770
FXUS64 KJAN 130739
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
239 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A VARIETY OF IMPACTS TO THE
AREA AS WE FINISH UP THE WEEK AND GO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A LIMITED THREAT FOR STRONG WIND PRECEDING AND
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, AND A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CONTAINING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
- MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN MONDAY WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT
FREEZE THREAT TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTROL OUR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND,
STAYING DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING AND SHIFT SURFACE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. AS
A RESULT, DEWPOINTS WILL GRADUALLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
NEAR 60 BY EARLY SUNDAY. A STOUT UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A RAPIDLY
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR NEXT ROUND OF HAZARDS.
STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND RISES EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A STRONG
GRADIENT WIND THREAT BOTH AHEAD OF AND IN THE WAKE OF STORMS SUNDAY
NIGHT. GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE FOR IMPACTS BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, HAVE OPTED TO MESSAGE AREAWIDE LIMITED THREAT FOR BOTH DAYS
FOR WIND IN HWO. THE STRONG FORCING AND SHEAR, ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT A FORCED SQUALL LINE SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND A SLIGHT/MARGINAL RISK CONTINUES TO BE MESSAGED FOR THIS.
THAT SAID, THERE ARE SOME FAILURE MODES TO CONSIDER. MOISTURE RETURN
IS WEAK, AND THIS IS A SITUATION WHERE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL BE
ENHANCED RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT, GREATLY LIMITING CONVECTION AHEAD OF
THE LINE. FURTHERMORE, A FIRST GLANCE INTO AVAILABLE CAM GUIDANCE AT
THIS TIME SUGGESTS THE LINE QUICKLY WEAKENS AS IT RAPIDLY MOVES EAST
WITH WANING INSTABILITY. EASTERN EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IS
QUESTIONABLE. ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, THE PRIMARY HAZARDS APPEAR TO
BE WIND/TORNADO, PARTICULARLY WITH ANY SEGMENTS ORTHOGONAL TO THE
LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTOR. SHEAR IS BETTER ALIGNED RELATIVE TO THE
LINE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LINE, HOWEVER THIS IS MISALIGNED
WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY FURTHER SOUTH. CONSIDERING FORCING,
INSTABILITY NEED ONLY BE SUFFICIENT. THAT SAID, THE THREAT WINDOW
APPEARS SHORTER FURTHER NORTH.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL USHER IN
A COOLER AIRMASS AND WILL PROMOTE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN AREAWIDE IMPACTS,
ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE RECENT RECORD WARMTH, WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS FREEZE. IMPACTS TO
UNPROTECTED SENSITIVE VEGETATION ARE LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE TO
MESSAGE IN HWO. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RISE BACK
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BY
FRIDAY. A STRONG MIDLEVEL HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS.
/SAS/EC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 71 46 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 71 44 77 53 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 71 47 77 56 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 74 46 80 57 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 72 47 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 67 46 75 56 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 70 48 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/SAS20/DL
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