373
FXUS63 KSGF 271131
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
631 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF
I-44. 40-60% CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP BELOW 1 MILE.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY (HIGHEST
CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF I-44). MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND. MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING FOR LOCATIONS THAT SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWED MUCH OF THE OZARKS UNDER
STRATUS AND CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WAS OCCURRING
THANKS TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AS A STRONG UPPER LOW WAS
NEARLY ANCHORED ON THE WEST COAST. THE CONTINUED SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY THAT BROUGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF
THE REGION ALSO BROUGHT INCREASING PW VALUES WITH THE 00Z
SOUNDING AT 1.62IN, UP FROM 0.90 ON THE 12Z SOUNDING. SCATTERED
TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-44.
WITH THE INCREASED PW'S, THE RAINFALL FROM YESTERDAY AND WET
GROUND, WHERE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR, VISIBILITIES HAVE FALLEN TO A
MILE OR LESS FOR SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS THANKS IN PART TO THE
LIGHT WINDS AS WELL. AS CLOUD COVER MOVES OVER THE REGION,
VISIBILITIES IMPROVE BUT WILL MONITOR THROUGH SUNRISE FOR ANY
INCREASED COVERAGE AND DURATION OF DENSE FOG FOR ANY PRODUCTS.
SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW 40-60% CHANCE OF
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW ONE MILE MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-44 AND MOSTLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL MAKE LITTLE EASTWARD
PROGRESS TODAY, HOWEVER, UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL ROUND THE
BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS.
SHORT RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD. WITH THE AMPLE MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION, RAINFALL WILL BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT WITH SLOW MOVING
SHOWERS AND STORMS. OVERALL, WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPECT
0.1IN TO 0.25IN OF RAIN, VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 1 TO
1.5 INCHES COULD OCCUR FOR LOCALIZED AREAS SOUTHWEST OF
SPRINGFIELD. WITH VERY LOW SHEAR FORECAST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NON-SEVERE. LOCATIONS FROM SPRINGFIELD AND POINTS NORTH
AND EAST WILL SEE MUCH LESS RAINFALL CHANCES. DESPITE THE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE OZARKS TODAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
HELP BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE OZARKS FROM THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE BLOCK THE
PATTERN UNTIL IT BEGINS TO WEAKEN, FILL AND LIFT NORTH INTO FAR
WESTERN CANADA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS OCCURS, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS AND OZARKS, BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE AND PIECES OF ENERGY ROUGHING THE UPPER LOW WILL KEEP
SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL FOR THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEST WEEK. BY TUESDAY, AN UPPER LOW WILL DIVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERS IN THESE TYPE OF STAGNANT REGIMES CAN
FORECASTING TIMES AND DURATIONS OF RAINFALL DIFFICULT,
ESPECIALLY WITH REGARD TO GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT. AS A RESULT,
SHOWERS TEND TO BE MORE SCATTERED. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN A POSSIBILITY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
RAINFALL WHICH RESULTED IN MARGINAL RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE WEEK ARE FORECAST
BY THE NBM TO BE FROM 1 TO 1.25 INCHES OR LESS WITH AREAS OF THE
EASTERN OZARKS AND CENTRAL MISSOURI SEEING THE LEAST RAINS,
POSSIBLY LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IMPACTED AS A RESULT OF RAINFALL AND CLOUD
COVER BUT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON MOST
DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE OZARKS THIS MORNING AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE, TIMING
AND IMPACTS PRECLUDED ANYTHING MORE THAT MENTION IN PROB30
GROUPS BUT WILL BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED.
A LOW IFR OVERCAST STRATUS DECK SPREAD OVER THE AREA AND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENTS
TO MVFR OR VFR OCCUR. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
UNLESS A STORM IMPACTS A TERMINAL. WHERE SHOWERS OR STORMS DO
OCCUR, EXPECTED WORSE CONDITIONS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH
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