744
FXUS63 KIWX 081736
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
136 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED EARLY SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-69, ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
REMAINING QUIET ACROSS THE NATION'S MIDSECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MID-LATITUDE FLOW FOCUSED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CONUS WHILE A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NOTED OVER FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS. IN THE
COMING WEEK, WE'LL SEE A VARIETY OF MODEST TEMPERATURE SWINGS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN.
THIS AFTERNOON, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE TUMBLED TOWARD 35-45%
THANKS TO DEEP MIXING FROM ALOFT. A FEW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH
ARE SPROUTING UP ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT DRY
SPELL, THESE INGREDIENTS AMOUNT TO A NONZERO RISK OF FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
A WEAK WARM FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING 850-MB FLOW WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES (20-30% CHANCE) ON FRIDAY,
PRIMARILY OVER THE GREATER SOUTH BEND AND MICHIANA AREA. CROSS
SECTIONS REMAIN RATHER DRY BELOW 8,000 FT WHILE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL
FORCING IS ACROSS ILLINOIS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TOWARD AND
EAST OF THE I-69 CORRIDOR. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE A RUN FOR 80 DEGREES.
OUR PRIMARY RAIN CHANCE THIS FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE FROM
ANY REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS, YET NOT EVERYONE SEES RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES ARE GREATEST ALONG AND EAST OF I-69 WITH RAIN AMOUNTS
GENERALLY LESS THEN 0.5" SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL, NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED FROM ISAIAS. IT WILL BE VERY WARM
SATURDAY (WIDESPREAD LOW-80S) AS A 582DM RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
MIDWEST. NOT QUITE AS WARM TO FOLLOW SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND CYCLONIC
NORTHERLY FLOW IN PLAY.
A COLD FRONT IS IN THE CARDS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHILE THE
CONUS BECOMES DOMINATED BY A DEEP, COLD TROUGH DESCENDING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE TRANQUIL AND DRY CONDITIONS.
EXPECT VFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. WEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME CALM
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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