495
FXUS63 KDVN 060551
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1151 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM PASSING TO THE NORTH MAY RESULT IN PATCHY LIGHT
SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE TONIGHT NORTH OF I-80, MAINLY NEAR
AND EAST OF DUBUQUE (10-20%).
- A CLIPPER WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACK NEAR THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION EVERY 36 TO 48 HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO MOST AREAS WILL NOT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME
PATCHY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES OR EVEN A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE
(DUE TO LOSS OF IN-CLOUD ICE) ARE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
QUAD CITIES. THIS CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A LITTLE TO NO IMPACT
EVENT BECAUSE ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND TEENS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
OVERVIEW: THE STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT SHIFTING OF THE JET STREAM WITH
EACH PASSING CLIPPER SYSTEM. THERE IS A CLIPPER FORECAST
ROUGHLY EVERY 36 TO 48 HOURS THAT WILL PRODUCE MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION/SNOW CHANCES AS THEY PASS NEAR THE AREA.
SATURDAY - EARLY SUNDAY MORNING:
A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY SATURDAY TO EITHER CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WILL LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY
BAND OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A CORRIDOR OF LOWER LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS (925-850MB). THERMAL PROFILES PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIRLY WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH
850MB TEMPS ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW 0 C; FOR I-80 AND NORTH
850MB TEMPS DROP OFF TO -4 TO -8C. SNOW RATIOS OUTSIDE OF THE
MODERATE/HEAVY BAND WILL LIKELY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY, RANGING FROM UNDER 9:1 TO NEAR 12:1 (LOWEST SOUTH
OF I-80). WHERE THE STRONGER ASCENT LINES UP WITH THE DGZ, SNOW
RATIOS MAY PEAK OVER 15:1. MODEL CONSENSUS QPF (FROM THE NBM)
HAS A ZONE OF 0.25" TO 0.35" ROUGHLY IN THE COUNTIES
ALONG/NORTH OF I-80, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES TO THE SOUTH.
THE NBM HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR 2"+ TO 70-90% NEAR AND
WEST/NORTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. FOR 4"+, THE PROBS ARE 30-60%
NEAR AND W/NW OF THE QUAD CITIES. AND FINALLY, THE CHANCES FOR
6"+ DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH PEAK VALUES NEAR WEST/NORTHWEST
OF CEDAR RAPIDS BETWEEN 15-25%. WINDS WON'T BE TOO STRONG
INITIALLY WITH THIS EVENT BUT STILL BETWEEN 10-20 MPH AT TIMES,
ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME MINOR BLOWING/DRIFTING WHERE THE SNOW IS
DRIER. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY (FROM 6 PM
SATURDAY TO 6 AM SUNDAY) WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ON A SOLID
2-3"+ OF TOTAL SNOWFALL. HOWEVER, DID HOLD OFF ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND EAST- CENTRAL COUNTIES DUE TO A LATER START TIME
EXPECTED IN THIS REGION AND WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON AMOUNTS
BECAUSE THE STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
EASTWARD PROGRESSION.
SUNDAY ON:
NW WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND COULD REACH
20-30 MPH, LEADING TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW IN OPEN
AND RURAL AREAS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ADVECT A COLDER AIR MASS
INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S, AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
WARMER AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER CLIPPER THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S. THIS SYSTEM
WILL PASS FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE ONE ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND DEPENDING ON THE TRACK MAY RESULT IN MORE OF WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE AREA BUT THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CST FRI DEC 5 2025
MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER AT EASTERN
IOWA TAF SITES THROUGH 12 UTC. IFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY AT
KDBQ OVERNIGHT THEN AT THE OTHER LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE SHOWS A
SLIGHT LIFTING OF CEILINGS AFTER 12 UTC BUT MVFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
DETERIORATE AGAIN AFTER 00 UTC ON SUNDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM
SPREADS SNOW INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 03 UTC BUT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER AS MORE
INTENSE SNOWFALL OVERSPREADS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE TURNING TO
THE EAST AFTER 21 UTC AHEAD OF THE SNOW. A WINTRY MIX IS
POSSIBLE AT KMLI AND KBRL AFTER 00 UTC BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THIS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME SO IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
THIS ISSUANCE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR ILZ015-024.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...COUSINS/UTTECH
AVIATION...COUSINS
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