309
FXUS61 KGYX 310637
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
237 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LARGELY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED. THE ONE CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING THE
REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY, BUT A WEAK INVERTED TROF IS
KEEPING AN AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS PERSISTENT OVER PARTS OF THE
WESTERN MAINE MTNS INTO THE LOWER ANDROSCOGGIN VALLEY. THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE FORCING
DRIFTS TOO FAR EAST.
AFTER THAT IT WILL BE LARGELY DRY THRU THE MIDPOINT OF THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS REALLY ONLY THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SAT AFTERNOONS.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE LATE SUN INTO MON. A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION. AT THIS TIME
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PLENTY OF MEMBERS INDICATING
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL, BUT THIS WOULD NOT BE THE FIRST TIME THIS
WARM SEASON THE RUG HAS BEEN PULLED AT THE LAST MINUTE. I DO
THINK PRECIP IS LIKELY, BUT THE AMOUNTS I WILL LEAN MORE
CONSERVATIVE. TIMING ALSO LOOKS LIKE WE AVOID PEAK SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY, SO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS RELATIVELY
LOW.
TEMPS OVERALL THRU THE MIDDLE PART OF THE NEXT WEEK LOOK
SEASONABLE, THOUGH SUN NIGHT AND MAYBE MON NIGHT OVERNIGHT
READINGS COULD BE ON THE MILD AND MUGGY SIDE.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT: MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH CONTINUED GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN THE REMAINING PATCHY IFR/MVFR CIGS EXPECTED
THRU MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT PATCHY VALLEY FOG DEVELOPS
THRU SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL INCLUDE LEB AND HIE. WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AFTER
SUNRISE WITH SEA BREEZE LIKELY TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON,
BUT ONLY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. VFR AGAIN OVERNIGHT
WITH THE LOCAL IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. BRIEF LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THE EXTENDED. AS A FRONT APPROACHES SUN, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE WELL OUTSIDE OF
THE BAYS, BUT GUIDANCE DOES NOT POINT TOWARDS A HIGH CHANCE OF
SCA CONDITIONS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT INCREASING MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING SUN
NIGHT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEGRO
AVIATION...LEGRO
MARINE...LEGRO
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