849
FXUS64 KMOB 080538
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1138 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
- DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY NEAR AND
EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. DENSE MARINE FOG POTENTIAL WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- THERE IS A LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ALONG
AND WEST OF I-65 FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY.
- STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW LIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND COASTAL COUNTIES ARE
MOVING OVER BAY WATERS WITH WATER TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 60. THIS
PATTERN IS CONDUCIVE FOR ADVECTIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT AIDED BY
RADIATIVE COOLING, ALTHOUGH AN EXPANSIVE CIRRUS SHIELD HAS SPREAD
INTO THE AREA AND IS LIMITING THE RADIATIVE COOLING. THIS IN TURN
IS HAMPERING DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT, AT LEAST AT THE MOMENT. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ALONG AND EAST OF I-65
THROUGH 9 AM THURSDAY MORNING, AND WILL LEAVE THIS AS IS FOR NOW
AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT THIS COULD BE LIMITED AGAIN
BY UPPER CLOUDINESS AS WELL AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THE
PASSING SURFACE LOW TENDING TO KEEP SURFACE WINDS FROM DROPPING
BELOW 5 KNOTS.
MEANWHILE THROUGH THURSDAY AND GOING INTO FRIDAY, A LARGE UPPER
TROF STRENGTHENS WHILE SLOWLY ADVANCING ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES,
THEN CONTINUES SLOWLY ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. BY
FRIDAY MORNING, A SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING DOWN TO THE OHIO/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
CONFLUENCE THEN OVER TO NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE A SECOND
SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN PLACE. THIS SECOND SURFACE LOW ADVANCES TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY FRIDAY EVENING THEN DEEPENS
WHILE LIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES, AND IN THE PROCESS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY FROM LATE
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY THEN LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THIS WILL PAN
OUT, BUT AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE BEST FORCING LOOKS TO
MOSTLY PASS JUST WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, THOUGH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AFFECTED. PAST THIS POINT, A LESSER SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING LARGE UPPER TROF WILL
BRING MILD TO POSSIBLY MODERATE DEEP LAYER LIFT ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOK TO BE IN PLACE AS THE DEEP
LAYER LIFT SHIFTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO BE OVER THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS WHERE
THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER FORCING POTENTIAL EXISTS. CONSIDERING THE
UNCERTAINTY, WILL MENTION IN THE KEY MESSAGES A LOW END POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65 FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY AND REASSESS
ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN DRY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN MUCH COOLER AIR FLOWS INTO THE
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL
DROP TO THE MID 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S NEAR THE COAST.
SIMILAR LOWS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT, THEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S
NEAR THE COAST. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S WITH SIMILAR
VALUES FOLLOWING THROUGH THURSDAY EXCEPT FOR A BIT WARMER ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE'S A CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY, AND WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE, NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH A MODERATE RISK
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK ON SUNDAY AND A LOW
RISK ON MONDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO LIMIT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT,
BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR DENSE FOG LATER TONIGHT
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 WITH LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY DENSE
FOG ELSEWHERE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS ON THURSDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST WED JAN 7 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY. DENSE MARINE
FOG POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT,
THEN DIMINISHES ON MONDAY. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE
WELL OFFSHORE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE
AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 61 75 64 77 / 0 10 10 50
PENSACOLA 62 73 64 74 / 0 10 10 20
DESTIN 62 71 62 72 / 0 10 10 10
EVERGREEN 58 77 60 79 / 0 10 10 30
WAYNESBORO 59 77 62 75 / 0 0 40 80
CAMDEN 57 74 61 76 / 0 10 10 50
CRESTVIEW 58 76 59 78 / 0 10 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR ALZ056>060-
261>266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MSZ079.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>636-650-
655.
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