059
FXUS64 KMOB 111903
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
203 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 202 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS OVER THE MARINE WATERS
TODAY, PRIMARILY FROM THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THROUGH MID- MORNING.
- HIGH TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES RANGING FROM 100-107 DEGREES, 102 TO 109 MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THROUGH MONDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY. THIS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE SOUTHEAST, THEN SHIFTS OFF THE EAST
COAST, AS AN UPPER HIGH ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, THEN
MOVES OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST. THE STREAM OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ONSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY OVER THE FORECAST
AREA AND NEARBY WILL COMBINE WITH THE SOUPY AIRMASS CURRENTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA (PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 2.1"-
2.3" RANGE) TO CREATE NUMEROUS RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A DRIER AIRMASS
SLOWLY EDGES EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY (WITH PRECIPITABLE H20 VALUES DROPPING INTO THE 1.5"-1.7
RANGE BY MONDAY), DROPPING RAIN CHANCES TO ISOLATED TO LOW END
SCATTERED MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES BEING SEABREEZE INITIATED
CONVECTION WELL SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF WATER
ISSUES INTO SATURDAY EAST OF THE ALABAMA RIVER WITH GOOD INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES TOPPING OUT IN THE 2000-2500J/KG RANGE). ADD IN WEAK WINDS
AND SLOW CELL MOVEMENT, ANY EFFICIENT RAINERS MAY CAUSE WATER
ISSUES. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, WITH MLCAPES STILL AROUND 2000J/KG, ALONG WITH DCAPES IN
THE 700-1000J/KG RANGE, ALONG WITH WEAK SHEAR, WITH PULSE SEVERE THE
EXPECTED DAMAGE MODE.
TEMPERATURES SEE A RISE FROM A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS TO WELL
ABOVE BY ABOVE BY MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE AROUND 90 TO LOW
90S SATURDAY (WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT IN THE 98 TO 106 DEGREE
RANGE) TO THE LOW TO LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY (WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE
101 TO 108 RANGE). LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
IN THE EXTENDED, AN UPPER LOW MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE EAST COAST,
SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
WESTWARD (TO VARYING EXTENTS DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL). AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH, A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPERATURES SEE A DOWNWARD TREND INTO THE END OF
THE WEEK WITH THE LOSS OF UPPER SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SHIFTING UPPER
HIGH, WITH HEAT INDICES SEEING AN EVEN GREATER DROP (MID TO UPPER
90S BY THURSDAY). POPS REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE, ESPECIALLY OVER
AREAS NORTH OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES. GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT WITH
THE EFFECT OF THE UPPER LOW ON SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH, SO HAVE WENT
WITH A BLEND FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST. WITH ALL THE INCONSISTENCY,
HAVE LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, A GENERAL LOW
RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK. A MORE
ORGANIZED, MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE SWELL TO
AREA BEACHES, ALONG WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH RIP RISK TO AREA BEACHES.
/16
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
IN THE MORNING WITH REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISBYS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
AN UPPER HIGH MOVING OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY/SOUTHEAST, WITH SHIFT A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF,
BRINGING A MORE VARIABLE FLOW TO AREA WATERS EARLY IN THE COMING
WEEK. A SURFACE RIDGE DEVELOPS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK, BRINGING A LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW
TO AREA WATERS, WITH BETTER FLOW OVER OPEN GULF WATERS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 87 73 89 73 / 80 40 60 30
PENSACOLA 87 77 88 77 / 90 50 70 40
DESTIN 87 78 88 78 / 90 50 70 40
EVERGREEN 87 71 90 70 / 90 40 70 20
WAYNESBORO 88 71 91 71 / 90 30 50 10
CAMDEN 86 71 89 71 / 90 40 70 20
CRESTVIEW 87 72 90 72 / 90 50 70 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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