433
FXUS63 KEAX 301950
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
250 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SEASONAL TO SEASONALLY COOL CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY
- NORMAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
* VERY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
* WARMER SUNDAY/MONDAY WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
A COOL TO CHILLY START TO THE DAY TRANSITIONED TO A COOL, BUT MOSTLY
QUIET, DAY TO THIS POINT. A COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN TO WORK
INTO MISSOURI FROM THE NW, AND CONCURRENT WITH DIURNAL MIXING AND A
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAS BEGUN SEE AN UPTICK IN SCATTERED SHOWER
COVERAGE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME (230PM OR SO), THE FIRST FEW
LIGHTNING RETURNS HAVE BEEN NOTED ON GOES AND OTHER LIGHTNING
DETECTION PRODUCTS OVER FAR N/NE MISSOURI. AS WE WORK THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SEE GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDER COVERAGE TO THE SW. ALL
INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARDS JUST A COUPLE TO MAYBE A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG CAPE THAT WOULD YIELD BRIEF SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIFT SE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND REMAIN LARGELY TRANSIENT IN
NATURE. JUST ENOUGH TO WET THE GROUND TO A HANDFUL HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IN MOST CASES. OVERNIGHT, CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS AGAIN YIELDS A NIGHT OF EFFICIENT COOLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
DROP INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA,
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS TOO INTRODUCES INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FROST, AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND PRONE
AREAS. A FROST ADVISORY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TONIGHT, BUT HAVE
COORDINATED WITH NEIGHBORS TO WITHHOLD FOR THE TIME BEING.
FRIDAY IS NOT WHOLLY DIFFERENT THAN TODAY IN THAT WE MAY SEE A
SUBTLE SURFACE FRONT AND LOW TO MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT COULD SPARK
OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF A
COUPLE HUNDRED CAPE (BUT LIKELY LESS THAN THE UP TO FEW HUNDRED SEEN
TODAY/THURSDAY). BY THIS POINT EVEN DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE IN
THE LOWEST LEVELS THOUGH, SO ACTIVITY MAY BE LARGELY LIMITED TO
SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT RAIN. HAVE COORDINATED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS INTO THE GRIDS WITH NEIGHBORS, A NOMINAL CHANGE FROM THE DRY
NBM LOAD. EFFECTIVELY ZERO CONSEQUENCE EITHER WAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANOTHER DAY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MOST. FRIDAY OVERNIGHT TO
SATURDAY MORNING MAY BE THE COLDEST OF NIGHTS WITH YET ANOTHER
EFFICIENT COOLING SETUP WITH CLEAR/CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AS
A SURFACE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT IN. THIS YIELDS LOWS APPROACHING
THE LOW 40S IN NW MISSOURI, AND IS THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR A
FROST ADVISORY OR ANY COLD TEMPERATURE HEADLINE.
THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES INTO CANADA WILL HAVE GRADUALLY SLID EASTWARD, SHIFTING THE
MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH ALLOWING FOR THE COLD START TO
SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONALLY COOL IN THE 60S. MORE
NOTABLE WARMING RETURNS BY SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH DEPARTS
EASTWARD AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL S/SW SURFACE FLOW RETURNS AND PUSHES
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA. AN ODD 80 OR TWO MAY BE
SEEN INTO FAR EASTERN KANSAS/NEAR THE KANSAS/MISSOURI BORDER.
ANOTHER NUISANCE SHORTWAVE MAY SLIDE INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE NW
FLOW SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE LIGHT
RAIN/RAIN SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE IN ANY ACTIVITY IS BEST OVER NE
MISSOURI, BUT MUCH OF THE AREA CURRENTLY APPEARS POISED TO REMAIN
DRY.
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL IN NATURE OVER THE
IMMEDIATE REGION AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE REINFORCES THE
GENERAL TROUGHING. THIS WILL BE CONCURRENT WITH A CUTOFF MID-UPPER
LOW WORKING INTO AND THROUGH THE SW CONUS. THESE LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVES AND SURFACE FEATURES CONTINUE TO
SEEK CONSISTENT RESOLUTION WITHIN SYNOPTIC DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT IN TIME, SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OPPORTUNITIES ARE DEPICTED AS
EARLY AS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT
WITH CURRENT GREATEST CONFIDENCE IN THE MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAMES. TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS WINDOW START OFF WARM
(70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY) WITH THE ONGOING AND CONTINUED SOUTHERLY
FLOW, BUT BECOME TEMPERED (BACK INTO THE 60S/LOW 70S) BY FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OPPORTUNITIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT THU APR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE SITES, WITH ONE
CAVEAT. THE TRIO OF METRO SITES RUN THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING A
VCTS/VCSH TO BRIEF PREVAILING SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IS QUITE
LOW, BUT ENOUGH TO HAVE SOME MENTION OF PROB30 THERE. EVEN AMONG
THE THREE KC METRO SITES, CONFIDENCE IS LEAST UP TOWARD KMCI.
OTHERWISE, CURRENT S/SSW WINDS WILL TURN NW WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY THEN GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE
REESTABLISHING NW LATE IN THE PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...CURTIS
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