956
FXUS64 KMOB 220545
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1245 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1241 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
- AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20% ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED WILDFIRE CONCERNS.
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FROM LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
- DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND. A
HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR, WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THE FRONT'S PASSAGE, A COOLER AND MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY
ANCHORING ITSELF OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE WEEK. NO RAIN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY THIS WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY OF THIS SHORTWAVE,
GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DIFFLUENT,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID
TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES
STARTING LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. AS OF
RIGHT NOW, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE QUESTIONS THE QUALITY OF THE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, LIKELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS; CREATING A BIT OF A
COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. DEW POINTS GENERALLY HAVE A MEDIUM
CHANCE (GENERALLY 30-60%) OF REMAINING BELOW 65 DEGREES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, SUGGESTING THAT THE WARM FRONT MAY
STRUGGLE TO COME ASHORE. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR LOCAL AREA UNDERNEATH
A COOLER AIRMASS WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO MORE OF AN
OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT. IF, HOWEVER, MODELS BEGIN TO TREND MORE
TOWARDS A WEAKER HIGH/FURTHER NORTH WARM FRONT SOLUTION, THEN WE
COULD SEE A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN, ALONG WITH A LOW-END
SEVERE POTENTIAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S. HIGHS LOWER INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN
THE MID 70S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 40S, WITH LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS FALL
BACK INTO THE 50S BY NEXT WEEK. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO MODERATE RISK ON FRIDAY. A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY FOR THIS WEEKEND AS SURF
HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 4-6 FEET. /96
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW A SMALL BAND OF MVFR TO
POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE
CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO LEADING TO VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS A
NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025
A MODERATE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME PREVALENT
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS MORNING. AFTER WINDS BRIEFLY
WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT, A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR
THE GULF WATERS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 78 49 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 79 54 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 81 57 80 58 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 79 42 82 45 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 76 44 80 46 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 76 45 80 45 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 79 43 81 44 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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