285
FXUS63 KARX 142334
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
534 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK.
- TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MAY BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
(10-40% FOR A 45 MPH GUST) AND WILL LIKELY (35-85%) BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION MAINLY LOOKS TO BE
RAIN ASIDE FROM NORTH OF I-94, WHERE SNOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE AND
FREEZING RAIN IS A REMOTE (10%) POSSIBLITY AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
ANOMALOUS WARMTH CONTINUES
BROAD RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TODAY WITH
THE AXIS OF THIS RIDGE SLIDING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AS OF 19Z. IN
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN HEIGHTS ALOFT IS
EXPECTED FOR TODAY DUE TO A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER KS AND THEN
AGAIN TOMORROW AS A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE, CURRENTLY SEEN IN WV
SATELLITE OVER MT, ADVANCES DOWNSTREAM OVER WI. BY MONDAY, HEIGHTS
ALOFT SHOULD RISE ONCE MORE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER E TX. WITH
WINDS AT THE SURFACE MONDAY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY DUE TO A SURFACE
HIGH BUILDING IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND LEE TROUGHING STARTING TO
DEVELOP TO OUR WEST, THE END RESULT SHOULD BE A SLIGHT PAUSE IN THE
WARMING TREND FOR SUNDAY BEFORE THE UPWARD TREND RESUMES MONDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S POTENTIALLY (15-50%) OCCURRING SOUTH OF I-90,
PARTICULARLY IN SW WI. GFS/EC/CMC SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON INCREASING
CLOUDS AND DOMINANT EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS TUESDAY AS A STRONG LEE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN WY/SD/NE WITH HIGHS IN THE 45-55 RANGE
FAVORED PER 14.13Z NBM INTERQUARTILE VALUES.
POTENTIAL FOR NOTABLE WIND AND PRECIP TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
TUESDAY, STRONG UPPER TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE ROCKIES WITH A
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER JET ADVANCING OVER THE FRONT RANGES. LEE
CYCLOGENESIS IN MT/WY/SD/NE LOOKS TO OCCUR AS A RESULT.
STRENGTHENING SURFACE GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WILL LEAD TO
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT (10%) FOR A 45 MPH GUST
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WITH THE UPPER JET ADVANCING OVER
IA, SURFACE LOW IS FAVORED TO TRACK THROUGH MN INTO N WI. SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE GULF LOOKS TO BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIP DEVELOPING ON THE EASTERN AND ESPECIALLY NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, WESTERLY
850MB JET OF POTENTIALLY (35-45% PER 14.12Z LREF) GREATER THAN 40
KNOTS SETS UP ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE, LEADING TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
POTENTIAL (10-40% PER 14.13Z NBM) FOR A 45 MPH GUST ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST PRECIP, PLACEMENT OF
STRONGEST WINDS, AND PRECIP TYPE LARGELY COME DOWN TO PLACEMENT OF
THE UPPER LOW. BROAD AGREEMENT ACROSS GUIDANCE MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION CONTINUES WITH THE 14.12Z CYCLE, WHERE 80% OF MEMBERS
ACROSS GFS/CMC/EC ENSEMBLES HAVE A MORE NORTHERN TRACK, PLACING MORE
OF THE CWA AT RISK FOR THOSE 45 MPH GUSTS DISCUSSED ABOVE AND
FOCUSING PRECIP ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. ADDITIONALLY, THIS SOLUTION
WOULD BE WARMER OVERALL, ALLOWING MORE OF THE AREA TO SEE ONLY RAIN
WITH SOME SNOW MIXED IN NORTH OF I-94 AND, CRUCIALLY, KEEP RISK OF
FREEZING RAIN OUT OF THE AREA. SHOULD THINGS TREND TOWARD THE MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK (20% OF MEMBERS), IN ADDITION TO MORE SNOW POTENTIAL
WOULD NEED TO MONITOR FOR FZRA POTENTIAL, AS 14.12Z LREF JOINT
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIP, BELOW FREEZING SURFACE TEMPS, AND ABOVE
FREEZING 850MB TEMPS DO REACH 40% IN CLARK/TAYLOR COUNTIES IN THIS
SCENARIO.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A
10-20% CHANCE OF IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES NORTH OF AN EAU TO ISW
LINE BETWEEN 06-15Z TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD
AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
HERE ARE SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER FROM FEBRUARY 15 THROUGH
FEBRUARY 16.
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 15
(RECORD/FORECAST):
HIGH TEMP
----------------------------------------
ROCHESTER, MN 49 (1931) / 51
LA CROSSE, WI 65 (1921) / 48
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16
(RECORD/FORECAST):
HIGH TEMP
----------------------------------------
ROCHESTER, MN 59 (1931) / 52
LA CROSSE, WI 60 (1921/1981) / 53
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARM LOWS MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16
(RECORD/FORECAST):
WARM LOW TEMP
----------------------------------------
ROCHESTER, MN 35 (1931) / 38
LA CROSSE, WI 40 (1981) / 35
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...SKOW
CLIMATE...FERGUSON
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