041
FXUS64 KMOB 122334
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
- PATCHY FROST IN UNPROTECTED AREAS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT.
- STRONG MARINE WINDS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
GULF WATERS, WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
OPERATORS.
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
AFTER LAST NIGHTS SEVERE WEATHER EVENT OUR FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO
ANOTHER IMPACTFUL SYSTEM WITH INCREASING BEACH AND MARINE HAZARDS
BEGINNING SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLE TORNADOES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SYNOPSIS...
FOR THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT BY LATE TONIGHT, LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM 37 TO 40 DEGREES INLAND AND FROM 41
TO 45 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE MIDDLE 30S WELL INLAND, PATCHY FROST IN UNPROTECTED AREAS IS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. WE WILL MONITOR THE TREND TO DETERMINE IF A
FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED, BUT AS A PRECAUTION IT IS A GOOD
IDEA TO PROTECT SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS IN VULNERABLE AREAS.
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES FRIDAY
INTO SUNDAY, TEMPS QUICKLY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTH
OVER THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS, AND ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...
WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING OUR FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY WITH AN AMPLE WARM AND MOIST
AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN MIDDLE 60S AND INCREASING MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY VALUES APPROACHING 900 TO 1400J/KG, WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEST SHEAR FOR POSSIBLE ORGANIZED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
EVENTUAL QLCS, AND WE EXPECT AROUND 200-300 M2/S2 OF SFC-3KM SRH
TO BE PRESENT. IN ADDITION, SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BETWEEN 50-60 KTS, WITH MID/UPPER LAPSE RATES APPROACHING 7
C/KM. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANY STORMS WITHIN THE QLCS OR
THE DISCRETE ACTIVITY TO POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. AS ALWAYS, THESE SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY UPWARD OR DOWNWARD
TREND. CURRENTLY THE ANTICIPATED TIMING FOR DISCRETE STORMS WOULD
BE SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA. THE QLCS IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO ENTER
SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR NORTHWESTERN ALABAMA COUNTIES
LATE SUNDAY EVENING AND SPREAD QUICKLY EASTWARD, SIMILAR TO THIS
LAST EVENT.
BEACH FORECAST: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO MODERATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. /22
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX
OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. 07/MB
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE GULF WATERS. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH SEAS TRENDING LOWER. A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SHIFTING TO A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE NEXT COLD FRONT. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 41 72 49 76 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 47 68 52 73 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 49 67 54 73 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 38 73 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 38 71 44 76 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 38 70 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 38 74 43 79 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ633>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-
675.
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