755
FXUS64 KJAN 201719
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1219 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS WILL BUILD BACK IN AREAWIDE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A FRONT BRINGS DRIER AIR AND MORE
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES LATE NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 753 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE RIDGE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE THIS
MORNING. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN ONE OF THE HOTTEST IN THE NATION
AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
(COMPARE TO AN AVERAGE HIGH OF 87 THIS TIME OF YEAR) RECORDS COULD
ONCE AGAIN BE TIED/BROKEN. WHILE MOST THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
TODAY, INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL LEAVE A LOW
CHANCE (15%) FOR RAIN TODAY ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR. /SAS/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
ANOTHER HOT DAY IS ON TAP FOR TODAY AS AN H590 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100
ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 100-105. EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, BUT THERE COULD BE A STRAY SHOWER IN THE
SOUTHEAST. /15/
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
THE ANOMALOUS RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT RECORD BREAKING HEAT
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE APPROACH OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THERE IS A SUBTLE MOISTURE RETURN IN RESPONSE TO
THIS, WHICH WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE LOW 70S. THIS
SHOULD BOTH INCREASE DANGEROUS HEAT AS WELL AS RAIN CHANCES
BEGINNING MONDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES WILL
RANGE FROM 100-105+, WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WEST OF I-55. AN
ELEVATED HEAT GRAPHIC CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED. WOULD NOT RULE
OUT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. FURTHER EAST,
WHERE LOW (20-30%) RAIN CHANCES ARE FOCUSED, INDICES ARE LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA (105), BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A LIMITED
HEAT THREAT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, IN
PERHAPS THE FIRST SIGN OF THE COOL SEASON, WILL NOT BE STRICTLY
DIURNAL, AND SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SINCE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS STILL WEAK, THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OVER THE COURSE OF
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE MIDLEVEL
HIGH. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE AMONG THE GUIDANCE REGARDING THE
TIMING OF THE MAIN JET ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE, BUT
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT, AND IT MAKES METEOROLOGICAL SENSE, THAT
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE REINFORCED IN ITS WAKE LATE NEXT WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WITH A CONTINUATION
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
VFR PREVAILS WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
/SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 97 72 96 / 0 20 20 10
MERIDIAN 72 97 71 96 / 10 30 20 20
VICKSBURG 74 97 72 96 / 0 20 20 10
HATTIESBURG 73 96 71 96 / 10 40 10 10
NATCHEZ 74 97 73 97 / 0 20 10 10
GREENVILLE 75 99 73 95 / 0 20 20 10
GREENWOOD 73 99 71 96 / 0 20 20 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
15/22/SAS20
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