704
FXUS61 KGYX 122002 CCA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
402 PM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLOW MOVING AND REPEAT ROUNDS OF
STORMS WILL BRING A LOCALIZED RISK FOR CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING
FOR AREAS WITHIN THE FLOOD WATCH. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
MARGINAL WHILE SOME STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
2. HUMIDITY ABATES THIS WEEKEND WHILE TEMPERATURES RUN WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
3. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AND BRING THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
4. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS WEEKEND. A RETURN TO SEASONABLE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS IS IN PLACE AS THIS MORNING'S KGYX
SOUNDING SET A NEW PWAT RECORD FOR THE DATE AT 1.91 INCHES. LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS BRINGS AN AXIS OF SB CAPE OF 2000-2500 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH THIS CAPE
BUILDING TO 3000 J/KG THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WEAK SHEAR HAS LED TO MAINLY SMALL
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND FAR NORTHWEST
MAINE. CAMS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT A SW TO NE AREA OF
CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE FLOOD WATCH AS FOCUS FOR CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH
RAINFALL RATES NEARING 3 INCHES PER HOUR. THIS WILL BRING THE
RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING AND ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF CONSIDERABLE
FLASH FLOODING AS THE LATEST HREF MAX SHOWS 3-HOUR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES. WHILE THE LACK OF SHEAR WILL MAINLY KEEP
THESE STORMS SUB-SEVERE ANY CORE COLLAPSES COULD LEAD TO
ISOLATED INCIDENTS OF STRONG DOWN BURST WINDS. CONVECTION ALONG
THE AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL GRADUALLY WANE LATE THIS EVENING AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES FROM 8 PM TO 2 AM. THE LACK OF SHEAR AND
DIMINISHING CAPE WILL LIMIT THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WITH SPC
HAVING A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NH AND
NW MAINE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE REPEAT ROUNDS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL OVER AREAS
THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING WITH STEADY NW
WINDS WINDS USHERING IN A DRIER AIR MASS. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP INTO THE 50S, DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL AID IN ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT
COLD WATER SAFETY AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S WHILE
AIR TEMPERATURES AT THE BEACHES WILL BE NEAR 90F. VERY WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN 80S TO LOW 90S WHILE
DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
ONE MORE HOT DAY IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL NY STATE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
INTERIOR WESTERN ME WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ACROSS NH. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE BEACHES DUE TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LARGELY BE 60 DEGREES OR
BELOW, AND THEREFORE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND ACTUAL
AIR TEMPERATURES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SINKING SOUTH TO THE COASTLINE
BY THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT. MACHINE LEARNING MAINTAINS A LOW RISK FOR THIS
POTENTIAL, MAINLY ACROSS NH AND INTERIOR WESTERN ME. THE LATEST
SPC D3 OUTLOOK HAS TRENDED NORTHWARD WITH A MRGL RISK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL NH AND A SLGT RISK NUDGING INTO CHESHIRE
COUNTY. SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY BEFORE ENDING
MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE INTO THE 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
MEAN TROFING LOOKS TO SETUP OVER THE NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AT TIMES. AFTER MAINLY DRY DAYS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE MID TO LATE
WEEK AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CROSS NEAR OR OVER THE
REGION.
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH STORM SURGE UP
TO AROUND 1/2 FOOT MAY BRING TOTAL WATER LEVELS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD
STAGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FROM PORTLAND, ME AND POINTS
SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH MARINE STRATUS FOG INTO PSM, PWM, RKD, LATE THIS EVENING
FOR PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR. ISOLATED STORMS WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR TEMPO RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH CONFIDENCE ONLY
HIGH ENOUGH AT HIE TO PUT IN THE TAF. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
REMAINS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT WHILE DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE
WEST WILL LIMIT ITS DURATION. VFR IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AROUND 18Z THEN
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA ARRIVES AND PERSISTS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BRINGING LOCALIZED IFR OR LOWER
RESTRICTIONS. S-SE WINDS AT 10-20 KT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH W WINDS 10-15
KTS.
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOG IS
LIKELY OVER THE WATERS UNTIL THE FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR FOR
SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH S WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AND SEAS OF 3-5 FT. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH SATURDAY: LOWERING CIGS AND PATCHY FOR LIKELY BRINGS
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE CON AND MHT MAY
STAY VFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS MORNING
WHILE ONSHORE FLOW MAY KEEP LOW STRATUS AND FOG NEAR PWM, AUG,
AND RKD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO RESTRICTIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. FOG CAN BE EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS TONIGHT
AFTER 22Z OR SO. DRIER AIR ARRIVING SAT MORNING SHOULD LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH W-NW WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: LATE DAY AND EVENING SHRA AND TSRA WILL
LIKELY BRING LOCALIZED IFR OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. S-SE
WINDS OF 10-20 KTS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED -SHRA
POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS INTO SATURDAY. A
MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG
LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT
AND IMPROVES VSBYS DRAMATICALLY FOR SAT.
S-SE WINDS ON SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL CROSS OVER THE WATERS EARLY ON
MONDAY. SEAS UP TO 5 FT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW
CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-033.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ012-018-019-
033.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NHZ004-006.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ004>013-015.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHROETER/TUBBS
AVIATION...SCHROETER/TUBBS
MARINE...SCHROETER/TUBBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page