407
FXUS64 KMOB 041755
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
- HEAT INDICES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 100 TO 105 RANGE THIS
WEEKEND THEN TREND TO HIGHER VALUES OF 100-108 FOR TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN LIKELY OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CONUS, WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, WITH WEAK SURFACE FLOW OVER THE LOCAL AREA. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER IN OVER THE AREA, WHICH
IS HELPING TO AID IN VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER OUR INTERIOR
AREAS. THE LACK OF FORCING IS KEEPING THIS ACTIVITY SHORT LIVED,
BUT A QUICK SHOWER/STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES WILL REALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY, AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES AND DIGS INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FURTHER
EAST AND PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR ANY STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.
WE'LL LIKELY SEE EARLY SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES STILL LINGERING FROM TODAY'S ACTIVITY. SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING MORE
NUMEROUS AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST. BY MONDAY, THE TROUGH
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS, PUSHING A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ORGANIZATION
WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY, ANY STORM THAT CAN
MAINTAIN A HEALTHY UPDRAFT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF WIND
GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE EVENING, AS WE LOSE OUR DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
TROUGH CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE BOUNDARY MAY STALL
ALONG THE COAST ON TUESDAY, LEAVING THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH ON
WHEN/WHERE THIS BOUNDARY WILL STALL.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE HOT AND
DRY. RIDGING BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST, BRINGING ENOUGH
SUBSIDENCE TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON, AIDED BY DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS, WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /73
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT REMAINS
UNLIKELY SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS. A GREATER COVERAGE
OF STORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY, WITH A PROB30 FOR TSRA INCLUDED
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. /73
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /73
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 92 75 91 / 0 40 20 60
PENSACOLA 79 93 79 92 / 0 20 30 50
DESTIN 80 91 81 90 / 0 10 30 40
EVERGREEN 74 93 73 91 / 10 40 20 50
WAYNESBORO 74 93 73 91 / 10 60 20 70
CAMDEN 75 91 73 89 / 10 50 20 50
CRESTVIEW 74 94 75 92 / 0 20 10 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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