875
FXUS64 KMOB 220651
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
151 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 151 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
- TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL IMMEDIATE COASTAL
ZONES, NEARSHORE WATERS, AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL
THURSDAY MORNING FOR ALL COASTAL AREAS.
- DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE PERIOD IS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH AND IS LOCATED ABOUT 80 MILES
SOUTH OF MOBILE. IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING WEST AT 6 MPH PARALLEL TO
THE GULF COAST WITH THE CENTER STAYING IN OUR OFFSHORE WATERS.
CURRENT WAVE HEIGHTS ARE 9.2 FEET SOUTH OF ORANGE BEACH (BUOY
42012).
..THROUGH THURSDAY
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE JUST BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD, BUT
STILL VERY WARM PEAKING AT 107. THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA WILL
HAVE MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. ANYBODY OUTDOORS SHOULD
DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE BREAKS IN A/C WHEN POSSIBLE.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LAND ZONES ON THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND NEARSHORE/OFFSHORE WATERS OF ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA. OUR MAIN IMPACTS WITH BERTHA ARE GUSTY WINDS,
INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, AND AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.
INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH
HIGH TIDE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY
FOR ALL AREA COASTAL AREAS AND BAYS. MINOR FLOODING OF 1-3 FEET
ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND IS EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FOR VULNERABLE
LOW LYING AREAS AND TYPICAL TROUBLE SPOTS LIKE DAUPHIN ISLAND AND
FORT PICKENS.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM WITH STORM TOTALS OF 1-2" WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING UP
TO 4". THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE JUST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND MAINLY OFFSHORE. OUR MOISTURE CONTENT REMAINS
ELEVATED WITH PWATS OF 2.3-2.4" WHICH INTRODUCES ENHANCED RAIN
RATES, BUT NOTHING MORE THAN VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING IS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENT.
..FRIDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK
AFTER BERTHA DEPARTS TO THE WEST, WE ARE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE UNDER GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS BRINGS RAIN CHANCES
TO A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. WE SWITCH INTO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BETWEEN THE
RIDGE TO THE WEST AND THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN US.
THIS COULD BRING ORGANIZED CONVECTION DOWN INTO OUR AREA, SO THIS IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT HEADLINES COULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE.
..BEACH FORECAST
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIP CURRENT RISK HIGH FOR OUR ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA BEACHES AND WILL LAST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE DROPPING TO
MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS SURF PEAKING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY BEGINNING TO TAPER OFF. A
HIGH SURF WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SURF HEIGHTS UP TO 8-12 FEET
THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY FOR ALL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BEACHES.
SS/97
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
LOWER CEILINGS AND VISBYS CAN BE EXPECTED AS BANDS FROM TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA ROTATE WESTWARD ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS CAN
BE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY IN THE RAIN BANDS. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 151 AM CDT WED JUL 22 2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 MILES SOUTH OF
MOBILE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH AND MOVING WEST AT 6
MPH. WAVES WITH THIS SYSTEM PEAK AROUND 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE
IMPACTING THE GULF WATERS AND WILL DECREASE TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
WINDS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AFTER THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS BEGIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SS/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 89 77 90 76 / 80 40 50 10
PENSACOLA 88 80 90 78 / 80 40 30 0
DESTIN 88 81 89 79 / 70 20 20 0
EVERGREEN 90 74 91 73 / 50 20 30 0
WAYNESBORO 93 76 91 73 / 40 20 50 20
CAMDEN 89 75 89 74 / 50 10 40 20
CRESTVIEW 89 76 91 73 / 70 20 20 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ263>266.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
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