750
FXUS63 KIWX 271803
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
203 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS SOMEWHAT LESS
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED.
- A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
RAINFALL WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO POSSIBLY 50 MPH IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
- TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S.
- ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, THE BULK OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
APPEARS TO BE DRY.
- FROST LIKELY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
A LARGE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS WESTERN INDIANA AND EVENTUALLY POINTS TO
THE EAST WITH ALL AREAS SEEING A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF RAINFALL.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS AREA, AS A ORGANIZED,
ELEVATED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES FROM CENTRAL IL INTO
CENTRAL IN. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION, HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS COURTESY OF AN INCREASING
RISE/FALL PRESSURE COUPLET FROM A DEVELOPING WAKE LOW. SOME
STRONGER GUSTS HAVE BEEN NOTED ALREADY IN EASTERN IA AND WESTERN
IL. A WIND ADVISORY WAS RECENTLY ISSUED TO HANDLE THIS CONCERN
THROUGH 00Z TUE, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN EASTWARD (MAYBE
SOUTHWARD) EXPANSION WITH TIME. THE COUPLET SEEMS TO MOVE EAST
AND THEN TRANSITION NE, HENCE THE AREA OF THE HEADLINES FOR NOW.
CONFIDENCE IN A THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ON THE LOW
TO MEDIUM SIDE AS CAMS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEAL WITH THE IMPACTS
OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND SUBSIDENCE WITH THE WAKE LOW.
NOT READY TO DISMISS THE THREAT GIVEN THE WIND FIELDS AND
OVERALL DYNAMICS IN PLACE. THE ENHANCED AND MODERATE RISK AREAS
REMAIN WELL TO OUR SW WHERE THE GREATEST CONCERNS EXIST. A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR CONVECTIVELY RELATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
MAYBE A TORNADO OR 2 MAY EXIST IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP UPSTREAM
AND MOVE IN. AS A RESULT, LIMITED CHANGES TO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER
UPDATES. SOME HYDRO CONCERNS MAY EXIST INTO TONIGHT IF
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DOES MOVE IN, BUT PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO LIMIT IMPACTS.
ONCE WE GET PAST TONIGHT, WE TREND COOLER AND FOR THE MOST PART
DRIER AS MORE OF A NW FLOW ALOFT SETS UP WITH A WEAK SYSTEM
MAYBE BRINGING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT.
CONCERNS DO STILL EXIST FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES LATER THIS
WEEK, BUT EXTENDED PERIOD LEFT UNTOUCHED FOR NOW WITH FOCUS ON
NEAR TERM THREATS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026
A FIRST LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES SBN AROUND 18Z AND BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VIS AND AT LEAST MVFR, BUT MAYBE EVEN IFR
CIGS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A WAKE LOW FORMS AND CAUSES SOME 30
TO 40 KT GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS LINE OF STORMS
REACHES FWA AROUND 20 AND OR 21Z WITH SIMILAR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. THE
SEVERITY OF THESE STORMS MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH A WIND THREAT
AT SBN, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD HAVE SEVERE WINDS BY THE TIME IT
REACHES FWA. MODELS APPEAR TO BE DOWNGRADING ANY CHANCE FOR A
POTENTIALLY STRONGER AREA OF STORMS FOR THIS EVENING, BUT WE ARE
STILL WATCHING THE TIME FRAME BETWEEN 00Z AND 6Z FOR THAT. EITHER
WAY, DO EXPECT STORMS TO BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 6Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND 6Z AND THEN MORE WESTERLY
TUESDAY MORNING. GIVEN MIXING, SYNOPTIC GUSTS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
GUSTS APPEAR TO REACH 25 TO 30 KTS TODAY AND MORE LIKE 20 TO 25 KTS
ON TUESDAY. ALSO HAVE SOME LLWS FOR FWA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ005>008-012-014-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...NONE.
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ078>081-177-
277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...CR
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