833
FXUS64 KMOB 291827
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
127 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- SUMMERTIME HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES
AS HIGH AS 103 TO 107 ANY GIVEN DAY. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 108 TUESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY MEANDERS NORTHEAST THEN EAST, EVENTUALLY SETTLING OVER
THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE SHIFTING OF THE UPPER
HIGH, SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE SHIFTING
UPPER HIGH GETS DIRECTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A SURFACE
RIDGE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS REMAINS
DISORGANIZED AS A SURFACE LOW ATTEMPTS TO ORGANIZE OFF THE
FL/GA/SC/NC COAST. IT REMAINS ORGANIZED ENOUGH FOR A BAND OF
INCREASED MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES RISING ABOVE 2") TO MOVE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA IN THE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME
BEFORE A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO MID WEEK, WITH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WORRISOME FOR THE SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING OVER LAND AREAS, MLCAPES RISING INTO THE 2000-3000J/KG
RANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH DCAPES IN THE 700-1000J/KG RANGE.
WIND SHEAR IS MODEST AT BEST, WITH LOW HELICITIES (<50 M^2/S^2) AND
BULK WIND SHEAR 25KTS OR LESS. WITH THESE NUMBERS, STRONG TO SEVERE,
MAINLY PULSE TYPE STORMS, ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OVER
LAND AREAS. ALONG THE COAST IS THE WORRISOME AREA. WITH VARIABLE,
DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOW FLOW ALONG THE COAST, THIS AREA SEES UPTICKS IN
LOW LEVEL HELICITIES ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY OVER THE
WARMER GULF WATERS. SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING ENOUGH INSTABILITY
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS COMBINED WITH ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THE
INLAND CONVECTION FOR SPINNERS OVER AND SOUTH OF THE COAST LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA, RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FOR THURSDAY.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORM
MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY SEE A DOWNTURN INTO WEDNESDAY, INTO THE
AROUND 90 TO LOW 90S WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SEE A BIT OF A REBOUND
THURSDAY, INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S, AS DRIER AIR MOVES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE 100-108 RANGE OR A BIT
HIGHER ARE INDICATED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY AS THE BAND OF
INCREASED MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THIS RUN OF
GUIDANCE BEING THE FIRST TO INDICATE THIS, AM HOLDING OFF ON
ISSUING ANY HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...AN ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS MOVES THE UPPER RIDGE OFF, WITH A MEAN
UPPER TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY IN RESPONSE, WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FRIDAY TO BELOW BY
MONDAY, WITH THE INCREASE IN RAIN COVERAGE AND LOSS OF UPPER
SUBSIDENCE.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, ONSHORE FLOW
REMAINS MODEST AT BEST, HELPING TO LIMIT MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE
SWELL ON THE COAST. THE TIDAL CYCLE ALSO DECREASES, HELPING TO KEEP
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS AT THE
TERMINALS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE SLIDES INLAND. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
A MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN DAYTIME ONSHORE NIGHT TIME OFFSHORE
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. A PASSING UPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING
AN INCREASED RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO AREA WATERS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 96 75 97 76 / 0 0 40 40
PENSACOLA 95 78 96 78 / 0 0 60 40
DESTIN 93 79 95 79 / 0 0 70 30
EVERGREEN 97 75 95 74 / 0 0 60 40
WAYNESBORO 98 75 97 76 / 0 0 20 20
CAMDEN 93 76 93 75 / 0 0 30 40
CRESTVIEW 98 76 97 75 / 0 0 60 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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