817
FXUS64 KMOB 211820
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
120 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ACROSS
THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA GULF BEACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- A SERIES OF STORM COMPLEXES WILL LIKELY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS STEADILY MOVED ITS WAY INLAND THIS
MORNING AS IT SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE,
SKIES HAVE SCATTERED OUT AND SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS STILL SOLIDLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S, SBCAPES ARE INCREASING TO AROUND 3000-3500 J/KG.
THEREFORE, EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INLAND AREAS WITH LIKELY LESS
COVERAGE AT THE COAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK, SO NO ORGANIZED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER, A BRIEF STRONG
STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2 TO
2.15 INCHES. THEREFORE, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE, BUT NO
WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED FROM TODAY'S
STORM ACTIVITY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL TREND A LITTLE LOWER ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK DEPARTING SHORTWAVE. PWATS
ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 1.6-1.7 INCHES. EVEN WITH THIS, A FEW
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAT OF THE DAY. IN
ADDITION, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND HELP SPARK A COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE
MIDSOUTH REGION. GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW, THIS COMPLEX
IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND MAY ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIR
AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR, THIS COMPLEX IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES CLOSER TO OUR INLAND AREAS. HOWEVER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT
COULD HELP ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY NORTH OF HWY 84. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT MODELS TYPICALLY STRUGGLE WITH THESE SUMMERTIME
NORTHWEST FLOW COMPLEXES AND WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON ITS
EVOLUTION AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. SPC CLIPS THE FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A MARGINAL RISK TOMORROW TO ACCOUNT FOR A
STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL IF THE COMPLEX STAYS A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
THE PATTERN IS LIKELY TO TURN MORE ACTIVE AGAIN IN THE TUESDAY TO
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. A STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE GULF UP INTO TX, WHICH WILL PUT US FIRMLY IN DEEP LAYER
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A SERIES OF STORM
COMPLEXES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL EXPAND FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL RESULT
IN RAIN CHANCES FINALLY DECREASING IN EARNEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT AND MUGGY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB INTO 100-105 DEGREE RANGE WITH HUMID LOWS
IN THE 70S.
BEACH FORECAST: BASED ON LOCAL BEACH REPORTS THIS MORNING, WE
UPGRADED TO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. A MODERATE
RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY. 34/JFB
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 119 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THE MOST OF THE WEEK. A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET THROUGH
EARLY THIS WEEK WILL SUBSIDE TO 1 TO 2 FEET BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. 34/JFB
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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