051
FXUS63 KIWX 270710
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
310 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY. A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS LIKELY TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 2 TO 8 PM EDT.
- DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS OVER 75 MPH.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MUCH LOWER.
- DRY AND SEASONABLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- HIGH SWIM RISK TUESDAY FOR SOUTHEAST LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
OUR AREA HAS BEEN UPGRADED INTO AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY LATER TODAY.
TODAY'S SEVERE WEATHER SETUP IS BECOMING MORE CLEAR AND CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING AS MODEL GUIDANCE (ESPECIALLY RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR)
POINTS TOWARDS A STRONG MCS PUSHING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS OVER THE PAST 6-12 HOURS SHOW
THAT CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN MINNESOTA AND
WISCONSIN, WHICH MEANS TIMING HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS THE THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN, AS THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD INTENSITY AS IT PROPAGATES SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INTO MICHIGAN AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF STORMS BUT THE BEST TIMING APPEARS TO BE BETWEEN 2
EDT TO 8 PM EDT TODAY. WITH A LACK OF STORMS IN THE AREA THIS
MORNING, THIS ALLOWS THE AIRMASS OVERHEAD AMPLE TIME TO HEAT UP
AND DESTABILIZE BEFORE STORMS COME THROUGH AROUND PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 90S TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 70S, WHICH SHOULD FUEL SBCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2500-4000
J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40
KTS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK FAVORABLE AROUND 7-8 C/KM.
THESE ARE FAVORABLE PARAMETERS THAT WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS OF 60-70 MPH. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
GUSTS OVER 75 MPH AS CIG 1 HATCHING HAS BEEN ADDED FOR OUR
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY SPC IN THE NEW DAY 1 OUTLOOK. AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
O-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 150-250 M2/S2.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 8 PM ALONG A DIFFUSE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT TRACKS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, POTENTIALLY
CLIPPING NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. HAVE MAINTAINED NBM
POPS FROM 8 PM EDT TONIGHT TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY GIVEN CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MUCH LOWER WITH THESE
STORMS GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A STRONGER MCS EARLIER IN THE DAY AS
MENTIONED ABOVE.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER THIS EVENING, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE OVER AND WE WILL HAVE SEVERAL DRY DAYS AHEAD. A COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERAL DAYS
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. IT WILL BE DRY AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH INTERMITTENT
LOW CHANCES (20-30%) FOR RAIN/STORM RETURNING BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY,
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR SOUTHEAST
LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY. WAVES OF 3 TO 5 FEET TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WITH DIRECT ONSHORE FLOW, STRONG STRUCTURAL, RIP, AND LONGSHORE
CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED. STRUCTURAL CURRENTS WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF PIERS. STAY OUT OF THE WATER AND STAY OFF OF
THE PIERS! BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR LA PORTE
COUNTY, IN AND BERRIEN COUNTY, MI FROM EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS ACTIVITY UPSTREAM REMAINS SLOW TO GET GOING OVERNIGHT. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH AND MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED PROB30
GROUPS FOR KSBN AND KFWA FOR MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE
TO SCATTERED STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS
STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 KTS. THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS WELL BUT
WILL DEFER THIS TO LATER TAF UPDATES UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL STILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MIZ177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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