153
FXUS61 KGYX 262324
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
724 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLOWED THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF HIGH POPS THIS EVENING BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE, NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST THIS SAT EVE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AND EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND A HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS. SPLASH-OVER AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
FOR SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.
2. THIS NOR'EASTER WILL ALSO LEAD TO AREAS OF WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL
RAIN SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
AT LEAST MONDAY ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
3. AFTER THE NOR'EASTER MOVES AWAY ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS LOOK
TO TURN WARMER AND DRIER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A NOR'EASTER CENTERED 185 MILES EAST OF DELMARVA WILL DRIFT NNE
TOWARDS 40N/70W BENCHMARK THROUGH THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE A DECISION TURN
WESTWARD TOWARDS LONG ISLAND AND NEW JERSEY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE
NOR'EASTER WILL BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED AND START TO FILL SUNDAY
NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
TUESDAY.
THE MAIN TAKE AWAY FROM RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND FORECAST TRENDS HAS
BEEN A DECREASE IN STORM SURGE. THIS IS PRIMARILY A RESULT OF
THE SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE STORM TRACK. STORM SURGE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN AND HAVE INCORPORATED THIS INTO THE LATEST FORECAST
WITH SURGE HOLDING AROUND 1.0 FT, PEAKING BELOW 1.5 FT. WHILE
TOTAL WATER LEVEL FORECASTS COME UP JUST SHORT OF MINOR FLOOD
STAGE, HAVE LEFT THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNCHANGED. LARGE
NEAR SHORE WAVES WILL BRING AMPLE SPLASH OVER THAT WILL BRING
DEBRIS ONTO VULNERABLE COASTAL ROADWAYS THROUGH AT LEAST THE
NEXT THREE HIGH TIDE CYCLES. IN ADDITION, DUNE EROSION IS
EXPECTED AND THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME INUNDATION.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES AND OVER THE WATERS ARE OBSERVED
AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. LATEST
OBSERVATIONS SHOW NEAR SHORE WAVES PUSHING 9 FEET WITH AN 11 SECOND
PERIOD WITH WAVES OFFSHORE NEAR JEFFREY'S LEDGE AT 14 FEET WITH AN
11 SECOND PERIOD. WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING
AND THEN HOLD STEADY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THAT RUNS THROUGH SUNDAY REMAINS UNCHANGED TO
COVER THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FROM LARGE WAVES AND STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE LONG DURATION OF A LONG
FETCH WILL CREATE OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNEAKER WAVES THAT WILL BE
LARGER EMBEDDED WAVES IN A SET AND HAVE POTENTIAL TO RUN FARTHER
INTO SHORE. THEREFORE, EXTRA CAUTION IS ENCOURAGED FOR THOSE
VENTURING TO THE BEACH TO OBSERVED THE SURF AND AVOID ROCK OUTCROPS
AND JETTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE WELL ADVERTISED NOR'EASTER WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTH FOR
A LITTLE BIT LONGER BEFORE STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE OFF THE COAST
OF NEW JERSEY BY EARLY SUNDAY. WE HAVE SEEN A COUPLE BANDS OF
LIGHT RAIN MOVE INTO THE AREA, GRADUALLY MOISTENING THE
ATMOSPHERE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. GUSTY WINDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY
WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE COAST SHOULD SEE A
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WHILE THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHWEST MAINE. HERE, LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO
4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY. CAMS SUGGEST THAT
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES WITH A CONVECTIVE
COMPONENT. THEREFORE, A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING MAY NOT BE
IMPOSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. EMBEDDED
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH P-WATS IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OR GREATER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START TO TAPER OFF LATER IN THE DAY ON
MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.
OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH AND THE NOR'EASTER TO OUR SOUTH BUT THE THREAT FOR
STRONGER WINDS MAY HAVE BACKED OFF JUST A BIT AS THE LOW CONTINUES
TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT PORTSMOUTH STILL
SUGGEST WE COULD SEE SOME WINDS IN THE 40 TO 45 KNOT RANGE AT THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BUT AVAILABLE MOMENTUM SHOULD DECREASING
NORTH AND EAST. IN GENERAL, IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL
BE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE
TO AROUND 40 MPH. ELSEWHERE EXPECT BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 25
TO 35 MPH. WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG, THIS WILL BE A
RATHER LONG DURATION EVENT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE STRONGEST
GUSTS LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BUT BREEZY CONDITIONS
WILL LAST INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. THUS, WITH PLENTY OF LEAVES ON
THE TREES THERE COULD BE A LIMITED POWER OUTAGE THREAT,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER THE NOR'EASTER MOVES OFFSHORE, THE 500MB PATTERN LOOKS TO
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. IN
ADDITION TO HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SOUTH OF THE NORTHEAST, THIS
COULD ALLOW FOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE, WHILE NOT EXACTLY ONTO OF THE
REGION, SHOULD KEEP MOST PLACES DRY. SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
COULD ALLOW FOR A STRAY SHOWER TO GENERATE ON WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY, BUT MOST PEOPLE SHOULD STAY DRY.
RAIN CHANCE ARE A LITTLE HIGHER ON FRIDAY, AS A COLD FRONT IS POISED
TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER RAIN CHANCES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT-CHANCE CATEGORY, AS THE FRONT IS VERY
WEAK AND ANY INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME A MODEST SUBSIDENCE
LAYER.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING AS THE DAY GOES
ON AND RAIN SPREADS ACROSS THE REGION. TERMINALS LIKELY FALL TO
MVFR CATEGORIES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. THE ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE AT HIE AND LEB WHERE VFR CEILINGS HANG ON UNTIL
LATER IN THE NIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY
LATE AT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE
AT SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TERMINALS. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WIND
GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25KTS TODAY/TONIGHT WITH 30 KTS
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS. SOME ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TERMINALS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY: WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR LIKELY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST IN RAIN. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE NORTHEAST SURFACE GUSTS
OF 35 KT OR MORE, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS PSM.
MONDAY: AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN/SHOWERS. NORTH NORTHEAST
SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
FRIDAY: VFR EXPECTED MOST PLACES. OCCL SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR AT HIE.
MARINE
DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO BUILD WINDS AND SEAS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WORST OF THE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. GALE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS BUT THE BAYS, WITH A STRONG SCA IN THE BAYS. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TO
DIMINISH. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
DROPPING BELOW THRESHOLDS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE NOR'EASTER ON TUESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF
6-10KTS ARE FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEAS OF 2-4FT LIKELY. SCA ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ023>027.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR MEZ023.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NHZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154-180-182-
184.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
DISCUSSION...MLE
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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