663  
FXUS64 KMOB 161140  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
540 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(12Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025  
 
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD OVER THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF  
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA THIS MORNING, WITH  
VFR CLOSER TO THE COAST. VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS  
WILL THEN OCCUR FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING  
HOURS. /22  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 439 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025/  
   
.NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM...  
(NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 439 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025  
 
ONGOING QLCS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE CONTINUES  
TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. THIS LINE OF  
CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE AREA AROUND DAYBREAK, FOLLOWED BY A MUCH  
DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT  
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS  
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE LOWERED BELOW 25 MPH, AND NON-CONVECTIVE WIND  
GUSTS HAVE LOWERED BELOW 40 MPH. SURF HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FEET  
ALONG THE COASTAL ZONES OF ALABAMA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE  
CONTINUES, AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6PM  
THIS EVENING. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT  
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  
 
LOOK FOR FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT TODAY  
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 50S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN  
ZONES TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-65  
CORRIDOR. COLD TONIGHT, WITH NEARLY EVERYONE SEEING LOWS IN THE  
30S, WITH A LIGHT FREEZE ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY. /22  
 
SHORT AND LONG TERM...  
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 439 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025  
 
THE UPPER PATTERN CHANGES INTO MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE  
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN  
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WEDNESDAY. TIMING AND STRENGTH OF  
THIS ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE INCONSISTENT IN THE GUIDANCE. ALL THE  
MODELS HAVE A SURFACE LOW ORGANIZING OVER THE WESTERN GULF TUESDAY  
NIGHT, THEN MOVING EAST- NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT  
IN THIS SURFACE LOW REMAINING SOUTH OF THE COAST AS IT QUICKLY  
PASSES SOUTH OF MOBILE BAY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND COLD  
NORTHERLY FLOW IS PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE POST  
FRONTAL COLD PUSH VARIES WITH THE VARYING UPPER DYNAMICS, WITH THE  
ECMWF ON THE STRONGER END IN MOVING A COLDER DRYER AIRMASS OVER  
THE FORECAST AREA BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE  
WEEK. THE GDPS AND GFS ARE THE SLOWEST, WITH A WARMER POST SYSTEM  
SOLUTION. THE GFS IS A BIT WEAKER THEN THE GDPS, BUT NOT BY MUCH.  
A QUICK SHOT OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RAIN SHOWERS COME TO THE  
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THIS  
PASSING ENERGY. WITH THE SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF THE COAST,  
ANY INSTABILITY, SURFACE BASED OR ELEVATED WILL BE OVER OR SOUTH  
OF THE COAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR WATER ISSUES, ESPECIALLY  
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE QUICKER  
SOLUTIONS MOVE THE DYNAMICS QUICKLY OUT, LIMITING TOTAL RAINFALL.  
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS (GFS AND GDPS) HAVE THE RAINFALL LASTING  
LONGER, WITH WATER ISSUES POSSIBLE. AS THIS MID WEEK SYSTEM MOVES  
OFF, THE POST SYSTEM PUSH OF COLD DRY AIR WILL DROP TEMPERATURES  
TO BELOW SEASONAL NORMS. THE NBM HAS BEEN AT THE COLD END OF THE  
SPECTRUM, EVEN BELOW MOST GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY. HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A BIT TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS.  
AS WE GET INTO THE END OF THE WEEK, GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING MORE  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA, BRINGING ANOTHER  
ROUND OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE RAINSHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR  
NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
AS COLD AIR MOVES SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY, HIGH  
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S OVER THE NORTHWESTERN  
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE LOW TO MID 60S OVER THE  
FLORIDA PANHANDLE ARE EXPECTED. MID 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED FOR  
THURSDAY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR SATURDAY. LOW  
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 TO  
AROUND 40 SOUTH OF I- 10 MONDAY NIGHT RISE INTO THE 40S OVER MOST  
OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE MID WEEK SYSTEM,  
LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 TO  
NEAR 30 SOUTH OF I-10 THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT SEES AN UPTICK  
IN LOW TEMPERATURES, WITH UPPER 20S NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 TO UPPER  
30S SOUTH OF I-10. AM NOT EXPECTING THE RAIN TO MOVE IN UNTIL  
AFTER TEMPERATURES RISE TO ABOVE FREEZING AND GENERALLY REMAIN  
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE MID  
WEEK SYSTEM PASSES. /16  
 
MARINE...  
ISSUED AT 439 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025  
 
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT AS STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OCCUR  
INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL  
DIMINISH ON MONDAY, AND MOMENTARILY SHIFT EASTERLY BY TUESDAY  
BEFORE A MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW RETURNS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF  
THE FORECAST. /22  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 65 33 59 39 63 49 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 10 90 70 0  
PENSACOLA 68 37 58 43 63 52 62 35 / 20 0 0 0 10 90 80 10  
DESTIN 70 39 59 44 63 53 64 38 / 50 0 0 0 0 80 90 10  
EVERGREEN 65 30 57 33 63 43 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 0 90 80 10  
WAYNESBORO 59 30 56 34 60 42 53 24 / 0 0 0 0 10 90 50 0  
CAMDEN 60 29 53 31 59 41 53 25 / 0 0 0 0 0 90 70 0  
CRESTVIEW 69 33 59 34 64 46 62 33 / 30 0 0 0 0 90 90 10  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.  
 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.  
 
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.  
 
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-  
206.  
 
MS...NONE.  
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR GMZ630>636-650-  
655-670-675.  
 

 
 

 
 
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