762
FXUS64 KMOB 231725
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF BEACHES THROUGH TODAY.
- SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT HAS DRAGGED A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS A NW-SE ORIENTED
BOUNDARY NEAR THE HWY 84 CORRIDOR. WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR
EXCEED 4000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HWY 84
CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION, MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP AROUND 7-7.5
C/KM. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS VERY WEAK, THE ABOVE PARAMETERS
SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. AN
ISOLATED, BRIEF SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE ONLY
UNCERTAINTY IS THE EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SINCE WE ARE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE EASTWARD MOVING SHORTWAVE AND ACTUALLY IN SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. WILL MAINTAIN 40-60% RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ALL BUT THE FAR INLAND AREAS. CONVECTION COULD STILL BE ONGOING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT THIS IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. GUIDANCE
VARIES A LITTLE BIT ON THE TIMING OF THIS WAVE (NOT UNCOMMON FOR
CONVECTIVE NW FLOW EVENTS), BUT IN GENERAL IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL
ENHANCE OUR STORM CHANCES FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. OUR INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE TODAY. THE ADDITION OF A BETTER FORCING
MECHANISM APPEARS TO YIELD A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
IN SOME STORMS WITH A FEW STORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING SEVERE. THE
LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER, WE WILL BE MONITORING STORMS CLOSELY
TOMORROW FOR THE STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS ON THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
LEAVES A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA. JUST LIKE
TODAY, A FEW STORMS WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATERS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 2", WE WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CONCERNS,
BUT GIVEN HOW SATURATED WE ARE, WE COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE WILL SEE MUCH LOWER STORM CHANCES IN THIS PERIOD
ALONG WITH 100-105 DEGREE HEAT INDICES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HEAT
INDICES COULD APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108 DEGREES) IN SOME
LOCATIONS BY NEXT MONDAY. 34/JFB
BEACH FORECAST: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY WILL
TRANSITION TO A LOW RISK THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. 34/JFB
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL DROPS IN
CONDITIONS TO LOW/MID MVFR IN THE CONVECTION ALONG WITH LOCALLY
VARIABLE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE,
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST. /16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT
OFFSHORE FLOW TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A GENERAL
LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. 34/JFB
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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