186
FXUS61 KGYX 032317
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
717 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
715 PM UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR THIS
EVENING. WILL CANCEL THE HEAT PRODUCTS SHORTLY AND PUT UP A HEAT
ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NH FOR TOMORROW AS THE HUMID AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE, CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ARE LOW, BUT NON-ZERO.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HOT AND HUMID INTO THIS EVENING WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. NOT QUITE AS HOT SATURDAY AS
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY TREND DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY.
2. COOLER, MORE COMFORTABLE AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION LATER
THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY
REBOUND INTO LATE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ARE GREATEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. FORTUNATELY AND UNFORTUNATELY,
THERE IS AGAIN A BIT OF BREEZE OUT OF THE W/WNW, BUT THIS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE SEABREEZE FROM BRINGING RELIEF TO MOST OF THE COASTLINE.
AS FAR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CAMS
AREN'T SHOWING MUCH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OR MAKING INTO NH AND
WESTERN ME, BUT KEEP IN MIND THESE HAVE NOT HAD A GOOD TRACK RECORD
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. SO WITH THE SAME AIRMASS (ALTHOUGH
SLIGHTLY DRIER AND LESS UNSTABLE TODAY) IN PLACE, I THINK WE
COULD AGAIN SEE A FEW STORMS, WHETHER THEY DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND
MOVE INTO THE AREA OR SIMPLY DEVELOP OVER NH OR WESTERN ME.
THESE WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING OF STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN HAZARD, BUT HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. IF
STORMS DO OCCUR, THE MORE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH, WHERE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/5) IS IN PLACE BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM ELSEWHERE.
MOST CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OR MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER, BUT AN ADDITIONAL STORM OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WITH SOME ELEVATED CAPE REMAINING AND WEAK
WAVES MOVING OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES REMAIN VERY WARM AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SATURDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY BUT NOT TO THE LEVELS OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND SENDS
A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO BEGIN TO SUPPRESS THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE TO FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ALOFT (+16C TO +19C) SUPPORT REACHING
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, BUT DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO COME DOWN INTO THE LOWER 60S (AND MAYBE EVEN UPPER
50S) IN THE AFTERNOON BOTH DUE TO DEEPER MIXING AND SOME DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL BRING IN LOWER HUMIDITY AND NOT
MAKE IT FEEL AS OPPRESSIVE OUT, BUT HEAT INDICES COULD STILL
APPROACH 95F ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH AND MAYBE THE ME
COAST. IT'S POSSIBLE A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED IN PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NH BUT WILL LET THE NEXT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS IT
LOOKS PRETTY MARGINAL. AS INSTABILITY BUILDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON, EXPECT AT LEAST SOME DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS
BUT HAVE CHANCE LIMITED TO 20-30% ACROSS THE BOARD.
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MOVE COMFORTABLE LEVELS SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S, BUT 50S ARE POSSIBLE IN AN AROUND THE
MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A PLUME OF DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY PUSHING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN NH THROUGH THE SUNDAY
EVENING HOURS. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER
THAN SATURDAY, TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
COAST AND INTERIOR. UPPER 70S SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. PERHAPS MORE NOTICEABLE WOULD BE THE LOWER DEWPOINT
TEMPS, RESULTING IN RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE,
SOME WELCOME RELIEF AFTER A HOT WEEK.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST, SW FLOW AHEAD OF A WAVE OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE TO REPLACE THE EXITING DRY AIRMASS
MONDAY. THE ABSENCE OF FORMER ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL PRESENT COOLER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THESE TWO DAYS FEATURE A LARGE
SPREAD IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES, WITH TEMPS GREATER THAN 85
UNLIKELY FOR MOST OF THE CWA. THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE WILL
UNDERGO SOME STRENGTHENING, BUT OVERALL WILL REMAIN BROAD AND ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FORCE A STRATIFORM RAIN
SHIELD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY, CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS THERE IS STILL EQUAL
WEIGHTS AMONGST GLOBAL MODELS ON HOW FAR NORTH OR SOUTH THIS
SETS UP. AT TIME OF WRITING, THE BETTER CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN
A QUARTER INCH OF QPF IS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH FROM MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM CLEARS EAST TUESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WARM TOWARDS THE UPPER 80S FOR LATE WEEK. ALSO POSSIBLE WILL BE
A COLD FRONT NEARING THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON
TIMING, THIS COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AREA THURSDAY EVENING OR EVEN FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, A COUPLE OF
STORMS COULD BRING TEMPO IFR RESTRICTIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE CHANCE IS LOW, HAVE ADDED VCSH MENTION FOR THE
NH TERMINALS AS CHANCES APPEAR SOMEWHAT HIGHER THERE.
OUTLOOK:
REST OF SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. TEMPO IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IF A SHOWER OR STORM PASSES OVER ANY TERMINAL IN THE
AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES APPEAR LOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS, EXCEPT VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP
AT LEB AND HIE.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR LIKELY W/ NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AND CLOUDS SOUTH TO NORTH IN THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH POSSIBLE,
OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT: CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. MVFR
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: RAIN DEPARTS EAST, WITH IMPROVING CIG IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. VFR LIKELY.
WEDNESDAY: VFR LIKELY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE IN THE REGION.
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WATERS WILL SEE PRIMARILY A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE TURNING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. .
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. BROAD LOW PRES EXITING THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE OVER
NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS EXITS EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT LONG TERM CLIMATE SITES...
JULY 3RD
AUG 94 (2002)
PWM 95 (2002)
CON 102 (1966)
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-033.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-
018>020-023-033.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ013-014-021-
022-024>028.
NH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NHZ004>015.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/CORNWELL/EKSTER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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