842
FXUS61 KCAR 080658
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
158 AM EST SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT STORM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
-CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP TYPES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY,
LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND ROTTING OF RIVER AND LAKE
ICE.
2) SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP TYPES. ANTICIPATING
TRAVEL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY, LEADING
TO SIGNIFICANT SNOW MELT AND ROTTING OF RIVER AND LAKE ICE.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A MILD AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. UNDER THIS PATTERN, TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY RISE EACH DAY, LIFTING INTO THE 50S THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BARELY FALL BELOW FREEZING
IF THEY DIP BELOW FREEZING AT ALL. MORE INFORMATION ON
TEMPERATURES WITH RESPECT TO CLIMATE NORMS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
THESE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY ERODE THE
EXISTING SNOW PACK. CURRENT CALCULATIONS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
SUGGEST AROUND 1 TO 2 ADDITIONAL INCHES OF SWE LOSS. CURRENTLY
SWES ACROSS THE CWA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 2 TO 5 INCHES,
WITH RAPID SNOW MELT ONGOING DUE TO CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS. WITH
THIS FORECAST IN MIND, THE SNOW PACK DOWNEAST WILL COMPLETELY
ERODE IN MANY AREAS, WHILE AREAS DOWNEAST AND IN THE NORTH WHICH
DO NOT LOSE ALL SNOW WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW PACK REDUCTION.
ADDITIONALLY, THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT RIVER AND
LAKE ICE ROT AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIP TYPES.
ANTICIPATING TRAVEL IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A WARM FRONT OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY, AND COLD FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
WETTER, WITH ELEVATED VALUES OF QPF, PREDOMINATELY IN THE NORTH,
DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY REMAIN IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
SYSTEMS, AND THE PRECIPITATION TYPES THAT MAY FALL. THE ECMWF
BRINGS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM A LITTLE MORE NORTHWEST OF MAINE,
KEEPING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH, AROUND WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE SOUTH, MOVING HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MAINE DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR. TOO EARLY TO GET EXACT TIMING AND
AMOUNTS, BUT GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED WARM
NOSE AND STEEP INVERSION TO THE SURFACE. LOOKING AT NBM
PROBABILITIES, THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PERIODS OF SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN IS FOR REGIONS GENERALLY NORTH OF BANGOR, DURING
THE DAY OF WEDNESDAY. DOWNEAST, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR UPDATES AS MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND PRECIP TYPES.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
ANTICIPATED TO BRING PERIODS OF ELEVATED WIND GUSTS THROUGHOUT
THE REGION. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FLOODING AND RIVER ICE
BREAKUP WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON THE HORIZON. THIS WILL
ALSO HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SINCE
MODEL PERCENTILE SPREADS CONTINUE TO SHOW ALMOST 20 DEGREE
DIFFERENCES. AS A RESULT, FOLLOWED NBM GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TODAY...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. 40 KT LLWS WILL LAST TO AROUND
SUNRISE THIS MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT INTO THE DAY. VIS WILL
IMPROVE FIRST AT ANY TERMINALS EXPERIENCING BR/FG, THOUGH
-SHRA ARE LIKELY TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING, AND THROUGH THE
DAY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. CIGS WILL TAKE LONGER TO IMPROVE, BUT
WILL SLOWLY APPROACH SCT/BKN MVFR BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SW
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING W THROUGH THE DAY WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KTS.
TONIGHT - MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS. SW
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS SHIFTING S AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25
KTS.
MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT...LIKELY REMAINING VFR. BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT. S/SW WINDS 5-10 KTS POSSIBLY
SWITCHING TO THE N/NE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN IMPACTFUL WEATHER
SYSTEM WITH IFR/LIFR, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND WIND DIRECTION DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. WINTRY
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET, IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. GUSTY E/SE
WEDNESDAY, AND S WINDS THURSDAY. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA CONTINUE TO BE MET THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 4 TO 7
FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE, BUT SHOULD IMPROVE
NONETHELESS, WITH GUSTS FALLING BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY AND
SEAS SLOWLY RESPONDING BY THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
INTRACOASTALS. FOR THE COASTAL MARINE ZONES, SEAS 4 TO 6 FT AND
GUSTS OCCASIONALLY TO 25 KTS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY AS WELL. RAIN SHOWERS AND FOG COULD LIMIT VISIBILITY
THROUGH THIS MORNING. MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT ANY CHANCE
FOR FREEZING SPRAY DEVELOPMENT.
CONDITIONS FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA LATE MONDAY NIGHT,
AND STAY BELOW CRITERIA TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, AS A PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. CHANCE FOR RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
FROM THE SW MONDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING TO THE S BY TUESDAY, AND
SHIFTING TO THE E BY WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO DAILY HIGHS
APPROACHING RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK.
MONDAY, MARCH 9
CARIBOU: FORECAST 47 F; RECORD 47 F SET IN 1998
HOULTON: FORECAST 50 F; RECORD 53 F SET IN 2012
MILLINOCKET: FORECAST 51 F; RECORD 57 F SET IN 2016
BANGOR: FORECAST 52 F; RECORD 59 F SET IN 2016
TUESDAY, MARCH 10
CARIBOU: FORECAST 45 F; RECORD 55 F SET IN 1977
HOULTON: FORECAST 55 F; RECORD 58 F SET IN 1977
MILLINOCKET: FORECAST 55 F; RECORD 54 F SET IN 2016
BANGOR: FORECAST 59 F; RECORD 62 F SET IN 1977
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...AES/ASB
AVIATION...AES/ASB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page