994
FXUS64 KMOB 101746
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1246 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
- HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 RANGE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING
108-110.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY, INCREASING TO NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD BY SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL RETURN FOR ALL AREA
BEACHES TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MM/25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL OCCUR TODAY AND
SATURDAY AS WE POTENTIALLY START OFF WITH AN EARLY MORNING
SHOWER/STORM OR TWO ALONG THE COAST NEAR AN AREA OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE. THIS CONVECTION WILL THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS A SEABREEZE ENSUES. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WE
ARE EXPECTING A 20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG THE SEABREEZE. RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT HIGHER ON SATURDAY INTO THE 30-40% RANGE
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-10 DUE TO A SLIGHT BUMP-UP IN PWATS TO AROUND
2 INCHES.
WE THEN SHIFT TO A MUCH WETTER PATTERN SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXITS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND OHIO RIVER SATURDAY NIGHT. AS THIS TROUGH
NEARLY STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON SUNDAY, A CUTOFF UPPER
LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER TENNESSEE AND THEN
RETROGRADE WESTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
UNDER A LARGE UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.S.
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH/CUTOFF LOW, A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA/BOUNDARY REFLECTED IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO 2.25", NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE INLAND
AREAS. A HIGHER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL OCCUR ON MONDAY WITH DEFINITE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE WPC HAS OUR AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON MONDAY FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA. LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE
REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL AVERAGE JUST ABOVE
NORMAL, RANGING FROM 90-95 DEGREES. LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 4 TO 9
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH MIDDLE 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S ALONG
THE COAST. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS MOSTLY RANGING FROM 73 TO 77
DEGREES, MAXIMUM APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) SHOULD RANGE
FROM 100-107 DEGREES WITH ISOLATED SHORT DURATION INSTANCES AS
HIGH AS 110 DEGREES. COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE AN
RAIN CHANCES. /22
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS GENERALLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 131 AM CDT FRI JUL 10 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS THROUGH SUNDAY, BECOMING MAINLY WESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY, BUILDING TO 2
TO 3 FEET FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 93 75 92 / 10 30 10 80
PENSACOLA 81 92 79 92 / 10 30 20 70
DESTIN 82 90 80 89 / 10 30 20 50
EVERGREEN 74 93 73 90 / 10 40 20 80
WAYNESBORO 75 95 74 91 / 10 40 20 80
CAMDEN 75 92 74 88 / 10 40 30 80
CRESTVIEW 75 95 75 92 / 10 40 20 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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