457
FXUS63 KFGF 021326
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
726 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS FROM THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY DEGRADE TRAVEL CONDITIONS,
PARTICULARLY WITHIN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
- INTERVALS OF BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK, ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES AFTER THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 726 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
A FEW FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED UNDER THE RADAR RETURNS
CURRENTLY SLIDING OVER NORTHEASTERN ND. I SPED UP THE TIMING OF
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY RISE OVERNIGHT NEARLY AREA WIDE AS OUR
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WARMING TREND
IS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, WHERE A DEEPER SNOWPACK HAS
KEPT TEMPERATURES STUBBORNLY STUCK IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH THE PAST FEW
DAYS, AND LOOKS TO REMAIN SIMILAR THROUGHOUT THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. IT CAN BE SUMMARIZED AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS, WHICH LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS STUCK IN
NORTHWEST FLOW, RIDING A WAVERING BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGHOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW, THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES. EACH WAVE WILL BRING A BRIEF WARMUP OUT
AHEAD OF THEM IN A WAA REGIME, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OVER SOME/ALL OF THE FA, AND FINALLY A REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR. THIS GENERAL PATTERN RINSES AND REPEATS THROUGH
MULTIPLE CYCLES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SNOW AND WIND
A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS
PROPAGATING TOWARDS OUR FA THIS MORNING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WITH
A SURFACE LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED TO THE SOUTH
OVER WESTERN ND, A BROAD AREA OF MID LEVEL WAA RESIDES ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. RADAR RETURNS HAVE BROKEN
OUT WITHIN THIS WAA REGIME FROM NEAR MINOT AND POINTS TO THE
NORTH. DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS LIMITING MUCH FROM REACHING THE
GROUND ON THE US SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT THIS TIME,
BUT AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN SATURATES, SNOW WILL BEGIN. FIRST
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHT (A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH) DUE TO THE
WEAK AND TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE FORCING AT PLAY. TOTALS WILL BE
HIGHEST IN NORTHWESTERN MN, WHERE THE WAA REGIME WILL LAST A LITTLE
LONGER COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE FA. EVEN HERE IN NORTHWESTERN MN,
SNOWFALL TOTALS WIL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO EXCEED AN INCH.
AS THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, A BUBBLE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE FORECASTED TO PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 25 MPH
WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH A BLOWABLE SNOWPACK ON THE GROUND
IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, THE BLOWING SNOW TABLE GIVES
PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...CONTINUED COLD AND LATE WEEK SNOW
OUR ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE BEYOND WEDNESDAY, AS
ENSEMBLES INDICATE YET MORE WAVE(S) FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME, THE EVOLUTION OF EACH WAVE IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN, AS ENSEMBLES PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES VARIES
FROM RUN TO RUN. THIS PERIOD WILL NEED WATCHING AS IT
APPROACHES, BUT DUE TO THE LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS RANGE
FROM THE WIDE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL SCENARIOS, NO MAJOR CHANGES
CAN BE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST THAT CONTAINS A SPATTERING OF
LOW SNOW CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM LATE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
CEILINGS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE TODAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. ALL TAF SITES ARE STARTING OUT AT VFR EXCEPT FOR
OCCASIONALLY KDVL, WHERE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT
SNOW CONTINUE TO PERSIST. AS WE WORK THROUGH TODAY, WE WILL SEE
A GENERAL LOWERING OF CEILINGS, WITH MVFR PREVAILING BY LATE
AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT
SNOW. AS SNOW ENDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT, NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE. WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE FORECAST,
STRONGEST AT KFAR AND KGFK. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP AND
CEILINGS SLOWLY RISE AT THE TAIL END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, BUT THE
BETTER IMPROVEMENT LIKELY RESIDES JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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