383
FXUS63 KEAX 261122
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
622 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT IS EXPECTED TODAY AREA WIDE. HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 105-115 ANTICIPATED. HAZARDOUS HEAT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY. HEAT INDICES EASE SLIGHTLY AVERAGING AROUND
100-105.
- THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR AIR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND MONDAY
TO REACH 100F.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI,
WHICH COULD IMPACT HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
- TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES LOWER THROUGH THE WEEK;
HOWEVER, HEAT INDICES SETTLE AROUND 100F.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
RIDGING AND NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANSIVE HIGH ACROSS THE EASTERN
FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES WHILE LOWER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING
ACROSS THE GULF COAST. THIS HAS CREATED AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS BOOSTED BY
ANTECEDENT SATURATED AIR WHICH BECOME READILY APPARENT THE
MOMENT YOU STEP OUTSIDE. DEW POINT VALUES SATURDAY REACH OR
EXCEEDED 80 DEGREES MAKING IT FEEL QUITE UNPLEASANT OUTSIDE.
THIS LAUNCHED HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL PAST 105-110 WITH SOME
AREAS REACHING 115 TO EVEN 120 DEGREES. HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING THESE VALUES IS ONCE AGAIN A POSSIBILITY TODAY.
THE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE PAST 24
HOURS PLACING US IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THIS ORIENT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WHICH TYPICALLY TAMPERS
HEAT EXPECTATION; HOWEVER, THE ALREADY HOT AND HUMID
ENVIRONMENT MENTIONED EARLIER COMBINED WITH STEADY WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS MORE THAN SUFFICIENTLY COUNTERACTED ANY
POTENTIAL UPPER LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. IT ALSO DOES NOT HELP
THAT THERE HAS BEEN ADDITIONAL PUSHES OF WARM AIR ACROSS THE
FRONT RANGE FROM THE SW CONUS COMBINED WITH OROGRAPHICALLY
WARMED AIR ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. THIS RESULTS IN FEW AREAS FOR
COOLER CONDITIONS TO COME FROM. HOWEVER, WHAT IS NW UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS ABLE TO TAP INTO IS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR. THIS IRONICALLY
MAY CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE EVEN HIGHER THAN ANTICIPATED WITH
AN ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES OF 100F NOT OUT OF REACH. SHORT TERM
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE PAINTS HIGH PROBABILITIES OF THIS IF THE
UPPER LEVEL DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO MIX DOWNWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS POTENTIAL RISE INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS IS NOT
EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST THAT MUCH AS THE RISE
IN AIR TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A DROP IN DEW
POINT WHICH BALANCES OUT YIELDING A SIMILAR HEAT INDEX VALUE.
MONDAY CONTINUES TO HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTIES. SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY EAT AWAY AT THE LOWER LEVEL RIDGING
PRESENTING A POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. ANY OVERNIGHT
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY ISOLATED; HOWEVER, THEM PLUS
ANY RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HEAT OUTLOOKS FOR
MONDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE CONFIDENT IN ANOTHER DAY OF
HAZARDOUS HEAT MONDAY; HOWEVER, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO RISE ABOVE EXTREME HEAT THRESHOLDS.
WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE OBSERVATIONS AND FORECASTS PAN OUT TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
AFTER MONDAY, EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN TO EASE UP AS
WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. GREATER
FORECAST DEVIATIONS UNFOLD AT THIS POINT IN THE PERIOD, WITH POORER
RESOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, THE GENERAL GIST OF
THE FUTURE FORECAST IS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES BRINGING POPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK,
WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT REMAINING UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
SOME BR IMPACTS CONTINUE AT STJ DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE;
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SKY COVERAGE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO OPEN
UP LEAVING SCT HIGH CLOUDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS
REMAIN GENERALLY SW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-
054.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ025-
057-060-102>105.
SHORT TERM...PESEL
LONG TERM...SPG
AVIATION...PESEL
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