394
FXUS64 KJAN 061730
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1230 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT STRESS INCREASES INTO THE WEEKEND AND PERSISTS INTO MID
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK (WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY (THURSDAY) AND FRIDAY: RAP/WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATES
STAGNANT UPPER PATTERN: REMNANT UPPER LOW LOSING INFLUENCE/WASHING
OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES THIS MORNING AND 596-597DM MEAN
RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. HEIGHTS ARE BUILDING WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHERLY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LOCKS IN PWS GENERALLY AROUND ONE INCH (1.2
INCHES) AND LOW HUMIDITY ALOFT (I.E. 700-300MB LAYER HUMIDITY IN
MID TEENS TO LOW 20 PERCENT RANGE) IN EAST TO NORTHEAST MS WHILE
DEEPER MOISTURE (1.6 TO 1.8 INCHES) OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN MS
AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD AREAWIDE
INTO FRIDAY. INCREASED WARM ADVECTION (WAA) WILL MODERATE
TEMPERATURES: HIGHS BECOMING SEASONABLY WARM INTO WEDNESDAY (95F
TO 97F) AND SEASONABLE LOWS (70F TO 75F THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
TONIGHT). HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY IN CENTRAL
TO SOUTHWESTERN AREAS (HEAT INDICES IN THE 102F TO 107F RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON) AND AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 FRIDAY.
INHERITED HWO GRAPHICS FOR LIMITED AND ELEVATED HEAT IN SOUTHWEST
TODAY SEEMS REASONABLE. WITH MOIST ADVECTION PICKING UP AND LAPSE
RATES IN NORTHEAST LA TO SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MS AND
NORTHEAST LA, SOME DIURNALLY INDUCED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
MAY DEVELOP.
THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEDNESDAY): SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SHIFT TO DEEPENING MEAN RIDGE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WHILE THE SOUTHEAST STATES CAUGHT IN
BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE WEST AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE/HIGHER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS THIS WEEKEND (72F TO 77F). COMBINED WITH
SEASONABLE WARMTH (HIGHS 93F TO 96F), HEAT STRESS WILL ONLY SPREAD
AND INCREASE IN AREA, CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HWO
GRAPHIC LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUED THE THREAT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK (TUESDAY). FURTHER REFINEMENTS AND HEAT HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION AND INCREASED DEEP MOISTURE ALOFT WILL
INCREASE THIS THE WEEKEND (PWS IN THE 1.7 TO 2.1 INCH RANGE LATE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK). RAIN CHANCES WILL MAINLY BE SUMMERTIME
VARIETY (DIURNALLY INDUCED) THURSDAY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 AND
ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF NATCHEZ TRACE INTO THE WEEKEND AND
SPREADING NORTHWEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED TO AT TIMES SCATTERED COVERAGE (20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE)
WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE IN THE PINE BELT, WITH POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. THIS PATTERN DOES NOT FAVOR NOTEWORTHY ORGANIZED STORM
THREAT, BUT SCATTERED STRONGER GUSTY STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY LATE WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL LARGELY STAY SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (<30%) FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AT
SOUTHERN CITES, BUT ALL ACTIVITY DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET. /SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 95 73 95 / 0 10 10 20
MERIDIAN 74 94 73 95 / 10 20 10 30
VICKSBURG 73 94 73 95 / 0 10 10 10
HATTIESBURG 73 95 73 96 / 10 20 10 10
NATCHEZ 73 95 72 96 / 10 10 10 10
GREENVILLE 74 95 74 95 / 0 30 10 20
GREENWOOD 73 95 73 94 / 0 20 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/DC/SAS20
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