231
FXUS61 KGYX 301353
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
953 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INCREASED POPS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HAVE ALSO BUMPED UP SKY COVER WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST TO LOWER BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN MONDAY.
2. AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BRINGS MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING BEFORE A POTENT H5 S/WV TROF AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
BRINGS AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE LIMITED DAYTIME INSTABILITY, THE
COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS THANKS TO DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR
GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITHIN ANY STRONGER CELLS.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT NORTH-CENTRAL NH AND ME ARE
THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCATIONS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH
ACTIVITY BEGINNING ACROSS THE NORTH POTENTIALLY AROUND NOON
BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. IT WILL OTHERWISE BE A BREEZY DAY WITH WSW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25 MPH WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WANE TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S AND 50S. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VALLEYS AND IN AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE EARLIER RAINFALL.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEK, WHILE NEW
ENGLAND LOOKS TO REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, AND
CLOSER TO A DEEPENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS
BRINGS A MORE UNSETTLED AND COOLER PATTERN, WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
RIDING AROUND THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
THE FIRST SYSTEM LIKELY ARRIVES DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA, WHILE A WARM FRONT LOOKS
LIKELY TO STALL ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SERVE TO FOCUS MORE REPEATED
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT LEAST AT THIS POINT, MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON
TUESDAY.
A FRESH WAVE OF MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS
NORTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. BY THIS TIME, WHAT'S LEFT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO MAKE IT'S CLOSEST PASS TO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, WITH BOTH FEATURES BRINGING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP.
THEN BY THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIMEFRAME THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS
CERTAIN. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE TROUGH CONSOLIDATES MORE SOUTH OF
NOVA SCOTIA, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO NEW ENGLAND
WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. BUT IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE THE TROUGH
REMAINS MORE ELONGATED, KEEPING THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ONGOING
INTO THE BEGINNING OF LABOR DAY WEEKEND. ON THIS EVENING'S EURO AND
AIFS SUITES A SLIGHTLY WARMER SOLUTION WAS SHOWN OVER THE 12Z RUNS,
BUT IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW WHETHER OR NOT THIS IS A TREND YET.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORM AHEAD OF A SAGGING COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE NORTH. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
ANY CONVECTION, BUT MOST LIKELY THIS WILL BE CONFINED TO A HIE
TO RKD LINE AND NORTH. CONDITIONS RETURN TO WIDESPREAD VFR
TONIGHT, BUT VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR ANY AREAS
THAT DO RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
MONDAY WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS GIVING WAY TO A SEA BREEZE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE, WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: MVFR MORE LIKELY AT MOST TERMINALS WITH SHOWERS.
MARINE
SW WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 KTS AND SEAS OF 1-3 FT. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE MONDAY
MORNING. A SEA BREEZE WILL THEN BRING SE ONSHORE FLOW LATER
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.
OUTLOOK:
HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE WATERS TO START THE WEEK WITH FAIR
CONDITIONS. A WARM FRONT THEN STALLS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FRESHENING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/SCHROETER/TUBBS
AVIATION...LEGRO
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