068
FNUS74 KMOB 251106
FWSMOB
SPOT FORECAST FOR TOMS CAMP FIRE...USFS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
606 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2023
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0900 CDT ON MARCH 25.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
...HIGH/LOW DISPERSION INDEX AROUND 105 EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
BURN AREA...
DISCUSSION
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING HAVE LIKELY MOVED
EAST OF THE BURN SITE AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS RANGING AROUND 40 TO 45 PERCENT TODAY. 20 FOOT WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO
20 MPH. TRANSPORT WINDS WILL ALSO BE SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH. DAYTIME DISPERSIONS WILL BE EXCELLENT OVER THE BURN SITE
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOG POTENTIAL AND OTHER REMARKS...NO FOG IS EXPECTED OVER THE BURN
SITE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6400 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...610-1951 METERS AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 14 TO 17 MPH.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTHWEST 6 TO 8 METERS/SECOND.
DISPERSION INDEX....33 INCREASING TO 99.
LVORI...............3.
STABILITY CLASS.....2.
TIME (CDT) 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
SKY (%).........57 42 12 9 10
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............70 75 82 85 85
RH..............97 76 55 45 44
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW WSW WSW WSW
20 FT WIND SPD..12 13 13 12 9
20 FT WIND GUST.17 18 20 18 15
MIX HGT (FT)....2000 3500 5300 6000 6400
MIX HGT (M).....610 1070 1620 1830 1950
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW WSW W WSW WSW
TRANSP WIND SPD.14 17 16 15 15
TRANS WIND DIR..SW WSW W WSW WSW
TRANS SPD (M/S).6 8 7 7 7
DISPERSION IDX..33 64 74 86 99
LVORI...........4 3 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (25-35 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 3 AM.
CHANCE OF PCPN......30 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 0100, THEN 2 UNTIL 0400, THEN 3.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...152-1951 METERS AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 12 TO 15 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 6
TO 7 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTH 3 TO 5 METERS/SECOND.
DISPERSION INDEX....99 DECREASING TO 5.
LVORI...............5.
STABILITY CLASS.....4.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........14 18 19 49 69 80
WEATHER COV..... S CHC CHANCE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10 20 30
LAL.............1 1 1 1 2 3
TEMP............82 73 67 66 65 65
RH..............51 74 97 99 99 100
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SSW S S SSW SSW
20 FT WIND SPD..7 6 6 7 7 6
20 FT WIND GUST.13 12 15 15 14 12
MIX HGT (FT)....6400 500 500 500 500 600
MIX HGT (M).....1950 150 150 150 150 180
TRANSP WIND DIR.WSW S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 6 6 6 7 6
TRANS WIND DIR..WSW S S S S S
TRANS SPD (M/S).7 3 3 3 3 3
DISPERSION IDX..99 4 3 4 5 4
LVORI...........1 4 7 9 9 9
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING, THEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......70 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1300, THEN 4.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 79.
MIN HUMIDITY........67 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3700 FT AGL.
MIXING HEIGHT (M)...152-1128 METERS AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 22 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS M/S.SOUTH 3 TO 10 METERS/SECOND DECREASING TO 3 TO
7 METERS/SECOND EARLY IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 8 TO 10 METERS/SECOND IN THE
AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....6 INCREASING TO 64.
LVORI...............5.
STABILITY CLASS.....3.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........80 82 86 79 74 71
WEATHER COV.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
CHC OF PCPN (%).30 50 50 50 70 70
LAL.............3 3 3 3 4 4
TEMP............65 65 70 74 78 79
RH..............100 99 89 77 68 68
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SSW S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 5 6 7 7 8
20 FT WIND GUST.12 10 7 8 9 10
MIX HGT (FT)....500 800 1600 2800 3500 3700
MIX HGT (M).....150 240 490 850 1070 1130
TRANSP WIND DIR.S SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 7 10 15 20 22
TRANS WIND DIR..S SSW SSW SSW SSW SSW
TRANS SPD (M/S).3 3 4 7 9 10
DISPERSION IDX..4 8 23 47 63 68
LVORI...........9 8 4 2 1 1
FORECASTER...3
REQUESTED BY...CLIFF WILLISS
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2307031.3/MOB
.DELDT 03/25/23
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CLIFTON.WILLIS@USDA.GOV
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