695  
FXUS63 KFSD 250320  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
1020 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO  
NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON.  
 
2. TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION WELL INTO  
NEXT WEEK.  
 
3. NEXT RISK FOR ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WOULD FAVOR NEXT  
THURSDAY.  
 
-----------------------------------------------------------------  
 
THIS AFTERNOON: INITIAL SURGE OF MID-LVL MOISTURE AND RESULTANT  
CLOUDS FROM BROAD WARM ADVECTION CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST THIS  
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WITH A FAIRLY LIGHT WIND ARE STRUGGLING  
TO RISE, WITH HIGHS REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.  
 
TONIGHT: A MID-LVL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST  
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BROAD BUT WEAK WARM AIR  
ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASE PVA MAY LEAD TO A FEW SCATTERED  
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING. SOUNDING SUGGEST THE  
EFFECTIVE MOISTURE LAYER REMAINS RATHER THIN, WITH SOME MODEST DRY  
AIR IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THAT SAID, HRRR/RAP AND OTHER SHORT  
TERM GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED  
PRECIPITATION. FEEL THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER MAY LIMIT OVERALL QPF,  
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW TO SPITS OF  
FREEZING RAIN. ANY IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL. FURTHER WEST, STRATUS  
AND FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP THROUGH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, WITH THIS  
STRATUS THEN PUSHING TOWARDS THE I-29 AREAS BY DAYBREAK. HAVE  
INTRODUCED FOG TO THE COUNTIES ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER IN CENTRAL  
SD.  
 
SATURDAY: ANOTHER CHILLY LATE MARCH DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION  
ON SATURDAY AS WE FIND OURSELVES ON THE BACKSIDE OF MID-LVL  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY  
WITH A GOOD DEAL OF LOW-CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEARLY 5  
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 201 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023  
 
SUNDAY: THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE (ABSENT THE NAM) KEEPS  
ANOTHER VORTICITY MAXIMA SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT THE NAM AS A SOLUTION, GIVEN A FEW  
GEFS/EC ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO PULLING THIS SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH, BUT  
IT IS AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME. A BREEZY NORTH WIND WILL PUSH LOW  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS TO 20S, AND NORTHERLY LOW-LVL FLOW  
ALSO IS LIKELY TO PULL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE  
MORNING. DESPITE THE INCREASING SUN IN THE AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES  
WILL AVERAGE 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
 
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: NUISANCE LITTLE WAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE  
NORTHERN US TO START NEXT WEEK. WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE  
REGION, THIS IS ALSO LIKELY TO LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO MID-WEEK. A LOW END RISK FOR LIGHT SNOW MAY  
ARRIVE MONDAY, BUT AGAIN WITH NO STRONG MOISTURE CONNECTION FOR THIS  
SYSTEM, ANY QPF WILL BE ON THE LOW END. AS MID-LVL HEIGHTS RISE FOR  
TUESDAY, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE THE SLIGHT RETURN OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LVL  
FLOW AND A RETREATING WARM FRONT. ANY SURGE IN WARM AIR WILL BE  
MINIMAL HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY.  
INCREASING LIFT ALONG THE 850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATION OVER  
THE TRI-STATE AREA WEDNESDAY MAY BRING A BRIEF RISK FOR MINOR SNOW  
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE REGION. THE UNDERCUTTING OF DRY AIR AND LOW-  
LVL JET SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA WILL KEEP THIS PRECIPITATION  
CHANCE LIMITED TO JUST THE DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDNESDAY.  
 
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: THERE REMAINS STRONG AGREEMENT IN DETERMINISTIC AND  
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS FOR AN INCREASING PRECIPITATION RISK THURSDAY  
INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER UPPER LOW BEGINS TO CROSS THE ROCKIES LATE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND WILL INCREASE WARM ADVECTION OVER THE  
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES  
FOR 0.10" OF PRECIPITATION ARE OVER 70%, WHICH SUPPORT THE HIGHER  
POPS IN THE POPULATED NBM GUIDANCE. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE  
WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BECOMES REESTABLISHED, AND THEN WHERE  
THE RESULTANT HIGHER QPF VALUES COULD BE FOUND. WE CONTINUE TO  
FAVOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END THE MONTH.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CDT FRI MAR 24 2023  
 
PATCHY MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 THROUGH THE  
OVENRIGHT HOURS. MVFR AND IFR STRATUS AND FOG SHOULD BECOME MORE  
WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER WITH MVFR NEAR AND EAST OF THE  
JAMES RIVER POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FOR THE  
MOST PARTS NORTHWEST IA AND SOUTHWEST MN SHOUDL REMAIN VFR BUT  
SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST MN.  
 

 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DUX  
LONG TERM...DUX  
AVIATION...08  
 
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