211
FXUS63 KARX 092325
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
625 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MUGGY FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S FOR TODAY AND THE LOW 80S TO LOW 90S FOR WEDNESDAY.
HEAT INDICES LARGELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR TODAY AND
THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR WEDNESDAY
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES ALL
BEING POSSIBLE.
- ANOTHER CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS THURSDAY
ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
TODAY-WEDNESDAY: WARM AND HUMID WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AS THE UPPER MIDWEST IS IN AN AREA OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY BRINGING IN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. HIGHS
FOR TODAY HAVE CONTINUED TO LOWER AS THEY HAVE BEEN OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES STAYING THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. HEAT INDICES HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO COME DOWN WITH VALUES
LARGELY IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY IS A BIT TRICKIER AS IT DEPENDS ON WHEN STORMS INITIATE AS
THIS WILL IMPACT HOW WARM WE GET. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE FORECASTED HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S WITH HEAT INDICES LARGELY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S.
SHIFTING GEARS TO THE STORM POTENTIAL WE BEGIN WITH A WARM FRONT
ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL
ALSO BE PUSHING INTO THE AREA AND THIS COMBINING WITH A GOOD
MOISTURE PUSH BEHIND THIS WARM FRONT, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM,
PARTICULARLY IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW FAR SOUTHEAST ALONG THIS FRONT WILL HAVE STORMS, BUT THE
HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN NORTH OF I-90. THESE STORMS LOOK TO EXIT OUR AREA
BY MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. WHILE WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THIS LINE, THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY (1500 TO
2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE) THAT SOME LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITH THIS FIRST LINE.
HEADING INTO THE LATER MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON, WE WILL WATCH
WHERE EXACTLY SOME POTENTIAL REMNANT MCVS AND OUTFLOWS FROM THE
STORMS AROUND THE AREA END UP AS THESE WOULD BE THE AREAS TO WATCH
INITIALLY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE CWA, SBCAPE VALUES WILL
BE IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR GETS BETTER FOR THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 TO 45 KTS. THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR ALSO INCREASES DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH VALUES IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE. WITH THESE VALUES, THE
TORNADO POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST DURING THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING, HOWEVER A TORNADO COULD OCCUR WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS IN
THE EARLIER AFTERNOON IF THEY CAN LATCH ONTO ANOTHER STORM'S
OUTFLOW. WITH THE HIGH INSTABILITY AND DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES,
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE
STORM. THE INITIAL STORM MODE BASED ON HODOGRAPHS ACROSS THE AREA
LOOK TO BE DISCRETE TO SEMI-DISCRETE INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUPERCELLS TO OCCUR. NOW THESE STORMS MAY CONGEAL RATHER QUICKLY
INTO BOWING SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS. THIS IS GOING TO LEAD TO
A TRICKY FORECAST REGARDING EXACT STORM MODE FOR THIS EVENT. ANOTHER
THING TO NOTE IS THAT THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS THAT
OCCUR AS WE WILL HAVE LIMITED CAPPING IN PLACE FROM THE LATER
MORNING HOURS THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN STORMS HAVING
THE CAPABILITY TO RAPIDLY FORM AND WILL LEAD TO A RATHER QUICK
RECOVERY IN THE ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING FOR MORE STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH
OR FORM OVER THE SAME AREAS. BY THE EVENING, A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THROUGH AND THE STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LINEAR
WHICH WOULD INDICATE THE SEVERE THREATS ARE MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS,
POTENTIALLY IN THE 75+MPH RANGE AND EMBEDDED TORNADOES WITHIN THE
LINE. ALL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO LEAVE THE AREA BETWEEN 04 AND 06Z.
NOT ONLY IS THERE SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT THERE IS ALSO A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT, PARTICULARLY IF THESE STORMS GO OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS
MULTIPLE TIMES. OVERALL, THIS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY IS VERY TRICKY
AND STILL HAS UNCERTAINTIES THAT MAY NOT BE RESOLVED UNTIL IT IS THE
MID MORNING. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AN UPDATE SECTION OF
THE AFD MAY BE ISSUED LATER TONIGHT FOR THOSE STORMS ALONG THE WARM
FRONT IF THEY OVERACHIEVE.
THURSDAY: CONDITIONAL SEVERE SETUP, HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS OVER THE THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE A SURFACE LOW EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE
OVERNIGHT. BY THE MID MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY, THIS LOW WILL BE
SOMEWHERE IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL IOWA. THE BOUNDARY THAT THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT STORMS FORM IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND BACK BUILD TOWARD THE LOW, HOWEVER
DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL LIKELY BE THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS. WITH INSTABILITY SURGING
NORTHWARD 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND TROUGH OVERHEAD, ALL STORM HAZARDS WILL
BE POSSIBLE. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR OUR
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, BASICALLY SOUTH OF A MASON CITY TO
JUST SOUTH OF WAUSAU LINE. AI AND ML GUIDANCE HAVE MIXED SIGNALS FOR
THURSDAY FOR HOW FAR NORTH TO BRING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. SOME
GUIDANCE BRINGS IT AS FAR NORTH AS THE WI/MN/IA LINE WHILE OTHERS
KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA. THE TIMING FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER
IS LIKELY GOING TO BE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AFTER THIS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND WE ARE BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL AS THIS A CONDITIONAL THREAT.
WHILE THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR, HEAVY RAINFALL IS
CERTAINLY GOING TO BE POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST, A GOOD PUSH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION COMES INTO THE
REGION. PWATS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY
BASED ON THE NAEFS FOR NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN
AND EFI VALUES FOR QPF HIGHLIGHTS MUCH OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH VALUES OF 0.7 TO 0.7
INDICATING THAT FORECASTED QPF AMOUNTS ARE ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY. AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS GO FOR THURSDAY, THE NEWEST NBM
HAS BETWEEN 1.5 TO 2" FOR MEAN QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE 90TH PERCENTILE DOES HIGHLIGHT THOSE SAME
AREAS WITH VALUES 2.75 AND 3.5". REGARDLESS OF THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE.
FRIDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK: COOLER WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS FROM PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO
A MIXTURE OF ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ALSO BE
UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL BE COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND A FEW RAIN
CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE SHOULD (80%) LEAD
TO ANOTHER BREAKOUT OF MFVR/IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT. BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY (70%) SKIRT NORTH OF A RST TO MFI LINE
AFTER 06Z THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING BUT HAVE INCLUDED A
PROB30 AT RST TO COVER THAT REMAINING 30 PERCENT. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z,
PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. FOR NOW, HAVE
INCLUDED A PROB30 AT LSE, BUT FULLY EXPECT THIS MENTION TO
BECOME MORE DEFINITE AND OVER A NARROWER TIME FRAME AS DETAILS
BECOME CLEARER OVER THE NEXT 2-3 TAF CYCLES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CECAVA
AVIATION...FERGUSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page