679
FXUS63 KEAX 292317
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
517 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION AND CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS REACHING -15
F SATURDAY MORNING.
- LIGHT SNOW EVENTS POSSIBLE TOMORROW, SUNDAY, AND TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS HAS PLACED
THE AREA UNDER CONTINUOUS NORTHWEST FLOW. A WEAK FRONTOGENETIC
BAND HAS RESULTED IN A FEW FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE BEST FORCING IS
OUTRUNNING THE LOW-LEVEL SATURATION, SO COVERAGE WILL BECOME
EVEN MORE MINIMAL THAN IT ALREADY IS AS THE BAND DRIFTS
SOUTHEAST. OVERCAST SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE COMBATED
TYPICAL DIURNAL HEATING CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN STEADY IN
THE MID-20S THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO SINK
SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING.
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BEGIN TO
CLEAR ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MO RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES FALLING
TO NEAR 0F TONIGHT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FALLING TO THE
MID-TO-UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
TOMORROW BRINGS ANOTHER SETUP FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, HOWEVER, THE BETTER MOISTURE THROUGH THE DGZ
REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA, SO AM NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN
FLURRIES, IF EVEN THAT. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW A 10-20%
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL (0.1") ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KS.
A SHORTWAVE BRINGS AN UPPER-LEVEL COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, PUSHING ALL REMAINING MOISTURE OUT OF THE
AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS LEADING TO BROAD SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA.
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP NEAR AND BELOW 0F AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE IN THE -10 TO -15F RANGE SATURDAY MORNING WITH HREF AND
LREF GUIDANCE SHOWING A 20-40% CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS BELOW
-15F. WINDS WILL FLIP TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE HIGH MOVES
OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO REBOUND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE PEAK OF THE PACIFIC RIDGE ON
SATURDAY AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY.
CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN THE LEE OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES EARLY
SATURDAY AND A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. WHILE THERE IS AMPLE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR SOME
SNOW SHOWERS TO FORM, THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 40-50%
CHANCE OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER WHERE THERE IS A
30-40% CHANCE OF 0.5" OF SNOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES EARLY
NEXT WEEK THOUGH THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE SAME NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN, OPENING THE DOOR FOR CONTINUED ROUNDS OF
SHORTWAVES. BOTH ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE DEPICT A
SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS IN
THE FRONT HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AND THE ABILITY FOR GULF MOISTURE TO
ADVECT THIS FAR NORTH. AT THIS TIME, IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE
FREEZING LINE WILL BE SET UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE AREA, SO THIS IS
A TIME FRAME TO KEEP AN EYE ON INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS. WINDS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 TO
15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20+ KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS AROUND
A 10 TO 20 PERCENT OF SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS
AVIATION...CMS
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