611
FXUS63 KSGF 141020
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
420 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S TODAY AND
SATURDAY (10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE). RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN JEOPARDY TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- THOUGH DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN, 30-40% CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE IN
THE FORECAST FOR NEXT MONDAY. HIGHER RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURN
BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE REGION TODAY AND SATURDAY. A
WARMER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 12 TO 16C RANGE TODAY, WHICH WILL SUPPORT
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THERE
COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG OVERNIGHT, BUT THE BETTER
POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA. MOISTURE WILL ALSO
ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH THE WARM AIR MASS, AND SOME LOWER
CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD CLEAR BY SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
LOW LYING AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION ON SATURDAY WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 17 TO 19C RANGE SUPPORTING
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK. SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, FLATTENING AND PUSHING
THE RIDGE BACK TO WEST INTO SUNDAY. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE, AND THE BETTER UPPER-LEVEL LIFT WILL BE
NORTH OF THE AREA, SO EXPECTING A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, BUT WITH THE RIDGE OFF BUILDING BACK JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA, HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSOURI TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WHERE IT WILL CONTINUE
TO DIG INTO SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY, IT WILL PIVOT AND GET SCOOPED
UP TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS AS A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PUSHES TOWARDS THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL PLACE A TROUGH
OVER BOTH COASTS, LEAVING THE CENTRAL U.S. UNDER UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING, WHICH THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO UNDERCUT AS
IT MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS DIFFER ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE
SHORTWAVE AS IT PUSHES INTO THE SYNOPTIC RIDGE. SOME BRING IT
EAST ACROSS OUR AREA INTO MISSOURI LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
WHERE OTHERS TAKE IT NORTH OF OUR AREA INTO IOWA, AND SOME
MEMBERS TRACK ARE IN BETWEEN. THE RIDGE SHOULD BE STRONGER THAN
THE UNDERCUTTING SHORTWAVE, SO IT SHOULD SHEAR WITH TIME AND
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST IF IT MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THEREFORE, OVERALL LIFT WILL BE MOVE WEAKER SIDE AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, BUT SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES COULD RANGE LARGER ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DEPENDING
ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRUCTURE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. IF
THE TROUGH CAN REMOVE OVER THE AREA HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S WOULD BE MORE LIKELY, BUT IF THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AND
THE TROUGH GOES NORTH OF THE AREA, HIGHS IN THE 70S WOULD BE
POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH THE NBM
VALUES, WHICH ARE IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S, FOR HIGHS ON
MONDAY WITH THE WARMEST READINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THEN CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST. DIFFERENCES CONTINUE BETWEEN THE
ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRUCTURE OF THE
TROUGH AS IT MOVES. THE REGION WILL BE IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. WITH THE TROUGH/UPPER-LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY MOVING EAST MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK, THERE COULD BE
ROUNDS OF RAIN AT TIMES.
THE TIMING AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND STRUCTURE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND THE TIMING OF
ANY WAVES MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AHEAD OF IT. THERE COULD
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THIS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA,
POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, BUT
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS SO THE TRACK COULD STILL SHIFT FURTHER
NORTH OR SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE LATER
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE AT TIMES IN TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS MORNING
AND OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
OCCUR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT GENERALLY REMAINING AT 10KT OR
LESS. SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE HOUR NIGHT HOURS, BUT IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TOO.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
FOR CONTEXT, AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS FOR MIDDLE
NOVEMBER ARE IN THE 57-60 DEGREE RANGE.
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
NOVEMBER 14:
KSGF: 78/1973
KJLN: 79/1964
KVIH: 75/1960
KUNO: 79/1999
NOVEMBER 15:
KSGF: 78/1964
KJLN: 77/1950
KVIH: 79/1955
KUNO: 81/1955
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
CLIMATE...BURCHFIELD
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