061
FXUS64 KJAN 270644
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
144 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY,
WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHEN HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND
DOWNSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/TROUGHING OVER THE EAST COAST HAS OUR
FORECAST AREA BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
AREA DRY HEADED INTO MIDWEEK AND ALLOW FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO NUDGE
OVER THE 90 DEGREE MARK. MID- TO LATE-WEEK THOUGH, THE PATTERN
WILL BREAK DOWN. THE TRAILING END OF THE TROUGH MAY CUT OFF ALONG
THE GULF COAST OR NEAR THE SOUTHEAST US, WHILE THE RIDGE IS
SQUEEZED EASTWARD. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WOBBLING THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST US AND REMNANTS OF CURRENT EAST PACIFIC HURRICANE POLO
WILL BE WRAPPING PLENTY OF MOISTURE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEFORE NUDGING EASTWARD.
GUIDANCE TRENDS REMAIN ON THE SLOWER RANGE WITH ANY EASTWARD
MOVEMENT, BUT SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN OUR REGION AS THE PATTERN
EVOLVES MOSTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ONWARD. SOME GUIDANCE STRUGGLES
TO BRING THE SYSTEM OR ITS COLD FRONT INTO OUR FORECAST AT ALL,
BUT IN THE SAME TIME AN EASTERLY WAVE ARRIVING FROM THE TROPICS
WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS NUDGING CONFIDENCE HIGHER FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES AROUND NEXT WEEKEND. GENERALLY EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO
BE POSSIBLE WITH PWAT VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES - EVEN MORE
NOTABLE FOR EARLY OCTOBER. IT'S TOO EARLY TO EVEN HAVE CONFIDENCE
IN "AVERAGE" RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE AREA, BUT UPPER-END
ESTIMATES INDICATE A 90 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MULTI-DAY RAINFALL TO
BE LESS THAN 4 INCHES FOR ANY LOCATION IN OUR AREA. TO PUT IT IN
OTHER TERMS, IT MIGHT BE EXPECTED THAT 10 PERCENT OF THE REGION
COULD RECEIVE THOSE KINDS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AND 90 PERCENT
MIGHT SEE LESS BASED ON CURRENT AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE MESSAGING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
AND EVOLVES. /NF/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. INTERMITTENT, MOSTLY SHALLOW FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES
THROUGH 14Z TO MVFR/IFR RANGES AT PIB/HBG THROUGH 14Z. /86/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 90 63 90 63 / 0 0 0 0
MERIDIAN 88 60 88 60 / 0 0 0 0
VICKSBURG 91 64 91 63 / 0 0 0 0
HATTIESBURG 92 64 92 64 / 0 0 0 0
NATCHEZ 93 66 94 66 / 0 0 0 0
GREENVILLE 91 63 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 90 61 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
NF/LP
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