988
FXUS63 KFGF 222334
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE
PASSAGE OF SEVERAL SHORTWAVES. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA ON SUNDAY, WITH LOW CHANCES FOR A PASSING
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. BEST CHANCES WILL BE FURTHER WEST,
HOWEVER. A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WHEN A STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST OUT
OF MANITOBA AND INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THIS
WILL BRING US A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. MOVING INTO TUESDAY, PARTS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES. H5 RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO FLATTEN, THUS WEAKENING OUR NORTHWEST FLOW HEADING INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
RAIN CHANCES AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE SPEED AND PROGRESSION OF ANTECEDENT
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND SHIFTS IN THE OVERALL PATTERN.
..ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A MODERATELY STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES
ACROSS THE AREA. STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
PLACE DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODELED SURFACE CAPE RANGES FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
ACROSS VARIOUS ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC NAM/NAM NEST. LOW TO
MID LEVEL SHEAR IS MARGINAL, ESPECIALLY FURTHER AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. HODOGRAPHS, HOWEVER, ARE RELATIVELY STRAIGHT AND
HAVE A DEGREE OF CONSISTENCY IN MODEL SOUNDINGS. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO FORM, THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH SHEAR TO ALLOW A
MENTION OF SUPERCELLS, WITH A CHANCE FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS OR
HYBRID CLUSTERS. IN A HIGHER IMPACT SCENARIO, SUPERCELLS FORM,
BRINGING POTENTIAL HAZARDS INCLUDING WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 75
MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS. IF ATMOSPHERIC
SUPPORT SHIFTS MORE TOWARDS CLUSTERS, THE POTENTIAL HAZARDS
COULD INCLUDE WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 70 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS. ALTERNATIVELY, IN A LOWER END SCENARIO,
STORMS FORM LATER IN THE EVENING AND SEVERE STORMS BECOME LESS
LIKELY, BUT COULD STILL SUPPORT ELEVATED HAIL PRODUCING STORMS
DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS NOW AND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10
KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST AND PICK UP AGAIN AT THE ND
AIRPORTS, BUT STAY MOSTLY BELOW 12 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...JR
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