439
FXUS64 KJAN 090250 AAB
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
950 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING HEAT STRESS LATE THIS WEEK
AND WEEKEND.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS
LINGERING NOW MAINLY OVER EAST MS. ONLY UPDATE PLANNED FOR THE
NEAR TERM IS TO ADD PATCHY FOG ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH AND EAST MS
AND CENTRAL LA GIVEN LOCALIZED HREF PROBABILITIES IN THE 15 TO 35
PCT RANGE AROUND DAYBREAK. NO OTHER NOTEWORTHY ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE
MADE AT THIS TIME. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
NEAR TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TROUGH PUSHING EAST OUT OF
OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION WILL TRACK EAST OVER OUR CWA. A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF OUR
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR
FROM THE WEST ALLOWING FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. THIS
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TO DIP
INTO THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA LOOKING AHEAD INTO TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. ANOTHER ROUND OF QUIET WEATHER IS IN THE
FORECAST TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW/MID 70S.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
PLEASANT SUNNY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
THE CLEAR SKIES AND PERSISTENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL CAUSE AFTERNOON
HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW 90S FOR BOTH DAYS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE ON
THE RISE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE
TRIPLE DIGITS MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-55. AREAS EAST OF
I-55 WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S.
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD
PARTICULARLY FOR THE FRIDAY-SUNDAY TIMELINE GIVEN THE RELATIVE CLOUD
FREE CONDITIONS, INCREASING TEMPERATURES, AND HUMID BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE RECENT ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL. CURRENT
AFTERNOON GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT HEAT INDICES/WBGT AND THE
OVERALL HEAT RISK WILL PEAK FRIDAY-SUNDAY WHEN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE LOW/MID 90S AREAWIDE, WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
BEGINS TO POOL OVER THE AREA. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON MESSAGING FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT FOR NOW GIVEN THAT THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR HEAT TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND. ONCE THE PEAK HEAT THREATS BEGIN TO SHOW UP WITHIN THE DAY
4 FORECAST RANGE, THAT SHOULD BE A GOOD TIME TO ACT ON AND MESSAGE
FOR THEM IN EARNEST.
LOOKING DOWN THE ROAD, AS WE FINISH UP THE WEEKEND AND GO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A SIGNIFICANT TREND WAS NOTED IN THE LONGER TERM GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR UNSEASONABLY STRONG WESTERLIES TO BE
SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THIS HINTS AT AN ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE PATTERN THAT WOULD BE RATHER ANOMALOUS FOR MID JUNE, SO
WOULD RECOMMEND MONITORING THIS TREND AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, BUT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED TSRA WAS RESULTING IN BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN A
FEW LOCALES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY MORNING,
BRIEF FOG IS POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH MS. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 92 73 93 / 20 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 72 93 72 93 / 20 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 74 93 75 92 / 10 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 71 92 71 93 / 10 10 0 0
NATCHEZ 73 94 74 93 / 20 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 75 93 76 93 / 10 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 75 94 75 93 / 10 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/CR
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