012
FXUS63 KFGF 190900
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATE AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ALTA/SASK
BORDER AND A SECOND UPPER LOW WAS OVER NW WA.
AN MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SE MT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERE FORECAST TO BE QUITE
UNSTABLE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SD AND SOUTHERN MN WILL MOVE
NORTH INTO CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON.
MORE STABLE AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME COOLING OCCURS IN
THE LOWER LAYERS WHILE SOME WARMING OCCURS ALOFT. NOT SO IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE LOWER
LAYERS AND SOME DRYING OCCURS ALOFT. LOW LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHWEST MN
SHIFTS TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST SD LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SAT MORNING AND PRODUCE A THREAT FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER IN THE FAR
SOUTH FRI NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT FRI JUL 19 2019
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT
ON A REINFORCING SHORTWAVE COMING ACROSS ND ON SUNDAY, BUT THE
OPERATIONAL GFS BREAKS OUT QUITE A BIT OF PRECIP WHILE THE ECMWF
DOESN'T HAVE MUCH AT ALL. NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE
OPERATIONAL GFS IS A WET OUTLIER ON THE GEFS PLUMES, SO WILL KEEP
PRECIP OUT FOR THE TIME BEING. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, LEAVING OUR REGION IN DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMING BACK UP TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE AS THE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE RIDGE BREAKING
DOWN WITH A SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF IT BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON TIMING. KEPT THE MINIMAL
POPS THAT THE BLEND GAVE US.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT THU JUL 18 2019
WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN CLEAR FRIDAY LATE
DAY OR EVENING. CLOUD BASES LOOK TO BE AOA 8000 FT AGL WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MIX. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND 10 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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