724
FXUS63 KSGF 251955
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
155 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOW 30S.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (70% TO 90%) ARRIVE LATE
FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALL RAIN IS FAVORED
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, BUT WET SNOW MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
DECEMBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST TUE NOV
25 2025
LOW-LEVEL STRATUS BLANKETING MUCH OF THE STATE OF MISSOURI
EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS BEGUN TO CLEAR ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND TO SLOWLY BREAK UP ELSEWHERE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING; BEHIND IT, A COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN. A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES WILL ALSO RESULT IN MODERATELY
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH. AS
SKIES CLEAR, TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
APPROACH THE FREEZING MARK AREAWIDE.
WEDNESDAY AND THANKSGIVING WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE AT SEEING
EXTENDED PERIODS OF SUNSHINE THIS WEEK AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERSPREADS THE PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN AVERAGE DESPITE THE SUN,
HOWEVER, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
PROBABILITIES ARE HIGH (60% TO 100%) THAT OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW 32 DEGREES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST TUE
NOV 25 2025
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
WHILE THANKSGIVING DAY ITSELF WILL BE DRY, THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL BE MARKED BY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. ENSEMBLES
DEPICT A DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT DIGS
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND INTO PLAINS LATE THIS WEEK.
AS IT DOES SO, SYNOPTIC-SCALE LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, MODELS SHOW A LEE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TO
70% TO 90% LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THIS SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
INSPECTION OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS REVEALS ENSEMBLES HAVE REALLY
STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
500 MB HEIGHT PATTERN ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GENERALLY, GEFS
AND CANADIAN MEMBERS HAVE BECOME MORE SIMILAR TO WHAT THE ECMWF
HAS BEEN DEPICTING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES. MORE
SPECIFICALLY, THESE SOLUTIONS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST
AREA IN THE WARM (ABOVE 32 DEGREES) SECTOR WHILE THE COLD AIR IS
SHUNTED NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI, ILLINOIS, AND IOWA.
THE COLDEST AIR IN OUR FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO SPILL INTO
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS AND LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY
63 WHERE CURRENT NBM TEMPERATURES ARE RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK. IN THIS MOST LIKELY SCENARIO, ALL RAIN WOULD BE FAVORED
ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, SNOW WOULD BE
FAVORED ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI, ILLINOIS, AND IOWA, AND A
MIX OF RAIN AND WET SNOW WOULD BE LIKELY IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS.
LIQUID QPF FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY HAS REMAINED FAIRLY
CONSISTENT, GENERALLY RANGING FROM A HALF INCH TO AN INCH. THE
LATEST NBM PROBABILITIES OF SNOWFALL TOTALS GREATER THAN 1 INCH
RANGE BETWEEN JUST 10% TO 20% ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA (THE EASTERN OZARKS). PROBABILITIES
OF ANY SNOW AT ALL ARE IN THE 30% TO 40% RANGE FOR THESE
LOCATIONS. HIGHER PROBABILITIES EXIST AS YOU LOOK TO THE
NORTHEAST. GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE MIXED-IN
RAIN, CHANCES OF WINTER-WEATHER TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE LOW ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, INDIVIDUALS WHO MAY BE TRAVELING
BACK FROM ANY HOLIDAY PLANS WILL NEED TO REMAIN AWARE OF THE
REGIONAL FORECAST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS TO BETTER ASSESS ANY
POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE RISK OF WINTRY WEATHER.
COLD EARLY NEXT WEEK:
THERE IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (AND
PERHAPS WELL BELOW-AVERAGE) TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR INTRUSION
INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS. WHILE NBM INTERQUARTILE TEMPERATURE
SPREADS HAVE DECREASED SOMEWHAT, THEY ARE STILL QUITE HIGH (10
TO 15 DEG) OWING TO MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING ARCTIC AIR INTO THE CONUS.
PROBABILITIES OF HIGH TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 40 DEGREES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE HIGH (70% TO 90%).
ANOTHER FORECAST WRINKLE WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION FROM SATURDAY'S SYSTEM
TO IMPACT OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON
THIS SIGNAL WITH THE 12Z DATA, AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE
DECREASED, BUT THIS SCENARIO WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK TO GAIN FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION AS
WIDESPREAD LOW-LEVEL STRATUS PERSISTS. PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE MAY
ALSO TEMPORARILY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. LITTLE CLEARING IS
EXPECTED UNTIL A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH MISSOURI FROM THE
WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
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