764
FXUS64 KJAN 162336
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
536 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP TAKES PLACE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK:
WARM ADVECTION ALOFT IS HASTENING THE RETREAT OF THE COLD/DRY AIR
MASS IN OUR REGION TODAY, AND SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE RESPONDING
WITH TEMPERATURES/DEWPOINTS GETTING BACK TO MORE TYPICAL VALUES.
TONIGHT WE'LL SEE A GREATER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE OVER
MAINLY THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK.
THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BY THURSDAY, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL HELP TO FOCUS DEEPER
MOISTURE, AND INCREASING LIFT MAY HELP TO INITIATE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS AN ADDED COMPLEXITY
THAT REDUCES THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTS. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING STRONG AGREEMENT FOR A THUNDERSTORM
CLUSTER TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND MOVE ONSHORE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION EARLY THURSDAY, AND THIS COULD DISRUPT
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN OUR AREA BY INTERCEPTING BETTER
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW THIS SCENARIO WILL
EVOLVE IN THE DETAILS, AND WITH SPC AND ML/AI GUIDANCE MAINTAINING
BETTER SEVERE WEATHER PROBS NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FORMAL MESSAGING, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
WEAK INSTABILITY/LIFT.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS
WILL BE A RELATIVELY QUICK SHOT OF COOL AIR WITH THE COLDER
ANOMALIES PASSING WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THE PROGRESSIVE WEATHER
PATTERN. THEREAFTER A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM-UP APPEARS DEFINITE
NOW GIVEN STRONG AGREEMENT AMONG GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS IT IS ABOUT AS WARM OF PATTERN AS YOU WILL EVER SEE
IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS AS WE LEAD UP TO CHRISTMAS DAY. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
AS OF 2320Z, ALL TAF SITES ARE UNDER VFR CEILINGS TO START OFF THE
PERIOD. VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A FEW SOUTHERN SITES (MAINLY PIB AND HBG) WILL SEE
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY DROP DOWN TO MVFR STATUS BETWEEN 09Z/11Z
WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ACROSS SOUTH MS AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED LIGHT SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH
BY 08Z BEFORE BECOMING WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON; HOWEVER,
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT IMPACTS WILL BE LOW. SCATTERED SHRA WILL
CONTINUE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 41 65 53 71 / 0 20 30 80
MERIDIAN 37 62 48 67 / 0 20 40 80
VICKSBURG 42 64 53 71 / 10 30 10 80
HATTIESBURG 40 67 53 73 / 0 20 50 70
NATCHEZ 43 66 54 74 / 10 20 20 60
GREENVILLE 41 57 51 66 / 40 30 20 90
GREENWOOD 42 61 51 66 / 30 30 20 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/CR
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