434
FXUS63 KSGF 300900
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN NEAR SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE OZARKS.
- A SYSTEM WILL BRING A 35-70% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS FAVOR SNOW FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE,
BUT A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, AND/OR SLEET
COULD OCCUR OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IS LIMITED, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME
AREAS TO ONLY SEE TRACE AMOUNTS.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES TRENDING UPWARD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, CURRENTLY AT 30-40%. MODEL SPREAD IS CURRENTLY STILL
TOO HIGH TO PUT ANY CERTAINTY TO FORECAST PRECIPITATION TYPES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
BREEZY WINDS & COLD AIR RESULT IN NEAR SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS:
CURRENT TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS PUT SW MO/SE KS DOWN INTO THE
MIDDLE 20S AS A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CONTINUED COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL FURTHER BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOWER
20S EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH WINDS CONTINUING TO BE AROUND 10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH, WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS.
WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER THIS MORNING, PERSISTENT
NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH POLAR SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THE MIDWEST WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
QUITE COLD TODAY IN THE LOWER 30S. THEN, LOWS TONIGHT CONTINUE
TO BE COLD IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S WITHIN A CONTINUED
NORTHERLY FLOW REGIME.
30-40% CHANCE OF SCATTERED BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION MID-DAY MONDAY:
THE DRY WEATHER WILL NOT LAST LONG, THOUGH, AS ANOTHER SYSTEM
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES (AS EVIDENCED BY WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY) IS ALREADY POISED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, PARTICULAR FOR OUR AREA IN THE
OZARKS, CONTINUES TO BE TRICKY AS WE GET POSITIONED BETWEEN THE
TWO "CORES" INVOLVED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE FIRST CORE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, BRINGING A SWATH OF SNOW TO KS/NE/NORTH MO/SOUTH IA.
THE SECOND CORE IS ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
LIFTING OUT OF MEXICO AND THE GULF ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE COAST. THIS CORE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
RAIN IN EAST TX AND LA, WITH FREEZING RAIN IN ARKANSAS. THIS THE
MOKSAROK AND OZARKS REGION IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN SYSTEM. DUE TO STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
DOWNSTREAM POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE CORES, AIR
WILL STILL BE RISING IN THIS "IN BETWEEN" REGION, BUT GIVEN A
SHARP DRY LAYER AROUND 850-600 MB IN MODEL SOUNDINGS, THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION CAN BE GENERATED FROM THIS
RISING AIR DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
WITH ALL THAT CONTEXT, AS THE BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE ASCENT BEGINS
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS, COVERAGE OF
ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE DETERMINED BY HOW QUICKLY THE LOW-
LEVELS CAN MOISTEN. FOR THAT REASON, THERE IS ONLY A 30-40%
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IF THE STRONG
700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION CAN OVERCOME LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR, WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERY PRECIPITATION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE HREF GIVING A 50-100% CHANCE FOR <32 F
ACROSS THE AREA, MUCH OF THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW
SAVE FOR AREAS IN EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI (GENERALLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 160 CORRIDOR) WHERE LIGHT SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS A WARM NOSE ADVECTS OVER THE BELOW
FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SHOWERS
WOULD BE LIGHT IN NATURE, CREATING LITTLE ACCUMULATION LATE
MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. THAT SAID, SOME WINTRY
DRIVING CONDITIONS WOULD BE EXPERIENCED BENEATH ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS, SO USING CAUTION WHILE DRIVING IS RECOMMENDED.
40-70% CHANCE FOR A BAND OF SNOW TO MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY:
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COMES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TRAVERSES MISSOURI. WITHIN THE JET CORE, STRONG 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS LOOKS TO FORCE A SW TO NE ORIENTED BAND OF SNOW
THAT WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 4 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS BAND, BUT
GENERALLY, THE FURTHER NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL MO YOU GO, THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR GREATER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE SNOW BAND
AS ITS FURTHER INTO THE COLDER AIR. THE NBM 25TH-75TH
ACCUMULATIONS RANGE FROM 0 TO 1 INCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
INCREASING TO 0.5-2 INCHES ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54. 10% OF
THE MODEL MEMBERS SHOW A WORST CASE SCENARIO OF 2-3 INCHES
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60.
CAMS ARE ALSO NOT OVERLY BULLISH ON RATES WITH THIS BAND DUE TO
THE QUICK-MOVING NATURE. THAT SAID, 0.5-1 IN/HR RATES WOULD BE
THE UPPER-END OF THE SPECTRUM, WHICH COULD PUT DOWN SOME LIGHT
ROAD ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE EVENING COMMUTES.
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MO:
DURING THIS PERIOD, LIGHT SLEET AND/OR FREEZING RAIN WILL STILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL MO. ANALYSIS OF
HREF/REFS SOUNDING PLUMES FAVORS SLEET A BIT MORE THAN FREEZING
RAIN AS LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE WARM NOSE ARE A BIT MORE
ISOTHERMAL, LEADING TO A DEEPER NEAR-SURFACE COLD LAYER.
NEVERTHELESS, A MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN IS STILL WARRANTED IF
ANY SHIFTS IN THE STORM TRACKS OCCUR.
IF FREEZING RAIN DOES OCCUR, AMOUNTS OF 0.01-0.05" SEEM MOST
PLAUSIBLE, WHICH IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH FOR SLICK SURFACES, SO
THOSE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 160 CORRIDOR WILL NEED TO BE EXTRA
CAUTIOUS IF OUT DRIVING.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN NOV 30 2025
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK:
FOLLOWING MONDAY'S SYSTEM, NBM TEMPERATURE SPREADS POINT TO
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, SAVE FOR A BRIEF WARM-UP
WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS RISE BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM. HIGHS
TUESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S, WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. WEDNESDAY IS THE BRIEF WARM-UP
TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO
HAVE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES AS A DRY COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOWER
20S, WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR 0 F TOWARD CENTRAL MO. THURSDAY'S
HIGHS DO NOT GET VERY WARM WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
MIDDLE 30S. ANOTHER WARM-UP IS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THE NEXT SYSTEM EVOLVES AT
THE END OF THE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN NEXT SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY:
IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, WE HAVE MENTIONED HOW MODEL SPREAD WAS
HIGH LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT A SIGNAL IN DETERMINISTICS BEING
PRESENT FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM AT SOME POINT. WELL, MODELS ARE
STARTING TO CONVERGE A LITTLE BIT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY (30-40%
CHANCE). WHILE WE'RE GETTING A BETTER IDEA OF ROUGH TIMING, LREF
SOUNDING PROFILES ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE, REVEALING LITTLE
CERTAINTY IN WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WE COULD SEE FROM THIS
SYSTEM. KEEP IN TOUCH WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR MORE
DETAILS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SAT NOV 29 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
BLANKET OF MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES, BUT WITH A CLEARING AND
LIFTING TREND THAT PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS,
CIG CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THROUGH 13Z.
CONDITIONS HAVE A MEDIUM HIGH (70-80% CHANCE) OF IMPROVING TO
VFR BY 13Z, BUT SOME RAPID REFRESH MODELS WANT TO HOLD ONTO MVFR
CIGS, ESPECIALLY AT SGF. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THIS
POTENTIAL, THOUGH GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS WITH CLOUDS
CLEARING FROM NW TO SE, WOULD LEAN MORE TOWARDS VFR BECOMING
PREVALENT AFTER 13Z.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL STAY AT 10-15 KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS THROUGH 13Z. WINDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 00Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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