581
FXUS63 KSGF 181937
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
137 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE I-49 CORRIDOR.
- NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 45 MPH WILL OCCUR AT
TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 8PM THIS
EVENING.
- DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE FOR LOCATIONS IN
THE AREA GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 63 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA BY
MID AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES DROPPED INTO THE 40S UNDER THE CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION, BUT CLOUDS ARE QUICKLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASING BACK INTO THE 50S
WHERE THE SKIES CLEAR. A SECONDARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
A COLDER AIR MASS IS BEHIND THIS FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY IN
UPPER 40S AND 50S THEN WILL DROP QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT. A
DRIER AIR MASS IS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTERNOON, WHERE THE SKIES ARE CLEARING. AS A RESULT HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP FROM WEST TO EAST THIS BEFORE THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES ADVECTS SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY. THESE
DRIER CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO
SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. THE DRIEST
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF I-49 WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.
WINDS INCREASED WITH THE SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALSO JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING, BUT HAVE SINCE WEAKEN SOME
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS WEAKENING IN THE WINDS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED, AS THE SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR MIXING WILL START TO
OCCUR. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 45 MPH OCCURRING AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
AFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI COULD SEE
READINGS IN THE UPPER TEENS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL START TO RETURN TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL MO TO THE LOWER 50S ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KS AND
FAR SOUTHWESTERN MO.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON
SATURDAY ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S OCCURRING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE TO OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH
THE TROUGH.
LONG WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THEN SETS UP OVER THE REGION
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA NEXT WEEK. THE
ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON HIGHS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE
NBM 25TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S DURING THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
THE FIRST OF THREE COLD FRONTS MOVED THROUGH WITH THE NEXT
MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS MORNING AND THE LAST
FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH HE REGION THIS EVENING. THERE
WILL BE LIMITED VISIBILITY ISSUES WITH THE AIR MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION WITH VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS BY 19Z-21Z.
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE WINDS WHICH
WERE INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTH THIS MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY
TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SUBSEQUENT FRONTS THROUGH THE
DAY. SURFACE AND ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE HIGH AND GUSTY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS FROM FROM 35 TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
40 TO 45 MPH INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-
101.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ066-077-
088-093-101.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...HATCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page