116
FXUS63 KEAX 060531
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1131 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
EVER WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES TUESDAY AND LINGER WITH LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER THE COMING DAYS AS A FEW
FRONTS ARE SET TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. TODAY,
MANY LOCATIONS SAW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S, WITH SOME POINTS
MANAGING TO CREEP UP INTO THE LOW AND MID 50S. TOMORROW,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH IN THE MORNING. AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36
COULD SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY,
THOUGH THESE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
EARLY FEBRUARY. SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS MAY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
WITH THIS INITIAL COLD FRONTAL PUSH BEFORE WIDESPREAD CLEARING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS ON THE RANGE OF 10-15 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH.
LEESIDE TROUGHING OFF OF THE ROCKIES WILL DEEPEN LATE FRIDAY AND
BEGIN TO PROPAGATE EAST THE FOLLOWING MORNING. THIS TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS UNLIKELY TO HAVE A NOTABLE IMPACT ON
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AS CURRENT GUIDANCE AGREES
THAT THE WARM FRONT IS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE KS/MO BORDER LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CONSEQUENTLY,
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ON THE COOLER
SIDE BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ENVELOP
THE ENTIRE CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MUCH
WARMER (AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING) TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 MAY BE ABLE TO POKE UP INTO THE LOW
60S ON SUNDAY, BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH WILL LIKELY NEED TO WAIT
UNTIL MONDAY TO SEE 60 DEGREE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY HAS THE GREATEST
RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURE POTENTIAL WITH SOME POINTS POTENTIALLY
NEARING OR REACHING 70 DEGREES, THOUGH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR SUCH
WARMTH REMAIN WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF I-70. FOR PERSPECTIVE,
ROSECRANS MEMORIAL AIRPORT IN ST. JOSEPH HAS A RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURE OF 64F FOR FEB. 9 AND THIS WAS SET BACK IN
1932...CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES OF 65F OR GREATER IN
THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT FOR MONDAY ARE AROUND 55%.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEXT WEEK AS
WE BEGIN TO FALL OUT OF THE RIDGING REGIME AND INTO A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, INTERACTING WITH THE WARMER
AIR MASS FROM THE WEEKEND. THE COMBINATION OF LIFT AND MOISTURE
LOOKS BEST SOUTH OF I-70, SO RAIN POTENTIAL LOOKS GREATEST IN THAT
CORRIDOR. THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, THOUGH PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW. WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
AROUND FREEZING LATE NEXT WEEK, POPS WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AND P-TYPE CONSIDERATIONS MADE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WSW
WINDS. A COLD FRONT WILL DESCEND NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION BY AROUND 11Z TO 12Z FRIDAY MORNING, TURNING WINDS OUT OF
THE NNW WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 12 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS. GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACKEN BY EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH WINDS TURNING MORE NORTHERLY AND BECOMING LIGHT (10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH NO GUSTS) BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MACKO
AVIATION...BMW
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