737
FXUS64 KJAN 101839
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
139 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL TREND LOWER BY MID WEEK, AND THEN BEGIN TO RETURN THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY: LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DISSIPATING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
BRING VERY LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HEAT STRESS WILL
REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY. A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS EVENING FOR THE AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND WILL BE IN EFFECT
AGAIN TUESDAY. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE THE MOST OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL SEE PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 105F THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY. /22/
THROUGH THE WEEKEND: AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS, BUT THE BERMUDA HIGH IS BECOMING THE
DOMINANT FEATURE IN OUR REGION AS IT RETROGRADES FROM THE ATLANTIC
TO THE GULF COAST. AS IT TREKS WESTWARD THIS WEEK, IT WILL BECOME
A STRONGER LIMITING FACTOR FOR RAIN CHANCES. HIGH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES WILL PERSIST IN THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK, SO
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PUSH OUR DAILY HEAT INDEX VALUES
OVER 105 DEGREES EACH DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
SPOTTY RELIEF FROM THE HEAT. DRIER AIR WILL WRAP FROM THE GULF AND
SOUTHWESTERN US AS THE RIDGE BECOMES MORE PREVALENT, AND PWAT
VALUES WILL FALL CLOSER TO 1.5 INCHES BY ON FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS FAVORING A NEW SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BY SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY THOUGH, AND THE STOUT RIDGE AND DEEP MOISTURE COULD RESULT
IN MORE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT DANGEROUS HEAT (HEAT INDEX VALUES
NEAR OR GREATER THAN 110 DEGREES) BY THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE MID OR UPPER 70S LATER IN THE WEEK,
WORSENING HEAT STRESS FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS AND THOSE WITHOUT
AIR CONDITIONING. AND RAIN CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND EAST AS HUMIDITY INCREASES THERE.
RESIDENTS ARE REMINDED THAT HEAT IS PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS FOR
THE ELDERLY, THE SICK, AND THOSE WITHOUT ACCESS TO RELIABLE AIR
CONDITIONING. BE SURE LOVED ONES AND NEIGHBORS HAVE ACCESS TO A
COOL PLACE TO STAY IN PERIODS OF MORE INTENSE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
/NF/22/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WERE NOTED DEVELOPING ON LOCAL RADARS IN THE NE
AND SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN AND AFFECT MAINLY
THE EAST AND SOUTHERN TAF SITES. AWAY FROM ANY TSRA,VFR CONDITIONS
AND A LIGHT WIND WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 95 76 96 / 10 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 75 94 76 95 / 10 10 0 10
VICKSBURG 75 95 76 96 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 75 97 75 97 / 10 10 0 10
NATCHEZ 74 96 75 97 / 0 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 77 96 78 98 / 10 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 76 94 77 96 / 10 10 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-
034>036-040>043-047-048-053-054-059>062.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-
034>036-040>043-047-048-053-054-059>062.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
22/NF/22
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