774
FXUS63 KSGF 112248
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
448 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMUP TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINS MONDAY THEN
COOLER AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-44. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST
UP TO 25 MPH AND MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 30-40% RANGE.
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCOMING COLD
FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 40S WITH SUNNY SKIES AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITS OVER THE CENTRAL US. SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR TONIGHT AND LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE MID 20S. WINDS SWITCH
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AND WILL BRING A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN MOISTURE FOR TOMORROW.
ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 50S AND 60S FOR MONDAY AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION INCREASES.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 123 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON TUESDAY AND WILL SEND OUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO CENTRAL MO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A 15-20% CHANCE FOR
RAIN MOSTLY OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN MO. DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE AS THE MAIN TROUGH SLOWLY PUSHES
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH WITH MINIMUM
RH VALUES IN THE IN THE 30-40% RANGE. THUS, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-44 ON TUESDAY. BURNING IS DISCOURAGED.
THEN, A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING EVEN
STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. MODEL
ENSEMBLES ARE STILL INCONCLUSIVE ON HOW STRONG THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE THAT MOVES IN WITH THAT FRONT NEXT WEEK. FOR
EXAMPLE, THE RANGE FOR THURSDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE FOR
SPRINGFIELD IS EITHER A HIGH OF 37 OR 50 DEGREES. DESPITE NOT
KNOWING THE EXACT STRENGTH OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
MORE SEASONAL VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR. HIGHS IN
THE 30S ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. IT'S STILL FORECAST FOR MOST
OF THE MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH
AND EAST OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 447 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING HOWEVER A WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND ON MONDAY WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND 18KTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SORIA
LONG TERM...SORIA
AVIATION...BURCHFIELD
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