211
FXUS63 KIWX 180526
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1226 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD THURSDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 50. TURNING SHARPLY COLDER
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 25.
- RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY. ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH.
- COLD FRIDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 25. SEASONABLY MILD SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS AROUND 40 TO 45.
- DRY AND COLD SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION ADEQUATELY DESCRIBED THE FORECAST
TEMPERATURE CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS "...A WILD ROLLER
COASTER RIDE...". HIGHS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL RANGE FROM THE
20S TO THE 50S. AT THE ONSET, MILD AIR WAS SPREADING NORTHEAST OVER
SNOW COVERED GROUND. SNOW DEPTHS THIS MORNING WERE GENERALLY 3" OR
LESS. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS WERE MAINLY LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH. COMBINED RAINFALL AND SNOW MELT AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE MOSTLY UNDER 1 INCH. GIVEN THE VERY LOW RIVER STAGES AND
LIMITED WATER FROM SNOW MELTING AND RAIN FALLING, HYDROLOGIC ISSUES
AREA NOT EXPECTED.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF A FLASH FREEZE
EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL HELP
EVAPORATE OR SUBLIMATE WATER AND ICE, AND SHOULD HELP LIMIT TRAFFIC
ISSUES. SOME CONCERN WITH VERY STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. BUFKIT GFS INDICATED WINDS AT SBN (SOUTH "
BEND) UP TO 80 MPH AT ONLY 2000 FEET. THE FRONTAL INVERSION IS
STRONG AND WILL HELP LIMIT MIXING DOWN OF THE HIGHER MOMENTUM. RAIN
WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING EARLY FRIDAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF LESS (AROUND HALF AN INCH
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE MICHIGAN LINE TO LESS THAN 1/2" OVER INDIANA
AND OHIO. AS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE MILD AND MAINLY DRY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE TAF PERIOD RESULTING IN VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS AND RAIN. AT THIS HOUR, NUMEROUS OBSERVATIONS IN THE
WARM SECTOR (EASTERN NEBRASKA, CENTRAL KANSAS) ARE REPORTING
WIND GUSTS OF 35-40 KNOTS. ALONG THE COLD FRONT, WIND GUSTS OF
45-55 KNOTS (OR MORE) ARE NOTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN BOTH SITES
SEEING AT LEAST 36-38 KNOT WIND GUSTS TODAY WITH AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR HIGHER GUSTS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN LLWS TODAY AMID A MODEST LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
AND AN INCREDIBLE WIND FIELD. RAW MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SEVERAL
HOURS OF 55KT WIND AROUND 2KFT; 70 KTS AT 4K FT.
ANTECEDENT DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME THIS MORNING TO
SATURATE, THUS, THE START TIME OF RAIN AND FALLING CEILINGS HAS
BEEN DELAYED WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. AS THIS STORM SYSTEM
QUICKLY EXITS, THERE IS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT FOR CEILINGS TO
RISE BEYOND IFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ043-
046.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...SKIPPER
AVIATION...BROWN
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