204
FXUS61 KGYX 062201
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
601 PM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS NH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BASED ON
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND REFINED POPS THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
BASED ON LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE. A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS
STARTING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER UPSTATE NY WITH THE SEMI DISCRETE
CELLS TO THE SOUTH NEAR ALBANY INTO WESTERN MA. WILL BE WATCHING
THIS BROKEN LINE AS IT APPROACHES THE CT VALLEY AROUND 8 PM FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THESE STORMS PUSHING TO THE NH/ME
BORDER AROUND 10 PM.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THIS EVENING, WITH A SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE.
2. A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES ON SUNDAY, BRINGING MORE CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
3. A DRY AND SEASONABLE START TO NEXT WEEK WILL GIVE WAY TO A
MORE UNSETTLED SECOND HALF WITH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN RISING
ABOVE NORMAL AND POTENTIALLY POSING A HEAT RISK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE,
WHILE A STALLED FRONT SITS NEAR THE MAINE/NH BORDER. THE COOLER
AIRMASS ACROSS MAINE LIMITS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ANY CONVECTION LIKELY TO BE ELEVATED
IN THE COOLER AIRMASS.
THE FOCUS FOR THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE CAPE IS BUILDING AND SHEAR IS
INCREASING. DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS EXTENDING ACROSS
SOUTHERN NH. SEVERE STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT NORTH AND EAST OF
THESE AREAS, BUT CHANCES QUICKLY DROP INTO THE COOLER AIRMASS.
THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ENDS LATE THIS EVENING AS STORMS MOVE
OFFSHORE, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME TOMORROW
AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. SHOWERS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS DURING THE MORNING,
AND THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT.
CHANCES FOR PRECIP GRADUALLY LESSEN AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD,
BUT MOST PEOPLE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ALL THE
WAY TO THE COASTLINE BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
TOMORROW ALSO LOOKS WARMER FOR MUCH OF MAINE AS WESTERLY FLOW
OVERNIGHT SCOURS OUT THE LOW LEVEL COOL AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF
THE STALLED FRONT. WITH THIS SET UP, HIGHS WARM FROM THE MID 70S
THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS, TO THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
THROUGH SOUTHERN NH. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY. THE FRONT
THEN PUSHES OFFSHORE BY LATE TOMORROW EVENING, WITH CLEARING AND
DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN MONDAY AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH MIDWEEK BRINGING A STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER WITH BUILDING
HEAT. DESPITE MUCH OF THE AREA POTENTIALLY SEEING TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TOWARD MIDWEEK, BEING ON
THE DOWNSTREAM SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THIS TIME SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP DEWPOINTS BEARABLE. HOWEVER, AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA, A TRANSITION TO WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WOULD BEGIN
TO BRING DEWPOINTS UP AND START TO INTRODUCE SOME HEAT RISK IN
THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES HAVE
AN UPPER LOW DIVING OUT OF QUEBEC AND INTERRUPTING THE RIDGE
(CURRENTLY ON THURSDAY) WHICH WOULD BRING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE GEFS CAMP KEEPS THE RIDGE, WITH
ALL CAMPS GOING BACK TO A RIDGE BUILDING IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A MORE MOIST AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK, SO CONTINUED RIDGING WOULD INCREASE HEAT RISK.
AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH ALL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY AT LEB,
MHT, CON, AND PSM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OUTSIDE
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS, VFR GENERALLY PREVAILS AT THESE
TERMINALS INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HIE, AUG, AND RKD STAND THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS
AND LOW CEILINGS. NEAR MVFR CEILINGS LOOK MOST LIKELY AT PWM.
CEILINGS IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING SUNDAY, AND THEN BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ARE LIKELY FROM LATE MORNING
AT HIE, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS. VFR THEN
RETURNS AND LIKELY PREVAILS SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED, BUT
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING ABOUT TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD, CROSSING THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME SEAS TO NEAR 5FT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OUTER COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY IN SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND
20KT. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE WATERS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE AND
ONLY SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARON/CLAIR/SCHROETER
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