577
FXUS64 KJAN 301135
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
635 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND VERY WARM AIR WILL BRING A LIMITED FIRE DANGER THREAT
TODAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN BY LATE WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
A STRONG UPPER LOW IN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM OVER THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, SLOWLY FILLING AS IT DOES SO. AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LOW, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG IN OUR REGION, AND
THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF DRY BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. STRONG
MIXING WITH CRITICALLY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL SUPPORT A LIMITED
THREAT FOR WILDFIRES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GIVEN HOW
DRY IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY, WE WILL RESUME THE FORMAL FIRE DANGER
MESSAGING FOR TODAY.
A CHANGE TO A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL ANTICIPATED FOR
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
HELPS TO INDUCE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT,
WITH DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE EVENTUALLY INCREASING TO ANOMALOUS LEVELS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA (E.G., PRECIPITABLE WATER 2 TO 3 SD POSITIVE
ANOMALIES). GIVEN THE PROLONGED PRESENCE OF WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
ASCENT RELATED TO THE SUBTLE BUT PERSISTENT UPPER JET INFLUENCE AND
MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, THE FORECAST REFLECTS A LONG
DURATION OF HIGH RAIN CHANCES IN THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME.
WHILE PROSPECTS FOR A WET WEEKEND REMAIN HIGH, THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS
RELATED TO THIS UPCOMING WET WEATHER PATTERN ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN,
ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THAT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
SHIFT WEAKER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH PRESENCE AND STRONGER WITH THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER. BECAUSE OF THIS, HEAVIER
QPF HAS SHIFTED SOME CLOSER TO THE COAST AND BRINGS INTO QUESTION
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL. REGARDLESS OF THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL, GIVEN HOW DRY IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY, THE RAIN THAT DOES
FALL WOULD BE HIGHLY BENEFICIAL IN MOST CASES.
LOOKING AHEAD, DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR SHOULD SURGE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES THE PRIMARY
DRIVER FOR OUR WEATHER. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR PREVAILS WITH FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN UP AND DOWN THIS MORNING AT HBG, THEREFORE
ADDED A TEMPO THROUGH 13Z. LOW VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING AT HBG AND PIB ALONG WITH LOW STRATUS WITH A LOW
(20%) CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 69 92 70 / 0 0 40 10
MERIDIAN 92 67 91 68 / 0 0 40 10
VICKSBURG 93 69 92 70 / 0 0 30 20
HATTIESBURG 93 68 91 70 / 0 0 60 20
NATCHEZ 94 70 93 70 / 0 0 40 10
GREENVILLE 95 70 94 71 / 0 0 10 30
GREENWOOD 95 68 94 70 / 0 0 20 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/SAS20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page