292
FXUS64 KJAN 110629
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
129 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- POTENTIAL MORE SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND, USHERING IN
COOLER AND SEASONABLE FALL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 129 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...
TODAY THROUGH LATE WEEK (THURSDAY): MORNING SURFACE AND GOES EAST
WATER VAPOR/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE POST TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL AL. COLD CORE ALOFT OVER THE SAME AREA IS KEEPING
MEAN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LOCKED IN THE THE WEST SIDE OF THE
DECAYING SYSTEM. ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS KEPT STRATUS ONGOING IN THE
GOLDEN TRIANGLE BUT THIS WILL MARKEDLY DECREASE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE UPPER LOW AND REMNANT SYSTEM LIFT NORTHEAST,
CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LESS SEASONABLE, SOME 3-8F ABOVE, BUT SLIGHTLY MORE
PLEASANT (55-62F). DRY AFTERNOON UNDER LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ON TAP TODAY. HIGHS WILL MODERATE
BACK UP SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 10-15F ABOVE (88-94F), WITH WARMEST
AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 (91-94F).
CONTINUED WARMTH INTO MID OCTOBER WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE WEEK.
MEAN RIDGE AROUND 594DM WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF AND
BUILD TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN 90-96F RANGE AND LOWS MID 50S
TO AROUND 60 DEGREES IN EAST MS TO LOW TO UPPER 60S IN CENTRAL TO
NORTHWEST DELTA) WILL BE THE NORM. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY TO SUPPORT SOME LIMITED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED EARLY THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, WINDS REMAIN LIGHT
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY MENTION IN HWO FOR MONDAY. LOW LEVEL RETURN
FLOW WILL BRING SOME HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEK BUT NOTHING ON THE
ORDER OF DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WE HAVE BEEN DEALING WITH FOR SOME
TIME.
LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND (FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY): A MORE FALL-LIKE
FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO FINALLY BE ON TAP INTO LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS EARLIER IN THE WEEK AND POTENTIALLY WILL INTERACT WITH A
DEEPENING TROUGH/UPPER JET DIVING INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTHEAST.
THERE IS DIFFERING SOLUTIONS OF SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION: ONE CAMP OF
THE EURO RETROGRADING THE UPPER LOW WHILE THE CORE OF THE TROUGH/JET
DIVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TO NORTHEAST WHILE THE GFS PHASE TO THE
TWO FEATURES AND A DEEP LONGWAVE SYNOPTIC TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST OF
THE MS RIVER CORRIDOR. BOTH BRING A STOUT, DRY COLD FRONT BUT THE
GFS CARVES OUT THE MOISTURE MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANTLY (I.E. DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO TEENS TO 20S VS MID 40S FOR THE EURO). AT THE VERY
LEAST, COOL DOWN LOOKS ON TAP INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM FRIDAY (86-92F), WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
THAT MORNING AND LOWS THAT NIGHT MID 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TO
NEAR 60 DEGREES TO THE SOUTH. SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT FALL
TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD AREAWIDE INTO NEXT WEEKEND (HIGHS OF
73-80F AND LOWS OF UPPER 40S NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 TO LOW 50S TO
THE SOUTH). /DC/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY UNDER 5-10KTS SUSTAINED AND GUSTS UNDER
15KTS./KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 91 61 93 60 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 88 58 91 57 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 92 61 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 91 59 93 58 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 90 61 92 63 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 92 63 93 65 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 92 61 93 62 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/KP
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