578
FXUS63 KARX 131935
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
135 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- AN INTERMITTENT STRETCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW BEGINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSISTS POSSIBLY AS LATE AS SUNDAY,
WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERIODIC TRAVEL IMPACTS. TOTAL SNOW
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES OVER THE COURSE OF THE 2 DAYS IS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY (50-70% CHANCE) WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW
COMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
- AFTER REACHING NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY, TEMPERATURES SLIDE
BACK TO AROUND AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORNING WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT: SCATTERED SHOWERS, COOLING OFF
THE COMBINATION OF CLEARING SKIES, MINIMAL SNOWPACK, AND AMPLE
MIXING PUSHED TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO RECORD TERRITORY FOR
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. STRATUS CLOUDS
SWEEPING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL PUT AN END TO THE DAYTIME
HEATING OVER THE COURSE OF THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON, WITH A
COLD FRONT RACING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA SENDING TEMPERATURES
FALLING THIS EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH
THE INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION, RESULTING IN THE FORMATION OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, TRANSITIONING TO
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. OVERALL IMPACTS FROM THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE LOW. BLUSTERY WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH OVERNIGHT BEFORE DECREASING BY
MORNING. BY SUNRISE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE TEENS,
A SOLID 20 DEGREES COLDER THAN WHERE WE STARTED THIS MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY: INTERMITTENT SNOW
LONGWAVE RIDGING AMPLIFYING INTO AN OMEGA BLOCK ALONG THE WEST
COAST WILL FORCE A PV LOBE TO DROP SSE FROM NORTHWESTERN CANADA
AND SETTLE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS THE EASTERN POST OF
THIS BLOCK. THE END RESULT WILL BE PERIODIC BOUTS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW OVER THE COURSE OF SEVERAL DAYS. THERE ARE TWO
WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR "HIGHER" SNOW RATES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS ATTENDANT WITH TWO REGIONS OF LOW TO MID-
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON PERIOD WILL HAVE
BETTER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THUS THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
ARE DEPICTING AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH NOT
MUCH FOR ENSEMBLE SPREAD. THIS MAY RESULT IN IMPACTS TO THE
EVENING COMMUTE AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS OVER THE COMING
DAYS WITH THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE.
FRIDAY MORNING COULD SEE A LULL IN THE SNOW BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND WAVE OF
FRONTOGENESIS WILL BE TRANSIENT IN NATURE AND SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK
TO BE LIGHT, BUT INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DEEPER
MIXING--NOTABLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE THE EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX VALUES ARE PUSHING 0.6 TO 0.8--COULD STILL LEAD
TO IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO
LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING FRIDAY BEFORE CLEARING OUT SATURDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER WE SEE MORE SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY IS DEPENDENT ON WHETHER ANOTHER PV LOBE CAN SCRAPE
DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH, A SOLUTION THAT STILL HAS
LOWER PROBABILITIES (20-30%), BUT THESE ARE IN THE INCREASE.
OVERALL FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THE 2-3 DAY PERIOD DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE MUCH AND FRONT-LOADED ON THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON-
NIGHT PERIOD. MOST LOCALES LOOK TO SEE 2-4 INCHES FOR SNOW
BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY, WITH 1-3 INCHES COMING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ON THURSDAY.
COLD WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHEN THE SNOW ENDS OVER THE WEEKEND
IS ON THE LOWER SIDE, PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES ARE A CERTAINTY.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE REACHED DURING THE MORNING/MIDDAY WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON SATURDAY
FALL 15 TO 20 DEGREES COMPARED TO FRIDAY, STRUGGLING TO REACH
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS THROUGH TUESDAY. EXACTLY HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHES. ROUGHLY 10
PERCENT OF THE NBM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES OF -10
TO -20 FOR SUNDAY MORNING, A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO GIVEN THE FRESH
SNOWFALL AND CLEARING SKIES. A SIMILAR SETUP COULD PLAY OUT
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND A CLIPPER SYSTEM (A SOLUTION MORE FAVORED BY
THE EC ENSEMBLES AT THIS TIME).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THIS AFTERNOON THEN A MVFR STRATUS DECK
MOVES DOWN THROUGH THE AREA COVERING THE REGION IN MVFR CIGS
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. WINDS CONTINUE
TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL PICK UP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD UNTIL MID
MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTHWEST START TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE (10 TO 20%) OF SOME RAIN SHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HAVE NOT INCLUDED THIS IN THE KLSE TAF
DUE TO THE LOW CHANCE BUT IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...CECAVA
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