770
FXUS63 KIWX 050555
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
155 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND BRIEFLY WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH WESTERLY GUSTS OF 25 TO
35 MPH.
- MAINLY DRY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- COOL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES
THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
A COMPACT/ROBUST SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL SLINGSHOT EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, EVENTUALLY GETTING ABSORBED INTO AN ONTARIO UPPER LOW
LATER FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. ANY WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION SHOULD
MISS NORTH GIVEN THE TRACK, WITH THE MAIN IMPACT LOCALLY BEING A
RAMPING PRE-FRONTAL KINEMATIC FIELD LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A ~40 KT LLJ DURING THIS TIME
WHICH COULD PROMOTE BRIEF GUSTIER WEST WINDS (30-40 MPH) MID MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AS GREATER MIXING COMMENCES. THE LOW LEVEL
WIND FIELD DOES DIMINISH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TRAILING SFC
TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH, THOUGH CAA AND INCREASED MIXING DEPTHS
WILL STILL KEEP THINGS GUSTY. MODELS DO HINT A BRIEF FGEN FLARE
UP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SUB 700 MB AIR IS VERY DRY HOWEVER SUGGESTING VIRGA/SPRINKLES
AT WORST. TIMING OF THE FRONT SHOULD FAVOR HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST OTHERWISE.
UPPER TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH
COOLER WEATHER PERSISTING. SEVERAL SMALL AMPLITUDE IMPULSES WILL
SWING THROUGH IN THIS REGIME WITH NON-ZERO CHANCES FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS, BEST CHANCES (10%) IN LOWER MI THANKS TO
SOME LAKE MI MOISTURE FLUX SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN THE
WEAK NATURE TO THESE WAVES, AND THE OVERALL DEARTH OF MOISTURE, WILL
CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MOST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THEN FOLLOWS IN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
ON A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT FRI SEP 5 2025
A COLD FRONT, EXTENDING FROM SW WISCONSIN TO NW MISSOURI WILL
SWEEP EAST, REACHING KSBN EITHER SIDE OF 14Z AND A FEW HOURS
LATER AT KFWA. AREA OF MID CLOUDS WAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH HAVE SHOWN AN
OVERALL DECREASING TREND. CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR
LIGHT SHOWER AT KSBN LATER TONIGHT, BUT NOT WORTH ADDING AT THIS
POINT GIVEN NO FLIGHT IMPACTS. MORE NOTICEABLE WILL BE
INCREASING WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT
ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 35 TO 30 KTS AT BOTH SITES DURING PEAK
HEATING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR MIZ177-277.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...FISHER
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