494
FXUS63 KSGF 080830
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
330 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEK. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- DAILY HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20-35% RANGE HOWEVER
LIGHT WINDS (GUSTS LESS THAN 15 MPH) WILL KEEP THE FIRE
WEATHER THREAT LIMITED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGHER GUSTS UP
TO 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
A COOL FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE STATE TODAY BUT THERE
WON'T BE TOO MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, BUT QUICKLY CHANGE TO
SOUTHEASTERLY LATER TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S WITH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN MAKES AN APPEARANCE LATER THIS WEEKEND
AS THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH EASTERN LA/AR
AND COULD CLIP THE EASTERN OZARKS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
IT WON'T BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, AND AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 63
WILL LIKELY STAY DRY. RIGHT NOW WE HAVE A 30-50% CHANCE OF RAIN
FOR THE EASTERN OZARKS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN DISSIPATING
BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE WHERE
THE RAIN WILL FALL. THOUGH, MODELS ARE MOSTLY IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WILL
KEEP THE REMNANTS EAST AND PUSH IT TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS MEANS IT'LL BE MORE LIKELY FOR THE SYSTEM TO GO
FURTHER EAST THAN SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE WEST. FOR THIS REASON,
WE HAVE KEPT POPS AROUND 50% OR LESS.
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL
SIT IN THE MID 80S ONCE AGAIN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD AND STAY PUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THOUGH, LOOKING INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK, WE COULD
SEE A PATTERN CHANGE A WEEK FROM TODAY. THERE ARE STILL MODEL
DISCREPANCIES, BUT PERHAPS FALL MAKES AN APPEARANCE ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OCCUR
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...WISE
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