046
FXUS64 KMOB 132346
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
646 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR COASTAL
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS, WITH
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE LIKELY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF GEARING UP FOR OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM WITH A GOOD MIX OF IMPACTS, WITH BEACH AND MARINE
HAZARDS BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES) SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, AND SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS A SURFACE
RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL ON
TRACK TO OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS AND
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SEND AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
DIVING INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S INLAND AND MIDDLE 30S
ALONG THE COAST.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING OUR FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH AN AMPLE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN MIDDLE 60S AND INCREASING MLCAPE VALUES
NOW UP TO AROUND 1100 TO 1600J/KG, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES CLOSER
TO THE COAST. MODEST SHEAR FOR POSSIBLE ORGANIZED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF ANOTHER EVENTUAL
QLCS, AND WE EXPECT AROUND 200-300 M2/S2 OF SFC-3KM SRH TO BE
PRESENT. IN ADDITION, SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 50-60 KTS, WITH UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.3
C/KM. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANY STORMS WITHIN THE QLCS OR
THE DISCRETE ACTIVITY TO POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. AS ALWAYS, THESE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY UPWARD OR DOWNWARD
TREND. CURRENTLY THE ANTICIPATED TIMING FOR DISCRETE STORMS WOULD
BE SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THE QLCS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ENTER
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA COUNTIES
LATE SUNDAY EVENING AND SPREAD QUICKLY EASTWARD. /22
BEACH FORECAST - RISK REMAINS LOW THROUGH SATURDAY FOR COASTAL
ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES. THE STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS QUICKLY INCREASING
LATE IN THE WEEKEND. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS NOW IN THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY
IMPROVE IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. 07/MB /22
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY RELAX OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM
OVERNIGHT. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2026
LIGHT MOSTLY EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND,
SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY EVENING. STRENGTHENING ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS EARLY ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS ABRUPTLY
TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MONDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALES BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 48 76 58 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 68 52 74 63 / 0 0 0 10
DESTIN 67 55 73 63 / 0 0 0 20
EVERGREEN 74 44 80 55 / 0 0 0 10
WAYNESBORO 71 44 77 55 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 71 44 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 73 46 80 57 / 0 0 0 10
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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