993
FXUS63 KIWX 291055
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
555 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRETCH OF SIGNIFICANT COLD LINGERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WITH WIND CHILLS FREQUENTLY BELOW ZERO.
- SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY ALONG AND
NORTH OF US 30 IN IN AND MI. A COATING TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE,
MAINLY NEAR LAKE MI.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVIER LAKE EFFECT SNOW
INCREASES INTO MAINLY LA PORTE IN AND SOUTHWEST BERRIEN MI
COUNTIES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. (MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
LONG DURATION COLD SNAP CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH PERIODS
OF SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS DURING MAINLY THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. LES REMAINS THE PRIMARY FOCUS OTHERWISE WITH NUISANCE TYPE
SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES PERSISTING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ACROSS
FAVORED WNW SNOW BELTS. THIS LAKE PLUME SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE
CONVECTIVE DEPTHS WELL INTO THE DGZ, THOUGH LIGHT FLOW AND
DIMINISHING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTLE LAKE AGGREGATE TROUGH SHOULD
GENERALLY KEEP AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH, AND FOCUSED CLOSER TO
THE LAKE.
ATTENTION LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING THEN TURNS TO
POTENTIAL PERIODS OF MORE IMPACTFUL/INTENSE LES IN FAR NW IN AND FAR
SOUTHWEST MI (PRIMARY LA PORTE AND SOUTHWEST BERRIEN COUNTIES).
SYNOPTICALLY, THE FEATURE OF INTEREST ALOFT WILL BE A WEST TO EAST
ORIENTED POLAR TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY. THIS FEATURE
LIKELY AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LAKE-INDUCED MESO-LOW THAT COULD
CLIP AREAS NEAR THE LAKE WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL
RATES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE KEY THEREAFTER
WILL THEN TURN TO A WOBBLING SINGLE/CONVERGENT BAND THAT DEVELOPS
BEHIND THIS FEATURE IN NORTHERLY FLOW. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
WHICH SHOULD EFFECTIVELY PUSH THE LAKE PLUME WEST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. TRAJECTORIES BECOME MORE NORTHERLY THOUGH INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING WHICH LIKELY BRINGS THE SINGLE
BAND BACK EAST TO NEAR OUR BORDER WITH LOT. THIS DEFINITELY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE A HEALTHY SINGLE BAND WITH INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES
GIVEN THE LONG LAKE CONVERGENCE AND FAVORABLE ALIGNMENT OF SATURATION
AND LIFT WITHIN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. CONSIDERED A 4TH PERIOD
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR LA PORTE COUNTY, BUT OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR
NOW WITH BETTER PROBS (30-50% OR GREATER) FOR WARNING LEVEL
SNOW/IMPACTS MORE INTO LAKE/PORTER IN COUNTIES.
THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR FINALLY LIFTS OUT NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR
A GRADUAL TREND TOWARD MORE TEMPERATE CONDITIONS, THOUGH STILL BELOW
AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. BROAD TROUGHING HOLDS ON OTHERWISE WITH
A COUPLE OF WEAKER SHORTWAVES TAKING AIM ON THE REGION FOR LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES. GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR
TIMING OF THESE WAVES AND SNOW CHANCES (30-50%).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM EST THU JAN 29 2026
LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW IS MAINTAINING SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW AROUND
KSBN BUT VERY DRY AIR/LIMITED INSTABILITY IS KEEPING SNOWFALL
RATES VERY LIGHT. PERIODIC MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOME VERY BRIEF IFR NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 3KFT AT
BOTH SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK IN LAKE
EFFECT SNOW AT KSBN THIS AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE DEPTHS CONTINUE
TO DROP BUT MORE SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
INZ022>027-032>034.
OH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ016-
024-025.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...AGD
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