468
FXUS63 KEAX 051114
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
614 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ECHOES SHOWING UP IN EASTERN KS. THIS APPEARS TO
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK, SUBTLE WAVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN KS,
PROVIDING ENOUGH ASCENT TO GET SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THE RAP
ACTUALLY SHOWS THIS WAVE AT THE 500MB AND 400 MB LEVELS THAT THEN
TRACKS TO THE EAST INTO WESTERN MO BY 18Z. CONFIDENCE IS THIS
ACTIVITY SURVIVING WELL INTO THE DAY IS LOW SO HAVE JUST TAKEN
POPS TO AROUND 15Z.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
KEY MESSAGE
* HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 100-110 FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK OVER THE CWA
* WEDNESDAY COULD BRING A VERY SLIGHT DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND
WEAK SCATTERED SHOWERS TO NORTHERN MISSOURI
WITH CONSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING WARMER, MOIST AIR FROM THE
SOUTH, HOT HUMID DAYS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. THERE IS A
MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SOME RIDGING TO THE WEST. WITH
MISSOURI BEING IN A REGION OF MILD UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE, THIS
WILL HINDER UPWARD MOTION LIMITING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE. THE JET REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH
LEAVING WINDS RATHER WEAK IN THE UPPER LEVELS. WITH A STAGNANT
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.
MOVING INTO WEDNESDAY, THERE IS A RATHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ALONG THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. THE NAM AND GFS
AGREE ON THE PLACEMENT AND TRACK OF THE TROUGH, HOWEVER THE NAM
MOVES IT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART OF IOWA A LITTLE BIT FASTER. WITH
THE INCREASED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH, A SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUD DECK MAY DEVELOP IN THE MID LEVELS IN THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE CWA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK WILL ALSO
BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WITH RELATIVELY LOW
CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THERE MAY BE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE NORTHERN PART OF MISSOURI, BUT A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. SKEW-T'S SHOW A RATHER
DECENT CAP WHICH MAY INHIBIT PRECIPITATION. OUTSIDE OF WEDNESDAY
HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 105 FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. THIS
IS MAINLY A RESULT OF THE DURATION OF THE HEAT EXTENDING INTO A
4TH DAY RATHER THAN HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 110. SOME OF THIS
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY BUT CONFIDENCE DECREASES
FURTHER OUT DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION.
THE GFS IS SHOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DURING THE
WEEKEND, LEAVING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MORE ZONAL. AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST WINDS MAY SHIFT TO A MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION THE HUMIDITY IS STILL EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH STEADY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN
EASTERN KS SO HAVE ADDED SOME VCSH TO THE IXD FORECAST. IT'S
POSSIBLE THIS ACTIVITY HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE
MKC AND MCI TERMINALS. BUT EVEN IF IT DOES, IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. LATE TONIGHT, THE CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INCREASE SO HAVE ADDED A VCTS GROUP TO STJ, MCI, AND
MKC TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ057-060-
103>105.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ025-102.
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 11 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ028-029-
037>040-043>046-053-054.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
020>025-030>033.
UPDATE...CDB
DISCUSSION...COLLIER/CDB
AVIATION...CDB
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