118
FXUS63 KEAX 191921
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
221 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ONLY
SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR EXTREME NW MO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
THE PREVAILING PATTERN OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT
WEEK WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY VARYING MAGNITUDES/PLACEMENT OF
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. INITIALLY, THAT RIDGING IS SOMEWHAT
SUPPRESSED WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. THIS IS
ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER- LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO SPREAD CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA AS THAT WAVE TRACKS TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE HAVE BEEN SOME RETURNS SHOW UP ON REGIONAL
COMPOSITE REFLECTIVITY BUT WITH A DEEP LAYER OF DRY AIR THROUGH
AT LEAST THE LOWEST 12000 FT OF THE ATMOSPHERE, THERE IS ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE FOR ANYTHING HITTING THE GROUND. A SIMILAR SCENARIO
WILL PLAY OUT TOMORROW WITH THE RIDGE SUPPRESSED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, LEADING TO MAINLY JUST
INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE
THOUGH, CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE, MAINLY OVER
EASTERN KS AND ADJACENT AREAS OF MISSOURI. STILL, POPS ARE
10-15% OR LESS THROUGH THE AREA.
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THE PLAINS STATES, LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA AND SUPPRESSING ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. THAT PERSISTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE THE RIDGE AXIS AGAIN SHIFTS TO
THE EAST AND THEN FLATTENS OUT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS,
IT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO RETURN TO THE
AREA. BUT EVEN THIS LOOKS CONFINED TO FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI AND
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN KANSAS. THE REST OF THE AREA IS STILL VERY
LIKELY (>90%) TO STAY DRY THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY TOMORROW. HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS, ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION, WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT. THOUGH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB
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