051
FXUS63 KSGF 052251
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
551 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.
- STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR AREA. THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR THESE STORMS
TO BEGIN IN OUR AREA BEFORE MOVING OUT, WHICH COULD RESULT IN
A BRIEF WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER RISK.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH A
WARMING TREND TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND. WEEKEND
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
TODAY, AND LOOKS TO HAVE JUST CLEARED THE SGF CWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WE ALSO SEE SOME SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
PRIMARILY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROADER
SYNOPTIC TROUGH. IT IS MUCH COLDER POST-FRONT, WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S AND A CRISP NORTHEAST
WIND. THAT WIND WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO THE EVENING. CLOUD COVER
AND LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING. COUNTIES ALONG OUR BORDER WITH ARKANSAS
ARE INCLUDED IN THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
POTENTIAL, BUT WITH THE COLD FRONT ALREADY CLEARING THE AREA, THE
THREAT TO THE NORTH OF THE BORDER IS MINIMAL. THE LOW-END THREAT
COVERS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO INITIALLY FORM IN THE
SOUTHERNMOST PART OF THE SGF CWA BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND
STRENGTHENING IN THE BETTER SEVERE ENVIRONMENT. AGAIN, THIS SEEMS
UNLIKELY DUE TO THE LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT HAVING ALREADY MOVED
SOUTH OF HERE. NONETHELESS, WILL CONTINUE MESSAGING THIS POTENTIAL
WITH THE CONDITIONAL AND UNCERTAIN NATURE OF THE SETUP. QUARTER-
SIZED HAIL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY, WITH 60
MPH WINDS AS A SECONDARY HAZARD ALONG WITH THE OUTSIDE THREAT FOR A
TORNADO CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER.
DREARY OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LOWS IN THE 40S. SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REMAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT FOR
THE DAY. CLOUDS REMAIN ALONG WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE HIGH. CAA AND LIMITED
INSOLATION CAP OUR HIGHS AT AROUND 60 FOR WEDNESDAY, 10+ DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. BUT, DO NOT DESPAIR; THE APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLEARING CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING TREND FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. CAA DECREASES WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT CLOUDS BEGIN TO BREAK
SIGNIFICANTLY, ALLOWING OUR LOWS TO DIP TO AROUND 40 DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD THURSDAY, SWITCHING US BACK INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW BY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE
60S. BY FRIDAY, HIGHS ARE BACK TO NORMAL, IN THE 70S. ANOTHER FROPA
LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME FRIDAY EVENING, BUT WITHOUT MUCH TIME FOR
MOISTURE RETURN, PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK LOW AND BRIEF.
WE QUICKLY FLIP BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND HIGHS SATURDAY SOAR
INTO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A CUTOFF LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS NO SEVERE RISK YET OUTLINED BY SPC FOR THIS
WEEKEND, MACHINE LEARNING PRODUCTS (CIPS/CSU) ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER PARTICULARLY WEST OF HWY 65. THE
TIMING, LOCATION, AND THREATS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE WITH TIME,
BUT ARE BEING MONITORED CLOSELY. LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT
OUR TEMPERATURES WON'T TAKE AS MUCH OF A HIT, WITH POST-FRONTAL
HIGHS SUNDAY REMAINING IN THE 70S AND A WARMING TREND TO START NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
FOR THE 00Z TAFS, SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. CEILINGS WILL BE IN THE IFR
AND MVFR CATEGORIES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...LINDENBERG
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