418  
FXUS63 KSGF 231138  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
638 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
..12Z AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING  
HOURS BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
2. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
ALL FORMS OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE.  
 
3. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY  
MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
4. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MIDWEEK NEXT  
WEEK.  
 
CURRENT MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD  
TOWARDS OUR REGION THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A WARM  
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED TO OUR WEST  
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT INTO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY, ALLOWING  
GULF MOISTURE TO BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. AN INCREASING LOW  
LEVEL JET IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION,  
FURTHER ASSISTING IN THE MOISTURE CONTENT. AS A RESULT, SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGAN DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, AND WILL  
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
 
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS,  
AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE  
FRONT. WITH THESE STORMS, HAIL WILL BE THE BIGGEST RISK, AS WELL  
AS A POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THE HIGHEST  
PROBABILITIES OF THESE OCCURING WILL BE NORTH OF US.  
 
AFTER THE MORNING HOURS, THE LLJ WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY BEFORE STRENGTHENING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS  
THE WARM FRONT LIFTING OUT OF OUR AREA IN THE LATE EVENING HOURS,  
PUSHING US INTO THE WARM SECTOR AND AIDING IN FUTURE INSTABILITY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 143 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING:  
AN UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL BEGIN  
PROPAGATING EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON  
SUNDAY BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  
AHEAD OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, WINDS WILL BEGIN TO  
INCREASE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL  
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE  
MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS, THE WARM SECTOR WILL ALLOW AMPLE AMOUNTS  
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO FURTHER INCREASE INSTABILITY.  
 
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH  
THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH STORMS DEVELOPING  
ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS SHOW STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATE CAPE  
VALUES, WITH GENEROUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AS  
INSTABILITY FURTHER INCREASES. THIS SEEMS TO PROMOTE THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS TO THE WEST OF US ALONG THE FRONT IN  
EASTERN KS AND NE OK. AS THE FRONT FURTHER PUSHES EAST AND APPROACHES  
THE REGION, THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER THESE SUPERCELLS WILL  
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH INTO THE CWA, OR CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE  
OF STORMS. IF THE SUPERCELLS BECOME THE PREDOMINATE TYPE, THEN  
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL WOULD POSE A THREAT.  
HOWEVER, IF MORE OF A LINE OF STORMS DEVELOPS AND PUSHES THROUGH,  
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATER THREAT. THE SPCS DAY 2 OUTLOOK  
CURRENTLY HAS US IN AN ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER RISK, AND THE  
INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER  
TO BE POSSIBLE.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:  
ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, A COOLER AIRMASS  
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE AS  
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALLOWS FOR DRIER WEATHER TO TAKE  
PLACE. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORTLIVED AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO  
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION, ALLOWING FOR GULF MOISTURE TO  
ONCE AGAIN BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THERE'S STILL A QUESTION  
AS TO WHEN THIS SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA AND HOW INTENSE IT  
WILL BE, AS THE WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS TOOL (WCAT) CURRENTLY SHOWS  
INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLES. REGARDLESS, SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND FURTHER UPDATES WILL BE MADE  
AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.  
 
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE  
DAY FRIDAY BEFORE RIDGING BRINGS HIGHER PRESSURE AND DRIER  
WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
A WARM FRONT IS LIFTING INTO THE REGION, AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO  
SO THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A RESULT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION, AND ARE EXPECTED  
TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING/AFTERNOON. INSTANCES OF MVFR  
AND IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE REDUCED.  
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THIS MORNING THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL SITES.  
 
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, STORMS WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION  
FROM WEST TO EAST. AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE  
AREA INTO TONIGHT, EXPECT WINDS TO PICK UP AND GUSTS UP TO 30  
KNOTS TO BE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  
WITH THIS SYSTEM, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FUTURE UPDATES WILL GO INTO MORE DETAIL  
ABOUT IMPACTS AND FLIGHT CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...SCHWARTZ  
LONG TERM...SCHWARTZ  
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD/SCHWARTZ  
 
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