005
FXUS63 KEAX 221738
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1138 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
WITH RECORD HIGHS IN JEOPARDY ON THURSDAY.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.
- FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN RIVER
VALLEYS AND COOLER RURAL LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
WE ARE ON THE CUSP OF A WEATHER PATTERN I LIKE TO CALL RIDGE
CITY -- A BROAD, HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGE CONTROLLING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WEATHER FOR A STREAK OF DAYS. THIS WILL BRING EXCEPTIONAL
WARMTH TO THE CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, WHICH HAS
LONG BEEN ADVERTISED. HOWEVER, AS THE EVENT DRAWS NEARER, THERE
ARE A COUPLE OF FINER-SCALE DETAILS THAT REQUIRE SOME FLESHING
OUT, AND ONE OF THEM WILL BE TRANSPIRING IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MODELS HAVE BEEN PROJECTING A LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S. EARLY THIS WEEK, AND OVER TIME THERE
HAVE BEEN INCREASING HINTS OF ITS INFLUENCE FARTHER AND FARTHER
SOUTH. WE ARE SEEING THIS COME TO FRUITION THIS MORNING, WITH
RETURN FLOW WELL-ESTABLISHED AND A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING TO
OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, AND
WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, PARTICULARLY IN
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
AROUND 30 DEGREES EARLY THIS MORNING, AND MODELS APPEAR MUCH TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN SATURATING THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. THUS, A CLOUD
DECK IS ABOUT ALL I EXPECT FROM THE WEAK ASCENT GLANCING OUR
REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE PERTURBATION TODAY. HOWEVER, THIS MAY
CURTAIL THE STRENGTH OF THE WARMING FORECAST BY A MAJORITY OF
THE MODEL SUITE TODAY, AND I AM WONDERING IF HIGHS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S MAY BE A LITTLE TOO OPTIMISTIC. WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TODAY, AS IT MAY TURN OUT THIS WILL BE A DAY
WHERE TEMPERATURES END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW CONSENSUS, DESPITE
THE PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE VORT MAX.
THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH THE
STEADY SOUTH BREEZE DIMINISHING AND VEERING TO A MORE EASTERLY
DIRECTION BY TOMORROW. WITH THE WARM ADVECTION TODAY FOLLOWED BY
RATHER WEAK/NEBULOUS SURFACE FLOW TONIGHT, LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD
BE WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE WARM
ADVECTION CEASES, SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS WELL (WHICH
MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS MID-AFTERNOON TODAY). THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SOME FOG POTENTIAL. HREF PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY
BELOW A HALF MILE ARE VERY HIGH FOR ALMOST 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE
(60-80 PERCENT) IN MUCH OF THE CWA. OTHER GUIDANCE IS LESS
ENTHUSED (NBM HAS PROBABILITIES GENERALLY LOWER THAN 20 PERCENT
FOR <1 MI VISIBILITY). MY EXPERIENCE WITH THESE TYPES OF
SCENARIOS IS THAT IT IS ENTIRELY DEPENDENT ON THE PASSAGE OF THE
VORT MAX. IF THE VORT MAX IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE REGION, FOG
TENDS TO BE VERY UNLIKELY TO MATERIALIZE EXTENSIVELY. IN
TONIGHT'S SCENARIO, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE PERTURBATION IS
EXPECTED TO BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA, AND GIVEN THE SURFACE
SADDLE POINT OF PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS (CORRESPONDING TO A WEAK
OR NEARLY NONEXISTENT PRESSURE GRADIENT), THIS LOOKS PRETTY
FAVORABLE FOR FOG. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION IN THE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE, AND I SUSPECT THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO GET MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH COVERAGE/EXTENT WORDING LATER TODAY.
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
ANOMALOUSLY WARM FOR OUR REGION, BUT THERE ARE SOME QUESTION
MARKS REMAINING WITH JUST HOW WARM, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE APPEARS TO DEVELOP ANOTHER EXTENSIVE CLOUD DECK TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS APPEARS TO
BE TIED TO A REGION OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION EJECTING FROM THE WESTERN U.S. DURING
THIS PERIOD. THESE CLOUD DECKS TEND TO BE RATHER STUBBORN, SO IT
IS QUITE POSSIBLE DIURNAL HEATING IS MUTED CONSIDERABLY ON
WEDNESDAY, AND THE WARMING WILL ALMOST ENTIRELY BE A RESULT OF
THE WARM ADVECTION. HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE ASSURED FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, BUT IT MAY BE RATHER CHALLENGING TO HIT 70 IF OVERCAST
CONDITIONS REFUSE TO GIVE WAY.
HOWEVER, THURSDAY'S WARMTH LOOKS MORE AND MORE IMPRESSIVE, AS
THE PATTERN IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR MORE SUNSHINE, AND THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE REGION. RECORD HIGHS LOOK
TO BE IN SERIOUS JEOPARDY FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
THE FORECAST AFTER THURSDAY CONTINUES TO POSE SOME CHALLENGES.
MODELS HAVE WOBBLED RATHER SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S. MOST MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARD LESS COOLING FOLLOWING ITS PASSAGE THROUGH
THE REGION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE
60S VERSUS THE COOLER 50S THAT CONSENSUS WAS DEPICTING FROM
YESTERDAY'S RUNS), BUT CONFIDENCE SEEMS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY OBSERVED FOR THIS PERIOD. IT DOES APPEAR
THAT THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. THIS
COMING WEEKEND WILL BE STRONG BUT VERY PROGRESSIVE, WHICH MEANS
WE MIGHT EXPECT MORE OF A WIND EVENT THAN A PRECIPITATION EVENT
IN THIS PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. INDEED, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
THAT BECOMES ESTABLISHED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY BE QUITE
STRONG GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPSTREAM HIGH. BY SUNDAY, THE
70S OF CHRISTMAS DAY MAY BE A LONG-DISTANT MEMORY AS HIGHS
RETURN TO REASONABLE...THAT IS TO SAY SEASONAL. HOWEVER, UPPER
RIDGING TO OUR IMMEDIATE WEST AND SOUTHWEST NEVER REALLY GOES
AWAY, SO THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY WARMER THAN
AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE YEAR. AS MENTIONED IN YESTERDAY
MORNING'S DISCUSSION, THE OVERALL PATTERN IN THE U.S. ALSO DOES
CONTINUE TO LOOK MORE ACTIVE ON NEW YEAR'S WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST MON DEC 22 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WITH A STRATUS DECK
LINGERING OVER THE AREA. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY GUSTING TO 18-20 KTS
OUT OF THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN
TO VFR AS THE STATUS DECK CONTINUES TO THIN OUT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES, SETTING THE STAGE FOR FOG TOMORROW
MORNING. FOR NOW, WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG WITH POCKETS OF DENSE FOG
ARE EXPECTED. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREAS SEEM TO BE SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KIRKSVILLE TO THE KC METRO. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE
IN EXACT LOCATION, KEPT 3-4SM FOR VISIBILITY IN THE TAFS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 220 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 24:
KMCI: 72/2021
KSTJ: 69/2021
DECEMBER 25:
KMCI: 67/1922
KSTJ: 65/2019
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 25:
KMCI: 53/1936
KSTJ: 51/1936
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CMS
AVIATION...COLLIER
CLIMATE...CMS
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