979
FXUS63 KEAX 071019
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
419 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY.
- SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOMORROW,
WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS OVERLAID WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
LONGWAVE AND RELATIVELY HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS DOWNSTREAM
OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. MEANWHILE, OUR CWA REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
TROUGHING TO THE EAST AND THE RIDGING TO THE WEST, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, 1030+ MB
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED IN OVER WISCONSIN, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO OUR CWA, RESULTING IN CLEAR
SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND
30 DEGREES AS OF 3 AM. THE MID/UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION AT 850 MB,
ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY.
TEMPERATURES OVERPERFORMED MODEL GUIDANCE YESTERDAY, AND THINK
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THEY OVERPERFORM AGAIN TODAY. THUS,
HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP JUST A BIT ABOVE NBM GUIDANCE. THERE SHOULD
BE A PRETTY SIZABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA TODAY, WITH
HIGHS ONLY REACHING AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS NE MISSOURI, BUT
TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE MID 50S SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE KC
METRO. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG WITH SOME MODEST MOISTURE RETURN OUT AHEAD OF A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AND INTENSIFIES INTO MONDAY AS THE
PREVIOUSLY MOSTLY STATIONARY CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA FINALLY STARTS TO MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS
INTO NW MEXICO, YIELDING HIGHER AMPLIFIED RIDGING INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA. THE CURRENT
FORECAST CALLS FOR MONDAY MAX TS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS (NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE FOR MAXT AT MCI IS
67 AND 70 DEGREES, RESPECTIVELY), WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LOCATIONS (PRIMARILY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF KANSAS CITY) TO
REACH THE LOWER 70S. THE RECORD HIGH AT MCI FOR MONDAY IS 72,
WHICH REMAINS ABOVE THE CURRENT NBM 75TH PERCENTILE.
BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A MID/UPPER TROUGH IS
PROJECTED TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE CANADIAN PLAINS AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT TOWARD OUR CWA, AND MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE A BIT ON
WHEN THIS FRONT WILL ENTER AND TRAVEL THROUGH THE CWA. THIS
UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE FOR
TUESDAY MAXT AT MCI, WHICH IS CURRENTLY 54 AND 66 DEGREES,
RESPECTIVELY. IT WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR NOW, THE FORECAST
SHOWS CHANCE POPS (30 TO 50 PERCENT) FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD THAT ANY ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL REMAINS BELOW 0.25". THIS FRONT SHOULD BE COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE REGION BY NO LATER THAN TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
(ALTHOUGH THERE EXISTS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONG THE 25TH AND
75TH PERCENTILE FOR TEMPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY). AS OF NOW,
IT SEEMS LIKE THERE MAY BE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER LINGERING
OVER THE REGION FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH CHANCE POPS (30
PERCENT) FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN SHIFT
THROUGH EAST TO SE AFTER SUNRISE AND ACCELERATE THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME ISOLATED GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...PESEL
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