114  
FXUS61 KCAR 221653  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
1253 PM EDT THU APR 22 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN  
MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL  
REMAIN NEAR THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE  
REGION SATURDAY, QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH  
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
945 AM UPDATE: OUTSIDE OF UPDATING FCST HRLY TEMPS/DWPTS TO AFTN  
HI TEMPS FROM TRENDS SEEN IN LATEST SFC OBS, NO SIG CHGS TO THE  
FCST THIS UPDATE FROM THE LAST. LATEST RADAR REF IS SHOWING  
SOME ENHANCED BANDING XTNDG FROM N CNTRL TO E CNTRL AREAS, BUT  
WITH STRONG LATE APR MIDDAY/ERLY AFTN BACKGROUND RADIATION,  
MOST ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY OCCURRING IN SHADED NEAR/WITHIN TREE  
COVERED GROUND AREAS RATHER THAN ROADWAYS, WHICH MAY ACCUMULATE  
A BRIEF SLUSHY ACCUMULATION DURG HEAVIER SN RATES.  
 
CURRENT ENHANCED SN BANDING OVER N AND E CNTRL AREAS WILL  
BECOME SCT SN SHWRS AND WILL LIKELY REFORM OVR THE FAR N TNGT.  
 
PREV DISC: THE LOW IS MAKING ITS WAY TO THE NE WITH A STRONG  
COLD FRONT BEHIND IT. FOR TODAY, THIS FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF  
MAINE BY THIS MORNING. RECENT 1000-850MB THICKNESS MODELS SHOW  
COOLING TEMPS IN AREAS NORTH OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE LOW  
30S WHILE AREAS SOUTH WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S. THIS WILL KEEP  
THE SNOW LINE IN THE NORTH AS THE MOISTURE LINGERS WITH THIS FOR  
MOST OF TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE SNOW AMOUNTS  
PRODUCED. QPF MODEL RUNS AND WPC GUIDANCE HAVE THE MAJORITY OF  
THE SNOWFALL IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION IN  
THE FORM OF HEAVY WET SNOW. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, HIGH-RES  
MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER  
SNOW BANDS WRAPPING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WHICH COULD INCREASE  
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION, TIGHT PRESSURE  
GRADIENTS BEHIND THE SYSTEM WILL BRING GUSTY WNW WINDS ACROSS  
THE ENTIRE REGION FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  
 
BY TONIGHT, THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP WILL MOVE N WITH THE LOW,  
MAKING FOR DRYER CONDITIONS IN THE AREAS S OF THE CENTRAL  
HIGHLANDS. NAM, GFS, AND HIGH-RES MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT  
THE REST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE THE ENDING OF PRECIP AROUND  
MIDNIGHT. THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A LINGERING SNOW SHOWER IN THE  
FAR NORTH AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK NE. THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN, CREATING SOME VERY GUSTY  
WINDS AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH. COLD AIR BEHIND THE LOW WILL KEEP  
NIGHTTIME TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL  
LOWS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL  
BECOME MORE SPORADIC, LIFT NORTH, AND MIX WITH RAIN THROUGHOUT  
THE DAY. A BRISK NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED WITH FREQUENT GUSTS  
OF 35 TO 40MPH AND PEAK GUSTS AROUND 45 TO 50MPH, FALLING JUST  
SHY OF ADVISORY CRITERIA BASED ON CURRENT DATA. DUE TO THE  
INCREASED LOAD OF HEAVY, WET SNOW, THESE WINDS COULD LEAD TO  
TREE DAMAGE ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. LESSER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED  
ELSEWHERE. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE  
FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER  
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. SKIES  
CLEAR ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND WINDS  
DECREASE, BUT A MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF  
A BREEZE TO PREVENT DECOUPLING AND KEEP LOWS FROM FALLING BELOW  
THE 30S EXCEPT IN THE COLDEST SHELTERED LOCATIONS OF NORTHERN  
MAINE.  
 
RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY WITH PARTLY TO  
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TO  
UPPER 60S DOWNEAST TO MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE  
GUSTY BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THE PREVIOUS DAYS. RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
WILL DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT DOWNEAST, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FIRE  
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR FINER FUELS THAT DRY OUT QUICKLY AFTER THE  
RECENT RAINS. INCREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH  
LIGHTER WINDS. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND THICKNESS OF CLOUD COVER,  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO COOL RELATIVELY EFFICIENTLY WITH  
LOWS RANGING FROM THE 20S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOW 40S DOWNEAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
CONDITIONS TURN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED ON SUNDAY AS A COUPLE  
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS APPROACH THE AREA, ONE ALONG THE NORTHERN  
BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM AND ONE ALONG THE SOUTHERN STREAM. LOW  
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE COAST WITH MOST GUIDANCE TAKING IT  
CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.  
HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND  
DETERMINISTIC MODELS SUCH AS THE ICON AND CANADIAN THAT TAKE THE  
SYSTEM FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO KEEP THE AREA DRY. WHILE THEY ARE  
OUTLIERS, THEY DECREASE CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO LIMIT POPS TO  
LIKELY INSTEAD OF CATEGORICAL. A MILD AIR MASS WILL BE IN  
PLACE, SO A MAINLY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SOME MIXING  
REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS DEPENDING ON THE  
LOW TRACK AND TIMING OF PHASING BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED  
SHORTWAVES. UPSTREAM BLOCKING WILL STRENGTHEN AS A NEGATIVE NAO  
FORMS, SO THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WITH SHOWERS AND  
SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES LINGERING INTO MONDAY. DRIER  
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND CAN THEN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS MID-  
WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: IFR VSBY/CIGS WITH THE CONTINUING SNOWFALL. ALL  
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MVFR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND  
VFR TONIGHT AS THE SNOW MOVES NORTH. WNW WINDS WILL BE BREEZY  
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KT. LLWS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS  
TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM: FRIDAY...MVFR/TEMPO IFR VSBY/CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH.  
VFR DOWNEAST. WINDS W 10-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KTS.  
 
FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT...VFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. WINDS W 10KTS  
SHIFTING S AND BECOMING LIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 
SUN-MON...BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. WINDS S 5-15KTS SHIFTING N  
AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS MONDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: INCREASING WNW WINDS AND HIGH SEAS 7 TO 12 FEET ARE  
EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS STILL  
IN EFFECT FOR THIS TIME.  
 
SHORT TERM: A STRONG GALE WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS  
AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TOWARDS SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY  
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE  
FALLING BELOW SCA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS  
INCREASE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. GALES ARE POSSIBLE  
DURING THIS PERIOD DEPENDING UPON THE TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
MEZ003-004-010.  
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ001.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...VJN  
SHORT TERM...MSTRAUSER  
LONG TERM...MSTRAUSER  
AVIATION...VJN/MSTRAUSER  
MARINE...VJN/MSTRAUSER  
 
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