100
FXUS64 KJAN 190525
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1225 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS A
CONCERN THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL EXPECTATIONS IN THE
FORECAST AND HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS MAINTAINED
WITH NO CHANGES.
OUR AREA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE, WHICH WILL TEND TO SUPPRESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION INTO
NEXT WEEK AND REDIRECT LARGER SCALE SYSTEMS TO THE EAST. THAT
SAID, MOISTURE DOES REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION, SO A POPUP SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT BUT MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. HEAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNDER WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL REINFORCE AN 850
THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. FURTHER, THE LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF MAY ACT TO FURTHER REINFORCE RIDGING OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS IT SLOWLY MOVES WEST SOUTHWEST JUST
OFFSHORE. DESPITE CHANCES FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT 60%,
STEERING FLOW AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WILL REDIRECT THIS SYSTEM AWAY
FROM OUR AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTER WHICH AN UPGRADE TO HEAT WARNING IS
LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WILL
MAINTAIN HEAT MESSAGING WITH AN AREAWIDE "ELEVATED" FOR NOW AND
WILL LIKELY ADD CORRESPONDING "SIGNIFICANT" HEAT STRESS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN FUTURE UPDATES.
THE TREND HAS BEEN INCREASINGLY TOWARDS PEAK HEAT FOR WEDNESDAY
DUE TO COMPRESSION AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY POISED TO DRAG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALSO COULD STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE PINE BELT BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHICH REINTRODUCES SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS EAST OF
I-55. THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE IS MOVING INTO A VERY UNSTABLE
MOIST AIRMASS, SO CANNOT RULE OUT A STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE STORM IN
THIS REGIME AREAS EAST OF I-55. WILL CONTINUE TO ADJUST POP
UPWARDS TO 15% IN AREAS EAST OF I-55 TO AT LEAST MENTION AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN WX.
A SPOKE OF JET ENERGY WITHIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW LOOKS TO
FURTHER WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL LEAVE THE
DOOR OPEN TO SOME SORT OF ORGANIZED, LIKELY EASTERLY, MCS. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN FUTURE UPDATES. /SAS/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
ISOLATED SHRA OR TS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY
OVER EAST MS, BUT PROBABILITIES OF OCCURRENCE WERE TOO LOW AT ANY
GIVEN TAF SITE TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WIND. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 96 76 97 75 / 0 10 10 0
MERIDIAN 97 75 97 76 / 20 20 30 10
VICKSBURG 96 76 97 77 / 0 0 10 0
HATTIESBURG 98 76 98 76 / 20 20 40 10
NATCHEZ 97 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 97 77 98 77 / 0 0 10 0
GREENWOOD 98 75 98 76 / 10 10 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025-034>036-
040>043-047>050-053>066-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ008-009-016-024>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ075.
SS/DL
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