406
FXUS64 KMEG 152317
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
- HAZARDOUS HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
- AN AREAWIDE HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT HEAT INDICES TO REACH UP TO 109 DEGREES FOR SOME
LOCATIONS.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
OUR PROLONGED, UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES ONCE
AGAIN TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY SPANNING
THE 90S ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. UNFORTUNATELY, LITTLE TO NO RELIEF
IS IN SIGHT FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE, WITH A DRY FORECAST
PERSISTING UNTIL AT LEAST THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM DRIVING THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE UPPER 90S
TO NEAR 100 DEGREES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN
THE AFTERNOONS, LEADING TO HEAT INDEX VALUES HOVERING RIGHT
AROUND TO ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105+). WITH INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN OUR HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR TOMORROW, THE CURRENT
HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. AN
ADDITIONAL EXTENSION INTO THURSDAY AND / OR FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE
WARRANTED FOR SOME OF THE MID-SOUTH, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE
EXACT LOCATION. THUS, WILL HANDLE FURTHER EXTENSIONS WITH LATER
FORECAST PACKAGES. THE COMPILATION OF UPPER 90 DEGREE HIGH
TEMPERATURES, HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES, AND LONG-
DURATION OF THESE TEMPERATURES HAS LED TO MUCH OF THE AREA BEING
INCLUDED IN A MAJOR TO EXTREME HEAT RISK. WHILE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DIPPING BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 70S, EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE TAKEN THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. BE SURE TO CONTINUE TO DRINK
PLENTY OF FLUIDS AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF YOU MUST BE OUTSIDE
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH ANOTHER WEAK LOW MEANDERING THROUGH
THE GULF. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL LIKELY AID IN BREAKING US
OUT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE STRONGHOLD WE HAVE BEEN IN, ALTHOUGH THE
TIMING IS STILL QUESTIONABLE. THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
AT THIS POINT HAS THE TEMPERATURE SPREAD GROWING GREATLY BY NEXT
MONDAY ONWARD (AROUND A 10 DEGREE SPREAD), THUS SUGGESTING
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE A
FORECAST CHANGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE WELCOME, WE ARE CERTAINLY NOT
OUT OF THE WOODS YET WITH THE CONTINUED, OPPRESSIVE HEAT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUE. DIURNAL CU FIELD
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING
PROHIBITS ADDITION TO THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
DNM
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE, WITH NO PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AND MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING IN THE 30 TO 40% RANGE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 MPH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
WELL. NO FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ARZ009-018-026>028-
035-036-048-049-058.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MOZ113-115.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MSZ001>017-020>024.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TNZ001>004-019>022-
048>055-088>092.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CMA
AVIATION...DNM
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