928
FXUS63 KFGF 220431
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL VARY SHARPLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A STRONG THERMAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS IN PLACE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
THE EARLIER BAND WEAKENED/BROKE APART AS ADVERTISED, WITH LESS
ORGANIZED/FAST MOVING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE FAR
SOUTHERN RRV. THERE ARE A COUPLE MODERATE SHOWERS UPSTREAM THAT
MAY BRING A BRIEF WINTRY MIX TO FAR SOUTHEAST ND, HOWEVER WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL (IF ANY).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
700MB FRONTOGENESIS HAS HELPED ORGANIZED A BAND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW OVER NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN (ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR) WHICH IS PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST. WEBCAMS AND
SURFACE REPORTS SHOW BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS BELOW MILE
(MOST LOCATIONS 1-3 MILES) AND SOME INDICATIONS ON WEBCAMS OF
LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS. THIS IS PROGRESSING QUICKLY AND
DRIER MID LEVELS/LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIMIT DURATION
OF ANY HIGHER RATES THAT MAY BE OCCURING AS THIS MOVES ACROSS
OUR REGION. SHORT RANGE CAMS GENERALLY SHOW THIS
DISORGANIZING/WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RRV
AFTER MIDNIGHT, THOUGH SO FAR THEY HAVEN'T DONE A GREAT JOB
UNTIL CURRENT RUNS ON REFLECTING CURRENT COVERAGE/ORGANIZATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
..SYNOPSIS
COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY,
THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY. A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, WITH MUCH
COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH AND WARM AIR TO THE SOUTH. AS SUCH,
TEMPERATURES WILL VARY GREATLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. LOOK FOR A
REBOUND INTO THE 50S FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY BRINGS SIMILAR TEMPS, WITH A SLIGHTLY WARMER DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE DISAGREEMENT, AS WELL AS
SEVERAL POTENTIAL SCENARIOS. HEADING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND,
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH PASSAGE
AND COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXITING THE REGION, AND PRECIPITATION AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY CHANCES ARE RAPIDLY DECREASING AT TAF SITES
IN EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. THERE ARE STILL A FEW POCKETS OF
LINGERING IFR CEILINGS, BUT THEY SHOULDN'T LAST LONG EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD WHERE THEY DEVELOP. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
WEST TO EAST MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON (TAKING LONGER OVER PARTS
OF NORTHWEST MN). NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALSO DECREASE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WOULD BE IN PALACE AND
THERE SHOULD AT LEAST BE SOME SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING. HOWEVER, SO FAR GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING MORE THAN A
SPOTTY/INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR THIS (LOW PREDICTABILITY AND
MUCH LOWER COVERAGE THAN PREVIOUS FOG EVENTS).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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