161
FXUS63 KSGF 151129
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
629 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN MID TO UPPER 80S APPROACHING RECORDS.
- INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE
MORE DRY TIME THAN NOT.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THE DISTURBANCE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO COULD
BE POSSIBLE AS MUCH OF IT NOT ALL OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING. THE STRONGEST WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHERE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS
MIXING OCCURS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF CLOUDS LINGER
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS, HIGHS THERE MAY ONLY WARM INTO THE
LOWER 80S.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. SOME WEAK ELEVATED MUCAPE WILL BE IN PLACE, SO A
FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED. IF ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP, THE
BASES WILL BE VERY HIGH WITH ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MAY NOT BE MUCH
MORE THAN SPRINKLES WHERE ANY SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP.
A STRONG CAP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND BETTER LIFT WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTH PORTIONS OF THE AREA. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA TONIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY. COVERAGE IN STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE BETTER WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AND COULD CONGEAL INTO A
CLUSTER OF STORMS. THE STORMS WOULD THEN LIKELY MOVE SOUTH. THE
BETTER SHEAR WILL BE TO THE NORTH SO THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA, AND A STRONGER CAP WILL BE IN
PLACE FATHER SOUTH. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST
AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 54. SOME SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT AS FAR
SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 60 AS THE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
THE BETTER COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WERE THE CAP
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL COULD
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH
THIS ACTIVITY.
LOWS WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WARM AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE SATURDAY MORNING, BUT WILL
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS WILL THEN WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
LOWS STAY WARM SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES,
MOSTLY IN THE 60S WITH SOME REMAINING AS WARM AS 70 IN THE WEST.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES SUNDAY, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND STRENGTHENING WAA, YET AGAIN WITH THE THREAT TO BREAK
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS THAT SYSTEM DRAGS THROUGH A FRONT,
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM NORTH OF THE AREA IN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA, COMING TOGETHER INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT HAS LESS
SEVERE POTENTIAL THE FARTHER IT MOVES SOUTH. THE SPC HAS
OUTLINED THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY, WITH THREAT MOVING LATER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE AREA MONDAY, MORE SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE SUPPORTED AS A STRONGER FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH
THROUGH ALL OF THE WARMTH AND MOISTURE THAT HAS COLLECTED IN THE
OZARKS OVER THE LAST WEEK. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE SLOWLY AND
PERHAPS STALL, WHICH EXPLAINS THE MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL MONDAY FROM WPC. AS THE FRONT IS IN NO HURRY TO MOVE
ON, ITS PRESENCE WILL ALSO BRING A SEVERE THREAT FOR TUESDAY,
CONTINGENT ON ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY. THIS ENERGY SHIFT WILL ALLOW
FOR MUCH COOLER HIGHS MIDWEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S NOT MUCH
WARMER THAN THE LOWS WE ARE EXPECTING THIS WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN IS STILL ACTIVE BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD,
AND THE WARMING TREND LOOKS TO MAKE A QUICK RECOVERY. THE CPC
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK IS STILL CALLING FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LEANS SLIGHTLY TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
LLWS IS THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE STRONGEST MOST LIKELY IN CENTRAL MISSOURI,
FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. MID- AND HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS
PASS BY THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH NO CIG/VIS CONCERNS AND VFR
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE VERY LOW
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE TAF SITE, WHICH MAY
SLIGHTLY REDUCE CIG/VIS TEMPORARILY.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 15:
KSGF: 87/1957
KJLN: 89/1911
KUNO: 87/1957
MAY 16:
KJLN: 89/2001
MAY 17:
KSGF: 88/2001
KJLN: 89/2001
KVIH: 92/1996
KUNO: 89/1980
MAY 18:
KSGF: 88/1962
KJLN: 90/1987
KVIH: 88/1996
KUNO: 89/2001
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES:
MAY 15:
KSGF: 67/1941
KJLN: 72/1941
KUNO: 55/1998
KVIH: 65/2023
MAY 16:0
KSGF: 69/2015
KJLN: 73/1974
KUNO: 67/2015
KVIH: 70/1899
MAY 17:
KSGF: 69/1974
KJLN: 75/1974
KUNO: 68/2017
KVIH: 68/2017
MAY 18:
KSGF: 68/1996
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 66/2017
KVIH: 70/1996
MAY 19:
KSGF: 69/2013
KJLN: 74/1996
KUNO: 70/1996
KVIH: 70/1996
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...NELSON
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
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