987
FXUS63 KFGF 262333
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HAIL TO 1 INCH IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DAILY OVER
PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED BORDERLINE SEVERE AT TIMES SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT WANING WITH DIURNAL HEATING.
MLCAPE IS STILL 500-1000 J/KG WITH EFF SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND ML
LCL WELL BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE DOWNBURST/OUTFLOW WINDS BUT MAINTAINING A MARGINAL HAIL
ENVIRONMENT CURRENTLY. AS THE CURRENT ACTIVITY DISSIPATES IN THE
NEXT 2 HOURS FOCUS WILL TURN TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT WHERE CAMS
ARE HINTING AT ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION. WITH
THIS THE WINDS THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LOW WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND
40-50MPH BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR ATOP THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION (20KTS OF SW FLOW AT 850MB) AND 30KTS OF EFF SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A MARGINAL ELEVATED HAILER ENVIRONMENT GIVEN 500-1000
J/KG OF MUCAPE AND LCL-EL CLOUD SHEAR OF 40KTS TO SUPPORT MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WOULD THINK THAT EVEN IF WHEN GET MORE
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES MAX HAIL SIZE WOULD BE 1-1.5" AT THE
MOST BUT CERTAINLY ANOTHER ROUND WORTH WATCHING. SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT THIS POTENTIAL FROM BEING FULLY REALIZED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A LARGE SCALE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND OUR LOCAL AREA AT LEAST INTO THIS
WEEKEND, WITH AN EVENTUAL WEAKENING OR BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE
WITHIN OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THAT OCCURS ENSEMBLES SHOW
AN INCREASE IN SPREAD WITH CLUSTERS CONGREGATING TOWARDS A
SCENARIO WITH WESTERLY FLOW (GENERALLY DRIER) OR SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW (BETTER POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORMS). MODEL
CONSENSUS AFTER TODAY'S THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOW VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION AND NO SIGNAL FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. MAIN WEATHER IMPACTS IN THE NEXT 7 DAYS (BESIDES
THE THUNDERSTORM TODAY) WILL BE THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DAILY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
..ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
A FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHING FROM NEAR DEVILS LAKE TO HILLSBORO TO
PARK RAPIDS IS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION, WITH
MLCAPE AND DCAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE
STALLED FRONT FRONT (SB CAPE EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG). DEEP
LAYER/EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 30KT AND
0-3KM SHEAR UNDER 20KT ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS FRONT, THOUGH IT
WILL TEND TO INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING WHILE
INSTABILITY CONCURRENTLY DECREASES. THIS FAVORS PULSE/AIR MASS
TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND THREATS GENERALLY ON THE
LOWER END OF SEVERE IMPACT RANGES (1"/60 MPH) THROUGH SUNSET. AS
WOULD BE EXPECTED CAMS SHOWS CELLULAR CONVECTION EVENTUALLY
MERGING INTO LESS ORGANIZED CELLS THIS EVENING ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE WITH A TRANSITION TO SHOWERS/EMBEDDED WEAKER CONVECTION
AFTER SUNSET.
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
RECENT RAINS CONTINUE TO EXPEDITE GREEN-UP, HOWEVER AS MULTIPLE
DRY/HOT DAYS HAVE OCCURRED THERE COULD BE CURING UNDERWAY AND
CONSIDERING THERE IS STILL SOME DEAD GRASS/FUEL LOADING WE MAY
SEE INCREASINGLY DRY/CRITICAL FUELS REGION-WIDE DAILY. AS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AT LEAST PARTS OF THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DAILY RH VALUES AROUND OR LESS THAN
25%, WITH NBM (AND IT'S HIGH BIAS) ALREADY SHOWING VALUES IN THE
20-25% RANGE LATE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. DUE TO THE RIDGE AXIS
ALOFT, WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAKER IN GENERAL, SO THIS CREATES
MUCH MORE VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS/GUSTS DURING PERIODS OF PEAK
MIXING REDUCING THE PREDICTABILITY OF RFW CONDITIONS. AT THE
VERY LEAST NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE
ANTICIPATED OVER AT LEAST PARTS OF (IF NOT MUCH OF THE REGION)
PARTICULARLY LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WINDS MOSTLY 5-10KTS BUT VARIABLE ON DIRECTION THIS EVENING
WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS
IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST. IN THE NEAR TERM THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AVOIDING ALL TAF SITES BUT MODELS DO INDICATE MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IN THE 06-10Z PERIOD FROM KDVL TO KFAR
WHICH HAS WARRANTED A PROB30 FOR THOSE SITES ACROSS THAT TIME
PERIOD FOR NOW. THIS MAY TURN INTO A TEMPO OR EVEN PREVAILING
IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. MAIN IMPACTS TO PILOTS AND GROUNDS
CREWS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40MPH, HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT
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