746
FXUS63 KIWX 031049
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
649 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 611 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN MOVE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THIS
EVENING. IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ON THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY. IT WILL BE DRY SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020
A DECAYING MCS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN HAS LEFT THE
AREA UNDER A FAIRLY DENSE CIRRUS CLOUD SHIELD. THESE CLOUDS WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY, AND MAY ALSO
INHIBIT DESTABLIZATION.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE MORNING.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MOSTLY ZONAL, BUT A A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE
WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT AND AID IN KICKING OFF CONVECTION. THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH, WHERE THERE SHOULD BE LESS
INFLUENCE FROM THE HIGH CLOUDS, AND 2000-3000 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, DCAPE AND SHEAR WILL ONLY BE
MARGINAL. THEREFORE, THE BIGGEST SEVERE THREATS WILL BE BRIEF
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE
GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE STRONG STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN AND MOVE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, SO SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH
OF HWY 24.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020
THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY, SO A FEW DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A WEAK NORTHERN
STREAM WAVE SWINGS THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
THE WEEKEND AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARM AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY
FOR A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2020
THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION FROM WI TO
LOWER MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT HAD MOVED SOUTH TO ABOUT WARSAW AND THEN
BECAME STATIONARY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS STARTED TO MOVE BACK NORTH
AND SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP LATER
TODAY. CAMS AND OTHER MODELS REALLY STRUGGLING EVEN JUST
INITIALIZING CONVECTION. EARLIER THIS MORNING, SUBSTANTIAL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 500 J/KG PER SPC MESO
ANALYSIS WAS OVER NORTHERN INDIANA, BUT DIURNAL HEATING WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO FORM. THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF SBN BY MID AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, FWA SHOULD
BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS AT THAT TIME. WENT WITH A 16Z
TO 22Z A TEMPO THUNDER GROUP. OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT
THIS EVENING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...COBB/SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...COBB
LONG TERM...COBB
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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