158
FXUS64 KJAN 131923
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
223 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT HEAT REMAINS POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME
ISOLATED CHANCES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (597-598DM) WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASINGLY WARM THERMAL PROFILES AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SQUASHED AND
SHUNTED TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY
LIMITED COVERAGE. THE HUMIDITY MAY DROP A TOUCH INTO FRIDAY, BUT
OVERALL MESSAGING OF DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS THE SAME. NO CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE INHERITED HEAT HWO GRAPHIC AND SUBSEQUENT
HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STAY COOL AND HYDRATED AND
CHECK ON VULNERABLE POPULATIONS.
SOME OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE SUMMER ARE EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS
PEAKING INTO THE LOW 100S ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THERMAL PROFILE CLIMATOLOGY (22C TO 25C AT 850MB) INDICATE
POTENTIAL ANALOGS INTO THE LOW 100S (101F TO 103F AND MEDIAN
AROUND 102F), WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES EXCEEDING THAT. REGARDLESS,
DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, EVEN IF WE MIX A LITTLE
MORE EFFICIENTLY AT TIMES. SOME PORTION OF THE AREA MAY NEED TO BE
UPGRADED TO A "SIGNIFICANT" RISK AND SUBSEQUENT EXTREME HEAT
WARNING, BUT THIS FOCUS LOOKS FAR ENOUGH OUT IN TIME TO HOLD OFF
JUST YET. THE ONGOING HEAT HEADLINES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LIMITED RELIEF AT NIGHT.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES REMAIN LIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
ONLY PERIPHERAL AREAS SEEING SCARCE SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE,
MAINLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME RELAXATION OF THE STOUT RIDGE
WILL OCCUR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASED
DEEPER MOISTURE, INCREASED CONVERGENCE FROM FRONTAL ZONE SAGGING
SOUTHWARD MAY CAUSE SOME BETTER RAIN COVERAGE INTO EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
VERY ISOLATED SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /DL/DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 98 76 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 97 77 99 76 / 10 0 10 0
VICKSBURG 97 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 99 77 100 76 / 10 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 98 74 100 74 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 99 78 100 76 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 97 77 99 75 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR MSZ018-019-025>066-
072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
DC/DL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page