672
FXUS64 KJAN 180206
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
906 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL INCREASE, AND THE RISK FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL DECREASE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING, WITH JUST A
FEW SHOWERS LEFT IN THE SOUTH. EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT,
WITH VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
AN ESPECIALLY INTENSE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN IT'S
POSITION OVER OUR REGION THROUGH MID WEEK. A HOT LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE AXIS (E.G., H850 T UP TO 24 DEG C) WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 104 DEG F IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION,
AND THE 100 TO 103 DEG F RANGE ELSEWHERE. A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN, AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE HOT
ENOUGH TO MEET EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA IN SPITE OF GREATER
MIXING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT HEAT GRAPHICS
FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND MAINTAINED AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT
ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES/WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED. ADDITIONAL HEAT
RELATED MESSAGING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THERE CONTINUE TO BE
INDICATIONS THAT STRONG WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THEIR SOLUTIONS OF SUPPRESSING AND WEAKENING THE RIDGE, AND THUS
ALLOWING FOR GREATER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL CHANCES IN OUR AREA. IN
ADDITION, WITH THE INCREASED MID LEVEL FLOW AND LAPSE RATES BEING
FORECAST, THIS COULD BE A TIME TO MONITOR FOR MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREATS, ESPECIALLY PER RECENT NCAR AI-
NWP GUIDANCE IN THE WED-FRI TIME FRAME.
IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING, THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS THE COMBINATION OF VERTICAL TOTALS 27+, LIFTED
INDEX OF NEAR -2C AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ANY STORM THAT DOES
MANAGE TO ORGANIZE AND BREAK THROUGH THE CAP COULD OVERACHIEVE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS WARRANTING THE ISSUANCE OF FUTURE PRODUCTS.
/EC/KP/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 724 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS EVENING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HBG,
WHERE SHOWERS/STORMS ARE OCCURING. EXPECT THE STORM TO DISSIPATE
BY MID EVENING, WITH ALL SITES BECOMING VFR AND REMAINING THAT WAY
THROUGH THE NIGHT./15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 100 78 101 77 / 0 0 10 20
MERIDIAN 100 77 99 75 / 10 0 20 30
VICKSBURG 99 78 100 77 / 0 0 10 10
HATTIESBURG 100 77 99 77 / 30 20 40 30
NATCHEZ 100 77 101 78 / 10 0 10 10
GREENVILLE 103 78 101 78 / 0 10 10 10
GREENWOOD 101 76 99 76 / 10 10 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
15/
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