636
FXUS63 KEAX 291907
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
207 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
- PERIODIC SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS UNTIL
POTENTIAL SUNDAY EVENING OR OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITH 500MB HEIGHTS OVERLAID SHOWS AN OMEGA BLOCK-
LIKE PATTERN OVER THE CONUS, WITH ONE LOW CENTERED NEAR
ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE OTHER MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. LOCALLY,
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS OCCURRING WITH ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE NOTED
OVER ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO LEAD
TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM EASTERN KANSAS INTO
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE KC AREA. ADDITIONALLY, SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE NOTED
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE GREAT BASIN LOW, AND THAT IS AIDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVERALL, WE MAY SEE THIS
ACTIVITY LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEFORE SOME
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OCCURS FROM DIURNAL EFFECTS BUT ALSO THE AREA
MOVING INTO SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVES. THIS DECREASE MAY BE SHORTLIVED AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
WITH THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE, FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL GET ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS THAT THEN PROPAGATE EASTWARD LATE
TONIGHT/ EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE IS FAIRLY LOW AS INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK WITH
WEAK SHEAR. A STRONGER WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT TO SUNDAY MORNING, AND THE PROCESS ABOVE REPEATS ITSELF WITH
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKING POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. HOW ALL
THIS UNFOLDS WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/ EVENING. MODELS SHOW THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT LEADING TO STRONGER SHEAR
PROFILES. IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP IN THIS ATMOSPHERE, IT WILL HAVE TO
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS WARM AND HUMID WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND WARMER NEXT WEEK AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE CONUS. THIS LOOKS
MOST PRONOUNCED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WORK WEEK WHEN HIGHS MAY
APPROACH 90 WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD
LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND SOME AREAS IN
OUR SOUTH APPROACHING 100.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE LAST HOUR ACROSS THE KC
AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF THIS ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. OTHERWISE, A MIXTURE OF MVFR TO VFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM. TOMORROW
MORNING, ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS/ STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE SO HAVE ADDED A PROB30 TO CAPTURE THAT LOWER END
POTENTIAL.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
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