347
FXUS63 KFGF 191930
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
230 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING, THEN MAINLY
DRY UNTIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SPLIT FLOW WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER
ID/UT, AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKING DOWN OVER OUR REGION HAS BROUGHT A FEW WEAK
RAIN SHOWERS. EVEN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT,
PLENTY OF CLOUDS INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 40S INTO THE 50S. THE UPPER LOW WILL COME EASTWARD INTO SD
AND NEB TOMORROW, BRINGING CLOUDS BUT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION
REMAINS SOUTH OF OUR CWA. THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW PULLS FURTHER
SOUTHEAST OF US ON MONDAY, WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS
MID-WEEK. MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING A SHORTWAVE OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY, WITH
RIDGING TO WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AFTER THAT.
..LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMING DOWN HAVE
DISSIPATED, BUT MANY OF THE CAMS, INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP,
HAVE REDEVELOPMENT BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL, A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
UPPER LOW STILL OUT OVER THE ROCKIES STARTS TO COME EAST INTO
THE PLAINS, BUT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
IMPACTS REMAINING TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA. ONLY LOCATIONS RIGHT
NEAR THE SD BORDER HAVE ANY PROBABILITY OF 0.01 OF RAIN, AND
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AT THAT. SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART OF THE
WORK WEEK LOOK TO REMAIN DRY, BUT A SHORTWAVE COMING OUT LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DECENT PROBABILITIES OF AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST 0.01 OF
RAIN, BUT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN HALF AN INCH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THINK CEILINGS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO A MIX OF MVFR TO VFR THIS EVENING,
THEN EVENTUALLY ALL VFR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS POINT
THE THE PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN A MILE AT THE TAF
SITES ARE BELOW 20 PERCENT, SO WILL KEEP ANY RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY OUT FOR NOW BUT NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
WINDS THAT ARE NORTHEASTERLY WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND THEN
BACK TO NORTHEASTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT MOST
AIRPORTS WILL SEE LESS THAN 12 KTS IN SPEED.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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