572
FXUS63 KEAX 310916
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
416 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
REGION LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY (50 TO
80%) LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED (90 TO 100%)
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY (60 TO 90%)
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
- TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA AND EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS,
WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER MISSOURI AND KANSAS. AT THE LOWER
LEVELS, AN EAST/WEST ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND INTO NEBRASKA, WITH A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
A 45+ KNOT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET HAS DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NW MISSOURI, WHICH HAS
INITIATED A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION, AND IS HELPING KEEP
SSW SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER TROUGH NEAR THE US/CANADA
BORDER CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES, HELPING PUSH THE CURRENTLY STALLED
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH INTO AND THROUGH THE CWA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. MOST RECENT HI RES GUIDANCE BRINGS THE FRONT INTO
FAR NW MISSOURI BY AROUND 10 AM TODAY, THROUGH THE KC METRO BY
AROUND 2-4 PM, BEFORE STALLING OUT SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF
A ST. LOUIS TO FORT SCOTT LINE BY LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
SPEED OF THE FRONT, BUT MOST LOCATIONS IN THE CWA SHOULD HEAT UP
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S PRIOR TO FROPA.
WITH CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN PLACE AND A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT, IT IS UNLIKELY THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD INITIATE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HOWEVER, BY LATER
TONIGHT AS BETTER FORCING ARRIVES, WOULD EXPECT ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH UP TO 1500 J/KG OF MU CAPE
AND 40+ KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ANOTHER MID/UPPER TROUGH IS PROJECTED
TO COME ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS, EJECTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
THURSDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE, THE LOW SHOULD
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ENE ACROSS KANSAS, WITH A 996 MB LOW
PROJECTED TO BE CENTERED SOMEWHERE OVER FAR NE KANSAS BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE EAST
THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN
KANSAS. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH
AND SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH THE STALLED EAST/WEST ORIENTED
BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION AND CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION INCREASING PWATS INTO THE 1.5"+ RANGE WILL LIKELY
GENERATE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA
FROM LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH 90 TO
100% POPS CWA WIDE FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY THROUGH 1 PM THURSDAY.
WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VEERING
WINDS WITHIN THE WARM FRONTAL ZONE, SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE SRH
VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 200 TO 300 M2/S2 AND WITH SURFACE BASED
LCLS NEAR OR BELOW 1 KM, THIS MAY PROMOTE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL. THIS HAS PROMPTED SPC
UPGRADING PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, INCLUDING THE KC METRO, INTO A
SLIGHT RISK, WITH A 5% CIG1 TORNADO THREAT AND 15% CIG1 HAIL
THREAT. HOWEVER, AND SPC DOES INDEED NOTE THIS AS WELL, WITH
WEAK CAPPING AND STRONG FORCING, THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERING AND
UPSCALE GROWTH COULD LIMIT THIS THREAT. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT, RELATIVELY HIGH PWATS ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR
TRAINING STORMS WILL PRESENT A LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT,
AND WPC HAS UPGRADED MUCH OF THE CWA TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACCORDINGLY. THE ECWMF EFI AND SOT SUGGESTS
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN UNUSUAL RAINFALL EVENT WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A KANSAS
CITY TO UNIONVILLE MO LINE. SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
AXIS EXITS THE REGION TO THE EAST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
FOLLOWING THIS, MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A DEEP, CLOSED
MID/UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH ENTERING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, EJECTING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST INTO
THE MID TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE, A SURFACE LOW SHOULD SLIDE FROM WESTERN KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL IOWA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW
MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD BRING HIGH CHANCES (60 TO 90%)
FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, EXITING THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD BE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE SURFACE LOW
INVOF SE NEBRASKA BY 4 PM FRIDAY. WITH 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF WSW
FLOW AT 500 MB OVERSPREADING THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG WITH MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS. AS SUCH, SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED ALMOST ALL OF THE CWA WITHIN A 15% SEVERE RISK AREA
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING/NIGHT. LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DRY WEATHER SHOULD FINALLY
RETURN BY SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
WITH THE THREAT FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO SATURDAY, CURRENT FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM 2" TO 4", WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. MOST RECENT NBM GUIDANCE GIVES MCI A 95%, 59%, AND
21% PROBABILITY FOR RAINFALL TO EXCEED 1", 2", AND 3"
RESPECTIVELY. FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SOME OF THE FASTER
RESPONDING CREEKS, STREAMS, AND RIVERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS MAY PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, BUT FAR
FROM A GUARANTEE WITH STORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AT THIS POINT, THE HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
FOUR TAF SITES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT, BUT
CONFIDENCE APPEARS HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT PREVAILING AT
KMCI/KMKC/KIXD, WHILE PROB30 AT KSTJ. PRIOR TO THIS, S/SSW WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY DURING THE INITIAL OVERNIGHT HOURS AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE WINDS TURN
NORTHERLY, BREEZY CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED
TEENS KTS AND GUSTS INTO THE LOW/MID 20S KTS. AGAIN, NOT
DISSIMILAR TO ONGOING, BUT SOUTHERLY, WINDS. OVERALL, WINDS DO
GRADUALLY EASE TUESDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BMW
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...CURTIS
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