217
FXUS63 KDVN 051141
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
641 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR BOTH SEVERE
WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WITH A MORE FAVORED AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
- AFTER POSSIBLE SCATTERED STORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT,
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THAT COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH SKIES
CLEARING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL ALLOW HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL ALLOW HEAT AND INSTABILITY TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. HREF MEAN CAPE BY EARLY EVENING RANGES
FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30 TO 35 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER ANY SCATTERED STORMS WILL
DEVELOP IN THIS TIME PERIOD. IF STORMS WERE TO DEVELOP, THE
MAIN THREATS FROM THIS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND A SECONDARY THREAT
OF DAMAGING WINDS.
THE BETTER FORCING OVERSPREADS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORM ACTIVITY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 OVERNIGHT. THIS IS THE PRIMARY TIME FOR THE
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. SCATTERED SURGES OF WIND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOIST/PRECIP-LOADING ENVIRONMENT. IN ADDITION TO THE SCATTERED
SEVERE THREAT, HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PWATS IN
THE >1.25 INCHES WITH HREF PROBABILITY MATCH MEAN VALUES OF QPF
NEAR 2.00 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST IOWA. TOTALS THIS HIGH WOULD BE
FAVORED IF AN AREA SEES REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA, RAIN
MAY INITIALLY SIT ON THE SURFACE BEFORE SLOWLY BEING ABSORBED
INTO THE GROUND. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) ALSO HAS A
SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA FOR TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BREAKS DOWN QUICKLY ON SATURDAY AS 500 MB
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, PARTLY MODULATED BY OUTFLOW
FROM TONIGHT'S STORMS, WILL REMAIN NEAR THE INTERSTATE 80
CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY. IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID ON SATURDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WILL ALLOW CAPE TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND ISOLATED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE INSTABILITY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE ON DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT THAT HIGH AT THIS TIME.
500 MB HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ACROSS IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
LIFTING FROM THE RIO GRAND VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD FOR CLOUD
COVER SPREADING INTO THE AREA AND SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FAVORED TO BE IN THE MID 80S.
LIFT BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RECHARGE ACROSS THE AREA TO AROUND 2 INCHES SO HEAVY RAINFALL
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE TIMING FOR THIS WAVE MAY CHANGE AS
THIS IS A CLOSED LOW LIFTING INTO THE AREA AND THOSE CAN BE
SLOWER. SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER INTO MONDAY AND THIS HAS
RESULTED IN LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES THEN AS WELL.
TUESDAY ONWARD, AN OMEGA BLOCK REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS AS
500 MB RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE A
CLOSED LOW SITS OFF OF THE EAST COAST AND ANOTHER IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE IS SPRAWLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
US WITH THE GULF OPEN TO PULL MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND INTO THE
AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
CLIMB TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
INTO THE MID 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. NO MATTER THE
SPECIFIC VALUES, IT LOOKS LIKE THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
PRIMARY CONCERNS FOR AVIATORS ON THIS FRIDAY ARE SCATTERED
STORMS THIS MORNING, MVFR AND PATCHY IFR CEILINGS MID-LATE
MORNING, AND STORMS TONIGHT.
AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (30 PERCENT
COVERAGE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80) WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
EAST-NORTHEAST OVER/NEAR THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID-MORNING.
PRIOR TO THESE ENDING AND INTO THE COUPLE HOURS THAT FOLLOW,
LOW END MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS ARE ON THE TABLE.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THESE DEPARTING BY EARLY AFTERNOON, AND
ALSO IS HIGH THAT ANY SHOWER OR STORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE ISOLATED (<30 PERCENT).
REDEVELOPING STORMS ARE LIKELY MID-LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON SPECIFICS OF THAT. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR
SOME AIRPORTS TO SEE MORE THAN TWO CONSECUTIVE HOURS WITH STORMS
DUE TO SLOW-MOVEMENT / TRAINING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...FRIEDLEIN
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