011
FXUS63 KSGF 041952
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
252 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS
IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, BUT ANY STRONGER EMBEDDED STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER TO GOLF
BALL SIZE.
- NARROW WINDOW FOR LINGERING MARGINAL TO SLIGHT SEVERE RISK
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SPECIFIC
HAZARD PROBABILITIES WILL DEPEND ON COLD FRONT SPEED, BUT ALL
HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH A
WARMING TREND TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. WEEKEND
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING SEVERAL PLUMES OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE WITHIN THE FLOW, MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. UPPER AIR ANALYSES PUT MISSOURI IN BETWEEN BROAD, LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND BROAD, LOW AMPLITUDE
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH. THE TROUGHING TO THE NORTH IS FORCING AN
OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY, WITH AN ATTENDING
COLD FRONT STRETCHING DOWN THROUGH IOWA AND NEBRASKA. WHILE
THERE IS RIDGING ABOVE 500 MB TO THE SOUTHWEST, 700 MB RAP
ANALYSES DEPICT A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NM/TX BORDER THAT IS
FORCING A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH AND DIFFUSE DRYLINE OVER WEST
TX/OK. THE 700 MB SHORTWAVE IS ALSO PRODUCING 850-700 MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER OK, WHICH WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO OUR AREA
TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT AND
700 MB SHORTWAVE WILL BOTH BE OUR WEATHER-MAKERS IN THE SHORT-
TERM, BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (70-90%
CHANCE) ALONG WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLATED EMBEDDED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WIDESPREAD STORMS TONIGHT, POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED SEVERE STORMS:
THE TWO FEATURES MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SEEMINGLY COLLIDE RIGHT
OVER OUR AREA THIS EVENING AND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FIRST AREA
COULD BRING A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MO DOWN
SOUTH INTO OUR AREA ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MANY CAMS HAVE THIS
ACTIVITY FIZZLING OUT AS IT ENTERS OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING,
AS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DECREASES TO 25-35 KTS. THOUGH WITH
LINGERING MUCAPE AROUND 750-1000 J/KG, ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY
COULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTERS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT
AND DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AS A SECONDARY THREAT. THESE
STORMS WOULD ENTER THE HWY 54 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 11 PM AND 4 AM
TIMEFRAME.
THE SECOND AREA OCCURS WITH THE ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION NOSE
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING 700 MB SHORTWAVE. ALL CAMS ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING AT THE LEAD EDGE
OF THE WAA WHERE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE AROUND
750-1500 J/KG WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INCREASING TO A MORE NOTABLE
30-45 KTS. WHILE 1-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE GREATER, MID-LEVEL FLOW IN
THE 2-5 KM LAYER WILL BE RATHER SIMILAR, DECREASING OVERALL
SHEAR. THEREFORE, STORMS ALONG THIS BAND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE
MESSY AND CONGLOMERATE INTO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS (AIDED
BY THE ADDED LIFT FROM THE SOUTHWARD DROPPING COLD FRONT).
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE, ANY STRONGER EMBEDDED
STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO QUARTERS. IF A
SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP AND BE MAINTAINED IN THE MESS-FEST (WHICH
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL BE JUST SUFFICIENT FOR), HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALLS TO LIMES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE FOCUSED
AROUND THE HAIL-GROWTH ZONE WITH STRONG STORM- RELATIVE INFLOW,
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 8-9 C/KM, AND A LARGE HAIL PARAMETER OF
8-10 (RESEARCH SUPPORTIVE OF LIME SIZE HAIL +/- 0.5 INCHES).
WHILE ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL (LESS THAN
QUARTERS) ANYWHERE AND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, THE GREATEST LARGER
HAIL THREAT WOULD BE ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 65, AND ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF I-49, SINCE MUCAPE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY AS
YOU APPROACH THE HIGHWAY 65 CORRIDOR. THIS BAND OF STORMS WOULD
ENTER THE I-49 CORRIDOR AND WESTWARD BY 11 PM TO 1 AM,
OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE AREA TO THE EAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NARROW WINDOW FOR LINGERING SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON:
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME SUB-SEVERE
COME SUNRISE AS HREF MEAN MUCAPE BECOMES A MEAGER 100-250 J/KG.
THAT SAID, LOTS OF LIFT FROM THE COLLIDING SYSTEMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FORCE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 IN THE UPPER 50S.
THE COLD FRONT PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION WILL BE THE MAIN
QUESTION FOR SEVERE RISK TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE MORNING COULD ADD COLD AIR TO THE SYNOPTIC FRONT,
SPEEDING UP ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION WITH WOULD WOULD WASH OUT
ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE RISK DURING THE AFTERNOON SAVE FOR AN
ELEVATED MARGINAL HAILER (QUARTER-SIZE). THIS IS THE HIGHER
CONFIDENCE SCENARIO, CONFINING THE CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK TO
OZARK, HOWELL, AND OREGON COUNTIES WHERE OUR SLIGHT RISK IS
SITUATED.
THAT SAID, THE WARMER-BIASED MODELS DO KEEP OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES CLEAR OF ANY RAIN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY NARROW WINDOW OF DECENT
DESTABILIZATION (750-1000 J/KG SBCAPE FROM THE HRRR/RAP). IF
THIS SCENARIO OCCURS, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR SUPERCELLS, BRINGING AN ALL HAZARDS RISK OF HAIL
UP TO GOLF BALLS, DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH, AND A LOW-END 2%
CHANCE OF A WEAK TORNADO.
THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS WOULD BE A QUICK WINDOW BETWEEN 3 AND
9 PM. START/END TIME WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE COLD FRONT
POSITION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
AS THE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER-
LEVEL JET AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGIN NOSING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT, THOUGH MOST OF OUR MOISTURE WILL HAVE
BEEN PUSHED OUT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SO ASSOCIATED POPS ARE
CAPPED AROUND 30% FOR WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY POST-FRONTAL WINDS DON'T
STICK AROUND FOR LONG, AND BY THURSDAY WE ALREADY START TO SEE
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTING UP AGAIN AS BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE WEST
BEGINS TO PUSH IN. HIGHS IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY INCREASE TO 60S
THURSDAY AND 70S BY FRIDAY.
THOUGH THERE IS A TROUGH ON THE WAY IN, A WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPS US
MOSTLY DRY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AND ALLOWS PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO
ASSIST THE WAA WITH OUR WARMING TREND. WEAK TROUGHING IN THE
NORTHERLY JET MAY INITIATE SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
POPS <20%. ZONAL DEEP LAYER FLOW AND STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
SATURDAY MAY ALLOW SOME AREAS TO REACH THE LOW 80S BEFORE OUR NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXTENDED PROGNOSES ARE NOT INDICATING THAT THIS
ACTIVITY HAS SEVERE POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME, BUT THAT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 18-22 KTS AND GUSTS UP TO 28-32 KTS
AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. CONDITIONS
WILL THEN SOMEWHAT RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS A WARM NOSE LIFTS INTO
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS 04-08Z (20-50% CHANCE), BUT MOST
LIKELY BETWEEN 07-12Z (75-90% CHANCE). WITH THESE STORMS, SMALL
HAIL WILL BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD, BUT IF ANY EMBEDDED STRONGER
STORMS IMPACT THE TAF SITE, HAIL UP TO QUARTERS TO GOLF BALLS
WILL BE A LOW-END HAZARD IMPACT (5% CHANCE).
A COLD FROPA FROM THE NORTH WILL OVERTAKE THE WARM NOSE AT THE
TIME OF STORMS OCCURRING, WHICH WILL SHARPLY SHIFT WINDS TO
NORTHEASTERLY SOMETIME BETWEEN 10-15Z. THE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND WARM NOSE SHOULD PRODUCE NUMEROUS
LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD ALONG WITH
IFR CIGS (70-80% CHANCE).
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...PRICE
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