470
FXUS64 KJAN 220950
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
450 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS AT WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN TODAY AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY.
- ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 449 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY: ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
SAGGING THROUGH THE CWA TODAY, HEAT STRESS WILL REMAIN THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. IN
ADDITION, THERE WILL ALSO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE NORTH.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED OUR CWA ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH AND JUST WEST OF THE
BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE DRIER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME CONVECTION UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TO THE NORTH. A DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING UPSTREAM AND DEVELOP CONVECTION THAT
WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES BY THIS EVENING. THE
CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S AND COMBINE WITH
RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110F
IN THE WEST WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE
CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT BUT THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. /22/
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE MID TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS NORTH MS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. AS THIS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHWARDS,
THE SLIGHT UPTICK OF MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP FOCUS
SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY
FOR AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS, PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MS,
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AR, AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA WITH LOCAL
POPS AROUND 20-30%. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO FIZZLE OUT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO QUIET CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING.
REGARDING THE DANGEROUS HEAT FOR SUNDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
A NW-SE ORIENTED THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS
THERMAL GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW 100S ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX READING
VALUES TO PEAK IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE WITH THE GREATEST HEAT
STRESS OVER SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THAT IN
MIND, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY. IF A HEAT
ADVISORY IS INTRODUCED FOR SUNDAY, ORIGINAL THINKING IS TO INCLUDE
ALL OF OUR NORTHEAST LA PARISHES, PORTIONS OF SOUTH MS AND
SOUTHWEST MS, PORTIONS OF WEST MS AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO
THE NEW WORK WEEK. ASIDE FROM THE GRADUAL UPTICKS IN RAIN CHANCES,
THERE ARE STILL NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. ALL
GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO POINT TO DRY ANOMALIES. HEAT
INDEX READINGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE
RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE MID WEEK.
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES/ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE MID WEEK. GIVEN THE CONTINUED VEGETATIVE STRESS, THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BECOME MORE VULNERABLE TO FIRE DANGER SHOULD
WIND/RH THRESHOLDS BE MET. AS OF NOW THE WEATHER PATTERN ISN'T
SUPPORTING THIS, BUT ALL FIRE RELATED INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR
CLOSELY. /CR/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1259 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z WHEN ANOTHER ROUND
OF TSRA WL START AFFECTING THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AND MOVE IN VCTY
OF THE CNTRL TAF SITES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 100 74 98 74 / 0 20 10 30
MERIDIAN 99 73 98 73 / 0 10 10 10
VICKSBURG 100 74 98 74 / 0 10 10 10
HATTIESBURG 98 74 99 74 / 0 0 10 10
NATCHEZ 101 75 99 75 / 0 0 10 10
GREENVILLE 101 74 97 74 / 20 40 10 40
GREENWOOD 99 72 96 72 / 10 40 10 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-
072.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
22/CR/22
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