021
FXUS64 KJAN 281239 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
739 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY, WARM AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND WHEN HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
THROUGH MIDWEEK...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND
DOWNSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEPARTING MAJOR NOR'EASTER EVENT KEEPS OUR FORECAST AREA
BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY HEADED
INTO MIDWEEK AND ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO NUDGE OVER THE 90
DEGREE MARK TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THE WEEKEND, HUMIDITY WILL BE NOTICEABLY ON THE INCREASE. AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWEST US INTERACTS WITH THE
REMNANTS OF CURRENT EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE POLO, THE MERGING
SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY MOVE CLOSER TO OUR AREA. THIS LOW WILL
REINFORCE A SEASONABLY ROBUST COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
NORTHWEST AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS DEVELOPING ACTIVITY,
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY, TRANSPORTING, RICH, MOIST
GULF AIR NORTHWARD. DEWPOINTS BEGIN THE WEEK IN THE 50S F BUT
LIKELY RISE TO NEAR 70 F INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE MEANTIME, FULL
SUN IN THE AFTERNOONS WILL SUPPORT MIXING AND DRYING WITH DROUGHT
CONDITIONS STILL PRESENT. FOR THIS REASON, THE "LIMITED" FIRE
WEATHER RISK GRAPHIC WAS MAINTAINED FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK.
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND....
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WETTER OVERALL OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS,
MOSTLY DUE TO THE GFS COMING AROUND TO MORE OF THE SIGNAL SHOWN
IN THE EURO GUIDANCE, MODELING CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE BOTH WITH THE
COMPLEX INTERACTION OF THE BAROCLINIC LOW AND ANY TROPICAL
RESIDUALS BUT ALSO WITH THE INTENSITY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
THAT HAS BEEN OUR HOT, FAIR WEATHER COMPANION SINCE SPRING
ABANDONED US. THIS RESULTS IN HIGHER THAN TYPICAL UNCERTAINTY IN
EXACT FRONTAL PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT INCREASED
PWAT VALUES (LIKELY AT SOME POINT IN THE 5-8 DAY RANGE EXCEEDING
2 INCHES) COUPLED WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN DEEP LAYER FLOW AMID
INCREASING UPPER SOUTHWESTERLY INFLUENCE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AT
LEAST SOME RISK OF WIDESPREAD, POTENTIALLY AT TIMES HEAVY,
RAINFALL. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO GIVE MORE THAN VERY BROAD
ESTIMATES OF RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE AREA, BUT CURRENT 50TH
PERCENTILE ESTIMATES SUGGEST AN INCH OR TWO COULD BE COMMON.
SHOULD SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MEMBERS OF THE MODEL ENSEMBLE
SUITE PROVE MORE ACCURATE, SOME RISK FOR FLOODING IN SOME PLACES
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. FOR NOW, WHILE THUNDER WOULD BE LIKELY AT
TIMES, THE SYSTEM SEEMS UNLIKELY TO PAIR ADEQUATE INSTABILITY WITH
SUFFICIENTLY HIGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO A DEGREE NECESSARY TO POSE
A SUBSTANTIAL THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER.
WE CERTAINLY COULD USE A HEALTHY RAIN AS MOST OF THE AREA BOASTS
A 2 TO 4 INCH RAINFALL DEFICIT FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PRECEDING. OCTOBER IS OFTEN THE DRIEST MONTH FOR OUR
AREA AND THIS EVENT MAY PRESENT ONE OF THE BETTER OPPORTUNITIES
FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN. TRENDS FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER POSSIBILITIES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS. /86/NF/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 738 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 88 63 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 86 60 89 60 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 89 63 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 91 62 92 62 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 91 64 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 87 61 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 88 59 90 61 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
LP/NF
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page