488
FXUS63 KSGF 050701
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
101 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- PROBABILITIES FAVOR ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE-
AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN THE FEB 12TH TO 18TH PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 101 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
A LOW-LEVEL STRATUS DECK WAS ALIGNED DOWN THE MISSOURI/KANSAS
BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES TO THE EAST. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NICELY SHOWED A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS CUTTING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS WITH
AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
THE WARMUP BEGINS TODAY:
AS THE TROUGH PIVOTS EAST OF MISSOURI, A WARMER AIRMASS WILL
ADVECT INTO THE REGION. AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WILL BE THE
SLOWEST TO WARM AND MAY STILL SEE TEMPERATURES FAIL TO CLIMB OUT
OF THE 40S TODAY, BUT FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S WILL BE
COMMON.
A SEPARATE, WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSE WILL TRANSIT THE
MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MODESTLY BREEZY
WINDS. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY,
PARTICULARLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM:
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST LATE THIS
WEEK, MUCH OF THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A PASSING SHORTWAVE AND WEAK
COLD FRONT LOOK TO SUPPRESS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SOMEWHAT ON
SATURDAY, RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY'S.
BEYOND THAT, HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MUCH-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, THERE'S EVEN SOME
SIGNAL IN THE ECMWF'S EXTREME FORECAST INDEX FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY. ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND
WARMER WITH THEIR TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAST 2-3 FORECAST CYCLES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, TOO. THUS, THE QUESTION IS NOT IF WE WILL
WARM UP--BUT RATHER, HOW MUCH? AT THIS POINT, THE PRIMARY DRIVER
OF THE ENSEMBLE TEMPERATURE SPREADS IS THE MAGNITUDE/STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE. A DEEPER RIDGE WOULD TEND TO MEAN WARMER
TEMPERATURES; NBM 75TH PERCENTILE HIGHS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S ON SUNDAY AND IN THE 70S AREAWIDE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
CONVERSELY, 25TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S ON SUNDAY AND IN THE 60S AREAWIDE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DRY THROUGH MONDAY:
THE WARMUP WILL INITIALLY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER AS THE MISSOURI OZARKS REMAIN WITH A LACK OF LIFT AND/OR
UNDER DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN
LESS THAN 10% THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES WANT
TO CLOSE OFF AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST ON
FRIDAY AND KEEP IT THERE UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE THEN
SHOWS THAT LOW TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE AND FINALLY
SHIFTING EAST SOMETIME MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AS IT DOES SO, THE
RESULTANT LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL MANIFEST RAIN CHANCES.
EXTENDED GLOBAL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY THAT THIS
PATTERN CHANGE MAY USHER IN A MORE ACTIVE STRETCH OF WEATHER AS
WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE MONTH, BUT DETAILS REMAIN SPARSE,
AND IT IS FAR TOO EARLY TO LATCH ONTO ANY ONE DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF
PERIOD. A STRATUS DECK ALIGNED DOWN WESTERN MISSOURI MAY
OCCASIONALLY DROP TO MVFR LEVELS EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
OTHERWISE IS EXPECTED TO STAY JUST ABOVE THE 3000 FT THRESHOLD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON, OCCASIONALLY GUSTING BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KT FROM THE
WEST.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
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