791
FXUS63 KFGF 261125
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA TODAY AND ADDITIONALLY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY.
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY.
- THERE IS A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH A PRIMARY
THREAT FOR UP TO GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS BEING OBSERVED IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING, WITH CALM WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. A FEW MID
TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
MIDDAY, WITH SKIES OTHERWISE BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY. MID LEVEL
SMOKE REMAINS IN PLACE, WHICH COULD IMPACT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY; HOWEVER, HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
REMAIN LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2026
..SYNOPSIS
CLUSTERS DEPICT STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH THE PLACEMENT
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. BY THURSDAY
RIDGE RIDER ACTIVITY COULD RESUME THOUGH MOST MACHINE LEARNING
GUIDANCE KEEPS ACTIVITY MORE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS RATHER THAN
THIS FAR EAST, SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AT THE SAME TIME WE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORKWEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S INTO NEXT WEEKEND, SEVERAL DAYS
WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S PRIMARILY IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. ALONG WITH THE HOT TEMPS WILL BE LOW RH (30%) THAT
COULD LEAD NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEK.
- SEVERE RISK SATURDAY/SUNDAY
A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS ALL OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SUNDAY. FOR TODAYS THREAT THE RISK IS QUITE
CONDITIONAL WITH A BOUNDARY DRAPED NW TO SE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL THE STORM RISK ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY.
A STOUT POST SUNSET CAP WILL FAVOR ANY STORMS TO BE ELEVATED
WITH HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHOULD STORMS ROOT ATOP THE
INVERSION HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS COULD BE EXPECTED BUT
MORE LIKELY PERHAPS IS A FEW VIRGA SHOWERS AS SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES WILL BE SUBJECT TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT LIMITING AND
UPDRAFTS POTENTIAL TO GROW THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE.
SIMILARLY PESSIMISTIC ABOUT SUNDAY AS THE FORCING WILL BE WEAK
AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS ANYWHERE FROM 95-105. HITTING ANYTHING
ABOVE 100 IS FAR FROM A GUARANTEE SO BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL INCREASE WILL EASTWARD EXTEND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE 850
THERMAL RIDGE. SHOULD CONVECTIVE TEMPS BE REACH SURFACE BASED
STORMS BECOME LIKELY WITH INITIALLY DISCRETE AIRMASS CONVECTION
ORGANIZING INTO BOWING CLUSTERS THAT TRACK SOUTHEAST. WINDS UP
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS ARE POSSIBLE.
- HEAT IMPACTS
OUR RUN OF 90 DEGREE DAYS IN JULY CONTINUES TO END THE MONTH
WITH 90S POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY EACH DAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY
WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. HEAT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN POSTED
THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH A AN EXTREME
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT TOMORROW FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
VALLEY AS HEAT INDICES MAY LOCALLY CLIMB AS HIGH AS 110. THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK THE WELL MIX BOUNDARY LAYER AND WARM TEMPS
WILL ROUTINELY LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND
MIN RH AROUND 30%. THIS WILL WARRANT AT LEAST MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS MOST DAYS GIVEN THE STATE OF SEASONALLY DRY TO
VERY FUELS. COMBINE THIS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO DAYS
TO SEE AFTERNOON WINDS REACHING 20+ MPH AND NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN LOOKS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY ONCE
AGAIN THROUGH THE COMING WEEK POSSIBLY FURTHER
DEGRADING/EXPANDING THE EXISTING DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT KTVF AND KBJI
INTERMITTENTLY AS PATCHY FOG IS IMPACTING VISIBILITY. LOOK FOR
IMPROVEMENT RELATIVELY QUICKLY THIS MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LEFT IN THE
PROB30 GROUP FOR KBJI FOR NOW AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
FORM IN THE VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING ONCE MORE THIS EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ024-026>029-
038-049-052.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ030-039-053.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ030-039-053.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ008-016.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ002-003-029-
030-040.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ002-003-029-030-040.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ004-007>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.
UPDATE...LYNCH
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...LYNCH
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