415
FXUS63 KEAX 221135
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
635 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK
- FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING, CLOUD CONDITIONS SLOWLY CLEAR UP
THROUGH AFTERNOON
- PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY, THROUGH
WEEKEND
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CURRENTLY SITS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GREAT LAKES REGION BUT ITS STRENGTHENING HAS BEEN STALLED BY AN H5
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH THAT SITS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS SETUP HAS RESULTED IN AN INVERSION AROUND
800MB FOR MOST OF THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE STILL TRAPPED UNDERNEATH IT. WITH WEAK EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS, FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH SCATTERED
REPORTS OF DRIZZLE, AND OVERALL A THICK STRATUS DECK JUST A FEW
HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH
MOST OF THE MORNING AND EVEN EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA. A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE IS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS MORNING
AND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD, WHICH WILL BEING TO PROVIDE H5
HEIGHT RISES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL HELP TO PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE AND ALSO ALLOW THE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONE NORTH OF THE AREA TO AND EXPAND SOUTHWARD,
EVENTUALLY CLEARING OUT THE LOW STRATIFORM CLOUD DECK AND ALSO
BRINGING AN END TO ANY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLE ACTIVITY. MID TO
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY, PREVENTING ANY WAA
REGIME FROM DEVELOPING AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THIS WEAK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
NORTH OF HWY. 36, WITH AREAS SOUTHWARD HITTING THE LOWER 70S FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY, WE WILL START TO SEE A MODEST A INCREASE IN
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEAK,
ESPECIALLY WITH STRONG WAA AT 850MB LARGELY DRIVING THE MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT RISES AND PUSHING THIS EASTWARD. WITH NO NOTABLE FORCING
MECHANISMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS
FALLING 500MB HEIGHTS JUST TO OUR WEST AND SHORTWAVES COMING OFF OF
THE ROCKIES FROM A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. A HIGH AT THE SURFACE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL RESULT IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO EASTERN KS. WITH
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE AT THE SURFACE WE COULD
SEE SOME RAIN IN OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY BUT
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN OFF TO
OUR WEST UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING WITH ABOUT A 15-30% CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT IN NW MO GRADUALLY INCREASING TO A 50-60% CHANCE
FRIDAY MORNING FOR NW MO AND 30-50% CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE ANY THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AS INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE PRETTY
WEAK.
THE GREATER CHANCE FOR RAIN MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS 500MB HEIGHTS
CONTINUING TO FALL AS WE MOVE INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW AND THE CLOSED
LOW OFF THE EAST COAST STARTS TO LIFT FURTHER NORTH. THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF INTO OUR AREA SUPPORTING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WE COULD HEAR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE RAIN ON
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING WEAK INSTABILITY ON THE WESTERN
EDGE OF OUR CWA BUT OTHERWISE WE SHOULDN'T SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER AS
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE KEEPS THE GREATEST INSTABILITY OUTSIDE OF THE
CWA. WE COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND
AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH A 70-80% CHANCE OF HIGHS ABOVE
85, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY MVFR BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT MORE CLOUDS
COULD BUILD IN AFTER SUNRISE DROPPING CIGS TO IFR BUT VISIBILITY
SHOULD STAY ABOVE 5SM FOR THE MORNING. CIGS START TO LIFT TO
MVFR AND VISIBILITY RETURNS TO P6SM AROUND 15Z AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT THE
NORTH AND WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ENE AROUND SUNSET.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KRULL
LONG TERM...IPC
AVIATION...IPC
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