328
FXUS63 KEAX 072321
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
521 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
..00Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. A CUTOFF LOW
HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA OVER THE PAST
DAY OR SO. UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS ARE SPILLING INTO THE AREA OVER
THE PEAK OF THE RIDGE. THE CIRRUS SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE MID-
TO-HIGH 40S. NORTHEASTERN MO WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S, WHILE THE FAR SOUTHERN
REACHES OF THE CWA MAY TICK 50F THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND HAS BROUGHT
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT FURTHER EAST TOMORROW ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO
THE MID-TO-HIGH 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM ON MONDAY AS THE CUTOFF LOW
PUSHES INLAND AND CREATES A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-TO-HIGH 60S WITH THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA REACHING 70F. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORD AT MCI ON MONDAY IS 72F, SO WE WILL BE NEARING THAT
READING. NBM PROBABILITIES SHOW A 15-20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING
THE RECORD WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE SITTING AT 70F. THE DAILY
HIGH RECORD AT STJ IS 64F, WHICH IS IN LARGER JEOPARDY THAN MCI.
THE NBM 25TH PERCENTILE IS 66F AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW A
80-85% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THE RECORD.
THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT WILL
BE TEMPERED BY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE AND BETTER FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE (30-45%) FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. DRY LOW- AND MID-LEVEL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BLANKET THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA, SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERING
RAIN CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS A LOT OF SPREAD IN THE
25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES. DAILY PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST STARTING THURSDAY, THOUGH THE CHANCES REMAIN LOW
(15-30%). A FEW OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY EVEN MIX IN ACROSS
NORTHERN MO AS LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOW 30S,
BUT AT THIS RANGE, THIS IS ANYTHING BUT CERTAIN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. INITIALLY SE WINDS WILL GIVE WAY OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING TO A CLOCKWISE SHIFT, SETTLING OUT OF THE NW BY MID-LATE
MORNING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER END, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO AROUND
10KTS DURING DAYTIME PERIODS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS
AVIATION...CURTIS
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