460
FXUS64 KJAN 221805
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
105 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO VERY DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY EACH
DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK:
THE FORECAST IS VERY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, AND
CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE HIGH IN THE FORECAST DETAILS. GLOBAL MODEL
ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION
AS WE FINISH UP THE WEEK AND GO INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER WITH LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES APPROACHING 40 DEG F.
OF GREATEST IMPORTANCE, THE CONTINUED DRYING OF VEGETATION
COMBINED WITH EXCEPTIONALLY LOW DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MESSAGE THIS THROUGH THE GRAPHICS AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. WIND
SHOULD HAVE LESS INFLUENCE AND BE A SMALLER FACTOR IN DETERMINING
THE FIRE DANGER THREAT LEVELS.
OTHERWISE, RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK AT THE
EARLIEST, WHEN THE RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN. /EC/OAJ/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 5-8 KTS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 51 84 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 46 80 43 76 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 49 85 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 47 84 45 79 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 52 85 53 83 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 50 83 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 48 84 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/OAJ/OAJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page