150
FXUS64 KJAN 251157
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
657 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
- SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK
AHEAD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND RELATEDLY HEAT
STRESS CONCERNS CONTINUES TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS
LIKELY THROUGH THIS MORNING COMPLICATING THE FORECAST. IT SEEMS
LIKELY, THOUGH, THAT AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL CREEP INTO THE 90S F
ACROSS THE AREA AND COUPLED WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY HUMID
CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE 70S F, HEAT
INDICES LIKELY CRACK 100 F FOR MOST AND APPROACH 105 F FOR SOME.
FOR THIS REASON, A "LIMITED" THREAT AREA FOR DANGEROUS HEAT
CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED FOR MAINLY OUR NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
PARISHES, SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS COUNTIES, AND PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI
WEST OF I-55 AND IN THE PINE BELT.
WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEK ...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE LIKELIHOOD
THAT THESE DISTURBANCES GENERATES SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER VERSUS SOME RISK FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
WILL LIKELY COME DOWN TO TIMING. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THE MOST
FAVORABLE WINDOW FOR THESE DISTURBANCES COULD COME IN THE MORNING
HOURS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD TEND
TO LIMIT THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WE SEE EACH DAY. FOR THAT
REASON, LOCAL GRAPHICS WILL NOT ADVERTISE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WITH THIS UPDATE CYCLE. SHOULD CONFIDENCE IMPROVE INDICATING
SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY, A SMALL "MARGINAL" RISK AREA
COULD BE INTRODUCED FOR WEDNESDAY.
LOOKING BEYOND MIDWEEK, THE STOUT UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN BUT BEGIN TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD AGAIN ALONG THE
GULF COAST REGION. UPPER HEIGHTS LOCALLY THEN ARE LIKELY TO ONLY
MARGINALLY INCREASE BUT WITH WEAKER FLOW ALOFT AND THE RIDGE MORE
CENTERED NEAR THE AREA, A RELATIVELY DRIER STRETCH IS LIKELY
HEADED INTO THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE IT'S EASTWARD SHIFT THEREAFTER AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
TRANSITION TO FOCUS ON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND AIR MASS
THUNDERSTORMS. /NF/86/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2026
ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL
MAINLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD./15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 91 72 95 73 / 20 10 30 60
MERIDIAN 94 73 95 73 / 10 10 40 50
VICKSBURG 91 72 96 73 / 50 10 20 60
HATTIESBURG 93 73 96 73 / 20 10 40 40
NATCHEZ 93 73 97 74 / 50 0 20 50
GREENVILLE 93 73 95 73 / 50 20 30 70
GREENWOOD 92 72 94 72 / 30 30 40 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/15
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