472  
FXUS63 KSGF 240853  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
353 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019  
 
A FAIRLY STATIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE  
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST  
AND EASTERN CONUS WITH TROUGHING OVER THE WEST. A SFC FRONT  
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NEB TO WEST TX WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THE  
FRONT OFF TO THE WEST. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT A BIT  
TO THE EAST TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AGAIN  
FAVORING CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT. MODERATE-STRONG AFTERNOON  
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES 2000-3000 J/KG SUPPORT  
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THAT MAY AFFECT SOME OF OUR  
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY AND TONIGHT.  
INSTABILITY WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL  
HEATING. CAM'S VARY ON THE DEGREE OF THE EASTERN PUSH OF THE  
STORMS WITH THE 06Z HRRR SHOWING THE STRONGEST PUSH EAST WITH COLD  
POOL DEVELOPMENT PUSHING STORMS EAST. GIVEN THE VERTICAL  
SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT, SEVERE CHANCES EXIST FOR OUR  
WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING BEFORE INSTABILITY  
WEAKENS. MOSTLY LOOKING AT A WIND/HAIL RISK, BUT A SMALL TORNADO  
RISK EXISTS WHILE STRONGER INSTABILITY EXISTS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2019  
 
OVERVIEW: THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO  
PRODUCE STORMS RINGING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL PERSIST  
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. WE WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR STORMS AS  
IMPULSES RIDE AROUND THE RIDGE. FINALLY IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE  
RIDGE MAY BREAK DOWN BY MID WEEK WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME DRIER  
WEATHER LATE IN THE PERIOD.  
 
WEEKEND: A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TOP OF THE RIDGE  
THROUGH THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. THE TAIL END OF A  
FRONT WILL WORK IT'S WAY SOUTH INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHERN CWFA  
SATURDAY THEN STALL THERE SUNDAY WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
MONDAY: MAY BE THE QUIET DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH BUILDING MID LEVEL  
HEIGHTS AHEAD OF ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE ROCKIES. WARM  
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AND COULD SEE SOME UPPER 80S, BUT THE  
BLENDED FORECAST YIELDS SLIGHT COOLER MID 80S FOR HIGHS.  
 
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: A MORE SUBSTANTIAL UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM KNOCKS  
DOWN THE RIDGE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED. A GENERAL  
BROAD BRUSH LOOK INDICATES SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND  
THE BLENDED FORECAST RIGHT NOW FAVORS THE LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY  
NIGHT TIME FRAME BUT SOME PRECIP CHANCES COULD LINGER INTO  
WEDNESDAY AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE TIMING.  
 
LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: LOOKS DRIER/COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2019  
 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI, WITH CLEAR  
SKIES FOUND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI. CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM  
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS WAS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE  
WEST, WITH THIS CIRRUS LIKELY TO OVER OVERSPREAD THE AREA  
OVERNIGHT. QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY  
FRIDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 KNOTS AT TIMES FROM  
MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY  
STORMS WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS AND POSSIBLY INTO EASTERN KANSAS  
AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY CHANCES AT THE KJLN TAF  
SITE. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DSA  
LONG TERM...DSA  
AVIATION...RABERDING  
 
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