983
FXUS64 KJAN 110552 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1252 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIMITED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THIS WEEKEND. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK:
THROUGH SATURDAY: A SURFACE RIDGE WHICH HELPED TO LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES YESTERDAY WILL BEGIN TO LOSE INFLUENCE IN OUR REGION AS IT
RETREATS EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC. ACROSS NORTH MS AND PERHAPS
INTO PARTS OF AR AND NORTH LA, DEWPOINTS WILL AGAIN MIX DOWN INTO
THE 60S WITH LIMITED RAIN CHANCES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER
SOUTH, AN INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY A SURFACE
TROUGH LIFTING TOWARD THE GULF COAST TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE
DIURNAL CONVECTION AND RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF THE
AREA. BY TOMORROW, ALONG WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE NORTHWARD
MOVING TROUGH, A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH
WITH A WEAK SUMMERTIME FRONT STALLING TO OUR NORTH, RESULTING IN
HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN WE'VE
SEEN SO FAR TODAY. THIS REGIME WILL CARRY OVER INTO SATURDAY TO
SOME EXTENT, THOUGH THE SHORTWAVE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD.
IT WILL STILL BE SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH OR BRIEFLY REACH ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS IN A FEW SPOTS, BUT THE HEAT STRESS THREAT IS EXPECTED
TO BE TEMPERED ENOUGH BY MIXING NORTH AND INCREASED PRECIP/CLOUDS
SOUTH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
STILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT LIMITED HEAT STRESS CONCERNS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: UPPER RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK
IN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, LEADING US BACK TO MORE
TYPICAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SUMMERTIME DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES AND
TEMPERATURES TICKING BACK UPWARD TOWARD THE UPPER 90S IN SOME
AREAS. WITH A RATHER MUGGY AIRMASS STILL AROUND, WE MAY BEGIN TO
SEE HEAT INDICES AGAIN REACHING CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE AREA.
/DL/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z. AFTER 09Z VARYING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS PSBL ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SOUTHEAST ALONG WITH VCSH ACROSS
THE SE BY 12Z. CIGS WL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS THE SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY INCREASES IN COVERAGE CNTRL AND SOUTH. BY 18Z SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY WL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AS WELL.
THE CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AFTER 0Z SAT AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 93 72 94 / 10 70 10 40
MERIDIAN 71 92 71 94 / 40 90 10 50
VICKSBURG 72 93 72 94 / 10 40 10 30
HATTIESBURG 73 93 73 94 / 20 80 10 60
NATCHEZ 72 93 72 94 / 10 60 10 30
GREENVILLE 72 95 72 96 / 20 40 10 20
GREENWOOD 71 94 71 95 / 20 60 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/22
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