396
FXUS64 KMOB 071414
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
914 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 859 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY GIVEN THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY AIR
COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT.
- HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA
BEACHES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH SURF WITH 5-7FT
BREAKERS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS AND HIGH SEAS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO GALE-FORCE EXPECTED OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 859 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
DIPPING LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, AND THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS FOR AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO
DIP INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS AND ONGOING SEVERE
DROUGHT SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST SOME CONCERNS FOR WILDFIRES THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE WENT FORTH WITH A RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL OF THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT
FIRE POTENTIAL EXISTS. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE RELAXED
AND SIGNIFICANT FIRE POTENTIAL IS SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH AT LEAST
SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL PRESENT. MM/25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
DEEP UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN US WITH DRIER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINS JUST OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO JUST SIT OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A COUPLE
WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. WITH EACH PASSING SHORTWAVE,
WE WILL EXPECT THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO STRENGTHEN LEADING
TO A COUPLE DAYS OF RATHER BLUSTERY WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE CAROLINAS. OTHER THAN SOME GUSTY WINDS AND
HEIGHTENED FIRE RISK TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH
THURSDAY. ONCE WE GET PAST MIDWEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD
INTO THE AREA BY THE WEEKEND LEADING TO DRY CONDITIONS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE MID 80S. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY NOT BE GOOD FOR OUR ALREADY ONGOING DROUGHT AS WE WILL LIKELY
NOT SEE ANY APPRECIABLE RAIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARDS... ONE THING TO WATCH THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME COASTAL HAZARDS INCLUDING INCREASING RIP
CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF. CURRENT SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 5
TO 7 FEET WHICH MAY ALSO RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL RUNUP ON SOME OF
THE BARRIER ISLANDS THROUGH MID-WEEK. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ARE NOW IN EFFECT. BB-8
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH AREA WATERS. THIS
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RELAX SLIGHTLY AND TURN EASTERLY BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE TO VERY STRONG EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR OPEN THE GULF WATERS OUT 20 TO
60 NM BEGINNING LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. BB-8
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS BURNING CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY
AS GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS COUPLED WITH DRY ANTECEDENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. GIVEN THE STRENGTHENING SURFACE GRADIENT, WIND GUSTS
WILL LIKELY REACH THE 20 TO 25 MPH RANGE WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND
10 TO 15 MPH. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
AROUND 25-30% OR JUST ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WE ARE RIGHT ON THE
VERGE OF NEEDING RED FLAG WARNINGS AND DESPITE NOT REACHING EXACT
CRITERIA THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS AND RAPID
GROWTH WILL STILL EXIST. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND IF THEY TREND SLIGHTLY MORE
CONCERNING THEN A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED BY THE MORNING.
BB-8
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 78 55 76 56 / 0 0 10 10
PENSACOLA 78 58 75 58 / 0 0 10 20
DESTIN 75 58 74 57 / 0 0 20 20
EVERGREEN 78 50 75 50 / 0 0 10 10
WAYNESBORO 77 50 76 53 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 76 50 74 50 / 0 0 10 10
CRESTVIEW 78 51 75 52 / 0 0 10 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
FLZ201>206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT
THURSDAY FOR GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ670-675.
GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR GMZ670-
675.
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