507
FXUS63 KFGF 132320
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
620 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-FREEZING TEMPERATURES, AS LOW AS 29 DEGREES, ARE EXPECTED WEST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
-DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER.
-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, ALLOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 40S OVERNIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB
INTO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR RETURNS HEADING INTO
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. NEARLY ZONAL H5 FLOW
PREVAILS AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH UPPER FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST, THEN
NORTH BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST. A SURGE OF
COOLER AIR BRINGS OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES IN THE MID 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES.
..FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING
EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE AREA.
WITH SUFFICIENT CLEARING, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES; HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH CLEARING WE WILL SEE. IF CLOUDS ARE
SLOWER TO CLEAR, TEMPERATURES WILL RUN WARM ENOUGH TO STAY ABOVE
FREEZING.
..ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. HEADING INTO FRIDAY, RH VALUES FALL
INTO THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING HEADING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF COMBINED WINDS AND
LOW RH VALUES, ALTHOUGH SUPPORTING SCENARIOS ARE FEWER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE TIMING OF THE FRONT
AS CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS ADDED SUBSTANTIAL FORWARD SPEED, THUS
SLIGHTLY REDUCING THE FIRE RISK.
..TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
COLD AIR ADVECTION FOLLOWS THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY SYSTEM, BRINGING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS. WE
ARE STILL WATCHING FOR A SCENARIO WITH MORE CLOUD COVER, WHICH
SERVES TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHTLY HIGHER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP. IT IS ALSO
WORTH NOTING THAT WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, WHICH
COULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST
MN, WITH THE BACK EDGE OVER FAR WESTERN ND. A SHIFT IN DRIER BL
FLOW DOES EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE KDVL REGION AFTER 09Z, BUT
THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE SLOWER THAN WHAT MORE
OPTIMISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES BASED ON RECENT TRENDS. IN ANY
CASE, VFR SHOULD EVENTUALLY RETURN WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH IT MAY BE MORE TOWARDS MID TO LATE MORNING IN EASTERN ND
AND IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON (OR EARLY EVENING) ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN. THIS TIMING FOLLOWS THE TRENDS OF SLOWER GUIDANCE
THAT HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE PATTERN A BIT BETTER.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT, THEN
VARIABLE 5KT OR LESS AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH
THE REGION WEDNESDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
014-015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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