852
FXUS63 KIWX 250717
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
317 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS FROM AROUND 65 TO 70.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALL
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
- COOLER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 60
DEGREES. FROST POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WAS SPREADING INTO INDIANA FROM
THE NORTHWEST. AN AREA OF FOG WAS DENSE IN SPOTS HAD FORMED IN
A RELATIVELY NARROW BOUNDARY BEHIND THE CLEARING SKIES AND WHERE
WINDS HAD BECOME LIGHT OVER NORTHERN INDIANA. THE FOG IS LIKELY
TO PERSIST PAST DAYBREAK UNTIL ABOUT MID MORNING WHEN THE
RELATIVELY SHALLOW RADIATION INVERSION MIXES OUT. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY IN RESPONSE
TO UPSTREAM ENERGY AMPLIFYING AN UPSTREAM TROF. THIS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE MUCH ABOVE NORTH INTO THE 70S
REACHING NEAR 80 DEGREES IN AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL UNFOLD LATE MONDAY INTO INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENS AND AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROF APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. A BAND OF STRONG MID LEVEL
WINDS REACHING 70 KTS AT 700 MB WILL PROVIDE A SETTING FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
31. BUFKIT PARAMETERS INDICATE MAX CAPE OF 777 J/KG AT FT WAYNE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACH 1.57 MAX MONDAY EVENING. A STUDY
BY LOWER MISSISSIPPI RFC (SEPT 2015) INDICATED THESE VALUES
WERE IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST
OHIO DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL. THESE HIGH VALUES INDICATE
PRECIPITATION RATES COULD EASILY TOP 3"/HR.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COOLER WEATHER. THERE IS
FROST POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
POSTFRONTAL CAA LIKELY TO YIELD SOME STRATUS/BR THIS MORNING
GIVEN RESIDUAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAIN.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THOUGH, PARTICULARLY AT KSBN, AS SOME DRY
AIR WILL ALSO BE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. RETURN TO VFR
ANTICIPATED BY THE AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NE FLOW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...AGD
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