926
FXUS61 KCAR 261911
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
211 PM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-RAISED SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY ACROSS DOWNEAST AND SOUTHERN
AROOSTOOK COUNTY TONIGHT DUE TO INVERTED TROUGH
-ADDED IN SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST
2) CHANCE FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY AND THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST
MAINE
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THIS EVENING, PASSING SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW, AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD INTO THE
NEW ENGLAND REGION, SUSTAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW UP THROUGH
OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT.
WITH PROFILES REMAINING WITHIN THE DGZ ACROSS THE INTERIOR
DOWNEAST REGION, SLRS CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH FOR THIS AREA, OFTEN
EXCEEDING 25 OR 30:1. THIS FLUFFY SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
ACCUMULATE, EVEN AS SNOW RATES TAPER OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FURTHER NORTH, COLDER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE PULL
THE PROFILE COLDER THAN THE DGZ, LEADING TO LOWER SLRS WHICH ARE
CLOSER TO 10:1. LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT MUCH OF THE NORTH WILL ONLY SEE UP TO AN
INCH ADDITIONAL SNOW. HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES THIS EVENING WILL
BE LOCALIZED TO THE TROUGH AXIS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATE, AND CAMS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE LOCAL
INTENSIFICATION ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER BEFORE THE TROUGH EXITS
THE CWA. ALL SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO END FROM WEST TO EAST BY
AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...CHANCE FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
RELATIVELY CALM PERIOD OF WEATHER THIS UPCOMING WEEK, AS A LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTH INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. MANITOBA LOW SLIDES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, INTERACTING WITH AFOREMENTIONED
LOW IN NEW BRUNSWICK. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIODS OF RIDGING ON
WEDNESDAY IN BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM, WITH SOME CLEARING SKIES.
CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD
LEAD TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, HELPING TO QUICKLY PLUMMET
TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY IN COLDER VALLEYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD BE 5-10 BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH, AND AROUND 0 DEGREES IN
THE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT WIND CHILLS COULD BE 20 BELOW IN THE
NORTH, AND DOWN TO 10 BELOW IN THE SOUTH. REST OF THE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK WILL BE BELOW NORMAL, UNTIL A WARM UP
PERIOD BEGINS AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
NOT TOO MUCH IN TERM OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THIS WEEK. A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH FORMS OVER MAINE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
WHICH COULD BRING SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED FROM
THIS, HOWEVER. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DECENT STORM MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, BUT STILL TO EARLY
TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ITS STRENGTH OR DEVELOPMENT. CONTINUE TO
WATCH FOR MORE UPDATES.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
TONIGHT - TUESDAY...MAINLY IFR VIS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS IN
LIGHT SN. MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, SO BRIEF
IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR ARE LIKELY PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE NIGHT
IN BETWEEN MORE MODERATE SNOWFALL. VIS TO IMPROVE BY 12Z AS SNOW
MOVES OUT, BUT MVFR CIGS ARE LIKELY TO HANG AROUND ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. NE WINDS 5 TO
10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KTS AT KBGR/KBHB, SHIFTING NW
LATE TONIGHT AND REMAINING NW 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR. W/NW WINDS 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WEDNESDAY, RELAXING TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR/MVFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS, MOSTLY NORTH. W/NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS THURSDAY, SHIFTING TO THE W/SW AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR. NW WINDS AT 5-10KTS.
MARINE
GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT
TONIGHT WHILE SCA REMAINS ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS. WINDS
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY THREAT RETURNS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL WATERS,
TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY
AS WINDS SUBSIDE. NW WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLE MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY RETURNING
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
BECOMING MODERATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS FROM THE NW
WEDNESDAY, SHIFTING TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY. CHANCE FOR SNOW
SHOWERS SUNDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...AES/ASB
AVIATION...AES/ASB
MARINE...AES/ASB
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