070  
FXUS63 KFGF 190429  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1129 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- THERE IS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.25 INCH OF RAIN ALONG AND  
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.  
 

 
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
SHOWERS HAVE ENDED THOUGH A FEW COLD AIR ADVECTION DRIVEN CLOUDS  
REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH THESE CLEARING SLOWLY AS THE  
LOW LEVELS DE-SATURATE WITH THE INFLUX OF DRIER AIR ON THE  
BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH  
OF LAKE WINNIPEG. TEMPS SLOWLY DROPPING AS EXPECTED WITH  
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
A COUPLE THINGS TO NOTE THAT DIFFER FROM THE FORECAST BELOW.  
ADDED SOME SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS  
COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS BEEN STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE SOME  
SCATTERED RAIN DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS EXPECTED TO WANE BY 8-9PM  
FOR MOST AREAS. GUSTS DROPPING BY 8PM BUT COULD STILL GUST OVER  
20MPH THROUGH 11PM. SPEAKING OF WINDS SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR  
WIND HEADLINES ON MONDAY SHOULD THINGS TREND TOWARDS NBM PEAK  
GUSTS WITH A WIND ADVISORY NOT IMPOSSIBLE BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE  
MORE SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FIRST.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SUNDAY WILL CLEAR OUT SKIES. THEREAFTER, A  
STOUT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION SUNDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS, WITH THE  
HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. COOLER AIR ON THE BACKSIDE  
OF THE SYSTEM WILL ADVECT INTO THE FA FOR MIDWEEK, DROPPING HIGH  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S. TOWARDS THE END OF THE  
PERIOD SPLIT FLOW/RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS,  
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID  
60S, UNDER DRIER CONDITIONS.  
   
..RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
 
 
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN  
PRAIRIES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING RAIN AND MAYBE  
EVEN A FEW SNOWFLAKES TO THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK.  
TRANSIENT FRONTOGENESIS, ALONG WITH THE BEST SYNOPTIC SUPPORT,  
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PRECIPITATION  
LOOKS TO COME IN TWO WAVES. THE FIRST WAVE PUSHES THROUGH ON  
MONDAY, DRIVEN BY THE WAA REGIME PROPAGATING FROM SOUTHWEST TO  
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FA. THE SYSTEMS DRY SLOT SHOULD STOP  
RAINFALL MONDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE FA, BEFORE WRAP AROUND  
SHOWERS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW SLIDE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT  
INTO TUESDAY. AS COLDER AIR IS ADVECTED SOUTHWARD AND THE  
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN COOLS, A FEW NOVELTY SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST  
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL BE IN THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE  
STRONGEST FORCING AND WHERE PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE A LONGER  
RESIDENCE TIME. PROBABILITIES HERE OF 0.25 OR MORE OF  
PRECIPITATION IS 50%. IF THE LOW TRACKS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH,  
PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL TICK  
UPWARDS, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TOTALS FOR LOCATIONS  
FURTHER SOUTH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
VFR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WESTERLY WINDS TURNING  
SOUTHERLY LATER IN THE PERIOD 21Z-00Z IN THE WEST AND AFTER 00Z  
IN THE EAST FOR KBJI. WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING OVER 15KTS  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BKN DECK AROUND 10000FT NEAR SUNSET  
TOMORROW AS WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES IN.  
OVERALL A LOW IMPACT DAY TO AVIATION BUT NOT QUITE PERFECT  
FLYING.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...TT  
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY  
AVIATION...TT  
 
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