979
FXUS63 KIWX 262302
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
702 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ENJOYABLE WEATHER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS US DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80'S.
- A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO OVERNIGHT
WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- A WARMING TREND WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BRINGING
A WARM END TO THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024
CONTINUED DRY, STABLE AND MAINLY SUNNY INTO SATURDAY WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE TIED TO A NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS UPPER RIDGE FOLDING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SATURDAY WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER WHEN
COMPARED TO TODAY AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS
MORE TOWARD THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND APPALACHIANS.
CLOSED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ARKLATEX DOES FINALLY OPEN NORTHEAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AN IMPRESSIVE SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 1.75 TO 2
INCHES. THE LEADING EDGE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY COULD STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE AREA ON SUNDAY HOWEVER GIVEN DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
AND IMPACTS FROM THE NARROWING GREAT LAKES RIDGE. LOW-MID LEVEL
FLOW IS ALSO WEAK WITH THE PRIMARILY INSTABILITY GRADIENT WEST
TOWARD THE MS RIVER. HELD WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS SUNDAY PM AS A
RESULT.
A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ARRIVES LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS THE THE UPSTREAM THETA-E RIDGE FOLDS IN
UNDER PERTURBED WESTERLIES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MONDAY NIGHT
PERIOD FOR A POSSIBLE FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ON THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 PM EDT FRI JUL 26 2024
A LARGE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO HELP TO GUARANTEE ANOTHER TAF
CYCLE OF VFR CONDITIONS. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH-ALTITUDE SMOKE, A
WANING CU AND STRATOCU FIELD WILL BE ABOUT THE ONLY CLOUDS
DURING THIS PERIOD.
IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IN...NONE.
OH...NONE.
MI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...SKIPPER
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