823
FXUS63 KDVN 262325
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY MILD FALL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH PASSING CLOUDS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MIDWEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
AS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN TAKES SHAPE OVER THE REGION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, SHUNTING THE UPPER RIDGE OFF
TO OUR EAST. AS A RESULT, WE WILL START TO SEE UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN DRAPED OVER THE AREA WILL REMAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT, LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS A WAVE
EJECTS OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. OVERALL, MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE LIMITED THROUGH THIS
TIMEFRAME, RESULTING IN A DRY FORECAST. ALTHOUGH, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A MIX OF CLOUDS/SUN AS A RESULT OF THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH THIS FRONT
DRAPED OVERHEAD, BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS IT LIFTS NORTH
TUESDAY. LLVL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY. THUS, WE CAN GENERALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES AROUND
70.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 203 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN CONUS.
SIMILAR TO THE FRONT OVER THE AREA TODAY, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER WEAK
AND SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THIS FRONT IS THAT WE WILL SEE
BETTER LLVL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, INCREASING
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THUS, WE WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT, LARGELY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG/NORTH OF A LINE FROM SIGOURNEY TO DUBUQUE
IA (40-70%) WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
(20-40%). OVERALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LOW AND GENERALLY
<0.10-0.25" FOR ALL, WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AS
WELL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AM, WITH DECREASING
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-MID 70S THROUGH THIS STRETCH,
WITH NIGHTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
THE END OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE A SIMILAR SET-UP TO THE BEGINNING
OF THE WEEK, WITH THE REGION SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL SUPPORT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA WITH A WEAK WARM
FRONT ALONG THE CONFLUENCE ZONE. CONTINUED ADVECTION OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE KEEPS POPS (30-50% COVERAGE) AROUND FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. ON SUNDAY, A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IS
LIKELY TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, PAVING THE
WAY FOR A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN HEADING INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF
NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
TONIGHT (5-15 MPH), TURNING MORE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...DELAUNE/GUNKEL
AVIATION...UTTECH
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