251
FXUS61 KGYX 291837
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
237 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
QPF HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD A HAIR WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM, BUT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL BEFORE IT COMES TO AN
END EARLY ON FRIDAY. DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW
STREAM FLOWS, FLOOD RISK IS LOW.
2. A COOLER THAN NORMAL AND SHOWERY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK THOUGH NO DAY LOOKS TO BE A WASHOUT
AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE FUNNELED INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. CAMS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND IF
THEY DO THEY MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE COLUMN CAN
SATURATE BY THEN, THEY MAY JUST END UP BEING A CONTINUATION OF
THE DRIZZLE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE GOING TO BE MODERATED BY
THE CLIMBING DEWPOINTS WHICH ARE ALREADY IN THE 40S, SO
ANTICIPATE A MILDER NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AS WELL.
THE BULK OF THE RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE
OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE REGION BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN
TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THE ONE TO OUR NORTH DRAGS THE COLD
FRONT THROUGH WHILE THE ONE TO THE SOUTH IS GOING TO PROVIDE THE
CONTINUED MOISTURE FEED FOR SOME ENHANCEMENT OF RAIN RATES AS
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. WITH THAT BEING SAID PWATS ARE GENERALLY
ONLY 0.75-1" ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE HIGHER END OF THAT BEING
ALONG THE COAST. THIS MAKES ME THINK THAT, WHILE SOME LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE, THE EVENT LOOKS MORE LIKE A DRAWN OUT
STEADY RAIN. THIS WILL BE GREAT FOR TWO REASONS, IT SHOULD HELP
US MAKE A DENT IN OUR DROUGHT AND ANY RISK OF FLOODING IS LOW
SINCE WE HAVE BEEN DRY AND THE RIVERS STILL HAVE PLENTY OF
STORAGE CAPACITY. QPF HAS TRENDED DOWN EVER SO SLIGHTLY OWING TO
THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT A SOAKING RAIN
IS STILL EXPECTED. THE QPF GRADIENT LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE SPLIT
BETWEEN THE TWO STATES WITH NEW HAMPSHIRE NOT SEEING THE
ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES AND ENDING UP MORE IN THE 0.5-1" RANGE
(NBM PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN AN INCH ARE LARGELY LESS THAN
30%). THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT
AND THEREFORE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS RUNOFF WILL RAISE THE
LEVELS OF SOME OF THE MORE SENSITIVE RIVERS IN THIS AREA, BUT
AGAIN FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. WESTERN MAINE IS MORE LIKELY TO
SEE AMOUNTS IN THE 1-2" AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE THURSDAY AFTERNOON ADDING SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE MIX, BUT NBM PROBABILITIES OF AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ARE
LOW (20-30%). THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST FROM
CASCO BAY NORTHWARD WHERE THERE IS A NARROW BAND OF
PROBABILITIES IN THE 50-60% RANGE, BUT WITH THE "LOW" PWATS WE
ARE PROBABLY ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10TH OR 2 OVER.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT THURSDAY/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOWS MAKE THEIR EXIT, BUT AN UPPER
LOW WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS HANGING AROUND DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE SKIES MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR MORE, TEMPERATURES
REBOUND INTO THE 50S, BUT TO THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE
ABUNDANT TEMPERATURES LIKELY GET STUNTED IN THE 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
TELECONNECTION INDICES SHOW -EPO/-NAO THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK
WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN
NORTH AMERICA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH H5 TROUGH AXIS /AND
ASSOCIATED COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT/ CENTERED OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY WITH MORNING SUN GIVING WAY TO
AFTERNOON SHOWERS. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL TO BELOW 2KFT SO
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME GRAUPEL LIKELY IN
SPOTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TROUGHING BRIEFLY LIFTS ON MONDAY
BEFORE RECHARGING FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
TUESDAY TO PUSH COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGS WITH IT
ANOTHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
THUNDERSTORM GIVEN TIMING AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM BEGINS MAY 1 FOR COASTAL AREAS AND THE
LOWER MERRIMACK VALLEY IN NH. UPPER 30S ARE LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS FOR THE NIGHTS BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO WE/LL HAVE TO WATCH ESP AWAY FROM THE
COASTAL ZONES WHERE SOME PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, NO WIDESPREAD HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...IFR CONTINUES AT COASTAL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z THURSDAY, WITH THE REMAINDER OF TERMINALS
EXPECTED TO COME DOWN TO IFR AROUND 00Z THURSDAY (LEB AND HIE
MAY NOT COME DOWN UNTIL 09Z) WITH FOG AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING
BEFORE THE ONSET OF RAIN. RAIN MAY IMPROVE VISIBILITIES SOME,
BUT LOW CEILINGS ARE GOING TO PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SOME HEAVIER RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THURSDAY AND CONVECTION
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY NIGHT: IFR IMPROVING TO MVFR AS RAIN BEGINS TO COME TO
AN END OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY: MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR AS CEILINGS LIFT AND SCATTER.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:VFR MORNINGS GIVING WAY TO SHOWERS /RAIN WITH
SOME SNOW- GRAUPEL POSSIBLE/ WITH SCATTERED MVFR RESTRICTIONS
THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY AS SWELL CONTINUES TO
BUILD, PEAKING AT 6-9 FT ON THURSDAY, AND THEN WILL BE SLOW TO
FALL BELOW 5FT. WIND GUSTS WILL START TO BECOME A FACTOR AS WELL
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE. THE
COASTAL WATERS OFF CENTRAL MAINE AND PENOBSCOT BAY WILL SEE MORE
FREQUENT EASTERLY GUSTS 25-30 KTS. THE OUTER WATERS (25-60 NM)
FROM STONINGTON TO PORT CLYDE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW GALE FORCE
GUSTS.
RESIDUAL SCAS DUE TO WAVES ARE LIKELY TO OPEN THE PERIOD FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY WITH A BREAK IN WINDS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK LIKELY
BRINGING HEADLINE-FREE CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS RETURNING.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ153.
DISCUSSION...BARON/ARNOTT
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