730
FXUS64 KMOB 141120
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
620 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 620 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH TODAY, WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. ANY STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES ALONG THE NORTHWEST
FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH TODAY. A MODERATE RISK CONTINUES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF AREA BEACHES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- HOTTER CONDITIONS RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED. SS/97
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MEANDERS WEST TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AN UPPER RIDGE
ORGANIZES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, THOUGH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
STRETCHING EAST OVER THE TENN RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST REMAINS
EMBEDDED IN THE RIDGE. A SOUPY AIRMASS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
(PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES IN THE 2"-2.3") SHIFTS NORTH AS A RIDGE OF
UPPER PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST, WITH THE
FORECAST AREA DRYING OUT IN THE PROCESS. GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT
WITH THE NORTHWARD SHIFT, THOUGH THE MAJORITY DROP POPS TO A FEW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, IF ENOUGH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. WITH A SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SHIFTING WEST TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE
SHIFTING UPPER LOW, ANY STORMS DEVELOPING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WILL TAKE A MORE EASTERLY PATH.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, BELOW SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S TUESDAY RISE INTO THE AROUND 90 TO LOW 90S FOR
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE AROUND 70 TO LOW 70S INLAND FROM
THE COAST RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BY THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S THROUGH MID
WEEK.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE SOUTHEAST, EVENTUALLY
DIGGING A MEAN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS OR THE EAST
COAST. INCREASED MOISTURE MOVES BACK WITH THE DEVELOPING UPPER
TROUGH. WITH VARYING PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH, WHERE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE REGION VARIES. THE BEST
COMPROMISE IS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT MORE, TO SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. HEAT INDICES ALSO RISE AS MOISTURE
LEVELS RISE OVER THE FORECAST AREA, RISING TO HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS
OVER MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, A MODERATE TO
STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH A LARGE TIDAL RANGE
WILL CREATE A MODERATE TO HIGH RIP RISK THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
A HIGHER RISK ON OUR FLORIDA BEACHES. THE RIP RISK WILL EASE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK TO A LOW AS THE ONSHORE FLOW DECREASES AND TIDAL
CYCLES SHRINKS.
/16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF STORMS. THESE
STORMS ARE ACCOMPANIED BY ERRATIC WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS
AND DROPS OF CIGS/VIS TO MVFR AND EVEN LOCALLY IFR WITHIN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. BY MID MORNING, LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME GENERALLY
WESTERLY AT 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY
ALONG/OFF THE COAST. THESE WINDS LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL
WANE AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. SS/97
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT TUE JUL 14 2026
A LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE, GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 88 71 91 73 / 50 10 10 0
PENSACOLA 89 75 92 77 / 40 20 10 0
DESTIN 88 77 91 79 / 40 30 10 10
EVERGREEN 86 68 89 70 / 80 30 20 10
WAYNESBORO 85 70 89 71 / 80 40 20 0
CAMDEN 83 69 86 70 / 90 50 40 10
CRESTVIEW 89 70 92 72 / 60 20 10 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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