071
FXUS63 KDVN 122328
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
528 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING COLDER THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATUES FOR
THE WEEKEND.
- VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A 30 TO 35 PERCENT PROBABILITY THAT WINDS
MAY GUST UP TO 40 MPH.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLY
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK. HOWEVER, RIGHT NOW THERE IS A
20 TO 40 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF SEEING AN INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
QUIET AND UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA.
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 40S ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. AREAS SOUTH
OF I-80 HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT OCCURS ON TUESDAY HAS EXTREMELY WEAK
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND LIMITED MOISTURE. OUTSIDE OF SOME
SPRINKLES AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS, 90 PERCENT
OF THE AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (60-80%) CONFIDENCE OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS AND
TURNING COLDER WEDNESDAY. LOW (<20%) CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
THE SECOND AND STRONGER FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE FRONT IS STRONGER THAN THE DAYTIME TUESDAY FRONT,
MOISTURE IS STILL QUITE LIMITED. THUS WHILE SOME ISOLATED RAIN AND
EVENTUALLY SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY,
THE MORE PROBABLE SCENARIO IS SPRINKLES/FLURRIES.
THE MORE IMPORTANT MESSAGE FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WIND. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND HIT THEIR PEAK DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. NBM PROBABILITIES PUT A 30 TO 35 PERCENT CHANCE
OF SEEING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME THE PROBABILITY OF WIND HEADLINES FOR WEDNESDAY IS 10 PERCENT
AT BEST.
SOME FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE COLD
ADVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING LATE. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE CLIPPER SYSTEM.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (70-90%) CONFIDENCE ON A CLIPPER SYSTEM. LOW
(<25%) CONFIDENCE ON TRACK AND OVERALL IMPACTS.
AS WAS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE
TRACK AND IMPACTS OF THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM UNTIL THE ENERGY THAT
DEVELOPS THE STORM COMES ONSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT AND IS SAMPLED BY THE
MORE DENSE LAND NETWORKS.
NEARLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE EPS/GEPS HAVE THE TRACK OF THE
LOW FROM MINNESOTA INTO WISCONSIN. THERE ARE ONLY 3-4 ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS THAT TAKE THE TRACK ACROSS THE AREA. ALL GEFS MEMBERS HAVE A
MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN TRACK. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS FAVOR A
NORTHERN TRACK AS WELL WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CMC WHICH FAVORS
ITS 3 SOUTHERN TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA.
WHERE THE MODELS DO AGREE IS THAT A MAJORITY OF ANY SNOW WILL COME
WITH THE LEAD WARM ADVECTION WING OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF-AIFS AND
AIGFS HAVE MOISTENED SLIGHTLY BUT STILL HAVE LIQUID QPF OF 0.10
INCHES OR LESS.
NBM PROBABILITIES FOR A DUSTING OF ACCUMULATION ARE HIGH (>70%) SO
MINIMALLY A DUSTING WILL BE SEEN. THE PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR
MORE OF SNOW ARE LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%). THUS THE OVERALL IMPACTS
FROM THIS EVENT LOOK TO BE MINOR.
LIGHT SNOW MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI. RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING.
THE MORE LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR SNOW WILL BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION. HERE
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCES RANGING FROM 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT FOR AREAS NORTH
OF I-80.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL BE INTERESTING. THERE WILL BE COLD
ADVECTION OCCURRING WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF A
NEARBY COLD CORE UPPER LOW. THUS SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR THAT WOULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED DUSTING OF
ACCUMULATION. RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCE.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>95%) OF MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS. LOW
(<20%) CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS,
I CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING FLURRIES OR
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. MONDAY GENERALLY LOOKS TO BE DRY.
GIVEN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%)
PROBABILITY THAT THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
IS NOT YET SHOWING THIS BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY CHANGE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES.
INTERESTINGLY, THE 12Z ECMWF DETERMINISTIC RUN HAS A NEW CLIPPER
SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY THAT WAS NOT THERE ON PREVIOUS RUNS. THE
GFS/CMC/ICON MODELS SHOW ONLY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE AREA. THE UKMET
MODEL DOES HAVE A CLIPPER SYSTEM BUT HAS IT PASSING WELL SOUTH OF
THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE MAIN
FOCUS WILL BE ON A PERIOD OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE TONIGHT
AS A 35-45 KNOT WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS, ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. PLENTY OF DRY AIR SHOULD HELP KEEP
LOW CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION AT BAY. THEN, GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS. GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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