447
FXUS63 KEAX 102354
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
654 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH 9PM TONIGHT.
MULTIPLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, CAPABLE
OF VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW STRONG TORNADOES.
- ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS REMAIN
POSSIBLE FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
===== ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY =====
SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE REACHED THE MID TO UPPER 80S, THOUGH
WE ARE WITHIN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. WHILE THIS YIELDS HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER
100S, THIS HEAT IS NOT THE MAIN HAZARD FOR TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN MO THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW (POSSIBLY STRONG) TORNADOES. SPC
MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH SBCAPE
VALUES AROUND 4500-5000 J/KG OVER NORTHEASTERN KS. WITH A 35KT LLJ
OVER THE AREA, SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION, WITH ENOUGH CURVATURE IN THE LOWEST 3KM TO SUPPORT A
SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
A DEEPENING SFC TROUGH IS EXTENDING THROUGH WESTERN IOWA AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. COMBINED WITH A REMNANT BOUNDARY FROM
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING, WE ARE SEEING CONVECTION
INITIATION TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THE 18Z SOUNDING
FROM TOPEKA SHOWS A LOADED GUN PROFILE, WITH VERY LARGE CAPE AND NO
CAPPING, STRONG SHEAR, AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY EXCEEDING 200 M2/S2.
EXPECT TO SEE LOW LEVEL SHEAR CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SUPPORTING HP SUPERCELLS THAT COULD CONGEAL SOMEWHAT INTO A
LARGER CLUSTER OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. IF STORMS CAN REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DISCRETE, THE TORNADO RISK WILL BE GREATER. THE SIGNIFICANT
TORNADO PARAMETER COULD INCREASE THIS EVENING, LEADING TO GREATER
CONCERN FOR STRONG TORNADO POTENTIAL. ASIDE FROM THE TORNADO RISK,
THERE IS A DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT AS WELL. THE WOFS
ENSEMBLE FOR GREATER THAN 1 INCH HAIL IS MORE THAN 60% ACROSS THE
TORNADO WATCH AREA. THE TORNADO WATCH RUNS THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT.
===== FLOOD WATCH UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING =====
INCREDIBLY HIGH PWATS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH TOP 18Z
SPECIAL SOUNDING RECORDING A PW VALUE JUST BELOW 2". SPC
MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS UPWARDS OF 2.2 INCHES. CAM RUNS THROUGHOUT
TODAY HAVE SHOWN A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR VERY HIGH RAINFALL
FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
CONCERN FOR WIDESPREAD 2-4+ INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE FLOOD
WATCH, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED 6+ INCHES OF RAIN GENERALLY
ALONG HWY 36 AND NORTHWARD. PER THE 12Z HREF LPMM, THERE IS A
GROWING CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS NORTHERN MO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THE FLOOD WATCH RUNS UNTIL 12Z THURSDAY.
===== ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY =====
THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT, AND
WILL AGAIN BE A FOCUS AREA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAMS HAVE CONSISTENTLY SHOWN THE COLD FRONT
LIGHTING UP WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON, LIKELY NOT
UNTIL AFTER 18Z. HI-RES SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW VERY STRONG CAPE
PROFILES FOR TOMORROW, POSSIBLY EXCEEDING SBCAPE EXCEEDING 4000
J/KG. PWATS WILL STILL BE QUITE SATURATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
POSSIBLY NORTH OF 1.8", WHICH WILL AGAIN LEAD TO VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR
TOMORROW, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT ANOTHER TORNADO RISK FOR LATER
TOMORROW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
===== FRIDAY AND SATURDAY =====
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRIDAY AS LOW-AMPLITUDE MID-LEVEL RIDGING
AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. COOL AIR ADVECTION
WILL SUPPORT TEMPS TO PEAK IN THE LOW 80S FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY MORE PLEASANT THAN IN RECENT DAYS,
WITH MAX DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN ON SATURDAY AS A
SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW WILL
BE SITUATED ACROSS ONTARIO, WITH THE BELT OF WESTERLIES OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA, AND TEMPS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S, CAPE PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE.
WITH FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR, THE ENVIRONMENT ON
SATURDAY APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. MULTIPLE
MODELS SHOWCASE SOUNDINGS WITH IMPRESSIVE DRY AIR IN PLACE TO
INCREASE FORECAST DCAPE VALUES, POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 1400 J/KG
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD POSE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED THE
REGION WITH AN AREA OF FOCUS FOR SATURDAY.
===== SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK =====
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY,
LEADING TO LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH OF I-70. OVERALL, A
SLIGHTLY DRIER TREND IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
EAST. WHILE THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK, THE
GREATER CONFIDENCE IS IN THE PLEASANT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS FOR SUN-
TUE ARE MOSTLY IN THE 70S, WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD ALONG A BOUNDARY, AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND SLOWLY
SAG SOUTH INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL CONTINUE
FOR 2-3 HOURS AT EACH TAF SITE ONCE THEY BEGIN, WITH EXTREMELY
GUSTY WINDS (40+ KTS) AND POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER ACCOMPANYING
THEM. WENT TO PREVAILING GROUP INSTEAD OF TEMPO AS CHANCES OF
IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS IS GREATER THAN 50%. THUNDER WILL BE
AT LEAST IN THE VICINITY BETWEEN 00-01Z AT KSTJ, BEGINNING AND
ENDING EARLIER THAN OTHER TAF SITES.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15KTS OVERNIGHT AND GUSTS AGAIN TO 25-30+ KTS
LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOZ002>008-011>017-
020>025.
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KSZ025-102.
SHORT TERM...PADGETT
LONG TERM...PADGETT
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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