899  
FXUS61 KCAR 061012  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
612 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE  
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK  
TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR WEST THURSDAY INTO  
FRIDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
6:10 AM UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTHERN AREAS AND  
SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE NORTH. SOME RAIN  
SHOWERS ARE APPROACHING WESTERN AREAS. ADJUSTED CURRENT  
CONDITIONS TO REFLECT THIS, AND SOME COOLING TEMPS OVER THE FAR  
NORTH WHERE IT WAS CLEAR MOST OF THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, FORECAST  
REMAINS ON TRACK.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MARITIMES WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE TO  
OUR SOUTHWEST TO BRING INCREASING CLOUDS TODAY. LOWER CLOUDS WILL  
BUILD NORTH FROM THE DOWNEAST COAST TODAY, REACHING THE NORTH AROUND  
MID MORNING. SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN  
PARTS OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING, POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO THE  
NORTH DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON AS THE LOW APPROACHES.  
HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S DOWNEAST WHERE A  
COOLER WIND OFF THE WATER AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL LIMIT WARMING,  
TO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE NORTH WHERE THINNER CLOUDS TO  
START THE MORNING WILL ALLOW SOME SOLAR HEATING.  
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS  
A LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE LOW CARRIES MOISTURE NORTH. OCCASIONAL  
RAIN WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD WITH SOME RAIN EXPECTED THROUGHOUT  
THE AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL  
RANGE FROM LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE NORTH TO A HALF  
INCH DOWNEAST. THE THICKER CLOUDS AND HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN A  
MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50  
ACROSS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SRLY FLOW WILL BE DRAWING MOISTURE AND WARM AIR IN AHEAD OF A COLD  
FRONT SITTING JUST BACK TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY  
EARLY WEDNESDAY. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD BE SLOWLY WINDING DOWN MID-  
MORNING AS DRY SLOT WORKS IN AS CLOSED LOW EJECTS TWD CWA. EXPECTING  
THAT MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE EITHER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR  
DRIZZLE LATE MORNING BEFORE UPR COLD POOL AND CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF  
COLD FRONT BRINGS STEADY RAIN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE  
AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SEE ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP OVER  
THE NORTH WOODS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  
 
EXPECT THAT PATCHY FOG WILL MOVE INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST UP INTO  
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. BULK OF THE  
RAIN SHOULD REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS UPR LOW  
EJECTS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, CROSSING INTO ERN CANADA AFTER  
MIDNIGHT. BY 12Z THURSDAY, COLD FRONT SHOULD BE CROSSING INTO  
DOWNEAST WITH MOST OF THE FOG CONFINED TO THE COAST.  
 
INITIAL LOW WILL BE MOVING TWD THE MARITIMES ON THURSDAY MORNING  
WITH UPR TROF DIVING INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. THIS KEEPS CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ACRS  
THE SOUTH AND BELOW NORMAL ACRS THE NORTH WITH NORTH WOODS REMAINING  
IN THE U40S.  
 
YET ANOTHER H5 LOW WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF BACK TO OUR  
WEST ON THURSDAY NIGHT LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY INTO THE LONG TERM  
PART OF THE FORECAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
H5 LOW WILL BE DIGGING INTO WRN GREAT LAKES AREA AND EVENTUALLY  
CLOSING OFF ON FRIDAY. MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON WHERE EXACTLY IT CLOSES  
OFF AND WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER OUR AREA.  
00Z CMC CLOSES IT OFF CLOSER TO NEW ENGLAND WITH RAIN ON FRIDAY AND  
FRIDAY NIGHT AS IT EJECTS THE LOW ACROSS DOWNEAST. MEANWHILE, 00Z  
GFS CLOSES IT OFF OVER WRN NYS WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAIN  
FOR THE AREA AS IT EJECTS IT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. ENSEMBLE  
MEANS AGREE WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE DETERMINISTIC RUNS.  
 
00Z EC LOOKS SIMILAR TO ITS PRIOR RUN CLOSING OFF LOW OVER NEOH ON  
FRIDAY AND EJECTING IT INTO NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY MORNING. THIS  
SOLUTION BRINGS RAIN INTO OUR CWA FRIDAY EVENING WITH RAIN  
CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY EVENING. HAVE FOLLOWED NBM AS IT IS  
CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR FORECAST AND GENERALLY FOLLOWS MORE OF THE EC  
SOLN. HOWEVER HAVE CAPPED POPS AT JUST CHANCE AS IT IS TOO EARLY TO  
GO WITH LIKELY POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST.  
 
ONCE THIS LOW EJECTS INTO CANADA ZONAL FLOW WITH FAST-MOVING S/WVS  
ZIPPING THROUGH WILL FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM:  
CONDITIONS DOWNEAST WILL DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR EARLY THIS  
MORNING AS LOW CLOUDS PUSH NORTH. IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS  
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL DROP TO  
MVFR THIS MORNING THEN IFR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE  
LOWER CLOUDS WORK NORTH. WINDS LIGHT SE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY  
THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM:  
WEDNESDAY...IFR/LIFR IN THE MORNING IN RAIN AND FOG. MVFR POSSIBLE  
IN THE AFTERNOON. S 5-15KTS.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS. IFR/LIFR  
IN SHOWERS AND FOG DOWNEAST. S 5KTS BECOMING NW LATE.  
 
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN NORTHERN TERMINALS. MVFR/IFR DOWNEAST  
POSSIBLY IMPROVING TO VFR LATE. NW 5-10KTS.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/VFR ALL TERMINALS. N 5-10KTS.  
 
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY  
LOW. N 5KTS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM:  
WINDS WILL BE SE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT  
POSSIBLE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS WILL RUN UP TO 4 FT  
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE MARGINAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  
VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN PATCHY FOG WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY  
MORNING.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER  
SHORT TERM...BUSTER  
LONG TERM...BUSTER  
AVIATION...BLOOMER/BUSTER  
MARINE...BLOOMER/BUSTER  
 
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