054
FXUS63 KSGF 011140
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING 40-80% CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44 (TURNING TO ALL SNOW IN THE EVENING),
WITH MAINLY SNOW NORTH OF I-44. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS IS LIMITED, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME AREAS TO ONLY SEE
TRACE AMOUNTS. LITTLE TO NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS EXPECTED.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES TRENDING UPWARD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, CURRENTLY AT 30-40%. MODEL SPREAD IS CURRENTLY STILL
TOO HIGH TO PUT ANY CERTAINTY TO FORECAST PRECIPITATION TYPES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
CURRENT INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT TWO SYSTEMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WELL. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NE/KS WHERE THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET
STREAK IS CURRENTLY SITUATED. THE SECOND SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING
ACROSS EAST TX BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A SEPARATE
JET STREAK STRETCHED ACROSS THE GULF STATES. SANDWICHED IN
BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS, A RIBBON OF DRY AIR CAN BE SEEN ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN NM UP THROUGH THE OZARKS.
BOTH SYSTEMS HAVE COOLED CLOUD TOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS,
PRODUCING STRATIFORM SNOW IN KS/NE, AND STRATIFORM RAIN IN EAST
TX. IN BETWEEN, WHERE THE MID-LEVEL DRY LAYER IS, INFRARED
SATELLITE SHOWS MORE BROKEN LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AS SHALLOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS TYPE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NE INTO
THE OZARKS, STAYING BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL DRY LAYER.
30-40% CHANCE FOR SCATTERED LIGHT WINTRY MIX SHOWERS THIS MORNING:
THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY OVER OK IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO THE OZARKS, STAYING BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL DRY
LAYER. CURRENT MPING REPORTS WITHIN OKLAHOMA HAVE VARIED BETWEEN
SLEET/ICE PELLETS, SNOW, AND SOMETIMES FREEZING DRIZZLE. GIVEN
OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN UNSATURATED DGZ, A
NEAR-SURFACE DRY LAYER, AND THE SATURATED PRECIPITATING LAYER
BETWEEN 800-600 MB (-4 TO -8 C), SNOW DEVELOPMENT
CHARACTERISTICS WOULD POINT TOWARDS COLUMNS AND NEEDLES, WHICH
FALLING THROUGH THE DRY LAYER WOULD SOMETIMES PRESENT ITSELF AS
ICE PELLETS OR SLEET AT THE SURFACE. FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ALSO
THEN POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE NEAR-SURFACE AIR BECOMES SATURATED
ENOUGH FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES. THAT'S A LONG WAY OF SAYING THAT
THESE SHOWERS ARE PRODUCING A WINTRY MIX OF PELLETS, SNOW, AND
SOMETIMES FREEZING DRIZZLE.
TIMING:
THESE SHOWERS WILL LIFT INTO SW MO/SE KS EARLY THIS MORNING
AFTER 5 AM AND PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE MID-
AFTERNOON HOURS, CLEARING OUR CWA BY 3-5 PM. FOLLOWING THESE
SCATTERED SHOWERS, A PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR-SURFACE DRY AIR FOLLOWING THESE
SHOWERS, HOWEVER, RECENT RAP RUNS DO SUGGEST A LOW-END CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WITHIN THIS DRY AREA. THIS WOULD
MOST LIKELY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44 BETWEEN 1 AND 6 PM.
ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS:
SINCE THE WINTRY MIX SHOWERS ARE INITIATED IN A SHALLOW LAYER
BETWEEN 600-800 MB, ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE, AND
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOMEWHAT QUICKLY, ANY BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LIGHT AND QUICK LEADING TO LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS OR
IMPACTS. ANY IMPACTS WOULD LIKELY COME FROM FREEZING DRIZZLE,
THOUGH EVEN THEN, IT WOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE ONLY LESS THAN
MINOR DRIVING IMPACTS WOULD OCCUR.
50-80% CHANCE FOR QUICK-HITTING LIGHT SNOW BAND THIS EVENING:
FOLLOWING THE BRIEF DRY PERIOD DURING THE MIDDLE OF THIS
AFTERNOON, THE FIRST JET STREAK WILL PIVOT TO A MORE SSW-NNE
ORIENTATION AND SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL PIVOT THE SNOW
BAND ACROSS NE/KS ALSO TO THE SSW-NNE ORIENTATION AND TRAVERSE
OUR CWA AS LIGHT SNOW. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEEING THIS SNOW IS
TOWARD CENTRAL MO, WHERE THE SNOW BAND IS CLOSER TO BETTER
SYNOPTIC ASCENT WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET OVER NORTH
MO/SOUTH IA/WEST IL. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT AREAS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MO BORDER DO NOT SEE MUCH OR ANY SNOW FROM THIS BAND AS
IT MOVES WEST TO EAST (20-40% CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MO BORDER; 60-80% CHANCE OF NOT SEEING SNOW).
TIMING:
THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO ENTER OUR SE KS COUNTIES BETWEEN 3-5 PM,
REACH THE SPRINGFIELD AREA BY 6-8 PM, THEN THE EASTERN OZARKS BY
9-11 PM, CLEARING THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. WHILE HREF CAMS SHOW
VERY MINOR DIFFERENCES IN EXACT TIMING OF ARRIVAL OF THE BAND,
WHEN IT DOES HIT YOUR AREA, IT WILL LAST ONLY 1-3 HOURS.
ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS:
SINCE THIS SNOW BAND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AND QUICK-MOVING, ONLY
NUISANCE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED IF DRIVING THROUGH THE ACTIVELY
SNOWING AREA. THIS INCLUDES MODEST DROPS IN VISIBILITY, AND SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON THE ROADS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ROAD IMPACTS
INCREASES AS YOU GO NORTH WHERE HREF MEAN PLACES SNOWFALL RATES
AT 0.25-0.5 IN/HR, WHICH IS STILL MEAGER, BUT IS BETTER THAN THE
0.1 IN/HR RATES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44. THIS PAIRED WITH
CURRENT ROAD TEMPS SITTING AROUND 28 F WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATION TO ROADS WHILE IT IS ACTIVELY SNOWING. MELTING ON
ROADS WILL LIKELY OCCUR QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW BAND ENDS.
ACCUMULATIONS ON UNPAVED SURFACES LOOK TO AMOUNT FROM NOTHING,
TO A TRACE, TO 1 INCH OR SO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR AN INCH ALSO
INCREASE AS YOU GO TOWARD CENTRAL MO FOR THE SAME REASONS AS
OUTLINED ABOVE.
ALONG SOUTHERN MO, THERE IS A HIGHER CHANCE (>50%) FOR NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THAN THERE IS FOR A TRACE. ONCE YOU GET TO THE
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR AND NORTHWARD, THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE OF
AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, TODAY WILL BE QUITE CHILLY, HOVERING IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. TEMPERATURES THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
OSCILLATIONS OF BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THE WEEK:
TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE BELOW TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK AS THE JET STREAM STAYS OVER THE AREA, BUT A SOMEWHAT FLAT
RIDGE MOVES OVER FROM WEST TO EAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD, TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY RISE BEFORE ANOTHER COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH. SO, TEMPERATURES TUESDAY START AT THE MID-30S
TO MID-40S, INCREASING TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S WEDNESDAY,
DECREASING TO THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S THURSDAY, BEFORE
WARMING BACK UP INTO THE 40S FOR THE WEEKEND FOLLOWING ANOTHER
SYSTEM. DURING THIS PERIOD, LOWS WILL LARGELY HOVER IN THE 20S,
WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT BEING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S.
NEXT SYSTEM BRINGS A 30-40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LATE WEEK:
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY HAVE NOT INCREASED ANY BIT FROM THE LAST 24 HOURS
OF FORECASTS. TAKING A LOOK AT GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS, EACH
SUBSEQUENT RUN IS FLIP-FLOPPING ON NORTHWARD EXTENT AND TIMING
OF THE SYSTEM. THIS IS A PHYSICAL EMBODIMENT OF THE LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS AT THE MOMENT. EACH CLUSTER HAS
VARYING TYPES, AMOUNTS, AND LOCATIONS OF PRECIPITATION. SO, AT
THE MOMENT, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR ANYTHING FROM RAIN, TO SNOW,
TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION, BUT NOTHING MEANINGFUL CAN BE
DISCERNED FROM EACH SIGNAL AT THIS TIME. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR ANY UPDATES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST MON DEC 1 2025
CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WINTRY
SHOWERS ACROSS OKLAHOMA, WHICH WILL SLOWLY SPREAD OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI TAF SITES. THIS IS THE FIRST OF TWO ROUNDS
AND IT LOOKS TO OCCUR BETWEEN 12-19Z. ANY SHOWER THAT IMPACTS A
TAF SITE WILL BE LIGHT AND QUICK, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL LIKELY BE A MIX OF SNOW, PELLETS, AND SOME FREEZING
PRECIPITATION THAT COULD CREATE SOME SLICK PAVED SURFACES.
THE NEXT ROUND WILL CONSIST OF A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 22-03Z. TIMING IS OUTLINED IN
THE INDIVIDUAL TAFS, BUT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
EXPLICITLY SNOW WITHIN THIS BAND, LIGHTLY ACCUMULATING FOR JUST
A FEW HOURS. WITH THE SNOW BAND, CIGS WILL DECREASE TO MVFR,
BECOMING IFR DURING THE MAIN PORTION OF THE BAND.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BEGIN EASTERLY AT 5-10 KTS, THEN BECOME
VARIABLE AFTER 17Z UNTIL SETTLING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY 00Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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