558
FXUS64 KMOB 071737
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1237 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
- HURRICANE/STORM SURGE WATCHES IN EFFECT.
- TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON LATE FRIDAY.
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA
FROM ISAIAS INCLUDING HIGH WINDS, HIGH SURF, RIP CURRENTS, STORM
SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
NEAR TERM WEATHER IS QUITE BENIGN WITH THE AREA IN BETWEEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SOUTHWEST TO ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND A QUASI-STAIONARY
FRONT DRAPED EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR IS IN PLACE WITH PWAT'S ~ 1.0 TO 1.3" ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS EQUATES TO A RAIN-FREE PATTERN HOLDING THROUGH
THURSDAY.
THE NOT SO GOOD NEWS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK IS
STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE
SOUTHWEST GULF WHERE WIND SHEAR IS LIGHT. THE STRUCTURE OF THE LOW
AND MID LEVEL CENTERS OF THE STORM APPEAR TO BE COMING INTO
BETTER ALIGNMENT WHICH MAY PORTEND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. CONSIDERING THE FORECAST
TRACK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE IMPACTS
SOMEWHERE OVER THE ALABAMA/NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AM, NHC ISSUED HURRICANE/STORM SURGE
WATCHES OVER OUR ENTIRE STRETCH OF THE COAST ON THE 07.15Z
ADVISORY.
ALTHOUGH THE TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF ISAIAS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
ALABAMA OR NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE, IT'S BEST TO NOT FOCUS ON SAID
TRACK AS HIGH IMPACTS ARE LIKELY TO BE FELT WELL AWAY FROM WHERE
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THESE IMPACTS INCLUDE HIGH WINDS, HEAVY
RAINS WHICH MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A FLOOD WATCH, LIFE-
THREATENING SURF, COASTAL FLOODING FROM SURGE, AND DANGEROUS TO
POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF TORNADOES
ALONG AND EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM NWS MOBILE AND FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER ON ISAIAS.
NEXT WEEK LOOKS MORE OCTOBER LIKE, DRY, AS AN UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH ALONG WITH A DRIER DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENT
SETUP. /10
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
A FEW TO SCATTERED CU AT 3 TO 5 KFT EMBEDDED IN AN ESTABLISHED
EAST NORTHEAST FLOW, THAT WILL SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS,
EXPECTED NEXT 24HRS. /10
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS MOVES EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST
GULF TODAY AND BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND NORTHWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY
TO A HURRICANE THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS DETERIORATE AND SEAS BECOME VERY HIGH AT
THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK AS ISAIAS APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 66 85 65 82 / 0 0 20 80
PENSACOLA 70 84 69 80 / 0 10 50 100
DESTIN 70 84 70 81 / 0 10 50 100
EVERGREEN 60 87 61 83 / 0 0 20 80
WAYNESBORO 61 87 61 84 / 0 0 10 50
CAMDEN 58 87 59 84 / 0 0 10 80
CRESTVIEW 63 83 63 79 / 0 0 40 90
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALZ261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
STORM SURGE WATCH FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HURRICANE WATCH FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
STORM SURGE WATCH FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...HURRICANE WATCH FOR GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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