002
FXUS63 KFGF 190451
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1151 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019
CLOUD AREA BEHIND 500 MB SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST BUT ALSO IS
CLEARING AREA SPREADING SOUTH INTO FAR NE ND. AND WITH LIGHT WINDS
HAVE SEEN SOME FOG FORM LANGDON/CANDO AREAS. SO IDEA OF SOME FOG
FORMATION INTO DVL BASIN SEEMS REASONABLE AND PATCHY INTO PARTS OF
FAR NW MN DOES AS WELL OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019
LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. MID AFTERNOON RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS ECHOES PERSISTING WEST TO EAST ACROSS AN AREA FROM THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TOWARD THE LAKE OF THE WOOD REGION. HOWEVER,
SURFACE OBSERVING SITES ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REPORT PRECIPITATION
UNDER THESE ECHOES, INDICATING THIS ACTIVITY IS HAVING TROUBLE
OVERCOMING MID LEVEL DRY AIR AND LIFT MIGHT BE WEAKER THAN THE
MODELS HAD PREVIOUSLY PREDICTED. EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATION TO BE
LIGHT, A HALF INCH OR LESS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS THAT ICE NUCLEATION WILL BE LOST ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF
THIS ACTIVITY, SO THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF PATCHY
DRIZZLE AS WELL.
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS SUGGEST OVERSPREADING STRATUS
BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY, LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY. DESPITE
THIS, LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND BETTER MIXING ON TUESDAY
WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 30S AGAIN.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019
A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOVE
THROUGH QUICKLY WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DIP SLIGHTLY AND WILL RECOVER ON WEDNESDAY IN
WESTERLY FLOW KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY ABOVE
FREEZING.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL
AND THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
SLOW WARMING TREND THAT IS ANTICIPATED...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE LOW 40S IN THE SOUTH AND TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 50 IN THE
FORESTED AREAS IN MINNESOTA AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS. AFTER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...GREATER
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS MODELS DIVERGE SO WILL HAVE TO USE A BLENDED
SOLUTION. BEST CASE SCENARIO IS WITH THE EC WHICH INDICATES MORE OF
A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ACROSS ONTARIO AND THE
SOUTHERN STREAM MORE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS
FAVORS MORE OF A ROBUST TURN OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. WITH
SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL HAVE TO WATCH SUBSEQUENT RUNS. FOR
NOW...WILL JUST LEAVE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT MON MAR 18 2019
STILL HIGH UNCERTAINITY IN REGARDS TO CEILINGS/VISIBILITY IN PARTS
OF NE ND/NW MN OVERNIGHT THRU TUESDAY MORNING. INCREASED
CONFIDENCE OF SOME FOG INTO DEVILS LAKE WITH CLEARING MOVING IN.
MORE UNCERTAIN GFK/TVF. ALSO AREAS OF MVFR CIGS PERSISTING IN MANY
AREAS THROUGH LATE MORNING TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING WORKS
SOUTHEAST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...BP
LONG TERM...HOPKINS
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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