036
FXUS63 KARX 250732
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
230 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2023
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
- SOME THREAT FOR SNOW SUNDAY, BUT HIGHER CHANCES FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH.
- SEASONABLY TO COOL START TO NEW WEEK. PERIODIC PCPN CHANCES WITH
MORE MODEL CONSENSUS IN THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME.
* SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY? MAYBE...BUT MOSTLY CONFINED IN THE FAR SOUTH.
A RIPPLE IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TODAY, MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST TO ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z SUNDAY. WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTIVE
SIGNAL WITH THE SHORTWAVE, BUT A LITTLE BETTER FGEN SIGNATURE, WITH
DECENT WEST-EAST RUNNING 600:700 FRONTOGENESIS ON THE NORTHEAST OF
SHORTWAVE. IT'S VERY NARROW AND QUICK MOVING AND THE SHORT TERM AND
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ALL PRODUCE A NARROW STRIP OF PCPN...EITHER
RAIN OR SNOW, DEPENDING ON TIMING OF THE SYSTEM/LOCATION. FEATURES
LIKE THIS CAN LAY DOWN A QUICK 1 TO 3" OF SNOW. FERRETING OUT WHERE
THIS WILL TRACK IS THE CONUNDRUM WITH SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
HAVING DIFFERENT OPINIONS. ON THE WHOLE THOUGH, THERE IS A BIT MORE
CONSENSUS ON KEEPING THIS SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE LATEST RAP/HRRR. THE NAM IS THE FARTHER NORTH
MODEL WITH THE FEATURE AND COULD BE AN OUTLIER. WITH THIS IN MIND,
AND PER COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES, WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
"DRY" FOR NOW.
* SEASONABLE-COOL START TO NEW WEEK: PERIODIC PCPN CHANCES,
HIGHLIGHTING THE THU-FRI PERIOD
COOLER, CANADIAN AIR FLOWS ACROSS THE REGION POST THE DEPARTING
STORM SYSTEM TODAY, AND HANGS AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. GFS/EC 850 MB TEMPS HOVER MOSTLY AROUND
-4 TO -6 C. HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED, GENERALLY AT OR BELOW THE
LATE MARCH NORMALS. SHOULD SEE A BUMP UP IN TEMPS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
KICKS IN AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM THU/FRI.
AS FOR THAT STORM SYSTEM, THE GFS AND EC BOTH ARE KEEN ON DRIVING AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION THU-FRI. INITIALLY,
WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PCPN WOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, THEN WETTING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH/SFC LOW. TIMING/TRACK OF THE VARIOUS
FEATURES VARY BETWEEN THE MODELS, AND WITHIN THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS,
BUT THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OUTCOMES ALL SUGGEST A GOOD SHOT FOR PCPN.
TEMP PROFILES FAVOR MAINLY RAIN, BUT COULDN'T RULE OUT SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW AS THE SYSTEM EXITS. ANY RELATED SNOWFALL DOES
NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT (LOCALLY) AT THIS TIME.
THERE COULD BE A FEW, MORE MINOR LEANING CHANCES BEFORE THIS SYSTEM,
BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1031 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023
WINDS BACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL PASS TO THE SE EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH ILLINOIS.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT RST/LSE. LATER TODAY, WINDS BACK TO THE
NW AS A WEAK SYSTEM DROPS SE ACROSS MN. A MID- LEVEL BROKEN CEILING
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO RST BY LATE AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE (30%) FOR MVFR CEILINGS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIECK
AVIATION.....JAW
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