715
FXUS63 KSGF 130711
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
111 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY, THEN SLIGHTLY
COOLER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK WITH
COLDER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH WITH
AFTERNOON MINIMAL HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 25-35% RANGE.
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN POTENTIAL (25-45%) THIS EVENING AND
NIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT MOVE
THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS SHOWCASES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY PUSHING INTO MANITOBA, CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AS OF 1AM, WITH OBSERVATIONS SHOWCASING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 40S. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP A
FEW MORE DEGREES BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
PIVOT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE REGION, BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION (ALBEIT LIGHT) LATER TONIGHT. BEFORE THAT OCCURS
HOWEVER, A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
AND SHIFTS WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. THE CURRENT DRY AIRMASS
IN PLACE (MINIMUM RHS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 25-35% RANGE)
COUPLED WITH THESE HIGHER GUSTS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY OF
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
THESE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT WARM AIR INTO
THE AREA AHEAD OF TONIGHT'S SYSTEM, LEADING TO THE WARMEST DAY
IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THE NBM INTERQUARTILE SPREAD
SHOWCASES A MEAGER 3-DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 75TH
PERCENTILES, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN REACHING THE LOW TO
MID 60S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING, THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE PRESENT TO BRING SOME SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS,
HOWEVER WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST,
AND THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, RAINFALL WILL REMAIN LIMITED, WITH
FORECAST AMOUNTS ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN A TRACE UP TO
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
A TENTH OF AN INCH, HOWEVER AREAS CLOSER TO CENTRAL MO COULD SEE
AMOUNTS REACHING CLOSER TO 0.10".
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 109 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY AS GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH USHER
IN THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS TO
DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 40S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO
THE TEENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR THURSDAY, HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 30S (EASTERN OZARKS) TO THE MID 40S (HIGHER WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65).
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS PROGGED TO PUSH TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA. AS A RESULT,
ANOTHER BOUT OF COLD AIR WILL BE USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH OCCURRING AT TIMES ONCE
AGAIN, WIND CHILLS COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS SATURDAY MORNING, AND THE SINGLE DIGITS INTO THE
NEGATIVES SUNDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1101 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BEFORE A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY EVENING,
USHERING IN LOWER CEILINGS JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD. EXPECT
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY BETWEEN 8-12KTS,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY,
LLWS WILL BE EVIDENT AT THE TAF SITES BEFORE DROPPING OFF
BETWEEN ~13Z-15Z.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MELTO
LONG TERM...MELTO
AVIATION...MELTO
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