016
FXUS63 KIWX 171026
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
626 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM IN THE 80S.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL VARY WITH THE NEXT 2 DAYS BEING THE MOST
PLEASANT.
- THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA UNTIL SATURDAY.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HEAT INDICIES POSSIBLY REACHING 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER.
- A BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BEACHES ALONG
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING. WAVES OF 4 TO 6
FEET WILL CREATE DANGEROUS CURRENTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
COLD FRONT WAS READILY APPARENT IN SFC OBS AS WELL AS RADAR,
EXTENDING FROM COLDWATER TO PLYMOUTH. SOMEWHAT OF A DROP IN
DEWPOINTS NOTED WITH EVEN SOME BRIEF GUSTIER WINDS (BENTON
HARBOR GUSTED TO 45 MPH). THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS SE, BUT
EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN AND STALL OUT SOUTH OF US-24 AS UPPER FLOW
FLATTENS. THETA-E GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN THIS VICINITY DURING
PEAK HEATING, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW POPUP SHOWERS OR STORMS.
SUSPECT MAIN PATH OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN EVEN FURTHER SOUTH,
BUT FOR NOW WILL LIMIT POPS TO SLGT CHC IN THE FAR SOUTH. LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
DROPPING INTO THE 50S, ESPECIALLY NORTH. REGARDLESS, EVEN A DROP
INTO THE LOW 60S WILL BE A NICE RELIEF, ALBEIT BRIEF. THE NW
FLOW AND ALREADY NOTED SOMEWHAT GUSTIER WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR A HIGH SWIM RISK
THETA-E GRADIENT/BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL EDGE SLOWLY BACK NORTH
SATURDAY WITH 70 DEWPOINTS MAKING A RETURN ALONG WITH SCATTERED TO
POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. POP UP CONVECTION COULD HAPPEN
AT ANY POINT, BUT BEST CHANCES LIKELY TO OCCUR FROM UPSTREAM
CONVECTION OR ITS REMNANTS MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIPPLE DEPICTED IN THE MODELS. SWODY3 HAS
INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 5) FOR LOCATION ALONG AND SOUTH
OF US-30. OF GREATER CONCERN COULD BE THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL LIKELY BE IN PLACE WITH RISK OF ONE OF MORE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS THAT COULD BRING AN INCREASED FLOODING
RISK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE 594
DM UPPER LEVEL HIGH EDGING SLOWLY NORTH AND WEST AND STRENGTHEN
FURTHER. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANY CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAINING
NORTH OF THE AREA AS 700 MB CLIMB ABOVE 10 C, ESPECIALLY CAPPING THE
ENTIRE AREA AND ALLOWING THE REGION TO BAKE AS HIGHS MAKE A RUN BACK
INTO THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. HEAT INDICES WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL LIKELY TOP 100 DEGREES WITH LIMITED OVERNIGHT
RELIEF. IN ADDITION, "CORN SWEAT" WILL BE IN FULL SWING, POTENTIALLY
ADDING TO DEWPOINTS LOCALLY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD AS
MODEL SIGNALS SEEM TO BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT THU JUL 17 2025
A COLD FRONT HAD JUST CLEARED FWA AND WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO. MVFR POST-FRONTAL
CEILINGS WERE WIDESPREAD OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. MVFR CEILINGS
SHOULD BE IN THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON GIVEN A
STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION PER BUFKIT. IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY TO
VFR AT BOTH SITES AS DRIER AIR EVENTUALLY SPREADS ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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