274
FXUS63 KIWX 312333
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
733 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS 75-80 THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- TRENDING WARMER AND MORE HUMID THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S.
- PERIODIC CHANCES (30-50%) FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
STABLE AND DRY LOW LEVELS ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ALLOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY AND RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH NOTHING MORE THAN AN
INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. RIDGING THROUGH THE COLUMN THEN
SETTLES IN BEHIND FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND WARMING TEMPS (HIGH LOW-MID 80S BY THURSDAY).
A TRANSITION TO FLATTER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS SEVERAL SUBTLE CONVECTIVELY AUGMENTED
IMPULSES TRACK EAST ALONG A DEVELOPING FRONTAL ZONE. A WARMER, MORE
MOIST, AIR MASS WILL ALSO ADVECT IN DURING THIS TIME SUPPORTING
THESE PERIODIC 30-50% POPS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND
A VORT MAX COMES IN FROM THE WEST AS A TROUGH IN THE WEST PUSHES IT
TOWARDS THE AREA AND THE STALLED UPPER LOW IN THE EASTERN CONUS
SENDS A SPOKE OF VORTICITY THAT INTERACTS WITH IT. THIS SENDS A
THETA-E PLUME OF MOISTURE TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS EVENING THE RADAR IS PICKING UP SCATTERED, WHAT APPEAR TO BE
SHOWERS, THE RAP POINT SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO INDICATE THAT THERE'S
PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 700 MB. THIS COULD ALLOW VIRGA AND SPOTTY
SPRINKLES, BUT THIS IS NOT HAZARDOUS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
GIVEN THE TRANSITION FROM SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO INCOMING THETA-E
PLUME, THIS WOULD INDICATE A CHANCE TO SEE INCREASED GUSTY WINDS
MOST LIKELY DURING THE LAST 3 TO 5 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THAT THOUGH SO WILL ALLOW THE NEXT ISSUANCE TO
ADD IT IN.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ROLLER
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