169
FXUS63 KARX 081122
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
522 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS MOVES INTO THE REGION TODAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN SNOW TOTALS AS THEY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHEN RAIN FULLY TRANSITIONS TO SNOW. AN EARLIER TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW COULD LEAD TO HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS (2+ INCHES) ACROSS
SE MINNESOTA AND NC WISCONSIN.
- THE SECOND WINTER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY.
THERE IS A 40-70% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW FOR THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
TODAY - FRIDAY: RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW
EARLY THIS MORNING, A 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, HEADING NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS DEEPENING IN THE LEE OF
THE COLORADO ROCKIES. ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY AROUND 00Z TONIGHT. WARM, MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS HAVE ALLOWED MANY LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE RIVER VALLEYS
TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S (SOME UPPER
40S POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SW WISCONSIN). AS THE SURFACE LOW STARTS
TO APPROACH THE AREA, PRECIPITATION WILL START TO MOVE IN FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING WITH POPS INCREASING STEADILY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MILD TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW ALL THIS
PRECIPITATION TO START AS ALL RAIN. WHILE WE'RE NOT EXPECTING
THESE RAIN SHOWERS TO BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE, THEY WILL PROVIDE
SOME MODERATE RAINFALL, WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PONDING AND
RUNOFF AS IT ENCOUNTERS FROZEN GROUND. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
SOME RIVER RISES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE JAMS DOWN THE LINE AS
ICE STARTS TO BREAK UP ON RIVERS THAT ARE CURRENTLY FROZEN.
CURRENT RAIN TOTALS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.25-0.75 INCHES WITH
LOCATIONS ACROSS NE IOWA AND SW WISCONSIN (CLOSER TO THE CENTER
OF THE LOW) SEEING BETTER CHANCES OF RAINFALL APPROACHING 1
INCH.
AS THE LOW STARTS TO DEPART FROM THE REGION, WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THIS LOOKS TO COMPLICATE MATTERS WHEN IT COMES
TO PRECIPITATION TYPE. 00Z HRRR/NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW A GENERALLY
ISOTHERMAL PROFILE IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE
COLUMN SATURATES. AS THE COLDER AIR FROM THE NORTH STARTS TO COOL
TEMPERATURES, THIS WILL LEAD TO A TRANSITION FROM ALL RAIN TO A RAIN
SNOW MIX. UNFORTUNATELY TEMPERATURES SEEM TO HOVER RIGHT AROUND THE
0 DEG C ISOTHERM FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE COOLING ENTIRELY BELOW
FREEZING AND TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW FOR MOST OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE A BEST GUESS TIME FOR THIS TRANSITION TO
A MIX TO OCCUR BETWEEN 8-10PM, STARTING ACROSS SE MINNESOTA AND
WC WISCONSIN BEFORE GRADUALLY EXPANDING EASTWARD. HOW MUCH SNOW
THAT ACCUMULATES WILL HEAVILY RELY ON WHEN THE TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW OCCURS AS THE RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL MELT ANY
ACCUMULATIONS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AS THE LOW MOVES OFF AND
THE FRONTOGENETIC (DEFORMATION) BAND STARTS TO WANE, PRECIP
WILL LIGHTEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS LEADING TO LOWER
ACCUMULATION TOTALS. SHOULD THE TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW START
EARLIER THAN CURRENT FORECASTS, SNOW TOTALS WOULD END UP BEING
HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT TRACE TO 1 INCH TOTALS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED FOR MOST (OUTSIDE SW WISCONSIN). PLACES MOST LIKELY TO
SEE TOTALS AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH WOULD BE SE MINNESOTA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN (30-60% CHANCE). THERE ARE SOME POSSIBILITIES
FOR 2+ INCHES IN THIS SAME AREA SHOULD THE TRANSITION HAPPEN
SOONER (10-30% CHANCE). 00Z HREF MEMBERS SEEM TO BE LEANING
TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY EARLIER TRANSITION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS,
LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN OVERALL TOTALS. AGAIN, THESE
TOTALS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY WE CAN COOL
BELOW FREEZING AND FULLY TRANSITION TO SNOW SO WE WILL BE PAYING
CLOSE ATTENTION TO SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS EVENING.
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY: ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW
IN CASE ONE WINTER SYSTEM WASN'T EXCITING ENOUGH, WE HAVE YET
ANOTHER ONE TO LOOK FORWARD TO RIGHT ON THE TAILS OF THIS FIRST ONE.
AS THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST, TWO MORE
TROUGHS WAIT IN THE WINGS: ONE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PLAINS AND THE OTHER ONE THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES.
THESE WILL BOTH MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY, COMING INTO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE ABUNDANT SYNOPTIC LIFT
FROM THE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOWS, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE,
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT, AN AREA OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION STARTING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
OVERALL TOTALS HAVE COME DOWN SOME FROM YESTERDAY GIVEN THAT THE
SURFACE LOW AND THE BULK OF LOW LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL DISPLACED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW, LIKELY FORMING IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF AN ENHANCED 500 MB JET MAX ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TRACK OF
THE SURFACE LOW WILL LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL ACROSS OUR
AREA. CURRENT FORECAST TOTALS GENERALLY RESIDE IN THE 1-3 INCH
RANGE, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS EAST OF THE RIVER IN WISCONSIN.
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING 2+ INCHES OF SNOW HAVE DROPPED BELOW 50%
FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA (APART FROM JUNEAU/ADAMS COUNTIES IN
OUR FAR EAST). ENSEMBLE OUTLIERS IN THE EC/GEFS HAVE ALSO COME
DOWN WITH NO SOT BEING SHOWN ANYMORE WITH THE EFI. THIS IS
LOOKING LESS 'BOOM OR BUST' SNOW EVENT AND MORE LIKE A NORMAL
MIDWEST WINTER SNOWFALL. THIS SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHTER/FLUFFIER THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE 100-150 MB RESIDENCE TIME
IN THE DGZ LENDING TO HIGHER SNOW RATIOS (15-18:1). AS THE
UPPER LOW SLIDES TO THE EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SNOW
SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY.
SUNDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK: COOLER TO START, DRIER
WE'LL GET A SHORT BUT MUCH NEEDED BREATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WE
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER
LOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY DRY WITH COOLER BUT STILL NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 20S. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RETURNS BY MONDAY, BRINGING HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION RETURN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. COOLING TEMPERATURES
MEAN THIS COULD BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX BUT ITS STILL EARLY AND MANY
DETAILS ARE CERTAIN TO CHANGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST THU JAN 8 2026
CIGS REMAIN LARGELY VFR ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME MVFR TO LIFR
VISIBILITIES FROM FG/FZFG PRESENT (MAINLY ACROSS WC WISCONSIN).
VISIBILITIES WILL START TO IMPROVE LATER THIS MORNING WITH BOTH
TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE AT VFR FOR A TIME. RAIN WILL THEN MOVE
IN FROM THE SOUTH, IMPACTING THE TERMINALS STARTING IN THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS WILL BRING DEGRADED VISIBILITIES (MVFR TO IFR) AND
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED CIGS (IFR TO LIFR) ACROSS THE AREA. LATER
THIS EVENING, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW,
STARTING ACROSS SE MINNESOTA AND WC WISCONSIN BEFORE SPREADING
EAST. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD BE MORE NOTICEABLE AT THE KRST
TERMINAL WITH A BEST GUESS ON THE PRECIP CHANGEOVER TIMING MADE
FOR THIS PACKAGE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD WANE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH BOTH SITES LIKELY DRY BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO BETWEEN 10-20 KTS BY
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR WIZ017-029-
032>034.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...BARENDSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page