890
FXUS61 KCAR 301839
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
139 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-EXPANDED POPS THROUGHOUT NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE TO LAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
-DECREASED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
-CHANCES FOR SNOW HAVE DECREASED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH
LARGE ATLANTIC STORM TRACKING FURTHER OUT TO SEA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RELATIVELY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
2) A LARGE STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL BRUSH THE
DOWNEAST REGION WITH SOME BRISK WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
RELATIVELY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTH AND EAST
GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF THIS EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT THIS EVENING, WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH. ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE REGION, AS WINDS STAY ELEVATED EARLY IN THE
NIGHT. GENERALLY, WIND CHILLS -15 TO -10 IN THE NORTH, AND -10
TO -5 IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO DOWNEAST REGION. SATURDAY WILL
BE RELATIVELY CLEAR WITH A FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS IN THE NORTH,
AND UPPER-TEENS TO LOW-20S DOWNEAST. WINDS RELAX ON SATURDAY,
AND OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS REACH AROUND -15 TO -10 IN THE NORTH,
AND -10 TO -5 DOWNEAST. SKIES PARTIALLY CLOUDY, BEFORE SOME
MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH, DUE TO
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL TO THE SOUTH. THIS COULD
HELP PREVENT ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING, KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING DOWN EVEN LOWER.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A LARGE STORM PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL
BRUSH THE DOWNEAST REGION WITH SOME BRISK WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND TRACK
NORTHEAST, PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE LOW CENTER WILL PASS AROUND 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF OUR
REGION, THE SIZE OF THE SYSTEMS WIND FIELD MEANS SOME BRISK WINDS
WILL IMPACT OUR DOWNEAST REGION WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE
COAST FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BLOWING
SNOW, ESPECIALLY WHERE THERE ARE OPEN AREAS TO THE NORTH, AND
ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW MAY BACK
INTO SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE FRINGE OF
THE STORM BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THIS EVENING - TONIGHT...MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS, AS LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING, WITH
FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR BY TONIGHT. VFR AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS, WITH POTENTIAL PERIODS OF MVFR AT KBGR, DUE TO A
STRAY SNOW SHOWER. CEILINGS BEGIN TO RAISE GRADUALLY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING AROUND 20 - 25 KTS,
WITH A CHANCE FOR KHUL TO EXPERIENCE SOME LLWS TONIGHT. WINDS
W/NW.
SATURDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR/MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS W/NW AT 5-10 KTS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTS UP TO 15KTS IN
NORTHERN TERMINALS SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY...VFR. N WIND AROUND 10 KT OVER THE NORTH AND 15 TO
20 KT OVER THE SOUTH.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR NORTH. N WIND AROUND 10 KT NORTH AND 20 TO 25 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THE COAST.
MONDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLY MVFR NEAR THE COAST EARLY. N TO NW WIND
10 TO 15 KT NORTH AND 20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST EARLY,
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WIND 5 TO 10 KT
TUESDAY...VFR. NW WIND AROUND 5 KT.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLY OCCASIONALLY MVFR OVER THE FAR
NORTH. NW WIND 5 KT OR LESS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLY OCCASIONALLY MVFR OVER THE FAR
NORTH. NW WIND AROUND 5 KT.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR OUTER-WATERS.
NW WINDS AT 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE. SEAS
3-4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY OUT FOR OUTER AND INTRA-
COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING, WITH MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE. FREEZING SPRAY WILL BECOME LIGHT DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. WINDS FROM THE NW TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WINDS SHIFT
W BRIEFLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE BECOMING N/NE SATURDAY
NIGHT.
A LARGE AND STRONG STORM WILL BE TRACKING AROUND 300 NM
SE OF OUR COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STORM WILL BE
TRACKING WELL OFFSHORE, IT HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD WHICH
WILL IMPACT THE WATERS WITH A STRONG GALE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. NNE WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH STORM FORCE WELL OFFSHORE
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE SOME MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE IT WILL BE COLDEST. SEAS
WILL BUILD UP TO 8 FT SUNDAY THEN AROUND 10 FT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE STORM AND THE NNE WIND
FETCH, CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THE FARTHER FROM THE
COAST YOU VENTURE.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...MB/ASB
AVIATION...MB/ASB
MARINE...MB/ASB
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