274
FXUS63 KEAX 231058
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
558 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
OVERVIEW:
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG A WARM FRONT SITUATED NEAR I-70 THAT WILL LIFT NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. SUNDAY WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST IF I-35 AND THE KC METRO HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AGAIN ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID-WEEK.
SATURDAY:
OVERNIGHT A STRENGTHENING 850 JET HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS
AND MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS MAINLY CLIPPED FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THAT AREA THROUGH MID
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN BY MID MORNING THE THE LOW LEVEL
JET WEAKENS.
WE WILL SEE SOME DRY TIME TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 60S AS A WARM FRONT DRIFTS NORTH. MOISTURE WILL BE
SURGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON AS AN
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS AND NOSES INTO
WESTERN MISSOURI. AMPLE MU CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE WARM FRONT ALLOWING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED SB CAPE, EXPECT
STORM ACTIVITY TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, BUT WITH STOUT MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE, STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL OR STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. THE WARM
FRONT AND STORMS WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT, MOVING INTO IOWA AND
ILLINOIS BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE ANOTHER BREAK IN ACTIVITY, BUT A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS
APPROACHING FRONT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN A BIT FASTER
WITH THE FRONTS TIMING ON SUNDAY SO ONLY THE FAR EAST CWA MAY SEE
ANY IMPACTS. WITH DAY TIME HEATING, EXPECT STORMS TO IGNITE ALONG
THE FRONT EAST OF I- 35 AND WELL EAST OF THE KC METRO. STORMS WILL
DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI,
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINE OF STRONG STORMS BY THE EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, ESPECIALLY AS STORMS
BECOME MORE WIDE SPREAD. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS
INDIVIDUAL STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THOSE IN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.
THE WORKWEEK:
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE EARLY PARTS OF
THE WEEK. MONDAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES AS
WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 REACHING 60 DEGREES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY THE
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TUESDAY WITH MOST SEEING THE MID 60S AND SOME LOCATIONS
REACHING THE LOW 70S. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL
SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BEHIND THE
FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS LOOK
TO REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR MOST THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO THE FIRST
FREEZE IN THE KC METRO SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL NOVEMBER.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND
SPREAD NORTH. LATER TODAY EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE NORTH AND SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 AND STJ IS THE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY
ANY STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER IN NORTHERN MISSOURI
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES TOWARD THE AREA, ALSO
EXPECT WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP AT FL020 AROUND 40 KNOTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...HB
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