087
FXUS63 KDVN 020505
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1205 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
..UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BESIDES THE SOUTHEAST
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA WHERE THERE MAY BE MORE CLOUDS HANGING
ON. STEPS SHOULD BE TAKEN TO PROTECT ANY SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
VEGETATION.
- THE LATEST MODEL ENSEMBLES STILL SUGGEST A BLOCKED PATTERN
WILL MAINTAIN A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD, WITH EMBEDDED WAVES AND FRONTS
COMBINING WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY/HEATING TO PRODUCE ALMOST
DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIP IN OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
- WARM UP FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BEFORE COOLING BACK DOWN INTO MID
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
TONIGHT...SEVERAL TYPES OF SATELLITE IMAGERY WERE SHOWING THE VORT
COMPLEX ALOFT STRETCHING FROM ONTARIO, ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS
AND BACK TOWARD THE OH RVR VALLEY. A MAX WAS NOTED ACRS THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS, WITH A SECONDARY WAVE ACRS IA ROLLING TOWARD THE DVN CWA
ATTM. THE UPSTREAM VORT SPOKE WILL DROP TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA OF CONCERN AND NOT BE A FACTOR, WHILE THE ONE ALMOST OVERHEAD
WILL CONTINUE TO COMBINE WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO PRODUCE SCTRD
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME FLASHES OF LIGHTNING THROUGH
EARLY EVENING BEFORE FADING AFTER SUNSET. THEN WITH COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND LOW SFC DPTS, A LATER NIGHT CLEAR OUT ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA TO COMBINE WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS UNDER A SHARP INVERSION FOR
FROST FORMATION. WILL LEAVE THE ONGOING HEADLINES AS IS(UNLESS LAST
MINUTE CHANGE TO EXPAND OCCURS), BANKING ON LINGERING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OFF DEPARTING UPPER WAVE ACRS THE SOUTHEAST TO KEEP LOW TEMP
POTENTIAL ACRS THOSE AREAS MORE IN THE MID 30S AND MARGINAL.
OTHERWISE A LOT OF LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT, AND AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT THAT SOME COLD AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH
MAY GET INTO THE UPPER 20S. BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE
WARNING.
SATURDAY...A PASSING SFC HIGH ALONG WITH SOME UPPER RIDGING TO MAKE
FOR A DECENT DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND FAIR WX CUMULUS. FCST SOUNDINGS
MIX OUT PRODUCES WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH A CONTINUED
LIGHT SFC WIND REGIME. SATURDAY NIGHT, A SFC FRONT WILL ORGANIZE
ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS AND DROP TOWARD THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE MIGRATES OFF TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW AND
PROBABLY NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRENDS AS SAT NIGHT PROGRESSES. DEPENDING
ON ADEQUATE MOISTURE RETURN BY THEN, SOME CHANCE FOR WAA TYPE
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM IN PORTIONS OF OR NEAR THE DVN CWA
LATE SAT NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
SUNDAY...A BREEZY WARM SECTOR DAY CHANGING TO A FROPA DAY AS IT
PROGRESSES ALLOWING FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S AND SOME
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM DURING THE DAY BUT A EML MAY BE AT PLAY
CAPPING MORE WIDESPREAD DEVELOPMENT. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE TRENDS
SUGGEST A BETTER THUNDERSTORM SCENARIO DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE DVN CWA ACRS MO INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IL SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
NOCTURNAL LLVL JET FOCUSES ON THE FRONT LAYING OUT FROM WEST-TO-EAST
ACRS THOSE AREAS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LATEST ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A PATTERN
RELOAD OF THE SUNDAY SCENARIO ON MONDAY, BUT A STRONGER COOL
FRONT AND PRE- FRONTAL WARMING TO MAKE MONDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE FCST PERIOD. THIS MAY ALSO BE A WINDOW FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, DEPENDING ON MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE INCOMING FROPA
PROCESS. LATEST MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BLOCKED
PATTERN TO EVOLVE INTO A LONG WAVE TROF FROM ACRS THE
SOUTHWESTERN ROCKIES TO THE GRT LKS AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE
LOWER LEVEL BAROCLINIC CONVECTIVE ACTION ZONE MAY THEN LAY OUT
JUST TO THE LEE OF THIS FEATURE ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UP
THE OH RVR VALLEY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE LOCAL FCST AREA AND
WESTERN GRT LKS REGION WOULD LAY OUT UNDER THE COOL SIDE OF
THIS PATTERN FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MID TO LATE WEEK AND
GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT (10 KT OR LESS) AND BECOME VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AM AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN. WINDS MAY BECOME
MORE PREVAILING FROM W/NW BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AM THEN
SHOULD BACK TO S/SW BY SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-
063>068-076>078-087-088-098.
IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR ILZ001-002-007-009-
015>018-024.
MO...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ009.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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