271
FXUS61 KGYX 081824
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
224 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. IT WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OVER THE
NEXT WEEK, BUT LOOKS UNLIKELY TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT DROUGHT
RELIEF.
2. GUSTY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY THURSDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THEN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE BACKDOOR FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT I AM NOT ANTICIPATING TOO MUCH WEATHER
FROM THAT FEATURE ANY LONGER. IT MAY, VERY LATE TONIGHT, PROVIDE
A FOCUS FOR SOME POTENTIAL SHOWERS AS WAA KICKS IN. WHILE CAMS
DO SHOW SOME SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY OVER THE AREA, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY. SO I OPTED TO GO WITH SPRINKLES
RATHER THAN SHOWERS TO PUT SOME MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE COOL NORTH OF THE FRONT, BUT
SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE RETURN FLOW STARTS OVERNIGHT READINGS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 50S.
TEMPS LOOK LIKE A SIMILAR SPLIT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WED.
WARM READINGS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND 60S TO NEAR 70 NORTH OF
IT. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GET GUSTY, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY,
UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH.
RAIN SHOWERS BEGIN TO ARRIVE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE
DIURNAL PEAK OF INSTABILITY IS GOING TO LINE UP BETTER FOR THE
FINGER LAKES INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY, WITH CONVECTION DYING AS IT
APPROACHES THE CONNECTICUT RIVER. MUCH LIKE SIMILAR WEAKENING
COLD FRONTAL EVENTS THIS SUMMER, MUCH OF THE AREA IS LOOKING
LIKE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS QPF. A FEW LUCKY LOCATIONS MAY
SEE UP TO AROUND A HALF INCH. WE WILL TAKE ANY RAINFALL, BUT
THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE AN EVENT THAT WILL SIGNIFICANT IMPROVE
DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE TREND IS GOING TO BE TOWARD DRIER WEATHER AND CLEARER SKIES
THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
ST. LAWRENCE SWEEPING THE FRONT THROUGH. THE FRONT WILL DROP THE
DEWPOINTS BACK TO COMFORTABLE LEVELS, BUT CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAINTAINS 850 MB TEMPERATURES +12-15 C SOUTH
OF THE MOUNTAINS. MIXING PROFILES FROM FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK
GOOD, SO ASSUMING WE DO CLEAR OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-80S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS COOLER AIR IS GOING TO BE FILLING IN
BEHIND THE FRONT AND CAPPING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-70S.
A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET ALSO SETS UP OVER THE REGION WITH 850 MB
WINDS MORE IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE. AS IT STANDS NOW MOST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MIXING UP TO 850 MB LOOKS LIKELY, BUT
UNSURPRISINGLY ONLY THE NAM IS CONVINCED OF HIGHER POTENTIAL.
THAT BEING SAID I HEAVILY TAILORED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM TO GET THE 30-35 MPH GUSTS IN THERE THAT
WOULD BE EXPECTED IF WE ARE MIXING DOWN 25-30 KNOT WINDS. A MUCH
COOLER NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS WINDS GO CALM AND SKIES TREND
MOSTLY CLEAR. NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID-40S, WITH UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE FOOT
HILLS AND THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ENDING UP
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY MAY ALSO BE A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY WITH GRADIENT WIND GUSTS
20- 25 MPH AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO ATLANTIC
CANADA. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL MAKE FOR A SEASONABLY COOL DAY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS TEMPERATURES LIKELY MAX OUT IN THE
60S. SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE A MORE SEASONABLE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE
A GOOD CANDIDATE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
AND WINDS CALM. I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF LOW TEMPERATURES END
UP IN THE LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE
THAN SLIDES OVERHEAD SATURDAY BRINGING CALMER CONDITIONS. THIS
IS LIKELY TO BE THE PICK OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS THE BOARD
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFF THE COAST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE RESULTING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KEEPS LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE MORE UNSETTLED AS GLOBAL MODELS
WANT TO BRING ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH IN THE SUNDAY PM/MONDAY
WINDOW, BUT GLOBAL ENSEMBLES DON'T HAVE A VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND WITH HOW THINGS HAVE GONE THIS
SUMMER I DON'T WANT TO SPECULATE. THEREFORE, I AM FINE WITH THE
NBM ADVERTISING SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
WITH CHANCE SHOWERS IN THE NORTH (AIDED BY THE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW).
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU WED.
SOME LOCAL IFR OR LOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY TONIGHT, INCLUDING LEB AND HIE, BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
DISRUPT OR DELAY THAT. SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER SUNSET
WED. LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER IS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER, BUT FAIRLY
QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE ONCE WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY EARLY THU.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KT, POSSIBLY
AS HIGH AS 35 KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AT HIE
AND LEB BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: GENERALLY VFR, WITH MVFR POSSIBLE AS
SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
WED AFTERNOON. THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WED NIGHT. WHILE
IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE, LOW LEVEL WINDS LOOK STRONG ENOUGH
FOR WIDESPREAD GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING ABOVE
5 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS. I HAVE GONE AHEAD AN ISSUED A SCA TO
COVER THIS PERIOD INTO THU.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF OUR COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT THE TREND WILL BE DOWNWARD
SO BY THURSDAY NIGHT WAVE HEIGHTS AND WIND GUSTS SHOULD FALL
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. HIGH PRESSURE THAN BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST, EVENTUALLY SLIDING OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. GENERALLY, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER
THE WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ151-153.
DISCUSSION...BARON/LEGRO
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