324
FXUS63 KARX 151130
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY (40-90%), PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF RAIN, BUT SOME
SNOW (30-60%) AND PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN (<10%) MAY MIX IN
NORTH OF I-94. BREEZY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE PRECIPITATION
WITH GUSTS OF 45 MPH POSSIBLE (20-50%).
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL (30-50%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
TODAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION TODAY ON
BACKSIDE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHIFTING THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS IN STORE AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS BACK
IN, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 50S SOUTH OF I-94
AND MID 40S NORTH OF I-94.
AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE
TO AN 850-700HPA SHORTWAVE THAT SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION.
STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE 295K SURFACE AND MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE SOME LIGHT RAINFALL FOR A FEW HOURS NORTH OF I-94
(10-20%), ALTHOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS DO DEPICT SOME DRY AIR BELOW
5KFT, WHICH WOULD ACT TO INHIBIT RAIN FROM REACHING THE SURFACE.
WHERE RAIN IS ABLE TO FALL THROUGH THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER, A
COUPLE HUNDRETHS OF QPF IS EXPECTED.
ANOMALOUS WARMTH CONTINUES
A FEW MORE DAYS OF ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION AS RIDGING, SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION REMAIN THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WHEN THOSE SOUTH OF
I-90 COULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S (30-60% PER
THE 15.01Z NBM). HIGH TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUESDAY AS
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP AHEAD
OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS AS DEPICTED
IN THE 15.00Z LREF, BUT HIGHS REMAIN AROUND 45-55 DEGREES.
PRECIPITATION RETURNS MID WEEK
A STRONG 500HPA SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE GREAT PLAINS
TUESDAY, SUPPORTING THE DEEPENING OF AN ATTENDANT MID-LATITUDE
CYCLONE AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. CONSENSUS AMONGST THE
15.00Z LREF MEMBERS REMAINS HIGH REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE
LOW, WHICH IS DEPICTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN, FAVORING AN OVERALL WARMER
SOLUTION.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND 850-700HPA FRONTOGENESIS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY DRIVERS OF
PRECIPITATION WITH BOTH FORCINGS MAXIMIZED GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-94, COINCIDING WITH THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF. GIVEN A
WARMER SOLUTION IS CURRENTLY FAVORED, THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE RAIN WITH THE 15.01Z NBM HIGHLIGHTING
20-40% PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 0.1" OF QPF ACROSS THE
REGION, AND 20-30% PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 0.2" NORTH OF
I-94. STILL CAN'T RULE OUT SOME THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT AS
MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 100 J/KG CONTINUE TO BE DEPICTED IN THE GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS.
SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON NORTH OF I-94 AS COLD AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION (30-60%), ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST SNOW POTENTIAL EXISTS
NORTH OF OUR AREA. SOME CONCERN FOR FREEZING RAIN ALSO REMAINS
FOR TAYLOR AND CLARK COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT A WEAK WARM NOSE ALOFT AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HOVERING RIGHT AROUND FREEZING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH. JOINT PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN
(PRECIPITATION, 850HPA TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING, AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING) HAVE DECREASED IN THE 15.00Z LREF,
CURRENTLY SITTING AROUND 10% AT THE MAXIMUM AS HIGHER
PROBABILITIES HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD.
LOOKING AT THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE, A TIGHTENING
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET UPWARDS
OF 40KTS SHOULD LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE (20-50%),
PRIMARILY FOR THOSE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SOUTH OF
I-90 PER THE 15.01Z NBM, WHICH HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS.
LATE WEEK SYSTEM
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DEPICT ANOTHER WAVE
DEVELOPING QUICKLY BEHIND THE MID-WEEK WAVE, MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION (30-50% PER THE 15.01Z NBM). WHILE QUITE A BIT OF
VARIATION EXISTS AMONGST THE ENSEMBLES WITH REGARD TO THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, CURRENT TRENDS FAVOR A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK AS COMPARED TO THE MID-WEEK WAVE. WITH COOLING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, IF THIS SOUTHERLY SOLUTION VERIFIES,
SNOW WILL BE THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE TO END THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
MIST/FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE NOTED THIS MORNING, BUT ANY FOG/MIST IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 15Z. OUTSIDE OF THIS, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 5-15KTS AFTER 00Z,
HIGHEST WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD INCREASES TO 35-40KT.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
HERE ARE SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER FROM FEBRUARY 15 THROUGH
FEBRUARY 16.
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 15
(RECORD/FORECAST):
HIGH TEMP
----------------------------------------
ROCHESTER, MN 49 (1931) / 54
LA CROSSE, WI 65 (1921) / 54
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16
(RECORD/FORECAST):
HIGH TEMP
----------------------------------------
ROCHESTER, MN 59 (1931) / 54
LA CROSSE, WI 60 (1921/1981) / 57
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARM LOWS MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16
(RECORD/FORECAST):
WARM LOW TEMP
----------------------------------------
ROCHESTER, MN 35 (1931) / 40
LA CROSSE, WI 40 (1981) / 36
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
CLIMATE...FALKINHAM
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