379
FXUS64 KJAN 300446 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1046 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF EVENINGS, THERE WERE PLENTY OF MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. LOCAL RADARS STILL SHOWED A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS WELL. MOST RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SOME LOW STRATUS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
AND LOUISIANA GULF COAST THAT IS PROGGED TO SPREAD INLAND OVER
NIGHT. THERE WERE ALSO AN AREA OF CLEARING OVER OUR PARISHES AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. EACH OF THESE FEATURES MAY HELP
LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT THAT MAY BECOME DENSE BY MORNING BUT AS
THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN UP THANKS IN PART TO A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO CLOUD COVER WERE MADE
WITH THE FORECAST UPDATE. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...BOTH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND
RIDGING ALOFT WILL OVERALL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, BUT BOTH FEATURES WILL BE SHUNTED FURTHER
TO THE EAST AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE FORECAST
AREA LATER ON THURSDAY. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME
LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MOISTURE ALOFT FURTHER INCREASES ACROSS THE
CWA. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
ON THURSDAY, WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
THE INTERSTATE 55 CORRIDOR. UNDER PREDOMINATELY CLOUDY SKIES, LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE. WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM QUICKLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE REGION. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, EXPECT SUSTAINED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 20-
25 MPH, GUSTING BETWEEN 30-40 MPH AT TIMES. AS A RESULT, A
"LIMITED" THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS EXISTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A "WIND ADVISORY" COULD ALSO BE
HOISTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THURSDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, AND IT'S ATTENDANT
TROUGH, WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND
INTO THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND
LIKEWISE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THOSE SAME REGIONS, WHILE DRAGGING
A COLD FRONT EAST AND THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL PROMPT A NARROW LINE OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT, THAT'LL TRAVERSE THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THAT TIMEFRAME.
WHILE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE ON THE LOW SIDE,
GENERALLY 200-400 J/KG OF CAPE CURRENTLY AT BEST, AMPLE WIND SHEAR
WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. THIS, ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG
THE FRONT, WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS.
CURRENTLY, THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SUCH STORMS GENERALLY RESIDES
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BELZONI TO BOLTON TO BUDE MISSISSIPPI
WHERE THE BEST CONGLOMERATION OF FORCING, SHEAR, AND INSTABILITY
EXISTS, AND WHERE A "SLIGHT" RISK OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS. IN THIS
AREA, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FROM STORMS BOWING ALONG THE SQUALL LINE, BUT TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG ANY BREAKS IN THE LINE. SURROUNDING THIS "SLIGHT"
RISK TO THE NORTH AND TO THE EAST UP TO A EUPORA TO FOREST TO
COLUMBIA MISSISSIPPI LINE, A "MARGINAL" RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS EXISTS. AGAIN, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE, BUT A TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.
AS FAR AS RAINFALL IS CONCERNED, THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE ACROSS NORTHERN, CENTRAL, AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA WHERE TOTALS ON THE ORDER OF 1-1.5 INCHES, AND LOCALLY
HIGHER, ARE POSSIBLE. THEN ACROSS EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI,
RAINFALL TOTALS LOOK TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.25-1 INCH. WHILE SOME
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT, DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, FLOODING
IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL DECREASE AS THE SQUALL LINE
MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO EAST AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FRIDAY
MORNING. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION DURING THE COURSE OF
FRIDAY, BOTH RAIN AND EVENTUALLY CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE CWA. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL, BUT THEY'LL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
QUIET WEATHER CURRENTLY LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, MOISTURE, AND THUS TEMPERATURES, WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE CWA. LOOK FOR HIGHS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO CLIMB
INTO THE 70S, WITH LOWS BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT FALLING INTO
THE 50S. /19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
LOCAL RADARS SHOWED -SHRA THAT MAY BRING REDUCED CONDITIONS TO
GLH-GWO THIS EVENING BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH 12Z. AFTER 12Z MVFR CIGS AND OCNL IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. AFTER 15Z A
GUSTY WIND 20-25KTS WILL DEVELOP AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 55 74 57 69 / 30 40 90 20
MERIDIAN 51 72 57 71 / 20 20 80 40
VICKSBURG 55 76 55 68 / 30 50 90 0
HATTIESBURG 54 74 61 73 / 10 10 90 40
NATCHEZ 58 77 57 68 / 20 50 90 10
GREENVILLE 54 71 52 64 / 50 70 90 0
GREENWOOD 54 72 55 67 / 50 60 90 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/22
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