930
FXUS61 KCAR 251100
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
700 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION TO AFD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMER, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH NO PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...WARMER, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IS TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE AIRMASS
GRADUALLY WARMING. NO PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND. ONE LITTLE
HICCUP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STUBBORN CLOUDS 3-6K AGL STUCK JUST
UNDERNEATH THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT. FEEL THAT NBM IS
UNDERDOING THESE CLOUDS AND WENT CLOUDIER THAN NBM, ESPECIALLY
IN NORTH/EAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
A BIT OF A NORTH BREEZE TODAY, THEN LIGHT WINDS SUNDAY.
MOST MODELS DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY, THEN HAVE IT SLOWLY SLIDE EAST STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE DOES TWO THINGS SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
NIGHT. 1) IT MAINTAINS A LOW LEVEL NE-N FLOW OVER THE REGION AND
2) IT SLOWS THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE APPALACHIANS DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.
THE FORMER ADVECTS IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE MARITIMES. THE
LATTER ALLOWS FOR A GRADUALLY THICKENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
TO TRAP THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION - PROMOTING
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY COVER DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WHICH
IS MORE CLOUDS THAN INDICATED BY THE NBM. BASED ON THE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER, BLENDED IN THE NBM 50 TO RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE CMC-REG TYPICALLY HANDLES
PATTERNS LIKE THIS BETTER THAN MOST OTHER MODELS, SO LEANED
TOWARDS IT SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT - ESPECIALLY FOR CLOUD
COVER. FOR NOW, DID NOT INTRODUCE THE DRIZZLE IT IMPLIES OVER
NORTHERN AROOSTOOK, BUT IF CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS COULD SEE IT BEING ADDED
TO THE FORECAST.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS IN TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, WITH
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DRYING THE LOW LEVELS. THE GFS
LIKELY IS TOO PROGRESSIVE IN BUILDING THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING
ACROSS THE REGION AND TOO THE EAST, AS THIS IS A KNOWN BIAS TO
THE MODEL. IN ADDITION THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANCTIC
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO IMPEDE THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE
RIDGE AS WELL.
BECAUSE OF THE DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING OF THE DEEP LAYERED
RIDGE, THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF RAINFALL, AND THE
CORRESPONDING BUILD IN OF A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT. FOR
NOW NOT FULLY BUYING INTO THE GFS/CMC IDEA OF TAPPING MOISTURE
FROM THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND BRINGING IN
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH POPS LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE. FOR NOW BELIEVE THAT ANY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HOLDS OFF
UNTIL THURSDAY AND TAPERS OFF ON FRIDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF RAINFALL INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK FRM A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH (ECMWF) TO 1-3"+ (CMC), AND HENCE ON ANY IMPACTS FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
TODAY: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AT KHUL/KPQI/KCAR, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
FROM MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
VFR AT KFVE, WITH A LOW-MODERATE CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOMING GUSTY OUT OF
THE NORTH G15-20KT FROM MID MORNING TO AROUND MIDDAY. GUSTS
ABATE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THEN WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGHOUT TONIGHT.
SUNDAY: GENERALLY VFR, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT INTERMITTENT MVFR
CIGS MAINLY AT FVE/CAR/PQI/HUL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW. VARIABLE WIND
AROUND 5 KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE WITH BEST CHANCE AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS.
MONDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH
MVFR POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
TUESDAY: BECOMING VFR THROUGHOUT. SE WINDS G15KT POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: VFR. SE WINDS G15KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY.
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY
SHOULD LIMIT WINDS TO 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS TO 4 FT OR LESS.
A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SWELL BUILDS SEAS: ON THE OPEN OCEAN
WATERS BUILD TO 5-8 FT TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT; ON THE COASTAL
OCEAN WATERS TO 5-7 FT AND ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS TO 3-5
FT WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD INCREASE
TO 15-20 KT BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL ON ALL WATERS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TF/PM
AVIATION...TF/PM
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