086
FXUS63 KSGF 082350
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
650 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LESS THAN 20% CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. MOST AREAS STAY DRY.
- 30-50% CHANCES OF STORMS THURSDAY, AND 40-70% CHANCE THURSDAY
NIGHT. SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 60 AND EAST OF I-49 THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. PRIMARY HAZARDS INCLUDE DAMAGING WINDS UP TO
60-70 MPH AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. SECONDARY HAZARDS
INCLUDE HAIL UP TO QUARTERS AND WEAK TORNADOES.
- MODERATE HEAT RISK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES LIMIT CONFIDENCE IN EXCESSIVE HEAT OCCURRING.
- 40-75% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH ATTENDANT
LOW CONFIDENCE IN LOCATIONS OF SEVERE AND FLOODING RISKS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER MISSOURI IS
STILL VERY, VERY SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD, CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST
NE OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE
MOISTURE THAT WAS RESIDING WITHIN THE LOW HAS THEREFORE ALSO
SHIFTED EAST, WITH LOCALLY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGING IN DRY
VERY DRY AIR OVER MUCH OF OUR REGION AS NOTED IN OUR 12Z
SOUNDING. DUE TO THE DRIER AIR, DESPITE TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL
LIMIT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BELOW 100 F.
ELSEWHERE, FLOW IS SOMEWHAT MORE ZONAL, MOST NOTABLY WITHIN THE
RELATIVELY STRONGER FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. AT THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER FLOW, A SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS SITUATED OVER NE INTO IA/MN. SOUTH OF MO, A SURFACE
WARM FRONT IS DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF WEAK LEE CYCLOGENESIS
OVER THE OK/TX PANHANDLE REGION.
LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON:
DUE TO THE POCKET OF MOISTURE SITUATED WITHIN THE WEAK CLOSED
LOW ALOFT IN THE BOOTHEEL REGION, WEAK SMALL SHOWERS HAVE FIRED
IN EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL MO. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE HEAT OF THE DAY WITH ONLY A 15-20% CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SAME REGION. GIVEN THE VERY
SMALL AREA OF THESE SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE ISOLATED NATURE,
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON:
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DISSIPATING AS THEY TRANSLATE EAST INTO OUR REGION EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THIS REMNANT COMPLEX THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
(30-50% CHANCE). THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE AS WIND
SHEAR WILL BE QUITE WEAK.
THE COMPLEX WILL CREATE AN MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX THAT WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH MISSOURI DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
RESULTING SUBTLE TURNING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT AHEAD OF THE MCV
WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE SHEAR (GENERALLY NORTH OF HWY 60 AND EAST
OF I-49) WITH LIFT ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW WITHIN THIS REGIME TO
FOCUS NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON (GENERALLY
AFTER 2 PM).
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE IS STILL A BIT VARIED ON THE MAGNITUDE OF
SHEAR WHICH WILL INFLUENCE HAZARDS A BIT, BUT THE HREF MEAN
SUGGESTS 20-30 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, PROMOTING MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS AS THE MAIN STORM MODE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER
90S WILL RESULT IN INVERTED-V TEMPERATURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH
SUFFICIENT THETA-E DIFFS WHICH COULD PROMOTE GREATER DOWNDRAFTS
AND MICROBURSTS WITHIN ANY STRONGER STORM. THEREFORE, DAMAGING
WINDS UP TO 60 TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN RISK. ANY TALLER STORM
MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL UP TO QUARTERS AT THE LARGEST SIZE.
THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LANDSPOUTS AND/OR TORNADOES
DEPENDING ON HOW THE MCV INFLUENCES THE ENVIRONMENT. THREE
THINGS NEED TO OCCUR FOR THIS RISK TO EVOLVE. 1) THE MCV NEEDS
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR/CURVATURE. 2)
DEWPOINTS NEED TO BE ON THE UPPER-END OF THE PERCENTILE SPECTRUM
(MID TO UPPER 70S). AND 3) TEMPERATURES NEED TO BE A BIT COOLER
TO LOWER DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND RESULTING LCLS. IF THESE
OCCUR, SOME WEAK TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON THE FLIPSIDE,
STRONG SURFACE HEATING COULD LEAD TO >8 C/KM 0-1 KM LAPSE RATES,
WHICH IN THE VICINITY OF NEAR SURFACE VORTICITY FROM THE MCV AND
SYNOPTIC FRONTS, COULD PROMOTE LANSPOUTS. THESE ARE BOTH VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE AND CONDITIONAL RISKS, HOWEVER. WE WILL NEED TO
SEE HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK FOR FLOODING THURSDAY NIGHT:
AS NIGHT FALLS, FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO MORE OF A FLOODING RISK. A
30-40 KT NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI, WHICH WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE DAYTIME
STORM'S OUTFLOWS AND THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE FRONTS. CONVERGENCE
AT THE NOSE OF THE LLJ WITHIN A ZONE OF 1000-2000 J/KG MUCAPE
AND 1.8-2.0 IN PWATS (RANGED FROM HREF MEAN AND RAP FORECASTS)
WILL BRING A 40-75% CHANCE FOR FURTHER SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO ANY RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW AND THE SYNOPTIC FRONT RESULTING IN A LARGELY W-E
ORIENTATION, PARALLEL TO THE MEAN 850-500 MB FLOW, TRAINING OF
STORMS AND RESULTING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
THERMODYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAIN RATES UP
TO 1-3 IN/HR. THAT SAID, THE ORIENTATION OF THE LLJ WILL BE
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE LIFT WHICH MAY KEEP COVERAGE ON THE LOWER
SIDE KEEPING THE FLOODING THREAT VERY LOCALIZED TO WHERE STORMS
TRAIN MOST. ANYWHERE THAT SEES MULTIPLE STORMS MAY SEE LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS UP TO 3-5 INCHES.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR,
LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT GIVEN THE WARM
AND MOIST PROFILES, THE RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE LOWER (5% OR
LESS WITHIN 25 MILES OF ANY POINT.
LOW CONFIDENCE HEATRISK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE INCREASING. THIS MAY LEAD TO HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100-105 F. HOWEVER, WITH EXPECTED MCV CLOUD DEBRIS
AND OUTFLOW EACH DAY, CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED IN WIDESPREAD
EXCESSIVE HEAT. GREATER HEAT INDEX VALUES WOULD BE LIMITED TO
AREAS THAT SEE THE MOST SUNSHINE DURING THE DAYTIME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
40-75% RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
WITH ONLY WEAK MID-LEVEL ENERGY TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE SYNOPTIC THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO HANG AROUND THE
REGION FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING 40-75%
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY (HIGHEST BEING 50-75% FRIDAY NIGHT).
GIVEN LITTLE MODIFICATION TO THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT, SOME
SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY. AT THE MOMENT, THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A
MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FRIDAY AND A MARGINAL
(1 OF 4) TO SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL VERY UNCERTAIN DUE TO
WEAK FLOW ALOFT MAKING MESOSCALE DETAILS OF EACH COMPLEX VERY
IMPORTANT IN HOW THE LOCATION AND MAGNITUDE OF THREATS EVOLVE
EACH DAY.
"COOLER" TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK:
AN OVERTURNING WAVE BREAK OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES WILL BRING MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA TO START NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
IN THE EXTENDED 7-14 DAY RANGE, THE WAVE BREAK WILL DIP INTO THE
OZARKS, BRINGING ANOTHER HEAT DOME TO THE AREA. THE CPC GIVES A
60-70% CHANCE OF HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 105 F AT SOME POINT
DURING THE JULY 13-17 TIMEFRAME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
INITIALLY, THE REGION WILL SEE VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AS THE AREA REMAINS BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS,
ONE TO THE EAST AND ONE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS.
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECAYING THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX COULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT INCLUDED A PROB30'S FOR SGF AND BBG AS
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH LOWEST CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 15KFT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...HATCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page