937
FXUS63 KEAX 042056
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
356 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT.
CONTINUED HYDROLOGICAL/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
- STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCES RETURN TOMORROW EVENING, PRIMARILY
ALONG/NORTH OF US-36. GENERAL POPS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- HEAT AND MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
HEAT INDICES RISING TO THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE SHIFTING
OFF TO THE EAST AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS INVIGORATED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
CENTRAL KS, AND WILL BE THE FOCUS POINT OF OUR GREATEST CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT. WITH DEEP, SUSTAINED SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS, WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
VIGOROUS CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO INITIATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER, WITH MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES/
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THE PROBABILITY OF ORGANIZED, PERSISTENT
CONVECTION IS NOT HIGH. PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THESE AFTERNOON STORMS
WOULD BE HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND SUBSEVERE HAIL. AS
THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES OVER OUR AREA INTO THE LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE LLJ WILL PROVIDE
BETTER DEEP SHEAR PROFILES FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WITH
BETTER ORGANIZED CONVECTION, THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE
HAIL INCREASES WITH ANY ROBUST STORMS, AS WELL AS THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INCREASED LOW-LEVEL HELICITY. STORMS WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME MORE ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AS THE NIGHTTIME
BOUNDARY LAYER ESTABLISHES ITSELF AND SBCAPE DIMINISHES, WITH SEVERE
HAZARDS (MAINLY SEVERE WINDS VIA DOWNBURSTS) PERSISTING THROUGH THE
MORNING UNTIL THE LLJ DEINTENSIFIES. WITH THIS ACTIVITY, ANOTHER
CONCERN WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. PWAT VALUES CURRENTLY
RESIDE AROUND/ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS
PERIOD WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND THE 18Z SOUNDING OUT OF TOP. THUS, ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT
DEVELOP DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE VERY PRECIP EFFICIENT. THIS,
COUPLED WITH INCREASED RUNOFF DUE TO DRY SOILS FROM OUR PREVIOUS
QUIET/DRY WEATHER, WILL ENHANCE CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING.
FORECAST QPF CONSISTENTLY REMAINS AROUND 1-3" ACROSS A SWATH OF
NORTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST KS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN
EFFECT, WITH PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW CHANCES (~20-40%) OF
24 HOUR QPF EXCEEDING 3" THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS ACROSS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, A BRIEF
LULL IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW. CONTINUED
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL ALLOW OUR
ENVIRONMENT TO RECOVER INSTABILITY, AND WILL ENHANCE OPPORTUNITIES
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TOMORROW EVENING OVER NORTHERN MO, GENERALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE US-36 CORRIDOR. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE MARGINALLY
IMPROVED RELATIVE TO TODAY OVER NORTHERN MO, WITH IMPROVED MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO A GREATER RISK FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INCREASINGLY FAVORING THE BULK OF ACTIVITY
OCCURRING NORTH OF OUR AREA IN SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IA, BUT THERE
ARE STILL SOME RUNS OF CONVECTIVE MODELS THAT PLACE ACTIVITY
WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA (ALONGSIDE A LEVEL 2/5 SLIGHT RISK FROM
SPC) SO HAVE KEPT INCREASED POPS IN NORTHERN MO WITH THIS IN
MIND. FORECAST PWAT VALUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN AROUND/ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD, WHICH CONTINUES CONCERNS
FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL AND SUBSEQUENT HYDROLOGICAL ISSUES FOR
AREAS THAT SEE RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WITH INCREASED
IMPERVIOUSNESS TO WATER DUE TO RAINFALL FROM TODAY. AS THIS
ACTIVITY EXITS ON SATURDAY, BRIEF AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER LULL IN ACTIVITY. WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURE/MOISTURE
ADVECTION, HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, REACHING THE LOW/MID 90S BY SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
AMPLIFIED RIDGING WILL EXIT TO THE EAST EARLY SUNDAY WHILE A CLOSED
LOW TRAVERSES THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE POPS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND, WITH
OVERALL SEVERE CHANCES REMAINING LOW DUE TO MINIMAL CAPE AND
MARGINAL SHEAR/LAPSE RATES. AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO LIFT
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, POPS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARDS THE EAST
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD BACK IN BY MIDWEEK. WITH CONTINUED HEAT/MOISTURE ADVECTION,
HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE RISING, ENHANCING HEAT RISK
CONCERNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THIS,
THOUGH, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL
ACTUALLY BE ADVECTED INTO OUR AREA TO CAUSE HEAT INDICES TO RISE AS
HIGH AS SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES. THERE IS SOME SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS REGARDING FORECASTED DEWPOINTS THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS TO SEE IF THERE IS BETTER
CONVERGENCE BEFORE MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK, AS THIS WILL DICTATE JUST HOW
HIGH HEAT INDICES RISE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
CURRENTLY OBSERVING A CU FIELD DEVELOPING ON SATELLITE AT MOST
TERMINALS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS TO
DEVELOP AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GREATER CONFIDENCE
IS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVERNIGHT, DEVELOPING
OVER NORTHWEST MO/NORTHEAST KS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
DOWNWARD OVERNIGHT TO DOWNTOWN TERMINALS. EXPECTING
SHOWERS/STORMS TO EXIT THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS AROUND 9-12Z
TOMORROW MORNING AS CLOUD CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR, WITH GUSTIER
WINDS PERSISTING AT TERMINALS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHERLY AROUND
10-15 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR MOZ001>005-011>013-020.
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR KSZ025-102.
SHORT TERM...SPG
LONG TERM...SPG
AVIATION...SPG
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