240
FXUS63 KIWX 010523
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1223 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW, ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE, WILL SLOWLY
TAPER OFF THIS EVENING. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS CLOSER TO LAKE MICHIGAN. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE AN INCH OR LESS.
- FALLING TEMPERATURES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT WILL FREEZE ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE ON UNTREATED ROADS. USE CAUTION OVERNIGHT IF
ATTENDING ANY NEW YEARS CELEBRATIONS.
- SEASONABLY COLD AND MAINLY DRY THURSDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 828 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT WELL DEFINED ON RADAR,
CURRENTLY FROM KNOX TO WARSAW TO NAPOLEON. AS THE BAND PASSES
OVERHEAD, HIGHLY VARIABLE VSBYS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH POCKETS
OF 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE FOR A FEW MINUTES BEFORE IMPROVING. AS THE
COLDER AIR FILTERS IN, ANY WET, UNTREATED ROADS ARE BEGINNING TO
FREEZE OVER, WITH REPORTS OF ICY CONDITIONS NORTH OF THE TOLL
ROAD INTO LOWER MI. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, OVERALL RETURNS HAVE
BEEN SLOWLY DECREASING BUT LIGHT SNOW STILL BEING REPORTED.
BEHIND THE FRONT, RETURNS HAVE ALSO BEEN DECREASING, BUT ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT IS RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW AND EVEN
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP, EXTENDING
FROM BENTON HARBOR TO MARSHALL MI, WILL TRANSLATE SE BRINGING AN
END TO THE MEASURABLE PRECIP FOR MOST AREAS. CONFIDENCE IN LAKE
RESPONSE IS STILL RATHER LOW DESPITE FAVORABLE DELTA T'S AS
DEPTH OF MOISTURE ISN'T OVERLY FAVORABLE. WILL TRY TO CLEAN UP
THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
TRENDS.
IF YOU ARE OUT FOR ANY NEW YEARS CELEBRATIONS OVERNIGHT, MAKE
SURE TO ALLOW PLENTY OF TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATIONS AND ERR
ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION FOR TRAVEL IF THERE ARE ANY MITIGATING
CIRCUMSTANCES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL PV ANOMALY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED
HEIGHT FALLS ALONG WITH A SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND FAVORABLE
LEFT EXIT UPPER JET SUPPORT (130 KT 250 MB JET) UNDERCUTTING
THIS PV ANOMALY IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO
BLOSSOM OVER THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN 19-22Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS (OR POSSIBLY A FEW SNOW SQUALLS) THEN
BECOMES A CONCERN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH IN THE ROUGHLY THE 22-03Z
WINDOW ALONG A SHARPENING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE. 0-1 KM
THETA-E LAPSE RATES NEAR -1 TO -2 K/KM IMMEDIATELY ALONG THIS
FGEN RESPONSE, MAXIMIZED FROM THE MICHIGAN BORDER SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTHEAST IN AND NORTHWEST OH WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SQUALLS. QUICK MOVEMENT WILL HOLD SNOW
TOTALS IN THE 0.5-2" RANGE FOR MOST, WITH SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT
BRINGING TOTALS MORE INTO THE 2-3" AROUND SOUTH BEND AND
SOUTHWEST MI. UNTREATED ROADS ARE LIKELY SLICK AND SNOW COVERED
FOR MOST THIS EVENING.
POST-FRONTAL CAA AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FILTER IN THEN INTO
THURSDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND SNOW
SHOWERS, MAINLY TONIGHT IN OUR TYPICAL NW FLOW LES BELTS WHERE AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OF SNOW MAY FALL. ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION
FOLLOWS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SNOW FLURRIES. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK APPEARS RELATIVELY QUIET AND WARMER OTHERWISE
AS HEIGHTS RELAX INTO A LOWER AMPLITUDE WEST-NORTHWEST SPLIT FLOW
REGIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
ROAD CONDITIONS BEHIND THIS EVENING'S SYSTEM AND FROM OUR NEXT
SYSTEM COULD STILL BE SLIPPERY AS TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THURSDAY AM.
THE TROUGH THAT CAUSED THE DOSE OF SYSTEM SNOW/DRIZZLE THIS EVENING
AND ALLOWED FOR A TRANSITION TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING PUSHES EASTWARD TONIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW LOOKS TO
BE LIGHT AND SO FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVILY
IMPACTED; MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE WORST.
A PERIOD OF PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATER
MORNING INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK SYSTEM AS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION.
THIS NEXT WEAK SYSTEM ATTEMPTS TO BRING SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW THIS
EVENING ON THE BACK OF AN ARRIVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. IT
APPEARS MUCH MORE DRY AIR IS PREVALENT TO HELP KEEP FLIGHT
CONDITIONS TENDING TOWARDS VFR. STILL CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME
MVFR VIS AND POTENTIALLY SOME TIMES OF MVFR CIGS, BUT THEY DON'T
APPEAR TO BE PREDOMINANT.
EXPECT WINDS TO BACK FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO MORE WESTERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY. INITIAL BREEZY WINDS AT OR AROUND 10 KTS IS EXPECTED
TO RELAX OVERNIGHT, BUT A PERIOD OF AROUND-10 KT WINDS IS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
UPDATE...FISHER
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...ROLLER
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