410
FXUS65 KBYZ 050728
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
128 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS.
HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90S.
- SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW, BUT HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE.
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR HOT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, COURTESY OF WEAK TROFFING
OFF THE CA COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS
BY 2-3 PM, THEN DRIFT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE EVENING.
AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE
WELL-MIXED AND DRY, RESULTING IN HIGH CLOUD BASES. THUS, A
FAVORABLE SET UP FOR CONVECTION TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS (55-65 MPH). CAM'S SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS ACROSS THE NW SECTION OF OUR CWA (MUSSELSHELL TO THE
CRAZIES/PARK COUNTY) WITH THE CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIP ABOUT
25-50%. THE CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST IN THE
EVENING IMPACTING MAINLY THE PLAINS OF CENTRAL MONTANA IN THE MID
TO LATE EVENING HOURS.
BEHIND TOMORROW'S WAVE WILL BE A PUSH OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. COOLER AIR DROPPING IN ACROSS THE
REGION WILL DROP TEMPS BACK DOWN TO THE 80S FOR MONDAY & TUESDAY.
A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER
PWATS (OVER AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE AREA) WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS ON THESE DAYS. WHILE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS
WILL REMAIN LOW, THE HIGHER PWATS SUGGEST A RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AREAS IN OUR NORTH AND EAST ARE LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
T-STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY, BUT THE MODELS
ARE TRENDING THINGS DRIER AND WARMER, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN EARLIER IN THE WORK WEEK. LOOK FOR
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ON THESE DAYS. FRIDAY HAS
TRENDED MOSTLY DRY NOW AS WE TRANSITION INTO A RIDGE BUILDING
PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A POWERFUL
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, AND
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING 700MB TEMPS PUSHING 17-20C. THIS WOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP
ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION AS WELL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN DRIER LOW
LEVELS. IF HEIGHTS BUILD THAT HIGH WITH 700MB TEMPS APPROACHING
20C, WE NOT ONLY WOULD SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT, BUT HIGH TEMPS MAY
BE ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 105F. THE HEAT MAY ALSO LAST A FEW DAYS
(THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DURATION). THE CURRENT
PROBABILITY FOR HIGHS OF AT LEAST 100F NEXT WEEKEND IS 33% AT
BILLINGS AND 30-50% TO THE EAST. EXTREME HEAT IMPACTS ARE THUS
POSSIBLE, AS WELL AS THE RISK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS STARTING
TO RAMP UP SHOULD WE GET ANY RIDGE CRASHERS. BT
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE REGION AFTER 21Z
AND EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 06Z MONDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTIONS
ARE NOT LIKELY. WIND GUSTS NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER (KBHK,K97M)
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 095 063/084 063/086 061/091 063/089 063/092 066/100
2/T 43/B 62/T 33/T 31/U 10/U 00/U
LVM 092 055/081 054/085 054/089 055/087 055/091 059/097
3/T 34/T 65/T 42/T 31/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 096 062/088 063/087 059/091 060/090 060/095 064/101
1/U 23/B 72/T 21/U 31/U 10/U 00/G
MLS 097 065/087 063/082 058/086 061/088 060/093 064/100
0/U 31/B 88/T 41/U 21/U 10/U 00/U
4BQ 098 065/088 064/086 059/087 061/088 060/091 065/100
0/U 13/B 66/T 41/B 32/T 11/U 10/U
BHK 097 062/085 058/079 054/082 056/087 056/088 060/096
1/U 20/B 68/T 61/B 23/T 11/U 10/U
SHR 096 061/087 059/087 056/088 056/088 056/093 060/100
0/U 13/B 55/T 43/T 32/T 10/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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