737
FXUS63 KSGF 041123
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT PATCHY FOG INTO THIS MORNING. WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING, ANY DENSE PATCHES OF FOG COULD FREEZE ON
ELEVATED SURFACES.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS:
- 500MB PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND A
TROUGH OVER THE WEST AND EAST EAST.
- THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT OVER THE AREA MONDAY WHILE FLATTENING TO
ZONAL FLOW BY MID WEEK, WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
- PATTERN SHIFTS LATE WEEK AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEKEND AS MODELS VARY
SIGNIFICANTLY.
FOG INTO THIS MORNING:
- PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS ONGOING IN SOME LOCATIONS, WHICH WILL
DISSIPATE THIS MORNING.
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NEAR THE MO/AR BORDER
LAKES. WHERE DENSE FOG DEVELOPS, FREEZING FOG MAY RESULT AS
TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW FREEZING. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME
LOCALIZED SLICK SPOTS.
TEMPERATURE TRENDS:
- NO RAIN OR IMPACTFUL WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM.
- TODAY: HIGHS MID 40S TO MID 50S.
- TONIGHT: LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S
- MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGHS IN THE 60S. LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S TO UPPER 40S.
- MAY GET WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS BUT NOT
FORECASTING ANY RECORDS TO BE BROKEN AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY:
- HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BUT THURSDAY COULD END UP COOLER IF RAIN DEVELOPS.
- LOWS IN THE 40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN POTENTIAL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY:
- STILL FORECASTING A 30-50% CHANCE OF RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT (GREATEST EAST).
- <20% CHANCES LINGER INTO FRIDAY.
- CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED IN TIMING, COVERAGE, AND AMOUNTS.
- NBM PROBABILITIES OF >= 0.5" OF PRECIP IS 30-50%.
PROBABILITIES OF >= 1.0" IS 10-30%.
- MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR NOTEWORTHY IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
NEXT WEEKEND:
- MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PATTERN WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
DEEP UPPER LOW TO MOVE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THAT MAY BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA (NBM PROBABILITY OF MAXT <=
32F IS 20-30% ON SUNDAY).
- FOR NOW, KEPT THE NBM DETERMINISTIC TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO 30S OVER THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
LIGHT FOG AT ALL SITES WILL BURN OFF THIS MORNING, GIVING WAY TO
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. LLWS IS THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
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