560
FXUS64 KMOB 102326
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
626 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 RANGE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
108-110.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY, INCREASING TO NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING, IS POSSIBLE.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL RETURN FOR ALL AREA
BEACHES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A RATHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER RIDGE LINGERS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS AROUND
1.8-2.0 INCHES), ALONG WITH A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THANKS
TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING, A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONSIST OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER OUR
MARINE ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST, SCATTERED PULSE-TYPE STORMS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WHICH
WILL SPREAD INLAND VIA OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS, AND ACTIVITY
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING DURING THE EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. AS WE TYPICALLY SEE WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN,
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES RISING TO AROUND 102-107 DEGREES (UP
TO 108-110 IN A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS). LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE AS WE GET TO THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
TIMEFRAME. LOOKING ALOFT, A POSITIVELY-TILTED LONGWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. AS IT DOES SO,
A SHORTWAVE BREAKS OFF FROM THIS TROUGH, FORMS INTO A CUTOFF LOW
OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY, AND SLOWLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONALLY AT THE SURFACE, AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE APPALACHIANS, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
SOUTHWARD, LIKELY STALLING SOMEWHERE NEAR OR OVER OUR LOCAL AREA AS
WE GET INTO MONDAY. PWATS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SURGE TO
AROUND 2.1-2.3 INCHES (CLIMOTOLOGICALLY-SPEAKING, THAT'S
GENERALLY AROUND THE 90TH-95TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR),
AND WITH PLENTY OF FORCING DUE TO THE CUTOFF LOW ALOFT AND THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE, MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT FOR THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER LOW AT THIS TIME,
ALTHOUGH I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KNOTS, FAVORING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS,
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD DURING THIS ACTIVE PERIOD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL.
AS STATED BEFORE, PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA, ALLOWING FOR STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL-
PRODUCERS. FACTORING IN WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW MOVING PARALLEL TO THE
STALLING SURFACE BOUNDARY, ALONG WITH DEEP SHEAR VALUES DROPPING TO
10 KNOTS OR LESS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY, STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SLOW-
MOVING AND COULD POTENTIALLY TRAIN AND IMPACT THE SAME AREAS. NBM
95TH PERCENTILES ARE ALREADY SUGGESTING RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 3-5
INCHES ALONG THE COAST. IF TRAINING STORMS ARE ABLE TO SET UP
ACROSS THE AREA, THEN THESE VALUES MAY BECOME REALIZED AND A
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE. WE WILL MONITOR
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, UPPER RIDGING
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE LOCAL AREA, ALLOWING FOR OUR TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS TO RETURN ONCE
AGAIN. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE STARTING
TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RCMOS PROBABILITIES
SUGGEST THAT ALABAMA BEACHES SHOULD DROP TO A LOW RISK BY MONDAY,
WHILE A MODERATE RISK CONTINUES FOR OUR FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH
TUESDAY. /96
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
FORECAST IS THE BASIC AFTERNOON ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERAL
VFR/LOCAL LOW END MVFR/IFR IN THE HEAVIEST THUNDERSTORMS. ACTIVITY
WILL REDEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH GENERAL VFR AND LOCAL DROPS TO MID/UPPER
MVFR LEVELS IN THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SEABREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST AND MOVES
INLAND. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED, WITH LIMITED IMPACTS
TO OPERATIONS. WINDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE 10
KNOTS OR LESS.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY, BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 93 76 92 / 10 40 30 70
PENSACOLA 80 93 79 93 / 10 30 20 60
DESTIN 81 92 80 91 / 10 30 20 50
EVERGREEN 74 95 74 92 / 10 30 10 70
WAYNESBORO 75 96 75 93 / 10 20 10 70
CAMDEN 74 93 74 91 / 10 10 20 70
CRESTVIEW 74 95 74 94 / 10 40 20 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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