406  
FXUS61 KGYX 282152  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
452 PM EST WED FEB 28 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WARM AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL COME TO AN  
ABRUPT HALT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.  
THIS WILL USHER IN A ONE DAY RETURN TO WINTRY CONDITIONS ON  
THURSDAY AS ARCTIC AIR POURS INTO THE REGION WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN WEDNESDAY  
UNDER GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND  
ON ON FRIDAY AND INTO THIS WEEKEND...RETURNING TO VALUES THAT  
ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF MARCH. THE NEXT  
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS COMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS  
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF THE REGION.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
UPDATE...  
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE  
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 40S ACROSS MAINE WITH 50S  
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE EARLY THIS EVENING. LATEST RADAR CONTINUES TO  
SHOW A FINE LINE REPRESENTING THE STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS  
CENTRAL NEW YORK STATE MOVING EAST AT ABOUT 45 MPH. THE LATEST  
HRRR SOLUTION BRINGS THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE 01Z  
THROUGH 05Z TIME RANGE. THEREAFTER, BLUSTERY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS  
WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR OVERNIGHT.  
 
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RIVERS FOR RISES AND ICE MOVEMENT  
TONIGHT.  
 
PREV DISC...  
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  
* STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFT WESTERLY WITH ARRIVAL OF FINE LINE  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. LOCALLY DAMAGING  
WINDS POSSIBLE.  
* WARM TEMPERATURES...RAINFALL...AND MELTING SNOW PACK MAY LEAD TO  
SOME RIVER ICE MOVEMENT/ICE JAM POTENTIAL.  
* PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES BRING THE RISK OF SLICK SPOTS DEVELOPING  
ON AREA ROADWAYS.  
 
PATTERN: EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE TROUGH  
PUSHING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS  
POURING INTO THIS AREA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS NOW  
WORKING IT/S WAY THROUGH NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA. AHEAD OF THIS  
FEATURE...THERE HAS BEEN SHOWERS AND FOG IN THE WARM ADVECTION  
REGIME ACROSS OUR AREA...HOWEVER...NOT MUCH SIGNIFICANT  
PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN EXCEPT FOR SOME GOOD /NEARLY 1.5"/ TOTALS  
ALONG THE MIDCOAST. THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER AROUND  
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG  
WINDS ALONG AN EXPECTED FINE-LINE. BEYOND THIS...THE SHARPLY  
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND REFREEZING WATER ON ROADS WILL BE OUR  
CONCERN.  
 
THROUGH THIS EVENING: SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ESP SOUTH OF THE  
MOUNTAINS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN WAA REGIME. FINE  
LINE OF CONVECTION NOW PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND PA WILL  
STILL BE WEST OF OUR AREA AT 7PM/00Z WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER  
40S TO MID 50S FROM NE TO SW. FOG HAS THICKENED ACROSS WESTERN  
MAINE AND THIS WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE  
RAIN...AND THEN EVENTUAL MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT  
DISPERSES THE FOG.  
 
TONIGHT: COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA FROM WEST TO EAST IN  
THE 8-11PM TIMEFRAME. SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES AND MESOSCALE GUIDANCE  
SHOW A DIMINISHING MUCAPE PLUME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH PERHAPS  
100-200 J/KG STILL AVAILABLE OVER NH. MOST OF THIS INSTABILITY IS  
ELEVATED WITH A WEAK INVERSION REMAINING IN THE LLEVELS. THUS...THE  
THREAT FOR CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS PRETTY LOW  
BUT WILL CONTINUE ISO TSRA MENTION OVER NH. HOWEVER...MIXING  
IMPROVES SOME IMMEDIATELY AHEAD AND ESPECIALLY RIGHT BEHIND THE  
FRONT SO EXPECT ANY POWER OUTAGE ISSUES DUE TO STRONG WIND  
GUSTS MAY COME WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
RAIN MAY BRIEFLY MIX WITH/CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING WITH A  
COATING POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THIS IN THE  
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE..WE/LL WATCH TEMPERATURES CRASH WITH SINGLE  
DIGIT VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS BY DAYBREAK...TEENS AND 20S TO  
THE SOUTH...WITH WIND CHILLS HOVERING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW  
ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE  
SOUTH. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF WIND...SO A TRUE FLASH FREEZE  
SEEMS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF PUDDLES AROUND  
FROM THE RAIN/MELTING SNOW WHICH WILL REFREEZE WHICH WILL  
COMBINE WITH ANY FALLEN SNOW TO BRING SOME SLICK TRAVEL  
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.  
 
NO CHANGES TO THE FLOOD AND WIND HEADLINES. FROM 24 HOURS AGO TO  
TODAY...THE WIND THREAT HAS REMAINED SIMILAR WHILE LESS RAINFALL  
IS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH WITH LOW WIND  
CHILLS EXPECTED.  
 
PATTERN: MOBILE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD TO START THE DAY ON  
THURSDAY WILL PUSH EAST OF NEW ENGLAND WITH HEIGHTS BEGINNING TO  
BUILD BY THE AFTERNOON. DEEP WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH OUR  
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CENTERING ON WINDS AND WIND CHILLS IN  
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS.  
 
THURSDAY: WINTER RETURNS FOR A DAY ON THURSDAY WITH T8S AROUND -18C  
WITH CAA PRETTY MUCH OVER BY DAYBREAK. ARRIVING AIRMASS IS VERY DRY  
WITH PWATS BELOW 0.1"/DEWPOINTS FALLING BELOW ZERO IN SPOTS.  
IMPRESSIVE LLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MIXING ALL THE WAY TO H7  
INDICATED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. THERE WILL BE A ROBUST PRESSURE  
GRADIENT OVERHEAD...BUT WINDS ALOFT AREN/T OVERLY IMPRESSIVE DURING  
THE DAY WITH THAT GRADIENT WEAKENING. THUS...50KT H8 WINDS AROUND  
DAYBREAK DECREASE TO 40KTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY. EXPECT WINDS TO  
REMAIN NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS  
OVER SOUTHERN NH AND CURRENT WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES LOOK GOOD.  
DESPITE DEEP MIXING...THE CHILLY AIRMASS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE  
TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST OTHER  
SPOTS...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS SE NH AND COASTAL ME REACHING  
30. THE WIND WILL CERTAINLY MAKE IT FEEL COLDER...WITH WIND CHILLS  
LIKELY BELOW 0F FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SINGLE  
DIGITS AND TEENS TO THE SOUTH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
LATEST GUIDANCE AND BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WINDS WILL  
REMAIN QUITE BREEZY WITH GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 35 TO 40 MPH THURSDAY  
EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL THEN  
FOLLOW A DOWNWARD TREND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS BROAD HIGH  
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND THE  
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THAT SAID, WINDS CHILLS WILL STILL BE IN  
THE SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS BUT COULD FALL A FEW  
DEGREES BELOW AT TIMES. FARTHER NORTH, WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO  
RANGE FROM -5F TO -15F.  
 
TEMPERATURES REBOUND QUICKLY FOR FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER  
MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, SETTING UP A SOUTHWEST FLOW.  
GOOD MIXING TO AROUND 850MB SUPPORTS WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH AND  
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW-MID 40S FOR SW MAINE AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NH.  
THE WINDS OFF THE CHILLY GULF OF MAINE WILL KEEP THE MIDCOAST AND  
AUGUSTA REGIONS A BIT COOLER AND IN 30S.  
 
FOR THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RUN ABOVE  
NORMAL BUT MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODELS ARE IN  
DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OFF THE  
DELMARVA REGION LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY, AND WHILE IT'S EXPECTED  
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA, HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST IT TRAVELS IS IN  
QUESTION. EITHER WAY, AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IS  
LOOKING MORE PROBABLE, WHICH WILL RESULT IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS  
ALONG WITH FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS.  
THIS WOULD BE PRIMARILY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT PER THE GFS  
AS THE LOW MOVES MORE OUT TO SEA BY SUNDAY, BUT THE ECMWF  
STALLS THE LOW MORE TO OUR SOUTH, POTENTIALLY KEEPING MORE  
CLOUDS/SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY. IF THERE DOES END UP BEING MORE  
CLOUDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HIGHS WON'T BE AS WARM, BUT  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY MILD.  
 
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED GOING INTO NEXT  
WEEK WITH GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER  
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHWARD, JUST OFFSHORE OF THE  
EASTERN SEABOARD AND APPROACHING NEW ENGLAND IN THE MON-TUES TIME  
FRAME ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WITH TIMING  
AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES OF THESE FEATURE, I HAVEN'T DEVIATED FROM  
THE NBM POPS/TEMPS. WITH THE MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, PRECIP WILL  
BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...  
 
SUMMARY: LOW CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND FOG CONTINUE THROUGH THIS  
EVENING BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION...WITH  
GUSTY WINDS...AND RAIN ENDING AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS  
WITH CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DAY THURSDAY.  
 
RESTRICTIONS: CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE WHERE THEY  
HAVEN/T ALREADY WITH VLIFR/LIFR/IFR EXPECTED IN SHRA THROUGH  
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 02-06Z TIMEFRAME. BEYOND THIS...A  
BRIEF MIX WITH/CHANGE OVER TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITATION  
ENDS WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING TO VFR WITHIN 3 HOURS OF  
FRONTAL PASSAGE. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY.  
 
WINDS: SOUTHERLY WINDS 10G20KTS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 20G30KTS BEFORE  
SHIFTING WEST IN THE 02-06Z TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTS TO 40KTS POSSIBLE  
AS THIS HAPPENS. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BEYOND THIS FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD THURSDAY 20G30KTS WITH SOME GUSTS 35-40KTS  
POSSIBLE.  
 
LLWS: SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 1.5-2KFT LAYER WILL REMAIN 40-50KTS  
THROUGH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE 02-6Z TIMEFRAME. ADDITIONAL  
LLWS IS NOT EXPECTED BEYOND THIS THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
LIGHTNING: THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY IN THE 00-03Z TIMEFRAME  
THIS EVENING FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ACROSS NEW  
HAMPSHIRE...WITH THESE CHANCES DECREASING AS YOU MOVE EAST INTO  
MAINE.  
 
LONG TERM...VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. W/WNW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TO  
30 TO MAYBE 35 KT INTO THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT BUT SHOULD MOSTLY FALL  
IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WINDS TURN OUT OF THE  
SW FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE'S  
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE  
COULD BRING LOW CEILINGS, FOG, AND SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THERE'S  
POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TERMINALS  
CURRENTLY FAVORED FOR SEEING MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. ANOTHER WEAK  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS  
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS AGAIN LOW.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM...NO CHANGES TO MARINE HEADLINES WITH MISM1 REACHING  
STORM FORCE GUSTS TODAY WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH  
GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. FOG WILL  
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS UNTIL A STRONG COLD FRONT SHIFTS THE  
STROUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERLY IN THE 02-06Z TIMEFRAME.  
 
LONG TERM...W/WNW WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO GUST TO OR IN EXCESS  
OF GALE FORCE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE OUTER WATERS, BUT THESE  
SHOULD DROP OFF PRIOR TO DAY BREAK ON FRIDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE  
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  
THERE MAY EVEN BE A BRIEF PERIOD FRIDAY MORNING WHERE WINDS FALL  
BELOW SCA LEVELS, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST  
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 KT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY  
SATURDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY  
BELOW SCA LEVELS, ALTHOUGH A WIND SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY OR  
NORTHERLY LOOKS TO OCCUR EITHER LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY WITH A WEAK  
LOW PRESSURE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE WATERS. WITH THIS FLOW PATTERN  
OVER THE WEEKEND, WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A RETURN OF FOG. ANOTHER LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF  
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS NEXT WEEK, BUT TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS VERY UNCERTAIN.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. RAINFALL  
THROUGH TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ALONG THE MIDCOAST  
AND IN SOME ISOLATED UPSLOPE REGIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER,  
THE SNOWMELT WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO THE TOTAL RUNOFF  
AND FLOODING POTENTIAL. THE HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION  
WITH INCREASING WINDS ARE SUPPORTING RAPID MELT TO AN ALREADY  
RIPENED SNOWPACK. THE SNOWMELT RUNOFF WILL BE PEAKING AROUND  
THE TIME THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATER TONIGHT. THE  
AREA CAN EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOWMELT RUNOFF, WITH 0.25 TO  
0.75 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF COMBINED RUNOFF  
WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND COULD CAUSE SMALL STREAM FLOODING,  
PARTICULARLY IN THE STEEP SLOPES IN THE MOUNTAINS. OVERLAND  
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE FROZEN GROUND CONDITIONS  
RESULTING IN NUISANCE ROAD FLOODING. THE SHARP TEMPERATURE DROP  
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WILL HELP SHUT DOWN THE RUNOFF ENDING THE  
FLOOD THREAT. THE MAINSTEM RIVERS WILL RISE BUT SHOULD STAY  
WITHIN BANKS WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS INTO MINOR LEVELS. LOOKING  
AHEAD, SNOWMELT WILL ACCELERATE THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUE INTO  
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP RIVERS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH OVER  
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
HERE'S A LOOK A OUR RECORD HIGH AND RECORD WARMEST LOW  
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY.  
 
DATE | PORTLAND | CONCORD | AUGUSTA |  
---------------------------------------------------------------------  
WEDS. | R. HIGH: 58F(2018)| R. HIGH: 65F(1877)| R. HIGH: 51F (2018)|  
FEB 28 | R. LOW: 36F(2000) | R. LOW: 41F(1910) | R. LOW: 39F (2000) |  
---------------------------------------------------------------------  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012>014-  
020>022-025>028-033.  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-012-013-  
018>020-023>025-033.  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MEZ014-021-022-  
026>028.  
NH...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ002>004.  
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>015.  
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>152.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ153-154.  
 

 
 

 
NEAR/SHORT TERM...CANNON  
LONG TERM...COMBS  
 
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