460
FXUS64 KJAN 251840
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
140 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO VERY DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOW
HUMIDITY EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
THROUGH THE WEEK...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK: SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR
REGION IS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF (NO) WEATHER HEADING INTO THE NEW
WEEK. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEAST US EXTENDS ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND OVER THE GULF COAST. THIS SUBSIDENT, DRY WEATHER
REGIME WITH LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY, AND PERHAPS LONGER DEPENDING ON WHICH LONGER
RANGE GUIDANCE BEST VERIFIES.
HAVE EXTENDED THE "ELEVATED" FIRE DANGER GRAPHIC ACCORDINGLY AS
LOW HUMIDITY AND WARM TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE STRESSED AND DRIED
OUT VEGETATION TRANSITIONING OUT OF THE GROWING SEASON. THE RIDGE
WILL BE STRONGEST TODAY AND MONDAY, AND THEN SHOULD GRADUALLY BE
SUPPRESSED BY THE WESTERLIES THEREAFTER, BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN SENSIBLE WEATHER AT THE SURFACE, THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY.
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...
BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE GENERAL IDEA IN THE GUIDANCE IS FOR AT LEAST
SOME MOIST RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH A
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT THAT COULD BRING AT LEAST LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN
CHANCES. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE
NEXT SUNDAY. THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY IS 7 DAYS (~168 HOURS) OUT,
AS SUCH THERE IS A LOT OF DIVERGENCE IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OUR UPDATES AS WE APPROACH THE WEEKEND AND
TIMING/INTENSITY DETAILS CAN BE HAVE MORE CERTAINTY AND MORE
CONVERGENT SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS OF ANY RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES
FOR THE UPCOMING HALLOWEEN DAY/NIGHT MAY PUSH 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL. /OAJ/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS GENERALLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS FROM THE EAST
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 50 80 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 47 77 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 50 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 48 81 49 83 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 53 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 52 79 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 48 79 49 81 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/OAJ/NF
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