732
FXUS63 KARX 160029
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
629 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW BEGIN THIS EVENING AND LAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- OVERALL TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT--1 TO 3 INCHES.
HOWEVER, A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW COULD OCCUR
OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THIS BAND EVEN DEVELOPING IS LOW
(10-20%) AND COULD AFFECT ANYWHERE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.
- INCREASING WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
COUPLED WITH BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS, COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED
BLOWING SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE (20-40%)
OWING TO UNKNOWNS IN THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND
THEIR STRENGTH.
- TEMPERATURES PLUMMET FOR THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY NIGHT. MORNING WIND CHILLS FALL TO BETWEEN -10 AND -20.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT: FIRST BANDS OF SNOW
THE LEADING MID-TROPOSPHERIC WARM AIR ADVECTION/FGEN WING OF
SNOW HAS BEEN SLIDING ESE FROM NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
GRADUALLY FILLING IN TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS IT BATTLES
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC DRY AIR. THIS BATTLE HAS RESULTED IN A SLOWER
ONSET TIME TO THE SNOW THAN EARLIER FORECAST WITH LIGHT AMOUNTS
(<0.5") CONFINED TO MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AS THE DRY SLOT CUTS THROUGH BEHIND THIS WAA WING THIS EVENING,
STILL CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT
WILL HINGE ON HOW MUCH THE EARLIER BAND OF SNOW CAN SATURATE THE
LOWER TROPOSPHERE. FORECAST PROFILES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
10 SHOW AN APPRECIABLE DRY LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE AND THINNER
LIQUID CLOUD DEPTHS, WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
RISK. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT THE WINTRY MIX WORDING FURTHER NORTH
OF THIS LINE.
THE 850-MB TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT PRESENTS THE
BEST WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THIS DRAWN
OUT EVENT. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
HAVE DEVELOPED A MESO-LOW AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH, RESULTING
IN ENHANCED SNOWFALL RATES NEAR/NORTH OF THIS LOW. HOWEVER, THIS
HAS BEEN A FLEETING SOLUTION (10-20% CONFIDENCE) AND A SIZABLE
NUMBER OF OTHER RUNS/CAMS KEEP THE WAVE OPEN AND SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS MUCH LESS (1- 2").
THE TRACK OF THIS MESO LOW WILL ALSO DICTATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
EARLIER RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP HAD THIS LOW TRACKING NORTH OF I-94
AND DRAWING ON MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR, ENHANCING SNOW
RATES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH SOME AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 6". THE
LATER RUNS THAT DO HAVE THIS LOW HAVE TAKEN IT SOUTH OF I-94
AND BRING THE HEAVIER SNOW BAND (2-5") CLOSER TO I-90 OVERNIGHT.
THIS IS A FEATURE WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH CAREFULLY OVERNIGHT AND
POSSIBLY ISSUE A TARGETED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IF THIS ROUGE
SOLUTION PANS OUT.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDY/SNOW SHOWERS/BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS
THERE COULD BE A FEW HOUR LULL IN THE SNOW FRIDAY MORNING
BEHIND OUR OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE PASSAGE, BUT WILL BE RATHER
FLEETING. BY LATE MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL BE BARRELING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, WITH RAPIDLY STEEPENING BOUNDARY
LAYER LAPSE RATES LEADING TO HCR-TYPE SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE
MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
INCREASE TO 30-35KTS--MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER--
WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOWER VISIBILITIES (1-3SM) WITHIN ANY OF
THESE SHOWERS.
THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PROFILES ALONG THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT APPEAR LIMITED IN NATURE (REFLECTED IN THE EXPLICIT
REFLECTIVITY PROGS), WHICH WOULD NEGATE THE SNOW SQUALL RISK
ALONG THE FRONTOGENESIS BAND. THE LACK OF FORCING WITHIN THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AND BARE GROUND WILL LIKEWISE LIMIT THE
BLOWING SNOW/SNOW SQUALL RISK LATER IN THE DAY. THEREFORE, GIVEN
THESE FACTORS, HAVE LEANED AGAINST ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR NOW. THESE SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BUT
WANE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.
THE WEEKEND: PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE STACKED
GREAT LAKES LOW PIVOTS AND SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. A
FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW WITH ANY
ATTENDANT WEAK PERTURBATIONS, BUT AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS LOOK TO BE
MINIMAL (<0.5"). SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT AND KEEPS THE RISK FOR SNOW AT BAY. ANOTHER CLIPPER
WAVE CASCADES DOWN THE LONGWAVE RIDGE TO THE WEST, AFFECTING THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT ON THIS SYSTEM OCCURRING, EXACT SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN. INITIAL INDICATIONS ARE THAT
SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE (AROUND 1 INCH) AND
FOCUSED MORE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN, STILL SUBJECT TO
ADJUSTMENTS.
COLD WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT HERALDS A STARK TRANSITION BACK
TO WINTERTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE REACHED DURING THE MORNING WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES FALL
20-25 DEGREES FRIDAY BY THE EVENING AND STRUGGLE TO RISE OUT OF
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS ON SATURDAY. EXACTLY HOW LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE PASSES. ROUGHLY 10-20
PERCENT OF THE NBM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE LOW TEMPERATURES OF -10
TO -15 FOR SUNDAY MORNING, A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO GIVEN THE FRESH
SNOWFALL AND POTENTIALLY CLEARING SKIES.
A SIMILAR SETUP COULD PLAY OUT MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE LATTER
CLIPPER WAVE DISCUSSED ABOVE WITH A 10-20% CHANCE OF SEEING LOWS
REACH -20 NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10. LOOKING AHEAD, TEMPERATURES DO
MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MIDWEEK, BUT WILL BE A FAR CRY FROM
THE WARMTH WE SAW OVER THE PAST WEEK. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR
COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH US
LINGERING IN THIS BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN, BUT MODEL
SPREAD IS LARGE AT THIS RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION. AS EACH ONE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, IT WILL BRING WITH
IT IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISBILITIES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SKOW
AVIATION...BOYNE
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