894
FXUS64 KJAN 261140
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
640 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY.
- SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEK
AHEAD INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
OUR AREA REMAINS ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE 596DAM HIGH
AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO OUR NORTHEAST
ZONES LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. PRIOR TO MORE WIDESPREAD
STORM DEVELOPMENT, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL WARM INTO THE
MID 90S F WITH UPPER 90S F NEAR AND WEST OF I-55. WITH CONTINUED
HIGH HUMIDITY, HEAT STRESS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TODAY. IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 105 F WHERE
A "LIMITED" THREAT AREA FOR DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS ADVERTISED.
ELSEWHERE, AN "ELEVATED" THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE REMAINS
FOR HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 F. AS THE EVENING DISTURBANCE
DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST, IT WILL
ENCOUNTER THIS UNSTABLE, HOT AND HUMID ENVIRONMENT. SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER FLOW ENHANCED BY ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME OF THIS CONVECTION TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. /22/86/
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...
THE ONGOING NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DISTURBANCES
EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE DIMINISHING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AS INSTABILITY LIKEWISE WEAKENS. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL
BEGIN TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LESSENING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY, THE TRADE-OFF WILL AGAIN BE INCREASING HEAT. BY
NEXT MONDAY, SOME NEED FOR AT LEAST A "LIMITED" THREAT OF
INCREASED HEAT STRESS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGHER OUTLOOKS POSSIBLE. /19/86/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. EXPECT TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20./15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 96 72 92 70 / 30 60 50 40
MERIDIAN 95 72 91 71 / 50 50 60 50
VICKSBURG 98 72 92 70 / 20 70 50 30
HATTIESBURG 96 73 91 71 / 50 50 80 50
NATCHEZ 99 73 92 71 / 20 60 50 40
GREENVILLE 96 71 93 70 / 30 70 30 10
GREENWOOD 95 70 92 69 / 30 40 30 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page