002  
FXUS63 KFGF 190451  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1151 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019  
 
CLOUD AREA BEHIND 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO IS  
CLEARING AREA SPREADING SOUTH INTO FAR NE ND. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS  
HAVE SEEN SOME FOG FORM LANGDON/CANDO AREAS. SO IDEA OF SOME FOG  
FORMATION INTO DVL BASIN SEEMS REASONABLE AND PATCHY INTO PARTS OF  
FAR NW MN DOES AS WELL OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019  
 
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH ALOFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY  
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MID AFTERNOON RADAR  
IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES PERSISTING WEST TO EAST ACROSS AN AREA FROM THE  
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE WOOD REGION. HOWEVER,  
SURFACE OBSERVING SITES ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REPORT PRECIPITATION  
UNDER THESE ECHOES, INDICATING THIS ACTIVITY IS HAVING TROUBLE  
OVERCOMING MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND LIFT MIGHT BE WEAKER THAN THE  
MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE  
LIGHT, A HALF INCH OR LESS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN MODEL  
SOUNDINGS THAT ICE NUCLEATION WILL BE LOST ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF  
THIS ACTIVITY, SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PATCHY  
DRIZZLE AS WELL.  
 
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS SUGGEST OVERSPREADING STRATUS  
BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY, LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. DESPITE  
THIS, LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BETTER MIXING ON TUESDAY  
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30S AGAIN.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOVE  
THROUGH QUICKLY WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DIP SLIGHTLY AND WILL RECOVER ON WEDNESDAY IN  
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ABOVE  
FREEZING.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL  
AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A  
SLOW WARMING TREND THAT IS ANTICIPATED...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING  
THE LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 50 IN THE  
FORESTED AREAS IN MINNESOTA AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE  
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS. AFTER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GREATER  
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS MODELS DIVERGE SO WILL HAVE TO USE A BLENDED  
SOLUTION. BEST CASE SCENARIO IS WITH THE EC WHICH INDICATES MORE OF  
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE  
SOUTHERN STREAM MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS  
FAVORS MORE OF A ROBUST TURN OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST  
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH  
SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUBSEQUENT RUNS. FOR  
NOW...WILL JUST LEAVE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT  
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019  
 
STILL HIGH UNCERTAINITY IN REGARDS TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITY IN PARTS  
OF NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT THRU TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASED  
CONFIDENCE OF SOME FOG INTO DEVILS LAKE WITH CLEARING MOVING IN.  
MORE UNCERTAIN GFK/TVF. ALSO AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN MANY  
AREAS THROUGH LATE MORNING TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING WORKS  
SOUTHEAST.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...RIDDLE  
SHORT TERM...BP  
LONG TERM...HOPKINS  
AVIATION...RIDDLE  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab ND Page
The Nexlab MN Page Main Text Page