918
FXUS63 KIWX 150457
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1257 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
UNCERTAIN WITH INTENSITY DEPENDENT ON HOW PREVIOUS ACTIVITY
EVOLVES.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXIST
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
DEPENDENT ON THE PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
- A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SWATHS
OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS
AND HIGH RIVER AND LAKE LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHILE A PRIMARY TROUGH WILL LIFT OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE COMING 12-18 HOURS, MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
WAVES AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH THROUGH THE ACTIVE FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FAIRLY
SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.2-1.4 INCHES, WHICH WILL AID IN PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS. A FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN,
THOUGH A FLOODING THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT FURTHER SOUTH.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT REMAINS COMPLICATED TODAY WITH
INSTABILITY LOOKING MORE DIFFICULT TO COME BY AS EARLY MORNING
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND INTERMITTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIMIT
CAPE VALUES. THAT SAID, STRONG MID- LEVEL FLOW WITH 40-50 KNOTS
OF 0-6KM SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IF ADEQUATE SURFACE HEATING AND SUBSEQUENT
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. FOR NOW THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY LOOKS
CONDITIONAL BUT WORTH WATCHING.
A SHARPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG SHEAR
AND ADEQUATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BRING ANOTHER DAY OF AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE LIKELY
ARRIVAL OF A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH BY THIS WEEKEND, WHICH HAS
TRIGGERED AN EARLY HIGHLIGHT BY SPC FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
ON SATURDAY. A SHARP COOL-DOWN AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY, WITH A MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT WED APR 15 2026
A LINE OF STRONG SHRA/TSRA WITH WIND GUSTS 40-50 KTS/CIGS 015-025K
FT AGL/VSBY 1-3SM EXTENDING FROM SRN LAKE MICHIGAN ACROSS SRN MI
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO NRN IN THROUGH 15/12Z
IMPACTING, THE TERMINALS AT KSBN (BETWEEN 15/04-07Z) AND KFWA
(BETWEEN 15/06-09Z). ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING NORTHERN IN BETWEEN 15/12-16Z, MVFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST-TO-EAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR INZ005>009-012-014-
103-104-116-203-204-216.
OH...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ001-002-004-005.
MI...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MIZ078>081-177-277.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EDWARDS
AVIATION...RASMUSSEN
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