749
FXUS61 KCAR 210657
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
257 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 6Z TAF.
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE LEADING TO MINOR URBAN FLOODING.
2) DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND POTENTIALLY HIGH SURF ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST WEDNESDAY
3) POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM MOVING IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
SOME WETTING RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WETTING RAIN IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
LEADING TO MINOR URBAN FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FROM
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO MAINE TONIGHT AND LIFTS TO THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES MAINE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WARM ADVECTION RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE THIS
EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDER TONIGHT, MAINLY
SOUTH OF A HOULTON TO KATAHDIN LINE. THE LATTER IS IN RESPONSE
TO FORCING FROM A 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET CROSSING DOWNEAST MAINE
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY THUNDER SHOULD BE ELEVATED IN NATURE WITH NO
CAPE, BUT SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND 1-3C SUPPORTING ISOLATED-
SCATTERED ELEVATED STORMS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TONIGHT OVER DOWNEAST MAINE AS WELL.
THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION AT SOME POINT
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ONCE THE WARM FRONT FINISHES LIFTING
THROUGH, THEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER FAR
NW ZONES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN PRESS ESE ACROSS THE REGION
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE REGION SHOULD BE IN THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF A 100+ KT UPPER LEVEL JET, IN ADDITION TO SUPPORT
FROM A 50-55KT LOW LEVEL JET NEAR THE COAST. WITH 1000-2000 J/KG
OF CAPE, 35-50KT OF BULK SHEAR (STRONGEST OVER DOWNEAST MAINE),
ALONG WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF DOWNDRAFT CAPE, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ACCORDINGLY SPC HAS THE REGION UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME.
IN ADDITION SHOULD SEE 3/4" TO 1 1/3" OF RAIN ACROSS THE BANGOR
REGION AND DOWNEAST MAINE, WITH 1/3" TO 3/4" ELSEWHERE. GIVEN
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING OF 1.5 TO 1.75"
ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED JET SUPPORT, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH THE BEST FORCING OVER DOWNEAST
MAINE/THE BANGOR REGION, THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF URBAN/KNOWN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS IN THAT REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND POTENTIALLY HIGH SURF ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
BUILD SEAS NEAR SHORE TO 6-9FT FROM WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE RESULTING ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL
MAKE GOING TO AREA ATLANTIC/GULF OF MAINE BEACHES HAZARDOUS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY HOW STRONG THE SWELL
WILL BE AND THE TIMING OF ITS ARRIVAL, SO DO NOT QUITE HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY OR A RIP CURRENT
STATEMENT AT THIS TIME.
SITUATIONS LIKE THIS HAVE RESULTED IN PEOPLE BEING SWEPT INTO
THE OCEAN BY LARGER WAVES CRASHING ON THE CLIFFS AT ACADIA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...POTENTIAL FOR A SYSTEM MOVING IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING SOME WETTING RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, AS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT GENERALLY, MODELS AGREE THAT IT WILL MOVE OVER
THE GULF OF MAINE. TO THE NORTH, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE OVER
CANADA MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION AS WELL. WETTING RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE, AND THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL ALONG THE
PASSING COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN DETERIORATE TO MVFR OR LOWER THIS
EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWEST CONDITIONS AT
KBHB, WHICH COULD SEE VLIFR.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TO START THE TAF PERIOD, BECOME SSE-S
AT 10KT OR LESS AROUND 12Z, THEN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE S-SSE
AT 10-15G20-25KT BY MID MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE SE THIS
EVENING, WITH MOST TERMINALS (EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY KFVE AND KHUL)
LOSING THERE GUSTS WITH SPEEDS SETTLING AROUND 10KT. LLWS
DEVELOPS AT ALL TERMINALS AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LATE TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...IFR OR LOWER LIKELY. STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LLWS LIKELY AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS AND
POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. S-SSE WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. LINGERING
RAIN AT KBHB POSSIBLE. S WINDS AT 5-10 KTS, SHIFTING W
OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY - SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. W/SW WIND AT 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS EARLY THIS MORNING,
GIVES WAY TO SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL. SCA
CONDITIONS THEN DEVELOP ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS THEN CONTINUE ON THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ON THE OUTER
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY, BUT CURRENTLY CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO REFLECT IN THE FORECAST.
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST WEDNESDAY NIGHT, UNTIL WINDS RELAX
THURSDAY MORNING, AND WAVE HEIGHTS FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY
FRIDAY. SEAS PEAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AROUND 6-9 FT OVER INTRA-
COASTALS, AND 9-11 FT FOR ALL OUTER WATERS. FOG OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. S WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING SW ON
THURSDAY. WINDS SHIFT W/NW FRIDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON EDT TODAY UNTIL 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050-051. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM
EDT THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...ASB/PM
AVIATION...ASB/PM
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