250  
FXUS63 KIWX 281941  
AFDIWX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA  
241 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021  
 
RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS.  
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S. WHILE IT WILL BE COOLER ON MONDAY  
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, LOOK FOR A MID WEEK WARMUP AND DRY  
CONDITIONS THIS WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021  
 
A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS IS STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP AT THIS TIME  
AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT, ON THE POLEWARD EDGE OF A  
DEPARTING PACIFIC MOISTURE PLUME. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS  
SO FAR OVER PROMISED REGARDING THIS LINE. AS A RESULT, I HAVE  
LIMITED POPS TO ABOUT 30% THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  
 
THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM  
ABOUT 00Z TO 03Z, RESULTING IN BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS. LOOK  
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE 20S. IT SEEMS LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME  
LAG BETWEEN THE SHOWERS DEPARTING AND THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. AS  
SUCH, PAIRED WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, I DO NOT EXPECT REFREEZING OF  
ROADS TO BE AN ISSUE.  
 
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER COOL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MONDAY, RESULTING  
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. A SECONDARY VORT LOBE  
STREAMS IN BY THE AFTERNOON. OUR MOISTURE SOURCE IS SHUTOFF BY  
THIS TIME WHICH RESULTS IN A LACKLUSTER RH PROFILE. NONETHELESS,  
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 231 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021  
 
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER ELUDED TO, NOT MUCH TO SPEAK OF HERE IN  
THE LONG TERM FORECAST. VARIOUS HIGH PRESSURES PAY US A VISIT:  
CONTINENTAL POLAR THROUGH TUESDAY, REPLACED BY CONTINENTAL  
TROPICAL MIDWEEK, FOLLOWED BY A SECOND VISIT BY THE CP HIGH. THE  
UPPER-AIR PATTERN IS CHARACTERIZED BY SPLIT FLOW; POLAR JET  
NORTH, TROPICAL SOUTH. ALL TOLD, A MOSTLY DRY WEEK WITH SOME  
TEMPERATURE VARIATION AS THESE HIGH PRESSURES COME AND GO. PEAK  
WARMTH FOR THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY (50 TO 55). PEAK  
COLD IS MONDAY NIGHT (NEAR 20), FOLLOWED BY FRIDAY NIGHT (MID-  
20S).  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO A CHANCE  
FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. POST-FRONTAL  
CAA/SATURATION AND DEVELOPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY LOCK IN A  
MVFR STRATOCU DECK POST-FRONTAL TONIGHT, WITH CLEARING LATE  
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.  
 

 
   
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IN...NONE.  
MI...NONE.  
OH...NONE.  
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR LMZ043-046.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...BROWN  
SHORT TERM...BROWN  
LONG TERM...BROWN  
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL  
 
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX  
 
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:  
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX  
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA  
 
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