320
FXUS64 KJAN 210505 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1105 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY LIGHT WIND SHOULD LEAD TO STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING OF OUR COOL DRY AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 40S IN SPOTS. FORECAST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 30S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO WITH FORECAST. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
TONIGHT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK (WEDNESDAY)...
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND(TONIGHT-SUNDAY): STOUT COLD CORE TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE TO SWING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY TO OH VALLEY, WITH A SFC LOW OCCLUDING OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SFC FURTHER SOUTH, HIGH PRESSURE & CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AS 1030MB HIGH SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD
OUT OF SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS & SOUTHWARDS
INTO THE PLAINS. BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES, THE SFC CYCLONE WILL
RETROGRADE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES BEFORE DIVING EAST-
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY TO NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL KEEP
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW & TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION,
GRADUALLY RELAXING FROM NEARLY 5- 6MB TODAY TO ONLY AROUND 3MB BY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL HELP WINDS GRADUALLY TO RELAX INTO LATE WEEK,
BUT SOME PERSISTENT GRADIENT WIND TO EXIST AROUND THE AREA. FOR
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS, THIS SUPPORTS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
SEASONABLY COOL HIGHS THURSDAY & ESPECIALLY FRIDAY, SOME 5F BELOW,
IN THE 60-66F RANGE THURSDAY & 54- 60F RANGE FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL BOTH NIGHTS, SOME 4- 6F BELOW, IN THE 36-40F
RANGE TONIGHT & 33-38F FRIDAY NIGHT. DUE TO SOME WIND AROUND,
FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WILL BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, IF GRADIENT CAN RELAX SOME, THIS COULD SUPPORT SOME
PATCHY FROST IN THE I-55, HWY 25 TO HWY 82 CORRIDOR FRIDAY
MORNING. ADDED A "LIMITED" IN THE HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THE
MORE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
1020MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE ARKLATEX TO GULF COAST
STATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT LIGHT TO DECOUPLING SFC WINDS & LOWS
FALLING NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING. THERE REMAINS VARIABILITY IN THE
OPERATIONAL BLENDED GUIDANCE BEING THE OUTLIER BUT GRADUALLY
CATCHING UP ON COLDER TEMPS. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE IS MORE
NARROWED, WITH 40-70% OF REACHING <=30F IN THE I-55 TO I-20
CORRIDORS, FOCUSED IN CENTRAL, NORTH-CENTRAL & NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. KEPT THE GOING "ELEVATED" GOING WITH NO CHANGES BUT
IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES & VARIABILITY BECOMES REDUCED, A
CATEGORICAL CHANGE IN HWO CATEGORIES MAY BE NEEDED & FREEZE
WARNINGS WOULD BECOME MORE LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER. MAKE SURE TO
MAKE PREPARATIONS FOR ANY UNPROTECTED VEGETATION. LOWS WILL BE
SEASONABLY COLD, SOME 6- 10F BELOW, IN THE 30-35F BUT COULD FALL
AS REASONABLY COLD AS 28F. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL IN THE
60-66F RANGE. AS NEAR ZONAL FLOW BUILDS IN & SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST,
EXPECT A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES INTO LATE WEEKEND,
WITH SOME PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL
TO EASTERN MS SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, SOME
6-12F ABOVE, IN THE 68-75F RANGE.
NEXT WEEK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY): MORE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL
COMMENCE, WITH A COUPLE OF FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED, ONE EARLY WEEK
AROUND MONDAY EVENING & ANOTHER EXPECTED MORE INTO LATE WEEK. THE
LATE WEEK SYSTEM HAS QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE DEPTH &
INTENSITY, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BECOME
SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 12-18F ABOVE, IN THE 75-81F RANGE BEFORE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKS SOUTHWARD, BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
POTENTIAL & MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY
WARM, SOME 15-20F ABOVE, IN THE 52-60F RANGE BOTH MONDAY & TUESDAY
MORNINGS, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 48-56F RANGE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE (15-
35%) AS THIS FRONT MOVES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. /DC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THE GUSTY NW WIND HAS SUBSIDED BUT NON CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AT MOST TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND WILL
GUST 18-22KTS AGAIN BY 16Z AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE SUBSIDING JUST AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 64 38 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 66 37 62 36 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 64 37 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 70 39 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 65 39 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 64 38 62 35 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 63 37 62 34 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/22/OAJ
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