839
FXUS64 KJAN 041122 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
622 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LESS HUMID CONDITIONS EARLY WEEK, BUT HEAT STRESS RETURNS LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (MONDAY)...
THROUGH MIDWEEK (WEDNESDAY): RAP/WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATES
UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND 595DM
MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO MEAN
NORTHERLY DRY FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS WILL LOCK
IN PWS GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH AND LOW HUMIDITY ALOFT (I.E.
700-300MB LAYER HUMIDITY IN THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS) AND
EFFICIENT MIXING. THIS LEADS TO MODERATING TEMPERATURES:
HIGHS BECOMING SEASONABLY WARM INTO WEDNESDAY (91F TO 96F) AND
SEASONABLE LOWS (68F TO 71F THIS MORNING TO 71F TO 74F WEDNESDAY
NIGHT). WITH AFTERNOON MIXING BEING THE NORM, HEAT STRESS WILL
REMAIN LOWER, WITH A GRADUAL UPTICK OF HEAT INDEX IN SOUTHWESTERN
AREAS (HEAT INDICES IN THE 102F TO 105F RANGE BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON).
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY):
AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS THE GRIP OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO
THURSDAY, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND AN UPTICK IN
MOISTURE (LOW AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE) WILL FAVOR LESS EFFICIENT
MIXING, WARMTH/MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASING HEAT STRESS LATE
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM
(HIGHS IN THE 92F TO 96F RANGE AND LOWS IN THE 72F TO 76F RANGE).
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN MORE OF A LARGE SCALE WEAKNESS IN THE
FLOW BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE IN HIGHER SURFACE
DEWPOINTS (70F TO 76F) AND INCREASING HEAT STRESS CONCERNS.
EVEN THOUGH LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVING, THE KEY DIFFERENCE IS THE LOW LEVEL RETURN
MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASED DEEPENING MOISTURE ALOFT (PWS IN THE
1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK). RAIN
CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SUMMERTIME VARIETY (DIURNALLY INDUCED) WITH
ISOLATED TO AT TIMES SCATTERED COVERAGE (20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE).
THIS PATTERN WILL NOT FAVOR ANY NOTEWORTHY STORM THREAT, BUT A
FEW SCATTERED STRONGER GUSTY STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY LATER INTO THE WEEKEND.
MAIN HAZARD WEATHER CONCERN REMAINS INCREASING HEAT STRESS INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS STILL REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS OUT, WITH MOST
LIKELY AREAWIDE CONCERNS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD. HOLDING OFF MENTION
IN HWO THIS FORECAST CYCLE, BUT WILL LIKELY GET A POINT OF NEEDING
HWO GRAPHICS AND HEAT HEADLINES. /DC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME SHALLOW BR REMAIN POSSIBLE AT A
FEW SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE AT THIS
TIME. /DC/KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 92 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 94 71 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 94 72 96 73 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 95 72 96 73 / 0 0 10 0
GREENVILLE 93 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 92 70 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/KP
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