816
FXUS64 KJAN 021831
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
131 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
- COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL ACROSS
THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, AHEAD OF A STALLED
COLD FRONT TO OUR WEST, AND ALOFT PERSISTS. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FURTHER SATURDAY, AND AGAIN SUNDAY, WHEN THE PRESENCE OF
A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL BE MOST OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS, COUPLED WITH ADDED ASCENT FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL JET JUST TO
OUR NORTH, DAYTIME HEATING, AND EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WILL
BRING ABOUT THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
DESPITE THESE HIGH RAIN CHANCES, THE WEEKEND WON'T BE A WASHOUT.
CONVECTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL NOT BE ORGANIZED. IT'LL BE
MORE IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE ADVERTISED 48-72 HOUR QPF
ACROSS THE CWA IS A LITTLE MISLEADING. WHILE SOME LOCALIZED PLACES
COULD INDEED SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE OVER THE
WEEKEND, GENERALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY, THESE HIGH AMOUNTS WILL BE ISOLATED AND
NOT WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE QPF SUGGESTS. THAT BEING
SAID, IN THESE LOCALIZED AREAS THAT INDEED SEE CONVECTION WHERE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OCCUR IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND/OR TRAINING OF
SUCH CONVECTION, AND POTENTIALLY OBSERVE THOSE HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS A RESULT, THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST IN THIS FRONT'S WAKE. THESE QUIET AND
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. /19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THIS SHOWERS WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, WHILE PERSISTING AT GLH AND GWO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VERY LOW STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 88 69 81 / 20 60 70 80
MERIDIAN 69 86 69 79 / 20 50 80 90
VICKSBURG 70 87 68 81 / 20 50 70 70
HATTIESBURG 70 84 70 81 / 30 80 80 90
NATCHEZ 70 87 68 81 / 20 70 70 70
GREENVILLE 69 87 67 81 / 10 40 60 60
GREENWOOD 69 89 67 82 / 10 40 70 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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