066
FXUS64 KJAN 012100
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
400 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FOR NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY HOT DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE FOR OUR REGION'S WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING MOSTLY LIMITED/ELEVATED
HEAT THREATS. A FEW MINOR PERTURBATIONS ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH
ARE SUPPORTING DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE VERY HOT,
MOIST, AND UNSTABLE AIR, AND THIS IS RESULTING IN LOWER END
(MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK) SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.
THIS AFTERNOON'S AIRMASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE > 5000 J/KG,
VERTICAL TOTALS UP TO 27, DOWNDRAFT CAPE NEAR 1400 J/KG,
PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2 INCHES, VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AND MID LEVEL FLOW OF 20 TO 30KT. THIS IS AN IMPRESSIVE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IF STORMS CAN BECOME
MORE FOCUSED IN OUR AREA. THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS
CERTAINLY WARRANTED AND WE'LL BE MONITORING FOR BOUNDARY
INFLUENCES CURRENTLY MOSTLY TO OUR NE AND SW THAT COULD INCREASE
STORMS HERE THAT PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE WANING LATE
TONIGHT. FOR THURSDAY, THE STORM FOCUS SHOULD BE MORE CENTERED
OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING,
AND SPC IS CURRENTLY ADVERTISING A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK FOR THIS
THREAT GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE HEAT/INSTABILITY IN THIS PERSISTENT
PATTERN.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL WEAKEN SOME THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT GREATER COVERAGE OF DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL, AND A SLIGHTLY "LESS HOT" LOW LEVEL THERMAL
RIDGE. WITH THAT SAID, DON'T EXPECT MUCH OF A DROP OFF IN HEAT
INDICES AS THERE WILL BE NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN THE AIRMASS. IN
FACT, THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE FOR SOME
RESTRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE AS WE GO THROUGH NEXT WEEK NEAR THE
GULF COAST. WILL KEEP A GRAPHIC FOR ELEVATED/LIMITED HEAT DANGER
GOING THROUGH SUNDAY FOR NOW, AND MONITOR FOR FUTURE THREATS INTO
NEXT WEEK. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE FORECAST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EVNG TSRA TO
IMPACT SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND PERHAPS AGAIN
THURSDAY, BUT PROBS ARE TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 94 75 95 / 30 10 0 10
MERIDIAN 76 96 75 97 / 30 10 10 10
VICKSBURG 75 94 76 94 / 30 10 0 10
HATTIESBURG 75 96 75 96 / 10 10 10 10
NATCHEZ 74 94 75 95 / 30 10 10 20
GREENVILLE 76 95 76 95 / 10 10 0 10
GREENWOOD 76 97 76 98 / 10 20 0 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ026>033-037>039-
044>046-050>052-056>058-060>066-072>074.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>039-046.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007-008-015-023-
024-026.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ009-016-
025.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ075.
EC
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