591
FXUS63 KFGF 302007
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
207 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW MAY IMPACT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
- BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2
INCHES MAY STILL BRING SUB-ADVISORY TYPE IMPACTS TO THE EARLY
MORNING COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
..SYNOPSIS
GENERAL UPPER RIDGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER TROUGHING
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD ATTACHED TO AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
HUDSON BAY PLACES OUR REGION GENERALLY IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PROMOTE QUICK
MOVING, WEAK CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. EACH WILL BRING ITS OWN BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT
WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF TODAY'S WEAK CLIPPER WHICH HAS RESULTED IN FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
THIS WILL ALSO PROMOTE GENERALLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
BEHIND A BACKDOOR-TYPE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
TODAY. AFTER TODAY'S ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN 20S AND 30S,
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS
ABOVE ZERO, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO.
TOWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING IN THE
WEST WILL TEND TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE VARIES IN HOW AMPLIFIED THIS RIDGE WILL BE, DICTATING
HOW WARM (OR NOT WARM) TEMPERATURES WILL TREND. A STRONGER, MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WOULD PROMOTE AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES (INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES), ALONG WITH THE PERIODS OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX
INCLUDING MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN AS WELL AS LIGHT
SNOW. WEAKER/LESS AMPLIFIED RIDGING WOULD PROMOTE TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO AVERAGE, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW IN LIEU OF WINTRY
MIX.
THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SIGNAL FOR STRONG/SIGNIFICANT WINTER
PRECIPITATION NOR HIGH WINDS WITHIN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY.
..WINTRY MIX THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO RESULT IN LIGHT
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT SNOW WITHIN PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. AIR TEMPERATURES
ON ITS WESTERN FLANK HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING, ALONG WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES VIA RWIS OBSERVATIONS. THIS HAS MITIGATED
ANY ICE IMPACTS GENERALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHERN VALLEY). THUS, THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LIGHT ICE IMPACTING TRAVEL CONDITIONS IS LARGELY
CONFINED TO MINNESOTA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS THE WEAK SURFACE LOW DEPARTS, A BACKDOOR-TYPE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL TEND TO SHUNT ANY RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THAT
WOULD FEED CONTINUING WINTRY MIX INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
IN SUSTAINED FREEZING DRIZZLE PRODUCTION TO DEPOSIT ADDITIONAL
GLAZE OF ICE IN THESE AREAS, THUS THE 3 PM EXPIRATION TIME OF
THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK AS
FORCING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A
20% CHANCE TRAVEL IMPACTS ENSUE IN THESE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
SHOULD THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BE ENOUGH TO FORCE SUSTAINED
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO EXISTENCE.
THUS, THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM GLAZE
OF ICE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITHIN PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, AND
WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
WHILE BLOWING SNOW WAS PREVIOUSLY MESSAGED TO BE A POTENTIAL
IMPACT TOWARD TRAVEL CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, VAST
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE HAVE COME INTO AGREEMENT IN WINDS REMAINING
LOW ENOUGH MITIGATE THIS POTENTIAL IMPACT. BREEZY WINDS WILL
STILL BE ABLE TO CREATE MINOR DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN COUNTRY.
..LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
THE NEXT QUICK MOVING CLIPPER-TYPE FEATURE TO TRAVERSE THE
REGION COMES LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION
TYPE AS SNOW. SYNOPTIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SNOW IS
GREATLY LACKING, IF AT ALL EXISTENT. LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL ALMOST BE PURELY MESOSCALE-DRIVEN IN THE
FORM OF TRANSIENT FRONTOGENESIS SLIDING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN TRANSIENT, UNORGANIZED
YET ELONGATED BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS OUR
AREA. WHILE FRONTOGENESIS COMMONLY CAN LEAD TO 'HIGHER END' SNOW
AMOUNTS, THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO IS NOT ONE OF THEM - MAINLY
DUE TO ABSENCE OF MORE ORGANIZED SYNOPTIC FORCING AND A
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE THAT DOES PROMOTE HIGH SLRS. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A DEFT IN UPRIGHT INSTABILITY; HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE
SOME SLANTWISE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THE FRONTAL CIRCULATION
TO UTILIZE. THUS, THERE COULD BE SOME TRANSIENT BURST OF HIGHER
SNOW RATES OVER LOCALIZED AREAS.
ULTIMATELY, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS SNOW IS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE HALF INCH TO AROUND 2 INCH RANGE. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
TRANSIENT BURST OF MODERATE SNOWFALL AS WELL AS ACCUMULATIONS
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES, SUB-ADVISORY IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE (50%).
THIS MAY IMPACT THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE, AS EVEN LIGHTLY
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS NEAR HALF A MILE
COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
BY SUNRISE, MOST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO HAVE ALREADY DEPARTED OUR
AREA INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 121 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE FORECAST AT TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z.
THIS MAINLY COMES IN THE FORM OF LOWERED CEILINGS IN THE IFR TO
MVFR RANGE, AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE. FOR MORE
INFORMATION REGARDING FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL, READ THE
DISCUSSION ABOVE. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS OVER
THE REGION THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE
POSSIBILITY OF SCATTERING OF CLOUDS AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEFORE 03Z, TURNING MORE
NORTHERLY AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT SNOW IS
FORECAST AS WELL BETWEEN 06Z-15Z, WITH MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS
BEING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BETWEEN 1-3SM, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
REDUCTIONS DOWN TO HALF A MILE POSSIBLE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ008.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ
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