211
FXUS61 KGYX 060636
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
236 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SPREADS OVERHEAD TODAY AND
TONIGHT. FROST IS LIKELY. WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A COOL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY SKIES BUT
CONTINUED BREEZY WEATHER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WIND GUSTS
OF 20 TO 30 MPH TODAY, BUT THE TREND SHOULD BE DOWNWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES. HIGHS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY, WITH 50S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT ALONG WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
SUPPORT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY,
EVEN TOWARD THE COAST. THEREFORE, WE HAVE HOISTED A FROST
ADVISORY FOR THE ZONES THAT REMAIN ACTIVE THIS SEASON (THE
SEASON ENDS OCT 11). THE EXCEPTION IS FOR THE NH SEACOAST WHERE
TEMPERATURES MAY STAY UP A LITTLE BIT MORE. SOME AREAS IN THE
FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING
TODAY.
OTHERWISE, A WARMING TREND BEGINS WED AND PEAKS THU. HIGHS BY
THU SHOULD BE WELL INTO THE 60S, WITH 70S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. A
COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS.
THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY, BUT CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS GOING TO PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR
UPSLOPE SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 0 TO +3 C RANGE WILL ALLOW FOR SEASONABLE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S EACH DAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY, AND WITH CONTINUED
RIDGING ALOFT, DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP
AROUND +10 C SO SUNDAYS HIGHS LIKELY MIX INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE.
SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IS THEN INTRODUCED HEADING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A TROUGH SWINGING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND GENERATING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC, BUT AT DIFFERENT TIMES AND INTENSITIES. THE 19Z
NBM SUGGESTS THIS WOULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION WITH AROUND 50% PROBABILITIES AREAWIDE OF GREATER
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE MONDAY-TUESDAY
WINDOW. THIS WILL BE A PERIOD TO WATCH TO SEE HOW MODELS TREND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
RESTRICTIONS: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS: NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20G25-30KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DAY
TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY: GENERALLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE, MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
SCAS NEEDED ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE WEST WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS. A FEW NW GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN WATERS TUESDAY MORNING.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ019>028.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ010-012-013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...BARON/EKSTER
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