917
FXUS64 KMEG 262311
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
611 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT, WITH A
CHANCE THAT A COUPLE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE NEAR OR WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. THEREAFTER, SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES STAYING ELEVATED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH HAS RESULTED IN A WARM
FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE LATER TODAY AS A BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES TOWARD THE
MID-SOUTH. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN QUITE VARIABLE IN TERMS OF
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT THIS EVENING SHOWS
MUCAPE VALUES FROM THE HREF COMING IN ON THE ORDER OF 250 J/KG TO
500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-35 KNOTS. THIS COULD
SUPPORT ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH. WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM,
POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES
FROM THE SREF AND GEFS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH, WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 75TH PERCENTILE VALUE FROM OBSERVED SOUNDING SITES
ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN ALL OF THESE FACTORS, PORTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
THEREAFTER, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED ON TUESDAY AS
THE FRONT APPEARS TO WASH OUT AND MOVE NORTH SLIGHTLY, AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PATTERN WILL
FEATURE SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS A MOSTLY
ZONAL FLOW REGIME KEEPING OUR RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT FRI APR 26 2024
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH JBR AND MEM THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WILL MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND KEEP VCTS IN FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, ITS MAINLY A WIND
FORECAST. SOUTH WIND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE 24-30 HR TAF
CYCLE GENERALLY 15KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR
AVIATION...JDS
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