997
FXUS63 KEAX 221130
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
530 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS THIS MORNING PRECEDE A WELCOMED
WARMUP WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE 30S, TOMORROW IN THE
UPPER 40S TO 50S, AND NEAR 60 MONDAY.
- MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY. SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION REMAIN WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE.
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN HIGH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD. AS IT DOES
SO, LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS OUT OF THE SOUTH SETTING UP A WAA REGIME
WHICH STARTS A WARMING TREND THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. SLIGHT
TROUGHING ALOFT DELAYS WARMING EVER SO SLIGHTLY; HOWEVER, THAT WAVE
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH BY SUNRISE. ONCE THIS HAPPENS DRY NW FLOW
CLEARS SKIES ALLOWING SOLAR HEATING TO BOOST THE WAA QUICKLY RAISING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S BY MIDDAY.
TWO NOTABLE FEATURES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN KEEP THE WARM AIR
FLOWING INTO THE REGION. THE FIRST IS BROADSCALE OROGRAPHIC DECENT
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ROCKIES. THIS WARMS AIR ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS IN
THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WORKS IN TANDEM WITH THE SECOND FEATURE, A
PAIR OF SLOW MOVING 850MB AND 500MB TROUGH AXES WHICH COMPRESS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE JUST ENOUGH TO ENCOURAGE SOME
ACCELERATED FLOW INTO EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO WITH WINDS AROUND 10-
15MPH WITH AN ISOLATED GUST TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS TAPS INTO
THE WARM AIR ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS AND PUSHES IT INTO OUR
REGION. THE PRIMARY EFFECT OF THIS IS A STEADY AND WELCOME RISE IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. AFTER MID-30S SATURDAY, SUNDAY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 50S, AND MONDAY LOOKS TO SEE SOME PLACES BREAK
60 DEGREES.
SYNOPTIC SCALE 500MB RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS KEEPS MOST OF
THE ACTIVE WAVES TO OUR NORTH AND CUTS OFF THE FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION. THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THINGS DRY AND WARM THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC IN
RAINFALL CHANCES; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
RAINFALL IS INCREASED. A 500MB TROUGH DIGS SOUTH OUT OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST WHICH LOOKS TO BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR; HOWEVER, ANTECEDENT
MOISTURE FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY.
THIS WILL GREATLY DETERMINE WHEN AND WHERE PRECIPITATION COULD
DEVELOP. RUN TO RUN, THIS HAS MOVED THE AREA INTEREST AROUND WITH
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS BEING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN RAIN ACROSS THE OH
RIVER VALLEY THAN THE MO RIVER VALLEY. LOOKING AT THE EXTENDED,
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CONTINUE. THE RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN ENABLING POTENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION TO MOVE A FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE SW CONUS OPENING UP
OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY MARCH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST SAT FEB 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY AND ACCELERATE THROUGH THE
MORNING. SOME INTERMITTENT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON THAT DISSIPATE EARLY EVENING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PESEL
AVIATION...PESEL
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