570
FXUS64 KJAN 261039 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
539 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THIS MORNING, AND PERHAPS AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING FIRE DANGER THREAT FOR SATURDAY.
- MOSTLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
A MOSTLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE IN OUR REGION
THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, THANKS IN LARGE PART TO A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS.
CONCERNING DENSE FOG POTENTIAL: IN THE NEAR TERM, THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE FOR EARLY MORNING FOG, AND POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG
OVER SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS THERE THAT RECENT
GUIDANCE STRONGLY FAVOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE MORE HUMID
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH ADVECTION OF COASTAL FOG. HAVE MADE NO
CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS LIMITED/ELEVATED FOG THREAT AREAS IN THE
HWO GRAPHICS. ANOTHER GRAPHIC MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
CONCERNING FIRE WEATHER DANGER: A STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT WILL
MANAGE TO DROP IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND THEN PUSH THROUGH THE
ENTIRE REGION BY FRIDAY EVENING. ANY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND INCONSEQUENTIAL. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER DUE TO MUCH DRIER (MINIMUM RH <
25%) AND BREEZY CONDITIONS (PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH) FOLLOWING
THE FRONT AS WE GO THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE HAVE
INCLUDED AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT IN THE HWO GRAPHICS, AND
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE'LL EVENTUALLY NEED A RED
FLAG WARNING, ESPECIALLY IF MIXING OVERACHIEVES AND ALLOWS FOR
STRONGER WIND.
OTHERWISE, THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE BRIEF AS
WARM ADVECTION INCREASES AGAIN AND CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD HELP TO BOOST RAIN CHANCES, BUT ONLY FOR
DISORGANIZED, AND DIURNALLY ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH SHIFTS TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND BECOMES CENTERED NEAR
THE FL PENINSULA. EXPECT THE NEXT POLAR FRONT TO MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK WITH PERHAPS GREATER MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
/EC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 533 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2026
A LAYER OF STRATUS HAS MADE ITS WAY OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHER TAF
SITES COMING IN FROM THE GULF. AS SUCH WE HAVE A FOG GRAPHIC OVER
THE EFFECTED REGIONS. THE STRATUS LAYER IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
BY ABOUT 9AM THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH A THIN LAYER LINGERING FOR AN
HOUR OR TWO LONGER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. THE OTHER SITES ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO SEE ANY EXCITEMENT FOR THE PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF STRATUS FOR OUR SOUTHERN SITES
TOMORROW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 60 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 84 60 85 50 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 85 60 84 51 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 85 61 87 54 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 84 60 85 53 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 84 60 82 47 / 0 0 10 0
GREENWOOD 86 61 84 47 / 0 0 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/OAJ
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