190  
FXUS64 KMOB 172208  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
408 PM CST THU JAN 17 2019  
   
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
CURRENTLY, A WEAK SURFACE  
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS AND A LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF  
OF MEXICO IS BRINGING MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF  
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE  
FORECAST AREA IS BRINGING SCATTERED LIGHT RAINSHOWERS TO THE AREA,  
WITH AREAS SOUTHEAST OF I65 SEEING LITTLE IF ANY DROPS REACHING THE  
GROUND DUE TO A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER TO MOISTEN UP.  
TONIGHT, THE AREA OF UPGLIDE WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE PLAINS SURFACE  
TROUGH SHIFTS EAST, WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED TO HIT THE GROUND AS THE  
BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THIS PORTION OF THE AREA MOISTENS. HAVE SHIFTED  
THE BAND OF ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED POPS EAST IN RESPONSE, BUT  
KEPT THE CHANCE OF RAIN LOW DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE UPGLIDE.  
LATER TONIGHT, FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SOME LOCALITIES MAY  
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1 MILES, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD  
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND COOLING  
INHIBITING CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT, AM EXPECTING OVERNIGHT  
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS, WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT  
IN THE UPPER 40S WELL INLAND TO LOW 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.  
 
FRIDAY, THE AREA WILL SEE MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AS THE AREA OF  
UPGLIDE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE AROUND AT THE  
START OF THE DAY OVER THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE, BUT SHOULD BE  
GONE BY LATE MORNING. WITH MORE SUN EXPECTED TO HEAT THE AREA, HIGHS  
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ARE EXPECTED, RANGING FROM THE MID 60S  
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR TO NEAR 70 CLOSER TO THE COAST.  
16/SAM  
 
   
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
SOUTHERLY FLOW  
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST  
AREA FROM THE WEST. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT DEEP LAYER  
MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT  
OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY  
ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. THIS  
WILL BE A FAST MOVING FRONT AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED  
TO BE EXCESSIVE DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM,  
GENERALLY ONE HALF TO ONE INCH BUT A FEW ISOLATED TOTALS UP TO  
AROUND 2 INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE.  
 
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER STILL HAS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA  
OUTLOOKED FOR A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY, AND  
WE STILL MAINTAIN THIS LINE OF THINKING AS WELL. BUT, MODELS HAVE  
BEEN TRENDING UPWARD WITH REGARD TO AVAILABLE INSTABILITY ACROSS  
OUR AREA ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST, AND WE WILL HAVE  
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR POTENTIAL. GFS NOW INDICATING  
POSSIBLE MUCAPES OF 500-700 J/KG OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES  
SATURDAY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. BOTH GFS  
AND ECMWF INDICATE A COINCIDING 850 MB JET OF 50-60 KNOTS RESULTING IN  
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR QLCS STRUCTURES ALONG THE SQUALL  
LINE THAT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING TO  
EARLY EVENING SATURDAY, ASSUMING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. THUS,  
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT, WITH PERHAPS A  
BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO ESPECIALLY IF POCKETS OF GREATER INSTABILITY  
CAN DEVELOP.  
 
THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OF TO THE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY  
LATE SATURDAY EVENING, WITH RAINS ENDING AND COLD, DRY HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION. MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS IN THE  
WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM  
THE MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR TO AROUND 30 NEAR THE COAST.  
OTHERWISE MAX, MIN TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL DURING THE  
SHORT TERM PERIOD.  
 
WILL ALSO BE LOOKING AT AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG  
THE COAST BY SATURDAY WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF  
THE APPROACHING FRONT. 12/DS  
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EAST  
MONDAY, ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO  
TUESDAY. THE NEXT AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT  
AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING THE NEXT GOOD  
CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THOUGH TIMING  
OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. 12/DS  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY OVER  
AREA WATERS WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. SEAS BUILD IN RESPONSE TO THE  
INCREASING WINDS, WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY TO BE ISSUED  
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST DUE TO STRONG WINDS AND  
BUILDING SEAS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AHEAD OF A  
STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA, WITH THE COLD FRONT CROSSING  
AREA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND  
THE FRONT WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE  
FORCE MIXED IN WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY, THEN OFFSHORE FLOW  
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SETTLE AND SHIFT  
BACK TO ONSHORE AS A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES NORTH OF AREA WATERS.  
OPEN GULF WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS REMAINING AT MODERATE  
LEVELS, WITH AREA BAYS SEEING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS. ANOTHER LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA MID WEEK, BRINGING A COLD  
FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 16/SAM  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
 
 
MOBILE 52 69 58 68 37 48 30 54 / 30 10 20 80 30 10 0 0  
PENSACOLA 55 68 60 69 40 49 31 53 / 30 20 20 80 50 10 0 0  
DESTIN 56 67 61 68 43 51 35 53 / 30 20 20 80 50 10 0 0  
EVERGREEN 49 67 56 70 38 46 28 54 / 30 10 20 80 50 10 0 0  
WAYNESBORO 48 66 55 67 34 45 26 51 / 30 10 50 80 20 10 0 0  
CAMDEN 48 64 54 69 35 44 26 51 / 30 10 40 80 50 10 0 0  
CRESTVIEW 49 69 57 70 39 47 28 53 / 30 20 20 80 50 10 0 0  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB  
 
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