251
FXUS64 KJAN 161736 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1136 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY A COLDER AIRMASS.
- PERIODS OF COLD WEATHER WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
THE REGION IS OFF TO A CLEAR AND COLD START THIS MORNING UNDER THE
LINGERING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER, AN ORGANIZING COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM THE OZARKS DOWN TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL
BEGIN PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST AR AND NORTHWEST MS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS WILL BREAK OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT IT WILL MAKE SOME
HEADWAY INTO THE AREA BEFORE THAT OCCURS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET, SO MUCH OF OUR MS DELTA/SOUTHEAST AR/NORTHEAST LA WILL
MISS OUT ON THE RAIN ALTOGETHER WITH THIS SYSTEM. AREAS THAT DO
RECEIVE RAIN WILL SEE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH IN MOST AREAS, BUT
HREF SUGGESTS SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS UP TO A HALF INCH ARE
POSSIBLE. ALL IN ALL, NO BIG CHANGES ARE PLANNED TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE STRONGLY INFLUENCED BY A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN THAT FEATURES A COLD EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN, A SERIES OF POLAR
STREAM TROUGHS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN A
FEW COLD AIR EVENTS AND PERHAPS A WINTER WEATHER THREAT OR TWO AS
DESCRIBED BELOW.
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT: UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, MILD CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED TODAY. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
ASCENT FOR LINE OF SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFTER
SUNSET ROUGHLY ALONG THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BRING A SWATH OF LIGHT RAINFALL (GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN
INCH) FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THEN COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW.
THIS WEEKEND: AFTER AN UNCERTAIN STRETCH IN THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT SNOWFALL EVENT OVER SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, THERE IS NOW GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE
NWP/AI MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FRONTAL WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP SWATH IN THE NORTHERN TO BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAIN/SNOW TO MISS OUR AREA, AND ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL AT
MOST COULD AFFECT THE I-59 CORRIDOR WITH THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE,
THE MAIN STORY WILL BE VERY CHILL CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
CONTINUED COLD WEATHER AS WE GO THROUGH MID WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT
THE COLD TEMPERATURES REACH COLD ADVISORY THRESHOLDS IS STILL
UNCERTAIN, BUT AS OF NOW, DANGEROUS LEVELS OF COLD ARE NOT BE
EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. LATER NEXT WEEK, WE SHOULD
SEE AT LEAST A BRIEF STRETCH OF WARMER AND WETTER CONDITIONS.
/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF
PERIOD, THOUGH BRIEF CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS TO CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS OCCUR WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, S-SW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL
SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY AGAIN DURING THE DAYTIME
SATURDAY. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 68 37 51 24 / 10 70 0 0
MERIDIAN 63 37 51 24 / 0 80 10 0
VICKSBURG 68 35 51 24 / 10 40 0 0
HATTIESBURG 65 43 56 30 / 0 70 10 10
NATCHEZ 71 38 53 26 / 0 50 10 0
GREENVILLE 63 33 46 23 / 10 20 0 0
GREENWOOD 64 33 48 21 / 20 40 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/EC
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