333
FXUS65 KBYZ 250754
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
154 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY, INCREASED
RISK OF HEAT RELATED HEALTH IMPACTS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH.
- LOW RISK (10-30%) OF DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. HOT TO EXTREMELY HOT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST EACH
DAY, WITH TODAY BEING THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 110F TODAY, AND 90S TO 100SF
MOST OTHER DAYS. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS
THROUGH 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN
MONTANA AND SHERIDAN COUNTY, WYOMING. FOR THE FOOTHILLS WEST AND
SOUTH OF BILLINGS, HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT
SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY, WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN THANKS TO ELEVATED PWAT VALUES (AROUND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AN
INCH THROUGH MONDAY, THEN AROUND 0.75" THE REST OF THE WEEK) AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS (SOME COULD BE STRONG, ESPECIALLY TODAY).
THERE IS A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK (2/5) FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MAIN RISK IS STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS, IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH 75 MPH OR HIGHER.
WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
SOUNDINGS PAINT AN INTERESTING PICTURE, WITH DEEP INVERTED-V
PROFILES WITH HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING IN BY MID- AFTERNOON. AS
MENTIONED BEFORE, PWATS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AND THE RISK OF BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL CANNOT BE RULED OUT DESPITE VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND FOOTHILLS IN THE
10 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE. THE RISK FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS IS
EVIDENT IN THE LATEST HIRES MODEL RUNS, WHICH DEPICT A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS FIRING OFF OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF
BILLINGS BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WIND GUSTS
SHOWN AMONGST THESE MODELS RANGES FROM 50 TO 75 MPH, WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS SHOWN BY THE HRRR, NAM, AND RRFS AMONGST OTHERS.
THERE HAS GENERALLY BEEN CONSENSUS THAT THE STRONGER GUSTS WILL
TRACK INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA THOUGH, WITH EVEN HIGHER GUSTS
POSSIBLE THERE. ANOTHER CONCERN WITH STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING.
THE COMBINATION OF EXTREMELY HOT TEMPERATURES, VERY LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES, AND MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS AND LIGHTNING WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY. AS A RESULT, A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHERN MONTANA, PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA FROM NOON MDT TO MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. PLEASE TAKE CARE NOT TO
CAUSE A SPARK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH TEMPERATURES
DRYING OUT FUELS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE ONE FACTOR HELPING TO KEEP LOWER
FIRE RISK.
FINALLY FOR THOSE KEEPING UP ON THE JULY 25TH DRAMA. BILLINGS
AIRPORT HAS NEVER (SINCE 1934) REACHED 100F ON THIS DATE. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS A HIGH OF 102F FOR TODAY. THE ABOVE NORMAL
PWAT VALUES AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION COULD MITIGATE THE EXTENT OF
SURFACE HEATING WITH CLOUD COVER THOUGH. THE JULY 25TH RECORD IS
98F, SO IT IS POSSIBLE TO BREAK THE RECORD AND STILL NOT REACH
100F.
MATOS
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH THIS,
GUSTY WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT. AFTER A DRY MORNING, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS OF 40 TO 60 KTS.
OTHERWISE, WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE SLANT
RANGE VISIBILITY AT TIMES, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MONTANA. HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGH DENSITY
ALTITUDE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 102 069/099 068/097 068/099 068/100 067/100 067/101
3/T 31/B 20/U 11/U 21/U 11/U 10/G
LVM 099 060/096 059/095 058/097 058/097 058/099 059/100
3/T 32/T 31/U 10/U 11/U 12/T 11/U
HDN 103 067/100 065/099 066/100 066/101 065/101 065/101
2/T 20/U 20/U 11/U 21/G 11/G 10/G
MLS 106 072/101 069/101 069/102 071/103 069/101 069/103
2/T 20/G 20/G 10/G 21/G 21/G 21/G
4BQ 104 070/100 069/100 068/099 070/100 068/099 069/100
2/T 20/U 31/U 21/U 32/T 21/U 11/U
BHK 106 068/101 065/101 065/100 067/101 065/100 065/100
2/G 20/G 22/T 11/U 23/T 31/U 21/U
SHR 099 064/096 063/095 062/097 063/097 062/097 062/098
2/T 20/B 32/T 21/U 21/U 12/T 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 29>34-36-37-42-57-58-138-139-169-170-173-235.
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
40-56-63>66-141-172-228.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 117.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR ZONES 123>133.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
199.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR ZONES 274-284.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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