798
FXUS63 KFGF 292335
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEST OF THE RED RIVER.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- NOT AS HOT OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE RIDGE CONTINUES OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES STARTING TO COME UP INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE
WEST SIDE OF IT. THE MAIN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO WY AND THEN MT OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVES PUSHING INTO THE RIDGE WILL GAIN
STRENGTH AND HEIGHTS IN THE RIDGE WILL START TO COME DOWN, WITH
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND MONDAY/TUESDAY. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS COMES
EAST WEDNESDAY, WITH A LOT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN IF THE MAIN
ENERGY GOES THROUGH THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES IN CANADA OR THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN THE CONUS. THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY WITH NEAR ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY
FRIDAY.
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...
SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS SOME 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. EVEN HIGHER CAPE OVER THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS REGION, BUT THAT AREA IS ALSO UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH TO DEVELOP THERE. SOUTHEASTERN ND ON THE OTHER
HAND, HAS A WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. A FEW CELLS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SD BORDER,
BUT WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MINIMAL DO NOT EXPECT THEM TO LAST TOO
LONG. MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND SOME ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING,
MAINLY STAYING WEST OF THE RED RIVER ALTHOUGH A FEW CELLS COULD
STRAY INTO MN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW AND SUNDAY, WITH GREATEST INTENSITY OVER
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND FAR WESTERN PLAINS WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DON'T
REALLY PUSH EAST UNTIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO MT AND STRONGER LEAD SHORTWAVES COMING OUT.
INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES FURTHER OUT INTO OUR CWA BY THAT POINT,
ALTHOUGH ON MONDAY THE DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS VERY WEAK.
BETTER SHEAR AND POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY, BUT PREDICTABILITY PRETTY LOW BY THAT POINT.
..TEMPERATURES FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST STARTING TO BREAK DOWN AND
SOME SHORTWAVES STARTING TO BRING SOME CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A BIT MORE MODERATE AND TOP OUT IN THE 80S INSTEAD OF
THE 90S OVER THE WEEKEND. ECMWF EFI STILL SHOWS A WARMER THAN
USUAL TEMPERATURE SIGNAL, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. TEMPS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE JUST ABOVE
AVERAGE INSTEAD OF WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES AND NEARING
RECORDS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
SHOWERS WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
TONIGHT, BUT CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS MAY EXTEND A BIT PAST THE END OF THE CURRENT PROB30S
TIMING, BUT THAT CAN BE REFINED IN THE NEXT ITERATION OF TAFS
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS. WINDS, AFTER BECOMING VRB OVERNIGHT,
WILL REGAIN THEIR SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR SATURDAY, SUSTAINED
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AT
KFAR AND KDVL. MORE SPOTTY SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP VERY LATE IN THE
TAF PERIOD, BUT LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THEM IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AROUND THEIR DEVELOPMENT AT ANY ONE
LOCATION.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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