887
FXUS63 KSGF 180534
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1234 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ROUND 1 OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM ABOUT MIDDAY
SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE
AND COULD PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. SLIGHT WARM UP OCCURS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
MESOSCALE
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SATELLITE IR IMAGERY SHOWED THE OZARKS IN A CLEAR SLOT JUST
AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A COLD FRONT LAID OUT FROM JUST WEST OF OKLAHOMA CITY
NORTHEAST TO AROUND THE KANSAS CITY AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WHAT
PROVIDES THE OZARKS WITH SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
NEWEST 00Z CAMS RUNS HAVE SLOWED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR THE OZARKS SLIGHTLY. RAP AND HRRR OUTPUT HOLDS OF
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION UNTIL AROUND 09Z (4AM) WITH A SLOW
INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO MID- TO LATE MORNING. MODELS STILL
INDICATE A 30 TO 45KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE REGION THROUGH 12Z,
BUT LOOKING AT THE 00Z KSGF AND DOWN STREAM SOUNDINGS FROM KOKC
AND KDFW, THERE IS A WELL DEFINED CAP NOTED WITH FROM
100-200 J/KG OF CINH NOTED ON ALL THE SOUNDINGS. THE MID-LEVEL
INVERSION WAS AROUND THE 700MB LEVEL WHICH WOULD PLACE CLOUD
BASES AROUND THE 6-7KFT LEVEL AND THE LFC FROM 10-13KFT. THERE
IS MUCAPE IN THE 700-900 J/KG RANGE THOUGH WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION POTENTIAL.
WITH THIS IN MIND, LATEST THOUGHTS ARE THAT SHOWERS DON'T
DEVELOP/MOVE IN TO THE OZARKS UNTIL AROUND 09-10Z PRIMARILY IN
THE FORM OF ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. WITH THE LLJ
ONGOING AT THAT TIME, IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE CELLS
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DOWNBURST WINDS THE MAIN
CONCERNS.
THE NEXT QUESTION BECOMES, HOW THINGS PROGRESS THROUGH THE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CAMS HAVE SOME VASTLY
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS FROM CONTINUED ISOLATED/DISCRETE SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO A BROADER COVERAGE WITH EMBEDDED CELLS INTO THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME CONSISTENCY IN
THE AFTERNOON FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHIELD TO DEVELOP.
THOUGH SOME MEMBERS FILL THE RAIN IN BEHIND A POTENTIAL SQUALL
LINE/QLCS. WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING, INCREASED INSTABILITY AND
THE REGION ON THE NOSE OF A LLJ AND IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A DEPARTING 250MB JET THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
HAVE A GOOD AMOUNT OF CHECK BOXES MARKED OFF FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE WEATHER. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THERE IS AN EMBEDDED CIRCULATION PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN MO, BUT
THIS IS ONLY PRODUCING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. A
CLOSED CIRCULATION OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WAS IN THE PROCESS
OF BEING CUTOFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IT IS
ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
READINGS AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
TONIGHT: INITIALLY WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER THIS EVENING, BUT CLOUDS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AND
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. CAMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP
CONVECTION AFTER 09Z ACROSS OUR WEST AND BEGIN TO SHIFT THIS
CONVECTION OVER THE I44 CORRIDOR BY 12Z-15Z. HAZARDS WITH THIS
INITIAL CONVECTION WILL BE WITH LIGHTNING AND HAIL WITH MAINLY
ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SEVERE RISK: THE MODE OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY DEPEND ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE MORNING
CONVECTION BECOMES. A MORE WIDESPREAD MORNING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL BE REALIZED
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER, LESS MORNING COVERAGE WILL OFFER
BETTER CHANCES FOR SUPERCELLS, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO.
OUR BEST CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE WILL BE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MO IF SOME DISCRETE SUPERCELLS DEVELOP. WE
ARE EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE LINEAR BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
SURGE EAST. THE TORNADO RISK, WHILE LOW IS NOT ZERO AND WOULD BE
WITHIN THE QLCS. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE WITH 60-70MPH DAMAGING
WINDS.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FLOODING POTENTIAL: CAMS ARE
INDICATING MORE TRAINING OF STORM POTENTIAL OVER THE AREA WITH
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH
A MORE NARROW CORRIDOR OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AND ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF OVER 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. DESPITE THE CURRENT DROUGHT
STATUS OVER THE AREA, THIS RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY PRODUCE SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLOODING.
MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SHOULD END THE PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
COOLER ON SUNDAY: A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE
AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING HIGHS MORE IN LINE WITH OUR
CURRENT SEASON. HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW
40S IN THE EASTERN OZARKS AND THE UPPER 40S IN THE WESTERN CWA.
WARMER AND BREEZY ON MONDAY: THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PUSH
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING HIGH AND ADVANCING
FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD SWING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
ACROSS THE AREA. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
RETURN INTO THE AREA FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
SO WE ARE KEEPING THINGS DRY FOR NOW.
COOLER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: A COOLER AIR MASS
WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY BRINGING MORE
FALL LIKE AIR TO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S
AND LOWS IN THE 40S, BUT COULD SEE SOME MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
EASTERN OZARKS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY: THE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING CUTOFF
FROM THE MAIN FLOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL EVENTUALLY GET
KICKED OUT AND ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN WESTERLIES BY MIDWEEK. IF
THE ENERGY CAN HOLD TOGETHER, WE COULD SEE SOME RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT BEFORE
THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE
THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY DROP INTO MVFR LEVELS AS
HEAVIER RAIN MOVES IN BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP DOWN TO 4 SM OR LESS IN THESE HEAVIER
STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER MAY OCCUR TOMORROW WITH HAIL UP TO GOLF
BALL SIZE, 70 MPH DAMAGING WINDS, AND A BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH BY SATURDAY EVENING ALLOWING CEILINGS TO RETURN BACK TO
VFR BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MESOSCALE...HATCH
SHORT TERM...HATCH
LONG TERM...HATCH
AVIATION...SORIA
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