632
FXUS64 KMOB 131126
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
626 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 621 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
- HEAT RISK INCREASES TODAY, WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 11AM THRU
8PM ON THURSDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE 105-112 DEGREE RANGE
WILL BE DANGEROUS FOR ANYONE OUTDOORS FOR EXTENDED PERIODS.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RETURNS TO FLORIDA BEACHES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT,
HAVE EXTENDED THE NORTHERN END OF THE ADDED POPS INLAND, BUT NOT
QUITE AS FAR AS THE I-10. AM MONITORING FOR WATERSPOUTS, WITH THE
NON-MESO TOR PARAMETER ON SPC'S MESOANALYSIS SITE CURRENT
CURRENTLY DECENTLY HIGH. EVERYTHING ELSE IS ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE GULF INTO
THE PLAINS BECOMES CENTERED PREDOMINATELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL STATES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LANDBREEZE
CIRCULATION LOOKS TO AID IN SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST THURSDAY MORNING, AFTER WHICH THE SEA BREEZE SUPPORTS
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF I-65. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF I-65 WITH THE SEA BREEZE. INTERESTINGLY, THE CHANGE IN
ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALLOWS FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
TO MANAGE TO ROTATE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND LEAD TO A SUBTLE
WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY.
THIS WEAKENING AND SOME IMPROVED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WORKING IN
FROM THE EAST LOOKS TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY AND ALSO ON SUNDAY, AFTER WHICH THE MODEST
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY SHIFT TO
OVER THE ARKLAMISS REGION BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THEN TREND TO
HIGHS RANGING FROM 95 TO 100 ON FRIDAY WITH SIMILAR VALUES
CONTINUING OVER THE WEEKEND DESPITE THE INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES
AS CONVECTION WILL BE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT
INDEX VALUES ON THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY 108-110, AND A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM 11 AM UNTIL 8
PM. SIMILAR HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, WITH ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES LIKELY BECOMING
NECESSARY EACH DAY. THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS ON MONDAY TO BECOME
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES THEN ON TUESDAY EVOLVES
INTO A NARROW RIDGE ORIENTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
DESPITE THIS, HOT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL ANTICIPATED WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 95-100 MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR VALUES
FOLLOWING FOR WEDNESDAY AS WELL. WITH NO RESPITE FROM THE HOT
TEMPERATURES, ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
BECOME NECESSARY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON AND HOPEFULLY BRING SOME RELIEF. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE COAST JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE, AND MAY AFFECT NEAR COASTAL AREAS. A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE A LIGHT TO AT
TIMES MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ADDED EXERCISE CAUTION WORDING FOR TODAY'S FORECAST, WITH
COASTAL NOS STATIONS/BOUY'S ADVERTISING AROUND 15KT WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KTS. WAVES/SEAS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH NO
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 94 77 96 76 / 10 0 10 0
PENSACOLA 93 79 95 79 / 20 0 20 10
DESTIN 92 81 93 81 / 10 0 10 10
EVERGREEN 96 76 97 76 / 10 10 20 10
WAYNESBORO 98 76 99 74 / 10 0 10 10
CAMDEN 95 76 96 77 / 10 10 10 10
CRESTVIEW 96 75 98 76 / 20 0 20 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page