423
FXUS64 KJAN 181346
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
846 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THE AREA LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
- DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 834 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND
BRING ALONG THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
NOT MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED, GENERALLY BETWEEN A QUARTER AND HALF
INCH, WE WILL TAKE THE TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM DRY CONDITIONS. THE
LIKELIEST WINDOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. A LAYER OF DRY
AIR ALOFT IS OBSERVED THIS MORNING JUST ABOVE 850MB, LIKELY DUE TO
MOIST TRAJECTORIES FOCUSED TO THE WEST. THIS WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS. /SAS/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: AFTER ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH CONDITIONS MORE
TYPICAL OF MID MAY, A SIGNIFICANT POLAR STREAM TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND
BRING THE FIRST OBSERVED RAINFALL IN ABOUT TWO WEEKS. ALTHOUGH
THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS WILL FEATURE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE MID 80S, POOR LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODEST
INSTABILITY. THIS COMBINED WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL LIMIT STORM INTENSITY WHILE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT KEEPS RAINFALL UNDER AN INCH ON AVERAGE. THE
FRONT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AIR.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK: MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, AND THIS COULD RAISE CONCERN FOR FIRE DANGER DEPENDING ON
HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS WITH THE FRONT. IT APPEARS THAT ENOUGH WILL
FALL TO MITIGATE WEATHER-RELATED FIRE DANGER AND WILL MONITOR FOR
NOW WITHOUT ANY FORMAL MESSAGING. OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL WARM
BACK UP AS WE GO THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
LIMITING RAIN CHANCES.
LOOKING AHEAD, GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE NEXT WEEKEND WITH WESTERLIES BECOMING MORE SUPPRESSED
AND HELPING TO SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO OUR REGION. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING, BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE ON THE
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DELTA
LATER THIS MORNING AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL BRING
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO TAF SITES, LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT./15
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 50 72 45 / 60 90 10 0
MERIDIAN 85 48 72 44 / 30 80 10 0
VICKSBURG 83 49 72 45 / 70 80 0 0
HATTIESBURG 87 51 72 45 / 10 70 20 0
NATCHEZ 85 50 73 46 / 60 80 10 0
GREENVILLE 80 49 71 48 / 70 30 0 0
GREENWOOD 80 48 72 45 / 80 60 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/15
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