450
FXUS61 KGYX 091805
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
105 PM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE MIDCOAST REGION OF
MAINE HAVE TRENDED UPWARD.
. A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK HAS ENTERED THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST WINDOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY, BUT LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDCOAST. THIS IS LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
TAIL END OF THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE, BUT MAY ALSO LINGER
THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
2. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
3. WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LARGER STORM SYSTEM LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AS THE TUE/WED SNOW EVENTS GETS NEARER IN TIME GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE NWP CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE ROBUST LIFT THRU THE MID
LEVELS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. EXAMINING BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS I WOULD STILL LIKE TO SEE A BETTER ALIGNMENT OF
STRONGEST LIFT RIGHT IN THE HEART OF THE SNOW GROWTH ZONE,
CURRENTLY IT IS SHIFTED HIGHER. BUT THERE IS ENOUGH OVERLAP
THERE THAT I BELIEVE SOME MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. THE REAL QUESTION THEN BECOMES THE DURATION. AT LEAST
FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
DRYING/DRY SLOT KNIFES THRU AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IS MAINLY TRUE
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH, WHICH IS WHERE TOTALS ARE LESS THAN THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE IS MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE UPPER TROF CATCHING UP TO THE LOW LEVELS AND PROLONGING
SNOWFALL INTO WED MORNING. THIS IS MORE TRUE ACROSS WESTERN
MAINE, AND ESPECIALLY THE MIDCOAST, BUT IT COULD IMPACT ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA DEPENDING ON TRACK.
SNOW RATIOS LOOK FAIRLY TYPICAL, BUT NBM QPF WAS QUITE HIGH. THIS
MAY BE MAINLY DUE TO THE HI-RES GUIDANCE BECOMING THE DOMINANT PART
OF THE BLEND AND THEIR TYPICALLY AGGRESSIVE QPF JUMPING THE MEAN UP.
SO I LOPPED ABOUT 20 TO 25 PERCENT QPF OFF THE FORECAST FOR TOTALS.
THIS ENDS UP BEING A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 2 TO 4 FOR SOUTHWESTERN NH. WPC
SNOWBAND TRACKING TOOL DOES SHOW THE HREF AND HRRR WITH 0.05 INCHES
QPF SLICING THRU A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE EVENING.
GIVEN CLIMO SNOW RATIO VALUES THAT IS 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR.
LUCKILY MOST OF THIS OCCURS OVERNIGHT, BUT MAY BE SNEAKING INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE EVENING COMMUTE FOR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES AROUND HOW
ORGANIZED AND STEADY THE SNOW IS AS PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED
WITHIN AN INVERTED TROF WED. THAT COULD ADD TO TOTALS FOR PARTS OF
THE MIDCOAST OR ADJACENT AREAS AND PUSH TOTALS ABOVE WARNING
CRITERIA.
FOR HEADLINES MY PRIMARY CONCERN WAS THAT THE AREA WHERE A WATCH
WOULD MAKE SENSE IS RELATIVELY SMALL, BUT SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD
AND LIKELY OVER 2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO I DID NOT
WANT TO ISSUE A WATCH NOW FOR A SMALL REGION WHEN I COULD MESSAGE
ACCUMULATING SNOW EVERYWHERE WITH AN ADVISORY NOW, AND IF WE NEED TO
UPGRADE LATER TO WARNINGS FOR A FEW ZONES THERE IS STILL ENOUGH TIME
TO DO THAT. SO THERE IS A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT, SPLIT
INTO THREE SEGMENTS. ONE FOR EARLIER TIMING AND SUB-ADVISORY BUT
TRAVEL IMPACTS FOR SOUTHWESTERN NH, ANOTHER FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR 3 TO 5 INCHES, AND THEN A THIRD FOR THE MIDCOAST WHERE
TOTALS WILL BE MORE LIKE 4 TO POTENTIALLY 7 INCHES. THE END TIME IS
MORE UNCERTAIN BUT I LEFT A WIDE GOALPOST THERE TO CAPTURE ANY
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE INVERTED TROF.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE
SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY. THIS BRINGS WITH IT A NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THIS FLOW WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGINS,
RATHER THAN THE ARCTIC REGION LIKE WE HAVE SEEN FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL WEEKS. WITH THIS PACIFIC ORIGIN AIR ADVECTING IN FROM
CANADA, HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK FAIRLY SEASONABLE FROM THE MID
20S ACROSS THE NORTH, TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AT
NIGHT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS EACH
NIGHT. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DISCUSSION...
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD A POTENTIAL SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WHILE STILL A WAYS AWAY, MODELS HAVE BEEN BACK AND WORTH
OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS ABOUT WHETHER THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK FAR
ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BRING IMPACTS TO THE REGION, OR IF IT
WILL REMAIN WEAKER AND MORE TO THE SOUTH. BEING A WEEK AWAY,
IT'S STILL FAR TOO EARLY TO SAY, BUT WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
ANY TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEK. THE SYSTEM WOULD
ORIGINATE IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, HAVING ACCESS TO PLENTY OF
GULF OF AMERICA AND EAST COAST MOISTURE. SO THE MAIN QUESTIONS
WE'LL BE WORKING TO ANSWER THIS WILL BE HOW ORGANIZED THE SYSTEM
BECOMES, AND HOW FAR NORTH IT TRACKS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU MIDDAY TUE. THEN SNOW MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST AND CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR AND LOWER. THIS WILL
AFFECT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY NIGHT: WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THRU THE NIGHT IN
SNOW.
WEDNESDAY: IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BECOMING MORE LOCALIZED AND SHOWERY IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCE TO LINGER THRU THE DAY FROM PWM TO RKD.
WEDNESDAY-WED. NIGHT: IFR IN SNOW IMPROVES TO VFR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT
MOST TERMINALS. MVFR MAY LINGER AT HIE IN UPSLOPE FLOW.
THURSDAY: VFR PREVAILS, WITH ANY MVFR AT HIE IMPROVING.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY AM: VFR PREVAILS.
SUNDAY - MONDAY: RESTRICTIONS AND SNOW POSSIBLE.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU WED. LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY LINGERS THRU TONIGHT BEFORE TEMPS WARM UP.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ007-008-012>014-018>028-033.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TUESDAY TO 4 PM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ001>004-006-010.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM TUESDAY TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ005-007>009-011>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-
153.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/LEGRO
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