279  
FXUS61 KGYX 251043  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
643 AM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A TROUGH RESIDES OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK BRINGING DAYTIME SHOWERS  
THROUGH MID WEEK. CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED AND RELATIVELY  
COOL INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE  
POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE  
MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/  
 
640AM UPDATE...DENSE FOG HAS SETTLED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN  
NH. SOME OBSERVATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE VIS IN THE REGION  
PROMPTED A SPS SEEING AS IT IS INTO THE MORNING COMMUTE. DON'T  
THINK FOG IS WIDESPREAD OR WILL LINGER ENOUGH TO WARRANT A  
DENSE FOG ADV AT THIS TIME. DENSE CLOUD MOVING IN FROM THE WEST  
WILL HELP THIN THIS FOG OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS, AS WELL AS  
DAYTIME HEATING.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
REMAINING OVERNIGHT FOG, MAINLY IN VALLEYS, WILL DISSIPATE  
THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPS REBOUND, BUT CLOUDS WILL TEND TO FILL  
BACK IN AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.  
 
DAYTIME HEATING, INTO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50, BELOW COOL  
AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CREATE FAIRLY STOUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES OF 6.5 – 7.5 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO  
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY  
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. COULD SEE A FEW RUN THROUGH  
THE LOWER KENNEBEC VALLEY AND ALSO THE MONADNOCKS AS WELL. ANY  
TIME THE FREEZING LEVEL IS THIS LOW WITH LIGHT CONVECTION, HAVE  
TO ALSO CONSIDER GRAUPEL PRODUCTION. HOWEVER, WARM AIR IN THE  
MID LEVELS CAPS CAPE DEPTH AND THEREFORE CHANCES TO SEE THAT AS  
A SERIOUS CONTENDER.  
 
SHOWER COVERAGE PEAKS MID AFTERNOON WITH HEATING, RETREATING TO  
THE MOUNTAINS COME THIS EVENING.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/  
 
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT, WITH SOME CLEARING COASTWARD OF THE  
INTERIOR. THIS SHOULD BRING TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID 20S FOR MUCH  
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAINS,  
AND WILL EVENTUALLY EXPAND INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH BROAD  
SFC LOW OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KICK OFF ANOTHER  
ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE REGION THROUGH WED AFTERNOON.  
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS KEPT ADDITIONAL LOW PRES OVER THE OPEN  
ATLANTIC EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE, THUS THINK MORE WIDESPREAD  
PRECIP FORCED BY THIS WILL FALL OFF THE COAST. DECIDED TO  
INSTEAD FOCUS ON TIMING SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO  
STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SHOULD AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE  
APPROACH THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON, THESE MAY BECOME MORE  
WIDESPREAD WITH BETTER PRECIP RATES.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
10 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
AS OF THIS TIME THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT NO  
SIGNIFICANT STORMS WILL AFFECT THE CWA THIS WEEK UNTIL PERHAPS  
THE WEEKEND.  
 
PREVIOUSLY...  
 
BEHIND THE WAVE WEDNESDAY, UPSLOPING PROBABLY CONTINUES SNOW  
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE  
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY BRINGING MOSTLY DRY  
CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. HIGHS REACH THE 40S WITH  
WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 MPH. ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING WAVE  
BRINGS YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
EARLY FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY FRIDAY,  
OTHER THAN LINGERING UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS  
ONCE AGAIN.  
 
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INCREASE OVER THE  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH STRONG SUPPORT IN THE  
ENSEMBLES FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS  
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER, IT'S MUCH TOO EARLY  
TO DETERMINE PRECIP TYPES AND AMOUNTS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
SHORT TERM...FOG WILL LIMIT VIS EARLY THIS MORNING, DISSIPATING  
A COUPLE HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED WITH HIE  
NEAR MVFR CEILINGS MUCH OF THE DAY. SKIES BECOME MORE BKN AS THE  
DAY GOES ON, WITH SHRASN PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON, THEN  
DISSIPATING INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE SHOWER BASES WILL  
BE AROUND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. VFR TONIGHT, WITH  
A SIMILAR SETUP FOR WEDNESDAY.  
 
LONG TERM...LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS COULD BRING  
RESTRICTIONS TO THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE  
IN LOCATION OR DEGREE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. MVFR SEEMS TO BE THE  
MOST PROBABLE, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF IFR ALONG COASTAL SITES.  
MOSTLY VFR THURSDAY-FRIDAY BUT ANOTHER WEAK WAVE COULD BRING A  
FEW RESTRICTIONS WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY  
FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND FLIGHT  
RESTRICTIONS INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SHORT TERM...SCA, MAINLY DUE TO WAVES, WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS  
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE WAVES LIKELY CONTINUE OFF THE  
ME COAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE  
REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH ANOTHER PASSING  
LOW OUTSIDE THE GULF OF MAINE TOMORROW.  
 
LONG TERM...WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH  
LATE WEEK WITH PERIODS OF SW OR NW WINDS AS A COUPLE OF WEAK  
FRONTS PASS THROUGH. THESE MAY ALSO PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF SCA  
CONDITIONS WITH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKING LIKE THE  
BETTER POTENTIAL. FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND LOOKS MORE ONSHORE AND  
THEN MORE SOUTHERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE  
APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ154.  
 
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL  
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL  
LONG TERM...COMBS/EKSTER  
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