284
FXUS63 KEAX 210441
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1041 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH POSSIBLE. WIND ADVISORY ISSUED
FOR NW MO AND EXTREME NE KS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG
WINDS OF 40-45 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES 25 TO 30%.
- GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH WIND ADVISORY
IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM. EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH WITH SOME LOCATIONS EXPERIENCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH. INCLUDED ATCHISON COUNTY IN KS AND CLINTON COUNTY
IN MISSOURI FOR THE WIND ADVISORY AS SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS
SHIFTED A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME POWER OUTAGE
REPORTS FROM GRUNDY COUNTY AND THE PEAK WIND GUST THUS FAR WAS
48 MPH AT ST JOSEPH AND 46 MPH AT CAMERON BOTH IN MO.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
AS WE MOVE INTO TOMORROW MORNING AND FRIDAY MORNING FEELING A
BIT MORE BRISK THAN LATELY. HOWEVER THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL
FOR KMCI IS 32F. EXPECT THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S THURSDAY MORNING WITH KANSAS CITY METRO AREA
BEING THE WARMER HEAT ISLAND WITH THE BULLS-EYE OF WARMTH.
ALTHOUGH THIS BROUGHT SOME INTERESTING LOOK AT CLIMATE FOR
KANSAS CITY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT IN WHICH THE LAST TIME
TEMPERATURES REACHED 30F DEGREES WAS OCTOBER 16TH. THIS WAS THE
LAST TIME THERE WAS THE AREA-WIDE FREEZE ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER, SINCE THEN TEMPERATURES
HAVE BEEN MUCH WARMER THAN THE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH OCTOBER. THE LOWEST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN NOVEMBER AT KMCI HAVE BEEN 36F DEGREES ON
NOVEMBER 1ST AND AGAIN ON NOVEMBER 7TH, AGAIN WITH THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL AT KMCI OF 32F DEGREES. SO WHILE IT MAY
SEEM LIKE A FREEZE ONCE AGAIN IS COMING, IT HAS BEEN AWHILE
SINCE THE FIRST WIDE AREA FREEZE SINCE MID OCTOBER. EXPECT
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY MORNING AS KMCI FORECASTED
MINIMUM IS EXPECTED TO BE 29F. THIS IS 70% PROBABILITY THAT THE
TEMPERATURE WILL BE BELOW 30F AND 85% PROBABILITY THAT THE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE WILL BE BELOW FREEZING.
THE TEMPERATURE TREND OVER THE WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER
AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AIDING IN THE WARMUP. FOR
SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO LOOK WELL ABOVE NORMAL. IF
LOOKING AT KMCI THE FORECASTED TEMPERATURE IS NEARLY 10+F ABOVE
NORMAL OF 52F. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA COULD BE
15+F ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK
CLOSER TO NORMALS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKING AHEAD OF THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY. SOME OF THE LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS AREA TRYING
TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF MO AS WELL BUT AT THIS TIME THE
PROBABILITIES AREA STILL LOW CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1027 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
WIND GUSTS ARE INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS MIXING
INCREASES BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON
THURSDAY, DECREASING TOWARDS SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AS STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING. EXPECT NORTHWESTERN MO, WITH
GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AS OF 1 PM SHOW
MINIMUM VALUES OF 26 TO 30% ACROSS A COUPLE OF THE SITES
ALREADY. THE COMBINATION HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO THE ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT RH VALUES TO DIP
BELOW THE 25% BUT STILL BE AWARE OF THE BORDERLINE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS IN FAR NORTHWESTERN MO. WINDS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 6
PM THIS EVENING. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN DRIER CONDITIONS TOMORROW,
THE NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP OF 20 TO 30 MPH IS EXPECTED.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MK
AVIATION...BT
FIRE WEATHER...CDB
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