040
FXUS64 KMOB 121829
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
129 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO
107 RANGE TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES,
BECOMING A HIGH RISK BY TUESDAY.
- COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
THE HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH SOME RELIEF EARLY NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE. HEAT
INDICES THROUGH SUNDAY AND FOR AREAS WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN ALONG
THE COAST ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 100-107 RANGE. LOW
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR
80, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, WHICH WILL PROVIDE LITTLE TO NO
RELIEF. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL PATTERN FOR CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING LESS DOMINANT
OVER THE AREA.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
WITH A PATTERN CHANGE AS THE CURRENT RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WE ARE
INFLUENCED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. WPC PLACED THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
DAY 4 (MONDAY) AND NEARLY ALL OF THE CWA IN THE SLIGHT FOR DAY 5
(TUESDAY). I WOULD EXPECT A CATEGORICAL INCREASE AS THE EVENT DRAWS
CLOSER AND A POSSIBLE DAY 5 SLIGHT RISK TO BE INTRODUCED TOMORROW
FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH, BOUNDARY, AND THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
FOOTPRINT, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR MULTIPLE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL NEXT WEEK. ANOMALOUS DEEP MOISTURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY WITH EXPECTED PWATS OF 2.1-2.25". USING
CLIMATOLOGY, THIS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE (1.96") AND SOME AREAS
COULD APPROACH THE DAILY MAX OF 2.29". PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL
HIGHLY DEPEND ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL
BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS AS A MORE REFINED PICTURE BECOMES
EVIDENT.
BEACH FORECAST - THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL REMAIN MODERATE AND
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE HAVE DOMINANT ONSHORE FLOW.
RCMOS SHOWS RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASING TO HIGH FOR OUR BEACHES
TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. SS/97
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING
MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE DIURNAL PATTERN WILL BE
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING AT NIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING DURING THE
DAY. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE NEXT WEEK.
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 75 93 75 93 / 0 20 0 10
PENSACOLA 77 93 78 93 / 0 20 10 10
DESTIN 78 90 79 90 / 0 10 0 10
EVERGREEN 74 96 75 94 / 0 30 10 20
WAYNESBORO 74 94 75 94 / 10 20 10 20
CAMDEN 75 94 75 92 / 20 30 10 20
CRESTVIEW 74 96 75 95 / 0 30 10 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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