600
FXUS64 KMOB 300604
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
104 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND
- HEAT INDICES RISE TO AROUND 100 THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. AS IT PUSHES
OFF TO THE EAST, A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP ALOFT
AS OUR REGION BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, AND A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHEAST US. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO, IT WILL ALLOW
FOR A COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) PATTERN TO SETUP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
US. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A WEAK 'BACKDOOR COLD FRONT' INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LINGER IN PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. A SECONDARY PUSH
MAY COME BY WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
APPALACHIANS, POSSIBLY HELPING TO SHOVE THE STALLED BOUNDARY
OFFSHORE.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THIS WEEKEND AS DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS IN PLACE, WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE
WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT, AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION OCCURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS THANKS TO DIURNAL HEATING. FOR TODAY, AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS JUST TO OUR WEST, SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES MAY HELP TO KEEP
STORM COVERAGE RATHER SPOTTY IN NATURE. BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
BE OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DUE TO BEING
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WETTEST DAY OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA AND THE RIDGE RETREATS INTO THE GULF. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RESIDE OVER INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT, WHICH WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG. ALTHOUGH OVERALL SEVERE PROBABILITIES
REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, STORMS THAT MANAGE TO CLUSTER TOGETHER
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. WE WILL
ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ON SUNDAY.
PWATS SITTING AT AROUND THE 2 INCH MARK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STORMS
BEING EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. ADDITIONALLY, STORMS MAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS AS WINDS ALOFT WILL
LIKELY BE ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THEREFORE, CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS TRAIN OVER AREAS WHICH HAVE SEEN ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO.
AFTERNOON SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, AS
WE TRANSITION TO MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN. HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY OCCUR WHEREVER THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
RESIDES (LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA). WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ALOFT, WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR UPSTREAM FOR ANY STORM COMPLEXES THAT MAY TRY TO ENTER THE
AREA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN CHANCES LOWERS FOR MIDWEEK AS THE
SECONDARY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TRIES TO PUSH IN. IF THE BOUNDARY IS
ABLE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, SOME DRIER AIR WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE
IN, LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON THE OTHER
HAND, IF THE FRONT STALLS OVERHEAD LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE DID, THEN
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN TOWARDS THE STALLED FRONT
SCENARIO
HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS THE AREA. FACTORING IN THE HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY
REACH THE 98-103 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS. HIGHS MAY LOWER BACK
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MIDWEEK. LOWS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. DEPENDING ON THE SECOND FRONT, LOWS MAY
LOWER INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MIDWEEK. ADDITIONALLY, WITH
SATURATED BOUNDARY-LAYER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS, CANNOT RULE OUT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, PARTICULARLY OVER INLAND COUNTIES. A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE WEEKEND. A
LOW RISK SHOULD RETURN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. /96
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1247 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS BEFORE IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA. CLOSER TO THE COAST,
CEILINGS MAY DROP AS LOW AS MVFR, BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE MVFR CATEGORY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA-WIDE BY MID-
MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY IN THE
MORNING AND INCREASE TO 7-12 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
WITH A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THEN AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY.
/29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 89 73 91 73 / 30 10 50 20
PENSACOLA 88 75 88 74 / 30 10 50 30
DESTIN 85 75 86 74 / 30 20 50 40
EVERGREEN 87 71 89 70 / 60 20 60 20
WAYNESBORO 87 71 90 70 / 40 20 50 20
CAMDEN 84 70 86 68 / 70 20 60 20
CRESTVIEW 89 71 90 70 / 50 20 70 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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