000
FXUS64 KJAN 211141 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
641 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE
TO VERY DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY EACH DAY.
- DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK, WITH COOL OVERNIGHTS AND MORNINGS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
OUR DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY, AS IT WILL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE IS MAINTAINING STEADY
CONTROL ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. PWS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 3/4 INCH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THEN AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHIFTS MORE EASTERLY, THE AIRMASS WILL BE REINFORCED BY DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR, WITH PW FALLING TO 1/4-1/2 INCH (AROUND 50
PCT OF NORMAL) IN MOST AREAS. WITHIN THIS DRY REGIME, DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL BE GREATER, WITH COOL MORNINGS AND WARM
AFTERNOONS. WITH THE SHIFT TO EASTERLY FLOW, HIGH TEMPS WON'T BE
QUITE AS WARM OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, BUT THEY WILL STILL
BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN THE PERSISTENT DRY PATTERN, FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE
PRIMARILY CONCERN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEK. ANTECEDENT GROUND
CONDITIONS/FUELS ARE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY (DAILY MAX ERCS IN THE
90TH+ PERCENTILE) WITH RHS FALLING TO 20-30 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON
AND AT TIMES FALLING INTO THE TEENS. HOWEVER, WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME, WHICH IS
WHY WE DON'T IMMINENTLY ANTICIPATE A MORE CRITICAL SITUATION
WORTHY OF RED FLAG PRODUCTS. REGARDLESS, GREAT CAUTION IS STILL
WARRANTED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, OR
IT SHOULD BE AVOIDED ALTOGETHER, AS LOCAL BURN BANS CONTINUE TO
BE ADDED ACROSS OUR AREA. IF THERE ARE ANY SIGNS IN LATER
FORECASTS OF STRONGER WIND, MESSAGING MAY NEED TO BE ELEVATED
ACCORDINGLY. /DL/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 5 KTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 82 51 83 50 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 80 47 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 82 49 83 47 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 82 47 84 46 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 81 49 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 81 50 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 82 46 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/SW
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