980  
FXUS63 KEAX 261100  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
600 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019  
 
A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY GOING  
THROUGH THE AREA ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE  
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY  
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S DESPITE SOME WAA MOVING INTO  
THE REGION. IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE DOES BREAK OUT IN THE AFTERNOON IT  
COULD SLIP INTO THE 60S DOWNTOWN AND FURTHER SOUTH ALONG CENTRAL  
KS/MO BORDER. RIDGING AND UPPER STRONG WAA WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA  
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW AND INCREASING IN THE  
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 35MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO QUICKLY WARM  
UP TO NEAR 70S DEGREES AND EASILY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO  
FAR. DUE TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES NEAR 40 PERCENT THERE  
COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE AFTERNOON IN COMBINATION  
WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO FLATTEN OUT AS A SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH EXITS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP  
DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL KS WHICH WILL INITIATE  
SOME SCATTERED ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENTUALLY SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE  
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE  
TROUGH WILL INCREASE LIFT ALONG A SEMI-STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A DECENT LLJ,  
AMPLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT, AND HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER 1" WILL  
LEAD TO A POSSIBLE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO ALONG THIS  
BOUNDARY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE POSSIBLE ELEVATED CONVECTION AND  
TRAINING STORMS WITH THE STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.  
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AROUND 2" OF RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI  
AND UNFORTUNATELY MOSTLY OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN. THIS COULD  
LEAD TO RIVER LEVELS RISING BACK UP TO MODERATE OR EVEN MAJOR FLOOD  
STAGES BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. DUE TO THIS HAVING A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT  
TO IT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WHERE THE QPF MAXIMUM WILL  
BE GOING INTO THE EVENT TO KEEP RIVER FORECASTS ACCURATE GOING INTO  
THE WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT  
EASTWARD SATURDAY LEAVING BEHIND A FLOW OF COLDER AIR AND WELL BELOW  
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS. SOME RAIN SNOW MIX  
CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY MORNING EITHER.  
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH  
MONDAY KEEPING US RATHER COOL FOR THE END OF MARCH AND BEGINNING OF  
APRIL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019  
 
SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER HAS CAUSED A FEW TERMINALS  
TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. THIS REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL  
BE SHORT LIVED AS IT WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER THE SUNRISE. VFR  
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A  
LOW VFR CEILING MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AN LASTING  
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN  
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BARHAM  
AVIATION...BARHAM  
 
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