105
FXUS64 KMOB 261149
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
649 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 644 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEARING OR BREAKING
DAILY RECORD HIGHS. HEAT ADVISORIES OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS
WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, BUT IT WILL
STILL REMAIN HOT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK
THIS MORNING. 07/MB
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
AN UPPER TROF ORIENTED NEAR/ALONG THE EAST COAST REMAINS
ESSENTIALLY IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL STATES. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF INTO THE ARKLATEX REGION WILL PROMOTE A PRIMARILY
WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN
A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO SOME DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR ON
TUESDAY THOUGH HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW AS COVERAGE LOOKS
LIMITED. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S THEN HIGHS
ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. TUESDAY WILL BE EVEN
HOTTER, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ON SUNDAY RANGE FROM 100-105 OVER INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA, WITH VALUES OF
105-109 OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TO ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
PER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT OFFICES, WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUANCE
OF A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS LATTER PORTION AND DEFER TO THE NEXT
SHIFT. WITH THE PROGRESSIVELY HOTTER TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH/WARNING WILL LIKELY BECOME
NECESSARY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY, THE
EASTERN STATES UPPER TROF AMPLIFIES AND RETROGRADES TO ENCOMPASS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, AND A SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. RAIN CHANCES TREND HIGHER FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD, AND WHILE WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM 95-100, TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATE WITH HIGHS ON
SATURDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 90S.
AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS, RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM SUNDAY ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HERE IS A TABLE OF THE
CURRENT RECORDS AND OUR FORECAST VALUES:
SUNDAY, JULY 26
MOBILE RECORD HIGH: 98 (1983, 1912) / FORECAST: 96
PENSACOLA RECORD HIGH: 98 (1990) / FORECAST: 96
MONDAY, JULY 27
MOBILE RECORD HIGH: 99 (1968, 1875) / FORECAST: 98
PENSACOLA RECORD HIGH: 98 (1970) / FORECAST: 98
TUESDAY, JULY 28
MOBILE RECORD HIGH: 100 (1968) / FORECAST: 100
PENSACOLA RECORD HIGH: 98 (1993) / FORECAST: 99
WEDNESDAY, JULY 29
MOBILE RECORD HIGH: 100 (1877) / FORECAST: 99
PENSACOLA RECORD HIGH: 100 (1986) / FORECAST: 98
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY FOR THE
ALABAMA BEACHES, WHILE A MODERATE RISK IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES. A MODERATE RISK THEN FOLLOWS
FOR ALL BEACHES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FOR
TUESDAY, A LOW RISK IS ANTICIPATED FOR ALABAMA BEACHES WITH A
MODERATE RISK FOR THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES. FOR
WEDNESDAY, A MODERATE RISK IS ANTICIPATED FOR ALL BEACH AREAS. /29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS TURN
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS NEAR ANY STORMS. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
A DIURNAL WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING NEAR THE COASTLINE. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 96 77 98 77 / 20 10 20 10
PENSACOLA 96 79 98 80 / 20 10 20 10
DESTIN 94 81 95 81 / 20 10 20 10
EVERGREEN 94 75 96 73 / 20 10 10 10
WAYNESBORO 96 76 99 75 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN 91 75 95 74 / 20 10 20 10
CRESTVIEW 97 76 99 75 / 20 10 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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