436
FXUS64 KJAN 191727
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1227 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
UPDATE
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION
18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS.
DISCUSSION
QUIET AND COOLER THAN AVERAGE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE ONLY CHANGE MADE DURING THE MORNING
UPDATE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE A
DEGREE OR TWO AREAWIDE.
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ANOTHER DRY AND BENIGN DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. DESPITE A
CHILLY START, HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 60S AREAWIDE UNDER ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND BEING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BUT OTHERWISE PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH
OVERNIGHT READINGS BEING THE COLDEST IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HERE, MID TO UPPER 30S WILL OCCUR WHICH MAY LEAD TO
ANOTHER NIGHT OF FROST POTENTIAL. ELSEWHERE, LOWER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE. /28/
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: AFTER A GLANCING BOUT OF SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY EVENING, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AS THE UPPER JET STREAM REMAINS DISPLACED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO KEEP OUR REGION IN A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS.
ON WEDNESDAY SURFACE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THIS, ALONG WITH GOOD INSOLATION,
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO SNEAK ABOVE 70 IN A FEW SPOTS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL
SWING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH LATE IN THE DAY, BRINGING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH OUR AREA WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE RECOVERY FOR A
BAND OF SHOWERS TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA DURING
THE EVENING, DEPARTING OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
THURSDAY, AND AS LOW/MID LEVEL HEIGHTS QUICKLY RECOVER BEHIND THE
SYSTEM, TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THURSDAY BEFORE RESUMING A
SLOW UPWARD TREND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO THE
DAYTIME SATURDAY, BUT THEN THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE MURKY AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS INCREASINGLY DIVERGE. A MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS
IT SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WITH
THIS FEATURE, IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
ENCROACH UPON OUR AREA AS UPPER FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM DECREASES.
THERE IS GREATER CONSENSUS IN A MORE ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE BRINGING A
SURFACE CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT IF
RECENT TRENDS CONTINUE, THESE WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED MORE FOR THE
MONDAY TIME FRAME. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 38 68 44 / 0 0 2 17
MERIDIAN 63 37 69 44 / 0 0 1 12
VICKSBURG 65 39 67 43 / 0 0 5 18
HATTIESBURG 65 38 70 45 / 0 0 0 3
NATCHEZ 66 40 67 44 / 0 0 1 7
GREENVILLE 63 40 66 42 / 0 0 22 39
GREENWOOD 62 38 66 42 / 0 0 9 42
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
JPM3
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