332
FXUS63 KSGF 211743
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1143 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN THE EASTERN OZARKS WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT FROM WEST TO EAST, CLEARING THE AREA BY 9 AM
THIS MORNING.
- 60-80% CHANCE OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF A JOPLIN TO EMINENCE
LINE WHERE AT LEAST A 50% CHANCE OF 5 INCHES OF SNOW EXISTS.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT AMOUNTS, WITH A SHARP
ACCUMULATION CUT-OFF POSSIBLE, EVEN IN THE WATCH AREA.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SINGLE
DIGIT LOWS WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO WILL BE LIKELY EACH
MORNING THIS WEEKEND (70-95% CHANCE).
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY, WHICH WILL EXTEND THE TIME IT TAKES FOR ANY SNOW
ON THE GROUND TO CLEAR.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO STAY STAGNANT BUT DYNAMIC WITH
DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA/CONUS. IN MID-
LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, A FEW LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES CAN BE
SEEN, WITH THE MOST OBVIOUS ONE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KS. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS LOCATED NOT TOO FAR FROM THE SHORTWAVE,
STRETCHING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL IA, DOWN INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ANDERSON TO EMINENCE.
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE EXIT THE AREA THIS MORNING:
THESE SHOWERS/DRIZZLES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING. WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING, MOST
AREAS HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER, COLD HOLES AND
VALLEYS IN THE EASTERN OZARKS (ESPECIALLY SHANNON COUNTY) ARE
SLOW TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING. FOR EXAMPLE, ALLEY SPRING IS STILL
READING 27 F. FOR THAT REASON, ANY SHOWERS THAT MOVE OVER LOW-
LYING AREAS IN THE EASTERN OZARKS MAY FREEZE TO SURFACES,
ESPECIALLY IF ELEVATED LIKE BRIDGES, OVERPASSES, AND/OR DORMANT
CAR WIND SHIELDS. BY THE MORNING COMMUTE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM ABOVE FREEZING IN ALL AREAS, SO LITTLE IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED, BUT BE CAREFUL IF YOU LIVE IN LOW-LYING AREAS AND ARE
OUT AND ABOUT BEFORE SUNRISE.
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY:
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, HIGHS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 40S, WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES TOWARD CENTRAL MISSOURI. LOWS, HOWEVER, WILL BE
MARGINALLY COOLER IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. THEN, HEIGHTS
ALOFT MODESTLY RISE BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE AND AHEAD OF
THE INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S
THURSDAY.
AS NIGHT FALLS, THOUGH, A SLOWLY STRENGTHENING JET STREAK OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE PULLING DOWN AN ARCTIC SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA. THIS WILL PULL A COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH OUR AREA, BRINGING LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN TOWARD CENTRAL MO, TO THE LOWER 20S ALONG
THE SOUTHERN MO BORDER.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
60-80% CHANCE OF SNOW THIS WEEKEND:
CONFIDENCE HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING IN MOST LOCATIONS IN
OUR CWA AT LEAST SEEING SOME SNOW THIS WEEKEND. AFTER A
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN ENSEMBLE RUNS ABOUT 24-48 HOURS AGO, THE
PAST COUPLE RUNS OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED BACK NORTH.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THIS IS BECAUSE MOST MEMBERS ARE
STARTING TO LEAN TOWARD THE "STRONGER WAVE PHASING" SCENARIO
DISCUSSED IN PAST AFDS. IN SHORT, THIS MEANS THAT THE EASTERN
PACIFIC CLOSED LOW IS BEING FAVORED TO ABSORB BETTER WITH THE
ARCTIC WAVE, INJECTING MORE ENERGY INTO THE OVERALL SYSTEM, AND
BUMPING THE STORM NORTHWARD WITH HIGHER QPF VALUES. AS
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED, THESE WIGGLES IN TRACK, EVEN IN ENSEMBLE
MEANS, WILL CONTINUE AS GLOBAL MODELS ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE THE
NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT CLOSED LOW OUT IN THE OCEAN. HURRICANE
HUNTERS ARE CURRENTLY OUT IN THAT AREA TO SAMPLE THE CLOSED
LOW, SO HOPEFULLY OUR NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS WILL BE "CLOSER TO THE
TRUTH". BUT FOR NOW, EXPECT SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN STORM TRACK
AND SNOW PROBABILITIES AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY.
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND:
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY JUST DISCUSSED, THERE IS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE NOW FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH TO BE ISSUED FOR
COUNTIES ALONG THE MO/AR AND KS/OK BORDER, PLUS JASPER, NEWTON,
LAWRENCE, CHRISTIAN, DOUGLAS, AND SHANNON COUNTIES. WITHIN THESE
COUNTIES, LATEST 00Z LREF GUIDANCE GIVES A GREATER THAN 50%
CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 5 INCHES OF SNOW. THE WINTER STORM WATCH
DELINEATION WAS ACTUALLY OUTLINED WHERE THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF
THE 00Z LREF HIT 5 INCHES OF SNOW (THIS MEANS THE PERCENT CHANCE
OF >5 INCHES WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IS >75%) ALONG WITH EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX VALUES >0.8 WITH AT LEAST ONE SHIFT OF THE TAIL.
THIS DECISION WAS MADE BASED ON THE TENDENCY FOR EVEN THE LREF
MEAN TO MAKE LARGE SHIFTS IN LOCATION BASED ON HOW TO EPAC
CLOSED LOW IS RESOLVED. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS STILL A
REASONABLE SCENARIO WHERE THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
CREATES SUCH A SHARP PRESSURE/TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH DRY AIR
MOVING SOUTHWARD THAT A VERY SHARP ACCUMULATION CUT-OFF COULD
OCCUR WITHIN A COUNTY OR TWO OF SPACE. THE GFS IS A GOOD VISUAL
REPRESENTATION OF THIS SCENARIO WITH A RANGE FROM 0-6 INCHES
SPANNING THE WIDTH OF GREENE COUNTY. THIS IS A GLOBAL MODEL AS
WELL, SO WHEN HI- RESOLUTION MODELS COME IN, THIS CUT- OFF COULD
BE EVEN SHARPER. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY IN PLAY, THE WINTER
STORM WATCH COUNTIES WERE "PLAYED SAFE", LEANING TOWARD THE MORE
LIKELY PLACES TO SEE ACCUMULATION SNOW, RATHER THAN THE "MORE
PROBABLE" PLACES.
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS THIS WEEKEND:
SPEAKING OF THE ARCTIC HIGH, THERE IS MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
DANGEROUS COLD THIS WEEKEND. NBM SPREADS HAVE SHRUNK FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY, DEPICTING PRETTY GOOD CONFIDENCE IN SINGLE DIGITS
LOWS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SINGLE DIGIT TO LOWER TEEN
HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS MEANS WE COULD SEE AT LEAST 36
HOURS OF TEMPERATURES BELOW 10 F. WITH SUCH LOW TEMPERATURES,
WIND CHILLS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 0 F FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND (70-95% CHANCE).
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, THERE IS
ALSO INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN EXTREME COLD AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THE EVENT. THE EXTREME FORECAST INDEX HAS MUCH OF OUR AREA
BETWEEN 0.9-0.99, WHICH MEANS 90-99% OF ENS MODEL MEMBERS ARE
FORECASTING TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ANY CLIMATOLOGICAL
REFORECASTS. THERE IS ALSO A SHIFT OF THE TAIL, INDICATING SOME
MODELS ARE EVEN EXTREMELY LOW TEMPERATURES. THE 25TH PERCENTILE
OF THE NBM PUTS LOWS BETWEEN -3 AND -10 F SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY NIGHT.
IT SHOULD COME AS NO SURPRISE, THEN, THAT A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY, OR EVEN AN EXTREME COLD WARNING, MAY BECOME NECESSARY
AS WE DRAW NEAR. THE LREF GIVES A 40-60% CHANCE FOR WIND CHILLS
BELOW -10 F SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING (COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA), AND A 15-25% CHANCE OF WIND CHILLS BELOW -20
F (EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA). THIS IS DANGEROUS COLD
POTENTIAL, SO PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS CONFIDENCE
INCREASES FOR THE POTENTIAL EXTREME SCENARIOS.
EXTENDED TIME FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING THROUGH TUESDAY:
EXTREME COLD POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT PERIODS ON THE
WEEKEND. OF PARTICULAR NOTE, THOUGH, IS THAT WE ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW FREEZING FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS MEANS THAT ANY SNOW THAT DOES FALL WILL STICK AROUND FOR A
LOT LONGER. SO ANY AREAS THAT SEE IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL COULD
EXPERIENCE LINGERING IMPACTS FOR SEVERAL DAYS (E.G., DIFFICULTY
CLEARING SNOW). JUST ANOTHER POTENTIAL IMPACT TO PREPARE FOR AS
MOST SNOW EVENTS IN THE OZARKS BEGIN MELTING SHORTLY AFTER THE
EVENT. IN THIS CASE, SNOW DEPTH WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER. NBM
HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREADS PAST TUESDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
TO THE UPPER 30S, SO THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL THAT THE STRETCH
OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES LASTS LONGER THAN TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING FOR MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...TITUS
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