885
FXUS63 KFGF 262032
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
232 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.
- A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. ALTHOUGH SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
MOSTLY UNDER 1 INCH, THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY VISIBILITY
IMPACTS AS WINDS GUST TO 45 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
..SYNOPSIS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND WINDS RETURNING TO A SOUTHEASTERLY
DIRECTION. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TRAVELING ALONG THE ND/MANITOBA
BORDER WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW INTO THE DAKOTAS TOMORROW. WARM
AIR ADVECTION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL BRING
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE
FIRST COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE ON SATURDAY, WITH WINDS
RETURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BRINGING A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLD AIR AND TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW TO THE EAST AND HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
WEST. COLD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A FEW
REINFORCING SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH COULD BRING SOME LIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES AND REINFORCING COLD FRONTS. HOWEVER, EXACT
TIMING AND TRACKS STILL PRETTY UNCERTAIN SO WILL KEEP WHAT THE
NBM MEAN GIVES US.
..LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE FRONT SIDE OF SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WILL PROVIDE SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT, ALTHOUGH THE BEST MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MODEL SOUNDINGS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
CONTINUE TO HAVE A WARM LAYER ALOFT, ALTHOUGH SOME VARIATION IN
THE STRENGTH AND IF SLEET IS MOST LIKELY OR FREEZING RAIN. HREF
PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 TO 40
PERCENT IN OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, AND CHANCES FOR A
GLAZE OF ICE LOOK TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE THAN LAST NIGHT. THERE
IS ABOUT A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER ACCORDING TO THE PROBABILISTIC WSSI, SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY MESSAGING. THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME FOG
AS RELATIVELY WARMER AIR MOVES OVER ICY GROUND, BUT UNKNOWN AT
THIS POINT HOW DENSE IT WILL BE WITH PROBABILITIES FOR LOW VIS
WILDLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE NBM AND HREF. WILL MENTION FOG BUT
HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW.
..FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WITH RECENT FREEZING RAIN, A BIT MORE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ACROSS ALL BUT THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOMORROW, THE SNOW PACK WILL NOT BE BLOWABLE.
WINDS SHOULD GUST ABOVE 40 MPH FAIRLY EASILY WITH SOME DECENT
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT, ALTHOUGH THE
IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE RISES AREN'T QUITE OVER OUR AREA LIKE LAST
WEEK'S BLIZZARD EVENT. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A DUSTING
UP TO AN INCH, BUT THERE COULD STILL BE A PERIOD OF LOW
VISIBILITY AS THE FALLING SNOW IS BLOWN AROUND SUNDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH, WITH ONLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND NOT LOOKING LIKE WE WILL GET ENOUGH SNOW
FOR WARNING CRITERIA. STILL WILL MENTION IN GRIDS AS WELL AS
OUTLOOK GRAPHICS BUT WILL NOT MESSAGE THIS EVENT ON ITS OWN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST FRI DEC 26 2025
IFR CEILINGS AT ALL TAF SITES, AND KDVL IS EVEN DOWN TO LIFR.
COULD SEE A FEW SITES COME UP TO MVFR BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING BUT OVERALL IFR TO LIFR SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. VISIBILITY SO FAR IS MOSTLY IN THE 3-5SM RANGE, BUT
EXPECT SOME FOG FORMATION LATER TONIGHT. BEST PROBABILITIES FOR
VISIBILITY HALF MILE OR UNDER IS MAINLY OVER OUR WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THUS HAVE KDVL AND KFAR DROPPING BELOW 1
MILE VIS FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SOME
MODELS ARE CALLING FOR 1/4 MILE, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
THAT LOW CURRENTLY. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VISIBILITY OR EVEN
CEILINGS LATE TOMORROW MORNING, BUT NOT EXPECTING VFR OR EVEN
MUCH MVFR, STAYING IFR OR LOWER. WINDS THAT ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
8 TO 12 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR
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