548
FXUS63 KFGF 101159
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SECOND PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER INTO PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH UP TO 1 INCH OF NEW SNOW.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW AND HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS LIKE MAGNITUDE AND
LOCATION.
- UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN WHERE ACCUMULATING SNOW FALLS THIS
WEEKEND BUT CHANCES FOR AREA IMPACTS ARE WORTH MONITORING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
MAIN SNOW ENDED AROUND 5 AM IN FAR SE ND AND WC MN ADVISORY
AREA. 3-5 INCHES OF SNOW FELL FROM THE WAHPETON AREA THRU FERGUS
FALLS TO WADENA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
RADAR SHOWED CONTINUED BANDING AND HIGH RADAR RETURNS FROM EAST
OF FORMAN TO LIDGERWOOD TO WAHPETON TO NEAR FERGUS FALLS. 3
INCHES FROM SEVERAL REPORTS IN WAHPETON AND FELT LIKE ADDITIONA
1-2 INCHES IS POSSILE IN A FEW AREAS BRINGING POTENTIAL SNOWFALL
TOTALS 4-5 INCHES...OUTSIDE CHANCE OF 6. FELT IT WAS HIGH ENOUGH
CHANCE TO GET OVER 4 INCHES IN A NARROW ZONE SO ISSUED WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR THIS FOR FAR SE ND INTO A PART OF WC MN THRU 12Z
TUE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
NO CHANGES IN MESSAGING BUT AS THINGS SEEM TO BE GOING AS
EXPECTED WITH HEAVY BUT TRANSIENT BANDED SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD MOVE
AWAY FROM I-94 AFTER 4AM AND OUT OF THE AREA ENTIRELY BY 7AM.
VISIBILITY IS CURRENTLY THE WORST IT HAS BEEN WITH MUCH OF
WILKIN AND WESTERN OTTERTAIL REPORTING AS LOW AS 1/4SM BUT WITH
WIND ONLY GUSTING UP TO 20MPH BLSN IS NOT REALLY OCCURING AND
THUS VIS QUICKLY IMPROVES ONCE BANDING MOVES INTO A DIFFERENT
LOCATION. PROBABLY ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE EVENT NOW SO MOST
AREAS SEEING UP TO ANOTHER INCH WITH ISOLATED ADDITIONAL TOTALS
OF AROUND 2 INCHES. THIS BRINGS EVENT TOTALS TO 1-2" AND
LOCALLY UP TO 3".
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
SNOW HAS BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA
MAINLY STAYING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I94/HWY10 CORRIDORS. SNOW
IS MAINLY STICKING ON THE GRASS SO FAR BUT SOME ACCUMULATIONS
HAVE BEEN NOTED ON THE SHOULDERS OF ROADS AND OCCASIONAL
ACCUMULATION OUTSIDE OF WHEEL TRACKS. THE MAIN IMPACT IS THE
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RATES DRIVING VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1/2SM
ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN SPS NOW IN EFFECT TO RAISE AWARENESS FOR
THIS VISIBILITY THREAT THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 153 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH OF US CENTERED AROUND SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND A LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE IOWA/NEBRASKA BORDER. SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS IS A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS CONTRIBUTING TO FALLING
SNOW. THIS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE REGION.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR CONTINUED ACTIVE
WEATHER, ALTHOUGH THE PROBABILITY FOR HIGHER TIERED IMPACTS
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. THIS IS BECAUSE OF HIGH STANDARD
DEVIATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE IN 500 MB HEIGHTS, CONTRIBUTING TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TRACKS OF STORMS. WHAT WE DO KNOW IS THAT THE
SPLIT FLOW WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS THE CUTOFF LOW OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA FINALLY EJECTS NORTHEAST, EVENTUALLY MERGING
WITH THE NORTHERN JET TO OUR EAST. THE LOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
EJECT BASED ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ANOTHER WEAK SHOT OF
SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE INTERIM TOMORROW WITH GENERALLY A FEW
TENTHS OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. LATE PERIOD SYSTEMS COULD BRING
ACTIVE PERIODS DUE TO THE STRONGLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN,
PARTICULARLY ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH WARMUPS AHEAD
OF SYSTEMS AND COOLER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE OF THEM.
..SYSTEM #1: TODAY
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AND BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS SYSTEM. STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH
FAIRLY WEAK SYNOPTIC SUPPORT, CONTRIBUTING TO UNORGANIZED
BANDING. THIS MEANS THAT HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY THANKS TO THE INSTABILITY COMING WITH IT. THE HEAVIER
BURSTS OF SNOW WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS WHICH MEANS ACCUMULATIONS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT WITH THE FAST FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS
SYSTEM. MOST WILL LIKELY SEE IN THE RANGE OF 1-2 INCHES, WITH
LOCALIZED HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 3 INCHES. THE PATHWAY OF GREATEST
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-94, HOWEVER SNOW COULD GET AS FAR NORTH AS US HIGHWAY 2 BUT
WITH LESS ACCUMULATIONS.
..SYSTEM #2: THURSDAY/FRIDAY
A RATHER COMPLEX UPPER WAVE PATTERN EXISTS OVER THE PACIFIC,
AIDING IN HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRAJECTORY OF A JET MAX
CURRENTLY CENTERED WEST OF THE ALEUTIANS OF ALASKA. ONE THING
THAT MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THE EXISTENCE OF AN INTENSE JET MAX
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY. THIS LOOKS TO TAKE
MORE OF A CLIPPER TYPE SETUP WITH LEADING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
A STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE. IMPACTS FROM THIS
SHOULD MAINLY BE TIED TO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AND HIGH WIND
POTENTIAL. THE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION THREAT WILL BE DRIVEN BY
INTENSITY OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM WARM AIR ADVECTION, WHICH IS
INTRINSICALLY RELATED TO STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND WHERE IT IS AT.
POTENTIAL HIGHER END SCENARIOS OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DO
PAINT A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR WARNING TYPE SNOWFALL, BUT MOST
GUIDANCE CONVERGES AROUND ADVISORY OR LESS TYPE IMPACTS BASED ON
CLUSTERS. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WIND AS
THE JET MAX IS RATHER INTENSE BASED ON CLUSTERS, HOWEVER THERE
IS HIGH VARIANCE IN LOCATION OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW, WHICH
DRIVES WHERE THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION IS. MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MIXING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW, IN SOME CASES UP TO 600MB, BUT THE TIMING
OF THIS WAVE GENERALLY PANS OUT TO MORE OVERNIGHT SO MIXING WILL
BE A LOT HARDER FROM DIURNAL TRENDS AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WOULD
NEED TO HELP OUT. GIVEN ALL OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES, THE
PROBABILITY FOR HIGH WINDS (SUSTAINED 40 MPH OR 58+ MPH GUSTS)
IS 10%.
..SYSTEM #3: SATURDAY/SUNDAY
FINALLY, ANOTHER SYSTEM IS HIGHLY LIKELY TO TRAVERSE THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION. ONCE AGAIN,
BECAUSE MODEL DISPERSION GREATLY INCREASES FROM SYSTEM #2, IT IS
EVEN WORSE WITH RESPECT TO SATURDAY/SUNDAY. THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST SOMETHING WILL IMPACT THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, HOWEVER TO WHAT EXTENT ARE THE IMPACTS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND CARRIES A LOW PREDICTABILITY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
MOSTLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA TODAY, SCATTERED
COVERAGE NORTH TO OVERCAST SOUTH. LIGHT WINDS TODAY, MOSTLY NNE
IN RRV AND MN AND SOUTHEAST DVL. LIGHT WINDS INTO TONIGHT AS
WELL WITH MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. ANY SNOWFALL THIS EVENING
STAYS SOUTH OF WAHPETON, FERGUS FALLS, PARK RAPIDS REGION.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE/TT
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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