484
FXUS63 KFGF 230452
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED
BY NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LIGHTNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..SYNOPSIS
BLOCKED UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS UPPER RIDGING IS DRIVING
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CURRENTLY OVER THE
REGION. WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW IS
UTILIZING WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT, HELPING SPARK SCATTERED
RAIN/VIRGA SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PREVENT
MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND, THUS ADDED
SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ON FRIDAY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ONCE MORE
WITH WIDESPREAD 70S FORECAST DURING THE DAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 20-40 MPH WILL ALSO BUILD
STARTING FRIDAY BY LATE MORNING, LASTING THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK EASTWARD,
ALTHOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL OCCUR IN A SPLIT-FLOW-
LIKE REGIME, WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN
NORTHERN CONUS AND CANADA SEPARATING FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
LINGERING IN THE SOUTHWEST. AS IT DOES THIS, IT BRINGS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES AT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALOFT TO BRING LIGHTNING/THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE CONVERSATION. A LACK OF BETTER INSTABILITY, MOISTURE,
AND WIND SHEAR SPACING WILL MITIGATE HOW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE - LIKELY KEEPING STORMS WEAK.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
DRIVEN BY THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ENDS OUR
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT, OCCURRING EARLY MORNING SATURDAY.
THIS STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS - THIS TIME OUT OF THE WEST. WINDS HAVE A MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE IN REACHING ADVISORY-CRITERIA (IE SUSTAINED 30-40 MPH,
GUSTS 45-55 MPH) IN EASTERN ND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY,
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT STILL GUSTY WINDS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TURN MORE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING NEXT WEEK. AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN COMES AROUND MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN MODELED GUIDANCE REGARDING WHETHER OR
NOT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION.
AT THIS TIME, LIGHT SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY, BUT CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT SHOULD FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY MORNING INTO
THE 15-25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. CLOUD COVER
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN VFR. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH, THEN SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY AT KFAR, KBJI, AND KTVF.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...LYNCH
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