124
FXUS63 KSGF 230741
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
241 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2021
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2021
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AND A VEERING 850MB JET.
THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE/MOISTURE DEPTH HAS BEEN ADEQUATE FOR
SHOWERS BUT NOT ALL THAT GREAT OVERALL AND RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN UT AND AZ
WILL SHIFT EAST TO WESTERN KS/WESTERN OK/NORTH TX BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WE WILL SEE INCREASED LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TODAY. LOW LEVEL/850MB
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MO
(ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-44) THIS EVENING WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME SMALL
SCALE RAIN AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES (AND LOCALLY HIGHER) WITH
LESSER GENERAL AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. OVERALL BROAD BRUSH MARGINAL
WPC EXCESSIVE RAIN RISK STILL LOOKS GOOD, BUT COULD SEE A LOCALLY
HIGHER RISK IN THE NORTHERN/WESTERN CWFA TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2021
SATURDAY: SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDS. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT'S RAIN.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH A WARMING TREND
STILL EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWFA
ON MONDAY. SOME DAYTIME GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. STILL
HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S IN MOST OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: STILL A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE STRONG/SEVERE TSTM
PERIOD WITH GUIDANCE IN BROAD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOVING A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. 00Z GUIDANCE STILL
DIFFERS ON EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE FASTER THAN MOST
GUIDANCE WHILE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE (ECMWF, CANADIAN/GDPS,
UKMET) ARE SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED OFF WITH THE UPPER LOW. LATE
TUESDAY (GFS) AND/OR WEDNESDAY (OTHER GUIDANCE) WILL BE THE
FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AS CONVECTION BREAKS OUT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS/WEAKENING CAP AND AN ALREADY ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FETCH OFF THE WESTERN GULF. VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
IN PLACE BUT GUIDANCE STILL VARIES ON THIS DEPENDING ON SYSTEM
EVOLUTION. HIGH MOISTURE/PWATS MAY ALSO RESULT IN AN EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
WILL MONITOR FORECAST EVOLUTION AND TIMING TRENDS.
THURSDAY: LOOKS COOLER/CLOUDY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE. LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES BY
THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU APR 22 2021
RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS CONTINUES, CEILINGS
WILL SLOWLY FALL FROM VFR TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS
PRECIPITATION TAPPERS OFF. ONCE THE RAIN SLOWS, CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER TO MVFR AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE IN THE AFTERNOON. WHERE STORM OCCUR, VISIBILITIES
MAY BECOME IFR OTHERWISE EXPECTED VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN
RAIN. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...HATCH
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