503
FXUS64 KMEG 290855
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
355 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 345 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
-SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY,
WITH AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
-DRY WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
-A WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BEGIN NEXT WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 3 AND 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT MAR 29 2025
ANOTHER MILD NIGHT ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO, WITH READINGS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ALOFT, A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARKLATEX
IS SLOWLY FILLING AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE REGION.
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY ENTERING SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AS LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR WILL BE RATHER NEGLIGIBLE.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD INTO
THE MID-SOUTH IN WAKE OF THE EXITING WAVE. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO DIG ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE TONIGHT WITH A
SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, MODERATE RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT
HIGH THETA-E AIR INTO THE REGION.
INSTABILITY WILL BUILD ON SUNDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 80S AND DEWPOINTS SURGE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S. HREF
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A HEALTHY WARM SECTOR, WITH UP TO 2500 J/KG OF
SBCAPE ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. A LEADING
PERTURBATION, EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN SHORTWAVE, WILL EJECT NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY FORM A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY IMPACT NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL IMPINGE ON THE MID-
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY UP TO 2000 J/KG MLCAPE, 40 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR,
AND 200 M2/S2 OF SRH. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE
EXCEPTIONAL AROUND 7 C/KM. THE MAIN QUESTION THAT REMAINS IS HOW
THE STORM MODE WILL BEGIN AND EVOLVE. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS QUITE
CONTAMINATED WITH SEVERAL SMALL PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED WITHIN IT.
EACH MINUTE WAVE COULD TRIGGER MULTIPLE DISJOINTED WAVES OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT, THE STORM MODE APPEARS TO BE QUITE
MESSY, AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE.
NONETHELESS, THE PARAMETER SPACE WILL SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ALL HAZARDS. THE LATEST SEVERE PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT EACH THREAT COULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS, AND STRONG TORNADOES. A LINGERING AND
LIMITED THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY MORNING AS
THE MAIN COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
DRY WEATHER AND COOL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE
CHILLIEST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE UPPER 30S NORTH OF I-40 WITH LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.
A WARM, WET, AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A DEEP
TROUGH PARKED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
ADDITIONALLY, A FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION AND ACT AS A
FOCAL POINT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
THE MID-SOUTH WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, WHICH WILL PUMP ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK. ENS ESAT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
SURGE TO OR ABOVE THE 97TH PERCENTILE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. EARLY QPF TOTALS THROUGH THIS PERIOD PROJECT 3 TO 6
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. A SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD THREAT MAY EMERGE LATE NEXT WEEK, IN ADDITION TO RISING
STREAMS, CREEKS, AND RIVERS. STAY TUNED.
AC3
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT FRI MAR 28 2025
RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AT TAF SITES OVERNIGHT, FIRST
AT MEM/JBR, THEN SPREADING TOWARDS MKL/TUP. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
FOR RAIN SHOWERS TO OCCUR CLOSER TOWARDS SUNRISE WHEN BEST
SATURATION WILL OCCUR. CEILINGS EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS SATURDAY MORNING. CONTINUED CATEGORY CHANGES ARE
EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON INTO IFR WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDER WITH HEAVER SHOWERS. IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 00Z AS
THE THUNDER CHANCES LEAVE WITH RAIN OUT OF THE AREA BY 02Z SUNDAY TO
END OUT THE PERIOD.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...JAB
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