099
FXUS61 KCAR 051807
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
207 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
2) STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN MONDAY AND LASTS AT LEAST
INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING HOT TEMPERATURES OF 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY MORNING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN
APPROACHING OPEN WAVE LOW PRESSURE. INSTABILITY WILL EXIST,
THOUGH BE ON THE LOWER END WITH ONLY AROUND 100 J/KG CAPE AT
BEST AND STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WITHIN THE MARINE LAYER. THAT
SAID, SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DOWN THROUGH THE
INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE AREA AND MORE
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER BY THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY LIFTING INTO THE MID
60S TO LOWER 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN MONDAY AND
LASTS AT LEAST INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK, BRINGING HOT
TEMPERATURES OF 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, A RIDGE IN THE JET STREAM MOVES IN BEHIND IT. THIS RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN AND PARK OVER THE QUEBEC REGION OF CANADA THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
RIDGE WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION AND BRING HOT TEMPERATURES FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY, REACHING THE UPPER
80S AND POTENTIALLY THE LOW 90S. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ABOUT THE HIGH PRESSURE, BUT EXACT POSITION AND STRENGTH ARE A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN WHICH WOULD AFFECT HOW HOT TEMPERATURES
GET.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TONIGHT...VFR DOWNEAST TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS AROOSTOOK TERMINALS
DEVELOPING LATE. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING SE AT AROUND
5 TO 10 KTS.
SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. INCREASING CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. S WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20
TO 25 KTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, MOSTLY AROUND KGNR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY, FIRST AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS. N WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY...VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. N/NW WINDS
5 TO 10 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE EACH NIGHT.
MARINE
GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL
AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-
030.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AES/JMM
AVIATION...AES/JMM
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