317
FXUS64 KJAN 271852
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
152 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO VERY DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY EACH DAY.
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND.
- AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO
NEXT TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY FRIDAY,
BUT A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL BRING
BACK CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR FORECAST AREA. A
WEAK UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING TO OUR NORTHWEST TODAY HAS
GENERATED LIGHT RAIN ACROSS WESTERN ARKANSAS AND SOME CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT THE IMPACT OF THE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HAS MAINTAINED DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR CWA.
TODAY'S MID-70S HIGH TEMPS AND NEAR-50 LOW TEMPS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER.
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PIVOTING THROUGH A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW A NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE WITH
MINIMAL SURFACE REFLECTION AS THE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. IT WILL BE DEEP AND SLOW
ENOUGH THAT SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEAR 65 DEGREES WILL ADVECT NORTHWARD
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE. WHILE SOME OF THE
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MAY BE MORE OF A TOP-DOWN
PROCESS DRIVEN BY THE MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS, A MOISTENING AND WARMING
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY SUPPORT MORE SURFACE-BASED AND
ELEVATED CONVECTION HEADING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. GFS MLCAPE
VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF OUR AREA
WHICH IS A NOTABLE RETURN OF INSTABILITY THAT HAS BEEN LACKING IN
RECENT WEEKS. CORRESPONDINGLY, THUNDER CHANCES AND QPF VALUES HAVE
INCREASED ALONG WITH POPS. LIGHT RAIN COULD BE ONGOING EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. ACROSS THE CWA, THERE ARE NOW
MEDIUM (50-60%) CHANCES FOR RAIN DURING THE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT PERIODS. TRICK-OR-TREAT PLANS SHOULD ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF RAIN OR THUNDER IN THE AREA. THE SHORTWAVE AXIS WILL
BE SLOW TO DEPART, WITH 20-40% POPS LINGERING INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
A BRIEF REBOUND IN SHORTWAVE RIDGING AFTER THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WILL
LOWER RAIN CHANCES UNTIL TUESDAY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME RAIN IN
THAT TIME. THE WEST COAST TROUGH SHOULD BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND
AND THE OVERALL PATTERN BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEEPENING OUT OF THIS TROUGH IS THEN EXPECTED TO DIG AND SPIN
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY IN THE WEEK. TIMING AND SPACING OF
THE FEATURES IS UNCERTAIN FOR THAT KIND OF PATTERN THIS FAR OUT, BUT
IT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE
REGION. MORE ROBUST GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS SUPPORT A COLD FRONT SQUALL
LINE SCENARIO ON TUESDAY. EXPLICIT INSTABILITY VALUES ARE LOW THIS
FAR IN ADVANCE, BUT GREATER MOISTENING (DEW POINTS OVER 65) AND FLOW
RESULTING IN BETTER WIND SHEAR MAY BRING A CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OR EVEN SEVERE WEATHER TO OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY. /NF/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 48 82 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 45 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 51 84 50 85 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 46 83 45 84 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 53 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 50 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 49 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/SAS20
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