814
FXUS64 KMOB 281114
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
514 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 513 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
- STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
- LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY WINDS COULD RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER AND WILL BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROF
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES ON SATURDAY THEN MOVES OFF
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW MEANWHILE LIFTS FROM THE PLAINS TO ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES AND BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIMITED
TO PRECLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SUNDAY WHICH TAPER TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROF ADVANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL
STATES ON MONDAY AND CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON
TUESDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF IN RESPONSE THEN LIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY ALSO LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM, BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY WHICH INCREASE TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT. POPS TAPER OFF TO DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO TUESDAY EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS RETURN FOR THURSDAY
AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST, THEN HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 WELL INLAND TO THE MID 60S NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 60 WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE
COAST, THEN PROGRESSIVELY COOLER HIGHS FOLLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY BY
WHICH TIME HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 50S WELL INLAND TO NEAR 60
CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE A TAD WARMER. LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER
40S AT THE COAST, THEN LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 40S
WELL INLAND TO THE MID 50S AT THE COAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 50 AT THE COAST WITH
A BIT WARMER VALUES FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER
AND RANGE FROM AROUND 30 WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 30S AT THE
COAST, THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 30S WELL
INLAND TO THE MID 40S AT THE COAST. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, THEN A MODERATE RISK FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT AROUND 5 TO
10 KNOTS, TURNING NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING AND EAST-NORTHEAST
TONIGHT REMAINING AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY THEN WINDS
BECOME NORTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS UNTIL 15Z
SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR MOBILE BAY AND
THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AN EASTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS ON MONDAY THEN STRENGTHENS AND SWITCHES TO THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 25% ON FRIDAY
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, POTENTIALLY 20-25% OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WHILE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SATURDAY, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20-25%
ARE ANTICIPATED MAINLY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA. 20 FT WIND SPEED VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 15 MPH BOTH DAYS, AND THE SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL
VALUES WILL BE LOW OR LESS WHICH WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A RED
FLAG WARNING OR FIRE WEATHER WATCH. OUT OF CAUTION, WILL CONTINUE
TO MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR FRIDAY AS
IT WAS ALREADY IN OUR KEY MESSAGES. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 57 40 65 53 / 0 0 0 20
PENSACOLA 57 44 64 58 / 0 0 0 20
DESTIN 59 44 65 56 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 56 33 63 46 / 0 0 0 20
WAYNESBORO 54 33 60 46 / 0 0 0 50
CAMDEN 52 33 59 45 / 0 0 0 30
CRESTVIEW 57 34 64 48 / 0 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page