802
FXUS63 KDVN 301123
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
623 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWERS 60S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK. MAINLY 20 TO 40
PERCENT CHANCES OF RAIN ARE FORECAST MAINLY WEST OF A CEDAR
RAPIDS TO BURLINGTON LINE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CHANCES EXPAND
EAST OF THE RIVER SUNDAY NIGHT.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA AND PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A OMEGA BLOCK REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WITH ONE CLOSED
LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND THE SECOND CENTERED OVER EASTERN UTAH
AND WESTERN COLORADO AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA.
VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH TO OUR WEST IS FORECAST TO
UNDERCUT THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH AND DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND LIMIT ANY
SHOWER POTENTIAL TO AREA WEST OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO BURLINGTON
LINE. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED.
DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN THE THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SATURDAY,
LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, MODEL SPREAD CONTINUES TO
HAVE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WEST OF A CEDAR
RAPIDS TO BURLINGTON LINE WITH SLIGHT INCREASE IN CHANCES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
TO OUR WEST DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MODEL
SPREAD RESULTS IN 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE HIGH
PROBABILITIES, ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH NE TO
TENTHS POSSIBLE IF YOU SEE PRECIPITATION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A TILTING OF THE OMEGA BLOCK MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS CENTERED
ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE TEMPERATURES WARMING
FROM THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON MONDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS
WITH A BREAKDOWN OF THE OMEGA BLOCK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND
RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS AND LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
LOOKING BEYOND FRIDAY, ANOTHER BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO
THE MIDWEST NEXT WEEKEND BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTREME HEAT TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. CPC DAY 8-14 HAZARD OUTLOOK HAS A MODERATE RISK
(40-60%) FOR EXTREME HEAT JUNE 6TH-8TH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE
LATEST CPC 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS HAVE 85-90%
COMBINED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE JUNE
5TH-11TH TIMEFRAME. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE AS WELL WITH
NBM TD PROBS >60 DEGREES IN THE 60-80% RANGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS GUSTING UPWARDS TO 20 KTS AT TIMES
TODAY. OTHERWISE, WE WILL HAVE MID-HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY, WHERE AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
OUR SOUTH. NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS/GROSS
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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