702
FXUS61 KGYX 021806
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
106 PM EST TUE DEC 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE FIRST WIDESPREAD WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A
PLOWABLE SNOW TO MUCH OF THE REGION THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND
INTO TONIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL BRIEFLY TURN QUIETER ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BRINGS SNOW SQUALLS AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES TURN SHARPLY COLDER TO END THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL
SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES CROSS THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL. THIS HAS BEEN DUE MAINLY TO
BROAD WARM ADVECTION LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN A MORE
CONCENTRATED MESOSCALE BAND FROM CONVERGENCE AROUND H7...AND
UNDER THIS SNOW TOTALS ARE APPROACHING 6 INCHES ALREADY.
FROM THIS POINT FORWARD INTO THE EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO BETTER COLLOCATE WITH MID LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AS THOSE LEVELS CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND CLOSE OFF.
WHEN THAT OCCURS PRECIP RATES WILL TEND TO REMAIN MODERATE TO
HEAVY. WHAT I AM WATCHING CLOSELY IS TEMPS ALONG THE COAST
TRACKING THE LOCATION OF THE COASTAL FRONT. TEMPS ARE DROPPING
ALONG THE MIDCOAST AS THE FRONT DRIFTS EAST. HI-RES MODEL
GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT THE COASTAL FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PUSH WEST ONLY FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS OR SO...MAYBE A LITTLE
LONGER FOR PENOBSCOT BAY...BEFORE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
PASSING OUR LONGITUDE DRAGS IT EAST AGAIN. SO MY GUT FEELING IS
THAT IF IT HAS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED UP ALONG THE COAST BY
NOW IT IS UNLIKELY TO DO SO FROM THIS POINT FORWARD GIVEN HOW
FAR OFFSHORE THE FRONT IS FOR AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MUSCONGUS BAY.
SNOWFALL RATES THRU EVENING WILL BE 1 INCH OR MORE PER HOUR AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY UNDER THE LARGELY STATIONARY BAND PARALLELING
THE STORM TRACK. AS A RESULT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE HIGHER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL SOUTHWESTERN MAINE
INTO ROCKINGHAM COUNTY NH. HOWEVER THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES IN
HEADLINES AS THESE AREAS WERE ALREADY IN A WINTER STORM
WARNING.
LATE TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST AND WINDS
TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND BEGIN TO DOWNSLOPE. THIS WILL END
SNOWFALL QUICKLY...BUT NOT BEFORE EVEN THOSE AREAS AROUND
PENOBSCOT BAY WHICH WILL HAVE BEEN MOSTLY RAIN FLIP TO A PERIOD
OF SNOW.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD IN. THIS BRING A DAY
OF BENIGN WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS.
CLOUDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE COOLING
POTENTIAL IN CHECK WITH THE FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES
WILL PROBABLY LEVEL OFF IN THE 20S FOR MOST, BUT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 10S ARE POSSIBLE IF THERE ARE PERIODS OF LESS CLOUD COVER
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO QUICKLY DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO BUILD IN. THIS BRING A DAY
OF BENIGN WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 30S WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS.
CLOUDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE COOLING
POTENTIAL IN CHECK WITH THE FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND. TEMPERATURES
WILL PROBABLY LEVEL OFF IN THE 20S FOR MOST, BUT IF THE THICKER
CLOUDS HOLD OFF, TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S ARE POSSIBLE.
LONG
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT THROUGH NEW
ENGLAND ON THURSDAY WITH SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT.
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, A SMALL AMOUNT OF
CAPE AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST THAT HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
AND/OR SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS (SUPPORTED BY SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS OF
2 TO 4 FROM THE NAM AND GFS). THIS ALSO APPLIES DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS AND EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST AS FROUDE NUMBERS WILL
BE WELL ABOVE THE SUPERCRITICAL LEVEL OF 2.
WINDS BECOME BREEZY THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
A VERY COLD AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THE
WINDS AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PUSH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR
MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY PART OF FRIDAY MORNING.
FORTUNATELY THE WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, BUT IT WILL
BE A COLD DAY WITH HIGHS REMAINING IN THE 20S AND EVEN 10S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. IF CLOUDS CAN HOLD OFF, FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
POSSIBLE IF SKIES DO REMAIN CLEAR ENOUGH.
FOR THE WEEKEND, A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO
PARTS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLY
SEEING LINGERING UPSLOPE PRECIP INTO SUNDAY, BUT PROBABILITIES
FOR OVER AN INCH OF SNOW ARE LOW (10-30% FROM THE ECMWF AND EVEN
LOWER FROM THE GFS).
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND TEMPERATURES REMAINING
COLDER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AT THIS
TIME AND SNOW CONTINUES FOR MOST AREAS. COASTAL FRONT REMAINS
ONSHORE FOR PARTS OF THE MIDCOAST...LEAVING RKD MVFR WITH LIGHT
RAIN. EVEN THERE BY THIS EVENING I EXPECTED WINDS TO SHIFT TO
MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY AND PRECIP WILL CHANGE TO SNOW.
SO IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS CONTINUE UNTIL BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z
FOR TAF SITES...GENERALLY ENDING WEST TO EAST.
LONG TERM...VFR EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE OF SCATTERED BUT
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND/OR SQUALLS. THESE COULD BRING
BRIEF INSTANCES OF IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS SHOULD THEY PASS OVER
ANY TERMINALS. MAINLY VFR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT WIND GUSTS TO 25-30KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THURS AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONTS WITH WINDS THEN
EASING THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ON SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS LASTING
INTO A PART OF SUNDAY FOR HIE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES TO THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST THRU
TONIGHT. THE COASTAL FRONT REMAINS OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS SOUTH OF ABOUT BOOTHBAY HARBOR. IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST ALONG THIS SOUTHERN END...SETTING UP EAST OF ISLES
OF SHOALS. TO THE EAST OF THAT BOUNDARY IT WILL REMAIN
RAIN...WHILE WEST WILL BE BE SNOW OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX BRINGING
LOWER VISIBILITY. TONIGHT AS THE COASTAL STORM PULLS AWAY WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME GUSTY FOR A TIME. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS...WITH SCAS
EXPECTED INSIDE.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS RELAX WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN. WINDS SHOULD
FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS BY THE AFTERNOON, BUT SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
AT OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS. FOR THURSDAY, A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THROUGH, LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
GALES TO BOTH THE BAYS AND OUTER WATERS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
MAY EVEN BE SOME GUSTS TO STORM FORCE OVER THE OUTER WATERS. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN AND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH
POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MEZ007>009.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ012>014-
018>028-033.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NHZ001>003.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ004>015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...COMBS
LONG TERM...COMBS
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