000  
FXUS61 KGYX 210156 AAC  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
856 PM EST WED FEB 20 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND  
INTO CANADA OVERNIGHT LIFTING A WARM FRONT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW  
ENGLAND INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR  
SNOWFALL AND MIXED PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE TEMPERATURE WARMS  
UP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE  
NORTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING COOLER WEATHER BACK INTO THE  
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND EXITS TO  
THE EAST ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE  
DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD  
THE GREAT LAKES. IT WILL BRING ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO NEW  
ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY  
PRECIPITATION.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
845 PM UPDATE...  
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WERE ADJUSTED FOR DRIER AND COLDER  
AIR WEDGING IN FROM THE NE. TEMPS WILL HOLD STEADY OR SLOWLY  
BEGIN TO RISE FOR SOUTHWESTERN NH AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE. THE  
REST OF THE AREA WILL RISE SLOWER BUT WILL FOLLOW THE SAME  
GENERAL TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT AFTER FALLING A FEW MORE DEGREES.  
NEW TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMOVED ANY FREEZING RAIN FROM THE  
FORECAST.  
 
630 PM UPDATE...  
MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BASED ON LATEST MODEL  
TRENDS AND OBS. FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW ARE BEING  
REPORTED TO OUR SOUTHWEST IN THE BERKSHIRES AND OTHER AREAS. NH  
AND ME ARE STILL TOO DRY AND ARE IN THE PROCESS OF SATURATING.  
MODELS HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY COLDER AND HAVE ADJUSTED WEATHER  
AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS SLIGHTLY FOR THE OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT ENOUGH  
TO AFFECT THE OVERALL FORECAST OF SNOW OR SLEET, ETC. FORECAST  
IS IN GOOD SHAPE OTHERWISE WITH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION  
ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
440 PM UPDATE...  
JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST A HEADLINE.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...  
CLOUDS ARE GRADUALLY THICKENING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. RADAR  
SHOWING WIDESPREAD RETURNS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND  
EASTERN NEW YORK BUT A MAJORITY OF THIS NOT SHOWING UP IN  
SURFACE OBS AS THE VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION  
IS INHIBITING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION  
WELL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO  
SOUTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE THIS  
AIRMASS SO ONLY LOOKING FOR OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN  
NEW HAMPSHIRE FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING  
HOURS. EXPECT STEADIER PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW  
HAMPSHIRE BETWEEN 800 AND 1000 PM AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE  
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER.  
 
HAVE NOT MADE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND  
STILL LOOKING FOR 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. STILL EXPECTING WARMER AIR  
ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND  
COASTAL/SOUTHERN INTERIOR MAINE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS  
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO SLEET AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF PERIOD  
OF FREEZING RAIN IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS SHOULD HOLD  
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 2 TO 3 INCH IN THOSE LOCATIONS. EXPECT LOW  
TEMPERATURES TO BE REACHED DURING THE EVENING BEFORE TEMPS  
BECOME STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING. LOWS WILL RANGE THROUGH THE  
TEENS IN THE NORTH AND LOWER TO MID 20S SOUTH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO  
NORTHEAST THURSDAY MORNING AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND  
WESTERLYS KICK IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. EXPECT CLEARING DOWNWIND  
OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND WITH COLDER AIR  
LAGGING BACK TO THE WEST...SHOULD SEE TEMPS TAKE A JUMP INTO 40S  
IN SOUTHERN ZONES WHICH SHOULD HELP MELT OFF AREA ROADS. FARTHER  
NORTH CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST IN THE USUAL UPSLOPE  
AREAS. HIGHS IN THE NORTH WILL RANGE THROUGH THE 30S.  
 
LOOKING FOR VARIABLE CLOUDS IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT  
WITH EVENING SNOW SHOWERS. REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE PARTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  
LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH THE 20S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THE GLOBAL PATTERN STAYS FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS WITH A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. IN THE EAST A  
SERIES OF WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE PUSHING MORE  
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REGION.  
 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WE HAVE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION. SUNNY  
SKIES AND FAIRLY MODERATE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR  
HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 40S.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR ALLOWING TEMPERATURES  
TO DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT ANOTHER  
APPROACHING SYSTEM BRINGS CLOUDS TO THE REGION KEEPING  
TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT.  
 
THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES OUR PATTERN WITH THE MAIN LOW  
PRESSURE TRACKING TO OUR WEST THROUGH ONTARIO AND INTO SOUTHERN  
QUEBEC. ONCE AGAIN THIS SETS UP NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO BE IN  
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE MAIN CYCLONE AND A MIX OF PRECIPITATION  
TYPES IS EXPECTED. ALOFT THE INFILTRATION OF WARM AIR IS LIKELY  
AND WHILE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ARE TO BE EXPECTED  
AT THIS TIME RANGE ALL OPTIONS PUT WARM AIR INTO THE REGION FAR  
ENOUGH TO PUSH A MIX THROUGH AT LEAST THE FOOTHILLS. AT THE  
SURFACE WE SEE WHAT IS BEGINNING TO BECOME AN ALL TOO FAMILIAR  
STORY. THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR COLD AIR TO  
LINGER ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK SECONDARY  
SURFACE CYCLOGENSIS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT COLDER AIR MAY HOLD ON  
LONGER AT THE SURFACE. HAVE KEPT WITH THESE TRENDS KEEPING  
COLDER AIR LONGER AT THE SURFACE WHILE ALLOWING THE WARM AIR IN  
ALOFT FOR YET ANOTHER MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT. TEMPERATURES  
UNCERTAINTY WILL LIKELY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE  
SYSTEM FORMS TO OUR WEST AND FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TO A MIDDLE  
GROUND FOR TIMING AND TEMPERATURES.  
 
BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WE SEE A COLD  
FRONT CROSS THE REGION WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN.  
WHILE THE INITIAL COLD FROPA MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE TEMPS BRIEFLY  
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS AS DOWNSLOPING TAKES  
OVER FROM THE COLD AIR DAMMING IN GENERAL TEMPERATURES WILL FALL  
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. STRONG MIXING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE  
FRONT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
WITH A LOW LEVEL JET OF UP TO 60KTS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR  
STRONG WIND GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...IFR/LIFR CEILINGS/VSBY DEVELOP THIS EVENING FROM  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. BECOMING VFR DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS  
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY IN THE  
NORTH. VFR THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM... HIGH PRESSURE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL MAINTAIN  
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING WILL  
LOWER CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND THEN IFR AS MIXED PRECIPITATION  
MOVES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY. EXPECT IFR TO CONTINUE WITH  
SNOW NORTH AND SNOW SHIFTING TO SLEET AND RAIN IN THE SOUTH. A  
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY  
WITH INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND IMPROVING CEILINGS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM...HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTHWEST OF THE WATERS ON  
SUNDAY BRINING WIDESPREAD RAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE  
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BRINGING STRONG WEST  
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GALE FORCE LIKELY AND A FEW GUSTS TO  
STORM FORCE POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
STORM SURGE OF AROUND A HALF FOOT WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH  
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ON THURSDAY TO PRODUCE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING  
AND SPLASH-OVER AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WHICH OCCURS AROUND  
NOON. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 200 PM  
THURSDAY FOR COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-  
012>014-018>028.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 2 PM EST THURSDAY FOR  
MEZ023-024.  
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR  
NHZ001>015.  
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 2 PM EST THURSDAY FOR  
NHZ014.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR  
ANZ150-152-154.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...HANES  
SHORT TERM...CURTIS  
LONG TERM...SINSABAUGH  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab ME Page
The Nexlab NH Page Main Text Page