835
FXUS64 KJAN 171735
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1235 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019
UPDATE
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
AVIATION
18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /27/
DISCUSSION
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MAINLY SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE IN THE UPPER
90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER
100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN PORTIONS OF THE WEST, PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEAR 105 DEGREES. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE. /27/
PRIOR DISCUSSION BELOW:
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF OUR
CWA WILL BE THE RULE AGAIN TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE NORTH
AND SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE NORTHEAST WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER OUR
REGION AND WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION. A DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO WAS STILL HELPING TO MAINTAIN HIGHER
MOISTURE ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS BY MID MID AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE
PWATS WERE RUNNING LESS THAN AN INCH AND A HALF WITH THE DRIEST AIR
OVER OUR NORTHEAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL AGAIN TOP OUT MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING THE CENTURY MARK. PEAK HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER 100S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT
IN THE WEST WHERE THE AIRMASS IS MOISTER, HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 105F FOR SEVERAL HOURS SO WL HIGHLIGHT THIS AREA WITH A LIMITED
FOR HEAT STRESS IN OUR HWO. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING AND
ANOTHER WARMER THAN NORMAL NIGHT IS EXPECTED. /22/
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AS A STEEP UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
INTACT OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL REACH THE UPPER 90S, APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS AT SOME SITES.
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW STALLS NEAR
THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE VALUES WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED STORMS AND
SHOWERS WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ON
THURSDAY AND THE LOWER 90S ON FRIDAY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO DAMPEN AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE
WEEKEND, ALLOWING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY TO ATTEMPT TO RESOLVE THE IMPACTS,
IF ANY, THIS FRONT WILL HAVE ON OUR REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 98 72 98 73 / 3 3 5 6
MERIDIAN 98 70 99 72 / 1 1 3 4
VICKSBURG 99 72 98 73 / 6 3 9 8
HATTIESBURG 97 72 98 72 / 4 3 10 6
NATCHEZ 95 72 94 72 / 14 6 19 10
GREENVILLE 98 72 98 73 / 2 1 5 6
GREENWOOD 98 71 98 73 / 1 0 2 4
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
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