750
FXUS63 KSGF 052341
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
541 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS COULD START BETWEEN 3-6PM ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL
BE TWO ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH SUPERCELLS AS THE FIRST
ROUND AND A QLCS (LINE OF STORMS) THREAT EXPECTED FOR THE
SECOND ROUND. SECOND ROUND TIMING IS AROUND 8-11PM.
- TORNADO THREAT IS THE GREATEST OVER FAR SW MO BUT TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE WHOLE AREA. DAMAGING WIND THREAT UP TO 70
MPH AND 2-3" HAIL ARE ALL POSSIBLE.
- LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY NIGHT UNDER THE
STRONGEST STORMS. A FEW STORMS COULD HAVE RAIN RATES OF
1-2"/HR WHICH WOULD CAUSE FLOODING WITH OUR 1-2" FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE AREA.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH TUESDAY OUTLOOKED BY SPC.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND OVERCAST SKIES HAVE BEEN PRESENT FOR
MOST OF THE DAY. VISIBILITIES HAVE STARTED TO IMPROVE BUT CIRRUS
FROM THE STORMS IN AR MIXED WITH ALTOCUMULUS FROM THE STATIONARY
FRONT WILL KEEP US CLOUDY FOR MOST OF TODAY. CLOUDS DO BEGIN TO
BREAK UP LATE THIS EVENING LEAVING US WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TONIGHT. THE LOW-LEVEL JET GETS CRANKING ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT AND COMBINED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT, WILL BRING US
A 30-50% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. ONLY GENERAL THUNDER
IS OUTLOOKED FOR TONIGHT AND THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR STORMS
WILL BE OVER IN EASTERN KS. THEREFORE, NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER.
WE WILL BE EXPECTING SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE 70S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY
CLOUDY DURING THE DAY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO
35 MPH BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THE STORM MODE TOMORROW WILL
BE MIXED MODE WITH SUPERCELLS KICKING OFF OUR SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND A QLCS MOVING THROUGH CLOSER TO 10PM. WE
HAVE PUSHED BACK THE TIMING JUST A TAD AS MODELS ARE COMING IN A
BIT LATER THAN YESTERDAY. WE ARE ALSO DIFFERENTIATING BETWEEN
ROUND 1 AND ROUND 2 IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND LISTING
UNCERTAINTIES. TIMING IS A BIT STILL UNCERTAIN AS WELL SINCE
THIS IS ALL BASED ON THE DRY LINE OVER IN CENTRAL OK.
MIXED MODES CAN LEAD TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST
ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE TWO ROUNDS OF STORMS LIKE WHAT'S
EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOMETIMES THE SUPERCELLS CONGEAL AND CUT THE
ENERGY OFF FROM EACH OTHER EVEN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
THEN, THEY EAT UP ALL THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AND LEAVE A MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS TO MOVE
THROUGH. IF THAT OCCURRED, THE QLCS WOULD BE ON THE LOWER-END OF
THE SEVERE THREAT. ROUND 1 COULD IMPACT ROUND 2, AND THAT'S
SOMETHING TO BE MINDFUL OF GOING FORWARD AS THERE COULD BE A
BREAK BETWEEN THE ROUNDS OR THEY COULD CATCH UP TO EACH OTHER.
THOUGH, EVEN WITH THE STORM MODE UNCERTAINTIES, WE WILL STILL
HAVE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE AS WE HAVE ABUNDANT SRH (~400 M2/S2) AND SHEAR (~40
KTS) AND MLCAPE (~1500 J/KG) WITH 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AT 7-7.5
C/KM BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THOUGH, THESE VALUES ARE FROM A
MODEL SOUNDING OVER BARRY CO WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TORNADOES WILL BE. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
SURFACE WINDS TO SEE IF THEY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADO
DEVELOPMENT AS THEY'RE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE 180 DEGREES
DIRECTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH. A SOUTHEAST/SOUTHWEST FLOW WOULD BE
MORE FAVORABLE, BUT ALL HAZARDS ARE STILL EXPECTED AS THE
HELICITY, SHEAR, AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING US
SEVERE WEATHER. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS NUDGED THE
ENHANCED RISK (3/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER A BIT FURTHER EAST AND
NOW INCLUDES GREENE, WEBSTER, POLK, AND MOST OF HICKORY COUNTY.
THE TORNADO OUTLOOK WAS UPGRADED A BIT AND IS MOST FAVORABLE
OVER FAR SW MO WITH SUPERCELL TORNADOES MORE LIKELY OVER THAT
AREA, BUT NOT ZERO EVERYWHERE ELSE AS A QLCS CAN STILL BRING A
SPIN-UP TORNADO THREAT. THE HAIL OUTLOOK WAS ALSO UPGRADED AND
THE GREATEST THREAT FOR 3" HAIL WILL OCCUR WEST OF HIGHWAY 65
(WHERE THE SUPERCELLS ARE MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR) AND AREAS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 65 ARE STILL OUTLOOKED FOR HAIL UP TO 2". THE
DAMAGING WIND OUTLOOK WAS PULLED BACK A LITTLE FURTHER WEST, BUT
WE ARE STILL MESSAGING UP TO 70 MPH WINDS.
ANOTHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT IS FLOODING. WE HAVE ALREADY
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS TODAY OF ROAD CLOSURES AND LOW-WATER
CROSSINGS FLOODED JUST FROM THE STORMS YESTERDAY. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS 1-2" AND THE SOILS ARE MOIST. TOMORROW'S FLOOD
THREAT WILL BE MORE RAIN RATE DRIVEN SINCE THE EVENT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKER THAN THE STORMS WE SAW YESTERDAY WHICH
MEANS LESS TRAINING OF STORMS. FLOODING WILL OCCUR UNDER THE
STRONGEST STORMS AND THAT'S WHY IT WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD. WPC
FORECASTS STORMS HAVE POTENTIAL TO REACH 1-2"/HR RAIN RATES.
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE MORE LOCALIZED AND WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT.
JUST A REMINDER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN ESPECIALLY DRIVING AT
NIGHT!
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF TO THE EAST EARLY ON SATURDAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S ON SATURDAY AND THE 60S
ON THE SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER ANY LINGERING
RAINFALL ENDS SATURDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY THERE COULD BE A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THE FRONT BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO THE 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE GOING INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AND SPC HAS
OUTLOOKED TUESDAY FOR A 15% RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD HOWEVER SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR AT
JLN ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING INTO JOPLIN CLOSER TO 09Z FRIDAY HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK TO ARRIVE TO THE SITES
JUST AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS AT LEAST 25KTS. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY AT THE SITES OVERNIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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