835
FXUS63 KFGF 261726
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1126 AM CST THU DEC 26 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT, BUT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS TO OUR EAST. PRECIPITATION MAY END AS A BRIEF
MIX SATURDAY.
- WEAK 500 MB TROUGH MAY GENERATE A BIT OF FREEZING RAIN OR
LIGHT RAIN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 907 AM CST THU DEC 26 2024
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA REVEAL FREEZING DRIZZLE OR A MIST IS
POTENTIALLY ONGOING. TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR BELOW FREEZING THIS
MORNING, WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING. A QUICK
GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE IN ANY AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE
RESULTING IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THUS, AND SPS WAS ISSUED
THROUGH 1PM AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SLIGHTLY AND
CLEARING FROM THE WEST PUSHES EASTWARD ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS
TO DRY OUT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 708 AM CST THU DEC 26 2024
THINGS ARE PROGRESSING AS ANTICIPATED. DID UPDATE SKY COVER FOR
THAT SHARP WEST EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS. IT HAS BEEN PRETTY STEADY
SITTING JUST WEST OF CAVALIER TO LAKOTA TO JAMESTOWN SINCE 11Z.
925 MB RH FROM HRRR/GFS/NAM STILL INDICATE CLEARING OF THAT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO JUST ABOUT THE RED RIVER 21Z TIME FRAME TODAY,
SO KEPT THAT IDEA IN THE SKY COVER GRIDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST THU DEC 26 2024
BASED ON LATEST MN DOT RWIS OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER SOURCES, DID
REMOVE ANY CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FROM THE FCST. RWIS
VSBYS 5 MILES OR GREATER IN MN, AT ALL BUT ONE SITE WHICH WAS
UNDER 2SM. SIMILARLY IN E ND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE WITH A SLOW
CLEARING PROGRESS ENE...A BIT FASTER NORTH VS SOUTH. BACKEDGE OF
CLOUDS CAVALIER-LAKOTA-JAMESTOWN ND. IN RRV CIGS UNDER 1K FT AGL
BUT VSBYS 5 MILES OR GREATER. DID ALSO REMOVE FOG AFTER EARLY
MORNING FOR MANY AREAS AS LOOKS LIKE FOG SHOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE
TODAY WITH LIGHT FOG AND VSBYS GENERALLY 5SM OR P6SM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST THU DEC 26 2024
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB HIGH OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WITH 500 MB LOW MOVING INTO
TEXAS PANHANDLE. MAIN ACTIVE JET REMAINS IN THE SOUTH WHILE A
WEAKER JET ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ENTERING CENTRAL ND THIS MORNING AND SKIES ARE CLEARING AS IT
MOVES IN. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FARTHER WEST IN CENTRAL
MONTANA AND THIS IS MOVING EAST TOO AND MAY PROVIDE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
UPPER LOW IN TEXAS MOVES EAST AND IS REPLACED BY A STRONGER 500
MB SYSTEM THAT IS NOW MOVING ONSHORE OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THIS WAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND THEN MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARD WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN WITH MAIN RAIN CHANCES
IN EASTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES AREA LATE
FRIDAY.
..FOG CHANCES.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT FOG ISNT ANYWHERE CLOSE TO BEING AS POOR
AS THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. VSBYS 4+ IN FOG MAINLY NORTH RRV. FOG
CHANCES MAY CONTINUE INTO THE AFTN IN WEST CENTRAL MN AND MAY
RE-FORM TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE MOVING TOWARD WISCONSIN. HREF SHOWS MEAN VSBYS UNDER
HALF MILE IN THE RRV THU OVERNIGHT/FRI AM BUT IT HAS ALSO BEEN A
BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE IN PAST DAYS WITH THESE VERY LOW VSBYS.
..FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
FORTUNATELY, HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE OF ANY FZDZ. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME POSITIVE VERTICAL MOTION 09Z-12Z PERIOD IN
THE NORTH VALLEY BUT MOISTURE LAYER IS JUST A TAD LESS IN
HEIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY ZL- IN NORTH
VALLEY TIL NEAR SUNRISE AS IF ANYONE WILL GET SOME IT WOULD BE
THAT AREA DUE TO BETTER VERTICAL MOTION IN MOIST LAYER.
..FRIDAY-SATURDAY PRECIPITATION CHANCES
AS MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST SPREADING RAIN INTO
PARTS OF NW/WC MN LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH TREND
KEEPING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO OUR EAST. THERE IS A 500 MB
SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL ND BY 18Z FRI AND THEN NORTHEAST THRU VALLEY FRIDAY
AFTN. RIGHT SNOW SIGNAL FOR PRECIP WITH THIS THIS SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS LOW, BUT ENOUGH TO MENTION WITH 20 ISH POPS. THUS DID
INTRODUCE A BAND OF SLIGHT CHC OF PRECIP WITH TROUGH AS IT MOVES
THRU E ND FRIDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. TEMP PROFILE SUGGEST RISK OF SOME
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN DVL BASIN THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM MERGES WITH THE ONE COMING
THRU WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BACKEDGE OF PRECIPITATION MAY
TURN FROM RAIN TO A MIX AS IT ENDS SATURDAY IN NORTH CENTRAL MN.
..NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL NEXT WEEK WILL FEATURE A COOLING PATTERN, ESP AFTER JAN
1ST, AS TEMPS RETURN TO MORE NORMAL VALUES. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST THU DEC 26 2024
LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE LIFR TO IFR WITHIN
THE STRATUS DECK. CURRENT SATELLITE HAS IT STALLED OUT JUST ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A MIST UNDERNEATH THE STRATUS DECK. LOW CHANCE FOR A
FREEZING MIST AS TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ABOVE FREEZING ALONG
WITH SURFACE TEMPS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTH
AND THE STRATUS DECK WILL PUSH BACK WESTWARD THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. FOG REDEVELOPS OVERNIGHT WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
DOWN TO A FEW MILES FOR EACH TAF LOCATION.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE/SPENDER
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...SPENDER
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