149
FXUS64 KMOB 190500
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1100 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1058 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREA BEACHES
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SOME STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
- DENSE FOG ACROSS THE COASTAL ALABAMA MARINE AREA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE EVENING. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE GULF AND WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC IS DETECTING THAT THE THIN LINE OF SHOWERS
HAS FINALLY ENTERED AND IS NOW MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THE COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST, BUT PROGRESSING
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THEN PREVIOUS EXPECTED. THEREFORE, MADE A
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS AND WINDS FOR TONIGHT USING A BLEND OF
CAMS BASED ON THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
COLD FRONT. NO OTHER WEATHER ELEMENTS REQUIRED ADJUSTING EXCEPT
FOR THE MARINE AREA DISCUSSED BELOW. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A CENTRAL STATES UPPER TROF TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE
ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES TONIGHT THEN EJECTS OFF INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING TO
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH A RIDGE OF COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST CAMS
SHOW THAT CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON,
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT, THOUGH IS ANTICIPATED
TO BE WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION IN THE CAMS, THERE IS
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER
PERIOD OF CONCERN GENERALLY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FROM THE EARLY TO MID EVENING
HOURS, THOUGH THIS IS MITIGATED BY UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH
FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE.
DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THEN
MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WELL OFF TO THE NORTH BRINGS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65
ON SUNDAY WHERE THE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT,
WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE FROM AROUND 40
WELL INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 40S NEAR THE COAST, THEN HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR
THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 30S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS
MOSTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70, WITH SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR VALUES UNTIL TRENDING TO MOSTLY THE LOWER 70S FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT TEND TO RANGE FROM THE 40S WELL INLAND TO THE 50S NEAR THE
COAST. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
A MODERATE RISK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW RISK IS EXPECTED FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THEN A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A COLD FRONT THAT HAS BEEN CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
WILL BRING A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN TO AREAS WHERE IT CROSSES BEFORE
MOVING SOUTH OF THE COAST BY 09Z. POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS OF
10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL USHER IN A DRIER AIRMASS, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
DENSE FOG IS CURRENTLY BEING REPORTED ACROSS MOBILE BAY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND IS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE EVENING
DUE TO A SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THEREFORE, THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 11 PM THIS EVENING. WE ARE STILL
ANTICIPATING THE ONSHORE FLOW TO SHIFT TO A MODERATE TO STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO NOW INCLUDE MOBILE BAY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND BEGINNING AT 2 AM TONIGHT. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ENDS AT 9 AM FRIDAY FOR MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI
SOUND, AND AT NOON FOR THE GULF. THE OFFSHORE FLOW DIMINISHES ON
FRIDAY THEN BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS ON SUNDAY. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 44 60 39 70 / 30 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 48 60 43 65 / 50 0 0 0
DESTIN 49 62 45 64 / 30 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 41 58 32 66 / 30 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 38 56 34 68 / 60 0 0 0
CAMDEN 39 54 33 65 / 60 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 45 60 33 65 / 40 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ630>633-
650.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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