008
FXUS63 KFGF 232327
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
NEAR DAILY RECORDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND MOVING
EAST, WITH RIDGING UPSTREAM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE ESTABLISHMENT
OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN AN
OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN. ENSEMBLES SHOW STRONG CONSENSUS IN
SOME FORM OF RIDGING HOLDING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND OR EVEN INTO
THE WEEK AFTER, WITH MORE SPREAD IN CLUSTERS RELATED TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGHING OVER
THE PACIFIC NW AND HOW THAT EVOLVES. THE SCENARIOS THAT SUPPORT
THE RIDGE WEAKENING IN THE WEST FASTER ALLOW FOR A SHIFT TOWARDS
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION,
WHICH BRINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER (STILL ABOVE AVERAGE) TEMPERATURES,
AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER (DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES) AND A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
A STRONGER RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND (FAVORED BY MORE CLUSTERS)
KEEPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO RECENT RAINS ON
WHETHER THEY HAVE A POSITIVE INFLUENCE LONGER TERM ON FUELS AND
GREEN-UP.
..THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT
FROM THE WEST THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION THAT MAY ALLOW FOR A WEAK
MOUNTAIN WAVE/SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PROPAGATE ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER LATE SUNDAY. EARLIER TIMING AS NAM AND SOME CAMS SHOW WOULD
SUPPORT A WINDOW WHERE AT LEAST SOME FORCING ALIGNS WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN OUR NORTH DURING PEAK
HEATING. STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULT IN AT LEAST A
WINDOW WHERE ELEVATED CAPE AND DCAPE 1000 J/KG+ COULD DEVELOP WHILE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES EXCEED 30KT+. UNCERTAINTY RISES FROM THE
AMOUNT OF DRY MID AND LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE, ALONG WITH VARIABLE
TIMING OF THIS WEAK WAVE/FEATURE. A FEW STRONG GUSTS OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE GUSTS MAY BE THE MAIN THREAT OUTSIDE OF SMALLER HAIL AND
LIGHTNING IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP DURING THE FAVORABLE WINDOW
(4PM-9PM).
..HOT/SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
THERE IS MINIMAL SPREAD IN GUIDANCE REGARDING HIGHS WITH EVEN THE
25TH PERCENTILE OF NBM GUIDANCE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. 50TH PERCENTILE VALUES ARE ALREADY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF DAILY RECORDS ON MEMORIAL DAY AND ON TUESDAY ARE AT
OR ABOVE (DAILY RECORDS GENERALLY 90-93F). TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, THOUGH NOT
QUIET AS WARM LATE WEEK (INCREASING SPREAD DUE TO LESS CERTAINTY
OF RIDGE STRENGTH).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS HAVE ALREADY
GONE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT SEVERAL TERMINALS ACROSS THE AREA,
AS HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION. THESE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY PICK UP A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 12
KNOTS THROUGHOUT SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE TWO REMAINING AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TAF
FORECAST. THE FIRST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT, THE SECOND BEING ROUGE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES CARRY VERY LOW
PREDICTABILITY AT ALL TERMINALS. THEREFORE, LEFT ANY MENTION OF
EITHER OUT OF THIS SET OF TAFS. TERMINALS WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCE OF SEEING FOG TONIGHT INCLUDE KGFK, KTVF AND KBJI.
TERMINALS WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
SUNDAY INCLUDE KDVL, KGFK AND KTVF. FUTURE ITERATIONS OF THE
TAFS CAN DETERMINE IF THERE IS ENOUGH PREDICTABILITY IN EITHER
HAZARD OCCURING TO ADD IT INTO THE TAFS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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