686  
FXUS63 KFGF 230545  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1145 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
FOG HAS REMAINED IN PLACE BUT CLOUDS MOVING INTO NW MN IS AIDING  
IN GETTING RID OF THE FOG IN HALLOCK AND THEY ARE MOVING INTO  
THIEF RIVER TOO... LOW CLOUDS FORMING IN CLEARING AREAS EAST OF  
THE RRV SO OVERALL THINK FOG AREAS WILL REMAIN LIMITED TO SOME  
DEGREE TO THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RRV.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
LIGHT FLURRIES RESULTING FROM WEAK BROAD SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED  
WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD  
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MN. TO THE WEST ACROSS  
CENTRAL ND, BROAD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE HAS ALLOWED CLEARING  
SKIES THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
 
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SECOND CLOUD BANK, CURRENTLY OVER FAR  
WESTERN ND, MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO  
WEAK MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED  
OUT UNDER THIS CLOUD BANK, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVE  
DISAGREEMENT IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE OF FLURRY  
POTENTIAL.  
 
AREAS THAT DO NOT SEE MUCH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT, MAINLY OVER  
NORTHWEST MN, MAY SEE LOWS DROP DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW  
ZERO. OTHERWISE, OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO  
ARE EXPECTED.  
 
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY  
MORNING AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 20S FOR MUCH  
OF EASTERN ND WITH UPPER TEENS ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. BESIDES THE  
POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING FLURRIES TOMORROW MORNING, RELATIVELY  
BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. THE  
ARCTIC FRONT (SEE EXTENDED DISCUSSION) WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE  
DEVILS LAKE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 232 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL  
FOR GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY  
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY HAZARDOUS  
WIND CHILLS. ADDITIONALLY, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN  
THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY OF  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...  
 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A UPPER LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A  
STRONG HUDSON LOW. AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS  
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERRITORIES OF  
CANADA WITH SURFACE OBS SHOWING A FRIGID AIRMASS UNDER THIS FEATURE.  
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVER THE  
CANADIAN ROCKIES TO FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE CANADIAN LOW  
AND ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL INDUCE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WIND AS  
IT PUSHES SOUTHWARD INTO THE ND/MN REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND  
THURSDAY MORNING.  
 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 25 KNOTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF  
EASTERN ND WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE RED  
RIVER VALLEY THANKS TO FAVORABLE TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS. NEARLY DRY  
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES INDUCED BY STRONG LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION  
WILL ALLOW VERTICAL MIXING UP TO 900MB PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS,  
TAPPING IN TO A 35-40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG  
WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE VALLEY.  
 
THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CAUSE BLOWING SNOW AND SUBSEQUENT REDUCTIONS  
IN VISIBILITY. WHITE OUT CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OPEN COUNTRY  
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND  
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE RED RIVER  
VALLEY.  
 
WINDS, AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW, ARE EXPECTED TO  
GRADUALLY DIE DOWN BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AS COLD AIR MOVES IN  
BEHIND THE FRONT, WIND CHILL VALUES DOWN TO -35 F WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLES INTO PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO  
FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE -15 TO -25 RANGE BY  
FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE -30 TO -45 RANGE.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...  
 
FOLLOWING THIS SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ON THURSDAY, A BAROCLINIC ZONE IS  
EXPECTED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE DAKOTAS DELINEATING THE  
COLDER ARCTIC AIRMASS OVER THE MIDWEST FROM THE SLIGHTLY WARMER  
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS TO THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF THIS BAROCLINIC  
ZONE AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR A COUPLE  
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS  
AS TO THE DEVELOPMENT, TIMING, AND PLACEMENT OF A STRONG CANADIAN  
CLIPPER ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM  
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND SOME  
BLOWING SNOW, THOUGH THE EXACT DETAILS SUCH AS SNOW AMOUNTS,  
PLACEMENT, TIMING, AND WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
AVIATION QUITE CHAOTIC FOR NW MN THRU WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AREAS  
OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL OCCUR. CLEARER GFK/DVL/FAR AREAS AND DO  
NOT EXPECT FOG TO ANY DEGREE TO FORM...BUT SOME CLOUDS WILL MOVE  
IN BY MORNING (VFR MAYBE MVFR). FOR THE MOST PART LOWER END VFR  
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY DAYTIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL RACE  
SOUTH LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND HIGHER IN  
THE RRV AND E ND ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT REDUCED VSBYS IN BLOWING  
SNOW.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY  
MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-  
052>054.  
 
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY  
MORNING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029-030-040.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...RIDDLE  
SHORT TERM...AM  
LONG TERM...AM  
AVIATION...RIDDLE  
 
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