477
FXUS64 KJAN 040025
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
725 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES BEGIN INCREASING AREAWIDE TODAY, WITH CHANCES
CONTINUING EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AS NEAR-TERM
GUIDANCE SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THIS, COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX READING
VALUES UP TO 110 DEGREES ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS
MOMENT, NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE HEAT GRAPHIC FOR TODAY AND
A "ELEVATED" RISK FOR DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVERTISED
ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA. LIKEWISE, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM LATER THIS EVENING.
CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN RAIN
COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH THANKS TO
AN EASTERLY WAVE BRINGING IN A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND ERODING
THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE. A FEW STRONG SCATTERED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. RAIN CHANCES WILL START TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING WITH A
FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 70S
AREAWIDE.
THE FORECAST MESSAGING FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE SAME
WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGIONAL WEATHER, THOUGH WILL SHIFT FROM THE MID-SOUTH
TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND THEN BACK AGAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LIMITED TO ELEVATED HEAT STRESS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THE
LONG TERM AS HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO PEAK IN THE 105-110
DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD HELP KEEP
PARTS OF OUR CWA UNDER HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WITH THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES. REGARDLESS,
AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY. AS WE GO
BEYOND FRIDAY, ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HEAT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED
AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD
INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES/ADVISORIES WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS WE GET CLOSER. HEAT TRENDS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA BY THE MID WEEK AS GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 HEADING
INTO THURSDAY. /CR/
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
SCATTERED CONVECTION OF THIS AFTERNOON HAVE ALL BUT WRAPPED UP AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TAF SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO
CALM. /KP/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 73 95 73 94 / 10 30 20 50
MERIDIAN 74 97 73 95 / 0 20 10 50
VICKSBURG 73 94 72 93 / 10 20 30 30
HATTIESBURG 74 94 73 93 / 20 60 20 80
NATCHEZ 73 94 72 92 / 20 50 30 60
GREENVILLE 75 97 75 98 / 20 30 10 20
GREENWOOD 73 97 73 97 / 10 10 10 20
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>066-072>074.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
CR/KP
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