210
FXUS63 KIWX 290740
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
340 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STEADILY INCREASING TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
- PERIODIC RAIN AND STORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHEST
CHANCES WILL BE TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY (60-
80%).
- A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER MIDWEEK WITH ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNTIES FOR RAIN THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST, WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST AND THE EASTERN CONUS. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST; WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS, THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY ENHANCED
BY INCREASED MID LEVEL MOISTURE. CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES. PREVAILING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING WAA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO STEADILY WARM. STRONG WAA PEAKS
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, WITH LOCATIONS SOUTH OF US 24
MAKING A RUN FOR 80 DEGREES. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK BEFORE MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD THIS
WEEK. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE GRADUAL, BUT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. BY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 850MB WILL
ALLOW FOR DEWPOINTS TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND STORMS ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONCENTRATED MAINLY NORTH OF I-80/I-90 WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT AND THERE WILL BE LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.
A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA IN LOWER
MICHIGAN.
WITH A BREEZY AND WARM TUESDAY AHEAD, WE ARE MONITORING POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SYSTEM'S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
ON TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. DESTABILIZATION SHOULD
OCCUR SOMETIME TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE, BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, THE
ENVIRONMENT STILL LOOKS FAVORABLE IN SOME ASPECTS BUT THE OVERALL
SETUP HAS ME QUESTIONING WHETHER OR NOT THE TIMING WILL BE THE
BIGGEST FACTOR THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IS SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WITH A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AND A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET (MODERATELY
STRONG) TUESDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE WILL HAVE
BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TUESDAY EVENING AS WELL. DESPITE
THIS, TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT REMAINS THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AS IT
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE. MODELS HAVE THE COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH TUESDAY LATE EVENING OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH
STORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT. INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES MAY PEAK WELL
BEFORE THE FRONT GETS HERE THOUGH. WITH WANING INSTABILITY AND LAPSE
RATES AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY, WE MAY STILL GET THUNDERSTORMS BUT THEY
MAY NOT BE ABLE TO REACH STRONG TO SEVERE THRESHOLDS. THE TIMING OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BEST SHEAR TUESDAY EVENING APPEARS
DISJOINTED WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES THAT OCCUR
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES CRASH ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS LIKELY BEING REACHED FOR THE DAY AROUND MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN BE IN THE 40S DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. MILD AIR THEN
GRADUALLY RETURNS AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
THURSDAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT MAY STALL OVER THE OHIO AND MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEYS. MORE RAIN IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND TOO AS
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY APRIL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINAL THIS PERIOD WITH
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS LATE THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WILL
PICK UP TO AROUND 13KTS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 22KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...MCD
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