592
FXUS63 KFGF 220514
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1114 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS OF 40 BELOW TO 60 BELOW ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THIS EVENING WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
GENERALLY 1-4 MILE VISIBILITIES, SO TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LIMITED.
THE COLD FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
WILL BE SLIDING DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BRINGING THE
BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH
FLURRIES AND LIGHTER SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER BENEATH
PERSISTENT AREAS OF STRATUS. THE TIMING FOR FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR
SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED TO COME IN BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER
3 AM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT, WITH THE
NEXT REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE
COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON DOWN INTO THE AREA.
BY TOMORROW NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OF OVER 1050MB IS
FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH VERY COLD AIR
MASS IN PLACE BUT LIGHTER WINDS. ANOTHER LOBE OF THE UPPER LOW
DIGS DOWN FOR SATURDAY, TURNING FLOW NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY AS IT
COMES DOWN INTO ONTARIO AND MN. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
ANOTHER REINFORCING SHORTWAVE. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE BUT START TO MODERATE A
BIT.
..SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW
WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
THE RED RIVER VALLEY, ALONG WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES, SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW HAVE BEEN IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA A
BIT STRONGER THAN EARLIER. THINK THAT THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES GO DOWN, AND
THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHTLY DECREASING WINDS AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC
FRONT LATER TONIGHT. EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY A BIT
LONGER INTO THE EVENING, BUT DO THINK THERE WILL BE SOME
IMPROVEMENT LATER TONIGHT. THE ARCTIC FRONT COMES DOWN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS OVER
30 MPH ARE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY AND PROBABILITIES OF OVER 40 MPH
GUSTS ARE AROUND 10 PERCENT. MAY BE MORE DRIFTING SNOW THAN SNOW
BEING LOFTED AND IMPACTING VISIBILITY, AND WHILE THERE WILL BE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, NOT AS MANY AS TODAY. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON HOW IT
DEVELOPS.
..EXTREME COLD THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT AND 1050MB HIGH COMING DOWN, EXTREMELY
COLD AIR WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION. PROBABILITIES OF
APPARENT TEMPERATURES AT -40 OR LOWER ARE NEAR 100 PERCENT BY
THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW. THE ECMWF EFI SHOWS A VERY STRONG
COLD SIGNAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND. KEPT THE
ONGOING WARNING/ADVISORY HEADLINES LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING FOR A TRANSITION PERIOD, THEN HAVE ALL COUNTIES IN THE
EXTREME COLD BY THE END OF THE DAY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
SOME QUESTION OF HOW WINDS WILL BEHAVE LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THUS, JUST WENT EXTREME COLD WARNING THROUGH
MID- DAY ON FRIDAY AND KEPT THE WATCH GOING AFTER THAT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
INTERMITTENT MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF
PERIOD BUT WITH HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUD COVERAGE. CLOUD BASES
SHOULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM 600 TO 5000 FT BUT THE MAIN QUESTION
IS IF THESE WILL BECOME CEILINGS. IN ANY CASE, THIS SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH INTERMITTENT
LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE, CAUSING VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AT
TIMES. AGAIN, THIS ALSO DEPENDS ON HOW WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS
FOR IT TO BE EITHER TEMPORARY OR PREVAILING. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, BUT CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR TOMORROW
EVENING AS A SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
NDZ038-039.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ038-039-049-052-053.
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022-023.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST THURSDAY FOR
MNZ003-024-027-028.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
MNZ003-024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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