710  
FXUS63 KDVN 100945 CCA  
AFDDVN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  
345 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- LIGHT SNOWFALL AND MINOR ACCUMS ENDING BY MIDDAY.  
 
- POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LATE SATURDAY  
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  
 
- COLDER EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK BEFORE SOME MODERATION OCCURS  
LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2025  
 
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES A POSITIVE TILT TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
CONUS. WITHIN THIS TROUGH A SHORTWAVE, RESPONSIBLE FOR WIDESPREAD  
WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WAS SHIFTING EASTWARD.  
WE'RE SEEING A GLANCING SHOT OF SOME WEAKER LIFT FROM THIS  
SYSTEM LEADING TO SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FAR  
SOUTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING. A RESERVOIR OF DRY AIR  
SAMPLED BY THE 00Z DVN RAOB WAS LIMITING THE NORTHWARD  
PROGRESSION, AND WILL LIKELY ONCE AGAIN YIELD A VERY SHARP  
CUTOFF FROM SNOW (WITH AROUND 1 INCH OR SO OF ACCUM) TO NOTHING.  
THIS GRADIENT WILL LIKELY RESIDE IN OR NEAR PARTS OF HANCOCK,  
MCDONOUGH, WARREN, BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES BEFORE THE LIGHT  
SNOW DEPARTS BY MIDDAY-ISH. SOMETHING TO NOTE IS AN EMBEDDED  
SHORTWAVE TRACKING ACROSS MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING, WHICH IS  
AIDING IN A SURFACE FRONT TRAVERSING OUR AREA CURRENTLY. AS  
THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR  
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER NORTHWARD FOR A BRIEF TIME  
THIS MORNING. ALSO, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME POTENTIAL FOR A  
LOSS OF IN-CLOUD ICE AND GOES 16 CLOUD TOP PHASE SHOWS  
SUPERCOOLED LIQUID WATER POST-FRONTAL, AND SO CAN'T RULE OUT SOME  
FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH LIGHT SNOW NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A  
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME WITH THE LOW LEVEL SATURATION. CEILING  
HEIGHTS REMAIN RATHER HIGH (GENERALLY ABOVE 1500-2000 FT AGL)  
SUPPORTING OF ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE BEING EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT SHOULD  
IT OCCUR, BUT ROADS MAY BECOME SLICK FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE AND  
HAVE ISSUED AND SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL.  
 
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD  
WITH THAT TROUGH, AS AN ASSOCIATED VORT MAX SWINGS THROUGH THE  
REGION. MOISTURE IS PRIMARILY LOCATED BETWEEN 950 MB AND 800 MB  
AND THIS MAY LEAD TO PREDOMINANTLY FLURRIES GIVEN THE CYCLONIC  
FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW SOME LOW LEVEL  
INSTABILITY TO WHERE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS  
WELL. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK (BELOW 50 J/KG) AND NOT SEEING  
ANY INDICATIONS OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL FGEN BAND, THUS NOT  
ANTICIPATING ANY SNOW SQUALLS. BUT, SOMETHING TO JUST KEEP AN  
EYE ON FOR ANY CHANGES (MORE SOLAR INSOLATION, GREATER  
INSTABILITY), AS THE LAYER SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER FROM THE NAM  
DOES POP VALUES TO 0.5 INTO PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WHICH  
TYPICALLY WE LOOK FOR VALUES GREATER THAN 1.  
 
THE TROUGH LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH BY 06Z TONIGHT, THUS EXPECT  
A DECREASE FROM W/NW TO E/SE IN BOTH FLURRIES/ISOLATED SNOW  
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER BY MID EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT.  
WITH COLDER CONDITIONS BY MORNING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS  
AND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 10 DEGREES AIDED BY  
NNW WINDS 5-15 MPH.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2025  
 
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND WITH  
SURFACE RIDGING MOVING THROUGH ON SATURDAY. CLOUDS WILL  
BE ON THE INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT  
WEATHER SYSTEM QUICK ON THE HEELS OF THIS FIRST DEPARTING  
SYSTEM. THE LOW TRACK STILL HAS GOOD AGREEMENT ON PASSING  
TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. LIFT WILL COME IN  
TWO ROUNDS, WITH THE FIRST BEING A RAMPING BOUT OF WARM, MOIST  
ADVECTION SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT. POPS ARE PRIMARILY LOW  
(20-40%) FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT,  
WITH DRY AIR LINGERING OWING TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH SATURATION.  
MODEL SOUNDINGS HOWEVER SHOW AN UNSATURATED DGZ AND IN-CLOUD  
TEMPS THAT ARE WARMER THAN -10C SUGGESTING MORE IN THE WAY OF  
SUPER-COOLED WATER, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE WITH  
LOW LEVEL SATURATION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, BUT ENOUGH SIGNAL IN  
THE SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE  
MENTION. IF IT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD BE EXCEEDINGLY LIGHT TO  
WHERE NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. LATE SATURDAY NIGHT  
AND SUNDAY THE SECOND ROUND OF FORCING SWINGS THROUGH ATTENDANT  
TO A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS LOOKS  
TO FOSTER DEEPER SATURATION AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF A PERIOD OF  
SNOW, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-80. ACCUMULATIONS WOULD APPEAR TO  
BE AN INCH OR TWO AT MOST FROM THE LOOKS OF IT RIGHT NOW.  
 
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WE'LL SEE ANOTHER BOUT OF COLDER AIR AND  
A DROP ON TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE  
IN THE TEENS/LOWER 20S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/LOWER  
TEENS. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME CLIPPER SYSTEMS IN THE NW FLOW  
ALOFT, BUT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS RANGE GIVEN THE LOW  
AMPLITUDE NATURE.  
 
HEADING INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK SOME MODERATION IN  
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED, AS THE FLOW TURNS SEMI-ZONAL  
ALLOWING FOR SOME MP AIRMASS INFLUX.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST THU JAN 9 2025  
 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR WITH SOME IFR  
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN LOW CLOUDS. A SYSTEM WILL  
SPREAD SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO SE IOWA, WC ILLINOIS AND NE  
MISSOURI AFTER 07Z THROUGH 15Z. PROBABILITIES FOR SNOW HAVE COME  
DOWN AT BRL AND MLI DUE TO DRY AIR AND A MORE EASTERLY  
TRANSLATION OF THE SYSTEM. BRL PROBS ARE STILL LIKELY (60%) AND  
SO WILL KEEP AT LEAST TEMPO MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW 09Z-15Z WITH  
MVFR MOST LIKELY VISIBILITY WITH A CHANCE OF IFR. MEANWHILE, MLI  
PROBS ARE IN THE CHANCE (30-40%) AND SO WILL KEEP PROB30  
MENTION FOR LIGHT SNOW 10Z-14Z. OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT WILL  
GRADUALLY SHIFT ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT  
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW AND THOSE CIGS LOWERING TO  
LOWER MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR. AFTER THE LIGHT SNOW DEPARTS BY  
MID MORNING SE, WE'LL HAVE THE CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL FLURRIES  
THE REST OF THE DAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN  
TIMING AND MINIMAL IMPACTS PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF THESE IN THE  
TAFS AT THIS TIME. CIGS WILL LIKELY LIFT INTO HIGHER MVFR TO  
VFR FRIDAY PM/EVENING WITH NW WINDS AROUND 10-15+ KT.  
 

 
   
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
IA...NONE.  
IL...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE  
LONG TERM...MCCLURE  
AVIATION...MCCLURE  
 
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