344  
FXUS64 KJAN 291435  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
935 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025  
   
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
 
 
   
MESOSCALE UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025  
 
CURRENT RADAR SCANS FROM THIS MORNING SHOW A LINE OF SHOWERS OUT OF  
OUR FORECAST AREA TRACKING EAST ACROSS ALABAMA GIVING US A BRIEF  
LITTLE BREAK FROM THE RAIN. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUIET  
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA. A FEW ISOLATED SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NW DELTA. SKY  
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA AS A QUICK LOOK  
AT GOES 16 VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HELP LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING  
TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOW/MID 80S AREAWIDE.  
/CR/  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025  
 
THROUGH NEXT WEEK...  
 
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS  
OF RAIN AND STORMS AS A TRAIN OF MIDLEVEL DISTURBANCES PUSH ACROSS  
THE REGION. THE STAGNANT HUMID AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT  
STORMS WITH MARGINAL SEVERE RISK, MAINLY FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS AND HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR TODAY HAS BEEN  
HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. BY FRIDAY, A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH  
ACROSS THE AREA. STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AND AHEAD  
OF THIS FRONT, WHICH STILL NECESSITATES A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN  
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 84  
CORRIDOR.  
 
WE FINALLY SEE DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH  
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS SHORT LIVED  
HOWEVER, AS THE HUMID AIRMASS RECOVERS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING  
BUILDING ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES RESTORED. THIS  
WILL RETURN RAIN AND STORM CHANCES, THOUGH MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN.  
THE WEAK FLOW SHOULD LIMIT BETTER ORGANIZATION AND THUS GREATER  
SEVERE THREAT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA  
WILL WORK TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS  
IN COMBINATION WITH LACK OF AIRMASS CHANGE WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME  
RAIN CHANCES AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD./SAS/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025  
 
SCATTERED SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA  
THROUGH 15Z BEFORE CONDITIONS GENERALLY IMPROVE. LOW CLOUDS WILL  
BE SLOW TO LIFT WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PERSISTING UNTIL AFTER  
18Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD  
WHEN CEILINGS WILL LOWER ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. /86/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 83 69 81 60 / 60 10 40 0  
MERIDIAN 81 66 82 59 / 90 10 50 0  
VICKSBURG 84 70 81 61 / 40 10 30 0  
HATTIESBURG 84 69 86 63 / 90 10 50 0  
NATCHEZ 84 70 81 61 / 40 10 40 0  
GREENVILLE 83 67 78 61 / 30 40 20 0  
GREENWOOD 84 67 79 59 / 40 40 30 0  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SAS20/86/CR  
 
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