676
FXUS63 KDVN 212314
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
514 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BEAUTIFUL WEEKEND IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60S WITH PLENTY OF SUN.
- ACTIVE NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE SYSTEMS TO WATCH. MILD
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN COOLING OFF
TOWARD THE HOLIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS THE WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA. DRIER AIR, DENOTED IN THE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH
DVN 18Z RAOB, WILL KEEP THIS RAIN SOUTH, EVEN THOUGH RADAR
DEPICTS RETURNS AS FAR NORTH AS I-80. EXPECT A MORE PRONOUNCED
TREND TOWARD CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S.
SATURDAY, RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THIS
WILL USHER IN A QUIET AND HIGHLY FAVORABLE START TO THE WEEKEND
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THE PLEASANT FORECAST IS ACCOMPANIED
BY A WARMING TREND, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO
THE MID 50S, ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON OVERALL PLEASANT
TEMPERATURE PATTERN, WITH A MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERING TIGHTLY BETWEEN 52 AND 57 DEGREES. MAIN THEME, BE
SURE TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THE WEEKEND WEATHER!
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
OVERALL, LONG TERM DISCUSSION FROM OVERNIGHT IS STILL
REPRESENTATIVE.
SUNDAY...WHILE A REX BLOCK REIGNS ACRS THE
WESTERN THIRD OR SO OF THE CONUS, THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE THE
BENEFICIARY OF LEE SIDE RIDGING AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW MAKING
FOR A DRY AND MILD WEEKEND FOR LATE NOVEMBER. AS LONG AS WE GET
THE SUNSHINE, ADVECTED IN THERMAL PARAMETERS SUPPORT HIGHS IN
THE 50S AND DIURNAL SWING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S SUNDAY
MORNING. SUNDAY WE COULD HAVE SOME 60S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
SOUTH WINDS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE FOR MILDER
LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LATEST SUITE OF ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE
UPSTREAM UNDERCUTTING LOW PRESSURE PORTION OF THE BLOCK OUT WEST
WILL LOOK TO ROLL TOWARD THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. PRE-WAVE WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR WILL LOOK TO FUEL RAIN MOVING UP ACRS THE AREA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND LASTING WELL INTO MONDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVING OFF
TO THE EAST TUESDAY MORNING. EARLY INDICATIONS THIS MAY BE ANOTHER
TENTH TO NEAR A HALF INCH RAINFALL EVENT. THE MILD TEMPS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, THEN BEYOND IN THE MID TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD, IT APPEARS WAVY WITH A LOT OF NOISE IN THE ENSEMBLES
MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS JUNCTURE. FLOW PATTERNS AND MID
CONUS BAROCLINIC LAY OUT AT QUESTION AND SHOWING HIGH VARIANCE, BUT
A GENERAL COOLING TREND MAY LOOK TO HAPPEN. THE STEERING FLOW COULD
BE SPLIT AGAIN AND MAKING IT HARD TO DETERMINE WHERE THE PRIME WEST-
EAST BAROCLINIC STORM HIGHWAYS LAY OUT ACRS THE CENTRAL CONUS. OF
COURSE THIS LEADS INTO A HIGH PROFILE HOLIDAY PERIOD LATE WEEK AND A
WINDOW TO WATCH FOR TRENDS OF POTENTIAL RAIN OR SNOW MAKERS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2025
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL END BY 06Z/22 AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST. AFTER 12Z/22 LIGHT
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...GIBBS/12
AVIATION...08
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