215
FXUS63 KSGF 211045
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
545 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (60-90%) TODAY AND FRIDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHEAST MO.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (40-70%) THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY:
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS
WILL FEATURE A SYSTEM WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. AS MOISTURE RETURN
INCREASES THIS MORNING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO.
THIS WILL OCCUR IN THE VICINITY OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN
UPPER- LEVEL JET STEAK. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN RATHER
BENIGN, WITH NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED GIVEN THE LACK OF
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. FORECAST MUCAPE AROUND 500 TO
1000 J/KG NUDGES INTO SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHWEST MO AND WILL
SUPPORT NON- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS REACH INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
BY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, CAMS SHOW SOME DISCONTINUITY ON
EXTENT OF RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING BEHIND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A
SCENARIO WHERE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE BECOMES ISOLATED IN NATURE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES ON
FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS TO BE WHAT TRENDS SUPPORT, WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. AREAS OF EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 MAY NOT SEE MUCH
OF ANY RAIN ON THURSDAY.
WPC HIGHLIGHTS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO IN A
SLIGHT (2 OF 4) EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS TO CAPTURE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING, IN PARTICULAR IN AREAS
THAT REMAIN SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK. IT
APPEARS THAT THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE RATHER LOCALIZED, WITH HREF
PMM AND LPMM HIGHLIGHTING A FEW CORRIDORS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
WHERE TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR. MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN
AROUND A 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
AN ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MID-LEVEL
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO SUPPORT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE MAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 40-70% BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THOUGH DISCREPANCIES EXIST ON THE TIMING
AND EXTENT OF COVERAGE. DESPITE SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY, WE
ARE CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING ALL DAY WASHOUTS EITHER SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY.
NEXT WEEK:
UNSETTLED WEATHER FEATURING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES LINGERS INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALIGNS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK WITH THE FORECAST FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2026
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 700 TO 1500 FEET PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING. AS WE PROGRESS INTO LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO PERHAPS
VFR CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET. ADDITIONALLY, LOW CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES ARE
CURRENTLY AT KJLN. REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WOULD
ACCOMPANY ANY PRECIPITATION. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS
RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LIGHT EAST WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PEREZ
LONG TERM...PEREZ
AVIATION...PEREZ
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