578
FXUS64 KJAN 280531 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1231 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST INTO MID-WEEK.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO LIMIT HEAT STRESS
POTENTIAL LATER IN THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
AND ARKANSAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY: EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL REMAIN THE CHIEF FOCUS
THROUGH TOMORROW AS WE REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GULF. HEAT INDICES PEAKING ABOVE 105F WILL
BE COMMON AREAWIDE, WITH READINGS IN THE 110-115F RANGE POSSIBLE.
A COMBINATION OF HEAT ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING WILL
REMAIN VALID ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. ISOLATED DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTH MS, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND: BY WEDNESDAY, A BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL SINK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST, THEN STALL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WHILE THE FRONT ALONE WON'T
PROMISE RELIEF FROM THE HUMID CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
PARTS OF NORTH AND NORTHEAST MS WILL SEE LOWER, LESS OPPRESSIVE
DEWPOINTS DURING PART OF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WHAT MIGHT
PROVE MORE IMPACTFUL ON CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY ON WILL BE
INCREASING CHANCES/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ACROSS OUR AREA. HIGH
PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS/RAIN SHOULD HELP SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF HIGH
TEMPS IN MANY AREAS, HELPING TO KEEP HEAT INDICES IN CHECK IN
MORE AREAS. WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WE WILL SEE POTENTIAL FOR
ONE OR TWO CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVING INTO THE AREA OR DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH THAT AN ACTUAL FRONT
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSH INTO THE AREA
AROUND THE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH PROGRESS THIS FRONT WILL MAKE
THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE STALLING, BUT DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE FRONT, IT WILL LIKELY KEEPING HIGHER THAN AVERAGE RAIN
CHANCES AROUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
BEFORE CLOUDS AND RAIN BEGIN TO IMPACT THE HEAT, PORTIONS OF
SOUTH/WEST MS AND NORTHEAST LA WILL LIKELY STILL FACE HIGH HEAT
STRESS INTO THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS MAY NEED
TO BE EXTENDED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE AREA. /DL/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 77 96 75 94 / 0 10 30 30
MERIDIAN 78 96 74 94 / 0 30 20 20
VICKSBURG 78 97 77 94 / 0 10 30 40
HATTIESBURG 78 98 77 94 / 10 20 40 60
NATCHEZ 76 98 76 94 / 0 10 20 60
GREENVILLE 78 95 75 94 / 10 20 20 10
GREENWOOD 77 95 73 95 / 10 30 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ028>033-037>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-060>066-
072>074.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>043-047>049-
053>055-059.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
DL/22
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