297
FXUS63 KFGF 170015
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
715 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM IS
POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ROUND OUT THE DAY, WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS MOISTURE RETURNS WITH AN
INCOMING SYSTEM. THOUGHTS REMAIN THE SAME WITHIN THE DISCUSSION
REGARDING SHOWER AND STORM EVOLUTION SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, IT IS WORTH NOTING ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION CAM
GUIDANCE INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 3-5
INCHES, ALONG WITH CONVECTIVE RATES. THIS COULD LEAD TO MINOR
FLOODING IMPACTS, PARTICULARLY IF THESE AMOUNTS/RATES OCCUR
OVER URBAN AREAS. AREAS HOLDING RELATIVELY HIGHEST RISK FOR
FLOODING IMPACTS RESIDE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR.
WHILE THE CHANCE IS RELATIVELY HIGHEST IN THE SOUTH, THERE
COULD STILL BE ISOLATED FLOODING IMPACTS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200
CORRIDOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH LAST NIGHT HAS PUSHED EAST WITH
ACTIVITY INTO CENTRAL WI, WITH THE NEXT UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY
OVER SW WYOMING. UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD ALOFT TONIGHT WITH THE
UPPER SHORTWAVE WAVE FROM SW WYOMING LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS INTO ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE
TO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THEN CONTINUES
TO BUILD AND REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US INTO MID
WEEK, WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE OVERALL PATTERN PROGRESSION AS
HURRICANE ERIN APPROACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN US. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO SET UP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE WEEK. THIS PATTERN TO
LIKELY BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, AND TIMING LIKELY TO BE IN PLAY DEPENDING ON HOW FAST
ERIN TURNS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST EAST AND PROGRESSES OUT OF THE
AREA. THERMAL RIDGE TO BUILD UP THROUGH MIDWEEK AHEAD OF THE
DEVELOPING WESTERN TROUGHING, THEREFORE EXPECT WARMING BACK INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH MID WEEK.
..SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM CHANCES
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVE IN
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH AN AREA OF
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INITIALLY INTO THE
WEST/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE/LIFT, THEREFORE
MORE RAIN/SHOWERS EXPECTED. SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY REMAINS
LIMITED, BUT SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY PRESENT, AND OK SHEAR.
THEREFORE EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED STRONG STORM,
OTHERWISE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS REALLY LIMITED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z BEFORE
INCREASING MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO AROUND
60% AT SITES LIKE KFAR, KGFK, AND KDVL. THIS ALSO COMES WITH
HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AT KFAR.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...MJB
AVIATION...CJ
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