980
FXUS63 KEAX 261100
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
600 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019
A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY GOING
THROUGH THE AREA ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S DESPITE SOME WAA MOVING INTO
THE REGION. IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE DOES BREAK OUT IN THE AFTERNOON IT
COULD SLIP INTO THE 60S DOWNTOWN AND FURTHER SOUTH ALONG CENTRAL
KS/MO BORDER. RIDGING AND UPPER STRONG WAA WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW AND INCREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS NEAR 35MPH. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO QUICKLY WARM
UP TO NEAR 70S DEGREES AND EASILY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO
FAR. DUE TO DRIER CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES NEAR 40 PERCENT THERE
COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE AFTERNOON IN COMBINATION
WITH THE HIGHER GUSTS.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL START TO FLATTEN OUT AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXITS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL HELP
DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL KS WHICH WILL INITIATE
SOME SCATTERED ELEVATED RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENTUALLY SOME LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE AS THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL INCREASE LIFT ALONG A SEMI-STATIONARY WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A DECENT LLJ,
AMPLE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT, AND HIGH PWAT VALUES OVER 1" WILL
LEAD TO A POSSIBLE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SCENARIO ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. SOUNDINGS INDICATE POSSIBLE ELEVATED CONVECTION AND
TRAINING STORMS WITH THE STORM MOTION PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING AROUND 2" OF RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
AND UNFORTUNATELY MOSTLY OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN. THIS COULD
LEAD TO RIVER LEVELS RISING BACK UP TO MODERATE OR EVEN MAJOR FLOOD
STAGES BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY. DUE TO THIS HAVING A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
TO IT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON WHERE THE QPF MAXIMUM WILL
BE GOING INTO THE EVENT TO KEEP RIVER FORECASTS ACCURATE GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE SHORTWAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD SATURDAY LEAVING BEHIND A FLOW OF COLDER AIR AND WELL BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS. SOME RAIN SNOW MIX
CAN'T BE RULED OUT OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY MORNING EITHER.
HIGH PRESSURE AND THE COLDER AIRMASS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH
MONDAY KEEPING US RATHER COOL FOR THE END OF MARCH AND BEGINNING OF
APRIL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT TUE MAR 26 2019
SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER HAS CAUSED A FEW TERMINALS
TO SEE MVFR VISIBILITY THIS MORNING. THIS REDUCED VISIBILITY WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS IT WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER THE SUNRISE. VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD WITH A
LOW VFR CEILING MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING AN LASTING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARHAM
AVIATION...BARHAM
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