667
FXUS65 KBYZ 130654
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1254 AM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT STILL HOT TO START THE WORK WEEK. EXTREME
HEAT WARNING EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN
WY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND FAR SOUTHEAST MT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE A LOW LEVEL JET IS IN PLACE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY, RELATIVE
TO YESTERDAY, BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES, WARMEST OVER THE EAST.
WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND A LITTLE COOLER HEADING INTO MID WEEK AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST, THE EASTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
HOT TEMPERATURES. VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE CONTINUE IN FAR EASTERN MONTANA
AND SHERIDAN COUNTY, WY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING
CONTINUES TODAY FOR ALL AREAS, CONTINUING FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROLONGED HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH HINTS OF OCCASIONAL WEAK IMPULSES IN THE
MEAN FLOW. AT A MINIMUM, THIS LOOKS TO BRING AN INCREASE IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF DAILY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA, GREATEST OVER WESTERN AREAS.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG HIGH PWATS, REACHING UP TO 1.50 INCHES
IN THE AREA FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. SO ANY DECENT IMPULSE IN THE
MONSOONAL FLOW MAY RESULT IN STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER IN OUR EAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGES) DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET AND SLOW RH RECOVERY AS THE WEAK
FRONT SLIDES OVER THE AREA. TAKE CARE NOT TO CAUSE A SPARK.
STP
AVIATION
ISSUED 06Z. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KSHR ~10Z AND KMLS ~13Z, STALLING
BEFORE IT REACHES KBHK. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-25KT WIND
GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. PRIOR TO THE FRONT, SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET WINDS WILL GUST 25-40KTS...AN IMPACT AT KMLS UNTIL AROUND 09Z.
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NE-E
WITH 15-25KT GUSTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ISOLATED HIGH-
BASED T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST, POSSIBLY IMPACTING
KLVM-K6S0-KHWQ (BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME). STORMS COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-50KTS. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 099 070/100 071/094 066/092 066/095 067/094 066/092
0/U 00/U 34/T 63/T 40/U 21/U 21/U
LVM 097 060/096 061/091 057/090 058/094 059/092 059/091
1/U 12/T 48/T 75/T 42/T 22/T 32/T
HDN 100 068/102 069/097 065/094 065/096 066/095 064/093
0/U 00/G 21/U 53/T 41/B 21/U 21/U
MLS 101 071/104 073/101 069/095 068/097 068/096 067/093
0/G 00/G 10/G 11/B 21/B 21/U 11/U
4BQ 101 069/104 074/101 070/094 068/096 069/094 067/092
0/G 00/G 00/G 11/U 21/B 21/U 21/U
BHK 104 066/103 070/102 067/094 063/095 063/094 062/091
0/G 00/G 00/G 00/U 21/U 21/U 11/U
SHR 099 063/102 065/097 062/092 061/094 062/093 061/091
0/U 00/G 01/U 35/T 42/T 13/T 23/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 29-34-40-42-56-63>66-141-170-172-228.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES
30-31-57-138-139-169-173-235.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37-58.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR ZONES 129>133.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 199.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING
FOR ZONE 274.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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