729  
FXUS63 KFGF 240343 AAB  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1043 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2018  
 
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS  
MOVING INTO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON  
SHOWERS FILLING INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MN,  
SO ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS. LATEST CAMS SHOW THIS  
ACTIVITY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2018  
 
DRIZZLE IS BEING REPORTED IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN EARLY THIS  
EVENING, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOO LOW TO BE PICKED  
UP ON BY RADAR. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF  
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY  
DEVELOPING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 2 THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE STILL  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND MN LAKES  
COUNTRY AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND SFC LOW MOVES IN. ADJUSTED  
RAIN CHANCES A BIT FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT LATEST CAM TRENDS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2018  
 
REMAINS OF YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT FROM FARGO SOUTHWEST TO LOW  
PRESSURE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE  
NORTHEAST AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR FARGO BY 08Z  
MON. AS IT DOES, 850 MB 30-40 KT JET EAST OF SYSTEM WILL CREATE A  
ZONE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH 850 MB CAPES 1500 J/KG RANGE  
NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE SFC BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN  
SD INTO FAR SE ND INTO NORTHERN MN. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE INCREASED  
SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NEAR BOUNDARY THIS EVENING  
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST MONDAY. THUS  
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP GENERALLY BAUDETTE-FOSSTON-FARGO AND  
EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THIS AREA ALSO HAS THE RISK OF GENERAL  
THUNDER. FARTHER WEST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL  
LESS COVERAGE. UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS INDICATE 05-09Z HAS HAVING  
THE BEST CHC FOR ANY STRONG T-STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE ND/SD/MN  
BORDER REGION.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2018  
 
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THAT AN ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE  
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AS NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW ALLOWS MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.  
 
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN  
MINNESOTA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHERN GREAT  
LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE, STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD  
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BRING SCATTERED  
SHOWERS FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER WEATHER  
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHT  
WARMING ACROSS ND/SD/MN REGION BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE  
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN ND/NORTHWEST  
MN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE  
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAY'S SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHWARD.  
COLDER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. BOTH  
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINT THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF  
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT  
DRAPED OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW  
SNOWFLAKES/MIXED PRECIP TYPE ACROSS NORTHERN ND, MAINLY RAIN IS  
EXPECTED. IMPACTS FROM ANY WINTER WEATHER WILL MINIMAL SINCE LOW  
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW FREEZING DURING THE  
EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
 
OVERALL, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH MOST LONG-  
RANGE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING GRADUALLY  
DECREASING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. FROST  
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING  
BECOME MORE COMMON BY LATE WEEK. WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE  
MOST FAVORABLE DAY AS CLEARING SKIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FROST  
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS FOR NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW  
AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THROUGH MID WEEK, DROPPING TO THE  
UPPER 40S FOR NORTHERN ND AND LOW 50S ELSEWHERE BY LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2018  
 
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO  
DETERIORATE NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARD IFR LEVELS AS SHOWERS SPREAD  
ACROSS THE AREA. LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT  
TIMES AS WELL.  
 
A COLD FRONT BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT, BISECTING THE  
AREA AND CAUSING EAST WINDS TO TURN NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT  
(NORTHEAST ND) AND SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT (ELSEWHERE).  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE  
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN. ADDITIONALLY A STRONG LOW  
LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE LLWS CONCERNS OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY AFFECTING  
FAR TO BJI AND AREAS SOUTH.  
 
CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR/VFR WEST TO EAST THROUGH MONDAY,  
WITH THE LONGEST LASTING IMPACTS FOR AREAS FAR TO BJI AND  
SOUTHEAST.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...BP  
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE  
LONG TERM...AM  
AVIATION...BP  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab ND Page
The Nexlab MN Page Main Text Page