371
FXUS63 KSGF 201841
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
141 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) SEVERE RISK LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING FOR AN AREA NORTHWEST OF I-44. THE PRIMARY RISK IS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) SEVERE RISK SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. PRIMARY RISKS ARE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. A SECONDARY RISK FOR A FEW
TORNADOES.
- A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) TO MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF 4) EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. A FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 7 AM
MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
BLUF:
THERE WILL BE A ROUGHLY 24 HOUR WINDOW OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING PERIOD ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS, A FLASH FLOOD RISK IS ALSO APPARENT.
SUNDAY MORNING:
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HAS HELPED
TO INITIATE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND INTO AN MCS AND DIVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ALONG A WARM FRONT THROUGH IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT, LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
54 MAY BE CLIPPED BY THIS MCS SUNDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN
QUITE VARIABLE IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE MCS
AND HOW MUCH (IF ANY) CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT/TROUGH THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM THE PARENT LOW
THROUGH THE PLAINS. MPAS MODELS TEND TO BE THE MOST BULLISH AND
BRINGING A LINE OF CONVECTION INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI, WHILE OTHERS TEND TO DISSIPATE THIS ACTIVITY
AS IT OUTRUNS THE 850 MB JET AND HIGHER INSTABILITY. IF STORMS
ARE ABLE TO REMAINED ORGANIZED, A MARGINAL WIND THREAT MAY
EXIST, MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS ACROSS FAR WESTERN MISSOURI AND
EASTERN KANSAS.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING:
MODELS SHOWS A GENERAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTION FROM THE
OVERNIGHT MCS SUNDAY MORNING. EXACTLY WHERE SHOWERS AND STORMS
TRACK, HOW QUICKLY (OR IF) THEY DISSIPATE, AND HOW MUCH COVERAGE
LINGERS WILL AFFECT HOW MUCH THERMODYNAMIC RECOVERY CAN OCCUR
DURING THE DAY AND WHERE THE AFTERNOON/ EVENING RISK WILL
MANIFEST. ONE OR SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY EXIST
ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI, WHICH WILL ACT AS THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN STEEP FORECAST MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR,
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO GOLF BALLS, 60-70 MPH
WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WHEREVER
INITIATION OCCURS, STORMS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND DRAGS ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SUNDAY NIGHT:
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DIVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WAVE COULD HELP REINVIGORATE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE
IT CLEARS THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER AND INTRODUCE A LINGERING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI. OF COURSE,
THIS THREAT ACTUALLY COMING TOGETHER IS DEPENDENT UPON A NUMBER
OF PRIOR CONVECTIVE OCCURRENCES AND MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS, SO
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
FLASH FLOOD RISK THROUGH SUNDAY:
THE STRONG 850 MB JET ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS WILL PUMP MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR WITHIN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO VARY QUITE
SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PLACEMENT OF HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS GIVEN
THE MULTITUDE OF SOLUTIONS IN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. AS SUCH, IT IS DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE THE FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS,
BUT GIVEN THE SATURATED ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM RECENT
RAINFALL, ANY LOCATION THAT EXPERIENCES TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE COMMON, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 INCHES.
THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM MONDAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS DEPICT GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BUILDING AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK, LEAVING
THE MISSOURI OZARKS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACROSS ARKANSAS. OVERALL, THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR MORE DRY TIME THAN NOT THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS DO SUGGEST SOME WEAKLY FORCED
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH THE PASSING OF
TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE IMPULSES AS EVIDENCED BY NBM POPS OF 25-50%,
BUT THESE CHANCES WILL MORESO BE NEAR-TERM FORECAST CHALLENGES
THAT WILL HAVE TO BE BETTER ASSESSED IN FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE COVERAGE IS
GREATER, SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOPED.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL.
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL TRACK THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MISSOURI TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS
COMPLEX SAGS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND IMPACT THE
TERMINALS AROUND 12Z, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE CURRENT TAFS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
KSZ073-097-101.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
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