746  
FXUS63 KIWX 031049  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
649 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 611 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020  
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVE  
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS  
EVENING. IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY. IT WILL BE DRY SATURDAY  
THROUGH MONDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020  
 
A DECAYING MCS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN HAS LEFT THE  
AREA UNDER A FAIRLY DENSE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD. THESE CLOUDS WILL  
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY, AND MAY ALSO  
INHIBIT DESTABLIZATION.  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING.  
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY ZONAL, BUT A A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE  
WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT AND AID IN KICKING OFF CONVECTION. THE  
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH, WHERE THERE SHOULD BE LESS  
INFLUENCE FROM THE HIGH CLOUDS, AND 2000-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE  
BASED CAPE IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, DCAPE AND SHEAR WILL ONLY BE  
MARGINAL. THEREFORE, THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREATS WILL BE BRIEF  
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE  
GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE STRONG STORMS ARE  
EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MID  
EVENING.  
 
THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, SO SHOWERS  
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH  
OF HWY 24.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020  
 
THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST  
AREA ON THURSDAY, SO A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS OR  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A BETTER  
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK NORTHERN  
STREAM WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR  
THE WEEKEND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.  
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY  
FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 611 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020  
 
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION FROM WI TO  
LOWER MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT HAD MOVED SOUTH TO ABOUT WARSAW AND THEN  
BECAME STATIONARY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS STARTED TO MOVE BACK NORTH  
AND SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER  
TODAY. CAMS AND OTHER MODELS REALLY STRUGGLING EVEN JUST  
INITIALIZING CONVECTION. EARLIER THIS MORNING, SUBSTANTIAL  
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 500 J/KG PER SPC MESO  
ANALYSIS WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA, BUT DIURNAL HEATING WITH THE  
APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO FORM. THE BOUNDARY  
SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF SBN BY MID AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, FWA SHOULD  
BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS AT THAT TIME. WENT WITH A 16Z  
TO 22Z A TEMPO THUNDER GROUP. OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT  
THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...COBB/SKIPPER  
SHORT TERM...COBB  
LONG TERM...COBB  
AVIATION...SKIPPER  
 
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