919
FXUS63 KIWX 231027
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
627 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF US-30 THIS MORNING. SOME LOCALLY
DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE IN FAR NW OHIO AND SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN.
- WARM, DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
FOG IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN AGAIN THIS MORNING. LIGHT NNE FLOW
OFF LAKE HURON SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVER PARTS OF SE MI
AND CONTINUING TO EXPAND SW WITH TIME. MODELS SPLIT ON EXACTLY HOW
FAR SW THIS FOG GETS BUT THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OUR NE COUNTIES
COULD GET CLIPPED. A FEW HRRR AND RAP RUNS HAVE ALSO INDICATED
ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AROUND KFWA AND POINTS SE. LOW
FORECAST CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES ANY PROACTIVE HEADLINE DECISIONS FOR
NOW BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE/SURFACE OBS CLOSELY
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING AND ISSUE ADVISORIES OR SPS'S AS
NECESSARY. OTHERWISE, INCREDIBLY HIGH AMPLITUDE/SHORT WAVELENGTH
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH STRONG AVA/SUBSIDENCE MAINTAINING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST CONUS. SURFACE WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO A
MORE SE AND EVENTUALLY S/SW DIRECTION TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THAT COUPLED WITH SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM
TROUGH/FRONT SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG THREAT FOR SAT AM THOUGH SOME
PATCHY FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES. HIGH TEMPS
LIKELY REACH THE LOW 70S AGAIN TODAY GIVEN SUNNY SKIES (OUTSIDE OF
MORNING FOG/STRATUS) AND DEEP MIXING. LEANED ON THE WARMER AND DRIER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TODAY WHICH GIVES AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 35
PERCENT. THIS IS NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR A SUBSTANTIVE FIRE WX CONCERN
(ESPECIALLY GIVEN VERY LIGHT WIND) BUT IMAGINE FINER FUELS ARE
STARTING TO GET PRETTY DRY. SIMILAR STORY OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY'S
HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER GIVEN INCREASING SW FLOW/LIGHT WAA BUT
DEWPOINTS ALSO CREEP UP A BIT AS WELL. STRONG RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS WEEKEND AS UPSTREAM SURFACE FRONT STALLS AND
WASHES OUT WELL TO OUR NW. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN DOESN'T ARRIVE
UNTIL NEXT THU AND EVEN THAT IS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AS NUMEROUS
SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS FRONT STALLING TO OUR NW AS WELL. REAL RAINFALL
CHANCES DON'T ARRIVE UNTIL AROUND HALLOWEEN BUT THAT IS FAR ENOUGH
OUT THAT MANY THINGS COULD STILL CHANGE. MAIN STORY IS THAT WARM,
DRY AND PLEASANT FALL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL MAINTAIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE
ANTICYCLONE ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND. EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS
ALLOWING STRATUS/FOG TO ADVECT WESTWARD INTO FAR NORTHWEST OHIO,
BUT EXPECTATION IS THAT FOG AT KSBN/KFWA WILL REMAIN MORE
PATCHY IN NATURE WITH ANYTHING LOWER THAN MVFR VSBYS LIKELY
SHORT-LIVED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE PATCHY FOG
DISSIPATES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS FORECAST VALID PERIOD, AND PERSISTENCE OF THIS
PATTERN SUGGESTS MORE PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS AT TERMINALS IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI
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