194
FXUS63 KARX 150031
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
731 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN A NEAR CERTAINTY (90-100%) THURSDAY BUT NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED.
- STRONG NORTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY
WITH DECENT POTENTIAL (40-60%) FOR A 45 MPH WIND GUST.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES (MID-20S TO MID-30S) EXPECTED
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS MAY BRING AN END TO THE GROWING SEASON
FOR SOME, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF AN OSSEO-SPARTA-WISCONSIN
RAPIDS ARC (60-85% CHANCE TO FALL BELOW 28).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
RAIN THURSDAY
17Z WV SATELLITE SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS, A PLUME
OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND AN
UPPER TROUGH ADVANCING SOUTHEAST OVER ALBERTA. AT THE SURFACE, WHILE
THE REGION IS POST-FRONTAL IT IS NOT DEVOID OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE,
AS EVIDENCED BY EXTENSIVE STRATUS.
FOR THURSDAY, MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL ADVECT OVER THE REGION.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN IN PLACE,
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RAIN AS FORCING FOR ASCENT OCCURS BOTH WITH A
LEAD SHORTWAVE DURING THE MORNING AND WIDESPREAD QG ASCENT OCCURS AS
THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER LOW AND ALBERTA TROUGH PHASE INTO ONE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR RAIN ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY,
BEST 700/850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA. INDEED, 14.12Z HREF AND REFS MAXIMUM QPF VALUES
ARE UNDER 2" AND PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEANS ARE AROUND 0.75-1" ACROSS
THE ENTIRE RAIN PERIOD. THEREFORE, AM NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS FROM
THIS RAINFALL.
POTENTIALLY WINDY FRIDAY
FRIDAY, IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY'S UPPER TROUGH, RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT PRESENT
AND 35-40 KT WINDS AT 850/925MB, EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED DOWN THE ROAD AS 14.13Z NBM DAILY
MAX GUST PROBABILITIES AT THE RST/LSE AIRPORTS ARE 55-60% TO MEET OR
EXCEED 45 MPH.
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL SATURDAY MORNING
SETUP FOR TUMBLING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH BECOMING CENTERED IN KANSAS.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS HIGH LOOKS TO EXTEND NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. WITH SKIES
CLEARING AS LARGE SCALE DESCENT OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH, EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
RESULT. TEMPERATURES ARE HIGHLY LIKELY (85-100%) TO DROP TO LEVELS
SUPPORTING FROST, LIKELY (55-100%) TO DIP BELOW FREEZING, AND
POTENTIALLY BELOW 28 FOR A KILLING FREEZE, ESPECIALLY (60-85%) ALONG
AND NORTH OF AN OSSEO-SPARTA-WISCONSIN RAPIDS ARC.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE REMAINED OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AGAINST PREVIOUS FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FOR VFR. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS INCREASES OVERNIGHT BEFORE
IFR/LIFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EVENTUALLY RA RATES INCREASE
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION AND IMPACTS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...JAR
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