944
FXUS63 KARX 072337
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
637 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S
ARE FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
- COOLER CONDITIONS AND RAIN CHANCES (30-50%) RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY: MOSTLY DRY WITH WARM CONDITIONS
NORTHWEST TO WEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WORK WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY STEADY IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EACH AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST AS WELL, OUTSIDE OF THE LOW CHANCE (10-30%) FOR
LIGHT RAIN ON FRIDAY MORNING. A NARROW CORRIDOR OF POSITIVE
THETA-E ADVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER IOWA TOWARDS THE
GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AS STRONG WAA IN THE LOWER LEVELS SURGES
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
SUBTLE PVA IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRIER AIR OVER
THE REGION, THE ANTICIPATION IS THAT NOT MUCH RAINFALL SHOULD
OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND
INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ENSEMBLE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO BE IN GREAT AGREEMENT THAT SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST 07/13Z NBM PROBABILITIES
STILL SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR HIGHS TO REACH OR EXCEED 80
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE DRIFTLESS REGION. IN
ADDITION TO THE WARM CONDITIONS, SOUTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE ON
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN INCREASING LLJ AT H850 WITH WIND
SPEEDS UP TO 35-45 KTS. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO SURFACE WIND
SPEEDS UP TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30-40 MPH. NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS TO REACH OR EXCEED 40 MPH ARE THE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA, CLOSER TO
THE LOW LEVEL JET MAX, AND THOSE PROBABILITIES ARE UPWARDS OF
40-60 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DECREASE BY A FEW DEGREES ON
SUNDAY ALONG WITH MUCH LESS NOTICEABLE WIND AS THE RIDGE MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: TRENDING COOLER AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A TROUGH WILL
DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THAT IS
ABOUT WHERE THE AGREEMENT ENDS. HOW THE TROUGH AND THE
ASSOCIATED CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE EVOLVE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF
THE WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IN ANY CASE, THIS PATTERN SHOULD
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. DISTURBANCES OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED
WITH SURGING MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THE MAIN QUESTIONS RIGHT NOW ARE JUST
WHEN ARE THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
COULD OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONALLY, MULTIPLE TROPICAL
CYCLONES MAY ATTEMPT TO INTERACT WITH THE TROUGHING PATTERN
ACROSS THE WEST AND THOSE SYSTEMS MAY ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW, THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD
ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT THIS COULD OCCUR IN TWO WAVES, WITH THE
FIRST BEING ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THE SECOND ONE BEING
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THOSE DETAILS WILL BECOME
MORE CLEAR AS WE GET CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
REMAINING AT AROUND 5 KTS FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. VALLEY FOG IS
UNLIKELY AT KLSE DUE TO BOTH THE NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
WINDS ABOVE 10 KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. HOWEVER, IF WINDS CAN
TREND MORE CALM OVERNIGHT, WOULD NOT RULE OUT (10-20% CHANCE)
SOME INTERMITTENT FOG OR PERHAPS A BROKEN LOW-STRATUS DECK ON
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MUSCHA
AVIATION...NAYLOR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page