507
FXUS63 KIWX 110630
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
230 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS SOUTH OF US 30 TODAY.
- LESS HUMID AND AND DRY ON SUNDAY.
- DRY AND TRENDING WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
80S TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY
THIS WEEKEND AS A SLOW MOVING, CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
IMPULSE, BYPASSES OFF TO THE SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF A SUBTLE
CONVERGENCE ZONE SAGGING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF IL/IN/OH
TODAY. WITH THAT SAID, WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT SOUTH OF US 30 TODAY IN AN AREA OF WEAK DEFORMATION
AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.
A PATTERN SHIFT BACK TO JULY HEAT REMAINS THE FOCUS INTO NEXT WEEK
AS AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND CAPPED THETA-E AXIS FOLDS EAST
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LUCKILY THE
MORE FOCUSED MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD REMAIN SHUNTED OFF THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES FROM GETTING OUT OF CONTROL LIKE OUR
PREVIOUS HEAT WAVE. STILL EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH PEAK PM HEAT INDICES MID 90S TO NEAR
100F.
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE ON BLOCKING BREAKING DOWN AND RETROGRADING
WESTWARD LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH COULD BRING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION BACK INTO THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TO
FESTER SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS NEAR A WEAK FRONT TODAY. KFWA
APPEARS TO BE CLOSE TO ENOUGH TO THIS BOUNDARY FOR A PERIOD OF
MVFR TO LOW VFR RESTRICTIONS LATER THIS MORNING. VFR OTHERWISE
AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW INROADS INTO NORTHERN IN
THIS WEEKEND.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL
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