751
FXUS63 KSGF 060441
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1141 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
EXTREME HEAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OVER THE WEST WITH
AREAS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS SEEING SOME
MODIFICATION.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE WORSENING DROUGHT AND INCREASING
FIRE DANGER. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20% OR LESS) FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER MANY LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
EXTREME HEAT TO REMAIN THE CONCERN THIS WEEKEND AS THE CENTER OF
A 593DM UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER KS INTO OK REMAINS THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. A SHORT WAVE RIDING THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY PROVIDING A BIT OF RELIEF TO SOME BUT NOT
ALL. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT HEAT INDICES ON SUNDAY WILL
AGAIN TOP 105 OVER SOUTHEAST KS INTO WESTERN AND FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI. AS THE ADVANCE AND INFLUENCE OF THE BOUNDARY IS BETTER
DETERMINED, THERE WILL BE A LIKELIHOOD THAT THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
THE 12Z SGF RAOB DEPICTED A BIT MORE MOISTURE...WITH EARLY
AFTERNOON CUMULUS REFLECTING THIS INCREASE. THE HRRR HAS
MAINTAINED THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF I-44
TODAY...AND THERE IS SIMILAR EXPECTATIONS ON SUNDAY. DUE TO
SKINNY CAPE/POOR LAPSE RATES AND THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR THAT WILL
BE QUICKLY ENTRAINED...ANY STORMS THAT ARE REALIZED WILL BE
LIMITED AND SHORT LIVED. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
ANY DEGREE OF RELIEF WILL BE SHORT LIVED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
THE UPPER RIDGE REBOUNDS WITH HEIGHTS LIKELY CLIMBING TO 596DM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING TO AROUND 25
DEGREES. THIS WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES TO
ONCE AGAIN CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS CWA-WIDE
TUESDAY.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO DESCEND INTO MISSOURI. BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH DECREASING COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTH.
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH.
FALLING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING
THE FRONT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT THE
SITES AND INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW. WINDS WILL START OUT
EASTERLY WITH A SLIGHT TURN TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS. ANY LOCATIONS THAT
EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD LOCALLY SEE HIGHER WIND
GUSTS OVER 30MPH.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SPRINGFIELD:
9/5: 99(1990)
9/6: 100(1960)
9/7: 104 (1947)
9/8: 98(1939)
9/9: 98 (1939)
JOPLIN:
9/5: 103(1998)
9/6: 102(1947)
9/7: 105(1947)
9/8: 101(1947)
9/9: 100(1947)
WEST PLAINS:
9/5: 97(1998)
9/6: 95(1998)
9/7:99(1998)
9/8:91(2005)
9/9:94(2013)
VICHY/ROLLA:
9/5: 104(1899) 9/6: 105(1899) 9/7: 101(1899) 9/8: 100(1901) 9/9:
97(1897)
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...RUNNELS
LONG TERM...RUNNELS
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
CLIMATE...BURCHFIELD
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