045
FXUS63 KFGF 280735
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
235 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
TODAY STARTS A QUIET WEATHER WEATHER WISE THAT WILL LAST THRU
THE END OF THE WEEK AT A MINIMUM. ONE 500 MB WAVE MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEAST THRU THUNDER BAY ONTARIO REGION TAKING THE RAIN WITH
IT. OTHERWISE BEHIND IT IS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CANADIAN PRARIRIES, WHICH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THURSDAY
KEEPING TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL AND ALSO KEEP A
LAYER OF MOISTURE AT 850-700 MB LAYER. PATCHES OF CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED THE NEXT FEW DAYS....WITH SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY
LEADING TO HIGH BASED CU MIDDAY AND AFTN AS CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE
LOW. FOR TODAY CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE MID 40S AND FCST HIGHS
UPPER 40S. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THRU
THURSDAY...BUT MAY SHOW UP THIS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IF WARM
ENOUGH TEMPS TO DROP RH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
CLEARING OF LOWER CLOUDS ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF WINDOW BEFORE
SUNSET FOR A FEW GUSTS OVER 40 MPH IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR WINDS TO CREASE WELL
BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. AS WINDS ALOFT ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO WEAKEN FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH AND LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET, THE THREAT FOR GUSTS 45MPH+
ARE GREATLY DIMINISHED. THE WIND ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AS SCHEDULED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING OUR RAIN WILL WORK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR
THE MINNESOTA COUNTIES. IN OTHER NEWS MODERATE PRESSURE RISES
AND A TIGHTENED PGF ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON (WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM)
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. BEYOND TODAY ZONAL FLOW TOMORROW
BECOMES NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THIS LASTING THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK AS HIGHS STAY 45-55 DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY.
WARMING UP FRIDAY ONWARDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS
AS THERMAL RIDING CREEPS OVERHEAD. VARIOUS LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT
WEEK BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION OF A WETTING (>0.10")
RAIN IS LOW.
- TODAY
DRYING PROFILES ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2 ARE LEADING TO
DIMINISHING RADAR RETURNS WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LEADING TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH
ANOTHER TENTH TO QUARTER INCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM FARGO TO
BAUDETTE AND POINTS SOUTH BRINGING EVENTS TOTALS WIDELY ABOVE 1"
IN AREAS THAT CURRENTLY FALL INTO "ABNORMALLY DRY" ON THE
DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATION. DEFINITELY A RAIN THAT FALLS
INTO THE CLASSIC MIDWEST "WE NEEDED THIS" CATEGORY. WINDS AS
STATED ABOVE WILL BE DYING OFF AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH STILL EXPECTED, THOUGH LOOKING TO BE LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT GIVEN A SOUTHERN MN LOW
AROUND 995MB RATHER THAN 990MB AS FORECASTED YESTERDAY RESULTING
IN A WEAKER SURFACE PGF.
- REST OF THE WEEK
ZONAL FLOW TOMORROW WILL USHER IN MUCH CLEARER SKIES, THOUGH IT
WILL ALSO BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WHICH STAY IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK. AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD ARE AROUND 60 SO
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST WOULD BE THE
EXPECTATION. AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND THERMAL RIDGING FINALLY
MOVES EAST OFF THE ROCKIES BRING A SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL
AIRMASS AND PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. DURING
THIS TIME ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW A NUMBER OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THAT COULD BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS BUT ANY GIVEN
CLUSTER NEVER SHOWS A HIGHER THAN 30% CHANCE FOR A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR MORE. THIS SLIGHTLY RAISES CONFIDENCE IN A MOSTLY
INACTIVE PERIOD BUT THINGS ARE CERTAIN TO CHANGE AS IS THE NORM
IN THE WORLD OF WEATHER. THE HDWI ALSO FAILS TO EVER GET ABOVE
THE 75TH PERCENTILE DESPITE DAILY MINRH OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT.
WOULD BE SURPRISED AT THE VERY LEAST IF THERE ISNT A DAY OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS... JUST
NOT SURE WHERE OR WHEN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
MVFR CEILINGS HAVE MOVED EAST OF KBJI IN NORTH CENTRAL MN DURING
THE EVENING, AND VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED AND SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF PERIOD ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO REMAIN AROUND
12-15KT WITH PERIODIC GUSTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
CU IN THE 5-7 KFT AGL LAYER WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
CLEARING BY THE EVENING AS MIXING ENDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AND AS THE SUN
SETS THERE SHOULD BE A TREND TOWARDS LIGHT WINDS (5KT OR LESS)
TUESDAY EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE/DJR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...DJR
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