585
FXUS63 KFGF 050226
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
926 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE FA, WITH SOME
CLEAR SPOTS BEHIND IT OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS A FEW ECHOES AROUND MINOT, BUT NOT SURE
HOW MUCH OF THIS IS REACHING THE GROUND EITHER. NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
QUITE A BIT OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS SHIFTING ACROSS THE FA
RIGHT NOW. THERE ARE EVEN SOME WEAK ECHOES ON RADAR. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK 850MB JET, BROAD WARM ADVECTION, AND EVEN
SOME UPPER JET SUPPORT. SO MOSTLY EXPECTING SOME VIRGA TONIGHT,
DOUBT IF ANYTHING WILL ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND. THERE MAY ALSO
BE SOME PARTLY CLOUDY BREAKS BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
AREA OF MID CLOUDS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH 850-700 MB WARM
ADVECTION IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. ECHOES REMAIN MOVING TOWARD
JAMESTOWN. OBS HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE
GROUND, BUT RADAR RETURNS WOULD INDICATE AT LEAST SOMETHING WOULD.
MORE LIKELY BRIEF LIGHT SNOW. WILL CONTINUE A LOW MENTION OF -SN
INTO AREAS AROUND VALLEY CITY LATE AFTN AND THEN WEAKEN IT.
OTHERWISE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVING ENE THRU S SASKATCHEWAN AND THIS
WILL TRACK MOSTLY NORTH OF THE BORDER TONIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN A
VERY LOW POP FOR -SN ALONG THE BORDER PER PREV FCST. HRRR
ENSEMBLES MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST TO TURN A
BIT MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS WARMER AIR DOES MOVE IN.
THEREFORE NOT A LARGE TEMP DROP TONIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE MID CLOUDS MOVE EAST, AND WARM ADVECTION
CONTINUES. BUT IN THE THICKER SNOWPACK KEPT HIGHS ON THE LOWER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE, IN THE LOW 40S. LOW 50S MORE LIKELY FAR EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR 850-700 MB WARM ADVECTION
WITH THIS SECOND WAVE AND AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN. FOCUS IS ON THE
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. RAIN AMOUNTS DO LOOK
LIGHT...MOSTLY UNDER 0.10 INCH ON AVERAGE. TEMPS DO LOOK TO STAY
WARMER THAN 32F DURING THE PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
MILDER ON MONDAY BUT STILL COOL IN THE NORTHERN FCST AREA WITH
40S. 50S TO AROUND 60 FAR SOUTH CLOSER TO A SURFACE TO 850 MB WARM
FRONT THAT WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 500 MB SHORT WAVE
MONDAY EVENING. 850 MB WARM ADVECTION AND A 30 KT 850 MB JET WILL
FOCUS A WARM 925-850 MB LAYER INTO FAR SE ND AND WC MN BY 06Z TUE.
MUCAPES VIA 12Z GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW 500-800 J/KG. IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY EVENING NEARER
JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT NEAR I-94 AND THEN THE 850 MB JET
WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWEST AND THE INSTABILITY BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT
FOCUS MORE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN FCST AREA AND EASTWARD FROM
THERE. SO POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR AN AREA OF SHOWERS, ESP CENTRAL
AND SOUTH, WITH RISK OF A FEW T-STORMS. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW
STRONGER T-STORM PROVIDED STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE 850 MB. GOOD
NEWS IS THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND OVERALL
INCREASING IN AREA AS IT MOVES MORE EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE RED
RIVER THRU MN. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.15 TO 0.35 SEEM
REASONABLE, BUT WITH PWATS OVER 0.75 INCH SOME ISOLD HEAVIER
TOTALS LIKELY...BUT THINKING THEY WILL BE LOCALIZED. STILL
SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR ANY HYDRO IMPACTS.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE DOWN MID TO LATE WEEK. 850 MB TEMPS CRASH
BACK DOWN TO -10 TO -13C WED NIGHT THRU FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER AIR, MOSTLY FLURRIES OR
SPRINKLES. TEMPS SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
NOT SEEING ANY ISSUES FOR THE TAFS UNTIL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD,
WHEN CEILINGS BEGIN TO LOWER AGAIN. THIS WILL PROBABLY APPEAR
MORE ON THE 06Z SET OF TAFS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
THE RIVERS WERE GENERALLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING ON BOTH THE NORTH
DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA TRIBUTARIES. A SECONDARY RISE IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK WHEN THE RECENT SNOWFALL MELTS.
THE FORECAST POINTS ON THE MAIN STEM RED RIVER WERE GENERALLY STEADY
OR SLOWLY FALLING FROM HALSTAD SOUTHWARD. THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH
OF HALSTAD CONTINUE TO RISE. A SECONDARY RISE IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
FOR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST POINTS WHEN THE RECENT SNOWFALL MELTS.
HARWOOD AND THE WEST FARGO DIVERSION COULD GO TO MAJOR FLOOD STAGE
NEXT WEEK. A SECONDARY PEAK MAY BE POSSIBLE BEYOND THE 7 DAY PERIOD
FOR THE NORTHERN FORECAST POINTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
RIVER POINT FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. REFER TO THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR
DETAILED INFORMATION ON SPECIFIC LOCATIONS.
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
HYDROLOGY...JK
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