462
FXUS63 KEAX 311736
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1136 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTER COLD THIS MORNING. AIR TEMPERATURES NEAR ZERO WITH APPARENT
TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -15.
- LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY. LITTLE,
IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EAST OF KANSAS CITY
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN MO. TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO SHIFT THIS
PRECIPITATION CHANCE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
A 1040+ MB SURFACE HIGHS IS SLIDING SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS TRACK IS KEEPING SURFACE WINDS
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED, GENERALLY IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE. THAT LITTLE
BIT OF MIXING WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM PLUMMETING WELL
BELOW ZERO, COMPARED TO IF THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WAS MOVING
OVERHEAD. REGARDLESS, IT'S STILL BITTERLY COLD WITH AIR
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO, AS OF 08Z. EARLY
MORNING LOWS SHOULD FALL TO NEAR ZERO, WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES, AND SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE ZERO IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. WITH THE WIND,
APPARENT TEMPERATURES FALL INTO -5 TO -15 RANGE. FOR TODAY,
THAT SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY TRACKS SOUTH OF THE AREA, WE'LL SEE
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE 20S, ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT
THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SUNDAY. AS THAT
SHORTWAVE TRACKS EAST OUT OF KANSAS, MODEST ASCENT DEVELOPS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE SHOW RELATIVELY DEEP DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER.
THIS LAYER IS NOT AS DEEP FURTHER NORTH AND THAT'S WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL RESIDE AS RESULT. WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE
MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME SNOW, THE DRY AIR ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE JUST
FLURRIES. NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTUAL
LIGHT SNOW. THOUGH EVEN THERE, ONLY A DUSTING IS EXPECTED. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOWS ROUGHLY A 25-60% CHANCE FOR AT 0.1" OF SNOW FOR
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THIS DROPS TO ABOUT 5-15% CHANCE FOR 0.5". ONE
THING TO NOTE IS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE MAIN
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW EXITS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS, PARTICULARLY FROM THE
NAM, WHICH MAY BE DUE TO ITS MOIST LOW-LEVELS BIAS, SHOW A BRIEF
WINDOW WHEN CLOUD ICE IS LOST WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES, BEFORE
DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THINGS. PROBABILITIES SEEM TOO LOW TO
CARRY A MENTION AT THIS TIME, BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES AWAY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND THE FIRST ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SINCE
JANUARY 22ND. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE TREND WITH THIS WAVE HAS BEEN TO PUSH THE SURGE
OF MOISTURE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO THIS LEAVES JUST THE
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY MORNING. THAT SAID, THIS STILL
COULD BE MIXED DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
HOW FAR NORTH IT MAY GET.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FOR THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK AND AS A
RESULT, WE'LL SEE A PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY -
SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY PUSH INTO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY, WHICH MAY FEEL LIKE A
HEATWAVE COMPARED TO WHAT WE'VE EXPERIENCED THE LAST COUPLE OF
WEEKS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
CURRENTLY VFR AT ALL TERMINALS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN OVERSPREADING
THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUD DECK AROUND 6 KFT LIKELY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY AND VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, PRIMARILY FOR STJ AND FURTHER NORTH NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE IOWA BORDER, BUT FOR NOW HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION. WINDS
SHOULD BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, WITH WINDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...BMW
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