171
FXUS61 KCAR 070103
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
803 PM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN COLD WIND CHILLS AND GUSTY CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND.
-UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS BITTER WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND.
2) POTENTIAL OF A STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS BITTER WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY, BRINGING FRIGID
COLD AIR INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN MAINE. PRECIPITATION STAYS
WELL TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH, AS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS ABSORBED BY A STRONGER LOW IN THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES
CRASH SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING COLD WIND CHILLS -25 TO -20 IN
THE WESTERN NORTH WOODS, AND -20 TO -15 IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK.
WIND CHILLS AROUND -15 TO -10 IN CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO BANGOR
REGION, AND -10 TO -5 IN THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. SIMILAR
WIND CHILLS SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS -25 TO -20 IN THE
WESTERN NORTH WOODS, AND -20 TO -15 IN NORTHERN AROOSTOOK. WIND
CHILLS AROUND -15 TO -10 IN CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO BANGOR REGION,
AND AROUND -10 IN THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST REGION. THERE IS A GOOD
PRESSURE GRADIENT RIGHT BEHIND THIS FRONT, BRINGING SOME GUSTY
WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH, WITH A POTENTIAL TO FOR BLOWING SNOW
THROUGHOUT ROADS NEAR OPEN FIELDS, REDUCING VISIBILITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
POTENTIAL OF A STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE WEEK
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WITH THE SYSTEM FCST TO AFFECT THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF NEXT
WEEK STILL BEING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, SOLUTIONS WILL LIKELY
CHANGE THIS WEEKEND. THAT BEING SAID, SOME 12Z GUIDANCE SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE DOES NOT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS AN EVEN MIX OF STORM VS NO
STORM AND WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS WEDNESDAY EVENING THRU FRIDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, VFR EARLY TONIGHT THEN VFR/MVFR
OVERNIGHT. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, VFR/MVFR SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ACROSS
DOWNEAST AREAS, GENERALLY VFR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOCAL MVFR WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY. POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
SNOW TO IMPACT TERMINALS SATURDAY NIGHT, AS WINDS BEGIN TO PICK
UP. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 10 KNOTS SATURDAY. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS,
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR, TEMPO MVFR OVER NRN AROOSTOOK TERMINALS.
NW 10-20KTS GUSTING TO 25KTS. DRSN/BLSN POSSIBLE AT SITES. LLWS
POSSIBLE.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...VFR. NW 10-20KTS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS START TO APPROACH GALES SATURDAY
EVENING INTO NIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 4-7 FT OVER THE OUTER WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT,
RELAXING AND BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY OVER OUTER-WATERS. WINDS FROM
N/NE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE OUTER WATERS INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE DIMINISHING TO SCA LEVELS. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 5FT OVER
THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH WINDS AT MARGINAL GALE
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WINDS VARY BETWEEN SMALL CRAFT
AND MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY EXPECTED INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 10 AM EST SUNDAY
FOR MEZ003-004-010.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...ASB/21
AVIATION...CN/ASB/21
MARINE...ASB/21
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page