585  
FXUS63 KFGF 050226  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
926 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE FA, WITH SOME  
CLEAR SPOTS BEHIND IT OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE  
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW ECHOES AROUND MINOT, BUT NOT SURE  
HOW MUCH OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND EITHER. NO CHANGES ARE  
PLANNED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS SHIFTING ACROSS THE FA  
RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE EVEN SOME WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR. THIS IS  
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 850MB JET, BROAD WARM ADVECTION, AND EVEN  
SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT. SO MOSTLY EXPECTING SOME VIRGA TONIGHT,  
DOUBT IF ANYTHING WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND. THERE MAY ALSO  
BE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY BREAKS BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
AREA OF MID CLOUDS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700 MB WARM  
ADVECTION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. ECHOES REMAIN MOVING TOWARD  
JAMESTOWN. OBS HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE  
GROUND, BUT RADAR RETURNS WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST SOMETHING WOULD.  
MORE LIKELY BRIEF LIGHT SNOW. WILL CONTINUE A LOW MENTION OF -SN  
INTO AREAS AROUND VALLEY CITY LATE AFTN AND THEN WEAKEN IT.  
OTHERWISE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING ENE THRU S SASKATCHEWAN AND THIS  
WILL TRACK MOSTLY NORTH OF THE BORDER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A  
VERY LOW POP FOR -SN ALONG THE BORDER PER PREV FCST. HRRR  
ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST TO TURN A  
BIT MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR DOES MOVE IN.  
THEREFORE NOT A LARGE TEMP DROP TONIGHT.  
 
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE MID CLOUDS MOVE EAST, AND WARM ADVECTION  
CONTINUES. BUT IN THE THICKER SNOWPACK KEPT HIGHS ON THE LOWER  
SIDE OF GUIDANCE, IN THE LOW 40S. LOW 50S MORE LIKELY FAR EAST AND  
SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR 850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION  
WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN. FOCUS IS ON THE  
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. RAIN AMOUNTS DO LOOK  
LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 0.10 INCH ON AVERAGE. TEMPS DO LOOK TO STAY  
WARMER THAN 32F DURING THE PRECIPITATION.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
MILDER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA WITH  
40S. 50S TO AROUND 60 FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO A SURFACE TO 850 MB WARM  
FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LOW PRESSURE  
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE  
MONDAY EVENING. 850 MB WARM ADVECTION AND A 30 KT 850 MB JET WILL  
FOCUS A WARM 925-850 MB LAYER INTO FAR SE ND AND WC MN BY 06Z TUE.  
MUCAPES VIA 12Z GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW 500-800 J/KG. IT WOULD APPEAR  
THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING NEARER  
JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR I-94 AND THEN THE 850 MB JET  
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AND THE INSTABILITY BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT  
FOCUS MORE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AND EASTWARD FROM  
THERE. SO POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS, ESP CENTRAL  
AND SOUTH, WITH RISK OF A FEW T-STORMS. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW  
STRONGER T-STORM PROVIDED STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB. GOOD  
NEWS IS THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND OVERALL  
INCREASING IN AREA AS IT MOVES MORE EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE RED  
RIVER THRU MN. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15 TO 0.35 SEEM  
REASONABLE, BUT WITH PWATS OVER 0.75 INCH SOME ISOLD HEAVIER  
TOTALS LIKELY...BUT THINKING THEY WILL BE LOCALIZED. STILL  
SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR ANY HYDRO IMPACTS.  
 
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE DOWN MID TO LATE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS CRASH  
BACK DOWN TO -10 TO -13C WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER AIR, MOSTLY FLURRIES OR  
SPRINKLES. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THE SECOND HALF OF THE  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
NOT SEEING ANY ISSUES FOR THE TAFS UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD,  
WHEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN. THIS WILL PROBABLY APPEAR  
MORE ON THE 06Z SET OF TAFS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020  
 
THE RIVERS WERE GENERALLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ON BOTH THE NORTH  
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES. A SECONDARY RISE IS EXPECTED NEXT  
WEEK WHEN THE RECENT SNOWFALL MELTS.  
 
THE FORECAST POINTS ON THE MAIN STEM RED RIVER WERE GENERALLY STEADY  
OR SLOWLY FALLING FROM HALSTAD SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH  
OF HALSTAD CONTINUE TO RISE. A SECONDARY RISE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK  
FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST POINTS WHEN THE RECENT SNOWFALL MELTS.  
HARWOOD AND THE WEST FARGO DIVERSION COULD GO TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE  
NEXT WEEK. A SECONDARY PEAK MAY BE POSSIBLE BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD  
FOR THE NORTHERN FORECAST POINTS.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
RIVER POINT FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
THE REGION. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR  
DETAILED INFORMATION ON SPECIFIC LOCATIONS.  
 

 

 
 
UPDATE...GODON  
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE  
LONG TERM...RIDDLE  
AVIATION...GODON  
HYDROLOGY...JK  
 
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