219
FXUS64 KJAN 141911
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
111 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS INTO THE 10 TO
20 DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
- A WARM-UP WILL BRING MUCH MILDER TEMPERATURES BY WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK FOR THE FORECAST AREA
WITH VERY STRONG COLD ADVECTION USHERING IN ARCTIC AIR WITH STRONG
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS AND LOW WIND CHILLS. NO CHANGES ARE BEING
MADE TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND MESSAGING FOR LOW WIND CHILL
AND TEMPERATURE READINGS GOING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
WIND WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT, BUT THE COLD ANOMALIES WILL PEAK AT
ABOUT DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, THE COLD AIR MASS WILL
SLOWLY MODIFY AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE AS THE THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH MONDAY
NIGHT WILL SEE TEMPERATURES DIP BACK WELL INTO THE 20S. /EC/
EARLY WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND (TUESDAY-SATURDAY): SYNOPTIC FLOW
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTERLY THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK IN ADVANCE
OF A DEEPENING SPOKE OF VORTICITY DIVING INTO THE SIERRA MADRES.
AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS EAST, WARM ADVECTION AND MODERATION
WILL BE THE NORM. THERE COULD BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN AROUND MID WEEK AND SCATTERED COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. WE WILL PROBABLY NEED TO MONITOR
SOME STORM POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT AROUND THURSDAY, AS THERE
COULD BE SOME MEAN DEEP LAYER SHEAR (30 TO 50KTS) AND SUBTLE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES FOR SOME STRONGER CONVECTION. SYNOPTIC
AMPLITUDE DETAILS ARE COMING IN ALIGNMENT, SO CONFIDENCE IS A
TOUCH IMPROVED FROM YESTERDAY. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
NORTHERLY GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES UNTIL 05Z
MONDAY. AFTER 05Z, WINDS WILL SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE, QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WITH VFR CEILINGS
PREVAILING. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 21 46 25 57 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 20 46 22 56 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 21 44 28 55 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 22 49 25 62 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 22 48 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 20 39 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 18 44 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR ARZ074-075.
EC/DC/CR/
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