036  
FXUS63 KARX 250732  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
230 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2023  
   
DISCUSSION
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2023  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SOME THREAT FOR SNOW SUNDAY, BUT HIGHER CHANCES FARTHER TO THE  
SOUTH.  
 
- SEASONABLY TO COOL START TO NEW WEEK. PERIODIC PCPN CHANCES WITH  
MORE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME.  
 
* SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY? MAYBE...BUT MOSTLY CONFINED IN THE FAR SOUTH.  
 
A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY, MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST TO ACROSS THE MID  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z SUNDAY. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTIVE  
SIGNAL WITH THE SHORTWAVE, BUT A LITTLE BETTER FGEN SIGNATURE, WITH  
DECENT WEST-EAST RUNNING 600:700 FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTHEAST OF  
SHORTWAVE. IT'S VERY NARROW AND QUICK MOVING AND THE SHORT TERM AND  
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ALL PRODUCE A NARROW STRIP OF PCPN...EITHER  
RAIN OR SNOW, DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM/LOCATION. FEATURES  
LIKE THIS CAN LAY DOWN A QUICK 1 TO 3" OF SNOW. FERRETING OUT WHERE  
THIS WILL TRACK IS THE CONUNDRUM WITH SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE MODELS  
HAVING DIFFERENT OPINIONS. ON THE WHOLE THOUGH, THERE IS A BIT MORE  
CONSENSUS ON KEEPING THIS SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA,  
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE LATEST RAP/HRRR. THE NAM IS THE FARTHER NORTH  
MODEL WITH THE FEATURE AND COULD BE AN OUTLIER. WITH THIS IN MIND,  
AND PER COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA  
"DRY" FOR NOW.  
 
* SEASONABLE-COOL START TO NEW WEEK: PERIODIC PCPN CHANCES,  
HIGHLIGHTING THE THU-FRI PERIOD  
 
COOLER, CANADIAN AIR FLOWS ACROSS THE REGION POST THE DEPARTING  
STORM SYSTEM TODAY, AND HANGS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE  
PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. GFS/EC 850 MB TEMPS HOVER MOSTLY AROUND  
-4 TO -6 C. HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED, GENERALLY AT OR BELOW THE  
LATE MARCH NORMALS. SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP IN TEMPS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW  
KICKS IN AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THU/FRI.  
 
AS FOR THAT STORM SYSTEM, THE GFS AND EC BOTH ARE KEEN ON DRIVING AN  
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THU-FRI. INITIALLY,  
WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PCPN WOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, THEN WETTING  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/SFC LOW. TIMING/TRACK OF THE VARIOUS  
FEATURES VARY BETWEEN THE MODELS, AND WITHIN THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS,  
BUT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOMES ALL SUGGEST A GOOD SHOT FOR PCPN.  
TEMP PROFILES FAVOR MAINLY RAIN, BUT COULDN'T RULE OUT SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. ANY RELATED SNOWFALL DOES  
NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT (LOCALLY) AT THIS TIME.  
 
THERE COULD BE A FEW, MORE MINOR LEANING CHANCES BEFORE THIS SYSTEM,  
BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023  
 
WINDS BACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS TO THE SE EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ILLINOIS.  
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT VFR  
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT RST/LSE. LATER TODAY, WINDS BACK TO THE  
NW AS A WEAK SYSTEM DROPS SE ACROSS MN. A MID- LEVEL BROKEN CEILING  
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO RST BY LATE AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A SMALL  
CHANCE (30%) FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  
 

 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...RIECK  
AVIATION.....JAW  
 
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