886
FXUS63 KSGF 031110
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
510 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION (DRIZZLE,
FREEZING DRIZZLE, AND FLURRIES) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
OZARKS THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN OCCURRENCE OR
IMPACTS.
- AFTER BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW,
TEMPERATURES WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEK AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND
- THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 132 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW:
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE COULD BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
(MO/KS/OK/AR), WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. MEANWHILE, OBSERVATIONS SHOW A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER
NORTHERN MISSOURI DIVING SOUTH.
LOW CHANCE OF FLURRIES OR DRIZZLE THIS MORNING:
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTS CONVERGE, THE RESULTING LIFT WILL
ALLOW FOR LOW-END PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS THIS MORNING. INSPECTION OF MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTS MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION TYPES WOULD BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN THEIR THERMAL PROFILES. THE MAJORITY OF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT, SHOULD PRECIPITATION OCCUR, DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPE,
WHILE THE COLDEST MODELS (A MINORITY) WOULD SUPPORT FLURRIES.
MOISTURE (OR THE LACK THEREOF) REMAINS THE LIMITING FACTOR,
HOWEVER, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERDO 0-1 KM SATURATION. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST GUIDANCE HAS INITIATED AND REMAINED
AROUND 3 TO 5 DEGREES TOO WARM THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE, DECREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THUS, ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO 10 TO 15% FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 63 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 6 AM AND 12
PM TODAY. OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
PRECIPITATION- FREE TODAY.
BRIEFLY COOLER TODAY AND TOMORROW:
NEAR TO BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TODAY AND
TOMORROW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 40S TODAY
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COLDER ON WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTS
OVERHEAD, WITH TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40
DEGREES. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES, HOWEVER, SOME ADDITIONAL
SNOWMELT WILL CONTINUE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 132 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2026
ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM:
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW CONSENSUS IN SHIFTING THE UPPER- LEVEL
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EAST THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HEIGHT RISES AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT A NOTABLE
WARMUP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT OF A
TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. LREF GRAND ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS DO SHOW SOME
DISAGREEMENTS IN EXACTLY HOW FAR EAST THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS;
NOTABLY, GEPS MEMBERS TEND TO FAVOR A FARTHER EAST (WARMER)
SOLUTION, WHILE GEFS AND ENS MEMBERS TEND TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER.
THESE DIFFERENCES CAN BE SEEN IN THE NBM PERCENTILE DATA WITH
AROUND AN 8 TO 10 DEGREE INTERQUARTILE RANGE FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ULTIMATELY, THOUGH, THE
QUESTION IS NOT IF WE WILL WARM UP--BUT RATHER, HOW MUCH. IN
GENERAL, THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AS YOU
LOOK TO THE NORTHEAST. FOR REFERENCE, OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE 44 TO 50
DEGREE RANGE.
NOTABLY, EXTENDED GLOBAL MODELS SUPPORT ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY AS WELL.
INDEED, THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER'S 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK
DEPICTS 70 TO 80% CHANCES OF ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FEBRUARY 10TH TO 16TH PERIOD.
DRY THROUGH MONDAY:
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PATTERN WILL TEND TO STUNT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAIN 10% OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BY DAY 7,
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES DEPICT A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE,
WHICH WILL AT LEAST OPEN THE DOOR TO THE RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE REGION. THIS FAR OUT, OF COURSE, DETAILS ARE SPARSE AND
WILL BE BETTER ASSESSED IN FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY BEFORE BUILDING BACK IN AFTER 00Z. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO 12Z WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE REDUCED CEILINGS IN THE CURRENT TAFS.
WILL WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AT THE START OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...DIDIO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page