019
FXUS63 KSGF 011122
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES FROM
FROM LATE THIS MORNING INTO MONDAY MORNING. A FEW EMBEDDED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AT TIMES TODAY.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF MARCH. THERE IS A
RISK FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, FLOODING, AND
POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S LOWER 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S TO THE
MIDDLE 40S THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL ACROSS
NORTHERN ARKANSAS TODAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME WEAK MUCAPE WILL DEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44. LIFT
WILL START TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS
MORNING THEN ON TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS, AND A FEW STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST AS THE
LIFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE WEAK INSTABILITY SOME
ISOLATED RUMBLES FOR THUNDER WILL OCCUR AT TIMES, SOME SMALL
HAIL (PEA SIZE) AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30MPH COULD BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STORMS. THE BETTER COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WILL BE GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 AND THERE COULD BE
BREAKS IN THE RAIN AT TIMES. A WARM NOSE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA, AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS
SO MOSTLY RAIN WILL OCCUR. THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
ICE WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED TONIGHT AND MAY SEE PERIODS OF
DRIZZLE INTO MONDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AT TIMES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. INSTABILITY WILL WILL
MAINLY BE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BUT AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI. GUSTY WINDS WILL START TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE/UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE
MIDDLE 50S SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
WITH MORE RAINFALL OCCURRING NORTH. THE FRONT THAT WILL STALL
ACROSS ARKANSAS WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
50S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI MONDAY
AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY. LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND PERIOD OF DRIZZLE WILL
OCCUR. LOWS WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE 40S AND 50S ON MONDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO SET UP THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. THIS WILL SETUP A SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO THE REGION AT
TIMES. THIS WEEKEND INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS
BETWEEN THE ROUNDS OF RAIN. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S THIS
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S, DAYS WITH MORE RAINFALL
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE SLIGHT COOL.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE WARM FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT ON TUESDAY
MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF I-44. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MODELS STILL DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. THE FRONT COULD START TO MOVE IN AS EARLY
AS TUESDAY NIGHT AND AS LATE AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP FURTHER ENOUGH NORTH THERE
COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT A BREAK COULD OCCUR
ON THURSDAY UNTIL ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR AGAIN WITH THE SYSTEM AND
THERE COULD BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS AGAIN WITH
THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
EASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND WILL BE
GUSTY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
CONVECTION. TONIGHT IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AND PERIODS OF
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR AND WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN
NATURE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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