370
FXUS64 KMOB 112334
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-107
THIS WEEKEND.
- RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS INCREASES TO MODERATE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND FOR THE COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MM/25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
THE HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AS WE HAVE UPPER RIDGING OVERHEAD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WILL DOMINATE THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH SOME RELIEF THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
AND A FRONT APPROACHES. HEAT INDICES THROUGH SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 100-105 RANGE. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL
PATTERN FOR CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TOMORROW AND MAINLY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING LESS DOMINANT OVER THE AREA.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS
THE CURRENT RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND WE ARE INFLUENCED BY AN
APPROACHING TROUGH. WPC HAS PLACED THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR DAY 5 (MONDAY).
CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF ENSEMBLES SHOWS SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH/SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
FOOTPRINT. GEFS DOMINANT CLUSTER 1 SHOWS A DEEPER TROUGH WITH THE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH AS COMPARED TO THE ENS DOMINANT CLUSTER
2 WITH A WEAKER TROUGH AND HIGHEST PRECIPITATION AXIS FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST. ANOMALOUS DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH PWATS HIGHLY LIKELY TO BE ABOVE 2" AND
PROBABLY CLOSER TO 2.1-2.2". USING SLIDELL SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY,
THIS IS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE (1.96") AND APPROACHING THE MAX OF
2.29" FOR MID JUNE. PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL HIGHLY DEPEND ON
WHERE THE BOUNDARY SETS UP AND STALLS OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS AS A MORE REFINED PICTURE BECOMES
EVIDENT.
BEACH FORECAST - THE RIP CURRENT RISK HAS NOW INCREASED TO MODERATE
AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE HAVE DOMINANT
ONSHORE FLOW. NWPS SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS
WITHIN AND ALONG THE COASTLINES OF THE GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RCMOS SHOWS RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASING TO HIGH FOR OUR BEACHES
TUESDAY WITH THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. SS/97
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS FOR THE MOST PART ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. PATCHY FOG, LOCALLY DENSE, IS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
TONIGHT WHICH COULD LEAD TO REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT CATEGORY. VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY RETURNS TO ALL LOCATIONS AFTER DAYBREAK WITH ANY
FOG QUICKLY ERODING AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
INLAND FRIDAY AND SOUTHERLY NEAR THE COAST WITH THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A
DIURNAL PATTERN DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT NIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW DURING THE DAY. MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FOR THE EARLY TO
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR AND
AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 93 75 93 / 0 20 0 20
PENSACOLA 76 92 78 92 / 0 10 0 20
DESTIN 78 89 79 90 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 72 95 74 95 / 10 10 10 30
WAYNESBORO 72 94 74 94 / 0 10 10 20
CAMDEN 72 93 74 93 / 0 0 10 40
CRESTVIEW 71 96 74 96 / 0 20 0 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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