648
FXUS61 KGYX 021020
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
620 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY CREEP UP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WINDS TURN WEST TO SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT.
BEHIND THAT BOUNDARY, HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND ANOTHER STRETCH
OF DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
620 AM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES TO ALIGN THE NEAR TERM WITH
OBSERVATIONS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, BUT NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD. THIS WILL CLEAR OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS MIXING GETS GOING. OTHERWISE, THE GOING
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A CHILLY START TO THE MORNING,
QUICKLY WARMING UNDER CLEAR SKIES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TODAY WITH
THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS DEEPENING OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL TURN
UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTHWESTERLY, INCREASING THE TRANSPORT OF
COOL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT SKIES WILL BE CLEARER
THROUGH THE DAY AND THE FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES
GET A FEW DEGREES WARMER THEN YESTERDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE WE
SEE SOME CUMULUS FORM OFF THE TERRAIN, BUT IT WILL LIKELY STAY
MORE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH CONTINUED DRYING OF
THE AIRMASS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS, AND MORE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S TO THE NORTH.
DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROP INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA, YIELDING RH
VALUES AROUND 35% DURING THE DAY. ANY LOCATIONS THAT HAVE BEEN
MISSING OUT ON APPRECIABLE RAIN MAY BEGIN TO SEE THINGS GET
QUITE DRY AS WE MOVE INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* WILDFIRE SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO NEW
HAMPSHIRE DES AND MAINE DEP FORECAST PRODUCTS REGARDING
POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO AIR QUALITY.
TONIGHT: WELL THE COOL DRY AIR FROM CANADA HAS BEEN WELCOMED
AFTER SOME HOT DAYS, WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BEGIN TO GET
TRANSPORTED INTO OUR REGION AS WELL BEGINNING TONIGHT. BECAUSE
OF THIS, I DON'T ANTICIPATE THE "CLEAR" SKIES TO GIVE WAY TO AS
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AS WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS. IT WILL STILL BE A COOL NIGHT THOUGH, WITH TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S, AND
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S TO THE NORTH. THIS MAY RESULT IN VALLEY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.
SUNDAY: ON SUNDAY THE HRRR SMOKE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT
CONCENTRATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD BE MODERATE. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY EFFICIENT MIXING SO I WOULD EXPECT THAT
IT WOULD BE NOTICEABLE UP THERE, ESPECIALLY TO FOLKS THAT MIGHT
BE RECREATING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR THIS REASON, I HAVE
ADDED SMOKE TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES, WHILE KEEPING HAZE
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS CONCENTRATIONS WILL BE
LOWER AND MORE ELEVATED (IN TERMS OF HEIGHT). SUNDAY WILL ALSO
FEATURE OF A BREEZIER AFTERNOON IN WESTERN MAINE AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND BRIEFLY TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS AROUND 15-20 MPH ARE LIKELY AND WILL TAPER OFF HEADING
INTO THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS STILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY DESPITE IT PROBABLY BEING
MORE OF A FILTERED SUNSHINE. NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE SKIES
WILL BE SMOKEY LIKELY ONLY END UP IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
OVERNIGHT LONG TERM UPDATE...01Z NBM HAS BEEN INCORPORATED INTO
THE GOING LONG TERM FORECAST AND OFFERS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES PEAKING MONDAY. THE ONLY ISSUE IS THAT SMOKE FROM
DISTANT WILDFIRES WILL MAKE FOR MILKY AND HAZY SKIES SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY SLIDES IN FROM THE
NORTH MONDAY AND MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLD OR WIDELY SCT TSTMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THESE MAY ALSO OCCUR ON TUE A BIT FARTHER SOUTH ON A
LIMITED BASIS AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. HOWEVER, MAINLY
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
PREVIOUSLY...
KEY MESSAGE: LARGELY QUIET THRU THE EXTENDED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN CONTROL.
IMPACTS: SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. THERE
MAY BE A WINDOW SUN INTO MON WHERE CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE
MAKES IT INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
FORECAST DETAILS: THE MAJORITY OF THE FOCUS IN THE EXTEND IS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE
REGION. ABUNDANT CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE
COLLECTED BY THIS FRONT AS IT PUSHES SOUTHEAST. THE LONGER
RANGES OF THE RRFS SHOW NEAR SURFACE SMOKE INCREASING IN THE
MTNS SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU SUN INTO MON BEFORE
DISPERSING BEHIND THE FRONT. I HAVE ADDED HAZE TO THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH SMOKE FORECASTS...BUT I
WANTED TO GET AHEAD OF IT ON MESSAGING.
OTHERWISE A SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND ON THE
REGION MIDWEEK. I COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS COOLING SOME FROM
THE CURRENT FORECAST. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S ARE
LIKELY...AND SOME 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST THE NBM GUIDANCE SEEMED
REASONABLE.
AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT, BUT OUTSIDE OF THAT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH
SUNDAY. VISIBILITIES AT NORTHERN TERMINALS MAY SEE MVFR
REDUCTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS OF WILDFIRE
SMOKE ENTER THE AREA. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALSO FEATURE
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KTS MAINLY AT MAINE TERMINALS AND
PSM.
LONG TERM...LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED.
MIDWEEK A LARGELY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY ALLOW FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG AND LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE
CT RIVER VALLEY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WIND GUSTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS. WINDS
SHIFT SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOW PRESSURE
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY INCREASE
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KTS.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. MIDWEEK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE SEA BREEZES ON
MOST DAYS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ027-
028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...BARON
LONG TERM...EKSTER/LEGRO
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