354
FXUS64 KJAN 122229 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
429 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
- MOST NIGHTS SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING THIS WEEK.
- WE ARE MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR
EVENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY: CONTINUED DRY AND WARMER THROUGH THE PERIOD. MID
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A 1032MB HIGH CENTERED OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
TUESDAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RETURN FLOW ACROSS OUR CWA BY SUNRISE THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, A SPLIT FLOW REGIME
WILL CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET
STREAM BECOMING MORE PROMINENT OVER OUR CWA. A CUT OFF LOW SPINNING
OVER THE BAJA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WILL GET CAUGHT UP BY THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH
TUESDAY. CURRENTLY THIS FEATURE WAS SENDING PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS OUR CWA FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST. THESE HIGH CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY HINDER PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIGHT RETURN FLOW BY MORNING, HELP TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, AND WITH THE WARMEST MORNING LOWS OCCURING
OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE DAMPENING CUT OFF LOW AND THE LEFT FRONT
QUAD OF A SOUTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK WILL APPROACH OUR CWA TUESDAY
AND SERVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED OVER OUR SOUTHERN ZONES UNTIL THE
EVENING. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN NORMAL. /22/
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE TO
EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER INFLUENCE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF INTRUSIONS OF ANOMALOUSLY COLD POLAR AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WILL BE CENTERED FROM LATE WED THROUGH
THU NIGHT, AND THE SECOND "COLDER" SURGE SHOULD BE CENTERED AROUND
THE SUNDAY TO MONDAY TIME FRAME. BETWEEN THESE EVENTS, BRIEF
WARM-UPS WILL OCCUR, BUT THE LONG RANGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
RATHER COLD OVERALL, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILL/ TEMPERATURE READINGS BEING POSSIBLE AT SOME POINT LATE IN
THE FORECAST.
MOST LIKELY, THE DANGEROUS COLD, IF IT OCCURS, WILL BE "ADVISORY"
LEVEL AND NOT LONG-LASTING. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED RECENTLY, WINTER
WEATHER THREATS REMAIN LOW FOR THE LONG RANGE FORECAST. THE MAJORITY
OF GUIDANCE DO NOT BACK THE MID LEVEL FLOW ENOUGH FOR SUFFICIENT
MOIST ASCENT WITHIN THE COLD AIR. IT SEEMS ANY WINTRY WX IMPACTS
IN THIS WEATHER PATTERN MAY BE TIED TO LIGHT POST-FRONTAL PRECIP
THIS WEEKEND, AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE MONITORING RIGHT NOW.
OVERALL, MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS DRY, AND ANY MESSAGING AT THIS
POINT WOULD BE FOCUSED ON COLD WEATHER IMPACTS. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT VARIABLE WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. PREVAILING SURFACE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST, BUT AT OR UNDER 5KTS./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 54 31 60 42 / 0 0 0 20
MERIDIAN 54 30 59 41 / 0 0 0 20
VICKSBURG 53 32 60 42 / 0 0 0 20
HATTIESBURG 55 31 62 44 / 0 0 0 30
NATCHEZ 55 33 60 43 / 0 0 10 20
GREENVILLE 52 33 60 42 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 54 33 60 41 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/EC/OAJ
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