014
FXUS63 KEAX 231745
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1145 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ONE MORE COOLER DAY MONDAY
- RAPID WARM UP STARTS TUESDAY
- RAIN FORECAST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST SUN FEB 22 2026
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FEATURES A LONG-
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGE
AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. STRONG H3 AND H5 HEIGHT
GRADIENT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS RESULTING IN A STRONG
JET STREAM THAT THEN FEEDS INTO THE BASE OF THE DEEP TROUGH ALONG
THE EAST COAST. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, THE STRONG FLOW FROM
THE RIDGE UPSTREAM HAS PROVIDED STRONG DAVA DEVELOPING A STRONG
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BUT
RIDGE OF SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND HAS KEPT CONDITIONS IN OUR REGION CLEAR. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SKY CONDITIONS MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY. OVERALL FLOW WILL STILL REMAIN NORTHERLY, WHICH WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY, BUT THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS BLUSTERY WITH
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT DECREASING.
LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, TWO MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVES ARE
PROGGED TO RIDE THROUGH THE RIDGE PATTERN EMANATING FROM A PV
ANOMALY OVER THE PACIFIC. THE STRONG LOWER-LEVEL WAA OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE RIDGE AMPLIFIED, BUT ENOUGH DCVA
SHOULD START EARLY TUESDAY INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND ANOTHER AREA IN
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS SHIFTS THE 850MB THERMAL RIDGE AXIS
EASTWARD, WITH LIFT PROMOTING LEE CYCLOGENESIS. BY THE LATE MORNING
MORNING ON TUESDAY, SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY, RESULTING IN
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WAA ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A DRASTIC BOOST TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY, WITH
LOWER 60S IN EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO (NBM MEMBERS FAVORING AT A 70
PERCENT CHANCE OF HITTING 60F OR HIGHER), WITH UPPER 50S IN CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. ALSO EXPECTING GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY, ALONG STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH.
WEDNESDAY, PV ANOMALY OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND SENDS A A STRONGER SHOT OF VORTICITY THAT WILL BEGIN TO
DE-AMPLIFIY THE RIDGING PATTERN. THIS FORCES THE FRONT RANGE SURFACE
CYCLONE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND IS EXPECTED TO STALL ANY
WARM FRONT PROPAGATION TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE, DCVA DRASTICALLY INCREASES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
WILL FORCE ANOTHER SURFACE CYCLONE EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS OVERALL LOW-LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CUTS-OFF PROMINENT WAA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND EVENTUALLY A TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD TO AROUND THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR. FOR WEDNESDAY THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. IF THE COLD FRONT IS DELAYED
PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL WE COULD SEE LOWER
60S AROUND INTERSTATE 70 AND SOUTHWARD, AND AMONGST NBM MEMBERS
PROBABILITIES FOR EXCEEDING 60F ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS AROUND 40
PERCENT. LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THAT COLD FRONT IS PROGGED STALL
BETWEEN INTERSTATE 70 AND THE OZARKS REGION OF MISSOURI. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH MOISTURE, WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY RESULT IN
LIGHT RAIN ACTIVITY.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY THURSDAY, ANOTHER MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE EJECTS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WILL PROVIDE
REINFORCING HEIGHT FALLS AND DCVA OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH FLOW PROVIDING STRONGER STEERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SURFACE CYCLONE BY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD, WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF
LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY, AND
ENHANCING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY STALLED BOUNDARY. MOST OF
THE WAA IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44, BUT
PREVIOUS 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM WEDNESDAY SHOULD LEAD THE WAY
FOR RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARD IN
PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY, WITH THE GEFS
SPECIFICALLY COMING IN OVER 70 PERCENT. OTHER ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE
STILL HOLDING CLOSER TO 50 PERCENT, AND THIS APPEARS TO BE TIED TO
WHERE THE FINAL STALLED POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT OCCURS. WHILE IN
AGREEMENT OF INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE, WE
ARE STILL SEEING LARGE SPREAD IN HOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE
CYCLONE DEEPENS AND PROPAGATES THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH IS LEADING TO
THE LARGER SPREAD IN QPF OUTCOMES FOR THE EVENT. THE GFS AND GEFS IS
THE MOST ROBUST WITH QPF THROUGH THURSDAY, PAINTING BETWEEN 0.20-
0.25 INCHES, WHILE ECMWF AND NAM ARE CONSIDERABLY LESS. SOME
INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE MORE THAN JUST A FEW
HUNDREDTHS, BUT, HAVE A A LARGE AREAL COVERAGE OF THAT FEW
HUNDREDTHS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR THIS TO REMAIN RAIN,
THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND WINTRY MIXES ARE STILL FORECAST MUCH
FURTHER NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A QUICK PEAK AT CONVECTION
PARAMETERS SHOWS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF INSTABILITY, GIVEN THAT
THE BULK OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH THIS SYSTEM LIKELY REMAINS WELL
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK LIKELY TO BE MARKED BY A STRONG
SURFACE ANTICYCLONE THAT MOVES IN BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM THAT
SHOULD CLEAR CONDITIONS. H5 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS PROPAGATES
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD, ENOUGH TO PROMOTE ADIABATIC COMPRESSION WARMING
OVER THE ROCKIES WITH 850MB AND 700MB FLOW PROVIDING WAA INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY THAT SHOULD HELP TO BOOST TEMPERATURES
BACK UPWARD. INNER-QUARTILE SPREAD FOR TEMPERATURES THOUGH IS QUITE
LARGE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND THIS MAY BE
ATTRIBUTED TO INCREASED CLOUD-COVER POTENTIAL BY LINGERING MOISTURE
FROM THE EXITING SYSTEM. SOME ENSEMBLES THEN HINT AT MORE
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY HEADING INTO SUNDAY NEXT WEEKEND BUT OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS LOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS SOME SCATTERED HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS FLOAT OVER THE REGION.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY
AT 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 08Z
TOMORROW MORNING, LASTING THROUGH 14Z, WITH SURFACE WINDS
REMAINING SOUTHERLY AROUND 10-15 KTS WHILE WINDS AT FL020 WILL
BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT 45-50 KTS. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO 25-30
KTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...CAROTHERS
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