096
FXUS63 KDVN 111758
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1158 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR EASTERN IOWA, FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI, AS WELL AS
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BUCHANAN COUNTY. A
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAR NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS.
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT A IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW TO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL
RATES ARE FORECAST TO FALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2025
LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
30 OR ALONG A LINE FROM CEDAR RAPIDS TO CLINTON TO STERLING
ROCKFALLS. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF AN INCH OR LESS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE WHEN THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
TAPER OFF.
FOR TUESDAY, QUIET WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO OUR NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY WITH A NORTH WIND OF 5 TO
10 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NORTHWEST OF A VINTON TO MANCHESTER
LINE TO AROUND 30 DEGREES IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A IMPACTFUL
WINTER STORM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT 00Z WEDNESDAY A POSITIVELY TILTED 500 MB
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS UTAH AND LIFT INTO MINNESOTA BY 12 UTC
ON THURSDAY. OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD, A SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM WEST TEXAS EAST NORTHEASTWARD AND INTO
MICHIGAN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. PVA WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
BY 12 UTC ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA AND OVERSPREADING THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. HREF
PROBABILITY OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES
INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SHOWS
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A NUMBERS DECREASING AS YOU GO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
20 DEGREES NORTHWEST OF A CEDAR RAPIDS TO DUBUQUE LINE TO THE
UPPER 20S IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
SNOW IS FORECAST TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER
9 PM WITH SNOW SNOW LINGERING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PART OF THE
CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MORNING MAY
BE VERY COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WIND
CHILL VALUES ON THURSDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO WITH A FEW SPOTS AS LOW AS -10 TO -15.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2025
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...BROAD RIDGING ALOFT AND A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
TO BRING COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE FRESH
SNOWPACK. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS,
BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE TEENS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. SUB-ZERO LOWS ALSO ARE FORECAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY WILL START THE
SLOW "WARM-UP" AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 20S.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS WITH CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES.
AS EXPECTED THIS FAR OUT, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN
SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE TRACK, TIMING, AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH
THIS SYSTEM. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA.
ANOTHER THING THAT MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON WITH THIS SYSTEM IS IT
WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT-EARLY
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, NBM PROBABILITIES OF 6" OR MORE IS IN THE 20-
40% RANGE.
SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...MUCH COLDER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. 850MB TEMPS PROGGED IN THE -18C TO -22C RANGE OVER A
SNOWPACK MAY BRING SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS AND SUB ZERO LOWS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. SNOW AND COLD LOVERS REJOICE WHILE EVERYONE ELSE...BRRR!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST TUE FEB 11 2025
VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VIS AND SNOW TO THE AREA BEGINNING BY
07Z/12, LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW
SHOULD OCCUR BEYOND THIS TAF CYCLE (WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING) WHEN MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF AT LEAST AN INCH PER HOUR. SNOWFALL TOTALS
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 5-8 INCH RANGE FROM THIS EVENT.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR IAZ040.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR IAZ041-042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR ILZ009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ILZ001-002-007.
MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM CST THURSDAY
FOR MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS/GROSS
AVIATION...HAASE
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