723
FXUS64 KMOB 131137
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
637 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPS ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A MODERATE RISK
CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- HOTTER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BECOMING NUMEROUS AND SPREADING INLAND INTO
THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED IN ANY STORMS TODAY. MM/25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
WITH A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZING OVER CENTRAL MS/AL. WITH A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION (PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES ABOVE 2") SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY, WITH
THE HIGHER POPS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. WITH A FOCUSING SURFACE
BOUNDARY ORGANIZING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW (SOMEWHERE
OVER CENTRAL MS/AL), ALONG WITH SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER LEVELS FLOW,
THE RISK OF FLOODING ISSUES INCREASES. INSTABILITY IS MODEST AT BEST
(MLCAPES TOPPING OUT AROUND 1000J/KG ON AVERAGE), ALONG WITH AN
850MB JET OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND COAST (AROUND 30KTS), BRINGING
A LIMITED POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. BY WEDNESDAY, THE
CENTER OF UPPER LOW HAS SHIFTED WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST. GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
DECREASE IN MOISTURE, THOUGH HIGHEST POPS STILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE USUAL AFTERNOON INLAND/
NIGHT TIME ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE GULF PATTERN RETURNS FOR THE
CONVECTION.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, BELOW SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 FOR WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAT INDICES
RISE TO AROUND 100 FOR WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHEAST. DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
DROPPING THE POPS A BIT MORE. OVER THE WEEKEND, THE REGION SEES AN
UPTICK IN MOISTURE LEVELS AS AN UPPER TROUGH ORGANIZES OVER THE
REGION. POPS INCREASE IN RESPONSE. SOME GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
TEMPERATURES RISING TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WHILST OTHER KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT BELOW. GOING WITH A COMPROMISE AROUND SEASONAL,
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS, HEAT INDICES
OVER THE WEEKEND RISE INTO THE 100-107 RANGE OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME LOCALITIES SEEING HIGHER VALUES.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH A LARGE TIDAL RANGE
WILL CREATE A MODERATE TO HIGH RIP RISK, WITH A HIGHER RISK ON OUR
FLORIDA BEACHES. THE RIP RISK WILL EASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK TO A
LOW AS THE ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES AND TIDAL CYCLES SHRINKS.
/16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG/OFF THE COAST AND INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY
ERRATIC WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS AND DROPS OF CIGS/VIS TO
MVFR AND EVEN LOCALLY IFR WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LIGHT
GENERALLY WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING TO 8-12
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SS/97
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
A COASTAL JET ORGANIZING ALONG THE COAST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BRING A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAINLY TO
OPEN GULF WATERS LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE UPPER SYSTEM
CAUSING THIS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE WEST, BRING A LIGHT TO AT TIMES
MODERATE FLOW, WITH A DAYTIME ONSHORE, NIGHT TIME OFFSHORE REGIME
RETURNING TO AREA WATERS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 85 71 88 72 / 80 20 60 30
PENSACOLA 86 74 89 76 / 80 40 50 40
DESTIN 87 76 89 78 / 80 50 50 50
EVERGREEN 84 69 86 69 / 80 40 70 30
WAYNESBORO 85 70 86 70 / 70 50 70 30
CAMDEN 83 70 83 70 / 70 60 90 30
CRESTVIEW 85 70 88 70 / 80 40 60 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
GMZ631-632-650-655-670-675.
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