417
FXUS64 KMOB 051922
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
222 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 222 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
- HEAT INDICES WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK,
REACHING AROUND 100-107 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT AREA
BEACHES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO WEAKEN TODAY.
OUR AREA IS BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL HIGHS WITH ONE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND THE OTHER OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN US. THIS LEAVES
US UNDER VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. THE
GENERALLY DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SLOWLY MOISTENS AND PWAT
VALUES CURRENTLY AROUND 1.5" CLIMB CLOSER TO MORE NORMAL VALUES OF
1.7-1.8" BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SHEAR IS VERY LIMITED AND DCAPE
APPROACHES 1000-1500 J/KG, SO ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
MAINLY OF THE PULSE VARIETY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
DOWNBURST WINDS.
THE UPPER HIGH OFF THE COAST OF THE EASTERN US BEGINS TO BUILD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PUTS THE
AREA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH WITH GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ADVECTING DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK. PWATS REACH TO 2" BY SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY
NUMEROUS STORMS COVERING MOST INLAND AREAS EACH AFTERNOON SUNDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE MARINE WATERS
WITH THE LAND BREEZE IN THE MORNING AND WILL TRANSITION INLAND WITH
THE SEA BREEZE AND ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EACH AFTERNOON. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EACH NIGHT WITH
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM 100-107 AND THE DAILY AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES SHOULD
PREVENT ANY HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET.
..BEACH FORECAST
THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS LOW FOR ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH
THURSDAY BEFORE INCREASING TO A MODERATE RISK FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. SURF HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SS/97
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
AFTERNOON CU WITH LOWEST BASES GENERALLY 3 TO 5 KFT EXPECTED IN
THE NEAR TERM. THERE ARE A FEW SHRA/TSRA HERE AND THERE AND COULD
SEE A FEW STORMS NEAR MOB/BFM TERMINALS WHICH WILL MENTION THESE
IN THE VICINITY GENERALLY 19 TO 22Z TIME FRAME. OVERALL, VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS. A SMALL CHANCE OF AM COASTAL
SHRA/TSRA THU AM. /10
MARINE
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
CURRENT LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFT ON THURSDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY BEFORE BECOMING GENERALLY SOUTHERLY BY THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5-10 KNOTS
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
STAY 1-2 FEET THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY THROUGH MID
NEXT WEEK, SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THEN
SHIFTS INLAND FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS. SS/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 91 72 91 / 10 30 0 20
PENSACOLA 77 89 76 90 / 10 30 0 20
DESTIN 79 88 77 89 / 0 20 20 30
EVERGREEN 72 92 71 92 / 10 20 10 30
WAYNESBORO 73 94 73 95 / 0 20 10 10
CAMDEN 73 90 72 91 / 0 20 10 10
CRESTVIEW 72 92 71 93 / 10 30 0 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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