989
FXUS64 KMEG 181647
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1147 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES, WITH A GENERAL WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL ARISE MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. OBEY ANY LOCAL BURN BANS AND PROPERLY
DISPOSE OF CIGARETTES AND MATCHES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
YET ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL, FALL-LIKE DAY IS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, WITH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
ALOFT EVENTUALLY GIVING WAY TO GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A DRY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE AS A RESULT,
WITH NO PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND
RETURN TO ABOVE-NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. EXPECT FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE BACK INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY, RISING TO THE
UPPER 70S TO 80S WEDNESDAY ONWARD. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
AROUND TO JUST BELOW NORMAL THOUGH, GENERALLY IN THE 40S WITH
SOME LOCATIONS CREEPING BACK INTO THE 50S BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE ONLY CONCERN WEATHER WISE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE THE
THREAT FOR ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. WITH THE LITTLE RAINFALL WE HAVE
RECEIVED, PERSISTENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND RELATIVELY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, OUTDOOR BURNING AND ACTIVITIES THAT INVOLVE
OPEN SPARKS OR FLAMES ARE DISCOURAGED. PLEASE HEED TO ANY LOCAL
BURN BANS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
VFR. NO AVIATION CONCERNS THIS PERIOD. COULD EASILY GO WITH 1-
LINE TAFS, BUT ADDED A COUPLE OF LINES FOR MINOR CHANGES IN WIND
SPEED AND DIRECTION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BETWEEN 30% AND 40% THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, FALLING
BELOW 30% FOR MANY LOCATIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD FOR MUCH OF
THE MID-SOUTH. DESPITE GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE FORECAST, 10-
HOUR FUELS REMAIN BETWEEN 9% AND 11%. AS SUCH, RANGELAND FIRE
DANGER STATEMENTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...JDS
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