442
FXUS63 KFSD 020121
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
821 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WE'RE ON TRACK FOR OUR FIRST WIDESPREAD FREEZE OF THE SEASON
MAINLY DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. AS
A RESULT, A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 1AM-8AM CDT.
- A FEW SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER, ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIMITED.
- AFTER ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND, MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 819 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE LAST OF THE CUMULUS FADING
AWAY OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD LEADING TO LIGHT TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WE ARE STILL LOOKING TO SEE A WIDESPREAD FREEZE
BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING THUS FAR
AS EXPECTED AND SO THE CURRENT FREEZE WARNING LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE. REMEMBER TO TAKE THE STEPS TO PROTECT SENSITIVE
VEGETATION BEFORE YOU HEAD TO BED FOR THE NIGHT!
AFTER THE CHILLY START TO OUR SATURDAY, SHOULD WARM UP NICELY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES. LOOK
FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S, WARMEST NEAR AND
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: ANOTHER MILD DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS
THE AREA, A BEAUTIFUL DAY CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS.
EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE EVENING AS A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD WHICH WILL US TO OUR MAIN CONCERNS. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY, THE COMBINATION OF LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS AND NEAR TO
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES (28-32 DEGREES) WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MAIN DIFFERENCE
COMES WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS UNLIKE YESTERDAY. AFTER
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN
EFFECT FROM 1AM-8AM CDT FOR MOST AREAS. WITH THIS IN MIND, MAKE SURE
TO BRING IN/COVER ANY SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION AND TO TURN OFF
YOUR SPRINKLERS FOR THE NIGHT.
SATURDAY & SUNDAY: LOOKING INTO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND,
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO
FLATTEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER BY
SATURDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND INCREASING MID-LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) HELP HIGHS RETURN TO THE 60S AND LOW 70S.
WHILE A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BY LATE EVENING,
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SPITS TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. NONETHELESS,
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED (IF ANY) GIVEN THE LACK OF SATURATION
DEPICTED IN SOUNDINGS. A SIMILAR SET UP WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER PUSH OF WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL HELP HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACH
THE 60S TO LOW 70S. HOWEVER, A SLIGHTLY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING
THROUGH STARTING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A
FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS BY MONDAY MORNING. LASTLY, THE INFLUX OF
COLDER AIR COULD AFFECT TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT KEEPING HIGHS
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE THRESHOLDS (LOW TO UPPER 50S) THROUGH THE
MIDWEEK.
NEXT WEEKEND: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL PERSIST ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AS THE HUDSON BAY TROUGH
STRENGTHENS AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP US LOCKED INTO PREDOMINANTLY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH MULTIPLE SYSTEM ROTATING THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, WITH MEDIUM TO LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO SUGGEST LIMITED MOISTURE WITH EACH WAVE; NOT
EXPECTED MUCH PAST A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCES (<30%) ON
MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY THURSDAY. LASTLY, AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN
TO START THE WEEK; WE'LL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER FROM THURSDAY
ONWARDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON CU WILL
FADE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, AND WINDS WILL TURN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY, GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90 DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE NEAR THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA, BUT REMAIN VFR.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
050-052>071.
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ013-014.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...SAMET
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