428
FXUS64 KMOB 101123
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
623 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM 100-107 DEGREES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. MM/25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE UPPER OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BREAKDOWN THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE EXITS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND PASSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BEFORE STALLING
AND DISSIPATING. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH FORMING WEST OF OUR AREA
WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED GOING INTO FRIDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL AID TO INCREASE PWATS BACK TO AROUND 2.1-2.3", RESULTING IN A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES THIS MORNING WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE NORTHWARD,
FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER A BRIEF DROP OFF IN CONVECTION THIS EVENING,
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO ONCE AGAIN SPOUT UP ACROSS OUR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES AFTER MIDNIGHT. NUMEROUS WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, MAXIMIZING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING BOTH DAYS WHERE STORMS
POSSIBLY TRAIN OR SIT OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR PROLONGED PERIODS,
WITH THE GREATEST RISK SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. IN ADDITION, A FEW
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 88-93 DEGREES TODAY WILL LOWER
SEVERAL DEGREES THE REST OF THE WEEK AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE. WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE REBUILDING ACROSS
OUR REGION, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK TO 90-95 DEGREES
WITH HEAT INDICES POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM 100-107 DEGREES. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S THROUGH THE
FORECAST. /22
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
MAY TEMPORARILY REDUCE CEILING AND VISIBILITY BY SEVERAL FLIGHT
CATEGORIES AT TIMES. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST THIS
MORNING BELOW 5 KNOTS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. SEAS SUBSIDE TO AROUND 1 FOOT TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH MORNING.
MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 88 74 88 73 / 70 60 70 50
PENSACOLA 88 77 88 77 / 60 60 70 50
DESTIN 88 78 87 78 / 50 40 60 50
EVERGREEN 92 71 89 71 / 60 20 80 30
WAYNESBORO 93 72 90 72 / 50 20 80 30
CAMDEN 92 72 89 72 / 40 20 80 40
CRESTVIEW 90 72 89 73 / 60 40 60 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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