092
FXUS63 KSGF 300829
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
329 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STATIONARY FRONT WILL PRESENT 30-60% CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 INTERMITTENTLY
TODAY. A COUPLE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO
40-50 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.
- HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (40-80%) OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY,
MAINLY EAST OF I-49. ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE INCLUDING HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER/MIDDLE 80S AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
RESIDUAL SHOWERS FROM THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT'S POSITIONED
BELOW THE STATE LINE ARE CONTINUING TO DIMINISH EARLY THIS
MORNING. WHAT'S LEFT IS SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE BETTER CONVECTION OCCURS CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE CO/KS BORDER. TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 70S WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. A FEW PLACES IN SE
KS DID END UP HITTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA YESTERDAY, (HI AT
105 DEGREES OR HIGHER) BUT WITH THE RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY COMBINED WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES,
WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY TODAY. THE
UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH WITH THE CLOUDS LINGERING AROUND. THERE
MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES HITTING OVER 105 DEGREES
TODAY. THOUGH, IT WILL STILL FEEL WARM OVER SE KS/SW MO AS THE
HEAT INDEX COULD STILL REACH THE LOWER 100S. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL BE IN THE 90S. AS FOR RAIN TODAY, THE SYNOPTIC/
MESOSCALE SET UP WILL LOOK SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. ANOTHER SMALL
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA WITH BETTER MOISTURE (SE KS/SW MO).
THIS AREA IS ALREADY SEEING DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WHICH IS ALMOST
10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN AREAS OVER IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE (30-60%) THIS MORNING OVER THAT AREA
AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. NO
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED, AND NOT EVERYONE WILL SEE
RAIN. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AND MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND LIGHTNING.
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN AFTER SUNSET, BUT THEN RAIN
CHANCES RETURN OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN MO AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO
40-80% OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL LINGER THROUGHOUT FRIDAY AND
BRING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY
60. EVEN WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING MOSTLY NORTH,
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL STILL BE PRESENT MOSTLY
EVERYWHERE IN OUR AREA. THINK OF THIS SYSTEM AS TWO WAVES FOR
FRIDAY. WE'LL HAVE THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH AND BRING US RAIN
IN THE MORNING, THEN WE'LL HAVE THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT COME
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON, AND THAT'S WHERE OUR SEVERE RISK IS
MENTIONED. SPC STILL HAS A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ISSUED FOR MOST OF OUR AREA EXCLUDING THE SE KS
COUNTIES. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH A
TORNADO OR TWO, 60 MPH WINDS, AND HAIL UP TO PING PONG SIZE
(1.5") IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THESE HAZARDS ARE PRIMARILY FOR
ANY SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONCE THE STORM
TYPE CHANGES INTO MORE OF AN MCS-TYPE STRUCTURE, THEN HEAVY
RAIN AND WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THERE IS STILL A BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG THESE STORMS WILL BE BECAUSE THE
BEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR VALUES WON'T NECESSARILY LINE UP
PERFECTLY OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AND THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL
IMPACT THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. BETTER INSTABILITY IS FURTHER
WEST OF THE BETTER SHEAR WHICH IS OUT OVER EASTERN MO. SPC ALSO
MENTIONS THESE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST WHICH IS WHY NO
UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN ADDED, AND MAY NOT BE ADDED IF
NOT DEEMED NECESSARY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY
EXIT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE NEAR
1.0-1.5" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE HIGHER TOTALS WILL
BE PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN MO. WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (2/4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA WHICH LIES NORTH OF HWY
60 AND EAST OF HWY 65.
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA FOR FRIDAY. THERE STILL
IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY ON FRIDAY IF
THE CONFIDENCE IS THERE. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR
SE KS/SW MO.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
TEMPERATURES STEADILY DECREASE THROUGH WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND 80S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME
BREAK FROM THE HEAT ESPECIALLY WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AHEAD OF AND AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH WINDS GUSTING NEAR
30 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. SUNDAY WILL STILL FEATURE BREEZY WINDS
NEAR 20 MPH OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
IN AGAIN ON SUNDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES TAKE THEIR TIME WARMING AS
WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S TO START THE WEEK WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS WE
START AUGUST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
BBG IS AT MVFR THIS EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG IN THE AREA. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH IT CLEARING
NEAR 12Z. VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 1 SM. THE REST
OF THE TAF SITES ARE AT VFR AND WILL SEE BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS NEAR 10 KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AGAIN THIS MORNING FOR SW MO. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER UNTIL 18Z. THEN, A BREAK IN THE RAIN WILL OCCUR BEFORE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN AFTER 20Z AND PERSIST
UNTIL 00Z FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...SORIA
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