992
FXUS64 KJAN 100000
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
700 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HURRICANE ISAIAS WILL MAKE LANDFALL THIS EVENING ALONG THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
- GUSTY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING, SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST MISSISSIPPI.
- FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS EAST
AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HURRICANE ISAIAS CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LANDFALL EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING. ACROSS OUR AREA, THE WESTERNMOST EXTENT OF
OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO SOUTHEAST AND EAST
MISSISSIPPI, AND CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING MORE BREEZY. HEADING INTO
TONIGHT, GUSTS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PINE BELT.
CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND IS LOW, BUT
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE AFTER SUNSET. AS ISAIAS MOVES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND
BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM, AN AREA OF
STRONGER WIND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER.
INDIVIDUAL CAM SOLUTIONS HAVE INDICATED GUSTS UPWARD INTO THE
60-70 MPH RANGE IN POCKETS, WITH SPECIFIC AREAS IMPACTED SHIFTING
SOMEWHAT FROM RUN TO RUN. WHILE SOME OF THESE INDIVIDUAL SOLUTIONS
MAY BE A BIT OVERBAKED, CAM ENSEMBLES DO LEND CREDENCE TO THE
LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER GUSTS BEGINNING OVERNIGHT ACROSS EAST MS
AND EXPANDING TO AREAS AS FAR WEST AS THE MS RIVER DURING THE
MORNING SATURDAY. 12Z REFS PROBABILITIES FOR 50+ MPH WIND GUSTS
ARE AS HIGH AS 70-80 PERCENT IN THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA BY MID-
MORNING SATURDAY, WITH 30+ PERCENT PROBABILITIES IN THE MERIDIAN
AREA AS EARLY AS 3AM, SHIFTING UP TO THE MS 25 CORRIDOR THROUGH
MIDDAY. THE EXISTING TROPICAL STORM WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING, WITH CHOCTAW AND WEBSTER COUNTIES ADDED TO
A WARNING AS WELL. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A SECOND MAXIMUM
CORRIDOR ACROSS THE EASTERN DELTA OR I-55 CORRIDOR, THOUGH THERE
IS LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE MOST EXTREME VERSION OF THIS SCENARIO
PRESENTED BY THE 12Z HRRR. REGARDLESS OF THE PEAK WIND GUSTS,
WINDS WILL BE CONSISTENTLY GUSTY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MOST
AREAS NOT UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING, EXCEPT FOR OUR AR
COUNTIES AND OUR WESTERNMOST LA PARISHES. DOWNED TREES AND POWER
LINES ARE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST MS WHERE
THE HIGHEST GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE LONGEST DURATION, SO
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY.
RAIN, ON THE OTHER HAND, WILL NOT BE AS PLENTIFUL ACROSS OUR AREA.
REFS PMM FROM THIS MORNING STILL SHOWS A SWATH OF 1-3" ACROSS THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA,
GIVEN THE WORST CASE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO 4-5" IN A SHORT PERIOD
OF TIME. BUT AS YOU GO FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, TOTALS DROP OFF
SUBSTANTIALLY. IT IS A NEAR CERTAINTY THAT SOME OF OUR SOUTHEAST
AR, NORTHEAST LA, AND SOUTHWEST MS WILL RECEIVE NO RAIN. RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BY EVENING. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PROVIDE ENOUGH TEMP RELIEF TO AVOID MAJOR FIRE DANGER ISSUES
IN THE DRY AREAS TOMORROW, BUT BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, RHS BELOW 30
PERCENT WILL BECOME A REALITY AGAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR AREAS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. FORTUNATELY WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER,
BUT WE'LL STILL HAVE TO MONITOR FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
NOTABLY, IN THE AREAS THAT DO RECEIVE RAIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, BUT SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN AROUND FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AFTER
SOME HEAT RELIEF TOMORROW, FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD AT SOME SITES. HOWEVER,
WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S, THESE CONDITIONS WILL FEEL
MOSTLY TOLERABLE, AND MORNINGS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY COOL TO
COMFORTABLE. /DL/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR AVIATION IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS. GIVEN THE STORM IS EAST OF US, RAIN, LOW
STRATUS/LOW VISIBILITY WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, WITH LOWEST VISIBILITY DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AT GTR. WIND
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY AREAWIDE, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40KT IN SPOTS. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR THROUGHOUT
THE EVENT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT MAY
STILL BE GUSTY HEADING INTO TOMORROW EVENING. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 62 73 59 89 / 70 80 10 0
MERIDIAN 59 70 58 86 / 100 80 10 0
VICKSBURG 63 79 59 92 / 30 40 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 78 58 90 / 90 10 0 0
NATCHEZ 64 83 61 91 / 10 20 0 0
GREENVILLE 63 74 59 90 / 30 60 10 0
GREENWOOD 60 70 58 88 / 60 90 20 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>028-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>063.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR MSZ026>033-037>039-046-
052-058.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MSZ029>033-038-039-045-046-051-052-
057-058-066-074.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MSZ030-031-033-038-039-045-046-051-052-
057-058-066-074.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ037-044-050-056-064-
065-072-073.
LA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LAZ009-016-025-
026.
AR...NONE.
DL/DL/SAS20
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page