102
FXUS64 KMOB 201800
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
100 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- LOCALIZED PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
NIGHTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET SETS UP ALONG AND
WEST OF OUR LOCAL AREA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES, EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
SUBTROPICAL JET, WILL QUICKLY PASS NEAR/OVER THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WITH THE SHORTWAVES MOVING OVERHEAD, ALONG WITH
DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS GENERALLY RANGING AROUND 1.6-2.0
INCHES) AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING EACH DAY DUE TO
DIURNAL HEATING, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO OCCUR
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY, AND BEST
COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES WEST OF I-65 (DUE TO
THE CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SUBTROPICAL JET). DUE TO LIMITED
SHEAR, STORMS SHOULD BE RATHER PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE, AND
THEREFORE, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THAT BEING SAID, AS WE TYPICALLY SEE WITH
THIS TYPE OF PATTERN, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, AS WELL
AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SLOW-MOVING
NATURE OF THESE STORMS, AS WELL AS THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE, MAY
LEAD TO STORMS BEING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. IF A FEW
STORMS MANAGE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS REACHING THE 90
DEGREE MARK. LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD AND HUMID, WITH TEMPERATURES
ONLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S INLAND AND THE LOW TO
MID 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. CANNOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PATCHY FOG EACH NIGHT, MAINLY OVER INLAND COUNTIES, DUE TO
SATURATED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS. A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. /96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2026
MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
IFR TO LIFR WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 86 72 84 / 10 40 40 80
PENSACOLA 73 86 74 83 / 0 20 20 50
DESTIN 73 85 75 84 / 0 10 10 20
EVERGREEN 69 90 69 86 / 20 30 10 60
WAYNESBORO 69 87 70 82 / 30 60 50 100
CAMDEN 69 88 69 83 / 30 50 30 80
CRESTVIEW 68 90 69 88 / 0 10 10 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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