396
FXUS64 KJAN 111639 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1139 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING HEAT AND SEASONABLY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN
ELEVATED HEAT STRESS CONCERNS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASINGLY SCARCE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT COVERAGE MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN
BY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
UPPER RIDGING PRESENTLY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST
WILL BUILD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
RESULTING IN INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS STILL CANNOT BE
RULED OUT EACH DAY, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESSER COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, A MUGGY AIRMASS WILL PERSIST, AND COMBINED
WITH INCREASING HEAT, IT WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED HEAT STRESS
CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR TODAY, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT GENERALLY WEST OF I-55, WHERE HEAT INDICES ARE MORE LIKELY
TO PERSIST IN THE 105-110F RANGE OVER A LONGER DURATION OF THE
DAYTIME. OF COURSE, IT WILL STILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY WARM AND HUMID
EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS WILL
APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGITS AT MANY SITES, AND SEVERAL WARM MINIMUM
TEMP RECORDS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WILL BE THREATENED. WITH
HEAT INDICES STILL INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS, ADDITIONAL HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE ALMOST CERTAIN. THERE IS AT LEAST SOME HOPE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR INCREASED MIXING TO
BRING DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE 60S DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS.
WHILE THIS MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO GET US OUT OF THE HEAT STRESS
DANGER ZONE, IT COULD AT LEAST KEEP US OUT OF THE SIGNIFICANT
HEAT STRESS CATEGORY. OTHERWISE, AN INFLUX OF GREATER DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL YIELD A RETURN TO DAILY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. /DL/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS, UNDER SCATTERED TO
BROKEN (SCT-BKN) CUMULUS DECK BETWEEN 3-6KFT (MAINLY DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS). SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY (SUSTAINED LESS THAN 10MPH AND HIGHEST GUSTS
UP TO 15MPH). SURFACE WINDS LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 96 77 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 95 76 96 77 / 10 0 10 0
VICKSBURG 95 76 96 77 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 97 76 98 77 / 10 0 10 10
NATCHEZ 96 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 96 78 98 79 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 94 77 96 78 / 10 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025-
034>036-040>043-047-048-053-054-059>062.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
DL/DC
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