148
FXUS63 KDVN 022318
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
518 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM SWEEPS THROUGH OUR NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT, BRINGING LOW CHANCES (20 TO 40%) OF
A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
- TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER AROUND SEASONAL VALUES, WITH A FEW
FLUCTUATIONS, THROUGH MID WEEK. THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY
WARM ABOVE NORMAL BY LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
AFTER AN AFTERNOON WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING TO THE MIDDLE 20S ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TO THE LOWER
30S ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH. ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY TURN TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW (20-40%) ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES
THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BANDED PRECIPITATION SIGNATURE, LIKELY DUE TO 925-850 MB LAYER FGEN
FORCING. THE 02.12Z HREF ENSEMBLE SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS A GOOD BIT OF
DRY AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SNOW AMOUNTS DESPITE A
SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) ALOFT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
PRETTY HIGH THAT AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED (UP TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW IS POSSIBLE), BUT WITH THE SNOW COMING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, SOME OF THE SNOW MAY STICK ON ROADWAYS, SO JUST SOMETHING TO
BE COGNIZANT ABOUT FOR SLICK SPOTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES TONIGHT.
EVEN AFTER WE LOSE ICE CRYSTALS ALOFT, THE DRY AIR IN PLACE APPEARS
LIKELY TO LIMIT ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE ISSUES TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE SNOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DIP TO THE LOWER TEENS ALONG HIGHWAY
20 TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, WITH
HIGHS LIKELY IN THE LOWER 20S ALONG HIGHWAY 20, WITH LOWER 30S SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. WITH CONTINUED NORTHERLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT,
WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE AS WE WILL HAVE
THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL INVERSION LINGERING. MODELS APPEAR TO DIMINISH
CLOUD COVER PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE, BUT SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING, THE STRATOCU COULD LINGER LONGER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.
CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST HIGH FOR DRY CONDITIONS EITHER WAY FOR
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY... LOOKING TO A DRY MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER OUR CWA CONTINUES TO DRIFT TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THURSDAY. A
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND OUT OF THE
NORTH, KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE AS RADIATIONAL
COOLING CAN MAXIMIZE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... A STRONG NW-SE ORIENTED JET STREAK WILL
ADVECT DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ALLOWING FOR A
DEEPENING OF THE HUDSON BAY LOW. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AND ACCORDING TO THE
LREF, THERE IS A 90% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ABOVE
FREEZING EITHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA. THIS TREND COMES TO AN END ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH, RETURNING THE CWA TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
THERE IS DISAGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE MODELS ON THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT DUE TO MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION
AND THE AMPLITUDE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH. THEREFORE, POPS ARE
CURRENTLY RESTRICTED TO 10% ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM, BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE AGREEMENT AMONG
ENSEMBLE MODELS OF A SURFACE HIGH ANCHORING TO OUR NORTH AND EAST.
THIS WILL INTRODUCE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND, ALLOWING FOR
THE WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE LOW-TO-MID 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
AN MVFR STRATOCU CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER OUR
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, INCLUDING THE BRL TAF TERMINAL.
THESE MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TO LATE TONIGHT. TO THE NORTH, A HIGH CIRRUS DECK
HAS EXPANDED ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN INCOMING CLIPPER
SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OUR NORTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING INTO LATE TONIGHT. DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE, ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURS WILL BE VERY LIGHT SNOW. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP FOR DBQ AS CHANCES REMAIN
VERY LOW SOUTH OF THERE. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY MATERIALIZE WITH
THIS SNOW. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE
OF THE CLIPPER, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS QUITE LOW IN THIS
OCCURRING.
EVENTUALLY, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TUESDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES REMAINS
UNCERTAIN AS MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED RESOLVING CLOUD COVER IN THE
MORNING HOURS LATELY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...CD
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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