863  
FXUS64 KMEG 172324  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
524 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 250 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
CURRENTLY SKIES WERE CLOUDY OVER THE MIDSOUTH WITH PATCHES OF  
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE STILL AFFECTING THE REGION.  
TEMPERATURES WERE SEASONAL...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW  
50S. LIGHT FOG WAS ALSO BEING REPORTED AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS WITH  
WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHWEST AT 5-15 MPH. PRESENTLY A COLD FRONT WAS  
TRACKING THROUGH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI.  
 
FOR TONIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL  
WEAKEN AND BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE  
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CLOUDS STICKING  
AROUND WITH EITHER A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHY  
DRIZZLE. LIGHT FOG WILL ALSO BE PRESENT...THOUGH FOG MAY BECOME  
THICKER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW  
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.  
 
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL INFLUENCE THE  
REGION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...AS SURFACE WINDS TURN MORE  
SOUTHEASTERLY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH MILDER HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F FOR MOST. THE APPROACH OF THE  
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP RAIN CHANCES IN THE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS 850MB WINDS INCREASE FROM THE  
SOUTHWEST AND THE CURRENT FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH INTO THE MID  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DESPITE THE LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION  
WAA WILL KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS CLOSER TO AVERAGE HIGH  
TEMPERATURES. INCREASING INSTABILITY LIFTING OUT OF TEXAS AHEAD  
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND NEXT COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE THREAT  
FOR SOME THUNDER TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS  
SHOW CAPE VALUES UP TO AROUND 500 J/KG BY NOONISH...WITH THE GFS  
MORE BULLISH ON THIS COVERAGE. FOR NOW PLAN ON LEAVING THE  
CURRENT WORDING FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST  
MISSISSIPPI IN THE AFTERNOON HWO. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS  
WILL RANGE FROM AN INCH IN THE WEST...TO 2+ INCHES IN THE EAST.  
MODELS ARE ALSO GETTING CLOSER IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS STORM'S  
EVOLUTION AND EXIT SATURDAY NIGHT...SPECIFICALLY THE DEPTH OF  
TRAILING MOISTURE CHANGING OVER TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION. BEST  
GUESS FOR NOW SHOWS RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW BY THE LATE  
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES...THEN EARLY EVENING  
IN THE MEMPHIS METRO AND JACKSON...TO NEAR MIDNIGHT AT  
TUP...WHICH BY THEN SHOULD JUST BE SOME SPOTTY FLURRIES AND/OR  
A TRACE OF FREEZING DRIZZLE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING...UP  
TO ONE INCH ARE MOST FEASIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. IT WOULD  
BE MORE IF THE DENDRITIC ZONE WERE MORE SATURATED...BUT THE OPEN  
NATURE OF THE TROUGH HAS THIS MOISTURE EXITING FAIRLY RAPIDLY  
AS THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR INFILTRATES THE LOW LEVELS. FORECASTED  
SKEW-TS SUPPORT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SNOW  
THAT MAY CAUSE SOME ROAD PROBLEMS. FOR THAT REASON PLAN ON  
ISSUING AN SPS TO ADDRESS THE IMPACT TO ELEVATED SURFACES. THERE  
IS STILL A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS THAT COULD EASILY CHANGE THIS  
THINKING. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST  
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS.  
 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE  
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S. THE SUN WILL RETURN TO THE  
AREA BUT MIDLEVEL CLOUDS CRESTING THE FAST APPROACHING UPPER RIDGE  
WILL SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL WARM TEMPERATURES AND FURTHER DRY THE REGION  
FOR MONDAY.  
 
MID-WEEK...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH  
THE NEXT STORM TO CROSS THE PLAINS. A MORE NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW  
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS A PATTERN CHANGE...WITH ARCTIC AIR  
KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK.  
 
JAB  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z TAF CYCLE  
 
LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST  
PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT  
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR  
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  
 
ARS  
 

 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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