572  
FXUS63 KSGF 232304  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
604 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO WESTERN MISSOURI  
THIS AFTERNOON WAS LOCATED AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM LONG THE  
NORTHWEST KANSAS/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BORDER. THESE WILL CONTINUE TO  
SPREAD EASTWARD THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE HAS BEEN SOME  
LIGHTNING IN THE CELLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND DOWN INTO  
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS WELL.  
 
THE NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN  
NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND SOUTHERN IOWA ON SUNDAY, WITH THE ATTENDANT  
SURFACE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. SCATTERED  
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE THIS EVENING  
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WARM/MOIST AIR GETS PULLED  
NORTHWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT ONLY THREAT WOULD BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.  
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING DECREASING ACTIVITY LATE TONIGHT,  
ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. WITH THE  
CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS, MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS  
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  
 
AS THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY A MID LEVEL SPEED  
MAX WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESULTING IN  
INCREASED SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION, WITH 0-6KM VALUES OF 40 TO 45  
KNOTS EXPECTED. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEL PROGGED ML CAPE VALUES  
RANGING FROM 500-1100 J/KG (SREF MEAN AROUND 850 J/KG FOR  
SPRINGFIELD) AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT THE  
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF  
INTERSTATE 44 SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS STILL SOME  
QUESTION ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN BE REALIZED, BUT CURRENT  
INDICATIONS WOULD SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL  
MISSOURI. STILL LOOKS AS THOUGH ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE PRIMARILY  
HAIL GIVEN FAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INITIALLY, WITH POSSIBLY  
WIND POTENTIAL AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO MORE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. NAM  
PROGS 0-3 SHEAR NEAR 30 KNOTS BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT SPC  
DAY 2 OUTLOOK HAS UPGRADED PORTIONS OF OUR AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK,  
MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM BRANSON TO ROLLA, WHERE FRONT WILL  
LIKELY BE LOCATED DURING PEAK HEATING.  
 
OVERALL, SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A MILD DAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 60S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS  
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA, WITH  
NORTHERLY WINDS AND NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW SETTING UP THAT WILL LAST  
THROUGH MONDAY. SOUNDINGS SHOWING A RATHER DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
PROFILE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH 0-1KM RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
VALUES OF 90 PERCENT OR GREATER AT LEAST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON  
HOURS. HOWEVER, LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT IS INDICATED IN THIS  
SATURATED LAYER, SO AT MOST WOULD ONLY EXPECT SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR  
PERHAPS A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH A MAINLY  
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY, HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO PERHAPS MID  
50S.  
 
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH A BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM  
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER INFLUENCE FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY  
NIGHT WITH QUIET WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.  
 
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME UPPER FLOW  
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND WE GET BACK INTO A MORE UNSETTLED  
PATTERN. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO INDICATE A SYSTEM LIKELY TO AFFECT  
THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE  
REMAINS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN ITS OVERALL STRENGTH. OVERALL  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND OUT THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)  
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT SAT MAR 23 2019  
 
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, SHOWERS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWA EARLY THIS  
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE THIS TREND THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART  
OF THE EVENING. RAIN WILL BRING LOWER CEILINGS INTO MVFR RANGE AND  
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION, WITH THE PREDOMINANT WIND DIRECTION  
OVERALL FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN  
THE RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH MVFR CEILINGS  
EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS WAS MAIN FRONT MOVES THROUGH.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...RABERDING  
LONG TERM...RABERDING  
AVIATION...LINDENBERG  
 
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