962
FXUS63 KSGF 141934
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
134 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO EARLY
MONDAY.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS MONDAY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES RETURNING THROUGH MID WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES (15-45%) WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONT
PASSAGE. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
A COLDER AIR MASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS EARLY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO THE
MIDDLE 20S. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOWER
TO UPPER 20S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION WHICH
WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO
THE AREA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TEENS (WITH SOME
ISOLATED READINGS IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS) ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI TO NEAR 20 DEGREES ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT WITH JUST A FEW PASSING
HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS HAVING
WIND CHILL VALUES AROUND ZERO TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 134 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND BECOME GUSTY AS
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL OCCUR AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL START A WARMING TREND
ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE 40S ON MONDAY. A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ON MONDAY AND WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 25 TO 35% RANGE.
SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI COULD SEE RH VALUES
DROP TO AROUND 20% MONDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER
TO ADVECT ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WILL BE THE WEAKEST WHERE THE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE THE LOWEST, BUT WITH THE DRIER CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING, SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WARMER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT AND REMAIN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 50S WITH SOME READINGS IN THE LOWER
60S OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED SO ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE DISTURBANCE, AND WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THE TROUGH DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH AND SENDING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL OCCUR ALONG
THE FRONT (15-45% PROBABILITIES) WITH THE BETTER CHANCES
OCCURRING EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHERE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
OCCUR. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP AND SOME ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER (5-10% CHANCE) COULD BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
A COLDER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.
LOOKING AT LONG WAVE CHARTS A TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE TROUGH DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH,
WHICH THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ARE COMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON. HIGHS ARE THURSDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TIMING OF
THE FRONT. WHERE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY,
HIGHS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
DROP BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA.
A COLDER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM'S LOWS FOR
FRIDAY MORNING ARE TRENDING COLDER AND ARE CLOSER TO THE 25TH
PERCENTILE OF THE NBM STATISTICAL SPREAD. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT
THE LOWS COULD BE CLOSER TO THE 25TH PERCENTILE WHICH WOULD BE
IN THE TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FOR FRIDAY MORNING. THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT WILL END BEFORE THE COLDER AIR MASS
ADVECTS IN, SO ALL RAIN WILL OCCUR.
THE COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND MORE ZONAL TO SLIGHT
RIDGING SETS UP NEXT WEEKEND OVER THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL LONG
WAVE TROUGHING DEVELOPS OVER THE WEST COAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD BEGIN
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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