050
FXUS63 KSGF 091031
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
431 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
- FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING LOW
CHANCES (<30%) FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATER
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS THEN
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT MID WEEK.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN OCCUR LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- PROBABILITIES FAVOR ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION INTO MID-FEBRUARY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. JUST SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OCCURRING WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH
ALSO THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OCCURRING TODAY.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE. 850MB TEMPERATURE WILL WARM INTO THE TEENS C, AND
WITH SUNNY SKIES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI TODAY. SOME RECORD
HIGHS COULD BE APPROACHED TODAY, SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
MORE DETAILS ON RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR TODAY GENERALLY AROUND 10MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20MPH
AT TIMES. A DRY AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AS AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30
PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
FUELS CAN DRY OUT.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AGAIN ON TUESDAY, AS THE COOLER AIR
MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG SOME BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE MOVING INTO THE AREA. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A DRY AIR MASS REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
TUESDAY. CLOUD ICE WILL BE LIMITED AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE DRIER SIDE. THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT LIFT WITH THE
FRONT, BUT WITH THE DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE MOST OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
(<30% CHANCE) FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATER TUESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MID WEEK AS HIGHS MAINLY
WARM INTO THE 50S MID WEEK. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD WARM INTO THE
60S ON THURSDAY. LOWS WILL GENERALLY COOL INTO THE 30S EACH
NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEEK
(THURSDAY/FRIDAY). THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES
(20-40%) TO THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL
REMAIN LIMITED AND THIS RAIN MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD IN NATURE.
THERE ARE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE LATE WEEK.
THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS THEN INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ON TO THE WEST COAST LATE WEEK THEN MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AMONG THE MODEL MEMBERS AND FROM RUN TO
RUN. THE MORE SOUTHERN MEMBERS KEEP MOST OF THE RAIN SOUTH OF
THE AREA, BUT THE NORTHERN MEMBERS BRINGING THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. STILL GOING WITH A 40 TO 60%
CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BUT AGAIN THE EXACT
DETAILS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH THERE ARE STILL QUESTIONS ON.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN WILL
BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15KTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 155 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 9:
KSGF: 76/1932
KJLN: 73/2000
KVIH: 69/2000
KUNO: 73/1954
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
CLIMATE...LINDENBERG
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