918
FXUS63 KSGF 191124
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
524 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH SOME RECORDS
APPROACHED (SEE CLIMATE SECTION).
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM TODAY AS A WARM
AND VERY DRY AIR MASS COMBINES WITH GUSTY WINDS TO CREATE
CONDITIONS CAPABLE OF QUICKLY SPREADING FIRES.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCE TRENDS ARE DECREASING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY (15-25% CHANCES, DOWN FROM 30-50%).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A LOOK A SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOWED
GENERALLY LIGHT, 5 TO 10 MPH, SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH A WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE LOW MOVING
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS. A RATHER DRY AIRMASS MOVED INTO THE
REGION YESTERDAY HAS SEE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MODIFICATION FROM
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. MORNING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE SEE
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RECOVERY WITH RH VALUES IN THE 30 AND 40
PERCENTS. THERE WAS SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT WERE
MOVING OVER THE REGION AS WELL WHICH WAS HELPING TO KEEP
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH OF THE OZARKS
THROUGH TODAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY WITH
AFTERNOON GUST FROM 30 TO 40MPH EXPECTED. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR SIGNIFICANT TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL TODAY.
MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW. BOTTOM LINE IS, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TODAY FROM NOON THROUGH 8 PM.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP WARM AIR
ADVECTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S MIDDLE 70S.
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
SHOWER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN OZARKS THROUGH THIS MORNING,
THANKS TO SOME PREFRONTAL FORCING. THIS IS DESPITE A PRETTY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE. IF A SHOWER WERE TO OCCUR, 10-20% CHANCE, IT
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 5 IN THE EASTERN
OZARKS AND ANY AMOUNTS WOULDN'T BE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES TO
A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW WILL THEN
TRAVERSE THE OZARKS THIS EVENING, ALLOWING A COOLER AND DRY
AIRMASS TO MOVE IN TO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT AS A RESULT AND WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MIDDLE 50S ON FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
BY FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING, A SHALLOW UPPER
LEVEE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG 150KT PLUS UPPER LEVEL JET
WHICH WILL PROVIDE SOME FORCING OVER THE OZARKS. THIS MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF A MIX
OR RAIN AND/OR SNOW. CHANCES HAVE TRENDED DOWNWARD WITH THIS
HOWEVER OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS WITH CURRENT 15-25% CHANCES. IF
THIS DOES OCCUR, AGAIN AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT AND LITTLE TO NO
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD OCCUR.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SEASONABLE AIR WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOME NORTHWESTERLY,
THANKS TO A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THANKS TO THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, COOL AIR WILL KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
40S, MUCH MORE LIKE MIDDLE TO LATE FEBRUARY THAN TO DAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE 20S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
THE TEENS TO START THE WEEK ON MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK NEXT
WEEK AS A WARMING TREND OCCURS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE FLATTENS THE WESTERN RIDGE. THIS WARMING TREND WILL
NOT BE AS ROBUST AS THIS WEEK HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE FORECAST WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE. EXPECTATIONS THROUGH THE DAY ARE FOR
MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM 5 TO 10KTS TO INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 10 TO
15KTS AND GUSTS FROM 20-30KTS WILL OCCUR BY THE AFTERNOON AND
BECOME WESTERLY. ADDITIONALLY, A PERIOD THROUGH 15Z TO 17Z WILL
SEE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IMPACT THE REGION AS A LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES THROUGH THE OZARKS. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
MOISTURE RECOVERY OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN RATHER LIMITED WITH OVERNIGHT
RH VALUES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE 30S TO 40S ACROSS THE OZARKS. THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN EXCEPTIONALLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH
THE DAY WITH A DRY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION REINFORCING THE
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE AND QUICKLY DRYING OUT THE AREA AGAIN TO
10-20%. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE LOWEST RH'S WILL BE FOR AREAS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 (10-40% CHANCE). WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGES
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON INCREASING FROM 5 TO 10MPH TO 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED AND
GUSTS UP TO 25-40 MPH ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS COMBINATION OF DRY WEATHER, HIGH WINDS AND WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S WILL PRODUCE
THE RIGHT INGREDIENTS FOR FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS A RESULT, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NOON TO 8 PM
TODAY. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS THAT SOME AREAS MAY NOT SEE SUSTAINED
WINDS ABOVE 20 MPH, HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FREQUENT GUSTS AROUND OR
IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH WOULD COMPENSATE FOR
LOWER SUSTAINED WINDS.
THE AREA OF GREATEST CONFIDENCE REACHING AND EXCEEDING RED FLAG CRITERIA
IS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHERE AN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
SPC FIRE OUTLOOK IS IN PLACE. THIS IS THE RESULT OF THE EXPECTED
CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20-25 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES
RANGING FROM 10-20%.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 124 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 19:
KSGF: 75/2017
KJLN: 78/2017
KVIH: 76/2017
KUNO: 73/1981
RECORD WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 19:
KSGF: 52/1994
KJLN: 53/1943
KUNO: 54/1994
KVIH: 54/1994
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>082-088>097-101>105.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH
FIRE WEATHER...PRICE
CLIMATE...PRICE
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