935
FXUS63 KSGF 050800
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
300 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 15-40% CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS TODAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS
TO PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-60 MPH.
- FLOOD WATCH TO BE IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TONIGHT TO 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A WARSAW TO GLADDEN
LINE. MORE NUMEROUS 50-80% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING. WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND
HAIL UP TO QUARTERS TO HALF DOLLARS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS EXIST THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT BEFORE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAT RETURNS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PAIRED WITH RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS
BROAD MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING AND ENHANCED FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS AS A MMID-LEVEL LOW CHURNS AWAY IN THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE BROAD
TROUGH ARE NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. MOST NOTABLY, IS A WAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE COLORADO/WYOMING FRONT RANGE. ALONG THE
GRADIENT OF THE BROAD TROUGH IS A RATHER STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM SOUTH KANSAS, THROUGH NORTHERN MISSOURI, AND INTO
THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY:
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY,
THE SURFACE FRONT WILL SAG TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MISSOURI. DURING MUCH OF TODAY, THE GREATEST LIFT FROM THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SHOULD STAY NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND ANY PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONES ACROSS OUR AREA MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS SOMEWHAT UNCAPPED
1500-3000 J/KG SBCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION, ACCORDING TO THE HREF. CAMS SUGGEST THESE MAY OCCUR IN
BANDS, ONE CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND ONE ALONG PRE-FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE EAST OF HIGHWAY 65. THE BAND CLOSER TO THE FRONT MAY
BE MORE ELEVATED GIVEN SOME GREATER CAPPING IN THAT REGION, BUT
IT MAY ALSO OCCUR ANYTIME FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 SHOULD OCCUR DIURNALLY
BETWEEN 3 AND 10 PM.
WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE PLENTIFUL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, SHEAR WILL BE RATHER WEAK AS THE SHORTWAVE STAYS TO THE
NORTHWEST DURING PEAK HEATING. REGARDLESS, HIGHS REACHING THE
MIDDLE 90S TODAY WITH MID-60S TO AROUND 70 F DEWPOINTS WILL
CREATE A DECENT DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AND RESULTING INVERTED-V
PROFILE. THE RESULTING STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH
ELEVATED VERTICAL TOTALS WILL RESULT IN A PULSE-LIKE ENVIRONMENT
DURING PEAK HEATING. THE OZARKS PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INDEX
CONFIRMS THIS WITH VALUES AT 14-16 (MODERATELY HIGH) DURING PEAK
HEATING. THEREFORE, ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE DOWNDRAFT WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-60 MPH.
FLOOD WATCH TO BE IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM TO 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING:
MORE ROBUST LIFT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERTOP THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TONIGHT. THE RESULTING SYNOPTIC MASS
RESPONSE IS THREE-FOLD. FIRST, THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY LIFT BACK NORTH. SECONDLY, THIS WILL CREATE A ZONE OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AIDED BY AN INCREASING 25-30
KT LOW-LEVEL JET. AND THIRDLY, LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC ASCENT AHEAD
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT WITHIN A ZONE OF
1000-2000+ J/OF OF MUCAPE. AS A RESULT, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT. THE EXACT CORRIDOR OF THESE STORMS
IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES (50-80%)
EXIST NORTH OF HIGHWAY 60 AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 54.
THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AREAS ARE UNDER A FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 PM
TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY MORNING.
RAP AND HREF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
TAKE ON A MORE WEST-TO-EAST ORIENTATION OVERNIGHT, WHICH WILL
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE MEAN-LAYER FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE, WITH
LIFT PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT, MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
TRAINING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE COMBINATION OF
STORMS TRAINING ALONG WITH EFFICIENT RAIN RATES FROM TALL,
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND PWATS NEARING 2 INCHES WILL BRING THE
RISK FOR LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLOODING. BOTH THE HREF
AND REFS LPMM QPF AMOUNTS NARROW DOWN A CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
MISSOURI WITH WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES AND LOCALIZED VALUES UP TO
3-5 INCHES.
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT:
IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING THREAT, DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME
MORE PLENTIFUL OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44.
HREF AND RAP FORECASTS SUGGEST VALUES OF 30-35 KTS, WITH UPWARDS
OF 40 KTS WITHIN THE ELEVATED 1-6 KM LAYER. THIS IS STILL ON THE
MARGINAL SIDE, BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXACT MODE OF RESULTING STORMS IS ALSO STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN. SOME CAMS SHOW MULTIPLE LINE SEGMENTS
INITIATING AND TRAVERSING THE BOUNDARY, WHILE OTHERS DEPICT
MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION. WHICHEVER MODE OCCURS WILL DICTATE THE
MAIN HAZARDS, BUT GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, HAZARDS WOULD INCLUDE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO QUARTER TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN AND STORMS EXIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS HAVE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BROAD TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE SAME AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SHORTWAVES THAT
MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH, ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT, WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE MOMENT, 15-25% CHANCES FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXISTS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SPC RISK FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY,
AND ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 2500+ J/KG MUCAPE AND 30-35 KTS
OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANOTHER
MARGINAL RISK COME ABOUT.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN LOOK TO INCREASE AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT (40-70% CHANCE) AS THE SAME PATTERN SETS UP WITH
A NOCTURNAL LLJ/WAA AND SHORTWAVE SUPPORT. DEPENDING ON WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS AT THIS POINT IN TIME, THE FLOOD WATCH
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED AND/OR EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR
ADDITIONAL TRAINING AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POTENTIAL. THERE IS
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, THOUGH, TO DELINEATE ANY
AREAS WITH ENHANCED RISK.
THE SAME PATTERN THEN OCCURS FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY, AND FOCUSED MORE
NUMEROUS COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. ONCE AGAIN, WE WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR ANY POTENTIAL IN HEAVY RAINFALL
AND/OR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAT BUILD THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK:
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, MAKING WAY FOR RISING HEIGHTS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S, SOME AREAS APPROACHING 100
F. CURRENT DEWPOINT FORECASTS KEEP HEAT A TAD LOWER THAN
"EXCESSIVE" WITH LREF ENSEMBLES SHOWING <10% CHANCE FOR >105 F
HEAT INDEX VALUES. HOWEVER, THEY DO SHOW >60% CHANCES FOR >100 F
VALUES SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SO, WHILE AROUND 100
F HEAT INDEX IS NOT TERRIBLY UNCOMMON FOR OZARKIAN SUMMERS, THE
EXPECTED EXTENDED NATURE OF 100-105 F HEAT INDEX VALUES
INTRODUCES A HEAT RISK AS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH ROOM FOR HEAT
RELIEF.
WHILE HEAT WILL BUILD, THE JET STREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE. SOME GLOBAL MODELS HAVE THE ENHANCED WINDS
DROPPING SOUTH NEAR OUR NORTHERN CWA. THIS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND STORMS, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN THESE TYPES OF
PATTERNS IS TOO HIGH FOR ANY APPRECIABLE MENTION ABOVE 15%. AS
AN EXAMPLE, THE EFI DOES SHOW VALUES OF AROUND 0.8 FOR CAPE-
SHEAR COMBO IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MISSOURI, WHICH MAY
HIGHLIGHT SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO COME CAREENING DOWN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW OF THE JET STREAM SOMETIME NEXT WEEK. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD, WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BET AT 8-12 KTS, SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
THROUGH 18Z. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SAG INTO
THE REGION AFTER 18Z, WHICH WILL BRING 15-30% CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM BETWEEN 21-04Z.
AFTER 00Z, THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH, SHIFTING WINDS BACK TO
SOUTHEASTERLY.
OTHERWISE, MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD, BUT LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS WILL BE ABOVE 5 KFT UNLESS A STORM
MOVES WITHIN THE TAF SITE VICINITY.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
MOZ055>058-069>071-083.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...PRICE
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