293
FXUS63 KDVN 260526
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY AN INCH OR LESS OF
SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
- WINDY, VERY WARM, AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM DUBUQUE, IA TO WILLIAMSBURG, IA.
- SPLIT FLOW OVER THE CONUS THAT FAVORS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE
SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE FLOW WILL BRING
THE PROSPECTS OF SOME PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
AFTER A DRY AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 20S
NORTH TO MIDDLE 40S SOUTH, A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTLOOK AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING,
LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE CULPRIT IS A MID-
LEVEL OPEN-WAVE TROUGH, ALONG WITH ENHANCED 850-700 MB LAYER WARM
AIR ADVECTION (WAA). FGEN FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA,
WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. THE AREA
MOST LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. THE ONSET TIMING OF THE SNOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS
PLENTY OF DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE, SO THIS WILL NEED TO BE
ERODED BY TOP-DOWN SATURATION. THE 25.12Z HREF ENSEMBLE SOUNDINGS DO
SUGGEST THAT THIS WILL OCCUR, WITH SNOWFALL RATES GENERALLY LESS
THAN A QUARTER INCH PER HOUR (RATES IN EXCESS OF THIS IS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM TONIGHT). ONE THING TO WATCH FOR
TONIGHT, MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34, IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LOSS OF SATURATION IN THE ICE-BEARING LAYER ALOFT
WITH LINGERING MOISTURE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, SO THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE WAKE
OF THE SNOW. THIS COULD CAUSE A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE, ESPECIALLY ON
UNTREATED SURFACES. AS FOR SNOW, AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE AN INCH
OR LESS FOR MOST, GIVEN THE SIGNAL IN THE LATEST ENSEMBLES (HREF
EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES OF 1" OF TOTAL SNOW IS AROUND 20-50% -
HIGHEST FROM WILLIAMSBURG, IA SOUTHEAST TOWARDS MACOMB, IL). FOR
NOW, WE'LL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR SNOW AND ICING. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SHOULD FALL TO THE UPPER TEENS ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR TO
THE UPPER 20S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.
OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ENDED BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING,
ALTHOUGH ANY LINGERING SNOW OR ICE ON THE ROADS COULD GENERATE SOME
SLICK SPOTS FOR THE COMMUTE, SO MAKE SURE TO USE EXTRA CAUTION ON
THE ROADWAYS THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS
FOR LINGERING SATURATION IN THE LOW-LEVELS FARTHER NORTH AFTER THE
WAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER THAN 6 AM.
HOWEVER, THERE'S VERY LITTLE LIFT IN THE SATURATED LAYER, AND
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF THIS DRIZZLE OCCURRING GOES EVEN LOWER
(LESS THAN 10%), SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE, THURSDAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUD COVER AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP, LEADING
TO TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR MOST
SPOTS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL JET WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE HIGH 50S TO MID 60S BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH GUSTY SW
WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE 30-40% RANGE, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER RISK WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A COLD FRONT BRINGS SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES BACK ONCE AGAIN.
TWO PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST COMES
ON SATURDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE NORTH.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80, AS POPS IN THIS REGION INCREASE UP TO 60% IN THE
ENSEMBLES.
THE SECOND OF THESE CHANCES IS SUNDAY MIDDAY INTO OVERNIGHT. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SUPPORTED WITH RISING MOTION FROM THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, WITH POPS
30-60% CHANCE, HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL, WITH CHANCES FOR
ANOTHER SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY. HOWEVER, A WIDE SPREAD OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS AND MODELS BRINGS INTO QUESTION THE TRACK AND POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
BULK OF THE SNOW HAS CROSSED THE MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. WEAK FORCING/LIFT SHOULD ALLOW AREAS OF FLURRIES TO
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z/26. OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA SHOWING VERY
LITTLE IF ANY CIGS BLO 3KFT AGL SO THE DZ/FZDZ RISK IS RAPIDLY
DROPPING AND IS LIKELY CLOSE TO ZERO. AFTER 12Z/26 WINDS TO
BECOME SOUTHERLY BUT GENERALLY BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...ELLINGWORTH
AVIATION...08
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