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FXUS63 KIWX 251041
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
641 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST
INDIANA THIS MORNING.
- DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS AROUND 50.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
YET ANOTHER DAY WHERE FOG IS THE ONLY MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. THIS
MORNING'S FOG FORECAST IS MORE CHALLENGING THAN YESTERDAY BECAUSE
WINDS HAVE VEERED TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AND WE LOST
GOOD LAKE ERIE CONTRIBUTION. STILL, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS EXIST WITH THE LOSS OF ANY UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS
AND SOME MOISTURE APPEARS TO STILL BE BLEEDING INTO NORTHWEST
OH FROM THE LAKE. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NARROW SWATH OF
DENSE FOG DEVELOPING ALONG THE MAUMEE RIVER WITH SOME
OBSERVATIONAL EVIDENCE STARTING TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA. CONFIDENCE
IN WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS MUCH LOWER THIS MORNING AND FOR NOW
SEEMS TO BE MORE OF A LOCALIZED, SPS-LEVEL EVENT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR OBS CLOSELY THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONSIDER A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE FORT WAYNE TO WAUSEON CORRIDOR IF NECESSARY.
LACK OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND SOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA TODAY
SHOULD PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MOST WITH SOME MID 70S
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SW. AFTERNOON RH VALUES DROP TO AROUND 35
PERCENT AND DRY FINE FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SOME CONCERN FOR
SMALL FIELD FIRES (LIMITED BY VERY LIGHT WINDS). WINDS VEER EVEN
MORE FOR MONDAY MORNING AND WHILE SOME PATCHY FOG MAY STILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN LIGHT WINDS, NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD/DENSE FOG
AT THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY AS CROSSOVER TEMPS MAY BE HARDER TO EXCEED
FOR MONDAY MORNING. A WEAK FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS OUR NORTH ON
MONDAY AND A BRIEF RETURN TO COOL NE FLOW ARRIVES TUE MORNING. THIS
WILL BE ANOTHER DAY TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN ENE
FLOW OVER THE VERY WARM LAKES. LIGHT S/SW FLOW RETURNS WED AND THU
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND HIGHS SURGE WELL INTO THE 70S (POSSIBLY
NEAR 80 FAR SW). THIS FRONT ALSO WASHES OUT ACROSS OUR NORTH AS
PARENT TROUGH LIFTS INTO QUEBEC AND RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR NW ON THU
BUT CHANCES ARE LOW AND IMPACTS NIL. SW FLOW QUICKLY RECHARGES
HEADING INTO HALLOWEEN WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S AND MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT DECENT SYSTEM
ARRIVING SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES.
STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR SUBTLE CHANGES BUT FOR NOW BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM EDT SUN OCT 25 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE 12Z TAFS WITH
MAIN CONCERN CENTERED ON FIRST FEW HOURS OF THIS VALID PERIOD
AND FOG POTENTIAL. HI-RES GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
SUPPORT FAR NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO FOR FOG
FORMATION THIS MORNING, WITH FAVORED AREAS SUGGESTING A BIT OF A
TERRAIN COOL DRAINAGE EFFECT. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE VEERED A BIT
OVER PAST 24 HOURS AND INFLUENCE FROM EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS
NOT AS SUBSTANTIAL TODAY, AND CORRESPONDING DEPTH OF MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE A BIT MORE SHALLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN QUICKER
MIXING OUT OF FOG THIS MORNING, LIKELY AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
14Z. KFWA STILL STANDS INLINE FOR BEST CHANCE OF IFR OR EVEN
BRIEF LIFR CONDITIONS WITH THE FOG THROUGH 14Z. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER AT KSBN BUT WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN TEMPO MVFR VSBYS
FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE REST OF THE PERIOD
SHOULD FEATURE VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW (5 KNOTS
OR LESS) DEVELOPING ALONG WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...MARSILI
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