741
FXUS63 KFSD 030302
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1002 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW RAIN CHANCES: A FEW SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 THIS MORNING (<15%
CHANCE) AND DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING TOMORROW (30%
CHANCE). RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.
- WINDY AND WARM SATURDAY: GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BUILD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SATURDAY. ISOLATED 40 MPH WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, HIGHEST OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS PUSHES
HIGHS TOWARDS THE 70S.
- COOL, SUNNY SUNDAY: A FRONT PASSING SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS COOL
AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WITH A BIT OF MORNING VALLEY FOG.
- PROLONGED DRY AND MILD PATTERN: NEXT WEEK LOOKS EXCEPTIONALLY
QUIET AND DRY, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND LOW PROBABILITY (<20%) OF MEANINGFUL RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SHOWERS HAVE EXITED OFF TO OUR EAST AS THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
HAVE LEFT THE AREA, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING.
A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT,
WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A BIT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THOUGH
MOISTURE IS LACKING. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED, BUT IF SOME
CLOUDS ARE ABLE DEVELOP, A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE SQUEEZED OUT OF
THEM (<5% CHANCE).
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE DAYTIME HOURS SATURDAY MORNING, A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER 700 MB WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE IN PLACE, CAN'T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. A DRY-SUB CLOUD LAYER WILL RESULT
IN MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY FALLING AS SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS POTENTIAL AS WINDS A FEW HUNDRED FEET
ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE AROUND 45-50 MPH. SO IF A SHOWER/SPRINKLE
CAN DEVELOP, IT COULD MIX DOWN THOSE KINDS OF WINDS TO THE
SURFACE WITH ALL THE DRY AIR BENEATH THE CLOUDS, BUT CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPMENT IS LOW (<15%). BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OTHERWISE ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 40 MPH MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE COTEAU DES PRAIRIES. CAN'T ENTIRELY
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED WIND GUST TO 45 MPH, ESPECIALLY IF THOSE
AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS DEVELOP, BUT WITH THE VERY LOW CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: MID-LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED WARM
ADVECTION ON THE 700:600 MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST. SATELLITE SHOWERS INCREASING CLOUD GROWTH NORTH OF I-90,
SO ANTICIPATING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TO SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS CLOUD COVER EASTWARD, FOCUSED PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-90
TOWARDS HIGHWAY 14 (HURON, BROOKINGS, MARSHALL) INTO VERY EARLY
EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.
TONIGHT: LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING AN INCREASED SPG TO KEEP A
RATHER BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND THROUGH THE AREA. UNLIKE FRIDAY,
MORNING, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER THROUGH THE REGION.
THE HIGHEST GUSTS MAY BE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY: A SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY CRAWLS EAST ON SATURDAY, KEEPING
BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE CWA.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF STRONGER MIXING FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW 40+ MPH GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE
(HIGHEST IN THE RIDGE AREAS). WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, AND DEEP MIXING WE SHOULD SEE A RISE IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. THE POPULATED NBM SITS AT THE 75TH
PERCENTILE, BUT WITH THE INCREASED MIXING AND WARM LOW-LVLS WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS A BIT WARMER AND HAVE NUDGED US
INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN A FEW AREAS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEW
POINTS SLIGHTLY. THE ARRIVAL A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE BY MID AFTERNOON
COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14 IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO SW MINNESOTA IN
THE EVENING. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE PATCHY FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS WEAKEN.
SUNDAY: COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY, FEATURING
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS SHOULD BE AN ABSOLUTELY
BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
MONDAY-FRIDAY: A VERY QUIET FORECAST REMAINS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD MID-LVL RIDGING OVER THE CONUS FORCES STRONGER JET STREAM
ENERGY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW
FORCING ANY MEANINGFUL GULF AIR AWAY FROM THE AREA, AND NO ABILITY
TO BRING ANY TROPICAL AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC, WE'RE EXPECTING A
DRY WEEK. IN FACT THE LATEST GEFS/ECE ENSEMBLES PAINT LESS THAN A
20% CHANCE FOR >0.10" OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS IN THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL WEAK
FRONTS THROUGH THE WEEK. A RETURN OF GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY MARKS THE
FIRST DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY FAVORED TO
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE REGION, AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THOSE BREEZIER DAYS EVEN WARMER.
850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE
75TH PERCENTILE THROUGH THE WEEK, FURTHER SUPPORTING THE ARRIVAL
OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, TURNING
MORE SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SUSTAINED WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10-20 KTS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25 KTS
EXPECTED IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE COTEAU DES PRAIRIES. GUSTS IN THESE HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS WILL PUSH TOWARDS 40 KTS DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE, GUSTS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE
AROUND 25-30 KTS.
ALSO TONIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE INTENSIFYING OVER THE
AREA, LEADING TO LLWS CONCERNS AT KFSD AND KHON LATER TONIGHT
AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THIS WIND SHIFT CONTINUING EAST OF I-29 JUST
AFTER THIS PERIOD ENDS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...SAMET
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