874
FXUS64 KMOB 051736
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1236 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- THE RISK FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS INCREASES MIDWEEK, WITH A
MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BEACHES THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
THROUGH FRIDAY, A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING
OVER/BY THE SOUTHEAST SHIFT AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST SOUTHWARD, ALLOWING THE ENERGY TO MORE DIRECTLY AFFECT THE
FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PASSES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT PASSES FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST, BRINGING
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA
AS A FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
STALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES OFF. ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY ELEVATION SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AS MORE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES.
LOOKING AT ANY ISSUES, THE MOST CONCERNING PERIOD IS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. A BAND OF BETTER INSTABILITY (MLCAPES RISING INTO THE 2000-
2500J/KG RANGE) STRETCHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, AND WITH
THE LATEST GUIDANCE JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY. ADD IN
EBWD SHEAR AROUND 61 KTS, DCAPES IN THE 900-1100J/KG RANGE, SOME
MODELS ADVERTISING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0C OR A BIT MORE,
AND 0-1KM HELICITIES IN THE 100-150M^2/S^2 RANGE, STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE BEST COMBINATION OF INGREDIENTS ARE
UNCOMFORTABLY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH AN SPC
SLIGHT RISK JUST TOUCHING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES FOR
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MARGINAL TO AROUND I-65. ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE (DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES). THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES INTO
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THOUGH THE
INGREDIENTS ARE A BIT LESS IN MAGNITUDE AND ORGANIZATION. ON A
BETTER NOTE, THE STEADY STREAM OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO HELP
WITH THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE OVERRUNNING
RAIN THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
WEDNESDAY DROP EACH DAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY FRIDAY DUE TO THE
RAIN AND A BIT COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES SEE AN
UPTICK FROM THE MID 60S TONIGHT TO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE COMING FRONT, THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW
60S FRIDAY NIGHT (A BIT WARMER ALONG THE COAST EACH NIGHT).
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK, A DE-EVOLVING UPPER LOW PASSES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ONSHORE FLOW
QUICKLY RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE GOOD MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST TO JUST SOUTH OF I-20 (PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES IN THE 1.5" TO
1.9" RANGE). ANOTHER ROUND OF SURFACED BASED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SATURDAY. INGREDIENTS FOR ANY ROWDY STORMS
ARE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS WEEK, BUT NOT GONE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES EARLY IN THE
COMING WEEK, WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY IN RESPONSE. TEMPERATURES START THE WEEKEND A BIT BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS, THEN RISE TO A BIT ABOVE BY SUNDAY, THEN REMAIN
THERE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, A LOW RISK
RISES TO A MODERATE, OCCASIONALLY HIGH, WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS ONSHORE SWELL INCREASES AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE COAST COMBINES WITH A LARGE TIDAL RANGE THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THE RIP RISK DECREASES THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW
AND SWELL DECREASES, ALONG WITH DECREASING TIDAL CYCLE.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY, BUT LIGHTEN TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS (A BIT MORE ALONG
THE COAST). MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IF PATCHES OF FOG FORM. AFTER SUNRISE, UPPER END MVFR TO
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY,
STALLING ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM
BRINGS LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW BACK TO THE AREA FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 65 83 70 81 / 0 20 30 80
PENSACOLA 69 81 73 81 / 0 10 10 60
DESTIN 69 81 72 80 / 0 0 10 50
EVERGREEN 60 86 66 81 / 0 20 40 90
WAYNESBORO 63 83 66 78 / 0 60 70 80
CAMDEN 62 86 66 78 / 0 40 70 90
CRESTVIEW 62 86 67 84 / 0 10 10 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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