524
FXUS63 KARX 212343
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
643 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES LOOKING LESS FOR THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
- UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FOR THE TEMPERATURES FROM MEMORIAL DAY
INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
THERE IS LESS PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. AS A RESULT, THERE IS A SPLIT NOW SHOWING UP
IN THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS IN THE PRECIPITATION.
THEY ARE NOW SHOWING THAT THE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS MAINLY WEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER WEAK (GENERALLY LESS THAN 250
J/KG) THROUGH THIS PERIOD. IN ADDITION, THE 0-3 AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
IS ONLY UP TO 20 KNOTS. AS A RESULT, NOT EXPECTING ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER.
MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. THESE BUILDING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE-
TO WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION.
IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE WE WILL LIKELY EXCEED THE 85TH
PERCENTILE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID- TO UPPER 80S.
LIKE YESTERDAY, THERE IS STILL A CONCERN THAT A TROUGH SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA. IF THIS OCCURS,
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE MORE IN THE 60S AND 70S AND THERE WOULD BE A
THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS IS WHY THERE CONTINUES TO BE
LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREADS IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD. UP IN THE OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS IN THE
PRECIPITATION. THEY ARE NOW SHOWING THAT THE BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS MAINLY` WEST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA FROM
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER BKN-OVC
SKIES. CEILING HEIGHTS SIT AROUND 10KFT THIS EVENING, BUT BEGIN
TO LOWER TOWARDS 8KFT OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS 5KFT TOWARDS FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, GENERALLY 5-10KT OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE FRIDAY
MORNING, BRINGING GUSTS OF 20-25KT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL POTENTIAL BEGINS TO INCREASE FOR THOSE WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
WITH AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-AND UPPER 70S AND AVERAGE
LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, THIS LOOKS
TO BE WARMEST MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND SINCE 2023.
THERE IS CONCERN THAT WE COULD SEE THE AREA RAPIDLY DRY OUT AS THE
HEAT RETURNS TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK. FOR THE MONTH OF MAY, ROCHESTER
HAS ONLY RECEIVED 0.55 INCHES (CURRENTLY THE 2ND DRIEST MAY AND THE
DRIEST SINCE 1934) AND LA CROSSE HAS ONLY RECEIVED 1.02 INCHES
(CURRENTLY THE 7TH DRIEST MAY - DRIEST SINCE 1988).
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
CLIMATE...BOYNE
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