542
FXUS63 KEAX 071112
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
612 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH RAIN RETURNING THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH THE ONLY
NOTABLE EFFECTS BEING A SHIFT OF WINDS FROM LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TO
LIGHT NORTHERLY AND SOME MODEST MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS IT'S SLIDING SOUTH. OTHERWISE, WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS NEARING 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN OUR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, THOUGH
STILL MUCH ABOVE NORMAL, FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, ALLOWING SURFACE/ LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME
SOUTHEASTERLY. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT DEVELOPING
PRECIPITATION ALONG THE NOSE OF DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET
THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE AND FORCING
IS NORTH OF THE AREA AND WE'LL SEE LITTLE IF ANY CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION, EVEN IN FAR NORTHERN MISSOURI.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND THEN MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST. AS IT'S DOING THIS,
IT WILL FORCE WHAT'S LEFT OF CURRENT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9, AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL AREA WITH LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER.
ALL OF THIS WILL OCCUR WITHIN A BROADER SCALE UPPER RIDGE
MIGRATING ACROSS NORTH AMERICA, KEEPING THE TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. IT'S NOT UNTIL THE TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME THAT
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA, WHEN A WEAK
BOUNDARY MAY SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA. WITH MODEST MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO THAT BOUNDARY, THERE'S AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.
LOOKING AT THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, IT
CURRENTLY LOOKS MORE ACTIVE. ENSEMBLE 500MB HEIGHT CLUSTERS ARE
SHOWING A MIX OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND MORE
SUBTLE/WEAKER TROUGHING DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH. BY WEDNESDAY,
THIS BECOMES EVEN LESS DISTINCT AS THE GUIDANCE SPREAD
INCREASES. BUT A DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST WOULD BE A
MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR PRECIPITATION, AS IT
WOULD TEND TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND EJECT EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS STILL SO THINGS WILL CHANGE INEVITABLY BETWEEN NOW AND
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING FROM VARIABLE AT 5-7KTS TO NORTHERLY AT 5-8KTS.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...73
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