989
FXUS63 KSGF 171841
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
141 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 35-45 MPH WILL OCCUR AT TIMES THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-44.
- SLIGHT (2 OF 5) TO ENHANCED (3 OF 5) SEVERE RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH ALL
HAZARDS POSSIBLE. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE HAIL UP TO BASEBALL
SIZE, 70-80 MPH WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. THE GREATEST
SEVERE RISK IS ACROSS CENTRAL MO. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
SUPPORT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
- MARGINAL (1 OF 5) SEVERE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-44. LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS, DAMAGING WINDS UP
TO 60 MPH, AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
FORECAST REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ITERATIONS, WITH A
SHORT WINDOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED BUT
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IN CENTRAL MISSOURI AND A LONGER
WINDOW THIS EVENING FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS BEFORE
STORMS BREAK APART AND DISSIPATE.
ITEMS OF NOTE UNRELATED TO STORM POTENTIAL:
- HEAT: TEMPERATURES ALREADY IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
AS OF 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA, WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON, EVEN PUSHING ABOVE 100 DEGREES IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI.
- WIND: WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 20-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40MPH ONGOING. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL COLD
FRONT ARRIVES.
ONTO SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY/TONIGHT:
STORM MODE/COVERAGE:
STORMS SHOULD INITIATE NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS SUPERCELLS
THAT NEARLY IMMEDIATELY GROW INTO BROKEN CLUSTERS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT AND MOVE SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISM AND FOCAL POINT FOR
INITIAL STORMS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WEAKEN AS STORMS MOVE
SOUTH, AND STORMS WILL INITIALLY SUSTAIN IN THE WEAKER
ENVIRONMENTS BEFORE SLOWLY BREAKING APART AND WEAKENING IN
INTENSITY INTO THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE FURTHER SOUTH.
LOCATION:
CENTRAL MISSOURI, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HWY 54, STILL HAS THE BEST
SEVERE (AND ESPECIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE) POTENTIAL DUE TO THE
HIGHER INSTABILITY. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER DECREASES WITH
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD PROGRESSION AS YOU GET MORE REMOVED FROM
BETTER INSTABILITY/SHEAR.
SEVERITY/INTENSITY:
THERE WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW WHERE THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE ABLE
TO TAP INTO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH
IMPRESSIVELY CURVED HODOGRAPHS IN THE LOW-LEVELS. ANY SUPERCELLS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS, DAMAGING WINDS
70-80 MPH, AND TORNADOES, ESPECIALLY BEFORE 8PM. INTENSITY WILL
SUSTAIN INTO MORE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
INITIALLY, BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AND BREAKING APART INTO THE
EVENING.
FLOODING:
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF 1-3" PER HOUR RAIN RATES, AND WITH ALL
OF THE RECENT RAINFALL, FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN NEARLY
ANYWHERE THAT SEES RAIN RATES GREATER THAN AN INCH PER HOUR.
HREF/REFS LPMMS INDICATE LOCALIZED AREAS/BANDS OF 2-3" IN 6
HOURS, WHICH SUPPORTS THE SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4) EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK ACROSS THE REGION.
TRAINING STORMS:
WHILE CONFIDENCE STILL IS LOW THAT THIS SCENARIO WILL PAN OUT,
CAMS ARE BACK TO SUGGESTING THAT ADDITIONAL BACKBUILDING AND
TRAINING ALONG THE FRONT WILL OCCUR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY NEAR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER AS THE FRONT STALLS.
THE FLOODING RISK WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY IF ANY STORMS
BEGIN TO TRAIN/BACKBUILD.
THURSDAY SEVERE POTENTIAL:
REGARDLESS OF IF STORMS TRAIN OVERNIGHT, ELEVATED CONVECTION
APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY
MORNING. THESE STORMS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION DECREASES CONFIDENCE IN SEEING SEVERE WEATHER IF THIS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS AND BRINGS COVERAGE INTO QUESTION. REGARDLESS,
WE'VE SEEN THIS SETUP BEFORE, AND DAMAGING WINDS AND ELEVATED
HAILERS APPEAR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET AND DRY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AFTER STORMS
MOVE OUT THURSDAY. THE QUIET PERIOD WILL BE BRIEF, WITH ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM PUSHING SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING POPS BACK TO 50-70% SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WITH THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL, FLOODING AND ADDITIONAL
SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR POSSIBLE AGAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WHILE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN DETAILS OF THE
THREATS, CONTINUE TO CHECK THE FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
A FEW AREAS OF LOW (2500FT) CUMULUS STREETS ARE DEVELOPING LATE
THIS MORNING UNDER OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
ARE SUSTAINED 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KTS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH.
THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE AROUND 01-02Z TO THE KSGF AND KJLN
SITES (AN HOUR OR SO LATER TO KBBG) AND WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH IT. BROKEN CLUSTERS OF
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS COLD FRONT AS IT
ARRIVES, BUT WITH DIMINISHING COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT
PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE (AND
THUS, WHETHER THE TERMINALS THEMSELVES WILL BE IMPACTED) AT THIS
POINT TO INCLUDE A PREVAILING GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED TO >30% SO HAVE UPPED THE SGF/JLN STORM
GROUPS FROM PROB30 TO TEMPO. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND TURN
NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHETHER THE STORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE WILL BE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CAMDEN
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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