051  
FXUS63 KARX 290758  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
258 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- COOLING OFF THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS FALLING TO THE UPPER  
40S TO AROUND 50 BY SATURDAY.  
 
- DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT  
SHOWERS (10-30% CHANCE) FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025  
 
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY: DRY AND SEASONAL  
 
THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR FOR YESTERDAY/THIS MORNINGS RAIN  
SHOWERS HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE MID/LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ITS EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS  
SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW MORE  
HUNDRETHS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN  
IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE SET ACROSS  
THE AREA WITH MOST PLACES STAYING BELOW 0.25 INCHES. THE  
HIGHEST TOTALS LOOK TO BE CONCENTRATED IN NORTHEAST IOWA  
(0.2-0.4 IN) AND GRANT COUNTY (0.2-0.3 IN) WHERE MOISTURE  
TRANSPORT HAD THE BEST CHANCE TO OVERCOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.  
 
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY,  
ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE  
EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUN PEEKING OUT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION  
NOT FULLY IN SWING JUST YET, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR  
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THURSDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN  
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID  
50S BUT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.  
 
FRIDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK: COOL AND DREARY  
 
THE SYSTEM FROM EARLIER WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT BACK TO THE  
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST  
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE  
REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE ENSEMBLES WANT TO HANDLE THE  
EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW WITH THE GEFS FAVORING A CUTOFF  
SOLUTION OVER OUR AREA WITH THE ENS SUPPORTING A MORE  
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH YET ANOTHER VORT LOBE DROPPING INTO  
THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH RATHER SIGNIFICANT  
DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WILL  
STICK WITH THE BLENDED POPS WHICH KEEPS A LARGELY DRY FORECAST  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT  
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY  
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY  
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS SO HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE  
(15%) AT THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO COME LATE  
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A  
SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH INTERACTS WITH SOME INCREASED LOW  
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RETURN FLOW SETTING BACK UP DURING THE DAY  
ON SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH MONDAY, RAIN  
CHANCES LOOK TO GO WITH IT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR  
MID- NEXT WEEK.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST OF  
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH STEADFAST NORTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING  
COOL, DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL STRUGGLE TO  
TOP THE 50 DEGREE MARK WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER  
40S. THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW SUNDAY WILL HELP TO INCREASE  
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WHERE  
THEY LOOK TO STAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025  
 
CIGS: EXPECTATION IS FOR THE LOWER VFR DECK AT KRST TO SHIFT  
SOUTHWEST BY 06Z, LEAVING MOSTLY MID LEVEL VFR DECK THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT. DECK LOOKS TO SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING WED WITH SCT/SKC  
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THU MORNING.  
 
WX/VSBY: AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE MANAGED TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN  
WI BUT RADAR AND CAMS TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE -SHRA WILL SHIFT  
SOUTHWEST BY 06Z FOR BOTH KRST/KLSE. MINIMAL VSBY IMPACTS/ACCUMS.  
 
WINDS: NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY AT/BELOW 10 KTS  
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES  
OVERHEAD WED EVENING.  
 
 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE  
AVIATION...RIECK  
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