281
FXUS63 KSGF 110531
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1231 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS (15-20% CHANCE)
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH FRIDAY
EVENING AND NIGHT, ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A PITTSBURG, KS TO
OSAGE BEACH LINE.
- RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THERE
IS A MARGINAL (1 OF 4) TO SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IF STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION
REPEATEDLY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU JUL 10 2025
SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEEN
VERTICALLY STUNTED BY SOME DRY AIR ALOFT. A LEE LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, GRADUALLY MEANDERING EAST. MODELS SHOW
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
POTENTIALLY GROWING INTO AN MCS. BASICALLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
SHOWS IT DIMINISHING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE WESTERN FRINGES
OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS IT RUNS OUT OF INSTABILITY, SO
WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IF ANYTHING WITH THIS ROUND. HOWEVER,
WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH WHERE ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES END UP AS
THEY WILL AFFECT POSSIBLE FRIDAY CONVECTION.
FOR FRIDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A PLUME OF SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
RETURN MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED FREE CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN
OZARKS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MO DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH A LACK
OF STRONG FORCING SHOULD LIMIT THEIR LONGEVITY OR INTENSITY. WE
CURRENTLY HAVE 15-20% POPS FOR THIS AREA.
LATEST MODELS TEND TO REIGNITE CONVECTION ALONG THE
AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSOURI OR NORTHEAST KANSAS BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
STRONG DESTABILIZATION MAY ALLOW FOR RAPID INITIATION INTO
CLUSTERS OR AN EVENTUAL LINE SEGMENT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE MODEL TREND HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SLOWER
AND SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE,
WHICH WOULD REDUCE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM/WIND RISK FOR OUR
FORECAST AREA. TIMING WISE, STORM CHANCES REALLY START TO
INCREASE AFTER 10 PM AND LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA IN A MARGINAL (1 OF 5) RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP
TO 60 MPH, ROUGHLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PITTSBURG, KS TO
OSAGE BEACH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT
THU JUL 10 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SLOW TO A CRAWL OVER THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, WHILE A SECOND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORT MAX LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE CONTENT (PWATS OF 1.6-2.0")
AND A PERSISTENT SOURCE OF LIFT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. REPEATED CONVECTION MAY OPEN THE
DOOR FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY IF MULTIPLE
STRONG STORMS MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATION. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS IN A SLIGHT (2 OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. DETAILS WILL LIKELY BE BETTER RESOLVED AS
WE GET IN RANGE OF HI-RES CAMS.
MODEL VARIANCE INCREASES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY MONDAY AND BEYOND,
THOUGH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN TO DAILY
RAIN CHANCES AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRANSIT THE UPPER-LEVEL JET.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 25 KNOTS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DIDIO
LONG TERM...DIDIO
AVIATION...SORIA
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