743
FXUS63 KFGF 252349
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
649 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME WINTRY MIXED
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PROBABILITY OF
ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS IS 30 PERCENT.
- DRYING FUELS MAY INTERMITTENTLY SUPPORT LOW END FIRE DANGER
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..SYNOPSIS
FAST, NEAR ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH
SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. ONE OF THE SHORTWAVES
MOVES THROUGH MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TONIGHT, HELPING TO PUSH THE
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THE REST
OF THE WAY THROUGH. ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM
SASKATCHEWAN INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR.
NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW AND RISING HEIGHTS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND AS THE MAIN TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. NEAR ZONAL
FLOW FOR MONDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW STARTS TO TRANSITION, WITH
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TUESDAY.
STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW EXACTLY
THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH COMES INTO THE ROCKIES OR PLAINS BY MID-
WEEK, BUT OVERALL LOOKING LIKE AN ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
..WINTRY MIX TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST FOR ALL BUT FAR
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WHILE THERE HAS BEEN
TEMPERATURES GETTING INTO THE 60S IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ND
AND WEST CENTRAL MN, MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN TIER HAS STAYED IN THE
30S OR EVEN UPPER 20S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION. THE COLDER AIR WILL MOVE MORE FIRMLY IN PLACE
TONIGHT, AND MANY AREAS WILL BE BELOW FREEZING. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING THIS
EVENING, MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200. SHOULD START OUT
AS RAIN AS EVEN WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION THE SURFACE AND ROAD
TEMPS WILL TAKE A WHILE TO COOL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTH. BUT AS
THE LOWER LEVELS AND THEN THE WARM LAYER ALOFT START TO COOL,
COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW IN SOME AREAS.
NBM HAS AROUND A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT ICING. IT IS
UNCERTAIN HOW WIDESPREAD IMPACTS WILL BE GIVEN THE CURRENTLY
VERY WARM ROAD TEMPERATURES ARE IN MOST OF OUR COUNTIES. AT THIS
POINT, NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS FOR ANY
HEADLINES, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE WEEKEND
AFTER OUR COOL DOWN DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WORK WEEK,
TEMPERATURES START TO RECOVER AND WILL BE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE WEEKEND. WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SOME HIGHER
DEW POINTS IN, THEY WILL NOT RISE AS FAST AS TEMPERATURES AND
AFTERNOON RH VALUES COULD BE IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE IN
SOME AREAS. AT THIS POINT, WINDS DO NOT SEEM LIKE THEY WILL BE
HIGH ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT COULD GET
CLOSE. WILL MENTION IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BUT NOT OTHER
MESSAGING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED THROUGH EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN
AND STALLED TO THE WEST AND SOUTH, WITH LOW STRATUS ALREADY
ACROSS NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO
VFR. HOWEVER, THERE IS CURRENTLY AN AREA OF IFR CEILINGS IMPACTING
NORTHEAST ND (INCLUDING GFK) WHICH MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO MVFR. NORTHERLY WINDS
12-16KT SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT, INCREASING THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT: EARLY ON
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN (MINIMAL IMPACTS AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THOSE AREAS). THE FREEZING
LINE TONIGHT WILL TEND TO HOVER BETWEEN I-94 AND HIGHWAY 2
RESULTING IN HIGHLY VARIABLE/UNCERTAIN PRECIPITATION TYPES AS A
MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE AT KFAR WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING, WHILE
COVERAGE MAY BE LOWER FARTHER NORTH WHERE SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 30%
CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS DURING THE LATE
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WHICH WILL BE MONITORED FOR
IMPACTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR
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