473
FXUS63 KSGF 230353
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1053 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY PLEASANT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO MID-80S CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
- CONTINUING TO MONITOR PATTERN TRENDS OF 20-40% RAIN CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
MUCH TO WRITE ABOUT NOTHING--WHICH IS A GOOD THING AFTER THE
BRUNT OF HEAT THAT WE ENDURED THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER.
15-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STRAY THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON:
CURRENT VISIBLE AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW-
LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH MISSOURI, PLACING US
IN LARGELY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN THE WAKE OF THE BURNING
STRATUS, A CUMULUS FIELD REMAINS, WITH SOME CLOUDS BECOMING
TALL ENOUGH FOR VERY LIGHT SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY WITHIN CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THIS IS OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF 250-1000 J/KG OF
REMNANT INSTABILITY, DESPITE THE MAIN SURFACE COLD FRONT BEING
WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. THESE INSTABILITY PROFILES WERE QUITE
THIN BASED ON OUR 12Z BALLOON DATA, AND WITH SYNOPTIC DESCENT
TAKING HOLD OF THE AREA UPSTREAM OF THE EXITING TROUGH AXIS,
WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH ELSE OTHER THAN A FEW STRAY STRONGER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON (15-30% CHANCE).
PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE POTENTIAL AGAIN LATE TONIGHT:
AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF EASTWARD, RIDGING ACROSS
THE PLAINS STATES IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO AMPLIFY. THIS WILL
SHIFT LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS OUR
AREA AS AIR TENDS TO MOVE TOWARD THE RESULTING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONTRANGE. WITH THIS NORTHEASTERLY
SHIFT, COOLER AIR AND RESULTING LOW STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS THE AIR MOVES UP THE OZARK PLATEAU. THIS SOURCE OF
OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY HELP PROMOTE SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE PRODUCTION
--MUCH LIKE THIS MORNING--AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT CAPPING
TO REMAIN ABOVE THE SATURATED NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. THE CHANCE FOR
PATCHY DRIZZLE IS LOWER TONIGHT THAN IT WAS THIS MORNING,
THOUGH, SINCE GREATER SYNOPTIC DESCENT WILL BE IN THE REGION
WITH THE SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE AREA. WILL NOT DISCOUNT
OROGRAPHIC LIFT, THOUGH, SO LEAVING THE MENTION THERE AS A KEY
MESSAGE FOR NOW. ANY LOW STRATUS AND DRIZZLE WOULD THEN
EVAPORATE BY MID TO LATER MORNING FOLLOWING DAYTIME MIXING.
SEASONABLY PLEASANT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK:
AS RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS AMPLIFIES AND BECOMES MORE
MERIDIONAL, IT WILL ONLY VERY SLOWLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD, KEEPING
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER OUR AREA, LOCKING IN THE
COOLER AIR MASS. "COOLER" IS RELATIVE, OF COURSE, AS THE AIR
MASS IS ACTUALLY "NORMAL" FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IT IS JUST MUCH
COOLER THAN THE PERSISTENT, RECORD-BREAKING HEAT FOR SEPTEMBER
WE JUST EXPERIENCED. ANYWAYS, HIGHS IN THE MID-70S TO MID-80S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
WARM FRONT BEGINS TO PRESS TOWARD THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD, SAVE FOR THE PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
MONITORING PATTERN TRENDS FOR 20-40% RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND:
THE RIDGE FORECAST TO BE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IS
PROGGED TO BE QUITE AMPLIFIED/MERIDIONAL. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE DEPICTING A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF THIS RIDGE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. DUE TO THE AMPLIFIED, BUT THIN AND MERIDIONAL NATURE
OF THE RIDGE PAIRED WITH THE LOW AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE, IT SEEMS
MODEL MEMBERS ARE STRUGGLING A BIT ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS IS LEADING TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PROGRESSION OF A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ATTENDANT RAIN CHANCES
INTO OUR AREA.
IT SEEMS THERE ARE TWO MAIN SCENARIOS. THE FIRST IS THE
SHORTWAVE BREAKS THE RIDGE DOWN, AND THE WAVE ROUNDS THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE AND DROPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD BRING A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR AREA. THE OTHER
SCENARIO, IS THAT INSTEAD OF FULLY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE, IT
SHIFTS THE AXIS TO BE ORIENTED NORTHEASTWARD, AND THE WAVE LIFTS
OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING LOWER RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR AREA. SO, FOR NOW, CHANCES ARE 20-40% ACROSS THE
AREA GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING. THE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ANY PREFERENCE OF THE TWO
SCENARIOS. EITHER WAY, ANY CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY
LOW AS APPRECIABLE SHEAR SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. IT
WILL MAINLY COME DOWN TO COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF ANY RAIN
CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM, THOUGH, AS THE RIDGE TRAVERSES THE
AREA, WITH FORECAST HIGHS BUMPING UP INTO THE 80S FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THERE IS THEN EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE PATTERN
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING WILDLY LARGE TEMPERATURE SPREADS.
THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE TRANSITION TO FALL WEATHER WITH THE
JET STREAM BECOMING A BIT MORE VARIABLE, PROMOTING CHANCES FOR
COLD FRONTS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THE 25TH-75TH
PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE SPREADS HOVER WITHIN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
(CONSOLIDATING GREATER CONFIDENCE TO THAT TEMPERATURE RANGE),
THE TAILS SPREAD ALL THE WAY FROM NEAR RECORDS IN THE MID-90S,
TO SOMEWHAT COOLER FALL WEATHER NEAR 70 F. WE WILL ALSO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE MEAN FORECAST
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
AN MVFR STRATUS CLOUD DECK IS MORNING SOUTHWEST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING, AND ALSO DEVELOPING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THE STRATUS DECK AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT THE KSGF AND
KBBG SITES, BUT THIS STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF
THE KJLN SITE. SOME IFR CEILINGS AND MAYBE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THIS STRATUS DECK TONIGHT,
BUT AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE LOW FOR THIS OCCURRING. ANY
LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD SEE CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT OVERALL IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...WISE
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