468
FXUS63 KARX 101954
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
154 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. LITTLE, IF ANY, SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
TONIGHT
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. DURING THE EVENING, THE
900-850 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE BETWEEN 7-9 C/KM AND THEN THEY
DECREASE BELOW 7 C/KM OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THESE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING AND FLURRIES OVERNIGHT.
LITTLE, IF ANY, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
AS TYPICAL WITH THE NBM, BOTH THE WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WERE ON
THE LOW SIDE, SO WENT WITH A 50-50 BLEND OF THE NBM AND THE NBM
90TH PERCENTILE TO INCREASE THEM CLOSER TO WHAT WOULD BE SEEN
OFF THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BUILD SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME, THERE WILL BE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE SATURATION ISSUES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.
HOWEVER, WITH TIME, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH SATURATION FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG AND BEHIND THIS FRONT. LITTLE, IF
ANY, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
THE STORM TRACK WILL SET UP DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. DUE TO THIS
UNCERTAINTY STAYED WITH NBM PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES. BESIDES
IMPACTING THE PRECIPITATION, IT WILL ALSO IMPACT TEMPERATURES
TOO. LIKE THE PRECIPITATION, STAYED WITH THE NBM FOR
TEMPERATURES TOO.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER PAST MIDNIGHT THEN DIMINISH BETWEEN 09
AND 12Z. MVFR CIGS MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH THE SNOW AND LINGER
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR UP BY LATE
MORNING. NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH. WINDS DECREASE
TO 10 TO 15MPH BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
REMAIN MOSTLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
WITH THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE, BUT
IF SNOW RATES INCREASE OR THE WIND BLOWS THE FALLING SNOW AROUND,
LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...CECAVA
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