441
FXUS61 KGYX 232317
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
717 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. JUST
BLENDED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER
FIELDS TO THE GOING FORECAST. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE AVIATION
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN INTO
FRIDAY.
2. A STRONG COASTAL STORM WILL TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TO END THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH SOAKING RAIN, GUSTY
WINDS, AND HIGH SURF INCREASINGLY LIKELY. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
AND SPLASHOVER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE PEAKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY
ON THURSDAY, KEEPING A SEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE. ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
WITH A FROST ADVISORY ISSUED FOR MORE INTERIOR ZONES AND INTO
THE MIDCOAST TONIGHT. OVERALL TONIGHT LOOKS SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
LAST NIGHT THROUGH THE SHELTERED VALLEYS, WHILE A BREEZE KEEPS
HILLTOPS WARMER. SOUTH OF THESE AREAS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN, A
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE OVERNIGHT KEEPS ANY FROST ISOLATED AND
PATCHY. DURING THE DAYTIME, MAINLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S CONTINUE.
WHILE THE HIGH BRINGS COOL AND FAIR WEATHER TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES
TO ORGANIZE TO OUR SOUTH. THE SURF CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS A LONG EASTERLY FETCH STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
NORTH ATLANTIC BETWEEN THE HIGH OVERHEAD AND THE DEVELOPING
STORM SYSTEM. THESE WAVES BRING INCREASINGLY LARGE BREAKING SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WHILE THERE ARE STILL DETAILS TO IRON OUT, MODELS HAVE OVERALL COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE STRONG COASTAL LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY BEFORE SLOWING DOWN AND
LINGERING NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE
DECREASING SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING HIGH SURF, GUSTY WINDS, AND A
SOAKING/BENEFICIAL RAIN. WITH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ON THE INCREASE,
STORM SURGE MAY ALSO PUSH WATER LEVELS CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD
STAGE NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ALONG WITH SPLASH OVER.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHEST IN SURF BECOMING DANGEROUS BY FRIDAY AS
INCOMING SWELLS AND A LONG FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO
BUILD SEAS...WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY REQUIRING A HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE INCOMING
LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST. SO REGARDLESS OF THE
LOW TRACK, BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY, MOST NOTABLY
ALONG THE COAST. THESE SHOULD START BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT MOST GUIDANCE HAS THE PERIOD OF THE STRONGER
WINDS SPANNING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
IS A LITTLE LATER AS IT HAS SLOWED LIFTING THE LOW NORTH. BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE, 30-40 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST LOOK REASONABLE,
AND THESE COULD EXCEED 40 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FROM CAPE
ELIZABETH SOUTHWARD. THIS COULD CARRY A LIMITED POWER OUTAGE THREAT
WITH LEAVES STILL ON TREES. UNLESS THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER NORTH,
WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR SHOULD BE MORE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE.
A SOAKING AND BENEFICIAL RAIN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS THE LATEST
NBM POPS BRING 60-70% SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND 70-80% ALONG THE
COAST AND PARTS OF SE NH. AS FAR AS TIMING, FRIDAY LOOKS TO STAY
MOSTLY DRY, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS, ENSEMBLE MEANS
FROM THE ECMWF/GFS (INCLUDING THE ECMWF AIFS/AIGEFS) FAVOR A
WIDESPREAD 1-2" SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASING
PROBABILITIES (60-80%) FOR 2+" ALONG THE COAST FROM ROUGHLY
PORTLAND EXTENDING SOUTH TO THE SEACOAST. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL BE STEEPENING, PERHAPS ENOUGH TO ALLOW A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, AND THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND
HIGHER RAIN RATES AT TIMES. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED,
SOME ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM THE SEACOAST EXTENDING INTO
COASTAL CUMBERLAND, WITH SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE HAVING
10-20% POTENTIAL FOR 4 INCHES OF RAIN ON THE HIGH END
LASTLY, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE TRENDING HIGHER THIS WEEKEND, AND
MODELS ARE ADVERTISING SURGE APPROACHING 1.5 TO 2 FEET, WHICH COULD
PUSH WATER LEVELS CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE ALONG THE COAST AROUND THE
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. SPLASHOVER IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY MONDAY AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST, BUT THE DRIER CONDITIONS ARE MORE
LIKELY BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG
LIKELY AT LEB AND HIE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY WITH IFR POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL ALSO
BRING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KT FOR COASTAL SITES AND
20- 30 KT INLAND. IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY
MONDAY.
MARINE
AN EASTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY, AND CONTINUE TO BUILD
THURSDAY NIGHT WHILE A STORM ORGANIZES OFF THE CAROLINAS.
FRIDAY-WEDNESDAY...A STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK AND LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE POTENTIALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF
MAINE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR THIS WEEKEND, NORTHEASTERLY GALES ARE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE NEARSHORE AND OUTER WATERS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL IN THE BAYS AS WELL. A FEW GUSTS TO STORM FORCE CAN'T BE
DISCOUNTED OVER THE OUTER WATERS AS WELL. IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY BUT MORE LIKELY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS
AWAY TO THE EAST, ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS TO SUBSIDE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MEZ012>014-022-028-033.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NHZ003>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ150-152.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ154.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ154-180-182-184.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/COMBS/HARGROVE
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