865
FXUS63 KARX 221049
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
549 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ALONG WITH MORE SUMMER HEAT THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
THROUGH FRIDAY: BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH THE MAIN RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. TROUGHING SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DRY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOWER
80S BY FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK: SUMMER HEAT RETURNS ALONG WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL US SHOULD
SOLIDLY REMAIN IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL SURGE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE RETURN OF
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MAY LEAD TO SOME RAIN
CHANCES ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THAT SCENARIO IS NOT HIGH AT THIS TIME WITH BLENDED MODEL GUIDANCE
DEPICTING ONLY A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE AT RAIN THIS FAR OUT. THERE IS
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE RAIN POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SECONDARY MOISTURE PLUME MOVE
OVER THE REGION. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY BE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A
SEVERE STORM THREAT ON EITHER SATURDAY OR SUNDAY, HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL
CAPPING COULD BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE RIDGE.
THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND HOT TEMPERATURES MAY RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN CWA ON SUNDAY. THE LATEST LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES
ARE CERTAINLY HINTING AT THIS POTENTIAL WITH A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE
AT REACHING THE 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUE ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
JUST HOW HOT IT COULD GET ON SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON
CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE 22.12Z TAF PERIOD. VALLEY FOG
IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY WITHIN THE WISCONSIN (KOVS) RIVER AND
POTENTIALLY MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR THURSDAY MORNING. LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS AT THE CURRENT FORECAST
HOUR NEARING THE TERMINUS OF CURRENT TAF PERIOD OMITS INCLUSION
IN KLSE TAF.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MUSCHA
AVIATION...JAR
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