693
FXUS61 KCAR 111823
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
223 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...
COOLER AIR BEGINNING TO MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT REALLY A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT, AS NORTHWEST
WINDS HAVE TAKEN OVER ALL THE AREA DOWN TO THE COAST, BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RISING AND DEWPOINTS ARE STEADY. IF YOU
HAD TO CALL SOMETHING A COLD FRONT, WOULD CALL IT AS RUNNING
FROM CARIBOU TO CLAYTON LAKE AS OF 2PM, MOVING SOUTH. THERE ARE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THIS LINE ALONG WITH A BIT OF A DROP IN
DEWPOINTS, DIMINISHING CLOUDS, AND BUMP IN SURFACE WINDS BEHIND
THIS LINE DESPITE NO CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WITH WIND
REMAINING FROM THE NORTHWEST. REGARDLESS, FRONT IS PRETTY WEAK
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...
EXPECT THE CUMULUS FIELD TO DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS WITH
RAPIDLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN FROM THE W/NW, WITH CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. DECENT COLD
ADVECTION TONIGHT FROM THE NW. DON'T ANTICIPATE TOTAL
DECOUPLING/MAX COOLING TONIGHT AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH 25-30 KTS
JUST ABOUT 1500 FEET OFF THE GROUND. POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS FAR
WESTERN AREAS WHERE HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN LATE. ISSUED FROST
ADVISORY ONLY FOR NORTHERN SOMERSET WHICH HAS THE BEST SHOT AT A
LIGHT FROST, WHILE AREAS FURTHER EAST SHOULD HAVE LESS
DECOUPLING/COOLING AND THUS LITTLE IF ANY FROST. KEPT PATCHY
RADIATION FOG IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, BUT GOT RID OF IT EVERYWHERE ELSE AS JUST DON'T
ANTICIPATE A LOT OF DECOUPLING AND THUS RADIATION FOG THANKS TO
THE PERSISTING PRESSURE GRADIENT.
FRIDAY...
SUNNY DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THAT DON'T EVEN
EXPECT A CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. DECREASED AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS A BIT FROM NBM DUE TO GOOD
MIXING.
FRIDAY NIGHT...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA IN THE EVENING, BEGINNING TO MOVE
EAST LATE IN THE NIGHT. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD
LIMIT FROST FORMATION. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT FROST, BUT OPTED
TO KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. PATCHY VALLEY FOG.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE EAST. RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR
NORMAL. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE TAKE A 500 MB LOW RIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW LOW TO OUR NORTH WITH
A MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION. AT THIS POINT, MADE NO CHANGES TO THE NBM POPS FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SUNDAY AGAIN WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. AFTERNOON HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE CONTINUED DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NEAR TERM:
REST OF TODAY...
VFR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AREAWIDE, AS INTERMITTENT
BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS IN THE NORTH THIS MORNING HAVE LIFTED TO
AROUND 5K AGL. BREEZY WITH N/NW WIND 10-15 KTS.
TONIGHT...
SURFACE WINDS DECREASE TONIGHT, BUT A DECENT N/NW WIND PERSISTS
ALOFT, AND ADDED LLWS TO FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL WHERE WIND AROUND 1500
FT AGL WILL BE CLOSE TO 30 KTS. VFR TONIGHT AREAWIDE.
FRIDAY...
REMAINING VFR AREAWIDE. LLWS DISSIPATES AT FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL
AROUND 12Z AND WE ARE LEFT WITH AROUND A 5 KT SURFACE WIND FROM
THE NW.
FRIDAY NIGHT...
VFR IN THE EVENING, BUT POSSIBLE IFR OR LOWER LATE IN THE NIGHT
WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. BEST CHANCE IS PQI, HUL, AND BGR. LIGHT
WINDS.
SHORT TERM:
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW SUN.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT. NW WIND DOES INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS TONIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, BUT THIS IS AS CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT AS IT
GETS.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MEZ003.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...FOISY
SHORT TERM...TWD
LONG TERM...TWD
AVIATION...FOISY/TWD
MARINE...FOISY/TWD
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