166
FXUS64 KJAN 141022 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
522 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- DRY WEATHER WITH MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A SIGNIFICANT DRY COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG NORTH WINDS AND
FIRE DANGER CONCERNS TO THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 819 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
IN THE NEAR-TERM, UPDATED FORECAST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE. WITH DEEP MIXING AND DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING MORE
OF THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW, LEANED ON 10TH PERCENTILE NBM DEW
POINTS AND OTHER RELIABLY DRIER GUIDANCE FOR THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. SEVERAL LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST/EAST
MISSISSIPPI TODAY REPORTED A DEW POINT BELOW 50 DEGREES, AND THE
SAME IS EXPECTED ACROSS MORE CENTRAL MS ZONES TOMORROW. WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AGAIN, RESULTING RH VALUES ACROSS MOST
OF OUR AREA WILL BE IN THE 20-30% RANGE. IN COORDINATION WITH
LOCAL FORESTRY AND LAND MANAGEMENT ASSESSMENT VEGETATION AND DEAD
FUELS, EVEN WINDS OF AROUND 10 MPH ARE CONCERNING FOR FIRE
SPREAD AT THIS TIME. OUR FIRE DANGER GRAPHIC HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO
"ELEVATED" FIRE DANGER MESSAGING FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE ARRIVAL OF A DRY COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUED BREEZY
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE OUR MAIN FOCUS HEADING INTO LATE WEEK.
WITH COOL AND DRY AUTUMN NIGHTS, RECREATIONAL FIRES BECOME MORE
COMMON. IT'S IMPORTANT TO HEED ANY LOCAL BURN BANS AND AVOID
BURNING NEAR DRY VEGETATION, AS FALLEN LEAVES AND DROUGHT
STRESSED GRASS AND TREES CAN EASILY CATCH FIRE IF SPARKS OR
EMBERS SPREAD. /NF/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (TUESDAY)...
THROUGH TOMORROW (THURSDAY): MORNING SURFACE AND GOES EAST WATER
VAPOR/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX.
CONTINUED WARMTH AND POTENTIAL RECORDS INTO MID OCTOBER REMAIN
LIKELY. MEAN RIDGE AROUND 593-595DM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. DRY WEATHER
AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN 92-96F RANGE AND LOWS
AROUND 60 DEGREES IN EAST MS TO MID TO UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST DELTA) WILL BE THE NORM. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE
NEARING RECORDS (AVERAGE IS 81).
THERE IS ENOUGH AFTERNOON MIXING AND DROP IN AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
INTO CRITICAL LEVELS (20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE TODAY). EARLIER
COORDINATION WAS COMPLETED WITH WITH LOCAL FORESTRY AND LAND
MANAGEMENT ASSESSMENT VEGETATION AND DEAD FUELS, EVEN WINDS OF
AROUND 10 MPH ARE CONCERNING FOR FIRE SPREAD AT THIS TIME. GRAPHIC
WAS UPGRADED EARLIER TO ADVERTISE HEIGHTENED MESSAGING AND
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER HWO GRAPHIC INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP MIXING
WILL ALLOW FOR MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO DIP
(30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE) INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY GIVEN
DRY WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT.
THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES TO THE EAST WILL KEEP LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND HEAT AND HUMIDITY. HEAT INDICES WILL PEAK
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S BUT NOTHING ON THE ORDER OF DANGEROUS HEAT
STRESS POTENTIAL. RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND REMAINED CENTERED EAST
LEADING TO A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW AND LOWER DEEP MOISTURE THAN
CURRENTLY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE ANY SHOWERS TO LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF
THE REGION.
LATE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK (FRIDAY INTO TUESDAY): FALL
FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS LIKELY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AN
UPPER LOW IS EJECTING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS MID TO LATE WEEK IS
PROGGED TO PHASE WITH DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS/UPPER JET DIVING INTO
CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS GOOD
CLUSTERING OF SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION. THE EVOLUTION HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE MORE PHASED AND AMPLIFIED MERIDIONAL AND POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH. STOUT, DRY COLD FRONT WILL DRIVE DEWPOINTS FALLING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S (36-40F). COOL DOWN REMAINS LIKELY THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM FRIDAY (76-91F), WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S (60-66F) THAT MORNING AND LOWS THAT NIGHT
MID TO UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 (45-50F) TO
MID TO UPPER 50S (51-54F) TO THE SOUTH. SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT
FALL TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD AREAWIDE INTO NEXT WEEKEND (HIGHS OF
69-76F SATURDAY AND 72-82F SUNDAY AND LOWS OF 45-49F NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 TO 50-52F TO THE SOUTH). WITH CONTINUED DROUGHT
STRESSED VEGETATION, THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.
1035-1040MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDING WILL BUILD EAST OUT OF THE LEE
SIDE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE MID WEST, LEADING TO 6-8MB
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULTANT GUSTY GRADIENT WIND OF 20-25MPH
SUSTAINED AND WIND GUSTS REACHING 30-35MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL BE
A CONCERN AND A FIRE DANGER GRAPHIC/ELEVATED RISK MAY NEED A
POTENTIAL CATEGORICAL UPGRADE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS
STILL HIGHLIGHTING A RELATIVELY RARE (FOR OUR AREA) MARGINAL
OUTLOOK FOR FIRE CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WITH THE EXPECTED DRY COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS (POPS AROUND 15%) WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST AND SOUTHWEST MS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST LA HEADING INTO MONDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY. /DC/NF/CR/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
A PERIOD LIFR STRATUS/DENSE FOG IS ONGOING AT KPIB AND KHBG THROUGH
14/14Z-15Z WEDNESDAY AND BETWEEN 14/11Z-14Z AT HEZ. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL A MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD AT
THE TAF SITES. ADDITIONAL IFR TO LIFR FOG/STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AT
HBG AND PIB AROUND 15/09Z-10Z THURSDAY AND CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
HEZ THROUGH THE END OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. /DC/NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 93 64 92 64 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 93 61 91 62 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 93 63 92 62 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 93 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 93 62 91 63 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 93 66 92 64 / 10 10 0 0
GREENWOOD 94 64 93 63 / 10 10 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ062>066-
072>074.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/DC/CR
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