037
FXUS63 KARX 200516
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1216 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE
70S FOR MOST SOUTH OF I-94 BY TUESDAY.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY (60-85% CHANCE) FOR THURSDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS LOW
AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
TODAY - WEDNESDAY: DRY WITH A WARMING TREND
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME TODAY AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW BUILDS IN AIDING IN BRINGING A WARMER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT, HIGHS TODAY WILL TREND A BIT WARMER
WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS WE
HEAD INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PUSH INTO
THE LOCAL AREA FURTHER CEMENTING THIS WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA
WITH NBM INTER-QUARTILE SPREAD REACHING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE
70S. OVERALL WITH FAIRLY ROBUST SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH BOTH THIS
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A MINIMUM.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY: SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING
THE PATTERN THEN CHANGES A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY WITH A
FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY WITH A RAPIDLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AS A RESULT, MOST OF GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES ON PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR THURSDAY. CURRENTLY,
BOTH SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE
GEFS/GEPS ONLY HAVING 20-40% PROBABILITIES FOR OVER 1000 J/KG SBCAPE
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WITH INITIATION LIKELY OCCURRING
WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ONLY BEING AROUND 25
KTS IN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS, WOULD EXPECT A LINEAR PROGRESSION
INTO THE AREA ALONG THE FRONT WITH MINIMAL INSTABILITY KEEPING
UPDRAFTS FAIRLY WEAK. AS A RESULT, CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS NOT OVERLY HIGH, HOWEVER STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THE ML/AI GUIDANCE PAINTING SOME 15% PROBS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE YOU MIGHT HAVE A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLY
ORIENTED 0-3KM SHEAR VECTOR AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER INSTABILITY
EARLIER IN THE EVENING. REGARDLESS, WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD MAKE THEIR WAY IN FOR FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY BEING IN THE 50S TO 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TERMINALS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE WISCONSIN AND YELLOW RIVERS WHERE THE
RIVER STAGE IS IN MINOR FLOOD AT BOTH NECEDAH, WI AND MUSCODA, WI.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY MID-WEEK WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FLOOD WATCH AT
MCGREGOR ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS UPSTREAM
FLOW IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER HAS TRENDED LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, AS A RESULT THIS SITE WILL LIKELY NOT REACH INTO FLOOD
STAGE.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...BARENDSE
HYDROLOGY...NAYLOR
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