653
FXUS64 KMOB 080511
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1211 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- HEAT INDICES MAY RISE INTO THE 100-105 DEGREE MARK BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES EAST, EVENTUALLY ABSORBING MORE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY OVER THE EAST COAST, DEEPENING IN THE PROCESS. AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GULF SHIFTS WEST TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
RESPONSE. A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF LOW LEVEL
RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST, MOVING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND DROPPING PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES FROM WELL OVER 2" TO
AROUND 1.6" BY TUESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH DECENT MOISTURE STILL OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA COMBINING WITH THE EAST COAST SHORTWAVE ENERGY,
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CREEP INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY. A LACK OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AND A DROP IN MOISTURE
LEVELS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA DRY MONDAY. WEDNESDAY,
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST SHIFTS FURTHER EAST. IN
COMBINATION WITH A DRIER AIRMASS STILL OVER THE FORECAST AREA,
ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED.
EVEN WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING AWAY, THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL
ALLOW FOR BETTER DAYTIME HEATING, AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 CREEP UPWARD A BIT TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S BY
WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES SEE THE SAME SMALL SHIFT WITH THE DROP
IN MOISTURE LEVELS, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES, TO
AROUND 70 OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, MID 70S ALONG THE COAST
NEAR THE WARMER GULF WATERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS IN COMBINATION WITH A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS FLATTENS THE
UPPER RIDGE ALONG WITH HELPING IT BUILD EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE
AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST. WITH A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES SWIRLING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE (EAST OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEAST AND WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF)
ALONG WITH MOISTURE LEVELS CREEPING UPWARDS THROUGH THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK, POPS CREEP UPWARD FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A DAILY
SEABREEZE OFF THE GULF THE INITIATOR.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, CONSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST, BUT WEAKENS WITH THE
SHIFTING UPPER PATTERN. THE TIDAL RANGE DECREASES THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH A CURRENT MODERATE OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO LOW BY MONDAY. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, THE TIDAL RANGE BEGINS TO INCREASE,
BRINGING A MODERATE RISK BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 AM CDT MON JUN 8 2026
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WERE NOTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT 05Z,
WITH A FEW RESIDUAL RAINSHOWERS STILL MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL BRING
LOCAL DROPS IN CONDITIONS TO UPPER MVFR LEVELS BEFORE MOVING OFF. A
RAIN FREE DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE FORECAST.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY BECOMES
SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY RETURNS TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/73
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 90 72 90 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 75 90 75 89 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 75 89 75 88 / 0 10 0 0
EVERGREEN 71 90 70 92 / 10 20 0 10
WAYNESBORO 71 91 71 92 / 10 10 0 10
CAMDEN 72 89 71 90 / 10 10 0 10
CRESTVIEW 72 92 70 93 / 10 20 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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