576  
FXUS63 KEAX 190745  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
245 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANQUIL AND  
COOL SUNDAY/MONDAY. CLOUDS WILL HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST MUCH OF THE  
MORNING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE. HIGHS IN THE  
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S BOTH AFTERNOONS.  
 
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE AREA AS ANOTHER STRONG  
UPPER TROUGH EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE  
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE  
WEATHER. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OVER MUCH OF KANSAS, GENERALLY  
ALONG/NORTH OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT PROJECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT  
NORTHWARD FROM NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY REACH AND OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA  
DURING MONDAY EVENING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE  
WARM SECTOR OVER FAR SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA, AND SPREAD  
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE GENERALLY LOSING STORM SEVERITY AS CONVECTION  
OUTPACES INSTABILITY. HEAVY RAINFALL FROM ONE OR TWO ROUNDS OF  
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING  
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.  
 
BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO  
LIMP NORTHWARD, LIKELY FIGHTING SOME REINFORCEMENT FROM WIDESPREAD  
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. STILL, MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE COULD  
REACH THE I-70 CORRIDOR BY NOON TUESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF  
CONVECTION, POTENTIALLY ONGOING AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING AS THE  
DAY PROGRESSES, IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL  
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE MOST PROBABLE WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER  
WITHIN OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR  
WILL BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION, THE  
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY REMAINS IN QUESTION, EVEN WITHIN THE LIFTING  
WARM SECTOR DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD DEBRIS. THAT SAID, THE  
EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY  
MONITORED AS A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA, WITH STRONG LOW-  
LEVEL SHEAR AND DYNAMICS IN PLACE, POCKETS OF STRAIGHT-LINE WIND  
DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO EMBEDDED IN THE LINE WOULD BE  
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT  
WILL END AS THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.  
 
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NW 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA  
FOR THE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL ANTICIPATED  
MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WATCH COVERS AREAS THAT  
ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS  
AND/OR AREAS THAT ARE MORE SENSITIVE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BASED ON  
TODAY'S RAINFALL/ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.  
 
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS  
A PARADE OF UPPER TROUGHS CONTINUE TO CYCLE THROUGH THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EJECT INTO THE PLAINS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2019  
 
THE NEXT ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
ARRIVE DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, EVENTUALLY PUSHING EAST  
BEFORE SUNRISE. PERIODIC MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE DURING  
THIS TIME, ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND GUSTY WINDS. LOW-  
LEVEL STRATUS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE PRECIP  
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY  
THE MID-MORNING HOURS, WHILE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING  
FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.  
 
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING  
FOR MOZ001>007-011>016-020>023-028>031-037-038-043.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BLAIR  
AVIATION...WELSH  
 
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