146
FXUS63 KFSD 210336
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1036 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH APPROACHING UPPER
TROUGH TO THE WEST. WEAKLY CAPPED ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
1500-2000 J/KG OF SURFACE BASED CAPE. AS THE EVENING WEARS ON,
STORMS SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED, BUT REALLY LACKING A
TRIGGER ACROSS THE AREA. CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BUT THREAT IS LOW. AS THE TROUGH WORKS
THROUGH AFTER 06Z, SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE. 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR IS 20-25 KNOTS, SO GENERALLY EXPECTING STORMS TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. BEST CHANCES FOR A STRONGER STORM WILL BE WEST
OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH MARGINAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
FAIRLY QUICKLY, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. RAIN SHOULD
QUICKLY COME TO AN END WITH SKIES CLEARING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST, BUT SHOULD OTHERWISE BE A
PLEASANT LATE SUMMER DAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019
COOLER AIR SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
LEADING TO TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. WARMER BUT DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BREEZIER
CONDITIONS DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
WESTERN US, CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST, WHICH COULD BE POTENTIALLY HEAVY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT FRI SEP 20 2019
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES FROM THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD.
ALONG WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS, MVFR STRATUS WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE
AREA INTO MID MORNING ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY
ON SATURDAY, GUSTING 20 TO 25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...JM
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