929
FXUS63 KIWX 261833
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
233 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 70S,
TO MIDDLE 80S. LITTLE DAY TO DAY TEMPERATURE VARIATION THEN
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN MID-
UPPER 70S.
- LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AM (20-40%, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US ROUTE 24).
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ALSO POSSIBLE FAR NORTHEAST
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED ACROSS OKLAHOMA. AN ELONGATED WEST-EAST ORIENTED VORT MAX
EXTENDS EAST OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHERN
INDIANA. THIS WEST-EAST VORT MAX IS ALIGNED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHEAR ZONE THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING A WARM-FRONTAL TYPE
FEATURE ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA WHICH WILL ATTEMPT TO MAKE SOME
NORTHWARD PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING. NEAR TERM
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT PROGS INDICATE THAT STRONGER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT REMAINS SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, GRADUALLY WEAKENING
THROUGH TIME ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA. THIS VORT MAX WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES ACROSS
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION DUE TO POSITIONING OF THE NORTHERN
LATITUDE LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGING WHICH SHOULD TEND TO CONTINUE TO
SHEAR THIS DISTURBANCE. GIVEN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP, A FAIRLY
SHARP SOUTH TO NORTH CUT-OFF IN RAIN CHANCES STILL APPEARS TO
BE IN ORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GREATEST
RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF US ROUTE 24. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH GIVEN WEAK MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DIURNALLY UNFAVORED TIMING, THIS POTENTIAL
SEEMS LIMITED (15-20 PERCENT THUNDER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH).
SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR WEDNESDAY WILL NOT BE ALL THAT STRONG GIVEN
SLOWING/WEAKENING AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE
SOUTH AND A NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE STILL LIKELY DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM SHOULD BE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF US ROUTE 24. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING,
SOME WEAK POOLING OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME INCREASE IN
UPPER FORCING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE COULD LEAD TO
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS FAR NE IN/FAR NW OH/SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWER MI. OTHERWISE, WEDNESDAY SHOULD FEATURE WARM
CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHEST MAX TEMPS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA SLIGHTLY DISPLACED FROM THICKER CLOUD
COVER AND INFLUENCE FROM ISOLATED-SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. GIVEN
WEAKNESS OF THE GRADIENT, SOME WEAK LAKE BREEZE WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALTHOUGH WOULD SUSPECT EVEN LAKESHORE AREAS COULD MAKE A
RUN AT 80 BEFORE TURNING SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON IF A
LAKE BREEZE IS ABLE TO FORM.
AN OVERALL UNEVENTFUL FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SETTLES ACROSS
THE AREA AND LONGWAVE PATTERN EXPERIENCES BLOCKING NATURE WITH
CENTRAL CONUS RIDGING LODGED BETWEEN WEST/EAST LONGWAVE TROUGHS. THE
POSITION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOCAL AREA TO BE
ON SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF EASTERN GREAT LAKES LOW LEVEL THERMAL
TROUGHING WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES GIVEN PERSISTENT NORTH/NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW.
SOME INDICATIONS IN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT SOME
RETROGRESSION OF THIS BLOCKED PATTERN COULD ALLOW STRONGER UPPER
VORT TO SHIFT WEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES IN THE MON-
WED TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED
GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST THROUGH THIS VALID PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN INDIANA REMAINS LARGELY IN CONTROL OF
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE CAST
OVER BOTH SITES THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER-
LEVEL DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
-SHRA AT KFWA, BUT A STOUT MID-LEVEL DRY LAYER AND
MEAGER/DISJOINTED FORCING MAY PRECLUDE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
WIND AT OR BELOW 5KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD THANKS TO HIGH
PRESSURE. OPTED TO REMOVE 6SM BR FROM KFWA DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS
AND A WEAKER INVERSION THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM CDT
WEDNESDAY FOR INZ103-203.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MARSILI
AVIATION...BROWN
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