491
FXUS64 KMOB 181736
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1136 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1136 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREA BEACHES
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SOME STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON, AND OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS EVENING.
- DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MARINE AREA. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT EXISTS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE OPEN GULF WATERS INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
A CENTRAL STATES UPPER TROF TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT WHILE
ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN STATES TONIGHT THEN EJECTS OFF INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING TO
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH A RIDGE OF COOL AND DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST CAMS
SHOW THAT CONVECTION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON,
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROF. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT, THOUGH IS ANTICIPATED
TO BE WEAKENING AND DIMINISHING AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.
CONSIDERING THE TIMING OF THE CONVECTION IN THE CAMS, THERE IS
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY TO WARRANT CONCERN FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF STRONG STORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE THROUGH ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER
PERIOD OF CONCERN GENERALLY OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA FROM THE EARLY TO MID EVENING
HOURS, THOUGH THIS IS MITIGATED BY UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW MUCH
FORCING WILL BE AVAILABLE.
DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN UPPER TROF MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THEN
MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW WELL OFF TO THE NORTH BRINGS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
I-65 ON SUNDAY WHERE THE BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT, WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT. DRY
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOWS TONIGHT
RANGE FROM AROUND 40 WELL INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 40S NEAR THE
COAST, THEN HIGHS ON FRIDAY RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE COAST. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM
THE LOWER/MID 30S INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S AT THE COAST. SATURDAY
WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO
AROUND 70, WITH SOMEWHAT SIMILAR VALUES UNTIL TRENDING TO MOSTLY
THE LOWER 70S FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEND TO RANGE FROM THE 40S WELL INLAND TO
THE 50S NEAR THE COAST. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. A LOW RISK
IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THEN A MODERATE RISK IS
EXPECTED FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MOSTLY AFFECT PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA, THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND COASTAL
BALDWIN COUNTY UNTIL SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL MAINLY AFFECT INTERIOR
AREAS TONIGHT, WITH LESS COVERAGE CLOSER TO THE COAST, AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS BECOME
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH
THE NORTHERLY FLOW DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY. IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG WILL LIKELY AFFECT MOBILE BAY, THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND, AND THE NEAR SHORE ALABAMA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON TODAY UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. AN
ONSHORE FLOW SWITCHES TO A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
DIMINISHES ON FRIDAY THEN BECOMES SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY. A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILS ON SUNDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA GULF WATERS, THEN THE ALABAMA
COASTAL WATERS ARE INCLUDED BEGINNING AT 9 PM THIS EVENING. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ENDS AT NOON ON FRIDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 44 60 39 70 / 30 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 48 60 43 65 / 30 0 0 0
DESTIN 49 62 45 64 / 30 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 41 58 32 66 / 50 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 38 56 34 68 / 60 0 0 0
CAMDEN 39 54 33 65 / 70 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 45 60 33 65 / 30 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ630>632-
650.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR GMZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST FRIDAY
FOR GMZ650-670.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR GMZ655-675.
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