089
FXUS63 KEAX 131035
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
535 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020
KEY MESSAGE: CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DECREASED OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. COOLER AND DRY WEATHER ARE STILL PROJECTED FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING, A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WERE FORMING WITHIN A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC
ASCENT. MODELS HAVE DONE A FAIR JOB WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AND THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS KEEPS THE CONVECTION JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS. OVERALL,
THE AREA LOOKS TO STAY MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE DAY, WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. BY TONIGHT, A
SIMILAR SETUP OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT LOOKS TO TRANSPIRE SLIGHTLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TONIGHT'S ONGOING ACTIVITY, FURTHER ENHANCED BY
A WEAK UPPER WAVE. INDICATIONS APPEAR THAT MOST OF THIS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH, MAINLY OVER THE OZARKS IN SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
BRINGING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME,
NEITHER SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING APPEAR TO BE A CONCERN. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY INTO EARLY/MIDDLE NEXT WEEK, WITH AN EARLY TASTE OF FALL-
LIKE WEATHER ANTICIPATED.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 529 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2020
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED. BROKEN MID-LEVEL
CLOUD DECK WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS NEAR STJ. THESE SHOULD
MOVE EAST OUT OF TERMINAL SPACE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. OTHERWISE,
DIURNAL CUMULUS EXPECTED WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BLAIR
AVIATION...BLAIR
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