254
FXUS63 KSGF 021139
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
539 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND COULD BE PATCHY AT TIMES INTO THIS EVENING.
- A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL THE MAIN RISK ON TUESDAY
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF MARCH. THERE IS A
RISK FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS. THERE WILL BE THE FOR
ISOLATED FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER MID-WEEK AND AGAIN LATE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. CLOUD ICE IS DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT THIS
MID MORNING, SO THE RAIN WILL BECOME TO BE MORE DRIZZLE WHICH
WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES AT TIMES THIS MORNING. THE COVERAGE
IN DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
BUT COULD BE SOME POCKETS AT TIMES.
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL OVER OR
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK MUCAPE
WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE A CAP IN PLACE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI MONDAY EVENING BUT WILL WEAKEN ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI, ALLOWING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT. SOME SMALL HAIL
(PEA SIZE) WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS, BUT NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AS
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE.
TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON MUCAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
INCREASE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. THERE COULD A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF HIGHWAY 54 WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS THE
MAIN RISK TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN DRY ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TO
THE LOWER 60S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI TODAY AS THE
FRONT STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEAST LATE TODAY. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER
SLIGHTLY ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT, THE FASTER SOLUTIONS
HAVE THE FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS HAVE THE
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING AND ACROSS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A CAP WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WILL WEAKEN AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE WHERE BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THE RISK
WOULD MAINLY BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WITH THE FASTER SOLUTIONS AND
FURTHER TO THE WEST WITH THE FAST SOLUTIONS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR LATE WEEK AS HIGHS WARM
INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
LATE WEEK AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
RAIN COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. SLIGHT COOLER CONDITIONS WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
IFR CEILINGS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
THOUGH, SOME MVFR CEILINGS WILL START TO RETURN ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE LONG THE FRONT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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