358
FXUS61 KCAR 111803
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
203 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- LOWERED TEMPS ON FRIDAY GIVEN CLOUDS AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING IN FROM CANADA.
- LOWERED TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GIVEN CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOCUSED INLAND.
2) COLD FRONT APPROACHES SATURDAY AND PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOCUSED INLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE MARITIMES ON FRIDAY WILL
RESULT IN STRONG EASTERLY-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CWA
TOMORROW. THIS WILL USHER IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LEADING TO
RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPS, WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE MID-UP 70
ACROSS THE EAST AND LOWER 80S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS IN THE WEST.
MAY NOT HAVE GONE COOL ENOUGH GIVEN THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE DATA BUT DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO EXTREME BUT DID WANT TO
SHOW A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS FOR HIGHS TOMORROW.
SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME THUNDER CHANCES
TOMORROW, MAINLY OVER WRN ZONES WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE SATURDAY AND PASSES
THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN AS IT MOVES
FROM WEST TO EAST, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF SOME MODEST CAPE (~100J/KG)
AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT. LIGHT
SSE WINDS.
TONIGHT...BHB WILL SEE MVFR VSBYS WITH A HINT OF IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AFTER 01Z AND WILL DROP TO LIFR AFTER 06Z. BGR WILL
DROP TO MVFR AFTER 04Z AND TO IFR AFTER 06Z. DOWNEAST TERMINALS
TO REMAIN IFR THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.
AROOSTOOK TERMINALS, VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING, THEN
DROPPING TO MVFR AFTER 08Z AT FVE AND AFTER 09Z AT CAR, PQI AND
HUL. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
FRIDAY...NORTHERN TERMINALS TO START OFF AT LOW MVFR OR IFR
SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. DOWNEAST TERMINALS
WILL REMAIN LOW MVFR/IFR ALL DAY. LIGHT SHOWERS AT ALL TERMINALS
POSSIBLE. ESE WINDS 5-10KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER DUE TO SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLE TSTMS.
SE WINDS 5-10KTS.
SATURDAY...VFR AT MOST TERMINALS, EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS AT NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. W WINDS AT
5-10KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT S WINDS.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...MVFR, OR LOWER, DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING AND DAY. S WINDS
WITH GUSTS 15-20KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY. LLWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS. S WINDS, SHIFTING W/SW BY
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 15-20KT POSSIBLE.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. W WINDS, 5-10KT.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE VISIBILITIES
REDUCED IN FOG THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM, AND A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT ON COASTAL WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...21/JMM
AVIATION...21/JMM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page