744
FXUS61 KGYX 061904
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
204 PM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS OVER THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DEPARTING MONDAY. AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FEW MORE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS PUSHED NORTH AND EAST
OUT OF THE AREA. DENSE CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED TEMPS TO REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE MUCH OF THE DAY, AND ONLY SOME BREAKS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO JUMP BEFORE HEADING BACK TO THE TEENS FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS.
DESPITE THE TREND TOWARDS MORE SCATTERED SKIES THIS AFTERNOON,
12Z HREF DEPICTS A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING, PERHAPS
FOG, THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY
EXAGGERATED BY ONE OR TWO MEMBERS, BUT A LOT OF NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE DOES CRASH TEMPS TO THE DEWPOINT (INCREASED IN A WEAK
WARM SECTOR) AS THE SUN GOES DOWN. ADDED MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHALLOW GROUND FOG OVER SNOWPACK. DRIER
AIR AND A WIND SHIFT ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT, PERHAPS ENOUGH TO
ERODE THIS SHALLOW FOG. AT THIS TIME OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW FOR WIDESPREAD FOG.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES WITH A QUICK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY
EVENING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO PREDAWN MONDAY
MORNING FOR THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED, MOST FALLING JUST BEFORE THE MONDAY
AM COMMUTE.
DETAILS: A FAIR DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE REMARK. DRY CONDITIONS
BRING TEMPS A LITTLE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 20S
AND MID 30S.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT SYSTEM TO
TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE OPEN WAVE WILL TRACK
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NH SUNDAY NIGHT, FOCUSING MUCH OF ITS
QPF NORTH OF KENNEBUNK, ME TO CLAREMONT, NH.
SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NH LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
STILL LOOKS TO BE A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
COAST, BUT THIS LIKELY CENTERS AROUND WEAK LOW PRES MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF MAINE VS. A GENUINE NORLUN FEATURE. EITHER WAY, IT
COULD PROVIDE AN HOUR OR TWO OF INCREASED SNOW RATES ALONG THE
ME COAST TO PUT DOWN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BEFORE THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. MOST GUIDANCE BEGINS THIS AROUND CASCO BAY
BEFORE LIFTING IT NORTH INTO THE MIDCOAST.
WHILE THE LOW'S TRANSIT HAS SPED UP, THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW FALLING FOR THE MIDCOAST INTO THE LOWER KENNEBEC
VALLEY COME MONDAY MORNING, CREATING SLICK TRAVEL. WINDS BECOME
NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, BECOMING BREEZY TO START THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
PERSISTENT TROUGHING IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED, AS AN
UPPER- LEVEL LOW GYRATES OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR COLDER THAN AVERAGE AIR TO PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST.
PERHAPS THE COLDEST OF THIS AIR WILL ARRIVE ON MONDAY, AS A
PRIOR COLD FRONT BRINGS FRESH NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE BRINGS
BLUSTERY AND A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS INTO THE PICTURE. WINDS WILL
DIE DOWN IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A TEXTBOOK RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO NEAR 0F ACROSS MOST PLACES IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE.
TWO ALBERTA CLIPPERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE, WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT. UP TO A COATING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLIPPER FOLLOWS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE'S FOOTSTEPS, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME AROUND, SNOW DOES APPEAR TO BE MORE
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS, WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE THERE.
THE SYSTEM DOES PULL IN ENOUGH WARM AIR TO KEEP SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
MOSTLY AWAY FROM SOUTHERN NH AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE COASTLINE,
THOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF RAIN AND SNOW MIX CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG
THE POPULATION CORRIDOR.
AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...CEILINGS AND VIS IMPROVE AFTER MORNING/AFTERNOON
SN. SHALLOW GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WHICH COULD LOWER VISIBILITY AT SOME INTERIOR TERMINALS
(WILL BE WATCHING SOUTHERN NH TAF SITES CLOSELY). OTHER THAN
SOME FOG, EXPECT CEILINGS TO BE VFR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS THEN INVADE WITH QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO BRING SN TO REDUCE VIS TO 1 TO 2 MILES
OVERNIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED AT OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z MON
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH OF PSM/CON/LEB LINE.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR MONDAY MORNING, WITH VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW MOVES IN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING FOR RESTRICTIONS TO LOWER. LOWER
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WINDS
SHIFT NW SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PASSES. QUICK MOVING LOW
PRES ENTERS THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING, INCREASING WINDS
TO AROUND 30 KTS. SOME GUSTS TO GALE MAY BE ATTAINABLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS.
LONG TERM...NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY
MONDAY MORNING WITH SEAS OF 4-6FT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
MONDAY EVENING, AND REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS AND SEAS OF 5-8FT
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF BELOW SCA THRESHOLD WINDS AND SEAS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
MORNING.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...PALMER
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