295
FXUS64 KMOB 180846
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
346 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOOD
SITUATION EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A HIGH RISK FOR FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, COASTAL ALABAMA, AND
THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING
IS LIKELY AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
- NUMEROUS MARINE HAZARDS EXIST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE AROUND MOBILE BAY TODAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY WITH A RISK OF A
FEW TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
A MULTI-HAZARD HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
..FLOODING THREAT
A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS AND LIFT THREATENING FLOOD EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
INTO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
AND PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS WILL BE ALONG A CONVERGENCE
AXIS DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. A 50KT LOW LEVEL
JET HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS AXIS AND HAS BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT
TIMES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 6
INCHES ACROSS A WIDE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST
BY MID MORNING WITH THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALIGNING
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE A STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT SHOULD
EXIST. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FAVOR BACKBUILDING AND
TRAINING OF CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUALLY ADVECTS AN UNSTABLE AND
VERY MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY PERSIST
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND IT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEED 3 INCHES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (LATEST HREF) SUGGESTS THAT AS
MUCH AS 10 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 15
INCHES POSSIBLE. IF THIS SETUP MATERIALIZES OVER THIS AREA THAT
REMAINS QUITE SATURATED, CONSIDERABLE TO POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
FLOODING MAY BE REALIZED. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING
SITUATION AND EVERYONE LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
THIS THREAT SERIOUSLY AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING IS ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.
..SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI,
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TODAY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ALONG THE AXIS OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL TROPICAL AIRMASS WHICH SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CORRIDOR
OF MORNING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF LOW-TOPPED MINI SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES. THIS THREAT SHOULD FIRST
MATERIALIZE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO COASTAL ALABAMA
THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY.
..REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH DAYS. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF
WHEREVER THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND POSE THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY RENEWED FLASH FLOODING. THIS SET UP
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN STORM
COVERAGE. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN TEMPERED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH COVERAGE
OF STORMS, BUT INCREASE BACK INTO THE 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED HEAT
INDICES DURING THIS PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL OVER THE COMING DAYS AS HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK. /JLH
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 746 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
TROPICAL STORM AUTHOR IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR GALVESTON BAY
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY SHEARED
WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMOVED WELL TO THE EAST AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH HAS DETACHED FROM
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY
SOON BEGIN TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THERE APPEARS TO
BE A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE WHERE SURFACE WINDS BACK SOUTHEASTERLY. IN
ADDITION, NOTABLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST
SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER. AS THIS TRANSITION
CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WE ARE EXPECTING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA LATER THIS
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL
ALSO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE
LATEST VAD PROFILE FROM KHDC IS CURRENTLY SHOWING 30-40KTS BETWEEN
1-2KM AND NEAR SURFACE WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
AT BUOYS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. THIS GIVES US A
REASONABLE IDEA REGARDING THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, COASTAL
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
70S. THIS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS SUPPORTING A CONTINUED
MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM
1500-2500J/KG. THE LATEST 00Z SOUNDING FROM LIX SHOWS THIS WELL
WITH THE GREATEST LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY CONFINED WITHIN THE
LOWEST 3KM. THE SOUNDING IS VERY MOIST IN GENERAL WITH PRECIP
WATER AMOUNTS NEAR 2.3".
AS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, EXPECT THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET NOW JUST OFFSHORE OF
LOUISIANA TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THEN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. ENHANCED LIFT
ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND TO THE EAST OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A FOCUS FOR EXTREME RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL TORNADOES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LIFTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE WHERE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP AND LATCH ON TO THE
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY. HERE, HODOGRAPHS
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LONG AND CURVED IN THE LOWEST 3KM AND
WHERE 0-3KM CAPE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 150-200J/KG, WHICH SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND RISK FOR A FEW
TORNADOES. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, BUT THIS MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF A FACTOR CONSIDERING
THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW AND TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND POTENTIAL TRAINING. IN ANY AREA WHERE THIS OCCURS,
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE
IS STILL INDICATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 4-8
INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THE LATEST 00Z HRRR NOW HAS
SWATHS OF 10-15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE LATER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF THIS
UPWARD TREND CONTINUES IN THE OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION/HI-RES
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IF SO, WE WILL NEED TO UP OUR STORM TOTALS WITH
THE LATE EVENING FORECAST. THIS WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AND
UPDATES PROVIDED AS NECESSARY. /JLH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
SOLID SHIELD OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS IS SPREADING NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA AND WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST THRU THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. VSBY OK THE NEXT FEW HOURS BUT
VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO LIFR PERHAPS INSTANCES OF VLIFR LOOK TO BE
LIKELY AS WE GO INTO THE DAY THURSDAY ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIEST
RAIN BANDS SET UP. CIGS POTENTIALLY VARIABLE, HOVERING BETWEEN
MVFR/TO IFR CATEGORIES IN +RA. ADDITIONAL HAZARDS TO
APPROACHES/DEPARTURES ARE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES
POTENTIALLY TO 25 TO 30 KTS THURSDAY AS WELL. /10
MARINE
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS RAMPING UP TO 7 TO 9 FEET TODAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA UNTIL 6
AM FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY, WITH A PRIMARILY LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 84 77 90 75 / 100 80 60 70
PENSACOLA 85 80 90 78 / 100 80 60 50
DESTIN 85 80 89 78 / 90 70 60 40
EVERGREEN 80 74 87 73 / 100 100 90 60
WAYNESBORO 81 75 88 73 / 100 80 90 60
CAMDEN 79 72 84 71 / 100 90 100 50
CRESTVIEW 82 76 89 74 / 100 90 70 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ630>632-634-
650-655-670-675.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page