864
FXUS63 KFGF 260434
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1134 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS BY LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
RAIN CAN BE NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ON RADAR HOWEVER DRY AIR IS STILL EVIDENT AND
PREVENTING MUCH OF IT FROM REACHING THE GROUND CURRENTLY.
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A GRADUAL MOISTENING TREND IN THE
LOW LEVELS ALLOWING FOR PERHAPS A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS TO A TENTH
OF AN INCH TO FALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE FORCING
WANES BY SUNRISE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A DEEP TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. OUR CWA
IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN SW FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SURFACE RIDGING IS IN PLACE AND DRIER NORTH AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEAST BL FLOW IS UNDERCUTTING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS
INITIAL PRECIPITATION AND WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES MAY SNEAK INTO
THE SOUTH TONIGHT, MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY. AFTER THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND POTENTIALLY BEYOND THE WEEKEND (SOME VARIANCE IN CLUSTERS
BETWEEN RIDGING AND SW BY THIS WEEKEND). THE GENERAL TREND
SHOULD BE FOR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY FROM
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE 40S/LOWER 50S TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
HIGHS IN THE MID 50S/NEAR 60. SW FLOW ALOFT INHERENTLY BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER
DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE UPPER FLOW IN THE PLAINS AND
VARIANCE IN GUIDANCE RESOLVING ANY EMBEDDED WAVES CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION/IMPACTS IS LOW BEYOND TUESDAY.
..RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
A STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE ORGANIZES INTO A HYBRID TYPE SYSTEM
MONDAY WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING ACROSS OUR CWA SOUTH
TO NORTH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. INITIALLY DRIER
AIR IN NORTHEAST BL FLOW MAY DELAY MEASURABLE RAINFALL, HOWEVER
THE SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH WAA AND AT LEAST SOME 700MB
DEFORMATION BANDING WILL HELP SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND
PERIODS OF MODERATE (LOCALLY HEAVY) RAINFALL WOULD BE EXPECTED.
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH DOMINANT WAA PATTERNS, STRONGER
AREAS OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL TEND TO BE MORE TRANSIENT MAKING
COVERAGE OF HIGHER TOTALS 1"+ HARDER TO ANTICIPATE. BETTER
COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL TEND TO INITIALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2, THOUGH THE TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL
EVENTUALLY ALLOW RAIN TO OVERSPREAD NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL MN.
HIGH 24HR PROBABILITIES (60-80%) FOR 0.25" OR MORE RAINFALL ARE
SHOWN BY NBM ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN, WITH A
30-50% CHANCE IN SIMILAR AREAS FOR GREATER THAN 1" OF RAINFALL.
REGARDING SNOWFALL: AS WITH PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF GUIDANCE THE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY AT TIMES BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW, PARTICULARLY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER, AS HREF/REFS/NBM ALL SHOW A VERY WEAK SIGNAL,
WITH LIGHTER RATES THE CHANCE FOR ANY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE WILL BE
DIMINISHED DUE TO WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES. STILL, A FEW
NOVELTY SNOWFLAKES OR A LIGHT DUSTING ON GRASSY/ELEVATED
SURFACES MAY OCCUR (BEST CHANCE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY (NO
IMPACTS).
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH FAR LIKELY FALLING INTO MVFR CIGS
AND VIS BY THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD AS RAIN PUSHES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. BJI WILL ALSO SEE FALLING CIGS BUT LIKELY REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AND FALL INTO MVFR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER. WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AT OR UNDER 10 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST. RAIN WILL BE MUCH MORE
WIDESPREAD TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT
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