316
FXUS61 KGYX 130534
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
134 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT AND CROSSES SUNDAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN
MONDAY AND WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
WATCHING SOME STRATUS DEVELOPING AND CREEPING UP THE CT RIVER
VALLEY...BUT OTHERWISE A PRETTY QUIET NIGHT. TEMPS HAVE DIPPED
INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS...BUT ENCROACHING
CLOUDS WILL HELP TO SLOW/STOP THAT DROP.
OTHERWISE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT IT WILL BE A
NICE AFTERNOON. COMFORTABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED EVEN WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. I CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER AND
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POP WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WITH CLOUD COVER AND CROSSING COLD FRONT I OPTED FOR NO MENTION
OF VALLEY FOG TONIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER...WESTERLY BREEZE...AND
SLIGHT DRY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE. HOWEVER
THIS IS PEAK RADIATION FOG SEASON AND IF WINDS GO CALM POST-
FRONTAL PASSAGE I COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED FOG.
COLD POOL OVERHEAD SUN WILL LEAD TO A MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE.
DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO POP OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THESE WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL TEND TO WEAKEN
AND BECOME EVEN MORE ISOLATED TOWARDS SUNSET.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
EVENING UPDATE...ONCE REMAINING SHOWERS ARE OUT OF THE REGION
SUNDAY EVENING, THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVERHEAD TO START THE WEEK. WITH IMPACTFUL WEATHER
UNLIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD, FOCUSED ON MONDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES AND COOLING THEM VS. DETERMINISTIC NBM SOLUTION.
THE HIGH WILL NEARLY BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD FOR THE NIGHT, WITH
CALM LOW LEVEL WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT AS COOL AS
RECENT NIGHT, TEMPS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S FOR MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR AND POTENTIALLY TO THE COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND WILL DOMINATE THE PATTERN
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM SUNNY
DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS. AN UPPER LOW MAY MIGRATE UP THE EAST COAST
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE AREA PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH
FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND PASSING FRONT MONDAY AND WILL
SETTLE OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING DAY TIME TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
CREEPING INTO THE 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHILE THE AIRMASS DOES
NOT LOOK QUITE AS COOL AS THE ONE THAT ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FROST
ACROSS THE NORTH THE PAST TWO NIGHTS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 40S WITH UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN VALLEYS. AN UPPER LOW
MAY MIGRATE UP THE EAST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK WHILE THERE IS A
LIMITED SIGNAL THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING APPRECIABLE RAINFALL.
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THIS MORNING IN
VALLEY FOG. SOME LOW CIGS MAY ALSO ATTEMPT TO SNEAK UP THE CT
RIVER VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE. DAYTIME MIXING WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTH...BUT SOME SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST AND
MAY TURN WINDS MORE EASTERLY IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE SEACOAST. TONIGHT SOME MARINE STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST...BUT OTHERWISE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
DISRUPT THE USUAL DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY FOG MOST NIGHTS THAT WILL LIKELY BRING
IFR/LIFR TO KLEB AND KHIE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THIS WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH THAT
SEA BREEZES SHOULD STILL ATTEMPT TO FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS MONDAY FOR LIGHT
ONSHORE WINDS DURING THE DAY TIME INTO MIDWEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CORNWELL/SCHROETER
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