979
FXUS64 KMOB 250918
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
418 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 414 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
OVERALL FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK. OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, THERE WILL LIKELY BE AN INCREASED PROBABILITY FOR MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS A
COUPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS COLLIDE AND LIFT NORTH OUT OF THE MARINE
WATERS. THESE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, PRIMARILY EAST
OF PENSACOLA, BUT GIVEN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEEN NOTABLY DRIER FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, IF STORMS CAN TRAIN OVER SOME OF OUR URBAN AREAS IN THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THAT COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.
MM/25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 133 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
CONVECTION OVER THE GULF HAS BEEN THE FOCUS OF OUR ATTENTION THIS
EVENING WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF STORMS JUST NOW REACHING THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BEACHES. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS SITTING 50+ NAUTICAL
MILES OFFSHORE AND LOOKS TO SLIDE GENERALLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, LIKELY APPROACHING THE COASTAL COMMUNITIES BY ROUGHLY
09Z. THERE'S BEEN A SIGNAL IN SEVERAL OF THE CAMS OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS THAT CONVECTION WILL ALSO LIKELY BEGIN FLARING UP SOMEWHERE
WEST OF I-65 (ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES) BETWEEN ROUGHLY
09-12Z WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND SLIDING INTO
THE REGION BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS ON MEMORIAL
DAY, HOWEVER, FLOODING IS THE BIGGER CONCERN. THE RECENT 00Z HREF
PROBABILITY-MATCHED MEAN (PMM) FOR QPF SHOWS A FEW BULLSEYES OF OF 4-
7 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE
BULLSEYES HAVE SHIFTED RUN-TO-RUN, BUT THERE'S A GENERAL TREND THAT
SOMEWHERE WEST OF I-65 COULD EASILY RACK UP 3+ INCHES OF RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FURTHERMORE, THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE COMING DAYS REMAINS FLOODING.
WHILE WE DON'T ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES, WE DO
ANTICIPATE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE RAINFALL RATES ALONG WITH THE MOVEMENT OF
THE STORMS (SLOWER STORMS OR STORMS THAT REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC). STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL EASILY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME. GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON FRIDAY IN CENTRAL
MOBILE COUNTY AND THE VERY SATURATED SOILS, THAT AREA IN PARTICULAR
WILL BE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IN THE
COMING DAYS.
A WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE AREA REMAINS ON
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE SITTING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
DEEP ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS WITH PWATS SURGING TO OVER 2.0 INCHES AT
TIMES THIS WEEK. MULTIPLE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE
FLOW ALOFT, PROVIDING AMPLE ASCENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HEAVY RAIN IS THE PREDOMINANT
CONCERN, ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS EACH AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, WE
ARE HOLDING OFF ON A FLOOD WATCH GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY
WHERE THESE STORMS MIGHT SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER, A WATCH
COULD BE ON THE TABLE AT SOME POINT IF OUR CONFIDENCE IN LOCATIONS
INCREASES (AS WE DON'T WANT TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
WHEN SOME LOCATIONS MAY NOT RAIN MUCH AT ALL).
BEACH FORECAST - GIVEN THE CONSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SIGNAL OVER THE
COMING DAYS, THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HIGH FOR THE MEMORIAL
DAY HOLIDAY THROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY FOR THE COASTAL
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES. OFFSHORE STORMS WILL ONLY ACT
TO AMPLIFY THE SURF AND RIP CURRENTS EACH DAY. 07/MB
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS UNTIL MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RAMP UP SIGNIFICANTLY AS WE
HEAD INTO DAYBREAK AND THE MORNING HOURS, WITH REDUCTIONS IN
FLIGHT CATEGORY EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE MORNING. BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, THINGS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE SOMEWHAT AS STORMS
SHIFT EAST WITH MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORY RETURNING IN THEIR WAKE.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH
TUESDAY. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FEET TONIGHT INTO MIDWEEK. NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 81 71 82 72 / 90 70 90 40
PENSACOLA 82 73 82 74 / 90 70 90 30
DESTIN 82 74 83 74 / 90 60 80 30
EVERGREEN 80 69 81 70 / 100 60 100 20
WAYNESBORO 80 69 80 70 / 100 60 100 40
CAMDEN 79 68 79 69 / 90 60 100 30
CRESTVIEW 82 70 84 70 / 90 60 80 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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