611
FXUS63 KDVN 071059
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
459 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT BY THE
AFTERNOON.
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN DEVELOPS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH LATE SATURDAY, BRINGING
TWO ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THERE COULD EVEN BE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.
- SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH A 30-60% CHANCE OF ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
YET ANOTHER GLOOMY MORNING WILL BE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA,
THANKS TO MORE LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THIS IS ALL THANKS TO A ~900 MB LOW-LEVEL THERMAL
INVERSION PER THE 07.00Z DVN SOUNDING. A LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAD
SLOWLY BEEN MOVING OFF TO THE EAST DUE TO INCREASING CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS IN THE 1000-900 MB LAYER, BUT WHERE THERE WAS
CLEARING SKIES, WIDESPREAD FOG WITH SOME VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A
QUARTER MILE OR LESS HAD DEVELOPED, ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IOWA.
LATEST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT THIS FOG COULD LAST FOR A WHILE IN PLACES
DUE TO A LACK OF BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. IT'S POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD
LAST TO AROUND NOON TODAY IN SPOTS. WITH ALL THIS SAID, THE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY WE ISSUED THIS PAST EVENING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 11 AM
THIS MORNING. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE ADVISORY COULD BE
EXPIRED EARLY IF CONDITIONS IMPROVE. ONE OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR
THIS MORNING IS THAT WHERE FOG BECOMES DENSE, THERE COULD BE SOME
FREEZING FOG THAT WILL MAKE ROAD SURFACES SLIPPERY IN SPOTS, SO USE
EXTRA CAUTION ON THE ROADWAYS IF OUT TRAVELING THIS MORNING.
ONCE WE GET TO THE AFTERNOON, WE EXPECT TO ACTUALLY SEE SOME
SUNSHINE (WHICH WE KNOW MANY OF YOU HAVEN'T SEEN IN A WHILE!).
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE, TODAY WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK YET, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO
THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. AGAIN, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL GREATLY
DEPEND ON IF WE CAN SHED OFF THE CLOUD COVER, AND HOW QUICKLY.
TONIGHT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A SYSTEM THAT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY, MARKING THE BEGINNING OF AN ACTIVE
PATTERN IN OUR REGION (MORE ON THAT IN THE LONG TERM SECTION). WITH
THE INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW, ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD BE MORE LOCALIZED. TONIGHT'S LOWS SHOULD BE QUITE
MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, DIPPING ONLY TO THE MIDDLE 30S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH. DOESN'T SOUND LIKE MUCH, BUT THESE LOWS ARE
NEARLY 25 DEGREES ABOVE OUR NORMAL LOWS FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR!
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH LATE SATURDAY, BRINGING TWO SYSTEMS ACROSS THE AREA AS A
LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS
TONIGHT. LET'S BREAK DOWN BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS BELOW:
SYSTEM 1: THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE OK PANHANDLE REGION AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD,
ATTENDANT WITH A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE. BOTH THE
GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE LOW TRACKS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE LOW TO
TRACK RIGHT OVER OUR CWA, WITH A VERY SLIGHT NORTHWESTERLY SHIFT
WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. ULTIMATELY, IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE PRETTY LIMITED, WITH PRECIPITATION TYPES EXPECTED TO BE ALL
RAIN PER THE LATEST HREF ENSEMBLE. IN FACT, THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
BENEFICIAL FOR MOST GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. SOME DECENT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE, GIVEN PWAT VALUES OVER ONE INCH FROM
THE HREF ENSEMBLE MEAN. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR LIKELY TO
RANGE BETWEEN A HALF INCH TO AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE, HIGHEST OVER
NORTHEASTERN IOWA. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER,
GIVEN SOME PRETTY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50-60 KNOTS,
ALONG WITH A FEW MODELS SUGGESTING MUCAPE VALUES AROUND A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG. OTHER CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS, SUCH AS MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, LOOK VERY POOR, SO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WITH UNFROZEN GROUND, SOILS SHOULD SOAK UP THE RAINFALL EASILY. ONE
THING TO WATCH FOR IS WITH THE RAINFALL COMBINED WITH THE UPCOMING
WARM-UP, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREAK UP ICE JAM FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY ON THE ROCK RIVER NEAR MOLINE, WHICH WAS OVER MINOR FLOOD
STAGE LAST WEEK DUE TO AN ICE JAM.
SYSTEM 2: FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE COLDER THAN THE FIRST ONE
THANKS TO ENHANCED COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL
HELP PRECIPITATION TURN FROM A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY TO ALL SNOW
BY SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE REALLY UP IN THE AIR, WITH A
SIGNAL FOR A BI-MODAL DISTRIBUTION IN THE GEFS ENSEMBLE PLUMES,
MEANING THERE ARE TWO LIKELY SOLUTIONS FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS. FOR
DUBUQUE, THE BULK OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED AROUND ONE
INCH, WHILE ADDITIONAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED AROUND 3
INCHES. EITHER WAY, SIGNALS FROM BOTH THE NBM AND PROBABILISTIC WSSI
SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM TO HAVE A LOWER IMPACT LEVEL LOCALLY, WITH THE
NBM PROBABILITIES OF ONE INCH OF SNOW OR MORE AROUND 30 TO 60%
(GREATEST ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR). WSSI ALSO SUGGESTS 10-30%
CHANCE OF MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON,
PARTICULARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH
A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM ONLY TO THE UPPER 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TEENS TO NEAR 20
SATURDAY NIGHT, SO A CHILLY PERIOD IS ON TAP. BY MONDAY, SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, WHICH WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 459 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
MESSY AVIATION CONDITIONS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW
STRATUS AND WIDESPREAD FOG LINGERS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS ALL
THANKS TO A STOUT LOW-LEVEL INVERSION AT AROUND 1500 FT AGL.
LIFR/VLIFR FOG CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS, WITH MORE LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITIES OVER
NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS. THE FOG HAS SLOWLY BEEN EXPANDING
NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME, SO IT'S POSSIBLE IT COULD SEEP INTO OUR
NORTHWEST IL COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING. WITH LITTLE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING INTO MID-MORNING, THE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL BE
SLOW TO DISSIPATE. ONCE IT DOES, CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY
IMPROVE TO VFR LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS STEADY
SOUTHERLY FLOW MIXES THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD FILTER IN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
PERHAPS SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AFTER 06Z.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS A LITTLE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS,
BUT IT'S SOMETHING WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR IAZ040>042-
051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ILZ015-016-
024>026-034-035.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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