269
FXUS63 KFSD 180756
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
256 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, FROM
10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW (LESS THAN 10%) UNTIL
LATE WEEK.
- CONTINUED DRY, WARM, AND PERIODICALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS COULD
LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS BY LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, WITH MINOR INCREASES TO
TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS MORNING, SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE REMAINED QUITE BREEZY (20 TO 30
MPH), ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 40
MPH. WE'RE STARTING THE DAY MUCH MORE MILD THAN YESTERDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE
40S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE MORNING AND
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SPG RELAXES AND THE LLJ WEAKENS. HIGHS IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70 TODAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. WEAK SURFACE
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT; NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.
MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNING. HIGHS
SLIGHTLY COOLER DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND THE SLOW RETURN
OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATER IN THE DAY.
LOOKING AHEAD, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH MID WEEK, LESS THAN 20%
OVER NORTHWESTERN IA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A JET MAX
TRACKS BY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE TONIGHT, WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THE HIGHER WINDS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING MILDER LOWS TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY WARMING INTO THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S, WARMEST WEST OF THE JAMES. AS THIS JET MAX SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA, A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA AND WILL HELP TO
DIMINISH THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE
LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S, BUT NOT AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING. WITH A SOMEWHAT SLOW RECOVERY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER AND CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL
NORMALS IN THE LOWER 60S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND BRINGS WARMER
READINGS BACK INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE 65 TO 70
DEGREES.
A QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST, BUT THE
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN NORTHWEST IA.
VERY MILD AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS VERY LIKELY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EACH DAY. WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON A FEW OF THE DAYS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S, ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS FUELS CONTINUE TO CURE AND HARVESTING ACTIVITIES PEAK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED LATE THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KNOTS. ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 35 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
DESPITE THE BREEZY SURFACE WINDS, SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)
IS IN PROGRESS DUE TO WINDS AT ABOUT 2,000FT ALOFT STRENGTHENING TO
40+ KNOTS. THE LLWS WILL WANE TOMORROW MORNING. A BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO ABOUT 25
KNOTS. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND BE
MUCH WEAKER IN MAGNITUDE. WINDS OVERALL WILL THROUGH TOMORROW
EVENING TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SG
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...MEYERS
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