190
FXUS64 KMOB 172208
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
408 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/
CURRENTLY, A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO IS BRINGING MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IS BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS TO THE AREA,
WITH AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I65 SEEING LITTLE IF ANY DROPS REACHING THE
GROUND DUE TO A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER TO MOISTEN UP.
TONIGHT, THE AREA OF UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE PLAINS SURFACE
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED TO HIT THE GROUND AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THIS PORTION OF THE AREA MOISTENS. HAVE SHIFTED
THE BAND OF ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS EAST IN RESPONSE, BUT
KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN LOW DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE UPGLIDE.
LATER TONIGHT, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOME LOCALITIES MAY
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1 MILES, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND COOLING
INHIBITING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT, AM EXPECTING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT
IN THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.
FRIDAY, THE AREA WILL SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS THE AREA OF
UPGLIDE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE AROUND AT THE
START OF THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, BUT SHOULD BE
GONE BY LATE MORNING. WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED TO HEAT THE AREA, HIGHS
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ARE EXPECTED, RANGING FROM THE MID 60S
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO THE COAST.
16/SAM
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WILL BE A FAST MOVING FRONT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE EXCESSIVE DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM,
GENERALLY ONE HALF TO ONE INCH BUT A FEW ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO
AROUND 2 INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL HAS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY, AND
WE STILL MAINTAIN THIS LINE OF THINKING AS WELL. BUT, MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD WITH REGARD TO AVAILABLE INSTABILITY ACROSS
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, AND WE WILL HAVE
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR POTENTIAL. GFS NOW INDICATING
POSSIBLE MUCAPES OF 500-700 J/KG OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES
SATURDAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE A COINCIDING 850 MB JET OF 50-60 KNOTS RESULTING IN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR QLCS STRUCTURES ALONG THE SQUALL
LINE THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING TO
EARLY EVENING SATURDAY, ASSUMING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. THUS,
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT, WITH PERHAPS A
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO ESPECIALLY IF POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP.
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OF TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY
LATE SATURDAY EVENING, WITH RAINS ENDING AND COLD, DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM
THE MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR TO AROUND 30 NEAR THE COAST.
OTHERWISE MAX, MIN TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE COAST BY SATURDAY WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT. 12/DS
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST
MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT GOOD
CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH TIMING
OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. 12/DS
MARINE
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY OVER
AREA WATERS WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING WINDS, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY TO BE ISSUED
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND
BUILDING SEAS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA, WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING
AREA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE MIXED IN WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY, THEN OFFSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SETTLE AND SHIFT
BACK TO ONSHORE AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES NORTH OF AREA WATERS.
OPEN GULF WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS REMAINING AT MODERATE
LEVELS, WITH AREA BAYS SEEING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK, BRINGING A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 16/SAM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 52 69 58 68 37 48 30 54 / 30 10 20 80 30 10 0 0
PENSACOLA 55 68 60 69 40 49 31 53 / 30 20 20 80 50 10 0 0
DESTIN 56 67 61 68 43 51 35 53 / 30 20 20 80 50 10 0 0
EVERGREEN 49 67 56 70 38 46 28 54 / 30 10 20 80 50 10 0 0
WAYNESBORO 48 66 55 67 34 45 26 51 / 30 10 50 80 20 10 0 0
CAMDEN 48 64 54 69 35 44 26 51 / 30 10 40 80 50 10 0 0
CRESTVIEW 49 69 57 70 39 47 28 53 / 30 20 20 80 50 10 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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