163
FXUS64 KJAN 160542 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1242 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
CALM AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME. /DL/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2025
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. COLD
AIR ADVECTION ON BREEZY NORTHERLIES AMID LOWERED HUMIDITY HAS
RESULTED IN SUFFICIENT FIRE DANGER CRITERIA TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING
ELEVATED OUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS WINDS CALM AND SKIES
CLEAR, TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S F TONIGHT.
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...
STEADY TEMPERATURES INCREASES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, LEVELING OFF INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
F. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH 90 F BY FRIDAY.
IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THATS FIRE WEATHER DANGER LIKELY WILL REMAIN
LOW THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS COMBINATIONS OF LOW
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LIKELY NOT SUFFICIENTLY RISE TO LEVELS
OF CONCERN. GIVEN THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, ANY FORECAST
CHANGES THAT INTRODUCE SOMEWHAT DRIER OR WINDIER CONDITIONS THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST WOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CONCERN. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE WEEK.
RETURNING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN SLOWLY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY ROBUST TO RESULT
IN A FRONTAL WAVE/CYCLOGENESIS AND THIS COMBINED WITH LIKELY AT
LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMODYNAMICS COULD MEAN
STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FEW OF THESE COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
DISAGREEMENT AMONGST GUIDANCE IN BOTH TIME AND INTENSITY WILL
PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF FORECAST GRAPHICS AT THIS TIME, BUT IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA WILL HAVE HAD A ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /86/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED APR 16 2025
GLH WAS REPORTING IFR VSBY DUE TO HZ AT 530Z. THIS REDUCED VSBY
MAY CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER 12Z BEFORE IMPROVING. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
/22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 53 83 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 49 82 56 88 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 55 84 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 50 84 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 56 82 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 56 82 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 55 81 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DL/86/22
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