220
FXUS61 KGYX 250623
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
223 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. HOWEVER, IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SOME FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY DEPENDING ON IF THE LOW PRESSURE'S SLOWING TRENDS
CONTINUE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE.
2. QUIET WEATHER COMES TO AN END WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNING FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DESPITE WEAK UPPER TROUGHING FROM TIME TO TIME OVER THE
WEEKEND, WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH SOME DIURNAL CU. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME VALLEY FOG EARLY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE
CT RIVER VALLEY. IT IS ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO HAVE SOME
ON THE MIDCOAST AS WELL AS MOSTLY MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES.
NEAR-SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR BOTH TODAY AND
SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW COOLING THE COAST DOWN EACH AFTERNOON.
VALLEY FOG IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, AND
POSSIBLY AT THE COAST AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND ATLANTIC HIGH BUILDS
NORTHWARD, PARKING A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL
DEEPEN THE TROUGH, DRIVING A 995 MB SURFACE LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
THIS IS ACTUALLY A RATHER DEEP LOW FOR JULY. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
NOTABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. THE GFS/GEFS FAVORS
A WEAKER, MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION FURTHER SOUTH, WHEREAS THE
ECMWF/EPS DEPICTS A STRONGER (WETTER), CLOSED LOW FURTHER NORTH. A
SIGNIFICANT TREND SINCE YESTERDAY'S GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR THE
SURFACE LOW TO SLOW DOWN/OCCLUDE OVER NEW ENGLAND WED NIGHT-
THURSDAY. AS SUCH, THE END OF NEXT WEEK IS TRENDING WETTER.
IN TERMS OF LOCAL IMPACTS, GENERALLY EXPECTING A WET FEW DAYS FROM
TUESDAY-THURSDAY, BUT POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY DEPENDING ON
HOW QUICKLY THE SURFACE LOW EXITS OFFSHORE. THE STAGE WILL BE SET
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS SURGE TO 1.5-2.0", WITH DEW
POINTS WELL INTO THE 60S. WE WILL SEE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH A BIT OF A COLD POOL ALOFT. THIS WILL
SUPPORT MODEST INSTABILITY OF UP TO 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. THUS, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, BUT ESPECIALLY FOCUSED DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIMEFRAME WHEN SURFACE INSTABILITY IS
MAXIMIZED. IT WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE AND COME IN A FEW WAVES,
RATHER THAN BE RAINING THE ENTIRE TIME, THANKFULLY. WITH THAT SAID,
LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE BEEN ABUNDANTLY DRY THIS
MONTH, SO SOME SOAKING RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL ASSUMING IT IS NOT
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE.
DESPITE THE INCREASING HUMIDITY, SHOULD HAVE SEASONABLE IF NOT
SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPERATURES, GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
LOWERING 500 MB HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION IS
AT KLEB AND KHIE WHERE VALLEY FG IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 09Z-13Z SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. KRKD MAY SEE IT
AS WELL, WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE KPWM SEES IT FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY. NO LLWS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED
SHRA MAY CAUSE BRIEF LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS LIKELY DUE TO RA
AND POSSIBLE TSRA.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR EAST OF THE GULF
OF MAINE.
OUTLOOK: THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RELAXED WITH WINDS AND SEAS SAFELY
BELOW SCA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS PROJECTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE EAST
COAST, SUPPORTING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THE
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM MAINLY TUE-WED. LOOKING AT INCREASING WINDS
AND SEAS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS. QUIETER WEATHER FOLLOWS
FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/EKSTER
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