348
FXUS63 KARX 291128
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
528 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REMAINING VERY COLD THROUGH SATURDAY AND THEN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES RETURN FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK LIKELY FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
FROM TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY, AND GREAT LAKES. THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED
DOWNWIND FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND ALONG THE BETTER FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING TO OUR WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE, IN OUR
AREA, THERE WAS SOME DISCUSSION ABOUT ADDING SOME FLURRIES TO
THE FORECAST, BUT WITH THE MOISTURE BEING RATHER SHALLOW WITH
LESS THAN 50 MB AND THIS MOISTURE BEING OUTSIDE OF DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE, IT WAS DECIDED TO LEAVE THEM OUT AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 15 AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
THE WESTERN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
AND THEN FLATTEN. AS THIS OCCURS, PACIFIC AIR MASSES WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER AND MID-20S.
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS VERY LIKELY
WITH 90 PERCENT OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING AT 0.1
INCHES OF SNOW. AS FAR AS LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW, THE
PROBABILITIES RANGE FROM ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 40 PERCENT
PROBABILITY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94, AND LESS THAN 25 PERCENT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. THE HIGHER END SOLUTIONS ARE IN THE
1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW LOOKS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. 60 PERCENT OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
HAVE AT LEAST 0.1 INCHES OF SNOW. UP TO 25 PERCENT MEMBERS
PRODUCE AT LEAST 1 INCH OF SNOW. THE HIGHER END SOLUTIONS
ARE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
CEILINGS WILL BE LOWERING TO AROUND 5K FEET DURING THE MID- TO
LATE EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT, THE CEILINGS MAY BECOME IFR/MVFR.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BOYNE
AVIATION...BOYNE
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