830  
FXUS63 KDVN 082343  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
643 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR AREAS  
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80  
 
- SLIGHT CHANCE (20-30%) OF VERY LIGHT RAIN LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY;  
MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY  
 
- PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY  
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK; DROUGHT  
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OR WORSEN NEXT WEEK  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025  
 
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LOITER OVER THE  
WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, AND GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST ON  
THURSDAY. THIS, ALONG WITH UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, WILL KEEP OUR SKIES  
CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT-TERM CONTINUES TO BE ON FROST POTENTIAL  
FOR TONIGHT. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE  
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ONLY STRENGTHEN TONIGHT, AND  
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER  
CHILLY NIGHT VIA RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE EXPECT TONIGHT SHOULD  
GENERALLY BE COOLER THAN THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE HIGH  
APPROACHES THE LOCAL REGION, SO WE HAVE GONE ON THE COLDER SIDE  
OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM (NEAR THE 25TH PERCENTILE), RESULTING IN  
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40 TO THE  
SOUTH. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR  
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WHERE TEMPERATURES  
CLOSER TO THE MIDDLE 30S ARE MOST LIKELY. DUE TO THE PATCHY  
NATURE, WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.  
 
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON  
THURSDAY, RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND SLIGHT WARM AIR  
ADVECTION TO HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...A COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST  
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. AS  
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED  
AS SHOWN BY 1000-500MB RH PROGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IN  
ADDITION, BETTER FORCING WILL BE DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH AND  
SOUTHWEST, SO WHILE WE STILL HAVE 20-30 PERCENT POPS, IT MAY END  
UP JUST BEING SPRINKLES OR A VERY LIGHT SHOWER. NOT WHAT WE  
NEED TO HELP THE INCREASING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. AN INTERESTING  
NOTE WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS THE NAM HAS COME IN WITH A SLOWER  
AND DEEPER 500MB LOW THAT LINGERS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN ON  
SATURDAY. IF THIS VERIFIES, THEN SATURDAY MAY BE COOLER WITH  
MORE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN IL.  
 
SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...500MB RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST OVER THE LOCAL  
AREA WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER  
SYSTEM NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS  
THE CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK (592 DAM CENTERED OVER DALLAS)  
AND, UNFORTUNATELY, KEEP ANY REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA TO OUR WEST.  
THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM AND  
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE  
UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THE LATEST 6-10 DAY  
TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FROM CPC HAS VERY HIGH PROBABILITIES (>70%)  
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE OCT 13TH-17TH TIMEFRAME. THOSE  
WANTING CONSISTENT FALL CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO WAIT A LITTLE  
LONGER TO BREAK OUT THE JACKETS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025  
 
THIS EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO  
INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
THIS WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. EASTERLY  
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE  
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AFTER 12 UTC ON THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10  
KNOTS.  
 
 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ  
LONG TERM...GROSS  
AVIATION...COUSINS  
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