970
FXUS61 KGYX 241028
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
628 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY AROUND 9 AM.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TODAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
2. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES LATE IN THE WEEK,
BOOKENDED BY PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK AND OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A CUT OFF LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES
MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY. THIS BRINGS THE CHANCE
FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT OVERALL A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS GENERALLY WARM INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80S
WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING.
DESPITE THE FRONT PASSING, THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS LINGERS AS THE CUT OFF LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES TAKES A
FEW MORE DAYS TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA. SO WHILE THE OVERALL TREND IS DRIER, SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS IN
PLACE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE COAST, TO THE UPPER
40S THROUGH THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. A STRAY SHOWER CAN'T RULED
OUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS STILL. SEASONABLE TEMPS RETURN ON
TUESDAY AGAIN, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.
EARLY MORNING FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, IS LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
UPPER-LEVEL LOW FINALLY FULLY EJECTS OUT OF THE REGION BY
WEDNESDAY. BRIEF RIDGING WED-EARLY THU SHOULD BRING TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS WITH COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS PERSISTING AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH, WHICH WILL ADVECT A MORE
HUMID AIRMASS BACK INTO THE REGION.
A SURFACE LOW CLOSES OFF OVER HUDSON BAY, SENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE INDICATES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PRIMARILY IN
INTERIOR ZONES AWAY FROM THE COAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE
ON FRIDAY WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT THAT LOOKS MORE WIDESPREAD AS
OF NOW.
NOTHING NOTEWORTHY FOR RAINFALL AT THE MOMENT, BUT LONG RANGE
MODELS DO ALREADY HAVE A 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL EXCEEDING
A HALF INCH. AT FIRST GLANCE QPF IS SCATTERED, INDICATING A
MORE CONVECTIVE PRECIP DISTRIBUTION IS POSSIBLE. SHOULD SEE GOOD
MOISTURE RETURN WITH DEW POINTS REACHING THE UPPER 60S, WHICH
WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY JUICE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
FIRST STAB AT NEXT WEEKEND SUGGESTS IT COULD BE A PLEASANT ONE
WITH DRYING WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, USHERING IN
COMFORTABLE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S/50S. IT WILL BE A WAIT AND SEE
TO KNOW FOR SURE THOUGH, AS SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE COLD
FRONT MAY GET HUNG UP NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MARINE FOG AND LOW STRATUS KEEPS IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. A RETURN TO VFR BEHIND
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED FROM WESTERN SITES IN THE EARLY MORNING,
TO LATE MORNING FOR EASTERN SITES. A SCATTERED SHOWER OR STORM
IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VFR PREVAILING
OTHERWISE. VALLEY FOG WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT LEB AND
HIE, WITH VFR THEN RETURNING BY MID MORNING TUESDAY AND
PREVAILING.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG AT NIGHT.
MARINE
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. REDUCED VISIBILITY IN MARINE FOG IS LIKELY THROUGH
MIDDAY TODAY BEFORE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FOR MIDWEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS LIKELY LATE
IN THE WEEK, WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/CLAIR/EKSTER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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