793
FXUS63 KSGF 131856
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM AND DRY AIR MASS REMAIN IN PLACE.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH WITH AFTERNOON
MINIMAL HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20-35% RANGE.
- LIGHT RAIN WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT, A TRACE TO AROUND
0.10".
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WITH
COLDER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING WITH
SINGLE DIGIT WINDS CHILLS EXPECTED SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES BOTH DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE AREA
ACROSS IOWA/MINNESOTA AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH A WARM AND DRY AIR MASS
REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THERE AREA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH,
BUT MILD CONDITIONS FOR MID JANUARY ARE STILL OCCURRING EVEN
WITH THE CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN UPPER 50S TO THE
LOWER 60S. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR MASS IS
ALSO IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE
TO DROP TO AROUND 20% ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND TO
AROUND 35% ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WILL
STILL OCCUR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL START TO WEAKEN BY
EARLY THIS EVENING.
THE COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BUT AS THE TROUGH STARTS TO DIG SOUTH THIS
EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. STRONG FORCING WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. A DRY AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT. EVEN WITH THE
DRIER AIR, THE STRONG FORCING WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF SPRINKLES
TO LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
FROM A TRACE TO AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL MO HAVE THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR 0.10" OF RAINFALL WITH
FAR SOUTHWESTERN MO AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KS GETTING ONLY A
FEW SPRINKLES. THE COLDER AIR MASS WILL LINGER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN TO
TO OCCUR AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AFTER THE RAIN MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A
COLDER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN MAY DROP THROUGH THE 30S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
A COLDER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS LOWS DROP
INTO THE TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS
OCCURRING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
THE LOWER 40S. LIGHTER WINDS WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY AS HIGHS WARM INTO
THE 40S. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN, WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35 MPH OCCURRING AGAIN ON FRIDAY. A DRY AIR MASS WILL
ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE EVEN WITH THE COOLER CONDITIONS AND COULD
LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLDER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FOR THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES SOUTH INTO THE
AREA. HIGHS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER
20S SATURDAY MORNING THEN INTO THE TEENS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
MORNINGS. WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL OCCUR EACH
MORNING THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES UP TO
AROUND 20KT AT TIMES. WIND WILL WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH THE FRONT BUT
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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