335
FXUS63 KARX 230429
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1129 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERALL QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK.
CURRENT HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-40%) FOR THURSDAY.
WARMEST DAY EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, LOW CONFIDENCE (20-40%) IN
EXACT TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED:
LOW CONFIDENCE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEK AS
WEST-NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW POTENTIALLY PERMITS MEAGER,
WEAKENING PERTURBATIONS AND TRANSIENT BOUTS OF RETURN FLOW;
CREATING VARIABILITY BETWEEN LONG TERM GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS.
MAIN MODEL DISCREPANCY ORIGINATES IN THE TROPICS WHERE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE SYNOPTIC HIGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON GOES WEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPS THIS EVENING. RESULTANT
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE HIGH, INFLUENCING DIRECTION AND
STRENGTH OF WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PERTURBATIONS DIFFERING OVERALL
DEGREE OF WARMING AND LIGHT, LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
MIDWEEK AND LATE WEEK.
WHILE MOST RECENT EPS (22.18Z) CONTINUES TO BE THE WETTER
SOLUTION COMPARED TO THE GEFS (22.18Z), BOTH LONG TERM GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES HAVE EXHIBITED DECREASING PROBABILITY TRENDS FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK. THEREFORE, WHILE INTERENSEMBLE
MAXIMUM PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01" OF QPF IN 24 HOURS WOULD
ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH SOME, ALBEIT LIMITED,
PROBABILITIES MOST DAYS, OVERALL LACK OF CONFIDENCE LEAVES A
DRY (<15%) NBM OUTSIDE OF THURSDAY MORNING (20-40%).
CURRENT FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUGGESTS THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. TOO EARLY TO DISCERN EXACT
TEMPERATURES AS 25-75TH SPREAD IN NBM REMAINS 5-10 DEGREES, FROM
THE 60S TO UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE 23.06Z TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL STRATUS
HAS BEEN HOLDING ON MUCH STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT 23.06Z TAF ISSUANCE AND THEREFORE HAVE
DELAYED CLEARING AT BOTH TAF SITES (KLSE/KRST) INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE END OF THE 23.06Z
TAF PERIOD EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT THE CURRENT, LONGER
FORECAST HOUR. WIDESPREAD IMPACTS APPEAR POSSIBLE (10-50%)
WEDNESDAY.
LIGHT WINDS TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
SNOWMELT HAS LED TO RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS OVER THE
PAST WEEK WITH THIS CONTINUING IN AREAS THAT SAW 1-2 FEET OF
SNOW A WEEK AGO, CONCENTRATED IN THE BLACK AND TREMPEALEAU
BASINS. THESE RISES HAVE OUTRUN BOTH DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS
AND HEFS OUTPUT WITH MINOR FLOODING ONGOING ON THE BLACK RIVER
AT BLACK RIVER FALLS. THIS MAY ALSO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING
DOWNSTREAM AT GALESVILLE BUT HAVE REFRAINED FROM ISSUING A FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS TIME DUE THIS TAKING PLACE MORE THAN 48 HOURS
DOWN THE ROAD. AS FOR THE TREMPEALEAU, DO NOT EXPECT ARCADIA TO
REACH MINOR FLOOD AS, WHILE THE FORECAST IS WELL HIGHER THAN TOP
END HEFS OUTPUT CURRENTLY, UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST A
TURNAROUND WILL VERY LIKELY (95%) OCCUR BEFORE MINOR FLOOD IS
REACHED.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JAR
AVIATION...JAR
HYDROLOGY...FERGUSON
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