604
FXUS61 KGYX 290707
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
307 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES TODAY AS A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WITH IT. FRIDAY LOOKS
TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BETWEEN SYSTEMS, BUT UNFORTUNATELY IT ALSO
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER WEEKEND RAIN EVENT, AS A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. COOLER
WEATHER WILL LINGER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL WARM UP
BEGINS AGAIN.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
LATEST RAP 13 ANALYSIS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NEW JERSEY WITH A PRECIP
SHIELD JUST STARTING TO GET LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AT THIS HOUR. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD, BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THIS LOW TAKING A
TRACK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SO I HAVE REDUCED POPS QUITE
A BIT IN SOUTHERN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MAJORITY OF OUR WEATHER TODAY WILL BE FROM LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AS IT WILL STREAM CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE REGION AS IT MOVES EASTWARD.
WITH THE WAY THIS ONE IS TRACKING I ANTICIPATE SHOWERS TO BE HIT
OR MISS IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF HITS IN
INLAND LOCATIONS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH FORCING
INCREASING AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY AND
COULD INCLUDE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. HIGH TEMPERATURES, WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH THE MIDCOAST AND KENNEBEC VALLEY
STANDING THE BEST CHANCE OF REACHING THE LOW 70S AS THEY WILL
SEE THE LEAST IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS. THE IMMEDIATE COAST WILL
STAY A FEW DEGREES COOLER THANKS TO A SEABREEZE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED
TONIGHT: LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT
WITH A SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THE NIGHT AND THEN COVERAGE WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON
AND LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE GULF. FORCING WILL BE DECREASING
DURING THIS PERIOD SO SHOWERS SHOULD GENERALLY BE LIGHT. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT WILL
SLOW COOLING, AND TEMPERATURES LIKELY ONLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOW 50S. SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR TOWARD DAYBREAK WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY FOG FORMATION, WITH DENSER FOG MORE LIKELY ALONG THE
MAINE COAST AND ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE GETS ADVECTED
ONSHORE.
FRIDAY: MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER FOR FRIDAY AS WELL WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BREAKING UP THE OVERCAST, BUT THIS IS WHEN WE
WILL SEE BETTER FORCING BEGIN TO APPROACH THE AREA AS THE
SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES APPROACHING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH. WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES, I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE SOMETHING SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIT
OR MISS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS, WITH THE CAVEAT BEING THAT
BETTER FORCING MOVING INTO THE REGION, A MOISTENING COLUMN, AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES LIKELY LEAD TO THEM HAVING A MORE CONVECTIVE
NATURE AND CONTAINING BRIEF DOWNPOURS. MY APPROACH WITH POPS
HERE WAS TO KEEP THEM LOW TO EMPHASIZE THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE SHOWERS, AND ALSO KEPT THEM MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR AS A
SEABREEZE WILL KEEP THE COASTAL PLAIN MORE STABLE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH BREEZY WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
1055 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NOTED IN THE LATEST NBM WITH
STRONG SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN A CLOSING UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY WHILE THE TRENDS WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLES FAVOR BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER
THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK THAT WILL PROMOTE
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND RISING TEMPERATURES.
PREVIOUSLY...
KEY MESSAGE: ANOTHER WEEKEND...ANOTHER RAIN EVENT. A WIDESPREAD
SOAKER IS EXPECTED SAT AND COOL START TO NEXT WEEK BEFORE A GRADUAL
WARM UP.
IMPACTS: STORM ON SAT LOOKS PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO AVOID BIG QPF AND
FLOODING THREAT, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SNOW IN THE HIGH PEAKS AS THE
TROF SWINGS THRU THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST DETAILS: ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE NOW HAS QUITE A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SAT. THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS ON
TIMING OF PRECIP...DURING THE DAY SAT. IN ADDITION THERE IS A
GOOD SIGNAL FOR A NEAR 3 SIGMA LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THE
REGION. SUCH A STRONGLY FORCED LOW PRESSURE THIS TIME OF YEAR
WILL NO DOUBT SPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK. WITH POP ALREADY AT CATEGORICAL I DID
NOT SEE MUCH REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE NBM FORECAST.
A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM. WITH
SUPPORT FOR COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS SAT NIGHT AND SUN NIGHT. WITH
THE CURRENT FORECAST AROUND 40 DEGREES WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR
SOME 30S IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS SUN NIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMER.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...CLOUD DECKS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS SHOWERS TO THE REGION, BUT MOST TERMINALS WILL
ONLY FALL TO MVFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. COASTAL TERMINALS
AND AUG MAY SEE CEILINGS FALL TO IFR CONDITIONS AS LOW STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR WILL PREVAIL ON
FRIDAY AS WE SEE ANOTHER DAY WITH SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA. MVFR WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS CEILINGS
THICKER AND LOWER HEADING TOWARD THE EVENING.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS DETERIORATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS RAIN
MOVES IN. WIDESPREAD IFR IS LIKELY. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
IS EXPECTED BY SUN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THE LATTER
HALF OF FRI IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. SCA CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE BAYS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY
THRU SAT. DEPENDING ON TRACK AND STRENGTH I CANNOT RULE ON A
LOW CHANCE OF SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS ON THE OUTER WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...BARON
LONG TERM...LEGRO/SCHROETER
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