992
FXUS64 KMOB 031808
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
108 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
- A FEW WATERSPOUTS POSSIBLE OVER THE MARINE AREA DURING LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
- HEAT INDICES CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 100 TO 107 RANGE INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
03.12Z UPPER AIR MAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED LOW TO MID
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AXIS CENTERED FROM THE TN/OH RIVER
VALLEYS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE LOCAL AREA IS HOWEVER ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE WHERE THERE IS A PATH FOR MID
LEVEL IMPULSES CAUGHT UP IN THE EASTERLIES TO MAKE WEST NORTHWEST
PASSAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA IN THE NEAR-TERM WHICH WOULD
PROVIDE A CONTRIBUTION TO ASCENT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AN ASSESSMENT OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SHOWS AREAS
PRIMARILY EAST OF I-65 IN LOWER PWAT VALUES (RANGING 1.3 TO 1.5")
WHILE AREAS WEST OF I-65 REFLECT BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES (PWAT'S
1.6 TO 1.8"). SURFACE WIND FIELD IS VERY WEAK AND HIGHLY VARIABLE
IN DIRECTION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NON-EXISTENT. APPEARS THE BETTER
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS WOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST, UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MS FOCUSED ALONG A
WEAKLY DEFINED SURFACE TROF/SEA-BREEZE. AT THIS TIME, THE RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW WITH A GENERAL STORM OUTLOOK BY THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM HERE AND
THERE WITH BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY, SHORT DURATION RAINFALL. THE UPPER RIDGE TO OUR
NORTH BEGINS TO WEAKEN HEADING INTO THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WHILE AT THE SAME TIME SHIFTING EASTWARD TO OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S COAST. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A MID-LEVEL
TROF/WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD SETS UP OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY SATURDAY AND CONTINUES IN
PLACE SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO HOLD AT LEAST INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SUGGESTS A TRANSITION TO A MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WITH RAIN CHANCES TRENDING UP AS DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE SHOWS RECOVERY, REACHING 1.9-2.1" BY SUNDAY WHICH LOOKS
TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY, FORECASTERS ANTICIPATE A
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTIVE MODE WITH ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MOSTLY SOUTH OF
U.S. HWY 84, AND FOCUSED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND RESULTANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A SUMMERTIME DIURNAL
PATTERN IN RAIN CHANCES WITH THE HIGHER POPS LOOKING TO BE
EVOLVING OVER THE LAND AREAS EACH DAY, LOWERING AT NIGHT. THE
BETTER POPS FLIPPING TO COASTAL WATERS AT NIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE IN DAILY HIGHS/LOWS. 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND HIGHS RANGE
91 TO 96 INTERIOR, 89 TO 93 COAST. GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, HIGHS LOOK
TO BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES, IN THE LOWER
HALF OF THE 90'S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD 73 TO 77
INTERIOR. MUCH MORE MUGGY ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST/BEACHES WITH
LOWS RANGING 78 TO PERHAPS AROUND 81 IN SPOTS. HEAT INDEX VALUES
CONTINUE TO BE JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 108-112,
WITH MAXIMUM VALUES OF 100-107 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS A MORE DOMINANT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW SETS UP
EACH DAY, THE INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED MOISTURE/DEWPOINTS MAY
PUT HEAT INDICES ABOVE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AT SOME POINT MIDDLE
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. /10
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT UPON MESOSCALE
PROCESSES WHICH ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT IN PATTERNS WITH VERY WEAK
SHEAR WHICH EXIST TODAY. INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN THE
CONTINUED WEAK EASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED STORMS LATE THIS MORNING ALONG BOTH APPARENT CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY NEAR THE
COAST. THE VERY WEAK SHEAR WILL RESULT IN ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOST LIKELY DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE COLD POOLS WHICH
WILL SUPPORT THESE BOUNDARIES SPREADING OUT AWAY FROM STORMS IN ALL
DIRECTIONS DRIVEN STRICTLY BY STORM OUTFLOWS. THIS MAKES PINPOINTING
AREAS OF HIGHEST STORM POTENTIAL IMPACTS AT SINGLE TAF POINTS
DIFFICULT BEYOND THE VERY NEAR TERM PERIOD. THEREFORE HAVE ATTEMPTED
TO IDENTIFY THE MOSTLY LIKELY TAF LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPOS AND THEN COVERED THE REMAINDER OF THE
POTENTIAL WITH PROB30. IT APPEARS THAT IN THE VERY NEAR TERM, THE
MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO BE IMPACTED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS WILL BE AT KBFM AS A
COLLAPSING STORM NEAR SPANISH FORT/DAPHNE SENDS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
WEST INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHICH COULD FAVOR NEW STORM
INITIATION. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORM.
AT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AWAY FROM ANY STORM OUTFLOWS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
LOW END SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS TO MVFR.
ANY STORMS THAT REMAIN EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING. WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION AGAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST
AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH THE OFFSHORE LAND BREEZE AND
INCREASING POTENTIAL FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. /JLH
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS, WAVES AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MAY SEE SOME WATERSPOUT ACTIVITY
DURING LATE NIGHT/MORNING SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST AND AREA BAYS/SOUNDS. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 95 75 93 / 0 20 0 30
PENSACOLA 79 95 79 93 / 0 10 0 20
DESTIN 80 93 80 91 / 0 10 10 10
EVERGREEN 73 95 73 94 / 0 20 10 50
WAYNESBORO 75 96 75 94 / 10 10 10 70
CAMDEN 75 93 75 91 / 0 10 10 60
CRESTVIEW 74 97 74 94 / 0 30 10 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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