706  
FXUS64 KMOB 281926  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
126 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021  
   
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY/
 
UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS, WITH  
ITS AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST, THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, A  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THROUGH  
MONDAY AFTERNOON, A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE  
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ON TOWARDS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.  
THE SHORTWAVE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE  
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING  
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST DURING THIS TIME. A SURFACE COLD  
FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY  
MONDAY MORNING. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO  
HAVE MOVED OVER THE LAND AREAS AND BEGIN TO PROGRESS OVER THE  
MARINE WATERS.  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED PATTERN, ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW (AND  
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE) WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BY  
LATE THIS EVENING, RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN START TO INCREASE FROM  
THE NORTH AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES SOUTHWARD OVER THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY DOWN THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS  
SHOWERS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AS  
WELL AS INLAND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA MONDAY THROUGH  
MORNING. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF  
HIGHWAY 84 DURING THIS TIME, WHICH IS ALSO THE AREA WHERE MODEL  
PWATS ARE GREATEST (BETWEEN 1.30-1.45 INCHES). SCATTERED SHOWERS  
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE  
COAST AND OVER THE MARINE AREA AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES OVER THE  
LOCAL AREA. IN ADDITION, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF  
SOME INSTABILITY MONDAY AFTERNOON, GENERALLY ALONG AND BEHIND THE  
FRONT. ALTHOUGH, THIS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AND ELEVATED, AS  
MLCAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN TO ONLY BE AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG AND SOUTH  
OF HIGHWAY 84. THUS, HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THESE AREAS.  
 
THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE RETURN OF DENSE FOG TONIGHT. ONCE  
AGAIN, MODEL PROBABILITIES ARE INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF DENSE  
FOG DEVELOPING OVER THE NEARSHORE MARINE WATERS, BAYS, AND SOUNDS  
STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING, THEN SPREADING INLAND BY LATE THIS  
EVENING. AT THIS TIME, EXPECTING THE DENSE FOG TO MAINLY IMPACT  
AREAS NEAR THE COAST, WITH PATCHY FOG OVER INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT.  
THUS, HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR COASTAL ALABAMA, THE  
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, AND STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES IN  
MISSISSIPPI BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO  
IMPROVE OVER THE LAND AREAS BY MID-MORNING ON MONDAY, SO THE  
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM MONDAY MORNING.  
 
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED A BIT HIGHER THAN  
ORIGINALLY FORECAST, WITH CURRENT VALUES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER  
80S ACROSS THE REGION. WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PERSISTENT  
MOISTURE, NOT EXPECTING LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO DROP TOO MUCH.  
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, WITH A FEW SPOTS REACHING THE UPPER  
60S, ARE ANTICIPATED. THEN, AS THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY OVER  
THE AREA ON MONDAY, HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S  
GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND THEN BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S  
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. LASTLY, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS  
CONTINUES FOR THE SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE  
BEACHES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. /26  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 1213 PM CST SUN FEB 28 2021/  
 
AVIATION...  
18Z ISSUANCE...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WERE PRESENT AT THE TAF  
SITES AT ISSUANCE. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY BY  
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN AT MVFR. CONDITIONS WILL DECLINE  
SHARPLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH LIFR TO IFR EXPECTED  
AREA-WIDE. THIS IS DUE TO LOW CIGS BUT ALSO LOW VIS AS WELL, SINCE  
FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DENSE SEA  
FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AS WELL AS RIGHT ALONG  
THE COAST THIS EVENING AND SPREAD INLAND BY LATE THIS EVENING.  
NOT EXPECTING THE DENSE FOG TO LIFT OVER THE LAND AREAS UNTIL MID-  
MORNING ON MONDAY. IN TERMS OF RAIN, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE  
OVER THE LOCAL AREA BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY  
MORNING. WITH THIS WILL COME INCREASED CHANCES OF RAIN FROM NORTH  
TO SOUTH, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ANTICIPATED OVER INLAND  
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INLAND SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH- CENTRAL  
ALABAMA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT LOW CIGS TO CONTINUE  
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, BUT PERHAPS A SLIGHT RECOVERY TO HIGH-END  
IFR IS POSSIBLE BY LATE MORNING. SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS  
WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO BE BETWEEN 5-10  
KNOTS THIS EVENING. WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD  
FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE MORE EASTERLY NEAR THE COAST AND  
MORE NORTHERLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 BY MID-MORNING MONDAY, RANGING  
FROM 5-10 KNOTS. /26  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR  
ALZ261>266.  
 
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.  
 
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR  
FLZ201>206.  
 
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-  
206.  
 
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY FOR  
MSZ078-079.  
 
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR  
GMZ630>636-650-655.  
 

 
 

 
 
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