097
FXUS64 KMOB 251143
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
643 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF I-65.
- SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADD PATCHY FOG
MENTION. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. /96
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
WELL THE FIRST SHORTWAVE CERTAINLY PACKED A PUNCH THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IT HAS LUCKILY HELPED STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND HERE.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AT LEAST THROUGH TODAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STILL FIRMLY PLANTED
OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. A COUPLE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE STILL PRESENT
WITH THE FIRST ONE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES THIS MORNING ALONG THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW OF THIS AFTERNOON STORMS. LUCKILY WE ARE AT THE
NOCTURNAL MINIMUM FOR INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE JUST
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS THAN THUNDERSTORMS. FINALLY THE LAST SHORTWAVE
SHOULD KICK THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MUCH LIKE ANY
SUMMER AFTERNOON THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE REMAINING DRIER AIR
ALOFT. STORMS SHOULD HAVE SIMILAR ISSUES WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY A SEVERE HAILSTONE OR TWO DURING THE
AFTERNOON; HOWEVER, OVERALL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS A TICK WEAKER
AND THE SHORTWAVE IS WEAKER LIKELY LEADING TO LESS COVERAGE.
STORMS LOOK TO BE FAR LESS ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON THAN YESTERDAY
AND POTENTIALLY A MORE PULSE THUNDERSTORM ENVIRONMENT OVERALL.
BY FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY A MORE PREVALENT PATTERN CHANGE WILL
BE SETTING UP AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD WITH TIME. AFTER
A COUPLE WEEKS OF RAINFALL AND STORMS, TRUE NORTHERN GULF SUMMER
WILL BE UPON US AS HEAT INDICES LOOK TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS THE
TRIPLE DIGITS AND HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID 90S. WE WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE HEAT PRODUCTS BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS
CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MONDAY.
NONETHELESS, THINGS LOOK TO GET TOASTY WITH THE UPCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND A WHOLESALE PATTERN CHANGE. BB-8
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THIS FOG WILL
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON,
MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE COAST BRINGING VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN A LIGHT DIURNAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY MID-WEEK. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 90 74 91 75 / 60 10 10 0
PENSACOLA 89 77 90 79 / 60 20 20 0
DESTIN 87 78 89 79 / 60 30 20 0
EVERGREEN 88 71 91 73 / 30 20 30 0
WAYNESBORO 89 72 93 73 / 50 20 10 0
CAMDEN 86 71 90 73 / 20 20 20 0
CRESTVIEW 88 72 91 73 / 60 20 40 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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