695
FXUS63 KFSD 250320
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1020 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
1. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON.
2. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.
3. NEXT RISK FOR ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WOULD FAVOR NEXT
THURSDAY.
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THIS AFTERNOON: INITIAL SURGE OF MID-LVL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT
CLOUDS FROM BROAD WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WITH A FAIRLY LIGHT WIND ARE STRUGGLING
TO RISE, WITH HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.
TONIGHT: A MID-LVL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASE PVA MAY LEAD TO A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING. SOUNDING SUGGEST THE
EFFECTIVE MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS RATHER THIN, WITH SOME MODEST DRY
AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THAT SAID, HRRR/RAP AND OTHER SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION. FEEL THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER MAY LIMIT OVERALL QPF,
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW TO SPITS OF
FREEZING RAIN. ANY IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. FURTHER WEST, STRATUS
AND FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH THIS
STRATUS THEN PUSHING TOWARDS THE I-29 AREAS BY DAYBREAK. HAVE
INTRODUCED FOG TO THE COUNTIES ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN CENTRAL
SD.
SATURDAY: ANOTHER CHILLY LATE MARCH DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION
ON SATURDAY AS WE FIND OURSELVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF MID-LVL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LOW-CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY 5
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023
SUNDAY: THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE (ABSENT THE NAM) KEEPS
ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMA SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT THE NAM AS A SOLUTION, GIVEN A FEW
GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO PULLING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH, BUT
IT IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. A BREEZY NORTH WIND WILL PUSH LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS TO 20S, AND NORTHERLY LOW-LVL FLOW
ALSO IS LIKELY TO PULL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
MORNING. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUN IN THE AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: NUISANCE LITTLE WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN US TO START NEXT WEEK. WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE
REGION, THIS IS ALSO LIKELY TO LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MID-WEEK. A LOW END RISK FOR LIGHT SNOW MAY
ARRIVE MONDAY, BUT AGAIN WITH NO STRONG MOISTURE CONNECTION FOR THIS
SYSTEM, ANY QPF WILL BE ON THE LOW END. AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS RISE FOR
TUESDAY, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE THE SLIGHT RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LVL
FLOW AND A RETREATING WARM FRONT. ANY SURGE IN WARM AIR WILL BE
MINIMAL HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.
INCREASING LIFT ALONG THE 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATION OVER
THE TRI-STATE AREA WEDNESDAY MAY BRING A BRIEF RISK FOR MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE REGION. THE UNDERCUTTING OF DRY AIR AND LOW-
LVL JET SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP THIS PRECIPITATION
CHANCE LIMITED TO JUST THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: THERE REMAINS STRONG AGREEMENT IN DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR AN INCREASING PRECIPITATION RISK THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CROSS THE ROCKIES LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND WILL INCREASE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
FOR 0.10" OF PRECIPITATION ARE OVER 70%, WHICH SUPPORT THE HIGHER
POPS IN THE POPULATED NBM GUIDANCE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE
WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMES REESTABLISHED, AND THEN WHERE
THE RESULTANT HIGHER QPF VALUES COULD BE FOUND. WE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE MONTH.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023
PATCHY MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 THROUGH THE
OVENRIGHT HOURS. MVFR AND IFR STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH MVFR NEAR AND EAST OF THE
JAMES RIVER POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE
MOST PARTS NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST MN SHOUDL REMAIN VFR BUT
SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST MN.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...08
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