872
FXUS61 KGYX 042356
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
656 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. JUST BLENDED IN
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER FIELDS TO THE GOING
FORECAST AND UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TEMPERATURES TURN COOLER BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
2. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THIS WEEKEND. BITTERLY
COLD TEMPS WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS. A COLD WEATHER WATCH IS POSSIBLE IN SUBSEQUENT
SHIFTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY,
WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES. THE FRONT WEAKENS
ON ITS WAY THROUGH, SO WE DON'T SEE A MAJOR SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR
WITH THIS FRONT; THAT HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH
THIS FRONT, COOLER AIR FILTERS IN THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS
CLEAR AND WINDS EASE. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM A FEW DEGREES
EITHER SIDE OF 0 TONIGHT, WITH THE COOLEST READINGS IN THE
VALLEYS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. MORE CLOUDS LINGER NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW.
HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH, TO THE UPPER
20S ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. MAINLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH MORE CLOUDS LINGERING NORTH. A
STEADY NORTHWESTERLY BREEZE PERSISTS THROUGH THE DAY.
MORE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS EASE
THROUGH THE EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT, BUT
TEMPS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE COAST, TO BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE INTERIOR BEFORE THESE CLOUDS BEGIN TO HAVE ANY
INFLUENCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AT SOME POINT ON SAT.
WHILE TIMING MAY SHIFT SEVERAL HOURS FROM CURRENT FORECASTS,
WHAT IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IS THAT TEMPS WILL PLUMMET ONCE MORE.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE GREATEST TEMP ANOMALIES
CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT GUIDANCE IS STILL
ON THE ORDER OF A ONCE EVERY 2 TO 5 YEAR AIR MASS AT 850 MB. NBM
TEMPS SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS RANGE, BUT BUFKIT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXED LAYER TAPPING 30 TO 40 KT WINDS ALOFT. THAT
SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. I
BLENDED IN SOME 90TH PERCENTILE WINDS/GUSTS TO THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE RESULT WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS BEGINNING SAT NIGHT AND POSSIBLY LAST THRU SUN NIGHT FOR
SOME NORTHERN ZONES. CURRENTLY LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA HAVE WIND CHILLS IN THE 20 TO 30 BELOW RANGE SAT NIGHT AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER SUN NIGHT, SO IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT HEADLINES
WILL BE NECESSARY AT SOME POINT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONDITIONS
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH THAT A COLD WEATHER WATCH MAY BE ISSUED
PRIOR TO THE WEEKEND TO ENSURE AWARENESS.
OTHERWISE THE PASSAGE THE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF AN INVERTED TROF
DEVELOPING AND THAT COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR MORE PROLONGED
AND STEADY SNOWFALL, SO I AM NOT READY TO RULE OUT SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS YET. NBM FORECAST IS ALREADY AT HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POP, SO I DID NOT SEE ANY REASON TO ADJUST THAT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST SITES THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE HIE, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY
LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY: AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE IN SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SECOND HALF OF DAY WESTERLY
WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MTNS,
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MTNS. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT
OR MORE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT
OR MORE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS EVENING. MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT
OTHERWISE MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRI BUT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE WATERS SAT. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY
AND BECOME GUSTY. GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS. TEMPS WILL ALSO FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP
BEGINNING SAT NIGHT. THE GUSTY WINDS AND AT LEAST AREAS OF
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUE INTO MON.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARGROVE/CLAIR/LEGRO
AVIATION...HARGROVE/CLAIR/LEGRO
MARINE...CLAIR/LEGRO
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