600
FXUS63 KEAX 220535
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1135 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BLUSTERY AND COLD TODAY, WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT
- WARMING UP TUESDAY, LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
- NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY (30-50%)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, IN
CONJUNCTION WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES,
IS IN THE PROCESS OF CREATING A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
OUR AREA THAT WILL INCREASE WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH STRONG
CAA ALOFT AND CLEAR SKIES CONTRIBUTING TO AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING,
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO CALM AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST, WITH WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. NORTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF COLDER WEATHER TO START THE WEEK, BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF
TOWARDS THE GULF. THESE WINDS WILL BE FURTHER REINFORCED BY AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
GENERATING LOW LEVEL WAA THAT WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE
SEASONALLY AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN BEGINNING TUESDAY.
BY WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME TO TUESDAY,
WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING AMPLIFYING OUT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE EJECTING
OFF THE ROCKIES. WHILE THERE IS STILL DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SHORTWAVE BETWEEN DETERMINISTIC MODELS LIKE THE GFS
AND ECMWF, THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION
STILL VARIES, WHICH COULD BE ATTRIBUTED TO CONTINUED GEOGRAPHIC
DEVIATION OF THE PLACEMENT AND PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND ITS
COINCIDENT SURFACE LOW. FOR NOW, WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FORECASTS IN ADVANCE OF THE EVENT TO SEE IF A GREATER CONSENSUS
FORMS BETWEEN MODELS. THE PRIMARY MODE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THIS
EVENT SHOULD REMAIN AS RAIN, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE
FREEZING OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS
SHORTWAVE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BEHIND IT AND
PROPAGATE EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, BRINGING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK TO HIGHER THAN NORMAL. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO LOWER
WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CURRENTLY OBSERVING SOME WIND GUSTS BEGINNING
IN THE SURROUNDING REGION, BUT STILL ANTICIPATING PREVAILING
GUSTY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN AROUND 12Z. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10-15 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS FALLING OFF AROUND 0Z AS
DAYTIME MIXING CEASES. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SPG
AVIATION...SPG
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