033
FXUS61 KCAR 221821
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
221 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-EXPANDED FROST ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH FROM DOVER-FOXCROFT TO TOPSFIELD.
-ADDED KEY MESSAGE ABOUT UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTH
AGAIN TONIGHT, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FROST, ESPECIALLY IN COLDER
VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
2) WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN LIKELY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL
DAY. THIS COULD HELP AID IN MITIGATING ON GOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
3) CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS COMING INTO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTH AGAIN TONIGHT, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD FROST,
ESPECIALLY IN COLDER VALLEYS. THIS MAY LEAD TO DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE
VEGETATION.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF A COLD AIR MASS AND FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
MOST GUIDANCE AGAIN. OPTED TO TAKE THE LOW TEMPS REACHED THIS
MORNING AND BLENDED THEM WITH THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE TO BRING
THEM UP BY A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN THE AIRMASS HAS MODERATED SOME
TODAY. FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS NORTH OF A
DOVER-DANFORTH LINE BUT THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM IS NOT ACTIVE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MAINE. HOWEVER MANY OF THESE
AREAS WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES BY
MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN PROGRESSION OF THE AXIS OF DEEP LAYERED
RIDGING TO THE EAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. GIVEN NBM WARM
BIAS WHEN THERE IS STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, USED A BLEND OF
NBM10/NBM FOR LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AREAS OF
FROST ACROSS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
THREAT TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN LIKELY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THIS COULD HELP AID IN MITIGATING ON GOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE EXITING OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST LATE
SUNDAY, ALLOWS FOR STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION TO SET UP
SUNDAY NIGHT AND TO CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY EXITS TO THE EAST, WITH A COLD AIR DAMMING
SIGNATURE OVER THE REGION, THAT IS REINFORCED BY A SURFACE LOW
TRACKING ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE ON MEMORIAL DAY.
AS A RESULT, RAIN DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN TAPERS
OFF FROM SW TO NE MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COASTAL LOW EXITS TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN TO THE REGION FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 2/3
INCH OF RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST. THE RAINFALL COUPLED WITH THE COLD
AIR DAMMING SHOULD RESULT IN MONDAY BEING COOLER THAN SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE SYSTEMS COMING INTO THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WILL
THROW MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES INTO OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THE
RIDGE WILL REACH ALL THE WAY INTO NORTHERN CANADA, WHILE OUR
AREA WILL BE ON THE TROUGH SIDE OF THIS PATTERN. THIS WILL BRING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
EXACT TIMING OF EACH OF THESE ROUNDS, WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THIS PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR. NW WINDS 5-15KTS.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW WINDS 5 KTS, BECOMING LIGHT S
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. S WINDS 5-15KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS RAIN MOVES IN. FOG POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. LLWS
POSSIBLE. WINDS 5-10 FROM THE SOUTH SHIFTING TO SOUTH EAST, GUSTING
TO 20 KT.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN. WINDS SE AT 5-10 KT
GUSTING TO 15 KT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR, EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN ANY STRONGER SHOWERS AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. W WINDS G15KT POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...MVFR AS RAIN SPREADS INTO SOUTHERN
TERMINALS.
MARINE
SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 40S AND ARE CONDUCIVE
TO HYPOTHERMIA TO ANYONE IMMERSED IN THE WATERS.
A FAIRLY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY SHOULD LIMIT WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS TO 2 FT OR
LESS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE
INTRA-COASTAL WATERS. ON THE OUTER WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
THERE SHOULD BE WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT. WHILE
WINDS SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT ON THE OUTER WATERS, SEAS COULD REMAIN UP
TO 6 FT. A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT RETURNS TO THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY, WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS AND 5 FT OR LESS ON THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND
WAVES REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MEZ002-005-006-010-011-031-032.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...21/JMM
AVIATION...21/JMM
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