622
FXUS63 KIWX 061109
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
709 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH
LOWS IN THE 20S AND HIGHS AROUND 40.
- WARMER WEATHER RETURNS LATER THIS WEEK, ALONG WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026
MIDLEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT VORT MAX ON THE CYCLONICALLY SHEARED SIDE
CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH OUR CWA AND GENERATING SOME LIGHT RAIN.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT BY 12Z BUT AN ADDITIONAL VORT MAX WILL
ARRIVE LATER TODAY AND MAINTAIN GENERAL CYCLONIC LOW/MIDLEVEL FLOW
OVER MICHIGAN. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES IN OUR FAR N/NE ZONES
DURING THE DAY (AIDED BY SOME MARGINAL LAKE INSTABILITY) BUT EXPECT
ANY RAIN TO BE VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED SO WILL HOLD WITH SILENT 10
POP. THE PASSAGE OF THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TONIGHT WILL MARK THE
ARRIVAL OF SOME MUCH COLDER AIR. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO NEARLY -12C BY
EARLY TUE MORNING (COLDEST IN OUR NE). LATEST CONCENSUS GUIDANCE
CAME IN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER BUT STILL WELL INTO THE 20S FOR THE
ENTIRE CWA. THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT OFFICIALLY BEGUN FOR OUR AREA
YET SO NO HEADLINES PLANNED. HIGHS TUE STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
LOW 40S DESPITE FULL AFTERNOON SUN.
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST TUE NIGHT/WED AND RETURN FLOW/WAA PUSHES
HIGHS BACK TO AROUND 60F BY WED AFTERNOON AND AROUND 70F BY THU. IN
SIMILAR FASHION TO PREVIOUS EVENTS, A CLOSED LOW THEN CROSSES
ONTARIO AND SENDS A WEAK, INCREASINGLY ORPHANED, FRONT THROUGH OUR
AREA THU NIGHT/FRI. THE FORECAST THEREAFTER BECOMES CHALLENGING AS
THIS ORPHANED FRONT STALLS SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY
LIFTS BACK NORTH AS DEEP TROUGHING REDEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND DOWNSTREAM SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS COULD
LEAD TO A WET PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BUT THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE WITH SOME SOLUTIONS KEEPING
THE MAIN ZONE OF PRECIP JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. WATER LEVELS WILL
HAVE A CHANCE TO RECEDE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK CLOSELY FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 707 AM EDT MON APR 6 2026
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE ARE A FEW SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD DECKS AROUND 3500-7000FT-BUT
OTHERWISE THERE IS A CLEARING BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH OF MVFR CEILINGS
MOVES INTO KSBN THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE MVFR
CEILINGS STAY NORTH OF KFWA, AS THE LOWER CLOUDS LATE THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON ARE INFLUENCED BY LAKE MI AND ANOTHER INCOMING
TROUGH. THERE ARE A FEW SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2500-3500FT NEAR
KFWA AS OF THIS WRITING-DON'T ANTICIPATE MVFR BUT IT'S POSSIBLE IT
DROPS BRIEFLY BEFORE THE LOWER CLOUDS EXIT WITH THE FRONT. GUSTY W-
NW WINDS SHIFT NORTH BY LATER TONIGHT, DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY.
GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...MCD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page