678
FXUS63 KSGF 050730
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
230 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEK. HIGHS RETURN TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK.
- MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT:
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REINFORCE DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE REGION TODAY. SUBTLE INCREASES IN MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S TODAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE OZARK PLATEAU AND SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS
INTACT WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20
TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER, LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR FIRE WEATHER. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
TUESDAY-SUNDAY:
A GRADUAL WARM UP OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH
THE JET STREAM DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. THIS
WARM UP WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR EARLY OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. AT
THIS TIME, IT APPEARS WE SHOULD REMAIN A FEW DEGREES SHY OF ANY
RECORDS, BUT IT WILL BE WORTH MONITORING.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DRY WEATHER THIS
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS INCLUDES DAILY MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT, WITH LOCALIZED LOWER
VALUES. GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND MINIMAL RECENT RAINFALL,
FUELS CONTINUE TO DRY OUT AS WE PROGRESS INTO FALL. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER,
THOUGH WINDS REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR THIS WEEK.
AS THIS PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, WE MAY BEGIN TO SEE
AN INCREASED FIRE RISK AS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HINT AT AN INCREASE
IN WINDS. THIS IS PARTICULARLY A CONCERN WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY BE RATHER DRY. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS
STILL REMAINING UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXTENT OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS NEXT WEEK, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND AMPLE AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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