934
FXUS63 KSGF 140612
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
112 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THURSDAY AS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. A RISK FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS
SYSTEM.
- PATTERN CHANGE INCOMING WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY UP TO 35 MPH. PATCHY FROST MAY
OCCUR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ARIZONA AND UTAH
EARLY THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW A FRONT IS
LOCATED FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO THE NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI CURRENTLY. THE LOW WILL SLOW AND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALLED IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS DEVELOPED FROM SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN
MISSOURI ALONG THE FRONT AND THESE STORMS PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 TO 40 MPH COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA AS DEWPOINTS AROUND 70
ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
AROUND 2" ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING. OVERALL
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY TO THE EAST
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING, BUT LOCALIZED TRAINING WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND NORTH OF I-44. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LOWER
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT SO LIFT WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AND SOME PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE IN THUNDER THIS EVENING
WILL BE LIMITED. WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT COOL MUCH THE REST OF THE DAY, AND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
NOT WARM MUCH DURING THE DAY TODAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO
THE LOWER/MID 80S ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
TODAY.
TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL START TO MOVE MORE TO THE
NORTHEAST AND UNCAPPED INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1300 J/KG WILL
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER AND NOT AS DEEP TO THE EAST
AS THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE FURTHER FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO
THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP, AND COULD DEVELOP INTO BANDS OR LINES AND THERE COULD
BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING. THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK IS LOW,
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THE GREATEST RISK TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY AND WILL MERGE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT EAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT, THOUGH COVERAGE IN THE ACTIVITY COULD BECOME MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST.
THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AS
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN OCCUR, THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS STILL
EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 65 AND NORTH OF I-44. WHERE
TRAINING OF STORMS BANDS OF 2 TO 4" OF RAINFALL WITH VERY
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO 5 TO 6" STILL POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE THESE
BANDS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 2" CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
LOWER AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY TO THE EAST.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WITH A COOLER AIR MASS MOVING OVER THE AREA.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE COOLER AIR MASS ON FRIDAY, AS GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TO THE
LOWER 40S ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. SOME PATCHY FRONT COULD
BE POSSIBLE BOTH MORNINGS IN VALLEYS AND PROTECTED AREAS.
THE ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A DRIER AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE SO MAINLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
OCCUR WITH THE DISTURBANCE BUT A FEW SPRINKLES/LIGHT RAIN COULD
OCCUR BUT LOW CHANCE (LESS THEN 15%).
A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGHS
WARM INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
RETURNING BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS CURRENTLY IN EAST CENTRAL KANSAS/WEST CENTRAL
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
IMPACT THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND BE GUSTY FOR A SHORT PERIOD WITH
THE STORMS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA AT TIMES WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
CEILINGS WILL LOWER BEHIND THE STORMS, ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH LOWER
VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN ANY RAIN/DRIZZLE THAT CAN
DEVELOP.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KSZ073-097-101.
MO...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR MOZ055>057-066>069-
077>080-088-089.
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE
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