925
FXUS64 KMOB 180149
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
849 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 746 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY FOR
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE AROUND MOBILE BAY ON THURSDAY. HIGH SURF ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY COULD RESULT IN LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FOR SMALL CRAFT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 746 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
TROPICAL STORM AUTHOR IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED NEAR GALVESTON BAY
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE SYSTEM REMAINS HIGHLY SHEARED
WITH MUCH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMOVED WELL TO THE EAST AND
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WHICH HAS DETACHED FROM
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA
COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MAY
SOON BEGIN TO UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THERE APPEARS TO
BE A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE WHERE SURFACE WINDS BACK SOUTHEASTERLY. IN
ADDITION, NOTABLE MID LEVEL DRY AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST
SIDE OF THE MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER. AS THIS TRANSITION
CONTINUES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WE ARE EXPECTING THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD AND ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA LATER THIS
EVENING IN RESPONSE TO AN INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL
ALSO SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE MID LEVEL LOW. THE
LATEST VAD PROFILE FROM KHDC IS CURRENTLY SHOWING 30-40KTS BETWEEN
1-2KM AND NEAR SURFACE WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
AT BUOYS JUST SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST. THIS GIVES US A
REASONABLE IDEA REGARDING THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, COASTAL
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOW THAT
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
70S. THIS VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS SUPPORTING A CONTINUED
MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH MLCAPES RANGING FROM
1500-2500J/KG. THE LATEST 00Z SOUNDING FROM LIX SHOWS THIS WELL
WITH THE GREATEST LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY CONFINED WITHIN THE
LOWEST 3KM. THE SOUNDING IS VERY MOIST IN GENERAL WITH PRECIP
WATER AMOUNTS NEAR 2.3".
AS THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION LIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, EXPECT THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL JET NOW JUST OFFSHORE OF
LOUISIANA TO OVERSPREAD SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THEN OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. ENHANCED LIFT
ALONG THE LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND TO THE EAST OF THE MID LEVEL LOW
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THERE MAY
BE A FOCUS FOR EXTREME RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL TORNADOES IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LIFTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY
TRUE WHERE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS CAN DEVELOP AND LATCH ON TO THE
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY. HERE, HODOGRAPHS
SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LONG AND CURVED IN THE LOWEST 3KM AND
WHERE 0-3KM CAPE SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 150-200J/KG, WHICH SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND RISK FOR A FEW
TORNADOES. THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE POOR MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES, BUT THIS MAY NOT BE AS MUCH OF A FACTOR CONSIDERING
THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW AND TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF THE MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS LIKELY OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF HIGH RAINFALL
RATES AND POTENTIAL TRAINING. IN ANY AREA WHERE THIS OCCURS,
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATEST CAM GUIDANCE
IS STILL INDICATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD TOTALS OF 4-8
INCHES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THE LATEST 00Z HRRR NOW HAS
SWATHS OF 10-15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
INTO SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS IN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE LATER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF THIS
UPWARD TREND CONTINUES IN THE OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION/HI-RES
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. IF SO, WE WILL NEED TO UP OUR STORM TOTALS WITH
THE LATE EVENING FORECAST. THIS WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY AND
UPDATES PROVIDED AS NECESSARY. /JLH
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR IS CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST CENTRAL
TEXAS COAST AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA BY TONIGHT. ARTHUR THEN WEAKENS TO A REMNANT TROPICAL
SYSTEM AND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION ON THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE, THE BROAD UPPER TROF PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN STATES TAKES ON A BIT MORE OF A
MERIDIONAL ORIENTATION BEFORE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THIS WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY BRING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY WHICH SHIFTS TO NEAR THE COAST ON SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EITHER DISSIPATES OR LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH SATURDAY
NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. A VERY WET
FORECAST IS IN STORE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR
MOVING THROUGH FOLLOWED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
AREA, AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LINGERS OVER THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
FOLLOW FOR SUNDAY, THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS RETURN FOR TUESDAY. /29
..HEAVY RAINFALL
THE RAINY PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
FORECASTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH OUR
MAIN IMPACTS TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
STORM ARTHUR. AFTER MOST OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR
DEPARTS, WE ARE LEFT WITH LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE AND A COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO MORE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. WE ARE UNDER RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE
WPC FOR THE NEXT 4 DAYS. TODAY, THE AREA IS SPLIT WITH A SLIGHT RISK
IN THE EASTERN HALF AND A MODERATE RISK FOR THE WESTERN HALF. MOST
NOTABLY, OUR DAY 2 AND 3 RISK IS MODERATE FOR ESSENTIALLY ALL OF THE
CWA. SATURDAY OUR AREA IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS CLOSE TO FULLY SATURATED BASED ON
SURROUNDING 12Z RAOBS. OUR PWATS HAVE BEEN VERY HIGH IN THE 2.2-2.4
INCH RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT AND ABOVE THE DAILY MAX FOR
CLIMATOLOGY. OF NOTE, THE 12Z LIX SOUNDING HAS A 2.43 INCH PWAT.
ENSEMBLES SHOW THIS DEEP MOISTURE PLUME OF 2+ INCH PWATS PERSISTING
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
FROM YESTERDAY, THERE WAS A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION FOOTPRINT BASED ON ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN IN OUR AREA LATE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING IN OUR MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AND SPREAD EAST. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL WITH RATES TOPPING
OUT AT 3-4 INCHES/HOUR. FOR WHAT ITS WORTH, MULTIPLE DETERMINISTIC
CAMS SHOW SWATHS OF 10+ INCHES BUT ARE NOT GEOGRAPHICALLY
CONSISTENT. HREF LPMMS FOR 6 HOURS SHOWS 4-8 INCH SWATHS AND 24 HOUR
LPMMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT OF 6-12+ INCHES THROUGH PARTS OF OUR
MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES AND INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA. WHILE THESE TEND TO
BE SOMEWHAT OVERDONE, IT INDICATES THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES TOMORROW. OUR FFG IS DECENTLY LOW GIVEN
PREVIOUS DAYS OF RAINFALL AND ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS BEING QUITE
SATURATED. 1 HOUR FFG IS AROUND 2.5-3 INCHES AND 3 HOUR IS NOT MUCH
BETTER AT 3-3.5 INCHES FOR MOST, EXCEPT AREAS ALONG THE COASTLINE.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6 INCHES TOMORROW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1-3
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY BRINGING STORM TOTALS GENERALLY AROUND 4-8 INCHES
WITH LOCALIZED AREAS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
EVEN WITH THE LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS FOR FRIDAY, THE RISK FOR
FLOODING IS STILL VERY HIGH AFTER THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PREVIOUS DAY. THIS COULD NECESSITATE AN UPGRADE IN RISK FOR FRIDAY
FROM WPC IF THE CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. WE ALREADY HAVE SEVERAL
RIVERS IN MINOR FLOOD AND THESE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE IN
STAGE TO MODERATE AS WELL AS SMALLER RIVERS GOING INTO FLOOD STAGE
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AXIS SETS UP. SS/97
..SEVERE THREAT
MLCAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON, DIMINISHING
SOMEWHAT TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. LOW SHEAR VALUES CURRENTLY
OVER THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO TREND HIGHER AS THE REMNANTS OF ARTHUR
APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE CONVECTION WILL PLAY OUT, CAMS INDICATE
THAT A QLCS MAY DEVELOP ON THURSDAY OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THE MARINE AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA MAINLY FOR A RISK WITH LATE NIGHT CONVECTION, THEN A
MARGINAL RISK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY, AFTER WHICH MAY COME
TO AN END BY THE EVENING DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT THE QLCS
DEVELOPS. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ALSO EXISTS ON FRIDAY
OVER INLAND PORTIONS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
AS THE WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA. /29
..COASTAL FLOODING
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BECOMES A CONCERN TOMORROW WHERE HIGH TIDE
COMBINES WITH PERSISTENT INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. P-ETSS GUIDANCE AT
MOBILE STATE DOCKS SHOWS A PEAK OF 1.5 FEET MHHW THIS AFTERNOON AND
1.9 FEET MHHW TOMORROW AFTERNOON. VALUES ELSEWHERE APPROACH, BUT
STAY BELOW THE 2.0 FEET MHHW THRESHOLD SO SOME MINOR INUNDATION
COULD OCCUR FOR TYPICAL TROUBLE SPOTS LIKE DAUPHIN ISLAND AND FORT
PICKENS. WE HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY AND BALDWIN COUNTY FOR THURSDAY
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING. SS/97
..BEACH FORECAST
THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS NOW A HIGH FOR ALL FLORIDA AND ALABAMA
BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NWPS SHOWS INCREASING WAVE
ACTION TO 5-7 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS ISSUED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE ENTIRE
GULF COASTLINE IN OUR AREA. SS/97
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SHIELD OF OVERCAST OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA FROM
OFF THE NORTHWEST GULF. DEEP CONVECTION WELL TO THE EAST OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR'S CENTER OF CIRCULATION ON THE UPPER TX
COAST, IS CONFINED WELL TO OUR SOUTHWEST SOUTH OF THE LA COAST.
RADAR IS SHOWING MOSTLY ISOLATED SHRA LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER THE
LOCAL AREA. WILL CARRY SHRA AS PREDOMINANT WEATHER THIS EVENING
WITH BASES RANGING FROM MVFR/VFR CATEGORIES. VSBY OK IN THE NEAR
TERM. APPEARS BY AND AFTER 18.09Z THROUGH MID AM THU, COVERAGE OF
SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AND CIGS LOWER. VSBY LIKELY TO
LOWER TO IFR/PERHAPS LIFR CATEGORIES IN +RA. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE
GUSTY AT TIMES AROUND 25 KTS. /10
MARINE
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME A MODERATE TO STRONG
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA FROM 10 PM
THIS EVENING TO 6 AM FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHES
TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY, WITH A
PRIMARILY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 84 77 90 / 90 90 70 80
PENSACOLA 79 86 80 90 / 70 90 70 70
DESTIN 79 86 80 88 / 60 90 70 70
EVERGREEN 74 81 73 87 / 70 100 80 90
WAYNESBORO 73 82 74 88 / 90 100 70 90
CAMDEN 73 79 72 84 / 80 100 90 90
CRESTVIEW 75 82 75 88 / 70 90 80 90
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
ALZ265-266.
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ630>632-634-
650-655-670-675.
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