516  
FXUS61 KCAR 240925  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
525 AM EDT FRI MAR 24 2023  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY.  
LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.  

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.  
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE EXITING LOW WILL HELP KEEP MOSTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS TODAY ALONG WITH  
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY SUNNY SKIES  
DOWNEAST TODAY. EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY WITH NORTHWEST  
WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE  
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES NORTH,  
MOSTLY CLEAR DOWNEAST, ALONG WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH,  
TO THE LOWER TO MID 40S DOWNEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL  
GENERALLY RANGE FROM AROUND 10 TO THE UPPER TEENS NORTH, THOUGH  
LOCALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY COLDER  
NORTHWEST VALLEY LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS, WITH AROUND 20  
TO THE LOWER 20S INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG  
THE DOWNEAST COAST.  

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SATURDAY...  
CALM BEFORE THE STORM SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE  
SURFACE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING, THEN MOVE  
EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. ANY  
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK. EXPECT  
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST. LIGHT WINDS  
SATURDAY AND FAIRLY MILD, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW  
40S.  
 
SETUP FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT STORM...  
THE SETUP FOR THE NEXT STORM WILL FEATURE A VERTICALLY STACKED  
LOW PRESSURE MOVING NE FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN EARLY SATURDAY TO  
SW QUEBEC LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO.  
MEANWHILE, A NEW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/TRIPLE LOW POINT WILL FORM  
AROUND NEW YORK CITY SATURDAY EVENING AND STRENGTHEN AS IT  
MOVES NE TO DOWNEAST MAINE EARLY SUNDAY, BECOMING THE NEW  
PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE RATHER THAN THE SW QUEBEC LOW. THE DOWNEAST  
MAINE LOW MAINTAINS IT STRENGTH AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE  
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY. THE TRACK OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW  
WILL KEEP MUCH WARM AIR FROM MAKING IT INTO NORTHERN MAINE,  
KEEPING THE EVENT PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION  
TYPE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN FOR MUCH OF DOWNEAST  
AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES OVERHEAD LATE  
SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL LIKELY FOR  
THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA, WITH SOME PARTS OF  
NORTHERN MAINE GETTING FAIRLY CLOSE TO WARNING CRITERIA SNOW.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT...  
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE EVENING TO EARLY  
MORNING. TIMING OF ONSET IS PRETTY CONFIDENT AS MODELS ARE IN  
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. IT WILL BEGIN AS SNOW AREAWIDE, BUT  
TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE DOWNEAST COAST VERY LATE  
IN THE NIGHT AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW APPROACHES AND BRINGS AN  
INCREASE E/SE ONSHORE WIND JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW. WINDS DON'T  
LOOK TOO BAD...SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR PERHAPS 35 MPH NEAR THE  
COAST, AND 20-30 MPH GUSTS INLAND...STRONGEST LATE SATURDAY  
NIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE MODERATE IN INTENSITY LATE SATURDAY  
NIGHT, WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM THE STORM LIKELY COMING  
THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY DAY.  
PLOWABLE SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.  
 
SUNDAY...  
THE HEAVIER PART OF THE STORM CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS  
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACKS EAST THROUGH DOWNEAST. MOST OF  
DOWNEAST SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPS  
SURGING INTO THE LOW 40S, WITH THE MORE MODERATE PRECIP TAPERING  
OFF BY MIDDAY. STILL SNOW THROUGH THE DAY NORTH OF ROUGHLY  
MILLINOCKET, THOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING UP TO NEAR OR A  
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE FREEZING IN THE NORTH, IT COULD HAVE TROUBLE  
ACCUMULATING ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON AND PRECIP  
GETS LIGHTER IN INTENSITY. SNOW WILL BE WET/HIGH DENSITY IN  
CHARACTER. WINDS NOT MUCH OF AN ISSUE...GENERALLY 15 MPH OR LESS  
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT...  
THE TRIPLE POINT LOW EXITS TO THE EAST, THOUGH WITH A WEAK UPPER  
TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, LIGHT SNOW COULD KEEP GOING  
INTO THE EVENING IN THE NORTH WITH ANOTHER INCH OR LESS  
POSSIBLE. WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY AREAWIDE, BUT STILL FAIRLY  
LIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. SLIGHT COLD ADVECTION WITH  
TEMPS DIPPING BACK A TOUCH BELOW FREEZING FOR PLACES THAT  
TOPPED FREEZING SUNDAY, BUT HOPEFULLY SLOWLY ENOUGH TO WHERE  
THERE ISN'T MUCH OF A FLASH FREEZE ON THE ROADS.  
 
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...  
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN USUAL FOR A STORM OF THIS STRENGTH AT  
THIS FORECAST RANGE. QUITE CONFIDENT IN GREATER THAN 4 INCHES  
OF SNOW NORTH OF MILLINOCKET. IN THE FAR NORTH, MAINLY NORTH OF  
CARIBOU, THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF OVER 8 INCHES FOR THE  
STORM, BUT THINK THAT IF THIS OCCURS, IT WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BE  
IN A GREATER THAN 12 HOUR PERIOD (OUR WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA IS  
8 INCHES OF SNOW IN 12 HOURS), SO DIDN'T ISSUE A WINTER STORM  
WATCH AT THIS POINT. MODELS/ENSEMBLES REALLY SEEM TO BE IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT ON TIMING, PRECIP AMOUNTS, AND TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACK.  
MAIN ITEM OF UNCERTAINTY IS TIMING OF THE DOWNEAST CHANGEOVER  
FROM SNOW TO RAIN, AND HOW FAR NORTH THE RAIN/SNOW LINE GETS.  
THE EXACT TRACK OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW WOULD DETERMINE THIS.  
THIS WOULD IMPACT SNOW TOTALS DOWNEAST AND WHETHER THERE IS AN  
INCH OR TWO OF SNOW (MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE TRIPLE POINT),  
VS CLOSER TO 4 INCHES (FURTHER SOUTH TRIPLE POINT LOW TRACK  
ALONG IMMEDIATE COAST).  

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
NOT MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE EXITING WEEKEND SYSTEM, AND AREA IS  
LEFT UNDER FAIRLY LIGHT NW FLOW MON/TUE WITH SEASONABLE  
TEMPERATURES. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY  
IN THE NORTH IN THIS PATTERN. TOWARD TUE NIGHT/WED, MOST  
MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH OF VARYING  
STRENGTH/AMPLITUDE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION FROM W TO E. A FEW  
SOLUTIONS DEEPEN IT AS IT PASSES THROUGH AND DEVELOP A  
NOR'EASTER THAT COULD BRING SNOW TO THE REGION, BUT A MAJORITY  
KEEP ANY ACTION S/SE OF THE AREA, WITH THE WEATHER REMAINING  
FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NOT DEVIATING  
TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE. MODELS HAD BEEN TRENDING AWAY FROM THE  
IDEA OF A WEDNESDAY SYSTEM, BUT NEW 0Z ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND 0Z  
GEFS ENSEMBLES HAD MORE MEMBERS TRENDING BACK TOWARD THE  
POSSIBILITY OF A WEDNESDAY SYSTEM. DEFINITELY NEED TO KEEP AN  
EYE ON THIS. TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES FAVOR INCREASED  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  

 
   
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: VFR/MVFR ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY WITH ISOLATED  
SNOW SHOWERS, VFR DOWNEAST. VFR ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION  
TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND  
25 KNOTS TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BECOMING  
VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM:  
SATURDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WIND.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...IFR/LIFR. SNOW...MIXED WITH  
RAIN DOWNEAST. SOUTHEAST/EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP  
TO AROUND 25 KNOTS SATURDAY NIGHT. EAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS,  
BECOMING NORTH/NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS SUNDAY. GUSTS 20 TO 25  
KNOTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...IFR/LIFR SUNDAY EVENING, BECOMING  
VFR/MVFR LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. VFR FOR MONDAY. NE-N WINDS AROUND 10  
KNOTS SUNDAY EVENING, BECOMING N-NW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
MONDAY.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR. LIGHT NW WINDS.  

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF  
THE WATERS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS,  
THROUGH 2 PM. WINDS/SEAS THEN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORY LEVELS ON ALL THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  
TONIGHT, THOUGH A FEW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.  
 
SHORT TERM: EASILY BELOW SMALL CRAFT FOR SATURDAY. EASTERLY  
GALES POSSIBLE LATE SAT NIGHT TO SUN MORNING JUST AHEAD OF THE  
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS SWITCH TO NW LATE SUN INTO  
MONDAY AND DECREASE TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BY  
LATE MONDAY. SEAS PEAK AT AROUND 7 FT SUN.  

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050-  
051.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS  
SHORT TERM...FOISY  
LONG TERM...FOISY  
AVIATION...NORCROSS/FOISY  
MARINE...NORCROSS/FOISY  
 
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