948
FXUS63 KDVN 241110
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS EAST OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER PRIOR TO SUNRISE TODAY.
- DRY AND WARM FOR MOST ON MEMORIAL DAY. THERE IS NOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST IA MONDAY MORNING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR THE REST OF MAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S EACH DAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN MIDDLE OF WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (50-60%) SOUTH OF I-80 ON WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
SOUTHWEST IA AND NORTHWEST MO, WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST. THIS HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD OVERNIGHT, WITH 1 AM READINGS LARGELY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. AT THE SAME TIME, A LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARY OFF LAKE MICHIGAN HAS MOVED SOUTHWEST JUST TO OUR EAST
WHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S. A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED CGS WERE SEEN JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
QUAD CITIES NEAR GALESBURG. THESE WERE OCCURRING ALONG AN
850-925MB MOISTURE GRADIENT/BOUNDARY WITH 0-3KM LAPSE RATES
AROUND 6C/KM AND 0-3KM MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 100 J/KG PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS SUPPORTING THE ISOLATED LIGHTNING FLASHES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO
SUNRISE EAST OF THE MS RVR. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, WITH
JUST LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LATEST
CAMS ALL SHOW THIS ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE JUST TO OUR
EAST AFTER 12Z TODAY. OTHERWISE, A RATHER PLEASANT LATE SPRING
DAY IS IN STORE WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OUT IN THE LOWER 80S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DEEP MIXING UP
TO 750MB MAY OCCUR IN OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY BOOST
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
TONIGHT...AN UPSTREAM COMPACT SHORTWAVE TO DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS LEADING TO AT LEAST AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS. A STRENGTHENING LLJ COMBINED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND 30KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN IA AND
TRACK NEAR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING. BECAUSE OF
THIS, I HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS (20-40%)
NORTHWEST OF A MARENGO TO DUBUQUE LINE. TALL SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES TO KEEP SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW, BUT AN ELEVATED HAILER
CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 159 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
MEMORIAL DAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO TRACK ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA WITH JUST ENOUGH LIFT ALBEIT WEAKENING TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY NORTH OF HWY 30. ALL AREAS WILL HAVE
A DRY FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES. HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST HAS
OCCURRED WITH THE NEWEST 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE. A PSEUDO REX BLOCK
IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AS A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LIFTS NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A BUILDING 582 DAM RIDGE
(2.5 SIGMA) NEAR THE US-CANADA BORDER. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE CENTERED ON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS (55-60%) ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY 34. LATEST NBM 72-HR QPF
PROBS FOR >0.25" HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH AND IN THE
40-60% RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. FURTHER SHIFTS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN LATER FORECASTS, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST IA, NORTHEAST MO, AND
WEST CENTRAL IL. REGARDING TEMPERATURES, THE NBM CONTINUES TO BE
ON THE HIGHER END OF ALL GUIDANCE WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS MAY BE TOO WARM ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY
GIVEN OPAQUE CLOUD COVER, RAIN CHANCES, AND AN EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONWARD...ANOTHER WEAK CLOSED LOW OR OPEN WAVE
OVER NORTHERN TX WILL LIFT NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AND SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS (20-35%) FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES, AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL SET
UP OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS FRIDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO ANOTHER DRY
PERIOD OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEHIND THE
PASSAGE OF AN OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT. DRY AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SOME
DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR
AREAS NEAR CID, DBQ, AND MLI. WINDS WILL LARGELY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GROSS
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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