790
FXUS64 KJAN 201941
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
141 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM A
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM A WINTER STORM
THIS WEEKEND. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WERE
TO ENHANCE AND EXPAND MESSAGING FOR THE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON OUR
LOCAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK GRAPHICS, AND TO GENERALLY TREND
UPWARD FOR QPF DURING THE PERIOD OF WINTER WEATHER AND TRANSITIONAL
TIME FRAMES. THE BROAD PICTURE IS COMING INTO BETTER FOCUS, BUT
SPECIFIC AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS COULD STILL CHANGE AT THIS TIME FRAME
OUT FROM THIS WINTER STORM EVENT. LATEST GRAPHICS AND MESSAGING ARE
BASED ON A REASONABLE RANGE OF POSSIBLE ICE/SLEET/SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WE HAVE ALSO ADDED A GRAPHIC TO LOCAL PRODUCTS
SHOWING REASONABLE EARLIEST ONSET TIMES FOR WINTER WEATHER ACROSS
VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL STEER REINFORCING COOL AIR
MASSES TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK, WITH ONE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TOMORROW GENERATING SOME LIFT AND MOISTENING
FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IN THE AREA. BUT MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
IS THE TRENDING MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE STRENGTH AND EXTENT OF AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS DROPPING OUT OF CANADA INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE CORE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WITH
1045MB+ PRESSURE VALUES WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BEFORE
WEAKENING, BUT THE EXPANSIVE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STRONG NORTH-
SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. TO OUR WEST, A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE PACIFIC OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL MORE
LIKELY INFLUENCE WHAT DEGREE OF WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WE EXPERIENCE
HERE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING TOWARD A
CONSENSUS ON THE SCENARIO FOR BETTER NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF MOISTURE
AND THEREFORE MORE EXPANSIVE WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS THROUGH THE GULF
SOUTH AND MIDSOUTH REGIONS. THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES FOR HOW
PROGRESSIVE THE SYSTEM WILL BE (AS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWEST LOWS AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR), BUT SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT IS THERE TO EXTEND THE
THREAT FOR WINTRY PRECIP FALLING INTO THE MORNING AT LEAST ON
SUNDAY. REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT SETUP, THE LIKELIHOOD OF AT LEAST
1/4 INCH (ICE STORM WARNING CRITERIA) HAS INCREASED TO AT LEAST 50-
60% FOR AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE.
CHANCES EVEN INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FOR 1/4 INCH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE AROUND 20-40% AT THIS TIME. REASONABLE UPPER
LIMITS INDICATE AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION
IN THE BASTROP, LAKE PROVIDENCE, HAMBURG, GREENVILLE, AND CLEVELAND
AREAS. THIS ICE STORM THREAT WAS THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR EXPANDING
THE WINTER STORM IMPACT AREAS ON LOCAL GRAPHICS AND IN MESSAGING.
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL STILL APPEARS TO BE MOST LIKELY NORTH AND WEST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS THERE. AND
SLEET MIXING IN WITH FREEZING RAIN COULD ALTER SOME IMPACTS, THOUGH
WOULD STILL POSE A THREAT TO TRAVEL.
THE REINFORCING NATURE OF THE AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING
THROUGH IT WILL LIKELY KEEP A PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, AND EVEN SOME DELTA
AREAS MONDAY OR TUESDAY. WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 10S
AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY IN NEXT WEEK, DANGEROUS COLD IS
ALSO A HIGH RISK. TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW DAYS WILL
POSE RISK TO IN-GROUND AND EXPOSED ABOVE-GROUND WATER PIPES.
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO PREPARE FOR
THE EXTENDED COLD WEATHER. EXPECT REFINING OF DETAILS TO THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CAUTION SHOULD BE ADVISED FOR
REFERENCING ONLINE SNOWFALL MAPS FROM WEATHER MODELS. EVEN IF THE
LIQUID EQUIVALENT TOTALS ARE REASONABLE, MANY OF THESE OUTPUTS RELY
ON "STANDARD" SNOW-TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 10 TO 1. EXPECTED ATMOSPHERIC
PARAMETERS FOR THIS UPCOMING EVENT CURRENTLY LIMIT SNOW-TO-LIQUID
RATIOS CLOSER TO 2 TO 1 OR 4 TO 1, THUS REDUCING POSSIBLE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THAT COULD BE ACHIEVED FROM THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION
TOTALS. /NF/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH SOME
CEILINGS MOVING IN OVER NIGHT BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE
6,000FT. WIND SHEAR WILL BE FOUND TO THE FAR NORTH. /OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 38 58 50 62 / 0 60 80 60
MERIDIAN 33 58 46 61 / 0 30 70 60
VICKSBURG 39 58 48 61 / 0 70 90 60
HATTIESBURG 38 67 52 71 / 0 30 40 50
NATCHEZ 43 61 52 66 / 0 60 70 50
GREENVILLE 36 52 44 53 / 0 90 70 40
GREENWOOD 37 55 45 56 / 0 90 80 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/NF/OAJ
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