577
FXUS61 KGYX 150026
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
726 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE HAS CHANGED WITH THIS EVENING'S UPDATE. LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUES TO FALL FOR THE MOST PART WITH SOME HIGH ELEVATION
SNOWS. SHOULD START SEEING SOME FOG DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS LIGHT RAIN AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND
ACCUMULATING SNOW, MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FEET, TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
COLDER AIR ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THAT MAY ALLOW FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TO NORTHERN VALLEY FLOORS.
2. SNOW LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM THE COAST TO THE MOUNTAINS.
LOCATIONS WITH COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, LIKE THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS, MAY EXPERIENCE MORE SLICK SPOTS THAN THE COAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
QUEBEC WITH A COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND MID TO UPPER 40S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. A SHORT WAVE
SWINGING ACROSS MICHIGAN WILL LEAD TO A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS EVENING
WHEN PRECIPITATION BREAKS OUT. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVES OVER THE AREA,
WHILE AREAS ABOVE 2500 FEET WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. WARM AND MOIST AIR MOVING OVER THE
SNOWPACK TONIGHT WILL ALSO LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT.
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY MORNING ALLOWING FOR RAIN
TO TAPER OFF SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE VALLEY RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN MAINE
MOUNTAINS. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, COLDER AIR WILL WORK IN THAT WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN
SHOWERS TO CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS.
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH IS EXPECTED WITHIN NORTHERN VALLEYS
THAT COULD CREATE SOME SLICK TRAVEL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY
NIGHT WILL HELP ADVECT MOISTURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY. WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL JET
OVERHEAD, THERE WILL BE SOME CONVERGENCE AT THE SURFACE TO
PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ABSENT ANY
NEARBY PRESSURE SYSTEM HOWEVER, DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT
QPF.
WITH NO WARM NOSE ALOFT, PRECIP TYPE SEEMS CLEAR CUT AT
RAIN/SNOW. SNOW IS MORE CONFIDENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
FOOTHILLS, AND MOUNTAINS, BUT SFC TEMPS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
RAIN AT THE COAST. HOWEVER, WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 20S, HAVE REASON TO BELIEVE FLAKES WOULD BE THE RESULT ALL
THE WAY TO THE COAST. ACCUMULATION MAY BE HAMPERED HERE,
ESPECIALLY ON TREATED SURFACES, THUS THE CHANCE FOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS LIES TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
BARRING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DISTURBANCE PROGRESSION AND
CHANGE TO QPF, A DUSTING TO TWO INCHES SEEMS LIKE A LIKELY RANGE
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH THURSDAY...CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH 00Z WITH
LIGHT RAIN AND FOG LIKELY TONIGHT RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CIGS LIKELY CONTINUE IFR TO MVFR FROM 12Z
TO 18Z THURSDAY WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING SOUTH TO NORTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KHIE WHERE LOW CIGS
AND SHRA CHANGING TO SHSN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT LEAST MVFR
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS.
KHIE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR CIGS WITH 30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS.
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NO SIG WX. W WINDS GUSTING AROUND
20 KTS DURING THE DAY.
SATURDAY: BECOMING MVFR WITH LIGHT SN ARRIVING SOUTH TO NORTH.
SN TAPERS OFF IN THE EVENING.
SATURDAY NIGHT: MVFR WITH SOME IFR CIGS.
SUNDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PASSING LOW
PRESSURE COULD BRING SN WITH VIS RESTRICTIONS OR ONLY SOME
LOWERED CIGS.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY... SEAS WILL CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND THROUGH
THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSES THE WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLY GALES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS SLOWLY TREND TOWARD SCA INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WINDS
BECOME SW. WAVE HEIGHTS REMAIN 5 TO 7 FT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
3 TO 5 FT WAVES BY SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK INTO THE GULF OF MAINE IN
THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE EXACT TRACK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ150>152-154.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/EKSTER/SCHROETER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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