305
FXUS61 KGYX 241132 AAA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPIRED AS ELEVATED WIND GUSTS ARE
CONTINUING TO TAPER OFF, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SO DO THROUGH THE
MORNING. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST AS WE REMAIN ON TRACK FOR A MOSTLY DRY DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE STRONG NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA
THE REST OF TONIGHT WITH FURTHER IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AND A
BREAK FROM WINTRY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER,
BLOWING SNOW FROM GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO CAUSE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
2. LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MAY IMPACT THE
MORNING COMMUTE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA AND COULD LINGER TO
IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE IN PARTS OF WESTERN MAINE. HEAVY
SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN SNOW SQUALLS MAY THEN APPROACH FROM THE
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
3. TRANQUIL WEATHER IS LIKELY AFTER THURSDAY. A SYSTEM MAY BRING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO COASTAL MAINE ON FRIDAY. A THAW APPEARS IN THE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURNING EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SNOWFALL HAS COME TO AN END WITH THE NOR'EASTER PULLING AWAY FROM
THE AREA AND BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AS IT DOES SO. HOWEVER, THE
GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT, AND GUSTY WINDS OF 20-30 MPH MAY
CONTINUE TO BLOW AROUND SNOW AND CAUSE VISIBILITY ISSUES AT
TIMES INTO THIS MORNING.
THE DRIER AIR WILL BRING A BREAK IN WINTRY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLOUDIER SKIES AND UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS THAT MAY STICK AROUND INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE CROSSES THROUGH. THIS WAVE MAY BRING
ANOTHER INCREASE IN CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT NOT EXPECTING
ANY PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND WINDS SHOULD EASE GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE BREAK IS SHORT-LIVED WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION ARRIVING WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THIS IS OWED TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES, AND
AS LIFT INCREASES, CAMS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING
LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADING NEW HAMPSHIRE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN
MOVE INTO WESTERN ME THEREAFTER. THERE ARE STILL A TIMING
DIFFERENCES OF A FEW HOURS AMONG THE SOLUTIONS, WHICH WILL MAKE A
BIG DIFFERENCE IN TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE COMMUTE, BUT NEW
HAMPSHIRE APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO SEE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL IN THE
MORNING, ALTHOUGH STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN ME. THIS WILL BE A
QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM, BUT THE TIMING DIFFERENCES OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGEST THAT LIGHT SNOW MAY STICK AROUND LONG ENOUGH
TO IMPACT AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
ME FROM THE MIDCOAST/KENNEBEC VALLEY REGIONS. AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY 1-3" BUT COULD BE A CORRIDOR CLOSER TO 4"
ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN ME WITH A POTENTIAL SECONDARY LOW NEAR THE
COAST. LASTLY, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE
DAY, AND THE HRRR AND NAMNEST ARE SUGGESTING SOME HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
OR SQUALLS MAY ACCOMPANY IT AS IT APPROACHES NH FROM THE WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE STORM TRACK, THE LOW MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY
ACROSS THE REGION, AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW NO GREATER THEN A
30% CHANCE OF REACHING 1 INCH OF SNOW ANYWHERE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE.
A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD OF WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD UP AT THE END OF THE WEEK,
ALLOWING FOR A THAW INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECASTED IN THE 40S ON SATURDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED. SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A LOW APPEARS TO PASS OVER QUEBEC
WITH A DRY COLD FRONT POSSIBLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE PASSING
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO WORK THEIR WAY BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...VFR IS EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS
TODAY. THE EXCEPTION IS MVFR CIGS BEING AT HIE ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS. WIND GUSTS MAY
BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 25-30 KT THIS MORNING BEFORE EASING THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR PREVAILS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CALMING WINDS.
CEILINGS BEGIN TO THICKER AND LOWER TOWARD DAY BREAK WEDNESDAY
AS LIGHT SNOW APPROACHES THE AREA, BUT VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK:
REST OF WEDNESDAY: WIDESPREAD IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
IN LIGHT SNOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR MOST SITES, WITH LOCAL
MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE MTNS.
THURSDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
FRIDAY: VFR EXPECTED IN THE NORTH, WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
AT COASTAL SITES FOR LIGHT SNOW.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
NORTHWESTERLY GALES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, AND ONCE
THESE DROP OFF, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THE REST OF
THE DAY. CONDITIONS THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT BUT
WILL LIKELY COME RIGHT BACK OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THEN VEERS WESTERLY
AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
SCA WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY MORNING WILL SLOWLY LOWER BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON FRIDAY
BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHERLIES AND STRENGTHEN TO SCA LEVELS ON
SATURDAY. SEAS OF 3-5FT ARE FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6FT ON SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-
152>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151.
DISCUSSION...BARON/COMBS/PALMER
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