610
FXUS63 KFGF 051923
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
123 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WITH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- A STRONGER SYSTEM ARRIVES ON TUESDAY, WITH A 60% CHANCE OF AT
LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
..SYNOPSIS
GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA HAS KEPT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOCKED INTO NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE PAST WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
THIS WILL LEAVE OUR FA IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN, AS WAVES RIDE THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THROUGH THE
HIGH AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AS EACH WAVE APPROACHES, A PERIOD OF WARM
AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO
OCCASIONALLY 30S IN THE SOUTH. THEN, AS EACH WAVE PASSES
THROUGH, SNOW WILL OCCUR OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA, WITH
COLDER/BREEZIER CONDITIONS FILTERING IN ON THE BACKSIDE. THIS
RAPID FIRE PATTERN OF SHORTWAVES CONTINUALLY REPEATS EVERY
COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
..LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.
THE FIRST WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE PLAINS OF MONTANA, SLIDING SOUTHEAST. THE
BEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM RESIDES TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER THE
BROAD NATURE OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL PROMOTE LIGHT SNOW IN THE
SOUTHERN FA DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH ARCTIC AIR HELPING KEEP
THE STORM TRACK A BIT MORE TO OUR SOUTH, TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR HIGHS FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH ON MONDAY. AGAIN,
BROAD/WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL FOSTER LIGHT SNOW, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACTS.
..TUESDAY CLIPPER SYSTEM
BY LATE MONDAY, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES IN ALBERTA. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE
STRONGEST IN THE PARADE OF SHORTWAVES. AN INTERESTING THING TO
NOTE THIS FAR OUT IS THE LACK OF SPREAD IN MODELED SCENARIOS.
TAKE THE 12Z GEFS FOR EXAMPLE. EVERY MEMBER DEVELOPS AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN ALBERTA, TRACKING IT SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARDS OUR FA BY SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE ONLY
REAL DIFFERENCES ARE HOW FAST THE CLIPPER IS, WHICH WILL IMPACT
THE EXACT TIMING OF WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS/ENDS, ALONG WITH
HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW TRACKS. FOR BEING 4 DAYS OUT, IT IS PRETTY
REMARKABLE THAT THE DIFFERENCES IN THE SYSTEMS TRACK FROM
ENSEMBLES MEMBERS IS ON THE ORDER OF COUNTIES, NOT HALF OF
STATES WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE TYPICAL AT THIS TIMEFRAME.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO STRESS, HOWEVER, THAT EVEN THOUGH THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS FAIRLY CERTAIN, THE SMALL DIFFERENCES
THAT REMAIN WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN DETERMINING THE DEGREE AND
TYPE OF IMPACTS AT ANY ONE LOCATION, SUCH AS IN YOUR OWN BACKYARD.
THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CRUST
AT LEAST SOME OF THE SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA, LIMITING ITS
BLOWABILITY AND INCREASING RELIANCE ON NEW SNOWFALL TO REDUCE
VISIBILITY. WARM TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LIKELY
COMPLICATE PRECIPITATION TYPE AS WELL FOR SOME LOCATIONS, AND IMPACT
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS ELSEWHERE. SNOWFALL RATIOS WILL LIKELY
NOT BE CONSISTENT THROUGHOUT THE EVENT EITHER, AS COLDER AIR
WORKS IN ON THE BACKSIDE. ADD ON TOP THAT CONCEPTUALLY, SYSTEMS
SUCH AS THIS ONE USUALLY HAVE THE HEAVIEST SNOW (ASSOCIATED WITH
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENSIS) DISPLACED TO THE NORTH OF
WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS (ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGEST SURGE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD DRAPED COLD FRONT)
OCCUR. EFI HIGHLIGHTS THIS DIFFERENCE WELL, WITH BOTH SNOW AND
WIND SHOWING A SHIFT OF TAILS, BUT IN DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT
AREAS. THEREFORE, AT THIS TIME IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE
WHICH EXACT TYPE OF IMPACTS WILL OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ONE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
MVFR WILL PERSIST FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD, AT MOST TAF
SITES. THE CURRENT MVFR DECK OVERHEAD WILL TAKE ALL AFTERNOON TO
WORK ITS WAY THROUGH ALL TERMINALS. THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW
RANDOM FLURRIES, MOSTLY IN THE NORTH, SO ADDED A PROB30 TO KTVF,
WHERE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN BROUGHT DOWN TO 5SM FROM TIME TO TIME
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. AS WE GO INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT BREAK WHERE WE GO VFR, HOWEVER
TIMING OF THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN/VARIABLE. IN ADDITION, WITH
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, IT MAY BE HARD FOR
CEILINGS TO RISE MUCH BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN. THEREFORE, OPTED TO
KEEP MVFR CEILINGS GOING THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT
KDVL, KGFK, KFAR AND KTVF, KNOWING THAT THERE MAY BE AN HOUR OR
TWO OF VFR EMBEDDED WITHIN THAT IS TOO DIFFICULT TO TIME OUT AT
THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF CEILINGS, WINDS WILL PICK UP A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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