077
FXUS63 KIWX 061722
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
122 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE UPCOMING 7 DAYS WILL FEATURE A CONTINUED STRUGGLE BETWEEN DRY
AND SOMEWHAT COOLER CONDITIONS VS WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH THE GREATEST
CONFIDENCE OF AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL OCCURRING WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS VERY CLEARLY THE DIVIDING LINE BEING
REPRESENTED BY AN ARE OF STRATUS/STRATOCU FROM E IA INTO SW IL AND
TO CENTRAL KY. THE MUGGY 70+ DEWPOINTS ARE TO THE WEST OF THIS AND
60S (EVENTUALLY SOME 50) DEWPOINTS TO THE NORTHEAST. WITH TIME, THIS
HIGHER MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL WORK BACK, ARRIVING TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN US DISTURBANCE SET TO
FLATTEN THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO SURGE BACK NORTH.
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RETURN BACK INTO THE 60S WITH SOME MED RANGE MODELS
SUGGESTING SOME 70S AS WELL. THIS COMBINED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH WED INTO WED NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. SOME FINER DETAILS STILL NEED
TO BE WORKED OUT REGARDING COVERAGE, INTENSITY AND TIMING. MODEL
BLENDS HAVE BEEN RATHER CONSERVATIVE IN PAST DAYS, BUT HAVE BEGAN TO
INTRODUCE LIKELY (60 TO 70%) POPS WITH DECAYING PRECIP WED MORNING
NW AND RENEWED DEVELOPMENT SE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE, TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS SHOULD
FALL ONCE AGAIN AS WE AWAIT THE NEXT WAVE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, WHICH
RIGHT NOW LOOKS TO REMAIN MAINLY NW OF THE AREA. LOWER POPS EXIST IN
THIS TIME FRAME FOR THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
IT IS DRY NOW THAT HIGH PRESSURE HAS TAKEN OVER. DEW POINTS HAVE
FALLEN BACK TOWARDS 60 DEGREES FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES. GIVEN THIS
ADJUSTMENT, FOG POTENTIAL ENTERS THE MIND AND FWA APPEARS TO HAVE
FAVORABLE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS RADIATIONAL COOLING IN
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, BUT AVIATION GUIDANCE DOESN'T SEEM TO WANT TO
CREATE FOG. PERHAPS DRY ADVECTION HAS WON OUT. WILL GO WITH DRY VFR
CONDITIONS FOR NOW, BUT STILL THINK IT'S POSSIBLE WE END UP WITH
SOME AT LEAST GROUND FOG IN PLACES. OTHERWISE, LIGHT EAST WINDS
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...ROLLER
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