723
FXUS64 KMEG 030019
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
619 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 619 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK,
ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASED HUMIDITY.
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS WEEK, LIKELY
PEAKING OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE
RAIN AND FLOODING THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH
THIS WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK,
PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40.
THIS MORNING'S UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, DOWNSTREAM OF LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER
NORTHERN CA AND SOUTHERN OR. THE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL LIFT
INTO LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY, DISPLACING THE STORM TRACK
TO OUR NORTH, OVER THE MID-MS RIVER VALLEY. WE CAN EXPECT MORE
SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY, WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE HIGH TEMPERATURES
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EDGE EAST ON WEDNESDAY, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL SET
UP AN ACTIVE STORM CORRIDOR FROM THE CENTRAL TX INTO THE MID-MS
RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE MID-SOUTH REMAINS UNDER THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK DEEP LAYER
SHEAR (30KT OR LESS) AND CAPPING FROM AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL
LIMIT STORM COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE.
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODEST MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND
SURFACE FRONT INTO THE MIDSOUTH, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF
I-40. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY.
DEPENDING ON TIMING, WE COULD SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF SEVERE STORM
CHANCES NEAR THIS FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, GIVEN DEEP LAYER
SHEAR NEARING 45KT NORTH OF I-40.
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WHILE THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SIMILAR TO A
MID/LATE SPRING PATTERN, THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BE UNDER THE MAIN
INTERFACE BETWEEN THESE TWO SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS, EXPERIENCING
MULTIPLE EPISODES OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MID-
SOUTH WILL REMAIN UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AMPLIFIED
RIDGE, WHICH WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES TO AROUND 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND THREATEN MEMPHIS' RECORD HIGH OF 81.
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S, CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL
LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT TO RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS ARE UNDER A 15% RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY, WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (20 KT OR LESS) WILL LIMIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES OVER THE MIDSOUTH ON FRIDAY.
THE BULK OF MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE WESTERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH BECOMING CUT-OFF OVER BAJA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS A
WEAK NORTHERN BRANCH TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER JET WILL DROP INTO THE MIDSOUTH,
COINCIDENT WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT. THIS SETUP
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL FAVOR
HEAVY RAINFALL, GIVEN PWAT OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCHES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CST MON MAR 2 2026
A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY STILL BISECTS THE AREA BETWEEN MEM
AND NORTH OF MKL. ALL SITES ARE CURRENTLY VFR EARLY THIS EVENING.
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN OVERNIGHT AT JBR. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE TUESDAY MORNING
IS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS AT TUP, AND A
LOW CHANCE (20% OR LESS) AT MEM FOR A FEW HOURS. CONFIDENCE
WASN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AN MVFR DECK AT MEM LATE TUESDAY
MORNING, BUT WE WILL CONSIDER AN ADDITION IN THE 3Z AMENDMENT OR
6Z TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TUESDAY MORNING
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-15 KTS AND GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST MON MAR 2 2026
MID-SPRING LIKE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MID-
SOUTH THIS WEEK, WHILE 20 FOOT WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK, WITH AREAS NORTH OF I-40 MOST
LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE WETTING RAINFALL.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...CJC
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