407
FXUS64 KMOB 171857
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
157 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
- STRONG WIND GUSTS TO POSE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
SATURDAY.
- THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES ON SATURDAY. THIS
DANGER IS HIGH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
- DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. IN ADDITION, A HIGH RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS RETURN TO AREA BEACHES FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A DEEP, UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR
THE EAST COAST MOVES OFFSHORE AND ORGANIZES INTO A CLOSED SYSTEM
(READ NOR'EASTER) NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS SHIFTS EAST, TO OVER/NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND BUILDS,
WITH THE EAST COAST SYSTEM LIMITING ANY FURTHER EASTWARD MOVEMENT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE MEAN
UPPER TROUGH TRAILING SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST, BUT WITH A DRY
AIRMASS OVER MOST OF THE REGION, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. AN
ITEM TO WATCH IS SOME GUIDANCE ADVERTISING A SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE 850-700MB LAYER EARLY IN THE COMING
WEEK, BRINGING INCREASE MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN
THE MONDAY TIME FRAME AND AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE
WEEK. NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED
INTO THE COMING WEEK, HELPING TO TEMPER ANY MOISTURE RETURN OVER
MOST OF THE LAND PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
A COLD AIRMASS THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS DROPPED
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A RISE IN THE COMING WEEK, WITH AROUND 70 TO
LOW 70S SUNDAY RISING TO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 BY TUESDAY, WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
GOVERNED BY THE DRY AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT NIGHTTIME
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND THE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO
BRING COOLER AIR SOUTHWEST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY CONTINUING TO DIVE INTO THE EAST COAST UPPER
TROUGH. THE CONTENTION BETWEEN MISSISSIPPI RIVER RIDGE AND EAST
COAST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE AROUND 80 EAST TO AROUND 85 WEST RANGE
THROUGH THE WEEK. GUIDANCE IS LOW TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT REMAINING BELOW OR NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP RISK ON AREA BEACHES, A MODERATE RISK IS
EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A HIGH RISK AS NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE
GULF TRANSITION TO NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY AND REMAIN STRONG OVER THE
GULF.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS DIMINISH BY THIS EVENING,
WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW 5-10 KNOTS FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY
MORNING. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY OVER PROTECTED WATERS, STRONG NORTHEAST TO
EASTERLY OVER OPEN GULF WATERS. THE CURRENT GALES OVER MARINE WATERS
WILL TRANSITION TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS OVER
OPEN GULF WATERS WILL MEAN AN SC.Y OR SCEC OVER OPEN GULF WATERS
INTO MID WEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 51 71 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 55 71 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 57 71 55 74 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 48 70 46 72 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 46 71 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 46 68 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 50 69 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ630>636-650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY
FOR GMZ650-655.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ670-675.
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