602
FXUS63 KARX 190530
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1130 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE (10 TO 25%) FOR RAIN SHOWERS MIDWEEK, OTHERWISE
MOSTLY DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, THEN A
SLIGHT WARMUP THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
TODAY-TUESDAY: NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15 TO 20%)
THIS WEEK:
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN/SNOW CONTINUES TO DWINDLE AS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA, THE MAJORITY OF SNOW FELL IN CLARK COUNTY AS THE MAIN
BAND OF SNOW STRETCHED BETWEEN HIGHWAY 10 AND HIGHWAY 29. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS LOW LEAVING THE AREA, SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN BUT
QUICKLY FLATTENS AND THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY. A SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES OVER THE AREA FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. LITTLE RIPPLES WORK THROUGH THE ZONAL
FLOW HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT MUCH, UP TO 10%. WITH
THE LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY THOUGH, LIGHT RAIN
OR DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THERE WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH SATURATION
AND ENOUGH LIFT FOR THIS TO OCCUR. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL THAT
AREAS THAT CLEAR UP ENOUGH TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, COULD
FOG OVER. THIS IS SOMETHING WILL WE WATCH AS WE END INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, TWO SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH ONE DIPPING DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
ANOTHER COMING UP FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE LATTER SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO BE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS NOW LOCATED IN
IOWA INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THE FIRST SYSTEM MENTIONED WILL BE THE
ONE TO WATCH TO SEE IF PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN GET SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THIS WAVE
GETS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND HOW STRONG THIS TROUGH IS. CURRENTLY
THERE A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THROUGH WISCONSIN AND BRING A
LITTLE MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH IT, ALLOWING FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
TO KICK OFF. WITH HOW LOW THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS, THERE IS NOT A
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON IF AND WHERE THE SHOWERS OCCURS. HAVE THEREFORE
KEPT THE NBM PRECIPITATION CHANCES OF 15 TO 25% FOR AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-94.
AFTER THURSDAY, ZONAL FLOW/SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND. MOST OF THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, HOWEVER THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE AT SOME SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A TROUGH
DIPS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE THEN FAVOR RIDGING OVER THE AREA FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH SOME INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD GO, THEY
START OUT NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY, THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S TO
THE LOW 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
AVIATION IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 19.06Z TAF PERIOD WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR CEILINGS OBSERVED AT TAF ISSUANCE.
DIURNAL COOLING DECREASING FLIGHT RULES OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING CAUSING FURTHER CONCERNS. HAVE DECREASED KRST
TAF INTO LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES BY 10Z FOR 06Z
ISSUANCE HOWEVER MAY REQUIRE FURTHER AMENDMENTS BASED ON ONGOING
OBSERVATIONS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ017-029.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...JAR
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