896
FXUS61 KCAR 220006
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
706 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR DOWNEAST MAINE AND THE BANGOR
REGION FROM MONDAY AM THROUGH TUESDAY AM. DUE TO INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM.
- RAISED SNOWFALL TOTALS ALONG THE MAINE/NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER
INTO AROOSTOOK COUNTY FOR THE STORM BUT REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE
CRITERIA.
- LOWERED SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE
STORM DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS WITH SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS AND
STRONGEST WINDS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE. BLOWING SNOW ALSO LIKELY.
2) A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN AREAS ON
THURSDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY
DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WITH SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS AND STRONGEST WINDS OVER DOWNEAST MAINE. BLOWING
SNOW ALSO LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US SUNDAY MORNING AND STRENGTHEN WHILE MOVING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. THE STORM WILL BECOME
OCCLUDED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND REACH A MAXIMUM
INTENSITY SOUTH OF CAPE COD MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST ECMWF,
ECMWF AI, GEFS AND GFS HAVE THE STORM PASSING JUST SE OF THE
BENCHMARK (40N, 70W) WHILE THE NAM AND CANADIAN HAVE IT INSIDE
OR OVER THE BENCHMARK. THE STORM WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA
ALONG THE OUTER EDGE OF THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A POTENT BAND OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
DOWNEAST REGION. LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLES MEMBERS, THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TRACK BUT MOST OF THE MEMBERS ARE WELL
WITHIN THE MEAN AND TRACK IS STARTING TO BE NAILED DOWN. THIS
STORM LOOKS TO PASS OVER OR JUST SLIGHTLY OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK
RESULTING IN DOWNEAST SEEING THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF WINTER
STORM CRITERIA SNOWFALL. TYPICALLY NAM AND CANADIAN MODELING
STRUGGLE WITH OCCLUDED DEEP STORM SYSTEM TRACKS OFF NEW ENGLAND
BUT A CLOSER TRACK TO OUR AREA WILL MEAN GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS
AND STRONGER WINDS. OPTED TO KEEP THE TREND FAVORING A IMPACTFUL
EVENT FOR DOWNEAST MAINE AND INTO THE BANGOR REGION WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS NORTH AND WEST.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE GREATEST IMPACTS REGARDLESS
OF STORM TRACK WILL BE DOWNEAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SNOW TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE AND BANGOR REGION WITH THE HIGHEST
TOTALS ALONG THE COAST. SNOW TOTALS HAVE THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF >10 INCHES IN DOWNEAST MAINE FROM BAR HARBOR TO
MACHIAS, EASTPORT AND NORTH TO BAILEYVILLE, CHANCES ARE 70-85%.
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 10:1 AS A
RESULT OF A SUFFICIENTLY COLD VERTICAL COLUMN WHICH WILL SUPPORT
DRY, FLUFFY SNOW. HOWEVER, SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED SLRS FROM THE
NBM AS A STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET JUST BELOW THE DGZ MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT CRYSTAL BREAKUP. OPTED TO GO WITH A
10-12:1 RATIO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 13-14:1 IN NORTHERN
MAINE.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM AS STRONG 850MB
FLOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN
GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTS UP TO 50MPH ALONG
THE DOWNEAST SHORELINE AND MDI WITH NBM QMD PROBABILITIES >60
PERCENT FOR MDI OF GUSTS UP TO 50MPH. THIS IS LIKELY TO RESULT
IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND BLOWING SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A CHANCE
OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH THE GREATEST RISK ALONG COASTAL
DOWNEAST WHERE SNOW RATES AND WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST. HOWEVER,
THIS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON STORM TRACK WITH A CLOSER SYSTEM
TRACK FAVORING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND A
FARTHER OFFSHORE SYSTEM TRACK FAVORING A LOWER CHANCE.
REGARDLESS, FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
PUT ALL OF THIS TOGETHER OPTED TO HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH
FROM MONDAY AM TO TUESDAY AM. HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
POSSIBLE. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 6 INCHES
POSSIBLE, THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN DOWNEAST MAINE. WINDS
COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 45 MPH. VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BELOW ONE
QUARTER MILE DUE TO FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW. WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND MAY MAKE TRAVEL TREACHEROUS AND
POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING. TRAVEL COULD BE VERY DIFFICULT.
THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS COULD IMPACT THE MONDAY MORNING AND
EVENING COMMUTES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SNOW MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN IN SOUTHERN
AREAS ON THURSDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT TRAVEL,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST FROM OVER CENTRAL CANADA
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THE LOW
TRACKING THROUGH OR JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN LOW TRACK AND TIMING SO CANNOT YET BE DEFINITIVE
ON HOW IMPACTFUL THE STORM WILL BE BUT LIKELY WILL NOT BE AS
IMPACTFUL AS THE MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT STORM.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE IN NORTHERN
AREAS WHEREAS MORE SOUTHERN AREAS MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR A
TURN TO RAIN DEPENDING ON HOW FAR INLAND WARM AIR REACHES.
GENERALLY EXPECTING LIMITED TRAVEL IMPACTS, MOSTLY IN THE NORTH.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TONIGHT...VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. N WIND AROUND 5 KT.
SUNDAY...VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR ALL SITES, POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR ACROSS
SOUTHERN SITES LATE AT NIGHT. NE WIND AROUND 5 KT NORTH AND 5 TO 10
KT INCREASING TO 15 KT OVER THE SOUTH, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE AT BHB TOWARD MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY...VFR, BECOMING MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH. MVFR, BECOMING
IFR, AND POSSIBLY LIFR MID AFTERNOON, OVER THE SOUTH. -SN AT
SOUTHERN TERMS POTENTIALLY +SN LATE DAY. INCREASING NE WIND 10
TO 15 KT OVER THE NORTH AND 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE SOUTH WITH
POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 45 KT AT BGR/BHB. LLWS LIKELY ALL TERMS. BLSN
POSSIBLE LATE DAY AT SOUTHERN TERMS.
MONDAY NIGHT...MVFR, POSSIBLY DROPPING TO IFR NORTH AND IFR,
POSSIBLY LIFR, SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE. SN AND +SN
POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMS. -SN NORTHERN TERMS. N/NW WIND 10 TO
15 KT NORTH AND 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 45 KTS EARLY AT BGR/BHB. WINDS SHIFTING OVERNIGHT TO THE
N-NW. LLWS LIKELY ALL TERMS. BLSN POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMS.
TUESDAY...MVFR, BECOMING VFR ALL SITES. NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25KT POSSIBLE. DRSN/BLSN POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WIND AROUND 5 KT.
WEDNESDAY...VFR, POSSIBLY DROPPING TO MVFR NORTH. SW WIND
AROUND 5 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DETERIORATING TO MVFR, IFR ALSO POSSIBLE. S/SE
WIND AROUND 5 KTS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. SW WINDS 5-15KT. -SN NORTH AND
RA/SN POSSIBLE SOUTH.
MARINE
7 PM UPDATE:
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS ON THE COASTAL
WATERS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS, BEFORE DROPPING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
WINDS WILL BE BELOW SCA SUNDAY, THEN INCREASE TO SCA THEN A
STRONG GALE SUNDAY NIGHT AS POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TOWARD
THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE. SEAS UP TO 4 FT TONIGHT, 3 FT
SUNDAY, THEN BUILDING UP TO 8 FT BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
E-NE WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALES AND POTENTIALLY
STORMS MONDAY AM ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. INTRA-COASTAL WATERS
WILL HIT GALE CONDITIONS. INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS
REACHING 55-60KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THEN RELAXING BACK TO GALE CONDITIONS
INTO TUESDAY AM.
WILL CONTINUE THE STORM WATCH FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT. FOR THE STORM WATCH,
NORTHEAST WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 KT AND SEAS 11
TO 16 FT POSSIBLE. GALE WATCH DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME FOR THE
INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. NORTH WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 50 KT AND SEAS 6 TO 11 FT POSSIBLE.
WE ANTICIPATE EXTREMELY HAZARDOUS SEAS DURING THE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AM TIMEFRAME. SEAS COULD CAPSIZE OR DAMAGE VESSELS AND
REDUCE VISIBILITY. MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE TO REMAIN IN PORT,
ALTER COURSE, AND/OR SECURE THE VESSEL FOR SEVERE CONDITIONS.
ADDITIONALLY, SNOW WILL BE FALLING AND BE HEAVY AT TIMES
REDUCING VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/2NM. CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
BEYOND INTO MID WEEK...SCA CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY PM RELAXING
BELOW SCA FOR WED. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS LATE WEEK.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MEZ015>017-029-030-032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ050-051.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...AES/MB/JS
AVIATION...AES/MB/JS
MARINE...AES/MB/JS
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