581
FXUS63 KARX 190403
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1100 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE THROUGH TUESDAY. MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH LOW TO MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE STRONGER UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES, SO SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL. ON TUESDAY 925 MB TEMPS WARM ABOUT
2-3C FROM TODAY WHICH SHOULD HELP BOOST TEMPS UP SEVERAL DEGREES.
WITH ENOUGH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE, TEMPS IN SOUTHERN AREAS MAY TOUCH
50. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM
BECOMING TOO WIDESPREAD.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES COULD BRING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS TO PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE, RIDGING WILL
BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS MID-WEEK INTO THE START OF THE
WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS. HIGHS BY LATE WEEK
WILL RISE INTO AT LEAST THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, POSSIBLY THE
60S IN SPOTS. THIS MILDER AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS A MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WEEKEND, LOW TEMPS WILL
ALSO INCREASE WITH MANY AREAS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING AT NIGHT,
HELPING TO EXPEDITE THE SNOWMELT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRY TO WORK
EAST FROM THE ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN BY SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES IS LOW, ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG UPPER
RIDGING DOWNSTREAM.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019
CIGS/WX/VSBY: MOSTLY HIGH/THIN CLOUDS TONIGHT INTO TUE, WITH SOME
INCREASE IN MID THEN POTENTIALLY LOW (MVFR?) FOR LATER TUE NIGHT.
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR THIS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL WED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SKIRTING SOUTH AND ANOTHER NORTH. COULD SEE SOME
-SHRA AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH, ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS
KEEPS THESE CHANCES NORTH AND/OR SOUTH.
WITH LACK OF STRATUS LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING - FOG DEVELOPED.
SEE SOME THREAT TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS JUST OFF THE SFC ARE
STRONGER AND THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO DEAL WITH. MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL KEEP P6SM FOR NOW AND
MONITOR.
WINDS: GENERALLY LIGHT TONIGHT PICKING UP SOME FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST BY LATE TUE MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019
MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING CONTINUES ON SOME MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TRIBS, BUT MOST RIVER STAGES ARE ON THE DECLINE AS THE RUNOFF FROM
LATE LAST WEEK WORKS THROUGH THE RIVER SYSTEM. THE TREMPEALEAU
RIVER AT DODGE, WI HOWEVER REMAINS NEAR MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AND
RIVER LEVELS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK.
ELEVATED/RISING STAGES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI THIS
WEEK WITH MINOR FLOODING AT SOME LOCATIONS. ICE JAMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE AS WELL. WARMING TEMPS THROUGH LATE WEEK WILL ACCELERATE
MELTING SNOW AND RUNOFF OF THE REMAINING SNOW PACK LEADING TO
ADDITIONAL FLOOD CONCERNS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
HYDROLOGY...JM
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