309  
FXUS63 KDVN 190537  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
1237 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA  
FROM 1 AM TONIGHT TO 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE  
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.  
 
- THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CHILLY NIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND PERIOD  
WITH THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE  
ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS.  
 
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING  
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EASTERN IOWA AND  
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS  
OCCURRING SOUTH OF A FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG LINE. TODAY WAS  
COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S  
ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA LATE  
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL  
CAUSE SKIES TO QUICKLY CLEAR TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AND ALLOW  
WINDS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES ON  
FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH AND WEST OF A  
LINE FROM VINTON TO BELLEVUE IOWA AS WELL AS IN IOWA COUNTY. A  
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM  
ON FRIDAY. THINK THAT WINDS WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH THAT IT WILL  
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF  
EASTERN IOWA, NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI.  
 
SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES  
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TO THE  
UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH. EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP ON  
FRIDAY ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO  
30 MPH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU APR 18 2024  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WE WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS. THE  
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE CHILLY NIGHTS ON SATURDAY,  
AND SUNDAY NIGHTS. MODELS SUGGEST WE WILL HAVE ZONAL FLOW  
ALOFT, ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SETTLE  
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. CONFIDENCE IN FROST FRIDAY  
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IS A BIT LOWER, AS WE WILL BE CONTENDING  
WITH STRONGER WINDS AND CLOUD COVER IN SOME PARTS OF OUR AREA,  
WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING/FROST DEVELOPMENT.  
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS MUCH HIGHER FOR A FREEZE SATURDAY  
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING, WITH MORE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING  
CONDITIONS. IN FACT, THE NBM PROBABILITIES OF LOW TEMPERATURES  
AT OR BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING ARE BETWEEN  
70 TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN IOWA. BE ON THE LOOKOUT  
FOR ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ISSUED THIS WEEKEND!  
 
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA  
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PER THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE LOW  
TRACKS, AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL TRANSLATE NORTH OF OUR  
REGION DURING THAT TIME, AS IT PULLS SOME DECENT MOISTURE  
NORTHWARD. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY SHOWERS WITH  
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED STORMS WITH IT. AFTER THE SYSTEM PASSES  
THROUGH, DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH MID-WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI APR 19 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WINDS ARE THE MAIN  
CONCERN FOR AVIATION. WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK AND  
GUST INTO THE UPPER 20 KT RANGE DURING THE DAY. AFTER THE  
SUN SETS EXPECT WINDS TO SLACKEN AND GUSTS TO DROP OFF.  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ040>042-  
051>054-063.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...COUSINS  
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ  
AVIATION...GIBBS/UTTECH/WILSON  
 
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