110
FXUS64 KJAN 210757
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
257 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING
SOUTHWARDS THE GULF COAST. THIS WILL HELP FOCUS SCATTERED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. CAM GUIDANCE FROM EARLY THIS
MORNING IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP
THE POPS TO AROUND 20-40% IN ORDER TO BETTER REFLECT THE STORM
COVERAGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS (AROUND 45%) ACROSS THE PINE
BELT. ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS WILL BE PRETTY
WEAK DUE TO THE LACK OF VERTICAL SHEAR, THE COMBINATION OF THE HOT,
HUMID, AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AND STEEP LOW LAPSE
RATES WILL SUPPORT DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS. AT THIS TIME NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE SEVERE GRAPHIC FOR TODAY AND A
"MARGINAL" RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. THE TIMING OF THESE STORMS STILL
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 3PM-9PM.
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S AND HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
ARKANSAS, NORTHEAST LOUISIANA, AND MUCH OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.
LIKEWISE, THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8
PM THIS EVENING FOR AREAS THAT COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 115
DEGREES. THESE AREAS INCLUDE PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA,
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL, SOUTHWEST, AND WEST CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI. /CR/
THE FORECAST MESSAGING FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE
SAME WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF OUR CWA AN TOWARDS THE GULF COAST HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. LIMITED TO ELEVATED DANGEROUS HEAT WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES/HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THESE TWO
DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION DOWN BELOW
FOR MORE INFORMATION:
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK: GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THAT A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A NW-SE ORIENTED THERMAL
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT THE GREATEST HEAT STRESS OVER SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THIS DOESN'T APPEAR IT WILL BE
MORE THAN A LIMITED TO POTENTIALLY ELEVATED DANGEROUS HEAT
SITUATION. THIS PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT AN OCCASIONAL MCS THREAT, BUT
TIMING DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN, AND OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ARE NOT
GREAT IN THE MEAN. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THOSE NEEDING RAINFALL, THERE
ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR IT AT THIS POINT ASIDE FROM A GRADUAL
UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES AS WE GO LATER INTO NEXT WEEK. /EC/CR/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA MAY AFFECT GTR BY 09Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL UNTIL ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSRA DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND BEGIN AFFECTING TAF SITES
CNTRL AND SOUTH AFTER 20Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 99 73 99 74 / 20 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 97 72 98 73 / 30 10 0 10
VICKSBURG 100 73 99 73 / 10 10 0 10
HATTIESBURG 98 73 98 73 / 50 30 0 0
NATCHEZ 101 74 101 74 / 30 20 20 10
GREENVILLE 100 73 100 73 / 0 0 10 20
GREENWOOD 97 71 98 71 / 0 0 0 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-065-066-073-
074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MSZ040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.
LA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
CR/22/CR
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