543
FXUS63 KDVN 122340
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
640 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- WE CONTINUE TO HAVE MULTIPLE DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THIS
WEEK, ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH MORE
UNCERTAINTY FOR MONDAY'S SEVERE POTENTIAL.
- WARM AND SEASONABLY HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE AREA, THANKS TO A LOW-
AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD. A STRONG SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE,
HELPING TO INCREASE THETA-E ADVECTION AND SUPPORTING SOME WETTING
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD SEVERE
POTENTIAL LOW, WITH THE 12.12Z HREF ENSEMBLE SBCAPE VALUES
AROUND 500 J/KG. WITH THE STOUT LLJ IN PLACE, CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME LOCALLY STRONG WINDS THAT COULD BE GENERATED BY STRONGER
STORMS (GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH), BUT OTHERWISE, WE'RE NOT
OUTLOOKED FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER BY SPC. IN TOTAL, RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER TO A HALF-
INCH FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS NOW MORE
LIKELY ALONG A LINE FROM SIGOURNEY, IA NORTHEAST TOWARDS
FREEPORT, IL (A SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST).
ONCE THE EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS COME TO AN END, THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT LOOKS TO REMAIN QUIET UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
POSSIBLY SOME FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
WE CONTINUE TO EYE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR
MONDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PROG A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE WY/SD/NE
BORDER VIA LEE CYCLOGENESIS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE
UPPER TROUGH. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A
WARM FRONTAL ZONE TO LIFT NORTHWARD OVER MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN
AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. THIS PLACES US WELL WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR, WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING EVEN FURTHER, INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGHS. AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS CONCERNED, THERE ARE A FEW SCENARIOS THAT COULD
PLAY OUT:
1) STORMS INITIATE ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH, AND WITH THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT MORE ORIENTED WEST TO EAST AND THE NOSE OF
THE LLJ AIMED NORTH OF OUR REGION, SEVERE CONVECTION WOULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND REMAIN TO THE NORTH, OR
2) STORMS INITIATE ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN IOWA AND
TRANSLATE EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. THESE APPEAR POSSIBLE TO
CONSOLIDATE AND GENERATE A STRONG WIND THREAT, MAINLY ALONG OUR
NORTH.
OF THESE TWO SCENARIOS, SCENARIO 1 APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY, GIVEN
A PRETTY STOUT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML) AND CAPPING INVERSION IN
PLACE. WHILE OUR ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE UNSTABLE, THESE FACTORS
COULD HELP LIMIT OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT SCENARIO 2 OCCURS, SPC HAS MAINTAINED OUR
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR, WITH A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) AS FAR SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
OUR ATTENTION FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD STARTS RIGHT OFF THE BAT WITH
ANOTHER SEVERE STORM RISK FOR TUESDAY, AND THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE
MORE LIKELY TO BE ACTIVE FOR US. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT FROM
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE PULLED SOUTHWARD BY YET ANOTHER SURFACE LOW,
THIS ONE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS (FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE MONDAY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM). THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON THE INFLUENCE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTION (IF ANY DEVELOP) ON HOW
THINGS EVOLVE ON TUESDAY. IF THE BOUNDARY DOES REACH OUR
NORTHWESTERN CWA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, IT WILL BE GAME
ON FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE VOLATILE
THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO LOWER 80S FOR MOST, EXPECT INSTABILITY TO BE QUITE
HIGH, WITH THE GEFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF SBCAPE OF 2000 J/KG
OR HIGHER AROUND 50-80+ PERCENT ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN 2/3RDS
OF THE CWA. CURRENTLY, SPC HAS MAINTAINED A WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
RISK FOR OUR AREA, WITH ALL SEVERE HAZARDS POSSIBLE, INCLUDING
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. THERE IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY FOR A HIGHER THREAT LEVEL TO BE INTRODUCED FOR
SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES ABOUT TUESDAY!
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL ONLY CONTINUE
AS THE PRIMARY UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER ONE ON FRIDAY. WE CONTINUE
TO BE OUTLOOKED BY SPC FOR SLIGHT RISKS BOTH DAYS IN OUR REGION.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING AND SEVERITY AS PRIOR
CONVECTION CAN AUGMENT THE ENVIRONMENT, BUT THE VARIOUS MACHINE
LEARNING SEVERE PROBABILITY TOOLS SUGGEST THESE DAYS TO BE
VOLATILE FROM AN ENVIRONMENTAL PERSPECTIVE, SO MORE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON AS WE APPROACH THESE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. PREPARE FOR A
BUSY SEVERE WEATHER WEEK!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN APR 12 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST IL OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE SHOWERS AND THEN WILL DECREASE UNDER 12KTS LATE EVENING.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE PESSIMISTIC ON LIFR/IFR CLOUDS
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY AT CID/DBQ, BUT I AM NOT
OVERLY CONFIDENT ON THE DURATION OF LIFR CONDITIONS. KEPT IFR
CIGS OUT OF BRL/MLI FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THERE IS
ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF MVFR/IFR FOG DEVELOPING PRIOR TO SUNRISE
AT CID/DBQ AND HAVE INCLUDED THIS GIVEN THE WET GROUND.
OTHERWISE, MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON MONDAY DUE TO A TRAPPING INVERSION
BEFORE CONDITIONS GRADUALLY RETURN TO VFR. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 25 KTS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...GROSS
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