102
FXUS64 KJAN 140138 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
838 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LIMITED THREAT (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING THROUGH
TUESDAY.
- WARMING TREND MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH INCREASING HEAT STRESS A
POTENTIAL CONCERN, ESPECIALLY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THROUGH MIDWEEK (WEDNESDAY): THERE IS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY THAT
IS THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HEATING, FRONTAL/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SOUTHWESTWARD
PROPAGATION OF DEVELOPING UPPER LOW WILL SPARK ADDITIONAL COVERAGE
(SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS IN THE 40 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE) MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR. WITH DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES (PWS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE), ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE DEVELOPING UPPER LOW IN CENTRAL TO EAST-NORTHEAST
MS, LIGHT TO VARIABLE BACKBUILDING VECTORS, SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY.
WE KEPT TODAY'S FLASH FLOOD GRAPHIC ABOUT THE SAME, JUST EXPANDED
IT A BIT WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO LATE EVENING. HEAVY DOWNPOURS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS. THIS FRONT
WILL BE STATIONARY OR WAFFLE IN THE REGION AND COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE (AROUND 2.0 TO 2.2 INCHES) AND LIGHT FLOW, SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN AND STORMS, WITH EMBEDDED LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MIDWEEK, AND HAVE NOW ADDED A GRAPHIC
FOR TUESDAY TO CORRESPOND WITH THE WPC SLIGHT RISK IN THE
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK. WHILE SEVERE STORMS AREN'T FORECAST,
SOME LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE WESTWARD
MIGRATING UPPER LOW COULD SPARK SOME MORE ROBUST STORMS THAT COULD
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HIGHER
RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE WARMTH IN
CHECK, WITH BELOW NORMAL HIGHS, SOME 4F TO 8F DEGREES BELOW (85F
TO 91F) AND SEASONABLE LOWS (70F TO 73F).
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND: RIDGING ALOFT WILL AGAIN REASSERT
ITSELF OVER THE REGION. WHILE THIS WILL LESSEN THE OVERALL RAIN
CHANCES (ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN THE 20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE)
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, THE TRADE-OFF CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A
RETURN TO HOT HUMID CONDITIONS AS HIGHS AREAWIDE EVENTUALLY CLIMB
BACK INTO THE MID 90S NEXT WEEKEND. LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM
DURING THIS PERIOD, SOME 3F TO 6F ABOVE (73F TO 76F). THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO BRING BACK CONCERNS FOR INCREASING HEAT STRESS YET AGAIN
DURING THIS EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOLDING OFF
INTRODUCING HWO HEAT GRAPHICS FOR NOW BUT WILL MONITOR IF TRENDS
HOLD. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 836 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
MVFR CEILINGS TO START THE PERIOD AT KHEZ, WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AT SEVERAL SITES BEFORE 12Z TUESDAY.
SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BRING PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 86 71 88 / 60 70 40 40
MERIDIAN 71 85 70 88 / 50 90 40 50
VICKSBURG 72 88 71 88 / 40 60 20 40
HATTIESBURG 72 86 71 90 / 30 60 30 30
NATCHEZ 71 86 71 89 / 10 50 20 20
GREENVILLE 72 88 71 88 / 40 60 40 70
GREENWOOD 71 88 71 88 / 50 90 40 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/NF
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