774
FXUS61 KGYX 092329
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
729 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
CONVECTION IS INITIATING TO OUR WEST AND WILL MOVE IN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH
GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
2. WEEKEND WEATHER LOOKS SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MOSTLY DRY, EXCEPT
FOR THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWEST
ME ON SATURDAY.
3. MOSTLY DRY TO START NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEFORE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING
MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING PROVIDING THE FORCING FOR SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. ANY SEVERE STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS. THE COLD FRONT ENDS UP
CLOSER TO THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE
HUMIDITY TO LOCATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS DRIER
AIR ALSO SINKS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOSER TO THE FRONT,
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN AND IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, DEW POINTS
REMAIN ELEVATED BUT TEMPERATURES DO COME DOWN SLIGHTLY AS WINDS
SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY. THIS IS GOING TO RESULT IN A CONTINUED
MUGGINESS AS THE UPPER 80S AMBIENT TEMPERATURES FEEL MORE LIKE
LOW 90S. NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS DEWPOINTS SHOULD ALREADY BE
FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WITH AMBIENT TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
NIGHT TO OPEN THE WINDOWS AND FLUSH OUT THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS
LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, AND COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS, LOOKS LOW
FRIDAY AS THE MAIN SOURCE OF FORCING IS GOING TO BE CONTINUING
TO SINK SOUTHWARD, EVENTUALLY EXITING THE AREA. HOWEVER, IT CAN
NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THE 09/12Z HREF SUGGESTS 500-800
J/KG OF CAPE STILL PRESENT ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT WITH AROUND
25-30KTS OF BULK SHEAR. THIS SUGGESTS ORGANIZED STORM
DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5 C/KM IS WHAT
IS MAKING ME THINK COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED. THIS IS REFLECTED
IN THE 12Z CAMS AS THEY SHOW NEXT TO NOTHING DEVELOPING. I
DON'T THINK IT WILL GO QUITE THAT ROUTE, SO I DID KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE COAST. ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE
FUEL TO GROW, AND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WOULD LIKELY SUPPORT STRONG WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM QUEBEC. FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE REGION WITH PRECIP MAINLY CONFINED TO PLACES NEAR
AND AROUND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. BASED ON RECENT HI-RES
MODEL GUIDANCE, I'D GIVE THESE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ON THE LOWER SIDE, BUT MOST MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THESE
SHOWERS WOULD STAY CONFINED TO ROCKINGHAM AND STRAFFORD COUNTIES
IN NH AND YORK COUNTY IN ME. REGARDING THE TEMPERATURES, I
WOULD EXPECT THE MID 80S FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE, WITH BOTH AFTERNOONS FEATURING A SEA
BREEZE, LOWERING TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO STICK AROUND
AT LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. NOTING THIS, HEAT LOOKS TO BE
BUILDING STARTING MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH
HUMIDITY ON THE LOWER SIDE. STARTING TUESDAY, HOWEVER, THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY LOOK TO BUILD, WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK APPROACHING THE LOW TO
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE, WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS
MAKING TEMPERATURES FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 90S AS DEWPOINTS
APPROACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM OUR NORTH, MOVING A
FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA WHICH POTENTIALLY RESULTS IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IN THE COMING DAYS, TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED REGARDING THE TROUGH AND FRONT ON HOW THIS IMPACTS
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL MVFR IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS HOUR. AS A LINE OF STORMS MARCHES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS I
ANTICIPATE SOME MVFR TO WORK INTO AUG AND MAYBE AS FAR EAST AS
RKD. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE
OVERNIGHT. MARINE FOG AND STRATUS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT, BUT AT THIS TIME I ONLY EXPECT THAT TO MOVE INTO RKD
BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING HELPS MIX IT OUT FRI. WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS FRI AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
A LITTLE LESS THAN TODAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE AREA BEHIND A FRONT.
SATURDAY: BRIEF INSTANCES OF MVFR POSSIBLE FROM -SHRA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE NH TERMINALS AND PWM. VFR OTHERWISE.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON THAT MAY BRING MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
WAVE HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY 3-4FT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH MORE IN THE
WAY OF 5FT SEAS AS ONE NEARS THE 25NM MARK. WINDS REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY BEFORE A FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS AND SHIFTS THEM OFFSHORE. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 25KTS. AREAS OF FOG ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE MOISTURE IN THE REGION.
SATURDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND, KEEPING CONDITIONS UNDER SCA LEVELS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE HIGH SHIFT EAST OF THE WATERS. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS THE WATERS AROUND TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012-013.
MARINE...NONE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012-013.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARON/COMBS
AVIATION...LEGRO
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