848
FXUS63 KIWX 151031
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
531 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT SNOW TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. AREAS WEST OF US 31 WILL SEE THE GREATEST
TOTALS. TRAVEL IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREAS WILL BE
TREACHEROUS, ESPECIALLY BENEATH THE MORE DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT
BAND.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING AROUND 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL. NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN, TOTALS WILL BE CLOSER TO 2-3 INCHES.
- THERE AREA ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS IN
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 444 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING IS ON THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND THAT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS DOWN THE LONG AXIS OF LAKE MI INTO SOUTHERN
BERRIEN COUNTY, MI INTO ST. JOSEPH, MARSHALL, AND FULTON
COUNTIES IN IN. IT'S BEEN DROPPING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH TIME, AND
IS JUST CREEPING INTO NORTHEASTERN LAPORTE/STARK COUNTIES.
VISIBILITY BENEATH THE BAND IS DROPPING CLOSE TO ZERO
(K65/PLYMOUTH, IN REPORTING 1/4SM AS OF RIGHT NOW AND WAS 1/4SM
AT KSBN WHEN IT MOVED THROUGH ST. JOSEPH, IN). OPTED TO CANCEL
THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR NORTHERN BERRIEN
AND CASS COUNTIES IN MI, AND ELKHART/KOSCIUSKO COUNTIES IN IN
AS THE BAND HAS DRIFTED LARGELY OUT OF THEIR AREA.
MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT REGARDING HOW FAR WEST THE BAND MOVES
WITH THE HRRR/RAP SUGGESTING IT REACHES LAPORTE/STARKE AND
PULASKI COUNTIES AS WE INCH TOWARDS 12Z. OTHER GUIDANCE KEEPS IT
SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST WITH LESS SOUTHWARD EXTENT. BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS OF THE WIND ALONG THE
MICHIGAN/LAPORTE/PORTER COUNTY SHORELINES SUGGESTING A
DEVELOPING CONVERGENT AXIS (WITH CONTINUED LAKE SUPERIOR
CONNECTION), INVERSION HEIGHTS LINGERING AROUND 6-7KFT, AND
SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ WITH THE FOCUSED LIFT...I'M INCLINED
TO GO WITH THE HRRR/RAP-LIKE POPS/QPF. GRADUALLY INVERSION
HEIGHTS DROP TO AROUND 3-4KFT WITH INCOMING RIDGE (AROUND 18Z)
AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO DWINDLE...SO AFTER THIS MORNING EXPECT
THE INTENSITY OF THE BAND TO TAPER OFF BEFORE IT DRIFTS BACK
EAST AND DISSIPATES. BECAUSE OF THESE FACTORS AND THE PRESENT
RATES OF THE BAND PROBABLY AROUND AT LEAST 2"/HR...WENT ON THE
HIGH SIDE OF QPF (KEPT 20:1 RATIOS). THIS BRINGS TOTALS FROM NOW
UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON OF GREATER THAN 8" WITH STRIPES OF UP TO
POSSIBLY 12" FOR LAPORTE/STARKE IN DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE
BAND LINGERS IN ONE SPOT. ON RADAR, WE CAN SEE CONVECTIVE LOOPS
DEVELOPING WITHIN THE BAND...SO SUSPECT THESE TOTALS ARE
REASONABLE. PULASKI IS PROBABLY GOING TO STAY WITHIN ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS THE INLAND EXTENSION BECOMES LIMITED AFTER 12Z WITH
THE INCOMING RIDGE/DRY AIR (MAINLY 4-6" FURTHER NORTH).
DEPENDING ON HOW LONG THE BAND LINGERS FURTHER EAST IN ITS
CURRENT POSITION EARLY THIS MORNING...MARSHALL/WESTERN ST.
JOSEPH/BERRIEN COULD SEE AT LEAST 6 INCHES MORE (GREATER RISK OF
HIGHER TOTALS CLOSER TO THE LAKE).
IN FULTON, IN AS OF THIS WRITING (ROCHESTER) THE OBSERVATIONS
ARE LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITY OF 2SM, SUGGESTING LESS INTENSITY
WITH SOUTH/EASTWARD EXTENT AS EXPECTED. LINGERING BAND COULD
PRODUCE ANOTHER 2-4" BEFORE TAPERING OFF. IF IT STAYS LONGER
THAN PLANNED, WE COULD GET CLOSER TO 4 TO 5 INCHES IN PARTS OF
THE COUNTY. MAINTAINED THE ADVISORY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, THE BAND
WILL HEAD BACK EAST AS IT DIMINISHES - ADDING ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS TO BERRIEN/ST. JOSEPH - BUT THE INTENSITY WILL BE
MUCH LOWER. WITH THE WINDS THIS MORNING, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE TEENS TO 20S AND WILL FEEL MORE LIKE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE /
BELOW ZERO. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 20S WILL FEEL LIKE THE
TEENS.
A PARADE OF SYSTEMS AND LAKE EFFECT STILL EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK, WITH PROBABLY AROUND 1-3" (HIGHEST NEAR LAKE MI)
EXPECTED FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT WILL BE MUCH COLDER-
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S
SAT/SUN, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. WIND CHILLS IN THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO, WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING TO
AROUND 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
MCD
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU JAN 15 2026
DOMINANT LAKE EFFECT BAND WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT
THREE HOURS WITH A BRIEF RETURN TO 1/4SM HEAVY SNOW AT KSBN. THE
BAND IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WEST OF THE AIRPORT BY 09Z WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. AROUND MIDDAY, WINDS WILL BACK AGAIN
AND THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF LIGHT SNOW/MVFR CONDITIONS
BUT THE BAND WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER BY THEN AND
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS IS LOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND AT LEAST MVFR
CEILINGS. FOR KFWA, EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR THIS PERIOD BUT SOME
BRIEF HIGH-END MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
SWING THROUGH THE AREA. ANY SNOW FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT
ARRIVE AT KFWA UNTIL JUST AFTER THIS FORECAST WINDOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST /NOON CST/ THIS AFTERNOON
FOR INZ012-014-103-104-203-204.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
INZ013-015.
OH...NONE.
MI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...AGD
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