810
FXUS64 KMOB 122341
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
641 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
- RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WITH MANY AREAS STILL WITHOUT POWER AND
RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS ONGOING, THESE
TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING AND NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.
JGC/98
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTER WHICH A
STRONG UPPER TROF SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES ON FRIDAY. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE ORIENTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK, THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND USHERS IN COOLER AIR. RECORD OR
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. HERE ARE THE FORECAST HIGHS
AND CURRENT RECORDS FOR TODAY, TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR MOBILE
AND PENSACOLA:
FOR TODAY:
MOBILE 91, RECORD 89
PENSACOLA 90, RECORD 92
FOR TUESDAY:
MOBILE 90, RECORD 92
PENSACOLA 89, RECORD 90
FOR WEDNESDAY:
MOBILE 90, RECORD 90
PENSACOLA 89, RECORD 89
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS TOO LIMITED TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION. COOLER AIR FLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S, EXCEPT FOR SOME HIGHER VALUES
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY OVER A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
LOWS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT TYPICALLY RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 WELL INLAND TO THE MID 60S AT THE COAST, THE LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER AND RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
WELL INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S AT THE COAST. AS THE COOLER AIR FLOWS
INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, BY SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS
LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S WELL INLAND TO AROUND 60 AT THE
COAST, THEN LOWS MODERATE A BIT FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. /29
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE OF FOG ELSEWHERE, WITH THE MOST
LIKELY TAF SITES TO EXPERIENCE SOME FOG BEING MOB AND JKA (ABOUT
30% CHANCE). NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. ANY FOG SHOULD CLEAR BY 1300Z TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. JGC/98
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1108 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
A DIURNAL FLOW CYCLE WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN BECOMING
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION, WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE POSSIBLE. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 63 90 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 65 89 65 89 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 67 87 67 86 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 59 93 59 91 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 60 92 60 93 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 59 91 59 92 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 60 92 61 91 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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