485
FXUS63 KARX 161129
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
529 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-94,
40S NORTH.
- PRECIPITATION MOVES INTO THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY (40-90%). RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION
TYPE, BUT LOW POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/WINTRY MIX (~10%)
EXISTS NORTH OF I-94 BEFORE A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
(40-60%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
TODAY
THE WARMEST DAY OF OUR PSEUDO-SPRING IS UPON US AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN OVER A PERSISTENTLY OVERPERFORMING AIRMASS BEHIND THE
QUICKLY MOVING SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EASTWARD THIS MORNING. WITH
LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE EXPECTED, THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 50S AGAIN TODAY, BUT THOSE SOUTH OF
I-90 OVER NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO REACH INTO THE 60S WITH THE 16.01Z NBM DEPICTING
30-60% PROBABILITIES FOR 60+ DEGREES. THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON IS CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE OVER IOWA, WHICH IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING.
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THESE CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT, WE
MAY END UP FALLING JUST SHORT OF THE 60 DEGREE MARK. HOWEVER,
THERE IS SIGNAL AMONGST THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
(NBM/HREF/LREF) INDICATING THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SKEDADDLE LATE
THIS MORNING AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. RAP/HRRR SOUNDINGS ALSO
SUGGEST EFFICIENT DIURNAL MIXING OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON, AS DEEP AS 800HPA, WHICH WOULD AID IN HAVING
TEMPERATURES OVERPERFORM.
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECEDING A SYSTEM MID-WEEK RESULTS IN
925HPA TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND 5-10C. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S FOR THOSE SOUTH OF I-94, 40S NORTH.
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
HEADING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AN ABNORMALLY DEEP LOW (NEAR/AT THE
MINIMUM OF CLIMATOLOGY PER THE 15.12Z NAEFS) SHIFTS EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
BRINGS PWATS OF 0.7-0.8 INCHES TO THE REGION, ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH MORE THAN
ADEQUATE MOISTURE AVAILABLE ALONG WITH FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW ITSELF, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY (40-90%) AS THE LOW PROGRESSES
THROUGH.
SOUTH OF I-94, PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN GIVEN THE
WARM ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND BEING WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM AS IT SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-90 AS GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ALONG WITH THE 16.00Z EPS MEAN SUGGEST 100-200 J/KG OF
MUCAPE WILL BE PRESENT. PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS SLIGHTLY
TRICKIER FOR THOSE NORTH OF I- 94. THERE REMAINS THE OUTSIDE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN (~10%) AT ONSET
TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THESE AREAS AS A WARM NOSE IN THE 850-750HPA
LAYER IS DEPICTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS ATOP NEAR FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES BEFORE WARMER AIR WORKS ITS WAY NORTHWARD. AS THIS
HAPPENS, CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN AN ALL LIQUID P-TYPE. AS THE
LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY, COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO
THE REGION, RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN. THIS WILL PROMOTE A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW FOR THOSE
NORTH OF I-94 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GIVEN THE OVERALL PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS WAVE, AMOUNTS WILL
FORTUNATELY BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED. THE AXIS OF HIGHEST QPF IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE
16.00Z LREF MEAN QPF SITS AROUND 0.4-0.5 INCHES FOR THOSE NORTH
OF I-94 WITH A 20-40% PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 0.5". ANY SNOWFALL
WILL BE WET AND HEAVY WITH SNOW RATIOS AROUND 5-8:1.
APART FROM THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, BREEZY WINDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT ENHANCED LOW LEVEL FLOW, UPWARDS OF 40-45KTS ATOP
THE MIXED LAYER, IN TURN SUPPORTING 25-35MPH WINDS AT THE
SURFACE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS BEHIND THE LOW AS IT DEPARTS EASTWARD WILL
PROMOTE EFFICIENT MOMENT TRANSFER OF THESE WINDS TO THE SURFACE
ON WEDNESDAY. AS SUCH, THE 16.01Z NBM CONTINUES TO DEPICT SOME
LOW POTENTIAL FOR A 45MPH GUST WEDNESDAY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER, GENERALLY 20-40% BUT DEPENDENT ON THE DEPTH OF MIXING
REALIZED, 45MPH GUSTS MAY BECOME MORE ATTAINABLE.
LATE WEEK SYSTEM
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THE LREF CONSTITUENTS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS, PUTTING
OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW. THERE REMAINS SOME
VARIATION AMONGST THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
DEPTH, BUT THE CURRENT CONSENSUS RESULTS IN SNOW BEING THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE EXPECTED. CURRENT PROBABILITIES
FOR MEASURABLE SNOW IN THE 16.00Z LREF SIT AROUND 50-70%, 40-60%
IN THE 16.01Z NBM, BUT WITH AN EXPECTED BANDED NATURE, AMOUNTS
AND THEIR LOCATION ARE LIKELY TO VARY IN THE COMING DAYS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL BACK
TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS COLD AIR ADVECTS IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TWO DEPARTING SYSTEMS, RESULTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ARE CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE 16.01Z NBM
MEAN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 35-40KTS CONTINUE PIVOTING EASTWARD
THROUGH 18Z, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF 20-25KT GUSTS. SITES AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS STILL HAVE A RISK OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
THROUGH 15Z, AFTER WHICH LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE WOULD BE FAVORED
OWING TO DIURNAL MIXING. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 5-10KT
AREAWIDE BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT IN A CLOCKWISE MANNER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BECOMING EASTERLY AFTER 00Z. OUTSIDE OF THE
WINDS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
HERE ARE SOME OF THE RECORD HIGH AND WARM LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR LA CROSSE AND ROCHESTER FOR FEBRUARY 16.
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16
(RECORD/FORECAST):
HIGH TEMP
----------------------------------------
ROCHESTER, MN 59 (1931) / 54
LA CROSSE, WI 60 (1921/1981) / 57
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD WARM LOWS MONDAY, FEBRUARY 16
(RECORD/FORECAST):
WARM LOW TEMP
----------------------------------------
ROCHESTER, MN 35 (1931) / 37
LA CROSSE, WI 40 (1981) / 33
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FALKINHAM
AVIATION...FALKINHAM
CLIMATE...FALKINHAM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page