852
FXUS64 KJAN 131705 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1105 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
- MOST NIGHTS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING THIS WEEK.
- WE ARE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
EVENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 944 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE EAST CONUS WILL HELP KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET AND DRY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION. SKY CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS A QUICK LOOK AT GOES 16
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK INTO THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AREAWIDE. /CR/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE LARGELY SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AMID BROAD TROUGHING OVER EAST CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
FAIRLY DRY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. THE EXCEPTION IS WEDNESDAY AS A
BAJA LOW EJECTS, RESULTING IN WEAK MOISTURE RETURN. THEREFORE, RAIN
CHANCES SOUTH OF I-20 AROUND 20-30%. A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD
FRONTS MID TO LATE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN DRY AIR. CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR FREEZING/SUBFREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THAT
SAID, DANGEROUS COLD IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT
GTR MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR COLD HEADLINES. WILL KEEP POSTED IN
FUTURE UPDATES. WE START TO BREAK THE REGIME AROUND MID NEXT WEEK,
THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES AND
RESTORATION OF SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD BRING LOWS BACK ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GOLDEN
TRIANGLE (LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S), BY TUESDAY NIGHT. /SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE LIKELY THROUGH MAJORITY OF THE 18Z TAF
CYCLE. A DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS FOR SOUTHEAST TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR A COUPLE OF
HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS (14/14Z-18Z WEDNESDAY) FROM
AN APPROACHING FRONT AT GLH, GWO AND GTR. SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR (LLWS) UP TO 30 TO 35KTS AT 2KFT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TO
MID- MORNING FROM 14/07-14Z WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND
10MPH WILL TURN WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY NEAR THE END OF THE 18Z TAF
CYCLE AND GUSTIER INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 61 44 58 29 / 0 20 20 10
MERIDIAN 60 41 57 27 / 0 20 20 10
VICKSBURG 61 44 57 29 / 0 20 20 10
HATTIESBURG 62 43 63 33 / 0 40 10 10
NATCHEZ 61 45 61 32 / 0 40 10 10
GREENVILLE 61 43 54 27 / 0 0 40 0
GREENWOOD 61 43 54 26 / 0 0 50 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
CR/SAS20/DC
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