019
FXUS64 KMOB 300746
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
246 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH EASTERLY TO
EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE LATEST GOES-19 DERIVED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT HAS OBSERVED AN AXIS OF HIGHER
MOISTURE WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
AND INTO SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA. THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES MATCH WELL
WITH 00Z SOUNDINGS NEAR AND WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME.
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT INCREASING
MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOW LEVELS, REPRESENTED BY MIXING RATIOS
BETWEEN 10-12 G/KG ADVECTING NORTHWARD WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITHIN THE 950-900MB LAYER ALONG THE 295K THETA SURFACE BY LATE
TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATUS OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY
SUNRISE MONDAY. THIS LOW STATUS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
TO LATE MORNING MONDAY. WINDS JUST ABOVE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION
LAYER INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KTS WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY FOG FROM
FORMING. EAST TO EVENTUALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH CONTINUED LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER TONIGHT
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S OVER INTERIOR AREAS TO THE
LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST.
CLOUD DECKS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS MIXING INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO DIURNAL
HEATING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES BY LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH OFF THE EAST COAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AND THE FLOW
BELOW ROUGHLY 5KFT WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS ANTICIPATED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE PLUME OF HIGHER MOISTURE
TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER THE GULF TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY. IN ADDITION,
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH A SUBTLE EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS SUBTLE
WAVE COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES SHIFTS
A BIT FURTHER EAST BY WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST LIMITED-AREA REGIONAL
ENSEMBLE FORECAST (LREF) GRAND ENSEMBLE IS WELL ALIGNED WITH ALL
FOUR ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS WHICH LENDS HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN GULF LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE
INTERACTING WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD RESULT IN
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST
OF I-65 WHERE THE GREATER HEIGHT FALLS WILL OCCUR. MODERATE
INSTABILITY BUT WEAK SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS LOW. PROBABILITIES AMONG THE LREF CLUSTER GUIDANCE REMAINS
BELOW 10% FOR THE PROBABILITY OF 24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS OF
GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY HEAVY RAINFALL AT
THIS TIME.
OVERALL ENSEMBLE CLUSTER ANALYSIS ALONG WITH EACH RESPECTIVE MODEL
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE TO INCLUDE THE GEFS, ENS, AND GEPS START TO
DIVERGE FROM EACH OTHER BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. THE SPREAD HAS INCREASED OVERALL FROM YESTERDAYS RUNS
WHICH INCREASES UNCERTAINTY OVERALL DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CONSIDERING THE TRENDS PLAN TO REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE NBM FORECAST GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. /JLH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
AN MVFR CEILING IS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AROUND
10 KNOTS ON MONDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH
TODAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OPEN GULF
WATERS THIS MORNING. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 79 64 80 64 / 30 10 60 20
PENSACOLA 74 65 77 66 / 10 0 40 10
DESTIN 74 64 75 65 / 10 0 30 10
EVERGREEN 81 59 82 59 / 10 0 40 10
WAYNESBORO 81 62 82 63 / 40 10 70 10
CAMDEN 80 59 82 60 / 20 10 50 10
CRESTVIEW 81 59 82 60 / 10 0 30 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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