473
FXUS64 KJAN 021248 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
648 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA TODAY.
- AFTER A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR THE WEEKEND, A SIGNIFICANT WARM-
UP IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO WELL
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SHORT-TERM WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE REGION IS GENERATING ENOUGH LIFT FOR
SOME LIGHT RAIN, BUT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
ONLY REPORTING "TRACE" AMOUNTS IN OUR REGION. A FEW DEEPER SHOWERS
OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (MAINLY EAST OF I-55)
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES FURTHER EAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
OVERALL, THIS FORECAST LOOKS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY. A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM TODAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO GENERATE STORMS OR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FOR OUR AREA DUE
TO THE LIMITED TIME FOR RETURN FLOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY WEAK POLAR HIGH PRESSURE AND A BRIEF COOL-DOWN BEFORE MORE
SIGNIFICANT WARMTH RETURNS WITH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS.
LOOKING AT THE DETAILS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT LIKELY IN MOST AREAS. ATOP THE RATHER
SHALLOW SURFACE MOISTURE, OWING TO LIMITED RESIDENCE TIME OVER
WATER OF THE INCOMING PREFRONTAL MOISTURE PLUME, A REMNANT CAPPING
INVERSION WITH POOR LAPSE RATES ABOVE WILL LIMIT SHOWER/STORM
COVERAGE IN THE AREAS WHERE THE BETTER COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IS LIKELY. THIS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE MEANINGFUL
UPGRADES IN THE RISK OUTLOOK BEYOND THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM OR TWO WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY MORNING
BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. QUIET CONDITIONS THEN ARE LIKELY
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW MODERATES THE
TEMPERATURES TO WELL ABOVE EARLY JANUARY NORMALS - DAYTIME HIGHS
INTO THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S FOR MID/LATE WEEK. THE
NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND THEN IFR CEILINGS AS
MOISTURE INCREASES IN THE REGION. LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT IMPACTS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM CEILINGS. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 71 56 64 42 / 30 30 10 0
MERIDIAN 68 56 66 41 / 50 60 30 0
VICKSBURG 74 54 63 39 / 30 10 10 0
HATTIESBURG 74 61 75 46 / 30 40 30 0
NATCHEZ 76 56 67 42 / 20 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 66 50 57 36 / 60 10 10 0
GREENWOOD 67 51 60 36 / 70 40 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/NF
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