652
FXUS64 KJAN 061823
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
123 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW...
MADE A FEW UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST REGARDING THE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AS
GUIDANCE SUGGEST SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY. OTHER
THAN THAT SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT, NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. HI-RES GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING
A 1017-1022MB SFC HIGH HOVERING OVER THE APPALACHIANS, WITH A 592DM
500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR QUIET
WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS OUR CWA UNTIL LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
AS THIS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TO MID MS VALLEY, HI-RES GUIDANCE IS STILL
SHOWING AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF. TO THE WEST OF THIS LOW, MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A FEW STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AFTERNOON CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO 20%
ACROSS MUCH OUR CWA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO
PEAK IN THE LOW/MID 90S AREAWIDE.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASING HEAT STRESS
TODAY WITH MOST AREAS TOPPING OUT WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 101 TO
105 DEGREE RANGE. A FEW AREAS TOWARD THE DELTA WILL HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL TO REACH THE 105 HEAT INDEX MARK. FOR THIS REASON, NO
CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HEAT GRAPHIC FOR TODAY AND A "LIMITED"
RISK FOR INCREASING HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR
OUR ENTIRE CWA TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF HWY 84, ENDING BY MIDNIGHT.
AFTERNOON HREF GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW LOW PROBABILITIES
(AROUND 10-20%) OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY FOG GRAPHICS
AT THIS TIME, BUT PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY
AROUND DAWN. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE RISE HEADING INTO
MONDAY THANKS TO INCREASED SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF. INCREASED HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
FOCUS LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM GRENADA TO JACKSON TO LAUREL MS WILL SEE HEAT INDEX
READINGS BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE AND THE
"ELEVATED" RISK FOR INCREASING HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ADVERTISED. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY GIVEN
THE INCREASED WARMING TRENDS. FURTHER THREAT AREA ADJUSTMENTS AS
WELL AS HEAT HEADLINES AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /CR/
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEKEND (SUNDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA
HEADING INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGHER CONVECTION CHANCES WEDNESDAY TO
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS. DEWPOINTS WILL STILL REMAIN HIGH IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
WITH THE HOTTEST TIMEFRAME BEING MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON EACH
DAY BEFORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS BEGIN. GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS STILL
SHOWING A TROUGH AXIS OVER THE MID TENNESSEE VALLEY DROPPING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MS HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK. THIS
COMBINED WITH DAILY DIURNAL CONVECTION, FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
WESTERLY FLOW COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
TO OCCUR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW AT THIS TIME
REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE
INCONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODEL GUIDANCE. MORE INFORMATION WILL BECOME
AVAILABLE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE LATE WEEK. /CR/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2025
A FEW ISOLATED TSRA COULD OCCUR ACROSS SEVERAL EASTERN TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT WIND
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. /LP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 94 72 92 / 10 40 20 60
MERIDIAN 72 95 72 94 / 10 40 10 60
VICKSBURG 74 95 74 93 / 10 30 20 60
HATTIESBURG 72 95 73 96 / 10 60 10 50
NATCHEZ 72 92 72 90 / 10 50 10 60
GREENVILLE 74 94 74 93 / 0 20 10 50
GREENWOOD 74 96 74 94 / 0 20 10 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
CR/LP
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