587
FXUS63 KEAX 112338
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
538 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON SATURDAY (50 TO 70%), ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
- SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR PROBABLE FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
A LOW AMPLITUDE 500-HPA RIDGE IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL
CONUS WITH DEEP TROUGHING PRESENT OVER THE WEST COAST AND A
CLOSED LOW CONTINUING TO SIT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, A 1028-MB HIGH IS SITUATED IN NORTHERN MO RESULTING IN
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER-40S AND LOW-50S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME CIRRUS FLOATING OVERHEAD. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST TOMORROW, WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY, ALTHOUGH
STILL REMAINING LIGHT. A VORTICITY MAX AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL
PROPAGATE DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE BEST LIFT AND
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA, ALTHOUGH A FEW SPRINKLES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
ACROSS NORTHERN MO.
BY FRIDAY, THE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE WEST COAST WILL
BEGIN TO ADVANCE INLAND, AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WILL RESULT IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
UPPER-50S AND LOW-60S ACROSS THE AREA. AS THE WAVE PROGRESSES
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO, IT WILL INCITE
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IN WESTERN TEXAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL TRANSPORT GULF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CWA. HOW FAR NORTH THE MOISTURE
ABLE TO REACH REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED AND WILL PLAY A LARGE
ROLE IN HOW MUCH OF THE AREA SEES RAIN. THE NBM SHOWS A 50-70%
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 AND A 30-50%
CHANCE BETWEEN THE I-70 CORRIDOR AND THE MO/IA STATE LINE ON
SATURDAY. THIS IS A NORTHWARD SHIFT FROM WHAT THE OVERNIGHT
GUIDANCE SHOWED, BUT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE. AREAS THAT DO SEE
RAIN ON SATURDAY HAVE A CHANCE TO RECEIVE A HEALTHY AMOUNT.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS A 40-50% CHANCE OF 0.5" OF RAIN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-70 AND A 20-30% OF UP TO 1". RAIN WILL EXIT THE
AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES TO THE EAST, RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN
SETUP OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS ALLOWING THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH TO
CONTINUE. NBM DETERMINISTIC HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
POINT, RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH KMCI AND KSTJ SEEM SAFE AS THEY ARE
IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S, ALTHOUGH NBM 75TH PERCENTILES DO PUSH
INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 70S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, SO IT CAN'T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT. TUESDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CALM TO LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AS HIGH CLOUDS BUILD IN THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY
TOMORROW.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS
AVIATION...MACKO
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