035
FXUS64 KJAN 011829
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
129 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FURTHER ON FRIDAY.
- MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, ALONG WITH HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
- COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE WILL SUBTLY INCREASE
ACROSS THE REGION AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT HAS
RETURNED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON FRIDAY, WITH GOOD
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BEFORE BACKING DOWN
DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL AGAIN COME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS IS
WHEN THE PRESENCE OF A WEAKENING TROUGH WILL BE MOST OBSERVED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, AS RIDGING ALOFT FLATTENS AND GETS NUDGED MORE TO
THE EAST OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS SETUP, COUPLED
WITH ADDED ASCENT FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL JET JUST TO OUR NORTH, AND
DAYTIME HEATING CREATING AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS, WILL YIELD MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
AT THE MOMENT, THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER,
SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE MORE INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS. DUE TO THE VERY DRY SOIL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
AND OVERALL RAINFALL BEING SPREAD OUT OVER MULTIPLE DAYS, WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOODING ISN'T EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN
A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF
CONVECTION, COULD RESULT IN THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, AGAIN ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
MONDAY INTO MID-WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
CWA MONDAY. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST
AREA IN THIS FRONT'S WAKE THROUGH MID-WEEK. CURRENTLY WHILE RAIN
CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF. THIS SCENARIO WILL RESULT IN COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AS WE BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. /19/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE ONGOING WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS (SCT TO
BKN) IN THE 4-6KFT RANGE AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS, SOME SUSTAINED
UP TO 15MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 25MPH AT TIMES. THIS GUSTY WIND WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING (01/20Z THURSDAY TO 02/00Z FRIDAY). SHRA
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING, WHILE ISOLATED TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LOW STRATUS, WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO MVFR TO WORST CASE IFR, ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. TIMING IS MAINLY AFTER 02/09-11Z FRIDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH AROUND 14-15Z BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR. THIS WILL BE
THE MOST LIKELY AT CENTRAL TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TAF SITES. LIGHT SHRA
WILL REDEVELOP IN SOUTHEAST SITES JUST PRIOR TO THE END OF THE 18Z
TAF CYCLE. /DC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 71 92 70 88 / 10 30 20 60
MERIDIAN 69 91 69 87 / 0 40 30 60
VICKSBURG 71 92 70 88 / 20 20 30 60
HATTIESBURG 70 91 70 87 / 10 80 40 80
NATCHEZ 72 93 70 88 / 10 30 10 70
GREENVILLE 73 91 69 86 / 10 30 20 40
GREENWOOD 71 92 69 88 / 0 20 30 50
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
AC/DC
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