966
FXUS64 KJAN 040218 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
918 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- MUCH NEEDED RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY WEATHER
RESUMES.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
CONVECTION HAS WINDED DOWN ACROSS THE REGION. SYNOPTIC AND
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING INDICATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE, WHILE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
IS BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. STOUT TROUGH IS
EVIDENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS IN GOES EAST WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY, WITH AN EVOLVING FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THESE REGIONS.
SEASONABLE WARMTH IS ON TAP, SOME 15F TO 20F ABOVE (63F TO 66F
SOUTHEAST OF DELTA WHILE 67F TO 69F IN THE DELTA REGION). LOW
STRATUS WILL BE THE NORM, WITH ANY FOG IN THE PINE BELT. HREF
DENSE FOG PROBS ARE NIL, SO NO CONCERNS FOR DENSE FOG WITH
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. UPDATES WERE SENT OUT EARLIER. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
SATURDAY: SPC MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MARGINAL RISK AREA TO
INCLUDE ALL OF OUR SOUTHEAST AREA, BUT REASONING AND TIMING ARE
STILL ABOUT THE SAME. THE "PEAK" STORM INTENSITY SHOULD BE OVER NE
LA/SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL MS DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO EVENING TIME FRAME WHERE PEAK HEATING AND PRE-FRONTAL SFC-
BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD COINCIDE. THERE WAS A SE SHIFT IN THE
MARGINAL AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES, BUT
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR SHOULD STILL HAVE A LESSER
THREAT COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER WEST. OTHERWISE, THIS IS STILL
NOT A VERY IMPRESSIVE EVENT IN TERMS OF THE STORM INGREDIENTS.
WEAK LAPSE RATES, WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND WEAK FORCING ALL
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR GREATER, MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE, BUT JUST
ENOUGH OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN THIS MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL ALSO SUPPORT
A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN MODE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
LIKE DAYS PREVIOUSLY, INGREDIENTS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
BRIEF SUB SEVERE OR LOW END SEVERE STORM.
ADDITIONALLY, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF TRAINING STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT, AND CONSIDERING THE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN HOWEVER, WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL MERELY BE A BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL.
SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK: IN THE WAKE, SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY, COOLER
AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED AND WILL LEAD TO GREATER DIURNAL RANGES
INTO MID NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN SUNDAY/MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REINFORCE THIS DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, UNTIL THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WHEN WEAK MOISTURE
RECOVERY SHOULD BRING SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST,
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. /SAS/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
CONVECTION HAS WINDED DOWN ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR TO IFR LOW
STRATUS (WORST FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT HBG, PIB AND MEI) WITH
PATCHY FOG/BR DEVELOPING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ONSET IS GENERALLY
AFTER 04/04-05Z SATURDAY IN PINE BELT (HBG AND PIB), 04/07-10Z IN
SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN SITES (HEZ, HKS, JAN AND MEI)
AND 04/10-11Z IN HWY 82 SITES (GLH, GWO AND GTR). WORST FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE FOCUSED AROUND 04/09-12Z. SOUTHERLY GRADIENT
WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING BUT PICK UP INTO SATURDAY. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES PICK UP SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, WITH
THE OCCASIONAL DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD AS EARLY AS
04/16Z AND HIGHEST COVERAGE AFTER 04/19-22Z THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 66 82 55 70 / 0 80 100 20
MERIDIAN 64 85 55 70 / 0 70 90 50
VICKSBURG 66 83 54 69 / 20 90 90 10
HATTIESBURG 67 85 63 74 / 0 70 90 60
NATCHEZ 67 83 55 70 / 20 90 90 20
GREENVILLE 67 80 51 67 / 20 90 80 0
GREENWOOD 67 83 53 70 / 10 90 90 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/SAS20/EC
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