742  
FXUS64 KMEG 291111  
AFDMEG  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN  
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR  
611 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 608 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025  
 
- A CONDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS OVER THE  
ENTIRE MID-SOUTH TODAY WITH PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS  
AND LARGE HAIL, THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.  
RAIN CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
- RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN BY MIDWEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN  
BECOMES UNSETTLED.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025  
 
A MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT IS ON TAP AT THIS HOUR WITH CURRENT  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH AN OVERCAST  
ALTOSTRATUS DECK MOVING OVER MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH AND MOSTLY CALM  
WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE LATEST NQA RADAR SWEEP INDICATES A FEW  
STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG  
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND NORTH OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY. FOG IS ONCE  
AGAIN APPARENT THIS MORNING AS SOILS REMAIN VERY SATURATED FROM  
THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF RAINFALL, CALM WINDS, AND POCKETS OF  
CLEARING SKIES. AS WE EDGE CLOSER TO SUNRISE, PATCHY FOG WILL  
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS. DENSE FOG  
MAY OCCUR, MAINLY IN LOW LYING RIVER AREAS, THOUGH A DENSE FOG  
ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING GIVEN PREDOMINANTLY  
OVERCAST SKIES.  
 
SHOWERS OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF SHORTLY  
AFTER SUNRISE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS EAST OF OUR  
AREA. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE  
AGAIN COME MID-AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND TANDEM SURFACE LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATE FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO  
THE SOUTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT. A  
POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MATERIALIZE OVER THE MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS  
STATE LINE AND PUSH INTO THE MID-SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. ALONG  
THIS SHORTWAVE, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE OVER AREAS  
MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE ENVIRONMENT  
THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ENTERING INTO WILL BE CONDITIONALLY  
SUSCEPTIBLE FOR STORMS TO POP ALONG SURGING DEWPOINTS IN THE  
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AROUND 1500  
J/KG OF SBCAPE, AROUND 45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR, AND PWATS  
SURGING TO 1.7 INCHES, NEARING THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME  
OF THE YEAR. THOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STRONG TO  
SEVERE STORMS, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 5.5 C/KM MAY BE A  
LIMITING FACTOR. THOUGH IF STORMS DO POP THIS AFTERNOON INTO  
EVENING, THEY LOOK TO HAVE A MORE SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE WITH  
PRIMARY THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL, AND A TORNADO OR  
TWO THAT CAN'T BE RULED OUT.  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE FRIDAY AS  
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGIN TO  
BUILD OVER THE REGION. TODAY'S COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN A  
PLEASANT FRIDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER  
70S. THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND BEAUTIFUL AS HIGH  
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. THOUGH, SUNDAY COULD SEE A  
POP-UP SHOWER OR TWO ALONG A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE  
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WORKWEEK, UPPER-LEVEL  
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL BRING OUR TEMPERATURE  
BACK TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH A FEW  
AREAS LIKELY SEEING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S BY MID-WEEK.  
SOMETHING TO NOTE, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES LOOK TO CHANGE LATE  
NEXT WEEK WITH A PRETTY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND MID-LEVEL TROUGH  
PUSHING A STORM SYSTEM THROUGH THURSDAY. STAY TUNED...  
 
AEH  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025  
 
SOMEWHAT OF A COMPLEX TAF PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA/SHRA  
BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THAT COULD RESULT IN VIS/CIG  
DROPS. GREATEST CONFIDENCE APPEARS TO BE FOR JBR/MEM. OTHERWISE,  
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR FOR  
THE MOST PART UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHERE A MVFR DECK WILL  
PASS THROUGH THE AIRSPACE. LIGHT, VARIABLE WINDS CURRENTLY WILL  
BEGIN TO SETTLE BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON, QUICKLY  
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT.  
 
 
   
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AR...NONE.  
MO...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
TN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
PUBLIC FORECAST...AEH  
AVIATION...CMA  
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