715
FXUS63 KSGF 261123
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
623 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEK AS HIGHS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
- OTHER THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ON TUESDAY, THE
NEXT WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA WILL BE NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
IT'S A SLIGHTLY CLOUDIER NIGHT TONIGHT THAN WE SAW OVER THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ALOFT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY
WARMER NIGHT BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN SOME PLACES, BUT GENERALLY
STILL EXPECTING LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
THE MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF THE PLATEAU. THE PRIMARILY LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE PLAINS TODAY, SLOWLY
LOSING AMPLITUDE. HEIGHTS FALL SLIGHTLY AS IT PASSES BY, WHICH
SHOULD KEEP HIGHS TODAY BELOW 80, AND EVEN BELOW 75 IN THE CLOUDIEST
AREAS. THE MOST DENSE CLOUD COVER WILL STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING HOURS, BEGINNING TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDDAY
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT. PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR LOWS
AGAIN TONIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH MISSOURI TUESDAY, TEMPORARILY DISRUPTING
THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE. A FEW SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE
(~15% POP) ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THE REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PRECLUDED
BY THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY, IF
TEMPERED BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND RELATIVELY
SOUTHERLY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WARM, FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MID TO UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
RIDGING TAKES HOLD AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY, AND
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES SURFACE WAA OUT OF THE
SOUTH. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR
NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH COULD SAG
SOUTHWARD AND BEGIN TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SGF CWA.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CONTINUES THE TRAIN OF SHORTWAVES FRIDAY, AND RAIN
CHANCES LOOK TO EXIST OVER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME AS WAVES OF
SUPPORT PASS THROUGH. CURRENT TIMING SHOWS WIDESPREAD CHANCES
HOLDING OFF UNTIL SATURDAY, WITH 40-60% POPS AREA-WIDE. THE NBM HAS
BEEN DISAGREEING WITH ITSELF RUN-TO-RUN, LOWERING AND THEN RAISING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AGAIN, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS LANDS
AROUND THOSE PROBABILITIES. CAPE WILL BE QUITE LOW, AND THIS
RAIN SHOULD FEEL LIKE A GENTLE, SEASONAL TYPE OF EVENT. RAIN
CHANCES LINGER INTO SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY INCREASE AGAIN TO
START NEXT WEEK.
LONG-TERM MODELS DEPICT A DEEPER, MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING MORE RAIN TO START
NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
SSE WINDS BELOW 10 KTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER
INCREASING BETWEEN FL200-FL250.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...NELSON
LONG TERM...NELSON
AVIATION...NELSON
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