093
FXUS64 KMOB 241155
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
655 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF BEACHES THROUGH TODAY.
- SUMMERTIME HEAT WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WE EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM 87 TO 92 DEGREES, WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 105
DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF ACTIVE WEATHER BEFORE THE HEAT KICKS BACK IN
BY THE WEEKEND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS FIRMLY PLANTED ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO. A WEAK BOUNDARY HAS SLOWLY SHIFTED SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AS CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS
HAS HELPED PUSH IT JUST OFFSHORE. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY ERODE
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A COUPLE SUBTLE SHORTWAVES ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND WITH
EACH WAVE WILL COME A ROUND OF STORMS. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
FOCUSED ALONG A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED AREA OF
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS STARTING AROUND SOUTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND DIVES ACROSS OUR AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI
INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO
MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WHILE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN 0-3KM SHEAR TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SOME MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND
POTENTIALLY A LITTLE MORE ROBUST OUTFLOW DRIVEN SYSTEM OR CLUSTER
OF STORMS. THESE WOULD LIKELY BEGIN TO OUR WEST AND MOVE INTO OUR
AREA BEFORE WEAKENING AS OUTFLOW WOULD LIKELY OUTPACE THE BETTER
INSTABILITY AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION BEGINS. GIVEN DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LEADING TO SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT AS NOTED BY THE
00Z LIX SOUNDING, RATHER IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY WILL BE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STEEP MID- LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND STRONGER COLD
POOLS ASSISTED BY MODEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WIND GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE. A COUPLE SEVERE HAIL REPORTS EARLIER
ON IN THE AFTERNOON AS STORMS BEGIN ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE GIVEN
RECENT RAINS AND RATHER MOIST PROFILES AS PWATS CLIMB TO NEAR TWO
INCHES. STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
THEN A THIRD ROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. STORMS WOULD HAVE
SIMILAR ISSUES WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY A
SEVERE HAILSTONE OR TWO DURING THE AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY; HOWEVER,
OVERALL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY IS A TICK WEAKER LEADING TO LESS
ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND POTENTIALLY A MORE PULSE THUNDERSTORM
ENVIRONMENT OVERALL. AT THIS TIME THE BEST SEVERE RISK LOOKS TO BE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF I-65 AND WE WOULD NOT BE
SHOCKED TO SEE THE MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TO EXPAND SOUTH
AND EAST WITH LATER UPDATES.
BY THE END OF THE WEEK UPPER RIDGING WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AS STORM CHANCES DECREASE AND
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RISE. AFTER A COUPLE WEEKS OF RAINFALL AND
STORMS, TRUE NORTHERN GULF SUMMER WILL BE UPON US AS HEAT INDICES
LOOK TO CLIMB BACK TOWARDS THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND HIGHS CLIMB INTO
THE MID 90S. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HEAT PRODUCTS BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY MONDAY. NONETHELESS, THINGS LOOK TO GET
TOASTY WITH THE UPCOMING HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN AND A WHOLESALE
PATTERN CHANGE. BB-8
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACCOMPANIED BY DROPS OF CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. LOCALLY IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO HEAVY RAIN
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHIFT MAINLY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BECOMING VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH MID-MORNING BEHIND
A WEAK FRONT MOVING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
DISSIPATE RESULTING IN VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW THIS EVENING
AS A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVES OFFSHORE. A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SHIFTING
SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 92 72 89 74 / 60 30 60 20
PENSACOLA 91 75 88 77 / 40 30 50 20
DESTIN 90 75 87 78 / 10 30 40 20
EVERGREEN 91 69 88 71 / 30 50 40 10
WAYNESBORO 90 70 89 72 / 60 40 50 10
CAMDEN 87 69 87 71 / 30 50 30 10
CRESTVIEW 93 70 89 72 / 30 40 60 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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