603
FXUS64 KMOB 261816
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1216 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
STRONG RIP CURRENTS CREATING DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE RETURNED FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. BEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH A MEAN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS PASSES OVER THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE, EVENTUALLY STALLING SOUTH OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. WITH DECENT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND NEARBY (PRECIPITABLE H20
VALUES AROUND 1.5") ALONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
FRONT, RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. ADDING IN SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE
FROM A PASSING SPLIT UPPER LEVEL JET, AND SOME INSTABILITY (GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING MUCAPES IN THE 600-800J/KG RANGE), LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS MAY CAUSE PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH THE FORECAST
AREA EXPERIENCING VERY DRY TO DROUGHT CONDITIONS, THIS RAIN WILL
HELP TO MOISTEN AREA SOILS, BUT LIMIT WATER ISSUES. THE EXPECTED
QUICK PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO HELP TO LIMIT MORE SERIOUS
WATER ISSUES.
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THEN SHIFTS EAST AS A STRONG CLOSED UPPER LOW DIVES SOUTH OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, SHIFTING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN
RESPONSE. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS THROUGH MID WEEK, DEFLECTING THE
UPPER LOW AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
LOOKING AT TEMPERATURES, ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IS THE NAME OF THE
GAME FOR TEMPERATURES. LOW TO MID 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 BY SUNDAY, REMAINING THERE FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES SEE A MORE VARIABILITY
INITIALLY, DROPPING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 TONIGHT TO THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. FROM THERE, A WARMING TREND
ENSUES, WITH MID 50S TO AROUND 60 EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW INCREASING ONSHORE SWELL AND A LARGE TIDAL
RAIN IS BRING A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS TO AREA BEACHES. AM
EXPECTING THIS TO DECREASE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK AS THE ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES LESS
ORGANIZED AND THE TIDAL RANGE DECREASES.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AFTER 00Z AND LIKELY REACH THE I-
10 CORRIDOR BY LATE TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS. LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT.
JGC/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY WILL SHIFT TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF
AREA WATERS. LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN EARLY IN THE WEEK,
WITH SOME STRENGTHENING MID WEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 76 61 73 54 / 20 70 70 10
PENSACOLA 74 62 71 56 / 10 60 70 20
DESTIN 71 61 69 56 / 20 60 70 30
EVERGREEN 76 57 73 51 / 30 90 70 10
WAYNESBORO 74 57 73 49 / 60 90 30 0
CAMDEN 74 56 71 51 / 60 90 40 10
CRESTVIEW 76 59 73 52 / 20 70 80 20
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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