633
FXUS64 KMEG 171121
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-50S TO LOW-60S.
- A LOW RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE DROP WITH SUBFREEZING LOWS BY FRIDAY
MORNING.
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND AND ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME, IT APPEARS THAT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
A MILD WEATHER PATTERN APPEARS IN STORE THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 7 TO
10 DAYS, FOLLOWING OUR RECENT ARCTIC COLD SNAP LAST WEEKEND.
FRIDAY REMAINS THE EXCEPTION TO THE MILD PATTERN, BUT
TEMPERATURES
WILL QUICKLY RECOVER OVER THE WEEKEND AND WARM GRADUALLY FROM
THERE.
SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A DEEP NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. A POLAR COLD FRONT
WILL FOLLOW THIS FEATURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS, WHILE SOME PACIFIC AIR IS DIRECTED TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. FOR THE MIDSOUTH, THIS WILL RESULT IN A ONE DAY
COLD SNAP - ROUGHLY A 15 TO 20 DEGREE DROP WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S,
LOWS IN THE 20S.
WITH THE AID OF STEEP MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS, THE COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE QUICKLY THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON - JUST
INSIDE THE WINDOW OF THE 48 HOUR CAMS. THEIR SOLUTION IS SIMILAR
TO THE EARLIER LREF AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND AND GFS, SHOWING
PREFRONTAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 60 KNOTS AND MUCAPE BELOW
200 J/KG. THIS CONCURS WITH DEPICTED SOUNDINGS, WHICH SHOW A 100-
150MB DEEP MOIST THERMAL INVERSION ABOVE THE SURFACE, OVERTOPPED
BY NEARLY MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES. GIVEN THE STRONG
KINEMATICS, THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING. AT THIS TIME THE MODEST
CAPE IS CORRECTLY DEPICTED IN MODEL CONSENSUS, IT WOULD LIMIT OUR
SEVERE THREAT ON THURSDAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL BY
FRIDAY EVENING, WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW UNDERWAY
OVER MO AND MUCH OF AR. UNDER THIS ZONAL FLOW A LOW LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE - STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY - MAY BE DRAPED EAST
TO WEST ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY. A FEW WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS ARE INDICATED BY ECMWF AND GFS GUIDANCE NEAR THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY, LIKELY AIDED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET CORE ACROSS THE OH RIVER VALLEY.
OTHER THAN SUNDAY'S RAIN CHANCES, NEXT WEEK APPEARS PREDOMINATELY
DRY AT THIS TIME. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH 500MB HEIGHTS AROUND
582 DAM OVER THE MIDSOUTH ON CHRISTMAS DAY. A QUITE IMPRESSIVE
17 DAM OVER CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
PWB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CST WED DEC 17 2025
RETURN FLOW IS UNDERWAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SOUTH WINDS WILL
PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT, STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS NEAR MEM THIS MORNING SHOULD NOT BE IMPACTFUL TO
AVIATION. HOWEVER, HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED NEAR JBR BY 18TH/12Z
AND MEM BEFORE 18Z ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CIGS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR LEVELS TODAY ALTHOUGH THE TIMING REMAINS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY AS GULF AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH CHANCES OF WETTING
RAINFALL ON THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...JDS
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