387
FXUS64 KMOB 181200
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
700 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
- A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS AND LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOOD
SITUATION EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A HIGH RISK FOR FLOODING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, COASTAL ALABAMA, AND
THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING
IS LIKELY AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
- NUMEROUS MARINE HAZARDS EXIST ACROSS THE AREA. THERE REMAINS A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR ALABAMA
AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA BEACHES. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE AROUND MOBILE BAY TODAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY WITH A RISK OF A
FEW TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA AND COASTAL MS MOVE
INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL THROUGHOUT
THE MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS HAVE BEEN SEVERE WITH LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS AND BRIEF TORNADOES. THE TORNADO WATCH FOR STONE
AND GEORGE COUNTIES REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8AM THIS MORNING, AND
ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AS THE STORMS
MARCH TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. NUMEROUS TO OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS WILL
AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. ALL OF THIS CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE
SPREADING BACK TOWARD THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
A MULTI-HAZARD HIGH IMPACT WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
..FLOODING THREAT
A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS AND LIFT THREATENING FLOOD EVENT IS
EXPECTED TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
INTO PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE
AND PERSIST THROUGH MID MORNING. THIS WILL BE ALONG A CONVERGENCE
AXIS DEVELOPING TO THE EAST OF THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. A 50KT LOW LEVEL JET
HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THIS AXIS AND HAS BECOME ALIGNED WITH THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR AT
TIMES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING 6
INCHES ACROSS A WIDE AREA, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD SHIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE COAST
BY MID MORNING WITH THE GREATEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALIGNING
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR WHERE A STRONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT SHOULD
EXIST. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD FAVOR BACKBUILDING AND
TRAINING OF CONVECTION AS IT CONTINUALLY ADVECTS AN UNSTABLE AND
VERY MOIST AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. THIS SETUP WILL LIKELY PERSIST
FOR SEVERAL HOURS AND IT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES EXCEED 3 INCHES ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE (LATEST HREF) SUGGESTS THAT AS
MUCH AS 10 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN MAY OCCUR THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS POTENTIALLY IN EXCESS OF 15 INCHES
POSSIBLE. IF THIS SETUP MATERIALIZES OVER THIS AREA THAT REMAINS
QUITE SATURATED, CONSIDERABLE TO POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLOODING
MAY BE REALIZED. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING SITUATION
AND EVERYONE LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE THIS THREAT
SERIOUSLY AND BE PREPARED TO EVACUATE IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS
ISSUED FOR YOUR LOCATION.
..SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA INCLUDING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI,
SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA, AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TODAY. LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND HELICITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE ALONG THE AXIS OF THE 50KT LOW LEVEL JET. THIS JET WILL
OVERSPREAD THE EXISTING LOW LEVEL TROPICAL AIRMASS WHICH SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CORRIDOR
OF MORNING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST CWA. THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION OF LOW-TOPPED MINI SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW TORNADOES. THIS THREAT SHOULD FIRST
MATERIALIZE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO COASTAL ALABAMA
THIS MORNING AND THEN SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH THE DAY.
..REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
THE MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE TO THE
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BOTH DAYS. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF
WHEREVER THE BOUNDARY STALLS AND POSE THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIALLY RENEWED FLASH FLOODING. THIS SET UP
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, MID LEVEL RIDGING MAY TEMPORARILY BUILD ACROSS
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN STORM
COVERAGE. THIS BREAK WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD BRING A RETURN TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN TEMPERED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH COVERAGE
OF STORMS, BUT INCREASE BACK INTO THE 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASED HEAT
INDICES DURING THIS PERIOD. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL OVER THE COMING DAYS AS HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD APPROACH
HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK. /JLH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA AND COASTAL MS AND WILL MOVE INTO INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MS AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST AL THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
NUMEROUS TO OCCASIONAL WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED STORMS WILL AFFECT THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
THIS CONVECTION WILL SPREAD INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST AND TAF
SITES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING BACK TOWARD THE COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIFR VISIBILITES WITH PERHAPS
INSTANCES OF VLIFR VISIBILITIES LOOK TO BE LIKELY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS SET UP. CEILINGS WILL BE VARIABLE, HOVERING
BETWEEN MVFR/TO IFR CATEGORIES. ADDITIONAL HAZARDS TO
APPROACHES/DEPARTURES ARE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES
POTENTIALLY TO 25 TO 30 KTS. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 241 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEAS RAMPING UP TO 7 TO 9 FEET TODAY. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA UNTIL 6
AM FRIDAY. THE ONSHORE FLOW GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TO A LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON FRIDAY, WITH A PRIMARILY LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 84 77 90 75 / 100 80 60 70
PENSACOLA 85 80 90 78 / 100 80 60 50
DESTIN 85 80 89 78 / 90 70 60 40
EVERGREEN 80 74 87 73 / 100 100 90 60
WAYNESBORO 81 75 88 73 / 100 80 90 60
CAMDEN 79 72 84 71 / 100 90 100 50
CRESTVIEW 82 76 89 74 / 100 90 70 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ051>060-261>266.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ201>206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-079.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ630>632-634-
650-655-670-675.
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