881
FXUS64 KJAN 152340 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
640 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
PORTIONS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE US
HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY.
- CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (TUESDAY)...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP FOG
DEVELOPMENT ON CARDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 12Z HREF AND REFS
INDICATE GOOD DENSE FOG PROBS (40 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR AREAS THAT HAD
FOG ISSUES EARLY THIS MORNING. BASED ON CONTINUED STAGNANT AND
CARBON COPY OF AN ENVIRONMENT, WENT AHEAD AGAIN WITH AN HWO GRAPHIC
FOR DENSE FOG AND THINKING ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IN THE SOUTHEAST PINE BELT AREAS.
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY):
MEAN RIDGING OVER THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
SHUNT AN APPROACHING FRONT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND FRONT WILL DRIVE SOME RAIN CHANCES INTO THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR
INTO TUESDAY, WITH THE TIMING MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
HOURS AND LOW COVERAGE (20 TO 35 PERCENT). RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN
THE WAKE INTO FRIDAY, WITH DECENT PROBABILITY (30 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 90 DEGREES.
AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL COMMENCE WITH A DEEP SYNOPTIC
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT DRIVING DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE WELL NORTH,
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES AND CANADA. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL DRIVE THE COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE (1.6
TO 1.8 INCHES) TO BRING IN DECENT RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE (50 TO
70 PERCENT). THIS WILL BRING GOOD BENEFICIAL RAINS, BUT LESS THAN
AN INCH, WHICH WILL NOT MAKE A HUGE DENT IN THE ONGOING DROUGHT
CONCERNS. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE STORMS IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
ANOMALOUS SURFACE HIGH AROUND 1025MB WILL DRIVE IN MUCH COOLER AND
DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL INTO LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK (I.E. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH TUESDAY). /DC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 09Z WHEN IFR/LIFR VSBYS WL
DEVELOP IN THE SE. MVFR CIGS WL ALSO BEGIN DEVELOPING SW AND CNTRL
AFTER 09Z. THE VSBY WL IMPROVE BY 15Z BUT THE MVFR CIGS WL TAKE
UNTIL 18Z TO IMPROVE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THU AFTN
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 63 86 64 88 / 0 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 61 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 63 87 64 88 / 0 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 62 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 64 87 64 88 / 0 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 66 85 67 88 / 10 20 10 0
GREENWOOD 66 85 66 89 / 0 20 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ056>058-
063>066-072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/DC/22
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