271
FXUS63 KDVN 261735
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1235 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO HE
AREA THIS MORNING.
- DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
- PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
A SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN EARLY THIS MORNING INTO NORTHERN OHIO BY
12 UTC THURSDAY. THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. AT 2 AM THERE IS A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN
AND IF IT KEEPS ON ITS CURRENT TRACK IT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF OUR FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS COUNTIES BY 12 UTC
WEDNESDAY.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND THERE IS WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE
AREA TO FOCUS SHOWER AND STORMS DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS STORM
SYSTEM BUT DECIDED TO KEEP 20 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE AREA NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THROUGH 15 UTC/10
AM CDT TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING. IF SHOWERS AND STORM TO OCCUR, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT.
WINDS WILL SWITCH TO THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT
BY 10 AM. BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, THERE WIND GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS AND THINK THAT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL HELP LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
CLEARING SKIES. DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP LOWER DEWPOINT AIR
ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO
THE LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 205 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD AND FLATTEN OUT DUE
TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING THROUGH THE FLOW TO OUR NORTH. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO QUIET AND SEASONAL
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, BRINGING QUITE THE PLEASANT END TO THE WORK
WEEK.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND, THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY GETS PUSHED EAST
OF THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, THE FLOW WILL TURN
TO THE SOUTH AND DRAW WARM AIR AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL GENERALLY BE
ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH WILL PUT US NEAR THE MAIN STORM
TRACK. THUS, IF THIS PATTERN HOLDS TRUE, IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE
HEADING INTO A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES. THUS, SOME
THINGS WILL NEED TO GET IRONED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER. ALTHOUGH,
NBM DOES INTRODUCE DAILY POPS (20-40%) SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. IT IS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH
THESE SHORTWAVES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH A
SCATTERED CU DECK AROUND 4000 FT. OTHERWISE, WE WILL SEE
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING
5-10 KTS AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING. NO SIG WX IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS/GUNKEL
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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