657  
FXUS63 KDVN 252017  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
217 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2020  
 
SURFACE LOW AND AN ATTENDANT 500 MB LOW WERE CENTERED ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, AND WERE KEEPING THE MIDWEST  
LOCKED UNDERNEATH CLOUDY SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. SNOW SHOWERS  
WERE ALSO WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW, WITH THE BULK FALLING FROM  
EASTERN WISCONSIN TO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS WHERE AMOUNTS UP TO 4 INCHES  
WERE RECORDED.  
 
IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS, ONLY A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES  
REMAINED WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW TO  
MID 30S. A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE NOTED ON LATEST GOES-16  
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH WAS AHEAD OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THIS HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCER OF OUR WEATHER FOR THE  
SHORT TERM PERIOD.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2020  
 
1) LEFTOVER FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA TONIGHT.  
 
2) MAINLY QUIET, DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND.  
 
3) SLIGHT CHANCE OF FLURRIES OVER EASTERN IOWA SUNDAY MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO REACH SOUTHERN  
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, TAKING THE BULK OF MOISTURE  
AND POCKETS OF WRAP-AROUND LIFT WITH IT. AS A RESULT, OUR CHANCES OF  
SEEING ANY FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO  
TONIGHT.  
 
BEHIND THE LOW, WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING  
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND. INCREASING  
SUBSIDENCE WITH THE RIDGING WILL HELP STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION ALOFT  
NOTED AROUND 800 HPA ON THE DVN 12Z SOUNDING, HELPING TO PREVENT  
MUCH MIXING OUT OF THE HIGH LOW-LEVEL HUMIDITIES. AS A RESULT, NOT  
EXPECTING TO SEE PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK  
WEEK.  
 
FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A  
WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX PASSING OVERHEAD. ATTENDANT  
LOW-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT  
SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER,  
THE LIFT WILL BE WEAKENING WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE  
SHORTWAVE, SO NOT EXPECTING FLURRIES TO BE LONG LASTING OR LEAD TO  
ANY IMPACTS.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE REFLECTIVE OF THE CLOUDS OVERHEAD, BUT WILL  
ALSO BE IMPACTED BY CAA INITIALLY AND THE SNOW COVER. EXPECTING LOWS  
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS  
SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2020  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. QUIET WEATHER PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE LONG TERM WITH  
AVERAGE TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  
 
2. A FEW WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY CAUSE  
LIGHT PRECIPITATION, NONE OF THEM LOOK TO BE SIGNIFICANT  
 
DISCUSSION:  
 
OVERALL NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A FEW CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTO NEXT WEEKEND THERE ARE SUGGESTIONS A RIDGE  
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS.  
CURRENT BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S. AS WE  
GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEKEND, WE SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA OF WHAT  
TEMPS MAY BE. IN THE MEAN TIME, THE FIRST WAVE LOOKS TO BE IN THE  
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE SECOND WAVE LOOKS TO AFFECT  
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK.  
 
THESE TWO WAVES CURRENTLY PRODUCE LITTLE QPF IN THE DETERMINISTIC  
MODELS. FOR THE FIRST WAVE, THE GEFS SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE  
SUGGESTING THAT THERE MAY BE A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR  
FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF IT IS SNOW IT SHOULD BE  
LIGHT, IF IT IS FREEZING DRIZZLE AS SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST  
THEN WE MAY SEE GREATER IMPACTS. CURRENTLY FAVOR SNOW AS CONFIDENCE  
IN ZL IS LOW. THE SECOND WAVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK HAS JUST  
SLIGHTLY HIGHER QPF THAN THE FIRST WAVE. THERE ARE TIMING  
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SO CONFIDENCE EXACT TIMING  
IS LOW, HOWEVER THE QPF TAKEN TOGETHER SUGGESTS A TENTH OF QPF  
APPEARS LIKELY AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CST SAT JAN 25 2020  
 
PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL HELP LOW  
CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING HIGH-END IFR CIGS  
TO IMPROVE TO LOW-END MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIFT FROM A SURFACE LOW  
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT, DECREASING WINDS WITH AN  
APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR FOG,  
MAINLY AT KDBQ/KCID/KMLI. ADDITIONALLY, THE APPROACH OF A MID-LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE/VORT MAX WILL LEAD TO A LOWERING OF CIGS, ESPECIALLY AT  
KDBQ. ELSEWHERE, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME OF THE POTENTIAL,  
SO HAVE TRENDED WITH A SCT007 AT REMAINING SITES IN THIS TAF.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST SAT JAN 25 2020  
 
ICE ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS NEAR THE  
QUAD CITIES. POOL 16 CURRENTLY HAS THE MOST IMPACTS FROM THIS ICE.  
EVEN THOUGH THE RIVER HAS DROPPED AT THE RCKI2 GAUGE, REPORTS FROM  
EM STILL HAVE FLOODING ON ENCHANTED ISLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY  
CONTINUE UNTIL THE ICE BREAKS UP. THE EXACT TIME THAT THE ICE WILL  
BREAK UP IS HARD TO ASCERTAIN.  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...SPECK  
SHORT TERM...SPECK  
LONG TERM...GIBBS  
AVIATION...SPECK  
HYDROLOGY...GIBBS  
 
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