016  
FXUS61 KCAR 082325  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
725 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TONIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
720 PM UPDATE...  
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH  
DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT  
FEW HOURS DOWNEAST BEFORE PARTIAL CLEARING ALLOWS FOR SOME  
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND INCREASES POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG  
LATER TONIGHT. UPDATES WERE MADE TO FORECAST SKY COVER AND  
TEMPERATURES, WHICH WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH FOR  
TONIGHT. MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO LOWER POPS AND THUNDER FOR  
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN TRENDS FOR DRIER AIR AND  
LESS INSTABILITY IN THE 18Z GUIDANCE.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
THE COLD FRONT HAS FINALLY SHIFTED OFFSHORE, PULLING ANY  
LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS OFF THE COAST AND LEAVING BEHIND CLOUDY  
SKIES FOR THE DOWNEAST REGION THIS EVENING. THIS BAND OF  
OVERCAST SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARDS MUCH  
LIKE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, AND EXIT OFF THE COAST LATE TONIGHT  
INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO DRIER WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY  
AND TEMPERATURES LIFTING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S  
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH MAY SETUP  
TO THE WEST, LEADING TO SOME LOCAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE  
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING HOURS.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE NEXT FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE  
WEST, INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES. THAT SAID, WITH HOW SLOW THE  
DOWNSTREAM PATTERN HAS BEEN PROGRESSING, THIS FEATURE MAY NOT  
MAKE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW  
SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTH WOODS AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS LATE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH MILD LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 THROUGHOUT  
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER INCREASING CLOUD COVER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ON THURSDAY, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR  
NORTHWEST IN QUEBEC BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION  
THIS WEEK. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK LOW-LEVEL COASTAL  
LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE PRIMARILY LOW, AS INDICATED IN THE GFS,  
WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG THE  
COAST. FORECASTING RAIN DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, ALONGSIDE A  
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, BASED ON INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN  
THUNDER IS LOW AT THIS TIME, AS MODEL TRENDS ARE NOT  
CONSISTENT, WITH INSTABILITY PARAMETERS RELATIVELY LOW AND LAPSE  
RATES NOT IMPRESSIVE. PWATS RANGE FROM 1-1.50 BASED ON GFS AND  
NAM MODEL RUNS. DECIDED TO KEEP RAIN TOTALS UNDER A QUARTER OF  
AN INCH THROUGHOUT THE STATE. WINDS BECOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT ON  
THURSDAY, BRINGING IN SOME WARMER AIR WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE  
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERE, KEEPING SKIES OVERCAST. EASTERLY  
WINDS KEEP THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE ALONG THE GULF OF MAINE A FEW  
DEGREES COOLER.  
 
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY, QUEBEC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE  
NORTHEASTWARD. OVERCAST SKIES CONTINUE, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN  
THE UPPER 50S, TO LOW 60S. RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO  
THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION  
NORTH OF I-95. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S. VERY  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CROWN OF MAINE  
FROM DUE TO FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND A BIT OF CAPE, BUT  
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE AXIS MOVES OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY  
A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING, BEFORE A LOW-PRESSURE TO THE  
NORTHWEST BRINGS SOME SHORTWAVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY.  
ANOTHER LOW SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCE  
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN  
MAINE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S, GENERALLY  
INCREASING UP TO THE 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS GENERALLY IN  
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM:  
DOWNEAST TERMINALS: VFR AT BGR THIS EVENING, MVFR AT BHB AND  
COASTAL AIRPORTS THIS EVENING, BECOMING VFR LATER THIS EVENING.  
IFR OR LOWER DEVELOPING IN PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT, MAINLY AFTER  
6Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  
 
AROOSTOOK TERMINALS: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY  
AT HUL WITH PATCHY FOG. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  
 
ALL TERMINALS LIKELY TO SEE VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.  
 
SHORT TERM:  
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS  
DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE SE WINDS 5-10 KTS.  
 
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE  
FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS.  
WINDS FROM THE SE AT 5-10 KTS.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, THAT  
WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE S/SE.  
 
SATURDAY–SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS,  
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN TERMINALS IN RAIN SHOWERS.  
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN  
FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE S/SE.  
 
SUNDAY... MVFR CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM LIGHT RAIN  
SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE S AT 5-10 KTS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED BY PATCHY  
FOG TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK.  
 
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA  
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SEAS STAY AT OR BELOW 3 FT OVER THE  
OUTER WATERS, AND AT OR BELOW 2 FT FOR THE INNER WATERS.  
EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS ON THURSDAY, SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY  
FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...STRAUSER  
SHORT TERM...BRENNAN  
LONG TERM...BRENNAN  
AVIATION...STRAUSER/BRENNAN  
MARINE...STRAUSER/BRENNAN  
 
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