029
FXUS64 KJAN 101814
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1214 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE ARE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
- STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK:
A WAVY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OVER THE CONUS,
WITH RIDGING OVER THE EAST AND TROUGHING OVER THE WEST BEING THE
PREDOMINANT FEATURES. THIS WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES MUCH ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS AND TROUGH EJECTIONS WILL BRING INTERMITTENT RAIN
CHANCES AND STORMS.
A SHORTWAVE AND TRAILING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE AN ONSET
OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL
STEADILY PROPAGATE SOUTH TOMORROW ALONG THE FRONT. THE FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE COAST LEAVING DRY AIR IN ITS WAKE FOR THURSDAY.
RAIN CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE RETURNING WARM
FRONT, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH AND BEGIN A RECOVERY OF
AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE FOR SATURDAY. IN
RESPONSE, A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN AND PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. THIS COULD BRING A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS GIVEN MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND FORCING. HOWEVER, LACK OF QUALITY MOISTURE
RECOVERY AND WEAK INSTABILITY INTRODUCES SOME UNCERTAINTY. THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK IS SUPPRESSED AND WOULD FAVOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT. OF HIGHER CONFIDENCE
HOWEVER, IS THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. A PRESSURE GRADIENT OF 8-10MB OVER THE AREA
COULD LEAD TO GUSTY WINDS ASIDE FROM STORMS AND WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR A POTENTIAL HWO GRAPHIC. WHILE HEAVY RAIN ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE ANOMALOUS 1.5-1.7 PWAT, THE QUICK
MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM THROWS IMPACTS INTO QUESTION. WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY OF THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AS WELL AGAIN ON SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
QUIET WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BENEATH A REINFORCED
UPPER RIDGE. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS INTO NEXT WEEK AS WELL. /SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
LOW STRATUS LIFTING INTO A SCATTERED BROKEN MVFR DECK WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR, BUT EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THEN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS IN NORTHERN MS AND RE-
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BY 12Z.
/NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 59 72 48 68 / 20 20 0 0
MERIDIAN 57 73 43 68 / 20 20 0 0
VICKSBURG 59 71 48 69 / 20 20 0 0
HATTIESBURG 58 78 51 72 / 0 20 10 0
NATCHEZ 59 75 52 74 / 10 20 0 0
GREENVILLE 53 62 41 63 / 50 20 0 0
GREENWOOD 55 65 41 66 / 60 30 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/NF
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