309
FXUS64 KMOB 071147
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
647 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 637 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
- TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND IS FORECAST
TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY.
- INCREASING CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA DUE
TO ISAIAS INCLUDING HIGH WINDS, HIGH SURF, RIP CURRENTS, STORM
SURGE, FLASH FLOODING, AND TORNADOES.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
TROPICAL DEPRESSION #9 STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS
OVERNIGHT. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS ISAIAS
EVENTUALLY TURNS NORTH AND MAKES LANDFALL AS A HURRICANE SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. WE HAVE INCREASING CONCERN FOR
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AS IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT ISAIAS WILL
BE A SIGNIFICANT HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE COASTLINE LATE THIS
WEEK. NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE. ENSURE YOUR PREPAREDNESS KIT IS
WELL STOCKED, FILL UP OR CHARGE YOUR VEHICLES, AND CHECK ON YOUR
NEIGHBORS. 07/MB
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
THE MAIN CONCERN DURING MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST ON FRIDAY AS A HURRICANE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE
COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. PER THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, THE
FORECAST CONE FOR TD NINE EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
TO ROUGHLY NEAR DESTIN, FLORIDA, WITH A LANDFALL ANTICIPATED
FRIDAY NIGHT. REGARDLESS OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS WITHIN THE
FORECAST CONE, THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND AND SURGE IMPACTS DEPENDING
ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. SURF HEIGHT VALUES BUILD
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SURF HEIGHTS OF
10+ FEET FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING. FOR
FRIDAY, WPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF FLASH FLOODING OVER INTERIOR
AREAS AND A SLIGHT RISK ELSEWHERE, THEN A SLIGHT RISK FOLLOWS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA ON SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES TO DEVELOP, MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY THOUGH
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM
NWS MOBILE AND FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. RAIN CHANCES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CHANCE, THEN DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR
TUESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. GUSTS UP
TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY. SEAS INCREASE TO 4 TO 8 FEET CREATING ROUGH CONDITIONS
OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL WORSEN LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO TROPICAL
STORM ISAIAS, WHICH WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATE IN
THE WEEK AS A HURRICANE. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 86 66 85 65 / 0 0 0 20
PENSACOLA 84 70 84 69 / 0 0 10 50
DESTIN 84 70 84 70 / 10 0 10 50
EVERGREEN 88 60 87 61 / 0 0 0 20
WAYNESBORO 87 61 87 61 / 0 0 0 10
CAMDEN 87 58 87 59 / 0 0 0 10
CRESTVIEW 84 63 83 63 / 0 0 0 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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