207
FXUS63 KSGF 070525
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1225 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH PATCHY FROST POTENTIAL
TONIGHT, MAINLY IN VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS. WARMING TREND
INCOMING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (40-70%) FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5)
WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN HAZARD.
- ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS (40-70%) RETURNS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM SEVERITY REMAINS IN
QUESTION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
CURRENT CONDITIONS AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN: WATER VAPOR AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A BROAD, POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED FROM MINNESOTA TO COLORADO. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS SLIDING SOUTH INTO COLORADO AND KANSAS. THIS
WAS ALLOWING FOR A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO CONTINUE TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. THERE REMAINS SOME
INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER FROM BOTH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST AND A FEW CUMULUS FROM RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.
COOL TEMPERATURES - PATCHY FROST TONIGHT: DEWPOINTS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DROP INTO THE 30S THIS EVENING. AS WINDS BECOME
LIGHT, TEMPS SHOULD FALL OFF QUICKLY INTO THE 40S OVERNIGHT. THE
LATEST NBM CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 30S BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY FROST FORMATION. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR IS CLOUD
COVER. WHILE WINDS WILL GO VERY LIGHT TO NEAR CALM, THERE WILL
BE PERIODS OF CLOUDS THAT STREAM THROUGH OVERNIGHT, WITH
POTENTIALLY ONE BATCH MOVING THROUGH NEAR SUNRISE. THIS COULD
CAUSE TEMPS TO BOUNCE AROUND OVERNIGHT WITH SOME AREAS STAYING
CLOSER TO 40 DEGREES. THOSE WITH SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION
SHOULD TAKE PROPER PRECAUTIONS, ESPECIALLY AREAS THAT ARE MORE
SHELTERED FROM THE WIND AND AREA VALLEYS/LOW SPOTS.
WARMER TEMPS THURSDAY: WINDS LOOK TO TURN SOUTHERLY DURING THE
DAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. LATEST HREF
DATA SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 WHICH MAY HAVE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME CUMULUS. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RESPOND BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR HIGHS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT: LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. BEFORE THEN, GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE LIKELY AND WILL ADVECT IN WARMER TEMPS ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS IN
THE 70S LOOK LIKELY.
THE EXACT TIMING OF THE FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION HOWEVER THE
CONSENSUS IS THAT IT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA IN THE EVENING. MOISTURE QUALITY IS
SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION HOWEVER THE LATEST MEAN DEWPOINT FORECASTS
SUGGEST MIDDLE TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 50 DEWS COULD ADVECT INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE
CURRENT OVERLAP OF THE GREATEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR LOOKS
TO BE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT/POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS WHICH WOULD FAVOR A LARGE HAIL
THREAT. THE LATEST UPDATE FROM THE SPC NOW INCLUDES A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FUTURE UPDATES.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL QUICKLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS ALSO LOOKS TO BE POSITIVELY TILTED WITH ANOTHER FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS OF
TIMING FOR THIS FRONT IS LATER SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH LEADS TO
UNCERTAINTY IN INSTABILITY POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE THREAT.
THERE IS NOT ANY SEVERE OUTLOOK FOR THE AREA AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER THE CIPS ANALOGS AND CSU ML PROBS DO SUPPORT A SEVERE
RISK JUST TO OUR WEST ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE,
GIVEN THE TIMING OF BOTH FRONTS, THIS DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
WASHOUT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG PERIOD OF DRY
TIME IN BETWEEN ROUNDS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY COULD REACH THE UPPER
70S TO LOWER 80S, ESPECIALLY IF CLOUDS CLEAR SUFFICIENTLY.
SUNDAY COULD BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
BEYOND SUNDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS BRINGING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REACH
THE 80S AREA WIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH PRECIP CHANCES
BELOW 20 PERCENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON REACHING NEAR
15 KNOTS THEN WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...BURCHFIELD
LONG TERM...BURCHFIELD
AVIATION...SORIA
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