175
FXUS63 KSGF 090520
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1220 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY
WEST OF U.S.65 CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON.
- INCREASINGLY ACTIVE PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND FLOODING FROM LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW AND CURRENT CONDITIONS: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
AND ANOTHER LOW OUT IN THE PACIFIC WEST OF CA/OR AND THE 130W
LONGITUDE. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING SOUTHEAST
INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. DRY AIR
CONTINUES OVER OUR AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S GIVING US
EARLY AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40%. WINDS
WERE GUSTY AND OVER 30 MPH IN SOME LOCATIONS GIVING US SOME
ELEVATED TO LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY WEST OF U.S. 65.
REST OF THE AFTERNOON: THE ELEVATED TO LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS DROPPING A BIT FURTHER AND WIND GUSTS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT: THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI TONIGHT. WIND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET THIS EVENING AND MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER
THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST BACK INTO CANADA, WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY
STALLING OUT FROM WEST TO EAST, NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE
MAY GET SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA
BY THURSDAY NIGHT(20-40%) BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
A SECONDARY NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST
ONE THAT LIFTED INTO CANADA WILL PUSH EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
U.S. CANADIAN BORDER WHICH MAY NUDGE THE FRONT A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN MU CAPES SOUTH OF THE FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. SOME STRONGER STORMS
MAY BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CWA WITH
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS.
A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST INTO THE WEST
COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A BROAD AREA OF SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SETTING UP AHEAD OF THE LOW AND INTO THE PLAINS. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS TO THE EAST OF US AND LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAINS, THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK TO THE
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT WITH GULF MOISTURE INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS INTO OUR WESTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME UPPER LEVEL JET ENERGY WILL WORK INTO THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH THE CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING. THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
WEST OF THE AREA, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE STORMS
OVER THE WEEKEND.
WHILE THERE REMAINS DIFFERING SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW THE WESTERN
TROUGH EVOLVES EASTWARD WITH SPEED AN PLACEMENT, MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND UPPER
ENERGY AND THERE MAY BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER CHANCES, HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS
THE GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...LINDENBERG
LONG TERM...LINDENBERG
AVIATION...TITUS
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