229
FXUS63 KFGF 132323
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
623 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WATER VAPOR INDICATES SEVERAL UPPER WAVES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WESTERN CONUS COAST. ONE SUCH UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE ROCKIES
AND PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, ROUNDING THE UPPER RIDGE
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE WITH
ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN TO EVOLVE
GIVEN GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS/SYSTEMS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MID-LATE WEEK SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY DRY AFTER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
.SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY-SATURDAY
THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR REGION, BUT
STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN THE 'WARM SECTOR'
OF THE SYSTEM. THAT SAID, MOST LIKELY SCENARIO INDICATES UPRIGHT
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK TO NON-EXISTINT WHICH WOULD LIMIT
STORM STRENGTH/INTENSITY. OTHER SCENARIOS/ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO
BRING GREATER INSTABILITY TO THE REGION, BUT NOT MANY OF THESE
SCENARIOS EXISTS, AND THE ONES THAT DO ARE NOT THAT MUCH MORE
UNSTABLE THAN THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
..SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH CANADA GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MULTIPLE SCENARIOS EXIST REGARDING HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE, INCLUDING
STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DECIDE ON
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY - SEVERE POTENTIAL. ML/AI GUIDANCE
INDICATE A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY-TUESDAY, INDICATING
THE LOWER PREDICTABILITY THAT STILL EXISTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.
NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS AT THE ND
AIRPORTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...JR
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