065
FXUS63 KDVN 252316
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OUT OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE.
- TURING COOLER AFTER MONDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
QUIET, DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ASSESSMENT...MEDIUM TO HIGH (60-80%) CONFIDENCE ON STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MONDAY
MOST OF SUNDAY EVENING LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR THE AREA AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE FEED REMAINS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME, DIURNAL CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
AREA. THE LLJ AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL MAKE THE ATMOSPHERE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
SUNRISE MONDAY.
MONDAY MORNING THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE ACROSS
THE AREA. BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN BE
THE FOCI FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
WE HAVE TWO POTENTIAL SCENARIOS FOR MONDAY AND THERE IS A 50/50
CHANCE OF EITHER OCCURRING;
1) NOCTURNAL CONVECTION PERSISTS INTO THE AFTERNOON THUS LIMITING
THE DIURNAL HEATING. NET RESULT WOULD BE LIMITED STORM COVERAGE WITH
ONLY A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION DISSIPATES QUICKLY ALLOWING STRONG
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO OCCUR. NET RESULT WOULD BE WIDESPREAD STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE HAS SEVERAL FAVORABLE FACTORS FOR
SEVERE STORMS; THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR, STRONG CLOCKWISE TURNING OF THE HODOGRAPHS,
MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVING AHEAD OF PEAK HEATING AND THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVING IN EASTERN IOWA JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING.
IF SCENARIO 2 OCCURS, DISCRETE STORMS WOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
AND QUICKLY GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTICELLULAR LINES. WHILE IN THE
DISCRETE PHASE, ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
TORNADOES WOULD BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE DISCRETE PHASE, AND BASED
ON THE HODOGRAPHS, COULD BE STRONG.
ONCE THE DISCRETE CELLS GROW UPSCALE INTO MULTICELLULAR LINES,
DAMAGING WIND BECOMES THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK WITH HAIL AND
SPIN-UP TORNADOES BEING A SECONDARY RISK.
THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES IN EASTERN IOWA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. DEPENDING UPON THE SPEED
OF THE FRONT, THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK MAY BE OVER BY MID-EVENING.
LATE MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE BREEZY AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
MOISTURE IS SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ASSESSMENT...A CERTAINTY (>95%) OF COOLER TEMPERATURES
AFTER THE MONDAY STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CONUS. THE NET RESULT IS COOLER TEMPERATURES.
PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30.
MUCH OF THE TIME PERIOD WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE A SERIES OF
WEAK DISTURBANCES ALOFT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH ON A NEAR DAILY BASIS
THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR EVEN A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY MID/HIGH
CLOUDINESS AND EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 8-15 KT. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
NIGHT WHERE WE MAY HAVE SOME LAKE MICHIGAN STRATUS AND FOG TRY AND
ADVECT TOWARD THE TERMINALS IN THE EASTERLY FLOW LATE INTO EARLY
SUNDAY AM. WIND MAGNITUDE (15-20+ KT) IS MORE FAVORABLE IN THE CLOUD
BEARING LAYER, BUT IT'S SET TO VEER FROM E/SE WHICH WOULD KEEP THE
BULK OF ANY STRATUS JUST NORTH/EAST. SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR ANY
CHANGES.
DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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