749
FXUS63 KDVN 112342
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
642 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID JULY ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY WARMING OF DAYTIME HIGHS
POTENTIALLY (40-60% CHANCE) INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 90S BY
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LIMITED HUMIDITY WITH DEW POINTS
LIKELY (60-90% CHANCE) IN THE MID-60S TO LOW 70S SHOULD KEEP
HEAT INDICES BELOW 100 DEGREES.
- THE FORECAST IS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOW
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING IN STEADILY TODAY, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AND
DECREASING HUMIDITY. THUS, WE'RE ARE SEEING MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND NO RAIN ON THE RADAR TODAY. DEW POINT VALUES ARE
NOW IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 15 MPH.
CERTAINLY A MORE PLEASANT DAY THAN RECENT HUMID TIMES IS FOUND AREA-
WIDE.
WITH DRY AIR AND CLEAR SKIES IN PLACE TONIGHT, LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S
ARE EXPECTED IN ALL LOCATIONS. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY, AS WE BEGIN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME WITH BOTH SURFACE AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. THIS REGIME WILL FEATURE A
GRADUALLY WARMING AIR MASS, LIGHT WINDS, AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.
WHILE THERE IS NO GULF MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION, WE ARE AT
PEAK SEASON FOR CROP ET, SO DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR
SUNDAY, HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED, FOLLOWED BY LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT, UNDER HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SUNSHINE AND HIGHS RISING TO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. THIS SHORT TERM WEATHER WILL LINGER WELL INTO THE
EXTENDED, AS BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
IN BUILDING RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE PLAINS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. A CLOSED LOW IN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS AND A CLOSED 500 MB 600 DAM CONTOUR IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FORM A REX BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL US THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY WOULD
KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY MODIFY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOW TEMPERATURES WARMING FROM THE MID
60S TO THE LOWER 70S AFTER WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/LOW
70S WILL LIMIT HEAT INDICES TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S NEXT WEEK.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY, MODELS BEGIN TO DISAGREE AS THE GFS SHIFTS THE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WHILE OTHER MODELS AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN RETROGRADE THE REX BLOCK TO THE WEST. THIS IS BRINGING
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR DIFFERENT
REASONS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTION ALLOWS FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE THE RETROGRADE OF THE REX
BLOCK BRINGS THE STORM TRACK CLOSER TO THE AREA ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE
DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA AND PRODUCE LIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS ANDS STORMS. THE
RETROGRADING REX BLOCK SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE FAVORED BY MODELS AND
THE NBM AND THINK THAT THIS IS THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO GIVEN THE
TENDENCIES FOR BLOCKING TO RETROGRADE WITH TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WITH A HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN OVER THE AREA, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECASTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OUTSIDE A FEW
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, AND THE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BETWEEN 3-7 KNOTS. THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE (10-20%) OF MVFR FOG (3-5SM VISIBILITY) TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE LED TO ITS
EXCLUSION IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...COUSINS/ERVIN
AVIATION...DELAUNE
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