219
FXUS61 KGYX 031745
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1245 PM EST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER WAKING UP TO A SNOWY LANDSCAPE THIS MORNING IT WILL
CERTAINLY FEEL LIKE DEEP WINTER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL BARREL THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS ALONG THE FRONT WILL GIVE WAY TO GUSTY
WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL FROM THE 30S
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN BELOW ZERO IN PLACES BY FRIDAY
MORNING. WIND CHILLS EVEN AT THE COAST WILL BE BELOW ZERO. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ARRIVE LATER FRIDAY AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES RETURN SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER TONIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE RELOADS AFTER
OUR STORM. TEMPS WILL BE COOL BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT SHOULD PREVENT ANY EXTREME RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THU AROUND MIDDAY OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER ARRIVES IN THE FORM OF
A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME WARM ADVECTION
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MOST OF WHAT
PRECIP DOES FALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT. CONDITIONS LOOK
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS ALONG THE FRONT. IT
WILL BE A WELL MIXED AND GUSTY ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW STATIC
STABILITY AND TEMPS FALLING THRU FREEZING. THE SET UP IS RIPE
FOR SNOW SQUALLS THAT MAKE THE ROADS A MESS AS READINGS FALL
INTO THE 20S BEHIND THE FRONT. IT IS NOT SURPRISING THAT THE
SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS LIGHTING UP ACROSS THE REGION. I HAVE
BLENDED SOME HI-RES CAM GUIDANCE INTO THE NBM TO HIGHLIGHT THE
POTENTIAL TIMING OF SHOWERS THRU THE FORECAST AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT IT WILL GET GUSTY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST 30
TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE NBM WAS A BIT TOO LOW BASED ON THESE
FORECAST...SO I ONCE AGAIN INCLUDED SOME HIGHER RES GUIDANCE TO
BEEF THE WINDS UP.
THE WINDS WILL ALSO COMING WITH PLUMMETING TEMPS. BY FRI
MORNING WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED GOING BELOW ZERO
NORTH OF THE MTNS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ALL IN AGREEMENT ON AN
ANOMALOUS AIR MASS...WITH EXTREME TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
POSSIBLE. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH NBM FORECASTS OF RECORD OR
NEAR-RECORD TEMPS...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. WITH THE COLD
TEMPS AND CONTINUED GRADIENT WINDS...WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH 20
BELOW IN THE NORTHERN ZONES THU NIGHT. NOT SOLD THAT WE STAY
THAT WINDY OVERNIGHT SO I WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT GET
ANOTHER LOOK BEFORE ISSUING ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT, EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING IN
ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FRIGID TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH, TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE SOUTH. WHILE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELAXING, SOME WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15
MPH RANGE WILL LEAD TO SOME FRIGID WIND CHILLS STICKING AROUND
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
COLD TEMPERATURES WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH THE DAY UNDER NEAR ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER 20S
FOR MOST, BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW SINGLE DIGITS IN/AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOME MID 20S ALONG THE COAST.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AND THEN WE TRANSITION BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW STARTS TO ROTATE TROUGHING INTO
THE REGION. WHILE MOST OF THE FORCING SHOULD GENERALLY STAY OUT OF
OUR AREA, WE COULD SEE ENOUGH OF A GLANCING BLOW TO BRING IN AT
LEAST LOW CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW (~20 TO 30 PERCENT) ON SATURDAY.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT WARMER, MAINLY RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S. MEAN TROUGHING STICKS AROUND THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY BEHIND A SURFACE COLD FRONT, POTENTIALLY BRINGING
SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND VICINITY. HIGHS WILL
BE ANOTHER TOUCH WARMER ON SUNDAY, MAINLY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
TO MID 30S.
THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK WILL BE CHILLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
HIGHS MAINLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS TO THE LOWER 20S ON MONDAY
AND THE MID TEENS TO THE MID 20S ON TUESDAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY
MORNINGS WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. A FEW AREAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL PROBABLY
SEE WIND CHILLS IN THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO
COME MID TO LATE WEEK. THAT BEING SAID, IT IS STILL WAY TOO EARLY
FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THRU TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THAT ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL DRIVE THRU THE REGION THU AND
BRING A CHANCE FOR HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS AND BRIEF LOCAL
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. BEHIND THE FRONT SURFACE WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE INTO THU NIGHT. NORTHWEST OF THE MTNS SOME
LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE IN UPSLOPE FLOW/SNOW SHOWERS.
LONG TERM...WINDS SHOULD BE RELAXING FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH SOME STICKING AROUND IN AND
AROUND THE MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS COULD BE
POSSIBLE IF ANY OF THESE SHOWERS MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. OTHERWISE,
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH WINDS GENERALLY BELOW
20 KTS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BUT THE BREAK IN WINDS WILL BE BRIEF. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL BLAST ACROSS THE WATERS THU AFTERNOON AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND IT. GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR ALL WATERS INTO THU NIGHT. WHILE WATERS ARE STILL RELATIVELY
WARM...THE COMING AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE COLD AND SOME POCKETS
OF FREEZING SPRAY ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
LONG TERM...WIND AND SEAS SHOULD BE RELAXING FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
THIS AIR MASS ON FRI MORNING WILL BE ANOMALOUSLY COLD AND LOW
TEMPS WILL APPROACH RECORDS. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE TRUE AT PWM
WHERE THE FORECAST IS 4 DEGREES AND THE PREVIOUS RECORD IS 7 IN
BOTH 1989 AND 1945. THE FORECAST AT AUG IS 5 DEGREES AND THE
PREVIOUS RECORD IS 4 SET IN BOTH 1989 AND 1991.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-
153.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...HARGROVE
AVIATION...HARGROVE/LEGRO
MARINE...HARGROVE/LEGRO
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