705
FXUS61 KCAR 110951
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
551 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
650AM UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
OVER THE NORTH.
2) ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
MAINLY OVER THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LIFT FROM UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTH
TODAY. THINKING THAT MOST CONVECTION WILL BE SHOWERS AS MODELS
ARE SHOWING POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS A RESULT OF A MID-
LEVEL INVERSION THAT MAY STUNT CONVECTIVE GROWTH. THE BIGGER
QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL REACH WHICH WILL DEPEND ON
THE LOCATION OF FORCING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO ERN CANADA ON THURSDAY WITH A
SURFACE WARM LIFTING THRU THE CWA. SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH CAPES BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR > 30KTS. THIS MAY
BRING STRONG STORMS TO THE AREA.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE AREA AT SOME POINT, LIKE THURSDAY
NIGHT KEEPING SHOWERS IN THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THEN PROGGED
TO MOVE THRU DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, ALONG WITH THE COLD POOL WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS.
PWATS ARE PRETTY MEAGER, RANGING FROM 1-1.50 INCHES, HIGHEST OVER
DOWNEAST SO NOT SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AT THIS POINT.
THE HIGHEST TIDES OF THE MONTH WILL BE AT WEEK/S END BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING IMPACTFUL AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TUESDAY: NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TERMINALS LIKELY TO SEE VFR/MVFR IN
SHOWERS THIS MORNING. COASTAL TERMINALS VFR, THOUGH MAY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO THIS MORNING. BRIEF
MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AT NORTHERN TERMINALS DUE TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KTS.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY: VFR. WINDS W AT 5-10 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. LIGHT W WINDS.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY---MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS AND STORMS. SW WINDS 5-15KTS,
BECOMING NW 5-15KTS ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20-25KTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10-20KTS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ON ALL WATERS. SEAS 3 FT OR LESS WITH WIND GUSTS 15
KTS OR LESS.
WINDS REMAIN AOB 25KTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
INCREASING IN CAA FRIDAY NIGHT. WATERS FROM 25-60NM WILL SEE
GUSTS OVER 25KTS ON FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEAS REMAIN BETWEEN 1-3 FEET INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT BEFORE BUILDING TOWARD 5FT FRIDAY NIGHT OVER WATERS FROM
25-60NM.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...21/SM
AVIATION...21/SM
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