740
FXUS63 KIWX 240745
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
345 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS EXPECTED (70-80%) LATER TODAY. A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE (20-30%).
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-30. HIGHEST CHANCES (30-60%) WEDNESDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY THE LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE MID
50S) HAVE SEEN SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AND MIST DEVELOP WITH
SEVERAL REPORTED AUTOMATED VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 2 TO 3
MILES. WITH THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE MOVING EASTWARD STILL OVER
IL AS SEEN ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC, ANTICIPATE AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN THE MIST AND FOG AS THIS HAPPENS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. THE ALMOST
CALM WINDS SO FAR HAS MITIGATED THE FOG COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
WITH LACK OF MIXING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS
WITH THE VERY LIMITED SHEAR/FORCING. THERE IS A BIT OF
DISAGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE WITH HOW FAST THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH AND BEGINS TO CLEAR OUT BUT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA SHOULD SEE THE RAIN SHOWERS COMING TO AN END AFTER 2-3 PM
EDT AND AREAS FURTHER EAST WOULD BE SEVERAL HOURS LATER. HIGHS
TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
WITH RIDGING PUSHING IN BEHIND TODAY'S DISTURBANCE, MEMORIAL
DAY HOLIDAY IS SETTING UP TO BE A FAIRLY DECENT DAY WEATHER WISE
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S) AND CLEARING
SKIES. MAY BE A BIT STICKY FOR SOME AS DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN
THE 50S.TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE IN SIMILAR SHAPE WITH JUST A FEW
DEGREES WARMER FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES AND BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON (TD'S IN THE LOW 60S) WITH MOISTURE
PUSHING NORTHWARD ONCE AGAIN WITH A BOUNDARY SET UP JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CWA GETS DISPLACED NORTHWARD WITH A BUILDING
BERMUDA HIGH. WEDNESDAY WE SEE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA INCREASE WITH THIS INTRUSION. A PASSING LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST DOES PUSH BACK ON THIS
MOIST AIRMASS BACK TO THE SOUTH. A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE LOOKS TO
SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND GETS WELL UP INTO CENTRAL
CANADA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL SET UP OUR AREA FOR A RETURN TO
DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THIS PATTERN IS SHAPING UP TO BE A
BIT OF AN OMEGA BLOCKING SET-UP WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THIS PERIOD,
WITH LIFR POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE INCREASES/ADVECTS
NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE PUSHING EASTWARD
INTO THE REGION. CIGS/VSBYS DROP WITH MIST AND SOME GROUND FOG
DEVELOPMENT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE AND ALSO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
AFTER 12Z FOR KSBN AND AFTER 15Z AT KFWA. WINDS SHIFT BEHIND
THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST- NORTHWEST, WITH CEILINGS LIFTING TOWARDS
MVFR/VFR IN THE LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH GUIDANCE DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE
IMPROVEMENTS WILL ARRIVE.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANDERSEN
AVIATION...ANDERSEN
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