641  
FXUS63 KFGF 261139  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
639 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023  
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023  
 
A SMALL POCKET OF DENSE FOG FINALLY FORMED ALONG OUR FAR NORTHWEST  
CWA BORDER (WESTERN BENSON COUNTY), BUT OTHER THAN THIS OUR CWA  
HAS REMAINED CLEAR WITH NO OTHER VIS REDUCTIONS. HRRR/NBM  
INDICATE THIS FOG WILL MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST, BUT REMAIN  
PROGRESSIVE/LOCALIZED IN IMPACTS BEFORE BURNING OFF WITH DAYTIME  
HEATING. I WON'T READ TOO MUCH INTO MODEL SPECIFICS AS THIS HASN'T  
BEEN HANDLED WELL, BUT CONSIDERING THE LOCALIZED NATURE/LIMITED  
IMPACTS AN ADVISORY PROBABLY WON'T BE NEEDED IF THAT IS HOW THIS  
PLAYS OUT.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM  
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023  
 
-PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, MAINLY OVER THE DEVILS LAKE  
BASIN.  
 
-LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY, THOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR  
ACCUMULATIONS AND MINOR WINTER TRAVEL IMPACTS IS LOW.  
 
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A HUDSON  
BAY LOW CONTINUES TO BUILD AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24HR. AT THE  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR WEST, WITH LOW  
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS HAVE  
RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND ZERO (SOME COLDER SPOTS  
BRIEFLY HITTING -10 EARLIER THIS MORNING). WARMER TEMPERATURES IN  
THE TEENS ABOVE HAVE REMAINED IN THE FORESTED AREAS OF MN CLOSER TO  
LOW PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS.  
GUIDANCE HAS STRUGGLED WITH LOCATION/COVERAGE OF STRATUS/FOG  
FORMATION OFTEN OVERDOING COVERAGE. STILL, CLOSER TO THE SURFACE  
HIGH WE ARE SEEING SOME FOG FORMATION (JUST WEST OF OUR CWA) AND  
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING EAST INTO OUR  
WESTERN CWA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DENSE POCKETS CAN'T BE RULED  
OUT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON COVERAGE/DURATION.  
 
REST OF TODAY-MONDAY: CONSIDERING TRENDS IN GUIDANCE TO OVERESTIMATE  
LOW CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS, WE MAY REMAIN CLEAR IN  
MOST AREAS UNTIL MID-HIGH CLOUDS ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. THIS MAY  
ALLOW US TO RUN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN BASE NBM, THOUGH THIS  
STILL WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 20S FOR MOST THIS AFTERNOON  
(ABOVE FREEZING IN THE FORESTED AREAS OF MN). A WEAK MID LEVEL  
IMPULSE MOVES OVER THE REGION WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT MONDAY. WEAK PVA  
AND A COLD FRONT MOVE OVER THE REGION, AND THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR  
LIGHT QPF BETWEEN VARIOUS MODELS. THIS IS LESS CONSISTENT FROM AN  
ENSEMBLE STAND-POINT (NBM PROBS FOR EVEN A DUSTING ARE LESS THAN  
10%), THOUGH CAMS AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME AREAS OF  
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW. ULTIMATELY THIS MAY JUST FAVOR FLURRIES AS  
DRIER NORTHEAST BL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE LOCALLY. EVEN IF  
ACCUMULATING SNOW WERE TO OCCUR IMPACTS WOULD BE MINIMAL (ENSEMBLE  
PROBS FOR 1" ARE LESS THAN 10% DURING THE DAY MONDAY).  
   
LONG TERM  
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023  
 
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT ANOTHER FEW SYSTEMS COULD POSSIBLY  
BE IN THE FORECAST, THE LONG TERM IS CURRENTLY LOW IMPACT AND HAS  
POTENTIAL TO STAY THAT WAY.  
 
STARTING THE WORK WEEK, THERES A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN  
THE SOUTHERN VALLEY, HOWEVER, ACCUMULATIONS OVER A TENTH OF AN INCH  
ARE UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME (LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE).  
ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE ON TUESDAY, BUT  
AGAIN, CHANCES OF GREATER THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION IN  
24 HOURS REMAIN LOW (LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 20%). THESE ARE WEAK  
LITTLE IMPULSES THAT ARE TRANSIENT AND DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ORGANIZED  
ENOUGH TO DROP MORE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
DURING THIS TIME, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE  
END OF MARCH. HIGHS WILL RISE FROM THE LOW TEENS TO THE UPPER TEENS  
AND 20S INTO MID-WEEK, BUT THIS ARCTIC HIGH SEEMS TO HAVE A STRONG  
HOLD ON THE REGION AND A GOOD INFLUENCE OVER OUR TEMPERATURES.  
 
THAT INFLUENCE WON'T LAST LONG HOWEVER, AS THE HIGH PUSHES TO OUR  
EAST AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A STRONGER SYSTEM ENTERS THE PICTURE.  
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY SPLIT RIGHT NOW ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR  
PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA, WITH SOME HAVING US RECEIVE THE BRUNT OF  
THE PRECIPITATION AND THE OTHERS SAYING NOT SO MUCH. RIGHT NOW, NBM  
PROBS ARE 10-30% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 2 INCHES, WITH GREATER  
THAN 4 INCHES DROPPING TO LESS THAN 20%. WITH THE HIGH DEGREE OF  
UNCERTAINTY, WE CANNOT SAY ANYTHING FOR CERTAIN, BUT THE END OF  
NEXT WEEK BEARS WATCHING.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S THROUGH THE END OF  
THE WEEK, SO WE JUST HAVE TO KEEP HOPING THAT MAYBE APRIL WILL BE  
WARMER OR AT LEAST CLOSER TO NORMAL.  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN MAR 26 2023  
 
PATCHY FOG (VLIFR POSSIBLE) IS MOVING TOWARDS KDVL EARLY THIS  
MORNING, AND THERE SHOULD BE A PERIOD OF AT LEAST TEMPORARY  
IMPACTS BEFORE THIS BURNS OFF. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY INCONSISTENT  
ON OTHER PARTS OF EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN, SO I DON'T WANT TO  
COMPLETELY RULE OUT BRIEF GROUND FOG FORMATION DURING THE 12-15Z  
PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AFTER ANY FOG LIFTS THIS  
MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING (ONLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING WEST  
TO EAST). PREVAILING WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT (LESS THAN 12KT)  
THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT ARRIVES  
AND NORTHERLY WINDS 10-12KT DEVELOP ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL MVFR  
STRATUS.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...DJR  
SHORT TERM...DJR  
LONG TERM...AK  
AVIATION...DJR  
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