474
FXUS63 KARX 270000
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
700 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GOOD CHANCE (50-60%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A SMALL RISK FOR
STRONG WIND GUSTS. POTENTIAL (20-30%) FOR THE SAME EXISTS
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
2 SHOTS FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH RISK FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
16Z WV SATELLITE SHOWS A DISTURBANCE OVER CENTRAL MN WITH SOME
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SLOWLY CHURNING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER IA. AT THE SURFACE,
DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S, A SMALL STEP
UPWARD COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. 26.12Z RAOB AT MPX AND 26.00Z RAOB AT
DVN SHOW A SMALL UPTICK IN OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS
WELL WITH PWAT VALUES APPROACHING 1 INCH.
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, CENTRAL MN DISTURBANCE WILL ROLL EAST
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE IA UPPER RIDGE BEFORE AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF MN, LIKELY (60%) KICKING OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE NEARBY PRESENCE OF THE RIDGE,
FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN IS WEAK WITH LITTLE SHEAR, SO ORGANIZED
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER CELLS
WILL DEPEND ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. THAT SAID, 26.12Z HREF
DCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 750-925 J/KG WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER EXPECTED, SO A STRAY SEVERE WIND GUST COULD (5%) OCCUR.
THINKING SEVERE HAIL IS EVEN LESS LIKELY GIVEN RELATIVELY SKINNY
INSTABILITY PROFILES AND NO ROTATING UPDRAFTS TO INDUCE GREATER
RESIDENCE TIME FOR DEVELOPING HAILSTONES.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DIVES SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN MN. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS,
UPTICK IN FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A BIT MORE DEEP SHEAR - AROUND 25
KNOTS - SO CANNOT RULE OUT WEAKLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER,
PROGGED SOUNDINGS SHOW A RETURN OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
PREVENTED UPDRAFTS FROM SURVIVING ON MONDAY. THEREFORE, WHILE A
SEVERE GUST OR HAIL REPORT WOULD BE A BIT MORE PROBABLE SHOULD
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, THE OVERALL CHANCE TO GET A STORM AT ALL IS
LOWER (30%) COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
WHILE A BACKDOOR FRONT PUSHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THIS SHOULD
ONLY KNOCK THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE
MAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. AFTER A GOOD POST-FRONTAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT THURSDAY, WHEN SOME LOWER 40S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE CRANBERRY REGION OF WISCONSIN, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THROUGH
TUESDAY. EXACT VALUES ARE STILL IN A BIT MORE QUESTION THAN USUAL
GIVEN OUR PLACEMENT BETWEEN THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE AND PERSISTENT
EASTERN TROUGHINESS, BUT 26.13Z NBM INTERQUARTILE SPREAD
CONSISTENTLY COVERS THE AFOREMENTIONED RANGE. GIVEN OVERALL PATTERN,
IT APPEARS HIGHLY DOUBTFUL ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REACH THE CWA FOR
PRECIPITATION TO HAPPEN, EVEN ON DAYS WHEN THE RIDGE REMAINS FAR
ENOUGH WEST FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME PREDOMINANT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
ONGOING SCATTERED STORMS LACK CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL COVERAGE
OR DURATION INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SLOW PROPAGATION RESULTS IN
STORMS STRENGTHENING AND WEAKENING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. WHILE VFR
CURRENTLY FORECASTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE 27.00Z TAF PERIOD,
SIMILAR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL RETURNS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...JAR
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