306
FXUS64 KMEG 142318
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
- DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE MORE TYPICAL OF
LATE MAY OR EARLY JUNE, AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE MIDSOUTH'S WEATHER. FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS NEAR 90 ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
- DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE, A PASSING DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY,
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SUNNY,
COOL AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY THROUGH FRIDAY REMAINS THE WELL-ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEAR-RECORD WARMTH IS COURTESY OF AN
ANONYMOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE GULF
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST. OVER THE MIDSOUTH, EPS SHOWS FORECAST
500MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE 95TH AND 99TH PERCENTILE OF MODEL
CLIMATOLOGY, INDICATIVE OF THE UPPER RIDGE'S STRENGTH. FRIDAY
WILL LIKELY BRING THE WARMEST SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
AROUND 90 ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40. THIS WOULD BE A NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURE FOR MEMPHIS IN EARLY/MID JUNE.
THE STAGNANT UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FINALLY BREAK DOWN LATE THIS
WEEK. A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT FROM THE 4-
CORNERS AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL SUPPRESS MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE
MIDSOUTH AND PROVIDE UP TO 50KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND
SUNRISE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL DECREASE TO 30 TO 40KT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, IN ADVANCE OF A TRAILING SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE.
00Z LREF JOINT PROBABILITIES OF 1000+ J/KG CAPE AND 30+ KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEER EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT RELATIVELY STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPHS AND STEEP (7-7.5C/KM) MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, SUGGESTIVE
OF LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL. THIS WOULD PARTICULARLY BE THE CASE
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR, WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
STRONGEST.
TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WHILE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION STRENGTHENS
UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. A HIGH AMPLITUDE NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH AXIS WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, DRIVING HEIGHTS DOWN OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY, AND OVER THE MIDSOUTH LATER ON SATURDAY MORNING. A
RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE MIDLEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS, WITH PASSAGE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXPECTED FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A BREAK FROM THE EARLY SUMMER-LIKE HEAT, WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL COOL TO THE
LOWER 30S, DRIVING MINIMUM RH LEVELS BELOW 30 PERCENT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, INCREASING FIRE DANGER FOR AREAS THAT DON'T RECEIVE
WETTING RAINFALL ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND
THEN, SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GEFS AND EPS BEGIN TO
EMERGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, ADDING UNCERTAINTY BEYOND DAY 7 OF
THE FORECAST.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THIS TAF SET IS LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AIRSPACE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
30 KTS BEGINNING AROUND 15Z TOMORROW ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OUT BY 00Z.
AEH
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS
MINRH REMAINS ABOVE 30 PERCENT. WETTING RAIN CHANCES EXIST ON
THURSDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. A COLD FRONT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ANTICIPATED SATURDAY, ACROSS A BROAD
PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH. DESPITE COOL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY,
MINRH VALUES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW
30 PERCENT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE MIDSOUTH.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...PWB
AVIATION...AEH
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