087
FXUS63 KIWX 021820
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
220 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM EDT FOR NORTHERN
INDIANA AND LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
EXPECTED.
- SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 5-11 PM EDT. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- FLOODING CONCERNS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND STORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH SATURDAY. COOLER, IN THE
40S, TO BEGIN THE NEW WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
A SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN KANSAS CONTINUES TO BE OUR FOCUS FOR A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CRITICALLY,
A WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA AS DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MID-50S. SOUTH OF THIS
WARM FRONT, STRATUS IS CLEARING AS WELL. GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY
HANDLING THIS MOISTURE ADVECTION WELL, WHICH BOLSTERS CONFIDENCE IN
THE GUIDANCE. THE SOURCE REGION FOR STORMS LATER TODAY, WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, REMAINS SOCKED IN BENEATH CLOUDS FOR THE TIME BEING. YET,
HREF MEMBERS AND HOURLY CAMS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE, THE STRATUS AND CAP WILL BREAK, RESULTING
IN A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST IN NEAR 5PM EDT.
IN GENERAL, INGREDIENTS REMAIN DISJOINTED WITH DEPARTING 500MB AND
850 MB JETS PLACING OUR AREA IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION BRIEFLY,
ALONG WITH WANING MUCAPE BELOW 1,000 J/KG WHICH CAN BE ENOUGH WHEN
PAIRED WITH 45-50 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR (SEEN HERE). 0-1 KM HELICITY
IS SUPPORTIVE FOR TORNADOES, BUT AGAIN, THE HOLISTIC ENVIRONMENT IS
DISJOINTED/MARGINAL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, TORNADOES, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERNS FROM 5PM AND 11PM EDT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A WEAKENING TREND AS ANY STORMS NEAR THE I-69 CORRIDOR
DUE TO DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AND WANING INSTABILITY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH, CONDUCIVE FOR DOWNPOURS, BUT
AREA-WIDE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE 0.25-0.50". LASTLY,
THE INHERITED WIND ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK BUT LIMITED BY EXISTING
CLOUDINESS. UPSTREAM, WIND GUSTS ARE INCREASING (ABOUT 40-42MPH IN
CENTRAL IL).
ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTS BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TONIGHT'S COLD
FRONT HAS MINIMAL EFFECT AS STRONG RIDGING OFF THE OUTER BANKS
ENCOURAGES WARM, SOUTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE, OVER THE CENTRAL US,
CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY BRINGING ANOTHER WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR
AREA FRIDAY. THIS FAVORS RAIN PRIMARILY SOUTH OF US-24 THAT
GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT THEN SWEEPS THROUGH
SATURDAY. PRECEDING RAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AND LAGGING JET DYNAMICS
LOOK TO LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER RISK ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER, AN
UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO THREATEN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RESULTING IN 0.5 TO 1" OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
SHARPLY COLDER SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50.
THIS REMAINS THE CASE ON TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD,
CANADIAN AIR BECOMES ESTABLISHED VIA EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE. A
CLIPPER SYSTEM PRECEDES THIS, BRINING A 20%-30% CHANCE OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MICHIGAN. LOOK FOR WARMER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
A LOW LEVEL WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
CLEARING KFWA AS OF 18Z AND WILL LIFT NORTH OF KSBN IN THE NEXT
1 TO 2 HOURS. A SHARP IMPROVEMENT IN THE IFR CIGS WILL BE NOTED
WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONG WITH A VEERING OF LOW LEVEL TO THE
SOUTH. BETTER MIXING IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT
IN SOUTH AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35+ KNOTS. AN AREA OF
PRE-FRONTAL FORCING ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCAL POINT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE
20Z TIMEFRAME AND THESE STORMS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHERN
INDIANA BETWEEN 21-01Z. GUSTY WINDS OF 40+ MPH MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
WANING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING SHOULD WEAKEN THESE
THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY APPROACH I-69 CORRIDOR AFTER 01Z. THE APPROACH OF
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALSO ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO AFFECT KSBN LATE EVENING, BUT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL
LIKELY BE IN DIMINISHING STATE BY THIS TIME. STRONG SOUTHERLY
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS COMBINED WITH SOME SFC DECOUPLING SHOULD ALSO
ALLOW SOME LLWS CONDITIONS BEING MET TONIGHT. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR NEW CONVECTION AFTER THIS
FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
INZ005>009-012>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-
116-203-204-216.
OH...NONE.
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ078>080-177-
277.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...MARSILI
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