440  
FXUS63 KIWX 141845  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
245 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- ISOLATED SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY  
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN.  
 
- COOL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF WARMING TREND.  
 
- THERE IS A 60-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 242 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
INCREASING CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY FOR NORTHWEST  
INDIANA, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND WEAK COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.  
A 60-KNOT 500MB JET TRACKING THROUGH MICHIGAN PROVIDING FAVORABLE  
UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT  
LEAST DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A  
STOUT DRY LAYER BELOW 8K FT THAT DOES MOISTEN DOWN TO ABOUT 4K FT BY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SUGGESTS VIRGA CAN TRANSITION TO A FEW LIGHT  
RAIN SHOWERS AROUND DAYBREAK. NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE SHOWERS. THE  
SHOWER CHANCE WILL BE CONFINED PRIMARILY TO MICHIANA, IN BEST  
PROXIMITY TO SATURDAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL JET.  
 
NOTABLY COOLER BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S  
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BRIEF WARM UP TO END THE WEEK  
THANKS TO A PROGRESSIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN. COULD SEE LOWS IN THE 30S  
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL MICHIGAN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING  
 
BENEFICIAL RAIN (AND THUNDERSTORMS) LOOK PROMISING SATURDAY AS A  
DEEP LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE SPREADS AN EXPANSIVE COLD FRONT  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS. ONE POSSIBLE FAILURE POINT IN  
THESE PATTERNS IS ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI  
VALLEY SATURDAY COULD ROB POLEWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO OUR AREA.  
OTHERWISE, ADDITIONAL CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MAY  
PROVIDE CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES INTO SUNDAY. SHARPLY COOLER BEHIND  
THIS FRONT WITH HIGHS HARDLY REACHING 60 SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1134 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
WEAK NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF  
PERIOD AS A DEEP LOW CONTINUES WELL EAST OF THE AREA ALONG THE  
EAST COAST. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT AT THIS  
TIME, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THE FOG WILL BE OPERATIONALLY  
SIGNIFICANT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IN...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...BROWN  
AVIATION...SKIPPER  
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