812  
FXUS65 KBYZ 112223  
AFDBYZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT  
323 PM MST TUE FEB 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- VERY COLD THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONTINUE TO PROTECT  
YOURSELF FROM THE COLD IF HEADING OUTSIDE DURING THIS TIME.  
 
- INCREASED TO STRONG WINDS DEVELOP AROUND LIVINGSTON TO NYE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED  
DURING THIS TIME, POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITY.  
 
- SNOW CHANCES FOR FRIDAY (50-80% FOR GREATER THAN 1 INCH) AND  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. APPEAR TO BE LIGHT AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...  
 
VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING  
ACROSS THE REGION. DURING THIS TIME, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP INTO  
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO 20S BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING  
INTO THE TEENS TO 30S BELOW ZERO. DAY TIME HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL  
ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST  
TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO FOR THE MOST  
PART. AFTER A COLD MORNING THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM  
BACK UP INTO THE TEENS TO 20S BY MID-DAY WITH WARMING, DOWNSLOPE  
WINDS IN PLACE. IF HEADING OUTSIDE ANYTIME BETWEEN NOW AND  
THURSDAY MORNING, MAKE SURE TO LIMIT EXPOSURE AND DRESS IN LAYERS.  
FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA CAN OCCUR QUICKLY AT TEMPERATURES THIS  
COLD.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. THE STRONGEST  
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS.  
AT THIS TIME, THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING 50 OR  
GREATER MPH WIND GUSTS AND A 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING 60 OR  
GREATER MPH WIND GUSTS AROUND LIVINGSTON TO NYE. AT BIG TIMBER TO  
HARLOWTON, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS AROUND 25 TO 40 MPH WITH  
THERE ONLY BEING A 30 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF SEEING 50 MPH  
WINDS. 20 TO 35 MPH WINDS WILL BE COMMON ELSEWHERE IN SOUTH-  
CENTRAL MONTANA. WITH WINDS THIS STRONG OVER A STILL FRESH  
SNOWPACK, BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE WORST CONDITIONS  
WILL OCCUR AROUND LIVINGSTON TO NYE WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE  
STRONGEST, BUT LOCALIZED IMPACTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR ELSEWHERE. AT  
THIS TIME, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE EXTENT AND DURATION OF  
IMPACTS, BUT MOTORISTS WITH TRAVEL PLANS WENDESDAY NIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD PREPARE FOR POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS DRIVING  
CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED  
VISIBILITY AROUND LIVINGSTON TO NYE, A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN  
ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FROM 8PM MST WEDNESDAY TO 12PM MST  
THURSDAY.  
 
OUTSIDE OF THE COLD AND WIND, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO  
PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARENDS  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...  
 
TEMPERATURES...  
 
FRIDAY WILL SEE A SHOT OF COLD AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO  
THE REGION LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS. SATURDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COLD DAY WITH LOCATIONS EAST  
OF ROSEBUD COUNTY HAVING A 40-70% CHANCE FOR A LOW TEMPERATURE  
BELOW -10 F BY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE HIGH PRESSURE  
MOVE TO THE EAST ALLOWING DOWNSLOPING TO RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO  
THE 20S F FOR MOST. THERE IS GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN  
TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARMER IN  
THE 20S F FOR MOST BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.  
 
SNOW...  
 
A PACIFIC WAVE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN US FRIDAY WILL BRING A  
40-80% (HIGHER WEST) CHANCE FOR SNOW. COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE  
WILL SET UP AN OVERRUNNING PATTERN THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR SNOW.  
SOUNDINGS ALSO LOOK FAVORABLE WITH A DEEP DGZ AND MOIST  
ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE CURRENTLY KEEPING SNOW ON THE  
LIGHT SIDE. LOW QPF SEEMS TO BE THE LIMITING FACTOR AT THIS TIME.  
WHATEVER PRECIPITATION THERE IS, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE ABLE TO  
GET GOOD SNOW RATIOS OUT OF IT. AT THIS TIME MODELS ARE INDICATING  
A 1-3 INCH TYPE OF EVENT WITH ONLY 90TH PERCENTILE AND ABOVE  
VALUES SHOWING MORE SIGNIFICANT (>5 IN) ACCUMULATIONS. NBM IS  
CURRENTLY GIVING LOCATIONS WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY A 50-80% CHANCE  
FOR GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW.  
 
EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AS AN  
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. NOT MUCH CAN BE  
SAID ABOUT THIS SYSTEM AT THIS POINT OTHER THAN THERE IS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. TORGERSON  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. EXPECT MID TO LOW LEVEL CLOUDS  
TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS, POCKETS OF  
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE. ARENDS  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS  
 
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE  
-----------------------------------------------------------  
BIL 915/008 904/024 006/015 002/014 901/029 019/031 012/023  
00/B 00/Q 14/J 84/J 13/J 56/J 75/J  
LVM 916/011 902/028 015/026 011/029 015/037 025/037 022/032  
00/B 00/Q 24/J 74/J 24/J 56/J 75/J  
HDN 918/007 913/022 003/015 901/013 906/028 014/030 008/023  
00/B 00/U 03/J 85/J 24/J 56/J 76/J  
MLS 918/000 916/016 004/012 903/006 910/017 008/020 000/011  
00/B 00/U 01/E 53/J 12/J 44/J 32/J  
4BQ 915/005 910/024 007/017 001/010 908/025 014/028 007/019  
00/B 00/U 00/E 53/J 11/E 33/J 43/J  
BHK 922/902 918/019 000/012 908/004 913/013 001/016 904/012  
00/I 00/U 01/E 44/J 11/B 33/J 32/J  
SHR 915/008 911/029 007/023 001/017 901/033 015/036 012/026  
00/B 00/U 01/B 65/J 22/J 35/J 66/J  
 
 
   
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO  
NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONES  
29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.  
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH  
THURSDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 65-66.  
WY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO  
NOON MST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 199.  
 
 
 
 
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