353
FXUS63 KDVN 271119
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
619 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT WARM AFTERNOONS WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE FOR
MANY DAYS AHEAD.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS LIKELY DEVELOPING IN THE COMING WEEKS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN MN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SEEN NOT THAT FAR AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS NORTHERN
IA, WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DROPPING JUST SOUTH OF THE HWY 20
CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL IA. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS ACTIVITY IS RUNNING
INTO A LOT OF DRY AIR AND HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN. CLOSER TO HOME,
MILD TEMPERATURES WERE OBSERVED WITH 1AM TEMPS IN THE 60S.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH 5AM AS UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE DECREASES AND THEY RUN INTO DRIER AIR ACROSS THE
CWA. SOME SPRINKLES OR AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY STILL REACH THE
FAR NORTHWEST CORNERS OF BUCHANAN COUNTY, BUT WILL LIKELY JUST
BE VIRGA. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
TODAY LEADING TO SIMILAR HIGHS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY IN THE
UPPER 80S. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, DEEP MIXING UP TO 700MB, AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER 850MB TEMPS MAY BOOST A FEW SITES (MLI) TO OUR
1ST 90 DEGREE DAY OF THE SEASON. THE LAST TIME WE HIT 90 IN THE
QUAD CITIES WAS BACK ON OCT 3RD.
TONIGHT...A BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT, AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. EVEN DRIER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE
40S. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID 50S
NORTHEAST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
CONTINUED DRY AND WARM FOR THE REST OF MAY AND INTO THE 1ST WEEK OF
JUNE. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WPC 7 DAY QPF CONTINUES TO SHOW ZERO PRECIPITATION FOR THE
CWA.
A 1024MB SURFACE HIGH DROPS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH
FRIDAY, REINFORCING OUR DRY AIR MASS OVERHEAD. AS THE PREVIOUS SHIFT
MENTIONED, THIS WILL YIELD HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30% FOR MOST
AFTERNOONS IN THE DAYS AHEAD. WITH THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, THIS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUR DAILY DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. AT LEAST
WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/50S IT WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE
PLEASANT OUTSIDE!
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHEN DOES THIS OMEGA BLOCK BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN? LATEST ENSEMBLES HAVE THIS PATTERN BECOMING FIRMLY
ESTABLISHED THIS WEEKEND AND PERSISTING IT THROUGH AT LEAST JUNE
2ND. THEN THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO TRANSITION THE UPPER FLOW TO A
BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE CONUS, WHICH IS NOT IDEAL FOR ANY
BENEFICIAL RAIN. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP/EXPAND
OVER THE COMING WEEKS. IN ADDITION, THE LATEST 6-10 AND 8-14
DAY PRECIP OUTLOOKS FOR THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER HAVE
70-80% COMBINED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR/BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
GOING THROUGH THE 1ST WEEK OF JUNE. NEEDLESS TO SAY, IT WILL BE
A WHILE BEFORE LIQUID GOLD (RAIN) COMES BACK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IDEAL
FLYING CONDITIONS TODAY AS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PICK UP
ONLY EVER SO SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHEAST,
REMAINING AROUND 5 KNOTS. SOME DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE NEAR CID, DBQ, AND MLI, WITH CEILINGS AROUND 5KFT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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