871
FXUS64 KMOB 191207
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
707 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
- MODERATE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING TODAY FOR MUCH OF THE LOCAL
AREA, LESSENS TO SLIGHT RISK OVER THE INTERIOR SATURDAY.
- THERE REMAINS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE TODAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
AREA RADARS ARE ONLY DETECTING SPOTTY SHOWERS AT THE MOMENT, BUT
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AROUND MID-
MORNING AND CONTINUING UNTIL MID-EVENING. FLASH FLOODING CAUSED BY
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE POSSIBLE. NEARLY THE ENTIRE
AREA REMAINS UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE TODAY. WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
19.00Z UPPER AIR MAPS REFLECT A SHORT-WAVE, ALBEIT VIGOROUS TROF
AT LOW TO MID LEVELS EJECTING ACROSS NORTHERN GA. AT THE BASE OF
THIS FEATURE, ROUNDS OF DEEP CONVECTION TRACKS EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
IN COMBINATION WITH FORCED ASCENT FROM RAIN COOLED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE (PWAT'S
~2.3"), STORMS HAVE A HAD A HISTORY OF HIGH RAIN RATES AND THIS
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR-TERM. FLASH FLOOD RISK REMAINS
MODERATE TO HIGH TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE SHORT-WAVE TROF MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
FRIDAY, THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE GULF
AND THE ADJACENT WESTERLIES HOLDING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH KEEPS THE
ENVIRONMENT UNSETTLED AS A SERIES OF EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
WILL BE PASSING THROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES SOUTH OF A FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH SUPPORTS MODEST ASCENT WITHIN A DEEPLY MOIST TROPICAL
AIRMASS DURING PEAK INSTABILITY. NUMEROUS TO CATEGORICAL POPS ARE
SUPPORTED. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR STORMS THAT MOVE REPEATEDLY
OVER THE SAME AREAS, RESULTING IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. A MODERATE
RISK OF FLOODING REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY. A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME MARGINALLY SEVERE FRIDAY TOO. THE CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY AS THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE PATTERN
REMAINS IN A PERSISTENCE TYPE PATTERN. THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE
OR WILL LIFT NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WOULD FAVOR LOWER
POPS THEN. HEAT INDICES EDGE UPWARD WITH HIGHEST VALUES 102 TO
107 MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
..BEACH FORECAST
A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES FOR ALL FLORIDA AND ALABAMA BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BREAKERS OF 5 TO 8 FEET THROUGH AM SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6
FEET BY AFTERNOON. HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 6 PM THIS
EVENING. /10
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AROUND MID-MORNING AND CONTINUE UNTIL MID-
EVENING. WHILE MOD OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS INLAND
AREAS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF STORMS WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES MAINLY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. LIFR VISIBILITES WITH PERHAPS INSTANCES OF VLIFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL
BE VARIABLE, HOVERING BETWEEN MVFR/TO IFR CATEGORIES. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE GULF THIS MORNING.
LIGHT TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL OCCUR
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT ON
TUESDAY. SEAS AROUND 6 FEET THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TO 2
TO 3 FEET BY THE END OF THE WEEK. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 90 76 89 75 / 70 60 70 50
PENSACOLA 90 78 88 78 / 50 60 70 40
DESTIN 88 78 87 78 / 60 70 70 30
EVERGREEN 86 72 86 72 / 90 60 80 40
WAYNESBORO 87 73 86 73 / 90 60 90 50
CAMDEN 83 71 83 71 / 90 50 80 30
CRESTVIEW 88 74 88 73 / 80 70 80 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
GM...NONE.
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