329
FXUS63 KEAX 282114
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
314 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEASTERN KS AND
NORTHERN MO FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS DUE TO ICE ACCUMULATION.
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AREAWIDE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES ARE POSSIBLE.
- VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
WITH PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
CURRENT 500-HPA ANALYSIS DEPICTS A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS RESULTING IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND HAS BEEN
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT TO SUSTAIN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF US-50. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE ENTIRE AREA BECOMING DRY
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF SHOWERS,
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-
TO-UPPER 50S (COOLER IN FAR NORTHERN MO) WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE
20S AND LOWER 30S.
BY EARLY AFTERNOON TOMORROW, WAA WILL BE WORKING INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA RESULTING IN ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
LIFT SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIPITATION. THIS LIFT WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SOME FORM OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE ENTIRE AREA. WHAT FORM OF PRECIPITATION FALLS
AND IN WHAT AREAS CONTINUES TO BE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. AT THIS
POINT, TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON LOOK TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-TO-
UPPER 30S WITH SOME AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
POTENTIALLY CRACKING 40F. THUS, PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
AS RAIN AS IT BEGINS TO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER, DEW POINTS
WILL BE IN THE HIGH TEENS AND LOW 20S, SO AS PRECIPITATION FALLS
INTO THIS DRY SURFACE LAYER, TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL
TRANSITION TOWARDS THE WET BULB TEMPERATURE (IN THE LOW 30S ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA). WITH THIS TEMPERATURES BEING SO
CLOSE TO FREEZING, RAIN SHOULD TRANSITION TO SNOW (OR A RAIN/SNOW
MIX) FAIRLY QUICKLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AREAS
SOUTH OF US-50 WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO SEE PRIMARILY RAIN. ALONG
AND NORTH OF US-50, CHANCES FOR SNOW ARE HIGHER, THOUGH THE EXACT
TIMING OF A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW REMAINS TRICKY
TO DETERMINE. MOVING NORTHWARD, AREAS NORTH OF US-36 WILL BEGIN WITH
A PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SNOW.
THIS REGIME OF RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA, A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA, AND SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE AFTER SUNSET
THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE THE BEST FORCING BEGINS TO SHIFT OFF TO THE
EAST. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN VERY SATURATED THROUGH THE LOW-
LEVELS OF THE PROFILE WITH A FAIRLY STOUT WARM NOSE PRESENT BELOW 5K
FT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WITH A LIMITED AMOUNT OF LIFT REMAINING
ACROSS THE AREA, THIS PROFILE LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC DRIZZLE SOUNDING
AND WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER THIS CREATES A SCENARIO WHERE ICE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
LIKELY. WITH THE TIMING OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS LOOKING TO BE MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 9AM, THERE MAY BE IMPACTS TO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. FOR
THIS REASON, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KS AND NORTHERN MO FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN EXACTLY WHERE THE FREEZING
LINE WILL SET UP, SO THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE ADVISORY WILL NEED
TO BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD, BUT THE CURRENT ADVISORY COVERS THE AREA
OF HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS. AS TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING MONDAY MORNING, CONCERNS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH.
AREAS DRIZZLE LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT
WITH A DEEP SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE AND DRY AIR ALOFT.
WITHOUT THE SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND THE LACK OF ICE
CREATION IN THE ATMOSPHERE, FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRIZZLE. FORTUNATELY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO LARGELY REMAIN
ABOVE FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT SO ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING, IMPACTS FROM PRECIPITATION LOOK TO LESSEN.
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH ON
TUESDAY, LEADING TO UNSEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS BUILDING NORTH
TOWARDS THE I- 70 CORRIDOR. FURTHER NORTH, WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITHIN THE SATURATED LAYER REMAINS LEADING TO PROLONGED LIGHT
RAIN AND DRIZZLE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING
APPRECIABLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MODELS HAVE INCREASED THE
PROGRESSION OF THIS WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US, SO WE MAY SEE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE
BUILDING INTO THE LOWER 48. A LARGE PIECE OF MID-UPPER ENERGY
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE WEEK, WHILE
THE REMAINING ENERGY BUILDS SOUTH INTO A CUT OFF LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN US SENDING PERIODIC IMPULSES INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE VERY ACTIVE CONTINUES WITH
PERIODIC CHANCES OF RAIN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. RIGHT NOW, OBSERVING A DECK OF CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT, WITH HIGH CIRRUS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENTLY OBSERVING WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 15-20
KTS AROUND THE REGION, SO HAVE ELECTED TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS IN
THE CURRENT PREVAILING CATEGORY TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED
DAYTIME MIXING WITH GREATER SURFACE HEATING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER,
WITH WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD, TAKING OUT
MENTIONS OF GUSTS BY 20Z WITH GREATER SUSTAINED WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. AROUND 20Z, EXPECTING TO SEE WINDS SHIFT CLOCKWISE
FROM THE EAST TOWARDS THE N/NE, WITH THIS DIRECTION PREVAILING
THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE EVENING, EXPECTING WINDS TO HOVER
AROUND 10 KTS AS GUST POTENTIAL OF 15-20 KTS CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY. MENTIONABLE WINTER WEATHER HAS SHIFTED LATER THAN THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD, SO ELECTED TO MENTION LOWERING CEILINGS
AROUND THIS TIME IN ADVANCE OF WINTER WEATHER.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR MOZ001>005-011>014-020>022.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR MOZ006>008-015>017-023>025.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR KSZ025-102.
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS/BT
AVIATION...SPG
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