116
FXUS64 KMOB 210612
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1212 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
- THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER RETURNS TO PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS COMING WEEKEND AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES IN. FORECAST TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
- IN THE WAKE OF THIS WEEKENDS SYSTEM, VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPING
INTO THE LOWER 20'S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY
FOR THE CURRENT PACKAGE...THE HAPPENINGS IN THE FIRST 6 PERIODS OF
THE FORECAST LEAD TO A WINTER EVENT THIS COMING WEEKEND. TAKING A
LOOK AT THE SYNOPTICS FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK, A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH A SHALLOW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST PASSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING GULF MOISTURE INLAND OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY/WESTERN SOUTHEAST, AND PRECIPITABLE H20
VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.2" OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND NEARBY. A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE,
STALLING NEAR THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END
OF THURSDAY. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASS
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
PUSH FURTHER SOUTH TO VARYING EXTENTS IN RESPONSE. ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST OPENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISENTROPIC CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE
ENDING SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND A COLDER, DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK,
ENHANCING THE UPGLIDE FLOW AS IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS
START THE BEGINNING OF THE COMING WEEK AS A RESULT, WITH WWAS
EXPECTED.
TAKING A MORE FOCUSED LOOK AT THIS WEEKEND'S PRECIPITATION TYPE. HOW
MUCH AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BEFORE THIS WEEKEND'S PRECIPITATION OCCURS HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT IN THE GUIDANCE, BOTH RUN TO RUN AND BETWEEN MODELS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS PAINTING ICE ACCUMULATION TOTALS AT MOST OF
0.25" OVER NORTHWESTERN CORNERS OF WAYNE AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES,
TAPERING QUICKLY DOWNWARD THE FURTHER SOUTHEAST ONE GOES. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR AND NOT PIN DOWN SPECIFIC NUMBERS AT THIS TIME.
WITH GENERAL ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND, THE RIP CURRENT RISK
REMAINS LOW TO LOW MODERATE THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH AN UPTICK TO
MODERATE TO AT TIMES STRONG THIS WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST TUE JAN 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY THAT COULD ENTER INTO HIGH-END MVFR LEVELS
BY MID-AFTERNOON. LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS ON WEDNESDAY. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST WED JAN 21 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WILL
EASE TO LIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL BECOME A MODERATE TO AT TIMES
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW THIS WEEKEND. AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PASSES,
OFFSHORE FLOW INCREASES IN THE COMING WEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 55 71 54 68 / 30 40 30 40
PENSACOLA 57 69 57 68 / 20 20 20 40
DESTIN 55 67 56 67 / 10 10 20 40
EVERGREEN 47 70 49 66 / 30 40 40 40
WAYNESBORO 50 67 51 63 / 60 50 50 40
CAMDEN 48 65 49 62 / 50 60 50 50
CRESTVIEW 46 71 50 69 / 10 20 20 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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