799
FXUS63 KSGF 291113
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
513 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS WILL BE 20-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40
MPH POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BY THE EVENING, WINDS WILL FALL
OFF TO 10 MPH OR LESS.
- MUCH COLDER THIS MORNING, WITH SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30S DEGREES.
- WARMING TREND FOLLOWS THE COLD START TO THE WEEK UNTIL MID-
WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN AFTER WEDNESDAY COULD LEAD
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 40 AND 60 F EACH DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
SURFACE WINDS GUSTING THANKS TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT PASSAGE. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION WAS ALSO ONGOING WITH TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 50
DEGREES LOWER THIS MORNING THAN YESTERDAY AND MUCH MORE NORMAL
FOR THE END OF DECEMBER.
WINDS WERE GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH SOME READINGS IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI FROM 30 TO 40 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT FOR
THE OZARKS THROUGH 6AM THIS MORNING. THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE OZARKS AND THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO
WEAKEN.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINED WITH THIS MORNINGS LOWS IN THE
TEENS WITH CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 5
TO -5 DEGREE RANGE.
DESPITE CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TODAY, CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL ONLY ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO
NEAR 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLEAR SKIES,
TEMPERATURES STARTING BELOW FREEZING AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OVER THE OZARKS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TEENS AGAIN.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT BUT OTHER THAN KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING, LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL
OCCUR.
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER PATTERN FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS WELL DESPITE THE ADDITIONAL CANADIAN
AIR THAT MOVES INTO THE PLAINS HELPED BY AMPLE SUNSHINE. FOR THE
MOST PART, EXPECTATIONS INDICATE WHAT SHOULD BE AVERAGE HIGHS
AND LOWS FOR THE END OF DECEMBER AND EARLY JANUARY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S.
DEPENDING ON UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES, SOME DAILY VARIATIONS IN
HIGHS MAY OCCUR WITH NBM SPREADS INDICATING A NEAR 20 DEGREE
SPREAD IN SOME CASES. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME DAYS TO LEAN
COOLER AS ANY WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OR SLIGHTLY WARMER IF
A SHORT WAVE RIDGE IS IN CONTROL. AS A RESULT, HIGH MAY RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 60.
DESPITE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHT WIGGLES AND SHIFTS IN
TEMPERATURES, DRY WEATHER WILL BE PREDOMINANT WITH LITTLE TO NO
MOISTURE NOTED IN THE SYNOPTIC FLOW ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 AM CST MON DEC 29 2025
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE OZARKS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE OVER THE REGION BUT WILL
HAVE NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS MORNING WITH SUSTAINED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS FROM 20-30MPH AND GUSTY FROM 30 TO 40MPH. BY
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WINDS WILL FALL OFF TO 10 MPH
REMAINING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-
101.
MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH
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