266
FXUS64 KMEG 051031
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
431 AM CST WED FEB 5 2025
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST WED FEB 5 2025
MILD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY,
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY, WHICH WILL AID THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. THE FRONT WILL RETURN AS A COLD FRONT
LATE THURSDAY, AND RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON EARLY SATURDAY.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES PREVAIL BEHIND A STRONGER COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM CST WED FEB 5 2025
MILD AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THROUGH SATURDAY, UNDER FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. FOR TODAY, A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL
PROVIDE A RELATIVELY HIGH POP / LOW QPF EVENT. MODEST CAPE, BELOW
500 J/KG, WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH MS,
PERHAPS INTO WEST TN THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-45KT
WILL PROVIDE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY, AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS BACK INTO THE MIDSOUTH. NEARLY
ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE, AND THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE
UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. IN GENERAL,
THE PATTERN DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRONG OR PERSISTENT
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT ON THURSDAY. AS SUCH QPF REMAINS MODEST.
THE STATUS QUO WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY, BEFORE A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY.
AFTER THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT,
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH, BACKED BY A
1034MB SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. INITIALLY STRONG FRONTAL FORCING OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL
ENCOUNTER PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.3 INCHES, AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE
OF CLIMATOLOGY. 00Z/05 LREF MEAN CAPE IS PROGGED AT OR BELOW 100
J/KG, INDICATING LIMITED THUNDER POTENTIAL.
FAST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
MODIFY, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF RAINFALL
NORTH OF A STALLED SURFACE FRONT.
PWB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST TUE FEB 4 2025
MAINLY IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE RAIN, CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO LIFR
LEVELS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN AT THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...ARS
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