276
FXUS64 KJAN 080251 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
951 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING HEAT STRESS LATER THIS
WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
REST OF TONIGHT...
A QUIET EVENING IS MOSTLY ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION. EVENING UPPER
AIR/RAP ANALYSIS AND GOES EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ARKLATEX, WHICH HAS SPARKED THE
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE
AROUND 2 INCHES PERSISTS IN REGIONAL SATELLITE AND LOCAL ANALYSIS
(GOES EAST TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND EVENING UPPER AIR
SOUNDING ANALYSIS). THIS SPARKED SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ACROSS THE REGION THAT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST, THE ASCENT WILL
WEAKEN AND DIURNAL ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE. OTHERWISE, SEASONABLY
WARM LOWS ARE ON TAP, SOME 8F TO 10F ABOVE NORMAL (73F TO 76F).
UPDATES WERE SHIPPED OUT EARLIER. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, ALONG WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS,
WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS EVENING.
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME LESSENING IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT, SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, AS
A SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH REGION. SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE PONDING OF
WATER IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, ESPECIALLY WHERE
CONVECTION TRAINS ACROSS THE SAME LOCATIONS.
THIS DEEPLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
WEEK. THE BULK OF THE RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIT THE CWA WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE, WITH RIDGING INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE AIRMASS NOW RESIDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA, AN
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER OR STORM WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON. IT'LL ALSO BE DURING THIS TIME WHERE THE CONCERN FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL BE ON THE RISE. BY THE TIME TUESDAY ROLLS
AROUND, AND CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE
90S AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE 70S, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
CURRENTLY LOOK TO REACH AND EVENTUALLY SURPASS THE CENTURY MARK. IF
THE TREND CONTINUES, AT A MINIMUM, A "LIMITED THREAT" FOR SAID
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS COULD BECOME NECESSARY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY
FOR PORTIONS OF, IF NOT ALL OF, THE FORECAST AREA, AND POTENTIALLY
BE NEEDED FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. /19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 951 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR LOW STRATUS
(AS LOW AS LIFR AT MEI, HBG AND PIB) AND SOME PATCHY FOG/BR AT
THOSE SITES THAT COULD OBSERVE LIFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES. CEILINGS
WILL IMPROVE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AREAWIDE (AFTER 08/15-17Z),
WITH EASTERN AND SOUTHERNMOST TAF SITES OF GTR, MEI, HBG AND PIB
ON THE LATER SIDE (AFTER 08/18Z MONDAY). SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AT TIMES. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT, NEAR GTR AFTER 08/19-23Z
MONDAY. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 88 72 92 / 10 20 10 0
MERIDIAN 73 86 71 92 / 40 30 20 0
VICKSBURG 76 88 73 92 / 10 20 10 0
HATTIESBURG 73 87 70 91 / 20 20 20 10
NATCHEZ 75 89 73 93 / 10 10 10 0
GREENVILLE 75 90 74 92 / 20 20 0 0
GREENWOOD 75 90 74 92 / 30 10 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/19
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