142
FXUS63 KSGF 051012
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
512 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
- STORMS WILL REDEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BUT COULD CLIP FAR SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI. IF STORMS CAN REDEVELOP IN THE AREA A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH A
WARMING TREND TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. WEEKEND
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT CURRENTLY REMAINING JUST NORTH AND WEST
OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH TODAY PUSHING SOUTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING. CURRENT UNCAPPED MUCAPE
VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WILL DECREASE WHILE SPREADING
ACROSS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF I-44 TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT
OVERLY STRONG CURRENTLY BUT WILL INCREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES
EAST. THE SURFACE BASED CAP WILL REMAIN STRONG OVERNIGHT SO
STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE. GIVEN THE MUCAPE AND SHEAR
WOULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS THE MAIN RISK OVER THE NEXT HOURS WITH THE
STRONG SEVERE RISK DECREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
WIND RISK WILL BE MORE LIMITED DUE TO THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS, BUT IF ANY LINE SEGMENTS CAN DEVELOP SOME ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY BOWING SEGMENTS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
DAY TODAY. THERE COULD BE A BREAK IN RAIN THAT ENDS EARLY THIS
MORNING THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL THEN OCCUR
AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTH TODAY. INSTABILITY
WILL BE WEAK THIS MORNING BUT WILL START TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING SOUTH OF THE FRONT. ONCE INSTABILITY
STARTS TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING STORMS
WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE AREA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA,
BUT THE FRONT MAY STILL BE NORTH OF FAR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
WHEN THE STORMS REDEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS
OCCURS THERE WOULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL
UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS TO OCCUR, BUT STORMS WOULD
QUICKLY PUSH OUT OF THE AREA. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THE
REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT OCCURS AFTER THE FRONT ALREADY IS
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN THE STRONG TO SEVERE
RISK BEING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS AND LIFT FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS
HIGHS ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S WITH SOME
MIDDLE 30S POSSIBLE IN THE MORE PROTECTED LOCATIONS.
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE 70S AND 80S BY THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN RETURN
THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS, SOME BRING IT IN AS
EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY WITH OTHERS AS LATE AS LATE SUNDAY. THE
AIR MASS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE MUCH COOLER AS HIGHS IN
THE 70S TO LOW 80S WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE KJLN AND
KSGF BY THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
KBBG SITE INTO THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MID TO LATE MORNING AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL
LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA AND
COULD IMPACT THE KBBG SITE. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BEHIND
THE FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
TODAY AND COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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