622
FXUS61 KCAR 252349
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
649 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATE 645 PM
- UPDATED AVIATION SECTION TO REFLECT 00Z TAFS
PREVIOUS
-INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES IN, POSSIBLY CREATING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.
-INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COLD FRONT
PASSAGE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND IMPACTS AND
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR AFTERNOON
TRAVEL.
2) BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING FRIGID WIND CHILLS, THE RISK
OF HYPOTHERMIA, AND PATCHES OF BLACK ICE ON ROADS.
3) SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING, IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND IMPACTS
AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR AFTERNOON
TRAVEL.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC COMBINED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS WILL PUSH A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON SATURDAY. THERE ARE A
COUPLE OF PARAMETERS TO DISCUSS ABOUT THIS FRONT. FIRST, THE
WARM FRONT STRETCHING WELL TO THE NORTH WILL BRING S FLOW AND
WARM AIR INTO THE REGION. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR SATURDAY CAUSING SOME OF THE SNOW PACK TO MELT.
SECOND, THE LLJ AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL CREATE GUSTY S WINDS FOR THE DAY. THIRD, INGREDIENTS
FOR INSTABILITY ARE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT AS NEW MODELS COME
INTO THE FORECAST. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME DECREASING VISIBILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BITTER COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BRINGING FRIGID WIND CHILLS, THE RISK
OF HYPOTHERMIA, AND PATCHES OF BLACK ICE ON ROADS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANY RAINFALL OR SNOW/ ICE MELT ON
ROADS FROM WARMER TEMPERATURE ON SATURDAY COULD QUICKLY FREEZE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL. BY SUNDAY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE DROPPED TO AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTHWEST
AND 20 ALONG THE COAST, ONLY TO RISE INTO THE MID TEENS NORTH
AND NEAR 30 DOWNEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
WILL COME SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM TEN TO TWENTY
BELOW IN THE NORTHWEST TO NEAR ZERO BY THE COAST. A LIGHT
WESTERLY BREEZE MONDAY MORNING WILL COMBINE WITH THE FRIGID
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS DOWN TO THE MID 20S BELOW
ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY MORNING AND THE TEENS BELOW OVER PARTS
OF DOWNEAST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGHS MONDAY FROM THE LOW
TEENS OVER THE FAR NORTH TO THE UPPER TEENS BY THE COAST, WHICH
WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS
EVENING, IMPACTING THE EVENING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
AS OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY CONTINUES TO
MOVE NORTHEAST AND PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, A WARM FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SNOW THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA, AND MAY EVEN LEAD TO
RAIN MIXING IN ALONG THE COAST BRIEFLY BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN
TO DROP ONCE MORE AND PRECIP TYPE SWITCHES BACK OVER TO SNOW.
SOME INSTABILITY EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 8 C/KM AND WEAK CAPE. THAT SAID, A STRONG
INVERSION ALOFT WILL LIMIT THE FULL POTENTIAL OF ANY CONVECTION,
AND WEAKER UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT ANY SQUALL POTENTIAL.
HOWEVER, BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WHICH COULD RAPIDLY DROP VISIBILITIES WITH SUDDEN BRIEF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS QUITE POSSIBLE.
SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WITH THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS BEING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AMPLIFYING THE SNOW SHOWER
THREAT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND ANOTHER UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN SCT -SHSN. S WIND AROUND 5 KT. LLWS EARLY
THIS EVENING N.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR EARLY, IMPROVING TO VFR. W WINDS 5 TO 10
KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH SKC AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS GRADUALLY
DECREASING, EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FRIDAY...VFR. W WIND AROUND 5 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR DROPPING TO IFR SOUTH LATE, AND DROPPING TO MVFR
OVER THE NORTH LATE. S WIND 5 KT INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KT LATE.
SATURDAY...MVFR BECOMING IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS NORTH. VFR SOUTH.
S WIND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. W WIND 5 TO 10 KT.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR. NW WIND AROUND 10 KT.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY ON THE OUTERWATERS, WITH WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS
AND SEAS 5 TO 7 FT. CONDITIONS WILL FURTHER IMPROVE THURSDAY
NIGHT, FALLING BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES.
LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY MAY BUILD IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SCA WILL BE NEEDED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING FOR S
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 30 KT. A SCA AND POSSIBLY A GALE WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED LATE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NW WINDS GUSTING UP
TO 30 TO 35 KT. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. SEAS 5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT DROPPING TO 4 FT
FRIDAY, THEN RISING TO 5 FT FRIDAY NIGHT AND 7 FT ON SATURDAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE SOUTHERLY. SEAS DROPPING BACK TO 4 FT BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
DISCUSSION...AES/ARL/JMM
AVIATION...TWD/ARL
MARINE...AES/ARL
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