211
FXUS61 KGYX 281111 AAA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
611 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. MUCH OF THE AREA STAYED CLEAR OVERNIGHT
LEADING TO SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING, BUT DESPITE A BIT OF A
COLDER START TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RISE
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH WIDESPREAD 40S FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALSO
OF NOTE, ONSHORE FLOW HAS LED TO SOME LOWER CLOUDS THIS MORNING
AND ISOLATED PATCHY FOG, BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE AND MIX THEM OUT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMER TEMPERATURES IN STORE TODAY, FOLLOWED BY COLDER
WEATHER AND A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY.
2. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO 12Z
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL COME WITH LITTLE FANFARE OTHER THAN
SOME CLOUDS, PARTICULARLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH A LITTLE
BIT OF FOG ELSEWHERE. THE END RESULT WILL BE WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S, POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 50 DEGREES IN THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY OF NH. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SHOWERY WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NH. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SOUTHERLY GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH.
MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AT THE SAME TIME A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL TRAVERSE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT WILL BE PRESENT TO AID IN A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WHICH
SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MORE THAN TWO INCHES AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
EARLY IN THE WEEK. IT LEAVES BEHIND A COLD AIR MASS AS LOW
PRESSURE RIDES EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. MODELS CONTINUE TO
BRING MOISTURE INTO NEW ENGLAND WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE
REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE REACHES INTO NEW
ENGLAND, AND WHERE DIFFERENT PRECIP TYPES WILL FALL.
WARM AIR WILL TRY TO MAKE A NORTHWARD PUSH WITH THE SYSTEM, BUT
WILL HAVE THE COLD AIRMASS STUBBORNLY IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT.
THIS IT LIKELY TO LEAD TO SNOW NORTH, RAIN SOUTH, AND A WINTRY
MIX IN BETWEEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DIFFERENT FROM THE ALL SNOW
SYSTEMS WE'VE BECOME ACCUSTOMED TO LATELY, AND MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON WHERE THESE DIFFERENT PRECIP TYPES WILL SET UP.
TRENDS FROM PAST SYSTEMS THIS WINTER WOULD HINT AT THE COLDER
AIR WINNING OUT MORE, BUT THIS WOULD ALSO COME WITH A NORTHERN
EDGE INTO OUR FORECAST AREA SHOULD MOST OF THE PRECIP THAT DOES
FALL FALL AS SNOW. SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE SYSTEM.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK,
AND WOULD LIKELY HAVE EVEN MORE WARM AIR TO WORK WITH. HOWEVER,
WE'LL APPROACH THESE SYSTEMS ONE AT TIME FOR NOW.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY... AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY BRING
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE MTNS TODAY. LOCAL MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT HIE. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY: A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WITH A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW WHICH MANY BRING CIGS AND
VSBYS DOWN TO IFR FOR A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIODS OF TIME.
SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE BY LATE
TUESDAY WITH THE CHANCE OF SN REDUCING VISIBILITY.
WEDNESDAY: IFR AND MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY: SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS, BUT
MVFR STILL POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY: MORE IFR POSSIBLE WITH SNOW AND MIXED
PRECIP.
MARINE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WARM ADVECTION OVER COLD OCEAN WATERS
WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX DOWN THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS, BUT A PERIOD
OF SCA GUSTS IS EXPECTED TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SCA CONDITIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY, WITH LOW PRESSURE RIDING EAST ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. SCA TO LOW END GALES ARE POSSIBLE
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THEN
CROSSES ON THURSDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ151-
153.
DISCUSSION...BARON/CLAIR/EKSTER
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