965  
FXUS63 KFGF 090430  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, RISK LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5, LATE  
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
 
- SEVERE STORMS RISK LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  
 
- HEAT RISK RISES TO THE MODERATE CATEGORY THURSDAY AFTERNOON,  
BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STAY  
BELOW 100 DEGREES.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
THERE ARE A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING SURFACE SMOKE IN NORTHEAST  
ND (4-6SM) OTHERWISE SMOKE IS MAINLY ALOFT AND NOT IN HIGH  
ENOUGH CONCENTRATIONS/CAUSING LOW ENOUGH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS  
FOR ADDITION TO WEATHER GRIDS AT THIS TIME. NEAR TERM  
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE, OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A  
WEAK/SPOTTY RADIATIONAL FOG SIGNAL IN THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN  
RRV.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
CU IS BEGINNING TO CLEAR WITH LOW LEVELS DECOUPLING WHILE HIGH  
LIVE SMOKE IS STILL LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. AS WINDS  
GO CALM AND CLOUD COVER REMAINS CLEAR RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS MAY  
ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PERIOD OF PEAK  
RADIATIONAL COOLING WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SIGNAL IN GUIDANCE IS  
VERY SPOTTY, AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS IN THE FAR NORTH AND  
SOUTH. I ADDED PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR THOSE AREAS DURING THE  
09-14Z PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER IMPACTS/HIGHER COVERAGE  
IS LOW.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
FAIRLY QUIET TONIGHT AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW GIVES WAY TO VERY  
WEAK RIDGING. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE  
RIDGE TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BRING A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND A SURFACE TROUGH  
AXIS ARRIVING THURSDAY WILL BRING ANOTHER MARGINAL CHANCE FOR  
SEVERE IMPACTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A TROUGH  
WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE DAKOTAS FOR FRIDAY AND OFF INTO THE  
GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY, FAIRLY OPEN AND FAST MOVING ALTHOUGH  
EXACT IMPACTS WILL DEPEND ON THE WAY PREVIOUS DAY'S CONVECTION  
PLAYS OUT. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH MANITOBA TO THE  
GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE  
REGION. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK  
WILL BRING MORE ACTIVE PATTERN, BUT DETAILS UNKNOWN AT THIS  
TIME.  
   
..MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
 
 
A SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF SOME WEAK RIDGING COULD BE  
THE FOCUS OF SOME ISOLATED SEVERE IMPACTS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG IN CENTRAL ND, AS A NARROW BAND OF  
MOISTURE MOVING BACK UP INTO THE DAKOTAS. SHEAR IN THE CENTRAL  
DAKOTAS IS DECENT, AROUND 30 KTS, BUT WEAKER FURTHER EAST IN OUR  
CWA. FORCING IS PRETTY WEAK DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, BUT LOOKS  
LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME STORMS DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL ND AND THEN  
MOVING EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.  
   
..SLIGHT RISK THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
 
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND THEN  
FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING INTO  
THE REGION. SHEAR IS STILL NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE, BUT VERY STRONG  
INSTABILITY WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. CAPE IS 70  
TO 90 PERCENTILES HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGY FOR THURSDAY, AND WITH  
THE STRONGER FORCING THERE COULD BE ENOUGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR FOR  
SEVERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING  
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS THAT  
DEVELOP.  
   
..HEAT THURSDAY  
 
THE INSTABILITY ON THURSDAY WILL BE POWERED BY VERY WARM  
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. EFI IS NOT AS HIGH AS  
TEMPERATURES AS IT IS FOR CAPE, BUT STILL A GOOD SIGNAL FOR  
HEAT. AT THIS POINT HEAT INDEX LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY BELOW  
ADVISORY CRITERIA AND REMAIN UNDER 100 DEGREES, BUT HEAT RISK IS  
UP IN THE MODERATE CATEGORY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TO SEE IF  
TRENDS GO HIGHER IN THE UPCOMING SHIFTS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST  
MN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A LOW CHANCE  
FOR RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT 09-14Z WEDNESDAY MORNING WHERE  
IFR (OR LESS) VISIBILITY MAY OCCUR. THERE HAS BEEN A BIT MORE  
CONSISTENCY ON POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST ND TO  
THE WEST AND SOUTH OF KFAR, BUT EVEN THEN THE GUIDANCE HAS  
TENDED TO BE SPOTTY IN IMPACTS. THERE ARE ALSO STILL AREAS HIGH  
LEVEL SMOKE ALOFT OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. WINDS INCREASE  
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 20KT+  
MAINLY IN EASTERN ND DURING THE AFTERNOON. CU SHOULD BEGIN TO  
INCREASE (6000-10000 FT AGL) IN COVERAGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE  
TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES (20-30%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS  
WEDNESDAY EVENING MAINLY IN ND. COVERAGE/PROBABILITY FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TOO LOW AT THIS RANGE FOR TAF INCLUSION  
WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...DJR  
DISCUSSION...JR  
AVIATION...DJR  
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