513
FXUS63 KSGF 201119
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
619 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF PATCHY FOG MAY IMPACT AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-44 THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES BELOW A MILE MAY OCCUR AT
TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTHEAST OF
SPRINGFIELD TO THE 90S ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN (10-20%) ARRIVES SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
SATELLITE AND RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING HAD THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI HAVING MOVED TO THE EAST.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY WITH A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE PATTERN. THIS WILL BRING
SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA, THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL HELP KEEP THINGS DRY TODAY.
LINGERING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 THIS MORNING WILL HELP BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING.
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR PERIODS OF A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES, AND A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED BUT WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MORNING.
THANKS TO THE SURFACE HIGH NORTH OF THE REGION, TODAY IS
EXPECTED TO BY DRY WITH A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM NORTHEAST
(TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 80S) TO SOUTHWEST (TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 90S)
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A WEAK WAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI BUT MOST
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE 60S (NORTHEAST) TO AROUND 70 (SOUTHWEST).
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, AND PERHAPS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. WITH A DECENT 850MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT POSSIBLE, FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WEST
OF SPRINGFIELD. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S ARE LIKELY IN THESE
AREAS, ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS WHERE DROUGHT IS INCREASING.
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO COME IN LOWER WITH MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEPING HEAT INDICIES AT OR BELOW
100. THE NWS HEAT RISK TOOL SHOWS MAINLY MODERATE LEVELS WITH
SOME INCREASE TO MAJOR BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK,
MOST LIKELY DUE TO THE PROLONGED HEAT.
SOME SLIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL IS BEING HINTED AT (20 PERCENT OR
LESS) FOR AREAS INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUED TO TRENDED A LITTLE WETTER, THOUGH DEPENDING ON
TIMING OF WAVES MOVING DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY
DETERMINE WHERE RAIN DOES DEVELOP. IF THE RIDGE REMAINS FURTHER
WEST OF THE AREA, THEN PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE LESS AND MORE
CONFINED WEST OF THE AREA. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DURING THIS
TIME FRAME BUT WILL KEEP WATCHING THE LATEST TRENDS GOING
FORWARD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING. FOG WILL IMPACT KSGF AND AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING. WHERE FOG DOESN'T OCCUR
EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
AREA WIDE AFTER 15Z.
OTHERWISE, SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-
067>071-079>081.
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...HATCH
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