554
FXUS64 KJAN 032014
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
314 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- MUCH NEEDED RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY WEATHER
RESUMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
SATURDAY: SPC MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MARGINAL RISK AREA TO
INCLUDE ALL OF OUR SOUTHEAST AREA, BUT REASONING AND TIMING ARE
STILL ABOUT THE SAME. THE "PEAK" STORM INTENSITY SHOULD BE OVER NE
LA/SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL MS INTO CENTRAL MS DURING THE AFTERNOON
TO EVENING TIME FRAME WHERE PEAK HEATING AND PRE-FRONTAL SFC-
BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD COINCIDE. THERE WAS A SE SHIFT IN THE
MARGINAL AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES, BUT
LOCATIONS ALONG THE I-59 CORRIDOR SHOULD STILL HAVE A LESSER
THREAT COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER WEST. OTHERWISE, THIS IS STILL
NOT A VERY IMPRESSIVE EVENT IN TERMS OF THE STORM INGREDIENTS.
WEAK LAPSE RATES, WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR, AND WEAK FORCING ALL
LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR GREATER, MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE, BUT JUST
ENOUGH OF THESE INGREDIENTS WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN THIS MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 WILL ALSO SUPPORT
A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN MODE AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.
LIKE DAYS PREVIOUSLY, INGREDIENTS COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A
BRIEF SUB SEVERE OR LOW END SEVERE STORM.
ADDITIONALLY, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF TRAINING STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT, AND CONSIDERING THE SLOWED PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CONCERN HOWEVER, WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. IT WILL MERELY BE A BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL.
SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK: IN THE WAKE, SOMETIME LATER SUNDAY, COOLER
AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED AND WILL LEAD TO GREATER DIURNAL RANGES
INTO MID NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWING A BRIEF COOL DOWN SUNDAY/MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS BY TUESDAY.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD REINFORCE THIS DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK, UNTIL THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WHEN WEAK MOISTURE
RECOVERY SHOULD BRING SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST,
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST. /SAS/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2026
PIB IS CURRENTLY REPORTING MVFR CEILINGS AS OF 1719Z. OTHER TAF
SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A
GUSTY SOUTH WIND 17-20KT WL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THIS AFTN UNTIL
DIMINISHING AFTER 22Z. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY COME IN VCTY OF GLH AND
HEZ THIS AFTN BUT NO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. VFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH 04Z SATURDAY. AFTER
04Z, PIB AND HBG WILL SEE CEILINGS DROP TO MVFR/IFR. MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 08Z TO 14Z SATURDAY. MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TAF SITES BY 15Z SATURDAY. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 66 82 55 70 / 0 80 100 20
MERIDIAN 64 85 55 70 / 0 70 90 50
VICKSBURG 66 83 54 69 / 10 90 90 10
HATTIESBURG 67 85 63 74 / 0 70 90 60
NATCHEZ 67 83 55 70 / 20 90 90 20
GREENVILLE 67 80 51 67 / 20 90 80 0
GREENWOOD 66 83 53 70 / 10 90 90 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/EC/CR
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