468
FXUS63 KFGF 112348
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
648 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL GREATLY ERODE EXISTING SNOWPACK. SNOWMELT AND
POTENTIAL FOR UPCOMING PRECIPITATION BRINGS A MEDIUM CHANCE
FOR MINOR RIVERINE FLOODING.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TODAY LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL WINTER IMPACTS NEXT FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS VIEWABLE ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL DEEPEN INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL TIER OF THE CONUS. THIS IS HELPING DRAW UP HIGHER
MOISTURE CONTENT FROM THE SOUTH, WHILE ALSO INCREASING SYNOPTIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT, ESPECIALLY WITH ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST THIS
EVENING AND SUNDAY. THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INCREASED FORCING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE PREVIOUS SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR AREA
SUNDAY HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD, WITH MOST FORCING FOR ASCENT TO
OVERCOMING LIKELY CAPPING DISPLACED FROM OUR AREA TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
THIS BEGINS A RELATIVELY LENGTHY PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY/QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, PROMOTING A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER
REGIME, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW
EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EVOLVE. THIS INCLUDES POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS. MORE
DETAILS ON THIS CAN BE FOUND BELOW.
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGHING AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE OVER OUR AREA BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS HIGH AS THE 60S AND
70S. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
LATER THIS WEEK, WHILE STAYING WELL ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF LENGTHY WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
UPCOMING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CHANCE FOR
MINOR RIVERINE FLOODING FOR A FEW TRIBUTARIES IN MINNESOTA. MORE
DETAILS ON THIS BELOW.
..UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO AGREE IN THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINING IN
THIS SOUTHWESTERLY AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WHILE ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS, THERE
ARE A FEW PERIODS OF NOTE THAT INCREASE OUR RELATIVE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THESE PERIODS ARE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, TUESDAY,
AND LATE NEXT WORK WEEK.
FOR TONIGHT/SUNDAY, THERE IS A NOTEWORTHY AMOUNT OF WARM AIR IN
THE MID LAYERS EFFECTIVELY CAPPING MUCH AVAILABLE INSTABILITY
FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, STRONGEST LOW/MID
LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT TO POTENTIALLY OVERCOME CAPPING WILL
REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. THUS,
EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER FORCED BY VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE HEART OF THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ITSELF.
THERE IS STILL EXPECTATION OF SUBSEQUENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO
BRING THEIR OWN WAVES OF INSTABILITY WITHIN THEIR WARM SECTORS,
BUT STILL MORE LIKELY TO BE LARGELY DISPLACED FROM OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, CONVECTION FED BY THIS WARM SECTOR MAY BE WITHIN OUR
AREA, INTRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST.
MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT MORE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR
EAST WITHIN EASTERN MN INTO WI. STILL, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR 1-2 INCHES WITHIN MINNESOTA AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF
US HIGHWAY 2 BY END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE MAY FEATURE COLD ENOUGH
AIR FOR SOME OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW, OF WHICH MAY BE
ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE. AS WE INCH CLOSER TO THIS PERIOD, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO CLUSTER TOWARD A SCENARIO THAT FEATURES
HEAVY SNOW IN THE EVENTUAL SYSTEM'S DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS COULD
OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW
MORE THAN 6 INCHES. THIS MAY ALSO COINCIDE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO
INTRODUCE IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW INTO THIS SCENARIO.
WHILE THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WARNING LEVEL IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 6 OR MORE INCHES AND BLOWING SNOW, DETAILS
ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING REMAIN VERY MUCH UNKNOWN. THIS KEEPS
CHANCE FOR WARNING IMPACTS AROUND 10%, WITH CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
IMPACTS AROUND 30% AT THIS TIME.
...WARM TEMPERATURES AND ERODING SNOWPACK BRINGS CHANCE FOR
RIVERINE FLOODING...
DUE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, CONFIDENCE FOR A GREATLY ERODING
SNOWPACK IS HIGH. THERE REMAINS WIDESPREAD FROZEN AND/OR
SATURATED SOILS, WITH SEVERAL AREAS STILL SEEING STANDING WATER
IN OPEN FIELDS (AS SEEN FROM WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY).
THIS LENDS CONFIDENCE THAT EXISTING WATER CONTENT WITHIN THE
SNOWPACK WILL LARGELY RUNOFF INTO RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES.
THE CURRENT WATER CONTENT WITHIN THE SNOWPACK ISN'T OVERLY
HIGH (UP TO 1.2 INCHES), AND ALONE WILL LIKELY NOT PUSH
RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES INTO FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF
THIS OCCURING WITH UPCOMING CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION INTRODUCE A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MINOR RIVERINE
FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, PHASING OF SNOWMELT-DRIVEN INCREASED
FLOW WITHIN TRIBUTARIES AND MAIN STEM RED RIVER MAY PHASE WITH
EACH OTHER IN THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY.
FOR THESE REASONS, ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOOD WATCHES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH SOME LIFR EVEN ALREADY APPEARING AT KDVL. THE CEILINGS WILL
DROP DOWN FROM MVFR TO IFR AT KGFK AND THE MN AIRPORTS IN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. SOME SITES UPSTREAM HAVE REPORTED LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE, AND THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF UNTIL EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH WHO AND
WHEN WILL GO BELOW A MILE IS STILL IN QUESTION. FOR NOW KEPT
VISIBILITY IN THE 1SM RANGE AND WILL GO LOWER AS FOG DEVELOPS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE FROM LIFR TO IFR AROUND MID-
DAY. A ROUND OF MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION MOVES IN BY LATE
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, SO INCLUDED A PROB 30 FOR THAT
TIME PERIOD. WINDS THAT ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OVER 25
KTS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE LATER HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH
SOME AIRPORTS GOING NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JR
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