645
FGUS73 KEAX 251433
ESFEAX
MOC001-003-005-021-033-037-041-047-053-061-075-079-083-087-089-095-
101-115-117-121-147-159-165-171-177-195-197-KSC005-091-103-251530-
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
931 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
..TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING
VALID PERIOD: 06/28/2025 - 09/26/2025
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL
: CHANCES OF EXCEEDING
: FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE (%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:DELAWARE RIVER
MUSCOTAH 27.0 28.0 36.0 : 32 39 19 21 <5 <5
:STRANGER CREEK
EASTON 17.0 18.0 23.0 : 58 71 55 65 7 11
TONGANOXIE 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 52 56 <5 <5 <5 <5
:KANSAS RIVER
DE SOTO 26.0 33.0 36.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LAKE QUIVIRA 26.0 33.0 38.0 : 5 6 <5 5 <5 <5
23RD STREET KCK 33.0 54.0 55.0 : 6 19 <5 <5 <5 <5
:MISSOURI RIVER
ST JOSEPH 17.0 21.0 27.0 : 23 49 11 22 5 14
ATCHISON 22.0 27.0 30.0 : 18 44 6 20 <5 15
LEAVENWORTH 20.0 24.0 30.0 : 14 38 6 20 <5 13
PARKVILLE 25.0 28.0 35.0 : 7 23 6 19 <5 6
KANSAS CITY 32.0 35.0 49.0 : 6 17 5 8 <5 <5
NAPOLEON 17.0 25.0 30.0 : 36 57 7 20 5 6
WAVERLY 20.0 29.0 31.0 : 48 59 7 17 5 9
MIAMI 18.0 28.0 29.0 : 51 67 7 18 6 11
GLASGOW 25.0 27.0 32.0 : 37 62 33 50 7 16
BOONVILLE 21.0 30.0 34.0 : 45 62 7 12 <5 5
:TARKIO RIVER
FAIRFAX 17.0 18.0 25.0 : 33 41 32 35 25 28
:NODAWAY RIVER
BURLINGTON JUNCTI 23.0 28.0 35.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:102 RIVER
MARYVILLE 18.0 23.0 28.0 : 12 17 9 11 <5 <5
ROSENDALE 18.0 18.1 23.0 : 16 27 16 27 6 8
:PLATTE RIVER
AGENCY 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 39 49 18 25 5 5
:LITTLE PLATTE RIVER
SMITHVILLE 27.0 30.5 35.0 : 10 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PLATTE RIVER
SHARPS STATION 26.0 29.0 33.0 : 33 38 19 26 6 6
PLATTE CITY 20.0 25.0 29.0 : 37 46 8 12 5 6
:BLUE RIVER
BLUE RIDGE BOULEV 35.0 39.0 48.0 : 14 14 6 6 <5 <5
BANNISTER ROAD KA 34.0 40.0 42.0 : 8 8 <5 <5 <5 <5
71 HIGHWAY KANSAS 27.0 36.0 38.0 : 15 20 5 5 <5 <5
63RD STREET KANSA 26.0 33.0 37.0 : 12 10 <5 <5 <5 <5
COLORADO AVENUE K 31.0 36.0 37.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
STADIUM DRIVE KAN 33.0 39.0 43.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
17TH STREET KANSA 33.0 36.0 38.0 : 8 8 5 5 <5 <5
12TH STREET KANSA 30.0 35.0 40.0 : 6 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
LAKE CITY 18.0 25.0 27.0 : 25 33 <5 <5 <5 <5
:CROOKED RIVER
RICHMOND 20.0 21.0 29.0 : 59 63 56 62 <5 <5
:WAKENDA CREEK
CARROLLTON 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 42 55 30 49 11 22
:BLACKWATER RIVER
VALLEY CITY 22.0 25.0 31.0 : 46 56 39 53 17 24
BLUE LICK 24.0 29.0 37.0 : 50 61 34 52 5 14
:LAMINE RIVER
OTTERVILLE 15.0 18.0 26.0 : 28 37 22 31 <5 <5
:MONITEAU CREEK
FAYETTE 16.0 21.0 25.0 : 45 59 <5 <5 <5 <5
:PETITE SALINE CREEK
BOONVILLE 16.0 19.5 26.0 : 34 42 27 26 <5 <5
:THOMPSON RIVER
TRENTON 27.0 31.0 34.0 : 32 34 12 13 <5 <5
:GRAND RIVER
PATTONSBURG 25.0 30.0 32.0 : 32 40 18 24 15 19
GALLATIN 26.0 33.0 39.0 : 24 35 15 13 5 5
CHILLICOTHE 24.0 28.0 35.0 : 54 59 40 47 24 29
SUMNER 26.0 28.0 40.0 : 56 61 55 60 8 9
BRUNSWICK 19.0 27.0 33.0 : 46 60 14 19 6 7
:CHARITON RIVER
NOVINGER 20.0 23.0 26.0 : 16 30 12 18 <5 11
PRAIRIE HILL 15.0 19.0 21.0 : 31 46 14 26 9 14
:SOUTH GRAND RIVER
URICH 24.0 26.0 33.0 : 26 41 23 26 <5 <5
:BIG CREEK
BLAIRSTOWN 20.0 23.0 36.0 : 58 68 39 49 <5 <5
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
OSAWATOMIE 28.0 45.0 48.0 : 36 38 <5 <5 <5 <5
LA CYGNE 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 31 46 24 31 <5 <5
TRADING POST 27.0 29.0 40.0 : 30 34 27 31 <5 6
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 06/28/2025 - 09/26/2025
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:DELAWARE RIVER
MUSCOTAH 2.5 4.5 7.9 17.4 27.6 30.2 30.7
:STRANGER CREEK
EASTON 2.7 2.8 7.6 18.5 21.0 22.1 23.5
TONGANOXIE 2.6 2.8 9.8 23.4 25.2 25.9 27.0
:KANSAS RIVER
DE SOTO 9.6 9.6 10.5 14.1 17.2 20.9 22.9
LAKE QUIVIRA 12.4 12.4 12.7 14.4 17.1 22.5 26.5
23RD STREET KCK 16.0 16.1 18.5 20.6 26.7 30.4 38.0
:MISSOURI RIVER
ST JOSEPH 11.6 11.6 11.6 13.7 16.4 21.3 26.0
ATCHISON 15.1 15.1 15.1 17.4 20.4 24.7 28.5
LEAVENWORTH 10.0 10.0 10.0 12.6 17.3 21.7 27.0
PARKVILLE 14.2 14.2 14.6 16.3 20.6 24.1 31.2
KANSAS CITY 14.8 15.2 16.3 19.2 22.4 27.8 34.7
NAPOLEON 11.5 11.9 12.8 15.8 18.4 22.5 29.2
WAVERLY 15.5 15.7 16.8 19.6 24.1 26.5 30.9
MIAMI 13.3 13.3 14.6 18.3 23.7 26.0 29.7
GLASGOW 16.6 16.6 18.7 23.7 27.8 30.9 37.1
BOONVILLE 12.2 12.2 14.1 19.1 24.7 27.7 32.6
:TARKIO RIVER
FAIRFAX 6.3 7.7 8.3 11.7 24.8 27.5 29.6
:NODAWAY RIVER
BURLINGTON JUNCTI 4.7 4.8 6.0 8.2 11.0 17.5 19.6
:102 RIVER
MARYVILLE 7.1 7.2 8.3 9.9 13.7 21.7 25.0
ROSENDALE 3.3 3.5 6.4 11.3 17.0 22.5 23.3
:PLATTE RIVER
AGENCY 9.6 9.6 11.9 18.2 24.4 26.9 29.7
:LITTLE PLATTE RIVER
SMITHVILLE 12.7 12.8 13.4 16.1 21.1 27.0 30.3
:PLATTE RIVER
SHARPS STATION 11.9 11.9 11.9 19.5 26.6 30.1 34.1
PLATTE CITY 11.0 11.0 11.0 16.6 21.5 24.2 29.3
:BLUE RIVER
BLUE RIDGE BOULEV 26.1 26.2 26.6 28.2 31.5 38.3 39.6
BANNISTER ROAD KA 6.8 7.8 8.4 12.7 21.6 30.0 38.8
71 HIGHWAY KANSAS 5.0 6.3 7.1 13.2 21.4 30.1 36.5
63RD STREET KANSA 8.2 9.5 10.5 15.2 20.3 26.5 30.6
COLORADO AVENUE K 8.4 9.4 10.3 14.2 19.0 25.0 33.8
STADIUM DRIVE KAN 7.5 8.3 9.6 15.0 24.3 30.4 34.9
17TH STREET KANSA 10.8 11.7 13.6 19.9 26.2 32.0 36.5
12TH STREET KANSA 5.8 7.6 9.7 14.7 20.8 27.3 31.6
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
LAKE CITY 4.6 4.8 5.4 8.4 18.0 23.7 24.0
:CROOKED RIVER
RICHMOND 5.6 5.6 8.2 22.0 25.3 27.1 27.2
:THOMPSON RIVER
TRENTON 10.9 11.4 14.1 20.1 28.8 32.8 33.7
:GRAND RIVER
PATTONSBURG 3.4 3.4 4.2 17.6 27.4 38.0 44.2
GALLATIN 5.7 5.7 9.4 18.9 25.5 36.6 39.0
CHILLICOTHE 7.7 7.7 12.0 24.8 33.5 40.7 41.5
SUMNER 10.7 10.8 15.8 30.4 35.1 38.4 42.0
BRUNSWICK 7.8 7.8 9.8 18.4 22.3 27.9 35.6
:CHARITON RIVER
NOVINGER 4.4 4.5 4.5 6.8 18.3 24.4 25.7
PRAIRIE HILL 4.3 4.5 4.5 8.2 16.3 20.5 23.8
:SOUTH GRAND RIVER
URICH 3.8 4.2 8.5 17.0 24.6 29.1 30.2
:BIG CREEK
BLAIRSTOWN 10.0 10.3 15.3 21.7 25.1 27.4 27.7
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
OSAWATOMIE 15.5 15.5 16.2 21.6 30.7 38.3 40.0
LA CYGNE 6.5 6.5 8.8 18.9 29.4 33.7 34.2
TRADING POST 6.3 6.3 9.1 18.2 29.9 38.0 38.9
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE
VALID TIME PERIOD.
..TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES
CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES
AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
VALID PERIOD: 06/28/2025 - 09/26/2025
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:DELAWARE RIVER
MUSCOTAH 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:STRANGER CREEK
EASTON 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
TONGANOXIE 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
:KANSAS RIVER
DE SOTO 5.8 4.7 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.6
LAKE QUIVIRA 10.7 10.0 9.6 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2
:MISSOURI RIVER
ST JOSEPH 7.8 7.4 6.8 6.3 5.9 5.5 5.4
ATCHISON 9.9 9.4 8.5 7.9 7.5 7.0 7.0
LEAVENWORTH 5.4 4.9 4.2 3.7 3.4 3.0 3.0
PARKVILLE 10.8 10.1 9.4 9.0 8.7 8.3 8.3
KANSAS CITY 12.1 10.7 9.8 9.4 9.1 8.6 8.6
NAPOLEON 9.1 7.7 6.7 6.3 6.1 5.5 5.5
WAVERLY 13.1 11.8 10.9 10.6 10.4 9.9 9.8
MIAMI 10.1 8.6 7.7 7.4 7.2 6.6 6.6
GLASGOW 13.8 12.5 11.2 10.8 10.5 9.9 9.9
BOONVILLE 9.6 8.4 7.2 6.7 6.5 5.9 5.8
:TARKIO RIVER
FAIRFAX 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2
:NODAWAY RIVER
BURLINGTON JUNCTI 3.9 3.5 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8
:102 RIVER
MARYVILLE 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9
ROSENDALE 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:PLATTE RIVER
AGENCY 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3
:LITTLE PLATTE RIVER
SMITHVILLE 12.2 12.2 12.2 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0
:PLATTE RIVER
SHARPS STATION 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.4
:BLUE RIVER
BLUE RIDGE BOULEV 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7 24.7
BANNISTER ROAD KA 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
71 HIGHWAY KANSAS 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2
63RD STREET KANSA 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.3
COLORADO AVENUE K 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.9
STADIUM DRIVE KAN 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8
17TH STREET KANSA 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1
12TH STREET KANSA 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6
:LITTLE BLUE RIVER
LAKE CITY 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
:CROOKED RIVER
RICHMOND 5.4 4.6 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
:THOMPSON RIVER
TRENTON 10.2 10.0 10.0 9.9 9.8 9.8 9.8
:GRAND RIVER
PATTONSBURG 1.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
GALLATIN 3.6 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.2
CHILLICOTHE 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.5
SUMNER 7.8 7.5 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.6
:CHARITON RIVER
PRAIRIE HILL 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8
:SOUTH GRAND RIVER
URICH 2.4 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
:BIG CREEK
BLAIRSTOWN 9.8 9.7 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.2 9.2
:MARAIS DES CYGNES RIVER
OSAWATOMIE 13.0 12.8 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.4 12.4
LA CYGNE 4.5 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.1
TRADING POST 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0
THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS CONTAIN FORECAST VALUES THAT
ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS
OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE
RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE
OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING A RANGE OF
PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING
DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART
OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE'S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION
SERVICE.
VISIT OUR WEB SITE WEATHER.GOV/EAX FOR MORE WEATHER AND WATER
INFORMATION.
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