576
FXUS64 KMOB 161128
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
628 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY INTO THURSDAY.
ELEVATED SURF HEIGHTS TO AROUND 4 FEET ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE OPEN GULF THROUGH
THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MM/25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2026
A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
ARKLATEX REGION THURSDAY EVENING. THIS UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT DIMINISH IN SIZE
AS AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST MOVES
WESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY, AND THEN INTO THE
EASTERN GULF BY THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO COME TO
A CRAWL SOMEWHERE OVER THE GULF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT NOT EXACTLY SURE AT THIS TIME WHERE THIS MAY OCCUR DUE TO
MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LOW NEARLY STALLING OVER
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN
BARELY GET OUT OF THE STARTING BLOCKS AND HAVE IT STALLING NEAR
THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN LARGELY INTACT, BUT WE ARE EXPECTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN THE
MEANTIME, WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT AN EASTERLY FLOW KEEPING THE
DRIER AIR FLOWING INTO OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAINING LOW.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS TODAY ACROSS COASTAL ALABAMA INTO
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A DAILY OCCURRENCE OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING OVER THE
WEEKEND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST. /22
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TODAY, GOING FROM
AROUND 5 KNOTS AT DAYBREAK TO CLOSER TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS NEAR THE COAST WILL BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE
TODAY, GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. WINDS RELAX TO BELOW 5
KNOTS INLAND AND NEAR 10 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST AFTER SUNSET. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THIS MORNING
INTO THURSDAY. WINDS RELAX TO LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE
EASTERLIES TO END THE WEEK. SEAS INCREASE TO 3 TO 6 FEET TODAY,
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH LATE WEEK. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MARINE WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 91 71 90 68 / 10 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 91 74 90 73 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 91 74 90 74 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 92 67 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 94 69 93 66 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 93 68 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 91 69 89 67 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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