643
FXUS63 KDVN 112311
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
611 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH COLUMBUS DAY, WITH
NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES MONDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
BREEZY SSW WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK FOR
AGRICULTURAL FIELD FIRES SOUTH OF I-80.
- A COOL DOWN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST WILL BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
ANOTHER FANTASTIC EARLY OCTOBER DAY IS ONGOING OUTSIDE, WITH 1 PM
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THE REMNANTS
OF ISAIAS WAS WELL TO OUR EAST CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY, WITH WALL-TO-
WALL SUNSHINE LOCALLY.
AFTERNOON TEMPS TO CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES TOPPING OUT SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OUR 18Z DVN SOUNDING HAS A RATHER
STRONG INVERSION AROUND 970 MB LIKELY KEEPING US JUST SHORT OF
RECORDS TODAY. TONIGHT, STRONG WAA JUST TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD WARM LOWS FOR OCT 12TH AND
THOSE NUMBERS ARE REFERENCED IN CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
COLUMBUS DAY, A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM NE INTO NORTHEAST IA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE LOCAL CWA FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR. AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT, WAA ALOFT, AND MIXING UP TO
875MB TO ALLOW FOR SOME BREEZY SSW WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST OVER 25 MPH. A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY IS
ALSO EXPECTED WITH TDS RISING INTO THE LOWER 60S. SOME 12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS ARE EVEN HINTING AT SOME MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE
APPROACHING FRONT BRINGING SOME MID TO UPPER 60S TDS TO THE CWA.
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DEEPER MIXING AND OUR RECENT DRY
STRETCH, I AM NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN THESE VALUES SO I DECIDED TO
CAP VALUES AT 65 FOR NOW CLOSER IN LINE WITH THE 12Z REFS. KEPT
SIMILAR HIGHS TO WHAT THE NIGHT SHIFT HAD WHICH IS NEAR THE TOP END
OF GUIDANCE AND FEEL THIS WAS STILL THE WAY TO GO. WITH NEAR RECORD
TEMPS FORECAST AND THE BREEZY SSW WINDS, THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED
RISK FOR FIRE SPREAD IN FIELDS DESPITE THE HIGHER TDS. THE NEW
GFDIAG VALUES SOUTH OF I-80 STILL SHOW SOME PIXELS IN THE VERY HIGH
CATEGORY AND BELIEVE THIS MAY BE A TAD UNDERDONE FOR TOMORROW. IF WE
DO OVERACHIEVE THE HIGHS JUST BY A FEW DEGREES AND MLI HITS 90, IT
WILL BE THE 2ND LATEST 90+ DEGREE DAY IN ITS PERIOD OF RECORD! THE
LATEST IS OCT 13TH 1975.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THERE IS AN INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING
TUESDAY EVENING. TUESDAY GUIDANCE HAS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
MIDWEST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US. THE
250 MB JET STREAK WILL BE ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AS POINTED OUT IN THE SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK,
THERE IS A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALL TOGETHER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND SUPPORT IS
THERE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS ALSO CONSISTENT WAA AT 850 MB
WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET.
AT THE SURFACE, THE MONDAY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE
IA/MO BORDER BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. PWATS OF ALMOST 2 INCHES ARE PRESENT IN BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA, NORTHWEST MO, AND WEST
CENTRAL IL. THE REFS JOINT PROBS FOR CAPE/SHEAR ARE 40-70% ACROSS
THAT SAME REGION TUESDAY EVENING. ALL THIS PUTS THE LATEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AT 60-90% AREAWIDE. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS (20-30%) WILL BE SOUTHEAST IA AND
NORTHEAST MO, WHICH THE SPC DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS IN A
MARGINAL RISK.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MEANS
THERE IS ANOTHER BOUT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY
WITH A 60-80% CHANCE. THE AXIS FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL AGAIN
BE SOUTH OF I-80. THEN A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY, BRINGING WITH IT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS IS ALSO
WHERE THE LONG-TERM GUIDANCE STARTS TO DIVERGE. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE A TROUGH MOVING ESE FROM CANADA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT
THE ECMWF HAS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER COLORADO PINCH OFF AND MOVE
WEST. THE GFS, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE SAME UPPER LOW MOVE EAST
AND MERGE WITH THE TROUGH. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW COLD THE 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE. THE ECMWF HAS MINIMUM 850MB TEMPS OF 2C BY 12Z
FRIDAY, WHILE THE GFS HAS -5C BY 15Z FRIDAY. EITHER WAY, THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPS
CLOSER TO SEASONABLE VALUES AND, DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUTION
VERIFIES, WE MAY SEE OUR FIRST FROST POTENTIAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH JUST SOME HIGH
CLOUDS. LLWS POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST AT KCID AND KDBQ TONIGHT
(05Z-12Z), AS SSW WINDS INCREASE TO 35-40+ KT IN 1-2KFT AGL LAYER.
CONFIDENCE ON LLWS AT KBRL AND KMLI IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION, BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON VWP AND OBS AND AMEND TO INCLUDE IF NEEDED.
OTHERWISE, GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND
10 KT TONIGHT AND THEN RETURN TO GUSTINESS WITH REGULARITY ON MONDAY
AT 15-25 KT WHILE BACKING MORE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RECORD HIGHS FOR OCTOBER 11TH...
BURLINGTON, IA......88 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS, IA....88 IN 1962
DUBUQUE, IA.........85 IN 1928 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
MOLINE, IL..........88 IN 1962
RECORD WARM LOWS FOR OCTOBER 12TH...
DUBUQUE, IA.........64 IN 1997
MOLINE, IL..........68 IN 1997
RECORD HIGHS FOR OCTOBER 12TH...
BURLINGTON, IA......86 IN 2024 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
CEDAR RAPIDS, IA....88 IN 1995
DUBUQUE, IA.........86 IN 1886
MOLINE, IL..........87 IN 1947
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...MCCLURE
CLIMATE...GROSS/08
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