523
FXUS64 KJAN 210549 AAC
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1149 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z SUN JAN SOUNDING
WAS VERY DRY ABOVE 850MB. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP OUR
AIRMASS AND LOCAL RADARS WERE JUST NOW SHOWING A FEW VERY LIGHT
RETURNS TO OUR NORTHWEST. HAVE DELAYED THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IN OUR
CWA SEVERAL HOURS BUT EXPECT RAIN CHANCES TO SLOWLY INCREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM THE WEST. MUCH OF OUR EAST MISSISSIPPI ZONES
STILL SHOWED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES LAST HOUR BUT CLOUD COVER WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AS WELL. THIS CLOUD INCREASE WILL HELP HOLD
TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA. /22/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
THANKS TO INCREASINGLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW, THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN
SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS BETWEEN LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
A GLANCING SHORTWAVE AND WEAK SURFACE FRONT PROVIDE MODEST FORCING.
THOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST OVER MULTIPLE DAYS, BOTH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL BE LIMITED, AND SOME AREAS MAY RECEIVE NO RAIN AT
ALL. RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER.
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL BE PUSHING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER AS WE MOVE INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAYS. A
WHITE CHRISTMAS IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT SANTA AND HIS REINDEER MAY
ENJOY A MORE TROPICAL EXPERIENCE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
MANY SITES WERE STILL OBSERVING VFR CONDITIONS AT 0500Z BUT MVFR
CIGS WL BEGIN DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING
INTO THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA WL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR BY 12Z. LIFR
VSBY MAY DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH 11-13Z. IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ONCE IT DEVELOPS UNTIL AFTER 18Z WHEN CONDITIONS WL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR. VFR CONDITIONS WL BE PSBL AT GLH-GWO BY
00Z MON BEFORE DROPPING BACK DOWN TO MVFR. ELSEWHERE MVFR CIGS WL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 58 67 55 69 / 10 50 10 50
MERIDIAN 52 65 50 66 / 10 50 20 20
VICKSBURG 60 66 55 72 / 30 40 10 70
HATTIESBURG 53 75 57 73 / 10 50 40 20
NATCHEZ 63 72 59 74 / 20 60 20 50
GREENVILLE 52 58 50 67 / 20 20 10 60
GREENWOOD 54 60 50 67 / 30 30 0 70
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
22
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