274
FXUS63 KARX 131000
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
400 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOMALOUS WARMTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S. NEAR RECORD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN BY MID NEXT WEEK
(40-70%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT
OVERALL QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
REMAINS THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS OUR AREA. PRIMARILY
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY, RESULTING IN 925HPA TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO AROUND 6-8C PER THE 13.00Z HREF. VERY LITTLE
VARIATION IN THE 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE SPREAD OF THESE 925HPA
TEMPERATURES LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL TRANSLATE
TO SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND TO JUST ABOVE 50F THIS
AFTERNOON VIA DIURNAL MIXING UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
SPECIFICALLY FOR THOSE SOUTH OF I-94. THE LINGERING SNOWPACK
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 IS EXPECTED TO MODIFY THE AIRMASS ENOUGH
TO LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 40S. GIVEN THE ABNORMAL WARMTH, NEAR RECORD
TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AT ROCHESTER AND LA
CROSSE TODAY.
AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALONG WITH
A TRANSIENT LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT, PRIMARILY FOR THOSE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE 13.00Z HREF/REFS HIGHLIGHT 40-60%
PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITIES FALLING BELOW 1 MILE GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY AS DAYTIME HEATING GETS GOING.
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE SITUATED
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE NEW WEEK.
BOUTS OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARE DEPICTED TO GRAZE THE REGION
IN THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE, BUT AN OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE
WILL INHIBIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH
PERIODS OF CLOUDS EXPECTED INSTEAD.
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS CHANGE IS EXPECTED UNDER THIS RIDGE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY,
ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS RESULTS IN TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID-WEEK GENERALLY 20-25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, SUPPORTED BY THE 13.00Z EFI, WHICH
CONTINUES TO SHOW MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
80TH-90TH PERCENTILE ABOVE MODEL CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS OUR AREA.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE
EXPECTED.
THIS ABNORMAL WARMTH LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD TO
RECORD TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXPECTED CLOUD
COVERAGE MAY MODERATE DAYTIME HIGHS ENOUGH SUCH THAT RECORD WARM
LOWS ARE MORE FAVORED TO BE BROKEN.
PRECIPITATION MID NEXT WEEK
A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO THE DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION
OF A STRONG JET CORE THAT IS PROGGED TO STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES. LATITUDINAL AND TEMPORAL
VARIATIONS OF THESE FEATURES AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLES THEMSELVES (GEFS/EPS/GEPS) LIMITS CONFIDENCE
IN THE IMPACTS THAT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE
OVERALL SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE MAJORITY OF
SAID MEMBERS. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 13.01Z NBM
SOLUTION, WHICH CURRENTLY PAINTS BROAD POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA, GENERALLY 40-70%, HIGHEST NORTH
OF I-94.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A 30-50 PERCENT CHANCE OF A FEW HOUR WINDOW
OF IFR/LIFR FOG IN NORTHEAST IOWA TOWARDS SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AROUND OR LESS THAN 5 KTS TONIGHT, VEERING TO THE WEST AT
SIMILAR SPEEDS FOR FRIDAY.
THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK (30-40%) OF IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPING
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON FRIDAY, MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A RGK TO DLL
LINE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT COVERAGE AND THICKNESS OF THE
FOG IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 13 (RECORD/FORECAST):
HIGH TEMP
----------------------------------------
ROCHESTER, MN 47 (1919) / 50
LA CROSSE, WI 53 (1921) / 51
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...SKOW
CLIMATE...FALKINHAM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page