182
FXUS64 KMOB 231111
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
611 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY WITH A
HIGH RISK FOR STRONG, POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS LIKELY RETURNING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MM/25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THROUGH MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS, THEN SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BEING DEFLECTED NORTHEAST BY
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE PATTERN
MAINTAINS A SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN TX TO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. A SOUPY AIRMASS IS MAINTAINED SOUTH OF
THE FRONT( PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES IN THE 1.8"-2.0" RANGE)
BY A MODEST CONSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE STREAM OF PASSING ENERGY WILL HELP
FIRE OFF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY WELL NORTHWEST OF I-65,
WITH THE PASSING ENERGY BRINGING MODEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT DROPS.
ALSO, WATER ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR, WITH THE SOUPY
AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAINERS.
ANY FOCUSING BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING, AND THE RISK OF WATER ISSUES
GOES UP. BETTER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWEST OF I-65 WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE A DISCONTINUITY IN TEMPERATURES, WITH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
LOW 80S NORTHWEST OF I-65, NEAR SEASONAL NORMS MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTHEAST. THE SOUPY AIRMASS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH
UPPER SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS,
AROUND 70 WELL INLAND, LOW TO MID 70S ALONG AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
TUESDAY ON, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN HANGS TOUGH UNTIL A
SERIES OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS THE CARIBBEAN HIGH SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND ABOVE SEASONAL POPS
CONTINUE. EVEN SO, BEST RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN NORTHWEST OF I-65
THROUGH THE WEEK.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES. CONSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW VARIES IN STRENGTH, WITH ONSHORE SWELL VARYING IN
RESPONSE. THE TIDAL CYCLE SLOWLY DECREASES INTO THE COMING WEEK,
BUT THE RIP RISK REMAINS MODERATE TO AT TIMES HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
/16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA TO START
THE MORNING WITH A COUPLE SPOTS OF MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WHERE SOME
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPED. VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TODAY INTO THIS EVENING, BUT TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS BY
SEVERAL FLIGHT CATEGORIES BECOMES POSSIBLE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS UNDERNEATH ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY STAY OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS TODAY. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3
FEET. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 86 72 85 72 / 70 50 80 60
PENSACOLA 84 74 85 74 / 60 40 50 40
DESTIN 84 74 84 74 / 60 20 40 40
EVERGREEN 84 69 86 70 / 80 30 80 30
WAYNESBORO 86 69 83 69 / 70 40 90 70
CAMDEN 83 68 84 68 / 70 30 90 60
CRESTVIEW 87 70 88 71 / 80 40 60 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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