226
FXUS64 KJAN 250005
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
605 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE ARKLAMISS REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH TO
OUR SOUTHEAST AND A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL MAINTAIN A
GUSTY SOUTH WIND ACROSS THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN UP AND GUSTY IN THE WEST BUT AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES, RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL ALSO
INCREASE MITIGATING FIRE DANGER CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH
TO THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY IT
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE TO THE WEST BACK ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES. THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO TRACK EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS LOW WILL ALSO TRY TO SEND A COLD FRONT
TOWARD OUR CWA BUT THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH BY
SUNSET WEDNESDAY AND NO RAIN IS EXPECTED IN OUR CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE WIND WILL BE GUSTY WEDNESDAY, LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HAVE INCREASED ENOUGH TO KEEP MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HIGH ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY FIRE DANGER
CONCERNS. THE CONTINUED SOUTH WIND ALONG WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP HOLD MORNING LOWS 15-20F WARMER THAN
THIS MORNING, AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10-15F WARMER THAN
THIS AFTERNOON. /22/
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY:
***SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES CONTINUES TO BE NEAR-ZERO TO MINIMUM FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT. NO CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST***
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT FRONT INTO
THE ARKLAMISS REGION, RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ON
THURSDAY WITH 50-85% POP CHANCES AREAWIDE. NOT ANTICIPATING SEVERE
WEATHER AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED; HOWEVER AN ORGANIZED STORM
OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE. THE
COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. POST FRONTAL
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN 10+ DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
POST FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING RAIN
CHANCES BACK. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP LINGERING
SHOWER CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA INTO THE NEW WEEK.
/SW/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING MORNING
MVFR CATEGORY CEILINGS AND GUSTY SSW SURFACE WINDS. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
/EC/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 45 73 59 75 / 0 0 20 60
MERIDIAN 42 72 57 74 / 0 0 20 60
VICKSBURG 48 74 60 76 / 0 0 20 60
HATTIESBURG 45 75 60 79 / 0 0 20 50
NATCHEZ 49 75 61 78 / 0 0 10 40
GREENVILLE 48 70 59 72 / 0 10 20 70
GREENWOOD 48 70 60 73 / 0 10 30 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22/SW/EC
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