818  
FXUS63 KEAX 080525  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
1225 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
..UPDATED 06Z AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW OF WHICH COULD  
BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
- POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE  
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG, POTENTIALLY DAMAGING  
WINDS, THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM.  
 
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEK. THOUGH  
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LOCATION IS VERY HIGH.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2025  
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CU FIELD CONVERGING, LIKELY ON A  
WEAK STALLED FRONT OR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, FROM SEDALIA AND  
CLINTON, MO, WESTWARD TO THE KC AREA. ANOTHER AREA, BETWEEN  
HIGHWAY 65 AND HIGHWAY 63, NORTH OF THE MO RIVER, HAS DEVELOPED  
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. LASTLY, THERE SEEMS TO BE ANOTHER WEAK  
AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN THE CU FIELD FROM EXTREME NE KS THROUGH  
NORTH CENTRAL MO. IT'S LIKELY WE'LL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING GIVEN  
THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BOUNDARIES IN THE AREA. WEAK SHEAR  
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANYTHING ORGANIZED BUT THE MORE  
ROBUST UPDRAFTS MAY LEAD TO SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS  
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE AVAILABLE.  
 
FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL HELP TRIGGER  
CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, IN SOUTH DAKOTA TO NEBRASKA.  
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SO  
CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WILL  
LIKELY GROW INTO A STRONG TO SEVERE MCS. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY  
TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
IT'S UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SOUTHEAST THIS COMPLEX WILL SURVIVE. AT A  
MINIMUM, IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SYSTEM MAY START DYING AS IT MOVES INTO  
THE AREA. HOWEVER, THESE SYSTEMS FREQUENTLY SURVIVE MUCH FURTHER  
SOUTHEAST AND THERE IS GUIDANCE THAT SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL. GIVEN  
THIS POTENTIAL, LIKELY POPS SEEM TO BE THE BEST ROUTE FOR THE  
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER CHANCE POPS  
TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF. IF THIS SYSTEM MAINTAINS  
ITS INTENSITY INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM NEBRASKA, DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS.  
 
THIS SYSTEM ADDS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST FOR  
TUESDAY, WHICH, WITH YESTERDAY'S FORECAST, LOOKED LIKE IT HAD BETTER  
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IF THE  
FORECAST MCS MOVES THROUGH, THAT WILL LIKELY LIMIT FUTURE CONVECTION  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS WILL NEED TO RECOVER. I'VE SEEN  
THIS RECOVERY OCCUR VERY QUICKLY BEFORE BUT WHAT SEEMS MORE  
LIKELY IS THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOUTH AND EAST OF  
THE AREA. BUT AGAIN, THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THE MCS  
EVOLVES TOMORROW.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK RELATIVELY QUIET REGARDING PRECIPITATION  
POTENTIAL. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PROBABILITIES OF QPF OVER  
0.01" BOTH DAYS. SO WHILE A SHOWER OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT EACH  
AFTERNOON, IT LOOKS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY. THE NEXT  
DECENT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE FRIDAY  
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW SEVERAL UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES  
MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER  
MIDWEST. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD  
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WITH PRECIPITATION BECOMING MORE  
LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. ENSEMBLE  
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION  
OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. BUT SIMILAR TO THE TONIGHT-  
TUESDAY TIME FRAME, HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES WILL HAVE A VERY  
LARGE INFLUENCE ON THE FOLLOWING DAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
WATCHING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF  
NEBRASKA. ALTHOUGH DECAYING, HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY IS  
EXPECTED. HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH STJ BETWEEN 0630Z  
AND 0700Z. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LIGHTNING TRENDS TO  
DETERMINE IF THUNDER REACHES STJ. LESS CONFIDENCE IN WESTWARD  
EXTENT OF THE COMPLEX, THEREFORE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE  
KC METRO TERMINALS. TIMING OUT THE LINE, IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER,  
WILL ARRIVE AT MCI BETWEEN 07Z AND 08Z, AND THEN IXD ABOUT AN  
HOUR LATER. FOR NOW, WILL PLACE TSRA IN A PROB30 GROUP FOR THE  
KC METRO TERMINALS. WEAKER SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP BEHIND  
THAT BETWEEN 11-13Z. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS  
CENTRAL MISSOURI THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. REDEVELOPMENT OF  
STORMS OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH HOW CURRENT ACTIVITY MODIFIES  
THE ENVIRONMENT. IF THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS TOO STABLE, BETTER  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY PUSH MORE INTO SOUTHERN AND  
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECTING MOSTLY  
VFR CONDITIONS, THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. IF A  
DOWNPOUR OCCURS AT THE TERMINALS, MAY SEE A FEW MINUTES OF IFR  
VISIBILITY. WIND GUSTS WITH DECAYING SHOWERS MAY REACH BETWEEN  
25-35KTS.  
 
 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...CDB  
AVIATION...KRULL  
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