658
FXUS63 KEAX 181905
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
205 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-70.
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SATURDAY
MORNING AND NIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF MO. THE MAIN THREATS INCLUDE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
- HAZARDOUS HEAT LIKELY BUILDING THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100-110 F. AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL TAKE EFFECT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD REORIENTING
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF THE SOUTH. INCREASED WARM AIR
ADVECTION, THE EASTWARD SHIFTING OF A H850 THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN U.S., AND GOOD DIURNAL MIXING WILL LEAD TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE
MORE DESTABILIZATION AND LESS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS EXPECTED.
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THE
MOST CLEARING. FOR NOW (AS OF 17Z), VIS SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHES OF
CLOUD BREAKS FARTHER EAST NEAR MOBERLY. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS
KEEP CONVECTION VERY SPARSE SOUTH OF I-70. IN AREAS THAT DO DEVELOP
STORMS, LIMITED SHEAR (0-500MB SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 15-25 KTS)
SUGGEST MORE SHORT-LIVED PULSE-LIKE STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
ISOLATED SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS (NOTED BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND
DCAPE VALUES AROUND 600-700 J/KG) AND A FEW BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALLS
(PWATS RANGING AROUND 2 INCHES AND TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES).
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, A H500 DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM TROUGHING
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL INITIATE AN MCS OVER IA WHICH
WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE CONDITIONS INCLUDING. STRONG
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE
HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE KC
METRO TO MACON HIGHLIGHTED BY THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK (1/5). THE
MCS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS NORTHERN MO AS OUR
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY THAT REMAINS IS THE INTENSIFYING OF A 25-35 KT
LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO OUR AREA NEAR THE KC METRO. THE ADDITION
OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET COULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL AS
ALLOW STORMS TO LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
ALONG WITH THE H850 THERMAL RIDGE. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB. POSSIBLE MORNING CONVECTION COULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70. HOWEVER, HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-70 MAY LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 90S.
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO REACH THE MID
70S RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF I-70. HEAT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT, A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT EJECT OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS, COMBINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET RE-INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MO/IA BORDER
(HIGHLIGHTED WELL BY THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK) INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE THUS, LIFT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME
LOOK TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE WILL BE A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA WHICH SUGGESTS STORMS MAY BE
ELEVATED. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S COULD PUSH THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH LIMITING THE
SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA. ALSO, POTENTIAL MORNING CONVECTION COULD
ALSO IMPACT AVAILABLE ENERGY FOR THE EVENING ROUNDS.
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,
HAZARDOUS HEAT IS EXPECTED AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES
AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE 850 MB THERMAL
RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND OUR WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH
WITH A SURFACE HIGH PARKED IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HEAT INDICES
RANGING FROM 105-110 F WILL MAKE EXTENDED PERIODS OF OUTDOOR
ACTIVITY DANGEROUS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT AREAS NORTH OF I-
70 MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS SPORADIC SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW BRINGING CHANCE FOR RAIN. HEAT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
AND WILL LIKELY STAY IN EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO
VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CALM SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE TOMORROW MORNING. FOR NOW, LEFT IN A PROB30 GROUP DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ025-102.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY
FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...COLLIER
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