379
FXUS63 KDVN 080543
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1243 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS (20-40%) AND AN ISOLATED STORM WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH A DRY NIGHT FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA.
- PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
- A PLEASANT MOTHER'S DAY IS EXPECTED, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND HIGHS WARMING TO THE 60S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWESTERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
AROUND A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED AROUND HUDSON BAY CANADA.
WITHIN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW, A COMPACT MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS OVER OUR REGION, KEEPING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-40%) AND
ISOLATED STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. A CORRIDOR OF WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER OUR SOUTHERN
CWA WILL HELP MAINTAIN THESE SHOWER CHANCES INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL (LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH) IS EXPECTED
FROM THESE SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED AREAS SEEING POSSIBLY UP TO A
QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL PER THE 07.12Z HREF
PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEAN VALUE.
THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ONCE THEY
DIMINISH AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES OUR SOUTHERN CWA FOR FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT THE CLEARING SHOULD BE BRIEF AS A LAYER OF
HIGHER CLOUDS BUILDS IN NEAR OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THIS SHOULD LIMIT OUR FROST POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
AS THE NEXT COMPACT SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA, THE BULK OF THE
LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE IN THE MORNING, AND THE LATEST CAMS
SUGGEST PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE ITS HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-80. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG THE CAMS/GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION, BUT IT'S POSSIBLE THE RAIN COULD STAY
EVEN FARTHER SOUTH (SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34). RAINFALL WITH THIS SHOULD
ALSO REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED (LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH), ALTHOUGH
SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. SOME DEEP PBL
MIXING IS POSSIBLE YET AGAIN FRIDAY, THE WIND THROUGH THE COLUMN IS
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER, SO GUSTS AREN'T EXPECT TO BE ANYWHERE
NEAR AS STRONG AS THEY WERE TODAY UNDER THE SHOWERS. PERSISTENT
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SHOULD ALSO RESULT IN HIGHS WARMING TO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 206 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THE UPCOMING MOTHER'S DAY WEEKEND LOOKS DRY OVERALL, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S SATURDAY. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING, WHICH WILL BRING
A FEW MORE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TO THE AREA. SATURDAY NIGHT
APPEARS TO BE THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMING FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, BUT
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOTS OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WHICH
WILL LIMIT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. SATURDAY COULD BE A BIT GUSTY AS
WELL, AS THE PBL IS PROGGED TO DEEPLY MIX, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. MOTHER'S DAY SUNDAY IS LOOKING VERY PLEASANT,
WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND LOTS OF SUNSHINE!
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO
REMAIN ACTIVE, WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BEING MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY FOR A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
SASKATCHEWAN CANADA TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. THIS APPEARS TO BE OUR MOST
LIKELY CHANCES (40-70%) OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. THIS FAR OUT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING OF THE
TROUGH AND COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION, GIVEN DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM THE NBM HAVE STEADILY INCREASED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS, SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A WETTING RAINFALL WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS PRODUCING SPOTTY SHRA ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KMLI
AND KBRL THROUGH 08Z TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOUR PERIOD AS THE CURRENT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD DECK
MOVES OUT AND IS REPLACED WITH A SCT TO BKN CIRRUS DECK FRIDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING WESTERLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ
AVIATION...DELAUNE
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