446  
FXUS63 KEAX 170407  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
1107 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021  
 
KEY MESSAGES...  
 
1. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE THE REMAINDER OF  
TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.00  
INCHES.  
 
2. LATE SPRING COLD SNAP NEXT WEEK. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES  
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. RAIN AND SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN  
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.  
 
DETAILED DISCUSSION...  
 
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. AIDED  
BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE H500 SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST, MOST OF OUR  
RAINFALL TODAY IS ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN, WITH BROAD FORCING FOR  
ASCENT SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA PAIRED WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.  
EXPECT RAINFALL TO START TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING,  
WITH MORE FOCUS FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI  
SATURDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING QUICKLY, SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A SECOND  
SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, SKIRTING  
NE/IA, BRINGING A SECOND SHOT AT LIGHT RAIN AND SOME ISOLATED  
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL  
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, INTO SUNDAY, BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL RANGE  
FROM AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVERALL.  
 
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A LATE SPRING COLD SNAP IS EXPECTED. MID TO LONG  
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOUBLE DOWN ON THE ARRIVAL OF  
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. NOT TO RE-HASH JARED'S DISCUSSION  
FROM THIS MORNING TOO MUCH, BUT A BROAD COLD FRONT WILL LAG  
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SINKING TOWARD THE MO/IA  
BORDER BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS ABOUT A 6 HOUR TIME DIFFERENCE  
BETWEEN THE LATEST SOLUTIONS, WHICH WILL MATTER GREATLY FOR THE COLD  
AIR ARRIVAL. OF NOTE, H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW 0 C,  
BETWEEN ABOUT -5 AND -10 C. AMPLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS  
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
EARLY TUESDAY, WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX POSSIBLE. CURRENT TUESDAY  
MORNING LOWS WILL DIP AROUND FREEZING TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW,  
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN MO AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.  
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S DURING THE DAY.  
WITH THAT SAID, THAT MEANS IF SNOW FLAKES DO FALL, THEY'RE NOT GOING  
TO STICK AROUND TOO LONG OR ENOUGH TO CAUSE A PROBLEM.  
 
KEEP CHECKING THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THERE'S SOME FAILURE  
MODES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AT PLAY WITH THE RAIN-SNOW MIX; TIMING,  
TEMPERATURES, ETC, SO KEEP AWARE AND WE'LL UPDATE AS WE KNOW MORE  
AND MOVE CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021  
 
LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CONTINUES AROUND THE AREA, BUT SHOULD BE  
MOVING EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS HAVE  
BEEN FLUCTUATING A LITTLE BIT THIS EVENING, BUT MVFR CIGS ARE  
GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH EARLY  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AT WHICH POINT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT  
AND RETURN CONDITIONS TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF  
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH  
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...KURTZ  
AVIATION...BMW  
 
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