482  
FGUS73 KIWX 142057  
ESFIWX  
 
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
457 PM EDT THU MAR 14 2024  
 
...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC  
FORECAST...  
 
THIS IS THE 90 DAY PROBABILISTIC FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS IN THE  
MAUMEE RIVER BASIN IN NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO AND FOR  
THE UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN IN NORTHERN INDIANA. IN THE TABLE  
BELOW THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE  
RIVER COULD RISE TO OR ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT  
90 DAYS.  
 
FOR EXAMPLE, THE MAUMEE RIVER AT FORT WAYNE, INDIANA HAS A FLOOD  
STAGE OF 17 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE  
THE RIVER WILL RISE TO OR ABOVE 19.0 FEET.  
 
BLUFFTON, INDIANA ON THE WABASH RIVER HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 10 FEET.  
IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THE RIVER WILL RISE  
TO OR ABOVE 9.8 FEET.  
 
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS  
...VALID MARCH 14 2024 - MAY 31 2024 ...  
 
MAUMEE RIVER BASIN...  
LOCATION FS(FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
 
SAINT JOSEPH RIVER OHIO  
MONTPELIER OH 12.0 8.4 8.9 10.7 11.6 13.1 14.0 14.9  
NEWVILLE IN 12.0 8.6 9.6 11.0 12.0 12.9 14.0 15.5  
ST. JOE FT W. IN 12.0 3.2 4.1 6.2 8.1 9.8 13.5 15.5  
 
SAINT MARYS RIVER  
DECATUR IN 17.0 8.4 10.0 12.6 15.0 18.3 20.1 21.0  
MULDOON BRIDGE IN 14.0 5.3 6.3 7.8 9.9 12.6 15.2 18.0  
 
MAUMEE RIVER  
FORT WAYNE IN 17.0 7.5 8.8 11.5 13.7 17.3 19.0 19.8  
DEFIANCE OH 10.0 3.2 3.8 4.7 6.0 6.8 8.3 9.0  
NAPOLEON OH 12.0 4.9 5.5 7.2 9.2 10.7 12.3 14.1  
 
TIFFIN RIVER  
STRYKER OH 11.0 7.7 9.3 11.1 12.9 13.8 15.0 16.4  
 
BLANCHARD RIVER  
OTTAWA OH 23.0 14.8 17.0 18.5 20.2 22.9 24.4 25.6  
 
AUGLAIZE RIVER  
FORT JENNINGS OH 13.0 4.7 5.3 8.0 10.2 12.3 15.2 17.6  
DEFIANCE OH 21.0 9.8 10.9 11.8 14.5 16.5 19.5 20.2  
 
UPPER WABASH RIVER BASIN...  
LOCATION FS(FT) 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%  
 
WABASH RIVER  
LINN GROVE IN 11.0 7.5 8.4 9.3 10.5 11.9 13.9 14.7  
BLUFFTON IN 10.0 4.4 5.2 6.1 7.5 9.8 11.4 12.7  
WABASH IN 14.0 8.1 8.5 9.5 10.9 12.4 14.4 17.0  
LOGANSPORT IN 15.0 6.3 6.8 7.6 8.3 9.5 10.8 11.2  
 
TIPPECANOE RIVER  
ORA IN 12.0 7.6 8.2 9.4 10.3 11.5 12.8 13.4  
WINAMAC IN 10.0 5.6 6.2 7.0 7.8 8.9 10.2 11.0  
 
MISSISSINEWA RIVER  
MARION IN 12.0 3.6 4.2 5.3 6.4 7.9 10.5 13.3  
 
SALAMONIE RIVER  
PORTLAND IN 11.0 5.9 6.1 6.8 7.8 9.2 10.4 15.0  
WARREN IN 12.0 8.3 8.6 9.0 9.9 10.7 12.9 16.3  
 
EEL RIVER  
N. MANCHESTER IN 11.0 7.6 8.3 9.1 11.2 13.1 15.8 17.2  
 
THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT  
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE  
YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE  
RIVER, SOIL MOISTURE, SNOW MELT AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE  
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE  
RANGE OF PROBABILITIES, THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG  
RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC  
FORECASTS ARE A PART OF NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ADVANCED  
HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE.  
 
ADDITIONAL SUPPORTIVE DATA AND EXPLANATIONS ARE AVAILABLE ON  
AHPS AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX, UNDER RIVERS AND LAKES.  
   
..SNOW COVER/SOIL CONDITIONS
 
 
GIVEN THE RECORD TO NEAR RECORD BREAKING MILD CONDTIONS WITH HIGHS  
IN THE 70S LAST WEEK, NO SNOW COVER OR ICE ON RIVERS WAS PRESENT.  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS DURING THE PAST 60 DAYS HAVE BEEN ABOVE NORMAL  
WITH CALCULATED SOIL MOISTURE INCREASING WITH VALUES TODAY NEAR  
NORMAL OR RISING ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TODAY.  
   
..WEATHER OUTLOOK
 
 
THE OVERAL MILD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, ALTHOUGH ENSO  
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION TO A LA NINA PATTERN  
BY MID TO LATE SUMMER, FAVORING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN. RAINFALL AT  
THIS TIME THROUGH THE END OF MAY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE NORMAL  
AMOUNTS NEAR 9 1/2 INCHES.  
   
..RIVER CONDITIONS
 
 
AT THE ONSET, 8 RIVERS WERE AT OR FORECAST TO GO INTO FLOOD STAGE  
ACROSS THE MAUMEE AND UPPER WABASH OVER NORTHERN INDIANA AND  
NORTHWEST OHIO. LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM MARCH 15TH  
THROUGH MARCH 22ND WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE RIVERS TO SUBSIDE DURING  
THIS TIME.  
   
..OVERALL FLOOD RISK
 
 
GIVEN THE MOIST SOIL STATE WITH RECENT RAINFALL, THE OVERALL FLOOD  
RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL INTO MAY.  
 
   
..FLOOD TERMINOLOGY
 
 
THE TERM MINOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE MINIMAL OR NO PROPERTY  
DAMAGE. HOWEVER, SOME PUBLIC INCONVENIENCE IS POSSIBLE.  
 
THE TERM MODERATE FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE THE INUNDATION OF  
SECONDARY ROADS. TRANSFER TO A HIGHER ELEVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TO  
SAVE PROPERTY.  
 
THE TERM MAJOR FLOODING IS USED TO INDICATE EXTENSIVE INUNDATION  
AND PROPERTY DAMAGE, USUALLY CHARACTERIZED BY THE EVACUATION OF  
PEOPLE AND LIVESTOCK AND THE CLOSURE OF BOTH PRIMARY AND SECONDARY  
ROADS.  
 
THE NEXT LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN  
FEBRUARY 2025 FOR THE UPPER WABASH AND MAUMEE RIVER BASINS.  
 

 
 
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