987
FXUS63 KDVN 261947
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
247 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS (40-60%
COVERAGE) SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS ARE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- A PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO THE AREA THAT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. THE PROBABILITY OF HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100
DEGREES CONTINUES TO INCREASE (70-90% CHANCE).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION
EXITING INTO ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD TO SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS SLOWLY EXITING THE AREA THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH QUIET WEATHER FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE
LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SATURDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A WARM FRONT DRAPED ALONG A ROUGHLY FAIRFIELD TO MACOMB
LINE. AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AFTER 06 UTC SUNDAY, A 20 KNOTS LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP AND LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES OF 1000
TO 2000 J/KG ARE FORECAST WITH AROUND 30 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THERE IS A A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD TO MACOMB. THE
MAIN RISKS WILL BE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT.
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT EXITS INTO MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN. THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE
THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH. HEAT INDICES ON SUNDAY
MAY HOVER AROUND 100 DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHEAST IOWA, NORTHEAST MISSOURI, AND ADJACENT WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS BUT THIS WILL ALSO DEPEND ON LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
RIDGING AT 500 MB WILL SIT ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S EACH DAY AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 100+ ARE FORECAST EACH DAY. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A
HEAT WATCH FOR THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME BUT ONE WILL
BE NEEDED DUE TO BOTH THE FORECAST HEAT INDICES AND DURATION OF
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF
THE STORM TRACK IS CLOSER TO THE AREA AND IF ANY CONVECTION
CAUSES CLOUDS TO SPREAD OVER THE AREA EACH DAY LIMITING THE
HEATING ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEPING HEAT INDICES BELOW 100.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A STORM SYSTEM IS EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
RAIN SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY EXIT THROUGH 20 UTC AT KBRL. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A PERIOD OF
MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 00 UTC BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS OCCURRING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...COUSINS
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