713
FXUS63 KEAX 311934
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
- HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S
- HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE
- OVERNIGHT LOWS WARM IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
- SLIGHT CHANCE (< 20%) OF STORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
IT IS GOING TO SOUND LIKE A BROKEN RECORD FOR A WHILE ... BUT THE
MAIN CONCERN IS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE PROLONGED HOT / WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. :SHRUG:
BRIEFLY LOOKING BIGGER PICTURE, IT IS A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS AND CANADA AS A CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS EASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PLAINS AND A LEADING TROUGH, CUTOFF LOW DIGS DOWN
ALONG BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND INTO THE PNW, AND MONSOON ACTIVITY
IN THE SW. IT JUST IS NOT ACTIVE OVER OUR IMMEDIATE AREA GIVEN THE
INFLUENCE OF A SIZABLE AREA OF SURFACE TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EASTWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY AREAS. PATTERN EVOLUTION
DOES NOT FAVOR RELIEF FOR THE AREA WITH THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY
DRIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK BEFORE RETROGRADING LATE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RETROGRADE, AND AMPLIFICATION,
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO CUTOFF LOWS DROPPING INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND DOWN ALONG THE PNW COAST RESPECTIVELY, CREATING AN OMEGA
BLOCK LOOK TO THE PATTERN. ALL OF THIS TO SAY, HOT AND DRY REMAINS
FAVORED THROUGH THE GOING 7-DAY FORECAST.
DIVING INTO A BIT MORE DETAIL, THERE ARE A FEW THINGS TO NOTE WITH
REGARDS TO PEAK HEAT (AND HEAT INDEX), HEAT HEADLINES, AND ANY
POTENTIAL FOR EVEN BRIEF RELIEF. TO BEGIN THOUGH, NBM AND LREF
PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO DRIVE HOME THE GENERAL PROLONGED HEAT
CONFIDENCE. NBM PROBABILITIES OF MAXT >95 DEG F TEND TO RANGE FROM
60 TO 90+ PERCENT IN AREAS WEST OF I-35 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36
THROUGH FRIDAY. LREF PROBABILITIES OF HEAT INDEX >100 DEG F ARE A
LITTLE MORE SUBDUED INITIALLY WITH PROBABILITIES WIDELY AROUND 40
PERCENT TODAY AND TUESDAY, BUT OBSERVATIONS FROM YESTERDAY SUGGEST
LREF MAY BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK LREF PROBABILITIES OF HEAT INDEX >100 DEG F NOTICEABLY INCREASE
TO >50-70 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, IN RESPONSE TO SIGNALED
GRADUAL DEW POINT INCREASES GIVEN THE PROLONGED S/SW NEAR-SURFACE
FETCH. CONTINUED FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
LIKELY LIMIT HEAT RELIEF, ESPECIALLY IN THE WARMER HEAT
ISLANDS/URBAN CORES. NBM/LREF BOLSTER THAT CONFIDENCE AS WELL WITH
PROBABILITIES OF OVERNIGHT LOWS >75 DEG F >70-90 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. AGAIN, THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN
URBAN AREAS. A COUPLE OF QUICK CAVEATS OR THINGS TO WATCH FOR. AREAS
ON THE CURRENT PERIPHERY (OR RING OF FIRE AS YOU WILL) OF THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE MAY SEE BRIEF RELIEF FROM SHOWERS/CONVECTION THAT ARE
ABLE TO WORK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THIS
LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THEN LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST AND AMPLIFIES, THERE ARE
SUGGESTIONS THAT IT RETREATS FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS COULD BE SEEN AS SHORTWAVES COME DOWN THE EASTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
REGARDING THE HEAT ADVISORY ITSELF, HAVE EXTENDED THE HEADLINE IN
TIME THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN PROLONGED HEAT AS
NOTED ABOVE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE WEEK TO BE THE HOTTEST/MOST
UNCOMFORTABLE WITH REGARDS TO HEAT INDEX.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. REMNANT
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT THROUGH THE AREA WITH MORE
CLEARING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON TO THE S/SSW THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, THEN RETURNING TO THE SW DAYTIME TUESDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ003>008-012>017-
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...BJORK/CURTIS
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