688
FXUS63 KIWX 091826
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
226 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FROST ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING W/ MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING A 50% OR GREATER CHANCE OF
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 37 DEG F. A FROST ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE. WIDESPREAD MEASUREABLE PRECIPITATION IS
UNLIKELY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
ONE MORE SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT AHEAD W/ HIGH-RES MODELS STILL
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH MINIMUM SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S AS CONTINUED CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS SUPPORT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION DOES KICK IN TONIGHT W/ H85 TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
CLIMB FROM AROUND 5C TO NEAR 10C BY 12Z FRIDAY. THIS CONTRIBUTES
TO SOME UNCERTAINTY W/ THE LIKELIHOOD OF FROST TONIGHT, BUT W/
HIGH-RES ENSEMBLES STILL SUGGESTING A 55-75 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2M
TEMPERATURES UNDER 37 DEG F TONIGHT, FELT IT WAS BEST TO GO
AHEAD W/ A FROST ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS WITH AT LEAST A 50%
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDENCE PER THE HREF. THIS IS VALID FROM 2 AM
UNTIL 9 AM EDT FRIDAY.
A GENERALLY DRY, QUIET PATTERN PREVAILS OTHERWISE. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER
FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY AFTER 21Z) WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SURGE OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER, A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD LIMIT
THE COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY AND PRECLUDE ANY CHANCE FOR MUCH
MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. AFTER
TODAY, A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE W/ DAILY HIGHS EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2025
QUIET, DRY WEATHER PERSISTS WITH VFR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AT LESS THAN 5 KTS. WINDS SWITCH FROM THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST BY TOMORROW LATE IN THE MORNING.
A FEW GUSTS TO 15 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE CLOSE TO LAKE MICHIGAN
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR INZ005>009-
013>015-017-018-020-022>027-032>034-116-216.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ001-002-004-
005-015-016-024-025.
MI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ079>081.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HAMMER
AVIATION...JOHNSON
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