666
FXUS64 KJAN 130543 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1143 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTH.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY WITH MORNING LOWS BELOW
FREEZING ACROSS THE NORTH.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS INTO THE 10-20 DEGREE RANGE.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 723 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
UPDATED SHORT-TERM WEATHER ELEMENTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH LATEST GUIDANCE. STILL EXPECT POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA TONIGHT, WITH PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE UNDER LOW CLOUD
DECK THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
BY TOMORROW EVENING. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
THROUGH SATURDAY: LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A RIDGE NOSING WEST
ALONG THE GULF COAST AND A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR NORTHWEST
MOST ZONES. THIS RIDGE WILL HANG TOUGH THROUGH SATURDAY AND THE
ASSOCIATED RETURN FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO OUR
NORTHERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND STALL NEARLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY. THUS, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL
BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THERE WILL REMAIN VERY
LOW CHANCES OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT, COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL RESIDE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WHILE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS OUR SOUTH.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF PATCHY DENSE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS WELL. /22/
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: A POTENT SHORTWAVE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACKSIDE OF A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL BE SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, WILL DEEPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER OUR REGION AND
HELP SEND A VERY COLD AND DRY AIRMASS TOWARD OUR CWA. THIS STRONG
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET AND PUSH SOUTH OF OUR SOUTHERN MOST ZONES BEFORE
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
AS IT MOVES INTO OUR CWA WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. NO WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED
IN OUR CWA SATURDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END WELL
BEFORE THE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES MOVE INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES.
MORNING LOWS SUNDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING
ALONG OUR HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY THE CENTER OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE
TRACKING EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY NORTH WIND ACROSS
OUR CWA SUNDAY THAT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL.
BOLIVAR AND SUNFLOWER COUNTIES MAY NOT RISE ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY.
DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER THE CWA SUNDAY
NIGHT. MORNING LOWS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS
THE NORTH TO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE NORTHEAST THE WIND WILL LIKELY REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT
RESULTING IN WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES OVER OUR WHOLE CWA OF 10-15
DEGREES. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES POSE A THREAT TO PEOPLE, PETS,
PIPES, AND PLANTS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 40S
AREAWIDE BEFORE BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 20S AREAWIDE TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS BUT OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME NEAR
ZONAL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING
TREND TO BACK ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THURSDAY. TUESDAY WILL BE
DRY BUT A COUPLE DISTURBANCES MAY BRING SOME RAIN TO PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. /22/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
DENSE FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE PROJECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH
PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AN
INCREASED COVERAGE/INTENSITY POSSIBLE WITH DAYBREAK. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE RAPIDLY WITH SUNRISE (AROUND 14Z). /OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 71 50 69 36 / 0 0 20 50
MERIDIAN 71 48 67 35 / 0 10 20 70
VICKSBURG 73 48 66 33 / 10 0 30 50
HATTIESBURG 73 54 73 45 / 10 10 30 70
NATCHEZ 73 53 72 38 / 10 10 30 70
GREENVILLE 66 39 55 27 / 0 0 10 20
GREENWOOD 67 39 62 28 / 0 0 10 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR MSZ043-047>066-
072>074.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LAZ015-016-
023>026.
AR...NONE.
22/22/OAJ
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