024
FXUS63 KFGF 151821
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
121 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45 TO 50 MPH WILL CONTINUE
TODAY MAINLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BLOWING DUST IMPACTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
- DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE WINDS WILL BRING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
COUNTIES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
- ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY, WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. MOST
AREAS WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST HALF AN INCH OF RAIN, WITH A 50
PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO SEE OVER AN INCH OF
RAINFALL.
- THERE IS A 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
BRINGING A THREAT FOR ONE INCH HAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA, AND WILL PULL
EASTWARD INTO ONTARIO TONIGHT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
OUR NORTHERN CWA WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON, AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS HAVE SOME SPOTS MIXING ALL THE WAY UP TO 650MB WITH
GUSTS CLOSE TO 50 KTS OUT OF THE QUESTION. SO FAR THE BLOWING DUST
HAS BEEN LOW IMPACT, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGHER GUSTS REMAINING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW PULLS
EAST TONIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
WILL RELAX THIS EVENING. SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW AS A FRONT DROPS DOWN. THE UPPER FLOW QUICKLY SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING UP INTO
THE REGION MONDAY, THEN THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF
US BY TUESDAY. LOW HEIGHTS WITH THE TROUGH COULD BRING
SOME FAIRLY COOL TEMPS FOR TUESDAY, AND MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR NEAR FREEZING READINGS TUESDAY NIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT A COUPLE OF WEEK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH COULD BRING SOME PERIODIC LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP TO
NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR FRIDAY.
..WIND AND BLOWING DUST POTENTIAL
HIGHEST WINDS SO FAR HAVE BEEN ALONG OUR NORTHERN TIER, ALTHOUGH A
FEW HIGHER GUSTS ABOVE 40 MPH HAVE STARTED POPPING UP ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. SO FAR THE WORST OF THE BLOWING DUST SIGNAL ON
SATELLITE HAS BEEN STAYING UP IN CANADA, BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH
CLOSELY AS WE GET A BIT MORE MIXING THIS AFTERNOON. HREF
PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS OVER 50 MPH ARE STILL AROUND 40 PERCENT IN
PARTS OF OUR NORTHERN TIER. FOR NOW, THE WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES TO
SEEM ON TRACK AND WILL WATCH FOR ANY BLOWING DUST BRINGING
VISIBILITY DOWN BELOW 2 MILES.
..RED FLAG INTO THE EVENING AND OTHER FIRE CONCERNS
WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST UP TO 45 OR 50 MPH IN THE NORTH, AND
EVEN OUTSIDE THE WIND ADVISORY AREA SOME SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND
AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH, WHICH IS PLENTY OF WIND WHEN THE RH IS 20
PERCENT OR LOWER. RED FLAG CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE RHS START TO RECOVER
AND WINDS SLOWLY COME DOWN. CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE DRY INTO
TOMORROW AND A FEW SPOTS IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD GET BELOW 25
PERCENT FOR RH, STAYING AROUND 35 PERCENT IN THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
FORTUNATELY BE A LOT LESS, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS STAYING IN THE
TEENS AND ANY GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH. RELIEF FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD COME SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
..WIDESPREAD RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT,
MOST OF OF THE MODELS BRING IN RAIN STARTING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COMING OUT MONDAY WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH THE TRACK IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH
THAN THE FIRST WAVE. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE
SOUTH WHERE THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR OVER AN INCH OF LIQUID
IN THOSE TWO DAYS. HOWEVER, EVEN UP NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER THE
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST A HALF AN INCH ARE PRETTY HIGH, SO
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN SEEMS LIKELY.
..SEVERE CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL
MN. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE MORNING RAINFALL PLAYS OUT, AND IF
WE CAN GET THE WARM FRONT TO PUSH FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO GET INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. STILL, QUITE A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AROUND 1500 J/KG, EVEN THOUGH THE AVERAGE
SURFACE BASED CAPE IS ONLY AROUND 200 J/KG. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
ELEVATED STORMS THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME QUARTER SIZED HAIL, SO WILL
MONITOR HOW THINGS EVOLVE CLOSELY ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
SOME BLDU AT KGFK HAS DROPPED VISIBILITY INTO THE MVFR TO IFR
RANGE, BUT OTHER TAF SITES HAVE REMAINED VFR. SOME OF LESS
SHELTERED AIRPORTS, ALL BUT KBJI, COULD SEE SOME BLDU LATER
TODAY, BUT WILL KEEP IT 6 MILES AND ABOVE UNTIL IT ACTUALLY
DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY START TO DECREASE THIS EVENING, WITH
GUSTS DROPPING BELOW 30 KTS AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL DROP EVEN
FURTHER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BELOW 12 KTS, BUT WILL
PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST LATE MORNING TOMORROW WITH
SOME GUSTS ABOVE 20 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
MN...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>005-007-
008-013>015-022-027.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...LYNCH
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