023  
FXUS63 KEAX 241140  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
540 AM CST MON FEB 24 2020  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 349 AM CST MON FEB 24 2020  
 
RAIN WORKING UP FROM THE SOUTH WAS FINALLY ABLE TO OVERCOME DRY AIR  
IN THE LOWER LEVELS LATE LAST NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN THEN  
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA  
OVERNIGHT, AND AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING HAS PROGRESSED AS FAR  
NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
HAVE FALLEN SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE MANY LOCATIONS HAVE  
SEEN A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL AS OF 3 AM...WITH RAIN  
STILL FALLING. THE BACK EDGE OF THE THIS SWATH OF WIDESPREAD RAIN  
IS DEPICTED WELL ON REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC AS THE DRY SLOT WORKS  
INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.  
 
THE SURFACE LOW, CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE CENTRAL KS/OK BORDER  
WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL  
PREVENT RAIN FROM SPREADING TOO MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND KEEP THE DRY  
SLOT AT BAY. THE RESULT WILL BE THAT MUCH OF CENTRAL MISSOURI COULD  
SEE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING AND OFF-AND-ON INTO THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST BY  
THIS EVENING. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO HEAR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER  
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL THUNDER CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW. IF  
TEMPERATURES CAN DROP SEVERAL MORE DEGREES OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI  
THIS MORNING, LIGHT RAIN COULD CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW OR A  
RAIN-SNOW MIX BRIEFLY BEFORE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE  
FREEZING LATER THIS MORNING.  
 
THE CURRENT SYSTEM IS THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO IMPACT  
THE REGION THIS WEEK WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE SECOND TROUGH  
ALREADY DIVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS THE FIRST TROUGH  
MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY  
MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF  
PRECIPITATION. WHILE THIS FIRST SYSTEM WAS LACKING COLD AIR, THIS  
NEXT TROUGH WILL BRING A MORE POTENT SHOT OF COLD AIR AND THE  
OVERALL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME  
LIGHT SNOWFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS  
SYSTEM AND AS THE NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL  
SUPPORT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN AS EARLY AS TONIGHT  
WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING FOR  
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA AND CHANGING BACK OVER TO RAIN  
SHOWERS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL  
BE LIGHT WITH JUST A LIGHT DUSTING ANTICIPATED FOR ALL BUT NORTH-  
CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE AN INCH OR TWO COULD FALL. SNOW RETURNS  
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND AN  
ADDITIONAL DUSTING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.  
 
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY THIS WEEK AS COLD AIR PUSHES IN  
BEHIND THE SECOND SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S COMBINED WITH  
BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER CHILLY DAY. THURSDAY MORNING  
WILL ALSO BE QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OUT IN THE  
TEENS AND 20S BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY AFTERNOON.  
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK WILL REMAIN UNDER COOL NORTHWEST  
FLOW BUT LOOKS TO WARM-UP BY THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS  
OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND INTO THE PLAINS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST MON FEB 24 2020  
 
LIGHT RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE EARLY IN THE PERIOD  
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS.  
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN THE  
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WHILE MUCH OF THE LIGHTNING  
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS THERE IS THE  
POSSIBILITY THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MAY MAKE IT AS FAR NORTH  
AS THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WILL  
CONTINUE TO BOUNCE AROUND BETWEEN VFR/MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN PERIOD IN  
THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...PIETRYCHAP  
AVIATION...PIETRYCHAP  
 
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