887
FXUS64 KMOB 170110
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
810 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 748 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO POSE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES OVER PORTIONS OF
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
- THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES ON SATURDAY. THIS
DANGER IS HIGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. IN ADDITION, A HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS RETURN TO AREA BEACHES FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 748 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PROGRESS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE ACROSS
THE HEAVILY DAMAGED AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. THESE
LOCATIONS HAVE COMPROMISED TREES LEANING OVER STRUCTURES, POWER
LINES, AND ROADWAYS. THESE TREES MAY SUCCUMB TO THE STRONG WIND
GUSTS ALONG WITH LARGE PILES OF DEBRIS THAT MAY BE BLOWN AROUND
WHICH MAY AGAIN BLOCK ROADWAYS AND LEAD TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS
ADDITIONAL POWER OUTAGES IN AREAS WHERE POWER WAS RECENTLY
RESTORED AND NEW ROAD CLOSURES. IN ADDITION, STRUCTURES MAY BE
HIT BY FALLING TREES IN LOCATIONS WHERE TREES ARE LEANING OVER
HOMES AND BUILDINGS. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS OR
DRIVING THIS TONIGHT ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS.
ELSEWHERE, OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVILY DAMAGED LOCATIONS, EXPECT STRONG
WIND GUSTS TO BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING LARGE BRANCHES AND A FEW
TREES. WHERE LARGE BRANCHES OR TREES FALL ACROSS POWER LINES,
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THESE WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD OUR MARINE AREAS THIS EVENING AS WELL
CREATING VERY HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR ANYONE VENTURING
OUT INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN
PORT THROUGH SATURDAY AS VERY STRONG WINDS AND LARGE SEAS ARE
ANTICIPATED. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL ALABAMA
AND NORTHWESTERN FLORIDA WATERS.
FINALLY, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING THREAT FOR WILDFIRES ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH RECEIVED LITTLE
RAIN FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS. THESE DRY CONDITIONS AND THE STRONG
WINDS WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FAST AND UNCONTROLLED
WILDFIRE SPREAD. PLEASE REFRAIN FROM BURNING TONIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN AREAS WHERE RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED. IT IS
ALSO STRONGLY ADVISED TO NOT BURN EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE RED FLAG
WARNING AREAS WHERE DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO EXIST. /JLH
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE, FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AT THIS TIME, MOVING ACROSS AND SOUTH OF LAND PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MARINE WATERS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN RESPONSE. A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT THIS TIME (PRECIPITABLE H20 LEVELS 1.5" ALONG THE COAST TO 1.1"
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA). THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT ANY RAINFALL TO NEAR COASTAL AND OPEN GULF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY OVER LAND AREAS,
EASTERLY OVER OPEN GULF WATERS, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH A STRONGER SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND BUILDING.
LOOKING AT IMPACTS FOR LAND AREAS, THE FIRST IS A WIND ADVISORY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS AROUND
15KT/17MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30KTS/29-35MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE STRONG WINDS AND SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE
THE RISK OF WILDFIRES THROUGH SATURDAY (MORE BELOW). FOR MARINE
IMPACTS, READ BELOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN FOR A NOSE-DIVE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON
DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME
REBOUNDING OCCURS MONDAY, AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD AND
NORTHERLY WINDS EASE. LOW TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT'S PASSAGE
DROP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40 TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH OF
I-10 TO THE COAST, REMAINING SO INTO THE COMING WEEK.
FOR TUESDAY ON, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES
TO BUILD. A NOR'EASTER DEVELOPING ON THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ITS EFFECTS, AND EVEN SHIFTS THE
RIDGE WEST OVER THE PLAINS AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO BACK ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA STATE LINE, CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWER TO RISE, WITH GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW BRINGING WEAK, BUT A BIT COOLER, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, AND A
DRY AIRMASS HELPING WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, A LOW RISK IS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE WEEKEND, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RETURNS SUNDAY ON.
/16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THIS EVENING
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT THAT SHOULD BE
SHORT-LIVED. MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. /JLH
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A LIGHT, DIURNALLY VARIABLE, FLOW TODAY QUICKLY BECOMES STRONG TO
VERY STRONG NORTHERLY TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK WILL SHIFT
WINDS TO EASTERLY, WHILST REMAINING STRONG, ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN
GULF WATERS. WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE FORCE, ALONG WITH SOME
AREAS SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO GALES, A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, TAPERING TO
JUST OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY AS THE STRONGER WINDS SHIFT
SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AFTER THE GALES GO
DOWN, LASTING INTO THE COMING WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN GULF
WATERS. /16
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, DRY FUELS, AND SEVERE DROUGHT OVER AREAS
WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL CREATE AN INCREASED RISK OF
WILDFIRES OVER THESE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. ALSO, ANY AREAS WITH DEBRIS STILL ON THE
GROUND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALABAMA, WILL BE AT ADDED RISK. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR OUR MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES. REGARDLESS, ALL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF WILDFIRES THIS WEEKEND. /16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 53 70 50 71 / 10 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 55 72 54 71 / 20 0 0 0
DESTIN 58 72 55 70 / 20 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 50 69 47 70 / 10 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 49 69 45 70 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN 49 67 46 68 / 10 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 54 70 50 68 / 20 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ054>060-261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ078-079.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ067-075-
076-078-079.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
GMZ630>636.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ650-655.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ670-675.
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