516  
FXUS64 KMOB 200706 AAA  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
106 AM CST THU FEB 20 2020  
   
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND COOL  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA  
LATE THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS PUSHED INTO THE FAR  
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A MOIST ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT  
PERSISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING ATOP THE COOL  
SURFACE AIRMASS AND ASCENT IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO  
MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS ARE ENCOMPASSING AN AREA EXTENDING FROM EAST  
TX THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN LA, CENTRAL MS AND CENTRAL AL,  
INCLUDING FAR NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA LATE THIS EVENING.  
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD OUR  
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT RANGE  
AND HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH  
BRINGING WIDESPREAD 1-2" OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF OUR INTERIOR THROUGH  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME  
LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3", ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A WAYNESBORO  
TO LUVERNE LINE. SOILS REMAIN SATURATED OVER THESE AREAS, WITH  
ONGOING SIGNIFICANT RIVER FLOODING ALONG THE TOMBIGBEE AND ALABAMA  
RIVERS. THE LATEST GRIDDED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OVER THESE  
INTERIOR AREAS HAS ALSO BEEN REDUCED TO 2-3" OVER A 6 HOUR PERIOD.  
CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS, WE HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD  
WATCH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LINE THROUGH  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD  
RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS AND URBAN AREAS AS WELL AS  
WORSEN FLOODING ALONG RIVERS, CREEKS, AND STREAMS.  
 
RAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER IN COVERAGE FROM NORTHWEST TO  
SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY EVENING, BEFORE  
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A MUCH  
DRIER AIRMASS RETURNS WITHIN ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONING  
NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS FROM THE  
CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY TO THE TN/MS RIVER  
VALLEYS AND ADJACENT GULF COAST STATES INTO FRIDAY. HIGHS WERE  
GENERALLY TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY  
CONSIDERING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY, AND MAY  
ONLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AT BEST OVER INTERIOR AREAS,  
AND PERHAPS HAVING A CHANCE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S  
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT RANGE  
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTHWEST OF I-65 AND IN THE UPPER 30S TO  
LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ONLY RANGE IN THE UPPER 40S  
TO LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS DESPITE DECREASING CLOUDS. /21  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
06Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO LOCALIZED LIFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS  
THE REGION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD  
RAIN SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE NEAR THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. /21  
 

 
   
EXTENDED TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
THE EXTENDED TERM  
WILL BEGIN AS AN UPPER LEVEL, SOUTHERN-STREAM TROUGH MOVES OFF  
OVER THE ATLANTIC AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO ADVANCE OVER  
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MUCH OF  
THE WEEKEND, BUT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN  
CONUS EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND THEN  
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES  
WILL THEN MOVE ALONG THE FLOW INTO MIDWEEK. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THROUGH SATURDAY. BY EARLY SUNDAY,  
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. BY MONDAY, THIS LOW  
WILL PROGRESS OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH A WARM FRONT  
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND A COLD FRONT DRAPED OVER THE  
ARKLATEX REGION. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY  
MORNING. COLD FROPA IS THEN EXPECTED OVER OUR AREA BY TUESDAY  
MORNING. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH  
THE AREA INTO MIDWEEK.  
 
FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER, DRY AND CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE STORY  
THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN ONCE AGAIN BY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON, WITH BETTER CHANCES LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AT THIS  
TIME, DID NOT MENTION THUNDER ON MONDAY DUE TO LITTLE TO NO  
INSTABILITY SHOWN BY MODEL GUIDANCE; BUT, THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE  
MONITORED. A CONTINUED UNSETTLED PATTERN IS LIKELY TO THEN  
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED TERM.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT CHILLY, BUT WARM TO BE MORE SEASONAL  
BY TUESDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY,  
WITH GRADUAL WARMING TO MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS  
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOWER TO MID 30S NEAR  
THE COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY EARLY NEXT  
WEEK, LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. /26  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 58 36 53 33 58 38 64 52 / 100 20 0 0 0 0 30 50  
PENSACOLA 65 39 53 36 57 42 62 54 / 90 30 0 0 0 0 30 50  
DESTIN 67 42 53 38 56 43 61 55 / 90 40 0 0 0 0 20 40  
EVERGREEN 59 36 53 29 59 35 63 47 / 100 20 0 0 0 0 40 70  
WAYNESBORO 53 32 49 28 57 34 62 48 / 100 10 0 0 0 0 40 70  
CAMDEN 54 33 50 29 58 35 62 47 / 100 20 0 0 0 0 40 70  
CRESTVIEW 65 40 53 32 58 35 64 50 / 100 30 0 0 0 0 30 50  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>055-057-058.  
 
FL...NONE.  
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067.  
 
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR  
GMZ650-655.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR  
GMZ630>632.  
 
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY  
NIGHT FOR GMZ670-675.  
 

 
 

 
 
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