879
FXUS63 KEAX 120433
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1033 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S,
POSSIBLY PUSHING 80.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY (>60%) FOR
SATURDAY.
- LOW CHANCES (<25% SUNDAY, <50% FOR MONDAY) FOR PRECIPITATION EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
A WEAK FRONT/ SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY,
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WEST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST. THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES BUT DEWPOINTS ARE ROUGHLY 5+
DEGREES WARMER BEHIND THE FRONT/ TROUGH. IN THE UPPER-LEVELS,
LONGWAVE RIDGING IS DOMINATING THE WESTERN US, WHILE TROUGHING IS
PREVAILING OVER THE EASTERN US. IN THE LOCAL AREA, WE SEEM TO BE
NEAR THE INFLECTION WHERE OUR INFLUENCE WILL BECOME THE UPPER
RIDGING TO THE WEST. THIS BECOMES MORE CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY AND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD. BY
FRIDAY, THE RIDGE AXIS IS CENTERED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR SATURDAY, THE RECORD HIGH FOR
KC (MCI) IS 79, SET IN 1950. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS 75, WHICH IS
JUST ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS A 10-15%
CHANCE FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY TO MEET OR EXCEED 79. SO THE
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES IS LOW, BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY HERE IS THE TIMING OF A
FRONT INTO THE AREA. IF THAT FRONT IS SLOWER, TEMPERATURES
WOULD WARMER FURTHER NORTH AND MCI WOULD HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
FOR BREAKING THE RECORD HIGH.
GIVEN CURED FUELS AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ON
SATURDAY, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY. THE HOT DRY WINDY (HDW) INDEX SHOWS MOST
OF THE AREA WITH >80% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THE 75TH PERCENTILE
FOR THIS INDEX, AND A >20% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE. THE HIGHER THE PERCENTILE, THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SO WE'LL NEED TO WATCH SATURDAY FOR
THIS. AGAIN, IF THE FRONT IS SLOWER, WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY, LOWERING HUMIDITY VALUES FURTHER. AS IT IS NOW, HIGHER
HUMIDITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION COMES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF A CLOSED
UPPER LOW THAT MOVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THESE CAN BE
NOTORIOUSLY FICKLE TRYING TO PREDICT THEIR EASTERN MOVEMENT. SO
RIGHT NOW, THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (<25%) FOR SUNDAY WITH
ESSENTIALLY A COIN FLIP (50%) POPS FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CST TUE NOV 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
BECOMING NORTHWEST AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION THIS MORNING. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING,
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A FEW MORE HIGHER
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TOWARDS 00Z
THURSDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...BT
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