791
FXUS64 KJAN 131810
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
110 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIMITED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TODAY.
- DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION DUE
TO PROLONGED DRY WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN IMPACTS DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD WILL COME TUESDAY IN THE FORM OF SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
DENSE FOG ACROSS NAMELY SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI EARLY IN THE MORNING
AND SOME CONTINUED "LIMITED" FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THURSDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH, AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ADVERTISED
TO PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. OTHERWISE, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA.
THIS, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS, REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE DEEP SOUTH FROM THE EAST. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE OVERALL QUIET
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
ON TUESDAY, WITH INCREASED MOISTURE, MILD CONDITIONS, AND LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS EARLY IN THE MORNING, SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN
DISSIPATING AFTER SUNRISE. COME LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE DRY
FUELS FROM THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. AFTERNOON
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN MIX INTO THE 35-45%
RANGE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THEY'LL
HOVER MORE IN THE 35-40% RANGE. DESPITE THE INCREASED HUMIDITY
LEVELS AND GREENING VEGETATION, THIS "LIMITED" FIRE DANGER THREAT
FOR TUESDAY WILL AGAIN PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY THE AFOREMENTIONED
BREEZY WINDS AND VERY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS. JUST THE COMBINATION OF
THESE TWO COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASE IN WILD FIRES ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN MONITORED OPEN BURNING TO POTENTIALLY GET
OUT OF HAND.
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY, A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH REGION COULD SPARK SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
MAINLY THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME, WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE IN THE EARLY EVENING AS DAY TIME HEATING WANES.
FINALLY, A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CURRENTLY
EXISTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS IS AS A RESULT OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAT'S
ADVERTISED TO PUSH A COLD FRONT EAST INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WHILE ANY RAIN CHANCES
ARE MUCH APPRECIATED AND WELCOMED, UNFORTUNATELY THIS FRONT WILL BE
IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING AS FORCING LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
THIS LOOKS TO KEEP THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THEREFORE, THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS BY NO MEANS LOOKING TO BE A
WASHOUT. HOWEVER, SOME RELIEF FROM THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH AND
HUMID CONDITIONS IS BEING ADVERTISED FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY. /19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT MON APR 13 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS NEAR 10-15 KTS WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS. STRATUS CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO ERODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. CLEARING
WILL BE BRIEF AS STRATUS CLOUDS RETURNS AND POTENTIAL FOG DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR FLIGHT
CONDITION POSSIBLE WHERE FOG DEVELOP, AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 62 86 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 58 85 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 63 87 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 60 86 59 87 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 63 86 62 86 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 66 87 65 86 / 10 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 65 87 63 86 / 10 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/SW
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