137
FXUS63 KIWX 171639
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1239 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT
WARMING TREND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF INTERSTATE 69 THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH PARTS OF THE CWA
YESTERDAY, THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS TODAY AND FURTHER EAST
THAN YESTERDAY. THE INCREASED CHANCES OF THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS THANKS TO A NORTHEAST UPPER LEVEL LOW INTRODUCING
SOME LIFT AND INCREASING THE INSTABILITY OVER THE EASTERN PARTS
OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
BY THURSDAY UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A DRY WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PUSHING
INTO THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL HANG
AROUND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BRING ENOUGH LIFT, INSTABILITY AND SOME MOISTURE TO
INCREASE THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AND GENERALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS HOWEVER
WILL BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW SITS
DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA. THE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS BRING BETWEEN
A 50 PERCENT AND 65 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OF A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR GREATER NEAR FORT WAYNE ON SUNDAY.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST, CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN SHORTWAVE RIDGING RETURNS
BRINGING DRIER AND A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2022
QUIET WX WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE CENTER OF A IA-
WI-NRN MI SFC RIDGE GRADUALLY SINKS TOWARD THE AREA, AND ANY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS EAST OF THE TERMINALS
DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR SOME PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG OTHERWISE LATER
TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN
SHORT TERM...ANDERSEN
LONG TERM...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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