715
FXUS63 KSGF 291703
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
..18Z AVIATION UPDATE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
EXCESSIVE HEAT INTENSIFIES SLIGHT TODAY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
GENERALLY BE 2-3 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SIMILAR DEW
POINTS, RESULTING IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105-115 DEGREES
(WARMEST OFF THE PLATEAU) TODAY. HEAT HEADLINES ARE UNCHANGED FOR
TODAY, BUT CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLY
UPGRADE TO WARNING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS IA AND NE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST,
HANGING UP JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CWA TONIGHT. COULD SEE A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM BRUSH THE NORTHEAST, BUT BEST CHANCES ARE FOR THE
AREA TO STAY DRY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
THE FRONT MAY MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA FRIDAY, POSSIBLY
LEADING TO A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS THERE, BUT IT SHOULD LIFT BACK
NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER HOT
DAY FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO TODAY,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA WHICH MAY BE 3-5
DEGREES COOLER IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONGOING HEAT
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE REGION, LEAVING THE NORTHEASTERN CWA NOTICEABLY
COOLER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
MID 80S NORTHEAST TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. MAX HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S NORTHEAST TO
THE 100-105 RANGE ELSEWHERE. HEAT ADVISORIES (AND POSSIBLY SOME
WARNINGS) MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY.
AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL EXIST SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME LOW END
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS, AS WELL AS A FLOODING
THREAT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND THE FRONT
MAY SLOW TEMPORARILY STALL OUT OVER SOME AREAS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT AND WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD. LOOK FOR
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S WITH AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THERE IS ALSO SOME LOW END POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
MISSOURI. EXPECT A SCATTERED CUMULUS DECK TO DEVELOP COINCIDENT
WITH PEAK HEATING. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS TODAY
THAN PRIOR DAYS, THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS IN ALL
LOCATIONS.
SAFE TRAVELS!
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ055>058-069>071-
080>083-090>092-095>098-102>106.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MOZ066>068-
077>079-088-089-093-094-101.
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR KSZ073-097-101.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...UNGAR
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