620
FXUS63 KIWX 260655
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
255 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
60 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
- RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR ADDED CLOUD COVER ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT A SLOW BUT
STEADY CLEARING TREND FROM NE TO SW THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGHS NEAR 60F DESPITE A COOL
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY GIVEN A STRONG RIDGE LOCKED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F WITH LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. THE GROWING SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED SO NO
FROST MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD.
A COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION IS STILL EXPECTED FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK AS THREE DISTINCT UPPER LOWS
EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES TO BE A DRY OUTLIER IN SUGGESTING
THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD WILL PIVOT AROUND OUR CWA. ECMWF,
CANADIAN, AND NUMEROUS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS PAINT A MUCH DIFFERENT
PICTURE THOUGH WITH DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTING OVER AT LEAST OUR SE
HALF RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WED MORNING
THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN SUCH A
COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN. DELAYED THE START TIME OF PRECIP A
BIT AS TUE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BUT OTHERWISE DID NOT
DEVIATE FAR FROM NBM INITIALIZATION. THIS DOES LEAD TO VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR HALLOWEEN BUT TEMPS DO APPEAR TO
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE (PARTICULARLY HIGHS) REGARDLESS OF PRECIP
CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE DOWNSTREAM PORTION
OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO
LOSE ITS INTEGRITY AS IT DROPS SOUTH THIS MORNING. DRIER MID
LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM MICHIGAN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE DAYTIME
HOURS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
SUPPORT A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH FEATURE ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN INDIANA WILL BE A STRONGER
LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT TODAY. MIXING UP 4-5K FEET SHOULD
SUPPORT EASTERLY AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY. LOSS OF BETTER
MIXING THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND SPEED DIMINISHMENT,
BUT EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT GIVEN STRENGTH OF GRADIENT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI
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