919
FXUS63 KEAX 140629
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
129 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY CLIMB OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD,
WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NOW FORECAST ON
THURSDAY.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S
FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STILL IN THE
70S ACROSS THE AREA. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SPANS ACROSS OUR REGION
WITH WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING BROAD, RIDGING SPANNING
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS, CENTERED OVER MISSOURI, KANSAS, IOWA, AND
NEBRASKA. TO OUR SOUTHEAST, A TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY IS LEADING TO SPORADIC DIURNAL SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY OVER
MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
TUESDAY, EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES,
AND SEASONABLY HOT WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN WE SAW TODAY. AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK,
WE WATCH THE RIDGE MORPH, INTERACTING WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AS IT SLIDES WESTWARD, SOUTH OF THE PROMINENT RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL US. THIS WILL MORPH OUR PATTERN INTO MORE OF A REX BLOCK-
TYPE PATTERN, PUSHING THE BROAD HIGH NORTHWARD AND ADVECTING
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF MISSOURI.
AS THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WE'LL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER INITIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES CREEPING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THOUGH WE WON'T EXPECT ANY
WIDESPREAD RAIN, WE WILL SEE DEW POINTS INCREASE, ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO HEAT
INDICES IN THE MID-TO- UPPER 90S SOUTH OF I-70.
THURSDAY, THE MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHWARD BRINGING SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES (40-60%) BACK TO OUR AREA THROUGH FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WHILE WE'LL HAVE AMPLE CAPE TO ALLOW FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT,
VERY WEAK SHEAR WILL KEEP ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP DISORGANIZED AND
SHORT-LIVED. PRIMARY RISK WITH THESE TYPES OF STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY COLLAPSE, WITH MOST STAYING SUB-SEVERE. AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING DURING THE EVENING, STORM CHANCES DROP OFF WITH
NO RAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WE'LL SEE THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILD BACK
UP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BRINGING WITH IT THE RETURN OF THE LOW-LEVEL
JET OVER CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL START TO FEED MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BACK INTO MISSOURI AS
WELL AS CONTINUE THE WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO
THE LOW-TO-MID 90S ON FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MID 90S TO
NEAR 100. SATURDAY WE'LL SEE HEAT INDICES WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S (NEARING 105 IN SOME SPOTS). WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN SLIM-
TO-NONE ON FRIDAY, SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS BACK THE POTENTIAL FOR
NOCTURNAL STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS WELL AS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, DEPENDING ON THE POSITIONING OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET. RIGHT NOW ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS PESSIMISTIC ON THIS
POTENTIAL, SO POPS REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW MENTIONABLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, BUT WATCH THIS TIME PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL CHANGES AS WE
GET IN BETTER RANGE FOR THESE MORE MESOSCALE PROCESSES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS BREED A CHANCE FOR SOME
BR/FG AROUND SUNRISE WITH CHANCES INCREASING IF RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXCEEDS EXPECTATIONS. MVFR VIS IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOW END CHANCES OF IFR CONDITIONS, MORE LIKELY AT KSTJ. BR/FG
DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE WITH WINDS ACCELERATING OUT OF THE
EAST- SOUTHEAST.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY/SNYDER
AVIATION...PESEL
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