306
FXUS63 KIWX 020525
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
125 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING THROUGH MID-
MORNING FRIDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS ON EITHER SIDE OF 1 INCH.
- NOTABLY COOLER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S.
- VERY CRISP TUESDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 30S (70% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2026
WARM, BREEZY, WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
FOLLOWED BY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT SAGS
SOUTHEAST. EXCELLENT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF IS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR, AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OFF A SOUTHEAST US RIDGE FUNNELS
MOISTURE POLEWARD AGAINST A LOW SWIRLING OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVERNIGHT DEPICT AN IMPRESSIVE WARM-CLOUD LAYER
OF 12,000 FT, INDICATIVE OF A MOISTURE-RICH ATMOSPHERE. BOUNDARY-
PARALLEL FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL LIMIT THE FRONT'S FORWARD
SPEED. AS A RESULT, FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE-MORNING FRIDAY ON EITHER SIDE OF 1". SOME HIGH-
RESOLUTION ENSEMBLES HAVE A FEW STRIPES OF 2" TOTALS WHICH IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FROM ANY ISOALTED THUNDERSTORMS THAT BUBBLE UP.
YET OVERALL, WITH 10-DAY OBSERVED RAINFALL OF LESS THAN 0.50", THE
GENERAL FEELING IS THAT THE FORECAST AREA CAN HANDLE THIS RAINFALL.
WE CAN ADDRESS ANY NEAR-TERM FLOOD CONCERNS WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES AS
NEEDED.
CIRCLING BACK TO THUNDER FOR A MOMENT, THE BEST TIME FOR AN ISOALTED
THUNDERSTORM IS FROM ABOUT 4PM TO 10PM EDT WHEN A NARROW RIBBON OF
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED; STILL SHY OF 1,000 J/KG. TONIGHT'S RAIN
LOOKS TO BE PRIMARY RAIN EVENT FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. LOW PRESSURE
THROUGH ONTARIO THREATENS TO BRING SHOWERS SUNDAY TO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MICHIGAN, WHILE A SECOND SYSTEM TAKES A SIMILAR PATH LATE
NEXT WEEK.
SHARPLY COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT RESULTING IN HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND ONLY IN THE 60S WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.
AS MENTIONED HERE THIS MORNING, TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS ABSOLUTELY
CRISP WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. ADVERTISED LOWS COULD BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES
ON THE COLD SIDE OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE (SHY OF THE 25TH PERCENTILE),
BUT WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. FEAR NOT, AS TEMPERATURES APPEAR
POISED TO REBOUND LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING MOVES
EAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 119 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN BAND SLOWLY PROGRESSING
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL. MVFR TO IFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR BOTH TAF
SITES WITH THE BOUNDARY PASSAGE AND VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS. AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BUT LACK OF INSTABILITY
SHOULD MITIGATE DEVELOPMENT. RAPID IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED LATER
THIS MORNING WITH RETURN TO VFR AND CLEARING SKIES BY THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER THE 20Z FRI TO 00Z SAT TIME PERIOD HOWEVER STILL
TRAPPED MOIST LOWER LEVELS COULD SLOW CLEARING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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