471
FXUS64 KJAN 150016 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
716 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SIGNIFICANT THREAT THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT, AND AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK. SOME STRONG STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT TIMES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (596-598DM) PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASINGLY WARM THERMAL PROFILES
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION. RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN SQUASHED AND SHUNTED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST (PINE BELT)
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY LIMITED COVERAGE. THE HUMIDITY HAS
DROPPED SOME TODAY WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT (GOES EAST PWS AROUND 1.1
INCHES IN SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA). THIS HAS HELPED MIXING TO
BE A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENT IN SOME OF THOSE AREAS WHILE FURTHER TO
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST, HEAT CONCERNS. INHERITED HEAT GRAPHICS WERE
MODIFIED TO SINGLE OUT THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WHERE DANGEROUS
HEAT IS MORE LIKELY AS THE DRY LEVEL AIR MOVES THROUGH/DISSIPATES
AND LESS EFFICIENT MIXING AND HIGHER HEAT STRESS WILL BE A
CONCERN. THE WORST TIMEFRAME IS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
(SUNDAY-MONDAY), WHERE HEAT INDICES COULD EXCEED 110F. ADDED A
SIGNIFICANT TO THE HWO GRAPHICS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH SOME OF THE OUTLOOKED AREA NEEDING EXTREME HEAT
WARNING HEADLINES. THE FOCUS REMAINS ENOUGH OUT IN TIME TO HOLD
OFF INTRODUCING JUST YET. THE ONGOING HEAT HEADLINES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LIMITED RELIEF AT NIGHT. STAY
COOL AND HYDRATED AND CHECK ON VULNERABLE POPULATIONS AND NEVER
LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED IN HOT VEHICLES AS THESE CAN
BECOME LETHAL, AS QUICKLY AS A MATTER OF MINUTES.
SOME OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS
LIKELY EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK DURING THE WORST HEAT RISK
CONCERNS. THERMAL PROFILE CLIMATOLOGY (21C TO 25C AT 850MB)
INDICATE POTENTIAL ANALOGS INTO THE LOW 100S (101F TO 103F AND
MEDIAN AROUND 102F), WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES EXCEEDING THAT.
EVEN WITH THAT BEING SAID, SOME MIXING COULD OCCUR, WHICH IS
TYPICAL IN THIS ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT EXCEEDING 100F DEGREES.
RECORD TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME INTO THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
ONLY PERIPHERAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST MS SEEING SCARCE SHOWERS AND
STORM COVERAGE, MAINLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME RELAXATION OF
THE STOUT RIDGE WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE, INCREASED CONVERGENCE
FROM FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING SOUTHWARD MAY CAUSE SOME BETTER RAIN
COVERAGE INTO EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. WITH DANGEROUS HEAT, HIGH
HUMIDITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES, WILL HAVE TO MONITOR ROBUST STORM
POTENTIAL AS THIS TYPE OF THERMAL SETUP IS TYPICALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
ROBUST DIURNAL MICROBURST ACTIVITY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST MOST AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, OUTSIDE OF THE PINE BELT.
AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN INTO MID WEEK, STORM COVERAGE
WILL BECOME SCATTERED WITH HIGHS AND HEAT INDICES ONLY A TOUCH
LESS OPPRESSIVE. /DC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 75 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 76 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 74 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 76 101 77 101 / 0 10 10 20
NATCHEZ 75 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 76 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 74 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
DC/DC/LP
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