048
FXUS64 KMOB 261152
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
652 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEAT ADVISORIES BECOME POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN
THE COMING WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS MORNING
ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. ADJUSTED MORNING
POPS UPWARD TO BETTER REPRESENT THE CURRENT ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE. /96
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE FORECAST REGION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST
ON FRIDAY WHILE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA
BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE. HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH MAINLY
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS ON FRIDAY PRIMARILY EAST OF I-65. AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS AND THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDS TO
ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THEN STEADILY AMPLIFIES
INTO A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES BY
SUNDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS ON MONDAY, THEN A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES LEAD TO A SHORTWAVE TROF FORMING OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT WHICH LOOKS TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY GOING
INTO MIDWEEK. AM EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN POPS INCREASE TO CHANCE TO LIKELY
BY TUESDAY WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S THEN GRADUALLY TREND TO
THE MID 90S AREAWIDE BY MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-105 ARE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES THEN TREND TO 105-110 ON MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI, SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME NECESSARY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES THEN TREND A BIT LOWER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
DAYTIME HIGHS MODERATE A BIT TO THE LOWER 90S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S WELL INLAND TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST WITH
SIMILAR VALUES FOLLOWING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOW RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY. /29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, MAINLY EAST OF I-65. EXPECT
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS TODAY
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER DARK. /98
MARINE
ISSUED AT 246 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, BECOMING A DIURNAL PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW
EACH NIGHT. A GENERAL LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MIDWEEK. /98
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 91 75 92 75 / 10 0 10 0
PENSACOLA 91 79 92 78 / 30 10 10 0
DESTIN 89 80 90 79 / 30 10 10 0
EVERGREEN 92 73 93 73 / 30 10 0 0
WAYNESBORO 94 75 94 75 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 90 73 91 74 / 20 10 0 0
CRESTVIEW 92 74 94 74 / 60 10 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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