787
FXUS64 KMOB 150441
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1141 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1047 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
- HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-107 ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY AS
SURF HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FEET.
- MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OVER THE OPEN GULF FROM LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION RETREATS FROM THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LOW/TROF FORMS OVER THE FAR
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND ADVANCES INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF. A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH MIDWEEK, SETTING
UP AN EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WHICH USHERS DRIER AIR INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE COASTAL COUNTIES TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE SEABREEZE, BUT
OTHERWISE SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SUPPRESS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH THE
BUILDING SURFACE RIDGE STRENGTHENS MAINLY OVER THE MARINE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE OVER THE MARINE AREA WHICH MAY AFFECT MAINLY
COASTAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA. DRY CONDITIONS OTHERWISE PREVAIL
THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF ALONG WITH A MODEST SURFACE REFLECTION TROF AND
IMPROVING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOLLOW FOR
SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW LOOKS TO SLOWLY PROGRESS A BIT FURTHER
ACROSS THE GULF ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
INCREASE.
A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY
INCREASE TO A HIGH RISK FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THEN A
MODERATE RISK FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY. AS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS SHIFT,
WILL NEED TO MONITOR SURF HEIGHTS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 4-5 FEET ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SHOULD THESE INCREASE
FURTHER, THEN A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WOULD LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY
FOR THESE DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100-107 ARE EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE A COMBINATION OF SOMEWHAT COOLER DAYTIME
HIGHS AND/OR LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL LIMIT HEAT INDEX
VALUES. /29
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON (10-20% CHANCE), MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST. CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR OR BRIEFLY
LOWER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY IN THE MORNING, TURNING
GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST. JGC/98
MARINE
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
A LIGHT DIURNAL FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING A
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY. A
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, GRADUALLY RELAXING INTO THE WEEKEND. 1 FOOT SEAS PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE INCREASING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY TO 4 TO 7 FEET.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MID WEEK. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 94 75 91 / 0 20 10 10
PENSACOLA 77 93 77 91 / 0 10 10 0
DESTIN 77 92 77 91 / 0 10 10 0
EVERGREEN 72 97 73 91 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 72 97 73 94 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 72 97 74 93 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 72 94 74 90 / 0 20 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY
FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
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