939  
FXUS63 KFSD 240322  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
1022 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN  
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION SPREADING  
OUT AHEAD OF THE FEATURE. BONA FIDE RAIN WITH THE SYSTEM HAS  
REMAINED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOW LEVEL  
DRY AIR IN PLACE, THOUGH CURRENT RADAR WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME OF  
THIS MAY EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO THE GROUND OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER  
VALLEY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL  
COME OVER NORTHWESTERN IA LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHEN  
FORCING INCREASES AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH EASTERN NE/WESTERN IA.  
LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING OVER ALL AREAS, RANGING  
FROM THE MID 30S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TO AROUND 40 ALONG  
THE MO RIVER INTO NORTHWESTERN IA.  
 
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING DRIER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT  
AFTER THE SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH  
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH  
HIGHS MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
COLDER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION, WITH  
LOWS DIPPING BACK TO BELOW FREEZING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE  
THE COLDEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO  
MID 40S. IT WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN HOWEVER, WITH RAPID  
WARMING BY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION  
AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES EAST. HIGHS ON THAT DAY WILL RISE INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED WARMING FOR WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE  
60S OVER THE ENTIRE AREA - WITH LOWER 70S THROUGH THE MO RIVER  
VALLEY.  
 
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO BE LOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MODEL  
DIFFERENCES. THOUGH RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
COULD EVEN HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF THUNDER ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND  
THURSDAY IF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS WITH INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA.  
MODELS CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP WITH HEAVIER RAIN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY,  
THOUGH THE GREATER RISK STILL LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF I-90.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1020 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
UPPER LOW OVER NEBRASKA WILL PIVOT NORTHEAST TONIGHT, PULLING MVFR  
TO IFR CEILINGS NORTHWARD ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR SIOUX CITY.  
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH AS FAR NORTH AS SIOUX FALLS, AND  
LOWER CLOUDS MAY ALSO NOT REACH AS FAR NORTH.  
 
MOST OF THE AREA WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY, WITH LOWER  
CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR SIOUX CITY. EXPECTATIONS OF LOWER CEILINGS  
DROPPING NORTHWARD SUNDAY EVENING AS NORTH WINDS RETURN.  
 

 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JM  
LONG TERM...JM  
AVIATION...DUX  
 
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