124  
FXUS63 KSGF 230741  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
241 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2021  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2021  
 
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK  
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AND A VEERING 850MB JET.  
THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE/MOISTURE DEPTH HAS BEEN ADEQUATE FOR  
SHOWERS BUT NOT ALL THAT GREAT OVERALL AND RAIN AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN  
LIGHT.  
 
A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN UT AND AZ  
WILL SHIFT EAST TO WESTERN KS/WESTERN OK/NORTH TX BY LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND WE WILL SEE INCREASED LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
ADVECTION OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE TODAY. LOW LEVEL/850MB  
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO SET UP OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO CENTRAL MO  
(ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-44) THIS EVENING WHERE WE COULD SEE SOME SMALL  
SCALE RAIN AMOUNTS OF AROUND 2 INCHES (AND LOCALLY HIGHER) WITH  
LESSER GENERAL AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. OVERALL BROAD BRUSH MARGINAL  
WPC EXCESSIVE RAIN RISK STILL LOOKS GOOD, BUT COULD SEE A LOCALLY  
HIGHER RISK IN THE NORTHERN/WESTERN CWFA TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)  
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2021  
 
SATURDAY: SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY WITH  
COOL TEMPERATURES AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDS. MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE  
RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS NIGHT'S RAIN.  
 
SUNDAY-MONDAY: NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH A WARMING TREND  
STILL EXPECTED. A LARGE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.  
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN CWFA  
ON MONDAY. SOME DAYTIME GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. STILL  
HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S IN MOST OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: STILL A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE STRONG/SEVERE TSTM  
PERIOD WITH GUIDANCE IN BROAD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN MOVING A DEEP  
UPPER TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. 00Z GUIDANCE STILL  
DIFFERS ON EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO THE  
CENTRAL CONUS. THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE FASTER THAN MOST  
GUIDANCE WHILE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE (ECMWF, CANADIAN/GDPS,  
UKMET) ARE SLOWER AND MORE CLOSED OFF WITH THE UPPER LOW. LATE  
TUESDAY (GFS) AND/OR WEDNESDAY (OTHER GUIDANCE) WILL BE THE  
FAVORED TIME FOR SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL AS CONVECTION BREAKS OUT  
OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT  
FALLS/WEAKENING CAP AND AN ALREADY ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
FETCH OFF THE WESTERN GULF. VERTICAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE  
IN PLACE BUT GUIDANCE STILL VARIES ON THIS DEPENDING ON SYSTEM  
EVOLUTION. HIGH MOISTURE/PWATS MAY ALSO RESULT IN AN EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL RISK SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND  
WILL MONITOR FORECAST EVOLUTION AND TIMING TRENDS.  
 
THURSDAY: LOOKS COOLER/CLOUDY WITH MAYBE SOME LINGERING LIGHT  
RAIN/DRIZZLE. LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE GUIDANCE DIFFERENCES BY  
THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT THU APR 22 2021  
 
RAIN SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND WILL  
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THIS CONTINUES, CEILINGS  
WILL SLOWLY FALL FROM VFR TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AS  
PRECIPITATION TAPPERS OFF. ONCE THE RAIN SLOWS, CEILINGS WILL  
CONTINUE TO LOWER TO MVFR AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES.  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE  
REGION FOR THE IN THE AFTERNOON. WHERE STORM OCCUR, VISIBILITIES  
MAY BECOME IFR OTHERWISE EXPECTED VFR TO MVFR VISIBILITIES IN  
RAIN. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE DAY.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DSA  
LONG TERM...DSA  
AVIATION...HATCH  
 
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