821
FXUS65 KBYZ 301839
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1239 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT; ISOLATED
WEAK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AREAS WEST AND
SOUTHWEST OF BILLINGS.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY;
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
- FOR THE 4TH OF JULY (SATURDAY), TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S, AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WITH THE REGION TRANSITIONING INTO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW,
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ARE SET TO BRING DAILY CHANCES OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR TODAY, LOW
CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES GIVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO REMAIN OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF BILLINGS WITH
BILLINGS AT ABOUT A 15% CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM.
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO POSSIBLE (15% CHANCE) ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THAT SAME WAVE
PUSHES THROUGH. INTO WEDNESDAY, A WAVE MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL
MT LOOKS TO BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS DEPICTED BY HI-RES MODELS. MUCAPE VALUES LOOK
MODEST WITH VALUES OF UP TO 750 J/KG AND AROUND 25-30 KTS OF SHEAR
FOR AREAS WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY. WITH THIS, A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL MT WITH THE MAIN THREAT
BEING STRONG WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN
NORTHWEST CANADA AND THE SOUTHWEST US WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
SMOKE WITH MOST OF IT STAYING IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THE THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST MT WHEN ENSEMBLES SHOW A WAVE
PASSING THROUGH NORTHEAST WY AND THE DAKOTAS BOTH DAYS. ENSEMBLES
ARE SHOWING GOOD SIGNALS FOR INSTABILITY, SO THIS WILL BE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. INTO THE WEEKEND, RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN
OVERHEAD WITH ENSEMBLES DEPICTING SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MT SATURDAY EVENING, LEADING TO SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (10-20%). ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR RIDGING TO STRENGTHEN INTO NEXT WEEK, USHERING IN WARMER AND
DRYER CONDITIONS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
80S, REACHING THE LOW 90S BY NEXT WEEK. TS
AVIATION
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KTS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AROUND 19Z AND SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO CENTRAL AREAS, INCLUDING
VC KBIL THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING. IMPACTFUL COVERAGE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
(KLVM/K6S0/K3HT). LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/083 055/084 057/086 057/087 061/092 063/092 064/092
22/T 42/T 14/T 20/U 00/U 10/U 11/B
LVM 045/077 046/079 049/080 048/085 052/089 054/089 055/089
46/T 43/T 24/T 30/U 01/U 11/U 22/T
HDN 052/086 055/088 055/088 055/089 059/093 062/094 062/094
22/W 21/U 23/T 20/U 00/U 11/U 11/B
MLS 054/085 058/088 058/088 057/088 060/093 063/094 064/094
01/U 22/T 24/T 51/U 11/U 12/W 21/B
4BQ 055/084 058/088 058/089 058/087 060/093 063/093 064/093
22/U 03/T 24/T 42/T 11/U 22/T 22/T
BHK 051/082 055/086 055/086 055/085 057/091 060/091 061/091
22/U 06/T 24/T 62/T 11/U 22/T 22/T
SHR 049/082 051/084 052/086 052/085 054/091 057/091 058/092
21/U 23/T 32/T 32/T 11/U 12/T 13/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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