102
FXUS61 KGYX 141845
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
245 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. GUSTY WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND DOMINATES THE PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE THE
COLDEST NIGHT SINCE LAST SPRING WITH FROST ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
ACROSS THE NORTH.
2. A FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF RAIN THURSDAY, WITH RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND AMID COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MIGRATE
EAST THIS EVENING AND CREST OVER THE AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT
SOFTENS AND WILL LIKELY GO CALM OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL OPTIMIZE RADIATIONAL COOLING
LEADING TO LOWS IN THE MID TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE NORTH TO LOWS
IN THE LOW 40S NEAR THE COAST AND SOUTHERN NH. FROST ADVISORIES
REMAIN UNCHANGED SINCE THE LAST FORECAST WITH LOCALIZED PATCHY
FROST ELSEWHERE IN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SPOTS. VALLEY
FOG WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A COOL AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE LIMITING HIGHS
TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S TUESDAY. STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WILL ATTEMPT TO PUSH NORTHWARD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S AND HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PUSHING
WELL INTO THE 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
IN THE WAKE OF BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW EXITING NORTHERN QUEBEC
WEDNESDAY, A WIDE UPPER JET DEVELOPS THROUGH CENTRAL ONTARIO.
THIS STRONG ZONAL FLOW NORTH OF RECORD MAX 500MB HEIGHTS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR A LOT OF
THE MOMENTUM ENTERING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND MID TO LATE WEEK.
THE UPPER FLOW PREVENTS A LOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE FROM ADVANCING
NORTH, BUT THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE RAPIDLY EXITING THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY THAT COULD MAKE USE OF SOME OF THIS
MORE HUMID AIRMASS. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE INTRODUCES THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS A PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE ARE MANY OUTCOMES RELATING TO
FOOTPRINT AND RAINFALL TOTALS. WHILE PWATS CLIMB, THERE IS SOME
HESITANCY TO CLAIM THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT THIS TIME.
THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO HOW PROGRESSIVE THE IVT PLUME IS AND THE
LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CAPE FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT. FOR NOW
IT'S LIKELY IT WILL EITHER BE A PERIOD OF RAIN PASSING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, OR SOME MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT, NW WINDS BECOME UNIDIRECTIONAL
FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE MORE BREEZY, BUT TEMPS MAY NOT SWAY TOO
MUCH COOLER THAN THURSDAY AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS
STEADFAST TO THE SOUTH, AND DRY AIR SHOULD PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE LIKELY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE ROUNDS THE TOP OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS, AS WELL AS
RAINFALL CHANCES.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... GUSTY NW WINDS DIMINISH BY 00Z THIS
EVENING AND WILL GO CALM OVERNIGHT. VALLEY FOG AT LEB, HIE, AND
CON LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF LIFR LATE TONIGHT UNTIL 12-14Z
TUESDAY MORNING. VFR PREVAILS TUESDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. VALLEY
FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. OTHERWISE VFR TUESDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR, NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SHRA POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: VFR, NO SIG WX. BREEZY NW WINDS UP TO 15 KTS.
MARINE
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING. WINDS
AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WINDS NW
AFTER ITS PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT, REMAINING BREEZY FRIDAY. WINDS
SHIFT TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE THIS WEEKEND, WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KTS. SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
OUTER WATERS, BUT THESE MAY REMAIN OFF THE SURFACE DUE TO AN
INVERSION.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ007.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/SCHROETER
AVIATION...SCHROETER
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