574
FXUS63 KSGF 171046
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
546 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TONIGHT UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY
MORNING AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 30S.
- WARMING TREND BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINS
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 F EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.
- THE CPC GIVES A 60-70% CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA YESTERDAY NOW EXTENDS ALL THE WAY FROM MAINE,
DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AND WELL INTO CENTRAL MEXICO.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE AMPLIFIED TROUGH AXIS BEHIND
THIS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ON THE DYNAMIC SUBSIDENCE
SIDE OF THE TROUGH, A 1038 MB SURFACE HIGH IS SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. LASTLY, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CHURNS OFF THE SW
CALIFORNIA COAST, THOUGH INTERESTINGLY, A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS
NOTED JUST NE OF THIS FEATURE.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR FROST EARLY THIS MORNING:
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER STILL OFF TO OUR WEST, WINDS ARE
STILL A BIT ELEVATED AT 8-12 MPH, ALONG WITH SOME REMNANT CLOUDS
ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING TOO SHARPLY, WITH READINGS JUST A BIT HIGHER THAN
FORECAST (SGF IS CURRENTLY AT 48 AS OPPOSED TO THE 43
FORECASTED). NORTHWEST OF THE PLATEAU, SKIES ARE MORE CLEAR, AND
WINDS ARE IN THE 3-5 KT RANGE. HERE, TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN
THE LOW 40S, BUT THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
SOME LIGHT PATCHY FROST. THAT SAID, ANY WIDESPREAD FROST
POTENTIAL SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA.
FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY:
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRAVERSE EASTWARD OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS CALM. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
STAY COOLER--OR MORE SEASONABLE--WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING:
WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE DEPARTING OUR REGION TO THE EAST
TONIGHT, LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST FOR THE
EASTERN OZARKS. HERE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
32-36 DEGREES. THEREFORE, FROST APPEARS MORE LIKELY (50-95%) IN
THIS REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE
WITHIN THE LOW-LYING TERRAIN FEATURES OF THE EASTERN OZARKS,
PARTICULARLY IN DENT AND SHANNON COUNTIES WHERE COOP OBSERVERS
FREQUENTLY COME IN MUCH LOWER THAN SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS.
GIVEN THE GREATER CONFIDENCE IN FROST ACROSS THIS AREA, A FROST
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR HOWELL, TEXAS, PHELPS, DENT, SHANNON, AND OREGON
COUNTIES. ELSEWHERE, LOWS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 36-40,
DECREASING WIDESPREAD FROST RISK, THOUGH PATCHY AREAS OF LIGHT
FROST STILL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WARMING TREND BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK:
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SLOWER
WAVE PROGRESSION OF A DIGGING TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SW CONUS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO A PROLONGED AMPLIFIED RIDGING PATTERN OVER OUR
AREA, RENEWING SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW, KEEPING WEATHER DRY, AND
INITIATING A WARMING TREND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
70 F, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR CONTEXT, NORMAL HIGHS FOR THAT TIME OF YEAR
ARE IN THE UPPER 60S.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO END OCTOBER:
ADDITIONALLY, THE CPC HAS OUR ENTIRE REGION IN A 60-70% CHANCE
FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD OF OCTOBER 24-30.
THIS POINTS TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN
PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE REST OF OCTOBER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD
BENEATH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. WHILE GENERALLY CALM,
PREDOMINANT WIND DIRECTION WILL LARGELY BE OUT OF THE NORTH
BETWEEN 12-14Z, OUT OF THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 14-00Z, AND OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03-12Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ071-082-083-
097-098-106.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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