010
FXUS64 KJAN 310002 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
602 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TONIGHT WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
- WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT YEAR.
- MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN ON FRIDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
REST OF TONIGHT...
STRONG SURFACE HIGH ANALYZED TO THE WEST IN THE ARKLATEX TO
NORTHERN GULF COAST IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. UPPER AIR/WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATE RIDGING
OVER THE CA TO BAJA COASTLINE WHILE MEAN NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS AND
SURFACE RIDGING THROUGH MAIN FOCUS. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST, KEEPING LIGHT GRADIENT SURFACE WINDS AROUND 5MPH AT
MOST. BLENDED GUIDANCE FOR SEASONABLY COOL LOWS LOOK ON TRACK,
SEASONABLY COOL SOME 5-12F BELOW (24-31F). LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP
WIND CHILLS NEAR FORECAST LOWS, SO NO ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES ARE NEEDED. WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE LIKELY AROUND
DAYBREAK FOR NEW YEAR'S EVE. FORECAST UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 109 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
TONIGHT: STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT WILL HELP
TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WITH LIGHT WINDS, TEMPS WILL FEEL LIKE THE FORECAST TEMP
VALUES AND NO ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY PRODUCTS ARE
EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY: MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE DEEP SOUTH REMAINS
ON THE WEST SIDE OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. SFC HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WILL
STRETCH NORTHWARD ALLOWING FOR BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE
NEW YEAR HOLIDAY. TEMPS WILL MODERATE AS A RESULT WITH HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY AND 60S ON THURSDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL
FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND BUT STILL REMAIN CHILLY FOR NEW YEARS EVE
WITH MIDNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 35-40 DEGREE RANGE TO RING IN THE NEW
YEAR. CLOUD COVER WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST BY
THURSDAY EVENING/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S/LOW 50S. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FIRE WX CONDITIONS
WED/THUR AS AFTERNOON RHS DROP TO 30-40 PERCENT BOTH AFTERNOONS.
WINDS WILL NOT BE ELEVATED EITHER DAY SO NOT EXPECTING TO REACH
WARNING CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. /HUN/
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO A FEW SHOWERS RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THAT
SYSTEM, BUT THE CURRENT TIMING DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR ANY SEVERE
THREAT. WITH THAT IN MIND, A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LONG TERM GUIDANCE FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND THE EURO SHOWS THE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OUT OF OUR
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES TO FINISH
OFF THE WEEKEND. QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST HEADING INTO THE
NEW WORK WEEK. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR FORECAST
LOOKING AHEAD INTO TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PEAKING INTO THE 60S
AREAWIDE. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHWESTERLY INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
GENERALLY UNDER 10MPH. FROST WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT BUT LIFTING
JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 27 57 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 25 56 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 28 58 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 27 60 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 27 59 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 30 55 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 27 55 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/HUN/CR
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