745
FXUS64 KMOB 031849
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
149 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES. SURF BUILDS TO
5-7 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH SURF COMBINED WITH HIGH TIDE
WILL LEAD TO OVERWASH AND MINOR INUNDATION ISSUES ALONG THE
COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
- INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEKEND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO MORE FLOODING CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT AND RAIN IS ON TAP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A BACKDOOR SURFACE FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE
AND IS CURRENTLY SITTING IN THE CENTRAL GULF. COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE
LOW 50S AND EVEN SOME 40S. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED OFFSHORE
ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN THIS WEEK
WILL BE THE INCREASED SURF ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL BE THE
RESULT OF A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS OUR GULF WATERS AS
A WEAK AREA OF LOWER PRESSURES DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY. LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE SURF WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. SOME COASTAL OVERWASH WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE DURING HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY AS WINDS
MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. IF WINDS TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY PRIOR TO HIGH TIDE ON FRIDAY, SOME MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN MOBILE BAY RESULTING
IN SOME OVERWASH ALONG THE CAUSEWAY. GUIDANCE IS NOT SOLD ON THIS
POTENTIAL; HOWEVER, UPPER END ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES SUPPORT SOME
POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA AND INTO THE MID-SOUTH. ALONG WITH IT
WILL COME A SLUG OF MOISTURE AS PWATS ONCE AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE 2
TO 2.25 INCH RANGE MAINLY WEST OF I-65 BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AS
THIS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH, INCREASED RAIN CHANCES WILL FOLLOW AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING STORMS AND HIGH PWATS COULD RESULT
IN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE
WILL LIKELY NOT BE A DEFINED FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL, IF ANY
STORM DECIDES TO LINGER AROUND LONG ENOUGH OVER AN AREA THAT HAS
ALREADY SEEN PLENTY OF RAINFALL THE LAST MONTH, IT COULD RESULT IN
SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THINGS AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTER THIS WEEKEND, THINGS
WILL GET A LITTLE MORE COMPLEX AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTH AND
OVERALL RIDGING TRIES TO SETUP OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE WILL DETERMINE IF WE ARE
STUCK IN THE SOUP OF SUMMER OR A MORE MILD PATTERN. NONETHELESS,
WE WILL LIKELY SEE A CONTINUED PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS IN A MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BB-8
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY OUTSIDE OF
STUBBORN MVFR CEILINGS OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY LIFT/ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
EXPECTATION FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA RETURNING TO VFR FLIGHT
CATEGORY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE EAST
AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS, 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARER THE COAST. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW AND
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY ACROSS THE BAYS, WATERWAYS, AND GULF
WATERS. ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 64 83 65 85 / 10 0 10 30
PENSACOLA 67 84 69 85 / 10 0 0 20
DESTIN 68 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 20
EVERGREEN 57 85 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 60 84 60 86 / 10 0 0 10
CAMDEN 57 83 59 86 / 0 0 0 10
CRESTVIEW 59 86 61 88 / 0 0 0 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ630>634-655-
675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ635-636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FRIDAY NIGHT FOR GMZ650-
670.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page