939
FXUS63 KFSD 240322
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1022 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION SPREADING
OUT AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. BONA FIDE RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM HAS
REMAINED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR IN PLACE, THOUGH CURRENT RADAR WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME OF
THIS MAY EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
COME OVER NORTHWESTERN IA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHEN
FORCING INCREASES AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL AREAS, RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO AROUND 40 ALONG
THE MO RIVER INTO NORTHWESTERN IA.
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING DRIER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION, WITH
LOWS DIPPING BACK TO BELOW FREEZING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S. IT WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN HOWEVER, WITH RAPID
WARMING BY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION
AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST. HIGHS ON THAT DAY WILL RISE INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE
60S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA - WITH LOWER 70S THROUGH THE MO RIVER
VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MODEL
DIFFERENCES. THOUGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COULD EVEN HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS WITH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP WITH HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY,
THOUGH THE GREATER RISK STILL LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF I-90.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
UPPER LOW OVER NEBRASKA WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST TONIGHT, PULLING MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR SIOUX CITY.
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH AS FAR NORTH AS SIOUX FALLS, AND
LOWER CLOUDS MAY ALSO NOT REACH AS FAR NORTH.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY, WITH LOWER
CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR SIOUX CITY. EXPECTATIONS OF LOWER CEILINGS
DROPPING NORTHWARD SUNDAY EVENING AS NORTH WINDS RETURN.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...DUX
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