261
FXUS64 KMOB 011732
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1232 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT ALL AREA
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A RATHER WET PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A
STUBBORN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES WHICH EXTENDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST CAUSES A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROF OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO TO
MOSTLY SHEAR OUT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LEAVES A MODEST UPPER LOW
NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/MEXICO BORDER WITH A WEAK UPPER TROF EXTENDING
TO NEAR THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AN UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND AND ABSORBS THE
REMNANT WEAK UPPER TROF, LEADING TO THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKING DOWN
AND RETREATING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN WILL SLOWLY
BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE PLAINS/INTERIOR EASTERN STATES
TO EXTEND FROM COASTAL TEXAS INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY, A SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
MEANWHILE BECOMES BETTER DEVELOPED FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
DEVELOPS AN INVERTED SURFACE TROF UP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST,
INTERSECTING WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS COMBINED SURFACE
TROF/FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO BECOME ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF TO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE STEADILY INCREASES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 2.5 INCHES WHICH PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. AS NOTED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT, THESE VALUES ARE WAY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS PATTERN INDICATES A TREND TOWARDS VERY
HIGH RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING CONCERNS, POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
THIS WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES POSITIONED OVER THE
AREA ALONG WITH COPIOUS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. WPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK OF FLOODING FOR NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA ON FRIDAY, THEN A
SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING IS IN PLACE FOR ESSENTIALLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE. A
SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING CONTINUES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FOR SUNDAY.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH SUNDAY LOOK TO RANGE FROM 2-3 INCHES
INLAND TO 4-5 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI,
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ALABAMA, AND A PORTION OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL SEE ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
COMING FORECAST UPDATES, AND LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 6-9 INCHES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE COAST DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTION
SETS UP.
FOR MONDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE EASTERN STATES UPPER TROF MOVES OFF
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THEN ANOTHER UPPER TROF MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN STATES ON THURSDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE ORIENTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING THEN SLOWLY
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY, AND SLOWLY CONTINUES
FURTHER INTO THE GULF THROUGH THURSDAY. FOR MONDAY, HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY POPS ALONG/EAST OF I-65 WITH CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE, THEN
RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THURSDAY TO CHANCE POPS EAST
OF I-65 WITH MOSTLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN A MODERATE RISK
FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAINLY OVER NORTHERN MOBILE BAY DURING HIGH
TIDE LATE TONIGHT AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN TIDAL HEIGHTS OF
1.5-1.6 FEET ARE INDICATED, JUST SHY OF 1.7 FEET WHEN COASTAL
FLOODING BEGINS. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING TODAY. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE PREDAWN
HOURS OVER THE MARINE WATERS AND MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND DROPS OF CIGS/VIS TO MVFR
AND EVEN LOCALLY IFR WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH TOMORROW AROUND
10-15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING
OVER INTERIOR AREAS OVERNIGHT. SS/97
MARINE
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TODAY AND
PERSISTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS RELAX ON SUNDAY AND TURN
NORTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT
WEEK AS WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY. SEAS INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET LATE
THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BUMP TO 4-7 FEET
POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 86 72 83 / 30 80 50 80
PENSACOLA 76 85 75 83 / 50 70 70 90
DESTIN 75 84 75 84 / 40 70 70 90
EVERGREEN 67 88 68 84 / 10 70 50 80
WAYNESBORO 69 89 69 83 / 10 60 30 80
CAMDEN 68 90 69 84 / 10 60 40 80
CRESTVIEW 69 86 69 83 / 10 80 50 90
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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