645
FXUS64 KMOB 021731
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
- A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING EAST OF
I-65 TODAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
ALL AREA BEACHES.
- MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA MAY CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT TODAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
THE CURRENT PACKAGE IS ON TRACK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR
THE COAST ARE ANTICIPATED TO TRANSITION TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF I-65 TODAY. /29
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
A COLD FRONT DEPICTED ON THE SURFACE OBSERVATION PLOT AND BEING
DETECTED BY REGIONAL RADARS CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
VERY SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AND REACH THE I-65 CORRIDOR BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY JUST OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT. THE
BOUNDARY WILL THEN WAVER ALONG THE COAST AS A SEA-BREEZE PUSHES
SLIGHTLY INLAND MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTH OF THE COAST BY
TUESDAY MORNING DUE TO DEVELOPING LAND-BREEZE. THIS BOUNDARY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
THAT WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH NOON MONDAY. THIS TROUGH IS
THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, BUT AN UPPER
CUTOFF LOW WILL BE LEFT BEHIND ROUGHLY CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
GEORGIA AND THAT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ON TUESDAY.
FOR TODAY, ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 2.1-2.3 INCHES. WE ARE STILL
FORECASTING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER COASTAL
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA THIS MORNING DUE TO SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO FORCING ALONG AN 850MB FRONT AND
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWNESS OF THIS SYSTEM,
WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO LINGER SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM ANDALUSIA TO MOBILE THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST.
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A
FEW AFTERNOON STORMS MOVING SOUTH OVER OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE AREA.
A FEW AFTERNOON STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY ALONG A
SEA-BREEZE AS WE RETURN TO A DIURNAL CONVECTION PATTERN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S, BUT WITH THE DRIER AIR MASS FILTERING IN, HEAT INDICES SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT,
LOWERING TO A MODERATE RISK FOR MONDAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK DROPS
TO A LOW RISK FOR TUESDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK. /22
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
GENERAL MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WITH A WIND SHIFT TONIGHT AS A FRONT PASSES ARE EXPECTED OVER NON-
COASTAL COUNTIES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES, WITH LOCAL DROPS TO LOW END MVFR FROM
UPPER END MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. LOCALLY VARIABLE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY STALLING SOUTH OF THE COAST
TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS (10-15 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST)
WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2026
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOBILE BAY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND UNTIL 7 AM, AND CONTINUES UNTIL 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS. A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON MONDAY THEN BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON
WEDNESDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 91 70 91 72 / 30 10 10 10
PENSACOLA 89 75 90 76 / 80 30 10 10
DESTIN 87 76 89 77 / 90 30 10 0
EVERGREEN 90 69 90 69 / 30 10 10 0
WAYNESBORO 90 69 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 88 69 89 70 / 0 0 10 10
CRESTVIEW 89 70 91 70 / 70 30 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ650-
655-670-675.
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