135
FXUS63 KDVN 140734
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
234 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TODAY, THEN 80S FRIDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE
AREA IN A MARGINAL, OR LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK, FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN FOR THIS
WEEKEND AND MONDAY IN A SLIGHT, OR LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK, FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
- AT THIS TIME, THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
RISK IS FORECAST TO BE ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. STAY TUNED IN THE COMING DAYS AS MORE DETAILS EMERGE ON
THIS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS EARLY TODAY, WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVER OUR AREA, ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES, AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. THIS CHILLY START WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WARMER DAY TODAY, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. IT
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A NOTABLE INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
SPREAD IN FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY. FOR MOST, THIS WILL
STILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S EAST TO
UPPER 70S WEST. DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD FIRMLY IN PLACE DUE TO
EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR NEAR THE HIGH PRESSURE UNTIL AFTER 6 PM.
A BROAD WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE MIDWEST THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE OCCURRING WITH STRONG WAA AND
INCREASING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO IOWA AND MISSOURI DURING THE MID
TO LATE EVENING HOURS. AFTER YESTERDAY'S REMARKABLY DRY ATMOSPHERE,
WE'RE POTENTIALLY SEEING PWAT VALUES OVER 1.50 MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
AREAS TONIGHT. THE NBM BRINGS IN LOWS POPS UNDER 40% THROUGH THE
NORTH HALF OF THE AREA THIS EVENING, WITH THE MAIN SHORT WAVE,
HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE INCREDIBLY LIGHT IF IT REACHES THE
GROUND. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL OVERNIGHT IN THE
SOUTH, WHILE THE NORTH PROBABLY REMAINS DRY. INITIALLY, A STRONG
AREA OF STORMS TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST SHOULD FORM IN NORTHERN MO AND
KS, BUT OVERNIGHT, THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST, POTENTIALLY INTO
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. POPS ARE 60 TO 80% OVER THE
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA, (HIGHEST SOUTH), WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM TRACK OF THE MAIN STORMS OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI TOWARDS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. RAINFALL COULD BE OVER 0.5 IN THAT EVENT ALONE
GIVEN THE MOISTURE, BUT THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS THAT MUCH OF THAT
EVENT FALLS SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES TOO. THE MAIN THREAT
OVERNIGHT FROM SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
MAINLY LESS THAN 1 INCH, AND SOME GUSTY WINDS POTENTIALLY. THE LATE
EVOLUTION OF STORMS INTO OUR CWA LOWERS OUR CONFIDENCE ON ANY
ACTIVITY BEING ISOLATED AND STRONG, VS A MATURE AREA THAT COULD BE
SINKING SOUTH OF THE CWA WITH TIME AS IT MOVES EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE TIMING OF THESE FIRST TWO WAVES OF WAA DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LEAVE FRIDAY A MAINLY DRY AND PLEASANT WARM DAY. THE BREAK IN
STORMS, AND BREAK IN CLOUD COVER LEADS US TO OUR FIRST WARM DAY IN
THIS STRETCH, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S EAST TO MID 80S WEST.
FRIDAY NIGHT, A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION IS EXPECTED TO LATE
TONIGHT, THIS TIME THOUGH, A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK IS POSSIBLE, AS
SHOWN IN AT LEAST 50% OF GUIDANCE. WITH A WARMER ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE, INHERENTLY MORE UNSTABLE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAN TONIGHT,
THIS OFFERS A LOW, BUT MORE MIXED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OF
BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS, THOUGH ONCE AGAIN, WE MAY BE
TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THE STORM EVOLUTION FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
THREATS DECREASING WITH TIME.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES FAVOR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMING SOUTHWEST
FLOW THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DEEPENS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WITH GULF MOISTURE
RETURN, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE INTO
THE MID 50S F BY SATURDAY AND AT LEAST INTO THE 60S BY SUNDAY
AND POTENTIALLY THE LOWER 70S BY MONDAY. WHEN COMBINED WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S, BUOYANCY WILL ALSO BE ON
THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE REGIONAL OUTLOOKED IN MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISKS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WITHIN THIS PERIOD,
MONDAY HAS THE MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR ALL SEVERE WEATHER
HAZARDS (LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES), FOLLOWED BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
FROM A SETUP STANDPOINT, THE WAVERING FRONT REMAINS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, AND THEN BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH ON SUNDAY
AS A WARM FRONT WITH A LARGE WARM AND BUOYANT SECTOR
ESTABLISHING ITSELF ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL US ON MONDAY.
BUOYANCY WILL BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THIS STALLED TURNED
STATIONARY TURNED WARM FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE SOUTH OF I-80, SOUTH OF THE
STALLED FRONT. THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO THE STRENGTH OF
FORCING AND SHEAR FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION,
AND THE SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
DESCRIBES THE THREAT WELL FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH A SMALL AREA OF
A DAY 4 SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
BUOYANCY CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO SUNDAY. AS STRONGER IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ARRIVE AND THE LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, THE COVERAGE AND
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS WILL BE GREATER THAN COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. MONDAY POSES THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT FROM A COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION STANDPOINT WITH A
HIGHER CEILING FOR ALL HAZARD MAGNITUDES FOR LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADOES. AS LOW PRESSURE PROPAGATES INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY, WITH STRONG MID AND LOW LEVEL JETS,
FORCING AND SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED COINCIDENT WITH MODERATE TO
STRONG BUOYANCY. SPECIFIC DETAILS AND TIMING WILL BE WORKED OUT
OVER THE COMING DAYS, HOWEVER, MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE
PROBABILITIES ALL POINT TO MONDAY BEING THE MOST SIGNIFICANT DAY
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, ALLOWING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY. SPORADIC TO OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE
FAVORED AT EASTERN IOWA AIRPORTS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING. AN INHERENT DRY AIR MASS PROVIDES
UNCERTAINTIES ON THURSDAY LATE EVENING SHOWER COVERAGE AND START
TIME, WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES PROBABLY ABLE TO HONE IF AND
WHEN MENTION IS NEEDED AND IF THAT NEEDS TO INCLUDE THUNDER.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...ERVIN/NWS
AVIATION...FRIEDLEIN
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