946
FXUS63 KEAX 192328
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
628 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE NORTH TO SOUTH THIS EVENING
WITH LINGERING LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW MORNING.
- SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAVY
RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN MO, A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
CURRENT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER EASTERN MO THIS AFTERNOON AND IS
SLOWLY BEING SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A COLD FRONT MARCHES
ACROSS IA. RETURN FLOW FROM THE EXITING HIGH IS ALLOWING FOR
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO START STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION PROMOTING WARM
AIR ADVECTION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 80S.
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT:
THIS AFTERNOON ENHANCED ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER KS WILL INTERACT WITH A
SHORTWAVE ALOFT SPAWNING SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS. THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH NORTHERN MO WITH THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT INTERSECTING OVER OUR
CWA. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG AND PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WEEKEND:
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE METRO WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP IN THE EVENING HOURS
AS A LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE EASTERN ROCKIES STRENGTHENS AND
TRACKS THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ABLE TO TAP
INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE WITH THE GEFS SHOWCASING PWATS OF 2"
STREAMING INTO NORTHERN MO. FOR CONTEXT, THAT IS ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE SIGNAL IN THE EFI GREATER THAN
0.80 HAS EXPANDED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS AND SLIGHTLY SHIFTED
SOUTH, IT NOW ENCOMPASSES ALL OF NORTHERN MO AND IS KNOCKING ON THE
DOORSTEP OF THE KC METRO. SHIFT OF TAILS REMAINS AT 1 GIVING
CREDENCE TO SOME LOWER PROBABILITIES OF OVER ACHIEVEMENT OUTSIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A TOTALLY MOIST PROFILE THROUGH
THE THE ATMOSPHERE WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS IN EXCESS OF 10K FT WHICH
WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND WE HAVE
A FLOOD WATCH OUT NORTHERN MO TARGETING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL BE OVER THE REGION. BUT THE MAIN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS WILL FEED INTO THESE STORMS WITH AN MCS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND ROLL THROUGH THE CWA IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE HEAVY
RAINFALL IS THE MORE WIDESPREAD CONCERN, SEVERE WEATHER CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST HIGH RES GUIDANCE SHOWS VARYING
FLAVORS OF TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF KEY FEATURES BUT THEY ARE HONING
IN ON SOME INCREASED UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS OWING TO STRONGER
STORMS. SPC HAS OUR AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) WITH
THE NORTHWEST CORNER AND THE KC METRO IN A SLIGHT RISK (2/5).
CONTINUED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE
SYSTEM EXITING THE REGION IN THE EVENING HOURS. BY THIS POINT OUR
REGION MAY HAVE SEEN SOME EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH ONGOING FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE AND RIVER RISES TO MODERATE LEVELS. DEPENDING ON
ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY AND THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WE
COULD SEE A LINGERING CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS. SPC HAS OUR SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES IN A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) AND EVERYTHING NORTH OF THAT
IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/5).
MONDAY THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL BE TAPERED BACK TO A
COMFORTABLE MID 70 WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. A GRADUAL WARM
UP FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE PATTERN TURNS ACTIVE AGAIN.
WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES OF 20-30% RETURN ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL SLUG OF RAIN CONTINUES TO DRY UP WHILE PUSHING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DUE TO LARGE SUB-CLOUD DRY AIR WITH SURFACE DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS 20-25+ DEGREES, THUS VFR CLOUD BASES AND VISIBILITY WITH
ANY SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN EARLY ON. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT/SAT AM WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER A STALLED
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR MENTION.
CAMS AND INTERNAL MODEL SIGNALS ARE SUGGESTING A GROWING SIGNAL FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SAT PM (AFTER 18Z-20Z) WITH A POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WAVE TOPPING A ROCKIES RIDGE AND SLIDING
SE. I HAVE STARTED WITH PROB30 MENTION BEING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040.
KS...FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
KSZ025-102>105.
SHORT TERM...BRITT
LONG TERM...BRITT
AVIATION...MCCLURE
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