898
FXUS64 KMOB 181745
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1245 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOOD
SITUATION EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A HIGH RISK FOR
FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, SOUTHERN
ALABAMA, AND THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CONSIDERABLE
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE TODAY.
- NUMEROUS MARINE HAZARDS EXIST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS OCCURRING
AROUND MOBILE BAY TODAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT FROM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY WITH A RISK OF A
FEW TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EVENT UNFOLDING
THE REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS CURRENTLY CREATING
HAZARDOUS IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY CREATING A LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EVENT. A
FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR PRECIPITATION
TOTALS OF 6-12 INCHES OF RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED AREAS UP TO 15
INCHES FROM THIS EVENT. WPC HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA IN A
HIGH RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WHICH IS RARE AND NOT TO BE TAKEN
LIGHTLY. THE REST OF THE AREA IS IN A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY WHICH SHIFTS NEAR THE COAST ON
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO ALREADY HARD HIT
AREAS FROM TODAY.
..HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING
THE RAINY PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
FORECASTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH OUR
MAIN IMPACTS TODAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF POST TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR. AFTER MOST OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR
DEPARTS, WE ARE LEFT WITH LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO MORE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. WE ARE UNDER RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM
THE WPC FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. TODAY, THE AREA IS SPLIT WITH A HIGH
RISK IN THE SOUTHERN HALF AND A MODERATE RISK FOR THE NORTHERN HALF.
OUR DAY 2 RISK IS A MODERATE AND DAY 3 RISK IS SLIGHT FOR
ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE CWA.
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN CLOSE TO FULLY SATURATED BASED ON 12Z RAOBS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
OUR PWATS HAVE BEEN VERY HIGH IN THE 2.3-2.5 INCH RANGE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE AT AND ABOVE THE DAILY MAX FOR CLIMATOLOGY THROUGH
MOST OF FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OF 2+ INCH
PWATS PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OF 14,000+ FEET WILL SUPPORT
EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES. THIS ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS RAINFALL
WITH RATES TOPPING OUT AT 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. THIS ALONG WITH THE AN
ENHANCED LLJ OF 40+ KNOTS ORIENTED CORRECTLY WILL SUPPORT TRAINING
PRECIPITATION THROUGH TODAY. CAMS INDICATE AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
BACKBUILDING LINE OF STORMS TRAILING THE MCS WILL MOVE DUE EAST
CREATING A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TOTALS WHERE THIS SETS
UP. AS OF NOW THIS LOOKS TO SET UP ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE I-10
CORRIDOR.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS BEGAN IN OUR AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
IN OUR MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AND SPREAD EAST INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
FOR WHAT ITS WORTH, MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC CAMS SHOW SWATHS OF 10-16
INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HREF AND REFS LPMMS
FOR 6 HOURS SHOWS 4-7 INCH SWATHS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDNIGHT, AND 24 HOUR LPMMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OF 7-14+ INCHES
THROUGH PARTS OF OUR MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA.
WHILE THESE TEND TO BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE, IT INDICATES THE
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ISSUES. OUR FFG IS STILL
QUITE LOW GIVEN PREVIOUS DAYS OF RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT SOIL
CONDITIONS BEING VERY SATURATED. 1 HOUR FFG IS AROUND 2.25-2.75
INCHES AND 3 HOUR FFG IS NOT MUCH BETTER AT 2.75-3.5 INCHES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE RAINFALL RATES AND TRAINING CONVECTION FLOODING
WILL COMMENCE WITHIN JUST A COUPLE HOURS OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6-12 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AREAS EXCEEDING 15
INCHES FOR THE EVENT. EVEN WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING ON
THURSDAY, THE RISK FOR FLOODING IS STILL HIGH ON FRIDAY AFTER THE
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM TODAY. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A LOT RIVERS IN OR
PROJECTED TO GO INTO MINOR FLOOD WITH A FEW PROJECTED TO GO INTO
MODERATE/MAJOR FLOOD STAGE IN THE COMING DAYS.
..SEVERE THREAT
MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG OVER THE AREA
TODAY. SHEAR VALUES HAVE TRENDED HIGHER AS THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR
APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. CAMS INDICATE THAT THE CURRENT LINE
OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH BACKBUILDING TAKING ON
MORE OF A EAST-WEST ORIENTED LINE OF STORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ALSO
EXISTS ON FRIDAY FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS AS THE WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA WITH A WIND RISK
IF CONVECTION ORGANIZES ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
..COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BECOMES A CONCERN TODAY WHERE HIGH TIDE
COMBINES WITH PERSISTENT INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. P-ETSS GUIDANCE AT
MOBILE STATE DOCKS SHOWS A PEAK OF 2.0 FEET MHHW THIS AFTERNOON. WE
ALREADY HAVE SOME OBSERVATIONS FROM ALDOT CAMERAS SHOWING SPLASHOVER
ON THE MOBILE CAUSEWAY NEAR I-10. VALUES ELSEWHERE APPROACH, BUT
STAY BELOW THE 2.0 FEET MHHW THRESHOLD SO SOME MINOR INUNDATION
COULD OCCUR FOR TYPICAL TROUBLE SPOTS LIKE DAUPHIN ISLAND AND FORT
PICKENS. WE OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY AND BALDWIN COUNTY FOR THAT BEGAN
LATE THIS MORNING AND LASTS THROUGH THE EVENING.
..SATURDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK
THE BROAD TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS TAKES ON MORE OF A MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THE BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES
DIFFUSE OR WILL LIFT NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR
SUNDAY, THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY THEN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS RETURN FOR TUESDAY. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
POTENTIAL A HEAT RISK FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, BUT AS OF NOW
IT LOOKS TO STAY BELOW CRITERIA.
..BEACH FORECAST
HAZARDOUS AND LIFE-THREATENING BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH ALL
AREA BEACHES FLYING DOUBLE RED FLAGS TODAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
IS NOW A HIGH FOR ALL FLORIDA AND ALABAMA BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NWPS SHOWS BREAKERS OF 5-8 FEET AND A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE GULF
COASTLINE IN OUR AREA.
SS/97
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA AND COASTAL MS AND WILL MOVE INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
NUMEROUS TO OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS WILL AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST AND TAF
SITES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING BACK TOWARD THE COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFR VISIBILITES WITH PERHAPS
INSTANCES OF VLIFR VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE LIKELY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS SET UP. CEILINGS WILL BE VARIABLE, HOVERING
BETWEEN MVFR/TO IFR CATEGORIES. ADDITIONAL HAZARDS TO
APPROACHES/DEPARTURES ARE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES
POTENTIALLY TO 25 TO 30 KTS. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS RAMPING UP TO 7 TO 9 FEET TODAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA UNTIL 6
AM FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY, WITH A PRIMARILY LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 84 77 90 75 / 100 80 60 70
PENSACOLA 85 80 90 78 / 100 80 60 50
DESTIN 85 80 89 78 / 90 70 60 40
EVERGREEN 80 74 87 73 / 100 100 90 60
WAYNESBORO 81 75 88 73 / 100 80 90 60
CAMDEN 79 72 84 71 / 100 90 100 50
CRESTVIEW 82 76 89 74 / 100 90 70 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ630>632-634-
650-655-670-675.
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