454
FXUS64 KJAN 231703
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1203 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK DUE TO VERY DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND LOW HUMIDITY EACH
DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
ANOTHER RINSE-REPEAT FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING PERIOD, AS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN HAS OCCURRED
NOR IS FORECAST TO OCCUR: THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE VERY
STRAIGHT- FORWARD THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK, AND CONFIDENCE IS
THEREFORE HIGH IN THE FORECAST DETAILS. GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES
AGREE THAT AN ANOMALOUSLY WARM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AS WE FINISH
UP THE WEEK AND GO INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER WITH LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES
APPROACHING 40 DEG F.
OF GREATEST IMPORTANCE, THE CONTINUED DRYING OF VEGETATION
COMBINED WITH EXCEPTIONALLY LOW DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL HELP TO
MAINTAIN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MESSAGE THIS THROUGH THE GRAPHICS AND FIRE DANGER STATEMENT. WIND
SHOULD HAVE LESS INFLUENCE AND BE A SMALLER FACTOR IN DETERMINING
THE FIRE DANGER THREAT LEVELS.
OTHERWISE, RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK AT
THE EARLIEST, WHEN THE RIDGE SHOWS SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN, AND
WHEN THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM INFLUENCE INCREASES OVER OUR REGION.
EVEN THEN, GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW THE GREATER RAINFALL SIGNAL
CENTERED MORE TO OUR WEST, SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT GREAT FOR THIS DRY
SPELL TO END ANYTIME SOON. /EC/OAJ/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH ALL SITES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MOSTLY VARIABLE
WITH A SOMEWHAT NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR
TO MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE PERIOD./OAJ/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 52 82 49 79 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 46 77 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 50 83 48 81 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 46 81 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 53 83 51 81 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 51 83 51 79 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 50 82 47 79 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/OAJ/OAJ
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