213
FXUS63 KSGF 110546
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1246 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN CHANCES (30-60%) THIS EVENING FOR AREAS NEAR THE
MO/AR BORDER. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
- MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR
LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44 TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT. CURRENTLY, THE MAIN THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ALSO
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SOME WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS DEVELOPING MAINLY IN ARKANSAS BUT WILL CLIP FAR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDER HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST, MOST OF THE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
WEAK INSTABILITY, A FEW ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE NEAR TO THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER AND TO THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WILL PUSH OUT
OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN
OVERALL LIGHT.
A COOLER AIR MASS IS PUSHING INTO THE REGION, AND HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION
ON MONDAY. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BUT A
WARM AIR MASS WILL START TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
REGION AND HIGHS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT SUN MAY 10 2026
THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BUT SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AS
HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
INSTABILITY WILL START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SOME, ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SOME DRIER AIR WILL
BE IN PLACE IN THE 500 TO 250MB RANGE, WHICH MAY LIMIT SOME OF
THE INSTABILITY. FORCING MAY ALSO NOT BE OVERLY STRONG, SO
STORMS MAY BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE OVERALL.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGEST
STORMS TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF I-44. IF ANY
LINE SEGMENTS CAN DEVELOP, SOME LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 60 MPH WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND COVERAGE WILL LIKELY
DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
THE AIR MASS WILL NOT BE MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AS HIGHS
WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE 80S LATE
WEEK, WITH UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS THEN INDICATE ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COULD MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
MODEL MEMBERS ON THE TRACK, TIMING, AND STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM
SO THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. SOME RAIN CHANCES COULD BE
POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEKEND BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON MAY 11 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...SORIA
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