644
FXUS63 KDVN 090411
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1111 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND AND LINGERING THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS THE AREA
TRANSITIONS INTO BEING UNDER A RIDGE. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND
SUSTAINED NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH, CONDITIONS ARE GOOD FOR
DEEPER MIXING TO OCCUR, WHICH COULD LOWER DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AS A RESULT. THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AND PAIRED WITH THE LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS, TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL GET DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THERE IS SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FROST CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNRISE FOR THESE AREAS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT MORE WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS THAT INCLUDES STEPHENSON COUNTY
AND AS A RESULT, A FROST ADVISORY IS NOW IN PLACE BETWEEN 06Z
AND 13Z FRIDAY MORNING. HEADING INTO FRIDAY, WE SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES,
AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WILL MAKE FRIDAY A BEAUTIFUL DAY
TO END THE WORK WEEK!
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE AREA INTO AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY TO TUESDAY ARE RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NBM RUNS, CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING THAT HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA REACH ABOVE 80 DEGREES. THE
LATEST 07Z NBM DATA HAS BETWEEN A 50 AND 70% CHANCE THAT HIGHS REACH
ABOVE 80 DEGREES FROM SATURDAY TO MONDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
PROBABILITIES FOR TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON TUESDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMES UP FROM THE NORTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. AS IT DOES, A WAVE OF ENERGY FROM THIS LOW PROGRESSES
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGIONS.
ENSEMBLE DATA ALSO SUPPORTS THIS AS AROUND 50% OF ALL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAVE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY. CURRENT NBM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE POPS AS IT NOW SHOWS A 20 TO 30% POP
FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
ANOTHER PRECIPITATION CHANCE ARRIVES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A LOW
TREKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOW, AROUND 20%, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ALREADY HONING IN ON
A LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL US BY THURSDAY AND SHIFTING EASTWARD
BY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS
INCREASING AS MANY MEMBERS OF THE EPS AND GEFS HAVE MEASURABLE RAIN
AFTER NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
FANTASTIC CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR AVIATORS DURING THE PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND UNLIMITED CEILINGS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR ILZ002.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CECAVA
LONG TERM...CECAVA
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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