985
FXUS64 KMOB 031114
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
514 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
- STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY LATE IN
THE WEEK AS WELL.
- A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL OCCUR MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE
GULF, AND POSSIBLY LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SYSTEMS LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF A LARGE
POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS
BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH PROGRESSES INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE LARGE UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC GOING INTO SATURDAY, A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE FORECAST AREA, THEN A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH JUST SOME EMBEDDED STORMS EXPECTED OVER THE MARINE AREA AND
NEAR THE COAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL THE WAY THROUGH TUESDAY, DESPITE THE WEAK
FRONT MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LOOKS
TOO LIMITED TO CONSIDER POPS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 65-70, A CHANGE FROM THE COOL/COLD
TEMPERATURES OF THE PAST WEEK OR SO. HIGHS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
TREND TO AROUND 50, THEN TREND WARMER TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
BY SUNDAY WITH SIMILAR VALUES CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE 40S TO MID 50S THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S. OVERNIGHT LOWS MODERATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT, BY
WHICH TIME LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50. A LOW RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TUESDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE RISK TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALABAMA BEACHES, THOUGH A MODERATE RISK
CONTINUES FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES. A LOW RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOLLOWS FOR THURSDAY, THEN FOR FRIDAY A LOW RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS FOR ALABAMA BEACHES CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES WILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK. /29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 512 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY BRINGING REDUCED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY UNDERNEATH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT
OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON SUSTAINED 10 TO
15 KNOTS GUSTING TO 20 KNOTS. WINDS RELAX SOME THIS EVENING TO
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1046 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT THEN SWITCHES TO A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DIMINISH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WELL OFFSHORE, THEN FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE TAPERING OFF INTO THURSDAY EVENING. A MODERATE TO STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY, SWITCHES TO THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT THEN DIMINISHES ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 67 52 61 32 / 0 80 50 0
PENSACOLA 66 56 62 34 / 0 80 80 0
DESTIN 65 56 64 34 / 0 70 90 10
EVERGREEN 68 47 57 28 / 0 90 60 0
WAYNESBORO 67 44 54 28 / 30 90 20 0
CAMDEN 66 46 54 27 / 20 90 40 0
CRESTVIEW 67 49 62 30 / 0 80 90 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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