773
FXUS63 KIWX 021833
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
233 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
- MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AS LOW AS 30% TO 40% OVER THE WEEKEND
MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. IN
TOTAL, 0.50" TO 1" OF RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, WHICH WILL NOT BE
ENOUGH TO OFFSET ONGOING DROUGHT.
- NOTICEABLY COOLER BY MIDWEEK WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE LEVELS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 30S POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW FOR WARM AND
DRY WEATHER TO LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DIURNAL HEATING TODAY
HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CUMULUS TO DEVELOP
PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THIS
EVENING; CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ALLOW FOR INCREASED RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
HIGHS IN THE 80S EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND, WINDS WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY BREEZY AS A DEEPENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 20
TO 25 MPH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WOULDN'T BE
SURPRISED IF A FEW LOCATIONS REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK ON SUNDAY
DUE TO THE INCREASE IN WAA.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AS
A RESULT, ONGOING DROUGHT PERSISTS OR WORSENS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE NEW US DROUGHT MONITOR WAS RELEASED THIS MORNING (OCTOBER
2ND) AND SHOWS EXPANSION OF EXTREME DROUGHT (D3) ACROSS NORTHWEST
OHIO AND INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA ALONG THE US 24 CORRIDOR. THIS IS
THE FIRST TIME ANY PART OF ALLEN COUNTY, IN HAS EXPERIENCED EXTREME
DROUGHT SINCE AUGUST 2012. PARTS OF NOBLE, DEKALB, AND STEUBEN
COUNTIES SAW SOME IMPROVEMENT THIS WEEK DUE TO HIGHLY LOCALIZED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" IN SOME LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, DROUGHT
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE DROUGHT OVER THE WEEKEND.
ONE ADDITIONAL CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS IS ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
SUNNY SKIES AND PERSISTENT WARMTH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP BETWEEN 25 TO 40 PERCENT FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. SHOULD ANY GRASS OR BRUSH FIRES DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
ON SUNDAY WHEN WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 20 TO 25 MPH, THEY MAY
SPREAD EASILY DUE TO ABUNDANT DRY CONDITIONS. AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING!
RAIN CHANCES FINALLY MAKE A RETURN TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF
AN INCOMING COLD FRONT, MOISTURE FROM THE GULF/ATLANTIC WILL MOVE
INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE GFS AND ECMWF STILL HAVE SOME
DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND MAY
STALL OUT IN OUR NORTHWEST OR JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA LATE MONDAY.
AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH OUT THE DAY. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS
GULF/ATLANTIC MOISTURE COULD GET, SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY ALONG US 24 OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S COMBINED WITH UP TO 500J/KG SBCAPE, I CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE AND HOW SLOW THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5" TO 1" TOTAL WILL
BE POSSIBLE. HIGHEST AMOUNTS FAVOR THE US 24 CORRIDOR.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MIDWEEK, BRINGING IN MUCH
COOLER AIR FROM CENTRAL CANADA DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR 40
DEGREES. PATCHY FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN LOW-
LYING AND RURAL AREAS THAT DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM EDT THU OCT 2 2025
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WITH VFR CONDITIONS, LIGHT
WINDS AND ONLY SOME PASSING CIRRUS AT TIMES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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