978
FXUS64 KMOB 230528
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1228 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THROUGH MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS, THEN SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BEING DEFLECTED NORTHEAST BY
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE PATTERN
MAINTAINS A SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN TX TO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. A SOUPY AIRMASS IS MAINTAINED SOUTH OF
THE FRONT( PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES IN THE 1.8"-2.0" RANGE)
BY A MODEST CONSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY
MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE STREAM OF PASSING ENERGY WILL HELP
FIRE OFF DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY WELL NORTHWEST OF I-65,
WITH THE PASSING ENERGY BRINGING MODEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT DROPS.
ALSO, WATER ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR, WITH THE SOUPY
AIRMASS ALLOWING FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAINERS.
ANY FOCUSING BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING, AND THE RISK OF WATER ISSUES
GOES UP. BETTER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWEST OF I-65 WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE A DISCONTINUITY IN TEMPERATURES, WITH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
LOW 80S NORTHWEST OF I-65, NEAR SEASONAL NORMS MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTHEAST. THE SOUPY AIRMASS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH
UPPER SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS,
AROUND 70 WELL INLAND, LOW TO MID 70S ALONG AND CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
TUESDAY ON, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN HANGS TOUGH UNTIL A
SERIES OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS THE CARIBBEAN HIGH SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND ABOVE SEASONAL POPS
CONTINUE. EVEN SO, BEST RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN NORTHWEST OF I-65
THROUGH THE WEEK.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES. CONSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW VARIES IN STRENGTH, WITH ONSHORE SWELL VARYING IN
RESPONSE. THE TIDAL CYCLE SLOWLY DECREASES INTO THE COMING WEEK,
BUT THE RIP RISK REMAINS MODERATE TO AT TIMES HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE DROPS TO MVFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT, WITH POCKETS OF RAIN GRADUALLY MOVING OFF. MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY, WITH LOCAL DROPS
IN CONDITIONS TO LOW END MVFR LEVELS AND GUSTY VARIABLE WINDS
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST FAVORS LIGHT, TO AT TIMES MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHEST SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FEET. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 84 71 82 / 20 90 80 90
PENSACOLA 73 84 74 83 / 20 60 50 80
DESTIN 73 84 73 84 / 20 40 40 70
EVERGREEN 69 86 69 84 / 20 80 40 90
WAYNESBORO 68 83 68 80 / 50 90 80 100
CAMDEN 68 83 68 81 / 40 90 70 100
CRESTVIEW 70 88 70 86 / 10 60 30 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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