231
FXUS64 KJAN 140720
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
220 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY,
BUT CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA INCREASE FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THROUGH THIS MORNING:
MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION, IN CONJUNCTION WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT IS CREATING A FOG ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA GULF COASTS EARLY THIS MORNING. HREF PROBABILITIES SIGNAL
THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST PATCHY RADIATION/ADVECTION FOG TO
SPREAD UP TO AROUND THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE TODAY. FOR
NOW WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG WITH A "LIMITED" FOG THREAT
GRAPHIC THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND MONITOR FOR ANY WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY:
GIVEN THE RETURNING HUMIDITY, WILL ALSO LET THE CURRENT GRAPHIC FOR
HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPIRE. DEAD FUEL MOISTURE VALUES
ARE ABOVE 15 PERCENT AT RAWS SITES IN THE REGION, AND VEGETATIVE
GREENUP IS UNDERWAY. THAT SAID, CUMULATIVE DROUGHT STRESS MEANS THAT
CAUTION SHOULD BE EXERCISED WITH DRY VEGETATION ON BREEZY DAYS.
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING - AGAIN SPREADING FROM THE GULF COAST INTO AT LEAST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI WITH ADVECTION/RADIATION EFFECTS. A DOMINANT SURFACE
HIGH AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WILL BLUNT THE
CHANCE FOR AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO MAKE ITS WAY TOO FAR SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY, BUT GREATER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE IN
THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT A 20-40% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20. A RE-STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE FORECAST, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL EVEN FLIRT WITH 90 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN OUR FORECAST
AREA.
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BRING A TROUGH AND COOLER
SURFACE AIR INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE
RESULTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL STILL BE FAR TO OUR NORTH AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES, BUT A STRONGER COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. EXPECT INCREASED MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE (60%) OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG FOR MID-APRIL. 1025+ MB IS
ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH.
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED (AND DRY) IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ARE ACHIEVABLE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG OR
LOW STRATUS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS MAINLY AROUND
DAYBREAK, WITH CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY BE
GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG OR
LOW CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE WED MORNING. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 85 57 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 87 61 85 64 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 86 60 86 62 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 86 62 85 64 / 0 0 10 0
GREENVILLE 87 65 85 66 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 87 63 85 66 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/DL
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