015
FXUS63 KSGF 120014
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
714 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
BETTER CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA.
- RELATIVELY DRIER WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
SCATTERED STORMS HAVE DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA IN
ARKANSAS ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION AND SOME UNCAPPED
INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI. AS THE
TROUGH MOVES SOUTH SOME SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
OVER ALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED. THE BETTER SEVERE
RISK WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL THE
RISK, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A FEW LIGHT SHOWER COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 80S ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
WHERE MORE CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE 60S. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE
MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 AGAIN ON SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LOWER ON SUNDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX IN VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE
LOWER 90S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO
REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND COULD BRING
SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA AT TIMES THESE DAYS TO PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK
BETWEEN THE MEMBERS, IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK
THE RAIN CHANCES WOULD DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA VERSUS A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
WITH THIS SYSTEM EVEN WITH A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK.
LATE NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S OCCURRING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 714 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...TITUS
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