967
FXUS63 KARX 220436
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1136 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VALLEY FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
- ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK. USED NBM 90TH PERCENTILE TO RAISE THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES 2 TO 5F.
- TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOLER AND WETTER NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
OVERNIGHT
LIKE LAST NIGHT, THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND
DRY DEW POINTS HAS RESULTED IN STRONG RADIATIVE COOLING THIS
EVENING. THE CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY APPROACHING THE
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES FOR OVERNIGHT. DUE TO THIS, LOWERED
THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES BY USING A 50-50 BLEND OF THE NBM
AND THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE FOR MOST AREAS. IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN, WENT 100 PERCENT NBM 10TH PERCENTILE. THIS RESULTED
IN LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-30S TO MID-40S.
WITH A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS UP 8K FEET OVERNIGHT, WE SHOULD
SEE VALLEY FOG DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNS OF IT
DEVELOPING ON OUR OFFICE WEB CAM. THIS VALLEY FOG SHOULD
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN 22.15Z AND 22.16Z.
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
OF THE AREA'S WEATHER. THIS HIGH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. WITH THE NBM RUNNING ON THE COOL
SIDE MUCH OF LAST WEEK AND SINCE SUNDAY, USED THE NBM 90TH
PERCENTILE TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS RESULTED IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID-70S THROUGH SATURDAY.
WITH THE NBM BEING A BIT TOO WARM ON LOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE
PAST 3 NIGHTS, USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE NBM AND NBM 10TH
PERCENTILE TO LOWER THEM FOR TONIGHT. THIS RESULTED IN LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID-40S TO MID-50S. ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS, THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID-50S.
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL GET. SOME KEEP IT
MAINLY TO OUR NORTH. OTHERS DROP THIS FRONT SOUTH AS INTERSTATE
80. THIS RESULT IN MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPERATURES AND WHERE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF-INCH
WHEREVER IT ENDS UP.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY MEANDER
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL IMPACT BOTH TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND A DEEP LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS UP 8K FEET,
VALLEY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH 22.15Z.
THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT KLSE. KRST WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...BOYNE
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