370
FXUS64 KJAN 160600
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
100 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING REMAINS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEK,
WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL WORSENING INTO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1258 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
TODAY...
MESOANALYSIS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOWS +THETA-E ADVECTION STILL OCCURING
INTO THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN THE VICINITY OF I-20. THIS SHOULD
BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. THIS ROUND OF HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD INCLUDE AS MUCH AS 4-5 INCHES, ESPECIALLY JUST SOUTH
AND PARALLEL THE I-20 CORRIDOR. BECAUSE OF THIS, AND INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IMPACTS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, A
SIGNIFICANT HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE HWO GRAPHIC. THIS ROUGHLY
MATCHES WITH THE MODERATE RISK IN THE ERO BY WPC. 3HR MAX QPF IN THE
REFS THIS MORNING SHOWS MULTIPLE BULLSEYES OF 4-7 INCHES, AND THE
MEAN IS NEAR THE MAX, INDICATING THE CEILING FOR RAINFALL THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES, WITH REINFORCED SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF A TROPICAL
GULF LOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE
SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL, LIKELY THURSDAY FOR OUR AREA. THIS
FEATURE WILL CARRY WITH IT A VERY MOIST AIRMASS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS
OF 2.5 INCH PWAT. GIVEN ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THIS ADDITIONAL ROUND
WOULD LIKELY EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
THAT RECEIVE GREAT AMOUNTS TODAY INTO TOMORROW. WHILE TC DEVELOPMENT
PROBABILITIES HAVE INCREASED, THE PRIMARY THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS UNCHANGED, THEREFORE HAZARD MESSAGING REMAINS CONSISTENT.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A LOW END RISK FOR SEVERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL LOW. DESPITE MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES, LOW LEVEL SHEAR
MAY BE ENHANCED BY THE LOW. ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP MOISTURE,
EMBEDDED LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH THE
RISK REMAINS LOW. THE PRIMARY SEVERE CONCERNS WOULD LIKELY BE WIND
AND PERHAPS A WEAK TORNADO WITHIN THE TROPICAL REGIME.
THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND AND
LIKELY WASHES OUT THIS WEEKEND. AIRMASS MODIFICATION IS LIKELY SLIM,
BUT PWAT, WHILE STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL, WILL BE
MORE SEASONAL (1.5-1.7). THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SOME "BREAK" FROM THE
ONSLAUGHT OF MOISTURE, WITH COVERAGE OVERALL MORE SCATTERED THIS
WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY-SUNDAY GENERALLY LOOK TO
BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE, WITH FOCUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY
84 CORRIDOR. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, BUT INCREASED
WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY THE MIDDLE NEXT WEEK MAY MEAN THAT
RELIEF MAY BE ON THE WAY. /SAS/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 942 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
SOME LIGHT SHRA REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, THEN SHRA AND TSRA PICKING
BACK UP IN COVERAGE AFTER 16/06-08Z FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE
AT MOST BUT ESPECIALLY CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TAF SITES (HKS, JAN,
MEI, PIB, HBG AND HEZ), WHICH COULD LEAD TO MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR
SOME PERIOD OF THE DAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF STRATUS (MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS) AREA LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS. IFR STRATUS/CEILINGS
IMPROVE TO MVFR MID MORNING AROUND 16/16-18Z, WITH MOST SHRA AND
TSRA COVERAGE THE HIGHEST IN THE INTERSTATE 20 TO HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDORS THROUGH MORNING. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, WHICH COULD BRING MUCH
LOWERED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SOME
MORE RESTRICTIVE STRATUS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, WITH TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 79 70 87 75 / 100 30 60 50
MERIDIAN 77 70 87 75 / 100 40 60 50
VICKSBURG 80 71 88 75 / 90 10 40 50
HATTIESBURG 78 71 86 76 / 90 60 80 50
NATCHEZ 79 72 87 75 / 100 40 70 60
GREENVILLE 84 71 89 75 / 50 20 10 30
GREENWOOD 84 71 90 75 / 60 20 20 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MSZ040>043-047>051-
053>057-059>066-072>074.
LA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/SAS20/DC
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