249
FXUS64 KMOB 311212
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
712 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
- FLOODING POTENTIAL: STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY AND TOMORROW,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING.
- HEAT RISK CONCERNS: HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK FOR THE COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE FORECAST IS THE INCREASE IN THE RIP CURRENT
RISK LATER THIS WEEK. THE OVERNIGHT RIP CURRENT MOS PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE INCREASED SUBSTANTIALLY GIVEN THE INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW LATE IN THE WEEK. EXPECT A QUICK INCREASE IN THE RISK BY MID-
WEEK WITH A HIGH RISK NOW IN THE FORECAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO THE
HIGH RISK THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES. STILL ANTICIPATE THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTY
WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR AN MCS OR
UNORGANIZED CLUSTERING OF STORMS TO SLIDE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO
OUR AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE
REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THOSE STORMS HOLD
TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT INTO OUR COUNTIES. DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT WITH AN MCS TOMORROW. THAT SAID,
THE OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE MORE
THAN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER AN MCS ROLLS INTO
THE AREA FROM OUR NORTH. GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD
BE THE PREDOMINANT THREAT DURING THE DAYTIME CONVECTION ON
MONDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. 07/MB
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AN INTERESTING PATTERN UNFOLDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. AN UPPER TROF ORIENTED OFF THE EAST COAST BUILDS
BACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE AN
UPPER RIDGE ORIENTED NEAR/ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
BROADENS AND MOVES TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL STATES. A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE INTERIOR PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS ANTICIPATED TO MEANDER NEAR THIS POSITION THROUGH
SUNDAY. A SURFACE LOW FORMS NEAR SOUTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT THEN
MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER THE FORECAST AREA DRIFTING TO NEAR THE COAST BY MONDAY, THEN
MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. A NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL BE
PRESENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY, THEN A BACK-DOOR STYLE
COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN STATES.
THE WEAK BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL SUPPORT CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN MOSTLY CHANCE
POPS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY. WILL MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING
ISSUES WITH STORMS MAINLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, THEN MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BACK-DOOR
FRONT AND ALSO AS THE CENTRAL STATES UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY, THEN
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS RETURN TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY THEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. FRIDAY WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.
LOWS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S,
THEN TREND COOLER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S WELL INLAND
TO NEAR 70 AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM
THE MID 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST. A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN A LOW RISK IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TODAY, OUTSIDE OF ANY
STORMS. A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE COASTAL
COUNTIES AT THIS HOUR, WHILE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS IS
EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TURN WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
INLAND COUNTIES WHILE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST.
GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOON. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS THROUGH
MONDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY LATE TUESDAY AND EASTERLY BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY IN THE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 90 74 92 73 / 40 20 40 10
PENSACOLA 88 76 90 75 / 40 30 30 10
DESTIN 86 76 88 75 / 30 30 30 10
EVERGREEN 89 72 91 72 / 70 60 30 20
WAYNESBORO 91 73 92 72 / 30 30 40 20
CAMDEN 87 71 89 70 / 60 50 30 30
CRESTVIEW 89 72 93 72 / 70 40 40 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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