693
FXUS63 KFGF 251227
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 40 MPH AND HIGHER FRIDAY MAY BRING
LOCALIZED BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IMPACTS IN THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 626 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 426 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE AS FRIDAY WILL SEE A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND
40-45 MPH BUT ALSO TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE FREEZING
THURSDAY AND LIKELY ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN FAR NE ND WILL
DROP INTO THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT NO NEW SNOW BETWEEN
NOW AND THEN AND NO NEW SNOW WITH THE COLDER AIR MASS SPREADING
IN. AS WE SAW ON TUESDAY JUST WIND GUSTS 45 MPH OR SO NOT ENOUGH
TO GENERATE ANY WIDESPREAD IMPACTS OTHER THAN DRIFTING SNOW AND
LOCALIZED BLOWING SNOW FOR A TIME IN THE NORTH RRV. PLUS WITH
WARMER TEMPS EVEN IN THAT AREA AND LONGER TIME OF NO NEW SNOW,
THE SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL BE HARDER TO LIFT AND MOVE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES BROAD SURFACE SURFACE
HIGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AT THIS HOUR. WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE
TO REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 MPH RANGE SUSTAINED WITH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR
BLOWING SNOW TO ARISE, HOWEVER MORE SEVERE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN
SIGNIFICANTLY MITIGATED WITH WIND SPEEDS AS LOW AS THEY ARE.
STILL, WITH MIXING ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON, THE EXPECTATION IS
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLL SNOW SHOWERS.
SNOWFALL RATES COMBINED WITH THE ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CREATE REGIONS OF LOW VISIBILITY, HOWEVER IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY MINOR WITH WINDS NOT EXPECTED TO
INCREASE MUCH FURTHER. AS WE APPROACH SUNSET, IMPACTS WILL
BECOME MINIMAL AS WINDS DIMINISH AND MIXING CEASES.
WE REMAIN LOCKED IN PERPETUAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
ARE NOT APPARENT IN LONG RANGE GUIDANCE UNTIL FRIDAY WHEN A FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROLLS THROUGH BRINGING THE THREAT FOR
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ONCE MORE. SIGNALS FOR WIND ARE VERY
STRONG THANKS TO A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT SETTING UP
ALONG THE PERTURBATION. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE VARIES IN LOCATION
OF THE UPPER LOW, BUT MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE MAIN UPPER
LOW NORTH WITH GENERALLY MODEST WIND PRODUCTION ACROSS OUR
REGION. WHILE BLOWING SNOW IS A POTENTIAL THREAT, THE CLIPPER
NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM BRINGS LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WELL
ABOVE FREEZING TO OUR AREA, SO IMPACTS TO SNOWPACK VIABILITY
FOR BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN ALL OF THESE UNCERTAINTIES
AND BASED ON ENSEMBLE DISTRIBUTION WITH A 90TH PERCENTILE
SOLUTION FOR POTENTIAL WARNING IMPACTS FROM A DEEPER LOW, THERE
IS A 10% CHANCE FOR WARNING IMPACTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IF SNOWPACK REMAINS VIABLE AND A DEEPER LOW
ARISES. AGAIN, THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS WORKING AGAINST IT BUT
IT DOES AT LEAST LOOK LIKE WE'LL SEE WINDS TO FACILITATE AT
LEAST ADVISORY IMPACTS IF SNOWPACK REMAINS VIABLE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
VFR FOR MOST AREAS THRU 12Z THU. INCREASING MID CLOUDS WILL WORK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS AT LEAST NE ND THRU THE MORNING/MIDDAY AND ALL
AREAS LATE TODAY/EVENING. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NORTH
OF BJI OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS...MAINLY
WESTERLY, BUT TURNING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTN IN ND AND TONIGHT IN
MN UNDER 10 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...PERROUX/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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