214
FXUS63 KIWX 210439
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1139 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES (60-80%) MAINLY SOUTH OF US-24.
- MILD AND PLEASANT WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BY
MIDWEEK WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVING BY THANKSGIVING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS WE ARE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN BROAD RIDGING OVER THE GULF AND SHALLOW
TROUGHING MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA. THE MORNING HOURS HAVE BEEN
PLAGUED BY FOG/DRIZZLE AND OVERALL GLOOMY WEATHER. WINDS SHOULD
EVENTUALLY MIX THE LOWEST OF LAYERS OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS, BUT 12Z HREF SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A MOIST INVERSION
LAYER WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THAT AND WEAK
LOW- LEVEL ACCENT, WILL KEEP FOG/DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST WITH
THE EXPECTATION THAT VISIBILITIES MAY BE MORE IMPACTED TOMORROW
MORNING THAN THEY WERE TODAY.
TOMORROW, FORCING FROM THE RIGHT FRONT ENTRANCE OF A DEPARTING JET,
COUPLED WITH ISENTROPIC ACCENT AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME
COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH, WILL LEAD TO STRATIFORM RAIN WITH THE
POP GRADIENT GOING FROM NORTH (10-20% S MICHIGAN) TO SOUTH
(60-80%). GENERALLY ONLY 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES IS EXPECTED. GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MILD TEMPS.
FOCUS SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK WHERE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO SET
UP ACROSS THE REGION. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE
FROM A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
MEETING UP WITH THE POLAR JET OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RAIN WILL BE
THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY'S RAIN. THE
MAIN AREA OF COLD AREA WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL WEDNESDAY, WHICH
WILL USHER IN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THANKSGIVING AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. WHILE NOTHING MAJOR LOOKS TO BE ON THE HORIZON, AS
ALWAYS, BE SURE TO CHECK THE FORECAST NEXT WEEK IF YOU HAVE
THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PLANS AS THE ACTIVE PATTERN AND COLD AIR WILL
SUPPORT SNOW CHANCES DURING THE PEAK TRAVEL PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EST THU NOV 20 2025
WEAK WARM ADVECTION OVER TRAPPED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AND SOME DRIZZLE IN PLAY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME GRADUAL
IMPROVENT LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS SLIGHTLY BETTER
MIXING DEVELOPS ALONG AND BEHIND AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. WITH
THAT WILL COME INCREASING CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN,
MAINLY AT KFWA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NORMAN
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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