056  
FXUS63 KFGF 221134  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND  
WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA BEFORE 8 AM THIS MORNING.  
 
- WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS OF 30  
MPH GUSTING TO 40 MPH WILL RESIDE IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH  
DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
EXPANSIVE UPPER LOW CAN BE SEEN OVER CENTRAL CANADA EARLY THIS  
MORNING ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOUTHERN FLANKS OF  
THIS LOW HAS OVERSPREAD THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. AT THE SURFACE,  
THE FIRST OF MANY COLD FRONTS IS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN  
ND INTO NORTHERN MN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PATCHY DENSE FOG IS  
BEING OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST- CENTRAL MN  
(MORE ON THIS BELOW). SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND NON- SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE SD/ND BORDER TREKKING  
EASTWARD WITH THE MEAN FLOW. WITH LINGERING INSTABILITY AND  
MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN, THIS ACTIVITY  
SHOULD CONTINUE EASTWARD MOVING THROUGH THE TRI- STATE AREA OF  
SD/ND/MN THIS MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH  
THIS ACTIVITY GIVEN THE WANING INSTABILITY.  
 
UPSTREAM INTO SK, ANOTHER COLD FRONT UNDER THE SOUTHWEST FLANKS  
OF THE UPPER LOW HOUSES COLD AIR ADVECTION. LOW STRATUS CAN ALSO  
BE SEEN WITHIN THIS REGIME, ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONS OF RAIN  
SHOWERS. THIS CAN BE EXTRAPOLATED SOUTHEASTWARD LENDING  
CREDENCE IN SOME CAM GUIDANCE'S ILLUSTRATION OF SCATTERED  
SHOWERS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING  
DEEPER INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOME  
WEAK INSTABILITY NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AMID  
SUFFICIENTLY DEEP SATURATION AMID COLD AIR ADVECTION FURTHER  
LENDS CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO.  
 
AS THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION, WINDY  
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THIS INCLUDES ADVISORY-  
CRITERIA WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN  
(MORE ON THIS BELOW).  
 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRONGLY SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW  
SLOWLY MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA, BRINGING ONLY  
TO EASTERN ON BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE-  
WHISKING CONTINENTAL AIR MASS INTRUSIONS FROM INTERIOR CANADA  
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, SUPPORTING BELOW  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS  
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.  
 
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THEN STARTS TO SUGGEST THIS LOW LOOSES ITS  
INFLUENCE OVER OUR REGION BY MID WEEK, WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER  
THE INTERIOR WEST AND WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WOULD SUPPORT RETURN TO  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. WITH  
MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHISKED WELL AWAY FROM THE  
REGION, DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED UNTIL  
A MULTI-DAY PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW CAN RETURN MOISTURE BACK  
NORTH. IT ISN'T UNTIL MAY LATE NEXT WEEK WHERE THIS SCENARIO MAY  
OCCUR.  
 
   
..FOG THIS MORNING
 
 
SEVERAL OBSERVATION STATIONS AND WEBCAMS SHOW DENSE FOG IS  
DANCING AROUND WITHIN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MN,  
PARTICULARLY WITHIN HILLY LAKES COUNTRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO  
BE THE CASE UNTIL A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH  
THE AREA WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST INTRODUCING DRIER  
AIR. BY 8 AM, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE WORKED ITS WAY THROUGH,  
CEASING POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.  
   
..WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
 
 
EFFICIENT MIXING OF WINDS ALOFT IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DAYTIME  
MIXING PHASING WELL WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING THROUGH THE  
REGION BEHIND THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT. WHILE GUSTS MAY NOT BE  
OVERLY STRONG (MORE ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 MPH), SUSTAINED WINDS  
AROUND 30 MPH ARE FORECAST IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND (MAINLY  
NORTH OF I-94) INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LIKE THE RED  
RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, THERE MAY BE A "VALLEY-  
SKIP" TENDENCY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY  
WHERE WINDS ARE LESS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE  
VALLEY.  
 
GIVEN TREES STILL FULLY-LEAFED, AND SOME TREE BRANCHES WEAKENED  
FROM SEVERAL SEVERE WIND EVENTS THIS SUMMER, ONE CAN ANTICIPATE  
SOME SMALL TREE BRANCHES BEING DOWNED THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO  
MINOR WIND IMPACTS IN AREAS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE WIND ADVISORY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2025  
 
IMPACTS TO AVIATION THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY INCLUDE WINDY  
CONDITIONS EXCEEDING 25KT AND POTENTIAL FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS  
TONIGHT.  
 
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY BRINGING ELEVATED  
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 20-26KT RANGE, GUSTING 25-32KT. HIGHEST  
WINDS ARE FORECAST BETWEEN 18Z-01Z, AS WELL AS WITHIN PORTIONS  
OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.  
 
LOWERING CEILINGS INTO THE MVFR AND IFR RANGE ARE FORECAST INTO  
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT AFTER  
08Z. KBJI HOLDS GREATEST CHANCE (60%) OF SEEING THESE CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-054.  
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS  
EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CJ  
AVIATION...CJ  
 
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