629
FXUS63 KDVN 221140
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
640 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY. DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND WEATHER, WITH A RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. WINDS THIS MORNING ARE WEAK, WITH A
SLIGHT WIND SHIFT JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY. TO
THE WEST, A SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALONG THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY,
WITH A STRATUS DECK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST.
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. DEEP MIXING TO 830MB WILL
ALLOW FOR THE PBL TO DRY CONSIDERABLY, WHICH WILL REDUCE ANY
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO NEAR ZERO. DESPITE THIS DEEP
MIXING, WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAK (<10MPH) DUE
TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT. TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON, CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THESE CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO COOL INTO THE
UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL TRACK ALONG
THE US-CANADA BORDER, WITH 5-15 DAM 12-HR HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AT 18Z THURSDAY. 850MB THETA-E MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PROGGED TO REACH
NORTHWEST IA AND EASTERN NE BY 00Z FRIDAY. LOCALLY, THE CWA WILL BE
FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS RISING
INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. ALOFT, AN EML PLUME WILL EFFECTIVELY
KEEP US CAPPED FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND WITH THE LACK OF A TRIGGER, A
DRY THURSDAY IS FORECAST. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO POTENTIAL STORMS
FIRING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. TAKING A LOOK AT ENSEMBLE CAM 40
DBZ PAINTBALLS AND CAPE/SHEAR COMBINED PROBABILITIES, THERE IS
AGREEMENT THAT CI SHOULD TAKE PLACE JUST TO OUR WEST FOR THE PRE-
FRONTAL ACTIVITY AFTER 6PM. MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO KEEP SEVERE
THREAT LIMITED INITIALLY BEFORE STORMS OUT IN WESTERN AND
CENTRAL IA GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINE OR TWO AND MOVES IN LATE.
HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY WANE BEFORE
STORMS ARRIVE THEREBY LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER, A STRENGTHENING LLJ MAY KEEP STORMS GOING INTO OUR AREA
WITH THE MAIN CONCERN DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION, 0-3 KM SHEAR
VECTORS OVER 35KTS DO BEGIN TO ALIGN ORTHOGONAL WITH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE STORMS AFTER 23Z, WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A VERY
LOW QLCS TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. AS A RESULT, SPC HAS ADDED A
SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF A LINE FROM DUBUQUE TO QUINCY, IL. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY AM, BEFORE
DIMINISHING MID-DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...A BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS IN STORE AS WE
TRANSITION FROM SEMI-ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH A DRY EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW KEEPING DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S/40S. AFTERNOON HIGHS TO TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S! PERFECT WEATHER FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...A BREEZY, COOLER, AND RAINY START TO NEXT
WEEK IS LOOKING LIKELY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INDUCING CYCLOGENSIS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES. 00Z
ENSEMBLE MEANS TAKE THE LOW FROM WESTERN KS ACROSS IA INTO
SOUTHERN WI BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE GEFS MAY BE A TAD FASTER THAN
OTHER SOLUTIONS BUT STILL HAS THE GENERAL CONSENUS TRACK. STRONG
850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF LOW COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL ALLOW SHOWERS/STORMS TO BLOSSOM AND OVERSPREAD
INTO THE REGION MONDAY. THE LATEST NBM 48-HR QPF >1.00" ENDING
12Z TUESDAY HAS INCREASED INTO THE 40-50% RANGE. TAKING A LOOK
AT SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS FAR OUT, BETTER OVERLAP OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN FURTHER TO OUR SOUTH AND IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY MOST ML/SPC OUTLOOKS. ALL IN ALL, A PROLONGED NICE
SOAKING RAIN IS FORECAST.
LOOKING JUST BEYOND THE 7 DAY FORECAST, THE CPC IS HIGHLIGHTING A
70% COMBINED PROBABILITY OF BELOW/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN ITS 8
TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK (APR 29TH-MAY 5). ENSEMBLE METEOGRAMS AT MLI WOULD
SUGGEST MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW 40S MAY BE POSSIBLE TO BEGIN THE MONTH
OF MAY!
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE LATER THIS MORNING AS AN MVFR STRATUS
DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS BRL. MODELS HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE COVERAGE OF THIS STRATUS, BUT LATEST GOES-
EAST SATELLITE HAS IT PROGRESSING FASTER THAN A LOT OF THE
MODELS, SO CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN IT MOVING THROUGH BRL
LATER THIS MORNING. EVENTUALLY, THE STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE BY
LATE MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY, GENERALLY
AROUND 5 TO 10+ KNOTS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ELLINGWORTH
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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