729  
FXUS63 KARX 050319  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
1020 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
CLOUDS STUCK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING, BUT  
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NOW  
ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S  
AND 40S AS OF 2 PM.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH THIS EVENING  
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY INTO BROAD RIDGING ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED QUIET AND  
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON  
SUNDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE WILL USHER IN SOME WARMER  
AIR WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER  
60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO THE AREA AND A COUPLE BITS OF WEAK  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. WITH  
THE INCREASED MOISTURE, WE'LL ALSO HAVE AT LEAST A LITTLE  
INSTABILITY IN THE AREA, SO COULD HAVE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON  
MONDAY.  
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT  
WORKING NORTHWARD THROUGH AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S  
TO LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
MEANWHILE, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE  
DAKOTAS AND INTO MINNESOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE MOVING WEST TO EAST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE  
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW AND SLIDE THROUGH THE  
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED  
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES LOOK  
TO BE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT  
MOVES THROUGH, AND WITH 50 TO 60 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IN PLACE, CAN'T  
RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A  
STOUT CAP LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY PER GFS  
SOUNDINGS, BUT IT ALSO LOOKS TO ERODE AT LEAST SOME BY MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON, WITH THE FORCING OF THE WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT LIKELY  
BEING ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY REMAINING CAPPING.  
 
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER CANADA ON LATE  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND AND  
PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT DURING THE  
DAY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY  
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIP TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK  
AS VARIOUS LOBES OF PV ADVECTION WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT PUSHES  
INTO EASTERN CANADA. GIVEN THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO SPILL INTO THE  
AREA, SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES. EXPECT HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE  
MID 20S TO MID 30S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
CIGS: SKC/SCT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION  
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NOT EXPECTING CIGS TO  
SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE TAF SITES UNTIL SUN NIGHT, WITH MVFR/IFR  
AFTER 12Z MONDAY.  
 
WX/VSBY: NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.  
 
WINDS: LIGHT SOUTHEAST/VRB TONIGHT, PICKING UP JUST A BIT AND MORE  
SOUTHERLY FOR SUN.  
 

 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...CA  
LONG TERM...CA  
AVIATION...RIECK  
 
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