023
FXUS64 KMOB 281752
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1252 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY FOR COASTAL
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- HEAT INDICES RISE TO AROUND 100 THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY...A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND, SHIFTING THE RIDGE WEST TO OVER
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING OVER
FLORIDA, SHIFTS SOUTH AS IT BUILDS FURTHER WEST, SHIFTING DEEP LAYER
FLOW FROM MORE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SHUFFLING OF UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL MOVE A BAND OF DRIER AIR OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
(AND PRECIPITABLE H20 LEVELS AROUND DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5 BY EARLY
FRIDAY NIGHT). THIS DRY BAND WILL SHIFT TO OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH A SOUPY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE H20
VALUES RISING BACK TO NEAR 2") MOVING BACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY. FOR THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST MOISTURE
LEVELS GENERALLY WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER TODAY, BEST POPS REMAIN
WEST OF THE RIVER. WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE AREA
FRIDAY, HIGHEST POPS SHIFT TO EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER. BY
SATURDAY, WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER,
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP HIGHER POPS EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE. THE BETTER
POPS SHIFT WEST OVER MORE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS
FURTHER WEST. NEEDLESS TO SAY, WITH THE SOUPY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH
GOOD INSTABILITY (MLCAPES TOPPING OUT AROUND 1500J/KG), ANY OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAINERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR CONTINUED WATER ISSUES, ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER, MORE LOCALIZED PONDING ISSUES REMAIN POSSIBLE.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND TO A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS
AND DAYTIME CLOUD COVER HAMPERS HEATING. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90 EXPECTED
BY SUNDAY. WITH MOST CONVECTION BEING IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
UPPER SUBSIDENCE, HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100F RETURN FOR SUNDAY FOR THE
SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY ON, A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL
SHIFT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER RIDGE FURTHER WEST. A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN REGIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MID WEEK,
MOVING A BIT DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND NEARBY, ALONG
WITH A BIT COOLER AIRMASS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. ABOVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES MONDAY DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 80S BY
THURSDAY. DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, CONSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND, DECREASING SWELL
ON AREA BEACHES. EVEN WITH A LARGE TIDAL RANGE, THERE WILL BE A SLOW
DECREASE IN THE RIP RISK, FROM THE CURRENT MODERATE TO HIGH TO A LOW
BY MONDAY.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. CURRENT
RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE
EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITES TO IFR AND LIFR WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO MVFR BEHIND THE STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS DEVELOP AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AREAWIDE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 86 71 88 / 20 60 30 60
PENSACOLA 73 86 74 86 / 10 40 40 60
DESTIN 74 85 74 84 / 10 40 50 60
EVERGREEN 70 87 70 87 / 20 70 40 70
WAYNESBORO 70 86 70 87 / 20 60 40 50
CAMDEN 69 85 69 84 / 30 70 60 70
CRESTVIEW 70 89 71 87 / 10 60 40 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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