274
FXUS63 KFSD 030337
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1037 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL TAPER OFF
THROUGH EARLY NIGHT TIME HOURS. LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
- THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SOME SHOWERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON WHETHER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE RAIN OR SNOW.
- DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A NICE WARMING TREND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
TODAY: CURRENT RADAR SHOWS OUR WINTER SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINNING TO
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES SO, SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS CAA SWEEPS IN
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, EXPECT THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE TO BE
FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14
IN SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY AND BREEZY, GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH, WITH A FEW
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20. THIS
COULD RESULT IN SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WHILE SNOW
IS ACTIVELY FALLING. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90, REMOVED FROM THE HEAVIEST SNOW. SOME
BLOWING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE, BUT WITH THE WET HEAVY NATURE OF
THE SNOW, AND THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES MELTING SNOW SHORTLY
AFTER IT FALLS, THE RISK IS LOW. LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL FALL TO
THE 20S AND 30S.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR A SHORT TIME AS A WEEK
MIDLEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
NORTHERLY BUT WILL BE LIGHT, GRADUALLY BECOMING EASTERLY OVERNIGHT.
HIGHS FOR THURSDAY WILL WARM TO THE 40S AND 50S, SEASONABLE BUT
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S AND 30S. THURSDAY EVENING A MIDLEVEL WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE WAVE COMES A PUSH OF WAA AND
POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION. ALOFT IN THE MIDLEVELS, WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET.
THERE IS ALSO DISAGREEMENT ON THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION AT
ONSET. THE NAM, EC, AND CAN ALL INDICATE WARMER TEMPERATURES AT
ONSET, MEANING PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS RAIN, AND THEN SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW. THE GFS, HOWEVER, HAS A RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW
MIX AT ONSET THAT QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO ALL SNOW. ALL THIS TO
SAY THAT UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS
HIGH. AS FAR AS HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY THEY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY THANKS TO THAT WAA PUSH,
IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 20S.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND: AN UPPER WAVE PASSES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
TURNING SURFACE WINDS NORTHERLY AND BREEZY. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
FOR SATURDAY THANKS TO WEAK CAA AHEAD OF THE WAVE, IN THE 40S.
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS OVERHEAD. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. BY MONDAY A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. A WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S,
TUESDAY IN THE 50S AND 60S, AND 60S TO 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM CDT WED APR 2 2025
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL TAPER OFF AROUND
06Z. MVFR/IFR STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, TRENDING TOWARD
LIGHT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...JM
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