848
FXUS63 KFGF 071941
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
241 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MEDIUM CONFIDENCE CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL SATURDAY NIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- LOW CONFIDENCE NEBULOUS CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WHILE THE JET STREAM IS RELATIVELY MUNDANE IN TERMS OF
CURVATURE IT WILL REMAIN FIRMLY OVERHEAD DIRECTING ANY
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW VIA THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS CORN ADVECTION PIPELINE
DEWPOINTS WILL EASILY CLIMB INTO THE 60S THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
LEADING TO SOMEWHAT HUMID BUT OVERALL SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. WE
WILL BE IN THE 70S TO 80S MOST DAYS WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT 90 IN
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN VALLEY SATURDAY. ASIDE FROM SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK TO BE OVERALL A
RELATIVELY DRY STRETCH WITH NO SOAKING RAINS ON THE HORIZON AND
NO OTHER EYE CATCHING HAZARD POTENTIAL AS RH STAYS ABOVE 35% AND
WIND STAYS UNDER 30 MPH. SOMETHING COULD CERTAINLY POP UP BUT
RIGHT NOW THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY HAZARDOUS WEATHER STEMS FROM
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
- SATURDAY NIGHT STORMS
A WEAK 500MB SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE TRANSITING NORTHERN MINNESOTA
BY 00Z SUNDAY WITH MINIMAL ACTION EXPECTED FROM THIS AS IT
REMAINS DISPLACED TOO FAR NORTH FROM THE MOISTURE OR
INSTABILITY. A TRAILING INVERTED TROUGH AT 850MB WILL BE THE
AREA OF FOCUS OVERNIGHT FOR INITIATION WITH A NICE PLUME OF
THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THERE IS HOWEVER QUITE A
DISPARITY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE GRADIENT AND ITS
NORTHWARD EXTENT WHICH WILL ALSO DICTATE THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. WE COULD SEE A MORE BULLISH SCENARIO LIKE
THE NAM WHERE MUCAPE IS IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG OR SOMETHING ON
THE LOWER END LIKE THE RAP WITH ONLY 1000-2000 J/KG WHERE THINGS
STAY MORE SOUTH OF THE AREA. UNLIKE INSTABILITY THE SHEAR IS
MORE BROADLY AGREED UPON WITH ANYWHERE FROM 40-50KTS (LOCALLY
STRONGER SCENARIOS EXIST). THIS COMBINED WITH THE FACT ELEVATED
CONVECTION SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY POSSIBLE EVOLUTION GIVEN A
NOCTURNAL INVERSION AND ELEVATED HAILERS SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT (ASSUMING STORMS FORM) WOULD THINK
HAIL ANYWHERE FROM 1-1.5" ON THE LOW END TO UP TO 2.5-2.75" IS
POSSIBLE IF SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE NAM VERIFIES. WE'LL
CERTAINLY KNOW MORE BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. FRO REFERENCE THE
HAIL WE GOT OUT IN PARK RAPIDS THIS MORNING OCCURRED IN A VERY
SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MARKEDLY LESS SHEAR IF
THAT HELPS TO PAINT THE PICTURE FOR SATURDAY.
- SUNDAY AND BEYOND
AS THE JET REMAINS OVERHEAD NO SHORTWAVES ARE CURRENTLY
STANDING OUT IN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE BUT GIVEN 1000-2000 J/KG
MUCAPE AND EFF SHEAR OF 30-40KTS MOST DAYS ITS CERTAINLY
PLAUSIBLE TO EXPECT NUMEROUS DAYS TO HAVE STORMS, THE SEVERITY
OF WHICH ALONG WITH THEIR PLACEMENT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE
FIRST DAYS THAT BEGIN TO STAND OUT ARE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR
THIS POTENTIAL BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL MORE GUIDANCE COMES INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT TO START INCREASING MESSAGING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
4-5KFT AND WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO 6-7KFT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS NW
AROUND 10KTS FOR MOST BUT AS HIGH AS 15KTS FOR DVL. GUSTS UP TO
20KTS AROUND THE AREA WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING BETWEEN 00Z AND
02Z. LIGHTER 5KTS WINDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE A BECOMING MORE
VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE
AREA THOUGH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS THROUGH AT THE THE
MORNING HOURS UP TO 18Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT
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