283
FXUS63 KFGF 200411
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1111 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW
THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AS
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE AND WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE STARTS
TO TAKE HOLD. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGHING REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL CANADA, PLACING
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA UNDER ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, INCLUDING ONE NOTABLE
TRAVERSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
FLOW OVER OUR REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS KEEPS BOUTS OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST, INCLUDING SEVERE
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON (MORE DETAILS BELOW).
HOWEVER, SHORTWAVE RIDGING BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ALLOW
SOME REPRIEVE FROM SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, INCLUDING
ONE THIS WEEKEND THAT PROMOTES MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WITHIN
THIS PATTERN, AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
IT ISN'T UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE TO MORE UPPER RIDING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH THE UPPER TROUGHING IN CANADA DIMINISHING AND
MIGRATING EASTWARD. THIS WOULD PROMOTE A GENERAL WARMING TREND
AWAY FROM BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TOWARD AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THIS ALSO INTRODUCES MORE WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION FOR POTENTIALLY SUBSEQUENT STORMS TO
UTILIZE. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO COMMENT
ON POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK OTHER THAN
THERE ARE NO GLARING SIGNALS FOR ROBUST SEVERE CHANCES.
..ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
SHALLOW BUT STOUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE
TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS TRAVERSING THE REGION ALLOWING SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE DEW POINTS ONLY INTO THE 50S AND
TEMPERATURES REMAINING RELATIVELY COOL INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S,
THERE IS UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ALOFT CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO FEED THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING WIND SPEED WITH
HEIGHT WILL ALSO HELP ORGANIZE CONVECTION. THIS KEEPS MAIN
HAZARD OF HAIL TO SIZE OF QUARTERS AS THE MAIN THREAT. COULDN'T
RULE OUT GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH EITHER. THIS POTENTIAL EXISTS
MAINLY IN WEST-CENTRAL MN THROUGH 6 PM, BUT ALSO INTO SOUTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS ENOUGH SPIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE (ESPECIALLY
ALONG WIND SHIFT LINES SUPPLYING AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY FOR
UPDRAFTS TO LATCH ON TO AND TIGHTEN) TO KEEP POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF WEAK TORNADOES TO DEVELOP, PARTICULARLY TOWARD CENTRAL MN
BEFORE 5 PM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VERY LIMITED AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. WHILE PRIMARILY FROM
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH TOMORROW, GIVEN THE LIGHT WINDS THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR VARIABLE DIRECTIONS. REGARDLESS, SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH EVEN MORE THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. SKIES
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR, ALTHOUGH SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS MAY
DEVELOP. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, CLOUD DECKS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE
5000 FEET. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD DIMINISH IN THE EVENING
TIMEFRAME.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...PERROUX
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