179
FXUS63 KSGF 020545
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAINFALL COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
FLOODING THREAT IS MINIMAL.
- DRY WEATHER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL THEN OCCUR
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
WHILE SOME AREAS OF SE KS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED OVER 2 INCHES
OF RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM, MANY AREAS HAVE SEEN MINIMAL
AMOUNTS. THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN LESS COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF
RAINFALL THROUGH THE END OF THE EVENT ON FRIDAY. THIS IS DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE DOWNSTREAM OF THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING CYCLONE
CURRENTLY OVER THE PANHANDLE OF OK. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN/FILL AS IT MOVES AS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, MAINLY LOOKING AT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT SOME HEAVIER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 65 WHERE 500-1,000 J/KG OF SBCAPE HAS DEVELOPED THANKS
TO DECREASED CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK, SO NOT EXPECTING AND SEVERE CHANCES, BUT
COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THE PASSAGE OF
THE MID- LEVEL TROUGH WILL COINCIDE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
BRINGING INCREASED RAIN CHANCES OF 80-100% (MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-44) TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PRECIP THEN ENDS
FROM NW TO SE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
OVERALL, LOOK FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.25-1.50",
WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES OF 2-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO CAUSE ANY FLOODING ISSUES OUTSIDE OF
LOCALIZE NUISANCE FLOODING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
DRY WEATHER WITH CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES TAKES HOLD THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR THE MOST
PART THROUGH MONDAY, THEN 70S TO MID 80S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
AVIATION CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY DETERIORATING AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS INTO THE AREA. OBSERVATIONS SHOW AN IFR (700-1000 FT) CLOUD
DECK JUST NORTH OF JLN AND SGF. THESE SHOULD REACH SGF AND JLN
BY 06-08Z. BBG IS ALREADY EXPERIENCING LIFR CIGS. ONCE THESE
CIGS TAKE HOLD, THEY SHOULD BE QUITE PERSISTENT FOR MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW LONG IFR CIGS HANG ON,
THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE AND RULES OF THUMB SUGGEST CLEARING MAY
NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
DURING THIS PERIOD, RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
12-15Z. THE MAIN PERIOD TO WATCH IS BETWEEN 06-13Z AT SGF AND
BBG WHERE SOME HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
MAY OCCUR, BRINGING VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 2-5 MILES AT TIMES.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. FOR THE MOST PART, WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 08-23Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...PRICE
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