498
FXUS63 KEAX 071732
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1132 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
* BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA MOVES IN THURSDAY
- 80%-100% CHANCES FOR RAIN
- RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1" OR GREATER: 30%-70% CHANCE
- BEST CHANCES TRENDING TOWARD NW HALF OF MISSOURI
* ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY,
INCLUDING SNOW AND WINTRY MIXES POSSIBLE
- 30-60% CHANCES
- BEST ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES NW MISSOURI
* TEMPERATURES COOLING TOWARD SEASONAL NORMAL NORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
WITH BROAD SURFACE RIDGING POKING INTO THE REGION, LIGHT WINDS AND
QUIET AND CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA. THE ONLY
"WEATHER" OF NOTE OVERNIGHT WAS ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG ATTEMPTING TO
NOSE INTO THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE CWA, BUT PREDOMINANTLY REMAINED
OFF INTO THE LARGE SECTIONS OF E IOWA, NW ILLINOIS AND FAR FAR NE
MISSOURI (PARTS OF DVN/LSX CWAS). OTHERWISE, SAID CLEAR AND QUIET
CONDITIONS HAVE ALLOWED FOR EFFICIENT COOLING AND TEMPERATURES
FALLING TOWARD AND EVEN BELOW ORIGINALLY FORECAST LOWS BY VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THAT IS WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE HOURS OF COOLING
POTENTIAL LEFT. SO, EXPECT A CHILLY START TO THE WORK DAY.
OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY ANOTHER ROUND OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND RETURNING
SOUTHERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE POISED TO BE THE WARMEST, FROM THE
MID-UPPER 50S IN NE MISSOURI TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S BACK TOWARD
THE MO/KS BORDER AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. FOR REFERENCE,
THOSE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS, BUT JUST A LITTLE SHY OF DAILY RECORDS.
QUIET WEATHER AND LARGE CHANGES TO SENSIBLE WEATHER ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY. THE WELL DISCUSSED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SEEM TO HAVE FOUND SOME BETTER
STABILITY/CONSISTENCY WITHIN SYNOPTIC AND NOW HI-RES (AT LEAST SOME)
GUIDANCE. THE GENERAL PROGRESSION IS WELL CORROBORATED AMONG THE
MAJOR MODEL SUITES, SHOWING THE LEADING SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE OUT OF
NEW MEXICO AND INDUCING ROBUST LEE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTHERN
COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND OK/TX PANHANDLE REGIONS. THE RECENT NW
TREND IN THE SURFACE LOW TRACK APPEARS TO HAVE CONTINUED IN THE 00Z
RUNS, BUT MUCH MORE SUBTLY. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE
GFS/EURO/NAM/CANADIAN ALL TRACK THE SURFACE LOW OVER NE KANSAS AND
NW MISSOURI. WHILE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL SEE PRECIPITATION, WHAT THIS
EFFECTIVELY DOES IS PUSH THE ARES MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MOST
RAIN/QPF TOWARD THE NW THIRD OF MISSOURI AND NE CORNER OF KANSAS.
ROBUST NORTHWARD TRANSPORT LOOK TO PUSH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5" IN
THE WARM SECTOR (VERY IMPRESSIVE!) AND >1" IN THE COOLER WRAP AROUND
REGION (ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE). ASIDE FROM THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW THEMSELVES, THERE WILL ALSO BE A >100-
120KT UPPER LEVEL JET MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. ALL TO SAY, THERE
WILL BE BROAD STRONG LIFT. THERMAL PROFILES ARE NOT TERRIBLY SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION (AT LEAST THUNDERSTORMS), BUT GIVEN ALL OF THE
PREVIOUS MENTIONED, THERE SHOULD BE SOME QUITE EFFICIENT RAINFALL
FOR JANUARY. NBM PROBABILITIES PAINT >40-60% PROBABILITIES FOR 1" OF
RAINFALL THURSDAY FOR A SIZABLE CHUNK OF THE AREA. LOOKING MORE
SPECIFICALLY AT THE GFS AND EURO ENSEMBLE SUITES, THERE IS SOME
SUBTLE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HEAVIER RAIN PLACEMENT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES ARE DISPLACED A COUNTY OR TWO TO THE NW OF THE EURO
ENSEMBLE. A SMATTERING OF INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO
PAINT THE POSSIBILITY OF >2" IN SOME LOCATIONS, AND CERTAINLY
REMAINS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE MOISTURE INFLUX, ROBUST LIFT, WEAK
CONVECTION POTENTIAL, ETC. FORTUNATELY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
SEVERELY LIMIT ANYTHING OTHER THAN A HYPER-LOCAL (READ: PRONE AREAS)
FLOODING RISK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A DRY SLOT ACCOMPANYING THIS
SURFACE LOW PASSAGE, WHICH WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN RAIN SOMEWHERE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MISSOURI. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WINDS
DOWN THURSDAY NIGHT.
SECOND OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH THE TRAILING SHORTWAVE
DIVING OUT OF THE PNW, HAS ALSO SEEN MORE CONSISTENCY WITH RECENT
RUNS. GUIDANCE HAS SETTLED ON THE DEEPER DIVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION, RESULTING IN RELATIVE BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES MUCH OF
FRIDAY. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY,
PREVAILING SOLUTION IS FOR IT TO DO SO AS A POSITIVELY TILTED OPEN
WAVE. WITH ITS MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK, ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK WELL S/SE OF THE AREA AS WELL, LEAVING US IN A COOLER AIR
MASS/REGIME. THE WEAKER TREND LESSENS OVERALL CONCERN FOR IMPACTFUL
WINTER WEATHER, BUT DOES NOT FULLY ELIMINATE IT. DETERMINISTIC
MODELS CURRENTLY TRACK THE MID-LEVEL FEATURES DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA, AND SUGGEST SOME BANDED SNOW POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE TOWARD THE
850-700MB REGION. THIS IS BOLSTERED WITHIN ENSEMBLES WITH MEMBERS
OFTEN SHOWING A NARROW BAND OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. FORTUNATELY, A
NUMBER OF FACTORS ARE PLAYING INTO LIMITED OVERALL CONCERN,
INCLUDING ANTECEDENT WARM GROUND (NOT A MASSIVE COLD AIR PUSH), MORE
OF A FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT PASSAGE, AND WAVE TRENDING WEAKER. FOR THE
TIME BEING, THE MORE ROBUST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST UPPER END
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITHIN A NARROW AREA, WHILE MANY
DEPICT <1" ACCUMULATIONS. THE EURO AND GFS ENSEMBLES BOTH SUGGEST
20%-40% CHANCES FOR AN INCH OR MORE OVER NW MISSOURI, AND TOO IS
REFLECTED IN THE BROADER NBM. CERTAINLY COULD/WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT
LEAST NUISANCE WINTER TRAVEL CONDITIONS, SO TAKE NOTE IF TRAVELING
FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THIS EXITS NE SATURDAY.
A STRONGER, CLOSED, WAVE WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PLAINS INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND MAY PROVIDE A QUICK/SNEAKY SHOT OF
LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND CORE/STRONGEST LIFT TO THE NE DRAMATICALLY LIMIT WHAT
IT WILL BE ABLE TO DO, GENERALLY LIMITING IT TO LIGHT TO "HEAVY"
DUSTING. FOR NOW, THIS REMAINS NOT WELL AGREED UPON WITHIN
GUIDANCE, SO LITTLE TO NO POPS ARE WITHIN THE GOING FORECAST. THE
COLDER AIR IN PLACE BY THIS TIME WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES AROUND
SEASONABLE NORMS WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S, LASTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE WARMING RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. WE'LL SEE
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN MOVING IN
AROUND 13-14Z ON THURSDAY. AS RAIN ARRIVES, EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
MOVE IN WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THEY WILL BE ABOVE OR
BELOW FL020. IN EITHER CASE, EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO IFR BY 15Z
AT THE KC METRO TERMINALS AND 17Z AT KSTJ WITH HEAVIER RAIN
REDUCING VIS TO 2-3SM THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AT 18Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CURTIS
AVIATION...MCCOY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page