460
FXUS63 KEAX 170514
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1114 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30-60%) AND STRONG WINDS
(>70% CHANCE OF 45-MPH WIND GUSTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING)
THE PRIMARY IMPACTS.
- FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THE STRONG WINDS FORECAST, ESPECIALLY IF WETTING RAINFALL
DOES NOT OCCUR.
- WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE
STRONG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
TODAY'S WEATHER IS DECIDEDLY PLEASANT, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT, WITH WINDS CALMING AFTER SUNSET AND TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S BY DAYBREAK. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR FOG FORMATION, BUT I DO
EXPECT THE FAVORABLE LOW-LYING SPOTS AND RIVER VALLEYS TO
FEATURE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. ANOTHER BALMY AND QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, WITH
MOST AREAS WELL INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.
A STRONG SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL
TREK NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING A BREEZY AFTERNOON/EVENING TO THE REGION AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES RAPIDLY DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES UNUSUALLY MILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT (OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). WITH
SUBSTANTIAL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER LIFT VIA
STRONG DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION, THE QUICK
PACE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE THE MAIN/ONLY LIMITING FACTOR IN
BRINGING US MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND STRONGER AND WETTER WITH THE SYSTEM, WITH POPS
NOTICEABLY INCREASING TO 30-60+ PERCENT ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FORCING MAY BE SO STRONG
AND LOW-LEVEL MIXING SUFFICIENT THAT SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY
IS GENERATED, ESPECIALLY IN FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
AS THE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH CHANCES ARE
STILL PRETTY LOW (GENERALLY LESS THAN 15%).
HOWEVER, THE SHOWERS WILL BE WORKING WITH VERY STRONG WIND
PROFILES, SO ANY DOWNWARD MOMENTUM GENERATED BY THE (SHALLOW)
CONVECTION MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS
AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. REGARDLESS OF THAT THREAT, WINDS WILL BE
CRANKING AS COLDER/DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND GUSTS
WILL BE REACHED DURING THIS PERIOD, AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
HAVE INCREASED (AS EXPECTED), WITH A 50-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF
45-MPH GUSTS IN MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. ONE CONCERN WITH SUCH STRONG WINDS AND A VERY DRY PAST
FEW MONTHS IS FIRE-WEATHER POTENTIAL. THOUGH THIS COULD BE
CURTAILED TO SOME DEGREE BY RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING,
FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL LIGHT (MAINLY LESS THAN A
QUARTER INCH, AND BARELY MEASURABLE SOUTH AND WEST OF KC). WITH
SUCH STRONG WINDS FORECAST, CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY
OCCUR DESPITE MARGINAL RELATIVE-HUMIDITY VALUES. ADDITIONALLY,
IF THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA STAYS DRY, I SUSPECT FORECAST RH WILL
NEED TO BE LOWERED THURSDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE VERY STRONG
MIXING EXPECTED. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT NOT BEFORE THE
COLDER AIR SURGES IN TO CREATE AN UNCOMFORTABLY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS
OR LOW TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
THEREAFTER, THE PATTERN RETURNS TO STATUS QUO, WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW AND A RIDGE NOSING INTO MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S. SOME FAST-MOVING AND LOW-AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN U.S. IN THIS REGIME, BUT THESE WILL BE
MOISTURE-STARVED AND WILL GENERATE LITTLE APPRECIABLE LIFT IN
OUR REGION FOR ANY NOTEWORTHY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WITH THE
GRADUAL BUILDING RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS ON SATURDAY. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATIONS (ONE ON SUNDAY,
FOR EXAMPLE), ANY TEMPERATURE DROPS SHOULD BRIEFLY TAKE US TO
NEAR-AVERAGE VALUES (UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR HIGHS) BEFORE A
QUICK REBOUND TO 10-15+ DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE A DAY OR TWO
LATER. POPS ARE UNMENTIONABLE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WHICH IS
BAD NEWS GIVEN OUR ONGOING DROUGHT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY.
THEN WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW EVENING INTO THE EVERNIGHT, OUT OF
THE SOUTH, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KTS LIKELY. THIS IS A STRONG WARM
AND MOIST ADVECTION REGIME AND THOSE STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL
ADVECT LOW CLOUDS NORTH INTO THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z
THURSDAY. LOW MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY (>80%) AS THIS
LOWER MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CMS
AVIATION...CDB
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