331
FXUS64 KJAN 100305
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1005 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2022
UPDATE
UPDATED FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.
DISCUSSION
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING, BUT
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER, GIVEN OUR
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE, SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
DROP SOUTH INTO THE DELTA ONCE AGAIN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. ANOTHER
AFTERNOON TOMORROW OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
LOOK ON TAP. /28/
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER SPINNING OVER THE MID-SOUTH
REGION TODAY HAS EXCITED SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS - MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT HIGH (PW OVER
INCHES) AND INSTABILITY HIGH (SBCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG) ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA, THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAP INTO ROBUST
FUEL FOR GROWTH AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. IN A FEW PLACES, THE RAIN
HAS ALREADY QUICKLY ADDED UP TO A FEW INCHES TODAY. THERE IS A
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOWER- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE LOW,
FOCUSED ALONG AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS
THE LA/AR BORDER AND INTO NORTHWEST MS. STORMS ALONG THIS AXIS
WILL POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT UNTIL OUTFLOW GRADUALLY
PUSHES THE AXIS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE THREAT FOR
SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH TOMORROW, A LIMITED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT AREA IS EXTENDED THROUGH THAT TIME IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TEXT AND GRAPHICS. QUICK 2-4 INCH RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
LIKELY, BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. /NF/
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY:
WEDGED IN BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURES, AND WITH STRONG RIDGING TO
OUR WEST, A TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGH PRESSURES WILL START TO
BREAKDOWN SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO TAKE
SHAPE ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, MID AND SURFACE LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT WON'T
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MS VALLEY REGION JUST YET. HOWEVER WITH
THE FRONT BEING WITHIN PROXIMITY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
PLENTIFUL AS PWS WILL RANGE FROM 1.5-2+ INCHES THROUGH OUT THE
PERIOD. WITH THE EXPECTED DIURNAL CONVECTION, WEAK MID AND UPPER
LEVEL JET FLOW, AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ANY DEVELOPING
STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRAIN OVER SOME AREAS, MEANING
SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I-20. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR THESE DAYS PENDING HOW MUCH
RAINFALL WE SEE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED FRONT
WILL ENTER INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
COOLER DEWPOINTS BEHIND IT. WHILE THERE WILL BE DIURNAL RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, COOLER DEWPOINTS WILL RELIEVE
US FROM THIS TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS WHICH WILL DECREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY-SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
WITH THE INCREASED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MORE REGULATED AS CLOUD COVER INCREASE. THERE IS ALWAYS THE
POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUD COVER UNDER ACHIEVES AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
THE REGION MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 BUT FOR NOW, HEAT
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT STRESS CRITERIA.
AS WE ENTER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST WILL
BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF ONTO THE ATLANTIC SHORE AND RIDING WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK IN. AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD, TEMPERATURES WILL START
TO WARM BACK INTO THE 90S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT STRESS
RETURNING./JNE/
AVIATION
00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT ARE WINDING DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION. STILL COULD BRING SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS IN
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR THOUGH SOME
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL OCCUR
TOMORROW, WHICH WILL BRING MVFR CEILING AND VIS RESTRICTIONS ONCE
AGAIN. /28/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 87 71 85 / 33 80 39 73
MERIDIAN 72 89 71 88 / 30 79 32 71
VICKSBURG 72 86 71 85 / 40 75 37 60
HATTIESBURG 73 87 72 88 / 30 85 27 79
NATCHEZ 72 86 71 85 / 34 77 31 70
GREENVILLE 72 85 71 86 / 47 76 50 46
GREENWOOD 73 86 71 88 / 33 72 48 54
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
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