805
FXUS63 KSGF 141000
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
500 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
105 TO 110 WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. MINIMAL OVERNIGHT RELIEF WITH LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80.
- LOW CHANCES (5-20%) FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 54 DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND
SATURDAY. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND
GUST ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND MOST IF NOT ALL LOCATIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL (1 OUT OF 5) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN RISK ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AND HOT AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 105 TO 110. WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOWS ONLY COOL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO THE
LOWER 80S EACH NIGHT. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH 8 PM SUNDAY. THE LONGEVITY OF THE
EXTREME HEAT WITH LIMITED OVERNIGHT RELIEF WILL ELEVATE THE HEAT
RISK AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO OCCUR DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
65. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DROP INTO
THE 30 TO 40% RANGE EACH AFTERNOON TODAY AND THIS WEEKEND.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN KANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA AS THE RIDGE IS
KEEPING THE STORM TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, AND THE CAP WILL WEAKEN
SOME ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE (<15%) FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 54 THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. TO THE SOUTH THE
CAP WILL BE STRONGER AND THERE WILL ALSO BE A DRIER AIR MASS IN
THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL LIMIT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY AS CHANCES
ARE LOW AND IF A STORM CAN DEVELOP COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI, AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA AGAIN. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<20%) FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 54 SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP WEAKENS
SOME IN THESE LOCATIONS AGAIN. JUST LIKE TODAY THE CAP WILL
REMAIN STRONGER TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 54 LIMITING THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THESE LOCATIONS. MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. IF A STORM CAN
DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO PUSH BACK TO THE WEST SOME
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE DISTURBANCE AND
COULD DEVELOP INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK, ESPECIALLY
WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE A COMPLEX
OF STORMS AND THE EXACT TRACK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW FAR
THE RIDGE PUSHED BACK TO WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND ALSO WHERE THE
STORMS DEVELOP BEFORE TRACKING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. THE STORMS
COULD BE BANDED IN NATURE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE
AROUND 2" SO HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STORMS THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
OCCUR, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY STORMS CAN TRAINING. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS AND ALSO A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SLIGHTLY COOL TEMPERATURES ARE POSISBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S (CENTRAL MO) TO THE
MIDDLE 90S (EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KS). WILL HAVE TO WATCH JUST
HOW FAR BACK TO THE WEST THE RIDGE PUSHES ON MONDAY. IF THE
RIDGE PUSHES FURTHER TO THE WEST THE HOTTER TEMPERATURES WOULD
ALSO PUSH FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST, BUT IF RIDGE REMAINS FURTHER
TO THE EAST HIGHS WOULD THEN BE HOTTER TO THE EAST ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
ON MONDAY. THE RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO EAST ON
TUESDAY AND OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS COULD
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TO NEAR 100
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI
ON TUESDAY. IF THE RIDGE DOES NOT PUSH AS FAR WEST SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY THE HOTTER CONDITIONS COULD MOVE FURTHER EAST ON
TUESDAY AS SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS BRING THE RIDGE
FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO AROUND 100
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THE 00Z ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ARE THEN PUSHING THE RIDGE BACK
TO THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
SOUTHEAST TROUGH THE REGION. THIS WOULD PUSH THE HOTTER AIR
MASS BACK TO THE WEST AND ALSO BRING SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON JUST HOW FAR
WEST THE RIDGE PUSHES BACK ESPECIALLY FROM RUN TO RUN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 500 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
OCCUR AT TIMES THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MOZ055>058-
066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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