989
FXUS64 KMOB 231748
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1248 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
- ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.
- A HIGH RISK FOR STRONG, POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A MODERATE
RISK SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. A HIGH RISK FOR STRONG,
POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY RETURN
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
LIFE GUARDS ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES ARE
FLYING RED FLAGS THIS MORNING AND REPORTING STRONG TO MODERATE RIP
CURRENTS. THEREFORE, WE UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT TO HIGH AND UPDATED THE SURF ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT AND
KEY MESSAGES. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THROUGH MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS, THEN SOUTHERN PLAINS BEFORE BEING DEFLECTED NORTHEAST BY AN
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. THE PATTERN
MAINTAINS A SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN TX TO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. A SOUPY AIRMASS IS MAINTAINED SOUTH OF THE
FRONT( PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES IN THE 1.8"-2.0" RANGE) BY A
MODEST CONSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST
AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE STREAM OF PASSING ENERGY WILL HELP FIRE OFF
DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE, ESPECIALLY WELL NORTHWEST OF I-65, WITH THE
PASSING ENERGY BRINGING MODEST MID LEVEL HEIGHT DROPS. ALSO, WATER
ISSUES WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR, WITH THE SOUPY AIRMASS
ALLOWING FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAINERS. ANY
FOCUSING BOUNDARIES DEVELOPING, AND THE RISK OF WATER ISSUES GOES
UP. BETTER RAIN CHANCES NORTHWEST OF I-65 WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE
A DISCONTINUITY IN TEMPERATURES, WITH BELOW SEASONAL NORMS LOW 80S
NORTHWEST OF I-65, NEAR SEASONAL NORMS MID/UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST.
THE SOUPY AIRMASS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER, ALONG WITH UPPER
SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, AROUND
70 WELL INLAND, LOW TO MID 70S ALONG AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.
TUESDAY ON, THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN HANGS TOUGH UNTIL A
SERIES OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS SHIFTS THE CARIBBEAN HIGH SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND ABOVE
SEASONAL POPS CONTINUE. EVEN SO, BEST RAIN AMOUNTS REMAIN
NORTHWEST OF I-65 THROUGH THE WEEK.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES. CONSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW VARIES IN STRENGTH, WITH ONSHORE SWELL VARYING IN
RESPONSE. THE TIDAL CYCLE SLOWLY DECREASES INTO THE COMING WEEK,
BUT THE RIP RISK REMAINS MODERATE TO AT TIMES HIGH THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD. /16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOCAL AREA AT
ISSUANCE TIME, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS LINGER ALONG
THE COAST. OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN PREVALENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON,
PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-10. EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES
AND CEILINGS IN SOME OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS
MAY RETURN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
/96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1 TO 3
FEET. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. MM/25
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 85 72 82 / 50 80 60 90
PENSACOLA 74 85 74 83 / 40 50 40 80
DESTIN 74 84 74 84 / 20 40 40 70
EVERGREEN 69 86 70 84 / 30 80 30 90
WAYNESBORO 69 83 69 81 / 40 90 70 100
CAMDEN 68 84 68 82 / 30 90 60 90
CRESTVIEW 70 88 71 87 / 40 60 20 70
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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