714
FXUS63 KIWX 191025
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
625 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MODERATE SWIM RISK FOR NORTHERN BERRIEN COUNTY
BEACHES TODAY. BREAKING WAVES OF 2-3 FT AND CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED.
- LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- WIDESPREAD, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY
WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1-3" ARE EXPECTED.
- COOL WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
ANOTHER QUIET DAY TODAY WITH SOME SHORTWAVE RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE AND
COOL WNW FLOW OVER THE AREA. AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING, HIGHS
WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THOUGH PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
GIVEN SOME AIRMASS MODIFICATION UNDER PEAK JUNE SUN. NEXT SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES TONIGHT IN NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WAVE WILL BE INCREASINGLY
SHEARED AS IT PASSES OUR AREA AND RESIDENT AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND
STABLE. STILL, COULD BE JUST ENOUGH FORCING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE
TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT,
ESPECIALLY FOR OUR N/NW ZONES WHERE BETTER MIDLEVEL CVA WILL RESIDE.
HELD OFF ON ANY THUNDER MENTION AND ANY RAIN WILL BE VERY LIGHT. ANY
RESIDUAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MIDDAY SAT AND
EXPECT A VERY PLEASANT SAT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
A MUCH STRONGER WAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH
SOME RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER JET SUPPORT YIELDING MODEST SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS. FAR BETTER MOISTURE RETURN NOTED HERE WITH A 40+ KT
LLJ DEVELOPING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD
REGARDING EXACT SURFACE LOW TRACK. SLIM MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE KEEPS SURFACE LOW (AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY) JUST SOUTH
OF OUR CWA. HOWEVER, THERE ARE PLENTY OF NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS (NAM AND
ECMWF) AND A TRACK RIGHT THROUGH OUR CWA REMAINS POSSIBLE. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF
US-24 FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SURFACE
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AREN'T GREAT BUT WIND/SHEAR PROFILES ARE OBVIOUSLY
SUPPORTIVE AND COULD YIELD ORGANIZED CONVECTION IF THE INSTABILITY
MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH. REGARDLESS OF EXACT TRACK/SEVERE WEATHER
CONCERNS, A LARGE SWATH OF 1-2" OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH POCKETS OF
3" POSSIBLE IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE
HYDRO CONCERNS AS WELL.
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR MON/TUE AS MIDLEVEL RIDGING/SURFACE HIGH
BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MORE LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE MID-LATE
WEEK AS SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS GLIDE THROUGH THE REGION IN NORTHWEST
FLOW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND PERIODIC SHOWER
CHANCES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY. A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND
4-5KFT CEILINGS AT KSBN TONIGHT BUT NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. WNW
WINDS MAY GUST UP TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AGD
AVIATION...AGD
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