786
FXUS63 KFGF 041146
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
546 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS FROM A WINTRY MIX
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTER IMPACTS OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION. PREDICTABILITY IN IMPACTS REMAINS VERY LOW BEYOND
FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
DENSE FOG HAS EXPANDED EAST INTO WADENA, PARK RAPIDS, BEMIDJI
AND INTO WESTERN ROSEAU COUNTY BETWEEN 5 AND 530 AM. SO EXPANDED
ADVISORY INTO THESE AREAS. WILL NEED TO EXAMINE WHICH AREAS
WHERE THE ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
FOG IS THE MAIN ISSUE THIS MORNING, THEN TEMPERATURES. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS NOTED IN FAR NORTHEAST MONTANA AND SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN AT 11Z AND THIS WILL MOVE ESE AND TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTH OVER NORTHEAST ND THIS AFTERNOON, WITH WIND SHIFT REACHING
THE SOUTHERN RRV LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARMER AIR MOVING
INTO SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN TODAY AND WILL EVENTUALLY
KICK THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT BUT TIMING OF THAT OTHER THAN
SOMETIME THIS MORNING IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN
WILL BE FOG AND ANY IMPROVEMENT IN NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NW MN.
HRRR KEEPS FOG AROUND INTO THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
BAROCLINIC TEMPERATURE BOUNDARY OF SNOW VS NO SNOWCOVER WHICH
LIKES ROUGHLY COOPERSTOWN TO HILLSBORO TO ADA. MUCH WARMER TMEPS
SOUTH OF THIS LINE AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS NORTH. 50S SOUTH AND
20S NORTH. IN BETWEEN COULD EASILY VARY BY 15 DEGREES IN 15
MILES. WILL ADJUST OR EXTEND DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS NEEDED THIS
MORNING, AS SOME AREAS WILL NEED TO SEE EXTENSION OF DENSE FOG
ADV PAST 14Z.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING, WITH VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
THE RED RIVER. DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH JUST
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 731 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS FORMING ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA, WITH
SEVERAL LOCATIONS REPORTING 1/4 MILE TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY. DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NEAR ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
NEARLY CALM WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AS WE
APPROACH SUNRISE. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO
EAST STARTING JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
ZONAL FLOW TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURE RANGES
LARGE FROM LOCATION TO LOCATION. A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT REINFORCED
THE IDEA THAT WE TRULY ARE TEETERING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE,
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE 40S IN THE FAR SOUTH TO NOT
EVEN THE TEENS IN THE FAR NORTH. AS WE GO THROUGH TONIGHT,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR BACK TO THE NORTH. THIS
SETS THE STAGE FOR MORE FOG TO DEVELOP. AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS
OVER THE WESTERN US AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, A SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THE BULK OF THE FORCING
TO OUR NORTH, PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIMITED. PREDICTABILITY
DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND AS MODEL
GUIDANCE DIVERGES, WITH OUR AREA REMAINING UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF SOUTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL FLOW.
..FOG MIDWEEK
FOG BECAME A PROBLEM LAST NIGHT AS COOLER AIR FILTERED SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA OVER A FAIRLY WARM SNOWPACK. TONIGHT, WINDS FLIP AROUND, OUT
OF THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ADVECT WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO THE
FA. THIS SHOULD AID IN FOG FORMATION AGAIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MORE FOG IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS COOLER
AIR WORKS SOUTHWARD, LEADING TO A SIMILAR SITUATION AS WE SAW
LAST NIGHT. AS ONE WOULD EXPECT WITH ALL THE CONTINUAL
EXCHANGING OF AIRMASSES, A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN SET UP OVER THE FA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
APPROACH 60 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH, WHILE REMAINING STUCK IN THE
20S ACROSS THE NORTH. JUST AS WE ARE SEEING THIS AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES MAY VARY BY 10 DEGREES OR MORE IN LOCATIONS ONLY 10
OR 20 MILES APART. THIS MAKES THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
DIFFICULT FOR AREAS NORTH OF I94 TO ABOUT HIGHWAY 2, WITH THE
NBM SHOWING UP TO 20 DEGREE SPREADS BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILES.
..WINTRY MIX THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TRACKING MORE TO OUR NORTH, UNCERTAINTY REVOLVES
AROUND HOW MUCH FORCING WE ACTUALLY SEE TO DRIVE PRECIPITATION. WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES ALSO IN PLACE, A WINTRY MIX IS FAVORED OVER A
STRAIGHT SNOW EVENT. THE PROBABILITY FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS
IS 20%, WITH THIS PROBABILITY BEING DRIVEN ENTIRELY BY ICE.
..UNCERTAINTY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
AS A STRONGER WAVE EJECTS ONTO THE PLAINS WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, UNCERTAINTY ONLY GROWS. FIRST,
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DISAGREE AROUND THE TIMING OF THE WAVE. A
LITTLE FASTER, AND IT MAY INTERACT/PHASE WITH THE FIRST WAVE
TRACKING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IF IT WAITS A LITTLE
LONGER, THESE TWO SYSTEMS MAY NOT INTERACT AT ALL. SECOND,
ENSEMBLES SHOW DISAGREEMENT IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN US. LESS RIDGING WOULD MEAN A LESS NORTH TRACK,
WHICH WOULD LOWER OVERALL IMPACTS FOR OUR FA. INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM IS ALSO UNKNOWN, WITH A LARGE PART OF THAT HINGING ON IF
THERE IS SOME SORT OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO WAVES.
OVERALL, THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION
AND INTENSITY OF WINTER IMPACTS.
BEYOND SATURDAY, ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER WAVE OR TWO AS THE
FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL/NORTHWESTERLY. AGAIN THOUGH - THERE ARE
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE LOCATION/TIMING OF EACH WAVE. THEREFORE,
WHILE A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER DOES LOOK TO BE IN STORE,
DETAILS REMAIN SLIM AS TO HOW CONDITIONS WILL EVOLVE AT ANY ONE
EXACT LOCATION. CHECK BACK IN THE COMING DAYS FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST WED MAR 4 2026
CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH IN THAT THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
CLEAR OUT OF FARGO, BUT TIMING TO THE HOUR IS EXTREMELY
UNCERTAIN. IT MAY GO FROM 1/4 TO 4 TO P6SM IN SHORT ORDER. TIMED
ESTIMATED FOR TAFS. BEMIDJI TOO IS ON THE EDGE OF THE FOG AND
MAY WELL GET THE FOG OUT TOO MID TO LATE MORNING. GFK, TVF, DVL
IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN AS WINDS WILL TURN NORTH AND COLDER TEMPS
WILL REMAIN. IT MAY TAKE WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON TO SEE MUCH
IMPROVEMENT THEN HOPEFULLY ENOUGH OF A NORTH WIND TO KEEP DENSE FOG
AT BAY TONIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-039-053-054.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>004-
007-008-013>016-022-023-027-029-030-040.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ005-009-
017-024-028-031-032.
UPDATE...LYNCH/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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