412
FXUS64 KMOB 021836
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1236 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY.
- LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AT AREA BEACHES TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN AS WE GO INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT DUE TO A COMBINATION OF A SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE THAT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LIGHT WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS, HOWEVER, THEY
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. STRONGER FORCING
WILL ARRIVE BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS THE POSITIVE TILT SHORTWAVE
ARRIVES. HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES LIKELY STAYING AT OR BELOW 1.25". THIS
IS LARGELY DUE TO SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE PROHIBITING MORE SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE RETURN.
GUIDANCE IN GENERAL HAS TRENDED DOWN IN TERMS OF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, WITH MOST CAMS VERY DRY OVERALL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION, STILL EXPECT TO SEE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING INTO EARLY/MID SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW MLCAPES TO
RISE TO 1000-1500 J/KG BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65. 0-6KM SHEAR OF 45-50 KT WILL ALSO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE AFOREMENTIONED
LACK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL
LIKELY INHIBIT OVERALL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE STILL CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM EAST OF
I-65, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL AL AND FL PANHANDLE DURING THE
LATE MORNING TO AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE OVERALL VEERED WIND
PROFILES, THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND PERHAPS AN INSTANCE OF LARGE HAIL.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING, BRINGING AN END TO THE PRECIP CHANCES AND THE RETURN
TO SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. 34/JFB
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE AT ISSUANCE TIME AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME AREAS, MAINLY OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES, MAY
SEE SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES WITH THIS ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO MVFR BY THE MID- EVENING HOURS, POTENTIALLY FALLING TO IFR
BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD
ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE BY AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW, MAINLY FOR AREAS
EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES
IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND 5-10 KNOTS INLAND AND AROUND 10-15 KNOTS CLOSER TO THE
COAST. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING INTO SATURDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS AND MOBILE BAY FOR TONIGHT, WITH THE ADVISORY
CONTINUING FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE OFFSHORE FLOW DIMINISHES
ON SUNDAY AND TRANSITIONS TO A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. 34/JFB
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 9 PM CST THIS EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST SATURDAY
FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
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