104
FXUS63 KSGF 231900
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
200 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH
MID-WEEK, AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND INTO MID-WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(40-70%) ALONG A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION TODAY, WITH A
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A FEW PASSING MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE PATTERN, WITH
MINIMAL RETURN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THUS, MOST OF THE
PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS THAN ANYTHING. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME LOW
CHANCES (LESS THAN 15%) FOR SPRINKLES, FROM EARLY THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY WITH THESE
PASSING SHORTWAVES. AS NOTED, THE LACK OF MOISTURE AND DRY AIR
REMAIN ANOTHER HEADLINE EARLY THIS WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES FALL TO AROUND 20 TO 30% THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY
OF BREEZY EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS INTRODUCES SOME AREAS OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, WITH DRY FUELS IN PLACE ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY HAVE BEEN MUCH COOLER THAN
OVER THE WEEKEND, TOPPING OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 50S TO NEAR
60 IN FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI.
TUESDAY:
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH THE
RIDGE BUILDING FURTHER EAST INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL SUPPORT
IN SOME MOISTURE RETURN, THOUGH STILL VERY DRY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ARE PROGGED TO FALL ONCE AGAIN, WITH LOWER TO
MIDDLE 30 PERCENT (WEST OF HIGHWAY 65) AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 20
PERCENT (EAST OF HIGHWAY 65). SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN
BREEZY, WITH MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
WEDNESDAY-THRUSDAY:
AS THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO MID-WEEK, EXPECT
INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (15 TO 25+ DEGREES ABOVE) ACCOMPANY THIS
PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S, BEFORE GIVING WAY TO HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THURSDAY. SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
WEEKEND, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION). ADDITIONALLY, A DRIER AIRMASS REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
FALL INTO 30S TO NEAR 40 PERCENT, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. IN
PARTICULAR, THURSDAY WILL FEATURE AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 25 TO 35 MPH AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM TO OUR
WEST. THIS DAY WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED, THOUGH THE
REMAINING UNCERTAINTY IS JUST HOW DRY ARE WE IN THE AREA AHEAD
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BY THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO
GOOD AGREEMENT ON RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) ALONG A COLD FRONT.
LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN A HALF INCH, WITH THE HIGHEST FOCUSED NORTH OF INTERSTATE
44. THIS AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, AS MUCAPE IS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
IN THE VICINITY OF MODEST SHEAR. SPC DAY 4 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
CLIPS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI, SUGGESTING A FEW ISOLATED
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN PLAY. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS STILL
REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW THE MESOSCALE UNFOLDS AND WILL
BE BETTER DIAGNOSED IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY:
RAIN CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY MORNING, BEFORE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE KICKS THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. MUCH
COOLER TO END THE WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH WITH MORE CLOUDS
THAN SUN. HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60, THOUGH TIMING
DIFFERENCES WITH FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN CHANCES MAY IMPACT
HIGHS FRIDAY.
THE AREA GRADUALLY WARMS BACK UP INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 60S. THIS WILL KEEP US CLOSER TO NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S.
MEANWHILE, DRIER WEATHER PERSISTS BEYOND INTO THE WEEKEND,
REINTRODUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. THIS CAN BE GLEANED FROM AFAR, WITH FORECAST
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 15 TO 25% IN THE VICINITY OF
BREEZY SOUTH- SOUTHEAST WINDS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
FOR UPDATES, AS THE FIRE WEATHER SEASON WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
SPRING GREEN UP IN APRIL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
LOW CHANCES (< 15%) FOR SOME SPRINKLES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH A PASSING SYSTEM. MOST LOCATIONS
REMAIN DRY. INCREASING MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS BECOME MORE EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 25:
KSGF: 83/1910
KJLN: 88/1910
KVIH: 80/1959
KUNO: 79/2012
MARCH 26:
KSGF: 82/2020
KJLN: 86/1910
KVIH: 83/2020
KUNO: 86/2020
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
CLIMATE...TITUS
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