290
FXUS63 KARX 162350
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
550 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S
GIVE WAY TO A GRADUAL COOLING TREND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S BY THE WEEKEND.
- RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-90. LOW POTENTIAL
(10% CHANCE) FOR FREEZING RAIN/WINTRY MIX NORTH OF I-94 BEFORE
A SWITCHOVER TO LIGHT SNOW OCCURS LATE WEDNESDAY. MINIMAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
- A SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO FRIDAY WITH A RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION LIKELY (50-70%
CHANCE). CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR GREATER
ARE INCREASING (40-60% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 122 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
REST OF TODAY - TUESDAY: CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES
ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BE THE PREDOMINANT SYNOPTIC FLOW
PATTERN TODAY WITH SOME WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM
ADVECTION ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. CONSEQUENTLY, MEDIAN HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE NBM RESPOND ACCORDINGLY FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I-94. GIVEN MINIMAL SIGNAL IN SATELLITE
TRENDS FOR CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON, HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE
HIGHS SLIGHTLY WITH AREAS THAT PREDOMINANTLY SEE SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LIKELY HITTING 60 DEGREES.
DEFINITELY A GOOD DAY TO GET OUTDOORS AS THESE MILD TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT LAST FOR MUCH LONGER. AS WE HEAD INTO TUESDAY, HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-94 AGAIN, HOWEVER
AS A 500MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION EXPECTING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS.
TUESDAY EVENING - WEDNESDAY: RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, THUNDER
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-90
AFTER SUNSET ON TUESDAY, AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND BROAD
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PUSH INTO THE AREA INSTIGATING AN AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH A RESPECTABLE AXIS OF
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO THE REGION. AS MOISTURE GETS
PUSHED NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA, DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED ACROSS MUCH
OF ENSEMBLE/DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE TO INCREASE INTO THE 40S ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-90 OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT, REALLY NOT EXPECTING
TEMPERATURES TO COOL BELOW THE 40 DEGREE MARK, SO CONFIDENCE IS
EXTREMELY HIGH FOR AN ALL RAIN SCENARIO SOUTH OF I-94.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE MOISTURE ADVECTION, THE 16.12Z GFS SHOWS
SOME MUCAPE (AROUND 100 J/KG) ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST WI
AND NORTHEAST IA SUGGESTING THAT A FEW STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
ON WEDNESDAY, COLD ADVECTION BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO DECLINE SLIGHTLY DURING THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. AS A RESULT, COULD SEE SOME FREEZING RAIN
(~10% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE) AND/OR SNOW MIX IN NORTH OF I-94 AS
THERMAL PROFILES COOL. OVERALL NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF I-94. ASIDE FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
INCREASED WINDS ARE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY AS A TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASED MIXING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD
ADVECTION REGIME WILL AID IN MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF A 35-45 KT
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD TO THE SURFACE. CONSEQUENTLY, THE EC
ENSEMBLE HAS FAIRLY RESPECTABLE PROBABILITIES (50-80%) FOR WIND
GUSTS OVER 35 MPH WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY: COOLER, RAIN & SNOW LIKELY
THURSDAY WILL INITIALLY FEATURE A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION DURING
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES BEING NOTICEABLY
COOLER BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR ADVECTION. HOWEVER, THIS
LULL IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SECONDARY
TROUGH/POTENTIAL CLOSED 500MB LOW SWINGS TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA. SURFACE LOW POSITIONS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY MORE
AGREEMENT IN THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE)
CLUSTER ANALYSIS AS OPPOSED TO 24 HOURS AGO WITH ROUGH
TRAJECTORY THROUGH IA/IL AND INTO SOUTHERN WI OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THE OPERATIONAL RUNS
OF THE GFS/EC SHOW STILL SOME SLIGHT TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES. OVERALL THE GENERAL CONCEPTUAL MODEL WITH THIS
FEATURES THE SURFACE LOW SLOWLY DEEPENING AS IT MOVES
EAST/NORTHEAST WITH A FAIRLY COMPACT DEFORMATION ZONE ON ITS
WESTERN FLANK. GIVEN THERE WILL STILL BE A SOMEWHAT WARM
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, THE
COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO DO SOME
WORK BEFORE A CHANGEOVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW OCCURS, ESPECIALLY
THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST YOU GET. IN ADDITION, THE GFS
FRONTOGENESIS AT 700-900MB DEPICTS A FAIRLY HEALTHY SIGNAL
WITHIN THIS DEFORMATION ZONE SO MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES IN THIS COMPACT AREA
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW.
AS FAR AS SNOW AMOUNTS ARE CONCERNED, PROBABILITIES ARE FAIRLY HIGH
(50-75%) IN THE GRAND ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) FOR
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES
FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR GREATER STILL HINGE ON
BOTH THE EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THIS SURFACE LOW AS
PROBABILITIES ARE AROUND 40-60 PERCENT IN THE GRAND ENSEMBLE
(GEFS/EC/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE) FOR AN INCH OF SNOWFALL OR GREATER.
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THESE PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED OVER
THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE ARE EVEN SOME LOW-END PROBABILITIES
(10-30%) FOR AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA, WONDERING IF THESE PROBABILITIES ARE BROAD BRUSHED AND IF
THEY WILL INCREASE AND BECOME MORE FIXED TO A SPECIFIC AREA AS
THE LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS MORE
REFINED. IN ANY CASE, THIS LOOKS LIKE THE TIME PERIOD WITH THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AT THIS POINT OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.
THIS WEEKEND: RETURNING TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, MID-LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF A MORE TYPICAL WINTER AIRMASS
INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO 30S.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A CLIPPER
SYSTEM TO DESCEND INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY AT THIS STAGE SEEMS ON THE
LOWER-END AS THE GRAND ENSEMBLE ONLY HAS LOW PROBABILITIES
(20-40%) FOR MEASURABLE SNOWFALL DURING THIS PERIOD SO HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD WITH THE NBM PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CEILINGS STARTING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY, WHICH LOWER TO IFR
TUESDAY NIGHT AS RAIN DEVELOPS. WINDS SLOWLY VEER FROM THE N/NE
TO E BY SUNRISE AT 5-10 KTS, INCREASING TO 10-20G20-30KTS FROM
THE ESE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WINDS ONCE AGAIN LOOK BLUSTERY FROM THE WEST
ON WEDNESDAY, MAINLY SOUTH OF AN EAU TO ISW LINE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE SET TODAY AND TUESDAY AT
ROCHESTER.
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR ROCHESTER
DATE RECORD (YEAR) / FORECAST
----------------------------------------
MON, FEB 16 35 (1981) / 36
TUE, FEB 17 35 (1981) / 37
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...SKOW
CLIMATE...NAYLOR/SKOW
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