654
FXUS64 KMOB 220917
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
417 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
- A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE FRIDAY MORNING. A
BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AN OCCASIONAL MINI SPINNY
SUPERCELL HAS MANAGED TO ORGANIZE OUT OF A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS BALDWIN INTO MONROE COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH
STORMS, BUT THE MOST ROBUST UPDRAFTS NEXT FEW HOURS COULD SUPPORT
A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND/OR A TORNADO. ANTICIPATION IS
FOR ACTIVITY TO TEMPORARILY WANE INTO SUNRISE BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF FORCING MOVES IN TO REFIRE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE
STORMS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WEAKENS WITH TIME, GOING FROM THE 30 TO 40 KNOTS WE SEE NOW TO
ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOTS BY MID MORNING. CONVERSELY, LOW LEVEL WINDS
RAMP UP INTO THE MORNING WITH 850MB FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 30
KNOTS OR SO. THIS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION US FROM THE MINI SPINNY
ENVIRONMENT WE CURRENTLY SEE TO MORE OF A MULTICELL AND TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL/MINI-SPINNY ENVIRONMENT BY MID MORNING.
THE OTHER THREAT WOULD BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AS STORMS TRAIN
OVER THE SAME AREAS IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA. PMM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THE HREF ENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A
CORRIDOR OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE
MORNING, PARTICULARLY OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. SOME OF THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN REALIZED FROM
THE INITIAL CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS WHICH LEFT A STRETCH OF
UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OF RAIN FROM FAR NORTHEASTERN MOBILE COUNTY
INTO NORTHERN BALDWIN COUNTY. IF A CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL LIKE
THAT SETS UP OVER MORE URBANIZED AREAS IT COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH
FLOODING PROBLEMS. MM/25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING NORTH
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER THE
EAST COAST DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE, WHILST THE PASSING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAINTAINS A SEMI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT RUNNING FROM
SOUTHERN TX TO THE TENN RIVER VALLEY. A SOUPY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE
H20 VALUES OF 1.8"-2.0") THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE FRONT IS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE ADDED
UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THERE IS CONCERN THAT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS A STRONG SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS
NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MLCAPES VARY IN THE GUIDANCE
(BETWEEN 1500-2500J/KG) WITH 0-1KM HELICITIES IN THE 80-120 M^2/S^2.
ADD IN A MODEST 30-35KT 850MB JET PASSING NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WORKING WITH ANY LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THURSDAY'S
ACTIVITY, WIND DAMAGE FROM ANY SPINNERS ALONG WITH BRIEF TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE, WITH TIMING BEGINNING NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY. ALSO, WITH
THE SOUPY AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RAINERS, WATER ISSUES ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF ANY FAVORABLE BOUNDARIES ARE GENERATED.
DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ALONG
AND NORTHWEST OF I-65, BUT ANY DECENT UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS MISSING UNTIL SUNDAY, WHEN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ORGANIZE INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TX.
THE ABOVE SEASONAL RAIN CHANCES WILL CREATE A BELOW SEASONAL TO
AROUND/ABOVE GRADIENT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
TO MID 80S FRIDAY SEE AN UPTICK TO MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, WITH THE LOWER TEMPERATURES BEING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84
SATURDAY AND NORTHWEST OF I-65 SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS
AND OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER LIMITING OVERNIGHT COOLING, LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WITH UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE STRUGGLE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW OVER TX
AND UPPER HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST CONTINUES, WITH BETTER RAIN
CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, CLOSER TO
THE UPPER ENERGY. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN AROUND OR BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, CONSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW VARIES IN STRENGTH, WITH ONSHORE SWELL VARYING IN
RESPONSE. THE TIDAL CYCLE SLOWLY DECREASES INTO THE COMING WEEK, BUT
THE RIP RISK REMAINS MODERATE TO AT TIMES HIGH THROUGH MOST OF THE
WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
VFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PRESENTLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
THE EXPECTATION FOR MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS TO SETTLE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK, MAINLY WEST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR,
POTENTIALLY REDUCING CEILING AND VISIBILITY BY SEVERAL FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AT TIMES. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMES MORE
SCATTERED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS, GUSTING 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3
FEET. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MM/25 /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 84 73 86 72 / 100 60 70 20
PENSACOLA 82 75 85 74 / 90 50 60 20
DESTIN 83 74 84 74 / 60 50 60 20
EVERGREEN 82 71 85 70 / 90 60 90 20
WAYNESBORO 82 70 85 69 / 100 70 70 50
CAMDEN 80 69 84 68 / 100 60 90 30
CRESTVIEW 84 71 87 70 / 80 60 80 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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