137
FXUS63 KSGF 291703
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE AHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
DAILY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S, AND MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE LIKELIHOOD
OF HEAT HEADLINES NEXT WEEK, WITH MAJOR (3 OF 4) TO EXTREME
(4 OF 4) HEAT RISK EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
- LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS AMPLIFYING A RAPID ONSET DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE (70-80% CHANCE) INTO MID SEPTEMBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT:
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BEGINS TO BUILD EAST TOWARDS THE
REGION TODAY, WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS WILL MARK
THE BEGINNING OF THE NEXT HEAT WAVE OVERSPREADING THE OZARKS,
WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA. A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S PERSIST THROUGH TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH MINIMAL
CLOUDS. DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE, THOUGH REMAIN RELATIVELY
"LOW" IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THIS WILL SUPPORT HEAT
INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT AROUND 100 IN SOUTHEAST KS AND
SOUTHWEST MO THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
60S (EAST) TO MIDDLE 70S (WEST).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
SUNDAY-NEXT WEEK:
AS WE PROGRESS INTO SUNDAY, MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS FURTHER INCREASE
AND EXPAND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. 850MB TEMPERATURES PUSH TOWARDS
21 TO 24 C, WHICH IS HIGHLY ANOMALOUSLY FOR LATE AUGUST AS
DEPICTED IN THE EFI/SHIFT OF TAILS. THIS WILL CORRELATE TO
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOWARDS THE INTERSTATE 49
CORRIDOR PUSHING 100. HEAT INDEX VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 100 TO
105, PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. THIS PRONOUNCED
HEAT WAVE WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15+
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST, IN WHICH AVERAGE HIGHS ARE
TYPICALLY IN THE MIDDLE 80S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RECORD TEMPERATURES AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO
105+ DEGREES WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MINIMAL OVERNIGHT RELIEF
NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THE EXTENT OF
THE EXTREME HEAT IS WELL CAPTURED BY THE NWS HEATRISK PRODUCT,
WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR (3/4) TO EXTREME (4/4) HEAT RISK OVER THE
AREA. THIS OUTLINES THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT- RELATED IMPACTS,
WITH INCREASING CONCERNS AS THE PROLONGED HEAT ENVELOPS THE
ENTIRE AREA NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE HEAT WAVE
REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY OR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE HEAT PERSISTS EVEN
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD, WITH WPC AND CPC
HIGHLIGHTING EXTREME HEAT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WELL INTO
EARLY/MID SEPTEMBER. NBM INTERQUARTILE TEMPERATURES SPREADS
INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CURRENTLY, THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105+ DEGREES
OVERSPREAD THE AREA MID NEXT WEEK. WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE,
HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE MEET CRITERIA OF
GREATER THAN 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR 4 OR MORE
CONSECUTIVE DAYS. CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
MEANWHILE, THIS PERIOD OF EXTREME HEAT WILL BE DRY WITH NO
MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WITH
THIS IN MIND, THERE IS EVEN SOME CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER FOR
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 ON SUNDAY. THIS AREA WILL SEE BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH DRY AND HOT WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN, WILL BE GRASS THAT ARE DRIED
OUT. THE EXTENT AND COVERAGE OF THIS HEAT WAVE WILL FURTHER
AMPLIFY DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA, WITH D1 AND D2 NOW IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO. CPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT CONCERNS FOR A RAPID ONSET DROUGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 30:
KSGF: 101/2000
KJLN: 103/2000
AUGUST 31:
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 100/2000
SEPTEMBER 1:
KVIH: 99/1953
SEPTEMBER 2:
KSGF: 101/2000
KVIH: 99/1899
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
AUGUST 30:
KSGF: 73/2013
KJLN: 76/1945
KVIH: 75/1951
AUGUST 31:
KSGF: 76/2011
KJLN: 80/2011
KVIH: 75/1980
SEPTEMBER 1:
KSGF: 77/1922
KJLN: 80/2011
KUNO: 74/1989
KVIH: 76/2011
SEPTEMBER 2:
KSGF: 76/1922
KJLN: 77/1961
KUNO: 73/1980
KVIH: 75/1898
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...TITUS
CLIMATE...CAMDEN
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