401  
FXUS64 KMOB 122104  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA  
404 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2020  
   
NEAR TERM UPDATE /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
GENERAL PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED, WITH THE LOCAL AREA SITTING ON  
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE. A LITTLE  
QUIETER THIS AFTERNOON THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. COULD STILL  
SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POP UP DURING THE LATE  
AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT HAVE GENERALLY REDUCED POPS GOING INTO THE  
EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA,  
BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS.  
 
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PERK UP OVER THE GULF  
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS  
OVER LAND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY  
RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. STEERING FLOW WILL BE  
GENERALLY LIGHT AND THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE  
TO WORK WITH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT MOSTLY IN THE LOW 90S  
WITH A FEW PLACES IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA POSSIBLY  
REACHING THE MID 90S. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE  
100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE. WITH HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, THOUGH,  
EXPECT RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW TO HELP COOL OFF SOME LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
PATTERN WILL BE MOST ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS AN UPPER  
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WILL MAINTAIN  
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY AS THE TROUGHINESS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THINGS UNSTABLE  
ENOUGH FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE  
WEATHER DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH OF A THREAT, BUT A FEW STORMS COULD  
BECOME STRONG, PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUTSY WINDS AND  
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO  
MID 70S IN THE MORNING TO AROUND OR JUST OVER 90 DEGREES IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
EXTENDED TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW COULD USHER  
IN SOME DRIER AIR FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THAT IS FAR FROM A SLAM DUNK FORECAST THIS  
TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A  
DOWNWARD TREND IN POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WILL NEED TO  
MONITOR TRENDS. BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF  
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HIGHER END CHANCE  
POPS GOING INTO MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY FORECAST TO BE  
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. EXPECT LIGHT TO  
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. EXCEPTION WILL  
BE IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHERE WINDS AND  
WAVES WILL BE HIGHER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE  
DEVELOPMENT OF WATERSPOUTS EACH MORNING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL  
TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT SCATTERED  
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD  
RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF LOWER CIGS/VSBY AND GUSTY WINDS.  
WILL MAINTAIN VCTS AT ALL SITES DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON  
HOURS.  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB  
 
95/DM  
 
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