842
FXUS61 KGYX 271014
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
614 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAS SHIFTED EAST TO
INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE, AND AGAIN FOR SOUTHERN MAINE ON FRIDAY. STORMS MAY
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
2. LOWER DEW POINTS AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
MOSTLY DRY WITH JUST A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
HUMIDITY REBOUNDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH UNCERTAINTY OVER
TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AN ELONGATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND TODAY, WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT.
SW LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES THIS MORNING AS A RIDGE EXITS EAST.
THIS WILL AID IN THE ADVECTION OF MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS
THIS MORNING, WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S FORECAST.
THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE HUMID TODAY, BUT ALSO PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FUEL FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AND EVENTUAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE CAPE INCREASES ACROSS NH AND FAR WESTERN ME LATE THIS
MORNING. HREF MEMBERS KEEP A WIDE SPREAD OF CAPE VALUES FOR THIS
REGION, BUT THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT THAT POINTS TOWARDS THE ME
MIDCOAST AND KENNEBEC VALLEY REMAINING MORE STABLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THUS PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE POINTS TO THE WEST.
OVERLAPPING SHEAR IS MOST NOTABLE IN THE LOW LEVELS (0-1KM 15
TO 25 KTS) WHILE DEEPER SHEAR IS MARGINAL (0-6KM 20 TO 35 KTS)
OWNING TO WEAK JET DYNAMICS ALOFT. THERE IS SOME IMPROVEMENT TO
LLJ VELOCITY INTO THE EVENING, BUT THIS IS WHEN DAYTIME HEATING
WILL BE WANING AND LIMITING REMAINING STORM STRENGTH.
WHILE THESE VARIABLES STRIKE A GOOD BALANCE FOR THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME STRONGER STORMS, WEAK LAPSE RATES COULD LIMIT STORM
SEVERITY AND COVERAGE. THIS LEADS TO GUSTY WINDS/HAIL AS THE
PRIMARY THREAT FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO NORTHERN NH INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE OVERHEAD, WITH
DAYTIME HEATING FRIDAY AGAIN INITIATING SHOWERS AND STORMS
FURTHER INTO SOUTHERN MAINE AND PERHAPS THE NH SEACOAST. THE
MAIN MOISTURE PLUME WILL HAVE BISECTED THE CWA, WITH THE
WEAKENING FRONT PROVIDING LIFT FROM THE FOOTHILLS EAST. CAMS
SHOW SOME REDEVELOPING CONVECTION IN THIS REGION TO THE COASTAL
WATERS, ALTHOUGH WIND/HAIL THREAT APPEARS LOWER AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS OUR REGION BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, SETTING
US UP FOR A FAIRLY PLEASANT FINAL WEEKEND OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER.
DRYING WESTERLY FLOW OUT OF CANADA COMBINED WITH A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTING OVER THE REGION WILL USHER IN MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH DEW POINTS FALLING TO THE 40S/50S. BOTH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A TRANSITION DAY, WITH SOME GUIDANCE
USHERING IN SHOWERS TO OUR NORTHERN ZONES LATER IN THE DAY WHILE
OTHER OUTCOMES KEEP IT MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY CASE EXPECT A SECOND DAY
OF LOW HUMIDITY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BY AFTERNOON, AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTH, POTENTIALLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY
NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BOTH
DAYS.
LOOKING TOWARDS NEXT WEEK, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. COMBINED WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER CANADA, THIS PUTS US BACK INTO AN ACTIVE STORM TRACK WITH
LIKELY A FEW DISTURBANCES RIDING ON STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN
THESE TWO FEATURES. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING HUMIDITY FROM
MONDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES ARE MORE UNCERTAIN, AS 500 MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES START TO REALLY TICK UP LATER INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION MAY PUT A LIMIT ON TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...AS OF 6AM, PATCHY FOG IS BEING REPORTED
ACROSS MUCH OF NH AND ME. FOG HAS BEEN DENSE IN SOME PLACES.
FOG WILL MIX OUT BY 14Z TODAY, AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON,
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WILL ALLOW FOR
RESTRICTIONS TO LOWER FROM WEST TO EAST. STORM COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE MORE SCATTERED, BUT WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES NEW ENGLAND LATER
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES, LOW STRATUS MAY ALLOW FOR
SUSTAINED RESTRICTIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERMAL
PROFILES AT THIS TIME DO NOT QUITE SUPPORT MEANINGFUL FOG
GROWTH. CIGS ARE LIKELY TO GO DOWN TO IFR, BUT MORE UNCERTAINTY
LIES IN IF VISIBILITY DEGRADES AS WELL.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG AT NIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN VALLEY FOG AT NIGHT,
OTHERWISE VFR.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: ANY EARLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR SATURDAY WITH VFR THE PREVAILING CONDITION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS CEILINGS
THICKEN AND LOWER AND SHOWERS DEVELOP.
MARINE
AREAS OF MARINE FOG/STRATUS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS AS HUMIDITY INCREASES TODAY AND FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
REMAIN OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO
25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF FAIR CONDITIONS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER
AVIATION...CORNWELL/PALMER
MARINE...CORNWELL
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