419
FXUS64 KMOB 070537
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1237 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE
COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES BECOMING MODERATE
SUNDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ELEVATED THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS.
- HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
THROUGH TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES AROUND THE
TOP OF AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GULF THROUGH SUNDAY. A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS SWINGS AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
SAME UPPER RIDGE, EVENTUALLY CONNECTING WITH MORE ENERGY OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS. THIS DIGS AN DEEP UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE WEST TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
A DRIER AIRMASS (PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES DROPPING TO 1.5"-1.7")
MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA, REPLACING THE CURRENT SOUPY AIRMASS
(WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES IN THE 2.2"-2.4" RANGE). WITH A BIT OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AROUND LATE TONIGHT AND MORE PASSING DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY, A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS, MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY, MAINLY WEST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER.
THIS ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE IN THE
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH SPREADING FARTHER EAST. INSTABILITY IS
DECENT, WITH SBCAPES RISING INTO THE 1500-200J/KG RANGE IN THE
AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH THE SOUPY AIRMASS BRINGING EFFICIENT
RAINERS, WATER ISSUES MAY AGAIN BE A PROBLEM SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IF
WE RECEIVE TRAINING CELLS INTERACTING WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY. A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE OF THE PULSE TYPE BRINGING STRONG DOWNBURSTS.
TEMPERATURES CREEP UP INTO TUESDAY, FROM BELOW SEASONAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN LOW TO MID 80S SUNDAY TO ABOVE SEASONAL UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S INTO TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT ON...THE CONTENTION BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER
HIGH AND THE EAST COAST UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES, WITH THE PLAINS
UPPER HIGH WINNING AS IT BUILDS SLOWLY EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. MOISTURE LEVELS ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS DAYTIME HEATING
WORKS WITH INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASES INSTABILITY TO
OVERRIDE UPPER SUBSIDENCE FROM THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 89 TO 94 DEGREE RANGE BY FRIDAY. HEAT INDICES ALSO CREEP UP,
RISING TO AROUND 100 BY THURSDAY AND INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE
RANGE FOR FRIDAY.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, CONSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST, BUT WEAKENS WITH THE
SHIFTING UPPER PATTERN. THE TIDAL RANGE DECREASES THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH A CURRENT HIGH OVERNIGHT DROPPING TO LOW BY MONDAY. BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK, THE TIDAL RANGE BEGINS TO INCREASE,
BRINGING A MODERATE RISK BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA.
/16
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED PATCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT INCREASE
TO NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY ALONG AND WEST
OF I-65 WITH LESSER COVERAGE FURTHER TO THE EAST. IFR TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. OTHERWISE, IFR
TO MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING
TO MVFR/VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUN 6 2026
A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS WE MOVE
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND OPEN UP THE NEW WEEK. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY RETURNS TO SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SEAS TO GRADUALLY LOWER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 85 73 87 71 / 70 10 10 0
PENSACOLA 85 76 87 75 / 40 10 0 0
DESTIN 85 75 87 75 / 20 10 0 0
EVERGREEN 84 70 88 70 / 80 20 20 10
WAYNESBORO 86 72 86 70 / 80 30 40 10
CAMDEN 82 71 85 70 / 90 30 30 10
CRESTVIEW 86 70 90 71 / 40 10 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page