844
FXUS63 KSGF 011938
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY. DAILY HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 90S TO LOW 100S. MAXIMUM
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 105. MINIMAL
OVERNIGHT RELIEF WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S.
- LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT WEEK, WITH HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS AMPLIFYING A RAPID ONSET DROUGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY ALLOW FOR AN EARLY ONSET TO
THE FALL FIRE WEATHER SEASON.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (70-80% CHANCE)
AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO MID-SEPTEMBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE UPPER 90S WITH A NICE
CUMULUS FIELD OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THANKFULLY, WE HAVE A BIT
MORE CLOUD COVER THAN YESTERDAY, WHICH MAY HELP MOST OF THE AREA
STAY BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK. THIS IS DUE TO THE SLIGHT
CHANGE IN AIR MASS FROM YESTERDAY. WE HAVE A BIT MORE MOISTURE
AT THE 800-850MB LEVEL THAT HAS LED TO MORE CLOUD FORMATION
TODAY. WE CAN ALSO SEE THAT EVIDENT IN THIS MORNING'S SOUNDING
BY COMPARING IT TO YESTERDAY'S SOUNDING. DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE
HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL, SITTING IN THE LOW 60S. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES OUTSIDE PROBABLY DON'T FEEL ANY DIFFERENT THAN THE
PREVIOUS PAST FEW DAYS. UNFORTUNATELY THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ON
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WINDS HAVE BEEN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND HAVE GUSTED NEAR 15 MPH
TODAY. THEY WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND STAY JUST
UNDER 10 MPH. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE WARM IN THE MID 70S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME TO INCLUDE SATURDAY
AND ENDS AT 8 PM THAT EVENING. THOUGH, IT IS LIKELY THAT THE
ADVISORY GETS EXTENDED THROUGH LABOR DAY WEEKEND DUE TO THE
LONGEVITY OF THE HEAT AND WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S. THIS HEAT ISN'T EXPECTED TO END ANYTIME SOON. THE REASON
WHY WE HAVEN'T UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IS BECAUSE OF
THE UNCERTAINTY IN DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES. GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A DRIER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WHICH
WOULD IMPACT OUR HEAT INDEX VALUES. THE PAST FEW AFTERNOONS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TODAY
DUE TO THE SMALL BIT OF MOISTURE THAT HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA.
WITH THAT IN MIND, THIS MAY KEEP OUR HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW
EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA (HI OF 110 DEGREES). THOUGH, IT
WON'T CHANGE THE FACT OF IT'LL STILL FEEL HOT IF YOU'RE
PARTICIPATING IN ANY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND. REMEMBER
THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A MAJOR TO
EXTREME HEATRISK ACROSS OUR AREA. BE SURE TO HYDRATE AND TAKE
BREAKS FROM THE HEAT THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY WITH NO OVERNIGHT
RELIEF.
VERY LOW-END POPS OF 15-30% MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS A
WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES
WON'T CHANGE MUCH TO START NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS STILL IN THE
90S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSISTING.
WIND GUSTS WILL BE 15 MPH OR LESS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
SEPTEMBER 1:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 99/1953
KUNO: 101/2000
SEPTEMBER 2:
KSGF: 101/2000
KJLN: 105/2000
KVIH: 99/1899
SEPTEMBER 3:
KSGF: 102/2000
KJLN: 102/1954
KVIH: 100/1897
SEPTEMBER 4:
KJLN: 102/1954
SEPTEMBER 5:
KSGF: 99/1998
KJLN: 103/1998
SEPTEMBER 6:
KJLN: 101/1954
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES (KSGF ONLY):
SEPTEMBER 1:
KSGF: 77/1922
SEPTEMBER 2:
KSGF: 76/1922
SEPTEMBER 3:
KSGF: 74/2011
SEPTEMBER 4:
KSGF: 75/1913
SEPTEMBER 5:
KSGF: 76/1998
SEPTEMBER 6:
KSGF: 76/1925
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-
077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...SORIA
CLIMATE...TITUS/CAMDEN
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