014
FXUS63 KFSD 120528
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1228 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A STRAY THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY EVENING NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED, BUT WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
- ANOTHER ROUND IS POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 18. SEVERE WEATHER IS ONCE AGAIN NOT
ANTICIPATED, BUT SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45-50 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE.
- AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP FRIDAY, THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA ARE
MOVING INTO THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE
ALREADY LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO WANE.
OTHERWISE, A QUIET NIGHT IS AHEAD WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND
DIMINISHING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE CLEARING SKIES
AND RECENT RAINFALL, FOG IS UNLIKELY TO DEVELOP GIVEN THAT WINDS
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED HEADING INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
A WARMER DAY IS IN STORE FOR FRIDAY AS MORE SUNSHINE IS
EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF
THE DAY AND MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
LOOK TO DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES,
BUT THE MAIN CONCERN LOOKS TO BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE
SHOWERS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEEP MIXING WHICH MAY HELP BRING DOWN SOME
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 55 MPH TO THE SURFACE. THE MAIN
FACTOR THAT WILL LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS IS THAT
SHOWERS MAY NOT REALLY GET GOING UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNSET, WHEN
THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL INVERSION BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AND THIS MAY
HELP PREVENT SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS FROM MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THESE SHOWERS
DEVELOP WEST OR EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER, BUT LOOK FOR THIS
ACTIVITY TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING, EXITING
INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY 11 PM TO MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER WAVE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS LOW AND SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF ENHANCED STRETCHING POTENTIAL AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH AXIS. AS UPDRAFTS FOR
SHOWERS ARE FORMING A FEW BRIEF, WEAK FUNNELS MAY ALSO FORM. AREA
MOST LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY FUNNELS IS NORTH OF I-90
WITH THE BETTER PROBABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14. SHOWERS
EXIT EAST BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. COOLER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS FLOW IN BEHIND THE TROUGH, LIMITING OUR HIGHS TODAY.
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA POSSIBLY SEEING GUSTS TO 35 MPH. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, THE NBM IS CONTINUING TO COME IN A BIT TOO WARM. THERE
IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COOLER AIR WILL
PENETRATE. IN GENERAL, ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WILL BE IN THE LOW
70S DECREASING TO THE UPPER 60S AS YOU MOVE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE MID 70S AS YOU MOVE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S.
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER PATTERN BECOME MORE ZONAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. FOR MOST OF THE REGION DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH
A FEW 90S SPRINKLED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH WILL APPROACH
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WAA WILL PUSH NORTH ON THE
NOSE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH, ENHANCING ASCENT IN AN AREA OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG HIGHWAY 14 IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM AS A RESULT. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE BORDERLINE TO LOW
WITH ONLY ABOUT A 10% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE. THIS MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED ORGANIZED UPDRAFT OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. DEEP, INVERTED V SOUNDINGS INDICATE
STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 50+ MPH ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. STORMS EXIT
TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, DRAGGING AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
WITH IT. TO THE SOUTHWEST, A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND WARM
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST. BETWEEN THE TWO AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE WILL FORM SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 18 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
80. IN THIS AREA INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE
OVER AN AREA OF 45-55 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE, MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 18. SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY NIGHT'S STORMS, THE CONVECTIVE SET UP IS ON THE BORDERLINE TO
LOW SIDE FOR SEVERE WEATHER (10% PROBABILITY). STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH.
SHOWERS MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH. THE STRONGEST
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT, IN THE 70S TO POSSIBLY LOW 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI RIVER AREA.
SUNDAY A COUPLE REINFORCING PUSHES OF CAA COMES BEHIND A SERIES OF
DRY SHORT WAVES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AND DIURNALLY BREEZY. AFTERNOON GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25
MPH ARE EXPECTED. MONDAY A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS IN LOW AGREEMENT ON
PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE WAVE AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS. AS OF NOW, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER RISKS APPEAR LOW, BUT THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY.
HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY, IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. IN ADDITION, DEW POINTS WILL BE
LOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN 50 F AND AS LOW AS THE MID 30S F. COOLER
HIGHS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE FOR GOOD CONDITIONS TO BE WORKING
AND PLAYING OUTSIDE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK HIGHS
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S WITH THE RETURN OF HIGHER HUMIDITY
VALUES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL TURN MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS STRENGTHENING UP TO 15-30 KNOTS. LATEST HI-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF I-90. SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING PRECISELY WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AND TRACK ALONG WITH THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS. FOR NOW, THE
BEST TIMING FOR THESE SHOWERS IS THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION OF THE SHOWERS IN A TAF AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL INCLUDE THEM ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES. A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SHOWERS AS WELL. THE
WEAKENING SHOWERS ALONG WITH WEAKENING WINDS WILL FINISH OUT THE TAF
PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...MEYERS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page