559
FXUS61 KGYX 292352
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
752 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATE TO REFLECT OBSERVED TRENDS IN THE NEAR TERM.
KEY MESSAGES
1.WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE A PUSH INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, WHILE A SERIES OF FRONTS BEGIN TO MAKE SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS BY LATE MONDAY.
2. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FROM TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND, BRINGING MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS, MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FOLLOWING SYSTEM MAY FEATURE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE MODERATING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH TOMORROW AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS WARMER AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE NOTABLY WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS, WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS THE NORTH, TO UPPER 30S
THROUGH THE NEW HAMPSHIRE SEACOAST.
TOMORROW LOOKS TO FEATURE THE MOST WIDESPREAD WARMTH ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE WEEK, WITH NORTHERN AREAS LIKELY SEEING THEIR
WARMEST READINGS OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERN AREAS STAND A BETTER
CHANCE FOR HIGHER TEMPS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. BUT TOMORROW,
HIGHS WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH 50S MORE
COMMON ACROSS THE NORTH. SUNSHINE PEAKS MIDDAY AFTER MORNING
CLOUDS MOVE OFFSHORE, AND BEFORE MORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER, THE COOLER AIR WILL ALREADY BE MAKING SOUTHWARD
PROGRESS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TOMORROW MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE AREA. THEN BY THE AFTERNOON, FIRST A TROUGH AND
THEN A COLD FRONT PRESS INTO NORTHERN AREAS, BRINGING INCREASING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. COOLER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 20S, WHILE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE WARM AIR MASS WITH OVERNIGHT
TEMPS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE FRONT LIKELY STALLS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY, BRINGING INCREASING SHOWERS
CHANCES TOWARD DAYBREAK AS MORE MOISTURE RIDES ALONG THE FRONT
FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MONDAY'S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY, BRINGING A ROUND OF WIDESPREAD OVERRUNNING PRECIP WITH
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT. HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH IS
UNCERTAIN AND WHETHER A COLD AIR DAM SETS UP, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPS FROM SOUTHERN NH TO WESTERN ME, BUT
REGARDLESS, TEMPERATURES DO LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MOSTLY
RAIN, EVEN IF END UP BEING IT'S A COLD RAIN IN SOME AREAS. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING AND SLEET CAN'T BE RULED OUT IF SURFACE TEMPS DO TREND
COLDER. THE COLUMN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO WARM OVERNIGHT, WHICH
WILL END ANY WINTRY PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS IF IT DOES OCCUR.
ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORT 0.50" TO 1.00" OF QPF POSSIBLE FROM THE
FOOTHILLS NORTHWARD AND 0.25" TO 0.50" TO THE SOUTH FROM TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN
THE WARM SECTOR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO THE
EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER AND CENTRAL MAINE, WHICH WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
THE INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD
BRING A WARM DAY FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUTNAINS..WELL INTO
THE 50S AND 60S POSSIBLY LOW 70S IN SOUTHERN NH IF THE FRONT IS A
LITTLE SLOWER. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE OF STORMS (ESP IF THE FRONT IS
SLOWER) ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWEST ME. HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ON
THE FRONT MAY NOT BE GREAT WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THIS FRONT WILL COME INTO PLAY AS IT LOOKS TO STALL OUT NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION GOING INTO LATE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE RIDING ALONG IT. THERE'S A BETTER SIGNAL FOR CAD TO
LOCK IN THE COLDER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS NORTH OF WHEREVER THE
BOUNDARY HANGS UP WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
THERE'S ALSO A STRONG SIGNAL IN THE ENSEMBLES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION (BUT NOT SO MUCH AGREEMENT ON QPF) THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, BUT IF THIS SET UP COMES THROUGH, IT COULD BRING SOME
WINTRY PRECIP INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL. SO WE'LL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THINGS UNFOLD.
FOR THE WEEKEND, SATURDAY MIGHT BE DRY, BUT THERE'S ALREADY GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT WITH LOW TRACKING ACROSS CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES GOING INTO
SUNDAY. THERE ARE A FEW COLDER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, BUT MOST CURRENTLY
FAVOR RAIN AS THE PTYPE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR PREVAILS AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEER OF AROUND 30KT IS LIKELY AT MHT, CON, AND PSM
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AT HIE LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: WIDESPREAD PRECIP, MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF
RAIN, IS LIKELY ALONG WITH FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. RESTRICTIONS
RANGING FROM MVFR TO LIFR POSSIBLE. MIXED PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE AT HIE.
WEDNESDAY: VFR IS POSSIBLE, BUT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND MAYBE EVEN A STORM AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE. THERE'S POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION TO BE A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH TO REACH OTHER TERMINALS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
MARINE
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BRING SCA
CONDITIONS TO THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY EVENING.
SOME MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY-SUNDAY...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SEVERAL PERIODS OF
SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS AS MULTIPLE FRONTS AND LOW
PRESSURES TREK ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST IS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SENDS A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. A PERIOD OF GALES MAY OCCUR
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE LOOK TO RIDE
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE WEEK, WHICH MAY LIFT BACK NORTH OR
STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD
OF IT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/COMBS/SCHROETER
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