424  
FXUS64 KMEG 032338  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
538 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2022  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED WITH A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY  
OUT OF THE MID-SOUTH. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND  
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS DRIER WEATHER WILL  
LAST INTO TOMORROW BEFORE THE NEXT RAIN EVENT MOVES THROUGH.  
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS  
TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 40S AS CLOUDS POUR IN FROM THE WEST.  
 
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SPREAD  
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS PATTERN WON'T  
LAST LONG AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO INCH NORTHWARD BY MONDAY. AS  
THE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA LIFTING WILL BECOME MORE  
ENHANCED AND PATCHY RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THE  
FRONT WILL STALL WHICH MAY CAUSE TRAINING AND CONTINUOUS RAINFALL.  
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW BUT WE COULD SEE UP  
TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST ON  
MONDAY.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH FOR THE REST OF THE  
WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER  
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE  
NEXT 7 DAYS LOOK LIKE 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL  
SOUTH OF I-40. WE COULD SEE MORE RAINFALL IF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS  
AT ALL. THIS PROLONGED RAINFALL WILL CAUSE A HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE  
TO SMALL RIVER BASINS.  
 
EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN  
THE LOW 70S TO MID 60S THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN  
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2022  
 
CURRENTLY, MVFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING TUP AND ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR  
OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST  
THROUGH THE TAF SET FOR ALL SITES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE  
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS  
TO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AROUND 14Z. LOWERING CIGS  
ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED BUT FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE THEY LOOK TO REMAIN  
ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS. WIND IS NORTHERLY 4-13KTS DEPENDING ON THE  
SITE AND SHOULD RELAX BELOW 6KTS OVERNIGHT. WIND WILL PICK UP  
AGAIN TOMORROW AND WILL BEGIN VEER EASTERLY BY THE END OF THE TAF  
SET.  
 
SMW  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS  
AVIATION...SMW  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TN Page
The Nexlab MS Page
The Nexlab AR Page Main Text Page