604  
FXUS61 KGYX 290707  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
307 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES TODAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS NEW  
ENGLAND AND BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH IT. FRIDAY LOOKS  
TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS, BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT ALSO  
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER WEEKEND RAIN EVENT, AS A  
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. COOLER  
WEATHER WILL LINGER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL WARM UP  
BEGINS AGAIN.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/  
 
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:  
* NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED  
 
LATEST RAP 13 ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE  
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NEW JERSEY WITH A PRECIP  
SHIELD JUST STARTING TO GET LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW  
HAMPSHIRE AT THIS HOUR. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLIGHTLY  
NORTHWARD, BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THIS LOW TAKING A  
TRACK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SO I HAVE REDUCED POPS QUITE  
A BIT IN SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE  
MAJORITY OF OUR WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FROM LOW PRESSURE  
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS IT WILL STREAM CLOUDS  
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE REGION AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.  
WITH THE WAY THIS ONE IS TRACKING I ANTICIPATE SHOWERS TO BE HIT  
OR MISS IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF HITS IN  
INLAND LOCATIONS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH FORCING  
INCREASING AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT SOME OF  
THESE SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AND  
COULD INCLUDE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES, WILL  
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH THE MIDCOAST AND KENNEBEC VALLEY  
STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF REACHING THE LOW 70S AS THEY WILL  
SEE THE LEAST IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL  
STAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THANKS TO A SEABREEZE.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:  
* NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED  
 
TONIGHT: LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT  
WITH A SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BE  
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF  
THE NIGHT AND THEN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON  
AND LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE GULF. FORCING WILL BE DECREASING  
DURING THIS PERIOD SO SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT. MOSTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WILL  
SLOW COOLING, AND TEMPERATURES LIKELY ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE  
LOW 50S. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH MAY LEAD TO  
SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION, WITH DENSER FOG MORE LIKELY ALONG THE  
MAINE COAST AND ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED  
ONSHORE.  
 
FRIDAY: MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR FRIDAY AS WELL WITH  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BREAKING UP THE OVERCAST, BUT THIS IS WHEN WE  
WILL SEE BETTER FORCING BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA AS THE  
SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES APPROACHING FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY  
SKIES, I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIT  
OR MISS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS, WITH THE CAVEAT BEING THAT  
BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE REGION, A MOISTENING COLUMN, AND  
WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LEAD TO THEM HAVING A MORE CONVECTIVE  
NATURE AND CONTAINING BRIEF DOWNPOURS. MY APPROACH WITH POPS  
HERE WAS TO KEEP THEM LOW TO EMPHASIZE THE ISOLATED NATURE OF  
THE SHOWERS, AND ALSO KEPT THEM MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AS A  
SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE STABLE. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE  
AREA WITH BREEZY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
1055 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NOTED IN THE LATEST NBM WITH  
STRONG SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL SATURDAY.  
ADDITIONAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN A CLOSING UPPER LOW WILL  
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY WHILE THE TRENDS WILL BE  
TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLES FAVOR BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER  
THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PROMOTE  
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND RISING TEMPERATURES.  
 
PREVIOUSLY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE: ANOTHER WEEKEND...ANOTHER RAIN EVENT. A WIDESPREAD  
SOAKER IS EXPECTED SAT AND COOL START TO NEXT WEEK BEFORE A GRADUAL  
WARM UP.  
 
IMPACTS: STORM ON SAT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO AVOID BIG QPF AND  
FLOODING THREAT, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LOCALLY HIGHER  
AMOUNTS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW IN THE HIGH PEAKS AS THE  
TROF SWINGS THRU THE NORTHEAST.  
 
FORECAST DETAILS: ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW HAS QUITE A STRONG  
SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SAT. THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS ON  
TIMING OF PRECIP...DURING THE DAY SAT. IN ADDITION THERE IS A  
GOOD SIGNAL FOR A NEAR 3 SIGMA LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE  
REGION. SUCH A STRONGLY FORCED LOW PRESSURE THIS TIME OF YEAR  
WILL NO DOUBT SPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA  
GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK. WITH POP ALREADY AT CATEGORICAL I DID  
NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE NBM FORECAST.  
 
A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM. WITH  
SUPPORT FOR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. WITH  
THE CURRENT FORECAST AROUND 40 DEGREES WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR  
SOME 30S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS SUN NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE  
WORK WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
SHORT TERM...CLOUD DECKS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TODAY AS LOW  
PRESSURE BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE REGION, BUT MOST TERMINALS WILL  
ONLY FALL TO MVFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. COASTAL TERMINALS  
AND AUG MAY SEE CEILINGS FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW STRATUS  
AND FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL PREVAIL ON  
FRIDAY AS WE SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE  
AREA. MVFR WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS CEILINGS  
THICKER AND LOWER HEADING TOWARD THE EVENING.  
 
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS RAIN  
MOVES IN. WIDESPREAD IFR IS LIKELY. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS  
IS EXPECTED BY SUN.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH  
THE DAY FRIDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION.  
 
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LATTER  
HALF OF FRI IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST  
COAST. SCA CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY  
THRU SAT. DEPENDING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH I CANNOT RULE ON A  
LOW CHANCE OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OUTER WATERS.  
 
 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
NEAR/SHORT TERM...BARON  
LONG TERM...LEGRO/SCHROETER  
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