881
FXUS61 KGYX 080026
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
726 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY PASS OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DEPARTING MONDAY MORNING.
COLD, WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A COMEBACK MONDAY
NIGHT. AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A FEW MORE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
715 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST A BIT IN A FEW AREAS.
HAVE BLENDED IN LATEST CAM GUIDANCE FOR POPS AND QPF OVERNIGHT
AND THE RESULT IS LESS SNOWFALL FARTHER SOUTH. NO ACCUMS OR VERY
LITTLE SOUTH OF A KLEB-KLCI-KPWM LINE. OTHERWISE, BROUGHT THE
WINDS UP LATE TONIGHT FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS 25-30 MPH AS WE
OCCASIONALLY MIX WELL IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
PREVIOUSLY...
* KEY MESSAGES: LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ME AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL NH. WHILE SNOW IS SET TO
TAPER OFF BEFORE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE, CONDITIONS MAY
REMAIN SLICK.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DOING A GREAT JOB HIGHLIGHTING TONIGHT'S
SNOW MAKER EMERGING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT SHAPE IS TYPICAL OF A OPEN WAVE/ORGANIZING LOW PRES, BUT
LIKELY WON'T GAIN ADDITIONAL FEATURES UNTIL ENTERING THE GULF OF
MAINE LATE TONIGHT.
SYSTEM TONIGHT HAS SPED UP ON BOTH ENDS, BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, AND STILL EXITING
MUCH OF THE MAINE COAST IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS MONDAY. AT TIME OF
WRITING, MWOBS HAS JUST REPORTED LIGHT SNOW, BUT VALLEY
LOCATIONS STILL EXHIBIT A LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. EXPECT
SATURATION TO BUILD DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WILL
LIKELY SEE MOSTLY VIRGA FROM NOW UNTIL 4PM OR SO.
THIS SNOW WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL ME AND NH INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE AXIS OF GREATEST QPF FROM
THE WHITES TO THE ME MIDCOAST AND LOWER KENNEBEC VALLEY. BROAD
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL THE CALL, BUT WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A NARROW SWATH AROUND 4 INCHES WHERE DURATION
AND RATES ARE MAXIMIZED.
ANOTHER FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE NARROW CONVERGENCE PERPENDICULAR
TO THE COAST THAT MAY BOOST SNOW RATES FROM CASCO BAY TO THE
MIDCOAST THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS SLIDING EAST
ACROSS MID-MAINE TONIGHT. BUT, MAY MAKE UP FOR ITS SHORT STAY BY
HAVING MORE POTENT LIFT NEAR/THROUGH THE DGZ. MOST HIRES
GUIDANCE DOES PIN BEST OMEGA BELOW THE DGZ, WHICH COULD LOWER
SNOW RATIO LOCALLY.
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MAINE AFTER MIDNIGHT, BRINGING AN
END TO SUSTAINED SNOW FOR NH AND WESTERN ME. RATES WILL ALSO
FALL OFF AFTER 4AM FOR MUCH OF MIDCOAST ME.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO MOVE OF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY AS STACKED LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF HUDSON BAY. THE
PATTERN WILL USHER IN ANOTHER WAVE OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS SETUP AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF REMAINING FLURRIES EARLY MONDAY MORNING, EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERHEAD WILL STILL BE TIGHT BEHIND THE EXITING SURFACE LOW,
SETTING UP A BLUSTERY DAY. 925MB WINDS 20 TO 30 KTS SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO A FEW GUSTS TO 30 MPH IN THE MORNING, BECOMING 15
TO 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE TEENS (MOUNTAINS) AND
20S TOWARD THE COAST, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FEEL LIKE THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS LIGHTEN IN THE EVENING. FRESH SNOW, COLD AND DRY AIRMASS,
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL DIP TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE
VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO TUMBLE BELOW THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR (SET THURSDAY NIGHT), STILL A VERY EARLY TIME OF
THE SEASON TO SEE THESE TEMPS. AT THIS TIME, NOT SEEING THE
VALUES NEEDED FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES GIVEN WINDS WILL BE
TRENDING CALM OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTING OVER THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS TROUGH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A COLDER AND ACTIVE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL START OFF BRISK, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BE CALM, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD AT THE TIME. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW ARRIVES IN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULDN'T EXCEED MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO, IT MAY
ALLOW FOR A SLICKER THAN USUAL WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL LOW ARRIVING IN THE AREA JUST IN TIME FOR
THE WEDNESDAY EVENING COMMUTE. THE STRONGER LOW MAY BE ABLE TO
BRING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THE COAST, ALLOWING FOR MORE OF
A RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE COAST WITH ALL SNOW ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS. SO WEDNESDAY'S COMMUTE MAY ALSO BE ON THE SLICKER
SIDE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE SNOW IS MORE
LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA BU THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR. A FEW
ISOLATED UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE COLDER AND ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES,
WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER MAKER ARRIVING ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR THIS AFTERNOON WILL TREND TOWARDS MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT. IFR VIS WILL RESULT FROM SN FALLING OVERNIGHT FOR
TERMINALS NORTH OF PSM/CON. AN AXIS FROM HIE TO AUG/WVL WILL SEE
THE LONGEST DURATION OF VIS REDUCTION, BUT SHOULD RECOVER
TOWARDS VFR BY 12Z MON. NW WINDS GUST UP TO 25/30 KT MON
MORNING, SLACKENING AS AFTERNOON GOES ON. VFR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT.
LONG TERM...VFR LIKELY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH
RESTRICTIONS LOWERING BY OVERNIGHT AS SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA.
RESTRICTIONS STAY DOWN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS MORE WINTRY
WEATHER MOVES IN. VFR APPEARS MORE LIKELY ON FRIDAY AS SKIES
CLEAR UP, THOUGH UPSLOPE SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS AT HIE CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE DAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT, WITH
GALE CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE CONTINUING INTO THE MON
EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM...ON TUESDAY WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BE BELOW
SCA LEVELS, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLIES AND
STRENGTHENING TO SCA LEVELS BY THE END OF THE DAY. SEAS WILL
ALSO INCREASE TO SCA LEVELS, WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
PREVAILING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE
FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS
TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS OF 5-8FT EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL LOWS MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ151-
153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ154.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/CORNWELL
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...PALMER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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