463
FXUS64 KJAN 041908
AFDJAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
208 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- LESS HEAT WILL BE THE NORM BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- MONITORING AN AREA WITH A MEDIUM CHANCE (40 PERCENT) OF
DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
REST OF TODAY INTO MONDAY:
MORNING SYNOPTIC/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES RIDGE CENTERED JUST OVER
THE FL PENINSULA, WHILE ANOTHER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS. THE GULF COAST REGION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE FORMER MENTIONED RIDGE. HIGH MOISTURE LADEN ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES (AROUND 2.2-2.5 INCHES) AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. THIS IS KEEPING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION INITIATION (CI) LESS ROBUST.
EXPECT LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (20
TO 60 PERCENT) WHILE HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE (GREATER THAN 60 TO 90 PERCENT
COVERAGE). WHILE SOME STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE AREA,
WEAK SKINNY THERMO PROFILES AND MEAGER LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AGAIN TODAY. HREF PMMS INDICATE SOME LOW
CHANCE PROBS (AROUND 10 TO 30 PERCENT) OF EXCEEDING 3 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS, MAINLY IN EAST-SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN THE
HIGHWAY 45 TO INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDORS. HOWEVER, WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE OF HIGH CONVECTIVE RATES, ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH AND
EAST WHERE HEATING WILL BE LESS, HOLDING OFF ANY ADVERTISEMENT IN
THE IN LOCAL HWO GRAPHICS. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN WHERE
BACKBUILDING CAN OCCUR (LIGHT BACKBUILDING FLOW IN THE HIGHWAY 84
AND 98 CORRIDORS INTO THE INTERSTATE 59 CORRIDORS). TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY, SOME 3-5F ABOVE IN THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR (82-85F) WHILE NEAR NORMAL TO THE SOUTH (79-81F).
RAIN CHANCES DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING, IN THE LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE AND SCATTERED COVERAGE (25 TO 55 PERCENT), WITH AREAS OF
THE HIGHEST CHANCES SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE LIKELY IN THE
PINE BELT THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOWS WILL SEASONABLY WARM, SOME
6-12F ABOVE (62-68F). DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO HUDSON
BAY AND SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL DRIVE A DRYING FRONT DOWN
INTO THE AREA INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE DECREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (15 TO
30 PERCENT) OF RAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM, SOME 4-8F ABOVE (82-88F), WITH AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THE NATCHEZ TRACE WARMER AS AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST
WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY.
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLIES OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR FRONT INTO
THE AREA. THIS NOW LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN PUSH OF REINFORCING DRY
AIR INTO THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY BUT GRADUALLY
MODERATING PATTERN ONGOING INTO LATE WEEK. MAIN ATTENTION WILL
TURN TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHWEST GULF, WHERE NUMEROUS AI
MODEL SUITE CONSENSUS AND NOW OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATE SOME
ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AND POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATE
THROUGH THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
HAS ADDED A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION NEXT
WEEK. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK IS GENERALLY MEANDER IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE BEFORE POTENTIAL NORTHWEST TO NORTH PROPAGATION. THERE MAY
BE SOME INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LOW DIVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND STOUT UPPER JET DIVING INTO THE RIO GRANDE AND INTERNATIONAL
BORDER INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS COULD KEEP THE SYSTEM MORE
SHEARED AND ASYMMETRIC, WHICH WOULD FOCUS IMPACTS ALONG AND EAST OF
ANY POTENTIAL TRACK. AT THE VERY LEAST, THERE IS ENOUGH TO
NECESSITATE MONITORING FOR SOME POTENTIAL SLUG OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
INTO LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL TURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND. /DC/SAS/
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
STRATUS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT, WITH A RETURN TO MVFR/IFR POSSIBLY
LIFR AT MOST SITES AFTER 08-09Z./15/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
JACKSON 67 86 63 87 / 40 10 10 0
MERIDIAN 66 84 62 86 / 60 20 10 10
VICKSBURG 65 86 60 88 / 20 10 0 0
HATTIESBURG 68 84 65 86 / 60 30 10 10
NATCHEZ 66 85 63 87 / 40 10 10 0
GREENVILLE 63 85 57 86 / 10 0 0 0
GREENWOOD 63 87 57 88 / 10 0 0 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
DC/SAS20/15
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page