087
FXUS63 KARX 271130
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
SUBZERO WIND CHILLS VALUES. COLDEST TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
REQUIRING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THURSDAY (30-50%) AND FRIDAY
(50-70%) MORNINGS.
- FLURRIES RETREAT NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN
LATER THIS MORNING WITH -10 TO -20F MORNING WIND CHILLS SLOWLY
IMPROVING TO -5 TO -10F THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
FLURRIES TODAY WITH APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF -10F TO -20F:
WHILE /SLIGHTLY/ WARMER, SIMILAR FORECAST EXPECTED FOR TODAY AS
MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERSISTENT INCREASED
SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA CAUSING WIND CHILLS OF
-10F TO -20F. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94, KEEPING HIGHER FLURRY PROBABILITIES
(50-70%) LOCALLY IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED, POTENTIAL TAPPING AND ADVECTING OF LAKE SUPERIOR
MOISTURE COULD GRAZE NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTY.
CONSISTENT COLD INTO THE WEEKEND:
MAIN FORECAST IMPACT THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WILL BE
PERSISTENT, ANOMALOUS COLD WITH HIGH (70-100%) LREF (27.00Z) AND
NBM (27.01Z) CONFIDENCE FOR SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES STICKING AROUND UNTIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FORTUNATELY, THERE IS A WARMER LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL
WITH HIGH LREF CONFIDENCE FOR EXIT OF THE THE ANOMALOUS COLD
CURRENTLY STUCK IN CYCLONIC FLOW OVER HUDSON BAY BEING
EVENTUALLY ESTRANGED FROM ITS POLAR SOURCE BY A 99TH PERCENTILE
RIDGE APPENDAGE, TIED TO THE AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC WEST COAST,
THAT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH, WHILE LREF (27.00Z) MEMBERS (GEPS/GEFS/EPS)
ALL EXHIBIT A WEAKENING TREND TO THE RIDGE AS IT SAGS SOUTH,
SOME INTER-ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN INTENSITY LEAVES DIFFERENCES FOR
SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COLDEST TEMPERATURES CAUSING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY POTENTIAL:
COLDEST APPARENT TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY REACHING COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA (<-25F) INITIALLY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY MORNING (30%-50%) AND AGAIN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY MORNING (50%-70%). INITIAL INTER AND INTRA-ENSEMBLE
MEMBER DIFFERENCES IN LOW LEVEL AND 2 METER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING STEM FROM AREAL SPREAD
IN SOUTHERN EXTENT OF OPEN WAVE APPENDAGE SWINGING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. COLDEST 850MB TEMPERATURES SEEN IN
THE GEPS WITH A 25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD FROM -19C TO -24C
AT 850 MB WHILE THE EPS SHOWS HIGHER INTRA-MEMBER AGREEMENT FOR
A WARMER SOLUTION FROM -6C TO -18C. UNFORTUNATELY, INTER-
ENSEMBLE TRENDS HAVE ALL COOLED ACCOMPANYING 2 METER
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE
EPS (27.00F) 2F TO -14F 75TH TO 25TH PERCENTILE SPREAD NOW
ALIGNING CLOSER TO THE COLDEST GEPS 4F TO -16F SPREAD.
SUBSEQUENT COLDEST TEMPERATURES STEMS FROM FINAL SLUG OF 5TH
PERCENTILE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. INTER-ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES
IN WESTERN EXTENT OF COLDEST LOW LEVEL AIR CAUSE DISCREPANCIES
FOR 2 METER TEMPERATURES AS THE GEPS AND EPS AGAIN COOLED A
COUPLE DEGREES IN THE MOST RECENT RUNS, CAUSING A BUMP IN
CONFIDENCE FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA AREA WIDE IN THE
GEPS (70-100%) AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 IN THE EPS (65-85%).
ULTIMATELY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNINGS WILL REQUIRE FURTHER
DETAILED INVESTIGATION IN COMING FORECASTS AS CLIMATOLOGICALLY
WINDIER SPOTS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAY ALSO POTENTIALLY
BE CLOSER TO THE CORE OF PLUME OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR DIVING
SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
REGARDLESS, 100% CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW ZERO 2 METER MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES EXIT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA IN A FLASH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON (FINALLY).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
PATCHES OF MVFR CEILINGS FLOAT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF
THESE CEILINGS IS ON THE LOW SIDE (20-30%) AND MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS OF
15-25G20-30KTS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AND
BACK TO THE WEST AT 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...SKOW
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