742
FXUS64 KMEG 291111
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
611 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 608 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
- A CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER THE
ENTIRE MID-SOUTH TODAY WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL, THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN
BECOMES UNSETTLED.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT IS ON TAP AT THIS HOUR WITH CURRENT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH AN OVERCAST
ALTOSTRATUS DECK MOVING OVER MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH AND MOSTLY CALM
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE LATEST NQA RADAR SWEEP INDICATES A FEW
STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. FOG IS ONCE
AGAIN APPARENT THIS MORNING AS SOILS REMAIN VERY SATURATED FROM
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF RAINFALL, CALM WINDS, AND POCKETS OF
CLEARING SKIES. AS WE EDGE CLOSER TO SUNRISE, PATCHY FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG
MAY OCCUR, MAINLY IN LOW LYING RIVER AREAS, THOUGH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING GIVEN PREDOMINANTLY
OVERCAST SKIES.
SHOWERS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS EAST OF OUR
AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN COME MID-AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND TANDEM SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO
THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT. A
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MATERIALIZE OVER THE MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS
STATE LINE AND PUSH INTO THE MID-SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALONG
THIS SHORTWAVE, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVER AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE ENVIRONMENT
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENTERING INTO WILL BE CONDITIONALLY
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR STORMS TO POP ALONG SURGING DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 1500
J/KG OF SBCAPE, AROUND 45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, AND PWATS
SURGING TO 1.7 INCHES, NEARING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5.5 C/KM MAY BE A
LIMITING FACTOR. THOUGH IF STORMS DO POP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING, THEY LOOK TO HAVE A MORE SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE WITH
PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND A TORNADO OR
TWO THAT CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE FRIDAY AS
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION. TODAY'S COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A
PLEASANT FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND BEAUTIFUL AS HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. THOUGH, SUNDAY COULD SEE A
POP-UP SHOWER OR TWO ALONG A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WORKWEEK, UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL BRING OUR TEMPERATURE
BACK TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH A FEW
AREAS LIKELY SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S BY MID-WEEK.
SOMETHING TO NOTE, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES LOOK TO CHANGE LATE
NEXT WEEK WITH A PRETTY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHING A STORM SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY. STAY TUNED...
AEH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPLEX TAF PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA/SHRA
BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THAT COULD RESULT IN VIS/CIG
DROPS. GREATEST CONFIDENCE APPEARS TO BE FOR JBR/MEM. OTHERWISE,
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR
THE MOST PART UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHERE A MVFR DECK WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AIRSPACE. LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY WILL
BEGIN TO SETTLE BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON, QUICKLY
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH
AVIATION...CMA
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