814
FXUS64 KMOB 021709
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1209 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
- STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAT RISK CONCERNS: HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 100 OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES. WAVE RUNUP AND
OVERWASH ARE A CONCERN ALONG THE COASTLINE MID TO LATE WEEK AS
THE SURF QUICKLY BUILDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY THE PROCESS OF MOVING WELL
OFFSHORE, WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. SURFACE WINDS BRIEFLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE TURNING NORTHERLY BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY RETURNS TO THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE
SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL STATES WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
REGION ON TUESDAY, AND ANOTHER MCS MAY DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND MOVE
INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES OF
1500-2500 J/KG ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHILE SHEAR
VALUES LOOK TO BE LOW WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES REMAINING
MOSTLY 20 KNOTS OR LESS. DCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE LESS
THAN 500 J/KG, SO WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THAT SAID, WILL MENTION SOME STRONG STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL MCS.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE BACK-DOOR FRONT WITH
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES TREND TO
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY AS A RETURN FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED AND THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST
A BIT. MAINLY CHANCE POPS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF AROUND 100 OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. HIGHS
ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER AND AROUND 80 THEN GRADUALLY TREND TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY SUNDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST THEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GRADUALLY TREND WARMER TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY FOR THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A LOW RISK FOR THE ALABAMA BEACHES. A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS THEN EXPECTED FOR ALL BEACHES WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1206 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY, WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN CEILING AND VISIBILITY
UNDERNEATH ANY STORMS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY,
SHIFTING OUT OF THE EAST TONIGHT AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WORKS
ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2026
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE MORNING
AND THEN EASTERLY BY TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP EARLY
WEDNESDAY IN THE STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW AND PERSIST THROUGH
THURSDAY ACROSS THE BAYS, WATERWAYS, AND GULF WATERS WHILE
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE GULF WATERS.
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 70 80 65 83 / 60 30 10 0
PENSACOLA 71 81 67 83 / 60 30 0 10
DESTIN 71 82 68 83 / 70 30 0 10
EVERGREEN 66 80 59 83 / 60 10 0 0
WAYNESBORO 68 80 59 83 / 40 10 0 0
CAMDEN 66 80 59 82 / 40 10 0 0
CRESTVIEW 66 81 60 84 / 70 20 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR GMZ630-631-633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR GMZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 11 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR GMZ634>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM WEDNESDAY TO 5 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ670-675.
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