319
FXUS63 KFGF 130055
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
655 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC AIR CONTINUES TO POUR INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR
TONIGHT, WIND CHILLS WILL FALL AS LOW AS 45 BELOW ZERO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 653 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
THE EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE GRAND
FORKS AND POLK COUNTIES DUE TO OBSERVATIONS HOVERING AROUND -40
IN BOTH COUNTIES. THE OVERLAP OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR TEMPERATURES
AND ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD ALLOW THIS TO CONTINUE AND
EXPAND OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS MAINLY. WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, WIND CHILLS MAY RISE ABOVE THE -40 THRESHOLD,
BUT FOR SIMPLICITY THE EXTREME COLD WARNING CONTINUES WITH IT
THROUGH 18Z. ALL COUNTIES GO TO A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THEREON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
..SYNOPSIS
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, ALLOWING
ARCTIC AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE WELL
BELOW AVERAGE, WITH SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO ON SUNDAY. THE WARMUP ON SUNDAY WILL
ARRIVE MUCH LATER IN THE DAY, HOWEVER, AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
INCREASES ALONG WEST WINDS. THIS WILL ALSO FACILITATE MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL JET
BRINGS DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, THEN ADVECTS
THE WARMER AIR MASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BY TUESDAY, GUIDANCE
IS BRINGING 850 MB TEMPS WELL INTO THE 5-10C RANGE. AT THIS TIME,
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH WELL INTO THE 30S;
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW THE WARMER
AIR MASS REACTS TO THE RELATIVELY FRESH SNOW PACK. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT WE SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND/OR FOG AS A RESULT, WHICH
WOULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT THE UPPER BOUNDS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES.
FOLLOWING THIS WARMUP, THERE IS MODERATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RELATIVELY STRONG UPPER LOW
AND CLIPPER, THUS BRINGING COLD AIR BACK INTO THE AREA HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION AND THE ASSOCIATED IMPACTS.
..DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS THROUGH SUNDAY
WIND CHILL VALUES HAVE ALREADY FALLEN WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS TO THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NORTH
DAKOTA, AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WIND CHILLS OF
40-45 BELOW ZERO ARE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED, AND ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 20S BELOW ZERO, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, WHERE TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE
EXPECTED. COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, BUT WITH LOWER WIND POTENTIAL. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE 20S
BELOW ZERO TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO, WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 40
BELOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE ONCE
MORE AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS. AS SUCH, VERY LIMITED IMPACTS TO AVIATION
CAN BE EXPECTED.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
015-016-026-027-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR NDZ006>008-015-016-026-027-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001-004-
005-007>009-013>017-022>024.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR MNZ001-004-005-007>009-013>017-022>024.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ002-003-006-
027>032-040.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...PERROUX
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