877
FXUS64 KJAN 111643 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1143 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- DROUGHT CONTINUES TO WORSEN ACROSS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
NEAR TERM: SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
WILL SUSTAIN DRY AND WARM WEATHER AS WE KICK OFF THE WEEKEND. EVEN
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MS AND
CENTRAL LA EARLY YESTERDAY EVENING APPEAR LESS LIKELY TODAY AS A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS PIVOTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. WHERE
THERE IS RELATIVELY GREATER MOISTURE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST, PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TO A LESSER EXTENT SUNDAY MORNING.
INTO NEXT WEEK: THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
MIGRATE EASTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST. THOUGH WE'LL LARGELY
REMAIN WITHIN THE REALM OF INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGE, WE WILL SEE
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS WESTERN
PERIPHERY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED MOISTURE, WITH DEWPOINTS
MORE COMMONLY GETTING INTO THE 60S EACH DAY AND TEMPS CONTINUING
TO TREND UPWARD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOST OF THE ACTIVE
WEATHER AROUND US INTO THE COMING WEEK. IN A FEW CIRCUMSTANCES WE
MAY SEE REMNANT CONVECTION IMPINGE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT
OF OUR AREA (SOUTHEAST AR, NORTHWEST MS, AND NORTH LA), AS MAY BE
THE CASE SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY AND ON THURSDAY. AND
ITS POSSIBLE A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS COULD OCCUR IN THE
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. OVERALL THOUGH, MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING FORECAST PERIOD.
ON THAT NOTE, GIVEN INCREASINGLY DRY FUELS AND INCREASED
SOUTHERLY WIND WITH LINGERING LOW RH AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, FIRE DANGER WILL BECOME MORE ELEVATED. MINIMUM
RHS MOSTLY REMAINING UP IN THE 30 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE WILL SERVE
AS SOME DEGREE OF MITIGATION, BUT WIND IS OFTEN A BIGGER DRIVER
IN THESE SITUATIONS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS CLOSELY AND
MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL MORE PUBLICLY.
LOOKING BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS SOME HOPE FOR
RAIN WITH A COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH UNFORTUNATELY, THE
PROSPECTS FOR SUFFICIENT RAIN TO PUT A DENT IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT
APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME. /DL/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
OVERALL NO MUCH TO TALK ABOUT WHEN IT COMES TO AVIATION TODAY.
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHORT LIVED FOG DEVELOPMENT IN
SOUTHERN SECTORS, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
LEAVING THEM OUT OF THE FORECAST. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR GUSTS
ESPECIALLY IN AND AROUND THE DELTA TOMORROW, BEGINNING AROUND THE
END OF THE PERIOD. SINCE THE GUSTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
HIGH (20KTS), FELT IT WAS WORTH A MENTION EVEN IF ITS NEAR THE END
OF THE PERIOD./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 58 85 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 56 86 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 59 86 65 86 / 0 0 10 10
HATTIESBURG 57 85 60 86 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 59 85 65 86 / 0 0 0 10
GREENVILLE 60 85 66 85 / 0 0 20 20
GREENWOOD 60 86 65 85 / 0 0 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/OAJ
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