026
FXUS61 KCAR 271120
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
720 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- SLOWING TREND CONTINUES ON RAINFALL FOR MID-LATE WEEK. RAIN
COULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THURSDAY.
- CONFIDENCE INCREASED ON WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY.
2) A SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER IN THE WEEK, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION. DUE TO THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH FAR OFF TO THE EAST, STRONG ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY. IN ADDITION, WIDE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
WILL KEEP THE WINDS FAIRLY WEAK. IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF BRINGING WARM SOUTHERLY AIR, TEMPS WILL INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 80S TODAY AND TUESDAY. LOW DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP HUMIDITY
LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN LATER IN THE WEEK, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING RAINFALL INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, MODELS ARE TRENDING SLOWER WITH THE TIMING
OF A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW THAT TRACKS FROM SOMEWHERE NEAR NE
PA/SE NY/NW NJ WEDNESDAY TO NEAR LONG ISLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING
AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THE CUTOFF LOW TRACKS
SLOWLY ENE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY FRIDAY MORNING, AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES BY SATURDAY MORNING, AS THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY OPENS UP AS IT WEAKENS. THE SURFACE LOW FOLLOWS A
SIMILAR IF NOT IDENTICAL TRACK TO THE UPPER SYSTEM FROM THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
MOST 00Z GUIDANCE SLOWS DOWN PRECIPITATION UNTIL AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY. DO HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR NOW, BUT THIS LIKELY IS OVERDONE.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THE PRECIPITATION INSTEAD OF BEING
WIDESPREAD OVER ALL OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE, COULD BE MORE
CONCENTRATED IN THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST MAINE THAN AREAS
FURTHER NORTH. IT APPEARS ANY RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF FRIDAY
NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING, DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW QUICKLY THE
STORM EXITS INTO THE MARITIMES (NOTE SYSTEMS LIKE THIS DO TEND
TO PICK UP SPEED AS THEY OPEN UP). HOWEVER A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE ENTIRE REGION CANNOT YET BE RULED OUT
FROM THURSDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TODAY...VFR. S/SE WIND 5-10 KTS.
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT, S WINDS
5-10 KTS TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR, EXCEPT FOR LOW CHANCE MVFR
OR LOWER IN ANY PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE MORNING.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS
AND LIKELY AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CALM THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD SEE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT
OR LESS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS 25 KT OR LESS
AND SEAS 5 FT OR LESS ON THE OUTER WATERS.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE ON THE OUTER WATERS, WITH THE INTRA-
COASTAL WATERS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW SCA LEVELS.
WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT -
FRIDAY. THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR SEAS OF 5-6 FT ON THE COASTAL
AND OUTER WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, DEPENDING ON THE
STRENGTH OF A FORECAST EASTERLY SWELL.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ARL/PM
AVIATION...TF/ARL/PM
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