484
FXUS64 KMOB 130543
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1243 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WITH MANY AREAS STILL WITHOUT POWER AND
RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS ONGOING, THESE
TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AND WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH, AS WELL AS
A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE (PWATS BETWEEN 0.7 AND 1.0 INCH) WILL GIVE
WAY TO SUNNY SKIES, VERY WARM HIGHS, AND COOL LOWS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S (POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW MID 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW OVER
INTERIOR COUNTIES). SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, THESE
TEMPERATURES MAY GET CLOSE TO OUR DAILY RECORD HIGHS OVER THE
COMING DAYS. HERE ARE THE FORECAST HIGHS AND CURRENT RECORDS FOR
TODAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY FOR MOBILE AND PENSACOLA:
TUESDAY (10/13):
MOBILE 91, RECORD 92
PENSACOLA 88, RECORD 90
WEDNESDAY (10/14):
MOBILE 89, RECORD 90
PENSACOLA 87, RECORD 89
THURSDAY (10/15):
MOBILE 88, RECORD 89
PENSACOLA 87, RECORD 89
THE GOOD NEWS IS, THAT HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S AND 60S. THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE STILL MANY LOCATIONS
WITHOUT POWER DUE TO HURRICANE ISAIAS. THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TO PROVIDE
RELIEF FROM THE SUN, COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES. EVERYONE PART OF THE RECOVERY PROCESS IS URGED
TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER,
ESPECIALLY IF ENGAGING IN STRENUOUS ACTIVITY. LOWS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INLAND TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AT NIGHT, CALM WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES
MAY HELP TO PROMOTE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EACH MORNING THIS WEEK.
BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, UPPER TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST US. AS THIS OCCURS, AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. BEHIND IT, A MUCH
COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD START TO MODERATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT RCMOS PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE RIP CURRENT RISK
MAY INCREASE TO A MODERATE RISK SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND EVENTUALLY
A HIGH RISK BY SATURDAY NIGHT. /96
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
PATCHY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD CLEAR BY 1300Z TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, BUT WE DO
EXPECT EARLY EVENING FOG TO DEVELOP FOR THE JKA SITE. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A SEA
BREEZE. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
A DIURNAL FLOW CYCLE WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN
BECOMING ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING MAY
BECOME NECESSARY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 90 63 90 62 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 89 65 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 87 67 86 69 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 93 59 91 60 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 92 60 93 59 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 91 59 92 60 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 92 61 91 62 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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