917
FXUS64 KMEG 291511
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1011 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2023
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2023
THE SOUTHEAST UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED EAST OVER THE CAROLINAS,
BRINGING THE WESTERLIES BACK INTO THE PICTURE ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH. WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY AND
PRECLUDE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WE'LL STILL SEE A WEAK DIURNAL
CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT WILL DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET.
OTHERWISE, DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE
MADE TO THE FORECAST.
MJ
SYNOPSIS
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2023
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY STARTING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2023
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL LOW PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
EVENTUALLY SLIDE EAST BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE
SUMMER-LIKE. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S WITH LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE LOW 60S. HUMID AIR WILL CREEP INTO THE REGION THIS
WEEK AS DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BRINGS NO NOTABLE WEATHER. AFTERNOON
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE RISK OF
ANY SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW, AND QPF VALUES AREN'T PARTICULARLY
ROBUST. BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO WEEKEND, THERE SEEMS TO BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN AS A WEAK GULF LOW MOVES INTO
MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. AT THIS TIME, THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2023
VFR. LIGHT NE WINDS TODAY BECOMING CALM TONIGHT.
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ001-007-008-
011-012-020.
TN...NONE.
UPDATE...MJ
PUBLIC FORECAST...SWB
AVIATION...SJM
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