959
FXUS64 KJAN 031818
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
118 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, WHILE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CANNOT BE RULED OUT SUNDAY.
- COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK (FRIDAY)...
REST OF TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND:
MORNING SYNOPTIC/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFF THE
FL PENINSULA IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE IS
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. THE GULF COAST REGION REMAINS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORMER MENTIONED RIDGE. HIGH MOISTURE
LADEN ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES (AROUND 2 INCHES) AND A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS KEEPING
CONVECTION INITIATION (CI) SLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.
EXPECT MEDIUM TO HIGH RAIN CHANCES TO BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
(40 TO 70 PERCENT) WHILE HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND WIDESPREAD
COVERAGE IN THE PINE BELT (GREATER THAN 70 TO 80 PERCENT
COVERAGE). WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS ACROSS THE AREA, WEAK
SKINNY THERMO PROFILES AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. HREF PMMS INDICATE SOME LOW CHANCE PROBS
(AROUND 10 PERCENT) OF EXCEEDING 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER,
WITH CONFIDENCE ON THE LOW SIDE, NOT ADVERTISING ANYTHING IN THE
HWO GRAPHICS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM TODAY, SOME
5-10F ABOVE (86-91F).
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE IN COVERAGE INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, BUT MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE MOST LIKELY IN THE PINE BELT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOWS WILL SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 8-15F ABOVE (65-
71F). DEEP MOISTURE WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY, WITH STATIONARY
BOUNDARY LOCKED IN ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR TO JUST A TOUCH
SOUTHEAST. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AGAIN,
DIURNAL HEATING WILL BE EVEN LESS THAN TODAY AND SHOULD LIMIT
CONVECTION INTENSITY AND RAINFALL TOTALS OVERALL. THERE ARE SOME
HREF/REFS LOW CHANCE PROBS (AROUND 10 PERCENT) OF 24 HOUR RAINFALL
TOTALS EXCEEDING 3 INCHES IN THE HIGHWAY 98 TO INTERSTATE 59
CORRIDORS. /DC/
NEXT WEEK: AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE AREA MONDAY,
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END AS DRY AIR PUSHES IN ITS WAKE. 50S
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER WILL ALLOW LOWS TO COOL INTO THE MIDDLE 50S
IN THE NORTH AND LOW 60S IN THE SOUTH. THERE IS A BIT OF CROSSOVER
MONDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST, SO FOG/LOW STRATUS IS A
POSSIBILITY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE DRY, REINFORCED BY NW FLOW IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. RAIN CHANCES RETURN NEXT WEEKEND AS A
SHORTWAVE OUT OF TEXAS/WESTERN GULF WILL RETURN THE MOIST AIRMASS
WITH 2+ INCH PWAT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME FLOW WITH THIS SHORTWAVE,
LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER MOIST ADIABATIC, THUS INSUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SUPPORT HOWEVER TO NECESSITATE
MONITORING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS WE GET CLOSER. /SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVER MOST SITES, BUT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EXPECT INCREASING
CHANCES OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS MAINLY AT
HBG/PIB AND POSSIBLY MEI THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE REMAINING SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES AFTER 08-09Z./15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 89 70 81 66 / 40 40 80 10
MERIDIAN 88 69 79 65 / 50 60 80 30
VICKSBURG 89 68 81 63 / 50 50 70 10
HATTIESBURG 86 70 80 67 / 80 70 90 40
NATCHEZ 89 69 82 66 / 50 50 80 10
GREENVILLE 87 67 82 61 / 10 30 50 0
GREENWOOD 89 67 82 61 / 20 40 60 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/15
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