965
FXUS61 KGYX 050131
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
831 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY. SOME LIGHT
SNOW IS POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES. A WARMING TREND BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHEAST US MID TO LATE WEEK. A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIP COMES TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
830PM UPDATE...TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING, BUT AT A SLOWER RATE
DUE TO CLOUDS PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE MODERATED TEMPS
THROUGH THE EVENING AS A RESULT, BUT STILL FORESEE A GOOD WINDOW
OF RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE REGION. SKIES SHOULD GO NEAR
COMPLETELY CLEAR OVERNIGHT, AND WINDS WILL GRADUALLY CALM THIS
EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FRESH SNOW, CALM WINDS,
CLEAR SKIES AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR SUBSTANTIAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR
-20F ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. OUTSIDE OF
THIS AREA, LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND -15F IN THE
FOOTHILLS TO NEAR 0F IN MANCHESTER AND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NH.
FOR THIS REASON, I OPTED TO ISSUE COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER OF NH AND WESTERN ME. WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY
TO BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
MONDAY WILL START OFF AS A VERY COLD BUT MOSTLY TRANQUIL DAY,
WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE ABLE TO REBOUND SOMEWHAT QUICKLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS UP
NORTH AND LOWER 20S ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. A CLIPPER MOVES OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY EVENING AND IS EXPECTED TO PUT DOWN
A QUICK INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. HOWEVER, A
COATING IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO BOTTOM OUT TOMORROW NIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH WARMER
NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT THAN TONIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE 0F NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS ALL THE WAY TO UPPER
TEENS IN SOUTHERN NH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
-WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW REMAINS LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. SLIPPERY TRAVEL IS LIKELY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
-THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST TUESDAY, BUT
LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY FOR THE MOST
PART, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO ALSO
SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH
WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS STILL ON TRACK TUESDAY EVENING INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FORTUNATELY IT LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER
THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE. HOWEVER, SLIPPERY TRAVEL IS LOOKING
LIKELY FOR THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE WITH A VARIETY OF PRECIP
TYPES POSSIBLE. THIS IS OWED TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE LOW TREKKING TOWARD NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
INITIALLY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PRECIP AS SNOW TUESDAY EVENING
INTO THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE NIGHT GOES ON AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUBFREEZING WITH CAD IN PLACE, BUT WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND OR
SLEET, ESPECIALLY FROM THE FOOTHILLS SOUTHWARD. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
END WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALTHOUGH SOME IMPACTS TO THE
EVENING COMMUTE ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
OTHER THAN LINGERING UPSLOPE PRECIP WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER
TEMPS...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, AND
POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS A WELL, BUT THAT DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION AND
TRACK OF ANY UPCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM(S). THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL
FOR ANOTHER CHANCE AT WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS EARLY AS FRIDAY OR MORE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW. SOME
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS ARE WARMER WITH MORE A NORTHERLY LOW TRACK WHILE
SOME ARE COLDER AND FARTHER SOUTH OR IN BETWEEN. SO RAIN AND SNOW
AND EVEN A WINTRY MIX ARE POSSIBLE AT THIS POINT. WHATEVER ENDS UP
HAPPENING, THE SYSTEM MAY BE PAST BY SUNDAY TO BRING A DRYING
TREND TO FINISH UP THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS MONDAY AFTERNOON WEST
TO EAST WITH SN. THIS WILL LOWER CEILINGS TO MVFR FOR MOST
TERMINALS SOUTH OF WVL TO BML, WITH MVFR TO IFR VIS FOR THESE
LOCATIONS MON AFTERNOON THROUGH MON EVENING.
LONG TERM...CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE TUESDAY MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS MAY HOLD
ON THROUGH AT LEAST PART OF TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS THEN
BECOME LIKELY TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. SNOW IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TERMINALS COULD SEE ALL
PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH THIS SYSTEM. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVEMENT
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH VFR FOR THURSDAY, EXCEPT
THE USUAL LINGERING RESTRICTIONS AT HIE. ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING
MORE RESTRICTIONS TO THE REGION FRIDAY AND/OR SATURDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES, LIGHT TO MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING, WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 1-3FT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE INCLUDING A WEAK SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING
NEAR THE COAST WILL BRING MOSTLY RAIN TO THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONCE WINDS TURN W-NW
AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE MARITIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES EITHER FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-033.
NH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR NHZ001>006.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150-151.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL/PALMER
SHORT TERM...PALMER
LONG TERM...COMBS
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