708
FXUS63 KFGF 121455
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
955 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GREATLY ERODE EXISTING SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT AND
POTENTIAL FOR UPCOMING PRECIPITATION BRINGS A MEDIUM CHANCE
FOR MINOR RIVERINE FLOODING.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TODAY LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINTER IMPACTS NEXT FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. BASED ON
DRIER AIR MOVING IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, THE EXPECTATION IS THE EXPECTATION THAT
EVENTUALLY WE SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENTS, HOWEVER CURRENT TRENDS
INDICATE THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
AS SUCH, THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED AND EXTENDED
THROUGH NOON.
MARGINALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY AND WITH MUCAPE BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG, SMALL HAIL
MAY ARISE LATE THIS MORNING IN THE SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY. THIS
SHOULD REMAIN THE MAIN HAZARD ALONGSIDE LIGHTNING AS STORMS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS MORNING ALONG A
WARM FRONT. VISIBILITY OBSERVATIONS RANGE FROM 1/4 MILE TO 1
MILE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO
COVER AREAS OF FOG THROUGH 10AM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
WORST VISIBILITY FROM OBS AND WEB CAMS STILL MOSTLY IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN DOWN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AND THE RED RIVER
VALLEY NEAR THE SD BORDER. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS INTO MN, MORE DRIZZLE/RAIN
AS SEEN ON WEB CAMS, AND VIS HAS BEEN MOSTLY ABOVE 2 MILES. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IT IS FOR NOW, AND
WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE LOW LEVEL LIFT BRINGING THE
DRIZZLE MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT.
FURTHER OUT, NOT TOO MANY CHANGES TO WHAT WE HAVE GOING. STILL
LOOKING LIKE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TOMORROW, AND SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. NBM ENSEMBLE HAS
BACKED OFF A BIT FROM DAY SHIFT RUN ON WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR
FRIDAY. PROBABILITIES FOR ANYTHING OVER AN INCH ARE AROUND 20
PERCENT AND WARNING LEVEL SNOW PROBS LOOK MINIMAL. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL A CLUSTER OF AROUND 17 PERCENT OF THE ENSEMBLE
THAT HAS A DEEPER TROUGH AND CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT WINTER
IMPACTS QUITE YET. WILL KEEP THE KEY MESSAGE WE HAVE GOING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS VIEWABLE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL DEEPEN INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL TIER OF THE CONUS. THIS IS HELPING DRAW UP HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT FROM THE SOUTH, WHILE ALSO INCREASING SYNOPTIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT, ESPECIALLY WITH ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST THIS
EVENING AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INCREASED FORCING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR AREA
SUNDAY HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD, WITH MOST FORCING FOR ASCENT TO
OVERCOMING LIKELY CAPPING DISPLACED FROM OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
THIS BEGINS A RELATIVELY LENGTHY PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY/QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, PROMOTING A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER
REGIME, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW
EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EVOLVE. THIS INCLUDES POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS. MORE
DETAILS ON THIS CAN BE FOUND BELOW.
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGHING AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE OVER OUR AREA BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS HIGH AS THE 60S AND
70S. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
LATER THIS WEEK, WHILE STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LENGTHY WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
UPCOMING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CHANCE FOR
MINOR RIVERINE FLOODING FOR A FEW TRIBUTARIES IN MINNESOTA. MORE
DETAILS ON THIS BELOW.
..UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO AGREE IN THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINING IN
THIS SOUTHWESTERLY AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, THERE
ARE A FEW PERIODS OF NOTE THAT INCREASE OUR RELATIVE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THESE PERIODS ARE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, TUESDAY,
AND LATE NEXT WORK WEEK.
FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY, THERE IS A NOTEWORTHY AMOUNT OF WARM AIR IN
THE MID LAYERS EFFECTIVELY CAPPING MUCH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, STRONGEST LOW/MID
LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT TO POTENTIALLY OVERCOME CAPPING WILL
REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. THUS,
EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER FORCED BY VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE HEART OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ITSELF.
THERE IS STILL EXPECTATION OF SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO
BRING THEIR OWN WAVES OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THEIR WARM SECTORS,
BUT STILL MORE LIKELY TO BE LARGELY DISPLACED FROM OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, CONVECTION FED BY THIS WARM SECTOR MAY BE WITHIN OUR
AREA, INTRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST.
MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST WITHIN EASTERN MN INTO WI. STILL, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR 1-2 INCHES WITHIN MINNESOTA AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF
US HIGHWAY 2 BY END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE MAY FEATURE COLD ENOUGH
AIR FOR SOME OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW, OF WHICH MAY BE
ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE. AS WE INCH CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO CLUSTER TOWARD A SCENARIO THAT FEATURES
HEAVY SNOW IN THE EVENTUAL SYSTEM'S DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS COULD
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW
MORE THAN 6 INCHES. THIS MAY ALSO COINCIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO
INTRODUCE IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW INTO THIS SCENARIO.
WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES AND BLOWING SNOW, DETAILS
ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING REMAIN VERY MUCH UNKNOWN. THIS KEEPS
CHANCE FOR WARNING IMPACTS AROUND 10%, WITH CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
IMPACTS AROUND 30% AT THIS TIME.
...WARM TEMPERATURES AND ERODING SNOWPACK BRINGS CHANCE FOR
RIVERINE FLOODING...
DUE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, CONFIDENCE FOR A GREATLY ERODING
SNOWPACK IS HIGH. THERE REMAINS WIDESPREAD FROZEN AND/OR
SATURATED SOILS, WITH SEVERAL AREAS STILL SEEING STANDING WATER
IN OPEN FIELDS (AS SEEN FROM WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY).
THIS LENDS CONFIDENCE THAT EXISTING WATER CONTENT WITHIN THE
SNOWPACK WILL LARGELY RUNOFF INTO RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES.
THE CURRENT WATER CONTENT WITHIN THE SNOWPACK ISN'T OVERLY
HIGH (UP TO 1.2 INCHES), AND ALONE WILL LIKELY NOT PUSH
RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES INTO FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF
THIS OCCURING WITH UPCOMING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION INTRODUCE A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MINOR RIVERINE
FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, PHASING OF SNOWMELT-DRIVEN INCREASED
FLOW WITHIN TRIBUTARIES AND MAIN STEM RED RIVER MAY PHASE WITH
EACH OTHER IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THESE REASONS, ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, WITH ALL TAF SITES SEEING LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY,
MIST, AND FOG. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND 15Z, HOWEVER, IMPROVEMENT WILL BE QUITE SLOW AS MOISTURE
AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE IN RESPONSE TO A WARM FRONT.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST STARTING JUST
AFTER SUNRISE, WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH A SLOW SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BY LATE THIS
EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-
022>024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...LYNCH/PERROUX/JR
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...LYNCH
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