414  
FXUS64 KMEG 010746  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
246 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
   
..NEW DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER
 
 
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
UPDATED AT 151 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
- THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO RUMBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY,  
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. AFTER TODAY,  
RAIN CHANCES LOOK LOW.  
 
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER EACH DAY THIS  
WEEK, CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S BY THE WEEKEND.  
 
- INDEPENDENCE DAY LOOKS TO BE CLEAR AND DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE  
LOW TO MIDDLE 90S.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT ARE  
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI.  
RADAR TRENDS HAVE SHOWN SLOW WEAKENING OF STORMS, ALTHOUGH OVER THE  
LAST HOUR OR SO, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS COOLING CLOUD TOPS.  
20-30 KT WIND GUSTS, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED  
THROUGH SUNRISE AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND NORTH  
ALABAMA.  
 
THE FRONT WILL BRING TEMPORARY RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT FOR  
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JULY. MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD ENJOY  
SUB-90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH  
MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER, BUT  
OVERALL WE SHOULD SEE A DRIER PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH  
BEGINNING TONIGHT. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT AS TO  
THE EXTENT OF REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE HIGHEST  
COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE OVER NORHEAST MISSISSIPPI.  
 
A TROUGH ORIENTED FROM OHIO INTO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI WILL SHIFT  
ALONG THE EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A RIDGE CURRENTLY  
OVER THE PLAINS BUILDS EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER TOMORROW THROUGH  
INDEPENDENCE DAY, LEVELING OFF IN THE MIDDLE 90S NEXT WEEKEND. AS  
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER, WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN  
DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, BUT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
LEADING EDGE OF BROKEN TSRA LINE WAS JUST NORTH OF MEM AT 0545Z.  
THE LEADING EDGE WILL PASS THROUGH BY 0630Z OR SO, WITH SOME  
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE BEHIND THE LINE THROUGH 0730Z.  
 
THE BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO NORTH MS OVERNIGHT, WITH SUFFICIENT  
SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED TSRA AT TUP. FOR TUESDAY, TUP WILL SEE A  
SECONDARY PERIOD OF POSSIBLE TSRA, WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE  
MIDSOUTH TAF SITES CATCH A BREAK FROM STORMS.  
 
VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR THE TUESDAY EVENING MEM INBOUND  
PUSH.  
 
PWB  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT TUE JUL 1 2025  
 
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT 7  
DAYS. WETTING RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE  
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. A MUCH DRIER PATTERN IS  
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY  
VALUES WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 45% OVER THE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS  
AVIATION...PWB  
 
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