581
FXUS63 KARX 170524
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1124 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH
POCKETS OF BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE MOSTLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL DIMINISHES THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.5 TO 2" WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW ON SUNDAY WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE (50 TO 70%) FOR AT
LEAST 1" OF SNOW FALLING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90.
- COLDER THIS WEEKEND THEN TURNING BITTERLY COLD INTO MONDAY
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
WIND CHILLS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE BETWEEN -20F TO
-30F FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE CONSTANTLY EVOLVING FORECAST OF THE LAST FEW DAYS PERSISTS THIS
AFTERNOON AS BURSTS OF SNOW ON RADAR HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CONFINED
UPSTREAM INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA; ACCOMPANYING THE COLDEST
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, INDICATIVE OF STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WITHIN
THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CAA. WHILE BELOW FREEZING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA LIMIT INITIAL IMPACT CONCERNS AS ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 1", ABOVE FREEZING AIR TEMPERATURES AND NEAR FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN RAISE
FLASH FREEZING CONCERNS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW-MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS IS EXERTING INFLUENCE ON NEAR SURFACE DRY AIR ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR; EVIDENT IN DECREASING CLOUD
TOP TEMPERATURES ON GOES INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALSO EVIDENT IN
DARKENING CLOUD BASES ON WEBCAM IMAGERY FROM THE FORECAST OFFICE.
REGARDLESS, HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL WILL ACCOMPANY COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LIMITING MELTING ON ROADWAYS BEFORE SUBSEQUENT
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES.
THE SURFACE LOW JAUNTS EAST-NORTHEAST TONIGHT, LINGERING AND
INTENSIFYING A NARROW BAND OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS NEAR/OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE NAILING DOWN EXACT LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF
THIS MOSTLY MOBILE FRONTOGENESIS BAND REMAINS THE INHERENT CHALLENGE
IN SNOW FORECASTS, A THICK, WIDESPREAD, NEAR-SURFACE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE SUGGESTS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE LIKELY. LIMITED
RATES AND TRANSIENT FORCING LIMITS CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL
AMOUNTS AS HIGHEST IMPACTS WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON FROZEN
ROADWAYS- PERPETUATING TRAVEL IMPACTS.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN, SNOW RETURNS SUNDAY
THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BRINGING A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF
SHORTWAVE RIDGING TO THE REGION. THIS WILL MAKE SATURDAY EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT DRY. HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS A QUITE COMPACT WAVE THAT IN SOME MODELS
DOES CLOSE OFF IN THE UPPER LEVELS, INDICATING THAT THERE WILL BE
GOOD LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DESPITE THIS GOOD LIFT, THIS SYSTEM
LACKS DEEPER MOISTURE AS PWATS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.15 TO 0.25".
THE WAVE IS ALSO QUICK MOVING SO SNOW AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-90 WHERE 0.5 TO 1.0" WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCATIONS IN
NORTHEAST IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WILL SEE LESS THAN
0.5". AMOUNTS COULD CHANGE BASED ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE WAVE GOES SO
BE SURE TO MONITOR FOR FORECAST CHANGES.
AS THIS WAVE TRANSLATES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE TIMING OF WHEN THIS HAPPENS IN REGARDS TO THE
FALLING SNOW WILL BE IMPORTANT AS CURRENT FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING AS WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE. THE STRONGER
WINDS CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/SUNDAY EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. IF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS MORE, THEN WIND SPEEDS MAY INCREASE MORE.
WINDS WILL DECREASE MONDAY AS THE PARENT TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD.
MONDAY-FRIDAY: BITTER COLD MONDAY, STAYING COLD THROUGH THE WEEK
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE ARCTIC AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE REGION. LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS 850MB TEMPERATURES
MONDAY MORNING BETWEEN -23 AND -28C. OVER THE NEXT WEEK, MONDAY WILL
HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AS THE ARCTIC AIR REMAINS OVER THE
AREA FOR THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE IN THE LOW SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WITH AREAS NORTH OF I-94 STAYING BELOW ZERO. LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY MORNING ARE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE CWA WITH SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF
I-94 IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. WHILE THE AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLUSTERY THROUGH
THE DAY. APPARENT TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM -10 TO -20F, WHILE MONDAY MORNING WILL HAVE APPARENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE -20 TO -30F RANGE. LREF PROBABILITIES FOR
APPARENT TEMPERATURES LESS THAN -25F ARE BETWEEN 60 AND 90%. GIVEN
THESE FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MORNING, A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF THESE
VALUES REMAIN.
HIGH TEMPERATURE STAY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST REMAIN UNDER A
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUOUSLY BRING COLDER AIR DOWN FROM
CANADA. WIND CHILLS FOR TUESDAY MORNING WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD WITH
VALUES BETWEEN -10 AND -20F. PERIODIC SNOW CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
PERIODIC SNOW WILL CONTINUE ALONG AN 950-850 MB FRONTOGENETIC
BAND LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 IN WISCONSIN THROUGH LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL IMPACT BOTH KLSE AND KRST. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. IN ADDITION, IT WILL PRODUCE PERIODIC
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE/CECAVA/JAR
AVIATION...BOYNE
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