226
FXUS61 KCAR 180705
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
305 AM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- ADDED IN SOME FOG ALONG THE COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
MORE DETAILS IN BOTH THE MARINE AND AVIATION DISCUSSION AS A
RESULT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
INTO SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
2) WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUME TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTH INTO MAINE
TODAY LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AND POOR AIR QUALITY DUE TO
PARTICLE POLLUTION.
3) A WETTING RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO HELP
WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL RETURN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING INTO SUNDAY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS INTO THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON IN WARM ADVECTION. AS
THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES NORTHERN MAINE, EXPECT RAIN TO GET
HEAVIER AS A SURGE OF MOISTURE MOVES NORTH. PWATS WILL APPROACH
OR EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE WITH SOUTHERN AREAS SEEING 1.50+
INCHES. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BRING ISOLATED THUNDER TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND THIS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. IT APPEARS THAT LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTH MAY BE ROBBED OF MOISTURE WITH RAIN FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RFQ OF THE UPR
LEVEL JET. MOST AREAS WILL SEE BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF AN
INCH OF RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT BEFORE IT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, A BRIEF SURGE OF COASTAL FOG IS POSSIBLE,
THOUGH AS FLOW QUICKLY TURNS WNW THAT SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH
OFFSHORE BY MID-MORNING AT THE LATEST. AT ANY RATE, SOMETHING TO
BE MINDFUL OF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IF YOU HAVE PLANS TO BE OUT
DRIVING IN THAT AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WILDFIRE SMOKE PLUME TO OUR SOUTH WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH INTO MAINE LATER TODAY LEADING TO REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND POOR AIR QUALITY DUE TO PARTICLE POLLUTION.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LARGE WILDFIRES CONTINUE TO BURN IN ONTARIO NEAR THE GREAT LAKES AND
ADDITIONAL FIRES IN MANITOBA ARE ADDING TO THE SMOKE PLUME. WITH
THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM LATER TODAY, A WARM FRONT LIFTING
NORTH WILL BRING THIS SMOKE NORTH INTO THE REGION LATER THIS
MORNING OR EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY SOUTH. LATEST
HRRR, RAP AND RRFS SMOKE MODELS SHOWS PATCHY SMOKE REACHING THE
DOWNEAST COAST AROUND NOON-2PM THEN TOWARDS EVENING EXPECTING
PATCHY SMOKE ACROSS THE NORTH. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD HELP TO
DISSIPATE THE SMOKE BEFORE IT BECOMES TOO THICK, THOUGH THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND THICKER SMOKE
TOWARDS THE COAST BEFORE RAIN BEGINS. THE LATEST AIR QUALITY
FORECAST FROM THE MAINE DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION
SHOWS UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE GROUPS DUE TO PARTICLE POLLUTION
AREAWIDE TODAY. AN AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MAINE DEP IS IN EFFECT
FROM 10AM THIS MORNING TILL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SEE THE AQA FOR
MORE DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A WETTING RAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TO HELP WITH THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES LATE TUESDAY
FROM THE WEST AND PASSES TO OUR NORTH WITH A COLD FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. A STEADY, WETTING RAIN IS
LIKELY WITH THE SYSTEM. CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 50-70%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 0.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THE STORM WHICH
SHOULD HELP PROVIDE RELIEF FOR SOME OF RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. 30
DAY PRECIP DEPARTURES ARE RUNNING 60-80 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN
THE BANGOR REGION, CENTRAL HIGHLANDS, INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND
ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. NEAR SURFACE SOIL CONDITIONS ARE
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL INDICATING THE RECENT DRY SPELL. LASTLY
THE RECENT DRY SPELL IS NOTICEABLE BY STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE CWA
IN THE BELOW NORMAL TO LOW END NORMAL CONDITIONS FOR THE ST.
JOHN AND PENOBSCOT BASINS. ACROSS THE DOWNEAST AND ST. CROIX
BASIN GENERALLY IN THE BELOW NORMAL TO NORMAL CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TODAY...VFR THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON NORTH OF BGR AND BHB. SMOKE
MAY MAKE IT TO BGR AND BHB BEFORE THE ONSET OF SHOWERS, SO THAT
COULD REDUCE VSBYS BELOW VFR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. VFR/MVFR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH RAIN DEVELOPING, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS, BECOMING VARIABLE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE DOWNEAST LATE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STORMS. S
WINDS 10-20KTS. LLWS VALUES AROUND 30-40 KNOTS AT 2KFT. AS RAIN
DEPARTS, SOME COASTAL FOG COULD IMPACT BHB AND BGR PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...EARLY MORNING FOG AT BHB AND BGR SHOULD
QUICKLY PUSH OFFSHORE AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE W TO NW. VFR,
MVFR NORTH IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS. NW WINDS 10-20KTS
GUSTING TO 30KTS, THEN BECOMING W 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR. W WINDS 5-10KTS, BECOMING S TUESDAY
MORNING 5-15TS GUSTING TO 25KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...DECREASING TO MVFR EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY REACHING IFR WEDNESDAY IN RAIN. S/SE WINDS 10 TO 15
KTS.
MARINE
WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTH LATER
THIS EVENING AND SEAS RISE TO 5-8 FEET BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 19Z SAT-18Z SUN FOR
WINDS AND SEAS. INTRACOASTAL ZONE MAY BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED
SUNDAY MORNING. GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY OVER THE WATERS FROM
25-60NM SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE ISSUED A GALE
WARNING FOR THIS TIME. SOME DENSE FOG <1 SM IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE RAIN ENDS.
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY ABOVE SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA, THEN
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ080-081.
DISCUSSION...CJL/JS
AVIATION...CJL/JS
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