693
FXUS61 KGYX 231045
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
645 AM EDT MON MAR 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR EDITS TO POPS WITH THIS UPDATE BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SLIPPERY TRAVEL EXPECTED IN SPOTS EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW IS ALSO
POSSIBLE NEAR THE NH/MA BORDER DURING THIS TIME AS WELL AS LOW
PRESSURE SCOOTS TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR AN IMPACTFUL
SNOW SEEM LOW AT THIS TIME AS THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES IN PLACES OVER SOUTHERN NH.
2. EXPECT AN ACTIVE MID TO LATE WORK WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES AROUND OR A BIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL AID IN
PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH AN INVERTED
TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE DEPARTING SFC LOW DEVELOPING. THIS WILL
HELP INCREASE SNOW SHOWER CHANCES AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS
LOOKS TO BE ESPECIALLY TRUE, ESPECIALLY IN NH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH MOST CAMS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE
INVERTED TROUGH WILL FORM IN N-S FASHION THERE. THIS WILL ACT TO
ORGANIZE SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES, POSSIBLY
AFFECTING THE EVENING COMMUTE IN A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND IN THE
STATE. SLIPPERY TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE, WITH A CHANCE THAT AN
IMPACT-BASED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE
COMMUTE DEPENDING ON HOW ORGANIZED THE POTENTIAL BAND GETS.
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL IN A RELATIVELY NARROW N-S
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BATCH OF HEAVIER ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS MAY
ALSO FORM ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES NORTHWARD TO THE MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER, NO ONE IS OUT OF THE WOODS YET DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT
UNPREDICTABLE MESOSCALE NATURE TO THE SYSTEM.
THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATER IN EVENING. FAIR WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS NH AND MAINE. INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SQUALLS IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SNOW SQUALLS COULD LEAD TO SOME SLICK MOUNTAIN PASSES
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLES ARE PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT IN A MUCH BROADER LOW MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. WHILE MODELS ARE MORE CONFIDENT IN THE
EXISTENCE OF THE SYSTEM, MODELS ARE LESS CONFIDENT ON
PRECIPITATION TYPES. RAIN APPEARS MORE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE BUT MEASURABLE SNOWFALL COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN LIGHT SNOW,
FOG, OR DRIZZLE. CEILINGS WILL THEN LIFT TO MVFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT COULD PRODUCE IFR VISIBILITIES. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF IN WESTERN ME THIS EVENING AND THEN A LITTLE
LATER ACROSS NH. A GRADUAL RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY):
TUESDAY: VFR LIKELY.
TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY: BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE UNDER
SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT: IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW.
FRIDAY: IMPROVING TO VFR WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS LINGERING IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EASTERN WATERS.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN NEARLY CONTINUOUS SOUTHWESTERLY SCA
CONDITIONS. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION AND
STRENGTH OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE
GULF OF MAINE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/EKSTER/PALMER
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