711
FXUS63 KARX 290548
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1148 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OTHER THAN A FASTER CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN AND SNOW THIS
MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON, THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
FORECAST FROM THIS MORNING. THIS ONLY IMPACTED THE OVERALL
SNOW TOTALS BY UP TO 1 INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
- AS NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH
GUSTS OF 35 TO 50 MPH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER BY MID-AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
- WILL BE WATCHING WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING TO SEE WHETHER
THERE WILL BE A NEED FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING THERE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
AT 12 PM, A 996 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER WEST-CENTRAL
MISSOURI. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTHEAST OF THIS SURFACE LOW
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THIS FRONT IS MOVING EAST ABOUT 1 TO 2
HOURS FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST, SO THE PRECIPITATION IS
CHANGING A BIT FASTER FROM RAIN TO SNOW WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. THIS RESULTED IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1
INCH ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.
THE RADAR FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A DEVELOPING
DEFORMATION BAND AS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DEVELOP FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA NORTHEAST TOWARD ST CLOUD AND THE
TWIN CITIES. MANY OF THE CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS DEFORMATION BAND WILL BECOME MORE
ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON AND IT WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST FROM
OMAHA NE TO DODGE CENTER MN AND THEN TOWARD GREEN BAY, WI. WITH
BANDED STRUCTURES SHOWING UP ON THE RADAR AND WHAT IS SHOWING UP
IN THE LATEST HREF, EXPECT HOURLY SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 1 INCH
AN HOUR IN THIS BAND. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON
AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FRONTOGENESIS ONCE AGAIN
INCREASES THIS EVENING FROM OWATONNA MN TO THE TWIN CITIES TO
MEDFORD. THESE AREAS LOOK TO SEE ANYWHERE FROM 5 TO 9 INCHES
FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN WABASHA COUNTY (MN) AND NORTHERN
BUFFALO AND TREMPEALEAU (WI) COUNTIES DUE TO HOW THE DEFORMATION
BAND PIVOTS OVER THAT AREA (LONGER RESIDENCE IN THE HIGHER SNOW
RATES).
DURING THE OVERNIGHT, THE DEFORMATION BAND STARTS TO SLOW SHIFT
SOUTHEAST AND MOVES OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IN WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN.
THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 20 TO 35 MPH RANGE AND
THE WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 35 TO 50 MPH RANGE. WITH
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 15-20 TO 1 FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, THE SNOW WILL BE VERY EASY TO MOVE. AS A RESULT,
THE BLIZZARD WARNING STILL LOOKS TO BE GOOD ACROSS NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THERE WAS SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT
POSSIBLY UPGRADING THE WINTER STORM WARNING INTO WISCONSIN TO A
BLIZZARD WARNING. HOWEVER, THE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS (13-17 TO
1) ARE A BIT LESS THERE. IF THERE WAS TO BE AN UPGRADE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT, IT WOULD BE FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 AM
TIME FRAME.
TUESDAY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH, EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. AS IT DOES, WARM
AIR ADVECTION SNOW WILL LIKELY FALL ACROSS MUCH OF WISCONSIN.
PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW TOTALS OF A HALF-INCH OR MORE RANGE FROM 10
TO 50 PERCENT ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE 20S.
NEW YEARS EVE
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST, BUT THIS TIME IT IS
MUCH FURTHER WEST AND ITS WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW COVERS MUNICH
OF OUR AREA. THE PROBABILITIES OF A HALF-INCH OR MORE RANGE FROM
25 TO 50 PERCENT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEING FURTHER
WEST, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER RANGING FROM THE
MID-TEENS TO MID-20S.
NEXT WEEKEND
THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREED IN THE GRAND ENSEMBLE ON WHETHER
A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND IF IT DOES, HOW
FAR WEST WILL IT EXTEND. 23 PERCENT OF THE GRAND ENSEMBLE KEEP
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DRY. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER 14
PERCENT OF THE GRAND ENSEMBLE HAS UP TO A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
A HALF-INCH OR MORE OF SNOW. THE REMAINING MEMBERS ARE BETWEEN
THESE 2 POTENTIAL OUTCOMES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
GUSTY WEST NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS A
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHIFT AWAY THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BUT EXPECT POCKETS OF BLOWING
SNOW TO CONTINUE IN EXPOSED AREAS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING CEILINGS TO REMAIN AROUND 1000FT THROUGH 18Z ACROSS
THE AREA, BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO SCATTER FROM WEST TO EAST. LIFR
VIS AND MVFR CEILINGS BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ017-029-033-
034-041>044-053-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR WIZ055-061.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR WIZ032.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ086-087-094-095.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ096.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ079-088.
IA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR IAZ008>010-018-019-
029.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ011.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR IAZ030.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...JAW
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