137
FXUS63 KFGF 260507
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1107 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
COLD HEADLINES REMAIN ON TRACK SOME SLIGHTLY COLDER WIND CHILLS
THAN EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN PERHAPS IN
THE LOW -40S BUT GONNA FORGO AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING AS THINGS
LOOK TO "WARM" BACK INTO THE -30S BY 3-4AM. OTHERWISE DID UP
POPS AS SOME LIGHT SNOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH ALONG A
FRONT MONDAY MORNING BRINGING A DUSTING IN TO VALLEY TO A FEW
TENTHS FURTHER EAST TOWARD THE RED LAKES AND BEMIDJI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..SYNOPSIS
EXPANSIVE AND WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE CONUS, WITH A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MASS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LOOKING
UPSTREAM, A WEAK PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS IN NORTHERN
AB/SK, MIGRATING SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
INCREASE WINDS AND BRING LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD
HAZARDOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EVENTUALLY TEMPERATURES WARM ENOUGH BEHIND A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH'S PASSAGE TO MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR
WARNING-CRITERIA COLD CONDITIONS OF -40F OR COLDER. HOWEVER,
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADVISORY-CRITERIA
COLD CONDITIONS BETWEEN -30F AND -40F EVERY EVENING/EARLY
MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, ALTHOUGH NOT AS COLD AS WE'VE
JUST EXPERIENCED THIS PAST WEEKEND.
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH
WITH SOME INFLUENCE OF RELATIVELY MILDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
EMANATING OUT OF THE CANADIAN HIGH PLAINS AS COMPACT UPPER
RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. THIS IS
ALSO A RESULT OF WEAK PACIFIC JET WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
CONTENT NOSING INTO THIS REGION. ENSEMBLES ALLOW COMPACT,
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT TO EMANATE FROM THIS PACIFIC
JET INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK. ONE OR MORE OF THESE
WAVES MAY INFLUENCE OUR AREA WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN
WHICH WAVE MAY BRING THESE CONDITIONS, IF ANY. THERE CONTINUES
TO ALSO BE SOME AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLES IN A MORE ORGANIZED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN MB, WESTERN ON, INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST REGION. THIS MAY ALSO BRING ITS OWN PERIOD OF
LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE TRANSIENT/PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS, THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SIGNAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY
IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
..HAZARDOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
CHOSE TO EXTEND THE EXTREME COLD WARNING WITHIN NORTHWEST MN
BASED ON HIGH PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 80% OF WIND CHILLS
MINUS 40F OR COLDER WITHIN THE REFS AND HREF GUIDANCE SUITES.
DESPITE CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT, THERE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING WELL INTO
THE 20S BELOW ZERO IN NORTHWEST MN CONSIDERING TEMPERATURES
HEADING INTO TONIGHT ARE WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. THESE
TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH AN INCREASING BREEZE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S BELOW ZERO AND A
BREEZE BUILDING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL DRIVE WIND CHILL
VALUES WELL INTO THE 40S BELOW ZERO THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 30 TO
40 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS YET THIS EVENING AND THROUGH SUNRISE BUT
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY FLIP W/NW BEHIND A MORNING FRONTAL
PASSAGE BETWEEN 14-18Z AT ALL TERMINALS. THIS FRONT COMES SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND CEILING DROPPING TO LOW VFR AND MVFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WINDS POST FRONT INCREASE TO 15-20KTS
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS BUT OTHER THAN THIS MVFR AND INCREASING WINDS
NO OTHER AVIATION HAZARDS TO MENTION.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
004>009-013>017-022-023.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ003-024-
027>032-040.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...TT
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