890
FXUS63 KEAX 131737
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1237 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE CURRENTLY STALLED OUT COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KC METRO, WHICH MAY BE
EXPANDED NORTHWARD DEPENDING ON TRENDS IN GUIDANCE TODAY.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
CURRENT H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER NEVADA WITH ATTENDANT TROUGHING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT HAS MOSTLY STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO NE KANSAS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES THIS
EARLY MORNING RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WHICH IS 20
TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR OCTOBER 13TH. THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID/UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH A LEE
SURFACE CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MEANWHILE,
THE PSEUDO STATIONARY COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN MO INTO EASTERN KANSAS. A SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTED BELT
OF 35 TO 55 KNOT H5 WINDS IS PROGGED TO OVERSPREAD THE CWA BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
SOARING INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE COLD FRONT (DECENT CHANCE OF BREAKING THE RECORD HIGH IN
KANSAS CITY TODAY) AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, MODERATE
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE TO THE TUNE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG
OF ML CAPE. INITIALLY DISCRETE CONVECTION IS PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST- CENTRAL KANSAS,
LIKELY GROWING UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD
TOWARD OUR CWA BY EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE PAIRING OF SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MODERATE BUOYANCY, UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED AS THEY MOVING INTO OUR CWA THIS
EVENING, WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MODEST UPTICK
IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH BY THIS EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT,
WHICH HAS PROMPTED SPC TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TO A 2%
TORNADO RISK. ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS BY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE FIRST ROUND,
WITH THIS LIKELY GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AS IT MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WITH PWATS ON THE ORDER OF 1.8" TO 2" THIS EVENING AND
INCREASING FURTHER TO 2" TO 2.2" (PER THE SPC HREF) ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY,
LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH HREF
PROBABILITY MATCHED MEANS ON THE ORDER OF 2" TO 3" ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE KC
METRO, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THUS, IN
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, HAVE WENT AHEAD AND
HOISTED A FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 10 AM
WEDNESDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE KC METRO.
DEPENDING ON HOW GUIDANCE TRENDS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WATCH COULD BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD
(INCLUDING FOR THE KC METRO).
THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH MOST (IF NOT
ALL) OF THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE FORECAST STILL
SHOWS CHANCE POPS (AROUND 50 PERCENT OR SO) THROUGHOUT THE
DAYTIME HOURS OF WEDNESDAY, QUITE A BIT OF HIGH RES GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WE MAY BE BY AND LARGE DRY OTHER THAN SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL (0.25" OR MORE) ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THE WESTERN TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO EJECT
ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS, WHICH SHOULD HELP GENERATE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS (WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS) ACROSS THE
CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING (POPS ARE 90 TO
100% ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM THURSDAY). THIS
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. RAIN SHOULD EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST BY THURSDAY EVENING
AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SCOOTS OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND THE COLD FRONT RACES WELL TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST, WITH SKIES
MOSTLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. COLDER AND
MUCH DRIER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE CWA ON FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S. MEANWHILE, A 1040 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND A 1004 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WILL YIELD A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLIDES EASTWARD CLOSER TO OUR CWA.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE CENTERED DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD, YIELDING CALM WINDS, CLEAR SKIES, AND LOW DEW POINTS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, AND
TEMPERATURES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION (WARMER OF COURSE ACROSS THE KC
URBAN HEAD ISLAND). THIS SHOULD YIELD SOME PATCHY FROST ACROSS
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN MISSOURI WHERE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE THE COLDEST.
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL MID OCTOBER DAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS. MID
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY SUNDAY, WITH
DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVING IN BY LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY DOWNSTREAM OF A TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS SHOULD
BRING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY NEXT MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 0Z TONIGHT. ANTICIPATING SHRA/TSRA TO
IMPACT TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, WITH THE PRIMARY WINDOW FOR TS BEING
AROUND 0-4Z. AFTERWARDS, ANTICIPATING THE PRESENCE OF -SHRA/SHRA
THROUGH AT LEAST 14-16Z TOMORROW. BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SITUATED
OVER THE KC METRO AREA WILL SAG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT,
SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY, RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PRECIPITATION, AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES, EXPECTING THE DEGRADATION OF VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS
TO IFR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ028-029-037-043>045-053-054.
KS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.
DISCUSSION...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...SPG
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