171
FXUS63 KDVN 102010
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
210 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH MID-EVENING WITH FLURRIES
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE SUNDAY. THE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVE ABOUT A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF BEING
SNOW SQUALLS.
- THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
THE FIRST OF TWO UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BRIEF CLEARING WE HAD AHEAD OF
THIS DISTURBANCE MEANS THAT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE OF
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE VERY SHORT TERM MODELS (E.G. HRRR) DO SHOW SOME BRIEF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH THE SNOW SHOWERS WHICH IS BEING
VERIFIED IN SOME OBSERVATION SITES.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY SNOW SQUALLS WITH
THE FIRST DISTURBANCE. THE BRIEF CLEARING DID INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
ENERGY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER VALUES
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SQUALLS. BASED ON WHAT HAS
OCCURRED, THE PROBABILITY OF A SNOW SQUALL OCCURRING LOOKS TO BE 25-
30 PERCENT. THE HEAT ABSORBED BY THE BRIEF PERIOD OF SUN TODAY
SHOULD PREVENT ANY RAPID FREEZING ON ROADS.
ONCE THE EVENING SNOW SHOWERS END, A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW. THIS
DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FLURRIES AND ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST PAST MIDNIGHT
BUT END PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUNDAY.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO START OUT WITH CLOUDS AND CHILLY TEMPERATURES. AS
THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THE CLOUDS WILL
SLOWLY BREAK UP DURING THE DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUN BEING SEEN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (>80%) CONFIDENCE OF TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL
ALL MODELS SHOW THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ASSESSMENT...LOW TO MEDIUM (15-35%) RISK OF PRECIPITATION
THE CHANGE TO NORTHWEST FLOW OCCURS AROUND MID-WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
PUSH TWO SEPARATE COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING DOWN
TEMPERATURES. TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO DAYS PRIOR TO
THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST FRONT.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGES ON BOTH DAYS AND THE
OVERALL FORCING IS WEAK. THUS WHILE 85-90 PERCENT OF THE AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY, THERE IS A 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS TUESDAY AND FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>95%) OF TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO
NORMAL
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, A COLD CORE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS CLOSE TO NORMAL. WHILE THE CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS, I CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED
FLURRIES OCCURRING.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM (40-60%) CONFIDENCE OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM. LOW
(<25%) CONFIDENCE REGARDING TRACK AND OVERALL IMPACTS.
THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE DISAGREEMENTS
REGARDING TRACK AND TIMING.
THE CMC IS THE FURTHEST SOUTH AND THE FASTEST WITH THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM HAVING IT ARRIVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN ELONGATED
TROF THAT PERSISTS INTO FRIDAY.
THE GFS/UKMET ARE SIMILAR AND HAVE THE MAIN LOW GOING ACROSS
MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER, BOTH ARE ALSO HINTING AT
A WEAKER SECONDARY LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE ECMWF/ICON MODELS ARE SIMILAR ALBEIT THE ECMWF IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH IN BRINGING THE LOW ACROSS THE AREA SUGGESTING SOME SNOW FOR
THE AREA.
INTERESTINGLY, THE ECMWF-AIFS AND AIGFS ARE POLAR OPPOSITES. THE
ECMWF-AIFS SUGGESTS LITTLE OF ANY SNOW FOR THE AREA WHILE THE AIGFS
BRINGS ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE RESPECTIVE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY.
MOST HAVE THEIR LOW CENTERS PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. ONLY THE
EPS HAS A SMATTERING OF MEMBERS WITH A LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
AS A RESULT OF ALL THESE DIFFERENCES, THE MODEL CONSENSUS ONLY HAS
20-35 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. ONCE THE ENERGY
THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS CLIPPER COMES ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOULD BEGIN CONVERGING ON A TRACK
AND TIMING WHICH WILL RESULT IN SNOW CHANCES INCREASING.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
ASSESSMENT...HIGH (70-90%) CONFIDENCE OF COLDER THAN NORMAL
RIGHT NOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK/TIMING OF THE
THURSDAY/FRIDAY CLIPPER THESE POPS LOOK REASONABLE RIGHT NOW. THE
BIGGER MESSAGE IS THE TREND TOWARD COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHSN ARE EXPECTED THAT
HAVE A 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF BEING SQUALLS WITH VSBYS 1SM
OR LESS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. AFTER 02Z/11 LOW LEVEL
MECHANICAL TURBULENCE WILL BE SEEN WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AND LIKELY MVFR
CONDITIONS. AFTER 12Z/11 CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
SLOWLY DECREASING WINDS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...08
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