898
FXUS61 KGYX 200645
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
145 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA STARTING FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MESOSCALE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DIFFICULT TRAVEL IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE AS MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL
CONTINUE INTO WESTERN MAINE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FRIDAY
EVENING COMMUTE WITH SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
2. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BE PASSING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONFIDENCE
IS HOLDING STEADY THAT RELATED IMPACTS (LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY
WINDS) LOOK LIMITED AND LIKELY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SURFACE LOW OVER ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING WITH A
SECONDARY LOW FORMING SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND, NY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PRODUCE A NW TO SE BAND OF FGEN FORCING AT 700
MB THAT WILL PRODUCE A NORTHEASTWARD ADVANCING BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW. THIS BAND MOVES ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THAT REACHES SOUTHWEST MAINE TOWARDS THE END OF THE FRIDAY
EVENING COMMUTE. THIS SIGNAL IS CAPTURED WELL IN THE WPC SNOWBAND
PROBABILITY TRACKER ADDING CONFIDENCE FOR A LATERALLY TRANSLATING
SNOWBAND WITH THIS FGEN FORCING AT 700 MB. THE LATEST HREF MEAN
SUGGESTS THAT SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.75 TO 1.5 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND AS IT SWIFTLY MOVES ACROSS SW NH INTO
CENTRAL NH BETWEEN 4 PM AND 7 PM. WHILE PREVIOUSLY OUTLIERS, THE 00Z
NAM/NAM3K HAVE COME IN LINE WITH OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS LEADING TO
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS BAND WILL START TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FAR WESTERN MAINE
WHILE SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 7 PM AND 11 PM. THESE TIMES REFERENCE THE SNOW BAND WHILE
SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BAND. THE BULK OF
THE STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THIS BAND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING AT PRECIPITATION
ONSET WITH SOME RAIN TO START POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NH AND
COASTAL YORK COUNTY. THIS ALONG WITH LOWER SNOW RATIOS HAVE KEPT
SNOW TOTALS DOWN HERE WITH NO CHANGES TO THE GOING WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AND WINTER STORM WARNINGS. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST,
LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERMAL PROFILES WILL SUPPORT
MOSTLY AN ALL SNOW EVENT WITH THE WARM NOSE STAYING SOUTH OF THE
NH/MA BORDER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN A SECONDARY BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS THAT DEVELOPS AROUND 850 MB AS THE COASTAL LOW STARTS
TO DEEPEN. SOME MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SUGGEST THIS FGEN
COULD BRING ANOTHER BURST OF SNOWFALL INTO SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL
SW MAINE THAT COULD PUSH SNOW TOTALS UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES. OVERALL
SNOW TOTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
PACKAGE WITH A SWATH OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF NH INTO
WESTERN MAINE WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND EAST OF AUGUSTA.
A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT MOVES
OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW
WILL END BY MID DAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 20S
NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ADDRESSING THE ELEPHANT IN THE ROOM RIGHT OFF THE BAT, GLOBAL
MODEL CAMPS AND THEIR AI COUNTERPARTS HAVE TAKEN NOTABLE JUMPS
NORTHWESTWARD AGAIN THIS EVENING. THE WAVE THAT DIGS IN AND
GENERATES THE LOW PRESSURE OF INTEREST IS JUST GETTING INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SAMPLING THROUGH THE RAOB NETWORK OR
OTHERWISE IS LIKELY GIVING THE MODELS A DIFFERENT IDEA ABOUT THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN THEN THEY ORIGINALLY HAD. THIS IS GOING TO
MAKE THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS QUITE INTERESTING TO WATCH TO
SEE IF THEY ACTUALLY HOLD THIS TREND. HOWEVER, FOR OUR AREA THE
WORST CASE SCENARIO STILL LOOKS TO BE JUST A GLANCING BLOW. EVEN
WITH THIS NEW IDEA OF A CLOSER TRACK, THE RESULT IS
CONSISTENTLY MAYBE AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR
THE COASTAL PLAIN. 20/01Z NBM PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL HAVE INCREASED TO 50% FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
FAR SOUTHERN MAINE, INCREASING TO 70% ALONG THE EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS BORDER. PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN AN INCH
HAVE INCREASED TO 30-40%, WITH 20% PROBABILITIES EXTENDING INTO
THE FOOTHILLS. THIS LIMITS ANY IMPACTS TO POTENTIALLY SLICK
TRAVEL THROUGH THE POPULATION CORRIDOR FOR THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE, BUT CERTAINLY NOT ANYTHING UNMANAGEABLE. A CLOSER TRACK
WOULD ALSO RESULT IN GUSTIER WINDS FOR THE COASTAL PLAIN.
OUTLIERS LIKE THE GFS BRING GUSTS OF 35-40 MPH INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN, WHILE MORE REASONABLE SOLUTIONS SHOWING 25-30MPH WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. OVER THE WATERS
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF GUSTS 45+ MPH. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PARAMETER TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
LASTLY, ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES ARE AROUND 10FT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WHICH NORMALLY ISN'T TOO CONCERNING, BUT IF THERE IS
GOING TO BE SOME DEGREE OF A SURGE FACTOR IN THAT TIMEFRAME IT
MIGHT BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. IN SUMMARY THE CONFIDENCE IN A
LOW IMPACT EVENT REMAINS MODERATE TO HIGH, BUT THE EXACT
DETAILS STILL NEED SOME IRONING OUT AND HOPEFULLY SOME AGREEMENT
IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HELP WITH THAT.
FOLLOWING THE COASTAL SYSTEM WE END UP WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK. FOR THOSE NOT
SATISFIED WITH A GLANCING COASTAL BLOW, THERE IS SOMETHING TO
WATCH TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
A CLIPPER MAY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
IN THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR WITH CEILINGS LOWERING THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY -SN BEGIN AT MHT, LEB, CON AROUND
18Z AND TOWARDS PSM, PWM, HIE BY 21Z. ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT AUG
AND RKD LIKELY SEE IFR/LIFR IN SNOW BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVY WITH VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO 1/2SM POSSIBLE SNOW MOVES INTO AUG AND RKD
AFTER 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT SATURDAY; IFR/LIFR IN SNOW LIKELY THROUGH 06Z WITH
VISIBILITY TO 1/2SM REMAINING POSSIBLE AT KMHT, KPSM, KCON,
KLEB, AND KPWM. SNOWFALL RATES LESSEN BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z WHILE
IFR LIKELY CONTINUES. CONDITIONS IMPROVE GRADUALLY THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY AS LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: SNOW TAPERS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR, WHICH SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE THAT MOST TERMINALS
AVOID RESTRICTIONS AS LOW PRESSURE REMAINS MOSTLY OUT TO SEE.
HOWEVER, COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: ANY TERMINALS THAT EXPERIENCE
RESTRICTIONS TREND BACK TO VFR, AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE HIE WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
BRINGING MVFR CEILINGS TO THE MOUNTAINS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF CAPE COD TRACKS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
EASTERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS TURN
NORTHEASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS AND SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-6 FEET. SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS DROP BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED NEXT WEEK
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSING EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BUILD
SEAS AND INCREASE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BUILD UP TO 10-13 FT DEPENDING IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW, WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE LIKELY AS WELL. ELEVATED WINDS WOULD TAPER
OFF TUESDAY, BUT RETURN WEDNESDAY EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE WATERS. SIMILARLY THE WAVES FALL MORE GRADUALLY BUT FALL
BELOW 5FT WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR MEZ012-013-019>021-024>026-033.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
MEZ018.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR MEZ023.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NHZ002>004.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
NHZ005>011-015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NHZ012>014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...BARON/SCHROETER
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