995  
FGUS73 KIWX 132104  
ESFIWX  
 
- KIWX 131238  
WRKMSL  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
400 PM EDT THU FEB 13 2020  
 
... ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC  
FORECAST OUTLOOK NUMBER 1...  
   
..MAUMEE RIVER BASIN NORTHWEST OHIO
 
   
..UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA
 
 
   
..MINOR LONG RANGE FLOOD RISK
 
 
THIS IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS IN THE  
MAUMEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AND FOR  
THE UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA. IN THE TABLE  
BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE  
RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT  
90 DAYS.  
 
FOR EXAMPLE, THE MAUMEE RIVER AT FORT WAYNE, INDIANA HAS A FLOOD  
STAGE OF 17 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE  
THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 19.9 FEET.  
 
BLUFFTON, INDIANA ON THE WABASH RIVER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET.  
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE  
TO OR ABOVE 12.1 FEET.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
...VALID FEBRUARY 18 2020 - MAY 18 2020...  
 
MAUMEE RIVER BASIN...  
LOCATION FS(FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
 
SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO  
MONTPELIER OH 12.0 8.4 9.5 10.6 12.0 12.9 14.0 14.8  
NEWVILLE IN 12.0 8.8 10.4 11.8 12.7 13.6 14.8 15.5  
ST. JOE FT W. IN 12.0 4.6 5.9 7.5 9.6 11.2 15.8 19.8  
 
SAINT MARYS RIVER  
DECATUR IN 17.0 10.9 12.4 14.3 16.1 18.6 20.6 21.9  
MULDOON BRIDGE IN 14.0 6.6 7.6 8.9 10.4 12.5 17.4 17.9  
 
MAUMEE RIVER  
FORT WAYNE IN 17.0 8.1 10.8 13.3 15.5 17.6 19.9 22.2  
DEFIANCE OH 10.0 3.4 4.3 5.1 6.4 7.3 9.3 10.2  
NAPOLEON OH 12.0 4.7 6.7 8.1 10.1 11.7 14.3 14.7  
 
TIFFIN RIVER  
STRYKER OH 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.7 13.7 14.4 15.4 16.5  
 
BLANCHARD RIVER  
OTTAWA OH 23.0 17.3 17.5 20.4 22.3 23.1 24.7 25.7  
 
AUGLAIZE RIVER  
FORT JENNINGS OH 13.0 6.0 7.7 10.1 12.0 13.9 15.7 17.0  
DEFIANCE OH 21.0 10.6 11.6 13.8 15.9 17.3 20.9 21.4  
 
UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN...  
LOCATION FS(FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
 
WABASH RIVER  
LINN GROVE IN 11.0 10.0 10.6 11.7 12.6 14.2 15.2 15.4  
BLUFFTON IN 10.0 6.9 7.6 9.3 10.3 12.1 13.9 14.5  
WABASH IN 14.0 9.1 9.5 10.7 11.6 12.8 13.8 15.8  
LOGANSPORT IN 15.0 7.4 7.8 8.3 8.9 10.0 10.9 11.5  
 
TIPPECANOE RIVER  
ORA IN 12.0 9.2 9.6 10.6 11.4 12.5 13.8 13.8  
WINAMAC IN 10.0 7.0 7.2 8.2 9.0 10.0 11.5 11.7  
 
MISSISSINEWA RIVER  
MARION IN 12.0 4.5 5.4 6.1 7.4 8.5 9.7 10.5  
 
EEL RIVER  
N. MANCHESTER IN 11.0 8.7 9.5 10.4 11.5 13.1 15.3 16.2  
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS  
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER,  
SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF  
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF  
PROBABILITIES, THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING  
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE A  
PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC  
PREDICTION SERVICE.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON AHPS AT  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX, UNDER RIVERS AND LAKES.  
   
..SNOW COVER/SOIL CONDITIONS
 
 
AFTER AN ABNORMALLY WET JANUARY, SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS ABOVE  
NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE MAUMEE AND UPPER WABASH RIVER BASINS. THIS  
MAKES THE AREA MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO SPRING FLOODING.  
 
PRIMARILY LIGHT, FRESH SNOW COVER OF 2 TO 5 INCHES COVERED THE  
REGION.  
THIS AMOUNT OF SNOW CONTAINED WATER EQUIVALENT MEASUREMENTS OF A FEW  
TENTHS OF AN INCH. ONLY RECENTLY THE GROUND HAS REFROZEN, BUT WILL  
LIKELY THAW EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW SLOW INFILTRATION TO GREATER  
DEPTHS. THIS EPISODIC FREEZE AND THAW CYCLE WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY  
MARCH.  
   
..WEATHER OUTLOOK
 
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK SHOWS THAT  
THERE IS AN INDICATION TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND  
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE CPC EXPERIMENTAL 3 TO 4 WEEK OUTLOOK INDICATES THAT THERE IS A  
SLIGHT INDICATION FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THERE ARE  
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE, NEAR NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
 
THIS SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR AN EARLIER SPRING GREEN-UP THAT  
WOULD PROVIDE AN OFFSET TO THE OVERALL FLOOD POTENTIAL. IT WOULD  
ESPECIALLY LESSEN THE CHANCE FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FLOOD EVENT WITH  
MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING.  
   
..RIVER CONDITIONS
 
 
CURRENT STREAMFLOW AND WATER LEVELS ON LARGER STEM RIVER LEVELS  
ARE ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL. ONGOING MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING  
IN THE UPPER WABASH VALLEY BASIN. THESE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS BODE  
FAVORABLY FOR ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD EVENTS THIS SPRING.  
   
..OVERALL FLOOD RISK
 
 
THERE IS CERTAINLY A LONG RANGE FLOOD RISK. THE AREA WILL BE  
VULNERABLE WITH RESPECT TO TRACKS OF STORM SYSTEMS THIS SPRING.  
ADDITIONAL MINOR RIVER FLOODING APPEARS INEVITABLE, WITH A MODERATE  
FLOOD EVENT POSSIBLE THIS SPRING.  
   
..FLOOD TERMINOLOGY
 
 
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY  
DAMAGE. HOWEVER, SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.  
 
THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF  
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TO  
SAVE PROPERTY.  
 
THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION AND  
PROPERTY DAMAGE, USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF PEOPLE  
AND LIVESTOCK AND THE CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY ROADS.  
 
THE NEXT LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED ON FEBRUARY  
27 2020 FOR THE UPPER WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS.  
 

 
MURPHY  
 
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