493
FXUS61 KGYX 241123
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
623 AM EST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
ONGOING WINTER HEADLINES REMAIN UNCHANGED WITH AN AXIS OF SNOW
REMAINING OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW ENDS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT. A STRONG
COLD FRONT CROSSES ON CHRISTMAS BRINGING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS AND GUSTY NW WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY AND HELPS SUPPRESS THE NEXT SYSTEM
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A MORE ROBUST SYSTEM APPROACHES SUNDAY
BRINGING CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION INTO
MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
6 AM UPDATE:
BAND OF HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM THE COAST NEAR CAPE
ELIZABETH, OVER TO THE BRISTOL AREA AND UP THROUGH LEWISTON TO
CHESTERVILLE. THAT BEING SAID, WE ARE FINALLY STARTING TO SEE A
LITTLE BIT OF MOVEMENT IN THE PREVIOUSLY STATIONARY BAND. THIS
HAD BEEN ADVERTISED BY MANY OF THE CAMS AS THE LOW FINALLY
STARTS TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WATERS. THUS FAR, THE
HIGHEST TOTALS REPORTED HAVE BEEN IN THE LEWISTON AUBURN IN THE
12 TO 15 INCH RANGE. THE INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL SHOULD START TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT A FEW MORE INCHES
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
PREVIOUSLY:
KEY MESSAGES:
-SNOW ENDS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THIS MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ME.
-GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH SOME BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION:
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A NORLUN TROF WILL SLOWLY EXIT OFFSHORE
TODAY, BRINGING AN END TO THE SNOW IN MOST LOCATIONS BY LATE THIS
MORNING BUT IT MAY LINGER INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN ME. THE LATEST WPC SNOWBAND PROBABILITY
TRACKER INDICATES THAT SNOWFALL RATES BETWEEN 1-2"/HR WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-MORNING FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE ME
FOOTHILLS, AND THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AREAWIDE THOUGH BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH 30S SOUTH. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY AS
THE LOW PULLS OFFSHORE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN THIS EVENING BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE
TOWARDS DAWN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER
20S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
OVERVIEW: ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THURSDAY BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AND GUSTY NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PRESS INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS NH AND FAR WESTERN
MAINE. WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND A SECONDARY LOW
ATTEMPTS TO FORM NEAR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES:
*GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 40
MPH LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS CHILLS WILL APPROACH
-20F ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES AND DROP TO -5F TO -15F SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY MORNING.
*CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY DURING A PERIOD OF ELEVATED TRAVEL AT THE END OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT UPWARD TREND IN MOISTURE WITH A COLD
FRONT THAT CROSSES CHRISTMAS DAY THAT HAS RESULTED IN AN UPWARD
TREND IN POPS AND QPF. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO WITH LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SNOW SHOWERS WILL PROGRESS TO THE COAST. THE
FRONT EXITS OFFSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY NW WINDS
RAMPING UP THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. LATEST BUFKIT PROFILES
SUGGEST FAVORABLE MIXING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR
MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF AROUND 35 KTS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF COLDER AIR AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BRING SUB ZERO WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY. WIND CHILLS IN
THE MOUNTAINS COULD REACH COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF
-20F.
THE LATEST AVAILABLE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STAY SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE LATEST NBM POPS TOP OUT AROUND 50% ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND
DROP OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER LIKELY PREVAILS
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH SENDING A POTENT TROUGH THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACKING INTO SE
CANADA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AHEAD OF THIS LOW LOOKS TO BE
WELL POSITIONED TO HOLD COLD AIR IN PLACE WITH MODELS ALSO
SUGGESTING A SECONDARY LOW MAY FORM NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
AIDING IN MAINTAINING COLD AIR. AT THIS TIME RANGE P-TYPES AND
AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN WHILE THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING AS IT
LIKELY COINCIDES WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH TRAVEL VOLUME.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...SN AND IFR-LIFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST 15Z AT MOST TAF SITES BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING LATER
TODAY BACK TO VFR. KPWM, KAUG, AND KRKD WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST
TO RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS, WHICH MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL ROUGHLY
21Z. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 12Z AND PERSIST THROUGH
21Z WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT SOME MVFR-IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KHIE. NO LLWS IS ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM...-SHSN THURSDAY WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS
PARTICULARLY AT KHIE. NW WINDS WILL GUST 30-35 KTS THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR. VFR LIKELY PREVAILS FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS AND -SN MAY PUSH INTO SOUTHERN
NH FRIDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION BECOMES
INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE SUNDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE
OF THE BAYS THROUGH 18Z TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS IN THE BAYS.
SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS WITH 1-4 FT IN THE
BAYS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT 3-
5 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS.
LONG TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THURSDAY WITH
NW GUSTING TO GALE FORCE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ007>009-023.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MEZ012>014-018>022-024>028-033.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NHZ001>003-005-007>010.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ004-
006.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-
153.
NEAR TERM...HARGROVE/TUBBS
SHORT TERM...TUBBS
LONG TERM...SCHROETER
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