905
FXUS63 KSGF 152305
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
605 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
- SCATTERED STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON TUESDAY, MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY. DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH
COULD OCCUR WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS.
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
BETTER RAIN CHANCES (40-70%). LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS AND ONE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. A WARM AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER
THE AREA AS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S WILL OCCUR TODAY AND AGAIN ON
TUESDAY ACROSS THE AREA. SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOP ACROSS
THE EASTERN OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 TODAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL START TO
DISSIPATE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR SUNSET. SOME UNCAPPED
MUCAPE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING BUT
LIFT WILL BE MUCH MORE LIMITED THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
THEREFORE MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY, BUT THERE WILL BE A
LOW CHANCE (<15%) FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT.
AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA, BUT WIND SHEAR
IS WEAK SO THE STORMS ARE PULSE IN NATURE. THE STORM MOTION
WILL BE SLOW AND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 TO
1.75" ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF HEAVY DOWN
POURS WITH THE STORMS. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS THE MAIN RISK
WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE PEAK WILL BE NOW THROUGH
AROUND 5PM THEN THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY
WEAKEN/DECREASE WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING.
THE WARM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA AGAIN ON TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN WARMING INTO THE LOWER 90S. SCATTERED
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ON TUESDAY, MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES AND THE CAP WEAKENS. BRIEF DOWN POURS AND LOCALIZED
GUSTS WINDS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS MID WEEK
AND THE REGION LATE WEEK. WARMER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, BUT COVERAGE MAY BE LESS
THAN TODAY AND TOMORROW. A FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (40-70%) WILL OCCUR
WITH THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER
WEATHER WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO THE LOWER 80S WILL OCCUR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ALLOWING
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS TO OCCUR AT TIMES FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DECREASE IN
COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY COULD
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE KSGF AND KBBG SITES EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT
CHANCES AND COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL REDUCING
VISIBILITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. OUTSIDE ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW, WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2025
VALUES LISTED BELOW ARE FOR SITES WHERE THE FORECAST IS WITHIN
5 DEGREES OF A RECORD.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 16:
KSGF: 95/2019
KVIH: 96/1954
SEPTEMBER 17:
KSGF: 96/1953
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 15:
KSGF: 74/1936
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
CLIMATE...NELSON
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