166
FXUS63 KEAX 020453
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1153 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S WILL NOT PROVIDE
RELIEF FROM DAYTIME HEAT.
- MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR WEAKENING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER FAR
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI EACH EVENING.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY, JULY 4TH, IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
THE THERMAL RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US TODAY. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS RIDGE IS MOST OFTEN
ACROSS KANSAS AND NEBRASKA WITH CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY,
THOUGH DECAYING CONVECTION MAY REACH FAR NORTHWEST IOWA EACH DAY.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA EACH DAY
WITH WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S, RESULTING IN HEAT INDICIES REACHING 100-110. WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS IN PLACE THERE IS LITTLE RELIEF OVERNIGHT AS LOW ONLY
BRIEFLY TOUCH THE 70S EACH NIGHT AND LIMIT ANY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A FORCING MECHANISM
ON FRIDAY AND THESE WOULD LIKELY BE PULSEY AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS IF
THEY DEVELOP. ON SATURDAY A SHORTWAVE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE RIDGE AND
HELP TO BREAK IS DOWN FURTHER. CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
REACHES THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
HOT AND HUMID THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP IN THE EVENING
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS DEEPLY UNSTABLE WITH 3500-
4000+ J/KG OF CAPE BUT VERY LITTLE SHEAR TO ORGANIZE STORMS.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BEYOND SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS. SHOULD THE RIDGE REBUILD FASTER THEN A QUICK
RETURN OF HEAT WITH LESS STORMS IS MORE LIKELY, WHILE SLOWER REBUILD
OF THE RIDGE WOULD ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LOWER (RELATIVELY LOWER, STILL VERY WARM) TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER SUNRISE, HIGH
CLOUDS LOOK TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO SCT ALONG THE MO/KS
BORDER. CLOUD COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS
NW MO; FURTHER SOUTH, IMPROVEMENTS TO FEW OR SKC DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON HOURS IS POSSIBLE. THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KTS/GUSTS TO 20 KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
DISCUSSION...HAGENHOFF
AVIATION...MACKO
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