754
FXUS63 KFGF 191927
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
127 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF BRIEF HEAVY SNOW REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
200. VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCED TO NEAR 1/4 MILE AT TIMES.
- PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOW TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
..SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES TO BRING SHORTWAVES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERMAL GRADIENTS REMAIN VERY
STRONG FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE, WHERE THESE
SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING WINTER IMPACTS TO THE
REGION. TODAY'S IMPACTS INCLUDE LIGHT SNOW, BLOWING SNOW, AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND WINTRY MIX. TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. COLD AIR
ADVECTION PREVAILS ALONG NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY,
KEEPING TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR MOST AREAS. A
FEW HIGHS NEAR 20 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. HEADING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, TEMPS START OUT IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH TO NEAR ZERO IN THE SOUTH, WITH WIND CHILLS
AS LOW AS 30 BELOW ZERO. HIGHS WILL REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID
20S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS WARM AIR ADVECTION PREVAILS ALONG SOUTH
WINDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY COULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S;
HOWEVER, A COLD FRONT BRINGS HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOW 20S ON TUESDAY. CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY LOOK SLIGHTLY
WARMER; HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE AND DETAILS REMAIN MINIMAL AT THIS TIME, BUT IT IS WORTH
KEEPING AN EYE ON IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS OVER THE HOLIDAY.
..TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS THIS
AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY RANGED FROM 25-35 MPH, WHICH IS LOFTING
FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW AND LEADING TO VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS LOW AS
1/4 MILE AT TIMES. BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN OPEN
COUNTRY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING, A WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SOUNDINGS SHOW
GOOD SATURATION IN THE DGZ; HOWEVER, A WARM NOSE AT AROUND 800 MB
WILL SERVE TO MELT AT LEAST SOME OF THE FALLING SNOW. SURFACE TEMPS
AT THE TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS IN RESPONSE TO LIGHT ICE FORMATION. BEHIND
THE FRONT, STRONG CAA PREVAILS, WITH POTENTIAL MOMENTUM TRANSFER UP
TO AROUND 800 MB, WHERE WINDS ARE UPWARDS OF 50 KNOTS. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH MIXING IS SUPPORTED; HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE STRONG CAA AND PRESSURE RISES, A MENTION OF WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH
IS SUPPORTED. AS SUCH, AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL TRAVEL
IMPACTS DUE TO SHARPLY REDUCED VISIBILITY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE AREAS OF SNOWFALL
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH KDVL ALREADY SEEING SNOW EARLIER
THIS MORNING. DURING PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW, VISIBILITY WILL
BE REDUCED, POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 1/4 MILE, ALONG WITH IFR CEILINGS.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE WEST, THEN NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
LLWS IS LIKELY AS THE WIND SHIFT OCCURS AS A 50-60 KNOT LLJ
INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. BLSN IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
DIMINISHING CHANCES THIS EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-
016-027.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
004-005-007-008-013-014.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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