109
FXUS64 KMOB 110550
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1250 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 THROUGH
WEEKEND, WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 108-110.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY,
INCREASING TO NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING, IS POSSIBLE.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL AREA BEACHES WILL
OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
ONE MORE DAY OF TYPICAL MID-JULY WEATHER WILL OCCUR TODAY BEFORE
AN ANOMALOUS PATTERN BRINGS BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS MENTIONED IN THE EARLIER DISCUSSION UPDATE, WE ARE EXPECTING
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A LAND-BREEZE.
MOST OF THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH OVER THE GULF
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL IN LAND-BASED
ACTIVITY EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY ALLOWS STORMS
TO DEVELOP NORTH OF I-10. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. SIMILAR TO THIS PAST EVENING, WE ARE EXPECTING THE
CONVECTION TO LINGER WELL INLAND THROUGH MID-EVENING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 91-96 DEGREES. WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY RANGING FROM 73 TO 77 DEGREES, MAXIMUM APPARENT
TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) SHOULD RANGE FROM 100-107 DEGREES WITH
ISOLATED SHORT DURATION INSTANCES AS HIGH AS 110 DEGREES. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MIDDLE 70S
INLAND, UPPER 70S FOR OUR COASTAL COMMUNITIES, AND AROUND 80
DEGREES AT THE BEACHES.
THE PATTERN SHIFT STARTS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TO THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR REGION. WHILE
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROUGH IN THE FORM OF A
SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY BECOMES DETACHED AND MIGRATES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY NOON ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL
THEN RETROGRADE WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA
SITUATED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.S. UNTIL THEN, A WEAK SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE AREA REFLECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS UNDER THE UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO MIGRATE INTO OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE
ARE STILL EXPECTING A SURFACE BOUNDARY TO BE SOMEWHERE NEAR OR
ENTER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHERE DUE TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CONTAMINATION. WITH PWATS
INCREASING TO AN AVERAGE AROUND 2.3" SUNDAY AND MONDAY, NUMEROUS
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BOTH DAYS, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE WPC HAS OUR AREA
OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL NOT ONLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT FOR TUESDAY AS WELL
DESPITE THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A
CORRIDOR OF 3 TO 6" OF RAINFALL FOR THIS EVENT IF TRAINING OF
SLOW-MOVING STORMS ARE ABLE TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
WE WOULD ANTICIPATE A GENERAL 1 TO 3" OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WE WILL RESUME OUR TYPICAL MID-JULY WEATHER THROUGH
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER
THE REGION. /22
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. CURRENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE TO 5-10 KNOTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
TO THE AREA ALONG/JUST OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THESE STORMS
ARE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS AND DROPS OF
CIGS/VIS TO MVFR AND EVEN LOCALLY IFR WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
SS/97
MARINE
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY, BECOMING MORE WESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 3 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 93 76 92 73 / 30 10 80 70
PENSACOLA 92 80 92 77 / 30 20 80 80
DESTIN 90 81 89 78 / 20 20 50 80
EVERGREEN 94 74 91 71 / 20 20 80 70
WAYNESBORO 96 75 91 72 / 10 10 80 70
CAMDEN 93 75 89 72 / 10 10 80 70
CRESTVIEW 94 76 92 73 / 40 20 80 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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