327
FXUS64 KJAN 110520 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1220 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS IS LIKELY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A PATTERN FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 718 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
REST OF THIS EVENING...
THE REGION REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF MEAN RIDGING AT THE
ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, WITH DRIER AIR AROUND THE GULF REGION
(PRECIPITABLE WATER GENERALLY AROUND OR LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES).
WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION, WARM AND SUNNY
SKIES IN PLACE AS THE PREDOMINANT WEATHER REGIME. OTHER THAN
SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD AROUND, A WARM AND DRY EVENING WILL BE ON
TAP. THIS IS KEEPING SEASONABLY WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S AND SOME HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THIS WILL WIND DOWN
AFTER SUNSET AND INSOLATION WANES. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP
HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND SEASONABLY WARM LOWS
ON TAP, SOME 4F TO 10F ABOVE (70F TO 74F SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ
TRACE WHILE 75F TO 77F TO THE NORTHWEST). UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURES INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL MOSTLY STAY SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL KEEP THE
HUMIDITY HIGH, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT. ALL THE WHILE,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S,
PERHAPS UPPER 90S IN SPOTS. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL MORE THAN
LIKELY BE REACHED AND A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION LEAVES SUNDAY MORE
UNCERTAIN, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN EXTENSION INTO SUNDAY AS WELL FOR
SOME OF THE AREA. THE ACCOMPANYING HEAT GRAPHIC HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
INCLUDE AN AREA OF ELEVATED.
BY MONDAY, A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS DIGS AND IMPINGES ON THE
RIDGE. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXACT TIMING OF THIS FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. A LARGE PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE WITH PWAT AROUND 2.5
INCHES SURGES NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE, AND POOLS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR TRAINING
CONVECTION, WHILE THE RICH MOISTURE SUPPORTS VERY EFFICIENT RAIN
RATES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS UPPER ASCENT WITH OUR AREA SITUATED
BENEATH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MIDLEVEL JET. CONSIDERING
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, ASCENT, AND
POTENTIALLY MULTIPLE SURGES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE, THERE IS
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LIMITED GRAPHIC FOR FLOOD
AT THIS TIME AREAWIDE TO GET AHEAD ON MESSAGING. ADJUSTMENTS WILL
BE MADE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MAY PUSH SOUTH OR MAY STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA JUST BEYOND THE PERIOD MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD
DECREASE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. TIMING WINDOW OF GREATEST CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME IS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /SAS/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A BRIEF PERIOD 10Z-13Z OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AT HBG AND PIB, VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 94 76 94 / 0 10 10 30
MERIDIAN 74 95 75 94 / 0 20 10 50
VICKSBURG 76 93 77 93 / 0 10 10 20
HATTIESBURG 73 94 75 94 / 0 10 10 30
NATCHEZ 75 95 76 95 / 0 10 10 10
GREENVILLE 78 92 76 93 / 20 40 30 20
GREENWOOD 77 93 75 94 / 20 50 40 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-
019-025-034-035-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ009-
016-024>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ075.
DC/SAS20/22
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