231
FXUS63 KFGF 131140
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020
SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ACCORDING
TO WEB CAMS AND AUTOMATED STATIONS. SO FAR THE MORE DENSE
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT VERY WIDESPREAD, SO WILL LEAVE OFF ANY
HEADLINES BUT INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE THE
STORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN CANADA SO FAR, BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS LATER THIS MORNING FOR
ANYTHING THAT MANAGES TO GET INTO OUR AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR
SEVERE LOOK TO BE LATER ON THANKS TO THE CAP.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE AND IMPACTS FOR
THE PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM. THE FIRST LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH TODAY
WILL BE LIFTING INTO CANADA, BUT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, SO HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN SOME LOW 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S ARE NOT VERY FAR
SOUTH OF US CURRENTLY, SO THE STICKY AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE IN
PLACE FOR TODAY. A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHEASTERN ND WILL FLIRT WITH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WILL NOT STAY HIGH FOR MORE THAN AN
HOUR OR TWO AND ONLY VERY MARGINAL. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT
HEADLINES FOR NOW.
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. CAPE VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH 4000 J/KG POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE AT 25 TO 30 KTS, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED
SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAMS AND EVEN THE LARGER SCALE MODELS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, UNTIL STORMS BUILD FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHWESTERN MN. GIVEN THAT 700 MB
TEMPS WILL BE RISING INTO THE 12-14 C RANGE, THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN A CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ONCE STORMS GET GOING THIS
EVENING, THERE SHOULD BE SOME EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT. THINK THE
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE
SHIFTING OVER TO WIND AS THE STORMS FORM A LINE ALONG THE FRONT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SPIN UP NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALSO.
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER TONIGHT,
AND THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT UPPER
SYSTEM. WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SUSTAINED SEVERE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER SUPPORT
MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATER ON FRIDAY, BUT AT THAT POINT
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA. STILL
VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL
PROBABLY SEE SOME AFTERNOON SEVERE DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH OF COURSE
MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PLAYS OUT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020
UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETS UP NW
FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER WEEKEND AS A
CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. THE UPPER RIDGE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BREAK DOWN UNTIL MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD KEEP
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WHILE SATURDAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH DEW POINT VALUES
MOSTLY IN THE 50S. LOW POPS DO RETURN NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT OVER SW CANADA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020
MOST SITES ARE MVFR OR EVEN IFR, ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
SCATTERING OUT HAVE BEEN BRINGING SOME VFR. FOG HAS DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF KFAR THIS MORNING BUT THINK IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR LATER ON
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT KFAR AND THE MN AIRPORTS AS WE GET CLOSER
TO 00Z. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO JUST HAVE VCTS FOR NOW.
STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT OF KFAR AND KTVF BY LATE EVENING BUT MAY
LINGER AT KBJI A BIT LONGER. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AS COOLER AIR COMES
IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 KTS AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...JR
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