089
FXUS63 KEAX 290530
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1130 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
..06Z AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW WILL BRING A DUSTING UP TO A HALF INCH OF
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
- WINDY CONDITIONS (35-45 MPH WIND GUSTS) ARE CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES RANGING FROM NEAR ZERO TO
FIFTEEN BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND GOING INTO TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MILD,
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
A COLD FRONT MOVED TROUGH OUR AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A DYNAMIC
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS IT HAS
DEEPENED, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE LOW GENERATING STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WHICH HAVE PUSHED INTO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.
WINDS ARE GUSTING 35 TO 50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, A
BAND OF SNOW HAS SET UP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL PV ANOMALY WHICH HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS BAND OF SNOW WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR AREA, GENERALLY ONLY DROPPING A DUSTING TO A HALF-INCH OF
SNOW. BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THIS BAND WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY
ONLY ENHANCED BY STRONG BACKGROUND WINDS. IN THE HEAVIEST OF THE
BAND, EXPECT VISIBILITY TO DROP DOWN TO AROUND A MILE OR LESS.
SNOW SHOULD EXIT TO THE EAST BY 00Z, WITH CLEARING SKIES THIS
EVENING. WINDS, HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO GUST 35 TO 45 MPH
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL FINALLY START TO RELAX.
MONDAY WILL BE OFF TO A VERY COOL START WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
DROPPING BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA, GETTING AS COLD AS
-10 TO -15 TOWARD THE IOWA STATE LINE. A FEW WEATHER STATIONS
MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH -15 AROUND SUNRISE, BUT LIKELY WON'T STAY COLD
LONG ENOUGH OR BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO NEED A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY. AS WINDS RELAX THROUGH THE DAY TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
INTO THE 20S BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AN ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING A WIND SHIFT EARLY TUESDAY BACK TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DROPS TO OUR
SOUTH. THIS COMBINED WITH BUILDING 500-MB HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO
REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
GOING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THIS WEEK, THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS ONLY SERVES TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD
HELPING TO KEEP WEATHER GENERALLY QUIET. THURSDAY WE SEE A WEAK
CLIPPER SHORTWAVE RIDE DOWN ALONG THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BRINGING A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DOWN OUT OF IOWA INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THIS WILL COOL AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 30S
ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70, WHILE AREAS SOUTH STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND WARM AGAIN INTO THE LOW-TO-MID
40S.
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WE SEE A SHORTWAVE DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTH TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA. MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM TRACKING
SOUTH ACROSS ARKANSAS, WITH SOME VARIABILITY IN THE EXACT TRACK.
AS OF NOW THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT IF THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS ANY FARTHER NORTH WE COULD
SEE POPS BE INTRODUCED TO OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER SUBTLE HEIGHT RISE WILL HELP TO PUSH TEMPERATURES
BACK UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THINKING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS TAF PERIOD.
NW WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC LOW
TO MID 30S KTS GUSTS, GRADUALLY EASING TOWARD AND AFTER 12Z.
STRATUS WRAPPING AROUND THE LARGER SYSTEM TOO WILL FLIRT WITH
THE SITES, BUT GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN TRYING TO KEEP
MVFR DECKS JUST TO THE N/NE AS THE OVERALL SYSTEM TRANSLATES
NE. AS A RESULT, HAVE KEPT TAFS VFR, BUT WITH HINTS AT POTENTIAL
MVFR WITH SCT030 OR SO MENTIONS OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THAT WRAP AROUND/APPROACHING STRATUS FOR ANY NECESSARY
CHANGES.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-
020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CURTIS
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