661
FXUS64 KMOB 301231
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
731 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND
- HEAT INDICES RISE TO AROUND 100 THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
IT WAS AN EARLY START ON RADAR THIS MORNING AS THE SHOWERS THAT
DEVELOPED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS HAVE
FINALLY PUSHED EAST OF OUR AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE ALREADY
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS OF 7AM. WE STILL
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED, HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BEGIN
RAMPING UP BY LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
07/MB
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. AS IT PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST, A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
AS OUR REGION BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, AND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHEAST US. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL ALLOW
FOR A COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) PATTERN TO SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
US. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A WEAK 'BACKDOOR COLD FRONT' INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGER IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. A SECONDARY PUSH
MAY COME BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
APPALACHIANS, POSSIBLY HELPING TO SHOVE THE STALLED BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS WEEKEND AS DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN PLACE, WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT, AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THANKS TO DIURNAL HEATING. FOR TODAY, AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS JUST TO OUR WEST, SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES MAY HELP TO KEEP
STORM COVERAGE RATHER SPOTTY IN NATURE. BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DUE TO BEING
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA AND THE RIDGE RETREATS INTO THE GULF. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RESIDE OVER INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG. ALTHOUGH OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, STORMS THAT MANAGE TO CLUSTER TOGETHER
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.
PWATS SITTING AT AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STORMS
BEING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ADDITIONALLY, STORMS MAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS AS WINDS ALOFT WILL
LIKELY BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE, CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS TRAIN OVER AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO.
AFTERNOON SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, AS
WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN. HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR WHEREVER THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RESIDES (LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA). WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ALOFT, WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR UPSTREAM FOR ANY STORM COMPLEXES THAT MAY TRY TO ENTER THE
AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN CHANCES LOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AS THE
SECONDARY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO PUSH IN. IF THE BOUNDARY IS
ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE
IN, LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER
HAND, IF THE FRONT STALLS OVERHEAD LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE DID, THEN
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARDS THE STALLED FRONT
SCENARIO
HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS THE AREA. FACTORING IN THE HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
REACH THE 98-103 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS. HIGHS MAY LOWER BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MIDWEEK. LOWS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. DEPENDING ON THE SECOND FRONT, LOWS MAY
LOWER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MIDWEEK. ADDITIONALLY, WITH
SATURATED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS, CANNOT RULE OUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PARTICULARLY OVER INLAND COUNTIES. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. A
LOW RISK SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. /96
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
PREDOMINANTLY OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 7-12 KNOTS
BY THIS AFTERNOON. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 720 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY LATE TUESDAY
AND EASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE EASTERLY FLOW. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 89 73 90 73 / 30 20 50 30
PENSACOLA 87 76 89 75 / 20 10 40 30
DESTIN 85 76 86 76 / 20 10 50 30
EVERGREEN 88 72 90 71 / 60 30 80 40
WAYNESBORO 88 72 91 71 / 50 20 50 20
CAMDEN 87 71 88 70 / 60 20 70 20
CRESTVIEW 89 72 90 71 / 50 20 70 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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