169
FXUS63 KEAX 131105
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
605 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A NORTHERN-STREAM SYSTEM MAY BRING A BRIEF BOUT OF LIGHT RAIN
OR SNOW TO NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE). LITTLE OR NO
MEANINGFUL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING (UP
TO A 50 PERCENT CHANCE), WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF GUSTY WINDS
MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. WRAPAROUND SNOW MAY OCCUR WITH THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
COVERAGE, TIMING, AND INTENSITY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS AS DETAILS BECOME CLEARER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH A 70+
KNOT H5 JET STREAK EXTENDING ALL THE WAY FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN WEST
OF BRITISH COLUMBIA ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. AT THE SURFACE,
A 992 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE TWIN CITIES, WITH A VERY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW ALL THE WAY
INTO THE OZARKS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE CONTINUATION OF VERY
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS - AIDED BY A 70 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE REGION - WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45
MPH. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
SURFACE LOW OVER MSP, WITH WINDS/GUSTS FINALLY BEGINNING TO COME
DOWN BY AROUND 2-4 AM, AND GUSTS RELAXING ENTIRELY BY MID TO LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH TEMPS FOR TOMORROW SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER
COMPARED TO TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH COLD ADVECTION THROUGH AT
LEAST NOON FRIDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A WARM ADVECTION REGIME BY
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS WARM ADVECTION MAY GENERATE JUST ENOUGH FORCING
FOR ASCENT TO HELP GENERATE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
THERMAL PROFILES POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.
HOWEVER, HIGHER POPS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE IOWA BORDER, AND AT
THIS TIME NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. RELATIVELY STRONG
THETA E ADVECTION COMMENCES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A WARM FRONT
PROGGED TO LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE CWA, RETURNING LOW LEVEL
FLOW TO SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID
70S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER, AND INCREASING DEW POINTS
FROM THE 20S TO LOWER 30S SATURDAY MORNING TO THE 40S BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT, A POTENT MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG
ACROSS THE ROCKIES, ENTERING THE HIGH PLAINS BY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SUB 1000 MB SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW SHOULD GENERATE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH
RESPECT TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, WITH THE GFS
BEING MUCH SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION (COMPARED TO THE ECMWF),
ALLOWING FOR THERMAL PROFILES TO COOL BEHIND THE DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT WHILE ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TO SUPPORT
SEVERAL HOURS OF WRAPAROUND SNOW. NBM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND
MORE FAVORABLY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, WITH THE MOST RECENT NBM
RUN GIVING MCI ROUGHLY A 50% CHANCE FOR SNOW TO EXCEED 1", WITH
MARYVILLE AND KIRKSVILLE AT 50% AND 70%, RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION
TO THE POTENTIAL SNOW, VERY STRONG SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATED BY THE PASSING DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW SHOULD YIELD SUSTAINED NW WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 TO EVEN 50 MPH BEHIND THE LOW/FRONT ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THUS, IF THERE IS A PERIOD IN WHICH WE HAVE BOTH DECENT
SNOWFALL RATES PAIRED WITH NW WINDS GUSTING TO 40+ MPH, VISIBILITIES
WILL TANK. CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL PLAY OUT REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A HIGH
IMPACT EVENT, SO IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT FOLKS PAY ATTENTION TO
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS AS DETAILS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL ISSUE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS SUNDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH MODEST
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY (CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG) AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR, WITH HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT
THANKS TO COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. THAT SAID, THE BETTER SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR CWA.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS MOVING FROM SOUTHERN IOWA INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES CRASH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH 925
HPA TEMPERATURES FALLING 20-25 C OVER 18 HOURS. AS COLDER AIR BUILDS
INTO THE REGION AND DENDRITIC LAYER CRASHES TOWARDS THE SURFACE,
SUFFICENT SATURATION EXISTS TO LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME SNOWFALL ACROSS
THE REGION. GFS HAS COME IN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE TROWAL,
WHILE THE ECMWF LEADING TO A LARGER SPREAD IN POSSIBLE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. LREF ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED DOWN ON ACCUMULATIONS,
BUT THE VERY STRONG WINDS (40+ KNOTS AT 925 HPA AND 45-50 KNOTS AT
850 HPA) IN COMBINATION WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WHILE SNOW IS FALLING. STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE PAST PRECIPITATION INTO MONDAY MORNING WHEN
WIND CHILL VALUES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO F, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. ONCE THE FLOW TURNS WESTERLY, TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY REBOUND AND BY MID-WEEK TEMPERATURES ARE BACK WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST
EXPANDS EAST.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 6:03 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. COULD SEE A BIT OF GUSTY
WINDS BETWEEN 14-18Z THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE REGION. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WILLIAMS
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...BT
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