847
FXUS64 KJAN 091955
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
255 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE CLOSED UPPER LOW, CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX
REGION AS OF MID AFTERNOON, WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER DRIVER AS
WE GO THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. MOIST ASCENT WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH OF THE LOW CENTER, WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY EARLY
EVENING, THEN TRACK TO EAST CENTRAL MS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AN AREA
OF NUMEROUS, SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL DEVELOP OVER ROUGHLY THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA AND
RESULT IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY REACH IN EXCESS OF AN INCH RAINFALL, BUT
RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
/EC/
EARLY TO LATE WEEK & NEXT WEEKEND: IN THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LOW,
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK WILL CONSIST OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING, DRYNESS & GRADUAL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH MIDWEEK ON
WEDNESDAY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF BEFORE RETURN FLOW COMMENCES, HELPING STRONG WARM ADVECTION &
MODERATION OF HIGHS, SOME 5-12F ABOVE (72-79F BOTH TUESDAY &
WEDNESDAY). A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL TAKE PLACE INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE/DEEPENING COLD CORE MOVE THROUGH, USHERING IN SOME
RAIN & STORM CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME
INCREASED LAPSE RATES & DEEP LAYER SHEAR (I.E. AROUND 40-50KTS IN
THE 0-3KM & 0-6KM LAYERS) THAT COULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED
STRONGER STORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. LOW CONFIDENCE PERSIST SO
NO HWO GRAPHIC WAS INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME. GRADIENT SFC WINDS
COULD BECOME A CONCERN AS PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND 5MB DEVELOPS
AROUND WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY. RAIN & STORM CHANCES MOVE OUT BY
MID-MORNING THURSDAY, AS THIS WILL BE THE PRIMING WAVE IN ADVANCE
OF MORE POTENT LONGWAVE SYSTEM LATE WEEK.
BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE. LONGWAVE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST, INCREASED JET DYNAMICS (I.E.
110-130KT 500MB & 300MB UPPER JET, RESPECTIVELY) WITH JET SWINGING
ACROSS BAJA PENINSULA, TX PANHANDLE & CENTRAL PLAINS INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL FAVOR RAPID LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS (I.E. 970-975MB IN
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS), INCREASED MASS RESPONSE OF MID TO
UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS & DEEP LAYER SHEAR (45-65KT 0-3KM & 0-6KM).
THIS BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY & CLIMATOLOGICALLY SUPPORTIVE
SYNOPTIC & SFC PATTERN. SEVERE STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, AROUND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER A CONCERN. DUE TO THAT & SPC INTRODUCTION OF A
"SLIGHT" ADDED AN HWO GRAPHIC FOR THOSE CONCERNS. TIMING & AREAL
CONFIGURATIONS WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER. FOR FORECAST
ELEMENTS, EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
IN THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGHS & LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY, SOME 5-15F ABOVE ON HIGHS (75-83F) & 12-20F ABOVE ON
LOWS (57-63F), WHILE MORE SEASONABLE INTO SATURDAY. LASTLY,
GRADIENT WIND CONCERNS WILL BE LIKELY, WITH 6-8MB GRADIENT ACROSS
THE GULF COAST REGION. HWO GRAPHIC & POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER IN THE WEEK. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD, PARTICULARLY FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN SITES. SHOWER
COVERAGE WILL BEGIN TO SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z MONDAY.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES WILL PREVAIL WITH CEILINGS MVFR/IFR THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHERLY WITH GUSTS 15-20
KTS. HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF PRECIPITATION.
/86/OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 47 68 43 74 / 70 10 0 0
MERIDIAN 48 68 41 75 / 90 30 0 0
VICKSBURG 45 68 43 74 / 50 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 50 71 41 78 / 60 10 0 0
NATCHEZ 44 67 43 73 / 30 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 43 66 43 72 / 70 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 45 68 44 74 / 70 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/DC/86/OAJ/
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