244  
FXUS63 KDVN 011043  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
543 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA, LEAVING US WITH SEASONAL  
TEMPERATURES AND PASSING CLOUDS HEADING TOWARDS MIDWEEK. LOW-  
END CHANCE FOR STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN OUR NORTHWEST.  
 
- FOURTH OF JULY IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE TOASTY, WITH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND INCREASING HUMIDITY.  
 
- PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND, AS  
SOUTHWEST FLOW KICKS IN, INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE.  
THUS, VERY WARM CONDITIONS RETURN, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR  
SHOWERS/STORMS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE AREA  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED AS A PERIOD OF LARGELY  
QUIET WEATHER, WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, TRENDING UPWARDS ON  
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND NORTHWESTERLY TODAY, USHERING  
DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. THUS, WE WILL BE LESS HUMID OVER THE  
NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW-MID 60S.  
OTHERWISE, WE WILL BE LEFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, ASIDE FROM  
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON.  
 
A WEAK WAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE ON  
WEDNESDAY, WHICH CAN BRING IN LOW-END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS.  
SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL  
RISK, LEVEL 1/5, FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY, LARGELY FOCUSING  
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HINT AT A DECAYING LINE OF  
CONVECTION THAT MAY COME CLOSE TO THE AREA, BUT DRY AIR IN PLACE  
SHOULD HELP TO EAT AWAY AT THESE STORMS, WHICH MAY LEAVE US DRY  
THROUGH THE NIGHT. CURRENTLY, OUR CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE CHANCE  
FOR STORMS. THUS, WE WILL STICK WITH THE NBM POPS AT THIS TIME, WITH  
ONLY 15-30% CHANCES IN OUR NORTHWEST. IF WE MANAGE TO GET STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS IN THAT AREA, MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND AND HAIL.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
THURSDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY, WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. WE  
WILL HAVE A WEAK WAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MIDDAY, WHICH CAN  
BRING THROUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE ON  
THE RISE, WE WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE COLUMN,  
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE. THUS, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, WITH  
ABOUT A 15-20% CHANCE FOR STORMS.  
 
THE 4TH OF JULY WILL BE A TOASTY ONE, WHERE WE HAVE AN UPPER  
RIDGE PASSING OVER THE AREA, ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO KICK  
IN. WITH THIS, WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE INCREASE  
THROUGHOUT THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 90S ONCE  
AGAIN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS, ESPECIALLY IN OUR SOUTH.  
THE EURO ENSEMBLE IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE HEAT,  
INDICATING A LARGE AREA OF 70-100% CHANCE FOR REACHING 90+  
DEGREES, WHILE THE GEFS GENERALLY FAVORS SUCH TEMPERATURES WITH  
ABOUT A 20-40% PROBABILITY. THUS, SOME DIFFERENCES EXIST, BUT  
BOTH FAVOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR HEAT STARTING AS EARLY AS  
FRIDAY. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES  
UPWARDS TO 100 FOR SOME. WITH IT BEING A HOLIDAY AND PLENTY OF  
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED, IT WILL BE BEST TO PREPARE FOR THE  
HEAT IN ADVANCE, AS WELL AS PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY DURING THE DAY  
AS WELL.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND WILL FEATURE AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN  
WITH SEVERAL WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. HAVING HOT  
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING HUMIDITY THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL  
ALSO FAVOR NEAR-DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WHILE WE  
CURRENTLY DON'T SEE A LARGE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT,  
DIURNAL CONVECTION IS FAVORED, WITH SOME EVENING/OVERNIGHT MCSS  
NOT OUT OF QUESTION. TOO SOON TO DISCUSS ANY SEVERE THREAT, BUT  
IT IS BEST TO KEEP IN MIND THAT WE ARE NOW IN JULY AND WITH SUCH  
HEAT AND HUMIDITY, THERE WILL BE A NON-ZERO THREAT FOR STRONG  
TO SEVERE CONVECTION.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH  
NORTHWEST WINDS UPWARDS TO 10 KTS. NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL  
LONG TERM...GUNKEL  
AVIATION...GUNKEL  
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