070
FXUS63 KFGF 190429
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1129 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.25 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED THOUGH A FEW COLD AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN CLOUDS
REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH THESE CLEARING SLOWLY AS THE
LOW LEVELS DE-SATURATE WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH
OF LAKE WINNIPEG. TEMPS SLOWLY DROPPING AS EXPECTED WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
A COUPLE THINGS TO NOTE THAT DIFFER FROM THE FORECAST BELOW.
ADDED SOME SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME
SCATTERED RAIN DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS EXPECTED TO WANE BY 8-9PM
FOR MOST AREAS. GUSTS DROPPING BY 8PM BUT COULD STILL GUST OVER
20MPH THROUGH 11PM. SPEAKING OF WINDS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIND HEADLINES ON MONDAY SHOULD THINGS TREND TOWARDS NBM PEAK
GUSTS WITH A WIND ADVISORY NOT IMPOSSIBLE BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
MORE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FIRST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
..SYNOPSIS
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SUNDAY WILL CLEAR OUT SKIES. THEREAFTER, A
STOUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. COOLER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ADVECT INTO THE FA FOR MIDWEEK, DROPPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD SPLIT FLOW/RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S, UNDER DRIER CONDITIONS.
..RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND MAYBE
EVEN A FEW SNOWFLAKES TO THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK.
TRANSIENT FRONTOGENESIS, ALONG WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT,
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO COME IN TWO WAVES. THE FIRST WAVE PUSHES THROUGH ON
MONDAY, DRIVEN BY THE WAA REGIME PROPAGATING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA. THE SYSTEMS DRY SLOT SHOULD STOP
RAINFALL MONDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE FA, BEFORE WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AS COLDER AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AND THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS, A FEW NOVELTY SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE
STRONGEST FORCING AND WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A LONGER
RESIDENCE TIME. PROBABILITIES HERE OF 0.25 OR MORE OF
PRECIPITATION IS 50%. IF THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH,
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL TICK
UPWARDS, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTALS FOR LOCATIONS
FURTHER SOUTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VFR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY WINDS TURNING
SOUTHERLY LATER IN THE PERIOD 21Z-00Z IN THE WEST AND AFTER 00Z
IN THE EAST FOR KBJI. WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING OVER 15KTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BKN DECK AROUND 10000FT NEAR SUNSET
TOMORROW AS WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN.
OVERALL A LOW IMPACT DAY TO AVIATION BUT NOT QUITE PERFECT
FLYING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...TT
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