889
FXUS63 KARX 190524
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1224 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN & SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS MORNING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S GIVES WAY
TO MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20S
AREAWIDE.
- DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO START THE WORK WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL NOT RETURNING UNTIL THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
SUNDAY - MONDAY: SNOW SHOWERS THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE DRY AND COOL
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND NEAR THE SURFACE WILL PAVE THE WAY FOR
A FAIRLY COOL SUNDAY ACROSS THE AREA MORE LIKE MID-MARCH, CERTAINLY
A CHANGE OF PACE FROM OUR CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST WEEK! AS WE HEAD
INTO OUR SUNDAY MORNING, A QUICK HITTING 500MB SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS BRINGING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVERALL, THE CAMS ARE
SOMEWHAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS, EVEN SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. AS A RESULT, CANNOT RULE OUT
(10-30% CHANCE IN THE RECENT NBM) SOME VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
(A COUPLE OF TENTHS) ON COOLER AND ELEVATED SURFACES. OTHERWISE,
SKIES WILL CLEAR TOWARDS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY, KEEPING US
PRECIPITATION FREE. HOWEVER, WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY MORNING COULD TUMBLE
INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, SO MAY WANT TO PROTECT ANY
PLANTS YOU MAY HAVE PUT OUTSIDE AFTER THIS LAST WEEK OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES.
TUESDAY - FRIDAY: WARMER, SHOWER & STORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY
BY THE TIME TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ROLL AROUND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EASTWARD AND IS REPLACED BY A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS COMBINED WITH SURFACE FLOW TURNING TO SOUTHERLY ON
MONDAY WILL AID IN PUSHING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOCAL AREA FOR TUESDAY WITH THE NBM INTER-QUARTILE SPREAD RANGING
FROM UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S ON TUESDAY, WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER
PERCENTILES OF THE NBM REACHING INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, DRIER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY THURSDAY AS
A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A RESPECTABLE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT
THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH FAIRLY RESPECTABLE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WOULD THINK THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WOULD BE FAIRLY LIKELY, WITH THE NBM ALREADY HAVING HIGH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (60-80%) WITH ITS PASSAGE. HOWEVER, ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS MUCH LESS CERTAIN AS PROBABILITIES IN THE GEFS &
GEPS FOR US TO GET SBCAPE OF OVER 1000 J/KG ARE FAIRLY LOW
(10-30%) AT THIS POINT. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE CURRENT STRONGER
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK FAVORED OVER WESTERN MN AND THE DAKOTAS,
WOULD THINK SHEAR PROFILES WOULD BE LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS THEY WOULD BE DISPLACED FROM THE
POOL OF INSTABILITY. ML AND AI SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS GENERALLY
SHARE THIS SENTIMENT FOR THURSDAY AS THE HIGHEST RELATIVE
PROBABILITIES IN THIS REGIME STAY TO OUR WEST. CERTAINLY STILL
PLENTY OF TIME FOR DETAILS TO SHIFT BUT WOULD SAY CONFIDENCE FOR
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION. AN AREA OF SNOW
SHOWERS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA WILL MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE DRIFTLESS REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME TRANSIENT MVFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS ARE
STILL TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING GROUP. THERE REMAINS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL IMPACT SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA SO HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 AT THE
KRST TERMINAL, LEAVING ANY MENTION OUT OF KLSE FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL AGAIN COME DOWN AFTER 00Z.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS PERSIST FOR SITES ALONG THE YELLOW,
WISCONSIN AND AT MCGREGOR ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH MANY OF
THESE SITES EXPECTED TO CREST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED THIS
MORNING AND OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH MID-WEEK, MINIMAL
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THESE BASINS.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NAYLOR
AVIATION...BARENDSE
HYDROLOGY...NAYLOR
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