472
FXUS63 KEAX 101726
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES (60-75%) FOR SHOWER AND STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. HURRICANE ISAIAS HAS MADE
LANDFALL ALONG THE GULF COAST AND WILL BE ABSORBED INTO THE
PATTERN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WHILE THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL STAY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA,
THE ABSORPTION INTO THE PATTERN WILL KEEP THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING
EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE PRESSURE FIELDS SURROUNDING
THE LOW HAVE INDUCED SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW, IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE,
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
EARLY-TO-MID OCTOBER BY 15-20 DEGREES. HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE IN
THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-70 POTENTIALLY PUSHING ABOVE 90F. THIS FORECAST
BRINGS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO PLAY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AT KMCI (89F IN 1962 AND 91F IN 1899 RESPECTIVELY) AND KSTJ (89F
IN 1989 AND 2024 AND 92F IN 1975 RESPECTIVELY).
AS HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLES, A GOOD
DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY ENTERS THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY REGARDING
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
SPLIT ON HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE SIMON REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS. FASTER SOLUTIONS
(GFS AND GEFS) PRESENT LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS (ECMWF AND ENS) FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS AND A DRY FORECAST. LREF QUARTILE SPREADS HAVE
NARROWED SLIGHTLY FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND ARE NOW ON THE
ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES (76F
AND 87F RESPECTIVELY IN THE KC METRO).
REGARDLESS OF FASTER OR SLOWER SOLUTION, PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY TO 60-75%. THIS IS DUE TO A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS EJECTING EASTWARD AND INCITING LEE
CYCLOGENESIS IN EASTERN CO. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SOURCE OF LIFT TO THE AREA IN CONJUNCTION
WITH UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE SHORTWAVE. HOW FAR NORTH THE
WARM FRONT MAKES IT ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE DICTATED BY HOW FAR
SOUTH THE UPPER-LEVEL TOUGH DIGS BEFORE EJECTING EASTWARD, WHICH
WILL DRIVE THE LOCATION OF LEE CYCLOGENESIS. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT WILL SEE 500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE BUILD BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH 40-50 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR CREATING A CLASSIC
HIGH SHEAR, LOW CAPE SETUP FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THOUGH WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT A COUPLE
MORE HOURS FOR THE NEXT SPC OUTLOOK (AROUND 09Z), THERE IS
CURRENTLY A DAY 6 SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA (INCLUDING THE KC METRO) FOR WEDNESDAY.
AS THE TROUGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCE EAST, A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY, WHICH SHOULD BRING FALL
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEEING SOME SPORADIC GUSTS
AROUND TERMINALS WITH DAYTIME MIXING, SO HAVE KEPT MENTIONS OF
GUSTS THROUGH 0Z. OTHERWISE, WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
PERIOD, WITH MINIMAL/NO SKY COVER EXPECTED. AREAS OF NE KS/NW MO
COULD SEE GUSTS RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON BY 16Z.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CAROTHERS
AVIATION...SPG
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