990
FXUS64 KMOB 082350
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
650 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 RANGE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL RETURN FOR ALL AREA
BEACHES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE VERY SPARSE CONVECTION
DISSIPATES THROUGH MID-EVENING, FOLLOWED BY MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS
IN THE MID 70S INLAND, UPPER 70S FOR OUR COASTAL COMMUNITIES, AND
AROUND 80 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE UPPER TROUGH NOW LIFTING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES
THROUGH THURSDAY, RESULTING IN A WEAK ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE, WITH PWATS LOCALLY
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES, ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
OUR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE APPEARS A
BIT LOWER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LATEST
CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR
THE COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG
THE LAND BREEZE. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND
BY AFTERNOON AS OUR BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY ON THURSDAY, ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZE TO PROGRESS A
BIT FARTHER INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
A PATTERN SHIFT TAKES SHAPE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
PRONOUNCED POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD
FROM LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S.
COAST. AS A LARGE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.,
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD, PLACING THE AREA UNDER A
NORTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DRIVING A LARGE-SCALE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ACTIVITY (40-60% POPS)
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN SPOTS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY MAY FAVOR ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES, AND
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT.
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT
OF THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION, WHICH WILL INFLUENCE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ULTIMATELY DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND PEAK AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-107 RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS OFFER LITTLE
RELIEF WITH MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE
COAST. INCREASED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
COOL FRONT ENTERING THE REGION MAY BRING HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 80S
FOR MANY AREAS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
INTERIOR.
AT THE BEACHES, A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO A MODERATE RISK ON FRIDAY FOR ALL
AREA BEACHES, PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. JGC/98
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH MID-EVENING WILL
BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KTS
WILL RESUME THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A SEABREEZE MOVES INLAND. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH LATE WEEK, BECOMING SOUTHERLY FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY,
BUILDING TO 2 TO 3 FEET BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 93 76 92 / 10 30 20 40
PENSACOLA 79 93 79 92 / 10 30 20 30
DESTIN 81 92 81 91 / 20 20 20 30
EVERGREEN 74 94 74 93 / 10 40 10 50
WAYNESBORO 74 95 74 94 / 20 30 10 20
CAMDEN 74 93 75 93 / 10 40 10 30
CRESTVIEW 75 95 75 93 / 10 30 10 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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