943
FXUS63 KSGF 042340
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
540 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT, MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I-44. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN
WITH HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS THE MAIN RISKS.
- A BAND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF I-44
TODAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING WHERE LOCATIONS RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST RAIN.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SEVERE STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS,
DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO RISK WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 132 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT WITH TWO EVIDENT CIRCULATIONS ONE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE NEXT ENTERING THE WEST COAST. A SURFACE FRONT WAS
BISECTING THE CWA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. A BAND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED SUB-SEVERE
ALTHOUGH WE HAD SOME ELEVATED HAILERS PRODUCING JUST OVER
QUARTER SIZE HAIL EARLIER IN THE MORNING. THE ONLY AREA WHICH
HAS NOT RECEIVED ANY PRECIPITATION YET HAS BEEN IN OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA AND IS THE ONLY LOCATION THAT HAS ANY SURFACE
BASED CAPE CURRENTLY. WE STILL DO HAVE SOME ELEVATED CAPE
EXTENDING FURTHER BACK INTO THE CWA AND CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE LARGER UPDRAFTS. TEMPERATURES WERE
RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S WHERE THE RAIN HAS NOT OCCURRED
YET(MAINLY IN HOWELL, SHANNON AND OREGON COUNTIES) AND UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING: CONVECTION EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OK AND THE NEXT AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HREF PROGS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THOSE COUNTIES WHICH HAVE NOT HAD ANY
RAINFALL YET WHERE CAPES >500 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR >30 KTS
COEXIST WITH GREATER THAN 50% PROBABILITY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BEHIND THE SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH THE
MAIN UPPER WAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AND CAN'T
RULE OUT SOME ELEVATED HAILERS BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THOUGH WILL BE OVER OUR FAR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE CURRENT AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WHICH IS
SOUTHEAST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR WILL ALSO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OVERNIGHT, THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE EXITING COMPLETELY OUT OF THE CWA.
SEVERE CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
ALTHOUGH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: THE SURFACE FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT TOO
FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO DIG OVER THE 4 CORNERS
REGION AND EVENTUALLY CUTOFF WITH DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID AND
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS WITH SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHERN
INTO CENTRAL PLAINS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
BY LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, STRONG JET ENERGY AND
INCREASED INSTABILITY AHEAD OF ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
INITIATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MS VALLEY INCLUDING OUR CWA. IT LOOKS
LIKE ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM IN ADDITION TO THE CHANCE OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND
TO REMAIN DRY, HOWEVER THE CUTOFF LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO
LIFT OUT AND TRACK EAST WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT
SGF AND BBG. CEILINGS AT BBG AND SGF WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT
IFR/LIFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH FOG FORMING AS WELL. JLN IS A
LITTLE LESS CERTAIN HOWEVER SHOULD SEE GRADUAL DROP BACK INTO
IFR OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO WEST
NORTHWEST AT SGF AND JLN. BBG WILL START OUT WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS WITH A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL MOVE OUT
THURSDAY MORNING HOWEVER IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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