823
FXUS63 KFSD 310228
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
928 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 11 PM
TO 4 AM WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH, BUT AN ISOLATED STORM COULD
PRODUCE QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH.
- THE SECOND CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN DEVELOPMENT. IF STORMS
CAN DEVELOP, LARGE HAIL UP TO PING PONG BALLS AND DAMAGING
WINDS TO 65 MPH WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION.
- MODERATE CHANCES (30-60%) FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
BULK OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, SEVERE STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO
LOOK LOW (NEAR 5% OR LESS) THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA CONTINUES TO
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. A FEW SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET TICKS UP
SLIGHTLY AND WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS LOCATED RIGHT
NOW, AROUND 1,500 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK CIN IN THIS AREA, A LACK
OF APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT 11 PM HERE LOCALLY. THAT CHANGES AS
AN UPPER WAVE CONTINUES EJECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND SENDS SOME VORTICITY OUR WAY.
A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS STRETCHING FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN KANSAS IS LIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST
AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AREA IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AROUND 11 PM AND CONTINUE TO LIFT AND
SPREAD EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. LESS INSTABILITY
AND WEAKER SHEAR IN OUR AREA MEANS THE STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE
ON THE WEAKENING TREND AS THEY MOVE THROUGH, BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE AROUND 500-1500 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH, HIGHEST
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER. THIS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MAX WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
AND SMALL HAIL IN THIS AREA, THOUGH AN ISOLATED GUST UP TO 65
MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT ALONG WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFT BEING
ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME QUARTER SIZED HAIL. BY 3-4 AM AS THE
ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER, SEVERE WEATHER WILL NO
LONGER BE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, A DISORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS AND
NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
BY DAYBREAK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT ON BRINGING A WAVE
NORTHWARD TONIGHT WITH A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION. WITH VERY WEAK
SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES LIKELY LIMITED TO 1000 J/KG OR LESS, SEVERE
WEATHER IS VERY UNLIKELY. AN ISOLATED STORM COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO 60 MPH OR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER, POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS THE JAMES RIVER. A
FEW LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP A LITTLE HEAVY RAIN, BUT FOR NOW STORM
MOTION LOOKS QUICK ENOUGH THAT THIS HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY LAST AN
HOUR OR LESS AT ANY ONE LOCATION. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THIS WILL
BE LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, GENERALLY FROM ABOUT 11 PM
TO 4 AM FOR THE STRONGER STORMS.
THIS WAVE SHOULD LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING TO
EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN SOUTHWEST MN.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS A MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE
POTENTIAL AS THE AREA COULD BE MUDDLED BY CLOUD COVER AND EVEN WHEN
THE CLOUD COVER CLEARS, THE LATEST MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DECENT
CAPPING INVERSION. FOR NOW WITH ONLY WEAK MID AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, THIS CAP MAY HOLD. THERE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER WAVE
MOVE THROUGH NEBRASKA DURING THIS TIME WHICH WOULD BRING A BIT
BETTER CHANCE CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO PARTS OF NORTHWEST
IA. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT,
STARTING IN CENTRAL SD LATE AFTERNOON, WHICH MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY AND AID IN BREAKING THE CAP. ALL-IN-ALL
A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE SET UP DURING THIS TIME. IN FACT SPC JUST
DOWNGRADED THE AREA FROM A SLIGHT RISK TO MARGINAL.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND LIMIT
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DOES SPREAD INTO
NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND COULD BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FASTER WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK AND THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24+ HOURS WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS MVFR AND LOWER
STRATUS. SHOWERS AND VERY ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD BY
31.03-04Z, PUSHING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT - A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY TRACK NORTHEAST.
SHOWERS LINGER BEHIND THIS LINE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, INCLUDING ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS, CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS SUNDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE COVERAGE AND
TIMING, SO HAVE LIMITED MENTION TO KFSD AND KSUX IN PROB30
GROUPS FOR NOW.
A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WITH SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIED
ON THE TIMING OF CATEGORICAL CHANGES, AND HAVE MAINTAINED MORE
PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS BASED ON SOUNDINGS.
WINDS REMAIN ON THE BREEZIER SIDE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, WITH
PREVAILING DIRECTION OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SG
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