620  
FXUS63 KIWX 260655  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
255 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR  
60 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.  
 
- RAIN IS POSSIBLE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH COOL  
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025  
 
MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR ADDED CLOUD COVER ALOFT WILL  
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING. EXPECT A SLOW BUT  
STEADY CLEARING TREND FROM NE TO SW THROUGH THE MORNING WITH MOSTLY  
SUNNY SKIES BY AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS HIGHS NEAR 60F DESPITE A COOL  
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE  
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY GIVEN A STRONG RIDGE LOCKED OVER  
THE GREAT LAKES. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F WITH LOWS  
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. THE GROWING SEASON HAS OFFICIALLY ENDED SO NO  
FROST MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD.  
 
A COMPLICATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLUTION IS STILL EXPECTED FOR  
THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK AS THREE DISTINCT UPPER LOWS  
EVENTUALLY MERGE INTO ONE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.  
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS CONTINUES TO BE A DRY OUTLIER IN SUGGESTING  
THE ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIELD WILL PIVOT AROUND OUR CWA. ECMWF,  
CANADIAN, AND NUMEROUS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS PAINT A MUCH DIFFERENT  
PICTURE THOUGH WITH DEFORMATION ZONE PIVOTING OVER AT LEAST OUR SE  
HALF RESULTING IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE RAIN WED MORNING  
THROUGH AT LEAST THU NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN SUCH A  
COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN. DELAYED THE START TIME OF PRECIP A  
BIT AS TUE WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY BUT OTHERWISE DID NOT  
DEVIATE FAR FROM NBM INITIALIZATION. THIS DOES LEAD TO VERY LOW  
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR HALLOWEEN BUT TEMPS DO APPEAR TO  
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE (PARTICULARLY HIGHS) REGARDLESS OF PRECIP  
CHANCES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SUN OCT 26 2025  
 
A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING THROUGH THE DOWNSTREAM PORTION  
OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO  
LOSE ITS INTEGRITY AS IT DROPS SOUTH THIS MORNING. DRIER MID  
LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT IN FROM MICHIGAN ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA  
THIS MORNING RESULTING IN MAINLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE DAYTIME  
HOURS. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL  
SUPPORT A WEAK INVERTED SFC TROUGH FEATURE ACROSS THE LOWER MS  
VALLEY. THE MAIN IMPACT FOR NORTHERN INDIANA WILL BE A STRONGER  
LOW LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT TODAY. MIXING UP 4-5K FEET SHOULD  
SUPPORT EASTERLY AFTERNOON WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS, WITH A  
FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY. LOSS OF BETTER  
MIXING THIS EVENING WILL RESULT IN SOME WIND SPEED DIMINISHMENT,  
BUT EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS SHOULD PERSIST INTO  
TONIGHT GIVEN STRENGTH OF GRADIENT.  
 
 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IN...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...AGD  
AVIATION...MARSILI  
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