548
FXUS63 KSGF 040702
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
202 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN RISKS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE BUT MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY
WITH GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING
AND OCCURRING INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
WILL OCCUR AT TIMES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE AREA AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE
IN PLACE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WHEN THE
STORMS FIRST MOVE INTO THE AREA, AND COULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND RISK AND A HAIL RISK UP TO QUARTERS TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SOUTH OF I-44 AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS
AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN RISKS WITH THE
STORMS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDOW FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE SHORT FOR OUR AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
TUESDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL THEN OCCUR AT TIMES BEHIND THE
FRONT TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLING LINGERING
INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.
THE REGION WILL THEN BE IN A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AT TIMES. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S RETURNING
BY THE WEEKEND.
THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS THEN INDICATE ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES LATE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND WILL BECOME GUSTY
MONDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THE TAF SITES WILL
BE JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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