801
FXUS63 KFSD 032332
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
632 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS LOW.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
70S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
THE BROAD AREA OF WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WITH
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR BUILDING INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AS WELL WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE WET
GROUND AND NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
FOR NOW NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY PROBLEMS.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE CONTINUATION OF LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. A FAST MOVING FAIRLY WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AREA TO
THE NORTH AND BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. INSTABILITY LOOKS
TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE ANY SHOWERY ACTIVITY, SO WILL RELY ON FORCING
IN AND AROUND THE DENDRITIC LAYER. SATURATION AND FORCING IN THE
DENDRITIC LAYER LOOKS MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL SD AND THAT AREA ALSO
LOOKS TO HAVE LESS DRY AIR BELOW THIS FORCING WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME VERY LIGHT RAINFALL. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THIS WAVE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ABOVE 800 MB
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SHOWERS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE WITH THE BETTER
CHANCES NORTH OF I- 90. THIS POTENTIAL SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL BE
FIGHTING A LOWER LEVEL DRY LAYER, SO AGAIN ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT
ACTIVITY.
A PAIR OF WAVES MOVE ONTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND WILL BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER.
INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY LOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN 200 J/KG CAPE.
SATURATION ALOFT IS A BIT BETTER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND EXPECT MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR MAYBE A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN OR SO. MODEL SOUNDING SUGGEST THAT THIS CHANCE FOR RAIN
WILL BE A BIT BETTER WEST OF I-29.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ANOTHER WEAK WAVE/S, THIS TIME TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA. ONE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY MORNING AND
ANOTHER MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURATION AND FORCING LOOK TO
BE BETTER TO THE NORTH, BUT SOME WEAK INSTABILITY NEAR HIGHWAY 14
AND INTO SOUTHWEST MN, GENERALLY ABOUT 500 J/KG, MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. FOR NOW THESE STORMS
DO NOT LOOK TO BE SEVERE. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW FUNNEL CLOUDS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IF ANY
STORMS CAN DEVELOP AS LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PRETTY LIGHT AND THERE MAY
BE A WEAK BOUNDARY NEAR HIGHWAY 14 INTO SOUTHWEST MN.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A WAVE TO
THE NORTH DIVES SOUTHEAST AND SWINGS A COOL FRONT INTO THE AREA. A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS, SO WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS AND TIMING.
SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE JUN 3 2025
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IA CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND TAPER
OFF THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER, BUT CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW TO MENTION AT KHON WITH THIS PACKAGE. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, WITH MOST OF THE AREA SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY AND POSSIBLY SHALLOW MVFR
FOG TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN COVERAGE AND OCCURRENCE SO
HAVE OMITTED FOR NOW. THIS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY FOR AREAS WHICH
HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE LAST 24-36 HOURS AND RIVER
VALLEYS. OTHER THAN FOG, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CUMULUS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SG
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