549
FXUS64 KMOB 080913
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
413 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 413 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY WITH SCATTERED
TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS ON SUNDAY.
- HEAT INDICES AROUND 100-107 DEGREES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY DEVELOP AT AREA BEACHES
TODAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
THE AREA IS VERY MUCH UNDER A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS WITH ONE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THE OTHER OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN US. THIS
LEAVES US UNDER GENERALLY WEAK SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST. PWAT
VALUES HAVE CLIMBED TO ~1.85" WHICH IS CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
FOR SATURDAY, WE ONCE AGAIN HAVE HIGH DCAPE OF ~1000 J/KG AND LOW
SHEAR WHICH LEADS TO PULSE LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LIGHTNING,
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. THE BERMUDA HIGH OFF TO THE EAST WILL FURTHER BUILD
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. PWAT VALUES WILL
FURTHER INCREASE TO REACH TO ~2.0-2.1" BY SUNDAY INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WHICH IS MUCH MORE TYPICAL/SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE. THIS COINCIDES WITH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS THE
RIDGE MOVES FURTHER OVERHEAD NEXT WEEK, PWATS AND POPS DECREASE.
EXPECT THE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES
FOCUSED ALONG THE LAND BREEZE OVER MARINE WATERS IN THE MORNING
WHICH TRANSITIONS INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND ALONG ANY OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EACH AFTERNOON. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EACH NIGHT WITH
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY
BE WITHIN THE 100-107 RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND THE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD AREAS EXCEEDING
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
..BEACH FORECAST
THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS LOW FOR ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO A MODERATE RISK FOR SATURDAY. OUTSIDE
OF ANY STORMS, SURF HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 1-2 FEET THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK.
SS/97
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL INCREASE
THIS MORNING TO 5-10 KNOTS AND PREVAIL GENERALLY SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WITH PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO POTENTIALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST. THESE ARE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER WIND
GUSTS AND DROPS OF CIGS/VIS TO MVFR AND EVEN LOCALLY IFR WITHIN
THE STRONGEST STORMS. SS/97
MARINE
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS OVER THE WEEKEND AS A
WEAKLY ORGANIZED RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. A
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY EVENING AS A STRONGER
RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF, AND CONTINUES
THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL THAN SHIFT TO LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BY
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS WESTWARD. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 93 73 91 74 / 20 20 40 10
PENSACOLA 93 77 89 78 / 20 10 40 10
DESTIN 91 78 88 79 / 20 20 30 10
EVERGREEN 94 73 93 72 / 20 20 40 10
WAYNESBORO 95 73 95 73 / 20 20 40 10
CAMDEN 92 73 91 73 / 20 10 40 10
CRESTVIEW 94 73 92 73 / 20 20 60 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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