455
FXUS63 KSGF 080543
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1243 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (50-70%) FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
WITH HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
- WARMING TREND INCOMING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH
SATURDAY. BRIEF PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES THEN OCCURS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE 70S AND 80S RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER (20-50%)
RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A BELT OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI BORDER, STRETCHING FROM AN OBVIOUS
CLOSED LOW IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA EASTWARD INTO VIRGINIA/NORTH
CAROLINA. THE BELT OF DRY AIR ALIGNS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK AT THE BASE OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE ENTIRE NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST CONUS. RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION DYNAMICS ARE
PLACED OVER OUR REGION, CONTRIBUTING TO SINKING AIR AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES SAVE FOR BOUNDARY-LAYER TURBULENCE CUMULUS.
COOLER TODAY, BACK TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY:
DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES AND RENEWED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, THE COOL
AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL BE SLOW TO DEPART WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S. LOWS WILL STILL BE CHILLY, BUT
A BIT WARMER AS THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ADVECT IN WARMER AIR.
READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S TO THE LOWER 50S, WITH
THE LOWEST READINGS IN THE VALLEYS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS.
INCREASED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH FRIDAY WILL THEN
WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO THE MIDDLE 70S.
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING:
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A CLIPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS
THROUGH THE BACKGROUND NORTHWEST FLOW. THANKS TO THE STRONGER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, MODEST MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS SUCH, THERE IS A 50-70% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HREF PAINTBALLS SHOW THAT ALMOST ALL MEMBERS HAVE SLOWED THE
FRONT PROGRESSION FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE, DELAYING
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION A BIT. THE EARLIEST TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR
AREAS NORTH OF I-44 WOULD BE BETWEEN 2 AND 6 PM, BETWEEN 4 AND 7
PM FOR AREAS ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR, AND BETWEEN 6 AND 8 PM
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-44. CAMS SUGGEST A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WOULD LAST MAYBE UP TO 1-2 HOURS AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION. DUE TO THE WEAK COLD FRONT BASICALLY DISINTEGRATING
AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA, NO DROP IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S.
DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE MEAGER WITH THE
HREF MEAN SHOWING VALUES OF 55-60 F, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE, WITH A NARROW CORRIDOR OF 1000-1500 J/KG
NORTH OF I-44 WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE WILL BE. WITH ENHANCED
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AT 50-60 KTS. THEREFORE, ANY STORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. HOWEVER, THE COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH SHOULD BE WEAKENING, AND WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY,
SEVERITY OF ANY STORM SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY HIGH. SOUNDING
PROFILES SHOW MOST STORMS TO BE ELEVATED (OR AT LEAST HIGH-BASED
DUE TO THE MEAGER MOISTURE). THEREFORE, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. MAXIMUM HAIL
SIZE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. MODEST AND THIN INSTABILITY PROFILES,
WEAK FLOW ALOFT, AND LOWERED STORM DEPTH SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE
STORMS'S MAX HAIL SIZE AROUND QUARTERS. HOWEVER, WITH STRONG
SHEAR AND 6-7 C/KM LAPSE RATES LEADING TO A LARGE HAIL PARAMETER
OF 4-8, ANY SUPERCELL THAT IS ABLE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED COULD
PRODUCE UP TO PING PONGS TO GOLF BALLS. WILL BE A TAD
CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW WITH MAX SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN SUPERCELLS INCREASES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
STRONGER COLD FRONT BRINGS RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT:
ANOTHER CLIPPER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THROUGH THE FLOW SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING A STRONGER SURFACE COLD FRONT
WITH IT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME WITH TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM, WHICH TIES TO INSTABILITY CONCERNS. REFS AND LREF
CONSENSUS SUGGEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE WEAK, BRINGING MAINLY
SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WITH THE FRONT
(20-50% CHANCE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING).
BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY:
THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S SUNDAY NIGHT. CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, BUT SLIGHTLY
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT, WILL RE-INITIATE SOUTHERLY FLOW MONDAY,
BEGINNING ANOTHER WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S
MONDAY.
BACK TO THE 70S AND 80S FOR AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK:
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BARELY BUDGES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
THROUGH THE FLOW, LOCALLY INCREASING HEIGHTS BEFORE BRIEFLY
DECREASING THEM. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT WARM UP WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S.
LREF CLUSTERS SUGGEST THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH
SOMETIME TUESDAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE WAVE IS STILL
IN FLUX. THE LREF JOINT PROBABILITY FOR MUCAPE >750 J/KG AND 0-6
KM SHEAR >35 KTS IS UPWARDS OF 40-60% CHANCE, DEPICTING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR A SEVERE ENVIRONMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER,
ADDING PRECIPITATION VALUES >0.01" TO THE JOIN PROBABILITY DROPS
IT TO 10-20%, SUGGESTING A CAP MAY BE IN PLACE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER, BUT THE
UNCERTAINTIES JUST DISCUSSED LEAD TO CURRENT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT 15-30% TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CEILINGS PERSIST TONIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AND GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS BY
THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF MVFR
CEILINGS MAY OCCUR NEAR AND WITHIN THE HEAVIEST STORMS.
CONVECTION CLEARS OUT NEAR MIDNIGHT AND VFR CEILINGS RETURN.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...SORIA
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