331  
FXUS64 KJAN 100305  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1005 PM CDT TUE AUG 9 2022  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR EVENING DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED THIS EVENING, BUT  
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF  
EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY  
DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER, GIVEN OUR  
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE, SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO  
DROP SOUTH INTO THE DELTA ONCE AGAIN PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. ANOTHER  
AFTERNOON TOMORROW OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS  
LOOK ON TAP. /28/  
 
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:  
 
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY:  
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTER SPINNING OVER THE MID-SOUTH  
REGION TODAY HAS EXCITED SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS - MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SO FAR THIS  
AFTERNOON. WITH THE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT HIGH (PW OVER  
INCHES) AND INSTABILITY HIGH (SBCAPE OVER 3000 J/KG) ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE AREA, THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TAP INTO ROBUST  
FUEL FOR GROWTH AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN. IN A FEW PLACES, THE RAIN  
HAS ALREADY QUICKLY ADDED UP TO A FEW INCHES TODAY. THERE IS A  
WESTERLY COMPONENT TO LOWER- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE LOW,  
FOCUSED ALONG AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS  
THE LA/AR BORDER AND INTO NORTHWEST MS. STORMS ALONG THIS AXIS  
WILL POSE A SHORT-TERM FLASH FLOOD THREAT UNTIL OUTFLOW GRADUALLY  
PUSHES THE AXIS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THE THREAT FOR  
SLOW-MOVING STORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS THROUGH TOMORROW, A LIMITED  
FLASH FLOOD THREAT AREA IS EXTENDED THROUGH THAT TIME IN OUR  
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TEXT AND GRAPHICS. QUICK 2-4 INCH RAIN  
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT  
LIKELY, BUT SOME STRONGER STORMS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH WILL  
BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. /NF/  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY:  
 
WEDGED IN BETWEEN TWO HIGH PRESSURES, AND WITH STRONG RIDGING TO  
OUR WEST, A TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PERSIST ACROSS THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE HIGH PRESSURES WILL START TO  
BREAKDOWN SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO TAKE  
SHAPE ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. AS TROUGHING BEGINS TO PERSIST  
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, MID AND SURFACE LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE  
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST RESULTING IN INCREASED MOISTURE FROM THE GULF.  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING  
FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL EXTEND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT WON'T  
MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE MS VALLEY REGION JUST YET. HOWEVER WITH  
THE FRONT BEING WITHIN PROXIMITY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE  
PLENTIFUL AS PWS WILL RANGE FROM 1.5-2+ INCHES THROUGH OUT THE  
PERIOD. WITH THE EXPECTED DIURNAL CONVECTION, WEAK MID AND UPPER  
LEVEL JET FLOW, AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ANY DEVELOPING  
STORMS COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO TRAIN OVER SOME AREAS, MEANING  
SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE. WHILE WIDESPREAD  
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL  
LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I-20. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING FLASH  
FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR THESE DAYS PENDING HOW MUCH  
RAINFALL WE SEE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED FRONT  
WILL ENTER INTO OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING  
COOLER DEWPOINTS BEHIND IT. WHILE THERE WILL BE DIURNAL RAIN AND  
STORM CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, COOLER DEWPOINTS WILL RELIEVE  
US FROM THIS TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS WHICH WILL DECREASE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES  
THURSDAY-SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.  
 
WITH THE INCREASED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
MORE REGULATED AS CLOUD COVER INCREASE. THERE IS ALWAYS THE  
POSSIBILITY THAT CLOUD COVER UNDER ACHIEVES AND A FEW SPOTS ACROSS  
THE REGION MAY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100 BUT FOR NOW, HEAT  
INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT STRESS CRITERIA.  
 
AS WE ENTER INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST WILL  
BEGIN TO SLIDE OFF ONTO THE ATLANTIC SHORE AND RIDING WILL BEGIN TO  
BUILD BACK IN. AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD, TEMPERATURES WILL START  
TO WARM BACK INTO THE 90S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAT STRESS  
RETURNING./JNE/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING BUT ARE WINDING DOWN  
ACROSS THE REGION. STILL COULD BRING SOME MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS IN  
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY VFR THOUGH SOME  
BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL OCCUR  
TOMORROW, WHICH WILL BRING MVFR CEILING AND VIS RESTRICTIONS ONCE  
AGAIN. /28/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 72 87 71 85 / 33 80 39 73  
MERIDIAN 72 89 71 88 / 30 79 32 71  
VICKSBURG 72 86 71 85 / 40 75 37 60  
HATTIESBURG 73 87 72 88 / 30 85 27 79  
NATCHEZ 72 86 71 85 / 34 77 31 70  
GREENVILLE 72 85 71 86 / 47 76 50 46  
GREENWOOD 73 86 71 88 / 33 72 48 54  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
28  
 
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