178
FXUS64 KMOB 111738
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1238 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
- AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 101 TO 107 THROUGH
WEEKEND, WITH LOCALIZED SPOTS POTENTIALLY REACHING AROUND 110.
- COVERAGE OF STORMS INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. HEAVY
RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, IS POSSIBLE.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SETS UP ALONG THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BEACHES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A MODERATE RISK CONTINUES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF AREA BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WE WILL BE MOVING INTO A TRANSITION PERIOD FROM TYPICAL CENTRAL GULF
COAST JULY THUNDERSTORMS TO A MORE ANOMALOUSLY WET PATTERN TO CLOSE
OUT THE WEEKEND AND OPENING UP THE NEW WEEK. BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD
INDICATES A LARGE H20 UPPER LOW/GYRE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WITH
A WESTWARD SPOKE EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. WITH THIS FEATURE
NEAR-BY ALONG WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE, PWAT'S
1.8 TO 2.0" MORE ALIGNED OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA,
AND INSTABILITY RESULTS IN SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
LOOK TO BE ALIGNED GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ANDALUSIA AL TO
NEW AUGUSTA MS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY SURFACE WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING BUT BECOMING LESS
IN COVERAGE WITH TIME.
THE PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION MORE SO LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BEGINS TO SINK SOUTHWARD AND WILL HAVE
MORE OF AN EFFECT ON OUR REGION. WHILE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE TROUGH IN THE FORM OF A SHORTWAVE WITH A CUTOFF UPPER LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BECOMES DETACHED AND MIGRATES
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY NOON
ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE WILL THEN RETROGRADE MORE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY UNDER A LARGE ELONGATED UPPER HIGH PRESSURE
AREA SITUATED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE, AN EAST
TO WEST QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
ACROSS THE DELMARVA THIS WEEKEND SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MS TO ACROSS THE TN VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT LOOKS TO STALL IN
PLACE THEREAFTER. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE
DEEPLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH FORCING ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
BEING ENHANCED FURTHER BY LARGER SCALE ASCENT OFFERED FROM ALOFT
WITH SOUTHWARD APPROACH OF TROUGH. HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT GETS IS
DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE DUE TO CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
CONTAMINATION/RAIN INDUCED "COLD POOLS". WITH LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE PWAT'S INCREASING TO A RANGE OF 2.0 TO 2.3"
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE FAVORED EACH DAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
WPC HAS OUR ENTIRE AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF
4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL NOT ONLY ON SUNDAY BUT FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS WELL. A SMALL SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS OUTLOOKED ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR MONDAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE A CORRIDOR OF 3 TO 6" OF RAINFALL FOR
THIS EVENT IF TRAINING OF SLOW-MOVING. EFFICIENT RAIN RATE
PRODUCING STORMS ARE ABLE TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE,
WE WOULD ANTICIPATE A GENERAL 1 TO 3" OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT TO RESUME TO TYPICAL MID-JULY WEATHER
THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING 89 TO 93 MOST AREAS SUNDAY WILL NOT BE TOO
FAR FROM CLIMO WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING 101-107 DEGREES WITH
ISOLATED SHORT DURATION INSTANCES AS HIGH AS AROUND 110 DEGREES.
HIGHS TO TREND MORE BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80'S THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO INCREASE CLOUD AND RAIN COVERAGE.
HIGHS REBOUND BACK INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90'S THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD. LOWS TONIGHT TO BE ABOUT 4 TO 9 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
AVERAGE WITH MIDDLE 70S INLAND, UPPER 70S FOR OUR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES, TO AROUND 80 DEGREES AT THE BEACHES. LOWS TREND IN
LOWER TO MID 70'S THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE LATEST RIP CURRENT GUIDANCE THAT OUR
FLORIDA BEACHES WILL BE BREAKING INTO THE LOWER END HIGH RISK
CATEGORIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THUS, HAVE UPGRADED THE MODERATE
IN THESE AREAS TO A HIGH RISK. REMAINDER OF AREA BEACHES ARE HELD
AT MODERATE RISK. /10
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE, OUTSIDE OF
ANY STORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LOCALLY REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORIES AND
PRODUCE GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AT TIMES. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
A GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES LIGHT TO MODERATE ON
SUNDAY. A MORE MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW SETS UP MONDAY. LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET IN HEIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY REACHING 4 FEET LATE MONDAY. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 92 74 86 / 20 70 70 90
PENSACOLA 80 93 77 89 / 20 60 80 80
DESTIN 81 91 78 88 / 20 50 90 90
EVERGREEN 74 92 72 86 / 10 60 60 90
WAYNESBORO 75 92 72 86 / 10 70 70 80
CAMDEN 75 89 71 85 / 10 80 80 70
CRESTVIEW 75 93 73 88 / 20 70 70 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page