383
FXUS63 KARX 060000
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
600 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN LIKELY FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY
EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING. CURRENT FORECASTED RAIN AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 0.75 AND
1.25" FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
- LOW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5)
EXISTS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR. IN THIS AREA ALL HAZARDS
ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST TIMING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR
LOOKS TO BE IN THE EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT.
- AFTER A COOL DAY ON SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY: DRY TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS FOR FRIDAY
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS WE HAVE LIGHT SOUTHEAST
LOW LEVEL FLOW. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EJECT OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING. AHEAD
OF THIS LOW, A SECONDARY WAVE DEVELOPS AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS
TO INCREASE. DURING THE DAY TODAY AND LEADING UP TO THE WAVE
APPROACHING OUR CWA, SOUTHERLY MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
INCREASE PWATS ACROSS THE REGION. BY THE TIME THE WAVE REACHES THE
UPPER MIDWEST, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 1 TO 1.25" RANGE,
WHICH ACCORDING TO NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY IS IN THE 99 TO 99.5 PERCENTILE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AS A RESULT, WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS ARE
LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FIRST WAVE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE CWA BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DURING THE AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON. HEADING INTO THE EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN MOVES
IN WITH INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS THE SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. LOCALIZED
RAINFALL RATES MAY BE HIGH WITH THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWATS AS
ILLUSTRATED BY THE DESI PROBABILITIES FOR 0.5"/HR RATES, WHERE
THERE IS A 10 TO 25 % CHANCE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY EVENING. DUE TO THE FROZEN GROUND OR
SNOW COVER, RAIN WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO INFILTRATE THE SOIL AND
RESULT IN RUNOFF. AS A RESULT SOME RIVER RISES AND LOCALIZED PONDING
WILL BE POSSIBLE. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
SOME RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES DIMINISH SATURDAY
MORNING.
LOOKING AT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, THE FIRST WAVE OF RAIN
FRIDAY MORNING HAD A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SOME SMALL HAIL TO FALL,
HOWEVER THAT HAS SINCE WANED AND WHILE IT IS NOT COMPLETELY RULED
OUT, FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD EXPERIENCE RAIN WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
OF HEAVIER RAIN. HEADING INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT, THE
LOW MOVES CLOSER TO OUR FORECAST AREA. AHEAD OF THE LOW, THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
GETS. BASED ON RECENT CAMS THE WARM FRONT IS ABLE TO GET INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
IF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ABLE TO GET GOING, THEY WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT
OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR TO WORK WITH, AROUND 30 TO 40KTS OF 0-1KM SHEAR.
THE 850MB WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG, AROUND 40 TO 55KTS
ACCORDING TO THE SPC HREF. THIS AMOUNT OF WIND ALOFT WILL HAVE A LOW
CHANCE OF MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE RIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH DURING THE LATER EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. WITH THE STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE AND THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE HAIL TO OCCUR IF STORMS
CAN DEVELOP. LASTLY, THERE IS A LOW TORNADO POTENTIAL IF STORMS
BECOME SURFACE BASED AS THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
HELICITY, AROUND 200 TO 300 M2/S2 OF 0-3KM SRH BASED ON RECENT
MODELS.
SATURDAY-THURSDAY: WARM AND DRY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, COOLER WITH
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES MIDWEEK
THE TROUGH THAT WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHIFTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. COOLER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT LEAVING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WILL MAKE FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES IN MID 20S
TO MID 30S. WARMER, SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY HELPING HIGHS TO GET INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S,
WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES TO STICK AROUND
INTO TUESDAY! HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A TROUGH DIPS
DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST INCREASING RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES,
CURRENTLY SITTING BETWEEN 30 AND 50%.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL DOMINATE THE PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SHOWERS EXPECTED MAINLY AFTER 10-12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MIDDAY.
SOME THUNDER MAY OCCUR (10-30%) WITH THE MORNING SHOWERS BUT THE
BULK OF THE THUNDER LOOKS TO OCCUR AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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