762
FXUS64 KJAN 152259
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
559 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK, WITH
INCREASING HEAT STRESS A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
DIURNAL CONVECTION HAS BEEN LESS WIDESPREAD SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT AWAY FROM THE
AREA. ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET, WITH NO PRESSING WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM.
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HEAT
STRESS BECOMING A GREATER CONCERN. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (TUESDAY)...
THROUGH LATE WEEK (FRIDAY): MORNING WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATE
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHWEST MS AND SOUTHEAST AR, PROGGED TO
GRADUALLY DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND WEAKEN TO MORE TROUGH
AXIS/VORT MAX OVER AR INTO THE AFTERNOON. RAP/UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
INDICATES STOUT 598-600DM EXTENDING IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES, WHILE ANOTHER WEAKER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE
GULF COAST STATES TO ARKLATEX. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WASH OUT
TODAY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND LIGHT FLOW, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN
AND STORMS (35 TO 70 PERCENT) AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND A FEW
STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY. INCREASED RAIN AND STORM
COVERAGE AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP SEASONABLE WARMTH IN CHECK, WITH BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS, SOME 4F TO 10F DEGREES BELOW (85F TO 91F) AND
SEASONABLE LOWS (69F TO 73F).
594DM RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH
INCREASING THERMAL WARMTH. THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY THURSDAY TO
FRIDAY. PWS FALL TO LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES THURSDAY AND A SLIGHT
UPTICK TO UP TO 1.75 INCHES BY FRIDAY. WHILE IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY,
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL AFTERNOON CONVECTION WITH
INCREASED INSOLATION AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE. RETURN HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IS ON TRACK AS HIGHS AREAWIDE CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S BY FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD,
SOME 3F TO 6F ABOVE (73F TO 76F). HEAT STRESS WILL BE A GRADUAL
CONCERN. WHILE HWO GRAPHICS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY, MOST LIKELY NEEDED
INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK (TUESDAY): RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE
WESTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND, LEADING TO A GRADUAL UPTICK IN DEEPER
MOISTURE AROUND 1.75 TO 2 INCHES. HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
AS HIGHS PEAK INTO THE MID 90S AND POSSIBLY UPPER 90S. THE CAVEAT
AND FAILURE MODE COULD BE THERE COULD BE A TOUCH MORE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION INTO LATE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONSISTS OF MEAN RIDGING INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS TO ROCKIES WHILE DEEPENING TROUGHING OVER THE
NORTHEAST, WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOWER OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF.
THIS WILL KEEP OUR REGION IN NORTHERLY FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT STRESS WILL REMAIN AN INCREASING CONCERN, SO WILL ADVERTISE A
HEAT HWO GRAPHIC, BUT MORE GENERIC. WITH THE POSSIBILITY SOME RAIN
CHANCES MAY CREEP BACK IN FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED IN THIS PATTERN OF
HEAT, HUMIDITY AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE, DIURNAL CONVECTION CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM DURING THIS PERIOD (75F
TO 77F). /DC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2026
ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA AND TS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WIND. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 71 91 73 93 / 10 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 70 92 73 93 / 10 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 71 92 74 93 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 72 95 74 96 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 71 93 74 94 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 72 91 74 93 / 10 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 71 91 73 93 / 20 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/DC
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