333
FXUS63 KARX 230541
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1241 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
- FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
TONIGHT
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THINKING THAT THE 22.12Z MODELS ARE TOO
FAST AT CLEARING THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WITH SKIES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY LONGER, ADJUSTED THE LOW TEMPERATURES
TOWARD THE WARMER CONSSHORT. THIS RESULTED IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER 30S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IN THE LOWER AND MID-
30S ELSEWHERE. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER, NOT
PLANNING ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FROST ADVISORY.
THURSDAY
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MODELS ARE
TOO FAST AT CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE
CASE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE CLOUDS
COULD RESULT IN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS ON THURSDAY.
AT THIS TIME, DIDN'T DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES.
THURSDAY NIGHT
TH 925 AND 850 MB RIDGE BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT
IN THE SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S (MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER TEENS IN CENTRAL
WISCONSIN) TO THE LOWER 30S. AS A RESULT, WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO
ISSUE FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EITHER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST. THIS IMPACTS WHEN RAIN MAY RETURN TO THE
AREA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE FASTEST AND IT MOVES RAIN INTO THE
AREA AS SOON AS SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEPS
THE AREA MAINLY DRY THROUGH THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD,
ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS OF 1.5-2.5KFT MAY LINGER FOR LOCATIONS
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH MUCH THURSDAY. WINDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST, GENERALLY
5-10KTS, AND DIURNAL CUMULUS OF 3-4KFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN ALSO
EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 IN
WISCONSIN (10-20%), BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ032-033-
041>044-053>055-061.
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-
094>096.
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-
019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
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