640
FXUS64 KJAN 150546
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1246 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO BE THE
MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SYNOPTICALLY FAVORABLE FLASH FLOOD CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN
EXPECTED. A TROPICAL MOIST AIRMASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE WITH PWAT
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AS OF THIS EARLY MORNING. THE JACKSON METRO
AREA ALREADY SAW HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG A
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUNDAY EVENING. THIS IS A PREVIEW OF
WHATS TO COME FOR THIS WEEK. CURRENTLY, MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A
FAVORABLE AREA NEAR THE JACKSON METRO WITH POSITIVE THETA E
ADVECTION ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. A CORFIDI VECTOR
"RIDGE" IS PRESENT, WITH SLOW CORFIDI VECTORS AND UPWIND VECTORS
THAT FAVOR BACK BUILDING. THIS SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE AN ELEVATED TO
THE FLASH FLOOD GRAPHIC AT THIS TIME FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ROUGHLY THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT,
INCLUDING THE JACKSON METRO.
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN RAIN, AND CERTAINLY HEAVIER RAIN,
LATER WEDNESDAY AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES, WITH REINFORCED SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IN ADVANCE OF A TROPICAL GULF LOW. THE AFOREMENTIONED
FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL,
LIKELY THURSDAY FOR OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL CARRY WITH IT A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 2.3-2.5 INCH PWAT. GIVEN
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THIS ADDITIONAL ROUND WOULD LIKELY EXACERBATE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE GREAT AMOUNTS
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT FLASH FLOOD MESSAGING TO
BE FINE TUNED AND EXTENDED INTO LATE WEEK AS WE GET CLOSER.
THERE LOOKS TO BE POTENTIALLY AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN FRIDAY FOR THE I-
20 CORRIDOR IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY ONCE
AGAIN BECOMES A FOCUS FOR TRAINING CONVECTION. DETAILS STILL NEED TO
BE IRONED OUT, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A SIGNIFICANT WILL BE
NEEDED FOR A TARGETED AREA THAT MAY GET IN ON ALL ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAIN THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
THE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH LIKELY WILL NOT PUSH OUT ENTIRELY. THE SLIGHTLY "DRIER" AIR
IN ITS WAKE, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTH OF I-20, SHOULD PROVIDE SOME BREAK
FROM THE RAINFALL, WITH COVERAGE OVERALL MORE SCATTERED BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THAT SAID, AIRMASS CHANGE IS INSIGNIFICANT, AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND RAIN CHANCES DONT GO AWAY
COMPLETELY. HOWEVER, THE AIRMASS MAY BE MORE SEASONAL WITH LESS DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE. SOTUHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
REINFORCE THE WETTER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. /SAS/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY LOW
STRATUS, A MIX OF VFR/MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE FORECAST AT AREA
TAF SITES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION AROUND DAY BREAK, AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A PREDOMINATE MIX OF MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES AT SITES DURING
THIS TIME, DUE TO DEGRADATIONS IN BOTH VISIBILITIES AROUND
CONVECTION, AND OVERALL LOW CEILINGS. WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL BE CALM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY, LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AROUND 3 KNOTS IN
ITS WAKE, AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND 3 KNOTS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THESE WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING, TO BETWEEN 5-8
KNOTS. /19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 80 70 81 71 / 100 80 90 30
MERIDIAN 81 69 80 70 / 100 80 90 50
VICKSBURG 80 70 82 71 / 100 80 80 10
HATTIESBURG 84 72 79 71 / 90 90 100 50
NATCHEZ 81 71 81 72 / 90 90 100 20
GREENVILLE 80 67 84 70 / 60 30 30 10
GREENWOOD 81 67 85 70 / 60 40 30 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR MSZ040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.
LA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page