474
FXUS63 KEAX 231723
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1123 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* PERIODS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-8"
ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
* WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER PICTURE HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND ARCTIC AIR
SPILLING INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES TUMBLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS F
BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 MPH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY, WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SUB-ZERO THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS EXPECTED A
FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SUBZERO WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AS ARCTIC AIR
REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE CENTRAL US.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST IS EXPECTED
TO FRAGMENT INTO SEVERAL SMALLER SHORTWAVES LEADING TO SURGES OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND.
WITH THE ARCTIC AIRMASS WELL ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION, ANY
PRECIPITATION FALLING ACROSS EASTERN KS INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI WILL BEGIN AND REMAIN AS SNOW. FIRST IN THE SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE THE REGION THIS EVENING, BUT
WILL BE FIGHTING AN IMMENSE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE SUB CLOUD
LAYER. AS SUCH, HAVE SLOWED POPS AND DELAYED WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY/WINTER STORM WARNING TO SATURDAY MORNING AT MIDNIGHT. AS
THIS SHORT WAVE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, GOOD JET DYNAMICS
REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 180+
KNOT JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REMAINS ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST MID DAY SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
IS ENHANCED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A SECONDARY JET STREAK THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. WITH THE FRIGID AIRMASS IN PLACE, THE DENDRITIC
LAYER EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY FROM THE SURFACE TO 550 MB IN THE
ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO VERY EFFICIENT ICE/SNOW GROWTH. WITH SNOW
RATIOS IN THE VICINITY OF 17-19:1, EXPECT A DRIER THAN NORMAL SNOW
TO GRADUALLY ACCUMULATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LARGELY BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE SHORT WAVES BOTH ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNINGS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST AS SECOND WAVE DEEPENS ALONG THE EAST
COAST AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TAKES OVER DRYING OUT THE
ATMOSPHERE.
IN TERMS OF SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, EXPECT 4-8 INCHES OF
SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE NORTH.
THE FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
LOCATIONS TO RADIATE WELL LEADING TO THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
SEASON THUSFAR WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO. THE
RECORD LOW OF -10 F FOR MCI ON MONDAY IS IN QUESTION.
FLOW BRIEFLY TURNS WESTERLY LEADING TO WARMING ON TUESDAY, BUT
ADDITIONAL PUSHES OF ARCTIC AIR ARE EXPECTED TO SPILL SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
NORMAL WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING. SNOW WILL ARRIVE BY LATE EVENING AND WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE A LULL LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BRING
MVFR VISIBILITIES STARTING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH IFR
VISIBILITIES STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARRIVING BY MID-
MORNING. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MOZ001-
011>014-020>025-031>033.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR MOZ020>023-028>032-037>040-043>046-053-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
SATURDAY FOR MOZ028>030-037>040-043>046-053-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR MOZ001>008-011>017-024-025-033.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MOZ002>008-
015>017.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MOZ002>008-
015>017.
KS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR KSZ025-102.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR KSZ025-057-060-102>105.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
SATURDAY FOR KSZ057-060-103>105.
DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...BT
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