783  
FXUS63 KIWX 162320  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
720 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021  
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES  
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS STARTING  
TOMORROW. TONIGHT WILL BE SEASONABLY CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER  
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021  
 
EXTENSIVE LAKE ENHANCED STRATOCU FIELD STREAMING ACROSS THE NE  
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FEW LIGHT RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED ON  
RADAR, BUT LOW LEVELS WAY TOO DRY TO GET ANYTHING TO THE GROUND.  
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING  
AND DEPARTURE OF WEAK DISTURBANCE. MIXING OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER  
WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE CLOSER TO SUNSET. THIS WILL SET UP A  
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SITUATION WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO  
THE 40S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS MAYBE DIPPING BRIEFLY INTO THE UPPER  
30S.  
 
COLDEST AIR WILL BE SHIFTING AWAY ALREADY ACROSS THE REGION WITH  
HIGH TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER AND MUCH MORE SUNSHINE AS NW  
FLOW WON'T BE AS PRONOUNCED AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALOFT WILL BE  
EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021  
 
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF  
OF THE PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO AN EASTERN PACIFIC LOW MOVING TO W  
NEBRASKA BY 00Z WEDS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO SOMEWHAT  
ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK (INTO THE LOWER 70S), BUT ANY MOISTURE  
RETURN WILL BE RATHER MUTED WITH BEST GULF MOISTURE REMAINING WELL  
SOUTH OF THE AREA AND AT BEST LOW TO MAYBE MID 50 DEWPOINTS  
ARRIVING. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
SWEEPING IN WEDS NIGHT INTO THURS, BUT SOME CONCERNS STILL LINGER  
REGARDING PHASING WITH A NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. EC COMMENCES A  
BIT AHEAD OF THE GFS WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES RESULTING. AT  
MOST CHC POPS WARRANTED AT THIS STAGE.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT,  
WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT SWEEPING IN LATE  
THURS NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE GFS AND CANADIAN SPARK OFF A FEW  
SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE WITH EC DRY AS WELL AS SLOWER (MORE LATE  
FRI). WILL LEAVE SLGT CHC SHOWERS IN FOR FRI AFTERNOON. EVEN  
COLDER AIR THAN WE ARE EXPERIENCING NOW ARRIVES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM  
WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO 0C OR SLIGHTLY COLDER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2021  
 
STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF  
DIURNAL MIXING AND SLOWLY INCREASING SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ADVECTION.  
VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY AIR AND STEADY  
GRADIENT PRECLUDING ANY FOG/BR FORMATION. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES  
ANTICIPATED TOMORROW GIVEN VERY DRY PROFILES. WEST WINDS MAY GUST  
UP TO 20 KTS AT TIMES BUT GRADIENT WILL BE WEAKER THAN TODAY.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ043-046.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...FISHER  
SHORT TERM...FISHER  
LONG TERM...FISHER  
AVIATION...AGD  
 
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX  
 
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX  
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  
 
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