286
FXUS61 KCAR 232333
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
733 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
730 PM UPDATE...UPDATE FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
ADDED SMALL HAIL TO THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LESS RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, BUT AREAS OF FOG
COULD IMPACT TRAVEL AREAWIDE.
2) NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR
PLACES LIKE GREENVILLE, HOULTON, AND MILLINOCKET. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SMALL, NON-SEVERE HAIL.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LESS RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, BUT
AREAS OF FOG COULD IMPACT TRAVEL AREAWIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... THE PRESENT WEATHER SYSTEM IS
EXITING, WITH JUST SOME DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT RAIN PERSISTING
MID-LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE RATHER STUBBORN TO LEAVE
THOUGH. EVEN THOUGH WE COULD SEE A BIT OF CLEARING THIS EVENING,
THINK THAT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
FOG WILL QUICKLY FILL ANY AREAS THAT DO CLEAR OUT. HAVE AREAS OF
FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME DENSER FOG,
BUT JUST DON'T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO PUT THIS INTO THE
FORECAST. REGARDLESS, IF TRAVELING TONIGHT, LEAVE EXTRA TIME AND
BE PREPARED FOR LOW VISIBILITIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE AREA FOR PLACES LIKE GREENVILLE, HOULTON, AND
MILLINOCKET. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SMALL, NON-SEVERE HAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL HELP IGNITE
QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY, WITH COVERAGE BEING
NUMEROUS FROM MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON. NOT AN ALL-AFTERNOON
RAIN, BUT A DECENT CHANCE FOR AREAS NORTH OF BANGOR YOU'LL GET A
SHOWER OR STORM AT SOME POINT. SURFACE-BASED CAPES WILL BE UP
TO AS HIGH AS 1000 J/KG, WHICH IS DECENT BUT NOT GREAT. NOT
MUCH WIND SHEAR DIRECTIONALLY OR SPEED-WISE. WITH FAIRLY COOL
AIR ALOFT, THOUGH, COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND ADDED SOME SMALL HAIL IN FOR
PLACES LIKE GREENVILLE, MILLINOCKET, AND HOULTON. THOUGH WE
CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA (1
INCH DIAMETER HAIL), THINK THE VAST MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL JUST
HAVE PEA-SIZED HAIL AT BEST. THINK THAT STORM MOTION WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT FLASH FLOODING THREAT. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LESS FROM BANGOR SOUTH TO THE COAST.
SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY DIES OFF AROUND SUNSET WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE LARGE VERTICALLY STACK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THE CONCERN FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE INTENSIFICATION OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, THUS STRONGER INSTABILITY WITH THE COLD
FRONT. NEWER EXTENDED MODEL RUNS SHOW THE MAJORITY OF THE
INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH, HOWEVER, MID TERM MODELS SHOW LESS
INSTABILITY. THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL REQUIRE NEWER UPDATES TO PIN
DOWN LOCATION AND TIMING.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TONIGHT...VFR DOWNEAST TERMINALS THIS EVENING SHOULD DROP TO
MVFR/IFR AFTER 06Z UNDER LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON HOW WIDESPREAD IFR VSBYS MAY BE THRU MORNING, GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUDS.
HUL, PQI SHOULD REMAIN VFR THRU 04Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
MVFR/IFR AS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP IN HUMID AIRMASS. FVE AND CAR
SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY MVFR THIS EVENING, THOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT BREAKS, BEFORE DROPPING TO IFR AFTER 04Z.
FOG FORECAST IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...
IFR/MVFR SHOULD IMPROVE MOSTLY TO VFR BETWEEN 16-18Z, BUT THEN
SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ESP N OF BGR, WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS
BRIEFLY BRINGING CONDITIONS BACK TO MVFR/IFR. PROB30 HAS BEEN
ADDED TO AROOSTOOK TERMINALS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. NW WIND 10
KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
GENERALLY VFR, THOUGH CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR IN FOG MAINLY AT
AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY: VFR, EXCEPT FOR MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
ANY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS AND MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 10
KTS OUT OF THE S THURSDAY-FRIDAY, RETURNING TO NW SATURDAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EACH NIGHT.
SUNDAY: MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. NNW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS DIMINISHING LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO LESS THAN
25 KTS/5 FEET AND REMAINING AT THESE LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME FOG ON THE WATERS LATER TONIGHT AND WED MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THU-SUNDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050-
051.
DISCUSSION...TF/ARL
AVIATION...21/TF/ARL
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