374
FXUS61 KGYX 031836
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
236 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GREATER CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL HEAT LASTING THROUGH
SATURDAY FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HEAT ACCUMULATION, BUT HUMIDITY WON'T BE AS HIGH AS
NORMAL SUMMER HOT STRETCHES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY (SATURDAY FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN AND COASTAL LOCATIONS),
FOR AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF HEAT. WHILE HEAT WILL BE ALLOWED TO
BUILD, HIGH HUMIDITY IS NOT FORECAST AND WILL PREVENT EXCESSIVE
HEAT IMPACTS.
2. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE INCREASING CHANCE FOR
RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING, NORTH TO SOUTH.
THE FRONT WILL BRING A COOLER AIRMASS, WITH TEMPERATURES
RETREATING BACK TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRANSIT
SE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
PROVIDING NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH A DRY CONTINENTAL AIRMASS.
PRIMARY MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE CONUS WILL BE POSITIONED
POLEWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS, LAZILY ARCHING NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS A LONG TRANSIT, AND THE DISTANCE FROM SOURCE
MOISTURE LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER FOR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT ONLY IS THIS THE CASE FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT ALSO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT.
DAILY DIURNAL CYCLES SHOULD HAVE DEEP MIXING TO AT LEAST 800MB,
MUCH OF THIS WITH SIGNIFICANT SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS INTO
MIDDAY. SO WHILE HEAT WILL BE PRESENT, HUMIDITY VALUES AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD BE LOWER AND LESS OPPRESSIVE VS. MID-SUMMER HEAT
WAVES. THIS IS REFLECTED WITH FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES
REMAINING NEAR THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE. THAT SAID, THE THREE TO
FOUR DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, DAYTIME HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS, WILL ALLOW HEAT TO ACCUMULATE.
THIS ACCUMULATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTHERN NH THROUGH THE
LAKES REGION OF ME/NH AND INTO THE INTERIOR OF ME. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME HIGHS TO PUSH INTO THE 80S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AS WELL, ESPECIALLY INTO LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, THE BACKGROUND INTENSITY ISN'T VERY STRONG. ITS
POSSIBLE, WITH THE STRONG EARLY SEASON LAND/SEA TEMP GRADIENT,
WE SEE SOME MID TO LATE AFTERNOON RELIEF IN THE WAY OF ONSHORE
SEABREEZE ALONG AT LEAST THE MIDCOAST PENINSULAS AND IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN ME/NH COAST.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL SEE THE MOST EXPANSIVE COVERAGE OF
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S, BUT NEARING COLD FRONT TO
THE NORTH ON SATURDAY COULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS THE KENNEBEC VALLEY. SOUTH OF
HERE, IT LOOKS TO BE ONE MORE HOT DAY WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER
80S FOR SOUTHERN NH THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN ME.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
SINKS INTO THE SOUTH, IT WILL LOSE INFLUENCE ON THE NORTHEAST
AND MOISTURE ROUNDING THE TOP WILL SEEP INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THE FIRST CHANCE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH, WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
FOOTHILLS AND PERHAPS INTERIOR. ENSEMBLE MEAN MUCAPE COMES IN
AROUND 500 J/KG WHICH IS GOOD FOR A CHANCE OF THUNDER, WITH
PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE THIS PROBABILITY AND STRENGTH. STILL IN
A WARM AIRMASS, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD KEEP A CAP ON
INTENSITY EVEN IF SHEAR/INSTABILITY ALIGN.
PWATS UP TO 1.3 INCH CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO COLLAPSE AND PUSH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. ITS
HERE THAT THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE STILL HAS A WIDE SPREAD IN
TIMING THROUGH GUIDANCE. BUT, RAIN CHANCES SEEM TO BE GREATEST
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING TO
THE SOUTH. JET DYNAMICS AREN'T PARTICULARLY STRONG, AND WILL
RELY ON THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE PLUME, 30 KT LLJ, AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTH (~10-11KFT) FOR WHAT PRECIP EFFICIENCY CAN BE MUSTERED.
CURRENT GUIDANCE MEAN PRECIP THROUGH MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE
A COUPLE TENTHS EITHER SIDE OF 1 INCH, BUT EXPECT THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND WHERE ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ENHANCE RATES.
THE RESULTING AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FEATURE NOT AS HOT
TEMPERATURES, SETTLING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE HEAT SHOULD BREAK SUNDAY AREAWIDE,
WITH HIGHS AROUND THE LOWER 70S SUN AND MON.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...VFR. DRY AIRMASS SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS TODAY
BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT, WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT
THURSDAY. WEAK SEA BREEZE DAILY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS, MORESO
PWM/RKD THAN PSM.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR EXPECTED, CLOUDS THICKENING AND
LOWERING.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: A COLD FRONT BRINGS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND MVFR TO IFR RESTRICTIONS
ACROSS THE REGION, MAINLY FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES SATURDAY
MORNING AND THEN GENERALLY AREAWIDE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SUNDAY: CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS AND IFR
RESTRICTIONS, ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
IMPROVEMENT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY INTO
SUNDAY, BUT THIS DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH.
MONDAY: MOSTLY VFR, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR CONDITIONS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN
GUSTS LESS THAN 15 KTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS 1 TO 3 FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH AN UPTICK IN WINDS AS THEY SHIFT NW TO NE AFTER
PASSAGE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL
AVIATION...CORNWELL
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