557
FXUS63 KEAX 012336
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
536 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN KS AND
NORTHERN MO FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR A
WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE WHICH MAY
IMPACT TRAVEL.
- VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
SEVERAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF RAIN. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT FLOODING MAY BE
POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
ABBREVIATED DISCUSSION TODAY WITH ACTIVE
WEATHER BUILDING INTO THE REGION. AS OF 17Z, BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KS ON LEADING
EDGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS INCREASING WARM
AIR HAS LEAD TO STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND HAVE ADDED
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A
LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO BOONVILLE. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED TO 250-
500 J/KG OF CAPE, BUT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME SMALL HAIL
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE DRY AIR IN THE NEAR SURFACE
LAYER WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A MARGINALLY STRONG WIND GUST OF
40-50 MPH WITH STRONGEST UPDRAFTS AS WELL.
AS PRECIPITATION SHIELD BUILDS INTO THE AREA, EXPECT ATMOSPHERE TO
EVAPORATIVELY COOL DOWN TO THE WET BULB. SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50,
EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER TO LARGELY SUPPORT
RAIN, BUT FARTHER NORTH, THE WARM NOSE BETWEEN 800-900 IS LESS
PRONOUNCED AND EXPECT THE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE TO
EVAPORATIVELY COOL DOWN TO SNOW. PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
KC METRO ARE CURRENT IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S F, SO AS
PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS TO SNOW, EXPECT SURFACES TO COOL BUT SNOW
TO LARGELY MELT ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE (UNLESS THE INTENSITY
BRIEFLY OVERWHELMS THE MELTING PROCESS). GIVEN THE WARM CONDITIONS
AS OF LATE, THE GROUND SHOULD INSULATE SUFFICIENTLY MINIMIZING WINTER
WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WANES TOWARDS 06Z MONDAY AS ATMOSPHERE DRIES
OUT FROM ALOFT, THOUGH DEEP SATURATED LAYER REMAINS IN THE NEAR
SURFACE. WEAK LIFT REMAINS IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER THROUGH THE
SATURATED LAYER, SO COULD SEE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE ON MONDAY MORNING.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION, EXPECT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
TO BOTTOM OUT THIS EVENING, AND THEN INCH UP A DEGREE OR TWO
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AT OR
ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AT MIDNIGHT, FREEZING
DRIZZLE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED LARGELY NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AND BE CONFINED TO UNTREATED SURFACES THAT CAN
RAPIDLY COOL LIKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. LIFT THROUGH THE SATURATED
LAYER CONTINUES TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY, AND MAY SEE
THE DRIZZLE TEMPORARILY PAUSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS; HOWEVER,
A RENEWED RAIN THREAT IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT
INCREASES AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ZIPPING ACROSS IN ZONAL FLOW.
WITH FOCUS ON ACTIVE SHORT TERM, HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST, BUT WILL INCLUDE THE PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST
DISCUSSION BELOW.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE THE NAME OF THE GAME THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
RECURRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. TUESDAY MORNING, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA. AROUND
THE SAME TIME, A STATIONARY BOUNDARY PARKED TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-70
BEFORE THE FRONT RETREATS BACK TO THE SOUTH. LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA WILL BE SUPPORTED BY WIDESPREAD WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY, A LARGER, POSITIVELY-TILTED MID-
LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO INTRODUCE A LONG BAND OF VORTICITY REACHING FROM
NORTHERN IOWA INTO TEXAS. IT IS THIS SYSTEM THAT MAY BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO PARTS OF ARKANSAS, OKLAHOMA, AND
TEXAS. CURRENTLY, THERE IS VERY LITTLE TO SUGGEST ANYTHING OF THE
SORT IN OUR AREA; I WOULDN'T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION, PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS
LIMITED AT THIS TIME AS WE LOOK PRETTY FIRMLY CAPPED. THIS SHOULD BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS, AS SHOULD OTHER ADDITIONAL
LATE-WEEK PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT WILL BE BROUGHT THROUGH BY YET
UNMENTIONED MID-LEVEL WAVES. BETWEEN TUESDAY MORNING AND SATURDAY
NIGHT, WE COULD EXCEED KANSAS CITY'S MONTHLY PRECIPITATION NORMAL
FOR MARCH IN JUST A MATTER OF DAYS, SO DEFINITELY AN EXTENDED
FORECAST TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ALL CONSISTENT IN HOLDING IN SOME STRENGTH
OF WARM NOSE THROUGH THE PRECIPITATION PERIOD AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING
WHICH SHOULD KEEP PCPN ALL LIQUID. AFTER 05Z, WE LOSE ICE
CRYSTALS IN THE DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE WITH A SLUG OF
SHALLOW MOISTURE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A PD OF DRIZZLE BTN
05Z-11Z BEFORE CONDS DRY OUT. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
DROP TO MVFR BTN 1-2KFT SHORTLY AFT TAF ISSUANCE AND BECOME IFR
AFT 03Z-05Z THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PD. LGT PCPN AND FOG
WILL KEEP VIS BTN 5-6SM WITH LGT FOG PERSISTING AFT PCPN ENDS AT
11Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MOZ001>005-
011>014-020>022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR MOZ006>008-
015>017-023>025-032-033.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ025-102.
DISCUSSION...73/BT
AVIATION...73
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