942
FXUS64 KMOB 272016
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
316 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING WILL OCCUR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY FOR
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
THERE IS A PATTERN CHANGE ON THE HORIZON BUT OVERALL IT WILL NOT
AFFECT OUR HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR EAST MARRIES UP WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO FORM AN ELONGATED
RIDGE FROM FLORIDA TO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA BY NOON THURSDAY. THE
RIDGE AXIS CLIPS EASTERN AND NORTHERN ALABAMA SO WE SHOULD SEE
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA
ZONES ON THURSDAY, BUT NUMEROUS COVERAGE IS STILL EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. AS QUICKLY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IT BREAKS DOWN THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS IS
REINFORCED BY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH OVER EASTERN CANADA.
THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST IS FINALLY ABLE TO BREAK ITS GRIP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EJECT EASTWARD OVER MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA ON FRIDAY. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
SHIFT ZONAL OVER OUR AREA AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST. AFTER A BRIEF
SHIFT BACK TO ZONAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A MORE ESTABLISHED
NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AS A THIRD SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND CARVES OUT A LARGER TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL NOT HAVE AN AFFECT
OUR HIGH RAIN CHANCES AS A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF UPPER SHORTWAVES
AND IMPULSES MOVE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN NUMEROUS TO AT
TIMES WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NORTH OF I-10. SCATTERED TO OCCASIONAL NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-10. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
DECREASING STABILITY FROM DIURNAL HEATING. AS MENTIONED ON THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN IS CAPABLE OF
ADVECTING IN A ANY ORGANIZED MCS'S INTO OUR AREA IF STORMS DEVELOP
UPSTREAM, AND WE WILL NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THAT.
BEACH FORECAST - THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BEACHES DUE TO A PERSISTENT ONSHORE WIND AND UNSETTLED SEA STATE.
OFFSHORE STORMS WILL ONLY ACT TO AMPLIFY THE SURF AND RIP CURRENTS
EACH DAY. /22
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISBYS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS WITH MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE STORMS. RAIN SHOULD SUBSIDE ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AND A PERIOD OF IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS COULD
BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TOMORROW. BEST CHANCES
FOR IFR TO LIFR WILL BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-10 WITH MAINLY IFR TO
MVFR CEILINGS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT
OF THE SOUTH TODAY BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND 3 FEET THROUGH THURSDAY AND AROUND 2 FEET FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 84 71 85 70 / 60 30 60 20
PENSACOLA 83 73 84 73 / 60 30 60 10
DESTIN 83 73 84 73 / 60 30 50 20
EVERGREEN 84 69 86 69 / 80 20 50 20
WAYNESBORO 85 70 84 69 / 70 20 60 30
CAMDEN 84 68 84 68 / 80 20 50 30
CRESTVIEW 85 69 87 69 / 60 20 60 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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