185
FXUS61 KGYX 221130
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
630 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST AND THEN SETTLES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK SYSTEM
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A
SERIES OF WEAK SYSTEMS WILL CROSS THE NORTHEAST NEXT WEEK BRING
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
630 AM...MINOR UPDATE TO REFLECT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREVIOUSLY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL NOSE INTO NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. THE PERSISTENT GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WILL RELAX
RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A MIX
OF SUN AND CLOUDS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SKIES TURNING MOSTLY
SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO
MID 30S SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS QUEBEC TONIGHT BRINGING
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
CLOUD COVER SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SCATTERED SUNDAY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MOUNTAINS AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA. UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS TO LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NORTH TO MID 30S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
LONG TERM UPDATE...WARMUP STILL ON TRACK INTO MIDWEEK, ACTIVE
PATTERN, BUT FAR FROM FINAL SOLUTIONS. POLAR JET AND SOUTHERN STREAM
LOOK TO REMAIN OUT OF SYNC THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING EACH. ENSEMBLE PLUMES REFLECT THIS WITH A
BULK OF MEMBERS REMAINING BELOW TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF THROUGH
MON-THURS. WHILE QPF LOOKS LIMITED, DO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON PRECIP
TYPES AS WARMER AIR IS INTRODUCED.
PREVIOUSLY...
OVERVIEW...A SERIES OF TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE EVENTS WILL LACK DEEP
MOISTURE.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO RUN ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK ONCE
AGAIN IN MOST AREAS. BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRIGGER SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE PTYPE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.
12Z MODELS AND LATEST ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGEST A STRONGER TROUGH WILL
CROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR CYCLOGENESIS OFF
THE EAST COAST. THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM MAY BE TOO FAR OFFSHORE TO
IMPACT NEW ENGLAND. YET ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS TOO WILL BE LIMITED IN MOISTURE
BUT NEVERTHELESS HAVE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
REGION. COLDER AIR MAY POTENTIALLY RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR TODAY WITH WINDS ON A DOWNWARD TREND.
CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT
WILL LIKELY BRING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT KHIE. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT REMAINING TAF SITES AS SKIES BECOME
OVC. CLOUDS SCATTERED SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY FOR MAINLY
VFR WHILE KHIE MAY SEE MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
LONG TERM...SEVERAL TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE
REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR HIE TO OCCASIONALLY DROP DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL DAY BREAK WITH WINDS
AND SEAS THEN EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. A SYSTEM
CROSSING QUEBEC TONIGHT WILL BRING INCREASING SW FLOW WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG THE OUTER WATERS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
NIGHT. A DEVELOPING GRADIENT AHEAD OF A SYSTEM ON MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING ANOTHER PERIOD SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...SCHROETER
LONG TERM...CANNON/CORNWELL
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