865
FXUS63 KFGF 220732
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
232 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AND PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
- LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF THE RED RIVER. MAIN HAZARDS ARE 1 INCH HAIL AND 60 MPH
WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 229 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
AFTER COORDINATION, UPDGRADED FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG
WARNING FOR WINDS AND LOWEST RH VALUES IN THE MID 20S PERCENT.
WILL MENTION NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON IN REST OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHERE RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT NORTH OF I-94. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
IN AREAS NORTH OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. COORD WITH BIS/DLH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE 50S. LOOK FOR WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH GUSTS INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING, WITH ONLY
MINOR CHANGES TO PRECIP TIMING LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FROM ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL RED
RIVER VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS TO
PICK UP AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THAT GRADIENT WILL
CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AS LOW PRESSURE IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH COOLER AIR WILL
MOVE IN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STARTS TO MOVE IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT A LOT OF
VARIATION IN THE DETAILS.
...NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ALONG EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING...
WHILE AREAS AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS ARE STILL HANGING ONTO
RELATIVE HUMIDITY READINGS IN THE 20S, LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH
NEAR BEMIDJI, PARK RAPIDS AND WADENA HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO
THE TEENS. WHILE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, LAND MANAGERS
REPORT THAT FUELS ARE DRY ENOUGH TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS BASED ON RH ALONE. RH VALUES WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER
AROUND SUNSET AND SHOULD RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S PERCENT
OVERNIGHT.
..FIRE WEATHER WATCH TOMORROW
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND WINDS WILL
PICK UP TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
THERE WILL BE COME MOISTURE ADVECTION, BUT DEW POINTS WILL NOT
RISE AS FAST AS THE TEMPERATURE WILL. AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD
DROP TO 25 PERCENT OR EVEN LOWER ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN
ND AND WESTERN MN. WHILE WINDS ARE RATHER BORDERLINE EVEN AS
THEY INCREASE, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. BEST PROBABILITIES OF SEEING BOTH HIGHER WINDS AND
LOWER RH VALUES ARE IN WEST CENTRAL MN. SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA WILL SEE WINDS UP TO 25 MPH, AND PROBABILITIES OF GETTING
DOWN BELOW 30 PERCENT RH ARE AROUND 70 PERCENT. AND THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF MORE MIXING THAN EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST, WINDS
WILL BE LOWER BUT CONDITIONS DRIER AND WITH PLENTY OF FUELS IN
THE BEMIDJI AREA FROM LAST YEAR'S WIND EVENT, PUT THEM IN THE
WATCH ALSO.
..MARGINAL RISK THURSDAY
PROBABILITIES FROM THE ENSEMBLE FOR OVER 500 J/KG OF SURFACE
BASED CAPE ARE AROUND 80 TO 90 PERCENT IN A NARROW BAND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE CHANCES FOR GETTING TO
1000 J/KG OR ABOVE ARE LOWER, ONLY AROUND 40 PERCENT, THERE WILL
BE SOME VERY GOOD DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR AT 40 TO 50 KTS. MUCH
WILL DEPEND ON HOW SHOWERS AND A FEW ELEVATED STORMS PLAY OUT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. STILL, HIGH ENOUGH CHANCE
TO INCLUDE A MENTION FOR MARGINAL RISK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAIL
UP TO 1 INCH AND WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, BUT
WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A QUICK
TORNADO SPIN UP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE WILL BE LLWS AS UPPER
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 30 KNOTS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE JUST AFTER SUNRISE, WITH
GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING HEADING INTO THE LATE MORNING
AND INTO MIDDAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, ALTHOUGH GUSTS SHOULD BECOME LESS FREQUENT LATER
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ049-052-053.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ017-024-028>032-040.
UPDATE...LYNCH/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...LYNCH
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