981
FXUS63 KDVN 081034
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
534 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MAINLY A DRY AND SEASONABLE SATURDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THEN INCREASING AGAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN
OR NEAR THE LOCAL AREA.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN KEEPS RAIN CHANCES GOING THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH PLENTY OF DRY HOURS IN
BETWEEN. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS WELL INTO THE EARLY
WEEK PERIOD WITH PORTIONS OF THE AREA POTENTIALLY IN THE
EVENTUAL NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES SUNDAY-MONDAY, DEPENDING ON
CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WITH A WEAK FRONT SLIPPING THROUGH THE AREA, WILL HAVE TO KEEP LOW
CHC POPS FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM EARLY IN THE PERIOD
BUT THEN THE REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST SFC
WINDS AND SOME CLOUDS, HOPEFULLY NO FOG WORTH MENTION THIS MORNING
OR JUST A LITTLE PATCHY OCCURRING WHERE THE RECENT HEAVY RAIN FELL.
LATER TONIGHT, EXTRAPOLATING AN UPSTREAM A RIDGE-RIDING PACIFIC NW
SHORT WAVE DOWN TOWARD THE AREA IN FLATTENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. ELEVATED WAA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND A 25
KT SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ MAY FUEL SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PERCULATING ACRS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
BESIDES MAYBE SOME SMALL HAIL, CURRENT PROGGED THERMODYNAMICS AND
KINEMATIC PROFILES SUGGEST MAINLY NON-SEVERE ELEVATED STORMS SUNDAY
MORNING. SEVERAL CAMS DON'T HAVE THAT MUCH ACTIVITY LOCALLY UNTIL
AFTER 10-12Z SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
SUNDAY...COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY,
WITH MORNING ELEVATED PRECIP AND DEBRIS CLOUDS POSSIBLY TEMPERING
THE HEAT UP POTENTIAL, AS WELL AS THE ONGOING SHORT WAVE PASSAGE
THAT DAY AND THE SFC FRONT TRYING TO RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. THE BIG QUESTION IS WHERE THE LLVL THERMAL AXIS LAYS OUT
FOR LLVL CONVERGENCE TO ACT ON FOR RENEWED CONVECTION INITIATION TO
TAKE OFF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CURRENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR PROGS OF 35-
45 KTS HELPED IN PART BY STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL JET FLOW, AND
POTENTIAL MUCAPES OF 2-3K J/KG, THERE LOOKS TO BE A COMBO OF SUPPORT
FOR SEVERE STORMS AND DAMAGING WINDS. BUT AGAIN WHERE THIS AXIS OF
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS IS STILL UNCERTAIN. SEVERAL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
THIS AXIS COULD BE RIGHT ACRS THE LOCAL AREA SAY FROM NORTH CENTRAL
IA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IN SUNDAY EVENING, WHILE SEVERAL OTHER MODELS
LAY IT OUT FOR MOST OF THE ACTION TO OCCUR JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST ACRS WI. DEPENDING ON WHAT OCCURS LATE SAT NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING WILL DETERMINE WHAT OCCURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING(BOUNDARY AND OUTFLOW LAY-OUT), BUT WILL HAVE TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THAT AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE LOCAL CWA MAY BE IN LINE FOR
TROUBLE AND POTENTIALLY NASTY STORMS.
THE SAME THINKING ABOUT BOUNDARIES AND CLOUD DEBRIS WILL HAVE TO BE
TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IF AMBIENT TEMPS CAN WARM UP ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
HEAT HEADLINES. RIGHT NOW WE ARE ADVERTISING HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH AT LEAST MID 70 DPTS MAKING FOR HEAT INDEX
READINGS IN THE LOW 100S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY, WILL HOLD OFF ANY HEAT HEADLINES FOR NOW.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE FLATTENING RIDGE TRANSITION, THE
LOCAL AREA MAY BE UNDER THE BATTLE ZONE OF THE LLVL THERMAL GRADIENT
AND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE PROPAGATION PATH FOR ALMOST DAILY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. IF NOT FOR CLOUD DEBRIS
AND BOUNDARY PLACEMENT, MONDAY AND TUESDAY MAY BE HOT ENOUGH FOR
HEAT HEADLINES AS WELL AT LEAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL AREA(MOST
LIKLEY THE SOUTH HALF). A DEEP SUMMER MCS-TRACK FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER TO THE SOUTHERN GRT LKS AND OH RVR
VALLEY MAY ADD UP TO QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL BY NEXT THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS POSITIONED FROM KCID TO NEAR KDBQ EARLY THIS
MORNING. WEAK WINDS, ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND RADIATIONAL COOLING
HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME PATCHY FOG PARTICULARLY AT KDBQ TO START
WITH VARIABLE VISIBILITIES FROM MVFR TO VLIFR. EXPECT IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR EARLY ON AT KDBQ AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
ALBEIT REMAINING LIGHT WITH A VEERING TO NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS
AT ALL SITES BY MID MORNING. SOME STRATOCU AND POTENTIAL FOR
TRANSITORY BOUTS OF MVFR CEILINGS DOES EXIST MID TO LATE MORNING,
BUT TOO LOW OF CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. TONIGHT,
THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS SIGNAL FOR CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT
(09/06Z-09/12Z). FORECAST PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY 30-50%
AND THUS HANDLED WITH PROB30 MENTION, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT HIGHER
COVERAGE NECESSITATING TEMPO OR PREVAILING MENTION AT SOME SITES.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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