997
FXUS63 KARX 030528
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1128 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW, FREEZING DRIZZLE, AND DRIZZLE ARE
PROBABLE (30-65%) OVERNIGHT EARLY TUESDAY LEADING TO LOCALIZED
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS. WITH ODDS POINTING TOWARD LIGHT SNOW IN
AREAS WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT WOULD OTHERWISE SUPPORT
FREEZING DRIZZLE, WIDESPREAD IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY.
- THURSDAY BRINGS RAIN POTENTIAL (15-50%) TO THE REGION BUT THIS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE DRIFTLESS AREA.
- AT LEAST 1" OF RAIN STILL PLAUSIBLE (30-80%) FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. A POSSIBILITY (20-30%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
EVENING AS WELL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 816 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
SUBTLE WAVE OVER THE MO RIVER IS LEADING TO AN AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIP IN SE SD, SW MN, AND NW IA. OVERNIGHT, THIS PRECIP WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH THIS PROBABLE (30-65%) TO PERSIST INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. AS NOTED
EARLIER, RELATIVE BREAK IN CLOUDS IN CENTRAL IA EXTENDING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MN HAS LED TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES RIGHT AT
FREEZING FOR MOST SPOTS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS OF 8
PM WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS TO THE EAST REMAIN IN THE 33-39 RANGE.
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE 20S, WET BULB
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH MANY SHOULD STILL SNEAK ABOVE 32 AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE
JUST A TOUCH DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. ALL IN ALL,
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUPPORT NON-LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. GIVEN LOW LEVEL SATURATION AND THE RELATIVELY
WEAK FORCING OVERALL, AS EVIDENCED BY WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND THE
SUBTLE NATURE OF THE WAVE RESPECTIVELY, CONCERNS FOR IMPACT
FOCUS ON FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL. TREND ACROSS HRRR/RAP/RRFS,
WHILE SUGGESTING SURFACE WET BULBS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING AND THUS INTRODUCE FZDZ CONCERNS, ALSO SUGGEST DGZ
WILL BE SATURATED MUCH OF THE TIME THAT SUFFICIENT LIFT IS
OCCURRING FOR PRECIP TO FALL, LEADING TO LIGHT SNOW BEING THE
DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER IN THE
500-800MB LAYER WILL NEED TO BECOME MOSTLY SATURATED FOR THIS TO
PAN OUT, AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WHEN
COMPARING TO 03.00Z DVN/MPX RAOBS. THEREFORE, WHILE FREEZING
DRIZZLE MAY BE SEEN AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
RIVER AND DURING THE START OF PRECIP, THINK THAT WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS ARE DOUBTFUL. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT MENTIONS OF FZDZ IN
THE FORECAST BUT REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
RAIN LIKELY REMAINS SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN
BARRELS EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN IL/IN. 850MB MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING ENOUGH NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF FOR A
SHIELD OF PRECIP TO DEVELOP WITH PROGGED THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING
AN ALL-RAIN EVENT. FOR OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, 02.12Z TO 03.00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS/EC/NAM KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN TO OUR SOUTH/EAST.
GIVEN THIS, WAS TEMPTED TO CUT POPS FROM NBM VALUES BEFORE 00Z
FRIDAY. HOWEVER, 02.12Z LREF AND THE 02.12Z CMC SUGGEST ENOUGH
SUPPORT REMAINS TO HOLD ONTO A MENTION (15-50%) OF RAIN ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA WITH BEST CHANCES IN FAR SW WI. IN ANY CASE, AMOUNTS DO
NOT DRAW CONCERN, AS 03.01 NBM HAS ONLY A 10% CHANCE TO REACH 1" OF
ACCUMULATION AND THIS IS LARGELY LIMITED TO GRANT COUNTY WI.
RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAIN.
LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY WITH A
LEAD WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY
NIGHT. EXTENDED PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY MOIST ADVECTION WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS BEING IN PLACE - 02.12Z NAEFS PWATS
ARE ABOVE THE 99.5TH PERCENTILE OF MODEL CLIMATOLOGY. THUS, WHILE
THE OVERALL PATTERN IS PROGRESSIVE, 03.01Z NBM IS BULLISH FOR THIS
FAR OUT (30-80%) THAT A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA WILL SEE MORE THAN 1"
OF RAIN ACROSS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
ARE FAVORED TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, SOME REMAINING FROST IN THE
SOIL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RUNOFF AND SOME RISES ON CREEKS AND
STREAMS. AS FOR OTHER HAZARDS, 03.00Z GFS MUCAPE RISES TO AROUND 500
J/KG FRIDAY EVENING SO HAVE KEPT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. WHILE NOT
A BIG POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME, CSU GEFS ML GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN
OUTSIDE SHOT AT A SEVERE STORM, CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE - FOCUSING ON A
HAIL RISK - GIVEN STRONG FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO ROBUST DEEP SHEAR AND
SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA. AN AREA OF
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TOWARDS THE DRIFTLESS REGION.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS IN THE COMING HOURS.
CURRENT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A MIX OF
PRECIPITATION TYPES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THIS TREND IS GOING TO HOLD
AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA SO HAVE PULLED BACK ON ANY VISIBILITY
DEGRADATIONS FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY WITH MOST WEATHER
OUT OF THE TERMINALS BY 12Z. MVFR TO IFR CIGS WILL LINGER INTO
TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE STARTING TO SCATTER OUT AFTER 18Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD,
THOUGH SOME LOW CIGS (MVFR TO IFR) WILL LIKELY RETURN LATE
OVERNIGHT TOMORROW FOR THE KRST TERMINAL. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD OUT OF A GENERAL SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
UPDATE...FERGUSON
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...BARENDSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page