079
FXUS63 KSGF 141821
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
121 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RESIDUAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOLLOWING
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST 36 HOURS.
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
- 15-30% RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
FLOOD WATERS ACROSS THE OZARKS WERE SLOWLY RECEDING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BUT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AS A RESULT OF HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWED THE BACK EDGE OF
LINGERING CLOUD COVER OVER AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-44 BEHIND THE PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION LAST NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WERE OCCURRING ON
THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS BUT AS CLOUDS CONTINUE SOUTH, SO
WILL THE LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST
TO HAVE MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY PATCHY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS REMAINING INTO THIS EVENING.
AN COOL CANADIAN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WHICH WILL HELP
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON THE THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY EVENING BEFORE
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO SHOVE IT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL AGAIN BE IN THE
70S.
WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE TONIGHT, SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR,
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT, AROUND 5 MPH, AND LINGERING MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN. THIS SET UP MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
TO DEVELOP. THIS MAY OCCUR IN VALLEYS AND LOW AREAS SHELTERED
FROM WINDS. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, VISIBILITIES MAY FALL BELOW 3
MILES AT TIMES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE OZARKS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE OZARKS REGION. MODELS AND ENSEMBLE THEN BRING SOME RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WITH THE FRONT SLOWING, STALLING AND WASHING OUT ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI. PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS HAVE 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES FOR UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN WITH THIS FROM AND
40-50 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH OF AN INCH. COMPARED TO
THE PAST 36 HOURS, THIS WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND IS NOT EXPECTED
TO HAVE ANY IMPACTS.
THE WASHED OUT BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTER INTO THE OZARKS FOR WEDNESDAY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS FROM 30 TO 40MPH NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. WITH SATURATED SOILS AND IF ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS
OCCUR, SOME TREES MAY BE IMPACTED. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A MORE
ROBUST COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINING WITH IT
THE NEXT POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REGION. THIS WILL
OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 80S THANKS
TO LOW LEVEL WARM AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION.
IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT, A WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
PLAINS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE OZARKS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES FOR > 2,000 SBCAPE
AND > 3 KTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINED IN THE 40-70% RANGE FROM
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHER ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS ALSO
HIGHLIGHTING THIS PERIOD FOR SEVERE WEATHER. CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW BUT WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OZARKS BEHIND THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES IN THE WINGS
FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
OVERALL, WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK SEEING HIGHS NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
LOW CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL
INITIALLY BE MVFR FOR THE REGIONS TERMINALS, BUT WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR THIS EVENING AS CLOUD COVER SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT WITH WINDS DROPPING OF TO 5MPH OR LESS BY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, PATCHY FOG MAY BE A
FACTOR MONDAY MORNING BUT CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
LOCATION KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page