437
FXUS63 KDVN 221716
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1216 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE RISK TODAY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80 WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-35 MPH.
- MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY.
- PASSING SYSTEMS THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL BRING
FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES AND SHIFTING WINDS. WHILE THERE ARE
RAIN CHANCES, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL LIMIT OVERALL
COVERAGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
2 AM SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST
NORTH OF MILWAUKEE TO A WEAK LOW WEST OF DUBUQUE THEN
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR DES MOINES AND OMAHA. THE FRONTAL WAVE
WILL EXIT TO THE EAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE
FRONT TO SURGE SOUTHWARD EXITING OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY
MID TO LATE MORNING. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY N/NE WINDS
GUSTING GENERALLY 25-35 MPH, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
TRANSITORY HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH THIS MORNING NEAR AND
JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM
INCOMING COLDER AIR AIDING MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF AROUND 40 KT OF
WIND NEAR 1KFT AGL. THESE WINDS AND ATTENDANT COLD ADVECTION
WILL SWEEP AWAY OUR EARLY SUMMER PREVIEW AND BRING BACK A MUCH
COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIRMASS. RAMPING MID LEVEL FGEN
850-700 HPA POST-FRONTAL WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RADAR
RETURNS, BUT TIME-HEIGHT RH PLOTS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR BETWEEN ROUGHLY 750 HPA AND
900 HPA. THEREFORE, PRECIPITATION SHOULD STRUGGLE AND THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MOSTLY VIRGA ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME SPRINKLES OR POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (10-20%)
MID MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO FALL IMMEDIATELY POST-FRONTAL, BUT THEN COULD LEVEL OFF OR
EVEN RISE A LITTLE BEFORE FALLING OFF AGAIN WITH A MAIN SURGE
OF COLD ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO ASSIST OF EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING AND CLOUDS. SUFFICE TO SAY HIGHS FOR THE DAY FOR MANY ARE
OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING. DESPITE THE MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TO MILD AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
THE DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF
ELEVATED FIRE RISK ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-80. QUITE A FEW HOT SPOTS
WERE DETECTED YESTERDAY ON SATELLITE, AND SAW SOME REPORTS OF
FIRE DEPARTMENTS BEING BUSY HAVING TO RESPOND. PLEASE, HOLD OFF
ON ANY OUTDOOR BURNING UNTIL TOMORROW WHEN WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LIGHTER.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT AND MONDAY BRINGING LIGHTER
WINDS AND A CONTINUATION OF MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS. LOWS TONIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS ON
MONDAY WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
ANOTHER WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ANTICIPATED
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS A MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXPANDS AND
BUILDS INTO THE REGION. 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WARMING TO 14C TO 20C
BY THURSDAY WILL SUPPORT HIGHS WARMING THROUGH THE 60S WITH MORE
70S EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH HALF OF THE SERVICE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONT THURSDAY, SOME
AREAS SOUTH COULD EVEN SEE THE 80S RETURN. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND THE DRY CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY IF ANY DAYS MANAGE TO BRING GUSTY WINDS.
THE WARM ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY
COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RAIN CHANCES, BUT THERE'S PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE THUS THESE CHANCES
LOOK LOW AT THIS TIME (20-30%). IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT,
TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE (NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL) LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
CURRENT MVFR CIGS THAT HAVE MOVED INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS ARE NOT BEING HANDLED WELL BY THE MODELS. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY PUSH THE 2-3 KFT AGL CIGS CLOSER TO I-80
THROUGH 00Z/23 BEFORE GETTING SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST. THIS MAY
OR MAY NOT IMPACT KCID/KMLI. LOW LEVEL MECHANICAL TURBULENCE
FROM GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL CEASE WITH SUNSET AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. AFTER 02Z/23 WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...08
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page