624
FXUS63 KEAX 302302
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
502 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT, UP TO DUSTING
* BITTER COLD TONIGHT, LOWS AROUND ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS FALLING TO
AROUND -10 DEG F
* SNOW CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY, BEST
CHANCES OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
- CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE, BUT CHANCES FOR 1/2" OR GREAT <15%
* ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INT WEDNESDAY
- FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT BEST CHANCES S AND W
MISSOURI
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 206 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
ASIDE FROM THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES (NORMALS MID-UPPER
30S) TODAY, NOT A WHOLE LOT TO WRITE HOME ABOUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO CLEARLY DEPICT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ASIDE FROM HELPING
ADVECT IN REINFORCING COLD AIR, IT HAS ALSO TRIED TO SQUEEZE OUT
SNOW. CURRENT RADAR DEPICTS RETURNS FROM SW MISSOURI ANGLED BACK TO
THE WNW/NW THROUGH KANSAS AND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
CORRESPONDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO TEND TO SHOW THAT A NUMBER OF
AREAS UNDERNEATH THESE RADAR RETURNS ARE RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW,
MOSTLY >4MI VISIBILITIES. TRAJECTORY OF THIS SHORTWAVE AND RADAR
FEATURES WILL KEEP VAST MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY AWAY FROM THE
AREA. A SECONDARY BAND OF CLOUDS CONTINUES TO DROP OUT OF
IOWA/NEBRASKA AND INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI, BUT FURTHER LACKS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE DEPTH TO SQUEEZE WIDESPREAD FLURRIES IN THE
TRADITIONAL SENSE. VISIBLE SATELLITE/RADAR/MODEL SOUNDINGS ALL
SUGGEST OR DEPICT VERY WEAK CONVECTION THAT MAY YIELD SHORT
PERIODS OF FLURRIES. WITHIN THE FORECAST, DO HAVE FLURRIES
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A RESULT. REGARDLESS,
IMPACT/CONSEQUENCES NOT EXPECTED. MORE NOTABLE WILL BE THE
REINFORCING COLD AIR. COMBINED WITH CLEARING SKIES AND EASING
WINDS, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND ZERO ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH NORTHERN AREAS LIKELY TO BE A COUPLE/FEW DEGREES BELOW ZERO
WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA (BUTLER/CLINTON/SEDALIA/ETC) TO
OR JUST ABOVE ZERO. EVEN WITH LIGHT WINDS, THIS MAY PUSH WIND
CHILL VALUES INTO THE -10 TO -15 DEG F RANGE AT TIMES SATURDAY
MORNING.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST GOING FORWARD IS ON THE QUIET SIDE, ALBEIT WITH
MULTIPLE LOW-END OR NUISANCE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THE NEXT OF
WHICH WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH/ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF WIDER (CENTRAL CONUS) MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES. AS HAS
BEEN NOTED BY PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THERE IS BETTER MOISTURE WITH
THIS FEATURE, INCLUDING SOME PERIODS OF AT LEAST MODERATE ISENTROPIC
LIFT, BUT THE STRONG/DEEPER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL BE DISPLACED NORTHWARD. ALL TO
SAY... A LIGHT TO "HEAVY" DUSTING APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT FOR AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. NBM 24-HR SNOW PROBABILITIES REINFORCE
THIS WITH PROBABILITIES OF MEASURABLE (0.1" OR GREATER) UP TO 40-50%
NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDERS WITH NE KANSAS, SE NEBRASKA, AND IOWA.
USING A 1/2" THRESHOLD, NBM PROBABILITIES SUBSTANTIALLY FALL OFF,
GENERALLY <10-15%. WITH LIGHT WINDS, WHATEVER AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT/FLUFFY SIDE WITH ONLY LOW-END/LIMITED TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE
IN AREAS THAT SEE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS. ANY TRAVELERS INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND IOWA ARE LIKELY TO SEE NOMINALLY GREATER ACCUMULATIONS.
THE MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES AND REESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING ARE LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN HALF
OF CWA SUNDAY, WHILE THE EASTERN AREAS MAY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
MONDAY. REGARDLESS, HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S AND 40S RETURN
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE DAYS AHEAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH NORTHERN
STREAM/NORTHWEST MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW. CURRENT GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLE
RUNS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT KEEPING MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION JUST TO
THE S AND E OF THE CWA. DETERMINISTIC/OPERATIONAL GFS IS
STRONGER/MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE EURO WITH REGARDS TO
PRECIPITATION, AND THIS TOO IS REFLECTED WITHIN THEIR RESPECTIVE
ENSEMBLES. GFS TENDS TO HAVE ~50% MEMBERS WITH T OR GREATER
ACCUMULATIONS OVER KIRK/KDMO (EASTERN CWA) WHILE EURO <20% OF
MEMBERS, AND THEN LESS IN BOTH AS YOU WORK BACK WEST ACROSS THE CWA.
TIMING OF THE WAVE AND RESULTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY PLAY THE
LARGEST ROLE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE, WITH FORECAST TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW-MID 30S FOR AREAS WITH THE CURRENT GREATEST POPS. LOTS OF
TIME TO HASH OUT, BUT THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE FROM A QUICK PEEK AT SOUNDINGS. FORTUNATELY
CURRENT MODEL RUNS KEEP QPF LIGHT WITH NORTHWARD ADVECTING MOISTURE
LATE TO THE PARTY (PHASES FURTHER EAST).
VERY QUICK PEEK THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES POISED
TO REBOUND BACK ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
BUT AGAIN SHORT LIVED AS A FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON NORTHERN STREAM
WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW DROP ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PD WITH BKN CLOUDS BTN 3-4KFT
EXPECTED THRU 06Z AFT WHICH CLR SKIES ARE FCST. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF
THE N BTN 10-15KTS THRU 06Z WHEN WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
BUT WKN TO 5-10KTS. AFT 12Z...SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME LGT AND VRB.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...73
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page