996
FXUS64 KMOB 281937
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
237 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 235 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
GREATEST HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PEAK HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 95-100 THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING
TO AROUND 103-110 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT TO
THE NORTHEAST, LEAVING THE AREA IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS REVEALING THE PRESENCE OF A
WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER OUR MARINE ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW LIKELY PROVIDED ENOUGH VORTICITY FOR AT
LEAST ONE NOTABLE WATERSPOUT JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE DUE
TO DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR.
A BAND OF TROPICAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. GIVEN PWATS AROUND 2.2 INCHES EAST OF
I-65, THIS ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO HIGH
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 3 IN/HR. WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOW, BUT SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. FARTHER NORTHWEST, A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES UNDER 20%.
RESIDUAL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO
AROUND 30-40% OVER THE INTERIOR, WITH POPS REMAINING BELOW 20%
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE DRAWING A DEEPLY MOIST TROPICAL
AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INFLUX OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD BRING A FEW BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 60-80% RANGE ALONG THE COAST
SUNDAY, WITH THE INTERIOR REMAINING SOMEWHAT DRIER. REFS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS PWATS APPROACHING 2.2 INCHES AGAIN, SO ANY SLOW-MOVING OR
TRAINING STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN
OFFSHORE, AND ANY ROBUST UPDRAFTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WATERSPOUTS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING
HOURS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS, ESTABLISHING A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY ALONG THE INLAND-PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE. A
BIT LESS CLOUD COVER WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE
90S AREAWIDE. COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 103-110 BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS MAY BE REDUCED SOME IN LATER FORECASTS.
AT THE BEACHES, THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS INCREASED TO MODERATE
FOR SUNDAY DUE TO BUILDING ONSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER, THE RISK MAY
INCREASE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A LOW RISK IS
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JGC/98
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
SURFACE LOW JUST OFF THE COAST WAS HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND
STORMS, GENERALLY EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. GIVEN THIS ACTIVITY,
HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR KPNS AND KJKA TO ACCOUNT FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. FURTHER WEST, CONFIDENCE WAS
ONLY HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE PROB30 GROUP. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. /73
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. A MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND, BECOMING A LIGHTER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK, LIGHT WINDS WILL FOLLOW A
TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE, WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT NIGHT AND
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED BY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. JGC/98
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 89 72 88 / 10 30 50 70
PENSACOLA 74 87 75 87 / 40 40 70 60
DESTIN 75 85 75 88 / 60 60 60 70
EVERGREEN 69 91 69 90 / 20 30 20 40
WAYNESBORO 70 94 71 91 / 10 20 10 50
CAMDEN 70 91 71 90 / 20 40 20 20
CRESTVIEW 69 88 70 90 / 20 40 30 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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