286
FXUS63 KDVN 102327
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
627 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR OR
MORE, AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALONG WITH DRY AIR.
- AN ACTIVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FRIDAY NIGHT & SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SECOND
SYSTEM LATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
CLOUD COVER HELD TIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING, ALONG WITH SOUTHERN
SHOWERS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A LATER WAVE OF RAIN/THUNDER MOVING
THROUGH MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS, WHERE THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE
BOUNDARY REMAINS. THE EXACT SURFACE FRONT, WITH A SIGNIFICANT DROP
IN DEW POINT VALUES IS LOCATED IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM THERE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WITH CLOUDS LINGERING THERE, THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, MLCAPE OF 100-200 SEEN ON SPC MESO DATA.
WE DID GET A TINY FUNNEL CLOUD REPORT NEAR MONMOUTH EARLIER, BUT
SPC IS NOT SHOWING MUCH INDICATION FOR NST ACTIVITY RIGHT NOW.
THUS, TONIGHT WILL SEE DRY AIR FURTHER PUSH INTO THE REGION, WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. I CAN'T RULE OUT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS,
BUT THAT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND FAR SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS TONIGHT WITH THE NORTH COOLING OFF TO THE MID 50S, AND
SOUTH TO THE LOWER 60S. A VERY PLEASANT NIGHT INDEED!
FRIDAY LOOKS TO CONTINUE THAT TREND, WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. FRIDAY EVENING
APPEARS QUIET, THOUGH WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND
MIDNIGHT. THIS PROCESS REMAINS VERY INCONSISTENTLY PLACED IN
DETERMINISTIC MODEL DATA, WITH SOME CAMS SHOWING A CLUSTER OF STORMS
IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING.
AT THIS POINT, FORECAST POPS REMAIN LOW, BUT SOME WAA STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE BOTH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, AND POTENTIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY IN OUR WEST AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
SATURDAY, MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WANE, AND DROP SOUTH OF
THE AREA, WITH MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND EVENING RATHER
QUIET, BEFORE MORE STORMS POTENTIALLY MOVE IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT
OURS. AGAIN, DETERMINISTIC CAMS ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE ON TIMING AND
LOCATION, BUT ALL MODELS SHOW OUR AREA AT THE NORTH PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD WARM, HUMID HIGH PRESSURE, AND THAT SUPPORTS STRONG MUCAPE AND
THE INCREASING FLOW ALOFT (MAINLY SW FLOW) SUPPORTS SOME DEEP LAYER
SHEAR GROWING THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD. SPC CONTINUES A LEVEL 1
RISK FOR OUR EXTREME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT, LEVEL
2 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES MONDAY.
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW APPEARS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK
BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE COULD OCCUR, WITH A LARGER UPPER LOW
BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG ZONAL FLOW. THAT LOW IS FORECAST
TO BE IN THE PAC-NORTHWEST US, BEFORE EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
AN OPEN WAVE LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 557 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE TAF
PERIOD. MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE WITH THE FOG POTENTIAL,
LARGELY IN OUR SOUTH, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING BRL. CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME, PROMPTING A 5 SM AND MIST AT 09Z AND BEYOND.
WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE,
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT, INCREASING
OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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