678
FXUS63 KEAX 200641
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
141 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES VERY LIKELY TODAY, POSSIBLE SATURDAY.
- DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL LEAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS EASTERN KS AND WESTERN
MO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT FRI MAR 20 2026
VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING, CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST, BUT
EXPANSIVE ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS, WILL VERY
LIKELY (~80%) LEAD TO RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AT BOTH
MCI AND STJ, WITH RECORDS POSSIBLE (~30-40%) ON SATURDAY AS
WELL. THE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION IS ALSO INCREDIBLY DRY, WITH
LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THROUGH SEVERAL KM OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. WHILE, FORTUNATELY, WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD,
WE WILL BE LOOKING AT SURFACE RH VALUES POTENTIALLY IN THE 10-20
PERCENT RANGE, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN KS AND WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN MO.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN/ BROADEN OUT LATER IN THE
WEEKEND, AND THAT WILL HELP TO ALLOW A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS WAVE WILL HELP PUSH A
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE HAS THIS FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PRIOR TO
PEAK HEATING, SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10+ DEGREES COOLER
SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES COULD STILL
SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO POTENTIALLY PUSHING 90 DEGREES.
GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION, THIS WILL BE
A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT, OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LIKELY WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
FOR THE MID-WEEK CHANCE, MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE DRY, WITH
LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. FOR LATER IN THE
WEEK, CHANCES ARE BETTER, WITH MORE MEMBERS SHOWING SOME
PRECIPITATION. BUT EVEN THEN, CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN
25%. SO OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS VERY LIKELY TO BE DRY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY:
KANSAS CITY: 82 (1953)
ST JOSEPH: 82 (1934)
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY:
KANSAS CITY: 91 (1934)
ST JOSEPH: 82 (1916)
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
QUIET, VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES.
BKN/OVC200 SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT. WINDS PREVAIL OUT OF
THE S/SW OVERNIGHT, SHIFTING CW THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
PREVAILING OUT OF THE NNW/N BY THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING LIGHT
AND VARIABLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
CLIMATE...CDB
AVIATION...CURTIS
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