516
FXUS64 KMOB 301656
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1056 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1056 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST WEDNESDAY OVER AREAS ALONG I-10 AS WIND CHILLS FALL
INTO THE 20 TO 25 DEGREE RANGE.
- STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT UNTIL DIMINISHING THROUGH TONIGHT.
STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TRENDING TO SEASONABLE VALUES. A SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN
EVENTUALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND ALLOW
FOR A SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TO DEVELOP. LOWS TONIGHT RANGE
FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO AROUND 30 AT THE COAST. IT APPEARS THAT
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES
JUST BELOW 25 OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES TONIGHT, AND A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS PORTION FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY. WHILE SIMILAR WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE EXPECTED FURTHER INLAND, THIS WILL NOT MEET THE INLAND
CRITERIA OF VALUES FROM 11-20. A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES ON THURSDAY AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO AN UPPER
TROF OVER THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES ON
FRIDAY THEN MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THE UPPER TROF PATTERN MEANWHILE AMPLIFYING
TO ENCOMPASS ALL OF THE EASTERN STATES. A SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES, AND BRING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY, AND LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES END FROM WEST TO
EAST ON SATURDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED DURING THIS PERIOD BUT
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S TO OCCASIONALLY LOWER 70S, WHICH IS
ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WARM TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 DROP OFF THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TO RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S TO AROUND 50, BUT EVEN THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
5-10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE VALUES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM
THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LOW
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A HIGH
RISK FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW RISK FOR SUNDAY. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR
LESS TONIGHT, THEN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS FOLLOWS FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST TUE DEC 30 2025
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA GRADUALLY DROPS THROUGH 3 AM TONIGHT. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW FOLLOWS THROUGH THURSDAY.
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHENS
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY
BECOME NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 28 57 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 32 56 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 34 55 44 63 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 26 57 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 26 57 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 25 55 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 26 56 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ263>266.
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
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