784
FXUS64 KJAN 041735
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1235 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MUCH NEEDED RAIN SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
- A BRIEF COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRY WEATHER
RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT:
A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO TONIGHT. ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS BACK TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A MOIST AND DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR
EXISTS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AND A BROAD SWATH OF
RAIN HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. CLOUD COVER ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA IS SLOWLY BREAKING UP LATE THIS MORNING, WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE AVAILABLE FOR EARLY SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS LACKING AT THE CURRENT TIME, SO ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL
BE LOOSELY ORGANIZED TO START. EVEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR
AREA THIS EVENING, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
ORGANIZATION. OUR INITIAL STORM ACTIVITY TODAY FOR MONITORING IS
DEVELOPING AROUND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SHOULD SPREAD NORTH THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND
EAST THROUGH INSTABILITY, WITH THE CONSENSUS OF HIGH-RES GUIDANCE
HAVING THE LINE TO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT OR A
LITTLE AFTER. WITHOUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT IS MARGINAL. BY THE TIME STORMS MAKE IT TO OUR
SOUTHEAST, THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ENDING, BUT SOME
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY:
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST TOMORROW, COOLER
AND DRIER AIR BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, WHICH
IS A RELIEF FROM RECENT VERY WARM LATE MARCH/EARLY APRIL TEMPS. THE
RELIEF WON'T STICK AROUND TOO LONG. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE
EAST AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUMP TEMPS TO AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEK. LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL
FAVOR DRY AIR REINFORCING FROM THE EAST MOST OF THE WORK WEEK.
THERE'S SOME HINT AT RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
OUR CWA AROUND NEXT THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
/NF/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2026
AS OF 1735Z, MULTIPLE TAF SITES ARE SEEING A MIX OF VFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND 16-20KTS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA AND A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NW THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN VCTY OF GLH BY 21Z AND BE NEAR PIB-HBG BY
07Z. THE -RA AFTER FROPA WL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM THE NORTHWEST
BUT CIGS WL LOWER BACK TO IFR/LIFR BY 10Z SUNDAY. POOR FLY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 15Z SUNDAY.
CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO A MIX OF VFR/MVFR BY 18Z SUNDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA BY 21Z SUNDAY. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 55 69 48 70 / 100 30 0 0
MERIDIAN 57 70 48 69 / 100 60 0 0
VICKSBURG 53 69 48 71 / 100 20 0 0
HATTIESBURG 63 73 51 70 / 90 70 10 10
NATCHEZ 54 70 50 70 / 100 40 0 0
GREENVILLE 50 67 47 70 / 100 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 52 69 47 73 / 100 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/NF/CR
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