657
FXUS64 KMOB 161714
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1214 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- AN INCREASING RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
AS PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECT THE AREA.
- MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG THE COAST. WIDESPREAD HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S RETURNS ON FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
A LARGE UPPER TROF PATTERN GENERALLY PERSISTS OVER THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL STATES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK BEFORE
PROGRESSING OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT THEN EXIT WELL OFF TO THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY, AND
IN THE PROCESS BRING A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEK, AND WITH A SERIES OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF, WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES ANTICIPATED
EACH DAY. MEANWHILE, POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ONE (PTC ONE)
CURRENTLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE JUST OFF
THE TEXAS COAST AND MOVE BACK INLAND IN EXTREME EASTERN TEXAS OR
SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON PTC ONE.
BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK FOR PTC ONE, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE WEAKENED
TO A DEPRESSION OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY THURSDAY MORNING. PAST
THIS POINT, REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING ENHANCED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO THE FORECAST AREA ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AND
POTENTIALLY INTO FRIDAY AS WELL.
..HEAVY RAINFALL
THE RAINY PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
FORECASTED THROUGH THE WEEK. WE ARE UNDER RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM THE WPC FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. MOST OF THE AREA IS IN A
SLIGHT FOR DAYS 1, 2, AND 4 WITH DAY 5 HAVING A MARGINAL INTRODUCED
WITH THE MORNING UPDATES. MOST NOTABLY, OUR DAY 3 RISK HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A MODERATE FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR CWA AND BY
THURSDAY OUR SOILS WILL BE MOSTLY SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS
OF RAINFALL.
THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS CLOSE TO FULLY SATURATED BASED ON
SURROUNDING 12Z RAOBS. OUR PWATS HAVE BEEN VERY HIGH IN THE 2.1-2.4
INCH RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT AND ABOVE THE DAILY MAX FOR
CLIMATOLOGY. ENSEMBLES SHOW THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OF 2+ INCH
PWATS PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TOTALS OF 4-7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGHER END
PRECIPITATION TOTALS UP TO 10+ INCHES COULD BE REALIZED WHERE
CONVECTIVE TRAINING SETS UP. THESE LOCATIONS ARE HARD TO PINPOINT AT
THIS TIME DUE TO SOME ENSEMBLE DIFFERENCES AND CAMS JUST NOW
EXTENDING THROUGH SOME OF THE PERIOD, BUT THIS ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS
HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH RATES TOPPING OUT AT 3-4 INCHES/HOUR.
HREF 6 HOUR LPMM SHOWS SOME AREAS OF 3-6 INCHES OVER SOME PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA BOTH TODAY, SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IN
URBAN AREAS, LOCATIONS OF TRAINING CONVECTION, AND AREAS WITH
PREVIOUS HEAVY RAINFALL. OUR 1 HOUR FFG HAS DECREASED SOME SINCE
YESTERDAY AND A MAJORITY OF OUR AREA IS AROUND 2.2-3 INCHES, WHERE
THE LOWEST VALUES ARE FOR OUR INLAND MS/AL COUNTIES. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR MS COUNTIES FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS AND INCLUDE MOST OF OUR
CWA. SS/97
..SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED TODAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 500-1500 J/KG
TONIGHT. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL TYPICALLY BE 30 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH AN ESSENTIALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THAT SAID,
BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE AND THERE COULD BE
SOME INTERACTIONS WITH WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES THAT COULD ALLOW FOR
MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO THIS
POTENTIAL. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO
BE FROM THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM LOOKS TO AID IN ENHANCING SHEAR VALUES. SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR OUR ENTIRE AREA DURING THIS TIME FRAME DUE TO THIS
POTENTIAL. /29
..COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD BECOME A CONCERN FRIDAY WHERE HIGH TIDE
COMBINES WITH PERSISTENT INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. P-ETSS GUIDANCE AT
MOBILE STATE DOCKS SHOWS 1.4 FEET MHHW WEDNESDAY AND 1.6 FEET MHHW
THURSDAY. VALUES ELSEWHERE ARE BELOW THE 2.0 FEET MHHW THRESHOLD,
BUT SOME MINOR INUNDATION COULD OCCUR FOR TYPICAL TROUBLE SPOTS LIKE
DAUPHIN ISLAND AND FORT PICKENS. SS/97
..BEACH FORECAST
THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS NOW A HIGH FOR ALL FLORIDA AND ALABAMA
BEACHES. NWPS SHOWS INCREASING WAVE ACTION TO 4-6 FEET BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WHICH MAY NEED A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES. SS/97
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
A MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA AS AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRINGS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FLOW OVER A STALLED SURFACE FRONT OVER
THE AREA. ADD IN PERIODS OF RAIN, IMPACTS TO OPERATIONS ARE TO BE
EXPECTED. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, NORTHWEST TO NORTH NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GRADUALLY TREND TO A MODERATE
TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW
TRANSITIONS TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA FROM
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 86 77 85 / 80 80 80 90
PENSACOLA 76 87 80 86 / 80 80 60 80
DESTIN 76 87 80 86 / 90 70 60 90
EVERGREEN 69 85 75 83 / 60 80 50 90
WAYNESBORO 70 86 74 82 / 30 60 70 100
CAMDEN 69 84 73 81 / 50 60 40 100
CRESTVIEW 71 85 77 84 / 80 80 60 90
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
GMZ630>632-634-650-655-670-675.
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