414
FXUS64 KMOB 142017
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
317 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
- HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-107 ARE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY AS
SURF HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FEET.
- MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE OPEN GULF FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
ITS HOLD OVER OUR LOCAL AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS IT REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE,
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION INDICATE THAT A WEAK BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO BE DRAPED ACROSS OUR AREA, STRETCHING FROM OUR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INTO OUR COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SUBTLE BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE SEPARATING MID TO UPPER 60
DEWPOINTS TO ITS NORTH FROM LOW TO MID 70 DEWPOINTS TO ITS SOUTH.
ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE ALOFT, ALONG WITH THE DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST, WILL HELP TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES
LOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY, STILL CANNOT RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A STORM OR TWO,
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS
TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT
INDICES GENERALLY AROUND 100-107 DEGREES.
BY THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, A RATHER INTERESTING
UPPER FLOW PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA. AN INVERTED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, JUST
OFF THE NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS UPPER FEATURE WILL THEN
PUSH SOUTHWESTWARD, CROSSING FLORIDA ON THURSDAY, AND WILL ENTER THE
NORTHEAST GULF ON FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
RIDGE WILL START TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD, PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY FRIDAY. THE STRONG GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL ALLOW FOR A STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW PATTERN TO BECOME
PREVALENT ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TO FILTER INTO
THE AREA FROM THE APPALACHIANS (THANKS TO COLD AIR DAMMING
PROCESSES). IN FACT, DEW POINTS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR OUR INTERIOR COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM (UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S), OUR
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MANY AREAS
NORTH OF I-10. THE MAIN HAZARDS TO WATCH OUT FOR DURING THIS TIME
WILL BE AT OUR BEACHES. AS THIS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN, STRONG
EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL HELP TO INCREASE SURF HEIGHTS
AT OUR LOCAL BEACHES TO AROUND 4-5 FEET WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ANY FURTHER INCREASE TO THESE HEIGHTS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A HIGH
SURF ADVISORY FOR THE COAST. REGARDLESS, RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
ARE URGED TO STAY OUT OF THE GULF WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, AS A
HIGH RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
ALL LOCAL BEACHES.
UNFORTUNATELY OUR INITIAL SMALL TASTE OF FALL LOOKS TO BE RATHER
SHORT-LIVED AS MOISTURE VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES QUICKLY INCREASE FOR
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING TO OUR WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, CAUSING OUR UPPER WINDS TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHEASTERLY. WITH DEEP MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED IN FROM THE GULF,
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE LATEST 12Z RUN FROM THE EURO AND ITS ENSEMBLES HINT AT THE
POSSIBLITY THAT THE UPPER LOW MAY LINGER JUST TO OUR EAST, WHICH
WOULD LEAN TOWARDS A BIT OF A DRIER SCENARIO. ALTHOUGH RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE WETTER SOLUTION, WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS
OVER THE COMING DAYS AND WILL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY. /96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
A LIGHT DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. A
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, GRADUALLY RELAXING INTO THE WEEKEND. 1 FOOT SEAS PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY TO 4 TO 7 FEET.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MID WEEK. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 94 75 91 / 0 10 10 10
PENSACOLA 77 93 77 91 / 0 20 10 0
DESTIN 77 92 77 91 / 0 20 10 0
EVERGREEN 72 97 73 91 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 72 98 73 94 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 72 97 74 93 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 72 94 73 90 / 0 10 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page