269
FXUS63 KEAX 020542
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1142 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
FRIDAY EVENING
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO COLORADO
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME FOR THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER PORTIONS OF THE TROPOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE HAS BEEN TRAPPED
IN A STRONGER INVERSION LAYER AROUND 900MB THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE STRATIFORM CLOUD COVER TO LINGER.
AS OF 21Z, SATELLITE TRENDS SHOWED SOME SUBSIDENCE MIXING OUT THE
SOUTHERN END OF THIS CLOUD COVER. WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD
COVER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER AFTER SUNSET,
EXPECTING MORE STRATIFORM CLOUD COVER. HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER FOR
THIS EVENING LEANING MORE INTO A RAP SOLUTION, AS THIS WAS THE
SOLUTION THIS MORNING THAT WAS HANDLING IT BEST. OTHER SOLUTIONS
CLEARED OUT CONDITIONS MUCH FASTER THAN WHAT WAS ACTUALLY BEING
OBSERVED. THERE ARE TWO H5 SHORT-WAVE PERTURBATIONS WITH NOTABLE
VORT MAXIMA OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ARE MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS HAS ALLOWED A SURFACE CYCLONE TO DEVELOP AND WILL
PUSH TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL MISS
MOST OF THE AREA, BUT THIS WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
STALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS. IN THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY , SURFACE FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING. THIS MAY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HWY. 36.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CURRENT STRATUS CLEARS OUT THIS EVENING,
EFFICIENT COOLING AT THE SURFACE COULD FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS FOG. AFTER SUNSET, EVEN AREAS THAT REMAIN IN THE 900MB STRATUS
DECK COULD ALSO SEE FOG, AS ANY TYPE OF MIXING ENDS AND MAY ALLOW
THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO RE-SATURATE. AT THIS TIME, UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW
DENSE FOG MAY BECOME BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY EVENING, STRONGER DAVA WILL CONTINUE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST THAT WILL REINFORCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE STALLED BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL
OR EASTERN KANSAS WILL BE PUSHED SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT, WITH
ANOTHER THERMAL GRADIENT DROPPING SOUTHWARD. THE STRONGER DAVA AND
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER
H5 PERTURBATION, THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS THE VORT MAXIMA MOVING INTO
THE GULF REGION, WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA / WESTERN IOWA
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE PAST FEW DAYS, SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS
DEPICTED TWO DRY LAYERS THAT KEPT ALL OF OUR FORECAST AREA DRY, WITH
ANY LIGHT WINTRY MIXES IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. 12Z
CAMS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR A SATURATED BOUNDARY
LAYER, OR SOME KIND OF FAVORABLE SEEDER-FEEDER MECHANISM TO PRODUCE
A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN MISSOURI FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE DRY AIR TO CONTEND WITH, BUT THE CURRENT
STATUS CLOUDS FROM TODAY IS THE FIRST INDICATION THAT THERE MAY BE
MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THEN WHAT THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAD BEEN ADVERTISING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES RIPPLES THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HREF
MEAN QPF IS VERY LOW FOR THIS AREA. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX HAS BEEN
ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY EVENING IN NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI, BUT CURRENTLY NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST. THERE
ARE A FEW MODELS THAT ARE HINTING AT FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL DUE
TO A LACK OF ICE INTRODUCTION. HOWEVER, MOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE AROUND 34-35F WHEN THIS OCCURS, AND BY THE TIME THE FINAL CAA
PUSH OCCURS THAT WOULD LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING,
THERE IS SOME ICE INTRODUCTION THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR DENDRITES.
CURRENT EXPECTATION WOULD BE FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO OCCUR ONLY
ON ELEVATED SURFACES THAT COOL RAPIDLY, AND THEREFORE MAY NOT
PRESENT TRAVEL IMPACTS WITH THE CURRENT EXPECTED TEMPERATURES AND
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES. THIS WAVE SHOULD EXIT BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, THESE
SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC ALLOWS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS, WHICH WILL PROMOTE STRONG WAA FOR THE START OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL RELATIVE TO
THE FIRST OF JANUARY. NBM MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR LOWER
60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70, WITH MID 50S TOWARD THE IOWA
STATE LINE. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING EXPECTED, WHICH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY. THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR STRONGER TROUGH TO
MOVE THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, INTRODUCING RAINFALL
POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
IFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM THE KC METRO TO DMO. SOUTH OF THIS LINE, AREAS OF FOG,
POSSIBLY DENSE COULD DEVELOP REDUCING VISIBILITY BELOW 1 SM.
WITH EASTERLY WINDS, CEILINGS WILL VISIBILITIES WILL BE VERY
SLOW TO IMPROVE ON FRIDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...BT
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