247
FXUS64 KMOB 300536
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1236 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1235 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON,
INCREASING TO A HIGH RISK FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR
ALL AREA BEACHES.
- RAIN CHANCES SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE TODAY AS THE WEAKENING EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH RETREATS, WHILE A STRONG UPPER LOW ADVANCES EAST FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
PROMOTE INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL TRANSPORT INCREASINGLY HUMID GULF AIR INLAND
THIS EVENING, ENDING THE RECENT STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS AND COOL
NIGHTS. HIGHS REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TODAY (UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S), WITH LOWS TONIGHT RETURNING TO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO MID 70S
AT THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW TODAY ASIDE FROM AN ISOLATED
SEA BREEZE SHOWER OR TWO.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN THURSDAY, BRINGING INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED, STARTING NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING
AND SPREADING INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE BRIEF GIVEN LINGERING DRY AIR AND STABLE LAPSE RATES ALOFT. ON
FRIDAY, DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA, WITH PWATS
RISING ABOVE 2 INCHES. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.
A VERY WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AS DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE POOLS AHEAD OF A SLOW-MOVING FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO SURGE INTO THE 2.3 TO 2.5 INCH
RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WHICH SITS ABOVE THE 98TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY OCTOBER CLIMATOLOGY. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT
WARM RAIN PROCESSES AND LOCALLY INTENSE RATES. WHILE THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS UNCERTAIN, LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WOULD BECOME A RISK WHERE STORMS TRAIN REPEATEDLY,
PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AND POOR-DRAINAGE AREAS. THE WPC HAS
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA SATURDAY. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY INCREASE IN
THE FLOOD THREAT. THE GOOD NEWS IS, THIS RAIN WILL BE BENEFICIAL FOR
AREAS SUFFERING MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE
FRONT ADVANCES BEFORE STALLING OR MOVING OFFSHORE. REGARDLESS,
PERSISTENT CLOUDS, RAIN, AND THE POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURE BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE BEACHES, STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL RAISE THE RIP
CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO A HIGH RISK
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. JGC/98
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INTO WEDNESDAY. 10 TO 15 KNOTS CLOSER
TO THE COAST, 5 TO 10 KNOTS INLAND EXPECTED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1047 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TODAY. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY, PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS INCREASE TO 3-6 FEET LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 88 73 87 / 10 60 30 80
PENSACOLA 76 86 77 86 / 20 70 50 80
DESTIN 76 86 77 86 / 30 60 50 80
EVERGREEN 67 91 68 90 / 0 50 10 80
WAYNESBORO 68 90 68 89 / 0 60 0 80
CAMDEN 68 91 69 90 / 0 30 10 60
CRESTVIEW 69 89 70 88 / 10 50 10 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page