030
FXUS63 KIWX 260549
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1249 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH A FEW POST FRONTAL DIPS SUNDAY AND THURSDAY.
- SMALL CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION.
- DEEPER SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE FOR START OF FEB, BUT EXACT
IMPACTS AND TIMING REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
PEEKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE AREA HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM ABOVE FREEZING, EVEN WHERE SNOWPACK EXISTS (ALBEIT A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN OTHER AREAS). COLD FRONT, EXTENDING FROM NE
WISCONSIN INTO CENTRAL IL AND TAKING ITS TIME WORKING EAST.
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW AS THE FRONT PASSES WILL RESIDE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WI INTO LOWER MI (N OF OUR AREA) THIS EVENING
SO MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST.
A BRIEF COOL OFF IS IN STORE FOR SUN INTO SUN NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT, BEFORE WAA MAKES ITS FIRST ATTEMPT OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY. DECENT TEMP GRADIENT MAY SETUP MON AND
TUES DUE TO IMPACTS FROM FAST MOVING TROUGH MON AFTERNOON INTO
MON EVENING LIMITING NE EXTENT OF WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR UNTIL
LATER TUESDAY. THE SURGE OF WAA WILL BE AIDED BY A INCREASING
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH 925 MB WINDS 45 TO 50 KTS AND 850 MB WINDS
50 TO 60 KTS. SOME QUESTIONS REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH OF THIS CAN
MIX TO THE SFC, BUT CONSENSUS IS TO INCREASE WINDS SOMEWHAT OVER
LAND AND WATER.
A SLIGHTLY STRONGER TROUGH DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY,
TEMPORARILY SHUNTING THE WARM AIR BACK SW AND MAYBE BRINGING A
NARROW WINDOW FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS (LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE).
A LARGER SHIFT IN THE PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE LATE THURSDAY
AND MORESO INTO THE WEEKEND AS MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW SITTING IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION 12Z FRI AND
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. AS
WOULD BE EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT, MODEL AGREEMENT IS NO WHERE AS
STRONG IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH TIMING ISSUES ON ARRIVAL OF STRONG
WAA AS WELL AS INCREASING MOISTURE TO BRING PRECIP CHANCES INTO
THE AREA. MODEL BLENDS CARRYING SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS AS EARLY AS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT DRY AIRMASS SHOULD REMAIN AND LIKELY
SLOWER TREND TO THE UPPER LOW EJECTING AS IT BECOMES NEGATIVELY
TILTED AND DEEPENS. PATTERN RECOGNITION POINTS TOWARDS DELAYING
ONSET OF PRECIP WITH MAJORITY OF OFFICES IN CONCENSUS. HAVE
LIMITED MEASURABLE POPS UNTIL FRI NIGHT. BY THIS POINT, WARM AIR
ALOFT SHOULD BE MORE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA WITH AT LEAST
SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING PRECIP BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A NON-
DIURNAL TEMP TREND WAS INTRODUCED BY MOST OFFICES FRI NIGHT WITH
LOWS HAPPENING EARLY THEN WARMING OVERNIGHT INTO SAT. PLENTY OF
TIME TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST SUN JAN 26 2025
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES, WITH A
BRIEF DROP TO MVFR POSSIBLE FROM THIS MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON. A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM SW TO NE-EVENTUALLY STALLING BY THE
EVENING AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS SOUTHWARD TOWARDS NORTHERN
IN/LOWER MI. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS THAT WE'LL HAVE
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE 12 TO 18Z TIME FRAME [KSBN
12 TO 16Z; KFWA 15-18Z] THAT COULD LEAD TO MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
2000-3000 FEET. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE IT A
PREVAILING GROUP-MAINTAINED TEMPOS FOR THESE TIME PERIODS. WINDS
LOOK TO STAY AROUND 10-14KTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF
THROUGH THE DAY/EARLY EVENING TONIGHT.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FISHER
AVIATION...MCD
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