347
FXUS63 KEAX 011134
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
634 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..UPDATED 12Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY
- COOLER AND LESS HUMID THIS WEEKEND
- TEMPERATURES RISE BY MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF MISSOURI DURING THE
OVERNIGHT WHILE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE HEADS TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. CENTER OF H5 CLOSED-LOW IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED
OVER THE IA-MO-IL TRIPLE POINT EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A 60 KT JET
STREAK STILL POSITIONED OVER MUCH OF MISSOURI AND EXTREME EASTERN
KANSAS. THIS IS HELPING TO PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR DRIZZLE IN NORTHERN
FORECAST ZONES THIS MORNING, WITH OVERCAST SKIES FROM LINGERING WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY DROPPED INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION WITH, TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN SOME SPOTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
THE CYCLONE BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED, ITS EASTWARD PROPAGATION
HAS SLOWED, WHICH HAS BEEN LEAVING MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IN A STRONGER PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS, ALONG WITH CAA AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT, WILL
ALLOW GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THIS
AFTERNOON, AND SHOULD START TO SEE THIS DIMINISH AS THE LOW FINALLY
PUSHES FURTHER EASTWARD. ONCE THE THE LAST LOBE OF MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY PASSES THROUGH, WE SHOULD SEE ANY LIGHT SPRINKLE OR
DRIZZLE ACTIVITY COME TO AN END. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL
BE MARKED BY CONTINUED MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH EXITING SYSTEM BECOMING VERTICALLY STACKED
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WHILE
THIS STALLS THERE, AN AMPLIFIED H5 RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS, WITH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LIKELY SEEING A 594DAM HIGH
SETUP, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS THEN BEING PUSHED NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS REINFORCED BY A SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCE
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
FOR THE NEXT WORK WEEK, THE AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
FORCE MOST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT-WAVE DISTURBANCES IN THE
FAR NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. MOST DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS HAVE H5 HEIGHT RISES PROGGED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS, WITH STRONG H85 WAA OCCURRING. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S, AND ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS REACHING ABOVE 90F STEADILY RISE AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, RIDGE AXIS WILL FLATTEN AS MORE
SHORT-WAVE ACTIVITY EMANATES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH CVA
TRACKING MORE TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS STILL
SPREAD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT, WITH SOME
SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE FORCING MUCH FURTHER NORTH, WHILE OTHERS ARE
STARTING TO HINT IT MAY REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES. PROBABILITIES
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL RANGE FROM 15 TO 30 PERCENT, MAINLY FOR
AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE 70 AND NORTHWARD. NEXT WEEKEND, WE ARE
STARING TO SEE AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
THAT COULD BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME THOUGH, INNER-QUARTILE SPREAD FOR BOTH MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES IS QUITE LARGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
EDGE OF MVFR STRATUS IS STARTING TO ERODE WITH SUNRISE FOR OUR
EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI TAF SITES. REMAINDER OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL BE IN MVFR CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY
MORNING. FOR THE KC METRO TERMINALS AND STJ, EXPECT A FEW MORE
OBSERVATION TO COME IN MVFR THIS MORNING, THEN SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BETWEEN 14Z-15Z. THE OTHER MAIN STORY WILL BE BREEZY NORTH
TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, AROUND 30KTS IN NORTHERN MISSOURI, WITH
25KT GUSTS IN AT THE TAF SITES.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...KRULL
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