003
FXUS64 KMOB 271737
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1237 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING IS TO REMOVE THE
CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FOR TODAY.
HREF PMM AND LPMM GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST COUPLE ITERATIONS HAS BEEN
RATHER ANEMIC WITH 6 HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS, GENERALLY ON THE
ORDER OF AN ISOLATED 1 TO 2 INCHES. CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI GENERALLY DEPICTS 2 TO 3 INCH PER HOUR
RATES REQUIRED FOR ANY ISSUES, AND 4 TO 5 INCH PER HOUR RATES OVER 3
HOURS. WITHOUT ANY APPRECIABLE FORCING, HEIGHT RISES THROUGHOUT THE
DAY, AND THE ONGOING MCS TO THE WEST EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE ON APPROACH TO THE AREA, IT STANDS TO REASON
THAT WE WILL HAVE A MUCH TAMER DAY IN TERMS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. OF COURSE, IF ANY STORMS CAN REMAIN
STATIONARY OVER AN URBAN AREA OR TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS THEN
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT THE
EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY MAKES IT HARD TO
JUSTIFY MAINTAINING A WATCH FOR OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COUNTIES. MM/25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS OUR LOCAL AREA REMAINS IN
BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US. AS WE HAVE SEEN FOR SEVERAL
DAYS NOW, MULTIPLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL QUICKLY PASS
NEAR/OVER THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH FORCING FROM THE
SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD, ALONG WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ADVECTING IN FROM THE GULF (PWATS GENERALLY RANGING AROUND 1.8-2.1
INCHES) AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING EACH DAY DUE TO
DIURNAL HEATING, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY, MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES AS THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY QUICKLY PUSHES INLAND. WITH LIMITED SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL
FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS VERY LOW. THAT BEING SAID, AS
WE TYPICALLY SEE WITH PULSE-TYPE STORMS, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE SLOW-MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS, AS WELL AS THE
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE, WILL LEAD TO STORMS BEING EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCERS (RATES POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 2-3 IN/HR). IF
STORMS MANAGE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS, ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS
WHICH HAVE SEEN ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK, THEN WE
COULD SEE LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGHING DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, HELPING TO SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE FARTHER INTO
THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS ALOFT TO TRANSITION TO A
MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE, KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ONE THING WE ALWAYS HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERNS THIS TIME OF YEAR IS IF STORMS THAT DEVELOP UPSTREAM
ARE ABLE TO ORGANIZE INTO MCS'S AND PUSH DOWN TOWARDS OUR LOCAL
AREA. STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY SPECIFICS, BUT JUST SOMETHING TO
WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. LOWS WILL BE MILD AND HUMID, WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND AND THE LOW TO MID 70S CLOSER
TO THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, WITH SATURATED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS, CANNOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG
DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY
OVER INLAND COUNTIES. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO A MODERATE RISK FOR FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. /96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS WITH MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS. RAIN SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS COULD
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. BEST CHANCES
FOR IFR TO LIFR WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 WITH MAINLY IFR TO
MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTH TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 3 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY AND AROUND 2 FEET FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 86 70 84 / 40 70 30 60
PENSACOLA 73 85 73 84 / 30 50 20 50
DESTIN 74 85 73 84 / 40 40 20 40
EVERGREEN 69 88 69 85 / 30 60 30 80
WAYNESBORO 70 85 69 84 / 40 70 40 80
CAMDEN 68 86 68 83 / 20 60 30 80
CRESTVIEW 70 88 69 86 / 30 70 20 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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