603
FXUS63 KIWX 021812 CCA
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
211 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AREA-WIDE THROUGH
THIS EVENING. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDICES
BETWEEN 100 TO 110 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
- THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR FRIDAY FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PEAK HEAT
INDICES FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 100 TO
105 DEGREES, HIGHEST IN THE WARNING AREA.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY AFTER 3 PM EDT WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, HEAVY RAIN, AND LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN THREATS.
- HOT AND HUMID FOR THE 4TH OF JULY WITH UP TO 70% CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ISOLATED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
2-11 PM EDT WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HEAVY RAIN, AND
LIGHTNING AS THE MAIN THREATS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
ONE MORE DAY OF DRY CONDITIONS TODAY BEFORE THE EXPANSIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGES BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN OUT, ALLOWING FOR
RAIN/STORM CHANCES TO RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HIGH HEAT AND HUMID CONTINUES TODAY WITH THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN
EFFECT AREA-WIDE. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. EXPECT PEAK HEAT INDICES TO 110
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS AMIDST MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT IN WI/IL/IA AND DIVE
SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN BUT MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO YIELD SOME SPS WORTHY
STORMS IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST (ESPECIALLY LA PORTE AND BERRIEN
COUNTIES) OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THIS SYSTEM WOULD ARRIVE
AT A DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE TIME AND THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
BE CAPPED OVERNIGHT, BUT AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS IS
STILL POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY FEATURES BOTH HEAT AND CONVECTION, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE NOW
IN BOTH THREATS. IT APPEARS AS IF THE CONVECTION, AS OF NOW, MAY NOT
IMPACT PEAK DIURNAL HEATING (ESPECIALLY IN OUR EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA). GIVEN THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL MAKE IT TO THE
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S (HIGHEST IN NORTHWEST OHIO), HEAT HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING WAS EXTENDED
UNTIL SUNSET FRIDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US 24, WHILE A HEAT ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. PEAK HEAT INDICES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 100 TO 105 DEGREES,
HIGHEST IN THE WARNING AREA. HEATRISK IS STILL SHOWING MAJOR TO
EXTREME FOR FRIDAY WITH OUR LONG DURATION HEATWAVE CONTINUING. HIGH
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO FUEL SCATTERED RAIN/STORMS.
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 19Z-22Z FRIDAY
ALONG A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFTOVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY,
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT. MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF
STORMS MAY ALSO BE AIDED BY AN MCV MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS FAVORABLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY COULD YIELD
EXPLOSIVE SBCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 4000 J/KG. OTHER FAVORABLE
PARAMETERS INCLUDE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8 C/KM AND
PWATS AROUND 1.5". FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT INVERTED V PROFILES
WITH DCAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG, WHICH ALSO INDICATES ELEVATED POTENTIAL
FOR MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION TO THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT TOMORROW,
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING WILL BE HAZARDS AS WELL.
JULY 4TH WILL NOT BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT, HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER. SATURDAY MARKS THE
BEGINNING OF OUR SLIGHT COOL DOWN, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90 DEGREES. HUMID CONDITIONS STICK AROUND FOR THE HOLIDAY THOUGH
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WITH A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE
VICINITY, CONTINUED HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY. ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT AGAIN IN ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS; EVEN IF STORMS STAY SUB-SEVERE, HEAVY RAIN AND
LIGHTNING WILL STILL BE HAZARDS.
A TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE WESTERN US COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SUNDAY. WHILE IT MAY BE SLIGHTLY
'COOLER' INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, THE LONG TERM
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID
JULY. PERIODIC CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS NEXT WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST US WILL CONTINUE TO PREVENT STORM
INITIATION AROUND THE AREA TODAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THE
HRRR AND THE NAMNEST BOTH HAVE STORMS DYING UPON VACATING LK MI IN
THE 5 TO 9Z WINDOW, WHICH MAY HAVE SOME SPS LEVEL WINDS (30 TO MAYBE
50 MPH) IN THE SBN AREA. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH, SBN
COULD GET A QUICK BUMP MORE WESTERLY AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY GOES
THROUGH. A LAKE BREEZE HAS INITIATED SOME SHOWERS THAT MAY
ESCALATE TO THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S UNCERTAIN HOW
CLOSE TO SBN THEY GET SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME. ADDITIONALLY, 10 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS AS MIXING INTO THE LLJ
OCCURS.
WE'VE ALSO HAD SOME HAZE/GROUND FOG EACH MORNING OF THE LAST FEW.
THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST THAT DIPPED BELOW 6SM AND IT WAS
ONLY FOR AN HOUR AT SBN. THIS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDES LESSER CONFIDENCE IN MORNING HAZE/GROUND FOG.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ FRIDAY FOR
INZ005>008-012>015-020-103-104-116-203-204-216.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM EDT /MIDNIGHT CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM
CDT/ FRIDAY FOR INZ005>008-012>015-020-103-104-116-203-
204-216.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ009-017-018-
022>027-032>034.
OH...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ078>081-177-
277.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ078>081-177-
277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JOHNSON
AVIATION...ROLLER
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