220
FXUS64 KMOB 081943
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
243 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
- HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 RANGE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL RETURN FOR ALL AREA
BEACHES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
THE UPPER TROUGH NOW LIFTING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE WESTERLIES
THROUGH THURSDAY, RESULTING IN A WEAK ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
THROUGH FRIDAY. SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE, WITH PWATS LOCALLY
EXCEEDING 2 INCHES, ALONG WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN OUR
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. COVERAGE APPEARS A BIT
LOWER THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
COAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG THE LAND
BREEZE. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD BE EXPECTED TO SHIFT INLAND BY AFTERNOON
AS OUR BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON
THURSDAY, ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZE TO PROGRESS A BIT FARTHER INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
A PATTERN SHIFT TAKES SHAPE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
PRONOUNCED POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM
LARGER-SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPING OFF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. AS A
LARGE UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S., THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD, PLACING THE AREA UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
MIDLEVEL FLOW AND DRIVING A LARGE-SCALE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
ACTIVITY (40-60% POPS) EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AND POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN SPOTS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ENSEMBLE MEAN
PWATS CLIMBING ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY MAY FAVOR
ENHANCED RAINFALL RATES, AND TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE EXACT
TIMING AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE PROGRESSION,
WHICH WILL INFLUENCE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL ULTIMATELY
DEVELOPS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND PEAK AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-107 RANGE. OVERNIGHT LOWS OFFER LITTLE
RELIEF WITH MID 70S INLAND AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.
INCREASED RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL COOL
FRONT ENTERING THE REGION MAY BRING HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR MANY
AREAS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
AT THE BEACHES, A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO A MODERATE RISK ON FRIDAY FOR ALL AREA
BEACHES, PERSISTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. JGC/98
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY, BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. /73
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE WEEK, BECOMING SOUTHERLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY, BUILDING TO 2
TO 3 FEET BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN
AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 93 76 92 / 10 30 20 40
PENSACOLA 79 93 79 92 / 10 30 20 30
DESTIN 81 92 81 91 / 20 20 20 30
EVERGREEN 74 94 74 93 / 10 40 10 50
WAYNESBORO 74 95 74 94 / 20 30 10 20
CAMDEN 74 93 75 93 / 10 40 10 30
CRESTVIEW 75 95 75 93 / 10 30 10 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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