843
FXUS63 KARX 180815
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
315 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COMPLEX SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS
POSSIBLY TWO WAVES OF STORMS ARE IN THE OFFING, WITH THE
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FIRST WAVE OF STORMS PLAYING INTO
HOW THE SECOND WAVE OF STORMS EVOLVES.
- LARGE HAIL UP TO 2-3" IN DIAMETER, DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 70
MPH, A FEW TORNADOES (SOME STRONG), AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE ALL ON THE TABLE WITH THESE STORMS.
- MUCH COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING
BELOW FREEZING STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME
HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE STUCK IN THE 40S. CAN'T RULE
OUT SOME FLURRIES ON SATURDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
TODAY - MONDAY: FLURRIES POSSIBLE TODAY, MUCH COOLER
AFTER A LONG WEEK OF SEVERE WEATHER, WE ARE FINALLY SET TO ENTER AN
OVERALL BENIGN PERIOD OF WEATHER. THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
SQUARELY OVERHEAD BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ENOUGH SATURATION IN THE
DGZ MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES ALONG AND NORTH
OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR LATER TODAY, OTHERWISE MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO DEPART TO THE EAST
TOMORROW, WE COULD SEE A LITTLE VORTICITY MAX SWING ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COOL TEMPERATURES, A
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER/DGZ, AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, MAINLY WEST OF THE
RIVER. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH EITHER ROUNDS OF
ACTIVITY.
THE MAIN POINT OF NOTE WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS TODAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 20-30+ DEGREES COOLER
THAN WHERE THEY WERE AT YESTERDAY, SITTING IN THE 40S AREAWIDE. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO LOOK AT THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. CURRENT 18.01 NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 DEGREES SIT AT 60-100% FOR TONIGHT AND 90-100%
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE RECENT ABUNDANCE OF
RAINFALL AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, A PARTIAL GREEN-UP HAS
OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. SURFACE FLOW FINALLY SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTH AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST,
ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS ON
MONDAY BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
TUESDAY - NEXT WEEKEND: WARMING UP, RAIN RETURNS
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES INTO MID-WEEK WITH 70+ DEGREE
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. YET ANOTHER
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST FOR MID-WEEK KEEPING CONDITIONS NICE AND DRY. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS, ABUNDANT SUNSHINE, AND
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH OUR NEXT
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKING TO COME LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST IN AN ATTEMPT TO REJOIN THE MAIN UPPER JET, PUTTING
OUR AREA IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
MOVE EAST. WITH GULF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THIS
SURFACE LOW, LIFT FROM ITS SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENDING WARM FRONT WILL
ALLOW FOR CHANCES OF RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION. FRIDAY WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED AS POTENTIALLY ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER DAY,
DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. IF THE
FRONT REMAINS JUST TO OUR WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, OUR AREA WOULD
BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH AMPLE FORCING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE. THIS FAR OUT, DETAILS ARE VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO NAIL DOWN
WITH ANY CERTAINTY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POSSIBILITY OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY COMING DOWN AND
BACKING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN GIVEN THE CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THESE AREAS HAVE ALREADY SEEN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST WEEK WITH MANY RIVERS EXPERIENCING SIGNFICIANT FLOODING
(ENOUGH TO CLOSE SOME ROADS IN MULTIPLE COUNTIES). A
WIDESPREAD 1/2 INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
1-2 INCHES--ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AND ONLY
EXACERBATE EXISTING PROBLEMS. MUDSLIDES ALSO LOOK TO BE A
PROBLEM AS WE HAVEN'T SEEN A FULL GREEN UP YET SO ROOTS HAVE NOT
TAKEN A STRONG HOLD YET. RIVERS ACROSS WISCONSIN ARE LIKELY TO
SEE ADDITIONAL RISES, ESPECIALLY THE KICKAPOO, YELLOW, BLACK,
AND WISCONSIN.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...BARENDSE
HYDROLOGY...BARENDSE
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