483
FXUS63 KARX 290511
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1111 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OUR COLD SNAP LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
RETURN TO AT LEAST SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS LIKEWISE PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND AGAIN MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
TODAY - SATURDAY: COLD, DRY
A PAIR OF ELONGATED LOBES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDE DOWN
THE MID-MISSOURI TO MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS REIGN FOR
THE BULK OF THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH SEVERAL
PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW COULD BRING PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER,
MAINLY TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WE REMAIN ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THESE RIDGES, WHICH KEEPS A CONTINUED
FETCH OF POLAR AIR IN PLACE DURING THIS PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW ELONGATES AND BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, WRAPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION AND BRINGING
A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING MORE CLOUD COVER.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD THEREFORE REVOLVE
AROUND LOW TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO BULLISH WITH CLOUD COVER OVER THE PAST FEW
WEEKS IN THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES WHERE ICE CRYSTALS ARE
PRESENT IN THE COLUMN ALL THE WAY TO THE SURFACE, SO HAVE LEANED
MORE THE GLOBAL MODELS TO HANDLE THE OVERALL CLOUD FORECAST AND
SHORT TERM UPDATES DRIVEN BY UPSTREAM CLOUD TRENDS. SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT, TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN FAVORED POOLING LOCATIONS
COULD QUICKLY PLUMMET TO BETWEEN -10 AND -20 UNDER LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE CLOUDS THURSDAY
NIGHT MAY KEEP THIS PROCESS IN CHECK AND HAVE ONLY MADE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE DETERMINISTIC FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
SUNDAY - NEXT WEEK: WARMING, A COUPLE BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
TO END THE WEEK WITH A NORTHERN STREAM VORT LOBE CRESTING THE
RIDGE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CASCADING DOWN THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE
RIDGE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN THE SMALL FOOTPRINT OF THE
WAVE, THE MEDIUM RANGE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING TO NAIL DOWN THE EXACT STRUCTURE OF THE SURFACE
FEATURES AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS OF
HOW THIS SYSTEM SHAKES OUT, THE IMPACT LOOK TO BE LOW GIVEN ITS
RAPID PROGRESSION AND DECAYING STATE. NEARLY ALL (>90%) OF THE
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE AT LEAST A DUSTING OF SNOW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH HIGHER END SOLUTIONS IN THE 1-1.5
INCH RANGE (20-30% OF THE MEMBERS).
THIS SYSTEM ALSO HERALDS A LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHIFT AS THE
MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD AND SHOVES THE ARCTIC
AIR BACK NORTHWARD. THERE MAY BE SOME RIPPLES IN THE OVERALL
TEMPERATURE TREND NEXT WEEK, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IN THE
ENSEMBLES IS A STEADY WARMING THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S BY WEEK'S END. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LOOMS FOR MIDWEEK, BUT
DETAILS REMAIN TOUGH TO PIN DOWN AT THIS RANGE OTHER THAN
AMOUNTS ONCE AGAIN LOOK TO BE OF MINIMAL IMPACT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE 29.06Z TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TAF SITES
(KLSE/KRST) WITH MVFR-IFR CEILINGS PRIMARILY THREATENING SITES
IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD MVFR-IFR CEILINGS TOWARDS THE END
OF THE 29.06Z TAF PERIOD AND FRIDAY NIGHT SPREADING SOUTHWEST.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WITH PRECIPITATION
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...JAR
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