819  
FXUS61 KGYX 190130  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
930 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY AND  
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY,  
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHWEST WIND TO WARM THINGS UP A BIT.  
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY  
NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
930PM UPDATE...  
CONTINUED COOL AND QUIET TONIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS  
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOUTHWESTERN NH BEING THE  
EXCEPTION. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S AT MOST  
LOCATIONS ON THEIR WAY DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS  
ABOVE ZERO. WILL MAKE MINOR UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT  
MESONET TRENDS.  
 
620PM UPDATE...  
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE NORTH WITH SOME BROKEN SKIES OVER  
SOUTHERN NH THIS EVENING, PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. EXPECT WINDS  
TO DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW  
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START DROPPING QUICKLY AS WELL AS  
RADIATIONAL COOLING GETS GOING. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST  
PACKAGE.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS A  
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORT WAVE  
MAY BRING ALONG WITH IT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT  
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE, A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING  
NIGHT SHOULD BE HAD IN THE NORTH, WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS  
NORTHERN NH GETTING DOWN CLOSE TO ZERO TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TUESDAY AND  
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. A SECOND WEAK SHORT  
WAVE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS ACROSS  
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS  
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD GET TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE  
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER RADIATIONAL  
COOLING NIGHT SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR COLD  
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT  
ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH DAY 10. TRY AS IT MAY PACIFIC  
ENERGY HAS FAILED TO PERMANENTLY BREAK DOWN THE STUBBORN RIDGE  
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE YET AGAIN AS  
THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WEDNESDAY  
WEAKENS AND GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID  
ATLANTIC REGION BY THE WEEKEND. THAT LEADS TO RISING HEIGHTS AND  
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RECOVERING TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE  
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE WESTERN  
CONUS RIDGE HAS REESTABLISHED ITSELF WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH  
ONCE AGAIN HERE IN THE EAST. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES  
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A TRAILING  
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND SNOW  
SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING  
FRONTAL TIMING AS WELL AS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY  
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND TRACK OF SECONDARY  
LOW...SOME ACCUMULATING WET SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND  
EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PRODUCE  
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A  
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON  
MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY  
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.  
 
LONG TERM...  
THU...MVFR IN -SHRA/-SHSN. AREAS OF IFR PSB THU NIGHT IN -SN.  
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.  
 
FRI - SAT AM...AREAS OF MVFR -SHRA/-SHSN.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM...  
WED PM - SAT...SCA'S LIKELY...WITH GALES PSB OUTSIDE THE BAYS.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
POHL  
 
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