585
FXUS63 KEAX 112343
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
643 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO AROUND 40MPH WILL OCCUR AT TIMES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9PM THURSDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY, WITH LIGHT
SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
THE RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CLOUDY
SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE CLOUDS WILL
CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE HIGH, RESULTING IN BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
OVER THE REGION WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
AS LOWS COOL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO NEAR 30 TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
THE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE WINDY AS GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH OCCUR
AT TIMES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. A
DRIER AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE OVER THE AREA ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI WHICH SAW THE LEAST AMOUNT OF RAIN WITH
THE SYSTEM YESTERDAY INTO THIS MORNING. HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST
MISSOURI FROM NOON TO 9PM THURSDAY WHERE RH VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 25% AND WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH
OCCUR AT TIMES. THESE DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A
DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
LIMITED SO THE FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA DRY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S FROM NORTH OF SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THE WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO THE LOWER 70S
ACROSS EXTREME EAST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW EMBEDDED NON SEVERE STORMS ON SUNDAY. A COLDER AIR
MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS AIR MASS. HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE 50S ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE
ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY. AS THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
BUT COULD SEE A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW MAINLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES IF/WHERE ANY PRECIPITATION CAN LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS TO THE 20S BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
SKIES HAVE FINALLY CLEARED OVER THE TERMINALS, RETURNING
CONDITIONS TO VFR, WITH NW WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS. WINDS SHOULD FINALLY RELAX BY AROUND 2Z TONIGHT, WITH
WINDS TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY BY THURSDAY MORNING. SW WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS, INCREASING FURTHER WITH SUSTAINED WINDS ON THE ORDER OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS BY MID AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ001>004-
011>013-020-021-028.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR KSZ025-102-
103.
SHORT TERM...WFO EAX
LONG TERM...WFO EAX
AVIATION...BMW
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