296
FXUS61 KGYX 181813
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
113 PM EST TUE NOV 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WHILE
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY COME TO AND END BY THIS
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SOME STEADY IMPROVEMENT IN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION, BUT THE PATTERN WILL ALSO LEAD TO IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO GET QUITE COLD. WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN
PARTICULAR COULD BE VERY CHILLY ACROSS THE REGION. SOME SINGLE
DIGITS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY,
WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WINDS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.
* CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.
FORECAST DETAILS: NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING PLENTY OF CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTH COUNTRY WITH CLEARING SKIES TO THE SOUTH. A FEW
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN COOS COUNTY IN NH AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OXFORD,
FRANKLIN, AND SOMERSET COUNTIES IN ME. HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS HEIGHTS RISE THROUGH THE NEAR AND
SHORT TERM AND THE FLOW GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFIES.
WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES, WE WILL LIKELY
SEE SOME DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
TONIGHT. LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTH,
TO THE LOW TO MID 20S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGE:
* THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS FORECAST TO MAINLY RANGE FROM THE
LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH, TO THE LOW TO MID 20S SOUTH.
FORECAST DETAILS: THE FLOW CONTINUES TO DEAMPLIFY THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS WE TRANSITION TO ALMOST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE FINALLY MAY START TO SEE SOME CLEARING IN
AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
NUDGE CLOSER. IN SHORT, THIS PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO A PLEASANT
BUT COOL WEDNESDAY THAT WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
CALM WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A TOUCH WARMER THAN TODAY
BUT THE LACK OF WIND SHOULD MAKE IT FEEL A BIT WARMER. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM UPPER 20S TO 30S NORTH, TO THE LOW TO
MID 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THEN COMES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH PLENTY OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL
MAINLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH, TO THE LOW TO MID
20S SOUTH. A FEW SINGLE DIGIT READINGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* QUICK, LOW MOISTURE SYSTEM INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS TO THE AREA, WITH A BRIEF WINTRY MIX
TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIP, WHILE
LIGHT, LOOKS MOSTLY ELEVATION BASED.
DETAILS: HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD THURSDAY WILL SEE COOL
TEMPERATURE CONTINUE, BUT MORE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT AS TEMPS DIP INTO THE
MID 20S. THIS HIGH WILL PULL EAST AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY WILL SWING AN OCCLUDED FRONT INTO
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH POTENTIAL TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVING
INTO NY STATE FRI MORNING. NEARING WARM FRONT WILL BRING TEMP
INCREASE FOR THE DAY OVERALL, BUT ONLY INTO THE MID TO UPPER
40S, WITH TEMPS AROUND 50 FOR THE COAST. FOCUS FOR THE SYSTEM
WILL BE A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION, MOST OF WHICH MAY BE SHOWERY
FOR BULK OF THE COAST AND INTERIOR. THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED
TO SEE THE GREATEST QPF, BUT NBM AND AI GFS BOTH DEPICT
COMPARATIVE AMOUNTS INTO THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE THE MOST BEARISH OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS, LIKELY EMPHASIZING THE LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. FOR PRECIP TYPES, MODEL PROFILES ARE WARM, AND DON'T
EXPECT WINTRY PRECIP OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. EVEN HERE, THE
AFTERNOON ARRIVAL MAY LIMIT HOW MUCH IS SEEN IN THE VALLEYS VS.
HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY AS THE PATTERN ISN'T TOO
FAVORABLE FOR CAD.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER FRIDAY NIGHT, ENDING BY SAT MORNING.
DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL LEAVE BEHIND A BREEZY SATURDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE TO GOING CONDITIONS. FORECAST SUPPORTS A
DRY WEEKEND, WITH THE NW SURFACE FLOW CONTINUING TO BRING IN
LOWER THAN NORMAL TEMPS. WHILE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO STICK
AROUND, THIS FLOW COULD LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
TEENS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NH AND FAR WESTERN ME SAT NIGHT.
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE, BUT
THERE REMAINS LITTLE TO NO CONFIDENCE IN ONE PARTICULAR SYSTEM.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SINK INTO THE JAMES BAY REGION WITH
BROAD JET FROM THE MIDWEST INTO OHIO VALLEY. THIS SHOULD BE GOOD
TRANSPORT FOR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ALONG WHICH IS WHAT
CARRIES THE CONFIDENCE OF A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HANG ON AT HIE
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWEST MAINE. HIE HAS A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING ONE OF THESE
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED THURSDAY, BUT CLOUDS WILL BE DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE PROSPECT OF MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
FRI AFTERNOON IS INCREASING WITH SHRA ACROSS THE AREA AND
SHRASN IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TREND TOWARDS VFR EXPECTED
INTO SATURDAY, CONTINUING SUNDAY. WILL SEE SE WINDS FRIDAY TURNING
NW SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS. DESPITE SURFACE
INVERSION, LLJ NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO MENTION LLWS AT THIS TIME
SATURDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS SUBSIDING BY THIS EVENING. WINDS AND
SEAS THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WILL SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
(WINDS AND WAVES) DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, LIMITED SURFACE
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA CRITERIA. WILL LOOK
TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR NEXT POTENTIAL MARINE HAZARDS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
NEAR TERM...HARGROVE
SHORT TERM...HARGROVE
LONG TERM...CORNWELL
AVIATION...HARGROVE/CORNWELL
MARINE...HARGROVE/CORNWELL
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