056
FXUS64 KJAN 282053
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
253 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
A FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL REGION TO SAG FURTHER
SOUTH INTO OUR RESPECTED AREA THIS EVENING. AS THIS FRONTS PUSHES
FURTHER SOUTH, RAIN AND POSSIBLE STORM CHANCES WILL START TO
INCREASE. A LINE OF CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENTERTAIN
THE ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE MS DELTA AND EXTREME
NORTH OF OUR CWA. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES, THE FRONT WILL BECOME
MORE PARALLEL TO THE SHEAR VECTORS, MEANING IT WILL BE HARD FOR
STORMS COMING ACROSS TO BECOME ROBUST FURTHER SOUTH KEEPING THE
POSSIBLE SEVERE THREAT TO THE NORTH. THE TIMEFRAME FOR EXPECTING
STORMS ACROSS THE NW WILL MAINLY START AROUND MIDNIGHT UNTIL ABOUT
3AM. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND
ALTHOUGH THE TORNADO THREAT IS VERY LOW, A QUICK SPIN UP ACROSS THE
NW IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SINCE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW, WILL CONTINUE WITH THE 'MARGINAL RISK' ACROSS THE
HWY 82 CORRIDOR AND PARTS OF THE EXTREME NW PARTS OF THE REGION.
ONTOP OF THE MARGINAL RISK FOR STORMS, THERE IS A LIMITED AND
ELEVATED THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING. SOILS/GROUNDS BECAME VERY
SATURATED FROM THE WINTER STORMS AND WITH THE RAIN WE GOT THIS PASS
THURSDAY-FRIDAY, THE GROUND JUST REMAINED AND BECAME EVEN MORE
MOIST. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-20 AND WITH 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING ALREADY
FALLEN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS, THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS WILL INCREASE
THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
LIMITED AND ELEVATED IN THE HWO FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR EXTREME NW
COUNTIES FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
AS FOR MONDAY, BY THE AFTERNOON THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED FRONT WILL
HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION BUT RAINFALL WILL STILL BE IN PLAY.
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ARISE AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES./JNE/
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK...
THE AXIS OF RAIN WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH BY MONDAY NIGHT AND BE
CENTERED MORE ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS OVER
THE REGION. WITH THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW,
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY,
THIS WILL HELP INDUCE A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE GULF, BUT IT
APPEARS THAT THE BETTER CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS
CLOSER TO THE COAST AND SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NEVERTHELESS,
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
AS THE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS, RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. MODELS SUGGEST SOME INFLUENCE FROM ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL WILL DIVE SOUTH TOWARD OUR REGION LATER IN THE WEEK,
TOWARD THE WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN WITH THIS BUT THERE
REMAINS DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH OR IF THIS WILL IMPACT OUR
REGION. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR DURING
THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FORECAST COMPARED TO THE SPRING/SUMMER
TYPE PATTERN WE HAVE BEEN IN OVER THE LAST WEEK. /28/
AVIATION
18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY
BUT ONCE WE GET INTO THE 19Z(1-2PM) VISIBILITY COULD DROP EVEN
MORE FOR SITES AROUND THE MS DELTA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR MOST
NORTHERN SITES (GLH/GWO/GTR) DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A FRONT
BEGINS TO PUSH FURTHER SOUTH. VCSH AND -RA WILL PREVAIL AT ALL
SITES TONIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE OUT OF THE W/SW FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 61 61 45 53 / 77 89 81 96
MERIDIAN 62 63 44 55 / 47 85 68 97
VICKSBURG 57 57 45 52 / 93 92 86 92
HATTIESBURG 65 72 49 60 / 27 76 68 94
NATCHEZ 62 62 47 56 / 63 83 85 91
GREENVILLE 50 50 43 47 / 98 70 62 88
GREENWOOD 52 54 43 49 / 97 82 58 90
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-025>030-
034>036-040-041.
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009.
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.
JNE/28
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