405
FXUS63 KFGF 051123
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
623 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 SEVERE RISK TONIGHT IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL UP TO 1 INCH.
- LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 SEVERE RISK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A PRIMARY
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH SECONDARY RISK FOR STRONG WINDS
AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
- LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 SEVERE RISK TUESDAY FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94/HWY 10. THERE IS
ALSO A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE SAME AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 442 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
MINIMAL CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IN REGARDS TO TODAYS THREAT WITH
ACTIVITY MOSTLY LOOKING TO STAY WEST OF OUR AREA BUT CANT 100
PERCENT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED STORMS IN THE UPPER DEVILS LAKE
BASIN THIS EVENING. TOMORROW CONDITIONS STILL LOOK SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE
DOMINANT HAZARDS THROUGH GIVEN STORM MODE A TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TUESDAY OUTFLOW/MONDAY'S STALLING COLD
FRONT IN SOUTH DAKOTA MAY FAVOR INCREASING MOISTURE POOLING AND
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT LEADING TO A COMPLEX OF STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A PRIMARY WIND THREAT. THE
LOCATION/TRACK OF THIS COMPLEX WILL DEPEND ON SURFACE FEATURES
THAT WILL BE UNKNOWN UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL ALSO COME A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE ORDER OF 1" TO
LOCALLY EXCEEDING 3" BRINGING A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
THIS WILL LARGELY AVOID THE HEAVILY IMPACTED AREAS OF NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THAT HAVE BEEN PLAGUED BY THE ABUNDANT LATE JUNE
RAINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH A GOOD
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER CURRENTLY PROVIDING SOME
LIFT FOR STORMS DEVELOPING IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT DRAPED ACROSS THAT SAME AREA WILL
START TO WASH OUT TONIGHT AS LEE TROUGHING GETS GOING TO OUR
WEST. SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. A
SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN
CANADA WILL HELP PUSH A FRONT BACK SOUTH INTO ND BY MONDAY. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON TUESDAY, PUSHING
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WEST UP FOR MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH
SEVERAL OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
COMING THROUGH ON FRIDAY.
..THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
MOST OF THE DEVELOPMENT SO FAR HAS BEEN IN WEST CENTRAL MN AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE, AND WITH GOOD HEATING BOOSTING ML CAPE TO OVER
2000 J/KG, SEVERAL OF THE CELLS HAVE GAINED ENOUGH HEIGHT TO
PRODUCE SOME 1 INCH HAIL EVEN WITH NEGLIGIBLE SHEAR. ANY SEVERE
THREAT FROM A INDIVIDUAL CELL WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THEY COME
UP AND THEN RIGHT BACK DOWN. SOME LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING IS A
POSSIBILITY WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND PWAT VALUES OVER
1.5 INCHES. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST, THERE IS LESS INSTABILITY
AND DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS LESS IMPRESSIVE, AND SHEAR IS
NOT ANY BETTER. COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS,
MAYBE EVEN SOME PEA SIZED HAIL FROM ANY ISOLATED CELLS THAT
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE CAMS SHOW STORMS
REDEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AROUND 00Z, WITH
HREF SHOWING AROUND A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHTNING. NOT
A SLAM DUNK BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS FOR A WHILE. BY SUNSET, MOST OF OUR INSTABILITY WILL
BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL BE PUSHING
EAST. HREF PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER ARE ON A RAPID DOWNWARD
TREND AFTER 03Z, BUT MAY HAVE TO WATCH A FEW SPOTS AT FIREWORKS
TIME FOR ANY LINGERING CONVECTION.
..SEVERE CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY
THE SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SUNDAY
COULD BRING SOME STORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL ND THAT COULD CLIP OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. HREF UPDRAFT HELICITY PROBABILITIES
ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE WITH ONLY A FEW MEMBERS SHOWING ANY
PAINTBALLS IN TOWNER COUNTY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
CELLS. BETTER, BUT STILL MARGINAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH INTO OUR AREA.
ENSEMBLE MEAN CAPE ACCORDING TO THE NBM GETS OVER 2000 J/KG BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 35 TO 40 KTS.
STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY, BUT IF THE TRENDS THAT THE NBM SHOWS HOLD
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY BUSY CONVECTIVE DAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
QUIET WEATHER TODAY AS VFR SKIES PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES. SOME
ISOLATED GROUND FOG REMAINS AROUND TVF AND BJI THIS MORNING BUT
WILL QUICKLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE S TO SE THROUGH THE DAY AT
5-10KTS WITH WINDS INCREASING AFTER 00Z AHEAD OF COLD FRONT TO
AROUND 10KTS AND GUSTS NEARING 20KTS BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD. MINIMAL OTHER IMPACTS TO
OPERATIONS WILL BE EXPECTED.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...TT
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