283
FXUS63 KEAX 052041
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
341 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUE TO GENERALLY WIND DOWN N TO S OVER THE AREA
REMAINDER OF TODAY.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. MAINLY WESTERN AREAS BETWEEN HIGHWAY 36
AND HIGHWAY 50
* COOL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGIN THEIR
RETURN THURSDAY ONWARD.
* PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE APPEAR LOW IN COMING DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A WET AND SOGGY DAY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS AND CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SAG SOUTHWARD,
CURRENTLY RESIDING OVER FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS
NICELY SHOWS AIR MASS/MOISTURE OVERRIDING THE SURFACE FRONT AND
WRAPPING INTO THE LARGER LOW LEVEL SYSTEM. THIS AND SOME VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY HAVE RESULTED IN THE PERSISTENT AND SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
SAGGING SHOWERS. ALL OF THE ABOVE HAS ALSO PREVENTED APPRECIABLE
WARMING FOR MANY, WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. COUNTER INTUITIVELY, NORTHERN MISSOURI
WILL BE WARMEST LOCATIONS OF THE DAY AS THEY HAVE BEEN RAIN FREE
MUCH OF THE DAY. OVERALL PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO EASE
AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND ADVECTION OF
DEEPER DRY AIR MASS.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS
LATE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF ELEVATED (~700MB)
CONVERGENCE CONCURRENT WITH ONGOING ISENTROPIC LIFT BELOW WILL
ATTEMPT TO NOSE INTO THE AREA. MAY BE AIDED BY SOME SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE, BUT LARGER WAVE APPEARS ILL TIMED (SLOW/LATER). IT IS
POSSIBLE FOR SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY WITHIN THIS ELEVATED AREA
WITH BORDERLINE LAPSE RATES ABOVE AND WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO FOR ANYTHING APPRECIABLE REACHING THE GROUND. OTHERWISE,
SOUNDINGS AND LIFT DEPICTIONS SUGGEST IT WOULD BE DIFFICULT TO
APPRECIABLY PRECIPITATE. BEST CHANCES OVER WESTERN FORECAST AREA,
LARGELY BETWEEN HIGHWAYS 36 AND 50. LARGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS THROUGH THE FLOW LATER WEDNESDAY, WITH BULK OF LIFT/ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ANTICIPATED TO JUST PASS SW.
TRAILING SURFACE HIGH USHERS IN REINFORCING DRY AIR TO THE LARGER
AREA. THE LACK OF WAA KEEPS TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY,
PREDOMINANTLY FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
WARMING TREND RETURNS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND SS/S SURFACE FLOW
PREVAILING MUCH OF THE TIME. THIS TENDS TO PUSH TEMPERATURES A
HANDFUL OF DEGREES WARMER EACH DAY THURSDAY/FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW 80S BY SATURDAY. SOME TEMPERED EXPECTATIONS
MAY BE WARRANTED FRIDAY THOUGH, AS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON A SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL
MAY PROVIDE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDER OPPORTUNITIES. ANOTHER, MORE
ROBUST, SHORTWAVE IS ALSO WELL DEPICTED WITHIN BROAD GUIDANCE SUNDAY
AND TOO WOULD PROVIDE ANOTHER OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS
AND TEMPERATURES EASING BACK A FEW DEGREES. CURRENTLY, GULF MOISTURE
RETURN IS ILL TIMED/NOT OPEN, SO THIS TOO APPEARS AS MORE OF A
SHOWER/NON-SEVERE THUNDER SITUATION. WARMING THEN PICKS BACK UP INTO
AT LEAST EARLY WORK WEEK AS WE SEE BROADER MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES
AND WARMER 850MB TEMPS BUILDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SITES. EXCEPTIONS POTENTIALLY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE/FEW HOURS
AS POCKETS OF HEAVIER SHRA PASS NEAR OR OVER THE TRIO OF KC
METRO TAF SITES. THIS WOULD YIELD SHORT-DURATION MVFR
VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE, CEILINGS BROADLY >7-8KFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY SETTLING OUT OF THE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION. ANOTHER CHANCE AT A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT INTO MORNING, AND HAVE OPTED FOR A PROB30 IN RESPONSE
TO LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS
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