275
FXUS61 KCAR 121908
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
208 PM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN MEASURABLE SNOWFALL THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MAINE
KEY MESSAGES
1) TURNING MUCH COLDER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LIKELY SNOW
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE.
2) BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY
FROM THE BANGOR REGION AND POINTS NORTH.
3) POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM AROUND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TURNING MUCH COLDER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH LIKELY SNOW
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN MAINE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A GOOD
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. BOTTOM LINE IS COLDER AIR WILL BE MOVING
IN, POTENTIALLY WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF THIS OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN MAINE. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT
WILL BE SLOWLY CREEPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA, BUT THE
TIMING OF THIS FRONT IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN. MEANWHILE, A CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WITH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE
FORWARD PROGRESS OF THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS ALSO QUITE
UNCERTAIN. THE INTERACTION OF THIS APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND THE ARCTIC FRONT COULD BE RATHER VOLATILE, WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW JUST ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WHERE THE MILD, MOIST AIR ALOFT FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIR AT LOW LEVELS.
RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SLOW DOWN THE SOUTHEAST
PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. THE FRONT APPEARS TO PROGRESS
THROUGH THE NORTH FROM MIDDAY THURSDAY TO THURSDAY EVENING, AND
MAKE IT TO DOWNEAST ANYWHERE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO THE PRE-
DAWN HOURS FRIDAY. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE
MILD AND WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OR PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
NORTH, WITH IT EASILY BEING COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BEHIND THE
ARCTIC FRONT. THE HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WOULD LIKELY BE BEHIND
THE ARCTIC FRONT AND NOT AHEAD OF IT. FOR FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON
THE SPEED OF THE CUTOFF LOW PROGRESSING THROUGH THE REGION, WE
COULD SEE ENHANCED/CONTINUED SNOW INTO FRIDAY IF A SURFACE LOW
CAN FORM AND RIDE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. OVER THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY PERIOD, THERE IS ROUGHLY A 25-40 PERCENT CHANCE
OF MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES NORTH OF
BANGOR. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW DURING
THIS TIME. SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS VERY UNLIKELY, BECAUSE MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE IN THE COLDER AIRMASS WHERE IT WOULD
FALL AS SNOW. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH COLDER WITH
READINGS ANYWHERE FROM 5-15F ABOVE IN THE NORTH AND 15-25F
ABOVE DOWNEAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FROM
THE BANGOR REGION AND POINTS NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH QUEBEC PROVINCE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
THAT WE WILL SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY, MAINLY FROM THE BANGOR REGION AND POINTS NORTH. CONFIDENCE
IS ALSO HIGH THAT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY
AN INCH OR TWO.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM AROUND SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
ALTHOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT IS POOR, MANY MODELS/ENSEMBLES DO
INDICATE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTING WITH POTENTIALLY A
NOR'EASTER AROUND THE SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. IF THIS SYSTEM WERE TO
PAN OUT, SNOW WOULD BE FAVORED IN THE NORTH, AND DOWNEAST COULD
GET RAIN OR SNOW. RIGHT NOW, ROUGHLY HALF OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES
HAVE AT LEAST A MODERATELY STRONG SYSTEM PASSING SOMEWHERE
THROUGH OUR AREA AROUND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
WITH A LOWER THAN AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE, AS SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CEILINGS
DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT, MAINLY AT THE AROOSTOOK TERMINALS.
HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE MORE PESSIMISTIC OUTCOME, ESPECIALLY
KFVE, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. SW WIND
5 TO 10 KT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, BECOMING MVFR/IFR IN -SN BR. S TO SE
WIND AROUND 10 KT.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. S WIND 5-10 KTS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...GENERALLY MVFR/IFR. SNOW LIKELY IN THE
NORTH THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS INTO FRIDAY. FOR
BGR/BHB, POSSIBLY RAIN THURSDAY, THEN POSSIBLY SNOW THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. S WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, AND BECOMING 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS, PERSISTING
INTO FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. SW WIND 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY, AND
THEN INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT SW WINDS AND SEAS WEDNESDAY DIMINISH BELOW SMALL
CRAFT LEVELS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NW GALES ARE LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 9 FT.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...TF/TWD
AVIATION...TF/TWD
MARINE...TF/TWD
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