017
FXUS63 KDVN 242312
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
612 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) OF RAIN REMAINS IN THE PICTURE
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE BETTER SIGNAL
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM BEING STILL LARGELY
GOVERNED BY A LARGE EXPANSE OF GREAT LAKES RIDGING AND
DRY EASTERLY FLOW. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/
HIGH CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT TO A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND
ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION. THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY ALSO
BRING SOME RETURNS ON RADAR, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER PARCHED WITH AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OFF
THE GREAT LAKES HIGH. AS A RESULT, ANTICIPATE MAINLY VIRGA,
WITH SOME SPRINKLES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PARTICULARLY ACROSS
OUR FAR WEST/SOUTH.
LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH SOME
FROST MAINLY N/E OF QUAD CITIES /WHERE CLOUDS THINNER AND LIGHT
WINDS TO ALLOW FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING/ TO THE MID/UPPER
40S FAR S/W WHERE MORE OPAQUE CLOUDINESS AND A BIT STRONGER E/SE
WINDS.
ON A SIDE NOTE, BETWEEN THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS MORNING MOST
OF THE AREA HAS SEEN A FREEZE. AS A RESULT, THIS WILL LIKELY
MEAN THE END OF THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AND ANY MENTION OF
FROST IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE
TO APPROACH THE REGION, MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY WEEKEND. THE NBM
CONTINUES TO HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND 20-40% FOR THE
WEEKEND, WITH MINIMAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THANKS TO LINGERING DRY AIR
IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE LATEST LREF ENSEMBLE EXCEEDANCE
PROBABILITIES OF TOTAL RAINFALL OF 0.1 INCHES OR GREATER HAVE
DROPPED TO GENERALLY 20-40% THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND (HIGHEST
CHANCES ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH), SO NOT A GREAT SIGNAL FOR A WETTING
RAINFALL. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY HELD INTO THE 50S AND
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST NEAR 60 TO THE LOWER 60S BUT IF CLOUDS ARE
MORE OPAQUE WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT EASTERLY WIND COULD BE LIMITED
TO THE 50S FOR SOME.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT
ACTIVE AS A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.
THIS SHOULD HELP BUILD A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CONUS, ALTHOUGH LREF ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS VARIOUS
SPATIAL SOLUTIONS TO THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH, WITH SOME ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS PLACING IT OVER OUR REGION AND OTHERS FARTHER EAST. IF THE
TROUGH IS MORE OVER OUR REGION, WE WOULD SEE HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, BUT IF THE TROUGH IS MORE TO THE EAST, THEN WE WILL LIKELY
SEE LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS. GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES, UNCERTAIN
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH FOR HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE, AND THE LREF
PROBABILITIES OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR GREATER OF TOTAL RAINFALL
DOESN'T PROVIDE MUCH CLARITY, WITH VALUES AROUND 40 TO 70 PERCENT
(HIGHEST TO THE WEST) FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY, DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH SHUNTS OFF TO THE EAST. THE NBM DOESN'T HAVE MUCH
FOR POPS DURING THIS PERIOD, WHICH SUGGESTS THE GEFS AND ECMWF
ENSEMBLES ARE SIMILAR TO THEIR DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS, WHICH
KEEP CONDITIONS LARGELY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD. AGAIN, MUCH WILL DEPEND
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MONDAY/TUESDAY LONGWAVE TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S/NEAR 60 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR SHOULD
LIMIT ANY WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY VIRGA WITH
SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH NO IMPACTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE E/SE THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THEN BECOME
SUSTAINED FROM S/SE AROUND 10 KT ON SATURDAY WITH SPORADIC GUSTS
14-20 KT BY AFTERNOON.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE/SCHULTZ
AVIATION...ERVIN/MCCLURE
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