041  
FXUS64 KJAN 010634  
AFDJAN  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS  
134 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 134 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
THROUGH TONIGHT: WE HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES  
BEFORE WE SEE A CHANGE IN PATTERN AHEAD OF THE HOLIDAY. A SURGE OF  
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POOLED OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A WEAK SUMMER  
TYPE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ALREADY ONGOING EARLY THIS  
MORNING IN CENTRAL MS, ALONG WITH A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ACROSS  
WEST TN INTO NORTH MS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH  
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT ITS ASSOCIATED OUTFLOWS MAY HELP  
TRIGGER AND FOCUS REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER OUR  
AREA LATER TODAY. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAIN TIMING FOR  
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD  
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THIS TIME FRAME, THERE WILL BE  
AMPLE TIME FOR HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. WHILE SHEAR WILL BE  
SUBPAR, IT WILL BE A BIT STRONGER THAN TYPICAL BACKGROUND FLOW OF  
AN AVERAGE SUMMERTIME DAY. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN POTENTIAL  
FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND  
GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT STORMS TODAY  
APPEAR LESS LIKELY TO STALL GIVEN INCREASED UPPER LEVEL FLOW, SO  
FLOODING APPEARS LESS LIKELY. AHEAD OF THE RAIN, IT WILL BE QUITE  
HOT AND HUMID AGAIN, WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  
 
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY: THE WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT  
INTO WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION FOR THE  
4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED  
OUT, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH MS AND CENTRAL LA, MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN  
DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A RESULT, THERE WILL BE AN  
UPTICK IN HIGH TEMPS, WITH UPPER 90S POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY.  
HOWEVER, AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP BACK IN OVER THE WEEKEND,  
HEAT STRESS WILL BE AN INCREASING CONCERN. AND CHANCES FOR DIURNAL  
CONVECTION WILL ALSO BEGIN TO RETURN. /DL/  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
BRIEF PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND  
DAYBREAK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVAIL AT ANY  
TAF SITE. SCATTERED SH AND TS ARE EXPECTED, WITH BRIEF  
CATEGORICAL REDUCTIONS AND GUSTY WIND POSSIBLE. THOUGH MOST  
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL BE FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY  
EVENING, ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE UNTIL THAT TIME. OTHERWISE,  
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF  
PERIOD. /DL/  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
JACKSON 91 72 91 70 / 70 20 10 0  
MERIDIAN 92 71 91 68 / 70 30 10 0  
VICKSBURG 92 73 92 71 / 60 20 10 0  
HATTIESBURG 93 73 94 72 / 80 20 30 0  
NATCHEZ 91 73 90 71 / 60 20 20 0  
GREENVILLE 91 72 91 70 / 30 10 10 0  
GREENWOOD 91 71 92 69 / 40 10 10 0  
 

 
   
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MS...NONE.  
LA...NONE.  
AR...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DL  
 
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