360
FXUS63 KFGF 180200
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
900 PM CDT SAT APR 17 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SAT APR 17 2021
WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, BUT CLOUD COVER HAS BEEN
ON THE INCREASE. THERE ARE SOME ECHOES ON RADAR APPROACHING THE
MINOT AREA, BUT CEILINGS ARE STILL PRETTY HIGH...AND HAVEN'T SEEN
ANY REPORTS OF ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND YET.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT APR 17 2021
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO, BUT THERE WILL BE SPOTTY CLOUD COVER LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING. MORE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE FA
OVERNIGHT, AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES IN. ANY RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE ON SUNDAY, AND THESE
WOULD MAINLY BE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT APR 17 2021
A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A NOTABLE INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL DENOTE THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH A GREATER THAN 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT. THERE
WAS SOME QUESTION OF WHETHER ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL ALLOW FOR DYNAMIC
COOLING TO TURN RAIN SHOWERS INTO SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS WITHIN GUIDANCE NOTING TEMPS WILL
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP LARGELY AS RAIN. HOWEVER,
LOCATIONS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO AN
OVERLAP OF PRECIP AND COLD ENOUGH AIR TO SEE RAIN TRANSITION TO
SNOW SUNDAY MORNING, PERHAPS LEADING TO MODERATE SNOW. THIS
POTENTIAL AND LIKELY GUSTY WINDS MAY PRESENT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY WAY OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
OTHERWISE, POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE MINIMAL DUE TO THE BREVITY OF
SNOW CHANCES UNDER THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF PRECIP. THERE MAY BE
LINGERING POST FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH INTO THE 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY, BUT THE MAJORITY OF TOMORROW WILL BE
NOTED BY COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SAT APR 17 2021
THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS LOW THROUGH THE LONG RANGE
PERIODS.
PATTERN IS HIGHLIGHTED BY PROGRESSIVE FLOW, WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING A
TENDENCY TOWARDS SPLIT-FLOW WITHIN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THERE
IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH A COULD TROUGH PASSAGES
(WED AND AGAIN FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT), THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONSENSUS.
SIGNAL ON WEDNESDAY IS PARTICULARLY LIGHT WITH ONLY A FEW MEMBERS OF
ECWMF ENSEMBLE SUPPORTIVE OF VERY LIGHT QPF. A BIT MORE CLUSTERING
WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT FROM MEMBERS OF GEFS
WITH LOW PROBABILITIES FOR 0.1" OR GREATER WHICH IS LIKLEY INFLUENCE
IN THE NBM SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THAT PERIOD (OTHER MEMBERS ARE
DRY). TEMP PROFILES BY THAT POINT FAVOR RAIN, AND WE WOULDN'T BE
LOOKING AT WINTER IMPACTS IF PRECIPITATION OCCURRED.
AFTER BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY
WEEK, SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS FAVORED THURSDAY, WHICH BRINGS US BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 50S (MAYBE 60S BASED ON 75TH
PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE). TEMPS SHOW A LARGER SPREAD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE DIFFERENT IN TIMING/EVOLUTION OF THE PROGRESSIVE
MID LEVEL TROUGH PASSAGE FALLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE RIDGING.
THIS CREATES A SPREAD BETWEEN 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE OF AROUND 20F IN
HIGHS (40S OR 60S EACH DAY AFTER THU).
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT APR 17 2021
AFTER A BEAUTIFUL SATURDAY EVENING, CHANGE IS ON THE WAY. HOWEVER,
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR IMPACTS UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNDAY MORNING, AS
RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS MOVE INTO THE KDVL/KGFK/KTVF AREAS.
LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND GUST
PRETTY GOOD, ALONG WITH SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS. SOME RISE IN
CEILINGS SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MAINLY AT KDVL, KGFK,
AND KFAR. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALL AFTERNOON, WITH SPOTTY
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...CJ
LONG TERM...DJR
AVIATION...GODON
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