541
FXUS63 KFGF 072320
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
620 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES APPROACHING 15 TO 20%.
- AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW,
WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIGGING DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE, ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH SOME CLUSTERS PUSHING RIDGING INTO
THE PLAINS AND OTHER CLUSTERS KEEPING US IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
PREDICTABILITY IS LOW ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF EFI DOES SHOW OUR
COLDER TEMPERATURES SIGNAL TRANSITIONING OVER TO WARMER THAN
AVERAGE BY DAYS 6 AND 7.
..THIS AFTERNOON'S NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES FINALLY NOT QUITE AS COOL AS THEY HAVE BEEN THIS
WEEK AND MOST SPOTS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S. WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE TEENS TO LOW 20S, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED INTO
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS ARE MOSTLY
UNDER 15 MPH ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS ARE GUSTING UP TO AROUND 20
MPH. SPS FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO
SEEM GOOD, AND THE LOW RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING
BEFORE TEMPERATURES START TO DROP.
..TOMORROW AND BEYOND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SIMILAR RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND THERE
WILL BE MORE OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. WHILE WINDS LOOK HIGHER THAN TODAY, THERE IS ONLY
AROUND 30 KTS TO MIX DOWN AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRESSURE
RISES. THE 50TH PERCENTILE OF NBM HAS SOME 25 MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS IN EAST CENTRAL ND, BUT MAY BE DUE TO THE NBM'S BIAS IN
THAT AREA. THE HREF JOINT PROBABILITY FOR WINDS OVER 25 MPH AND
RH VALUES UNDER 25 PERCENT DOESN'T HAVE MUCH. DROPPING THE WINDS
THRESHOLD DOWN TO 20 MPH GIVES US SOME LOW CHANCES FOR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THE MN SIDE, AROUND 20 PERCENT.
DEFINITELY COULD SEE CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A
WATCH AT THIS POINT. STILL BREEZY INTO SATURDAY, BUT SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS SHOULD BRING HIGHER RH VALUES AND THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. LESS WIND AND SIMILAR RH VALUES FOR
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CIGS REMAINING ABOVE 5KFT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTS HAVE MOSTLY ENDED FOR THE DAY BUT A FEW
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. WINDS FLIPPING S TO SW FOR ALL BY MIDNIGHT AND SWING
BACK TO NW BY THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW AT 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS OF
20-25 MPH. WINDS MAINLY PICKING UP 16-18Z AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN
THAT AS IT SEEMS TO JUST BE FOLLOWING THE DIURNAL MIXING CURVE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...TT
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