512
FXUS64 KMOB 131838 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1238 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1211 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. FOG COULD BE DENSE IN SPOTS.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WIND CHILLS COULD DROP TO NEAR 10
DEGREES.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
OUR LAST WARM DAY UNTIL NEXT WEEK IS UPON US AS TWO UPPER
TROUGHS, THE FIRST OVER CANADA DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND A
VERY WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE BROADER LONGWAVE PATTERN TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TO
START, VERY SUBTLE MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AS WINDS HAVE
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN ADVANCE OF THE FIRST SOUTHERN IMPULSE.
THIS HAS LED TO A GRADUAL RISE IN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS NOW
SNEAKING INTO THE 60S ALONG THE COAST. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES,
DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY TOP OUT LATER THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 84. FOG DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN IFFY ALONG THE BAY BUT AS
ADVECTION INCREASES AND DEWPOINTS REACH THEIR PEAK THIS EVENING WE
WILL NEED TO WATCH MOBILE BAY AND SURROUNDING LAND AREAS FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG. CURRENT HREF AND NBM PROBABILITIES HINT AT
THIS POSSIBLY STARTING AROUND 4 TO 5 PM AS TEMPERATURES COOL BUT
DEWPOINTS INCREASE. CONFIDENCE IN HOW DENSE AND IF FOG WILL BE
ABLE TO SETTLE WITH SLIGHTLY ELEVATED NEAR SURFACE WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS AND CLOUD COVER IS CURRENTLY KEEPING US FROM ISSUING ANY
FOG PRODUCTS. RADAR THIS AFTERNOON HAS SHOWN SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER TROUGHS MOVE IN AND ASCENT INCREASES.
BY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, BOTH UPPER TROUGHS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL LEAD TO A RATHER DRASTIC CHANGE AS COLD
ARCTIC AIR PLUNGES INTO THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE GATES OF
THE ARCTIC OPEN. LOOKING AT NBM PROBABILITIES AND WE CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES BEING THE COLDEST OF THE YEAR. PROBABILITIES
OF AIR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 20 DEGREES ARE FLOATING AROUND 50-70
PERCENT MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN
25 DEGREES ABOVE 80% ALMOST TO THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. GIVEN THE
CURRENT TRENDS GETTING COLDER AND COLDER WITH EACH RUN AND THE
FACT THAT GUIDANCE TENDS TO STRUGGLE WITH THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC
AIRMASSES, WE HAVE WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE AREA. ON TOP OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES WE
WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LEADING TO WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST.WITH WIND CHILLS
DROPPING TO NEAR 10 DEGREES INLAND AND 12 TO 15 DEGREES ALONG THE
COAST, WE WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
EXTREME COLD PRODUCTS. THE CRITERIA IS FOR WIND CHILLS LESS THAN
15 ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND WIND CHILLS LESS THAN 10 INLAND.
GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST, EXTREME COLD PRODUCTS WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS WHERE WINDS MAY STAY ELEVATED
ENOUGH TO RESULT IN MEETING CRITERIA. THIS MAY LOOK A LITTLE FUNKY
BUT OVERALL COASTAL AREAS ARE NOT ACCLIMATED TO THESE COLD OF
CONDITIONS (AS A COASTAL RESIDENT I CAN CONFIRM THAT IT WILL BE
WAYYY TO COLD AND I DREAD IT ALREADY) AND THUS THE IMPACTS OF COLD
TEMPERATURES TEND TO OCCUR BEFORE AREAS FURTHER INLAND THAT ARE
MORE ACCLIMATED. THIS IS THE REASONING FOR THE HIGHER THRESHOLDS
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTY AND WHY WE MAY END UP WITH EXTREME COLD
PRODUCTS FOR AREAS THAT ARE TECHNICALLY WARMER THAN AREAS TO THE
NORTH.
THE GOOD NEWS IS THIS COOLDOWN IS ONLY TEMPORARY AND THINGS WILL
QUICKLY FLIP NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN FLATTENS OUT AND UPPER
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE EASTERN US. EXPECT A GRADUAL
WARMUP THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S
BY THURSDAY. OUR NEXT RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME WELL AFTER NEXT
WEEK. BB-8
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A MIX OF LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS, WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POPPING UP FROM TIME TO
TIME ALONG AND NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 84. VERY LOW CEILINGS AND
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD A STRONG
COLD APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MOST CEILINGS WILL REACH THE LIFR
TO IFR CRITERIA, WITH VISIBILITIES MOSTLY REACHING IFR TO MVFR
CRITERIA. A LINE OF SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT, WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES ON SUNDAY. STRONG
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND
THE FRONT SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH STRONG SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS
SUBSIDE ON MONDAY, BECOMING A LIGHT EASTERLY WIND FOR TUESDAY.
BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 47 56 23 49 / 60 30 10 10
PENSACOLA 52 61 27 50 / 40 30 10 10
DESTIN 53 64 31 51 / 30 30 10 10
EVERGREEN 43 52 21 50 / 70 30 10 10
WAYNESBORO 39 47 19 48 / 90 20 10 10
CAMDEN 39 47 19 48 / 80 20 10 10
CRESTVIEW 49 58 22 51 / 40 30 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
GMZ670-675.
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