209
FXUS64 KJAN 230016
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
716 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS A STORM COMPLEX MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL RETURN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
REMNANTS OF AN MCS IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THESE STORMS
TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WE ALREADY HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH A MARGINAL RISK OVER THE REMAINDER. A
SEVERE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BY SPC FOR MAINLY THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HI-RES
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING.
THE AXIS OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT STRETCHED OUT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THIS PATTERN. EXPECT HEAT, MARGINALLY SEVERE, AND AT LEAST ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING THREATS TO BE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY. THE CORE OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AND AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THAT FRIDAY MAY BE THE FIRST DAY IN WHILE WITHOUT ANY MENTIONABLE
RAIN CHANCES. DANGEROUS HEAT THREATS WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND.
/15/NF/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE AFTER 08-09Z AS LOW STRATUS/FOG IMPACTS
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 91 74 88 73 / 20 60 50 40
MERIDIAN 91 73 88 72 / 20 60 50 40
VICKSBURG 91 75 90 74 / 20 60 40 30
HATTIESBURG 93 75 92 74 / 0 10 40 20
NATCHEZ 92 75 92 75 / 0 10 20 10
GREENVILLE 89 72 85 72 / 60 50 40 50
GREENWOOD 89 72 87 71 / 60 60 40 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
15/NF/KP
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