792
FXUS61 KCAR 021137
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
737 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 730 AM UPDATE TO AVIATION SECTION BELOW WITH THE ISSUANCE OF
THE 12Z TAFS
- HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE INTERIOR AND COASTAL
DOWNEAST REGION, INCLUDING THE BANGOR AREA, THROUGH 9 AM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOSTLY NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL AREAS TODAY. RAIN, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS, ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOSTLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TODAY. RAIN, WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE TODAY
WHILE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY IS UNCERTAIN, EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON THEN PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE INTENSIFYING LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHWEST, THEN NORTH, OF MAINE MONDAY DRAWING THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RAIN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
WILL BE LIMITED, COULD ALSO HAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM. RAIN THEN TAPERS TO SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MODELS AGREE THAT THE GREATER RAIN
TOTALS WITH THIS EVENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG THE TRACK OF THE LOW
ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS
REGARDING RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDENT ON
THE LOCATION AND PERSISTENCE OF WHERE AREAS OF HEAVIER RAIN
MIGHT DEVELOP. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE MOVING INLAND FROM THE GULF OF
MAINE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MID WEEK WEAKENS THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MODELS ARE
CURRENTLY SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA WHICH MAY KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF INSTABILITY BUT IS RELATIVELY
UNCERTAIN IN WHEN/WHERE THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SO
WILL NEED TO WAIT TO GET BETTER CLARITY ON STORM LOCATION,
STRENGTH, AND COVERAGE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
TODAY...
NORTHERN TERMINALS: VFR THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON,
THOUGH VARIABLE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW, WITH THE MOST
LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE LIGHTNING BEING KFVE. S WINDS 5 TO 10
KTS.
DOWNEAST TERMINALS: LIFR/VLIFR THIS MORNING WITH FOG. IMPROVING
TO GENERALLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
COULD LINGER ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST. S WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS.
TONIGHT...
NORTHERN TERMINALS: VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR FOG MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT. RAIN
SHOWERS MAY ALSO LIMIT CIGS/VIS. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
DOWNEAST TERMINALS: MVFR/IFR EARLY LOWERING TO IFR/LIFR
OCCASIONAL VLIFR. SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE. AREAS OF DENSE FOG
REGION WIDE. S TO SE WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
MONDAY...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR. RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM. AREAS OF FOG. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY...BECOMING VFR BY TUESDAY MORNING. PATCHY
OVERNIGHT FOG MAY RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. W WINDS 5-10
KTS, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY...VFR, EXCEPT FOR MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG. LIGHT W WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT,
SHIFTING TO SW 5-10 KTS WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT S WINDS.
THURSDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED T-STORMS. SSW WINDS 5-10 KTS.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY.
SHOWERS DEVELOPING TONIGHT. RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. AREAS OF FOG TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WIND GUSTS PEAK AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS OUT OF THE SW WITH SEAS 6
TO 7 FT EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS DECREASE BELOW SCA CRITERIA
MONDAY NIGHT BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY. BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LIGHT SW WINDS.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MEZ015>017-
029-030.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SM/CN
AVIATION...AES/SM/CN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page