868
FXUS61 KGYX 081723
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1223 PM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
PLACE. LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST, BRINGING SNOW AND
SOME RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD AIRMASS GRADUALLY
SETTLES IN FOR THE END OF THE END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
SATELLITE IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME MARINE STRATOCUMULUS STREAMS PROTRUDING OUT
TO SEA. BREEZY WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH A QUIET BUT CHILLY SECOND HALF OF THE DAY
EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES
TO CLEAR AND WINDS TO CALM. THESE FACTORS, IN ADDITION TO THE FRESH
SNOWFALL RECEIVED THIS MORNING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MUCH COLDER
NIGHT TONIGHT. LOWS LOOK TO BE NEAR 0F ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
LOWS POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE -5F TO -15F RANGE NORTH OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH -20F ACROSS NORTHERN NH
AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
A MOSTLY CLEAR DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY, THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
WORK IN FROM THE WEST BY THE END OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD REBOUND QUITE A BIT FROM THE COLD MORNING LOWS, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S UP NORTH TO LOWER 30S ALONG THE
COAST.
A WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA. THE
LOW LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY BRING MORE CONVECTIVELY-DRIVEN SNOWFALL, AS
SOUNDINGS SHOW AT LEAST A TRANSITION INTO AN ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL
LIKELY BE FAVORABLE FOR SNOW SQUALL DEVELOPMENT. THIS LINE OF SNOW
SHOWERS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK INCH ACROSS NH AND WESTERN MAINE,
THOUGH THE MIDCOAST REGION MAY SEE A LITTLE MORE. LOWS WILL BE
CHILLY, BUT NOT AS COLD AS MONDAY NIGHT'S, WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
OVERVIEW...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS THEN MOVES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE.
DETAILS...
LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES IN THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE
WARM FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE
SAME TIME, PRESSURE FALLS LIKELY OCCUR OFFSHORE DURING THE
DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD. WITH THIS SET
UP, WARM AIR LIKELY REACHES THE COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
WILL THEN STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND DURING THE DAYTIME.
GIVEN THE SET UP, FORECAST TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED FROM WHAT
THE NBM HAD USING COLDER GUIDANCE FROM THE CANADIAN AND EURO.
WITH THE COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE AND ARRIVAL TIME OF THE PRECIP,
THERE IS LIKELY ROOM TO BRING THE FREEZING LINE CLOSER TO THE
COAST, BUT WE'LL USE THIS AS A FIRST STEP WITHOUT GOING TOO FAR
FOR NOW.
THIS SET UP BRINGS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
WITH ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. A BURST OF SNOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST TO START,
BUT TEMPS LIKELY RISE ENOUGH TO SWITCH TO RAIN ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE DAYTIME. AGAIN, WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR ANY
TREND TOWARD A COLDER SOLUTION GOING INTO THE EVENT, AS MODELS
ROUTINELY UNDERESTIMATE THE STUBBORNNESS OF THE COLD IN PLACE.
SO RAIN MAY ULTIMATELY END UP RESERVED FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD A COLDER SOLUTION
COME TO FRUITION.
FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, A SEASONABLE DAY IS EXPECTED FOR
THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD AIRMASS ARRIVES. COLDER AIR
RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED
FOR LOWS. FRIDAY LOOKS COLD AND BLUSTERY AS AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
RETURNS ON NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE REST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS
SEASONABLY COLD, WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM TO
BRING A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND ,
BUT WE'LL HAVE TO WAIT A FEW DAYS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO COME INTO A
CLOSER VIEW.
AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING THROUGH
THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. A BRIEF REDUCTION IN CONDITIONS
APPEARS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. MIDCOAST SITES LIKE KAUG AND KRKD APPEAR TO BE AT THE
GREATEST RISK FOR RESTRICTIONS, THOUGH THEY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM...IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
INTERIOR SNOW AND COASTAL RAIN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH VFR LIKELY FOR MOST BY THURSDAY. LEB AND HIE STAND
THE BEST CHANCE TO HOLD ONTO MVFR CEILINGS WITH AN INCREASING
UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND. VFR MOSTLY PREVAILS, BUT THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SIMMER AS SEAS
FALL BELOW 5FT AND NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS SLACKEN.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. ON TUESDAY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST,
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE DAY. THEY SHOULD REACH SCA LEVELS BY
THE END OF THE DAY. SEAS ALSO RAMP UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL,
WITH SEAS PEAKING AT 4-7FT OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH MARGINAL SOUTHERLY GALES
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH WESTERLY GALES POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS A CROSS THE WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ150>154.
NEAR TERM...PALMER
SHORT TERM...PALMER
LONG TERM...CLAIR
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