752
FXUS63 KFGF 211156
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
556 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINTER
IMPACTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
A BIT OF CLEARING CURRENTLY BETWEEN WEAK SHORTWAVES, BUT MORE
CLOUD COVER STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
ANOTHER VORT LOBE COMING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER TODAY, BRINGING YET MORE CLOUDS AND A
FEW ISOLATED FLURRIES.
AFTER SOME RIDGING INTO MONDAY, THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT ON A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH AT LEAST OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES
FOR TUESDAY. A CLUSTER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE THROUGH HOT ON ITS HEELS AND FURTHER SOUTH FOR
WEDNESDAY, BUT OTHER CLUSTERS HAVE NOTHING AND THERE ISN'T A
VERY STRONG SIGNAL FOR WET/SNOWY CONDITIONS FROM THE ECWMF EFI.
AT THIS POINT, CHANCES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS STILL LOOK
AROUND 20 PERCENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SLOWLY WEAKENING BEFORE BEING SWEPT EAST BY A TROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
SATURDAY EVENING, THEN DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LOOK FOR MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS AND MORNING LOW TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO FOR MOST AREAS. TEMPS REBOUND MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.
THIS WILL BRING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF SNOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM;
HOWEVER, DUE TO A LARGE DEGREE OF ENSEMBLE VARIANCE, THERE IS LITTLE
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED. FURTHER INTO NEXT
WEEK, THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION AS LOW
LEVEL WESTERLIES BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
..POTENTIAL FOR SNOW NEXT WEEK
LOOKING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS INTO EASTERN
MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AN ELONGATED AREA OF
FGEN WILL FORM ALONG THE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WHERE THE BAND FORMS. ENSEMBLES SHOW VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SPATIAL AGREEMENT, WITH A LARGE NUMBER OF
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS TO SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THE ONE THING
THAT IS CONSISTENT, HOWEVER, IS THAT WHERE THE BAND FORMS, THERE
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER IMPACTS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES WITH SOME CIRRUS AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK REINFORCING SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. A FEW SOLUTIONS ALSO PUT OUT A FEW FLURRIES BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY, EVENTUALLY PICKING UP WITH GUSTS CLOSE TO
20 KTS IN SOME SPOTS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...JR
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