885
FXUS64 KMEG 012049
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
349 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW MESOSCALE UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
- A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) EXISTS FOR TWO ROUNDS OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR TODAY IS DAMAGING
WINDS WITH SECONDARY THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
- A COLD FRONT WILL DELIVER DRIER WEATHER AND NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK.
- SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEKEND WITH DAILY
CHANCES FOR POP UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
.MESOSCALE UPDATE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH... ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
CURRENT SCATTERED SUB-SEVERE CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG A SLOW-
MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE AIR
MASS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY IS NOW SIGNIFICANTLY WORKED
OVER, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT MEANINGFUL DEVELOPMENT WILL
REMAIN SUPPRESSED HERE. THE GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR NEW SEVERE
INITIATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD, INTO AREAS WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS REMAINED UNTOUCHED BY EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
WE MAINTAIN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORM OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR THE NEXT TWO HOURS AS THE
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.
A HIGHLY VOLATILE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE,
EASTERN ARKANSAS, AND NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI, CHARACTERIZED BY
3000-4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN INHIBITED BY DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND WEAK ADVECTION OF
MEANINGFUL MOISTURE ALOFT. HOWEVER, THESE INHIBITING FACTORS ARE
BEING OVERCOME AS TEMPERATURES RECOVER AND THE RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (CIN) SLOWLY ERODES. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW NEW SIGNS OF WEAK DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION OF INITIATION WITHIN THIS HIGH-CAPE, YET
WEAKLY-CAPPED, ENVIRONMENT.
THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IS A SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION
ADVANCING FROM THE NORTHWEST, EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION OVER
THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORCED BY AN ANALYZED
SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, CURRENTLY PRODUCING A BAND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH-
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. CRITICALLY, THE ATMOSPHERE DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
ADVANCING LINE REMAINS LARGELY UNCAPPED AND UNMIXED. BASED ON
CURRENT STORM MOTION, THESE SHORTWAVE-DRIVEN STORMS WILL ARRIVE
IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS, CARRYING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH
SUNSET. THE EXACT PENETRATION DEPTH OF THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH AND
EAST REMAINS THE KEY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY.
AC3
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, REMNANT OF A DECAYING MCS, IS CURRENTLY
SURGING SOUTH, ORIENTED ESE-WSW ACROSS W TENNESSEE AND E
ARKANSAS. WHILE INITIAL CONVECTION BEHIND THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN
LARGELY SUBSEVERE (GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH), STRONG POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. MESOSCALE
ANALYSIS INDICATES EXTREME INSTABILITY (3000-4000 J/KG MUCAPE)
AND 30 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR ACROSS SW TN/NE MS, FAVORABLE FOR
UPSCALE STORM GROWTH. STORMS ARE ALREADY INTENSIFYING NEAR THE
TN/MS BORDER. THE MAIN THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO
70 MPH AND PING PONG BALL-SIZED HAIL UNDER THE CURRENT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH, WHICH IS VALID UNTIL 7 PM CDT. UNCERTAINTY
PERSISTS REGARDING THE WESTERN EXTENT OF SIGNIFICANT THREATS,
PARTICULARLY WEST OF I-55.
HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH TODAY'S STORM
EVOLUTION, BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR ANOTHER CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TRANSLATE SOUTH DOWN NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS
SOLUTION SEEMS VERY PLAUSIBLE WITH A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER SE MISSOURI. THE DEGREE TO HOW SEVERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME REMAINS A LITTLE UNCLEAR. THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS BEEN LARGELY UNTOUCHED OVER NE ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
TODAY AS THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
RENEWED OR INTENSIFYING CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, WHERE STORMS TREKKED
THROUGH EARLIER. IF STORMS CAN ARRIVE BEFORE SUNSET, THERE WILL
BE AT LEAST A MEDIUM THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH TOMORROW. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AS UPPER LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A NICE BREAK FROM THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AS BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. BOTH DAYS WILL FEATURE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS, LIGHT WINDS, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST LATE THURSDAY AND
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WILL FEATURE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW AND RATHER PROGRESSIVE
FLOW ON FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE
BAJA PENINSULA LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RELAXES UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AC3
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
THE INITIAL ROUND OF -TSRAS HAS PASSED NORTH OF THE REGION,
CLEARING JBR AND MKL AS OF 18Z. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, A
STALLED FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SAGGING
SOUTHWARD PRESENTS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT. MEDIUM
POTENTIAL FOR TSRA EXISTS AT MEM, WITH A HIGH POTENTIAL FOCUSED
ON TUP. A SECOND, MORE SCATTERED ROUND OF TSRAS IS ANTICIPATED
THIS EVENING, PRIMARILY AFFECTING JBR, MEM, AND EVENTUALLY TUP,
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR MKL. FOLLOWING THE EVENING CONVECTION,
WINDS WILL BECOME CALM UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS: THERE IS MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT
AT MKL AND TUP, WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH LOWER FOR MEM AND
JBR.
AC3
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
AN UNSETTLED AND WET PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SPORADIC SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINTAINING HIGH HUMIDITY AND FUEL MOISTURE.
A DRIER PATTERN WILL EMERGE BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BEGIN TO FALL BELOW 50% STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
SODDEN VEGETATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP FIRE DANGER LOW. DAILY POP
UP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
AC3
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AC3
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page