189
FXUS64 KJAN 140835
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
335 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- "LIMITED" HEAT STRESS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH TODAY.
- "LIMITED THREAT" FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP INTO
THE CWA THIS EVENING AND THEN STALL MID WAY THROUGH OUR CWA BY
MORNING. THIS WILL LIMIT HEAT STRESS CONCERNS TO THE SOUTH TODAY.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES THAT WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY AND SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS HAD STRETCHING FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE PERSISTENT AND RATHER FLAT MID LEVEL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF WILL TRY TO HANG TOUGH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT
DROPS INTO OUR REGION. LOCAL RADARS STILL SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM LAST
EVENING'S CONVECTION TO OUR NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OUR TWO BUT, DAYTIME HEATING OF OUR
MOIST AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST ZONES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE HELD DOWN SEVERAL
DEGREES COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHEST TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AND THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOWER 100'SF.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT CLOSE TO NORMAL
THANKS TO THE WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED. /22/
MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...
A SLOWLY SAGGING, NEARLY STALLED, FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BECOME THE
FOCUS FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THIS WEEK ACROSS THE
AREA. SEVERAL SURGES OF RICH GULF MOISTURE WITH PWAT IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT
RAIN RATES AND MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW TOTALS IN THE 2-4 INCH RANGE, LIKELY IN A SHORT PERIOD. AN
ADDITIONAL SURGE OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. GIVEN ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, THIS ADDITIONAL ROUND WOULD LIKELY EXACERBATE FLOOD
THREAT, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE GREAT AMOUNTS DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINLY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE, BUT THERE IS OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE FEATURE ITSELF. RAIN LIKELY CONTINUES EVEN IN THE
WAKE AS THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL RIDGE REINFORCE
THE TROPICAL AIRMASS. RIGHT NOW, NOT SEEING ANY POTENTIAL BREAK FROM
THE WET PATTERN UNTIL BEYOND THE PERIOD. /SAS/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SCATTERED TSRA WL AFFECT GTR UNTIL 08Z. ADDITIONAL -SHRA MAY COME
IN VCTY OF GTR AND GWO AFTER 08Z BEFORE DISSIPATING BY 10Z. AWAY
FROM THE TSRA VFR CONDITIONS WL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE UNTIL
THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA WL AFFECT THE NW HALF OF THE
AREA THROUGH 00Z BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OF DURING THE EVENING.
A GUSTY SW WIND 16-20KTS WL DEVELOP AT MOST TAF SITES BY 17Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z BEFORE SUBSIDING. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 73 81 70 / 10 90 100 80
MERIDIAN 94 73 81 69 / 10 80 80 80
VICKSBURG 93 72 80 70 / 30 90 90 80
HATTIESBURG 94 75 84 72 / 10 60 80 70
NATCHEZ 95 74 82 72 / 30 90 90 90
GREENVILLE 91 70 79 67 / 40 80 70 40
GREENWOOD 91 71 81 67 / 40 70 70 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SAS20/22
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