156
FXUS64 KJAN 052336 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
636 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
ANOTHER DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
90S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. A FEW LOCATIONS NORTH OF HWY 82 COULD
BRIEFLY SEE DAYTIME HIGHS REACH 100 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL ALL FOR
HEAT INDEX READING VALUES TO PEAK IN THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS
OUR CWA TODAY. AT THIS TIME NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HEAT
GRAPHIC, AND THE "ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ADVERTISED FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA FOR TODAY. LIKEWISE, THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF I-20. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING LEADING TO
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. AREAS SOUTH OF I-20 WILL START TO SEE CLOUD COVER BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S
AREAWIDE. GIVEN THE CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT SFC WIND, AND A HUMID
BOUNDARY LAYER, SOME DENSE FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR THIS REASON, A "LIMITED" RISK FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS
BEEN INTRODUCED MAINLY FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO SUNDAY, A QUICK AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TOUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD OUR
CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME ADDED COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH H850 TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 20S DEG C, AND THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED ELEVATED DANGEROUS HEAT LEVELS. BECAUSE OF THIS
AN HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA FROM 11 AM
SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL 7 PM SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION, A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS SCATTERED STORMS
SHOULD INITIATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY
STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SEVERE WIND
GUSTS IN THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. IF STORM DEVELOPMENT BECOMES MORE
IMMINENT, WE COULD CERTAINLY SEE THE RISK LEVEL INCREASE TO SLIGHT
(2 OF 5) AS THERE IS RECENT PRECEDENCE FOR STORMS TO OVERACHIEVE
WITH THE HOTTER DAYS AND ANOMALOUSLY HOT H850 TEMPS. TIMING OF THE
SEVERE STORMS FOR SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM TO 2 PM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY NIGHT. /CR/
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
THE FORECAST MESSAGING FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE SAME
WITH NO MAJOR MODIFICATIONS MADE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST. LONG TERM
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STUBBORN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT WILL
UNFORTUNATELY REMAIN IN PLACE OF THE GULF COAST STATES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK, SO DON'T EXPECT SIGNS FOR EARLY FALL
WEATHER TO SHOW UP ANY TIME SOON. INSTEAD, WE CAN EXPECTED
ADDITIONAL LIMITED TO ELEVATED DANGEROUS HEAT THREATS AND REDUCED
RAINFALL COVERAGE MOSTLY LIMITED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
RAIN WILL START TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SAT SEP 5 2026
ISOLATED SHRA WL COME IN VCTY OF HEZ THROUGH 01Z. ESLEWHERE, VFR
CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 09Z. AFTER 09Z MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WL BE PSBL IN THE SE UNTIL AFTER 15Z. AFTER 15Z VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL UNTIL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA BEGIN TO
AFFECT TAF SITES CNTRL AND EAST ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 20Z-24Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 97 74 98 / 0 40 20 10
MERIDIAN 73 99 73 99 / 0 30 20 10
VICKSBURG 73 97 74 98 / 0 30 20 10
HATTIESBURG 73 96 74 98 / 10 30 10 20
NATCHEZ 72 96 74 98 / 10 20 10 10
GREENVILLE 75 101 75 99 / 10 20 10 0
GREENWOOD 74 100 73 98 / 10 30 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>054-
059>062.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ055>058-
063>066-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
/CR/22
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