279
FXUS61 KGYX 251043
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
643 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
A TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK BRINGING DAYTIME SHOWERS
THROUGH MID WEEK. CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED AND RELATIVELY
COOL INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
640AM UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NH. SOME OBSERVATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE VIS IN THE REGION
PROMPTED A SPS SEEING AS IT IS INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. DON'T
THINK FOG IS WIDESPREAD OR WILL LINGER ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
DENSE FOG ADV AT THIS TIME. DENSE CLOUD MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL HELP THIN THIS FOG OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS, AS WELL AS
DAYTIME HEATING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REMAINING OVERNIGHT FOG, MAINLY IN VALLEYS, WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPS REBOUND, BUT CLOUDS WILL TEND TO FILL
BACK IN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.
DAYTIME HEATING, INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50, BELOW COOL
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CREATE FAIRLY STOUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES OF 6.5 – 7.5 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE A FEW RUN THROUGH
THE LOWER KENNEBEC VALLEY AND ALSO THE MONADNOCKS AS WELL. ANY
TIME THE FREEZING LEVEL IS THIS LOW WITH LIGHT CONVECTION, HAVE
TO ALSO CONSIDER GRAUPEL PRODUCTION. HOWEVER, WARM AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS CAPS CAPE DEPTH AND THEREFORE CHANCES TO SEE THAT AS
A SERIOUS CONTENDER.
SHOWER COVERAGE PEAKS MID AFTERNOON WITH HEATING, RETREATING TO
THE MOUNTAINS COME THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT, WITH SOME CLEARING COASTWARD OF THE
INTERIOR. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 20S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS,
AND WILL EVENTUALLY EXPAND INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH BROAD
SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KICK OFF ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS KEPT ADDITIONAL LOW PRES OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE, THUS THINK MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP FORCED BY THIS WILL FALL OFF THE COAST. DECIDED TO
INSTEAD FOCUS ON TIMING SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOULD AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, THESE MAY BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WITH BETTER PRECIP RATES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
10 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
AS OF THIS TIME THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT NO
SIGNIFICANT STORMS WILL AFFECT THE CWA THIS WEEK UNTIL PERHAPS
THE WEEKEND.
PREVIOUSLY...
BEHIND THE WAVE WEDNESDAY, UPSLOPING PROBABLY CONTINUES SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGHS REACH THE 40S WITH
WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 MPH. ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING WAVE
BRINGS YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY,
OTHER THAN LINGERING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS
ONCE AGAIN.
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INCREASE OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG SUPPORT IN THE
ENSEMBLES FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER, IT'S MUCH TOO EARLY
TO DETERMINE PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...FOG WILL LIMIT VIS EARLY THIS MORNING, DISSIPATING
A COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED WITH HIE
NEAR MVFR CEILINGS MUCH OF THE DAY. SKIES BECOME MORE BKN AS THE
DAY GOES ON, WITH SHRASN PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
DISSIPATING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE SHOWER BASES WILL
BE AROUND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. VFR TONIGHT, WITH
A SIMILAR SETUP FOR WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING
RESTRICTIONS TO THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN LOCATION OR DEGREE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. MVFR SEEMS TO BE THE
MOST PROBABLE, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR ALONG COASTAL SITES.
MOSTLY VFR THURSDAY-FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD BRING A
FEW RESTRICTIONS WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA, MAINLY DUE TO WAVES, WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WAVES LIKELY CONTINUE OFF THE
ME COAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER PASSING
LOW OUTSIDE THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW.
LONG TERM...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH
LATE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SW OR NW WINDS AS A COUPLE OF WEAK
FRONTS PASS THROUGH. THESE MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SCA
CONDITIONS WITH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKING LIKE THE
BETTER POTENTIAL. FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND LOOKS MORE ONSHORE AND
THEN MORE SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ154.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...COMBS/EKSTER
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