540
FXUS63 KFGF 191525
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
925 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2020
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 919 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2020
SOUTHEASTERN ND WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS AS STRATUS SINKS SOUTH
OUT OF SRN MB. H700 MOISTURE PROGS INDICATE DRIER AIR NOT MOVING
DOWN TIL LATE TONIGHT, SO DO EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. WILL ADJUST SKY GRIDS UP 10 TO 20 PERCENT AND EXTEND
LATER INTO OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2020
EXPANDED THE MENTION OF FLURRIES THIS MORNING ACROSS NW MN PER OBS
SHOWING LIGHT SNOW ALONG AND EAST OF A CAVALIER TO FOSSTON TO
WADENA LINE. WILL SEE LIGHT SNOW AND OR FLURRIES PERSIST FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. NO RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED AS INTENSITY
WILL BE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2020
WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE AREA TODAY WILL BE MORNING WIND CHILLS AND
THEN SOME FLURRIES AND OR LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NW MN WITH UP TO AN
INCH OF ACCUMULATION PRIMARILY IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND
BELTRAMI COUNTIES. THIS MORNING WINDS HAVE COME DOWN AFTER
YESTERDAYS BLIZZARD YET ARE STILL SUSTAINED ACROSS E ND INTO THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE.
THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH TEMPS FROM ZERO TO NEGATIVE TEENS ARE
PRODUCING WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW RANGE. WILL SEE
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WARMING
TEMPS AND DECREASING WINDS. ADDITIONALLY AS A UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TRACKS SOUTH SOUTHEAST AND WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND OR
FLURRIES WITH IT TO THE NORTHERN VALLEY AND NW MN TODAY.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
EXPECTED IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND BELTRAMI COUNTIES.
AS THE WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST SKIES WILL CLEAR AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT. WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SEE TEMPS FALL QUICKLY THIS
EVENING WITH LOWS EXPECTED AROUND TWENTY BELOW IN THE VALLEY AND
WEST WITH SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS
AND SOME MIXING MAY CONTINUE. WIND CHILLS AGAIN WILL BE IN THE 25
TO 35 BELOW RANGE FOR A TIME PERIOD OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS AND
SOME SUN WILL HELP TEMPS RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
MONDAY FOR HIGHS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2020
RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID-WEEK PERIOD.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 20S EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SEEING 30 DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
LOW MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS AN OPEN WAVE ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT AND BECOME NORTHERLY, LOWERING OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOWER 20S; HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO
ARCTIC AIR BEING CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION.
THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE H5
TROUGH AS IT TRAVERSES THE NORTHERN CONUS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH A POSSIBLE UPPER LOW DEVELOPING IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND
MOVING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE CURRENT MODEL
RUNS KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST; HOWEVER THERE REMAINS A LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
AT THIS TIME. AT MINIMUM, WE ARE LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2020
MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT TVF,
BJI AND GFK TODAY. DVL AND FAR WILL MOST LIKLEY SEE VFR CIGS WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SHORT LIVED MVFR CIGS. NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10KTS TODAY. SKIES WILL SCT OUT THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-015-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>003-014-015-
022-023-027>032-040.
UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...LYNCH
AVIATION...JK
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