514
FXUS63 KSGF 261143
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
543 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES (70-80%) SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, INCLUDING POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY MIX.
- ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF MARCH, WITH A
THREAT FOR ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK (MARCH 5-11).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY:
- IMPACTS: LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
- MESSAGING: GRAPHIC HIGHLIGHTING FIRE DANGER.
- DETAILS: HIGHS IN THE 70S (EVEN UPPER 70S SATURDAY).
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH.
MINRH VALUES OF 20-35% BOTH DAYS.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: ANY RAIN FROM THIS MORNING WILL BE
ISOLATED AND GENERALLY LIGHT, NOT PROVIDING SUBSTANTIAL
MOISTURE TO REDUCE FIRE FUEL THREAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, A WARMER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE
WEST, BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S. IF MIXING OVERACHIEVES, THEN INCREASED TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASED DEW POINTS MAY NEED TO BE INTEGRATED INTO THE
FORECAST, RESULTING IN MINRH IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES (70-80%) SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, INCLUDING POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTRY MIX.
- IMPACTS: POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN, LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN, LIGHT SNOW, AND SLEET, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60.
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY EXISTS, THOUGH. STAY TUNED.
- MESSAGING: GIVEN WIDE MODEL SPREAD IN CRITICAL PARAMETERS,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. ADVERTISING LIKELY PRECIP AND GENERALLY
SOME WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE, BUT CAN'T GO INTO SPECIFICS AT THIS
POINT.
- DETAILS: WIDESPREAD PRECIP DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGERS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT (POSSIBLY IN 2-3 WAVES) WITH
CHANCES AT 70-80%. TEMPERATURE FIELDS AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT ARE NOT WELL AGREED ON BY MODELS, BUT CHANCES DO EXIST
FOR ALL MODES OF WINTRY PRECIP.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS:
- A COLD FRONT MOVES IN AND STALLS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS UPPER ENERGY AND JET STRUCTURE
FAVOR WIDESPREAD LIFT/PRECIP. THIS RESULTS IN HIGH POPS AS
MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN, BUT DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THERMAL FIELDS THAT
WILL DETERMINE PTYPE.
- 10TH-90TH ENSEMBLE SURFACE TEMPERATURE SPREAD ON SUNDAY IS
30-40 DEGREES F. AT 850MB, 00Z/26 LREF TEMPERATURE SPREAD
IS 10+ DEGREES C ON SUNDAY. SO WHILE WE ARE INCREASINGLY
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES, PRECIPTIATION TYPE REMAINS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
- AT 6AM SUNDAY, LREF SHOWS A JOINT PROBABILITY FOR
TEMPERATURES < 32 AND QPF > 0.05 AT 30-50% NORTH OF A LINE
FROM NEVADA, MO TO LEBANON, MO TO SALEM, MO.
ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF MARCH, WITH A
THREAT FOR ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK (MARCH 5-11).
- IMPACTS: LOW CONFIDENCE/PREDICTABILITY HEAVY
RAINFALL/FLOODING EVENT IN THIS TIME FRAME.
- MESSAGING: ADVERTISING ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. WPC 8-14 DAY HAZARDS OUTLOOK SHOWS THIS
WELL WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MARCH 5-11 AND A
MODERATE RISK MARCH 5-7.
- DETAILS: GENERALLY 40-60% CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH PERIOD
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A
MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR FLOODING MAY BECOME ESTABLISHED.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE DESERT SW
SLOWLY MOVES EAST, THE PATTERN MAY INCREASINGLY RESEMBLE A
MADDOX HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP WITH SW FLOW ALOFT, A STALLED
FRONT OVER/NEAR THE AREA, AND INCREASING MOISTURE. GEFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW SEVERAL PERIODS WITH PWATS ABOVE 1",
REPRESENTING AROUND 150-250% OF NORMAL VALUES. ADDITIONALLY,
THESE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS SHOW 5 DAY PRECIP ANOMALIES OF
+1.5-2.5" THROUGHOUT THE MARCH 5-11 TIME RANGE. STILL A LOT
OF DETAILS TO WORK OUT, BUT ENHANCED MONITORING FOR FLOOD
POTENTIAL IN THIS PERIOD IS WARRANTED.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
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