096
FXUS64 KMOB 282335
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
- ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE
GREATEST HAZARD WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
- HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PEAK HEAT
INDICES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 95-100 THIS WEEKEND, INCREASING
TO AROUND 103-110 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. /22
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT TO
THE NORTHEAST, LEAVING THE AREA IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS REVEALING THE PRESENCE OF
A WEAK SURFACE LOW THAT IS NEARLY STATIONARY OVER OUR MARINE
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS LOW LIKELY PROVIDED ENOUGH VORTICITY
FOR AT LEAST ONE NOTABLE WATERSPOUT JUST OFF THE COAST THIS
MORNING. TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH THIS
FEATURE DUE TO DRY AIR AND WIND SHEAR.
A BAND OF TROPICAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG AND JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. GIVEN PWATS AROUND 2.2 INCHES
EAST OF I-65, THIS ACTIVITY MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
DUE TO HIGH RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 3 IN/HR. WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT LOW, BUT SOME BRIEF
GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FARTHER NORTHWEST, A DRIER
AIRMASS FILTERING IN ALOFT SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES UNDER 20%.
RESIDUAL DRY AIR ON SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO
AROUND 30-40% OVER THE INTERIOR, WITH POPS REMAINING BELOW 20%
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE WEAK OFFSHORE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MIGRATE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE DRAWING A DEEPLY MOIST TROPICAL
AIRMASS BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE INFLUX
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW SHOULD BRING A FEW
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO COASTAL AREAS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 60-80% RANGE
ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY, WITH THE INTERIOR REMAINING SOMEWHAT
DRIER. REFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PWATS APPROACHING 2.2 INCHES AGAIN,
SO ANY SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE, AND ANY ROBUST
UPDRAFTS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
WATERSPOUTS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS, ESTABLISHING A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE AREA. TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD MAINTAIN
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY ALONG THE INLAND-PROPAGATING SEA BREEZE.
A BIT LESS CLOUD COVER WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK
INTO THE 90S AREAWIDE. COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY, HEAT INDICES
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 103-110 BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK, BUT THIS MAY BE REDUCED SOME IN LATER FORECASTS.
AT THE BEACHES, THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS INCREASED TO MODERATE
FOR SUNDAY DUE TO BUILDING ONSHORE FLOW. HOWEVER, THE RISK MAY
INCREASE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, A LOW RISK IS
FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT THIS IS
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. JGC/98
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF
BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITES DUE TO A FEW PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. /22
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2026
MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. A MODERATE (10-20 KNOT) EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
WILL DEVELOP FOR THE WEEKEND, BECOMING A LIGHTER SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK, LIGHT WINDS
WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE, WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT
NIGHT AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW DURING THE DAY. NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BECOMING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. JGC/98
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 72 89 72 88 / 10 30 50 70
PENSACOLA 74 87 75 87 / 40 40 70 60
DESTIN 75 85 75 88 / 60 60 60 70
EVERGREEN 69 91 69 90 / 20 30 20 40
WAYNESBORO 70 94 71 91 / 10 20 10 50
CAMDEN 70 91 71 90 / 20 40 20 20
CRESTVIEW 69 88 70 90 / 20 40 30 60
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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