675
FXUS64 KMOB 121143
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
643 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
- A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE MOVES EAST OF I-65
INCLUDING THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST
FLORIDA BEACHES LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS SET UP OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING
CREATING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1012 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM EJECTS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT. ALONG WITH IT, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST SENDING A CONVECTIVE SQUALL LINE, POTENTIALLY
SEVERE IN AREAS PRODUCING SWATHS OF DAMAGING WINDS UP TO/EXCESS OF
70 MPH AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG TORNADOES, RAPIDLY EASTWARD OVER
THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF THE LINE REMAINS UNCHANGED,
WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY AM.
THE FRONT MAKES PASSAGE BY DAYBREAK, BRINGING WIND SHIFT,
STRENGTHENING NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE, DRIER AND MUCH
COOLER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60'S INTERIOR AND MID/UPPER 60'S COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT, LOWS BREAK INTO THE UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO MID 40'S
COAST. WE MAY NEED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR OUR INLAND AREAS
AS RECENT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND SPRING
GARDENS ARE LIKELY SEEING TENDER GROWTH EMERGING. THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WILL BE RAIN-FREE AS AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
AREA. DAILY HIGHS/LOWS MODERATING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MAY BEGIN
TO SEE A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING SUNDAY, WITH THE BETTER
CHANCE PERHAPS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DIG SOUTH OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS, FOLLOWED BY THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT MONDAY. TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT
WEEK EXPECTED TO DIVE TO WELL BELOW NORMAL OVER THE INTERIOR WITH
MID 50'S FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND AROUND 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. 55 TO
60 AREA-WIDE TUESDAY AND 12-17 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. COLDEST
NIGHT NEXT WEEK IS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
OVER THE INTERIOR AND MID/UPPER 30S COAST.
BEACH FORECAST: A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY
RIP CURRENTS SETS UP AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
SETTLING BACK TO A LOW RISK BY FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF
HEIGHTS UP TO FOUR FEET ARE ALSO LIKELY PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. /10
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AHEAD
OF A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 36 KTS. A FEW TORNADOES
POSSIBLE. THIS LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE MARINE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. SEAS BUILDING AND HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM AT 5 TO 7' DUE TO
THE ESTABLISHED NORTHERLY FETCH. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES
ESTABLISHED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT
ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS
TRENDING LOWER. /10
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 66 42 71 49 / 10 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 66 47 67 51 / 20 0 0 0
DESTIN 69 49 66 54 / 40 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 64 38 73 43 / 10 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 62 39 72 45 / 10 0 0 0
CAMDEN 61 38 71 43 / 10 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 68 39 72 45 / 40 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ633>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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