968
FXUS63 KEAX 241215
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
715 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG/SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- SOME CONCERN OF RIVER/AREAL FLOODING WITH CONTINUED HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND.
- LOW PROBABILITIES OF CONTINUED PRECIPITATION (30-50%) THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
THE LINE OF SEVERE STORMS HAS MOVED OUT OF OUR AREA OFF TOWARDS THE
EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND WILL LEAD INTO A MUCH QUIETER FRIDAY.
AMPLIFIED LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE RETREATING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CLEARER SKIES, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
70S UNDER SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL CAA. BY SATURDAY,
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OFF THE ROCKIES ALONG AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CENTERED OVER MANITOBA. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT THROUGH LOW-LEVEL WAA OUT AHEAD OF IT, PROMPTING
SOME CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH NO APPRECIABLE MOISTURE ADVECTION EVIDENT
AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE, HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS FOR
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE LIMITED. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LACK OF
INITIATION WITH CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN CAMS LIKE THE NAM.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME MODELS LIKE THE EURO THAT TRY TO INITIATE
PRECIPITATION AS FAR NORTH AS THE KC METRO. IF MOISTURE IS ABLE TO
BE SUFFICIENTLY ADVECTED INTO OUR AREA AT THE LOW LEVELS, THERE IS A
LOWER CHANCE (20-40%) OF SEEING SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH GREATER CHANCES (50-70%)
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
BEGINNING SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS PRESENTS ITSELF. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT
OFF THE ROCKIES AND LIFT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY
ON SUNDAY. BROAD-SCALE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
BUILDING INSTABILITY IN THE REGION WITH THE ADVECTION OF WARM, MOIST
AIR FROM THE SOUTH, AND ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/LOW-LEVEL HELICITY WILL
BECOME ROBUST CLOSER TO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT WITH THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLJ. WATCHING RECENT TRENDS OF DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE, THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS ON SUNDAY DOESN'T APPEAR GREATLY
CONSISTENT BETWEEN MODELS TO BUILD STRONG CONFIDENCE IN STORM MODE.
THUS, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW CONVECTION WILL PLAY OUT.
HOWEVER, THE GREATEST CONSENSUS IS IN A LINEAR MODE, WITH DAMAGING
WIND BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT IN THIS STORM EVOLUTION. IF DISCRETE
STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THOUGH, ALL HAZARDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
AS THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LIFT OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTH THROUGH MONDAY, ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY WILL PRESENT ITSELF FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MO. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
REMAINS FARTHER EAST WITHIN THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND INVIGORATES A LINE OF CONVECTION INTO THE
EVENING. HOWEVER, THAT WILL REMAIN DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE
SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT WILL
INVIGORATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR RIVER/AREAL FLOODING WITH CONTINUED HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN
HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
SHOWS SWATHS OF 1.5-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MONDAY, BUT PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE LIKE THE LREF SHOWS
MINIMAL/NO CHANCES OF EXCEEDING 3 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATED
RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS IN MIND, WILL HAVE TO
CONTINUE MONITORING RAINFALL TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
WITH CONVECTIVE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING STORMS.
AFTER THIS PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER, A BROAD REGION OF ZONAL FLOW
WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PER USUAL, THERE IS DEVIATION WITH SYNOPTIC MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR
INCREASING POPS (30-50%) OVER THE FORECAST AREA STARTING TUESDAY
EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
SOME MINOR DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THROUGH THE FLOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SPG
LONG TERM...SPG
AVIATION...CMS
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