213
FXUS64 KMOB 242051
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
351 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
- RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS, POSSIBLE WEST OF THE
ALABAMA RIVER.
- THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE, WILL BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS
OR SO AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND SETTLES
OVERHEAD. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE
ARKLATEX, IS HELPING TO SPARK SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SE
ARKANSAS/NE MISSISSIPPI. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, STORMS IN THIS
AREA ARE EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS AND QUICKLY PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD. STRONG DESTABILIZATION DUE TO AFTERNOON HEATING AND
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR THIS MCS TO
CONTINUE ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND POSSIBLY REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS (EARLIEST ARRIVAL AROUND
9 PM; LATEST ARRIVAL AROUND MIDNIGHT). BY TIME IT REACHES OUR
AREA, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE MCS SHOULD BECOME MORE COLD-POOL
DOMINANT AND START TO WEAKEN DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE OUTRUNNING THE STORMS. THAT BEING SAID,
IF THE MCS MOVES A BIT QUICKER AND MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH A BIT
LONGER, THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS MCS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS OF 40-60 MPH OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA (PRIMARILY WEST OF THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER). THE MCS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TIME IT REACHES THE I-65 CORRIDOR. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT A FEW CAMS SUGGEST THAT A SECONDARY MCS COULD
DEVELOP LATER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND TRAVEL ALONG THE
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LAID OUT BY THE FIRST MCS. ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SECONDARY MCS IS VERY LOW, IF IT WERE TO
DEVELOP, IT COULD BRING ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY, OR A
LITTLE BEFORE, DAYBREAK.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL MS/AL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES, EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE SUBTROPICAL JET, WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD. THESE
FEATURES, ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AND ANY REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM PREVIOUS STORMS, SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH WE MAY START OFF THE DAY RATHER STABLE DUE TO THE
EARLIER STORMS, STRONG DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BY THE
AFTERNOON (MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG IN SPOTS).
ADDITIONALLY, ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK, DEEP LAYER
SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 30-40 KNOTS THANKS TO THE
SUBTROPICAL JET OVERHEAD. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE ORGANIZATION OF A
FEW MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS/LOOSELY ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS. MODELED
PROFILES LOOK TO REMAIN UNIDIRECTIONAL, GIVING WAY TO STRAIGHT-LINED
HODOGRAPHS, WHICH WOULD FAVOR STORM SPLITS. THEREFORE, IF WE DO
MANAGE TO GET A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LARGE HAIL. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
SHOULD QUICKLY LOWER BY THE EVENING HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING.
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS ONE LAST SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD. OVERALL SYNOPTICS
AND THERMODYNAMICS ARE SIMILAR TO THAT OF SATURDAY, SO WE CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS DAY EITHER. WE DO GET A
BRIEF BREAK ON MONDAY AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET WEAKENS AND UPPER
RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD. RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSES
ACROSS THE CONUS. ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS AT THIS
TIME, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MACHINE-LEARNING/CIPS ANALOG GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO PAINT RATHER BROAD AREAS OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH EACH DAY THROUGHOUT THE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT THIS POINT
LOOK TO REMAIN JUST TO OUR NORTH, THINGS ARE BOUND TO CHANGE SINCE
WE ARE STILL 5-7 DAYS OUT. THEREFORE, WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON
TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT
IN THE 80S EACH DAY (POTENTIALLY SOME LOW 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK)
AND LOWS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 60S. THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED
TO LOWER THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN LOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /96
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. LOWER CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 65 83 66 85 / 30 50 20 40
PENSACOLA 67 79 68 83 / 10 40 30 30
DESTIN 68 78 68 80 / 10 40 30 30
EVERGREEN 60 84 61 87 / 20 70 40 30
WAYNESBORO 63 83 63 84 / 50 60 30 50
CAMDEN 62 81 62 83 / 40 70 40 30
CRESTVIEW 61 84 63 88 / 10 50 30 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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