380
FXUS64 KJAN 221759
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1259 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
UPDATE
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION
18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
SITES AROUND THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY TSRA, RA,AND LOW CIGS
THROUGHOUT THE 24 FORECAST PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH OUT THE DAY BUT SOME SITES MAY DROP TO IFR
BRIEFLY AS STORMS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE
FROM THE NORTH THEREFORE, SOME SITE CAN SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE
MORNING. ALSO, SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE REGION JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING./JNE/
DISCUSSION
CURRENT REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A SURFACE FRONT
CROSSING INTO ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE FROM THE NORTH WITH SOME
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, REACHING
INTO NORTH MS AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS IS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH INTO OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OTHER STORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING
TO KICK OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT BEINGS TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO REACH
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO IMPACT THE
REGION.
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:
TODAY AND TONIGHT: WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AN ABNORMALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MS AND OH VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL DIVE ANOMALOUSLY FAR SOUTH
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE
AIRMASS CONVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY BY LATE MORNING OVER THE AREA,
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AS
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE TROUGH SOME HUNDRED MILES OR SO. GIVEN
THE TIME OF DAY, SOME STORMS MAY BECOME ROBUST OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS, BUT LACK OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MINIMAL. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING MOVING INTO THE EVENING, BUT STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FESTER ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT./GG/
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LINGERING FOR A
BIT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CONVECTION WILL CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE USHERING IN COOLER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT SO THAT DEWPOINTS
WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE
MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION,
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, ALMOST 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CONTINUED CAA ON WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME
THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE US AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN TWO- THIRDS.
BY FRIDAY, THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE
AGAIN. THEN, BY SATURDAY, SURFACE FLOW IS OUT OF THE SOUTH,
MOISTURE INCREASES, AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK IN THE 70S. CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD EAST. /10/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 90 72 83 64 / 43 53 52 4
MERIDIAN 90 73 84 64 / 36 51 56 18
VICKSBURG 89 72 83 65 / 41 45 33 2
HATTIESBURG 87 73 84 66 / 58 43 67 26
NATCHEZ 89 72 81 65 / 53 47 46 7
GREENVILLE 90 70 82 64 / 60 70 15 0
GREENWOOD 88 70 83 63 / 60 76 20 1
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
JNE
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