656
FXUS63 KSGF 050815
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS 60-80% CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAIN
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY (15-35% CHANCE) INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING,
WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING. 850MB TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO 12 TO 15C RANGE TODAY ALLOWING HIGHS TO WARM INTO
THE 60S TODAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY, RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AS RESULT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND BE GUSTY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING,
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AT TIMES.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A DRY AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE RAIN CHANCES, THOUGH A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON
TUESDAY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK TOWARDS THE AREA.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 60 ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
TO NEAR 70 ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR
70.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST COAST EARLY
THIS WEEK, THEN MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AND ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
LOOKING AT LONG WAVE CHARTS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE MOVING EAST
THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO
THE TROUGH AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LEAD TROUGH MOVES NORTH
THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE SECONDARY TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN WITH THE FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS AND STORM
CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT AT TIMES. WITH THE TROUGH
REMAINING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND AN UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE MUCH COOLER ON
THURSDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES COULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH RAIN
AND CLOUDS OCCURRING.
THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS THEN SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH
THE TROUGH AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE 50S ON FRIDAY AND THE 40S
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND. LOWS SATURDAY MORNING WILL COOL INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOWER 30S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S SUNDAY
MORNING.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND THERE WILL BE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LONG A FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM AND THERE
WILL BE SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS DIFFER ON THE EXACT
LOCATIONS AND AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT OVERALL KEEP THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE
AREA AND THE SHOWERS ANDS STORMS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD
BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN SOME RIVER VALLEYS ACROSS THE AREA
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS AT THE TAF SITES. SOME LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING ON MONDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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