358  
FXUS61 KGYX 221031  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
631 AM EDT MON JUL 22 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY  
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT.  
THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH WAVES  
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING ROUNDS OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDER MOST DAYS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEEKEND FOR A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
630 AM UPDATE...MINOR UPDATE TO SKY COVER AND TEMPERATURES TO  
REFLECT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.  
 
PREVIOUSLY...  
 
A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED WEST TO EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WILL  
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH  
PRESSURE PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE  
A FOCUS FOR CLOUDS WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS EXPECTED  
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM  
THE 70S NORTH TO MID 80S SOUTH WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR  
THE COAST AS WIND WILL BECOME ONSHORE BY MID MORNING.  
 
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST  
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE  
MIDWEST. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS THE UPPER LOW WILL  
TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE TODAY WITH THE SHORT WAVE HELPING TO  
CARVE OUT A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD  
TO THE STATIONARY FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING AND INTO  
TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. AS THIS FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THERE  
WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDER  
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH BY THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
 
 
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT SPREADING  
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA. PWATS WILL BE ON  
THE INCREASE AND WILL APPROACH 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES BY TUESDAY  
MORNING. THESE PWATS COMBINED WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WARM  
CLOUD DEPTHS GREATER THAN 12KFT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR  
HEAVY DOWNPOURS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THE 00Z HREF  
HIGHLIGHTS AREAS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LAKES REGIONS OF ME  
AND NH WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVIER DOWNPOURS ALTHOUGH  
THE 3 HOUR MAX FROM THE HREF KEEPS AMOUNTS BELOW FFG.  
 
THE TROUGH DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL HELP  
SPAWN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT LATE  
TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE WILL KEEPS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
EMBEDDED THUNDER GOING INTO EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH POPS  
DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE 00Z HREF  
MEAN SUGGESTS SOME AREAS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WILL PICK UP OVER  
AN INCH OF RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE  
CONVECTIVE PROCESSES WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED  
HEAVIER AMOUNTS. ALL IN ALL, THIS LOOKS TO BE BENEFICIAL  
RAINFALL AS THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE FOCUSED ALONG AREAS WHERE  
3 HOUR FFG IS GREATER THAN 3 INCHES. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL  
GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S AND CAMS SUGGEST TUESDAY WON'T BE A  
COMPLETE WASHOUT WITH MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A DRYING TREND  
DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
OVERVIEW: THE 500 MB PATTERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD IS DOMINATED  
BY A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CONUS AND A DEEP TROUGH  
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART. A RIDGE ALSO REMAINS FIRMLY PLANTED  
OVER THE ATLANTIC, LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN THE TRANSITION ZONE.  
THIS WILL BRING ABOUT UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK  
AS MOISTURE BUILDS UNDER THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND SEVERAL UPPER  
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE ABLE TO ROTATE THROUGH OUR AREA. IT IS  
NOT UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT THIS PATTERN BEGINS TO  
BUDGE AND RIDGING IS ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEAST.  
 
IMPACTS: MINIMAL  
* PWATS AROUND 1.75 INCHES DURING OUR PERIOD OF UNSETTLED  
WEATHER THIS WEEK MAY LEAD TO DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED  
FLOODING. CURRENT GUIDANCE FROM WPC HAS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA  
IN A MARGINAL FLASH FLOOD RISK THURSDAY.  
 
DETAILS: SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT  
WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. SHOWER ACTIVITY THEN BECOMES MORE  
WIDESPREAD TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE  
PUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE  
IN THE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN ZONES.  
 
SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO START WITH SOME SHOWERS  
AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED NEARBY.  
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD LATE  
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN BECOMES MORE ISOLATED IN THE  
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS AN APPROACHING TROUGH BEGINS TO  
PUSH THE STALLED BOUNDARY OUT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ONCE AGAIN  
KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES CAPPED IN THE 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES  
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 60S. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE  
FOR A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS A WARM FRONT PRIMES THE  
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD  
FRONT. CLOUDS LOOK TO BE AMPLE, BUT THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND  
BREAKS OF SUN WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO FUEL SOME  
POTENTIALLY STRONG STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ALREADY  
SUGGESTING CAPE VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH WELL  
MIXED TEMPERATURE PROFILES SIGNALING STRONG WINDS BEING A  
POSSIBLE THREAT. CSU MACHINE LEARNING PROBABLILITES ARE KEYING  
IN ON THIS AS WELL, HIGHLIGHTING OUR AREA WITH A 5% SEVERE  
THREAT. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVERHEAD AND PWATS REMAINING  
AROUND 1.75 INCHES, ANY STORM IS ALSO LIKELY TO CONTAIN HEAVY  
RAIN AND POSE A FLOODING THREAT AS WELL. WE WILL BE KEEPING A  
CLOSE EYE ON HOW THESE NUMBERS TREND OVER THE COMING DAYS. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND  
UPPER 70S TO THE NORTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS TAPER OFF HEADING  
TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE  
60S.  
 
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SETTLE DOWN FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS SEEM  
TO AGREE THAT ENOUGH FORCING WILL REMAIN NEARBY TO KEEP A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT A DRIER AIRMASS  
WILL BE QUICKLY MOVING IN. THE GENERAL STORY FOR THE WEEKEND  
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES ON A  
WARMING TREND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...VFR LIKELY PREVAILS FOR MUCH OF TODAY WITH CLOUDS  
INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.  
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TONIGHT FROM THE MVFR TO IFR/LIFR  
AS CIGS LOWER AND RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.  
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING THE RISK FOR FOG.  
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH  
SOME IMPROVEMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN SHOWERS BECOME LESS  
WIDESPREAD.  
 
LONG TERM...CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AS  
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. EACH AFTERNOON WILL COME  
WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. WINDS WILL BE  
GENERALLY EASTERLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING  
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY. WIND  
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 5-10KTS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY  
THROUGH TUESDAY. A FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS  
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND  
THE FRONT. THERE WILL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT  
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG.  
 
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE NOT  
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2-4FT WITH WIND  
GUSTS AROUND 10- 15KTS. WINDS WILL BE LARGELY ONSHORE THROUGH  
THIS PERIOD. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THROUGH FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...SCHROETER  
SHORT TERM...SCHROETER  
LONG TERM...BARON  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab ME Page
The Nexlab NH Page Main Text Page