478
FXUS63 KFGF 010918
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
418 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES
AND COOLER AIR MOVE IN MONDAY.
- MONITOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RH VALUES IN THE 28 TO 35
PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SUNNIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE ANOTHER
COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY
ABOVE CRITICAL CONDITIONS WITH RH VALUES UPPER 20S AND 30S EACH
AFTERNOON THRU SUNDAY. BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
..SYNOPSIS
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO BRING N/NW FLOW
ALOFT TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. AS
THE CANADIAN LOW DEGRADES OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS FLOW BECOMES
SLIGHTLY MORE NW WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY STILL PERCOLATING THROUGH
THE CWA. THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A CLOUD PROBLEM BUT A FEW STRAY SHOWERS
MAY EMERGE AT TIMES THOUGH OVERALL DRY INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WILL
PRECLUDE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OF ANY PRECIP. BY MONDAY A MORE ROBUST
WAVE BRINGS RAIN CHANCES WITH A 30 TO 60% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN 0.10"
DEPENDING ON SYSTEM TRACK.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS (LOW)
WITH THE INVERTED V SOUNDINGS AND THERMAL RIDGING TO OUR WEST THERE
WILL BE MINOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. DAILY
MINIMUM RH LOOKS TO REGULARLY BE 30-40% WITH MORE SPORADIC INSTANCES
AS LOW AS 25% IN CASES OF STRONGER MIXING DAYS (SATURDAY/SUNDAY).
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NORTHERLY TODAY AND FRIDAY AT 10-15
MPH (GUSTS TO 20) WITH WINDS BECOMING S/SW SATURDAY AT 10-15 MPH.
WINDS VARYING ANYWHERE FROM W TO N FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON ONWARDS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS MONDAY AT 20-25 MPH AND
GUSTS OF 30-35MPH. OVERALL MONDAY IS PROBABLY THE ONLY DAY WITH REAL
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT THE PROLONGED LOW RH STRETCH MAY LEAD TO
LOWER END CONCERNS EVEN BEFORE THEN WITH DAILY HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
VERY SIMPLE TAFS AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH VFR PREVAILING
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN BREAKING UP THIS
EVENING, LEAVING SKIES GENERALLY CLEAR AS WE GO INTO THE NIGHT.
ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WE MAY SEE A RETURN OF CLOUD BASES IN THE
4,000 TO 6,000 FT AGL RANGE, BUT THE PROBABILITY THEY FORM A
CEILING IS LOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME NORTHERLY FOR FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET ON
FRIDAY, BECOMING EITHER VARIABLE OR POTENTIALLY OBTAINING A
PREVAILING SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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