159
FXUS64 KJAN 132143
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS INTO THE 10
TO 20 DEGREE RANGE AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
BY FAR, THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE FORECAST CONCERNS THE
ARCTIC AIR INTRUDING UPON THE FORECAST AREA AS WE FINISH UP THE
WEEKEND AND MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL MESSAGING FOR THIS
HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THIS MORNING, BUT WITH
INCREASED CONFIDENCE AND FOLLOWING COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORS, WE
HAVE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY.
FOR THIS EVENING: SCATTERED WARM ADVECTION SHOWER ACTIVITY AHEAD
OF THE ARCTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONSOLIDATE AND BRING LIGHT
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A FEW AREAS OF FOG MAY FORM AGAIN EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, BUT WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING IN QUICKLY, WOULD EXPECTED THIS TO BE A SHORTER TERM EVENT
AND NOT AS IMPACTFUL AS WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING.
FOR THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD QUICKLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEND TO GUSTY NORTH WIND,
AND ULTIMATELY LEAD TO WIND CHILL READINGS APPROACHING 10.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT TO BELOW
FREEZING NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR, AND SOME READINGS WILL NOT
CLIMB MUCH IF ANY ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY ALONG/NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY
82 CORRIDOR.
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE COLD IS NOT THE MOST
INTENSE WE'VE EVER SEEN, BUT IT IS MAKING A FAST TRACK FROM THE
ARCTIC AND NOT MODIFYING MUCH AS IT CROSSES EXTENSIVE SNOWPACK.
MOREOVER, THE TRAJECTORY OF THE HIGHEST PRESSURES THROUGH THE
LOWER MS VALLEY IS MOST IDEAL FOR COLD ADVECTION. THE BOTTOM LINE
HERE IS THAT WE'LL "GET OUR MONEY'S WORTH" FROM WHATEVER THIS COLD
AIR MASS CAN BRING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT AROUND
DAYBREAK MONDAY IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20, THEN BEGIN A SLOW BUT
STEADY CLIMB MONDAY AS THE AIR MODIFIES AND COLD ADVECTION SHUTS
DOWN. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SITTING OVERHEAD MONDAY NIGHT, ANY
WARMTH THAT ACCRUES MONDAY SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEPARTING UNDER
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND, SO LOOK FOR LOWS TO DROP BACK WELL
BELOW FREEZING THEN.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED WITH READINGS GETTING ABOVE NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WITH THE DEVELOPING WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF AN APPROACH COLD FRONT. WEATHER IMPACTS
OVERALL DO NOT LOOK SIGNIFICANT AT THIS POINT, BUT MAY NEED TO
MONITOR FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AHEAD OF THE LATE WEEK
FRONT. /EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TAF SITES DUE TO STRATUS CLOUD DECK
AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. SHRA CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AREAWIDE
BY 22Z SATURDAY LEADING TO MULTIPLE SITES SEEING A COMBINATION OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL BE IN MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY. AFTER 14Z, CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA BY 16Z SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED BY 05Z SUNDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A TIGHTENED GRADIENT LAYING THROUGH
THE AREA. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 35 42 21 46 / 60 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 34 41 19 46 / 70 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 31 39 21 44 / 60 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 44 52 22 49 / 80 20 0 0
NATCHEZ 36 44 22 48 / 70 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 26 32 19 39 / 20 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 26 36 18 43 / 40 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.
LA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
ARZ074-075.
EC/CR/OAJ
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