241
FXUS64 KMOB 180551
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1251 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL EXACERBATE WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DENSE, IS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS MAY CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL
CRAFT MAINLY FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...
THROUGH MONDAY, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS
SHIFTS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS/GULF
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE.
AHEAD OF THE COMING FRONT, THE AIRMASS REMAINS ON THE DRIER SIDE,
WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 LEVELS <=1.0" THROUGH TODAY. THEY THEN
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5" AS THE FRONT PASSES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS (MLCAPES IN
THE 300-500J/KG RANGE). ANY UPPER SUPPORT IS MODEST AT BEST, ALONG
WITH BULK WIND SHEAR (<=25KTS), SO AM EXPECTING ANY STRONG STORMS TO
BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. ALSO, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
HIGHEST WEST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER. EVEN SO, NO DRASTIC CHANGES TO
DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED. BY MONDAY
NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFT TO OFF THE EAST COAST.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD ARE ON A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER
RIDE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY, THEN DROPPING TO THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR
SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MONDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED
BACK TO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80. LOW TEMPERATURES SEE THE SAME
VALLEY, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO AROUND 60
SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN DROPPING INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 SUNDAY
NIGHT, THEN RISING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OVER THE PLAINS,
THE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ROUGH PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEAST MID WEEK, BUT WITH
MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURN AS ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS TUESDAY, POPS
REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISE BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
ONSHORE FLOW SHIFTS TO OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY, KEEPING THE RIP RISK LOW
INTO THE COMING WEEK. THE RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW MID WEEK WILL BRING
BACK INCREASED SWELL TO AREA BEACHES AND A RISE IN THE RIP CURRENT
RISK TO MODERATE TO HIGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
THE CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS WILL SEE LOCAL DROPS TO IFR OR EVEN
LOCALLY LIFR IN FAVORED LOCALITIES OVERNIGHT. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNS SOON AFTER SUNRISE. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL START
MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST, WITH A
SHIFT IN WINDS FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY AHEAD.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
LIGHT ONSHORE CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING THEN SHIFTS
WESTERLY BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE WILL OCCUR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT TO
MODERATE EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO MIDWEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
LOOKING AT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND DRY FUELS, A MODERATE RISK OF A SIGNIFICANT
FIRE POTENTIAL IS IN EFFECT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK. ALSO, A FIRE
ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALABAMA. MOST OF THE INGREDIENTS FOR A RED
FLAG WATCH/WARNING ARE PRESENT, BUT NOT ALL. WILL LET DAY SHIFT
COORDINATE WITH RELEVANT FIRE WEATHER FOLKS ON ANY WWAS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 53 72 50 80 / 50 30 0 0
PENSACOLA 58 72 54 78 / 20 20 0 0
DESTIN 61 73 54 78 / 10 20 0 0
EVERGREEN 50 72 43 80 / 50 20 0 0
WAYNESBORO 49 72 45 78 / 70 20 0 0
CAMDEN 49 69 44 78 / 60 20 0 0
CRESTVIEW 56 73 46 81 / 20 20 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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