115
FXUS64 KMOB 141157
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
557 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 552 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA
THIS MORNING. DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS COULD DROP TO 10 DEGREES
OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES AND TO 15 DEGREES OVER COASTAL
COUNTIES.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. FREQUENT
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN GULF WATERS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD IS HELPING TO PUSH A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. PRIOR TO ITS
PASSAGE, DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA, INCLUDING OVER MOBILE BAY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 5AM FOR LAND AREAS AND 6AM FOR MARINE AREAS. ADDITIONALLY,
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO OUR
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES. RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS. THE
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND SUNRISE, EFFECTIVELY
DISSIPATING OUR FOG AND ENDING OUR RAIN CHANCES. BEHIND THE FRONT,
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH (WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-35
MPH IN SPOTS) AS AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN TO OUR
NORTH, CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA.
THIS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
THROUGHOUT THE DAY (OUR HIGH WILL LIKELY OCCUR PRIOR TO SUNRISE).
WE ARE STILL ANTICIPATING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON FOR TONIGHT.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN INTO THE UPPER TEENS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
84 TO THE MID 20S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. IN FACT, WE MAY
ACTUALLY GET TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF OUR DAILY RECORD LOW FOR
KMOB (DECEMBER 15TH RECORD LOW: 20 DEGREES (1901) FORECAST LOW: 22
DEGREES). FACTORING IN THE CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS, APPARENT
TEMPERATURES (WIND CHILLS) COULD DROP TO AS LOW AS 10-16 DEGREES
NORTH OF I-10, WITH UPPER TEENS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WITH TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS THIS LOW, WE HAVE ISSUED A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT A FEW LOCATIONS MAY FLIRT WITH EXTREME COLD WARNING
CRITERIA. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE URGED TO MAKE PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT PEOPLE, PLANTS, PETS, AND PIPES FROM THIS UPCOMING COLD
WEATHER.
VERY COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EVEN UNDER
SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL LIKELY ONLY REMAIN IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20S AREAWIDE. BY TUESDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES MORE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFF TO OUR EAST, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY
MODERATE. IN FACT, HIGHS BY THURSDAY MAY WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 70S
FOR SOME SPOTS. RAIN CHANCES MAY ALSO RETURN TO THE AREA BY LATE
WEEK AS THE NEXT, WEAKER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. A LOW RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, INCREASING TO A
MODERATE RISK BY THURSDAY. /96
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING,
WHICH IS ERODING THE DENSE FOG. WINDS ARE QUICKLY TURNING
NORTHERLY AT THE TERMINALS AS A POTENT COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
THE AREA. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-30 KNOTS BY LATE
MORNING AND PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AREA-WIDE. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT, ALONG WITH DENSE SEA FOG OVER MOBILE BAY AND THE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE MARINE
ZONES LATER TODAY, WITH STRONG NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH STRONG SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. WINDS SUBSIDE ON MONDAY, BECOMING A LIGHT
EASTERLY WIND FOR TUESDAY. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 60 22 49 29 / 40 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 62 28 50 34 / 30 0 0 0
DESTIN 64 31 51 37 / 20 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 57 21 51 24 / 40 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 49 19 46 24 / 20 0 0 0
CAMDEN 49 20 46 23 / 20 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 61 23 51 23 / 20 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
FL...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ670-
675.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR GMZ670-675.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR GMZ670-675.
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