590
FXUS63 KSGF 172351
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH OF RAIN.
- SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20+ MPH WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 30 TO 40+ MPH ON THURSDAY.
- ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT FIRE DANGER ACROSS EXTREME WESTERN
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AS OF 2PM SHOWS A BAND OF SCATTERED
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BEHIND THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PUSHED
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS HAVE BEGUN TO PUSH NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI, WITH
OVERCAST SKIES BETWEEN 2-3KFT. TEMPERATURES SO FAR HAVE RANGED
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER THE
WESTER CONUS, WHICH IS PROGGED TO TREK EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
REGION, DRAGGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING. COINCIDING WITH THIS, A 50-65KT LOW LEVEL JET
(LLJ) LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER KANSAS LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT,
PUSHING INTO WESTERN MISSOURI BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH THE
VARIOUS POTENTIAL IMPACTS OUTLINED BELOW:
DRIZZLE/LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING:
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA THIS
EVENING AS THE LLJ AND COLD FRONT APPROACH THE REGION. WITH
"WARMER" CLOUD TOPS LEADING TO A LACK OF CLOUD ICE POTENTIAL,
AREAS OF PATCHY DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 60, HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED AREAS FURTHER NORTH COULD SEE
SOME DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
ANYWHERE UP TO 100-200 J/KG OF MEAN MUCAPE AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH, LEADING TO SOME CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL AS WELL. THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE FORM OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS, WITH ACCUMULATIONS LESS
THAN 0.10" WEST OF HIGHWAY 65, AND BETWEEN 0.10"-0.25" EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65. A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST TOWARDS SOUTH- CENTRAL MISSOURI, HOWEVER
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR OUR AREA. THE FRONT IS
PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, ENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST.
GUSTY WINDS:
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35MPH OVERNIGHT. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY SHOW
SOME SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 20-25MPH WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AS OF 2PM.
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH IN THE MORNING, WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40MPH THROUGH
THE ENTIRETY OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. ECMWF SHOWS A WIND
GUST EFI BETWEEN 0.8-0.9, HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIALLY ANOMALOUS
WINDS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DEBATED ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY FOR
OUR WESTERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES, HOWEVER DECIDED AGAINST IT
FOR NOW. BUFKIT HREF MOMENTUM TRANSFER KEEPS GUSTS BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA, WITH NBM 90TH PERCENTILE ALSO KEEPING THINGS
RIGHT AT OR BELOW CRITERIA. IT'S GOING TO BE CLOSE, WITH
ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES OF GUSTS >45MPH RANGING BETWEEN 50-75%
ALONG/WEST OF I-49. THEREFORE, CAN'T FULLY RULE OUT AN ADVISORY
BEING ISSUED WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS:
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE MORNING, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT, WITH DRY AIR FILTERING IN. AS A RESULT, RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BEGIN TO DROP, WITH MINIMUM RHS IN THE
35-55% RANGE EAST OF HWY 65, AND THE 25-35% RANGE WEST OF HWY 65
(LOWER IN FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS). THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE I-49 CORRIDOR AND WEST. THIS IS WHERE THE LOWER RHS AND
HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED. HREF JOINT PROBABILITY OF RH <25% AND
WIND SPEEDS >20MPH (RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA) CONTINUE TO
SHOWCASE A 50-60% PROBABILITY OVER THE WESTERN 2 TIERS OF
COUNTIES IN OUR FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY, SPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED
THIS AREA IN AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK, WHICH ISN'T AS
COMMON FOR OUR CWA, AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SIMILAR TO THE WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL, CONFIDENCE IN RED FLAG
CRITERIA BEING MET REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES, HOWEVER WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS WE HEAD
INTO TONIGHT/TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY:
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE SLIGHTLY DELAYED BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, ALLOWING AFTERNOON HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S, POTENTIALLY REACHING 60 ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MO/AR
BORDER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 214 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
THE COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVES BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE REGION, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. WINDS
SHOULD BE SETTLED DOWN BY THIS TIME, HOWEVER SOME RESIDUAL
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS DIPPING INTO THE
TEENS (PRIMARILY EAST OF HWY 65) AND LOW 20S.
AFTER AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S ON FRIDAY, ZONAL
FLOW WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS, LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS (PRECIP. CHANCES <10% THROUGH
AT LEAST NEXT WEDNESDAY), AND TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK UP WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST WED DEC 17 2025
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO MVFR, AND
POTENTIALLY IFR AT TIMES, FROM 01-16Z. CURRENT SATELLITE AND
OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW 3-4 KFT STRATOCUMULUS MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR SHORTLY AFTER THE 00Z
START OF THE TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. BASED ON CURRENT GROUND
OBSERVATIONS, THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE REACHING THE SURFACE AS
OF YET, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY AT BBG AND MAYBE SGF.
FORECAST CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 1 KFT, WITH A
40-70% CHANCE FOR IFR CIGS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 04-10Z WHERE
TEMPO GROUPS ARE PLACED. AT AROUND 10-12Z, LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA (60-70% CHANCE AT SGF
AND BBG, AND 30-40% CHANCE AT JLN), ONLY IMPACTING SITES
THROUGH 14-16Z. AFTERWARDS, A FROPA WILL OCCUR, CLEARING SKIES
AND SHIFTING WINDS.
SPEAKING OF WINDS, THIS WILL ALSO BE AN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE
WHOLE PERIOD AFTER 04Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35 KTS AFTER 04Z, SHARPLY SHIFTING TO
NORTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 11-16Z WITH THE FROPA. A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
WINDS MAY THEN BE EXPERIENCED TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 20-25 KTS, AND GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KTS AT
TIMES.
LASTLY, WITH A STRONG 55-65 KT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT, 40-50 KT LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 04-12Z, JUST BEFORE THE FROPA.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...PRICE
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