798
FXUS63 KFGF 231149
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
649 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND 70 MPH
WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE.
- INCREASING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR HEAT
IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN MESSAGING, OTHER THAN UPDATING SEVERE RISK
GRAPHIC FOR FRIDAY. HOTTEST DAY ON SUNDAY AND THAT IS THE DAY
WHEN WIDESPREAD HEAT IMPACTS ARE MORE LIKELY. SOUNDINGS IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEY FOR 21Z FRIDAY INDICATE A CAP IN PLACE WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CIN, ESPECIALLY 00Z GFS. SO THAT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH TO SEE HOW IT CHANGES AND ITS AFFECT ON T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CWA
TODAY WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS TO PICK UP. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER COULD BRING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS IN OUR FAR NORTHERN TIER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER, AN EVEN STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON FRIDAY
SHOULD PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS INTO THE CWA ON FRIDAY. NOT
MUCH COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AS UPPER RIDGING
TAKES OVER.
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT FEW DAYS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. DEW POINTS TOMORROW WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT WITH WARMER TEMPS THERE COULD BE
SEVERAL SPOTS THAT DROP BELOW 30 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
WHILE WINDS WILL BE HIGHER THAN TODAY, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE MUCH ABOVE 15 MPH AND THINK THAT CHANCES FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE LOW, ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS COULD
GET NEAR CRITICAL. HIGHER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, BUT DEW
POINTS WILL ALSO BE HIGHER. THE HDW INDEX IS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 75TH PERCENTILE FOR FRIDAY, BUT AGAIN, IT LOOKS MORE NEAR
CRITICAL THAN RED FLAG.
..MARGINAL RISK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE, ALONG
WITH GOOD DESTABILIZATION OVER 2000 J/KG AND SHEAR OVER 40 KTS,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP. 700MB TEMPS
CLIMB UP INTO THE 12 TO 14 C RANGE, AND THE STRONGEST VORTICITY
ADVECTION LOOKS TO BE UP IN CANADA. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS, SO MENTION OF A 1 OUT OF 5 RISK CONTINUES
TO BE REASONABLE.
..HEAT THIS WEEKEND
THE 590DM HEIGHTS PUSH INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND THIS WEEKEND. ECWMF
EFI ARE UP TO 95TH PERCENTILE FOR MAXT ON SUNDAY. WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY, THE DEW POINTS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS HIGH AS OUR LAST HEAT EVENT. BUT STILL UP INTO THE 60S,
WHICH WILL PUSH OUR HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA ABOVE 100 DEGREES. TOO SOON FOR ANY HEAT HEADLINES, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU JUL 23 2026
VFR TODAY WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND 10-20 KTS DEVELOPING BY
LATE MORNING AND LASTING INTO TONIGHT. GUSTS 25 KTS AT TIMES IN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS AND SOME MID
CLOUDS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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