203
FXUS61 KGYX 091038
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE THIS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WNW WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30 MPH TODAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR WEATHER SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
FROST POTENTIAL TO THE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT.
2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY AS
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT CROSS THE
NORTHEAST. MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BRING
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WHILE MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
EXPERIENCE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. HI RES GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE WIND FIELDS WHILE MIXING TO AROUND
700 MB SEEMS LIKELY. MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSFER IS AROUND 25 KTS
WITH WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE 30-35 KTS. THIS
WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO PEAK GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH WITH SPORADIC
HIGHER GUSTS. THERE WILL ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER GUSTS WITH
ANY SUSTAINED SHOWER.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THAT WILL
ALLOW GUSTY WINDS TO SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY WILL BE A
PLEASANT DAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER TO LOW 60S SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE GULF
OF MAINE SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE IT WILL STILL LIKELY PROVIDE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO LOWS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
WITH FROST POTENTIAL ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAINFALL TO THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY
BE LIGHT WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM AROUND 1/2" ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWESTERN ME TO LESS THAN 1/10" OF AN INCH ACROSS
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS LIKELY LATER MONDAY WITH
ABOVE AVG HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S SOUTH OF THE
MTNS.
AFTER A WARM MONDAY NIGHT, A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERY WEATHER AND GUSTY SW WINDS BEFORE TURNING
TO THE NW TUESDAY NIGHT AS CAA INCREASES BEHIND THE FRONT. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL MID TO LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TODAY. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA AT HIE THAT COULD BRING TEMPO MVFR
OR LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 12Z
WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS RELAX TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED VFR. VALLEY FOG CANNOT BE
RULED OUT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER IN LOW CIGS AND PERIODS
OF SHOWERS. SOME VFR IS LIKELY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.
MARINE
WEST WINDS FRESHEN THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS
AFTER DAY BREAK...PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY STAY BELOW 5 FEET TODAY. WINDS SHIFT NW TONIGHT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS WHILE GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
OUTER WATERS OFFSHORE OF THE MID COAST. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS
THOUGH 25 KT GUSTS WON'T BE LONG LIVED OR WIDESPREAD, PRECLUDING
A SCA. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR QUIET CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SE OF THE
WATERS SUNDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE
SW. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NEAR THE WATERS MONDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT CROSSING LATE TUESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/SCHROETER/TUBBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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