729
FXUS63 KFGF 240343 AAB
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1043 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2018
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2018
HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
MOVING INTO THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE ON
SHOWERS FILLING INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MN,
SO ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES TO REFLECT THIS. LATEST CAMS SHOW THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY THROUGH THE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2018
DRIZZLE IS BEING REPORTED IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN EARLY THIS
EVENING, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TOO LOW TO BE PICKED
UP ON BY RADAR. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON AND OFF
THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS GRADUALLY
DEVELOPING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US HWY 2 THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY AND MN LAKES
COUNTRY AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND SFC LOW MOVES IN. ADJUSTED
RAIN CHANCES A BIT FOR TONIGHT TO REFLECT LATEST CAM TRENDS.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2018
REMAINS OF YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT FROM FARGO SOUTHWEST TO LOW
PRESSURE IN FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. 500 MB TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEAR FARGO BY 08Z
MON. AS IT DOES, 850 MB 30-40 KT JET EAST OF SYSTEM WILL CREATE A
ZONE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH 850 MB CAPES 1500 J/KG RANGE
NEAR AND JUST EAST OF THE SFC BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN
SD INTO FAR SE ND INTO NORTHERN MN. WOULD EXPECT TO SEE INCREASED
SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING NEAR BOUNDARY THIS EVENING
AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING EAST MONDAY. THUS
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP GENERALLY BAUDETTE-FOSSTON-FARGO AND
EAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THIS AREA ALSO HAS THE RISK OF GENERAL
THUNDER. FARTHER WEST SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL
LESS COVERAGE. UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS INDICATE 05-09Z HAS HAVING
THE BEST CHC FOR ANY STRONG T-STORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE ND/SD/MN
BORDER REGION.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2018
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES THAT AN ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN WILL DOMINATE
THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALLOWS MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE, STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION COUPLED WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AND DRIER WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING SLIGHT
WARMING ACROSS ND/SD/MN REGION BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE
AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO THE REGION OUT OF CANADA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN ND/NORTHWEST
MN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THURSDAY'S SYSTEM PUSHES SOUTHWARD.
COLDER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR SATURDAY. BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINT THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY FOR SUNDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WARM FRONT
DRAPED OVER THE REGION. WHILE THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A FEW
SNOWFLAKES/MIXED PRECIP TYPE ACROSS NORTHERN ND, MAINLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED. IMPACTS FROM ANY WINTER WEATHER WILL MINIMAL SINCE LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BRIEFLY DROP BELOW FREEZING DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
OVERALL, COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH MOST LONG-
RANGE ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING GRADUALLY
DECREASING TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. FROST
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE AS OVERNIGHT LOWS AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING
BECOME MORE COMMON BY LATE WEEK. WEDNESDAY MORNING APPEARS TO BE THE
MOST FAVORABLE DAY AS CLEARING SKIES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FROST
DEVELOPMENT. HIGHS FOR NEXT WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S THROUGH MID WEEK, DROPPING TO THE
UPPER 40S FOR NORTHERN ND AND LOW 50S ELSEWHERE BY LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2018
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE NORTH TO SOUTH TOWARD IFR LEVELS AS SHOWERS SPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT
TIMES AS WELL.
A COLD FRONT BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT, BISECTING THE
AREA AND CAUSING EAST WINDS TO TURN NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT
(NORTHEAST ND) AND SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT (ELSEWHERE).
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT IN THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN. ADDITIONALLY A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE LLWS CONCERNS OVERNIGHT, PRIMARILY AFFECTING
FAR TO BJI AND AREAS SOUTH.
CIGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MVFR/VFR WEST TO EAST THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH THE LONGEST LASTING IMPACTS FOR AREAS FAR TO BJI AND
SOUTHEAST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...BP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page