545
FXUS64 KJAN 170012 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
712 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. DAILY MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 105 TO 115 DEGREES.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
OPPRESSIVE HEATWAVE CONTINUES INTO TODAY. DEEP RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
CENTERED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX TO GULF COAST REGION, KEEPING
ANOMALOUS WARMTH BUT SOME DEEPER MOISTURE (1.6 TO 2 INCHES IN GOES
EAST SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER) HAS BUILT IN COMPARED
TO PAST FEW DAYS. A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE PINE BELT TO HWY 84 CORRIDORS, WHILE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
SNEAKED IN UNDER THE RIDGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE ECLIPSED THE
CENTURY MARK AT NUMEROUS LOCATIONS, WITH SOME IN THE 101F TO 103F
RANGE (GREENVILLE-GLH AT 103F, JACKSON-JAN AT 102F AND SEVERAL
OTHERS AT 101F). DANGEROUS HEAT PERSISTS, WITH THE INHERITED HEAT
HEADLINES/WARNINGS VALID AND PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHT. DEWPOINTS
HAVE ONLY MIXED INTO THE UPPER 60S AT SOME SITES (68F TO 70F),
WHILE HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (72F TO 75F) AT OTHER
SITES. HEAT INDICES HAVE PEAKED WELL INTO EXTREME HEAT CONCERNS
(108F TO 115F). OVERNIGHT RELIEF IS UNLIKELY AS LOWS AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO FALL BELOW 80F. SEVERAL RECORD HIGHS WERE TIED
(GREENVILLE-GLH AT 103F AND TALLULAH/VICKSBURG-TVR AT 101F).
RECORD WARM LOWS WERE LIKELY OBSERVED (GREENVILLE-GLH AT 79F,
TALLULAH/VICKSBURG-TVR AT 75F AND HATTIESBURG-HBG AT 80F).
ADDITIONAL WARM LOW RECORDS REMAIN LIKELY OVERNIGHT. UPDATES WERE
SENT OUT EARLIER. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 134 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
THE VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.. HAVE EXPANDED THE HEAT WARNING TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHERE HEAT INDICES
WILL CLIMB TO 110 OR ABOVE. THE EXTREME HEAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA./15/
AN ESPECIALLY INTENSE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN IT'S
POSITION OVER OUR REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A HOT LOW LEVEL
THERMAL RIDGE AXIS (E.G., H850 NEAR 24 DEG C) WILL SUPPORT HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 104 DEG F IN THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION,
AND THE 100 TO 103 DEG F RANGE ELSEWHERE. A FEW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BROKEN, AND HEAT INDICES WILL BE HOT
ENOUGH TO MEET EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA, IN SPITE OF GREATER
MIXING. HAVE MAINTAINED THE ELEVATED TO SIGNIFICANT HEAT GRAPHIC
AND UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ACCORDINGLY. LATER THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT STRONG WESTERLIES WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE,
AND ALLOW FOR GREATER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL CHANCES IN OUR AREA.
THIS COULD BE A TIME TO MONITOR FOR MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 712 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED SHRA AND TSRA INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BUT
COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO ADD FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS, UNDER SCATTERED TO
BROKEN (SCT-BKN) CUMULUS DECK BETWEEN 6-10KFT (MAINLY DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS). SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY (SUSTAINED/GUSTS LESS THAN 10MPH),
LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AND WESTERLY ON MONDAY. CANNOT
RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA COVERAGE IN THE PINE BELT INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY (AFTER 17/19Z), BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE IN THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 78 99 77 100 / 0 10 10 10
MERIDIAN 77 99 76 99 / 10 10 10 10
VICKSBURG 77 98 77 99 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 77 99 77 99 / 10 20 10 30
NATCHEZ 77 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 80 101 77 101 / 0 10 10 0
GREENWOOD 78 99 76 99 / 0 10 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ007-015-023-024.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ008-009-016-
025-026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ075.
DC/EC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page