499
FXUS63 KEAX 161720
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1120 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TODAY
- TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEKEND, START OF NEXT WEEK
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL FEATURES ARE PRESENT OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS
OF THE CONUS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DRIVE A VERY COLD AIRMASS INTO THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, DEEP CYCLONE CENTERED OVER ONTARIO IS MOVING
EASTWARD, WITH PRESSURE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DRAGGING
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
THERE IS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAKOTA'S THIS
MORNING. ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT, A STRONGER H5 VORT MAXIMA
ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE AXIS WILL INCREASE LIFT LATER
THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT, WITH LIFT STILL POSSIBLE
EVEN AFTER THE PRIMARY FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY
SEEING CLOUD COVER ON GOES NIGHTTIME PHYSICS IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE, TIED MAINLY TO THE MID-
LEVEL SHORT-WAVE. CURRENTLY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN VERY
DRY, THEREFORE, THE RADAR RETURNS NOTED EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE NOT
BEEN PRODUCING ANYTHING AT THE SURFACE, YET. PERHAPS SOME FLURRY
ACTIVITY COULD BE SPOTTED.
AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH THE FIRST MID-
LEVEL VORT MAXIMA EXITING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. STRONGER CAA BETWEEN
700MB-500MB WILL HELP TO STEEPEN MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, MEANWHILE,
WARMING NEAR THE SURFACE FROM INSOLATION WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
MODEST INSTABILITY. OVER THE PAST FEW CAM RUNS, 0-3KM CAPE VALUES
ARE PROGGED TO REACH 80-100 J/KG JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND
IN ANOTHER AREA OF STRONGER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ABOVE 700MB.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED, BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW
DENDRITE DEVELOPMENT WITH MOISTURE BEING LOCATED WITHIN A FAVORABLE
DGZ. COUPLE THAT WITH THE INSTABILITY AND A FEW SOURCES OF BROAD
SCALE LIFT, WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING SNOW SHOWERS, AND SOME
LIKELY TO DEMONSTRATE CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR. A PEAK AT SIMULATED
REFLECTIVITY FROM CAM OUTPUT HINTS AT THIS, WITH BANDED SNOWFALL
LIKE FEATURES PRESENT. WITH WINDS AROUND 30-35 KTS TOWARD THE TOP OF
THE PROGGED MIXED LAYER, COULD RESULT IN SNOW SHOWER BURSTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH VISIBILITY DROPPING BELOW ONE MILE FOR SHORT
PERIODS OF TIME. THE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT DOES PROVIDE SOME
SUGGESTION FOR SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED MOISTURE
MAY PREVENT SHOWERS FROM ACHIEVING ACTUAL SNOW SQUALL CRITERIA.
MESOANALYSIS WILL BE IMPORTANT THIS AFTERNOON TO WATCH FOR CHANGING
CONDITIONS. AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED. WITH THE GUSTY WINDS, GETTING AN ACCURATE MEASUREMENT
ANYWHERE WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT. FURTHER, DAYTIME HEATING IS
EXPECTED TO BOOST SURFACE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER
40S TODAY, PROMOTING MELTING THAT WILL ALSO LIMIT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. IT IS A BIT ODD TO BE TALKING ABOUT SNOW SHOWERS WITH
SURFACE TEMPERATURES FORECAST THIS WARM, BUT THEIR OCCURRENCE IS
LIKELY GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING AND INSTABILITY THAT IS EXPECTED. IN
PERIODS ABSENT OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY, PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
QUITE STRONG WITH PRESSURE FALLS EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD OZARKS
REGION WITH DCVA HEADING TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR, WHILE A
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WIND
GUSTS ABOVE 25 MPH MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE COLD
FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT, WITH DRIER AIR
EVENTUALLY BRINING AN END TO SNOW ACTIVITY.
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY
STRONG CLOSED-LOW SYSTEM THAT REMAINS PARKED BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES REGION AND HUDSON BAY, SENDING MULTIPLE MID-LEVEL VORT
MAXIMA INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT CAA. THIS
POLAR AIRMASS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH WIND CHILLS LIKELY
TO DIP BELOW ZERO DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MOISTURE WILL BE HARD TO
COME BY, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME SCATTERED FLURRY
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS PUSHES OF CAA COME AND GO, AND
PASSING MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL
FOR A SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA, THAT COULD BRING
SOME PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY LATE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON HOW THE PATTERN OVER THE GREAT LAKES
EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEK THOUGH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OR EVEN SNOW SQUALLS WITH BRIEF, BUT
SIGNIFICANT, VSBY REDUCTIONS, MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 18Z
AND 02Z. HAVE ADDED TEMPO 4SM SNSH PERIODS TO ALL TERMINALS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY, WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN BETWEEN 22-24Z
AT MCI AND 23-01Z AT MKC. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR LOWER VSBY
REDUCTIONS AS CONDITIONS WARRANT. WINDS FROM THE W-NW AT 15-25 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE RELAXING.
CLOUD BASES SHOULD MAINLY BETWEEN 4-6KFT BUT BRIEF LOWER REDUCTIONS
TO MVFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SNYDER
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...SNYDER
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