861
FXUS61 KCAR 272000
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
300 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTH, SLIGHT INCREASE TO QPF DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
- INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SNOW AMOUNTS FOR LATE
THURSDAY TO FRIDAY LIKELY LIGHT SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN
MAINE.
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN A NOREASTER SUNDAY/MONDAY GETTING
CLOSE ENOUGH TO AT LEAST BRING DECENT NORTHEAST WINDS TO OUR
AREA. HOWEVER, STILL A TOUGH CALL AS TO WHETHER THE SNOW
REACHES ONSHORE OR STAYS OUT TO SEA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
2) POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN MAINE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
3) POTENTIAL NOREASTER SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WITH LINGERING NORTHWEST FLOW AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE
AREA TONIGHT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY
AREA FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH, BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST
REGION. DRY AIR WILL BE BUILDING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
THROUGH THIS TIME, SO WITH LACK OF MOISTURE SUPPORT, SHOWERS
WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOWFALL.
LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION, WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL EXPECTED. COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SHORTWAVE, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...POTENTIAL FOR 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW OVER NORTHERN
MAINE LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A SOMEWHAT MILDER AND MOISTER ENVIRONMENT WORKS IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST STARTING LATE THURSDAY, AS AIR ROTATES AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE LOCATED AROUND THE PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND TO
NEWFOUNDLAND REGION. THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
INCHES OF SNOW TO NORTHERN MAINE, MAINLY NORTH OF HOULTON. NBM
WAS FAR TOO LOW FOR POPS AND QPF AND RAISED THEM SOME IN THE
NORTH, AS MODELS OFTEN UNDERDO PRECIPITATION IN A WARM ADVECTION
FROM THE NE REGIME. GOOD ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES EXIST FOR HIGH
SNOW RATIOS AND GOOD DENDRITIC GROWTH. THAT SAID, THIS STORM
LATE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY HAS A PRETTY LOW CEILING, AND THINK THAT
AT VERY BEST A FEW PLACES MAINLY IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL AROOSTOOK
COULD TOP OUT AT 3 INCHES, AND MORE LIKELY NORTHERN MAINE TOTALS
WILL BE AN INCH TO POSSIBLY 2. THINK THAT DOWNEAST SHOULD STAY
DRY. THE WARMER AIR COMING IN FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ISNT
THAT MUCH WARMER AND THE WARMING WILL BE LIMITED TO NE MAINE,
WITH TEMPERATURES STILL WELL BELOW FREEZING BUT NOT BITTERLY
COLD.
KEY MESSAGE 3...POTENTIAL NOR'EASTER SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LATE IN THE WEEKEND, A NOREASTER RIDING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GREATLY IMPACT US. ROUGHLY AN EQUAL NUMBER
OF MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE THE PRECIPITATION FROM THE NOREASTER
STAYING OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, WHILE THE OTHER HALF
HAVE POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW REACHING MAINE. IF THE STORM TRACKS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, WIND COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR AS
WELL. DOWNEAST WOULD STAND THE BEST SHOT AT GETTING SIGNIFICANT
SNOW/WIND, BUT IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE IT TRACKS FURTHER NORTH TO
BRING SNOW TO NORTHERN MAINE. BOTTOM LINE IS IT IS WAY TOO
EARLY TO TELL, BUT THE STORM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING. THERE HAS
BEEN A BIT OF A NORTHWARD/SNOWIER TREND IN THE MODELS.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOWNEAST. MVFR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LIFT AND SCATTER OUT THIS
EVENING, BEFORE A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR
CIGS AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR EVEN BRIEFLY IFR VIS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR BY AROUND 10Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS WITH NW WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS.
THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. W WIND 5-10 KTS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...MAINLY MVFR NORTH WITH LIGHT SNOW, AND
VFR SOUTH (BHB/BGR). W/NW WIND 5-10 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS
20 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. W WIND 10
KTS OR LESS.
SUNDAY...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON TRACK OF NOREASTER.
IFR OR WORSE IF NOREASTER TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST, OR VFR IF
IT TRACKS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG NE WINDS IF
NOR'EASTER TRACKS CLOSER TO COAST.
MARINE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH SEAS
4 TO 6 FT. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING, SEAS WILL SLOWLY RESPOND, AND
THE WATERS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25
KTS ONCE MORE WEDNESDAY MORNING ON THE COASTAL WATERS. AT THIS
TIME, LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS
COULD LEAD TO LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCE FOR MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS TOO LOW
AT THIS POINT TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY. CONDITIONS
THEN IMPROVE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FT AND
OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.
THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...
SMALL POSSIBILITY (25 PERCENT CHANCE) OF NW GALES THURSDAY
EVENING. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF GALES AND
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN STRONGER WINDS AROUND SUNDAY/MONDAY FROM A
NOREASTER. STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY, BUT BEARS CLOSE
WATCHING. SEAS 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN
POTENTIAL FOR SEAS AROUND 10 FEET TOWARD SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK OF THE NOREASTER. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH OTHERWISE LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ050>052.
DISCUSSION...AES/TF
AVIATION...AES/TF
MARINE...AES/TF
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