536
FXUS63 KDVN 130433
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1033 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
LEADING TO HIGHER PRECIP DEFICITS AND WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY,
LEADING TO BROAD HIGH PRESSURE LOCALLY. THEREFORE WE CAN EXPECT
A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 50S (NORTH TO SOUTH)
FOR FRIDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A SPLIT IN THE POLAR AND
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAMS WILL ALLOW FOR RIDGING TO BUILD TO OUR NORTH
AS A TROUGH DRIFTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 50S ACROSS
THE CWA AS CLOUDS FILL IN OUR SKIES SATURDAY MORNING. EVEN
THOUGH THE MAIN DYNAMICAL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTH, SOME ISENTROPIC UPGLIDING IN THE MID-LEVELS
NORTH OF A WARM FRONT WILL PERMIT SOME LIGHT RAIN TO FALL AROUND
THE TRI-STATE AREA OF MO, IL, AND IA. ACCUMULATION WILL REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, RANGING FROM A TRACE UP TO 0.2
OF AN INCH; NBM POPS 20-50% SOUTH OF I-80. CONDITIONS IMPROVE
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR NORTHWEST AND
SKIES CLEAR OUT.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE 500MB RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, KEEPING US UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY. SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH SOME HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE
AVERAGE LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR
RECORD HIGHS TO BE TIED LATER ON MONDAY AT DUBUQUE AND MOLINE
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR DETAIL).
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL EJECT EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED, A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER NEBRASKA ALIGNED WITH THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A STRONG JET STREAK. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TRACK OF THIS DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH THE ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS LANDING IN TWO CAMPS: A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS
IOWA OR A NORTHERLY TRACK IN SOUTH DAKOTA. REGARDLESS THE
NORTHEAST MOTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND WAA ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LREF SHOWING A 30-70%
(NORTH- SOUTH) CHANCE OF HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 60S ON
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
POPS ARE CURRENTLY LIMITED TO ONLY 20-50% ACROSS OUR CWA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SUBSIDENCE ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE TROUGH WILL DRY OUT THE LOW LEVELS QUICKLY DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
SIGNAL FOR PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT IN CAMS CONTINUES TO DECREASE, THUS
WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT MENTION WITH IT BEING TOO LOW OF A PROBABILITY.
AS A RESULT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL ABOUND WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
VEERING FROM SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TO WEST/SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR FEBRUARY 16TH
DBQ: 60 (1921)
MLI: 60 (2022)
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...DELAUNE
AVIATION...MCCLURE
CLIMATE...DELAUNE
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