274  
FXUS63 KEAX 231058  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
558 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
OVERVIEW:  
 
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON  
ALONG A WARM FRONT SITUATED NEAR I-70 THAT WILL LIFT NORTH SATURDAY  
NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ACROSS  
NORTHERN MISSOURI. SUNDAY WILL SEE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA  
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AREAS EAST IF I-35 AND THE KC METRO HAVE  
THE POTENTIAL TO SEE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AGAIN ON SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE  
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK, BUT RAIN CHANCES RETURN MID-WEEK.  
 
SATURDAY:  
 
OVERNIGHT A STRENGTHENING 850 JET HAS AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF  
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG A BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN KS  
AND MISSOURI. THIS ACTIVITY HAS MAINLY CLIPPED FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF  
THE CWA AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THAT AREA THROUGH MID  
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN BY MID MORNING THE THE LOW LEVEL  
JET WEAKENS.  
 
WE WILL SEE SOME DRY TIME TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES  
WARMING INTO THE 60S AS A WARM FRONT DRIFTS NORTH. MOISTURE WILL BE  
SURGING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH BY THE AFTERNOON AS AN  
ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS KANSAS AND NOSES INTO  
WESTERN MISSOURI. AMPLE MU CAPE UP TO 2000 J/KG WILL DEVELOP ALONG  
THE WARM FRONT ALLOWING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO  
DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED SB CAPE, EXPECT  
STORM ACTIVITY TO BE ELEVATED IN NATURE, BUT WITH STOUT MID LEVEL  
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE, STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE  
HAIL OR STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. THE WARM  
FRONT AND STORMS WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT, MOVING INTO IOWA AND  
ILLINOIS BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.  
 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE ANOTHER BREAK IN ACTIVITY, BUT A COLD  
FRONT WILL QUICKLY BE APPROACHING THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.  
AMPLE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS  
APPROACHING FRONT. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN A BIT FASTER  
WITH THE FRONTS TIMING ON SUNDAY SO ONLY THE FAR EAST CWA MAY SEE  
ANY IMPACTS. WITH DAY TIME HEATING, EXPECT STORMS TO IGNITE ALONG  
THE FRONT EAST OF I- 35 AND WELL EAST OF THE KC METRO. STORMS WILL  
DEVELOP QUICKLY ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI,  
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINE OF STRONG STORMS BY THE EVENING.  
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT, ESPECIALLY AS STORMS  
BECOME MORE WIDE SPREAD. LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT AS  
INDIVIDUAL STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS  
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT THE  
SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THOSE IN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST  
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT.  
 
THE WORKWEEK:  
 
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION  
SUNDAY NIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE EARLY PARTS OF  
THE WEEK. MONDAY WILL SEE QUITE A BIT COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES AS  
WE REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT  
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO TOP OUT MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH A FEW  
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-70 REACHING 60 DEGREES. CLOUDS WILL LINGER  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN BY THE  
AFTERNOON. UPPER RIDGING WILL SHIFT INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND  
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SOUTH. TEMPS WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO ABOVE  
AVERAGE TUESDAY WITH MOST SEEING THE MID 60S AND SOME LOCATIONS  
REACHING THE LOW 70S. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL  
SWING THROUGH THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BEHIND THE  
FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  
DRY CONDITIONS AND LOW 60S ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS LOOK  
TO REMAIN IN THE 40S FOR MOST THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SO THE FIRST  
FREEZE IN THE KC METRO SHOULD HOLD OFF TILL NOVEMBER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING AND  
SPREAD NORTH. LATER TODAY EXPECT A FRONT TO MOVE NORTH AND SHOWER  
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG IT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE  
MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 AND STJ IS THE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED BY  
ANY STORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER IN NORTHERN MISSOURI  
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES TOWARD THE AREA, ALSO  
EXPECT WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP AT FL020 AROUND 40 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...HB  
AVIATION...HB  
 
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