643
FXUS64 KMOB 312327
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
527 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
- MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA WILL PROBABLY
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
- THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL STEADILY INCREASE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A HIGH RISK FOR LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
A LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES GRADUALLY RETREATS TO
OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST STATES AND ADJACENT EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROGRESS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY AND INTO THE EASTERN STATES ON
FRIDAY, WITH A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROF MEANWHILE FOLLOWING A
SIMILAR PATH AND AMPLIFYING WHILE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES,
AND IN THE PROCESS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
ON SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON
FRIDAY MAINLY WEST OF I-65. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS SHIFT
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
INSTABILITY APPEARS TO REMAIN LIMITED FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT AS NOTED
BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT, THE SLOWER TIMING OF THIS NEXT FRONT DOES
ALLOW FOR MORE TIME FOR BETTER MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
THE RESULT IS THAT MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG COULD MATERIALIZE
ON SATURDAY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. WHILE VEERING IN WIND PROFILES IS MODEST, 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS WILL BE PRESENT WHICH INDICATES A
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION.
TONIGHT WILL BE COOL AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S WELL INLAND TO
THE LOWER 40S AT THE COAST, THEN OVERNIGHT LOWS TREND TO THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S BY FRIDAY NIGHT, VALUES WHICH ARE AROUND 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, LOWS BY SUNDAY
NIGHT DROP TO JUST ABOVE NORMAL VALUES, MID 30S TO MID 40S, BUT
THEN TREND TO 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
TREND WARMER TO THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY FRIDAY, AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, THEN BY SUNDAY DECREASE TO NEAR SEASONABLE
VALUES IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. A MODERATING TREND FOLLOWS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY TO MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S, WHICH WILL BE ABOUT 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. A HIGH
RISK IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WITH A MODERATE
RISK FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN A LOW RISK FOLLOWS FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. /29
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS THIS EVENING
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 5 KNOTS, SHIFTING OUT
OF THE WEST AT 5 KNOTS AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THURSDAY. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1038 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
STRENGTHENS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
DIMINISHES ON SUNDAY THEN BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY BECOME NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF
THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 37 65 48 70 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 42 65 52 70 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 44 63 53 69 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 32 65 41 70 / 0 0 0 20
WAYNESBORO 34 65 43 70 / 0 0 0 30
CAMDEN 32 63 42 66 / 0 0 0 30
CRESTVIEW 32 65 43 70 / 0 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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