060
FXUS65 KBYZ 011849
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1249 PM MDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO
THIS EVENING.
- DRY AND MILD FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
BANDS OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES CONTINUE ALONG AN AXIS OF MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE EAST SIDE OF THE SNOWY MTNS TO FAR
SOUTHEAST MT. SOME MESONET STATIONS SHOW 0.01" OF RAIN IN THE PAST
6 HOURS, AND NO DOUBT THERE HAS LOCALLY BEEN A BIT MORE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE ABOUT TO CLIP NORTHEAST MT IN A WNW FLOW
ALOFT. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES THE FRONTOGENESIS WILL WANE AND A
MID LEVEL WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OUT OF OUR CWA LATER TONIGHT. THE
RISK OF LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS HAPPENS. AS SKIES
UNDERGO CLEARING THERE COULD BE A LOW RISK OF FOG TONIGHT BUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS DRY AND A SHIFT TO DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT IN OUR WEST. TO THE EAST WILL BE A BREEZY S-SE
LOW LEVEL JET. NONE OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ANY HINT OF FOG,
BUT CONCEPTUALLY IF THERE IS ANY POTENTIAL IT WOULD SEEM TO BE
SOMEWHERE IN OUR CENTRAL CWA FROM MAYBE INGOMAR TO HARDIN,
COLSTRIP & SHERIDAN. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
WE ARE ABOUT TO ENTER AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM & DRY WEATHER
WHICH WILL CONFIDENTLY LAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK (IF NOT
LONGER). THERE IS MORE WEAK ENERGY OFF THE BC COAST THAT WILL TAKE
A SIMILAR TRACK AS THE CURRENT WAVE. TOMORROW WILL BE WARM, DRY
AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY IN A PRE-FRONTAL REGIME. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
DROPS OUT OF CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH AT MOST A LOW CHANCE OF
LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR FAR EAST INTO EARLY SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
MODESTLY COOLER SATURDAY WITH A BACKDOOR SHIFT TO N-E WINDS.
STRONG WESTERN CONUS RIDGING WITH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE WARMEST DAY
LOOKS TO BE MONDAY WHEN A RETURN TO 80S IS EXPECTED. THERE IS
GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR ANOTHER WEAK CANADIAN FRONT AND SLIGHT
COOLING FOR TUESDAY. ALL TOLD, TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. EARLY OCTOBER NORMAL HIGH TEMPS ARE IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S.
THE PROLONGED WARMTH AND DRYNESS WILL ALLOW FOR FIRE CONCERNS TO
INCREASE AGAIN IN AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ABOUT 10 DAYS AGO. THIS INCLUDES THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. GIVEN THE OCCASIONAL WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SOME
AMOUNT OF WIND THIS IS SOMETHING TO THINK ABOUT.
THE PACIFIC TROPICS REMAIN VERY ACTIVE. THERE IS A NEW TROPICAL
STORM (CHOI-WAN) NEAR GUAM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TYPHOON AS
IT TRACKS NORTHWARD OVER THE COMING DAYS. CHOI-WAN WILL
EVENTUALLY GO EXTRATROPICAL IN SOME FASHION IN THE NW PACIFIC,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE DOWNSTREAM LONGWAVE PATTERN ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND INTO WESTERN NA. ENSEMBLES SHOW INCREASING
SPREAD BEGINNING AROUND OCT 10, HINTING AT A POSSIBLE CHANGE. THIS
IS OBVIOUSLY OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED.
JKL
AVIATION
MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER
SOUTH-EASTERN MONTANA TODAY, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING INTO TONIGHT.
WITH THIS, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. OTHERWISE, THE BREEZY EAST
TO SOUTH-EASTERLY WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WILL DECREASE
INTO TONIGHT, HOLDING ON THE LONGEST OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA
WHERE A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE PRESENT TONIGHT. ON FRIDAY, BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. LA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/080 050/069 044/074 049/084 055/080 050/077 050/077
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 039/080 045/072 039/080 048/084 051/079 047/078 046/078
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 041/079 047/069 042/075 044/086 051/081 047/078 046/079
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 045/075 050/068 043/073 048/083 054/078 050/075 049/075
00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 045/078 051/070 044/075 050/086 056/080 052/077 050/077
10/U 01/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 041/075 048/068 040/071 045/084 053/080 048/076 047/076
00/B 01/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 039/080 047/069 041/075 045/086 051/080 047/078 046/078
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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