559  
FXUS63 KSGF 211057  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
457 AM CST MON JAN 21 2019  
   
..12Z AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST MON JAN 21 2019  
 
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALED A STRONG  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH CALIFORNIA. MID LEVEL RIDING  
EXISTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WITH A DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE  
EASTERN US. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE  
GREAT LAKES WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES. WINDS  
ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE GENERALLY TURNED AROUND TO THE EAST-  
SOUTHEAST WITH LOCAL SGF TERRAIN ALREADY CAUSING GUSTS UP TO 25KTS  
AT SGF. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE TEENS IN THE EASTERN OZARKS  
TO THE LOWER TWENTIES IN THE JOPLIN/SPRINGFIELD AREA. SOME MID AND  
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING THROUGH THE AREA, WITH THE MOST  
DENSE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI.  
 
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL  
BECOME EVEN STRONGER AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO KANSAS. WINDS WILL  
TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY WITH  
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE HIGHER  
WINDS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR IN TWO SEPARATE TIMES, DURING THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH ANY MIXING FROM ABOVE, AND THEN AGAIN DURING  
THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT AS WHAT LOOKS LIKE A VERY  
STRONG 75KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET CRANKS UP IN EASTERN KS AND NUDGES  
INTO WESTERN MO. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE OZARKS MAY SEE SOME  
HIGHER GUSTS OVERNIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR  
THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA FROM NOON TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  
 
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL VARY ABOUT 10-15DEG FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY DROP SOME AFTER  
SUNSET THEN STEADY OFF OR PERHAPS RISE SOME OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE  
STRONG WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER. WHILE SOME PATCHY  
DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY ACROSS FAR SW MISSOURI  
OR SE KANSAS, MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL LATER TUESDAY  
MORNING. THE ONE PLACE TO WATCH WILL BE THE FAR EASTERN OZARKS OF  
DENT/SHANNON/OREGON COUNTIES, TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE THERE  
AND IF DRIZZLE DOES DEVELOP PRIOR TO TEMPS WARMING ABOVE FREEZING  
THEN THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF FREEZING DRIZZLE HOWEVER CHANCES  
LOOK VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST MON JAN 21 2019  
 
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY MORNING GENERALLY INDICATE QUITE A  
BIT OF MID LEVEL DRY AIR WITH MOST OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 850MB.  
THEREFORE DRIZZLE WOULD BE FAVORED DURING THE MORNING BEFORE  
ADDITIONAL SATURATION TAKES PLACE FOR RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A  
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING HOURS FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS SYSTEM IS ADVECTING IN  
COLDER TEMPS AND THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LIGHT WINTRY MIX AS THE  
PRECIP ENDS TUESDAY EVENING. THE NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE  
POST FRONTAL PRECIP. THERE WILL BE A DECENT DRY SLOT SO NOT SURE  
REALLY HOW MUCH QPF POST FRONTAL WE WILL GET. WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR THIS. OVERALL PRECIP AMOUNTS DONT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE,  
GENERALLY RANGING FROM 0.20 INCH IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA TO  
0.50IN IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.  
 
WEDNESDAY LOOKS COLD BUT DRY WITH 850MB COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKING  
PLACE. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH ARCTIC AIR QUICKLY DIVES SOUTH  
FROM THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY AND WILL BE ON OUR DOOR STEP BY LATE  
THURSDAY. IF ENOUGH LIFT IS PRESENT THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES  
OR LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY  
MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS, WITH WIND  
CHILL VALUES PUSHING BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AREA IN NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH  
CONTINUAL BOUTS OF COLD AIR AND WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH FOR  
THE WEEKEND AND EVEN BEYOND. THERE IS CURRENTLY 4-12 INCHES OF  
SNOW DEPTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN US THEREFORE ONLY SLIGHT MODERATION  
IN TEMPS WOULD OCCUR WITH ARCTIC AIR THAT MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS OUR  
AREA. CANT RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES BUT  
MODELS SEEM TO WAFFLE ON TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES.  
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL ARE TYPICALLY FAVORED  
IN THESE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERNS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 455 AM CST MON JAN 21 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH.  
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY AND  
INTO THE EVENING. GUSTS OVER 30KTS APPEAR LIKELY TODAY INTO  
TONIGHT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVENTUAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR  
IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR  
MOZ066>068-077>081-088>095-101>103.  
 
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR KSZ073-  
097-101.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD  
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD  
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MO Page
The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page