248
FXUS63 KARX 130533
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1133 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. IF THE LOW LEVELS ARE ABLE
TO SATURATE FAST ENOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
(PROBABILITY UP TO 15 PERCENT) NORTH OF HIGHWAY 29 IN NORTH-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN OTHERWISE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SNOW
TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WOULD BE RAIN. THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (UP TO 30%) WILL BE IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING DRIER. CONTINUED THE
TREND OF LOWERING OR REMOVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE BRISK WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL
RANGE FROM 25 TO 40 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- THERE CONTINUES TO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW COLD IT WILL BE
THIS WEEKEND WITH LARGE SPREADS BETWEEN THE 10TH AND 90TH
PERCENTILES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THERE CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE 2 ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION WITH A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING EITHER LATE THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SATURATE. THE
SOONER THAT THIS OCCURS, THE BETTER CHANCE OF THERE BEING SOME
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. THE HREF PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST
0.01 INCHES OF FREEZING RAIN HAS DECREASED FROM 30-50 PERCENT IN
ITS 00Z RUN TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT IN ITS 12Z RUN NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 29 IN NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE 12Z BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT BY THE TIME THERE IS ENOUGH SATURATION FOR
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR, ICE CRYSTAL SEEDING FROM ALOFT SHOULD
BE OCCURRING AND THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW. LITTLE, IF ANY, SNOW IS EXPECTED.
THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. LIKE THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE HAS BEEN QUESTIONS ON WHETHER WE WILL ABLE
TO SATURATE THE AIR MASS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN OR NOT.
CURRENTLY THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT TO OCCUR IS ALONG AND NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 94. EVEN THEN, THE PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE
RAIN IS ONLY UP TO 30 PERCENT (HIGHER NORTH OF WISCONSIN 29).
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ANOTHER 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. WITH THIS WAVE
MOVING MORE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WERE REMOVED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THE NBM WINDS CONTINUE TO LOOK
TOO LIGHT FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, SO USED A 50-50 BLEND OF THE NBM
AND THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE TO RAISE BOTH THE SUSTAINED WINDS
AND WIND GUST. THE SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH
RANGE AND THE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 40 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN US. HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE
MANY QUESTIONS WITH THIS TROUGH, SUCH AS, HOW WILL IT BE
ORIENTATED, WHERE WILL BE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS TROUGH,
WHERE WILL THE COLDEST CORE BE LOCATED IN THIS TROUGH, ECT. AS A
RESULT, THIS IMPACTS THE STORM TRACK AND TEMPERATURES. THE
LARGEST 2 METER TEMPERATURE SPREADS OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. ON
SATURDAY, LA CROSSE HAS A SPREAD OF 14F FROM 0F FOR THE 10TH
PERCENTILE TO 14F FOR THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND ROCHESTER HAS A
SPREAD OF 16F FROM -5F FOR THE 10TH PERCENTILE TO 11F FOR THE
90TH PERCENTILE AT NOON. THE SPREADS FOR 2 METER TEMPERATURES
INCREASE EVEN MORE FOR SUNDAY. LA CROSSE HAS A SPREAD OF 31F
FROM -7F FOR THE 10TH PERCENTILE TO 24F FOR THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND ROCHESTER HAS A SPREAD OF 34F FROM -11F FOR THE 10TH
PERCENTILE TO 23F FOR THE 90TH PERCENTILE AT NOON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONTINUES TO
CENTER AROUND VERY LOW POTENTIAL (20%) FOR LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF AN EAU-MFI LINE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
PROBABILITY FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES TO DECREASE - SHOULD
ANY PRECIP OCCUR IN THIS AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, IT MAY
ACTUALLY FALL AS LIGHT SNOW INSTEAD. EXPECT LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR TO AFFECT VALLEY TERMINALS, INCLUDING LSE/ONA/PDC, FROM
AROUND 06Z TO AROUND 15Z WEST-NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS
UP ATOP LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. FOR RIDGETOPS, SURFACE
WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH HIGHER SPEEDS, PRECLUDING
MENTIONABLE LEVEL LLWS. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AFTER 18Z.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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