682
FXUS64 KMEG 221749
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1249 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 624 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019/
DISCUSSION...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFT IS UNDERWAY, BRINGING AN END TO THE
OPPRESSIVE HEAT THAT HAS PLAGUED THE MS/OH VALLEYS MUCH OF THE
PAST WEEK. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED TO THE WEST,
ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ALONG AN OKC-SGF-IND LINE
THIS MORNING BUT WILL EVENTUALLY ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD TODAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, BUT HAVE HAD A
DIFFICULT TIME BUILDING INTO THE MID-SOUTH SO FAR THIS MORNING.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA. MLCAPE IS
FORECAST TO EXCEED 2500 J/KG IN THE WARM SECTOR AND THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED 0-6KM BWD TO AROUND 25 KTS. THIS
ENHANCEMENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN
PROXIMITY TO AN MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. MULTICELL STORM
STRUCTURES ARE LIKELY TODAY AND SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES, A HIGH MELTING LEVEL, AND
RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOTIONS WILL ENHANCE THE RISK FOR LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVING STATED THAT, FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ISN'T
EXPECTED TO BE MET OVER A LARGE ENOUGH AREA TO WARRANT ANY TYPE OF
WATCH.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
WITH A BAND OF POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO
TUESDAY MORNING (MAINLY OVER NORTH MS). BY MIDDAY, THE DRY,
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL TAKE HOLD OF THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
MID-SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. HUMIDITY WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW WITH
DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE AFTERNOON. IN FACT,
PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED TO FALL TO LESS THAN 0.75" BY
MIDWEEK (APPROXIMATELY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMATOLOGY).
IT'S HARD TO ASK FOR MORE PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH IN
LATE JULY.
THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT LATE THIS
WEEK, BUT THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT A CUT-OFF,
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL MAINTAIN LOWER GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL ALSO BRING RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST. CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE PRIMARILY OF A DIURNAL
NATURE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE
LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED ON SATURDAY, INCREASING A SLIGHTLY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
MJ
AVIATION
18Z TAF CYCLE
A RARE MIDSUMMER COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH JBR. CURRENT TIMING
SHOULD TAKE IT THROUGH MEM AND MKL WELL BEFORE SUNSET AND THROUGH
TUP AROUND SUNSET. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST 8-10KT, AND FROM THE NORTH 8-10KT BEHIND THE FRONT. A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AR MEM AND
MKL. ADDED A 3HR TEMPO GROUP FOR 3SM VIS AND MVFR CIGS ACCORDINGLY.
ON STATION THUNDERSTORMS LOOK SLIGHTLY LESS LIKELY AT TUP. CIGS
MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR IFR LEVELS BRIEFLY OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CIGS
RETURNING TO MEM, JBR AND MKL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW. WIND
TOMORROW WILL BE FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 10-14KT.
30
MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page