009
FXUS64 KJAN 161828
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
128 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
US HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
- CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL KEEP SOME
FOG DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. 12Z HREF AND REFS
INDICATE SOME DENSE FOG PROBS (20 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 INTO THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR. PERSISTENCE ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG, BUT CONFIDENCE OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG
AND HEADLINE ADVERTISEMENT IS TOO LOW. THUS, WENT WITH A LIMITED HWO
GRAPHIC FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. SEASONABLE
WARMTH IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY (HIGHS AND LOWS SOME 8F TO
14F ABOVE). RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK IN THE WAKE INTO FRIDAY, WITH
DECENT PROBABILITIES (30 TO 60 PERCENT) OF REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90
DEGREES. LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM EACH NIGHT (62F TO 68F).
SATURDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK (WEDNESDAY): AMPLIFYING LONGWAVE
SYNOPTIC TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP AND DEVELOP A FRONT
MOVING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE WELL NORTH, INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO GREAT LAKES AND CANADA. COLD FRONT WILL BE
STRETCHED FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND MID WEST
STATES AROUND MIDNIGHT SATURDAY AND SINKING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
DAY. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL NOT MOVE IN UNTIL MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE, NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR
INTO LATE EVENING TO JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND MAINLY AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN THE INTERSTATE 59 TO HIGHWAY 84 TO 98 CORRIDORS. THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE (1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES)
TO BRING IN HIGH RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE (60 TO 85 PERCENT).
HOWEVER, LINE PARALLEL FLOW WILL LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND MAJORITY OF
RAIN AND SOME STORMS WILL BE ANAFRONTAL IN NATURE. THIS WILL BRING
BENEFICIAL RAINS, BUT LESS THAN AN INCH (0.4 TO 0.9 INCHES).
UNFORTUNATELY, IS WELL BELOW WHAT IS NEEDED TO MAKE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT IN THE PERSISTENT DROUGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE STORMS REMAINS ON THE LOW
SIDE.
ANOMALOUS SURFACE HIGH (1025 TO 1030MB) WILL DRIVE IN MUCH COOLER
AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL INTO LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
(I.E. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOW TO MID 40S
MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN LOW TO MID 70S THROUGH
TUESDAY). AS THE SURFACE HIGH GENERALLY MIGRATES EASTWARD, RETURN
FLOW OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE WILL HELP HIGHS MODERATE AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
ALL TAF SITES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING VFR CONDITIONS AS OF 1718Z.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 08Z. BY 09Z,
SEVERAL SOUTHERN SITES (HBG, PIB, HEZ) WILL SEE CEILINGS DROP DOWN
TO IFR/LIFR. LOW CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF SITES
THROUGH 14Z. AFTER 14Z, CEILINGS WILL START TO IMPROVE TO VFR. BY
15Z FRIDAY, MULTIPLE TAF SITES WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. /CR/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 64 88 63 83 / 0 0 0 30
MERIDIAN 61 88 60 85 / 0 0 0 10
VICKSBURG 64 88 64 83 / 0 0 0 40
HATTIESBURG 63 88 61 86 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 65 88 63 85 / 0 0 0 30
GREENVILLE 67 88 68 79 / 0 0 0 70
GREENWOOD 66 88 66 82 / 0 0 0 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/CR/
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