146  
FXUS63 KFSD 210336  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
1036 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019  
 
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH APPROACHING UPPER  
TROUGH TO THE WEST. WEAKLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH  
1500-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON,  
STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED, BUT REALLY LACKING A  
TRIGGER ACROSS THE AREA. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM  
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT THREAT IS LOW. AS THE TROUGH WORKS  
THROUGH AFTER 06Z, SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE. 0-6 KM  
BULK SHEAR IS 20-25 KNOTS, SO GENERALLY EXPECTING STORMS TO REMAIN  
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. BEST CHANCES FOR A STRONGER STORM WILL BE WEST  
OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH MARGINAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION  
FAIRLY QUICKLY, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL  
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 
MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD  
QUICKLY COME TO AN END WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS  
WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST, BUT SHOULD OTHERWISE BE A  
PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019  
 
COOLER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY  
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. WARMER BUT DRY CONDITIONS  
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS  
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BREEZIER  
CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY  
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE  
WESTERN US, CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS  
THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019  
 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH  
THE BETTER CHANCES FROM THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD.  
ALONG WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS, MVFR STRATUS WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE  
AREA INTO MID MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY  
ON SATURDAY, GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BT  
LONG TERM...BT  
AVIATION...JM  
 
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