748
FXUS63 KEAX 200907
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
407 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS HEAT IS EXPECTED STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY.
- HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100F-106F ANTICIPATED.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY RANGE FROM 75F-80F,
PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
MESOSCALE
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
A SMALL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) IS MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN MO WHICH BROUGHT GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE MO/IA BORDER.
THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MO DISSIPATING AS THEY APPROACH
CENTRAL MO. RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE FORECASTED HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2025
RIDGING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN
ADVECTING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO CLIMB REACHING INTO THE MID 90S FOR MOST TO THE UPPER
90S ACROSS FAR NW MO. HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 105F
YIELDING OUR FIRST HEAT ADVISORY OF THE YEAR. MORE IMPORTANTLY,
OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 70S
PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS VERY
HIGH FOR LOWS >75F WITH 30% TO 40% CHANCES FOR LOWS ABOVE 80F WITHIN
THE KC METRO. PLEASE CHECK IN ON FAMILY AND NEIGHBORS WHO MAY BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT SUCH AS THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO AIR
CONDITIONING.
THE HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICIES AROUND
100-105F AND 95-103 RESPECTIVELY. THE AXIS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW SHIFTS
EVER SO SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY THANKS FOR A LEEWARD LOW
ACROSS WESTERN NE. THIS PIVOTS THE AXIS OF HOT AIR ADVECTION TO
ORIENT MORE ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTHERN NE. WHILE A KNOCK DOWN
OF HEAT INDEX VALUES BY 5-10 DEGREES MAY NOT SOUND LIKE MUCH,
IT IS JUST ENOUGH OF A STEP IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION TO PROVIDE
SOME RELIEF. THAT SAID, IF THIS LOW DOES NOT MANIFEST ITSELF
AND/OR THE FORECAST TRACK CHANGES COURSE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HAZARDOUS HEAT MAY EXTEND INTO SUNDAY.
HOT WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER, THE
PICTURE CHANGES MONDAY AS MAGNITUDE OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS
QUELLED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHICH ARRIVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MIDDAY. THIS KEEPS HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW 100F, AND
INTRODUCES THE OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
BROAD DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE LIGHTS UP PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS
THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY STARTS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NE INTO SOUTHERN IA MAKING ITS WAY INTO EASTERN KS AND MO
OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE BECOMES VERY MURKY BEYOND MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT A STOUT HIGH SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WITH A COMPETING COOLER AIR MASS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED FRONT LOOKS TO QUICKLY WASH OUT AS IT MOVES INTO WESTERN
SIDE OF THE HIGH. MODEL MEMBERS ARE CHALLENGED BY THE MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVES WHICH ARE ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE LEEWARD FLOW TO THE WEST
AS WELL AS THE CLOCKWISE FLOW OF THE HIGH. THESE RIDGE RUNNERS EACH
BRING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT TUESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. ONCE AGAIN, MODELS AGREE THAT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY WILL BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST; HOWEVER,
CIRCULATING SHORTWAVES FROM THE GULF MIGHT TAP INTO THAT MOISTURE
FLOW INITIATING CONVECTION. THIS BRINGS SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MO (THOUGH LESS LIKELY). OVERALL THIS
RESULTS IN 20-30 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT THU JUN 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS LARGELY EXPECTED WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS.
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI. WHILE THESE STORMS ARE HIGH BASED (8-10K FEET), THEY
ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN AFTER 15Z FRIDAY, CREATING
GUSTY CONDITIONS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY
FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-
053-054.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY
FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
MESOSCALE...PESEL
DISCUSSION...PESEL
AVIATION...BT
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