393
FXUS64 KMOB 131158
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
658 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
- RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEK. WITH MANY AREAS STILL WITHOUT POWER AND
RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS ONGOING, THESE
TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND, AND WILL LIKELY CREATE HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
THE LATEST NIGHT FOG SATELLITE PRODUCT IS SHOWING AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND SEVERAL MISSISSIPPI DEPARTMENT
OF TRANSPORTATION WEBCAMS ARE CONFIRMING DENSE FOG ACROSS THAT
AREA. IN ADDITION, THE LATEST CAMS ARE SHOWING THIS FOG SPREADING
INTO WAYNE AND MOBILE COUNTIES, AND CONTINUING UNTIL 10 AM.
THEREFORE, UPDATED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO NOW INCLUDE ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI, AND MOBILE COUNTY. THE NPW HAS BEEN SENT
AND NOW INCLUDES AN EXPIRATION TIME OF 10 AM. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS HOLD OVER THE LOCAL
AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH, AS WELL AS
A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE (PWATS BETWEEN 0.7 AND 1.0 INCH) WILL GIVE
WAY TO SUNNY SKIES, VERY WARM HIGHS, AND COOL LOWS THROUGH THE
WEEK. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S (POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW MID 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW OVER
INTERIOR COUNTIES). SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, THESE
TEMPERATURES MAY GET CLOSE TO OUR DAILY RECORD HIGHS OVER THE
COMING DAYS. HERE ARE THE FORECAST HIGHS AND CURRENT RECORDS FOR
TODAY, WEDNESDAY, AND THURSDAY FOR MOBILE AND PENSACOLA:
TUESDAY (10/13):
MOBILE 91, RECORD 92
PENSACOLA 88, RECORD 90
WEDNESDAY (10/14):
MOBILE 89, RECORD 90
PENSACOLA 87, RECORD 89
THURSDAY (10/15):
MOBILE 88, RECORD 89
PENSACOLA 87, RECORD 89
THE GOOD NEWS IS, THAT HEAT INDICES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
50S AND 60S. THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE STILL MANY LOCATIONS
WITHOUT POWER DUE TO HURRICANE ISAIAS. THESE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER TO PROVIDE
RELIEF FROM THE SUN, COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES. EVERYONE PART OF THE RECOVERY PROCESS IS URGED
TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER,
ESPECIALLY IF ENGAGING IN STRENUOUS ACTIVITY. LOWS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INLAND TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS AT NIGHT, CALM WINDS, AND CLEAR SKIES
MAY HELP TO PROMOTE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EACH MORNING THIS WEEK.
BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, UPPER TROUGHING IS
EXPECTED TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST US. AS THIS OCCURS, AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP
RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST AS IT PUSHES THROUGH. BEHIND IT, A MUCH
COOLER AND EVEN DRIER AIRMASS FILTERS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 70S
ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S OVER OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES TO THE LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD START TO MODERATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT RCMOS PROBABILISTIC DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE RIP CURRENT RISK
MAY INCREASE TO A MODERATE RISK SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AND EVENTUALLY
A HIGH RISK BY SATURDAY NIGHT. /96
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI ARE SPREADING
EASTWARD INTO MOBILE COUNTY, WITH PATCHY FOG ELSEWHERE. THE KMOB
TAF NOW INCLUDES VLIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT WE DO EXPECT DENSE FOG TO
REDEVELOP ACROSS THIS SAME AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF A SEA BREEZE. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, WITH GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE POSSIBLE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OR POSSIBLY A GALE WARNING
MAY BECOME NECESSARY STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT. UNTIL THEN, A DIURNAL
FLOW CYCLE WILL OCCUR THROUGH FRIDAY WITH AN OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING LATE EACH NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS THEN BECOMING
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. /22
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 91 61 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 88 67 87 67 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 86 69 86 70 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 93 58 92 59 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 93 59 92 59 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 92 58 92 59 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 90 59 90 60 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALZ261-263-
265.
FL...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MSZ067-075-
076-078-079.
GM...NONE.
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