438
FXUS63 KSGF 042018
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
318 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO
SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES 105 DEGREES OR
GREATER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. WIDESPREAD HEAT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE WORSENING DROUGHT AND INCREASING
FIRE DANGER. THOUGH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION CHANCES HAVE
INCREASED SATURDAY EVENING, THEY REMAIN BELOW 20%, AND MOST
WILL STAY COMPLETELY DRY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY, BOOKENDED BY UPPER LOWS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST.
THIS IS RESULTING IN CONTINUED HEAT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BESIDES
SOME FAIR WEATHER CU THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF
THE STATE WHERE STABLE SURFACE AIR HAS MIXED OUT. THERE ARE ACTUALLY
A FEW SMALL SHOWERS JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA IN THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AREA WHERE SOME OF THOSE CONVECTIVE
BUBBLES WERE ABLE TO PRECIPITATE. DON'T ANTICIPATE THIS ACTIVITY
EFFECTING OUR AREA MUCH, THOUGH WE ARE CARRYING A VERY SMALL
AREA OF POPS UP TO 10% IN EXTREME SOUTHEAST OREGON COUNTY ON THE
OFF CHANCE THAT ONE OF THESE DEVELOPS FARTHER WEST.
OTHERWISE, THE STORY FOR TODAY HAS NOT CHANGES MUCH. THOUGH,
PRECISELY FOR THAT REASON, WE HAVE UPGRADED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. SEVERAL OFFICIAL REPORTING
SITES MEASURED HEAT INDEX VALUES 105+ IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON
YESTERDAY AND ARE ON TRACK TO DO THE SAME TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS HEAT TO PERSIST FOR 4 DAYS MEETS
WARNING CRITERIA. WHILE NOT EVERYONE WILL EXPERIENCE A HEAT INDEX
GREATER THAN 105 EVERY DAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WIDE SWATHS PARTICULARLY
NORTH OF THE PLATEAU AND IN OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES ARE
LIKELY TO SEE THESE CONDITIONS. REGARDLESS OF MEETING THE RIGID
CRITERIA EXACTLY, WE ARE DEALING WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MUCH-
ABOVE NORMAL, NEAR-RECORD HEAT THAT HAS HAD SUBSTANTIAL SENSIBLE
IMPACTS ON THE PUBLIC AND PARTNERS. THE NWS HEATRISK TOOL IS MAXED
OUT IN THE EXTREME CATEGORY THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE
PLATEAU AND ALONG THE MISSOURI-KANSAS BORDER. THE WBGT IS HIGH OR
EXTREME OVER THE WHOLE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY, INDICATING THE HIGHEST
LEVELS OF HEAT IMPACT. UPGRADING THE HEADLINES AND USING STRONG
WORDING IS NECESSARY TO COMMUNICATE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT
POSED BY THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT.
OFFICIAL REPORTING STATIONS ARE SPARSE, BUT HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO
103 HAVE ALREADY BEEN ACHIEVED BY 2 PM, AND A FEW MORE HOURS OF
WARMING IS STILL EXPECTED. HEAT TOMORROW IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH THE
SAME. THE BIG CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MAY HAVE MORE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. CAMS HAVE BEGUN
TO INDICATE LOW COVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THOUGH SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE
CAPPING MUST BE OVERCOME (OR FORCING ALOFT MUST BE INTRODUCED) FOR
THIS TO BE REALIZED. POPS THEN FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH
TO THE SOUTHWEST, BUT DO NOT EXCEED 20% DUE TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE
AND LOW COVERAGE. THAT SAID, THIS IS THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WE HAVE SEEN IN SOME TIME, SO IT WOULD BE
UNDERSTANDABLE FOR THIS TO INCITE SOME EXCITEMENT. I WOULD
CAUTION, THOUGH, THAT MOST WILL LIKELY REMAIN COMPLETELY DRY
(AND VERY HOT) THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AND IF IT
MANAGES TO KICK OFF ANY RAIN, THAT MAY BE LINGERING. THE RIDGE
WASTES NO TIME MAKING UP FOR ITS MINOR RETROGRADING AND BUILDS EAST
AGAIN SUNDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-110 ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
THOUGH THE FRONT WILL BE QUITE WEAK, IT DOES SWEEP AWAY SOME OF THE
HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST, AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER FOR MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
THE RIDGE AND SENDS A MORE CLASSIC COLD FRONT OUR WAY. THE DAY 6-7
MODEL OUTPUT IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 35% POPS INTO
CENTRAL MISSOURI WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH 20% ODDS WIDESPREAD ACROSS OUR
CWA BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE
COMING DAYS AS IT IS OUR BEST HOPE FOR ANY RESPITE FROM THE
HEAT, HOWEVER SHORT LIVED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A SCT-BKN CU FIELD IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP WITH BASES AROUND 5-7 KFT. THERE ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
BE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WITH ONLY A 20% COVERAGE
RESULTING IN A ROUGHLY 20% PROBABILITY FOR SITES TO BE IMPACTED.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 4:
KJLN: 102/1954
KVIH: 102/1899
SEPTEMBER 5:
KSGF: 99/1998
KJLN: 103/1998
KUNO: 101/1954
SEPTEMBER 6:
KSGF: 100/1960
KJLN: 101/1954
KUNO: 101/1990
SEPTEMBER 7:
KJLN: 101/1998
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 4:
KSGF: 75/1913
SEPTEMBER 5:
KSGF: 76/1998
SEPTEMBER 6:
KSGF: 76/1925
SEPTEMBER 7:
KSGF: 77/1899
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...TITUS
CLIMATE...NELSON
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