849  
FXUS64 KMOB 162313 AAA  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
613 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2021  
   
AVIATION
 
 
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN  
RETURN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. /29  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 325 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2021/  
 
NEAR TERM UPDATE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING  
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO  
PROGRESS EASTWARD. AS THIS TROUGH DEPARTS EAST AND THEN  
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE  
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, THE  
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OVER THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS  
MOVED EAST. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE  
REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE  
(FROPA) AND THIS INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER  
(PWATS LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES) AND COOLER AIR TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS  
INCOMING DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN BY DEW POINTS IN THE 40S NOW MOVING  
INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.  
 
SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE THE NEAR TERM WILL THEREFORE CONSIST OF  
DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RAIN CHANCES. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON,  
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AREA-WIDE, BUT WINDS OVER LAND AREAS  
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A VERY COOL  
NIGHT TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH OF  
I-10 AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH OF I-10. DID TREND  
CLOSER TO THE MOS GUIDANCE (WHICH SHOWED COOLER LOWS) DUE TO  
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.  
HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL THEN LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID  
70S. LASTLY, A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY  
NEXT WEEK. /26  
 
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...FALL CONTINUES  
ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A COOL AND DRY  
HIGH PRESSURE AREA DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW ALOFT  
WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL BY MONDAY, AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENCE  
OF A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE PATTERN ON  
MONDAY, LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS; HOWEVER, LIMITED  
MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK LIFT WILL YIELD CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS  
ACROSS THE AREA. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING  
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE, BUT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS  
WILL BE SLIPPING JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK RETURN  
FLOW OFF THE GULF TRYING TO DEVELOP (ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT).  
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE  
PERIOD, WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 0.5 INCHES UNTIL LATE TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING WHEN THEY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 0.7 TO  
1.0 INCHES. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,  
THEN CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE 50S TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT (WITH  
SOME LOW 60 DEWPOINTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT).  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE THE  
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET BACK UP. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY  
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE  
COAST (A FEW UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). ON MONDAY HIGHS  
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS STILL IN THE UPPER  
40S INLAND, BUT A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST WHERE MID TO UPPER  
50S (EVEN AROUND 60 ON BARRIER ISLANDS) ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY HIGHS  
CONTINUE SLIGHT MODERATION, EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO  
LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT A LITTLE WARMER WITH LOWS  
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID 60S JUST SOUTH OF THE  
I-10 CORRIDOR AND EVEN A FEW UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.  
/12  
 
EXTENDED TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WEAKENS AND AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE  
INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY  
TIMEFRAME. TIMING OF THIS FROPA COULD CHANGE SLIGHTLY ON LATER  
MODEL RUNS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE DETAILS. RETURN  
FLOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST  
ZONES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING MORE  
WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BOTH OF THOSE DAYS WE  
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT CHANCE POPS (ABOUT 30 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY  
AND AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY). FOR NOW WILL JUST CARRY  
SHOWERS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON RETURN FLOW  
AND DESTABILIZATION, SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD CERTAINLY BECOME  
POSSIBLE WITH THE LATE WEEK FROPA. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LOOK  
TO BE DRYING OUT AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.  
 
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE  
YEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW  
DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE EVEN MORE  
ABOVE THE NORMAL LOW TO MID 50S, GENERALLY RANGING INSTEAD FROM THE  
LOW 50S WELL INLAND TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S (AND EVEN A FEW LOWER  
70S) CLOSER TO (AND ALONG THE COAST). /12  
 
MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH  
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 5  
FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY  
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, INCLUDING MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND,  
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD  
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER REMAINING BAYS AND SOUNDS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL  
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BECOMING MORE  
EASTERLY. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE TO BE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET DURING  
THIS TIME. MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP BY  
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. /26  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ630>632-650-  
655-670-675.  
 

 
 

 
 
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