391
FXUS64 KJAN 200141
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
841 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- POST FRONTAL AIRMASS: FALL-LIKE, COOL TEMPERATURES AT TIMES.
- DRY WEEK, WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY.
- GREATER COVERAGE AND MORE SCATTERED RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- SOME LOW END SEVERE THREAT (LESS THAN 15% CHANCE) INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING UNDER CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, WITH COOL LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO
UPPER 40S. /15/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
THROUGH THIS WEEK...
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT:
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST,
WITH NORTHERLY DRY ADVECTION ONGOING. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR WHILE MID 50S TO
LOW 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 CORRIDOR. SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS
DRIVING SOME OF THE LOWERED STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER THIS
WILL CLEAR OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE TO SEASONABLY COOL (HIGHS 70F TO 82F TODAY AND LOWS 42F
TO 48F TONIGHT). LOWS COULD FALL AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S DUE TO
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING (DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS) MONDAY
MORNING.
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET AS 1022MB SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TO TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE, WITH A FEW NIGHTS SEASONABLY COOL (4 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW)
FOR MID OCTOBER (LOW TO MID 40S). HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLE (75F TO
85F THROUGH TUESDAY) WHILE ANOTHER FRONTAL ZONE TUESDAY WILL DROP
HIGHS MIDWEEK ON WEDNESDAY (70F TO 78F WEDNESDAY). ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL MAKE A RETURN TUESDAY IN THE MID-MORNING TO AFTERNOON HOURS
(15 TO 25 PERCENT) BEFORE QUICKLY DRIVING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. MAIN TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY REMAINS POTENTIAL
FOR OVERACHIEVING ON LOWS AND AFTERNOON MIXING. LEANED TOWARDS A
BLEND WITH MOS FOR LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNINGS AND THURSDAY MORNINGS,
WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS BOTH MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
BLENDED WITH THE REASONABLE WORST CASE (10TH PERCENTILE). EVEN
WITH SOME DECREASED AND POTENTIALLY CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY,
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAINS HAVE DRASTICALLY INCREASED FUEL MOISTURE
AND LIMIT FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.
ANOTHER TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM IS HIGHS WILL MODERATE AHEAD OF
THIS FRONTAL ZONE, WITH INCREASED RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE INTO NEXT
WEEKEND (15 TO 40 PERCENT). THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME
ORGANIZATION, PER CSU MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE PROBS. THIS IS TOO FAR
OUT TO MENTION IN HWO GRAPHICS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. /DC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS EVENING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON./15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 47 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 77 44 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 74 49 78 56 / 0 0 0 10
HATTIESBURG 82 48 80 51 / 10 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 77 47 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 70 47 76 56 / 0 0 0 20
GREENWOOD 72 45 77 54 / 0 0 0 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/15
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