016
FXUS64 KJAN 080005
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
705 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT (LIMITED TO ELEVATED) WILL RETURN LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT: FOR THIS AFTERNOON AT LEAST, THE FORECAST
AREA IS GETTING A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN, BUT A SEMI-ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NORTH MS IS
DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD, AND OUTFLOW FROM THIS SYSTEM THIS SHOULD
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR AS WE
APPROACH EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD DIMINISH
LATER THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
GOING INTO WEDNESDAY, WE MAY SEE GREATER DIURNAL STORM COVERAGE
WITH THE CONTINUATION OF CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LMV TROUGH.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND: RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THU-
FRI AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
ACCOMPANYING THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BE AN INCREASING HEAT DANGER
RISK WITH H850 TEMPS APPROACH 21 DEG C AND LOW LEVEL FLOW
DEVELOPING A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT. FOR NOW, WE WILL MESSAGE
THIS THREAT WITH A HEAT DANGER GRAPHIC, BUT EXPECT THAT A HEAT
ADVISORY WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A HAD A STRONG SIGNAL FOR A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE RIDGE AND SENDING A BOUNDARY
TOWARD OUR AREA IN THE MON-TUE TIME FRAME, AND THIS COULD SUPPORT
A SIGNIFICANT ROUND OR TWO OF CONVECTIVE RAINFALL. ALONG WITH
THIS, THE HEAT WOULD DIMINISH TO BELOW DANGEROUS LEVELS. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MINOR GROUND FOG EARLY ON
WEDNESDAY./15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 91 73 91 73 / 10 10 40 10
MERIDIAN 92 73 92 73 / 40 10 30 10
VICKSBURG 91 73 91 75 / 30 10 50 20
HATTIESBURG 93 74 94 75 / 30 20 30 30
NATCHEZ 92 73 93 75 / 30 30 30 20
GREENVILLE 91 73 91 74 / 30 10 40 10
GREENWOOD 91 73 92 74 / 40 10 40 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/15
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