532
FXUS63 KFSD 221110
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
610 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.
- A FEW SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL WILL RETURN FROM THE
MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
TODAY & TONIGHT: ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS AHEAD! TAKING A
LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, WEAKENING AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARDS AHEAD OF AN ULL CURRENTLY
SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. WHILE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-29 EARLY THIS
MORNING, EXPECT ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY TO LIFT OUT OF OUR AREA
CLOSER TO 09Z AS THE ULL PROGRESSES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL BY
DAYBREAK. CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST MAKING WAY FOR SOME GRADUAL WARMING THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON, EXPECT OUR
DAILY HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S FOR DAY WITH THE
WARMEST CONDITIONS SOUTH OF I-90.
FROM HERE, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
GRADUALLY DECREASING OUR DEW POINTS INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN 35-45 PERCENT RANGE.
AS THESE VALUES BEING COLLOCATED WITH INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF I-29 THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH RH
VALUES BEING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS; DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. LASTLY, WITH INCREASING
MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS BEING COLLOCATED WITH THE LEFT-EXIT
REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET; A FEW SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP MOSTLY WEST OF I-29 TONIGHT. NONETHELESS, WITH A
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DECREASE INTO LOW 50S FOR THE NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK, QUIETER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR FUNNELS INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE RECENTLY DEPARTED COLD FRONT. A SURFACE HIGH WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN TO REPLACE THE FEATURE AS WARM AIR ADVECTION
STRENGTHENS ALOFT. HOWEVER, WITH NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW IN
PLACE; NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF WARMING FOR THE DAY AS
HIGHS ONLY PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. BY THURSDAY, THE
WARMER PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS OVERHEAD
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY LEADING TO A SLIGHT RECOVERY
TEMPERATURES-WISE. AS A RESULT, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 60S TO
LOW 70S FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER, WITH THE RETURN OF BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS EXPECT ANOTHER DAY
OF ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. NONETHELESS, WITH WINDS
WEAKEN TOWARDS THE EVENING; THESE CONCERNS SHOULD ONLY PERSIST
FOR A FEW HOURS.
OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN WESTWARDS AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS DO SEEM LIKELY, THE BETTER CHANCES (30%-50%) WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. WITH THAT BEING SAID, LINGERING
SATURATION ISSUES WILL LIKELY PERSIST KEEPING THE MORE BENEFICIAL
AMOUNTS EAST OF OUR AREA. EITHER WAY, EXPECT THIS DEVELOPING
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE EASTWARDS OVERNIGHT BEFORE EXITING OUR
AREA. LASTLY, WITH CLEARER SKIES EXPECTED BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) ALOFT; EXPECT THE
COLDER AIR TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE STARTING THURSDAY
NIGHT PLUMMETING OUR TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR
THE NIGHT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES AS A
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD.
FRIDAY ONWARDS: LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND ONWARDS, QUIETER CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN TO THE REGION AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND FREEZING EACH
NIGHT, OUR NORMAL DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WILL STRUGGLE TO KEEP UP
LEADING TO DAILY HIGHS CLOSER TO OUR SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. HOWEVER, WITH WAA GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING INTO
SUNDAY AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RETURNING; EXPECT OUR TEMPERATURES
TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY AS OUR DAILY HIGHS PEAK
IN THE 60S AND 70S ON BOTH DAYS. LASTLY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORE ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE OCT 22 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS TAF PERIOD MOSTLY DUE TO PATCHY FOG. TAKING A
LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR BEHIND
THE ULL WITH A FEW PATCHY AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN NE AND THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. WITH THIS IN
MIND, OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS AND RAPID CHANGES IN VISIBILITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z BEFORE DISSIPATING.
OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON SHIFTING INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. LASTLY, A FEW
ISOLATED SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT MOSTLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GUMBS
AVIATION...GUMBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page