235
FXUS64 KMOB 202336
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
636 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
- THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY VALUES, GUSTY WINDS, AND
MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TUESDAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR LOCAL AREA BEACHES.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL PUSH INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT OVER THE CENTRAL US AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE WEEK. FOR OUR AREA, A WEAK
SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASED
CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA, NO RAIN IS ANTICIPATED WITH ITS PASSAGE.
OUTSIDE OF THIS FEATURE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES FROM THE APPALACHIANS, DOWN
INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD, OUR WINDS WILL
ALSO SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY TODAY TO MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY/SOUTHERLY BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 TODAY WILL INCREASE TO
THE LOW TO MID 80S (POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 80S) BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
LOWS TONIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S WILL INCREASE TO THE LOW
TO MID 60S BY LATE WEEK.
THE PATTERN LIKELY BEGINS TO CHANGE BY LATE FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS AND THE SUBTROPICAL JET
BECOMES MORE ACTIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN US. WITH DEEP MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY INCREASE BY THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THIS PATTERN
CHANGE, ALONG WITH ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING A RATHER DIFFLUENT PATTERN
DEVELOPING ALOFT, RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE
FOR THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO
NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MACHINE-
LEARNING/CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE HAS BEEN PAINTING A RATHER BROAD AREA
OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH EACH DAY
THROUGHOUT THIS TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT
THIS POINT LOOK TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST, THINGS ARE BOUND TO
CHANGE SINCE WE ARE STILL 5-7 DAYS OUT. THEREFORE, WE WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT/TUESDAY WILL INCREASE TO A
MODERATE RISK TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. /96
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND
OVERNIGHT BECOMING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND TOMORROW. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY. THIS GENERAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY, TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY BY THIS WEEKEND. /96
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT MON APR 20 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR ALABAMA AND FLORIDA
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES (AS LOW 15-20%), GUSTY WINDS (GUSTS AS HIGH AS
20-25 MPH), AND MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS
FIRE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY FOR THE SAME AREAS
(ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS MAY BE A BIT LOWER), SO ANOTHER RED FLAG
WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY. HUMIDITY VALUES DO BEGIN TO INCREASE
BY MID TO LATE WEEK, HOWEVER, WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY, FIRE CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 50 81 58 80 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 57 78 61 78 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 59 78 63 78 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 46 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 47 82 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 48 82 55 81 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 46 85 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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