729
FXUS64 KMOB 250522
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1222 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW MAY RETURN THIS COMING
WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE MARINE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST, DEFLECTING ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A MODERATE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SET OF
SHORTWAVES PASSING THE SOUTHEAST. A SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPS AND
BUILDS WEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE COMING SURFACE FRONT. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN MODEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEK,
AVERAGING 1.1"-1.3" OVER AND NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE STILL WEAK COMBINED WITH A BIT OF PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
POPS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW. THE REST OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RAIN FREE, WITH THE ADVANCING UPPER RIDGE SUPPRESSING ANY
PRECIPITATION INTO THE WEEKEND, INCLUDING WITH THE COMING FRONT.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT THE
UPPER RIDGE EAST OVER THE WEEKEND, TO OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, WELL ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WEDNESDAY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY
FRIDAY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE COMING FRONT WILL DROP
HIGH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO, BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR THE
WEEKEND. MID 70S TO AROUND 80 ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK UP TO THE AROUND 80 TO LOW 80S BY TUESDAY IN
THE COMING WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES SEE THE SAME RISE/FALL/RISE,
RISING TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL DROP LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM THERE, LOW TEMPERATURES SLOW RISE INTO THE MID
50S TO AROUND 60 BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS WEAK BUT SEMI-ORGANIZED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, KEEPING THE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
LOW. POST FROPA, MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AS THE OFFSHORE
FLOW SHIFTS TO EASTERLY, BRINGING A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS BY SUNDAY.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY GIVES WAY TO MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BY DAYBREAK
THIS MORNING. CEILINGS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR AND VFR BY LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE JUST OUTSIDE THE TAF
PERIOD, ANOTHER IFR CEILING WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO SETTLE IN LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY RELAXED
THROUGH DAYBREAK LESS THAN 5 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST, INCREASING TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS AND SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING MID WEEK WILL
LAST INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE A PASSING COLD FRONT BRING MODERATE TO
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE COMING WEEKEND. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
/16
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VERY DRY FUELS AND A LACK OF RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASED RISK OF WILDFIRES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK. 20FT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO LIMIT THE NEED FOR ANY
RFWS. THE WILD CARD IS A SEABREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST, AND
MOVING INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLY CAUSING ISSUES OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 78 61 81 60 / 10 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 73 61 77 62 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 71 61 74 62 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 78 54 84 57 / 10 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 82 59 84 60 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN 78 56 83 59 / 10 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 78 54 83 57 / 10 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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