242
FXUS63 KEAX 301115
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
615 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON - TONIGHT.
- DRIER WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST, COUPLED WITH BROAD UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, IS SETTING UP A STEADY SOUTHERLY
FETCH OF MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS ONGOING AT 07Z FROM WESTERN TEXAS
INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN AND IN THE
VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION. A
LARGE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH ARKANSAS AND SOUTHERN
MISSOURI IS SPREADING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THIS MCS
SHIFTS EAST THIS MORNING, THE NORTHERN PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH IT, GENERALLY STAYING SOUTH OF I-70 THIS
MORNING. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS THIS IS OCCURRING, THE
REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET.
THIS WILL LEAD TO STRONGER ASCENT AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL BE
LIMITED THROUGH THE DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA BUT ENOUGH
INSTABILITY MAY BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THAT A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LOOK
POSSIBLE. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY EVENING, WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS A
RESULT.
FRIDAY, A CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER QUICK SHOT
OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME STORMS TO THE AREA. INSTABILITY LOOKS
LIMITED SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. BUT WITH WET-BULB
ZERO TEMPERATURES NEAR 6000 FT, WITH SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO GET SOME SMALL HAIL OUT OF ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP.
QUIETER AND DRIER WEATHER MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES LOOK
GENERALLY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SATURDAY
AND THE LOW TO MID 70S ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED APR 30 2025
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR ONSET OF LOWER CEILINGS. THE TREND
SHOULD BE FOR CEILINGS TO LOWER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LOW
CLOUDS SHIFT NORTH. HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FROM ONGOING CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE REGION INHIBITS TRACKING THIS NORTHWARD MOVEMENT.
GENERALLY HAVE CEILINGS FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY BETWEEN
14Z AND 15Z. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO NOT GREAT WITH REGARDS TO
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED -TSRA TO A
PROB30 GROUP BETWEEN 19-20Z THROUGH 23-00Z. IT'S POSSIBLE THIS
ACTIVITY IS JUST SHOWERS THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
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