682  
FXUS64 KMEG 221749  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
1249 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
AVIATION DISCUSSION.  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 624 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY, BRINGING AN END TO THE  
OPPRESSIVE HEAT THAT HAS PLAGUED THE MS/OH VALLEYS MUCH OF THE  
PAST WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED TO THE WEST,  
ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN  
CONUS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG AN OKC-SGF-IND LINE  
THIS MORNING BUT WILL EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD TODAY AS A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY. SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT HAVE HAD A  
DIFFICULT TIME BUILDING INTO THE MID-SOUTH SO FAR THIS MORNING.  
 
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-  
SOUTH TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. MLCAPE IS  
FORECAST TO EXCEED 2500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE LATEST  
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED 0-6KM BWD TO AROUND 25 KTS. THIS  
ENHANCEMENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN  
PROXIMITY TO AN MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. MULTICELL STORM  
STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AND SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO  
SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD.  
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES, A HIGH MELTING LEVEL, AND  
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED  
HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVING STATED THAT, FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ISN'T  
EXPECTED TO BE MET OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO WARRANT ANY TYPE OF  
WATCH.  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS,  
WITH A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO  
TUESDAY MORNING (MAINLY OVER NORTH MS). BY MIDDAY, THE DRY,  
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.  
 
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE  
MID-SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE  
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. HUMIDITY WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW WITH  
DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT,  
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 0.75" BY  
MIDWEEK (APPROXIMATELY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY).  
IT'S HARD TO ASK FOR MORE PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH IN  
LATE JULY.  
 
THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATE THIS  
WEEK, BUT THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT A CUT-OFF,  
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS  
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS, KEEPING TEMPERATURES  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL ALSO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO  
THE FORECAST. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY OF A DIURNAL  
NATURE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE  
LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED ON SATURDAY, INCREASING A SLIGHTLY SUNDAY  
AND MONDAY.  
 
MJ  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
18Z TAF CYCLE  
 
A RARE MIDSUMMER COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH JBR. CURRENT TIMING  
SHOULD TAKE IT THROUGH MEM AND MKL WELL BEFORE SUNSET AND THROUGH  
TUP AROUND SUNSET. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST 8-10KT, AND FROM THE NORTH 8-10KT BEHIND THE FRONT. A  
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AR MEM AND  
MKL. ADDED A 3HR TEMPO GROUP FOR 3SM VIS AND MVFR CIGS ACCORDINGLY.  
ON STATION THUNDERSTORMS LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS LIKELY AT TUP. CIGS  
MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CIGS  
RETURNING TO MEM, JBR AND MKL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. WIND  
TOMORROW WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10-14KT.  
 
30  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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