956  
FXUS64 KMOB 220545  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1245 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION  
 
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
UPDATED AT 1241 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025  
 
- AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO AROUND 20% ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, THURSDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY.  
THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED WILDFIRE CONCERNS.  
 
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FROM LATE  
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 
- DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND. A  
HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE  
STARTING SATURDAY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH SURF  
ADVISORY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025  
 
A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR, WILL  
CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE  
NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THE FRONT'S PASSAGE, A COOLER AND MUCH  
DRIER AIRMASS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH AS A  
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS EASTWARD, EVENTUALLY  
ANCHORING ITSELF OVER THE APPALACHIANS BY LATE WEEK. NO RAIN IS  
EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY THIS WEEKEND AS A SOUTHERN STREAM  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH  
GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE STRENGTH AND TRAJECTORY OF THIS SHORTWAVE,  
GUIDANCE IS IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DIFFLUENT,  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP  
SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO THIS SHORTWAVE, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID  
TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES  
STARTING LATE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. AS OF  
RIGHT NOW, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE QUESTIONS THE QUALITY OF THE LOW-  
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN, LIKELY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE  
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH OVER THE APPALACHIANS; CREATING A BIT OF A  
COLD AIR DAMMING SCENARIO. DEW POINTS GENERALLY HAVE A MEDIUM  
CHANCE (GENERALLY 30-60%) OF REMAINING BELOW 65 DEGREES ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, SUGGESTING THAT THE WARM FRONT MAY  
STRUGGLE TO COME ASHORE. THIS WOULD KEEP OUR LOCAL AREA UNDERNEATH  
A COOLER AIRMASS WHICH WOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO MORE OF AN  
OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT. IF, HOWEVER, MODELS BEGIN TO TREND MORE  
TOWARDS A WEAKER HIGH/FURTHER NORTH WARM FRONT SOLUTION, THEN WE  
COULD SEE A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN, ALONG WITH A LOW-END  
SEVERE POTENTIAL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY OVER  
THE COMING DAYS.  
 
HIGHS THROUGH SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW  
80S. HIGHS LOWER INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR SUNDAY AND REMAIN IN  
THE MID 70S FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE MID  
TO UPPER 40S, WITH LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WILL GRADUALLY  
MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, RANGING FROM THE MID 50S  
INLAND TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS FALL  
BACK INTO THE 50S BY NEXT WEEK. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES  
THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO MODERATE RISK ON FRIDAY. A  
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND. A HIGH SURF  
ADVISORY MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY FOR THIS WEEKEND AS SURF  
HEIGHTS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 4-6 FEET. /96  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
(06Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025  
 
OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE SHOW A SMALL BAND OF MVFR TO  
POTENTIALLY IFR CEILINGS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THESE  
CEILINGS SHOULD CLEAR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO LEADING TO VFR  
CONDITIONS PREVAILING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AS A  
NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. BB-8  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2025  
 
A MODERATE NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BECOME PREVALENT  
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. EXERCISE CAUTION  
HEADLINES ARE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS MORNING. AFTER WINDS BRIEFLY  
WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT, A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS ON FRIDAY AND LINGERS THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FOR  
THE GULF WATERS FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. /96  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS  
 
MOBILE 78 49 79 53 / 0 0 0 0  
PENSACOLA 79 54 80 58 / 0 0 0 0  
DESTIN 81 57 80 58 / 0 0 0 0  
EVERGREEN 79 42 82 45 / 0 0 0 0  
WAYNESBORO 76 44 80 46 / 0 0 0 0  
CAMDEN 76 45 80 45 / 0 0 0 0  
CRESTVIEW 79 43 81 44 / 0 0 0 0  
 
 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  
 
 
 
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