829
FXUS61 KGYX 131022
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHOWERS AND
RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND HIGH SURF TODAY AND TUESDAY. THE LOW
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH WELL OUT TO SEA BY A TROUGH/FRONT MIDWEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY
FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
615AM UPDATE...PERIODS OF RAIN HAVE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NH
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHTER SHOWERS INTO ME. NOT MUCH TO TWEAK TO
GOING FORECAST, ALTHOUGH RADAR PRESENTATION DOES EMPHASIZE THE
ON AND OFF PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON WINDS AS DAYTIME ALLOWS FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING.
KEY MESSAGES:
* LARGE WAVES ALONG THE COAST TODAY MAY CAUSE BEACH EROSION AND
BREAK HIGH ON COASTAL OUTCROPPINGS. STAY OFF ROCK OUTCROPS IF
OBSERVING THE SEA TODAY.
* GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST TODAY, WITH GUSTS 30 TO
40 MPH POSSIBLE.
MID-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE WEST TODAY BEFORE
CONSOLIDATING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING. WITH SURFACE
LOW STILL DANCING OVER THE DELMARVA AND CAROLINA COASTS, THIS
STACKING TOWARDS THE END OF THE DAY SHOULD SPELL AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND FOR THIS COASTAL EVENT.
DURING THE DAY TODAY, COOL AND STEADY RAIN CONTINUES FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHERN NH AND FAR SOUTHERN COASTAL ME. SHOWERS WILL PUSH
FURTHER NORTH AT TIMES THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS. HIRES GUIDANCE HAS
HONED IN ON DRY AIR LIMITED SHOWER/RAIN FREQUENCY NORTH OF A
PORTLAND TO FRYEBURG TO WHITEFIELD, NH LINE. THIS IS ESPECIALLY
NOTICEABLE IN HREF MAX QPF GUIDANCE OF ONLY AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH TOWARDS AUGUSTA AND NORTH OF THE WHITES.
FOCUS FOR QPF WILL THEN BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND PORTIONS OF
THE NH SEACOAST AND SOUTHERN ME COAST. HRRR AND FV3 DEPICT SOME
PROCESSES FOR A COASTAL FRONT AIDING IN PRECIP ENHANCEMENT FROM
AROUND PORTLAND SOUTH. FORMATION OF THIS MAY IN TURN WEAKEN
RATES INLAND AS SE FLOW KICKS IN THIS AFTERNOON. VOID OF BETTER
UPPER JET DYNAMICS, THESE MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS ARE WHAT WILL
DRIVE HIGHER QPF OUTSIDE OF PERSISTENCE.
IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE NH SEACOAST AND SOUTHERN ME COAST. A FEW
GUSTS TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NH AND FAR SOUTHERN ME.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* HIGH SURF CONTINUES OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY.
INTERIOR SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY SCATTERED OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE TOWARDS THE COAST
AND INLAND FOR THIS PERIOD.
WITH WEAKENING LLJ, RATES FALL OFF FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME. SOME WEAK FORCING PASSING TUESDAY COULD SPARK A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTERIOR, BUT OTHERWISE
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
IT WILL BE LESS BREEZY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS WE
REMAIN IN MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION WED/THURS, BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW UPSLOPE
RAIN SHOWERS (SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS).
WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING BREEZY AND COOL WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 40S NORTH, TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BECOME FAIRLY CHILLY WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN
COLDER WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. THURSDAY WILL BE BLUSTERY DURING THE DAY
AND LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S AND NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE.
RIDGING THEN STARTS TO NUDGE IN FOR THE WEEKEND BUT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A WAVE OR TWO MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. FOR NOW THE PATTERN
LOOKS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN AFTER MIDWEEK BUT A GRADUAL WARMUP IS FAVORED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND. LOOKING BEYOND, SIGNALS
PERSIST OF A POTENTIAL RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN AT THE START OF
THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...TERMINALS NORTH OF THE WHITE MTNS AND PWM REMAIN
VFR WITH HIGH OVERCAST AND SOME LIGHT SHRA INTO THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS SEE THE BRUNT OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
STEADY RA. VIS HAS NOT BEEN TOO LIMITED, BUT PERIODS OF 5-3SM
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT LLWS POSSIBLE, BUT LLT IS MORE LIKELY AS NE SURFACE GUSTS
PUSH 20-25KT AT MOST LOCATIONS. TREND TOWARDS VFR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, BUT SOME VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BECOME
FAIRLY BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH NORTH NORTHWEST GUSTING IN
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE DAY WITH
NEARSHORE WAVES GENERALLY 5 TO 10 FT. THESE HANG ON THROUGH
TONIGHT, BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LESSEN ON TUESDAY. GALE CONDITIONS
TODAY WILL TEND TO SLACKEN LATE TONIGHT. GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE
WATERS REMAIN 25 TO 30 KT INTO EARLY TUES MORNING, BUT BECOME
LESS THAN 20KT AS WINDS SHIFT NORTH THEN NW TUES AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...SEAS LOWER TO 4-7FT BY TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLIES ON WEDNESDAY AND STRENGTHEN TO SCA LEVELS BY
THURSDAY MORNING AND MAY STAY AT SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. 4-6FT SEAS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
STEADY EASTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD WATER ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
EARLY WEEK, COINCIDING WITH HIGH SURF AND ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
AROUND 10 TO 10.5 FT (AT CASM1). THE RESULT MAY BRING
SPLASHOVER SURROUNDING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ023>027.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ152-154.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...HARGROVE
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