428
FXUS63 KARX 241049
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
549 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAYBE SOME SMALL CHANCES (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT CHANCE) OF SEVERE
WEATHER LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN WISCONSIN.
- TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARMING FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
- MAYBE SOME SEVERE WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
TODAY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES, THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY WANE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
RECOVERY IN THE INSTABILITY (UP TO 1800 J/KG) FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE FOUND IN WISCONSIN.
AS THE 850 MB AND 700 MB WINDS INCREASE, THE HODOGRAPH WILL INCREASE
IN LENGTH. THIS MIGHT RESULT IN A FEW SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. THE
BETTER CHANCES OF THIS OCCURRING WOULD BE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WISCONSIN. WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON, HAIL
WOULD BE THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, BUT EVEN THAT THREAT
LOOKS TO BE VERY LOW (2-5%). THERE MIGHT BE EVEN A SECONDARY THREAT
FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MISSISSIPPI AND
WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEYS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS
ON THURSDAY AND THEN CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. A DRY
NORTH TO EAST FLOW WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID-70S ON
THURSDAY, AND IN THE MID- TO UPPER 70S ON FRIDAY.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DEEPEN FROM SATURDAY INTO MONDAY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
AS THIS OCCURS, A 500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTHWARD FROM THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL GULF NORTHWARD TO HUDSON BAY. ON SUNDAY, A WARM FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IT MOVES EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THEY WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-70 TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY, IN THE 80S ON
SUNDAY, AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID-90S ON MONDAY. WITH DEW
POINTS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MID-70S, HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE MID-90S TO 105.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS OUT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ON MONDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA, THE RIDGE GRADUALLY FLATTENS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. INITIALLY THE CAPPING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
ON MONDAY AND MUCH OF THE MONDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW MOST-
UNSTABLE CAPES TO BUILD INTO THE 2-3K J/KG RANGE. DURING THE MID- TO
LATE AFTERNOON, DISCRETE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN MINNESOTA.
DURING THE EVENING, THE COLD POOLS WITH THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
COALESCE AND A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EITHER
DURING THE LATE EVENING OR THE OVERNIGHT. IF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURS
IN OUR AREA, IT WOULD BE LIKELY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 90. HEAT INDICES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID-90S TO AROUND 100.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
AREA OF TSRA IS SLOWLY EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HAS CLEARED
A CCY TO ISW LINE AS OF ISSUANCE TIME. ATTENTION BRIEFLY TURNS
TO THE NORTH WHERE STRATUS IS DIVING SOUTHEAST OVER THE TWIN
CITIES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO 10-15
MPH SHOULD ASSERT THEMSELVES SOON AFTER SUNRISE AND HELP TO KEEP
THIS OUT OF RST/LSE BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS OVER
THE NEXT ~3 HOURS. THEN, POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA
RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WITH LSE
ROUGHLY ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF HIGHER PROBABILITIES, HAVE
CONTINUED WITH A PROB30 TS MENTION WITH THIS UPDATE.
INTERESTINGLY, UNCERTAINTY FOCUSES AROUND POSSIBILITY (20%) FOR
AN EARLY THUNDERSTORM BEFORE 18Z SO MAY NEED TO ADJUST ONGOING
TIMING WITH AN AMENDMENT IF NECESSARY. IN ANY CASE, TS POTENTIAL
SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA WEST TO EAST A BIT AFTER 00Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW UNTIL NEAR 12Z, WHEN STRATUS MAY RETURN
TO CENTRAL WI.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...FERGUSON
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