247  
FXUS63 KFGF 162040  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
340 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019  
 
AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA, TEMPERATURES  
HAVE REMAINED WARM WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS  
KEPT MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND WILL  
KEEP LOWS TONIGHT VERY MILD IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. WITH THE  
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH A 50-KNOT 850MB JET OVER  
MINNESOTA, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER  
WESTERN MINNESOTA. MAX UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES OF NEAR 75 METERS  
SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME  
STRONGER STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT  
CONVECTIVELY ALLOWING MODELS DON'T SUGGEST ANYTHING TO BE TOO  
ORGANIZED LINEARLY. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET, MOVEMENT WILL BE  
QUICK, WITH ISOLATED WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS.  
FLOODING IS NOT OF CONCERN DUE TO THIS FAST MOVEMENT.  
 
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, WINDS WILL INCREASE AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY  
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL  
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH 80S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. AS A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT  
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA, CONVECTIVE CHANCES RETURN  
TOMORROW EVENING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL  
CHANCES RETURNING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019  
 
TUE NIGHT  
 
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH,  
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH A FEW STRONGER  
ELEVATED STORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER  
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE  
60S, WHICH IS STILL MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON.  
 
WED THROUGH FRI -  
 
SOME DEPARTING CONVECTION BEGINS THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WED FOLLOWED  
BY SLOWLY DEVELOPING RIDGING DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE  
FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER UNSEASONALLY WARM AND DRY DAY. AS WE HE  
AD LATER IN THE WEEK MOISTURE AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL RETURN  
AS WELL, MEANING A MORE SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF IMPACTFUL  
WEATHER.  
 
THU NIGHT INTO FRI LOOKS TO BE THE TARGET TIME FRAME AS A SFC  
COMPLEX OF LOW PRESSURE HEADS EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL  
HIGH PLAINS. ENSEMBLES ALL POINT TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THE  
MAIN UNCERTAINTY LYING IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SPC HAS PLACED OUR  
REGION IN A RARE DAY 5 MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR FRI. OPERATIONAL  
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A GOOD MOISTURE FEED IN FROM THE SOUTH, PAIRED  
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER DYNAMICS.  
 
SAT THROUGH MON -  
 
QUESTION FOR SAT IS HOW FAST PCPN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PIVOTING  
UPPER LOW CAN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION; USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES  
EXIST. MORE RIDGING SUN/MON SHOULD BRING MORE DRY AND WARM WEATHER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019  
 
FOR THE TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINANT AT ALL SITES.  
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT IN THE 10 KNOT RANGE AT ALL SITES.  
VCTS WILL IMPACT BJI NEAR SUNRISE, TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING.  
GFK, TVF, BJI, AND FAR ARE EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25  
KNOT RANGE LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH UP TO 40  
TO 50 KNOT WINDS AT 2,000 FEET AGL (LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR).  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GODON/WASILEWSKI  
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON/WASILEWSKI  
AVIATION...GODON/WASILEWSKI  
 
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