675
FXUS63 KFGF 270431
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1131 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRYING FUELS MAY INTERMITTENTLY SUPPORT LOW END FIRE DANGER
THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MAY BRING THE POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTS
NEXT WEEK, BUT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..SYNOPSIS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
CURRENTLY WILL DIG INTO NORTHERN MN TONIGHT. THE MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW, BUT PROBABILITIES OF
ANYTHING MEASURABLE ARE 20 PERCENT OR LESS. COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BUT THEN HEIGHTS START TO RISE OVER THE WEEKEND. EXACTLY
HOW WARM OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL GET IS IN QUESTION WITH THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO PUSH BACK SOUTH AS EARLY AS SATURDAY.
STILL, WILL BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE AT LEAST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
AND WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS FIRE WEATHER COULD BE
AN ISSUE. FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. VARIATIONS BETWEEN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE DETAILS, WITH A
QUARTER OF THE CLUSTERS SHOWING HIGHER HEIGHTS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
AND A MORE NORTHERLY STORM TRACK. EVEN WITH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
IMPACTS, THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW AT LEAST A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AT VARIOUS TIMES DURING THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD, SO THE PATTERN DOES SEEM TO BE
TAKING A MORE ACTIVE TURN.
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND
WITH MOST OF THE SNOW GONE EXCEPT ACROSS PARTS OF OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES, FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT INTO THIS
WEEKEND. WARM AIR PUSHES BACK UP FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING IN THE COLD
FRONT COMING BACK DOWN A BIT FASTER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PORTIONS
OF WEST CENTRAL MN LOOK TO BE STILL AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, AND WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND DEW
POINTS IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S, AFTERNOON RH VALUES SHOULD
DROP TO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS WILL BE BORDERLINE BUT
SOME SPEEDS OVER 20 MPH ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AREA OF LOWEST RH ISN'T EXACTLY LINING UP WITH THE HIGHEST
WINDS AT THIS POINT, AND OUR CHANCES OF GETTING BELOW 25 PERCENT
RH ARE ONLY AROUND 20 PERCENT IN A FEW SPOTS. COULD GET CLOSE
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH FOR A WATCH AT THIS POINT. WINDS ON SUNDAY DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS SATURDAY, BUT COULD STILL SEE A FEW LOCATIONS DROP TO
NEAR 25 PERCENT RH IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN, WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVING OVER NORTH CENTRAL ND
TOWARDS KDVL. MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD EASTERN ND
AND NORTHWEST MN DURING THE FIRST 6HR OF THE TAF PERIOD WEST TO
TO EAST, WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AS DAYTIME MIXING AND DRIER
AIR ARRIVE 12-18Z. THERE ARE ALSO POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW EARLY IN
THE TAF PERIOD NEAR KDVL WITH MVFR VIS AT TIMES THAT WILL TEND
TO BREAK UP AS IT MOVES EAST. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR A FEW
FLURRIES/VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST 6HR OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT OTHER TAF SITES, BUT CHANCES ARE TOO LOW FOR
TAF INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST FRIDAY GUSTING
ONCE AGAIN IN THE 20-30KT RANGE DURING PEAK DAYTIME MIXING,
DECREASING BELOW 12KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE BUILDING
EAST. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN EVENTUAL SHIFT IN WINDS SPEEDS
TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR
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