950  
FXUS63 KARX 070728  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
228 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
50S TO MIDDLE TO 60S. THEN TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S BY  
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.  
 
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
TUESDAY. THEN MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025  
 
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT  
 
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM  
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE  
THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.  
SUBSIDENCE UNDER SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT  
WINDS (LESS THAN 10 MILES PER HOUR) AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL AS LATEST  
NAEFS SUGGEST STANDARD ANOMALIES OF MINUS 2 TO MINUS 4 DEGREE  
CELSIUS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE  
UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.  
 
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT  
 
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS EAST OF THE AREA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS  
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH  
MOVES INTO NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE LATEST 07.00Z  
GFS/ECMWF/NAM SHOW DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH. THE AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS OVER WEST CENTRAL  
WISCONSIN/EASTERN PART OF MINNESOTA AND THE FAR NORTHWEST PORTIONS  
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THIS AXIS MONDAY  
EVENING. AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES EAST THIS MOISTURE AXIS  
WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND SPREAD CONVECTION INTO THE  
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. FORCING/VERTICAL MOTION...MOISTURE CONVERGENCE  
WANES ACROSS FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH  
DURING THE DAY. CAPE IS LIMITED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AS  
SUGGEST 0-6KM MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 100-200 J/KG OVER THE  
NORTHWEST/WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF  
INSTABILITY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY EVENING INTO  
TUESDAY MORNING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE  
LIMITS...AS CAPE IS LIMITED BELOW 500 J/KG SURFACE/ELEVATED CAPE AND  
0-3KM SHEAR IS LESS THAN 20 KNOTS.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY  
 
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY  
THROUGH FRIDAY ON BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED  
STATES/NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THEN...THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES ARE IN  
DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND PLACEMENT OF  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS. SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
WILL PROVIDE MAINLY DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY  
THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER...AS WARMER AIR ALOFT  
ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. 07.00Z ECMWF/GFS INDICATE 925MB  
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO PLUS 15 TO PLUS 18 DEGREES CELSIUS BY 12Z  
FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND  
POSSIBLY IN THE LOW 80S AT FEW LOCATIONS LATE IN THE WEEK. WITH  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKING DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THERE IS  
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS MOVING INTO THE AREA.  
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...BASED ON HOW  
FAST THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND PLACEMENT OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS/LOWS  
OVER THE NORTHERN TIER UNITED STATES.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025  
 
MONITORING FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING  
AS T/TD DEPRESSIONS CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 0-2 DEGREES WITH  
LARGELY CALM WINDS. STRONGER 15-20 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE  
ARE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TO FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT ALREADY  
SEEING SOME POCKETS OF FOG REPORTED IN PARTS OF MN/IA. THINKING  
RST AND LSE SHOULD REMAIN VFR, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHES OF  
FOG OR SCATTERED LOW STRATUS THROUGH DAYBREAK.  
 
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY  
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING. SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS  
THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...DTJ  
AVIATION...KURZ  
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