431
FXUS63 KDVN 200231
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
831 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH A CHANCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAINLY IN
ILLINOIS.
- SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOOKING MORE RAMPED UP AND HAVE EXPANDED AND UPGRADED THE
ONGOING WINTER HEADLINES.
- STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, GUSTING TO 45 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN
ILLINOIS AS WELL AS FAR EASTERN IOWA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
THUNDERSTORMS...994 MB SFC LOW JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS
CITY AREA, WILL LOOK TO PROPAGATE TOWARDS THE MILWAUKEE WI AREA BY
FRIDAY MORNING DEEPENING TO SUB 990 MB LEVELS ALONG THE WAY. LATEST
CAM AND CURRENT MESOANALYSIS(SUCH AS SFC DPTS) SUGGEST PRIME
PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY SFC BASED, WILL
CONTINUE TO BE JUST OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE DVN CWA.
BUT STRONG STORM LAYER SHEAR AS THE LLVL LOW ARRIVES ALONG WITH SOME
ELEVATED CAPES OF 100-200 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 7 C/KM
STILL SUPPORT SOME ELEVATED STORMS OR EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF HAIL ESPECIALLY ON THE IL SIDE THROUGH 9 PM. SOME ELEVATED
TROWAL MOISTURE FEED MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SWATHS OF RAINFALL OF UP TO
A QUARTER INCH. BUT TAKING INTO ACCOUNT DEF ZONE PRECIP COMBINED
WITH PRECURSOR SHOWERS/STORMS, THERE COULD BE A SWATH OF A HALF INCH
TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH BY FRIDAY MORNING ACRS THE NORTHERN THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE DVN CWA.
SNOW...LOOKING AT MODERATE TO STRONG UPWARD OMEGAS COMBINED WITH
ADEQUATE LAYER RH AND IN-WRAPPING COLD CONVEYOR, THE SNOW POTENTAIL
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GO UP AND BE SOUTH
ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF OF THE DVN CWA FROM MID
EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SEVERAL OF THE LATEST CAM RUNS AS WELL AS DETERMINISTICS ARE STILL
VARYING QUITE A BIT ON THE PLACEMENT OF WHERE THE RELATIVELY NARROW
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL FALL, AS WELL AS AMOUNT POTENTIAL. BUT
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT A TYPE OF ENSEMBLE F-GEN FORCING SWATH TO THE
LEFT OF THE H85-H7 MB LOW PATH, IT LOOKS LIKE A DSM TO CENTRAL WI
AXIS LOOKS ON TARGET FOR NOW. THIS IS WHERE A SWATH OF 6 TO 8 INCHES
OF SNOW MAY LAY OUT, INCLUDING THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE DVN
CWA. SOME SOLUTIONS ARE EVEN EMBEDDING A FEW POCKETS OF 10 INCHES
OR MORE IN THIS SWATH ALONG THE STRETCH.
THERE MAY BE A TRANSITION OF A HALF HOUR OF SLEET FROM RAIN TO SNOW
TO AS THE CHANGE OVER OCCURS FROM WEST-TO-EAST AFTER 9 PM TAKING A
BIT AWAY FROM SNOW TOTALS, AS WELL AS INITIAL MILD SFC TEMPS, BUT
SOME GOOD ACCUMULATIONS WILL STILL OCCUR THANKS TO RATES OF OVER AN
INCH AN HOUR FROM MIDNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHEAST IA. HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER WX ADVISORY TO A WARNING
FOR 4 OF OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES/HWY 20 DBQ AND WEST/ OF CONCERN FOR
THE POTENTIAL OF 4-8+ INCHES AND STRONG GUSTY LATE NIGHT WINDS ACRS
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTIES. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE ADVISORY SOUTH AND
EAST A BIT FOR 1-4 INCHES AND THE STRONG WINDS/REDUCED VISIBILITY
CREEPING INTO THE FRIDAY AM COMMUTE TIME. DRIFTING AND WINDS IN
FALLING SNOW A CONCERN. AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 GENERALLY LESS
THAN AN INCH OR NOTHING AS YOU GET TO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE
ALSO ADJUSTED THE START AND END TIMES BACK A FEW HOURS WITH THE
LATEST TIMING THOUGHTS AND LINGERING WIND/DRIFTING AND FALLING SNOW
FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 9 AM.
WINDS...WHILE WIND WILL RAMP UP 25-30 KTS ACRS MUCH OF THE AREA
UNTIL THE LOW CENTER ARRIVAL PRODUCES A TEMPORARY LULL, THE FIRST
STRONG SURGE WILL OCCUR ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK FROM NORTHEAST MO
INTO NORTHEASTERN IL FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THESE
AREAS COULD BE WIND ADVISORY LEVELS WITH GUSTS TO 45+ MPH AND MAY
SCRAPE THE SOUTHEAST AND EASTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW WITH
EVERYTHING GOING ON WILL HOLD OFF OF ANY WIND HEADLINES FOR THE IL
SIDE FOR NOW, BUT IT MAY BE NEEDED IF EVEN AT SHORT NOTICE. THE REST
OF THE CWA INCLUDING THE WINTER HEADLINE AREAS WILL HAVE GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH WHICH WILL COMPOUND IN THE SNOWFALL AREAS ADDING PUNCH FOR
THE NEED OF THE HEADLINES ESPECIALLY IN MARGINAL SNOWFALL AREAS OF 1-
3 INCHES.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE/COOLER CONDITIONS LOOK STILL
TO BE ON TRACK FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN A WARMING
BUT LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE LOOKS TO ARRIVE AND BRING MILD TEMPS WITH IT
BY MID NEXT WEEK WITH VALUES INTO THE 40S AND MAYBE 50S. SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MID TO LATE WEEK SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCE,
BUT IT DOESN'T LOOK SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 551 PM CST THU FEB 19 2026
ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AS A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THIS EVENING, RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THEN, AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THE
SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, LEADING TO STRENGTHENING
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS, GUSTING IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS FOR A
TIME ACROSS THE AREA. COLDER AIR WILL ALSO FILTER IN ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, LEADING TO A TRANSITION TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX, EVENTUALLY TO ALL SNOW IN ITS WAKE. A PERIOD OF
MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR CID AND DBQ WHERE VISIBILITIES TO
AROUND 1 SM OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.
EVENTUALLY, SNOW WILL COME TO AN END AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR IAZ040>042-051.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR IAZ052>054-
063>065.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR IAZ054-066-068.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR ILZ001.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR ILZ001-002-007-
009-015.
WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
ILZ016>018-024-026-035.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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