402
FXUS64 KMOB 020009
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
709 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 709 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR
ALL AREA BEACHES.
- MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA MAY CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO DEVELOP AROUND MID-EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT. THIS
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF OUR FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, EVENTUALLY REACHING ALONG THE
COAST AFTER 4AM. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH COULD OCCUR WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE ARKLATEX. OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD WITH
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
MISSISSIPPI AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR PWATS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.1-2.3 INCHES
(GENERALLY AROUND THE 90TH-95TH PERCENTILE WHEN COMPARING TO
CLIMATOLOGY). THIS, ALONG WITH FORCING FROM THE SURFACE FRONT AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT, AS WELL AS STRONG DAYTIME HEATING, SHOULD
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MS AND AL. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND ENTERS
OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING, THE BEST FORCING APPEARS
TO PULL AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN OVERALL
WEAKENING TREND WITH STORMS AS THEY ENTER OUR AREA. THAT BEING
SAID, WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE, DRIER AIR ALOFT OWING
TO DCAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG, ALONG WITH SHEAR VALUES TO AROUND 25
KNOTS, CANNOT RULE OUT ONE OR TWO MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS, CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OVER OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAGGING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, SETTING UP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE COAST OR JUST OFFSHORE BY
THE EARLY TO MID-MORNING HOURS. MEANWHILE, THE NEXT EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND, OR
A LITTLE BEFORE SUNRISE, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO REDEVELOP. AS STATED BEFORE, MOISTURE POOLING WILL
RESULT IN PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE TO BE IN PLACE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL-
PRODUCERS. AND WITH FLOW MOVING PARALLEL TO THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT,
STORMS MAY ATTEMPT TO TRAIN AND IMPACT THE SAME AREAS. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WITH REGARDS TO THE LOCATION OF THE
FRONT, AS THIS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE/HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. RIGHT NOW THE LATEST 24HR
LPMMS FROM THE HREF SUGGEST THAT LOCALIZED QPF MAXIMUMS OF AROUND
4-6 INCHES SHOULD REMAIN JUST OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, IF THE FRONT IS A
BIT SLOWER AND DOES NOT MANAGE TO MAKE IT OFFSHORE, I CAN NOT
RULE OUT THESE VALUES BEING REALIZED OVER PORTIONS OF OUR COASTAL
COUNTIES, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE WILL MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
CLOSELY.
THE FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AND A DRIER
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS. THIS WILL HELP TO LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE START OF
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY BRING DEW POINTS INTO THE 60S FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THE AREA. IF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, THEY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, HOWEVER, WITH THE DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN, HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, LOWERING TO A MODERATE RISK
FOR MONDAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK DROPS TO A LOW RISK FOR TUESDAY
AND INTO MIDWEEK. /96
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 709 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND MID-EVENING AND
MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THESE STORMS WILL BRING LOCAL DROPS TO FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY, WITH GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS. ADDED A PROB30 GROUP
FOR OUR TAF SITES FROM 02/08Z THROUGH 02/13Z. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE GENERALLY WESTERLY THOUGH THIS EVENING WITH A SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WEST OF I-65 IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE FOR MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI
SOUND FROM 7PM TONIGHT THROUGH 7AM SUNDAY, AND FROM 7PM TONIGHT
THROUGH 4PM SUNDAY FOR OUR LOCAL GULF WATERS. WINDS GRADUALLY
WEAKEN SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BECOMING PREVALENT FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 91 71 92 / 50 40 20 10
PENSACOLA 79 89 73 91 / 60 80 40 10
DESTIN 80 87 75 89 / 60 90 50 10
EVERGREEN 73 91 71 91 / 40 40 20 20
WAYNESBORO 72 92 70 92 / 70 0 0 10
CAMDEN 72 89 71 89 / 70 10 0 20
CRESTVIEW 75 89 73 91 / 60 70 40 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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