247
FXUS61 KCAR 131126
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
626 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
625 AM UPDATE...
ADDED ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS IN FOR THIS MORNING. UPDATE TO THE
AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
NORTH AND LIGHT RAIN SOUTH.
2) LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING
SNOW TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND RAIN TO EASTERN AREAS.
3) ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY ICY ROADS.
4) A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME RAIN SOUTH AND SNOW
NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW
NORTH AND LIGHT RAIN SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL START OFF
AS SNOW, LIKELY TO REMAIN SNOW UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE. FAR
NORTH WILL HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS LATE IN
THE MORNING AS DRY INTRUSION MOVES IN. DOWNEAST LOOKS TO START OFF
AS LIGHT RAIN WITH PRECIP BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE. A QUICK INCH OR TWO IS EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTH BEFORE
SHUTTING OFF. WARM AND HUMID AIR ADVECTING OVER A COLD SNOW PACK
WILL LIKELY BRING FOR TO THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY WILL BRING SNOW
TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND RAIN TO EASTERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A DEEP, FULL LATITUDE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH ACROSS
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG AN ARCTIC
FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL BRING SOME RAIN TO EASTERN
AREAS AS WARM AIR LIFTS NORTH ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW, AND SNOW
TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO OUR NORTH
LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS MUCH COLDER ARCTIC AIR FILTERS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. QUICKLY FALLING TEMPERATURES LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWING THE RAIN AND SNOW MAY
RESULT IN SOME ICY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BRINGING ABRUPTLY COLDER CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY ICY ROADS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
ARCTIC AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE AND
AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO QUEBEC WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. LOWS THURSDAY MORNING WILL
RANGE FROM NEAR ZERO NORTH TO THE MID TEENS ALONG THE COAST AND
HIGHS FRIDAY FROM THE LOW TEENS NORTH TO NEAR 30 BY THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME RAIN SOUTH AND SNOW
NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL
SUPPORT AN ACTIVE PATTERN LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS OF ANY STORM SYSTEMS THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT AND IT
MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE WEEK BEFORE BETTER AGREEMENT CAN BE ATTAINED.
FORECAST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THERE MAY BE A STORM SYSTEM SUNDAY,
BUT DISAGREES ON THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY WITH THE GFS
CARRYING A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING STORM WITH RAIN AND SNOW FOLLOWED BY
STRONG COLD WINDS AND THE ECMWF LIFTING OUT A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW EARLY SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MVFR/IFR THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN AROOSTOOK TERMINALS WITH
LOW CIGS. MVFR CONDITIONS MOVE IN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO AROOSTOOK
TERMINALS BETWEEN 05-09Z, WITH BGR AND BHB LIKELY NOT SEEING
RAIN UNTIL LATE. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND PATCHY FOG.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO LIFR. LIGHT SE WIND.
THURSDAY...IFR, POSSIBLY LIFR AT TIMES EARLY, BECOMING VFR SOUTH
AND MVFR NORTH LATE. LIGHT S WIND BECOMING SW.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR, POSSIBLY BECOMING VFR SOUTH. W WIND.
FRIDAY...VFR, LOWERING TO MVFR OVER THE NORTH LATE. GUSTY W TO SW
WIND.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR NORTH. VFR BECOMING MVFR SOUTH. SW WIND.
SATURDAY...MVFR, POSSIBLY LOWERING TO IFR NORTH. S WIND.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS WITH OUTER
WATERS EXPIRING AT 12Z THIS MORNING. EXPECT SW WINDS TO RAMP BACK UP
TOWARD SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THIS EVENING, WITH MARGINAL GALES
POSSIBLE. WAVES WILL TOP OUT BETWEEN 5 TO 8 FEET WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH SOUTHERLY SWELL.
WINDS WILL BUILD UP TO SCA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY A GALE THURSDAY
NIGHT IN GUSTY W WINDS. THE WINDS WILL DROP BACK TO SCA FRIDAY
AND REMAIN SCA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 5 FT
THURSDAY THEN 8 FT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THEN DROPPING BACK
TO 5 TO 6 FT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ050-
051.
DISCUSSION...MB/21
AVIATION...MB/21
MARINE...MB/21
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