691
FXUS61 KCAR 300713
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
313 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) OCCASIONAL RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH THE GREATER TOTALS
DOWNEAST.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...OCCASIONAL RAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH THE
GREATER TOTALS DOWNEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MAINE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, WHILE THE SUPPORTING UPPER LOW
CROSSES THE REGION. OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT, THEN DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, MOSTLY DOWNEAST. THE GREATER
RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY OCCUR
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, WITH LESSER TOTALS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH NORTH, WITH
AROUND QUARTER TO THIRD OF AN INCH ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS WITH
AROUND A THIRD TO A HALF INCH DOWNEAST. HOWEVER, LOCAL
VARIATIONS IN THESE TOTALS WILL OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA SATURDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH WOODS SATURDAY AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WITH MORE SHOWERS AND A GREATER
LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO
OUR NORTH. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MAINE AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP STABLE
MARINE AIR OVER MORE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF INSTABILITY BUT ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN ON EXACT AMOUNTS. THUS, LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN STORM
SEVERITY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
TODAY...ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, VFR/MVFR OCCASIONAL IFR WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN. PATCHY MORNING FOG. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS,
MVFR/IFR OCCASIONAL LIFR WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. AREAS OF MORNING FOG.
NORTHEAST/NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15
KNOTS.
TONIGHT...ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN TAPERING TO
SHOWERS. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, MVFR/IFR OCCASIONAL LIFR WITH
RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS. VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY FOG
REGIONWIDE. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY PATCHY FOG EARLY.
OTHERWISE, VFR/MVFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. NORTH WINDS 5 TO
10 KNOTS, BECOMING VARIABLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG LATE.
OTHERWISE, VFR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR IN EARLY MORNING FOG. OTHERWISE, VFR. S/SW
WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH ANY PATCHY FOG LATE.
OTHERWISE, VFR. LIGHT S WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS. S WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY...MVFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. LIGHT S WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOMING W/SW AT
5-10 KTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SEAS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT THOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. RAIN TODAY, WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN TONIGHT.
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG TODAY. PATCHY FOG TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
SEAS 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY. SW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY, SHIFTING S BY SUNDAY. RAIN POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PATCHY FOG FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SM/CN
AVIATION...SM/CN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page