261
FXUS64 KMOB 261821
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
121 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT ADVISORIES BECOME POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
THE COMING WEEK.
- RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN IN THE COMING WEEK, WITH
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER TEXAS SHIFTS EAST
AND BUILDS NORTH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, SHIFTING AN
UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST FURTHER EAST. A
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAD MOVED OVER FORECAST AREA WASHES OUT,
WITH MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND NEARBY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE GULF. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE
EASTWARD ADVANCING UPPER HIGH WILL ACTUALLY CAUSE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TO DROP A BIT, WITH MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY, AND MID/UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASING. WITH THAT, RAIN CHANCES DECREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND (AREA WIDE SCATTERED MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-65 THIS
AFTERNOON), WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING A BIT. A DRY WEEKEND IS IN
STORE FOR THE CURRENT SHORT TERM. AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS NORTH IN
THE COMING WEEK, UPPER SUBSIDENCE DECREASES ALLOWING DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE TO MOVE INLAND AND A RETURN OF RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE COMING WEEK, INITIALLY SOUTHEAST OF I-65
MONDAY. FOR TODAY, INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH
(MLCAPES RISING INTO THE 1500-2500J/KG RANGE) EACH DAY FOR STRONG
STORMS. WITH WIND SHEAR WEAK AT BEST, ORGANIZED STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED, WITH MOST DAMAGE COMING FROM OUTFLOW DRIVEN PULSE TYPE
STORMS. WITH A RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY, AFTERNOON
PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER HIGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S,
AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. EVEN WITH THE
DROP IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, ENOUGH REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
FOR DAILY HEAT INDICES TO TOP OUT IN THE 100-106 DEGREE RANGE OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH AN UPTICK MONDAY
INTO THE 101 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE. LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S, UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COAST ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER/EASTERN CONUS AS IT SHIFTS NORTH, EVENTUALLY
ENDING UP CENTERED OVER KY/WV/OH BY WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SHIFT NORTH,
MOISTURE INFLUX SQUASHING SUBSIDENCE DECREASES A BIT, ALLOWING MORE
GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES IN THE
EXTENDED INCREASE BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY MID WEEK. EVEN
WITH THE DECREASE IN THE SUBSIDENCE, TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE LEVELS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME
HEAT INDICES RISE INTO THE 105-110 DEGREE RANGE OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 TUESDAY AND FRIDAY, SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE
POSSIBLITY OF HEAT ADVISORIES IN THE COMING WEEK, MID WEEK IF THE
RAIN COOLING DECREASES OR IS DELAYED TO LATER IN DAY.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, ONSHORE FLOW
REMAINS MODEST AT BEST WITH THE SHIFTING UPPER PATTERN. EVEN WITH A
LARGE TIDAL RANGE, THE LACK OF ORGANIZED ONSHORE SWELL WILL KEEP THE
RIP RISK LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY CONTINUES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN
CONFINED PRIMARILY EAST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO FLIGHT
CATEGORY. WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST NEAR OR LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, THEN BECOMES A DIURNAL PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND A LIGHT OFFSHORE
FLOW EACH NIGHT. A GENERAL LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP MIDWEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 75 92 75 94 / 0 10 0 0
PENSACOLA 79 91 78 93 / 10 10 0 10
DESTIN 79 90 79 91 / 10 10 0 0
EVERGREEN 73 93 73 94 / 10 0 0 10
WAYNESBORO 75 94 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 74 91 74 91 / 10 10 0 0
CRESTVIEW 73 94 74 95 / 10 10 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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