650
FXUS64 KJAN 081836
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
136 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK.
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EACH DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY: HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT LOCAL RADARS WERE SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED
GENERALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SEE
A DISTINCT DIURNAL TREND HOWEVER, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION
OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE NIGHT IN OUR NORTHWEST. LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS STILL SHOWED OUR CWA IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN A
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND TO OUR EAST. THIS WEAKNESS COMBINED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING OF OUR MOIST AIRMASS WAS LEADING TO THE
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WHERE CONVECTION HAS NOT DEVELOPED,
TEMPERATURES WERE CLIMBING IN THE 90S AND COMBINING WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY FOR HEAT INDICES CLIMBING IN THE LOWER 100S. PEAK HEAT
INDICES WILL TOP OUT NEAR 105F THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. THE WHOLE CWA IS EXPECTED TO SEE PEAK HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 105F SUNDAY ALONG WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN THAN
TODAY. /22/
BY MONDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH OVER OUR AREA THAT HAS ALLOWED FOR
GREATER COVERAGE OF RAIN AND STORMS SHOULD LIFT NORTH, RESULTING IN
A BROAD MIDLEVEL HIGH OVER THE REGION. THIS MEANS OUR WEATHER SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED DAY-TO-DAY, WITH ANY MODIFICATION COMING
FROM MESOSCALE FEATURES. AS THE MIDLEVEL HIGH STRENGTHENS AND
BECOMES CENTERED OVER OUR AREA, RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AND
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL INCREASE. WITH DECREASING STORM COVERAGE THROUGH
MID WEEK, HAVE INTRODUCED AN "ELEVATED" HEAT GRAPHIC MOSTLY FOR THE
DELTA, BUT INCLUDING THE JACKSON METRO AS WELL. THERE MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO BE A CORRESPONDING HEAT ADVISORY WHICH WILL BE EVALUATED IN
FUTURE UPDATES. THE HEAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
HAZARD GRAPHICS MAY BE ADJUSTED THROUGHOUT. /SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA WERE NOTED DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
AT 1730Z AND ISOLATED-SCATTERED -TSRA WL LIKELY AFFECT MOST TAF
SITES THIS AFTN. AWAY FROM TSRA, VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 94 74 94 / 10 40 10 30
MERIDIAN 74 93 74 92 / 10 40 20 50
VICKSBURG 73 93 74 94 / 20 40 10 20
HATTIESBURG 74 95 74 94 / 20 40 20 50
NATCHEZ 73 95 73 95 / 10 20 10 30
GREENVILLE 73 92 75 94 / 50 50 10 20
GREENWOOD 72 91 73 93 / 40 50 10 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/22
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