499
FXUS61 KCAR 141848
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
248 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE CENTRAL PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES.
- INCREASING CHANCE OF FLOODING AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST MAINE MONDAY.
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN RAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
2) LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE REGION REMAINS ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ANCHORED NEAR ST JAMES BAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH MULTIPLE
SHORT WAVES CROSSING THE REGION, ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE STRONGEST OF THESE SHORTWAVES CROSSES
THE AREA TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER SHORTWAVE CROSSING FROM
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TONIGHT, THEN CROSSES THE AREA FROM MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING.
THIS TIMING IS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, AS A RESULT, THE
FLOOD THREAT HAS EXPANDED INTO THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST
MAINE ON MONDAY. THERE ALSO IS A LOW END THREAT OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS IN THAT AREA ON MONDAY AS WELL.
THE REGION IS IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET
TONIGHT, THEN IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 90+ UPPER JET BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION HAVE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WILL
HAVE A 40-45KT LOW LEVEL JET PASS TO THE SOUTH FROM THIS EVENING
INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FORCING, COUPLED WITH WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 1.5-1.6 INCHES, CREATE THE RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING. WITH CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SHOWING AREAS OF
1.5-1.75" OF RAINFALL IN 3 HOURS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF A BANGOR TO CALAIS LINE, HAVE EXPANDED
THE FLOOD WATCH EAST TO INCLUDE CENTRAL PENOBSCOT AND NORTHERN
WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 8AM MONDAY. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY HOW
IT SEEMS CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE ON MONDAY, THERE COULD BE A
NEED TO EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH LATER
SHIFTS INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. FOR NOW FORECASTING AROUND
3/4-1/5 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE FLOOD WATCH AREA, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THOSE AREAS
RECEIVING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IF THEIR ARE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF IT DUE TO TRAINING.
AS FAR AS THE SEVERE THREAT GOES, THE BEST THREAT IS FROM AROUND
A GNR TO MLT LINE ON SOUTH TO AREAS NORTH OF A BGR TO PNN LINE.
THIS IS WHERE THERE SHOULD BE THE BEST DAYTIME HEATING INTO
EARLY EVENING BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. FARTHER TO THE
NORTH, CAPES RAPIDLY DIMINISH, BUT WITH SHOWALTER INDICES IN THE
0 TO -2C RANGE, ELEVATED CONVECTION IS A DEFINITE RISK, SO
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT ACROSS MOST AREAS FROM MT KATAHDIN ON NORTH.
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1500-1800 J/KG OF CAPE, 40-50KT OR BULK
SHEAR, WITH 0-3KM ENERGY HELICITY INDEX LEVELS OF 1.5-2.5,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY, TO POSSIBLY DAMAGING
WINDS, HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE, WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO NOT A
NON-ZERO POSSIBILITY (SPC HAS AROUND A 2% CHANCE OF A TORNADO).
IF THERE IS A TORNADO, IT SHOULD BE WEAK AS TORNADOES GO, WITH
PEAK INTENSITY OF EF0/EF1 POSSIBLE.
ON MONDAY, HAVE 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE FORECAST ALONG WITH
40-50KT OF SHEAR. THE MAIN THREAT IS GUSTY WINDS, WITH DOWNDRAFT
CAPES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG FORECAST. THE MAIN THREAT AREA ON
MONDAY IS THE BANGOR REGION AND DOWNEAST MAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
QUICKLY PROGRESS NE CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO CANADA ON
THURSDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
WARM FROM SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE WARM
FRONT SHOULD BE WELL TO THE NORTH WITH INCREASED S FLOW. THE
EXTENDED MODELS SUGGEST THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CREATE A
BLOCKING PATTERN. THIS COULD ALLOW THE LOW THE RETROGRADE
SLIGHTLY, KEEPING THE RAIN BANDS OVER THE REGION, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTH. THE QUESTIONS WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN ADVECT
INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO, IF THE RETROGRADING
DOES HAPPEN, THEN THE RAIN BANDS WILL SLOW DOWN, ALLOWING THEM
TO STICK AROUND LOCALIZED AREAS, WHICH COULD INCREASE FLOODING.
AS OF THIS UPDATE, THE UPPER AIR MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A VERY
MOIST COLUMN IN THE NORTH WITH PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE THE 95
PERCENTILE.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR EVERYWHERE TO GET STARTED. SHOULD SEE IFR OR LOWER DEVELOP
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS TONIGHT AND AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS
AROUND/JUST AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERN TERMINALS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND MIDDAY ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AT NORTHERN TERMINALS FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY S-SW AT
AROUND 10KT WITH SOME LOCAL GUSTS TO 15-20KT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT, THIS EVENING, THEN SE AT 10KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN FROM LATE
TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY. KFVE COULD SEE S WINDS AT LESS
THAN 10KT DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ELSEWHERE.
LLWS IS LIKELY AT KBHB FROM MID EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE OF LLWS TONIGHT AT KBGR,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE WAS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE
TAFS.
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BECOMING VFR AT WESTERN TERMINALS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND AT EASTERN TERMINALS DURING THE EVENING.
THUNDER POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TERMINALS. NW WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. WSW G15-20KT POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. S WIND G15KT POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. SE WINDS G15-25KT POSSIBLE.
LLWS POSSIBLE AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. LLWS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT. W-NW WINDS
G15-20KT POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ON THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT, THEN ON THE
COASTAL OCEAN WATERS ON MONDAY, WITH CORRESPONDING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. THE OUTER WATERS SHOULD SEE WINDS UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS
UP TO 6 FT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL.
A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND REMAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BE 10 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR GALES ON THE COASTAL OCEAN AND OUTER
WATERS FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY ON THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MEZ001>006-010-011-031-
032.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ050-051.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...ARL/PM
AVIATION...ARL/PM
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