328
FXUS63 KDVN 230601
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
101 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/THURSDAY NIGHT. DAMAGING WIND AND HEAVY
RAIN ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- THE NEXT THREAT FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
A PLEASANTLY MILD EVENING IS IN STORE TONIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY AND MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 15 MPH RANGE, WITH THE STRONG WINDS
IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE THIN, AND
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN
NEARLY ALL LOCATIONS. DEW POINTS READINGS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE, WITH NEAR 60 DEGREES DEW POINTS VALUES ARRIVING BY
MORNING THURSDAY.
MUCH OF THURSDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND DRY, WARMING BACK TO THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S, WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. SOME 30 MPH GUSTS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST.
BY AFTERNOON, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT A IMPULSE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS MAY TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THAT SEEMS TO BE A LOW PREDICTABILITY CHANCE,
AS THIS WAVE IS NOT YET SAMPLED WELL BY UPPER AIR, AND IS ONLY THERE
IN A HANDFUL OF THE 12Z CAMS. THAT SAID, IF THUNDERSTORMS DO SPREAD
INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON, THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SUFFICIENT CAPE/SHEAR FOR SOME SEVERE THREAT, AGAIN, MAYBE A 20-30
PERCENT CHANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY OCCURRING.
THE MAIN FRONT, AND UPPER FORCING WILL SPREAD INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY
EARLY EVENING, RESULTING IN THE MAIN CONVECTIVE EVENT FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN IN THE EARLY TO MID
EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST, WITH AN EXPECTED
MATURE LINEAR MODE, ALONG AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL. THAT COLD POOL
COULD ARRIVE INTO OUR WESTERN COUNTIES WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS,
AND BRING 50-65 MPH GUSTS, UNTIL THE BALANCE OF MUCAPE AND SHEAR
BECOMES TILTED TOWARD THE SHEAR, WHEN THE COLD POOL OUT-RACES THE
UPDRAFTS. THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN THE LINE "GUSTING OUT" OR
BECOMING FRAGMENTED AS IT QUICKLY MOVES EAST INTO COUNTIES NEAR THE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OR AS CAPE VALUES WANE. CONVERGENCE
FROM THE SOUTHERLY LLJ OVERNIGHT SHOULD FAVOR UPDRAFTS IN THE
SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LINE NEAR MISSOURI, AND NEAR THE NORTHERN
BOOKEND MESOLOW PORTION, EXPECTED TO BE MOVING NORTH OF OUR AREA,
THUS SOME GOOD POTENTIAL IS THERE WE SEE THIS SPLIT MUCH OF THE
AREA. MEASURABLE RAIN DOES LOOK RATHER HIGH PROBABILITY, SO
POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED RATHER HIGH.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY, DECAYING CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE AREA, WITH ONLY SCATTERED QPF OVER 0.10
POSSIBLE. IN TOTAL ON THIS EVENT, AMOUNTS OVER 0.5 APPEAR MOST
FAVORED IN OUR NORTHWEST 1/3, WITH LOWERING AMOUNTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
FRIDAY... SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT FROM THURSDAY NIGHT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS DRY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN, LEADING TO A
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND LOWS TO DROP INTO THE 40S
AGAIN.
SATURDAY... A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHERE A SURFACE LOW
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN IN THE
LOW AND MID-LEVELS WILL SUPPORT CLOUD COVER AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS
(10-20% COVERAGE) SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY-MONDAY NIGHT... A TROUGH IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL
BE PULLED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN KS
WITH A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING TO OUR SOUTH OVER MO. THIS WILL SET UP
A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT FOR THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE PACIFIC AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN FROM THE GULF WILL ENABLE PWATS TO CLIMB TO OVER 1.25 INCHES.
CURRENT LREF GUIDANCE HAS A 30-40% CHANCE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXCEEDING 1 INCH SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH HAS BEEN
TRENDING UPWARD OVER THE LAST COUPLE RUNS. CURRENTLY, RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TRACK OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES TRACKING THE LOW
ANYWHERE BETWEEN NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN MN. THIS WILL HAVE A GREAT
INFLUENCE ON THE LOCATION OF THE WARM SECTOR AND INSTABILITY ACROSS
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND CAN BE SEEN IN THE SPREAD OF
MUCAPE VALUES OVER 1000 J/KG IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES. REGARDLESS, THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THIS EVENT COULD IMPACT LOCAL RIVERS THAT
ARE ALREADY IN FLOOD STAGE OR WILL BE CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... CONDITIONS DRIES OUT AGAIN ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTER ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT, AND ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS ACROSS THE CONUS. SEASONABLE HIGHS AND LOWS ARE
FORECASTED BEFORE THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 0100 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
A BUSY PERIOD OF WEATHER WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TAF PERIOD AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS ALONG A COLD FRONT IN WESTERN IA. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO START THE PERIOD, ACCOMPANIED WITH GUSTY WINDS
STARTING AROUND 15Z. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE PAST
18Z, THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN WHETHER A PRE-FRONTAL
CLUSTER WILL DEVELOP, HENCE THE USE OF PROB30 GROUPS. IF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. GREATER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PASSING THROUGH
CID AND DBQ BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, BRINGING WITH THEM AT
LEAST MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...DELAUNE
AVIATION...ELLINGWORTH
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