081
FXUS61 KGYX 162148
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
548 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD FOG MENTIONING INTO THE WEATHER GRIDS AS
WIDESPREAD FOG IS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION. ALSO, ISSUED
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR COASTAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS FOR
THE CONTINUED THREAT FROM LOCALLY DENSE FOG. VISIBILITY SHOULD
IMPROVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WINDS INCREASE AND THE RAIN
RETURNS. OTHERWISE, TWEAKED WINDS AND LOADED IN THE LATEST
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MULTIPLE
WAVES OF RAIN TO NEARLY ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL MAINLY FALL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AS A RESULT OF SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND
SNOWMELT. THE RISK OF FLOODING AS A RESULT OF ICE JAMS REMAINS
LOW, BUT NON- ZERO AS SOME ICE DOES REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN BASINS.
2. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG WINDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 40 TO 50
MPH RANGE OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE, COASTAL AREAS, THE
INTERIOR OF MAINE, AND THE SOUTHERN KENNEBEC RIVER VALLEY. ANY
CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY COULD LEAD TO SOME HIGHER GUSTS.
3. COLDER AIR BRIEFLY RETURNS MIDWEEK WITH QUIETER WEATHER
BEFORE TEMPERATURES TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE WELL ADVERTISED LOW CONTINUES TO APPROACH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THE INITIAL SLUG OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAIN HAS GENERALLY PUSHED THROUGH, WE ARE SEEING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN IT'S WAKE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE RADAR WILL
FILL IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE BETTER FORCING
FOR ASCENT ARRIVES, WHICH IS ALREADY STARTING TO BE OBSERVED OVER
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS STILL
ANTICIPATED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL
THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY ON TUESDAY.
STORM TOTAL 1 TO 2 INCH VALUES WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
TO 3 INCHES STILL SEEM REASONABLE. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL, PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW.
FINALLY, MOST OF THE CAMS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ADVERTISING
AROUND 100 TO 300 J/KG OF MUCAPE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. WHILE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME THUNDER LOOK TO
BE ALONG COASTAL AREAS, THE INTERIOR OF MAINE AND UP INTO THE
SOUTHERN KENNEBEC VALLEY, SOME RUMBLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ELSEWHERE GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND FAIRLY STEEP MID- LEVEL
LAPSE RATES. WE ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELDS RIGHT OFF THE SURFACE
(MORE ABOUT THAT NEXT).
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AS ELUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS SECTION, THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
LIKELY BRING STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
A HIGHLY ANAMOLOUS LOW-LEVEL JET IN THE 70 TO 90+ KNOT RANGE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE MAGNITUDE OF SURFACE
WIND GUSTS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOMENTUM CAN MIX DOWN
WHICH IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN A STRONG TEMPERATURE INVERSION
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. EVEN WITH THIS INVERSION, WIDESPREAD 40 TO
50 MPH GUSTS SEEM REASONABLE, ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL AREAS, THE
INTERIOR OF MAINE, AND THE SOUTHERN KENNEBEC RIVER VALLEY. IF
ANY DEEPER CONVECTION MOVES OVERHEAD, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME STRONGER WINDS TO MIX DOWN SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH
CLOSELY. FOR NOW, THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE BUT A SHORT FUSED HIGH WIND WARNING OR CONVECTIVE WARNINGS
COULD BE NEEDED THIS EVENING DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THOUGH LATE TONIGHT, WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE WEST AND REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, WE WILL LIKELY SEE WIDESPREAD GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S SO IT WILL BE A RAW
BLUSTERY DAY WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER TEENS NORTH, TO THE
UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL BUT COLD WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED
AFTER THE DEPARTURE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A BITTERLY COLD
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SINGLE-DIGITS
ABOVE ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAKES A
SLIGHT REALIGNMENT TO THE WEST. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH MODELS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN ON
TIMING AND STORM TRACK.
AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST THE DAY UNDER LOW CEILINGS AND PERIODIC RAIN
AND/OR FOG. ENHANCED LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KTS WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY AT ALMOST ALL SITES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS CONTINUES THIS
EVENING AS A SECOND ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARRIVES
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. LLWS CONTINUES WITH MANY TERMINALS SEEING AN
INCREASE TO 40-60KTS, WITH STRONG SE TO S SURFACE GUSTS, 30-40
KTS, ALONG AT LEAST COASTAL TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: TRENDING VFR WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLY
HANGING ON AT HIE. GUSTY W WINDS TO 30 KTS.
TUESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: VFR EXPECTED, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
LOWER CIGS AT HIE DUE TO A STRAY SNOW SHOWER ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY: VFR EXPECTED, THOUGH RESTRICTIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW.
MARINE
EXPECT FREQUENT GALES THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND FREQUENT
STORM FORCE GUSTS BY TONIGHT. STORM FORCE GUSTS TAPER OFF EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING WITH GALES TAPERING OFF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS
WIND WILL BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO A PEAK OF 12-15FT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, AND THEN THEY WILL VERY SLOWLY START TO FALL THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY RAIN AN
POSSIBLY THUNDER TO THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS OF 8-12FT AND WESTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS START TO IMPROVE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SUB-SCA LEVEL
WESTERLIES AND 6-10FT SEAS EXPECTED BY THEN. SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS
OF 3-7FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
A FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
AIRMASS INTERACTS WITH THE RIPE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MAIN FOCUS IS ON EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WHEN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TONIGHT COINCIDES WITH RAPID MELT, LEADING TO DRAMATIC RISES IN
AREA STREAMS AND RIVERS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL
SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH SOME ENSEMBLES TARGETING THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE MIDCOAST OF MAINE WITH UP TO 3 INCHES.
GIVEN THE ANAMOLOUS MOISTURE, EXPECTED PWATS SHOULD BE IN THE
1.2 TO 1.4 INCH RANGE (NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID- MARCH).
THUS, THE ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE LATE MOISTURE SURGE TONIGHT WILL BE THE REAL NUDGE NEEDED
TO PUSH WATER OUT OF THE ALREADY RIPENED SNOWPACK. THE EXPECTED
SNOWMELT WATER LOSS OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES WILL MOSTLY OCCUR BETWEEN
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, ABOUT 6 TO 12 HOURS.
THE COINCIDING OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH RAPID SNOWMELT WILL
LEAD TO SWIFT RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS. THE MAINSTREAM
RIVERS HAVE A LOT OF CHANNEL CAPACITY DUE TO LINGERING DROUGHT,
BUT MORE CONFINED CHANNELS IN THE MOUNTAINS OR SMALL STREAMS
COULD EASILY BE OVERWHELMED RESULTING IN LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING. DEEP FROST WILL LIMIT INFILTRATION, SO FOR SOME AREAS
THE SHEER VOLUME OF WATER COULD OVERWHELM CULVERTS, LOW-LYING
AREAS, AND LOW-WATER CROSSINGS. EXPECT URBAN STREET FLOODING AND
DRAINAGE ISSUES. WHILE MANY SOUTHERN RIVERS ARE ICE-FREE, SOME
ICE REMAINS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BASINS. THERE REMAINS
A NON-ZERO RISK FOR MECHANICAL BREAK-UP AND UNPREDICTABLE JAMS
AS FLOWS INCREASE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-
018>028-033.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ014-021>028.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ018>020.
NH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NHZ001>015.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ014.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ007>013-015.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ153.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/HARGROVE
AVIATION...TUBBS
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