576
FXUS63 KEAX 190745
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
245 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANQUIL AND
COOL SUNDAY/MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF THE
MORNING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S BOTH AFTERNOONS.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE AREA AS ANOTHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE
WEATHER. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS, GENERALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT PROJECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY REACH AND OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA
DURING MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WARM SECTOR OVER FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA, AND SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE GENERALLY LOSING STORM SEVERITY AS CONVECTION
OUTPACES INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
LIMP NORTHWARD, LIKELY FIGHTING SOME REINFORCEMENT FROM WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. STILL, MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE COULD
REACH THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY NOON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION, POTENTIALLY ONGOING AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES, IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION, THE
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION, EVEN WITHIN THE LIFTING
WARM SECTOR DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEBRIS. THAT SAID, THE
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA, WITH STRONG LOW-
LEVEL SHEAR AND DYNAMICS IN PLACE, POCKETS OF STRAIGHT-LINE WIND
DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO EMBEDDED IN THE LINE WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL END AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NW 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA
FOR THE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH COVERS AREAS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND/OR AREAS THAT ARE MORE SENSITIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON
TODAY'S RAINFALL/ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS
A PARADE OF UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO CYCLE THROUGH THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ARRIVE DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, EVENTUALLY PUSHING EAST
BEFORE SUNRISE. PERIODIC MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME, ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. LOW-
LEVEL STRATUS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE PRECIP
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY
THE MID-MORNING HOURS, WHILE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR MOZ001>007-011>016-020>023-028>031-037-038-043.
DISCUSSION...BLAIR
AVIATION...WELSH
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