327
FXUS64 KJAN 090812
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
312 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DROUGHT CONTINUE TO WORSEN ACROSS THE REGION.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO REINFORCE DRY AIR ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW. GIVEN THE DRY PATTERN AND BETTER MIXING SUPPORTED BY
THE RIDGE ALOFT, AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WERE LOWERED TO MATCH NBM
10TH PERCENTILE VALUES WHICH ARE CLOSER IN LINE WITH RECENT
OBSERVATIONS IN PEAK MIXING. THIS WILL PUSH AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH
VALUES TO AROUND 25-35 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE
A STEADY DRYING OF FINER DEAD FUELS, THOUGH MOST VEGETATION IS
UNDERGOING GREENUP ACROSS THE REGION. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
TODAY THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (WEDNESDAY)...
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND: ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS SURFACE
AND MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL LOCK IN DRY THERMO PROFILES (PWS
AROUND 0.5 TO 0.9 INCHES), KEEPING EFFICIENT MIXING LOCKED IN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP TO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE DAILY, WITH LIGHT EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND A TOUCH STRONGER ON SUNDAY.
FIRE DANGER COULD BECOME A CONCERN. SEASONABLE WARMTH IS ON TAP,
WITH HIGH TEMPS RISING INTO THE LOW 80S FRIDAY TO MID 80S BY
SUNDAY WHILE LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT WHILE MID 50S
TO LOW 60S BY SUNDAY MORNING. DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT STILL MIX OUT EFFICIENTLY EACH AFTERNOON.
NEXT WEEK (MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY): ACTIVE LONGWAVE JET ENERGY
WILL BE DRIVING A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS,
WHILE MID LEVEL AND SUBTROPICAL HIGH WILL KEEP DRYNESS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA AT THE START. SOME SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORM OR SO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA BEFORE DAYBREAK MONDAY
BUT MOSTLY REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. A FRONTAL ZONE MAY SAG INTO
THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK OR JUST AFTER ON THURSDAY, WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS. HOWEVER, THE LIKELIHOOD IS
DWINDLING AS THE REGION MAY RECEIVE A GLANCING BLOW TO EVEN
DEFLECTION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM ALTOGETHER. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
ON THE LOW SIDE FOR BENEFICIAL RAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ONLY EXACERBATE THE WORSENING DROUGHT AND POTENTIALLY AN UPTICK
IN FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE RISE EVEN WITH
THE CONTINUED DROUGHT. SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL CONTINUE, WITH HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WHILE LOW TEMPS NEAR 60 DEGREES IN
THE EAST TO MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA. /DC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU APR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 56 82 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 53 82 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 56 84 58 86 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 55 83 55 86 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 57 84 58 85 / 0 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 56 82 58 85 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 57 84 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/DC
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