822
FXUS63 KSGF 181714
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1114 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING AND MONDAY NIGHT.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 11 AM
AND 4 PM TODAY, WITH SOME PATCHY AREAS APPROACHING RED FLAG
CRITERIA FOR LESS THAN 2 HOURS.
- ISOLATED NON-IMPACTFUL FLURRIES POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS BARELY BUDGED IN THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH
LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
CONUS. BASED ON MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS,
AN AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE AT THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE EXTENDS FROM
IL/IN DOWN TOWARD THE HOUSTON, TX AREA. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY,
ADDITIONAL SMALL COMPACT SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN DIVING THROUGH
THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL
CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, A BARRAGE OF COLD FRONTS IS STRETCHED
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE LATEST TO DROP THROUGH
CURRENTLY PLACED OVER NORTH TEXAS INTO EAST ARKANSAS, PUTTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OZARKS. THIS HAS USHERED IN
COLD AIR TO OUR AREA, WITH CURRENT TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS OR RIGHT AROUND 10 DEGREES. STATIONS ARE ALREADY
REPORTINGWIND CHILLS AROUND 0 F. NEVER FEAR, THOUGH:
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT COMPACT SHORTWAVE, THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN
FRONT RANGE STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS STARTING TO ADVANCE EASTWARD
AS A WARM FRONT.
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING WIND CHILLS AROUND ZERO THROUGH MONDAY:
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SAGGING THROUGH THE REGION, WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY RATHER WEAK. HOWEVER, LOW TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON
TRACK TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THEREFORE, EVEN A 5-10 MPH
WIND WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -5 TO 10 F THIS MORNING
BEFORE 8 AM. AFTER 8 AM, SOLAR INSOLATION AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL BEGIN WARMING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI TO THE LOWER 40S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT,
BRINGING BREEZIER WINDS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THE
WINDS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A TAD WARMER IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE TEENS, THE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND
OF -5 TO 10 F WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS TODAY:
THE WEATHER WILL BE FAST AND LOOSE TODAY WITH MULTIPLE
BOUNDARIES MOVING THROUGH IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. FIRSTLY, A
WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM
AND 3 PM. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH, SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SLIGHTLY, BUT
MOISTURE WILL BE LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND. THIS WILL KEEP MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 20-30%.
SINCE YESTERDAY, SHORT-RANGE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. THIS IS DUE TO A TREND
TOWARDS A LATER WARM FRONT PASSAGE AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER/FLURRY POTENTIAL RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY. THIS HAS ALSO LED TO A FORECAST WHERE THE
HIGHEST WINDS ARE WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHILE THE DRIEST AIR IS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 DURING THE PEAK DAYLIGHT HOURS. AS SUCH,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH ONLY A
LOW CHANCE (10-30%) OF ISOLATED POCKETS BRIEFLY REACHING RED
FLAG CRITERIA RIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
REACH CRITERIA WOULD ONLY BE THERE FOR LESS THAN 2 HOURS BEFORE
THE WARM FRONT EXITS THAT AREA AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
FILLS IN.
NON-IMPACTFUL FLURRIES POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY:
THE SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH MIMICS THE PATTERN SEEN YESTERDAY. AS SUCH, SOME ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH. THIS LOOKS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 6 AM AND 12 PM
THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT, THEN AGAIN BETWEEN 6 PM
AND MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING WITH THE COLD FRONT AS LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH EACH OF THESE BOUNDARIES. NO
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE MID-WEEK:
FOLLOWING THE BARRAGE OF SHORTWAVES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARIES,
ENSEMBLES THEN BRING THE PATH OF THE NEXT WAVES A BIT FURTHER
NORTH OF THE AREA, KEEPING THE JET STREAM ALSO NORTH OF OUR
AREA. THIS WILL INITIATE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND BRING IN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH LOWS IN
THE MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR
REFERENCE, NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE BETWEEN 40 AND
45 F.
PATTERN FAVORS POTENTIAL WEEKEND SYSTEM DESPITE HIGH UNCERTAINTY:
THE PAST FEW FORECAST PACKAGES, WE'VE BEEN MONITORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. REITERATING FROM BEFORE, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS
HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
CONTINUING TO HAVE A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER EAST-CENTRAL
CANADA WITH TROUGHING (ALBEIT FLATTER TROUGHING) ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EAST CONUS. THE CLUSTERS REVEAL GREAT DISPARITY
BETWEEN TIMING AND POSITIONING OF ANY SHORTWAVES, HOWEVER.
THEREFORE, NOT MUCH CAN BE SAID ON THE TIMING, LOCATION, AND
RESULTING PRECIPITATION OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OTHER THAN THAT THERE
IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN A PATTERN FAVORING A SYSTEM AT SOME
POINT LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOOK AT BOTH LREF
ENSEMBLES AND AI ENSEMBLES SEEM TO PLACE ANY QPF FOOTPRINT
ALONG THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEYS, WHICH
WOULD GENERALLY FAVOR A PRECIPITATION TYPE TRANSITION ZONE IN OR
AROUND OUR CWA. THAT SAID, AGAIN, EXACT POSITIONING AND TIMING
WILL BE KEY ON WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WE GET AND WHEN.
CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCE IS AROUND 20-40% FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
OTHER POTENTIAL TIMINGS BEING FRIDAY, SATURDAY, SATURDAY NIGHT
(10-15% CHANCE), OR EVEN PERHAPS LATER WITH THE NEWEST GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS TRENDING LATER THAN SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN JAN 18 2026
FOR THE 18Z TAFS, MID LEVEL (AROUND 10KFT) CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH WERE MOVING ACROSS
THE CWA, BUT SHOULD EXIT THE TAF SITES BY AROUND 19Z. WINDS WILL
START TO INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE CLOUD COVER OUT OF
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THEY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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