356
FXUS63 KEAX 190921
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
321 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN RETURNS STARTING TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS TRENDING TOWARDS CENTRAL MISSOURI. NO SEVERE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED.
- RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.5" TO 1.5" ARE FORECASTED WITH 0.5" TO 1" OF
RAIN EXPECTED NORTH OF I-70 AND 1" TO 1.5" OF RAIN EXPECTED SOUTH OF
THE INTERSTATE. UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN FORECASTED PRECIP TOTALS.
- CONDITIONS TRENDING COOLER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK-WEEK,
NEARING SEASONAL AVERAGES BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. THE WEEKEND WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY.
- PRECIP CHANCES (20-40%) RETURN MONDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. BETTER CHANCES REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH NEAR SOUTHERN MO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST WED NOV 19 2025
A CURRENT GEOCOLOR SATELLITE SHOT (AS OF 8Z) IS SHOWING A SWATHE OF
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST. FOR NOW, THE STRATUS DECK HAS REMAINED TO THE NORTH
OF I-70 GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE KC METRO. A FEW AREAS (MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE KC METRO) HAVE SEEN MINOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LIGHT PATCHY FOG. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE
RESTRICTIONS AND LOW-LYING STRATUS ERODES BY LATE MORNING AS WE
TRANSITION INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT TODAY TO BE MOSTLY QUIET WITH
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVER THE AREA. THE LOW-LYING
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL BE REPLACED BY MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVERAGE FARTHER
NORTH, AREAS NORTH OF I-70 WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. AREAS SOUTH OF
I-70 WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
A WEAKENING H500 LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TODAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT EMERGING OUT THE FRONT RANGE LATER
TONIGHT. AS THE WARM FRONT APPROACHES OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH
COUPLED WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE, WILL BE THE CATALYSTS FOR OUR
STRETCH OF WETTER CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THURSDAY. FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES (UP TO 30%) ANTICIPATED THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCES (50-70%) REMAINING SOUTH OF I-70.
PRECIP CHANCES LINGER INTO LATE FRIDAY EXTENDING FARTHER NORTH
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
PROVIDING BETTER FORCING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING
OUR WET STRETCH DESPITE DECENT SHEAR BEING PRESENT. GIVEN THE
WEAK INSTABILITY (LESS THAN 300 J/KG OF MUCAPE) AND OVERALL
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD,
SHOWERS WILL BE MOST LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM
REMAINING ISOLATED IN NATURE. PWATS INCREASE ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, RANGING AROUND .8-1”. IF
SHOWERS BECOME LESS PROGRESSIVE, THERE COULD BE A FEW INSTANCES
OF BRIEF DOWNPOURS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND A
LITTLE DRIER WITH RAIN TOTALS NORTH OF I-70 AROUND .5-1” AND
AREAS SOUTH 1-1.5”. THAT BEING SAID, ANY FLOODING CONCERNS
REMAIN VERY LOW GIVEN THE RECENT DRY CONDITIONS. BETTER CHANCES
FOR HIGHER PRECIP TOTALS REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA. THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP WILL
EXTEND AS SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ON WARM FRONT PLACEMENT. THE ECMWF
KEEPS THE MOST OF THE PRECIP IN OUR AREA NEAR THE KC METRO
VERSUS THE GFS BRINGING PRECIP HIGHER NORTH NEAR THE MO/IA
BORDER. FOR NOW, THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS.
WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WORK-WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COOLER INTO FRIDAY. THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS TRACK TO THE
EAST OF THE AREA, PRECIP CHANCES DECREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE JUST ENOUGH TO STAVE OFF PRECIP
CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SHOWERS
COME MONDAY WITH ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR AREA NEAR THE TX/OK BORDER. FOR NOW, INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE KEEPING SEVERE CHANCES VERY LOW. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BRING NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY MID-NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2025
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF LOW STRATUS IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MO AND WILL SPREAD INTO THE STJ AREA WITHIN THE NEXT
30-60 MINUTES. THIS STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO MCI 9-10Z, MKC 10-11Z, AND IXD
AROUND 12Z, THOUGH THAT SITE IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN BEING ON
THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS. STRATUS ERODES FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH ALL
TERMINALS MOVING OUT OF THE STRATUS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...CDB
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