349
FXUS64 KMEG 071713
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1213 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
- PLEASANT AND UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE
50S.
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 90S, LIKELY WORSENING ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE, A 1024 MB
SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS BRINGING A COOL
AND PLEASANT SUNNY MORNING TO THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES AS OF
11 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER 70S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH INTO MONDAY, BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. A NBM/NBM10TH PERCENTILE BLEND WAS UTILIZED FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIRMASS AND THE WARM BIAS THE
NBM HAS IN THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP.
LONG TERM DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THIS WEEK AS AN
OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER, AND DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND BACK TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL FOLLOW A DIURNAL WIND TREND OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SUN SEP 7 2025
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO 25 TO 30 PERCENT ON
MONDAY, INCREASE SLIGHTLY TO 40 TO 45 PERCENT TUESDAY, THEN
RETURN TO AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER. THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASING FIRE DANGER THIS WEEK.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...DNM
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