979
FXUS63 KFGF 110237
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
937 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENT LATER THIS WEEK THOUGH MULTIPLE
SCENARIOS REMAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 901 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY CONTRIBUTING TO TODAY'S
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE WANING WITH SUNSET AND
THE CESSATION OF DAYTIME MIXING.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST,
INTRODUCING BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS, COOLER TEMPERATURES,
AND INCREASINGLY CLOUDY SKIES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING. FOG BEHIND THE FRONT MAY DEVELOP IN PORTIONS
OF WEST-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. RAIN
SHOWERS OVERRIDING THE COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY
TROUGHING CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WASHINGTON/SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ITS SLOW MOVEMENT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND HOW
IT INTERACTS WITH DOWNSTREAM EASTERN CONUS RIDING. IN THE NEAR
TERM THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL WORK TO WEAKEN
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER BERMUDA ALLOWING EASTERN RIDGING AN AVENUE
TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME TROUGHING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/HUDSON BAY WILL WORK SOUTH FLATTENING THE
RIDING AND ALLOWING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH CONUS TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID LEVELS.
- TODAY
LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. THIS
CURRENTLY KICKING OFF SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS ATOP A WELL MIXED
LAYER WITH ABOUT 200MB OF DRY AIR BENEATH THEM PREVENTING
ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRONG WINDS OCCASIONALLY MAKE TO THE SURFACE AS SHOWERS
MOVE PAST (30-40MPH) VIA VIRGA BOMBS AND EVEN SOME LIGHTNING
LATER TODAY AS THE INSTABILITY PROFILES BUILDS TO OVER 500
MUCAPE. MIXING WILL REMAIN STRONGEST IN OUT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TO 20MPH AND GUSTS OCCASIONALLY OVER 30MPH (SYNOPTIC
NOT CONVECTIVE). RH HAS ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ALONG
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER WITH FURTHER FALLS INTO THE MID/LOWER 20S
PERCENT BY 3PM BRINGING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO SOUTHEAST
ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. FUELS REMAIN QUESTIONABLE
WITH ERC STILL BELOW THE DAILY AVERAGE (AROUND 15-20). AN SPS
REMAINS IN EFFECT TO AID THE MESSAGING OF THIS BUT A RFW IS NOT
BEING CONSIDERED.
- WEEKEND RAIN
TRANSIENT VORTICITY ADVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF
TODAYS COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY
SOURCE OF LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT OVERALL FORCING REMAIN
FAIRLY NEBULOUS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER A GENERAL
TENTH TO QUARTER INCH SEEMS LIKLEY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 200
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- LATE WEEK PRECIP CHANCES
PNW TROUGHING BY TUESDAY WILL HAVE DEVELOPED INTO AN UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY CUTOFF FROM STEERING FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A
STRONG JET STREAM EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS STRONG 100+ KT JET
STREAM WILL INDUCE A STRONG SURFACE RESPONSE WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST AS SW FLOW ALOFT BRING
FORCING LATER IN THE WEEK FROM EJECTING SHORTWAVES TO RING OUT
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE PARTS THAT REMAIN UNCERTAIN ARE 1)
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND 2) HOW ANY PASSING WAVES
INTERACT WITH SAID MOISTURE (TRACK/TIMING). GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN CLUSTERS
WITH ANYWHERE FROM A 0.25 TO OVER AN INCH OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
AN AIRMASS POTENTIALLY COLD ENOUGH TO BRING VARYING P-TYPES
INTO PLAY BUT BEING 5-7 DAYS OUT STILL WOULD LIKE TO SOME SOME
CONSISTENCY IN THAT BEFORE RAISING ANY CAUSE FOR ALARM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 901 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
PRESENTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE TO MVFR, IFR, AND AT
LOCATIONS LIKE KBJI, LIFR. THESE CHANGING CONDITIONS ARE A
RESULT OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA, CHANGING WINDS
FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NORTH-NORTHWEST 10-20KT. GUSTS INTO
THE UPPER 20KTS ARE FORECAST WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY,
INCLUDING KGFK AND KFAR MONDAY AFTER 12Z. THERE IS AROUND A 40%
CHANCE GUSTS COULD TOUCH 30KT, BUT LIKELY NOT EXCEED 33KT.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TREND IN CONDITIONS, MAINLY
AS A RESULT OF LOWERING CEILINGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AT KBJI,
LIFR CEILINGS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY LOWERED VISIBILITIES FROM
EITHER BR OR FG, WITH LIFR CEILINGS FORECAST AFTER 10Z. IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW DENSE FOG MAY BE, IF FOG DEVELOPS AT ALL AT
KBJI.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY, ALTHOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OF RAIN
SHOWERS OMITS ITS INCLUSION WITHIN TAFS. EVEN IF RAIN DOES MOVE
OVER A SITE, RAIN WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT IMPACT FLIGHT
CATEGORIES FROM VSBY REDUCTIONS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...CJ
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