784
FXUS64 KMOB 030700
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
100 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 100 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
- HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL SETS UP THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
- A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK RETURNS FOR THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA
AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE ON FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BY THURSDAY EVENING, WITH A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH NOON THURSDAY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD, WHILE A LOW-
LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE TEXAS COAST INTO SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA. AN IMPRESSIVE RETURN OF PRECIPITABLE WATER (PWAT) WILL
OCCUR AS WE TRANSITION FROM AROUND 0.2 INCH PWAT THIS MORNING UNDER
A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION, TO RANGE FROM 1.5-1.7 INCHES BY
THURSDAY EVENING. SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED AFTER
MIDNIGHT THURSDAY THROUGH NOON FRIDAY AS WE TAP INTO AN ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER EXTENDED OVER THE ENTIRE WESTERN GULF INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES (POPS) FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY REMAIN UNCHANGED. THESE HIGH POPS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ON
SATURDAY AS WELL ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR. THERE
ALSO REMAINS A SIGNAL FOR MODEST PROBABILITIES FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
HEAVY RAIN OVER THIS PERIOD. APPROPRIATELY SO, THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL ON THURSDAY, OUR ENTIRE AREA IS OUTLOOKED ON FRIDAY, AND
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR IS OUTLOOKED ON
SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2.5 TO 3.5 INCHES ARE
FORECAST, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 INCHES POSSIBLE.
WE WILL ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT/WARM SECTOR TO DETERMINE IF A POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR MORE SURFACE BASED CONVECTION AND THE RISK OF STRONG STORMS. THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE AREA NEAR THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A
DRY PERIOD RETURNING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
BEACH FORECAST: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY, AND IS EXPECTED TO
DROP BACK TO LOW OVER THE WEEKEND. /22
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
REGIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ARE DETECTING
SOLID CEILING RANGING FROM 900-1400 FEET OVER THE ENTIRE AREA.
GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION,
THESE CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT BY 15-18Z WEDNESDAY AT THE LATEST. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 100 AM CST WED DEC 3 2025
NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO SMALL CRAFT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK OUTSIDE OF LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS/SEAS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL SHIFT
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
THURSDAY ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS. A SERIES OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGHS AND
SURFACE LOWS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, BRINGING NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 57 42 53 45 / 0 40 90 80
PENSACOLA 58 47 55 50 / 0 30 80 80
DESTIN 59 47 58 51 / 0 20 70 70
EVERGREEN 58 37 53 43 / 0 10 80 80
WAYNESBORO 56 35 48 40 / 0 40 80 90
CAMDEN 53 33 49 40 / 0 10 70 90
CRESTVIEW 59 38 53 45 / 0 10 70 80
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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