455
FXUS64 KMEG 242028
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
328 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023
WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FEATURING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WE
SHOULD DRY OUT BY MIDWEEK BUT TEMPERATURES WILL TURN WARMER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING
MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER MIDDLE AND NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI. SPIN IS EVIDENT ON RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA, CENTERED
JUST OVER TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY. SOME REDEVELOPMENT TRIED TO GET
GOING NEAR OXFORD, MS BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. OUTFLOW FROM
STORMS EARLIER TODAY HELPED STABILIZE MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS, WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. MODEL INSTABILITY IS
MARGINAL, AND TAPERS OFF QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA
DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ALABAMA STATE
LINE. EAST OF THE OUTFLOW, TEMPERATURES SOARED TO NEAR 90 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION.
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL TRANSITION INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND
STRETCHES WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN THE
CURRENT DECAYING SYSTEM, IMPACTING A LARGER PORTION OF THE
MIDSOUTH. AS THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR
WEST, A LOW WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION RESULTING IN
SEVERAL DAYS OF SEEMINGLY UNCHANGING WEATHER. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
CONDITIONS WILL SEE HERE IN THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE HOT AND DRY. WE
MANAGED TO MAKE IT THROUGH MOST OF SEPTEMBER WITH RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES, BUT WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY, WE DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE
OF RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND THANKS TO THE OMEGA BLOCK.
30/SIRMON
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023
VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF VCSH AS TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH.
CJC
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS
AVIATION...CJC
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