828  
FXUS63 KFGF 021437  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
937 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW FORECAST TO AFFECT EXTREME SOUTHEAST  
NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA MID  
MORNING THRU MID AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE HEAVY  
ENOUGH TO BRING WINTRY IMPACTS.  
 
- TEMPERATURES AND SNOWFALL RATES VERY CRITICAL IN TERMS OF  
IMPACTS AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 936 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025  
 
WEAK FRONTOGENESIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES IN  
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND IS MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST  
NORTH DAKOTA. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW HEAVY THE RATE IS, BUT  
VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN TO 1/4-1/2SM AT TIMES. SOUTHEAST NORTH  
DAKOTA WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCAL POINT OF IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT  
1-2 HOURS, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS  
THE LOW PIVOTS NORTHWARD.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025  
 
LOOKING AT SATELLITE LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A SPIN IN THE RADAR  
IMAGERY IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. 10Z HRRR SHOWS A 500 MB LOW IN  
THAT AREA BUT WITH 700 MB LOW STILL QUITE WEAK. 10Z HRRR SHOWS  
BOTH 500/700 MB SYSTEMS STRENGTHEN A BIT DURING THE DAY AND MOVE  
NORTHEAST. WILL NEED TO SEE 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS INCREASE  
NORTHWES OF THIS LOW FOR ANY SUSTAINED HEAVIER SNOW BAND TO SET  
UP. THERE IS HEAVIER SNOW IN BANDS IN SOUTH DAKOTA REDFIELD TO  
ABERDEEN AREA AND WEST. SO FOR THE TIME BEING NOT A LOT OF SNOW  
TO ROTATE INTO THE RRV AND WILL NOT UNTIL THE LOWS ARE A BIT  
MORE EAST. 10Z HRRR IS LESS INTENSE WITH SNOW BAND IN TERMS OF  
HOURLY SNOW RATES WITH ANY 1 INCH/HR RATES SOUTH OF OUR AREA. SO  
WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
THE OVERNIGHT SNOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN QUITE LIGHT  
AND WATER VAPOR SHOWS NO UPPER WAVES IN THE AREA TO GIVE FORCING  
FOR HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. SO IT LOOKS ANY HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL  
NEED TO WAIT UNTIL THE 500 MB AND 700 MB LOW TRACK INTO  
NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BY 15Z. IT DOES LOOK  
LIKE ANY CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO DRIFT MORE NORTH INTO  
COOPERSTOWN, GRAND FORKS TO ROSEAU REGION IS DIMINISHING. WILL  
MAINTAIN ADVISORY, BUT IF TEMPS TODAY DO RISE BACK AND HOLD  
33/34 DEGREES THEN UNLESS IT SNOWS HARD ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE  
LOWER.  
 
BEYOND THIS SYSTEM....THERE IS A FAST MOVING UPPER WAVE  
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THRU FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS ARE  
SUCH LOOKS LIKE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND AS PASSING THRU DURING THE  
DAY NO IMPACTS ANTICPATED. WARM UP SLOWLY GETS GOING NEXT WEEK.  
 
   
..WINTER STORM IMPACTS
 
 
FROM 15Z-21Z THE TRACK OF 500/700 MB LOWS WILL TAKE IT INTO  
CENTRAL MN NEAR ST CLOUD/BRAINERD. SHORT TERMM CONVECTIVE  
ALLOWING MODELS INDICATE A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL DEVELOP  
15/16Z PERIOD IN FAR SE ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN WITHIN THE ZONE  
FROM SISSESTON/WAHPETON TO BRAINERD REGION. THIS SNOW BAND LOOKS  
TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND PIVOT FOR A TIME OVER WEST CENTRAL MN IN  
THE WAHPETON-FERGUS FALLS-PARK RAPIDS ZONE TODAY AND THIS IS  
WHEN SNOWFALL RATES WILL BRING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND SURFACE  
TEMPS DROP TO 31/32. ROAD TEMPS NORMALLY INCREASE DURING THE  
DAY, SO THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME RELIEF IN TERMS OF ROAD  
ACCUMULATIONS. BUT WOULD EXPECT HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS BASED  
ON TYPE OF ROAD, SNOWFALL RATES, ETC. BOTTOM LINE MID MORNING  
THRU MID AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO SEE WINTRY IMPACTS. IN THIS  
BAND 3-7 OR 4-8 INCHES LOOK REASONABLE FOR SNOWFALL. SO WARNING  
WILL REMAIN AS IS. NOW IF THINGS DO NOT MATERIALIZE THEN CHANGES  
WILL BE NEEDED. TOOK OUT BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS TODAY NOT STRONG  
ENOUGH TO CAUSE ISSUES. ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL BE DUE TO  
FALLING SNOW.  
 
FARTHER NORTH/WEST FROM COOPERSTOWN THRU GRAND FORKS TO ROSEAU  
THE CHANCE OF HEAVIER SNOW REACHING HERE TODAY IS A LOT LOWER.  
MESSAGING 1-4 INCHES TODAY IN THIS AREA. FARTHER NORTH DEVILS  
LAKE-HALLOCK UNDER AN INCH.  
 
THE SYSTEM IS A BIT SLOWER AND SNOW WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER  
NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO THE EVENING AND MAY NOT FULLY END TIL LATE  
TONIGHT. KEPT ENDING TIMES AS IS OF 7 PM / 00Z THU BUT IN SOME  
AREAS IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT WED APR 2 2025  
 
IFR TO AREAS OF MVFR TODAY IN REGARDS TO VSBY/CEILINGS. VARYING  
VSBY IN LIGHT SNOW TODAY MOSTLY 2SM TO 6SM BUT AT TIMES LOWER  
AND TIMES P6SM. THINKING BETTER CHANCE FOR LOWER VSBYS  
EVENTUALLY INTO BEMIDJI MID AFTERNOON. LOWER LEVEL CLOUD DECK  
AROUND 800 FT AGL BUT THERE AREA AREAS WITH THAT SCATTERED OUT  
AND CEILING 2500 TO 3000 FT AGL. SO A VARIABLE DAY FROM IFR TO  
MVFR. WINDS EAST 10-20 KTS THIS MORNING TURNING MORE NORTH-  
NORTHEAST 12-25KTS THIS LATE AFTN/EVE.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ016-  
024-026>030-054.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ038-  
039-049-052-053.  
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-  
002-005-007-008-013>015.  
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-  
006-009-016-017-022>024-027>032-040.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...PERROUX/RIDDLE  
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE  
AVIATION...RIDDLE  
 
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