220  
FXUS61 KCAR 261159  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
659 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION BY THIS MORNING.  
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER  
LOW WILL PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY AN  
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM ONTARIO TRACKING SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION  
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE  
WEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
7 AM UPDATE...  
LOW STRATUS CONTS TO PLAGUE THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SOME  
SIGNS OF IT ERODING ACRS SRN AREAS. EXPECT DOWNEAST WL BE  
MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WHILE THE NORTH REMAINS CLDY.  
TEMPS DID NOT DROP OFF AS LOW AS FCSTD ACRS THE EAST AND ARE  
STARTING OFF ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS WITH TEMPS TO THE WEST STARTING  
OFF IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. OTHER THAN BRINGING TEMPS AND DWPTS  
MORE IN LINE WITH REALITY, NO CHGS NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...  
HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE HUDSON VLY OF NYS THIS MORNING  
WITH NRLY FLOW ACRS CWA. SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS ALLOWED LOW  
STRATUS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT NRN AREAS SLIPPING SOUTH TWD  
DOWNEAST AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING.  
 
FOR TODAY, EXPECT CLDS TO RMN ACRS THE NORTH WHILE DISSIPATING OVER  
DOWNEAST AFT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. TEMPS LIKELY TO START OFF IN THE  
SINGLE DIGITS ACRS THE NORTHWEST WITH LOW-TEENS ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WL  
REBOUND A FEW DEGREES ABV YESTERDAY'S MAXES WITH UPR 20S ACRS THE  
NORTH TO LWR 30S OVER DOWNEAST.  
 
NEXT SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE OH VLY WL BEGIN TO APPCH NEW  
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. WARM ADVECTION SNOW WL APPROACH THE CWA FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW WL BE VERY LIGHT THRU THE  
OVERNIGHT WITH JUST OVER A DUSTING ACRS WRN AREAS AS MOISTURE BEGINS  
TO RUN INTO DRY RIDGE AXIS SITTING OVER NB LATER TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE  
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 250HPA JET STREAK CLIPS THE AREA. LITTLE  
TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH UPPER 20S  
ACROSS THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. LIGHT WINDS ARE  
ALSO EXPECTED. BY THURSDAY, A COLD UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR JAMES  
BAY WILL DROP SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. A  
SIGNIFICANT LOWERING OF THE DYNAMIC TROPOPAUSE HEIGHT IS NOTED  
ON GUIDANCE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA, WHERE THE IMPINGEMENT OF  
ARCTIC AIR WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE. WHILE THE CORE OF THE UPPER  
LOW AND COLDEST AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO MISS THE AREA,  
OCCASIONAL SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LIFT AND  
MOISTURE ALONG ITS NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. WHILE QPF IS LIMITED,  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A FLUFFY, HIGH SNOW TO  
LIQUID RATIO SNOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME CAPE AND LIFT WITHIN  
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.  
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER  
THE OPEN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO FORMATION OF AN  
INVERTED TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXACT POSITIONING OF THIS  
MESOSCALE FEATURE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN  
INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION OF MAINLY AN  
INCH OR LESS, EXCEPT ACROSS COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE WHERE HIGHER  
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH STRONG NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES  
TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STRONG  
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE HUDSON SEA AND NORTHERN  
QUEBEC INDICATIVE OF A LACK OF UPSTREAM ARCTIC AIR. LINGERING  
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR AND  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY  
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND BY  
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. LOWS MAY BE LOWER  
THAN ADVERTISED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS IF CLOUDS CLEAR  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND STORM SYSTEM WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF  
THE AREA MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH SUPPRESSES  
THE SYSTEM. GIVEN TRENDS AND ENSEMBLES, NBM POPS WERE REDUCED TO  
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING A CHANCE OF SNOW UNTIL MONDAY EVENING. AS  
THE SURFACE RIDGES PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE MARITIMES LATE  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO  
LIFT NORTHWARD AS SHOWN ON SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS WILL  
NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT IS THE NEXT REAL THREAT FOR ANY  
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: IFR AT FVE THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FOR A FEW  
HOURS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN AFTER 20Z. CAR,  
PQI AND HUL BEGINS AT MVFR, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR AND  
DIMINISHING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR AFTER 03Z.  
 
DOWNEAST TERMINALS LIKELY TO SEE FEW-SCT025 THIS MORNING. MVFR  
CIGS MOVE IN AFTER 04Z WITH IFR BY 08Z IN LIGHT SNOW.  
 
SHORT TERM: WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MVFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.  
LIGHT SNOW MAY LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. A BRIEF  
PERIOD OF VFR IS POSSIBLE DOWNEAST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MVFR WITH LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES.  
BREEZY NW WINDS.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS NORTHERN  
MAINE. VFR DOWNEAST. MODESTLY BREEZY NW WINDS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BUT REMAIN  
NEAR 20KTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO  
INCREASE FROM THE EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT STILL UNDER SCA  
LEVELS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 2 FEET OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH  
TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA  
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GUSTS PEAKING NEAR GALE FORCE FRIDAY.  
VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES WITH SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...FARRAR  
SHORT TERM...MSTRAUSER  
LONG TERM...MSTRAUSER  
AVIATION...FARRAR/MSTRAUSER  
MARINE...FARRAR/MSTRAUSER  
 
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