265
FXUS64 KJAN 080644
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1244 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 942 PM CST WED DEC 7 2022
REST OF TONIGHT:
591-592DM SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO, WITH MOIST SW RETURN FLOW ANALYZED ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED TO THE N, EXPECT ANY WEAK
ASCENT/RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN AROUND HWY 82 CORRIDOR & IF ANY
REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS CLOSER TO DAYBREAK THEN LIFTS N. RIDGE WILL
BE STRONG OVERNIGHT & WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, MOST AREAS WILL
REMAIN RAIN FREE. ANOTHER NIGHT OF STRATUS & DENSE FOG ARE
POSSIBLE. MAIN EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO BRING THE "LIMITED"
FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG NORTH TO ALONG THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR &
EXTENDING INTO NE LA, WHILE THE "ELEVATED" AREA INTO A TIER OF
COUNTIES ALONG THE HWY 84 & 98 CORRIDORS. DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE PINE BELT IN THE HWY 98 CORRIDOR & REMAINS
VALID. ONLY CAVEAT IS ANY THAT CAN DEVELOP & IS DEVELOPING IN S LA
COULD ADVECT INTO NE LA FOR A FEW HOURS NEAR OR JUST AFTER
DAYBREAK. FOG IS DEVELOPING FASTER & ADVECTING QUICKER TO THE N
ALONG THE MS GULF COAST AS WELL. TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
& SHORT-FUSE UPDATES TO THE ADVISORY AREA & HWO COULD BE NEEDED
IF CONFIDENCE & AREAL COVERAGE INCREASES. OTHERWISE, MOST AREAS
LOOK ON TRACK. BUMPED UP LOWS AGAIN, WITH A PERSISTENCE FCST UNDER
A STAGNANT, WARM PATTERN. UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 502 PM CST WED DEC 7 2022
THROUGH TOMORROW: DENSE FOG POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
EARLIER FOR THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR FROM 11PM TONIGHT THROUGH MID-
MORNING THURSDAY. MORE INFORMATION WILL BE FORTHCOMING IN THE
EVENING UPDATE. /JAN/
NO MAJOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS OR SIGNIFICANT FORECAST
CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH THERE IS A SIGNAL
FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER PATTERN THRU SATURDAY DOMINATED BY LARGE NEARLY E-W ORIENTED
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY
LARGE, SUMMER-LIKE 591 DM HEIGHT VALUE. THIS HELPS EXPLAIN ABOVE
NORMAL SFC TEMPS.
LARGE SCALE PATTERN EXPECTED TO PROGRESS AND SHIFT AS DEEP UPPER
LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL CONUS AND BUILDS
SOUTH INTO THE ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND. EVENTUALLY, WAVE TO THE WEST
OF THE LARGE UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO KICK THE LARGER WAVE EAST
MONDAY/TUESDAY BRING VERY STRONG SSWLY FLOW ALOFT AND S-SELY LOW
LEVEL FLOW INTO THE MID-SOUTH, A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. EXACT DETAILS ON TIMING AND
ORIENTATION WILL CHANGE AS FORECASTS EVOLVE BUT WILL BE SOMETHING
TO WATCH VERY CLOSELY.
/SNELSON/JAN/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CST THU DEC 8 2022
CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT LEADING TO
MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES. SOUTHERN SITES
(HBG/PIB) WILL SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW VISIBILITY/DENSE
FOG & CIGS/LOW STRATUS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH BETWEEN 11Z-
15Z THURSDAY. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY THAT SOME OF THIS COULD
ADVECT NORTH TOWARDS OTHER TAF SITES (JAN, HKS, AND MEI) AROUND THIS
TIMEFRAME. VISIBILITY SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AROUND 15Z THURSDAY
WITH VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES BY 18Z THURSDAY. AMENDMENTS MAYBE
NECESSARY IF CONDITIONS WORSEN. /CRJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 62 76 58 76 / 10 30 10 40
MERIDIAN 60 75 55 74 / 0 20 0 30
VICKSBURG 63 76 58 75 / 20 30 10 50
HATTIESBURG 60 78 58 77 / 0 10 0 20
NATCHEZ 62 77 58 76 / 10 20 10 40
GREENVILLE 63 70 55 68 / 50 20 20 70
GREENWOOD 63 71 53 69 / 40 30 10 60
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
JAN/JAN/CR
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