325
FXUS63 KARX 280606
AFDARX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
106 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY
DUE TO STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES.
- TEMPERATURES GO ON A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE IN THE 60S AND BY MONDAY ARE
IN THE 60S AND 70S.
- MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30 TO 60%) FOR NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
SATURDAY - MONDAY: CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SATURDAY, WARMING THROUGH
MONDAY
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITS SQUARELY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING, LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT QUICKLY TIGHTENING
THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL ROCKIES. AS WINDS START TO PICK UP UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, THIS WILL ALLOW EVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT TO WORK ITS WAY
DOWN TO THE SURFACE (VIA 28.00 HREF SOUNDINGS) CAUSING DEW POINTS TO
LOWER EVEN FURTHER WITH RH VALUES BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 15-25
PERCENT. THE ONE GOOD THING TO NOTE ABOUT THIS EVENT WILL BE THE
FACT THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RHS WILL NOT BE CO-LOCATED
AS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND THE
LOWEST RHS SHOULD GENERALLY BE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI IN WISCONSIN.
EVEN THOUGH THE LOWER RHS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE RIVER, RHS WILL
STILL BE VERY LOW ACROSS SE MINNESOTA AND NE IOWA. COMBINED
PROBABILITIES OF RHS LESS THAN 25 PERCENT AND SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 20 MPH ARE IN THE 60-70% RANGE FOR MUCH OF
OUR AREA WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH LEADS TO DECENTLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, HAVE COLLABORATED WITH THE MINNESOTA
AND IOWA DNRS AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT
FROM NOON TO 7PM SATURDAY. AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ON THE WISCONSIN
SIDE OF THE RIVER, HAVE ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR FIRE
DANGER ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AS FUELS IN THIS REGION ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE PRIMED TO BURN. THE RECENT RAINFALL YESTERDAY ACROSS
SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD BURNING THOUGH LOW RHS
AND DECENT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY BURNING.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL START TO REBOUND FROM TODAY'S COOL
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S. WITH THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON AN UPWARD TREND WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY BACK INTO THE 60S. BY MONDAY, NBM 28.01
PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 70 DEGREES ARE 60-90%
FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE CHIMNEY WITH FORECAST HIGHS ALREADY IN
THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TUESDAY - END OF NEXT WEEK: PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN
AS THE UPPER HIGH DOMINATING THE PATTERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
CONUS RIGHT NOW WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY TUESDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE BRINGING RAIN CHANCES WITH
IT. AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH, RAIN CHANCES WILL
GENERALLY COME TO AN END FOR THE TIME BEING WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT SHOULD LARGELY
WIPE OUT THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, PUSHING IT TO OUR
SOUTH. WHILE THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STAY SOUTH OF THE REGION, IT
LOOKS TO BECOME MORE QUASI-STATIONARY, PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS
FOR POTENTIAL RAIN/CONVECTION MID TO LATE WEEK. WHERE THIS
FRONT STALLS WILL BE IMPORTANT BECAUSE PRECIPITATION SEEMS MORE
LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT BUT IF IT'S TOO FAR SOUTH
THEN OUR AREA MIGHT NOT SEE AS MUCH. SO THIS WILL BE A DETAIL
WE'RE PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO OVER THE COMING DAYS. BY LATE
WEEK, WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND WILL ALLOW
WARM, MOIST AIR BACK INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER, POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT, SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING IN FOR
THE WEEKEND. THERE'S STILL PLENTY OF QUESTIONS ON THE TIMING
AND INTENSITY OF FORCING MECHANISMS ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE
WILL CERTAINLY BE AVAILABLE TUESDAY AND THEN AGAIN LATER IN THE
WEEK BUT WHETHER THE LIFT AND OVERALL PATTERN WILL PAN OUT FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES REMAINS TO BE SEEN. BOTH EC AND
GEFS MEMBERS HAVE BEGUN TO HONE IN ON THE TUESDAY AND FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND TIMEFRAMES FOR QPF SO WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON THESE GOING FORWARD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE 28.06Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS AT ISSUANCE STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, REMAINING STRONG THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONGEST
WINDS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LOCALLY IN SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA WITH GUSTS 35+ KTS AND 25+ KTS
ELSEWHERE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW. SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PICK UP BEHIND A DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH GUSTS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE.
WHILE THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY SURFACE LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE
REGION, THERE IS EVEN DRIER AIR SLIGHTLY ALOFT AND WITH DEEPER
MIXING EXPECTED, THIS SHOULD WORK ITS WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. RHS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 15-25
PERCENT RANGE AREAWIDE. WITH THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND
SUB 30 PERCENT RHS, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SE
MINNESOTA AND NE IOWA FROM NOON TO 7PM TOMORROW. WEST OF THE
RIVER IN WISCONSIN, WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS HIGH
AND FUELS NOT AS RECEPTIVE THANKS TO SOME LIGHT RAINFALL
YESTERDAY. RHS WILL STILL BE VERY LOW SO SPOTTY FIRES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WILL BE IN PLACE FOR WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD AS THE RED FLAG
WARNING (NOON TO 7PM) WITH NOTHING IN EFFECT FOR SW WISCONSIN.
SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WILL BE HOW WELL
WE CAN MIX THAT DRIER AIR ALOFT TO THE SURFACE. IF WE OVER-
ACHIEVE ON MIXING, THIS COULD LEAD TO EVEN STRONGER WINDS AND
LOWER RHS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.
DISCUSSION...BARENDSE
AVIATION...JAR
FIRE WEATHER...BARENDSE
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