401
FXUS64 KMOB 122104
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
404 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2020
NEAR TERM UPDATE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/
GENERAL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED, WITH THE LOCAL AREA SITTING ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. A LITTLE
QUIETER THIS AFTERNOON THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. COULD STILL
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT HAVE GENERALLY REDUCED POPS GOING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA,
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERK UP OVER THE GULF
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER LAND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. STEERING FLOW WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT MOSTLY IN THE LOW 90S
WITH A FEW PLACES IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA POSSIBLY
REACHING THE MID 90S. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE
100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. WITH HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, THOUGH,
EXPECT RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW TO HELP COOL OFF SOME LOCATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
PATTERN WILL BE MOST ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WILL MAINTAIN
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS THE TROUGHINESS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THINGS UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A THREAT, BUT A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG, PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUTSY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 70S IN THE MORNING TO AROUND OR JUST OVER 90 DEGREES IN THE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW COULD USHER
IN SOME DRIER AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THAT IS FAR FROM A SLAM DUNK FORECAST THIS
TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS. BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HIGHER END CHANCE
POPS GOING INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. EXCEPTION WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE WINDS AND
WAVES WILL BE HIGHER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS EACH MORNING.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD
RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS/VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS.
WILL MAINTAIN VCTS AT ALL SITES DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB
95/DM
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