757
FXUS63 KDVN 210507
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1107 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH ANOTHER BOUT
OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SOME SLICK SPOTS MAY BE SEEN TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW FREEZING.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. GUSTS
UPWARDS TO 30-40 MPH OR MORE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE REGION GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH A BRIEF WARM UP INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING AGAIN FROM THERE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
TONIGHT...WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING
AND INTO THE NIGHT, DEPLETING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL DECREASE AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, BUT
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING MAY ALLOW FOR SOME SLICK SPOTS TO
DEVELOP ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THUS, IT WILL BE BEST TO BE CAUTIOUS
WHEN TRAVELING THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT. WINDS WON'T HELP
MUCH, AS WE ARE EXPECTING THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THEY WERE
THROUGH THE DAY, BUT WE ARE STILL EXPECTING GUSTS UPWARDS TO 30-35
MPH AT TIMES. AS WE APPROACH DAWN, WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP UNDER
AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WE ARE EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S THROUGHOUT THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS
IN THE TEENS MOVING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THURSDAY... WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE NEWLY DEVELOPED
SURFACE LOW OVER LAKE MICHIGAN, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY
STRONG. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS THE SURFACE LOW DROPPING TO NEAR 995
HPA ALONG THE WESTERN COAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
BRING THE PRECIPITATION BACK TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA, BUT THIS WILL GREATLY ENHANCE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR
EASTERN HALF. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE THE WINDY DAY, WITH STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS FORECAST. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE WINDS BETWEEN 20-
30 MPH, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS TO 40 MPH. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE WINDS ON THE
HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE. COMPARING TO OLDER RUNS IN GUIDANCE, THESE WINDS HAVE
GONE UP QUITE A BIT. SO, THIS UPWARD TREND IN WINDS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH, AS WIND HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE THAT COMFORTABLE
EITHER, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA HOVERING AROUND 40. THUS, WITH
WINDS THAT STRONG, WE WILL SEE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS THE MID 20S
AT TIMES. SO, UNFORTUNATELY, WE ARE LOOKING AT QUITE THE
UNPLEASANT DAY TOMORROW. BUNDLE UP AND PREPARE FOR THE COLD, AS
WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
FRIDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL HAVE SINCE MOVED EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, WITH THE NEWLY DEVELOPED SURFACE LOW PUSHING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA BY SUNRISE. BITS OF ENERGY GYRATING AROUND THE LARGE UPPER
LOW MAY STILL RESULT IN RESIDUAL DRIZZLE/FLURRIES EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER, DIMINISHING BY MID-MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE PRECIPITATION LASTING THIS LONG. BEHIND THE UPPER LOW, WE WILL
BE LEFT UNDER WEAK RIDGING TO NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND AND START OF THE WEEK. THUS, WE ARE LOOKING TOWARDS
A RELATIVELY QUIET WEEKEND, WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE
WAVE DISCUSSED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FOR MONDAY HAS
SINCE DECREASED IN INTENSITY AND PULLED NORTH OF THE AREA,
RESULTING IS A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE START OF THE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH, WE WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS WAVE ON
SUNDAY, MAKING SUNDAY A MILD AND CLOUDY DAY. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOW 50S. WITH SUCH DRY
AIR IN PLACE, THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE
NORTH WILL LIKELY PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY AS A DRY FRONT
NOW.
WE WILL REMAIN QUIET GOING TOWARDS MIDWEEK, BUT WE DO SEE A BIT OF A
PATTERN CHANGE MIDWEEK AND BEYOND. KEEP IN MIND, MUCH CAN CHANGE
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN, BUT THE PATTERN DOES LOOK TO TREND MORE ACTIVE
FOR THE REGION. WHILE ALL OVER THE PLACE, GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE
QUITE THE WAVE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WAVE WOULD
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE PRECIPITATION, BUT AT THE MOMENT, IT IS
TOO SOON TO SAY. THUS, IT IS BEST TO JUST KNOW THAT WE DO HAVE
OUR EYES ON SOME POTENTIAL SYSTEMS OUT THERE, BUT IMPACTS TO OUR
AREA REMAIN UNKNOWN. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE AS
WE GET CLOSER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA TAF SITES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF KBRL. THE FORECAST HAS EXTENDED TEMPO GROUPS
AT KDBQ, KDBQ, AND KMLI TO ACCOUT FOR SNOW EXTENDING
NORTHWESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESAOTA THROUGH 09/10 UTC.
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AT
EACH TAF SITES WITH SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS
WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT DBQ DURING
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 15 UTC AT ALL TAF
SITES WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER 00 UTC FRIDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...COUSINS/SCHULTZ
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