564
FXUS64 KMOB 051039
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
539 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 506 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
- SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
TODAY, BUT LOCALIZED FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INCREASES TO A HIGH RISK FOR
ALL AREA BEACHES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND BEYOND.
- MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAVY RAIN EVENT FOR LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
AFTER A CHALLENGING FORECAST OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT IS FINALLY WINDING DOWN. MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-10 RECEIVED 4-7 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS NEAR 10 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
NOON TODAY AS GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FINAL ROUND OF HEAVIER RAINFALL
NEAR THE COAST WITH THE COLD FRONT, THOUGH THIS SCENARIO IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY AND THE WATCH MAY BE CANCELED
EARLY. PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 2.4 INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING GIVEN SATURATED SOILS AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW. MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST ALONG THE SHOAL
RIVER, WITH SEVERAL OTHER COASTAL RIVERS AT OR EXPECTED TO REACH
ACTION STAGE. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S.
NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA, RESULTING IN LOW RAIN CHANCES
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AND
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS,
RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS, BUILDING SEAS, AND
INCREASING SURF.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE GULF LATE WEEK AS A DISTURBANCE NEAR THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NOW HAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
ACCORDING TO THE NHC. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT, TROUGHING
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RIDGING BUILDING WEST OVER
THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC SHOULD RETURN GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES BY LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE,
WITH GUSTY WINDS, DANGEROUS SURF, AND COASTAL FLOODING ALSO
POSSIBLE. THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND TRACK OF ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM
REMAIN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE, BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH VERY CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS TODAY AND TONIGHT, INCREASING
TO A HIGH RISK FOR ALL AREA BEACHES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. JGC/98
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH
OF THIS TAF CYCLE. CIGS ARE 500 TO 1000 FEET AT ALL SITES AND WILL
EVENTUALLY RISE TO UPPER IFR TO MVFR LEVELS. THE PERIODS OF RAIN
AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL KEEP PREVAILING MVFR VIS AT MOST SITES, AND
PROB30 WORDING WILL REFLECT THE TS RISK WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 25
KNOTS AND IFR VIS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP AND IMPACT
TERMINALS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS. NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT AND BECOMES STRONG TUESDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT
STARTING TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG EAST- NORTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FEET STARTING
TUESDAY. JGC/98
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 81 68 82 65 / 70 10 20 0
PENSACOLA 80 69 81 68 / 80 20 40 0
DESTIN 81 70 81 69 / 80 30 50 10
EVERGREEN 81 64 83 60 / 60 10 10 0
WAYNESBORO 82 65 84 62 / 30 10 0 0
CAMDEN 82 64 83 59 / 40 20 0 0
CRESTVIEW 79 65 79 63 / 80 10 30 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR ALZ261>266.
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ650-655-670-675.
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