513
FXUS64 KMOB 011727
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1227 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2023
..NEW AVIATION, NEAR TERM
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2023
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PRIOR FORECASTS WITH GENERALLY MID TO UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER PREVAILING ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART, WITH A COUPLE SPOTS POSSIBLY SEEING
MVFR CEILINGS ATTEMPT TO SETTLE IN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE,
PRIMARILY IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS. DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AFTER THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT THU JUN 1 2023
A MID/UPPER CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST
GULF WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF WILL ADVANCE NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD THIS MORNING, AND THEN STALL ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH
OF ORANGE BEACH ALABAMA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAKING A JOG
BACK TOWARD THE SOUTH. CURRENTLY, THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER A
MEDIUM (50%) CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FOR THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT 2 DAYS. PLEASE REFER TO THE NHC'S WEATHER OUTLOOK AT
HURRICANES.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION ON A POTENTIAL TRACK AND
TROPICAL FORECAST.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
INCREASED MOISTURE TO OUR LOCAL AREA, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ANTICIPATED TODAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
84. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING BEFORE DRYING OUT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR TERM.
OVERALL, WHILE A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE, NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO MODEST INSTABILITY AND MEAGER SHEAR VALUES
SHOWN BY GUIDANCE. THE OTHER IMPACT WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT DUE TO INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS AND
SWELL. ALWAYS REMAIN VIGILANT AND STAY SAFE. PLEASE HEED THE
ADVICE OF BEACH OFFICIALS AND BEACH FLAGS! HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 80S DUE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
SKIES. INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO CLIMB
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER 70S ALONG THE
BEACHES. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 67 90 68 92 67 94 69 91 / 10 10 0 10 10 10 10 20
PENSACOLA 71 87 71 90 70 90 71 88 / 20 0 0 10 10 10 10 10
DESTIN 71 87 72 88 72 88 73 87 / 20 10 0 10 10 10 10 10
EVERGREEN 64 90 65 91 64 94 66 93 / 10 0 0 10 10 20 10 20
WAYNESBORO 65 89 66 91 65 94 67 93 / 10 10 0 10 10 10 10 20
CAMDEN 63 89 65 91 64 93 66 92 / 10 0 0 10 10 20 10 20
CRESTVIEW 65 91 65 93 65 95 66 93 / 10 10 0 10 10 20 0 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ670.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR GMZ675.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB
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