921
FXUS64 KMOB 051953
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
253 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
- HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 RANGE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY AND MONDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE REMNANT ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH OKLAHOMA
YESTERDAY ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE WILL MAKE ITS WAY EAST TODAY GIVING
SOME EXTRA LIFT OVER THE AREA. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE AREA INTO
A MARGINAL RISK TODAY. THERE ARE VERY HIGH PWATS OF 2.0-2.1" WHICH
IS AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE BASED ON SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THIS
MOISTURE ALONG WITH DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS QUITE SATURATED AND
RELATIVELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH A FREEZING LEVEL OF
15,000+ FEET SUPPORTS EFFICIENT WARM RAIN PROCESSES WITH RAINFALL
RATES UP TO 2-3 INCHES/HOUR. WPC HAS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY. EXPECT STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH PONDING IN ROADWAYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS.
MOISTURE REMAINS QUITE HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
DOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND PWATS OF 1.8-2.0". THE
TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE WHILE ENCOUNTERING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
OUR EAST. WE ARE STILL INFLUENCED BY THIS INCREASED BUOYANCY
TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS STORMS. THE RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK IN MID WEEK AND
DECREASES RAIN CHANCES TO A MORE NORMAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
HEAT INDEX VALUES CONTINUE TO BE JUST BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY
THRESHOLD OF 108-112, WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OF 100-107 FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. THE BUILDING RIDGE BY MID TO END WEEK WILL INCREASE
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED THRESHOLD
AND WILL BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. THERE CONTINUES BE LITTLE
OVERNIGHT RELIEF WITH LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK ONLY
REACHING THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND AND THE UPPER 70S TO 80 ALONG THE
COAST. ANYBODY OUTDOORS SHOULD DRINK PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE BREAKS
IN A/C WHEN POSSIBLE. SS/97
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED ALONG AND WEST OF
I-65. THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING MONDAY MORNING. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
WESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY AT 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN DIMINISH
TO A LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW BY EARLY THIS EVENING. A WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW AT 5-10 KNOTS DEVELOPS MONDAY MORNING. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE WEEK. SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 91 75 92 / 30 50 50 60
PENSACOLA 78 92 79 93 / 50 50 60 60
DESTIN 79 90 80 91 / 60 60 60 60
EVERGREEN 72 90 73 91 / 30 50 40 50
WAYNESBORO 73 90 73 91 / 30 50 40 40
CAMDEN 73 88 73 89 / 30 50 40 30
CRESTVIEW 74 92 74 92 / 30 50 40 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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