570
FXUS61 KGYX 060644
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
244 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD THROUGH LATE WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIVES THE WEATHER
PATTERN FOR NEW ENGLAND.
2. THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG STORMS AND LOCALIZED TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TOWARDS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL
BE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE BEFORE MORE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUD COVER COOLS HIGHS A BIT ON SATURDAY TO MAINLY THE UPPER
80S. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR
AUGUST, DEW POINT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL
MAKE IT FEEL RATHER MUGGY.
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH THE MIDDLE 90S TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE NH AND THEREFORE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY ENCOMPASSING A LARGER AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT DEW POINTS SHOULD
BE MAINLY INTO THE 60S, LIMITING THE HEAT INDEX. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARMER SIDE EACH NIGHT, ALTHOUGH
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD MANAGE TO FALL INTO THE 60S MOST NIGHTS.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS BY TUESDAY, BRINGING A
RETURN TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN REGARDS TO THE SETUP FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS, BUT THE CAMS ARE BEGINNING TO SHED SOME LIGHT ON
THE FINER DETAILS. DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS GOING TO DRIVE
PWATS INTO THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE, WITH POCKETS OF GREATER
THAN 2 INCH PWATS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST CAMS SUGGEST DEWPOINTS
BEING DRIVEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IS GOING TO EQUATE TO CAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO
2000 J/KG RANGE. ALL THIS ALONG WITH 25 TO 30 KTS OF SHEAR
SUGGEST THAT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE, HOWEVER LACK
OF FORCING IS GOING TO BE A GREATLY LIMITING FACTOR. CURRENTLY
THE CAMS HAVE VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING, BUT IF ANYTHING DOES FORM AND BUILD IT COULD PRODUCE
STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL (THE HREF IS SHOWING
BULLSEYE OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IN THE LOCAL PROBABILITY MATCH
MEAN).
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS WE CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT
DISCUSSED ABOVE WITH MODELS SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
DURING THE DAY. CSU MACHINE LEARNING IS HIGHLIGHTING THIS AS A
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER DAY, BUT FRONTS CAN BE FINICKY AND
WOULD LIKE TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THIS GETS IN THE CAM WINDOW.
CURRENTLY ONLY THE RRFS GOES OUT THAT FAR AND SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING SHOWERS THAT MAY SHUT DOWN THE
CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT. IT IS NOT ATYPICAL TO SEE THIS
UNCERTAINTY IN CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENTS THAT LACK FORCING, SO WE
WILL JUST HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS AS MORE CYCLES
COME IN.
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ADAMANT THAT EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
GOING TO BE THE TURNING POINT AS THE 500 MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL FLOW. THIS LIKELY RESULTS IN A COOLING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS, BUT THIS TENDS TO KEEP THE WEATHER
UNSETTLED SO I'M FINE WITH THE NBM CONTINUING TO SHOW CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE
EXCEPTIONS ARE AT LEB, HIE, CON, AND POSSIBLY RKD/AUG WHERE
NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING FG MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED IFR TO
LIFR RESTRICTIONS. LOW CEILINGS ADVANCING NORTH FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND SHOULD THIN AS THEY APPROACH SOUTHERN NH, BUT CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME LOW CIGS EARLY THURS MORNING FOR PSM/MHT/EEN.
THIS THEN MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, LINGERING TODAY AND
TONIGHT, PERHAPS IN VICINITY OF PSM/PWM/RKD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS BECOME S AT 5-15 KTS TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. NO LLWS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSRA CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH LOW
CIGS AND SHRA.
SATURDAY: SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS. CIGS MAY ALSO BE AROUND MVFR THRESHOLDS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND SLOWLY SHIFTS
SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. A FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOUTH TO SW FLOW GENERALLY
PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NHZ012-013.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/BARON/CORNWELL
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