255
FXUS64 KJAN 070008
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
708 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 HAS FORMED AND IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
IT SHOULD BEGIN IMPACTING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION AS WE
APPROACH THE WEEKEND.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND WINDY CONDITIONS RELATED TO THE CYCLONE MAY
IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS A GOOD BIT
OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SPECIFIC TIMING.
- AHEAD OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM, FIRE WEATHER DANGER COULD
INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK OVER MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
MOST ATTENTION IS ON THE TROPICAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY IN THE FRI NIGHT TO SAT
NIGHT TIME FRAME. UNTIL THERE IS A BETTER DEVELOPED AND DEFINED
TROPICAL CYCLONE, MODEL SPREAD IN THE TIMING IS GREATER THAN
UNUSUAL RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN WE MIGHT EXPERIENCE
THE WORST IMPACTS. HOWEVER, THE IDEA THAT THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM
MAY TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IS VERY
PLAUSIBLE, AND THIS WOULD SUPPORT HEAVIER RAINFALL/WINDY
CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR AT SOME POINT
THIS WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE MORE EXTRATROPICAL IN NATURE AND
ENHANCED BY UPPER JET DYNAMICS, WE MAY SEE A HEAVIER RAINFALL
BAND DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE SURFACE LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGEST THIS COULD BE WEST OF
THE I-55 CORRIDOR, BUT WE'LL MESSAGE FOR GREATER RAIN/WIND THREATS
IN OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS UNTIL/UNLESS CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN
THAT POTENTIAL. RECENT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL HELP TO LIMIT FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS IN ANY CASE, AND WITH THE CENTER MORE LIKELY TO BE
EAST THAN WEST, ANY LOW END TORNADO THREATS WOULD LIKELY BE TO OUR
EAST WELL. WHAT IS A LITTLE TRICKER IS FIGURING OUT GRADIENT WIND
IMPACTS AS WIND ENVELOPES WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEMS TEND TO
EXPAND. ULTIMATELY, A 12 TO 18 HR PERIOD OF WINDY/RAINY CONDITIONS
SEEMS LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT
IN THE FRI NIGHT TO SAT NIGHT TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT SUBSIDENCE AROUND THE
DEVELOPING TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN FIRE
WEATHER DANGER DUE TO INCREASED MIXING AND HOT/DRY/BREEZY
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY WE GET TO THE THU-FRI TIME FRAME. LOOKING
AHEAD TO BEYOND THE SYSTEM, WE'LL SEE DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS
RETURN BENEATH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
OVER OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT ALL AREA TAF SITES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS. THESE WILL SUBSIDE TO CALM TO AROUND
3 KNOTS FROM THE EAST TONIGHT./KP/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 89 63 91 62 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 87 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 90 64 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 87 63 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 89 65 91 63 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 88 62 89 62 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 90 61 92 60 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/19/KP
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