802
FXUS63 KSGF 201018
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
518 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND THIS WEEK, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S ARE LIKELY LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO
PERSIST.
- THE CPC GIVES A 70-80% CHANCE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AREA OF LIFT/ENERGY MOVING EAST OUT OF
MISSOURI WITH ANOTHER AREA MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THE 00Z
KSGF SOUNDING AND SURROUNDING AREA OBS CONTINUES TO SHOW A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE. WHILE SOME SATURATION EXISTS AROUND 15-20KFT,
A LARGE DRY LAYER EXISTS BELOW. NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS ACROSS
THE GULF OF AMERICA ARE NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO RETURN NORTH. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA AT TIMES AND WERE HELPING TO KEEP TEMPS WARMER THAN
THIS TIME YESTERDAY. MANY AREAS REMAINED IN THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS IN
VALLEYS AND WIND PROTECTED AREAS.
FEW SPRINKLES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE WARM: WEAK
LIFT/VORTICITY WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY AND AGAIN EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND A
FEW SPRINKLES/VIRGA AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65.
THESE CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP KEEP HIGH TEMPS FROM OTHERWISE
REACHING HIGHER VALUES. HOWEVER HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH THE
LOWER 70S IN MANY AREAS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 215 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS LATE WEEK/WEEKEND:
ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL
EXPAND NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS UPPER ENERGY MOVES INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 850MB TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE
13-16C RANGE AND THIS COMBINED WITH LESS CLOUDCOVER WILL SUPPORT
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE TEMPS ARE ROUGHLY
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MID/LATE OCTOBER. THIS UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR RAIN CHANCES WITH CHANCES STAYING
BELOW 10 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 15KFT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE PERIOD. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES,
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST, GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page