294
FXUS64 KJAN 260905
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONTINUES TODAY AND WILL WORSEN THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
NEAR TERM. EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE
CIRCULATION AROUND A LARGE 598DAM HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. OUR CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE
HIGH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE DISTURBANCES WERE NOTED
DROPPING AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH. ONE SUCH DISTURBANCE
WAS OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING AND LOCAL RADARS
SHOWED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING AS THE
DISTURBANCE SHIFTS EAST OF MISSISSIPPI. EARLY MORNING SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. TOGETHER HIGH
PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OUT A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN ON SATURDAY. THIS HEAT WILL COMBINE
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 105F OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. OUR NORTHWEST WILL SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES GREATER THAN
110F. THERE WON'T BE MUCH RELIEF FROM THE HUMIDITY TONIGHT. A RECORD
WARM LOW TEMPERATURE WAS TIED AT GREENVILLE SATURDAY WITH SEVERAL
CLIMATE SITES COMING WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SETTING OR TYING A
RECORD FOR WARM MORNING LOWS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
WELL. /22/
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, HIGH LEVELS OF BOTH HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL YIELD A LENGTHY PERIOD OF DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S ON
MONDAY, AND UPPER 90S TO JUST ABOVE 100F TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THESE TEMPERATURES, IN ADDITION TO DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, WILL
RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AT AND ABOVE 106F ACROSS THE
CWA.
AS A RESULT, THE "HEAT ADVISORY" FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 9 PM MONDAY WITH INDICES BETWEEN 106-110F FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF HOURS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ACROSS BOLIVAR, SUNFLOWER,
& LEFLORE COUNTIES WHERE AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL CLIMB
ABOVE 110 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. HERE, AN "EXTREME HEAT WARNING" HAS
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY.
AS THIS DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS INCREASES MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK, A
CONTINUATION OF THE "HEAT ADVISORY" INTO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED,
WITH FURTHER EXPANSION OF THE "EXTREME HEAT WARNING" ACROSS THE CWA
LIKELY. THIS WILL BE MESSAGED IN THE LATEST HWO GRAPHIC. HOWEVER AT
THE MOMENT, AN ASSESSMENT OF THE LAYOUT AND CONTINUATION OF HEAT-
RELATED PRODUCTS WILL BE MADE ON A DAILY BASIS. THEREFORE, PLEASE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE MOST UP-TO-DATE
INFORMATION.
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, NEXT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH ALOFT WILL WEAKEN ITS PRESENCE ACROSS EASTERN
PORTION OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST
COAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. AS THIS HAPPENS,
ANOTHER SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO SINK SOUTH INTO THE CWA.
THUS, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA AND POSSIBLY BRINGING
AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF TO THE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD...THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT./19/22/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 95 76 97 76 / 10 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 95 76 99 76 / 20 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 95 77 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 96 77 99 77 / 0 10 10 0
NATCHEZ 96 76 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 97 77 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 97 75 99 76 / 10 0 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
MSZ026>066-072>074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR MSZ018-019-025.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
ARZ074-075.
22/19/22
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page