231  
FXUS63 KFGF 131140  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
640 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020  
 
SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN SOME OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES ACCORDING  
TO WEB CAMS AND AUTOMATED STATIONS. SO FAR THE MORE DENSE  
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT VERY WIDESPREAD, SO WILL LEAVE OFF ANY  
HEADLINES BUT INCLUDED A MENTION IN THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE THE  
STORMS TO OUR NORTHWEST HAVE BEEN MOSTLY IN CANADA SO FAR, BUT  
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS LATER THIS MORNING FOR  
ANYTHING THAT MANAGES TO GET INTO OUR AREA. BEST CHANCES FOR  
SEVERE LOOK TO BE LATER ON THANKS TO THE CAP.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020  
 
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE AND IMPACTS FOR  
THE PERIOD.  
 
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THE SHORT  
TERM. THE FIRST LEAD SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH TODAY  
WILL BE LIFTING INTO CANADA, BUT WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO  
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR AHEAD OF  
THE FRONT, SO HIGHS WILL GET INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN SOME LOW 90S  
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH. DEW POINTS IN THE 70S ARE NOT VERY FAR  
SOUTH OF US CURRENTLY, SO THE STICKY AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE IN  
PLACE FOR TODAY. A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHEASTERN ND WILL FLIRT WITH  
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WILL NOT STAY HIGH FOR MORE THAN AN  
HOUR OR TWO AND ONLY VERY MARGINAL. WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT  
HEADLINES FOR NOW.  
 
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO TONIGHT. CAPE VALUES WILL BE VERY HIGH AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT WITH 4000 J/KG POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS NOT TOO  
IMPRESSIVE AT 25 TO 30 KTS, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED  
SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY. CAMS AND EVEN THE LARGER SCALE MODELS  
HAVE BEEN SHOWING ONLY MINIMAL PRECIP ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER  
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, UNTIL STORMS BUILD FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE  
BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INTO NORTHWESTERN MN. GIVEN THAT 700 MB  
TEMPS WILL BE RISING INTO THE 12-14 C RANGE, THIS SEEMS REASONABLE  
GIVEN A CAP FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. ONCE STORMS GET GOING THIS  
EVENING, THERE SHOULD BE SOME EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT. THINK THE  
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE  
SHIFTING OVER TO WIND AS THE STORMS FORM A LINE ALONG THE FRONT.  
CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF SPIN UP NEAR THE BOUNDARY ALSO.  
 
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ALONG THE MT/ND BORDER TONIGHT,  
AND THERE SHOULD BE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT UPPER  
SYSTEM. WITH PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER  
SHEAR AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR  
SUSTAINED SEVERE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER SUPPORT  
MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY LATER ON FRIDAY, BUT AT THAT POINT  
THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA. STILL  
VERY UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND OUR EASTERN COUNTIES WILL  
PROBABLY SEE SOME AFTERNOON SEVERE DEVELOPMENT, ALTHOUGH OF COURSE  
MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTION PLAYS OUT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020  
 
UPPER WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SETS UP NW  
FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL BRING A COOLER AND DRIER WEEKEND AS A  
CANADIAN ROCKIES RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. THE UPPER RIDGE DOES NOT  
APPEAR TO BREAK DOWN UNTIL MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD KEEP  
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  
WHILE SATURDAY WILL BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, THE REMAINDER OF  
THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH DEW POINT VALUES  
MOSTLY IN THE 50S. LOW POPS DO RETURN NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK AS  
THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT OVER SW CANADA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020  
 
MOST SITES ARE MVFR OR EVEN IFR, ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF  
SCATTERING OUT HAVE BEEN BRINGING SOME VFR. FOG HAS DEVELOPED  
SOUTH OF KFAR THIS MORNING BUT THINK IT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE  
TAF SITES. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR THEN VFR LATER ON  
THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AT KFAR AND THE MN AIRPORTS AS WE GET CLOSER  
TO 00Z. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY SO JUST HAVE VCTS FOR NOW.  
STORMS WILL CLEAR OUT OF KFAR AND KTVF BY LATE EVENING BUT MAY  
LINGER AT KBJI A BIT LONGER. SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AS COOLER AIR COMES  
IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 20 KTS AT  
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE  
NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 
UPDATE...JR  
SHORT TERM...JR  
LONG TERM...SPEICHER  
AVIATION...JR  
 
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