735
FXUS63 KSGF 061625
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1125 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY. WARMING TREND INCOMING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (30-60%) FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE AT THIS TIME.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (40-70%) RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. STORMS COULD BE SEVERE, CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IS SHOWING A COUPLE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OVER THE AREA. THE STATE IS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO
SURFACE FRONTS THIS MORNING. THERE'S A FRONT DRAPED OVER
NORTHERN MO AND AND FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE MO/AR BORDER. RAIN
HAS NEARLY ENDED OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NORTHEAST. STRATIFORM CLOUDS ARE COVERING MOST OF THE
STATE AND WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT TODAY TO
BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL
STAY JUST UNDER 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS MOSTLY CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT AND WINDS BECOME LIGHT. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL TAKE
OVER AND BRING US DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING US A
WIND SHIFT AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THURSDAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL SIT IN THE MID 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY AND BRINGS US
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. RIGHT NOW, SPC HAS MOST OF THE AREA IN A GENERAL THUNDER
OUTLOOK. THAT MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ONE REASON WHY WE MAY NOT SEE SEVERE
WEATHER ON FRIDAY IS BECAUSE OF HOW WEAK OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS WILL BE. OUR WINDS WON'T EVEN ENTIRELY TURN OUT OF THE
NORTH BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA. THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE RATHER WEAK AND DOESN'T PERSIST FOR
LONG AS WE GET BACK INTO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SATURDAY AND
TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY WARMER THAN FRIDAY'S WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S. THERE JUST MAY NOT BE ENOUGH LIFT TO PRODUCE SEVERE
WEATHER FROM THIS FRONT, BUT WE'LL WELCOME THE RAIN.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY
EVENING AND WILL BRING US OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
TIMING WILL BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND, BUT
STORMS MAY INITIATE SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING HOURS. WE ARE NOT YET OUTLOOKED BY SPC FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AT THIS TIME. THOUGH, THE MACHINE LEARNING PRODUCTS
(CIPS/CSU) ARE STILL HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WEST OF HWY 65. MORE DETAILS TO COME OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGHS STAY IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY
LOOKING MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY,
WITH SOME BREAKS, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MISSOURI. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS WITH A SWITCH
TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LIKELY THURSDAY MORNING. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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