303
FXUS63 KSGF 241059
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
559 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10AM THIS MORNING FOR
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF AN OZARK TO MILLER COUNTY LINE. THESE
AREAS CAN EXPECT TO SEE VISIBILITIES DROP TO A QUARTER MILE
OR LESS AT TIMES.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME BETWEEN
ROUNDS OF RAIN.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
CURRENT SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW SITUATED
OVER MANITOBA/ONTARIO IN CANADA, WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE
CONTINUING TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING THROUGH DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY BRINGING THE RAIN TO THE AREA HAS NOW PUSHED
EAST, TAKING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WITH IT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. RADAR DOES SHOW SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CWA AS OF 2AM, WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
CONTINUES MOVING AWAY.
FOG THIS MORNING:
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN DECLINING VISIBILITIES OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS, WITH LOCATIONS WEST OF I-49 DROPPING BELOW A MILE (REACHING
0.25 MILES IN SOME SPOTS), AND AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 NOT TOO FAR
BEHIND. WITH HREF PROBABILITIES SHOWING 60-80% CHANCES OF
VISIBILITIES <0.25 INCREASING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AND
CONTINUING PAST SUNRISE, DECIDED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
AREAS ALONG/WEST OF AN OZARK TO MILLER COUNTY LINE UNTIL 10AM THIS
MORNING.
REST OF TODAY:
ONCE THE FOG AND THE RAIN CLEAR OUT LATER THIS MORNING, THE
REST OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY, WITH CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. AREAS OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL MISSOURI
(SOUTHEAST OF I-44) MAY NOT CLEAR OUT AS MUCH, WITH THAT AREA
BEING CLOSER TO THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
REGARDLESS, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S, WHICH IS NEAR- NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MEMORIAL DAY FORECAST:
MONDAY MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP TO OUR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST, SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY UP INTO THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTHEAST BECOMES
PSEUDO- STATIONARY, ALLOWING THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR THE
HOLIDAY. THERE STANDS A 15-25% CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE MO/AR BORDER EAST OF HIGHWAY 65, HOWEVER IF THESE WERE TO
OCCUR, THEY'D BE LIGHT, WITH HARDLY ANY MEASURABLE AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY CLEAR / MOSTLY SUNNY,
WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. OVER OUR SOUTHEAST WHERE CLOUDS PERSIST
AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES EXIST, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH 80.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
BEGINNING ON TUESDAY, THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AND BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
UP INTO THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND WOBBLE AROUND THE REGION
FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS A RESULT, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL BRING
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. TUESDAY
SHOWCASES 60-80% CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE
BEST CHANCES CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR. AS
MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY, WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ALL-DAY WASHOUTS, WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN MIXED WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE RAINFALL
OCCURRING AT TIMES. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
THE NBM INTERQUARTILE SPREADS SHOW INCREASING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES THE FURTHER OUT WE GO, LEADING TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. AS A GENERAL
GUIDELINE, DAYS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LONGER BREAKS IN THE RAIN
WILL LEAD TO HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S, WITH
CLOUDIER/RAINIER DAYS LIMITING HIGHS TO THE LOW/MID 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
DENSE FOG HAS LOWERED VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR
LESS AT TIMES AT KSGF AND KJLN PRIMARILY, LEADING TO IFR TO
VLIFR CONDITIONS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE BACK TO VFR BY 14Z-15Z.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 5KTS
AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-
101.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>057-
066>069-077>081-088>096-101>105.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...MELTO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page