473
FXUS63 KFGF 161725
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1225 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BLOWING/ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BRING TRAVEL IMPACTS TUESDAY.
- FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY LINGER ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM INTO WEDNESDAY EXTENDING THE WINDOW FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
BUT CONFIDENCE ON END TIMING IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
..SYNOPSIS
COLD TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING BELOW ZERO IN
MOST LOCATIONS AND INTO THE MINUS TEENS IN NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AND FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WE'LL SEE ANOTHER COLD DAY
MONDAY BEFORE WE START TO WARM UP WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS.
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY LARGE RIDGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES,
BRINGING EXTREME HEAT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PUTTING US IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL BE A VERY FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE THAT BRINGS A NICE SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY THE QPF FOOTPRINT IS MODEST,
AT 0.10-0.25". THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE THERMAL RIDGE SO SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN,
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE RIDGE SOME FREEZING
RAIN MAY MIX IN. THIS CREATES A ROUGHLY 60% CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
IMPACTS DUE TO FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND 60S
BY THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE WE GET ANOTHER SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION. OVERALL, EXPECT A RELATIVELY QUIETER WEEK WITH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEING THE MAIN RISK FOR WEATHER IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH CLOUD COVER ON THE
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING
AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ENTERS THE FORECAST JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE AT KDVL, THEN SPREADS
TO THE EAST, APPROACHING KGFK BY 17Z. IFR VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED
DURING PERIODS OF SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH WIND
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY AT KFAR AND KGFK.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/TT
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...LYNCH
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