138
FXUS63 KIWX 102336
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
736 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TONIGHT WITH SOME FROST. LOWS IN THE 30S.
- BECOMING VERY WARM IN THE DAYS AHEAD. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.
- STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT, THERE IS AT LEAST A 20% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST DAILY AS A NUMBER OF
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD WITH A SOUTHEAST US RIDGE SENDING GULF
MOISTURE POLEWARD, CHANNELED AGAINST A DESERT SOUTHWEST TROUGH.
A COOL, CRUMMY DAY TO THE NORTH OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. HERE,
TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 40S WITH A STEADY NORTHWEST WIND.
FARTHER SOUTH, 60S PREVAIL WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE (20-40%) OF RAIN
UNTIL THE BOUNDARY CLEARS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY
OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, MOVES OVERHEAD RESULTING IN A
CHILLY AND EVENT FROSTY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. WE'RE STILL
SHORT OF OUR MEDIAN FINAL SPRING FREEZE, AND THE MOST RECENT
MICHIGAN FRUIT REPORTS DEPICTS SENSITIVITY IN THE 20S, SO, WE'LL
CONTINUE ON HEADLINE-FREE. WARMTH IN THE COMING WEEK WILL
RAPIDLY ACCUMULATE GROWING DEGREE DAYS, LIKELY ACTIVATING THE
GROWING SEASON IN THE DAYS TO COME.
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST SUNDAY, THE FIRST OF MANY UPPER-LEVEL
IMPULSES LIFTS THROUGH TEXAS AND SPILLS ATOP THE RETREATING HIGH.
WE'LL CONTINUE TO CARRY 20-30% CHANCE POPS, BUT KNOW SUNDAY WILL NOT
BE A WASHOUT. SHOWERS, AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS, ARE MORE WIDESPREAD
MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN. THE MORNING TIME OF ARRIVAL AND A
LACK OF INSTABILITY OUGHT TO PRECLUDE THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK
LOCALLY. INSTEAD, ATTENTION WILL TURN TO TUESDAY (AND WEDNESDAY TO A
LESSER EXTENT) WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTING A SEVERE WEATHER RISK. A MUCH BETTER COLOCATION OF
INGREDIENTS BUILDS TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS OVER THE
MIDWEST AND INSTABILITY EXCEEDS 1,000 J/KG AND SHEAR EXCEEDS 40
KNOTS. THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT, AND IT CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A
SCENARIO WHERE MORNING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS NEEDS TO CLEAR BEFORE
ANY AFTERNOON OR EVENING STORM INITIATION. STAY TUNED. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT CLEARS OUR AREA WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A
CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER-AIR PATTERN
RESULTING IN A CONTINUED FLOW OF DISTURBANCES ACROSS A SOUTHEAST US
RIDGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT FRI APR 10 2026
A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH USHERING
IN DRY AIR. THIS NORMALLY ALLOWS FOR A PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, WITH HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING AND A MOIST GROUND, THESE
TAFS INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR BR THAT IS A POSSIBILITY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING, BUT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IS THERE TO INCLUDE THIS GROUP.
WINDS OVERNIGHT GO LIGHT AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM
NORTHERLY TONIGHT TO EASTERLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS TO STAY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND GUSTS TO STAY LESS THAN 20
KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...ROLLER
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