704
FXUS61 KGYX 051458
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1058 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AS SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHERN MAINE AND INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY CLIMB IN
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, BUT VALUES SHOULD LEVEL OFF WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARRIVING IN ADDITION TO RAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1. UPPER LOW CONTINUES CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
FOLLOWS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.
2. LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
UPPER LOW OVER NOVA SCOTIA WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TODAY WITH A SPOKE
OF ENERGY ROTATING NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THIS SPOKE OF ENERGY WILL INCREASE CLOUDS THIS MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AS WELL AS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CAMS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS WILL
MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS TO INTERIOR/SOUTHERN NH
WHILE THE COASTAL PLAIN REMAINS MOSTLY DRY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS SOUTHWEST NH.
CLOUD COVER AND COOLER NE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER NH INTO TONIGHT WITH TREND
TOWARDS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN
SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH WITH UPPER LOW STILL NEARBY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL FAVOR MORE
SUNSHINE THAN TODAY WHILE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL MONDAY FOR FAIR WEATHER AND HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NORTH TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WHILE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE LEADING
TO MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AGAIN ON TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A SURFACE LOW OVER MANITOBA WILL DEEPEN AND
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS JAMES BAY INTO QUEBEC WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MISS THE REGION TO THE
NORTH, BUT THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY. MODELS SUGGEST DEEP MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
POLEWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOWING PWATS
AROUND 1.50 INCHES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TIMING OF THE FRONT AS
MODELS SPREAD TIMING BETWEEN WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY
MORNING. SHARP HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT SUGGESTS
THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE
OUT OF CSU IS PICKING UP ON THE SIGNAL FOR STORMS BOTH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. LATEST NBM BRINGS CHANCE POPS TO MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH LIKELY POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY
MID THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS BECOME POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THAT COULD BRING MVFR, MAINLY
FOR THE NH TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT FOR
MOST SITES, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL VALLEY FG MAY BRING IFR- LIFR
RESTRICTIONS AT LEB AND HIE ONCE AGAIN. N WINDS WILL PREVAIL
WITH DAYTIME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. NO LLWS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY: VFR WITH DECREASING CLOUDS, BREEZY NW WINDS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE FOR LEB/HIE.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: VFR WITH NO SIG WX. WIND SHIFT POSSIBLE WITH
PASSING COLD FRONT.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF SHRA ADVANCING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
DAY. THIS COULD BRING MVFR CIGS.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR NOVA SCOTIA THROUGH
TONIGHT, KEEPING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. GUSTS MAY OCCASIONALLY
APPROACH 25 KTS TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER THE FAR OUTER WATERS
WITH GUSTS TO 20 KTS ALONG THE INNER COASTAL WATERS. WINDS RELAX
SUNDAY AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
VARIABLE WINDS TURNING ONSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE WITH WINDS
AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS INTO WEDNESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/PALMER/SCHROETER/TUBBS
AVIATION...TUBBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page