185
FXUS64 KJAN 301225 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
725 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- INCREASING HEAT STRESS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX READINGS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
NEAR TERM: WE REMAIN IN A SEASONABLY WARM AND VERY MUGGY REGIME.
PATCHY FOG AND A FEW AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WERE ONGOING EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED FROM YESTERDAY
EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND EAST MS. REMARKABLY, THE SAME MCV/MESOLOW
THAT HAS HELPED DRIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER OUR AREA THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER WESTERN
MIDDLE TN. ALONG WITH DIURNAL HEATING, THIS FEATURE MAY CONTINUE
TO HELP DRIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH
SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING, CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS COVERAGE WILL BE LESS
THAN IN RECENT DAYS BUT STILL GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT CHANCE
POPS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: AS UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO BUILD
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR REGION DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS TIME OF YEAR, THAT REGIME OFTEN RESULTS IN A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN, WHERE ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MAY TRACK
INTO THE AREA IN ADDITIONAL TO ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS IN THE PERSISTING MOIST AIRMASS. WHILE DEEP SHEAR MAY BE
ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS, STRONG SUMMERLIKE
INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE
WITH A PRIMARY THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. NO SPECIFIC SEVERE
STORM OUTLOOKS ARE IN PLACE AT THIS TIME, AS THE MESOSCALE NATURE
OF THESE SYSTEMS MAKES TIMING AND OTHER SPECIFICS DIFFICULT TO
ANTICIPATE MUCH MORE THAN A DAY AHEAD OF TIME. HOWEVER, BE AWARE
THAT A SEVERE THREAT MAY ULTIMATELY BE ADDED DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. HEAVY RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE, WITH A LOCALIZED
FLOODING RISK ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS MORE
SATURATED RECENTLY.
OUTSIDE OF ANY AREAS OF RAIN, IT WILL BE INCREASINGLY HOT BUT
STILL HUMID ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEAT INDICES COULD TOP
THE TRIPLE DIGITS IN SOME AREAS FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.
MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK: THE DEEPENING EAST COAST TROUGH WILL
ULTIMATELY NUDGE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME, WITH SURFACE RIDGING ENCROACHING
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE HUMIDITY AND RAIN
CHANCES WHILE MODERATING TEMPS ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA
(HIGHER CONFIDENCE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST) WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED, THOUGH, AS A MORE HUMID
AIRMASS IS SET TO RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND. /DL/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 724 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS TO START THE PERIOD IN EASTERN MISSISSIPPI.
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES BY 15Z-18Z TODAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA OR TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS OF THUNDER AT ANY SITE WAS TOO LOW TO
MENTION AT THIS TIME. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 88 72 91 72 / 30 10 50 10
MERIDIAN 87 71 90 71 / 50 10 50 10
VICKSBURG 89 73 91 73 / 20 20 40 10
HATTIESBURG 89 72 91 72 / 30 20 40 20
NATCHEZ 90 73 92 73 / 30 20 30 10
GREENVILLE 89 72 90 73 / 20 10 50 20
GREENWOOD 88 72 90 72 / 30 0 50 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/NF
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