803
FXUS63 KARX 120844
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
244 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM UP INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FROM
SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY!
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (35 TO 55%) RETURN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
WARM TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK!:
THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE IN SPLIT FLOW FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
WHEN LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC DATA, THEY ALL SUPPORT A
RIDGE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THEN INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WHILE OUR
REGION REMAINS UNDER THE RIDGE, LOW LEVEL WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE, HELPING TO KEEP THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING. WITH
THIS WARMTH, EFI VALUES OF 0.7 TO 0.8 ARE SHOWING UP ACROSS THE CWA
FOR BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INDICATING THAT THESE TEMPERATURES ON
THE HIGHER SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL. AS A RESULT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-94 AND THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR NORTH OF I-94. THESE
TEMPERATURES WARM UP BY A COUPLE DEGREES FOR SATURDAY.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW
TAKES OVER AS THE SPLIT FLOW SHIFTS INTO A RIDGE FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THIS RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, BUT BEFORE IT DOES, WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST, WHERE THE WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED.
EFI VALUES FOR THE DAYTIME HIGHS ARE BETWEEN 0.7 AND 0.9 FOR THE
CWA, WITH HIGHEST VALUES COMING ON SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO A SHIFT OF
TAILS OF 0 FOR THE PARTS OF CWA ON EACH DAY INDICATING THERE ARE
SOME OUTLIERS. NOW COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS FORECAST, THERE ARE NOT AS
MANY OUTLIERS OF 60 DEGREES AT LA CROSSE OR ROCHESTER. THIS IS DUE
TO A LOW MOVING OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEREAS IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THIS LOW WAS MOVING FURTHER NORTH, HELPING TO
BRING EVEN WARMER AIR TO THE REGION. DESPITE THIS SLIGHT SOUTHERLY
CHANGE OF TRAJECTORY, THE WARM AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. WHILE THERE
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE ANY THREAT TO RECORD HIGHS AT THE MOMENT GIVEN
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S SOUTH OF I-94 AND THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH OF I-94, THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS TO BE BROKEN ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH
SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 40F. OVERALL, THE NEXT FEW DAYS LOOK TO
BE QUITE WARM WITH TEMPERATURES 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
IS SHAPING UP TO BE A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR!
PRECIPITATION CHANCES:
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING AND
MOISTURE FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH. BY TUESDAY,
AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN A LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
THE CWA. THE PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 0.1 INCHES OF QPF FALLING
BETWEEN TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY EVENING ARE BETWEEN 30 TO 70%
WITH THE HIGHER VALUES NORTH OF I-94. INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF QPF
TO 0.25 INCHES, THE PROBABILITIES ARE BETWEEN 20 AND 40% ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-94 AND 40 TO 55% NORTH OF I-94.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER, SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS, INCLUDING LSE, MAY SEE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OVERNIGHT, PARTICULARLY IF A BREAK IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OCCURS. WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
ON THE INCREASE, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS CHANCE IS VERY
LOW (5%). OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS AND
VARIABLE BUT WITH A MORE CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
DEVELOPING OVER TIME.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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