402
FXUS61 KCAR 021429
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1029 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- (AM UPDATE): UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
- CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, ALONG WITH POSSIBLY
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS DOWNEAST.
2) MUCH WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH TWO DRY DAYS IN A
ROW AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS, ALONG
WITH POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
DOWNEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CLOSE OFF TODAY AND START TO
TRACK SE. THE LOW WILL DEVELOP A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTH. UPPER AIR MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE 2 DIFFERENT SCENARIOS.
THE FIRST SCENARIO FOLLOWS THE RAP MODEL WHERE THE COLD FRONT
DEVELOPS SLOWER, THUS THE ONSHORE MARINE FLOW COLLIDES WITH THE
FRONT. THIS CREATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BANGOR
REGION AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST THAT PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON. THE SECOND SCENARIO FOLLOWS THE NAM MODEL WHERE THE
COLD FRONT DEVELOPS FASTER, THUS THE ONSHORE MARINE FLOW
COLLIDES WITH THE FRONT CLOSER TO COASTAL DOWNEAST AND THE
WATERS.
NEVERTHELESS, THERE WILL BE INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT, SO
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW, SO DID NOT INCLUDE STORMS IN THE FORECAST. IN ADDITION,
MODELS INDICATE VERY DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WHICH COULD
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SHOWERS OR THE MAJORITY OF RAIN
WOULD FALL AS VIRGA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MUCH WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH TWO
DRY DAYS IN A ROW AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE MIDWEST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 80 ON
WEDNESDAY AND WELL INTO THE 80S ON THURSDAY OVER INLAND AREAS.
WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AND OUTER ISLANDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE NORTH ON FRIDAY
BUT TEMPS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO RISE INTO THE 70S. INTERIOR
DOWNEAST FCST TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR FRIDAY. RAIN
RETURNS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TODAY...VFR. NW WINDS 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT, THEN
W WINDS AROUND 5 KTS WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. WSW WINDS 5-10KTS, GUSTING TO
20KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR AROOSTOOK TERMINALS IN SHOWERS
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WNW WINDS 5-10KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. LIGHT N WINDS
FRIDAY NIGHT, BECOMING NE 5-10KTS SATURDAY.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY, TONIGHT, AND
WEDNESDAY.
NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. SW WINDS
THURSDAY BECOMING N FRIDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...21/ARL/MWS
AVIATION...21/ARL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page