383
FXUS63 KSGF 022322
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
522 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A MODEST COOLDOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SATURDAY, DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
- A PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
CURRENT RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN AND
CLOUDS CLEARING FROM OUR AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS
IS OCCURRING AS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS
SYSTEM HAS PULLED DOWN THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI DOWN INTO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS, ALONG WITH CLOUD
COVER, HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS ON
TRACK TO REACH THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, TO THE
MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF KANSAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI.
COLD FRONT BRINGS MODEST COOLDOWN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S SATURDAY:
ALSO NOTED ON MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ANOTHER SMALL
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE. THE SMALL
AND COMPACT NATURE OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO ALLOW IT TO
QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS TO MORE
NORTHERLY, ALLOWING COOLER AIR TO FILTER FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
AREA. HIGH SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, UP TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT THEN SINK INTO THE 20S
SATURDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, THE FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH THIS
MORNING HAS KICKED OUT MUCH OF THE MOISTURE. THEREFORE, THE
SHORTWAVE TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY, HOWEVER, SOME MODELS
KEEP SOME RESIDUAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THAT COULD BE SQUEEZED
OUT WITH WEAK LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE. THEREFORE, SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES (DEPENDING ON YOUR TEMPERATURE AT THE
TIME) MAY MOVE THROUGH BETWEEN 3 AM AND 10 AM SATURDAY MORNING.
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF NEXT WEEK:
AFTER THE TWO SMALL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN HOLDS TRUE WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL INITIATE A QUICK RETURN TO A
WARMING TREND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS WINDS SHIFT BACK OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI, TO THE MIDDLE 50S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. LOWS WILL ALSO BE WARMER
IN THE LOWER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY CLIMB
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS INCHES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
NBM SPREADS ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT IN HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WITH RIDGING OVERHEAD,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO BE NEAR ZERO THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.
MID-WEEK PATTERN CHANGE BRINGS OUR NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION:
AFTER WEDNESDAY, GLOBAL ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A LONGWAVE PATTERN CHANGE THAT MAY PERSIST FOR
AT LEAST A FEW DAYS. ALL CLUSTERS DEPICT THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. THIS TYPE OF PATTERN GENERALLY ALLOWS MOISTURE ADVECTION
AND LIFT THAT COULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE DAYS OF RAIN CHANCES
DEPENDING ON THE SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH. WHILE THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, CLUSTERS STILL REVEAL
VARYING DIFFERENCES IN THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHORTWAVES WHICH
IS RESULTING IN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION
OF RAIN CHANCES.
THAT SAID, AS WE CLOSE IN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLES
ARE STARTING TO AGREE A BIT MORE ON ONE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION
LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM MEXICO, BRINGING THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE'S STILL SOME
VARYING DIFFERENCES IN POSITION AND TIMING, LEADING TO 30-50%
CHANCES TROUGH THE PERIOD. BUT, THE SIGNAL IS STRENGTHENING FOR
A WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THAT PERIOD, BRINGING SOME RAIN CHANCES.
GOING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEYOND THURSDAY, AI VERSUS
PHYSICAL ENSEMBLES DIVERGE IN THE EXPECTED PATTERN. AI EPS AND
GEFS ENSEMBLES PRODUCE A DECENT SIGNAL IN THE TROUGHING QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS, BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BACK TO OUR AFTER NEXT WEEKEND. ON THE OTHER HAND, PHYSICAL GEFS
AND EPS ENSEMBLES KEEP MEAN FLOW A BIT MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A FEW MORE DAYS AFTER. DEPENDING ON THE LENGTH OF THE
PATTERN WILL DETERMINE THE NUMBER OF SYSTEMS THAT MOVE THROUGH.
THE PHYSICAL ENSEMBLE SCENARIO WOULD ALLOW FOR MULTIPLE CHANCES
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WHEREAS THE AI SCENARIO WOULD PROBABLY KEEP
US MORE DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW. RECENT RESEARCH SUGGESTS AI
ENSEMBLES ARE A BIT BETTER AT IDENTIFYING/FORECASTING LARGE-
SCALE FEATURES/PATTERNS THAN PHYSICAL ENSEMBLES, SO IT WILL
BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THE LONG-RANGE PATTERN PANS OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AT THE TERMINALS AT THE START OF THE
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, LOW STRATUS CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
ARE GRADUALLY CREEPING SOUTH AND WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN
MISSOURI THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
AT LEAST LOW MVFR CEILINGS, BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE (30% CHANCE). THESE REDUCED CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING
IN THE AFTERNOON.
A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH BY 12Z. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN FLURRIES WITH THIS FRONT, BUT
IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...DIDIO
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