052
FXUS63 KDVN 232306
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
606 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THE PLEASANT LATE OCTOBER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
A 500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION, BRINGING PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES (PASSING MID TO HIGH CLOUDS) AND WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S; LOWS TONIGHT AND SAT. NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE 50S. OTHERWISE, EXPECT STEADY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-15
MPH, WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
BY SUNDAY, A STRONG LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL DISLODGE HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES, PUSHING IT EASTWARD. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL SAG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CWA BY MONDAY AND BRINGING A
COOLDOWN TO AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA. HOWEVER, MODEL TIMING STILL
REMAINS QUITE POOR WITH REGARD TO THE FRONT, RESULTING IN A NEAR 10
DEGREE SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF. WITH THIS SLIGHT COOLDOWN,
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S BUT
REMAIN ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS FOR LATE OCTOBER.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, WHILE GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE SPREAD
REGARDING THAT PATTERN ALOFT, AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED. SOME MODELS, SUCH AS THE ECMWF,
FAVOR A WEST CONUS TROUGH AND EASTERN CONUS RIDGE, WHILE THE GFS
FAVORS A MORE SHALLOW, NEAR- ZONAL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED WAVES.
WHILE THE PATTERN ALOFT REMAINS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT, A
CONTINUATION OF OUR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE STREAK APPEARS
LIKELY THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
60S TO 70S.
ADDITIONALLY, WHILE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ON MONDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES TREND HIGHER TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON
PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT AND THE TRANSITION
TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. WHAT WILL
FAVOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, IN ADDITION TO A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN, IS AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WITH PWATS NEAR
0.8-1.0 INCHES, OR AROUND THE 75-90TH PERCENTILES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS AND FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
14Z/24. AFTER 14Z/24 DEEPER MIXING WILL BEGIN TURNINGS WINDS
MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH
AVIATION...08
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