267
FXUS63 KDVN 301146
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
546 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
..12Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BRING SOME ROUNDS
OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE DVN FORECAST AREA FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO EARLY
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT AND UNDER AN INCH.
- ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT SIMILAR AREAS MAINLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO
BE AN INCH OR LESS FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-80.
- A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR(WV) IMAGERY WAS INDICATING THE FIRST
UPSTREAM CLIPPER CURRENTLY ACRS THE MT/ND BORDER REGION, EMBEDDED IN
DOMINANT NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW ACRS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
IT WILL HAVE DRY AIR TO OVERCOME, BUT THIS FEATURE STILL EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ACRS GENERALLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FCST AREA FROM LATE MORNING AND ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE SHUTTLING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA. LOOKING AT COMBINED LIFT AND MOISTURE PROFILES, EVEN
RATHER HIGH LSR'S OF 13 TO 16:1 PRODUCE LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
ACCUM BY THE TIME IT IS DONE. THE FAR NORTHWEST IL COUNTIES/
FREEPORT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A HALF INCH TO NEAR AN
INCH FROM THIS FIRST WAVE, TAILING OFF TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OR A DUSTING AS YOU GET DOWN TOWARD I-80. AS THE SNOW SKIRTS
OUT OF HERE THIS EVENING, FCST SOUNDINGS DO TOP-DOWN DRY TO FREEZING
DRIZZLE PROFILES AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. BUT WILL
HOLD OFF MENTION FOR NOW AS HOPING THE LIFT IS SHUT OFF BEHIND THE
PASSING UPPER WAVE AND IS SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THE
DRIZZLE SOUNDINGS OCCUR ACRS THE AREA.
AS FOR TEMPS, PRE-SYSTEM SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GETTING
GUSTY WILL DO A WARMING DRAW OF AIR UP ACRS THE AREA AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WILL BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE AFTER A COLD START TO THE DAY
AND WITH INCOMING CLOUDS/LIGHT PRECIP, WILL GO WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTHEAST, TO THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHWEST.
VEERING LLVL WIND PROFILES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSING
CLIPPER KEEP GOING AT 10-15 KTS AND THUS THE MIXING MAY KEEP
OVERNIGHT LOWS FROM DIPPING MUCH BELOW THE MID AND UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
WEDNESDAY...TIGHTENING LOW TO MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC HIGHWAY FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN GRT LKS WILL LOOK TO USHER
DOWN YET ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE. THIS WAVE LOOKS
SIMILAR TO THE TUESDAY CLIPPER IN STRENGTH AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY, BUT MAY ADJUST IT'S TRACK A BIT FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHWEST. LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
FROM LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, AGAIN MAINLY TARGETING THE
EAST-NORTHEAST HALF OF THE DVN CWA BEFORE IT SCOOTS OUTTA HERE BY
EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF LESS THAN AN INCH IN MOST AREAS THAT
RECEIVE SNOW, WITH AREAS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR
LUCKY TO GET A DUSTING. AGAIN LIKE TODAY(TUESDAY), WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR POST SNOW FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE LIFT
SHUTS OFF OR EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. WITH NO REAL POST WAVE COLD
DRAW BEHIND THE TUE SYSTEM, THE WED WAVE WILL BUILD UPON THE
INCREASED THICKNESSES AND WE MAY HAVE HIGHS WELL IN THE 30S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. THE COLDER INFLUX WITH AN INCOMING CANADIAN HIGH LOOKS
TO OCCUR BEHIND THE WED WAVE AND TEMPS BY NEW YEAR'S MORNING LOOK
COLD, WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE NORTH TO THE MID TEENS
SOUTH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RIGHT NOW ENSEMBLE THERMODYNAMIC AND MASS
FIELD PLACEMENT SUGGEST THESE TWO DAYS MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE
TEMP-WISE FOR EARLY JANUARY...ADDITIONAL CLIPPER TRACK MAY BE SHUNTED
MORE ACRS MN INTO WI/CENTRAL GRT LKS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LOOKING AT THE LATEST SUITE OF ENSEMBLES
AND UPPER JET TRENDS, IT APPEARS BUILDING UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE LOBE
WILL MAKE AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT SOME ENOUGH TO BRING A MODERATING
TEMPERATURE REGIME ACRS THE MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE
LOCAL AREA FROM LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS MAY BE IN LINE FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
IT APPEARS MAINLY DRY THIS PERIOD AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
SIGNS OF AN INITIAL WAVE RIDING THE RIDGE AND UTILIZING WARM AIR
ADVECTION TO POSSIBLE PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PRECIP LATER SUNDAY OR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
AN APPROACHING CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACRS THE AREA, AS WELL AS MAKE THE
SFC WINDS SOUTHWESTERLY AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING. AN
INCOMING LOWERING MID DECK WITH LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY CLIP
CID AND ESPECIALLY DBQ BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND MLI
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ROUND SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR CIGS AND
VSBYS, BUT THEN DBQ MAY GET UNDER A SECONDARY ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW THAT MAY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR BY EARLY EVENING, WITH
POSSIBLE MVFR VSBYS AT TIMES AS WELL. GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY SFC
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL VEER BACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING AFTER THE CLIPPER PASSAGE. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME POST FRONTAL MVFR CLOUD DECKS FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12
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