334
FXUS63 KFGF 301215
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
715 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL IMPACT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA FOR THE COMMUTE THIS MORNING. LIGHT ICING CONFINED
TO ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS FORECAST TONIGHT. THIS
MAY BRING GLAZE OF ICE FROM LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, BRINGING A 30% CHANCE
OF ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS.
- A STRONGER SYSTEM COULD BRING ADDITIONAL IMPACTS LATE THIS
WEEK. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH WARMER TEMPS PREVAIL ON MONDAY AS WAA
CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, TO THE LOW 60S IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SURGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED, HOWEVER, AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES, MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, SUPPORT
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA; HOWEVER, AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF WINTRY MIX AND LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF SNOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH LOWER
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. THE MAIN CONCERN, HOWEVER, WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE DUE TO WINTRY MIX AND FREEZING RAIN. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS, MAINLY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THE LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE.
HEADING INTO MID WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH 30S AND 40S BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ENTER THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY, WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR WINTER IMPACTS. ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW, THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE THE PTYPE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE TWO MAIN
SCENARIOS THAT ARE SUPPORTED IN CLUSTER ANALYSIS, ONE WITH THE LOW
TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AND AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE NORTHERN TRACK WOULD KEEP PTYPES
IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA MOSTLY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY WINTRY MIX. THE SOUTHERN TRACK, HOWEVER, BRINGS HEAVY SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD. BOTH SCENARIOS BRING MOISTURE, HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN
SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE IMPACTFUL FROM A WINTER WEATHER
PERSPECTIVE. ADDITIONALLY, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE HIGH ON
BOTH THE APPROACH AND DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW, BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 40 PERCENT AGGREGATE CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY IMPACTS, WITH THE PROBS BEING LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN
TRACK AND MUCH HIGHER WITH A SOUTHERN TRACK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
AVIATION IMPACTS WITHIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY STEM FROM
POTENTIALLY LOWERED CEILINGS, AS WELL AS FROM LIGHT SNOW AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN.
FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT UPON MAINTAINING MVFR AND
IFR CEILINGS IN NORTHEAST ND (CURRENTLY IMPACTING KDVL)
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. GUIDANCE ALSO FLIRTS THE EASTERN
EXTENT OF THESE LOWERED CEILINGS NEAR KGFK THIS MORNING THROUGH
18Z, FAVORED TO BE VFR BETWEEN 18Z AND AROUND 09Z TONIGHT.
BETWEEN 09Z - 12Z TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, ALL SITES HOLD A
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SEEING LOWERED CEILINGS, WITH LOWEST CEILINGS
MOST LIKELY IN NORTHWEST MN AT SITES LIKE KTVF AND KBJI.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST 5 - 13 KT UNTIL
AROUND 06Z - 12Z WHERE WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST 10 - 20 KT.
LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN BEFORE 18Z. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS FORECAST AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING IN
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ND INTO MN, INCLUDING SITES LIKE KDVL,
KGFK, KTVF, AND KBJI. KBJI IS RELATIVELY MOST LIKELY TO SEE
FREEZING RAIN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...CJ
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