044
FXUS64 KMOB 110041
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
741 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 707 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
- HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAINLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A FEW
STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- HIGH TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT
INDICES POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM 100-107 DEGREES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY ON TRACK THIS EVENING. BASED OFF
LATEST RADAR TRENDS, WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO OTHER UPDATES WERE
NEEDED. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT, STARTING OVER COASTAL SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA, AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING INTO NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND
INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLOW-
MOVING, AND WITH PWATS AT AROUND 2.2-2.4 INCHES, STORMS WILL
LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. 6HR PMMS FROM THE 12Z RUN
OF THE HREF, ALONG WITH SOME OF THE LATEST (18Z-23Z) CAM RUNS DO
HINT AT A FEW QPF BULLS-EYES OF AROUND 4-6 INCHES TONIGHT, MAINLY
OVER COASTAL COUNTIES. IF THESE VALUES BECOME REALIZED, THEN A
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, A DEVELOPING SURFACE FEATURE OFF THE
MISSISSIPPI COAST WILL HELP TO GENERATE STRONG SURFACE VORTICITY
ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES TONIGHT. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN ELEVATED
POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS AS WE GO THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. /96
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
EAST AS A BROAD TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF
THIS TROUGH, A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND STALL BEFORE DISSIPATING FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEP SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL AID TO INCREASE PWATS BACK TO AROUND
2.1-2.3". WEAK TROUGHING PERSISTS WEST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THESE FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY, STARTING IN
THE MORNING NEAR THE COAST AND SPREADING INLAND THROUGH THE DAY.
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING
IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES AND WARMING TEMPS.
THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW TO MID 90S RETURN FOR THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH A LOW RISK EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. /13
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ISSUANCE TIME. THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT, CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR
AS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPS AND MOVES INTO THE
AREA. HIGHEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS FOR AREAS EAST OF MOBILE BAY/TOMBIGBEE RIVER. EXPECT
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS IN SOME OF THE
HEAVIER ACTIVITY. THIS ROUND OF ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH ANOTHER ROUND POSSIBLY STARTING OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI/SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY THE MID AFTERNOON
HOURS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. /96
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2026
NO IMPACTS EXPECTED OTHER THAN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS
POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /13
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 74 88 74 90 / 70 60 50 70
PENSACOLA 78 88 77 89 / 60 80 60 80
DESTIN 79 88 79 88 / 50 70 60 70
EVERGREEN 71 90 71 91 / 20 70 40 70
WAYNESBORO 72 90 72 92 / 20 90 40 70
CAMDEN 72 89 72 91 / 20 60 50 70
CRESTVIEW 73 89 73 91 / 50 60 50 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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