524
FXUS63 KFSD 031114
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
514 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF FLURRIES AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT COULD LEAD TO A TENTH OR TWO
OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SD.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
- WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEM AHEAD OVER THE NEXT WEEK, EXPECT MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. HOWEVER, A PATTERN SWITCH COULD
CHANGE THINGS HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
TODAY & TONIGHT: ANOTHER DREARY DAY AHEAD! SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
MOST AREAS CONTINUE TO BE BLANKETED BY LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS (STRATUS)
THIS MORNING WITH A FEW POCKETS OF FLURRIES. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL SATURATION AND LINGERING
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES COULD PROMOTE INTERMITTENT
POCKETS OF FLURRIES AND/OR VERY LIGHT SNOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE, LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGHS PEAK IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
BY TONIGHT, PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES
WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.
LOOKING ALOFT, ANOTHER APPROACHING WAVE WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER PUSH
OF LIGHT SNOW JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL TENTH
OR TWO OF ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL SD.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: LOOKING INTO THE MIDWEEK, ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING ON
WEDNESDAY. FROM HERE, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS PROMOTING MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY HELPING US INCREASE OUR HIGHS FROM THE
20S TO MID 30S BY WEDNESDAY TO THE 40S TO MID 50S BY THURSDAY WHICH
WOULD BE A WELCOMED CHANGE. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A
COLD FRONT SWINGS SOUTHWARDS INTO FRIDAY GRADUALLY DECREASING OUR
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE WEEKEND ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, QUIETER
CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SETUP GRADUALLY
BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS RETURNING US TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. CAN'T RULE OUT A WEAK WAVE OR TWO PROGRESSING THROUGH
THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, LIMIT SATURATION WILL KEEP ANY
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. WHILE ITS
PRETTY FAR OUT, ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT SOME LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE
IS PICKING UP ON A STRONGER SYSTEM EJECTING OUT OF THE COLORADO
ROCKIES BY SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE DETAILS ARE FAR FROM
CERTAIN, ITS WORTH MONITORING THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME FOR
THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF ACCUMULATING SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND LOWER WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD. LOOKING
AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, MVFR TO IFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO SIT OVER
THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH POCKETS OF FLURRIES. EXPECT THESE
CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TOWARDS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR
CIGS BY THIS EVENING BEFORE CEILINGS DECREASE AGAIN BY TONIGHT.
FROM HERE, MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END THE
TAF PERIOD. LASTLY, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INTERMITTENT
FLURRIES.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05
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