680
FXUS63 KFGF 171132
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, AND THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LIGHTNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
UPDATE TO KEY MESSAGE FOR THE DAY.
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH THE STRONG MID-UPPER LEVEL
JET IS TRACING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF OUR REGION MORE
WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF OUR LOCAL REGION. THE MAIN FRONTAL
ZONE WHERE BETTER BL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE IS ALSO
TO THE WEST AND SOUTH, KEEPING VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE
LOCALLY.
AS THE MID LEVEL WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION THOUGH WE DO HAVE ENOUGH FORCING, MOISTURE, AND
INSATIABILITY TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTING ACTIVITY. HREF AND LATEST CAMS DO INDICATE
REDEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD
BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OUT AND DISSIPATING THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE IN LOCATION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY IN OUR CWA IS LOWER THAN
24HR AGO, BUT WE STILL EXPECTED SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS AND NON
SEVERE STORMS TO CONTINUE PERIODICALLY TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY, WITH A
SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER JET TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS,
MAINLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A
WETTING RAIN OF 0.2 INCHES TO 0.5 INCHES, HIGHEST FAVORED TO
OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN.
THE PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
PROMOTING CONTINUED COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD UPPER RIDGING INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD PROMOTE A
TREND TOWARD AVERAGE TO PERHAPS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
ALONG WITH GENERAL TREND FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
..SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
STRONG UPPER JET TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA IS
HELPING SUPPLY STRONG DYNAMICAL LIFT FOR ASCENT. THIS FORCING
WILL UTILIZE AVAILABLE, ALTHOUGH MEAGER, MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, TONIGHT, AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
INSTABILITY IS GREATLY LACKING IN OUR REGION, PARTICULARLY AS
STRONGEST FORCING TRAVERSES OUR AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS NULLIFYING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE THE STRONG WIND ENERGY
THAT COULD HAVE BEEN HARNESSED FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR
WIND GUSTS.
THUS, MAIN HAZARD WITH TODAY/TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY'S STORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A SMALL CHANCE IN FUNNELS OR EVEN
PERHAPS A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO GIVEN CONSOLIDATED SPIN IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH - THIS
POTENTIAL IS DEPENDENT UPON THE SURFACE WAVE LINGERING LONGER
THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED, NEAR THE TRI-STATE AREA, INTO THIS
AFTERNOON ALLOWING ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GET STORMS TO FORM
FAVORABLY ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
A SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST ND WITH SEVERAL FRONTS
OVER EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. NORTH OF THESE FRONTS
MOISTURE IS POOLING AND IFR STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
AROUND KDVL AND NORTH CENTRAL ND AND KBJI IN NORTH CENTRAL MN.
GUIDANCE SHOWS STRATUS FILLING IN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN AS THE SURFACE
LOW SLIDES SOUTH AND A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION BEFORE
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR FROM THE NORTHWEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON,
WITH COVERAGE AND DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY HIGHLY VARIABLE.
WINDS SHOULD INCREASE S THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH FROM THE
NORTHEAST THEN NORTH, WITH GUSTS 20-25KT LIKELY AND A LOW CHANCE
FOR GUSTS AROUND 30KT OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ND.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR
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