742
FXUS61 KGYX 221032
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EDT TUE OCT 22 2024
SYNOPSIS
ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, BUT THEY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT AT
THIS TIME IS LOOKING LIKE MORE OF A TEMPERATURE CHANGER THAN A
GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN. BEHIND THAT FRONT COOLER BUT NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL LIFT AROUND
SUNRISE AS DAYTIME HEATING TAKES OVER. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
S/WV TROF THRU THE MARITIMES THIS MORNING WILL POSITION A SUBTLE
BACKDOOR FRONT THRU THE FORECAST AREA. NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF WESTERN ME AND SEACOAST NH WILL LEAD TO TEMPS NEAR 70.
STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL...BUT THE WARMEST READINGS WILL BE OVER
INTERIOR NH WHERE MID 70S ARE LIKELY.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
TONIGHT WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE AS BACKDOOR FRONT STARTS TO LIFT
NORTH LIKE WARM FRONT. AS WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WATERS
CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO INCREASE NEAR THE COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY
BE THE FORCING MECHANISM FOR THE FOG/STRATUS THAT HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING FOR TONIGHT. I HAVE USED HREF GUIDANCE FOR
COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WED TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY.
WESTERN ME REBOUNDS IN THE 70S...WHILE PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH WILL
BE PUSHING THE UPPER 70S AGAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FRONT CROSSES THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RELIEF TO THE ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND
THE BETTER FORCING LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH. HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE FORECAST TOWARD THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND UP TO A TENTH
OR TWO OF AN INCH OF RAIN WHILE AMOUNTS QUICKLY DECREASE TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A PERIOD OF THE USUAL UPSLOPE CLOUDS
AND/OR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THURSDAY, BUT
OTHERWISE COOLER AND DRIER AIR FUNNELS IN BEHIND THE FRONT
RESULTING IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. GOOD MIXING AND A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALSO MAKE IT A
BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OF 20 TO 30 MPH (A
FEW UP TO 35 MPH), BUT THESE WILL BEGIN TO EASE BY LATE
AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SETTLE
OVERHEAD. SPEAKING OF WHICH, THAT MAY SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT, AND I HAVE GONE A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE
NBM WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.
THE HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, BUT THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY
GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THAT
WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH NEW ENGLAND EITHER LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. POTENTIAL FOR MORE IN THE
WAY OF RAINFALL EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL AMOUNTS
STILL LOOK LIGHT WITH MOST MEMBERS WITHIN THE GFS/ECMWF
DEPICTING LESS THAN 0.25" ACROSS THE AREA.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PASSES, SATURDAY COULD BE A
BREEZY DAY, BUT WITH WHAT MODELS ARE SHOWING NOW SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE BREEZIER OF THE TWO DAYS WITH GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF MIXING DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT. THE
MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE AREAS TO THE
SOUTH LOOK MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PATTERN OF COLD
ADVECTION AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH AN UPPER TROUGH STILL
PRESENT, A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE BEEN SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS,
ESPECIALLY IF FROUDE NUMBERS END UP BEING HIGH ENOUGH. THE
MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN FOR
MONDAY OFFERING A DRY START TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG AND LOCAL LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU
SUNRISE AT LEB. THEN WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
AND WED DURING THE DAY. ONSHORE WINDS TONIGHT WILL RETURN DEEPER
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. AN AREA OF FOG/STRATUS MAY FORM
ALONG THE COAST WHERE WINDS CONVERGE. AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PSM NORTH THRU AUG AND RKD.
LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRINGS A
ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE REGION, AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS RIGHT NOW LOOK LIMITED TO MAINLY MVFR TO LOCALIZED
IFR. THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY VFR (EXCEPT HIE AND MVFR
CEILINGS THERE) WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KT (A
FEW UP TO 30 KT) DURING THE DAY. MAINLY VFR ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNING, BUT ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND RESTRICTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THRU WED. LATE IN THE PERIOD SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE
AND GUSTS NEAR 25T KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 5 FT ARE
POSSIBLE. FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN
ONSHORE...MOST LIKELY NEAR THE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
LONG TERM...THE FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST BEYOND SCA LEVELS INTO
THURSDAY.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. FLOW QUICKLY RETURNS TO SOUTHERLY
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE WATERS SOMETIME ON SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND AGAIN
BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN THE WINDS SHIFT TO WEST TO NORTHWEST.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...COMBS
AVIATION...LEGRO
MARINE...LEGRO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page