783
FXUS63 KIWX 162320
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
720 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS STARTING
TOMORROW. TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
EXTENSIVE LAKE ENHANCED STRATOCU FIELD STREAMING ACROSS THE NE
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FEW LIGHT RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED ON
RADAR, BUT LOW LEVELS WAY TOO DRY TO GET ANYTHING TO THE GROUND.
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND DEPARTURE OF WEAK DISTURBANCE. MIXING OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE CLOSER TO SUNSET. THIS WILL SET UP A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE 40S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS MAYBE DIPPING BRIEFLY INTO THE UPPER
30S.
COLDEST AIR WILL BE SHIFTING AWAY ALREADY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER AND MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AS NW
FLOW WON'T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTERN PACIFIC LOW MOVING TO W
NEBRASKA BY 00Z WEDS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO SOMEWHAT
ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK (INTO THE LOWER 70S), BUT ANY MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE RATHER MUTED WITH BEST GULF MOISTURE REMAINING WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND AT BEST LOW TO MAYBE MID 50 DEWPOINTS
ARRIVING. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SWEEPING IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS, BUT SOME CONCERNS STILL LINGER
REGARDING PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. EC COMMENCES A
BIT AHEAD OF THE GFS WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES RESULTING. AT
MOST CHC POPS WARRANTED AT THIS STAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT,
WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SWEEPING IN LATE
THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SPARK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH EC DRY AS WELL AS SLOWER (MORE LATE
FRI). WILL LEAVE SLGT CHC SHOWERS IN FOR FRI AFTERNOON. EVEN
COLDER AIR THAN WE ARE EXPERIENCING NOW ARRIVES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO 0C OR SLIGHTLY COLDER.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021
STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL MIXING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ADVECTION.
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY AIR AND STEADY
GRADIENT PRECLUDING ANY FOG/BR FORMATION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW GIVEN VERY DRY PROFILES. WEST WINDS MAY GUST
UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES BUT GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
SYNOPSIS...FISHER
SHORT TERM...FISHER
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...AGD
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