635
FXUS63 KARX 261745
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1245 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY: BEAUTIFUL LATE AUGUST WEATHER!
A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THIS
FEATURE. THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IS MOVING OVER THE AREA AT THIS
TIME, WHICH IS RESULTING IN CLOUD COVER INCREASING THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. JUST ENOUGH LIFT MAY BE PRESENT TO GENERATE
ISOLATED, LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN TOTALS WILL LIKELY
NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL NOT REMAIN OVER
ANY ONE LOCATION FOR VERY LONG. RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
ARE ONLY UPWARDS OF 20 PERCENT AND MAINLY FOR THE COUNTIES IN
WISCONSIN. THE CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM LAST NIGHT SHOULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS THE MAIN AXIS OF THE H500 RIDGE SLIDES EAST FROM OVER
THE ROCKIES TO OVER THE WESTERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS PATTERN IS NOT
VERY FAVORABLE FOR RAIN CHANCES, SO THE FORECAST IS DRY ON THURSDAY
AND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK: RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN
TROUGHING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA WITH ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH
ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO SUPPRESS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SITTING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS
OCCURS, MID TO LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WHICH WILL BRING POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION TO THE REGION.
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW SHOULD TRAVERSE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AND SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FORM AS A
RESULT. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCES IS VARIABLE IN
FORECAST GUIDANCE, SO COVERAGE OF ANY RAIN AND WHEN THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE ARE UNCERTAIN FOR NOW. THERE MAY BE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, BUT THAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON WHERE THE MAIN AXIS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SETS UP. THE
RAIN POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVER THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE HIGHLY CONTINGENT ON CLOUD COVER AND THE POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION, BUT DUE TO THE CONTINUED WARMING OF THE LOW
LEVELS, HIGHS COULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
LOW CLOUDS GENERALLY AROUND 3-4KFT HAVE MADE THEIR WAY INTO THE
REGION WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THESE LOWER CLOUDS, MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING WITHIN THE TYPICAL TROUBLE SPOTS
OVERNIGHT THOUGH INCREASED WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 1KFT SHOULD
LARGELY HINDER DEVELOPMENT. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY WITH ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUD
AROUND 5-6KFT DEVELOPING AGAIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MUSCHA
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page