729
FXUS63 KARX 050319
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1020 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
CLOUDS STUCK AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING, BUT
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES NOW
ACROSS THE AREA, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 30S
AND 40S AS OF 2 PM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY INTO BROAD RIDGING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED QUIET AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON
SUNDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE WILL USHER IN SOME WARMER
AIR WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK INTO THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTS INTO THE AREA AND A COUPLE BITS OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. WITH
THE INCREASED MOISTURE, WE'LL ALSO HAVE AT LEAST A LITTLE
INSTABILITY IN THE AREA, SO COULD HAVE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ON
MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT
WORKING NORTHWARD THROUGH AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
MEANWHILE, A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS AND INTO MINNESOTA WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE MOVING WEST TO EAST SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION. A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW AND SLIDE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN PLACE, SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES LOOK
TO BE IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, AND WITH 50 TO 60 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR IN PLACE, CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT A
STOUT CAP LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY PER GFS
SOUNDINGS, BUT IT ALSO LOOKS TO ERODE AT LEAST SOME BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE FORCING OF THE WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT LIKELY
BEING ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY REMAINING CAPPING.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER CANADA ON LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND AND
PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME RAIN ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF LIGHT PRECIP TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK
AS VARIOUS LOBES OF PV ADVECTION WRAP AROUND THE LOW AS IT PUSHES
INTO EASTERN CANADA. GIVEN THE COLD AIR CONTINUING TO SPILL INTO THE
AREA, SOME LIGHT SNOW COULD MIX IN AT TIMES. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 20S TO MID 30S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
CIGS: SKC/SCT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE REGION
IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. NOT EXPECTING CIGS TO
SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE TAF SITES UNTIL SUN NIGHT, WITH MVFR/IFR
AFTER 12Z MONDAY.
WX/VSBY: NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
WINDS: LIGHT SOUTHEAST/VRB TONIGHT, PICKING UP JUST A BIT AND MORE
SOUTHERLY FOR SUN.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...RIECK
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