716
FXUS63 KEAX 211659
AFDEAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1059 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MULTIPLE WAVES OF LIGHT SHOWERS
EXPECTED STARTING EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO 2025.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING AT THE
SURFACE KEEPS SKIES CLEAR AND COLD AIR AROUND TO START SATURDAY
MORNING. THE TROUGH'S CONTINUED EASTERN PROGRESSION MOVES THE WIND
MAXIMUMS OUT OF THE AREA MAKING SATURDAY A BIT LESS BRISK THAN
FRIDAY. WHILE OVERALL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ADVECTING COLD AIR
INTO THE REGION, A SMALL SYNOPTIC RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
KEEPS THINGS CLEAR WITH DIURNAL HEATING ABLE TO ELEVATE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FRIDAY. MOST AREAS LOOK TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 30S WITH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE AREA CRESTING 40
DEGREES.
AS THE RIDGE SLIDES FURTHER EAST SUNDAY, MIDLEVEL WINDS TURN OUT OF
THE SOUTH CREATING A WARM CONVEYOR NORTHWARD. THIS FLOW IS ENHANCED
BY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WHICH ROCKETS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY.
THIS PULLS WARM AIR AND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LIFTING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR SUNDAY. MOISTURE TRANSPORT NEEDS TO DO A
LOT OF WORK TO OVERCOME THE DRY COLD AIR LEFT BY THE PASSAGE OF
THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT. ANOTHER WAVE MOVES MORE OR LESS ZONAL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN CONUS WHICH COULD TAP INTO THIS WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT; HOWEVER, THE ZONAL MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO SLOW
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CREATING UNFAVORABLE KINEMATICS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES LOWER BACK INTO THE 30S FOR TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE MORE INTERESTING AS MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING LARGE AREAS OF PV DIGGING DOWN INTO THE SW CONUS. THIS LOOKS
TO MANIFEST AS SEVERAL SYNOPTIC SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE ROCKIES. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY PRODUCING
LEEWARD TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK STARTING EARLY DEC 24.
THESE ARE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INITIATING WIDE AREAS OF STRATIFORM RAINFALL
ACROSS THE OZARKS. ADDITIONAL SUPPORT COMES FROM A DIGGING SYNOPTIC
TROUGH WHICH DEEPENS THE SURFACE LOW. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAY
KICK THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE WAVE FURTHER EAST CONCENTRATING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SOUTH OF I-70 GRADUALLY EXPANDING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL MO FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35 THROUGH
CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES STICK AROUND THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING
AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION. ANOTHER DEEP DIGGING SYNOPTIC LOW
LOOKS TO TRAVEL HOT ON THE HEELS OF THE CHRISTMAS EVE WAVE BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY.
GUIDANCE TRIES TO SNEAK SOME INSTABILITY INTO WEST CENTRAL MO
TEMPTING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM, BUT IT IS MUCH
TOO FAR OUT TO FULLY INVEST IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. IN GENERAL,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
LOOKS RATHER GREY AND GLOOMY WITH ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN CHANCES
THROUGHOUT. QPF SHOWS ABOUT 0.1-0.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THAT 4 DAY PERIOD. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW MULTIPLE WAVES EJECTING OUT OF
THE ALEUTIAN LOW RIDING AROUND THE PACIFIC HIGH AND RACING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR CONUS. THIS KEEPS THE ACTIVE WAVE PATTERN AROUND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE CALENDAR YEAR AND WITH INTERMITTENT
RAIN CHANCES THROUGHOUT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL (THUS ABOVE FREEZING) CURTAILING CHANCES FOR
MOST ALL FROZEN PRECIPITATION TYPES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL NUDGE EASTWARD
LEADING TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THE
LIGHT FLOW WILL ALLOW THE STRATUS TO LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI EAST OF THE TAF SITES INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. HAVE MARGINALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS IN
TAF LOCATIONS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.
EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PESEL
AVIATION...BT
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