658  
FXUS63 KEAX 181905  
AFDEAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO  
205 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH  
OF I-70.  
 
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS SATURDAY  
MORNING AND NIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE MAINLY  
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF MO. THE MAIN THREATS INCLUDE HEAVY  
RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  
 
- HAZARDOUS HEAT LIKELY BUILDING THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST  
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100-110 F. AN  
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL TAKE EFFECT TOMORROW AFTERNOON  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
 
A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD REORIENTING  
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA OUT OF THE SOUTH. INCREASED WARM AIR  
ADVECTION, THE EASTWARD SHIFTING OF A H850 THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE  
WESTERN U.S., AND GOOD DIURNAL MIXING WILL LEAD TO WARMER  
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, THERE WILL BE A  
CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE  
MORE DESTABILIZATION AND LESS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS EXPECTED.  
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE THE  
MOST CLEARING. FOR NOW (AS OF 17Z), VIS SATELLITE SHOWS PATCHES OF  
CLOUD BREAKS FARTHER EAST NEAR MOBERLY. MOST OF THE HI-RES MODELS  
KEEP CONVECTION VERY SPARSE SOUTH OF I-70. IN AREAS THAT DO DEVELOP  
STORMS, LIMITED SHEAR (0-500MB SHEAR VALUES RANGING FROM 15-25 KTS)  
SUGGEST MORE SHORT-LIVED PULSE-LIKE STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE  
ISOLATED SUB-SEVERE WIND GUSTS (NOTED BY INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS AND  
DCAPE VALUES AROUND 600-700 J/KG) AND A FEW BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALLS  
(PWATS RANGING AROUND 2 INCHES AND TALL SKINNY CAPE PROFILES).  
 
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, A H500 DISTURBANCE EXTENDING FROM TROUGHING  
WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL INITIATE AN MCS OVER IA WHICH  
WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A FEW  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY NORTH OF I-70. A FEW OF THESE  
STORMS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE CONDITIONS INCLUDING. STRONG  
WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE  
HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM THE KC  
METRO TO MACON HIGHLIGHTED BY THE SPC DAY 1 MARGINAL RISK (1/5). THE  
MCS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS NORTHERN MO AS OUR  
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE.  
 
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY THAT REMAINS IS THE INTENSIFYING OF A 25-35 KT  
LOW-LEVEL JET NOSING INTO OUR AREA NEAR THE KC METRO. THE ADDITION  
OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET COULD INCREASE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL AS  
ALLOW STORMS TO LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY  
MORNING.  
 
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHIFTS FARTHER EAST  
ALONG WITH THE H850 THERMAL RIDGE. DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW  
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB. POSSIBLE MORNING CONVECTION COULD KEEP  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-70. HOWEVER, HIGH  
TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF I-70 MAY LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 90S.  
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO REACH THE MID  
70S RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW TRIPLE DIGITS FOR AREAS  
SOUTH OF I-70. HEAT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT, A SURFACE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED  
WARM FRONT EJECT OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST.  
THIS, COMBINED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET RE-INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT WILL  
BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW-  
LEVEL JET WILL NOSE INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE MO/IA BORDER  
(HIGHLIGHTED WELL BY THE DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK) INCREASING LOW-LEVEL  
CONVERGENCE THUS, LIFT FOR STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS AT THIS TIME  
LOOK TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE WILL BE A STOUT  
CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE AREA WHICH SUGGESTS STORMS MAY BE  
ELEVATED. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THE TIMING AND  
PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURES. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE  
SOUTHEASTERN U.S COULD PUSH THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH LIMITING THE  
SEVERE RISK FOR OUR AREA. ALSO, POTENTIAL MORNING CONVECTION COULD  
ALSO IMPACT AVAILABLE ENERGY FOR THE EVENING ROUNDS.  
 
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK,  
HAZARDOUS HEAT IS EXPECTED AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPROACHES  
AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SIMULTANEOUSLY, THE 850 MB THERMAL  
RIDGE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA AND OUR WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH  
WITH A SURFACE HIGH PARKED IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HEAT INDICES  
RANGING FROM 105-110 F WILL MAKE EXTENDED PERIODS OF OUTDOOR  
ACTIVITY DANGEROUS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT AREAS NORTH OF I-  
70 MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS SPORADIC SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH  
THE FLOW BRINGING CHANCE FOR RAIN. HEAT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED  
AND WILL LIKELY STAY IN EFFECT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
 
CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO  
VFR. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CALM SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH LATER  
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS  
LATE TOMORROW MORNING. FOR NOW, LEFT IN A PROB30 GROUP DUE TO  
LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND LOCATION.  
 

 
   
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
EVENING FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025.  
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY  
FOR MOZ028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.  
KS...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
EVENING FOR KSZ025-102.  
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY  
FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...COLLIER  
AVIATION...COLLIER  
 
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