675
FXUS63 KEAX 041741
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1241 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY EXPECTED TODAY.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, SOME OF WHICH COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.
- COOLER, SHOWERY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
WEAK BAND OF SHOWER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE HIGHWAY 36 CORRIDOR
NORTH OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT STALLED OUT IN THE I-70
CORRIDOR. THESE SHOWERS ARE IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THESE
DISTURBANCES HAVE VERY LIMITED AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
(<100 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE), BUT SHOWERS ARE STRONGER THAN ONE
WOULD EXPECT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY DUE TO STRONG SHEAR IN THE MID-
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST IN THE
PRE DAWN HOURS TODAY AS SHORT WAVES CONTINUE TO WORK EAST.
WITH RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY CLEAR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. WITH
THE HEATING TODAY, WILL SEE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AS MOMENTUM IS TRANSFERRED FROM ALOFT. VAD WINDS SHOW 50+ KNOTS
WITHIN THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET OF THE TROPOSPHERE, AND COULD
SEE GUSTS APPROACH 35-40 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING AS SURFACE
MIXING GROWS INTO THE LOW LEVEL JET BEFORE THE LAYER FULLY
MODERATES. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50, AND THERE MAY BE
A FEW LATE DAY CUMULUS THAT DEVELOP AS DEEPER NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
STARTS TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH. CURRENTLY, SURFACE DEW POINTS IN
THE 40S EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTH TEXAS, SO IT WILL TAKE THE
BETTER PART OF TODAY BEFORE WE SEE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASES IN MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION. 00Z SOUNDING FROM KTOP SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
IS AROUND 0.75" (FAIRLY SEASONAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR), BUT
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE CLOSER TO 1" BY LATE TODAY (~75
PERCENTILE).
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO WORK SOUTH
TODAY AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. ML CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 2000-
2500 J/KG, WITH THE NAM SUGGESTING LOCATIONS BETWEEN I-70 AND
HIGHWAY 36 MAY APPROACH VALUES CLOSER TO 3000 J/KG. WITH BULK SEAR
VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS, THERE IS AMPLE SHEAR TO ALLOW STORMS TO
ORGANIZE AND BECOME SEVERE. CAPPING INVERSION AT 800-700 MB IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD STRONG THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT AS
ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, EXPECT
STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE 00-03Z TIME FRAME. EXPECT SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS TO BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS, WITH
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT UPON INITIATION. EXPECT STORMS OVER
TIME TO ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND BOWING SEGMENTS LATER IN THE
EVENING TAKING ON MORE OF A WIND THAN HAIL THREAT.
INSTABILITY DWINDLES EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTH; HOWEVER, JET DYNAMICS IMPROVE
AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AS SUCH,
EXPECT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEEK, BUT MODELS STILL CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF SHORTWAVES DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
LEADING TO PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST
OF THESE APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED. A SECOND SHORT WAVE DROPS THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT BUILDS SOUTH,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
CURRENTLY SEEING CLOUDS CLEARING OUT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, WITH
CLOUD COVER PERSISTING FURTHER SOUTH. EXPECTING GUSTS TO FALL
OFF AROUND SUNSET AT TERMINALS, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES BEGINNING AT 1Z
AT NORTHERNMOST TERMINALS AND PASSING THROUGH ALL TERMINALS
AROUND 5-6Z. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT
IS EXPECTED TO FIRE UP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH A
PROB30 FURTHER NORTH AT KSTJ FOR LESS CONFIDENCE IN
-TSRA POTENTIAL. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF TSRA, EXPECTING -SHRA
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE PERSISTENCE OF -SHRA
GOING INTO THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, SO HAVE LEFT OUT A
PROB30 FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...SPG
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