685
FXUS63 KEAX 071110
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
610 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 100S LIKELY (GREATER
THAN 60 PERCENT CHANCE) SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
- SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS (MOSTLY LESS THAN 30 PERCENT)
THROUGH SUNDAY (WITH BEST CHANCES NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 36).
IF STORMS OCCUR, AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
- CHANCES FOR STORMS INCREASE IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS
OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN AS WELL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
THERE ARE A LOT OF FORECAST CONSIDERATIONS IN THE SHORT TERM,
BUT OVERALL, THE FORCING MECHANISMS FOR ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER OF
NOTE IN OUR AREA ARE RATHER NEBULOUS. THUS, PROBABLY THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE BUILDING HEAT
RETURNING TO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO PROVIDE
PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. PERTURBATIONS
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ARE, AS USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR, RATHER LOW-AMPLITUDE. NEVERTHELESS, A NOTABLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIES OF CANADA INTO THE FAR
NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL INTENSIFY GRADUALLY TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RATHER EARLY IN THE
DIURNAL CYCLE. CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE AGREEMENT ON TIMING, COVERAGE, AND EVOLUTION OF
INITIATING STORMS, RENDERING QUITE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL
STORM THREAT IN OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SYNOPTICALLY, THE MAIN THREAT FOR STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO BE TO
OUR NORTH, WITH THE STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER, CAMS ARE
HINTING AT SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTION
WITH TIME DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH GENERAL DECAY
OF CONVECTION AS THE STORMS REACH NORTHERN MISSOURI. SOME
MODELS (E.G., THE 00Z RRFS/NAM NEST) WOULD SUGGEST SOUTHWARD
MIGRATION OF THE STORMS TO AREAS NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 36
(PARTICULARLY EAST OF I-35) LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERS (E.G., THE 00Z HRRR) ARE MUCH FARTHER
EAST WITH SUCH PROPAGATION, AND DECAY THE CONVECTION MUCH MORE
QUICKLY. FOR NOW, THINK OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR STORMS IN OUR CWA
WARRANTS SLIGHT-CHANCE POPS AT MOST, AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO
OUR FAR NORTH/NORTHEAST CWA.
OF MORE IMMEDIATE CONCERN ARE THE STORMS DEVELOPING IN EASTERN
KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING. CAMS HAVE BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT IN
KEEPING THIS CONVECTION TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA, BEFORE THE STORMS DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE NOCTURNAL
LOW-LEVEL JET WEAKENS. SO FAR, RADAR TRENDS ARE HOLDING HERE,
BUT DO THINK SOME LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED FOR AREAS WEST AND
SOUTH OF THE KC METRO EARLY THIS MORNING. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST WILL
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF
THESE STORMS, WHICH MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES AT BAY SOMEWHAT, AT
LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, SO CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR WARMER HIGHS
TODAY (MID TO UPPER 80S, GENERALLY).
ANOTHER MORE PRESSING CONCERN IS FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING IN
NORTHERN MISSOURI. IN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN EASTERN KANSAS,
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES FOG DEVELOPING IN NEBRASKA AND IOWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS FOG WILL LIKELY SEEP INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI, AND MAY PROVE TO BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AROUND
DAYBREAK. ANY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
SOME ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN
THE WAKE OF ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING.
THE FORECAST REMAINS SIMILARLY CHALLENGING FOR SATURDAY, WITH
CAMS CONTINUING TO EXHIBIT POOR AGREEMENT AND LESS-THAN-DESIRED
RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY. ANOTHER WEAK PERTURBATION WILL MOVE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH ONE OR MORE
MCSS DEVELOPING IN THIS REGIME SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. OF COURSE, HOW THIS TRANSPIRES IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
WHAT DEVELOPS BEFOREHAND. CAMS ARE, IN PARTICULAR, STRUGGLING
WITH THE EVOLUTION OF AN EARLY-DAY MCS IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA. THE MCS MAY DIURNALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE
MISSOURI VALLEY, OR THE MCS MAY PERSIST LONG ENOUGH TO BECOME
REINVIGORATED BY BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING DOWNSTREAM. THIS MAY
BRING CONVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, BUT THIS IS ALSO OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. ON THE
OTHER HAND, IN THE ABSENCE OF THIS PREDECESSOR MCS, MORE STORMS
MAY DEVELOP TO OUR NORTH/WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
WHATEVER SCENARIO WINS, THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA WOULD AGAIN
BE CLOSER TO THE STRONGER LARGER-SCALE LIFT, AND THIS IS WHERE
HIGHER POPS RESIDE (30-50 PERCENT).
WITH TIME, THE BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR WEST SHOULD KEEP THE STORMS
FARTHER AND FARTHER NORTH OF THE AREA. THUS, EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM DURING THE WEEKEND, WITH WIDESPREAD 90S
AND HEAT INDICES OF 95-105 ON SATURDAY AND MOSTLY IN THE 100S ON
SUNDAY. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THAT STORMS WILL BE RELATIVELY
SPARSE AND OF LOW DURATION SUFFICIENT TO CURB ANY COOLING
EFFECTS IN THE REGION, HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 254 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
AS THE SEASONALLY NEBULOUS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BROAD WESTERN-U.S. RIDGING SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT AROUND FOR
AT LEAST MONDAY AND LIKELY INTO TUESDAY (PARTICULARLY FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA). HOWEVER, WITH TIME, PERTURBATIONS
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN-U.S. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CHIP AWAY AT
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE, ALLOWING FOR CLOSER INTRUSIONS
OF ATTENDANT CONVECTION AND COOLER AIR UPSTREAM OF THE
PERTURBATIONS. OF COURSE, MODEL GUIDANCE IS EXHIBITING A LOT OF
SPREAD IN THE DETAILS BY THIS POINT, PARTICULARLY WITH TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THUS, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS RATHER LOW WITH THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD FOR THE
REGION AROUND THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. WITH
PERTURBATION AFTER PERTURBATION DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
MIDWEST, MULTIPLE PHENOMENA WILL EXIST TO INITIATE AND MAINTAIN
STORMS AT TIMES. THIS PROCESS WILL ALSO SHUNT THE LARGER-SCALE
RIDGING TO THE WEST OF THE REGION. COLD FRONTS SHOULD
SUCCESSFULLY MOVE INTO/THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER IN THE
WEEK, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE COOLER 80S AS THE WEEK
ROLLS ON. WITH THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST, CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE HIGHER, PROBABLY AROUND AVERAGE FOR A 7-DAY FORECAST IN
THE WARM SEASON.
ONE THING TO WATCH WITH THIS EVOLVING PATTERN IS IF REPEATED
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE GENERATED IN A GEOGRAPHICALLY CONFINED
REGION. IF SO, THIS WOULD INCREASE THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT
WITH TIME. SUCH A THREAT MAY ENCOMPASS PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.
HOWEVER, WE WILL NEED FAR MORE AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY AMONG
MODEL GUIDANCE BEFORE PROVIDING SPECIFICS ON THIS POTENTIALLY
EMERGING THREAT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
STORMS HAVE STAYED TO THE WEST OF THE TAF SITES, AND FOG HAS
STAYED TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
BRIEFLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT STJ AND MCI THROUGH 14Z, BUT
THINK PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. VFR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, THOUGH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME FOG EXISTS TONIGHT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CMS
LONG TERM...CMS
AVIATION...CMS
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