654
FXUS64 KMEG 060435
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1135 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
- SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, THEN CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH
MISSISSIPPI, WHERE UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
GOES SATELLITE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR
THE SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER WITH ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW
LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS RESULTED IN MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM JONESBORO AR TO CORINTH, MS.
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE PREVAILED ELSEWHERE. EARLY
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S
WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS PERSISTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, AND LOWER 70S
ELSEWHERE.
THE SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DROP EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATER THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, A
SURFACE LOW IN WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST INTO PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEAR THE GULF COAST. SHORT-TERM MODEL
TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RAIN CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.6
INCHES. T THIS TIME, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR MOSTLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG-RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LINGERING CONVECTIVE RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY UNTIL AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE REGION FOR
THE START OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2025
SKIES STILL CONTAIN SOME VFR CIGS AROUND 10 KFT ACROSS FAR WEST
TN AND EAST AR THAT HAVE STEADILY DECREASED IN COVERAGE. SOME OF
THESE CLOUDS COULD SPREAD OVER INTO MKL AND MEM WHILE REMAINING
OVER JBR THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WHERE SOUTHEASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE
BEGINNING AFTER 00Z AS A NEW SYSTEM ENTERS THE REGION. DROPS TO
MVFR ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS COULD OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW WITH RESPECT TO COVERAGE. AFTER
06Z AT MEM, PREVAILING -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VISBYS ARE ANTICIPATED.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...JAB
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