053
FXUS63 KDVN 200800
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING MCS CONTINUING TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH
MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THEN CLOUDY COOLER AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY.
- THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY
FOR LINGERING RAIN AND FLOODING PROBLEMS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE A MID
TO LATE WEEK BREAK FROM THE PRECIP OCCURS. COOLER THAN NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
LOWS AT NIGHT IN THE 40S AND 50S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME FLOODING-PRODUCING MCS ACRS THE AREA ATTM WILL
CONTINUE TO LINGER AND PRODUCE SOME WRAP AROUND RAINS WELL INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST. WITH EXPECTED FLOODING AND
LINGERING FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS AS WELL AS SWOLLEN CREEKS/RIVERS
COMING UP, HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 18Z. THIS WITH THE
IDEA THAT THE NEXT SHIFT CAN CANCEL PORTIONS OF THE WATCH FROM THE
WEST AND THE NORTH AS NEED BE. THE REST OF THE DAY INTO THE EVENING
BEHIND THE EXITING LLVL WAVE TO BE CLOUDY, BREEZY AND COOLER IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S WITH SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN.
THE NORTHEAST WINDS AND CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT, KEEPING FOG AT
BAY. THERE IS SOME FOG THIS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE PRECIP LULL AREAS
SUCH AS THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR. AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY ACRS WY
ROLLS TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, MORE
SHOWERS MAY POP UP AND PUSH INTO THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE ABOVE MENTIONED COOL CORE UPPER LOW
PROPAGATES ACRS MN AND IA, IT SHOULD CONTINUE THE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
LIGHT SHOWERY REGIME FOR THE LOCAL AREA INTO PORTIONS OF TUE.
HIGHS IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. IF SOME CLEARING OCCURS
TUE NIGHT, CURRENTLY FCST THICKNESSES SUPPORT LOWS IN THE 40S.
IF SFC WINDS TREND LIGHT THE SAME NIGHT, WILL HAVE TO KEEP FOG
IN MIND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...QUICK LOOK AT THE LONGER RANGE SUGGESTS
KIND OF A MESSY AND PARTIALLY BLOCKED UPPER AIR PATTERN, WITH
ENOUGH RIDGING CLOSE BY OR OVERHEAD TO KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY
WED INTO THU, BEFORE AN UNDERCUTTING WAVE BATTLES THE RIDGING TO
BRING THE NEXT MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN/SHOWERS BY FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK SEASONABLE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
MCS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED LOW MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL HAMPER AVIATION
GREATLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE DBQ SITE WHICH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LOOK TO PASS SOUTH OF. PASSING SFC LOW
AND TROF WILL MAKE FOR VARIABLE AND RATHER LIGHT SFC WIND REGIME
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE THE SFC WAVE PASSES
AND ALLOWS FOR THE WINDS TO GO NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. IFR TO LOW MVFR
CLOUD DECKS WILL PERSIST MUCH OF SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE
TRENDING UP TO HIGHER CRITERIA MVFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. SOME CHANCE FOR VFR CIGS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY EVENING.
AFTER THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP MOVES OUT SUNDAY MORNING, THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SCTRD TO ISOLATED LIGHTER SHOWERS
DEVELOPING IN A HIT AND MISS FASHION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR IAZ040>042-
051>054-063>068-076>078.
IL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12
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