350
FXUS63 KFGF 311755
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1155 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY MIX CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCED AT TIMES TO NEAR 1 MILE AS NORTH
WINDS INCREASE AND COMBINE WITH FALLING SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL RANGE FROM A DUSTING TO JUST UNDER 2 INCHES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
MOST OF THE LIGHT SNOW IN WEST CENTRAL MN HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT KEPT SOME FLURRY MENTION FROM THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN FOR SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS A BIT BREEZY AND A FEW SPOTS WITH SOME
BLOWING SNOW BUT MOSTLY IN THE 2-5SM RANGE WITH A FEW SPOTS TO A
MILE OR LESS FOR A SHORT TIME. WILL INCLUDE IN A GRAPHICAST BUT
NOT IMPACTFUL ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT. SOME
BREAKING UP OF CLOUDS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, AND SHOULD SEE A
TINY BIT OF SUN IN SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE COMES IN TONIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN RRV AND WEST CENTRAL
MN. ADJUSTED POPS FOR CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, BUT SHOULD SEE SNOW
TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LET THE ADVISORY DROP AT 9 AM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL IN NARROW BANDS THIS
MORNING. MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS AND TIMING. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS, VISIBILITY
IS GENERALLY IN THE 1-2 MILE RANGE WHERE WE ARE SEEING WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTH. AS SUNRISE APPROACHES, VISIBILITY
COULD FALL AS LOW AS 1/2 MILE IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED OVERNIGHT
SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN COUNTRY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..SYNOPSIS
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST H5 FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SHARP THERMAL
GRADIENT EXISTS ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL
ALBERTA, SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO TRAVERSE THE FLOW PATTERN, BRINGING REGULAR CHANCES FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND/OR WINTRY MIX TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES SHOW
STRONG AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE PATTERN, BUT DISAGREE ABOUT THE
TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES TRAVERSING THE PATTERN. A STRONG HUDSON
BAY LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED COLD AIR INTO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN,
THUS SUPPORTING THE CONTINUATION OF SHARP THERMAL GRADIENTS ACROSS
THE AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY DEPENDS ON THE INTERMITTENT
CONVERGENCE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE, STREAMING INTO THE NORTHERN US
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. LARGE SCALE MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS GENERALLY NOT WELL SUPPORTED IN THIS SCENARIO, THUS ANY SYSTEMS
BRINGING SNOW TO THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOWER SNOWFALL
TOTALS. WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, LARGE SWINGS IN TEMPS ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE, WITH MUCH WARMER AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND VERY COLD
AIR SITUATED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
..LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING
SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST BANDS ARE SUPPORTED
ALONG AN AREA OF WEAK FGEN, STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL CAVALIER COUNTY
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO
MINNESOTA. SNOWFALL RATES HAVE BEEN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE;
HOWEVER, IMPACTS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN AMPLIFIED BY ANTECEDENT
FREEZING DRIZZLE. VISIBILITY HAS BEEN RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 MILES
WHERE SNOW IS THE HEAVIEST. MOST OF THE HEAVIER PRECIP IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID TO LATE MORNING, WITH LINGERING
FLURRIES AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
SOME LINGERING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW TAKING VISIBILITY DOWN AT
SOME AIRPORTS TO 2-5SM, WITH A FEW SPOTS LIKE KBJI AND KFAR
SEEING VIS DOWN TO 1SM AT TIMES. THESE RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WINDS
START TO COME DOWN, AND THERE COULD BE A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. THAT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGING MVFR CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW MOVES IN LATE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AT THIS POINT, KEPT ALL VIS ABOVE
2 MILES, BUT DEPENDS ON WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS SET UP SO
WILL MONITOR. WINDS THAT ARE GUSTING ABOVE 25 KTS AT SOME
LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE A DROP OFF IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL RETURN TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/JR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...JR
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