654
FXUS61 KCAR 120132 CCA
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
832 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- WINTER STORM WARNING BEEN CANCELLED, WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES
CANCELLED WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING TO SNOW SHOWERS.
- RAISED WINDS AND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND ADDED PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW FOR THE OPEN AGRICULTURAL AREAS IN NORTHERN
MAINE AND LAKES/PONDS CWA WIDE DUE TO RECREATIONAL PURPOSES.
- IT APPEARS THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, VICE JUST A SINGLE
ROUND.
- IT LOOKS LIKE THE SYSTEM FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SHOULD MOST
LIKELY IMPACT ONLY EASTERN AREAS - WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER
EASTERN DOWNEAST MAINE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW WILL IMPACT TRAVEL INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY
AREAS CLOSER TO NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW.
2) HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AREAS
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
CREATE SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY.
3) THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW TO BRING SNOW
MAINLY TO EASTERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD
IMPACT THE MORNING COMMUTE THERE.
4) WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND RAIN AND/OR SNOW
ELSEWHERE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD IMPACT THE AFTERNOON
COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT SNOW WILL IMPACT TRAVEL INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY
AREAS CLOSER TO NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER. GUSTY WINDS ON THURSDAY
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE NEW SNOW.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
CLOSER TO THE NEW BRUNSWICK BORDER, CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEFLY
MODERATE SNOW. ELSEWHERE, GENERALLY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
WITHIN AN AREA OF DRIER AIR TRAPPED WITH THE 500MB LOW DRIFTING
EAST-SOUTHEAST. THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING EXPECTING THE
SURFACE LOW TO EXTEND BACK AN SEMI-INVERTED TROF OVER THE
DOWNEAST INTO PORTIONS OF AROOSTOOK COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH
500MB SHORTWAVE ENERGY. WILL CONTINUE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO THE EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES BASED ON THE TRENDS WHERE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND CAUSE SLIPPERY TRAVEL. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
OF 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. TONIGHT
EXPECTING STEADY PRECIP TO TAPER TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL OF AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING.
TOMORROW THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS IN THE MARITIMES WITH A 1028MB
SURFACE HIGH PUSHING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS 1-2KFT AGL INCREASE TO 20-30KT AND THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX UP TO ABOUT 2KFT. EXPECTING NW WINDS TO
INCREASE WITH DAYTIME HEATING SO EXPECTING GUSTS 20-30MPH DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE OPEN
FIELDS OF NORTHERN MAINE AND ON THE LAKES/PONDS FOR THOSE
HEADING OUT TO ICE FISH OR SNOWMOBILE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN AREAS
FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD
CREATE SUDDEN DROPS IN VISIBILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON HOW THEY HANDLE A CLOSED 850-500MB LOW
THAT STARTS OUT E TO NE OF JAMES BAY AT 12Z FRIDAY, REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY THERE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, THEN DIVES ESE
TO SE (DEPENDING ON MODEL) FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN EITHER CONTINUES
SE OR TURNS E ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN EXITS INTO
THE MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THE HIGH RESOLUTION NAM AND CMC-REG,
ALONG WITH THE CMC-GLOBAL TAKE A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK WITH THIS
SYSTEM AND BRING THE CLOSED LOW OVER MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT, WHILE
THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW NORTH OF
MAINE. GIVEN THE GOOD TRACK RECORD OF THE CMC WITH SIMILAR
SYSTEMS, LEANED TOWARD IT WITH THIS SYSTEM, BLENDING IN CMC
POPS AND QPF, ALONG WITH CONSRAW, WITH THE NBM. FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY, DID LIMIT POPS TO AT MOST CHANCE. THE RESULTS
ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH DESI SHOWING GENERALLY A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OR MORE OF AT LEAST 0.1" OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTH
FROM 7AM SATURDAY-7AM SUNDAY.
IT APPEARS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AROUND 7-7.5C/KM, THIS COUPLED WITH STRONG DIFFERENTIAL POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION, SHOULD SUPPORT SOME STRONGER CONVECTION.
AREAS UNDER ANY STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS COULD RECEIVE A QUICK INCH
OR SO, OTHERWISE ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH
FROM ANY GIVEN SNOW SHOWER. AREAS RECEIVING MULTIPLE SNOW
SHOWERS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW, BUT LIKELY LESS THAN
ADVISORY LEVELS.
ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, BUT FOR NOW
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IF THEY COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO REACH SNOW SQUALL CRITERIA (MORE LIKELY TO BE LESS
THAN 30 MPH THAN ABOVE 30 MPH).
NOTE, IF THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW IN THE
GFS/ECMWF AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IS CORRECT - THEN THERE
LIKELY WILL NOT BE SUFFICIENT FORCING AND INSTABILITY FOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, ASSUMING THERE IS EVEN
ENOUGH LIFT TO OVER COME THE LIMITED MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
AVAILABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SO LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY, THOUGH FOR NOW THERE SEEMS TO BE LESS OF A CHANCE
FOR THAT TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW TO BRING SNOW MAINLY
TO EASTERN MAINE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD IMPACT THE
MORNING COMMUTE THERE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
SOLUTIONS FOR THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH
AND EAST, IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM
EXITING INTO THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND LIMITING THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THIS SYSTEM. SO THE EXTENT OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND, WILL HAVE A BEARING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE NEXT SYSTEM
GETS. THE MORE EXTENSIVE THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS, THE
FARTHER SOUTH THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL GO.
BASED ON THIS, THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS MAINLY
EASTERN MAINE FROM LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, AND POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT OVER FAR SE MAINE. GIVEN THAT MORE
GUIDANCE THAN NOT IS SUGGESTING THE STORM EITHER MISSES
COMPLETELY OR ONLY BRINGS SNOW JUST TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST,
THIS IS NOT CONSIDERED TO BE A LIKELY THREAT AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AND RAIN AND/OR SNOW
ELSEWHERE IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. THIS COULD IMPACT THE AFTERNOON
COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THE CLOSED, STRONG UPPER LOW PROGGED TO PASS TO THE NORTH. SOME
SOLUTIONS ARE SLOWER TO BRING IN THE STORM, AND A FEW SHUNTING
IT TO THE SOUTH. THE LARGEST CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS THOUGH BRINGS
A WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH WITH RAIN AND/OR SNOW FARTHER
SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE FAIRLY
QUICK MOVING, LIMITING ANY TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
REST OF TODAY...IFR NORTH, MVFR/IFR SOUTH. -SN NORTH AND
VCSH/-SHSN SOUTH. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN
10KT.
TONIGHT...IFR NORTH AND MVFR SOUTH. -SN POSSIBLE BECOMING
VCSH/-SHSN. CIGS TURNING MVFR AREAWIDE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR EARLY BECOMING LOW END VFR. NW WINDS 10-15KT
GUSTING 20-30KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15KT GUSTING 20-30KT.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY EVENING: VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING.
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT: MOST LIKELY VFR AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS IN ANY
STRONGER SNOW SHOWERS. SOME NORTHERN TERMINALS COULD EXPERIENCE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NW WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, EXCEPT FOR MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY AT
NORTHERN TERMINALS.
MONDAY: VFR, WITH POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF LOW CHANCE OF MVFR OR
LOWER LATE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FROM 4PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7AM FRIDAY. N WINDS 15-25KT GUSTING
UP TO 30KT. SEAS 3-5FT. FOR THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN HOISTED FROM 1AM THURSDAY TILL 7AM
FRIDAY. NW WINDS 10-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT EXPECTED.
THE SCA COULD NEED TO BE EXTENDED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LINGERING ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS THAT ALL WATERS
SHOULD SEE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FROM SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...ARL/PM/JS
AVIATION...PM/JS
MARINE...PM/JS
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