490
FXUS63 KFGF 222341
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVERSPREADS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- THE SEASON'S FIRST SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEXT
WEEK STARTING MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGHING IS INFLUENCE OUR REGION'S WEATHER TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THIS IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT, ALONG WITH LINGERING DRIZZLE BEHIND THE
RAINFALL INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY WITHIN MINNESOTA). GENERAL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND HALF AN INCH, WITH SOME SEEING AROUND 1 INCH (40%
CHANCE IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA). AREAS LIKE
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS,
LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING STEADY RAINFALL EXITS OUR
REGION, STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL INTRODUCE THE YEAR'S FIRST STINT OF
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES START MEMORIAL DAY THIS MONDAY.
GUSTY WINDS, DRY AIR, AND HOT TEMPERATURES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
GUSTY WINDS WILL GET, AS WELL AS SUSCEPTIBILITY OF FUELS TO
RAPID FIRE SPREAD GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND GREEN-UP OF
VEGETATION.
WITH THE BUILDING HEAT, INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE INCREASED
WITHIN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, THERE IS DEFT IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL AS LACK OF MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT TO
KEEP POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
FORM, THEY MAY BE STRONG TO PERHAPS LOW END SEVERE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARDS IN ADDITION TO
LIGHTNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP, BUT COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS MONDAY WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS OVERSPREADING THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL DRIVE VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR/IFR RANGE THROUGHOUT
THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. CEILINGS SO FAR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO BUDGE DOWNWARD, BUT A GENERAL
LOWERING FROM VFR TO MVFR TO IFR IS FORECASTED OVER THE NEXT 6
HOURS OR SO. AS RAIN ENDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT,
DRIZZLE AND EVEN A FEW PATCHES OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. THIS
WILL BRING CONTINUED MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. LIFR
IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, BUT PREDICTABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IT IN AT ANY TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. ANY INSTANCES OF LIFR
SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AND TRANSIENT, BUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS FOR ANY
NEED TO INCLUDE INTO THE TAF, MOSTLY LIKELY AS A TEMPO.
EVENTUALLY, AS WE GO THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH CEILINGS RISING IN
TANDEM. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM THE EAST AS WE HAVE TODAY TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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