345
FXUS63 KSGF 202305
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
605 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65 BEFORE 5 PM TODAY. HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLARS AND WIND
GUST UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS, BUT A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 60 ON WEDNESDAY. PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.
- COOLER AND RELATIVELY DRIER FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK, THOUGH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT (30-40% CHANCE).
- THE PATTERN IS STARTING TO LOOK A BIT SOGGY FOR MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WITH DAILY 40-70% RAIN CHANCES AND INCREASING MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH THE AXIS THROUGH THE REGION,
AND A 100+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK OVER THE OZARKS. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW OVER IOWA IS DRAGGING A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH EAST OUT OF THE AREA
BY THE EVENING.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 IN A
MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST. THIS THREAT LOOKS
FAIRLY CONDITIONAL, WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURING WITHIN OUR CWA. THE 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING SHOWS A
FAIRLY DECENT CAPPING INVERSION, WITH A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 83
DEGREES. MUCH OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THAT (HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S), WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SHANNON/OZARK COUNTIES
WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW 80S AS DAYTIME HEATING
CONTINUES. BY EARLY AFTERNOON, RAP GUIDANCE SHOWS MLCAPE BETWEEN
1000-1500 J/KG AND 50-60KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AS THAT JET STREAK
PUSHES OVERHEAD. WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT, THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS
BEING LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH. WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS, HOWEVER THIS WOULD BE THE LESS LIKELY SCENARIO AS
SRH AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR DECREASES. BY THIS EVENING AROUND 5PM, THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS THAT FRONT PUSHES EAST.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION HEADING TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(POTENTIALLY REACHING 80 TOWARDS THE MO/AR BORDER) ON WEDNESDAY, AND
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S (EASTERN OZARKS)
AND INTO THE UPPER 40S (FAR SW MO/SE KS) BY THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES SIGNIFICANTLY
DECREASES, AS THE NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES SHOW A 10-15 DEGREE
SPREAD IN BOTH THE AFTERNOON HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. CURRENT NBM OUTPUT IS STICKING TOWARDS THE LOWER END OF
THAT RANGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S. HOWEVER IF WE
CAN GET MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A WARM FRONT THAT'S
PROGGED TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, TEMPERATURES COULD BE WARMER.
MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, HOWEVER
THERE IS A 30-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A LOW LEVEL JET OVER
EASTERN OK STRENGTHENS THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS WOULD BE MORE OF
A CONDITIONAL SCENARIO, AND WOULD DEPEND ON ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
TO FEED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. SOME CAMS HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY,
HOWEVER OTHERS LIMIT THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION, WHICH WOULD KEEP
THINGS DRY. IF THIS DOES COME TO FRUITION, ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF
AT LEAST 500 J/KG COULD DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA, WITH RAP GUIDANCE
SHOWING DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 50-70KTS. THEREFORE, ISOLATED
ELEVATED SUPERCELLS COULD POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. BUT AGAIN, THIS
IS A CONDITIONAL SCENARIO, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY CONVECTION.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
AS WE HEAD INTO MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE PLAINS, WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTING UP TO OUR SOUTH. LEE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPING OVER
THE ROCKIES WILL ALLOW FOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF A NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JET, WHICH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OVERTOP THE WARM FRONT. THIS
PATTERN, COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY, WILL ALLOW FOR DAILY
CHANCES (50-60%) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BRINGING A WET
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THE CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES OF 72-HOUR QPF
IS AS FOLLOWS:
>0.50": 65-85%
>1.00": 50-65%
>2.00": 25-45%
>4.00": 10-20%
THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL (1 OF 4) RISK ON FRIDAY AND THE ENTIRE AREA IN A
SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. WE'LL
CONTINUE TO HONE IN ON SPECIFIC DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS
TIMEFRAME, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH THAT IT WILL BE
A WET HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MAKE SURE TO KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU'RE PLANNING ON PARTICIPATING IN ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES, ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND CREEKS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, SCATTERED CUMULUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KTS AT THE ONSET OF THE TAFS
SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AT LESS THAN 8 KTS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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