898
FXUS63 KDVN 241134
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY.
- ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
- FLOODING CONTINUES ON AREA RIVERS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECAY AND PUSH EASTWARD
THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN FALLING ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA, FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI,AND ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THESE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS BY 9 AM,
EASTERN IOWA, NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI ARE
FORECAST TO SIT ON THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW
THAT WILL SIT OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA THROUGH SATURDAY.
ANY DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THIS CLOSED LOW ARE FORECAST TO
STAY FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND A FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL
WHEN NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
ON SUNDAY, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CLOSED LOW TO
OUR NORTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE DAY
AS RIDGING CENTERED OVER INDIANA BUILDS AND EXPANDS ACROSS THE
REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
500 MB TROUGH AND IT'S ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW LIFT FROM
COLORADO/KANSAS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES BY 12 UTC TUESDAY.
CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS DEPICT THIS TROUGH AS NEGATIVELY
TILTED AS IT ARRIVES INTO THE PLAINS WITH THE CURRENT TIMING
ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING. .
THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH, SURFACE LOW AND FRONT ON MONDAY WILL
BE IMPORTANT FOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL AS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW VARYING CAPE
DEPENDING ON TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE REGION
AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE JET STREAM OVERSPREADS THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING PEAK HEATING. THE
STORM PREDICTION HAS A 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY WITH 30% CHANCE TO OUR SOUTH. STAY TUNED
TO THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.
THIS TROUGH IS ABSORBED INTO A DEEP TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW THAT
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN US TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH THE AREA ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS DRY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW PRESENT IN MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS BRINGING A RETURN TO CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION TO END THE PERIOD WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE END OF APRIL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND LOWS
IN THE 40S.
&
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
A LINE OF DECAYING SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS KMLI AND KBRL TO
START THE TAF PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50
KNOTS IS POSSIBLE AT BOTH LOCATIONS THROUGH 7 UTC WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER THAT. SHOWERS WILL EXIT ALL TAF SITES BY
08 UTC. MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST INTENSE
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST AFTER 12 UTC ON FRIDAY AND SWITCH THE WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25
KNOTS ESPECIALLY AT KDBQ AND KCID. WINDS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR
AFTER 12 UTC.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL KEEP SOME LOW
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA BETWEEN 12-15Z, SCATTERING/LIFTING AROUND
15Z AND BEYOND. WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING BROKEN-OVERCAST CIGS
BETWEEN 1000-1500 FT, WITH SOME BRIEF BOUTS OF CLOUDS <1000 FT,
LARGELY AT BRL. 15Z AND BEYOND, WE WILL BE LEFT WITH DECREASING
CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO EAST AND NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 10-15
KTS. AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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