033
FXUS64 KMOB 050100
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
800 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 758 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, POTENTIALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT INDICES WILL TREND UPWARD THROUGH MID WEEK, REACHING
AROUND 100-107 DEGREES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 758 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
NO UPDATES REQUIRED IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, AS EVERYTHING
REMAINS ON TRACK. WILL DIVE DEEPER WITH A FULL FORECAST UPDATE
HERE LATER THIS EVENING. KLG
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
THROUGH FRIDAY...A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST OPENS AND
MOVES OFF AS UPPER HIGHS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND OFF THE EAST
COAST BUILD EAST/WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST,
LEAVING A WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A WEAKLY ORGANIZED SURFACE
LOW OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEAST OPENS AND MOVES OFF WITH
THE UPPER DYNAMICS. A SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS NORTH AND BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST FROM THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE, RESTORING ONSHORE FLOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. A DRIER AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES AROUND 1.5",
WITH THE DRIER AIR BEING ABOVE 700MB) THAT HAS PUSHED OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE SOUTHEAST SEES ALTERNATE BANDS OF DRIER AND
MOISTER AIR MOVING OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AN UPTICK IN POPS COMES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THOUGH A DOWNWARD
TREND OCCURS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER SUBSIDENCE INCREASES
WITH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. THE DRIER AIR ABOVE SURFACE MAY
ENHANCE ANY STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT FOR STRONGER STORMS EACH DAY (MLCAPES
OF 1500-2000J/KG), THOUGH ANY ORGANIZING SHEAR IS LIMITED. SOUNDINGS
SHOW DCAPES RISING ABOVE 1000J/KG EACH AFTERNOON, ENOUGH FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY REMAIN AT
OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WITH HIGHER TEMPERATURES OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER
RIDGE) RISING ABOVE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
EXPECTED EACH DAY, AROUND 90 ALONG THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE AROUND 70 TO LOW 70S TONIGHT (MID 70S ALONG THE COAST) RISE TO
THE LOW TO LOW TO MID 70S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT (UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST). HEAT INDICES IN THE 95-101 DEGREE RANGE TODAY RISE INTO
THE 100 TO 107 DEGREE RANGE BY THURSDAY, THOUGH WITH THE
INCONSISTENT MOISTURE HANDLING THIS MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT ON, THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE EAST COAST BECOMES DOMINANT
AND EXPANDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. MOISTURE LEVELS
RISE BACK OVER 2". RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE, THOUGH THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE WILL HELP TO TEMPER THE
POPS, TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. TEMPERATURES REMAIN A BIT ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY IN THE 100-107 DEGREE RANGE.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, THE LOW RISK
TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, A MORE ORGANIZED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE THE RIP RISK TO AN UPPER LOW TO MODERATE
IN THE COMING WEEKEND, WITH OUR FLORIDA BEACHES SEEING THE BETTER
CHANCE OF A MODERATE RISK.
/16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR AN INCREASE IN SCT TSRA/SHRA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SEABREEZE
BOUNDARY. ANY INDIVIDUAL SHOWER/STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIED GUSTY, ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS, TEMPOARARY
FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS BY REDUCED VIS/CIGS, BUT EXPECT VFR
OUTSIDE OF ANY SCT TSRA/SHRA ACTIVITY. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 150 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
GENERAL WESTERLY FLOW OVER AREA WATERS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE WEEK. NEAR THE COAST, A NIGHT-TIME OFFSHORE,
AFTERNOON/ EVENING ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL PROVIDE A MORE DIURNALLY
VARIABLE FLOW TO AREA WATERS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 93 73 92 / 0 30 0 30
PENSACOLA 77 93 77 90 / 0 20 10 20
DESTIN 78 89 78 89 / 0 10 10 20
EVERGREEN 70 92 71 93 / 0 20 10 30
WAYNESBORO 71 96 73 95 / 0 0 0 20
CAMDEN 71 91 73 91 / 0 10 0 30
CRESTVIEW 71 93 71 93 / 0 30 10 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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