636
FXUS63 KFGF 011725
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1125 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS TIME FOR
IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
CLOUD COVER REMAINS MINIMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST, WITH ISOLATED FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CLOUD
COVER. TEMPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE TEENS TO LOW
20S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 226 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED UNDER THE LOW STRATUS OVER THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NORTHEAST ND. THIS CORRELATES WITH WHERE
RAP/HRRR SHOWS 925MB WAA IS IN PLACE AND SATURATION IS JUST DEEP
ENOUGH IN THIS COLD AIR MASS FOR ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH. BASED ON
THE TIMING OF THIS BUBBLE OF WEAK WAA FLURRIES MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH 12-14Z IN OUR NORTHWEST AND FLURRIES WERE ADDED TO THE
MORNING FORECAST PERIOD. A VERY LIGHT DUSTING CAN'T BE RULED OUT
COMPLETELY, BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED. OTHERWISE, FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH A GENERAL CLEARING TREND OF ANY LINGERING LOW
STRATUS STILL FAVORED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ALSO REMAINS ON TRACK THIS
WEEK, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF AN EVENTUAL PATTERN
SHIFT LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR A MORE
ACTIVE STORM TRACK BY THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT NOT A LOT OF
CONSISTENCY ON THE DETAILS (EVOLUTION/TIMING/TRACK) OF ANY
SYSTEMS. NO CHANGES TO KEY MESSAGES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A BROAD SWATH OF SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE DAKOTA STATE LINE AND
IS BARELY SCRAPING PAST OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT THIS POINT IN
TIME. THE STRONGEST FORCING HAS ALL BUT DIMINISHED IN OUR AREA,
SO REMAINING LIGHT SNOW SHOULD GENERALLY BE A FEW TENTHS TO AN
INCH. IMPACTS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AS NO WIND IS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS. SNOW SHOULD COME TO AN END AS A 1036MB SURFACE HIGH
PROPAGATES TOWARDS US. MOISTURE CONTENT AND FORCING WILL
DIMINISH, WITH COLD TEMPERATURES BEING LEFT IN ITS WAKE THIS
EVENING WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WELL BELOW ZERO AND APPROACHING -20
WHERE MORE SNOWPACK EXISTS. LIGHT WINDS WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD
WIND CHILL IMPACTS, HOWEVER -30 WIND CHILLS COULD ARISE IN THE
NORTH IF ENOUGH WIND ARISES AND TEMPERATURES FALL LOW ENOUGH.
GIVEN THESE QUESTIONS, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS NOT ISSUED
TONIGHT BUT MAY BE NECESSARY IF IMPACTS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
THE 500MB JET MAX BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING HEIGHT RISES TO OCCUR AND
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE UP INTO THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE REGION
WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURES LARGELY BEING DEPENDENT ON
SNOWPACK STATUS, WHICH IS LIKELY TO CHANGE THROUGH EACH DAY. AS
SUCH, PREDICTABILITY FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IS LOW, BUT YOU CAN
GENERALLY EXPECT AT LEAST ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT SOME
POINT NEXT WEEK.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, THERE ARE SIGNALS OF A BREAKDOWN
OF THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE PROVIDING OUR WARM TEMPERATURES. THIS
WOULD INCREASE OUR CHANCES FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD, HOWEVER THE
EVOLUTION OF THIS RIDGE BREAKDOWN WILL DRIVE OUR IMPACTS, OF
WHICH PREDICTABILITY IS LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF STRATUS THIS AFTERNOON. KGFK,
KTVF, KFAR, AND KBJI ARE ALL SEEING VFR CEILINGS, WITH KDVL
SHOWING MVFR STRATUS. FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO COINCIDE WITH
STRATUS COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER, WITH LLWS EXPECTED AFTER ROUGHLY
08Z FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WIND GUSTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
SHOULD RANGE FROM 20-25 KNOTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/DJR
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...LYNCH
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