967
FXUS63 KSGF 022328
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
528 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL THE MAIN RISK ON TUESDAY
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF MARCH. THERE IS A
RISK FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEK AND
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE DRY PERIODS. THERE WILL BE THE FOR
ISOLATED FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER MID-WEEK AND AGAIN LATE
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW MOSTLY SPLIT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
CONUS WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH JET ENERGY
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW. THE POLAR JET REMAINS WELL TO
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, MAINLY ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER
INTO NEW ENGLAND. A SURFACE FRONT REMAINS FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER
CENTRAL ARKANSAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN BAND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT WE
STILL HAVE LOW CEILINGS/DRIZZLE AND FOG ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER.
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND THE AREA ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT,
TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTHWEST.
REST OF THE AFTERNOON: THE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM RISING TOO MUCH WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NORTH TO
MID 50S SOUTHWEST. PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE MAY PERSIST
IN THE FAR SOUTH.
TONIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE
ROCKIES WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IN
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL IMPINGE ON THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITH MUCAPES INCREASING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STOP ITS
NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OVER OUR NORTHERN CWA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
LOW CEILINGS AND DRIZZLE LOOK LIKELY IN AREAS WHERE CLOUD ICE IS
MISSING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE WITH STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: A THERMAL CAP WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH
MOST OF THE AREA(SOUTH OF THE FRONT) EXPECTED TO MOSTLY DRY DAY.
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL MO, SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. SMALL HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER CONVECTION. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE FRONT IN CENTRAL MO MAY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
TUESDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER WAVE SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS
ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
CWA BY EARLY WED. MORNING. MODELS DO HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS
WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND RESULTANT MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT. HIGHEST PROBABILITIES CONTINUE
TO SHOW LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH THE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. BEST SHEAR/CAPE COMBOS HAVE THE BETTER
SEVERE CHANCES TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
COULD STILL SEE SOME STRONG STORMS IN THE WEST AS WE APPROACH
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER RISK
EXISTS OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER WAVE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY/SHEAR REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF
THE CWA, THERE WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH OVER OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
MARGINALLY TO SEVERE STORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WHEN THE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISKS
WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AT THE SAME TIME THE UPPER WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE AREA, ANOTHER
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST. THE TIMING OF
THIS NEXT WAVE IS STILL IN QUESTION WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A
CUTOFF SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. LATE IN THE
WEEK WHICH MAY DELAY THE TIMING OF THE FRONT INTO THE AREA.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THAT NEXT SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
WEAKER ENERGY INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
WHILE CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED TO MVFR/VFR, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT SGF AND BBG.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT CEILINGS WILL DROP INTO MVFR WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR IFR AT SGF AND BBG AFTER 03Z. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
HOWEVER WITH REGARDS TO FOG POTENTIAL. HAVE INCLUDED VIS
DROPPING DOWN TO 2SM AT BBG OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THERE IS A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE THAT IT DROPS BELOW 1 MILE WITH ADDITIONAL UPDATES
LIKELY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ADDING THEM
TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE
EAST WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
SPEEDS. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT JLN AND SGF OVERNIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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