782
FXUS64 KMOB 170558
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1158 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
- A MIX OF RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL MID SUNDAY MORNING.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS WIND CHILLS FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO
MIDDLE 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A RATHER LARGE UPPER TROF PATTERN UNDERGOES SEVERAL AMPLIFICATION
PERIODS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS VIGOROUS EMBEDDED SYSTEMS
PROGRESS THROUGH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THE FIRST OF THESE
EMBEDDED SYSTEMS BRINGS A SHARP UPPER TROF ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE EJECTING OFF
TO THE EAST AND WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTRY WEATHER TO A PORTION OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
WHICH WILL SUPPORT GOOD CHANCE TO CATEGORICAL POPS WEST OF I-65
AND CHANCE POPS FURTHER TO THE EAST. AS THE SHARP UPPER TROF
APPROACHES, ISENTROPIC LIFT BOTH IN THE FORM OF LAYER LIFTING FROM
COLDER AIR FLOWING INTO AREA ALONG WITH AN OVERRUNNING FLOW WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, THE ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROF WILL CAUSE THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXIT THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING, BRINGING A GRADUAL END TO THE PRECIPITATION. THE
PRECIPITATION REMAINS AS RAIN THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS,
THOUGH AS TEMPERATURES DROP SATURDAY NIGHT THE RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BEFORE THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END SUNDAY
MORNING. THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION OF SNOW REMAINS
LOW, WITH ABOUT A 10-30% CHANCE OF A TENTH (0.1) INCH OF SNOW
(MAYBE A BIT MORE) FALLING MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, INCLUDING
BALDWIN COUNTY ALABAMA. WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO BECOME NECESSARY FOR THIS GENERAL
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
DURING WHICH TIME A WEAK REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SYSTEM MOVING
THROUGH THE LARGE UPPER TROF PATTERN WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM ENOUGH THAT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINS AS
RAIN. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S TO AROUND 60, THEN
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 40S ON SUNDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE
50S. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S WELL INLAND TO
THE MID 30S AT THE COAST, THEN LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT
TEND TO RANGE FROM THE MID 20S INLAND TO AROUND 30 AT THE COAST.
WIND CHILL VALUES LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
STILL LOOK SET TO DROP TO THE UPPER TEENS WELL INLAND TO THE MID
20S NEAR THE COAST, AND THIS MAY WARRANT AN EVENTUAL COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE MID 20S WELL INLAND TO
THE MID 30S AT THE COAST, THEN LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT TEND TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID/UPPER 40S. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, THEN HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S AND 60S. A LOW RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS
SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. THE NORTHERLY FLOW INCREASES
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY ON SATURDAY, AND TO 10-15 KNOTS
SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PATCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WEST OF I-65, WITH SCATTERED PATCHES OF RAIN
ALONG AND EAST OF I-65 TAPERING OFF SATURDAY MORNING. THE COVERAGE
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF I-65 AND CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN, ALTHOUGH SOME
SNOW MAY START TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN WELL INLAND BY LATE
SATURDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL, EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CST FRI JAN 16 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING
EARLY TO MID MORNING ON SATURDAY. THE OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT THEN DIMINISHES ON SUNDAY.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COMES INTO EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE MARINE
AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING, THEN TAPERS
OFF SUNDAY MORNING. A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILS FOR MONDAY
THEN STRENGTHENS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING ON TUESDAY. SMALL
CRAFT MAY NEED TO EXERCISE CAUTION WELL OFFSHORE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 47 58 33 49 / 40 30 30 10
PENSACOLA 51 59 36 48 / 30 50 60 20
DESTIN 52 62 36 48 / 20 60 80 30
EVERGREEN 43 56 30 47 / 40 30 30 10
WAYNESBORO 41 53 27 46 / 80 10 10 0
CAMDEN 43 53 28 44 / 70 20 20 0
CRESTVIEW 45 58 32 48 / 30 50 60 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SATURDAY TO 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ650-655.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
GMZ670-675.
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