998
FXUS63 KEAX 240743
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
243 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, CULMINATING IN LIKELY
RECORD HIGHS FOR THE DAY.
- STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY EVENING
AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
- ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WEST OF I-35.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
BROAD AND EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND SPILL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY AS WELL. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST COAST AND WEAK LEE TROUGHING IN
THE HIGH PLAINS, WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW, ESPECIALLY
BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM BACK
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR TODAY, HIGHS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S, ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
AS SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, LEADING TO STRONG WARM ADVECTION, HIGHS WILL
SURGE INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S FOR WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR THURSDAY. THE RECORD HIGH DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE OF 90,
SET IN 1907, IS IN PLAY FOR WEDNESDAY. THOUGH IT'S UNLIKELY, WITH
JUST A 10% OF SEEING HIGHS 90 OR HIGHER. FOR THURSDAY, WHEN THE
DAILY MAX RECORD IS 85, SET IN 1991, BREAKING IT IS VERY LIKELY WITH
A 90% CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST 85. OUR CURRENT FORECAST FOR MCI ON
THURSDAY IS 88, SO CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THIS RECORD WILL BE BROKEN.
WHILE IT WILL BE HOT ON THURSDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALSO HELP ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THOUGH IT STILL LOOKS
SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO SEE DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE
LOWER 60S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD HELP BUILD MODEST
INSTABILITY OF 1000 TO PERHAPS AS MUCH AS 2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KTS. THESE PARAMETERS SEEM AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME DUE TO A VERY STRONG
CAP FROM A STRONG EML. BY THE TIME THIS ERODES, THE SURFACE FRONT
HAS PUSHED THROUGH AND INSTABILITY BECOMES ELEVATED. IF THIS PLAYS
OUT, STORMS COULD STILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE, MOST LIKELY FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70 AND AFTER 03Z FRIDAY, BEFORE THE ENTIRE SYSTEM PUSHES
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z.
IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG/SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THURSDAY, ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WEST OF I-35 DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING EAST OF I-
35, HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL INTO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, DRIER AIR WILL BE
MOVING INTO THAT AREA WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR FRIDAY,
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER, VERY DRY AIR WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE AREA WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO HUMIDITY VALUES POSSIBLY AS LOW AS 15% FOR PARTS OF
NORTHWEST MO AND NORTHEAST KS. COUPLE THAT WITH MODEST WIND GUSTS OF
20-25 MPH, AND ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL EXIST FOR THAT PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MUCH COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. LOW-LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY AGAIN BY SUNDAY AND THE NEXT WARMING TREND
COMMENCES AS A RESULT. HIGHS SUNDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW 70S WITH
LOW 80S LIKELY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE TAF PD WITH SCT MID-LVL TO START
THE TAF PD BEFORE BKN-OVC CLOUDS MOV INTO THE TAF SITE BTN
10Z-14Z. BKN-OVC MID-LVL CLOUDS AROUND 10KFT ARE FCST AFT
19Z-23Z. WINDS TO BEGIN THE TAF PD WILL BE OUT OF THE ESE/SE BTN
5-10KTS THRU 14Z WHEN THEY WILL SHIFT TO THE SSE/SE BTN 7-12KTS.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 25:
KSTJ: 83/1991
MARCH 26:
KMCI: 85/1991
KSTJ: 89/1991
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73
CLIMATE...CMS
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