410
FXUS64 KMEG 020404
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1104 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE 80S.
- TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO 90S BY
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING
HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105 BY NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
IF YOU WERE OUTSIDE FOR ANY NOTICEABLE PERIOD THIS EVENING, THEN
YOU KNOW THAT THE MUCH AWAITED COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE REGION.
CONDITIONS FEEL MUCH LESS HUMID OUTSIDE, WITH TEMPERATURES
SPANNING THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER
INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHICH IS WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
BEGINNING OF AUGUST. FROM AN UPPER-LEVEL PERSPECTIVE, THE PARENT
TROUGH THAT DROVE SATURDAY'S COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN
OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
SCATTERED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MS RIVER. COVERAGE
OF ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE TN RIVER. WE WILL
BEGIN TO SEE A SLOW RETURN IN THE WARMER AND MORE HUMID
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS SPANNING THE 80S
MONDAY AND RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, SOMEWHAT ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN
TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WITH A DEEPENING TROUGH AXIS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH A DEVELOPING SURFACE HIGH TO THE
EAST, SURFACE WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME
AND ALLOW AN EVEN WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS TO RETURN. THIS
WILL SPELL THE RETURN OF A SOMEWHAT TYPICAL, SUMMERTIME PATTERN
FOR THE REGION, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 105 DEGREES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELTA, SO SOME HEAT HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES GO, GIVEN
THE FLOW REGIME, LATEST THOUGHTS ARE THAT POPS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
ISOLATED THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT JBR/MEM/TUP WITH IFR
CONDITIONS AT MKL AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATES TO OUR
NORTHEAST. FOG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY IS ALSO EXPECTED FOR A FEW
HOURS OVERNIGHT AT MKL. LOWERED CIGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR
HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
TUP. A FEW ROUNDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI IN THE AFTERNOON, WARRANTING A VCSH AT MKL/TUP AND A
PROB30 AT MEM. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE 10 KTS OR LESS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
NO MAJOR FIRE DANGER CONCERNS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. MINRH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 40%, WITH 20FT WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING
AT TO BELOW 10 MPH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...AEH
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