067
FXUS65 KBYZ 170708
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
108 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY.
- LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS
MORNING, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS.
- INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY
A STRONG 700 MB JET OF 50-60 KTS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE JET WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE
MORNING HOURS OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG
EAST/WEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
HELPING TO ENHANCE STRONG WINDS. GIVEN THAT WIND GUSTS HAVE
REMAINED BELOW WARNING LEVELS (60 MPH) THIS EVENING IN THE WEST,
AND THE STRONGEST 700 MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE THE
BEST LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY, WINDS GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE 40-55 MPH RANGE. EVEN THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EARLIER IN THE DAY, MOST OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA CAN EXPECT WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 30S MPH FOR MOST OF THE DAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE 60S AND
70S F WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING MOVES TO THE EAST FRIDAY BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S AND 80S F. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO GET MORE ACTIVE
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVES FROM THE
PACIFIC COAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE FURTHER
SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO CREATE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ALLOWING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO ADVECT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
VALUES INTO MONTANA. EVEN THOUGH THIS PATTERN APPEARS TO BE
FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY SHOW
CAPPING LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. WHILE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, 40-70% PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
PRESENT OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NBM IS GIVING LOCATIONS EAST OF
BILLINGS A 30-70% CHANCE OF GETTING GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND. PERSISTENT TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND 80S F ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TORGERSON
AVIATION
LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT, BECOMING WINDY AFTER MID
MORNING WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40KTS RANGE
COMMON. KSHR AND KMLS COULD (MODERATE CHANCE) SEE A PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT BEFORE WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BY
14Z.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS MORNING OVER EASTERN
MONTANA. WITH THIS, THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A THUNDERSTORM IS
NEAR KMLS AND KBHK (UP TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE). ANY THUNDERSTORM
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AROUND 40
KNOTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 051/078 051/080 056/082 057/078 052/075 052/082
0/U 10/B 00/U 02/T 43/T 32/T 11/U
LVM 074 044/078 045/080 048/079 048/077 045/075 045/082
0/B 10/U 00/B 06/T 53/T 32/T 11/U
HDN 076 048/077 048/080 054/083 055/078 049/075 049/081
2/W 11/B 00/U 01/B 53/T 33/T 11/U
MLS 072 048/074 048/076 053/080 054/074 049/072 049/078
2/W 13/T 00/U 01/B 55/T 33/W 10/U
4BQ 072 048/073 049/077 054/081 055/073 050/072 049/077
2/W 02/B 00/U 03/T 76/T 35/T 11/U
BHK 067 042/071 043/073 047/075 048/069 045/070 044/075
6/T 22/T 10/U 02/T 66/T 34/T 11/U
SHR 071 045/073 045/080 050/080 050/073 046/072 046/078
0/N 10/B 00/U 06/T 76/T 46/T 32/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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