019
FXUS63 KIWX 062255
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
655 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD AND DRY TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH VARIABLE
CLOUD COVER AND LOWS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE
IS A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MICHIGAN COUNTIES, WHERE
AREAS OF FROST COULD HARM SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION. PATCHY
FROST IS POSSIBLE FOR IN/OH COUNTIES, MAINLY NORTH OF US 6.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, MAINLY IN MICHIGAN AND FOR AREAS SOUTH OF US 30.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-UPPER 50S, LOW 60S. LOWS IN THE 40S.
- BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, THEN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS SOUTH OF US 30 ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
SATURDAY, AND IN THE 60S FRIDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 404 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED OR CLEARING ALL TOGETHER. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE WEST AT 5 MPH OR LESS, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S (COLDEST IN MICHIGAN COUNTIES INLAND FROM LAKE MI).
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THE MICHIGAN COUNTIES TONIGHT, WITH
AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING-
INLAND FROM LAKE MI. FROST COULD HARM SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION.
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.
PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN IN/OH, MAINLY NORTH OF US 6 AND WEST OF
US 31--BUT TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT 37 OR ABOVE GIVEN CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED TO LINGER LONGER (ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTH OF US 24).
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES (20-40 PERCENT) INTRODUCED FOR LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND THU NIGHT-ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF US 30 AND
FURTHER NORTH IN MICHIGAN COUNTIES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STEMMING
FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL CROSS THROUGH DURING THIS
PERIOD. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BRING INSTABILITY TO THE AREA,
WITH WAA AT THE SURFACE CREATING SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS
COULD FORCE SHOWERS ALONG OUR SOUTHERN CWA BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON--
WHERE MODELS SUGGESTING A STATIONARY FRONT-LIKE FEATURE SETTING UP
AND PRODUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
WITH THE TROUGH IS POSSIBLE IN THE MICHIGAN COUNTIES AS WELL.
OVERALL FOR BOTH AREAS, HAVE CAPPED MOST POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT (UP
TO 40 PERCENT LATE THU EVENING) AS MODELS ARE GREATLY CONFLICTED AS
TO THE EXTENT AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION--MOISTURE IS
FAIRLY LIMITED-ESPECIALLY INITIALLY. THE HRRR TAKES THE BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR CWA--WHICH WOULD DROP OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ALL TOGETHER--WHEREAS THE RAP AND THE NAM HAVE A MORE ROBUST FEATURE
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF US 30 (MAINLY IN). OTHERWISE, HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
BE IN THE 50S AND PERHAPS LOW 60S (WARMEST SOUTH OF US 30). LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 40S.
AFTER A LULL IN PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, A
SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS FROM SOUTHERN IL EASTWARD INTO OHIO. INITIAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
WARM FRONT, THEN WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
LOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE CHANCES AROUND 40-
70 PERCENT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG/SOUTH OF US 24 FRI EVENING.
THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS (NON-SEVERE) SOUTH OF US 30
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY WE'LL SEE A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW TO MID 70S, WARMEST SOUTH. THE LOW OVER HUDSON BAY SINKS
SOUTHWARD INTO JAMES BAY-SO WE'LL SEE SEVERAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WITH EACH PASSING TROUGH/SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THROUGH THE FLOW. THERE
ARE LOW CHANCES (20-30 PERCENT) FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY (40-70 PERCENT) AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
SWINGS THROUGH. HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 60S.
MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S. ANOTHER WAVE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN (30-60
PERCENT) BY TUE AFTERNOON INTO WED. ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUE
AFTERNOON-EVENING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 653 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A MIX OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST WITH CLOUD BASES AT 7000 FT OR HIGHER. WINDS OUT OF
THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY RELAX, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER
03Z TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON;
THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z BUT HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION
OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
LOCATIONS. WEST WINDS WILL PICK UP IN ACCORDANCE WITH DAYTIME
HEATING BECOMING SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS BETWEEN 15-16Z
THURSDAY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MIZ078>081-
177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCD
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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