747
FXUS63 KFGF 200448
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1148 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY IN
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IF GUSTY WINDS ALIGN WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN BRINGS RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE REGION THURSDAY AND RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
..SYNOPSIS
HEIGHTS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING BEGINS TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS OUR
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEK AND NEAR DAILY POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AS DRY AIR LINGERS THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR TODAY, EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS BENEATH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS. AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN ONCE AGAIN WITH MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK SHOULD PEAK INTO THE 70S AND 80S,
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FELT IN THE FAR SOUTH. AS RIDGING
MOVES AWAY, SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE UNITED
STATES, BRINGING A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND EVENTUALLY SNOW
AS MEAN TEMPERATURES FALL TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. SOME INSTABILITY
DOES ADVECT INTO THE REGION AND WITH A STEEP SURFACE FLOW
PROPAGATING OVER US, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY SEASON
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY, BUT PREDICTABILITY IS
LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN CONCERNS WITH SURFACE-BASED VERSUS
ELEVATED CONVECTION, WHICH WILL LARGELY DRIVE HAZARDS.
..FIRE WEATHER
LARGE SCALE WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK COMBINED WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN ARE EXPECTED TO CREATE NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK.
FOR TOMORROW, SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 20-30 MPH, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS A STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET PROPAGATES EAST. MOISTURE RETURN FROM SOUTHERLY
WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S, ALLOWING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
APPROACH 20% BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAXIMA OF THE JET IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA WHEN PEAK MIXING WILL
OCCUR, SO THE EXPECTATION IS FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS (LOW RH AND
HIGH WIND GUSTS) TO MAINLY REMAIN IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. HAVING
SAID THAT, CRITICAL CONDITIONS COULD SPREAD WESTWARD INTO
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA IF WINDS ALIGN WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
AT A MINIMUM, EXPECT NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. TOWARDS THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, A
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES UP TO 30-50%
BRIEFLY, BUT A SUBSTANTIAL WIND SHIFT OF 90-150 DEGREES IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS, SO FIRE CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AND RIDGING
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ERC MAXIMUMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO RISE WITH HRB VALUES INDICATING ONGOING DEAD FUELS.
THESE COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THE WEEK
LENDS TO EXPECTATIONS THAT AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVERY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL
TO PUSH INTO CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON DAYS WITH GUSTIER WINDS. AT
THIS TIME, THE GREATEST PROBABILITY TIMEFRAME FOR THAT IS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE NBM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES APPEAR FAIRLY
HIGH (25-30%), THIS IS MAINLY DUE TO LIMITED CAM IMPACT ON NBM
OUTPUT AND WILL LIKELY FALL TOWARDS MORE CRITICAL CRITERIA AS WE
GET CLOSER TO MID-WEEK. THE HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
EVENTUALLY END AS A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SYSTEM PUSHES INTO
THE REGION LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS SET OF TAFS. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECASTED TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL EXCEED 30 KNOTS AT
KGFK, KFAR AND KTVF FOR A PERIOD MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. AT KDVL, LLWS OVERNIGHT WILL BE REPLACED WITH A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE MORNING, BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF
GUSTS REACH 30 KNOTS. IF THEY DO, IT WILL BE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD,
AND THEREFORE WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF. WINDS WILL TAKE LONGEST
TO REACH KBJI, AND SHOULD NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG, GUSTING INTO
THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EVENTUALLY, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTH LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page