344
FXUS64 KMEG 290442
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM 7AM TO
9PM WEDNESDAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AROUND 60 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE (30 PERCENT) FOR PATCHY FROST EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
A BROAD SWATH OF SHOWERS HAS OVERSPREAD THE MID-SOUTH AS OF
MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT. THERE IS ALMOST NO INSTABILITY TO
BE FOUND, SO THUNDER CAN PRETTY MUCH BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION, PWATS ARE JUST ABOVE AVERAGE AT 1.2 INCHES AND THUS
RAIN RATES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE. THIS GENERALLY SOGGY TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW RETROGRADES BACK WESTWARD OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY. A RAIN SHIELD WILL BE PRESENT ALL DAY BOTH ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT AND WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW.
ANOTHER IMPACT OF THIS DEEPENING SURFACE LOW WILL BE THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. LATEST HREF DEPICTS AN 8 MB
PRESSURE DIFFERENCE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO ELEVATED WINDS AT THE SURFACE. A WIND
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SUSTAINED WINDS 25 MPH OR HIGHER WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER STARTING AT 7AM WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE A
POINT AT WHICH THE SURFACE LOW IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL MAKE THE WIND DIRECTIONS QUITE VARIABLE
DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. AFTER THE SYSTEM MIGRATES OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES, WINDS WILL GENERALLY SETTLE INTO A N/NW DIRECTION IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DRY CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURN THURSDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE DEEP UPPER LOW. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, FURTHER
LOCKING IN THIS COOL AND DRY PATTERN. THIS SECONDARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE FIRST FROST ADVISORY OF THE SEASON MAY BE
WARRANTED FOR AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON FRIDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WITH JUST A LITTLE BIT OF
MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL PROMOTE PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT,
ESPECIALLY IF A TEMPERATURE INVERSION MATERIALIZES. MOSTLY DRY
AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAD
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WINDS
EXPECTED TO VEER WEST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AND INCREASE TOWARDS
MORNING, THEN VEER NORTHWEST/NORTH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO MVFR AT JBR WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
LINGER AT IFR AT THE REMAINING SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2025
FIRE DANGER IS NOT EXPECTED THIS PERIOD. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING UP TO AN
INCH OF RAIN ON WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN ON THURSDAY, THOUGH MINRHS LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
50% THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
(30%) OF PATCHY FROST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ009-018-
026>028-035-036-048-049-058.
MO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ001-007-008-
010>012-020.
TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ001-002-019-
048-049-088.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CAD
AVIATION...CJC
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