460  
FXUS63 KFGF 241201  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
701 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
 
AREA OF RAIN INCREASED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND TAKING SHAPE OVER  
CENTRAL ND WITH RADAR LOOP INDICATING MAIN 500 MB SHORT WAVE AXIS  
FROM WILLISTON TO BISMARCK WITH RAIN AREA LIFTING NORTH FROM  
VALLEY CITY AND CARRINGTON TO BISMARCK AND MINOT NORTHWARD. SFC  
TEMPS IN PRECIPITATION AREA ARE 36 TO 39 SO RAIN. STILL MONITORING  
PRECIPITATION AS IT ENTERS DEVILS LAKE AS SOME SITES INDICATE  
TEMPS 34 BUT INDICATIONS ARE ANY SNOWFLAKES WILL NOT BE IMPACTFUL.  
TWEEKED POPS FOR HIGHER POPS THERE NEAR THE SD/MN/ND BORDER AS  
MODELS CONTINUE POOR HANDLING OF THAT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
 
500 MB TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST AND CENTERED FROM NORTH  
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA  
AT 07Z. MOISTURE, MOSTLY MID LEVEL, IS RUNNING INTO A VERY DRY  
AIRMASS OVER MANITOBA TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL ONTARIO 500 MB  
LOW. THEREFORE THE IDEA OF THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING PRECIPITATION  
WISE AND THEN EVENTUALLY DRYING UP THIS EVENING SEEMS REASONABLE.  
THIS EARLY MORNING SHOWS POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM REGINA  
SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHEAST THRU NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND  
AND INTO NE SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ACTIVITY IN NE SOUTH DAKOTA  
(ABERDEEN AREA) HAS BEEN HEAVIER THAN THE 00Z AND PRIOR MODELS  
INDICATED. WILL SEE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY EXPAND ESP BIS/MOT  
REGION TODAY WHERE NBM HAS HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MORE THAN 0.10 INCH  
OF RAIN. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NE EXTENT OF ANY MEASURABLE RAIN  
WILL BE LANGDON-GRAND FORKS-FERGUS FALLS MN. WEST OF THIS AXIS  
WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF TODAY. AS FOR  
PTYPE THE PRECIPITATION AREA IS FALLING IN AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS  
ARE 36-41 DEGREES AND THEREFORE RAIN. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR A BIT  
OF SNOW MIX AS PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLDER AIR  
SITUATED AROUND DEVILS LAKE, COOPERSTOWN, NEW ROCKFORD, BUT TEMPS  
APPEAR WILL WARM AT THE SFC TO PREVENT ANY IMPACTS.  
 
LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM DRIES UP.  
CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND INTO  
MONDAY WITH MONDAY BEING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND HIGHS 45 TO 50.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
 
PRINCIPAL CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL COME ON TUE/WED IN  
THE FORM OF WIND POTENTIAL TUE AND SOME RAIN FOR LATER TUE INTO  
EARLY THU.  
 
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WILL FEATURE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BE  
ACCOMPANIED BY SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE WINDY  
CONDITIONS OVER ALL BUT EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE STILL VERY WELL LINKED IN  
SUPPORTING A SOLID CORE OF 40 TO AS MUCH AS 50 KT 850 MB SOUTH WINDS  
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  
 
WINDS WILL EASE ON WED AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS  
AND INTO THE MIDWEST. WE'LL BE LEFT WITH MORE OF A TROUGH/SFC FRONT  
ARRANGEMENT (AS CLUSTERED SOLUTIONS MOSTLY MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH INTO  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS) WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ENOUGH PWATS FOR A  
STRATIFORM PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE TUE INTO WED, SLOWLY ENDING OVER  
THE MN SIDE AT SOME POINT ON THU. THESE SOLUTIONS STILL FAVOR A DEEP  
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE  
WEEK, WITH RIDGING JUST WEST OR PERHAPS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS  
SURE WOULD PORTEND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED  
FCST TIME FRAME.  
 
COUPLED WITH EARLY WEEK WARM AIR ADVECTION, THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL  
FEATURE TEMPS THAT ARE ABOVE LATE OCT AVERAGES, INCLUDING OVERNIGHT  
LOWS THAT ARE ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THE TIME.  
 
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021  
 
FOR TAF SITES, DEVILS LAKE IS THE ONE WITH RISK OF MVFR CIGS  
DEVELOPING AS ATMOSPHERE SATURATED IN RAIN TODAY. TIMING IS  
QUESTIONABLE AND HOW LOW THEY COULD GO IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW  
KEPT PREV TAF IDEA OF 1500 FT AGL NEAR 18Z, THOUGH SOME RISK OF  
IFR. OTHERWISE REST OF TAF SITES TO BE VFR WITH CLOUDS 5000 FT  
FARGO TO 10K OR SO GFK/TVF AND CIRRUS BJI. WINDS EAST 5 TO 12 KTS.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 
UPDATE...RIDDLE  
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE  
LONG TERM...WJB  
AVIATION...RIDDLE  
 
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