053
FXUS63 KEAX 251758
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1258 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY.
- 10-20% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS THE CWA RESIDES ON THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE, WITH LONGWAVE
TROUGHING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTH OF
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE CHICAGOLAND AREA, YIELDING LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
CWA. PLEASANT CONDITIONS ABOUND ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN THIS
MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM RANGING FORM THE MID 60S
TO UPPER 60S. AFTER A COUPLE DAYS OF COOLER TEMPERATURES,
AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
EVEN THE LOWER 90S (MID 80S ACROSS NE MISSOURI), WITH MOISTURE
ALSO RECOVERING AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, STRENGTHENING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE
A FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS, INTERCEPTING A MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY
LATER. THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA BY AROUND 4 PM TODAY, WITH THIS CONVECTION LIKELY
GROWING UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS OR AN MCS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SEVERE WINDS AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HOWEVER, CAMS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WEST WITH THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AND IT NOW SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY THAT
SEVERE STORMS COULD REACH OUR CWA TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SPC FOR NOW
HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK ACROSS NW KANSAS INTO FAR NW
MISSOURI, AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CAM TRENDS. CONVECTION
MAY REIGNITE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST BUT LIKELY DISSIPATING BEFORE ENTERING INTO OUR
CWA. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD HELP IGNITE
STORMS TODAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD MOVE NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG THE FRONT BY
MID AFTERNOON TOWARD THE OZARKS PLATEAU, AND SPC HAS PLACED
BUTLER TO MOBERLY AND POINTS EAST INTO A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
ALSO, DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH DEW POINTS
LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MID THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES MAY INCREASE A COUPLE DEGREES ON FRIDAY, BUT
HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE. BY THIS WEEKEND,
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO DRIFT FURTHER EAST AS AN
UPPER TROUGH COMES ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST (AND WILL
ALSO FLATTEN OUT THE RIDGE). THIS SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASED MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS AND WARMER 850 TEMPS, TRANSLATING TO SURFACE HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR SATURDAY AND INTO THE
MID TO PERHAPS EVEN THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY. MOISTURE RETURN
WILL ALSO INCREASE DEW POINTS, AND ACCORDINGLY, HEAT INDICES,
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 100 F BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
SOUTHERN TERMINALS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOG
IS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN TERMINALS INCLUDING KSTJ AND
VISIBILITY HAS A 25% CHANCE OF DROPPING TO LESS THAN 1 MILE
AROUND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST UNTIL LATE
MORNING WHEN WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...IPC
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