414
FXUS63 KIWX 071704
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
104 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH SATURDAY, BEST
CHANCES (30-50%) DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS
FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AT THIS TIME, ANY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BUT WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, A FEW SHOWERS WERE ONGOING IN SE PARTS OF THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE. ALSO MONITORING
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT WITH VSBYS NEAR OR BELOW 1/2SM IN NE
AREAS AND MORE HIT AND MISS IN OTHERS, FOCUSED ON AREAS WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURRED. WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS FOR POSSIBLE DENSE FOG HEADLINES.
OTHERWISE, FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME EVEN MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS
THE REGION. ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NE
INTO A MOIST, MODESTLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE DURING PEAK HEATING
TO BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO SOME AREAS.
WHILE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED, AS WAS NOTED
YESTERDAY THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND REPEATED TRAINING IN A FEW AREAS
CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO LOCAL 2 TO 4 INCH RAIN TOTALS. WILL
MAINTAIN SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS AGAIN INTO THIS EVENING TO HANDLE
THE EXPECTED COVERAGE.
A SOMEWHAT STRONGER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS TROUGH A VERY BRIEF LULL IN PRECIP WILL OCCUR SAT NIGHT
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PARTS OF SUNDAY BEFORE THE FRONT RETURNS
BACK NORTH ACROSS THE AREA AND THEN STALL, POTENTIALLY SETTING
THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
BRING CONCERNS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH MODELS SHOWING SOME
INCREASED CONSISTENCY IN PORTIONS OF IL/IN SEEING A GREATER
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. AS A RESULT, THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH
THE SIGNALS HAVE INCREASED, NOT BY ANY MEANS A SLAM DUNK AS
SIMILAR SETUPS IN PAST WEEKS HAVE NOT FULLY TRANSPIRED AS TIMING
OF WAVES AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT ARE ALWAYS TRICKY TO PIN DOWN
THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
SOMEWHAT AGITATED CUMULUS IS NOTED OVER CENTRAL IN, DRIFTING
NORTHEAST IN THE VICINITY OF A WASHED-OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL FAVORS ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE BROADER KFWA AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. TOWARD KSBN, SATELLITE TRENDS APPEAR MORE
STABLE RESULTING IN ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE THE WET WEATHER
THERE.
UPSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN MN IS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DISSIPATE BEFORE MAKING IT
TO NORTHEAST INDIANA NEAR DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT UPSTREAM MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS LATER IN THE MORNING BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO WEAK FORCING.
WIND TONIGHT ABOVE 5 KNOTS IS FAVORED TO PREVENT BR/FG. WILL
PASS ALONG TO THE INCOMING SHIFT TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
IFR STRATUS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...BROWN
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