803
FXUS64 KJAN 291136
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
636 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY, WARM AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY LATE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAINS LIKELY
INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH A SEASONABLY WARM AND
DRY AIRMASS BENEATH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH DEEP MIXING BY
AFTERNOON. WITH ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS AND RH VALUES (%) IN
THE MID-20S, A "LIMITED" FIRE DANGER OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO BE
ADVERTISED OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. CONTINUE TO BE
CAUTIOUS WHEN BURNING OUTDOORS AND TO HEED ANY LOCAL BURN BANS.
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH MID AND LATE WEEK,
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT DEEP GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA WHICH WILL EASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY LATE WEEK, AN UPPER LOW WILL BECOME ENTANGLED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE POLO AND THE MERGED SYSTEM WILL THEN
EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL STRENGTHEN,
RESULTING THE IN THE UPPER LOW STRUGGLING TO PENETRATE INTO THE
DEEP SOUTH AND INSTEAD BEING SHUNTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WHILE THE
BULK OF THIS STORM COMPLEX WILL MISS THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND
WEST, DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE THAT BECOMES
ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE ATLANTIC SIDE WILL COMBINE WITH
THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY FOR MOST OVER THE
WEEKEND, WHICH WOULD HELP IMPROVE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. AS
THE STORM COMPLEX SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND AWAY, A TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MARK THE BACK EDGE OF OUR PRIMARY RAIN OPPORTUNITIES, MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEHIND THE FRONT, A SUBSTANTIAL
COOLDOWN APPEARS ON TAP; HIGHS EARLY NEXT WEEK LIKELY FALL INTO
THE LOWER 80S F FOR MOST WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S F
AND LOWER 60S F ACROSS THE AREA. /86/SW/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 92 64 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 90 61 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 93 65 92 68 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 92 62 92 67 / 0 0 10 0
NATCHEZ 94 66 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 93 66 94 68 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 92 63 93 65 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
LP/EC
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