008
FXUS63 KARX 020000
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
700 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS (10-20%) A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN IMPACTS.
- WARMING TREND STARTING THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
FAVORED (50-90%) TO REACH 70 TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SHOWER, THUNDER POTENTIAL THROUGH FRIDAY:
A DREARY DAY IS ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS LIGHT SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE HAVE OCCURRED AHEAD OF A PAIR OF UPPER SHORTWAVES - ONE
DEPARTING TO OUR EAST AND ONE OVER SE MN/NE IA AS OF 19Z.
AS THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE DEPARTS, SHOULD GET A BIT OF A BREAK FROM
THE LIGHT PRECIP BEFORE ADDITIONAL RAIN OCCURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER WAVE, LOCATED OVER THE SD/MN
BORDER AS OF 19Z. IF ENOUGH CLEARING CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD (10-20%) BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ROUND.
INDEED, A BIT MORE VERTICAL GROWTH WITH THE CLOUDS IS SEEN IN NW IA
AS OF 19Z, WHERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. ASIDE
FROM LIGHTNING, WITH A SURFACE WIND SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS AXIS OF POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THE RISK FOR A NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO, WHILE VERY LOW,
WILL BE GREATER THAN ZERO GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT SURFACE
VERTICAL VORTICITY. HOWEVER, WOULD NEED SUFFICIENT CLEARING FOR
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CAPE AND CONCOMITANT STRETCHING POTENTIAL TO BE
PRESENT, A PROSPECT THAT APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN ONGOING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS.
FRIDAY, EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AS THE MAIN BODY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA. WITH THE PROBABILITY FOR
REACHING 1" OF RAIN ACROSS THE TWO DAYS UNDER 10% AREAWIDE, IMPACTS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.
WARM UP FOR NEXT WEEK:
FRIDAY'S UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO POTENTIALLY CUT OFF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS, UPPER
LOW SETS UP OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE ROCKIES. RESULTING
OMEGA BLOCK SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST,
PARTICULARLY NEXT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WHEN MODELED HEIGHTS ALOFT
REACH THE 90-97.5 PERCENTILE OF BOTH GEFS AND ECENS MODEL
CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY MAY. INDEED, 01.13Z PROBABILITIES SUGGEST A 50
TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE TO REACH 70 THOSE AFTERNOONS. AS FOR PRECIP,
MAGNITUDE OF THE MS VALLEY RIDGE IS RELATIVELY WEAK COMPARED TO
CLASSIC OMEGA BLOCK CASES, OPENING THE POSSIBILITY FOR UPPER
DISTURBANCES TO EJECT OVER THE CWA FROM THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW
ON MONDAY AND FROM THE WESTERN UPPER LOW WEDNESDAY. HAVE THUS
RETAINED LOW END (10-20%) NBM POPS DURING THESE PERIODS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
BAND OF NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LIGHT RAIN CAN BE SEEN SHIFTING
EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA ON RADAR AT 02.00Z TAF
ISSUANCE. WHILE PRESENT WEATHER SENSORS HAVE BEEN REPORTING -RA,
UPSTREAM IMPACTS VARY FROM MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS. MVFR
VISIBILITIES SCATTERED FARTHER WEST IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
EXPECT THIS BAND TO CONTINUE EAST WITH SATURATION LOWERING TO
WIDESPREAD MVFR FOLLOWED BY IFR. RAIN REMAINS IN A NARROWISH
BAND THROUGH THE MORNING. IFR CEILINGS FLUCTUATE NEAR LOW MVFR
THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR THROUGH MOST OF THE
02.00Z TAF PERIOD.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FERGUSON
AVIATION...JAR
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