165  
FXUS63 KDVN 011034  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
534 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH  
TUESDAY.  
 
- A STRONG COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY BRINGS LIGHT RAIN WITH MUCH  
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NUDGE EASTWARD THIS MORNING,  
WITH ITS CENTER PUSHING INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. THE  
COOL, DRY INFLUENCE IT'S HAD ON OUR WEATHER IS SIMILARLY  
GRADUALLY WANING, WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WARMING A DEGREE OR  
TWO OVER YESTERDAY'S VALUES. A PERSISTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER  
NEBRASKA HAS KEPT RAINY CONDITIONS ACROSS NEBRASKA AND WESTERN  
IOWA, BUT HAS THUS FAR REMAINED TOO FAR WEST TO BRING  
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA, THOUGH SOME MID AND  
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER DOES STRETCH ACROSS OUR SOUTHWESTERN  
ZONES. THIS TROUGH FINALLY GETS THE BOOT TODAY, BEGINNING TO  
TREK TO THE SSE TOWARD MISSOURI, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT  
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA  
AGAIN TODAY. CLOUD COVER MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW  
DEGREES FOR NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA, BUT WE STILL EXPECT  
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. FOR TUESDAY  
WE'LL SEE EVEN LESS INFLUENCE FROM THE DEPARTED SHORTWAVE, SO  
MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM TO THEIR WARMEST  
LEVELS OF THE WEEK, IN THE LOW 80S FOR MOST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025  
 
FOR OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER, WE HAVE TO LOOK TO THE NORTH. A  
POTENT TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CANADIAN  
ARCTIC, BUT A SECONDARY TROUGH BEHIND IT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE  
SOUTH TODAY, DRAGGING A COOL, ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH IT. THE CORE  
OF THIS TROUGH DIGS TO ABOUT DULUTH, MN BY WEDNESDAY WHERE IT  
STALLS AND DEEPENS FOR A DAY OR SO BEFORE WOBBLING OFF TO THE  
NORTHEAST LATER THIS WEEK. THE END RESULT FOR US WILL BE AT  
LEAST ONE STRONG COLD FRONT AND A SHIFT TOWARD MUCH COOLER  
TEMPERATURES LATER THIS WEEK AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE  
INITIAL COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION DURING THE DAY ON  
WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE A RATHER LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS  
OUR FORECAST AREA ON ACCOUNT OF THAT DAYTIME FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
FOR SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE IT ARRIVES LATER, WE DO WARM INTO THE  
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR ONE MORE DAY, BUT ONCE THE FRONT BLOWS  
THROUGH WE DROP BACK INTO THE 60S. LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH ON  
WEDNESDAY. AMONG THE 12Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, 90 TO 100 PERCENT OF  
MEMBERS PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE  
24 HOURS ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING, SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH  
IN A WIDESPREAD PERIOD OF RAIN. HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT  
LACKING, RELYING ON REMNANT MOISTURE OVER THE PLAINS RATHER THAN  
A FRESH PULL OF GULF MOISTURE. WHILE SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY  
EXISTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS, IT'S CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE QUITE  
WEAK, AND GREATER WIND SHEAR IS DELAYED UNTIL AFTER THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE. AS A RESULT WE CONCUR WITH SPC THAT THE SEVERE WEATHER  
THREAT IS LOW.  
 
THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD CONSENSUS ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOL  
AIR, INCLUDING ON JUST HOW COOL IT WILL BE. THE COOLEST DAY WILL  
LIKELY BE THURSDAY AS COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGEST AND THE AIR  
MASS IS FRESHEST. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SPENT IN THE 50S TO  
LOW 60S DEPENDING ON HOW DEEP THE MIXING IS BEHIND THE FRONT AND  
HOW EXTENSIVE THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE. GUSTY WINDS MAY  
ACCOMPANY THE COOL AIR, MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.  
 
THE GREATEST SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY OF LATE HAS BEEN HOW LONG THE  
COOL AIR LASTS, AS GUIDANCE HAS VARIED CONSIDERABLY ON THE WAY  
THE UPPER TROUGH WOBBLES FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. THERE'S NOW  
BEGINNING TO BE A GREATER CONSENSUS THAT WHILE THE INITIAL  
TROUGH BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY, ANOTHER  
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE BRINGING ANOTHER COLD  
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. SO JUST WHEN WE START TO RECOVER FROM THE  
INITIAL COLD BLAST, WE GET ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR. WHETHER WE  
GET ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN AND  
DEPENDENT ON HOW DEEP THIS SECOND TROUGH IS. MODEL SOLUTIONS  
WITH A DEEPER, SHARPER TROUGH SQUEEZE MORE PRECIPITATION OUT OF  
IT AS IT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AMONG THE 12Z ENSEMBLE  
MEMBERS, 50 TO 70 PERCENT PRODUCE MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE 24  
HOURS ENDING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NBM POP HAS BEGUN TO RESPOND WITH  
THE GREATEST CHANCES PEAKING AT ABOUT 30 PERCENT EARLY FRIDAY  
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE  
BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED.  
 
NBM FORECAST TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND HAVE CONTINUED TO NUDGE  
DOWNWARD AS CONFIDENCE IS BUILDING THAT BROADER TROUGHING  
LINGERS AND AT LEAST ONE ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE  
COOL AIR IN PLACE LONGER. IT NOW LOOKS LIKELY THAT WE'LL SPEND 3  
OR 4 DAYS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. OUR COLDEST NIGHT WILL LIKELY  
BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVES INTO THE REGION. WHETHER WE CAN REACH THE FULL POTENTIAL  
OF THIS AIR MASS (LOWS IN THE LOW 40S TO UPPER 30S) WILL DEPEND  
ON WHETHER WE CAN GET CLEAR, CALM CONDITIONS. SOME GUIDANCE  
CONTINUES TO SHOW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND  
THE BACK SIDE OF THE BROADER TROUGH EVEN INTO SUNDAY MORNING  
WHICH WOULD HAVE THE EFFECT OF BRINGING ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER  
AND SPOILING OUR CHANCE AT A CLEAR, CALM NIGHT. AFTER SUNDAY,  
CONFIDENCE GROWS THAT WE'LL BE ON A WARMING TREND. RIDGING  
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND SURFACE  
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY AGAIN. AN EARLY LOOK AT NEXT WEEK SUGGESTS  
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS,  
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2025  
 
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY UNDER A MOSTLY  
CLEAR SKY. VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2025  
 
WITH THE UPCOMING COOL AIR MASS, SOME DAILY RECORD LOWS AND  
RECORD COOL HIGHS ARE IN RANGE OF BEING TIED OR BROKEN. THE  
CURRENT RECORDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE SHOWN BELOW:  
 
RECORD COOL HIGH TEMPERATURE:  
SEPTEMBER 4 SEPTEMBER 5  
MOLINE 61 IN 1874 61 IN 1876  
DUBUQUE 58 IN 1994 61 IN 1920  
 
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE:  
SEPTEMBER 4 SEPTEMBER 5  
MOLINE 39 IN 1974 42 IN 1974  
DUBUQUE 38 IN 1974 44 IN 1988 AND OTHERS  
CEDAR RAPIDS 38 IN 1974 42 IN 1974  
BURLINGTON 40 IN 1974 44 IN 1962  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE  
LONG TERM...KIMBLE  
AVIATION...KIMBLE  
CLIMATE...KIMBLE  
 
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