146
FXUS64 KJAN 071958
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
158 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH WIND AND
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
- THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT SINCE
JANUARY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF STORMS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION. A LINE
OF STORMS IS PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION, FORCED IN PART
FROM FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING MOIST ASCENT (PWS
APPROACHING ONE AND THREE QUARTERS INCH) WILL DRIVE STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER SYNOPTIC
ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATE STALLED BAJA COLD CORE LOW WHILE
STRONG POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA) OFF TO THE NORTH. THIS
IS KEEPING OUR REGION CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MOST EFFICIENT
ASCENT OFF TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWARD SINKING COLD FRONT
IS AIDING IN FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WIDESPREAD MCS SAGGING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE DELTA AS WE SPEAK. BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP
SHEAR IS AROUND 30-35KTS, BUT MCS ORIENTATION IS MORE LINE
PARALLEL TO THE SHEAR. THIS IS DRIVING A MORE COLD POOL DOMINANT
MCS INTO THE AREA, WHICH COULD LIMIT THE MOST EFFICIENT LINE
ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION TO ANY NORTH-SOUTH BOWING SEGMENTS. LAPSE
RATES, 850MB TEMPERATURES AND DCAPE ARE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS,
GENERALLY IN EXCESS OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE TO DAILY MAXIMUM
VALUES. ALL OF THIS BEING SAID, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY IN ANY AREAS OF FAVORABLE LINE SEGMENT SHEAR
ORIENTATION OR STORM CELL MERGERS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ARE
IN EFFECT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ONE IN THE DELTA EXPIRING AT 2PM
AND THE OTHER WATCH, EXCLUDING THE SOUTHERN THREE TIER OF
COUNTIES (MARION, LAMAR AND FORREST), THROUGH 9PM. HWO GRAPHIC
LOOKED GOOD OVERALL, JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING
WERE NEEDED.
THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH AND LINE PARALLEL FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO A QUICK LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TRANSITION. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN AREAS OF TRAINING AND STORM CELL
MERGERS, POTENTIALLY GREATER THAN 3 INCHES IN SOME AREAS.
EXPANDING THE HWO GRAPHIC SOUTHEAST TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THE
ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH AND POTENTIAL STORM MERGERS
IN THESE AREAS. CAMS HIT A LITTLE HARDER ON THIS. THERE IS LESS
FOCUS TO THE NORTHWEST, SO REMOVING SOME OF THE LIMITED AREA AND
FOCUSED TO CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING NEARLY 20F ABOVE NORMAL, WELL INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S IN SOME AREAS. MOST SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL
LESSEN JUST AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT RAIN CHANCES PERSIST. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUE INTO THE INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR THROUGH TONIGHT, LEADING TO CONTINUED RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 18F TO 22F
ABOVE NORMAL (58F TO 66F).
RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS ATTACHED BELOW. /DC/
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT: THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES SUNDAY AND OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
NEARLY ZONAL DOWNSTREAM OF THE CUTOFF LOW OVER BAJA.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: THE STALLED FRONT WILL REMAIN THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MONDAY AS IT BEGINS LIFTING NORTH AS A
WARM FRONT. A FEW SUBTLE DISTURBANCES COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND THE WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS OUR CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. THE CUTOFF
LOW WILL DRIFT EAST MONDAY BUT THEN OPEN UP AND EJECT OUT MORE
RAPIDLY TUESDAY. RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN BACK
OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND THIS LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES START INCREASING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ONCE WAS THE CUTOFF LOW. INITIALLY HEIGHTS
LOOK RATHER HIGH BUT A POTENT NORTHERN DISTURBANCE WILL COME IN
PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN TROUGH AND BRING A THREAT OF SEVERE STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING A
CLEARING FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BY THURSDAY A
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE OVER OUR REGION. FRIDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING WITH LOW TO MID 40S
AREAWIDE. /22/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1157 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
A BUSY AVIATION DAY IS IN STORE. VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST. COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY
8Z. IN THE WAKE, TRAILING STRATIFORM WILL LEAD TO LOW IFR CEILINGS
AND MVFR VISIBILITY./SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 64 75 62 81 / 80 70 10 50
MERIDIAN 62 75 62 81 / 90 80 20 50
VICKSBURG 63 75 61 81 / 80 70 10 50
HATTIESBURG 66 79 65 84 / 70 80 10 40
NATCHEZ 64 77 64 81 / 80 80 10 50
GREENVILLE 58 69 59 77 / 80 40 0 70
GREENWOOD 61 73 59 80 / 80 50 10 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/22/SAS20
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