737
FXUS61 KGYX 061025
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
625 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A CUT OFF LOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD TODAY, BRINING MORE RAINFALL.
SOME SHOWERS MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND A MINOR FLOODING RISK
MAY DEVELOP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN. RELATIVELY WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN, BUT
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MORE RAIN AND
COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
625 AM UPDATE...THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS STEADY SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. RAINFALL RATES
STAYED ON THE LIGHTER SIDE OVERNIGHT, SO NOT SEEING ANY
PROBLEMS, BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED AS RADAR SHOWS MORE SHOWERS LINED UP WITH THIS AREA
AND RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE DAY GOES ON. AREAS ON
THE RECEIVING END OF A LINE OF SHOWERS FOR A TIME IS WHAT WE
WILL SEE AS THE MOISTURE FEED SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST. OTHERWISE,
MINOR UPDATES TO ALIGN WITH OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* GENERALLY, RAIN RATES BY THEMSELVES DON'T APPROACH FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE, THUS THE FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES TO LOOK
ISOLATED TO LOCATIONS THAT HAPPEN TO SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN.
EARLIER SHOWERS HAVE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD FOG ALONG THE COAST
AND JUST INLAND. MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE JUST STARTING TO
ENTER SOUTH WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND AS THE CUT OFF LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD SO WILL THIS AXIS OF SHOWERS ALONG A
30-35KT LLJ. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BRING A
DIRECT FEED OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE DRIVING PWATS UP TO 1.25-1.40
INCHES THIS AFTERNOON SO THIS WILL HAVE HEAVIER SHOWERS
EMBEDDED. RAINFALL RATES IN THE LATEST HI- RES MODEL SUITE TOP
OUT AT AROUND 0.5 IN/HR WHICH ON ITS OWN WOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
CREATE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT, HOWEVER IF THESE NORTH- SOUTH
MOVING SHOWERS OF THAT MAGNITUDE WERE TO RUN OVER THE SAME
LOCATION MULTIPLE TIMES, SOME FLOODING ISSUES MAY START TO
DEVELOP. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THIS MIGHT
OCCUR AND THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY FLOODING, IT SEEMS
INAPPROPRIATE TO ISSUE A BROAD FLOOD WATCH AND WOULD MAKE MORE
SENSE TO TARGET LOCATIONS THAT BEGIN SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING TO BEGIN WITH SHORT FUSE ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IF
NEEDED. BETTER FORCING ARRIVES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING AS THE TRIPLE POINT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH WITH THE
OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL FURTHER
EXACERBATE LIFT AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE BEST WINDOW FOR THE
MOST CONSISTENT HEAVIER SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AS A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF MUCAPE WILL DEVELOP AS WELL. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RUN IN THE MID- TO UPPER 50S, WITH
SOME LOCATIONS THAT SEE BREAKS IN THE RAIN REACHING INTO THE LOW
60S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE FLOOD THREAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS THAT SAW HIGHER AMOUNTS DURING THE DAY.
TONIGHT: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT. THE AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD SO
WOULD EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVIER SHOWERS TO BECOME LESS COMMON NORTH
AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS, BUT CONTINUE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
AREAS THAT ALREADY RECEIVED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE DAY
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THIS MOISTURE MAKES ITS FINAL
PUSH. SOME OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS MAY STILL ALSO PRODUCE SOME
LIGHTING AS FORCING FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES, WITH A
COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES OF MUCAPE ALSO PRESENT. DRIER AIR BEGINS
TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND MAKE SHOWER COVERAGE MORE SCATTERED
OVERNIGHT. BY DAY BREAK MUCH OF THE AREA LOOKS RAIN FREE, BUT
FOG LIKELY FILLS IN AS SHOWERS TAPER OFF. ALL THIS LIKELY
RESULTS IN ANOTHER WARM NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW
50S.
WEDNESDAY: THE CUTOFF LOW MOVES OVERHEAD DURING THE DAY
WEDENSDAY ALONG WITH THE OCCLUDED FRONT PUSHING THROUGH, SO
FORCING WILL BE THERE FOR SHOWERS, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL
SOME CLEARING AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO WRAP IN. THE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY LIKELY ENDS UP IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AS THE AXIS OF
DRIER AIR SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MAINE IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH PWATS NOW UNDER AN INCH, SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP ARE LIKELY TO
BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE COMPARED TO TODAY. THE ULTIMATE RESULT
IS A WARMER AND MOSTLY DRIER DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. THE COAST LIKELY STAYS COOLER THANKS TO A
DEVELOPING SEABREEZE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
1045 PM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LATEST NBM WITH
UNSETTLED PATTERN LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. POPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AS THE NEXT SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
OVERVIEW...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THURSDAY. THE NEXT ONE IS HOT ON IT'S
HEALS THOUGH, DEEPENING AND MOVING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TO
NEW ENGLAND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE BROADENING
TROUGH LIKELY DEPARTS NEW ENGLAND BY LATE SUNDAY, WITH RIDGING
BUILDING IN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY DRIER AND WARMER, WITH POP UP
SHOWERS MORE COMMON IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH MORE SUNSHINE,
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO BE FOUND ALONG THE COAST WITH A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING, AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MORE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
BY FRIDAY, CONDITIONS TURN WETTER AND COOLER AGAIN AS A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE LIKELY MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS SYSTEM LIKELY LINGERS INTO SATURDAY
AS WELL. DETAILS ON JUST HOW MUCH RAIN SHOULD BE EXPECTED AND
THE PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE THESE CUT OFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW FEATURES.
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, BUT
TO WHAT DEGREE REMAINS UNCLEAR UNTIL WE HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON
THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. AT THIS POINT, THERE'S
DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT SUNDAY WILL BE DRIER
AND WARMER THAN SATURDAY, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUNSHINE. THIS TREND CONTINUES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AND
LIKELY BEGINNING A WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD FOG WILL CLEAR OUT AS SHOWERS ENTER THE
AREA LATER THIS MORNING BUT THAT WILL OFFER LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF IMPROVEMENT. EXPECT IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS RAIN SHOWERS, HEAVY AT TIMES, MOVE THROUGH
WITH MORE FOG DEVELOPING AS THEY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AS CEILINGS LIFT. ISOLATED
LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THURSDAY, WITH
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT LEB
AND HIE. CONDITIONS LIKELY DETERIORATE ON FRIDAY WITH MVFR AND
IFR AS RAIN MOVES IN, AND CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS
LIKELY IMPROVE BACK TO VFR DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WIND GUSTS STAY BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...SOME 5FT SEAS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN LATE THIS WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...BARON
LONG TERM...CLAIR/SCHROETER
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