256
FXUS64 KJAN 200106 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
806 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING.
- THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT...
BROAD SCALE ASCENT, COMBINED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND THETA E
ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE, IS LEADING TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE AREA. MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION HAS STRUGGLED AND BEEN
MORE OF THE PULSE VARIETY. ANY STORMS THAT TAKE SOME NORTHERLY
PROPAGATION THE MOST FAVORABLY ALIGNED TO THE LIGHT SOUTHERLY MEAN
LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE A BROAD
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX (MCV) OVER THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TX,
WHICH IS DRIVING THE MOIST ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PROPAGATING COLD POOL. THIS IS KEEPING CONTINUED STORM ACTIVITY,
WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF COLLIDING BOUNDARIES WEST OF THE MS
RIVER WHILE MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE TO THE EAST. CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS (CAMS) CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS WILL SAG TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT, LEADING TO SOME STORMS
FESTERING THROUGH THAT PERIOD. REFS THUNDER PROBS PERSIST BUT
CONTINUE TO GO DOWNWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT TO 1AM, SO CONVECTION
SHOULD ONLY BE WEAKENING SHOWERS AS IT APPROACHES THE INTERSTATE
55 CORRIDOR, IF THAT. LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, WITH SOME
PATCHY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN THE PINE BELT AND SOME LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT THROUGH JUST AFTER DAYBREAK. UPDATES WERE SHIPPED OUT
EARLIER. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
IN THE NEAR TERM, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS DIMINISHED
SOME WITH MOST GUIDANCE SHOWING A MORE LIMITED SHEAR/THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT AS A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION MAKES
ITS WAY TOWARD NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. THE
SHEAR/BOUNDARY RELATIONSHIP IS LESS THAN IDEAL FOR GETTING SEVERE
WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM, HOWEVER, IF STORMS DEVELOP IN THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION DURING PEAK AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM, THEN THOSE STORMS COULD MOVE IN MORE FAVORABLE DIRECTION
TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND BRING SOME GUSTY
WINDS. WITH ALL OF THAT SAID, WE'VE REMOVED THE SLIGHT RISK AND
TRIMMED BACK THE MARGINAL RISK AREA SOME BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE.
LOOKING AHEAD, AN UNUSUALLY LONG DURATION OF WET WEATHER IS
SETTING UP FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AS A LARGE AND PERSISTENT
TROUGH TO RIDGE LONGWAVE PATTERN SETS UP OVER THE CONUS. IN THE
BIG PICTURE, THIS WILL BRING OUR REGION A STEADY STREAM OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES, AND MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATIONS THAT WILL PROVIDE
LIFT AND HELP INITIATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL.
GIVEN THAT PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY WILL BE HIGH, WE'LL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT AREAS WHERE DEEP
CONVECTION CAN PERSIST THE LONGEST.
SLU CIPS ANALOGS REVEAL SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ANALOGS FROM THE
HISTORIC ARCHIVES THAT SUGGEST A FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD EVOLVE
BASED ON OUR CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS, BUT THE DETAILS ARE TOO
UNCERTAIN AS OF NOW TO PROVIDE FORMAL MESSAGING. KEEP IN MIND THAT
WITH EACH DAY THAT ACCUMULATES SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A FLOOD THREAT. OTHERWISE,
IT APPEARS THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 20/06-08Z
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANYTHING LINGERING WILL BE SHOWERS AT MOST.
EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, GENERALLY MVFR, WITH MOST
RESTRICTIVE STRATUS AND SOME WORSE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS/FOG (IFR
TO LIFR) AT HBG AND PIB AFTER 20/09-13Z WEDNESDAY. IMPROVEMENTS
TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR AROUND 20/14-15Z, WITH SOME SHOWERS
REDEVELOPING BEFORE MIDDAY. MAJORITY OF RAIN AND STORM
REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER 20/19-21Z AND LAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 70 86 69 85 / 60 70 60 80
MERIDIAN 71 89 69 87 / 10 40 40 50
VICKSBURG 70 84 69 84 / 80 60 70 80
HATTIESBURG 70 90 69 87 / 0 50 20 60
NATCHEZ 71 85 70 85 / 70 60 60 80
GREENVILLE 69 83 68 82 / 90 70 60 90
GREENWOOD 70 84 68 84 / 80 80 60 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/EC
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