844
FXUS61 KGYX 191029
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
629 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE MORNING UPDATE AS RAIN
CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH TODAY WITH
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE CANADIAN BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON.
2. ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT MAY LEAD TO AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.
3. A COOLER AND UNSETTLED PATTERN GRADUALLY MODERATES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE LATEST ROUND OF NWP GUIDANCE AND NBM
WITH REGARDS TO THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT CROSSES TODAY.
OCCLUDING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF JAMES BAY WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED INTO
THE AFTERNOON. A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TAKE ON A
SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ALONG THE
FRONT. TEMPERATURES AT 925 MB WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND POINTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS TO VALLEY FLOORS AND
COUPLE INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. BELOW FREEZING AIR AT 925
MB WILL ADVECT ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AND SOME SNOW CANNOT BE
RULED OUT SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS ALTHOUGH SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
ACCUMULATE. HIGHS TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND MID DAY IN
THE 40S WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END THIS EVENING WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS ADVECTING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
STORM TOTAL QPF WILL GENERALLY BE 05 TO 0.75 INCHES WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 20S NORTH TO LOW 30S SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BEHIND SUNDAY'S COLD FRONT, THE WEEK WILL START ON A CHILLY NOTE.
700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO -20C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED
WITH UPPER-LEVEL TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF -2.5 SD FROM CLIMATOLOGY
PER THE NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE, IT WILL BE UNUSUALLY COLD
ALOFT. REGARDLESS, THE HIGH APRIL SUN ANGLE SHOULD STILL HELP
DAYTIME SURFACE TEMPERATURES GET INTO THE 40S.
MONDAY'S FORECAST HAD PREVIOUSLY LOOKED DRY, BUT NEW GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING A SIGNAL FOR SOME SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE SHOWERS.
WITH SUCH A COLD AIRMASS, IT WON'T TAKE A LOT TO GET CLOUDS TO BUILD
VERTICALLY AS THE SUN HEATS THE SURFACE. IN FACT, SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING MODEST INSTABILITY OF ~100 J/KG SBCAPE WITH VERY STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 9.0 K/KM. IN ADDITION, A SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX WILL SWING THROUGH, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE
OF LIFT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH SNOW OR POSSIBLY
EVEN GRAUPEL GIVEN THESE INGREDIENTS. ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL
BE SCATTERED AND QUICK-HITTING AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER A HARD FREEZE ON TUESDAY MORNING, A MODERATING TREND SHOULD
COMMENCE AS WE HEAD DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY CURRENTLY LOOKS
DRY WITH SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MONDAY'S SHORTWAVE, BUT WITH
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR STILL UPSTAIRS, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS.
A DIFFICULT-TO-TIME SHORTWAVE BRINGS THE NEXT WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY, BUT WITH POPS ONLY HOVERING AROUND 15-
30%, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS. REGARDLESS, LIGHT
SNOW IS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN ZONES GIVEN COLD AIR
LINGERING. HEIGHT RISES LATE IN THE WEEK SUGGEST TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND CLOSE TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH 50S IN THE FORECAST FOR LATE
WEEK HIGHS CURRENTLY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL CONTINUE BRINGING IFR/LIFR ACROSS ALL
SITES EXCEPT LEB AND HIE WHICH MAY HANG ON TO MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. RA WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
MORNING WITH RA PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH FG. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE MORNING WILL BECOME
NW WITH GUSTS UP 20 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF AND
LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS MONDAY, ESPECIALLY AT HIE. OTHERWISE MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NW WINDS AT 10-15 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWERING CEILINGS POSSIBLE
AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS AND MVFR ARE POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 KTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 5 FEET. THE FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH NW WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KTS AND SEAS
4-5 FEET. BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/HARGROVE/SCHROETER
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