087
FXUS63 KIWX 032327
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
727 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TRENDING WARMER INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE 80S.
- CHANCES (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ENTER THE FORECAST NORTH
OF THE US 24 CORRIDOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
- BETTER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (50-80%) AREA-WIDE ON SATURDAY WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- MAINLY DRY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
AN EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD WILL SINK OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR STRETCH OF
PLEASANT WEATHER TO END THE WEEK WITH WARMER HIGHS INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RAMPS UP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH. A MORE DRAMATIC INCREASE IN
COLUMN MOISTURE REMAINS DELAYED UNTIL LATER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THIS INCOMING HIGH THETA-E AIR IN CONJUNCTION WITH SEVERAL MID
LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE AREA IN FLATTENED QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT COULD YIELD PERIODIC SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS,
PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE. THE
BULK OF AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A RETURN TO DRIER WX
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE AXIS LIKELY GETS SHUNTED JUST TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST OF THE IWX CWA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 727 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SINKING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
OVERHEAD BREAKS DOWN, WARM ADVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
INCREASING SURFACE DEW POINTS. EVEN WITH ALL OF THIS, BY THE TIME WE
GET TO THURSDAY EVENING, THE NEAREST MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IS MORE
TOWARDS THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YET. AS SUCH, WILL
CONTINUE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
GIVEN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, SOUTHEAST
WINDS VEER SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
WIND GUSTS REACHING 20 KTS AT SBN BY DAY'S END.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ROLLER
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