156
FXUS64 KMOB 262327
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
627 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 617 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL STEADILY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THIS WEEKEND. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- SUMMER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT
AT AROUND 100-107 DEGREES EACH DAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
A FEW RESIDUAL RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX MOVING
TOWARDS CHOCTAW/CLARKE COUNTIES. WITH THE LOSS THE DAY'S HEATING,
ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS CONVECTION, AM EXPECTING THE COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH TO DECREASE. THE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ACCOUNTED FOR IN
THE FORECAST. NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY THROUGH THE DAY AND DIG
SOUTHWARD AS A RIDGE TO OUR WEST RETROGRADES. THIS WILL PLACE THE
FORECAST AREA UNDER STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, ENHANCING THE FORCING OVER THE
AREA. GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS, PWS NEAR 2 INCHES, THIS FORCING
WILL AID IN AFTERNOON CONVECTION, WHICH WE'RE STARTING TO SEE OVER
OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP STRONG ENOUGH
UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, TEMPS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVERNIGHT, WHILE SURFACE FLOW
REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK. MEANWHILE, A CLUSTER OF STORMS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WILL LIKELY SPARK ADDITIONAL OUTFLOWS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON THESE BOUNDARIES
AND DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE
FORCING ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE REGION, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, REACHING OUR NORTHERN ZONES EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THERE ARE A LOT OF DISCREPANCIES ON TIMING AND
LOCATION, BUT THERE'S ENOUGH CONSENSUS TO WARRANT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS POPS BEGINNING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AN INVERSION
OVERNIGHT MAY ALLEVIATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY OF THESE STORMS
BECOMING SEVERE; HOWEVER, I'M NOT TOO CONFIDENT THAT WE WILL COOL
AS MUCH AS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. SO, ALL OF THAT IS TO SAY
WE'LL LIKELY BEGIN TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NEAR SUNRISE,
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA OR IF RAINFALL
RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH, SOME FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF PRECIP WILL COME TO AN END THURSDAY EVENING, A
BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE AREA, THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON EXACTLY WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS. THE
TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AT THIS POINT,
THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST/SOUTH OF
I-65. THIS MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, AS WE GAIN MORE
CLARITY ON WHERE THE BOUNDARY STALLS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST PUSHES EAST AND THE
TROUGH EXITS THE AREA. /73
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
A FEW RESIDUAL RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A MORE ORGANIZED COMPLEX MOVING
TOWARDS CHOCTAW/CLARKE COUNTIES. WITH THE LOSS THE DAY'S HEATING,
ALONG WITH THE PREVIOUS CONVECTION, AM EXPECTING THE COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH TO DECREASE. THE COMPLEX MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CAN BRING LOCAL DROPS IN CONDITIONS TO
MID MVFR LEVELS ALONG WITH LOCALLY STRONG AND VARIABLE WINDS. THIS
COMPLEX HAS A LOW CHANCE OF AFFECTING AREA TAF SITES. THE
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING, THEN REDEVELOP INLAND IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /73
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 90 72 91 / 20 70 40 60
PENSACOLA 77 89 75 88 / 30 70 60 60
DESTIN 78 88 76 87 / 30 60 60 70
EVERGREEN 71 92 70 91 / 20 70 30 70
WAYNESBORO 72 93 71 94 / 60 70 50 50
CAMDEN 73 91 71 91 / 40 60 40 50
CRESTVIEW 72 91 70 90 / 30 80 30 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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