006
FXUS64 KMEG 130508
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1208 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
- UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
POTENTIAL MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL ALSO EXIST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.
- A SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING THE 90S.
- LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS FAVOR A TRANSITION TO A WET AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PATTERN RETURNING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
A CALM NIGHT IS ON DISPLAY AT THIS HOUR WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
MOSTLY CALM WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE REGION.
AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS IN COMBINATION WITH LOW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS WILL LEAD TO A POTENTIALLY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK AS MIXING OCCURS.
ANOTHER NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND DRY DAY IS IN STORE FOR
THE MID-SOUTH TOMORROW AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REGION. MARGINAL FIRE
WEATHER DANGER WILL ALSO EXIST TOMORROW WITH FORECAST DEWPOINTS
IN THE 40S AND 50S AND OCCASIONAL NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO
20 MPH, AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. A RANGELAND FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT MAY BE WARRANTED.
THURSDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. THOUGH LOWERED
DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE PRESENT THURSDAY, GUSTY WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, LEADING TO LESS OF A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. COME LATE
THURSDAY, WEAK UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION, SURGING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ALSO LOOKS TO EJECT EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED, WITH ONLY INCREASING
HUMIDITY LEADING TO WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. SOME AREAS COULD
SEE READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THIS
PATTERN SHIFTS, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ALSO BEGIN
TO INCREASE AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE LATEST 6-10 DAY
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS IN AGREEMENT, LEANING TOWARDS ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MID-SOUTH. THOUGH, WE'RE STILL A
LITTLE TOO FAR OUT TO IRON OUT THE EXACT DETAILS ON THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM, LATEST LREF GUIDANCE HAS < 20% CHANCE
FOR 500 J/KG AND 30 KTS OF BULK WIND SHEAR. FOR NOW, BE PREPARED
FOR WET AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
AEH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES WITH VFR AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
PREVAILING AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. A FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW, BRINGING A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT
AND SCT090 CLOUDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. BY 00Z, WINDS WILL
DECREASE AGAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH SKC PREVAILING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2026
MARGINAL FIRE DANGER CONCERNS WILL ARISE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. THE MAIN CAUSE FOR THESE CONCERNS WILL BE DUE TO
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW 30 PERCENT
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE MID-SOUTH EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
10-HR DEAD FUEL MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND TO JUST BELOW 10 PERCENT
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD
ACT TO MITIGATE MORE SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AN RFD
MAY BE WARRANTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY GIVEN THE ABOVE
CONDITIONS.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...JAB
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