174
FXUS64 KMOB 072334
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
634 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
- HEAT INDICES REMAIN IN THE 100 TO 107 RANGE EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS FOR FLORIDA BEACHES
THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR ALL AREA BEACHES FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 127 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
A WEAK, POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER TROUGH WITH A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY, YIELDING A WEAK ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BY LATE
WEEK. SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE, WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES, AND
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON, FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALONG SEA
BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE LATE AT NIGHT NEAR THE LAND BREEZE. ANY STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING, AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LARGE-SCALE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE
AREA BY THE SUNDAY-MONDAY TIMEFRAME. MOISTURE POOLING AND ENHANCED
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED STORM COVERAGE DURING THAT PERIOD. TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR ANY STRONG STORM AND/OR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. OVERNIGHT
CONDITIONS OFFER LITTLE RELIEF WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND AND
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN
THE 100-107 RANGE ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE CHANCE OF A FEW LOCALIZED
SPOTS BRIEFLY REACHING 108 DEGREES. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUES TODAY FOR FLORIDA BEACHES BEFORE DECREASING TO A LOW RISK
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RISK THE INCREASES TO MODERATE ON
FRIDAY FOR ALL AREA BEACHES, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. JGC/98
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
A FEW TO PERHAPS ISOLATED EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE. THE OCCURRENCE OF THESE LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF SOME RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE BLOW OFF OF
GENERALLY HIGH BASED CLOUDS, CIGS/VSBY OK AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SO THIS EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL OF PRE-DAWN SHRA/TSRA NEAR THE
COAST BUT THESE LOOK TO BE CLOSER TO JKA WHERE THERE'S A PROB30
GROUP FOR THESE. FORECAST FOR OTHER TERMINALS WILL CONSIDER A
PRIMARILY SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
SHRA/TSRA WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE REDUCTIONS TO MVFR CIG/BASES IN
TSRA. /10
MARINE
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
A LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH LATE WEEK, BECOMING SOUTHERLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SEAS
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY, BUILDING TO 2
TO 3 FEET BY THE WEEKEND. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO BE HIGHER IN
AND AROUND STORMS. SS/97
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 75 94 76 92 / 20 30 10 30
PENSACOLA 80 94 80 92 / 20 30 20 30
DESTIN 81 92 81 91 / 30 20 30 30
EVERGREEN 73 95 74 93 / 20 20 20 40
WAYNESBORO 73 94 73 94 / 20 40 20 30
CAMDEN 73 93 74 92 / 20 20 20 40
CRESTVIEW 75 96 76 94 / 20 30 10 40
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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