877
FXUS63 KIWX 280800
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
400 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LINGERING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST
OUT OF NORTHWEST OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING.
- COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 50 TO NEAR 60
DEGREES.
- FROST LIKELY AT TIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
- LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL
FLOODING FROM THIS RAIN NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF THAT WAS SUPPORTING ACTIVE WEATHER NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER WAS GENERATING SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAD BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS
MORNING. AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING, THE ACTIVITY HAD MOVED EAST
OUT OF NORTHWEST OHIO. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.
ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OR LESS.
THE GFS MODEL APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED MASS FIELDS WELL AND ALSO
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE TIMING AND THE HANDLING OF LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELDS. SEASONALLY CHILLY AIR WILL BE OVER THE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS COLD PERIOD INCLUDES FOUR NIGHTS
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE LOWS WILL FALL
INTO THE 30S. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BRING WIDESPREAD
FROST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE NEXT WEEK. THE GFS FAVORS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEMS MOVING SOUTHEAST IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AT TIME ARE AHEAD NEXT WEEK.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE
FLOODING. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND
70 DEGREES BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WE'RE STARTING OUT THIS PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE CHICAGO AREA. THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, BUT THOSE CHANCES LOOK BETTER
FARTHER NORTH UP TOWARD GRAND RAPIDS, SO WE KEPT SBN AND FWA DRY
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS
EXTENSIVE MVFR STRATUS THAT EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS MOST OF
IOWA. WHERE UNCERTAINTY COMES IN IS WITH HOW QUICKLY DOES MVFR
STRATUS FILL BACK IN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT (AND ITS POST
FRONTAL STRATUS) AS THE ATMOSPHERE RECOVERS FROM THE STORMS THAT
PAST THROUGH EARLIER IN THE EVENING. WE DID GIVE A LITTLE VFR
BREAK BEFORE BRINGING MVFR CIGS BACK IN AHEAD OF THE FROPA.
BASED ON RAP SOUNDINGS, THIS STRATUS IS GOING TO BE PRETTY
HESITANT TO LEAVE, WITH IT STAYING IN AT SBN UNTIL AROUND 21Z
AND LIKELY NOT CLEARING OUT UNTIL MORE LIKE 00Z OUT AT FWA. AT
THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, A SHIELD OF RAIN WILL BE RAPIDLY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST, BUT THAT RAIN LOOKS TO MOVE INTO
SBN & FWA AFTER 6Z, SO SOMETHING FOR THE 12Z TAF SET TO TACKLE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LMZ043-
046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...ROLLER
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