674
FXUS63 KEAX 171724
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1124 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT -
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES (30% SOUTH TO 80% NORTH) AND STRONG
WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 45 MPH LIKELY (>50% PROBABILITY FOR WIND
GUSTS TO EXCEED 45 MPH NORTH OF THE MO RIVER)
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, DUE MAINLY
TO THE STRONG WINDS BUT ALSO WITH HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING
INTO THE 25- 35% RANGE.
- WIND CHILL VALUES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE
ZERO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM, WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE IN THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WILL QUICKLY TRACK EASTWARD TODAY AND BEGIN
AFFECTING THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING, SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND BEGIN TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT. THIS WARM, MOIST ADVECTION WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR RAIN TO THE AREA, MOST LIKELY STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
AREAS MAINLY WEST OF I-35. THOSE CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE AND
SPREAD EAST IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, MOVING EAST OF THE AREA BY
NOON THURSDAY. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY LOOKS TIED TO THE PACIFIC
FRONT. THE COLD AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE POLAR FRONT
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FROM THE 40S AND 50S, INTO THE 20S AND 30S BETWEEN 3PM
AND 9PM, WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO FALL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY FRIDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
AND 20S ARE EXPECTED. WHILE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LOWER THAN DURING
THE THURSDAY, WITH THE COLD AIR MOVING IN, WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.
REGARDING WINDS FOR THE DAY ON THURSDAY, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL PV
ANOMALY MOVING OVERHEAD, THIS WILL HELP INDUCE STEEP LOWER-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, ENABLING STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE 25- 30 MPH RANGE, STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST INTO
A CORE OF 40KT TO POTENTIALLY 50KT WINDS AT 1 TO 1.5KM AGL. NOT
ALL OF THIS WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE BUT A LOT OF IT WILL AND
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 45 MPH ARE VERY LIKELY (>85%
CHANCE). ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PROBABILITIES
FOR MAX WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 45 MPH. EVEN THE LOW END OF A
25TH-75TH PERCENTILE SPREAD IS ABOVE 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
MO AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KS. THE HIGH END HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA (58+ MPH). THE TIMING FOR THESE
STRONG WINDS LOOKS FROM LATE MORNING ON THURSDAY THROUGH
POTENTIALLY MIDNIGHT IN OUR EASTERN ZONES, WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. AFTER
MUCH COLLABORATION, A WIND ADVISORY WAS COORDINATED FOR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF I-35, INCLUDING THE KC METRO. IT'S QUITE
POSSIBLE THIS WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED BUT FOR, THE ADVISORY
COVERS THE AREAS WHERE I AM MOST CONFIDENT THAT WILL 45+ MPH
WIND GUSTS.
THE OTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD WITH THIS STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS IS PRIMARILY BEING
DRIVEN BY THE STRONG WINDS. BUT WE'LL ALSO SEE HUMIDITY VALUES
DROP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN KS INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN MO WHERE MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES FALL INTO
THE 25-35% RANGE. THE MORE WIND GUSTS EXCEED HUMIDITY VALUES,
THE GREATER THE FIRE RISK, IF UNDERLYING CONDITIONS ARE DRY
ENOUGH, AND THIS AREA WILL SEE WIND GUSTS NEAR TO EXCEEDING 45
MPH. THE LATEST MAX DAILY GUIDANCE FROM THE HOT DRY WINDY INDEX
(HDWI) SHOWS A NUMBER OF MEMBERS ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR
THE 1981-2010 CLIMATOLOGY AND HIGHLIGHTS THE ABOVE DESCRIBED
AREA WELL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST CURRENTLY LOOKS DRY AND WITH STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL. WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR 60+ DEGREE
HIGH TEMPERATURES THE WEEK OF CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO LAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH. HEADING INTO THIS
EVENING, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL BRING LOWERED CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AND WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, JUST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, STRONG
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40-45 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MOZ001>005-
011>014-020>022-028>030-037-043.
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR KSZ025-057-
102>105.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...COLLIER
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