813
FXUS64 KJAN 240903
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
403 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AND
WORSEN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
H-O-T. A STRONG, ZONALLY ORIENTED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE US
SOUTH FEATURES 500MB HEIGHTS TO NEAR 600 DAM, ESPECIALLY
PRONOUNCED FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST. HEIGHTS OVER OUR REGION ARE NEAR SEASONAL MAXIMUM VALUES,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CONTINUED SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 90S. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETREATS NORTHWARD TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAS
TURNED OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
STILL, WESTERN 2/3RDS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL SEE HEAT INDEX
VALUES TOP OUT AROUND 105 DEGREES AGAIN.
AS THE RIDGE COMES TO AMPLIFY OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL CONUS THIS
WEEKEND, TROUGHING WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND FLOW
ALOFT WILL TURN MORE SHARPLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WILL BE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO NORTHEAST
OR EASTERN MOST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. RAIN CHANCES NEXT WEEK ARE
LIMITED BY THE RIDGE ALOFT, BUT A WAVE MAY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
MID WEEK AND TRIGGER SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAT AMPLIFYING BENEATH THE RIDGE. TODAY
AND TOMORROW'S "LIMITED" HEAT STRESS WITH 105 HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL YIELD TO "SIGNIFICANT" HEAT STRESS WITH ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE BOARD IN THE 110
TO 115 RANGE. AS ALWAYS, AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, PLEASE MAKE SURE
LOVED ONES, NEIGHBORS, AND PETS HAVE A COOL PLACE TO SPEND THE HOT
AFTERNOONS AND WARM NIGHTS. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
ALL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 0524Z. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARE THROUGH 10Z. AFTER 10Z,
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP TO MVFR STATUS AS A STRATUS CLOUD DECK
MOVES INTO THE AREA. MOST TAF SITES WILL SEE MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH
15Z. AFTER 15Z, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR. VFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SITES AFTER 16Z AND WILL CONTINUE
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA AND TSRA
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 19Z AT GWO, GTR AND MEI THAT COULD RESULT IN
LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 94 75 94 75 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 94 75 94 75 / 10 10 10 10
VICKSBURG 94 76 94 76 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 96 75 97 76 / 0 10 0 0
NATCHEZ 96 75 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 94 76 95 76 / 10 0 10 0
GREENWOOD 94 75 94 75 / 10 10 30 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/CR
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