891
FXUS63 KDVN 080514
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1114 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER RISK IN
THE AFTERNOON.
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
MOST LOCATIONS.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TUESDAY SOUTH OF I-80.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
THE STORMS THAT ROLLED THROUGH LATE EVENING AND EARLY THIS
MORNING BROUGHT MORE BENEFICIAL RAIN TO THE REGION. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS FOR THIS ROUND OF STORMS WERE ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR
IN IA AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 34 CORRIDOR IN IL. BOTH
AREAS RECEIVED 1.50-2.25" OF RAIN, WHICH SHOULD HELP IMPROVE AT
LEAST SOME OF THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS. A RETURN
BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS FOR EARLY MARCH OCCURRED THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE FROPA. NOON TEMPERATURES WERE ONLY IN THE
MID 30S/LOW 40S, WHICH IS 20-25 DEGREES COLDER THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES
ADDED INSULT TO INJURY DROPPING WIND CHILLS AROUND OR JUST BELOW
FREEZING THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN NEARLY STEADY
TODAY THANKS IN PART TO STRONG CAA AND EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS
THAT HAS REMAINED DUE TO A STRONG INVERSION AROUND 915MB PER OUR
18Z DVN SOUNDING.
REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...SURFACE RIDGE TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS IA
WITH BREEZY WINDS SUBSIDING AROUND SUNSET. CLOUDS WILL ALSO
BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY REMAINING OVER 7KTS, LIMITING ANY
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. LOWS TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S.
SUNDAY...RETURN FLOW QUICKLY DEVELOPS, WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND WESTERLY WINDS AT 850MB USHERING IN
WARMER AIR (850MB TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 10C BY 00Z MONDAY)
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND DAYTIME MIXING TO AROUND 875MB PER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 60S ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30MPH PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT THE BL LEADING
TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE DANGER. DESPITE THE RECENT RAIN,
AFTERNOON GFDI VALUES INCREASE INTO THE VERY HIGH RANGE SOUTH OF
I-80. OUTDOOR BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
MONDAY-TUESDAY...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT (850MB
TEMPS 12-13C OR NEAR THE DAILY MAX PER SPC CLIMATOLOGY) AND DEEP
MIXING SUPPORT NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S DURING
THE PERIOD. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS. A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY WILL FORM ACROSS IA ON
MONDAY, BUT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND 1000-700MB RH PROGS
SHOWING A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE I AM NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SEVERE POTENTIAL
A LEAD SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT IN THE DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING INTO THE
AREA. A SURFACE LOW TO TRACK ALONG A BOUNDARY FROM NORTHERN KS
ACROSS IA ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL BE A FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME, THE HIGHEST JOINT PROBABILITIES
(30-50%) OF AVAILABLE CAPE AND SHEAR ARE SOUTH OF I-80 AND SPC
HAS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS AREA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AND INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND MORE DETAILS ON SEVERE RISK WILL BE MADE
AVAILABLE IN THE COMING DAYS.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...BREEZY AND COLDER WEDNESDAY BEHIND DEPARTING
SYSTEM WILL BRING US ONCE AGAIN BACK CLOSER TO SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S/MID 50S. MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE WINDS. INITIALLY, LLWS WILL BE THE CONCERN AFTER 08Z
THROUGH 14Z, AS WINDS INCREASE TO 40-45+ KT NEAR 2KFT AGL FROM
THE WSW. SSW SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY INCREASING, BUT
GENERALLY AROUND 10-12 KT BY 12Z WITH SOME SPORADIC GUSTS TO
20+ KT. THE LLWS WILL ABATE BY 14Z-15Z AS SURFACE WINDS GUST
MORE CONSISTENTLY FROM THE SW AT 20-30 KT THROUGHOUT THE REST
OF THE DAY SUNDAY, AND AFTER A BRIEF DECREASE/LULL AROUND SUNSET
EXPECT GUSTINESS TO ENSUE WITH THE NOCTURNAL LLJ RAMPING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9:
KBRL: 74 IN 1986
KCID: 68 IN 2021
KDBQ: 65 IN 1977
KMLI: 71 IN 2021
MARCH 10:
KBRL: 76 IN 1955
KMLI: 74 IN 1955
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...MCCLURE
CLIMATE...GROSS
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