178
FXUS63 KARX 111958
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
158 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CHANCE (UP TO 20 PERCENT) IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN TAYLOR
COUNTY TONIGHT.
- TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. FIRST ROUND (SNOW WITH A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE) MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 ON MONDAY
NIGHT. SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION (MAINLY RAIN) ALONG AND
BEHIND A COLD FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW) FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
TONIGHT
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. LIKE YESTERDAY, THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE AREA. ONLY NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PARTS OF TAYLOR COUNTY MIGHT BE CLIPPED BY THIS SNOW, SO
HAVE UP TO A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THIS AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-TEENS TO MID-20S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE 2 CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST CHANCE WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ON
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 94. IF THE MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS ABLE
SATURATE ENOUGH, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (UP TO 15%) THAT THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF 1 TO 2 HOURS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. OTHERWISE,
THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. LITTLE, IF
ANY, SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
ON TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE INITIALLY TOO DRY FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT AS THE AIR MASS
COOLS, IT WILL GRADUALLY SATURATE AND PRECIPITATION WILL FORM
ALONG AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WITH THE TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID-30S TO MID-40S, THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. ALL OF THE SATURATION OCCURS WITHIN
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, BUT IT IS ONLY 50 MB TO MAYBE 100 MB
IN DEPTH. THIS WOULD RESULT IN SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE
15-20 TO 1 RANGE. HOWEVER, WITH ONLY UP TO 0.01 INCHES OF
QPF EXPECTED, SNOW TOTALS WOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH AT MOST.
LIKE YESTERDAY, THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND WIND GUSTS LOOKED TO
LOW. WITH THIS BEING A KNOWN BIAS IN THE NBM, RAISED THEM UP
USING A BLEND OF 75 PERCENT NBM 90TH PERCENTILE AND 25 PERCENT
NBM. THESE VALUES ARE NOW MUCH CLOSER TO THOSE BEING SUGGESTED
IN BUFKIT.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
A 500 MB LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND DEEPEN ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW DEEP AND HOW FAR WEST THIS
TROUGH WILL EXTEND. THIS RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY ON HOW COLD AND
WHERE THE STORM TRACK WILL BE LOCATED. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY,
STAYED WITH THE NBM FOR TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
MVFR STRATUS IS STEADILY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD ONCE THESE CLOUDS CLEAR. WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS
OF 5-15G15-25KTS BY SUNSET. THESE WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE WSW
AND WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VALUES OF 5-10KTS FOR THE DAY ON
MONDAY. LLWS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT LOWER ELEVATION TAF SITES
THIS EVENING IF SURFACE WINDS DECOUPLE, BUT THE RISK LOOKS
TRANSIENT (<4 HRS) AND MARGINAL.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...SKOW
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