367
FXUS63 KSGF 250725
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
225 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM SATURDAY WITH AREAS OF
VISIBILITY DROPPING TO A HALF MILE OR LESS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
- SEVERE WEATHER RISK OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH THE BEST RISK TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
- ADDITIONAL SEVERE RISK LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK
- MAIN SYSTEM WILL PUSH THROUGH MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE
STORMS. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY OF THE SEQUENCE WITH THE
HIGHEST SEVERE RISK.
- LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH TRAINING STORMS THIS WEEKEND
INTO MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH
AN ACTIVE BELT OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY FROM CALIFORNIA
INTO THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI WITH AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT STARTING TO SEE
FOG DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S.
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT: HREF PROBS ARE
SHOWING PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW A HALF MILE IN
THE 30 TO 60% RANGE OVERNIGHT ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER. HAVE
DECIDED TO GO WITH A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM FOR THESE
COUNTIES WITH A NEAR ZERO DEW POINT DEPRESSION AND NEARLY CALM
WIND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE NORTHEASTERN FRINGES
OF THE BEST INSTABILITY. CAMS ARE SHOWING SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING
BY THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING BUT
ANYTHING OVER OUR AREA IS LIKELY TO DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING
IF STORMS REMAIN MORE SCATTERED. IF THEY CAN FORM MORE INTO
CLUSTERS OR A LINE, THEN THE RISK MAY BE MAINTAINED LONGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH MAINLY A WIND RISK.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
A SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE PLAINS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL EXIST ESPECIALLY OVER OUR WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND BEING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISKS.
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
MONDAY. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THIS
SYSTEM WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE BEST SEVERE WEATHER
CHANCES WILL EXIST OVER THE AREA. A SLOWER MOVING SYSTEM WILL
FAVOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WHILE A QUICKER
SYSTEM WOULD FAVOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. AMPLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FOR ALL MODES OF
SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
THERE WILL EXIST A LOCALIZED CHANCE OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE REPEAT HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY.
DRIER WEATHER SHOULD MOVE IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES POTENTIALLY MOVING BACK
INTO THE AREA BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, SOME STRATUS WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA INCLUDING SGF WHILE LIGHT FOG WAS BEGINNING AT BBG. FOR
NOW AM GOING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BOTH PLACES, BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR BBG FOR THE POTENTIAL OF LOWER VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT
WITH A NEARLY CALM WIND AND ZERO DEWPOINT DEPRESSION. NOT A
STRONG ENOUGH SIGNAL TO PUT IN CONVECTION YET FOR TODAY/TONIGHT
WITH MAINLY SCATTERED COVERAGE, HOWEVER IF IT GETS ADDED IN
LATER FORECASTS THE BEST BET WOULD BE NEAR JLN AND POTENTIALLY
INTO SGF.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ082-
095>098-102>106.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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