343
FXUS63 KIWX 140829
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
429 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES MOST PERIODS WILL BE
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 TO NEAR 85 EACH DAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWS FROM 60 TO 65. SOMEWHAT COOLER, LESS HUMID
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020
AN UPPER LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST AND SHOULD SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS NORTH OF THE LOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO
INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME CONCERN FOR COLD AIR
FUNNELS GIVEN SOME FUNNEL ACTIVITY NEAR THE LOW OVER ILLINOIS
YESTERDAY; HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS 700 MB THERMAL FORECAST. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE HIGHLY DIURNAL AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON INTO
MID EVENING. D-CAPE VALUES COULD REACH 1600 J/KG OR HIGHER
INDICATING GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL FLOW
TODAY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTED TO THE COVERAGE
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN THE LATEST HIGH RES WPC MODELS.
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS
SATURDAY GIVEN THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROF ALONG WITH SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS
CONCERN WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM RISK THAT WAS EXPANDED IN
COVERAGE SATURDAY. A NEW DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK WAS ADDED FOR
NORTHWEST OHIO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL IN THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL AMPLIFY
NORTH ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA AND CAUSE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW
TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS COMING
WEEK. FOR THIS PACKAGE, HAVE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020
VFR METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOR CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF KFWA
FRIDAY EVENING. CONVECTION POTENTIAL TIED TO MODERATE DIURNAL
INSTABILITY AND SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. CHANCES ARE LOW WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A VCTS
MENTION FOR OUTLOOK PURPOSES WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH NEAR KSBN, BUT WILL LEAVE OUT
FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...COBB
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