836
FXUS64 KMOB 271816
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
116 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH A COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY WITH VERY
DRY AIR, BREEZY CONDITIONS, AND DRY FUELS. MODERATE TO EXTREME
DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO MID
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
ANOTHER BUMP TO ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BRING A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS INTO THE AREA. VERY LITTLE , IF ANY, RAIN
IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT DUE TO THE LACK ANY SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE RETURN. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND
INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS
UP BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXTREME FIRE
BEHAVIOR. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS A FEW SHORTWAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS INCREASES RAPIDLY TOMORROW WITH A HIGH
RISK EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. /13
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST BECOMING STRONG AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND MIDNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE OFFSHORE FLOW DIMINISHES SOMEWHAT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN A MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY. /13
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
THE SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL INCREASES TO A HIGH ON SATURDAY DUE
TO THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS, WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FIRE GROWTH ON EXISTING FIRES. THE
ONGOING SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF
THE AREA WILL ONLY EXACERBATE THE CONCERN FOR WILDFIRES. FOR THESE
REASONS, A RED FLAG WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
ON SATURDAY. ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY SPREAD
RAPIDLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 57 75 57 74 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 60 75 59 70 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 59 74 55 70 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 51 74 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 51 70 50 74 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN 51 70 49 72 / 10 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 54 77 49 75 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ067-075-
076-078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 3 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
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