409
FXUS64 KMOB 240541
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1241 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
LOCAL AREA BEACHES.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE WEST OF THE ALABAMA
RIVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
A LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS BECOMES
ORIENTED MOSTLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN STATES TO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY, THEN EVOLVES INTO A POSITIVELY TILTED SYSTEM
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS ON SUNDAY. THE UPPER TROF
PATTERN CHANGES AGAIN AS A VIGOROUS SYSTEM EJECTS OFF ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN
RESPONSE TO THIS, A SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH BRINGS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT POPS INCREASING TO PREDOMINATELY
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ON SATURDAY. ONE CONCERN TO MONITOR ON
SUBSEQUENT UPDATES IS THAT THE LATEST CAMS INDICATE THAT AN MCS
WILL FORM UPSTREAM ON FRIDAY AND WEAKEN WHILE PROGRESSING INTO
ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOULD
THIS PLAY OUT, HIGHER POPS WILL BECOME NECESSARY FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT
FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. IN ADDITION,
SHOULD THE MCS MAINTAIN SUFFICIENT STRENGTH WHILE MOVING INTO THE
AREA, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS, AND A FEW SEVERE
STORMS COULD OCCUR AS WELL. THIS IS CONDITIONAL AT THIS POINT, AND
SPC HAS THIS HANDLED WELL WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE WESTERN
FOURTH OF THE AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERS CLOSE TO THIS POSITION THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ON MONDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ADVANCES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HAVE
CONTINUED WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY THEN FOR MONDAY
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER INLAND AREAS. A BROAD
UPPER TROF DEVELOPS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN STATES GOING INTO
MIDWEEK THEN BECOMES ORIENTED MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR EASTERN
STATES ON THURSDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITHIN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION, AND YET
ANOTHER SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL OFF TO THE NORTH LOOKS TO BRING
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR NOW. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY THEN TRENDS TO A LOW RISK FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL SEE TEMPORARY DROPS TO IFR LEVELS AS FOG
DEVELOPS TOWARDS SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH AN APPROACHING MESOSCALE COMPLEX APPROACHING THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS IN HEAVY RAIN.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT THU APR 23 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN
BECOMES SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 65 83 65 84 / 20 60 20 30
PENSACOLA 68 80 67 80 / 20 50 30 30
DESTIN 68 79 68 80 / 10 50 30 30
EVERGREEN 60 84 60 86 / 20 80 30 30
WAYNESBORO 63 83 63 85 / 40 80 20 30
CAMDEN 62 81 61 84 / 40 80 30 30
CRESTVIEW 61 84 62 86 / 10 60 30 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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