389
FXUS63 KEAX 071957
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
257 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. HEAVY
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH STORMS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT LEADING
TO RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR.
* WARM AND MUGGY CONDITION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY, WITH HEAT
AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING TO BUILD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HEAT
INDICES IN EXCESS OF 100 F ARE POSSIBLE-LIKELY.
* ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES LATE WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR
STORMS RETURNING TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
MESSY/UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL KS. MCV
ACROSS EASTERN KS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE
DISTURBANCE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST. BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 300-
310K SURFACES WILL ASSIST WITH THE LIFT CREATING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. STORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI AS OF 19Z, AND EXPECT THEM TO
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MCV SHIFTS EAST AND LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.9-2.0" (NEAR THE DAILY MAX FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). ALSO
HAVE DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS LEADING TO VERY EFFICENT RAINFALL. BAND
OF SHOWERS WHICH MOVED THROUGH THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO HYDRO-
PLANING ISSUES ON AREA ROADWAYS AND SAW RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING
2"/HR, AND EXPECT SIMILAR RAINFALL RATES WITH STORMS TONIGHT. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOWERED ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL,
AND IS GENERALLY IN THE 1-2"/3 HOURS AND 1.5-3"/6 HRS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. HAVE COORDINATED A FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI, WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE MOST LIKELY. IN ADDITION
TO THE FLOODING THREAT, THERE IS A POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT WITH 1000-
1700 J/KG OF CAPE. WIND SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAK, BUT COULD SEE BRIEF
SPIKES IN STORMS OR AN ENHANCEMENT THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES KEEPING THE ATMOSPHERE FROM DECOUPLING SUBSTANTIALLY.
RAINFALL THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS MCV/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST. MUGGY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN
HOWEVER, AND UPPER RIDGING WILL LEAD TO WARMING INTO THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S. SOUPY AIRMASS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION WILL
PROMOTE HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 F TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGLY
CONSIDERED A HEAT ADVISORY FOR EASTERN KS/WESTERN MISSOURI INCLUDING
THE KC METRO GIVEN THE FIRST HEAT EVENT OF THE YEAR, BUT THROUGH
COORDINATION, HELD OFF FOR NOW. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG
CONSIDERATION FOR FUTURE SHIFTS.
UPPER RIDGE SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF WEAKENING ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS TROUGH DEVELOPS IN EASTERN MONTANA AND LIFTS NOURTHEAST. TRAILING
COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ASSISTED BY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
OUTLOOKED NORTHERN MISSOURI FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
THE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE POTENTIALLY
LIFTING BACK NORTH AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS IN ZONAL
FLOW LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING NORTH WITH MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED IN WAVES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE TAF
SITES. THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTS EAST OF THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. AFTER 08Z, STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED LARGELY ACROSS IOWA, WITH A RENEWED
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. AT THIS
POINT, THE THOUGHT IS MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WOULD BE FOCUSED
SOUTH, BUT COULD SEE LOWER CEILINGS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
RISE AND SCALTTER OUT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOZ039-040-044>046-
054.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...BT
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