954
FXUS63 KFSD 080148
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
848 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW UPWARDS CLIMB HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK.
- PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF SPRINKLES SATURDAY, THE PROBABILITY OF >0.10" OF
RAIN REMAIN NEAR 30% THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, STILL HAVING TROUBLE RECOVERING
RELATIVE HUMIDITY-WISE (RH) WITH MANY OBSERVATIONS SITES SHOWING
VALUES IN THE 20-28 PERCENT RANGE AS OF 8PM. HOWEVER, THINGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES DECREASE
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR THE NIGHT. LOOKING INTO FRIDAY,
MORE WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE AHEAD WITH MANY AREAS REACH THE
LOW TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. WITH CONDITIONS CONTINUING TO TREND
DRIER, DECIDED TO MIX IN SOME OF THE RAP13/HRRR INTO OUR DEW POINTS
SINCE ALL INDICATIONS POINT TO SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY ABET
SLIGHTLY WARMER. WITH THIS IN MIND, EXPECT DEW POINTS IN THE 18-25
PERCENT RANGE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE COULD BE A LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK AT TIMES, GREENING FUELS WILL LIKELY KEEP
ANY FIRE CONCERNS IN THE LOW TO MODERATE CATEGORIES. LASTLY, CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT FEW SPRINKLES WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SO DECIDED TO INTRODUCE THEM FROM
EARLY TO LATE MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: A BEAUTIFUL MAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL NEAR
20% IN QUITE A FEW AREAS, BUT LIGHTER WINDS PREVENT ANY FIRE
DANGER.
TONIGHT: SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT
A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WILL
SPREAD MID-UPR CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA OVERNIGHT. A
SPRINKLE OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG, BUT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FRIDAY: A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE CWA LATE MORNING
ON FRIDAY, PUSHING A FAVORABLE WARMER WESTERLY WIND THROUGH THE
AREA. DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON AOA 8000 FT AGL WILL PROMOTE
BOTH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S, BUT ALSO A
DROP IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. WIND GUST MAY APPROACH THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE WITH RH NEAR 25% AGAIN, BUT GIVEN RELATIVE GREENNESS,
FIRE DANGER RISKS REMAIN LOW.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: REALLY NO CHANGES OR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE
WEEKEND FORECAST. THE LIKELY SCENARIO IS A FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SLOWING THE UPWARD RISE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY MOVE THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST AGAIN EARLY ON SUNDAY, WITH NO IMPACTS,
OTHER THAN HOLDING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.
NEXT WEEK: A FAIRLY QUIET WEEK IS AHEAD, WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE RAIN CHANCES SPRINKLED IN. THE BROAD
THEME OF THE WEEK IS A SLOWLY EXPANDING MID-LVL RIDGE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL US. MOST OF MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER
BUT RATHER WINDY DUE TO AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE ARRIVAL OF A FAIRLY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER TOP THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH, WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY MEANINGFUL (>0.10")
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN FOCUSED EAST OF I-29.
PERHAPS A VERY SUBTLE COOLDOWN ON TUESDAY WITH A DEFINITE SHIFT IN
HISTOGRAM DATA INDICATING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES
IN THE 65-70 RANGE THAN 70+. THOSE PROBABILITIES BEGIN TO SHIFT
WARMER BY THE MIDDLE AND ESPECIALLY END OF NEXT WEEK AS WE'LL
BEGIN TO SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S, WITH
20-30% PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS ABOVE 80 MOVING NORTHWARD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SECOND RISK FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK ARRIVES IN THE THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME, THOUGH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION CHANCE. NEVERTHELESS, HERE'S A LITTLE CLIMATE TIDBIT
FOR THE DAY. THE FIRST 7 DAYS OF MAY WILL BE THE DRIEST ON RECORD
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CLIMATE SITES IN THE CWA. AFTER A DRY
WEEKEND, BY THE END OF MONDAY, PRECIPITATION IN MOST AREAS MAY BE 1
TO 1.5" BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS TAF PERIOD.
BESIDES SOME UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS THIS EVENING, QUIETER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST. OTHERWISE, LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...05
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