912
FXUS63 KFSD 180029
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
729 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2022
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2022
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER SOUTHEAST TODAY,
ALLOWING FOR A STEADIER, THOUGH STILL RATHER LIGHT, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. HAVE
SEEN A BROAD AREA OF CUMULUS DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, DRIVEN
BY DIURNAL HEATING, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO DIMINISH TOWARD
SUNSET. WILL BE A QUIET NIGHT, WITH PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND OVERNIGHT WINDS
SHOULD HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE MORE, AND ALSO PRECLUDE FOG
DEVELOPMENT AS WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS IN UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
ATTENTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THEN TURNS TO SHORTWAVE WHICH
HAS BEEN MOVING FROM EASTERN MT INTO WESTERN ND TODAY. SLOW MOVING
UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND, COMBINED WITH A BROADER TROUGH CENTERED
OVER HUDSON BAY, APPEARS TO HALT EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF TRAILING
WAVES. THIS ALLOWS THE ND WAVE TO DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA BY LATE THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE, SHOULD SEE A MILD THURSDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES SIMILAR
TO TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S-MID 80S. COULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR A FEW STORMS IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN
THE MORNING, MAINLY IMPACTING NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
ACCOMPANYING RETURN OF MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, THOUGH SHEAR IS ON THE WEAK SIDE,
SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SEVERE THREAT MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER, THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS ON THE DRY SIDE, LENDING TO AN
INCREASE IN DCAPE VALUES WHICH MAY PROMOTE GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2022
WAVE BECOMES MUCH MORE WRAPPED UP AS IT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE TRI-STATE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE RESULTING CLOSED
UPPER LOW DRIFTING ONLY SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
THROUGH SATURDAY.
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW WILL RESULT IN A COOL AND SOMEWHAT DAMP
END TO THE WEEK. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN, AND PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS, SWING THROUGH
THE AREA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ON FRIDAY, COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS LINGER INTO SATURDAY, AT LEAST FOR AREAS
EAST OF I-29, AS MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY WRAPS AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING UPPER LOW.
OVERALL, NOT EXPECTING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THIS WAVE, BUT
PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE 2 DAY RAIN TOTALS UPWARDS OF A HALF
INCH BY LATE SATURDAY. BOTH GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA, GENERALLY NORTHEAST OF A KHON-KFSD-KSPW LINE. AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE DURING
THIS TIME FRAME, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S. HOWEVER, WITH THE
ANTICIPATED RAINFALL/CLOUDS, THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT READINGS WILL
STRUGGLE TO TOP 70 NEAR/NORTH OF I-90 ON FRIDAY.
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY, THE UPPER LOW SHOULD HAVE PULLED FAR ENOUGH EAST
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TO LESSEN ITS INFLUENCE IN OUR CWA. THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS,
WHICH SHOULD BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT WED AUG 17 2022
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.
DISSIPATING DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL GIVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE ANVIL CIRRUS SPREADS IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED, HIGH BASED SHOWERS WILL SPREAD IN THURSDAY MORNING.
COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS IMPACTING TAF SITES IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME BUT COULD IMPACT HURON BY 12Z AND
SIOUX FALLS BY LATE MORNING. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND HIGHER
AMOUNTS IS NORTHEAST OF A MADISON TO SIOUX FALLS TO SPENCER LINE.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...BP
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