111
FXUS63 KARX 110514
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1214 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST. STORM CHANCES INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY.
- LOCAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CONFIDENCE INCREASES MONDAY WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS INCREASING TO ALL HAZARD TYPES
FOR TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SATURDAY:
LOCAL PATTERN UNDERGOES CHANGES THROUGH SATURDAY AS CURRENT
ANTICYCLONIC INFLUENCE SHIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
RETURN FLOW INVIGORATES ENHANCED MOISTURE AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. RELATIVELY CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO INCREASED MOISTURE, WITH GOES-DERIVED 1" PWATS
OVER THE FLINT HILLS IN NORTHEAST KANSAS, FOURFOLD CURRENT
LOCAL 0.25" PWATS, RESULTS IN QUICKLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH, EXACT DEPARTURE TIMING OF CURRENT DRIER AIR DOES
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN INITIAL PRECIPITATION ONSET THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS IN SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA AS LOW
LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA. AS THE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE SPREADS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS, FORCING FOCUSES CLOSER TO THE
FORECAST AREA AND PRECIPTIATION CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
POTENTIAL ROUNDS OF STORMS SUNDAY:
INITIAL STORM CHANCES SUNDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
REACHES OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA FROM THE EXCITED LOW LEVEL
JET CAUSING QUASI-LINEAR ALBEIT MOSTLY CONGEALED STORMS TO
ADVECT NORTHEAST. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE
INSTABILITY AS OFF-SURFACE SHEAR VALUES PUSH 30+ KTS. WHILE A
SHORT WINDOW OF STRONGER STORMS REACHING SEVERE CRITERIA CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL HODOGRAPHS REMAIN MESSY,
SUGGESTING A LACK OF OVERALL ORGANIZATION. A SLOWER REALIZATION
TO SYNOPTIC PROGRESSION AND ACCOMPANYING FORCING FROM THE LOW
LEVEL JET WOULD INCREASE STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL AS HRRR
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ERADICATION OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR INVERSION
PERMITTING MORE CLOCKWISE, ORGANIZED LOOKING HODOGRAPHS.
WHILE CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOESN'T SHOW STORMS ALONG OUR
WESTERN PERIPHERY SUNDAY EVENING DUE TO DIURNAL CAPPING OF INCREASED
INSTABILITY, ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCE POTENTIALLY ALONG OUR WESTERN
PERIPHERY COULD OCCUR IN A LINEAR STORM MODE DUE A DRY LINE
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. SIMILAR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE
ALBEIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE REMAINS WEST OF THE LOCAL FORECAST
AREA, POTENTIALLY ON A WEAKENING TREND AS THEY APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD THEY FORM.
WIDESPREAD STRONG-SEVERE POTENTIAL MONDAY:
A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE IN STORM CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EXPECTED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TRANSIENT DRY SLOT PUNCHES EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MONDAY STORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS REINVIGORATES
MERIDIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, SPREADING 1000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY THE EVENING HOURS. CONCURRENT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ABOVE 9C/KM WITHIN THE ACCOMPANYING OPEN
WARM SECTOR.
CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND EXACT LOCATION LIMITED BY FORCING
MECHANISM AS SKY COVER MAY LIMIT DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF LOW
LEVEL INSTABILITY BUILDING THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. REGARDLESS,
A SHORT PULSE FROM A LOW LEVEL JET WITHIN BROAD WARM SECTOR IN
THE PHASING LOW LEVEL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE COULD PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR STORM INITIATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. CURRENT CONFIDENCE
IN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WHERE SEVERE STORMS FORM AS
ABILITY TO BECOME SURFACE BASED REMAINS IN QUESTION, SIMILARLY DEPENDENT
ON AMOUNT OF POTENTIALLY CLEARING SKIES.
WIDESPREAD STRONG-SEVERE POTENTIAL TUESDAY:
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES SEEN TUESDAY AS GEFS/GEPS SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST SIMILAR REINVIGORATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING SBCAPE TO 1500 J/KG / 3000 J/KG, RESPECTIVELY. THIS
RAISES CONCERN FOR ALL HAZARD TYPES ON TUESDAY SHOULD AS STORMS
POTENTIALLY BECOME SURFACE BASED AS LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR
MAGNITUDES PUSH 30KTS AT 0-1KM AND 0-3KM. LREF SOUNDING PLUMES
SHOW MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALTHOUGH ALL DO SHOW SOMEWHAT
OF A SLIGHT KINK, ALBEIT OVERALL LIMITED AGREEMENT AT LOWER
LEVELS; POTENTIALLY SUGGESTING INITIALLY SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
UNTIL CONGEALING UPON SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGGING EAST- SOUTHEAST
SHOULD STORMS INITIATE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY:
WHILE STORM CHANCES CONTINUE FOR WEDNESDAY, LONGER FORECAST HOUR AND
MULTITUDE OF PERTURBATIONS DISRUPTING THE OVERALL PATTERN LIMIT ANY
CONFIDENCE IN LOCAL IMPACTS. CONFIDENCE IN STORMS DECREASES COME
THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, BRINGING MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH
IT. THERE IS SOME CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME THUNDER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
SO HAVE ADDED PROB30S FOR THIS POTENTIAL AT THE TERMINALS AFTER
00Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-30 KTS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
POTENTIAL RECORD WARMTH MONDAY & TUESDAY (RECORD/FORECAST):
APRIL 13TH HIGH TEMP WARM LOW
----------- -------- -------
ROCHESTER, MN 83 (2023) / 76 59 (1941) / 56
LA CROSSE, WI 85 (2023) / 78 63 (1941) / 59
APRIL 14TH
----------
ROCHESTER, MN 87 (2003) / 80 56 (1976) / 59
LA CROSSE, WI 90 (2003) / 80 60 (1883) / 60
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...BARENDSE
CLIMATE...JAR
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