956
FXUS64 KJAN 241613 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1113 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO VERY DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY EACH
DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VERY STRAIGHT-FORWARD THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK, AND CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE HIGH IN THE FORECAST
DETAILS. GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES AGREE THAT AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS WE GO THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER WITH
LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES OF NEAR 40 DEG F.
OF GREATEST IMPORTANCE, THE CONTINUED DRYING OF VEGETATION
(EXTREME KBDI VALUES > 700) COMBINED WITH EXCEPTIONALLY LOW
DAYTIME RH VALUES (< 25%) WILL HELP TO MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER THREAT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE THIS THROUGH THE
GRAPHICS AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. GIVEN THE ANTICYCLONIC
LOW LEVEL FLOW, LIGHT WIND WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE OVERALL
FIRE DANGER THREAT LEVELS.
OTHERWISE, RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST, WHEN THE RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN, AND
WHEN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM INFLUENCE INCREASES OVER OUR REGION.
EVEN THEN, GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE GREATER RAINFALL SIGNAL
CENTERED MORE TO OUR WEST, SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT FOR DROUGHT
RELIEF ANYTIME SOON.
LOOKING WELL AHEAD, ALL INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR FOR INCREASED
FIRE DANGER THREATS IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONTS.
/EC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST YET AGAIN ACROSS ALL SITES AND FOR THE
PERIOD. LIGHT GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AND A FEW CIRRUS STREAKS
POSSIBLE. THE EXPECTATION IS QUIET AND CALM./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 48 80 50 79 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 45 77 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 49 81 49 80 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 44 81 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 50 81 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 47 81 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 48 80 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/OAJ
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