383
FXUS64 KJAN 162329 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
629 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK, WITH
INCREASING HEAT STRESS A CONCERN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL HELP KEEP WEATHER
CONDITIONS QUIET ACROSS OUR CWA. SKY CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AS
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BUILD FROM THE WEST. NIGHTTIME LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE LOW 70S AREAWIDE. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA LOOKING HEAD INTO FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
PEAKING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
70S, WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX READING VALUES TO CLIMB IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS. SEVERAL AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MS RIVER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS COULD SEE HEAT INDICES EXCEED 105 DEGREES.
DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED
FORECAST ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL HELP REINFORCE AN
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
HEAT GRAPHIC FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS AN "ELEVATED" RISK
FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED FOR OUR ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND, AND LIKELY EXPANDED AREAWIDE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT PORTIONS OF THE "ELEVATED" RISK COULD GET
UPGRADED TO A "SIGNIFICANT" RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WHERE HEAT
INDICES COULD EXCEED ABOVE 110 DEGREES AS WE GET CLOSER TO TUESDAY.
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA FOR TUESDAY.
REGARDING THE RAIN CHANCES, SOME GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO SHOW A
LITTLE BIT OF WEAKENING IN THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME CONVECTION WITH SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED FLOW. WHILE DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN, A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
AND NORTHEAST MS. CONFIDENCE IS STILL TOO LOW FOR DETAILS BUT
GENERALLY THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY IF IT DOES
OCCUR. THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVITY IN THE EAST BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH FLATTENS THE RIDGE
BRIEFLY, PLACING OUR AREA ON THE EASTERN FLANK. THIS COULD SET UP A
BRIEF NW FLOW REGIME THAT LEAVES US MORE VULNERABLE TO CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF HWY 84 HEADING INTO THURSDAY. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
WINDS UNDER 10 KTS. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 91 74 94 75 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 92 73 93 75 / 0 0 10 10
VICKSBURG 92 75 94 76 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 95 75 96 75 / 0 10 10 20
NATCHEZ 93 74 94 75 / 10 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 92 74 94 75 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 92 73 94 74 / 0 0 10 10
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
CR/CR/86
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