311
FXUS63 KEAX 291123
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
523 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS REACHING -15 F SATURDAY
MORNING.
* SEVERAL LIGHT SNOW EVENTS POSSIBLE TODAY, FRIDAY, SUNDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
REGIONAL RADAR IS BEGINNING TO DEPICT WEAK FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF SNOW
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI AS OF 08Z. THIS BAND, ASSOCIATED WITH 700 MB
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING, IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND IS FIGHTING A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. WITH THE UPPER JET
LARGELY SEPARATED INTO TWO BRANCHES- ONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA AND THE STRONGEST FOCUSED SOUTH, THERE IS LITTLE ADDITIONAL
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THIS BAND. AS SUCH, LARGELY EXPECT FLURRIES
WITH THIS BAND AS IT WORKS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, THOUGH
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (A TENTH OR TWO)
ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER. HREF ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS 20-40 %
CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI, WITH
SIMILAR PROBABILITIES WITH THE HREF. PROBABILITIES DECREASE
GRADUALLY AS THE BAND BUILDS SOUTH AND EAST AS FRONTOGENESIS WEAKENS
EVEN FURTHER AND THE DRY AIR POURS INTO THE REGION UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. 00Z TOP SOUNDING SHOWS 925 HPA
JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW FREEZING, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL NEARLY 5 C THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, AND CONTINUE TO FALL ANOTHER
FEW DEGREES TODAY. AS SUCH, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
LITTLE TODAY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL TONIGHT AS ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER
EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN PUSHES SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN PLAINS.
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH WILL LEAD TO
CLEARING SKIES BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST, BUT
COULD SEE A SHALLOW LAYER OF CUMULUS DEVELOP ON FRIDAY COINCIDENT
WITH THE DENDRITIC LAYER LEADING TO A FEW MORE FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY TIME HOURS. THIS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIE AWAY
FRIDAY EVENING, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SUB-ZERO
RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING, LREF ENSEMBLE STILL
SUGGESTS A 20-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS ECLIPSING -15 F. WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
AND SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO BUILD ON THE WARMING ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW ON FRIDAY CRESTS THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST AND THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
CENTRAL US BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COULD BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOW TO THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. LREF ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES RANGE
FROM 30-50% FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG THE IOWA/MISSOURI
BORDER. PROBABILITIES SUGGEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY; HOWEVER, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY
MODERATING EXPECTATIONS FOR A TEMPERATURE RECOVERY. TEMPERATURE
TRENDS WILL BE CRITICAL LATER ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION LEADS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST THU JAN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST.
FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW MAY BUILD SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ANY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY WILL LIKELY BE TEMPORARY, SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
LESS THAN 10KTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WINDS VARYING
FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH LATE IN THE FORECAST, AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT
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