706
FXUS64 KMOB 281926
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
126 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/
UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS, WITH
ITS AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST, THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON, A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ON TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THIS TIME. A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE MOVED OVER THE LAND AREAS AND BEGIN TO PROGRESS OVER THE
MARINE WATERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN, ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW (AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE) WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY
LATE THIS EVENING, RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN START TO INCREASE FROM
THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS
WELL AS INLAND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY THROUGH
MORNING. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 DURING THIS TIME, WHICH IS ALSO THE AREA WHERE MODEL
PWATS ARE GREATEST (BETWEEN 1.30-1.45 INCHES). SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE
COAST AND OVER THE MARINE AREA AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF
SOME INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON, GENERALLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. ALTHOUGH, THIS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AND ELEVATED, AS
MLCAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN TO ONLY BE AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 84. THUS, HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS.
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE RETURN OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN, MODEL PROBABILITIES ARE INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF DENSE
FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE MARINE WATERS, BAYS, AND SOUNDS
STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN SPREADING INLAND BY LATE THIS
EVENING. AT THIS TIME, EXPECTING THE DENSE FOG TO MAINLY IMPACT
AREAS NEAR THE COAST, WITH PATCHY FOG OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT.
THUS, HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COASTAL ALABAMA, THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES IN
MISSISSIPPI BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE OVER THE LAND AREAS BY MID-MORNING ON MONDAY, SO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED A BIT HIGHER THAN
ORIGINALLY FORECAST, WITH CURRENT VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PERSISTENT
MOISTURE, NOT EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DROP TOO MUCH.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING THE UPPER
60S, ARE ANTICIPATED. THEN, AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OVER
THE AREA ON MONDAY, HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S
GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND THEN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. LASTLY, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. /26
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1213 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021/
AVIATION...
18Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT THE TAF
SITES AT ISSUANCE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN AT MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL DECLINE
SHARPLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH LIFR TO IFR EXPECTED
AREA-WIDE. THIS IS DUE TO LOW CIGS BUT ALSO LOW VIS AS WELL, SINCE
FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DENSE SEA
FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS RIGHT ALONG
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING.
NOT EXPECTING THE DENSE FOG TO LIFT OVER THE LAND AREAS UNTIL MID-
MORNING ON MONDAY. IN TERMS OF RAIN, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WITH THIS WILL COME INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ANTICIPATED OVER INLAND
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH- CENTRAL
ALABAMA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BUT PERHAPS A SLIGHT RECOVERY TO HIGH-END
IFR IS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS
WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO BE BETWEEN 5-10
KNOTS THIS EVENING. WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD
FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE MORE EASTERLY NEAR THE COAST AND
MORE NORTHERLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 BY MID-MORNING MONDAY, RANGING
FROM 5-10 KNOTS. /26
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
ALZ261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR
MSZ078-079.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
GMZ630>636-650-655.
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB
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