577
FXUS64 KJAN 052338
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
638 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LESS HUMID CONDITIONS, WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND COOL PLEASANT
LOWS WILL EXIST DURING THE WEEK.
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE (80%) OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF LATER THIS WEEK. IT IS TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE WHAT, IF ANY, IMPACTS MAY OCCUR IN OUR AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
LIKEWISE SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THIS'LL RESULT IN LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON AND
PLEASANTLY COOL LOW TEMPERATURES EACH MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK.
RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BEGIN INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY MONITORING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST GULF OF AMERICA (I.E. INVEST 92L). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED LATER THIS WEEK, WITH NHC GIVING IT AN 80% CHANCE
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AT THE POSTING OF THIS DISCUSSION.
WE TOO ARE, AND WILL CONTINUE TO, MONITOR THIS AREA OF CONVECTION
FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS WEEK. IT'S TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT, IF
ANY, IMPACTS THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON THE GULF COAST OR
OUR FORECAST AREA. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO THE REGION SHOULD
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE MOST UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, MODELS DO INDICATE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
LIFTING INTO THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND, AGAIN BRINGING GOOD
CHANCES FOR RAIN TO THE CWA. /19/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
ISOLATED SHRA WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS INCLUDING MEI/HBG/PIB
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING BY MID-MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WIND. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 65 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 64 86 61 87 / 10 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 63 88 62 90 / 10 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 66 86 64 88 / 10 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 65 88 64 89 / 10 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 60 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 60 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
19/DL
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