020
FXUS63 KARX 280634
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1234 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE (60-80%) IN NARROW 2" TO 4" BAND OF
SNOW FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHEAST IOWA AND
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH TODAY. INITIAL, LIGHTER
SNOWFALL BAND GRAZES NORTHEAST IOWA COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING AS SUBSEQUENT, INCREASED SNOWFALL RATES SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH TAKE SHAPE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
- SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOWFALL EXPECTED NORTH AND SOUTH OF NARROW
BAND. CONFIDENCE IN EXTREME OUTLIERS OF 6"+ WITHIN THIS NARROW
BAND REMAINS LOW (30%) AS 1" TO 2" SNOWFALL RATES COULD
TRANSIENTLY OCCUR.
- COLDER END TO THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
SNOWFALL TIMING TODAY:
A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL PROGRESSING EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND EXITING THIS EVENING
REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE,
RADAR, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT NARROW BAND OF LIGHTER
SNOWFALL PROGRESSING EAST OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA - MINNESOTA
BORDER. THIS INITIAL BAND EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. SUBSEQUENT HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN WILL TAKE SHAPE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
RESPONSIBLE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND IS THEORETICALLY
SETTING UP OVER THE NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER THIS MORNING,
SLIGHTLY NORTH OF SLIGHTLY AMBIGUOUS SURFACE CYCLONIC ROTATION
IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL BAND LOCATION:
FORTUNATELY, HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL CONSENSUS ON EXACT LOCATION
OF FRONTOGENESIS AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL HAS IMPROVED OVER THE
LAST FEW RUNS. PREVIOUS OUTLYING HRRR FORECAST MODEL EXHIBITED
A SIGNIFICANT SHUNT SOUTHWEST BETWEEN THE 18Z AND 00Z RUNS,
ADVECTING 0.1" OF 6-HOUR QPF FORECASTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FROM
THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR IN JACKSON COUNTY, WISCONSIN TO THE
INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR IN OLMSTED COUNTY, MINNESOTA. THEREFORE,
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR LOCATION OF HIGHER SNOWFALL BAND OF
2" TO 4" PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA FLIRTING FAR
NORTHEAST IOWA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
VARIABILITY IN EXACT LOCATION OF NARROW AND RELATIVELY
TRANSIENT FRONTOGENESIS BAND PROVIDING HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES
CAUSES SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES REGARDING SHARP CUTOFF BETWEEN
SNOW AND NO SNOW. FURTHERMORE, POTENTIAL COLLOCATION WITH 5K -
10K FT DGZ THICKNESSES FLIRTING SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH CONTINUE
FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR POTENTIAL OUTLYING EXTREME VALUES
WITHIN THIS BAND.
OTHERWISE, MAIN FORECAST CHANGE WAS SLIGHT EXTENSION IN
PREEXISTING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST LINGERING SNOWFALL THROUGH THIS
EVENING PRIMARILY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEFORE FORCING FULLY
EXITS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE OVERALL CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED, AN AFD UPDATE IS LIKELY THIS MORNING AS THE CENTER OF
CYCLONIC FLOW FURTHER TAKES SHAPE AND SUBSEQUENT SNOW BANDS SET
UP. UPGRADES TO WARNINGS MAY STILL BE WARRANTED GIVEN FORECAST
CHALLENGE REGARDING POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
COLDER SUNDAY, MIXED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE PROGRESSES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 20S AREA WIDE. WHILE WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK, STRONGER RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN
WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, KEEPING OVERALL CONFIDENCE
LOWER (30-50%) WITH A QUASI-ZONAL PATTERN AND LOW LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE.
LARGEST CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS IS INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. A STRONGER SOLUTION TO THE MID LEVEL SYNOPTIC
CYCLONE EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO START
THE WEEK NEARLY DOUBLED NBM POPS OVER PREVIOUS RUN, NOW GRAZING
80% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY, ENSEMBLE (27.12Z) SOUNDING PLUMES SUGGEST ALL
TYPES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN WARM, MOIST OFF
LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT TIMING PROVIDING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING. GIVEN THE LONGER
FORECAST HOUR AND NEAR FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES, MANY
DETAILS IN COMING FORECAST PACKAGES WILL REQUIRE IRONING OUT AS
THE SYSTEM EVOLVES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
CONFIDENCE IN AREA OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES AFFECTING BOTH TAF
SITES (KRST & KLSE) THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON HAS
INCREASED (60%). THEREFORE, HAVE ADDED FM GROUP OF IFR
VISIBILITIES DURING TIMING OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE. SHIFTS IN BAND
ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND GIVEN THE NARROW NATURE OF HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL, IFR VISIBILITIES MAY LIE JUST NORTH OR SOUTH OF EITHER
TAF SITE. OVERALL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FROM 2" TO 4" EXPECTED
WITHIN THIS NARROW BAND WITH 6"+ PLUS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS AND
SHARP CUTOFFS NORTH AND SOUTH.
WHILE IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL EXIT EAST THROUGH THE EVENING, MVFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE 27.06Z TAF
PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
WIZ032>034-041>044-053>055.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST SATURDAY FOR
IAZ009>011.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...JAR
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