475
FXUS64 KJAN 090616 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
116 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
REST OF TONIGHT...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
DISSIPATE SOON THEREAFTER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, AS A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT EMBEDDED IN ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES TO EXIT THE
REGION. AS HEATING WANES AND THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT, CONVECTION
WILL COME TO AN END, WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAY
BREAK FRIDAY, WITH LOW STRATUS ALSO DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR
LOW TONIGHT TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S.
THE ONGOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS, NO MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE MADE ON TONIGHT'S UPDATE. /19/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT:
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH
FOR SOME UNCAPPED CONVECTION. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
CLEAR, THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT STORMS IN THOSE AREAS TO THE
NORTHEAST COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DECENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR TO ORGANIZE UPDRAFTS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THIS EVENING. RESIDUAL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
COULD LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
HOWEVER HREF PROBABILITIES ARE FAIRLY LOW, AND LOW PWAT VALUES AT
PRESENT SUGGEST ONLY SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR FOG TO
DEVELOP IN LOW-LYING AREAS.
FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CUTTING OFF
FROM BUCKLED FLOW OVER THE GULF COAST. RETURNING MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH TOMORROW COULD SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
A RESULTING REX BLOCK PATTERN INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR HOW
QUICKLY THE CUTOFF LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD AGAIN, BUT GUIDANCE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT FOR SHOWING THE LOW MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST AROUND
TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE U.S. WEST
COAST. WHILE THIS LOW SPINS OVER OUR GULF COAST REGION, EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, CHANCES FOR RAIN (ESPECIALLY FARTHER
EAST), AND TEMPERATURES TO LOCK IN NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR MID MAY.
ONCE THE LOW BEGINS TO PUSH NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE EFFECTS OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING OUT
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO OUR
FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO 90S COULD BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT FRI MAY 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT 0530Z AT ALL TAF SITES. VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREVAIL UNTIL AFTER 09Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOUTH WHERE LOWER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP EARLIER DUE TO A STALLED
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER 09Z MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WL BE PSBL
UNTIL AFTER 14Z WHEN CONDITIONS WL BEGIN IMPROVING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH BY 18Z AND SPREAD NORTH
INTO THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTN. THE TSRA WL
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 00Z SAT BUT AFFECT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 60 73 60 74 / 40 50 40 60
MERIDIAN 59 72 57 74 / 40 60 40 70
VICKSBURG 60 72 59 71 / 30 40 30 50
HATTIESBURG 62 76 60 77 / 50 60 30 60
NATCHEZ 61 71 58 71 / 30 40 30 50
GREENVILLE 58 70 59 73 / 20 20 30 50
GREENWOOD 58 73 59 76 / 20 30 40 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/NF/22
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