129
FXUS63 KDVN 230522
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1122 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
..UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEK,
WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY. FROM
THERE, TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN THROUGH THE
WEEK, BUT LARGELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH A SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA, WHICH MAY RESULT IN IMPACTS FOR
THE THURSDAY AM COMMUTE.
- LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS THE CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE START OF MARCH, WITH SLIGHT FAVORABILITY
(30- 40% CHANCE) FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
TONIGHT, WE WILL SEE THE LAST BOUT OF ENERGY PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA, AS THE BROAD TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SLOWLY STARTS
TO WRAP UP AND TREK EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE NORTH TO TRAVERSE SOUTH TOWARDS OUR AREA, SETTLING
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ALTHOUGH, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING OUT AND DRY AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT IN, WE WILL
SEE SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEARING SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF AGAIN, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
STARTED THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE/NO CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH THOSE IN THE EAST IN THE LOW TEENS. SOME IN OUR FAR
WEST MAY APPROACH NEAR ZERO! THUS, ANOTHER NIGHT WITH
UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR IN PLACE. WINDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE
NIGHT, BUT STILL LARGELY REMAIN 10-20 MPH. THUS, VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS WILL RESULT, GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE TEENS BELOW ZERO
IN OUR WEST TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE EAST. TOMORROW,
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHTER WINDS, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE TEENS IN OUR
NORTHWEST TO NEAR 30 IN OUR SOUTH. OTHERWISE, WE ARE JUST
EXPECTING A COOL AND CALM START TO THE WORK WEEK.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 127 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA, WHERE
WE WILL SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LLVLS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
MOVING TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY LLVL
FLOW WILL RESULT FROM THIS PATTERN, INCREASING MOISTURE AND CLOUD
COVER. CLOUDS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN MID-HIGH, BUT THICK ENOUGH MASK
THE SUN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE
QUITE A BIT ON TUESDAY DUE TO STARK SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO NEAR 50 IN
OUR SOUTH. THUS, WE ARE GOING RIGHT BACK TO UNSEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AREA. MOISTURE IN THE LLVLS STILL SEEMS
TO BE LOW, LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WE WILL HOLD ONTO THE
<20% POPS IN OUR NORTHEAST FOR NOW, BUT MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN,
WITH A STRONGER WAVE PROGGED TO COME THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, WHERE THE OVERALL SYSTEM IS DEPICTED THROUGHOUT
GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH, MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, OWING TO SOME
DIFFERENCES AMONGST GUIDANCE. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST PACKAGE, WITH THE GFS REMAINING THE NOTABLY STRONGER AND
MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER WAVE, RESULTING IN A COLDER
THERMAL PROFILE AND SNOW AS THE MORE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE.
THIS SOLUTION ALSO HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW,
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL INCHES FOR PARTS OF THE AREA, BUT IS
ALSO AN OUTLIER. ALSO, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW CONTINUES TO WOBBLE
NORTH/SOUTH WITH EACH RUN. THUS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT
SOLUTION. THE ECMWF HOWEVER, IS NOT AS AMPLIFIED AND
SUBSEQUENTLY WOULD SUPPORT MORE OF A MIX WITH SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE BUT GENERALLY LIGHT. BOTTOM LINE,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS DISTANCE IN THE DETAILS DUE TO
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH/TRACK/MOISTURE OF
THIS SYSTEM. ENSEMBLE MEANS OF GFS/ECMWF/CMC DEPICT THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH VERY LOOSE CLUSTERING OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK
FROM WISCONSIN, TO OVER PARTS OF THE AREA, TO EVEN SOUTH OF THE
SERVICE AREA. THIS TRACK WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES, ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE. STAY
TUNED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AS WE CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW AND TRAVEL IMPACTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT FROM A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA, WITH THE JET
CORE NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS, WE WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
WEAK WAVES TO EJECT OFF OF THE ROCKIES, BUT THE PATTERN HAS BECOME
LESS ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUSLY SUGGESTED IN PAST FORECAST CYCLES.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON TEMPERATURES, OWING TO DIFFERENT
LLVL FLOW PATTERNS. ALTHOUGH, CPC CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUIDANCE
IS STRUGGLING WITH THE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE STRATUS OVERHEAD AND ALSO
UPSTREAM INTO WI. VWP DATA SHOWS 25-30+ KT WITHIN THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER (~3-4KFT AGL) FROM THE NORTH, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE STRATUS
ROTATING DOWN THROUGH THE AREA LEADING TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR CEILINGS
BEING PREVALENT THOUGH SOME SPOTTY MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.
LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ANTICYCLONIC I WOULD EXPECT A DECREASE IN THE LOWER CLOUDS,
WHILE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BEGINS TO OCCUR AHEAD OF OUR NEXT
SYSTEM. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM N/NW AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS
PERIODICALLY AROUND 20 KT, PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING AT THE RIVER
SITES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY LEADING
TO A TRANSITORY BOUT OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL/MCCLURE
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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