739
FXUS64 KMOB 091211
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
711 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIALLY
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR TODAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE
SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE LEADING EDGE, WHICH
WILL COMPRISE MUCH OF THE DEEPER CONVECTION, WILL PUSH SOUTH OF
THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY AN AREA OF LINGERING
SHOWERS SLOWLY TAPERING OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SOME OF THE
STRONGER CONVECTION MAY BRING GUSTY SURFACE WINDS UP TO 40 MPH
REQUIRING THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM ONE-HALF TO 1.5
INCHES, WITH A FEW SPOTS POTENTIALLY RECEIVING UP TO 2 INCHES
WHERE STORMS LINGER RESULTING IN NUISANCE-TYPE FLOODING. NO
UPDATES TO THE PRODUCTS ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN PERSISTS OVER THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY AS A LARGE UPPER TROF PATTERN REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PLAINS TO THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES. A SERIES OF VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MEANWHILE, AIDED BY A
REMNANT UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WHICH SHEARS OUT
DOWNSTREAM. ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AND
PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THIS PATTERN, ALTHOUGH
TIMING THESE HAS PROVED DIFFICULT DUE TO THE INHERENTLY NOISY
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. THAT SAID, THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
LIKELY IN THE FORM OF AN MCS, WITH SOME CONVECTION LINGERING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS LATE TONIGHT WILL PROBABLY BE ELEVATED, AND IT'S NOT
CLEAR IF CONVECTION WILL MANAGE TO BECOME SURFACE BASED ON
SATURDAY. LAPSE RATES WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER APPEAR TO RANGE FROM
6.5 TO POSSIBLY 7.5 C/KM, AND IF THESE HIGHER END LAPSE RATES ARE
REALIZED AND SHEAR PROFILES PROVE TO BE FAVORABLE, THEN THE
CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO SUPPORT A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND
POSSIBLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON SUNDAY REMAINS DIFFICULT TO
ASCERTAIN, BUT WITH THE CONTINUING SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE OPTED
FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS. SHEAR VALUES LOOK LOW ON SUNDAY AND
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TYPICALLY RANGE FROM 20-30 KNOTS, BUT
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POSSIBLE. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS PERIOD AT THIS POINT, THOUGH STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF MORE FAVORABLE
SHEAR VALUES ARE REALIZED. THE BROAD UPPER TROF PATTERN AMPLIFIES
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN
MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MEANWHILE BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, WITH THE
FRONT STALLING NEAR THE COAST BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY NIGHT
INCREASING TO PREDOMINATELY LIKELY POPS ON MONDAY, THEN DRY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
FAVORABLE SHEAR VALUES APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE STORMS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED FOR ALABAMA BEACHES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE BEACHES ARE ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A
MODERATE RISK. A MODERATE RISK FOLLOWS FOR ALL BEACH AREAS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN A LOW RISK IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
IFR AND MVFR CEILINGS MOSTLY PREVAIL THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH
LOCALIZED LIFR CEILINGS, AHEAD A LARGE STORM COMPLEX MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY TO IFR AND MVFR
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND
COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR LEVELS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY. RAIN CHANCES START TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
LARGELY DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
RETURN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY TODAY, ALTHOUGH THEY MAY BRIEFLY TURN
NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S STORMS. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT SAT MAY 9 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE WILL ABRUPTLY TURN TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL THEN BE ERRATIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS THE CONVECTION LINGERS BEFORE A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
RESUMES GOING INTO SUNDAY. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW
ON MONDAY PROCEEDING A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TO A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG NORTHERLY MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS
MAY INCREASE TO ADVISORY LEVELS BRIEFLY ON MONDAY NIGHT. A LIGHT
TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TUESDAY MORNING WILL DIMINISH GOING
INTO MIDWEEK. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 79 67 83 68 / 90 40 50 50
PENSACOLA 79 69 81 70 / 80 30 50 50
DESTIN 79 70 80 70 / 80 30 40 40
EVERGREEN 78 63 84 64 / 90 40 60 60
WAYNESBORO 78 64 83 64 / 80 40 50 60
CAMDEN 76 62 82 63 / 90 30 60 60
CRESTVIEW 80 65 85 65 / 90 40 60 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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