754
FXUS63 KDVN 172324
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
624 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, THOUGH LIKELY MORE PATCHY AND FAVORED
ACROSS SOUTH/EAST SECTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA AS WELL AS ANY POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
- A WARM-UP NEXT WEEK WILL SEND TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
IT WAS A CHILLY START THIS MORNING WITH MANY AREAS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30S. THE COLDEST READINGS (JUST BELOW FREEZING/32F) WERE FOUND
NORTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HWY 30 WHERE FROST WAS WIDESPREAD.
WE ARE MOST LIKELY DONE WITH FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES ALONG/NORTH OF
HWY 30 GIVEN THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND BEING A WEEK PAST
AVERAGE DATE OF FIRST FREEZE, WHILE HEADLINES MAY CONTINUE ELSEWHERE
ALTHOUGH WE'LL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE AND MAKE AN OFFICIAL DETERMINATION
BY MONDAY. THE DRY AIR HAS WARMED UP NICELY WITH THE FULL SUNSHINE AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE RECOVERED INTO THE MID 50S AT MID AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS RESULTING IN LOWS TONIGHT BEING NOT QUITE AS COLD
AS THIS MORNING FOR MANY. STILL, ACROSS OUR SOUTH/EAST PORTIONS OF
THE SERVICE AREA AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS ELSEWHERE, THE
COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 30S AND PATCHY TO PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF FROST.
MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA WITH THE
MORE PREVALENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER SSW
FLOW LOWS LOOK TO BE AROUND 40.
GOING INTO SUNDAY A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP ACROSS OUR AREA USHERING IN WARMER AIR WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT LARGELY IN THE MID 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 60S POSSIBLE. SSW WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY AT 15-30 MPH. IF DEW POINTS AND RH TREND LOWER THEN WE
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
FOLLOWING WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS PLEASANT,
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REIGN THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
MIGRATES FROM THE CENTRAL US TO OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MIDLEVEL
FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY, PROVIDING WAA THAT WILL LEAD TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. A FEW SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AND BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION,
THOUGH DRY LOW LEVELS WILL KEEP US FREE FROM ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. COUPLE OF THINGS TO WATCH FOR ARE
1) TEMPERATURES BEING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST DURING THE
DAY AND COOLER AT NIGHT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR FAVORABLE FOR
BURGEONING DIURNAL RANGES, AND 2) POTENTIAL FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS GIVEN THE DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES DURING
ANY WINDIER PERIODS. RIGHT NOW THOUGH, IT APPEARS BEING MORE
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SURFACE RIDGING THAT THE STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL BE FAVORED TO OUR WEST, UNTIL LATE WEEK.
BEYOND 7 DAYS...
RECURVING TYPHOONS IN WESTERN PACIFIC OFTEN PORTEND A CENTRAL/EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH IN ABOUT 6-14 DAYS (BUCKLING OF JET ORIENTATION OVER
THE NORTH PACIFIC WHICH CAN PUMP UP THE RIDGE INTO ALASKA AND THE
WESTERN CONUS IN TURNING FOSTERING AN EASTERN TROUGH), AND PROBABLY
CLOSER TO 14 DAYS IN THIS CASE WITH TYPHOON CHAMPI RECURVING FURTHER
WEST TOWARDS CHINA. SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR A PATTERN CHANGE TO
COLDER AND POTENTIALLY A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED/WET WEATHER. LATEST
CPC 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS OCT 24-30 LEAN ABOVE NORMAL ON PRECIPITATION
AND LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGH AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF
THE PERIOD IS WHEN WE MAY SEE THE EVOLUTION TOWARD MORE TROUGHING AND
COLDER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
CONSISTENTLY VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 24 HOURS AND
BEYOND AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION, BUT
CONTINUES TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
WILL BE A BIT GUSTY FROM MID MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE QUAD CITIES, WHERE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS. FARTHER SOUTHEAST, WINDS WILL BE A BIT WEAKER, WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS EXPECTED AROUND MLI AND BRL.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH/MCCLURE
AVIATION...ERVIN
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