343  
FXUS63 KIWX 140829  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
429 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM THIS  
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCES MOST PERIODS WILL BE  
OVER NORTHWEST OHIO INTO NORTHEAST INDIANA AND INTO FAR SOUTHERN  
LOWER MICHIGAN. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 80 TO NEAR 85 EACH DAY THROUGH  
THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWS FROM 60 TO 65. SOMEWHAT COOLER, LESS HUMID  
AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020  
 
AN UPPER LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST AND SHOULD SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
STORMS NORTH OF THE LOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHEST  
CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO  
INTO FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOME CONCERN FOR COLD AIR  
FUNNELS GIVEN SOME FUNNEL ACTIVITY NEAR THE LOW OVER ILLINOIS  
YESTERDAY; HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL SHOULD  
STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WHICH IS  
SUPPORTED BY THE GFS 700 MB THERMAL FORECAST. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD  
BE HIGHLY DIURNAL AND SHOULD BE FOCUSED BETWEEN MID AFTERNOON INTO  
MID EVENING. D-CAPE VALUES COULD REACH 1600 J/KG OR HIGHER  
INDICATING GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL FLOW  
TODAY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK. HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTED TO THE COVERAGE  
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN THE LATEST HIGH RES WPC MODELS.  
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER STORMS  
SATURDAY GIVEN THE APPROACH OF A WEAK TROF ALONG WITH SOME UPPER  
LEVEL SUPPORT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED THIS  
CONCERN WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE STORM RISK THAT WAS EXPANDED IN  
COVERAGE SATURDAY. A NEW DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK WAS ADDED FOR  
NORTHWEST OHIO SUNDAY WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL IN THE AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 356 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020  
 
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL AMPLIFY  
NORTH ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA AND CAUSE A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW  
TO DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM REACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOMEWHAT COOLER  
AND DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS COMING  
WEEK. FOR THIS PACKAGE, HAVE DRY WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 111 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2020  
 
VFR METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST  
PERIOD. PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOR CONVECTION IN VICINITY OF KFWA  
FRIDAY EVENING. CONVECTION POTENTIAL TIED TO MODERATE DIURNAL  
INSTABILITY AND SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE  
OHIO VALLEY. CHANCES ARE LOW WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A VCTS  
MENTION FOR OUTLOOK PURPOSES WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD  
ALSO BE SOME SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH NEAR KSBN, BUT WILL LEAVE OUT  
FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...SKIPPER  
SHORT TERM...SKIPPER  
LONG TERM...SKIPPER  
AVIATION...COBB  
 
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