261
FXUS63 KDVN 282237
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
537 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP US UNDER
NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW, USHERING COOLER AND DRY AIR INTO THE
REGION.
- FROST IS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- PATTERN SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH SOME RETURN FLOW WORKING INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE TO INCREASE, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING TO THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES. A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL HELP TO LIMIT AMOUNTS TO A
TRACE TO POSSIBLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
40S WITH CLOUDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
WE WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD TROF AND CUTOFF UPPER
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. WITHIN THIS PATTERN, WE WILL SEE
BOUTS OF ENERGY GYRATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW, WHICH BRING THROUGH
BOUTS OF CLOUD COVER AND LOW-END CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHTER AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST, KEEPING US UNDER COOL/DRY
ADVECTION. THUS, WE WILL BE FIGHTING FOR MOISTURE AS THESE PASS
THROUGH. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LOW (<20%
CHANCES), YET NON-ZERO. MUCH OF THIS WILL COME THROUGH AS
SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE, WITH LOW QPF. OVERALL, MUCH OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. WITH SUCH A
PATTERN IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS,
WITH DAILY MAX TEMPS GRADUALLY DECREASING EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, KEEPING US JUST A
LITTLE COOLER THAN WE HAVE BEEN SEEING, WITH A BREEZE. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE, FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS;
LOW TEMPERATURES COULD DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30.
SUNDAY AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, WE WILL SEE
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW WORK INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
WILL USHER IN SOME STRONG WAVES, WHICH WILL FINALLY START TO
SHIFT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW EAST. WITH THIS, WE WILL
START TO SEE A DEEPER RESPONSE FROM THESE WAVES, ALLOWING FOR
SOME LLVL RETURN FLOW INTO THE REGION. THUS, WE WILL START TO
SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. ALONG WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES, WE
WILL SEE MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASE, RESULTING IN INCREASING
CHANCES (20-40%) FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN IA THIS EVENING, BRINGING AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS. A DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER TO KEEP MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
AS VIRGA, BUT A FEW ISOLATED SPRINKLES/RAIN SHOWERS MAY REACH
THE GROUND FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE BEHIND SHORTWAVE EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY OVER 20KTS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...GUNKEL/UTTECH
AVIATION...GROSS
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