975
FXUS63 KARX 162351
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
651 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
THE EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND FOR MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT
FOR ANY SEVERE STORM WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ALL STORM HAZARDS
POSSIBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEVERE THREAT.
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
TODAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A SURFACE LOW SITUATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS HAS HELPED TO GIVE
WAY TO INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY, AROUND 250 TO 750 J/KG OF
MUCAPE, IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER THERE IS LITTLE TO NO
SHEAR FOR STORMS TO WORK WITH. THESE TYPES OF STORMS WILL PULSE UP
AND DOWN DUE TO THIS LIMITED SHEAR. DESPITE THE LIMITED SHEAR, THERE
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH THESE STORMS. ANOTHER THING TO WATCH
OUT FOR IS A RIBBON OF SURFACE VORTICITY THAT IS CURRENTLY IN
NORTHERN CLARK AND SOUTHERN TAYLOR COUNTIES. THIS COUPLED WITH THE
WEAK INSTABILITY AND LIMITED SHEAR COULD LEAD TO SOME FUNNEL CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE
EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO INCREASE,
AROUND 35 TO 45KTS. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE LOW FORMS IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH WINDS SHIFTING AROUND THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT,
MOISTURE ADVECTION REALLY INCREASES AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WITH
PWATS OF 1.25 TO 1.5". AHEAD OF THIS JET, MOISTURE ADVECTION CREEPS
INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA BEFORE THE JET GETS
GOING. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z IS WHEN THE LOW LEVEL JET BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY NORTHEAST IOWA, AND WHEN INSTABILITY BUILDS
IN, WITH AROUND 500 TO 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE. WITH THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AND GOOD AMOUNT OF SHEAR SPC HAS GONE AHEAD AND PUT A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING THAT JUST CLIPS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA, WITH MOST OF NORTHEAST IOWA IN THE
MARGINAL RISK. IT IS ALL ABOUT TIMING AND AND HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW
LEVEL JET CAN PUSH TO DETERMINE IF WE SEE SEVERE STORMS IN THE
MORNING. REGARDLESS OF THE SEVERITY, THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS ARE BETWEEN 0.5 TO 0.75" FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90
WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 1" FOR SOUTHERN CLAYTON AND GRANT COUNTIES.
WITH THESE BEING STORMS, THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD SHIFT SO
WHILE THE GENERAL AREA MAY SEE AROUND 0.5 TO 0.75" THROUGH THE
MORNING, SOME AREAS COULD SEE OVER AN INCH DUE TO THE HIGH PWAT
VALUES.
BY THE AFTERNOON, ANOTHER SURFACE LOW COMES DOWN INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE SOUTHERN LOW FADES INTO THE
NORTHERN LOW SOMEWHERE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA BY THE LATER
AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT OUR FORECAST
AREA, PARTICULARLY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 HAVE A CHANCE AT
RECOVERING FROM THE MORNING STORMS AS DEWPOINTS CREEP BACK INTO THE
LOW 60S. WITH STRONG 0-6KM SHEAR, AROUND 55 TO 65 KTS, MODEST
INSTABILITY, BETWEEN 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE, AND POTENTIALLY
MINIMAL CAPPING IN PLACE, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPC HAS WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-90 FOR THE AFTERNOON STORMS AS ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE MORNING STORMS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE AFTERNOON, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ON
THIS POTENTIAL. AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND IN COMBINATION WITH ANY STORMS THAT PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THE LATEST
HREF LPMM HAS POCKETS OF 1.5 TO 2" OF RAIN ACROSS THE CWA SO THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF RAIN TO FALL ON WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY: PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A
COUPLE OF WAVES PASS THROUGH GIVING WAY TO LOW SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY, A SURFACE LOW EJECTS
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD. THERE REMAINS SOME
TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF BUT THE
GENERAL IDEA IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
CONTINUE TO REMAIN MILD AS THEY STAY IN THE 70S
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
IMPENDING ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN AHEAD. INCREASE IN
MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO LOWERING CEILINGS IN GENERAL EVEN
OUTSIDE OF PRECIP, SO HAVE INCLUDED MVFR AND THEN IFR AT
RST/LSE. TOUGH TO TIME OUT THE SHOWERS AT THIS TIME, BUT ONE
ROUND FOCUSING AROUND THE 08Z TO 14Z TIME FRAME WILL SWEEP
EAST WITH THE CHANCE FOR TS WITH THIS ROUND TOO LOW (20%) FOR A
MENTION. THE SECOND ROUND WILL MAINLY BE 18Z AND LATER AND THERE
SHOULD BE MORE TS WITH THIS BATCH, SO HAVE STARTED OUT WITH A
BROAD PROB30 WITH THIS, THE FIRST ISSUANCE TO COVER THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL TIMING AND LEVEL CONFIDENCE ADJUSTMENTS OVER
THE NEXT 3 CYCLES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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