376
FXUS64 KJAN 161110
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
610 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
WEEKEND, BUT LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD HELP TO REDUCE HEAT STRESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY: AN UNUSUALLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH (H500
600 DAM, SD 3+) FOR LATE SEPTEMBER WILL BE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE
ON OUR REGION'S WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE RIDGE DOMINANCE WILL BE BRIEF INTERACTION
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL,
AND A FEW RECORD HIGHS COULD BE BROKEN, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORTUNATELY, IN TERMS OF
HEAT STRESS, INCREASED LOW LEVEL DRY EASTERLY FLOW AND STRONG
DAYTIME MIXING WILL RESULT IN LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND REDUCED
HEAT INDICES.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES WITH HOW
FAR WEST THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND IT'S SPHERE OF INFLUENCE WILL
REACH, BUT THE CONSENSUS AS OF NOW IS FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN
DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND. A
TREND TO MONITOR WILL BE LATE SATURDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH
INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. AS OF
NOW, WE ARE INDICATING VERY LIMITED RAIN CHANCES IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. LOW TO MEDIUM DIURNALLY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CAN BE
EXPECTED NET WEEK. /EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CALM WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS
MORNING./15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 96 73 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 96 70 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 96 73 95 68 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 95 70 93 66 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 97 73 95 67 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 99 74 99 71 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 98 73 98 70 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025>037-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
/15
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