406
FXUS64 KMOB 262030
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
330 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
- DANGEROUS HEAT STRESS CONTINUES TO WORSEN INTO MIDWEEK. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND AN
EXTREME HEAT WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR COASTAL AREAS ON
TUESDAY.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN MIDWEEK FOR
OUR FLORIDA BEACHES.
- DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASE IN THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, BUT IT WILL
STILL REMAIN HOT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
A LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL U.S.
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK AS WELL AS THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. PREVIOUS MODELS WERE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY, BUT THAT IS NO LONGER THE CASE AS A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA LATE TONIGHT
REINFORCES THE TROUGH THROUGH MIDWEEK INTO THURSDAY. AS A RESULT,
THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR WEST STRUGGLES TO BUILD BACK INTO OUR
REGION, BUT SHOULD REACH WESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
ON TUESDAY BEFORE RETREATING BACK WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT TONIGHT BETWEEN A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND A SURFACE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD SHOULD BRING PERIODS
OF MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS TO OUR GULF WATERS AND ALONG THE COAST
TONIGHT INTO MIDWEEK.
HEAT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOR APPARENT TEMPERATURES (HEAT INDICES) UP TO 110 DEGREES
ON MONDAY AND UP TO 112 DEGREES ON TUESDAY. IN ADDITION, WE HAVE
ISSUED AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH FOR OUR COASTAL FOR TUESDAY FOR
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES UP
TO 115 POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE NO OVERNIGHT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT
AS LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
INCREASING TO 7-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED ON WEDNESDAY.
WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR OR AT LEAST TIE
RECORD HIGHS. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES (AND
DATES) FOR THE MOBILE AND PENSACOLA AREAS ALONG WITH OUR LATEST
FORECAST:
MONDAY, JULY 27
MOBILE RECORD HIGH: 99 (1968) / FORECAST: 97
PENSACOLA RECORD HIGH: 98 (1970) / FORECAST: 98
TUESDAY, JULY 28
MOBILE RECORD HIGH: 100 (1968) / FORECAST: 100
PENSACOLA RECORD HIGH: 98 (1993) / FORECAST: 99
WEDNESDAY, JULY 29
MOBILE RECORD HIGH: 100 (1877) / FORECAST: 98
PENSACOLA RECORD HIGH: 100 (1986) / FORECAST: 97
THERE IS A 20-40% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY EAST OF THE
TOMBIGBEE RIVER FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT AS
CONVECTION ATTEMPTS TO OVERCOME A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED
AROUND 700 MB. OCCASIONAL STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS MIXED
LAYER INSTABILITY VALUES APPROACH 2500-3000 J/KG. DRY CONDITIONS
FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG A SEA-BREEZE. WEDNESDAY IS STARTING TO LOOK INTERESTING WITH
REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AS STORMS RAPIDLY DEVELOP
AROUND MID AFTERNOON AS THE RIDGE MOVES WESTWARD, RESULTING IN
WEAKNESS ALOFT. WE ARE ALSO ANTICIPATING UPPER DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND
MIXED LAYER INSTABILITY VALUES APPROACHING 3000-4000 J/KG. IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT COULD BE, BUT THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL
OF DAMAGING SURFACE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION IN THE COMING DAYS. /22
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL SEE A SHIFT IN AFTERNOON
WINDS TO MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SEABREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COAST AND MOVES INLAND.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE GULF TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY FOR WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS. A DIURNAL WIND PATTERN IS
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW EARLY EACH MORNING TURNING WESTERLY TO OCCASIONALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SOLID A LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 77 97 77 100 / 0 10 10 10
PENSACOLA 79 98 80 99 / 10 10 20 10
DESTIN 81 94 81 95 / 10 30 20 10
EVERGREEN 75 96 75 98 / 10 20 20 10
WAYNESBORO 76 99 76 100 / 10 10 10 0
CAMDEN 76 95 76 98 / 0 30 20 0
CRESTVIEW 76 99 77 99 / 10 40 20 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ALZ051>053-055-
056-059-060-261>266.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALZ051>060-261-
262.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR ALZ263>266.
FL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR FLZ201>206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...NONE.
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