023
FXUS63 KEAX 241140
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
540 AM CST MON FEB 24 2020
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON FEB 24 2020
RAIN WORKING UP FROM THE SOUTH WAS FINALLY ABLE TO OVERCOME DRY AIR
IN THE LOWER LEVELS LATE LAST NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT, AND AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PROGRESSED AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE FALLEN SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE MANY LOCATIONS HAVE
SEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL AS OF 3 AM...WITH RAIN
STILL FALLING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE THIS SWATH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS DEPICTED WELL ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
THE SURFACE LOW, CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL KS/OK BORDER
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL
PREVENT RAIN FROM SPREADING TOO MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND KEEP THE DRY
SLOT AT BAY. THE RESULT WILL BE THAT MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSOURI COULD
SEE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND OFF-AND-ON INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST BY
THIS EVENING. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW. IF
TEMPERATURES CAN DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THIS MORNING, LIGHT RAIN COULD CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR A
RAIN-SNOW MIX BRIEFLY BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE
FREEZING LATER THIS MORNING.
THE CURRENT SYSTEM IS THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO IMPACT
THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SECOND TROUGH
ALREADY DIVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS THE FIRST TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY
MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WHILE THIS FIRST SYSTEM WAS LACKING COLD AIR, THIS
NEXT TROUGH WILL BRING A MORE POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR AND THE
OVERALL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM AND AS THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS TONIGHT
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND CHANGING BACK OVER TO RAIN
SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE LIGHT WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ANTICIPATED FOR ALL BUT NORTH-
CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL. SNOW RETURNS
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND AN
ADDITIONAL DUSTING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS WEEK AS COLD AIR PUSHES IN
BEHIND THE SECOND SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH
BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY DAY. THURSDAY MORNING
WILL ALSO BE QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE
TEENS AND 20S BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY AFTERNOON.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK WILL REMAIN UNDER COOL NORTHWEST
FLOW BUT LOOKS TO WARM-UP BY THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST MON FEB 24 2020
LIGHT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WHILE MUCH OF THE LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH
AS THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN PERIOD IN
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PIETRYCHAP
AVIATION...PIETRYCHAP
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