774
FXUS64 KMEG 191713
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1213 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
UPDATE
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1013 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019/
DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
THIS MORNING WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON TAP FOR THE MID-SOUTH.
EXPECT LIGHT E/SE WINDS AND TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 60F. A FEW
MID CLOUDS WILL SKIRT NE ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL. FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE TO THE SKY COVER.
SJM
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019/
ANOTHER QUIET AND CALM NIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. WINDS ARE
MAINLY CALM ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AREAWIDE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A 1014MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TEXAS
AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. LATEST GOES-EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
DEPICTS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH AN OPEN AND
POSITIVELY TILTED WAVE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AND WINDS TO SWING BACK
AROUND TO THE SOUTH BY LATE TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW PASSING MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS.
A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID-SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO
THE LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND QUICK MOVING NATURE OF THE SYSTEM,
ONLY ABOUT A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. THE WAVE
WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD ON FRIDAY AND MUCH OF SATURDAY, LEADING TO DRY AND NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A PROGRESSIVE AND MILD WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE US FOR NEXT WEEK, HIGHLIGHTED BY A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING
ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH MIDWEEK. DUE TO THE DISORGANIZED NATURE
OF THE PATTERN, NOT A LOT OF DETAIL CAN BE HAD BEYOND SUNDAY AT
THIS POINT. THIS PATTERN WILL LOOSELY TRANSLATE TO INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES, MORE HUMIDITY, AND AT LEAST A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
WEEK. STAY TUNED.
AC3
AVIATION
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 5
TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY.
ARS
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
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