684
FXUS63 KFGF 111753
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1253 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WITH NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS 45 MPH OR HIGHER
TUESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SEVERAL FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING PERIODS.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS
OF THE REGION EACH AFTERNOON TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS
A 30% CHANCE FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS DURING THESE PERIODS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND BASED ON CURRENT TD/RH TRENDS AS
TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING, RH VALUES SHOULD FALL TO THE 20-25%
RANGE FOR AT LEAST 2-3HR THIS AFTERNOON WHILE WINDS ARE
INCREASING. CONSIDERING THE STRONG WINDS THAT WILL BE ARRIVING
(GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON) AND WIND SHIFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING, DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN OUR ND COUNTIES. CONSIDERING THOSE
TRENDS I ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF OUR ND COUNTIES
(DEVILS LAKE BASIN/EASTERN ND).
THERE IS STILL A WINDOW WHERE RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
IN THE IMMEDIATE RRV OF MN (NORMAN TO WILKIN) AND THIS WILL BE
MONITORED, HOWEVER TIMING OF WINDS ALOFT/LOWEST RH (AROUND OR
LESS THAN 25%) MAY NOT LINE UP. THERE IS STILL A 30% CHANCE FOR
WARNING IMPACTS IN THOSE PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 911 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
MORNING TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED WELL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS (ALREADY LOWER 50S IN FAR SOUTHEAST ND). THE
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES YIELDED NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER MESSAGING FOR EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
MN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FROM THE LOOKS OF RH VALUES
AND PAST FEW DAYS DID NOT CHANGE WHAT THE EVENING SHIFT HAD FOR
DEW PTS, WHICH MIXED IN SOME LOWER HRRR VALUES. NET RESULT WAS
LOWER RH VALUES IN THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT IN LOWER WIND AREAS
(MN TREES) TO 24 TO 28 PERCENT ELSEWHERE. ALL AREAS BORDERLINE
RED FLAG. COORDINATION YIELDED NEAR CRITICAL FOR ALL AREAS OF
THE FCST AREA. SOUTH WINDS TODAY LOOK TO BE SUSTAINED 23-25 MPH
AND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH IN THE VALLEY, JUST SHY OF ADVISORY
LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
..SYNOPSIS
DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
WITH UPSTREAM RIDGING AMPLIFYING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN
CANADA. WE ARE STILL UNDER THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE OF THE
TROUGHING/COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW, HOWEVER THE PATTERN IS STARTING TO
BREAK DOWN AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS INTO THE REGION BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO PASS THROUGH THIS FLOW LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A PERIOD OF HIGH BASED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS (LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT). ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS EARLY ENOUGH MAY CARRY THE RISK
FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS (50MPH), HOWEVER AS MOST ACTIVITY IS FAVORED
CLOSER TO SUNSET OR LATER THIS THREAT IS LOWER. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, AND LIMITED MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH
IT, POTENTIAL RAIN TOTALS WILL BE MINIMAL (GENERALLY 0.1" OR LESS).
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH INCREASED HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, RESULTING IN INCREASING
TEMPERATURES (ABOVE AVERAGE), DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN (HIGHER RAIN
TOTAL POTENTIAL WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP), AND PERIODIC
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES. THESE BRING LOW RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(HIGH SPREAD IN ENSEMBLES ON LOCATION/COVERAGE) AND PERIODS OF WINDY
CONDITIONS/FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS (FRONTAL TIMING DEPENDENT). LONG
STORY SHORT: AFTER TONIGHT IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE ARE FINALLY
TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE CONSISTENT "SPRING-LIKE" PATTERN.
..FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING
A FREEZE WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR MOST OF NORTHWEST MN WHERE
PROBABILITIES FOR WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES EXCEED 80%
(NBM/LREF), WITH LOWEST VALUES IN COLDER AREAS REACHING THE MID 20S.
THE POSITION OF THE COLD POOL WILL BE SHIFTING EAST, HOWEVER SURFACE
RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN AND CALM WINDS/CLEAR
SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS IN THESE
AREAS.
A FROST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR EASTERN ND AND THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY OF WEST CENTRAL MN. THE RECOVER OF THE AIR MASS THROUGH
THE NIGHT OCCURS WEST TO EAST, AND AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE
WEST SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE CREATING MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
WIDESPREAD FREEZE IMPACTS MONDAY MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOWEST TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST TO ACTUALLY FALL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. EVEN WHERE WINDS INCREASE, 2M
TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW 36F FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD OF THE
MORNING HOURS AND SHELTERED LOCATIONS WOULD LIKELY FALL TO NEAR 32F
WITH FROST IMPACTS. IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY OF ND WINDS MAY
BE DELAYED LONG ENOUGH THAT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES OCCUR OUTSIDE
OF JUST SHELTERED AREAS, AND NBM SHOWS A 50% CHANCE FOR THESE
CONDITIONS AS FAR SOUTH AS GRAND FORKS COUNTY, THOUGH THE DURATION
OF THESE IMPACTS IF THEY OCCUR WOULD BE LIMITED AS WINDS DO INCREASE
AFTER 4AM EVEN IN THOSE AREAS.
..STRONG WINDS THIS WEEK
MONDAY, TUESDAY, AND THURSDAY ALL FEATURE SIGNALS FOR ELEVATED WINDS
AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES THROUGH
THE REGION. MODEL MIXED LAYER WINDS MONDAY SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF
NEAR ADVISORY GUSTS (AROUND 45MPH) WITH THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AND THE SHORT DURATION/MARGINAL NATURE MAY LIMIT IMPACTS.
TUESDAY IN PARTICULAR STANDS OUT, WITH ECMWF EFI VALUES 0.8 ACROSS
ALMOST OUR ENTIRE CWA, WHICH OFTEN CORRELATES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGH WIND WARNING IMPACTS. NBM PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY LOWER FOR
GUSTS 58MPH+ (40% OR LESS). THE SIGNAL THURSDAY ISN'T AS STRONG
REGARDING EFI, HOWEVER NBM PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHT SIMILAR
PROBABILITIES AS TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT PROBABILITIES ARE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH FOR CONSIDERING WIND ADVISORIES OR HIGH WIND WATCH PRODUCTS,
AND THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THESE WAVES NATURALLY CREATES
INCREASED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING SMALLER SCALE DETAILS AND IMPACTS.
..FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS THIS WEEK
THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PERIODS OF STRONG WIND/FRONTAL
PASSAGES ALSO RESULTS IN INCREASED UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING/LOCATION OF
LOWEST RH VALUES IN RELATION TO THE TIMING OF STRONGER WINDS THAT
COULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS/RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
MUCH DRIER MIXED LAYER TDS ARE INITIALLY IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY,
HOWEVER AS THE FRONT APPROACHES MIXED LAYER TDS ARE SHOWN TO
INCREASE NEAR THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. THERE IS STILL A WINDOW IN OUR
FAR EAST/NORTH CENTRAL MN COUNTIES WHERE RH VALUES MAY FALL TO 25%
OR LESS, HOWEVER THIS IS AHEAD OF THE STRONGER MIXED LAYER WINDS.
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE LIKELY AT THIS
POINT MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THOSE COUNTIES. RH VALUES BECOME MUCH
LESS CERTAIN THROUGH THE WEEK (ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK) AS DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN FAVORS INCREASED MIXED LAYER TDS
(EVEN IF THERE IS DEEPER MIXING), ONLY OFFSET BY THE POTENTIAL FOR
HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S (OUTSIDE SIGNAL FOR VALUES
NEAR 90 IN THE SOUTHER RRV THURSDAY). AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
PERIODS WHEN SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE STARTS BETTER RESOLVING SMALLER
SCALE FEATURES/FRONTAL TIMING WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON PERIODS WHEN RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z ACROSS EASTERN
ND AND NORTHWEST MN, WITH CU AND SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS
(VERY LOW COVERAGE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY) THIS EVENING/EARLY
OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE NEAR THE US/CANADA BORDER AND IN NORTH CENTRAL MN LATER
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH GUSTS
30KT+ EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND AGAIN AFTER
SUNRISE TUESDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS IS SHOWN TO ARRIVE
OUT OF CANADA LATE TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST MN, WITH IMPACTS
AT KTVF AND KBJI.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE/DJR
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR
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