507
FXUS63 KFGF 071739
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, CENTRAL
RRV, AND NORTHWESTERN MN. AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS CONTINUE TO BE
MINIMAL. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, AND TEMPS SHOULD RISE INTO
THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022
AN AREA OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN HAS STARTED TO PUSH INTO OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES, BUT NOT EVERYTHING IS REACHING THE GROUND.
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE MAIN BAND, AND EVEN FROM
THE MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ANY AMOUNTS AND IMPACTS WILL BE LIGHT.
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS, BUT KEPT THE OVERALL MESSAGE
THAT WE HAVE GOING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022
ADDED IN SOME POPS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND UPSTREAM RAIN OVER THE BIS
CWA THAT IS ON A GRADUAL EASTWARD TRAJECTORY. OTHERWISE, FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022
OVERVIEW...
SPOTTY RAIN SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE, IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S TODAY BEFORE WARMING UP TO NEAR NORMAL ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING ENOUGH FORCING TODAY FOR SPORADIC RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO IMPACT THE FA. LATEST CAMS SHOW AN INITIAL PUSH OF LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA THIS MORNING WITH AN IMPULSE
COMING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AFFECTING MUCH
OF THE FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT HREF
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME VARIABILITY REGARDING COVERAGE OF THESE RAIN
SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND THIS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE DAY. REGARDLESS, ANY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE, WITH ONLY AN ADDITIONAL FEW
HUNDREDTHS TO MAYBE A LOCALIZED TENTH OF AN INCH OF NEW RAINFALL
ANTICIPATED. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND A
LACK OF DIURNAL HEATING, INSTABILITY WILL BE AT A PREMIUM TODAY. AS
A RESULT, NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AT MOST
WITH ANY OF THE STRONGER SHOWERS THAT DO FORM.
AS QUICKLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ARRIVES, IT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS MAY LEAD TO RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING OVER NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. MOVING INTO MONDAY,
A CLEAN SLATE IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND, IN TANDEM, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WHILE THE MAIN LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA, TEMPERATURES,
NONETHELESS, WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S ON MONDAY. OWING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ALOFT,
PRECIPITATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
LOOKING LIKELY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY, NOT SEEING MUCH FOR IMPACTFUL
WEATHER. A ZONAL 500MB PATTERN WILL SWITCH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN MANITOBA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT IT WILL KNOCK DOWN HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
THE 500MB RIDGE BUILDS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AND DOES SHIFT
A LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THE MOST
UNCERTAINTY ARRIVES BY SATURDAY, BUT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR MORE
NORMAL HIGHS ON SATURDAY (LOW 80S). RIDGE RIDING SHORT WAVES LOOK
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME, BUT THESE DON'T APPEAR LIKELY TO
BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION. AT MOST, MAYBE JUST SOME DYING SHOWERS
WITH MINIMAL RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN AUG 7 2022
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, AS SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SOME VCSH OR -RA BUT THINK THAT THERE
WILL NOT BE ANY IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY AS THE RAIN IS VERY LIGHT.
WINDS THAT ARE NORTHWESTERLY AT SOME SITES WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, EVENTUALLY BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AT LESS THAN 10 KTS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RICK
LONG TERM...GODON
AVIATION...JR
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