121
FXUS61 KCAR 192331
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
631 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE W THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL CROSS
THE REGION THU. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRI THEN
EXIT ACROSS THE MARITIMES SAT. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN SUN WITH
WEAK LOW PRESSURE RETURNING ON MON.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
630 PM UPDATE...
ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS STRATOCU
CONTINUES OVER THE NORTH. EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT OVER THE NORTH AS WINDS SLOWLY
SHIFT TOWARD THE MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
*KEY MESSAGES:
-COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT
-DRY AND MILD WEATHER THURSDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA AND
INTO THE LABRADOR REGION HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST. AS HIGH PRESSURE ENTERS THE REGION THIS WILL FAVOR DRY
WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNEAST TONIGHT. A FEW MORE
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
DOWNEAST AND LIGHT WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE
-3 TO -6C RANGE SHOULD LEAD TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S.
THE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER OUR AREA BY MORNING AND REMAIN
IN PLACE ON THURSDAY LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER.
LIGHT WINDS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S NORTH AND
UPPER 30S DOWNEAST ARE EXPECTED.
ON THURSDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN OCCLUDED FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS COOL AS TONIGHT DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER. LOWER 20S LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH MID 20S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
*KEY MESSAGES
-LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW FRIDAY EVE INTO SATURDAY AM, MINIMAL
TRAVEL IMPACTS
-BREEZY & COLDER SATURDAY, WATCHING OFFSHORE LOW
DISCUSSION...
500MB TROF FRIDAY AM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW IN ONTARIO
NEARING QUEBEC. A WARM OCCLUSION AT THE SURFACE WILL BE TRACKING
E AHEAD OF IT IN QUEBEC. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CWA
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH WITH LOW TO
MID 40S FOR THE DOWNEAST TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK
WHICH WILL HELP WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. INCREASING
ELONGATED PV WILL EXTEND OUT OVER NORTHERN MAINE AS THE WARM
OCCLUSION PUSHES TO THE MAINE/QUEBEC BORDER DURING THE DAY.
INCREASING POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING
COMPARED TO NBM WITH SEVERAL GLOBALS AND CAMS SHOWING VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS IN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING AND MOST DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 32F EXPECT IT TO
BE MAINLY RAIN AFTER ANY PERIOD OF VIRGA.
FRIDAY NIGHT THIS IS A MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM BUT AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS AND TEMPERATURES COOL EXPECTING RAIN TO
MIX AND CHANGE TO SNOW NORTH. WE WILL BE RUNNING OUT OF MOISTURE
AND GIVEN THE WARMER BOUNDARY LAYER NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY
ACCUMULATIONS, PERHAPS JUST A DUSTING. BEST CHANCE OF A DUSTING
WILL BE THE ST. JOHN VALLEY BACK INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
NORTH WOODS WHERE NBM PROBABILITIES OF 0.1+ INCH IS 45-60
PERCENT. ANY STEADY LIGHT PRECIP TAPERS TO SHOWERS AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
KICKS IN.
SATURDAY A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AS THE OCCLUDED FRONT SLIDES OFFSHORE. A LOT OF MEMBERS OF
THE GLOBALS ALONG WITH THE DETERMINISTICS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ON THE TAIL OF THE FRONT. LATEST GFS OPERATIONAL
SHOWS IT TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF CAPE COD ACROSS GEORGES BANK
TOWARDS NOVA SCOTIA ON SATURDAY. THIS POTENTIALLY COULD BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR POPS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS TO NEAR THE MAINE
COAST. NBM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THAT IDEA BUT WITH 06Z AND NEWEST
12Z ECMWF STAYING OFFSHORE WILL KEEP THE POPS HEAVILY CONFINED
TO FAR DOWNEAST AND OFFSHORE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DEVELOPING LOW BUT MOST AREAS
EXPERIENCE NW COLD AIR ADVECTION CU. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S NORTH AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WITH 40-45F FOR BANGOR
REGION TO DOWNEAST COAST. BRIEFLY DURING THE DAY THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND EXPECTING NW WINDS 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS
15-25MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL
KEEP WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S NORTH AND CENTRAL WITH 30S BANGOR TO
DOWNEAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
*KEY MESSAGES
-THANKSGIVING WEEK STARTS MAINLY DRY & SEASONABLE, GOOD FOR TRAVEL!
-PATTERN POTENTIALLY TURNS ACTIVE MID TO LATE WEEK
DISCUSSION...
THE 500MB PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY PASSING THROUGH THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND.
EXPECTING A DRY SUNDAY WITH LOWS STARTING OUT IN THE TEENS TO
LOW 20S ACROSS THE AREA FROM SAT NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S NORTH WITH UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F FOR BANGOR REGION
TO DOWNEAST COASTLINE. SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECT LOW TO MID 20S FOR
MOST BUT UPPER 20S ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
THE SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WILL BE A LITTLE MORE POTENT SO
EXPECTING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS FOR CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ZONES. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH AND LOW
40S BANGOR REGION WITH MID 40S AT THE COAST. WILL NEED TO WATCH
HOW MONDAY PLAYS OUT, THE ECMWF 12Z OPERATIONAL HAS HINTED AT A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MAINE AS IT PIVOTS THE
500MB TROF.
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA. WEAK BACKSIDE INCREASED PV PASSES THROUGH WHICH COULD
KICK OFF AN ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWER BUT MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN
DRY. START THE DAY IN THE 20S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S
NORTH AND 40S SOUTH. IN TERMS OF THANKSGIVING WEEK TRAVEL WE ARE
LOOKING AT GOOD DAYS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MIDWEEK THERE CONTINUES TO BE INDICATION OF A SYSTEM WORKING
INTO THE AREA THAT COULD POSE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS. THERE
REMAINS TIMING DIFFERENCES, UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PLACEMENT
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL CHANGE THE SURFACE CONDITIONS. FOR NOW
STUCK VERY CLOSE TO NBM WITH CHANCE POPS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. AT
THIS POINT LOOKS MORE WET THAN WHITE IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR NEXT 24 HOURS. BKN LOW VFR CIGS OVER THE
AROOSTOOK TERMINALS WILL SCATTER OUT LATER TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WNW THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: FRI...VFR TURNING MVFR CIGS LATE NORTH. VCSH NORTH
THEN -SHRA/-SHSN LATE. S WINDS 5-15KT.
FRI NIGHT...MVFR WITH IFR NORTH. -RASN NORTH AND -RA SOUTH
TERMS. S WINDS 5-15KT SHIFTING W LATE NIGHT.
SAT...VFR SOUTH, MVFR CIGS NORTH. NW WINDS 5-15KT GUSTING
15-25KT.
SUN...VFR. W WINDS 5-10KT.
MON...VFR/MVFR. -SHRA/-SHSN. W WINDS 5-10KT.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. N/NW WINDS BECOME LIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SEAS 1 TO 2 FT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. SEAS
1-2FT FRIDAY AS SW WINDS INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY
EVENING SW WINDS WILL APPROACH LOW END SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS SHIFT NW SATURDAY MORNING AND WILL
BECOME GUSTY. SCA GUSTS LIKELY OVER ALL THE WATERS UNTIL LATE
SATURDAY EVENING. ONLY EXPECTING SEAS 2-4FT DURING THESE SCA
CONDITIONS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...21/SM
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...21/SM/JS
MARINE...21/SM/JS
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