415
FXUS64 KMOB 302342
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
642 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 643 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, TORRENTIAL RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN THIS WEEKEND
FOR ALL AREA BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
THE HEAT FINALLY BEGINS TO RELAX AS WE ENTER A MUCH MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPPER TROUGHING BEGINS TO NUDGE ITS WAY INTO THE AREA AS UPPER
RIDGING RETREATS WESTWARD, ALLOWING FOR NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TO
PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MORE WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
PROVIDING FOR DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ATTEMPTS TO WORK ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE AREA, BUT WILL LIKELY HANG UP JUST NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF HEAT ADVISORIES AS
HEAT INDICES RISE INTO THE 108 TO 112 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITERIA IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE FRIDAY
AREAWIDE. WITH THAT SAID, HIGH TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 90'S TODAY AND UPPER 80'S TO LOWER 90'S FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY HOT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70'S.
WITH THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, THERE WILL
ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ANY GIVEN
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SOME MID-LEVEL DRY AIR BEGINS
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ROBUST
DOWNDRAFTS WITH ANY STORMS. STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM,
PARTICULARLY AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND. SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK, BUT
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS OR
BOWING SEGMENTS. IN ADDITION TO THIS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
LIKELY WITH STORMS. IF STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS OR DECIDE
TO SIT OVER ANY GIVEN LOCATION FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME,
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD BE POSSIBLE.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AND WE
GRADUALLY GET UPPER RIDGING TO WORK ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90'S AGAIN AND RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH TO MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE EACH DAY
NEXT WEEK.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY,
BECOMING A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL AREA BEACHES AS WE
GET INTO THE WEEKEND. MM/25
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TEMPORARILY REDUCING FLIGHT CATEGORY AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING VARIABLE AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WINDS
GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS RELAX TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TONIGHT. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1037 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS BECOMES A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS WEEKEND, AND FORECAST TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL NEED OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT SOME
POINT THIS WEEKEND. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
BECOME POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH BEST CHANCES THIS WEEKEND.
MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 91 75 91 / 50 70 40 50
PENSACOLA 79 91 77 89 / 30 70 60 60
DESTIN 80 90 78 88 / 40 60 60 80
EVERGREEN 73 90 72 88 / 40 70 60 80
WAYNESBORO 75 91 73 91 / 40 70 30 40
CAMDEN 74 89 73 86 / 30 60 50 70
CRESTVIEW 75 91 73 88 / 40 80 60 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>053-059-
261>266.
FL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
GM...NONE.
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