248
FXUS61 KGYX 152338
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
738 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. JUST
BLENDED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST AND
UPDATED THE AVIATION FORECAST. SMOKE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DIP
SOUTH THROUGH THE NEAR TERM.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN ONTARIO SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING BEFORE MEANDERING BACK NORTH THURSDAY INTO SOUTHERN NH AND
SW MAINE.
2. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. COLD FRONT BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS, MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE MAINE COAST.
3. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES BRING WATER LEVELS TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE
AGAIN TONIGHT.
4. SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS CONTINUE FROM THE END OF THE
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A SEASONABLY STRONG MID LEVEL GRADIENT AND UPPER JET CONTINUES TO
CHANNEL WILD FIRE SMOKE FROM ONTARIO TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE CENTROID OF THE
SMOKE PLUME HAS GRADUALLY SHIFTED SOUTH THROUGH TODAY AND RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR SHOW THIS PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEANER LOOKING SKIES ACROSS
BUT FAR SW MAINE WITH SMOKE STILL IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN NH. SMOKE SHOULD CLEAR SOUTH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
TONIGHT. RECENT RUNS OF HRRR SHOW THAT THE SMOKE PLUME WILL
SHIFT BACK NORTH THURSDAY MORNING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NH AND FAR
SW MAINE. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THAT WILL SHIFT THE SMOKE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH FILTERED SURFACE
HEATING HAS ALLOWED FOR 250 TO 500 J/KG OF MU CAPE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. CAMS SUGGEST AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD
DEVELOP THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. POPS ARE LIMITED TO 15 TO 25
PERCENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE MID COAST AND ANY SUSTAIN
STORM COULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THURSDAY AND ITS PASSAGE
WILL BE WELL TIMED WITH PEAK HEATING. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED, KEEPING CAPE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG. CAMS
GENERALLY ADVERTISE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING
SOUTH FROM THE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE MAINE COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY ALLOW FOR STORMS TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS APPROACHING 50 MPH. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES BRING WATER LEVELS TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE
AGAIN TONIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
ADDRESSING THIS. WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, RESIDUAL SURGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH HIGH
TIDE TONIGHT, SO WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER
THAN LAST NIGHT'S HIGH TIDE.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
A SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME PATTERN SETTLES IN BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. A TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND LABRADOR,
KEEPING A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ONGOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS KEEPS SEASONABLE AIRMASSES FROM INTERIOR CANADA PRESENT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND ALSO PRESENTS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRAVERSES THE
JET STREAM BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE RAIN TIMING FOR THIS
WEEKEND, BUT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY, BUT SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE
THE DRIER DAY OVERALL.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN PRETTY CONSISTENT FOR EARLY TO
MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUED HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S
EACH DAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WOULD LIKELY
ARRIVE AROUND THE WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND INTO NEW ENGLAND.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING, GUSTING TO 20 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TSRA WILL TRACK FROM THE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE MAINE
COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO
RESTRICTIONS AT HIE, LEB, AUG AND RKD. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW. STORM CHANCES DIMINISH
THURSDAY EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING: VFR PREVAILS.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY MORNING: MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON - TUESDAY: VFR RETURNS AND PREVAILS, WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.
NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. OFFSHORE WINDS TURN SW THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY EVENING SHIFTING WINDS BACK OFFSHORE
FRIDAY.
FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
THEN CROSSES THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS IN WESTERLY FLOW ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH FAIR CONDITIONS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/HARGROVE/SCHROETER
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