314
FXUS64 KMOB 061903
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
203 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.
- THE RISK FOR STRONG RIP CURRENTS INCREASES MIDWEEK, WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ANTICIPATED FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY, A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASS OVER/NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST, HAVING SHIFTED AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE GULF
FURTHER SOUTH. THIS ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO MORE DIRECTLY AFFECT THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE FIRST ROUND PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A COMBINATION OF MIXED LAYER CAPES
AROUND 2000J/KG DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON, EBWD SHEAR AROUND 60 KTS,
DCAPE OF 700-900J/KG, AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C ALL LEAD
TO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH THE FULL HOUSE OF THREATS, DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. 0-1KM HELICITIES AROUND 150M^2/S^2
THIS AFTERNOON RISE TO AROUND 250M^2/S^2 TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
WORKS IT WAY SOUTH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
SOUTHEAST, ENHANCING THE PROBABILITY OF SUPERCELLS. ADD IN GUIDANCE
ADVERTISING GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AS A WEAKER UPPER JET JUST NORTH
OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST WORKS WITH A STRONGER ONE ON THE FRONT
SIDE OF A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH PASSING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE SOUTHEAST, AND SPC HAS PUT AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND A SLIGHT RISK AS FAR SOUTH
AS A STONE CO TO COVINGTON CO LINE. TIMING HAS INDIVIDUAL CELLS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER MISSISSIPPI, INCREASING IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THEY SHIFT SOUTH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD CAP AROUND 10K' OVER SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI HELPING TO LIMIT ANY TALLER STORMS NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS CAP TO DISAPPEAR AS THE MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES. AS INSTABILITY
DECREASES AFTER SUNRISE, AM EXPECTING THE THE POSSIBLITY OF STRONG
STORMS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE FULL
GAMUT OF STORM MODES IS EXPECTED, BUT NOT TO BE LEFT OUT IS POSSIBLE
WATER ISSUES. WITH A SOUPY AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE H20 LEVELS IN THE
1.9"-2.2" RANGE), THESE STORMS ONCE THEY GET GOING, ARE EXPECTED TO
BE EFFICIENT RAINERS, WITH TRAINING CELLS EXPECTED, ACCUMULATION
COULD LOCALLY TOP 3"-5" THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. HELPING TO TEMPER THE WATER ISSUES IS THE CURRENT
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH ENOUGH GREENERY TO BREAK SOILS UP AND
ALLOW THE WATER TO SOAK UP THE WATER. STILL, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THIS ALSO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.
THURSDAY, THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING, REACHING THE COAST IN THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE CONVECTION
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE FRONT WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
THE FORECAST AREA. OTHER THAN THE POSSIBLITY OF ROWDY STORMS, AM NOT
EXPECTING WATER ISSUES.
MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSES OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, BRINGING MORE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION, WITH ELEVATED
RUMBLERS MIXED IN AT TIMES. AT THIS POINT, WILL NEED TO INCREASE
MONITORING OF WATER ISSUES, WITH ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY
ADDING ONTO THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IF SOME AREAS DO NOT GET RID OF
THE WATER THAT HAS FALLEN, THERE WILL BE. OUR FLASHIER SMALLER
RIVERS MAY HAVE ISSUES, ALONG WITH THE MORE URBANIZED AREAS.
NOT TO FORGET, WITH ALL THE RAIN, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL DROP BELOW INTO FRIDAY. SOME SUN MAKING TO THE GROUND ALONG
WITH A RETURN OF BETTER SOUTHERLY FLOW AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT ON, HAVE HAD LITTLE TIME TO DIGEST. MORE ENERGY
PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH A COLD FRONT USHERING IN DRIER AIR
EARLY IN THE COMING WEEK. A REPRIEVE IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, SOUTHERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASED SWELL
TO AREA BEACHES. COMBINED WITH A LARGE TIDAL RANGE, THE NEXT FEW
DAYS A HIGH END MODERATE RISK, AT TIMES HIGH, IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS
TO IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA DUE TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. DEEPER
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA STARTING AROUND MID-AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS
TO LIFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO BOUTS OF HEAVY RAIN. THESE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS SAME REGION OVERNIGHT
BEFORE EXPANDING EAST AND SOUTH TO THE COAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, WITH LOCAL DROPS TO CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS
TO ONSHORE TEMPORARILY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE A PASSING SYSTEM
BRINGS BACK LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SUNDAY.
/16
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
DAILY RAINFALL, BOTH OVER AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE RISES IN RIVERS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 81 63 76 / 50 80 10 60
PENSACOLA 73 82 66 77 / 30 70 10 40
DESTIN 72 81 66 78 / 30 70 10 30
EVERGREEN 68 80 57 75 / 80 80 0 40
WAYNESBORO 66 77 57 73 / 90 50 0 40
CAMDEN 67 76 56 73 / 100 70 0 30
CRESTVIEW 71 84 60 78 / 40 90 10 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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