433
FXUS64 KJAN 010759
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
259 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN EACH DAY, WITH A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHEAST. EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS
HAD A RIDGE NOSING WEST ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL.
FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL HELP MAINTAIN A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE OVER OUR CWA WITH PWATS 1.4-1.5INCHES. THIS MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
LEAD TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE
OVER OUR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN. AS COMPARED TO TUESDAY,
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE LATER TODAY AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. /22/
THURSDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK...
DEEP RIDGING OVER THE REGION REMAINS THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND WILL MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION. SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL SWING
THROUGH THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK, THURSDAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY.
MOST ENERGY IS DEFLECTED NORTH DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE,
SO THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO MAKE HEADWAY INTO THE AREA, LEAVING A
MORE SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS. THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER LEAVES A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND ALLOWS THE NEXT ONE TO PUSH THROUGH.
OVERALL, THE WEAK LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR, AND WEAK FORCING AS
HEIGHT FALLS ARE WEAK GIVE LITTLE CAUSE FOR CONCERN IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE POTENTIAL. INSTEAD, THE DEEP MOISTURE COULD FAVOR BRIEFLY
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. FLOOD POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW HOWEVER GIVEN
THE QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE FRONT.
IN THE WAKE, A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL, BUT BRIEF, COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND
LOWS IN THE 40S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES RECOVER BACK
TO NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THOUGH DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE
GREATER AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REINFORCES DRY AIR OVER THE REGION.
/SAS/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED APR 1 2026
SIMILAR TO THIS TIME LAST, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SFC OBS
SHOWED MVFR CIGS SPREADING INTO EAST AND CNTRL MS FROM THE SOUTH.
MVFR CIGS WL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND IFR CIGS WL BE PSBL BY
10Z CNTRL AND SOUTH. MVFR/IFR CIGS WL PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 16Z
BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. BY 17Z A GUSTY 17-20KTS SOUTH WIND WILL
DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES BEFORE SUBSIDING BY 22Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE PSBL THIS AFTN WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
ACROSS SOUTH AND EAST MS. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 84 65 84 65 / 40 10 40 10
MERIDIAN 83 61 85 62 / 50 10 10 0
VICKSBURG 86 66 83 66 / 20 10 60 10
HATTIESBURG 83 63 85 65 / 60 10 20 10
NATCHEZ 86 66 83 67 / 30 10 80 10
GREENVILLE 86 67 83 67 / 10 10 50 20
GREENWOOD 86 66 85 66 / 20 10 40 30
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/22
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