865
FXUS64 KMOB 210440
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1040 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. NORTHWEST WINDS 6 TO 12 KTS OVERNIGHT. /10
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 506 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024/
.NEW AVIATION
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 506 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HRS. NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. /10
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024/
NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(NOW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSHES INTO THE EASTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE, A STRONG COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AND WILL CLEAR THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT, ALLOWING FOR A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOWS FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
INLAND AND THE MID TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS, THE RIP CURRENT RISK QUICKLY DROPS FROM A MODERATE RISK
TONIGHT TO A LOW RISK ON THURSDAY. /96
SHORT TERM THROUGH LONG TERM...
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
.FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE, A DEEP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CONUS MOVES OFF, LEAVING ZONAL UPPER FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE COMING WEEKEND. A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
AIRMASS HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
LIGHT WINDS AND FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS,
VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP TO BELOW TO NEAR FREEZING OVER AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84, MID 30S TO LOW 40S SOUTH TO THE COAST. WITH THE LOWER
TEMPERATURES, FROST IS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT, WITH PATCHY FROST ON
ELEVATED SURFACES POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCALITIES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
84, BUT STILL NORTH OF OUR SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SEE A GRADUAL RISE FROM BELOW SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ON
SUNDAY.
IN THE COMING WEEK, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS OVER THE SOUTHEAST,
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING TO ANYWHERE BETWEEN THE I-20/I-10
CORRIDORS (GFS) TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO (ECMWF) BEFORE STALLING.
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS
AHEAD OF THE WEAK FRONT (TO AROUND 1.2"), BUT WITH THE WEAK NATURE
OF THE FRONT, GUIDANCE IS VARYING WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLES, KEEPING THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN OVER NORTHERN-
MOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND POINTS NORTH. THE ENSEMBLES
ALSO LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS INTERPRETATION OF TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S DROPPING INTO THE AROUND 70 TO
MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AS A COOLER AIR STRUGGLES TO WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES SEE AN INCREASE FROM
AROUND 50 TO AROUND 60S SUNDAY NIGHT RISE TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
FOR MONDAY NIGHT, THEN SEE A DOWNWARD TREND BACK INTO THE AROUND 50S
TO AROUND 60 FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LARGE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS,
HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST, BUT AM CONFIDENT IN NO WWA-
ABLE WEATHER.
WITH GENERAL OFFSHORE FLOW BECOMING A LIGHT ONSHORE, TIDAL PILING ON
THE COAST IS NOT EXPECTED. A LOW CHANCE OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK.
/16
MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE ADVISORY CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE GULF WATERS. GUSTS OVER THE GULF MAY
OCCASIONALLY APPROACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
AND SEAS BEGIN TO RELAX ON FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FOR SUNDAY. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 40 64 40 62 37 65 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 45 64 45 61 42 64 48 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 48 64 48 64 45 66 51 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 39 63 37 59 32 64 37 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 37 63 36 59 32 64 37 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 38 61 37 55 30 60 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 39 64 37 62 32 68 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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