971
FXUS64 KJAN 142342 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
642 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 231 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
UPDATE: DANGEROUS HEAT WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD CONCERN
AS WE GO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ENOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO GO AHEAD WITH
ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY, AND WE HAVE ONCE AGAIN EXPANDED
IT SOME AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WE'RE SEEING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS FOCUS OVER NORTHEAST LA INTO
SOUTHWEST MS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF "SUN TIME" LEFT AND EXPECT ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE RAINFALL TO FOCUS MAINLY ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS WE
GO INTO THE EARLY EVENING. CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH AND
BECOME MINIMAL OVERNIGHT. /EC/
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO
CHANGES NECESSARY. HEAT CONTINUES TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD DUE TO
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY PROPAGATE WESTWARD ALONG
THE SOUTHERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL
MOISTURE ON ITS WESTERN FLANK WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES FOR AT
LEAST ONE MORE DAY, BUT WILL DECREASE THIS WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE
BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE REGION. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
PROPAGATES AND BUILDS WESTWARD OVER OUR AREA, HEAT INDICES WILL
STEADILY INCREASE, AS MID TO UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS ARE LARGELY
MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL MAINTAIN THE HWO GRAPHIC
DEPICTING THIS THIS WEEKEND AND HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
EXTENDED DAY BY DAY.
THERE HAS BEEN GUIDANCE SHOWING DRIER AIR WRAPPING AROUND "ERIN"
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DIGGING UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST, BUT THIS NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE A
LOCK. IF THIS CAN HAPPEN, THEN THERE MAY BE A PUSH OF DRIER AIR
THAT WOULD ALLOW FOR DEEPER MIXING IN THE AFTERNOONS, THUS
DEWPOINTS DROPPING TO THE LOW 70S WITH POCKETS OF UPPER 60S. THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME CONSIDERING MOIST FUELS AND
ANTICIPATED ANTECEDENT RAINFALL, BUT THIS COULD OPEN A WINDOW FOR
A LOW END FIRE RISK NEXT WEEK, PARTICULARLY WITH THE COMBINATION
OF DRIER AIR AND HOTTER TEMPERATURES. /SAS/EC/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
SCATTERED SHRA AND TS PERSIST EARLY THIS EVENING BUT WILL MOSTLY
DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH LESS THAN IT WAS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. /DL/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 74 94 75 96 / 30 50 10 40
MERIDIAN 72 93 73 94 / 40 60 10 30
VICKSBURG 75 94 75 96 / 40 40 10 40
HATTIESBURG 76 96 76 96 / 20 40 10 50
NATCHEZ 74 95 75 96 / 30 40 10 40
GREENVILLE 73 95 74 96 / 30 40 10 20
GREENWOOD 73 95 74 96 / 30 40 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
EC/SAS/DL
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