198
FXUS63 KFGF 091958
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
258 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW WILL TRACK ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH THIS EVENING NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AND LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS ON GRASSY OR
ELEVATED SURFACES.
- MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED OVER THE WEEKEND. A
MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES AN UPSTREAM REX BLOCK TYPE PATTERN
OFF THE WESTERN US COAST, WITH WEAKENING MID/UPPER LOW OVER THE
HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA. OUR CWA IS UNDER THE TRANSITION OF
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A MID LEVEL SHORT PAVE PASSING THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS. THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE BUILDING
RIDGING THROUGH SATURDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND EVENTUALLY A SHIFT TOWARDS SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
WAA AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED, THOUGH PERIODS OF CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN
ACHIEVING THE UPPER PERCENTILES OF NBM GUIDANCE (25% CHANCE FOR
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH). WHILE ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED IN OUR REGION LOCALLY AS FLOW ISN'T COMPLETELY OPENED UP
FROM THE GULF, INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES WILL BRING SEVERAL PERIODS OF
RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN EARLY IN THE WEEK, WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE OF
A SPLIT ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WHICH KEEPS PERIODIC
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, BUT LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN
ACTUAL DETAILS AS EITHER THE SOUTHERN (WETTER/MORE UNSTABLE STREAM)
OR NORTHERN (COLDER/WINTRY) STREAM MAY NOT ALIGN WITH OUR CWA. AS OF
NOW THERE ARE NO SPECIFIC PERIODS HIGHLIGHTED BY NAEFS ANOMALIES,
ECMWF EFI, OR NBM PERCENTILES DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF
NEXT WEEK THAT RAISE CONCERNS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OR AN ELEVATED
RISK FOR WINTER IMPACTS.
..SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTH
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE DAKOTAS, ALONG WITH A LOBE OF
ENHANCED 700MB FRONTOGENSIS/STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS LED TO
BANDS/AREAS OF SNOW MAINLY IN NORTHERN SD. THIS IS TRACKING IN SUCH
A WAY THAT THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS SNOW AREA WILL LIKELY PASS
THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST ND AND OUR WEST CENTRAL MN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. BASED ON WEBCAMS AND OBS TO THE SOUTH
WHERE HIGHER RETURNS HAVE TRACKED, BRIEF VIS REDUCTIONS AROUND 1/4
MILE AND LIGHT SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. IMPACTS TO TRAVEL WOULD PRIMARILY BE RELATED TO WHERE
VISIBILITIES ARE REDUCED AS GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT
ACCUMULATIONS TO MAINLY GRASSY/ELEVATED LOCATIONS IN OUR AREA.
..RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
A NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH POTENTIAL FOR VALUES
IN THE 500-1200 J/KG RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY (MAINLY IN
WEST CENTRAL MN) MAY CORRELATED WITH A LLJ/WAA AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR
30-40KT TO SUPPORT ELEVATED EMBEDDED STRONG OR EVEN MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS TRACK TO THROUGH THE
REGION. HAIL TO 1" WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS IN THIS PATTERN AT THIS
TIME, WITH INSTABILITY/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MARGINAL AND THE
INSTABILITY CORRIDOR GENERALLY NARROWER IN NATURE. THERE IS A MUCH
SMALLER WINDOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION, WHICH
COULD SUPPORT HIGHER IMPACTS, BUT IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN DUE TO HOW
FAST THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. AS ANY RAIN OR THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REMAIN PROGRESSIVE, THERE IS CURRENTLY NOT A SIGNAL FOR
HEAVIER RAIN TOTALS (1"+) THAT WOULD RAISE EXCESSIVE RUNOFF CONCERNS
WITH FROZEN GROUND/MELTING SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU APR 9 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN,
WITH CLEARING TRENDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING EVENTUALLY
BRINGING VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD ALSO SHIFT TO
THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE THE SOUTH.
THIS SYSTEM IS RESPONSIBLE FOR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE
ND/SD STATE LINE AND THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 30%) AT
KFAR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. IF THIS WERE TO
IMPACT THE TERMINAL, VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO 3-6SM, BUT IT IS
MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR
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