111
FXUS61 KGYX 191822
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
122 PM EST WED NOV 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER,
TONIGHT'S TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY GIVEN A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT WINDS. BY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGIT
READINGS EVEN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE AREA TO END THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING MOSTLY RAIN
SHOWERS BUT SOME MOUNTAIN SNOWS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WITH MOST OF NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEAMPLIFYING
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM
THE WEST, THE NEAR TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY QUIET. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
RANGING FROM THE 20S AND 30S NORTH AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS, TO
THE LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE.
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT UNDER A CLEAR SKY OVERHEAD.
CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND A
COLD NIGHT. FOR LOWS, THE DECISION WAS MADE TO BLEND IN THE NBM
10TH PERCENTILE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BETTER CAPTURE THIS
SIGNAL. EXPECT WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER
20S WITH A FEW SINGLE DIGITS POSSIBLE OVER SOME OF THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS. LAST NIGHT SAW SOME CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY FOG SO
FORMATION IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AGAIN TONIGHT AND ADDED
SOME MENTION OF PATCHY FOG HERE.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE SHORT TERM ALSO LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS WE SLOWLY TRANSITION
TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND THEN BACK INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THURSDAY'S HIGHS SHOULD
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT WE MAY BE A TOUCH WARMER OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT BUT SHOULD START TO
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT.
CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO START TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES CLOSER AND WE TRANSITION INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD BUT STILL PRETTY CHILLY, MAINLY IN
THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING WITH LACK OF
MOISTURE NEEDED FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIP EVENT.
DETAILS: OCCLUDED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PUSH A FRONTAL
FEATURE TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA, BUT TIMING HAS CONTINUED TO TREND
SLOWER. WOULD EXPECT EXPANDING AND THICKENING CLOUDS TO BRING
PRECIP TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FIRST, GRADUALLY FILLING INTO
THE MTN VALLEYS INTO THE AFTERNOON. DOWNSLOPING WILL FURTHER
ERODE WHAT MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THE FRONT, AND QPF OUTSIDE OF
THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS IS LIGHT, PERHAPS MORE SHOWERY.
SOUTHERN MOISTURE REMAINS A NON-FACTOR AS A TRAIN OF ZONAL LOWS
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY KEEPS MUCH OF THIS SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTH. WHERE GUIDANCE EARLIER THIS WEEK ATTEMPTED TO PHASE THESE
TWO SYSTEMS, THIS NOW LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE DURING OR AFTER THE
OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THUS THOUGHTS
YESTERDAY STILL HOLD TRUE WITH THE MOST PRECIP IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND DRYING BRINGING LESS QPF TO THE COAST AND INTERIOR. THERE
ARE SOME SOLUTIONS THAT BRING A SECOND PLUME OF RAIN INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE BY SATURDAY MORNING, CLIPPING SOUTHERN NH AND THE
SOUTHERN ME COAST. HOWEVER, STILL EQUAL CHANCES THIS OCCURS
LATER AND OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS. FOR PRECIP TYPES, MODEL
SOUNDINGS POINT TO A RAIN/SNOW EVENT WITH RAIN IN MOST
LOCATIONS AND SNOW MIXING IN FOR THE MOUNTAINS.
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WORKS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
CLOUDS REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. DRYING IN THE COLUMN
INCREASES CONFIDENCE THAT OTHER LOCATIONS SEE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. DID DROP LOW TEMPERATURES FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IN THE
LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS. THIS SHOULD BE ATTAINABLE IN GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. HESITANT TO GO ANY LOWER WITH
CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE SOUTH AND LIGHT NW BREEZE CONTINUING
IN THE EVENING.
WILL LOOK FOR ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER BRIEF
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH EARLY WEEK. NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE REGION WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE INTO MID-WEEK NEXT
WEEK. EARLY DETERMINISTIC RUNS, AND AI-GEFS, PORTRAY THIS AS A
OVERUNNING EVENT WITH ADDITIONAL LOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF OF
MAINE. THIS COULD LEAD TO CAD AND MIXED PRECIP, BUT DURATION AND
INTENSITY WILL NEED TO BE REFINED AS THE DATE NEARS.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG TONIGHT OVER THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WHICH MAY IMPACT LEB, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION FOR THE SITE SPECIFIC TAF.
ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD LIFT BY EARLY TO MID THURSDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM...CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR
CEILINGS OVERTAKING THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ITS POSSIBLE COASTAL TERMINALS SEE ONLY PERIODS OF MVFR, WHERE
GREATER CONFIDENCE OF THESE LOWER CEILINGS IS FURTHER INLAND AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS. STILL COULD SEE PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS FOR
MOUNTAIN/WESTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SHRA IS FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, MOST PROMINENT TO AGAIN WHERE MVFR IS LIKELY. SHSN
MAY REDUCE SOME VIS IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT TREND TO VFR FOR
SAT AND SUN, WITH LOWERED CEILINGS HOLDING ON TOWARDS HIE AND
CAN/US BORDER LOCATIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY FLOW PREEMPTS PASSAGE OF A OCCLUDED FRONT
FRIDAY NIGHT. THESE BECOME NW SATURDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT
ON THE COASTAL WATERS. THESE SLACKEN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. A WEAKER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE
NORTH SUN NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION MON/TUES.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...HARGROVE
SHORT TERM...HARGROVE
LONG TERM...CORNWELL
AVIATION...HARGROVE/CORNWELL
MARINE...HARGROVE/CORNWELL
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