087
FXUS63 KFGF 210417
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1117 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SHIFT SLOWLY TO THE WEST, THEN
NORTHWEST AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. COOLEST TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING, WITH LOW
TO MID 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE REMAINS FIXED ACROSS THE WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
CONUS TODAY WITH AN UPSTREAM LARGE LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. WHILE
RIDGING REMAINS DOMINANT THROUGH THE MID WEEK TROUGHING DOES
EVENTUALLY EMERGE FROM THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH SOME SCENARIOS BRINGING A CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE
DAKOTAS THURSDAY AND AN ATTENDANT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AS
TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE EXISTING RIDGING SLOW ACROSS CONUS BECOMES
ZONAL WITH MINIMAL STEERING OF THE NOW OCCLUDED UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTH OR POTENTIALLY EVEN DIRECTLY OVER US (IMPLICATIONS ON
TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES). WHILE CLUSTERS DO LITTLE TO CAPTURE
ITS EXACT POSITION OR DEPTH BY THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD THEY ALL
KEEP IT NEAR OUR AREA WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WELL TO OUR SOUTH,
ALONG WITH ANY WARMTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- FIRE WEATHER
THE ONGOING RED FLAG TODAY DOESNT NEED TO MUCH DETAIL BUT OVERALL
LOW RH ACROSS ALL OF OUR MINNESOTA COUNTIES ESPECIALLY WEST CENTRAL
WHERE RH IS ALREADY WIDELY UNDER 30% FROM FERGUS FALLS TO BEMIDJI.
WINDS ARE NEARING THEIR PEAK FOR THE DAY WITH GUSTS DROPPING OFF BY
6PM AND SUSTAINED WINDS FALLING BELOW 15KTS BY 7PM. OVERALL THE RFW
MAY BE SLIGHTLY LARGER THAN WEATHER CONDITIONS WOULD CURRENTLY VERIFY
BUT FUEL CONDITIONS SUPPORT IT NONETHELESS. TOMORROW WILL MAINTAIN
THE LOW AFTERNOON RH OF 25-35% FOR MUCH OF THE REGION (LOCALLY
LOWER) THROUGH WINDS WILL BE UP TO 15KTS AND THUS ONLY NEAR CRITICAL
CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WHERE FUELS ARE
PRIMED.
WITH LIMITED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDWEEK AND RIDGING
AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, ERC MAXIMUMS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO RISE WITH HRB VALUES INDICATING ONGOING DEAD FUELS. AT THIS TIME,
THE TIMEFRAME OF GREATEST CONCERN IS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE NBM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES APPEAR FAIRLY HIGH (30-35%), THIS IS MAINLY DUE
TO LIMITED CAM IMPACT ON NBM OUTPUT AND WILL LIKELY FALL TOWARDS
MORE CRITICAL CRITERIA AS WE GET CLOSER TO MID-WEEK. AT THE SAME
TIME STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20KTS GUSTING 30KTS ARE LIKELY. THE
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL EVENTUALLY END AS WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION PUSHES INTO THE REGION LATE WEEK.
- THURSDAY WEATHER BINGO
GET THOSE SPRING WEATHER BINGO CARDS READY. THURSDAY IS GONNA THROW
JUST ABOUT EVERYTHING AT THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH AN UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE ND/MN VICINITY BY THE AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH
DIURNAL HEATING. WITH IT MAY BE A NARROW RIBBON ON SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDRED TO 1500J/KG OF MLCAPE AND
SHEAR PROFILES TYPICAL OF COLD CORE SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS. STRONG
LOW LEVEL CURVATURE NEAR THE LOW AND BACK MID/UPPER LEVEL PROFILES
LEADING THE SUPERB STORM RELATIVE VENTING OF PRECIP AND GREAT LOW LEVEL
STRETCHING. WOULD THINK ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE IF THIS
SCENARIO UNFOLDS. IF SOMETHING MORE TAME OR MISALIGNED OCCURS THEN A
CEILING MAY BE MORE IN THE MARGINAL SEVERE TO GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
TERRITORY IN THE AFTERNOON. IN EITHER CASE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING WILL TRANSPORT WARM DRY AIR NORTH WITH
AFTERNOON MIN RH IN THE 30-35% RANGE (LIKELY TOO HIGH DUE TO A
LACK OF CAM INFLUENCE AS DISCUSSED ABOVE) WITH OVER LAPPING 25KT
GUSTING 35KT WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE TO REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN OUR WEST/SW THURSDAY BUT MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. FURTHER WEST IN ND PRECIP ON THE WEST/SW
SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE OF A MORE FROZEN VARIETY WITH SNOW WITH
SNOW OVERLAPPING WITH STRONG WINDS. WHILE WE INITIALLY START
OUT WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS QUICKLY
FALL FROM THE 60S AND 70S AROUND NOON TO THE 30S BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE (30% CHANCE) FOR ANY ACCUMULATING
SNOW IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
THINGS REMAINING SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS THE UPPER LOW STALLS OVER US/NORTH OF US WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD AND HIGHS LOOKING TO STAY IN THE 40S AND
50S. LOWS WILL AT THE SAME TIME WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S SO FOR
YOU AMBITIOUS GARDENERS BE SURE TO BRING IN ANY SENSITIVE
PLANTS YOU MAY ALREADY PLANTED. SEASONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY START UP IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
NORTH WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH, AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE
TUESDAY MORNING, RANGING FROM 7 TO 14 KNOTS BY MIDDAY. MINIMAL
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...LYNCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page