655
FXUS64 KMOB 212317
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
617 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 607 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
- SCATTERED, MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PUSH HEAT INDICES INTO THE 100-106
DEGREE RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING, SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED SOUTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FROM THE DAY'S HEATING REMAINS
IN PLACE, FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE PULSE TYPE SEVERE
STORMS. AM EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO SLOWLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. NO UPDATES
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
THE AREA REMAINS IN A NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW PATTERN BETWEEN AN
UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN WHILE
THE UPPER LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND MOVES
NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS ATLANTIC MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA AROUND THE UPPER
LOW. THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE SOUTHWEST. THE RIDGE REBUILDS TO OUR WEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING. A WEAK FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A DRY NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK
BEFORE SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RETURN HIGH TEMPS TO
BACK NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL ALLOW LOWS
TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. /13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
AT 23Z/6PM, WITH DROPS INTO LOW/MID MVFR LEVELS IN CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS CONVECTION MAY
BRING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND MAY AFFECT TRAFFIC OVER THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST WILL SEE THE VFR CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, AND AREA-WIDE AFTER THE WESTERN CONVECTION DIES OUT.
TUESDAY WILL SEE GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS, WITH ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON BRINGING LOCAL DROPS IN
CONDITIONS TO MVFR LEVELS.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
A LIGHT DIURNAL FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING ONSHORE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON THEN OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. A
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND PERSISTS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SEAS WILL BE AROUND 1 FOOT, THEN SLOWLY BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT MAY OCCASIONALLY NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 93 73 93 / 20 20 10 10
PENSACOLA 75 91 75 92 / 10 20 10 20
DESTIN 76 90 76 92 / 20 20 10 10
EVERGREEN 69 94 70 94 / 20 20 20 0
WAYNESBORO 71 95 70 93 / 30 20 10 0
CAMDEN 71 93 71 92 / 20 20 20 0
CRESTVIEW 70 92 71 93 / 20 20 20 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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