379
FXUS64 KJAN 201144 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
644 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE
TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS.
- DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD SWAY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. WITHIN THE DRY AIRMASS, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S INCREASINGLY COMMON
THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND, A SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, RESULTING IN A WEDGING EFFECT AROUND THE
APPALACHIANS, WILL BEGIN TO CUT IN TO DAYTIME HIGHS SOMEWHAT.
MORNING LOWS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.
FIRE WEATHER WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARILY CONCERN OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEK, GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY GROUND CONDITIONS/FUELS (DAILY MAX
ERCS IN THE 90TH+ PERCENTILE) WITH RHS FALLING BELOW 30 PERCENT
EACH AFTERNOON AND AT TIMES FALLING INTO THE TEENS. THE SAVING
GRACE PREVENTING A MORE CRITICAL SITUATION WORTHY OF RED FLAG
PRODUCTS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT WIND EACH DAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP
CONTROL SPREAD OF FIRES THAT DO DEVELOP. NEVERTHELESS, CAUTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE EXERCISED WITH ANY OUTDOOR BURNING OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HEED LOCAL BURN BANS, WHICH CONTINUE TO BE
ADDED IN NEW AREAS. IF WE BEGIN TO SEE SIGNS IN LATER FORECASTS
OF STRONGER WIND ON ANY UPCOMING DAYS, MESSAGING MAY NEED TO BE
ELEVATED ACCORDINGLY. /DL/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR 6-8 KTS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. /SW/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 82 50 85 50 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 79 47 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 82 49 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 84 47 86 47 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 82 50 84 49 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 79 50 81 50 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 80 48 82 47 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/SW
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