600
FXUS63 KFGF 212336
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF RAIN IN
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT GENERALLY INFLUENCES OUR REGION'S WEATHER
THROUGH SATURDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THIS FLOW WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. PRIOR TO THIS OCCURRING,
PRESENTLY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST COMBINE WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LINGERING DRY FUELS CONTRIBUTING TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
INTO NEXT WEEK, FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY AMID
UPPER RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL INCREASE OVERALL TEMPERATURE TREND, ALLOWING MORE
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S ACROSS OUR AREA BY
TUESDAY, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MONDAY. THIS INCREASES THE CHANCE
FOR INSTABILITY AND SOME MOISTURE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR
REGION, HOWEVER FLOW ALOFT IS FAVORED TO BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION OF THUNDERSTORMS
(SHOULD THEY OCCUR), AS WELL AS LIMITED CHANCE FOR MORE ROBUST
FORCING ALOFT TO SPARK CONVECTION. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR
DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AS IGNITED BY OTHER
SOURCES OF FORCING LIKE SURFACE/TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED
FORCING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS LIKE
LOCATION AND TIMING VERY LOW.
..NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AROUND 25 MPH LINGER IN PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL JUST BEFORE
SUNSET. THIS COMBINED WITH MID 20S RH CURRENTLY IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY (AS WELL AS INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA), IS DRIVING NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS END AROUND OR
JUST BEFORE SUNSET.
..FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RAINFALL
COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A SWATH OF
WIDESPREAD RAIN INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH STARTING
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED IN AN INCREASE IN AMOUNTS, LIKELY OWING TO A TREND
TOWARD A STRONGER PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT SWINGS INTO AND
THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA IN A
NEGATIVELY TILTED FASHION.
WHAT ONCE APPEARED LIKE HIGH END AMOUNTS AROUND HALF AN INCH IS
NOW MORE LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD HALF AN INCH OF RAINFALL, WITH
POTENTIAL TO SEE AROUND 1 INCH. AT THIS TIME, BEST CHANCE FOR 1
INCH IS WITHIN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE RAINFALL MAY LINGER
THE LONGEST.
THUNDER CHANCES STILL LOOK VERY LOW WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING
CAPE VALUES UNDER 300 J/KG. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW EMBEDDED
LIGHTNING STRIKES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF FORCING, BUT OVERALL
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE WINDS
DECREASING A BIT DOWN TO 10 TO 15 KTS BUT SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR AT KGFK AND KTVF AS STRONG WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE A BIT
LONGER. MVFR CEILINGS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE
LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH A FEW SITES GOING DOWN TO IFR.
SOME RAIN WILL PUSH INTO KFAR BY EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH THE RAIN
CHANCES SPREADING TO THE MORE NORTHERN AIRPORTS A FEW HOURS
LATER. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AND GUST UP TO 25 KTS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY IN
DIRECTION.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JR
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