281
FXUS64 KMOB 291125
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
625 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
- SUMMERTIME HEAT CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES
AS HIGH AS 103 TO 107 ANY GIVEN DAY. HEAT INDICES MAY APPROACH
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND 108 TUESDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST TUESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK. A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK; NO UPDATES NEEDED. /96
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
AREA TODAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. SUBSIDENCE UNDER
THE RIDGE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. SOME AREAS COULD REACH THE UPPER 90S. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO FLIRT WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
EACH AFTERNOON, HOWEVER MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 103 TO 107
RANGE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, PLACING THE AREA IN AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME. INCREASED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE
EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR.
STORMS ON TUESDAY MAY ALSO HAVE THE CHANCE TO BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, WITH PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIGHTNING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WE REMAIN GENERALLY UNDER DEEP
LAYER EASTERLY FLOW WITH THE RIDGE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF US. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WHILE HIGHS CONTINUE TO TOP OUT IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS STAY WARM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEK. /13
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS LOCALIZED SPOTS OVER
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING,
BRINGING TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. ANY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED WILL
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH WINDS ALONG THE COAST SHOULD TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AFTER THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY PUSHES INLAND. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 231 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
A LIGHT DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BECOMING A
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW EACH NIGHT. EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN
AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH STORM CHANCES INCREASING ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. /98
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 96 75 95 76 / 0 0 40 40
PENSACOLA 95 79 95 79 / 0 0 50 40
DESTIN 93 80 93 79 / 10 0 40 30
EVERGREEN 97 75 95 75 / 0 0 50 20
WAYNESBORO 97 75 96 75 / 0 0 30 20
CAMDEN 93 75 95 75 / 0 0 30 10
CRESTVIEW 97 76 96 76 / 0 0 50 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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