380  
FXUS64 KJAN 221759  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
1259 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAF DISCUSSION:  
SITES AROUND THE REGION WILL BE IMPACTED BY TSRA, RA,AND LOW CIGS  
THROUGHOUT THE 24 FORECAST PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH  
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MVFR CONDITIONS  
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH OUT THE DAY BUT SOME SITES MAY DROP TO IFR  
BRIEFLY AS STORMS BEGIN TO MOVE IN. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE  
FROM THE NORTH THEREFORE, SOME SITE CAN SEE GUSTY WINDS IN THE  
MORNING. ALSO, SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERN  
PART OF THE REGION JUST BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING./JNE/  
 

   
DISCUSSION
 
 
CURRENT REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A SURFACE FRONT  
CROSSING INTO ARKANSAS AND TENNESSEE FROM THE NORTH WITH SOME  
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, REACHING  
INTO NORTH MS AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO  
EXPAND IN COVERAGE AS IS CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTH INTO OUR  
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY AS TEMPERATURES INCREASE AND UPPER LEVEL  
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO DECREASE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT LATE THIS  
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME OTHER STORM ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING  
TO KICK OFF ALONG THE GULF COAST. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO ALSO  
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT BEINGS TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN  
PORTIONS OF OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ON TRACK TO REACH  
THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 BEFORE STORMS BEGIN TO IMPACT THE  
REGION.  
 
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:  
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT: WHILE MID LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, AN ABNORMALLY STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG  
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MS AND OH VALLEYS TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE COLD  
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL DIVE ANOMALOUSLY FAR SOUTH  
INTO AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WHILE  
AIRMASS CONVECTION WILL GET UNDERWAY BY LATE MORNING OVER THE AREA,  
CONVECTION WILL INCREASE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS BY MID AFTERNOON AS  
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE ACTUAL COLD  
FRONT LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE TROUGH SOME HUNDRED MILES OR SO. GIVEN  
THE TIME OF DAY, SOME STORMS MAY BECOME ROBUST OVER NORTHERN  
PORTIONS, BUT LACK OF SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP  
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS MINIMAL. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH SOMEWHAT  
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING MOVING INTO THE EVENING, BUT STORMS WILL  
CONTINUE TO FESTER ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT./GG/  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS  
PROGRESSION THROUGH THE CWA TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS LINGERING FOR A  
BIT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE CONVECTION WILL CLEAR MOST OF THE AREA  
BY TUESDAY EVENING. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BE USHERING IN COOLER AND  
DRIER CONDITIONS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT SO THAT DEWPOINTS  
WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE  
MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION,  
TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL RISE ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, ALMOST 10  
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. CONTINUED CAA ON WEDNESDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS  
IN THE MID 80S. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME  
THROUGH ABOUT FRIDAY OF THIS WEEK WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN  
THIRD OF THE US AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN TWO- THIRDS.  
BY FRIDAY, THE TROUGH BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE  
AGAIN. THEN, BY SATURDAY, SURFACE FLOW IS OUT OF THE SOUTH,  
MOISTURE INCREASES, AND DEWPOINTS WILL BE BACK IN THE 70S. CHANCES  
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE BEGINS  
TO BUILD EAST. /10/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 90 72 83 64 / 43 53 52 4  
MERIDIAN 90 73 84 64 / 36 51 56 18  
VICKSBURG 89 72 83 65 / 41 45 33 2  
HATTIESBURG 87 73 84 66 / 58 43 67 26  
NATCHEZ 89 72 81 65 / 53 47 46 7  
GREENVILLE 90 70 82 64 / 60 70 15 0  
GREENWOOD 88 70 83 63 / 60 76 20 1  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
JNE  
 
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