678
FXUS64 KJAN 271748 AAA
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1248 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH RAIN AND STORMS MOSTLY
CONFINED TO PINE BELT AND INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDOR.
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS MAY RETURN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MORE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
TODAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK (WEDNESDAY)...
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND: SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EARLY THIS MORNING IS
DRIVING A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 20. THIS COMBINED WITH STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE, IS
DRIVING MOIST CONVERGENCE AND SOUTHWARD SINKING COMPLEX OF STORMS.
THIS STILL HAS SOME LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BULK SHEAR (UNDER
20KTS) THAT COULD DRIVE SOME ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT, BUT
INSTABILITY IS WANING AND MOSTLY ELEVATED. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE AND ANY AREAS THAT
CAN BECOME ROOTED MORE IN LINE WITH ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISION. RAINFALL RATES ARE HEAVY AT TIMES AND BACKBUILDING
REMAINS POSSIBLE. RAIN AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT WILL BECOME LESS FOCUSED AS THIS
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY WIPE OUT MUCH IN THE WAY OF REDEVELOPMENT
LATER. LASTLY, HEAT WILL NOT BE AS MUCH OF A CONCERN, BUT AREAS IN
THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR COULD BE SEASONABLY WARM IN THE LOW 90S,
WITH SOME HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING 100F. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN
DANGEROUS HEAT REMAINS ON THE LOW SIDE, SO HOLDING OFF ON ANYTHING
IN THE HWO.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AND FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS OUT OF
THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND, A CUTOFF UPPER LOW WILL FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TO ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE
WEEKEND. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE PINE BELT INTO LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND, WITH THE INTERSTATE
59 CORRIDOR THE HIGHEST COVERAGE (25 TO 35 PERCENT FRIDAY TO
SATURDAY AND 30 TO 50 PERCENT ON SUNDAY). MEAN RIDGE (595DM) WILL
BUILD OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AREA IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH
RIDGING ENCROACHING IN OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL HELP HIGH
TEMPS MODERATE BACK IN THE LOW TO MID 90S (92F TO 97F, WITH
WARMEST CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHWEST DELTA REGION). HEAT STRESS
WILL REMAIN A LOW CHANCE INTO THE LATE WEEKEND, WITH SUNDAY HAVING
SOME LOW PROBABILITIES.
NEXT WEEK: SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF MEAN RIDGE BUILDING
OUT OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY, WITH AN
UPPER LOW SLIDING UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.
THIS WILL DRIVE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE, MOIST CONVERGENCE AND RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK (HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE 25 TO 45 PERCENT RANGE).
HEAT RETURNS AS HIGHS MODERATE MORE INTO THE MID 90S. WITH
INCREASINGLY MOIST THERMAL PROFILES AND HIGHER PBL MOISTURE,
MIXING WILL BE LESS A CONCERN (DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE 72F TO 78F
RANGE). THIS WILL LEAD TO POTENTIAL DANGEROUS HEAT FROM EARLY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK AS HEAT INDICES PEAK NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF
105F. HWO GRAPHICS MAY BE NEEDED (POTENTIAL THE LOWEST A "LIMITED"
RISK AREA) BUT TIMING IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY AND COULD WAIT
ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE OR TWO BEFORE INTRODUCTION. /DC/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
MVFR CIGS WL CONTINUE OVER THE CNTRL TAF SITES UNTIL IMPROVING BY
20Z. VFR CONDITIONS WL THEN PREVAIL AREAWIDE UNTIL AFTER 08Z WHEN
MVFR VSBYS AND CIGS BEGIN DEVELOPING. IFR/LIFR CIGS WL BE PSBL
ACROSS THE SOUTH 10-13Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE
BY 15Z. /22/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 90 70 93 68 / 60 20 10 10
MERIDIAN 90 71 93 70 / 80 30 30 10
VICKSBURG 90 70 93 68 / 50 20 10 0
HATTIESBURG 88 71 92 70 / 90 20 30 10
NATCHEZ 89 71 94 69 / 90 20 20 0
GREENVILLE 94 71 94 68 / 20 10 10 0
GREENWOOD 93 70 94 67 / 40 10 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/22
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