879
FXUS63 KDVN 192319
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
619 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY. A FROST
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SCOTLAND AND CLARK COUNTIES FROM
MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM.
- DRY AND WARMER WEATHER IS FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED
NEAR THE IOWA.ILLINOIS BORDER BY 06 UTC MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO COOL QUICKLY
AS THE SUNSETS AND WINDS DIMINISH WITH FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 26 DEGREES AT FREEPORT TO 34 DEGREES AT FORT
MADISON. NBM FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES SHOW THAT THERE IS A 60
TO 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING NORTH OF
A FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG LINE WITH A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE
SOUTH OF THAT LINE. THERE IS A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF
TEMPERATURES BELOW 28 DEGREES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 OR NORTH OF A
CEDAR RAPIDS TO CLINTON TO STERLING ROCK FALLS LINE WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THERE IS A
FREEZING WARNING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS FROM
MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM MONDAY AND FROST ADVISORY FOR CLARK AND
SCOTLAND COUNTIES FROM MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER 12 UTC MONDAY
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TO TURN TO THE SOUTH
AND BEGIN TO PULL WARMER AIR NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. IT WILL BE
BREEZY ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY WILL BE WARMER AND RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN FAR
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TO THE UPPER 60S IN FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
THERE IS BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS 500 MB
RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR WEST AS A CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM UP THROUGH
THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ON THURSDAY, SYNOPTIC MODELS AGREE ON EJECTING A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS SHOW 500 TO
1000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
HINTING THAT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER TO OUT WEST
ON DAY 5. CSU MACHINE LEARNING PROBS SHOW A BROADER SEVERE
THREAT AREA ACROSS THE REGION SO STAY TUNED TO FORECASTS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE FORECAST OR
THUNDERSTORM THREATS.
MODELS SHOW THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW FURTHER OCCLUDING INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PLACING THE REGION IN BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING COOLER WEATHER TO THE
REGION WITH CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH SHORTWAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
WINDS WILL QUICKLY DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS WITH SUNSET AND BECOME
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RE-DEVELOP AFTER 14Z/20 BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2026
THE HEAVIEST RAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FELL IN THE
LA MOINE, PECATONICA AND ROCK RIVERS AND THESE RIVERS WILL SEE
THE FASTEST RESPONSES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ROCK
RIVER AT MOLINE IS FORECAST TO GO ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE ON
MONDAY WITH THE CREST CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE FALLING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RISES CONTINUE ON ALL AREA RIVERS
WITH LONGER DURATION RISES ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAINLY FROM
ROCK ISLAND SOUTH.
THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE AREA BRINGS SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO THE AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY PROLONG FLOODING DEPENDING
ON WHICH BASINS THE RAIN FALLS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099.
IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
ILZ001-002-007-009-015>018-024>026-034-035.
MO...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
MOZ009-010.
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...COUSINS
AVIATION...08
HYDROLOGY...COUSINS
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