892  
FXUS64 KMEG 192013  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
313 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
   
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS  
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 90S BY FRIDAY AND NEAR 100 DEGREES  
ON SUNDAY. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-  
SOUTH STARTING ON SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD  
THE MID-SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES  
RETURNING TO THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS DEPICTS THAT THE MID-SOUTH REMAINS  
WEDGED BETWEEN A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS CENTERED OVER  
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A LARGE AREA OF TROUGHING ENGULFING THE  
WESTERN UNITED STATES. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE RIDGE IS  
EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST. AS THIS OCCURS, SKIES SHOULD  
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE. DAILY  
HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH WILL BE IN THE MID 90S BY  
FRIDAY AND COULD REACH THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES BY  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DESPITE THESE IMPRESSIVELY HIGH TEMPERATURE  
VALUES, HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA  
THROUGH SATURDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION.  
 
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST, EVENTUALLY BECOMING  
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S., LARGE SCALE TROUGHING IS  
FORECAST OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. IT APPEARS  
THAT AROUND THIS TIME, A NORTHWEST MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME  
BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE MID-SOUTH. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT,  
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF TROUGHING, WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE  
MID-SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE,  
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INTO  
THE REGION. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND  
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, A HEAT ADVISORY APPEARS POSSIBLE  
STARTING ON SUNDAY AS HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACH 105 DEGREES.  
DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE STARTING AROUND THE EARLY  
PART OF NEXT WEEK AS MEAN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE GEFS  
AND EPS DEPICT VALUES THAT ARE ABOVE THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN FOR  
THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2024  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALLOWING FOR VFR  
CIGS AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL VEER EAST BEFORE  
RETURNING TO SOUTHEAST FLOW BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, NO  
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.  
 
ANS  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...JPR  
AVIATION...ANS  
 
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