197
FXUS64 KJAN 191212 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
712 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
- MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
- HEAT ADVICE WILL BE ISSUES FOR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY:
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
OVERNIGHT RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COUNTIES HAVE
PROMPTED A FEW FLASH FLOOD WARNING/EMERGENCY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN COUNTIES (JEFF DAVIS, COVINGTON, AND JONES COUNTIES).
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR ALONG
WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COURSE OF FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS, TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BRING HEAT INDICES NEAR 115 IN
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY WITH ACCOMPANIED
GRAPHICS WILL BE ISSUED. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA. DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED HAIL IS EXPECTED WITHIN SEVERE STORMS. FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE OF CONCERN, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE PINE BELT AS STORM
TRAVERSE OVER AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED 3-4+ INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR.
WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTERACT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CAM MODELS
SUGGEST THE FORMATION OF COUPLE OF MCSS NEAR TX/AR THAT WILL HEAD
TOWARDS OUR AREA. WITH THE PREVIOUS RAINFALL, SATURATED SOIL, AND
STORM TRAINING, FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE OVER AZ/NM AND NORTHERN MEXICO AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO REGION WILL SET UP THE NEXT CHANCES FOR
RAIN. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OVER
OUR CWA WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF WET WEATHER FOR THE DURATION OF
WEEK. CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER,
NOTHING HAS BEEN OUTLOOKED AT THIS TIME. /SW/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HIGH SHRA CHANCES
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, IN ADDITION KEEPING LOW CEILINGS AND SOME
AREAS OF FOG AROUND TODAY (MAINLY NEAR GLH TO GWO). EXPECT
IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR BY MID-MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY/CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL OCCUR AS EARLY AS 19/13-15Z, GENERALLY IN CENTRAL TO
SOUTHEAST TAF SITES AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. SHRA AND TSRA
COULD BRING LOWERED VISIBILITY AND/OR CEILINGS AND RESULTANT
FLIGHT CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS TO IFR/LIFR AT TIMES. EXPECT LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SHRA AND
TSRA COVERAGE WILL WIND DOWN INTO THE EVENING, GENERALLY AFTER
20/00-03Z SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL LOWERED CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AFTER 20/08-10Z WITH SOME SHRA AND TSRA REDEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 87 73 87 73 / 90 70 90 50
MERIDIAN 86 72 85 72 / 80 60 80 40
VICKSBURG 87 74 87 74 / 90 70 80 40
HATTIESBURG 90 75 88 74 / 80 80 70 50
NATCHEZ 91 75 89 75 / 70 70 70 50
GREENVILLE 87 73 86 73 / 70 50 80 40
GREENWOOD 89 72 87 73 / 80 60 80 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ040>066-072>074.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ053-054-059>064-072-073.
LA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ009-015-016-
023>026.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ023>026.
AR...NONE.
SW/DC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page