749
FXUS63 KSGF 301140
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
640 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE
VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES.
- ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT MANY LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH LIMITED COVERAGE.
- MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 65.
- AFTER THE WEEKEND, MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE AREA STAYS DRY
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK, WITH NEXT WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES
COULD DROP TO BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES WITH SOME DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. LOWS WILL DROP TO UPPER TO MIDDLE 60S THIS
MORNING WITH THE LOWER TEMPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL MO.
STORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS EVENING, AND
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, REMAINING ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS KANSAS
INTO NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS. THE
UNCAPPED MUCAPE WILL MAINLY REMAIN WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA DURING THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO THIS MORNING,
BUT THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE UNCAPPED MUCAPE WILL CLIP THE FAR
WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, GENERALLY ALONG
A FORT SCOTT KANSAS TO CASSVILLE MISSOURI LINE. THE CURRENT
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST WITHIN THIS AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY. OVERALL, THE
SEVERE RISK IS LOW WITH THIS ACTIVITY, AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
WEAK AND THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL BE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA, BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PENNY
SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH; BUT GENERALLY, THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THIS WILL BE WEST OF THE AREA AND MANY
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE THE AREA WILL NOT BE IMPACTED.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY,
AND COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING ANYWHERE THAT MULTIPLE
STORMS CAN TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. ANY CONVECTION THAT
MOVES MORE EAST SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT GETS INTO THE MORE CAPPED
AIR MASS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA, BUT SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AS THIS ACTIVITY WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INTO
THE AREA.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE AREA TODAY,
RESULTING IN WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND THE CAP WILL
START TO WEAKEN BUT WILL LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY ERODE, BEFORE
LIKELY RE-STRENGTHENING AGAIN THIS EVENING. SOME ISOLATED
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP, A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT WITH THE
WEAKER SHEAR, THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS LOW.
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS KANSAS AGAIN THIS EVENING
INTO SUNDAY. AS THETA-E DIFFERENCE INCREASE AND COLD POOLS
CONGEAL AND AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE OUTFLOW.
THE MUCAPE INSTABILITY OF 2000-3000 J/KG DEVELOPS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65 TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
REMAIN ON THE WEAKER SIDE, LIMITING THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK, BUT
GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS, AND IF ANY STORMS CAN TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS
A LOCALIZED FLOODING RISK WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 LATER SUNDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SHEAR WILL BE EVEN WEAKER AND THERE WILL
BE LESS INSTABILITY, SO A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN RISK.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, A WARMER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST, WHICH WILL LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL
AFTER THE MORNING ACTIVITY.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS TO THE UPPER 80S AND MAYBE EVEN LOW 90S ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR WESTERN MISSOURI TODAY AND
SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO MOVE EAST OVER THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREFORE, SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM THE LAKE OF THE OZARKS REGION TO THE EASTERN OZARKS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL THEN BE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY EACH
DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO MIDDLE 80S TO NEAR 90 EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LATE WEEK (LATE THURSDAY/FRIDAY), THE RIDGE STARTS TO MOVE EAST
AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PLAINS, WHICH WILL BRING ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO THE REGION. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ON THE TRACK AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL IMPACT TIMING
AND EXACT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
PATCHY FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSOURI TO START THE TAF PERIOD, WITH KBBG OBSERVING TRUE
VLIFR FOG (1/4SM VIS) TO START THE PERIOD, AND KSGF STARTING AT
400FT CEILINGS THAT ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING. WITHIN 1-2 HOURS,
CEILINGS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR AT KSGF; KBBG WILL TAKE LONGER,
PERHAPS UNTIL 16Z, FOR FOG TO DISSIPATE AND FOR VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN.
OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SINCE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD,
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO TAF SITES IS LOW, SO OPTED TO KEEP
PROB30 INSTEAD OF TEMPO OR PREVAILING FOR NOW. THIS AFTERNOON
BETWEEN 18-00Z IS THE FIRST PERIOD WHERE SCATTERED SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT SEEMS POSSIBLE, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
SUNDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...CAMDEN
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