259
FXUS64 KJAN 071843
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
143 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH HUMIDITY IN THE
REGION THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
AN ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TODAY, AND LOOKS TO REMAIN THERE THROUGH EARLY TO
MID WEEK AT LEAST. TO THE EAST, THE BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BUT THAT WILL ACTUALLY RETROGRADE
TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND GULF COAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEANWHILE, WESTERLY FLOW WITH THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN DEFLECTED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK WHEN A MORE
PRONOUNCED RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN ESTABLISHES OVER THE COUNTRY.
OUR FORECAST AREA AND BROADER REGION WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
"MOSTLY" BENEATH THE WEAK TROUGHING PATTERN BETWEEN THE RIDGES
INTO NEXT WEEK. PWAT VALUES REMAIN SOUPY WITH ONSHORE FLOW AND
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING REINFORCED WITH AN EASTERLY WAVE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG RIDGING OVERHEAD,
REINFORCING MOISTURE INFLUX, AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS, THE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD 105-110 HEAT INDEX VALUES IS
NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT
IN TIME. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH DAY WILL BE NEAR 105 DEGREES,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. "LIMITED" HEAT STRESS
MESSAGING IS IN LINE WITH THE EXPECTED FORECAST, BUT THIS KIND OF
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS STILL DANGEROUS FOR SENSITIVE
POPULATIONS, ESPECIALLY THE ELDERLY OR PEOPLE WITHOUT FUNCTIONING
AIR CONDITIONING IN THE HOME. CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN TO LIMIT
STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES IN MID DAY, AND FREQUENT BREAKS WITH COOL
WATER AND SHADE ARE ADVISED FOR ANYONE WORKING OR PLAYING OUTDOORS
THIS TIME OF YEAR. BY LATER NEXT WEEK, WE MAY SEE SOME
STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE OVERHEAD, AND THIS COULD RESULT IN
GREATER HEAT STRESS LEVELS. /NF/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE POSSIBLE AT SITES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR (<30% CHANCE). STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
AROUND SUNSET. BRIEFLY MVFR VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AT HBG AND PIB
TOMORROW MORNING. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 93 73 94 / 10 30 10 40
MERIDIAN 73 93 74 93 / 0 30 10 40
VICKSBURG 73 93 74 93 / 10 20 10 20
HATTIESBURG 73 94 73 94 / 10 20 20 50
NATCHEZ 72 94 73 94 / 10 30 10 30
GREENVILLE 74 94 75 95 / 10 40 10 20
GREENWOOD 73 93 73 94 / 10 40 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/EC/SAS20
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