243
FXUS63 KSGF 022006
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
306 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EAST OF HIGHWAY 63, HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IS LOW.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS (SOME SEVERE) ARE EXPECTED
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A BRANSON TO ROLLA
MISSOURI LINE. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD WITH
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNINGS. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST TO FORM IF WINDS ARE LIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG/COMPACT UPPER LOW MOVING INTO IOWA
WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST US. A SURFACE LOW
WAS ALSO MOVING INTO IOWA WITH A TRAILING FRONT ACROSS EASTERN
KANSAS. CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST WITH TEMPS HEATING UP INTO THE 70S. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WERE ALLOWING FOR WIND GUSTS
OF 35-45MPH ACROSS THE AREA. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ML CAPE
AROUND 1000J/KG, LITTLE INHIBITION AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-40KTS.
THERE WERE A FEW SHOWERS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 BUT MOST LOCATIONS
WERE DRY.
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON: AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES FURTHER
NORTHEAST, WINDS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING.
UNTIL THIS EVENING, SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL
BE COMMON.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
IN HOWEVER FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS RATHER WEAK. LARGE SCALE
ASCENT WILL BE LACKING AND MORE FOCUSED NORTH OF THE REGION.
LATEST HRRR AND WARN ON FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS THAT LOCATIONS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 63 COULD SEE A FEW STORMS TRY TO BECOME
ORGANIZED THROUGH 6PM HOWEVER THAT WINDOW IS CLOSING QUICKLY.
IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP AND BECOME ORGANIZED THEN LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS, DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO COULD
OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE COVERAGE OF STORMS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 63 THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT THEN SORT OF STALLS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
FORCING LOOKS WEAK THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 30%
OVERNIGHT WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY. IT WILL BE A MILD
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 60S WITH STEADY SOUTH WINDS.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT: UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH THE FRONT LIFTING NORTH
OF OUR AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE AREA WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR BUT CAPPED THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOW 80S. BY EARLY EVENING, A LINE OF STORMS IS LIKELY TO BECOME
ORGANIZED FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND EASTERN KANSAS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND HREF DATA SUGGESTS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH ML
CAPE AROUND 1000J/KG. WIND SHEAR AGAIN LOOKS TO BE A POTENTIAL
LIMITING FACTOR TO SEVERE STORMS AS 0-6KM SHEAR COULD REMAIN IN
THE 30KT RANGE WITH 0-3KM SHEAR IN THE 20-30KT RANGE. HIGHER
SHEAR LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AND THIS IS DUE TO THE
SYSTEM REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA AND NOT AN OVERLY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET (850MB JET AT 40KTS).
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A LINE OF STORMS WILL MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST KANSAS COUNTIES AS EARLY AS 5-6PM FRIDAY HOWEVER MORE
LIKELY AFTER 6PM. THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL THEN SWEEP THROUGH
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THE REST OF THE EVENING, EXITING THE EASTERN
OZARKS BY 3-5AM SATURDAY. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SQUALL
LINE, DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN. WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE 0-3KM SHEAR VECTORS TOMORROW NIGHT AS ANY INCREASE
IN SPEEDS WOULD POTENTIALLY INCREASE THE QLCS/QUICK SPIN UP
TORNADO THREAT. ANY SURGES OF THE LINE TO THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE
A CONCERN FOR BRIEF TORNADOES. LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF
A BRANSON TO ROLLA LINE REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW
NIGHT.
RAINFALL FRIDAY NIGHT: IF THE LINE OF STORM REMAINS PROGRESSIVE
IN NATURE/QUICK THEN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 0.5 TO
1 INCH RANGE (LATEST HREF MEAN). THERE ARE A CAMS SHOWING
POCKETS OF 2-3 INCHES AND THIS COULD OCCUR IF THE LINE SLOWS
DOWN OR STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS
LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL STAY SOUTHEAST OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
MUCH COOLER TEMPS THIS WEEKEND: A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. LATEST NBM
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A 30-50% (LOW TO MODERATE) CHANCE OF
TEMPS DROPPING BELOW 36 DEGREES BOTH THOSE MORNINGS THEREFORE WE
WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FROST FORMATION IF WINDS ARE LIGHT
ENOUGH. THESE LOW PROBS SUGGEST THAT A HARD FREEZE IS UNLIKELY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT THU APR 2 2026
3-4KFT CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT THE
SITES WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS EVENING. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS REMAINS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON WITH FREQUENT 30-35KT GUSTS. WINDS WILL
THEN DECREASE THIS EVENING AND TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT THE SITES FRIDAY MORNING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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