104
FXUS63 KSGF 311721
AFDSGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1221 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND A TAD BREEZY TODAY. TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S
TONIGHT, INTRODUCING A LOCALIZED FROST RISK, PARTICULARLY IN
THE VALLEYS OF THE EASTERN OZARKS.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A 15-40% CHANCE TO REACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE
PLATEAU.
- MARGINAL (1 OF 5) TO SLIGHT (2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA TUESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE THREAT IS CONDITIONAL ON STORM FORMATION, BUT ALL
HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING IN ADDITIONAL, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY.
- WE ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL MISSOURI.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
A COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CONUS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING FROM CANADA, ALL
THE WAY DOWN TO EAST TEXAS AS RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A DYNAMIC
LONGWAVE TROUGH WITH MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES . ONE
SHORTWAVE IS TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES, ANOTHER IS PUSHING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS, AND THE MOST POTENT WAVE IS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A 140-170 KT UPPER-LEVEL
JET. BENEATH THE JET OF THE LONGWAVE AND JUST BEHIND THE
EXTENSIVE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS AN EQUALLY EXTENSIVE COLD
FRONT THAT HAS JUST CLEARED MISSOURI BRINGING MODEST NORTHERLY
WINDS ACROSS OUR AREA. COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. WHILE SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES BELOW 36 F, LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND MODEST WINDS
SHOULD KEEP ANY FROST TO VERY LOCALIZED SPOTS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AND COOLER AIR WILL PERSIST TODAY AS SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR. AS
SUCH, HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
LOCALIZED FROST RISK TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTERN OZARKS:
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, CALMING WINDS DOWN A
BIT AND SLOWLY SHIFTING THEM CLOCKWISE TO BECOME OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. THE CALMER WINDS AND CLEARER SKIES AMIDST THE COOLER
AIR MASS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE TO THE MIDDLE 30S
ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 63.
THE NBM CURRENTLY GIVES A 40-80% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW
36 F IN THE EASTERN OZARKS AND WESTWARD ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
PLATEAU. THERE IS ALSO A 20-40% CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED LOCATIONS
IN THE EASTERN OZARKS TO DROP BELOW 34 F. THESE POCKETS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD, AND MAINLY CONFINED TO VALLEYS. THUS,
THE FROST RISK WILL BE LIMITED TO THESE POCKETS THAT SEE LOWER
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. AS SUCH, A FROST ADVISORY IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, BE MINDFUL OF PLANTS AND
CROPS IN VALLEYS ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS TUESDAY MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-40 MPH TUESDAY:
THIS HAS BEEN THE YEAR OF THE STRONG LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEMS, AND
TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND. THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENT
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL START NOSING OFF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT RANGE TUESDAY. THE 140-160 KT JET WILL
INITIATE DEEP LEE CYCLOGENESIS AT THE CORNER OF KS/CO/NE. THIS
WILL BRING ANOTHER NEAR RECORD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE
MARCH/EARLY APRIL ACCORDING TO NAEFS AND ECMWF ESATS. SINCE THE
PRESSURE WILL BE QUICKLY DROPPING, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
OUR AREA WILL SHARPEN, INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT WILL REACH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 TO 40 MPH.
BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFERS FROM THE SREF ARE SOLIDLY IN THE 30
TO 40 MPH RANGE, WITH SOME MID-RANGE DETERMINISITIC MODELS
HINTING AT MAX GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THE NBM GIVES A 20-40% CHANCE
FOR WIND GUSTS ABOVE 45 MPH (WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA) FOR A FEW
HOURS OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS A 60-70 KT LOW-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS
THE REGION. WIND ADVISORY POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED, THOUGH ENSEMBLE SPREADS SUGGEST WE SHOULD STAY BELOW
CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
NEVERTHELESS, THE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VERY QUICKLY BRING
BACK IN WARM AND MOIST AIR, GETTING HIGHS TUESDAY BACK INTO THE
MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE 70S. BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH, THIS ALSO
BRINGS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IF MOISTURE IS A BIT LATE TO THE
PARTY. CURRENT FORECASTS HAVE RHS IN THE 30-40% RANGE IN THE
EASTERN OZARKS, THOUGH PATTERN RECOGNITION POINTS TO MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE WE COULD SEE LOWER RH VALUES OUT IN THE EASTERN
OZARKS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT:
AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY BRING
60-65 F DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE REGION RATHER QUICKLY. THE
DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN IS ACTUALLY RATHER IMPRESSIVE, WITH
THE >60 F DEWPOINTS LOCKED TO THE GULF AT 7 AM TUESDAY, THEN
ADVECTING ALL THE WAY TO NORTH KS BY 10 PM. WITH SUCH QUICK
ADVECTION, THERE'S SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE
RETURN AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING DRYLINE. BY 7 PM TUESDAY, HREF HAS
A SPREAD OF 0 TO 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS CENTRAL KS/OK. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL SPREAD EAST INTO OUR REGION THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS BRING A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT. CURRENTLY A
SLIGHT RISK IS ACROSS OUR WESTERN CWA, WITH THE REST OF THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK.
THERE'S A TWO-FOLD CONDITIONAL THREAT WITH THIS RISK. FIRST, IS
CONDITIONAL ON IF STORMS INITIATE IN OK/KS DURING THE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY. IF THEY DO, THEY WOULD MOVE NE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA.
GIVEN 50-70 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR COMPLETELY PERPENDICULAR TO
THE INITIATING DRYLINE, THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. THE CONDITIONAL PART OF
THIS FORECAST IS A STOUT CAP IN PLACE (IN ADDITION TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN MOISTURE/INSTABILITY). ON ONE HAND, THIS MAY
INHIBIT ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALL TOGETHER. ON THE OTHER
HAND, IF STORMS WERE TO INITIATE, THEY'D LIKELY BE ISOLATED,
DISCRETE, AND ABSOLUTE POWERHOUSES GIVEN SREF HODOGRAPHS SHOWING
LARGE, ELONGATED, AND CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH IMPRESSIVE SHEAR,
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM WITHIN THE ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER ABOVE THE CAP. SO, THE SLIGHT RISK IS MAINLY FOR LOW
COVERAGE OF STORMS, BUT A POTENTIALLY HIGH CEILING WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP (TENNIS BALL HAIL AGAIN, TORNADOES,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS). THE NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OF THESE STORMS
MAINLY LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE I-49 CORRIDOR IF THEY DO DEVELOP
AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA.
THE SECOND CONDITIONAL THREAT IS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN, THE CONDITIONAL
THREAT IS BASED ON DEVELOPMENT AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL
ONLY STRENGTHEN THE CAP, THOUGH ELEVATED STORMS (OR A SQUALL
LINE FROM STRONG COLD FRONT FORCING) WOULDN'T BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THESE WOULD THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO IMPACT AREAS
EAST OF I-49 THROUGH THE CWA WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREAT (MUCH LIKE SATURDAY NIGHT'S EVENT).
ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY:
HISTORY SEEMS TO REPEAT ITSELF--A LITTLE TOO SOON IF YOU ASK ME.
NOT ONLY DOES THE TUESDAY NIGHT EVENT SEEM SIMILAR TO THIS PAST
SATURDAY NIGHT'S EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COLD FRONT AND
LINE OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
WEDNESDAY, BUT THE NEXT RISK DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WILL
LARGELY BE DETERMINED BY THE BEHAVIOR OF THE PRECEDING ROUND OF
SEVERE STORMS. LET'S PUT THAT ASIDE, THOUGH, SINCE IT'S TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE POTENTIAL FAILURE MODES OF THE PRECEDING
STORMS. ASSUMING THAT THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RELATIVELY
UNTAPPED, WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING TO SHAPE UP FOR ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF SPRINGFIELD
WHERE THE SPC HAS AN ENHANCED (3 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A 10% CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE. THE 03Z
SREF IS POINTING TO MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST MODERATE
COVERAGE OF STORMS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF AT LEAST 1000 J/KG
MLCAPE AND 40 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (50-70% JOINT PROBABILITY).
IT'S TOO EARLY TO SAY MUCH ABOUT STORM MODE AND TIMING, BUT
SREF AND DETERMINISTIC AREA-AVERAGED SOUNDINGS AND HODOGRAPHS
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEPICT AN ENVIRONMENT WITH ELONGATED
HODOGRAPHS WITH SOME CURVATURE TO THEM. THE MAIN THING IS THAT
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MUCH MORE ABUNDANT THAN THIS PAST SUNDAY
EVENT, WITH SREF/GFS GIVING A RANGE OF 25-35 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH
AT 150-250 M2/S2. THUS, ALL HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HAIL, WIND, AND/OR TORNADOES DEPENDING
ON THE EXPECTED STORM MODE. CIPS ANALOGS AND CSU MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE SUPPORT THIS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT EARLY
INDICATIONS POINT TO THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING TO QUICKLY LIFT
NORTHEAST AS THE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH STALLS OUT. AS SUCH, THE
COLD FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKER FORCING
WOULD THEN POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR MORE OF A DISCRETE STORM MODE
THAN A LINE. HOWEVER, STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS FOR BETTER
DETAILS ON THESE HAZARDS AND REFINEMENTS TO THE LOCATION.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE THURSDAY:
ENSEMBLES ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT IN A LONGWAVE PATTERN STALLING
THURSDAY WITH BROAD AND STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERTOP OF OUR
REGION. THIS WILL STALL OUT THE SURFACE COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH
OF OUR AREA. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW MOVES MOISTURE OVERTOP THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY. WITH AMBLE SHEAR, THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AS WELL.
INCREASING CONCERN FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING LATE THIS WEEK:
THE MORE CONCERNING WEATHER FACTOR AFTER WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER, IS
THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY. ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN A
CORRIDOR OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. WHILE THE ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN QUITE
CONSISTENT IN THIS SIGNAL, THE SPREADS ARE STILL QUITE HIGH,
SUGGESTING THAT SOME SHIFT IN THE EXACT CORRIDOR IS STILL
POSSIBLE. FOR EXAMPLE, WEST PLAINS HAS A SPREAD OF 1 TO 7 INCHES
FOR 72 HOUR PRECIPITATION FROM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY.
NEVERTHELESS, THE WPC HAS SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI IN A SLIGHT (2
OF 4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH A
MODERATE (3 OF 5) RISK FRIDAY. MODERATE RISKS ISSUED 5 DAYS OUT
ARE RELATIVELY RARE AND DO SIGNIFY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THEREFORE, WE ARE STARTING TO UP MESSAGING
IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SUBSEQUENT
FLOODING. THE WPC DOES NOT ISSUE DAY 6 OUTLOOKS, BUT THE EXTREME
FORECAST INDEX SUGGESTS SATURDAY WOULD BE OUR MOST IMPACTFUL
DAY, WITH EFI VALUES IN THE 0.75-0.85 RANGE WITH 2 SHIFTS OF THE
TAIL. THIS SUGGESTS POTENTIALLY HIGH-END AMOUNTS OF RAIN
ACCUMULATION ON TOP OF THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS COULD PUT STRAIN ON RIVERS IN THE EASTERN OZARKS.
PARTICULARLY, HEFS PRODUCTS ALREADY GIVE A 10-25% CHANCE FOR
ALLEY SPRING TO REACH MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. IT IS QUITE RARE TO
SEE SUCH HIGH FORECASTS THIS FAR OUT, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS THREAT. FOR NOW, PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE IN
CASE CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THIS HIGHER END SCENARIO.
BESIDES THE ACTIVE WEATHER, WE SHOULD SEE A SLIGHT COOLING TREND
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS WITH HIGHS DROPPING TO THE 50S SATURDAY AND
ONWARD WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 30S. THIS SUGGESTS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE RISK IN THE
EXTENDED RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON MAR 31 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS, HOWEVER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR TWO, LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. NORTH-NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY AND INCREASINGLY BECOMING GUSTY. SUSTAINED WINDS OF
20-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AND BEYOND.
SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRICE
LONG TERM...PRICE
AVIATION...MELTO
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