661
FXUS64 KMOB 051922
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
122 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
- STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
TODAY. WINDS WILL PICK UP ONCE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS IN PLACE FOR OUR FLORIDA BEACHES ON
FRIDAY.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN IN THE COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH A MEAN UPPER TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE EAST COAST INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A REINFORCING
FRONT MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT IN
RESPONSE. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT.
IN THE COMING WEEK, AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST A
BIT EARLY IN THE WEEK, AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SW
CONUS/MEXICO BORDER MOVES EAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS SOUTH
TO OVER THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, RETURNING
ONSHORE FLOW TO THE AREA. MOISTURE LEVELS CREEP UP INTO MID WEEK,
REACHING LEVELS GENERALLY IN THE 1.2"-1.4" RANGE BY WEDNESDAY AS
THE SW-ERN CONUS SYSTEM, NOW AN OPEN WAVE, PASSES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST IN A NOW MODEST UPPER RIDGE. A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN WITH A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DAMPENS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED AT MOST, WITH MOISTURE LEVELS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
HEAVIER RAINS. ALSO, WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE, STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WITH THE MODEST ONSHORE FLOW IN THE COMING WEEK, SEA FOG BECOMES A
PROBLEM, WATER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S INTO THE LOW 60S
SOUTH MOBILE BAY STRETCH WEST ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. WATER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN MOBILE BAY. WITH WARM
FLOW OFF THE GULF OVER THESE COOL WATERS, SEA FOG LOOKS LIKELY
EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK.
TAKING A CLOSER LOOK AT TEMPERATURES, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S FRIDAY DROP INTO THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR SATURDAY.
FROM THERE, HIGH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE INTO THE 70S, TOPPING OUT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, LOW 70S ALONG THE
COAST. LOOKING AT LOW TEMPERATURES LOW TO MID 30S TONIGHT SEE AN
UPTICK TO UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE
REINFORCING FRONT DROPS TEMPS BACK DOWN INTO THE AROUND 30 TO MID
30S SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM THERE, LOW TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE WEEK,
TOPPING OUT IN THIS FORECAST, TO MID TO UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE CURRENT OFFSHORE FLOW SHIFTS TO WESTERLY FRIDAY, CREATING A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON AREA BEACHES. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO
OFFSHORE FOR THE WEEKEND, SHIFTING THE RIP RISK BACK TO LOW. EVEN
WITH A SHIFT IN WINDS TO ONSHORE IN THE COMING WEEK, WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT ENOUGH, EVEN WITH AN INCREASING TIDAL RANGE, TO LIMIT ONSHORE
SWELL AND KEEP A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THE COMING WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND
AROUND 15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND TURN WESTERLY THROUGH TOMORROW. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 117 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL EASE SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING A MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY FLOW FOR
FRIDAY. WINDS TURN BACK TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW BY SATURDAY AND WEAKEN.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 35 69 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 37 65 44 61 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 40 64 44 60 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 31 67 37 58 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 32 67 37 58 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 30 65 36 56 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 29 67 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
GMZ650-655-670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ670-675.
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