913
FXUS63 KARX 220535
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1235 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO NEAR 80 IN SOME SPOTS AREAWIDE. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S FOR MOST.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS VERY LIKELY (80-95%) THURSDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING
THIS PERIOD, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
TODAY - THURSDAY: WARM, SHOWER AND STORMS LIKELY THURSDAY EVENING
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE
REGION TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY AND INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, NBM INTER-QUARTILE RANGE
REMAINS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON KEEPING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS COMES IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDING SURFACE LOW. AS THIS
SURFACE LOW PUSHES NORTHWARD, AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
EJECTS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA. AS THIS OCCURS, AMPLE LIFT
WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. MLCAPE VALUES IN THE
RECENT RAP OVER 1000 J/KG WOULD SUGGEST STORMS WILL BE LIKELY,
HOWEVER THE MAIN FORECAST QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY, MUCH OF THE SHEAR PROFILES ARE IN THE LOW-
LEVELS WITH AMPLE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IN THE 0-1KM LAYER AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER, THIS QUICKLY BECOMES MESSY SUGGESTING
DEEP-LAYER STORM ORGANIZATION WOULD BE A STRUGGLE IN THIS
REGIME. AS A RESULT, CONVECTIVE MODE ALONG THE FRONT IN THIS
SETUP WOULD MORE LIKELY FAVOR PULSE-LIKE UPDRAFTS THAT PUSH
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THAT BEING
SAID, IF YOU CAN MANAGE TO SUSTAIN AN UPDRAFT FOR A LONGER
PERIOD, YOU COULD PERHAPS MANIFEST SOME BOWING SEGMENTS OR A
DEEP ENOUGH UPDRAFT TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7 C/KM.
OTHERWISE, PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL ARE
INCREASING IN THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) WHERE
IT HAS MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES (40-65%) FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
OVER 0.5", EVEN SOME LOW-END PROBABILITIES (10-30%) FOR OVER 1" OF
RAIN WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER, WITH MOST OF THE RIVERS
WITH RISES BEING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND THESE HIGHER
PROBABILITIES IN THE SOUTHEAST MN AND NORTHEAST IA, NOT EXPECTING
ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS WITH THIS ROUND OF RAIN AT THIS
POINT.
FRIDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK: COOLER, PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL MONDAY
AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY, COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES TO NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH THE TROUGH CLOSING
OFF INTO A CLOSED LOW AND PUSHING NORTHWARD, THIS WILL KEEP
REINFORCED SEASONABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON PIVOTING A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOWARDS THE REGION. AS THIS MOVE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST, A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED SURFACE LOW PUSHES INTO THE
REGION WITH A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DEFORMATION ZONE AND STRATIFORM RAIN
SHIELD. AS A RESULT, THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE)
HAS VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES (80-95%) FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL WITH
EVEN MEDIUM PROBABILITIES (20-40%) FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
0.75" THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS AROUND 25KFT LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN SOME MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BY MID MORNING. THESE WINDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 MPH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
THE YELLOW RIVER AT NECEDAH IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW MINOR FLOOD
STAGE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO FALL WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT, NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO SEE RISES BACK INTO FLOOD
STAGE AT THIS TIME.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...CECAVA
HYDROLOGY...NAYLOR
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