470
FXUS64 KMOB 161946 AAA
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
246 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
- STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO POSE AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR
ADDITIONAL NUMEROUS DOWNED TREES AND POWER OUTAGES OVER
PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
- STRONG WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON
SATURDAY, CREATING AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES.
- DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. IN ADDITION, A HIGH
RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS RETURN TO AREA BEACHES FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
HAVE MADE A FEW UPDATES TO THE FORECAST. FIRST, WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE LEVELS MOVING INLAND A BIT FURTHER, CONVECTION HAS FORMED
FURTHER INLAND OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES, SO HAVE BUMPED POPS UP
THERE. ALSO, DUE TO A FEW YELLOW RIP CURRENT REPORTS, HAVE BUMPED
THE RIP RISK UP TO MODERATE FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE, FOR TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT,
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AT THIS TIME, MOVING ACROSS AND SOUTH OF LAND PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND MARINE WATERS THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS IN RESPONSE. A DRIER AIRMASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
AT THIS TIME (PRECIPITABLE H20 LEVELS 1.5" ALONG THE COAST TO 1.1"
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA). THIS WILL HELP TO
LIMIT ANY RAINFALL TO NEAR COASTAL AND OPEN GULF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY OVER LAND AREAS,
EASTERLY OVER OPEN GULF WATERS, AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH A STRONGER SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE MOVING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND BUILDING.
LOOKING AT IMPACTS FOR LAND AREAS, THE FIRST IS A WIND ADVISORY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND
15KT/17MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25-30KTS/29-35MPH WITH HIGH VALUES
POSSIBLE ARE POSSIBLE. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS, AND SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AN
INCREASE IN THE RISK OF WILDFIRES IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY (MORE BELOW).
FOR MARINE IMPACTS, READ BELOW.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN FOR A NOSE-DIVE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MUCH ABOVE SEASONAL MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON
DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SOME
REBOUNDING OCCURS MONDAY, AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD AND
NORTHERLY WINDS EASE. LOW TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT'S PASSAGE
DROP INTO THE MID 40S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 40 TO MID/UPPER 50S SOUTH OF
I-10 TO THE COAST, REMAINING SO INTO THE COMING WEEK.
FOR TUESDAY ON, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER CONTINUES
TO BUILD. A NOR'EASTER DEVELOPING ON THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE EASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND ITS EFFECTS, AND EVENS SHIFTS THE
RIDGE WEST OVER THE PLAINS AS IT MOVES ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO BACK ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA STATE
LINE, CLOSER TO THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWER TO
RISE, WITH GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING WEAK, BUT A BIT
COOLER, NORTHEASTERLY FLOW, AND A DRY AIRMASS HELPING WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, A LOW RISK IS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE WEEKEND, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RETURNS SUNDAY ON.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS MAY CAUSE BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AN VISIBILITIES
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT TO OPERATIONS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE NORTH
(AROUND 00Z-02Z FOR THE TAF SITES) TO AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KNOTS. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY ALSO BECOME A CONCERN BY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH 0-2000 FT SHEAR POTENTIALLY REACHING 25-30
KNOTS, BUT JUST BELOW THRESHOLD AT THIS TIME. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. JGC/98
MARINE
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
A LIGHT, DIURNALLY VARIABLE, FLOW TODAY QUICKLY BECOMES A
STRONG TO VERY STRONG NORTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE
COMING WEEK WILL SHIFT WINDS TO EASTERLY, WHILST REMAINING STRONG,
ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN GULF WATERS. WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OVER GALE
FORCE, ALONG WITH SOME AREA SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSE TO GALES, A
GALE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, TAPERING TO JUST OFFSHORE WATERS INTO SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGER WINDS SHIFT SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT AFTER THE
GALES GOES DOWN, LASTING INTO THE COMING WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN
GULF WATERS.
/16
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS, DRY FUELS, AND SEVERE DROUGHT OVER AREAS WELL
INLAND FROM THE COAST WILL CREATE AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY. ALSO, ANY
AREAS WITH DEBRIS STILL ON THE GROUND OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA, WILL BE AT ADDED RISK. A FIRE
WEATHER WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES.
REGARDLESS, ALL AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
WILDFIRES THIS WEEKEND.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 53 70 50 71 / 10 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 55 72 54 71 / 20 0 0 0
DESTIN 58 72 55 70 / 20 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 50 69 47 70 / 10 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 49 69 45 70 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN 49 67 46 68 / 10 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 54 70 50 68 / 20 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
ALZ054>060-261>266.
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
FLZ201>206.
MS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
MSZ078-079.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR MSZ067-075-
076-078-079.
GM...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
GMZ630>636.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ650-655.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR
GMZ670-675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
GMZ670-675.
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