622  
FXUS63 KFGF 282341  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
541 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
STATIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ARE STILL SEEING SOME LIGHT  
SNOW AND FOG, WITH OCCASIONAL VISIBILITIES AROUND 2 MILES. THE  
BAND IS MOVING EASTWARD PRETTY QUICKLY, SO STILL ONLY EXPECTING A  
DUSTING AT MOST. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO GO WITH A HIGH POP/LOW  
QPF SCENARIO, BUT THINK THE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD EXIT OUR EASTERN FA  
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. BEHIND THAT, THERE IS A MIX OF CLOUDS  
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SPOTS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
IMPACT POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS LOW, WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT  
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT INTO THE  
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE TEENS, WITH HIGHS IN THE  
20S FOR TUESDAY. WEST WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE  
SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 TO 15  
MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY  
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TONIGHT AND INTO  
THE PRE-DAWN HOURS TUESDAY. CAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO  
TUESDAY EVENING, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW  
TEENS TUESDAY NIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
WE WILL SEE A SHIFT FROM NW FLOW TO ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE  
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. A RIDGE BEGINS TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL  
UNITED STATES PUSHING WARMER AIR INTO OUR REGION CHANGING FLOW FROM  
NW TO ZONAL BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES REACH THE TEENS TO 20S  
WEDNESDAY, BUT RISE INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT WILL BE A CHILLY MORNING AS THURSDAY LOWS  
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.  
 
THIS IS ALL SHORT LIVED AS A SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NW  
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY BRINGING SNOW CHANCES TO THE AREA BY FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THAT ZONAL  
FLOW AND PICKS UP MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THE RIDGE IN THE  
SOUTH HELPS TO KEEP THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE OUT OF OUR REGION  
BLOCKING THE SYSTEM FROM TAPPING INTO IT. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND LIFT  
ACCOMPANIES THE SYSTEM TO BRING US LIGHT SNOW. GUIDANCE INDICATES  
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, WITH GREATER THAN AN INCH SITTING AROUND 50-70%  
FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I94. AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 2 HAVE THE  
HIGHEST CHANCE TO SEE UP TO 2 INCHES. ANYTHING GREATER THAN 4 INCHES  
REMAIN LOW <10%. THE SYSTEM WOULD NEED TO INGEST FURTHER MOISTURE  
FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF MEXICO TO INCREASE THOSE CHANCES. TRACK  
OF THE SNOW REMAINS LOWER IN CONFIDENCE AS GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO  
PLACE IT SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE SD BORDER AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER  
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT 500MB. AS OF  
RIGHT NOW WE CAN SAY THERE WILL BE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST MINOR IMPACTS  
FROM THE SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  
 
ONE THING TO NOTE IS THE STRONG PULL OF NW FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM  
WITH DROPPING TEMPERATURES AT THE 850MB LEVEL, INDICATING STRONG CAA  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THIS COULD BRING HIGHER WIND GUST POTENTIAL  
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OUT OF THE REGION. HIGHER WIND GUSTS, WITH  
FALLING SNOW COULD BRING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES BUT HOW  
REDUCED IS UNCERTAIN. OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE IS NOTED BY THE  
WEEKEND, WITH ZONAL TO NW FLOW BRINGING COOLER MORNING LOWS IN THE  
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.  
LOOKS LIKE A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS TO SET UP FOR THE 1ST  
PART OF DECEMBER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON NOV 28 2022  
 
THIS IS A SOMEWHAT TRICKY AVIATION FORECAST, MAINLY DUE TO CLOUD  
COVER. TO START, THE LIGHT SNOW AND FOG AFFECTING KBJI SHOULD EXIT  
OFF TO THE EAST FAIRLY QUICKLY. BEHIND THAT, THERE WILL BE A MIX  
OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, MAINLY LOW END VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS  
WILL TAKE ON MORE OF A WEST TO SOUTHWEST COMPONENT OVERNIGHT, BUT  
THEY WILL REMAIN STEADY (NOT LIGHTEN UP). BY MID TO LATE TUESDAY  
MORNING, THEY WILL SHIFT MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST, AND BECOME GUSTY  
AGAIN. CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO THICKEN UP AGAIN, WITH SOME MVFR  
CEILINGS SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GODON  
SHORT TERM...LYNCH  
LONG TERM...SPENDER  
AVIATION...GODON  
 
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