774  
FXUS64 KMEG 191713  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1213 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1013 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY  
THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON TAP FOR THE MID-SOUTH.  
EXPECT LIGHT E/SE WINDS AND TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 60F. A FEW  
MID CLOUDS WILL SKIRT NE ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL. FORECAST  
LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE SKY COVER.  
 
SJM  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019/  
 
ANOTHER QUIET AND CALM NIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. WINDS ARE  
MAINLY CALM ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AREAWIDE.  
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER  
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A 1014MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TEXAS  
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. LATEST GOES-EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY  
DEPICTS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. A COMPACT  
SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH AN OPEN AND  
POSITIVELY TILTED WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...  
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND WINDS TO SWING BACK  
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO  
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW PASSING MID  
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.  
 
A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT  
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO  
THE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM,  
ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE WAVE  
WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO  
BUILD ON FRIDAY AND MUCH OF SATURDAY, LEADING TO DRY AND NEAR  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EXPECT PLENTY OF  
SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.  
 
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...  
A PROGRESSIVE AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE US FOR NEXT WEEK, HIGHLIGHTED BY A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING  
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK. DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE  
OF THE PATTERN, NOT A LOT OF DETAIL CAN BE HAD BEYOND SUNDAY AT  
THIS POINT. THIS PATTERN WILL LOOSELY TRANSLATE TO INCREASED RAIN  
CHANCES, MORE HUMIDITY, AND AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEXT  
WEEK. STAY TUNED.  
 
AC3  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z TAF CYCLE  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME  
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA  
BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 5  
TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10  
KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
ARS  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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