661  
FXUS61 KCAR 272210  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
610 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT.  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO  
FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SATURDAY,  
THEN CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
6:10 PM UPDATE: THE WIND ADVISORY WAS DROPPED JUST PRIOR TO THIS  
UPDATE. STILL GETTING GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH DOWNEAST, BUT THE  
TREND WILL BE FOR VERY GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WIND TONIGHT.  
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A WELL DEFINED CLEARING LINE THAT  
EXTENDS FROM VAN BUREN SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN SOMERSET COUNTY.  
MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AREA  
OF CLEARING THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND  
EAST. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE  
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL AFFECT  
PORTIONS OF THE DOWNEAST REGION THIS EVENING. ONLY MINOR  
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY GRIDS AND POPS BASED ON THE LATEST  
SATELLITE PICTURES AND RADAR TRENDS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:  
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND  
HAS SLOWLY STARTED TO MOVE EASTWARD. HIGH-RES MODEL REFLECTIVITY  
SHOWS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOVING EAST TONIGHT,  
PULLING THE REMAIN SHOWERS OUT OF DOWNEAST AND OUT OVER THE  
WATERS. SOUNDING DATA SHOWS A WELL MIXED LAYER THROUGHOUT THE  
NIGHT WITH 925MB WINDS NEAR 30 MPH, SO EXPECTING GUSTY  
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME CLEARING OF  
CLOUDS THIS EVENING IN THE NORTH WOODS AND HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT A  
LOW CLOUD LAYER LOOKS TO BE MOVING BACK IN. THIS SHOULD KEEP  
TEMPS MILD FOR THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY,  
THE LOW SHOULD MOVE OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE A LARGE HIGH  
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH PUSHES INTO THE REGION. MODEL WINDS  
SHOW A TIGHTENING OF GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND  
APPROACHING HIGH, CAUSING HIGH WINDS AGAIN, BUT SHOULD STEADILY  
DECREASE AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. DRY AIR  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL HELP CLEAR OUT CLOUDS IN THE NORTH  
AND WEST, THROUGH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS FROM THE LOW ARE  
EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND DOWNEAST FOR THE DAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
BY THE END OF THE WEEK 1024MB HIGH PRESSURE WL BE BUILDING INTO THE  
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE DEPARTING NOR'EASTER. SKIES WL BE CLEARING THU  
EVENING FM THE NORTHWEST AS RIDGE AXIS BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT  
MOVES IN FM QUEBEC. UNDER CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECT THAT  
TEMPS IN THE DEEPER VLYS MAY DIP INTO THE MID-20S FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON RIDGE AXIS WL BE BISECTING THE REGION AND  
WITH MOSUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TEMPS WL CLIMB TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
NORMAL. BY FRI NIGHT HIPRES WL SHIFT INTO THE MARITIMES WITH RETURN  
FLOW SETTING UP LATE SAT AFTN AS NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE FM THE  
WEST.  
 
RIDGING WL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SAT MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING DRG  
THE DAY. LLJ OF 45KTS WL BE WORKING IT'S WAY UP INTO CWA BY THE END  
OF THE PD WITH AREA OF MODERATE RAIN JUST BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE  
WRN AREAS BY 00Z SUN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR SATURDAY IN  
RAIN, POSSIBLY MODERATE AT TIMES. THIS WL BE ENHANCE BY LFQ OF  
120KTS UPR LVL JET WITH PW VALUES APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES. RAIN  
LOOKS TO COME TO AN END SUN NIGHT WITH MED RANGE GUIDANCE  
OFFERING SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLNS FOR MON.  
 
THE GFS INDICATES RIDGING WHILE EC AND GEM HINTING AT A TROF  
KEEPING SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE ST. JOHN VLY. HAVE GONE TWD NBM  
AT THIS POINT, KEEPING THE AREA DRY AND WARM WITH PARTLY-MOSTLY  
CLDY SKIES ACRS THE NORTH AND MOSUNNY ELSEWHERE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: CLEARING HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF KFVE WITH VFR. THE  
CLEARING LIKELY PUSHES SOUTH TO KCAR/KPQI THIS EVENING WITH MVFR  
TO IMPROVE TO VFR. ELSEWHERE, FROM KHUL SOUTH MAINLY MVFR  
TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH VFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN VARIABLE  
CONDITIONS. ALL SITES WILL BE VFR THURSDAY AFTER ANY EARLY  
MORNING MVFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS FOR  
TONIGHT, BUT LOCALLY TO 30 KNOTS AT KBHB AND KBGR ARE EXPECTED  
TO DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THURSDAY.  
 
SHORT TERM: THU-FRI NIGHT...VFR. N 5-15KTS.  
 
SAT-SUN...MVFR DECREASING TO IFR SAT AFTERNOON IN LIGHT TO  
MODERATE RAIN. E WINDS 5KTS SAT BECOMING 5-15KTS SUN.  
 
SUN NIGHT-MON...BECOMING VFR DOWNEAST WITH MVFR FOR NORTHERN  
TERMINALS. LIGHT S BECOMING SW 5-10KTS MON AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE WATERS  
THROUGH 8 AM THURSDAY, THEN UNTIL 2 PM THURSDAY FOR THE OUTER  
WATERS ONLY. LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES.  
SEAS 10-15 FT ON THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD DECREASE THROUGHOUT  
TONIGHT TO 6-10 FT FOR THURSDAY.  
 
SHORT TERM: SCA LIKELY NEEDED FOR THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.  
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN SAT AFTERNOON AND LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 5FT FRI MORNING  
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. SEAS  
WL DIMINISH MON MORNING.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ052.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...CB/LAFLASH  
SHORT TERM...FARRAR  
LONG TERM...FARRAR  
AVIATION...CB/LAFLASH/FARRAR  
MARINE...CB/LAFLASH/FARRAR  
 
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