620
FXUS63 KSGF 041734
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1134 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER COOL CONDITIONS TODAY, TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE
AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. THE PRECIPITATION
OUTLOOK ALSO FAVORS ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST WED FEB 4
2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PIVOTING OVER THE PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS SET UP OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. MEANWHILE, A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK WAS
BLANKETING MUCH OF MISSOURI AND GRADUALLY CREEPING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST.
UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY TODAY:
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REINFORCE COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION AND KEEP TEMPERATURES UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A MORE SHALLOW MOIST LAYER FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY
65 AND THEREFORE BREAK UP THE STATUS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE CLEARER SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING, AND WE WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
WARM THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD:
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST
ON THURSDAY, LEAVING SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE BY FRIDAY. THIS
PROCESS WILL ALLOW A WARMER AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION,
AND WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB AS A RESULT. SATURDAY
TEMPERATURES MAY BE BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN FRIDAY AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE TRANSITS THE UPPER MIDWEST, THOUGH THEY WILL
STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE. ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS AGREE ON THIS
MUCH, AT LEAST, THOUGH SLIGHT VARIANCES IN THE LATITUDINAL
POSITIONING OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ARE PRODUCING A
MODERATE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT DEGREE OF WARMING
OUR AREA WILL EXPERIENCE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, THE NBM DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT HAS
TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER GEFS SOLUTION. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO
PAN OUT, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
WILL BE ACHIEVABLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE 25TH PERCENTILE
TEMPERATURES, MEANWHILE, ARE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. REGARDLESS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL ACCELERATE THE MELTING OF ANY
REMAINING SNOWPACK.
DRY THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD:
WITH THE MISSOURI OZARKS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE,
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TEND TO STUNT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN FACT, NBM PRECIPITATION CHANCES
REMAIN LESS THAN 10% AREAWIDE THROUGH MONDAY. LREF GRAND
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS BEGIN TO DIVERGE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THEIR
DEPICTION OF THE 500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN BY TUESDAY, HOWEVER. THEY
DO GENERALLY AGREE IN BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AROUND
THIS TIME, BUT ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS VARY GREATLY IN HOW THEY
HANDLE THE (POTENTIALLY) DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE PACIFIC. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT WILL AT LEAST OPEN THE DOOR TO THE RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE REGION, THOUGH, AND DETAILS WILL BE BETTER
ASSESSED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
STILL DEALING WITH LOW STRATUS AT MIDDAY TODAY, THOUGH IT IS
SLOWLY TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY OUT. CEILINGS CURRENTLY SITTING
VFR, BUT JLN STILL SEEING NEAR-MVFR WITH BKN AROUND 4KFT.
THOUGH WE'RE SEEING CLEARING, THE ORIENTATION OF THE BROADER
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LOW CLOUDS THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL VARY ACROSS THE TAF
SITES, BUT SHOULD START TO SEE WIDESPREAD LIFTING AND VFR AFTER
6Z.
WINDS START OUT NORTHERLY LESS THAN 10 KTS, BECOMING LIGHTER
AROUND 0Z AND TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE, PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
WEST. WINDS PICK BACK UP AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST, UP TO 15 KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IN FAR WEST
MISSOURI.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...NELSON
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