159
FXUS65 KBYZ 251843
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1243 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A
PERSISTENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW WILL BRING A 20-50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY, ALLOWING HIGHS TO INCREASE FROM LOW 80S TODAY TO LOW TO
MID 90S THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
TO PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY FOR ISOLATED (10-40% CHANCE) AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY, A
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND 130-160% OF NORMAL) WILL
ALLOW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30-60% CHANCE) TO
DEVELOP. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AS SOME AREAS MAY SEE CAPE VALUES AROUND
800-1200 J/KG AND SHEAR AROUND 30-45 KTS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, BRINGING INCREASED MOISTURE (PWATS AROUND
150-180% OF NORMAL) AND AN INCREASED CHANCE (40-70%) FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING COOLING
TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS DECREASING TO UPPER 70S TO MID 80S BY
SATURDAY.
ON SUNDAY, THE TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND THE INCREASED
MOISTURE IS CUT OFF. ANOTHER SYSTEM JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL
SEND OCCASIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE FLOW, ALLOWING A LOW
CHANCE (10-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ARCHER
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
OVER/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 18Z AND 02Z. EXPECT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS TO REMAIN DRY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL REDUCE SMOKE
CONCENTRATIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY. BT/PM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/090 062/095 064/091 063/085 057/081 054/084 058/085
00/B 11/U 31/B 22/W 32/W 10/U 11/B
LVM 051/089 052/091 053/087 051/080 045/078 042/081 045/081
11/U 23/T 52/T 33/T 22/T 01/U 22/T
HDN 054/092 059/096 061/094 061/088 054/083 050/087 054/088
00/U 00/U 31/B 12/W 21/B 10/U 01/B
MLS 054/087 060/094 067/094 065/087 058/081 052/084 056/087
00/U 00/U 10/B 21/B 32/W 20/U 01/U
4BQ 055/088 061/093 066/093 065/087 058/083 053/086 058/087
00/U 00/U 10/B 21/B 21/U 21/U 11/B
BHK 048/086 052/092 060/094 060/088 053/083 047/084 051/086
00/U 00/U 21/B 12/T 32/T 21/U 12/W
SHR 052/087 055/092 059/090 058/084 052/082 048/084 051/085
01/B 10/U 11/B 12/T 11/U 10/U 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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