333  
FXUS63 KARX 230541  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
1241 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.  
 
- FROST ADVISORY OR FREEZE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR  
THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
- NEAR TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2025  
 
TONIGHT  
 
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, THINKING THAT THE 22.12Z MODELS ARE TOO  
FAST AT CLEARING THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE  
CASE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WITH SKIES  
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOUDY LONGER, ADJUSTED THE LOW TEMPERATURES  
TOWARD THE WARMER CONSSHORT. THIS RESULTED IN LOW TEMPERATURES IN  
THE LOWER 30S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND IN THE LOWER AND MID-  
30S ELSEWHERE. EVEN THOUGH THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER, NOT  
PLANNING ON MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE FROST ADVISORY.  
 
THURSDAY  
 
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE MODELS ARE  
TOO FAST AT CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE  
CASE FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE CLOUDS  
COULD RESULT IN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS ON THURSDAY.  
AT THIS TIME, DIDN'T DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE NBM HIGH TEMPERATURES.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT  
 
TH 925 AND 850 MB RIDGE BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT  
IN THE SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL  
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 20S (MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER TEENS IN CENTRAL  
WISCONSIN) TO THE LOWER 30S. AS A RESULT, WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO  
ISSUE FROST ADVISORY/FREEZE WARNING.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY  
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL  
BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL  
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
EITHER NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.  
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY  
 
STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE  
SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST. THIS IMPACTS WHEN RAIN MAY RETURN TO THE  
AREA. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE FASTEST AND IT MOVES RAIN INTO THE  
AREA AS SOON AS SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF KEEPS  
THE AREA MAINLY DRY THROUGH THIS FORECAST TIME FRAME.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MUCH OF  
THE REGION AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD,  
ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILINGS OF 1.5-2.5KFT MAY LINGER FOR LOCATIONS  
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH MUCH THURSDAY. WINDS  
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST, GENERALLY  
5-10KTS, AND DIURNAL CUMULUS OF 3-4KFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP  
THIS AFTERNOON. LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN ALSO  
EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 10 IN  
WISCONSIN (10-20%), BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL.  
 
 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ032-033-  
041>044-053>055-061.  
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ079-086>088-  
094>096.  
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ008>011-018-  
019-029-030.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...BOYNE  
AVIATION...FALKINHAM  
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