196
FXUS64 KJAN 261747
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1247 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY DUE
TO VERY DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY EACH DAY.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE THIS WEEK,
SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. DEEP MIXING
WILL ALLOW FOR LOW RH TO FALL IN THE 20S AND 30S. DESPITE FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS, WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN LIGHT OF THE VERY
DRY FUELS AND BURN BANS IN MANY COUNTIES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN EXPECTED SHORTWAVE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT
FIRE DANGER, OR EVEN ELIMINATE IT FOR THE WEEKEND.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET
WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER, AND OUR SOURCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN MANY AREAS IN SEVERAL WEEKS. IT WON'T BE A WASHOUT
OR DROUGHT BUSTING, BUT MAY MOISTEN FUELS AND PROVIDE SHORT TERM
RELIEF. TOTAL RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN HALF AND ONE INCH
FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH RAIN ENDING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
WEATHER RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE POLAR JET AIDS IN LEE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE ROCKIES EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND AT SOME POINT PHASES WILL SUBTROPICAL JET ENERGY, THOUGH
GUIDANCE IS VARIED ON TIMING OF THIS. THE SURFACE LOW WILL DRAG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA AROUND THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME AND MAY
GIVE ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW. /SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AROUND 5-10 KTS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 50 81 52 83 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 45 78 46 80 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 50 82 52 85 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 47 82 47 84 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 52 82 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 51 80 55 83 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 47 81 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SAS20/NF
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