425
FXUS63 KDVN 141929
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
229 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TONIGHT, LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH
FLOODING IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
- SEASONALLY STRONG COLD FRONT TO COME THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK,
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS AND COOL NIGHTS. THERE WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR FROST AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
A QUIET EVENING IS AHEAD OF US, WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH, THE QUIET WILL BE SHORT-LIVED,
AS WE SEE WEAK RIDGING MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND LLVL SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN CHANGE IS RESULTING FROM
A WAVE DIGGING IN FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, PHASING WITH A WAVE
EJECTING OFF OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. NOT ONLY WILL THIS INDUCE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE STRONGER WAVE, BUT BOUTS OF ENERGY
WILL ALSO PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS SUCH, PLENTY OF
FORCING WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. UNSEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO THE
TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH THE GULF AND MOISTURE COMING FROM SIMON IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC. PWATS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 1.50-2.00" RANGE,
PLACING US NEAR/ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX FOR THE DAY. WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL PASS THROUGH, WITH SOME BRIEF HEAVIER
BOUTS OF RAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL,
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER, AS THIS SEEMS TO BE MORE
OF A STRATIFORM/SHOWERY RAINFALL EVENT RATHER THAN CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN. THUS, WE ARE GENERALLY FORECASTING <1.00" OF RAIN FOR THE
WHOLE AREA, WITH SOME POSSIBLY ONLY SEEING AROUND 0.50". THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL
FALL, AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY GREATLY BETWEEN AREAS
NORTH/SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAVORING
AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE FOR SEEING UPWARDS TO AN INCH OF
RAIN, WITH THOSE SOUTH SEEING AROUND 0.50". ALTHOUGH, CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER ON THAT RIGHT NOW.
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, LEAVING US IN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS.
THIS AIRMASS WILL BE QUITE DIFFERENT THAN WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME
TIME, WITH WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS MOVING IN. WE ARE LOOKING
AT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT, OWING TO MODERATE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS TO 20-30+ MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO COOL INTO THE MID 40S OVERNIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE AREA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY OF WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FROST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF A
FREEZE IS AT 20-30 PERCENT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WINDY CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MID-DAY
FRIDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW A TROP FOLD MOVING THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL INCREASE WINDS. THE MODELS GENERALLY
AGREE THE TROP FOLD WILL BE DOWN TO 400-500 MB BUT SOME SOLUTIONS
HAVE THE TROP FOLD AS SUB 500 MB. OVERALL, WE ARE LOOKING AT
SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER ON THE HIGHER END OF THE WIND GUST RANGE, BUT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING THE FROST POTENTIAL TO MUCH OF
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. CLOUD COVER WILL BE THE
KEY TO HOW COLD IT WILL GET. THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
IS ALSO THERE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. RIGHT NOW THE
PROBABILITY OF FREEZING TEMPERATURES IS AT 20-30 PERCENT. LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA, ALONG WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR AND IFR AROUND 06Z
TONIGHT AND BEYOND. A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA
TONIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND IMPACTS THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. REDUCTIONS IN CIGS WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST IMPACT
FOR MOST TERMINALS, WITH CIGS DROPPING BETWEEN 1000-2000 FT
PRIOR TO 12Z, THEN DECREASING TO <1000 FT FOR MOST LOCATIONS
BETWEEN 12-16Z. WE WILL ALSO SEE REDUCTIONS IN VIS, LARGELY
BETWEEN 3-5 SM, BUT LOWER VIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL
START THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, SLOWLY
SHIFTING EASTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL/08
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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