113  
FXUS63 KSGF 200653  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
153 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SLIGHT TO MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 THIS MORNING WITH 60 MPH  
WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS ALSO  
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.  
 
- THERE REMAINS AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TORNADOES  
(POTENTIALLY A COUPLE THEM BEING STRONG), LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  
 
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH LATE  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2025  
 
TWO ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL BRING HAZARDS TO THE AREA IN THE  
SHORT TERM.  
 
ONGOING CONVECTION: PRIMARY HAZARD IS WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES OF  
RAIN WITH, LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES, AND  
ASSOCIATED FLOODING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLY IN  
SOME OF THE STORMS. THESE THREATS WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY WEST  
OF HIGHWAY 65 THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE  
AREA.  
 
ENHANCED SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING:  
 
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN SEEING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINEAR  
SEGMENTS ON RADAR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE WESTERN EXTENT  
OF THE RISK IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUEST DUE TO UNKNOWNS OF WHEN  
AND WHERE MORNING CONVECTION WILL KEEP INSTABILITY MORE LIMITED.  
GREATEST CONFIDENCE IS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE  
1,000-1,500 J/KG OF SBCAPE IS EXPECTED. THAT LEVEL OF  
INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE AS FAR WEST AS THE WESTERN MISSOURI  
BORDER, BUT THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR >1,000 J/KG (80% PER  
HREF) IS ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. WHAT ISN'T IN QUESTION IS  
THE MAGNITUDE AND PROFILE OF SHEAR. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR UP  
TO AROUND 60 KTS AND STRONGLY ARCING HODOGRAPHS WILL BE MORE  
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER WITH ALL HAZARD  
MODES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NW CWA (SE  
KANSAS AND WEST-CENTRAL MISSOURI) IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY BE LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE  
PROXIMITY TO THE DEEP UPPER SHORTWAVE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS  
OUTCOME IS LOWER.  
 
HAZARDS: AFTERNOON/EVENING HAZARDS ARE FOR GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL,  
70 MPH WINDS (MAYBE UP TO 80), AND TORNADOES. GIVEN SHEAR  
PROFILES, A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO WOULD BE POSSIBLE. MOST  
FAVORED CONDITIONS FOR STRONG TORNADOES WOULD BE IN CELLS THAT  
ARE MORE ISOLATED OR PERHAPS IN STRONGER BOWING SEGMENTS.  
HAZARDS WITH THE POTENTIAL LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS OVER THE NW IN  
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WOULD BE LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE  
OF HALF DOLLARS, WINDS TO 60 MPH AND POTENTIALLY TORNADOES.  
 
TIMING: DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS SHOULD  
START SW OF THE CWA AND PUSH INTO THE FAR SW AROUND 1-3PM. CAM  
GUIDANCE SHOWS TIMING NEAR HIGHWAY 65 AROUND 3PM-5PM AND HIGHWAY  
63 AROUND 5PM-7PM. TIMING FOR THE POTENTIAL NW CWA LOW-TOPPED  
SUPERCELLS WOULD BE ROUGHLY FROM 4PM-8PM.  
 
IN ADDITION TO THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS, NON-THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS  
UP TO 45 MPH (POSSIBLY HIGHER) ARE EXPECTED TODAY.  
 
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR  
FLOODING GIVEN SOIL SATURATION ACROSS THE AREA, BUT THEY WILL BE  
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED TRAINING POTENTIAL, THUS  
LIMITING THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2025  
 
ENSEMBLE DATA CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING  
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES INTO AND THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE  
WEST/SOUTHWEST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. NBM RAINFALL  
PROBS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND  
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHERE THIS RAINFALL SETS UP GIVEN THE  
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2025  
 
ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT  
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY  
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE A LINE OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
 
STRONG NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LLWS.  
 
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING  
SEVERE STORMS.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.  
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-  
077>083-088>098-101>106.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TITUS  
LONG TERM...TITUS  
AVIATION...TITUS  
 
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