071
FXUS64 KMOB 111841
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1241 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1147 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER OUR LOCAL GULF WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
LOOKING RATHER DRY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. THE OVERALL LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UPPER
TROUGHING TO OUR NORTHEAST AND RIDGING TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN
WILL LIKELY AMPLIFY ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A RATHER
POTENT SHORTWAVE DIVES OUT OF CANADA AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL RESULT IN A RATHER DRASTIC CHANGE AS COLD
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT BEFORE THE GATES OF THE ARCTIC OPEN. LOOKING AT NBM
PROBABILITIES AND THINGS CERTAINLY POINT TOWARDS THE COLDEST AIR
OF THE YEAR. PROBABILITIES OF AIR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 20
DEGREES ARE FLOATING AROUND 30-50 PERCENT MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY
84 AND PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN 25 DEGREES ABOVE 50% ALMOST TO
THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS GETTING COLDER
AND COLDER WITH EACH RUN AND THE FACT THAT GUIDANCE TENDS TO
STRUGGLE WITH THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIRMASSES, IT IS PROBABLY A
PRETTY SAFE BET WE WILL SEE A ROUND OF COLD WEATHER PRODUCTS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ON TOP OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES WE WILL
LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO WIND CHILLS IN
THE TEENS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. BOTH THE AIR TEMPERATURES AND
WIND CHILLS WOULD WARRANT COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AT THE LEAST AND
WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
EXTREME COLD PRODUCTS FOR WIND CHILLS.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS COOLDOWN IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND THINGS WILL
QUICKLY FLIP NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMUP THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S
BY THURSDAY. BB-8
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST THU DEC 11 2025
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES ON SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY OVER THE
GULF WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND A GALE WATCH MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES. WINDS WILL RELAX AND SWING SOUTHEASTERLY BY MIDWEEK.
BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 41 69 52 68 / 0 0 10 10
PENSACOLA 48 69 54 68 / 0 0 10 10
DESTIN 50 69 54 69 / 0 0 10 10
EVERGREEN 35 70 46 69 / 0 0 10 10
WAYNESBORO 36 66 47 64 / 0 0 10 10
CAMDEN 35 66 45 63 / 0 0 10 10
CRESTVIEW 36 70 47 69 / 0 0 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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