553
FXUS64 KJAN 152023
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
223 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF COLD WEATHER WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT WEEK.
- MONITORING TRENDS FOR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
REST OF TODAY...
A QUIET AND CHILLY AFTERNOON IS ON TAP ACROSS THE REGION.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SURFACE COLD ADVECTION HAS LOCKED IN DRY
AIR AND SUNNY SKIES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS
BUT OVERALL THIS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT. MIXING WILL BE EFFICIENT
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLY COLD, SOME 8F TO 12F BELOW (42F TO 50F). UPDATES WERE
SHIPPED OUT EARLIER. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST THU JAN 15 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK (WEDNESDAY)...
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: LONGWAVE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER THE AREA
TODAY IS PROGGED TO SWING EASTWARD THIS EVENING, BRINGING SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVER TOP OF THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL
SWITCH OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SETUP, WHILE STEADY TO A TOUCH
MILDER LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG AND WEST OF MS RIVER CORRIDOR. LOWS
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL IN SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT, SOME 4F TO 8F
BELOW (25F TO 34F) WHILE SEASONABLE TO THE WEST. AS THERMAL TROUGH
BUILDS EAST FRIDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW FAVORS
SEASONABLE WARMTH/MILD HIGH TEMPERATURES, SOME 5F TO 10F ABOVE
(55F TO 70F). A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER FRONT, MOIST CONVERGENCE AND COLDER AIR SOUTHWARD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR FRIDAY EVENING AND SPREAD
SOUTHEAST THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE DOESN'T LOOK TO BE
ENOUGH LINGERING PRECIP TO OVERLAP WITH ANY COLD ADVECTION FRIDAY
NIGHT, SO THE PRECIP TYPE SHOULD STAY ALL RAIN.
THIS WEEKEND: WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR DEEPLY AMPLIFIED
SYNOPTICS AND COLD, TRENDS ARE MOVING IN THE NEGATIVE DIRECTION
FOR POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER. AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY, POLAR
STREAM ENERGY WILL BE DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST STATES, WITH
CRITICAL SPOKE OF JET ENERGY/VORTICITY MOVING INTO THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, LEADING TO
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING OF MOISTURE OVER
THE COLDER AIR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO NIGHT. THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE SEASONABLY COOL BUT ANY WINTER WEATHER, ALBEIT TRENDING MORE
MINOR, WOULD BE INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THE SYNOPTICS HAVE COME
MORE IN ALIGNMENT, WITH THE AMPLITUDE SIMILAR IN THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN GUIDANCE AND BACKING IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER, THE
SPOKE OF ENERGY/POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA) STRONG OVER
SOUTHERN TX TO THE ARKLATEX, LEADING TO POTENTIAL FASTER
EAST-SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION, AND LESS RESIDENCE TIME OF MOISTURE
ADVECTION OVERRUNNING COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY EVENING. RECENT
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODEL AND ENSEMBLE SUITES, INCLUDING RRFS,
BLENDED GUIDANCE AND OTHERS, HAVE TRENDED NEGATIVELY FOR MUCH IN
THE WAY, IF ANY, OF LIGHT PRECIP AND RESULTANT THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. EARLIER ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
PROBABILISTIC DATA THIS MORNING WERE MUCH DRIER, WITH
PROBABILITIES TO EXCEED ONE INCH NEAR THE HIGHWAY 84 TO
INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDORS TO SOUTHEAST AND RECENT RUNS TO EXCEED
A HALF INCH EVEN MORE CONFINED IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. WITH
THAT BEING SAID, WE WILL KEEP SOME SORT OF MESSAGING TO OUTLINE
LOWERING PROBABILITIES OF POTENTIAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. COMBINED WITH COLD TEMPERATURES, THIS COULD
CORRELATE TO VERY MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. HOWEVER, TRENDS IN GLOBAL
AND ENSEMBLE SUITES CONTINUE TO TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS. REGARDLESS, WE
CONTINUE TO MESSAGE SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND
ACCUMULATIONS IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, WITH SNOW FLURRIES IN THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THESE AREAS FURTHER NORTH COULD BE MORE
MOISTURE STARVED AND HAVE A TOUGH TIME SQUEEZING OUT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF FLURRIES, BUT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT. THIS WILL BE
QUITE PROGRESSIVE AND ANY PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OUT QUICKLY
AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY. /DC/
RELEVANT PORTION OF PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION IS BELOW:
LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK: FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GREATER NOW
FOR CONTINUED COLD WEATHER AS WE GO INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT AS OF NOW,
WE ARE NOT SEEING DANGEROUS LEVELS OF COLD MATERIALIZE IN THE
EXPLICIT FORECAST. WE'LL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR FOR PERHAPS ANOTHER
SNEAKY SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT COULD INTERACT WITH THE COLD AIR TO
BRING ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER THREATS, BUT THERE ARE NO SPECIFIC
INDICATIONS AS OF NOW.
AMPLIFIED PATTERN BECOMES MORE ZONAL INTO MID WEEK, WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BEFORE RAIN CHANCES MOVE BACK INTO LATE
WEEK, JUST AFTER THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. /DC/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST THU JAN 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SOME PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) ARE POSSIBLE AT
GLH AND GWO AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT GTR, JAN AND HKS BUT
LOWERED CONFIDENCE PRECLUDES MENTION IN 18Z TAF CYCLE. OTHERWISE,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY (SUSTAINED UP TO
15MPH AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25MPH) AFTER 16/15Z FRIDAY. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 31 64 37 51 / 0 0 30 0
MERIDIAN 27 62 36 52 / 0 0 50 10
VICKSBURG 33 65 35 50 / 0 0 20 0
HATTIESBURG 31 67 42 57 / 0 0 50 10
NATCHEZ 34 68 37 52 / 0 0 30 0
GREENVILLE 33 59 34 45 / 0 0 10 0
GREENWOOD 31 61 33 47 / 0 0 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/EC
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