649  
FXUS63 KSGF 231050  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
450 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2021  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2021  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN IOWA EARLY THIS  
MORNING AND COOLER/DRIER AIR HAS PUSHED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST  
AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. FAIRLY  
QUICK ZONAL PATTERN ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH A CLOSED  
LOW OVER CA/NV. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING WERE IN THE LOW  
20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO  
TEENS.  
 
THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EAST TODAY AND WE'LL  
GET INTO A MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING  
TROUGH AND LOW OUT WEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OUT IN  
THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND WE'LL SEE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASE  
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND ALSO WEST OF THE DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE  
SYSTEM. SOME GUSTY WINDS AND DRY AIR OVER THE AREA DURING THE  
AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,  
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE DRIER  
AIR THE LONGEST. LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN  
TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS  
TODAY SHOULD REACH THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE EASTERN OZARKS AND  
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 OUT WEST.  
 
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT. WHILE QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY  
LIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SEEING SOME MEASURED  
PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AND WE HAVE  
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY BEGIN  
AS SOME SLEET OR MIXED PRECIPITATION BUT WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY  
RAIN AND LITTLE OR NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT  
THIS TIME. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND FREEZING TO THE MID 30S IN  
THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 IN THE WEST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2021  
 
THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END ON SUNDAY  
MORNING. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING  
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN  
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE  
EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S IN THE NORTHERN CWA TO THE MID 50S IN THE  
SOUTHWEST.  
 
ON SUNDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST  
WITH THE SURFACE LOW REMAINING SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA BY 12Z MON.  
SHOWERS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD AND ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE AREA ON  
SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE IN THE WARMER AIR AND  
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE FROM THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  
 
THE LOW TRACK ON MONDAY ACROSS THE AREA IS NOW A BIT FURTHER  
NORTHWEST THAN WHAT WE WERE SEEING YESTERDAY AND COULD SEE SOME  
THUNDER FURTHER NORTH AS THE INSTABILITY CREEPS FURTHER NORTH LATE  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE  
NOW RANGING FROM AROUND 0.75 IN THE NORTHWEST CWA TO AROUND 2.00  
INCHES IN THE SOUTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LIMITED FLOODING RISK  
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LIMITED VEGETATION.  
WOULDN'T RULE OUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX BEHIND THE LOW AS THE COLDER AIR  
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR MONDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHERN  
CWA, BUT AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME,  
WITH THE BULK OF THE REMAINING QPF STAYING NORTH OF THE AREA.  
 
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TUESDAY  
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER RAIN/SNOW CHANCE TO  
THE AREA. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE LIGHT WITH A  
HALF INCH OR LESS EXPECTED.  
 
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH  
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 50S BY FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 448 AM CST SAT JAN 23 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH MID/HIGH LEVEL  
CEILINGS UNTIL THIS EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LOWER THIS EVENING  
THROUGH TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. RAIN CHANCES WILL  
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS, WITH MOST RAIN  
AFTER 06Z. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN. EAST WINDS  
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 22 TO 25 KTS THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MO...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG  
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG  
AVIATION...LINDENBERG  
 
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