184
FXUS61 KCAR 260142
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
942 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMER, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THE REST OF
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO PRECIPITATION. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE OVERALL 500MB OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS STARTING
TO FALL APART HEADING INTO SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST SLOWLY AND A 500MB
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO CUTOFF AND STALL OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN QUEBEC BUILDS SOUTH. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON
SUNDAY AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER. HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HAVE LOWERED RHS FOR
TOMORROW INTO THE 35-45 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS GIVEN
THE MODELED SOUNDINGS CONSISTENT WITH A DRY ADIABATIC BOUNDARY
LAYER UP TO 900MB.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND NO PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER FROM THE NBM
MONDAY DUE TO A CLOSED LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE COAST WHICH IS
LIKELY TO BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. BECAUSE OF
THE DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE, THE
MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF RAINFALL, AND THE CORRESPONDING
BUILD IN OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. STILL, MOST MODELS
AGREE ON A SYSTEM BRINGING RAINFALL TO THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY
TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. UNCLEAR YET IF PRECIPITATION REACHES US
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE BUT CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
HINTING AT A HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH NUMEROUS MEMBERS SHOWING
1-3".
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS NORTH LATE.
OTHERWISE, VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MONDAY: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR WITH BEST CHANCE AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NORTH, E/SE WINDS AROUND 5
KTS SOUTH.
MONDAY NIGHT: MVFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
LIGHT E/SE WINDS.
TUESDAY: VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR AT BHB. E/SE WINDS
SOUTH AND S/SE WINDS NORTH 5 TO 10 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR, POSSIBLY BECOMING MVFR LATE SOUTH. LIGHT
E/SE WINDS SOUTH, S/SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS NORTH.
WEDNESDAY: LIKELY MVFR AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND VFR/MVFR
NORTHERN TERMINALS. SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN LATE SOUTH. E/SE WINDS 5
TO 10 KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR LATE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS
WITH CHANCE RAIN. E/SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
THURSDAY: IFR IN RAIN. E/SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS LESS THAN 20KT ON THE WATERS INTO TONIGHT WITH SEAS 1-3FT.
ON SUNDAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT WINDS AND SEAS 1-2FT OR
LESS. BELOW SCA WINDS AND SEAS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ON THE
COASTAL AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS. SEAS INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FT ON
THE COASTAL WATERS AND 8 TO 11 FT ON THE OUTER WATERS BY
THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE TO SCA CRITERIA ON THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH GALES THURSDAY ON THE OUTER WATERS.
SEA SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 38-42F FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST OUT 60NM AND EAST TO THE HAGUE LINE INCLUDING
PENOBSCOT AND PASSAMAQUODDY BAYS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SM/JS
AVIATION...SM/JS/CN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page