063
FXUS63 KFGF 290817
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
317 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED STORMS LATER TODAY. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT MONDAY: NOON TO 8PM FOR THE SOUTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAT IMPACTS MID-WEEK AND INTO THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL ND HAVE MOVED INTO THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN, WITH ONE PARTICULARLY STRONG SUPERCELL TRACKING
THROUGH THE AREA. CURRENTLY ON A DOWNWARD SWING IN STRENGTH, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD,
EXITING OFF INTO CANADA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OUR FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE SOME IMPACTS FROM A THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX COMING OUT OF SD, PROBABLY AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER THAT
ACTIVITY PASSES THROUGH, THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY FAILED TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS EASTERN
ND THIS EVENING THOUGH A CLUSTER IN CENTRAL ND MAY EVENTUALLY
PROPAGATE NE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN IF THEY BECOME MORE
SURFACE BASED IN FOLLOW THE BUNKERS RIGHT VECTOR. OTHERWISE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA UNTIL NEAR SUNRISE WHEN A
CLUSTER/LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA WITH WIND (POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IF YOU TRUST
SOLUTIONS LIKE THE HRRR) AND LARGE HAIL AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN BC/AB IS PROMOTING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST, WITH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS PATTERN IS
PROMOTING MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY OVER PORTIONS OF
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA, ALONG WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
AVAILABLE SHEAR TO ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEY DEVELOP.
THIS WILL PROVIDE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND/OR MONDAY. MORE DETAILS ON THESE BELOW.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAT RELATED IMPACTS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
VERY HIGH MOISTURE (UPPER 70S DEW POINTS) COMBINE WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S, PERHAPS LOW 90S, IN THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN. LATER IN THE WEEK,
ADDITIONAL HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS INCLUDES THE
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
..SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT
DESPITE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PARAMETER SPACING, THERE
IS A GENERAL LACK OF FOCUSED ASCENT TO SPARK AND SUSTAIN SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THUS, GENERAL TREND IN OUR MESSAGING HAS
BEEN TO OMIT SEVERE RISK FROM THIS AFTERNOON. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT, FOCUS FOR ASCENT MAY BECOME MORE PREVALENT NEAR
CENTRAL ND, PERHAPS ALLOWING SOME ISOLATED ELEVATED SUPERCELLS
INTO NORTHEAST ND EARLY TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLFBALL BEFORE QUICKLY PUSHING INTO
CANADA. COULDN'T RULE OUT SEVERE STORMS MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST ND
FROM SD LATE TONIGHT / EARLY MORNING MONDAY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR,
VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE, AS WELL
AS VERY GUSTY WINDS TO 80 MPH. THIS SCENARIO IS LOW IN
CONFIDENCE, HOWEVER.
..SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY
WHILE THERE IS A DEFT IN FEATURES TO HELP FORCE THUNDERSTORMS TO
LIFE TODAY, MUCH BETTER FORCING WILL COME TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS
A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WITHIN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS,
PROPAGATING NORTHWARD INTO CANADA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (COMPRISED OF SURFACE
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S) WILL LIKELY OVERSPREAD
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN. THIS
IS ALSO A RESULT OF THE JET ALOFT OVERSPREADING THESE REGIONS,
INCREASING OVERALL SHEAR.
LATEST GUIDANCE OFFERS A COUPLE OF SCENARIOS THAT COULD UNFOLD:
1) WELL DEVELOPED SEVERE STORMS MOVE OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
EASTERN ND TRAVELING NORTHEAST. THESE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL (PERHAPS VERY LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES)
AND GUSTY WINDS (PERHAPS VERY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 80 MPH). THESE
STORMS START ELEVATED IN ALTITUDE AND NATURE, BECOMING MORE
SURFACE BASED INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD EVENTUALLY
INTRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AMONG OTHER HAZARDS LIKE LARGE
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. GIVEN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
STRONG SHEAR, COULDN'T RULE OUT STRONG TORNADOES (EF-2+).
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE NORTH AND EAST LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.
2) OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN SD DIMINISH BEFORE REACHING
ND, ALLOWING A LULL PERIOD IN THE MORNING. THIS IS BEFORE
ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SURFACE LOW THAT
PROPAGATES NORTH THROUGH OUR AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REACH SEVERE THRESHOLDS, POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANTLY SEVERE - ESPECIALLY IF STORMS CAN REMAIN MORE
DISCRETE AND SURFACE BASED. THIS WOULD KEEP LARGE TO VERY LARGE
HAIL AND RISK FOR TORNADOES AT THE FOREFRONT OF HAZARDS, WITH AN
ATTENDANT ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND RISK AS WELL. IN THIS
SCENARIO, STRONG TORNADOES AGAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT (EF-2+).
AGAIN, BOTH SCENARIOS HOLD THE RISK FOR TORNADOES (POTENTIALLY
STRONG). AT THIS TIME, RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCE FOR TORNADOES
EXISTS NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WITHIN NORTHEAST
ND TO NORTHWEST MN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN OVERALL CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THAT
WOULD DICTATE STORM MODE AS WELL AS WHETHER OR NOT STORMS WOULD
BE MORE SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED. MORE ELEVATED STORMS WOULD
HAVE A HAIL-FORWARD HAZARD, WHEREAS SURFACE BASED STORMS WOULD
ALLOW FOR ALL HAZARDS.
AVIATION /03Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 958 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
TAFS WILL QUICKLY GET UGLY TONIGHT AND KEEPING THEM ACCURATE FOR
THE 24 HR PERIOD IN 6 LINES OR LESS IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE.
NEVERTHELESS WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION TOMORROW FROM 15Z TO 00Z. THE PROBLEM IS THERE WILL
BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS WITH SOME SITES BE AFFECTED AND OTHERS NOT
MAKING PREDICTING TIMING AND LOCATION A FUTILE EFFORT AT THIS
POINT. BEST RECOMMENDATION FOR THOSE PLANNING ON FLYING IS NOT
NOT MAKE DECISIONS MORE THAN 8 HOURS OUT IF YOU DONT HAVE TO.
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY 06Z FOR ALL SITES MOST LIKELY AND
PATCHY IFR MAY BE PRESENT BY THEN AS WELL. LIFR REMAINS POSSIBLE
FOR DVL AND BJI OVERNIGHT. WINDS GUSTING OVER TO OR SLIGHTLY
OVER 30KTS APPEAR LIKELY FOR KFAR FROM 20Z TO 01Z ON MONDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A PRIMARY DRIVER OF OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS
(CEILINGS AND WIND SPEED/DIRECTION) THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ039-053.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ002-003-024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...JR/TT
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...TT
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