481
FXUS64 KMOB 071034
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
534 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH NOON TODAY.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 528 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER THE WATCH AREA STILL ON THE WORRISOME SIDE,
HAVE EXTENDED THE WATCH IN CONSULTATION WITH SPC UNTIL 8AM/13Z.
THESE STORMS ARE STILL OPERATING IN MORE UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 10Z ANALYSIS PLACES THE FRONT ALONG AN
EASTERN STONE CO TO EASTERN CHOCTAW/WESTERN CLARKE CO LINE. THE
LATEST SPC ANALYSIS PLACES THIS LINE IN AN AREA OF 1000J/KG
MLCAPES, ALONG WITH 50-60KTS BULK WIND SHEAR AND 100-200 M^S/S^2
0-500MB HELICITIES.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
SYNOPSIS...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY TO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. THIS FRONT
WILL SOON BEGIN TO BE PUSHED SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH NOON TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE
ONE OF OUR FOCUSES FOR THE CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT NORTH OF A LINE FROM WIGGINS, MS TO
ANDALUSIA, AL, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS. LOOKING ALOFT...A SOUTHERN JET
STREAM EXTENDING FROM OKLAHOMA TO NEW ENGLAND WILL GET SHUNTED A
TAD FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD AS A LARGE TROUGH ADVANCES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER REGIONS, PUTTING OUR AREA IN A SLIGHTLY
MORE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY MOVE SOUTH OF THE COAST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
STALLS BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD FROM MID-AFTERNOON
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, A RESURGENCE OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS ADDITIONAL UPPER
IMPULSES TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE BENEFIT THESE NON-SEVERE STORMS
IS THE POTENTIAL OF MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OF 1.5 TO 3 INCHES
TO HELP EASE THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...IN COORDINATION WITH THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER, WE HAVE ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 189 THAT REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING AS THE CURRENT LINE OF EASTWARD MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS CREEPS SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AS THE SURFACE FRONT
STARTS TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA. AMPLE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS ONGOING
WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM 70-75 DEGREES ALREADY IN PLACE. THE
LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS IS SHOWING SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY VALUES
AROUND 1,000 TO 2,000J/KG AND MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY VALUES
AROUND 1,000 TO 1,500J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS CURRENTLY
AROUND 60 TO 65 KNOTS, AND THE MAXIMUM 2-6KM AGL LAPSE RATES ARE
AROUND 7.5C/KM. EFFECTIVE STORM RELATIVE HELICITY VALUES ARE
CURRENTLY AT AROUND 200 TO 325M2/S2. SO, UNDER THESE CONDITIONS WE
ARE ANTICIPATING ALL THREE TYPES OF SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS WITH
DAMAGING GUSTS AND AN ISOLATED RISK FOR MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL AND
TORNADIC ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGH WE EXPECT THE OVERALL THREAT TO SLOWLY
DIMINISH, WITH THIS ENVIRONMENT BEING LARGELY MAINTAINED
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, A LEVEL 2/SLIGHT RISK WILL COVER ALL OF
THE FL PANHANDLE AND FAR SOUTHEAST AL FOR THE UPCOMING DAY 1
OUTLOOK, WITH DAMAGING WINDS DRIVING GREATEST SEVERE THREAT.
A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS MOVES INTO THE AREA BEHIND A STRONGER
COLD FRONT ADVANCING OFF THE COAST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S INTERIOR AREAS AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S NEAR THE COAST. /22
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI TO INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA CONTINUES SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT. IFR CONDITIONS BECOME PREDOMINATE ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR AROUND MIDDAY THURSDAY, THEN VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP DURING LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS 5-15 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SWITCH TO THE
NORTHWEST 5-10 KNOTS AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TO A LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A LIGHT TO
MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT QUICKLY
SHIFTS TO ONSHORE TEMPORARILY OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE A PASSING
SYSTEM BRINGS BACK LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW SUNDAY. /16
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
DAILY RAINFALL, BOTH OVER AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE RISES IN RIVERS. /16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 82 62 76 65 / 80 0 60 70
PENSACOLA 82 65 77 68 / 70 10 40 60
DESTIN 81 66 78 68 / 70 10 30 60
EVERGREEN 81 56 74 58 / 90 0 30 70
WAYNESBORO 78 56 73 60 / 40 0 40 80
CAMDEN 76 55 73 58 / 60 0 20 70
CRESTVIEW 84 60 78 61 / 90 0 30 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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