776
FXUS64 KMOB 032331
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
631 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 631 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR ALL AREA BEACHES.
- DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES
THROUGH TUESDAY.
- HEAT INDICES WILL INCREASE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, REACHING
BETWEEN 100-107 DEGREES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ORGANIZES INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION
THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN OPENS AND MOVES OFF AS UPPER HIGHS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OFF THE EAST COAST BUILD EAST/WEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST. A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE LOW OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEAST OPENS AND MOVES OFF WITH THE
UPPER DYNAMICS. A SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH AND BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE, RESTORING ONSHORE FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A DRIER AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES
AROUND 1.5", WITH THE DRIER AIR BEING ABOVE 700MB) THAT HAS MOVED
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEAST (AND THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA) BEGINS TO MOISTEN, RISING TO 1.7"-2.0" BY THE
END OF THE DAY THURSDAY. OVERALL, A DRY BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST
TODAY AND TUESDAY, WITH AN UPTICK WEDNESDAY, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF
I-65 WEDNESDAY AS A BAND OF INCREASED MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A DRY BAND FOLLOWS FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED
BEGINNING THURSDAY, WITH MOISTURE LEVELS RISING THURSDAY ON.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, SEABREEZE INITIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY. THE DRIER AIR ABOVE SURFACE MAY
ENHANCE ANY STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR STRONGER STORMS EACH DAY
(MLCAPES OF 1500-2000J/KG), THOUGH ANY ORGANIZING SHEAR IS
LIMITED. SOUNDINGS SHOW DCAPES RISING ABOVE 1000J/KG EACH
AFTERNOON, ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DOWNBURSTS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS,
WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA (CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER RIDGE) RISING ABOVE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED EACH DAY, AROUND
90 ALONG THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE AROUND 70 TO LOW 70S
TONIGHT (MID 70S ALONG THE COAST) RISE TO THE LOW TO LOW TO MID
70S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT (UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST). HEAT INDICES
IN THE 95-101 DEGREE RANGE TUESDAY RISE INTO THE 98 TO 103 DEGREE
RANGE BY THURSDAY.
THURSDAY NIGHT ON, THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST BECOMES
DOMINANT AND EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED.
MOISTURE LEVELS RISE BACK OVER 2". RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE, THOUGH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP
TO TEMPER THE POPS, TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
DAYTIME HEAT INDICES RISING TO JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, THE
MODERATE RISK TODAY DROPS TO A LOW THROUGH THE WEEK. BY THE END OF
THE WEEK, A MORE ORGANIZED ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THE RIP
RISK TO AN UPPER LOW TO MODERATE IN THE COMING WEEKEND, WITH OUR
FLORIDA BEACHES SEEING THE BETTER CHANCE OF A MODERATE RISK. /16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHING WEST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF SHIFTS
NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK, SHIFTING A GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW TO
SOUTHWESTERLY, THEN SOUTHERLY THROUGH MID WEEK. WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT, OCCASIONALLY MODERATE. /16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 93 73 92 / 10 10 10 20
PENSACOLA 75 91 77 91 / 10 10 0 20
DESTIN 76 89 78 89 / 10 10 20 10
EVERGREEN 68 91 70 92 / 0 10 10 20
WAYNESBORO 70 93 71 95 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 70 89 71 90 / 10 10 0 20
CRESTVIEW 69 92 71 92 / 10 10 10 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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