257
FXUS63 KFGF 091004
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
404 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TODAY SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AS TEMPS AROUND
OR ABOVE FREEZING.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MN THURSDAY. IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL AS HIGHER CHANCES
ARE TO OUR SOUTH.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..SYNOPSIS
AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAKING EAST FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA
THROUGH SOUTHERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. AND
THIS ZONE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE DAY.
THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF 700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THAT
MOVE EAST, MAIN PERIOD IS MID AFTN AHEAD OF 500 MB SHORT WAVE IN
IDAHO THAT MOVES THRU NORTHERN SD. DID MAINTAIN POPS FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTN FOR THIS IN SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN. BUT OVERALL LAYER BENEATH 800 MB IS QUITE DRY, AND
MOISTURE AT 850 MB IS NARROW ZONE MORE SO IN FAR NORTHERN SD.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES OF WHERE THE PRECIP IS MOVING THRU SUGGEST
TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING DURING ANY PRECIPITATION AND LIQUID
RAIN. AHEAD OF ALL THIS IS SOME SPRINKLES MOVING QUICKLY EAST
THRU WEST CENTRAL MN ROTHSAY TO PERHAM AT 09Z. IT IS MOVING
QUICKLY AND IS PRODUCING A TRACE AMOUNT OF LIQUID PER NDAWN. IT
IS IN AN AREA OF TEMPS 31-33 DEGREES SO SOME CONCERN OF ICING
BUT QUICK MOVEMENT WOULD SUGGEST VERY BRIEF PRECIP PERIOD.
PERHAM MN RAILROAD CAM INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES AT 0947Z AND TEMP
AT 31. WILL MONITOR BUT AT THIS TIME IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SEEING SOMETHING SIMILAR WEST OF JAMESTOWN BUT
TEMPS THERE AROUND 40. ANOTHER LIVE STREAM CAM ON OTTERTAIL LAKE
SHOWS FLURRIES.
AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MN BY
TONIGHT....LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NW ONTARIO. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE LOW AND A BIT COLDER AIR
MASS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN LATER
TODAY AND THRU THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH COLDER TEMPS ON TUESDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP FOR LIGHT SNOW IN FAR NW MN AS MOISTURE
DOES SPREAD SOUTHEAST AROUND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT.
REST OF THE WEEK THRU SUNDAY IS OVERALL LOOKING QUIET. 500 MB
TROUGH, UPPER LOW DIVES WELL SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA MID TO LATE WEEK WITH ANY MOISTURE FROM THAT REMAINING
SOUTH. OUR AREA REMAINS IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND THERE IS
ANOTHER ONE OF THESE FAST MOVING UPPER WAVES MOVING THRU SD INTO
SOUTHERN MN THU INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.
THIS MAY SKIRT THE FAR SOUTHERN FCST AREA. BETTER MOISTURE IS
JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA IN E SD INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF MN
WHERE TEMPS WILL DETERMINE PTYPE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHILE THE GFK CONTINUES TO REPORT OVC011, LOOKING OUTSIDE SKIES
ARE VERY MUCH CLEAR. WITH THIS IN MIND CONFIDENT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
THINGS START TO DROP INTO MVFR RANGES FROM 12Z-18Z WITH BJI
REACHING IFR MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL UNSURE WHAT HAPPENS AT FAR
WRT TO THE MORNING PRECIP BUT THINKING AT LEAST RIGHT NOW THAT
THINGS REMAINS SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL AND DRY AIR HELPS TO
PREVENT THINGS FROM SPREADING NORTH AND IMPACTING THE SITE
DIRECTLY. STILL GOING TO BE SOME LLWS THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS
(280 AT 30-40KTS) BUT OTHER THAN CIGS REMAIN THE PRIMARY
AVIATION HAZARD FOR THE PERIOD
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TT
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