876
FXUS63 KSGF 091708
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1208 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.
POTENTIAL FOR RECORD HIGHS.
- WIDESPREAD 80-100% THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. PRIMARY HAZARD IS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, WITH
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ADDITIONAL
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- COOLER BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MID-WEEK, WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND ACCOMPANIED BY A DRIER STRETCH OF
WEATHER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
THIS MORNING:
ZONAL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY IN NATURE THROUGH
THIS MORNING AND INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. AS A RESULT, SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES THROUGH
THIS MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT BOTH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING MOISTURE. BEFORE THIS, COOLER TEMPERATURES LINGER
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH SOME
LOCATIONS DIPPING INTO THE LOWER 40S. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR
SOME PATCHY FOG, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS THROUGH
SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT:
AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO RAPIDLY WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S, TO PERHAPS 80
IN SOME LOCATIONS. THIS INTRODUCES THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR RECORD
HIGHS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION). EXPECT AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS TO
APPROACH 25 TO 35 MPH. THE LATEST NBM AND HREF GUIDANCE DEPICT
THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES (30-50%) FOR EXCEEDING 35 MPH IN AN
AREA ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 65. ADDITIONALLY, MOISTURE WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S. THIS WILL MAKE IT FEEL MORE LIKE APRIL AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH TODAY. MEANWHILE, THE NEXT SYSTEM SLOWLY TAKES SHAPE
ACROSS THE BAJA, WITH A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH THE
FLOW AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE. LATEST CAMS LIMIT
SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WITH THIS PASSING SHORTWAVE,
KEEPING ISOLATED ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR ANY
POP ADJUSTMENTS ALONG OUR THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT MOST AREAS LIKELY REMAIN DRY TODAY.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS RATHER MILD IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY:
ON TUESDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE AS IT
TRANSITIONS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
OVERSPREADS THE OPEN WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY, AS SEEN WITH PWATS
APPROACHING 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES (99TH PERCENTILE OR HIGHER FOR
EARLY MARCH). MEANWHILE, LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES HIGHLIGHT A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH 50-80%
PROBABILITIES FOR >500 J/KG MUCAPE AND >35 KNOTS 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR. LATEST HREF SUGGEST UPWARDS OF 1500 TO 2500 MUCAPE
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR, THOUGH A
LINGERING CAP MAY REMAIN A FACTOR. EARLY INDICATIONS SUGGEST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO OVERSPREAD THE WARM
SECTOR THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH THE
FORCING/LIFT IS ABSENT THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR. THIS CAN BE
CONCEPTUALIZED WITH THE BETTER COVERAGE NORTH AND EAST ALONG THE
WARM FRONT AND FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ALONG A DRYLINE. FOR THIS
REASON, WILL JUST CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (30-50%) THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
UNCERTAINTY IN SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG LIFT.
WHILE LOW CONFIDENCE, THE ENVIRONMENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS, WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS CAPTURED IN THE SPC'S LATEST DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK (2
OF 5) DRAPED THROUGH THE AREA.
AS WE PROGRESS INTO TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, AMPLE FORCING ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL
SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
(80-100%), WITH AN ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TURNS TOWARDS DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
RISK INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITHIN ANY BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG THE
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LIKEWISE TO THE AFTERNOON, THERE IS STILL
LINGERING UNCERTAINTY ON THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IF THE ENVIRONMENT GETS WORKED OVER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT GRADUALLY SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BEFORE EXITING SOME
TIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS WE LOOK TO PIN DOWN MORE DETAILS WITH
REGARDS TO SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO FEATURE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE GIVEN THE TRENDS
IN GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SLOWER FRONTAL PASSAGE. MUCH OF THE
OZARKS REGION REMAINS SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS RAINFALL LAST
WEEK, ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE LAST 7 DAYS. WITH
VEGETATION STILL DORMANT IN EARLY MARCH AND SATURATED SOILS,
THERE IS INCREASING CONCERN FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE OVER 6 HOUR PERIODS REMAIN LOWER GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING ALONG
ALREADY ELEVATED WATERWAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE PROGGED TO
APPROACH 1 TO 1.5 INCHES AREAWIDE, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS
GIVEN THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS AND TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY:
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MID-WEEK, THE FORECAST BECOMES RATHER
BENIGN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THIS PATTERN
CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY IN NATURE THROUGH
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
A DRIER STRETCH OF WEATHER PERSISTING ACROSS THE AREA. A BIT
COOLER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60,
BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE 70S.
THE NEXT SYSTEM BEYOND MID-WEEK WILL BE A POTENTIAL PATTERN
CHANGE AS ENSEMBLES ARE SUGGESTING A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
THERE WILL BE SOME PASSING LOW LEVEL CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES FOR BBG. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 30KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT
WITH AN INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
LIKELY AT THE SITES TUESDAY MORNING. THE CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS
BELOW 30 PERCENT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9:
KSGF: 81/1974
KJLN: 81/2017
KVIH: 78/1974
MARCH 10:
KSGF: 80/1955
KJLN: 82/1972
KVIH: 85/1955
KUNO: 82/1995
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
CLIMATE...PEREZ
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