098
FXUS64 KMOB 242317
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
617 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 614 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
- A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
A MUCH DRIER AND MORE FALL-LIKE AIR MASS WILL BE FILTERING INTO THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS IS THANKS TO A STRONG TROUGH AND
DEEPENING LOW OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGING DOWN A DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE. LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY
HAS KEPT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN
ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, WITH OTHER AREAS SEEING CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING
SEA BREEZE, MAINLY OVER COASTAL ALABAMA. HAVE INCLUDED 20-30% POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER ADDS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING INSTABILITY AND RESULTANT COVERAGE. LIGHTNING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED DUE TO A STOUT SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WELL BELOW THE
FREEZING LEVEL LIMITING CONVECTIVE DEPTH, BUT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
A SECONDARY BACKDOOR COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR DAMMING
EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL USHER IN OUR COOL/DRY AIR MASS LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
60S AND EVEN INTO THE 50S FOR EASTERN AREAS. AS A RESULT, TONIGHT
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AWAY FROM
THE COAST. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S (THIS IS STILL NEAR NORMAL). FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHTS
WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S AND EVEN SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
HIGHS GETTING BACK TO AROUND 90 BY MONDAY.
THE DRY AIR WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH NEAR
ZERO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL
THEN START TO KICK IN BY MIDWEEK ALONG WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHEASTERLY.
AT THE BEACHES, RIP CURRENT RISK HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO MODERATE FOR
TODAY, CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURF HEIGHTS AROUND 2-3
FEET. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. JGC/98
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WHAT IS ON RADAR NOW WITH A FEW VICINITY SHRA SOUTH OF
KPNS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH THIS EVENING AND DISSIPATE.
OTHERWISE, MAIN FOCUS WAS ON A STEADY INCREASE IN EASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS COASTAL TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW BUT EXPECTING
VFR TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS TO MODERATE TONIGHT AT AROUND
15-20 KNOTS BEFORE WEAKENING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN FOLLOWS FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING AT NIGHT, BECOMING MOSTLY ONSHORE EACH
DAY. A MORE PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. JGC/98
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 67 86 64 87 / 10 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 68 85 68 86 / 20 0 0 0
DESTIN 69 84 69 85 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 62 84 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 64 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 62 83 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 64 84 61 87 / 10 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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