032
FXUS64 KJAN 240647
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
147 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TODAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A SINKING SURFACE BOUNDARY SLIDING SOUTHEAST PAIRED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION AN UPPER JET STREAK/SPEED MAX WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
AN EARLY MORNING ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION THIS MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DELTA AND CENTRAL MS. WITH THIS ACTIVITY,
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES WILL BE COOLER TODAY THAN WE'VE SEEN
RECENTLY WITH MAXIMUM VALUES NEAR 105 MOSTLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
I-20 CORRIDOR. A "LIMITED" (1/4) RISK FOR HEAT STRESS REMAINS
DEPICTED IN THESE AREAS.
MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THIS EARLY ACTIVITY, AFTERNOON HEATING
COULD ALLOW FOR A REJUVENATION OF STORM ACTIVITY AND THESE
DIURNALLY STRONGER STORMS WARRANT CONTINUATION OF A "SLIGHT"
(2/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THE PRIMARY RISK EXPECTED TO
BE A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
A PRECIOUSLY ADVERTISED RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON
TUESDAY HAS BEEN WITHDRAWN ON THIS FORECAST CYCLE. RECENT TRENDS
SUGGEST EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY COULD RESULT IN A
SOMEWHAT MORE THERMODYNAMICALLY STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TOMORROW.
THROUGH THE WEEK, DEEP LAYER UPPER RIDGING WILL INITIALLY
RETROGRADE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AS UPPER TROUGHING GENERALLY MOVES
FURTHER NORTHEAST AND WEAKER AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS RESULTS IN
UPPER HEIGHTS REMAINING GENERALLY UNCHANGED BUT WITH A SOMEWHAT
REDUCED GRADIENT. THIS COULD MEAN SOMEWHAT OF A REDUCTION IN THE
NEAR DAILY RISK OF MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS, BUT EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE GENERALLY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL MEAN SOME DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION COULD STILL BRING
THE THREAT TO SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK AND TARGETED, MOSTLY LOWER-END
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS FOR SOME RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE
INTRODUCED WHEN WARRANTED. WITH A REDUCTION IN STORM COVERAGE
LIKELY AND A GENERAL RETURN TO WEAK, SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW
AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE RECENT NORTHERLIES, HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
BE ON THE REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEK. HEAT HEADLINES AND ADVISORIES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE WEEK PROGRESS. /SW/86/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 105 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2026
ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR TONIGHT AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO AFFECTED
SITES. THE WINDS WILL MAINLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY./15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 95 73 93 73 / 50 40 50 0
MERIDIAN 96 72 93 72 / 40 30 50 10
VICKSBURG 95 74 95 74 / 40 30 30 10
HATTIESBURG 97 74 93 73 / 50 50 70 10
NATCHEZ 98 76 96 75 / 30 20 20 0
GREENVILLE 93 73 96 75 / 60 50 50 20
GREENWOOD 92 71 93 73 / 60 50 50 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
86/15
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