692  
FXUS64 KMOB 030004  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
604 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2024  
   
..NEW AVIATION
 
 
   
AVIATION
 
 
(00Z TAFS)  
ISSUED AT 604 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2024  
 
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION AT 00Z SUNDAY, BUT EXPECT  
CEILINGS TO QUICKLY DETERIORATE AND LOWER BACK TO IFR TO LIFR  
THRESHOLDS LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY  
SUNDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH  
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, AND ALSO AGAIN REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO  
IFR TO VLIFR THRESHOLDS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT  
AND VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT, THE LIGHT EAST TO  
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY. DS/12  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 411 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2024/  
   
.NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
 
 
NEAR TERM...  
(NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 411 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2024  
 
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRAVERSING THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST  
REGION THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM  
THE NORTHERN GULF INTO COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE.  
MUCH OF THE REGION REMAINS CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH VISIBLE  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER A FEW  
LOCATIONS.  
 
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF OUR REGION LATER THIS  
EVENING/TONIGHT LEAVING A WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IN PLACE OVER  
OUR CWA. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES DIFFUSE TONIGHT WITH  
SURFACE FLOW TURNING LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN  
FRINGE OF A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE  
APPALACHIANS AND THE EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST. RH QUICKLY  
APPROACHES SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE TONIGHT WITH WEAK WARM  
ADVECTION ALSO AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG  
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE  
HAVE ISSUED ANOTHER DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MS,  
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AL, AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE FOR THE  
POTENTIAL OF VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. FOG  
SHOULD LIFT BY MID-SUNDAY MORNING WITH A VERY WARM DAY OTHERWISE  
ANTICIPATED AS CLOUDS BREAK GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD  
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER MOST AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-  
10 AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND  
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR AREAS SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT, BUT MOST  
PLACES WILL PROBABLY REMAIN DRY. /21  
 
SHORT TERM...  
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 411 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2024  
 
DIFFLUENT FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ON MONDAY AS WEAK SHORTWAVE  
RIDGING LINGERS OFF TO OUR EAST AND A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM  
THE WEST. DOWN AT THE SURFACE, SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW  
PERSISTS AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS POSITIONED OVER THE  
APPALACHIANS. ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MOISTURE AND  
WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED  
TO WARM INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S NEAR  
THE COAST. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE AS THE  
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND A FEW STORMS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND  
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL  
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OVER THE  
LOCAL AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED  
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH  
MOVES OVERHEAD A A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME OF  
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE  
LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER COASTAL LOUISIANA ALONG THE BOUNDARY ON  
TUESDAY MORNING WITH IT PROGRESSING EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD  
ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING  
INTO THE AREA, ONGOING STORMS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER  
VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING MAY START TO EXHIBIT SOME STORM  
ORGANIZATION DUE TO DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 35-45  
KNOTS ACROSS THAT AREA. A LIMITING FACTOR, HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY  
BE INSTABILITY AS IT CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE RATHER MEAGER WITH  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING A DEEPLY A SATURATED PROFILE. THIS  
DEEPLY SATURATED PROFILE WILL LIKELY KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK  
LOW, BUT IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO ORGANIZE AND INSTABILITY  
MATERIALIZES, THEN WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE  
STORMS. WE WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE HEAVY RAIN  
POTENTIAL GIVEN THE HIGHLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT. IF CONVECTION  
REPEATEDLY MOVES OVER THE SAME AREAS, THEN THERE COULD BE SOME  
LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF FLOODING CONCERNS. RAIN CHANCES WILL  
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH THE AREA. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE UPPER 50S AND  
LOWER 60S. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN BOTH  
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS GIVEN THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND  
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT. /14  
 
LONG TERM...  
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 411 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2024  
 
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RETURNS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE  
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL WINDS  
WILL THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH  
PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY  
ON SATURDAY. DOWN AT THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PUSHED  
THROUGH THE AREA AND STALLED JUST OFFSHORE DURING THE SHORT TERM  
PERIOD SURGES NORTHWARD LATE THURSDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE  
ADVANCING WARM FRONT AND THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL  
ALLOW FOR RICH, DEEP MOISTURE TO ADVECT BACK INTO THE REGION,  
ESPECIALLY AS WE GET INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A SURFACE LOW  
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE  
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT APPROACHING  
THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH STILL QUITE FAR OUT IN  
TIME, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE DEEP  
MOISTURE AND FORCING INDUCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE  
APPROACHING FRONT AT THE SURFACE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN INCREASE  
IN RAIN CHANCES BY FRIDAY. WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS  
OVER THE COMING DAYS AS LONG RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT  
STRONG SHEAR MAY BE PRESENT, ALONG WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND  
A LLJ, WHICH COULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO A SEVERE RISK. GIVEN IT IS  
STILL MANY DAYS OUT, IT IS JUST SOMETHING TO WATCH AND WE WILL  
IRON OUT THE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL  
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. /96/14  
 
MARINE...  
ISSUED AT 411 PM CST SAT MAR 2 2024  
 
AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER AREA BAYS, SOUNDS, AND NEAR  
SHORE WATERS TONIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THESE  
MARINE ZONES FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WELL OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT STRETCHING  
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED TO THE  
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS. THIS BOUNDARY WEAKENS  
OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMING  
ESTABLISHED LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. /21  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 59 75 60 76 62 70 59 77 / 10 10 0 30 70 90 30 10  
PENSACOLA 62 75 61 72 63 70 61 75 / 10 10 0 10 50 90 40 10  
DESTIN 61 72 61 72 63 70 63 75 / 20 10 0 10 40 90 50 20  
EVERGREEN 57 78 57 78 59 71 58 77 / 10 20 0 20 50 90 50 10  
WAYNESBORO 57 77 58 77 60 72 56 76 / 0 20 0 30 70 80 20 10  
CAMDEN 57 78 57 77 59 70 58 74 / 0 20 0 20 50 90 40 10  
CRESTVIEW 58 78 57 78 59 71 58 78 / 20 20 10 10 40 90 50 20  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR  
ALZ051>060-261>266.  
 
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR  
FLZ201>206.  
 
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY FOR  
MSZ067-075-076-078-079.  
 
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ630>636-650-655.  
 

 
 

 
 
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