464  
FXUS63 KDVN 311733  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
1233 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING  
BEFORE A LARGE STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS  
 
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY IN OUR REGION, WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY  
 
- OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY  
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025  
 
AFTER A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEEKEND WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS, THE  
START OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE DRY AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE  
SWEEPS THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS. CURRENT GOES-EAST NIGHTTIME  
MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE LOW STRATUS DECK ACROSS MOST  
OF THE AREA, BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT FROM  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY  
NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE  
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY  
WILL BE MORE SEASONAL COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH HIGHS IN  
THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE  
AXIS TRANSLATES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, MAKING FOR A QUIET NIGHT  
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. TONIGHT'S LOWS SHOULD FALL TO THE  
UPPER 20S NORTH TO LOWER 30S SOUTH.  
 
TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE ONLY  
EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS OUR NORTH AS CHANCES OF WARM AIR ADVECTION  
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE (20-40%). THIS IS ALL AHEAD OF OUR NEXT  
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVE WEATHER FOR  
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP  
SLIGHTLY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.  
ADDITIONALLY, GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN  
25 TO 35 MPH AREA-WIDE.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025  
 
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE CONTINUES TO BE ON A LARGE  
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FOR TUESDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. DURING THE DAY  
TUESDAY, A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TAKE SHAPE  
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH A 130+ KT UPPER-LEVEL JET NOSING  
TOWARDS OUR REGION. LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS FROM THE GEFS, EPS, AND  
GEFS ENSEMBLES ALL PAINT A SIMILAR PICTURE ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE  
TROUGH. THE FULL SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE  
INDICATES A COLORADO LOW DEVELOPING VIA LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND  
TRANSLATING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. BOTH THE GEFS  
AND EPS ENSEMBLES SHOW THIS GENERAL PATH, WITH THE GENERAL  
CLUSTERING OF THE ENSEMBLE SURFACE LOWS AROUND WESTERN IOWA BY 12Z/7  
AM WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES SUGGEST PRETTY  
LOW MSLPS, WITH VALUES BETWEEN 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE  
MEAN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING (80-100% CHANCES), WITH SOME OF  
THESE STORMS POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS  
NORTHWARD. A VERY STOUT 50-60+ KT LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ) AHEAD OF THE  
SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP, AIDING IN POLEWARD THETA-E  
TRANSPORT AND SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (>60 KTS). MID-LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES DON'T APPEAR TO BE TOO STEEP TUESDAY NIGHT - GENERALLY  
AROUND 6.5 TO 7.5 DEGREE C/KM, BUT GIVEN THAT CONVECTION SHOULD  
MAINLY BE ELEVATED, HAIL WILL LIKELY BE THE MAIN THREAT TUESDAY  
NIGHT. THE ECMWF EFI CAPE-SHEAR VALUES CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.7  
TO 0.9, INDICATING A NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT. WITH ALL OF  
THIS SAID, SPC HAS MAINTAINED A CWA-WIDE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5)  
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR LARGE HAIL. THEN, SPC  
HAS AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND  
AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF OUR  
CWA. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK AFTER 12Z/7 AM WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE  
MAINLY FOR THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE SURFACE LOW  
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND THE LLJ VEERS AND WEAKENS. FOR WEDNESDAY'S  
CONVECTION, ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE (LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,  
AND TORNADOES) AS STORMS COULD BECOME SURFACE-BASED, WITH MIXED-  
LAYER CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG AND CLOCKWISE CURVATURE IN  
THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS FOR A TIME BEFORE BECOMING MORE STRAIGHT-  
LINED PER THE LREF ENSEMBLE HODOGRAPHS. TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WILL  
NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, SO STAY  
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS! WEDNESDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF  
THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS.  
 
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR  
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS, EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS  
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH  
LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. WITH OUR REGION REMAINING NORTH OF A  
FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE, MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION  
WILL BE A BIT MORE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OUR REGION. AFTER A WARM  
WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES FOR  
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SWINGING WINDS  
AROUND FROM THE NORTH TO EAST BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. HIGH LEVEL  
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 12Z/01 AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM  
APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
18Z/01 TO 00Z/02 AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS  
EASTERN IOWA.  
 
 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...SCHULTZ  
LONG TERM...SCHULTZ  
AVIATION...08  
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
The Nexlab IL Page
The Nexlab IA Page
The Nexlab MO Page
Main Text Page