664
FXUS61 KCAR 301510
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1110 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-ALLOWED ALL BUT THE OUTER WATER MARINE HEADLINES TO EXPIRE,
MORE INFORMATION IN THE MARINE SECTION BELOW.
-ADJUSTED WINDS DOWN SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY
-UPDATE FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH AREAS
OF FROST DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
2) AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
3) MUCH WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH FINALLY TWO DRY
DAYS IN A ROW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
CLOUDY SKIES AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINING OVER THE AREA
TDA WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS, WITH HIGHS RUNNING ABOVE 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING AS A BRIEF UPPER RIDGE LEADS TO
SUBSIDENCE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR RADN'T COOLING CONDITIONS AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WITH DECOUPLING LOOKING LIKELY OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED
TREND OF MINS BELOW GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE 30S
NORTH OF DOWNEAST AND INTO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST WITH A FROST ADVISORY LIKELY NEEDED
TONIGHT WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS ACTIVE, ALL BUT THE NORTH WOODS
WHICH DOES NOT BECOME ACTIVE UNTIL MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE ON SUNDAY WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SUNDAY: ANOTHER WAVE DROPS DOWN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
CORE OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVING OVER WESTERN AREAS. THIS MAY
LEAD TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED
JOULES OF CAPE PRESENT BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM.
MONDAY: THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN THREAT MONDAY IS OVER NORTHERN MAINE (MAINLY NORTH OF
MILLINOCKET) WHERE THERE IS A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
TUESDAY: FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT AFTERNOON, THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TUESDAY, IT'S TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE
GREATEST THREAT AREA, AS A LOT DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND
AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
RIGHT NOW, GOING FOR ABOUT A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 20
PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
AGAIN, NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG/SEVERE, OR ANYTHING
TERRIBLY WIDESPREAD ANY OF THE DAYS SUNDAY TO TUESDAY, BUT
ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR THE CHANCE OF
STORMS.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL STILL BE A BIT COOLER
THAN AVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MUCH WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH FINALLY
TWO DRY DAYS IN A ROW WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WITH MEANS FINALLY SOME DRY DAYS FOR THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ALSO REBOUND TO AROUND 70 ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN POTENTIALLY AROUND 80 THURSDAY/FRIDAY. WE ARE
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY/FRIDAY,
BUT JUST HOW MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE IS THE QUESTION. HIGHS OF 75-85
SEEM LIKE A REASONABLE EXPECTATION. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES COULD
BEGIN TO RETURN FRIDAY, THOUGH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FAR
OUT.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TODAY...KFVE LIKELY TO SEE VFR TODAY, WHILE REMAINING AROOSTOOK
TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14Z THIS MORNING. KBGR AND
KBHB IMPROVING AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. NE WINDS 5-15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS, AFFECTING DOWNEAST TERMINALS.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOMING NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR IN SHOWERS. ENE WINDS 5-10KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR, WITH MVFR POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY/TUESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
MARINE
11 AM UPDATE: STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS HAVE LIMITED HOW
HIGH WIND GUSTS CAN REACH. WITH WINDS DECREASING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH
OF THE GULF OF MAINE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA, THE HEADLINES ON
ALL BUT THE OUTER WATERS WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE GALE
WARNING WAS LEFT ON THE OUTER WATERS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS,
BUT MAY NEED TO COME DOWN AS WELL AS WINDS FAIL TO MIX
EFFICIENTLY DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
SEAS GENERALLY 3 FT OR LESS AND WINDS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS REACHING SMALL
CRAFT CRITERIA (25 KTS) ON WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ080-081.
DISCUSSION...AES/21/TF
AVIATION...21/TF
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