909
FXUS63 KEAX 210402
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1102 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
- A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
THIS WEEKEND; A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE
- DAILY RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DISPLAYS A SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF
OUR AREA OVER THE IL/IA/MO BORDER. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THE LIMITED CLOUD COVERAGE AND CAA,THIS
WILL ALLOW MORNING TEMPERATURES TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS. EXPECT LOW TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE 40S WHICH IS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AS GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE RANGED FROM 20 TO 30 MPH.
BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PRODUCE A SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE ND/SD BORDER WHICH WILL TRAVERSE TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN. THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE GFS HINTS AT A
FEW WEAK BANDS OF VORTICITY PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THE
CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ALSO KEEPS THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BELOW 20% ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. NOT TO
MENTION, EACH FORECAST RUN HAS BEEN BACKING OFF OF THE RAIN CHANCES
FURTHER DECREASING CONFIDENCE. THE 18Z HRRR IS ALSO LESS CONFIDENT
IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AS FAR AS
TEMPERATURES GO, HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE LOW 60S TO LOW 70S
STAYING BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
LEE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AS THE RESULT OF A SUBTLE H500
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. AS WE ENTER INTO THE WARM SECTOR,
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AT THE 300K SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS FROM THE NAM
DIVERGE FOR FRIDAY. THE NAM KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER WEST AND
THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA KEEPING OUR CWA DRY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE RAMPS UP PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (50%-60%) THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. WENT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. AREAS NEAR CENTRAL MO ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SEEING STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH 35-45 KTS OF BULK
SHEAR PRESENT HELPING WITH STORM FORMATION. HOWEVER, THE LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR LATE IN THE
EVENING. LAPSE RATES STAY AROUND THE 6-7 DEGREE RANGE AND MUCAPE
STAYS AROUND A 200-300 J/KG MAKING FOR A RATHER MEDIOCRE STORM
ENVIRONMENT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND, WE WILL
HAVE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. GIVEN THE HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. INSTABILITY BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE WITH CONTINUED
THETA-E ADVECTION FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS. EARLY MONDAY, CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR RAIN PERSIST AS THE THE SURFACE LOW MAKES IT EXIT
OUT OF THE REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH DESCENDS FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. VORTICITY BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR RAIN CHANCES MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK APPEAR TO CONTINUE THEIR TREND OF BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
VFR CONDS WITH CLR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THRU 13Z-14Z AFT WHICH
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. LATE IN THE PD OVC MID-LVL
CLOUDS AROUND 10-12KFT ARE FCST. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WNW
BTN 5-10KTS THRU 13Z-14Z AFT WHICH THEY WILL VEER TO THE NW AND
INCREASE TO 10-15KTS. THERE IS ALSO THE CHC FOR A FEW GUSTS TO
20KTS BTN 13Z-21Z ESPECIALLY AT KSTJ.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COLLIER
AVIATION...73
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