089
FXUS64 KJAN 152316 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
616 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE NEAR 105 TO 115 DEGREES.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
OPPRESSIVE HEAT REMAINS THE MAIN CONCERN INTO THE EVENING. DEEP
RIDGE (597-599DM) IS KEEPING ANOMALOUS WARMTH AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AROUND. THERE IS AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LESS DEEP MOISTURE
(1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES) IN THE INTERSTATE 55 TO HIGHWAY 45 CORRIDORS.
THAT IS GRADUALLY GETTING SQUASHED FROM THE WEST AND TO THE EAST,
WHERE SOME RAIN CHANCES ARE ONGOING TO THE EAST AND TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH
A FEW SITES HIGHS ECLIPSING THE CENTURY MARK (GREENVILLE-GLH,
JACKSON/HAWKINS FIELD-HKS, HATTIESBURG-HBG). DANGEROUS HEAT
PERSISTS, WITH THE INHERITED HEAT ADVISORY ONGOING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. DEWPOINTS HAVE MIXED SOME (65F TO 69F) SO THAT
HAS HELD BACK SOME OF THE WORST HEAT/HUMIDITY, BUT THAT WILL ONLY
WORSEN INTO LATE WEEKEND INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY
OVERNIGHT RELIEF REMAINS LIMITED AS LOWS STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW
80F. RECORD WARM LOWS REMAIN POSSIBLE. UPDATES WERE SENT OUT
EARLIER. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
THE THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST
MIDWEEK REMAINS OUR MESSAGE THIS WEEKEND. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF CURRENT VERY HOT
AIR TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 20-23 C ARE SUPPORTING
DAYTIME MAX TEMPS NEAR 100 WITH DEEP MIXING IN OUR REGION. THE
HUMIDITY IS LESSENED BY MIXING AS WELL, BUT STILL ENOUGH TO KEEP
DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES MAXING OUT AROUND 105-115 DEGREES. A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME PORTIONS OF
THE AREA COULD EXCEED 110 DEGREE HEAT INDICES TOMORROW, AND A
PORTION OF THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO AN EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.
BY MIDWEEK, THE RIDGE WILL CONSOLIDATE AND AMPLIFY OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, LETTING A TROUGH PATTERN SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
THERE SHOULD BE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AT LEAST IN THE FORM OF
"COOLER" AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT, BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THURSDAY ONWARD, MOST
LOCATIONS HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. /NF/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS, UNDER SCATTERED TO
BROKEN (SCT-BKN) CUMULUS DECK BETWEEN 5-8KFT (MAINLY DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS). SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY (SUSTAINED/GUSTS LESS THAN 10MPH),
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WESTERLY ON SUNDAY. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 77 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 75 100 77 100 / 0 0 10 10
VICKSBURG 77 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 77 101 78 100 / 0 10 10 20
NATCHEZ 77 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 79 102 80 102 / 0 0 0 10
GREENWOOD 77 100 79 101 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
DC/NF
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