068
FXUS61 KGYX 131927
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
327 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN TODAY, MORE WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT
RAIN ARRIVES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. HAVE INCREASED RAIN TOTALS ALONG THE ME COAST WHERE
COASTAL FRONT ENHANCEMENT COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN ME COAST INLAND TOWARDS THE
WHITES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ON AND OFF SHOWERS TONIGHT LEAD INTO A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
WHILE FLOODING IS NOT FORECAST, RAIN RATES MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
2. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BEGINNING THIS
WEEKEND, AND MAY BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. LOCAL
WATERS HOWEVER REMAIN VERY COLD AND THIS MAY BE THE FIRST REAL
STRETCH OF WEATHER WHERE THAT IS A RECREATIONAL HAZARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER A PERIOD OF RAIN PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY, MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS.
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT,
INCOMING FRONT WILL TEND TO ORIENT POLEWARD. THIS WILL SLOW ITS
EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND INSTEAD ADVECT MOISTURE IN FROM THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND LLJ ARRIVING FROM
OFFSHORE LOW TO THE EAST, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BREAK OUT ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, PUSHING NORTH. DEPENDING ON PLACEMENT OF
THE OCCLUSION COME THURSDAY, THIS WILL BE THE FOCAL POINT OF
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND RESULTING MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE
DAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN WHERE THIS LINES UP, AND IT WILL
PLAY A BIG ROLE IN AMOUNTS FOR NH DURING THE DAYTIME. A FURTHER
EAST TRANSLATION COULD LEAD TO GREATER AMOUNTS OF NH, WHERE A
SLOWER TREK WOULD BRING MUCH OF THIS RAIN JUST TO THE WEST. EVEN
WITH THIS SPREAD, AROUND A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL SEEMS LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH THROUGH THURSDAY DAYTIME.
INTO THE EVENING, THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS MORE SOUTH
AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS WHEN THE BAND OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING REALLY COMPLIMENT EACH OTHER AND COULD LEAD
TO MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES FROM THE SOUTHERN ME COAST
INLAND TOWARDS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. RAIN PROCESSES SHOULD BE
EFFICIENT WITH A 30+ KT LLJ AND PWATS OVER 1 INCH, BUT WARM
CLOUD DEPTH IS FAIRLY SHALLOW BETWEEN 6 TO 7 KFT. THUS NOT
OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING POTENTIAL WITH THIS EVENT, AND
MORE LOOK AT IT AS A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO RECHARGE SOME DROUGHT
DEFICIT.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONDITIONS (SHOWERS) INTO
FRIDAY, BUT ITS TRACK EAST WILL FEATURE LESSER FORCING AND
GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ONCE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION WE LOOK TO TREND
FAIRLY QUICKLY TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SAT AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL
TRANSPORT MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND TEMPS
SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
MUCH A STRONG PUSH TO DRIVE THE FRONT ENTIRELY THRU THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS IT STANDS RIGHT
NOW THE BEST SHEAR/CAPE COMBINATION APPEARS TO BE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, BUT I COULD SEE THAT TRENDING EASTWARD OVER TIME
AND IT IS SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON FOR SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES. AFTER SUN THE REAL PUSH OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE. THERE IS STRONG ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN TEMPS CLIMBING
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AND 80S AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 90S ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA. IF THAT COMES TO PASS THERE WILL BE
THE TYPICAL EARLY HEAT CONCERNS FOR SENSITIVE POPULATIONS, BUT
ALSO THE HAZARD OF RECREATION WHILE THE INLAND AND OCEAN WATERS
REMAIN VERY COLD. AS THIS ROUND OF HEAT BREAKS MIDWEEK THERE
WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND LONG RANGE MACHINE
LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AS ANOTHER PERIOD
TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY WITH RA AND MVFR CIGS. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF WINDOWS
OF IFR CIGS WITHIN OR SHORTLY AFTER SHRA LIFTING NORTH, BUT
EXPECT A TREND BACK TO VFR FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
THIS EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN VIS REDUCTION DUE TO FOG
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE HAS LOW PROBABILITIES, BUT THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT ADVECTING ONSHORE CREATES A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR TERMINALS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE A WINDOW OF 30-40KT LLWS INTO EARLY THURS AM.
MORE RA/SHRA THURSDAY, MAINLY FOCUSED SOUTH AND WEST OF AUG/RKD.
WOULD EXPECT TREND TO MVFR EARLY MORNING, WITH IFR INTO THE
DAYTIME FOR MOST TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY NIGHT: RA MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES TOWARDS SOUTHERN
COASTAL ME AND SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS. WOULD EXPECT IFR VIS/CIG,
WITH LIFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY: BECOMING VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
A PERIOD OF SCA GUSTS IS FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT A LULL IS
EXPECTED AS WINDS SHIFT THURSDAY. NE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, AGAIN BUILDING WAVE HEIGHTS 4 TO 6 FT.
THERE ARE TWO PERIODS OF POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS COMING UP IN
THE EXTENDED RANGE. BOTH WILL OCCUR WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL FRESHEN AHEAD OF THE FRONTS, BUT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM ADVECTION THIS TIME OF YEAR STRUGGLES
TO FULLY MIX DOWN OVER THE SURFACE OF THE COLD GULF OF MAINE
WATERS. SO I AM NOT SOLD YET THAT WE REACH CRITERIA, BUT SOME
NEAR 25 KT GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH SAT AND AGAIN NEXT WED.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/LEGRO
AVIATION...CORNWELL/LEGRO
MARINE...CORNWELL/LEGRO
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