034  
FXUS63 KEAX 182006  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
306 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019  
 
PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SATURDAY AND  
SUNDAY.  
 
UPPER LEVELS FEATURE A RIDGE CENTERED JUST TO THE EAST WITH A TROUGH  
ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A SERIES OF  
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.  
 
FOR THE REST OF TODAY VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW  
MO ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NE AND IA. AND A POPUP  
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS EASTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA DUE TO  
UNSTABLE, MOIST ATMOSPHERE, AND LIFT WHICH WILL BE WEAK AT BEST SO  
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.  
 
TONIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR  
NORTH AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
NORTHERN MISSOURI BY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST  
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY AND ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP  
DUE TO UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.  
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW WITH HEAT INDICES IN  
THE LOW TO MID 90S.  
 
FRIDAY CLOUDS AND MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE  
MOVES ACROSS AREA. SO EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BETTER CHANCES  
OF PRECIPITATION.  
 
A MAJOR CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR  
HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE  
MODELS ARE TRENDING UPWARD TO AROUND 2" EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. BASED  
ON SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY, THIS IS NEAR THE MAX VALUE AND MORE THAN  
HALF AN INCH ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. WITH MOISTURE CONTRIBUTION  
CONTINUING TO SHOW UP THROUGH DEEP LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND  
UPPER-LEVEL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE PACIFIC, THIS EXTREMELY MOIST  
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS VERY POSSIBLE. THEN THROW IN A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY, UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE, AND LOW- LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE  
BOUNDARY LEADING SLOW MOVEMENT AND/OR TRAINING, IT LOOKS LIKE SOME  
AREAS WILL SEE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH  
FLOODING. THERE ARE STILL TIMING/LOCATION DISCREPANCIES IN THE  
MODELS BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN TO BE IN OR CLOSE TO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RESULTS IN RELATIVELY LOW POPS GIVEN THE HIGH QPF. AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE FRONT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND WE'LL BE BETTER ABLE TO PLACE AREAS OF HIGHER QPF WITH MORE CONFIDENCE. BUT FOR NOW, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS INCREASING DURING DAYTIME  
HOURS.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...CHRISTENSEN  
AVIATION...CHRISTENSEN  
 
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