047
FXUS61 KGYX 151827
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
127 PM EST SAT NOV 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL SLICE ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, BUT FOR A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD. TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY, ALONG THE TRACK A WINTRY MIX INCLUDING
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, AND SOUTH OF THE TRACK MOSTLY RAIN. ONCE
PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT, WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST.
THERE WILL ALSO BE MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON AND OFF THROUGH
MIDWEEK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ALL IS QUIET FOR THE MOMENT...BUT WINTRY WEATHER IS ON THE WAY
TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE DRIVEN BY TWO MAIN FACTORS - WHAT IF ANY
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN AND HOW
QUICKLY CAN WE WET BULB DOWN AS PRECIP STARTS. OF THE TWO
FACTORS I THINK WET BULBING WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER. CURRENT
WET BULB TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 30S ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND
INTERIOR WESTERN MAINE...BUT WITH LACK OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
SOME GRADUAL COOLING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THOSE SHOULD
ONLY TICK DOWNWARD INTO THE EVENING. SO I ANTICIPATE ANOTHER
COLD AIR DAM FORMING IN PLACE AS PRECIP STARTS. IN FACT MODEL
FORECASTS OF FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT SHOW DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT
SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
EVEN NEAR THE COAST ACROSS WESTERN MAINE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
HOUR WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE BEFORE A CHANGEOVER
OCCURS. OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST...VERY LIGHT
ICING EXPANDED SLIGHTLY BASED ON COOLER TEMPS OVER THE
INTERIOR...SO A FEW ZONES WERE ADDED TO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE REAL QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER THE COLD AIR DAM CAN
HOLD OR WHETHER IT ERODES QUICKLY. MODELS WHITTLE IT AWAY FAIRLY
FAST...BUT I HAVE PLAYED THIS GAME BEFORE AND HEDGED WITH
BLENDED 10TH PERCENTILE NBM TEMPS IN THE FAVORED CAD AREAS WITH
THE LATEST NBM OUTSIDE THOSE ZONES.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
BY SUN MORNING MODEL INDICATES THAT THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL
BE TRAVERSING THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
BRING A QUICK END TO THE STEADY PRECIP...BUT A PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE WEST WINDS KICK IN. GIVEN THE
COMPLICATED NATURE OF THE WEATHER GRIDS ALREADY I DO NOT SEE THE
UTILITY IN ADDING DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO MIX AT THIS
TIME...AND PREFER TO LET RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW HANDLE THE
MESSAGING FOR NOW.
THE UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION THRU MIDDAY...AND ONCE THAT
OCCURS COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW WESTERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
AND BECOME GUSTY. UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AND
BREEZY WINDS LIKELY CONTINUE ALL NIGHT OVER LAND.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED NEAR THE BAY OF
FUNDY. WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE REGIME IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS. WHILE
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT WILL LIKELY KEEP AT LEAST SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY
IN THE FORECAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW.
FORECAST FROUDE NUMBERS ARE GREATER THAN 1 IN THE AFTERNOON ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SO SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES/SPRINKLES MAY NOT BE
OUT OF THE QUESTION OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE
MOUNTAINS, TO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE FOOTHILLS, THE
INTERIOR, AND DOWN TO COASTAL AREAS. HIGHS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR
ON TUESDAY, BUT MAYBE JUST A TOUCH WARMER SOUTH AND ALONG THE
COAST.
THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND IT CURRENTLY LOOKS
FAIRLY WEAK AND MAINLY DRY. WHILE NBM PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
CURRENTLY LOW, WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE AT LEAST SOME SHOWERY
ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN NUDGE UP JUST A LITTLE BIT WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING
INTO THE MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
ON THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE WE TRANSITION BACK INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON FRIDAY. THIS MEANS THAT THE SLOW AND
MODEST WARMUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY MAINLY IN THE 30S NORTH, TO THE 40S
ELSEWHERE. A FEW LOWER 50S ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL AREAS. THAT BEING SAID, NBM TEMPERATURE
SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE FRIDAY/SATURDAY INDICATING QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PATTERN EVOLUTION. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION COMES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH. AS OF NOW, IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT QUITE A BIT CAN CHANGE THIS FAR OUT AS
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT DETAILS REMAINS HIGH.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL SOUTH OF THE MTNS TODAY WITH
MVFR CIGS LINGERING IN UPSLOPE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE.
CONDITIONS GO DOWN QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS PRECIP SLICES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE
ANTICIPATED...WITH AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE
LAKES REGION OF NH INTO MOST OF WESTERN MAINE. THAT PERIOD OF
SNOW MAY ONLY BE ABOUT AN HOUR NEAR THE COAST...BUT MAY LAST
SEVERAL HOURS AT AUG. THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF FREEZING RAIN
AT THE TAF SITES IS FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT MOST AT RISK
WOULD BE LEB/HIE TO AUG. OTHERWISE RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS ACROSS
THE SEACOAST INCLUDING PSM. AS PRECIP ENDS SUN WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH WHERE SURFACE
GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME
TAF SITES SOUTH OF THE MTNS WILL BE RETURNING TO VFR
CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
AT HIE.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS WITH MVFR CIGS LIKELY LINGERING NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS,
LIKELY INCLUDING HIE. THESE LOWER CIGS TO THE NORTH COULD LINGER
INTO TUESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY MONDAY. SURFACE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KTS ARE LIKELY FOR ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN GENERALLY PREVAIL UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...OFFSHORE WINDS TODAY WILL GRADUALLY TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
AS THOSE SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME GUSTY...BUT THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL WAIT UNTIL WIND DIRECTION FLIPS AGAIN TO WESTERLY.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL FIRST BE POSSIBLE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE ELIZABETH...BUT HEADING INTO SUN NIGHT GALE
FORCE GUSTS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY FOR ALL THE WATERS OUTSIDE
OF THE BAYS. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
WATERS...WITH SCAS IN THE BAYS.
LONG TERM...WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY
IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. GALE WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. THE CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, SO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING ARE
A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AND MARGINAL. BEYOND MONDAY, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012-013-020-033.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>009.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ154.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...HARGROVE
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