531
FXUS63 KSGF 030743
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
143 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
I-44 LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, HAIL UP TO THE SIZE QUARTERS
BEING THE MAIN RISK.
- SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT AND WILL MOVE EAST INTO EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS THE MAIN RISK.
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, MAINLY ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN WITH HAIL AND
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS THE MAIN RISKS.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND WIND THE MAIN RISKS.
- LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH THE THE ROUNDS OF RAIN
AND COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED FLOODING WHERE LOCATIONS RECEIVE
THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND WILL STALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BY THIS AFTERNOON. MUCAPE WILL INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE FRONT, ROUGHLY
NORTH OF I-44. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AND MOVE NORTHEAST, WITH UNCAPPED MUCAPE AROUND 1200 J/KG
DEVELOP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERALL STRONG BUT COULD
SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
QUARTERS THE MAIN RISK. COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD, BUT
WITH THE FRONT BEING STALLED SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP
MULTIPLE TIMES LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING.
A WARM AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE RAIN AND CLOUDS TO THE
UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTH OF THE FRONT.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNCAPPED MUCAPE WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT AROUND 1500 J/KG LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH. STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP TO THE EAST ALONG THE
FRONT AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65, LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN DURING LATE MORNING AS THE CAP INCREASES
SO THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SURFACE BASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL BE MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-44. MLCAPE
VALUES OF 500 TO 1200 J/KG WILL DEVELOP WITH THE STRONGEST TO
THE SOUTH. SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SOUTH OF HWY 60 AND
EAST OF HWY 65 WILL SEE SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY AND
COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER WITH HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS AND SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER BUT WILL START TO INCREASE SOME
IN THE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. THE FRONT
MAY BE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA BY THE TIME THIS OCCURS SO THE
TORNADO RISK IS LOW.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
THE FRONT WILL BECOME ORIENTATED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. THE RAIN WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON
THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK THROUGH THE AREA.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY AND
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. STORMS COULD DEVELOP AND
MOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST THE FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATRUDAY AND ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS BOTH ON FRIDAY THEN AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HIGHS IN THE 70S WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 60S) WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS WEEKEND THEN HIGHS IN THE 70S RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO THE
AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
AN IFR STRATUS DECK IS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT,
WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. THOUGH SOME FOG AND
IFR CEILINGS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT THE KBBG SITE DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT TODAY, AND OVERALL SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIODS. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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