276
FXUS63 KARX 072337
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
637 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR/BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN FOR THE MORNING,
FOCUSED MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- THE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY IS WANING AND ANY IMPACTS
FROM SATURDAY'S RAINFALL IS LOOKING TO BE LOW. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR OUR NEXT WETTING RAIN LOOK TO COME NEXT TUESDAY.
- SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS BY SATURDAY RETURNING TO AROUND 65 TO 70 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: WARMING UP, BASICALLY DRY
WE'LL SEE YET ANOTHER ROUND OF NEAR FREEZING LOWS TOMORROW
MORNING AS CONDITIONS REMAIN PRIMED FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER (DRY AIRMASS, LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES). LOCATIONS WEST OF THE RIVER SHOULD STAY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S AS MID-TO-HIGH CLOUDS START TO MOVE IN LATER
OVERNIGHT, TEMPERING THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. A FROST ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OUR WISCONSIN COUNTIES FROM 1 AM TO 8AM
TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AS FORECAST GUIDANCE IN BOTH THE
MEDIUM AND SHORT RANGES HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. APART FROM THE LOW CHANCE THAT A
TRANSIENT WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SETS OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS SW WISCONSIN, THE AREA SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN DRY. 07.12
HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY A 10-20% CHANCE OF ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION. AS SUCH, HAVE
GENERALLY CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AROUND 12 PERCENT WITH A
CONTINUED LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. SURFACE FLOW WILL FINALLY
START TO BACK TO A MORE WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION, ALLOWING
FOR SOME SUBTLE WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE INCREASED A BIT WITH HIGHS SITTING
IN THE UPPER 60S TO RIGHT AROUND 70 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, THE 12Z SUITE OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING TO
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. AS THE SURFACE LOW DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES, THE COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA, MOVING THROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES
ALONG THIS FRONT HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING DOME OF DRY
AIR/HIGH PRESSURE APPEARS TO BE MUCH MORE MEAGER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. STILL A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE LIFT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
AMPLIFIED CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW. GIVEN THE LOW AMOUNTS
OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, QPF TOTALS REMAIN LESS THAN 0.05
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL START TO
PICK UP, USHERING IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY TAKE A SLIGHT HIT FOR SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
SUNDAY - MID NEXT WEEK: CONTINUED WARMING, RAIN RETURNS TUESDAY
WITH THE COOLER AND DRIER POST FRONTAL AIRMASS IN PLACE, CHANCES FOR
FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS RETURN BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS STARTING
TO DROP BACK INTO THE 30S. DRY CONDITIONS OVERALL WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY,
WE'LL FINALLY START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE RETURN TO THE AREA WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SURFACE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL START TO POOL ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE DOME OF
HIGH PRESSURE LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AROUND THE
SAME TIME, A MORE PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CANADIAN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST WITH
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED MOISTURE AND BOTH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT SHOULD
CREATE OUR BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
POPS ALREADY IN THE 50-70% RANGE FOR 06-18Z TUESDAY. DETAILS ON
QPF WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT
OVERALL, THIS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST PROMISING PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FOR THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON THEIR UPWARD SWING WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
60S TO MID 70S BY MID-NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT CHANGING TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FOR
FRIDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034-041>044-053>055-061.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page