658
FXUS64 KMOB 142355
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
655 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES,
BECOMING A HIGH RISK ON WEDNESDAY.
- COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
FOR MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WARM EVENING TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S INLAND AND AROUND 80 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST. A BROKEN LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO OUR NORTHERN ZONES STARTING AROUND
MID-EVENING AND DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES THE I-10 CORRIDOR BY LATE
TONIGHT. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
A MUCH WETTER PATTERN SETS UP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEW WORK
WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND
SENDS A WEAK FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH BY MIDWEEK.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE VALUES WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ON MONDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.2 TO 2.4 INCHES.
THE COMBINATION OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY, MOISTURE LEVELS AND A
SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERLY FLOW AT THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH, WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A WET START TO THE WEEK.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES,
LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 5 TO 8 INCHES. INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
OCCUR WHERE BANDING AND PROLONGED TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES OCCUR NEAR THE STALLED BOUNDARY. A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CONTINUES FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY AND THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS HOT WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 80S AND HIGHS
TUESDAY IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. /13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS NEAR A BROKEN LINE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS PUSHES SOUTH STARTING
AROUND MID-EVENING. MVFR CEILINGS WITH OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR
LEVELS WILL QUICKLY SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING AS
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ADVANCE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AGAIN BRINGING
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER
ACTIVITY ALONG WITH GUSTY SURFACE WINDS. WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 78 88 74 82 / 20 80 60 90
PENSACOLA 80 90 77 85 / 10 80 50 80
DESTIN 80 89 77 85 / 10 60 40 80
EVERGREEN 75 86 71 80 / 40 90 80 100
WAYNESBORO 74 82 70 78 / 60 100 80 100
CAMDEN 73 81 69 77 / 40 90 80 100
CRESTVIEW 77 89 72 82 / 10 90 60 90
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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