215  
FXUS64 KMEG 242328  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
628 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2018  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 304 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2018/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
CURRENTLY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION  
WITH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH FIRMLY IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM  
SECTOR. THE AREAL COVERAGE HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS  
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAPPING A VERY MOIST  
AIRMASS WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AND PRODUCING SOME VERY HEAVY  
DOWNPOURS. HEAVIER STORMS ARE PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR OF  
RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY AS THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE SCATTERED  
AREAS HAVE SOME TIME TO RECOVER BETWEEN ROUNDS. NEVERTHELESS SOME  
FLOODING OF MAINLY LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL CONTINUE  
TO BE A THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE WHERE UP TO 6  
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN ISOLATED SPOTS OVER THE LAST FEW  
DAYS.  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN THE MOIST  
AND AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR SO THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT  
THOUGH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT COULD KICK  
STORMS OFF AT ANY TIME. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE  
HEATING OF THE DAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY  
HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWS  
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.  
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO  
THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN  
PLACE RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW IT  
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES...  
WILL SOUTH OF I-40 AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN  
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOON WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI  
HAS AVERAGED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES SO FAR IN THIS EVENT SO THE  
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER  
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY  
IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHER SECTIONS.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SE OF THE  
REGION WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST  
MISSISSIPPI. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS  
IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S NORTH OF I-40.  
SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY. LOWS WILL DIP WELL INTO THE 50S THURSDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT  
BACK NORTH BRINGING MORE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE  
REGION ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
SJM  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAFS  
 
CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED AT TAF SITES AS STALLED OUT SURFACE  
BOUNDARY HAS MOVED NORTH. SHORT TERM TRENDS STILL SUGGEST THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VCTS THIS EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWED BY  
VCSH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AMPLE LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER  
CEILINGSAND SOME PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR  
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VCTS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON. S WINDS TONIGHT BETWEEN 5-10 KTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH  
THE PERIOD.  
 
CJC  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab TN Page
The Nexlab MS Page
The Nexlab AR Page Main Text Page