618
FXUS61 KGYX 202316
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS SUNDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN
TONIGHT.
2. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA SLIDES EAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.
3. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A SLOW MOVING COASTAL SYSTEM NEAR THE EAST
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK. IMPACTS WILL BE TRACK DEPENDENT, WHICH
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE, WHILE THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR RAIN, GUSTY NE WINDS, AND HIGH SURF SOMETIME OVER
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAINFALL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. NO FLOODING ISSUES
ARE EXPECTED WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY RANGING FROM A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FROM AUGUSTA AND POINTS NORTH AND EAST
WITH A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ELSEWHERE. FOG IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
AS LIGHT WINDS ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO STICK AROUND AND
IT MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR ME WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER
40S ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER LIKELY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BE THE SOURCE OF THIS
FAIR WEATHER AS IT DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE WEEK. AS THE HIGH REMAINS
CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR BOTH DAY TIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
MOST NIGHTS AND IT IS LIKELY SOME SPOTS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE SOME FROST.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNAL FOR A CUT
OFF UPPER LOW NEAR THE EAST COAST SPAWNING AT LEAST ONE SURFACE LOW
IN THE VICINITY OF THE GULF STREAM. WHILE THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT THERE HAS BEEN LARGE MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO
RUN VARIABILITY IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A POTENTIAL COASTAL LOW
NEAR THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE
CURRENT ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS RANGES FROM MOSTLY A MISS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA TO A SEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR
THE GULF OF MAINE. THE FORMER WILL STILL LIKELY BRING SOME HIGH SURF
TO THE AREA AND POSSIBLY SOME MEASURABLE RAIN, WHILE THE LATTER WILL
BRING GREATER POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL IMPACTS AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS
AND RAIN INTO THE INTERIOR. AT THIS TIME, THIS SYSTEM IS AROUND
6 DAYS OUT SO IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A COUPLE MORE DAYS TO GAIN
SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS POTENTIAL
SYSTEM.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z MONDAY: -RA AND BR/FG WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
LOWERING RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH IFR-LIFR
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH AROUND 12Z MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
LATER MONDAY WITH N WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE. NO LLWS IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT
RAIN. FLOW WILL BECOME OFFSHORE ON MONDAY WITH N WIND GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS. SEAS WILL BE AT
1-3 FT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH
MID WEEK WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFFSHORE OF THE
MID ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
INTO TUESDAY. A STRENGTHENING NE GRADIENT WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND
POTENTIAL FOR GALES LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TRACK, SEAS WILL LIKELY
BUILD IN EXCESS OF 5-7 AROUND THURSDAY AND CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO THE WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/SCHROETER/TUBBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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