834
FXUS61 KCAR 181832
AFDCAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
232 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CRESTS SOUTH
OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AND CREST
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED WELL OFFSHORE WITH DRIER AND MUCH COOLER AIR
FILTERING DOWN FROM CANADA. NW WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO 20-30 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. SKIES HAVE ESSENTIALLY CLEARED OVER MOST
OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A FEW CUMULUS REMAINING AS SOME MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS. EXPECT THAT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
MINS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S OVER THE NORTH WOODS AND
UPPER 50S OVER DOWNEAST. WINDS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT
ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. HIGHS
DURING THE DAY WILL CLIMB BACK TOWARD NORMAL VALUES. DIURNAL CU IS
EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AS NEXT SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL DROP INTO EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBTLE S/WVS BRINGING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE
IN THE EVENING BEFORE PRESSING SOUTHWARD.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SUNDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL TROF SHIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
TIMING. HOWEVER, THE TIMING AND AMOUNT OF QPF IS STILL DIFFERENT
ACROSS THE EXTENDED MODELS. VORTICITY SHOWS A VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTH, SO SIDED WITH THE NBM RAIN FALL AMOUNTS BEING
HIGHER IN THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT: THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY AND PICK
UP SPEED. THIS WILL PUSH THE REST OF THE RAIN OUT OF THE REGION
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL WITH 925MB MODEL TEMPS AROUND 6C. IN
ADDITION, WITH CLEARING LATER IN THE NIGHT, TEMPS COULD DROP
INTO THE UPPER 40S IN THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S IN THE SOUTH.
MONDAY: HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. EXPECT
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH BREEZY NW WINDS. TEMPS SHOULD EACH INTO
THE MID 60S IN THE NORTH AND LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATED THE REGION THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPS SHOULD WARM BACK TOWARDS THE UPPER 70 TO
LOW 80 BY THE END OF WEEK. THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOWER MAY
REACH THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, BUT EXTEND MODELS ARE VERY
INCONSISTENT WITH THE TIMES AND TRACK. DECIDED TO GO WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE WITH THE NBM.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: VFR AT ALL TERMINALS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SKC EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SCT VFR DEVELOPING LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH BUT REMAIN VFR. EXCEPTION WILL BE DOWNEAST TERMINALS LATE
WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS TO MOVE IN TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM: SUNDAY...MVFR NORTH. VFR SOUTH. LIGHT SW WIND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR, BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTH. VFR SOUTH. NW WIND BECOMING GUSTY.
MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WIND.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. LIGHT NW WIND.
TUESDAY...VFR. LIGHT NW WIND.
WED...VFR. SW WINDS.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS MAY APPROACH 4FT OVER THE OUTER
WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ029-
030.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...BUSTER
SHORT TERM...LAFLASH
LONG TERM...LAFLASH
AVIATION...BUSTER/LAFLASH
MARINE...BUSTER/LAFLASH
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