571
FXUS63 KIWX 171821
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
221 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- REMAINING WARM AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- RAIN SHOWER CHANCES (20-40%) ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
STAGNANT WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN THROUGH FRIDAY
(AND PROBABLY INTO SATURDAY) WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE REGION. A ROUND OF HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH
SOUTHEAST CANADA LIKELY FORCES A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT INTO THIS
RIDGING LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WASHING OUT NEAR THE
US 30 CORRIDOR. THIS SHOULD SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN OUR NORTHEAST WITH LACKING FORCING AND WASHED OUT NATURE SUGGESTING
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME DIURNAL CU NEAR THE FRONT.
CHANCES, ALBEIT LOW (20-40%), FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ENTER
THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE BLOCKING PATTERN
GRADUALLY WEAKENS WITH BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING SHIFTING EAST TOWARD
THE MS RIVER VALLEY. LEADING SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES ADVECT BETTER
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO SWING THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL US AND
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE FIRST WAVE ON SUNDAY APPEARS WEAKER WITH
LINGERING DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR POTENTIALLY LIMITING SHOWER COVERAGE.
BETTER SHOWER AND ISO STORM PROSPECTS ARRIVE AROUND
MONDAY/TUESDAY AS A MORE AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EJECTS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, THOUGH DAILY POPS REMAIN ON
THE LOW SIDE GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE. TEMPS
GENERALLY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OTHERWISE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. LOW TEMPS LIKELY NEAR CROSSOVER VALUES
TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG POSSIBLE,
BEST CHANCES AT KFWA WHERE A TEMPO MVFR GROUP WAS ADDED.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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