332
FXUS64 KJAN 130122 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
822 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- "MARGINAL RISK" (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FOR THE
ENTIRE PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.
- "LIMITED THREAT" (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLASH FLOODING INTO
TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH IS YIELDING MORE SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO THE VERY HUMID AND
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION, IN ADDITION TO SOME STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (6-6.3 C/KM), ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
CAN BOTH BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF TODAY'S CONVECTION, AND HAVE
ADDED A LIMITED THREAT HWO GRAPHIC TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL PEAK ALONG THE I-20
CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. I
WHILE THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY WASHOUT, DUE TO THE
OVERALL TROUGHING/LOW PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE REGION, COMBINED
WITH THE CONTINUED HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EACH DAY, SOLID
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST INTO AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. WHILE SEVERE STORMS CURRENTLY AREN'T FORECAST
AFTER TODAY, GIVEN THE AGAIN OVERALL SETUP ACROSS THE REGION, A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME INTENSE ENOUGH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO
PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS. ONCE AGAIN, BOTH HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY CONVECTION.
FINALLY, THURSDAY INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND, RIDGING ALOFT WILL
AGAIN REASSERT ITSELF OVER THE REGION. WHILE THIS WILL LESSEN THE
OVERALL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, THE TRADE-OFF
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A RETURN TO HOT HUMID CONDITIONS AS HIGHS
AREAWIDE EVENTUALLY CLIMB BACK INTO THE MIDDLE 90S SATURDAY. THIS
ALSO CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BRING BACK SOME CONCERN FOR INCREASED HEAT
STRESS YET AGAIN DURING THIS EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 818 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE US HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR WILL
BRING PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS TO
THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 03Z. DECREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDER
AFTER THIS TIME, WITH LINGERING MOISTURE INCREASING CHANCES FOR
LOW STRATUS AND MVFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA
AFTER 18Z MONDAY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 72 87 71 87 / 80 60 50 60
MERIDIAN 72 88 70 86 / 80 60 60 80
VICKSBURG 72 88 71 88 / 60 60 30 50
HATTIESBURG 74 84 72 87 / 30 70 30 70
NATCHEZ 72 86 71 88 / 50 80 20 60
GREENVILLE 72 90 72 88 / 50 20 20 50
GREENWOOD 72 90 71 89 / 30 40 40 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/NF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page