849
FXUS64 KMOB 162313 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
613 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2021
AVIATION
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS DIMINISH THIS EVENING THEN
RETURN TO AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. /29
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 325 PM CDT SAT OCT 16 2021/
NEAR TERM UPDATE /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY/...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD. AS THIS TROUGH DEPARTS EAST AND THEN
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED OVER THE LOCAL AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
MOVED EAST. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
(FROPA) AND THIS INCOMING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING IN MUCH DRIER
(PWATS LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES) AND COOLER AIR TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
INCOMING DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN BY DEW POINTS IN THE 40S NOW MOVING
INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
SENSIBLE WEATHER THROUGH THE THE NEAR TERM WILL THEREFORE CONSIST OF
DRY CONDITIONS AND NO RAIN CHANCES. FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON,
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AREA-WIDE, BUT WINDS OVER LAND AREAS
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECTING A VERY COOL
NIGHT TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH OF
I-10 AND INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH OF I-10. DID TREND
CLOSER TO THE MOS GUIDANCE (WHICH SHOWED COOLER LOWS) DUE TO
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGHS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL THEN LIKELY ONLY REACH THE LOWER TO MID
70S. LASTLY, A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. /26
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...FALL CONTINUES
ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS A COOL AND DRY
HIGH PRESSURE AREA DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE MAINLY ZONAL BY MONDAY, AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENCE
OF A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE PATTERN ON
MONDAY, LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUDS; HOWEVER, LIMITED
MOISTURE AND VERY WEAK LIFT WILL YIELD CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SLIGHT UPPER RIDGING
DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK SHORTWAVE, BUT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
WILL BE SLIPPING JUST A LITTLE EAST OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK RETURN
FLOW OFF THE GULF TRYING TO DEVELOP (ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY NIGHT).
THE VERY DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD, WITH PWATS REMAINING BELOW 0.5 INCHES UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY EVENING WHEN THEY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 0.7 TO
1.0 INCHES. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
THEN CLIMBING BACK UP INTO THE 50S TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT (WITH
SOME LOW 60 DEWPOINTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT).
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE THE
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO SET BACK UP. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE
COAST (A FEW UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). ON MONDAY HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. MONDAY NIGHT LOWS STILL IN THE UPPER
40S INLAND, BUT A LITTLE WARMER ALONG THE COAST WHERE MID TO UPPER
50S (EVEN AROUND 60 ON BARRIER ISLANDS) ARE EXPECTED. TUESDAY HIGHS
CONTINUE SLIGHT MODERATION, EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE REGION. TUESDAY NIGHT A LITTLE WARMER WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID 60S JUST SOUTH OF THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND EVEN A FEW UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.
/12
EXTENDED TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WEAKENS AND AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE
INTO AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
TIMEFRAME. TIMING OF THIS FROPA COULD CHANGE SLIGHTLY ON LATER
MODEL RUNS AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE THE DETAILS. RETURN
FLOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY OVER WEST AND SOUTHWEST
ZONES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BEFORE BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BOTH OF THOSE DAYS WE
SHOULD BE LOOKING AT CHANCE POPS (ABOUT 30 TO 40 PERCENT THURSDAY
AND AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT FRIDAY). FOR NOW WILL JUST CARRY
SHOWERS AND NO THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH DEPENDING ON RETURN FLOW
AND DESTABILIZATION, SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD CERTAINLY BECOME
POSSIBLE WITH THE LATE WEEK FROPA. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY LOOK
TO BE DRYING OUT AGAIN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE NORMAL MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS WILL BE EVEN MORE
ABOVE THE NORMAL LOW TO MID 50S, GENERALLY RANGING INSTEAD FROM THE
LOW 50S WELL INLAND TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S (AND EVEN A FEW LOWER
70S) CLOSER TO (AND ALONG THE COAST). /12
MARINE...A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 2 TO 5
FEET NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 7 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, INCLUDING MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND,
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, OPERATORS OF SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION OVER REMAINING BAYS AND SOUNDS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BECOMING MORE
EASTERLY. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE TO BE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET DURING
THIS TIME. MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL THEN DEVELOP BY
TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. /26
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ630>632-650-
655-670-675.
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