566
FXUS64 KJAN 151158 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
658 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- A SIGNIFICANT DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS,
WORSENED FIRE DANGER AND WILDFIRE CONCERNS TO THE AREA TOMORROW
ON FRIDAY.
- VERY LITTLE, IF ANY, RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THROUGH EARLY MID NEXT WEEK (WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY: MORNING SURFACE AND GOES EAST WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATE MEAN RIDGE AROUND 592-594DM CENTERED OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES. DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN
92-96F RANGE AND LOWS AROUND 60 DEGREES IN EAST MS TO MID TO UPPER
60S IN CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST DELTA) WILL PERSIST. ADDITIONAL
RECORD HIGHS COULD TIE OR BE ECLIPSED TODAY. THERE REMAINS
EFFICIENT AFTERNOON MIXING/LOW HUMIDITY INTO CRITICAL LEVELS (25
TO 35 PERCENT RANGE) FOR CONTINUED ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WHICH
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S TODAY. THE POSITION OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A
SOUTHEASTERLY FETCH OF RETURN FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT.
LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY): FALL
FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS LIKELY FRIDAY. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER
THE ROCKIES WILL PHASE WITH DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS/UPPER JET DIVING
INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO MID MS
VALLEY. THIS WILL HELP AN AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL AND POSITIVELY TILTED
TROUGH. STOUT, DRY COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 30S (36-45F). CANNOT RULE OUT A ROUGE SHOWER BUT
OVERALL MAJORITY AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. COOL DOWN REMAINS LIKELY
THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM FRIDAY (72-78F IN THE
DELTA AND 83-91F IN SOUTHEAST OF THE DELTA), WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S (61-66F) THAT MORNING AND LOWS THAT NIGHT MID TO UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 (45-50F) TO MID TO UPPER 50S (50-
53F) TO THE SOUTH. WITH CONTINUED DROUGHT STRESSED VEGETATION, THIS
STRONG GUSTY FRONT WILL LIKELY INCREASE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE DELTA AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY,
INTERSTATE 20 AROUND MIDDAY AND OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING.
1030-1040MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE LEE
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE MID WEST, LEADING TO 6-8MB PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND RESULTANT GUSTY GRADIENT WIND OF 20-25MPH SUSTAINED AND
WIND GUSTS REACHING 30-35MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL BE A CONCERN, SO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY FIRE RELATED HEADLINES. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A DAY 2 ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55. THERE WILL EFFICIENT MIXING BUT
HUMIDITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY, SO ELEVATED GRAPHIC
STILL FITS AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH DIGS
ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND CUTS OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD,
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL AMPLIFY, WITH THE AXIS OVER THE
ARKLATEX. SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT FALL TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD
AREAWIDE INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY (HIGHS OF 69-74F SATURDAY AND 70-
78F SUNDAY AND LOWS OF 41-45F NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TO 46-50F TO
THE SOUTH). QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST NEXT WEEK, WITH AN
OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPING (TROUGH OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA AND
SOUTHWEST US AND ANOTHER JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST). LOW LEVEL
RETURN FLOW AND DEEP DRY MOISTURE PROFILES WILL LEAD TO MODERATING
TEMPERATURES (LOW 80S EARLY WEEK TO MID TO UPPER 80S BY LATE WEEK)
AND LOWS BECOMING MORE SEASONABLE. WITH CONTINUED DROUGHT, STRESSED
VEGETATION AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY NEARING CRITICAL LEVELS BY MID
WEEK (25 TO 35 PERCENT), FIRE DANGER WILL LIKELY PERSIST. HOLDING
OFF INTRODUCING ANYTHING FOR NEXT WEEK. /DC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES, WITH SOME IFR/LIFR
STRATUS/DENSE FOG APPROACHING HEZ. ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
LAST THROUGH AROUND 15/14-15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ADDITIONAL
IFR/LIFR STRATUS/DENSE FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
AFTER 16/09-10Z FRIDAY. /DC/22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 92 64 86 50 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 91 63 88 49 / 0 0 0 10
VICKSBURG 92 63 82 49 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 92 61 91 51 / 0 0 10 0
NATCHEZ 92 63 84 50 / 0 0 10 0
GREENVILLE 93 64 75 48 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 94 63 78 47 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ059>062.
LA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ024-026.
AR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
DC/22
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