561
FXUS64 KMOB 072141
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
233 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES BECOMING MODERATE
MONDAY.
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN, LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.
- HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WITH RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO OUR EASTERNMOST COUNTIES. TO
OUR WEST, A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WAS PRODUCING
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF THESE TWO FEATURES,
WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL KEEP A STEADY STREAM
OF MOISTURE FILTERING INTO THE AREA. COMBINED WITH WEAKNESSES
LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD, WILL KEEP SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON.
AS FAR AS IMPACTS GO, THE HIGHER CHANCES AND AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF US-85, WHERE VERY LITTLE RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY. THESE AREAS HAVE SEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL THE
LAST WEEK OR SO, AND SOILS HAVE DRIED ENOUGH THAT OUR FORECAST
RAINFALL TOTALS SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IN OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. AREAS SOUTH OF US-84 EXPERIENCED MORE RAINFALL
YESTERDAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO GET LESS TODAY. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE
OUR HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS WILL FALL IN AREAS WHERE THE GROUND CAN
HANDLE IT WITHOUT MUCH RUNOFF. THAT SAID, GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS IN
PLACE, IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR MOVE
OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, WE MAY HAVE SOME FLOODING CONCERNS LATER IN
THE DAY. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A LIKELY SCENARIO; HOWEVER, IT IS
ONE WE ARE MONITORING GIVEN MAY'S RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH TO OUR WEST SWINGS INTO THE OHIO AND TN VALLEYS. MEANWHILE,
RIDGING WILL BUILD NORTHWARD AND LINGER THROUGH THE WORKWEEK. THE
TROUGH WILL STALL TO OUR NORTH AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED
STORMS TO SNEAK INTO OUR NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES; BUT NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE. OTHERWISE, WE EXPECT THE UPPER RIDGING TO
PROVIDE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. UNFORTUNATELY, THAT ALSO MEANS HEAT BUILD
INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 90S BY TUESDAY, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S. /73
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH
REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS.
BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE, THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN AT KMOB AND KBFM, BUT EVEN THEN THE
POTENTIAL IS LOW. ANY ACTIVITY THAT DOES HOLD TOGETHER WILL
QUICKLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, THE EXCEPTION BEING
KPNS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. /73
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW TODAY BECOMES
SOUTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW ON
TUESDAY RETURNS TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
/73
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 73 87 71 90 / 10 10 0 0
PENSACOLA 75 87 75 90 / 10 10 0 0
DESTIN 75 87 75 89 / 0 10 0 0
EVERGREEN 70 89 71 91 / 30 10 10 10
WAYNESBORO 72 86 70 91 / 40 20 20 0
CAMDEN 70 85 71 89 / 40 10 20 10
CRESTVIEW 70 91 72 92 / 10 10 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page