785
FXUS61 KGYX 031129
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
629 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LATEST HI-RES FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO TREND WETTER
WITH QPF OF GENERALLY BETWEEN 1/3RD TO 1/2 INCH. THIS RESULTS
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD 3-5" SNOWFALL AND GIVEN THAT IT WILL IMPACT
THIS EVENING COMMUTE, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION. A GLAZE OF ICE REMAINS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SOME SLICK TRAVEL IS LIKELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE
INTO FAR SOUTHWEST MAINE. LIGHT SNOW EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.
2. WARMER TEMPS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, BEFORE A COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY.
3. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS THEN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST THIS MORNING AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH WEAK JET
STREAK COUPLING WILL SPAWN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF IN THE
GULF OF MAINE LATE THIS EVENING BRINGING A BRIEF WIND SHIFT OUT
OF THE NORTH.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CREEP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL AID IN COOLING SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
WET BULBING WHILE IT MAY TAKE TIME FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES WILL
INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
MAINE GOING INTO THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH RATES AROUND 0.5
INCHES PER HOUR. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SLICK TRAVEL FOR
THE EVENING COMMUTE. SNOWFALL WITH CONTINUE TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
TONIGHT. LATEST AVAILABLE 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN SLIGHT INCREASE
IN QPF WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS APPROACHING 0.5 INCHES. THIS HAS
PUSHED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP SLIGHTLY WITH A SWATH OF 2-4 INCHES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW HAMPSHIRE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT A WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL CREEP INTO SOUTHERN NH AND
PORTIONS OF YORK COUNTY WHILE THE NORTHERLY SHIFT IN SURFACE
WINDS COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING. THIS MAY
ALLOW FOR SNOW TO CHANGE TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX AS PRECIPITATION
COMES TO AN END HERE. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
EVENING AFTER THE EVENING COMMUTE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED FROM LIGHT ICE ACCRETION. PRECIPITATION
WILL END NW TO SE AFTER MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY RISING ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WARMER TEMPS MAKE AN APPEARANCE ON WEDNESDAY AS MIXING ON A
WESTERLY WIND ALLOWS TEMPS TO WARM INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50
DEGREES DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS THROUGH
DURING THE DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY, MOVING OFFSHORE LATE AND
BRINGING IN A SEA BREEZE ALONG THE MIDCOAST BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THEN ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT LIKELY DROPS TEMPS FOR AT LEAST
MAINE DURING THE DAY, AND THEN NEW HAMPSHIRE THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS STILL AREN'T DEFINING THIS FEATURE WELL, BUT IT IS MORE
LIKELY TO BE BETTER RESOLVED AS IT COMES INTO VIEW OF THE HIGH
RES GUIDANCE TODAY. IF THE FRONT COMES THROUGH DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, HIGHS WOULD LIKELY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT THE
MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE ON THE HEELS OF THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FEATURE
OVER THE COMING DAYS. MEANWHILE, NEW HAMPSHIRE STANDS THE BEST
CHANCE TO SEE HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AGAIN ON
THURSDAY BEFORE THE FRONT COMES THROUGH AT NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
WITH COOLER AIR RETURNING, ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARD THE NEXT
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY. FOR AT LEAST THREE DAYS NOW, MODELS HAVE
BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON WHETHER THIS SYSTEM BRINGS MOISTURE INTO
OUR AREA, OR IF IT MOSTLY GETS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH. AT THIS
POINT THE ANSWER REMAINS UNCLEAR. BUT WITH THE COLDER AIR BACK
IN PLACE, WHATEVER DOES ARRIVE IS LIKELY TO BE IN THE FORM OF
EITHER SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX, WITH SNOW MORE LIKELY ON THE
NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD, AND A MIX MORE LIKELY
FURTHER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER, THESE DETAILS REMAIN MOOT IF THE PRECIP FAILS TO REACH
NEW HAMPSHIRE OR MAINE, SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO WAIT FOR A BETTER
CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS. WITH SOME RECENT EVENTS TRENDING
WETTER, AND OTHERS DRIER IN THE LAST FEW WEEKS, THE PATTERN
DOESN'T REALLY OFFER ANY BETTER CLUES AGAINST THE MODELS EITHER.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY: WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WE
COULD SEE SOME BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AUG AND RKD BY MID
TO LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS THICKEN AND
LOWER FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW OVERSPREADS FROM
SW TO NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST IFR BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCON TO KPWM. CONDITIONS WILL
THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION
ENDS.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY: VFR IS LIKELY FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, BUT VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
AT NIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS ARE THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH MAINE AND PSM
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE DUE TO SNOW,
RAIN AND WINTRY MIX.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING WITH SHOWERY
MIXED PRECIP.
MARINE
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND
INTO THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WINDS
INCREASE THIS MORNING BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE AND
INCOMING LOW PRESSURE. THIS WILL BRING SCA CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
REGIME. CONDITIONS EASE AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE
THURSDAY AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. LOW
PRESSURE THEN RIDES SOUTH OF THE WATERS FRIDAY, ENHANCING THE
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO LATE FRIDAY. CONDITIONS EASE FRIDAY
NIGHT, BUT THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN ON SATURDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ018>020-023>025.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/SCHROETER/CLAIR
AVIATION...TUBBS
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