277
FXUS63 KEAX 162353
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
653 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS TOMORROW MORNING WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS OF 50 MPH. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. INITIAL THREAT WILL BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING HAILS, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
STORMS WILL TRANSITION INTO A LINE LATER IN THE EVENING WITH
THREATS MAINLY BEING STRONG WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.
- ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS THE THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. RADAR SHOWS
THAT THE SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES DIVING SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER NE AND
QUICKLY DEEPENS. THIS LEADS TO A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET
CRUISING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 50-60
KTS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES IN THE MORNING WE MAY SEE
SOME OF THIS MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. EFI WIND GUSTS
HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND UP WITH VALUES OF 0.9 ENCOMPASSING
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MO. THE LATEST REFS ALSO SUGGESTS AT
LEAST A 50-70% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH AFTER
9AM. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW MORNING. AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET PUSHES EAST THROUGH THE DAY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS A BIT AND SHIFTS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH IA AND INTO IL.
HOWEVER, THE REGION WILL HAVE BEEN INUNDATED WITH STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A VERY WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. HEAT INDICIES WILL BE IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS WITH A HEAT RISK OF 2/4.
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON
DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
THE FOCAL POINT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP. THE
CONVECTIVE PARAMETER SPACE FEATURES A HIGH AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO OUR WARM MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE
PROJECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 3500 J/KG. OUR BULK SHEAR IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH SPEEDS AROUND
45 KTS. STORM MODE MAY INITIALLY BE DISCRETE AS MEAN WIND FLOW
HITS THE BOUNDARY LAYER AT A SLIGHT ANGLE. BUT AS THE COLD POOLS
CONGEAL, MODE WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO LINEAR. SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY WILL CARRY THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. AS WE TRANSITION TO A MORE
LINEAR MODE, STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WITH A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. WITH ALL THE AMPLE INGREDIENTS IN PLAY THE
MAIN UNKNOWN WILL BE THE LOCATION OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST CAMS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE BOUNDARY BEING SOUTH OF THE METRO AND TRAILING NE INTO
MACON. HOWEVER, THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE STILL SAGS THE
BOUNDARY BACK THROUGH THE METRO. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH AGREEMENT
ON INITIALIZATION AFTER 3PM. FOR NOW, SPC HAS AN ENHANCED RISK
(3/5) FOR OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES WITH THE METRO AND
NORTHWEST MO LOWERING TO SLIGHT (2/5) AND MARGINAL (1/5).
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
THURSDAY THE COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE NORTHLAND. QUIETER WEATHER WILL BE ON TAP FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOW 80S, SLIGHTLY WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID 80S.
THE WEEKEND SEES OUR PATTERN CHANGE BACK TO HIGH ACTIVITY WITH A
500MB JET MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. CROSS BARRIER FLOW WILL
LEAD TO CYCLOGENESIS AND A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN KS. HIGH PRESSURE GETS SHUFFLED OFF TO THE EAST SETTING
UP A FAVORABLE GULF CONNECTION. IVT INCREASES RAPIDLY LEADING
TO PWATS FOR THE WEEKEND APPROACHING 2" A MIXTURE OF HIGH
MOISTURE POISED WITH SOME PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY LEAD TO SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERNS ONCE AGAIN. AT THE MOMENT SPC HAS EASTERN KS
AND NW MO TO INCLUDE THE METRO IN A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER. THE 12Z SUITE OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS REALLY
HAMMERING THE MIDWEST WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE QPF TOTALS WHICH WILL
LEAD TO FLOODING CONCERNS. WHICH AREAS WILL SEE THE LION'S
SHARE OF THE LIQUID IS STILL DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN WITH THE GFS
BEING THE MOST BULLISH SHOWING A FEW AREAS RECEIVING OVER 4" OF
RAIN. WPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT RISK (2/3) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ENCOMPASSING THE CWA THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS ALOFT BEGIN TO ACCELERATE AS THE LLJ INCREASES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THIS INTRODUCES SOME CONCERNS FOR LLWS AS 1500-2000FT
WINDS MAY REACH 50-60 KNOTS WHILE SURFACE WINDS MAY RESIDE BELOW
12 KNOTS. AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES, MOMENTUM TRANSFERS DOWNWARD
INCREASING SURFACE WINDS LESSENING THE AFFECTS OF LLWS SLIGHTLY.
ONCE THE SUN RISES, DIURNAL MIXING QUICKLY ACCELERATES SW WINDS
EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40
KNOTS, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHIFTING WINDS
NORTHWESTERLY. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE; HOWEVER,
LOWER GUSTS WILL LINGER THROUGH SUNSET.
RA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, THAT IS EXPECTED TO HAPPEN AFTER THE COLD
FRONT HAS PASSED THROUGH KEEPING TSRA ACTIVITY SE OF THE
TERMINALS FROM NE THROUGH SW MO.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ001>006-
011>015-020-021-028-029.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ007-008-
016-017-022>025-030>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ025-
102>104.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 3 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ057-060-
105.
SHORT TERM...BRITT
LONG TERM...BRITT
AVIATION...PESEL
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