826
FXUS61 KGYX 111826
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
226 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY
ALLOW FOR PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT IN NORTHERN ZONES.
2. LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVERHEAD TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH MT. WASHINGTON'S
OBSERVED DEWPOINT SITTING AT THE FREEZING MARK EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SOME THE MORE
SHELTERED NORTHERN VALLEY LOCATIONS TO REALIZE THIS AS A LOW
TEMPERATURE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. I DON'T BELIEVE ANY
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED HERE AS ANY OCCURRENCES OF
EITHER SHOULD BE LIMITED IN SCOPE, BUT CERTAINLY ANYONE WITH
SENSITIVE CROPS OR PLANTS THAT LIVE IN THE NORTH SHOULD TAKE
PROTECTIVE MEASURES AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO AT
LEAST THE MID-30S. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY AS WELL. SOUTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL STAY WARMER, BUT NOT BY MUCH AS THE
FOOTHILLS AND BETTER RADIATING LOCATIONS FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S. THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE STAY THE
WARMEST WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY, UPPER RIDGING
TAKES HOLD AND THE RESULTING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP
TEMPERATURES CLIMB A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE SEEING
OUT THERE TODAY. IT WILL BE MORE NOTICEABLE IN THE NORTH AS
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID-70, WITH VALLEY LOCATIONS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS. THE COASTAL
PLAIN WILL END UP PRETTY SIMILAR TO TODAY AS THE SEABREEZE WILL
BE ABLE TO COME ASHORE AND KEEP THOSE AREAS IN THE LOW 70S.
OVERALL, CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR WILL MAKE FOR A PRETTY
QUINTESSENTIAL FALL DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL GIVE WAY TO BROAD
TROUGHING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. EMBEDDED WAVES WITHIN
THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE AREA FOR RAIN
CHANCES WHILE THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN WAVES WILL LIMIT THE
CHANCES FOR CONTINUOUS RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE FIRST PRIMARY WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. THIS WAVE
WILL ADVECT DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING
MEAN PWATS OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES PUSHING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE (MAINLY GEFS
AND CMC) MEMBERS SUGGEST A COMPACT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND WILL FOCUS THE HEAVIEST OF
RAINFALL SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH A SHARP DROP OFF IN QPF TO THE
NORTH. THERE ARE SOME MEMBERS THAT BRING AT LEAST MODERATE
RAINFALL IN TO SOUTHERN NH AND FAR SW MAINE WITH A SHARP CUT OFF
IN QPF NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. THE ECMWF CAMP IS A BIT DIFFERENT IN
THAT SEVERAL MEMBERS DO NOT CLOSE OFF A SURFACE LOW ALLOWING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
REGARDLESS OF THE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS THERE ARE NO FLOOD CONCERNS
WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ON SEEING HOW MUCH RAIN WE CAN GET TO PUT A
DENT INTO ONGOING PRECIPITATION DEFICITS.
THE LATEST NBM BRINGS CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN SUNDAY
MORNING. POPS DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THERE LIKELY WILL BE
A LULL IN PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE CROSSES SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH REGION THAT WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. ALL TOGETHER,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AROUND 0.15 TO 0.35 INCHES WITH
SOUTHERN NH AND YORK COUNTY SEEING POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN
0.5 INCHES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS THAT WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHERN VALLEYS TO DROP INTO THE 30S FOR LOWS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT AT LEB AND
HIE AS VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS UNDER CALM CONDITIONS. ONCE THE FOG
CLEARS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, VFR PREVAILS AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: LOWERING CIGS AND SHRA WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR, WHILE PERIODS VFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT TRENDING TOWARDS
VFR BY MONDAY MORNING.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: VFR EXPECTED, EXCEPT CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY FOG AT LEB AND HIE.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE WINDS
AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTING WINDS OFFSHORE WITH WINDS AND SEAS STILL
REMAINING BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARON/SCHROETER
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