623
FXUS63 KDVN 052313
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
613 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SUNSET. THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUDS AS
CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPS.
- HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK BUT WILL NOT BE
OPPRESSIVE LIKE LAST WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH THE
RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON SHOW DIURNAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING THAT IS BEING AIDED MAINLY BY A VORT MAX DROPPING SOUTH
FROM WISCONSIN. SAID CONVECTION WILL REACH ITS PEAK COVERAGE BETWEEN
3 AND 530 PM AT 10-25%; IN ESSENCE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED.
AFTER SUNSET THE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE ATMOSPHERE AND LIGHT WINDS, SOME PATCHY FOG
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS. SOME
MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THAT MAY OR MAY NOT PRODUCE A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) CONFIDENCE OF RISING
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP AS MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTH IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50%) CONFIDENCE ON RAIN CHANCES
THE MODELS SHOW A STORM SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT
WILL DRAG A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS BUT THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
HIGHLIGHTING THE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING TIME
FRAME AS THE RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
CURRENTLY RAIN CHANCES AT 30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE FOR THE RAIN IS MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.
WHILE THERE IS GULF MOISTURE ATTEMPTING TO GET INTO THE AREA, IT IS
ARRIVING VIA MEXICO AND THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS; PLENTY OF TIME FOR
IT TO BE INTERCEPTED BY STORM DEVELOPMENT MUCH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
AND WEST. ADDITIONALLY, THE MJO IS CURRENTLY IN PHASE 6 WORKING ITS
WAY TO PHASE 7 WHICH GENERALLY IS ASSOCIATED WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL RAINFALL CHANCES.
THUS IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAIN CHANCES MAY SHOW A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE
DELTA AS THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ASSESSMENT...VERY LOW (10-20%) CONFIDENCE ON RAIN CHANCES
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THAT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW
SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW ALOFT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON ROUGHLY A DAILY BASIS. THUS IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AVAILABLE SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION CANNOT FULLY BE RULED OUT.
RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR RAIN
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISTURBANCE ACTING UPON WHAT REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THURSDAY IS STILL
AVAILABLE. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT ALL OF THE OF THE
TAF PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BECOMING NEAR CALM AT TIMES, INCREASING TO 5-10 KTS BY 18Z
MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A LOW-END CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS. ALTHOUGH, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THE POTENTIAL (<20%), ALONG WITH COVERAGE. OPTED TO LEAVE OUT
OF TAFS AT THIS TIME AND WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER SIG WX IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WIDESPREAD 48-HR RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 3-5 INCHES WERE COMMON
ACROSS CENTRAL IA NORTHEAST TOWARDS WATERLOO. SOME HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 9 INCHES WERE REPORTED PARTICULARLY IN THE
HEADWATERS OF THE SKUNK RIVER. THESE AMOUNTS FELL IN A SHORT
AMOUNT OF TIME RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IN MOST OF THE
IOWA TRIBUTARY RIVERS IN EASTERN IA. THANKFULLY, MOST OF THE
POINTS IN EASTERN IA WERE WELL BELOW FLOOD STAGE PRIOR TO THIS
RAIN AND WITHIN BANK RISES ARE FORECAST. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE THE
IOWA RIVER AT MARENGO, THE WAPSI RIVER NEAR DE WITT AND THE
NORTH SKUNK RIVER NEAR SIGOURNEY. FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
WITH A MAJOR FLOOD FORECAST FOR DE WITT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. NO APPRECIABLE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, SO ROUTED FLOW
WILL BE FORECAST.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...GUNKEL
HYDROLOGY...GROSS/08
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