188
FXUS64 KMOB 271720
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1220 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 641 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
FRIDAY, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THIS WEEKEND. STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
HEAVY RAIN, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
- SUMMER CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT
AT AROUND 98-103 DEGREES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCREASING TO
AROUND 103-110 DEGREES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE
SOUTHERN BASE NOW REACHING THE NORTHEASTERN GULF ALONG WITH PWATS
AROUND 2.1" WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE GENERALIZED WIDESPREAD LOWER-LEVEL PRESSURE
ACROSS THE REGION UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH NO DISCERNIBLE
DOMINATE FEATURES AS THE MODELS VARY GREATLY AS TO WHERE A
POTENTIAL WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY SET UP. EVENTUALLY THE TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY SATURDAY, ALLOWING AN UPPER
RIDGE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND AND BRING A
SLIGHT LOWERING OF RAIN CHANCES, BUT WE ARE STILL FORECASTING A
DAILY OCCURRING OF MAINLY SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE THEN POISED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE MAIN THREAT OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA OR IF RAINFALL
RATES ARE HIGH ENOUGH, SOME FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) HAS OUR AREA OUTLOOKED FOR A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESBORO, MS TO CRESTVIEW, FL, AND A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ACROSS ALL OF OUR CWA ZONES ON
FRIDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL (AROUND 90 DEGREES) THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE INCREASING TO ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LOWS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST, RANGING FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES INLAND
TO AROUND 75 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
BEACH FORECAST: A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE MONTH. /22
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
TODAY'S FORECAST IS A BIT LOW CONFIDENCE AS SEVERAL DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THE REGION. EARLIER STORMS HAVE PUSHED EAST OF OUR
SOUTHERN SITES, WITH LOW CLOUDS MOVING NEAR KMOB AND KBFM. BASED
ON LATEST TRENDS, THE LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY NOT TO MAKE IT FURTHER
EAST AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEARING KPNS AND KJKA AND THESE MAY
PUSH ONSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. I'M SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE IN
KJKA AND KPNS SEEING TSRA SO HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THE
AFTERNOON. AT KMOB AND KBFM, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER SO A PROB30 GROUP
WAS INCLUDED. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, BUT
THESE WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY. /73
MARINE
ISSUED AT 158 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT,
BECOMING MORE VARIABLE FOR FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY FOR
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS AND WINDS NEAR
STORMS. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 71 88 71 89 / 50 50 20 40
PENSACOLA 74 87 74 87 / 50 60 40 50
DESTIN 75 86 75 87 / 50 70 30 40
EVERGREEN 70 89 69 90 / 50 60 20 40
WAYNESBORO 71 92 69 93 / 40 40 10 20
CAMDEN 71 89 70 90 / 50 50 10 20
CRESTVIEW 70 88 69 89 / 40 70 20 50
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
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