622
FXUS63 KFGF 282341
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
541 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
STATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ARE STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT
SNOW AND FOG, WITH OCCASIONAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 2 MILES. THE
BAND IS MOVING EASTWARD PRETTY QUICKLY, SO STILL ONLY EXPECTING A
DUSTING AT MOST. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO GO WITH A HIGH POP/LOW
QPF SCENARIO, BUT THINK THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD EXIT OUR EASTERN FA
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. BEHIND THAT, THERE IS A MIX OF CLOUDS
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SPOTS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
IMPACT POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS LOW, WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE TEENS, WITH HIGHS IN THE
20S FOR TUESDAY. WEST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15
MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AND INTO
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY. CAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TUESDAY EVENING, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW
TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
WE WILL SEE A SHIFT FROM NW FLOW TO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. A RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES PUSHING WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION CHANGING FLOW FROM
NW TO ZONAL BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REACH THE TEENS TO 20S
WEDNESDAY, BUT RISE INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A CHILLY MORNING AS THURSDAY LOWS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS IS ALL SHORT LIVED AS A SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING SNOW CHANCES TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THAT ZONAL
FLOW AND PICKS UP MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTH HELPS TO KEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE OUT OF OUR REGION
BLOCKING THE SYSTEM FROM TAPPING INTO IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT
ACCOMPANIES THE SYSTEM TO BRING US LIGHT SNOW. GUIDANCE INDICATES
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, WITH GREATER THAN AN INCH SITTING AROUND 50-70%
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I94. AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 2 HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE TO SEE UP TO 2 INCHES. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 4 INCHES
REMAIN LOW <10%. THE SYSTEM WOULD NEED TO INGEST FURTHER MOISTURE
FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO TO INCREASE THOSE CHANCES. TRACK
OF THE SNOW REMAINS LOWER IN CONFIDENCE AS GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO
PLACE IT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE SD BORDER AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT 500MB. AS OF
RIGHT NOW WE CAN SAY THERE WILL BE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS
FROM THE SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ONE THING TO NOTE IS THE STRONG PULL OF NW FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES AT THE 850MB LEVEL, INDICATING STRONG CAA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS COULD BRING HIGHER WIND GUST POTENTIAL
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OUT OF THE REGION. HIGHER WIND GUSTS, WITH
FALLING SNOW COULD BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES BUT HOW
REDUCED IS UNCERTAIN. OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE IS NOTED BY THE
WEEKEND, WITH ZONAL TO NW FLOW BRINGING COOLER MORNING LOWS IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
LOOKS LIKE A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS TO SET UP FOR THE 1ST
PART OF DECEMBER.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022
THIS IS A SOMEWHAT TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST, MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD
COVER. TO START, THE LIGHT SNOW AND FOG AFFECTING KBJI SHOULD EXIT
OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. BEHIND THAT, THERE WILL BE A MIX
OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, MAINLY LOW END VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS
WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A WEST TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT OVERNIGHT, BUT
THEY WILL REMAIN STEADY (NOT LIGHTEN UP). BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY
MORNING, THEY WILL SHIFT MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST, AND BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO THICKEN UP AGAIN, WITH SOME MVFR
CEILINGS SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...LYNCH
LONG TERM...SPENDER
AVIATION...GODON
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