLOW MOVING AXIS OF
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. WHILE THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY AND LOCATION OF THE BAND, ENSEMBLES
SHOW THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 50 PERCENT FROM BAXTER STATE PARK SOUTH
AND WEST. SOME SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE 0Z CANADIAN KEEP THE
RIDGING IN TACT AND MOST PRECIPITATION OUT OF NORTHEAST
AROOSTOOK COUNTY, BUT THIS IS A SMALL MINORITY OF GUIDANCE. A
SOAKING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH LITTLE TO NO FLOODING ISSUES IS
MOST LIKELY, HOWEVER THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR HYDRO ISSUES
IF HIGHER END SOLUTIONS SHOWING LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3
TO 4 INCHES IN 24 HOURS OCCUR. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHETHER OR NOT THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BAND STALLS OVER THE
SAME AREA FOR A LONGER PERIOD, AND HOW MUCH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE ALSO ON THE LOWER END AT AROUND 6
TO 7KFT, WHICH WOULD LIMIT WARM CLOUD PROCESSES THAT GENERALLY
LEAD TO HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES.
HEAVIER PWATS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND, BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIKELY
TO REMAIN OVERHEAD AND CAUSE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR CLOUDIER SKIES AND SHOWERS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MONDAY: VFR AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY: VFR. LIGHT WINDS MONDAY NIGHT, BECOMING SSE
10-15 KT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: VFR, BECOMING IFR AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MVFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY WITH -SHRA AND -DZ POSSIBLE. SSE WINDS 5-15 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH PATCHES AND PERIODS OF VFR
AND MVFR/IFR. SE WINDS 5-15KT. -SHRA OR -DZ REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: MVFR/VFR, BECOMING MVFR/IFR LATE AT SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN TERMINALS SUCH AS BGR AND GNR WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
ONSET TIMING OF RA. E WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.
LLWS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL LIMIT WINDS TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS TO 2 FT OR
LESS.
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
DECREASING OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WINDS
AND WAVES, BUT IN GENERAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY OVER MOST WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF
GALE FORCE WINDS IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE OUTERMOST MARINE ZONES, ANZ080 AND ANZ081 (25 PERCENT
CHANCE). HOWEVER, VERY STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE GUST
FACTOR AND OVERALL WINDS. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
AND SOME FOG MAY ALSO LEAD TO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DURING THIS
TIME.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/MWS
AVIATION...PM/MWS
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