443
FXUS63 KFSD 271135
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
635 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH IS HIGH. THIS IS A
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH VERY DRY FUELS, BREEZY
CONDITIONS, UNSEASONABLE WARMTH, AND LIMITED TO NO
PRECIPITATION. HEED ALL BURN BANS AND RESTRICTIONS.
- WHILE WE WILL BE DRY TO FINISH OUT THE MONTH, A PATTERN SHIFT
BY EARLY APRIL COULD LEAD TO RENEWED CHANCES FOR RAIN AND/OR
SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER, ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-35 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY-81 (MORE IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION). BESIDES
THAT, THE QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO TREND DRIER FOR
SATURDAY, DECIDED TO BLEND SOME OF THE HRRR INTO THE NBM DEW POINTS
TO FURTHER DECREASE RH VALUES FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ALSO SLIGHTLY INCREASED WIND SPEEDS BY BLENDING IN SOME OF THE NBM
90TH FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE, LEFT OUR FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IN PLACE FOR NOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING. DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND CAA HAVE
BUMPED HIGHS DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THE NBM. THOUGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES, THE STRONG
WINDS COULD STILL LEAD TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH. HIGHS FOR TODAY WERE
MET THIS MORNING IN SOME AREAS. AS OF 2:30 PM CDT TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM THE 30S TO LOW 50S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLD IN THE 20S.
OVERNIGHT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS AS THEY BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE. AROUND DAYBREAK, A WEAK WAVE PASSES FROM NORTH DAKOTA
INTO MINNESOTA JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF CAA. THIS WILL WORK TO ENHANCE WINDS GUSTS
AT THE SURFACE, THOUGH THEY WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TODAY. GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE,
GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MORE SUN FOR
FRIDAY, BUT THE COLD AIR KEEPS OUR HIGHS ON THE COOL SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY IN THE 40S.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TURN WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN TO
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY WINDS WILL BE
STRONG, SUSTAINED AT 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-40+ MPH. THOUGH WINDS
WILL BE STRONG, AT THIS TIME THEY DO NOT QUITE REACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA. TRENDS IN THE WIND WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
FORECAST CYCLES TO DETERMINE IF A HEADLINE WILL BE NECESSARY IN
THE FUTURE. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
DECREASING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION,
SUBSIDING AIR ALOFT AND WAA WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 20%
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL
REACH THE EXTREME CATEGORY FOR THE WHOLE CWA. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SATURDAY. THE DETAILS OF THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ARE DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION
BELOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM, DRY, AND
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S AND 70S
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WE BEGIN TO SEE A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION MID-WEEK.
RAIN AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY. DETAILS ARE SPARSE AT THIS TIME, SO CHECK BACK
FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS TAF PERIOD. TAKING A LOOK
AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, A NARROW SWATH OF MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. WHILE THESE LOWER
CLOUDS SHOULDN'T HANG OUT FOR LONG, WE COULD SEE AN OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE THINGS CLEAR BACK OUT.
OTHERWISE, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-35 MPH POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON TO END
THE TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 314 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
STARTING WITH TODAY, NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE WITH MIXING THIS MORNING EVENTUALLY LEADING TO GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-35 MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SLIGHTLY OFFSET FROM
THE STRONGEST WINDS, DRY AIR WILL FILTER INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHEASTWARDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) VALUES
IN THE 15-30 PERCENT RANGE WITH THE LOWEST VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL SD. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME COLLOCATIONS OF THESE
VALUES ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY-81 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS,
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN SURFACE
WINDS FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE HIGH BY
LATE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND, DECIDED TO FORGO ANY FIRE-
RELATED HEADLINES AS THE ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE RISK
WOULD BE CONFINED TO A FEW SHORT HOURS.
BY SATURDAY, MORE WIDESPREAD CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AS A STRONGER
PUSH OF WARMER AND DRIER AIR LEADS TO RH VALUES IN THE 12-20 PERCENT
RANGE AREA-WIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEPER MIXING AND STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 35-50 MPH RANGE WILL LEAD TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR ALL AREAS. WITH THIS IN MIND, OUR FIRE WEATHER
WATCH LOOKS TO BE IN GREAT SHAPE. WHILE A TRANSITION TO A RED FLAG
WARNING IS ALMOST CERTAIN AT THIS POINT, WE'LL LIKELY HOLD THE WATCH
FOR NOW AS WE DEAL WITH TODAY'S CONCERNS AND RESOLVE A FEW MORE
DETAILS. NONETHELESS, IT WOULD BE BEST TO AVOID BURNING ON SATURDAY
AS THE CONDITIONS COULD HELP A FIRE QUICKLY SPREAD OUT OF CONTROL.
OTHERWISE, HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY AS RH
VALUES DECREASE INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE. HOWEVER, UNLIKE THE
PAST FEW DAYS; SURFACE WINDS WILL BE QUITE A BIT LIGHTER (10-20 MPH)
WHICH SHOULD TAPER CONCERNS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-050-052>071.
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...05
FIRE WEATHER...05
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