918  
FXUS63 KFSD 052317  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
617 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY EVENING,  
MAINLY NEAR AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THE RISK FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER IS LOW; HOWEVER, WEAK FUNNELS OR A LANDSPOUT MAY BE  
POSSIBLE WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY (WEST OF JAMES  
RIVER VALLEY) AND MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. SOME STRONGER STORMS  
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN.  
 
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, WARMING SOME BY THE MIDDLE  
OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
REST OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAKER  
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING HOURS. POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND UNSUBSTANTIAL DCAPE  
KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW BUT LIGHTNING WILL STILL BE A CONCERN  
FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE OTHER THING WE'VE BEEN  
MONITORING IS A GOOD OVERLAP OF SURFACE VORTICITY AND 0-3 KM MLCAPE,  
ALONG WITH NST PARAMETER VALUES OF 1-4 ALLOWING FOR SOME  
POTENTIAL OF A WEAK FUNNEL CLOUD OR LANDSPOUT UNTIL CLOSER TO  
THE SUNSET HOURS. THIS ATMOSPHERIC POTENTIAL HAS BEEN CONFIRMED  
WITH RECENT REPORTS IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.  
 
TONIGHT: PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT SOUTH OF THE HWY 20  
CORRIDOR BY SUNSET WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER, LIGHT WINDS,  
AND BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.  
 
SUNDAY: EXPECTATION IS STILL THAT A DECAYING MCS MAY TRY TO APPROACH  
OUR WESTERN COVERAGE AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY ALTHOUGH LIKELY WILL  
ENCOUNTER DIFFICULTY MAKING IT MUCH PAST THE MO RIVER WITH A  
LACK OF INSTABILITY. THIS MAY HOWEVER KEEP SOME SHOWER CHANCES  
IN THE FORECAST NEAR/WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER ALONG WITH  
ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH A NORTHERLY WIND USHERING IN LOWER  
DEWPOINTS, CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE WITH TEMPERATURES  
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.  
 
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: FAIRLY ROBUST WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE ZONAL FLOW  
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL  
LIKELY BE OUR NEXT FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH SHEAR AND  
INSTABILITY PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR  
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, PERHAPS FAVORING THE MO RIVER VALLEY  
WHERE THE SHARPER THETA-E GRADIENT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO RESIDE. SPC  
CURRENTLY DELINEATES MOST OF OUR COVERAGE AREA IN A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5  
RISK.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MODELS AGREE THAT RIDGING DEVELOPS ACROSS  
THE ROCKIES AND SLIDES EAST BY MID WEEK. AGREEMENT THEN FADES  
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THIS RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BE INTERRUPTED BY SOME  
SORT OF WAVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. STILL TIME TO REFINE THE DETAILS  
SO JUST LOWER END CHANCE LEVEL (30-40%) STORM CHANCES RIGHT NOW BUT  
THIS WILL ALSO BE A PERIOD TO MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER  
PER ML AND AI PROBABILITIES. WITHIN THE RIDGING, TEMPERATURES LIKELY  
WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO 90S, BEFORE RETREATING BEHIND THE  
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAVE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
 
RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF I-29 ARE DIMINISHING AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF THE  
AREA AROUND 06.02Z. CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY AT VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS.  
SOME LINGERING CLOUDS MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE THEM TO MVFR, BUT AS THE  
EVENING CONTINUES CLOUDS LOOK TO DISSIPATE. WINDS WILL DECREASE  
TONIGHT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THE REST OF THE PERIOD FOR AREAS EAST OF THE  
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WEST OF THE JAMES CLOUDS WILL BUILD IN AGAIN  
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  
CURRENTLY, THE ONLY SITE AT RISK FOR RAIN SUNDAY MORNING IS KHON,  
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS OCCURRING.  
 

 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...KALIN  
AVIATION...AJP  
 
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