894
FXUS63 KARX 101130
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
530 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING BRINGING A BRIEF BURST
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. SNOW SHOWERS THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER INTO THE EVENING. EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS REMAIN LARGELY LESS THAN 1" ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
- MILD TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEW WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 30S TO UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO
SEASONABLE BY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT: LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING, A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS
WERE MOVING INTO THE DRIFTLESS REGION FROM THE WEST. VISIBILITIES
WITH THIS BAND OF SNOW HAVE RANGED FROM 1-4 MILES WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE
U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE MORNING WITH MOST PLACES BEHIND THE FRONT BY 8AM.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, AN UPPER LOW IS DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
CANADIAN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THESE UPPER SYSTEMS ARE
STARTING TO COME INTO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND WILL BE A KEY
DRIVER IN SNOW CHANCES LATER ON. ALONG WITH THIS SOUTHERN TROUGH, AN
AREA OF DEEPER MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI REGION,
CREATING AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. AS THIS INTERACTS WITH
THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE SNOW
CHANCES ACROSS SW WISCONSIN THIS MORNING AND KEEP THE BAND OF SNOW
INVIGORATED AS IT CONTINUES TO TREK EAST. THIS IS LARGELY WHY THE
HIGHEST EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS REMAIN EAST OF THE RIVER. ONCE THIS
FRONT MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST, CHANCES FOR SNOW BECOME A BIT MORE
NEBULOUS AND DISORGANIZED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
FORCING. WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A
LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY (UP TO 50 J/KG) ACROSS THE AREA LATER
TODAY, SIGNALING FOR A CHANCE OF SNOW SQUALLS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACTUALLY SEEING A TRUE SNOW SQUALL IS LIMITED AT
BEST, THERE WILL BE INSTANCES OF INTENSE BURSTS OF SNOW THAT MAY
CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SNOW-SQUALL-ESQUE
FEATURES MATERIALIZE. OVERALL SNOW TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE
CONTINUED TO TREND DOWN, LIKELY FROM THE LACK OF POST-FRONTAL
MOISTURE AND THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PHASED UPPER LOW.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW ONE
INCH WITH A FEW LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
WISCONSIN, POTENTIALLY SEEING NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE INCH DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING WRAP-AROUND SNOW SHOWERS. OVERALL,
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEXT WEEK: STARTING MILD, SEASONABLE MID-WEEK WITH RAIN/SNOW CHANCES
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WORK WEEK, CONDITIONS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ENABLE SOME WARM
ADVECTION TO GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA STARTING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
AND THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES ARE LOOKING TO TREND AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH MEDIAN
HIGHS IN THE NBM PROGGED TO REACH INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO UPPER
40S WITH TUESDAY LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS. THERE IS EVEN A
ROUGHLY 10 PERCENT CHANCE IN THE NBM THAT A FEW SPOTS COULD HIT
50 IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WI ON TUESDAY! OTHERWISE, A MORE
PROFOUND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT REINFORCING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME AND
BRINGING SOME RESPECTABLE COLD AIR ADVECTION ALONG WITH IT.
CONSEQUENTLY, TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S,
MORE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CONCERNED, THERE IS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. HOWEVER, MINIMAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PWATS GENERALLY UNDER 0.4" ACCOMPANIED WITH
THE OVERALL WEAK FORCING REGIME WOULD MAKE IT SEEM THAT
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS WAVE IS UNLIKELY AS THE GRAND ENSEMBLE
(GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) HAS VERY LOW PROBABILITIES (0-20%
CHANCE) FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE, AS
MENTIONED EARLIER, MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHICH WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH IT. AS
A RESULT, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE) HAS MORE FAVORABLE PROBABILITIES (30-70%) CHANCE) FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. OVERALL
P-TYPE WITH THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION ACROSS
OUR AREA WITH RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, BUT CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD ADVECTION WORKS THROUGH. EITHER WAY,
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE SNOW SEEM MODEST (40-70% CHANCE IN
THE GRAND ENSEMBLE) TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA BUT WOULD NOT FAVOR ACCUMULATIONS OF
1" OR GREATER AT THIS POINT (GENERALLY UNDER 20% CHANCE IN THE
GRAND ENSEMBLE). ADDITIONAL PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIKELY
MOVE THEIR WAY INTO THE LOCAL AREA FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY WHICH
WOULD FAVOR SNOW AS THE P-TYPE, HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS WITH THESE
CLIPPERS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING CREATING AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR
VISIBILITIES. OUTSIDE OF THIS SNOW BAND, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED
ACROSS THE REGION. THE BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO
WISCONSIN THROUGH THIS MORNING, LEADING TO DEGRADED CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES FOR A BRIEF TIME. BEHIND THIS SNOW BAND, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER BATCH OF MVFR CIGS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD, SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF
DEVELOPMENT HAS PROMPTED THE CONTINUATION OF THE PROB30S FROM
BEFORE. SHOULD CONFIDENCE IN THESE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
IMPACTING THE TERMINALS INCREASE, AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IN
THE FUTURE. CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING
THOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF A GENERAL WEST/NORTHWESTERLY
DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 20-30 KTS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS SHOULD TAPER OFF INTO
THE NIGHT BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT BETWEEN 10-20 KTS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE/NAYLOR
AVIATION...BARENDSE
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