461
FXUS64 KMOB 251815
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
115 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A FEW MAY BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
EARLIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AFTER
STICKING AROUND A LITTLE LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN THE WAKE
OF THIS ACTIVITY, CLOUDS PERSIST WHICH WILL LIMIT HEATING THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THIS MAKES REST OF THE AFTERNOON A BIT
UNCERTAIN, AS SOME MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THAT SAID, LATEST CAMS
HAVE HANDLED THE CURRENT ACTIVITY FAIRLY WELL AND LEAVE THE REST OF
THE DAY/NIGHT RELATIVELY DRY. THIS SEEMS TO MATCH THE PATTERN A BIT
BETTER, AS WE MAINTAIN SOME RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE CAVEAT TO
THIS WILL BE WHETHER STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ARE ABLE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND/OR GENERATE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IN ENOUGH TIME TO REACH OUR AREA. AT THIS POINT, THIS APPEARS
UNLIKELY FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, AND AGAIN, THE CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING AND KEEP US SOMEWHAT CAPPED TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO OUR NORTHWEST. AN MCS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION TONIGHT, AND THEN QUICKLY MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A
SHORTWAVES MOVES SOUTHEAST. BASED ON THE EXPECTED FLOW ALOFT, THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD MISS US TO OUR WEST, AS THE STEERING FLOWS TAKES IT
ON A MORE SOUTHERN TRAJECTORY WITH TIME. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE
REMAINS TO OUR WEST, KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHILE WE AREN'T
EXPECTING MUCH ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT, THE ACTIVITY WILL LEAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LINGERING OVER THE AREA. COMBINED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE, WHICH WILL REACH OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING, THIS
COULD AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY
SKIES WILL PERSIST, WHICH WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY, SO NOT EXPECTING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SUNDAY, WITH RIDGING
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPS
WILL CLEAR INTO THE UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S. FORTUNATELY, WE'LL MAINTAIN DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S WHICH WILL ALLEVIATE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WE HAD LAST
WEEK.
ANOTHER PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY, AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH MUCH OF THE CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS (WITHIN A LARGER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CANADA) ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL BRIEFLY
STALL ALONG OUR COASTAL COUNTIES, WHICH WILL KEEP SOME LINGERING
RAINFALL IN THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR
THE AREA BY THURSDAY, WITH UPPER RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUITE A BIT
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. /73
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY
LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. LOW
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS INLAND FROM THE COAST. PATCHY
FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
MVFR OR GREATER CONDITIONS WILL RESUME BY MID-MORNING SUNDAY.
GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
JGC/73
MARINE
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. /73
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 65 85 66 85 / 20 40 20 0
PENSACOLA 67 83 67 82 / 30 30 20 10
DESTIN 68 81 68 81 / 40 30 20 10
EVERGREEN 61 85 61 90 / 40 30 20 10
WAYNESBORO 62 83 63 90 / 30 50 20 10
CAMDEN 61 82 61 88 / 40 30 20 10
CRESTVIEW 62 88 61 90 / 40 30 20 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page