446
FXUS63 KEAX 170407
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1107 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021
KEY MESSAGES...
1. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.00
INCHES.
2. LATE SPRING COLD SNAP NEXT WEEK. BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. RAIN AND SOME SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN
TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.
DETAILED DISCUSSION...
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. AIDED
BY THE ARRIVAL OF THE H500 SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST, MOST OF OUR
RAINFALL TODAY IS ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN, WITH BROAD FORCING FOR
ASCENT SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA PAIRED WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL MOISTURE.
EXPECT RAINFALL TO START TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING,
WITH MORE FOCUS FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI
SATURDAY MORNING. FOLLOWING QUICKLY, SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A SECOND
SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, SKIRTING
NE/IA, BRINGING A SECOND SHOT AT LIGHT RAIN AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. OFF AND ON SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, INTO SUNDAY, BEFORE TAPERING OFF THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN NOW AND EARLY SUNDAY WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND A HALF INCH TO AN INCH OVERALL.
EARLY NEXT WEEK, A LATE SPRING COLD SNAP IS EXPECTED. MID TO LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DOUBLE DOWN ON THE ARRIVAL OF
UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. NOT TO RE-HASH JARED'S DISCUSSION
FROM THIS MORNING TOO MUCH, BUT A BROAD COLD FRONT WILL LAG
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SINKING TOWARD THE MO/IA
BORDER BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS ABOUT A 6 HOUR TIME DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE LATEST SOLUTIONS, WHICH WILL MATTER GREATLY FOR THE COLD
AIR ARRIVAL. OF NOTE, H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DIP WELL BELOW 0 C,
BETWEEN ABOUT -5 AND -10 C. AMPLE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY, WITH A RAIN-SNOW MIX POSSIBLE. CURRENT TUESDAY
MORNING LOWS WILL DIP AROUND FREEZING TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN MO AND NORTHEASTERN KANSAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S DURING THE DAY.
WITH THAT SAID, THAT MEANS IF SNOW FLAKES DO FALL, THEY'RE NOT GOING
TO STICK AROUND TOO LONG OR ENOUGH TO CAUSE A PROBLEM.
KEEP CHECKING THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THERE'S SOME FAILURE
MODES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AT PLAY WITH THE RAIN-SNOW MIX; TIMING,
TEMPERATURES, ETC, SO KEEP AWARE AND WE'LL UPDATE AS WE KNOW MORE
AND MOVE CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT FRI APR 16 2021
LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE CONTINUES AROUND THE AREA, BUT SHOULD BE
MOVING EAST OF THE TERMINALS WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CIGS HAVE
BEEN FLUCTUATING A LITTLE BIT THIS EVENING, BUT MVFR CIGS ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AT WHICH POINT LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT
AND RETURN CONDITIONS TO VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE TAF. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KURTZ
AVIATION...BMW
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