086
FXUS64 KJAN 190834
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
334 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A LIMITED FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
THROUGH TODAY: CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL
MORNING LOWS AND SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
RESULTING IN AN EAST WIND AND KEEPING THE GULF CLOSED THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RIDGING ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION AS WELL.
TOGETHER THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
AND NEAR FULL INSOLATION. THE RESULT WILL BE CRITICALLY LOW
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAINTAINING FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. /22/
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED
TO OUR NORTH AND INCREASING RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE WEST THROUGH
THE WEEK, WILL MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE OVERALL DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK AS DEW POINTS GENERALLY MIX INTO THE 30S & 40S EACH
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY WARM EACH DAY. THIS
WARMING WILL BE FELT MORE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS, THAN WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS. LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. MEANWHILE HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. THEN BY SATURDAY, THEY'LL HAVE INCREASED
INTO THE LOWER 80S TO AROUND 90.
THESE INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THIS DRY AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO CRITICALLY
LOW VALUES, I.E. GENERALLY INTO THE 20-30% RANGE. THIS, COUPLED
WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO PROMOTE AT LEAST A "LIMITED THREAT" FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLEASE CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AND OUTLOOK THROUGH THE WEEK, AS SOME
CATEGORICAL ADJUSTMENT COULD BE MADE TO PORTIONS OF, IF NOT ALL OF,
THE FORECAST AREA. /19/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 76 49 81 48 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 73 45 77 46 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 77 48 81 47 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 77 48 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 77 51 80 49 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 77 47 82 48 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 77 45 83 46 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/19/KP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page