731
FXUS61 KGYX 120529
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1229 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST UPDATE OF THE LATEST FORECAST
PACKAGE. GALES HOISTED FOR CASCO BAY AND PENOBSCOT BAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WINDS PEAK EARLY THIS MORNING, GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES.
HOWEVER, THEY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
2. THERE ARE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION NEXT
WEEK, BEGINNING WITH A MINOR SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM EXISTS LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS INTO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES ALLOWING FOR
APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO RISE WELL INTO THE 20S THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, AFTER A MAINLY SUNNY MORNING (EXCEPT THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE SOME UPSLOPE SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY STILL BE
ONGOING) CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AS WAA ENSUES
IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE OTHER THAN SOME
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES ON TUESDAY WITH WITH HIGHS AROUND
40S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD TROUGH
STARTING TO SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AT
THE SURFACE WITH AN ATTENDANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY STARTING TO BREAK
OUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
LOW ENOUGH FOR THIS TO START AS SNOW IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA, BUT THEY WILL BE MORE MARGINAL FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF
WHICH IS LIKELY SEE IT START AS RAIN. THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
WEDNESDAY KEEPING PRECIPITATION GOING. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DRIVES TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, SO RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE DOMINANT FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, COLD AIR BEGINS SINKING BACK INTO THE AREA
TRANSITIONING PRECIPITATION TO SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ENSEMBLES HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR THE
WEDNESDAY PERIOD, NOW 0.10-0.25" IN 24 HOURS WHICH IS LIGHT, AND
ITS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY RAIN, SO ANY SNOW MAY ONLY AMOUNT TO
A COATING TO MAYBE AN INCH FROM THE FOOTHILLS NORTH, WITH ANY
ACCUMULATION LESS LIKELY FOR POINTS SOUTH.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE AFTER THAT. MODELS
SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW OFF THE DELMARVA THURSDAY
THAT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY EASTWARD. WITH THE TROUGH AXIS ALSO
CONTINUING EASTWARD WE COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE PULLS IN COLDER AIR. ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT REMAINS LOW FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT OUT OF THIS WITH
MEAN QPF SPREAD CURRENTLY 0.10-0.25" BETWEEN MODELS. SNOW
RATIOS TEND TO BE HIGHER IN THESE SITUATIONS, SO THIS WOULD BE
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD LIGHT ACCUMULATION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE SUPPORT IS FOR THE HIGHER AXIS OF
MOISTURE TO STAY WELL OFFSHORE. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS, THEN A BRIEF
SHORTWAVE RIDGE LOOKS TO MAKE FOR A DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE BETTER SIGNAL FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM LOOKS TO
COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WITH CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWING MORE
THAN HALF OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HAVING SIGNIFICANT QPF. HOWEVER,
THIS IS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND LOW PRESSURE
ORIGIN AND TRACK ARE GOING TO PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN THE OUTCOME.
FOR NOW JUST WORTH A MENTION AND SOME CHANCE POPS.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT THE MOUNTAINS FOR
TODAY. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KT IN THE MORNING
THEN DIMINISH. VFR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY NIGHT: IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS AT LEB AND HIE.
MVFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
WEDNESDAY: LEB AND HIE GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR AS SNOW TAPERS OFF.
VFR TO POSSIBLY MVFR PREVAILS AT ALL OTHER TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS AT LEB AND HIE. MVFR
RESTRICTIONS MORE LIKELY AT OTHER TERMINALS IN LIGHT RAIN EARLY BUT
COULD LOWER TO IFR IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW) AND
IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
GALES WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN AT SCA LEVELS
TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE CROSSES
THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. WIND GUSTS EASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT SEAS DON'T FOLLOW SUIT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE WEATHER PATTERN
BECOMES QUITE ACTIVE AND SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS LOOK TO
MAKE THERE WAY THROUGH POTENTIALLY KEEPING SCA CONDITIONS
AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
DISCUSSION...BARON/EKSTER
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