212
FXUS64 KMOB 041729
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1129 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
- STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS WELL.
- A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS IN PLACE FOR OUR FLORIDA BEACHES
TODAY, AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN US
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. OUT AHEAD OF
THE MAIN TROUGH, A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES, EMBEDDED WITHIN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, IS CURRENTLY PASSING OVERHEAD. THESE
SHORTWAVES, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES (PWATS UP
TO 1.1 INCHES), ARE ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SHOWERS TO PUSH ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO THE MORNING
AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SOME VERY
LIMITED, ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BECOME PRESENT DURING THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ALONG THE COAST, HOWEVER, NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. RAIN
CHANCES QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST BY THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
THE FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA.
A MUCH COLDER, DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL US WILL
ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGERING
THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S WEST OF I-65 TO THE MID 30S FOR AREAS EAST. FACTORING IN
THE WIND, WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S
AREAWIDE. AS OF RIGHT NOW, WE SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE OUR COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, HOWEVER, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON
TRENDS LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY
THURSDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE COLD NIGHT OF LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF LATER
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN
ALOFT TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THEREFORE, NO RAIN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH LOW
TO MID 70 HIGHS RETURNING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEEING THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY
VALUES SUGGESTS TO ME THAT WE MAY BE DEALING WITH SOME FOG ISSUES
NEXT WEEK. WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR OUR FLORIDA
BEACHES TODAY, AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN ON FRIDAY. /96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, WITH
OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF VFR CONDITIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AREA-WIDE ON THURSDAY. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SUSTAINED 10 TO 15
KNOTS GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WINDS INCREASE
TO A MODERATE TO STRONG FLOW BY TONIGHT, BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS EFFECT
FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY, SWITCHES BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN DIMINISHES ON SATURDAY. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 61 32 51 32 / 80 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 61 35 52 36 / 90 0 0 0
DESTIN 63 37 52 39 / 90 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 58 31 50 29 / 90 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 55 28 50 31 / 20 0 0 0
CAMDEN 55 29 47 29 / 50 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 62 33 52 28 / 90 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ630>636-650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST THURSDAY
FOR GMZ670-675.
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