842
FXUS61 KCAR 252339
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
639 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- 630PM UPDATE: REFINED/SHARPENED ONSET TIMING OF SNOW THIS
EVENING BY SHARPENING POPS THANKS TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
ONSET TIME.
- INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SNOW TOTALS OF AT LEAST 12 INCHES OVER
MUCH OF DOWNEAST MAINE
- SMALL DECREASE IN FORECAST SNOW TOTALS NORTH OF HOULTON
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS OF 12
INCHES OR MORE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE
2) COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION FROM TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS OF 12 INCHES OR MORE OVER DOWNEAST MAINE
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEAST FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND, PASSING SOUTH OF OUR
AREA IN THE OUTER REGION OF THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT.
AS OF 630PM, SNOW HAS BEGUN IN GREENVILLE, BANGOR, AND BAR
HARBOR, WITH THE LEADING EDGE ADVANCING NORTHEAST. SNOW SHOULD
BE FALLING EVERYWHERE BY JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE DOWNEAST AND BANGOR REGIONS TONIGHT
WHERE SNOWFALL RATES ARE LIKELY TO REACH AT LEAST 1 TO 2 INCHES
PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY FAVORABLE PROFILES FOR
EFFICIENT SNOWFALL AS MUCH OF THE SATURATED LAYER BETWEEN THE
SURFACE AND 500MB IS IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE WHICH COMBINED
WITH AMPLE LIFT WILL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF
SNOWFALL. CURRENTLY EXPECTING SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO MAX OUT
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 TO 1 WHICH WILL LEAD TO VERY LIGHT, FLUFFY
SNOW. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER
RATIOS GIVEN HOW FAVORABLE THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE IS, BUT
HIGHER WINDS ALOFT EXCEEDING 30 KTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTRIBUTE TO
SOME CRYSTAL BREAKUP AS FLAKES FALL.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LIGHTEN IN INTENSITY OR EVEN STOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW BEGINS TO EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES.
THIS PERIOD OF LIGHTER SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES AND SWINGS
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW ROBUST THIS SECOND ROUND OF SNOW WILL
BE. SOME HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS AN INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA WHICH COULD FAVOR SEVERAL MORE INCHES.
THERE IS ALSO A BLOWING SNOW THREAT ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST
MONDAY AND POSSIBLY MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
IN THIS AREA AND MAY GUST TO 20 TO 25 KTS AND SNOW WILL
CERTAINLY BE VERY LIGHT SO LOFTING OF SNOW IS DEFINITELY A
POSSIBILITY. EXPECT TEMPORARY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BUT NOT
WIDESPREAD, PERSISTENT WHITEOUTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO RUN AROUND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE
TEENS EACH DAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND HOVERING AROUND
ZERO. WITH A SUSTAINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVERHEAD THROUGH THE
WEEK, ENOUGH WIND MAY EXIST SUCH THAT CONDITIONS MAY MAKE A RUN
FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT MAY FALL INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
WINDS COULD BEGIN TO EASE OFF IN BETWEEN TROUGH AXES, AND SHOULD
SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT, AIR TEMPERATURES COULD FALL INTO THE
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO UNDER EFFICIENT SURFACE DECOUPLING AND
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S FRIDAY INTO THIS
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME A LOW PRESSURES SYSTEM COULD BE PASSING
SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE AND EXITING INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES, AND THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM COULD HAVE FURTHER
IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURES, WIND, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS GREAT IN LOW POSITION FOR THIS WEEKEND AT
THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
TONIGHT...AS OF 2330Z, CONDITIONS HAVE RAPIDLY DETERIORATED TO
IFR (DUE TO VISIBILITY) AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS EVENING IN
SNOW, AND SHOULD GET DOWN LIFR MAINLY DUE TO VISIBILITY BY ABOUT
2-3Z AS THE SNOW BECOMES HEAVIER. FURTHER NORTH, THE SNOW MOVES
IN 5-7Z FROM HUL NORTH TO PQI, CAR, AND FVE. IT WON'T BE AS
HEAVY FURTHER SOUTH, WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO AROUND 2-3 SM
RATHER THAN LESS THAN 1 MILE WHICH IS EXPECTED AT BHB/BGR. WINDS
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT MAINLY BHB/BGR, WITH NE WINDS 10-15 KTS
SUSTAINED WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY AT BHB.
MONDAY...CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS SNOW BECOMES LIGHTER
ALLOWING FOR BETTER VISIBILITY. IFR EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
THE DAY IN LIGHT SNOW BUT SOME PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE. NE
WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS EARLY AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY.
MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY EARLY MONDAY NIGHT
LEADING TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. MVFR POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AT NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH VFR POSSIBLE LATE AT SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. N/NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
TUESDAY: MVFR NORTH, VFR FOR SOUTHERN TERMINALS, A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR ACROSS ALL TERMINALS WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS. WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR W WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WITH A FEW
GUSTS TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY: IFR/MVFR IN POSSIBLE SNOW. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
MARINE
GALE CONDITIONS BEGIN TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN MARGINAL GALES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS, SCA
CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
GALES. SEAS PEAK AT 8 TO 12 FT MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY ON THE INTRACOASTAL WATERS TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY EVERYWHERE MONDAY AND MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
MONDAY NIGHT.
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
FALLING BELOW 25 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL HANG ON FOR
LONGER, WITH SEAS 5 TO 10 FT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING DROPPING TO
3 TO 7 FT BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL FINALLY SETTLE AROUND 2 TO
5 FT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOWARDS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY APPROACH AND CROSS SOUTH OF THE GULF
OF MAINE. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY ACROSS ALL WATERS
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY COULD THREATEN
ONCE MORE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ001>004.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST TUESDAY FOR MEZ005-006-010-
011-015>017-029>032.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-
051.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ052.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ052.
DISCUSSION...AES/SM/TF
AVIATION...AES/TF/SM
MARINE...AES/SM
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