999
FXUS63 KFGF 181242
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
642 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2 TODAY, DIMINISHING TONIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
- ELSEWHERE, SNOW OR WINTRY MIX TODAY INTO TONIGHT, BUT TOTALS
WILL BE LOWER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 450 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
SFC MAP AT 10Z SHOWS SURFACE LOW NEAR ORTONVILLE MN. UPPER LOW
IS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MN NEAR MARSHALL. MOISTURE FEED AROUND
THIS UPPER LOW DOES EXIST WESTWARD ACROSS THE FCST AREA BUT OVER
TIME AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE
CUTOFF SO THAT THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT MORE GENERAL LIGHT SNOW.
THIS LIGHT SNOW LASTS INTO THURSDAY. IN WARNING AREA
HIGHLIGHTING THE STORM TOTAL 5-10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. RADAR HAS SHOWN OVERNIGHT VARIABLE INTENSITY RETURNS
INDICATING LIKELY HIGHLY VARIABLE SNOW RATES THUS LEADING TO
HIGHER THAN USUAL RANGE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. DID EXPAND THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SOUTHWARD INTO REST OF SE ND INTO WC MN
AS RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW WITH POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW THRU TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..SYNOPSIS
LOCATED IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 150 KNOT JET,
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE WYOMING ROCKIES HAS BEEN ONGOING
THIS MORNING, WITH A 985 MB LOW NOW ANALYZED JUST OFF THE
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. THIS LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
ND/MT BORDER, FILLING WITH TIME. MEANWHILE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH, SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS NORTHERN
NE AND SOUTHERN SD. THIS LINES UP WELL WITH WHERE ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW IS ADVERTISED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO DEVELOP, TRACK
AND DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. RIDGING UPSTREAM WILL HELP TO
SLOW THE SYSTEM DOWN, ALLOWING IT TO MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A LARGE,
IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM STARTING THIS EVENING, PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER, NORTHWEST FLOW COUPLED WITH A
FRESH SNOWPACK WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO MAY TRACK THROUGH THE REGION
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT PREDICTABILITY
IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO DETERMINE WHEN/IF IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
..WINTER STORM
SATELLITE DISPLAYS A DYNAMIC SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. STRONG ASCENT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE DAKOTAS IS
CAUSING REGIONAL RADAR TO LIGHT UP WITH ECHOS. ENOUGH DRY AIR IN THE
COLUMN IS KEEPING MOST OF THESE RETURNS FROM REACHING THE GROUND.
HOWEVER, THIS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AS THE LOW TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE SD/NE STATE LINE
RAPIDLY DEEPENS, A STRONG BAND OF FRONTOGENSIS WILL WORK FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH ACROSS OUR FA. EVERYTHING IS IN PLACE TO HELP FUEL HEAVY
PRECIPITATION RATES, RANGING FROM A LOW LEVEL JET OF UP TO 70 KNOTS
FEEDING MOISTURE INTO AN ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN THAT FEATURES LAPSE
RATES OF UP TO 7 C/KM. THIS NORTHWARD LIFTING BAND WILL FORM
DURING THE EVENING HOURS, AND PERSIST MUCH OF TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES. WITH
INSTABILITY PRESENT, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN.
AS TEMPERATURES FALL THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY SNOW. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR FIRST
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1+ INCH PER HOUR
ARE FORECASTED WITHIN THIS BAND. RIGHT NOW, THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO
EXPERIENCE 1+ INCH PER HOUR RATES IS ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN LOCKED ONTO THE
IDEA FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO OF A FURTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER
STORM. CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE DEVELOPING LOW, ALONG WITH
WHERE WE ARE OBSERVING PRESSURE FALLS IN NORTHERN NE/SOUTHERN SD
WOULD SEEM TO CONFIRM THIS. RECENT CAM MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO
FALLEN IN LINE WITH THE IDEA OF A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK OVER THE
PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. OVERNIGHT, RADAR TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED IN CASE ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES SOUTH NEEDS TO BE
ADDED TO EITHER THE WARNING OR ADVISORY HEADLINES.
WHEN YOU COMBINE THE HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WITH EASTERLY WINDS OF UP
TO 30 MPH, BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
SEVERAL HOURS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING AREA. THESE VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL BE STRONGLY TIED TO SNOWFALL RATES. SNOWFALL
RATES WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WITH WANDERING BANDS OF HEAVIER SNOW STILL LIKELY
AREA WIDE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS SNOW
FINALLY LIGHTENS UP. HOWEVER, FOR AREAS THAT SEE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS, SEVERE DRIFTING SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE
IMPACTS EVEN IF VISIBILITIES IMPROVE.
AS FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS, A GENERAL 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST
FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. THERE WILL BE POCKETS
THAT RECEIVE MORE THEN THIS, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE THE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE HEAVY SNOW BAND LOOKS TO
BE A BIT LONGER, WITH SOMEONE LIKELY TO SEE A FOOT OF SNOW. ONE
WAY TO GAUGE HOW MUCH SNOW YOUR LOCATION WILL RECEIVE IS BEFORE
GOING TO BED, ASK YOURSELF WHEN YOU LOOK OUTSIDE, IS IT
SNOWING? IF YOU ARE ALREADY SEEING SNOW AT 8-11 PM, FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENT YOU WILL EXPERIENCE SNOW, AND YOUR TOTALS
WILL BE TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF THE SNOWFALL RANGE. IF IT IS
STILL RAINING AT 11PM, THAT WILL EAT INTO SNOWFALL TOTALS, SO
WHEN YOU WAKE UP WEDNESDAY MORNING, DO NOT BE SURPRISED IF ONLY
A COUPLE OF INCHES HAVE ACCUMULATED. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY BE
TRUE IN PLACES LIKE GRAND FORKS, HILLSBORO, THIEF RIVER FALLS,
AND BEMIDJI. ONE LAST IMPACT TO TOUCH ON: RAINFALL TOTALS JUST
SOUTH OF WHERE WE TRANSITION TO SNOW WILL BE QUITE HEAVY, A
QUARTER INCH OR GREATER. IF THIS OCCURS OVER AN URBAN AREA,
WHERE ICE IS BLOCKING DRAINAGES, PONDING OF WATER MAY OCCUR.
OVERALL, THIS WILL BE A DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH A WIDE VARIETY OF
IMPACTS. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST, AND HEED ANY
WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES THAT HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
SNOW IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA AND AT ALL TAF
SITES. CEILINGS LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW 1000 FT AGL THRU THE DAY
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT VSBYS WILL VARY IN SNOWFALL FROM 1/2SM TO
OVER 3SM AT TIMES. WINDS EAST-NORTHEAST 10-20 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-026-027-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ024-
028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ001-
004>009-013>017.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ002-
003-022>024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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