177  
FXUS63 KARX 120555  
AFDARX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI  
1255 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS PROGRESS NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST  
IOWA, SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN, AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE  
DAYTIME HOURS. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED ALONG  
SOUTHERN PERIPHERAL COUNTIES WHERE 1"+ OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.  
 
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH START  
OF NEW WEEK, EVENTUALLY INCREASING TUESDAY, LASTING THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
TONIGHT: STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE  
 
ELEVATED CONVECTION BEHIND A WARM FRONT/BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY IS  
STARTING TO POP UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS  
AFTERNOON. MANY OF THESE STORMS ARE MEAGER AT BEST WITH BETTER  
INSTABILITY RESIDING MUCH FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE SBCAPE IS GREATER THAN 1500 J/KG. A SURFACE  
LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA WITH A  
CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PRESENT ACROSS  
IOWA IN 18Z 500 MB ANALYSIS. AS WE ARE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT  
AND QUASI BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY, THE SEVERE THREAT OVERALL LOOKS  
PRETTY MARGINAL BUT THERE IS A MINOR THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WITH  
THESE INITIAL STORMS, BECOMING MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT  
LATER ON (ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WITH  
DCAPES GREATER THAN 500 J/KG) AS THEY WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE  
INTO MORE OF A MCS/QLCS TYPE FEATURE WITH TIME. VERTICAL SHEAR  
OVERALL IS MARGINAL AT 20-30 KTS WITH SOME POCKETS OF 35 KTS  
ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BEING AIDED/ENHANCED BY THE  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, LIKELY WAINING AFTER 00Z.  
 
WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT ISN'T LOOKING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR OUR  
AREA, THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS MUCH BETTER. AREAL PWATS SIT  
AT 1.5-1.8 INCHES AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE APPROACHING 3 KFT. ANY  
STORMS WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS SO IF WE SEE ANY  
TRAINING ACTIVITY, THIS COULD LEAD TO SIGNFICIANT PONDING OR  
LOCALIZED FLOODING. 11.12Z HREF MEAN PRECIP TOTALS LOOK TO BE IN THE  
.5 TO 1.25 INCH RANGE FOR NORTHEASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWESTERN  
WISCONSIN WITH LOWER TOTALS TO THE NORTH. DUE TO THE CONVECTIVE  
NATURE OF THE STORMS, THERE REMAINS SOME PRETTY SIGNIFICANT  
DIFFERENCES IN THE 75TH-25TH PERCENTILES WITH THE 75TH AROUND 1.5-2  
INCHES AND THE 25TH PERCENTILE LESS THAN .25 INCHES. UNLESS WE START  
TO SEE SOME EXCESSIVE TRAINING, THE MEAN HREF TOTALS LOOK  
REASONABLE. RECENT (LAST 24 HOURS) RAINFALL ACROSS GRANT/CLAYTON  
COUNTIES WERE GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.25 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST  
RAINS STAYING SOUTH OF OUR AREA MORE TOWARDS DUBUQUE, DELAWARE, AND  
BUCHANAN COUNTIES. SOILS AND RIVERS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE ABLE  
TO HANDLE THE RAIN, KEEPING WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS AT BAY FOR  
THE TIME BEING. A "COLD FRONT" ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW ACROSS  
WESTERN ONTARIO WILL PUSH UNTO OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT WHICH COULD  
BRING SOME ADDITIONAL LOW END RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS BEFORE EXITING OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES  
SHOULD GENERALLY BE OVER BY 12Z FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI  
WITH LOW CHANCES (20-30%) LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING  
OFF TO THE EAST.  
 
SUNDAY - MONDAY: LIKELY DRY, WARMING TEMPERATURES  
 
A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER VALLEY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LIKELY KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY  
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WE'LL SEE MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE  
AREA, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO START CLIMBING BACK INTO  
THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MONDAY WITH A FEW PLACES MAYBE EVEN REACHING  
THE 90 DEGREE THRESHOLD. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING  
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS, OUR AREA WILL BE IN NORTHWEST TO WEAKLY  
ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK. A STRAY SHOWER CANNOT BE  
RULED OUT SUNDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN,  
BUT THE GENERAL TREND SHOULD REMAIN DRY.  
 
TUESDAY AND BEYOND: WET MID-WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES  
 
WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND MID RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK  
TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND SUBSEQUENTLY  
MOVING EAST INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES ARE  
NOT WELL RESOLVED IN THE MID/LONG RANGE MODELS BUT MOISTURE WILL BE  
REINFORCED BY THEN WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW HELPING  
TO DEEPEN AREAL MOISTURE. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, POPS  
INCREASE TO LIKELY (50-70%), ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  
HOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES BEYOND MID-NEXT WEEK IS STILL  
UNCERTAIN BUT WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OF THE NBM FOR  
THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN  
THE 70S TO LOW 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. DURING THE  
EARLY AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES (20 TO 30%) REMAIN FOR CENTRAL  
WISCONSIN. SOME PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES AND CIGS DROPPING  
INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. IF ENOUGH LOW-  
LEVEL SATURATION TAKES PLACE, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LIGHT  
SURFACE WINDS, THE FOG MAY BECOME MORE DENSE AND RESULT IN LIFR  
VISIBILITIES AND CIGS. ANY FOG AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OR LEAVE THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. WITH  
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SOME HAZY SKIES WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY  
EVENING AS SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES PUSHES DOWN INTO THE  
REGION.  
 

 
   
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WI...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE  
AVIATION...CECAVA  
 
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