732
FXUS64 KMOB 201159
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
659 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
- SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES SATURDAY FOR THE ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREAD AND SLOWLY
LOWER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WHILE A SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AND ARE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
FORTUNATELY, THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE PROGRESSIVE IN NATURE, SO
WE ARE ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
20.00Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW A GENERALLY FLAT FLOW AT HIGH LEVELS AS
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES RIDE EASTWARD ATOP THE AREA IN THE
WESTERLIES. LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE NOSES WESTWARD ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA INTO THE GULF. VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED CONSIDERING THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTIFUL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PWAT'S 2.0
TO 2.2") IN PLACE. IN COMBINATION WITH FORCED ASCENT FROM
MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES INDICATE
HIGHEST RANGES OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AT 2000 TO 3000 J/KG
IN THE PRESENCE OF SFC-500MB SHEAR 25KTS OR LESS SUGGEST A SUMMER-
TIME CONVECTIVE REGIME. THAT BEING AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY SATURDAY. STRONGEST STORMS SATURDAY
LIKELY TO CONTAIN HIGH RAIN RATES, POSING A CONTINUATION IN FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IF STORMS MOVE LITTLE. SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAIN OUTLOOKED FOR ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY. A TYPICAL SUMMER-TIME
DIURNAL MODE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS REFLECT DECREASING COVERAGES
SATURDAY NIGHT.
..SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK
CHALLENGING PATTERN OVER THE MEDIUM RANGE. A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH ELONGATED PRESSURE RIDGE POSITIONED
OVER GULF. WILL MAINTAIN A PERSISTENCE TYPE APPROACH WITH A MODEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AS
THE MOISTURE AXIS HOLDS. THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF SOME
DRYING/LOWERING OF PWAT VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WOULD
TRANSLATE TO LOWER POPS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN OF LATE. BUT BY THE
LATTER HALF THE WEEK, WILL HAVE TO WATCH POTENTIAL OF CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS ROLLING SOUTHEAST. THESE SYSTEMS WOULD BE EMBEDDED IN A
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW AT BASE OF UPPER TROF, EAST OF
THE MS VALLEY.
HEAT INDICES TREND 102 TO 107 MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND THERE ARE
SOME AREAS ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES THAT BREAK INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA AT 108+. PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH FOR HEAT RELATED
PRODUCTS ON LATER FORECASTS.
A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES FOR ALL FLORIDA AND ALABAMA BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
MULTIPLE RIVERS REMAIN IN FLOOD. MOST IN MINOR FLOOD. A FEW AT
MODERATE TO MAJOR LEVELS. /10
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 659 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
ISOLATED LIFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY OCCURRING INLAND AREAS THAT WILL
DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AS
ALTO-STRATUS CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. ANOTHER
ROUND OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS AND BRIEF
VLIFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION ARE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN. KEPT A PROB30 GROUP AT ALL THE
TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY THEN TURN MORE WESTERLY MID WEEK. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3
FEET. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 89 75 88 78 / 80 30 50 0
PENSACOLA 89 78 88 81 / 80 30 40 0
DESTIN 88 78 87 80 / 70 20 30 0
EVERGREEN 86 72 87 75 / 90 20 50 10
WAYNESBORO 86 73 87 75 / 80 20 50 0
CAMDEN 82 71 85 74 / 100 20 60 10
CRESTVIEW 88 73 88 76 / 90 20 40 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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