911
FXUS63 KARX 040533
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1133 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT PRECIP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING
AND THURSDAY, MAINLY FLURRIES. HOWEVER, LOW POTENTIAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY PRESENT ITSELF DEPENDING ON EXACT
TEMPERATURE DETAILS.
- ABOVE FREEZING HIGHS LIKELY (50-95%) THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK DOWN FOR SATURDAY BUT THEN LIKELY (75%)
RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
OCCASIONAL VERY LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6
DAYS OF THE FORECAST WITH THE 02.00Z CMCE/GEFS MEANS SUGGESTING
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW MAY RETURN AFTER WEEKS OF ABSENCE NEXT MONDAY. AS
IS TYPICALLY THE CASE IN THIS FLOW PATTERN, OCCASIONAL DISTURBANCES
EJECTING OUT OF CANADA WOULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP
PROVIDED ENOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT.
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ONE OF THIS DISTURBANCES APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH
IT. PROGGED 03.15Z RAP AND 03.12Z HRRR SOUNDINGS DEPICT SHALLOW
MOISTURE WITH SOME SATURATION IN THE DGZ IN OUR NORTHWEST. THAT
SAID, FORCING FOR ASCENT APPEARS TO BE MARGINAL. HAVE THEREFORE
INTRODUCED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR FLURRIES. AS THE COLUMN
WARMS THROUGH THE MORNING, MOISTURE REDUCES DOES AS WELL AND
FLURRIES SHOULD END. HOWEVER, IF SATURATION IS MAINTAINED BEYOND MID-
MORNING, A RISK FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD PRESENT ITSELF. THIS RISK
IS LOW (<15%) BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
NEXT PRECIP POTENTIAL ARRIVES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD EARLY THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A
STRONGER WAVE EARLY FRIDAY. FOR EARLY THURSDAY, PROGGED SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT SATURATION WITH SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR
BUT, GIVEN CONSIDERABLE DRYNESS AROUND 700MB BEFORE THE WAVE
ARRIVES, DURATION LOOKS TO BE SHORT AND AMOUNTS LOW. NOT
SURPRISINGLY NBM POPS ARE ON THE LOW SIDE GIVEN THE LOW QPF BUT,
WITH 03.12Z HREF/REFS POINTING TOWARD A GOOD PORTION OF AREAS EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI HAVING A 50%+ CHANCE FOR PRECIP, HAVE BOOSTED
POPS TOWARD OTHER, HIGHER CONSENSUS BLENDS TO GET MORE LOCATIONS A
MENTION OF PRECIP. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE, GIVEN SATURATION AT THE DGZ
IN THE 550-700MB LAYER, SHOULD GET LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER, AS THE WAVE
DEPARTS, THIS LAYER DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY WHILE THE LOW LEVELS WARM
TO AROUND -5C AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RAMP UP. SHOULD THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN SATURATED AFTER MID-MORNING, FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD RESULT.
EXAMINING PROGGED SOUNDINGS, HOLDING ONTO ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME, SO HAVE KEPT ALL PRECIP MENTIONS
SNOW. MOVING AHEAD TO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO FOCUS FORCING JUST TO OUR EAST WITH CLARK/TAYLOR POTENTIALLY
SEEING A SHORT BURST OF SNOW. GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY, 850MB TEMPERATURES ALONG AND SOUTH/WEST OF I-94 MAY
(40-90% PER 03.00Z LREF) REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, SO COULD SEE SOME
RAIN OR A SHORT BIT OF FREEZING RAIN IF PRECIP DOES DEFY THE ODDS
(CURRENT CHANCE <15%) AND OCCURS THERE.
ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MURKY
AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY LIKELY (50-95%) LEAD TO HIGHS
ABOVE FREEZING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE TEENS AND 20S FOR A SHORT PERIOD.
HOWEVER, A SIGNAL FOR QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO RETURN IS SEEN
ACROSS LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES, FAVORING A RETURN TO TEMPERATURES ABOVE
NORMAL (AROUND 30 THIS TIME OF YEAR) STARTING SUNDAY. 03.13Z NBM
INTERQUARTILE RANGES FOR HIGHS AND LOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAIN
LARGE, AROUND 10 DEGREES, BUT THE 25TH PERCENTILE RISES ABOVE 30 FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, LENDING CONFIDENCE TOWARD AN ABOVE NORMAL EARLY
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
INCREASING SKY COVER THROUGH TODAY EVENTUALLY USHERS IN MVFR
PROBABILITIES LATER IN 04.06Z TAF PERIOD PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. SNOWFALL CHANCES PRIMARILY REMAIN IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN NEAR AND AFTER THE TERMINUS OF 04.06Z TAF PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...JAR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page