827
FXUS63 KEAX 120455
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1155 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH HEAT INDICES NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
SLOW MOVING MCV CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAS KICKED OFF CONVECTION NORTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AND INTO NW MISSOURI, WHICH FOR NOW HAS STRUGGLED TO GET
ITS ACT TOGETHER (DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT IS COLOCATED WITH THE
BETTER DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR - UP TO 40 KNOTS OF 0 TO 6 KM BULK
SHEAR) DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. MEANWHILE, FURTHER SOUTH, A
BOUNDARY IS APPARENT FROM WARRENSBURG TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
FORT SCOTT AND TOWARD PARSONS, KS. EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS
REMAINED RELATIVELY SUNNY, AND HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S. AS SUCH, A BULLSEYE OF UP TO 4500 J/KG OF
SB CAPE RESIDES NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER JUST WEST OF JOPLIN WITH
A TONGUE OF 3000+ J/KG OF SB CAPE EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST
INTO BATES AND HENRY COUNTIES IN MISSOURI (AND A TIGHT CAPE
GRADIENT TO THE NORTHWEST). MORE ROBUST CONVECTION IS ONGOING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND THINK THAT IF WE WERE TO
SEE A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM, IT WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A
BUTLER TO BOONVILLE LINE. WITH BACKED SURFACE/LOW LEVEL WINDS,
LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS HAVE BECOME A BIT ELONGATED WITH UP TO 150
M2/S2 OF 0 TO 1 KM SRH, SO CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF
TORNADO.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT, INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND MORNING HOURS OF
TUESDAY, AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW
INTERACTING WITH AS THE H5 TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE CWA.
BY TOMORROW EVENING/NIGHT, ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DESCENDS OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, WHICH SHOULD FINALLY SEND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE CWA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN OVER IOWA, PUTTING AN END TO ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
BY WEDNESDAY, RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS (ASSOCIATED WITH
A 594 DAM H5 HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS) BUILDS
EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. THIS CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH THE H5 HIGH AND RIDGE AXIS SITTING ON
TOP OF THE REGION BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL YIELD A WARMING
TREND, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S
AND MAX HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100 TO 107 DEGREES BY FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON AUG 11 2025
LOW MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE FCST THRU 13Z AFT WHICH CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO SCT OUT BTN 2-3KFT WITH BKN HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED ALOFT. AFT
21Z...JUST SCT HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LGT AND
VRB THRU 13Z WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST
BTN 4-8KTS. AFT 21Z...WINDS WILL AGAIN BECOME LGT AND VRB.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...73
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