835
FXUS64 KMOB 291752
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1252 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
- MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.
- HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR COASTAL ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- HEAT INDICES RISE TO AROUND 100 THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AND IS ABSORBED INTO A LARGER SYSTEM WHICH MOVES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST STATES AND BECOMES ORIENTED GENERALLY JUST OFF THE
EAST COAST. THE UPPER TROF THEN BECOMES ORIENTED OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR EASTERN STATES BY MONDAY, AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE
MEANWHILE GRADUALLY BUILDS NEAR/ALONG THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN RETREATS TO OVER THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
INTERIOR AREAS TONIGHT, AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND SLOWLY
MOVES INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE WEAK BOUNDARY MOVES TO NEAR THE COAST ON SUNDAY AND REMAINS
NEAR THIS POSITION INTO MONDAY. ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TENDS
TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES, THEN DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK INTO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY. HAVE GONE WITH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THEN WILL HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. SOIL
CONDITIONS ARE SATURATED OR NEARLY SO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, SO
WHILE ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE 0.5 INCHES OR LESS
THROUGH SUNDAY, WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT THEN A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW RESUMES ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY
AS A SURFACE RIDGE BECOMES ORIENTED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THE EASTERN STATES UPPER TROF MOVES OFF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS BUILDING
INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES. SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
CONTINUE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THEN MAINLY CHANCE POPS FOLLOW
FOR THURSDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOLLOWS FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. /29
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXCEPT FOR
DROPS TO MVFR WITHIN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, VFR PREVAILS AND WINDS STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH LOW
TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. PROBABILITIES OF PATCHY FOG PRODUCING MVFR VISIBILITIES
ARE LOW, BUT MVFR CEILINGS COULD PREVAIL FOR MAINLY INTERIOR
COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. BY MID MORNING VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE AREA WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT 8-12 KNOTS. /SS
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT
WITH A WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THEN AN EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ON WEDNESDAY.
/29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 89 73 91 / 10 40 10 50
PENSACOLA 75 87 75 89 / 20 30 20 50
DESTIN 75 85 76 87 / 30 30 20 40
EVERGREEN 71 88 71 90 / 30 60 20 50
WAYNESBORO 70 88 71 91 / 40 40 0 50
CAMDEN 70 86 71 89 / 40 70 20 50
CRESTVIEW 71 89 71 91 / 20 50 20 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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