351
FXUS64 KMOB 080722
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
222 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..NEW MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS
WEEKEND AND HEAVY RAIN EACH DAY THOUGH THE WEEKEND.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR TODAY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN MEXICO SHEARS OUT ACROSS
TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND AIDS IN SENDING A CONTINUING
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LARGE AND BROAD UPPER TROF MEANWHILE SPANS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS, THEN AMPLIFIES AND PROGRESSES ACROSS
THE EASTERN STATES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF DRIFTS SLOWLY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MEANDERS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY, WEAKENING IN THE PROCESS. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THEN HAVE GONE WITH
VERY HIGH POPS FOR SATURDAY WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY LIFTING INTO
THE AREA. FOR SUNDAY, HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS AS IT'S
POSSIBLE SOME VESTIGES OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY STILL BE OVER
THE AREA ALONG WITH THE CONTINUING SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. HAVE GONE
WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY
MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS THEN FOLLOWING THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURS ON FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ROOTED ABOVE 800
MB, THOUGH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES AROUND 50 KNOTS ARE INDICATED.
WHILE THE CONVECTION WILL BE ELEVATED, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
STRONG STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WHERE THE
BEST FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. THE CONVECTION BECOMES SURFACE BASED
ON SATURDAY, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TO
INCREASE TO 40-50 KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN
THE AFTERNOON WHILE FURTHER INLAND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MUCH
LOWER. DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT, THERE COULD BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS ON SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS WELL DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO
REPEATEDLY TRAVERSE THE SAME AREAS. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. /29
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AT ISSUANCE
TIME, ALTHOUGH AN MVFR CEILING AT AROUND 2500FT IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THIS MVFR CLOUD
DECK IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR COASTAL
COUNTIES, WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR INLAND COUNTIES. BY
THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO DEVELOP AND PASS ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGHEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EXPECT BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IN SOME OF THE
HEAVIER STORMS. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE BY THE EVENING HOURS, WITH
LOW-END MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING PREVALENT. LIGHT NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS TURN ONSHORE TONIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OFFSHORE WINDS RETURN ON MONDAY AND
WILL INCREASE TO A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG FLOW BY MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. A BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR OUR LOCAL GULF WATERS MONDAY NIGHT. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 75 67 80 68 / 80 70 90 50
PENSACOLA 77 70 80 70 / 70 60 90 60
DESTIN 78 70 79 70 / 70 40 80 60
EVERGREEN 74 60 79 63 / 70 80 90 50
WAYNESBORO 72 62 78 64 / 70 60 70 50
CAMDEN 72 60 77 62 / 30 70 80 40
CRESTVIEW 78 64 81 65 / 70 70 90 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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