143
FXUS64 KMOB 182342
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
642 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREA BEACHES
ON TUESDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
FORECAST ON TRACK. MM/25
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH
TUESDAY THEN WEAKENS GOING INTO THURSDAY BEFORE REBUILDING LATE
THIS WEEKEND. A LARGE UPPER TROF PATTERN LOCATED MOSTLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS EVENTUALLY PROGRESSES MOSTLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR EASTERN STATES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, AND IN THE PROCESS
MAINTAINS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
AREA MEANWHILE, WHICH ALONG WITH A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING EACH DAY WILL LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THAT
SAID, SUBSIDENCE EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY UPPER RIDGE
ARE ANTICIPATED TO MAKE FOR A MAINLY DRY DAY ON TUESDAY, THEN
GOING INTO FRIDAY TEND TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, THEN FOR THURSDAY
WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-65.
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED TO REBUILD GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND, IT ALSO BECOMES ORIENTED MAINLY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. PREDOMINATELY LIKELY POPS RETURN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHILE FURTHER TO THE
EAST POPS GRADUALLY TREND TO CHANCE POPS. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LOCALIZED THICK FOG. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN A HIGH RISK FOLLOWS FOR TUESDAY. A
MODERATE RISK IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A LOW RISK FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. /29
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
VFR FLIGHT CATEGORY GENERALLY PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME
SPOTS NEARER THE COAST STILL DEALING WITH A BROKEN MVFR CEILING
FROM A CUMULUS FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. VFR
FLIGHT CATEGORY SHOULD RETURN FOR ALL AREAS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET UNTIL WE SEE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THESE SHOULD LIFT FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER
DAYBREAK, WITH MOST LOCATIONS RETURNING BACK TO VFR BY MID
MORNING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY, RELAXING TO BELOW 5 KNOTS DURING THE
NIGHT TONIGHT. MM/25
MARINE
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY THROUGH TONIGHT THEN
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. /29
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 87 70 87 / 0 0 0 10
PENSACOLA 72 84 72 85 / 10 0 0 10
DESTIN 71 83 71 84 / 0 0 0 10
EVERGREEN 66 91 67 90 / 10 20 10 30
WAYNESBORO 71 90 70 89 / 0 10 10 30
CAMDEN 68 89 69 88 / 0 0 10 30
CRESTVIEW 66 91 67 91 / 10 20 0 30
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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