698
FXUS63 KIWX 062223
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
623 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FEW LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, OTHERWISE DRY FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- A WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
BELOW NORMAL HIGHS ON TUESDAY.
- WARMER WEATHER RETURNS LATER THIS WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES
RAMPING UP THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
ISOLATED (10-20%) RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS WILL USHER IN EVEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WITH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FALLING INTO THE 20S. IF YOU'VE
STARTED GROWING SENSITIVE PLANTS, YOU MAY WANT TO MAKE SURE
THEY'RE PROTECTED OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, OUR AREA WILL HAVE A
MUCH NEEDED OPPORTUNITY TO DRY OUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN FACT,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST POSSIBLY RECORD LOW PWATS FOR
TOMORROW MORNING OF LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES (ACCORDING TO THE
WILMINGTON OH UPPER AIR SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY).
AFTER HIGHS MAX OUT IN THE 40S TOMORROW, WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVERSPREADS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING UP INTO THE
LOW 70S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE,
INCLUDING AI MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF THE EXISTENCE OF A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
SOMETIME FRIDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER.
WHILE PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE EXTRAVAGANT WITH
GENERALLY 1/4 INCH OR LESS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE DOES GIVE A ~20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 1 INCH OF IN SW
MICHIGAN AND NW INDIANA, TAPERING OFF TO ABOUT A 10% CHANCE NEAR
FORT WAYNE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY MILD THROUGH SATURDAY
THANKS TO THE PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER, BEFORE WARMING BACK UP TO
NEAR 80S DEGREES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS WILL BE ON A DOWNTREND THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND VEERING OF THE WINDS TO NORTHERLY.
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH CIGS AS STILL MOIST SURFACE
LEVELS AND LAKE MOISTURE PLUMING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
MVFR CLOUDS AROUND 3000 FT OVERNIGHT BUT WITH THE INCOMING DRIER
AIRMASS COULD ERODE THAT SURFACE MOISTURE KEEPING CIGS A BIT
HIGHER. DID AT THIS TIME KEEP THE MVFR CIGS IN THE TAF.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...NORMAN
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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