552
FXUS63 KSGF 052241
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT (20-40 PERCENT) ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
44.
- HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO 90 BY MID
WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (15-30%) WILL BE
POSSIBLE MONDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44, HOWEVER CHANCES
INCREASE (40-60%) BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN LOWER TEMPS AND DEWS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. AN
MCV WAS CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA INTO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI. ANOTHER AREA OF LIFT/VORTICITY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND WAS MOVING SOUTH. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS: THE VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ML CAPE AROUND 2000J/KG AND THE LIFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT REGION NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 54. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING A CU FIELD DEVELOP IN THAT
REGION. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING MUCH STORM
ORGANIZATION AND MOISTURE ABOVE 500MB IS LOWER THEREFORE
THINKING THE PULSE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW. THAT BEING
SAID, SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD CAUSE A FEW
STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE
ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY SLIDE SOUTH TOWARDS THE I-44
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WE THINK CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH FURTHER
OVERNIGHT HOWEVER A FEW CAMS SHOW AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
CONTINUING EVEN AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE MANY AREAS THAT
STAY DRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL FOR PATCHY
FOG TONIGHT HOWEVER GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES WE THINK
VIS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY ABOVE 1 MILE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
TEMPERATURES: THE TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED VORTS WILL BE SLOW TO
MOVE PAST THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEREFORE HIGH TEMPS WILL
MOST LIKELY STAY IN THE 80S. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, MID
LEVEL HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE AND 850MB TEMPS INCREASE THEREFORE
HIGHS SHOULD HEAT BACK UP CLOSER TO IF NOT JUST PAST 90 DEGREES.
RAIN CHANCES: WITH THE LOW REMAINING CLOSE TO THE AREA ON
MONDAY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ISOLATED AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 20
PERCENT, MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-44. MODELS VARY ON
AMOUNT OF STORMS THEREFORE MAY NEED TO SLOWLY BUMP UP POPS THERE
IF THE SIGNAL INCREASES. OTHERWISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOKS
MAINLY DRY AS THE LIFT MOVES EVEN FURTHER AWAY. WE DO GET INTO A
LITTLE MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LATE WEEK AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVES
OUR WAY FROM THE WEST - NORTHWEST. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
STRENGTHENING RIDGE OUT WEST. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AND THE WPC DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE DECREASES IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND AS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAST
THE RIDGE OUT WEST STRENGTHENS AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH IT
EXPANDS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS AT TIMES, VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (AROUND 30 PERCENT) OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COMING
CLOSE TO THE SGF SITE LATER THIS EVENING HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. THIS LOW CONFIDENCE ALSO
PERTAINS TO SOME MVFR VIS FOR PATCHY FOG AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10KTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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