873  
FXUS64 KJAN 140206  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
906 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024  
   
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
 
 
   
MESOSCALE UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 906 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS SURFACE RIDGING  
REMAINS OVER THE REGION. CLEAR SKIES AND OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES  
IN THE MIDDLE 60S ARE EXPECTED. NO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE AND  
UPDATES ARE OUT. /SW/  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...  
 
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. QUIET AND DRY  
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TONIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DUE  
TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SKIES  
WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALLOWING  
FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. BECAUSE OF THIS, OVERNIGHT LOWS  
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TOMORROW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO PREVAIL  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND  
SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAK INTO THE MID  
90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. /CR/  
 
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY:  
 
INCREASINGLY HOT TEMPS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH  
TEMPS NEARING RECORD HIGHS. A H5 592 DM RIDGE WILL BE FIRMLY  
ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNDER THE  
HIGH PRESSURE, THE DRY AIRMASS WILL WARM INTO THE 97 - 101 DEGREE  
RANGE. HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEARING 105 DEGREES THUS A  
LIMITED THREAT FOR INCREASING HEAT STRESS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE HWO  
FOR THIS WEEKEND. WHILE TEMPS WILL REMAIN HOT THERE IS SOME  
VARIABILITY ON SATURDAY, POSSIBLE LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE AREA WHICH  
WOULD CAUSE LOWER HEAT INDICES A FEW DEGREES MITIGATING THE HEAT  
THREAT. SUNDAY MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES  
AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AND SHIFTS TO BECOME SOUTHERLY CAUSING  
HEAT INDICES TO BE HIGHER SUNDAY. IN THE EVEN THIS HAPPENS INCREASED  
MOISTURE WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPS IN THE SOUTH BY A FEW DEGREES.  
 
SUNDAY HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD LEAVING ROOM FOR THERE  
TO BE A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY  
IN THE SOUTH. THE INCREASED MOISTURE, HIGH TEMPS NEARING 100 DEGREES  
COMBINED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SHIFT AND A WAVE PUSHING ACROSS WILL  
GIVE WAY TO POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND STORMS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF  
HWY-84. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE AS IT MOVES EASTWARD LEADING TO A DRIER  
AIRMASS.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY FOR RAIN AND  
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK  
NORTH INTO OUR AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASED  
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE  
AREA WITH PWATS NEARING 2IN. THROUGH THE LONG TERM THERE IS A NEAR  
40 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE  
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND TRANSITION INTO A TROPICAL  
DEPRESSION, HOWEVER THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS  
MEXICO. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT OUR AREA SEES ANY IMPACTS./KP/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 729 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD,  
WITH CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED. /NF/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 66 94 71 98 / 0 0 0 0  
MERIDIAN 66 96 71 100 / 0 0 0 0  
VICKSBURG 65 94 70 98 / 0 0 0 0  
HATTIESBURG 68 97 72 99 / 0 0 0 10  
NATCHEZ 66 93 70 98 / 0 0 0 0  
GREENVILLE 67 96 73 98 / 0 0 0 0  
GREENWOOD 66 95 72 98 / 0 0 0 0  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
CR/KP/NF  
 
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