941
FXUS64 KJAN 210137 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
837 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
REST OF TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE GULF COAST REGION, KEEPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FEED OF MOIST ADVECTION OF NEAR 2 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWS) ACROSS THE REGION. MCV/ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
IS SITUATED ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE IN THE DELTA, HELPING RAIN
SHOWERS TO FESTER. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT MAINLY FOCUSED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS PRIOR TO CONVECTION
WANING INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
REINVIGORATION OVERNIGHT AT TIMES, BUT MAJORITY OF THAT ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN TAME. WITH WET GROUND AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER,
PATCHES OF FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT BUT DENSE FOG REMAINS
UNLIKELY. SEASONABLY WARM LOWS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, SOME 4F TO
8F ABOVE NORMAL (64F TO 70F). UPDATES ARE ALREADY OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, A WEAK MCV HAS BEEN ANCHORING A GENERAL ZONE OF
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY THAT IS MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG THE
I-55 CORRIDOR, AND THIS SCENARIO SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET. GIVEN A VERY PRECIP EFFICIENT AIRMASS
WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER ~ 2 INCHES AND HIGH/DEEP
RH, THERE ARE POCKETS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP WHERE SMALL AREAS OF CONVERGENCE CAN
PERSIST. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE HAS A SIMILAR SETUP THURSDAY WITH A
WEAK MCV DURING PEAK HEATING IN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS, AND THIS
SETUP COULD ONCE AGAIN FOCUS LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
AFTER A FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL, GROUND CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING, SO WILL GO AHEAD AND MESSAGE FOR A
LIMITED FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN UNUSUALLY LONG DURATION OF WET WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS A LARGE AND PERSISTENT
TROUGH TO RIDGE LONGWAVE PATTERN REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE CONUS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING OUR REGION A STEADY STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES, AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS THAT WILL PROVIDE
LIFT AND HELP INITIATE ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL.
AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND, A GREATER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING
COULD EVOLVE WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING GREATER AREAS OF
LIFT/INSTABILITY INTERACTING WITH THE VERY MOIST AIR, AND WE'LL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE, IT APPEARS THE THERMODYNAMIC/SHEAR PROFILES WILL NOT
BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THE
DEEP MOISTURE AND INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS RIDGE. AS
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED IT'S DIFFICULT TO FIND AN END TO THIS WET
PATTERN IN THE GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
MONTH. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 837 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
ONGOING SHOWERS AND SPORADIC STORM ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AROUND 21/02-04Z THURSDAY. EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT,
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR, WITH MOST RESTRICTIONS FROM
STRATUS/VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO LIFR AT HBG AND PIB AFTER
21/08-13Z THURSDAY. IMPROVEMENTS TO MOSTLY VFR SHOULD OCCUR
AROUND 21/14-16Z, WITH SOME SHOWERS REDEVELOPING BEFORE MIDDAY.
MAJORITY OF RAIN AND STORM REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER
21/19-21Z AND LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 68 84 69 82 / 30 70 80 100
MERIDIAN 68 86 69 82 / 40 50 60 100
VICKSBURG 68 84 69 82 / 30 70 80 90
HATTIESBURG 70 86 70 82 / 30 60 60 100
NATCHEZ 68 85 70 82 / 30 70 80 100
GREENVILLE 66 82 68 81 / 30 50 90 90
GREENWOOD 67 84 68 82 / 40 50 90 100
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/EC/DC
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