521
FXUS63 KEAX 131934
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
134 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A 15-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT,
WITH THE BEST CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT, GENERALLY A TRACE TO 0.05 OF AN INCH.
- A RETURN TO TYPICAL JANUARY TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BLUSTERY NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 30-35 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
- AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PASS FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A SHORT-
LIVED BLAST OF COLD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THERE IS
A 50-100% CHANCE OF WIND CHILL VALUES FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS DURING THIS TIME.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES
BEGINNING SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH CONTINUED DRY
WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
ONE LAST MILD DAY IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. HAVE LOWERED FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES DUE TO PLENTIFUL HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUD COVER, BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD STILL SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S (15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL).
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP
THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE. POPS REMAIN
GENERALLY IN THE 15-30% RANGE, WITH THE GREATEST VALUES SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. EVEN IN LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE RAIN, AMOUNTS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT, ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT MOST. TEMPERATURES WILL
TUMBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AFTER THE COLD FRONT'S PASSAGE.
GRADIENT WINDS WILL BECOME BLUSTERY AS WELL FROM THE N TO NW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO TYPICAL MID-JANUARY VALUES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS H5 TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. A SECONDARY SURFACE FRONT WILL
PASS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE
LACKING, BUT THERE WILL BE A BIT BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING TO
OUR NORTHEAST, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) OF
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST MO. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
AGAIN BE BLUSTERY ON FRIDAY, WITH NBM ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING
A 40-70% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OVER 35 MPH, WITH THE GREATEST
VALUES ACROSS NORTHWEST MO AND NORTHEAST KS.
AN POTENT COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING A COLDER
LOBE OF VERY CHILLY AND DRY ARCTIC AIR. THE FORECAST HAS
TRENDED DRIER, WITH NO MENTIONABLE POPS FORECAST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS STAGE. HOWEVER, THE SHORT- LIVED BLAST
OF VERY CHILLY ARCTIC AIR WILL IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
CURRENT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES FALLING TO
AROUND THE 5-10TH PERCENTILES. THIS WILL RESULT IN BELOW-NORMAL
(BY 10-15 DEGREES) HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE LOWER 20S
TO LOWER 30S FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST, RESPECTIVELY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS
TO MIDDLE TEENS ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH ACCOMPANYING WIND CHILLS
IN THE +5F TO -10F RANGE, WITH THE COLDEST VALUES AGAIN OVER
FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI.
AS THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, THE
VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL NOT LAST VERY LONG. AS H5 RIDGING
INCREASES TO OUR WEST, THE COLDEST OF THE AIR WILL BE SHUNTED
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND BY
MODERATING BACK TOWARDS NORMAL MID- JANUARY VALUES ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, BUT WILL STILL BE AROUND FIVE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO PERSIST DURING THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 00-06Z
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AT MCI, MKC, AND IXD FOR THIS PERIOD.
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP CLOUD BASES MAINLY BETWEEN 5 AND 10KFT
DURING THIS PERIOD, FOLLOWED BY RISING CLOUD BASES AND CLEARING
SKIES THEREAFTER. WINDS THROUGH 00Z WILL BE STEADY FROM THE W-SW
AROUND 10 KTS. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WINDS WILL BECOME NW
AND EVENTUALLY N AND INCREASE, SUSTAINED AT 12-16 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
25-30 KTS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SNYDER
AVIATION...SNYDER
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