628
FXUS64 KMOB 221734
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
FOR LOCAL AREA BEACHES.
- RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE REGION MAY BRING SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN STATES. A LARGE UPPER TROF
MEANWHILE ADVANCES/EXPANDS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL STATES,
THEN BECOMES ORIENTED MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST STATES TO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERN
STATES UPPER RIDGE DAMPENS OUT IN RESPONSE, AND AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW BRINGS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS RETURNING TO MOST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, WHICH
TREND TO LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON
SATURDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS NEXT SYSTEM
BRINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY WHICH LOOKS TO MEANDER OVER THE GENERAL AREA GOING
INTO WEDNESDAY. HAVE STAYED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
SUNDAY, THEN MONDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS. CHANCE
POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY, THEN HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LIMITED
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE 850 MB JET REACHES
AROUND 25 KNOTS. MLCAPE VALUES LOOK SUFFICIENT COMBINED WITH THE
RELATIVELY MARGINAL SHEAR VALUES IN THIS PORTION TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN A
MODERATE RISK FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY, WITH A LOW RISK FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
TURN SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON WHILE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITY IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS TOMORROW ACROSS INLAND AREAS. WINDS PICK UP AND
TURN EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CDT WED APR 22 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN
BECOMES SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 81 60 81 62 / 10 10 0 0
PENSACOLA 78 63 78 66 / 10 0 10 0
DESTIN 77 64 78 66 / 10 0 10 0
EVERGREEN 83 54 85 56 / 20 10 10 0
WAYNESBORO 82 57 83 59 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN 82 56 83 57 / 10 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 83 54 84 57 / 10 10 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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