100
FXUS63 KARX 141110
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
510 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS LIGHT SNOW BEGINNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO FRIDAY. THE BULK OF ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WHERE 1-3" OF SNOW
IS FAVORED IN SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI. SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. MORNING
WIND CHILLS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WILL LIKELY BE IN THE TEENS
TO 20S BELOW ZERO.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES (20-40%) ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
TODAY: A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
GOES-19 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 14.06Z RAP 500MB HEIGHTS DEPICT
THE LOCAL AREA IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL GENERALLY BE THE NAME OF THE GAME FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE AS WE SAY GOODBYE TO THE WARMER AIRMASS THAT WAS IN PLACE
FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COLDER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING WITH THE 14.00Z HREF
KEEPING DECENT PROBABILITIES (40-70% CHANCE) FOR WIND GUSTS OVER
30 MPH SOUTH OF I-90. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL DIMINISH FURTHER BY
NOON.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY: CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF SNOW
AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY, THE KEY FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE A FAIRLY
COMPLEX CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR THIS
FEATURES AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH A TRAILING SURFACE LOW IN
WESTERN ONTARIO TO THE NORTH. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION FROM THE WEST WILL
ESTABLISH A NARROW LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE AS SHOWN IN THE
14.03Z RAP. CONSEQUENTLY, MUCH OF THE CAMS DEVELOP A QUICK MOVING
BAND OF SNOW THAT PUSHES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA DURING APPROXIMATELY THE NOON TO 6PM TIMEFRAME. OVERALL
WOULD EXPECT AMOUNTS WITH THIS INITIAL PUSH OF SNOW TO BE UNDER AN
INCH AS THE 04.00Z HREF ONLY HAS MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (30-60% CHANCE)
FOR AMOUNTS OVER 0.5" THROUGH 6PM ON THURSDAY ASSUMING A 13-15:1
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIO. AFTER THIS INITIAL FORCING DEPARTS, RAP/HRRR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOSS OF SATURATION IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DURING THE EVENING WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THAT A
TRANSITION TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE
CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC LOW PUSH INTO NORTHERN WI
WHICH WILL AID IN COOLING THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT AND SWITCHING US
BACK TO SNOW WITH THE BETTER FORCING BEING FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHERE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS HIGHER FORECAST
AMOUNTS.
AS THIS SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEPART EAST, WE MAY OBSERVE A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT FEATURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO WATCH BEING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING TOWARDS THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE THINGS TO NOTE WITH THIS
WILL BE AN INCREASE IN WINDS WITH A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG WITH THE COLD ADVECTION MOVING IN WITH THE FRONT
ALLOWING FOR BETTER MOMENT TRANSFER OF AROUND 30-35 KTS OFF THE
DECK TO THE SURFACE. AS A RESULT, THE EC ENSEMBLE HAS FAIRLY STRONG
PROBABILITIES (40-90% CHANCE) FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONSEQUENTLY,
DEPENDING ON EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY, THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. FURTHERMORE, LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE FRONT STEEPEN TO AROUND 7-8.5 C/KM IN
THE 14.06Z NAM WHICH WILL BE COUPLED WITH SOME MARGINAL LOW-
LEVEL INSTABILITY (AROUND 10-30 J/KG OF 0-3KM CAPE). WHEN THE
LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES INTO
THIS ENVIRONMENT, COULD SEE SOME INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT MAY QUICKLY LOWER VISIBILITY WHEN COUPLED
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SNOW
SQUALL PARAMETER IN THE NAM DOES HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MN AND NORTHEAST IA DURING THIS PERIOD. THAT SAID, THE MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SNOW SQUALLS WOULD SEEM TO BE
WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA IN THE NAM WHERE THE DEPTH OF
THE UNSTABLE LAYER IN THE LOW-LEVELS IS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE, AS
OPPOSED TO IN OUR LOCAL AREA WHERE THE MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WOULD WORK TO HINDER SNOWFALL RATES WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOP.
IN ANY CASE, SEEMS LIKE A COMPLICATED LITTLE SYSTEM THAT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD WITH VARIOUS PARTS TO IT. OVERALL, NOT
EXPECT OVERLY IMPACTFUL SNOW AMOUNTS AS THE RECENT NBM PROBABILITIES
FOR OVER 3 INCHES ARE FAIRLY LOW (10-20% CHANCE) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND WEST-CENTRAL WI AT THIS POINT.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE INCREASING WINDS ON FRIDAY COMBINED WITH THE
NEW SNOW, THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ON FRIDAY
WITH ANY BLOWING AND DRIFTING THAT DOES OCCUR.
THIS WEEKEND & EARLY NEXT WEEK: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
OCCASIONAL SNOW CHANCES
BY THE TIME THE WEEKEND ROLLS AROUND, SHARP COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HAS SWEPT INTO THE REGION, USHERING IN
FAIRLY COLD AIRMASS WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND THE -20C MARK
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONSEQUENTLY, TEMPERATURES RESPOND
ACCORDINGLY WITH THE INTER-QUARTILE RANGE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO UPPER TEENS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WITHIN THE NBM INTER-QUARTILE RANGE FROM THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO INTO SUNDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SUNDAY ROLLS AROUND, FLOW TURNS TO THE WEST WHICH
MAY "WARM" US UP A FEW DEGREES, PRIMARILY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE TEENS WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE NBM
TRYING TO SNEAK IN SOME LOWER TO MID-20S. THIS WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED THOUGH AS A SHORTWAVE WILL SNEAK ACROSS NORTHERN WI WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED TO THE SOUTH USHERING IN REINFORCING COLD
AIR INTO THE REGION. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY
AGREE ON KEEPING THIS AIRMASS ENTRENCHED IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THUS EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COLD TO START THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONCERNED, OUTSIDE OF SOME
LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE INITIAL COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY,
THE MAIN CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SNOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND SFC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY.
CURRENTLY, ACCUMULATIONS WOULD LIKELY BE ON THE LOW END AT THIS
POINT AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS GENERALLY AROUND 0.25" OR LESS IN
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE LIMITED MOISTURE. AS A RESULT,
THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) HAS MEDIUM
PROBABILITIES (40-60%) FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL BUT LOW PROBABILITIES
(10-20%) FOR AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR GREATER AS THIS FRONT WORKS
THROUGH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS WINDS
HAVE SLIGHTLY OVERACHIEVED FORECAST OVERNIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY, HAVE
OPTED TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, GENERALLY FALLING BELLOW 10 KTS AFTER 00Z
WHILE STAYING FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. SOME BKN MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z TO 14Z, PRIMARILY AT KRST. ADDITIONALLY,
FLURRIES WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE MORNING,
HOWEVER THESE WILL NOT POSE ANY IMPACT TO VSBYS OR CIGS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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