110
FXUS64 KJAN 210020 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
620 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH A STRAY STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- COLDER DRIER CONDITIONS LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY MODERATING TEMPERATURES MID AND LATE WEEK.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 615 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
SHORT-TERM WEATHER ELEMENTS WERE UPDATED WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE DAYTIME TOMORROW, PRIMARILY ADJUSTING POPS AND TIMING
FOR ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THAT TIME. ONLY A HANDFUL OF
SHOWERS IN THE REGION ARE TIED TO THE SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT. REMAINDER OF ONGOING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
ELEVATED ABOVE THE COLD FRONT. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT, WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWER COVERAGE BEING SHOWN LATER
TONIGHT BY HI-RES GUIDANCE WITH A SUBTLE IMPULSE IN THE FLOW
ALOFT. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...A GENERAL EAST TO WEST ORIENTED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY RESIDES IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS RESULTING IN MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS THE AREA. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, THIS BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE NATION'S. AS AN
MID-SECTION. WEAK ASCENT EMBEDDED INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MUCH OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND RESIDE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY.
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY AFTER SUNRISE ON SATURDAY, AS THE
FIRST AREA OF ASCENT EXITS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD
STILL LINGER ACROSS NAMELY EAST MISSISSIPPI. THE BOUNDARY WILL
STILL BE MEANDERING SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR DURING THIS
TIME. AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ROLLS AROUND, STRONGER ASCENT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE AXIS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS SWINGING
INTO AND THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS, ALONG
WITH SOME SUBTLE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT NAMELY ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE INSTABILITY WILL
BE BETTER AND SOME DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL EXIST. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS QUITE LOW, A STRAY STORM OR TWO
BECOMING INTENSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI DURING THE MID AND LATE
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS BEING PUSHED SOUTHWARD IN
RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
CONVECTION WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT EXITS
THE FORECAST AREA. NOTICEABLY COLDER DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE NEW
WORK WEEK WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S, WITH
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EXPECTED MONDAY, AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
TUESDAY. THEN FOR LOWS, THEY'LL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO AROUND
40 SUNDAY NIGHT, MIDDLE 20S TO LOWER 30S MONDAY NIGHT, AND THEN 20S
TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN REBOUNDING WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, BUT RAIN CHANCES ALSO CURRENTLY LOOK TO BEGIN INCREASING
THURSDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POISED TO AFFECT THE REGION. /19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOME -SHRA ACTIVITY TO START THE PERIOD.
INCREASING CHANCES FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AFTER 06Z, WITH
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH AFTER THAT TIME FRAME. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 57 71 37 52 / 50 30 20 0
MERIDIAN 57 74 37 54 / 80 60 40 0
VICKSBURG 54 69 37 55 / 50 30 10 0
HATTIESBURG 68 80 42 59 / 40 70 50 0
NATCHEZ 58 72 38 56 / 40 30 10 0
GREENVILLE 48 61 34 51 / 50 20 0 0
GREENWOOD 50 67 34 52 / 70 20 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
06/19
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page