531
FXUS63 KARX 181900
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
- WARMING TREND FOR THE EARLY TO MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE BREEZY TO GUSTY WIND FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING. A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN, WILL DESCEND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
STEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED TO ANY
ATTENDANT MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD WITH A NEAR SATURATED LAYER UP TO
AROUND 10 KFT DEPTH WITH A SHALLOW DRY LAYER BELOW IT. THAT
SATURATED LAYER WILL BE COLD WITH MUCH OF IT RESIDING WITH IN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ABOVE THAT
LAYER. THETA-E ADVECTION WITH THE ATTENDANT MOISTURE AND GOOD
KINEMATIC FORCING WITH PROVIDE AMPLE VERTICAL ASCENT AND
HYDROMETEORS DEVELOPMENT AND SNOW SHOWER FORMATION. NOT
EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS WITH WARMER ROAD TEMPERATURES BUT IT IS
POSSIBLE SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS COULD OCCUR ON GRASSY AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AND WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL SETUP SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST SETTING UP THE AREA IN RETURN FLOW. IN
ADDITION, SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS WELL AS THETA-E ADVECTION BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALOFT.
CURRENTLY HAVE FORECAST LOWS IN THE 20S AND WITH COLDER HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY, THESE LOWS STILL LOOK ON
TARGET. THOUGH SOME ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF CLOUDS OR WARM
ADVECTION ARRIVE SOONER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
STRONGER WARM ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE LATE MONDAY WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ON WEDNESDAY WILL TRANSLATE EAST
INTO THURSDAY LEADING TO STEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE
GULF MOISTURE STREAM WILL OPEN UP BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET POINTING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS
MAY BRING AN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARRIVE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYNOPTIC
SETUP IS FAVORABLE FOR INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY THAT WOULD PROMOTE ORGANIZED STRONG TO PERHAPS
SEVERE CONVECTION. COOLER WEATHER RETURNS TO END THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
STRATOCUMULUS BKN/OVC IN THE 3500-4000 FT RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH GRADUAL CLEARING
ARRIVING FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND HAVE ADDED A PROB30 GROUP AT KRST WHERE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE RESIDES. A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS MAY ALSO
OCCUR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL THEN REDEVELOP BY MID TO LATE
SUNDAY MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR AREA RIVERS,
INCLUDING THE BLACK, YELLOW, AND WISCONSIN RIVERS, MAINLY FOR
MINOR FLOODING. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CREST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. NO MEANINGFUL ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO MID-NEXT WEEK. APART FROM A FEW FLURRIES
TODAY AND TONIGHT, CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DONAVON/DMX
AVIATION...BARENDSE
HYDROLOGY...BARENDSE/DONAVON
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