307
FXUS63 KEAX 182340
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
540 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ENDING
AFTER 6PM AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES INCREASE OVERNIGHT
- LIGHT SNOW WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI
THROUGH EARLY EVENING
- FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEEKEND, WARM NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
STRONG PV ANOMALY CONTINUES TO DRIVE A PROMINENT MID AND UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE H5
TROUGH AXIS AS OF 21Z WAS JUST ENTERING THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. THE MAIN SURFACE CYCLONE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVED
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 11-13Z THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT
AND SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH HAS PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA. THIS ALLOWED FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
NARROW CORRIDOR OF SUBSIDENCE THAT CLEARED SKIES OUT, LEADING TO DRY
AND WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THE DROP IN RH LED TO THE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN WITH ANOTHER SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH. THE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY WITH THIS BOUNDARY,
WHICH WILL PUSH IN MORE COLD AIR, BUT SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS
BEHIND THIS. THIS HAS BEEN GENERATING CONVERGENCE AND PRODUCING SOME
CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORCE TO SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR NORTH-
CENTRAL MISSOURI, MAINLY NORTH OF HWY. 36 AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.
LOWER STATIC STABILITY IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD MAKE THESE APPEAR
LIKE SNOW BURSTS AT TIMES. BUT THESE SHOULD REMAIN SHORT LIVED AND
RESULT IN LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
STRONG THROUGH THE REST OF EVENING. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE TEENS IN OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES, WITH 20S SOUTHWESTWARD. WIND CHILLS WILL BE
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, ESPECIALLY WITH ELEVATED WIND GUSTS
CONTINUING.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MAIN TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS REGIME. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BOUNCE BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S, WITH
MID 30S IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND, SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS CANADA, AND
WILL PREVENT ANY MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXES FROM AMPLIFYING, LEAVING OUR
AREA IS BRISK ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW. A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL NOT MAINTAIN A CONSISTENT TRACK, WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO BRING FLUCTUATING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH 50S
POSSIBLE SATURDAY, LOWER 40S SUNDAY, THEN BACK TO THE 50S ON MONDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS DRY IN THIS PATTERN, AS THERE WILL NOT BE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT. PERHAPS WITH STRONGER PUSH A CAA FOR A FEW
HOURS, COULD MAYBE SEE SOME SPRINKLE DEVELOPMENT, OR FLURRY
DEVELOPMENT IF THIS HAPPENS OVERNIGHT LOWER IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.
NEXT WEEK, A STRONG PV ANOMALY IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A PROMINENT
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC, AMPLIFYING A RIDGE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS
ALSO INDICATES VERY PROMINENT RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
SEND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEK. UPPER
50S ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT NEXT WEEK, AND THERE IS
SOME SIGNAL FOR CROSSING THE 60F DEGREE MARK. BOX AND WHISKERS PLOTS
OF NBM DATA IS SHOWING DECENT INNER-QUARTILE SPREAD TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THE SIGNALS STILL POINT TO MULTIPLE DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. DURING THIS PATTERN,
THERE IS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY KIND OF LIFT. MOST ENSEMBLE
SUITES THROUGH NEXT WEEK MAINTAIN LESS THAN 10 PERCENT PROBABILITIES
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH WILL BE IF ANY
VORT MAXIMA ARE ABLE TO BREAK AWAY FROM THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, WHICH MAY ALLOW A SHORT-WAVE TO PROVIDE BRIEF PERIODS
OF LIFT THROUGH THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
CLEARING SKIES CONTINUE AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TAF SITES BUT
STILL CLOUD AND VERY SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF SNOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL MO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE TAF SITES,
ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET WITH NW GUST OF 25-38KTS THROUGH 02Z AND
DECREASING 20-30KTS THROUGH 07Z. AFTER 07Z THEN SWITCHING WIND
DIRECTION TO SOUTH BY 18Z WITH 8-14KTS THROUGH THE REMAINING TAF
PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ001>006-
011>015-020>023-028>031-037>039-043>045-053-054.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MOZ007-008-016-
017-024-025-032-033-040-046.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...WFO EAX
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