743
FXUS61 KGYX 101047
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AND ISSUED A NEW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STARTING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
MAINLY THE NORTHERN ZONES THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. RAIN IS
EXPECTED WELL SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT COLD LOW LEVEL AIR IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS WILL PORTEND TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
2. RELATIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR LATE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH AN UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, WHICH
SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RAISED A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE WITH THE APPROACH OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD OUT OF
QUEBEC. THIS SETUP WILL BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME
STRONG OVERRUNNING WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT. WHILE THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, MID LEVEL FORCING
WILL DRIVE THE PRECIPITATION, AND THIS WILL BE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SOME SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS SOUTHERN NH RECEIVES VERY LITTLE RAINFALL FROM
THIS SYSTEM. THERE ARE ALSO SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AMONGST
THE VARIOUS SOURCES OF GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO HEAVIEST PRECIP
PLACEMENT, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS LIFTING IT NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LEAVING THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF HEAVIER PRECIP.
WITH COLD LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS AND SOME FOOTHILLS. HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION GETS WILL BE DICTATED
BY HOW COLD THE LOW LEVEL AIRMASS GETS AND HOW FAR SOUTH IT
OOZES. WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST
THE MOUNTAINS BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LOW WITH UNTREATED
ROADS BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. WE AREN'T FORECASTING ENOUGH FZRA
AT THIS TIME TO CAUSE MUCH TROUBLE WITH RESPECT TO POWER
OUTAGES. THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN AND WITH FROPA BY AROUND
12Z THURSDAY.
HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES ON WEDNESDAY AS
IT'S TYPICAL IN MARCH FOR WARM FRONTS TO NOT MAKE MUCH HEADWAY
PAST THE NH/MA BORDER IN THESE SETUPS.
FLOOD RISK REMAINS LOW, BUT ICE JAMS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THURSDAY HAS A BRIEF CHANCE TO WARM UP IN THE MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND, AND BARELY BRINGS THE WARM
SECTOR INTO SOUTHERN AREAS. THERE IS STILL QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER IT WILL ACTUALLY BREAK THROUGH THE LINGERING COLD AIR
DAM, BUT AFTERNOON MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD BRING HIGHS
INTO AT LEAST THE 40S DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. A COOLER, BUT
SEASONABLE AIRMASS RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTH.
A SYSTEM IS THEN POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT
HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH AND A BIT WEAKER SINCE YESTERDAY. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THIS
TO CHANGE OVER THE COMING DAYS, BUT FOR NOW THE TREND LOOKS TO
BE TOWARD A LESS IMPACTFUL SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES LIKELY TREND COOLER BY LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSED IN FROM THE NORTH. ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH IT BEING NEARLY A
WEEK OUT IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO TRY TO NAIL DOWN ANY DETAILS ON
THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. BECOMING IFR LATE TONIGHT AND LIFR ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RAIN (MOUNTAIN FROZEN PRECIP) ARRIVES. A
STRENGTHENING SSW LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING THE THREAT OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS LIKELY START TO IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
FRIDAY: VFR, BUT CHANCES FOR RESTRICTIONS/PRECIPITATION INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN TERMINALS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: IFR POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT SNOW, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND
WEST.
SATURDAY - SATURDAY NIGHT: MOST SITES RETURN TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WITH
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. EASTERLY WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS
WEDNESDAY, BUT ARE MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. MARGINAL WESTERLY GALES ARE THEN POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE PASSING COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY GALES ARE THEN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN PRESSES IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL APPROACH DAILY RECORD HIGHS AT
LONG TERM CLIMATE SITES.
SITE LOCATION FORECAST TEMPERATE RECORD TEMPERATURE RECORD YEAR
AUGUSTA 66F 64F 2016
CONCORD 71F 72F 1878
PORTLAND 66F 66F 2016
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/EKSTER/SCHROETER
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