270
FXUS63 KEAX 200449
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1149 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT, MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-70. SOME STORMS COULD
PRODUCE TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
- DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS FORECAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
A HEAT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL THE
REGION, AND FOR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MO AND
SOUTHEAST KS ON TUESDAY.
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IN FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST MO.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM WEST TO EAST NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS
BOUNDARY IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 2.0" AND AN VERY
UNSTABLE, UNCAPPED (BUT ALSO UNSHEARED), SLOW MOVING STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1-2" PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED POCKETS OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE AS RESULT. THE LACK OF SHEAR SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE RISK, BUT GUSTY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE FROM ANY STORM THAT COLLAPSES.
ONCE THE STORMS WIND DOWN TONIGHT, THE EXPANSIVE RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND BACK OVER THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
RETREAT TO THE NE. WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO REACH THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S, MOST EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-110. OPTED TO EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY
TO THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR MONDAY AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
ON TUESDAY, THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO THE WEST AGAIN, BUT VERY
GRADUALLY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO AGAIN PUSH
INTO NORTHERN MO. STORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, IMPACTING PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEAST MO. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK, BUT IT DOES
APPEAR THE MOST FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
AREA IN IOWA. ADDITIONALLY, THE LATE NIGHT TIMING COULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY. IF SEVERE STORMS DO FORM, ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS FRONT NOT REACHING LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER/US 50 UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AGAIN REACH 105-110 TUESDAY AFTERNOON, SO
OPTED TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 7 PM
TUESDAY.
FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGING WILL
FINALLY RETREAT WELL TO OUR WEST, ALLOWING THE REGION TO COME
UNDER A NW FLOW BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE AND
HUMIDITY TO COOL BACK TO MORE COMFORTABLE LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY,
WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME, MCS ACTIVITY MAY IMPACT THE
AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS KEYING IN ON TWO PERIODS, LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW ORGANIZED THESE STORM
COMPLEXES ARE, WE WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
ONE LAST NOTE ON THE FORECAST, MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE
SHIFT TO NW FLOW FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW PLENTIFUL AMOUNTS OF
HIGH-LEVEL WILDFIRE SMOKE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING
TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE SMOKE LOOKS TO STAY SUSPENDED WELL
ABOVE THE GROUND, BUT SKIES WILL BECOME NOTICEABLY HAZY
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS 18Z,
BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS.
CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>039.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MOZ040-
043>046-053-054.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ025-102>105.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR KSZ057-
060.
DISCUSSION...SNYDER
AVIATION...BT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page