029
FXUS63 KFGF 231131
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
631 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES VARY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE COMING WEEK WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM 30S (NORTH) TO 50S AND 60S (SOUTH)
- CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN/SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
- DRYING FUELS THIS WEEK MAY INTERMITTENTLY SUPPORT LOW END
FIRE DANGER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WITH ONLY SUBTLE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA RIDGING
TO THE WEST AND LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGHING PERMEATING ACROSS A
60-70KT NORTHERN STREAM JET WE REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY QUIET AND
LOW AMPLITUDE CONUS SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE COMING WEEK AS WE REMAIN SITUATED ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
WITH HIGHS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE 30S THEN 40S TO 50S
SOUTH OF IT. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SYSTEM PASSING TO
THE NORTH IN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO WILL BRING COOLER TEMPS
FARTHER SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MOST AREAS STAYING
IN THE 30S AND LOW 40S BUT OTHERWISE EACH DAY THIS WEEK LOOKS TO
HAVE A SHOT AT 50S IN THE SOUTH. THIS MAY LEAD TO MARGINALLY
INCREASED FIRE CONCERNS BUT AS THINGS ARE STILL DRYING OUT THOSE
CONCERNS REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.
- MID-WEEK PRECIP
CLUSTERS DO SHOW SOME MODEST TRACK UNCERTAINTY WEDNESDAY WITH A
SYSTEM ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE CLUSTERS WITH A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK BRING UP TO 1" OF SNOW ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER AND A DUSTING AS FAR SOUTH AS HWY 2 BUT NORTHERN
SOLUTIONS BARELY BRING A DUSTING ACROSS THE BORDER. OVERALL NOT
AN IMPACTFUL DIFFERENCE THAT WOULD CHANGE MOST DECISIONS BEING
MADE BUT MAY BRING SORROW TO THOSE HOPING TO SEE WINTER LEAVE.
- DRYING FUELS
WITH HIGHS REGULARLY IN THE 40S AND 50S THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND MIN RH ACCORDINGLY DROPPING INTO THE 20S AND 30S
PERCENT RANGE THERE MAY OCCASIONALLY BE SOME LOW END FIRE DANGER
FOR AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY LOST THEIR SNOWPACK AND ARE REALLY
STARTING TO DRY OUT. ERC ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA IS
FORECAST TO REACH NEAR THE 80TH PERCENTILE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH HDWI SHOWING PERIODS REACHING THE 90TH PERCENTILE AS
WELL. IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF WINDS AND RH WILL LINE UP TO
YIELD INCREASED FIRE CONCERNS BUT WANTED TO AT LEAST BRING TO
ATTENTION THE DRYING FUELS AND OVERALL WARMER PATTERN THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR IS FORECASTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
TODAY, BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
SPRINKLES AT NORTHERN TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITIES WERE TOO LOW TO ADD ANY PROB30S
INTO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. TONIGHT, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH, BRINGING A WINDSHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TO END THE TAF
PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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