983
FXUS63 KEAX 202305
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
505 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT WITH RECORD LOW POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH MCI (-6F) AND STJ (-11F).
- WIND CHILL VALUES AS COLD AS -25 IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN
MO TUESDAY MORNING.
- CHANCE FOR A DUSTING TO HALF AN INCH OF SNOW WEDNESDAY/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN MO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
AT 19Z, A STRONG 1045+MB HIGH PRESSURE AREA WAS SLIDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS
PERSISTING, BEING SLIGHTLY OFFSET BY DIURNAL HEATING. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS TODAY IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA. TONIGHT, AS THAT
LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO, LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE
FORECAST AREA. IT WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL DAILY LOW
TEMPERATURES RECORDS AT BOTH MCI AND STJ. THE RECORD LOW AT MCI
IS -6 AND THERE'S ROUGHLY A 50% CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPERATURES
LESS THAN THAT. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS A LOW OF -6 FORECAST
FOR MCI AND OVERALL IS CLOSE TO THE 50TH PERCENTILE. FOR STJ,
THE RECORD LOW IS -11. THAT RECORD IS ALSO IN REACH, ESPECIALLY
WITH COLD AIR DRAINAGE INTO THE RIVER VALLEY. ONE THING THAT
MAY PREVENT THESE TEMPERATURES FROM BEING MET IS THAT THE
SURFACE HIGH IS TRANSIENT AND DOESN'T SETTLE OVER THE AREA. AND
THAT LIMITS THE TIME FOR NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KS AND WESTERN
MO, AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME WINDS WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES. THIS LEADS TO WIND CHILL VALUES AS COLD
AS -25 FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN MO.
WITH THAT HIGH PRESSURE AREA QUICKLY MOVING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WE'LL
SEE WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENCE FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY, WITH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS. BUT BY WEDNESDAY,
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THAT
LEADS INTO THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BROAD BUT ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING WITHIN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THIS CLIPPER SYSTEM,
WHILE SHORT ON MOISTURE, WILL HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO WRING-OUT WHAT
LITTLE MOISTURE THERE IS SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MO.
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS A 50% OR HIGHER CHANCE FOR A DUSTING OF NOW
NORTH OF THE RIVER. PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS DECREASE
QUICKLY WITH THE CHANCE FOR HALF AN INCH JUST 20% ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MO. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL, HAVE INCREASED POPS NORTH OF THE
RIVER AND GIVEN SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF, HAVE SOME
MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO HALF AN INCH IN FAR NORTHERN MO.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 502 PM CST MON JAN 20 2025
ARCTIC FRONT IS EXPECTED PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, COULD SEE MARGINALLY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH 08Z. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW FLURRIES UP TOWARDS THE
IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER TEMPORARILY REDUCING THE VISIBILITY THROUGH
03Z. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ON TUESDAY, AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER
19Z. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR KSZ025-057-
060-102>105.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...BT
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