449
FXUS63 KDVN 010841
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
241 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF OUR AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WILL
BRING LOW- END CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS ALONG/SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 34. ACCUMULATIONS WILL LARGELY REMAIN LESS THAN AN
INCH.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK,
INCREASING DAILY THROUGHOUT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
WIDESPREAD 50S AND 60S CAN BE EXPECTED.
- AFTER MONDAY, WIDESPREAD DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SEEN,
WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME DRY
MOMENTS SEEN EACH DAY, WE WILL REMAIN GLOOMY AND DAMP THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. HAVE UMBRELLAS HANDY!
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH CLOUD
COVER INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF IT. BEST FORCING AND
MOISTURE WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT IN
OUR SOUTH FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 ARE IN LINE FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES, WITH THE HIGHER POPS
(30-70% CHANCE) ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THERMAL PROFILES
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW.
OVERALL, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT FOR THOSE THAT SEE SNOW. WE
CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW BEING ~10%.
THUS, CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTFUL SNOW IS LOW AT THIS TIME. THE 00Z
HREF DOES COME IN A LITTLE HIGHER ON QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM,
OWING TO THE NAM/HRRR LARGELY INFLUENCING IT. THE EVENING RUNS
OF THOSE CAMS BRING IN MORE MEASURABLE SNOW TO OUR AREA, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THOSE SOLUTIONS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. WITH THAT
SAID, THEIR ACCUMULATION RANGE IS LARGELY ABOUT 1-3". AGAIN,
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT FIGURED IT SHOULD BE
MENTIONED, ALBEIT BEING AN OUTLIER. SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN WORKING INTO OUR FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS, AS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK
WOULD BE NEEDED. THE CURRENT SOUTHERLY TRACK SHOULD KEEP US
LARGELY UNDER SNOW. OVERALL, PAVEMENT AND AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO OR ABOVE FREEZING, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MELT
ON PAVEMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL LARGELY
REMAIN QUIET WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE MID 30S IN OUR NORTH TO ABOUT 40 IN OUR SOUTH. MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S THROUGHOUT, WITH COLDEST READINGS IN OUR
NORTH DUE TO MORE PATCHY CLOUDINESS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE START OF THE LONG TERM BECOMING ZONAL
BY MIDWEEK. ALTHOUGH, WE WILL START THE WEEK WITH A BRIEF
TRANSITIONAL PERIOD BETWEEN WAVES, WHICH SHOULD LARGELY KEEP US DRY
THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK LLVL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE,
RESULTING IN NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE LOW-MID 40S, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THIS WILL BE THE START OF
ANOTHER DECENT WARM-UP THIS WEEK, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WORKING INTO THE AREA MIDWEEK AND BEYOND.
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WE WILL SEE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITION FROM
BRIEF ZONAL FLOW TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, BRINGING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. WE WILL
ALSO SEE A STARK INCREASE IN MOISTURE, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR
DAILY CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST OF THESE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES COMES IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH TUESDAY, AS THE
FIRST WAVE IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN MOVES THROUGH. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH THERMAL PROFILES
FAVORING THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE AS RAIN. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING AND COVERAGE OF RAIN, WITH THE NAM/EURO
COMING IN LESS WIDESPREAD AND FOCUSED IN OUR SOUTH WHEN COMPARED TO
THE GFS/CMC. HIGHEST RAINFALL PROBS REMAIN ALONG/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
80 (70-90% POPS), WITH LOWER PROBS NORTH (40-70% POPS). MUCH OF
GUIDANCE FAVORS OUR SOUTH AS THE ZONE FOR HIGHER PROBS, INCLUDING
THE NAM/EURO. IN EITHER CASE, IT LOOKS TO BE A GLOOMY AND CLOUDY DAY
THROUGHOUT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS TO BE A PERSISTENT AND LONG DURATION
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY. THUS, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING HEAVY
RAINFALL, NOR HIGH TOTALS. CURRENT WPC GUIDANCE FAVORS ABOUT 0.50-
0.75" ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE AT
THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND, WE WILL CONTINUE TO FALL UNDER THIS ACTIVE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN, WITH MODEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO
PUMP INTO THE REGION. WITH CONSTANT MOISTURE FLOW, WE WILL ALSO SEE
PERSISTENT SHORTWAVES EJECTING OFF OF THE ROCKIES. THUS, WE WILL
GENERALLY SEE CONTINUOUS POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
GRANTED, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING NON-STOP RAINFALL AT THIS TIME. WE
WILL HAVE SOME DRY TIME, BUT THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE
GLOOMY AND DAMP NONETHELESS. ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES, WE WILL ALSO
SEE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WORK THROUGH. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME. IN SUCH A PATTERN, WE WILL ALSO SEE
TEMPERATURES TREND WELL ABOVE NORMAL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
UPWARDS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD UPPER 50S TO 60S POSSIBLE BY/ON FRIDAY. FOR REFERENCE,
THESE TEMPERATURES ARE 10-20+ DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS! ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THAT DENSE CLOUD COVER AND PERSISTENT POPS MAY
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPS THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL FEATURE A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THUS, WE WILL REMAIN UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH/ALL OF THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH A SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING
WHICH MAY BRING SOME AVIATION IMPACTS TO BRL. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW ON HOW FAR NORTH THE BAND OF SNOW MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THUS, OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, WE WILL BE LEFT WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KTS TODAY, SLOWLY SHIFTING MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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