785
FXUS63 KEAX 031141
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
641 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING
- ADDITIONAL FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
- COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND, START OF NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR. LOW-LEVEL STRATUS
AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRIMARILY ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
WILL RESULT IN LOW STRATUS AND FOG POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING. THE FRONT SHOULD STAY OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE EVENING. ELEVATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT CLOSER TO INTERSTATE 44 AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MISS OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, A STRONGER MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA, CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EVENTUALLY EJECTS OUT OF THE FRONT RANGE AND
LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS. STRONGER DCVA OVER THE PAST 18-24 HOURS
DEVELOPING ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
HIGH PLAINS, AND THIS WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD. SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS EXPAND EASTWARD MAINLY ALONG THE STALLED COLD FRONT BY FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WILL PUSH THE BOUNDARY
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. DEWPOINTS HAVE NOT DRASTICALLY
DECREASED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND CONTINUED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT THROUGHOUT FRIDAY WILL FOSTER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES LIKELY
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN
THE SETUP, WOULD EXPECT STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT, LEADING TO
INCREASING CLOUD COVER, SHOWERS, AND IF ANY KIND OF MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATION MOVES THROUGH, PERHAPS ELEVATED CONVECTION. THE 00Z
HRRR HINTS AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT STARTING LATE MORNING
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE SOME SMALL HAIL
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS, MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEAK.
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON, MOST CAMS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
WARM FRONT SURGING INTO CENTRAL IOWA, WITH THE TIGHTER MOISTURE
GRADIENT POSITIONED IN SOUTHERN IOWA. THE WAA AND THETA-E TRANSPORT
WILL PROVIDE MUCAPE PUSHING UPWARDS OF 2500 J/KG THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A BIG QUESTION FOR AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL BE IF CLOUD
COVER BREAKS APART AT ANY POINT. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE STILL
PRESENT EVEN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY, IT MAY TAKE A NOTABLE
COMPACT RIDGE AXIS OR SOME OTHER KIND OF SHARP BUT SHORT-LIVED SHOT
OF SUBSIDENCE TO CLEAR THINGS OUT. WITH THE MOISTURE CONTENT ON THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND EVEN UP THROUGH ABOUT 850MB, BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING MAY NOT BE AS ROBUST THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR IF DENSE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS IN PLACE. RAP AND HRRR SOUNDINGS SO FAR FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE HIGHER IN CAPE VALUES, ARE NOT OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE WITH LAPSE RATES. THE OTHER THERMODYNAMIC FACTOR, WILL BE
THE TREND OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE
H5 SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CLOSING UP, WITH A LOT OF THE MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY BEING WRAPPED AROUND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW STILL MOVES EASTWARD. AS A RESULT, H5 COOLING ABOVE THE
WARM-SECTOR WILL NOT BE AS PROMINENT IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE SURFACE
WARM SECTOR AS IT WOULD BE IF THE WAVE REMAINED OPEN AND NEGATIVELY
TITLED. THIS DISCONNECT IN KINEMATICS IS THE COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR
FRIDAY'S FORECAST BECAUSE IT LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN STORM MODE
EVOLUTION THROUGH THE EVENT.
STARTING WITH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME, WHEN MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS WELL WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WITH THE
RIGHT COMBINATION OF SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS AND CONVERGENCE
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE WARM FRONT, THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT FOR DISCRETE
ACTIVITY BETWEEN 19-21Z, PROBABLY SOME WHERE ALONG OR NORTH OF HWY.
36. CURRENT CAM GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT ANYTHING ROBUST INITIATING
ON THE WARM SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND A LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS
NEAR THE WARM FRONT SHOW THAT EVEN WITH LOWER LCLS, THE LEVEL OF
FREE CONVECTION FOR PARCELS IS STILL FAIRLY HIGH. IN ORDER TO GET
ANYTHING DURING THE AFTERNOON, WE MAY NEED SOME KIND OF MID-LEVEL
VORT MAXIMA TO PROVIDE THAT EXTRA LIFT, WHICH WILL BE HARD TO COME
BY IF THE H5 WAVE CLOSES OFF. NOW IF THE FORCING IS THERE TO GET AN
UPDRAFT, AND STORM MOTION CAN KEEP IT FROM CROSSING TO THE COOL
SIDE, THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE, WITH 0-
1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES UPWARD OF 40 KTS AND LOW-LEVEL SRH VALUES
PUSHING ABOVE 150 M^2/S^2, AND THE STRUCTURE OF THE MODEL HODOGRAPHS
DO SHOW STRONG CYCLONIC CURVATURE, ESPECIALLY IN THE AXIS OF SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS WHERE SURFACE WINDS BACK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
COULD HELP TO SUSTAIN A LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE. HOWEVER, THE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER THE WARM SECTOR COULD BE A PROBLEM. THE STRONGER H5
HEIGHT GRADIENT AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK IS SHAPING UP TO BE WELL
DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR. SO WHILE RAW VALUES
OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ARE SHOWING 40+ KTS, MOST OF THAT IS OCCURRING
WITHIN THE FIRST 0-2KM. CURRENT HRRR SOUNDING HODOGRAPHS ACTUALLY
SHOW BACKING BETWEEN 3-6KM, AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS NOT
SUBSTANTIALLY FASTER THAN THE LOWER-LEVEL FLOW. INITIAL CELLS THAT
WOULD MOVE WITH THE MEAN WIND MAY ACTUALLY EXPERIENCE SOME
SUPPRESSION. FOR DEEP CONVECTION TO BE FULLY SUPPORTED BY THE WIND
SHEAR, A LEFT-MOVER WOULD HAVE THE BEST KINEMATIC SUPPORT FOR
SUSTAINING DEVELOPMENT, BUT THAT WOULD ALSO BE MORE LIKELY TO TAKE
ITS MOTION ACROSS THE BOUNDARY TO THE COOL SIDE. THEREFORE, IF
INITIATION HAPPENS NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND DEVIATES
LEFT, WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGER HAIL, PERHAPS ABOVE 2
INCHES. LIMITING FACTOR WOULD BE THE LAPSE RATES AS CURRENTLY
PROGGED, BUT JUST ENOUGH CAPE THROUGH THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE MAY STILL
BE PRESENT. THE LOW-LEVEL SRH AND HODOGRAPH SHAPE WOULD SUGGEST SOME
TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH DISCRETE CONVECTION ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY AS LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT COULD BE FAVORED,
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY RIGHTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER, UNSURE IF THE DEEPER
LAYER SHEAR WOULD BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN SUCH AN UPDRAFT FOR A LONG
ENOUGH PERIOD THAT ALLOW THE LOW-LEVEL MESO TO PERSIST. ANY DISCRETE
CONVECTION ON THE WARM SIDE WOULD ALSO PRESENT A WIND THREAT,
ESPECIALLY IF A SUPERCELL MODE COULD BE ACHIEVED. THIS AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT IS THE LOWER CONFIDENT PART OF THE FORECAST WITH
UNCERTAINTY IF THINGS WILL EVEN INITIATE, AND THEN WILL IT HAVE WHAT
IT NEEDS TO BE SUSTAINED. WATCHING THE WIND PROFILE AND TRACKING
AREAS OF CLEARING WILL BE THE MAIN MESOANALYSIS TASK THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SURFACE CYCLONE MOVES
EASTWARD, AND MAY DEEPEN SOME BUT THE MAIN DCVA DISPLACED NORTHWEST
MAY PREVENT FURTHER DEEPENING BY THE EVENING HOURS. ATTENTION WILL
THEN TURN TO THE COLD FRONT AND INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG IT, AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRIPLE POINT IF THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO OCCLUDE.
THIS WOULD LIKELY DEVELOP IN NORTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE EVENING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD FRONT, THOUGH A LOT OF IT MAY BE CONFINED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS THE CLOSED H5 LOW MOVES EASTWARD, ALLOWING FOR BETTER MID-
LEVEL FLOW HEADING INTO THE EVENING (COMPARED TO THE AFTERNOON).
WHILE CONVERGENCE INCREASES, THERE MAY A BRIEF WINDOW BETWEEN 22Z-
00Z WHERE A DISCRETE UPDRAFT COULD TAKE ON A SUPERCELLULAR MODE WITH
ITS INFLOW TAKING ADVANTAGE OF THE WARM-SECTOR, PRESENTING ALL
SEVERE HAZARDS. LARGER HAIL SHOULD BE SUPPORTED WITH BETTER LIFT,
AND PERHAPS BETTER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MID-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD
ALSO BE BETTER THAT WOULD NOT SUPPRESS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT IN THE
SAME WAY THAT THE WARM FRONT SETUP COULD EARLIER IN THE DAY (ALONG
WITH FAVORABLE STORM MOTION TOWARD THE WARM SECTOR). LOW-LEVEL SRH
VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH AND LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COULD STILL BE
CURVED CYCLONICALLY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH A
DISCRETE STORM, ESPECIALLY ALONG A TRIPLE POINT IF SURFACE WINDS CAN
REMAIN BACKED. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THIS CORRIDOR WOULD PROBABLY BE
ALONG OR NORTH OF HWY. 36 IF A TRIPLE POINT DEVELOPS. ALONG THE REST
OF THE COLD FRONT AND REMAINDER OF THE WARM SECTOR SOUTH OF HWY. 36,
SURFACE WINDS MAY VEER, WHICH WOULD REDUCE SRH QUITE A BIT. AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET THEN CRANKS UP, MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FILL IN,
EVENTUALLY LEADING TO AN MCS AND QLCS OF SOME KIND. WITH DECENT 0-
3KM BULK SHEAR, A WELL ORGANIZED QLCS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION, BUT JUST DEPENDS ON HOW RAPIDLY THE UPSCALE GROWTH OCCURS.
AS THIS DEVELOPS, DAMAGING WINDS BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT. IF A
STRONG QLCS MODE IS REALIZED, THE KINEMATICS MAY BE THERE TO SUPPORT
MESOVORTEX GENERATION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE. THIS MAY
REQUIRE NOTABLE SURGES AND REAR-INFLOW JETS TO DEVELOP FOR THIS TO
BE ACHIEVED THOUGH. MOST CAMS ARE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS
FRONT, HAVING THE SYSTEM PAST HWY. 63 IN CENTRAL MISSOURI BETWEEN 04-
05Z. WE WILL SEE IF THIS CHANGES WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS,
ESPECIALLY WITH THAT MID-LEVEL WAVE CLOSING OFF, THAT MAY DELAY THE
PROPAGATION OF THE COLD FRONT.
WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR, PWATS
ARE PROGGED TO REACH AROUND 1.75 INCHES ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
EXPECTED QLCS OR MCS AND WITH ENOUGH MUCAPE INTO EVENING, MAY LEAD
TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. THIS SYSTEM THOUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM THOUGH, WHICH SHOULD HELP
TO LIMIT TRAINING STORMS. BUT, FOR OUR EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
FORECAST ZONES THAT ARE STILL SEEING LINGERING FLOODING, MAY BE
AUGMENTED ONCE AGAIN EVEN IF EVENT TOTAL QPF IS NO MORE THAN 2
INCHES. AT THIS POINT, HAVE NOT ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH YET, BUT AS 06Z
GUIDANCE COMES IN, A FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OR EVEN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. RIVER
AND CREEKS THROUGHOUT CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY CONTINUE TO SEE RISES AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.
AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY
MORNING, AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL PROVIDE MID-
LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND, PROVIDING AN AVA REGIME AND SURFACE ANTICYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK
PERTURBATION THROUGH THE FLOW MAY PROVIDE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO
PORTIONS OF MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD, LOW-LEVEL RETURNS SOUTHERLY AND SHOULD
PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THRU 05Z-06Z BEFORE CIGS BECOME VFR.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSS AT THE TERMINALS BTN
21Z-01Z REDUCING VIS TO 4SM-5SM. WINDS TO BEGIN HE TAF PD WILL
BE OUT OF THE SE BTN 12-18KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS BUT WILL
BECOME SOUTHERLY AFT 16Z-17Z AT 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND
25KTS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE TAF SITES BTN 00Z-01Z
SHIFTING WINDS TO THE WNW BTN 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS
WHICH WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10KTS AFT 05Z-06Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KRULL
AVIATION...73
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