992
FXUS64 KMOB 030545
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1245 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1245 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
- DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED FLOODING FROM INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. A MAINLY MORNING WATERSPOUT
RISK WILL ALSO CONTINUE EACH DAY ACROSS MARINE AREAS.
- HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 103 TO 107 ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND A FEW AREAS MAY SEE VALUES OF 108 TO 110.
HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
A GRADUALLY LESSENING OF THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO A MORE ELONGATED RIDGE FROM THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE ATLANTIC WILL OCCUR THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL THEN RETROGRADE
WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
MID-LOWER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL ALSO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN WHILE A MID-LOWER EASTERLY WAVE MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AN ENHANCED DEEP EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
ALLOW DEEP MOISTURE TO ENTER INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS INCREASING
UP TO AROUND 2.4" BY NOON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A
CENTRAL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE AREA AS LOW AS 925MB EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE WAVE THAT SHOULD REACH SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A POSSIBLY WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA FORMING
SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TONIGHT. FOR TODAY, WE ARE
ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84, FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN POPS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK, WITH NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS OR EVEN PERHAPS
ISOLATED AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS RESULTING IN MAINLY NUISANCE
TYPE FLOODING, ALONG WITH WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY
DURING THE MORNING HOURS EACH DAY OVER THE MARINE AREA.
WE REMAIN IN THIS WETTER PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AS THE
BASE OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ALONG WITH A POSSIBLY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
ENTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY AND THEN MEANDERS
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING. THEREFORE, WE ARE STILL
EXPECTING DAILY OCCURRENCES OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DAYTIME
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS OVER LAND
ZONES AND THE MORNING HOURS COASTAL/MARINE AREAS THROUGH MONDAY,
AND POTENTIALLY INTO MIDWEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S TODAY, AND RANGE FROM 88
TO 93 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S ON SUNDAY. DAYTIME HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
100-105 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, TRENDING
TO 105 TO 110 DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. /22
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECTING TO SEE AN INCREASE IN SCT TSRA/SHRA PRIMARILY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM 17-19Z THROUGH 00Z, WITH GREATER
COVERAGE POTENTIAL FOR KMOB/KBFM. ONLY MAIN IMPACTS IN ANY SCT
TSRA/SHRA WILL BE PERIODIC LOWER VIS/CIGS BRIEFLY LOWERING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES FROM HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ON THE ORDER OF
25-35KTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT PREVAILING FORM THE
EAST DURING THE DAY. /008
MARINE
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
OFFSHORE WINDS EXPECTED AT NIGHT AND ONSHORE WINDS DURING THE DAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE COMING DAYS, ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY. A FEW WATERSPOUTS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 93 74 89 73 / 30 30 90 30
PENSACOLA 91 77 88 77 / 10 40 70 30
DESTIN 91 77 88 78 / 30 30 70 30
EVERGREEN 96 73 93 71 / 10 10 60 30
WAYNESBORO 97 74 94 73 / 30 10 70 30
CAMDEN 96 75 93 73 / 0 10 60 20
CRESTVIEW 94 73 90 72 / 10 20 70 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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