174
FXUS63 KDVN 221747
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1147 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK,
BRINGING US WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH LOW-END CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ON
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS. THIS WILL USHER
WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
IN OUR NORTH TO MID-UPPER 40S IN OUR SOUTH. A SOUTHERLY BREEZE WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS, GIVING A LITTLE CHILL TO THE AIR, ALBEIT FROM A
WARMER SOURCE REGION. WITH THIS WAVE PASSING NORTH, WE WILL BE
DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE. THUS, THE ONLY SIGN
OF A SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER AND MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS. PASSING
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
30S. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD REMAINS DRY
AND QUIET.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
WE REMAIN ON TRACK FOR A MOSTLY QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY MILD STRETCH
OF WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL
SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH US SITUATED ALONG THE TOP OF IT.
THIS WILL KEEP US UNDER LARGELY ZONAL FLOW, WITH LITTLE/NO MOVEMENT
IN THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH MIDWEEK, KEEPING THE WEATHER RELATIVELY
SIMILAR FROM DAY TO DAY. DEEP WAVE WILL ALSO REMAIN SITUATED OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
WEAK BOUTS OF ENERGY OVER THE ROCKIES AND TRACK ALONG THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVES TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA,
BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW, WITH MAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FAVOR
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION THAT DAY, LARGELY IN THE FORM OF
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. OVERALL, ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE <0.10" FOR
ANYONE THAT SEES RAIN. ASIDE FROM THE LOW-END CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY, WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. EACH PASSING
WAVE WILL BRING MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THEM, INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
DAILY THROUGH MIDWEEK, BRINGING US WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF WARMING WITH NBM GUIDANCE
COMING IN QUITE WARM (50S/60S THURSDAY ESPECIALLY), WHILE THE
REMAINDER OF GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES FAVOR LOWER TEMPERATURES. IN
EITHER CASE, WE WILL BE UNSEASONABLY MILD FOR CHRISTMAS.
AFTER THURSDAY, GUIDANCE WOULD FAVOR THE BREAKDOWN OF THE WAVE
SITTING OVER THE WEST, ALLOWING OUR RIDGE OVERHEAD TO FLATTEN A BIT.
WITH THIS BREAKDOWN, STRONGER WAVES WILL NOW BE ABLE TO WORK THEIR
WAY FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE REGION. AS DEEPER WAVES START TO PUSH IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST, WE WILL START TO SEE COOLER AIR WORK INTO THE
AREA, LARGELY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH, GUIDANCE WOULD FAVOR THE
CONTINUATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE SEEMS TO REMAIN AN ISSUE AT THIS POINT, WHICH LIMITS OUR
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION. SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING TO
INTRODUCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO QUITE THE DIFFERENCES AMONGST
GUIDANCE. THUS, OPTED TO STICK WITH NBM POPS, WHICH KEEP US LARGELY
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ASIDE FROM A FEW AREAS OF <20% POPS IN OUR
EAST. BEYOND THE WEEKEND, GUIDANCE DOES NOT HAVE A GRASP ON THE
PATTERN, BUT LARGELY DO INDICATE A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NONETHELESS.
THIS IS REFLECTED THROUGH THE 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOK AS WELL,
HIGHLIGHTING THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND FAVORING
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
PERIODS OF LOW CLOUDS TODAY WILL LEAD TO OCCASIONAL MVFR
CEILINGS WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ANTICIPATED BY THIS EVENING OR
INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, EXPECT STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS TURNING
TO THE WNW INTO TUESDAY AM.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...UTTECH
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