182
FXUS65 KBYZ 270819
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
219 AM MDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
- WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP TODAY, WITH WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 50 MPH FORECAST (STRONGEST OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF
BILLINGS).
- MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY INTO THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
- ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
INITIAL ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIP PRODUCED A TRACE OF RAIN AT BILLINGS
AROUND 08Z. UPSTREAM THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIP IN SOUTH
CENTRAL MT LIFTING INTO THE SW MOUNTAINS AND LIVINGSTON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ALONG THE UPPER TROF AXIS IN A REGION OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7.5C/KM) INTO THE DGZ, AND THUS WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE BRIEF MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
HIGH RES MODELS SHOW THESE SHOWERS BREAKING UP AS THEY MOVE OFF
THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO A REGION OF INCREASING DOWNSLOPING, BUT IF
THEY HOLD TOGETHER ANOTHER SHOT OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
REACH THE BILLINGS AREA BY 10-13Z. BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING WILL BE NORTHEAST OF BILLINGS. IN ANY EVENT,
HAVE ADJUSTED EARLY MORNING POPS/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE CURRENT
TRENDS. JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED
TROUGH ARE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY INITIALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF
THE MOUNTAINS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA. BY MID-DAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS WILL
HAVE LIFTED OUT OF SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN MONTANA,
HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE AS A
SECONDARY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE
PRECIPITATION TODAY, AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS POTENTIALLY SEEING
UP TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID. WHILE RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE PLAINS, SNOW LEVELS
DROPPING NEAR 5,000 FEET WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WITH THIS, A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST MAINLY ON THE WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING.
ALONG WITH SHOWERS, THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
WINDY CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. WHILE THE INITIAL COLD
FRONT WILL MAINLY BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
MAYBE SOME OF THE HIGHER HILLS TONIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY INCREASE ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING AS THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION ERODES. LOOK FOR PEAK WIND GUSTS TO BE IN THE 20 TO 40
MPH RANGE FOR MOST, WITH 40 TO 50 MPH OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF
BILLINGS. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUST AROUND BIG
TIMBER AND HARLOWTON, THOUGH THE CHANCE OF SEEING A 60 MPH WIND
GUST REMAINS LOW. WITH THIS, THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING FOR MOST, THOUGH FAR EASTERN MONTANA COULD SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY.
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES INTO
THE REGION AND THE WINDS ALOFT BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT TIMES, NO STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST. BY
LATE FRIDAY, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL/WESTERN MONTANA AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS THROUGH
THE REGION.
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN AS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS, JUST EXACTLY WHERE REMAINS VERY
UNCERTAIN. LA
AVIATION
ISSUED 08Z. LOW (MVFR-IFR) STRATUS, LOCALIZED EMBEDDED FOG, AND
BREEZY ESE WINDS WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHEAST MT (ROSEBUD COUNTY
EASTWARD) THROUGH SUNRISE, AFTER WHICH A COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT
TO WESTERLY WILL SCOUR OUT THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN
15-18Z. TO THE WEST, LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS WILL PRODUCE OCCASIONAL MVFR AND FREQUENT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT AND THRU THE
DAYTIME HOURS, EXPECT BRISK WEST WINDS GUSTING 35-45 KNOTS ALONG
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND 20-35 KNOTS FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. AS WINDS INCREASE THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO WIDESPREAD
VFR, WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL OCCASIONALLY OBSCURE THE HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058 034/058 030/053 031/047 031/053 034/052 033/050
2/N 00/U 00/U 00/E 11/B 35/W 54/W
LVM 052 024/053 024/053 023/050 034/054 034/048 024/048
1/N 10/U 00/U 01/E 13/W 56/W 54/J
HDN 062 028/061 025/057 028/052 029/056 032/055 030/053
3/W 10/U 00/U 00/E 11/B 34/W 54/W
MLS 058 033/059 029/055 031/055 036/054 036/055 035/052
6/W 00/U 00/U 00/E 11/E 34/W 55/W
4BQ 060 035/059 030/059 035/057 038/056 037/057 037/051
1/N 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 34/W 65/W
BHK 055 029/058 027/059 026/054 034/057 033/056 030/051
2/W 00/U 00/U 01/N 23/W 34/W 66/W
SHR 059 029/059 026/059 028/055 030/057 031/055 030/051
1/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 25/W 65/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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