684  
FXUS64 KMOB 171821 AAA  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
121 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
SEE UPDATED INFORMATION FOR LAND AREAS AND AVIATION  
DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE CURRENT ZONE FORECAST MAINLY  
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCE OR ISOLATED POPS, GENERALLY ALONG THE I-10  
CORRIDOR AND FURTHER INLAND OVER INLAND SE MS, DEVELOPING ALONG A  
SEABREEZE FRONT ADVANCING INLAND OVER LOWER PORTIONS OF OUR  
FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAIN  
IS EXPECTED. HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES  
RANGING FROM 99 TO 105 DEGREES F ARE STILL EXPECTED. NO  
ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED. 32/EE  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
18Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18.18Z. A FEW LOW CLOUDS  
COMBINED WITH SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS  
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS  
GENERALLY ALONG A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE CIRCULATION JUST NORTH OF  
THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY  
SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH  
MIDDAY WED. 32/EE  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019/  
 
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 
AVIATION...  
12Z ISSUANCE...VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION  
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA WILL BE  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW AND HAVE  
NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN THE LOCAL TAFS. LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH  
WINDS WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE TODAY, EXCEPT BECOMING SOUTHWEST  
5-10 KNOTS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA ALONG A SEABREEZE  
THIS AFTERNOON. /21  
 
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO  
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY, WHILE A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
SLOWLY DRIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE  
SOUTHEAST TX COAST. MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE  
INFLUENCE OF THE BUILDING MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TODAY, WITH  
ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE AND RATHER LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.4 INCHES. WE WILL KEEP A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY  
FORECAST INTACT ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS TODAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD  
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MS AND FAR SOUTHWEST AL,  
WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE, HIGHER  
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.6 AND 1.9 INCHES AND ASSOCIATED  
HIGHER INSTABILITY MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW ISOLATED  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL OPT TO INCLUDE A  
15-20% POP IN THE FORECAST GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF A JANICE, MS TO  
MOBILE, AL LINE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT WILL OTHERWISE PERSIST  
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RANGE IN  
THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND 100  
DEGREES. THESE READINGS COULD APPROACH RECORD LEVELS (RECORD HIGH  
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY INCLUDE 100 DEGREES AT KMOB SET IN 1927 AND  
97 AT KPNS SET IN 1991). MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE  
ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES TO THE LOWER 70S  
INLAND, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST AND BEACHES.  
/21  
 
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...AN UPPER RIDGE  
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER  
DAY OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS IN  
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100. THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MID-  
ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE  
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING AN EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA AS A BACK- DOOR  
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND BRINGS A SLIGHT  
DECREASE TO THE HOT TEMPS. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO PRODUCE  
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  
 
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...DEEP LAYER RIDGING CONTINUES  
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE FLATTENING OUT SOMEWHAT  
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES  
REGION. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY BUT STALL NORTH AND WEST OF THERE DUE TO THE RIDGE OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD  
OUTSIDE OF SMALL CHANCES NEAR THE COAST AND OFFSHORE.  
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH AFTERNOON. /13  
 
MARINE...A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE  
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A  
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW LATE AT NIGHT AND IN THE MORNING WILL  
BECOME LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OF  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES  
AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY  
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA LATE  
THIS WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. /21  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab AL Page
The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab MS Page Main Text Page