056
FXUS63 KEAX 091105
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MO AND
SOUTHEASTERN KS THROUGH 8 AM CDT.
* WARM ON SATURDAY BEFORE A CHANCE (30-50%) OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY; SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
* COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY BEFORE A WARMING TREND HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A 500-HPA ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
LEAVING THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR YESTERDAY'S SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN
BE FOUND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SHORTWAVE HAS ALLOWED SKIES TO BECOME
CLEAR. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS LED TO LIGHT
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE CLEAR SKIES
AND REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS ALLOWED FOR
AREAS OF DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND
SOUTHEASTERN KS. AS SUCH, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MACON MO TO PAOLA KS
UNTIL 8 AM CDT.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING, LEADING TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY IN THE LOW 50S EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE A LACK
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN THE MID-40S), UP TO 500
J/KG OF MUCAPE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MO
THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH
IA AND INTO NORTHERN MO BY 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO OVERCOME THE DRY LOW-LEVELS AND
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CAMS
ALIGN WITH THIS THINKING AND DEPICT SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN MO. THEY REMAIN PRETTY PESSIMISTIC ABOUT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION FORMING THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
OR TWO CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY
EVENING AND ENCOUNTERS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE (DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW-TO-MID 50S), IT WILL BRING CHANCES (30-50%) OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WITH IT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE TIMING BEING IN THE LATE
EVENING, A LACK OF INSTABILITY WILL MITIGATE ANY POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL BE TO OUR WEST WHERE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE BETTER TIMED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. THE DECAYING REMNANTS
OF THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE CWA,
BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PRECIPITATION MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH LOWS INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 50S SATURDAY
NIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES TO A SEASONABLE RANGE ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, HOWEVER, WITH
THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE EXPECTED TO FLATTEN OUT AND EXPAND
EASTWARD BY MONDAY PRODUCING MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE
WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S ON MONDAY AND THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S ON TUESDAY. A
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT AND LOW-END PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (15-20%) TO THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER (LOW-TO-MID 80S) DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT BEFORE WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ONCE AGAIN AND
TEMPERATURES MAKE A RUN AT 90F BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NBM CURRENTLY SHOWS A 40-50% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 90F ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH EVEN HIGHER
PROBABILITIES TO THE WEST OF THE CWA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING, HOWEVER, IT HAS BEEN DISSIPATING OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS. WITH A CONTINUED IMPROVING TREND EXPECTED, OPTED TO
NOT INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN FOR AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH 20 KT
GUSTS EXPECTED AT KSTJ THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, SHIFTING WINDS TO NORTHERLY. A MID-
LEVEL CLOUD DECK SHOULD ALSO BUILD IN LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. LOW END CHANCES (15-30%) FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST THIS EVENING (AS EARLY AS 00Z AT KSTJ,
01Z AT KMCI, KMKC, AND KIXD) AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE CONTINUES TO REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS POINT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS
AVIATION...CAROTHERS
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