455  
FXUS64 KMEG 242028  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
328 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023  
   
..NEW SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION
 
 
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023  
 
WE WILL REMAIN IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FEATURING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. WE  
SHOULD DRY OUT BY MIDWEEK BUT TEMPERATURES WILL TURN WARMER. HIGHS  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023  
 
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING  
MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER MIDDLE AND NORTHERN  
MISSISSIPPI. SPIN IS EVIDENT ON RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA, CENTERED  
JUST OVER TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY. SOME REDEVELOPMENT TRIED TO GET  
GOING NEAR OXFORD, MS BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. OUTFLOW FROM  
STORMS EARLIER TODAY HELPED STABILIZE MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS, WEST  
TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. MODEL INSTABILITY IS  
MARGINAL, AND TAPERS OFF QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CWA  
DUE TO LOWER DEW POINTS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND ALABAMA STATE  
LINE. EAST OF THE OUTFLOW, TEMPERATURES SOARED TO NEAR 90 DEGREES  
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DEBRIS CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE REGION.  
 
WEAK WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL TRANSITION INTO NORTHWEST FLOW  
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES AND  
STRETCHES WELL INTO CANADA. ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT  
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL LIKELY TRACK A BIT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THAN THE  
CURRENT DECAYING SYSTEM, IMPACTING A LARGER PORTION OF THE  
MIDSOUTH. AS THE RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR  
WEST, A LOW WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND  
ANOTHER LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION RESULTING IN  
SEVERAL DAYS OF SEEMINGLY UNCHANGING WEATHER. UNFORTUNATELY, THE  
CONDITIONS WILL SEE HERE IN THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE HOT AND DRY. WE  
MANAGED TO MAKE IT THROUGH MOST OF SEPTEMBER WITH RELATIVELY MILD  
TEMPERATURES, BUT WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FEATURE HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, GENERALLY 5-10 DEGREES  
ABOVE NORMAL. ADDITIONALLY, WE DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANCE  
OF RAIN THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND THANKS TO THE OMEGA BLOCK.  
 
30/SIRMON  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN SEP 24 2023  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY LATER TONIGHT. WILL  
CONTINUE WITH A MENTION OF VCSH AS TIMING AND COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY  
REMAINS HIGH.  
 
CJC  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS  
AVIATION...CJC  
 
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