930
FXUS64 KMOB 020700
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
200 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 158 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
- NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT ALL AREA
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH WATER LEVELS UP TO 2
FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND DURING EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A WAVE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN GULF WILL
BEGIN TO ENTER THE AREA TODAY VIA SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND A RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. PWATS WILL RISE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES TO AROUND
2.3 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY, LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES. THE GREATEST COVERAGE WILL FOCUS OFFSHORE AND OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING, EXPANDING INLAND FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH POPS AS HIGH AS 60-80% SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84.
LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FLASH FLOOD RISK HAS BEEN OUTLINED BY THE
WPC.
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. AS THE WAVE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE BEGINS TO CONVERGE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
AHEAD OF A STALLED FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
SURGE TO AROUND 2.4-2.5 INCHES, PLACING THEM ABOVE THE 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR EARLY OCTOBER. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND EAST
OF A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS SOME
GUIDANCE IS HINTING, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO CLOSE OFF INTO A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. THIS WOULD POTENTIALLY RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TRAINING CONVECTION OVER THE
AREA, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE DEEPLY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT HIGHLY EFFICIENT WARM-RAIN PROCESSES AND
LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES. THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR REPEATED
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR THE COAST, THROUGH THE TIMING
AND DURATION OF INDIVIDUAL ROUNDS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT
THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS FOR GENERALLY 2-3 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND 3-6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. TOTALS OF 6-9 INCHES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT NEAR THE COAST WHERE TRAINING CONVECTION OCCURS. THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY IN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS. SINCE OUR SOIL CAN GENERALLY TAKE
A LOT OF RAIN BEFORE FLOODING BEGINS GIVEN LACK OF RECENT RAINFALL,
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED. THE WPC MAINTAINS A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND THE ENTIRE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SLOWLY CLEAR THE AREA AND
PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK, GRADUALLY FILTERING IN DRIER AIR AND
REDUCING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MIDWEEK. BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. UNCERTAINTY GROWS
SUBSTANTIALLY GOING INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
ALONG THE COAST, CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING
KING TIDE CYCLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HIGH TIDES, WITH WATER
LEVELS REACHING UP TO AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMALLY DRY GROUND. THE
GREATEST CONCERN FOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALONG NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOBILE BAY AND THE MISSISSIPPI SOUND EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
POSSIBLY EXPANDING TO INCLUDE ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR
SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
MODERATE RISK EARLY NEXT WEEK. JGC/98
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
CURRENTLY THERE IS A LULL IN CONVECTION OVER OUR AREA WITH ONLY
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST, AND THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
THEN INCREASE ALONG THE COAST INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED THE FIRST PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL TAF SITES
TO LATER TIME FROM 02/13Z UNTIL 02/17Z FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND
ANOTHER PROB30 GROUP FOR ALL TAF SITES FROM 02/17Z UNTIL 02/23Z
FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS STABILITY DECREASES. DROPS OF
CIGS/VIS TO MVFR AND EVEN LOCALLY IFR WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS
ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH PERIODIC GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES
INTO SUNDAY. WINDS RELAX BY MONDAY MORNING AND TURN NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS WE GET STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.
SEAS INCREASE TO 3-5 FEET LATE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND WITH
ANOTHER BUMP TO 4-7 FEET POSSIBLE IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE INCREASING WINDS. SS/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 86 72 83 71 / 80 50 90 80
PENSACOLA 85 74 83 73 / 80 60 90 90
DESTIN 84 75 83 74 / 80 50 80 90
EVERGREEN 87 67 85 68 / 70 20 70 80
WAYNESBORO 89 69 84 69 / 60 20 70 70
CAMDEN 89 68 86 69 / 50 20 50 70
CRESTVIEW 85 69 84 69 / 80 30 80 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
ALZ263>265.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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