029
FXUS64 KMOB 252353
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
653 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING WILL OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AT THIS HOUR. AN EARLY GLANCE AT THE
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT PATCHY FOG (POTENTIALLY
DENSE FOG) IS POSSIBLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER, GIVEN TODAY'S HEAVY RAINFALL
AREA-WIDE, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF OUR AREA AS
WELL (CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW). STILL ANTICIPATE YET ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
BEING THE PREDOMINANT THREAT. 07/MB
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KMOB AND KEVX RADARS ARE DETECTING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR
COASTAL AREA AND THE GULF. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING BETWEEN 1.5 TO 3.0 INCHES HAVE
FALLEN ACROSS OUR COASTAL COMMUNITIES WITHIN THE PAST 12 HOURS,
WITH UP TO 5 INCHES FOR WESTERN STONE COUNTY MS, WHERE A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT. THESE VALUES TAPER OFF FURTHER
INLAND AS THE DEEPER CONVECTION WANES AND RAINFALL RATES DROP.
SEVERAL BANDING FEATURES OVER THE GULF ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE BEING DEPICTED ON THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH LATE EVENING BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3
INCHES OF RAIN (LOCALLY HIGHER) TO THOSE AREAS. SOME OF THE CAMS
ARE HINTING AT AN ADDITIONAL BAND OF STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
FURTHER TO WEST OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BRINGING AN
ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN.
OVERALL, THIS LARGE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MID
TO LATE EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE NEXT WAVE WE ARE MONITORING OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
AFTERNOON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF OUR
ZONES REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS OUR KEY MESSAGING ON THE POTENTIAL OF FLASH FLOODING OUR
WARNING AREA REMAINS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE WITH ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES, LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES AS PWATS HOVER ABOVE 2 INCHES.
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR WHERE BANDING AND
PROLONGED TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES
OCCUR.
BEACH FORECAST - THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN HIGH
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY FOR THE COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA BEACHES. OFFSHORE STORMS WILL ONLY ACT TO AMPLIFY THE SURF
AND RIP CURRENTS EACH DAY. /22
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLIDE NORTH ALONG THE COAST AT THIS HOUR AND
WILL IMPACT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS OR SO. CEILINGS
WILL FALL INTO THE MVFR TO IFR RANGE LATE THIS EVENING, BUT
VISIBILITY SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THE TERMINALS. PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS ON
TUESDAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 3 TO 4 FEET THROUGH MIDWEEK, OCCASIONALLY
TO 5 FEET NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY DUE TO PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
WILL OCCUR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 81 72 85 / 50 90 30 60
PENSACOLA 74 81 74 84 / 60 80 50 40
DESTIN 75 83 75 84 / 70 70 60 40
EVERGREEN 70 80 70 85 / 60 90 30 80
WAYNESBORO 69 81 70 85 / 50 90 30 90
CAMDEN 68 78 69 84 / 60 90 30 80
CRESTVIEW 70 82 70 87 / 60 80 50 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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