315
FXUS64 KJAN 260353 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THANKSGIVING WEEK.
- HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BECOME A CONCERN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE DRY COLD FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF
OUR CWA. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
THIS EVENING BUT THIS FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE DRIER
AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
REGIONAL ANALYSIS SHOWED THE STRONGER REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR CWA WEDNESDAY, PUSHING INTO CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. MORNING LOWS WILL COOLER THAN NORMAL WEDNESDAY MORNING
THEN ANOTHER 10-15 DEGREES COLDER THURSDAY MORNING. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE GENERALLY QUIET LATER TONIGHT ACROSS OUR
ENTIRE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S
AREAWIDE. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN QUIET AS NEAR TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A
STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S AREAWIDE. QUIET
AND SEASONABLY COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS, 5-8F BELOW, WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION LATE THIS WEEK ON THANKSGIVING INTO LATE
WEEK (THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY) THANKS TO MEAN NORTHERLY
FLOW/SUBSIDENCE, 1028-1032MB SFC HIGH PROPAGATING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA, AND PW LESS THAN HALF INCH.
MODEL CONSENSUS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE STILL SHOWING
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT BEING THE COLDEST PERIODS WITH NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. A COUPLE OF AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF I-20 COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP TO BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH A LIGHT FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE BY LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME. /CR/
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK TUESDAY...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS THE 1032
SFC HIGH BEGINS TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS. LOOKING
AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, FUTURE GUIDANCE IS STILL HIGHLIGHTING QUITE
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS.
A MAJOR LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECASTED TO SET OVER THE ROCKIES
INTO THE PLAINS WHILE A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS UP OVER THE EAST COAST.
THIS WILL HELP PLACE OUR CWA IN FAVORABLE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. AT THE MOMENT, GLOBAL
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO
DEVELOP, WITH GREATER POTENTIAL OVER THE ARKLAMISS DELTA REGION.
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 544 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A LIGHT NW
WIND TONIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 20KTS BY 15Z WEDNESDAY AND THEN
SUBSIDE BY 23Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 50 60 36 57 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 50 63 34 57 / 10 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 49 60 36 58 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 53 69 38 62 / 10 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 50 62 37 60 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 45 55 36 54 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 45 56 33 55 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/CR/22
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