328
FXUS63 KARX 202315
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
515 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES.
- POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
- A RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE TO END
OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
COOLER WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FLURRIES
19Z WV SATELLITE SHOWS CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE CONUS. UPPER LOW WHICH BROUGHT LAST NIGHT'S HAMMERING OF SNOW
HAS DEPARTED TO THE EAST WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND STRATOCUMULUS
ACROSS THE CWA. UPPER WAVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ARRIVE
TOMORROW BUT THIS SHOULD SKIRT BY JUST TO OUR SOUTH TOMORROW
MORNING. HOWEVER, AS THE MAIN BODY OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND A WAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY NIGHT, COULD GET A FEW FLURRIES AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS UNLIKELY,
AS REFLECTED IN 20.12Z REFS GUIDANCE, WHERE ENSEMBLE MAXIMUM SNOW
VALUES THIS WEEKEND ARE UNDER 1" ACROSS THE AREA.
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW MIDWEEK
20.12Z GUIDANCE HAS UNFORTUNATELY BACKED OFF ON THE SUGGESTION THAT
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WOULD BECOME QUASI-ZONAL FROM MIDWEEK.
THUS, WILL NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR CLIPPER STYLE SYSTEMS TO EJECT
OUT OF CANADA AND BRING US ADDITIONAL SNOW. IN PARTICULAR, A
DISTURBANCE TUESDAY AND THEN ANOTHER NEXT WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY PROVIDE
THE MOST PROBABLE WINDOWS DEPENDING ON THE TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER
WAVE. FOR TUESDAY, BROAD AGREEMENT THAT THE WAVE WILL ARRIVE AROUND
MIDDAY WITH MOST (80%) ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEPING APPRECIABLE (1"+)
SNOW NORTHEAST OF THE CWA WITH THE REMAINDER (20%) CONFINING
ACCUMULATION TO NORTH/EAST OF I-94. FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, A
VARIETY OF TIMING AND TRAJECTORIES FOR A CLIPPER EJECTING OUT OF
SOUTHERN ALBERTA. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST 3" IS LOW
(<25%) WHEN EXAMINING BOTH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND TIME-LAGGED CLUSTER
ANALYSIS, THERE ARE A FEW MEMBERS WITH GREATER THAN 5" OF
ACCUMULATION.
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL MID TO LATE WEEK
GUIDANCE TREND TO HOLD ONTO THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ALSO
REFLECTED IN PROGGED TEMPERATURE INTERQUARTILE RANGES - THE MID 30S
TO MID 40S SEEN IN THE 19.13Z NBM NOW RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S TO
AROUND 40 WITH THE 20.13Z RUN. CERTAINLY COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY BUT MORE IN LINE WITH NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW ISOLATED
POCKETS OF VFR. A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT STATIONS
ACROSS SE MINNESOTA AND NE IOWA BUT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS SEEM
MINIMAL OVERALL. THESE SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE COMING HOURS. A
LOWER CONFIDENCE CIG FORECAST IS ON DECK FOR THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS WITH GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO WAFFLE BETWEEN MVFR AND LOW
END VFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT CATEGORY
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME TRANSIENT VFR POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINALS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5-15 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...BARENDSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page