037
FXUS64 KMEG 162308
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
508 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- THERE IS A 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER TO
MID-TEENS AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
WE ARE GETTING A BREAK IN THE COLD WEATHER TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE BRINGING MILDER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 40S ALONG THE KENTUCKY/MISSOURI BORDERS TO THE MID 50S
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. CLOUDS AND RAIN ARE INCREASING FROM THE
WEST IN RESPONSE TO A POTENT UPPER TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AS THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH APPROACH THIS AFTERNOON, A
COUPLED UPPER JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION, AND A STREAK OF
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, FOCUSED
FROM NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THERE IS A
30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH ROUGHLY
FROM COVINGTON,TN TOWARD PARIS,TN, WITH THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
TOWARD THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THERE IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY
(ABOUT 10 PERCENT) OF A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN ALONG THE
KENTUCKY BORDER AS THE COLUMN COOLS BY WET BULBING. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES, THE JET STREAK WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN TO
140 KTS, CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE. THIS WILL PLACE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. AS A RESULT, THE RAIN
WILL SHIFT INTO THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THIS EVENING, MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM SAVANNAH, TN TO TUPELO, MS. A VERY SLIGHT
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY (MUCAPES >100 J/KG) MAY REACH INTO MONROE
COUNTY, RESULTING IN A LOW CHANCE OF A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS, WITH
LESS THAN A 5 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH, AND THE UPPER LIFT WILL WEAKEN BY
MIDNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF, AND SOME CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY SATURDAY MORNING.
COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY ON GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH. A FEW FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER ON SATURDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES
IN. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD AS ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
LOWER 20S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S. ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY. TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS VERY COLD
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS WITH ANOTHER ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SETTLES
DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOUT NORMAL BY MID-WEEK AS THE
SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT AND THE
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. THIS FRONT MAY TAP INTO SOME
SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE AND BRING RAIN TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH DRIER AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR FRIDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY
AFTER MIDWEEK DUE TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE EASTERN
CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSED OVER MEM A FEW MOMENTS AGO WITH LIGHT
STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 4K FT AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE OVER THE
COMING HOURS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AIRSPACE
TOMORROW, TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-
30 KTS TOMORROW. NO PRECIPITATION OR LOW CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINALS WITH THE SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A
CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE HIGHER
THIS AFTERNOON (AROUND 50%), SO FIRE DANGER IS LOW. 20-FOOT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE MID-
SOUTH ON SATURDAY, WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF
30 TO 40 PERCENT, THOUGH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL HELP MITIGATE
ANY FIRE DANGER.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...DNM
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