321
FXUS63 KEAX 161859
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
159 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY EVENING.
- NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
AREAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NE KANSAS, NW
AND N MISSOURI FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH A
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
- TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WITH THE ADVECTION OF COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS COLD
FRONT, TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. SYNOPTICALLY, A 500MB POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH IS DIGGING OVER OUR REGION, WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT AS THE
JET STREAM PASSES RIGHT OVERHEAD. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR A LARGE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
GREAT PLAINS, AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT EXITED TO OUR EAST
YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT, EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH UP TO
30MPH, BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE THE
DAYTIME MIXING. THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE
SURFACE HIGH TO OUR WEST, ALONG WITH DRY AIR TO OUR NORTH WILL BOTH
APPROACH OUR AREA. THIS WILL HELP PUSH OFF ANY REMAINING CLOUD
COVER, AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 30S. PORTIONS OF
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WILL LIKELY DIP DOWN INTO THE LOW 30S,
PROMPTING THE ISSUANCE OF A FREEZE WARNING TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL GET DOWN INTO THE MID-30S, WITH MANY OF
THOSE AREAS HAVING A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT. PRECAUTION WILL
INCLUDE PROTECTING ANY SENSITIVE PLANTS, CROPS, AND VEGETATION.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET AS OUR TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST, ALONG WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHING. WE WILL ALSO SEE
LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER THIS WEEKEND, AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS FROM
OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK UP INTO THE 60S,
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY AS PRESSURE HEIGHTS INCREASE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION MOVES INTO OUR REGION. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, WITH THE RIDGE STAYING IN PLACE, AND ALLOWING
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ADVECT WARM AIR. TEMPERATURES THEN WILL RETURN
INTO THE 70S AND 80S BY THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WHILE THIS
HAPPENS, A TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE WEST COAST, AND WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT INTERACTS WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET. AS THIS
DISTURBANCE GETS ITS ACT TOGETHER, IT WILL MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY
LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. EXACT TIMING AND EFFECTS STILL
REMAIN TO BE SEEN, AS CERTAINTY WILL INCREASE AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THE TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
CURRENTLY AT OUR TAF SITES, WE ARE SEEING OVERCAST SKIES WITH 2500-
3500 FT AGL CEILINGS, PROMOTING THE AREA TO BE A CRITICAL THRESHOLD
BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR. THERE IS A NORTH WIND OF AROUND 15-20KTS, WITH
GUSTS TO 30KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS WE LOSE
THE DAYTIME MIXING. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO DECREASE AS DRY AIR FROM
THE NORTH ADVECTS INTO OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS
WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 0300Z, AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY TOMORROW.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ001>007-
011>016-020.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ008-017-
021>025-028>033-037>039-043-044.
KS...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-102.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ057-060-
103>105.
DISCUSSION...BJORK
AVIATION...BJORK
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