053
FXUS63 KSGF 031010
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
510 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI.
- MORE WIDESPREAD IN NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. THE IS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. A
COOLER AIR MASS IS ALSO IN PLACE AS TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS STARTING TO MOVE OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ACROSS THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURE WILL NOT MUCH COOL
MUCH MORE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN LAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS WILL TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE
UPPER 30S WITH SOME MORE PROTECTED AREAS DROPPING INTO THE
MIDDLE 30S. SOME PATCHY FROST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EARLY THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS THE
AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. WINDS GUST UP TO 30 MPH
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 TODAY. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL USHER IN A WARMER AIR MASS TODAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI. A CAP WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AND NO STORMS WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA OF CAPPING.
BUT ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT THE CAP WILL WEAKEN AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND STRONG
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF THE FRONT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH OF THE AREA THE STORMS WOULD TOO. IT IS POSSIBLE THE
CAP WEAKENS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI INCLUDING THE LAKE OF THE
OZARK REGION. IF THIS OCCUR THE ISOLATED STORMS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY AND A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS THE LOW MOVES EAST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY WHICH MOST OF THE DAY BEING DRY.
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON MONDAY. GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON MONDAY AS GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH OCCUR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING ISSUE
AMONG THE MODELS ON THE FRONT. SOME START BRINGING IT IN AS
EARLY AS LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OTHER NOT UNTIL TUESDAY.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. MODEST MUCAPE WILL DEVELOP AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES WITH THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN RISKS. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA AREA EARLY AS MONDAY
EVENING, EXITING THE AREA TO THE SOUTH AS LATE AS TUESDAY
EVENING.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT AT TIMES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND OCCUR INTO TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCES FOR AN
ISOLATED STORM ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS EVENING, BUT THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE TAF SITES.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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