897
FXUS63 KFGF 261727
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1127 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 MPH AND HIGHER FRIDAY MAY BRING
LOCALIZED BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IMPACTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 646 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
MOST OF THE MID CLOUDS ARE EXITING THE AREA, REMAINING THICKER
AREA IS IN NW MN MOVING QUICKLY EAST. UPSTREAM IS SOME SCATTERED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR TEMPS AS NOT A GREAT
PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR A WEST WIND WHICH IS NEEDED INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY FLOOR TO WARM UP....LAST TO WARM UP TODAY WILL BE
EASTERN RRV CROOKSTON TO HALLOCK AND THIS AREA MAY NOT REACH 32.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO ANY MESSAGING BUT HAVE BEEN KEEPING UP WITH
THE ONGOING LIGHT SNOW IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND
AND BEEN ADJUSTING THE GRIDS AS NEEDED TO BETTER ALIGN WITH THE
CURRENT COVERAGE. STILL FORECASTING ALONG THE LINES OF WHAT WAS
MENTIONED EARLIER WITH A TRACE TO HALF INCH FOR MOST FROM
HALLOCK TO BEMIDJI AND NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE FA. ONE WEAK WAVE EMBEDDED
IN THIS FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL, A
FEW TENTHS. A WARM FRONT TONIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING. ON
FRIDAY, A STRONGER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE BEST FORCING WELL TO OUR NORTH, NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE
FRONT WINDS WILL PICK UP, WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES THAT FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST, AS
THE SURFACE HIGH TRACKS THROUGH THE FA. PROBABILITIES FOR WIND
CHILLS COLDER THEN -30 ARE NEAR ZERO AREA WIDE, EXCEPT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MN WHERE THEY RANGE FROM 20 TO 50 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MORE ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS.
..FRIDAY WINDS
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CAA ADVECTION APPEARS STRONGEST IN THE NORTH, CLOSER TO THE LOW
TRACKING THROUGH CANADA. WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, IT WOULD
SEEM REASONABLE TO EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR GREATER. HOW MUCH
HIGHER IS UNCERTAIN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A WIDE SPREAD IN THE
DEGREE OF MIXING, WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF WE TAP INTO "LOWER END"
SCENARIO WINDS (40 TO 45 MPH GUSTS) OR "HIGHER END" SCENARIO WINDS
(50+ MPH GUSTS).
REGARDLESS OF WINDS, THE STATE OF THE SNOWPACK BY FRIDAY
MORNING APPEARS FAIRLY PALTRY. FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING
ICED OVER SNOWPACK IN THE SOUTH. SOUTHERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS HAVE DRIFTED, SWEPT, AND SETTLED SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
NORTH. ADD IN A 24 TO 30 HOUR PERIOD FROM AROUND NOON ON
THURSDAY TO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON OF TEMPERATURES HOVERING
NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING, THE CURRENT SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY BE IN
ROUGH SHAPE TO BLOW AROUND. THIS LEAVES US RELIANT ON NEW
SNOWFALL TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS. WHILE THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME FALLING SNOW AROUND THE TIME OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, IT DOES NOT LOOK TO LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS.
THEREFORE, FRIDAYS FORECAST TREND HAS BEEN MORE TOWARDS A WIND
EVENT, WITH LESS LIKELIHOOD OF BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. NO AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT, AVIATION IMPACTS WILL INCREASE AS
LLWS EFFECTS ALL TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST. THEREAFTER, ON
FRIDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH. THIS WILL
BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGHEST WINDS SHOULD
OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT SUSTAINED WINDS OF
OVER 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KNOTS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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