999
FXUS61 KCAR 200737
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
237 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-FORECAST TRACK FOR COASTAL LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS, BUT STILL WELL SOUTH OF, THE GULF OF MAINE.
-CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL LATE NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
2) INCREASING CHANCES FOR A MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.
3) SNOW LIKELY, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE COAST
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
ALL RAIN ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN MAINE THURSDAY. THIS COULD
IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND DOWNEAST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BETWEEN WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND AN INTENSIFYING OCEAN LOW EXITING SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF MAINE, WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS
NORTHERN QUEBEC PROVINCE WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE
FORECAST AREA. LIGHT OVERRUNNING SNOW SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS
MOSTLY DOWNEAST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW SHOULD THEN PERSIST OVERNIGHT, TAPERING TO SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS
DOWNEAST/SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES. THIS
SNOW COULD IMPACT TRAVEL. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TOWARD THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH, SHOULD HELP MINIMIZE ANY POTENTIAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
INCREASING CHANCES FOR A MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
00Z MODELS HAVE TRACKED THE COASTAL LOW FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK A
BIT CLOSER TO, BUT STILL WELL SOUTH OF, THE GULF OF MAINE. AS A
RESULT, THE CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF DOWNEAST MAINE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AT LEAST NEAR THE COAST, HAS INCREASED IN THE
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.
CONSENSUS IS GROWING THAT THE CLOSED 500MB LOW DRIVING THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SOUTH OF CAPE COD/EAST OF CAPE MAY AT 12Z MONDAY, TRACK TO
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY MONDAY EVENING, THEN TO THE VICINITY OF
EASTERN NOVA SCOTIA BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW TRACKS SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON MONDAY, THEN SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA MONDAY NIGHT (THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR SOUTH).
TWO THINGS ARE MOST CERTAIN: 1) THAT A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A HIGH TO ITS NORTHWEST WILL PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE REGION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT, STRONGEST OVER
COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE. 2) THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
FORM OF SNOW, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN IS HOW FAR INLAND (IF AT ALL) ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL GET ON MONDAY, THEN AS AT
TRACKS INTO THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT, HOW FAR TO THE NW BEHIND
THE LOW WILL ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD BE. FOR NOW PRECIPITATION
MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOST LIKELY BE LIMITED TO FAR SE MAINE, BUT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT IT COULD WORK ITS WAY UP THE
EASTERN BORDER WITH CANADA INTO EASTERN AROOSTOOK, ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE BORDER. AT THIS TIME, ALL THAT CAN BE SAID WITH ANY
CERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO SNOW FALL IS THAT THE CHANCES ARE
INCREASING FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL (SO AT LEAST 0.1 INCH) ACROSS
AT LEAST PARTS OF DOWNEAST MAINE.
AT THIS TIME, WITH THE WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO BE
FIRST PARALLEL TO THE COAST, THEN OFFSHORE, THERE SHOULD BE
LIMITED IF ANY RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING AND.OR BEACH EROSION
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SNOW LIKELY, EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE COAST
FROM LATE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
ALL RAIN ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN MAINE THURSDAY. THIS COULD
IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING GIVES WAY TO A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, FOLLOWED
BY THE MAIN 700-500 MB NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AXIS CROSSING THE
AREAS THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC BY THURSDAY MORNING, THIS LOW TRACKS
TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
ITS SURFACE WARM FRONT THROUGH DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND
COLD FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS SOUTHEAST OF THE MAINE
LOW, PREVENTING MAINE FROM GETTING INTO THE WARM SECTOR.
FOR NOW, EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY BECOME MODERATE IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY THINK THAT COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE
CHANGES TO ALL RAIN, WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK
DOWN INTO THE BANGOR REGION, WITH SNOW ELSEWHERE. PRECIPITATION
THEN TAPERS OFF AS SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT.
FOR NOW, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ACCUMULATION BEFORE ANY CHANGE OVER, SO DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
SNOW BEGINS TO FALL IT COULD IMPACT THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE,
BUT EVEN MORE LIKELY IMPACT THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, VFR TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
VFR/MVFR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, VFR TODAY.
MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR, TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW. VFR/MVFR
WITH A CHANCE O SNOW SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY, THEN VFR. VARIABLE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST TODAY.
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. NORTH WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT: BECOMING VFR. N WIND G15-20KT AND LLWS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY EVENING.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. E WIND G15-20KT POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: VFR AT KFVE, WITH VERY LOW CHANCE OF MVFR
OR LOWER AT REMAINDER OF NORTHERN TERMINALS. LOW CHANCE AT KBGR
AND LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE AT KBHB OF MVFR OR LOWER. NE-N WIND
G15-25KT POSSIBLE N TERMINALS AND G25-35KT LIKELY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. WINDS PROBABLY BECOMING NW AND DECREASING TO
G15-25KT THROUGHOUT DURING MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY: BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT. NW WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE WATERS, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS, A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TIL 5 PM
SATURDAY. LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS EARLY
SATURDAY. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT, SO HAVE EXTENDED THE SCA THROUGH THEN THERE. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON SUNDAY.
GALES LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLE ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. THE GALES
COULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS WITH SCA
CONDITIONS PROBABLE ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...PM/CN
AVIATION...PM/CN
MARINE...PM/CN
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