414  
FXUS61 KGYX 060014  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
714 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2023  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST  
INTO THE ATLANTIC WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA  
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT,  
ALTHOUGH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND  
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. THERE WILL BE  
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN  
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES NEW  
ENGLAND. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TOWARDS THE END  
OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
710 PM...A BROAD, BUT WEAKENING AREA OF WAA ALOFT WILL CONTINUE  
TO SPILL MOSTLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT,  
BEFORE A COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN THE MORNING. TEMPS WON'T REALLY  
CHANGE TOO MUCH OVERNIGHT, THEY, MIGHT FALL A FEW DEGREES IN THE  
S AND W THIS EVENING, AND MAYBE RISE A BIT IN NE ZONES, WHERE  
THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES AND EARLY RAD COOLING RIGHT AFTER  
SUNSET, BUT OVERALL CLOSE TO STEADY TEMPS, ESPECIALLY AFTER  
MIDNIGHT.  
 
PREVIOUSLY...A MOSTLY CLOUDY NIGHT IS IN STORE BUT WITH ABOVE  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES  
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL  
PASSAGE FOR MOST BUT SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE  
LIKELY. LOOK FOR LOWS MAINLY IN THE 20S, WITH A FEW LOWER 30S  
FAR SOUTH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN SKY COVER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. NWLY WIND GUSTS  
AROUND 25 MPH ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL PLAIN LATE IN THE DAY AS  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. HIGHS WILL BE WELL ABOVE  
NORMAL, MAINLY IN THE 40S THANKS MOSTLY TO DOWNSLOPING WINDS.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY CRESTS OVER THE REGION BY LATER MONDAY  
NIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN LOWS  
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
OVERVIEW: TWO PRIMARY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE LONG TERM  
OVER A PERIOD OF WHICH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO  
ABOVE NORMAL. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT  
AND QUICK MOVING, BUT THE SECOND COULD BRING MORE PRECIPITATION  
THAT MAY BE OF THE WINTRY MIX VARIETY.  
 
DETAILS: THE BULK OF TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SHOULD  
BE MOSTLY SUNNY, WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE LATE  
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE DUE TO AN ADVANCING TROUGH ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES AND ENTERING NEW ENGLAND IN THE EVENING. TROUGH  
AMPLITUDE DECREASES AS IT ADVANCES EAST, BUT MAINTAINS SPEED AS  
IT TRAVERSES THE REGION. THIS LIKELY MEANS OVERALL LESSENING OF  
QPF OUTPUT, BUT LIFT WILL REMAIN AMPLE ON THE LEADING EDGE AS  
EASTERLY JET ALOFT CREATES FAVORABLE DYNAMICS WITH SLOWER SW  
WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO REMINDS ME  
SLIGHTLY OF A LIGHT SNOW EVENT THAT BROUGHT 3” OF SNOW TO THE  
MIDCOAST LAST WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE LESS CONVERGENCE DUE  
TO LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING THE COAST VS. STRENGTHENING IN THE  
GULF OF MAINE. IN ANY CASE, THINK THIS SYSTEM HAS A CHANCE TO  
SURPRISE WITH SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS, CENTRAL NH, INTO THE  
FOOTHILLS OF MAINE, ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO NBM QPF OUTPUT. LACK  
OF DEEPER MOISTURE, SNOW RATIOS, AND RESIDENCE TIME WILL LIMIT  
SNOW PRODUCTIVITY TOWARDS THE COAST AND SOUTHERN NH...BUT COULD  
STILL PROVIDE IN A WINTRY MIX. GFS/NAM PROFILES DISPLAY A WARM  
NOSE BEING ADVECTED IN BY THE MID AND LOW LEVEL JETS, WHICH  
COULD EVEN BRING THE CHANCE FOR RIMED SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN  
HERE.  
 
DRY AIR REPLACES WHAT MOISTURE MOVED THROUGH WITH THE TROUGH BY  
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY CONTINUE INTO  
MID AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS UPWIND TOWARDS THE  
QUEBEC BORDER. INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS  
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERN NH,  
POSSIBLY CURING ANY OF THE MORNING FREEZING PRECIP WOES BY MID  
TO LATE MORNING.  
 
NEXT NOTABLE SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY. THIS ONE WILL HAVE A MORE  
STRAIGHT SHOT OF PWAT ARRIVING FROM THE SW AND UP THE EAST  
COAST AS LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WITH NO  
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MASS TO CLEAR OUT THE WARM AIR IN THE  
MID LEVELS, AN INITIAL PERIOD SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA BEFORE  
THE CHANCE OF MIXING WITH SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. IN ADDITION,  
ANTICIPATE THAT COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE COULD BE DAMMED UP  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND FOOTHILLS. THIS COULD  
PROLONG THE PERIOD OF SNOW OR SLEET VS. RAIN/FREEZING RAIN.  
THIS, ALONG WITH TIMING TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, BUT  
CONDITIONS MAY BE SLICK FOR THE THURSDAY EVENING COMMUTE INTO  
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
UPPER AND MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE INTO FRIDAY, WITH A LARGE  
PLUME OF DRY AIR MOVING IN TO QUELL REMAINING PRECIP. MODEL  
SIMULATED WV IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS WELL. HOWEVER THESE  
STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL ALSO BE PART OF A BROADENING BAROCLINIC  
LEAF FOR A SYSTEM LOOKING TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AHEAD  
OF A AMPLIFIED TROUGH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY  
NIGHT. GUSTY SFC WINDS AT COASTAL TERMINALS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
LONG TERM...VFR TUESDAY, WITH LOWERING CEILINGS IN THE EVENING.  
MVFR WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF  
LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT. IFR PROBABILITIES ARE GREATEST ALONG THE ME  
COAST AND INLAND TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. SN AND PL MAY ACCOMPANY  
THESE RESTRICTIONS. CONDITIONS TREND VFR FOR WEDNESDAY AND WED  
NIGHT. ANOTHER SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO  
FRIDAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR MORE PROLONGED CONDITIONS MENTIONED  
ABOVE.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS DIMINISH BY EARLY MONDAY. HOWEVER, A  
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE COAST WILL AID IN A  
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF NORTHERLY  
GALES LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM...WINDS TURN ONSHORE AND THEN SW TUESDAY, INCREASING  
TO SCA CRITERIA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS BRIEF AS THEY WANE WED  
MORNING SHIFTING NW ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. WAVE HEIGHTS RUN  
4 TO 5 FT THROUGH WED. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE WATERS  
THURSDAY NIGHT, AS INTERIOR LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE  
GREAT LAKES.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.  
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR  
ANZ150>152-154.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ151.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...  
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/EKSTER  
SHORT TERM...EKSTER  
LONG TERM...CORNWELL  
AVIATION...  
MARINE...  
 
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