034
FXUS63 KEAX 182006
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
306 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
UPPER LEVELS FEATURE A RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST WITH A TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
MO ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NE AND IA. AND A POPUP
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA DUE TO
UNSTABLE, MOIST ATMOSPHERE, AND LIFT WHICH WILL BE WEAK AT BEST SO
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TONIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTH AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP
DUE TO UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S.
FRIDAY CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS AREA. SO EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION.
A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE
MODELS ARE TRENDING UPWARD TO AROUND 2" EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BASED
ON SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, THIS IS NEAR THE MAX VALUE AND MORE THAN
HALF AN INCH ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WITH MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION
CONTINUING TO SHOW UP THROUGH DEEP LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND
UPPER-LEVEL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE PACIFIC, THIS EXTREMELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS VERY POSSIBLE. THEN THROW IN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, AND LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LEADING SLOW MOVEMENT AND/OR TRAINING, IT LOOKS LIKE SOME
AREAS WILL SEE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. THERE ARE STILL TIMING/LOCATION DISCREPANCIES IN THE
MODELS BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN TO BE IN OR CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RESULTS IN RELATIVELY LOW POPS GIVEN THE HIGH QPF. AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND WE'LL BE BETTER ABLE TO PLACE AREAS OF HIGHER QPF WITH MORE CONFIDENCE. BUT FOR NOW, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS INCREASING DURING DAYTIME
HOURS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHRISTENSEN
AVIATION...CHRISTENSEN
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