398
FXUS63 KARX 151102
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
502 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLIPPER SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE MOST LOCATIONS IN
SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA WILL SEE UNDER 2", PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WI ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 2-4" OF SNOW
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH INCREASING WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH
AND SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- LIGHT SNOW LINGERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT ADDITIONAL HAZARD FROM SNOW SHOWERS, BUT CHANCES APPEAR
LOWER COMPARED TO FRIDAY.
- SEASONABLY COLD SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WIND
CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO EACH MORNING, IN PARTICULAR MONDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
TODAY - TONIGHT: SNOW MOVES IN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES
OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN
THE STAGE IS SET FOR OUR WINTER SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS SLIDING ITS WAY INTO
THE AREA THAT WILL ENABLE SOME WARM ADVECTION TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. AS THIS OCCURS, A SHORTWAVE QUICK ON ITS HEELS WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHERN WI INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A SFC LOW POSITIONED TO
ITS NORTH. OVERALL, THESE SEPARATE FORCING MECHANISMS BEING
DISPLACED WILL RESULT IN VARIOUS SEGMENTS OF THIS EVENT, ALL OF
WHICH POSE SOME DEGREE OF IMPACT. THIS AFTERNOON, THE HI-RES
CAMS BRING IN A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
WARM ADVECTION WHICH WILL BE OUR FIRST ROUND OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME QUESTION REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL OCCUR WITH THIS INITIAL WARM ADVECTION AS THERE IS A
NOTABLE DRY LAYER IN THE HRRR/RAP SOUNDINGS THAT ANY FORCING
WOULD NEED TO OVERCOME AND SATURATE BEFORE WE COULD GET SNOW
PRODUCTION. IN ANY CASE, THE 15.00Z HREF HAS RESPECTABLE
PROBABILITIES (30-60% CHANCE) FOR AMOUNTS AROUND 0.5", HOWEVER
ANYMORE WOULD LIKELY BE A STRETCH. EITHER WAY, THIS WOULD BE
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH JUST TOWARDS THE EVENING COMMUTE SO SOME
TRAVEL IMPACTS WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE.
AS THIS FIRST ROUND OF SNOW DEPARTS, THE WEAKENING FORCING RESULTS
IN A LOSS OF SATURATION AND ICE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
SEVERAL OF THE CAMS SOUNDINGS WHICH WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY
FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ENTER THE PICTURE DURING THE EVENING HOURS,
MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-94. OVERALL, THIS HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
A LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS DURING THE EVENING. IN ANY CASE, IMPACTS WITH THIS ARE UNCLEAR
AS THE DURATION ON THE ORDER OF A COUPLE OF HOURS AT THE MOST PRIOR
TO STRONGER FORCING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT SWITCHING P-TYPES
BACK TO SNOW.
AS WE HEAD LATER INTO THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH REGIME BEGINS TO CENTER ITSELF OVERHEAD ACCOMPANIED
WITH THE SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WI. WHATS IMPORTANT
HERE IS THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THIS SURFACE LOW POSITIONS
ITSELF LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL BE CRITICAL FOR HOW
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL MANIFEST IN WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. BOTH THE RECENT 15.06Z RAP/HRRR REALLY DEVELOP A SMALL
BUT MIGHTY DEFORMATION REGION ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. IN THIS SCENARIO THE RAP/HRRR HAS A NARROW BAND OF
4-6"+ WITH THE STRONGER FORCING IN NORTHER WI. OTHER SCENARIOS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WOULD KEEP THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER FURTHER NORTH AND LIMIT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO SOME DEGREE
IN THE LOCAL AREA. REGARDLESS, GIVEN THE LONGER DURATION OF THE
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW, HAVE OPTED TO WITHHOLD ANY WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINE ISSUANCES AS PROBABILITIES FOR 3 INCHES OR GREATER
WITHIN THE 15.00Z HREF STILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER-END (30-50%) IN
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH CURRENT FORECAST AMOUNTS IN THE
1-3" RANGE BY 6AM ON FRIDAY. THAT BEING SAID, IF THIS LOW
CONFIDENCE AND FURTHER SOUTH SOLUTION WITH A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW MANIFESTS, WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WOULD VERY LIKELY BE
NEEDED.
FRIDAY: BLUSTERY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS, BLOWING SNOW WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST PROVIDING A BRIEF LULL IN
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER,
WITH FLOW BEGINNING TO SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY, INCREASING COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND A TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE DEPARTING
LOW, EXPECTING WINDS TO INCREASE FOR THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
ON FRIDAY. AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON, A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT.
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, PROBABILITIES (60-90% CHANCE)
FOR WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH INCREASING SHARPLY FOR THE AFTERNOON.
AS A RESULT, BLOWING SNOW FROM BOTH ANY RECENTLY FALLEN SNOW
AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE 15.00Z HREF
HAVING MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (30-60%) FOR MORE SUSCEPTIBLE AREAS
TO SEE 1/2-MILE VSBY REDUCTIONS OR LOWER DUE TO BLOWING SNOW
DURING THIS PERIOD. PRETTY UNLIKELY WE SEE TRUE SNOW SQUALL
CONDITIONS WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY AS OPPOSED TO FURTHER WEST
WHERE THE CAMS SHOW MORE PRONOUNCED HCR-TYPE SNOW SHOWERS.
ADDITIONALLY, FLASH FREEZE SEEMS TO BE LESS OF A CONCERN AT THIS
POINT WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE HREF FAVORING BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES (OVER 90% CHANCE) THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ADDITIONAL IMPULSES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOK TO EJECT
DOWNSTREAM DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, SATURDAY NIGHT, AND AGAIN
SUNDAY. GIVEN LACK OF ROBUST MOIST ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENETIC
ENHANCEMENT TO LIFT SEEN IN MOST 15.00Z MODELS, CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT SNOWFALL RATES AND THUS SNOW TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT DURING
THESE PERIODS. PATH FOR IMPACTS WOULD THEN FOCUS ON POTENTIAL FOR
SNOW SHOWERS AND CONCOMITANT HAZARDOUS VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. SOME
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE RATES WILL APPROACH 9
C/KM BUT WITH AN OVERALL REDUCTION IN MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE
POTENTIAL SNOW SHOWER SETUP WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI ON FRIDAY,
PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTS IS LOWER.
SEASONABLY COLD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT
PASSAGE OF FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO, WELL, MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT, WITH EACH OF
THESE NIGHT HAVING A 25-95% CHANCE FOR VALUES TO DROP BELOW 0
DEPENDING ON LOCATION. WHILE NONE OF THESE NIGHTS TRULY STANDS OUT
FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF POTENTIAL RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO
LINGERING CLOUDS FROM EACH OF THE UPPER IMPULSES DESCRIBED ABOVE AND
LESS THAN OPTIMAL PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT
WINDS, ANY BREAK IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD SEND TEMPERATURES DROPPING
QUICKLY. AS FOR WIND CHILL, WORST NIGHT APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE PER 15.00Z GFS/CMC AND 14.12Z EC, WITH THE CONTINUED BREEZE
POTENTIALLY PUSHING WIND CHILLS BELOW -20. STILL PLENTY OF DETAILS
TO SHAKE OUT BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 502 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION. VISIBILITIES WITHIN THIS BAND WILL
LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2-4SM AT TIMES, PERHAPS UNDER 2SM GIVEN THAT
THE 15.00Z HREF HAS MODERATE PROBABILITIES FOR THIS (40-70% CHANCE).
BEHIND THIS BAND OF SNOW, VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SATURATION IS LOST ALOFT.
THIS WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE LIKELY TRANSITION BACK TO
SNOW LATER INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH CONTINUED MVFR TO IFR
CIGS TOWARDS 12Z FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD LIGHT BUT
QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
LIKELY FURTHER INCREASE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT TO
AROUND 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST-
NORTHWEST.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON/NAYLOR
AVIATION...NAYLOR
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