854
FXUS64 KMOB 191750
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1150 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY
NEARER THE COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY MARINE FOG THAT
DEVELOPS.
- THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT. A
COUPLE SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD BE STRONG, MAINLY SATURDAY.
- STRONG WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
AN UPPER TROF GRADUALLY ADVANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES
LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW BRINGS A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND USHERS MUCH COOLER AIR INTO
THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING FOG POTENTIAL
ALONG WITH MILD TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE
POPS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHICH TRANSITION TO LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES INTO THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR SUNDAY. MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY, BUT SHEAR VALUES WILL BE LOW AND EXPECT JUST EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SHEAR VALUES MAY IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SIMILAR MLCAPE VALUES EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. THIS COULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS, AND SPC HAS INCLUDED
MUCH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN CHANCE POPS
RETURN FOR THURSDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AND A WEAK FRONT POTENTIALLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. MILD
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. MUCH COOLER AIR
FLOWS INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY,
WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS ON
MONDAY REMAINING IN THE 50S. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S,
AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S.
TEMPERATURES THEN RECOVER TO LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S BY THURSDAY. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH A
LOW RISK FOLLOWING FOR MONDAY. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
IFR CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT TO MVFR TO VFR AT ISSUANCE
TIME. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER AGAIN TO IFR THIS EVENING
AND POTENTIALLY LIFR BY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL DISSIPATE A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY AND
CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY START TO LIFT BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH WINDS OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES MAY BRIEFLY TURN NORTHERLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS A FRONT ENTERS THE AREA. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
AROUND 20-25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH POTENTIAL NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH A
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
PERSISTING UNTIL BEGINNING TO DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 65 80 65 80 / 30 40 40 60
PENSACOLA 67 78 66 77 / 30 50 50 60
DESTIN 63 73 64 74 / 40 50 60 70
EVERGREEN 65 79 64 80 / 40 50 50 70
WAYNESBORO 63 76 64 78 / 50 40 50 70
CAMDEN 63 76 63 76 / 50 50 60 80
CRESTVIEW 65 81 64 81 / 40 50 50 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ630>632.
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