046
FXUS64 KJAN 211758
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1258 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN
EARLY THIS WEEK.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY
OVER ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: LOCAL RADARS STILL SHOWED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WITH
PWATS GREATER THAN AN INCH AND THREE QUARTERS RESIDED. THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE BUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWED OUR CWA WITH A MUCH WEAKER RIDGE ALOFT OVERHEAD AND
A CLOSED LOW STILL CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF NEAR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST.
/22/
THE TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL REPLACE THE LINGERING
SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON. WEAKER INHIBITION ACROSS
THE AREA, AND A NEARBY FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP TO
TRIGGER AFTERNOON CONVECTION. STILL LOW-TO-MODERATE (20-40%) POPS,
BUT ANY LOCATION IN THE AREA AT LEAST HAS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD. WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING, AND A REMNANT OF DRIER AIR HANGING ON THROUGH THE DELTA
AREAS, THE LOCAL GRAPHIC FOR HEAT RISK TOMORROW WAS LEVELED AT
"LIMITED" (1 OF 4) FOR TOMORROW. MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD TOP
OUT NEAR 105 IN THE HOTTEST AREAS. /NF/22/
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK TROUGHING WILL EXIST ACROSS MAINLY FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY FINISH DROPPING SOUTH
THROUGH THE CWA LATE IN THE PERIOD TUESDAY. THIS, COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE MIDDLE 90S, WILL AGAIN RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE PARKWAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS, WITH
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EAST MISSISSIPPI.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE BECOMING MORE PREVALENT
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, RAIN
CHANCES ESSENTIALLY DWINDLE TO NIL. HOWEVER IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY'S WAKE, DRIER AIR AND LESS HOT CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS HIGHS WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE
90S, COME LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND THEY'LL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL LIKEWISE FOLLOW SUIT AS THEY'LL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S WEDNESDAY MORNING. THEN
COOLING INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. /19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TAF SITES. BR WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE @
SITES PIB/HBG BY 12Z TUESDAY DISSIPATING AROUND 15Z./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 71 96 70 93 / 20 30 10 0
MERIDIAN 71 95 69 93 / 30 40 0 0
VICKSBURG 71 96 71 93 / 20 20 0 0
HATTIESBURG 71 95 70 94 / 30 30 10 0
NATCHEZ 71 97 72 94 / 20 20 0 0
GREENVILLE 72 96 70 92 / 20 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 70 97 68 92 / 20 20 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/19/KP
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