790
FXUS63 KDVN 051826
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
126 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT,
DRY CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LARGE AND IN CHARGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1025 MB. THIS IS NEAR
THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MSLP PER THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE CLIMATOLOGY, SO
THIS SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP SUSTAIN PLEASANT AND
DRY CONDITIONS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT, TUESDAY MORNING'S LOWS SHOULD DIP TO THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL WARM UP TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
THANKS TO WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE SURFACE HIGH. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME BREEZY AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30. GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A
DRY AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL WORK ITS WAY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS TUESDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
UNDER BROAD TROUGHING OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN OUR AREA, RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
RISING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE LOWERING THE FORECAST
DEW POINTS CLOSER TO THE 10TH PERCENTILE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, CONSIDERING THE CONSENSUS BLENDS TEND TO
UNDERPERFORM ON THE PBL MIXING IN DRY AIR MASSES. ULTIMATELY, THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
OUR LONE CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO BE FOR THURSDAY
NIGHT, WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE MID-LEVELS IS PROGGED TO
APPROACH THE REGION. MESOSCALE FORCING WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO A
WARM FRONTAL ZONE DRAPED OVER IOWA. WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE,
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL REMAIN LOW, WITH BOTH THE NBM AND
LREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE RAIN ONLY AROUND 10-30%, MAINLY
OVER SOUTHEASTERN IOWA.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT IS FORECAST TO
BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A 500 MB TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS LIKE WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE 70S
AND EVEN SOME ISOLATED LOWER 80S. BOTH DAYS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH TUESDAY,
STRENGTHENING AROUND MID-MORNING TUESDAY. GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ/COUSINS
AVIATION...SCHULTZ
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