841
FXUS61 KCAR 261848
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
248 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- LOWERED DEW POINTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO NORTHERN
MAINE ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY,
WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY FOR A FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
2) SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TO BE
BENEFICIAL FOR THE ONGOING GROUNDWATER DROUGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY, WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY FOR A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE AXIS OF THE MEAN NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. SLOWLY PASSES TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS DEVELOPS
INTO A CLOSED LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC/NEW ENGLAND COAST ON
MONDAY, AS DEEP LAYERED RIDGING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
MONDAY, AS A COASTAL LOW TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND/CAPE
COD THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE ON
MONDAY. MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ON MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE EXCEPT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
WHERE A WEAK SEABREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON KEEPS COASTAL LOCATIONS
IN THE UPPER 50S. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 PERCENT WITH 45-60 PERCENT ALONG THE SHORE.
WINDS ARE THANKFULLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL.
THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 5 C ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH
MIXED TO THE SURFACE WOULD YIELD TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. A MODEST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP, WHICH
WILL TRANSPORT COOLER MARITIME AIR INLAND AND LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ALSO INDICATE VERY DRY AIR WITHIN AND AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER. MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE NBM DEW POINTS,
ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE COMBINATION OF PRECEDING DRY
WEATHER, RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT, AND A LIGHT TO
MODEST BREEZE MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY TO BE BENEFICIAL FOR THE ONGOING GROUNDWATER DROUGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PIVOTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO
ONTARIO DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME RIDGING
WILL ERODE OVER MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TO JUST SOUTH OF GREENLAND, CREATING STRONG BLOCKING
WHICH WILL CAUSE THE TROUGH PROGRESSION TO SLOW AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME CUT-OFF. AT FIRST SOME LIGHTER RAIN IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
ONSHORE PUSH OF MOISTURE. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ARRIVES THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES UP
THE COAST. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
PRECLUDE A MORE DEFINITIVE TIMEFRAME. AMPLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PWATS WILL BE APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
AMPLE RAINFALL WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING SOMEWHERE AROUND 2
INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS WITH A FEW HIGHER END SOLUTIONS SHOWING
LOCALIZED AREAS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. GENERALLY THINKING THAT SOME
OF THESE HIGHER END SOLUTIONS WILL NOT COME TO FRUITION AS
FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 6 TO 7KFT WILL FAVOR LESS EFFICIENT COLD
RAIN PROCESSES AND THERE WILL LIKELY NOT BE ANY ELEVATED
CONVECTION. CURRENTLY THINKING THERE MAY ONLY BE MINOR FLOODING
CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DROUGHT.
HEAVIER PWATS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND, BUT
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIKELY
TO REMAIN OVERHEAD AND CAUSE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
ELEVATED CHANCES FOR CLOUDIER SKIES AND SHOWERS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TONIGHT...FEW-SCT VFR BECOMING BKN VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
MONDAY...SCT-BKN VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LATE MORNING A
S-SE SEABREEZE DEVELOPS AT BHB AND BGR 5-10KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. LIGHT SSE WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY: VFR, BECOMING IFR AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT AND MVFR AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
WEDNESDAY WITH -SHRA AND -DZ POSSIBLE. PATCHY FG ALSO POSSIBLE
AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. SSE WINDS 5-15 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF VFR AND
MVFR/IFR. E/SE WINDS 5-15KT. -SHRA OR -DZ REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: MVFR/VFR, BECOMING MVFR/IFR LATE AT SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN TERMINALS SUCH AS BGR AND GNR WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
ONSET TIMING OF RA. E WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.
LLWS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LIKELY IFR IN RAIN ACROSS MOST TERMINALS. E
WINDS 5-10 KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY RAIN
MOVES OUT WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG IFR CONDITIONS HOLD ON.
E WIND 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15KT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS
1FT OR LESS BECOMING 1-2FT MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS INCREASE TO SCA
CRITERIA ON THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY EVENING WITH WINDS
REACHING CRITERIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ABOVE
SCA CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY. A 20% CHANCE OF GALES ON THE OUTER
WATERS AND COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS PEAK AT 6 TO 11
FT ON THE COASTAL AND OUTER WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT.
SEA SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 38-42F FROM THE
DOWNEAST COAST OUT 60NM AND EAST TO THE HAGUE LINE INCLUDING
PENOBSCOT AND PASSAMAQUODDY BAYS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SM/JS
AVIATION...SM/JS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page