051
FXUS63 KARX 290758
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
258 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLING OFF THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS FALLING TO THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 BY SATURDAY.
- DRY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT
SHOWERS (10-30% CHANCE) FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY: DRY AND SEASONAL
THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR FOR YESTERDAY/THIS MORNINGS RAIN
SHOWERS HAS MOVED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE MID/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ITS EXTENSIVE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS
SLOWLY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTHWEST. A FEW MORE
HUNDRETHS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING BUT OVERALL TOTALS LOOK TO BE SET ACROSS
THE AREA WITH MOST PLACES STAYING BELOW 0.25 INCHES. THE
HIGHEST TOTALS LOOK TO BE CONCENTRATED IN NORTHEAST IOWA
(0.2-0.4 IN) AND GRANT COUNTY (0.2-0.3 IN) WHERE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT HAD THE BEST CHANCE TO OVERCOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR.
NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY,
ALLOWING FOR SKIES TO CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH THE SUN PEEKING OUT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION
NOT FULLY IN SWING JUST YET, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THURSDAY WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID
50S BUT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
FRIDAY - EARLY NEXT WEEK: COOL AND DREARY
THE SYSTEM FROM EARLIER WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT BACK TO THE
NORTHEAST AND INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
OUT OF THE CANADIAN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE
REMAIN DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE ENSEMBLES WANT TO HANDLE THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS UPPER LOW WITH THE GEFS FAVORING A CUTOFF
SOLUTION OVER OUR AREA WITH THE ENS SUPPORTING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH YET ANOTHER VORT LOBE DROPPING INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WITH RATHER SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WILL
STICK WITH THE BLENDED POPS WHICH KEEPS A LARGELY DRY FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO COME BY
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID LEVELS SO HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE
(15%) AT THIS TIME. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO COME LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A
SURFACE LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH INTERACTS WITH SOME INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RETURN FLOW SETTING BACK UP DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES EAST THROUGH MONDAY, RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO GO WITH IT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
MID- NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH STEADFAST NORTHWEST FLOW ADVECTING
COOL, DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL STRUGGLE TO
TOP THE 50 DEGREE MARK WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW SUNDAY WILL HELP TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WHERE
THEY LOOK TO STAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2025
CIGS: EXPECTATION IS FOR THE LOWER VFR DECK AT KRST TO SHIFT
SOUTHWEST BY 06Z, LEAVING MOSTLY MID LEVEL VFR DECK THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. DECK LOOKS TO SCATTER OUT BY MID MORNING WED WITH SCT/SKC
CONDITIONS INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
WX/VSBY: AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN HAVE MANAGED TO SPREAD ACROSS WESTERN
WI BUT RADAR AND CAMS TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE -SHRA WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWEST BY 06Z FOR BOTH KRST/KLSE. MINIMAL VSBY IMPACTS/ACCUMS.
WINDS: NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY AT/BELOW 10 KTS
THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD WED EVENING.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...RIECK
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