919
FXUS63 KFGF 210810
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
310 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEAR THE FORECAST AREA INTO
NEXT WEEK, MOVING A BIT NORTH AND SOUTH AS SYSTEMS MOVE THRU
SOUTHERN CANADA. COOLER NORTH AND MUCH MILDER SOUTH. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING WITH IMPACTS BEING VERY
LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SURFACE LOW IS NOTED JUST SOUTHWEST OF BOTTINEAUAT 0745Z.
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SOUTH OF THE
LOW OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST TO JUST NORTH OF GRAND FORKS BY 12Z. WARM ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION MOVING THRU SOUTHERN MANITOBA....WITH LIGHT RAIN
WINNIPEG AND SOUTH AND LIGHT RAIN IS OBSERVED AT PEMBINA,
CAVALIER AND HALLOCK. THIS LIGHT RAIN MOVES EAST-SOUTHEAST EARL
THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN NON-FREEZING AS TEMPS ARE A FEW
DEGREE ABOVE 32F. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST WINDS TURN NORTH-
NORTHWEST AND COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH MID TO LATE MORNING
IN THE NORTH AND MID TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH. TONIGHT
SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM A SEPARATE UPPER WAVE
MOVING QUICKLY EAST FROM WASHINGTON STATE. TEMPS SUGGEST LIGHT
RAIN AS PRECIP EXISTS BEFORE TEMPS DROP BELOW 32F.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
..SYNOPSIS
EXPANSIVE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF CONUS LEAVES THIS FA
RIDING THE JET, WITH WEAK WAVES PASSING THROUGH. ONE WAVE CAME
THROUGH LAST NIGHT, ANOTHER WEAK ONE TODAY, AND YET ANOTHER WILL
TONIGHT. IMPACTS FROM EACH DISTURBANCE HAVE BEEN LIMITED. AS
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
A MIX OF ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY. WITH A RETURN TO MORE ZONAL
FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR SUNDAY. RIDING THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE THROUGH NEXT WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL CONSTANTLY BE UP
AND DOWN. THE NBM SHOWS HOW WE ARE TRULY RIDING THE LINE, WITH
THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUTINELY
BEING 10 OR MORE DEGREES APART. ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT A
STRONGER SYSTEM TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THE
VAST MAJORITY KEEP THE BEST FORCING IN CANADA, WHICH WOULD KEEP
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH. PRECIPITATION OR NOT, A
BREEZY PERIOD NEXT THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY SOME SORT OF COOL DOWN
SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE EXPECTATION.
..FOG, WARMTH AND WINTRY MIX ON SATURDAY
A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT WILL SPARK OFF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DEEP WARM LAYER, WHICH SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION AS RAIN.
THE ONE CAVEAT IS SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH MAY BRIEFLY BE
NEAR FREEZING AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS. IF TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING, AN EXTREMELY BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING
RAIN WOULD OCCUR. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS MORE AND MORE UNLIKELY
WITH EACH PASSING MODEL RUN. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, A
STILL MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIGHT WINDS UP TO 900 MB SHOULD
PROMOTE AT LEAST POCKETS OF FOG TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS ARE ALONG US HIGHWAY 2 NORTH TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WEST OF THE FORESTS OF MN. AREAS IN
SOUTHEASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN DO NOT LOOK TO HAVE AS MUCH
MOISTURE WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, ALONG WITH A TOUCH HIGHER
WINDS OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL VARY WIDELY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
925 MB TEMPERATURES OF 15C AND 850 MB VALUES AROUND 13C GIVES
SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN ND. SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MIXING, UP TO 850 MB OR
EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER. ADDED TOGETHER, SOUTHERN AREAS ARE LIKELY
TO SEE THEIR FIRST 70 DEGREE READINGS OF THE YEAR. FURTHER
NORTH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM, BUT REMNANT SNOWPACK AND A
LITTLE CAA BEHIND THE OVERNIGHT WAVE WILL PROMOTE HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S. BETWEEN THE WARMTH IN THE SOUTH AND COLD
IN THE NORTH, A MASSIVE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL EXIST BETWEEN
US HIGHWAY 2 AND I-94. ALONG HIGHWAY 2, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR 50. ALONG I-94, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. WHILE WARM FOR MID MARCH, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THEN FORECASTED AFTERNOON
HIGHS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
MID LEVEL CLOUDS (8000-12000 FT AGL) ARE HAVING AN IMPACT ON
LIMITING RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN. LIGHTER FOG (3-6SM) HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION (MAINLY NORTHEAST ND/FAR NORTHWEST MN) THE CHANCES FOR
IFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DIMINISHED AND AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
DEVELOPS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MIXING MAY
FURTHER LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN LIGHT FOG. SOME GUIDANCE
STILL SHOWS A WINDOW FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AT KGFK AND KDVL
(09-15Z), HOWEVER CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS MUCH LOWER BASED
ON CURRENT TRENDS.
FOR THE REST OF SATURDAY: WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
THEN NORTH AN INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR STRATUS IS LIKELY TO
OVERSPREAD EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN BEHIND IT WHICH WOULD
THEN LINGER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT ALSO BRINGS A LOW
CHANCE (20%) FOR A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX WHICH MAY INCLUDE BRIEF
FREEZING RAIN (AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LOW), THOUGH VIRGA IS MORE
LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...DJR
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