345
FXUS61 KCAR 120132
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
932 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 9:32PM UPDATE...IN COORDINATION WITH THE UNITED STATES COAST
GUARD HAVE ISSUED A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT FOR SUNDAY FROM 8AM
TO 8PM EDT. THIS IS DUE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN STARK
CONTRAST TO THE VERY COLD WATER TEMPERATURES. SEE THE PRODUCT
FOR MORE DETAILS. NO OTHER CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY WARM TO HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S POSSIBLE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY FOR ALL BUT DOWNEAST. DOWNEAST, ESPECIALLY COASTAL AREAS
SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
2) THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG, TO POSSIBLY SEVERE,
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH/CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY, CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AREA WIDE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...VERY WARM TO HOT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S POSSIBLE MONDAY-WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST APPARENT
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY FOR ALL BUT DOWNEAST. DOWNEAST, ESPECIALLY
COASTAL AREAS SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE
EAST AS THE JET STREAM MOVES ACROSS THE AXIS. THIS WILL PIPE
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE WESTERN US INTO THE REGION
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO
PEAK TUESDAY ACROSS ALL INLAND AREAS AND WEDNESDAY FOR COASTAL
DOWNEAST. MODERATE HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ARE
EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE APPARENT TEMPERATURE HIGHER INTO
THE MID 90S. A COOLDOWN IS LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO EXIT OFF
THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG, TO POSSIBLY SEVERE,
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH/CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY, CONTINUING INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AREA WIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO SHOW A 15% RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOR ALL BUT COASTAL MAINE.
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL APPROACH OUR AREA FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY WITH A
SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. SOME FRONTAL TIMING
DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST AMONG THE GUIDANCE BUT THE GENERAL
THINKING IS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE QUEBEC
PROVINCE DURING THE DAY WHILE CONVECTION FIRES AHEAD OF IT IN
NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA IN RESPONSE TO BROAD-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS. THEN, CONVECTION THAT HAD
DEVELOPED OVER QUEBEC ALONG THE FRONT MAY COALESCE INTO A
CLUSTER OR MCS AND MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. THE FACTORS
DRIVING THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDE RELATIVELY HIGH
INSTABILITY OF 1000-2000 J/KG, STRONG BULK SHEAR OF UP TO 50
KTS, AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE
THERMODYNAMICS EVOLVE INTO THE EVENING AND IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY CAN REMAIN TO SUPPORT STRONG STORMS PERSISTING AS
THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA OVERNIGHT. CURRENTLY THINKING THAT
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
00Z TAF UPDATE...
TONIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS SKC OR HIGH CIGS. BR BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY
AT PQI AND HUL 07-10Z. VARIABLE WINDS UP TO AROUND 5 KNOTS.
SUNDAY: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG EARLY.
OTHERWISE, VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. VARIABLE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
SOUTHWEST.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: VFR SOUTH, MVFR IN ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SW WINDS 10-15 KTS. LLWS POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR, MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
IS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AND THE THREAT COULD CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WSW WINDS 10-15 KTS, BECOMING W TUE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR, POSSIBLE MVFR IN ANY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS. WNW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS,
DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY: VFR EXCEPT FOR MVFR IN ANY AFTERNOON SHOWERS. W WINDS
10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT.
MARGINAL SCA WINDS AND SEAS ON THE COASTAL AND INTRACOASTAL
WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY, THEN DECREASING
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH THURSDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SM/CN/JS
AVIATION...SM/CN/JS
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