170
FXUS64 KMOB 240619
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1219 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S. WIND CHILLS VALUES BOTH NIGHTS COULD RANGE FROM AS
LOW AS THE SINGLE DIGITS WELL INLAND TO THE TEENS NEAR THE
COAST. COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...
THROUGH SATURDAY, A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, BRINGING INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RAIN SHOWERS NORTH
OF A STALLED COLD FRONT SITUATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. AS
THE FORECAST MOVES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, AN OPENING UPPER LOW MOVING
EAST ALONG THE US/MEXICO BORDER DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF, WHEN THEN MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
SOUTHEAST (AND OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA), WITH A
WARM FRONT MOVING INLAND OVER AND EAST OF I-65 LATER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. SBCAPES RISE TO AROUND 1000J/KG, BUT WHEN
COMBINED WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE, BULK WIND SHEAR IN THE 40-60KT
RANGE, DECENT 50KT 850MB JET, AND 0-1KM HELICITIES OF 150-250
M^2/S^2, STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. LOOKING AT THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS, THE INSTABILITY IS TALL, BUT SKINNY, LIMITING STRONG
UPDRAFTS, AND THE WIND PROFILE IS MORE LINEAR, LEADING TO SMALL
BOWING SEGMENTS AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ENOUGH
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS PRESENT FOR SPINNERS, THOUGH. MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE MEH FOR LARGE HAIL, BUT WITH THE GOOD UPPER DYNAMICS, CAN
NOT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS OCCUR. TIMING FOR
ANY ROWDY STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A STRONG POST SYSTEM COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THIS COLD
AIR AND STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL DROP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY,
BOTTOMING THEM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS OVER NORTHWESTERN-MOST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TO UPPER 20S OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, AND WINDS CHILLS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST OF I-65 TO UPPER TEENS SOUTHEAST. THE COLD AIR HAS
RESULTED IN AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, AND LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE STILL IS A VERY SMALL POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIPITATION AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AT MOST.
FROM TUESDAY ON, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, EASING THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. GUIDANCE
HAS BEEN INCONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING A SHIFT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
TO ONSHORE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
ADVERTISING NORTHERLY FLOW LIMITING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS MORE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY INTO THE COMING
WEEKEND. SOME RELIEF FOR THE REGION COMES AS TEMPERATURES MODERATE
THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL KEEP THE RIP RISK LOW
INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS INTO SUNDAY, THE
RIP RISK RISES TO HIGH. THE OFFSHORE FLOW MONDAY AND MORE VARIABLE
FLOW MID WEEK WILL DROP THE RIP RISK BACK TO LOW IN THE COMING WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
IFR TO MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST, NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO
10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS RAIN BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO
STRONG THIS WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
STRONG ONSHORE, THEN OFFSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND INTO THE COMING
WEEK. WINDS EASE IN THE COMING WEEK, THOUGH A SHIFT BACK TO ONSHORE
BY MID WEEK HAS BEEN INCONSISTENTLY ADVERTISED IN THE GUIDANCE.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 59 72 23 41 / 80 100 30 0
PENSACOLA 62 72 28 42 / 60 90 50 0
DESTIN 60 72 32 45 / 40 90 70 0
EVERGREEN 55 70 24 39 / 80 100 40 0
WAYNESBORO 43 64 19 38 / 100 100 20 0
CAMDEN 50 68 20 36 / 90 100 30 0
CRESTVIEW 57 73 28 42 / 60 90 60 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
GMZ650-655-670-675.
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