566
FXUS63 KSGF 270912
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
312 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WITH BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S, AND LOWS IN THE 20S TO
LOW 30S.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES (80% TO 95%) FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN AS RAIN WITH AREAS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 SEEING SOME BRIEF SNOW OR RAIN-SNOW MIX
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM COULD BRING WINTER PRECIP TO THE AREA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
- BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
DECEMBER.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA IN A NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN. PASSING MID LEVEL ENERGY AND UPPER JET FORCING HAS
CREATED SOME RADAR ECHOES OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI TONIGHT HOWEVER THE ATMOSPHERE HAS JUST BEEN TOO DRY
FOR MUCH IF ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. THE 00Z KSGF SOUNDING
MEASURED A PW VALUE OF 0.25IN WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER
AROUND 850MB. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE BEEN RUNNING
ABOUT 8-15 DEGREES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WAS ALSO
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE KEPT
TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 30S.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: OVERALL A COLD BUT DRY THANKSGIVING DAY
IS EXPECTED. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR JOPLIN AND FAR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI MAY REACH 50
DEGREES. AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT, A DRY
AIRMASS, CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
FALL RAPIDLY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WOULD EXPECT
THE VALLEYS AND WIND PROTECTED AREAS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS.
FRIDAY: A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED HOWEVER HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA THEREFORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND GRADUALLY INCREASE. A 10 DEGREE TEMP
GRADIENT IS LIKELY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NORTHEAST OF
SPRINGFIELD WITH LOW 50S SOUTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST THU NOV 27 2025
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY (FIRST STORM SYSTEM): ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT INTO
THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL CAUSE A SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
KANSAS. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NOSE INTO THE AREA. WHILE THE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY START OFF
DRY, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO MOISTEN FROM THE TOP DOWN WITH
AN AREA OF PRECIP DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS AND INCOMING CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL
KEEP TEMPS LEVEL OR SLIGHTLY RISING. MOST PLACES, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN OZARKS SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AT THE
START OF THE PRECIP EVENT. IT IS THESE AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY
65, AND ESPECIALLY NEAR/EAST OF HIGHWAY 63 WHERE WE SEE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
FROM A CONCEPTUAL MODEL STANDPOINT, LOW LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE HISTORICALLY
LIMITING FACTORS FOR ANY PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOWFALL. THE LREF MEAN
850MB 0C ISOTHERM FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IS CURRENTLY
AROUND THE ROLLA/VICHY AREA HOWEVER THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
ON WHERE THIS SETS UP. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE STRONG LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND WHEN COMBINED WITH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD
OF WETBULBING, COULD OFFSET THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF WET SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
THIS WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 63 CORRIDOR. SURFACE
TEMPS WOULD BE VERY CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING
THEREFORE IF THE SNOW RATES ARE HEAVY ENOUGH THEN A QUICK BURST
OF MEASURABLE SNOW COULD OCCUR, MAINLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED
AREAS, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACTS
AT THIS TIME WITH PROB WSSI VALUES FOR MINOR IMPACTS LESS THAN
30 PERCENT.
LATEST NBM SNOW PROBS FOR A DUSTING OR MORE ARE
AROUND 40-50% FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 63
CORRIDOR. THESE PERCENTAGES THEN INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY THE
FURTHER NORTHEAST OF THE AREA YOU GO. THE LATEST ECMWF EFI
SHIFT OF TAILS TOOL DOES SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
SNOW EVENT AS FAR SOUTH AS NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THE SURFACE
AND 850MB LOWS BOTH LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA WHICH WILL
ALSO KEEP THE HIGHER SNOW CHANCES OUT OF THE AREA. THOSE
TRAVELING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE
SITUATION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
WE ARE CURRENTLY OUTSIDE OF THE RANGE OF HIGH RES MODELS WHICH
CAN BETTER RESOLVE THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL ENVIRONMENT. THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM IS ALSO STILL OFF THE WASHINGTON COAST AND IS ALSO
NOT BEING SAMPLED FULLY YET BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. THEREFORE
A WORD OF CAUTION ON USING ANY DETERMINISTIC SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
AT THIS TIME. WE WILL ENTER THE HIGH RES REALM TODAY WHICH WILL
HELP US HONE IN ON THAT LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BETTER.
THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD BE LIQUID FOR SATURDAY, WHICH IS SHAPING
UP TO BE A COLD, RAINY, AND BREEZY DAY. GUSTY SOUTH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S. TOTAL LIQUID AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD REACH 1 INCH,
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF SPRINGFIELD. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IS IN THE 0.5 TO 0.75IN RANGE.
BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WHICH WILL SEND TEMPS BACK BELOW
FREEZING FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW, THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT WHERE WE SEE A
QUICK CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BEFORE PRECIP ENDS. CURRENTLY NOT
SEEING A LONG ENOUGH RESIDENCE TIME FOR ANY ISSUES BUT WILL
MONITOR IT.
SUNDAY: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS. LATEST NBM CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S. THIS WILL SET UP A
COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS FOR MANY AREAS.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (POTENTIAL SECOND STORM SYSTEM): ENSEMBLE
CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH VARIANCE WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE WESTERN US AND ROCKIES.
THEREFORE TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES WHICH LEADS TO A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THERE ARE SOME SIGNALS THAT THE INCOMING
SHORTWAVE, ONCE IT DOES MOVE OUT, COULD CAUSE SOME WINTRY PRECIP
FOR THE AREA HOWEVER CURRENTLY PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN LESS THAN
30 PERCENT. IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOO FAR SOUTH THEN THE AREA
COULD GET MOISTURE ROBBED. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COLD ALOFT
ACROSS OUR AREA SO WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS/EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST WED NOV 26 2025
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH
12Z THEN SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST,
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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