466
FXUS64 KJAN 171154
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
654 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, BUT
LOWER HUMIDITY SHOULD HELP TO REDUCE HEAT STRESS, WITH DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS CONFINED TO ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE
NATCHEZ TRACE.
- DANGEROUS LEVELS OF HEAT STRESS WILL BUILD BACK IN AREAWIDE THIS
WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
TODAY THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK (WEDNESDAY)...
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND: THE GULF COAST STATES REMAIN ENTRENCHED
UNDER A SPRAWLING HIGH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT (598 TO 600DM).
RAP ANALYSIS/WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THE CENTER OF MID LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE MID SOUTH TO TN VALLEY REGION. THIS
PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD TODAY INTO FRIDAY, LEADING
ANOMALOUS WARMTH, SOME 8-15F ABOVE NORMAL (95F TO 101F). DRIER AIR
IS EVIDENT IN GOES EAST TOTAL PWS (0.9 TO 1.3 INCHES) AND IS
PROGGED TO SHIFT INTO THE REGION AS THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHIFTS
WESTWARD. WHILE IT WILL REMAIN HOT, DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT DECREASED. LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 6-12F
ABOVE (70-75F THIS MORNING AND A TOUCH COOLER TONIGHT TO THE
SOUTH, 67-70F ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20, WHILE WARMER TO THE NORTH,
71F-74F).
HIGHS CONTINUE TO MODERATE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH AN INFLUX OF
DEEPER MOISTURE. A WESTWARD PROPAGATING UPPER LOW/SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL LEAD TO AN INFLUX OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ALOFT AND HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE, WHICH SUPPORTS LESS
MIXING AND MORE CONCERNS OF DANGEROUS HEAT. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100F (97-102F), WITH 101-102F
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN OBSERVATION SITES. ADDED SOME
TARGETED LIMITED HEAT GRAPHICS IN THE HWO FOR TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND (ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE TODAY INTO
FRIDAY AND AREAWIDE INTO THE WEEKEND). HOLDING OFF ON ANY HEAT
HEADLINES FOR NOW. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MINIMAL, WITH SOME SLIGHT
UPTICK IN ISOLATED/LOW CHANCE RAIN AND STORM COVERAGE IN THE PINE
BELT LATE WEEKEND ON SUNDAY (15-30 PERCENT).
NEXT WEEK (THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY): AS THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/COLD CORE LOW PROPAGATES INTO THE MID WEST
STATES THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE MID LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST GULF IS PROGGED TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THIS FEATURE WILL
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE MEAN FLOW TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LESS FOCUSED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BUT PERSISTENT DEEP MOISTURE
(PWS AROUND 1.75 TO GREATER THAN 2 INCHES). THERE IS PROGGED FOR
ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE ZONE AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO SINK INTO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE
LESS STOUT AND CENTERED OVER EAST TX, HIGHS WILL BECOME LESS
SEASONABLY WARM, DROPPING FROM 8F TO 14F ABOVE TO 6F TO 12F ABOVE
(95F TO 100F EARLY WEEK TO 91F TO 95F BY MIDWEEK). RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE (15-30 PERCENT) ON AVERAGE
AREAWIDE, WITH MEDIUM CHANCE (EXCEEDING 30 PERCENT) IN THE PINE
BELT. DANGEROUS HEAT CONCERNS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY WEEK AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE HWO HEAT GRAPHICS FOR MONDAY AND
SOMEWHAT LESS OPPRESSIVE HEAT THROUGH MIDWEEK. /DC/
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
ALL TAF SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 95 70 97 71 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 94 69 98 71 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 96 70 97 71 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 93 67 96 69 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 95 69 97 70 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 99 73 100 73 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 99 72 100 72 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/15
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