064
FXUS65 KBYZ 052036
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
236 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO WYOMING.
FOR THE LATEST AIR QUALITY, VISIT AIRNOW.GOV.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS...
IN TRUE SUMMERTIME FASHION WE CONTINUE TO HAVE OUR WEATHER
DOMINATED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
THIS IS COMPETING WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL HUDSON BAY LOW WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK DISTURBANCES TO RIDE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE OF
THESE TWO JUST TO THE EAST OF US. ONE OF THESE WEAK FEATURES IS
PASSING TO OUR EAST NOW WHICH IS DRY BUT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT
OF A A MORE NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE CWA.
BEHIND THIS FROPA THERE COULD BE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONCENTRATION
OF WILDFIRE SMOKE AT THE SURFACE, BUT NOTHING OF ANY CONCERN.
TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB ACROSS THE REGION
WHERE MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S. ADDITIONALLY, THE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL BE QUITE LIMITED RESULTING IN MIN RH
VALUES IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL CREATE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REGION-WIDE. THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL OF YET
ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WITH THIS FROPA COULD
GUST UP TO 30 MPH IN THE PLAINS CREATING LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. DUE TO THIS BRIEF WINDOW OF CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER, THERE IS A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11AM THROUGH
8PM THURSDAY INCLUDING MILES CITY AND BAKER.
THE STEADY UPWARD CLIMB OF TEMPERATURES CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLES HAVE STARTED TO BACK OFF ON THE TEMPERATURES FOR THE
ENTIRE WEEKEND THROUGH RESULTING IN HIGHS SATURDAY TOPPING OUT IN
THE UPPER 90S FOR MOST; WHEREAS THE FORECAST PREVIOUSLY LOOKED
LIKE WIDESPREAD LOW 100S. EVEN IF WHAT THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP
ON, MOST LIKELY THE REPEATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY, DOES NOT VERIFY,
IT STILL DOES LOOK LIKELY THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 100
FOR MANY. IF THE RIDGE DOES BUILD BACK IN SLIGHTLY THIS WOULD
RESULT IN DOMINANT WESTERLY WINDS THROUG MUCH OF THE COLUMN WHICH
WOULD ADVECT WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE PNW OVER THE CWA WHICH WOULD
KEEP TEMPS DOWN, EVEN WITH JUST A MODERATE CONCENTRATION OF
VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE.
SPEAKING OF THIS SMOKE IT DOES LOOK LIKE THAT MUCH OF OUR AREA
WILL BE SPARED OF ANY HIGH CONCENTRATIONS AT THE SURFACE DUE TO
THE WEAKER, AND MORE WEST CENTERED, RIDGE. THIS WOULD SCENARIO
WOULD LIKELY RESULT IN EASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE
SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH CENTERED TO THE WEST IN ADDITION TO SIMPLE
DAYTIME UPSLOPE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. IF THE STRONGER RIDGE
SCENARIO WINDS OUT AND MORE SMOKE IS ADVECTED OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND, IT WOULD THEN BE HARDER FOR THERE TO BE ANY MEANINGFUL
SUBSIDENCE, IN THEORY KEEPING THE SMOKE ALOFT. REGARDLESS, WITH
THI MUCH SMOKE OVER THE THE NW CONUS BRIEF PERIODS OF BAD AIR
QUALITY ARE ALWAYS POSSIBLE.
ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND IS STIL
MINOR QUESTION, MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER OUR AREA FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, HAZY
SKIES, DRY CONDITIONS, AND A POTENTIAL RETURN OF WEAK MONSOONAL
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LACK OF AGREEMENT HOW THINGS SHAPE
UP FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK, THERE IS A SIGNAL IN MOST
MODELS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND POTENTIALLY GIVES US SOME ACTIVE
WEATHER. WMR
AVIATION
SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE, AFFECTING SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY FOR KLVM. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR KLVM TO SEE
REDUCED VISIBILITY DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SMOKE
EASTWARD THURSDAY, BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/092 059/094 062/098 064/095 062/091 065/092 065/090
00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B
LVM 050/092 052/096 056/096 057/094 055/092 056/092 056/090
00/K 00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U
HDN 053/094 057/096 059/099 061/096 060/093 061/094 061/092
00/K 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 11/U 22/T
MLS 055/093 058/093 059/095 062/094 060/090 064/092 063/090
00/K 00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 12/T 22/T
4BQ 057/093 059/095 062/097 064/095 062/090 065/091 064/089
00/K 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 22/T 33/T
BHK 054/092 054/090 057/093 058/092 056/087 058/088 058/087
00/K 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 22/T 33/T
SHR 052/092 054/095 058/098 059/095 057/092 060/092 059/090
00/K 00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 13/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY
FOR ZONES 132-133.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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