240
FXUS63 KSGF 021136
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
636 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALIZED FROST POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TONIGHT.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
- ADDITIONAL LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
LOCALIZED FROST POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TONIGHT:
- IMPACTS: RISK TO SENSITIVE PLANTS IN TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER
THE EASTERN OZARKS.
- DETAILS: FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S OVER
THE EAST ALONG WITH ISOLATED, PATCHY FROST.
- CONFIDENCE: NBM PROBABILITY OF MIN TEMPS < 36 F IS 30-60% IN
THE IMPACTED AREA. THIS IS A ROUGH PROXY FOR FROST
POTENTIAL.
MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY:
- IMPACTS: LOW POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH 60 MPH
WINDS AND ONE INCH HAIL.
- DETAILS: NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FROM WEST-CENTRAL MO
THROUGH CENTRAL MO MAY SEE ISOLATED STORMS, A COUPLE OF WHICH
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH
DAYS.
- CONFIDENCE: SPC SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE 5%, WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED COVERAGE.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: SHORTWAVE ENERGY BOTH DAYS WILL LEAD
TO SIMILAR POTENTIALS BOTH DAYS. A ROUGHLY 30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SREF INTERQUARTILE CAPE/SHEAR VALUES
ARE 500-1,500 J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH 35-45 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THIS MAY LEAD TO A COUPLE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
ADDITIONAL LOW END SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK TUESDAY:
- IMPACTS: LOW RISK (< 15% CHANCE) FOR SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY.
- DETAILS: SPC DOES NOT HIGHLIGHT THE AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A LOW END SEVERE RISK.
- CONFIDENCE: LOW.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: NW FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO 50-80% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH A < 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. SEVERE STORM
CHANCES ARE SHOWN BY SOME OF THE AI/ML GUIDANCE. TIMING
DIFFERENCES MAY PUSH THE THREAT EARLIER OR LATER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
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