000
FXUS61 KCAR 150040
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
840 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR OUR AREA
TONIGHT.
2) COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR OUR AREA
TONIGHT. ANY SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT WOULD BE IN
WESTERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE CLOUD COVER FROM THE EARLY MORNING MCS THAT DROPPED SOUTH
OUT OF QUEBEC AND WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE ONTARIO PROVINCE IN
CANADA HAVE RESULTED IN LESS INSTABILITY THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED
OVER OUR AREA TODAY. THUS, OUR SEVERE RISK FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MAINE HAS DROPPED CONSIDERABLY. ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE MAINLY CONFINED TO WESTERN AREAS ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A
STRONGER STORM CLIPPING EITHER WESTERN PISCATAQUIS AND PENOBSCOT
COUNTIES. HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST BUT LEFT IN A CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER CENTRAL MAINE
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED A CHANCE FOR THUNDER OVER
THE FAR NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
ANY SEVERE WITH THAT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
COOLER WEATHER PATTERN SETTING UP MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH A DEEP,
COOL UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA. WE
COULD SEE SOME PRIMARILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WITH THE BETTER CHANCE BEING THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WE
DON'T ANTICIPATE SEVERE STORMS. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL
THURSDAY THOUGH WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT. MORE UNCERTAINTY FROM
FRIDAY ONWARD, BUT TENTATIVELY LOOKING FAIRLY DRY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO AVERAGE, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER THAN AVERAGE. THE COOLEST DAY WILL
LIKELY BE FRIDAY, WHEN HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 IN THE
NORTH. SOME 40S AT NIGHT IN COOLER NORTHERN VALLEYS ARE LIKELY
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TONIGHT...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS OF SMOKE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. OTHERWISE,
VFR. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, BECOMING
WEST/NORTHWEST 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY...VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH ANY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, VFR. NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR AT TIMES
MAINLY IN THE NORTH DUE TO EITHER CIGS OR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS. BEST CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS IS THURSDAY. W
WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS.
SUNDAY...MVFR/VFR IN -SHRA/-TSRA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
MARINE
SWELL INCREASES TONIGHT WITH SEAS INCREASING ABOVE 5FT THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS CONTINUE TO BE
MARGINAL OUT TO 25NM AND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH MOST OF THE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGH WED AFTERNOON BUT HAVE
OPTED NOT TO EXTEND SCA BEYOND SUNRISE.
W WINDS GENERALLY 10-20 KTS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
MINIMAL FOG THREAT. SEAS 2-5 FT THROUGH SAT, GENERALLY ON THE
LOWER SIDE OF THE RANGE TOWARD SATURDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...21/SM
AVIATION...21/SM/CN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page