701
FXUS63 KIWX 271934
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
334 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A HIGH SWIM RISK AND BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.
- MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS INTO THE WEEKEND WILL KEEP
HUMIDITY LEVELS ON THE LOW SIDE INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF US ROUTE
24. THE SHEARED UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX/WARM FRONTAL FEATURE THAT
ALLOWED A BAND OF MODERATE RAINFALL TO REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE US
ROUTE 24 CORRIDOR HAS CONTINUED TO SHEAR AND ATTENUATE AS IT
ENCOUNTERS WEAK WESTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES.
THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS LINGERING BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INTO EAST CENTRAL IN/SOUTHWEST OH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWARD SINKING SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA SHOULD ALSO AID IN THE
END TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
LOOKING UPSTREAM. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS PROGRESSING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. SOME PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT PER SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON IN TRAVERSE
CITY MI AREA IS LIKELY MARKING LEADING EDGE OF SOME BETTER ELEVATED
LIFT WITH THIS SHORT WAVE. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HINT
AT INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH FEATURE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
LOWER MI DOWNSTREAM OF THIS WAVE. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO YIELD
A WEAK 200- 500 J/KG MUCAPE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER INTO
SOUTHEAST LOWER MI INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOLLOWING THIS POCKET
OF WEAK MOISTURE POOLING WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH. PROSPECTS IN
REALIZING THIS INSTABILITY DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE
STILL APPEAR TO BE QUITE LOW, ALTHOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SHOWER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN IN THE 00Z-03Z
TIMEFRAME. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
GRADUALLY RAMPS UP FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THIS COLD
ADVECTION OVERNIGHT COULD KEEP JUST ENOUGH WEAK LOW LEVEL
SHALLOW MIXING IN PLACE COUPLED WITH DRY AIR ADVECTION TO
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT FOG CONCERNS.
AN EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, AND BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD ASSURE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH ONSHORE FLOW AND COLD LAKE
MICHIGAN WATERS SHOULD KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN.
ALL INDICATIONS STILL POINT TO OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN PERSISTING INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH A STABLE LONGWAVE PATTERN IN PLACE. MEAN CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE POSITIONING FROM UPPER MS VALLEY INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA SHOULD KEEP LOCAL AREA ON FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THERMAL TROUGH WITH TEMPERATURES JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
SOME SIGNAL STILL REMAINS FOR SOME RETROGRESSION OF BLOCKED PATTERN
TO ALLOW WEAK BACKDOOR COOL FRONT FEATURE SOME TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS BETTER LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION IS STILL QUITE LOW WITH A POSSIBILITY THAT MUCH COLDER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH POTENTIAL BACKDOOR COOL
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND UNCERTAINTY
WITH WESTWARD EXTENT OF RETROGRESSION ARGUE FOR KEEPING BULK OF
FORECAST DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1251 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERED OVER CENTRAL INDIANA. THE SURFACE
FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN INDIANA WAS GENERALLY
LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA DURING THE TAF PERIOD. THE LOW AND MID LEVELS WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH CLOUD COVER LIMITED TO JUST HIGH CLOUDS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO 8 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR INZ103-203.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 1 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR INZ103.
OH...NONE.
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 2 AM EDT THURSDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR MIZ177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LMZ043.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
LMZ046.
DISCUSSION...MARSILI
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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