691
FXUS64 KMOB 181137
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
637 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 628 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
- SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THIS
WEEKEND WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
- WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK WITH THE HEAT INDEX POTENTIALLY
SOARING TO 105-111 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- THERE IS A LOW (30%) PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
HIRES GUIDANCE HAS HAD A HARD TIME RESOLVING THESE MESOSCALE
DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS, SO NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO
THE POP FORECAST. GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY, WITH MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE KEEPING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS,
DID NOT ADJUST THE FORECAST TOO MUCH. OTHERWISE, EXPECTED THE HEAT
TO CONTINUE, WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS
ONCE AGAIN. /73
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
A COMPLEX PATTERN UNFOLDS OVER THE COMING DAYS AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
CONTINUES TO DRIFT WEST ACROSS THE GULF. AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
MEANDER ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AS WEAK TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE
GRADUALLY DEVELOPS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES NORTH.
THERE REMAINS A LOW (30%) PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. GIVEN THE LACK OF A SURFACE
REFLECTION AT THIS POINT, WE CONTINUE TO HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
ANY POTENTIAL TRACK/MOVEMENT/STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. AND,
UNFORTUNATELY, OUR FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK HINGES ON THE
TRAJECTORY OF THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. IF THE SYSTEM DRIFTS NORTH
INTO THE BIG BEND REGION, THERE WOULD BE LITTLE TO NO TROPICAL
IMPACTS AND, INSTEAD, THE HEAT WILL CRANK UP ACROSS THE AREA. ON
THE FLIP SIDE, IF THIS SYSTEM DRIFTS SOMEWHAT MORE TO THE WEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF, WE COULD BE DEALING WITH HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES, GUSTY MARINE WINDS, AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR RIP
CURRENTS. SO...ALL OF THAT TO SAY - IT'S TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS HERE LOCALLY.
IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK, RIDGING BEGINS
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. WHILE THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR POPS TO RETURN TO THE NORMAL DIURNAL PATTERN, WE WILL HAVE TO
KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR COMPLEXES OF STORMS POTENTIALLY DROPPING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. IF THE FIRST TROPICAL SCENARIO PANS OUT,
THEN EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 105-111 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
BEACH FORECAST - THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE SECOND
TROPICAL SCENARIO PANS OUT, WE COULD SEE AN UPWARD TREND IN THE RIP
CURRENT RISK STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE, WE DON'T
ANTICIPATE THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO CHANGE UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN IT
INCREASES TO A MODERATE RISK. 07/MB
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH, EXCEPT IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SCATTERED STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. /73
MARINE
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY 1 TO 2 FEET. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 96 75 96 74 / 30 20 40 30
PENSACOLA 95 78 92 78 / 50 50 60 40
DESTIN 92 78 90 78 / 60 60 70 40
EVERGREEN 93 73 93 73 / 30 30 50 40
WAYNESBORO 95 75 96 73 / 10 10 10 10
CAMDEN 93 74 93 74 / 20 20 30 30
CRESTVIEW 95 74 92 73 / 50 60 60 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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