334
FXUS64 KMOB 220052
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
652 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
..NEW UPDATE
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 652 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
INCREASED THE WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE. OFFSHORE WINDS 15-20 KT EXPECTED
OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LIKELY OVER SOUTHERN
MOBILE BAY AS WELL. MARINE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND THE
GRADIENT RELAXES. 34/JFB
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 521 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024/
.NEW AVIATION
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. 34/JFB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024/
NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM...
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, WITH FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE,
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THE
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST TODAY, AS WEAK RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD AND INTO THE REGION. NEVERTHELESS, A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
HAS SETTLED INTO THE AREA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE, DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE, WITH TEMPS
TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL LESSEN
OVERNIGHT, WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING LOWS TO DROP INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S IN OUR INTERIOR AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG
THE COAST. GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS, APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 25 DEGREES AREAWIDE. THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALIZED SPOTS
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR THAT DROP TO JUST BELOW 25 DEGREES, BUT THE
DURATION AND CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
AT THIS POINT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE SURFACE HIGH PUSHES EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL BRING MORE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE
FLOW, AND MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLY COOL, WITH TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER ON SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT TEMPS WILL
STILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. /73
EXTENDED TERM...
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
AN EASTERN STATES WILL BE BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, LEAVING A SOMEWHAT ZONAL UPPER FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY THAT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY BY TUESDAY (CHRISTMAS EVE). DRY WEATHER AND
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AS WE MOVE INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
(CHRISTMAS DAY), MODELS ARE SOMEWHAT SIMILAR INDICATING A MORE
ACTIVE SOUTHERN-STREAM PATTERN, BRINGING A SHORTWAVE EAST ACROSS
OUR AREA IN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT. THE GFS IS A LITTLE FASTER WITH
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS, MOVING IT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE EURO (WHICH HAS A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH AXIS)
MOVING IT EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON CHRISTMAS DAY. EITHER WAY, IT
LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA WILL
COME DURING THE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME.
HIGHEST POPS WITH BOTH SOLUTIONS LOOK TO BE AROUND 40 TO 50
PERCENT AT THE MOST, BUT WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES. THE GFS
SHOWS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN COMING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE EURO BEING A LITTLE SLOWER
SHOWING BEST CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS DAY. EITHER WAY
RAINS LOOK TO COME TO AND END ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. BOTH
SOLUTIONS FOR NOW ALSO INDICATE A DISSIPATING TREND OF THE RAIN AS
IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA AND ENCOUNTERS TO COOLER AND MORE
STABLE LOW LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXTENDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST. SPEAKING OF THE STABLE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE THAT LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA, MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM, AND AT THIS TIME IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THE WIND FIELDS WILL
ALSO BE RATHER WEAK. THIS WILL SUPPORT A MAINLY SHOWERY WEATHER
PATTERN WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE VERY MINIMAL AT THIS TIME.
THE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE SOUTHERN-STREAM PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE
LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER
(POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT STRONGER) SYSTEM APPROACHING THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST BY LATE SATURDAY. LOOK FOR A GRADUAL MODERATION
OF TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S, IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S (AND NEAR
70) TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AND THEN MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SIMILAR TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES AS WELL. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 30S OVER INLAND AREAS TO THE MIDDLE 40S DOWN ALONG THE
COAST. ON TUESDAY NIGHT A TAD WARMER, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR ZONES TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S AT
THE COAST. LOWS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHTS MOSTLY IN THE 50S
ACROSS THE AREA, BUT SOME LOWER ALONG THE COAST (ESPECIALLY BY
FRIDAY NIGHT). DS/12
MARINE...
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT DEC 21 2024
A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY. A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. NO WIND/SEAS
HAZARDS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, BUT WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE INCREASING SLIGHTLY BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.
COULD ALSO SEE A RETURN TO MORE OF A SEA FOG PATTERN THAT COULD
BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT DUE TO RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES BY THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL. DS/12
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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