666
FXUS61 KCAR 210826 CCA
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
426 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
-ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM IS NOW ACTIVE.
-SMALL CHANCE FOR AT LEAST AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
-INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO DAMAGE TO
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. THERE IS ALSO A LOW END CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT.
2) WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN LIKELY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MEMORIAL DAY. THIS COULD HELP AID IN MITIGATING ON GOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT AND
LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD TO DAMAGE TO
SENSITIVE VEGETATION. THERE IS ALSO A LOW END CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
AREAS OF FROST ACROSS THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS EXPANDED NORTH TODAY TO INCLUDE ALL
AREAS EXCEPT FAR NORTHWESTERN MAINE. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE AND 60S FOR BANGOR AND POINTS SOUTH OF BAXTER
STATE PARK. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES WILL FALL TO AT OR BELOW
540DAM OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OVER NORTHERN
NY/VT/NH, SO A MODEST BREEZE WILL PREVENT DECOUPLING FOR MANY
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS MAY DECOUPLE AND
FALL TO NEAR FREEZING. THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE WAS BLENDED IN TO
LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT, RESULTING IN
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN BELOW 36 DEGREES ALONG AND NORTH OF BAXTER
STATE PARK. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THIS AREA WHERE THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM HAS STARTED. TO THE
SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY INTO CENTRAL PENOBSCOT
AND NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTIES, SOME AREAS MAY REACH BELOW 36
DEGREES AS WELL, BUT COVERAGE OF THESE TEMPERATURES WAS NOT
SUFFICIENT FOR AN ADVISORY FOR THESE ZONES BASED ON THE CURRENT
FORECAST. NOTE THAT SOME ZONES UNDER THE FROST ADVISORY MAY NOT
SEE FROST DUE TO VERY DRY DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 20S, BUT
NONETHELESS SOME DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE PLANTS IS STILL POSSIBLE IN
THESE LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY AS HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 60 IN THE FAR NORTH TO THE
UPPER 60S FOR BANGOR AND DOWNEAST MAINE.
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST, AND AS A RESULT, LESS
CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, DUE TO THE NEXT
SYSTEM BEING FARTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THE RESULTING SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FOR
MINIMAL IF ANY CLOUD COVER FRIDAY NIGHT, AND QUITE POSSIBLY ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WHILE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT
THEY SHOULD BE NEAR CALM FOR MOST OF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD, UNTIL LIGHT ONSHORE RETURN FLOW SETS UP
LATE. FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD IN GENERAL BY AS COOL, IF NOT A DEGREE
OR SO COOLER THAN TONIGHT. SO THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR
NEEDING FROST ADVISORIES OVER THE SAME AREA AS TONIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO A LOW END CHANCE THAT ON FRIDAY NIGHT A FROST ADVISORY
MIGHT BE NEEDED FOR THE NEXT ROW OF ZONES TO THE SOUTH AND THAT
A FREEZE WATCH/WARNING COULD BE NEEDED FOR NORTHEAST AROOSTOOK.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, IF THE TREND IN SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS AND SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST HOLDS, THEN
LOWS COULD END UP AT LEAST A CATEGORY LOWER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE BEYOND THE
CURRENT LOW END CHANCE FOR FROST ACROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2... WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN LIKELY FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY. THIS COULD HELP AID IN MITIGATING ON
GOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT,
THEN CROSSES MAINE ON MEMORIAL DAY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WEAK
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND/CAPE COD SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN PASS NEAR/JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE MOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE MONDAY.
THIS LIKELY WILL BE BRING A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN TO THE
REGION FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MEMORIAL DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WIDESPREAD 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH OF RAINFALL AREA WIDE. AS A
RESULT EXPECT MONDAY TO BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS FROM
THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. NW WINDS 10-15 KTS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS
TODAY, BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT, AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20-30 KTS FRIDAY.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER LIKELY DEVELOPING FROM SW
TO NE SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE MONDAY. LLWS
POSSIBLE MONDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH
FRIDAY. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID 40S.
A FAIRLY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
SHOULD LIMIT WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO 15 KT OR LESS AND
SEAS TO 4 FT OR LESS. OVER THE OUTER WATERS FRIDAY-MONDAY WINDS
SHOULD BE 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS AT OR BELOW 5 FT.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MEZ002-005-006-010.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PM/MWS
AVIATION...PM/MWS
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