655
FXUS64 KJAN 301140 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
540 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTH FOR WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES NEAR 20F.
- TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS COLD.
- WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT YEAR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: COLDER THAN NORMAL AND DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1035MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THIS HIGH WAS STILL
PRODUCING GUSTS 15-20MPH ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE 20S, RESULTING WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
20F. THUS, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9
AM. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS ACROSS OUR DELTA REGION THAT WILL SWING ACROSS OUR CWA
TODAY AND HELP SHIFT THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE TEXAS COAST WHERE IT
WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT RESULTING IN A LIGHTER WIND ACROSS OUR CWA. THE
CONTINUED CAA TODAY WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL AND IN
THE 40S. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S BUT WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BE AS COLD
AND NO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. /22/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY: THE FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE
OVERALL FORECAST. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA
HEADING INTO NEW YEARS EVE (WEDNESDAY) BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AREAWIDE.
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SFC RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. THIS WILL HELP KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET AND DRY THROUGH
THE MID WEEK. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECASTED HEADING INTO NEW
YEARS DAY (THURSDAY) WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS PEAKING INTO THE UPPER 30S
BY MIDNIGHT.
A QUICK LITTLE NOTE REGARDING FIRE WX CONCERNS FOR THURSDAY. RHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 35-40% ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WELL ABOVE ANY
NOTABLE THRESHOLD AND WIND SPEEDS WILL BE TOO LOW. NEVERTHELESS, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THURSDAY,
GIVEN THAT WE HAVEN'T HAD ANY DECENT RAIN IN A WHILE. SKY CONDITIONS
FOR THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH QUIET CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL PEAK
INTO THE 60S. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST
BY THURSDAY EVENING/THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO
UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO A FEW SHOWERS RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THAT SYSTEM, BUT THE
CURRENT TIMING DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR ANY SEVERE THREAT. WITH THAT
IN MIND, A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. LONG TERM GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO SHOWS
THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY
BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES TO FINISH OFF THE WEEKEND. QUIET
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST HEADING INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FORECAST LOOKING AHEAD INTO TUESDAY
WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE. /CR/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 44 27 57 35 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 46 25 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 44 27 58 35 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 49 27 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 47 27 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 41 29 55 36 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 42 27 55 34 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ060>066-
072>074.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LAZ026.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/22
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