085
FXUS64 KMOB 231125
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
625 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 624 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
- A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TODAY
FOR HEAT INDICES TO AROUND 108 DEGREES.
- AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT
WEEK, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AN NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. /13
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2026
A NORTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES AND UPPER
TROUGHING DIGS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS GENERAL PATTERN
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, ALLOWING FOR SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
FIRST OF THESE SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY PASSING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FORCING FROM THIS SHORTWAVE HELPED TO
SPARK OFF A COMPLEX OF STORMS WHICH MOVED THROUGH NORTH/CENTRAL MS
AND AL THIS PAST EVENING. AS WE GO THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD, LIKELY REACHING OUR COASTAL COUNTIES BY THE MID TO
LATE MORNING HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD, GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS THAT IT WILL HELP TO PUSH
DEEP MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 1.8-2.1 INCHES) INTO THE AREA. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS IS A RATHER STARK DIFFERENCE TO WHAT
GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING 24 HOURS AGO. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT WE
APPEAR TO BE TRENDING WETTER FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA WHERE THE REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG. POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA NOW RANGE FROM 30-50%, WITH POPS AROUND 20% FURTHER INLAND.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK, THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE
(SBCAPES EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG AND DCAPES UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG)
COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE-TYPE STORMS, CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH BY THE EVENING HOURS.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON MONDAY AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK
AS SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES PUSH INTO THE AREA WITHIN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AS STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND SPREAD VIA OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGH INSTABILITY WHICH
COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL, ALONG
WITH FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.
ADDITIONALLY, AS WE OFTEN SEE WHENEVER WE HAVE A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IF
UPSTREAM STORMS ARE ABLE TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND PUSH INTO OUR
LOCAL AREA. IF AN MCS IS ABLE TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT OUR AREA,
THEN WE COULD SEE AN INCREASED RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS. WE WILL
MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY OVER THE COMING DAYS.
VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES FOR HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 108
DEGREES. THE GOOD NEWS, THOUGH, IS THAT WITH THE INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK TO THEIR
SEASONAL NORMS, WITH HIGHS BY MIDWEEK IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
HEAT INDICES THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (AROUND 102-107), ALTHOUGH
A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS OF 108-110 DEGREES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. /96
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD
OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 96 74 93 73 / 40 20 70 30
PENSACOLA 95 78 92 76 / 40 10 60 40
DESTIN 92 79 90 77 / 30 10 50 40
EVERGREEN 98 72 94 70 / 20 20 50 20
WAYNESBORO 98 73 94 70 / 20 20 50 20
CAMDEN 96 73 91 69 / 20 20 40 20
CRESTVIEW 97 73 93 71 / 40 20 60 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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