098
FXUS64 KJAN 070033
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
733 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) SEVERE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
TODAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK: SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE WESTERLIES HAS BEEN
DRAWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEAKNESS AND PINCHED
OFF OVER THE OZARK REGION WHERE IT IS SUPPORTING A LOWER-END
SEVERE WEATHER RISK THAT EXTENDS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. FOR TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY, THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
TO INITIATE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN A HOT, UNSTABLE, AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS.
THERE SHOULD BE ANOTHER MCV MOVING IN MONDAY WITH ANOTHER MARGINAL
DAMAGING WIND RISK EXPECTED FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN THE ARKLAMISS
REGION PER SPC. CONFIDENCE ISN'T THE GREATEST IN TERMS OF THE AREA
FOR THESE RISKS, SO KEEP UP WITH THE LATEST OUTLOOKS. WOULD ALSO
KEEP AN EYE ON ANY HEAVY RAIN THREATS AS THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO ANCHOR A CONVECTIVE
BAND OR TWO THAT RESULTS IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS A
VERY LOW CONFIDENCE PHENOMENON SO NO FORMAL MESSAGING IS BEING
SENT OUT ABOUT IT. OTHERWISE, IN TERMS OF HEAT DANGER THREATS, WE
SHOULD STAY BELOW LIMITED THRESHOLDS FOR THE MOST PART.
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND: THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STILL
FORECAST BY GUIDANCE TO REBUILD, AND THIS SHOULD LESSEN CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING HEAT STRESS TO INTENSIFY.
ADDITIONAL HEAT RELATED GRAPHICS FOR LIMITED/ELEVATED HEAT THREATS
MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY
LOWER-END SEVERE THREATS ON A DAILY BASIS. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS EVENING AND EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD./15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 91 73 90 73 / 20 20 30 20
MERIDIAN 92 73 91 73 / 30 10 30 10
VICKSBURG 91 73 90 73 / 30 20 30 30
HATTIESBURG 92 74 92 74 / 20 20 40 20
NATCHEZ 92 73 90 73 / 40 30 50 20
GREENVILLE 92 72 90 73 / 20 30 40 40
GREENWOOD 92 72 91 72 / 20 20 50 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
/15
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