106  
FXUS64 KMOB 171732  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
1232 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025  
 
NEAR TERM FORECAST ON TRACK AS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REMAINS ON  
THE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE EASTERN FLANK OF A SHORT-WAVE UPPER TROF  
ALIGNED OVER THE MID-SOUTH TO OFF THE CENTRAL LA COAST. ENVIRONMENTAL  
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT'S 1.8 TO 2.0". CONSIDERING THESE  
PLAYERS ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY (MUCAPES RANGING  
3000-4000 J/KG) AND A MULTITUDE OF RAIN-COOLED SURFACE BASED OUTFLOW  
BOUNDARIES TO AID IN FOCUSED ASCENT IN THE MESOSCALE FAVORS  
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE  
DAY. SOME OF THE STORMS LIKELY TO BE STRONG, CONTAINING BRIEF  
STRONG WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH, CONCENTRATED AND FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING, PERHAPS SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. STORMS  
ARE SHOWING STEADY NORTHWARD MOVEMENT AS TO LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME  
OVER ANY ONE AREA, BUT SHORT TERM HEAVY RAINFALL RATES COULD  
YIELD TO INSTANCES OF NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IN LOWER LYING,  
POORLY DRAINED AREAS. FORECASTERS CANNOT DISCOUNT THE POTENTIAL OF  
A RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. /10  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(18Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025  
 
UPPER END MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCAL DROPS TO MID LEVEL MVFR  
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE  
FORECAST AREA AT NOONTIME. AM EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE  
INLAND WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH  
THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE DAY'S  
HEATING IS LOSS. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH  
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE COST MOVING INLAND  
AND AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10, THEN INLAND. AGAIN  
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.  
/16  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2025  
 
A LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH  
SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR STORMS, AND THE  
ENVIRONMENT ALSO LOOKS TO BE SUPPORTIVE OF WATERSPOUTS IN MORNING  
ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST. /29  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MOB  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab AL Page
The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab MS Page Main Text Page