250
FXUS63 KIWX 281941
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
241 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, LOOK FOR A MID WEEK WARMUP AND DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT, ON THE POLEWARD EDGE OF A
DEPARTING PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS
SO FAR OVER PROMISED REGARDING THIS LINE. AS A RESULT, I HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO ABOUT 30% THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM
ABOUT 00Z TO 03Z, RESULTING IN BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. LOOK
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S. IT SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME
LAG BETWEEN THE SHOWERS DEPARTING AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. AS
SUCH, PAIRED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, I DO NOT EXPECT REFREEZING OF
ROADS TO BE AN ISSUE.
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER COOL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MONDAY, RESULTING
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. A SECONDARY VORT LOBE
STREAMS IN BY THE AFTERNOON. OUR MOISTURE SOURCE IS SHUTOFF BY
THIS TIME WHICH RESULTS IN A LACKLUSTER RH PROFILE. NONETHELESS,
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER ELUDED TO, NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF HERE IN
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. VARIOUS HIGH PRESSURES PAY US A VISIT:
CONTINENTAL POLAR THROUGH TUESDAY, REPLACED BY CONTINENTAL
TROPICAL MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED BY A SECOND VISIT BY THE CP HIGH. THE
UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY SPLIT FLOW; POLAR JET
NORTH, TROPICAL SOUTH. ALL TOLD, A MOSTLY DRY WEEK WITH SOME
TEMPERATURE VARIATION AS THESE HIGH PRESSURES COME AND GO. PEAK
WARMTH FOR THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY (50 TO 55). PEAK
COLD IS MONDAY NIGHT (NEAR 20), FOLLOWED BY FRIDAY NIGHT (MID-
20S).
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. POST-FRONTAL
CAA/SATURATION AND DEVELOPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY LOCK IN A
MVFR STRATOCU DECK POST-FRONTAL TONIGHT, WITH CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.
SYNOPSIS...BROWN
SHORT TERM...BROWN
LONG TERM...BROWN
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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