088
FXUS64 KMOB 230616
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
116 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF BEACHES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY COULD BRING
A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ADDITIONAL LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
- SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
AN ACTIVE COUPLE OF DAYS AHEAD AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PROGRESS THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE HAS
ALREADY MOVED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND IS BEGINNING TO
EXIT STAGE RIGHT. IN ITS WAKE, A SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
SLOWLY SAG INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF STORMS OVER
THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION, UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST OPENING UP A CORRIDOR FOR SEVERAL
CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO RIDE ALONG THE SLOWING TO STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY. EACH WAVE OF STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A SERIES OF SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER FLOW WILL HELP KICKOFF
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE
BOUNDARY AREA LIKELY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR. THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE
OVERALL SHEAR SEEMS RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME FOR ORGANIZATION
BEYOND SOME MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS; RATHER IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY
ON THE BACK OF STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SOME DRIER AIR
ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE SEVERE HAIL
REPORTS EARLIER ON IN THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS BEGIN. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN RECENT
RAINS AND RATHER MOIST PROFILES AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR TWO INCHES.
STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON THURSDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STORMS WOULD HAVE
SIMILAR ISSUES WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY A
SEVERE HAILSTONE OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK UPPER RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS STORM CHANCES DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE. AFTER A COUPLE WEEKS OF RAINFALL AND
STORMS, TRUE NORTHERN GULF SUMMER WILL BE UPON US AS HEAT INDICES
LOOK TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE MID 90S. BB-8
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BRING LOCALIZED DROPS
TO MVFR VISIBILITIES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 THROUGH DAYBREAK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
BY MID-AFTERNOON AND PUSH SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING, BRINGING LOCALIZED DROPS TO LIFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AND MVFR
CEILINGS WITH GUSTY WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOT WILL SHIFT
TO WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE MOST OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL
MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EARLY
WEDNESDAY BRINGS A BRIEF PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW BEFORE TRENDING
BACK MORE WESTERLY. SEAS SETTLE TO 1 TO 2 FEET. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 93 74 92 73 / 40 30 70 20
PENSACOLA 93 77 91 76 / 30 30 60 10
DESTIN 90 77 89 76 / 30 20 40 10
EVERGREEN 90 71 90 71 / 50 20 50 20
WAYNESBORO 90 72 89 72 / 40 10 70 20
CAMDEN 86 71 87 71 / 50 10 60 30
CRESTVIEW 93 73 92 72 / 40 10 60 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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