551  
FXUS64 KMEG 161723  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1123 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 1106 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025  
 
- WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK AS AN  
ARCTIC AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 20  
TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND COULD BREAK SEVERAL DAILY  
CLIMATE RECORDS.  
 
- A WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE MID-SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING  
RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE.  
 
- AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLD WEATHER WILL AFFECT  
THE MID-SOUTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A LARGE PORTION OF  
THE REGION MAY EXPERIENCE SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR 96 HOURS  
OR MORE.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025  
 
THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECTED THE ENTIRE MID-  
SOUTH ON SATURDAY FINALLY EXITED THE MID-SOUTH AROUND THE MIDNIGHT  
HOUR. WELL OVER 40 COMBINED REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING, WIND  
DAMAGE, AND HAIL WERE RECEIVED. THE FLOODING THREAT HAS SINCE  
DIMINISHED AND ALL FLOOD PRODUCTS, EXCEPT FOR RIVER FLOODING, HAVE  
BEEN CANCELLED AS OF 3 AM.  
 
THE LATEST GOES EAST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH  
AXIS OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. KNQA RADAR SWEEP SHOWS SCATTERED  
SHOWERS TRAVERSING AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR.  
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST  
COUNTIES AND A COUPLE OF AIRPORTS HAVE REPORTED LIGHT SNOW OVER  
THE PAST HOUR. THIS AREA OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE  
AREA NEAR DAYBREAK AS THE MAIN TROUGH EJECTS TO OUR EAST.  
MODERATELY BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO USHER IN A COLD  
AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FINALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS A  
1032MB HIGH SETTLES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH  
TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN FAST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. EXPECT DRY  
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.  
 
THE POLAR VORTEX WILL UNLEASH ITS FURY ON US FOR MUCH OF NEXT  
WEEK. AN EXPANSIVE ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL DIVE DOWN ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SETTLE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY  
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE JET STREAM DIVES SOUTH.  
 
ADDITIONALLY, A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY FOR A SIZABLE PORTION OF  
THE MID-SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A  
PACIFIC-ORIGIN WAVE WILL PHASE WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AS IT  
DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM, AMPLE LIFT AND MOISTURE  
WILL BE ON HAND AS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS DESCENDS INTO THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR, WITH A  
POTENTIAL WINTRY MIX FURTHER SOUTH. LREF PROBABILITIES OF 1 INCH  
OF SNOWFALL ARE GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT FROM THE TN AND MS BORDER  
TO THE NORTH. A WINTRY MIX TRANSITION ZONE APPEARS TO BE SETTING  
UP NEAR THE I-40 CORRIDOR, WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET  
POSSIBLE. IT IS STILL A LITTLE EARLY TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON A  
WINTER STORM WATCH, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR AREAS NORTH OF  
I-40. PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL BE TRICKY TO SORT OUT SOUTH OF  
I-40, BUT SHOULD BECOME CLEARER AS HI-RES GUIDANCE BECOMES  
AVAILABLE. WILL CONTINUE TO MESSAGE SNOW PROBABILITIES AND THE  
POTENTIAL FOR THE WINTER STORM.  
 
AFTER THE WINTER STORM EXITS THE REGION, BRUTALLY COLD  
TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.  
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SEVERAL  
CLIMATE RECORDS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN. THE MOST IMPACTFUL PART  
OF THE NEXT WEEK MAY COME AT THE MERCY OF SEVERAL LOCATIONS  
EXPERIENCING SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR 4 DAYS OR MORE. MOST  
LOCATIONS WILL FINALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
THE LONG RANGE FORECAST WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY NORTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL TRANSLATE TO DRY AND BELOW NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
AC3  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025  
 
GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE PAST SUNSET,  
BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION, MVFR  
CIGS WILL PREVAIL. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CLOUD BREAKAGE  
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR JBR, BUT AREAWIDE CLEARING LOOKS TO HOLD OFF  
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.  
 
ANS  
 
 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...AC3  
AVIATION...ANS  
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