969
FXUS61 KGYX 020632
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
232 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INCREASED ICE COVERAGE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND HAVE
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR WESTERN
MAINE AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN NH FOR LIGHT ICING INTO THE FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS A WARM FRONT INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MIXED PRECIPITATION
LOOKS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUS EVENTS BUT IT SHOULD BE
LIGHT. SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT THE LIGHT AMOUNTS SHOULD KEEP IMPACTS MINIMAL.
2 TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN
LIKELY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A RETURN TO DRIER
WEATHER IS THEN LIKELY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR
TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MAINLY A
COLD RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND FAR SW THROUGH MID MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY
AND WILL PRESS SOUTH ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERN NH TO SEE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES HOLDING OVER THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP SOUTHERN AREAS
COOLER WITH HIGHS AROUND 40F WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH THAT SEE
SOME SUN WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 40S, EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTH
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST TODAY AND THEN TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SE CANADA TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL LIFT THE
STALLED BOUNDARY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL ALLOW
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LATE THIS EVENING BEFORE PRECIPITATION ONSET. WARM AIR ADVECTION
ALOFT COMBINED WITH SUB FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BRING
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE THE INTERIOR WITH A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. OVERALL
PRECIPITATION AND ICING AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, BUT HAVE ISSUED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO
ACCOUNT FOR LIGHT ICING BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK TRAVEL
INTO THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NH WHERE ICING LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED THESE ZONES YET INTO THE
ADVISORY.
THE WARM FRONT WILL PRESS NORTHWARD FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA BY LATE MORNING.
THIS WILL TRANSITION ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO RAIN SHOWERS
WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
AN H5 S/WV RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD INTO THE 40S/50S WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY INTO THE 50S AND 60S ONCE AGAIN IN
MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AS
STACKED LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TOWARDS QUEBEC
AND IN DOING SO SENDS A SFC WARM FRONT NORTHWARD. THIS WILL
RESULT IN OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH OVERNIGHT, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN. DEPENDING ON SFC
TEMPERATURES, SOME FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS THOUGH. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS THEN LIKELY
ON SUNDAY UNTIL A TRAILING COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE IN THE DAY.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD INTO THE 50S AND
60S.
OTHER THAN SOME UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MTNS AND
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER, DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER LATE
DAY MVFR CONDITIONS MAY CREEP INTO SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE QUICKLY AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS HAS A HIGHER CHANCE OF
FEATURING A WINTRY MIX AND BRINGING ABOUT IFR CONDITIONS.
IFR LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR IS LIKELY AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. CONDITIONS
POSSIBLY IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PATCHY FOG.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SOME MVFR CEILINGS ALONG
WITH -SHRA IS POSSIBLE LATE DAY ACROSS NH TAF SITES.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY RAIN),
FOG AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY. CONDITIONS MAY START TO
IMPROVE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
MONDAY: MVFR CEILINGS AND RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT HIE.
OTHERWISE, VFR.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE WATERS IS KEEPING WAVE HEIGHTS
ELEVATED, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WINDS
THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, ENDING UP SOUTHERLY BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION.
FRIDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRIDAY
EVENING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OUT AHEAD OF IT
GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT. WINDS SWITCH W/NW BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
THEN QUICKLY TURN NORTH TO EAST ON SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS. THESE MAY ALSO CONTAIN
GUSTS TO SCA LEVELS. FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH SCA GUSTS LIKELY, BUT
GALES ARE POSSIBLE. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE INTO MONDAY AS
WINDS BECOME W/WNW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
FRIDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MEZ012>014-020>022-033.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR NHZ001>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ151.
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/SCHROETER/TUBBS
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