250
FXUS64 KMOB 041548
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1048 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
- RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR MID TO LATE WEEK, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
- THE RISK FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS INCREASES MIDWEEK, WITH A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE ACROSS FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY AS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES TO PREVAIL. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN BEGINS MID TO LATE
WEEK AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRANSIT THE BASE OF LONGWAVE TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK. THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BRINGING CONTINUOUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY STALLING ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE
DAY THURSDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN SLOWING DOWN THE FORWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. IF THERE WERE TO BE A PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER, IT WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE STALLED FRONT.
TIMING AND LOCATION IS UNCERTAIN AS MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON
HOW THIS FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS
FOR AMPLE CAPE, AMPLE SHEAR, AND AT LEAST MODEST FORCING TO ALLOW
FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AT SOME POINT
THURSDAY PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AFTER WE GET PAST THURSDAY, GUIDANCE DIVERGES QUITE A BIT ON HOW
THEY HANDLE A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE/CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AS IT TRANSITS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. IF THIS
ACTUALLY MOVES EAST INTO THE AREA, IT WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AGAIN AS WE GET INTO THE LATE WEEK AND
WEEKEND TIMEFRAME, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW AT THIS
TIME. REGARDLESS, WITH THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH STILL SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PROGRESSING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WE CAN AT LEAST ANTICIPATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND.
THE RISK FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE
GET INTO MID TO LATE WEEK. A LOW RISK TODAY BECOMES A MODERATE
RISK WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
BECOMES POSSIBLE THURSDAY FOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR HIGHS AND LOWS MID TO LATE WEEK. WE WILL SEE ONE MORE
NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40'S TO LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50'S BEFORE WARMING INTO THE UPPER 60'S AND LOWER 70'S
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IF THE FRONT MAKES IT FULLY THROUGH THE AREA
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL LATE WEEK BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND, GOING
FROM UPPER 70'S AND LOWER 80'S TO DAY AND TUESDAY TO MIDDLE AND
UPPER 80'S WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY IS MORE UNCERTAIN AS IT DEPENDS ON
COVERAGE OF STORMS AND HOW QUICKLY THAT FRONT MOVES SOUTH, BUT
EXPECT AT LEAST UPPER 70'S TO LOWER 80'S, POTENTIALLY WARMER SOUTH
OF THE FRONT. MIDDLE 70'S TO LOWER 80'S CAN BE EXPECTED LATE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. MM/25
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TODAY INCREASES TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE IN THE WEEK BEHIND THE
FRONT. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 55 80 65 84 / 0 0 0 20
PENSACOLA 60 79 69 82 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 62 78 70 80 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 49 83 59 87 / 0 0 0 20
WAYNESBORO 53 83 63 85 / 0 0 0 40
CAMDEN 51 82 61 85 / 0 0 0 40
CRESTVIEW 50 83 61 86 / 0 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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