703
FXUS64 KJAN 161119
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
619 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A VARIETY OF IMPACTS TO THE
AREA AS WE GO THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
- STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO PRECEDE AND FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- MUCH COLDER AIR MOVING IN TODAY WILL BRING A SIGNIFICANT HARD
FREEZE THREAT TO MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK:
LOCAL RADAR SCANS FROM THE KDGX RADAR CURRENTLY SHOW A LINE OF
STRONG SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE PINE BELT EARLY THIS MORNING.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RACE EAST OUT OF FORECAST AREA BEFORE
SUNRISE TODAY, WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST MS. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE REMAINS A POSSIBILITY OF
SEEING SOME BRIEF SNOW SHOWER/FLURRIES IN A VERY SHORT WINDOW (1 TO
2 HOURS) ON THE BACK END OF THIS COLD FRONT, INDICATIVE OF COLDER
AIR OUTRUNNING PRECIP EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO OCCUR
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTFUL AND WILL BE BRIEF.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON PERIOD, WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
QUIET ACROSS OUR CWA. REGARDING THE WIND THREAT FOR TODAY, STRONG
GRADIENT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS GREATER
THAN 40 MPH ACROSS THE DELTA REGION GIVEN THE STRONG MIXING (UP TO
10 KFT) IN THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE TO THE WIND GRAPHIC FOR TODAY AND A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
AFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S AREAWIDE.
CONCERNING THE FREEZE THREAT: IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A POLAR
SURFACE HIGH WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS, AND WILL PROMOTE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT, WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SIGNIFICANT TO EXTREME FREEZE THREAT
REMAINS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE RECENT
RECORD WARMTH (E.G., WARMEST START TO MARCH ON RECORD AT JACKSON,
MS), AND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ALSO EXPECTED SUNDAY AHEAD OF THIS
FREEZE. IMPACTS TO UNPROTECTED VEGETATION ARE EXPECTED. AND, WITH
MORE LOW TEMPERATURES NOW FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
TUE MORNING, THERE WILL ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO EARLY SEASON
FRUIT CROPS. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS IN COLDER GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE FREEZE ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
FREEZE WARNING FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WE SHOULD START TO SEE
MUCH WARMER TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH SHIFTS OUT OF OUR REGION.
THEREAFTER, A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RISE BACK
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S BY
FRIDAY. A STRONG MIDLEVEL HIGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA WHICH WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /CR/SAS/EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS LARGELY PREVAIL, WITH A WINDOW THIS MORNING OF MVFR
CEILINGS IN THE EAST. THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CARRY
AVIATION IMPACTS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TODAY OUT OF THE
NORTH WEST AROUND 25KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 48 27 52 34 / 20 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 49 27 53 30 / 30 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 50 27 54 35 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 53 29 56 33 / 20 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 51 28 56 35 / 20 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 45 27 50 38 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 47 25 51 35 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
035-040-041.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MSZ026>033-036>039-
042>066.
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
ARZ074-075.
CR/CR/SAS20
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