099
FXUS64 KJAN 051138 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
638 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT STRESS WILL INCREASE IN THE WEST WEDNESDAY, THEN WORSEN
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (TUESDAY)...
TODAY (WEDNESDAY): RAP/WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LOW
IS SITUATED NORTHERN GA AND CORNER OF THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING
AND 595DM MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO
CONTINUED NORTHERLY DRY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS
LOCKS IN PWS GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH (1.1 TO 1.3 INCHES) AND
LOW HUMIDITY ALOFT (I.E. 700-300MB LAYER HUMIDITY IN THE LOW TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS) AND ANOTHER DAY OF EFFICIENT MIXING. THIS LEADS
TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES: HIGHS BECOMING SEASONABLY WARM INTO
WEDNESDAY (93F TO 97F) AND SEASONABLE LOWS (68F TO 71F THIS
MORNING TO 70F TO 74F WEDNESDAY NIGHT). HEAT INDICES WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE TODAY IN SOUTHWESTERN AREAS (HEAT INDICES IN
THE 102F TO 105F RANGE THIS AFTERNOON). INHERITED HWO GRAPHIC FOR
LIMITED HEAT IN SOUTHWEST TODAY SEEMS REASONABLE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A STRAY SHOWER IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWEST MS AND NORTHEAST LA
WHERE DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHER AND DIURNALLY INDUCED
CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP.
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY):
AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS THE GRIP OVER THE SOUTHEAST BEGINNING
TOMORROW, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE (LOW AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR LESS EFFICIENT
MIXING, WARMTH/MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASING HEAT STRESS LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIXING ON THURSDAY WILL BE INCREASED IN
CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MS WHERE LOW HUMIDITY ALOFT WILL RESIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM (HIGHS IN THE 94F TO 97F
RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 72F TO 76F RANGE). THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN
MORE OF A LARGE SCALE WEAKNESS IN THE FLOW BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
HELP MODERATE IN HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE WEEKEND (72F TO
76F) AND INCREASING HEAT STRESS CONCERNS. WITH INHERITED HWO
GRAPHIC OF LOWER THREAT TODAY THAN THURSDAY INTO WEEKEND, DECIDED
TO GO AHEAD WITH AN HWO GRAPHIC INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL LIKELY
DEPICT A LARGER THREAT AREA TO SHOW AN EXPANDING CONCERN AND
LIKELY AREAWIDE INTO THE WEEKEND. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS, EXPANSIONS
AND HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
INCREASE THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND (PWS IN THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH
RANGE BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK). RAIN CHANCES WILL
MAINLY BE SUMMERTIME VARIETY (DIURNALLY INDUCED) THURSDAY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AND ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ TRACE INTO THE
WEEKEND AND SPREADING NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE
WILL BE ISOLATED TO AT TIMES SCATTERED COVERAGE (20 TO 45 PERCENT
RANGE) TO A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS IN THE PINE BELT EARLY NEXT WEEK
FROM DEEP MOISTURE (PWS IN EXCESS OF 2.0 INCHES) AND POTENTIALLY
SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. THIS PATTERN WILL NOT FAVOR ANY NOTEWORTHY
STORM THREAT, BUT A FEW SCATTERED STRONGER GUSTY STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY LATE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /DC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH VARIABLE WINDS NEAR 5 KTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 96 72 96 73 / 0 0 20 0
MERIDIAN 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 20 0
VICKSBURG 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 20 0
HATTIESBURG 97 74 96 72 / 10 0 30 0
NATCHEZ 97 73 96 73 / 20 0 30 10
GREENVILLE 96 73 96 74 / 0 0 20 0
GREENWOOD 95 72 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/SW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page