495
FXUS63 KEAX 241937
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
137 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEK
- LIGHT RAIN CHANCES 30-40 TOMORROW NIGHT
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE SUNDAY/MONDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
THE EVENING, A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL FORCE A WEAK A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE CWA. OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA
BRINGING A SEASONABLY COOL START TO THE DAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW.
THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WHERE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GET GOING EARLIER IN
THE AFTERNOON RANGING TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
CWA WHERE WAA NEVER GETS UNDERWAY. TOMORROW NIGHT, A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FORCING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL BE MEAGER WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER,
A 30-40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR A LIGHT MIX/SNOW ACROSS THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN CWA WHERE A VERY LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE WEAK MIXING BUT COPIOUS
SUNSHINE WILL AID IN HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FRIDAY AS MODEST WAA
GETS UNDERWAY UNDER QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THIS WILL DRIVE HIGHS
INTO THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. FRIDAY NIGHT, A UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL FORCE ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO
NEAR 70 SOUTH WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
THROUGH THE WEEK. BY SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY WILL SETTLE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH THE GFS
AND EC PRODUCE A 700MB SHORTWAVE THAT APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY AS
A LLJ OVERRIDES THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF AREA PUMPING MOISTURE INTO
COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE CWA. THIS IS PRODUCING A 30-50% CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. P-TYPE WITH THIS
SETUP IS QUESTIONABLE AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND JUST SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
HERE. HOWEVER, FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND NORTH, THE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW FREEZING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP WARM NOSE MAY BE IN PLACE WHICH COULD
PRODUCE MIXED PRECIPITATION IF THAT DOES COME TO FRUITION.
CONSEQUENTLY, THIS TIME PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PD WITH BKN-OVC HIGH CLOUDS FCST
THRU THIS TAF CYCLE. THE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
AVIATORS AS GUSTY SW WINDS TO AROUND 25KTS ARE EXPECTED THRU
22Z-23Z AFT WHICH WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W/WNW AND DIMINISH TO
5-10KTS. WINDS WILL CONT TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY 01Z WHILE
REMAINING BTN 3-8KTS BEFORE BECMG ENE BTN 5-10KTS LATE IN THE
PD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page