299
FXUS61 KGYX 080000
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
700 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATE TO NEAR TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SNOW TAPERS OFF THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
BRING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING THIS AIRMASS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL
CREATE DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT. FROSTBITE CAN
BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER DIRECT SKIN EXPOSURE AT THESE VALUES.
2. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING MAY BE SUCH THAT IT IMPACTS THE EVENING COMMUTE ON
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WHILE MUCH OF THE SHARPER CONVERGENCE WITH ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY
AND SNOWFALL RATES SETTLED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY,
THERE WAS A NARROW CORRIDOR THAT SET UP. THIS WAS BETWEEN
MORNING ONSHORE FLOW AND THE ADVANCING FRONT FROM THE WEST. THIS
ENDED UP BEING THROUGH THE MERRIMACK VALLEY WHERE VISIBILITY WAS
A MILE OR LESS FOR MUCH OF THE MID MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE INCOMING FRONT ISN'T VERY 'CLEAN' IN REGARDS TO SATELLITE OR
RADAR PRESENTATION, BUT IT HAS BEEN NOTABLE IN THE WIND FIELD
AND ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR TO BRING AN END TO MODERATE SNOW
RATES. THE WINDING NATURE OF IT WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT SNOW GOING
ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN ME FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.
FOR THIS EVENING, NORTH WINDS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES PLUMMET.
THERE HASN'T BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING WIND CHILL VALUES GO, AND HEADLINES
REMAIN IN PLACE. TO THE WEST, WINDS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A BIT
ABOVE GUIDANCE, SO DID INCREASE OVERNIGHT WIND SPEEDS WHICH
AGAIN BRINGS SOME OF THE LOWER WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE
LOWLANDS. FORECAST WINDS DID LOWER FOR POINTS ALONG/NEAR THE
MAINE/CAN BORDER. THIS RESULTS IN VALUES BARELY MEETING ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THE REGION, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO REMOVE THE HAZARD
ALTOGETHER. COLDEST WIND CHILL VALUES OF 30 TO 40 BELOW WILL BE
FELT AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THROUGHOUT THE WHITES GIVEN THEIR
EXPOSURE TO STRONGER WINDS.
DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY HAVE TRENDED 'WARMER' BUT A DAY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S WITH A BRISK WIND WON'T FEEL MUCH
DIFFERENT. THIS COMBO OF TEMP AND WIND RESULTS IN WIND CHILL
VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO THROUGH THE
DAY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, WINDS CONTINUE WITH THE COLD AIRMASS STILL
OVERHEAD. THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HAVE DEPARTED, BUT
THERE WILL STILL BE AN EMBEDDED WAVE THAT PIVOTS THROUGH THE
EXITING CYCLONIC FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP SUN NIGHT BREEZY, BUT NOT
EXPECTING THE SAME MAGNITUDE OF GUSTS LIKE TONIGHT. CAN SEE THE
NEED FOR ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS
WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND FOOTHILLS TO AND 20S BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTH/WESTERN VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SHORTWAVE TROF/CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE REGION TUE. WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT WILL SUPPORT LIFT IN A SATURATED SNOW
GROWTH REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BAND OF SNOW TRANSLATING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON A ROUGHLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED AXIS. ABOUT 90 PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW
ACCUMULATION LESS THAN 4 INCHES, BUT THE CURRENT TIMING IS FOR
TUE EVENING. THIS COULD BE A TRICKY DURING THE COMMUTE,
ESPECIALLY AS WE LOSE ANY MELTING INFLUENCE OF THE SUN THRU THE
CLOUD COVER. I COULD SEE A NEED, IF THE TIMING REMAINS
CONSISTENT, FOR AN IMPACT- BASED ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
DUE TO ROADS BECOMING SNOW COVERED DURING A PEAK TRAVEL WINDOW.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH SUNDAY: CONDITIONS HAVE LARGELY IMPROVED TO VFR WITH VFR
LIKELY TO PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT HAS NOW CROSSED MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH GUSTY NW WINDS TO AROUND 20 TO 30 KTS,
CONTINUING SUNDAY. WINDS SLACKEN INTO SUNDAY EVENING, BUT STEADY
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE. OTHERWISE VFR.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR EXPECTED WITH WNW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS.
MONDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY: INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWERING CIGS BUT MOSTLY VFR
EXPECTED THRU EVENING.
TUESDAY NIGHT: AREAS OF IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.
WEDNESDAY: IFR CONDITIONS IMPROVING BUT MAY CONTINUE TO BE
LOCAL IFR OR LOWER IN SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING GALE CONDITIONS TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF COLD AIRMASS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS SLACKEN SUNDAY, BUT MAY AGAIN APPROACH GALE
COME SUNDAY EVENING FOR WATERS ALONG THE MIDCOAST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH MON. SOME LINGERING
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS
COME DOWN, AND COLD TEMPS DEPART THE REGION. OTHERWISE WINDS AND
SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012-013-018-019-033.
NH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ001>006-
009-010-012-013.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NHZ007-008-011-
015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/LEGRO/SCHROETER
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