346
FXUS61 KGYX 101828
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
228 PM EDT WED JUN 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AS HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER SETTLES IN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN MODEL TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. INCREASING HUMIDITY IS GOING TO POSE AT LEAST A MODERATE
HEAT RISK IN MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
RISK DUE TO THE ELEVATED MOISTURE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS
EVENING AND THURSDAY.
3. OTHER THAN A MOSTLY DRY SUNDAY, DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS
RETURN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES
TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL, PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DEWPOINTS ARE GOING TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE A HEAT RISK AS TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANY MAJOR HEAT RISK
(APPARENT TEMPERATURES >= 95F) CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WOULD
BE ISOLATED TO THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE CONFINED TO THE VALLEYS. MUCH OF
THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD EXPECT AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK AS
APPARENT TEMPERATURES NEAR 90F. MODEL SPREAD HAS DECREASED
YESTERDAY IN REGARDS TO AMBIENT TEMPERATURES MEANING THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT ON ALL THIS. IF YOU DONT LIKE THE HEAT YOU'LL
WANT TO PLAN A TRIP TO THE MOUNTAINS OR THE COAST. SOUTHEASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS GOING TO RAMP UP WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE ON THE COOLER SIDE, AND BY FRIDAY MUCH
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN COULD SEE SOME RELIEF (IN THE FORM OF
TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 70S) AS A RESULT OF THIS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR RELIEF (SEE KEY MESSAGE DISCUSSION 3 FOR MORE
DETAILS ON THAT).
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MID AND LOW LEVEL FLOW HAVE INCREASED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS SINCE
YESTERDAY, NOW SHOWING MORE IN THE WAY OF 15-20 KTS, HOWEVER
WITH PWATS ALSO INCREASING THIS DOES NOT CHANGE THE RISK FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. ANY OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THAT FORM OUT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING LOOK MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN REGARDS TO COVERAGE.
THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETER SPACE ISN'T ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE, BUT A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION AS A LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES COULD SUPPORT DOWNBURST WINDS. THE PRIMARY RISK
REMAINS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WITH THE SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM
FRONT, COINCIDING WITH THE MOISTURE SLUG, THAT COME IN LATER.
THE 12Z CAMS HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON LATER TIMING OF THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS (AROUND 8 PM), SO WHILE
THUNDER IS A POSSIBILITY IT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED AND ELEVATED.
THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD WITH PWATS EXPECTED
TO BE NEARING 2 INCHES AS IT DOES. LOCALIZED PROBABILITY MATCH
MEAN FROM THE HREF IS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OF
QPF CENTERED OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS, WITH EMBEDDED BULLSEYES
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. THIS INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING COULD BE AN ISSUE HERE AND WPC HAS MAINTAINED IT'S
MARGINAL RISK. THEY HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE
REST OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTO WESTERN MAINE. I LIKE TO USE THE
HREF MAX VALUES AS A PROXY FOR WHERE THE CEILING IS, AND THERE
ARE AREAS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH BULLSYES OF 4 INCHES OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS. THIS IS APPROACHING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
HERE, BUT AS OF NOW I WOULD SAY THE HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR ANY
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS IN AND AROUND THE TERRAIN.
DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY AGAIN THURSDAY WITH ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS, BUT THE LATEST CAMS SUGGEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS GOING TO BE MUCH LOWER AND IN THE AREAS WITH HIGHER
FLASH FLOOD TOLERANCE. THE RISK IS NON-ZERO WITH PWATS STILL 1.5
TO NEAR 2 INCHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THE LESSER COVERAGE
AND INCREASING FLOW ALOFT REDUCES IT GREATLY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE CENTERED WEST OF NEW ENGLAND
FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL BE IN
PLACE, WHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE
WILL SEND COOL, STABLE AIR INTO MAINE. THE COMBINATION OF
RIDGING ALOFT AND STABLE AIR INVADING FROM THE EAST IS MAKING
FOR A TRICKY CONVECTION FORECAST FRIDAY. CAMS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT AN AXIS OF CAPE >1500 J/KG WILL EXIST ACROSS NH
INTO FAR WESTERN MAINE WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND SOURCE OF LIFT IS MORE VARIABLE. THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ALONG WITH THE BEST SHEAR
WILL ARRIVE WELL PAST PEAK HEATING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A
SIGNAL FOR STORMS TO FORM ALONG AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR WESTERN MAINE WHILE CAMS
ARE QUITE BEARISH ON COVERAGE. SPC MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NH AND FAR WESTERN MAINE WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL BUOYANCY AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING THE BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WHILE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DIMINISHING. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING
USHERING IN DRIER AIRMASS ALLOWING DEWPOINTS TO FALL BACK INTO
THE 50S. IT WILL REMAIN WARM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
80S TO LOW 90S IN SOUTHERN NH.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS SUNDAY EVENING AND WILL
HAVE BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A TROUGH AXIS SWING ACROSS
NORTHERN MAINE. WHILE THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS HUMID AS
FRIDAY'S THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY FOR STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S MONDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE 70S ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY CONDITIONS LIKELY BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AS A LARGER AREA OF SHOWERS ENTER THE AREA WHICH MAY
ALSO INCLUDE THUNDER. THIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WITH GENERALLY
MVFR CONDITIONS AND TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVIER RAIN. IFR
THAN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS AS FOG
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF SHOWERS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY 12Z THURSDAY AT MOST TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE, BUT THERE REMAINS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD BRING ABOUT TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: PATCHY FOG THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS ALONG WITH LOW CIGS NEAR THE COAST.
GENERALLY VFR FRIDAY WITH TEMPO RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS NH.
FRIDAY NIGHT: RESTRICTIONS ARE MORE LIKELY IN SHOWERS, LOW
CIGS, AND PATCHY FOG.
SATURDAY: CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR LIKELY, BUT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: VFR TO START SUNDAY. A FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATE SUNDAY AND POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS MONDAY.
MARINE
GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
THE VICINITY OF THE GULF OF MAINE. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WHILE WINDS AND
SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
SUNDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS
APPROACHING 20 KTS AND SEAS APPROACHING 4 FEET AROUND THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARON/SCHROETER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page