637
FXUS64 KJAN 190235 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
935 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THE RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WILL TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION.
- DRY WEATHER WILL RESUME SUNDAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
MID EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT NEARLY ALONG THE
NATCHEZ TRACE. THIS COLD FRONT HAS KNOCKED TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO
THE 50S AND MORNING LOWS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER, IN THE 40S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. LOCAL RADARS SHOWED PLENTY OF ANAFRONTAL
PRECIPITATION WHICH WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BUT, NOT END IN OUR SOUTHEAST UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE.
OVERALL, THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER HAS DIMINISHED AND TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN EXPECTED. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THROUGH NEXT WEEK: A BRIEF WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT
HAS BEEN DOMINATING OUR WEATHER WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SINK
INTO OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL BRING A ROUND OF
RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND UPPER
FORCING WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
LAPSE RATE/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A SUBSEVERE WIND GUST. 12Z JAN
SOUNDING INDICATES A LAYER OF REMNANT DRY AIR IN PLACE JUST ABOVE
850, INDICATIVE OF LESS THAN IDEAL MOIST TRAJECTORIES. SO, WHILE
THERE WILL BE RAIN (YAY!), THERE WON'T BE MUCH, AS EXPECTED TOTALS
ARE AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
COULD BE LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE RATES,
LIKELY NORTHWEST, BUT DON'T GET YOUR HOPES UP. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST, RAIN AND STORMS LOOK TO BECOME
ANAFRONTAL. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO DIMINISHING STORMS OVERNIGHT AND
INCREASED STRATIFORM RAIN. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST.
CLOUDS WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT AS VERY DRY AIR USHERS IN. THIS
WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY AROUND 10 MPH WINDS. IT IS TOO SOON TO
TELL HOW THE RAINFALL WILL MODERATE RH, BUT FIRE THREAT WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY, DESPITE THE WIND AND DRY
AIR, SHOULDN'T BE A CONCERN CONSIDERING THE RAINFALL.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BECOMES
REESTABLISHED. IT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR BY REDIRECTING MOIST
TRAJECTORIES WESTWARD AND DEFLECT ENERGY AWAY FROM THE AREA. THINGS
LOOK TO CHANGE LATER IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW EJECTS FROM THE
WEST AND BECOMES PHASED WITH THE POLAR JET. THE SUBTROPICAL JET
NOSES IN CREATING A SPLIT FLOW REGIME. THIS LEADS TO BROAD UPPER
DIFLUENCE OVER THE REGION AND SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS IS CERTAINLY GOOD NEWS AS THIS LOOKS TO
CONTINUE EVEN BEYOND THE PERIOD. WHILE FLOW IS PERTURBED, IT IS TOO
SOON TO TELL HOW THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL INFLUENCE ANY POTENTIAL
SEVERE CHANCES. /SAS/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
NUMEROUS -SHRAS WL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MVFR CIGS AND A GUSTY NW WIND OF 20-25KTS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT. THE -SHRA WL END AND CIGS WL IMPROVE
FROM THE NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE
ONCE THE SE IMPROVES BY 09Z. A GUSTY NE WIND 18-22KTS WL REDEVELOP
BY 15Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTN BEFORE SUBSIDING BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 49 72 45 78 / 80 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 47 71 44 78 / 80 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 48 72 45 78 / 70 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 51 72 45 80 / 70 20 0 0
NATCHEZ 50 72 46 78 / 70 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 48 71 48 77 / 50 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 47 72 46 79 / 60 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/22
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