248
FXUS63 KARX 190748
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
248 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORMS CHANCES FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE AHEAD A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO OUR SOUTH, NOT MUCH IF ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A SMALL BREAK IN BETWEEN THE STORMS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT AND THE COLD FRONT ITSELF, WHICH WOULD HAVE A LINE OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 09
AND 14Z.
COOLER AND DRY FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE CWA
UNDER DRY CONDITIONS AND WITH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON THE EDGE OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO POTENTIALLY THE MID 30S FOR
PORTIONS OF CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY
AREAS OF FROST WITH THESE LOW TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE
THAT PUSHES NORTH FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, HOWEVER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON IF WE GET ANY PRECIPITATION FROM IT. CURRENTLY
THE LREF GIVES A 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL TO OCCUR.
PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS BOTH FAVOR THE UPPER-LEVEL
PATTERN REMAINING IN THE ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. DURING THIS SAME
TIME PERIOD THERE ARE A FEW DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST THAT INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP INTO THE LOW 80S AS SOME SOUTHWEST
FLOW RETURNS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
STRONG WINDS IN THE WAKE OF EXITING PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT
EAST, GUSTING 40KT AT KLSE AT 19.06Z TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR-IFR
CEILINGS SEEN OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, AFFECTING BOTH KLSE AND KRST TAF SITES.
AVIATION IMPACTS LIFT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...JAR
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