247
FXUS63 KFGF 162040
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
340 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019
AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA, TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED WARM WITH LIMITED CLOUD COVER. SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS
KEPT MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND WILL
KEEP LOWS TONIGHT VERY MILD IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT COMBINED WITH A 50-KNOT 850MB JET OVER
MINNESOTA, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA. MAX UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES OF NEAR 75 METERS
SQUARED PER SECONDS SQUARED SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
STRONGER STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT
CONVECTIVELY ALLOWING MODELS DON'T SUGGEST ANYTHING TO BE TOO
ORGANIZED LINEARLY. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET, MOVEMENT WILL BE
QUICK, WITH ISOLATED WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERNS.
FLOODING IS NOT OF CONCERN DUE TO THIS FAST MOVEMENT.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, WINDS WILL INCREASE AND REMAIN SOUTHERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. HIGHS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH 80S COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA, CONVECTIVE CHANCES RETURN
TOMORROW EVENING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL
CHANCES RETURNING.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019
TUE NIGHT
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH,
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS THE MAIN CONCERN WITH A FEW STRONGER
ELEVATED STORMS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WESTERLY. LOWS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
60S, WHICH IS STILL MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE SEASON.
WED THROUGH FRI -
SOME DEPARTING CONVECTION BEGINS THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WED FOLLOWED
BY SLOWLY DEVELOPING RIDGING DURING THE DAY. THIS WOULD PROVIDE THE
FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER UNSEASONALLY WARM AND DRY DAY. AS WE HE
AD LATER IN THE WEEK MOISTURE AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS WILL RETURN
AS WELL, MEANING A MORE SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF IMPACTFUL
WEATHER.
THU NIGHT INTO FRI LOOKS TO BE THE TARGET TIME FRAME AS A SFC
COMPLEX OF LOW PRESSURE HEADS EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. ENSEMBLES ALL POINT TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WITH THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY LYING IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SPC HAS PLACED OUR
REGION IN A RARE DAY 5 MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR FRI. OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A GOOD MOISTURE FEED IN FROM THE SOUTH, PAIRED
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER DYNAMICS.
SAT THROUGH MON -
QUESTION FOR SAT IS HOW FAST PCPN BEHIND THE FRONT AND PIVOTING
UPPER LOW CAN MOVE EAST OF THE REGION; USUAL TIMING DIFFERENCES
EXIST. MORE RIDGING SUN/MON SHOULD BRING MORE DRY AND WARM WEATHER.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2019
FOR THE TAF PERIOD, VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DOMINANT AT ALL SITES.
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT IN THE 10 KNOT RANGE AT ALL SITES.
VCTS WILL IMPACT BJI NEAR SUNRISE, TAPERING OFF BY LATE MORNING.
GFK, TVF, BJI, AND FAR ARE EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH UP TO 40
TO 50 KNOT WINDS AT 2,000 FEET AGL (LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GODON/WASILEWSKI
LONG TERM...WJB/GODON/WASILEWSKI
AVIATION...GODON/WASILEWSKI
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