203
FXUS63 KFGF 190014
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
614 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW
AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS AND
POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FOR THOSE STRANDED.
- ARCTIC AIR LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BRING COLD WEATHER IMPACTS TO
THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 614 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
LET A LARGE CHUNK OF THE CURRENT HEADLINES GO AT 6PM AS WEBCAMS
AND AREA OBS SUPPORT WIDESPREAD MILE OR GREATER VISIBILITY WITH
THINGS TRENDING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION FOR THE THAT BECOME THE
NORM IN THE AREAS OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. AS FOR THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LINGERING
HCRS COMBINED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30MPH AND GUSTS
NEARING 50 MPH STILL ARE LEADING TO MAYBE NOT AS WIDESPREAD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS THEY WERE 6 HOURS AGO BUT STILL POOR
ENOUGH TO KEEP THOSE HEADLINES IN PLACE. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED
THE WARNING TO MIDNIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR UNCERTAINTY IN WHEN HCRS
MIGHT END BUT EXPECT IT TO GO NO LATER THAN THAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
..SYNOPSIS
ONGOING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE THE STORY OF THE DAY, AS A COLD
FRONT SWUNG SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTING SOUTH, WHICH IN ADDITION TO
BRINGING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, IS ALSO BRINGING WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS -40. THEREFORE, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH NOON MONDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS WORK WEEK, NORTHWEST
FLOW REMAINS STUCK IN PLACE. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DEPENDENT UPON WHERE THE JET WAVERS, WITH EARLY PORTIONS OF THE
WEEK LOOKING COLD (HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO) AS THE
JET WAVERS SOUTH, AND MIDWEEK BEING A BIT WARMER (HIGHS IN THE
DOUBLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO) AS IT COMES BACK TO THE NORTH. WARMER
WEATHER WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, AS A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR
DIVES SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WELL BELOW ZERO FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WHILE A FEW WEAK SYSTEMS
PASS THROUGH, NO MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER TODAYS
BLIZZARD.
..TODAYS BLIZZARD
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE BEING REPORTED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN ND INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. PLACES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SUCH AS
LANGDON AND PEMBINA HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING WHITEOUT CONDITIONS SINCE
SUNRISE. REPORTS RECEIVED HERE AT THE OFFICE TELL A STORY OF
VISIBILITY AS LOW AS A HANDFUL OF FEET IN SPOTS, RANGING ACROSS THE
FA FROM LANGDON, GRAND FORKS, ELBOW LAKE AND LANCASTER. AREAS
WHERE THE MOST CONSISTENT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE OCCURING ARE
WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW ZERO. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT
THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING (BENSON
DOWN THROUGH SARGENT) ARE SEEING CONDITIONS IMPROVE, AS FALLING
SNOW HAS MOSTLY ENDED. HOWEVER, AREAS IN TOWNER/CAVALIER
COUNTIES, WHERE CONSISTENT FALLING SNOW HAS ALSO ENDED AND THE
SUN IS EVEN PEEKING OUT, ARE STILL REPORTING WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO PLUMES OF BLOWING SNOW AND A
LITTLE FALLING SNOW FROM HCRS AS SEEN ON SATELLITE, ASSISTING IN
DRIVING DOWN VISIBILITIES IN WHAT HAS BECOME A TRUE BLUE SKY
GROUND BLIZZARD IN THE NORTH. THEREFORE, IT WAS DECIDED TO LEAVE
HEADLINES AS THEY ARE FOR NOW SINCE CONDITIONS ARE STILL NOT
GREAT EVEN WHERE THEY ARE "BETTER" THEN BEFORE, BUT WESTERN
ZONES WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE TRIMMED THIS EVENING A BIT
EARLY. AS WE GO THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
THIS EVENT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO A CLASSIC RED RIVER
VALLEY GROUND BLIZZARD, WHERE CONDITIONS IMPROVE OUTSIDE THE
VALLEY BUT REMAIN POOR LONGER FOR LOCATIONS WITHIN THE VALLEY.
EVEN WHEN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS END, WINDS AT 925MB LINGER THROUGH
THE NIGHT, MEANING BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE PAST THE
EXPIRATION TIME OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH IMPROVED BY MORNING, BUT
IN THIS SYSTEMS WAKE TEMPERATURES WILL TANK INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO, WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -40F.
..LATE WEEK COLD
A CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR DIVES SOUTH LATE WEEK, BRINGING COLD
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS WELL BELOW ZERO BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
POTENTIALLY LASTING INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND
CHILLS OF -40F OR LOWER ARE ALREADY GREATER THEN 60% OVER MUCH
OF THE FA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 PM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
FOR FARGO AND GRAND FORKS EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO BE IN
AND OUT OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH IFR TO MVFR BECOMING VFR BY
MIDNIGHT. FOR ALL OTHER SITES ANY REMAINING MVFR WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR BY MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTS DROPPING QUICKLY IN THE NEXT 6
HOURS LIKELY AROUND 03Z. TOMORROW SOME LOW CLOUDS MIGHT BRING US
BACK TO MVFR IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON BUT OTHER THAN THAT
MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS THAN THE LAST 3 DAYS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR NDZ008-016-027-
030-039-053.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ001>004-007-
022-027-029-030-040.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...TT
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