349
FXUS63 KIWX 121122
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
622 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND BREEZY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S, THEN FALL INTO THE
LOW 30S LATE TONIGHT.
- BREEZY WITH CHANCES (20-40%) FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. RAIN MAY
MIX WITH SNOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF US 24 AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID 30S.
- WIDESPREAD SYSTEM SNOW IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING, MIXING WITH RAIN AT TIMES (ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US 24) EARLY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY FOR NORTH- NORTHWEST WIND FAVORED SNOWBELTS. IT'S
POSSIBLE THAT LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN BERRIEN AND LA PORTE
COUNTIES SEE GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 620 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, WITH MAINLY BREEZY
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES TO CONTEND WITH
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY AND MILD TODAY WITH OUR CWA SITUATED
BETWEEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND A WEAK TROUGH TO THE
NORTH. ZONAL/WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY, WITH A SHORTWAVE/SURFACE TROUGH PINWHEELING AROUND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HAVE 20-40% CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE TROUGH
PASSAGE, THOUGH THERE IS HIGH VARIABILITY AMONG MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH
REGARDS TO WHETHER OR NOT OUR CWA SEES ANY PRECIPITATION (ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE WAVE). MANY MODELS KEEP THE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH-BARELY SKIRTING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF OUR
MICHIGAN COUNTIES-AND OTHERS BRING THE PRECIP CLOSER TO US 30,
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD BRIEFLY INTO LIMA, OH TUESDAY EVENING. HAVE THE
BEST CHANCES NORTH OF US 6 TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE THE DEEPER
TROUGH AXIS ARRIVES OVERNIGHT. HIGHS TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S, THEN RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S FOR TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
(CUT OFF LOW POSSIBLY AT THIS POINT) DROPS FROM WESTERN UPPER MI
INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THIS FEATURE ARRIVES, THEN WE SEE
30-60 PERCENT CHANCES LATE/TOWARDS WED AM. IT MAY START OUT
INITIALLY AS RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE WAVE-THEN MIX WITH
A BIT OF SNOW TOWARDS WED AM. WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES START OUT IN
THE MID-TO UPPER 30S SOUTH OF US 24 WEDNESDAY, AND THE LOW TO MID
30S NORTH. BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS-WITH THE CLOSED LOW CENTERED
RIGHT OVER LOWER MI/NORTHERN IN/NW OH. BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE
FEATURE IS CENTERED AROUND NW OH INTO LAKE ERIE--LEAVING OUR CWA IN
COLD AIR ADVECTION/N-NW FLOW. SO AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S AND LOW
30S, THEN DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ANY LINGERING RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY. AROUND 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING (SOME POSSIBLY UP TO 3" DEPENDING ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW MOVES AND ALSO HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN/SNOW
TRANSITION OCCURS).
OUTSIDE OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD SYSTEM RAIN/SNOW MIX, LAKE
ENHANCEMENT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD WITH THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. AS THE LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, WE HAVE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
WITH THE WINDS OUT OF THE N-NW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DOWN THE LONG AXIS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -17C--WHICH GIVES US
DELTA T'S OF 18 DEGREES (LAKE MI AROUND 1C); AND 0-1KM DELTA THETA
E'S AROUND -3 TO -6 (DEPENDING ON THE MODEL)...WHICH GIVES US PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. MUCH OF THE LIFT IS WITHIN A SATURATED
DGZ WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND INVERSION HEIGHTS THURSDAY
NIGHT AROUND 7-8KFT. IN OTHER WORDS-IF THE PATTERN OCCURS AS MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE FORECASTS--SOMEONE ALONG LAKE MI IS GOING TO SEE A
PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW. GUIDANCE IS CONFLICTED
AS TO WHETHER OR NOT WINDS WILL BE MORE NORTHERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY---
SO EXACTLY WHERE THE MORE SINGLE DOMINANT BAND EVENTUALLY SETS UP IS
STILL IN QUESTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS WINDS MORE NORTHERLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON--THEN SHIFTING
NORTHWEST AS SUBSIDENCE BUILDS IN TOWARDS WED EVENING (3-4KFT
INVERSION HEIGHTS BY 7 PM THU EVE). IF THIS HOLDS, THE MORE DOMINANT
BAND WILL MOST LIKELY SET UP IN LA PORTE AND SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY
(WITH A DECENT INLAND EXTENT INTO STARKE CO IN). PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN THIS AREA ARE AROUND 75-80 PERCENT,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR GREATER THAN 6" OF SNOW AT AROUND 35-45 PERCENT.
THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING (NOT
INCLUDING THE DAY-QPF DOESN'T GO OUT THAT FAR), HAS ACCUMULATIONS OF
3-6" IN LAPORTE/SOUTHERN BERRIEN (EVEN INTO NORTHERN STARKE, IN),
WITH AMOUNTS AROUND 2-4" POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY AND
AREAS FURTHER INLAND NEAR THE LAKESHORE. IF IT'S A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY BAND ORIENTATION, NORTHERN LA PORTE AND MORE OF
SOUTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL. IT COULD
BE IMPACTFUL TO TRAVEL (ESPECIALLY FOR THE THU AM/THU PM COMMUTES),
WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS POTENTIALLY GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30-35
MPH AT TIMES-LEADING TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS IN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL
BRING US POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. IT WILL BE
COLD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S DROPPING TOWARDS THE TEENS
AND LOW 20S SUN/MON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS. BLUSTERY WINDS AT TIMES COULD LEAD TO WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT/SUN AM AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MON AM.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 AM EST MON JAN 12 2026
PREVAILING VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE
DAY BEFORE EASING BACK AFTER SUNSET.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...NORMAN
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