941
FXUS61 KCAR 120005
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 8 PM UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION WITH THE ISSUANCE OF THE
00Z TAFS
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER
NORTH/NORTHWEST AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT TRAVEL, AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
2) LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DOWNEAST TONIGHT AND LIGHT RAIN LIKELY IN
THE NORTH MONDAY.
3) WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE OVER
NORTH/NORTHWEST AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT TRAVEL, AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW A WARM FRONT
TOWARD THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER, DEPENDENT ON
THE ONSET TIME, JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AND THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS SHOULD SUPPORT AN INTERVAL OF
SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE FROM PRESQUE ISLE AND GREENVILLE NORTH. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL FOR MOST PLACES IF THERE IS ANY AT ALL AND
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THERE COULD BE UP TO 3
INCHES MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH WOODS.
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARM INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WE ANTICIPATE
ALL AREAS CHANGING TO RAIN.
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE, WITH
GENERALLY 0.5 TO 1.25 INCHES OF TOTAL PRECIPITATION. FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED, BUT THIS WILL HELP WITH DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DOWNEAST TONIGHT AND LIGHT
RAIN LIKELY IN THE NORTH MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS TRACK SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SHOULD CLIP
DOWNEAST AREAS TONIGHT, BUT TOTALS LOOK QUITE LIGHT WITH ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS, AND MAINLY SOUTH OF BANGOR. THEN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WITH LIGHT RAIN LIKELY MAINLY NORTH OF
BANGOR FOR A FEW HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. TOTALS WILL
BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, WITH READINGS FALLING INTO THE 40S IN THE NORTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN, WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT IT
DOES APPEAR VERY LIKELY MOST PLACES WILL GET AT LEAST 0.25
INCHES OF PRECIPITATION, WITH SOME PLACES EXCEEDING 0.50 INCHES.
WINDS AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARE BOTH POSSIBILITIES DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, BUT ARE NOT LIKELIHOODS AT THIS
POINT...JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TONIGHT...MVFR IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN POSSIBLE LATE DOWNEAST,
WITH GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BEING AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE, WITH A
GREATER CHANCE AT FURTHER NORTH TERMINALS.
MONDAY...MVFR/VFR CIGS, WITH A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY AT
AROOSTOOK TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS, BECOMING
NORTHWEST/NORTH.
MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR, OCCASIONAL LIFR.
RAIN. RAIN POSSIBLY MIXED SNOW TUESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS TUESDAY. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY
NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...MVFR/VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS.
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20
KNOTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR/MVFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN, AND POSSIBLY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTH. WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, BUT HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN SPEED/DIRECTION.
MARINE
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY INTO MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE OUTERMOST WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY,
THEN AGAIN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TF
AVIATION...AES/TF
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