218
FXUS64 KJAN 270709
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
209 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT: EARLIER UPPER LOW HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD, WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND COLD CORE NEAR THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. AN AREA OF
POTENTIAL VORTICITY IS STRETCHED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO THE TX GULF COAST. THIS IS DRIVING A COMPLEX MOVING
TOWARDS THE HOUSTON METRO THAT WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD
INTO ARKLATEX AND POTENTIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
AROUND MIDDAY (AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING TO AS LATE AS EARLY
AFTERNOON). THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY ORGANIZED AND
LIKELY MORE COLD POOL PROPAGATING, BUT COULD BE THE IMPETUS FOR
MORE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION. UPPER JET
WILL BE EJECTING INTO THE ARKLATEX, BUT LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE
WEAKER THAN BEFORE. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS IN COVERAGE (55 TO 80 PERCENT). HIGHS WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE (MID 80S), WITH SEASONABLY WARM LOWS THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN TONIGHT (UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S). HREF PROBABILITY MATCH MEAN
(PMMS) INDICATE ANOTHER ROUND OF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBS (10 PERCENT) FOR
RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THERE ARE SCATTERED AREAS OF HREF
MAXIMUMS AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER. BECAUSE THIS
IS MORE SITUATED FURTHER WESTWARD MIGRATION OF QPF AXIS. TROPICAL
MOISTURE (1.8 TO 2 INCH PWS, LIGHT, 5-10KTS, TO VARIABLE
BACKBUILDING VECTORS AND 850MB THETA E AROUND 335-340K) SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ONGOING HWO GRAPHIC LOOKS VALID.
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY: AS UPPER LOW OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE
LIFTS NORTH, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED BUT LIGHTER
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A LONGWAVE QUASI-
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN INTO MID TO LATE WEEK (UPPER LOW CAUGHT OVER
THE PACIFIC STATES AND DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST STATES INTO EASTERN CANADA). HOWEVER, THIS SYNOPTIC
PATTERN DOESN'T LOOK AS ESTABLISHED AS A TYPICAL OMEGA BLOCK, WITH
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FL PENINSULA. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE QUASI-OMEGA BLOCK THE PERTURBED
ENERGY/VORT MAX WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY. THIS WILL KEEP
LIGHT RETURN FLOW BUT DEEP MOISTURE NEAR 2 INCH PWS AND LIGHT
BACKBUILDING FLOW THROUGH LATE WEEK. RAIN COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH THE WORK WEEK (55 TO 90 PERCENT DAILY) WITH THURSDAY
HIGHER COVERAGE AREAWIDE WHILE MORE FOCUSED EASTWARD INTO FRIDAY.
KEPT "LIMITED" GOING INTO LATE WEEK (THURSDAY TO FRIDAY) WITH
CONTINUED ANTECEDENT SUPPORT AND LOCAL MESOSCALE FEATURES DRIVING
DAY-TO-DAY FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. THIS WILL BE NEED TO BE
CONTINUALLY EVALUATED DAILY.
AS THE UPPER LIFTS AND SHEARS OUT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TO MID
MS VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND, WESTERLY FLOW WILL LOCK IN, LEADING TO
LESS MOIST GULF INFLUENCE AND MORE SCATTERED RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE
(55 TO 70 PERCENT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). HIGHS REMAIN SEASONABLY
COOL THIS WEEK (LOW TO UPPER 80S) WHILE GENERALLY SEASONABLY WARM
LOWS (UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S). LONGER RANGE PATTERN CONSISTS OF
SURFACE HIGH DIVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUAL DRYING FRONT
FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER TRENDS HAVE SLOWED, WITH MOST RELIEF IN
RAIN COVERAGE BECOMING MORE SCATTERED NEXT MONDAY TO ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NEXT TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY (20 TO 40 PERCENT). CONTINUED
SEASONABLE COOL HIGHS AND LESS SEASONABLY WARM LOWS WILL BE THE
NORM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /DC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
AN MVFR TO IFR STRATUS DECK IS BEGINNING TO BUILD ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST MS AND IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING IN MOST AREAS,
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED TSRA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION AT MOST SPECIFIC SITES, BUT THESE COULD
LEAD TO MOSTLY BRIEF VISBY RESTRICTIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
STRATUS CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 86 70 83 69 / 60 50 80 40
MERIDIAN 86 69 84 69 / 70 20 70 50
VICKSBURG 85 70 82 69 / 80 60 80 30
HATTIESBURG 85 70 84 69 / 80 50 80 40
NATCHEZ 86 70 83 69 / 80 60 80 40
GREENVILLE 85 70 82 69 / 70 50 70 50
GREENWOOD 86 70 84 69 / 60 50 80 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/DL
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