798
FXUS64 KJAN 241709 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1209 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE AND
FLASH FLOODING THREAT TODAY.) AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.
- DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BUILD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS
WEEKEND.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
A CLOUDY AND LESS HUMID AFTERNOON IS ON TAP, WITH RAIN AND STORMS
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MIGRATING
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVERAGE
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THERE ARE ALSO A FEW MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTICES (MCV) AROUND, WITH ONE EVIDENT MOVING ACROSS
NORTHERN LAUDERDALE COUNTY. WE REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH BETTER MOISTURE AND
DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. THIS
IS GENERALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MS INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS LA. THIS IS
LEADING TO A GOOD TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OF MID 80S INTO CENTRAL LA
TO SOUTHEAST MS WHILE ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S TO THE
NORTH UNDER THE CLOUD SHIELD. THERE IS IS SOME BULK SHEAR ACROSS
THE AREA, SO THE INHERITED MARGINAL RISK IS VALID. THERE WAS AN
EARLIER EXPANSION AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS OR A
COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS AS WELL. MORNING MICROBURST CHECKLIST,
INCLUDING 12Z SOUNDING MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE NEAR STORM
ENVIRONMENT (NSE) THIS AFTERNOON, IS GENERALLY LITTLE RISK IN
CENTRAL MS WHILE SOME LOW BUT MORE SUPPORTIVE INTO CENTRAL LA AND
SOUTHWEST MS. THERE ARE A FEW CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS THAT
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION OF NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED
STORMS, WHICH WOULD FAVORABLY ALIGN FOR CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY SOME HAIL. THIS IS MOST LIKELY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20
INTO HIGHWAY 84 BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT EVEN FURTHER NORTH. IN
ADDITION, THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS UP TO 3
INCHES, POSSIBLY LOCALLY HIGHER. KEPT THE INHERITED LIMITED FOR
FLASH FLOODING TO REFLECT THE EARLIER EXPANSION TO THE MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE IN THE HWO GRAPHICS. MOST ORGANIZED STORMS OR
FLASH FLOODING THREATS WILL WIND DOWN INTO EARLY EVENING (9PM TO
10PM). HREF AND REFS FOG PROBABILITIES INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL
INTO NORTHEAST MS AND AN HWO GRAPHIC MAY BE NEEDED AS WELL.
FOR FORECAST ELEMENTS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20, SOME 3F TO 6F DEGREES BELOW (82F TO
86F), WHILE SEASONABLE TO THE SOUTH (88F TO 92F). RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN HIGH (50 TO 90 PERCENT RANGE), WITH HIGHEST FOCUSED IN
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. SOME OVERNIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL
PERSIST IN SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION TONIGHT, AND CANNOT RULE
OUT ANOTHER ROUND MOVING BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST LATE OVERNIGHT.
SEASONABLE LOWS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. UPDATES ARE OUT. /DC/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY:
AN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING MCV COMPLEX FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION
PRODUCED A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA TO START THE DAY.
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SHOWERS/STORM
CHANCES FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN TO
PREVIOUS DAYS OF ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH A MARGINAL
RISK (1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL UP TO QUARTER-SIZE. IN ADDITION TO A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS, CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STORMS WITH
HIGHER RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING STORMS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS.
RIDGING PATTERNS BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST REGION (SE
CONUS) FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING THE WET WEATHER TO AN END.
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLY TO COVER THE MS RIVER/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY
THROUGH MID-WEEK. AS BOTH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY INCREASES, DANGEROUS
HEAT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES 105-115 ACROSS THE
THE ARKLAMISS REGION. /SW/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR
CEILINGS TO DEVELOP BY 12Z AND LIFT TO PREVAILING VFR AGAIN BY
18Z. SHRA AND TSRA ARRIVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
WILL BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AND VARIABLE VISIBILITY. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 85 70 90 73 / 90 30 30 0
MERIDIAN 87 69 89 72 / 80 40 40 10
VICKSBURG 86 71 90 73 / 80 30 40 0
HATTIESBURG 90 72 90 73 / 60 50 50 10
NATCHEZ 89 73 92 73 / 50 20 10 0
GREENVILLE 84 70 89 74 / 80 30 50 0
GREENWOOD 84 69 90 73 / 80 20 30 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/SW/NF
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