722
FXUS63 KARX 312358
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
658 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
DEPENDING ON HOW DENSE THE SMOKE IS FROM THE CANADIAN
WILDFIRES.
- MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS INTO
THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THEN COOLING BACK DOWN TO THE
MID 70S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (80 TO
90%) FOR TUESDAY WITH PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
FROM WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
MOSTLY DRY, WARMING, AND LINGERING SMOKE THROUGH MONDAY
A LONGWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WHILE SHORTWAVE
RIDGING COMES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS TROUGHING PATTERN. WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD ON MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS A TROUGH,
WHICH CAN BE SEEN AT 925 MB AS WELL, EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. WHILE THE BETTER LIFT IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE, THIS AREA HAS ENOUGH LIFT AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE THAT SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. A CAVEAT TO
THIS SHOWER POTENTIAL IS THE DENSE SMOKE FROM THE CANADIAN
WILDFIRES. WHEN LOOKING AT YESTERDAYS FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA, ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
THIS FACTOR COULD PLAY A ROLE IN REDUCING SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE MOST
RECENT CAM RUNS HAVE VERY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. ALL THIS TO SAY THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (AROUND 10%) THAT A
SHOWER COULD FORM IN OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON, SOME OF THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE HAS
INCREASED POPS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE GFS DOES HAVE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT PUSHES THROUGH WISCONSIN. SOME OF THE OTHER SHORT-
RANGE MODELS HAVE WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS, HOWEVER THE
BETTER MOISTURE REMAINS WEST OF OUR CWA. THE MOST RECENT CAM RUNS DO
INITIATE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS WISCONSIN, HOWEVER THE EXACT
LOCATION IS NOT THE SAME. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THOUGH IN
CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEING THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING
RAIN. SIMILAR TO TODAY, DENSE SMOKE WILL BE IN THE AIR SO THAT COULD
LIMIT POP CHANCES. ADDITIONALLY, HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA SHOW RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS. THIS MEANS THAT WITH
THE LIFT AVAILABLE AND LOWER PWATS (AROUND 0.6 TO 0.75 IN),
INCREASED CLOUD COVER MIGHT BE THE OVERALL RESULT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THESE ARE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE
DENSE SMOKE. THE DENSEST SMOKE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD TODAY THEN MOVE
BACK EAST ON SUNDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH OF
THE SMOKE WILL BE LEFTOVER FOR MONDAY AND IF THAT WOULD BE LOWER OUR
FORECASTED HIGHS OF THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F. CURRENT NBM
PROBABILITIES DO HAVE A 30 TO 60% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES ARE AT
LEAST 88F WITH AROUND A 10 TO 20% CHANCE FOR 90F.
SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR TUESDAY
A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY WHILE A
CUTOFF LOW MOVES UP FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THESE TWO LOOK TO
PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER AROUND THE GREAT LAKES AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
IN CONJUNCTION WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL HELP TO DEVELOP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR, HOWEVER THAT DEPENDS ON
THE MORNING CONVECTION. IF ENOUGH OF A BREAK OCCURS AND THE
ATMOSPHERE CAN DESTABILIZE, THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE GET CLOSER.
EVEN THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN AT THE MOMENT, ONE THING
THAT MODELS ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS, BETWEEN THE 97-99.5 PERCENTILES OF THE NAEFS
CLIMATOLOGY, ARE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN, NORTHEAST
IOWA, AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE MOST RECENT LREF IS ALSO HONING
IN ON THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH A 60 TO 70% CHANCE OF
0.75" OCCURRING ACROSS THE CWA. SIMILAR TO THE LAST FORECAST, THE
TOP 25% OF THE INTERQUARTILE RANGE HAS OVER 1" WITH MOST LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 1.25 TO 1.4". EVEN WITH THIS HEAVIER RAINFALL, MINIMAL
IMPACTS TO RIVERS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
FRONT BEING PROGRESSIVE.
PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES, COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND AND LOWERS
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OCCURS ALLOWING FOR A FEW SHORTWAVES TO PASS
THROUGH AND BRING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. THERE ARE STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND TIMING OF THESE
SHORTWAVES HOWEVER, WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND AT
TIMES TO OUR NORTH, ANY RAINFALL WE DO RECEIVE WILL HAVE MINIMAL
IMPACTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
MAIN CHANGE TO THE TAF IS INTRODUCTION OF FEW CLOUDS AREA WIDE
DUE TO MID LEVEL SMOKE. GEOCOLOR SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITS THIS
WELL WITH GRAY THICK PLUMES OF ASH. MAY NEED TO BE BETTER
COLLABORATED FURTHER BASED ON HUMAN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THERE
COULD BE SOME FOG CONCERNS IN RIVER VALLEYS, DRY SURFACE AIR
LIMITS ANY CONFIDENCE AND EXTENT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...JAR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page