609
FXUS64 KMOB 172335
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
635 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. HEAT INDICES WILL
CLIMB INTO LOW TO MID 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
FORECAST ON TRACK. MM/25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A LARGE UPPER TROF DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH
TONIGHT, THEN TAKES ON A POSITIVE TILT THROUGH TUESDAY TO EXTEND
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES. THE PATTERN
EVOLVES TO A MERIDIONALLY ORIENTED UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS BY
THURSDAY, THEN MUCH OF THE UPPER TROF (ALONG WITH A QUICKLY
FOLLOWING SYSTEM) EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE MEANWHILE BUILDS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH TUESDAY THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY AND DISSIPATES BY FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS
TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES ALONG WITH A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WORKING INTO THE AREA. A SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING MOISTURE BELOW 800
MB ON MONDAY WHILE DRY MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS. ANTICIPATE THAT
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A FEW MODEST SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND
AIDED BY THE SEA BREEZE. THE DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL AID IN
DOWNDRAFT PRODUCTION, THOUGH SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SUBSIDENCE EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE LOOK TO
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY WEAKENS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY (EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY), A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE AREA. WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
GRADUALLY TRENDING TO CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS BY SATURDAY. A LOW
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE RISK
FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY OVER INTERIOR AREAS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT DENSE FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE EAST OF I-65 MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BE MONITORED. /29
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT WILL
GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS LATE OVERNIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. THESE CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH THE AREA RETURNING TO VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY BY
MID-MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT, INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS GUSTING 15
TO 20 KNOTS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THEN DIMINISH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 68 86 70 87 / 0 20 0 0
PENSACOLA 71 83 71 84 / 0 10 0 0
DESTIN 71 82 71 83 / 0 10 0 0
EVERGREEN 62 89 65 91 / 0 20 0 10
WAYNESBORO 65 88 69 89 / 0 20 0 10
CAMDEN 63 88 67 89 / 0 30 0 10
CRESTVIEW 64 89 65 91 / 0 20 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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