228
FXUS63 KSGF 292319
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
619 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AS DAILY HEAT INDICES
CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. LITTLE NIGHTTIME RELIEF WITH LOWS
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. THESE CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND, SO THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
PLANS TO CELEBRATE THE HOLIDAY SHOULD MAKE EFFORTS TO HAVE
COOLING AND HYDRATION OPTIONS READILY AVAILABLE.
- ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
STARTING THURSDAY. CURRENTLY, COVERAGE/PROBABILITY IS 15-30%.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED PULSE-SEVERE STORMS WITH
MICROBURST WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
TODAY/TONIGHT:
- IMPACTS: HEAT HAZARDS.
- DETAILS: HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100. OTHER DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE DSS
PACKET.
- CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
WARM, MOIST AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION. STRONG CAPPING, AS
SEEN IN MODEL SOUNDING PLOTS AND THE MORNING AND PREVIOUS
EVENING RADIOSONDES, WILL PREVENT ANY CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 854 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
HEAT WAVE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY, POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND:
- IMPACTS: HEAT HAZARDS.
- DETAILS: HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OTHER DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE DSS
PACKET.
- CONFIDENCE: HIGH THROUGH FRIDAY. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN HEAT
HAZARDS EXTENDING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: HIGH PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
AND LOW PRESSURE WELL NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
WARM, MOIST AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION. MODELS DIVERGE ON
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS COMING WEEKEND, DECREASING
CONFIDENCE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HEAT IMPACTS LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE STARTING THURSDAY, POSSIBLY
STRONG/SEVERE:
- IMPACTS: LOCALIZED GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS HAZARDS. POTENTIALLY
LOCALIZED STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREATS.
- DETAILS: 15-30% CHANCES/COVERAGE OF PULSE STORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING STARTING THURSDAY. GREATER
DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH BEST LOCATION AND THREATS (INCLUDING
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS) WILL BECOME MORE
CLEAR IN THE COMING DAYS.
- CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM IN SEEING AT LEAST SOME STORMS. LOW IN
STRENGTH, COVERAGE, AND PLACEMENT.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: THROUGH FRIDAY, THE PATTERN DOESN'T
CHANGE MUCH, BUT GREATER MOISTURE AND A WEAKENED CAP IS
EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE. AT THIS TIME, THAT LOOKS TO LEAD TO
15-30% COVERAGE/PROBABILITY FOR DIURNAL ISOLATED CONVECTION
STARTING THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY CAN
RESULT, PULSE-SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THAT DETAIL IS LOW. THIS WEEKEND MAY SEE A DISRUPTION TO
THE PATTERN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHAT WILL PLAY OUT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS
TAPERING OFF AROUND 02-03Z AND RETURNING AGAIN BETWEEN 12-14Z
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LLWS 35-45KTS WILL BE
STRONGEST FURTHEST WEST (KJLN) AND WILL ALSO DISSIPATE AFTER
12-14Z AS THE NOCTURNAL LLJ FADES. ONLY OTHER FORECAST ITEM OF
NOTE IS THAT IT IS A LITTLE HAZY IN THE UPPER LEVELS DUE TO
SAHARAN DUST, AND ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AFFECTING VISIBILITY AT
THE SURFACE, IT WILL BE NOTICEABLE AT HIGHER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...CAMDEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page