922
FXUS63 KDVN 121050
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
450 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE THIS WEEK AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS. A WARMING TREND WILL BE SEEN
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND.
- THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TRACK AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS AROUND A CLIPPER SYSTEM DURING THE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY TIME FRAME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE THE WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM. EVEN
THOUGH WE HAVE NW FLOW ALOFT, WE ACTUALLY HAVE WAA, AS WARMER
AIR TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF US MOVES INTO THE AREA. A WEAK WAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW NOW, LEADING TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS.
THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON LEADING
TO MORE FILTERED SUN. A SECOND, STRONGER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE
BETTER VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS
WAVE WILL BRING CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE
WAA, WE ACTUALLY HAVE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SO BOTH
THESE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITHOUT
PRODUCING ANY PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW. THE CLIPPER TRAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EACH OF THESE CLIPPERS WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS TO THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME INCREASED WINDS. LATER IN THE
PERIOD, AFTER COLDER AIR DUMPS INTO THE AREA, THESE CLIPPERS
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE AREA.
LOOKING TO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, TWO COLD FRONTS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE FIRST ONE IS RATHER WEAK AND WILL
LEAD TO A TEMPORARY COOL DOWN. THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS MUCH
STRONGER. H85 TEMPS OF -15 TO -18C ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS COLD
DUMP AS A 1035 HPA HIGH DROPS INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE
STRONG WITH THIS SYSTEM. WE WILL LIKELY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THESE WINDS AS WE COULD EASILY SEE GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH.
TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS RETURN TO MORE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
THE SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK IS THE BEST CHANCE FOR US TO
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE OVERALL PATTERN
BETWEEN THE SPECTRAL MODELS SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT IN VORTICITY
FIELDS AS TWO MAIN WAVES MOVE INTO THE AREA. THEY DISAGREE ON
TIMING AND THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE WAVES. AS A RESULT,
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW. THERMAL
PROFILES SUPPORT SNOW WITH THESE SYSTEMS. OVERALL, QPF LOOKS
LIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING A REALLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM, HOWEVER, WE
COULD SEE SOME SNOW ON THE GROUND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 449 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS GUSTS RETURN
LATER TOWARDS DAYBREAK TOMORROW. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page