839
FXUS64 KJAN 170649
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
149 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY IN
PORTIONS OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
- CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
INCREASE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE, TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR
MID-APRIL. HIGHS IN A FEW PLACES MAY KNOCK ON THE 90 DEGREE MARK,
BUT WITH FLOW IN PLACE, GUIDANCE HAS NUDGED TO MOSTLY UPPER 80S
FOR FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS THE BOARD.
THIS SYSTEM'S LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOMORROW, WITH UPPER-LEVEL
FORCING FOCUSED NORTH OF OUR AREA. THE COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE
SOUTH WILL HELP FORCE SHOWERS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TOMORROW,
BUT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED. MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 300-400 J/KG RANGE DURING PEAK HEATING. WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING, LIMITED INSTABILITY, AND TRAILING NATURE OF
THE COLD FRONT, IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED. AVERAGE QPF IS AROUND
0.25-0.75 INCHES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, BUT LOCATIONS ALONG OR
NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE CORRIDOR COULD RECEIVE OVER AN INCH
OF RAIN WITH HEAVIER STORMS.
THE SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG FOR
MID-APRIL. 1025+ MB IS ABOUT 1 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED (AND DRY)
IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A LITTLE COOLER THAN 50 DEGREES TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THEN
WIDESPREAD IN THE 40S EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE
HIGH TRANSLATES FARTHER EASTWARD BY MIDWEEK, SOME MOISTURE RETURN
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA./NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO STAR THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES, BUT PATCHY FG
AND LOW STRATUS WILL BRING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT
KHEZ, KHBG, AND KPIB BY AROUND 12Z TODAY. ANY FOG AND STRATUS
SHOULD LIFT AND MIX TO PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS BY 15Z. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 88 63 83 50 / 0 0 30 80
MERIDIAN 88 60 85 49 / 0 0 10 70
VICKSBURG 88 64 83 50 / 0 0 40 80
HATTIESBURG 88 61 86 52 / 0 0 0 50
NATCHEZ 88 63 85 50 / 0 0 30 80
GREENVILLE 88 68 79 49 / 0 0 70 80
GREENWOOD 88 66 82 48 / 0 0 60 80
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF
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