209
FXUS63 KFGF 181008
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
408 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AND POINTS WEST TODAY. FALLING SNOW ELSEWHERE WILL COMBINE
WITH GUSTY WINDS TO REDUCE VISIBILITY ON A MORE PERIODIC
BASIS.
- WIDESPREAD TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY.
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2,
COMBINED WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, WILL LEAD TO POTENTIALLY
LIFE-THREATENING TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- HIGH WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND WEST.
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THINGS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER AT 09Z. SFC LOW WAS OVER
GRAND FORKS AT 06Z AND AT 09Z WAS IN BETWEEN FOSSTON AND THIEF
RIVER FALLS. TEMPS NEAR AND EAST OF THE LOW 32-35 DEGREES WITH
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TRF/FOSSTON AREA. THE TWO LOW SYSTEM WHICH
HAS BEEN AROUND THIS EVENING DOES SEEM TO HAVE BECOME ONE LOW
WITH THE MAIN ONE NOW IN NW MN. I AM NOT SEEING THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY ON WIND FIELDS AT THE PRESENT WESTWARD INTO WEST
CENTRAL ND WHICH HAD BEEN THERE PREVIOUS HOURS. 500 MB LOW AS
WELL IS DEVELOPING STRONGER NOW IN CENTRAL ND AND STARTING TO
SEE MORE MOISTURE WRAPAROUND IT ON THE WEST END AND ALSO
INCREASED MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION NORTHEAST PART OF THE UPPER
LOW IN NORTHEAST ND. THIS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ESE INTO
SOUTHWEST OR WEST CENTRAL MN AT 18Z THU. ALL THIS WILL PUT AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND FAR NORTHWESET MN IN A FAVORED
ZONE OF SNOW ON THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
ECMWF DID INCREASE MOISTURE AND NBM/WPC QPF AND SNOWFALL
INCREASED AS WELL SHOWING SNOWFALL TOTALS NOW THRU THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MORE IN THE 3-6 INCH RANGE GRAND FORKS TO BAUDETTE.
FROM SPC MESO PAGE, 925 MB COLD ADVECTION INCREASING SOUTHWARD
AND ALSO SEEING AN INCREASE IN 925 MB WINDS IN THE WINNIPEG AREA
AND NORTH. HREF SHOWS CONTINUED IDEA OF A POCKET OF 55-60 KT 925
MB WINDS INTO THE NORTHERN VALLEY 10Z TO 15Z AND THEN OVER THE
CENTRAL RRV 15-18Z BEFORE DIMINISHING A BIT TO 45 KTS IN THE
SOUTHERN RRV 18Z-21Z. SO ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT SNOW RATES AND
WINDS WILL RAMP UP OVER NORTHEAST ND AND ESPECIALLY THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THRU DAWN. WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN THAT
AS WELL WITH 60 MPH WINDS BELCOURT ND AREA AND 55 MPH BOTTINEAU
AND NDAWN WIND GUSTS MID 50S MPH NORTH OF DEVILS LAKE. VSBYS AT
AWOS'S AS WELL IN THE NORTH HAVE BEEN 1/4SM FOR ABOUT 1-2 HOURS
AS OF 09Z ROM ROLLA TO CANDO, LANGDON, CAVALIER. WALSH COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PUT OUT A PUBLIC STATEMENT INDICATING VSBY
NOW 50 FT IN THE COUNTRYSIDE.
WILL NOT DO ANY CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES. STILL QUESTION ON SNOW
RATES WITH RESIDUAL SNOW BAND AS IT MOVES INTO SE ND AND WEST
CENTRAL AS MODELS INCLUDING THE ECMWF WHICH IS STRONGER WITH
SNOW THIS MORNING UP NORTH NOT HAVING AS MUCH FAR SOUTH WITH
AROUND 1 INCH. ALSO A TAD LESS 925 MB WINDS SOUTH OF FARGO.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE RATHER QUICKLY LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST.
FRIDAY...QUICK LOOK SHOWS NEXT UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING
FROM CENTRAL ALBERTA THRU CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA.
WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW BAND TO MOVE THROUGH DAYTIME FRIDAY,
MAINLY NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NW MN WITH ACCUMS UP TO 1 INCH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
AVIATION WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED BY HAZARDOUS WINTER
WEATHER, INCLUDING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, VERY STRONG WINDS,
LOWERED CEILINGS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THIS IS DUE TO A
VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
RAIN AND WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL IMPACT TAF
SITES THROUGH 09Z. AROUND 09Z, SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW START TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AS TWO OR MORE STRONG
COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BEHIND THESE FRONTS, WINDS
WILL BE INCREMENTALLY INCREASING IN SPEED AS WELL AS TURNING
MORE OUT OF A NORTHERLY DIRECTION. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50KT ARE
FORECAST AT KGFK, KFAR, AND KDVL. THESE GUSTS WILL DRIVE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS PRODUCING 0SM TO 1/4SM VISIBILITIES.
STRONG WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-45KT ARE FORECAST AT OTHER
LOCATIONS, OF WHICH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES BETWEEN
1/2SM TO AT TIMES 1/4SM FROM SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE FORECAST.
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF VERY STRONG WINDS/LIFR CONDITIONS
MEDIUM, WITH TIMING POTENTIALLY OFF BY 2 OR 3 HOURS (MORE LIKELY
TO BE FASTER ONSET THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IN TAFS).
CONVERSELY, CONFIDENCE IN CESSATION OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IS
LOW TO MEDIUM AT TAF SITES.
HOWEVER, BY 00Z THURSDAY EVENING, CONFIDENCE IN MARKEDLY
IMPROVED CONDITIONS INTO VFR BECOMES HIGH AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
FOR KBJI OF WHOM MAY STILL BE UNDER MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-026-027-030-054.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-052-
053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ049-
052-053.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-
007-008-013>015.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-
002-004-005-007-008-013>015.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ006-
009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ016-
017-022>024-027-028-030>032-040.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ029.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ029.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...CJ
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