130
FXUS63 KEAX 251849
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
149 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT TRENDING
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TUESDAY.
- SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS,
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL WILL ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO
MOVE OUT OF MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS AND INTO THE MIDDLE TO
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY BY TUESDAY EVENING. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO WRING OUT THE MARGINAL MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO THE SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS,
AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. THE POTENTIAL FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS ABOUT 20-30%. THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS IS
STILL VERY LOW AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10%. SO, WHILE THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL, IT'S MORE THAN LIKELY JUST GOING TO BE SHOWERS
MOVING THROUGH, IF THERE IS ANY PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE. FOR THE KANSAS
CITY AREA, NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM 63 ON MONDAY, TO 60
BY SUNDAY. FORECAST HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 70S, ABOUT 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES DROP OFF
SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK, WHILE THE RIDGING REMAINS
MOSTLY SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION, PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGING/ SURFACE HIGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WILL
MAINTAIN WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
SO IT LOOKS LIKELY WE'LL SEE HIGHS REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER
70S TO POTENTIALLY LOWER 80S, ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LATE IN THE WEEK, PRECIPITATION CHANCES START TO INCREASE, WITH
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL BY SATURDAY. THURSDAY, A FRONT
SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA, PUSHED SOUTHWARD BY A SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THAT
FRONT INTERACTS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO GIVE US OUR INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
FOR THE WEEKEND, A SERIES OF WAVES MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH
FRONT STILL IN THE VICINITY. WITH BROAD UPPER FORCING, THE
BOUNDARY IN THE AREA, AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE, WE SHOULD SEE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE A 40-60% CHANCE FOR RAIN FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WITH DECREASING CHANCES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SO UMBRELLAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANYONE OUTSIDE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. STILL, THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE WE'LL SEE SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, RAIN AMOUNTS LOOK RELATIVELY LOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE 48 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 6 AM
SUNDAY MORNING, THERE IS ROUGHLY A 1 IN 3 (30-35%) CHANCE FOR
RAIN AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH AND JUST OVER A COIN FLIP (50-60%)
FOR EXCEEDING HALF AN INCH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. SCATTERED TO
BROKEN HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5KTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
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