100
FXUS64 KMOB 230729
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
229 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
- MODERATE TO EXTREME DROUGHT ALONG WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE FOR
RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY EXACERBATE
WILDFIRE ACTIVITY.
- A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW MAY RETURN THIS COMING
WEEKEND FOR MOST OF THE MARINE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN MAR 22 2026
AN UPPER TROF PROGRESSES ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT, AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
MEANWHILE BRINGS A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY, PAUSING BRIEFLY NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE CONTINUING OFFSHORE MONDAY EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PROGRESS ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST AS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTH CENTRAL STATES. MOISTURE REMAINS TOO SHALLOW IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS TO SUPPORT POPS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH
IMPROVEMENT FOLLOWS THEREAFTER AS THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
APPROACH THE AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, DEEP LAYER MOISTURE LOOKS
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT GENERALLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AS THE SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH. SOME SPOTTY CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE IN THIS PORTION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT THE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT BETTER
OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.
DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SPREADS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES THEN AN UPPER TROF PROGRESSES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES, WITH THE RESULTING PATTERN BRINGING IN
VERY DRY DEEP LAYER AIR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON MONDAY, THEN RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS TREND TO MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S BY FRIDAY, THEN COOLER VALUES MOSTLY IN THE 70S FOLLOW FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. LOWS THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT TEND TO BE IN THE 50S TO OCCASIONALLY THE LOWER 60S,
THEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY GENERALLY PREVAILS THIS EVENING, WITH SOME
ISOLATED PATCHES OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS POTENTIALLY REDUCING
FLIGHT CATEGORY LOCALLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY RETURNS AREAWIDE AFTER DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH DAYBREAK LESS THAN
5 KNOTS, TURNING MORE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE DAY AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 227 AM CDT MON MAR 23 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES EARLY
THIS WEEK, BECOMING A LIGHT EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW MID TO LATE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND BRINGING A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW TO MOST MARINE
WATERS. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 83 58 80 59 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 81 60 76 61 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 75 60 74 58 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 84 50 78 53 / 0 0 10 20
WAYNESBORO 81 54 78 57 / 10 0 0 10
CAMDEN 79 51 75 56 / 10 0 10 20
CRESTVIEW 84 54 79 54 / 0 0 10 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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