484
FXUS64 KJAN 280802
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
300 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK (TODAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
TODAY INTO TONIGHT: EARLY MORNING UPPER AIR/RAP AND GOES EAST
WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATE QUASI-OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN, WITH
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING OUT OF THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES,
SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS AND GULF COAST TO WELL SOUTHWARD INTO
THE GULF. THIS IS KEEPING MOST OF THE ASCENT AND CONVECTION AT BAY
OFFSHORE BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. THIS PERTURBED
FLOW/VORTICITY WILL DRIVE INCREASED MOIST ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE
(1.75 TO 2.1 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER) INTO THE SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
MORNING. THERE IS CONTINUED INDICATIONS OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
VORTEX (MCV) THAT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ARKLATEX
REGION, POTENTIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THIS WILL DRIVE A
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET, ASCENT AND CONVERGENCE ON A MESOSCALE
LEVEL. THIS WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT AREAS BUT OUR
SOUTHWEST AREAS HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ENHANCED RAINFALL
RATES DUE TO THIS FEATURE. LIGHT BACKBUILDING FLOW AND SOME
ENHANCED CLOUD BEARING FLOW (UP TO 20KTS) WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL
TOTALS IN THESE AREAS. BASED ON THAT, WE DECIDED TO MAKE SOME
LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HWO GRAPHICS TO HONE IN TO A MORE REFINED
ZONE OF POTENTIAL HIGHER RAINFALL RATES, TOTALS AND FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS. THIS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE DELTA COUNTIES OF WEST,
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN MS, SOUTHEAST AR AND NORTHEAST LA.
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) SUPPORT THIS IDEA. THIS HWO
GRAPHIC WILL NOW BE REFINED TO JUST THURSDAY AND WILL BE ON A
DAY-TO-DAY BASIS BUT THE CURRENT ONE WILL NOT INCLUDE FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE GENERALLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE (45
TO 65 PERCENT). HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE (MID 80S), WITH
SEASONABLY WARM LOWS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S). HREF PROBABILITY MATCH MEAN (PMMS) INDICATE ANOTHER
ROUND OF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBS (10 PERCENT) FOR RECEIVING IN EXCESS
OF 3 INCHES, WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS IN THE HREF MAXIMUMS. IN
ADDITION, THERE ARE SOME HREF DENSE FOG PROBS BOTH THIS MORNING
AND AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD ANY
MENTION IN THE HWO BUT ONLY IN THE WEATHER GRIDS AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY: AS UPPER LOW OVER TX/OK PANHANDLE
LIFTS NORTH, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED BUT LIGHTER
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A LONGWAVE QUASI-
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN INTO LATE WEEK (UPPER LOW CAUGHT OVER THE
PACIFIC STATES AND DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST
STATES INTO EASTERN CANADA). HOWEVER, THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
DOESN'T LOOK AS ESTABLISHED AS A TYPICAL OMEGA BLOCK, WITH STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO THE FL PENINSULA. ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE QUASI-OMEGA BLOCK THE PERTURBED
ENERGY/VORT MAX WILL LIFT NORTHWARD BUT SOME OF THE TAIL END OF
THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP LIGHT RETURN FLOW, DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT
BACKBUILDING FLOW INTO FRIDAY. RAIN COVERAGE WILL REMAIN HIGH
FRIDAY (45 TO 80 PERCENT DAILY) AND BECOMING FOCUSED EAST OF MS
RIVER CORRIDOR FRIDAY.
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS AND TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH TO MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WEEKEND, SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND
WESTERLY FLOW WILL LOCK IN, LEADING TO LESS MOIST GULF INFLUENCE
AND MORE SCATTERED RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE (35 TO 65 PERCENT
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY). HIGHS REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL THIS WEEKEND
(LOW TO UPPER 80S) WHILE GENERALLY SEASONABLY WARM LOWS (UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S). LONGER RANGE PATTERN CONSISTS OF SURFACE HIGH DIVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUAL DRYING FRONT FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER TRENDS HAVE SLOWED, WITH MOST RELIEF IN RAIN COVERAGE
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED NEXT MONDAY TO SHIFTING SOUTHWARD AND ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED NEXT TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY (20 TO 40 PERCENT).
CONTINUED SEASONABLE COOL HIGHS AND LESS SEASONABLY WARM LOWS WILL
BE THE NORM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /DC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION AGAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, GRADUALLY IMPROVING
TO VFR AGAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
MOSTLY CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF SHRA
AND TS TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY RESULT IN BRIEF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 70 84 70 / 50 30 60 30
MERIDIAN 87 70 85 69 / 50 30 60 40
VICKSBURG 84 70 85 70 / 70 40 60 30
HATTIESBURG 85 70 85 70 / 70 20 70 30
NATCHEZ 84 70 86 71 / 60 30 40 10
GREENVILLE 84 70 84 70 / 70 40 50 40
GREENWOOD 86 70 84 70 / 60 50 70 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/DL
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