849
FXUS64 KJAN 130746
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
246 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY OVER THE FIRST HALF OF THIS
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY: HEAT IS BECOMING THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS AS
MID/UPPER RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA TO NEAR 100
ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS DELTA. HEAT INDICES WILL REACH THE 105-110F
RANGE ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, THUS A HEAT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED BEYOND TODAY.
WHILE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT HELPED ORGANIZE CONVECTION
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY HAS BEGUN TO
SHIFT EAST, REMNANTS OF THIS FEATURE REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL/
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS THE MOST
LIKELY FOCUS FOR DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD AGAIN PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS. BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED AS
THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY: LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, USHERING IN A
RELATIVELY DRIER AIRMASS, ESPECIALLY BY THURSDAY. THIS AIRMASS
WILL STILL SUPPORT HOT DAYS, BUT WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO 60S
AND PERHAPS THE 50S, THIS WILL NOTABLY REDUCE HEAT STRESS DANGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WHILE DAYS WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY
WARM, MORNINGS WILL SEE TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE 60S MORE OFTEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN AROUND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH RETURNING
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT A POTENTIAL SHIFT THE
FOLLOWING WEEK TOWARD TEMPS CLOSER TO DAILY NORMALS, WITH PERHAPS
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S IN SOME AREAS...NOT A
REAL TASTE OF FALL, BUT PERHAPS FINALLY AN END TO THE FREQUENT
SPELLS OF EXCESSIVE HEAT? WE'RE KEEPING OUR FINGERS CROSSED, STAY
TUNED. /DL/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, AFTN TSRA MAY COME IN VCTY OF THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHWEST TAF SITES WHILE SCATTERED TSRA WL BE PSBL CNTRL AND
EAST. THE TSRA MY BRIEFLY RESULT IN LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
/22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 96 73 97 72 / 30 10 10 0
MERIDIAN 97 72 99 72 / 30 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 96 74 97 73 / 30 0 10 0
HATTIESBURG 95 73 97 72 / 40 0 10 0
NATCHEZ 96 74 96 73 / 20 10 20 0
GREENVILLE 98 74 100 74 / 20 10 10 0
GREENWOOD 98 73 100 72 / 10 0 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-
059>064-072.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
DL/22
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