132
FXUS63 KDVN 241044
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
444 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY, DRY AND RELATIVELY WARM CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN
ELEVATED FIRE RISK MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO CEDAR
RAPIDS, IA LINE TODAY.
- A QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
MAINLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHILE SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED, THE TIME
FRAME AND AREAL COVERAGE IS DECREASING.
- A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN THAT FAVORS NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE CONUS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. WEAK SYSTEMS IN THE FLOW WILL BRING THE PROSPECTS OF
SOME PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
CHILLY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE FIRST PART
OF THE MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS AT OR BELOW ZERO.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHICH IN SPITE OF THE STRONGER LATE FEBRUARY
SUN SHOULD TEMPER HIGHS TODAY.
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER ARE RUNNING 30-35 KNOTS
(DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL). A GOOD CHUNK OF THIS SHOULD MIX DOWN
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
ACROSS MAINLY THE EASTERN HALF THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE RELATIVELY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE RISK FOR AREAS
SOUTH AND EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO CEDAR RAPIDS, IA LINE TODAY. CURRENT
PLAN IS TO ISSUE AN SPS REGARDING THE FIRE RISK PRIOR TO SUNRISE.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME AND SKIES WILL CLEAR AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>85%) CONFIDENCE ON A STORM SYSTEM. LOW (<25%)
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION
THE TREND WITH ALL MODELS HAS BEEN TO A MORE OPEN WAVE FOR THE
SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THIS MAKES
MORE SENSE THAN THE CLOSED SYSTEM SOME OF THE MODELS WERE SHOWING A
FEW DAYS AGO. AT THE SAME TIME, AN OPEN WAVE MEANS A WEAKER SYSTEM
AND THUS MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION.
ANOTHER TREND WITH THE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SLOWLY MOVE THE OPEN WAVE
FURTHER SOUTH WITH TIME WHEN IT COMES OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THIS IN
TURN RAISES QUESTIONS TO WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WOULD LAY OUT
ACROSS THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY, A SOUTHWARD TREND RAISES THE
PROSPECTS OF THE AIR BEING MUCH DRIER ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WOULD
FURTHER REDUCE THE OVERALL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
INDEED, FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE VARIOUS MODELS SHOW A VERY DEEP
DRY LAYER ACROSS THE AREA. TOP DOWN SATURATION SLOWLY OCCURS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE IS STILL A LAYER OF DRY AIR AT SUNRISE
THURSDAY IN SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS.
GIVEN THIS THE CURRENT 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS SUSPECT
AND WILL LIKELY TURN OUT TO BE DRY.
BASED ON THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THE TIME FRAME AND AREAL COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS DECREASING. A BEST ESTIMATE
RIGHT IS IS A 6 TO PERHAPS 9 HOUR WINDOW FOR RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW
STARING AROUND 9 PM WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SNOW ENDING BETWEEN 3
AND 6 AM THURSDAY.
SINCE THE WINDOW FOR SNOW IS SHRINKING, THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS ALSO DECREASING. WITH A SOUTHWARD SHIFT AND
NARROWING OF THE SNOWFALL WINDOW, AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF SEEING VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WITH A NARROW BAND OF 1
INCH ACCUMULATIONS. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30, FLURRIES OR A MINOR DUSTING
MAY OCCUR.
RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS 20-60% CHANCES FOR SNOW WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30.
THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY MORNING.
IF THERE IS, ANY LINGERING SNOW WOULD BE DONE BY THE CONCLUSION OF
THE MORNING COMMUTE.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE ON DRY CONDITIONS. LOW (<20%)
CONFIDENCE ON TEMPERATURES.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING MORE WARM AIR INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE QUESTIONS REGARDING HOW WARM IT MAY GET ON FRIDAY.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THE FLOW IS MORE NORTHWEST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOW AN INVERSION ALOFT. THIS INDICATES
THE BETTER WARMER AIR IS ALOFT RATHER THAN AT THE SURFACE. IF THE
INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE (SUGGESTED BY SOME MODELS) THEN A SHALLOW
LAYER OF RELATIVELY COOL AIR WOULD REMAIN IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE
WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER THAN FORECAST TEMPERATURES.
ADDITIONALLY, ANY CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA WOULD ALSO HELP SUPPRESS
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY. THESE TEMPERATURES COULD BE 5-7 DEGREES TOO WARM IF
THERE ARE CLOUDS AND THE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM (40-60%) CONFIDENCE ON SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
THE GLOBAL MODELS VARY A BIT ON TIMING BUT EACH SUGGESTS TWO WEAK
SYSTEMS ABOUT 18-24 HOURS APART MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE WEAKEST
OF THE SYSTEMS WOULD BE ON SATURDAY BRINGING A 20-30% CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR SNOW TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80.
THE RELATIVELY STRONGER OF THE TWO SYSTEMS ARRIVES ON SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
STORM TRACK WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE BUT IT APPEARS
THAT SNOW WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE DURING THE DAY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80 AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF I-80. SNOW
WOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A 20-40% PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY WITH A 30-40% PERCENT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 439 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
THE SIGNAL FOR LLWS HAS BECOME WEAKER OVER THE PAST 6 HRS AND
MAY NOT EVEN BE 25 KNOTS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE
POTENTIAL UP THROUGH 15Z/24. NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL BREAK
14Z-16Z/24 WITH WIND GUSTS RAMPING UP TO 30-35 KNOTS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 18Z/24
WILL VEER WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. AFTER 00Z/25 WINDS TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH BUT GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
12Z/25.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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