769
FXUS63 KEAX 132324
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
624 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL.
* QUIET WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURN
MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
REMNANT STORMS FROM THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO WORK THEIR WAY
ACROSS NORTHERN MO. THESE STORMS MAY STILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER, HOWEVER, THEY SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD EXTENT.
A 500-HPA ANALYSIS SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WITH A CLOSED LOW IN NORTHERN ONTARIO. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE. SOUTHERLY
FLOW HAS ALLOWED A RELATIVELY SOUPY AIRMASS TO RETURN TO THE
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S AND DEW POINTS IN
THE LOW 70S. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-80S
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH, ALONG WITH THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, WILL
ALLOW MLCAPE VALUES TO SOAR TO AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG. SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE PRESENT NEAR OR IN NORTHWESTERN MO AND
NORTHEASTERN KS. THE MOST NOTABLE OF THESE IS SITUATED JUST
SOUTH OF ST. JOSEPH. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SEEMED TO
PEG THIS AREA AS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH STORMS INITIALLY TAKING A
DISCRETE MODE. GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 40+ KTS, THIS
SUPPORTS AN INITIALLY SUPERCELLULAR STORM MODE WITH THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LCLS APPEAR
UNFAVORABLE TO TORNADO DEVELOPMENT, BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE IT
OUT. AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTERSECTS THESE STORMS, CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONGEAL INTO A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE, WHICH WILL POSE A MAIN
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES, THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR BRIEF SPIN UP
TORNADOES ALONG THE LINE AS THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES WITH
THE LLJ. STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY THE TIME
THIS HAPPENS, BUT IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON. THIS THINKING
ALIGNS WITH THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK, WHICH HAS ALL OF
WESTERN MO IN AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) RISK WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
TIMING WISE, THE MOST FAVORABLE TIMEFRAME FOR INITIAL CI LOOKS
TO BE AROUND 3-4 PM CDT. AS OF 1 PM, ATTEMPTS AT CI ARE BEING
NOTED ON SATELLITE WITH SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A WEAK CAP IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE AROUND 900-HPA, WHICH WILL NEED TO BE ERODED BEFORE
STORMS CAN REALLY TAKE OFF. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MO AROUND 5-6 PM CDT WITH A LINEAR STORM MODE TAKING
OVER BY 7 PM CDT. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA BY 1 AM CDT. HOWEVER, A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THIS
FORECAST. THE CAMS HAVE NOT HANDLED MORNING CONVECTION WELL
TODAY AND THUS BRINGS INTO QUESTION THEIR OUTPUT FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND CURRENT
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTIONS, THE PICTURE PAINTED ABOVE SEEMS LIKE THE
MOST LIKELY AT THIS POINT.
THE OTHER IMPORTANT FACTOR WITH THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. STORMS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE, BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION THAT HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE PAST
WEEK OR SO, IT WILL NOT TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR 1-2" OF NEW PRECIPITATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUS A FLOOD
WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 12Z ON SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW/MID 70S. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CYCLE
AROUND THE HUDSON BAY, AND GENERALLY PLACE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
UNDER ZONAL FLOW ON MONDAY BEFORE SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL TRAVERSE THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND PLACE THE FORECAST AREA UNDER
MULTIPLE ROUNDS FOR PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST OF THESE ROUNDS APPEARS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY INVIGORATING
SCATTERED CHANCES (15-30%) FOR PRECIPITATION. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL INCREASE CHANCES (40-60%) OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT ALONG ANOTHER BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES THIS DAY WILL
CLIMB AHEAD OF STRONG SURFACE-BASED SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH FORECAST
HIGHS REACHING THE MID/HIGH 80S. THE BOUNDARY MAY SLOW/STALL THROUGH
THURSDAY, PROMPTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO CONTINUE MOSTLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
BRIEF AMPLIFIED RIDGING TO THE WEST KEEPS REMAINING POPS LOWER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2026
A LINE OF TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH AROUND 6Z THIS EVENING. TSRA WILL BRING VERY
HEAVY RAIN, HAIL TO 2 INCHES, AND A RISK OF WINDS IN EXCESS OF
50KTS. TSRA WILL BE NEAR KSTJ AROUND 1Z, KMCI AROUND 2Z, KMKC
BETWEEN 2 AND 3Z, AND IXD BETWEEN 3 AND 5Z. AFTER, SKIES WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR, BUT SOME IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL LINGER
THROUGH 12Z AT KIXD WHERE SOME MIST IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AREA WIDE AFTER 12Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MOZ028-029-037-038-
043>045-053-054.
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.
SHORT TERM...CAROTHERS
LONG TERM...SPG
AVIATION...LUDWIG
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