823
FXUS63 KEAX 281120
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
520 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BRIEF WARM UP TODAY AHEAD OF MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS RETURNING TO
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
* LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SUNDAY
MORNING.
* MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. WARMEST TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE
CONCENTRATED IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER, SO PRECIPITATION TYPE
LOOKS TO BE RAIN OR SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
A BRIEF WARM UP IS EXPECTED TODAY AS NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE
WESTERLY AND 925 HPA TEMPERATURES WARM 5-7 C THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WITH SNOW OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION STARTING TO HINT AS SOME
SIGNS OR COMPACTION AND CURING, STARTED WITH THE 50TH PERCENTILE FOR
MODEL OUTPUT FOR HIGHS, BUT HEDGED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER IN
THE WEST WHERE WARMING ALOFT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE OVER
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING PUSHES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND LEESIDE TROUGHING OCCURS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. AS THIS
SYSTEM DEEPENS, WEAK FLOW IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME EASTERLY THIS EVENING BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE
VICINITY OF 600 MB IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS CREATING A LIGHT BAND OF SNOW THAT WILL EXTEND FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SOUTHWEST IOWA AND POTENTIALLY INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI. BOTH THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN A BAND FROM GRANT CITY TO MACON, WHILE THE GFS IS A
BIT DRIER. HAVE ADDED MENTIONABLE POPS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI
ALONG THIS BAND, BUT KEPT POPS CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36
AS DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE LOOKS TO BE MORE PRONOUNCED THE FURTHER
SOUTH ONE GETS. WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY
PUSHING SOUTH INTO TEXAS BY SATURDAY EVENING. WITH THE HIGH
REMAINING TO THE WEST, NEAR SURFACE NORTHERLY FLOW REMAINS KEEPING
TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL. WITH THE RIDGE PASSING BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES MAY ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
FALL BACK BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT. IF TEMPERATURES ARE ABLE TO FALL
BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT, LREF ENSEMBLE IS SUGGESTING 30-50% OF
WINDCHILLS ECLIPSING -15 F SATURDAY MORNING- CREATING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY.
SHORT WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NW FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO PLUNGE
SOUTH EAST SATURDAY POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A LIGHT SNOW EVENT ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS
CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI, THOUGH THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE A MORE WIDESPREAD AFFAIR THAN THURSDAY.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE WEST SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO
NORMAL LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NEXT WEEK. WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON A SERIES OF PHASED WAVES THAT MAY BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES IN THE TROPOSPHERE WILL
BE IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER, FAVORING EITHER RAIN OR SNOW AS A
PRECIPITATION TYPE VS A WINTRY MIX.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS. FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY
THIS EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
BUILDS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT
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