914
FXUS63 KSGF 261140
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 30-50% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-44 THIS
AFTERNOON. STORMS COULD START AS EARLY AS 12 PM, AND LAST AS
LATE AS 10PM, WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME BEING 3-8 PM.
- MARGINAL (1 OF 5) TO SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60-70 MPH AS THE MAIN THREAT.
QUARTER-SIZED HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SLIGHT RISK IS CONFINED
TO SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65.
- TEMPERATURES CLIMB THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURE AROUND 100F AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105F
POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
AS OF 2 AM, A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS LOCATED RIGHT OVER
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AS NOTED IN MID-LEVEL SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG
WITH MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ENSHROUDING THE REGION. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS,
WITH RIDGING TO THE WEST AND MODEST TROUGHING TO THE EAST. SOME
VERY LIGHT RADAR ECHOES HAVE BEGUN SHOWING UP AHEAD OF THIS
WAVE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. BENEATH THE WAVE--AT THE SURFACE--A
COLD FRONT IS IN PLACE ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR, JUST SOUTH OF
JOPLIN AND JUST NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD. SOME VERY PATCHY LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE BEEN INTERMITTENTLY REPORTED ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY WIDESPREAD
AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE SINCE THE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES RATHER MILD WITH SPRINGFIELD STILL AROUND 80 F AND
OTHER AREAS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
15-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING:
CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A WEAKENING CAP AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE--EAST OF HIGHWAY 65--WHERE THE CURRENT
LIGHT RADAR ECHOES ARE POPPING UP. EARLIER CAMS HIGHLIGHTED
THIS AREA FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. CURIOUSLY, RAP AND OTHER MODEL
MEMBERS BREAK OUT CONVECTION DESPITE AT LEAST -25 J/KG OF
INHIBITION THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THAT
CAP HOLDS OUT OR NOT. IF SUFFICIENT EROSION OF THE CAP OCCURS,
AROUND 2000 J/KG MUCAPE IS PRESENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS WOULD BE ISOLATED AND
ON THE MARGINAL SIDE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH SINCE SHEAR
WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE (AROUND 25 KTS) AND THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION WILL BE IN PLACE. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WOULD BE THE
MORE PREVALENT HAZARD GIVEN PWATS AT AROUND 1.8 INCHES.
ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT FORM WOULD ONLY LAST UNTIL 8-10 AM
ONCE DAYTIME MIXING COMMENCES.
30-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON:
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS STILL PRETTY MESSY FOR A FEW REASONS. FIRSTLY,
THE EVOLUTION OF ANY MORNING STORMS COULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON
STORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME CAMS PRODUCE A FEW
CLUSTERS OUT OF THE ACTIVITY, WHICH SEEMS TO BE A MORE
CONDITIONAL SCENARIO GIVEN THE CAPPING DESCRIBED ABOVE.
NEVERTHELESS, IF THIS DOES OCCUR, THIS COULD BRING SOME
STABILIZATION TO THE ATMOSPHERE IN OUR CWA, LIMITING STORM
POTENTIAL IN THE AFTERNOON. SECONDLY, SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS ALSO
A QUESTION BASED ON HOW A REMNANT MCV IN THE OK/TX PANHANDLE
REGION EVOLVES (MORE ON THAT IN A MOMENT).
THE MAIN CERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS THE COLD FRONT HANGING
AROUND THE I-44 CORRIDOR. THIS FRONT WILL ONLY MOVE A BIT DURING
THE DAY, FOCUSING THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IGNITING ALONG THE BOUNDARY, WHICH WOULD BE
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR AFTER 12 PM THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS BASE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY, ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL CARRY A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60-70 MPH AS BOTH MICROBURST AND OZARKS
PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COMPOSITES ARE MEDIUM TO HIGH,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA CONFINED TO SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
60 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. HAIL IS GENERALLY SECONDARY HAZARD
WITH THESE STORM TYPES, BUT WITH RELATIVELY STRAIGHT 25-30 KT
BULK SHEAR PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND
STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW, PAIRED WITH STRONG SUB-HGZ CAPE, IT
WOULDN'T BE FARFETCHED TO SEE A FEW HAILSTONES UP TO QUARTER-
SIZED IN ANY STRONGER STORMS.
THE ALTERNATE SCENARIOS COME INTO PLAY BASED ON HOW THE MCV OVER
THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION EVOLVES TODAY. HREF/REFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS PLACE THIS MCV SOMEWHERE OVER THE MOKSAROK REGION, WHICH
WOULD INTRODUCE BETTER LIFT AND SHEAR, ULTIMATELY AIDING IN
GREATER STORM COVERAGE AND SEVERE HAZARD POTENTIAL. THE RAP,
HOWEVER, KEEPS THE MCV WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY, WHICH WOULD KEEP BETTER LIFT AND SHEAR AWAY FROM OUR
AREA. WHILE HREF/REFS ENSEMBLE MEAN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE
AROUND 30 KTS, EACH MEMBER VARIES ON THE POSITION OF THE MCV,
WHICH MATHEMATICALLY REDUCES THE SHEAR VALUES. THOSE MEMBERS
THAT DEPICT THE MCV NEAR OUR AREA (75TH-90TH PERCENTILE MEMBERS) PRODUCE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS. THIS LEVEL OF SHEAR WOULD
INTRODUCE A MINI SUPERCELL THREAT, UPPING THE HAIL THREAT TO
HALF DOLLARS TO GOLF BALLS ALONG WITH THE WIND THREAT. THIS IS A
MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT, BUT IS CERTAINLY A SCENARIO WE WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON BASED ON HOW THE MCV TRACKS.
NO MATTER THE SCENARIO, THE WINDOW FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO BEFORE 8 PM AS THE FRONT CLEARS ALMOST
ALL OF OUR AREA BY 7-9 PM.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO END THE WORK WEEK:
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE AUGUST STANDARDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S TOWARD CENTRAL MO, TO THE LOWER 90S IN
THE FAR SW MO AND SE KS CORNERS. LOWS WILL ALSO BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
ABNORMAL TEMPERATURES MAKE A COMEBACK FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER:
COME SATURDAY, THOUGH, THE RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BUILDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA,
REVITALIZING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SUBSEQUENT COMPRESSIONAL AND
ADVECTION HEATING. ACCORDING TO NAEFS AND ECMWF ESATS, 99.5TH
PERCENTILE 700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX AT VALUES OF
0.8-0.9. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 90S, AND EVEN NEAR
100 F, BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO RISE TO
95-105 F, WITH THE GREATEST VALUES TOWARD THE MISSOURI-ARKANSAS
BORDER. WHILE THIS LEVEL OF HEAT IS NOT CRAZY FOR WHAT WE'VE
ALREADY EXPERIENCED THIS AUGUST, IT IS ABNORMAL FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER (AS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE ESATS AND EFI). THE CPC HEAT
INDEX CLIMATOLOGY/FORECAST SHOWS 90TH PERCENTILE HEAT INDEX
VALUES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER AT 95-100 F, WITH A 70-90% CHANCE TO
EXCEED THAT RANGE SOMETIME IN EARLY SEPTEMBER. SO, SINCE 90TH
PERCENTILE HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER ARE BETWEEN
95-100 F, A FORECAST OF 100-105 IS CERTAINLY CLOSER TO THE
95TH-99TH PERCENTILE OF HEAT FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.
WITH RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE, RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST TO BE MINIMAL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, GLOBAL
MODELS AND NBM RAIN CHANCES ARE QUITE PERSISTENT WITHIN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA, SO IT WOULD NOT BE
TOO OUT OF PLACE TO SEE A FEW RAIN CHANCES SNEAK INTO THE AREA
AT SOME POINTS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE TAF SITES IS
BRINGING CALM AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE 3-7 KT WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH
THE PERIOD, BRINGING NORTH-NORTHEAST 8-12 KT WINDS TO SGF AND
JLN. THE FRONT MAY ALSO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR SGF (20-30% CHANCE) AND BBG (40-50% CHANCE) BETWEEN 18-00Z.
THE HIGHER CHANCES AT BBG ARE REFLECTED BY THE TEMPO IN THE
TAFS. THESE STORMS COULD CARRY POTENTIAL HAZARDS OF BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, MICROBURSTS WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS UP TO 40-50 KTS,
SMALL HAIL, AND LIGHTNING.
AFTER 00Z, WINDS WILL CALM AGAIN TO 3-7 KTS, BUT WITH A DOMINANT
DIRECTION OUT OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE FRONT STAYS TO THE
SOUTH.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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