603
FXUS61 KGYX 091359
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
959 AM EDT THU MAY 9 2024
SYNOPSIS
SEVERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED DAYS ARE IN STORE AS A WARM FRONT
REMAINS SOUTH OF MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND MOIST ONSHORE
WIND FLOW CONTINUES. ANOTHER SYSTEM FOLLOWS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK, BRINGING MORE SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST. THE UNSETTLED,
SHOWERY PATTERN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO DAYS WILL BE WASHOUTS, JUST COOL AND
CLOUDY WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
955 AM UPDATE...PERFORMED THE USUAL MINOR EDITS TO TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS TO ALIGN WITH OBSERVATIONS. I HAVE ALSO ADDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN MAINE
THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST RADAR IMAGERY AND SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THESE WILL BE LIGHT AND PRODUCE LITTLE IF ANY
ACCUMULATION.
620 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO TO THE GOING FORECAST. DRY, BUT
MOSTLY CLOUDY AN COOL COOL CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE TODAY.
PREVIOUSLY...
AS IS TYPICAL IN MAINE SPRINGTIME IS PERIODS OF CLOUDY, COOL,
AND OCCASIONALLY SHOWERY/DRIZZLY/FOGGY CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
THAT'S THE TYPE OF PATTERN WE ARE IN NOW UNFORTUNATELY. WENT
WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND DEEP ONSHORE OR NORTHERLY FLOW DEPENDING ON LOCATION. THERE
WON'T LIKELY BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL, BUT IT
WON'T EXACTLY BE PRETTY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
SAME PATTERN CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. CLOUDY SKIES WITH
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED DESPITE LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL BE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT
PATCHY FOG TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY WHERE SKIES CAN GO MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A TIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OVERVIEW: MOST WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAIN
OUTSIDE OUR IMMEDIATE AREA, BUT UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PREVAIL
REGARDLESS. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
OPEN ATLANTIC SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE COULD BUILD INTO NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, BUT UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS HOW MUCH DRY AIR THIS MAY BRING. A GREATER CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXISTS ENTERING MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS: PRECIP CONTINUES A FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST TREND INTO
INTERIOR NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY PHASE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC ALONG THE EAST COAST. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
OVER MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE IN THE MID LEVELS FOR CONTINUED
CLOUD COVER IN THE REGION, BUT MEASURABLE PRECIP APPEARS
UNLIKELY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY, AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE WELL OFF THE COAST.
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE AT THE SURFACE HERE, MEANING COOLER AND
DRIER NE FLOW. PESKY MID MOISTURE WILL STILL BE HERE HOWEVER,
AND DIURNAL MIXING MAY PROVE THE OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS
POPPING UP IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH SO MUCH DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE, DOUBTFUL THESE PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE
PRECIP, BUT WILL BE INTERESTING TO FOLLOW CAMS IF THEY DEVELOP
SHOWERS.
GUIDANCE HAS SOME NOTICEABLE DISCREPANCIES OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, MAINLY HOW THE OFFSHORE LOW IS HANDLED. THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS FOR PRECIP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CONSISTENCY
TO BE FOUND AMID THE MAJOR GLOBALS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES HERE.
SOME TROUGHING ON THE BACKSIDE AS THE LOW LIFTS TOWARDS NOVA
SCOTIA COULD BRING MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SHOULD THE LOW KEEP A FLATTER PATH OUT TO SEA, HIGH
PRESSURE COULD EASILY FILL IN OVERHEAD RESULTING IN A DRIER
OUTCOME FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE DOES SEEM TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, ALBEIT A WAYS OUT, FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
IN THE REGION. WENT WITH NBM POPS HERE AS ENSEMBLES SEEM TO
DISPLAY SIMILAR QPF FIELDS AND PRESSURE LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK START BELOW NORMAL, BUT WILL CLIMB
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70 BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR RETURNS TODAY, TONIGHT AND THURSDAY ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE CIGS OF 3500 TO 5000 FT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
THAT MAY PORTEND TO EARLY MORNING FOG TODAY AND ALSO DURING THE
NIGHT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR SEEMS MOST LIKELY, BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE IN
THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THUS, COULD SEE PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AT TIMES AS WELL. VIS RESTRICTIONS DO NOT APPEAR
LIKELY, HOWEVER WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY IN VALLEY LOCATIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS/SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...CURRENT TRENDS KEEP MAJOR PRESSURE SYSTEMS OUTSIDE
OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED WAVE ACTION THIS WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY HOW CLOSE THE LOW MAY PASS TO THE COAST WHICH WOULD
INFLUENCE HEIGHTS. WIND GUSTS REMAIN BELOW 25 KT, OUT OF THE NE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH AROUND 0.5-0.7 FEET OF
STORM SURGE MAY PUSH WATER LEVELS TO AROUND MINOR FLOOD STAGE
AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
MAY BE NECESSARY BUT ANY IMPACTS WILL BE VERY MINOR.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...COMBS/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...CORNWELL
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