242
FXUS64 KMOB 021754
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1254 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
- A FEW WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- HEAT INDICES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 100 TO 107 RANGE FOR THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
A STOUT LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS FROM THE
OH/TN VALLEY, EASTWARD TO ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC. AN ASSESSMENT OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOWS PWAT'S HAVE LOWERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. WITH WESTERN NOSE OF < 1.50" VALUES EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN
AL TO THE NORTHWEST FL PANHANDLE. THERE REMAINS A SMALL POP WEST OF
THESE AREAS TODAY WHERE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS BETTER AT 1.5 TO 1.9"
AND INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE HIGHER. THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE
NORTH BEGINS TO SHOW SIGNS OF BREAKING DOWN BY THE START OF THE JULY
4TH HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE CLOSE
BY, CHANCES OF AND AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION TO BE SUPPRESSED
IS MORE FAVORED. EVEN SO, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OVER-ACHIEVING
STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTAIN BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS,
CONCENTRATED FREQUENT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THE
NEXT COUPLE DAYS. A SIMILAR PATTERN ALOFT EXISTS AS WE MOVE INTO THE
4TH OF JULY WEEKEND WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERING (PWAT'S 1.60
TO 1.80"). THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY RESULTS IN
IMPROVED RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ANY MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. THE
HEIGHT FIELD ALOFT WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE
PATTERN SETS UP WITH MODEST CHANCES OF DAILY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
HOT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHS OVER THE
INTERIOR 92 TO 97, 89 TO 93 AT THE COAST THROUGH SATURDAY AND A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE EARLY JULY NORMAL. GRIDDED HIGHS REFLECT LOWER TO MID
90'S INTERIOR AND 89 TO 91 COAST INTO NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES
CONTINUE TO BE 100-107 FOR MOST OF THE AREA. EVEN WITH HEAT INDICES
BEING JUST UNDER OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108, IT IS STILL VERY
UNCOMFORTABLE OUTSIDE. MAY NEED HEAT PRODUCTS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MORE OF A WIDESPREAD AREA COULD BE IMPACTED BY HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA (108-112 HEAT INDEX) VALUES THEN. THERE WILL BE LITTLE
OVERNIGHT RELIEF WITH LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT ONLY REACHING THE
MID 70'S ON AVERAGE. SOME LOWS ALONG THE COAST POSSIBLY AROUND
80. ANYBODY OUTDOORS SHOULD DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE BREAKS
IN A/C WHEN POSSIBLE. /10
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
DEEP EAST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA TODAY AS THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS POSITIONED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS FLOW SHOULD HELP TO SUPPRESS THE COASTAL SEA
BREEZE A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST AND ALSO KEEP PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BELOW 1.5". THERE COULD STILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONSIDERING THE
OVERALL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION WILL BE
LEFT OUT OF THE TAF FORECAST. THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND DRIER
AIR WILL ALSO KEEP VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 7-
10KTS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KJKA WHERE THE DEVELOPING SEABREEZE
SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE SITE AFTER 20Z WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
7-10KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15KTS BECOMING SOUTHERLY 8-10KTS
FOLLOWING THE SEABREEZE PASSAGE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ANY
LINGERING CUMULUS DISSIPATING. SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS BASED
AROUND 2.5KFT SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP BY MID MORNING TOMORROW WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS 7-9KTS. GREATER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ADVECT
OVER THE AREA AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND WEAKENS. THIS ALONG WITH
A STRONGER INLAND PENETRATING SEABREEZE SHOULD SUPPORT BETTER
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHICH MAY IMPACT TAF
SITES JUST BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR THIS TAF SET. /JLH
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS, ANY MAINLY VERY ISOLATED LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MARINE AREA BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WATERSPOUTS. CHANCES MAY BECOME HIGHER AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF THIS, A GENERALLY LIGHT BUT VARYING DIURNAL WIND
EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW LATE IN THE
NIGHT/MORNING, BECOMING MORE ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF FAVORS
A MORE ESTABLISHED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 95 75 95 / 0 20 10 20
PENSACOLA 78 95 79 95 / 0 10 0 10
DESTIN 79 93 80 93 / 0 10 0 10
EVERGREEN 73 96 73 95 / 0 10 10 30
WAYNESBORO 75 96 75 96 / 0 10 0 30
CAMDEN 74 93 74 93 / 0 10 0 20
CRESTVIEW 73 97 74 96 / 0 10 0 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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