063
FXUS64 KMOB 271224
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
724 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 646 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONTINUES TO WORSEN INTO MIDWEEK. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY AND AN EXTREME HEAT
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL AREAS ON TUESDAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN MIDWEEK FOR
OUR FLORIDA BEACHES.
- DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, BUT IT WILL
STILL REMAIN HOT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE AREA REMAINS POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WAS CENTERED
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY HAS INITIATED A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL
ALABAMA AS OF 1130Z. LATEST NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS THROUGH MID MORNING WITH
A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PROGRESSING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. SOME OF
THE GUIDANCE IS REGENERATING STORMS ALONG THE OUTFLOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER OUR FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY NEARER THE
COAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES EXCEEDING
2500J/KG ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS
MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL LIKELY BE THE BUILDING HEAT AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS MAY MIX DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. REGARDLESS, THE
COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY ESPECIALLY
EAST OF I-65 WILL LIKELY SUPPORT HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 108F AND
112F BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY.
THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO BE GOOD FOR NOW AS THERE DOES
REMAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVENTUAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW CAN ENHANCE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE, ESPECIALLY WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE INLAND
PENETRATING SEA BREEZE, THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED HIGHER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED AND INCREASES IN POPS MAY
BE NEEDED PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WHERE THIS BOUNDARY
INTERACTION IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR. /JLH
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
A LARGE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL STATES WHICH EXTENDS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES PERSISTS THROUGH
TUESDAY WHILE AN UPPER TROF WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG THE EAST COAST.
A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION
WILL TEND TO PROMOTE A WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON. A FORECAST PROBLEM
THROUGH TUESDAY IS WHETHER OR NOT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT MOVING INTO THE AREA (FROM THE NORTH) AND/OR
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE SEA BREEZE. THERE
APPEARS TO BE SOME CONSENSUS AMONG CAMS THAT DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
SEA BREEZE IS THE MORE FAVORED SOLUTION, BUT THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT. HAVE FOR NOW CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MOSTLY EAST OF THE TOMBIGBEE AND
MOBILE RIVERS THEN FOR TUESDAY WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
THE UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES AND RETROGRADES A BIT ON WEDNESDAY, THEN
EXPANDS TO ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS PAST THURSDAY
AND GOING INTO SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WELL OFF TO THE NORTH LOOKS
TO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROF INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON WEDNESDAY WHICH MEANDERS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY LINGERS INTO FRIDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIKELY POPS NEAR
THE COAST ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE LOW IS MEANWHILE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS BY FRIDAY AND ADVANCE TOWARDS THE FORECAST
AREA ON SATURDAY. HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM.
DANGEROUS HEAT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY, AND LIKELY MUCH OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH MOSTLY UPPER
90S TO AROUND 100 ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK
TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES ON MONDAY
WILL BE MOSTLY 108-111 THEN FOR TUESDAY VALUES OF 108-113 ARE
EXPECTED, WITH THE HIGHER VALUES NEAR THE COAST. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY, THEN FOR TUESDAY AN
EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES
WITH A HEAT ADVISORY ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BECOME NECESSARY ON WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY INCLUDE AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HERE IS A TABLE OF THE RECORDS AND OUR CURRENT
FORECAST.
MONDAY, JULY 27
MOBILE RECORD HIGH: 99 (1968) / FORECAST: 97
PENSACOLA RECORD HIGH: 98 (1970) / FORECAST: 97
TUESDAY, JULY 28
MOBILE RECORD HIGH: 100 (1968) / FORECAST: 98
PENSACOLA RECORD HIGH: 98 (1993) / FORECAST: 97
WEDNESDAY, JULY 29
MOBILE RECORD HIGH: 100 (1877) / FORECAST: 98
PENSACOLA RECORD HIGH: 100 (1986) / FORECAST: 97
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, THEN FOR
TUESDAY A LOW RISK IS ANTICIPATED FOR ALABAMA BEACHES WITH A
MODERATE RISK FOR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES. FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR ALABAMA
BEACHES WITH A HIGH RISK FOR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES.
/29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS NORTHWEST
WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
PROB30 FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WAS MAINTAINED
WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 WHICH WOULD
POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE TERMINALS. LOCAL REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH INCREASED WIND GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED IF
STORMS IMPACT A TAF SITE. THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 27/20Z
AND 28/01Z. OTHERWISE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR OUT LATER TONIGHT.
PATCHY FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN AREAS WHERE RAIN OCCURS, BUT
OVERALL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. /JLH
MARINE
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
A DIURNAL WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EARLY EACH MORNING TURNING WESTERLY
TO OCCASIONALLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY BY
MID WEEK WITH WINDS AND WAVES LOCALLY HIGHER NEAR ANY STORMS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE GULF THROUGH MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. /JLH
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 97 77 98 77 / 20 10 20 10
PENSACOLA 97 80 97 81 / 30 20 20 0
DESTIN 94 81 94 82 / 30 20 20 0
EVERGREEN 97 75 98 76 / 20 20 0 0
WAYNESBORO 99 77 100 76 / 10 20 0 0
CAMDEN 96 76 98 78 / 30 20 0 0
CRESTVIEW 99 76 99 78 / 30 20 20 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ051>060-261-
262.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ALZ263>266.
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR FLZ201>206.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...NONE.
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