349
FXUS64 KMEG 121731
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
- COOLER AND CALMER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED STORMS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND A LOW RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
- THE UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK, MAINTAINING A
LOCALIZED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER BY LATE WEEK AS PRECIPITATION
CHANCES DECREASE AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED HEADLINES.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
THE MID-SOUTH IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING A CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY
COOL MORNING, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
GOES EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY, POSITIONED BETWEEN AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE PLAINS. SURFACE ANALYSIS
INDICATES A FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR, CONSISTENT
WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO LIMITED
INSTABILITY.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND WOBBLE WESTWARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION,
SUPPORTING RECURRING AFTERNOON CONVECTION. PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ON MONDAY TO SCATTERED-
TO-NUMEROUS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S. WITH PWAT VALUES
RISING ABOVE 2 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY, EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES
MAY LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS, THOUGH
SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS UNLIKELY. FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE
FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.
BY THURSDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AND SHIFT SOUTH
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, REDUCING RAIN CHANCES.
SUMMERTIME HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 100F TO 108F, WHICH MAY NECESSITATE HEAT-
RELATED HEADLINES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR WILL SLOWLY SINK
SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ACCOMPANIED BY TEMPORARY
MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA. WHILE ISOLATED TSRA
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN
CURRENT TAFS. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS WEAKEN. WHILE HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS NOT
OVERLY AGGRESSIVE, CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE MET AT
MKL AND TUP, FAVORING PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AT LEAST MVFR
VSBYS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY LATE MORNING AS
WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 8 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 40 PERCENT, PRECLUDING ANY SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. ADDITIONALLY, PERSISTENT DAILY CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENSURE FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN WELL-SUPPORTED, MITIGATING WILDFIRE RISK.
NO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3
AVIATION...AC3
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