214
FXUS64 KMOB 011725
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1225 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
- A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
HEAVY RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR
ALL AREA BEACHES.
- MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE MARINE AREA MAY CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
HAVE UPDATED TO EXPAND LOW END RAIN CHANCES THIS MORNING TO
INCLUDE MORE OF INTERIOR AREAS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR LOOP. MADE
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY HELPING
A CARVE OUT A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS WILL SEND A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE AREA LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL ALONG THE I-65 CORRIDOR ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING PUSHED EAST ON MONDAY. AS THE TROUGH AND
FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA, THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED
EASTWARD TODAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR SLOWLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
AREA. AS A RESULT, THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF
I-65. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SCATTERED POPS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BEFORE MOVING EAST OF I-65
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A DRIER AIRMASS MOVES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA, RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MOISTURE LEVELS RETURN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. /13
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN-MOST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA CAN BRING LOCAL DROPS IN CONDITIONS TO LOW END
MVFR. MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND LASTING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL AGAIN BRING LOCAL DROPS TO
LOW/MID MVFR LEVELS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY WESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH TONIGHT, WITH A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2026
MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS BECOME A MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION MAINLY OVER THE
OPEN GULF WATERS TODAY. HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7
PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 10 AM SUNDAY FOR THE OPEN GULF WATERS, WHICH
MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING IF THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MAINTAINS A STRENGTH NEAR 20 KNOTS. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 93 76 91 71 / 10 50 40 20
PENSACOLA 91 79 89 73 / 10 60 80 40
DESTIN 89 80 87 75 / 50 60 90 50
EVERGREEN 92 73 91 71 / 20 40 40 20
WAYNESBORO 95 72 92 70 / 10 70 0 0
CAMDEN 92 72 89 71 / 20 70 10 0
CRESTVIEW 91 75 89 73 / 40 60 70 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY
FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
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