390
FXUS61 KCAR 060028
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
828 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-8:28PM UPDATE...ADJUSTED POPS FOR THE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
TO ACCOUNT FOR TRENDS WITH KCBW/KGYX RADAR ECHOS. AN AXIS OF
SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM JUST NORTH OF BANGOR INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK COUNTY.
EXPECTING NO SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS
SINCE THESE ARE AHEAD OF A SLOWLY STALLING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL BECOME THE AXIS FOR RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY
THIS IS A AVIATION UPDATE FOR THE 00Z TAF, SEE BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS, COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
2) A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THE LONG TERM DROUGHT.
THE PONDING OF WATER IN KNOWN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
3) ANOTHER WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS, COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE KATAHDIN REGION. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MAINE IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN QUEBEC PROVINCE AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD FAVOR SOME WEAK SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY OF AROUND 500 J/KG. THE MAIN CONCERN FROM
THESE STORMS IS GUSTY WINDS AS A RESULT OF SEVERAL FACTORS
INCLUDING DRY LOW-LEVELS AS REPRESENTED BY AN INVERTED V
SOUNDING AND RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER THAT COULD EASILY BE MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
WHILE THE SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A 2 PERCENT RISK OF TORNADO FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND HODOGRAPHS/SRH ARE FAVORABLE, HIGH
LCLS AND LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT OR
COMPLETELY ELIMINATE ANY TORNADO THREAT. THE MARINE LAYER AND
FRONTAL POSITIONING RELATIVE TO THE STRONGEST DAYTIME HEATING,
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 95.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THE LONG TERM DROUGHT.
THE PONDING OF WATER IN KNOWN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND THEN MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A SOAKING RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A MEAN NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN EXIT INTO THE SOUTHERN MARITIMES
THURSDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
SOUTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN EXITS INTO THE EASTERN
MARITIMES ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE REGION STILL UNDER A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE, BEING IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 120+ KT UPPER JET TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST AND THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF A 140+ KT UPPER
JET TO THE SOUTHWEST, WILL SEE ENHANCED LIFT. THIS WILL BE RE-
ENFORCED BY A SECONDARY MAXIMA IN THE LOW LEVEL JET PASSING JUST
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINED FORCING FORM THE UPPER
AND LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENABLE MODERATE TO POSSIBLY LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD
TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG LIFT FROM THE JET DYNAMICS AND SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG THE COAST AND COASTAL WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STORM TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 2 INCHES NORTH AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95, WITH ONE HALF TO ONE INCH EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS. MOST PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHILE NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE MORE SPREAD OUT
NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IMPACTFUL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED,
BUT SOME IMPACT TO TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ANOTHER WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE FOR A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP
TRANSPORT HIGHER PWATS AND GULF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA IN A
SIMILAR SETUP TO THE SYSTEM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ENSEMBLES AND PARTICULARLY THE AI MODELS FAVOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SWATH OF 1 TO
2 INCHES. THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SHIFTS THE HEAVIEST AXIS
OF QPF OFFSHORE AND SOME THAT ARE FARTHER NORTH WITH LESS QPF,
SO SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. THIS RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THE
SHORT TERM RAINFALL SURPLUS AND HELP TO ALLEVIATE THE LONG TERM
DROUGHT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPDATE 00Z TAFS
WIDESPREAD AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED DUE TO SIGNIFICANT LLWS,
GUSTY SURFACE WINDS, AND DETERIORATING CATS. CONDITIONS WILL
START VFR TO LOW-END MVFR THIS EVENING BEFORE CRASHING TO
IFR/LIFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ON WEDNESDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM
BRINGS LOWERING CIGS AND STEADY -RA.
KFVE, KCAR, KPQI, KHUL...S TO SW WINDS GUSTING 15-20KT WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN THIS EVE. HOWEVER, A POTENT LLJ WILL MAINTAIN
WIDESPREAD LLWS 40-50KT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. -SHRA GIVE
WAY TO STEADY -RA/BR BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. ACCOMPANYING THIS
PRECIP, CIGS WILL RAPIDLY LOWER FROM MVFR (020-025) DOWN TO
IFR/LIFR (004-006) BY MID-MORNING. BY 20Z, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGGING SOUTH WILL CAUSE WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NNE AT KPQI AND
KHUL, AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AT KFVE AND KCAR, BUT LIFR CIGS
AND REDUCED VSBYS WILL REMAIN.
KBGR, KBHB...S WINDS 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT. VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO MVFR AROUND 08Z, THEN FALL TO IFR BY
11Z AS MARINE STRATUS (CIGS 006-008) PUSHES INLAND. S/SW WINDS
GUSTING 25-30KT WILL BE PERSISTENT, ESPECIALLY AT KBHB. THIS
EVENING LLWS LIKELY, A SECONDARY, STRONGER SURGE OF LLWS
(50-55KT) WILL IMPACT BOTH KBGR AND KBHB AFTER 20Z AS THE NEXT
LLJ STREAK MOVES OVERHEAD. TOMORROW FEATURES -RA AND BR,
MAINTAINING IFR TO LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z
TOMORROW NIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR. W TO NW 10-15KT WINDS.
THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS/VIS
WITH -SHRA AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. WNW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON -SHRA,
MAINLY AT NORTHERN AIRPORTS. W WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS.
SATURDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT: BECOMING MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF -RA. S
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
SUNDAY: VFR FAVORED (70 PERCENT CHANCE) WITH MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY LATE. SW WINDS 5 TO 15 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS
EXPECTED OUT TO 25 NM OFFSHORE AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 25 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE. A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR 25 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE WATERS UNTIL
3AM, OTHERWISE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE REST
OF THE WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE WATERS FURTHER INTO THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG AND MODERATE
TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY OVER THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. A THUNDERSTORM IS
ALSO POSSIBLE.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCE (20 PERCENT) OF AN SCA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY (40 PERCENT CHANCE).
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ052.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ080-081.
DISCUSSION...TWD/MWS/JS
AVIATION...TWD/MWS/JS
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