948  
FXUS64 KMOB 191714  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1214 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
19/18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT TO  
MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT  
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. 12/DS  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1038 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AND MARINE AREAS BELOW.  
 
UPDATE...FORECAST FOR THE NEAR TERM APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. CLOUD  
COVER HAS DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA AS EXPECTED, WITH MORE SUNSHINE  
EXPECTED TODAY. A VERY DRY AND SOMEWHAT COOL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW  
CONTINUES, AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE CURVE SEEMS TO BE REPRESENTATIVE  
WITH HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE  
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH  
SOMEWHAT BY LATE TODAY. 12/DS  
 
MARINE...ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR  
MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA TO EXPIRE AT 10 AM, ALTHOUGH EXERCISE  
CAUTION LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER TO THE ENTIRE  
MARINE AREA INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHER THAN DROPPING THE  
SCA HEADLINES, NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO MORNING CWF UPDATE PACKAGE.  
12/DS  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
AVIATION...  
12Z ISSUANCE....VFR CIGS AND VISBYS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.  
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY EASING TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS  
TONIGHT.  
/16  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER  
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BRINGING THE CURRENT DECK OF UPPER LEVEL  
CLOUD COVER WILL MOVE EAST OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST THIS  
MORNING, ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR. INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE  
COUNTERBALANCED, THOUGH, BY CONTINUED COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE  
FORECAST AREA, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REMAINING BELOW SEASONAL FOR THE  
DATE. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. TONIGHT, WITH CLEAR  
SKIES, A DRY AIRMASS, AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION,  
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO WELL BELOW SEASONAL  
NORMS, RANGING FROM MID 30S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 TO LOW 40S CLOSE TO  
THE COAST.  
/16  
 
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A DRY WEATHER  
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER  
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES PUSHES EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC  
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A BRIEF RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. ANOTHER WEAK  
AND DRY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNING IN ITS WAKE AS SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS UNDER  
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES WILL TREND COOLER THAN NORMAL, FALLING INTO  
THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST  
AND NEAR 50 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL TREND  
CLOSER TO NORMAL. CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEDNESDAY  
AND THURSDAY. /08  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A MILD AND DRY WEATHER  
PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS  
TO THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS  
AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A  
DEVELOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR MINOR  
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION TO POTENTIALLY GENERATE  
SOME SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT.  
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP MONDAY  
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD  
FRONT. /08  
 
MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SHIFTS  
EAST AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST  
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW  
BECOMING A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. AM NOT EXPECTING AN EXTENSION OF THE  
CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OPEN GULF WATERS PAST 15Z THIS  
MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS AREA WATERS LATE WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW TO  
AREA WATERS FOR THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOT ANTICIPATED  
AFTER THE FRONT'S PASSAGE AT THIS TIME. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER  
THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST THE END OF THE WEEK, PASSING OVER AREA WATERS  
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS PASSAGE BRINGS ONSHORE FLOW  
BACK TO THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. /16  
 
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
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