663
FXUS63 KFGF 221150
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
550 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY, AND WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH MAY BRING PATCHY
DRIFTING AND BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- 30% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1" OF SNOW AREA WIDE ACROSS 2 SYSTEMS
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACKS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION AND SCALE
IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN OUT OF CANADA THIS MORNING, AND
GETTING MORE REPORTS OF FLURRIES. STILL LOOKING LIKE THERE COULD
BE SOME HCRS LATER TODAY, AND ALREADY STARTING TO GET A FEW
SPOTS WITH 5-6 MILES IN HAZE FOR A SHORT TIME. AT THIS POINT
THINK ANY IMPACTS WILL BE SUB-ADVISORY, BUT SOME MINOR DRIFTING
IS POSSIBLE. STILL SOME VARIATION ON THE EXACT TRACK FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY'S SHORTWAVES, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES COMING IN A
BIT HIGHER FOR AT LEAST AN INCH AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS FOR
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WEAK UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE THE
MAIN BRANCH OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET INCHES NORTH TONIGHT TO
FINALLY KICKS THIS UPPER LOW OUT OF THE REGION. WITH THIS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NOTED IN WATER VAPOR NEAR SASKATOON WILL
SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH THE NW FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT BRINGING INCREASED LIFT AMID SATURATED LOW LEVEL
PROFILES, INCREASING CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. ALONG WITH
THIS IS ALSO SOME WEAK PRESSURE ADVECTION IN THE MORNING AND A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH MAY DRIVE HCR
DEVELOPMENT WITH GUSTS TOPPING 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
CLIPPER TYPE WAVES THEN LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BUT ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW A LARGE VARIANCE IN THE
TIMING AND TRACKS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS.
- TODAY/TOMORROW
WHILE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLEAR THE INCOMING WAVE SHOULD
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR INCREASING STRATUS TONIGHT WITH THE
850-700MB LAYER LARGELY SATURATED ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT POTENTIALLY ENOUGH TO FORCE OUT SOME LIGHT
SNOW TOMORROW. COMBINE THIS WITH A FAVORABLY STEEP BOUNDARY
LAYER AND 925MB WINDS NEARING 30KTS PARTICULARLY IN THE VALLEY
AND EAST AND IT COULD BE A SNEAKY HCR DAY WITH LOW END
BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW IMPACTS AS THE CURRENT SNOWPACK REMAINS
EXTREMELY BLOWABLE.
HITTING COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ALSO LOOKING LESS
LIKELY WITH A 40% CHANCE FROM ROSEAU SOUTH TO THIEF AND WEST
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF HWY 2 TONIGHT. NOT THAT IT WONT STILL BE
CHILLY WITH SUNDAY MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -25 RANGE
BUT NOT QUITE ADVISORY WORTHY. COLD AGAIN MONDAY MORNING WITH
LOWS IN THE MINUS TEENS FOR MORE NORTHERN AREAS BUT LIGHTER
WINDS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS
AGAIN ONLY IN THE -20 TO -25 RANGE.
- TUESDAY TO THURSDAY
LOOKING AT INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE STAMPS THERE IS STILL THE SIGNAL
FOR THE INITIAL TUESDAY WAVE TO BRING A RELATIVELY NARROW SWATH
OF 1-3" SOMEWHERE LIKELY FAVORING AREAS NORTH OF HWY 2 WITH THE
FOLLOWING WAVE MORE IN T-2" RANGE FAVORING AREAS SOUTH OF HWY
200. SO OVERALL MODERATE CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SOME SNOWFALL
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OVER THE DAYS 3-5 PERIOD BUT
ACCUMULATIONS FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION WOULD BE UNLIKELY TO EXCEED
2-3" AT THE MAX. THUS CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS REMAINS LOW GIVEN
THE MIXED BAG OF POTENTIAL TRACKS CURRENTLY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
MVFR STRATUS MOVING DOWN TO ALL BUT KFAR THIS MORNING, AND A FEW
SPOTS STARTING TO SEE SOME FLURRIES. FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY, AND CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
BLSN ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 1-2SM AND NOT
MUCH LOWER. WINDS AND CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE FOR A WHILE THIS
EVENING, BUT MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...JR
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