624
FXUS63 KFGF 020545
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1145 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOWFALL MAY IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS IS 40%.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
LIGHT SNOW HAS HUNG ON A BIT LONGER THEN FORECASTED. LUCKILY
THIS LIGHT SNOW IS NOT CAUSING ANY IMPACTS. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 5PM,
WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWING VISIBILITY ABOVE ONE MILE AT ALL
SITES. HOWEVER, SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRACK THROUGH
THE REGION. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING, SLOWLY WANING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. MADE
CHANGES TO THE GOING GRIDDED FORECAST TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
..SYNOPSIS
POST COLD FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S CLIPPER SYSTEM
IS CONTINUING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON, CONTRIBUTING TO BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITY.
THIS IS IMPACTING TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. MORE DETAILS ON THIS FOUND BELOW.
OVERALL STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST REGIONS THROUGH MAJORITY OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER JET LINGERS OVER THESE REGIONS BETWEEN
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER TROUGHING IN THE
EASTERN CONUS/EASTERN CAN. TOWARD THE SURFACE, A TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT PARALLELS THE AXIS OF THIS JET, WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE JET, AND COLDER AIR TO ITS NORTH AND EAST.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATES SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR
UPPER/MID LEVEL WAVES AND PACIFIC-SOURCED MOISTURE TO MOVE
THROUGH THIS FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIE PROVINCES, INTO UPPER MIDWEST NEXT WEEK. EACH WAVE WILL
BRING ITS OWN PERIOD FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. AS SUCH, EACH WILL HAVE ITS
POTENTIAL TO BRING WINTER IMPACTS, MAINLY TO TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES COMES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA MONDAY DURING THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING SPATIALLY THIN BAND/S OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL,
OF WHICH WILL IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW
AND BRIEF HEAVY SNOW RATES SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITY.
THIS INCLUDES POTENTIALLY IMPACTING OUR AREA'S TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. MORE DETAILS FOUND BELOW.
THEREAFTER, THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR RELATIVELY QUICK
BOUTS OF SNOW FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, CONTINUES TO DISAGREE IN HOW EACH
OF THESE WAVES WILL TREK AND EVOLVE THROUGH OUR REGION AS THEY
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT. THUS, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS IS LOW. THIS ALSO LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEXT WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM ANY POTENTIAL WAVE, THERE STILL MAY BE
IMPACTS THAT RESULT, MAINLY TO TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE FLIRT WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AFTER EXITING OUT OF THE RECENT STRETCH OF VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES - RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCE FOR ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.
..BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ORGANIZED INTO HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE
ROLLS ARE BRINGING BURSTS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. THESE SNOW
SHOWERS COMBINED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO 30 MPH AMID
LOCALLY TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND TEMPERATURES INTO THE
TEENS ABOVE ZERO ARE CONTINUING TO REDUCE VISIBILITY IN THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN VALLEY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. AT
TIMES, BLOWING SNOW IS REDUCING VISIBILITY TO HALF A MILE OR
LESS AS OBSERVED ON AREA WEBCAMS AND AUTOMATED SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET WHEN WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO SUBSIDE TO A POINT WHERE BLOWING SNOW LESSENS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY BECOMES MORE SPORADIC INTO THE EVENING.
..POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SNOWFALL MONDAY
THE NEXT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WILL
QUICKLY MOVE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND, MORE IMPORTANTLY,
PARALLEL TO THE ZONE OF BAROCLINICITY. THIS WILL PROMOTE BANDED
SNOWFALL FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) OVER THIS ZONE OF
BAROCLINICITY AS WELL AS WEAK TO MODERATE VORTICITY ADVECTION
ALOFT AS THE WAVE QUICKLY MIGRATES SOUTHEAST.
OVERALL, FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE SPATIALLY SMALL; AND THE
PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE CLIPPER
THROUGH THE REGION RELATIVELY QUICKLY. WHILE THE PROGRESSIVE
AND SPATIALLY SMALL NATURE OF FORCING WOULD PROMOTE LESS
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION, THE PARALLEL MOVEMENT OF
FORCING/PRECIPITATION TO THE FLOW ALOFT AND TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
WILL SERVE TO INCREASE CHANCE FOR RESIDENCE TIME OF SNOWFALL
OVER ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR STEEP LAPSE RATES
ALOFT BE NEST WITHIN AND JUST ABOVE THE DGZ, COLLOCATED WITH
STRONGEST FORCING ALOFT. THIS WILL SERVE TO LOCALLY ENHANCE
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH CONVECTION AND EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCTION.
THERE IS ALSO A WEAK SIGNAL FOR FRONTOGENSIS NEAR THE WAA
REGIME, WHICH CAN ALSO LOCALLY ENHANCE SNOWFALL.
THESE MESOSCALE FACTORS LEND CREDENCE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES TO ACCOMPANY NARROW BANDS OF SNOW, OF WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW.
SOME CONVECTIVE, HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOES DEPICT A SCENARIO
WHERE VERY LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS IN THE 5-6 INCH RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS SCENARIO WOULD DEPEND ON NARROW BANDS OF HEAVY
SNOW TO RESIDE OVER LOCAL AREAS FOR EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME AS
THE PROGRESSIVE CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH.
AS OF NOW, ENSEMBLE AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE BRING SNOWFALL
FROM NORTH-CENTRAL ND, SOUTHEAST ND, INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN. THIS
INCLUDES PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN, SHEYENNE
RIVER VALLEY, SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN.
TIMING OF SNOW INTO THESE AREAS IS FAVORED TO BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON MONDAY WITHIN ND, AND CLOSER TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN.
HEAVY SNOW RATES WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY BETWEEN QUARTER
TO HALF A MILE, PERHAPS AT TIMES BELOW QUARTER MILE. WEAK WINDS
LESS THAN 15 MPH ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THIS, WITH VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS PURELY DRIVEN BY HEAVY SNOW RATES.
AREAS THAT SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3 OR MORE INCHES AS
WELL AS HEAVY SNOW RATES WILL SEE IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A 40% CHANCE FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL IMPACTS IN THESE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS. MVFR
WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH PROB30 GROUPS SHOWING LIGHT SNOW
ON THE DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS. CEILINGS WONT BUDGE TO
START OFF MONDAY, AND ANOTHER SYSTEM TRACKING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING SNOW TO KDVL AND KFAR, SKIRTING NEAR KGFK. KDVL WILL
EXPERIENCE THE HIGHEST IMPACTS, WITH PREVAILING IFR
VISIBILITIES MID MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NARROW BANDS
OF HEAVIER SNOW MAY BRIEFLY DROP VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE,
PARTICULARLY AT KDVL AND KFAR. FUTURE ITERATIONS OF THE TAF WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL INCLUSION OF A TEMPO
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, AS ITS A BIT TOO EARLY YET TO ADD ONE
IN. CEILINGS WILL BEING IMPROVING AT NORTHWEST TERMINALS BY
AFTERNOON (KTVF AND KBJI). IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW TO MAKE MUCH
HEADWAY TO OTHER TERMINALS, WITH MVFR FAVORED ELSEWHERE
THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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