354
FXUS64 KMOB 211141
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
641 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
- TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR COASTAL ZONES AND NEARSHORE WATERS
OF ALABAMA AND ALL OFFSHORE WATERS. TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR COASTAL ZONES AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF FLORIDA.
STORM SURGE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL ALABAMA. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
- DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA BEACHES THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
SURF WARNING IN EFFECT STARTING TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ALONG ALL BEACHES.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI UNTIL 7 PM
TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
BANDS OF RAIN SWIRLING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF BERTHA ARE
APPROACHING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT SUNRISE. THESE WILL MOVE
ONSHORE TODAY, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 84 AS BERTHA MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST. NEARBY DRY AIR AND WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO HELP LIMIT BERTHA'S STRENGTHENING. LOOKING AT
THE GRIDS, GREATEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND NEAR THE
COAST. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
/16
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR OUR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES FOR
HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 108. THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR AREA WILL HAVE
MORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ALLOWING FOR SLIGHTLY LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. ANYBODY OUTDOORS SHOULD DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER AND TAKE BREAKS IN A/C WHEN POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH MID WEEK IS THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHEAST OF
MOBILE THAT HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM BERTHA WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. IT IS CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWEST AT 2 MPH
AND EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST WITH THE CENTER STAYING IN OUR COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL ZONES AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF
ALABAMA AND ALL OFFSHORE WATERS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR COASTAL ZONES AND NEARSHORE WATERS OF FLORIDA. OUR MAIN IMPACTS
WITH BERTHA WILL BE FOR COUNTIES JUST ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
WITH GUSTY WINDS, INCREASING WAVE HEIGHTS, AND AN INCREASED RIP
CURRENT RISK.
STORM SURGE INUNDATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POTENTIALLY
THURSDAY MORNING WHERE HIGH TIDE COMBINES WITH PERSISTENT AND
INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW. WE HAVE A STORM SURGE WATCH FOR COASTAL
ALABAMA WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 2-4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE, FOR NOW SOME MINOR INUNDATION COULD
OCCUR FOR ESPECIALLY FOR VULNERABLE LOW AREAS AND TYPICAL TROUBLE
SPOTS LIKE DAUPHIN ISLAND AND FORT PICKENS.
WIDESPREAD FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM WITH STORM TOTALS OF 1-2" WITH LOCALIZED AREAS RECEIVING UP
TO 4". WPC HAS AREAS JUST ALONG THE COAST OUTLOOKED FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL WITH A MARGINAL RISKS RUNNING THROUGH THURSDAY. MUCH OF THE
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CENTER OFF THE COAST IN OUR AREA.
INCREASING SHEAR AND DRY AIR TO THE NORTHWEST KEEPS MOST OF THE
RAINFALL FOOTPRINT SOUTH OF THE CENTER. IF THE CENTER SHIFTS CLOSER
TO SHORE WE COULD SEE MORE RAINFALL, BUT THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS
UNLIKELY. GENERALLY SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS STORMS ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE. OUR MOISTURE CONTENT HAS INCREASED AND ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW
PWATS OF 2.2-2.4" THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS INTRODUCES ENHANCED RAIN
RATES WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS, BUT MOST
OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.
AFTER BERTHA DEPARTS TO THE WEST, WE ARE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE UNDER GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. THIS BRINGS RAIN CHANCES TO A MORE NORMAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND
RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
..BEACH FORECAST
DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS NOW A HIGH FOR OUR FLORIDA AND
ALABAMA BEACHES AND WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. GUIDANCE
SHOWS INCREASING SURF ABOVE 5 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING AND QUICKLY
RISES THROUGH THE EVENING TO PEAK AT 10 AND POTENTIALLY UP TO 12
FEET BY TUESDAY EVENING. A HIGH SURF WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
COASTAL AREAS FOR SURF HEIGHTS UP TO 11 FEET BEGINNING TUESDAY
MORNING FOR FLORIDA BEACHES AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALABAMA
BEACHES.
SS/97
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
EFFECTS OF BERTHA PASSING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM LOW END MVFR WITH
STRONG WINDS OVER OUR COASTAL CONTINUES TO VFR ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10,
WITH STRONG EASTERLY WINDS, TAPERING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 84. TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED BY BERTHA'S
PASSING.
/16
MARINE
ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2026
TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF MOBILE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH. THE SYSTEM WILL
GRADUALLY TURN WEST AND MOVE ALONG THE COAST IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL IMPACT THE GULF
WATERS TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAVES WITH THIS
SYSTEM PEAK AT 10 TO 15 FEET TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SS/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 93 76 93 77 / 40 40 60 50
PENSACOLA 89 78 90 79 / 70 70 50 50
DESTIN 87 80 89 80 / 90 70 50 50
EVERGREEN 91 74 92 74 / 50 20 40 20
WAYNESBORO 96 75 96 76 / 0 10 20 20
CAMDEN 92 75 93 75 / 20 20 20 20
CRESTVIEW 89 75 91 76 / 80 60 60 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ALZ265-266.
STORM SURGE WATCH FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH SURF WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CDT THURSDAY
FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ067-075-076-078-
079.
GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ630>633-650-670-675.
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GMZ634>636-655.
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