106
FXUS63 KDVN 092331
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
531 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..00Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINING IN THE 40S THROUGH THE DAYS
AND MID 20S TO LOW 30S AT NIGHT.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH INCREASING CHANCES THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK AND BEYOND.
- EXTENDED FORECASTS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND PRECIPITATION INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY,
WHERE WE SAW MODEST LLVL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. WARM ADVECTION
HAS RESULTED, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S IN OUR
NORTHEAST TO 50S IN OUR SOUTHWEST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, WHICH WILL CONTINUE AGAIN TOMORROW. BY NOON TODAY,
MANY IN THE AREA WERE ALREADY NEAR/OVER 40. MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED IN THE LLVLS, WITH BETTER FORCING WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. THUS, WE WILL REMAIN DRY AS THIS WAVE/FRONT PASSES.
ALTHOUGH, WE WILL SEE PASSING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE
NIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY. WITH THAT, ALONG WITH
SOME CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP OFF TOO
MUCH TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE MID 30S
TONIGHT, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. TO PUT THIS INTO
PERSPECTIVE, THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST TONIGHT ARE
ACTUALLY NEAR/ABOVE OUR NORMAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR!
COOL AND DRY ADVECTION WILL KICK IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM AND LAST
THROUGH TUESDAY, ALLOWING THE THERMAL RIDGING TO WEAKEN AND
RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. WITH THAT SAID, WE ARE
STILL FORECASTING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MUCH OF THE
AREA IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE WITH THE
INCREASED SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, KEEPING A LITTLE CHILL
IN THE AIR. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME PASSING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY, BUT WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
WEDNESDAY IS FORECAST TO BE A QUIET WEATHER DAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS LATE IN THE EVENING HOURS AND BEYOND.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD, WITH MID 40S REMAINING
ON FORECAST AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE MID-UPPER 20S. SOME IN OUR SOUTH WILL BE AROUND
30, WHICH IS UNSEASONABLY MILD FOR A MID-FEBRUARY NIGHT.
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE. EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL BE BOUTS OF
VORTICITY THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION, WHICH IS
HIGHLIGHTED WELL AMONGST GUIDANCE. THESE WAVES WILL HOLD THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA IF WE MANAGE TO GET
SOME MOISTURE AHEAD OF THEM. THE FIRST WAVE TO PASS THROUGH THE
AREA WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A CLIPPER SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA, WHERE WE SEE OUR FIRST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE REMAINS QUESTIONABLE, LIMITING
CONFIDENCE ON QPF. ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF GUIDANCE AT LEAST BRINGS IN
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THE 12Z NAM HAS COME IN WITH MORE QPF THAN THE
GLOBAL MODELS, WHICH LEADS TO A FORECAST CHALLENGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BORDERLINE, MAKING PRECIPITATION TYPE A QUESTION.
ALTHOUGH, MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
INDICATE TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR SNOW, WITH THOSE
SOUTH OF THAT AREA POTENTIALLY SEEING A MIX OR RAIN (IF THEY
SATURATE). LATEST NBM COMES IN WITH THE HIGHER POPS PULLED
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, WHICH
GENERALLY FOLLOWS OUR TRAIN OF THOUGHT. OTHERWISE, WITH
UNCERTAINTY ON MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, WILL REFRAIN FROM FURTHER
DETAILS REGARDING ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. AS OF RIGHT NOW, IT
IS BEST TO KNOW THAT WE WILL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
THAT DAY, WITH SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH, BUT UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS ON FURTHER DETAILS.
OUR NEXT CHANCE WILL BE WITH A STRONG WAVE THIS WEEKEND, WHICH IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO EJECT OFF OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND TREK
EAST-NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN SHOWN
BY LONG TERM GUIDANCE FOR A FEW DAYS NOW, BUT ALTER GREATLY FROM
RUN TO RUN. WITH THAT SAID, THIS SYSTEM STILL EXISTS IN
GUIDANCE, BUT DETERMINISTIC RUNS KEEP THIS SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE
AREA (DRY FORECAST LOCALLY). ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES PULL THE
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH, INTRODUCING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS CURRENTLY REFLECTED WITH THE
NBM POPS, WHICH WE WILL HOLD ONTO AT THIS POINT UNTIL CONFIDENCE
INCREASES ON AN OUTCOME (WET OR DRY). STAY TUNED ON THE
FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND, AS A NORTHERLY TREND IN THIS SYSTEM
WOULD INTRODUCE MORE POPS TO THE AREA, WHICH COULD BE IN THE
FORM OF WINTRY WEATHER. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY
REMAIN IN THE LOW-MID 40S THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND, WITH CPC
CONTINUING TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST MON FEB 9 2026
GENERALLY A VFR TAF CYCLE WITH SFC TO LLVL WINDS BEING THE MAIN
FCST FACTORS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY SFC WINDS WILL BE IN THE
10-15 KT RANGE UNTIL THEY WEAKEN SOME AND START TO VEER TOWARD
MORNING TIME WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE SWEEPING IN ACRS THE AREA.
WILL KEEP THE LLVL WIND SHEAR GOING FOR MUCH OF THIS EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 2K FT AGL RANGE
FROM 35-45+ KTS. BEHIND THE FROPA, NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 28 KTS ON TUESDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GUNKEL
LONG TERM...GUNKEL
AVIATION...12
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