032
FXUS64 KMOB 241921
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
221 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 221 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOME LOCATIONS NEARING OR BREAKING DAILY RECORD HIGHS. HEAT
ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, SOUTHERN U.S.,
AND THE NORTHERN GULF WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THIS RIDGE
WILL THEN BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN LATE TONIGHT AND GET NUDGED WESTWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WHILE A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA DOMINATES
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS WILL PLACE OUR REGION IN A
STRAIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN ABOVE 700MB BY SUNDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL THEN LIFT NORTHEASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAKING WAY
FOR A PROMINENT RIDGE TO REBUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION FROM THE
WEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EMERGES UNDER THE UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS
DAILY TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S THIS
WEEKEND, WE WILL SEE A RESULTANT SEA-BREEZE MIGRATE INLAND AS FAR
NORTH AS THE HIGHWAY-84 CORRIDOR DESPITE THE OPPOSING 850 MB
WEST-NORTHWESTLY FLOW ON SATURDAY AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON
SUNDAY ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR
WEST.
BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS AND CAMS, WE ADDED
EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND MADE A SOUTHWARD
ADJUSTMENT WITH THE LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM WHAT THE NBM
WAS SHOWING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SEA-BREEZE. ANY REMAINING EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING, FOLLOWED BY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WE EXPANDED THE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE NBM WESTWARD TO INCLUDE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
AND CAMS BUT KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN AT 20-30%. AS WITH MOST
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SUMMERTIME ACTIVITY, ANY REMAINING EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING. WE DID NOT MAKING ANY
EDITS TO THE NBM POPS FOR SUNDAY, AND KEPT THEM CONFINED TO A
PORTION OF SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO OKALOOSA COUNTY FL, CLOSER
TO THE UPPER TROUGH. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW IF ANY
STORMS NORTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY MORNING WILL MAKE IT SOUTHWARD
INTO OTHER PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA OR HAVE ENOUGH FORCING TO
OVERCOME A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED AROUND 700 MB. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF A WESTWARD EXPANSION MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THIS WEEKEND ACTIVITY, BUT
OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY VALUES APPROACH 1500-2000 J/KG. LOOKING AHEAD, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF SPOTTY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG A SEA-BREEZE. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS SIMILAR UPPER
TROUGH IS SET TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AND
BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT.
IT WILL BE HOT OVER THE WEEKEND AND THEN VERY HOT THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WORKWEEK WHEN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES LEAD TO INCREASING
HEAT STRESS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE HEAT PRECAUTIONARY
MESSAGING IN THE COMING DAYS SO THE PUBLIC IS AWARE, AND PREPARES
ACCORDINGLY. WEEKEND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH
APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) BETWEEN 100-107 DEGREES. FOR
THE HOTTEST DAYS, WE ARE FORECASTING HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S ON MONDAY, AND IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S INLAND (MIDDLE
90S ALONG THE COAST) TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH APPARENT
TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 105-112 DEGREES ALL THREE DAYS. SOME
LOCATIONS ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY COULD SEE
TEMPORARY HEAT INDICES PEEK AROUND 115 DEGREES. THERE WILL BE NO
OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AS LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, INCREASING TO 7-9 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. /22
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH
OF A SEA-BREEZE PUSHING ABOUT 50 MILES INLAND WHILE REMAINING
VARIABLE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
OCCUR OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS SATURDAY MORNING. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2026
NEARBY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE MAINLY LIGHT ONSHORE
THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT A MORE ESTABLISHED WESTERLY, MODERATE FLOW
BUILDS EARLY NEXT-WEEK RANGING 10-15KTS AT TIMES. WAVES/SEAS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT TO CALM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 97 76 97 / 0 10 0 10
PENSACOLA 77 94 78 95 / 0 10 10 10
DESTIN 79 91 80 92 / 0 20 10 10
EVERGREEN 73 93 74 93 / 20 20 20 10
WAYNESBORO 75 96 75 96 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN 74 91 74 91 / 20 20 20 20
CRESTVIEW 75 95 75 96 / 0 30 10 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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