617
FXUS63 KARX 300824
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
224 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN
PACIFIC AIR MASSES WILL BE DOMINANT FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
- THERE WILL BE SNOW CHANCES ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT, AND FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, AND THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE BETTER MOISTURE AND
LIFT IS LOCATED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND OVER AND DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES WHERE CONDITIONS
ARE IDEAL FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS. MEANWHILE, IN THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI, THERE IS JUST ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (UP TO 50
MB) FOR SOME SNOW FLURRIES. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE FLURRIES
THIS MORNING WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION AND THIS WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE REGION'S WEATHER
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES TODAY AND FROM
15 TO 20 DEGREES ON SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TONIGHT AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
THE WESTERN LONGWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS, OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL
CHANGE FROM BRINGING ARCTIC AIR MASSES SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH INTO
THE AREA TO BRINGING MORE PACIFIC AIR MASSES INTO THE REGION.
AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS, THERE WILL BE A BAND OF SNOW THAT
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. THE LREF CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THERE IS OVER A
90 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW (0.1 INCHES OR GREATER) TO
OCCUR. THE PROBABILITIES FOR 1 INCH OR GREATER IS UP TO 30
PERCENT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 AND 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST MEMBERS IN THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES (UP TO 10 PERCENT).
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID-20S.
LOW TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15
DEGREES.
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE PHASING
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. IN ADDITION, THE
SPEED OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE SNOW
TOTALS. THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS (44 PERCENT OF THE MEMBERS) WITH
MORE RIDGING DOWNSTREAM HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER. MEANWHILE, THE
REMAINDER OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW LESS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING
AS A RESULT THEY HAVE THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION MUCH FASTER. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY UP TO 10 PERCENT OF
THE THESE MEMBERS PRODUCING AT LEAST 1.5 INCHES OR GREATER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 20S. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. 79 PERCENT
OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE UP TO A 25 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF 1.5 INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER FROM ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER EAST INTO WISCONSIN. THE GREATEST
PROBABILITIES (40-80 PERCENT) ARE LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID-20S TO LOWER 30S. LOW TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
A BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS WITHIN THIS BAND ARE MAINLY BETWEEN 3500
AND 6000FT. THIS BAND WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THE MID
MORNING AND SCATTER OUT LEAVING BEHIND SOME CLOUDS AROUND 5000FT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES HAVE AROUND A
40 TO 60% CHANCE THAT MVFR CIGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS CLOUD COVERAGE MAY INCREASE
RESULTING IN CIGS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3500FT. THIS MAY NEED TO BE
ADDED TO THE TAFS IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...CECAVA
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