881
FXUS63 KSGF 022243
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
543 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY AS DAILY HEAT
INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 100 TO 105 DEGREES. LITTLE
NIGHTTIME RELIEF WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS TO CELEBRATE THE HOLIDAY SHOULD MAKE EFFORTS TO HAVE
COOLING AND HYDRATION OPTIONS READILY AVAILABLE.
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
COVERAGE/PROBABILITY IS LESS THAN 30 PERCENT EACH DAY. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AS
THE MAIN RISK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
- ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES (20-60%) WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA AT TIMES FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
WITH THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE TN/OH VALLEY REGIONS. THIS
CONTINUES TO PLACE OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING
PATTERN, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT. ANOTHER TOASTY DAY IS IN
STORE, AS OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES AS OF 1PM IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, WITH PEAK HEATING LEADING TO A FEW MORE
DEGREES ADDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS, TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW
90S. WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S,
THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME HIGH- LEVEL
CLOUDS FILTERING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH A CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF THE CWA.
AS WE CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE (10-30%).
TAKING A LOOK AT THE 12Z SOUNDING, AMPLE INSTABILITY IS IN
PLACE, WITH A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 88 DEGREES (WHICH WE'VE
ALREADY MET IN MOST LOCATIONS). THIS WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH LIMITED COVERAGE AS THEY'LL BE MORE PULSE-
LIKE IN NATURE. 1PM RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS A COUPLE SHOWERS
ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP, HOWEVER ANY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN SUB- SEVERE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50MPH AS THE PRIMARY
THREAT AS STORMS COLLAPSE.
WITH THESE SHOWER/STORM CHANCES BEING DIURNAL IN NATURE, ANY
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY SUNSET, WITH SCATTERED CLOUD COVER
BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S TONIGHT, LEADING TO LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT.
FRIDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR DAY TO TODAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE LOW 90S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S.
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SUMMERTIME PULSE-LIKE THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WITH
COVERAGE/PROBABILITIES REMAINING LIMITED (<20%).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIDGING PATTERN TO OUR EAST WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE AREA, WITH BRIEF PSEUDO-ZONAL
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AREA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH ON SATURDAY, WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AND MOVING
TOWARDS THE OZARKS. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA
HOWEVER, WITH ANY IMPACTS REMAINING VERY LIMITED (<20% IN OUR
FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES). RESULTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
ACTIVITY COULD PUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE MORNING, ACTING AS
A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SIMILAR TO THE ISOLATED
PULSE STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW, ANY STRONGER STORM WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AS IT COLLAPSES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HOT ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, AND HEAT INDICES
IN THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. THE NWS HEATRISK TOOL CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT THE ENTIRE AREA IN EITHER A MODERATE OR MAJOR RISK OF
HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS INTO SATURDAY. WITH THE HEAT CONTINUING
INTO A HOLIDAY IN WHICH MANY WILL BE OUTSIDE, DECIDED TO EXTEND
THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 8PM SATURDAY. THOSE PLANNING ON
SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS NEED TO TAKE THE PROPER PRECAUTIONS TO
STAY SAFE FROM THE HEAT.
SATURDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH
THE PLAINS, LEADING TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT'S PROGGED TO
PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA OVERNIGHT IN THE FORM OF A DEVELOPED MCS.
THERE'S A CHANCE (20-50%) THAT THIS COULD REMAIN INTACT BY THE
TIME IT REACHES US BEFORE SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING, IN WHICH A
MARGINAL SEVERE RISK (WITH DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60MPH AS THE
MAIN HAZARD) WOULD BE ON THE TABLE. THERE'S STILL MANY
UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, AS THIS WOULD BE
DETERMINED BASED ON WHERE STORMS CAN DEVELOP, SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE ASSESSING THIS POTENTIAL WITH FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK,
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES LOOK TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA,
BRINGING 20-50% DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOW CHANCES (<20%) OF AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM UNTIL ROUGHLY 02Z, HOWEVER WITH CONFIDENCE IN THE
COVERAGE/ANYTHING AFFECTING THE TERMINALS REMAINING LOW, DECIDED
TO KEEP OUT OF THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS, WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT OVERNIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...MELTO
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