788
FXUS64 KJAN 011121 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
621 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- "LIMITED THREAT" FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS TODAY.
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN HEAT IMPACTS, HEAT STRESS BUILDS BACK IN
MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...TROUGHING WILL INCREASES ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO
AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS, ALONG WITH
THE ADDITION OF DAYTIME HEATING, WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. A STORM OR TWO
COULD BECOME INTENSE ENOUGH DURING THIS TIME, AND PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
ALL OF TODAY'S CONVECTION.
WHILE HOT HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH SAID CONVECTION, AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION IN THE FRONT'S WAKE, WILL PROVIDE SOME TEMPORARY
RELIEF FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT THAT'S GRIPPED THE REGION FOR
SOMETIME. STILL, A "LIMITED THREAT" FOR DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL
EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. HERE, THE
COMBINATION OF HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 70S, WILL YIELD AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105F.
AGAIN, THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR THAT ADVECTS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT WILL HANG AROUND THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S EACH DAY, WITH
DEW POINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
UNFORTUNATELY, THIS'LL ALL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE MOVE INTO THE MID
AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
AGAIN RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
DURING THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BEGIN CLIMBING BACK
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S AREAWIDE. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALSO
BEGIN CREEPING UP, POSSIBLY AGAIN LEADING TO ANOTHER BOUT OF
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS AS WE END THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES
ALSO WILL BE TOUGH TO COME BY DURING THIS TIME, WITH ONLY AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE. /19/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
DESPITE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SINKING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING, VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TAF
SITES DURING THIS 12Z FORECAST PACKAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN A BRIEF 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF MAINLY MVFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IF OBSERVED ON STATION. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
BETWEEN 15-20 KNOTS, AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY. BEHIND IT, WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS EVENING AND SUSTAINED AROUND 5 KNOTS.
/19/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 95 71 89 70 / 10 20 0 0
MERIDIAN 93 71 89 70 / 30 30 0 0
VICKSBURG 95 71 90 71 / 30 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 95 74 92 71 / 10 30 0 0
NATCHEZ 96 71 92 71 / 10 10 0 0
GREENVILLE 95 72 89 70 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 93 70 87 70 / 30 0 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19
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