401  
FNUS74 KMOB 122252  
FWSMOB  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR CHICK CPT 465...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
552 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 CDT ON AUGUST 12.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTHWARD TO NEAR THE BURN SITE  
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING  
STRONG GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY  
RAINS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE  
AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX READINGS COULD REACH  
BETWEEN 102-105 THURSDAY.  
 
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE DURING THE  
LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  
VISIBILITY COULD BE REDUCED TO 3 TO 5 MILES AT TIMES.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN  
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.  
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 1900, THEN 1-8 STRIKES  
UNTIL 2200, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 74.  
MAX HUMIDITY........97 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...91-1372 METERS AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 8 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTHWEST 1 TO 4 METERS/SECOND.  
DISPERSION INDEX....22 DECREASING TO 2.  
LVORI...............7.  
STABILITY CLASS.....4.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........66 68 59 50 41 36 32 27 29 31 33 39  
WEATHER COV.....LKY SCH SCH SCH  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........LKY SCH SCH SCH  
CHC OF PCPN (%).60 20 20 20 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............4 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............87 85 82 80 78 78 76 76 76 76 75 75  
RH..............68 75 82 85 91 91 94 94 94 94 97 97  
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S SSW  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4  
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
MIX HGT (KM)....1.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SSE SSW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SSW SSW SSW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 8 8 8 7 6 5 3 3 3 3  
TRANS WIND DIR..SSE SSW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SSW SSW SSW  
TRANS SPD (M/S).3 3 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1  
DISPERSION IDX..22 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1  
LVORI...........3 4 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 10 10  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING.  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0700, THEN 1-8 STRIKES UNTIL  
1300, THEN 16-25 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 93.  
MIN HUMIDITY........52 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING LIGHT LATE  
IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6000 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...91-1829 METERS AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 10 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTHWEST 1 TO 4 METERS/SECOND.  
DISPERSION INDEX....5 INCREASING TO 18 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 30 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING  
TO 47 LATE IN THE MORNING DECREASING TO 34.  
LVORI...............6.  
STABILITY CLASS.....2.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........45 51 50 48 47 52 56 68 68 68 68 65  
WEATHER COV..... SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 20 20 20 20 70 70 70 70 70  
LAL.............1 2 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 4 4 4  
TEMP............74 75 79 85 88 92 93 93 93 92 92 90  
RH..............97 97 91 75 70 60 56 54 52 54 54 60  
20 FT WIND DIR..SSW SSW SW WSW WSW WSW SW SSW SSW SSW SSW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 4  
20 FT WIND GUST. 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 10 11 10  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 1.3 2.2 3.2 4.1 5.1 6.0 5.7 5.3 5.0 5.0  
MIX HGT (KM)....0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW WSW WSW WSW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.3 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 10  
TRANS WIND DIR..SW SW SW WSW WSW WSW SW SW SW SW SW SW  
TRANS SPD (M/S).1 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4  
DISPERSION IDX..2 4 8 18 30 44 50 33 34 34 34 33  
LVORI...........10 9 5 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 2  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE  
EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................16-25 STRIKES UNTIL 1900, THEN 9-15 STRIKES  
UNTIL 0100, THEN NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...213-1524 METERS AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 6 TO 14 MPH.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTHWEST 3 TO 6 METERS/SECOND.  
DISPERSION INDEX....34 DECREASING TO 6.  
LVORI...............6.  
STABILITY CLASS.....4.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........65 58 52 45 38 38 38 38 40 42 44 44  
WEATHER COV.....LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW  
TSTM COV........LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).70 30 30 30 30 30 30 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............4 3 3 3 3 3 3 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............88 85 83 80 78 76 76 75 75 75 74 73  
RH..............63 72 77 88 94 100 97 100 100 97 100 100  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW SW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW SW  
20 FT WIND SPD..4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.8 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7  
MIX HGT (KFT)...5.0 1.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8  
MIX HGT (KM)....1.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2  
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SSW SSW SSW SSW SW SW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 14 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6  
TRANS WIND DIR..SW SSW SSW SSW SSW SW SW WSW WSW WSW WSW WSW  
TRANS SPD (M/S).4 6 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
DISPERSION IDX..34 8 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
LVORI...........3 3 4 6 7 9 9 9 9 9 9 9  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.  
LAL.................NO TSTMS UNTIL 0700, THEN 9-15 STRIKES UNTIL  
1300, THEN 16-25 STRIKES.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 90.  
MIN HUMIDITY........62 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED  
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4400 FT AGL.  
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...244-1341 METERS AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 12 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 17 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.WEST 2 TO 5 METERS/SECOND INCREASING TO 6 TO 8  
METERS/SECOND IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 15 EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN  
INCREASING TO 27 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING  
TO 40 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 60  
DECREASING TO 48 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
LVORI...............5.  
STABILITY CLASS.....2.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM  
SKY (%).........45 46 58  
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE LIKELY  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........ CHANCE LIKELY  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 30 70  
LAL.............1 3 4  
TEMP............73 84 89  
RH..............100 80 66  
20 FT WIND DIR..SW WSW WSW  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 3 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.7 10 11  
MIX HGT (FT)....800 2000 4200  
MIX HGT (M).....240 610 1280  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 15 16  
TRANS WIND DIR..W W W  
TRANS SPD (M/S).2 7 7  
DISPERSION IDX..3 40 50  
LVORI...........9 3 1  
 

 
FORECASTER...21  
REQUESTED BY...RYAN BARNETT  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2010812.0/MOB  
.DELDT 08/12/20  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
.EMAIL RYAN.BARNETT@USDA.GOV  
 
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