417
FXUS63 KSGF 011055
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
555 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN OZARKS SATURDAY NIGHT.
- 50-70% SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
OVERALL A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD, BUT COULD SEE SOME PERIODS OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVE DOWN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT. CURRENTLY, CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 15% AND WOULD FAVOR
CENTRAL MO FOR HIGHEST POTENTIAL.
FROST POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN OZARKS SATURDAY NIGHT.
- IMPACTS: POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
- DETAILS: LOWS IN THE MID 30S AND FROST POTENTIAL IN AREAS
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-44 AND EAST OF HWY 65.
- CONFIDENCE: NBM PROBABILITIES OF MIN TEMPS < 36 IS 40-60% IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
50-70% SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT:
- IMPACTS: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE RISK.
- DETAILS: TIMING DIFFERENCES (AS SHOWN IN CLUSTER ANALYSIS)
LEADS TO POTENTIAL FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT GREATEST CHANCES ARE ON TUESDAY.
- CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SEEING PRECIPITATION. LOW
CONFIDENCE (<15% FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY).
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: NW FLOW WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CONUS. THIS WILL LEAD TO 50-70% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH A < 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER, BOTH OF WHICH
AREA HIGHEST ON TUESDAY. SEVERE STORM CHANCES ARE SHOWN BY
SOME OF THE AI/ML GUIDANCE. TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY PUSH THE
THREAT EARLIER OR LATER AND ALSO MAY CHANGE THERMODYNAMICS
AND INCREASE/DECREASE SEVERE CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...TITUS
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