867
FXUS64 KMOB 011639
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1139 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1138 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEEK,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED FLOODING
FROM INTENSE RAINFALL RATES THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. A MAINLY
MORNING WATERSPOUT RISK WILL ALSO CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS
MARINE AREAS.
- HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES MAINLY 103 TO 107 THROUGH REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE HEAT INDICES 108 TO 110. HEAT RELATED
PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
01.12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW A WELL DEFINED AND LARGE LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. THE WESTWARD
AND EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN OK TO THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY SLOT ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE FROM OKLAHOMA TO ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. THERE IS A GRADIENT OF PRECIPITABLE WATERS
(PWAT'S) ALIGNED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRIER VALUES RANGING
AROUND 1.70" OVER THE INTERIOR WHILE A BELT OF HIGHER MOISTURE
(2.00") HUGS THE COASTAL ZONES. CONSIDERING MOISTURE, THE ONSET OF
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY AND COASTAL SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY AS A FOCUS,
ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BETTER PROBABILITIES ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEW AUGUSTA MS TO CRESTVIEW FL. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE HIGH RESOLUTION CAM'S AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES.
THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
OVERACHIEVING STORM TO PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. A RAPID DIURNAL DECREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR
SET UP FOLLOWS FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS CHANGE LITTLE TONIGHT MAINLY IN
THE MID 70'S. HIGHS 92 TO 97 NORTH OF I-10 TO UPPER 80'S/LOWER
90'S COAST WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST HEAT INDICES WEDNESDAY RANGE 103 TO
107. A FEW AREAS MAY APPROACH 108 TO 110, BUT COVERAGE AT THIS
TIME IS NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. THIS MAY CHANGE
ON LATER SHIFTS.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SEES A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE
CENTER TO OUR NORTH SLIPS EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. ON
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, A TAP OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
(HIGHER PWAT'S INCREASING 2.1 TO 2.3") SPREADS WESTWARD OVER THE
AREA AND THE COMBINATION OF WEAK IMPULSES RIDING WEST OVER THE
LOCAL AREA AND ANY WEAKLY REFLECTED SURFACE BOUNDARIES IN THE
MESOSCALE SETS THE STAGE FOR LIKELY POP CHANCES BOTH DAYS. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER LAND ZONES
AND THE MORNING HOURS COASTAL/MARINE AREAS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS OR EVEN PERHAPS ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS RESULTING IN MAINLY NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING. SOMETHING
FORECASTERS WILL KEEP AN EYE ON. WITH THE EXPECTATION OF
THICKENING CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN CHANCES, HIGHS TREND LOWER,
ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. GRIDDED HIGHS REFLECT 90-93 FOR HIGHEST
NUMBERS BUT NOTE THIS MAY BE A CATEGORY OR TWO TOO HIGH WITH SOME
AREAS POSSIBLY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE LOWER 80'S SOME AREAS. ALL
DEPENDS ON THE TIMING/ONSET/DURATION OF RAINS.
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEST RAIN CHANCES
EXPECTED EACH DAY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90'S AND LOWS LOWER/MID
70'S. HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR HEAT INDICES 108
TO 111. /10
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24 HRS. AFTERNOON CUMULUS WITH BASES
GENERALLY 3 TO 6 KFT EXPECTED. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON MOSTLY LIGHT AND
TAKING ON MORE OF SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT TERMINALS. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF ISOLATED PERHAPS SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING OVER
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT THESE APPEAR
TO BE MORE IN VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS THAN PREVAILING. EXPECT
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WITH THE PASSAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA. /10
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2026
AWAY FROM INFLUENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
RESULTS IN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. SEAS AROUND A
FOOT. SHOWERS AND STORMS TREND HIGHER IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BECOMING MORE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS. MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 34
KNOTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY, LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES/SEAS, AND
WATERSPOUTS. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 93 74 92 / 10 30 20 60
PENSACOLA 77 92 77 90 / 0 20 30 70
DESTIN 78 91 78 89 / 0 10 30 70
EVERGREEN 73 97 73 95 / 10 10 20 40
WAYNESBORO 73 97 74 97 / 0 10 10 30
CAMDEN 74 97 74 96 / 0 10 10 20
CRESTVIEW 73 95 73 92 / 10 10 10 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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