194
FXUS63 KFGF 012346
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
646 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD FROST AND AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGH WITHIN CANADA IS SPREADING ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION, WITH A FEED OF RELATIVELY DRY, CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
INFILTRATING INTO THE REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
OUR AREA AMID THIS DRY, COOLER AIR MASS. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
PREDOMINATELY CALM WINDS, IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD FROST AND
AREAS OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST, BUT EXPECTED TO OCCUR NEAR
SUNRISE STILL ALLOWING FOR FROST/FREEZE. URBAN LANDSCAPES MAY
NOT SEE FROST/FREEZING TEMPERATURES DUE TO LOCALLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES FROM URBAN HEAT ISLAND EFFECTS.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR FROST EXIST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR
ASCENT BRINGING A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WAVE IS
LIKELY TO BE DEVOID OF OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT, THUS RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE RATHER LOW - LESS THAN QUARTER OF
AN INCH. RAIN MAY COME IN TWO BOUTS - THE FIRST FRIDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS,
WITH THE SECOND BOUT MORE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IN TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THIS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF TREND IN TEMPERATURES TOWARD SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES; OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
VERY LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY TO IMPACT ANY TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET. A STEADY
SOUTHERLY WIND WILL DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 12
KNOTS AND GUSTS ARE NOT FORECASTED.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
NDZ008-014-016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-053.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
NDZ006-007-015-054.
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MNZ001>004-007-017-024-027>032-040.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MNZ005-006-008-009-013>016-022-023.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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