271
FXUS64 KMOB 012219
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
519 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 519 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
- SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. HEAVY RAINFALL IN STORMS
MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.
- HEAT RISK CONCERNS: HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 EXPECTED TODAY AND
TOMORROW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
FOR THE COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 519 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DUE TO THE MCS APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 266 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM FOR
MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. /29
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A
TROUGH TRANSITING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE
TO THIS TROUGH, AND WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER, COOLER AIR TO INFILTRATE
THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, WITH RAIN CHANCES DWINDLING
SIGNIFICANTLY MID TO LATE WEEK. SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MAY HANG ON
TO SOME SMALL RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT IS FULLY
THROUGH THE AREA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90'S TODAY AND TOMORROW BECOME NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS
IN THE 80'S WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
ONCE AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE TODAY AND TUESDAY.
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS, BEST CHANCES NEAR AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 84
CORRIDOR. GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE
INTERIOR, WEAKER TOWARDS THE COAST, COUPLED WITH THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE AND 4,000 TO 5,000J/KG OF CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOOSELY
ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE'LL
LIKELY BE TWO AREAS OF FOCUS, WITH THE FIRST BEING ON AN EVENTUAL
MCS TO DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA IN NORTHERN ALABAMA THAT SAGS
SOUTHWARD WITH TIME, LIKELY REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL HAVE THE BEST THREAT
FOR ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OWING TO THE "STRONGER" SHEAR WITH
PRIMARY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. FURTHER SOUTH NEARER
THE COAST, AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE OFF ON
WHATEVER SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND. SHEAR
IS MUCH WEAKER DOWN SOUTH, AND THE EXPECTATION WOULD BE FOR MORE
PULSE TYPE STORMS THAN ANYTHING. THESE STILL COULD POSE A THREAT
FOR SMALL HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN ANY MICROBURSTS. ANY
STORMS TODAY WILL POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN REMAIN
STATIONARY OR TRAIN OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS OR AREAS THAT WERE
HARD HIT THE PAST WEEK. WHILE SOME RISK FOR STRONG STORMS PERSISTS
TUESDAY, WEAK SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK
WITH MAIN HAZARDS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. ONCE AGAIN,
HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
WITH ANY SLOW MOVING STORMS. MM/25
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(AROUND 21Z), WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THE STORMS. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON, BECOMING VARIABLE SUNSET. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS TODAY.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AND THEN EASTERLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, STRENGTHENING TO MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
STRONG FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS INCREASE TO 5 TO 7
FEET BY MID WEEK. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 91 69 81 / 30 50 60 20
PENSACOLA 76 91 70 81 / 30 40 60 10
DESTIN 77 89 70 82 / 40 40 60 10
EVERGREEN 73 92 65 81 / 60 50 40 0
WAYNESBORO 73 91 67 80 / 40 50 30 0
CAMDEN 73 89 64 80 / 60 30 30 0
CRESTVIEW 73 93 65 81 / 50 50 60 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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