334
FXUS64 KJAN 230728
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
228 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA, EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL AREAS AS WELL BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
TODAY INTO MONDAY...
PERSISTENT HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. DANGEROUS
HEAT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GREATEST HEAT STRESS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE HEAT INDICES REACHING 110
DEGREES ARE EXPECTED. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE
AREAS CONCURRENT WITH AN "ELEVATED" (2/4) DELINEATION ON GRAPHICAL
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCTS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTHWARD, BRIEFLY "COOLING" TEMPS TO THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES NEAR 105 BECOMING MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE AREA BY MONDAY WHERE A "LIMITED" (1/4) AREA IS
DEPICTED FOR THAT HEAT RISK.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TODAY WITH STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DEPICTED BY
A "MARGINAL" (1/5) OUTLOOK NEAR THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. THESE
STORMS WILL PEAK IN INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
WHEN HEATING IS MAXIMIZED.
THE RISK AREA WILL EXPAND ON MONDAY TO INCLUDE AREAS AS FAR NORTH
AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS STORMS ONCE AGAIN PEAK IN INTENSITY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK DUE TO SEASONABLY WEAK UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND
EXTENSIVE SUMMER RIDGING. WITH SUMMERTIME THERMAL PROFILES
PREVAILING, THIS WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY HIGH FREEZING LEVEL
AND WARM/HOT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES. FOR THESE REASONS, THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS EACH DAY WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 60
MPH, PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH WET-MICROBURST PROCESSES.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE UPPER HIGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING HEATWAVE DOES BEGIN TO
RETROGRADE AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT AT THE SAME TIME UPPER
TROUGHING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BEGINS TO WEAKEN WHICH
RESULTS IN 500 MB HEIGHTS REMAINING ROUGHLY UNCHANGED IN THE
590-591 DAM RANGE. THIS DOES, HOWEVER, RESULT IN MID AND UPPER
VELOCITIES DROPPING A SMALL AMOUNT (E.G. 5-10 KTS @ 500 MB). WHILE
SMALL, THE ALREADY MEAGER SHEAR/DEEP FLOW MAY SOMEWHAT ALLEVIATE
THE RISK FOR THE NEAR DAILY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS THAT WE HAVE BEEN SEEING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE REBOUND IN THIS MORE STAGNANT PATTERN
AND CONTINUED ELEVATED UPPER HEIGHT ANOMALIES AS HEAT INDICES LIKELY
ONCE AGAIN THREATENING THE 110 DEGREE MARK IN SOME PLACES. HEAT
HEADLINES AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS THE WEEK
PROGRESS. /SW/86/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND NORTHERLY (SUSTAINED/GUSTS
UNDER 10MPH) INTO SUNDAY. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 98 73 92 73 / 10 0 30 30
MERIDIAN 97 73 92 72 / 20 10 40 20
VICKSBURG 96 74 92 73 / 20 0 30 20
HATTIESBURG 99 74 95 73 / 20 10 60 20
NATCHEZ 98 75 96 75 / 20 10 20 10
GREENVILLE 97 73 91 72 / 10 10 30 40
GREENWOOD 95 72 89 71 / 0 10 30 40
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>066-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ074-075.
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