309
FXUS63 KEAX 221938
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
238 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
* WEAKENING SHOWERS MAY TRY TO BUILD INTO EASTERN KS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON LEADING INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE OR TWO.
* SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
BROAD 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT SOUTH FROM CANADA AND
IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S AND 50S TO THE NORTHWEST. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.
SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT LEADING TO GOOD
RADIATIVE CONDITIONS. HAVE FORECAST LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE GOOD RADIATIVE CONDITIONS, COULD SEE
PATCHY FOG DEVELOP IN THE RIVER VALLEYS AND DRAINAGE AREAS, THOUGH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL.
ISOTROPIC LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE SHORTS PUSHING EAST,
THOUGH ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE THE FARTHER EAST IT GOES WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. EXPECT THE NET RESULT TO BE INCREASING CLOUDS, AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS EASTERN KS. HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN MO WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS.
RIDGE RIDING SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER BASIN SUNDAY NIGHT. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT NEAR
THE 310K SURFACE MAY LEAD TO SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT. MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC SO
SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH, AND DRY AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL.
WARMER, MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE LONG STANDING UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EAST. A SERIES OF
RIDGE RIDING SHORT WAVES BUILDING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST COULD LEAD
TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MID-WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD
BE SOME FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY DISCIPATE TOWARDS SUNSET.
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT IN THE RIVER VALLIES, SO ADDED
MENTION OF FOG AT KSTJ. ANY FOG SHOULD RAPIDLY BURN OFF TOWARDS
14Z SUNDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT
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