955
FXUS63 KARX 211149
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
549 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK HITTING ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SNOW AMOUNTS AROUND 1". INCREASING WINDS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD RESULT IN BLOWING SNOW
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA, WHERE MORE FRESH SNOW IS PRESENT AND THE STRONGEST WINDS
TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS SETTLE ACROSS
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
MORNING WIND CHILL VALUES OF -30 TO -45.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 418 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, POTENTIAL BLOWING SNOW.
ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE
WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DROPS OUT OF ALBERTA. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH THIS WAVE ALONG (HIGHLY RELATIVE) WARM
SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAD TO SFC-850MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9
C/KM. WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, AS
EVIDENCED BY ONGOING CLOUDINESS, SHOULD (75-100%) GET SOME SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH. GIVEN QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE,
THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE SHORT, LIMITING ACCUMULATION TO AROUND 1".
MAIN CONCERN WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY TO OCCUR WITH THEM AS 21.00Z HREF
DEPICTS 35-45 KNOT WINDS AT 850MB ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. PROGGED STRONGEST 850MB WINDS ARE GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF AN ALBERT LEA MN TO PLATTEVILLE WI LINE. GIVEN
THAT THIS INCLUDES LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED THE MOST SNOW TUESDAY, AM
CONCERNED THAT STRONG GUSTS WILL LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW AS NEW SNOW
FALLS, REDUCING VISIBILITY TO AS LOW AS A 1/2 MILE. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF NE IA WHERE
STRONGEST WINDS AND NEW SNOW ARE BEST CO-LOCATED, LEAVING OUT
CLAYTON/GRANT COUNTIES DUE TO LESS FAVORABLE TERRAIN AND TREE COVER
CHARACTERISTICS. THIS ADVISORY AREA ALSO COVERS WHERE WILL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR CONDITIONS EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO
DODGE/OLMSTED/MOWER/FILLMORE COUNTIES IN MN AS GUSTS TO 40 MPH MAY
(50% PER 21.00Z HREF) OCCUR THERE AS WELL AND SNOW COVER
CHARACTERISTICS ARE LESS CERTAIN.
DANGEROUS COLD ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR A SEASONABLE BUT STATISTICALLY
ANOMALOUS COLD OUTBREAK STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT, WHEN A SUB 500DAM
500MB UPPER LOW CHURNS SOUTHEAST OVER ONTARIO. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE BUILDING OVER ND, SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON FRIDAY MORNING SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR WINDS AROUND 10-15
MPH OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO PERSIST AS AIR TEMPERATURES PLUNGE WELL
BELOW ZERO (60-100% CHANCE TO DROP TO -10 OR LOWER). WIDESPREAD WIND
CHILLS UNDER 35 BELOW (PROBABILITY APPROACHING 100% PER 21.00Z LREF)
AREAWIDE APPEAR VERY LIKELY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, THE EXTREME COLD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WILL LIKELY MOVE TO A WARNING SOON GIVEN THESE
PROBABILITIES.
OF LOWER CERTAINTY IS HOW LONG THIS HIGHLY DANGEROUS COLD PERSISTS.
AIR TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT SATURDAY MORNING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH LOOKS TO BE CENTERED IN OR NEAR OUR CWA AND CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OCCUR AS A RESULT. GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS, WIND CHILLS
REACHING -25 ARE VERY LIKELY (80-95%) BUT -35 WILL BE TOUGHER
OUTSIDE OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES (15-60% SOUTH OF I-94). APPROACH OF
AN UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF (RELATIVE)
WARM ADVECTION AT 850MB AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS, HOLDING LOW
TEMPERATURES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY, HAVE ELECTED TO NOT EXTEND THE EXTREME COLD WATCH IN
TIME BEYOND NOON SATURDAY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING WIDESPREAD
MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY. POTENTIAL FOR LIFR ALSO EXISTS DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING AND IF LIFR WILL
AFFECT RST/LSE MEANS THIS HAS BEEN LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS.
LINGERING GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER SNOW ENDS WILL CAUSE
VISIBILITY TO CONTINUE TO BE REDUCES AS SNOW CRYSTALS ARE LOFTED
INTO THE AIR. AS WINDS DECREASE, VFR SHOULD RETURN TO THE
REGION.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR WIZ041>044-053>055-061.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-032>034.
MN...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ096.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-094-095.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR IAZ008-018-019-029.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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