640
FXUS61 KCAR 230127
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
927 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH FRIDAY THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING, BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH FRIDAY THEN MODERATING TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING, BUT ANY SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS
STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A CLOSED 500 MB LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST TONIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN MARITIME PROVINCES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE UNSETTLED WEATHER
INTO THURSDAY EVENING, BEFORE THE AXIS OF THE LOW PASSES TO THE
SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, THIS WILL RESULT IN ONE WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING WELL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT, AND A SECOND ONE
CROSSES MAINE ON THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT, THEN MIXES WITH OR CHANGES TO RAIN
ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTH WOODS THURSDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF
THURSDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY SHOULD RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL.
BY FRIDAY, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 40S DUE TO
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. BY
SATURDAY, THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS WILL PUSH THE CANADIAN LOW TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEARER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPS. SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND THOUGH SOME
OPERATIONAL RUNS INDICATING FAIRLY COMPACT S/WV MOVING INTO THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TONIGHT...VFR/MVFR EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR/IFR,
OCCASIONAL LIFR, OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS, POSSIBLY
MIXED WITH SNOW LATE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO
10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR, EARLY WITH LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
VFR/MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS ENDING. VARIABLE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT., OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY.
OTHERWISE, VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NNW 5-15KTS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA LEVELS THIS EVENING ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN AND INTRA-COASTAL WATERS AND BELOW GALE LEVELS ON THE
OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ARL/PM
AVIATION...ARL/PM/CN
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