315
FXUS63 KFGF 122357
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. TODAYS
THREAT WILL MAINLY BE IN NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN OUR FAR
EASTERN ZONES WITH PRIMARILY HAIL AND TORNADOES AS A THREAT.
THE THREAT AREA SHIFTS SOUTH TOMORROW, MAINLY ENCOMPASSING
WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
WEEK, INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN OF WINTER WEATHER.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS LATE THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A VERY HIGH
WAVE NUMBER ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS AFTERNOON, MULTIPLE SHORT AND
LONGWAVE TROUGHS/VORT MAXES EXIST ACROSS THE UNITED STATES,
INCLUDING ONE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS RIGHT NOW,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS LOOKS
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS BRIEF BREAKS IN CYCLONIC
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY ANOTHER REGION
OF SYNOPTIC ASCENT, MEANING WE WILL GET FREQUENT SHOTS AT
PRECIPITATION. MEAN TEMPERATURES/THICKNESSES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH,
SO PRIMARILY RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS CHANGES
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE COMES THROUGH AND
PUSHES TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO WHERE SNOW ARISES AS A
PRECIPITATION TYPE ONCE AGAIN. ENSEMBLE SIGNALS DO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS FROM ACCUMULATING SNOW,
GENERALLY AT AROUND A 30% PROBABILITY.
..SEVERE STORMS TODAY
THIS AFTERNOON, A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED AROUND
DETROIT LAKES AND IS CURRENTLY SLOWLY PROPAGATING EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD. A TONGUE OF 56-60 DEGREE DEWPOINTS EXISTS ALONG
IT AND STRETCHING SOUTHEASTWARD. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FAIRLY
LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND DRIER AIR IS LOOKING TO PINCH OFF
THIS TONGUE OF MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVING SAID
THAT, ATTACHED TO THE SURFACE LOW IS A WARM FRONT WHERE SOME
WEAK VEERING ALOFT EXISTS. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON, THIS WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE
NORTH TO NORTHEAST AS THE LOW PROPAGATES WITH IT. ALONG THIS
WARM FRONT, SOME CAMS ATTEMPT TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION ALONG
IT THANKS TO VERY GOOD LAPSE RATES AND FLOW ALOFT. HAVING SAID
THAT, THE BULK OF INITIATION LOCATIONS ARE RIGHT ON OUR CWA
BORDER INTO DLHS AREA, WHICH APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO AT THIS POINT AS DRY AIR LOOKS LIKE IT MAY CUT OFF THE
MAIN MOISTURE SOURCE IN OUR AREA. STILL, THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS IF INITIATION OCCURS PRIOR TO CUTOFF. WITH
THE VEERING AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, SUPERCELLS ARE A HAZARD
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE DAMAGING HAIL AND TORNADOES. THE
THREAT WILL BE OVER WITH GENERALLY AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT.
..SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW
WHILE THE BULK OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS SOUTH OF OUR
AREA, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL ONCE MORE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING, LARGELY SCOURING AWAY THE
MAJORITY OF INSTABILITY. THE EXPECTATION FOR TOMORROW IS
RECOVERY IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, INTENSIFYING A SURFACE WARM
FRONT SOMEWHERE IN THAT AREA. NORTH OF THIS WARM FRONT, ELEVATED
INSTABILITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW, BRINGING
WITH IT AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL. WHILE THE SURFACE PATTERN MOSTLY FAVORS SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON WELL SOUTH, ANY VARIATIONS
IN THE LOCATION OF THE WARM FRONT WILL DRIVE WHERE IMPACTS WILL
BE FELT. AS SUCH, IT IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS LIKE GRANT COUNTY TO
HAVE AN INCREASING TORNADO THREAT IF AND ONLY IF THE WARM FRONT
IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH THAN GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SHOWS. THE MOST
LIKELY OUTCOME, HOWEVER, IS FOR PRIMARILY A DAMAGING HAIL THREAT
FROM ELEVATED STORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
IFR STRATUS ALREADY MOVING DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN TAF SITES,
WITH ONLY KFAR AT VFR AND KBJI AT MVFR. SOME LOWER VISIBILITY
SUCH AS THE 1SM IN KTVF IS IN POCKETS UNDER THE STRATUS, BUT
NOT VERY WIDESPREAD FROM OBSERVATIONS OR WEB CAMS. ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF A MILE ARE
LESS HIGH IN MOST AREAS THAN THEY WERE LAST EVENING, AND
GENERALLY THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR
FOG. FOR NOW KEPT VIS MOSTLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY, OTHER THAN
KTVF'S CURRENT CONDITIONS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE IFR FOR A PERIOD
OVERNIGHT, THEN START TO RECOVER BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD, AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...JR
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