661
FXUS61 KCAR 272210
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
610 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2021
SYNOPSIS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY,
THEN CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
6:10 PM UPDATE: THE WIND ADVISORY WAS DROPPED JUST PRIOR TO THIS
UPDATE. STILL GETTING GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DOWNEAST, BUT THE
TREND WILL BE FOR VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WIND TONIGHT.
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A WELL DEFINED CLEARING LINE THAT
EXTENDS FROM VAN BUREN SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY.
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AREA
OF CLEARING THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT
PORTIONS OF THE DOWNEAST REGION THIS EVENING. ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS AND POPS BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE PICTURES AND RADAR TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
HAS SLOWLY STARTED TO MOVE EASTWARD. HIGH-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOVING EAST TONIGHT,
PULLING THE REMAIN SHOWERS OUT OF DOWNEAST AND OUT OVER THE
WATERS. SOUNDING DATA SHOWS A WELL MIXED LAYER THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WITH 925MB WINDS NEAR 30 MPH, SO EXPECTING GUSTY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME CLEARING OF
CLOUDS THIS EVENING IN THE NORTH WOODS AND HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT A
LOW CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO BE MOVING BACK IN. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS MILD FOR THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY,
THE LOW SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. MODEL WINDS
SHOW A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND
APPROACHING HIGH, CAUSING HIGH WINDS AGAIN, BUT SHOULD STEADILY
DECREASE AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DRY AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL HELP CLEAR OUT CLOUDS IN THE NORTH
AND WEST, THROUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE LOW ARE
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND DOWNEAST FOR THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY THE END OF THE WEEK 1024MB HIGH PRESSURE WL BE BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING NOR'EASTER. SKIES WL BE CLEARING THU
EVENING FM THE NORTHWEST AS RIDGE AXIS BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
MOVES IN FM QUEBEC. UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT THAT
TEMPS IN THE DEEPER VLYS MAY DIP INTO THE MID-20S FRIDAY MORNING.
BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS WL BE BISECTING THE REGION AND
WITH MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TEMPS WL CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. BY FRI NIGHT HIPRES WL SHIFT INTO THE MARITIMES WITH RETURN
FLOW SETTING UP LATE SAT AFTN AS NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE FM THE
WEST.
RIDGING WL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SAT MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING DRG
THE DAY. LLJ OF 45KTS WL BE WORKING IT'S WAY UP INTO CWA BY THE END
OF THE PD WITH AREA OF MODERATE RAIN JUST BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE
WRN AREAS BY 00Z SUN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR SATURDAY IN
RAIN, POSSIBLY MODERATE AT TIMES. THIS WL BE ENHANCE BY LFQ OF
120KTS UPR LVL JET WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. RAIN
LOOKS TO COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT WITH MED RANGE GUIDANCE
OFFERING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLNS FOR MON.
THE GFS INDICATES RIDGING WHILE EC AND GEM HINTING AT A TROF
KEEPING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE ST. JOHN VLY. HAVE GONE TWD NBM
AT THIS POINT, KEEPING THE AREA DRY AND WARM WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY
CLDY SKIES ACRS THE NORTH AND MOSUNNY ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: CLEARING HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF KFVE WITH VFR. THE
CLEARING LIKELY PUSHES SOUTH TO KCAR/KPQI THIS EVENING WITH MVFR
TO IMPROVE TO VFR. ELSEWHERE, FROM KHUL SOUTH MAINLY MVFR
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH VFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN VARIABLE
CONDITIONS. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR THURSDAY AFTER ANY EARLY
MORNING MVFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS FOR
TONIGHT, BUT LOCALLY TO 30 KNOTS AT KBHB AND KBGR ARE EXPECTED
TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: THU-FRI NIGHT...VFR. N 5-15KTS.
SAT-SUN...MVFR DECREASING TO IFR SAT AFTERNOON IN LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN. E WINDS 5KTS SAT BECOMING 5-15KTS SUN.
SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING VFR DOWNEAST WITH MVFR FOR NORTHERN
TERMINALS. LIGHT S BECOMING SW 5-10KTS MON AFTERNOON.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS
THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY, THEN UNTIL 2 PM THURSDAY FOR THE OUTER
WATERS ONLY. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
SEAS 10-15 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT TO 6-10 FT FOR THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM: SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON AND LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 5FT FRI MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SEAS
WL DIMINISH MON MORNING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
NEAR TERM...CB/LAFLASH
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...FARRAR
AVIATION...CB/LAFLASH/FARRAR
MARINE...CB/LAFLASH/FARRAR
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