702
FXUS64 KMOB 091805
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
105 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 100 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
- DANGEROUS HURRICANE ISAIAS APPROACHES THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THIS EVENING.
- WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT.
- LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DEVASTATING WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA COASTS AS ISAIAS NEARS LANDFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
ON THE WEATHER MAPS, WHAT IS NOW MAJOR HURRICANE ISAIAS ABOUT 145
MILES SOUTH OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA IS MOVING STEADILY NORTH
NORTHEAST AND WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT BEGINS TO ENTER THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA MARINE
ZONES. SPIRAL OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD
AS ISAIAS GAINS LATITUDE AND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THERE ARE NUMEROUS
HIGH IMPACTS FOR THE NEAR TERM. LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND
DEVASTATING WINDS LIKELY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA
COASTS AS ISAIAS APPROACHES LANDFALL. LARGE, BATTERING WAVES IN
THE SURF ZONE WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF COASTAL EROSION. RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE DEADLY. THERE IS A MODERATE TO MAJOR RISK OF
EXCESSIVE, FLOODING RAINS. THE GREATEST CONCERN BEING MORE FOCUSED
OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WHERE THERE IS A CONCERN FOR CONSIDERABLE FLOODING RAINS. OUTER
SPIRAL BAND TORNADO RISK IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA DOWN TO ALL OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. FOR
ALL THE LATEST SPECIFIC DETAILS/UPDATES ON ALL THE VARIOUS IMPACTS
FROM ISAIAS, PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MOBILE/PENSACOLA HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS AND WEB AT
WEATHER.GOV/MOB WHERE EACH IMPACT IS PROVIDED FRONT AND CENTER.
/10
AFTER LANDFALL AND ISAIAS MOVES DEEPER INLAND, THE STORM WILL
ACCELERATE AND PHASE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH WHILE UNDERGOING
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. AS THIS OCCURS, ISAIAS RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTWARD, SPREADING STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
FAR INLAND. MEANWHILE, DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE WILL
RAPIDLY END PRECIPITATION ONCE THE CORE MOVES INLAND. 98/10
..EXTENDED PERIOD
A FEW LINGERING BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS OUR
FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN ZONES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
ISAIAS CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL HAVE
LONG SINCE PHASED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EJECTS ACROSS THE TN/OH
RIVER VALLEYS SUNDAY AM WHILE DEEP LAYER DRIER AIR SPREADS EASTWARD
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. SHORT-WAVE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY, AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF, THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND
LOOK TO BE FAR FROM OCTOBER LIKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S, OR ABOUT 3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE FAR FROM OCTOBER LIKE. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S, OR ABOUT 7 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S INLAND AND
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. THESE LOWS ARE ABOUT 3 TO 7
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST. THESE
LOWS ARE ABOUT 9 TO 14 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. /10
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
HAZARDOUS FLIGHT CONDITIONS FOR AREA TAF'S NEXT 24 HRS DUE TO
APPROACH AND LANDFALL OF HURRICANE ISAIAS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
MAJOR HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF BEGINS TO TURN MORE NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE AT TIME OF LANDFALL. WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY TODAY/TONIGHT AND
SEAS BECOME VERY HIGH AS ISAIAS APPROACHES AND MOVES NORTH ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS. /10
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
NO CHANGE TO CURRENT THINKING AS RELAYED FROM EARLY AM HYDROLOGY
DISCUSSION. FOR THE RIVERS, BANDS OF HEAVY RAINS WILL MOVE INLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AS ISAIAS APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
MOVES INLAND. A DECENT NORTHERLY PACE WITH THIS STORM WILL HELP TO
LIMIT RAINFALL TOTALS OVERALL, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TOMBIGBEE RIVER. STILL, LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. ALSO, SMALLER, FLASHIER RIVERS AND CREEKS
SOUTH OF I-65 CAN SEE RAPID FILLING THEN FLOODING, WITH FLOOD
WARNINGS ISSUED FOR FLASHIER RIVERS IN OUR COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THE
MOBILE RIVER EAST. ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK WILL SHIFT THE GREATEST
AREA OF CONCERN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AL AND FL
AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY SHIFTING OF
THE TRACK OF ISAIAS, ESPECIALLY WESTWARD. ALSO, WITH THE SHIFTING
WINDS COMING WITH ISAIAS, WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREA NEAR COASTAL
RIVERS FOR ADDED STORM SURGE ADDITION TO RIVER FLOODING. /16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 62 78 60 85 / 90 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 68 78 66 84 / 100 0 0 0
DESTIN 72 80 69 83 / 90 10 0 0
EVERGREEN 60 79 57 84 / 100 20 0 0
WAYNESBORO 59 73 57 86 / 100 30 0 0
CAMDEN 58 76 57 83 / 100 30 10 0
CRESTVIEW 67 80 59 84 / 100 20 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALZ051>055-057-058.
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR ALZ056-059-060-261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-
266.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.
HURRICANE WARNING FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-
204-206.
STORM SURGE WARNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
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