966
FXUS65 KBYZ 300037
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
637 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED HOT WITH A DAILY CHANCE (10-30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- VERY HOT & DRY SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT;
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. COOLER TEMPS MONDAY & TUESDAY.
UPDATE
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST MT HAS ENDED, WITH
STRONGER STORMS HAVING SHIFTED INTO THE DAKOTAS. THAT SAID, ENERGY
LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST COMBINED WITH HIGH MOISTURE IN PLACE
(PWATS OF 0.8" WEST TO 1.3" EAST PER MESOANALYSIS) WILL BRING A
CONTINUED RISK OF SHOWERS AND MOSTLY WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE EVENING. STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO ~50 MPH. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
W/ A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING CONTINUED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SUBSIDENCE
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST IN THE 18-00Z TIME FRAME (SO A LESSER RISK
OF T-STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON). ANY RISK OF SEVERE WX TOMORROW
WILL BE IN OUR FAR EAST. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS/WX PER CURRENT TRENDS, AND HAVE EXPANDED SHOWER COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. JKL
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...SIGNIFICANT
MUCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG ARE PROGGED FOR OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES TODAY ALONG A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENT AREA WITH PWATS
OVER AN INCH. AS MONSOONAL IMPULSES TRACK OVER THIS AREA WE EXPECT
TO SEE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION FIRE-UP AND MOVE INTO THE
DAKOTAS BY EVENING. LOCAL WINDS TO 65 MPH, VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS,
FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME HAIL AS WELL WITH STRONGER CELLS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL
SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION AS WELL LATE DAY, SOME OF WHICH MAY
PRODUCE LOCAL WIND GUSTS TO 50-55 MPH. CAMS INDICATE ACTIVE
CONVECTION WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT AND THEN LINGERING OVER OUR EAST THURSDAY MORNING.
BIG PICTURE...A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW
ALOFT, COMBINED WITH ELEVATED MONSOON MOISTURE, WILL RESULT IN A
BUSY PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DECREASE BY FRIDAY WITH LITTLE IF
ANY CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND. HOT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BEFORE PEAKING SATURDAY WHERE MODELS PROGS
ARE INDICATING A 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE REACHING UP TO 19C SHIFTING
OVER OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPS WELL OVER 100F FOR MUCH OF
OUR CWA SATURDAY. DAILY RECORDS FOR AUG 1ST WILL BE IN JEOPARDY,
AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOCATIONS REACH 110F (SMOKE
PERMITTING) FOR THE 2ND TIME THIS SUMMER. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING TEMPS OVER 105F SATURDAY ARE ALONG AND NEAR THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY FROM BILLINGS TO MILES CITY (45-60%).
BY SUNDAY, ENSEMBLES CONFIDENTLY SUGGEST A BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AS A SHORT WAVE TRACKS OVER THE MT/CANADA BORDER. THIS WILL
LEAD TO BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPS TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK. THINK HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
FOR MONDAY/TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIP.
FIRE WEATHER...MIXED WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES, BUT MID LEVEL
FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 10-20KTS DOES NOT SUPPORT STRONG WINDS.
FURTHERMORE, A WEAK COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER MIDNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY PUSH SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL TOLD,
SATURDAY WILL SEE ELEVATED FIRE WX CONCERNS, BUT FRONTAL TIMING
SEEMS LATE ENOUGH TO PREVENT IT FROM BEING A MORE PROBLEMATIC DAY.
BREEZY POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS SUNDAY COULD BE AN ISSUE AS
HUMIDITY WILL STILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING FOR THE WEEKEND.
WILDFIRE SMOKE...SMOKE WILL BE SPORADIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
BUT MODELS INDICATE SURFACE BASED SMOKE WILL NOT BE TO BAD OVER
OUR CWA. THE FRONTAL PASSAGES THIS WEEKEND COULD BE FOLLOWED BY
INCREASED SURFACE SMOKE PER THE SUBSIDENCE AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE
WINDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. BT
AVIATION
00Z DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THEY SLOWLY MOVE EAST. WIND GUSTS OF
40-50KTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE
STORMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY IMPACT KSHR BETWEEN 03-08Z
TONIGHT AND MOVE EASTWARDS. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS. WEAKER
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST AGAIN AFTER 18Z ACROSS THE REGION.
AREAS OF WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY REDUCE SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/095 063/098 064/105 068/095 060/079 055/083 057/089
31/K 10/U 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 055/093 056/095 058/102 060/092 050/080 047/082 050/088
31/K 10/U 00/G 00/N 10/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 064/095 061/099 062/107 066/097 059/082 053/086 055/092
42/W 10/U 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 068/093 063/099 065/106 071/096 062/082 055/084 057/090
33/T 21/U 00/G 00/N 00/N 11/U 11/U
4BQ 066/090 062/096 064/103 071/098 064/083 056/084 059/090
53/T 13/T 10/G 00/U 10/U 11/U 21/U
BHK 063/089 058/096 061/102 067/098 060/083 052/081 054/088
44/T 11/U 10/G 00/N 20/N 11/U 11/U
SHR 060/091 056/095 058/102 062/098 057/083 050/084 053/090
42/T 11/U 00/G 00/N 00/N 00/U 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 117.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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