436
FXUS63 KFGF 180423
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1123 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH COLD
AIR ADVECTION THE PRIMARY DRIVER WITH GOOD MIXING LEADING TO A
SATURATED TOP OF THE BL WITHIN THE DGZ. AS CAA WEAKENS OVER THE
NEXT 6 HOURS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO MAINLY
NW MN WITH THE UPPER LOW'S MOVEMENT. IMPACTS FROM THESE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO A DENT IN PEOPLE'S MORALE FROM STILL
SEEING SNOW IN MID/LATE APRIL :)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE REMNANTS OF THE WINTER SYSTEM FROM LAST NIGHT REMAINS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW ACROSS
THAT AREA. WITH THE INCREASED SOLAR ANGLE THIS TIME OF YEAR,
SUBLIMATION PROCESSES ALLOW FOR WINTER IMPACTS TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITED, REALLY ONLY ARISING IN THE FORM OF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
DEEP UPPER TROUGHING WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES COLD AND DRY
THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE GENERALLY
BE FAIRLY COOL IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. HEIGHTS BEGIN TO
RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. MOISTURE RETURN IS MEAGER AT BEST. WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 60S AND 70S EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, THIS BRINGS THE POTENTIAL
FOR NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THIS LOOK TO BE MIDWEEK WHERE HDWI
PROBABILITIES REALLY HIGHLIGHT EXCEEDING 90TH PERCENTILE. ERC
PERCENTILES PER NRCC LOOK TO BECOME MUCH MORE FAVORABLE NEXT
WEEK, AND WITH LIVE FUEL MOISTURES REMAINING AT 30%, RED FLAG
WARNINGS ARE A POSSIBILITY DEPENDING ON MESOSCALE FEATURES SUCH
AS CLOUD COVER AND VERTICAL MIXING, WHICH CARRIES A LOWER
PREDICTABILITY HORIZON.
THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE LATE NEXT WEEK AS
RIDGING PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND RETURNS MOISTURE FLOW TO THE
REGION. THE PROFILES APPEAR TO BE WARM, SO AT THIS POINT IN TIME
IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT THAT RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY
ISSUE, HOWEVER WINTER PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT. IN ANY CASE, EFI ISN'T
SETTING OFF ANY ALARM BELLS FOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, SO THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
MOSTLY LOW VFR CIGS WITH SOME TERMINALS STILL SITING MVFR AT
2500-3000FT ON AND OFF THROUGH THE MID MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING EAST WITH MINIMAL IMPACT TO OPERATIONS BUT THESE MAY BE
DRIVING THESE LOCAL CIG REDUCTIONS. WINDS REMAINING NW AT
15-20KTS AND GUSTING UP TO 30KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT DROP
BELOW 12KTS AT ALL SITES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...TT
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