830
FXUS61 KCAR 141754
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
154 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WETTING RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE COAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK
KEY MESSAGES
1) FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...FAIR WEATHER THIS WEEKEND WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DRIER WEATHER
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY MAY ONLY LIFT INTO THE 70S, AND SKIES
COULD REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY, CLOUD COVER
MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE ONCE MORE AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THOUGH THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THIS SYSTEM
COULD SLOW UPON APPROACH, DELAYING THE ONSET OF MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO CROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT WHICH BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND
OF RAIN AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SCATTERED ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS THEY MOVE
THROUGH AS THERE WILL BE A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SUPPORT, BUT IF
THE TROUGH DEEPENS MORE AND REACHES FURTHER INTO THE GULF,
THERE COULD BE MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DUE TO THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING OF THE COLD FRONT. THE LATEST ECMWF AND CMC
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRIPLE POINT LOW ALONG THE
COAST AS THIS SYSTEM ENTERS OUR AREA, WHICH COULD BETTER ENHANCE
FORCING ALONG THE COAST AND SUPPORT HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH THE DOWNEAST REGION. MEANWHILE, THE GFS KEEPS THE
FEATURE AS AN ORDINARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS-AI MODEL DOES PARALLEL THE COASTAL LOW THINKING,
ALONG WITH OTHER AI GUIDANCE AND THE END OF THE RRFS RUN, SO THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BETTER WETTING RAINS NEAR THE COAST, MUCH
AS THE NBM HAS WITH AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL DOWNEAST.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. IFR FOG POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS EARLY
MORNING, MOST LIKELY PQI AND HUL. NW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NW AT
5 TO 10 KTS BY SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER SKC. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN
RIVER VALLEYS. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. S WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS, GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
TUESDAY...VFR UNDER SKC. NW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR EARLY, WITH INCREASING CHANCE FOR MVFR/IFR FROM
KHUL NORTHWARDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE INTO THE AREA. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS INCREASE TO AT OR
ABOVE 25 KTS OVER THE WATERS FROM 25-60 NM ON MONDAY AS RAIN
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS WITH SEAS RISING TO AROUND 5 FT, BEFORE
DIMINISHING MONDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-
030.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AES
AVIATION...AES
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