581  
FXUS63 KARX 190403  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
1100 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019  
 
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH TUESDAY. MID  
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY WITH LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A BROAD  
UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE STRONGER UPPER  
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND  
TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, SO SENSIBLE  
WEATHER IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL. ON TUESDAY 925 MB TEMPS WARM ABOUT  
2-3C FROM TODAY WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES.  
WITH ENOUGH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE, TEMPS IN SOUTHERN AREAS MAY TOUCH  
50. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME  
FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM  
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019  
 
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER SHORTWAVE  
DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES COULD BRING A FEW SNOW  
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE, RIDGING WILL  
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS MID-WEEK INTO THE START OF THE  
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS. HIGHS BY LATE WEEK  
WILL RISE INTO AT LEAST THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, POSSIBLY THE  
60S IN SPOTS. THIS MILDER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. AS A MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON  
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND, LOW TEMPS WILL  
ALSO INCREASE WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT NIGHT,  
HELPING TO EXPEDITE THE SNOWMELT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRY TO WORK  
EAST FROM THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH  
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN BY SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN  
HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES IS LOW, ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG UPPER  
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019  
 
CIGS/WX/VSBY: MOSTLY HIGH/THIN CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUE, WITH SOME  
INCREASE IN MID THEN POTENTIALLY LOW (MVFR?) FOR LATER TUE NIGHT.  
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL WED WITH A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTING SOUTH AND ANOTHER NORTH. COULD SEE SOME  
-SHRA AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS  
KEEPS THESE CHANCES NORTH AND/OR SOUTH.  
 
WITH LACK OF STRATUS LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING - FOG DEVELOPED.  
SEE SOME THREAT TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC ARE  
STRONGER AND THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH. MIGHT BE  
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP P6SM FOR NOW AND  
MONITOR.  
 
WINDS: GENERALLY LIGHT TONIGHT PICKING UP SOME FROM THE SOUTH TO  
SOUTHWEST BY LATE TUE MORNING.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019  
 
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON SOME MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
TRIBS, BUT MOST RIVER STAGES ARE ON THE DECLINE AS THE RUNOFF FROM  
LATE LAST WEEK WORKS THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEM. THE TREMPEALEAU  
RIVER AT DODGE, WI HOWEVER REMAINS NEAR MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AND  
RIVER LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK.  
ELEVATED/RISING STAGES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI THIS  
WEEK WITH MINOR FLOODING AT SOME LOCATIONS. ICE JAMS REMAIN  
POSSIBLE AS WELL. WARMING TEMPS THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL ACCELERATE  
MELTING SNOW AND RUNOFF OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK LEADING TO  
ADDITIONAL FLOOD CONCERNS.  
 

 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JM  
LONG TERM...JM  
AVIATION...WETENKAMP  
HYDROLOGY...JM  
 
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