850
FXUS64 KMOB 311130
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
- DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH VERY LITTLE HEATING EXPECTED TODAY.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH GUSTS
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 40-45 MPH IN SPOTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.
- HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT OUR LOCAL
MARINE ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE
LIKELY, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW WATER LEVELS IN OUR
BAYS AND SOUNDS, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF A LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY...
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THE
FIRST SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE REGION TONIGHT, USHERING
IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS. WITH MOISTURE RETURN NEGLIGIBLE AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL OFFSHORE AND
LIGHT. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE COLD AIRMASS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH THE FIRST FRONT. WITH STRONG WINDS, WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. THE SECOND
SHOT OF COLD AIR SATURDAY WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TO THE 30S SATURDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS CREEPING INTO
THE 20S OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE SECOND SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL
DROP LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. AN EXCESSIVE COLD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FORECAST AREA INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THESE STRONGER WINDS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
SETTLE SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
IN THE COMING WEEK, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, SHIFTING LOW LEVEL FLOW BACK TO
ONSHORE BY TUESDAY. A MODEST MOISTURE RETURN OCCURS BY MID WEEK
BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
FRONT'S PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES RISE BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, DROPPING BELOW BEHIND. TEMPERATURES MODERATE UPWARDS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH ONSHORE FLOW QUICKLY RETURNING TO
THE FORECAST AREA.
OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST WILL LIMIT ANY SWELL,
KEEPING THE RIP RISK LOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING WEEK.
/16
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT
SUSTAINED NEAR 15 TO 20 KNOTS GUSTING OVER 35 KNOTS TODAY. WINDS
GRADUALLY RELAX SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET TO SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS, STRONGEST NEARER THE COAST. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES. A REINFORCING FRONT PASSES SATURDAY, KEEPING OFFSHORE
FLOW STRONG TO VERY STRONG INTO SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR OPEN GULF WATERS AND MOBILE BAY BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LIKELY TO BE ISSUED FOR PROTECTED WATERS
THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES AREA WATERS LATE SUNDAY
INTO THE COMING WEEK, EASING WINDS OVER AREA WATERS INTO MONDAY,
THEN SHIFTING THEM TO ONSHORE IN THE COMING WEEK.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 37 20 47 25 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 36 22 45 29 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 39 23 45 32 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 34 16 43 21 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 33 18 44 22 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 32 16 40 21 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 36 17 45 23 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ051>060-
261>266.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ALZ051>060-261>264.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR FLZ201>206.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ201-203-205.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MSZ067-075-076-
078-079.
GM...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR GMZ630>636.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST SUNDAY
FOR GMZ630>636.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST SUNDAY FOR GMZ650-655-670-675.
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