755
FXUS63 KFGF 101413
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
913 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVER PARTS OF THE REGION AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE NEXT WEEK.
- FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THE FREEZE WARNING AND FROST ADVISORIES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED, WITH TEMPERATURES HAVING IMPROVED TO THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S AND CONTINUING TO INCREASE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST
AIR ALOFT MOVES EAST THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT MUCH LESS CLOUD COVER
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL STILL SUPPORT 32-36F TEMPS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY (WIDESPREAD FREEZE CONDITIONS
MORE LIKELY EAST). WHERE THE CUTOFF FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZE
CONDITIONS (WARNING) VERSUS ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL ULTIMATELY
BE DEPENDENT ON WIND SPEEDS AS FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
HOW MUCH RECOVERY OF THE AIR MASS OCCURS BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY.
THIS WILL BE ASSESSED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE LATEST DATA
COMES IN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPS/RH GRIDS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SATURDAY
SAW DEWPOINT TEMPS ABOUT 2-4 DEGREE HIGHER THAN HRRR HAD
YESTERDAY AND RH BARELY REACHED NEAR CRITICAL VALUES. TODAY LESS
WIND ALOFT TO MIX AND SUSPECT OVERALL A RATHER SIMILAR DAY TODAY
WITH LOWEST RH VALUES HOLDING 25 TO 30 PERCENT OR JUST ABOVE THE
NEED FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING OUT OF NE ND AND TEMPS ARE FALLING BLO FREEZING AS OF
08Z AND ALSO IN NW MN, SO FREEZING WARNING LOOKS FINE. HIGH
PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL BRING NEAR CALM WIND TO EASTERN FCST AREA
AND LIKELY FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS ESP EAST OF THE RED RIVER
THIS UPCOMING NIGHT. REST OF THE WEEK WILL SEE PERIODS WHERE RH
VALUES AND WINDS REACH A POINT WHERE NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..SYNOPSIS
LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A HUDSON BAY LOW AND A LONG FETCH
OF NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW FROM NORTHERN CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/OVER OUR CWA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE IN PLACE,
AND UNTIL THIS PATTERN BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
SUPPORT PERIODIC FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS THE NEXT SEVERAL
NIGHTS/MORNING. THE HUDSON BAY LOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY/PROGRESSIVE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH ENSEMBLE TRENDS TOWARDS A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE 7-10 DAY PERIOD (LATE NEXT
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK). FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, THIS
PATTERN SHIFT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING TEMPERATURES REGION-WIDE,
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO HELP
BRING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND
TOWARDS NEXT WEEK, WITH MUCH MORE SPREAD ON DETAILS AT THAT
POINT.
THERE IS A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE MONDAY EVENING-MONDAY NIGHT
THAT IS SHOWN TO PASS NORTH OF OUR REGION, AND THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AREAS OF SHOWERS THAT PASS THROUGH. CHANCES ARE
HIGH FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION (0.1-0.2") IN OUR FAR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST, BUT CHANCES ARE LOW FOR GREATER THAN 0.25" IN THE
SAME AREAS (20% OR LESS). TIMING FOR THIS IS MAINLY AFTER SUNSET
MONDAY, BUT IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVED BEFORE LOW LEVELS
DECOUPLE/WE LOOSE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THERE COULD BE
A FEW STRONGER GUSTS (50MPH+). DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING MODELS SHOW HIGH MIXED LAYERS IN INTERVED-V PROFILES,
WITH DCAPE 700-1100 J/KG. THIS THREAT IS MUCH LESS LIKELY BASED
ON THE CURRENT TIMING, AND IS JUST SOMETHING TO MONITOR IF THE
SYSTEM SPEEDS UP.
..FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
DEEP MIXING AHEAD OF THE INCREASING MID LEVEL CU HAS SUPPORTED
FREQUENT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION 25-35 MPH, HOWEVER AS CLOUDS ARE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES HAVE LEVELED OFF KEEPING RH VALUES
GENERALLY ABOVE 25%. TDS ARE IN THE 25-28F RANGE, SO WHERE
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 60F RH VALUES MAY STILL DROP TO 25% OR
LOWER. IN THE END, THE CHANCE FOR RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS IS
LOW, BUT NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET.
ALMOST EVERY DAY OF THE WEEK SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK MAY
FEATURE THE POTENTIAL FOR RH VALUES TO FALL UNDER 30% OVER PARTS
OF THE REGION, WITH SURFACE PATTERN AND EXACT MIXING HEIGHTS
ULTIMATELY DETERMINING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL WINDS/RH
EACH AFTERNOON. SOME DAYS MAY FEATURE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RH
VALUES NEAR 25%, BUT WINDS MAY NOT LINE UP TO SUPPORT RFW
CONDITIONS. EVENTUALLY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING
INCREASING TDS THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER IN THE LATER PERIODS
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER RH VALUES DESPITE TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE 80S OVER MANY AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND. DURING THE
PATTERN TRANSITION, ONE DAY THAT MY CARRY A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RH/WIND OVERLAP AND RFW CONDITIONS WOULD BE THURSDAY. THERE IS
A GOOD SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST HIGHER WINDS (EVEN POTENTIAL WIND
ADVISORY GUSTS 45MPH+). DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW DOES TEND TO
SUPPORT DEEP MIXING AS SHOWN BY A CONSENSUS OF ENSEMBLES, SO IF
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ISN'T AS STRONG WE MAY SEE A WINDOW FOR
BOTH LOW RH AND WINDY CONDITIONS. CERTAINLY A DAY TO MONITOR,
WITH THE STANDARD UNCERTAINTY THAT COMES WITH A FORECAST
REGARDING RH/WIND BEYOND DAY 4 IN THIS TYPE OF PATTERN.
..FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ISSUED FOR LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. FREEZE HEADLINES ISSUED WHERE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES FOR
32F OR LESS TEMPERATURES WERE 80% OR GREATER AND FROST ADVISORIES
WERE 32-36F RANGE IS MORE LIKELY. URBAN HEAT ISLAND MAY RESULT IN
MARGINAL (32-34F) CONDITIONS IN THE IMMEDIATE GRAND FORKS METRO,
HOWEVER WHERE THIS INFLUENCE IS LESS, TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO
DROP BELOW 32F DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY IN GRAND
FORKS AND WESTERN POLK COUNTIES.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH WINDS DROP OFF (MAY HOLD
AROUND 10KT) IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY (PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTH)
DUE TO THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS.
THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR LINGERING POCKETS OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS, AND THE EXACT LOCATIONS/COVERAGE/TIMING IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN ARE OFTEN NOT WELL RESOLVED. CURRENT CONSENSUS FAVORS
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THESE CLOUDS, WITH MORE
LIKELY CLEARING IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THESE FACTORS COULD
COMPLICATE WHERE WIDESPREAD FREEZE CONDITIONS (32F OR LESS)
OCCUR, AND THIS FACTORED INTO THE DECISION ON WHERE HEADLINES
WERE DRAWN UP. EVEN WITH CLOUDS AND WINDS AROUND 10KT, LOW
TEMPERATURES WOULD BE 36F OR LOWER CONSIDERING THE COLD NATURE
OF THE AIR MASS IN PLACE TONIGHT. WHERE CLEARING/LIGHTER WINDS
OCCUR WITHIN THE FROST ADVISORY, IMPACTS TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION
WOULD STILL BE ANTICIPATED.
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AM FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL: THE PATTERN SHIFT
(BUILDING LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST) WILL RESULT IN
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WEST TO EAST AND SHIFTING LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL STILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
OUR EASTERN CWA AND THIS IS THE TYPE OF SET UP WHERE STRONGER
GRADIENT REMAINS WEST ALLOWING LIGHTER WINDS TO REMAIN IN PLACE
WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A MUCH BETTER SIGNAL FOR CLEAR
SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AS WELL, SO WITH BETTER RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS,
IT APPEARS LIKELY (GREATER THAN 60% PROBABILITY) THAT FREEZE
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST MN WITH A CHANCE FOR
FROST/FREEZE WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES FOR SUB 36F
TEMPERATURES ARE MUCH LOWER DUE TO THIS PATTERN SHIFT WEST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY IN ND MONDAY MORNING. WE WILL ULTIMATELY NEED TO
CONSIDER ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. SKIES CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
TODAY, WITH CLOUD BASES 5000-8000 FT AGL. NORTHWEST WIND 8-15
KTS THEN NEAR CALM THIS EVENING BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT 5-10 KTS IN EASTERN ND/RRV.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE/DJR
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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