387
FXUS63 KEAX 222322
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
622 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY (UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S)
- THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL SEE MORE HEAT AND TEMPERATURES
FLIPPING TO ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S)
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MORE SO TUESDAY
NIGHT (20-60%). THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE PERIOD ARE
CURRENTLY THURSDAY EVENING - FRIDAY MORNING (50-80%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL (UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S) WITH LIGHT WINDS MAKING FOR A VERY PLEASANT
EVENING. MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT RAIN CHANCES...
COOL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
MID WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. WE ARE
WATCHING A WEAK/SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING. SEVERAL FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN KANSAS TUESDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DIVE THIS CONVECTION MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF
OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE PRECIPITATION DIEING OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST. THE 12Z AND NOW 18Z HRRR HAVE BEEN THE
FURTHEST EAST WITH THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND WOULD IMPACT OUR NORTHEAST AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE
IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT DECIDED TO INTRODUCE AT LEAST
20-30% RAIN CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. CURRENTLY THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR
AREA BASED ON THE NBM AND PLURALITY OF THE MODELS WOULD BE LATER
TUESDAY NIGHT (30-60%) AND FAVOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
WEDNESDAY...
THE TUESDAY EVENING SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART, BUT WE COULD STILL
SEE COME LINGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. WE WILL START TO WARM UP BUT
ONLY BACK TO AROUND 80 WHICH IS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL AND A MORE PRONOUNCED
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
EXACT TIMING IS STILL FAIRLY QUESTIONABLE, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE PEAKING THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING (50-80%). WILL HOPEFULLY BE BETTER ABLE TO NAIL DOWN
THE TIMING OF RAIN CHANCES AS WE GET CLOSER.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ZONAL FLOW SHOULD TRANSITION INTO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WHICH
SHOULD BRING WARMER (90S) AND GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS BACK
TO THE REGION. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD CLIMB INTO THE 100-110
RANGE BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY IF THIS PATTERN TRANSPIRES. THE MODEL
SPREAD IS CURRENTLY RATHER TIGHT FOR THIS PERIOD INDICATING GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THIS EXPECTED WARMUP.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH
CLOUD COVER DECREASING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE GETS SHUNTED OFF TO THE EAST TOMORROW WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS STREAMING BACK INTO THE TERMINALS. AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WESELY
AVIATION...BRITT
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