244
FXUS64 KMOB 041058
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
558 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 532 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ANY STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL, WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE.
- WATERSPOUTS REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE WATERS EACH MORNING,
PRIMARILY FROM THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THROUGH MID-MORNING.
- PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND 103-107 ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
PERFORMED A BRIEF FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING TO BRING IN LATEST
SHORT-RANGE BLENDED GUIDANCE. OVERALL, THE OVERNIGHT SMALL-SCALE
COMPLEX WE HAD THAT RODE ALONG THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATED
LEFT A TRAIL OF SUBTLE SUBSIDENCE/STABILIZATION IN IT'S WAKE,
HELPING TO NUDGE NEARSHORE WINDS FROM THE NORTH TO SUPPORT
GREATEST CONFLUENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE MARINE AREAS.
THIS MIGHT CAUSE A BIT OF A DELAY FOR CONVECTION TO FILL CLOSER
TO THE COAST, BUT AS MARINE INSTABILITY REBUILDS CLOSER TO
SUNRISE, SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY SPREAD NORTH WITH TIME. RECENT
HRRR TRENDS PINPOINT THIS SCENARIO REAL WELL, REACHING THE COAST
AROUND/AFTER DAYBREAK INTO MID-MORNING. WE'RE WITHIN AN
ANOMALOUSLY MOISTURE- RICH ENVIRONMENT OVERALL, WHERE WE COULD SEE
A COUPLE OF WATERSPOUTS ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY 20NM
OFFSHORE AS IT DRIFTS NORTH THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION/SURFACE HEATING WILL SUPPORT LAND DEVELOPMENT LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SUPPORTED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY, POTENTIALLY ENHANCED BY ANY OUTFLOW FROM
COASTAL/MARINE ACTIVITY. LOADED IN PPI03 NBM GUIDANCE WHICH
APPEARS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE METEOROLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT AT PLAY.
ANY SUBTLE PVA IN VERY HIGH MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY
CONFIDENTLY LEAN ON THE HIGHER END OF POPS WHICH THE 40-70'S
(70-90'WEST) APPEARS GOOD OVERALL. KLG
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
A TROPICAL EASTERLY WAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A BROAD CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT OVER THE FAR NORTHEASTERN
GULF EARLY THIS MORNING FROM PWAT IMAGERY, WITH THE WAVE PROJECTED
TO DRIFT WESTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING A VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS
INTO THE AREA, WITH PWATS RISING TO AROUND 2.4 INCHES SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 TODAY, WHICH IS NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY TODAY AS A RESULT, WITH
POPS AROUND 60-80% FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. COVERAGE WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE MARINE AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW WATERSPOUTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CAM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS SOMEWHAT LIMITED COVERAGE OVER LAND THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE
COMBINATION OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND FORCING FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE
SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW PROMINENT BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANY
STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL, WITH ISOLATED FLOODING POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY
MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS. LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-70%
POPS) ON SATURDAY, BUT A BIT LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED (40-70% POPS) INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE RIDGE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SHIFTS WEST AND TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTHEAST SENDS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
AS OUR FLOW SHIFTS TO NORTHERLY BY SUNDAY, THIS BOUNDARY COULD REACH
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, PROVIDING ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS AS CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AND PERHAPS MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
WELL. THE FRONT SHOULD WASH OUT BY TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK
EAST AND FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY, THOUGH RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY NOT COME BACK DOWN TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS UNTIL
AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM MID 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY AND SATURDAY,
INCREASING TO LOW TO MID 90S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES IN THE 103-107 RANGE. AT THE BEACHES, A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. JGC/98
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING, WILL MONITOR DEVELOPING SCT TSRA ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK THROUGH MID/LATE MORNING, DRIFTING
NORTH. INTRODUCED TEMPO FOR COASTAL TAF SITES DUE TO INCREASED
LIKELIHOOD OF PASSING SHOWERS/STORMS WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
VIS/CIGS LEADING TO PERIODIC LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN THIS TIME
FRAME. BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME INTO THE AFTERNOON, TIMED PROB30'S
FOR FURTHER INLAND TAF SITES INCLUDING KMOB AND KBFM GENERALLY
18-23Z FOR ADDITIONAL SCT TSRA ACTIVITY LATER TODAY, WITH THE SAME
BRIEF THREATS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
A GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME WESTERLY
THIS WEEKEND. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. A FEW
WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 89 73 90 73 / 70 30 50 10
PENSACOLA 88 77 89 76 / 60 20 50 20
DESTIN 87 78 87 78 / 50 20 40 20
EVERGREEN 92 72 93 70 / 50 10 50 20
WAYNESBORO 93 72 93 71 / 40 20 50 20
CAMDEN 94 73 93 73 / 30 20 60 20
CRESTVIEW 90 73 91 73 / 60 20 70 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page