640
FXUS63 KEAX 271747
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1147 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE AREA. RH VALUES AS LOW AS 15% AND WIND GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- IMPACTFUL WINTRY WEATHER IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. CUMULATIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK COULD BE MEASURED IN INCHES AND THERE IS 35-55%
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 2" OF RAIN FOR THE 72 HOUR PERIOD ENDING
SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO THE 70S THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING LEADING TO EXTREMELY DRY CONDITIONS.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES MAY FALL AS LOW AS 15%. WHILE WINDS WON'T
BE EXTREME, WIDE SPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED. GIVEN
THE HOT, DRY, AND WINDY SETUP, HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO A RED FLAG WARNING. ADDITIONAL,
EXPANDED THE RED FLAG WARNING SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
IMPACTFUL WINTRY WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING SUITE OF GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A BIT A NORTHWARD TREND IN THE MIXED PRECIPITATION
AREA. THIS TREND HAS SHIFTED THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF AT
LEAST 1" OF SNOW FOR THE 24 HOURS ENDING MONDAY MORNING TO BE
MAINLY NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER. ADDITIONALLY, WITH NORTHWARD
PUSH, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING HAS SHIFTED NORTH AS
WELL. WITH THE LATEST SUITE OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, THERE IS ABOUT
A 30-55% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW NORTH OF THE
RIVER. FOR FREEZING RAIN THERE IS ABOUT A 20-40% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST 0.01" NORTH OF THE RIVER. THOUGH THERE REMAINS A NARROW
CORRIDOR OF SIMILAR PROBABILITIES ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR.
THIS REMAINS A HIGHLY VARIABLE FORECAST, AS COULD BE EXPECTED,
WITH CRITICAL TEMPERATURES HOVERING/WAFFLING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. FORECAST TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE CRITICAL
RAIN/SNOW LINE CONTINUES TO VARY. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON PRECIPITATION TYPE
AND TIMING, CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTFUL WINTRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY
HIGH.
BEYOND THIS WINTRY SYSTEM, THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED
NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND EVEN POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. NATURALLY, THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING OF THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS LEADING TO THIS RAINFALL. BUT THERE IS
A STRONG SIGNAL THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID
PRECIPITATION. AND TOTALS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT WITH A 35-55% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 2" OF RAIN FOR THE 72
HOUR PERIOD ENDING SATURDAY MORNING AND A 10-20% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
3" OF RAIN FOR THE SAME TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED THRU THE PD WITH JUST OCNL FEW-SCT HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS TO BEGIN THE TAF PD WILL BE OUT OF THE W BTN
10-15KTS THRU 23Z-01Z WHEN WINDS BECOME LGT AND VRB. WINDS WILL
THEN INCR OUT OF THE E/ESE AFT 08Z-10Z TO 5-10KTS AND THEN VEER
TO THE SE AND INCR TO 10-15KTS AFT 13Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ025-057-
060-102>105.
DISCUSSION...CDB/PESEL
AVIATION...73
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