015
FXUS64 KMOB 211739
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1239 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL ZONES AND NEARSHORE WATERS
OF ALABAMA AND ALL OFFSHORE WATERS. TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR COASTAL ZONES AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL ALABAMA. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
- DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
SURF WARNING IN EFFECT STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ALONG ALL BEACHES.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI UNTIL 7 PM
TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MULTIPLE HAZARDS REMAIN IN EFFECT AS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA BEGINS
PROGRESSING ACROSS OUR OFFSHORE MARINE WATERS. BERTHA CURRENTLY SITS
DUE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTER RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE, BRINGING BRIEF
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BERTHA
BRIEFLY JOGGED NORTH THIS MORNING BUT HAS RESUMED ITS WESTERLY
COURSE, WITH A SLIGHTLY BROADER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELD TO
ITS NORTHEAST. GIVEN THIS, THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS EXPANDED
TO INCLUDE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES
AND ADJACENT MARINE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION TO THIS, THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE COASTAL HAZARDS IN PLACE
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR ALL BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. A HIGH SURF WARNING
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SURF HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 11 FEET ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHEST SURF
HEIGHTS REACHING COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY THIS
EVENING, AND PORTIONS OF THE ALABAMA COAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE HIGH SURF HEIGHTS AND HIGH RIP CURRENTS WILL RESULT IN
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS. RESIDENTS AND TOURISTS ARE STRONGLY
ENCOURAGED TO STAY OUT OF THE WATER. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO
EXPECTED OWING TO THE STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA.
THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR THE ALABAMA COAST INCLUDING MOBILE BAY, EASTWARD
THROUGH ESCAMBIA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR MINOR INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND DURING PERIODS OF HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGH SURF HEIGHTS COMBINED WITH THE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MINOR BEACH EROSION.
GIVEN THE LOPSIDED NATURE OF BERTHA THANKS TO STRONG NORTHERLY WIND
SHEAR, A GOOD CHUNK OF THE AREA OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO
INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH- CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SEE PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 90'S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS PRESENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA HEAT INDICES AROUND 108 THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE REST OF THE AREA SEEING HEAT INDICES TOP OUT IN THE 100 TO 107
RANGE TODAY. HEAT INDICES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THAT 100 TO 107 RANGE
AREAWIDE AGAIN WEDNESDAY. MM/25
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS THE REMAINS OF BERTHA CONTINUE TO MOVE
OFF ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
WHILST THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE
RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING POST
TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF, TRYING
TO WORK ITS WAY INLAND. A POST SYSTEM BOUNDARY IS LEFT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA, LIMITING THE NORTHWARD SPREAD OF THIS DRIER AIR. THE
MAIN EFFECT OF THIS DRIER AIR IS A DECREASE IN POPS OVER NORTHERN
GULF WATERS, BUT LEAVING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREA, MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND SEASONAL NORMS (UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S) ARE
EXPECTED, THOUGH THE HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS AT
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORM LEVELS (MID TO UPPER 70S). THE MORE
SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES KEEP MAX HEAT INDICES BELOW HEAT ADVISORY
LEVELS, TOPPING OUT IN THE 100-107 DEGREE RANGE BOTH DAYS.
SATURDAY ON, A MEAN UPPER TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE EAST COAST, SHIFTING
THE UPPER RIDGE WEST A BIT, WITH A BIT DRIER AIRMASS MOVING SOUTH
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA MOVES SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. POPS DROP TO NEAR ZERO WEST
OF THE ALABAMA, WITH A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDER STILL
POSSIBLE EAST BY THE COMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE UPPER
RIDGE ( WEST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER) RISE TO WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS, TOPPING OUT NEAR 100 BY MONDAY. EAST OF THE ALABAMA, THE
TEMPERATURE RISE IS LESS DRAMATIC AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES LESS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SEE A BIT OF A CLIMB, TO THE MID/UPPER 70S BY MONDAY.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, THE HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS EASES TO A LOW TO MODERATE FRIDAY ON AS CONDITIONS
SETTLE OVER THE GULF.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
AS TS BERTHA PASSES SOUTH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, CONDITIONS
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WILL DETERIORATE, WITH LOW END MVFR CIGS,
AND EASTERLY WINDS 20KTS AND GUSTY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT OPERATIONS INTO WEDNESDAY. ALONG AND NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR, LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
TS TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WILL MOVE WEST ALONG THE COAST IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
WILL IMPACT THE GULF WATERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAVES
WITH THIS SYSTEM PEAK AT 10 TO 15 FEET TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 94 76 91 77 / 30 40 70 60
PENSACOLA 90 78 89 79 / 80 90 70 50
DESTIN 88 80 89 81 / 90 90 70 50
EVERGREEN 90 74 90 74 / 50 30 60 30
WAYNESBORO 96 75 95 75 / 0 0 20 20
CAMDEN 90 75 90 75 / 10 10 40 10
CRESTVIEW 89 75 89 76 / 90 80 80 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALZ263>266.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ202.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.
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