301
FXUS63 KEAX 051723
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1123 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY AND LINGER THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TODAY
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD. STRONG WARM ADVECTION ALOFT
AND WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE 50S ACROSS EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO. THIS WILL BE A
PRECURSOR OF THINGS TO COME FOR SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT PRIOR
TO THAT, ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. THAT FRONT WILL KNOCK A HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
FOR FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 AND WEST I-
35, WHERE HIGHS COULD BE 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THROUGH, BUT THE
FRONT SEEMS LIKELY TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY IN MORNING, AND THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. COOLER, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL,
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY - TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SPREADS EASTWARD,
WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOWER AND MID-LEVELS. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER, AND THE ADDITION OF SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN, WILL COOL TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FOR TUESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH NOW A ROUGHLY 30-
50% CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE SOUTH OF I-70. THIS WILL BE A RESULT
OF THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO
THE AREA AND INTERACTS WITH DEEPER AND RICHER MOISTURE THAT HAD
ADVECTED NORTHWARD IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM THE
PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE ACTIVE LATER
NEXT WEEK AS BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A LARGE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR WINTRY WEATHER RETURNING TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
GFS MOVES PRECIPITATION OVER THE 540DAM, 1000-500MB THICKNESS
LINE AND HAS SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ALOFT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO BRINGS LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK TO NORTHERN MO, PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR
THE DETERMINISTIC GFS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS. DIURNAL MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS, BEFORE FALLING OFF PROGRESSING INTO THE EVENING.
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE A PASSING COLD FRONT TOMORROW MORNING,
WHICH WILL GENERATE GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS ACROSS TERMINALS GOING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, LOOKING AT THE REINTRODUCTION
OF SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING CHANGES TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...SPG
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