258
FXUS63 KSGF 230736
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
236 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (60-90%) RETURN TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH IS THE MAIN THREAT.
- DAILY CHANCES EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LATER THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL LAST
WEEK NORTHWEST OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
CURRENTLY OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST U.S. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EXTENDING TO THE WEST INTO THE ROCKIES. AT
THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH A DRYLINE OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
LOCALLY, STRATUS DECK WAS OVER THE WESTERN 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW 60S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S.
TODAY/TONIGHT: THE UPPER WAVE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS
TODAY WITH THE SURFACE FRONT SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN
KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ML CAPES AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN
EASTERN KS SHOULD GET INTO THE 2500-3200 J/KG RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH 0-6 SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE WEST OF OUR CWA.
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN EASTERN KS WEST OF
OUR CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. BY MID TO LATE EVENING, A CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH STORMS FORMING INTO A QLCS.
WHILE A SMALL TORNADO RISK WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY AS IT MOVES
INTO OUR FAR WESTERN CWA, THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER RISK LATE
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT WILL BE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE
LINEAR THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CWA. HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS, HOWEVER THE LINE
LOOKS MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE SO THERE APPEARS TO BE A MINOR FLOOD
RISK AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY: THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END FRIDAY
MORNING, BUT MAY REFIRE OVER SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE FRONT OR REMNANT BOUNDARIES.
WHILE THE MAIN SEVERE RISK WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH IN ARKANSAS,
THERE WILL STILL BE A WIND RISK WITH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE MAIN CONVECTION TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST.
STRONGER WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA WITH AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET ON SATURDAY. MOST OF THE
FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
NEAR A WARM FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS POSSIBLY
MOVING INTO OUR SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE MAIN SEVERE STORMS POTENTIAL WILL BE IN OKLAHOMA AND
KANSAS INTO ARKANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY PUSH INTO OUR SOUTHWEST CWA BY 12Z SUNDAY.
SUNDAY - MONDAY: A STRONGER WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA.
HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. A MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING EXISTS
WHERE STORMS CAN TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY
OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA WHICH HAD THE MOST RAIN WITH THE
PREVIOUS EVENTS AND WHERE THE SOIL MOISTURE IS THE HIGHEST.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
FOR THE 06Z TAFS, SOME STRATUS OVER EASTERN KS WILL WORK INTO
WESTERN MO AND AFFECT JLN OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CEILINGS
POTENTIALLY INTO THE MVFR CATERGORY. WIND GUSTS COULD START TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT JLN UP TO 20 KTS AND AT ALL 3 SITES DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
GUST UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. CAMS ALL SHOW SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING
LATE IN THE PERIOD AND POTENTIALLY MAKING IT TO JLN BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD SO HAVE ADDED A PROB 30 GROUP FOR THIS NOW,
BUT HAVE KEPT BBG/SGF DRY FOR THIS FORECAST.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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