755
FXUS63 KFGF 250417
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1117 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
CHANCE FOR SOAKING RAIN OF 1 INCH OR MORE IS GREATER THAN 60
PERCENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEAR THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
BORDER, WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. SOME
ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRATOCU OVER THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND BOOST WINDS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WINDS
WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE
STARTING TO KICK OUT INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
MONDAY, WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA.
ANOTHER LOBE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COMES THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT MOST
OF THE VORTICITY AND MOISTURE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE TRACKING TO
OUR SOUTH AT THIS POINT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
..NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING
OBS SHOW MANY LOCATIONS DOWN TO AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT HUMIDITY
IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. FURTHER NORTH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWER AND RH VALUES HAVE STAYED IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS IN THE AREA OF DRIEST RH VALUES HAVE
BEEN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE MOST
PART, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NEAR THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SEEM CONCENTRATED MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY
200 CORRIDOR, AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET AS
TEMPERATURES START TO DROP AND WINDS DIMINISH. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A BIT HIGHER DEW POINTS. BEST CHANCES OF GETTING BELOW 25
PERCENT ARE NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS AND FUELS ARE STILL DRY, SO
WILL MONITOR IN CASE ANOTHER SPS IS NEEDED TOMORROW FOR NEAR
CRITICAL.
..RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
LEAD SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH TOMORROW MAY BRING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, BUT THERE WILL
BE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL IN
THE ECMWF EFI FOR WET CONDITIONS BY 00Z TUESDAY, AND EVEN SHIFT
OF TAILS SHOWS A BIT OF SNOW NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR OUR
FAR NORTHWEST. PROBABILITY OF ANY WINTER IMPACTS LOOK LOW AT
THIS POINT, SO WILL FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES. NBM HAS PROBABILITIES
OF OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THAT PERIOD OF OVER 60 PERCENT,
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE
RAIN SEEM AT THIS POINT TO BE MAINLY BRINGING DOWN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD WITH
WINDS FOLLOWING A DIURNAL TREND. FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD,
EXPECT GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS
DEPENDING ON LOCATION AND TERRAIN. AS WE PROGRESS TO SUNRISE,
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY ALTHOUGH REMAIN GENERALLY
LIMITED IN AVIATION IMPACTS. SUSTAINED WINDS TOMORROW WILL
GENERALLY BE 5-10 KNOTS IN TREE FILLED AREAS AND 10-15 KNOTS IN
MORE OPEN LANDS. GUSTS IN OPEN LANDS MAY APPROACH 20-25 KNOTS,
BUT SHOULDN'T GET MUCH HIGHER THAN THAT. THESE WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED MAINLY THE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST YOU
GO, BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. SHOWERS MAY IMPACT FAR AND BJI AFTER
00Z TOMORROW, BUT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW (20%).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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