865
FXUS64 KMOB 171845
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
145 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 141 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND ELEVATED SURF HEIGHTS UP TO 4
FEET CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE OPEN GULF TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE 100-106 DEGREE RANGE FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY... AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS THIS MORNING
GETS A BIT OF A WESTWARD PUSH AS AN UPPER LOW ORGANIZING OFF THE
EAST COAST PUSHES SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST TO THE EASTERN GULF.
A DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA, DRIVEN BY
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE BETWEEN THE UPPER HIGH AND LOW,
AND A SURFACE RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE APPALACHIANS.
PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES AROUND 1" OR LESS WERE ANALYZED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING,WITH THE DRIER AIR MAINLY ABOVE 10K'.
DRIER AIR DROPS TO 5K' OR ABOVE CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST (KFFC,
KJAX). THIS DRY AIR PUSHES WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, AND
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A DRY FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES NEAR THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST INTO FRIDAY,
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BEGINS TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AROUND THE
UPPER LOW, BRINGING A TONGUE OF INCREASED MOISTURE BACK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH GUIDANCE
VARYING IN THE TIMING AND MAGNITUDE. SOME ARE ADVERTISING SATURDAY
MORNING WITH POPS STARTING TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA, SOME
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS THE FASTEST. THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES LEAN TOWARDS THE GLOBAL MODELS, WITH THE NBM
FOLLOWING ALONG. HAVE MOVED THE FIRST RAINS BACK OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS MOST
SOLUTIONS SUPPORTING THIS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
LOW TO MID 90S FRIDAY RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90S SATURDAY. THE
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY SHIFT THE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES WEST, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM UPPER
90S ALONG AND WEST OF THE ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI STATE LINE, LOW TO
MID 90S EAST. THE INCREASED MOISTURE BEGINS TO SHOW SUNDAY WITH
RESPECT TO HEAT INDICES, WITH 95 TO 99 DEGREES FRIDAY RISING TO THE
100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT ON, THE UPPER LOW OPENS INTO AN UPPER TROUGH AND SHIFTS
EAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK EAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY. THE INCREASE IN UPPER SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH THE
INCREASED MOISTURE THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHEAST SHIFTING EAST.
THE FORECAST AREA DRIES OUT, WITH POPS SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK. A SURFACE RIDGE AGAIN DEVELOPS ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS, RESTORING COOLER, DRIER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS BY
THURSDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES DROPPING BELOW 100 BY MID WEEK.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, THE MODERATE
TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WEAKENS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK, DROPPING THE RIP RISK TO A MODERATE BY FRIDAY AND
WEAK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY, 5-10 KNOTS INLAND DURING THE DAY BECOMING
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CLOSE TO THE COAST, AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL SLOWLY
EASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2026
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW EASES INTO FRIDAY. WINDS
BECOME A MORE DIURNALLY AFTERNOON ONSHORE, NIGHT TIME OFFSHORE THIS
WEEKEND. A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS EARLY IN THE
COMING WEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 69 92 70 95 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 73 91 74 94 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 75 90 75 91 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 66 95 70 98 / 0 0 0 30
WAYNESBORO 66 95 70 98 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 67 96 71 98 / 0 0 0 20
CRESTVIEW 68 93 69 95 / 0 0 0 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ650-
655-670-675.
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