196
FXUS64 KMEG 210541
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1141 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
- AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE MID-SOUTH
BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAVY SNOW, SLEET, AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL ACCOMPANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION, LASTING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
SINGLE DIGITS.
- LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A
QUARTER TO A HALF-INCH OF RAIN ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. THERE IS A
LOW (LESS THAN 10%) CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
MUCH OF THE CONTINENTAL UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE, LATE EVENING
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH
THE MID-SOUTH ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE HIGH.
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL LATE THIS EVENING
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S.
DOWNSTREAM METAR OBSERVATIONS SHOW MOISTURE BEGINNING TO INCREASE
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MID-SOUTH ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THE AIR REMAINS VERY DRY OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING,
WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 30 TO 40 PERCENT. SHORT-TERM MODEL
TRENDS AND CAMS INDICATE IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE AIR TO
SATURATE OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THUS, CONFIDENCE REMAINS VERY LOW (<10% CHANCE) OF ANY BRIEF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM ABOVE
FREEZING. RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 0.20 INCHES NORTH OF I-40, AND 0.25 TO
0.40 INCHES SOUTH.
THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LOOK INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE FOR A SIGNIFICANT LATE JANUARY WINTER STORM TO AFFECT
THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AGREE IN THE EVOLUTION OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS TROUGH WILL ABSORB
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS PATTERN WILL
RESULT IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEING IN A FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR AMPLE MOISTURE AND LIFT. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A BELOW FREEZING PROFILE NORTH OF I-40, A PRONOUNCED 850-
700 MB WARM NOSE WILL BE PRESENT OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WHERE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY FREEZING
RAIN. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR ICE ACCUMULATION AVERAGE AROUND
60 PERCENT FOR A 0.25 INCHES OR GREATER, AND 40 PERCENT
0.50 INCHES OR GREATER. FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE TN/MS STATE LINE,
SNOW ACCUMULATION PROBABILITIES ARE GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT FOR
AT LEAST 4 INCHES, AND 40 PERCENT FOR AT LEAST 8 INCHES. FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE
NECESSARY IF THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR CHANGES IN SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WATCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS IF
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS CONTINUE WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL DATASETS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PRECIPITATION, VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
1040 MB ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH SETTLES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. CONSEQUENTLY, SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA PERHAPS UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND COLD
WEATHER HEADLINES MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE MID-SOUTH TONIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AIRSPACE. LLWS AT FL020 WILL PERSIST
UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE WITH SCATTERED SHRA DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HREF PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR
IFR/LIFR DEVELOPMENT AT ALL SITES BY MIDDAY. KEPT LIFR CONFINED
TO MEM AND MKL DUE TO HIGHER PROBABILITIES. MINOR IMPROVEMENTS
ARE ANTICIPATED BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE MID-SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND BRING WETTING
RAINS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. EXPECT
ACCUMULATING WINTRY PRECIPITATION BEGINNING FRIDAY THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. VERY COLD AIR IS
ALSO EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ANS
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