069
FXUS64 KMOB 151102
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
602 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH RAIN RETURNING
IN THE COMING WEEK.
- WELL BELOW NORMAL OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT. HIGHS AND
LOWS TREND WARMER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. BB-8
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS TO OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC
COAST PREVENTING THE RIDGE FROM SHIFTING EAST OVER THE GULF. THIS
UPPER TROUGH HELPS TO DEAMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SHIFTS SOUTH TO OFF THE
CAROLINA/GA/FL COAST, BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. BY SUNDAY EVENING, GOOD ONSHORE FLOW HAS
RETURNED TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA (PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES RISE ABOVE 1.8"). A DRIER AIRMASS
(PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES BELOW 1.4") OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEGUN TO MOVE OFF. RAINSHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY OVER AREAS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. IF THE HIGHER
MOISTURE VALUES SHIFT EAST, SO WILL THE PRECIPITATION, BUT AM
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN WEST OF THE MISS/AL STATE LINE
IF IT DOES.
TEMPERATURES SEE A SHIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
SOUTH OF I-10 TO THE COAST COOLING TO THE LOW 80S AS COOLER FLOW OFF
THE GULF BECOMES DOMINANT. INLAND FROM THERE, HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE
TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS BY SUNDAY, WITH MID TO UPPER
80S EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES SEE THE SAME RISE, TO MID 60S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG THE COAST EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY ON, AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH ALONG THE EAST COAST, THEN
DEAMPLIFIES A BIT MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PASS OVER/NEAR THE SOUTHEAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING
WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST SHIFTS NORTH A BIT AND WEAKENS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO SOUTHWESTERLY, WHICH IN COMBINATION
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING, ALLOWS THE BETTER MOISTURE LEVELS
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA TO SHIFT EAST TO OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST AREA MID WEEK IN RESPONSE. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN
CONTROL ENOUGH FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE TO AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS BY MID WEEK.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, GENERAL
NORTHERLY FLOW TRANSITIONING TO WEAK ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP ANY
SWELL ON AREA BEACHES LOW INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS EXPECTED. ONSHORE FLOW ON AREA BEACHES BECOMES MORE
ORGANIZED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK, WITH A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RETURNING TUESDAY.
/16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT FRI MAY 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BB-8
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT THU MAY 14 2026
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS SWITCH TO ONSHORE BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 82 60 82 63 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 80 64 81 68 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 80 64 80 69 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 84 53 87 58 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 85 59 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 82 56 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 86 54 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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