613
FXUS61 KGYX 121019
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
619 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN IS QUICKLY MOVING OUT WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
WARM DRY DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RAIN ENDS THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO MILD CONDITIONS TODAY.
2. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR TONIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING ON TUESDAY. MAINLY A COLD, BENEFICIAL RAIN IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY WILL SEE SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
3. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TURN DRIER AND BREEZY BEFORE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS ARRIVES
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND, NY WILL SCOOT ENE THIS
MORNING WITH STEADY RAIN LARGELY COMING TO AN END BY DAY BREAK.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WHILE AREAS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. IT WILL BE MILD TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S
WITH SPOTS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS MAKING A RUN INTO THE LOW 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MARCH SSW THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TODAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. THIS HIGH WILL BE WELL POSITIONED TO SET UP
COLD AIR DAMMING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS SOME SUBTLE VARIABILITY IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
AMONGST GUIDANCE WHICH WILL IMPACT THE SWATH OF HEAVIEST QPF AS
WELL AS THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER IN MAINE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SWATH OF +1
INCHES OF QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A MULTI MODEL CONSENSUS
PLACING THAT SWATH FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE MID
COAST AND POINTS NORTH. TO THE SOUTH AMOUNTS DROP OFF WITH FAR
SOUTHERN NH FORECAST TO RECEIVE LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
IT WILL BE A COLD RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 40S WHILE THERMAL PROFILES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND POINTS
NORTHEAST MAY SUPPORT A PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY. AROUND JACKMAN, ME PROFILES FROM THE 00Z HRRR
SUGGEST THE COLUMN WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW TUESDAY MORNING
WITH A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN RAIN TUESDAY EVENING.
FARTHER TO THE SW PROFILES FROM THE HRRR SHOW A WARM NOSE ALOFT
WITH A SUB-FREEZING LAYER GENERALLY BETWEEN 6,000 FEET AND 1,500
FEET. THIS WOULD SUPPORT FREEZING RAIN NEAR MOUNTAIN SUMMITS
WHILE VALLEYS ABOVE 1,500 FEET MAY SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET.
AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD TUESDAY NIGHT PROFILES WILL LIKELY
WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN WITH PRECIPITATION TAPERING OFF LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TRAILING
FRONT BRING AS END TO THE PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE, AND MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY EARLY MORNING. THE MIDCOAST WILL LIKELY BE
THE LAST TO CLEAR LATER IN THE MORNING. SKIES LOOK TO END UP
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS BY PEAK
HEATING, SO GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S (AND MAYBE EVEN INTO THE LOW 70S FOR SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE). NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS GOING TO KEEP CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BANKED UP TO THE TERRAIN SO TEMPERATURES HANG MORE IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60F. AS SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW, BUT THE CLOUDS
ARE GOING TO KEEP LOWER ELEVATIONS ABOVE FREEZING. WARMER 850 MB
TEMPERATURES MOVE IN WITH THE RIDGING ALOFT, SO WHILE SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS SEES MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES STILL ONLY
FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS
IT MOVES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON THURSDAY, WHICH TIGHTENS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN TO OUR WEST. IT IS GOING TO BE A BREEZY DAY FOR SURE WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WE
COULD TAP INTO THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET ALOFT AND SEE WIND GUSTS
NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES. THIS IS GOING TO HAVE TO CONTINUE TO BE
WATCHED AS POSITIONING OF THE JET IS GOING TO MAKE THE
DIFFERENCE AND GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING IN MORE EASTWARD, BUT
AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN WIND GUSTS AT LEAST UP TO 35 MPH IS HIGH.
WE COULD SEE A RINSE AND REPEAT SOLUTION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE FIRST
ONE, BUT THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING THIS ONE BEING STRONGER. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY , BUT THAT IS ALL I AM WILLING
TO SAY ABOUT THAT AT THIS POINT. WHAT CATCHES MY EYE MORE IS THE
SIGNAL FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS SATURDAY IF THIS LOW BOMBS
OUT IN THE PROXIMITY OF NOVA SCOTIA LIKE MOST GLOBAL MODELS ARE
DEPICTING. THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODEL HAVE BEEN ESPECIALLY
BULLISH SHOWING WIDESPREAD 40+ MPH GUSTS. THE GFS DOESN'T QUITE
SHOW THE STRENGTHENING THE OTHERS DO AND THEREFORE SUGGESTS A
SOLUTION MORE SIMILAR TO THE TUESDAY SYSTEM. WE WILL SEE HOW
THINGS TREND, BUT A SIGNAL LIKE THAT BEARS WATCHING.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT...LOW CIGS AND RAIN WILL BRING A MIX OF MVFR TO
IFR OR LOWER THROUGH AROUND 12Z THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS MORNING WITH VFR LIKELY BY MID DAY AND LASTING
INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY NE WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT NEAR THE COAST
WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR TO IFR.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: AREAS OF IFR OR LOWER IN CIGS AND RAIN
WITH SOME LLWS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AS RAIN GRADUALLY COMES
TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST, BUT A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED
FOR MOST SITES, ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
TO CAUSE TEMPO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR AND RAIN SHOWERS AT HIE. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AT HIE. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY REMAIN GUSTY UP TO
25 KT.
THURSDAY: MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE DAY AT HIE
DUE TO RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VFR WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
FRIDAY: IFR TO MVFR POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE EXITS EAST THIS MORNING WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SCA THRESHOLDS TODAY. A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE WATERS
TONIGHT BRINGING NE WINDS GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS. WINDS
SHIFT E TO SE TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS NEAR THE MID
COAST LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES
SOMETIME IN THE MORNING WITH WINDS TURNING WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY. SCA LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY GALES OVER THE OUTER WATERS, AS
A SECONDARY FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THERE MAY BE BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH BUILDS OVERHEAD BUT WILL
POTENTIALLY BE FOLLOWED BY MORE SCA CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY
GALES FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE/FRONT
APPROACH AND CROSS THROUGH.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/SCHROETER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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