186  
FXUS63 KDVN 061905  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
205 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (30-60%)  
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, MOST LIKELY  
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  
OTHERWISE, MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY.  
 
- PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE PICTURE  
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT WITH PLENTY OF DRY PERIODS  
INTERSPERSED.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND OUR REGION THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS (30-60%) AT TIMES THROUGH  
THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI  
RIVER. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING  
MECHANISM FOR THIS ACTIVITY, WHICH EXTENDS FROM A SURFACE LOW OVER  
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN. THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETER SPACE LOOKS TO BE  
WEAKER FOR STRONGER STORMS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WITH WEAKER LOW-  
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (<7.5 C/KM) AND PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.7 TO 2.0  
INCHES. MLCAPE VALUES REMAIN AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG PER THE LATEST  
SPC MESOANALYSIS/RAP13 OUTPUT.  
 
ALTHOUGH SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY, A FEW BRIEF FUNNEL  
CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AS HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING ENHANCED SURFACE  
VORTICITY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH, COMBINED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL  
CAPE (0-3 KM 100+ J/KG). LATEST RAP NST PARAMETER VALUES ARE  
HIGHLIGHTING THE BOUNDARY WITH VALUES OF ~1-3.  
 
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S  
AND DEWPOINTS BETWEEN 65 TO 70 DEGREES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS  
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CORN BELT REGION, SO MOST OF THE DAY  
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS CAN'T BE RULED  
OUT ENTIRELY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG A MID-LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA, BUT THE 06.12Z HREF ENSEMBLE  
SHOWS A PRETTY STRONG SIGNAL FOR ANY ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED, SO  
AGAIN, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
A FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD IS ON TAP FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH  
OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST. A FEW MID-  
LEVEL IMPULSES ARE PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA DURING THIS TIME  
FRAME, PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. SPC HAS  
INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS  
TUESDAY FOR THE THREAT OF A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IN THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING HOURS. ANALYSIS OF THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETER SPACE SHOWS  
A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO THE LAST FEW SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS WE'VE  
HAD, WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. STEEP LOW-LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES AND PWATS EXCEEDING 2" ONCE AGAIN WILL SUPPORT THE  
POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS. SEEMS LIKE THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND  
TORNADOES IS VERY LOW, GIVEN VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND A  
MORE UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILE TO PRECLUDE ANY TORNADO THREAT.  
 
ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME  
SIGNALS IN THE VARIOUS EXTENDED MACHINE LEARNING OUTPUT FOR THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, BUT WITH THIS THREAT  
SO FAR OUT, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  
STILL, SOMETHING TO BE MINDFUL OF THOUGH AS WE GO THROUGH THE  
WEEK.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.  
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL  
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WHICH COULD IMPACT DBQ, MLI,  
AND BRL. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS GENERALLY LOWER ON THE  
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO DIFFERENCES AMONG  
THE HIGH-RES MODELS. MLI APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS  
COMPARED TO OTHER TAF SITES.  
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH 18Z MONDAY, WITH A  
PERIOD OF MVFR FOG POSSIBLE FOR DBQ AND CID. WHILE IFR  
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ENTIRELY, THE NBM  
PROBABILITIES FOR IFR REMAIN AROUND 20%, SO TOO UNCERTAIN AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ  
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ  
AVIATION...SCHULTZ  
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