156
FXUS63 KIWX 091723
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
123 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO COOLER AND LESS HUMID
LATER THURSDAY AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO
EARLY EVENING. A LOCALLY STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF I 69 BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM EDT.
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY, MI
BEACHES ALONG LAKE MI TODAY, AND FOR ALL OF BERRIEN COUNTY, MI
AND LA PORTE COUNTY, IN THURSDAY. BREAKING WAVES AND CURRENTS
ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
MAIN FOCUS OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRANSITION FROM MUGGY AND AT TIMES
WET CONDITIONS TO A MUCH MORE PLEASANT PERIOD LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND.
SORT OF A DISJOINTED SETUP ACROSS THE REGION WITH MODELS CONTINUING
TO STRUGGLE ON HANDLING OF CURRENT PRECIP AND EVOLUTION INTO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SMALL LINES OF SHOWERS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BAND OF RAIN FROM PORTIONS
OF LOWER MI TO NEAR LK MI AND POINTS SW WHERE POCKETS OF CLEARING
AND WEAK CONVERGENCE GIVES JUST ENOUGH TO POP THE SHOWERS. BY IN
LARGE THESE HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL AREA MOST
LIKELY BISECTING THE CWA FROM SW TO NE. AHEAD OF THE, SPC MESO SHOWS
LIMITED INSTABILITY (500-1500 J/KG MUCAPE) BUT BEST SHEAR DISPLACED
BEHIND THE INSTABILITY. WHILE MODELS DISAGREE ON CURRENT HANDLING OF
KEY FEATURES, THEY ALL SEEM TO HAVE SOME SEMBLANCE OF AGREEMENT ON
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS JUST OUTSIDE OUR AREA
FROM PORTIONS OF NY AND OH TO THE SW. NEWEST SPC DY1 OUTLOOK REFLECTS
THIS WITH A FURTHER TRIMMING ON THE NW FRINGE OF THE MARGINAL RISK
AREA. SOME SORT OF POPS WILL BE NEEDED UNTIL THE TROUGH SETTLES JUST
OUTSIDE THE AREA AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE FLOW AND LIKELY WASHES
OUT. THE MAIN COLD FRONT ISN'T TOO FAR AWAY (CENTRAL U.P OF MI TO
EASTERN IA) BUT IS GOING TO MOVE LITTLE UNTIL GETTING A BETTER PUSH
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
THIS TROUGH MAY GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MO AND IL AND COULD TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF
SURVIVING INTO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HAVE LEFT POPS VERY
SUPPRESSED FOR NOW.
BEYOND THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER TO BRING MUCH MORE
PLEASANT (AND DRY) CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL
OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT ONCE AGAIN NEXT
WEEK WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A WAVE PUSHING
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON THE BULK
OF THE ENERGY FROM THIS BEING KEPT AWAY FROM THE AREA, BUT MODEL
BLEND HAVE THROWN IN PERIODS OF SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS WITH THE
GREATEST FOCUS TOWARDS MID WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED POCKETS OF THUNDER DEVELOPED EARLIER
THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT SLOW TO DEVELOP ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, WITH THE
MAIN COLD FRONT STILL LAGGING BEHIND BACK IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH MAINLY LOW
END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES PREVAILING
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS EAST OF I-69 AND
SOUTH OF US 24, WHICH IS WHERE I WOULD EXPECT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TO OCCUR TODAY WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS. RAIN SHOULD WRAP
HERE AROUND 20Z AT KSBN AND AROUND 22Z AT KFWA. AS THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH, WINDS SHIFT FROM WEST AT AROUND 10 KTS TO
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY CLEARING. A MAINLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY; A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF US 24
BUT HAVE KEPT KFWA DRY FOR NOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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