381
FXUS61 KCAR 211316
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
916 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
9:15 AM UPDATE...RAISED TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH MID MORNING AND TRENDED SKY CLEARER OVER MOSTLY
SOUTHERN AREAS. SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS OVER SOME DOWNEAST AND
WEST CENTRAL AREAS BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO TUESDAY. THE
RIDGE STRETCHES FROM EASTERN ONTARIO AND INTO WESTERN MAINE THIS
MORNING. THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, BUT WILL
NOSE DOWN INTO MAINE. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN
MARITIMES TUESDAY IT WILL STILL HANG TOUGH INTO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MAINE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TODAY, WILL START WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AS A DISTURBANCE EXITS
INTO THE NEW BRUNSWICK THIS MORNING. THE SKY WILL THEN BECOME MOSTLY
SUNNY WITH A BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 5 TO 8 DEGREES (F) ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
NORTH TO THE LOW 60S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS FROM MILLINOCKET SOUTH. A
LIGHT FLOW REGIME WILL ALLOW FOR A WEAK SEA BREEZE AND COOLER TEMPS
ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL, BUT TEMPS WILL BE A
LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE. LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 30S INLAND AND
LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY, BUT THE RIDGE WILL HOLD TO KEEP THE
RAIN AT BAY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
SLOW THE TIMING OF THE RAIN BY SEVERAL HOURS AND TO KEEP ALL
AREAS DRY UNTIL 00Z. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND AN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL KEEP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY,
BUT STILL A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND A SECOND LOW
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT OUR
AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW IN THE ATLANTIC WILL BACK
INTO SW PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MAINE. THE LOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN STATIONARY, ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE
TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT OVER NH. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO SW
MAINE. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT THROUGH MAINE BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE PARENT LOW WILL TRACK
FROM LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TO JAMES BAY AND BEGIN TO FILL.
HIGHER PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING.
LOADED A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM/ECMWF/GEM TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILT OVER THE AREA AT THE START
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FILLING LOW OVER JAMES BAY WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OVER LAKE HURON WILL BE THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA. THE LOW AND DEVELOPING FRONT
WILL MOVE TO WESTERN MAINE THURSDAY EVENING. AN INACTIVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE STATIONARY OVER MAINE ON FRIDAY. FRIDAY
EVENING ANOTHER LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO SW MAINE,
BRINGING RAIN BACK TO THE AREA. THE LOW AND FRONT WILL MOVE
EAST OF MAINE SATURDAY EVENING. HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. A TROUGH WILL TRANSIT THROUGH THE STATE BETWEEN
MONDAY EVENING AND THE END OF PERIOD TUESDAY MORNING BRINGING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS.
LOADED A BLEND OF MODELS TO SMOOTH OUT THE MINOR DIFFERENCES.
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AT ALL NORTHERN AND
EASTERN MAINE TAF SITES.
SHORT TERM:
TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR ALL SITES,
DECREASING CEILINGS CONTINUE BECOMING LOW MVFR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. LOW MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN, CHANGING TO RAINSHOWERS WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THURSDAY MORNING...PARTIAL CLEARING SOUTH
TO NORTH WEDNESDAY EVENING. BECOMING MVFR BGR AND BHB WEDNESDAY
EVENING. EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, VFR BGR AND BHB, MVFR ALL
OTHER SITES.
THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR BHB, BGR, AND HUL. MVFR
CAR, PQI, AND FVE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS, CEILINGS WILL FALL TO
LOW MVFR TO IFR IN SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY...LOW MVFR TO IFR IN RAIN,
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: THE WIND AND SEAS WILL BE WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. AN EAST WIND WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS BY
EVENING. THE SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD DURING THE DAY TUESDAY
AND MAY EXCEED 5 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS BY TUE EVENING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED WITH THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF
LOW END GALES JUST BEYOND THE NEAR TERM.
SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE IN AFFECT FROM
THE START OF THE PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR WINDS OR SEAS
ABOVE CRITERIA.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CB/MCB
SHORT TERM...NORTON
LONG TERM...NORTON
AVIATION...CB/NORTON
MARINE...CB/NORTON
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