620
FXUS61 KCAR 102047
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
347 PM EST SAT JAN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH AND SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX FOR DOWNEAST AND THE BANGOR
REGION. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
2) GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
3) GUSTY WINDS WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
MONDAY.
4) CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
5) STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTH AND SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX FOR DOWNEAST AND THE BANGOR
REGION. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. ONE WILL TRACK EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THE
OTHER ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT TIMES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH.
THERE WILL ACTUALLY BE TWO DISTINCT BURSTS OF SNOW. THE FIRST
ONE WILL DEVELOP AFTER AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
THE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT/OVERUNNING PATTERN AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MID SUNDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD, ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND 3 AM THROUGH
10 AM SUNDAY MORNING. THE GREAT LAKES LOW WILL THEN TEND TO
WEAKEN AS THE COASTAL LOW TRACKS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A LULL IN THE SNOWFALL IS ACTUALLY
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH GENERALLY ONLY LIGHT SNOWFALL
RATES.
SNOW INTENSITY ONCE AGAIN PICKS UP DURING SUNDAY EVENING AND
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE BETWEEN 7 PM SUNDAY THROUGH ABOUT 1
AM MONDAY MORNING.
FOR THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST MAINE, LESS IN THE WAY OF
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED THERE. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF A WINTRY
MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL
DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING SUNDAY. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SHOW DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE
MID LEVELS TOWARD DAY BREAK SUNDAY AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOPING SUNDAY MORNING. THIS DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR WILL KEEP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DOWN IN THE BANGOR REGION.
THE SNOW DOES ONCE AGAIN PICK UP IN INTENSITY FOR A TIME EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER
SUNDAY EVENING. ONLY SOME LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THEN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFYING ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
PROVINCES DURING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH EXPECTED. THIS WILL RESULT IN PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW LATER SUNDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE USUAL OPEN AGRICULTURAL AREAS OF AROOSTOOK
COUNTY. REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOCALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CAN
BE EXPECTED AS A RESULT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
GUSTY WINDS WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE EXITING
ACROSS THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST WILL SUPPORT GUSTY NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS MONDAY.
THESE WINDS WILL SUPPORT PATCHY BLOWING SNOW ACROSS MOSTLY THE
FAVORED OPEN AGRICULTURAL AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE EXITING
LOW COULD ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE BLOWING SNOW EARLY MONDAY IN
ADDITION TO ALREADY FALLEN SNOW.
KEY MESSAGE 4...
CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
ADVANCE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM. AN EARLY RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD
TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS WEDNESDAY WITH MINIMAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, EXPECT PRECIPITATION
MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW THOUGH THE SNOW COULD POSSIBLY
MIX WITH RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT INDICATIONS ONLY
SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 5...
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH UNCERTAIN TIMING.
KEY MESSAGE 5 DESCRIPTION...
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH TRACKS NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WILL DRAW A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE EXACT TIMING OF
THIS FRONT REMAINS UNCERTAIN DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING/LOCATION
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL STEADILY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
SUPPORTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A FLASH FREEZE DEPENDENT ON HOW
RAPIDLY TEMPERATURES FALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT, THEN
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE TERMINALS 06Z TO 12Z SUNDAY. EXPECT SNOW AT THE AROOSTOOK
TERMINALS AND A WINTRY MIX FOR KBGR/KBHB. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT IN PERIODS OF SNOW.
KBGR/KBHB ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR INTO SUNDAY EVENING IN
MAINLY OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH -FZDZ IS
EXPECTED AT KBGR/KBHB FROM ABOUT 12Z SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS HERE WILL THEN TEND TOWARD MVFR/VFR LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WIND EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN N TO
NE WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KT THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND WILL BECOME N TO
NW SUNDAY NIGHT, AND BECOME GUSTY AT THE AROOSTOOK TERMINALS.
MONDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, MVFR/IFR EARLY WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. VFR/MVFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS, VFR/MVFR EARLY THEN VFR. NORTHWEST/WEST
WINDS 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS, BECOMING
WEST/SOUTHWEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KNOTS.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR NORTH. VFR DOWNEAST.
SOUTHWEST/SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWEST
WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, VFR/MVFR EARLY THEN
LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR WITH DEVELOPING LIGHT SNOW. ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS, VFR EARLY THEN VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW/RAIN. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY...ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, IFR/LIFR WITH LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ACROSS DOWNEAST
AREAS, IFR/LIFR A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW
EARLY. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT... ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS, MVFR/IFR THEN
VFR/MVFR. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS DOWNEAST. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BECOMING
WEST/NORTHWEST.
THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, WELL AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED GALE FORCE WINDS LATER SUNDAY
NIGHT. THUS, TWO SEPARATE HEADLINES WERE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE. THE FIRST FOR THE SCA CONDITIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AND THEN FOR THE GALE
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
GALE CONDITIONS MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM EST MONDAY
FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ050>052.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...TWD/CN
AVIATION...TWD/CN
MARINE...TWD/CN
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