021
FXUS63 KDVN 011855
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
155 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PERSISTENT BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING A RETURN OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
(40-60%). HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS UNLIKELY.
- THE RECENT LACK OF RAIN AND OVERALL LIMITED RAINFALL COVERAGE
LATER THIS WEEK IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AN EXPANSION OF
ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH INCREASED CHANCE OF MODERATE
DROUGHT DEVELOPING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 147 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS, WITH ELONGATED TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. GIVEN BETTER FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAINING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR
REGION, ALONG WITH A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES, CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE DRY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE A BIT COOLER COMPARED TO THIS MORNING AS LOWER DEW
POINT AIR AND LARGELY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOP, WITH LOWS DIPPING TO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S - SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...AS THE TEXTBOOK OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CONUS
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, THE TROUGH OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION PUSHES
SOUTHWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
KEEP OUR WINDS EASTERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
ADVECT IN SOME COOLER, DRIER AIR INTO THE CWA, SO DESPITE THE
RIDGING, TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN STALLED OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES FINALLY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA, KICKING THE RIDGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHEASTWARD
AND PULLING A SHORTWAVE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
AND NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA-CANADA BORDER AS OUR WINDS SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTH, ADVECTING IN WARMER, MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF. PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE BY 0.75 TO 1 INCH THURSDAY MORNING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND BANDS OF SHEAR VORTICITY ARE ADVECTED INTO UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 40-60% FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A RANGE FROM
A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO HALF AN INCH. THIS ALSO TRANSLATES TO
UNCERTAINTY IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WHERE CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL
COULD KEEP HIGHS CLOSER TO 80 OR WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD
BOLSTER HIGHS CLOSER TO 90. CURRENTLY, THE LREF HAS A 20-50%
CHANCE OF HIGHS EXCEEDING 85 THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
REGARDLESS THOUGH, LOWS WILL LIKELY (60-80% CHANCE) BE 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS DEWPOINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-60S.
IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER, CURRENT GEFS ENSEMBLES HAS A 40-70%
CHANCE OF SBCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG, BUT THE DISPLACED
TROUGH TO THE NORTH SHOULD LIMIT THE SURFACE TO 500MB EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR TO ONLY 25-30 KNOTS. WHILE THIS IS MODEST
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM IS PULLED
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY A LONGWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. WITH PWATS ALREADY HIGH FROM THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM, POPS ONCE AGAIN INCREASES WITH THE LREF GIVING 60-80%
COVERAGE. WHILE IT IS TOO FAR OUT TO ACCURATELY FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY WITH DEWPOINTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 70
DEGREES (40-60% CHANCE).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AND SLOWLY TURN MORE EASTERLY INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD. ONLY SOME PASSING DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED, OTHERWISE SKC.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...DELAUNE
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page