918
FXUS63 KEAX 261130
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
530 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2021
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2021
THE MAIN CONCERN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE FOR CONTINUED LIGHT
SNOW THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH ONLY A ADDITIONAL DUSTING IS EXPECTED. AS
SUCH THE WARNING IS EXPECTED TO BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OR EVEN BE
CANCELLED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE OTHER FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE FOR
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FORECAST AREA WIDE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF HALF AN INCH UP TO 2 INCHES IN SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS. THIS MAY AFFECT THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
THIS MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, THAT WAS THE CATALYST FOR
YESTERDAY'S HEAVY SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI, IS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SNOW AND DRIZZLE TO FALL ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PULL OFF THE THE
NORTHEAST TODAY AND WEAKEN AS IT DOES. THIS WILL BRING PRECIPITATION
TO AN END ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE MORNING. CONTINUED MODEST
CAA TODAY COUPLE WITH CLOUD COVER AND SNOW PACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
TONIGHT, A QUICK MOVING MID-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH RESIDES OVER THE
WESTERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING, WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE MEAGER SO THE
WILL BE A LOW QPF EVENT GENERALLY 0.05"-0.10" HOWEVER, WILL THE COLD
CONDITIONS IN PLACE, SNOW RATIOS OF 12-15 TO 1 SEEM REASONABLE. THIS
WILL PRODUCE SNOW TOTALS OF 0.5"-2". A LOW-END WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE. THIS QUICK
MOVING SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER, IT
MAY CAUSE ISSUES FOR THE WEDNESDAY AM COMMUTE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL
ONLY REACH THE LOWER 20S TO LOWER 30S MAKING IT ONE OF THE COLDEST
DAYS THUS FAR THIS WINTER.
CONDITIONS LOOK DRY OUT WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
CONUS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE NORTH
WHERE SNOWPACK WILL HINDER WARMING TO THE MID 40S SOUTH. FRIDAY, THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WITH INCREASED
WAA AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO THE NORTH AND MID 50S SOUTH.
SATURDAY, A STACKED LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
COPIOUS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. PWATS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH WHICH IS
IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE. EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S TO MID 50S.
CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS RETURN NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
HOWEVER, A WARM UP IS AGAIN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST TUE JAN 26 2021
MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THRU 04Z-06Z WHEN CIGS/VIS WILL BECOME IFR
WITH LIGHT SNOW AND FOG. EXPECT VIS TO BE REDUCED TO 1-3SM IN
SNOW. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE N AROUND 10KTS THRU 20Z-22Z BEFORE
BECMG NNE BTN 5-10KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...73
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