686
FXUS63 KFGF 201538
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1038 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST IN EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN COMES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH OVERALL LIGHT AMOUNTS UNDER HALF AN INCH AND VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
MAIN UPDATE TO ADJUST KEY MESSAGE AWAY FROM FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AS TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY IN
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
20-30 MPH COUPLED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 30
PERCENT AND LINGERING DRY FUELS.
PATCHY SHALLOW FOG THIS MORNING HAS ALSO SINCE DIMINISHED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
WE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN SPS FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG AS
OBSERVATIONS ARE STARTING TO BECOME MORE FREQUENT, BUT WEBCAMS
STILL SHOW THE SHALLOW AND ISOLATED NATURE OF IT. WITH SUNRISE
ONGOING, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THINGS TO CLEAR OUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SOME GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HINT AT FOG POTENTIAL ALONG THE
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE VALLEY TONIGHT ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH
SOUNDINGS RANGING FROM A 3-5 DEGREE DEWPOINT SPREAD TO A FULL
ON LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND GROUND FOG. UNSURE WHETHER CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE CALM WINDS OR IF PATCHY GROUND FOG
DEVELOPS BUT EVEN WITH A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD EXPECT
ISOLATED POCKETS AS LOW AS A 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD 1-2 MILE VIS FROM FERGUS FALLS NORTH TO HALLOCK AND
CROOKSTON. WOULD SAY THAT IS ABOUT A 30% CHANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL PULL
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS CURRENTLY WILL SHIFT INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
ROCKIES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SO WESTERLY FLOW WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST SPLITS INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH, AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS VARY A BIT ON HOW EXACTLY THEY HANDLE IT AS IT MOVES
EAST. MOST SOLUTIONS DO PUSH THE TROUGH EAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. DETAILS
SUCH AS PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT WITH THE TROUGH ARE
LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT ON BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BECOMING NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
..FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST, AND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING,
AND DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 30S OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
SHOULD BE DOWN IN OUR AREA BY TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR
OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A 60 TO 90
PERCENT CHANCE OF 32 OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF EASTERN ND INTO
NORTHWESTERN MN. PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN 32 ARE MUCH LOWER
FOR SOME REASON IN WEST CENTRAL MN FROM ELBOW LAKE UP TO DETROIT
LAKES, WITH CHANCES 20 PERCENT OR LESS.KEPT GRANT, OTTER TAIL,
AND WESTERN BECKER AS FROST ADVISORY BUT HAVE THE REST OF THE
CWA IN A FREEZE WARNING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
SHALLOW FOG THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE FAIRLY QUICKLY AND WITHIN
THE NEXT 2 HOURS, GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BUT WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONCE THIS OCCURS,
WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH THE HIGHEST SPEEDS GENERALLY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA,
DECREASING AS YOU HEAD FURTHER EAST. NO OTHER AVIATION IMPACTS
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ/PERROUX/TT
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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