342  
FXUS63 KFGF 182107  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
407 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN  
FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR  
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL  
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 
- SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL DEGRADE AIR QUALITY  
SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS
 
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TODAY SHOWS ZONAL FLOW PATTERN OVER THE  
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS, WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE MID LAYER  
IMPULSE MOVING EAST OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  
THIS FORCING AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF  
MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL THAT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING EAST. IN ITS  
WAKE, BETWEEN 1.0 - 3.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL FELL BETWEEN THE US  
HIGHWAY 2 AND 200 CORRIDORS. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF  
OPPORTUNITY FOR INSTABILITY TO OVERLAP FORCING NEAR THE TRI-  
STATE AREA, BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS IN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST-CENTRAL  
MINNESOTA. MORE DETAILS ON THIS FOUND BELOW.  
 
AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE DEPARTS, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD  
INTO THE AREA. WITH TODAY'S WETTING/SOAKING RAINFALL SATURATING  
THE GROUND AND HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWING SURFACE INVERSION TO  
BUILD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
REGION. AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE ALSO POSSIBLE (40% CHANCE)  
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MID MORNING.  
 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING PROPAGATES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS  
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY. BRIEF  
PERIOD OF NORTHERN LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REINTRODUCE WILDFIRE  
SMOKE BACK INTO THE REGION STARTING SATURDAY, LASTING THROUGH AT  
LEAST SUNDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE TO LINGER EVEN  
FURTHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW.  
DEGRADED AIR QUALITY IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD, INCLUDING A  
PERIOD WHERE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO  
INCREASE RISK FOR ADVERSE HEALTH EFFECTS TO ALL POPULATION  
GROUPS.  
 
AS RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES EAST, IT IS REPLACED WITH SHALLOW  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL HELP RETURN RICHER MOISTURE BACK  
INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA BY LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. THE PATTERN REMAINS THIS WAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.  
EMBEDDED IMPULSES WITHIN THIS UPPER PATTERN WILL MEAN INCREASED  
CHANCE FOR A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN, WITH MULTIPLE  
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING LATE SUNDAY THROUGH  
AT LEAST TUESDAY. THIS INCLUDES THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS. MORE DETAILS ON THIS BELOW.  
   
.. ISOLATED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON
 
 
THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO SEE ISOLATED STRONG  
TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN FAR SOUTHERN  
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO LAKES COUNTRY OF WEST-CENTRAL MN AS  
FORCING FROM THE WAVE LINGERS IN THIS AREA POSSIBLY UTILIZING  
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY NOSING INTO THE AREA, JUXTAPOSED  
WITH STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR. MAIN SEVERE HAZARDS WOULD BE HAIL  
AND GUSTY WINDS, ALTHOUGH COULDN'T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A  
BRIEF TORNADO DUE TO RELATIVELY STRONG LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY  
AND SURFACE BOUNDARY AIDING IN AMBIENT VORTICITY TO STRETCH,  
SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP AND FOLLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CURRENT  
SATELLITE STILL INDICATES STRATUS IN THIS AREA WHICH WOULD FAVOR  
MORE ELEVATED STORMS FAVORING HAIL, ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL A  
LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR SURFACE BASE PARCELS WHICH WOULD INCREASE  
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADO. THIS WINDOW CLOSES AROUND 7 PM.  
   
.. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
 
 
WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR INCREASED CONVECTIVE  
ACTIVITY, AI GUIDANCE LIKE PANGU AND FENGWU ARE ALSO  
HIGHLIGHTING SEVERE PROBABILITIES INTO OUR AREA MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTIES ARE PLENTY IN DETAILS LIKE STORM MODE OR  
FRONTAL/BOUNDARY ORIENTATION AND LOCATION, LIMITING CONFIDENCE  
IN HAZARDS. GEFS PROBABILITIES OF SUPERCELL COMPOSITE GREATER  
THAN 1 ARE 70% OR HIGHER IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST-  
CENTRAL MN ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  
 
ADDITIONALLY, OTHER MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE FROM CSU ALSO  
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MONDAY AND TUESDAY (NAMELY  
UVFS-BASED). THIS IS SUPPORTED BY CONCEPTUAL MODEL OF LOW  
AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN, MULTIPLE WAVES, AND PWATS INTO THE 90TH  
PERCENTILE FOR OUR REGION.  
 
WHILE SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE IS RATHER MINIMAL AT THIS  
TIME, THIS IS LARGELY IN PART DUE TO LOW PREDICTABILITY, BUT  
CONCEPTUALLY THE PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR THIS OPPORTUNITY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 158 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
 
AVIATION IMPACTS THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z SATURDAY DUE TO LOW  
STRATUS AND FOG PUSHING INTO THE IFR TO POTENTIALLY LIFR  
CATEGORIES.  
 
THERE IS STILL LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH HAVE  
CONTRIBUTED TO SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO  
UNTIL AROUND 00Z.  
 
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS WILL LINGER WITHIN THE REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE FOG STARTS TO DEVELOP ACROSS  
THE REGION BETWEEN 03Z-15Z TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOG  
MAY BE DENSE, PERHAPS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD AT  
SOME LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM ON THE  
LOCATION OF THIS OCCURRING. CURRENTLY, SITS THAT HOLD AROUND 40%  
CHANCE OF SEEING DENSE FOG ARE KTVF, KGFK, KDVL, AND KBJI.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CJ  
AVIATION...CJ  
 
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