329
FXUS64 KJAN 250737
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
237 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO
CLEAR SIGNAL FOR RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK...
TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING MAY SEE SOME SPOTS WITH LOW STRATUS AND
FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT FEWER SPOTS THAN LAST NIGHT.
OVERALL, THE TRANSITION AWAY FROM SUMMER IS APPEARING IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING GENERALLY AROUND THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PARTS OF THE COUNTRY
WILL STILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL IN THE BROADER
REGION, BUT SPLIT FLOW IS NOTED IN THE GUIDANCE INTO NEXT WEEK.
SOUTHERN JET STREAM AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL CARRY
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AND ADD MORE FLOW AND SHEAR TO THE ATMOSPHERE.
SHORTWAVES MAY BRING SHOWERS OR STORMS AROUND SUNDAY/MONDAY, BUT
THE MODELS DISAGREE WHETHER RIDGING OR TROUGHING WILL BE MORE
ESTABLISHED TO ALLOW MUCH. EITHER WAY, THE CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRIER WITHOUT CONCERN FOR HUMIDITY CAUSING DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS.
BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, THE ENSEMBLE OF
GUIDANCE SHOWS A BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE AND A MORE FULL-LATITUDE
TROUGH SWINGING FROM THE WESTERN CONUS TOWARD THE CENTRAL CONUS.
BEING A BIT EARLY IN THE TRANSITIONAL TIME OF YEAR, CONFIDENCE ON
THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURES IS VERY LOW. OFFICIAL GUIDANCE LEANS
INTO A FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE LOW WITH A COLD FRONT AND
STORMS IN OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND OTHER GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A SLOWER LOW CUTTING OFF AROUND THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
AND REGION (RAIN TO THE NORTHWEST STILL) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM, AS IT MARKS
A CHANGE FROM THE STAGNANT SUMMER PATTERN AND A POTENTIALLY MORE
POTENT COOL-SEASON PATTERN. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE RELATED TO EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE
ACTIVITY.
THAT BEING SAID, OUR BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT RAIN AND STORMS
COMING THROUGH IS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
SYSTEM. LIGHT SHOWERS AND FOG/MIST PERSISTING OVERNIGHT FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND; AND CONTINUED DIURNALLY DRIVEN
STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL DOES NOT CURRENTLY
LOOK TO BE CONSIDERABLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO ANY FLASH FLOODING
RISKS ARE CLOSE TO NIL. /OAJ/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH
THE PERIOD, HOWEVER SOME BRIEF AND PATCHY BR COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
12Z. WILL MONITOR FOR ANY NEEDED AMENDMENTS, BUT CONFIDENCE OF
MVFR OR LOWER IMPACTS WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 88 63 88 63 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 85 62 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 88 64 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 87 63 89 64 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 90 65 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 90 64 90 64 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 88 61 89 61 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
OAJ/OAJ/NF
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