460
FXUS63 KFGF 241201
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021
AREA OF RAIN INCREASED IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND TAKING SHAPE OVER
CENTRAL ND WITH RADAR LOOP INDICATING MAIN 500 MB SHORT WAVE AXIS
FROM WILLISTON TO BISMARCK WITH RAIN AREA LIFTING NORTH FROM
VALLEY CITY AND CARRINGTON TO BISMARCK AND MINOT NORTHWARD. SFC
TEMPS IN PRECIPITATION AREA ARE 36 TO 39 SO RAIN. STILL MONITORING
PRECIPITATION AS IT ENTERS DEVILS LAKE AS SOME SITES INDICATE
TEMPS 34 BUT INDICATIONS ARE ANY SNOWFLAKES WILL NOT BE IMPACTFUL.
TWEEKED POPS FOR HIGHER POPS THERE NEAR THE SD/MN/ND BORDER AS
MODELS CONTINUE POOR HANDLING OF THAT AREA OF LIGHT RAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021
500 MB TROUGH AXIS LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST AND CENTERED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AT 07Z. MOISTURE, MOSTLY MID LEVEL, IS RUNNING INTO A VERY DRY
AIRMASS OVER MANITOBA TO THE WEST OF THE CENTRAL ONTARIO 500 MB
LOW. THEREFORE THE IDEA OF THIS SYSTEM WEAKENING PRECIPITATION
WISE AND THEN EVENTUALLY DRYING UP THIS EVENING SEEMS REASONABLE.
THIS EARLY MORNING SHOWS POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM REGINA
SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHEAST THRU NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND
AND INTO NE SOUTH DAKOTA. THE ACTIVITY IN NE SOUTH DAKOTA
(ABERDEEN AREA) HAS BEEN HEAVIER THAN THE 00Z AND PRIOR MODELS
INDICATED. WILL SEE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY EXPAND ESP BIS/MOT
REGION TODAY WHERE NBM HAS HIGHEST CHANCES FOR MORE THAN 0.10 INCH
OF RAIN. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NE EXTENT OF ANY MEASURABLE RAIN
WILL BE LANGDON-GRAND FORKS-FERGUS FALLS MN. WEST OF THIS AXIS
WILL HAVE SCATTERED TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF TODAY. AS FOR
PTYPE THE PRECIPITATION AREA IS FALLING IN AREAS WHERE SFC TEMPS
ARE 36-41 DEGREES AND THEREFORE RAIN. STILL SOME CHANCE FOR A BIT
OF SNOW MIX AS PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO COLDER AIR
SITUATED AROUND DEVILS LAKE, COOPERSTOWN, NEW ROCKFORD, BUT TEMPS
APPEAR WILL WARM AT THE SFC TO PREVENT ANY IMPACTS.
LIGHT RAIN WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING AS SYSTEM DRIES UP.
CLOUDS WILL START TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY WITH MONDAY BEING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND HIGHS 45 TO 50.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021
PRINCIPAL CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL COME ON TUE/WED IN
THE FORM OF WIND POTENTIAL TUE AND SOME RAIN FOR LATER TUE INTO
EARLY THU.
MON NIGHT INTO TUE WILL FEATURE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO GENERATE WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER ALL BUT EXTREME EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ARE STILL VERY WELL LINKED IN
SUPPORTING A SOLID CORE OF 40 TO AS MUCH AS 50 KT 850 MB SOUTH WINDS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
WINDS WILL EASE ON WED AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE MIDWEST. WE'LL BE LEFT WITH MORE OF A TROUGH/SFC FRONT
ARRANGEMENT (AS CLUSTERED SOLUTIONS MOSTLY MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS) WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ENOUGH PWATS FOR A
STRATIFORM PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE TUE INTO WED, SLOWLY ENDING OVER
THE MN SIDE AT SOME POINT ON THU. THESE SOLUTIONS STILL FAVOR A DEEP
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE SE CONUS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH RIDGING JUST WEST OR PERHAPS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS
SURE WOULD PORTEND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FCST TIME FRAME.
COUPLED WITH EARLY WEEK WARM AIR ADVECTION, THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL
FEATURE TEMPS THAT ARE ABOVE LATE OCT AVERAGES, INCLUDING OVERNIGHT
LOWS THAT ARE ABOVE FREEZING MUCH OF THE TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2021
FOR TAF SITES, DEVILS LAKE IS THE ONE WITH RISK OF MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING AS ATMOSPHERE SATURATED IN RAIN TODAY. TIMING IS
QUESTIONABLE AND HOW LOW THEY COULD GO IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW
KEPT PREV TAF IDEA OF 1500 FT AGL NEAR 18Z, THOUGH SOME RISK OF
IFR. OTHERWISE REST OF TAF SITES TO BE VFR WITH CLOUDS 5000 FT
FARGO TO 10K OR SO GFK/TVF AND CIRRUS BJI. WINDS EAST 5 TO 12 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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