281  
FXUS63 KSGF 110531  
AFDSGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO  
1231 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS (15-20% CHANCE)  
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
- MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FRIDAY  
EVENING AND NIGHT, ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A PITTSBURG, KS TO  
OSAGE BEACH LINE.  
 
- RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE  
IS A MARGINAL (1 OF 4) TO SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK FOR LOCALLY  
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION  
REPEATEDLY.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025  
 
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST  
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEEN  
VERTICALLY STUNTED BY SOME DRY AIR ALOFT. A LEE LOW WAS LOCATED  
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, GRADUALLY MEANDERING EAST. MODELS SHOW  
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND  
POTENTIALLY GROWING INTO AN MCS. BASICALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE  
SHOWS IT DIMINISHING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE WESTERN FRINGES  
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS IT RUNS OUT OF INSTABILITY, SO  
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING WITH THIS ROUND. HOWEVER,  
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES END UP AS  
THEY WILL AFFECT POSSIBLE FRIDAY CONVECTION.  
 
FOR FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE  
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A PLUME OF SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE  
RETURN MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED FREE CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN  
OZARKS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MO DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH A LACK  
OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD LIMIT THEIR LONGEVITY OR INTENSITY. WE  
CURRENTLY HAVE 15-20% POPS FOR THIS AREA.  
 
LATEST MODELS TEND TO REIGNITE CONVECTION ALONG THE  
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN  
MISSOURI OR NORTHEAST KANSAS BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.  
STRONG DESTABILIZATION MAY ALLOW FOR RAPID INITIATION INTO  
CLUSTERS OR AN EVENTUAL LINE SEGMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER  
AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE,  
WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/WIND RISK FOR OUR  
FORECAST AREA. TIMING WISE, STORM CHANCES REALLY START TO  
INCREASE AFTER 10 PM AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE  
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF  
THE CWA IN A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP  
TO 60 MPH, ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PITTSBURG, KS TO  
OSAGE BEACH.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT  
THU JUL 10 2025  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL OVER THE  
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, WHILE A SECOND  
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONTENT (PWATS OF 1.6-2.0")  
AND A PERSISTENT SOURCE OF LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED RAIN  
CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. REPEATED CONVECTION MAY OPEN THE  
DOOR FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IF MULTIPLE  
STRONG STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION. THE WEATHER  
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI  
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS IN A SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE  
RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. DETAILS WILL LIKELY BE BETTER RESOLVED AS  
WE GET IN RANGE OF HI-RES CAMS.  
 
MODEL VARIANCE INCREASES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY AND BEYOND,  
THOUGH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN TO DAILY  
RAIN CHANCES AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRANSIT THE UPPER-LEVEL JET.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
 
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING  
UP TO 25 KNOTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED  
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.  
 
 
   
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
KS...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...DIDIO  
LONG TERM...DIDIO  
AVIATION...SORIA  
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