178
FXUS63 KARX 242327
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
627 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA
INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CHANCES INCREASE MONDAY, INITIALLY
LOWER CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AFFECTING
SUBSEQUENT LOCALLY HIGHER SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WITH SECONDARY HAZARD OF TORNADOES.
- COLDER THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY NEARING FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR SOME
BY MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
NEAR SEASONABLE WEEKEND & LOW, LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR SOME:
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN TODAY (FRIDAY) THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECTED AS THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
LOW STRADDLING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVER MONTANA AND NORTH
DAKOTA SLIGHTLY RETREATS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH
SATURDAY. RESULTANT RETURN FLOW EKES INTO AND GRAZES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOCUSED ALONG A LOW LEVEL STRETCHING AXIS
SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHEAST ALONG LOCALLY NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERAL COUNTIES FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL
AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. NARROW, CONFINED NATURE OF MEAGER MOISTURE RETURNS
LIMITS COVERAGE, OVERALL IMPACTS, AND QPF AMOUNTS. THEREFORE,
WHILE HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIMITED POPS, WILL BE INITIAL FORECAST
DETAIL REQUIRING FORECAST AMENDMENTS IN COMING FORECAST
ISSUANCES.
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM CHANCES MONDAY:
AFTER THE MEAGER LOW PROGRESSES NORTHEAST ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED
AXIS OF DILATATION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, RETURN FLOW
REINVIGORATES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE ON GOES WV IMAGERY LIFTS NORTHEAST DUE TO INCOMING
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK SEEN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC ON GOES DERIVED
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN LIFTING OF THE SUBSEQUENT
LINGERING TROUGHAL APPENDAGE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
BRINGS INITIAL STORM CHANCES IN LOCALLY WESTERN COUNTIES THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING ON THE PRECURSOR WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
ANCILLARY LINEAR STORM MODE ALONG A SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE LIMITED BY DURATION OF MORNING STORMS
POTENTIALLY ACCESSING MEAGER INSTABILITY IN LINGERING NARROW
FILAMENT OF INCREASED MOISTURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA AFFECTS SUBSEQUENT BUILDING OF LOCAL INSTABILITY.
FURTHERMORE, VARIATIONS IN TRACK OF LOW CENTER SEEN FROM
CENTRAL WISCONSIN TO THE MINNESOTA INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN THE
EPS (24.06Z) AND FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO THE MINNESOTA
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN THE GEFS (24.12Z). THE MORE NORTHERN
TRACK, A PERSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE EPS OVER RECENT RUNS COMPARED
TO THE GEFS WHICH ONLY BEGUN TO TIE INTO THIS SOLUTION IN THE
LAST COUPLE OF RUNS, ADVECTS A MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
FARTHER NORTH THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA, INCREASING LOCAL
STORM CHANCES. A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK COULD LIMIT LOCAL STORM
COVERAGE AND DURATION AS THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR COULD ONLY
GRAZE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH, ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY WITHIN THE LOW CENTER COULD EXACERBATE
AVAILABLE SHEAR AND SUBSEQUENT LOCAL SEVERE HAZARDS SHOULD IT
TRAVERSE THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA.
WHILE ANCILLARY COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSION CAUSING LINEAR STORM
MODE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON EVENING WOULD BE THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO FOR LOCALLY HEIGHTENED STORM SEVERITY, LREF
SOUNDING PLUMES SUGGEST CLOCKWISE TURNING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
LOCALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS; RAISING CONCERN FOR INITIAL
SEVERE HAZARDS TO INCLUDE ISOLATED TORNADOES SHOULD STORMS
MANAGE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED HOWEVER CHALLENGING THE ENDEAVOR.
LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO BUT SHOULD BE MENTIONED NONETHELESS.
SIMILARLY, CURRENT CONFIDENCE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WITH ANCILLARY COLD FRONT PASSAGE PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN
CURRENT FORECAST HOUR ALSO REQUIRES ADDITIONAL SCRUTINIZING FOR
POTENTIALLY WEAKER TORNADOES WHERE QLCS BREAKS FORM. OVERALL,
FURTHER DETAILS AND HAZARDS REQUIRING FURTHER ADDRESSING IN
COMING FORECAST PACKAGES.
COLDER THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK:
A CANADIAN POLAR AIRMASS ATTEMPTS TO POKE SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, RAISING
CONCERNS FOR FROST/FREEZE INITIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT LOCALLY. WHILE
INITIAL TIMING OF COLDER REMAINS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF TROUGH
EJECTION, SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT FOR COLDER AIR SETTLING INTO REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INCREASES SOME CONFIDENCE FOR
NEAR FREEZING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
COLDEST SOLUTION IN THE GFS/GEFS ADVECTS THE 850MB 0C ISOTHERM
THROUGH MOST OF IOWA BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. IRREGARDLESS,
CURRENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE (80%) FOR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF APRIL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE VERY LIKELY TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. VERY SMALL CHANCE (<5%) FOR VALLEY FOG BUT NORTHWESTERLY
WIND DIRECTION STRONGLY SUGGESTS THIS WILL REMAIN AWAY FROM LSE
EVEN IF IT DOES FORM. WINDS BECOME OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AFTER
SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IN THE 10-20 KFT
LAYER AS WELL AFTER CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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