675
FXUS64 KMOB 162327
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
627 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS EARLY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS. HEAT INDICES WILL
CLIMB INTO LOW TO MID 90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
FORECAST ON TRACK. MM/25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM/HUMID FORECAST IS IN
STORE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE GULF AND UP ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. WHILE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY
INCREASING MOISTURE VALUES, THE 12Z LIX SOUNDING SHOWED AN
EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS BELOW 500 MB. THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO
MOISTEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION.
GUIDANCE INDICATES THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LOCALIZED MOISTURE
INCREASE TO SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS THE
FAR WESTERN AND EASTERN AREAS MON/TUE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, THE
REBOUNDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY FOG OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS,
STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN FACT, THE PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITES LESS THAN A HALF
MILE HAVE TRENDED HIGHER (NOW 30-50%) ON THE LATEST HREF FOR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW-MID 90 RANGE BY MON-
TUE, A SIGN THAT SUMMER IS LURKING.
THE SOUTHEAST UPPER RIDGING WILL WEAKEN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IN SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGIN TO HAVE MORE OF AN
INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. AS A RESULT, DAILY CHANCES OF AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THE BEST CHANCES WILL
BE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA, WITH LOCATIONS
FURTHER EAST HAVING SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES DUE TO MORE OF AN
INFLUENCE OF THE RESIDUAL UPPER RIDGING. THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES
ALSO SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS THE PROBABILITIES OF SEEING WIDESPREAD
RAIN TOTALS OF GREATER THAN 1" THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY RANGE FROM
50-60% IN THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES TO ONLY AROUND 10% IN THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. TRENDS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEAST
RIDGING WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AS THAT WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE
WHICH AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ADDITIONAL
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. 34/JFB
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FEW PATCHES OF FOG COULD LOCALLY DEVELOP TONIGHT, MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR, TEMPORARILY REDUCING FLIGHT CATEGORY AT TIMES
THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY, RELAXING TO
LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SAT MAY 16 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WILL BUILD
TO AROUND 3 FEET BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. 34/JFB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 61 85 68 86 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 66 83 71 84 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 69 82 71 83 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 59 89 63 89 / 0 0 0 20
WAYNESBORO 59 87 64 88 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 61 88 63 88 / 0 0 0 10
CRESTVIEW 59 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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