537
FXUS63 KFGF 192334
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER ANTICIPATED WITH THE
MAIN IMPACTS BEING LIGHTNING AND BRIEF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, BRINGING A SURFACE LOW WITH SOME WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AMPLIFIES A BIT
INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES/WESTERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
IT DOWN A BIT ON MONDAY, WITH SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS FOR MID-WEEK, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN WERE EXACTLY THE RIDGE AXIS
SETS UP. NBM MEAN HAS BEEN TRENDING ON THE DRY SIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MANY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SCATTERED SHOWER AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN DIGS DOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS SUCH AS
THE NAM AND THE RAP HAVE A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY WITH THE
SYSTEM. THE SURFACE BASED CAPE IS ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE, BUT SOME OF THE CAMS HAVE MU CAPE A BIT ABOVE 1000 J/KG.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS, BUT HREF PROBABILITIES
OF ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE MINIMAL, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS
EVENING ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING AS
HREF HAS 30 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITIES WITH THIS SHORTWAVE,
ALONG WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5,000FT AGL THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE ARE A HANDFUL OF RADAR RETURNS IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN, ALTHOUGH RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY LITTLE OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS REACHING THE GROUND. THEREFORE, KEPT ANY
MENTION OF -RA OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AS WE GO THROUGH
THE EVENING, SHOWERS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY
INTO NORTHWESTERN MN AT KTVF AND KBJI. PROB30S OR TEMPOS MAY BE
NEEDED FOR -RA AT THESE TERMINALS, BUT BASED ON THE
LACKLUSTERNESS OF ACTIVITY SO FAR, KEPT THESE OUT FOR NOW AND
CAN REASSESS FOR THE 06Z TAFS. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER IS
LOW AT ALL TAF SITES, ALBEIT CHANCES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT
KBJI AND KTVF. WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY
BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS OR
SO. AFTERNOON CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN VFR, HOWEVER A CEILING MAY
FORM, ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN TERMINALS, AROUND 5,000FT AGL.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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