894
FXUS64 KMOB 290737
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
237 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID AFTERNOON TODAY AND
CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE BEHIND A WESTWARD MOVING
INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THIS TROUGH, INCREASED
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN OVERCAST DECK BASED BETWEEN 3-5KFT. THIS WILL
OCCUR FIRST NEAR COASTAL AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THEN
SPREAD INLAND VERY LATE TONIGHT PRIOR TO SUNRISE SUNDAY. CLOUDY
SKIES SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AFTER WHICH TIME THERE MAY BE A FEW TEMPORARY BREAKS DEVELOP
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL MIXING BEFORE LIKELY
FILLING BACK IN SUNDAY EVENING. THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER SHOULD
HELP TO LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW AND HAVE UNDERCUT THE
LATEST NBM GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH BRISK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS MAKING
IT FEEL QUITE COOL OVERALL. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND A
FURTHER INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
SHOULD RESULT IN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AGAIN AREAWIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE THE FETCH
AND SWELL COMING TOWARDS THE COAST WHICH WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR AN INCREASED RIP CURRENT THREAT AT THE BEACHES. A
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL ADVECT
NORTHWARD WITHIN RETURN LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST. DESPITE THIS ENHANCED MOISTURE AND INCREASED
INSTABILITY WITH DAILY DIURNAL HEATING, BUILDING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS SHOULD HELP TO LIMIT CONVECTION TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE AT BEST, POTENTIALLY FOCUSED ALONG A DEVELOPING SEA
BREEZE AND WITHIN THE BROAD ZONE OF MOISTURE ADVECTION OVER THE
AREA. THIS PERSISTENT PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY WILL ALSO RESULT IN
CONTINUED OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING LOW LEVEL STRATUS EACH
DAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARM WITH A RETURN TO RATHER
HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
BY MID WEEK, ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA. THERE
REMAINS SOME MODEL SPREAD WITH RESPECT TO HOW DEEP THIS TROUGH
BECOMES AS THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST. AT THIS POINT, IT
APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST ENSEMBLE SUPPORT TILTS TOWARDS THE ENS
SOLUTION WHICH DEAMPLIFIES THE UPPER TROUGH AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG
RIDGING REMAINS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH IN
THE WESTERN STATES. IN ADDITION, DESPITE DIFFERENCES IN THE TROUGH
INTENSITY THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A SIGNAL FOR MUCH QPF WITH ALMOST
ALL OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BELOW 20-30% PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES, DESPITE MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITIES
(~70%) FOR GREATER THAN 0.10 INCHES. CURRENTLY POPS ARE CAPPED
AROUND 60% IN THE WEST TO 40% EAST, WHICH LOOKS FINE FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD CONSIDERING THE OVERALL PATTERN AND TRENDS.
RIDING BUILDS SLIGHTLY FROM THE EAST WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE MID
WEEK TROUGH, BUT THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH
WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ADVERTISED BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS TIMING ISSUES WITH THE TROUGH WHICH IS TO
BE EXPECTED THIS FAR INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO REFINE THE FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME AND
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WARM WEATHER WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S WHICH REMAINS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. /JLH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A VFR CEILING NEAR 3.5-6 KFT SPREADS WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS NEAR 2.5 KFT POSSIBLE OVER INTERIOR
AREAS. SIMILAR VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY, THOUGH MVFR CEILINGS NEAR 2.5 KFT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANT NEAR THE COAST GENERALLY FROM 14-23Z. EASTERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT OF 5-10 KNOTS, OCCASIONALLY A BIT STRONGER NEAR THE
COAST, BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 237 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AND CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON. A MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS ON THURSDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 60 79 64 / 0 0 20 10
PENSACOLA 70 63 74 65 / 0 0 10 0
DESTIN 70 62 74 64 / 0 10 10 0
EVERGREEN 69 55 82 59 / 0 0 10 0
WAYNESBORO 73 56 81 62 / 0 0 20 0
CAMDEN 70 55 80 59 / 10 0 10 0
CRESTVIEW 72 56 81 59 / 0 0 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ631-
632-650-655-670-675.
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