887  
FXUS63 KSGF 180534  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1234 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- ROUND 1 OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT  
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  
 
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM ABOUT MIDDAY  
SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE  
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.  
 
- COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE  
FRONT. SLIGHT WARM UP OCCURS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE  
REST OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
MESOSCALE
 
 
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
SATELLITE IR IMAGERY SHOWED THE OZARKS IN A CLEAR SLOT JUST  
AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS  
SHOWED A COLD FRONT LAID OUT FROM JUST WEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY  
NORTHEAST TO AROUND THE KANSAS CITY AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING TO THE  
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WHAT  
PROVIDES THE OZARKS WITH SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL FOR EARLY  
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.  
 
NEWEST 00Z CAMS RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND  
STORMS FOR THE OZARKS SLIGHTLY. RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT HOLDS OF  
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION UNTIL AROUND 09Z (4AM) WITH A SLOW  
INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO MID- TO LATE MORNING. MODELS STILL  
INDICATE A 30 TO 45KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE REGION THROUGH 12Z,  
BUT LOOKING AT THE 00Z KSGF AND DOWN STREAM SOUNDINGS FROM KOKC  
AND KDFW, THERE IS A WELL DEFINED CAP NOTED WITH FROM  
100-200 J/KG OF CINH NOTED ON ALL THE SOUNDINGS. THE MID-LEVEL  
INVERSION WAS AROUND THE 700MB LEVEL WHICH WOULD PLACE CLOUD  
BASES AROUND THE 6-7KFT LEVEL AND THE LFC FROM 10-13KFT. THERE  
IS MUCAPE IN THE 700-900 J/KG RANGE THOUGH WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR  
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION POTENTIAL.  
 
WITH THIS IN MIND, LATEST THOUGHTS ARE THAT SHOWERS DON'T  
DEVELOP/MOVE IN TO THE OZARKS UNTIL AROUND 09-10Z PRIMARILY IN  
THE FORM OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. WITH THE LLJ  
ONGOING AT THAT TIME, IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE CELLS  
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAIN  
CONCERNS.  
 
THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES, HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE  
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAMS HAVE SOME VASTLY  
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FROM CONTINUED ISOLATED/DISCRETE SHOWERS  
AND STORMS TO A BROADER COVERAGE WITH EMBEDDED CELLS INTO THE  
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY IN  
THE AFTERNOON FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHIELD TO DEVELOP.  
THOUGH SOME MEMBERS FILL THE RAIN IN BEHIND A POTENTIAL SQUALL  
LINE/QLCS. WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING, INCREASED INSTABILITY AND  
THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF A LLJ AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE  
REGION OF A DEPARTING 250MB JET THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL  
HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CHECK BOXES MARKED OFF FOR STRONG TO  
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW BROAD  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  
THERE IS AN EMBEDDED CIRCULATION PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN MO, BUT  
THIS IS ONLY PRODUCING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. A  
CLOSED CIRCULATION OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WAS IN THE PROCESS  
OF BEING CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET  
CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT IS  
ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH  
READINGS AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.  
 
TONIGHT: INITIALLY WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD  
COVER THIS EVENING, BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE  
OVERNIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND  
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. CAMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP  
CONVECTION AFTER 09Z ACROSS OUR WEST AND BEGIN TO SHIFT THIS  
CONVECTION OVER THE I44 CORRIDOR BY 12Z-15Z. HAZARDS WITH THIS  
INITIAL CONVECTION WILL BE WITH LIGHTNING AND HAIL WITH MAINLY  
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.  
 
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SEVERE RISK: THE MODE OF THE  
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEPEND ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING  
CONVECTION BECOMES. A MORE WIDESPREAD MORNING THUNDERSTORM  
COVERAGE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY  
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, LESS MORNING COVERAGE WILL OFFER  
BETTER CHANCES FOR SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO.  
OUR BEST CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE WILL BE  
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO IF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOP. WE  
ARE EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE LINEAR BY MID  
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO  
SURGE EAST. THE TORNADO RISK, WHILE LOW IS NOT ZERO AND WOULD BE  
WITHIN THE QLCS. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE WITH 60-70MPH DAMAGING  
WINDS.  
 
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FLOODING POTENTIAL: CAMS ARE  
INDICATING MORE TRAINING OF STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH  
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44  
CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH  
A MORE NARROW CORRIDOR OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER  
AMOUNTS OF OVER 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. DESPITE THE CURRENT DROUGHT  
STATUS OVER THE AREA, THIS RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY PRODUCE SOME  
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING.  
 
MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT  
AND SHOULD END THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025  
 
COOLER ON SUNDAY: A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE  
AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING HIGHS MORE IN LINE WITH OUR  
CURRENT SEASON. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S  
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW  
40S IN THE EASTERN OZARKS AND THE UPPER 40S IN THE WESTERN CWA.  
 
WARMER AND BREEZY ON MONDAY: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF  
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH  
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,  
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND ADVANCING  
FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SWING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S  
ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL  
RETURN INTO THE AREA FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,  
SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY FOR NOW.  
 
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A COOLER AIR MASS  
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY BRINGING MORE  
FALL LIKE AIR TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S  
AND LOWS IN THE 40S, BUT COULD SEE SOME MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE  
EASTERN OZARKS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
 
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY: THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING CUTOFF  
FROM THE MAIN FLOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EVENTUALLY GET  
KICKED OUT AND ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN WESTERLIES BY MIDWEEK. IF  
THE ENERGY CAN HOLD TOGETHER, WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN CHANCES  
RETURN BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025  
 
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE  
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE  
THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO MVFR LEVELS AS  
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.  
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP DOWN TO 4 SM OR LESS IN THESE HEAVIER  
STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR TOMORROW WITH HAIL UP TO GOLF  
BALL SIZE, 70 MPH DAMAGING WINDS, AND A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO  
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE  
THROUGH BY SATURDAY EVENING ALLOWING CEILINGS TO RETURN BACK TO  
VFR BY SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
MESOSCALE...HATCH  
SHORT TERM...HATCH  
LONG TERM...HATCH  
AVIATION...SORIA  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab MO Page
The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page