570
FXUS63 KSGF 152206
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
506 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. ALL MODES OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE MAIN RISKS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. TORNADO
WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65
THIS EVENING.
- THURSDAY AFTERNOON HAS A LOW-END MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN OZARKS, WITH
PRIMARY HAZARD BEING LARGE HAIL.
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY, WITH AN
ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER BEGINNING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE.
- MARGINAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK IN AREAS
THAT SEE REPEATED STRONG STORMS AND/OR TRAINING PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FROM
WEST TEXAS INTO NEW ENGLAND. UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NEBRASKA
WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW INTO NEW MEXICO
WITH ANOTHER LOW ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SURFACE FRONT
WAS SHIFTING OUT OF CENTRAL KS INTO EASTERN KS WHERE SURFACE
BASED CAPES WERE IN THE 3500-4000 J/KG AND NO CIN WAS RESIDING.
THE MORNING CONVECTION AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE KEPT SOME CIN VALUES
AROUND 50-100 J/KG IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, BUT THIS WAS
SLOWLY ERODING AND BETTER CAPES WERE SPREADING EAST INTO THE
AREA. 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES WERE AROUND 50KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
STILL GETTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR EASTERN CWA
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS ACTIVITY.
SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON / TONIGHT: EXPECTING CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/DRYLINE IN EASTERN KS/OK
WITHIN THE BAND OF HIGHER INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE CWA WITH SOME DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE WHICH WOULD INCLUDE ALL MODES OF SEVERE
STORMS. AS THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT SHIFT EAST BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, STORMS MAY FORM INTO CLUSTERS OR
QLCS SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND AND AN EMBEDDED TORNADO RISK WILL
BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISKS THIS EVENING AS THE QLCS SHIFTS
EAST. WHILE THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE CAMS, THE
MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT THE EASTERN CWA BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT: INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF ANY RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION
FROM THE TODAY/TONIGHT SHORTWAVE. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH SOME OF THE CAMS GENERATING ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS. WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A
MARGINAL RISK(1 OF 5) FOR THIS ACTIVITY, IN WHICH THE MAIN RISK
WOULD BE WITH LARGE HAIL. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY THE EARLY EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING: THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AND INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
FRIDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE
SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL ADVECT GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY. WITH TEMPERATURES AND
MOISTURE INCREASING IN THE LOW LEVELS, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING DRY LINE/COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BEGIN
TO PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DRYLINE. AS THE
UPPER WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD, THE COLD FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO FORM INTO A QLCS WITH
DAMAGING WIND AND SPIN-UP TORNADO RISKS BECOMING THE MORE
PREDOMINANT SEVERE WEATHER RISKS. THE STORMS AND FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE NIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING. THIS UPPER WAVE
WILL FINALLY END OUR PERSISTENT PATTERN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 506 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA,
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS, AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THIS EVENING.
SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS LEADING ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65 THIS EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IN THE
STORMS WITHIN HEAVY RAINFALL. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS THIS EVENING.
CEILINGS MAY COULD IMPROVE TO VFR BEHIND THE STORMS, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BACK TO MVFR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 16:
KVIH: 85/2006
APRIL 17:
KSGF: 87/1937
KVIH: 86/2004
KUNO: 87/2006
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 15:
KSGF: 63/2006
KJLN: 66/2006
KUNO: 62/2006
KVIH: 63/1976
APRIL 16:
KSGF: 66/1963
APRIL 17:
KSGF: 66/1976
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...WISE
CLIMATE...CAMDEN
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