558
FXUS64 KMOB 282009
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
309 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AROUND 8 PM TO MIDNIGHT. A SECOND ROUND OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.
- SEVERAL CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- STRONG WINDS RETURN THIS WEEKEND TO AREA WATERS, CREATING
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
A RATHER ACTIVE FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH BROAD WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS USUAL GOING TO BREAK THINGS UP OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
SYNOPSIS...OVERALL SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH BROAD WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PLACE. WE WILL BE NICELY SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEAK BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN US. SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECT TO EJECT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE
NEXT ROUGHLY 72 HOURS AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
THE FIRST CHANCE OF RAIN COMES THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS A BOUNDARY SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT THE MAIN SHOW WILL
ARRIVE AROUND 8PM TONIGHT AS A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL QUICKLY PUSH ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. STORMS SHOULD
WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE COAST AND THE TRAILING BOUNDARY
CONTINUES ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD MARCH TO THE COAST. MOST OF THE
COASTAL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY FROM THIS ROUND BUT WILL LIKELY
NOT REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE WHO SEES STRONGER
STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MORE
THAN LIKELY THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TIME TO RECOVER AS THE
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OR DRIFTS A LITTLE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING. STORMS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY DEPART THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE KICKS EAST OF THE AREA.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INBETWEEN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SLOWLY DIGS
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TEXAS. THIS RIDGING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GIVE US
AT LEAST A 48 HOUR PERIOD OF RESPITE FROM STORMS. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THINGS IN CHECK FOR THE MOST
PART. THE FINAL SHOT OF RAIN COMES ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS THAT UPPER LOW MOVES EASTWARD AND EJECTS OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY. EXPECT ONE LAST ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY PARTS OF SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES OFFSHORE. BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES
AND MOISTURE SHOULD FALL OFF A CLIFF AS HIGHS DROP INTO THE 60S
AND 70S DURING THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE NONE OF THESE ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY
POSE A FLOODING RAIN THREAT DUE TO THE ONGOING SEVERE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS, THE GRADUAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD MAKE A DECENT DENT IN THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS AND AT HINDER DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM WORSENING OVER
THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO.
STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON...STORMS THIS EVENING COULD GET A
LITTLE SPICY AS WE EXPECT A RATHER POTENT SQUALL LINE TO MOVE
THROUGH AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. STORMS HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A REMNANT
BOUNDARY THAT HAS STALLED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS
CHOCTAW AND WILCOX COUNTIES IN ALABAMA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR A MUCH MORE POTENT SYSTEM THAT HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. AREA AVERAGED MODEL SOUNDINGS AND
EARLIER 12Z RAOBS FROM BMX AND JAN SUGGEST RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE LEADING TO APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY VALUES
AROUND 1500 TO 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE. INSTABILITY DECREASES RATHER
QUICKLY ONCE YOU CROSS THE BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA BUT
A RATHER NOTICEABLE CORRIDOR FOR THE ONGOING STORMS TO MOVE DOWN
HAS SETUP. THIS CORRIDOR EXTENDS FROM ROUGHLY CHOCTAW COUNTY
ALABAMA SOUTHEASTER THROUGH WILCOX INTO PARTS OF BUTLER AND
CRENSHAW COUNTIES. GIVEN THE RATHER IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES AND 15
TO 20 DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG BOWING SEGMENTS. A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY WHERE THE ONGOING
SQUALL INTERSECTS WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. HODOGRAPHS DO HAVE
ENOUGH CURVATURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY TO SUPPORT SOME
LEVELS OF MESOVORTEX DEVELOPMENT WHERE SURGES IN THE REAR INFLOW
JET ARE STRONG ENOUGH. SOME HAIL COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WHERE THE OUTFLOW OF THE LINE IS ABLE TO UNDERCUT THE CONVECTION
AND A MORE ELEVATED MODE COULD BE POSSIBLE. EITHER WAY, IT IS
SHAPING UP FOR A POTENTIAL QUICK HITTING ACTIVE NIGHT ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. FURTHER SOUTH, INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER AND
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD STORMS OR
EVEN RAIN. AS A RESULT THE SEVERE RISK QUICKLY DROPS OFF AS WE
APPROACH THE COAST.
STRONG TO SEVERE WEDNESDAY... ANOTHER BATCH OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
BIGGEST QUESTION FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE WHERE DOES THE BOUNDARY SET
UP AFTER TONIGHTS STORMS AND HOW DO THE SHEAR PROFILES SHAKE OUT.
NONETHELESS, OUR RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND THE AREA WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MUSTER UP SOME
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME LARGER HAIL COULD BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, EXACT LOCATIONS
AND A HIGH CORRIDOR OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL NOT BE IRONED OUT
UNTIL LIKELY THE MORNING AS THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY
CAN BE REALIZED. BB-8
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
VFR TO LOCALLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY IMPACT OPERATIONS OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS EARLY AS
MID-AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY SET IN
AFTER DARK WITH IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR OR GREATER BY MID-
MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. PREVAILING WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5-15 KTS, BUT MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF STORMS OVER NORTHERN AREAS. JGC/BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2026
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL BECOME TEMPORARILY
OFFSHORE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND
STALLS. WINDS SHIFT TO EASTERLY, THEN RETURN TO ONSHORE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS AREA WATERS SATURDAY, BRINGING MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY. BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 69 87 67 81 / 20 30 60 40
PENSACOLA 70 83 70 81 / 10 20 50 50
DESTIN 71 80 70 80 / 10 20 50 50
EVERGREEN 66 90 64 81 / 40 40 80 40
WAYNESBORO 67 88 64 77 / 40 50 80 40
CAMDEN 66 87 63 76 / 60 50 80 40
CRESTVIEW 67 88 65 84 / 20 30 60 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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