413
FXUS64 KMOB 070420
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
- TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST ON FRIDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BRING HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH WINDS TO THE AREA.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. A SURF ADVISORY MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY AS SURF
HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FEET.
- MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON FRIDAY AS A HURRICANE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. PER THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, THE
FORECAST CONE FOR TD NINE EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
TO ROUGHLY NEAR DESTIN, FLORIDA, WITH A LANDFALL ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS WITHIN THE
FORECAST CONE, THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND AND SURGE IMPACTS DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SURF HEIGHT VALUES BUILD
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURF HEIGHTS OF
10+ FEET FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING. FOR
FRIDAY, WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND A SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE, THEN A SLIGHT RISK FOLLOWS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP, MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THOUGH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM
NWS MOBILE AND FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CHANCE, THEN DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR
TUESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
GENERAL VFR WITH LOCAL UPPER MVFR CONDITIONS OVER OUR COASTAL
COUNTIES WILL SEE A SMALL DROP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH
MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS (AROUND 10 KNOTS) EASING A BIT. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR NORTH OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES,
WITH WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. A STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY
SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS
OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES (AND AREA TAF SITES) WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN GENERALLY VFR FORECAST AREA WIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. SEAS INCREASE TO 4 TO 8 FEET CREATING ROUGH CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE-
WEEK. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GULF.
/13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 66 86 66 85 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 69 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 69 84 70 84 / 10 10 0 10
EVERGREEN 61 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 61 87 61 87 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 59 87 58 87 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 63 84 63 83 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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