987
FXUS63 KIWX 221840
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
140 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TRENDING WARMER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- A FEW SYSTEMS TO BRING CHANCES (20-40%) OF SOME LIGHT RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF SNOW SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW EVENTUALLY DISPLACES HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BY MIDWEEK. UNTIL THEN, RETURN FLOW FROM SAID RIDGE
WILL PROMOTE WHILE A MILD FORECAST REMAINS IN
THE CARDS THROUGH MIDWEEK, I AM CONCERNED THIS PERIOD COULD BE
SUBJECT TO FURTHER SCRUTINY IN THE DAYS AHEAD REFRESHING
WARMING TREND TO BEGIN THE WEEK. WARM AIR ADVECTION IS MAXIMIZED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AMID WESTERLY 850-MB FLOW AND RISING 500-MB
HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF AN OMEGA BLOCK SHIFTING EAST OVER
ONTARIO. A WEAK, MOISTURE-STARVED DISTURBANCE RIPPLES THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING ONLY INCREASED
CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MAKE A RUN FOR
40, THEN 50 MONDAY.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE RIPPLES THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW MONDAY NIGHT,
THREATENING TO BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION BACK TO THE AREA AND A
CHANCE FOR RAIN (20-40%). GUIDANCE VARIES SOMEWHAT WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS IMPACT ON OUR ADVERTISED
WARMTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. NEUTRAL ADVECTION, AS ADVERTISED
IN SOME MEMBERS, COULD PERMIT MILD AIR TO CONTINUE. THE NAM IS A
COLD OUTLIER ON TUESDAY WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
MILD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AMID QUICK, BRIEF, SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER IMPULSE.
BEYOND MIDWEEK, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO WINTER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIE, ITS INFLUENCE SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH ALLOWS FOR VFR CONDITIONS. ENOUGH
OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS NORTH OF THE AREA TO ALLOW A LOW LEVEL
JET TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME RESULTANT
GUSTS LOOK TO REACH AROUND 20 KTS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE RELAXING
THIS EVENING.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BROWN
AVIATION...ROLLER
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