165
FXUS64 KJAN 271137 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
637 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS PERSISTS INTO MID-WEEK.
- "EXTREME HEAT WARNING" AND "HEAT ADVISORY" IN EFFECT THROUGH
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TONIGHT: HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN THE MAIN CONCERN IN
THE NEAR TERM. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED
THE CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE 597DAM HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE
HIGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED A
DISTURBANCE DROPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS HAS RESULTED IN CONVECTION NEARING NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ALREADY. THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRACK JUST
EAST OF OUR CWA BUT DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, SOME OF THE
CONVECTION MAY SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA TODAY.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TOGETHER HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100F IN SPOTS.
A "HEAT ADVISORY" REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS INDICES RANGE BETWEEN 106F-110F. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS CURRENTLY ACROSS BOLIVAR, SUNFLOWER, & LEFLORE COUNTIES WHERE
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 110F. HERE, AN "EXTREME
HEAT WARNING" IS IN EFFECT TODAY. /22/
A "HEAT ADVISORY" REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS INDICES RANGE BETWEEN 106F-110F. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS CURRENTLY ACROSS BOLIVAR, SUNFLOWER, & LEFLORE
COUNTIES WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 110F.
HERE, AN "EXTREME HEAT WARNING" IS IN EFFECT MONDAY. IN ADDITION, ON
THE LATEST PACKAGE, CONFIDENCE IN INDICES CLIMBING ABOVE 110F HAS
INCREASED ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF THE CWA FOR TOMORROW.
THEREFORE, WE'VE EXPANDED THE "EXTREME HEAT WARNING" OVER SOME
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOMORROW, WITH A "HEAT
ADVISORY" IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN ITS PRESENCE ACROSS REGION
AS IT RETREATS WESTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST
COAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS
HAPPENS, ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SINK SOUTH INTO
THE CWA. THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA,
POTENTIALLY BRINGING AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE HEAT. ONE
THING OF NOTE DURING THIS TIME, WHILE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL INCREASE, THE INCREASED NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION COULD YIELD AN MCS OR TWO AFFECTING THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS STILL MANY DAYS OUT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED IN FUTURE MODEL DATA, AS WE DRAW NEAR TO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
LOCAL RADARS SHOW A WEAKENING LINE OF -SHRA THAT MAY COME IN VCTY
OF GTR BY 13Z. THIS WL ALSO RESULT IN LOW CHANCES OF -SHRA/-TSRA
COMING IN VCTY OF THE EAST TAF SITES TODAY AND RESULT IN LOWER
FLIGHT CONDITIONS BUT, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OTHERWISE. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 97 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 99 77 99 77 / 10 20 0 0
VICKSBURG 97 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 98 78 99 78 / 10 10 0 0
NATCHEZ 97 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 98 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 99 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ026>066-072>074.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ028>033-
037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-060>066-072>074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-
025.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ018-
019-025>027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
22/OAJ/22
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