430
FXUS63 KFGF 020248
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
948 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY
MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE
CONDITIONS SLOWLY CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE
30S OVERNIGHT, WITH A FEW AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
REACHING THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT WINDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL MN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE DOWN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS.
AS WE LOOSE SUNSHINE, INSTABILITY, AND LIFT LATER THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DIMINISH AND
LINGERING SHOWERS PERSIST. OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY DRY
OUT AND SKIES CLEAR OUT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP TO THE UPPER
30S IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND THE LOW TO MID 30S CLOSER
TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY DENSE
FOG WITHIN NORTH CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
REACH NEAR ZERO AND WINDS GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS AN H5 UPPER LOW MOVES VERY
SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH RAIN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST. RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY,
THEN DRIFTS EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF A
DEEP H5 UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
ENSEMBLES STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THIS UPPER LOW AS IT GETS CUT OFF
FROM THE FLOW PATTERN HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH, A RANGE
OF SCENARIOS EXISTS REGARDING POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION, WITH
SEVERAL MEMBERS BRINGING WAVES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD, THERE
IS A WEAK SIGNAL FOR ADDITIONAL RIDGING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST; HOWEVER, THIS WILL LARGELY
DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CUTOFF LOW AS IT TRAVERSES THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU MAY 1 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
DOWN THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. THIS AFFECTS TVF, GFK,
AND FAR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. GUSTY WINDS AND ERRATIC
WIND DIRECTION CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE AROUND THE THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON
BEFORE A SWITCH TOWARD THE NORTH WEST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
SLOWLY LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH SKC TO FEW BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR ALL SITES
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE POTENTIAL EXEMPTION OF BJI
OVERNIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE LOW CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT THAT MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A FEW MILES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...SPENDER
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...SPENDER
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