943
FXUS64 KJAN 200532
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1232 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE, WITH DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS A
CONCERN THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
'HOT' WOULD BE THE PERFECT WORD TO DESCRIBE THE OVERALL FORECAST
PERIOD. DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN
STARTING OFF THE NEW WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WE WENT AHEAD
AND EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO COVER THE REST OF OUR CWA THROUGH
9PM THIS EVENING.
AFTERNOON GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL HELP SUPPRESS COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR CWA AND KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THAT IN MIND, THERE DOES REMAIN SOME MOISTURE WHICH COULD
LEAD TO A FEW BRIEF POP-UP SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EAST MS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE LATER THIS EVENING.
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE MID 70S.
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA LOOKING AHEAD INTO
MONDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS LOCKED IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECASTED TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL CAUSE HEAT INDEX
VALUE READINGS TO REACH ABOVE 105 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
FOR THIS REASON, THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER THE
REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST AR AND ALL
OF OUR NORTHEAST LA PARISHES. FURTHERMORE, SEVERAL AREAS ALONG THE
DELTA COULD SEE HEAT INDICES IN EXCESS OF 110 DEGREES. A
"SIGNIFICANT" RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT HAS BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE DELTA. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR BOLIVAR MS, SUNFLOWER
MS, LEFLORE MS, WASHINGTON MS, HUMPHREYS MS, AND CHICOT AR HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR MONDAY. THE HEAT
ADVISORY/HEAT WARNING WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY GIVEN INCREASING HEAT TRENDS. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
THAT THE HEAT WARNING COULD BE EXPANDED FURTHER SOUTH HEADING INTO
TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE DAY FOR PEAK HEATING ACROSS MUCH OUR
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO COMPRESSION AND MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARDS
ACROSS THE AREA. THIS AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE WILL MOVE INTO AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS, SO A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-55 WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
A SPOKE OF JET ENERGY WITHIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW LOOKS TO FURTHER
WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN
TO SOME SORT OF ORGANIZED, LIKELY EASTERLY, MCS. THIS WILL HAVE TO
BE MONITORED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
REGARDING THE TROPICS, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY
TRACKING TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH-
NORTHWEST ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. THE STEERING FLOW ALONG THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL REDIRECT THIS SYSTEM AWAY FROM OUR AREA. ALTHOUGH NO
TROPICAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, SEVERAL AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HWY
84 COULD SEE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH SOME STORMS AS THIS SYSTEM
TRACKS ALONG THE GULF. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY
DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK. /CR/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON JUL 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH FEW CLOUDS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT EASTERN
SITES SO PROB30 WAS INCLUDED. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD
DIMINISH LATER IN THE EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 97 77 97 76 / 10 10 10 0
MERIDIAN 97 76 97 76 / 10 10 10 0
VICKSBURG 97 78 98 79 / 10 0 10 0
HATTIESBURG 98 77 97 78 / 20 10 30 0
NATCHEZ 98 77 99 77 / 10 10 10 0
GREENVILLE 98 78 99 79 / 10 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 98 76 99 77 / 20 10 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ026>033-036>066-072>074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-035.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ARZ075.
CR/CR/SAS20
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