900
FXUS63 KSGF 211701
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1101 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S
AND WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
- WARMING TREND STARTS THIS WEEKEND TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE 8 TO
14 DAY FORECAST.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK
WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. EACH
ONE WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH TO KEEP WINTRY TYPE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW SEVERAL MAIN FEATURES. 1) AN
AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE ROCKIES. 2) LARGE AREA OF NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM ALBERTA
AND SASKATCHEWAN INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. 3) A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. 4) A STORM SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST. THERE IS AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WILL CONTINUE DIVING SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE AREA
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE QUITE COLD AS OF 1 AM THIS MORNING IN THE LOW
TO MID 20S. MOST OF THE AREA WAS CLEAR EXCEPT FOR A NARROW AREA
OF THE EASTERN OZARKS WHERE SOME STRATUS REMAINED.
TODAY: THE EMBEDDED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL NOT PRODUCE
ANY PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND WE SHOULD START TO SEE A RETURN OF A SOUTHERLY
WIND. WILL LIKELY REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S DESPITE THE EXPECTED
SUNSHINE.
TONIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST
COAST WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL
BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT THE UPPER RIDGE. LOWER IN THE ATMOSPHERE,
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM. LOWS WON'T BE
AS COLD AS THEY AREA DURING THE CURRENT OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT
STILL IN THE 20 TO 27 DEGREE RANGE.
SUNDAY: THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ALONG
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE. WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES
RESPOND BACK INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 156 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
STORM SYSTEM MONDAY INTO CHRISTMAS DAY: THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA AND THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY WEST TO
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LOW POPS(15-20%) WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY WITH FRONT OVER THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES WILL
START TO OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A SECONDARY WAVE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. BETTER
RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA(50-70%) WHERE WE COULD SEE 0.75" TO 1.25" OF RAIN WITH THIS
EVENT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL OF THE
PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN AS RAIN. THIS UPPER WAVE SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH ON CHRISTMAS DAY AND THERE SHOULD BE AN END TO THE RAIN
FROM WEST TO EAST.
THE UPPER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN QUITE ACTIVE WITH
CONTINUED WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC AT LEAST
INTO EARLY PORTIONS OF THE WEEK FOLLOWING CHRISTMAS.
TEMPERATURE SIGNALS IN THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK STILL SHOW A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND THERE IS A
SLIGHT SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS, GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...PEREZ
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