953  
FXUS63 KFGF 271225  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
725 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN THRU TUESDAY, HEAVIEST/MOST INTENSE  
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE DEVILS LAKE-LANGDON AREAS WHERE PROBS  
OF 1 INCH OR MORE ARE 80 PERCENT AND PROBS OF 2 INCHES 20  
PERCENT.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025  
 
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS....RAIN AREA AS EXPECTED  
MINOT EAST TO DVL. MOVING NNE. WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING EAST  
LATER TODAY....SO POPS IN THE EASTERN PART MAY NEED TO BE  
ADJUSTED THRU THE DAY FOR BETTER TIMING.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
MAIN 500 MB L OW IS IN NORTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. A 100-120 KT 300  
MB JET IS FROM OFF THE OREGON COAST INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING AND  
COLORADO WITH 70 KT 500 MB JET IN SAME AREA. A SHORT WAVE ON THE  
FRONT LEFT QUAD OF THIS 500/300 MB JET OVER WYOMING WILL SWING  
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL ND BY 06Z TUES, IN BETWEEN GRAND  
FORKS AND BISMARCK/MINOT. IT IS IN BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND MINOT  
WHERE THE MAX RAINFALL IS FORECAST AND WHERE THE MAX 700 AND 800  
MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE SEEN WITH STRONG VALUES NOTED  
NEAR DEVILS LAKE, RUGBY NORTHEAST TO LANGDON THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING AND NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE  
ALL FOCUSED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THIS STRONG  
FORCING ZONE WITH PROBS OF 1 INCH OR MORE 80 PERCENT DEVILS LAKE  
TO LANGDON, WITH PROBS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE 20 PERCENT. FARTHER  
EAST YOU GO THE LESS FORCING THERE WILL BE AS SHORT WAVE SWINGS  
NORTHEAST TONIGHT, SO WHILE IT WILL RAIN ALL AREAS THE INTENSITY  
WILL BE LIGHTER WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LESS WITH SUB 1 INCH  
VALUES NOTED IN NW MN TO GRAND FORKS AND 0.50 INCH OR SO FARTHER  
SOUTH/EAST THRU WEST CENTRAL MN AND SE ND.  
 
RAINFALL ENDS GRADUALLY TUESDAY FROM THE WEST, BUT WILL LIKELY  
TAKE TIL LATE IN THE DAY IN EASTERN FCST AREA.  
 
WINDS TODAY, WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AS 925 MB WINDS ARE  
30-35 KTS AND 850 MB WINDS 45-50 KTS MAXING EASTERN RRV.  
SOUNDINGS AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS SHOW A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER  
FOR WINDS UP THRU 950 MB. IF WE CAN TAP INTO HIGHER WINDS UP  
CLOSER TO 900 MB OR 850 MB THEN ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR  
FOR A TIME MID MORNING TO MID AFTN IN THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN  
RRV, NORTHWEST MN.  
 
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK AFTER THIS SYSTEM.  
COOLING DOWN TOWARD HALLOWEEN BUT NO SIGNIFCANT PRECIPITATION  
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025  
 
IN RAIN, LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO DROP INTO MVFR RANGE AND  
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE. SO TIMED THAT PROGRESSION AT THE TAF  
SITES. TIMING WILL PROBABLY BE OFF A BIT AND FUTURE AMENDMENTS  
WILL BE NEEDED TO TIME THAT BETTER. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-25  
KTS TODAY, GUSTS 30 KTS IN THE RRV.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...TT  
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE  
AVIATION...RIDDLE  
 
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