828
FXUS63 KARX 232331
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
631 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20 TO 40%) FOR THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
- FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE 50S AND 60S EXCEPT FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGHS STAY
IN THE 40S FOR THOSE DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 143 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
TODAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND: MOSTLY DRY WITH FLUCTUATING
TEMPERATURES
ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. THE PERIODS WHERE PRECIPITATION COULD FALL ARE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH. WHILE THERE IS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN PWATS, BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.45", THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER
REMAINS VERY DRY. EVEN IF PRECIPITATION COULD FORM IT WOULD MORE
THAN LIKELY NOT REACH THE SURFACE. HAVE PUT IN SOME VERY LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (LESS THAN 15%) FOR LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH. A LOW AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DOES BUILD IN
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS MUCAPE VALUES GET UP TO 500 J/KG FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, INDICATING THAT
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE. NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS
THERE IS ONLY A 50 TO 70% CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND A
10 TO 20% FOR GREATER THAN 0.05" ACCORDING TO THE LATEST LREF. OTHER
THAN THESE TWO PRECIPITATION CHANCES, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES OVER THIS WEEK WILL BE GOING UP AND DOWN, BUT STAYING
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL. TODAY AND FRIDAY (THE DAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH) WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. HIGH GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR TUESDAY AND INCREASE TO
THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AFTER THE COOL
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES RISE BACK INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S FOR THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT THE TERMINALS.
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS EVENING. ANY
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT OVERALL WITH MOST RAIN
LIKELY NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND. AS SUCH CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR AS THESE PASS THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF A GENERAL SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 5-12 KTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SNOWMELT HAS LED TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER THE
PAST WEEK DUE TO THE 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW THAT OCCURRED A WEEK AGO.
THE BASINS THAT HAVE SEEN THE HIGHEST RISES ARE THE BLACK AND YELLOW
RIVER BASINS. SOME GAGES HAVE REACHED OR ARE FORECASTED TO REACH
MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH A FEW MORE HITTING ACTION STAGE. MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK SO THERE WILL
NOT BE A LOT OF ADDITIONAL WATER TO ADD TO THESE BASINS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...BARENDSE
HYDROLOGY...CECAVA
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