490
FXUS61 KGYX 030642
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
242 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN A STRONG COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY.
2. A POLAR AIR MASS ARRIVES BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MANY LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS MAY SEE THEIR FIRST HARD
FREEZE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG, TODAY SHOULD BE SUNNY. HIGHS WILL
BE AROUND 60 FAR INTERIOR AND NEAR 70 ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF NH AND THE ME COASTAL PLAIN.
CLEAR AND CALM TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. AT
THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL GET COLD ENOUGH TO
REQUIRE FROST HEADLINES WHERE THE PROGRAM IS STILL ACTIVE.
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION ON SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CLOUDS ARE GOING
TO BUILD IN EARLY WHICH IS GOING TO KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID-60S. THESE CLOUDS ARE ALSO GOING TO MAKE FOR A
MORE MILD NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES ON MONDAY AND IT CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKE IT IS GOING TO BE MOSTLY DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS,
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. THE BIGGER THEME WILL BE WIND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MARKEDLY WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS OF 25 TO
35 MPH, POSSIBLE HIGHER IF LOW LEVEL MIXING IS MAXIMIZED.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE REAL COOL DOWN ARRIVES BY TUESDAY MORNING. VERY LIKELY THE
COLDEST WEATHER SINCE THE SPRING TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES PLUNGING TO BETWEEN 0 AND -7C BY TUESDAY MORNING
DEPENDING ON MODEL OF CHOICE. EVEN 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING ON GUIDANCE. AS SUCH, EVEN MODEST
RADIATIONAL COOLING WOULD SUGGEST A WIDESPREAD FREEZE TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER THIS IS CONTINGENT ON THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLING, AND GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY INDICATING 40-50+ KTS AT 850
MB DRIVEN BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, SO WOULD SAY THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST HERE IS NOT YET HIGH CONFIDENCE. RIGHT NOW THE
BEST ODDS FOR BELOW FREEZING MINIMUMS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
IN THE INTERIOR, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S-LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE
COASTAL PLAIN.
WON'T TAKE MUCH MIXING ON TUESDAY TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT,
SO CAN EXPECT A BLUSTERY DAY WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN WITH FULL MIXING HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE 40S
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH 55-60 ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. WINTER CLOTHING
MAY NOT BE A BAD CHOICE ESPECIALLY IF HEADING OUT EARLY IN THE DAY.
DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTING OVERHEAD. WHILE 850 MB TEMPS WON'T BE QUITE AS
COLD WED MORNING, MUCH GREATER RADIATIONAL COOLING IS LIKELY AS WINDS
SLACK. IT IS LIKELY A LARGER SWATH OF WESTERN ME AND
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL NH SEE THEIR FIRST HARD FREEZE OF THE FALL,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY VALLEYS/TYPICAL COLD SPOTS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
FAIR WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE
MID 50S-LOW 60S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DOES NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG BRINGS LOCAL LIFR TO LEB AND HIE THROUGH MID MORNING TODAY,
WITH FOG THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY
GUSTS AROUND 30 KT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: VFR PREVAILS ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND MAY ELEVATE SEAS AND WIND GUSTS TO SCA CRITERIA.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/EKSTER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page