637  
FXUS61 KCAR 090619  
AFDCAR  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME  
219 AM EDT WED JUL 9 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE  
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED WELL OFFSHORE WITH SFC RIDGE OVER THE AREA.  
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAS ALLOWED RIVER VALLEY FOG TO DEVELOP  
OVER THE AREA. RIDGE VALLEY SPLIT IS DEFINITELY PRONOUNCED WITH  
SOUCEY HILL SITTING AT 60 AND PQI AT 53. MINS BY MORNING WILL RANGE  
FROM THE MID-40S OVER NWRN AROOSTOOK TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE BANGOR  
REGION AND DOWNEAST WITH MARINE LAYER EVENTUALLY WORKING IT/S WAY  
NORTH.  
 
SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLOUD UP FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS  
MOISTURE RETURNS WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST AND INVERTED TROF  
DEVELOPING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SHOWERS LOOK TO MOVE INTO  
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AFTER 18Z BUT RIDGE AXIS LIKELY TO  
HOLD ON TIGHT OVER REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MAX TEMPS LOOK TO CLIMB  
INTO THE UPR 70S/NR 80 OVER ALL AREAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE  
IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF PISCATAQUIS COUNTY.  
 
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THOUGH H5  
RIDGE LOOKS TO HOLD TIGHT THRU 12Z THURSDAY. AS RIDGE BEGINS TO  
FLATTEN WITH S/WVS RIDING THRU IN THE FLOW CANNOT RULE OUT SCATTERED  
SHOWERS MOVING INTO WRN AREAS THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.  
CAVEAT TO HOW MUCH COVERAGE SHOWERS WILL BRING IS WAVE DEVELOPING  
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE WATERS IMPEDING SFC MOISTURE.  
THEREFORE, EXPECTING ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS WITH TOTAL QPF THRU THE END  
OF THURSDAY BEING AROUND 0.10 INCHES OVER THE NORTH AND WEST.  
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
WILL SWING THE TROF INTO THE REGION. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING  
INTO THE AREA SHOULD PUSH FROM W TO E. LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED  
TO STAY MAINLY TO THE NORTH WITH LESS IN THE SOUTH.  
 
FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHICH WILL KEEP THE TEMPS IN THE 70S ACROSS  
THE REGION. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD CAUSE ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH  
WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT THE SHORTWAVE. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR  
OUT OF THE ARE AFTER MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD STICK AROUND  
THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT GRADUALLY CLEAR BY THE MORNING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY CALM WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND  
NEAR NORMAL TEMPS AS THE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. MODELS  
ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE  
AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN ARE IN BETTER  
AGREEMENT WITH A FASTER MOVING FRONT THAN THE EURO. THE NBM HAS  
HIGHER RAIN SHOWER CHANCES ON MONDAY. DECIDED TO STICK WITH THE  
NBM AS A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND. MODEL LOSE CONSISTENCY BY TUESDAY  
WITH THE GFS SHOWING A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHILE EURO AND  
CANADIAN SHOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
NEAR TERM: VFR AT FVE AND CAR THROUGH END OF TAF VALID TIME. PQI  
AND HUL EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG THIS  
MORNING THROUGH 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR.  
 
DOWNEAST TERMINALS WILL DROP TO IFR AFTER 07Z AT BHB AND 09Z AT  
BGR. CANNOT RULE OUT LIFR AT BHB BETWEEN 08 AND 12Z THIS  
MORNING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 12Z.  
 
THURSDAY MAY SEE CONDITIONS DIMINISH TO MVFR IN SHOWERS,  
POSSIBLE STORMS ,IN THE AFTERNOON OVER MOST TERMINALS.  
 
SHORT TERM: THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL  
TERMINALS DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE SE WINDS 5-10 KTS.  
 
FRIDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE  
FOR SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS.  
WINDS FROM THE SE AT 5-10 KTS.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, THAT  
WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE S/SE.  
 
SATURDAY–SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS,  
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN TERMINALS IN RAIN SHOWERS.  
VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN  
FAR NORTHERN TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE S/SE.  
 
SUNDAY... MVFR CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN TERMINALS FROM LIGHT RAIN  
SHOWERS. WINDS FROM THE S AT 5-10 KTS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT  
LEVELS TODAY INTO THURSDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FEET  
TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED  
IN PATCHY FOG INTO TONIGHT.  
 
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA  
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. SEAS STAY AT OR BELOW 3 FT OVER THE  
OUTER WATERS, AND AT OR BELOW 2 FT FOR THE INNER WATERS.  
EASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KTS ON THURSDAY, SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY BY  
FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...BUSTER  
SHORT TERM...LAFLASH  
LONG TERM...LAFLASH  
AVIATION...BUSTER/LAFLASH  
MARINE...BUSTER/LAFLASH  
 
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