331
FXUS63 KIWX 031108
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
708 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THIS EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER (ALL
HAZARDS) MAY BE POSSIBLE 7PM-1AM EDT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON SATURDAY. A
FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND LIMA, OH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
- STORMS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. FLOODING ON AREA RIVERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- COLD AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY WASHING OUT ACROSS OUR CWA
AS PARENT SHORTWAVE IS RAPIDLY SHEARED E/NE INTO QUEBEC. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BUT
ANTICIPATE DRY CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE. THE CYCLE THEN STARTS ALL
OVER AGAIN AS ANOTHER UPPER LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
LATER TODAY. SW FLOW/WAA INCREASES DOWNSTREAM SENDING OUR BOUNDARY
BACK NORTH ONCE AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT. FAIRLY STRONG SYSTEM-RELATIVE
300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT NOTED STARTING AROUND 00Z WITH A 40 KT LLJ
AND GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION. COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION (SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S SOUTH) AND
SOME RESIDUAL COLD TEMPS ALOFT SUPPORT MODERATE DESTABILIZATION WITH
SBCAPE'S NEAR 1500 J/KG. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS ARE ALSO 30-40 KTS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. THIS YIELDS AT LEAST A CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER ROUGHLY 23-05Z AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE. THE ONE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE FACTOR IS THAT
CONVECTION MAY REMAIN ALONG ELEVATED PORTIONS OF THE BOUNDARY,
NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
RESIDE AND SEVERE WEATHER (OUTSIDE OF HAIL) IS EASIER TO ACHIEVE.
THIS LEADS TO A LOWER CONFIDENCE SCENARIO BUT IF CONVECTION CAN GET
ROOTED CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WARM FRONT THEN SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
MORE LIKELY. EXTREMELY SATURATED SOILS ALSO RAISE THE RISK OF SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING AS MOIST/UNSTABLE PROFILES WILL LIKELY YIELD
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
ORTHOGONAL TO THE FRONT THOUGH SO NOT EXPECTING A WIDESPREAD OR
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THREAT.
WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF OUR AREA AROUND 06Z WITH A VERY BRIEF LULL
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES 10-12Z. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO
WORK WITH HERE AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES (ALREADY ON THE MARGINAL
SIDE) DROP EVEN FURTHER TO BELOW 6 C/KM. WILL HAVE TO RELY ON
DIURNAL, SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION FOR ANY SEVERE RISK AND THERE
IS A VERY LIMITED WINDOW FOR THAT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE IN OUR FAR
SE WHERE LATER FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY ALLOW A BRIEF WINDOW OF ADEQUATE
INSTABILITY. BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO RESIDE JUST OUTSIDE OUR CWA
THOUGH. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN HERE GIVEN A STRONG
BUT UNDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE AND RELATIVELY WARM MIDLEVEL TEMPS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING ALSO REMAINS A CONCERN BUT FAST STORM MOTIONS AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY LIMIT THE RISK.
WE FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM THIS ACTIVE PATTERN BY NEXT WEEK. STRONG
LONGWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS YIELDING NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMIND US IT IS STILL EARLY APRIL WITH LOWS IN
THE 20S MON NIGHT AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S. EMBEDDED VORT MAX COULD
EVEN BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW CHANCES THOUGH NBM REMAINS DRY. FLOW
FLATTENS LATER IN THE WEEK AND EVENTUALLY TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN
BUT MAIN ZONE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO SET UP NORTH OF OUR AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR CWA UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 705 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS, THEN
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RETURNS LATER TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT FOR BOTH
TERMINALS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH (KFWA AROUND
21-00Z/KSBN AROUND 02Z-06Z). WINDS SHIFT FROM W-NW TO E-SE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE FRONT PASSES. A COLD FRONT REACHES
KSBN CLOSER TO 12Z SAT AM, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN.
LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KFWA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...MCD
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