017  
FXUS63 KDVN 242312  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
612 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
- LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES (20-50%) OF RAIN REMAINS IN THE PICTURE  
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE BETTER SIGNAL  
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
 
QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM BEING STILL LARGELY  
GOVERNED BY A LARGE EXPANSE OF GREAT LAKES RIDGING AND  
DRY EASTERLY FLOW. WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID/  
HIGH CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT TO A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND  
ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION. THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT MAY ALSO  
BRING SOME RETURNS ON RADAR, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE  
SUB-CLOUD LAYER PARCHED WITH AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT OFF  
THE GREAT LAKES HIGH. AS A RESULT, ANTICIPATE MAINLY VIRGA,  
WITH SOME SPRINKLES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION PARTICULARLY ACROSS  
OUR FAR WEST/SOUTH.  
 
LOWS TONIGHT LOOK TO VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH SOME  
FROST MAINLY N/E OF QUAD CITIES /WHERE CLOUDS THINNER AND LIGHT  
WINDS TO ALLOW FOR MORE RADIATIONAL COOLING/ TO THE MID/UPPER  
40S FAR S/W WHERE MORE OPAQUE CLOUDINESS AND A BIT STRONGER E/SE  
WINDS.  
 
ON A SIDE NOTE, BETWEEN THURSDAY MORNING AND THIS MORNING MOST  
OF THE AREA HAS SEEN A FREEZE. AS A RESULT, THIS WILL LIKELY  
MEAN THE END OF THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES AND ANY MENTION OF  
FROST IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
 
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE  
TO APPROACH THE REGION, MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY WEEKEND. THE NBM  
CONTINUES TO HAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AROUND 20-40% FOR THE  
WEEKEND, WITH MINIMAL AMOUNTS EXPECTED THANKS TO LINGERING DRY AIR  
IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER. THE LATEST LREF ENSEMBLE EXCEEDANCE  
PROBABILITIES OF TOTAL RAINFALL OF 0.1 INCHES OR GREATER HAVE  
DROPPED TO GENERALLY 20-40% THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND (HIGHEST  
CHANCES ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTH), SO NOT A GREAT SIGNAL FOR A WETTING  
RAINFALL. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY HELD INTO THE 50S AND  
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST NEAR 60 TO THE LOWER 60S BUT IF CLOUDS ARE  
MORE OPAQUE WITH A CONTINUED LIGHT EASTERLY WIND COULD BE LIMITED  
TO THE 50S FOR SOME.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT: THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT  
ACTIVE AS A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP OVER  
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.  
THIS SHOULD HELP BUILD A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF  
THE CONUS, ALTHOUGH LREF ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS VARIOUS  
SPATIAL SOLUTIONS TO THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH, WITH SOME ENSEMBLE  
MEMBERS PLACING IT OVER OUR REGION AND OTHERS FARTHER EAST. IF THE  
TROUGH IS MORE OVER OUR REGION, WE WOULD SEE HIGHER RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS, BUT IF THE TROUGH IS MORE TO THE EAST, THEN WE WILL LIKELY  
SEE LESS RAINFALL AMOUNTS. GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES, UNCERTAIN  
REMAINS PRETTY HIGH FOR HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE, AND THE LREF  
PROBABILITIES OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR GREATER OF TOTAL RAINFALL  
DOESN'T PROVIDE MUCH CLARITY, WITH VALUES AROUND 40 TO 70 PERCENT  
(HIGHEST TO THE WEST) FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR SOME MID-LEVEL RIDGING  
TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY, DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE  
LONGWAVE TROUGH SHUNTS OFF TO THE EAST. THE NBM DOESN'T HAVE MUCH  
FOR POPS DURING THIS PERIOD, WHICH SUGGESTS THE GEFS AND ECMWF  
ENSEMBLES ARE SIMILAR TO THEIR DETERMINISTIC COUNTERPARTS, WHICH  
KEEP CONDITIONS LARGELY DRY FOR THIS PERIOD. AGAIN, MUCH WILL DEPEND  
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MONDAY/TUESDAY LONGWAVE TROUGH.  
 
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WITH  
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S/NEAR 60 AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH  
AN INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS. DRY SUB-CLOUD AIR SHOULD  
LIMIT ANY WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY VIRGA WITH  
SOME SPRINKLES POSSIBLE WITH NO IMPACTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN  
GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE E/SE THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THEN BECOME  
SUSTAINED FROM S/SE AROUND 10 KT ON SATURDAY WITH SPORADIC GUSTS  
14-20 KT BY AFTERNOON.  
 
 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE  
LONG TERM...MCCLURE/SCHULTZ  
AVIATION...ERVIN/MCCLURE  
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