096
FXUS63 KSGF 110535
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1235 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH HOT, DRY, AND
INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL CHALLENGE SOME RECORDS.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE REMNANTS OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
ISAIAS GRADUALLY MEANDERING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN US EARLY
THIS MORNING; MEANWHILE TWO (POST) TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE
NAVIGATING THE EASTERN PACIFIC SOUTH OF A DIGGING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A LESS PROMINENT SHORTWAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN IT, PIVOTING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED LEE-LOW WAS
DEVELOPING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA.
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY AND TOMORROW:
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, HEIGHT RISES, AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
PUSH 850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE 18 TO 20 DEG C RANGE--A TOUCH
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY--CORRELATING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 90 F GIVEN SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD COVER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A DRY AND MODERATELY DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PEAK MIXING HEIGHTS BETWEEN 5,000 AND 6,500 FT.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS DEEPENS
AND SHIFTS EAST, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN, AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE. FURTHERMORE, A BELT OF 25-30 KT 850 MB FLOW
ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME WESTERN MISSOURI WILL PERMIT
SOME OF THAT HIGHER MOMENTUM FLOW TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
NBM DEPICTS MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES (50-75%) FOR GUSTS OF
25 MPH WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR, BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AN ODD GUST CLOSER TO 30 MPH EITHER. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE BETWEEN 10 TO 20 MPH. FORTUNATELY, THE DRIEST RHS
WILL NOT BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS; THAT IS, RHS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 WILL DROP INTO THE 30-40% RANGE, WHILE THEY
WILL DROP INTO THE 25-35% RANGE TO THE EAST OF THIS DELINEATION
OWING IN PART TO DOWNSLOPING DRYING EFFECTS. THESE STRONGER
WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON,
MEANING A FIRE CAN SPREAD RAPIDLY SHOULD ONE START.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AND RH WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY, BUT WINDS WILL
BE STRONGER AND EXTEND FARTHER TO THE EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER AS WELL. GUSTS
OF 30 MPH WILL BE MORE COMMON, PARTICULARLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65,
WHERE REFS GUIDANCE INDICATES A 40-60% CHANCE. GIVEN THE LACK
OF MEANINGFUL RAINFALL OF LATE, FUELS ARE DRY AND SUSCEPTIBLE
TO FIRE STARTS. SEE THE FIRE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILED
FUEL INDEX INFORMATION.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CHALLENGE DAILY RECORDS. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. FOR CONTEXT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES ARE AROUND 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
HOT TUESDAY:
THE HOT AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
TUESDAY. IN FACT, NBM PERCENTILE DATA SUGGEST TUESDAY MAY BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER
THE MISSOURI OZARKS. IF CURRENTLY FORECASTED TEMPERATURES
VERIFY, DAILY RECORD MAX TEMPERATURES WOULD BE BROKEN OR TIED
AT ALL FOUR CLIMATE SITES.
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MID-WEEK:
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS AS WE PROCEED INTO LATE TUESDAY
AND THROUGH MID- WEEK THANKS TO A PAIR OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN
THE PACIFIC AND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO DEPICT
GOOD AGREEMENT IN INGESTING THE TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, RESULTING IN A STREAM
OF RICH MOISTURE CONTENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS DEPICTS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG
ENSEMBLES REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, BUT MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES STILL PERSIST.
THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES DEPICT CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A
COLD FRONT AS IT SAGS THROUGH MISSOURI LATE TUESDAY BEFORE
EVENTUALLY STALLING OUT AND LIFTING BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT WHEN THE PARENT UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS THROUGH
THE MIDWEST SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS SOLUTION
WOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES THAT LAST THROUGH
THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. THE ALTERNATIVE IS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN, WITH SOME ENSEMBLES--MOSTLY ECMWF MEMBERS--WANTING
TO CLOSE OFF A LOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND EFFECTIVELY
STALL OUT THE WAVE'S PROGRESSION, NEVER PHASING IT WITH THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN, THEN THE POSITIONING
OF THIS WAVE/LOW WILL BE OF UTMOST IMPORTANCE, AS IT COULD
EITHER MEAN A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
MISSOURI OZARKS, OR SOME LOCATIONS MISSING OUT ENTIRELY. A
GLANCE AT NAEFS ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES REVEALS A
STRONG SIGNAL FOR ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTENT IN FORECAST PWATS
AND SPECIFIC HUMIDITY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WHERE CONVECTION DOES FORM. INDEED, WPC'S DAY 3-7 HAZARDS
OUTLOOK MAP ENCOMPASSES THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A RISK FOR
HEAVY RAIN. CURRENT NBM RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT
(30-60%), MAX OUT ON WEDNESDAY (70-90%), AND DECREASE THURSDAY
NIGHT (25-50%).
AS WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY, HOWEVER, MANY FACTORS WILL HAVE TO
ALIGN FOR THIS RISK OF HEAVY RAIN TO BE REALIZED, AND THE
FORECAST CAN AND WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS, SO STAY
TUNED AS WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THESE IMPORTANT
METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH NEAR
TO PERHAPS EVEN BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER 12Z AND BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT
WILL WIND DOWN AFTER SUNSET.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 101 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
A PROLONGED PERIOD WITH SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL DEFICITS FROM LATE
SUMMER AND INTO THE FALL HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WORSENING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE
LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR VALID OCT 6 SHOWED A CONTINUED EXPANSION
OF THE D3 (EXTREME DROUGHT) AND AN OVERALL CATEGORICAL
DEGRADATION ACROSS THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA. RESULTANT
FUEL MOISTURE INDICES SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS. WOODY FM READINGS
BETWEEN 60-70 AND HERB FM VALUES OF 30-60 SUGGEST THESE FUELS
ARE CURED OR VERY DRY. COMBINED, THESE PRODUCE A GROWING SEASON
INDEX (GSI) OF 0.1 TO 0.3, INDICATING FUEL DORMANCY.
FURTHERMORE, KBDI VALUES GREATER THAN 600 (AND IN SOME CASES
GREATER THAN 700) ALSO SUGGEST FUELS ARE NEAR OR COMPLETELY
CURED.
WHILE RED FLAG WARNING (RFW) CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE
MET IN THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, WE WILL OFFICIALLY BEGIN OUR FIRE
WEATHER SEASON MESSAGING, AND HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED SHOULD
RFW CRITERIA BE FORECAST FROM THIS POINT ONWARD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
OCTOBER 11:
KSGF: 91/1963
KJLN: 91/2020
KVIH: 92/1963
KUNO: 93/1963
OCTOBER 12:
KSGF: 91/2024
KJLN: 93/2024
KVIH: 90/2024
KUNO: 87/1975
OCTOBER 13:
KSGF: 88/2017
KJLN: 88/1952
KVIH: 88/1899
KUNO: 93/1989
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
FIRE WEATHER...DIDIO
CLIMATE...DIDIO
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