098
FXUS63 KSGF 091114
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
514 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE
NORTH(20-60%).
- TEMPERATURES WILL COOL CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 40S
FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 154 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW A FAIRLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH A PHASED TROUGH
FROM THE ROCKIEST INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WERE WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH REGION. A COLD
FRONT WAS TRACKING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE SURFACE FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH THE CONVECTION HAVING PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRATUS HAS MOVED IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE MOISTURE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA AND WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH THE STRATUS ERODING. AN
UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA BY LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE THAT THIS PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOSTLY
BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN, BUT COULD MIX IN A FEW SNOWFLAKES
LATE BEFORE ENDING. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION OR WINTRY IMPACT IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A
TENTH OF A INCH OR LESS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 154 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, THE SOUTHERN EDGES OF A COLDER AIR MASS WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA, DIPPING TEMPERATURES MORE OF A NORMAL RANGE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
AS THE COLDER AIR MASS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA, TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 50S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WE GET BACK
INTO A LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS,
THE UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND BRING
NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA AND EVENTUALLY ANOTHER
TROUGH WITH COOLER AIR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES ONLY DIPPING BACK DOWN TOWARDS
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. GULF MOISTURE WILL BE KEPT WELL SOUTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR OVER THE
REGION, SO ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THESE SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOK TO BE MINIMAL
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 AM CST FRI JAN 9 2026
FOR THE 12Z TAFS, A LARGE STRATUS DECK WAS POSITIONED ACROSS THE
CWA AND WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING BEFORE
SOME CLEARING TAKES PLACE AT JLN. SGF MAY STAY IN THE STRATUS
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH ADDITIONAL STRATUS WHICH WILL MOVE IN
WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT. GENERALLY EXPECTING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
THE STRATUS AND SOME VFR FOR ANY CLEARING THAT TAKES PLACE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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