976
FXUS64 KMOB 101145
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
645 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 645 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.
- HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-107 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY, INCREASING MID WEEK ON.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RETURNS TO FLORIDA BEACHES
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
COAST THIS MORNING SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTERNOON, AND ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM 90-95 DEGREES WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING TO 100-107 DEGREES.
/22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA SHIFTS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A WEAKLY
ORGANIZED SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF/GULF
COAST, WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW SHIFTING TO SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
STARTING IN THE 2.0"-2.2" RANGE. EVEN WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER
RIDGE, WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY TO FORM OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE FORECAST PROGRESSES INTO MID WEEK,
ALTERNATING BANDS OF DRIER AIR WILL PASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHIFTING UPPER
RIDGE, POPS ARE INCONSISTENT, WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION TUESDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER LAND AREAS. LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF, WITH WARM GULF WATERS PROVIDING GOOD NEAR SURFACE
INSTABILITY. PULSE TYPE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH MLCAPES IN THE 2000-2500J/KG RANGE
AND DCAPES AROUND 1000J/KG.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE PASSES OVER/NEAR THE FORECAST AREA INTO MID
WEEK, THE INCREASING UPPER SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES
INCREASINGLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY WEDNESDAY. HEAT INDICES RISE IN
RESPONSE, FROM THE 100-107 DEGREE RANGE MONDAY INTO THE 102 TO 110
DEGREE RANGE WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH AN INCREASING NEED FOR HEAT
ADVISORIES INTO MID WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES RISE FROM THE LOW TO
MID 70S MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG COAST CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE UPPER 70S TO
NEAR 80 THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THURSDAY ON, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST MEANDERS
SLOWLY WEST AND BUILDS A BIT. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 95
TO 100 DEGREE RANGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HEAT INDICES
CREEPING UP A BIT IN RESPONSE. POPS SEE A BIT OF AN UPTICK INTO
THE WEEKEND, BUT WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER/NEAR THE FORECAST AREA
AND MOISTURE LEVELS INCONSISTENT, THIS UPTICK IS SMALL, AND POPS
REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, A GENERAL
LOW RISK IS EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK, WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW LESS
ORGANIZED. AN UPTICK TO A LOW MODERATE IS INDICATED FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR FLORIDA BEACHES. /16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR
CEILINGS, BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES, AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE STRONGER STORMS. WINDS FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL
START OFF CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING AS A SEA-BREEZE PUSHES
INLAND. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 91 75 92 75 / 40 0 20 0
PENSACOLA 90 78 91 79 / 40 10 20 0
DESTIN 89 79 90 80 / 20 0 10 0
EVERGREEN 93 73 94 74 / 30 10 20 10
WAYNESBORO 95 74 96 74 / 30 10 20 10
CAMDEN 92 74 92 75 / 30 10 20 10
CRESTVIEW 93 73 94 74 / 30 0 20 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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