278
FXUS63 KIWX 081020
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
620 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR STORM
TODAY.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN BRINGS PERIODIC CHANCES (50-70%) FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAIN
AND CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
LAST OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR SE AREAS HAVE FINALLY MOVED
AWAY. FOCUS SHIFTS TO A COOL FRONT LOCATED FROM NE WISCONSIN TO
EASTERN IA. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN
EASTERN IA AS WELL AS OVER LK MI, BUT ARE STRUGGLING AT THIS
POINT. FOR THE MOST PART, THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH WITH
LITTLE OVERALL FANFARE, BUT A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS COULD POP UP
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT DROPS SE WITH THE BEST CHANCES CLOSER TO
I-69 AND POINTS EAST. HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO SLGT CHC TO
CHC. BEHIND THE FRONT, SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
SIGNS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN
STARTING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTING INTO
TUESDAY WITH BOTH HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER IN PLAY AS THE
COOL FRONT STALLS AND THEN PUSHES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO WI BY 00Z MON. AN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
IN ADDITION, EVOLUTION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT VARIES WITH
SOME DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING AND OTHERS DEVELOP
UPSTREAM ACROSS WI AND MOVE IN DURING THE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT
HOURS. DCAPE SHOULD BE IN THE 1000 TO 1200 J/KG WITH AT LEAST 25
TO 30 KTS OF SHEAR. SPC HAS UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK (2 OUT OF
5) FROM EASTERN IA INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA,
MAINLY FOR A WIND THREAT AND NON ZERO CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO. GIVEN THE CONCERNS FOR THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
CONVECTION, HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES WITH FOCUS ON LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
CONVECTION IN A HIGH PWAT ENVIRONMENT COULD LEAD TO SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS WITH WPC MAINTAINING THE SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE SAME GENERAL AREA INTO
TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY, WITH ITS POSITION EACH DAY
LIKELY INFLUENCED BY IMPACTS OF SUBTLE WAVES, MCVS AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES MAKING FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST. SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE (FOCUS ON DAMAGING WINDS) AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WAY TOO MANY VARIABLES THAT
FAR OUT TO MESS WITH ANYTHING IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHILE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A
COLD FRONT (AS WELL AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS) HAVE
CONTINUED WITH DRY TAFS AND AT MOST A BRIEF TEMPO AT KSBN FOR
SOME LOWER CLOUDS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...FISHER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page