606
FXUS63 KEAX 311123
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
623 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH 35-40 MPH GUSTS
POSSIBLE.
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS HOWEVER, AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
EARLY THIS MORNING, MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO THE
AREA HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY FROM
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL PROVIDE A RETURN TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON HOWEVER, WEAK MIXING WILL KEEP HIGHS AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL
QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE AREA TODAY SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT. A
RETURN TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO THE EAST TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S TO THE WEST. TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DIG FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THIS WILL CAUSE LEE CYCLOGENESIS AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN EASTERN
COLORADO TONIGHT WHICH WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES OUT INTO CENTRAL
PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND WILL BE CENTERED NEAR THE CENTRAL NE/KS BORDER
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS DEEPENING LOW THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI TO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE CENTRAL KS/NE BORDER TUESDAY EVENING WILL HAVE A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHEAST OF IT BISECTING THE CWA AND COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. BETWEEN 00Z-03Z A 60-65KT SOUTHWESTERLY
LLJ WILL DEVELOP AND NOSE INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL OVERRIDE HE
RETREATING WARM FRONT. THIS MAY PROVIDE LIFT CAPABLE FOR LARGE HAIL
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI EARLY IN THE EVENT. DURING THE OVERNIGHT,
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND INTO
NORTHWESTERN IOWA. THIS WILL FORCE THE WARM FRONT NORTHWARD
COMPLETELY THOUGH THE CWA AND FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. WARM
MOIST AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING TO UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60. IN
ADDITION, A RIBBON OF MUCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-1500J/KG IS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN A ENVIRONMENT OF VERY STRONG
SHEAR. STEEP MID AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS WOULD SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. WITH THE SHEAR BEING AS STRONG AS IT IS A FEW
TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT HOWEVER THE SHEAR DOES APPEAR
UNIDIRECTIONAL AND THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE STRONG SHEAR MAY ACT
TO SHEAR STORMS APART. THIS COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
CWA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING CONTINUING STORM CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A DRY PERIOD IS THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID
70S.
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACTIVE AS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY
DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW AND SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE THE LOCAL AREA UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. SEVERAL SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT AHEAD OF THIS
MAIN SYSTEM . ALTHOUGH THE FOCUS OF THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, PERIODS OF
SHOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA WITH
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS BECOME A MORE
PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WITH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. AGAIN THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA.
CONDITIONS THEN LOOK TO DRY OUT LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
MVFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE TAF SITES THRU 15Z-17Z
AFT WHICH VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCT CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT
FCST THRU 00Z. AFT 00Z...INCRG HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH BTN 5-10KTS THRU 00Z WHEN
LGT AND VRB WINDS ARE FCST. WINDS LATE IN THE PD WILL INCR OUT
OF THE SE BTN 5-10KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
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