312
FXUS61 KCAR 201729
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
129 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- DECREASED THE QPF FOR SATURDAY NIGH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
SOUTHERN LOW TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH, IF ANY, RELIEF THIS
COULD BRING TO THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH, IF ANY,
RELIEF THIS COULD BRING TO THE DEVELOPING DROUGHT AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY,
MOVING INTO QUEBEC BY MONDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST. ENSEMBLES ARE STILL UNSURE
ON THE TRACK OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS.
HOWEVER, THE MODELS DO AGREE ON RAIN BEGINNING LATE SATURDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO LACK FAVORABLE
INSTABILTY FOR SEVERE STORMS, WITH MOST ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDINGS
JUST LOOKING MOIST. PWATS ROUGHLY IN THE 1.75 RANGE, WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DAILY HIGH PWAT VALUE AROUND
CARIBOU. REGARDLESS, NOT ANTICIPATING RELIEF FROM DROUGHT WITH
THESE SHOWERS, AS MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS KEEPING PRECIPITATION
TOTALS MODEST. CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD RESULT IN
SOME HIGHER RAIN TOTALS, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR HOW REGIONAL
MODELS PICK UP ON THIS SYSTEM TO SEE IF ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z...VFR. WNW 5KTS.
TONIGHT...VFR. LOW CONFIDENCE IN BCFG/BR REDUCING VSBY. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FRIDAY...VFR. LIGHT N-NW WINDS LESS THAN 5KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NE WINDS.
SATURDAY: VFR. RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO KBHB AND KBGR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. ESE WINDS 5-10 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT, AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. E WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AT 5-10 KTS, BECOMING SE ON SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MVFR/IFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AFTERNOON. SE WINDS AT
5-10 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING SW ON MONDAY.
MARINE
WINDS BELOW 15KTS AND SEAS BELOW 3FT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED IN FOG EACH NIGHT.
WINDS/SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 25 KTS/5 FT THROUGH SATURDAY,
THEN A CHANCE (ABOUT 20 PERCENT) OF WINDS OR SEAS REACHING 25
KTS/5 FT SUNDAY/MONDAY. FOG LIKELY THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. RAIN
MOVES IN SATURDAY, WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ARL
AVIATION...21/ARL
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