261
FXUS63 KSGF 021319
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
815 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 40-70% CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN FRIDAY AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. MONITORING FOR LIMITED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
- TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FAVORED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
NEXT WEEK, BUT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 815 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
OUTFLOW FROM MORNING CONVECTION WEST OF THE CWA COULD RESULT IN A
FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING (20-30% COVERAGE/PROBABILITY). MOST AREAS SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AND NO STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. WHILE
THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY, IT'S WORTH
NOTING THAT (MUCH LIKE TODAY) NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A FEATURE OVER KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THE PATTERN DOESN'T
FAVOR THIS ACTIVITY TO ADVANCE INTO THE CWA, BUT IT CAN'T BE
RULED OUT OVER THE WEST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 815 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
40-70% CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN FRIDAY AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND. MONITORING FOR LIMITED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
- IMPACTS: TOO EARLY TO TELL, BUT WILL BE WATCHING FOR ANY
FLOODING THREATS. RISK APPEARS LOW AT THIS TIME, THOUGH.
- DETAILS: MOVING BACK INTO A RAINY PATTERN LATE THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS OF DAILY TIMING, DURATION, AND
AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL.
- METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS: THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST LATE THIS WEEK AS UPPER TROUGHING
SETTLES OVER THE MIDWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WETTER PATTERN.
ENSEMBLE PWATS ARE GENERALLY 1.5-2", WHICH IS AROUND 150% OF
NORMAL. THIS MAY SUPPORT A FLOODING THREAT, BUT IMPORTANT
DETAILS RELATED TO THAT HAVE A LOW PREDICTABILITY AT THIS
POINT.
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FAVORED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
NEXT WEEK, BUT HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
- IMPACTS: NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
- DETAILS: ENSEMBLE DATA AND CPC FORECASTS SHOW ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPTIATION NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
(WHICH IS HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S THIS TIME OF YEAR), RESULTING
IN NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURE RETURN
INTERVALS ARE NEAR ZERO, SHOWING THIS PERIOD SHOULDN'T BE
UNUSUAL BY ANY MEANS. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT ANY DETAILS RELATED TO
FLOODING POTENTIAL ARE NOT PREDICTABLE THIS FAR OUT.
- CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY,
WITH LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. DISSIPATING
CLOUDS INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE
EAST-SOUTHEAST.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...PEREZ
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