078
FXUS64 KMEG 231108
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
608 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
- A DRY COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK BEFORE A WARMING TREND OCCURS
MIDWEEK.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK.
- A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE WEEK WILL BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSER
TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
(TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
STRONG RIDGING, WHICH BROUGHT RECORD HIGHS TO THREE CLIMATE SITES
THROUGHOUT THE MID-SOUTH TODAY, HAS BEGUN TO ERODE AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITING THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH IS ALSO CURRENTLY POSITIONED JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE REGION AS OF 03Z, WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH
MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY COOL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWS
MONDAY MORNING ANYWHERE FROM 60 DEGREES AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
40 DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES.
HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 50S AND UPPER 60S, POTENTIALLY
REACHING INTO THE LOW 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.
EVENING UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA INDICATE THAT VERY
DRY UPPER MOISTURE PROFILES SHOULD PREVENT ACCUMULATING RAINFALL
WITH THE FRONT.
COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO TUESDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND
RELAXED UPPER HEIGHTS REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW, THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE
RESOLVED A WEAK 700-500 MB TROUGH EMANATING FROM THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS, FOLLOWING THE RIDGE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE MID-SOUTH TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THE COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, SUFFICIENT HEIGHT FALLS AND WEAK
850 MB FRONTOGENESIS MAY BE ENOUGH TO MOISTEN THE MID LEVELS
TOWARDS RAIN PRODUCTION. HOWEVER, POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW
SINCE THE SURFACE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH FORECAST
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20 F OR HIGHER UP TO 850 MB. THEREFORE,
ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND WEAK WITH NO
EXPECTATIONS OF IMPACTFUL PRECIPITATION.
BEHIND THE WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE, RIDGING WILL RETURN ALONG WITH
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INTO WEDNESDAY. A BACK-DOOR FRONT MAY STILL
REMAIN ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER, WHICH COULD LOCALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER. HOWEVER, BY THURSDAY, A COMBINATION OF UPPER
RIDGING AND SOUTHERLIES WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE
80S. NBM PROBABILITIES OF TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 85 F, A
THRESHOLD THAT WOULD BREAK MULTIPLE RECORDS, CURRENTLY SITS AT
50% - 70% ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE, RECORD-BREAKING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER THIS WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL BE ROUNDING THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAT FRIDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. ENOUGH MOISTURE MAY EXIST WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR ACCUMULATING RAINFALL (<.5") FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-40.
LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-40, CURRENTLY HAVE
A 40% - 60% CHANCE OF DROPPING BELOW 40 F. COOLER, DRIER WEATHER
WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 25 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SUNSET TODAY. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY APPROACH MEM BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME FOR TAF MENTION.
ANS
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1107 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BOTTOM OUT BETWEEN 20% AND
30% MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH 20 FT WINDS BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH.
20 FT WINDS WILL SLACKEN INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SOME ISOLATED,
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (20% - 30% CHANCE) ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI TUESDAY,
BUT MUCH OF THE REGION WILL STILL EXPERIENCE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 40%. SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BRING
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND AND ABOVE 40% BY
WEDNESDAY.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...JAB
AVIATION...ANS
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