665
FXUS64 KJAN 251124
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
624 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY.
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BUILD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS
WEEKEND AND WORSEN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
EVENTUALLY TOPPING 110 DEGREES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS OUR REGION THIS MORNING,
AND REGIONAL RADARS INDICATE A STRING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SCATTERED ALONG THE ZONE FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA TO WESTERN FLORIDA
AT THIS HOUR. A RIBBON OF MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR (3000+ J/KG OF
SBCAPE AND 1.9 INCH PW) WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL, BUT NEITHER ORGANIZED FLASH FLOODING NOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY WITH STORMS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MID-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED
DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION TOMORROW INTO THE WEEKEND, AND THE
SUBSIDENT EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE SHOULD LIMIT RAIN CHANCES AND
EXACERBATE HEATING. HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE
NEAR 105 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT
THE EXPANDING RIDGE WILL HELP HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH AND
EXCEED 110 DEGREES IN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO MID NEXT WEEK. THE CORE OF THE RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
THROUGH THIS TIME, AND EASTERLY FLOW ON ITS SOUTHERN EDGE WILL BRING
SOME MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BACK TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE GULF
COAST TUESDAY AND LATER. /NF/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MULTIPLE TAF SITES DUE
TO A LOW STRATUS DECK AND PATCHY DENSE FOG. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
LOW THROUGH 14Z. AFTER 14Z, CONDITIONS WILL BEING TO IMPROVE TO A
MIXTURE OF MVFR/VFR. BY 16Z, CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO
VFR. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF IN VISIBILITY. BY THURSDAY
EVENING, VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 90 72 92 74 / 60 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 89 72 93 74 / 50 20 0 0
VICKSBURG 91 73 91 75 / 50 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 91 73 94 75 / 50 30 0 0
NATCHEZ 92 73 92 74 / 10 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 89 73 90 76 / 60 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 89 73 92 75 / 60 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ040>043-
047>066-072>074.
LA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LAZ009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...NONE.
NF/CR
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