284  
FXUS63 KFSD 070736  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
236 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS  
ALONG HIGHWAY 14, SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA, AND NORTHWESTERN  
IOWA. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA UNTIL 9AM  
TODAY. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER  
60S TO MID 70S.  
 
- CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. SOME  
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.  
 
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATTER HALF OF  
NEXT WEEK. WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE AT  
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025  
 
TODAY AND TOMORROW: PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS LOW  
TEMPERATURES FALL TO LESS THAN 36 DEGREES F IN SOME AREAS. ROUGHLY  
AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 14 AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND  
NORTHWESTERN IOWA HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING FROST. AS A  
RESULT, A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY. THOUGH THERE WILL BE A  
CHILLY START TO THE DAY, SUNNY SKIES, SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY  
WINDS, AND WAA IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL HELP US WARM INTO THE MID 60S  
TO MID 70S. AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY EVENING, A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE  
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A  
SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS THE  
SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST THE LOW-LEVEL JET  
INCREASES, AND THIS FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPAWN A FEW  
ISOLATED AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE  
IN LOCATION AND TIMING OF MONDAY MORNING STORMS IS LOW DUE TO LOW  
MODEL AGREEMENT. HAVE KEPT NBM POPS AS THEY ARE AS A RESULT.  
 
LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO  
DAYS, IN THE 50S WITH SOME 60S POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH  
DAKOTA. SHOWERS CLEAR OUT BY MID-MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW  
PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY  
AND SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THANKS TO CONTINUED WAA ON SOUTHERLY WINDS.  
HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER  
VALLEY, AND INTO THE MID 80S TO THE WEST. LOWS BY TUESDAY MORNING  
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO 60S.  
 
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS  
IS POSSIBLE AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH THE  
REGION. MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY,  
INCREASING INSTABILITY. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON 1500-2000 J/KG OF CAPE  
WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8 DEG  
C/KM. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING AT ONLY 20-25 KTS. IN ADDITION,  
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE STRONGLY CAPPED, POTENTIALLY LIMITING  
UPDRAFT INITIATION. IF WE MANAGE TO BREAK THE CAP STORMS WILL MOST  
LIKELY INITIATE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO  
EVENING TIME FRAME. STORMS WILL THEN MOST LIKELY BECOME ELEVATED AS  
THE PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.  
DESPITE THE CAPPING AND WEAK SHEAR, A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD  
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THANKS TO THE GENERALLY UNSTABLE  
ENVIRONMENT. RISKS WOULD MOST LIKELY INCLUDE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF A  
QUARTER, AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.  
 
TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK: SHOWERS CLEAR OUT BY LATE TUESDAY  
MORNING AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ALOFT. DRY AND WARM FOR TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. A RIDGE RIDER  
IMPULSE MAY RESULT IN STORMS AGAIN TUESDAY LATE EVENING INTO EARLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. BUT MID-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN VERY LOW AGREEMENT,  
SO CONFIDENCE IS ALSO LOW. DRY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS  
AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES MOVE  
THROUGH THE PATTERN THE REST OF THE WEEK, KEEPING CHANCES FOR RAIN  
IN THE FORECAST. THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES INDICATE THERE IS SOME  
STRONG TO SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THESE, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH  
TO SPECULATE ON DETAILS AT THIS POINT. HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY  
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT SAT SEP 6 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  
SUNSET SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWED A THIN SMOKE LAYER  
ALOFT, SO WILL INCLUDE A HIGH BASED CEILING IN TAF THROUGH MID-  
MORNING SUNDAY.  
 
A FEW DIURNAL CU POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME  
INDICATIONS THAT A SCATTERED MID-LVL DECK MAY BEGIN TO FORM AND  
MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ038>040-  
052>056.  
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-080-089-  
090-097-098.  
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001>003-  
012>014-021.  
NE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...AJP  
AVIATION...DUX  
 
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