786
FXUS63 KARX 041858
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
158 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY DUE TO
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS.
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY CEASE BY
TUESDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING. FROST
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHTS.
- PRECIPITATION/MEAGER STORM CHANCES (20-30%) THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES (30%) RETURNING BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
AREAWIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
TODAY - TONIGHT: ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER, SOME STORM CHANCES SOUTH
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA,
SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT,
WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WHICH IS DRAGGING IN
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS, CREATING SOME ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. EVEN WITH SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION, MIXING REMAINS PLENTIFUL WITH RHS
CONTINUING TO FALL TO BETWEEN 20-35%. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR
PREVENTING CONCERNS FROM INCREASING REMAINS THE SUBSTANTIAL GREEN UP
FROM A RECORD BREAKING WET APRIL. WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION BEGINS TO SET UP, EFFECTIVELY CEASING MIXING.
AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY ARE KEEPING SOME LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA AND
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, A CUMULUS FIELD HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THIS REGION BUT AGITATED CUMULUS REMAIN AT
BAY WITH CAPPING HOLDING FIRM. CURRENT HI-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO HOLD ANY SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTION SOUTH/EAST OF OUR AREA
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WOULD BE VERY HIGH
BASED WITH LCLS UP AROUND 700 MB (ROUGHLY 3 KM). INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE VALUES AROUND 800-1000 J/KG INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM DOWNDRAFTS SHOULD ANY
STORMS BE ABLE TO FULLY MATURE. HOWEVER THIS IS LOOKING LESS
LIKELY FOR OUR AREA. WE WILL SEE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION AS THE ELEVATED FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH LATER THIS
EVENING AND INTERACTS WITH THE MORE AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE CONFINED TO A
SIMILAR REGION (NE IOWA AND SW WISCONSIN) AND SHOULDN'T PROVIDE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS (PERHAPS A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN
INCH).
AS WINDS FINALLY START TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
GIVEN THAT THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIKELY MAKE IT QUITE DIFFICULT
TO CONDENSE INTO ANYTHING FOR FROST AND A LACK OF WIDESPREAD
FREEZING TEMPERATURES, HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR THE TIME
BEING.
TUESDAY - THE WEEKEND: RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN
A STRONG UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SIT AND SPIN OVER ONTARIO AND THE
HUDSON BAY FOR MUCH OF THIS WORK WEEK, KEEPING OUR REGION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A DRIER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEEP INTO THE REGION WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH DROPPING INTO THE
PLAINS BY MIDWEEK. THIS, ALONG WITH CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW WILL PREVENT ANY SORT OF APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN. AS
SUCH, OUR FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THURSDAY. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVERHEAD LATE IN THE WEEK AND GIVE RISE TO
SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN BY
THAT POINT, ARE NOT EXPECTING THIS TO AMOUNT TO MUCH OVERALL
WITH MINIMAL QPF RETURNS FORECASTED THUS FAR. THIS TREND
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. PERSISTENT WEST/NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL WORK TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER PRETTY DRY ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEK, A NICE REPRIEVE FROM THE HECTIC AND
SOGGY APRIL WE HAD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S AND
60S WITH HIGHS NOT EVEN FLIRTING WITH THE 70 DEGREE MARK UNTIL
SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING
MOST NIGHTS WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS SO
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND
EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG. THIS WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
BOTH OF THEM WILL SEE MID- AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS. WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND A RELAXING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...BOYNE
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