379
FXUS64 KMOB 120559
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1259 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO
107 RANGE THIS WEEKEND.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK FOR THE COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BEACHES, BECOMING A HIGH RISK BY TUESDAY.
- COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ITS PLACE, WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. TODAY WILL
LIKELY BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH GENEROUSLY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MORE OF YOUR TYPICAL SUMMER
TIME AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT
OVERALL, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90'S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE 100 TO 107 RANGE. MORNING TEMPERATURES
OFFER NO RELIEF AS MIDDLE TO UPPER 70'S BECOME COMMON TO START THE
DAY SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, WE WILL SEE A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN
CHANGE AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND UPPER
TROUGHING BECOMES DOMINANT. THE SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION, PARTICULARLY AS WE HEAD
INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO
GET INTO THE DETAILS ON THINGS, BUT OVERALL DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THE
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE CONTINGENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
COLD FRONT AS IT STALLS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND ANY
SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE PARENT TROUGH. AS THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION MENTIONED, PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR HIGHLIGHTING THE
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST, TROPICAL AIRMASS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AND
SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AND WILL LAST FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. ONSHORE WINDS STRENGTHEN QUITE A BIT AS WE HEAD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE RISK LIKELY INCREASING TO A HIGH BY
TUESDAY. MM/25
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION IS ISOLATED FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR SUNRISE
BRINGING IFR VISBYS TO SOME LOCALITIES.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
A DIURNAL PATTERN OF LIGHT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MORNING AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING IS
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE SOUTHWEST FLOW EARLY
NEXT WEEK SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY BY MIDWEEK WITH AN
INCREASING ONSHORE COMPONENT. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NEAR AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. MM/JGC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 93 75 93 75 / 20 0 20 0
PENSACOLA 92 78 92 78 / 10 0 20 0
DESTIN 89 79 90 79 / 0 0 10 0
EVERGREEN 95 74 95 74 / 10 10 30 20
WAYNESBORO 94 74 94 74 / 10 10 20 10
CAMDEN 93 74 93 74 / 0 10 40 20
CRESTVIEW 96 74 96 75 / 20 0 30 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page