903
FXUS63 KARX 302355
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
655 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING IN FAYETTE AND CLAYTON
COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST IOWA, AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
WISCONSIN. THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE COUNTIES MAY SEE
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS.
- CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN MAY SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FROST ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
THE REMNANTS FROM HURRICANE POLO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH IOWA,
NORTHERN ILLINOIS, AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF WISCONSIN TONIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LATE TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY CLIMB AND RANGE
FROM 2 TO 2.25 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN IOWA, NORTHERN
ILLINOIS AND FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES IN LA CROSSE, AND AROUND 1 INCH NEAR BLACK
RIVER FALLS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY FALL FROM OMAHA, NE
TO DUBUQUE, IA TO GRAND RAPIDS, MI. MEAN RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES. THE 24-HOUR QPF ENSEMBLE
LOCALIZED PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEANS ARE AS HIGH AS 7 INCHES.
THESE MAY IMPACT FAR SOUTHERN FAYETTE AND CLAYTON COUNTIES IN
NORTHEAST IOWA AND GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. RAINFALL
TOTALS QUICKLY DECLINE AS YOU MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD TO LA
CROSSE WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM A QUARTER-
TO HALF-INCH AND ONLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH NEAR INTERSTATE
94. AS THE SURFACE WAVE MOVES QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING, THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL QUICKLY
DROP AND THE RAIN WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. MOST AREAS SHOULD
HAVE A DRY AFTERNOON.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-50S TO MID-60S.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID- TO UPPER 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S ON FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S ON THURSDAY NIGHT, AND FROM THE MID-
30S TO MID-40S ON FRIDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH
ON FRIDAY NIGHT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FROST IN CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA FROM LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT COULD PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-60S
ON SATURDAY, AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-40S TO
LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID-60S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S TO MID-40S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS. THE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FROST IN CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-
40S TO MID-50S ON TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR TO IFR CIGS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BATCH OF
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO TOMORROW SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY NORTH OUT OF EAST
CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING. THIS WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE COMING HOURS WITH CIG AND
VISIBILITY DEGRADATION FOLLOWING SHORTLY. IFR/LIFR CIGS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD IMPACT MOST OF THE AREA INCLUDING BOTH OF THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
ELEVATED IN SPEED ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE FOG FROM BECOMING DENSE BUT
PATCHY AREAS OF 1 MILE VISIBILITY OR SLIGHTLY LESS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING. CONDITIONS
AT THE TERMINALS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH CIGS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR AND RAIN PUSHING
OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION, BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH IT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...BARENDSE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page