572
FXUS63 KSGF 232304
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
604 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO WESTERN MISSOURI
THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM LONG THE
NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BORDER. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME
LIGHTNING IN THE CELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND DOWN INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL.
THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND SOUTHERN IOWA ON SUNDAY, WITH THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WARM/MOIST AIR GETS PULLED
NORTHWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT ONLY THREAT WOULD BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING DECREASING ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. WITH THE
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS, MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESULTING IN
INCREASED SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION, WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF 40 TO 45
KNOTS EXPECTED. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL PROGGED ML CAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 500-1100 J/KG (SREF MEAN AROUND 850 J/KG FOR
SPRINGFIELD) AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 44 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, BUT CURRENT
INDICATIONS WOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE PRIMARILY
HAIL GIVEN FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INITIALLY, WITH POSSIBLY
WIND POTENTIAL AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO MORE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. NAM
PROGS 0-3 SHEAR NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT SPC
DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS UPGRADED PORTIONS OF OUR AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK,
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BRANSON TO ROLLA, WHERE FRONT WILL
LIKELY BE LOCATED DURING PEAK HEATING.
OVERALL, SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA, WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS AND NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETTING UP THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOWING A RATHER DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PROFILE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH 0-1KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES OF 90 PERCENT OR GREATER AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER, LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT IS INDICATED IN THIS
SATURATED LAYER, SO AT MOST WOULD ONLY EXPECT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR
PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH A MAINLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY, HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID
50S.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND WE GET BACK INTO A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO INDICATE A SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ITS OVERALL STRENGTH. OVERALL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, SHOWERS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART
OF THE EVENING. RAIN WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS INTO MVFR RANGE AND
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION, WITH THE PREDOMINANT WIND DIRECTION
OVERALL FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WAS MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...RABERDING
LONG TERM...RABERDING
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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