269
FXUS64 KMOB 040646
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1246 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1244 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
- PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF LOCALIZED FLOODING.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION TODAY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) VALUES INCREASING TO
1.5- 1.8 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ADVANCE FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL THEN SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK, RESULTING IN DEFINITE PRECIPITATION CHANCES (POPS) TODAY
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY LIKELY TO DEFINITE POPS LATE
THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. EMBEDDED ELEVATED NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR
TODAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND
NOON ON FRIDAY. PRIMARILY MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA. OUR ENTIRE AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON FRIDAY, AND FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65
CORRIDOR ON SATURDAY AS THERE REMAINS A SIGNAL FOR MODEST
PROBABILITIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A DRY
PERIOD RETURNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BEACH FORECAST: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO
MODERATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP
BACK TO LOW OVER THE WEEKEND. /22
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST WED DEC 3 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING CLOUDS AND LOWER CEILINGS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ALONG WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES. IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
AFTER 12Z AS LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CST THU DEC 4 2025
MARINERS OPERATING SMALL CRAFT ON THE GULF SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AND THEN
SHIFT SOUTHEASTERLY DUE TO AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH ADVANCING
FROM THE WESTERN GULF TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. MARINERS
OPERATING SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER ALL OUR MARINE
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR HIGHER
WINDS/SEAS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 54 46 56 47 / 100 80 70 70
PENSACOLA 58 51 61 52 / 90 80 90 80
DESTIN 59 52 66 53 / 80 80 90 80
EVERGREEN 52 43 56 44 / 90 90 80 70
WAYNESBORO 47 40 52 41 / 100 90 60 50
CAMDEN 47 40 52 40 / 90 90 70 50
CRESTVIEW 53 45 60 48 / 90 90 90 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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