045
FXUS63 KARX 312344
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
544 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING SNOW THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
EVENING. ACCUMULATION OF AROUND 1-2" IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
- MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ABOVE FREEZING HIGHS FAVORED (60-90%) THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL
FLURRIES MAY OCCUR WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE NOTABLE
PRECIPITATION APPEARING TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
LIGHT SNOW AHEAD SUNDAY
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AN UPPER WAVE OVER NE MT BREAKS
SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THIS FEATURE OVER N
CENTRAL IA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY. WHILE SNOW ONSET MAY BE DELAYED BY
VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS - AS
EVIDENCED BY THE 31.12Z MPX RAOB - LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE AND FROM RESPONSE TO THE UPPER JET OVERSPREADING THE
DAKOTAS, NE, AND WESTERN IA SHOULD LEAD TO MID LEVEL SATURATION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE DGZ AND, CONSEQUENTLY, LIGHT SNOW MUCH LIKE WHAT
IS SEEN IN THE DAKOTAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THIS SAME UPPER
WAVE. LIFT MAY BE ENHANCED EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BY TRANSIENT
700/850MB FRONTOGENESIS BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD TAKE A STEP DOWN IN INTENSITY IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE PICKING UP AGAIN AS A SECONDARY WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT SAID,
AMOUNTS WITH THE SECOND WAVE LOOK TO BE MINIMAL AS ADDITIONAL
FORCING VIA JET DYNAMICS AND FRONTOGENESIS DO NOT LOOK TO BE PRESENT
WITH THIS ROUND. THUS, SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, WITH AROUND
1-2" SUPPORTED BY THE 31.12Z HREF MEAN AND 31.13Z NBM MEAN. GIVEN
THIS LOW AMOUNT BUT HIGH PROBABILITY EVENT, HAVE GONE NOTABLY HIGHER
THAN THE TYPICALLY LOW-IN-THIS-SCENARIO NBM POP VALUES (MOST
AREAS CLOSER TO 100% RATHER THAN 30-80%) USING OTHER SHORT TERM
CONSENSUS VALUES.
ASPECT TO WATCH FOR A BIT MORE IMPACT IS POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT (1-3)
HOUR PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
INTENSITY SNOW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MID
LEVEL DESCENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE INITIAL UPPER WAVE MAY LEAD TO
LOSS OF SATURATION IN THE DGZ BEFORE CAA IN THE LOWER LEVELS ALLOWS
FOR ICE CRYSTALS TO FORM THERE RATHER THAN IN THE 600-700MB LAYER.
SHOULD THIS LOSS OF SATURATION OCCUR WHILE THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN
SATURATED AND LOW LEVEL LIFT CAN BE MAINTAINED, FREEZING DRIZZLE
WOULD OCCUR. LOOKING ACROSS PROGGED SOUNDINGS, LOCATIONS AND TIMES
WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOSS OF MID LEVEL SATURATION, LOW LEVEL
SATURATION WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE -10C, AND LOW LEVEL LIFT APPEAR
VERY LIMITED WITH THE POTENTIAL EXCEPTION OF NORTHEAST IA. WHILE
31.15Z RAP WOULD SUPPORT A FEW HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, 31.12Z
HREF MODELED SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE 600-700MB LAYER WILL REMAIN NEAR
SATURATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE THEREFORE CONTINUED TO KEEP
FZDZ OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT THIS WILL BE THE MAIN ASPECT TO MONITOR
OVER THE 36 HOURS AS CONFIDENCE IN THE LIGHT SNOW PORTION OF THE
FORECAST IS HIGH.
SLOW TEMPERATURE MODERATION CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK, PRECIP
POTENTIAL THURSDAY NIGHT, FRIDAY
GOOD AGREEMENT ACROSS EC/GFS/CMC ENSEMBLES THAT OUR SEEMINGLY
CEASELESS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THAT SAID, HEIGHT ALOFT REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME OR AT LEAST VERY
SLOWLY TREND UPWARD. NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGES FOR HIGHS ARE AROUND 5
DEGREES OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEK, REFLECTIVE OF BROAD CONSENSUS ON
THIS PATTERN. HIGHS WILL TEND TO BE IN THE 20S AND, WITH OCCASIONAL
DISTURBANCES EJECTING DOWNSTREAM, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PERIODS OF
FLURRIES EVENTUALLY EMERGING IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES.
ONLY TRULY NOTABLE PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THURSDAY, NORTHWESTERLY UPPER ADVANCES OVER SK/MB WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING UNDER THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE IN
WESTERN ONTARIO, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE IN OUR CWA. THE PROBABLE (60-90% PER 31.13Z NBM) RESULT WILL
BE TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER WAVE DIVES
SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA, PRECIP COULD (20-40%) DEVELOP IN OUR
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE PROBABLE ABOVE FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR WESTERLIES AT 850MB TO KEEP TEMPS
THERE ABOVE 0C, WILL NEED TO WATCH THIS PERIOD OVER THE COMING DAYS
AS IT MAY YIELD MULTIPLE PRECIP TYPES RATHER THAN ANOTHER SHOT OF
JUST LIGHT SNOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA BETWEEN 09Z
AND 11Z. THE SNOW THEN CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHEAST IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND LEAVE THE
AREA SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING. MVFR CIGS MOVE IN WITH THE INITIAL
SNOW AND GRADUALLY LOWER DURING THE EVENT BECOMING IFR BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES, AND AT TIMES LIFR, EXPECTED
WHILE IT IS SNOWING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20
TO 30 MPH. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH LATER SUNDAY MORNING. THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...CECAVA
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