798
FXUS63 KARX 191817
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
117 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 NIGHTS
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-30S TO MID-40S. THERE
MIGHT BE PATCHY AREAS OF FROST IN CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
WISCONSIN NIGHTLY.
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY WANES DURING THIS TIME
IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO FAVOR SOME
SPRINKLES OR VIRGA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT
THE SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CAUSE SKIES
TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. WITH NORTHWEST WINDS REMAINING IN THE
5 TO 10 MPH RANGE, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING IN BOUNDARY LAYER
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT. AS A RESULT, EXPECTING TO
SEE LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID-30S TO MID-40S. THESE
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE NBM. SINCE THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-30S WERE NOT WIDESPREAD, OPTED NOT ISSUING A
FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT APPROACHES, MID- AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. LIKE TONIGHT, THE EAST WINDS WILL BE
IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE. AS A RESULT, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID-40S. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
THAN NORMAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE JUST WARM ENOUGH THAT FROST DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE A CONCERN.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
TWO NORTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT. EACH OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION. WITH
INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR BEING WEAK, NOT EXPECTING TO SEE ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER.
EARLY NEXT WEEK
THERE IS GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
LIKELY BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, GREAT LAKES,
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR OUR AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
AN OVC TO BKN CLOUD DECK GRADUALLY THINS AND LIFTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS AFTER 03-05Z THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15G20-25KTS GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AND VEER TO THE NORTH AROUND 5 KTS FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...SKOW
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