121
FXUS64 KJAN 080259
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
959 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS WILL INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
REACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND WINDY CONDITIONS RELATED TO "ISAIAS" MAY
IMPACT EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE, FIRE WEATHER DANGER COULD
INCREASE THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
MESOSCALE UPDATE
ISSUED AT 911 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
TROPICAL UPDATE: THE TRACK FOR ISAIAS HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD INTO ALABAMA, WHICH LEAVES LIMITED IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
- MAINLY EAST OF I-55
- WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 30-45 MPH.
- RAINFALL 3-5 INCHES. LOW CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING.
IN THE MEANTIME, OUR WEATHER WILL BE QUIET. CLEAR SKIES PERSIST
THROUGH TOMORROW, WITH CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAIAS BEGINNING TO
MAKE THEIR WAY OVERHEAD IN THE I-59 CORRIDOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE (+10) WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. /SAS/
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO BE FOCUSED ON TC ISAIAS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND/RAINFALL IMPACTS IN OUR OUR FORECAST AREA FROM LATE
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY. IN THE PAST 24 HRS, THERE WAS A MARKED
EASTWARD/FASTER TREND IN THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CORRELATING WITH
THE IMPROVED MODEL INITIALIZATION AND DATA ASSIMILATION.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK (BOTH SPEED AND PLACEMENT) IS LESS, AND
THERE IS MUCH GREATER PROBABILITY THAT THE CENTER WILL TRACK EAST
OF MS AT AN EARLIER TIME. OUR MESSAGING REFLECTS THIS TREND WITH
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AND
STRONGEST WINDS.
THERE IS STILL A REASONABLE CHANCE THAT EXTRATROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CYCLONE WILL INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM
APPROACHES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR A HEAVIER
RAINFALL BAND WITH WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST/WEST OF
THE SURFACE LOW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH/LOW, WHICH
WOULD IMPACT AREAS ALONG/E OF I-55 BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK
FROM NHC. RECENT MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL HELP TO LIMIT FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS EVEN WITH HEAVIER OVERALL TOTALS, AND TORNADO
THREATS WILL STAY TO OUR EAST. WHAT CONTINUES TO REQUIRE THE
GREATEST DISCERNMENT IS FIGURING OUT GRADIENT WIND IMPACTS AS WIND
ENVELOPES WITH THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEMS TEND TO EXPAND EVEN
WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND MAXIMA DIMINISH.
ULTIMATELY, A 12 TO 18 HR PERIOD OF WINDY/RAINY CONDITIONS SEEMS
LIKE A PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AT SOME POINT IN
THE FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY TIME FRAME. IN TERMS OF FORMAL
MESSAGING, WE CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LIMITED FLASH FLOOD THREAT
OVER EAST/NE MS, BUT HAVE HELD OFF JUST A BIT LONGER BEFORE
LOCKING IN LOW-END WIND THREATS DUE TO THE CHANGING FORECAST. IT
APPEARS WE MAY BE HONING IN ON THE IDEA OF 30 TO 40 MPH GUST
POTENTIAL MAINLY EAST OF I-55 DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY EVENING AND
CONTINUING AT LEAST UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH
WIDESPREAD RAIN WOULD CERTAINLY NOT BE IDEAL FOR FOR OUTDOOR
EVENTS, BUT THE DEGREE OF DISRUPTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
OTHERWISE, IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE SUBSIDENT/WELL-MIXED/DRY
AND HOT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER DANGER DUE TO INCREASED MIXING AND
HOT/DRY/BREEZY CONDITIONS TOMORROW AND PERHAPS FRIDAY AS WELL.
LOOKING AHEAD TO BEYOND THE SYSTEM, WE'LL SEE DRIER AND HOTTER
CONDITIONS RETURN BENEATH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SUBTROPICAL HIGH
CENTERED OVER OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. /EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE THROUGH
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD IN AT HBG AND PIB TOMORROW AFTERNOON. MIXING DURING THE
AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO WIND GUSTS AT HBG AND PIB UP TO 18KTS.
/SAS/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 62 92 62 88 / 0 0 0 10
MERIDIAN 58 90 61 86 / 0 0 0 10
VICKSBURG 62 93 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 61 91 63 86 / 0 0 0 30
NATCHEZ 63 92 63 89 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 63 93 64 91 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 61 94 63 92 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
EC/EC/SAS20
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