295
FXUS64 KJAN 120535 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1235 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIMITED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. HEAT STRESS WILL INCREASE
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY: A DISTURBANCE/MCV LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE
GULF COAST WILL SERVE AS A FORCING MECHANISM FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, WITH SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MS EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME, AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL
SHIFT FROM THE OZARKS INTO THE MID SOUTH TODAY, PROVIDING ANOTHER
FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
WHILE THE BULK OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING. A BELT OF MARGINALLY
STRONGER UPPER FLOW WILL PASS ACROSS NORTH MS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TODAY, AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE DOES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA, THOUGH ANY
THREAT LOOKS TO REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE COASTAL
DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MEANWHILE THE
TRAILING PORTION OF THE MID SOUTH UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY, MEANING SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AGAIN, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESSER THAN
TODAY.
WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, HEAT STRESS WILL BECOME MORE
OF A FACTOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY, IT
APPEARS INCREASED CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR AN
ADVISORY, THOUGH A FEW SPOTS MAY STILL APPROACH OR BRIEFLY REACH
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AT TIMES. WE WILL MAINTAIN A LIMITED HEAT
STRESS THREAT OUTLOOK DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY: UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING
IN A RETURN TO HIGHER HEAT WITH LOWER DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES MORE
TYPICAL OF SUMMER. WITH A MUGGY AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE, HEAT
INDICES MAY BEGIN RISING TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS EACH DAY.
INTERESTINGLY, THE HIGHER HEAT INDICES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE
DRIVEN MORE BY HIGHER TEMPS, AS DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN INTO THE UPPER
60S IN MANY AREAS DURING THE DAY. WE WILL HIGHLIGHT AN ELEVATED
HEAT STRESS THREAT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, AND HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED.
OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, THERE ARE SIGNS THE POSITION OF
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME HEAT STRESS RELIEF.
THERE IS INCREASING GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IN DRIER EASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW WEDGING AROUND THE APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD OUR AREA AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA HAS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF BEING A BENEFICIARY OF THIS REGIME, SO IT MAY
STILL BE QUITE HOT FROM THE MS RIVER WEST. WE'LL KEEP OUR FINGERS
CROSSED FOR ANY POTENTIAL BREAK FROM THIS MUGGY WEATHER. /DL/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
AN ISOLATED -TSRA WL CONTINUE TO AFFECT GLH THROUGH 07Z BEFORE
DISSIPATING. MVFR CIGS WERE ALREADY BEING OBSERVED AT GTR AND LIFR
CONDITIONS AT HBG. MVFR/IFR CIGS WL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP CNTRL AND
EAST WITH LOWEST CONDITIONS IN THE SE THROUGH 13Z. CONDITIONS WL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 15Z. THERE WL BE LESS TSRA TODAY AND MOSTLY
DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. AWAY FROM
TSRA VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AFTER 15Z THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 95 72 96 / 10 20 0 10
MERIDIAN 71 95 71 97 / 10 20 0 10
VICKSBURG 73 95 73 96 / 0 20 0 10
HATTIESBURG 72 94 72 96 / 10 40 0 10
NATCHEZ 73 95 73 96 / 10 20 0 10
GREENVILLE 73 98 74 99 / 0 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 72 97 71 99 / 0 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/22
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