951
FNUS74 KMEG 131030
FWSMEG
SPOT FORECAST FOR HS BB 40...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
430 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 CST ON JANUARY 13.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT STRONG SOUTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. ADDITIONALLY, 20 FOOT WIND GUSTS WILL
APPROACH 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE 30 PERCENT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN STEADY AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT WETTING RAIN WILL MOVE IN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CWR.................0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........36 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............27 INCREASING TO 32 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 16 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).400-2400 FT MSL.
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...122-732 METERS AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 21 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 23
MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTHWEST 5 TO 10 METERS/SECOND.
2000 FT WINDS.......WEST 20 TO 23 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 17
TO 21 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
5000 FT WINDS.......WEST 22 TO 26 MPH INCREASING TO 28 TO 29 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (600 KNOT-FT).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........3 2 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 3 6 5
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............32 32 34 42 47 52 57 58 60 60 58 56
DEWPOINT........25 26 27 29 30 31 32 32 33 33 34 34
RH..............75 78 75 60 51 44 38 37 36 36 40 43
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 11 12 14 14 14 16 16 16 16 16
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 1.8 0.8
MX HT MSL (KFT).0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4 1.8 0.8
MIX HGT (KM)....0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW W SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 12 14 17 18 17 20 21 23 18 14
TRANS WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW W SW SW SW SW SW SW
TRANS SPD (M/S).5 5 5 6 8 8 8 9 9 10 8 6
2000 FT WND DIR.W W W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
2000 FT WND SPD.21 22 23 23 22 20 18 17 17 18 20 21
5000 FT WND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W
5000 FT WND SPD.22 22 23 23 24 24 25 26 28 29 29 29
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 1 1 1 3 4 4 6 6 8 5 2
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING.
CWR.................10 PERCENT INCREASING TO 20 PERCENT EARLY IN
THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...1 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 41.
MAX HUMIDITY........89 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............35.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 7 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
EARLY IN THE EVENING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).500-600 FT MSL.
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...152-183 METERS AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 13 TO 18 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 METERS/SECOND.
2000 FT WINDS.......SOUTHWEST 23 TO 26 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 33
MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN INCREASING TO 32
TO 35 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING SHIFTING TO THE
WEST EARLY IN THE MORNING.
5000 FT WINDS.......WEST 29 TO 33 MPH INCREASING TO 35 TO 39 MPH IN
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THEN DECREASING
TO 28 TO 31 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1000 KNOT-FT).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.00 INCHES.
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........7 8 15 22 19 18 17 21 28 44 68 89
WEATHER COV..... SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 20
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............53 49 47 47 46 45 45 44 44 43 43 42
DEWPOINT........35 35 35 35 35 35 35 35 36 35 36 36
RH..............50 58 63 63 65 68 68 70 73 73 76 79
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT WIND GUST.14 16 16 14 14 14 13 13 12 12 12 11
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6
MX HT MSL (KFT).0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6
MIX HGT (KM)....0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 16 16 16 17 18 17 16 16 16 15 13
TRANS WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W
TRANS SPD (M/S).7 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6
2000 FT WND DIR.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW W W W W
2000 FT WND SPD.23 26 30 32 33 35 35 35 35 33 32 30
5000 FT WND DIR.W W W W W W W W W W W W
5000 FT WND SPD.29 30 31 33 36 38 39 39 37 35 31 28
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING, THEN CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................70 PERCENT DECREASING TO 30 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
CHANCE OF THUNDER...5 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 51.
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............37 INCREASING TO 42 IN THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO 36 LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 7 TO 8 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 17 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (MSL).600-3800 FT MSL.
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...183-1158 METERS AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 20 TO
22 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.NORTHWEST 6 TO 10 METERS/SECOND DECREASING TO 4
TO 7 METERS/SECOND EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
SHIFTING TO THE NORTH 9 TO 10 METERS/SECOND IN
THE AFTERNOON.
2000 FT WINDS.......WEST 23 TO 26 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 16 TO 20
MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 21
TO 23 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
5000 FT WINDS.......NORTHWEST 23 TO 26 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1000 KNOT-FT).
RAINFALL AMOUNT.....0.17 INCHES.
TIME (CST) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
SKY (%).........94 89 81
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY LIKELY CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
CWR.............70 70 50
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 70 50
CHC OF THDR (%).0 0 10
TEMP............42 46 50
DEWPOINT........36 43 42
RH..............79 89 74
20 FT WIND......W 3G10 W 6G11 NW 7G14
MIX HGT (FT)....600 1300 3600
MX HT MSL (FT)..600 1300 3600
MIX HGT (M).....180 400 1100
TRANSPORT WIND..W 13 N 12 N 22
TRAN WIND (M/S).W 6 N 5 N 10
2000 FT WIND....W 26 NW 16 NW 22
5000 FT WIND....NW 25 NW 23 NW 26
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 2 11
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR
FORECASTER...CHIUPPI
REQUESTED BY...JACOB SHULER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2528918.0/MEG
.DELDT 01/13/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JOHN.TOWNSEND@USDA.GOV,JACOB.SHULER@USDA.GOV
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