309
FXUS65 KBYZ 061015
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
315 AM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND VERY WARM WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASED GRASS FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES.
- PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO MID 60S (WARMEST ON SUNDAY). TODAY AND
SATURDAY WILL BE THE DRIEST, WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS TO 30 PERCENT IN AND WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY.
LATE TONIGHT, A WEAK UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS
GUSTING IN THE 20S TO 30S MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS. HIGHER GUSTS INTO
THE 40S MPH ARE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN GAP AND FOOTHILL
LOCATIONS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICKUP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AROUND
LIVINGSTON AND NYE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A FAVORABLE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS. AS THE WAVE DEPARTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 700MB WINDS WILL BRING ANOTHER
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS TO THE WESTERN FOOTHILL AND GAP
LOCATIONS.THE PROBABILITY FOR WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR GREATER
AROUND LIVINGSTON AND NYE IS 40-70%.
WITH REGARDS TO FIRE WEATHER, THE COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT DRY,
OCCASIONALLY BREEZY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL BRING AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR GRASS FIRES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GREATEST
RISK WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WHERE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMEST AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWEST. SATURDAY COULD BE
ESPECIALLY NOTABLE WITH INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. MEDIA
PARTNERS, PLEASE REMIND FOLKS TO BE CAREFUL AND AVOID CAUSING A
SPARK!
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A PATTERN CHANGE EARLY
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO BE WETTER AND COOLER, WITH HIGHS
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON SEVERAL VARIABLES
THOUGH, ONE BEING THE PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE EXTENT
OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS. SOUTH AND WEST FACING MOUNTAIN ASPECTS WILL
BE MOST FAVORED WITH THIS SYSTEM, BRINGING SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOWFALL AFTER SEVERAL WEEKS OF LITTLE TO NONE. THE CURRENT
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR SW FACING MOUNTAINS
IS 60 TO 90%, THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING
SLOPES, SUCH AS RED LODGE, THE LATEST TRENDS FOR THE SYSTEM ARE
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS, WITH ONLY A 10-20%
CHANCE FOR 4 OR MORE INCHES. THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS IS 20-40%. ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH MINIMAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION'S OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER HILLS. THE LATEST
PROBABILITY FOR 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE PLAINS IS 5-20%.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, THE PATTERN DOES REMAIN MORE UNSETTLED
WITH TEMPS AROUND OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS ARE SHOWN DEVELOPING.
MATOS
AVIATION
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD VFR
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A LOW (20%) RISK
OF VALLEY FOG NEAR KMLS, KBHK, AND K97M LATE TONIGHT (AFTER 09Z)
INTO EARLY FRIDAY (15Z). CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD FOG
TO THE KMLS TAF, BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR TONIGHT.
JKL/CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 042/065 039/062 039/048 027/046 025/047 027/050
0/U 00/B 00/E 36/W 31/U 11/B 00/B
LVM 062 041/059 038/057 037/044 023/042 022/043 025/045
0/U 00/N 01/N 57/W 31/U 11/B 10/B
HDN 061 036/065 033/065 037/049 027/047 023/049 023/052
0/U 00/B 00/B 26/W 32/W 11/B 10/U
MLS 056 033/060 033/061 034/044 026/043 022/045 024/047
0/U 00/B 00/B 14/W 21/B 11/B 10/U
4BQ 059 035/060 035/063 034/049 028/043 024/046 023/049
0/U 00/B 00/B 13/W 31/B 11/B 10/U
BHK 049 029/055 031/058 031/044 023/040 020/042 021/044
0/B 00/B 00/B 13/W 31/B 11/B 11/U
SHR 062 035/061 031/063 031/049 021/042 020/045 020/047
0/U 00/B 00/B 16/W 53/J 22/J 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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