651
FXUS61 KCAR 141930
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
230 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED TIMING FOR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AS FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS EASTERN MAINE.
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEEK AS MAINE WILL ENTER AN
ACTIVE PATTERN. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS GREATER UNCERTAINTY HOW
FAR NORTH IN NEW ENGLAND THIS PRECIPITATION PROGRESSES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. THESE MAY HEAVY AT TIMES, REDUCING VISIBILITY
AND DETERIORATING TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL LOCATIONS.
2. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
AND ALONG THE EASTERN US/CAN BORDER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE.
3. NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND REMAINS IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK. THERE IS INCREASED UNCERTAINTY HOW MUCH HIGH
PRESSURE AND RESIDENT DRY AIR MAY SUPPRESS PRECIPITATION SOUTH
OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE SLIDES JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAWN THROUGH MAINE AT THE SAME TIME WITH SNOW SHOWERS.
MORNING TRENDS HAVE DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF THIS FRONT, AND BROAD
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE NORTH
WOODS AND INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK AND THE HIGHLANDS IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS BEEN ON THE
WEAKER SIDE, WITH STRATUS AND CIRRUS DEVELOPING IN BANDS SLOWLY
OVERTAKING DRY AIR TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME BREAKS
EARLY, BUT EXPECT MORE SHOWERY SNOW TO ARRIVE LATER.
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING PIVOTS SOUTH THIS EVENING, WITH
A HINT OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINATION ALONE CAN
PRODUCE SOME ORGANIZED MOD TO HVY SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE
EVENING AS IT PIVOTS ACROSS THE CWA. THESE WOULD BRING BRIEF
BOUTS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON COOL
SURFACES. GUSTS MAY INCREASE AROUND STRONGER SHOWERS, BUT LOW
LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT TO THE TUNE (LESS THAN 20 KTS GENERALLY) OF
REACHING SNOW SQUALL CRITERIA FOR THIS DISTURBANCE.
ADDITIONALLY, LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WANES INTO MID EVENING AS
DAYTIME HEATING WEARS OFF AND LAPSE RATES SLACKEN.
FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP SOME MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE
NORTH, RESULTING IN POSSIBLY ANOTHER PUSH OF SNOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY EXIT EAST AS PARENT LOW PUSHES
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING JAMES BAY TUESDAY MORNING WILL DRAW
MOISTURE TOWARD NORTHERN MAINE RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW. GFS AND
CANADIAN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PRECIPITATION
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA, BUT ECMWF TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO HOLD
MOST OF THE QPF ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME, THIS PAINTS
GREATER CONFIDENCE IN THE NORTH SEEING SNOW FOR THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING, WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH.
QPF IS LIGHT ACROSS THE BOARD IS LIGHT, THUS MINIMAL TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED UNLESS FORCING CAN SHARPEN UP.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN INTO LATE WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW CARRIES A
NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AT THE
SAME TIME, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS HUDSON BAY WILL HAVE SOME
INFLUENCE VIA DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AND EASTERN MAINE.
ONE TIME PERIOD TO WATCH FOR SNOW IS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT IS
HERE WHERE A CROSS-CONUS JET PUSHES FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO PUT THE
EXIT REGION INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS REGION OF BETTER LIFT,
IF COMBINED WITH A PASSING DISTURBANCE, CAN AID IN CONTINUED
CYCLOGENESIS/STRENGTHENING. TIMING AND EXACT TRACK COMPONENTS
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN, BUT MOST GUIDANCE SOURCES DO SHOW A QUICK
MOVING LOW PRES PRESSING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
GULF OF MAINE INTO THE EARLY/MID WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TODAY-TONIGHT: CIGS LOWER AS A COLD FRONT PASSES NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN MAINE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NORTHERN
TERMINALS WILL SEE THE MOST CONTINUOUS SHSN AND SN, WITH MVFR
CIGS AND IFR VIS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SHORTLY
BEFORE 12Z SUN. SHSN WILL BE LESSER TOWARDS BGR AND BHB ALSO
WITH LESSER CIG REDUCTION/COVERAGE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: MVFR CIGS REMAIN FOR MOST NORTHERN TERMINALS
AND HUL IN AM. VFR BGR/BHB.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: CEILINGS THICKEN AND LOWER AREAWIDE
WITH SN. MVFR WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE, IFR VIS IN SN...MOSTLY
ACROSS THE NORTH.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY KEEP SKIES
MIXED WITH ON AND OFF RESTRICTIONS THROUGH CEILINGS AND SN.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY AT THIS RANGE OF EXACT TIMING AND
IMPACTS.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. WINDS SLACKEN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK, THERE
WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK BUT FAST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS THAT
ENTER THE REGION. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME OF EXACT
IMPACTS AND TIMING. ONE FEATURE TO TRACK WILL BE LOW PRESSURE
NEARING THE GULF OF MAINE AROUND FRIDAY/SATURDAY THAT COULD
BRING INCREASED WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS TO THE COASTAL WATERS.
EQUIPMENT
THE KCBW WSR-88D RADAR AND NWR TRANSMITTERS IN THE CAR CWA ARE
UNABLE TO TRANSMIT AT THIS TIME DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS OUTAGE.
THERE IS CURRENTLY NO ESTIMATED RESTORATION TIME.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-
051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL
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