459
FXUS63 KFGF 132124
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
424 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF HEAVY SNOW MAY IMPACT THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE IN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
- THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINTER IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST TO NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEK. THIS WILL HOUSE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE EXIT REGION OF THE BROADER
UPPER TROUGH, WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH'S AXIS FINALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE THIS WEEK. THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL PROVIDE INTERVALS OF PRECIPITATION TODAY AND
TUESDAY, AS WELL AS FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. THIS INCLUDES POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW AND ASSOCIATED WINTER IMPACTS BOTH TUESDAY AND LATER
THIS WEEK. MORE DETAILS ON THIS BELOW.
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE THROUGH OUR AREA AROUND FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, THERE IS A
SCENARIO WHERE INCREASING INSTABILITY WORKS ITS WAY INTO
MINNESOTA AND/OR EASTERN DAKOTAS TO ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS TIME, IT REMAINS UNCLEAR IF THIS WILL OCCUR AS THERE IS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN NUMEROUS PRECEDING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST THAT WILL DICTATE THIS BUOYANT AIR
MASS'S LOCATION.
THE UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE ORIENTED IN SUCH A WAY THAT ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD OUR PORTION OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S CURRENTLY
FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
WITH THE INCOMING UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE LATE THIS WEEK, A COOLER,
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS WILL ENVELOPE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
UPPER MIDWEST.
..POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS TUESDAY MORNING
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVING
GENERALLY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA NORTH OF I-94
CORRIDOR. A LARGE SUBSET OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE REVEALS
TEMPERATURES IN NORTHEAST ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN WILL BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO FREEZING TO ALLOW SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION TO FALL
AS SNOW. IN FACT, RELATIVELY STRONG ASCENT WITH RICH MOISTURE
FEEDING INTO THE ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY SNOW RATES BETWEEN
1-2 INCHES PER HOUR. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY FAST FORWARD MOVEMENT
OF THIS PRECIPITATION, THE TIME FOR HEAVY SNOW RATES TO RESIDE
OVER ANY PARTICULAR LOCATION IN THESE AREAS WILL BE BRIEF
(I.E. 1-3 HOURS AT ANY LOCATION).
WHILE MAJORITY OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS THIS
SCENARIO, THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN WHERE EXACTLY THIS
OCCURS WITHIN THESE REGION AS THE AREAS POTENTIALLY IMPACTED BY
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE QUITE NARROW. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS
ANTICIPATION OF RELATIVELY WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES LEADING TO
MELTING ON CONTACT. ALTHOUGH, THESE HIGHER SNOW RATES WILL
LIKELY OVERCOME WARM SURFACES TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME
ACCUMULATION ON NON-GRASSY SURFACES. ANYWHERE FROM 1-5 INCHES IS
LIABLE TO FALL, WITH MORE THAN 3 INCHES MORE LIKELY TO BE ON
GRASSY SURFACES.
HEAVY SNOW RATES WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY, AND MAY LEAD TO
SLIPPERY ROADS FROM A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION. AND WITH THIS
OCCURING DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE, WE'VE AMPLIFIED MESSAGING
OF THIS POTENTIAL VIA GRAPHICAL MESSAGING AS WELL AS ISSUING A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.
..LATE WEEK WINTER IMPACT POTENTIAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CLUSTER TOWARD A SCENARIO THAT
FEATURES HEAVY SNOW IN ONE OR TWO MORE CONSOLIDATED SYSTEMS'
DEFORMATION ZONES. HOWEVER, MOST GUIDANCE FAVORS MAJORITY OF
THIS SNOW TO REMAIN IN CANADA. THERE IS STILL A SUBSET OF
GUIDANCE THAT BRINGS SNOW INTO OUR AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
200. THIS INCLUDES SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 5 INCHES. SNOW MAY
ALSO COINCIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO INTRODUCE IMPACTS FROM BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY INTO THIS SCENARIO.
ADDITIONALLY, ENSEMBLES NOW REVEAL A POTENTIAL SCENARIO THAT
BRINGS A SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION AND SNOW THROUGH THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WIDENS THE WINDOW OF WHEN WINTER
IMPACTS MAY OCCUR FROM SOLELY FRIDAY TO NOW FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED SOME WHAT DOWN ON POTENTIAL
FOR WARNING LEVEL IMPACTS FROM 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW TO BE
LESS THAN 10%. HOWEVER, THE CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINTER
IMPACTS REMAINS AT AROUND 30%.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
AVIATION IMPACTS MAINLY STEM FROM LOW CEILINGS, INCLUDING
FORECAST CEILINGS INTO THE LIFR TO POTENTIALLY VLIFR.
LINGERING LOW CEILINGS RANGE FROM THE MVFR TO IFR CATEGORIES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ADDITIONAL PERIODS FOR LIFR TO
VLIFR COMES AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 1SM
IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST DUE TO FORECAST DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.
THESE CEILINGS MAY LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING AND
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO LIFT TOWARD AFTERNOON. AS
OF NOW, THERE IS NO FOG IN THE FORECAST, BUT MAY DEVELOP AT
SITES LIKE KBJI AND KTVF BETWEEN 03Z-15Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE UNDER 15 KT THROUGHOUT THE
TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ
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