289
FXUS63 KSGF 020803
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
303 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CLOUDS CLEARING THIS MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S EXPECTED
TODAY. FOG POTENTIAL EARLY MONDAY THAT MAY IMPACT THE MORNING
COMMUTE.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATER NEXT WEEK. EXTREME HEAT POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENT MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE
HAS NOW PUSHED INTO EASTERN MISSOURI. LINGERING CLOUD COVER IS
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SGF CWA, BUT WILL
CLEAR OUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. MOST OF THE AREA IS
CURRENTLY CLOUD-FREE, AND WE'LL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY APART
FROM SOME FAIR-WEATHER CUMULUS. THOUGH FLOW WILL STILL BE NORTHERLY,
CAA WILL BE QUITE WEAK, AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PAIRED WITH RISING
500MB HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW US TO WARM QUITE A BIT MORE THAN YESTERDAY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
AND LAND RIGHT AROUND 80 IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER WILL TAKE A
LITTLE LONGER TO MOVE OUT. THOSE NNW WINDS WILL TOP OUT AROUND 10-15
MPH.
TONIGHT, SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DIE DOWN. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID- TO UPPER-60S, THIS WILL BE A PERFECT RECIPE FOR FOG. THE HREF
IS CURRENTLY INDICATING AN UP TO 50% CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY TO
DROP BELOW A HALF MILE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 A.M., GENERALLY EAST OF
HWY 13 AND NORTH OF HWY 60. SEVERAL OTHER MODELS ARE ALSO
OUTPUTTING THIS SIGNAL. AT THIS LEAD TIME, ONLY TWO MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TO RESULT IN VISIBILITIES
LOWER THAN 0.25 MILES. THIS IS RESULTING IN A RELATIVELY LOW
PROBABILISTIC SIGNAL, AND THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONSENSUS FOR A
DFA TO BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, AS THE SHORT TERM MODELS
BEGIN TO RESOLVE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME
MODELING CYCLE, FUTURE FORECASTS WILL BE MORE CERTAIN REGARDING
THE NECESSITY FOR FOG HEADLINES. AT THIS TIME, IT IS SAFE TO SAY
THAT SOME IN THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE FOG, BUT IT STILL A BIT
UNCERTAIN HOW DENSE OR WIDESPREAD IT MAY BE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE LOW- TO MID-60S.
FLOW ON MONDAY BEGINS TO SLOWLY REGAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES BY. CLEAR SKIES AND A HINT OF WAA WILL
HELP US CONTINUE ON THE WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS BEGINNING TO REACH
INTO THE LOWER 90S OUT EAST WITH MID- TO UPPER-80S ELSEWHERE.
ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT MONDAY WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
SYNOPTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES BUILDING IN TUESDAY, AND A SURFACE
LOW TO THE WEST HELPS TO ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES, RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER-90S HERE WITH TEMPS
TOPPING OUT CLOSER TO 90 ELSEWHERE. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER STILL AHEAD OF TROUGHING PUSHING RAIN THROUGH SOMO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO LATE WEEK. THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH, WHICH WILL
BRING THE FIRST ROUND OF RAIN, APPEARS TO BE FOLLOWED BY ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN CHANCES FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES POPS RANGING FROM AROUND 30%
ALONG THE SPRINGFIELD LATITUDE TO AROUND 60 PERCENT INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ODDS ARE CURRENTLY
SLIGHTLY LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, TOPPING OUT AROUND 30-
40%. THE SPC HAS MENTIONED THE POTENTIAL FOR INCLUSION OF PORTIONS
OF THE AREA IN FUTURE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS, BUT CERTAINTY AND
COVERAGE ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE INITIAL FRONT APPEARS TO STALL OUT AS IT BRINGS THIS ACTIVITY TO
OUR AREA AND EVENTUALLY RETREATS TO THE NORTH, LEAVING US WITHOUT A
TRUE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WE WILL KEEP OUR STEADILY WARMING AIRMASS
AROUND, AND IT MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO WARM INTO EXTREME TERRITORY
BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO MID-AUGUST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
CEILINGS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT OR BELOW 10KTS
OVERNIGHT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SPEEDS AND GUSTS DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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