727
FXUS64 KMOB 241801
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
101 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
- SUMMERTIME HEAT RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HEAT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
24.12Z UPPER AIR MAPS SHOW THE AXIS OF A MID TO HIGH LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MX ACROSS THE LOWER 4 CORNERS OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE NOSE OF THIS FEATURE IS ORIENTED SOUTHEAST TO THE
GULF. ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, RESIDES AN ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW AT HIGH LEVELS OF WHICH IS EMBEDDED A COUPLE OF
NOTABLE CONVECTIVE FEATURES. THE FIRST AND CLOSEST TO THE LOCAL
AREA IS SINKING SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHWEST MS AND A SECOND, MORE
POTENT COMPLEX WITH CONCENTRATED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WAS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER EAST OK/WESTERN AR. THE FIRST FEATURE WILL LIKELY
SEE A MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL ENERGY BEING THE
SOURCE OF FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE INITIATION AS IT SINKS
SOUTHEAST INTO A WARM, MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST. MESOANALYSIS ON THE PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT FROM
LATE AM SHOWS THE BEST INSTABILITY/DEEP LAYER MOISTURE GRADIENTS
(SBCAPE'S 2000- 4000 J/KG)(PWAT'S: 1.6 TO 2.0") ORIENTED FROM
SOUTHERN MS, WESTWARD ACROSS LA. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME, THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A WINDOW FOR A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN 0-3KM SHEAR TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND
POTENTIALLY A LITTLE MORE ROBUST OUTFLOW DRIVEN SYSTEM OR CLUSTER
OF STORMS WHICH IS SUPPORTED IN THE LATEST CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS (CAM'S) AND SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES. DEVELOPMENT OF AND
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING CLUSTERS OF STORMS, A FEW OF WHICH COULD
BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS IS ADVERTISED IN THE NEAR TERM. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER (SPC) HAS INCLUDED THE AREA, GENERALLY WEST OF A
GREENVILLE AL TO PENSACOLA FL LINE, IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THROUGH TONIGHT. A SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE
DAY THURSDAY TOO.
DUE TO RECENT EXCESSIVE RAINS, ESPECIALLY IN THE HARDEST HIT
AREAS, ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS AND LOW FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE ARE SUCH THAT ANY HEAVY RAINS FROM STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO RUNOFF AND FLOODING ISSUES OVER PROBLEM
LOWER LYING AND URBANIZED AREAS SUBJECT TO POOR DRAIN OFF OF STORM
WATER. CONSIDERING THIS, A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS
OUTLOOKED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, UPPER RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US. LARGE SCALE COMPRESSIONAL SINKING WILL
RESULT IN TWO OUTCOMES: ONE, A DECREASE IN STORM CHANCES AND
SECONDLY A RISE IN TEMPERATURES. HEAT INDICES LOOK TO CLIMB INTO
THE TRIPLE DIGITS AREA-WIDE BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS HEATING UP
INTO LOWER/MID 90'S. THE LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST SUGGESTS HEAT
PRODUCTS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA THE START OF
NEXT WEEK AS HEAT INDICES MOVE INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA 108-112 THEN.
/10
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL SEE LOCAL DROPS TO LOW END MVFR AS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A SHORT RESPITE
THIS EVENING, ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AM, DROPPING VFR/UPPER MVFR
CONDITIONS TO LOWER END MVFR/IFR. /16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
MARINERS ARE URGED TO STAY WEATHER AWARE IN THE NEAR TERM FOR
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT SPREAD SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OFF THE
COAST. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS
PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS, LOCALLY HIGHER WAVES/SEAS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCING HEAVY RAINS. AWAY FROM
STORMS, A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT STRADDLES THE COAST BRINGING
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK UP TO THE
NORTH THURSDAY AND DISSIPATES AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED FROM HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS 2
FEET OR LESS. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 88 74 90 / 60 70 10 10
PENSACOLA 75 87 77 90 / 60 70 50 20
DESTIN 75 86 77 88 / 30 60 50 20
EVERGREEN 69 85 71 90 / 80 60 30 40
WAYNESBORO 70 88 72 93 / 70 40 10 10
CAMDEN 69 84 71 89 / 70 40 20 30
CRESTVIEW 71 86 72 90 / 40 80 50 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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