874
FXUS63 KARX 161052
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
552 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WILDFIRE SMOKE CAUSING
UNHEALTHY TO HAZARDOUS AIR QUALITY THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
- LOW CONFIDENCE (<25%) IN PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY WITH
HEAVY RAIN AS THE MAIN CONCERN SHOULD AND WHERE STORMS FORM.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN MAINLY IN WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. CURRENT OVERNIGHT
DIURNAL TIMING LIMITS STORM STRENGTH AND POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TODAY:
AS THE NORTHERLY, DRY AND SMOKE CONTAMINATED AIR SAGS SOUTH THROUGH
NORTHERN WISCONSIN, THE MORE MOIST AIR MASS LINGERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE MEAGER, A LOW LEVEL
STRETCHING AXIS WILL POTENTIALLY CAUSE PRECIPITATION SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY. WHILE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGESTS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE, ASSOCIATED SOUNDINGS LIMIT ANY INSTABILITY AND OVERALL
UPPER LEVEL SATURATION. STORM STRENGTH WILL ALSO BE LIMITED AS SHEAR
VALUES REMAIN INSIGNIFICANT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY SHOULD
AND WHERE STORMS FORM AS PWATS REMAIN QUITE MOIST NEAR 1.5".
WILDFIRE SMOKE & AIR QUALITY CONCERNS THROUGH TODAY:
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE POOR AIR QUALITY FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRE SMOKE MAINLY FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CURRENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR SMOKE IMPACTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, EVENTUALLY LIFTING NORTHEAST WITH A
SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN. ALLEVIATION MAY
BE SHORT LIVED AS AN UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION DRAGS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA, POTENTIALLY ADVECTING ANOTHER, MORE
TRANSIENT, BOUT OF POOR AIR QUALITY. MINNESOTA AIR POLLUTION CONTROL
AGENCY EXPANDED THE AIR QUALITY ALERT IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA BASED
ON RECORD POOR AIR QUALITY OBSERVATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REMAINS ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
QUASI-REX BLOCK CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
PERMITTING SYNOPTIC MID TO UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS TO PASS ALONG
NORTHWEST FLOW CAUSING PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL (GEFS/EPS/GEPS).
INITIAL CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY CURRENTLY REMAIN CONFINED
LOCALLY TO COUNTIES IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY REQUIRE FURTHER
SOUTHWESTERN BRUSHING OF POPS DEPENDING ON EXTENT AND STRENGTH OF
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND HIGHER HEIGHTS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE
CURRENT OVERNIGHT TIMING LIMITS INSTABILITY (GEFS/EPS) AND THEREFORE
OVERALL STORM POTENTIAL, LATER ADVECTION TO THIS WAVE INTO SATURDAY
WOULD ALSO RAISE MORE WIDESPREAD STORM CONCERNS. SIMILAR, LIMITED
CONFIDENCE FOR SUBSEQUENT SYNOPTIC WAVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
(GEFS/EPS).
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILDFIRES CONTINUES
TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE AND AIR
QUALITY ACROSS THE REGION. THE SMOKE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING, AS IT FOLLOWS IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK
FRONT, INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND AS IT
DOES, SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FORM (10 TO 25%). THERE IS A LITTLE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORM DUE TO THE SMOKE. THE
SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AS A WIND
SHIFT WILL HELP TO SHIFT IT OUT OF THE REGION.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...CECAVA
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