712
FXUS64 KJAN 120236 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
936 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- "MARGINAL RISK" (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BOTH THROUGH SUNDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING, WITH
THE RAIN COOLED AIR BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REGISTERING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S. WARM, HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST
SOUTH/AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. TEMPS AT 9 PM WERE AROUND 80
DEGREES THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDER WILL SPREAD SOUTH WITH THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE MORNING, AND
GENERALLY INCREASE AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HEATING AROUND THE BOUNDARY.
/NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL
WEAKEN ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL YET AGAIN ALLOW
TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE ALOFT TO BECOME THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BEGINNING
THIS AFTERNOON, RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH VERY GOOD CHANCES CONTINUING EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
STILL, AND AT LEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON, HOT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST AREAWIDE AS HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE 90S. THIS, COUPLED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, IS BRINGING HEAT INDEX VALUES
CLIMBING UP TO NEAR 110F, ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER ARKLAMISS DELTA
REGION WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AFTER COORDINATION WITH
MEG/LZK OFFICES. AFTER TODAY, WITH THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE POTENTIAL
FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL BE SQUASHED.
THIS EVENING: WITH A BIT MORE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING
UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, ATTENTION WILL NEED TO BE PAID
UPSTREAM FOR ANY COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT
THE CWA. THE FIRST OF SUCH LOOKS TO COME LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING AS A COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH AND
POTENTIALLY INTO FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT, A
"MARGINAL RISK" FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS RESIDES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
SUCH STORMS, ALTHOUGH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN
BOTH BE EXPECTED.
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING: A MULTITUDE OF NEAR TERM
HIGH-RES GUIDANCE INDICATE A RELATIVE LULL IN THE CONVECTION
GOING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND SO THAT IS THE GENERAL IDEA FOR
THIS FORECAST. DON'T BE SURPRISED IF THERE IS A LINGERING STRONG
STORM OR TWO AROUND DAYBREAK THAT PERSISTS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR THIS IN THE 12Z REFS (MORE
SPECICALLY THE 12Z HRRR AND REFS CONTROL MEMBERS). EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY, IF IT EXISTS, TO WASH OUT SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AND NOT
BE A HUGE INFLUENCE ON HOW CONVECTION DEVELOPS LATER SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO SETTLE INTO THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY WEEK, WE'LL AGAIN MAINTAIN GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, A
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE ACROSS THE
CWA. ANOTHER "MARGINAL RISK" FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL AGAIN EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RESULT. AGAIN, BOTH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY WASHOUT, DUE TO THE OVERALL
TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE REGION, COMBINED WITH THE
CONTINUED HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS, THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL
PERSIST INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. WHILE SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY
AREN'T FORECAST AFTER SUNDAY, GIVEN THE AGAIN OVERALL CONTINUED
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE MOST INTENSE STORMS COULD STILL PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS, ALONG WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
FINALLY, COME THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY, RIDGING ALOFT
REASSERTING ITSELF OVER THE REGION FROM THE EAST IS PROGGED TO
LESSEN SAID RAIN CHANCES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE
TRADE-OFF CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A RETURN TO INCREASED HEAT STRESS
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. /19/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES, WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDER IMPACTS AND VARIABLE WINDS AT KGLH, KGWO, AND
KGTR AS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
SOUTHWARD. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 91 72 88 / 10 50 60 60
MERIDIAN 74 92 72 88 / 20 60 60 60
VICKSBURG 75 91 73 88 / 10 60 60 70
HATTIESBURG 73 93 73 85 / 10 50 70 80
NATCHEZ 73 91 73 86 / 20 60 80 90
GREENVILLE 74 90 72 90 / 70 50 30 10
GREENWOOD 73 90 72 90 / 70 60 20 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/NF
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