649
FXUS63 KSGF 231050
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
450 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2021
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2021
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS
MORNING AND COOLER/DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. FAIRLY
QUICK ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER CA/NV. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WERE IN THE LOW
20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS.
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EAST TODAY AND WE'LL
GET INTO A MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING
TROUGH AND LOW OUT WEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OUT IN
THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND WE'LL SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND ALSO WEST OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE DRIER
AIR THE LONGEST. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE EASTERN OZARKS AND
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 OUT WEST.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY
LIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SEEING SOME MEASURED
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AND WE HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN
AS SOME SLEET OR MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
RAIN AND LITTLE OR NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND FREEZING TO THE MID 30S IN
THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2021
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY
MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHERN CWA TO THE MID 50S IN THE
SOUTHWEST.
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST
WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MON.
SHOWERS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE WARMER AIR AND
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THE LOW TRACK ON MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA IS NOW A BIT FURTHER
NORTHWEST THAN WHAT WE WERE SEEING YESTERDAY AND COULD SEE SOME
THUNDER FURTHER NORTH AS THE INSTABILITY CREEPS FURTHER NORTH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE
NOW RANGING FROM AROUND 0.75 IN THE NORTHWEST CWA TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LIMITED FLOODING RISK
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LIMITED VEGETATION.
WOULDN'T RULE OUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEHIND THE LOW AS THE COLDER AIR
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHERN
CWA, BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME,
WITH THE BULK OF THE REMAINING QPF STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER RAIN/SNOW CHANCE TO
THE AREA. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE LIGHT WITH A
HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 50S BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 448 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2021
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL
CEILINGS UNTIL THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS, WITH MOST RAIN
AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN. EAST WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 22 TO 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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