424
FXUS64 KMEG 032338
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
538 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2022
..NEW AVIATION
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2022
SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY DISSIPATED WITH A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY
OUT OF THE MID-SOUTH. CURRENTLY, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS DRIER WEATHER WILL
LAST INTO TOMORROW BEFORE THE NEXT RAIN EVENT MOVES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGHS
TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE 40S AS CLOUDS POUR IN FROM THE WEST.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SPREAD
EASTWARD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS PATTERN WON'T
LAST LONG AS A WARM FRONT STARTS TO INCH NORTHWARD BY MONDAY. AS
THE FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA LIFTING WILL BECOME MORE
ENHANCED AND PATCHY RAINFALL WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. THE
FRONT WILL STALL WHICH MAY CAUSE TRAINING AND CONTINUOUS RAINFALL.
THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW BUT WE COULD SEE UP
TO 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS JUST ON
MONDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOESN'T CHANGE MUCH FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS LOOK LIKE 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
SOUTH OF I-40. WE COULD SEE MORE RAINFALL IF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS
AT ALL. THIS PROLONGED RAINFALL WILL CAUSE A HYDROLOGIC RESPONSE
TO SMALL RIVER BASINS.
EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOW 70S TO MID 60S THROUGH FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2022
CURRENTLY, MVFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING TUP AND ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VFR CONDS SHOULD THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF SET FOR ALL SITES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING. THIS SHOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS
TO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST STARTING AROUND 14Z. LOWERING CIGS
ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED BUT FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE THEY LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE MVFR THRESHOLDS. WIND IS NORTHERLY 4-13KTS DEPENDING ON THE
SITE AND SHOULD RELAX BELOW 6KTS OVERNIGHT. WIND WILL PICK UP
AGAIN TOMORROW AND WILL BEGIN VEER EASTERLY BY THE END OF THE TAF
SET.
SMW
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...ARS
AVIATION...SMW
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