507  
FXUS63 KFGF 071739  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022  
 
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, CENTRAL  
RRV, AND NORTHWESTERN MN. AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS CONTINUE TO BE  
MINIMAL. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO  
THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022  
 
AN AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED TO PUSH INTO OUR  
WESTERN COUNTIES, BUT NOT EVERYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND, AND EVEN FROM  
THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ANY AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS WILL BE LIGHT.  
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, BUT KEPT THE OVERALL MESSAGE  
THAT WE HAVE GOING.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022  
 
ADDED IN SOME POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING RAIN  
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND UPSTREAM RAIN OVER THE BIS  
CWA THAT IS ON A GRADUAL EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. OTHERWISE, FORECAST  
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND  
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022  
 
OVERVIEW...  
 
SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY.  
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE, IN THE UPPER  
60S TO LOW 70S TODAY BEFORE WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,  
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN  
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING ENOUGH FORCING TODAY FOR SPORADIC RAIN SHOWER  
ACTIVITY TO IMPACT THE FA. LATEST CAMS SHOW AN INITIAL PUSH OF LIGHT  
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING WITH AN IMPULSE  
COMING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AFFECTING MUCH  
OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT HREF  
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME VARIABILITY REGARDING COVERAGE OF THESE RAIN  
SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST  
CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY. REGARDLESS, ANY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL  
LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE, WITH ONLY AN ADDITIONAL FEW  
HUNDREDTHS TO MAYBE A LOCALIZED TENTH OF AN INCH OF NEW RAINFALL  
ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND A  
LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING, INSTABILITY WILL BE AT A PREMIUM TODAY. AS  
A RESULT, NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT MOST  
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DO FORM.  
 
AS QUICKLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ARRIVES, IT IS ALSO  
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
THIS MAY LEAD TO RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA  
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. MOVING INTO MONDAY,  
A CLEAN SLATE IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE  
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND, IN TANDEM, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS  
TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THE MAIN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA, TEMPERATURES,  
NONETHELESS, WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S  
TO LOW 80S ON MONDAY. OWING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT,  
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES  
LOOKING LIKELY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022  
 
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, NOT SEEING MUCH FOR IMPACTFUL  
WEATHER. A ZONAL 500MB PATTERN WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE  
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE  
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA  
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH  
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT IT WILL KNOCK DOWN HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY INTO  
THURSDAY, TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.  
 
THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND DOES SHIFT  
A LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON  
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE MOST  
UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES BY SATURDAY, BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR  
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR MORE  
NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY (LOW 80S). RIDGE RIDING SHORT WAVES LOOK  
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME, BUT THESE DON'T APPEAR LIKELY TO  
BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION. AT MOST, MAYBE JUST SOME DYING SHOWERS  
WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, AS SOME LIGHT  
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SOME VCSH OR -RA BUT THINK THAT THERE  
WILL NOT BE ANY IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY AS THE RAIN IS VERY LIGHT.  
WINDS THAT ARE NORTHWESTERLY AT SOME SITES WILL BECOME LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE, EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS BY  
THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 
UPDATE...JR  
SHORT TERM...RICK  
LONG TERM...GODON  
AVIATION...JR  
 
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