900  
FXUS63 KIWX 212354  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
754 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 422 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2019  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED LATE  
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THIS RAINY PATTERN WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND  
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. MUCH WARMER WEATHER WITH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID 80S FROM THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2019  
 
RESIDUAL LINE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAS FINALLY MOVED  
NORTHWARDS THIS AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVERAGE AND COOL  
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE  
TO REACH THE MID 50S. A SECONDARY AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS  
DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY30 AS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE  
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A FEW LIGHTNING  
STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WHICH IS MUCH  
CLOSER TO THE SHORTWAVE AND DID WHERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS  
WHERE EARLIER ON IN THE DAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDER IN THE CWA ARE  
FAIRLY LOW GIVEN OUR PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER, AND THE TRACK OF THE  
SHORTWAVE WILL STAY WELL SOUTH. THESE SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO  
DIMINISH IN AREAL EXTENT IN THE 5-7PM EDT TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL  
START A RELATIVE LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY UP TO MIDNIGHT.  
 
AFTER MIDNIGHT, UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL  
SEND A FRONT, WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT, ACROSS IL  
AND INTO WESTERN IN. AS STORMS SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY, THEY WILL GRADUALLY LOSE  
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET MOVES  
OVER THE CWA. FRONT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN ZONES BY TOMORROW  
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW SOME INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ACROSS NW OHIO  
AND EASTERN IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR  
STORMS TO BECOME MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. GIVEN THAT SOILS  
REMAIN SATURATED, ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL LIKELY PROLONG OR  
AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2019  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, THE REMNANT CENTRAL PLAINS LOW WHICH  
WILL BRING RAIN TOMORROW WILL START TO EJECT ACROSS THE UPPER  
MIDWEST. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA AND PROVIDE A  
FOCUS FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS. WITH PWATS REMAINING IN THE  
1.25-1.5" RANGE, THIS ROUND OF STORMS COULD BRING PERIODS OF  
HEAVY RAIN. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THIS WILL PROLONG OR AGGRAVATE  
ONGOING FLOODING. FRONT BECOMES STALLED OVER THE AREA THURSDAY  
NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL IN RESPONSE  
TO A BUILDING SUB-TROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SE US. THIS WILL BRING  
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND  
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S. UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN  
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND A VIGOROUS LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2019  
 
LARGE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ENTERING WESTERN ILLINOIS  
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST, WITH THE WESTERN EDGE POSSIBLY  
REACHING KSBN BY 7Z IN A MUCH WEAKER FASHION. STILL SOME CHANCE  
FOR THUNDER ALONG THE LEADING EDGE BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT SO HAVE  
OPTED FOR TEMPO THUNDER AT KSBN OVERNIGHT. KEPT THUNDER OUT OF  
KFWA AS INSTABILITY WILL BE SERIOUSLY LACKING THERE AND  
QUESTIONABLE EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST THE PRECIP MAKES IT. COULD SEE  
SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS, BUT SHOULD BE  
SHORT DURATION.  
 
RAIN SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT DURING THE LATER MORNING WITH CLEARING  
SKIES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER/CM  
SHORT TERM...CM  
LONG TERM...CM  
AVIATION...FISHER  
 
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