061
FXUS63 KIWX 011040
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
640 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN/STORMS PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO HEAVY RAIN IS ONGOING AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. RISES ON AREA RIVERS INTO AT
LEAST MINOR FLOOD STAGE ARE LIKELY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE MAIN
THREATS.
- MILD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. COOLER IN THE 40S FOR EASTER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES TO START APRIL AND A SOGGY DAY IS AHEAD AS
RAIN AND STORMS CONTINUE. AS OF 06Z THIS MORNING, THE COLD FRONT
THAT BROUGHT US SEVERE WEATHER YESTERDAY EVENING HAS SLOWED IT'S
FORWARD PROGRESSION. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM DETROIT
TO FORT WAYNE TO LAFAYETTE. HIGHS FOR THE DAY HAVE ALREADY BEEN
REACHED. WITH CYCLONIC, NORTHWEST FLOW AND CAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE QUICKLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S. ON RADAR, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL
ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD. A SERIES OF 500 MB SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA WILL
REINVIGORATE CONVECTION BETWEEN 09- 18Z. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OUT OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THAT COLD FRONT AS IT SLOWLY SINKS
SOUTHEAST. MUCH OF OUR AREA STILL REMAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR FLOODING OVERNIGHT INTO LATER THIS MORNING.
EXPECT TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REPEATEDLY CAUSE HEAVY
RAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. 1-3" OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE
PAST 12 HOURS AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. FLOODING IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON GIVEN A VERY SATURATED
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE (LOW AND MID LEVEL RH >90%) AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1-1.5" OVER THE AREA. IN ADDITION, VERY STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS STILL ONGOING AT 850MB AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL WANE AS THE MORNING ENSUES. PONDING ON AREA
ROADWAYS AND RISES ON AREA RIVERS INTO AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
GRADUALLY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z.
AFTER THE BUSIEST MARCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAT OUR OFFICE HAS EVER
HAD (A RECORD 18 TORNADO WARNINGS AND A RECORD 57 SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS WERE ISSUED!), WE HAVE A QUICK LULL IN SEVERE
CHANCES BEFORE BECOMING ACTIVE ONCE AGAIN BY THURSDAY. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ALMOST OUR ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LIFT UP INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY ON
WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING; SOME
HAVE RAIN OTHERS KEEP US COMPLETELY DRY IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. WITH OUR AREA ONCE AGAIN FIRMLY IN THE WARM SECTOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EVEN IF WE DO GET RAIN THURSDAY MORNING, WE
SHOULD HAVE SEVERAL HOURS FOR AIRMASS RECOVERY TO OCCUR. THERE COULD
BE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR CLOUD DEBRIS FROM MORNING
CONVECTION (IF IT OCCURS) BUT MILD AIR RETURNS AS TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY MODERATE BACK INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL
WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT QUICKLY INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. THE SYSTEM'S ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT (BEST GUESS IS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z FRIDAY) BRINGING
CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ON THURSDAY EVENING, THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK WILL BE OVER OUR AREA. THIS ALSO
COINCIDES WITH AN NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AT 500 MB AND A 45-55KT
LOW LEVEL JET AT 850MB. THESE FEATURES WILL AID IN SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.
WHILE WE MAY START WITH A FEW DISCRETE STORMS INITIALLY, AS
MORE STORMS POP UP INTO THURSDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, I'D EXPECT A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LINEAR SETUP WITH
BOWING SEGMENTS/CLUSTERS. A MORE ORGANIZED QLCS IS ALSO
POSSIBLE. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS
THE MAIN THREATS. LOW LEVEL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EVIDENT IN
FORECAST HODOGRAPHS, WHICH DEPICT 0-1 KM SRH VALUES OF 200-300
M2/S2 ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT. UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS SETUP ARE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AND POTENTIALLY POOR LAPSE RATES; THIS COULD BE A
HIGH SHEAR, LOW CAPE SETUP AS MOST HI-RES AND MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ONLY HAVE ABOUT 500 J/KG OF SBCAPE THURSDAY EVENING. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF ABOUT 7 C/KM THURSDAY EVENING ALSO QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH A LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. AS FOR THE
TORNADO THREAT, SPC HAS OUR ENTIRE AREA UNDER A 5% TORNADO RISK
WITH CIG1 HATCHING. WHILE THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT IS RATHER
LOW, IT IT NOT ZERO AND IF A TORNADO WERE TO DEVELOP, IT COULD
BE STRONG (UP TO EF2 INTENSITY). EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS/SPIN UPS
WITHIN ANY BOWING SEGMENT/QLCS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE LATE WEEK INTO EASTER
WEEKEND. UNFORTUNATELY, WE JUST CAN'T SEEM TO GET A BREAK LONGER
THAN 48 HOURS FROM RAIN/STORMS. ON SATURDAY, ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LIFTS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND IT'S ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. MILD TEMPERATURES PERSIST WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EASTER IS LOOKING MUCH COOLER FOLLOWING THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. WE MAYBE DRY OUT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (NOT FULLY PUTTING ALL MY EGGS IN ONE BASKET
FOR THIS JUST YET) AS HIGH PRESSURE COULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS CURRENTLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING AND WILL MAINLY IMPACT KFWA THROUGH 16Z. MUCAPE
VALUES AND UPSTREAM LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY
FROM EARLIER SO WILL HOLD WITH JUST A PROB30 TS MENTION.
OTHERWISE IFR TO LOW-END MVFR WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY AT BOTH TERMINALS GIVEN COOL/MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW.
WARM FRONT RETURNS NORTH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...AGD
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