017
FXUS63 KIWX 141717
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
117 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR 45-55 MPH SOUTHERLY GUSTS.
- A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- WINDY AND TURNING SHARPLY COLDER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN AND
AROUND THE GREATER SOUTH BEND AREA WHERE ACCUMULATIONS AND
TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
A STRONG ~170 KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL DIVE INTO THE CENTRAL US
CARVING OUT AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 500 HPA HEIGHT MINIMUM THAT WILL
SEND A DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE NORTHEAST FROM IA SUNDAY TO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A CLASSIC EARLY
SPRING STORM SYSTEM FOR THE MIDWEST WITH HEADLINE LEVEL WINDS,
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, IMPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES SWINGS AND
COLD/SNOW.
THE WARM ADVECTION WING ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING 60-70 KT LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BRING THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT THOUGH LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THE REGION OF MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF
THIS WARM FRONT LOOKS TO PRIMARILY PASS NORTH OF THE AREA LATE
TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH VIRGA AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS LOCALLY,
SAVE FOR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MI STATELINE WHERE A LOW CHANCE
POP (20-30%) WAS RETAINED FOR LIGHT MEASURABLE PRECIP.
A VERY WINDY WARM SECTOR THEN BUILDS IN DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS
TEMPERATURES MAKE A RUN A 70F. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND HREF/NBM PROBS
ARE HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF FREQUENT 45-55 MPH GUSTS LATE SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH NOT OUT THE QUESTION. HOPEFULLY NOT THE INTENSITY OF YESTERDAY'S
WIND EVENT WITH A WIND ADVISORY ISSUED THIS GO AROUND GIVEN MORE
LIMITED MIXING DEPTHS.
A VERY NARROW RIBBON ON LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (SFC DEWPOINTS LOW-MID
50S) LIKELY ACCOMPANIES THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT ADVANCING EAST THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. THIS LUCKILY WON'T BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, BUT WITH SUCH A STRONG WIND FIELD
AND FRONTAL FORCING CAN NOT RULE OUT DAMAGING WINDS IF A LOW TOPPED
SQUALL LINE (THIN, POTENTIALLY DEVOID OF LIGHTNING) TRACKS THROUGH.
THIS HAS BEEN A PRETTY CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN CAMS WITH NO CHANGES TO
SPC'S SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT 5) PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING WINDS.
SHARPLY COLDER AIR WRAPS IN THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEEP LOW
LIFTING INTO NORTHERN MICHIGAN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH AN
UNPLEASANT VISIT FROM WINTER. 700 MB DELTA T'S DROP TO NEAR 30C WITH
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT/MOISTURE FOR LES SNOW/BLOWING SNOW WITHIN
THE PIVOTING DEFORMATION AXIS MONDAY, TRANSITIONING TO PURE LE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ADVISORY LEVEL AMOUNTS/IMPACTS
APPEAR PROBABLE IN OUR FAVORED WNW FLOW LES BELTS, INCLUDING
THE SOUTH BEND AREA INTO SOUTHWEST MI, BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING FOR NOW GIVEN THIS IS STILL 4-5 PERIODS OUT. SOME GUSTY
SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY MAKE IT WELL INLAND AS WELL MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING WITH MINOR ACCUMS POSSIBLE. WIND CHILLS LIKELY
FALL TO NEAR ZERO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING OTHERWISE,
WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM TO FOLLOW THROUGH AROUND TUE NIGHT-WED AM
WITH A CHANCE (40- 60%) FOR LIGHT SYSTEM SNOW. THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK THEN FEATURES A WARMING WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
RETURN FLOW WAS JUST BEGINNING FROM EAST AT THE START OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS A LOW
DEVELOPS TO THE WEST AND AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS FARTHER EAST
AND CAUSES THE SURFACE WINDS TO INCREASE AND TO BECOME GUSTY.
WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THE LOWER LAYERS WILL INITIALLY REMAIN QUITE DRY, SO
ARRIVAL OR DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE AT SBN, BUT
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT RAIN AND SNOW OUT GIVEN THE LOW LIKELIHOOD OF
AN OCCURRENCE THERE BEFORE THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIND SHEAR (LLWS), SO HAVE CONTINUED
THE MENTION OF THIS LLWS GIVEN THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTING
THIS SHEAR.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT
EDT /11 PM CDT/ SUNDAY NIGHT FOR INZ005>009-012>015-017-
018-020-022>027-032>034-103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025.
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
LMZ043-046.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page