355  
FXUS64 KMOB 221236  
AFDMOB  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL  
736 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019  
   
DISCUSSION
 
UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
22/12Z ISSUANCE...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS MORNING BUT  
A FEW NORTHWARD MOVING RAINSHOWERS BRINGING LOCAL MVFR CIGS TO  
COASTAL AL/MS AREAS. GREATER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER  
INLAND AREAS LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,  
WITH SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM  
EXPECTED WITH BRIEF, LOCALIZED AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SEE SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMING MORE  
ISOLATED, BUT LATE TONIGHT WILL AGAIN SEE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE  
COAST AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES  
FROM THE NORTH. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS, GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR  
LESS, WILL PREVAIL, EXCEPT BRIEFLY BECOMING STRONGER AND MORE  
VARIABLE IN AND NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 12/DS  
 

 
   
PREV DISCUSSION
 
/ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019/  
 
NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...EXPECT THE BEGINNINGS OF  
A CHANGING WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. A MID TO  
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE DIGGING SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTIONS  
OF THE COUNTRY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, THE SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE  
PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT  
AS A COLD FRONT GETS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHES THE  
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT. FOR  
TODAY, THE HI-RES CAM'S ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH  
CONVECTION INITIALLY DEVELOPING NEAR THE COAST, FIRST FROM MOBILE  
BAY WESTWARD AND THEN DEVELOPING EASTWARD AND BECOMING MORE  
NUMEROUS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THIS IS VERIFYING AT THIS  
TIME, AS WE HAVE HAD SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER MOBILE BAY AND  
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT THIS  
ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM  
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, WHERE WE WILL CARRY LIKELY  
POPS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR INTERIOR ZONES. BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO  
EARLY EVENING, MODEL TRENDS INDICATE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE  
ACTIVITY WILL BE ENDING BEFORE PICKING BACK UP LATE IN THE NIGHT,  
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST WHERE MARINE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL  
AGAIN BE DEVELOPING AND ALSO OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE  
APPROACHING FRONT WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT FOR INITIATION OF SOME  
SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WELL. WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE VERY LOW ACROSS THE AREA, SOME OF THE  
STRONGER STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BRIEF STRONG GUSTY  
WINDS. IN ADDITION, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS,  
THE STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW MOVERS SO LOCALIZED HEAVY  
RAINFALL AND MINOR FLOODING OR PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND POOR  
DRAINAGE AREAS WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY. HIGHS TODAY SIMILAR TO  
YESTERDAY, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS THE  
AREA. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER INLAND  
AREAS TO MID AND UPPER 70S NEAR AND ALONG THE COAST. 12/DS  
 
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED  
ATYPICAL UPPER AIR PATTERN EVOLVES THIS PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO  
CLIMATOLOGY. AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP EASTERN US TROF WITH H50 MASS  
FIELDS ALONG ITS AXIS SOME 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE  
MEAN SETS UP WHILE A DEEP RIDGE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE FOUR-  
CORNERS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONSIDERING WE ARE MOVING INTO  
THE LATTER END OF JULY, THE UPPER TROF ALLOWS AN UNUSUAL, WELL  
DEFINED SURFACE FRONT TO SURGE SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST  
BY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY. THE FRONT SERVES AS A FOCUS FOR  
ENHANCED LIFT AS IT POOLS A ZONE OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTH  
OF SOUTHWARD ADVANCING FRONTAL CIRCULATION. THUS, CATEGORICAL  
POPS AT OR ABOVE 80% FOR TUESDAY. WILL ALSO BE WATCHING FOR THE  
POTENTIAL OF A FEW STRONG STORMS TUESDAY. THE FRONT MAKES STEADY  
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND  
BEGINS TO SLOW/STALL FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST TO THE LOWER  
TX COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES TO REFLECT A  
LOWERING TREND FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO  
RAIN EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-65 AND PROBABILITIES  
LOWERING TO A RANGE OF 20-40% SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE. BY  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CHANCES LOOK TO BECOME MORE CONFINED OUT OVER  
THE COASTAL WATERS.  
 
WITH INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AND THICKENING CLOUDS TUESDAY,  
HIGHS ONLY RANGE FROM 83 TO 87. WITH THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA  
BY WEDNESDAY, SIMILAR HIGHS EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO TREND  
COOLEST OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES WITH NUMBERS EXPECTED TO BE  
CLOSER TO 65. ELSEWHERE, LOWS RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG  
THE I-65 CORRIDOR TO MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. /10  
 
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS  
EXTENDS FROM THE APPALACHIANS TO SOUTHEAST LA, WHILE SURFACE FRONT  
OUT OVER THE GULF BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY/WEAKENS TO CLOSE OUT  
THE WEEK. DEEPEST MOISTURE STREAMS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER  
GULF WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING ON THE LOW SIDE THURSDAY. GULF  
MOISTURE MAY CREEP NORTHWARD INTO FRIDAY BRINGING A RETURN TO A  
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW STORMS FOR AT LEAST THE  
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. INTO THE WEEKEND, A FLAT MID-  
LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GULF WHILE TROF  
AXIS, ALTHOUGH NOT AS WELL PRONOUNCED, REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE  
DEEP SOUTH. MID-LEVEL IMPULSES RIDING EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN  
PERIPHERY OF THE GULF RIDGE/BASE OF DEEP SOUTH TROF AXIS FAVORS A  
MODEST POP SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS GRADUALLY MODIFY  
INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GRADUALLY MODERATE  
AS WELL. /10  
 
MARINE...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN GULF  
OF MEXICO TODAY WILL BE WEAKENING TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO  
THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA FROM THE NORTH.  
THIS COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE MARINE AREA  
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE  
CENTRAL GULF MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE  
SLIGHTLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH  
THE FRONT BEING IN THE VICINITY, BUT NOT SIGNIFICANTLY. SCATTERED  
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR  
MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT REMAINING IN THE VICINITY. 12/DS  
 

 
   
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
AL...NONE.  
FL...NONE.  
MS...NONE.  
GM...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:  
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MOB  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab AL Page
The Nexlab FL Page
The Nexlab MS Page Main Text Page