084
FXUS64 KMOB 041728
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
- ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TODAY, TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH FLOODING
REMAINING POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
MAINLY FOR COASTAL ALABAMA DURING HIGH TIDE WITH WATER LEVELS
UP TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
PLENTY TO DISCUSS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WE’RE CONTINUING TO SEE
ONGOING ROUNDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. TAKING A STEP BACK AND
LOOKING ALOFT REVEALS THE SAME GENERAL WEAKNESS/BROAD TROUGHING
REGIME AND ASSOCIATED PVA HELPING TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD LIFT.
MEANWHILE IN THE LOW-LEVELS, SEEING BROAD CURVATURE/INVERTED
TROUGHING WITH PLENTY OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT HELPING TO PUMP
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, NORTH. PROXIMITY MODEL
SOUNDINGS SPEAK VOLUMES WITH A VERY MOIST ADIABATIC THERMAL
PROFILE AND ATTENDANT SKINNY CAPE MEANING MOISTURE, YEAH,
DEFINITELY NOT LACKING ANY AT ALL. NEARBY RADAR TRENDS HAVE
ILLUSTRATED SEVERAL SMALL-SCALE LOW TO MID-LEVEL MCV’S LINGERING
FROM REMNANT COMPLEXES OVERNIGHT, DRIFTING EAST ACROSS NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS. IT’S AN INTERESTING BATTLE BETWEEN REMNANT
SUBSIDENCE FROM STRATIFORM (WORKED OVER) AIRMASS POCKETS VERSUS
WHEREVER THESE MCV’S OR REMNANT BOUNDARIES CAN OUTBALANCE THE
SUBSIDENCE AND RE-DEVELOP NEW SHOWERS. OVERALL MESSY, AND
CHALLENGING TO TARGET SPECIFIC AREAS UNTIL THESE MESOSCALE
FEATURES SHOW THEMSELVES. THIS IS A TYPE OF REGIME/PATTERN GIVEN
HOW CHAOTIC IT IS THAT CAN CAUSE SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER LOCAL
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME, SOME AREAS COULD GROSSLY BE UNDERDONE WITH FORECAST
RAIN TOTALS. NOT A SIMPLE FORECAST AND EASY TO JUST GO WITH ANY
SINGLE MODEL STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FORECAST, AND DEFINITELY NOT
BLENDED GUIDANCE. WILL MENTION, OVERALL, HREF/REFS COMBO DID QUITE
WELL WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK MESOLOW AND THE ATTENDANT
LIFT EAST OF THE LOW CENTER, WHICH CAUSED HIGHER RAIN TOTALS
ACROSS NW FL, BUT DID OVER CORRECT A BIT AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS
MOISTURE RICH PATTERN. THE NEXT FEATURE TO MONITOR WILL BE THE
NEXT LARGER-SCALE LIFT/PVA OVER SE LA THAT WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD
MORE SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AGAIN, IF ANY
SMALL-SCALE BOUNDARIES/LIFT OVERCOME LARGER-SCALE REMNANT
SUBSIDENCE, SLOW-MOVING MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS (PRODUCING RAIN
RATES UPWARDS OF 2-4/HR) COULD QUICKLY LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGHER
RAINFALL TOTALS IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME CAUSING FLASH FLOODING.
KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE SAME AREAS THROUGH
TONIGHT, BUT WILL RE-ASSESS AS WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR NEAR-TERM
GUIDANCE AND TRENDS.
ADDITIONALLY, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE ONGOING RISK FOR
WATERSPOUTS ACROSS MARINE AREAS, AND COULD SEE A LOW/ISOLATED RISK
FOR TORNADOES ALONG THE COAST AS SPC HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK
(THREAT LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR THIS LOWER-END CONDITIONAL RISK.
SHOULD ADDITIONAL MESO LOW/MCV’S FORM, ESPECIALLY FROM THE COMPLEX
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, WE COULD SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF GREATER/SHALLOW
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LEADING TO A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES. THIS WOULD BE
MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
TONIGHT, CAM’S CONTINUE TO INDICATE INCREASING CAA FROM THE NORTH
AS A FRONT DRAPES SOUTH, HELPING TO “PUSH” THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH.
HOWEVER, WE’LL CONTINUE TO SEE LINGERING LIGHT/STRATIFORM (OR EVEN
DRIZZLE) AT TIMES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THEN AS CAA BUILDS
SOUTH, CAMS INDICATE A RE-FIRE OF MARINE CONVECTION JUST OFFSHORE,
MAINLY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WHICH EVENTUALLY SAGS
EVERYTHING SOUTH OF OUR 60NM ZONES. WHAT IS LEFT (SLOPED ALOFT) IS
REMNANT PVA KEEPING A RELATIVELY THICK LAYER OF CLOUDS OVER US
TOMORROW BUT SHOULD STEADILY DRY OUT WITH TIME.
BEYOND THAT GOING INTO TUESDAY/MID-WEEK, CLOUDS REMAIN TUCKED IN
FOR A FEW AREAS, BUT PERHAPS A FEW INTERVALS OF SUNSHINE HERE AND
THERE, THANKFULLY, A BIT COOLER BUT STILL HUMID. OVERALL, NOT TOO
BAD GOING INTO MIDWEEK
THEN LATE-WEEK, YES, FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WHERE REMNANT
BROAD TROUGHING DIPS FAR SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GULF,
WHERE PVA BREAKS OFF AND MEANDERS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE
NORMAL CAMPECHE GYRE AND GENERALLY MODEST/TO SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS COULD PROMOTE SLOW/STEADY TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. NHC HIGHLIGHTS A 30% CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS IN THIS REGION. STILL A LOT OF UNKNOWNS THIS FAR OUT
FOR NOW IN REGARDS TO IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS, HOW STRONG IT COULD
BECOME OR WHERE IT ENDS UP. DEEPMIND GUIDANCE HINTS AT INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE 30% AREA AIMING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GULF,
BUT SUITE OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS EXTREMELY WIDE. DEFINITELY
SOMETHING TO CHECK BACK ON.
REGARDLESS, EASTERLY FLOW WILL PICK UP MID TO LATE WEEK LIKELY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS SURF/RIP CURRENTS WITH
LONG-TERM FETCH LEADING TO COASTAL FLOODING. COASTAL/MARINE
INTEREST WILL NEED TO STAY UPDATED TO THE FORECAST ESPECIALLY
GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
A WIDE SWATH OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT TERMINALS FOR THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL DRIVE LOCAL IMPACTS,
RANGING FROM IFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND SIMILAR VISIBILITIES.
LATEST CAMS SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL NOT BE ANY APPRECIABLE
IMPROVEMENTS IN TERMS OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THRU MONDAY DAYTIME
HOURS.
..COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED AGAIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COMBINES WITH THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE.
WHILE WE ARE COMING OUT OF A SPRING TIDE CYCLE, INUNDATION
POTENTIAL WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER, THUS, WENT WITH AN ADVISORY FOR
ONLY COASTAL ALABAMA WATERS.
..BEACH FORECAST
A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY, DECREASING TO MODERATE TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO
HIGH WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
OUTSIDE OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS, OVERALL LIGHT WINDS
AND SEAS OF LESS THAN 3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL START TO PUSH THROUGH THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AND WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST TO
BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OUT IN THE OPEN
WATERS. SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THESE WINDS AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 7
FEET CREATING ROUGH CONDITIONS OFFSHORE. THESE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 68 82 67 83 / 60 30 10 20
PENSACOLA 70 81 69 82 / 70 40 30 40
DESTIN 72 82 70 82 / 80 60 30 40
EVERGREEN 66 81 64 83 / 60 40 10 10
WAYNESBORO 66 82 64 84 / 70 40 10 10
CAMDEN 66 83 63 84 / 60 30 10 0
CRESTVIEW 67 79 65 81 / 80 50 30 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR ALZ261>266.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR FLZ201>206.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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