140
FXUS63 KDVN 191902
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
202 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A COOLER THAN NORMAL SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE JUST BEFORE THE WEEKEND.
- A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMER THAN
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE OF A STORM SYSTEM. LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-40%) CONFIDENCE ON RAINFALL.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A STORM SYSTEM FORECAST TO IMPACT THE MIDWEST
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES. INTERESTINGLY,
MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TAKE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WHICH RAISES QUESTIONS REGARDING THE OVERALL
RAINFALL POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA.
THE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES RESULT IN AN OVERALL RISK FOR RAIN THAT POTENTIALLY COULD
START AS EARLY AS THURSDAY OR HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY. BASED ON THE
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PICTURE, THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS ARE
INDICATING VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS BEING THE MOST
LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR ANY RAIN TO OCCUR. HERE THE MODEL CONSENSUS
HAS A 60-70% CHANCE OF RAIN. RAIN WOULD THEN LINGER INTO FRIDAY
EVENING BEFORE ENDING.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE; SOME LOCATIONS WILL SEE
UNDER 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN WHILE SOME MAY SEE CLOSE TO AN INCH.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>95%) OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE MAINLY DRY ALTHOUGH A ROGUE DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
STARTING SUNDAY THE PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE NOTICEABLE AS
TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL AND ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
ALL MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ALONG THE EAST COAST
WHICH WILL PLACE THE MIDWEST IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HUMIDITY
LEVELS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH DEW POINTS RAISING INITIALLY
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S; TOLERABLE FOR ALL BUT THE MOST
SENSITIVE PEOPLE.
STARTING TUESDAY HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE AND
UNCOMFORTABLE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN MAINLY DIURNAL
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RIGHT NOW THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS RAIN CHANCES AT 15 TO 25 PERCENT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
COLD FRONT IS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI WITH MVFR CIGS ALL ACROSS
IOWA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 27 KNOTS WILL CREATE CONSIDERABLE LOW
LEVEL MECHANICAL TURBULENCE THROUGH SUNSET. VERY SHORT TERM
MODELS HAVE CIGS RAISING TO VFR TOO QUICKLY AND THE 18Z TAFS
DELAY THE ARRIVAL OF VFR UNTIL AFTER 00Z/20. AFTER 00Z/20 WIND
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AND BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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