943  
FXUS63 KEAX 062009  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
309 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF VERY  
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.  
 
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEK WITH THE MOST  
LIKELY PERIOD TUESDAY.  
 
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON. AS OF 19Z, THIS FRONT IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM NEAR  
MOBERLY TO BETWEEN HARRISONVILLE AND OLATHE. THE FRONT WILL SERVE AS  
THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR STORMS, THOUGH ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL DEVELOP  
OR HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AHEAD OF IT WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION  
HAS ERODED IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY OF THE DAY. SHEAR IS VERY WEAK,  
SO THE THREAT OF ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NIL. HOWEVER, THERE  
IS AMPLE MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.7" TO 1.9".  
WITH SOME DRY AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOWEST 5000 FT  
OF THE ATMOSPHERE, DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES ARE IN EXCESS 1000 J/KG,  
WHICH MAY SUPPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS AT THE SURFACE. LOCALLY VERY  
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE  
ATMOSPHERE. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST  
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND THAT, COMBINED WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME  
HEATING, SHOULD LEAD TO STORMS ENDING AND/OR MOVING SOUTH OF OUR  
FORECAST AREA.  
 
ONE OTHER ITEM TO NOTE IN THE NEAR-TERM, IS THE MCS CURRENTLY IN  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS SYSTEM HAS REINVIGORATED IN THE WARMTH OF THE  
AFTERNOON. MEAN WIND HAS THIS SYSTEM PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO  
NORTHWESTERN MO THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT A  
WEAK INTERNAL PV ANOMALY HAS BEEN PRODUCED BY THE SYSTEM, WHICH MAY  
HELP IT PROPAGATE FURTHER EAST THAN FORECAST. STILL, IT SEEMS  
UNLIKELY TO SURVIVE GIVEN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO  
IT, WEAKER INSTABILITY, AND INCREASING INHIBITION AS IT DOES MOVE  
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW, WILL WORK UNDER THE PREMISE THAT  
THIS MCS WILL WEAKEN BEFORE IT MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN MO.  
 
THE NEXT DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TUESDAY.  
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN US. THIS WILL  
FORCE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME OVER THE MIDDLE OF COUNTRY.  
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY.  
STRONG MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE AREA AND MUCAPE VALUES  
IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG RANGE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST  
CONVECTION. WITH BETTER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, THOUGH STILL SOMEWHAT  
WEAK, THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS BETTER,  
THOUGH STILL NOT GREAT. AND WITH CONTINUED HIGH PRECIPITABLE  
WATER VALUES OF 1.7" TO 1.9", THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL  
EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE MULTICELLS WITH  
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE BEING  
BEFORE PEAK HEATING MAY LIMIT THE INTENSITY AND/OR COVERAGE OF  
STORMS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN MO.  
 
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW END POPS (15-30%) ON NEARLY A DAILY  
BASIS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EMBEDDED  
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THESE HAVE LIMITED OR NO  
PREDICTABILITY GIVEN THEY'RE LARGELY A RESULT OF UPSTREAM  
CONVECTION. THE NEXT MORE NOTABLE CHANCE FOR STORMS COMES FRIDAY  
WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE  
COUNTRY. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS MEAN MUCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG. MEAN DEEP-  
LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO LOOK WEAK WITH VALUES NEAR 20KTS ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA. GIVEN THE PARAMETERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FRONT TO  
MOVE THROUGH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS, POPS IN THE 25-45% RANGE LOOK  
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME FOR FRIDAY.  
 
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN  
THE UPPER 80S. FORECAST HIGHS ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF OUR NORMAL  
HIGH FOR THE NEXT WEEK, SO WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE SEASONAL  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FORECAST.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025  
 
LOW VFR DIURNAL CU THIS AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD BASES OF 3000-3500  
FT AGL. THESE CLOUDS DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNSET WITH JUST SOME  
HIGH CLOUDS LEFTOVER. AS OF 17Z, CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING FROM  
EAST CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL MO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL VERY LIKELY  
STAY SOUTH OF OUR TERMINALS. KIXD WILL BE THE CLOSEST TO THIS  
ACTIVITY BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL STAY SOUTH OF  
THIS TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON  
AND THEN BECOME NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO  
TOMORROW, REMAINING LIGHT.  
 
 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...CDB  
AVIATION...CDB  
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