586
FXUS63 KFSD 062326
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
626 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE NIGHT OF NEAR FREEZING TO FROSTY CONDITIONS IN THE
REGION, THOUGH CLOUD COVER LIKELY HAS AN IMPACT ON POTENTIAL.
CONTINUE TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS THURSDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY WE'LL END UP WITH TEMPERATURES 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH THE 7 DAY
FORECAST DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL WEAK WAVES. SEVERE
WEATHER RISKS ALSO REMAIN MINIMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: CONSIDERABLE DIURNAL BASED CU IN THE REGION AS COLD
AIR ALOFT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE MOISTURE DEPTH REMAIN
SHALLOW, NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A SPRINKLE OR TWO.
TONIGHT: CLOUDS CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH A GRADUAL TAPERING OF WINDS
AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
10PM. HOWEVER, A CORRIDOR OF MID-LVL WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS AFTER
06Z AND COMBINED WITH POSITIONING OF UPPER JET SHOULD LEAD TO MID-
UPR CLOUD DEVELOPMENT INTO DAYBREAK. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL THEN
SLOW THE DIURNAL TREND OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE 30S. FROST MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS MAY LIMIT OVERALL
POTENTIAL. SOME AREAS COULD STILL SEE A BRIEF TIME NEAR OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING, MOSTLY NORTH OF I-90, SO WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY
TO AT LEAST RAISE AWARENESS OF DANGER TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE A GRADUAL WARM UP ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THOUGH THE PRESENCE OF A NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE AND LOW-LVL WIND MAKES ME QUESTION JUST HOW FAR WE'LL
RISE. RECENT NBM RUNS HAVE BEEN A BIT TOO WARM EACH DAY, WHICH
MAKES ME TREND TOWARDS MORE CONSSHORT/CAM GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. A WEAK WAVE PASSING THROUGH
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA INTO FRIDAY MAY BRING A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE MO RIVER VALLEY, BUT
MOST STAY DRY. 925:850 TEMPERATURES RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES
FRIDAY, WITH MORE OF A WESTERLY WIND SUPPORTING A BUMP IN
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE LOWER 70S.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: WE REMAIN STUCK IN A QUASI-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WARM START TO SATURDAY MAY
BE TEMPERED BY THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SHIFTING WINDS TO THE
NORTH INTO THE EVENING. A PASSING SPRINKLE/SHOWER/VIRGA MAY BE
POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE ON
SUNDAY DROPPING TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL BEGIN TO BREAK FREE OF THE
NORTHWESTERLY MID-LVL FLOW NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXPANSION OF A MID-LVL
RIDGE EASTWARD. RISING HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW MUCH WARMER LOW-LVL
TEMPERATURE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS, SUGGESTING THAT WE'LL
HAVE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL. IN
FACT, WE DO BEGIN TO SEE SOME 30-40% PROBABILITIES OF 80+
DEGREE TEMPERATURES INTO THE MO RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY.
RAINFALL RISKS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE EXPANDING RIDGE WILL
REMAIN LOW. PARTLY DUE TO A LACK OF STRONG FORCING, BUT ALSO DUE
TO THE LACK OF MEANINGFUL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD. THE
PROBABILITY OF MORE THAN 0.50" OF QPF IN BOTH THE GFS/EC/CMC
ENSEMBLES THROUGH THE UPCOMING 7 DAY TIME PERIOD ARE ALL LESS
THAN 20%.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL THIN BUT HANG AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OR SO OF THE
PERIOD BEFORE BECOMING CLEAR. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET, THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AT 5-10 KTS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR SDZ038>040-
052>060.
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MNZ071-097.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...AJP
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