025
FXUS64 KMOB 142325
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
625 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH LATE WEEK. WITH MANY AREAS STILL WITHOUT POWER AND
RECOVERY EFFORTS FROM HURRICANE ISAIAS ONGOING, THESE
TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESSES.
- STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE MARINE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, BECOMING EASTERLY AND LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. GALE
FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH CONDITIONS POSING A HAZARD
TO SMALL CRAFT.
- A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS RETURN TO AREA BEACHES OVER
THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES PLANNED AT THE MOMENT.
/29
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER OVER THE SOUTHEAST
GETS AN EASTWARD SHOVE THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
FROM OVER THE PLAINS TO OFF THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MID DAY FRIDAY
AND MOVING SOUTH OF THE COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING, AND SOUTH OF AREA
WATERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH A DISTINCT LACK OF MOISTURE WITH
THE STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, A TEMPORARY
INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS THE MOST THAT IS EXPECTED, WEATHER WISE.
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH MID TO UPPER 80S, PLUS A FEW 90S POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S FOR SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S(UPPER 60S
ALONG THE COAST) DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY ON, AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER,
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTHWEST ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THE
FORECAST REMAINS DRY, WITH MINIMAL MOISTURE RETURN TO COUNTERACT THE
POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS THAT HAS MOVED OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES RISE BACK TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS IN THE COMING WEEK.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE RIP CURRENT RISK ON AREA BEACHES, A LOW RISK IS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WEEK. AS STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP OVER
THE WEEKEND, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS RETURNS SUNDAY ON.
/16
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHILE GUIDANCE INDICATES DECREASED PROBABILITIES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA TONIGHT, AM LEANING TOWARDS PERSISTENCE WITH THIS
ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE, DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO EXTREME
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA. SOME PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REMAINING INTERIOR AREAS. CALM OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TONIGHT TRANSITION TO A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 5 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY. /29
MARINE
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
A LIGHT, DIURNALLY VARIABLE, THE REST OF THE WEEK BECOMES
A STRONG TO VERY STRONG EASTERLY FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE COMING
WEEK WILL SHIFT WINDS TO EASTERLY, WHILST REMAINING STRONG,
ESPECIALLY OVER OPEN GULF WATERS.
/16
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 66 87 67 85 / 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 68 85 68 85 / 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 69 84 68 83 / 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 61 90 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 60 90 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 61 89 63 87 / 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 63 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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