037
FXUS61 KGYX 292358
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
758 PM EDT TUE SEP 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND.
2. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE WEAKENING NOR'EASTER IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF NOVA SCOTIA AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE ACROSS WESTERN ME WITH ENOUGH LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE STILL AROUND. THESE CHANCES WILL QUICKLY FADE TOWARD
EVENING WITH THE SYSTEM FURTHER EXITING TO THE EAST THROUGH TONIGHT
AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM THE WEST.
THERE WON'T BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF WIND TONIGHT, AND GIVEN THE
WIDESPREAD RECENT RAINFALL, PATCHY FOG IS FAIR GAME FOR MOST THE
AREA AND COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE, ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND RIVER
VALLEYS.
ONCE FOG CLEARS UP BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY, BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND PARTLY SUNNY
WEATHER FOR BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WELL TO THE SOUTH, NEW ENGLAND WILL SEE PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA. 850MB TEMPS OF
APPROXIMATELY +9C TO +10C SUPPORTS HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S
WEDNESDAY, AND +11C TO +12C SUPPORTS MID-UPPER 70S THURSDAY.
THE EXCEPTION IS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE OCEAN KEEPING THE
MIDCOAST A FEW DEGREES COOLER. VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, BUT AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING TOO MUCH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ON FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST. AHEAD OF THIS LOW THURSDAY NIGHT, A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT MAY ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS. DESPITE BENIGN
INSTABILITY, THE LACK OF FORCING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP
SHOWER ACTIVITY ISOLATED THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE CENTER OF THE LOW MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND COULD BRING STEADY RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
STILL VERY LOW ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS, WITH SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING MORE RAIN THAN OTHERS. IN ADDITION, THE PLACEMENT OF THE
RAINFALL TOO IS ANOTHER THING THE MODELS SEEM TO STRUGGLE WITH TOO.
THE 12Z RUN OF THE NAM TODAY HAD THE BULK OF THE RAIN NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC HAD A MORE SOUTHERLY
PLACEMENT OF SAID RAIN. TAKING A LOOK AT THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE, NH AND
WESTERN ME HAVE A 50-80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.1" OF RAIN AND
BETWEEN A 15% AND 30% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 0.5" OF RAIN.
AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GET
MUCH COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. RADIATIONAL
COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT COULD ALSO LEAD TO SOME FROST IN LOCALLY
COLDER PARTS OF THE INTERIOR.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...MVFR CIGS REMAIN MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS
WESTERN ME INTO TONIGHT WHILE SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS COULD BE VFR
OR MVFR. FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, FOG IS POSSIBLE AT ALL
SITES BUT IS MOSTLY LIKELY TO BRING IFR TO LIFR AT LEB, HIE, AND
CON. FOG SHOULD LIFT BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY VFR
THROUGH 00Z.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT -THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING TO BRING IFR OR
LOWER AT HIE AND LEB.
FRIDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
SUNDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE DUE TO SHOWERS.
MARINE
THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBISIDE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE WEAKENING NOR'EASTER
EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED SOUTH OF THE WATERS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY. THESE BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY BUT ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS.
MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS COULD GET NEAR
SCA LEVELS OCCASIONALLY. SEAS OF 2-4FT EXPECTED.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/PALMER
AVIATION...SCHROETER
MARINE...
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