979
FXUS61 KCAR 290736
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
336 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH TODAY AND CROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST ON FRIDAY...APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTH THROUGH
QUEBEC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTH
TODAY WHILE CLOUDS INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN
HIGHLANDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
REACHING THE EASTERN PART OF OUR REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
CAPES OVER WESTERN AREAS ARE UP TO 300K ON THE NAM, AND BOTH
THE NAM AND THE HRRR ARE SHOWING SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS IN THE
SHOWERS, SO WILL CARRY ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGHLANDS.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER,
MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AND A CORRIDOR OF WEAK
LIFT AHEAD OF A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH FROM WESTERN QUEBEC
MAY SUSTAIN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SO WILL INCLUDE
SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
AND A BIT MORE HUMID THAN RECENT NIGHTS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
GUIDANCE AGREES FAIRLY WELL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE SHORT TERM BUT
IS THEN IN TWO DIFFERENT CAMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ON FRIDAY, CWA
WILL BE IN FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW WITH COLD FRONT LOCATED WELL TO OUR
NORTH. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 70S OVER INLAND AREAS WITH FLOW OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THAT SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY NIGHT. H5
TROF WILL BE DEEPENING TO OUR NORTH WITH S/WV ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE TROF IN VICINITY OF NY/PA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. S/WV LIKELY TO
INDUCE SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. BY 12Z
SATURDAY LOCATION OF COASTAL LOW RANGES ANYWHERE FROM SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TO THE NY BIGHT. MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS LOOKS TO BE HINTING AT LOW OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND ON
SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE GONE WITH NBM, GFS AND EC FOR POPS AND
QPF AT THIS TIME.
RAIN IS EXPECTED ALL DAY SATURDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. GIVEN MORE
NORTHWARD SOLN CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDER WITH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE WITH PW VALUES UPWARDS OF 1.25-1.30 INCHES, ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE. HIGHS DURING THE DAY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COLDER
THAN ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION AS NAM/CMC MUCH SLOWER
MOVING SECONDARY LOW NORTH AND THRU ERN SXNS OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, GFS/EC DEVELOP YET ANOTHER SECONDARY (REALLY A THIRD) LOW
OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND AS ANOTHER COMPACT S/WV ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE
TROF. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES AND ENSEMBLE MEANS WASHING OUT THE LOW
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND AN ADDITIONAL 0.10-0.30 INCHES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH H5 TROF HANGING BACK TO OUR WEST. ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING UPR
RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NBM SHOWING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AFTER MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
MODERATING THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT
SHORTWAVES ZIPPING THROUGH BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS NOT EXPECTED THRU THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR THEN IFR OVER THE SOUTH EARLY
TONIGHT AND DROP TO MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
LIGHT SW TODAY THEN VERY LIGHT S TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM:
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR/IFR IN PATCHY
FOG LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SW 5-10KTS BECOMING SE 5KTS FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN, LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES.
LLWS POSSIBLE. SE 5-10KTS, BECOMING SW SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY...MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. SW 5-15KTS.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR S TO N. WSW 5-15KTS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SEAS BELOW 3 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HUMID AIR OVER THE WATERS MAY RESULT IN A BIT OF LIGHT
FOG OR MIST OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS ON FRIDAY WITH SEAS AT
MARGINAL LEVELS FRIDAY EVENING OVER THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS CLIMB
ABOVE 5FT SATURDAY EVENING AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN FOG INTO SUNDAY.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...BUSTER
LONG TERM...BUSTER
AVIATION...BLOOMER/BUSTER
MARINE...BLOOMER/BUSTER
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