953
FXUS63 KFGF 271225
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
725 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN THRU TUESDAY, HEAVIEST/MOST INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE DEVILS LAKE-LANGDON AREAS WHERE PROBS
OF 1 INCH OR MORE ARE 80 PERCENT AND PROBS OF 2 INCHES 20
PERCENT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS....RAIN AREA AS EXPECTED
MINOT EAST TO DVL. MOVING NNE. WILL TAKE ITS TIME MOVING EAST
LATER TODAY....SO POPS IN THE EASTERN PART MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED THRU THE DAY FOR BETTER TIMING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
..SYNOPSIS
MAIN 500 MB L OW IS IN NORTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN. A 100-120 KT 300
MB JET IS FROM OFF THE OREGON COAST INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING AND
COLORADO WITH 70 KT 500 MB JET IN SAME AREA. A SHORT WAVE ON THE
FRONT LEFT QUAD OF THIS 500/300 MB JET OVER WYOMING WILL SWING
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL ND BY 06Z TUES, IN BETWEEN GRAND
FORKS AND BISMARCK/MINOT. IT IS IN BETWEEN GRAND FORKS AND MINOT
WHERE THE MAX RAINFALL IS FORECAST AND WHERE THE MAX 700 AND 800
MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BE SEEN WITH STRONG VALUES NOTED
NEAR DEVILS LAKE, RUGBY NORTHEAST TO LANGDON THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE
ALL FOCUSED THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IN THIS STRONG
FORCING ZONE WITH PROBS OF 1 INCH OR MORE 80 PERCENT DEVILS LAKE
TO LANGDON, WITH PROBS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE 20 PERCENT. FARTHER
EAST YOU GO THE LESS FORCING THERE WILL BE AS SHORT WAVE SWINGS
NORTHEAST TONIGHT, SO WHILE IT WILL RAIN ALL AREAS THE INTENSITY
WILL BE LIGHTER WITH RAINFALL TOTALS LESS WITH SUB 1 INCH
VALUES NOTED IN NW MN TO GRAND FORKS AND 0.50 INCH OR SO FARTHER
SOUTH/EAST THRU WEST CENTRAL MN AND SE ND.
RAINFALL ENDS GRADUALLY TUESDAY FROM THE WEST, BUT WILL LIKELY
TAKE TIL LATE IN THE DAY IN EASTERN FCST AREA.
WINDS TODAY, WILL BE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AS 925 MB WINDS ARE
30-35 KTS AND 850 MB WINDS 45-50 KTS MAXING EASTERN RRV.
SOUNDINGS AT FARGO AND GRAND FORKS SHOW A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER
FOR WINDS UP THRU 950 MB. IF WE CAN TAP INTO HIGHER WINDS UP
CLOSER TO 900 MB OR 850 MB THEN ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR
FOR A TIME MID MORNING TO MID AFTN IN THE CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
RRV, NORTHWEST MN.
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER THE REST OF THE WEEK AFTER THIS SYSTEM.
COOLING DOWN TOWARD HALLOWEEN BUT NO SIGNIFCANT PRECIPITATION
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 723 AM CDT MON OCT 27 2025
IN RAIN, LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO DROP INTO MVFR RANGE AND
EVENTUALLY IFR RANGE. SO TIMED THAT PROGRESSION AT THE TAF
SITES. TIMING WILL PROBABLY BE OFF A BIT AND FUTURE AMENDMENTS
WILL BE NEEDED TO TIME THAT BETTER. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-25
KTS TODAY, GUSTS 30 KTS IN THE RRV.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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