645
FXUS63 KDVN 130714
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
214 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY, BREEZY WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE TODAY.
- ELEVATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AM,
WITH A MARGINAL, LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
FORECAST BY THE SPC.
- STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND AND BEYOND, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR STORMS. THE
SPC CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED OUR AREA IN A 15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, OR LEVEL 2/5 RISK, SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL CONFIDENTLY SEE SUNNY SKIES TODAY, ALONG WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH, GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 MPH.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT, IS DRAWING SOME MOISTURE SOUTHWARD OVER
WISCONSIN THIS MORNING, AND THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT THAT THIS WILL
BRUSH THROUGH OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES (EAST OF DUBUQUE TO
STERLING IL) WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE TODAY,
POTENTIALLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS HAS ME GOING TOWARDS
COOLER GUIDANCE IN THE EAST, AND NEAR THE NBM MEAN IN THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CWA, WERE SUN IS FORECAST. THIS MORE OR LESS WORKS OUT
TO MID 60S EAST TO LOWER 70S CENTRAL AND WEST TODAY. WITH WINDS
GENERALLY UNDER 15 MPH EARLY TODAY, I DON'T EXPECT ANY LOFTED DUST
TO IMPACT OUR AREA AND THIS BREEZY DAY AHEAD SHOULD NOT REACH LEVELS
TO CREATE ANOTHER EVENT UPSTREAM.
TONIGHT, NEAR CALM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH LOWS NEAR 40 EAST TO
MID 40S CENTRAL AND WEST.
THURSDAY WILL SEE THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, AND A
NOTABLE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD IN FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY. FOR MOST, THIS WILL STILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST TO UPPER 70S WEST. ANY THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY, STRONG WAA IS FORECAST TO SPREAD
OVER THE REGION, WITH INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO IOWA AND
MISSOURI DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS, LIKELY RESULTING IN A
STRONG AREA OF STORMS TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EAST, POTENTIALLY INTO SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT, WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND PWAT
VALUES OVER 1.25 (UP TO 1.65" IS FORECAST BY SOME MODEL DATA). POPS
ARE 60 TO 80% OVER THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA, (HIGHEST SOUTH),
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A THUNDERSTORM TRACK OF THE MAIN STORMS OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI TOWARDS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. RAINFALL COULD BE OVER
0.5 IN THAT EVENT ALONE GIVEN THE MOISTURE, BUT THE POTENTIAL ALSO
EXISTS THAT MUCH OF THAT EVENT FALLS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
TOO.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 210 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA
FRIDAY MORNING, THEN WE WILL BE LEFT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, AS MAINLY SUPPORTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC EC
CONSISTENTLY, AS WELL ENTER A BUSY SEVERAL DAYS OF THE FORECAST
INTO THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE ACTIVE THROUGHOUT THE
REGION. A TROF WILL DIG IN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, DEEPENING
OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL INDUCE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER
THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE THROUGHOUT. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW HIGH THE TEMPERATURES WILL GET THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME,
OWING TO CLOUD COVER DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE, ALONG WITH THE
NBM RUNNING HOT. IN EITHER CASE, WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND MOISTURE, INSTABILITY WILL BUILD THROUGHOUT. THUS, ALL THAT
IS NEEDED IS SOME FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP.
FORCING WILL ARRIVE TO THE AREA AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
EVENING/NIGHT, AS A BOUT OF VORTICITY PUSHES NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA WITH A PASSING WARM FRONT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. A
BRIEF LOOK AT AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WOULD INDICATE THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS POSING A HAIL THREAT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, LIGHTING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE A HAZARD THAT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE
CAMPING. MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND, THE PATTERN REMAINS THE SAME, WITH MORE BOUTS OF
VORTICITY SET TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA. THUS, CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED MUCH OF OUR AREA IN A
DAY 6 15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WHICH EQUATES TO A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE
COMING DAYS, ESPECIALLY AS MORE HI-RES GUIDANCE COMES IN. OVERALL,
THIS JUST INDICATES THAT SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WILL HAVE THE CHANCE TO
BE STRONG/SEVERE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL STALL OUT. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT
TO WATCH, AS WHEREVER THIS SETS UP CAN BE A FOCAL POINT FOR
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. IN ALL, HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE
ON THE TABLE DUE TO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH EACH WAVE
PASSING THROUGH. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT THIS ISN'T LOOKING
LIKE A COMPLETE WASHOUT AT THIS TIME, WITH SOME DRY TIME
FORECAST BETWEEN ROUNDS OF STORMS. CURRENT LOCATIONS THAT MAY
SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ALONG/NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WPC HAS A BROAD AREA OF 1.00-2.00"
OF RAIN FORECAST OVER THE AREA, WHERE MUCH OF THAT WILL FALL
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. KEEP IN MIND THAT MUCH CAN STILL
CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST. OTHERWISE, THIS WILL BE A WARM
STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD 80S POSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS
MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GET, AS NBM
CONTINUES TO COME IN MUCH WARMER THAN THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE
(BETWEEN THE 90-99TH PERCENTILE OF GUIDANCE). THE BULK OF
GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS US AROUND 80 DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY, BUT THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL SEE NORTHWEST WINDS
DECREASE ENOUGH THAT NO ADDITIONAL BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED, NOR
ANYTHING OTHER THAN A PLEASANT VFR NIGHT, AND DAY TOMORROW.
WINDS WILL GUST THROUGH THE MID DAY HOURS AGAIN, BUT THEN WILL
BACK OFF TO LIGHT NORTH WINDS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN/GUNKEL
AVIATION...ERVIN
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