071
FXUS64 KJAN 090009
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
709 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE MOVING
NORTHWARDS TOWARDS A LANDFALL TOMORROW EVENING ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.
- GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING RELATED TO THE
HURRICANE ISAIAS MAY IMPACT OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER DANGER REMAIN INCREASED TODAY AND FRIDAY IN
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AHEAD OF ISAIAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 507 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF HURRICANE ISAIAS
APPROACH TO THE GULF COAST. BREEZY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH
HOT/DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN THE CENTRAL GULF,
EVENTUALLY TURNING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE AL/FL COASTLINE OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISAIAS HAS STRENGTHENED TO 100MPH SUSTAINED
WINDS WITH THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IMPROVING AND PRESSURE
(975MB) CONTINUING TO DEEPEN. GOES EAST INFRARED IMAGERY CURRENTLY
INDICATE SOME INCREASING SHEAR BUT A DEEP BURST OF CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN SIDE. CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY EAST OF AREA, MAKING LANDFALL IN THE FL PANHANDLE JUST
EAST OF THE AL/FL STATE LINE. THIS LANDFALL LOCATION WILL KEEP
GREATEST IMPACTS FURTHER EAST. HOWEVER, TIGHTENING GRADIENT ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE DECAYING SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL OF
WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS (REFS/HRRR) AND PROBABILITIES (REFS PROBS >40MPH)
INDICATE POTENTIAL OF STRONGER GUSTS IN EAST-CENTRAL MS UP THE
INTERSTATE 59 INTO HIGHWAY 45 CORRIDOR AND POTENTIALLY FURTHER
WEST INTO THE JACKSON METRO TO DELTA REGION WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS
LOCK IN AS THE SYSTEM IS EAST-NORTHEAST OF US IN CENTRAL AL INTO
THE DAY SATURDAY. TROPICAL STORM WIND PROBS ARE IN THE LOW
CATEGORICAL RANGE (10 TO 30 PERCENT) BUT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ADDED
TROPICAL HEADLINES. FOR THIS REASON, A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS
ADDED FOR FORREST, JONES, JASPER, NEWTON, NESHOBA, WINSTON,
NOXUBEE, KEMPER, LAUDERDALE AND CLARKE COUNTIES THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POTENTIAL IN NORTHWARD
EXPANSION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH INTO OKTIBBEHA, CLAY TO
LOWNDES COUNTY OR ANY UPGRADES TO A WARNING. AN ELEVATED WAS ADDED
EARLIER AREAWIDE TO THE HWO GRAPHIC FOR GUSTY WINDS, JUST DUE TO
THAT BETTER SUPPORT IN THE CAMS AND HIGH- RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE WIND
PROBS FOR GUSTY WINDS.
FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECTED TOTALS ARE 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN IN NORTH
CENTRAL, NORTHEAST TO EAST MS WHILE LESS IN THE 1-3 INCH RANGE IN
NORTHWEST, CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST MS. THIS IS ALSO DUE TO WARM CLOUD
PROCESSES/TROPICAL RAIN. AS ISAIAS PROGRESS CLOSER, ADDITIONAL
UPDATES WILL BE PROVIDED SO PLEASE REMAIN UP TO DATE WITH THE
LATEST INFORMATION.
ONCE THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS PROGRESS AWAY FROM THE AREA, HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
/DC/SW/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR PREVAILS. CALM WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS
AS HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE ISAIAS GRADUALLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA. UPON ITS APPROACH TO THE COAST, EASTERLY WINDS WILL
STEADILY INCREASE FROM 3-5KTS UPWARDS TO 15-17KTS. AROUND NOON
WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 18KTS, AND BY THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD, 7 PM, WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BE GUSTING TO 30+KT. THE
STORM WILL BEGIN TO COMPLICATE AIR TRAVEL WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE SOUTHEAST LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. -RA MAY
ALSO ACCOMPANY THE GUSTY WINDS AND MAY LEAD TO MVFR CEILING AT HBG
AND PIB. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 62 88 62 72 / 0 0 80 90
MERIDIAN 61 84 60 73 / 0 10 90 90
VICKSBURG 61 91 62 73 / 0 0 50 70
HATTIESBURG 64 85 61 76 / 0 30 90 50
NATCHEZ 63 89 63 75 / 0 0 50 60
GREENVILLE 62 92 64 72 / 0 0 50 80
GREENWOOD 63 92 61 71 / 0 0 70 100
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR
MSZ026>033-038-039-046-052-058.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MSZ038-039-045-046-051-052-057-058-066-
074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/SW/SAS20
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