215
FXUS64 KMOB 091126
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
626 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 616 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
- MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
PERFORMED A BRIEF GRIDDED FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING TO BRING IN
LATEST SHORT-RANGE BLENDED GUIDANCE MATCHED WITH OBS/TRENDS. QUIET
OVERALL, OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED MARINE SHOWERS AND STORMS WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. NO ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR HIGHS,
AS EVERYTHING IS LOOKING ON TRACK. LOOKING THROUGH 00Z GUIDANCE
OVERNIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WE'LL SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY, EVEN ANOTHER WATERSPOUT
RISK AROUND COASTAL AREAS EARLY IN THE MORNING HOURS. BLENDED
GUIDANCE IS COMING IN WITH 50-70% IN THE AFTERNOON, AND FEELS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT AND MODEL TRENDS/CONFIDENCE. THIS
WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH DAILY
NUMEROUS SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES EACH DAY. KLG
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS ALL, OR NEARLY
ALL, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
RIDGE SOON WEAKENS AND LATER RETREATS INTO THE FAR WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS A MODEST UPPER TROF OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF SLOWLY
PROGRESSES INTO EASTERN TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE AN EVOLVING
UPPER TROF TRAVERSES THE PLAINS AND BEGINS TO ADVANCE INTO THE
EASTERN STATES. WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE UPPER TROF
CONTINUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH FRIDAY, A
BROAD AND WEAK UPPER TROF WILL BE LEFT ROUGHLY FROM EASTERN TEXAS
UP TO ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THIS
PATTERN SETS UP A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO ACROSS
TENNESSEE AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STEADILY WEAKENS GOING INTO FRIDAY BUT ALSO APPEARS TO DRIFT INTO
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE AREA ALLOWS FOR ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH A PROGRESSIVELY
MORE CONVECTIVE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS
WELL INLAND TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS ELSEWHERE ON THURSDAY,
THEN POPS TREND TO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY. A WEAK
UPPER TROF PERSISTS ON SATURDAY FROM ROUGHLY EASTERN TEXAS TO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, AFTER WHICH THE UPPER RIDGE LOCATED
MOSTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY ON INTO MONDAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ON SATURDAY, THEN RAIN CHANCES TREND TO
MOSTLY CHANCE POPS ON MONDAY.
WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW, STORMS THAT DEVELOP EACH DAY WILL BE
SLOW MOVING WHICH COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHEN THE BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED.
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE 90-95 THEN TREND TO UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS THEN GRADUALLY TREND TO THE
LOWER 90S ON MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES TEND TO RANGE FROM 95-102
THROUGH FRIDAY THEN SLOWLY TREND TO 100-105 BY MONDAY. LOWS EACH
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN A LOW RISK IS ANTICIPATED FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. /29
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH, IF ANY COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA LATER
TODAY WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY AHEAD. WINDS TO PICK UP ALONG THE
COAST BEARING 070-090 AT 10-15KTS AND OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS,
OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
DID INTRODUCE PROB30'S FOR COASTAL TAF LOCATIONS AT THE END OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AT THIS TIME. KLG
MARINE
ISSUED AT 248 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 10-15KTS, 12-18KTS 20NM TO 60NM. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS ON THE
GULF SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS AROUND
2 TO 3 FEET WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 1 FOOT THURSDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY EACH
MORNING. KLG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 91 74 89 74 / 0 10 70 50
PENSACOLA 91 78 88 77 / 10 30 70 50
DESTIN 91 78 88 78 / 10 40 60 60
EVERGREEN 93 72 92 71 / 0 10 60 20
WAYNESBORO 94 73 94 72 / 0 0 40 10
CAMDEN 93 73 93 72 / 0 0 40 10
CRESTVIEW 92 73 90 72 / 0 10 80 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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