704
FXUS65 KBYZ 052349
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
549 PM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM, DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
FRIDAY. FIRE CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, AND MAY BE CRITICAL
ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASED WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES.
- PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMING MORE LIKELY. DETAILS STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN.
UPDATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPS WERE SET TODAY AT BILLINGS (88F),
LIVINGSTON (87F) AND SHERIDAN (92F). FOR SHERIDAN, IT'S THE LATEST
IN THE FALL TO EVER REACH 92F, DATING BACK TO 1907. DRY WESTERLY
FLOW EXISTS OVER THE REGION AND WIND GUSTS ARE STARTING TO SUBSIDE
AS OF 545PM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, BUT
MIXED NW WINDS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY AGAIN TOMORROW, WITH
TEMPS NOT AS WARM AS TODAY (BUT STILL SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER THAN
NORMAL). FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. JKL
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
A HOT AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, POSSIBLY A FEW
90S TODAY. COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLE HEAT, VERY DRY AIRMASS, AND
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP CRITICAL (WEST) TO ELEVATED
(ELSEWHERE) FIRE CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE FOR THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (LIVINGSTON
TO BIG TIMBER AND NORTH TO HARLOWTON) UNTIL 8PM THIS EVENING.
PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION TO PREVENT WILDFIRES TODAY.
WARM, DRY, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL TILT THE
FLOW ALOFT MORE NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY, LOWERING HEIGHTS AND
ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN NORTHERLY AND PULL SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN
FOR TUESDAY. THIS WILL LOWER THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY, SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE FURTHER FIRE WEATHER HIGHLITES
BEYOND TODAY. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER BY A FEW DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HOLD IN
THE 70S THURSDAY WITH WINDS TURNING SOUTHERLY AND THEN
SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY. NBM MIGHT BE A BIT COOL FOR
THURSDAY HIGHS AS WESTERN RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE AREA AND
WOULD EXPECT BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SO, COULD BE 4 OR 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN FORECAST, WHICH IS
CAPTURED IN THE NBM 75TH PERCENTILE FOR THURSDAYS HIGHS.
MONITORING FRIDAY AS A POTENTIAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY.
STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF POTENTIAL WEEKEND
STORM SYSTEM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO
LEVELS SIMILAR TO TODAYS FORECAST, WITH STRONGER GUSTS. GIVEN A
WEEK OF WARM DRY CONDITIONS, FUELS WILL LIKELY BE MORE CRITICAL BY
THE END OF THIS WEEK COMPARED TO TODAY AS WELL. AS WITH THURSDAY,
THE DETERMINISTIC NBM MAY BE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR FRIDAY. ALL OF
THIS DEPENDS ON THE CHARACTER AND TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL SYNOPTIC
STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND.
SATURDAY IS A TRANSITION DAY. 28% OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
(CAN/EC/GFS) ARE ADVERTISING A TROF (COOL/WETTER) OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY, 40% ARE SHOWING SW FLOW PATTERN (WARM/SHOWERS), AND 32%
SHOW RIDGE OR FLAT FLOW (WARM, BREEZY, DRY). SO, PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE DEVELOPING FOR SATURDAY, BUT NOT A SLAM DUNK, AND
TEMPERATURES ARE LEANING TOWARD REMAINING WARM WITH DETERMINISTIC
NBM SHOWING MAINLY 70S, WITH A FEW 80S OVER SOUTHEAST AREAS.
SUNDAY/MONDAY ARE SHOWING A TREND TOWARD A TROF EITHER OVER THE
AREA (COOL/WET/MTN SNOW) OR IN THE VICINITY/JUST WEST (NOT AS COOL
BUT UNSETTLED TO WET) WITH 85-90% OF ENSEMBLES CLUSTERED INTO
THOSE CATEGORIES. THAT STILL LEAVES 10-15% OF SOLUTIONS SHOWING
RIDGING ALOFT WITH CONTINUED WARM/DRY CONDITIONS, WHICH WHILE AN
OUTLIER IS STILL DOUBLE DIGIT PROBABILITY.
A LOT OF DISCUSSION IN SOCIAL MEDIA ABOUT SOME OUTLIER SNOW
SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. CURRENTLY THERE ARE ABOUT 30%
OF ENSEMBLES SHOWING ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND AROUND 5 PERCENT SHOWING
VERY LARGE ACCUMULATIONS. THAT STILL LEAVES 70% SHOWING LITTLE TO
NO LOWER ELEVATION SNOWFALL. KEEP IN MIND THAT THESE SOLUTIONS ARE
STILL A WEEK OR MORE OUT IN THE FUTURE DURING THE FALL WHEN THE
ATMOSPHERE IS IN FLUX AND MODELS CAN STRUGGLE. SO TAKE ANY BIG
SNOWFALL DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS WITH A BIG GRAIN OF SALT. THAT
SAID THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PATTERN CHANGE THIS
WEEKEND TO MORE UNSETTLED FALL WEATHER. TAKE THIS INTO
CONSIDERATION WITH WEEKEND PLANS ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
WHERE SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE LIKELY. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
00Z DISCUSSION.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, UNDER
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS. GUSTY NW WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING,
BUT INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. LOOK FOR 15-25 KNOT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW.
JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052/081 048/076 046/074 048/081 053/070 037/045 032/047
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 78/W 85/W
LVM 050/082 046/079 043/078 044/081 047/069 030/045 025/048
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 02/W 78/W 85/W
HDN 048/082 044/076 042/074 043/083 049/072 037/048 032/051
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 66/W 75/W
MLS 051/077 046/073 046/071 046/079 051/070 040/047 034/048
00/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 46/W 65/W
4BQ 052/079 048/076 047/073 048/082 053/075 042/050 036/050
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 35/W 75/W
BHK 050/078 045/074 043/071 043/079 050/074 037/049 030/049
00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 34/W 65/W
SHR 048/083 046/078 043/075 042/083 049/076 035/049 030/050
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 46/W 85/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 123-124.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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