581
FXUS63 KFGF 131222
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
722 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVING EAST THRU SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THIS WEEKEND. TRENDS ARE A TAD NORTH WITH NOW A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF ADVISORY IMPACTS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA AND 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF WARNING IMPACT. WINTER
STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THIS SYSTEM PER WPC CONF CALL COLLAB.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
TODAYS HEADLINES HAVE ALL EXPIRED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 504 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
DROPPED ALL THE WARNINGS FOR HIGH WIND AND WINTER WEATHER AND
ONLY THING LEFT IF A WINTER WX ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED FOR
LINGERING DRIFTING SNOW IMPACTS. CONF CALL HELD WITH WPC WINTER
DESK TO COORIDINATE AND EXPANSION OF WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SAT
LATE AFTN/EVENING INTO SUNDAY FOR FAR SOUTHERN FCST AREA AS
CHANCES FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW HAS INCREASED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A SURFACE LOW CENTERED
ROUGHLY OVER WILLISTON DOWN THROUGH FORT BERTHOLD RESERVATION.
THIS IS CONNECTED TO A THERMAL RIDGE BRINGING TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND 50S TO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH STRONG WINDS
ALREADY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN MONTANA BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH.
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION SNOW IS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF NORTH DAKOTA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
EASTWARD. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, HEAVY SNOW IS
STILL EXPECTED WITH A SWATH OF 2-8 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY ALONG
AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2.
AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES, WINDS ALOFT INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY. VWP OBSERVATIONS INDICATES ROUGHLY 80-90 KNOTS OF
WIND ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE MAXIMUM OF THE JET SHOULD PASS
TO OUR SOUTH BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS, WINDS WILL INCREASE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, BRINGING HIGH WINDS
AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. WINDS GREATLY IMPROVE
AFTER 7 AM TOMORROW, WITH ONLY LINGERING PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS EXPECTED. ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD
EXIT THE ENTIRE REGION BY EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT THE LATEST
FOR OUR EASTERN ZONES, BRINGING LIMITED IMPACTS FRIDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL COME LATE THIS
WEEKEND AS ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM DEVELOPS, BUT THE CENTER OF
WHICH PASSES TO OUR SOUTH. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN OUR
SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES AND WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR ADDITIONAL
STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS, BLOWING SNOW IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON
THE STATE OF THE SNOWPACK BY THEN. THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
WARMING BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING TAKES HOLD
OVER THE NORTHWEST. UNTIL THEN, WE REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO
SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW WHICH CARRY A LOW PREDICTABILITY.
..WINTER STORM AND HIGH WINDS
THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BASED ON QG
FORCING TRENDS ALOFT. AS THIS OCCURS, ISENTROPIC ASCENT
CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING SNOWFALL WILL PUSH MORE INTO OUR AREA.
THE STRONG NATURE OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING, COUPLED WITH STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS, WILL ALLOW FOR ORGANIZED BANDING BRINGING
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.50-1+ INCH PER HOUR TO
AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. BASED ON WEBCAM
OBSERVATIONS, THIS APPEARS TO BE ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS WHERE 700MB FRONTOGENESIS IS MAXIMIZED.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE FRONTOGENESIS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL TEND TO FALL TOWARDS THE HIGHER
TOTAL POTENTIAL OF 6-8 INCHES WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. MORE
BROADLY, SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN SNOWFALL WILL BRING A SWATH OF AT
LEAST 2 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 WITH THE EMBEDDED
6-8 INCHES WHERE BANDING IS. WHERE THE 6-8 INCHES FALLS HAS A
LOWER PREDICTABILITY THAN THE BROAD 2 INCHES THANKS TO THE
INHERENT LOW PREDICTABILITY OF FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
PROPAGATION. REGARDLESS, EXPECT MODERATE TO MAJOR IMPACTS TO
TRAVEL PRIMARILY DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES CREATING WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS, WITH AT LEAST SOME BLOWING SNOW ONGOING.
AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AROUND GRAND FORKS, WINDS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE WEST OF THE LOW. DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON
LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE SURFACE LOW, WITH THOSE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW EXPERIENCING STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW APPROACHES 115 MICROBARS/KILOMETER, WHICH
IS VERY STRONG. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AT LEAST 40 MPH ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 60 MPH GUSTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS, HOWEVER, WILL BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGEST COLD
AIR ADVECTION, CONVECTION, AND BEHIND THE SURFACE PRESSURE
TROUGH. HERE, AN 80-90 KNOT JET ALOFT EXISTS WHICH MAY MIX DOWN
GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH. SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ALSO IS EXPECTED
TO EXIST IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, SO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THIS SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH.
THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE THREAT OF DANGEROUS WIND GUSTS
UP TO 80 MPH. DUE TO THE NECESSITY OF CONVECTION TO CONTRIBUTE
TO THIS, WHERE THIS OCCURS WILL BE LOCALIZED AND ALSO CARRY A
LOWER PREDICTABILITY HORIZON, SIMILAR TO HOW SEVERE WEATHER IS
FOR US. WINDS WILL PEAK GENERALLY AFTER 6PM BEFORE RAPIDLY
TAPERING OFF AFTER 6 AM.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WINDS AND ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO BLOWING SNOW ISSUES, INCLUDING BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WHERE FALLING SNOW IS ONGOING. AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES, THERE
WILL REMAIN WEAKER SYNOPTIC FORCING BRINGING CONTINUED LIGHT
SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHIN AREAS OF
LIGHT SNOW AND WITH ACCUMULATED SNOW OF 2 INCHES OR GREATER,
WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH WILL EASILY BE ENOUGH TO PUSH
BLOWING SNOW PROBABILITIES TO 100%. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF 2
INCHES OF BLOWABLE SNOW, ANY FALLING SNOW WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CREATE PERIODS OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY IN OPEN
COUNTRY. THE HEAVIEST IMPACTS WILL BE FELT BETWEEN 6 PM AND 12
AM, WITH A QUICK TAPERING OFF AS WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE AFTER THIS PERIOD BUT WE SHOULD START
TO SEE IMPACTS IMPROVE AS THE WINDS DIMINISH.
CONDITIONS FOR EVERYONE WILL IMPROVE BY 7AM FOR MOST, WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW LINGERING IN THE LAKE OF THE WOODS/BELTRAMI
AREA THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. BY THE AFTERNOON, EVERYONE
SHOULD BE WELL PAST THIS SYSTEM WITH IMPACTS BECOMING MINIMAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
SKIES ARE ACTUALLY MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY IN AN AREA
WHERE COLDER AND DRIER AIR IS ADVECTING SOUTHWARD WHICH IS WITH
IN THE RRV AND PARTS OF NW MN. AUTOMATED SENSORS THOUGH SHOWING
SOME CEILINGS DUE TO ICE CRYSTALS. WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER
TODAY AND THEN LIGHT TONIGHT. IDEA IS FOR CLEARING TO WORK EAST
AS WELL AND MVFR CLOUDS EXITING DVL REGION TOO THRU THE MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ049-052-053.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ029.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ030>032-040.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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