215
FXUS64 KMEG 242328
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
628 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2018
UPDATE
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 304 PM CDT MON SEP 24 2018/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE REGION
WITH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH FIRMLY IN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR. THE AREAL COVERAGE HAS BECOME MORE SCATTERED THIS
AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAPPING A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS WITH PWS ABOVE 2 INCHES AND PRODUCING SOME VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. HEAVIER STORMS ARE PRODUCING UP TO AN INCH AN HOUR OF
RAINFALL. FORTUNATELY AS THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE SCATTERED
AREAS HAVE SOME TIME TO RECOVER BETWEEN ROUNDS. NEVERTHELESS SOME
FLOODING OF MAINLY LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE WHERE UP TO 6
INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN ISOLATED SPOTS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS.
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN THE MOIST
AND AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR SO THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. EXPECT COVERAGE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT
THOUGH WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH IN SW FLOW ALOFT COULD KICK
STORMS OFF AT ANY TIME. COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE DURING THE
HEATING OF THE DAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH STORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE AREA AND INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE RESULTING IN MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RIGHT NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL...BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES...
WILL SOUTH OF I-40 AND ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT AND NOON WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
HAS AVERAGED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES SO FAR IN THIS EVENT SO THE
THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHER SECTIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST SE OF THE
REGION WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO MOST OF THE AREA WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S ON THURSDAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S NORTH OF I-40.
SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY. LOWS WILL DIP WELL INTO THE 50S THURSDAY
NIGHT.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH BRINGING MORE WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SJM
AVIATION
00Z TAFS
CEILINGS HAVE IMPROVED AT TAF SITES AS STALLED OUT SURFACE
BOUNDARY HAS MOVED NORTH. SHORT TERM TRENDS STILL SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VCTS THIS EVENING FOR A FEW HOURS FOLLOWED BY
VCSH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CEILINGSAND SOME PATCHY FOG RESULTING IN MVFR TO PERHAPS IFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. VCTS ANTICIPATED TO RETURN FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. S WINDS TONIGHT BETWEEN 5-10 KTS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
CJC
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
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