423
FXUS65 KBYZ 012305
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
505 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WEST OF BILLINGS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS EAST OF BILLINGS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING. STRONG
WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS WEDNESDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY;
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER NEAR AND WEST OF BILLINGS THURSDAY.
- CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LATER THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS CHANGES ARE LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
AS WE REMAIN BETWEEN THE LOW TO OUR NW AND THE HIGH TO OUR SE,
THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE
AREA BRINGING REPEATED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE FIRST
OF WHICH IS IMPACTING US NOW WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE REGION. NONE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE. PWATS
TODAY ARE ONLY SITTING AROUND 0.6" FOR MOST OF THE CWA. ANOTHER
SHOT OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW, HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THE
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE TO OUR NW CLOSER TO THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION. IN TERMS OF SEVERE, ANY STORM ON WEDNESDAY IS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNBURST ACTIVITY
BUT MOST OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA.
STARTING TOMORROW THERE MAY BE A NOTABLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
HIGHS IN OUR EASTERN PLAINS VERSUS THE FOOTHILLS IN THE WEST AS
THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED REGIMES JOCKEY FOR DOMINANCE. PLACES LIKE
BAKER AND MILES CITY MAY SEE HIGHS 5 TO 10F ABOVE AVERAGE INTO
THE 90S WHILE LIVINGSTON KEEPS TEMPS A TOUCH BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
70S. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE
ADVANCING SHORTWAVES BUT MODELS HAVE REMAINED ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THINGS OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO. WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 20S MPH
ARE FORECAST BOTH DAYS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER (30S MPH WITH ISOLATED
UP TO 40 MPH) IN THE GAP AREAS OF THE SOUTH-CENTERAL MONTANA
FOOTHILLS. THESE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH MIN RH VALUES IN THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WEDNESDAY AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY, ESEPCAILLY LOW
ELEVATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS. LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
RECENTLY RECEIVED 0.5-1" OF PRECIP AND THUS FIRE CONCERNS DECREASE
NOTABLY WITH ELEVATION.
THIS WEEKEND STILL HAS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AROUND IT WITH WHEN
AND WHERE EXACTLY WE WILL SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. MOST
MODEL RUNS AGREE THAT THE MAIN LOW WILL STAY OVER THE PNW THROUGH
A MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL STILL LIKELY BE LOBES OF
ENERGY THAT EJECT OFF OF THE PARENT FEATURE AND MOVE INTO MT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER JUST HOW MUCH PRECIP THIS BRINGS AND
HOW FAR EAST REMAINS A LARGE QUESTION. IT DOES LOOK LIKE EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP INCREASE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND, IN TURN, THETA-E VALUES. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IF A LIFTING
MECHANISM IS PRESENT. WMR
AVIATION
00Z AVIATION/TAF DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA
AND THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS/ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLIGHT CATEGORIES, WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE HRRR IS STEADILY BACKING OFF THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
STORM TO MOVE ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER EAST OF SHERIDAN COUNTY IN
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT
OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 35KTS WITH SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN VALLEYS (KLVM) WHERE STORM MOTION AND VALLEY ORIENTATION
ALIGN. MIXED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 17Z TOMORROW
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE EXPECTED. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 081 058/089 059/087 058/089 058/084 059/080 058/082
2/W 21/B 20/B 00/U 00/U 12/W 42/W
LVM 076 050/082 047/080 047/082 048/081 048/078 048/078
2/W 21/N 00/N 00/U 11/U 12/T 54/T
HDN 083 052/091 053/090 052/092 053/087 055/084 056/085
2/W 20/U 20/U 00/U 00/U 13/W 42/W
MLS 084 058/091 058/088 059/093 060/088 060/083 059/084
2/W 20/U 20/U 00/U 00/U 14/W 53/W
4BQ 083 056/091 060/090 060/094 061/088 061/084 060/085
3/T 30/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 14/T 43/W
BHK 081 051/089 055/090 057/094 059/091 056/085 054/084
2/W 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 13/W 53/T
SHR 080 051/088 052/087 052/090 054/086 055/081 054/082
2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 03/T 33/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 123>128.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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