445
FXUS61 KGYX 061929
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
329 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A LATER SHOWER ONSET IS EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE,
WITH PRECIPITATION ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RAIN SLOWLY APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE TONIGHT,
CONTINUING INTO FAR SOUTHERN MAINE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAIN RATES IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE COULD RESULT IN PONDING OR NUISANCE FLOODING OF URBAN
OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
2. TEMPERATURES WARM DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY RETURNING FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
FAIR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONSHORE FLOW
WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE ME COAST AND INTERIOR AS THE
EVENING GOES ON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, WITH VISIBILITY IMPROVING COME WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
TO THE SOUTH, A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS UNDERWAY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE MOST WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, ENVIRONMENT
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IN FAR SOUTHERN NH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY DEEP
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS, ANOMALOUS PWAT VALUES, AND FORCING FROM THE
LOW PASSING SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND.
THE JUXTAPOSITION OF THESE ELEMENTS SHOULD MOVE NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN NH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH THE MORE ROBUST
SHOWERS WITHIN THE PRECIP SHIELD CONTAINING HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES. OF CONCERN WOULD BE THE COMBINATION OF THESE HEAVY RATES
WITH BACKBUILDING OVER URBAN ENVIRONMENTS WHERE NUISANCE
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS MAY RESULT.
LIFT WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE TO THE EAST, WITH THE BACK SIDE OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD EXITING THE ME/NH COAST TUESDAY EVENING. WITH
THICK CLOUD COVER AND RAIN TUESDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY APPARENT IN SOUTHERN NH WHERE
DAYTIME HIGHS MAY ONLY MAKE IT TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WHERE NO
PRECIP IS EXPECTED AND CLOUDS WILL BE THINNER, HIGHS TOWARDS THE
LOWER 80S CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS CENTRAL MAINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY AND FULL SUN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO
THE LOW TO MID-80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE RIDGING SLOWLY
BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY, BUT NOT BEFORE 850 MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE +15-17C RANGE. THIS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND POTENTIALLY EVEN THE LOW 90S
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHEREAS THE NORTH MAY ONLY REACH THE LOW
TO MID- 80S BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN CREEPING IN. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS INCREASE, MAINLY IN THE NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT AS HEIGHT
FALLS CONTINUE AND THE 500 MB PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A BROAD
TROUGH.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY, NOW SLOWLY SAGGING IT THROUGH ON FRIDAY.
THE EURO WAS NOTABLY SLOWER YESTERDAY, BUT IT NOW SPEEDING UP TO
JOIN THE REST OF THE MODELS WHICH INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SOLUTION. HOWEVER, FRIDAY DOES CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE MORE
HUMID DAY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
ON SOUTHWEST FLOW. I'M NOT READY TO FULLY COUNT OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAT ADVISORIES BEING NEEDED IN SOUTHERN ZONES AS
THESE LOCATIONS MAY STILL PUSH 90 DEGREES WITH THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GIVING THAT EXTRA BUMP TO WARMING. COOLER
DEWPOINTS AND DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ARE GOING TO HELP
MAKING THINGS FEEL MORE PLEASANT OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE REGION IS GOING TO KEEP
SOME CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST, BUT WITH NOT MUCH LIFT ADVERTISED IN THE MODELS MOST
LOCATIONS STAND TO SPEND MUCH OF THE TIME DRY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A FEW SHRA
POSSIBLE TOWARDS HIE. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER THIS EVENING AS
RA APPROACHES SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS, WITH SOME
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAINFALL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE ME COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BRING IN MOISTURE THAT COULD RESULT IN A LOW
STRATUS DECK AND FOG TONIGHT INTO TUES MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS
FOR AUG/RKD/PWM WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT LOCAL TO SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: CAN'T RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT A GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TREND
TO VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
ONSHORE FLOW BUILDING WINDS AND WAVES TOWARDS THE NH COAST. THIS
MAY LEAD TO SCA CONDITIONS, SLACKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT.
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE
ATLANTIC.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ154.
DISCUSSION...BARON/CORNWELL
AVIATION...CORNWELL
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