281
FXUS61 KGYX 300245 AAB
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1045 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT
TODAY BRINGING ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA
AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. A WARM FRONT
WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM
FEATURING MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
UPDATE...ANOTHER ADJUSTMENT BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
FURTHER SHARPENING OF THE PRECIP GRADIENT WAS NEEDED FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ALL IN ALL, FORECAST IS MOSTLY ON TRACK
FROM PRIOR THINKING, AS THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO
SHIFT SW TODAY. ULTIMATELY, THE COLD AIR IS MAKING IT FURTHER S
THAN THE FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS AGO, WHICH HAS LED TO SNOW
LINGERING LONGER ACROSS ALL BUT S NH, WHERE TEMPS ARE GENERALLY
A F DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FREEZING. MOSTLY WE HAVE SEEN JUST
LIGHT PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON, ONCE THE INITIAL WAVE WENT BY, BUT
A SECOND EAVE MOVE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT, BRING STEADIER
PRECIP BACK INTO S NH THIS EVENING, WHICH EVENTUALLY LIFTS N
THROUGH NH AND W ME TONIGHT. THE RIDGING THAT HAS MOVED DOWN
FROM THE NE WILL KEEP THE E ZONES MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT, AND
ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WILL LIKELY BE SOME LIGHT SN IN THAT
AREA. TEMPS WILL FALL SOME IN THE E ZONES, WHERE THERE’S SOME
BRIEF CLEARING THIS EVENING, BUT THE FOR THE REST OF THE AREA,
TEMPS MAY DROP OFF A DEGREE OR TWO FROM WHERE THEE ARE NOW,
WHICH IS IMPORTANT IN THIS CASE, BECAUSE IT SHOULD BRING MOST
SPOTS DOWN TO FREEZING OR BELOW OVERNIGHT, WHICH MEANS FREEZING
OR FROZEN PRECIP.
THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS SW NH INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL NH,
WHERE THE WARM AIR ALOFT ARRIVE FIRST AND SWITCH P-TYPE TO FZRA.
IT'S HERE WHERE THE HIGHEST ICE ACCRETION WILL BE ELEVATION
DEPENDENT. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS, THE STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WILL
LIKELY KEEP THE VALLEY FLOOR A TOUCH WARMER THAN THE THE
HILLSIDES AND TOPS. SO, THE MOST EFFICIENT ICE ACCRETION IS
LIKELY SOMEWHERE ABOVE 500 FT, AND WILL PROBABLY CLOSER TO 1000
FT, BUT MAY FLUCTUATE SOMEWHAT, SO ICE BUILD UP IN SW NH WILL
RANGE FROM MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO
AS MUCH A FIVE TO SIX TENTHS OF AN INCH ABOVE ~1000 FT. FURTHER
N AND E, WILL SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SNOW OF SNPL OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH SOME FZRA EXPECTED IN MOST OF NH S OF THE WHITES AND SW
ME BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
ONCE THAT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL SHIFT
INTO THE MTNS DURING THE MORNING, AND IT WILL BE MORE SHOWERY OR
EVEN MAINLY DRY IN THE S TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE CAD WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE DAY, THE S
PRES GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENING, AND THE OVERALL OF THE COLUMN
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING FROM S TO N,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH MAYBE ONLY THE ME
FOOTHILLS AND MTNS HANGING ONTO TO SOME SUB-FREEZING TEMPS BY
EVENING. LATE DAY HIGHS RANGE FROM AROUND 30 IN THE MTNS TO MID
TO UPPER 30S IN THE S.
I THINK LOSING THE DAYLIGHT KEEPS TEMPS STEADY AT LEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING, SO THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE FZRA IN THE MTNS, BUT
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED, AND MOSTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS WEAKENING
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP ENHANCE THE SW FLOW
ON TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LYR, WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS START TO
SLOWLY WARM DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
CLOUDY SKIES START OUT MONDAY WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE MORNING GOES ON. WE'LL
BE SQUARELY IN THE WARM SECTOR BY THIS POINT WITH THE COLD FRONT
STILL OFF TO THE WEST, SO ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WILL BE RAIN, WITH
THE EXCEPTION FOR A BIT OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE JACKMAN AREA
THROUGH MID-MORNING. CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD TEMPS
MAKING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST WITH LOW 60S POSSIBLE IN NH. RAIN
CHANCES RAMP BACK UP LATER IN THE DAY, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE EVENING
AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO
MOVE THROUGH. WHILE THUNDER CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, CHANCES
APPEAR LOW, BUT THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME LOW-LEVEL CAPE TO YIELD A
CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND EMBEDDED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS RAIN
MOVES THROUGH. ENSEMBLES MEAN FROM THE ECMWF SUGGEST MOSTLY 0.25-
0.50" OR RAIN WITH THIS ROUND WHILE THE GFS SUGGESTS MORE IN THE
0.50-0.75" RANGE, POSSIBLY HIGHER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH. RAIN
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
STARTING TO PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO
RESULT IN A BRIEF CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW IN SOME AREAS BEFORE
ENDING.
JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST AND EASTERN AREAS EARLY
TUESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING AS COOL, DRY ADVECTION SETS IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. IN TYPICAL FASHION, MORE CLOUDS AND UPSLOPE
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL PROBABLY LAST IN THE MOUNTAINS LONGER. PARTLY-
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 25-35 MPH AND UP TO 40 MPH ON OCCASION. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 40S, EXCEPT LIMITED TO THE 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS DIMINISH GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN
WITH A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH COULD REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BUT IT
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST LATE IN THE DAY WITH CLOUDS ALSO
INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC THURSDAY,
EVENTUALLY SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY
EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY WITH
THIS SYSTEM WITH STRONG ENSEMBLE SUPPORT, BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THEN WINDING DOWN THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY THURSDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST FOR IT TO BE COLD ENOUGH IN MOST AREAS
TO SUPPORT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT EARLY ON, BUT A GRADUAL WARMING WILL
SWITCH MOST PLACES OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS WARMING OCCURS, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA BEFORE FULLY
SWITCHING TO RAIN. FORTUNATELY, THIS WINDOW LOOKS PRETTY BRIEF AS
THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE.
MORE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LAST INTO FRIDAY IN THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND
THE FRONT, BUT OTHERWISE THE WEEK ENDS ON A DRY NOT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...MOST TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO IFR TONIGHT, AND
PROBABLY LIFR ON THE COAST AND IN SRN NH. KHIE COULD STAY MVFR
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT IN THE DOWNSLOPE, WHILE KRKD COULD
STAY VFR UNTIL LATE AS WELL AS SFC HIGH PROVIDES DRIER AIR
THERE. I THINK EVERYONE DROPS TO IFR OR LOWER SUNDAY MORNING,
AND LIKELY STAYS IFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...THERE MAY BE A LULL IN RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING,
BUT IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO FOG AND LOW
STRATUS. VISIBILITIES PROBABLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY OVER THE
INTERIOR, AND SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE.
RAIN CHANCES PICK BACK UP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH, AND THEN PRECIPITATION
WILL END WEST TO EAST MONDAY NIGHT WITH A RETURN TO VFR FOR
MOST SITES BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. BEFORE, PRECIPITATION ENDS
MONDAY NIGHT, THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SWITCH BACK OVER TO LIGHT
SNOW OR EVEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP.
MOSTLY VFR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT THE USUAL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD
PRODUCE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS AT HIE, MAINLY TUES. THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY, LIKELY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING BOTH
SNOW AND RAIN TO THE AREA, AND POSSIBLY A PERIOD OF SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SEAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT,
AND BOTH WINDS/SEAS STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL START INCREASING FROM THE S TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.
LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW LIKELY INCREASES ABOVE SCA LEVELS
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH A SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES OVER
THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TO NW/N MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT,
AND THESE WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
DAY TUESDAY, POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE, WINDS QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP TO SCA
LEVELS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, AND THIS
COULD AGAIN FEATURE GUSTS TO GALE FORCE. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TOWARD LATE
WEEK...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SYSTEM NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>028-033.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ001>004-
006-009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ005.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR NHZ007-008-011-
015.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR NHZ010-
012>014.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...COMBS
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