319
FXUS63 KFGF 231805
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
105 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL MODERATE RAINFALL IN SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL
MN MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RUNOFF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY RESULT IN AIR QUALITY IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A 1 IN 5 CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
THE FRONT IS NOW SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA AND THE MAIN INSTABILITY
AXIS IS NOW WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS OVER FOR THE DAY.
ANY FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ALSO TIED TO THIS FRONTAL ZONE WHICH
HAS SHIFTED EAST OF OUR CWA, THOUGH A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL PONDING IF IT FALLS OVER AREAS
THAT ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN EARLIER THIS MORNING. THIS
AREA OF RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH OR TRANSITION OUT OF OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, AND WHILE THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS
OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT THIS WOULD NOT CONTRIBUTE TO
ADDITIONAL RISK OF FLOODING TONIGHT. CONSIDERING THOSE TRENDS I
ADJUSTED THE END TIME OF THE FLOOD WATCH TO 3PM THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
FRONTAL ZONE HAS PUSHED UP ALONG OUR SOUTHEAST CWA WITH THE MAIN
AXIS OF INSTABILITY NOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE ARE STILL
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING TO THE EAST, ALONG/NORTH
OF THIS, BUT ORGANIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT MAY HAVE SHIFTED BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS. WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW, BUT AN EARLY CANCELLATION MAY BE WARRANTED IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE. BASED ON HRRR THE SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO BE SHIFTING
TO OUR SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON IF THIS FRONT CONTINUES THIS
FASTER PROGRESSION. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO NEAR TERM TRENDS
FOR NOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
WATCHING SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
MORNING. THUS FAR, MOST OF THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
SUB-SEVERE; HOWEVER, THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VERY HIGH RAINFALL
RATES COULD BRING FLASH FLOODING TO LOCALIZED AREAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
..SYNOPSIS
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THIS
MORNING, WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE BRINGING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA
PRECEDING THE FRONT. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT,
BECOMING SLIGHTLY MORE ZONAL IN THE COMING DAYS, WITH OCCASIONAL
SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE UPPER BOUNDS OF A RELATIVELY FLAT H5
RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE FRIDAY AS ONE OF THESE STRONGER WAVES
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER SYSTEM. A DEEPER TROUGH BRINGS BETTER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
..SEVERE T-STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE HIGH TODAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THIS MORNING, THE FRONT HAS PROGRESSED WELL
INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, AND WILL
CONTINUE SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. SBCAPE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG, WITH A SHEAR PROFILE
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. PW VALUES CONTINUE TO CLIMB
TOWARDS NEAR RECORD VALUES, RANGING FROM 2.05 TO 2.20 INCHES IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT REMAINS OVER AN AREA
FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO VERY HIGH RAINFALL RATES. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA PRIOR TO REACHING PEAK
HEATING AND INSTABILITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CAMS HAVE BEEN TOO
PROGRESSIVE IN PREVIOUS DAYS, AND LIKELY STILL SHOW SOME BIAS
TOWARDS FASTER MOVEMENT. THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE WILKIN,
GRANT, OTTER TAIL, AND WADENA COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAZARDS COULD INCLUDE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS, ISOLATED TORNADOES, AND FLASH FLOODING.
..ISOLATED SEVERE T-STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
H7 SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HEADING INTO FRIDAY,
WITH GOOD MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES IN THE ANTECEDENT ENVIRONMENT.
AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS, WITH GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS
RATHER WEAK IN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. PW VALUES WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH, GENERALLY RANGING FROM 1.7 TO 2.0 INCHES, THUS ALLOWING A
MENTION OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2025
RAIN AND SOME POCKETS OF MVFR STRATUS CONTINUE OVER SOUTHEAST ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN BUT THIS SHOULD BE ENDING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. SMOKE HAS RETURNED TO THE REGION ACROSS NORTHEAST ND
AND FAR NORTHWEST MN WITH VIS RANGING FROM 1 TO 6SM AT TIMES.
SMOKE IMPACTS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT, THOUGH IFR CHANCES
SHOULD BE DECREASING AFTER THIS AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ039-049-052-053.
MN...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ002-003-017-
022>024-027>032.
UPDATE...LYNCH/DJR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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