554
FXUS63 KSGF 060729
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
129 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- PROBABILITIES FAVOR ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN THE FEB 12TH TO 18TH PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HUDSON BAY NORTH OF
ONTARIO CANADA. WEST OF THIS, A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDED FROM MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WELL INTO
BRITISH COLUMBIA, CANADA. WEST OF THE RIDGE, AND UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WAS OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WAS OCCURRING EAST OF THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTERNATIONAL FALLS, MN 300MB WIND
SPEEDS WERE 135KTS AT 00Z ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK DIVING
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, WE'VE HAD A WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH AND
TEMPERATURES HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN OR STEADIED THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. WHILE OUR WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED DURING THE EVENING, WE DO
HAVE SOME 30-40KTS A FEW THOUSAND FEET UP.
TODAY: FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING SOME WIND GUSTS SHOULD
START TO OCCUR BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS WE BEGIN TO MIX DOWN
THOSE HIGHER WINDS AGAIN WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE.
A COLD FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE THROUGH FROM MID MORNING THROUGH
AROUND MIDDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND REMAINING
GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTH
WHICH WILL HAVE THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH FIRST TO NEAR 60 IN THE
SOUTH.
TONIGHT: WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY AROUND 6 PM AS WE LOSE THE
MIXING AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT. A COOLER AIR MASS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES TO MORE
SEASONAL READINGS OVERNIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 20S OUT EAST TO
THE MID TO UPPER 20S OUT WEST. SOME EASTERN VALLEYS MAY DIP INTO
THE TEENS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA:
STARTING SATURDAY, WE'LL SEE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST
INTO THE AREA WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL COINCIDE WITH THIS AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
TEMPERATURES ARE AVERAGING 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 10-12
DEGREES BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SPC UPPER
LEVEL CLIMATOLOGY FOR 850MB TEMPERATURES THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD
PUT THESE VALUES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY
COMPARING 850MB AND 925MB TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST THAT MID 60S TO LOW 70S WOULD FIT THE EXPECTED GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE READINGS AND THAT MATCHES WHAT THE NBM IS PUTTING OUT
FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY. NBM IS SHOWING A 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE RANGE
FROM 67 TO 73 DEGREES AND A FORECAST OF 71 FOR SGF ON MONDAY
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE.
NEXT RAIN CHANCES: GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH THE ENS HAVING THE CLOSED LOW ON A SLOWER PACE TO TRACK
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE LOWER
MISSSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHILE THE GEFS/GEPS ARE QUICKER. PREFERRING
THE SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE UPPER ENERGY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT WE DO HAVE A SURFACE
FRONT THAT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH
WOULD BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
WITH MORE CLOUD COVER ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MODAY ACROSS THE AREA, BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE 60S.
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
WILL MOVE IN WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 50S (STILL ABOVE
NORMAL).
DAYS 8 TO 14 TEMPERATURES: GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW
TEMPERATURE ANOMOLIES OF 6 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL(SIX-SEVEN).
SO IT LOOKS LIKE OUR WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PERSIST INTO WEEK 2.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD
THROUGH THE 06Z FORECAST PERIOD. OVERNIGHT, A LOW LEVEL JET
STREAK WILL CAUSE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWER 2000
FEET WITH DECOUPLED SURFACE WINDS. BY MID MORNING, WE SHOULD
START TO MIX SOME OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS TO THE SURFACE AND
WE'LL GET SOME NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH, LOSING THE GUSTS BY 00Z AS DECOUPLING ONCE AGAIN
OCCURS AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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