217
FXUS65 KBYZ 031847
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1247 PM MDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND VERY MILD THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE MONDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS DEVELOP MONDAY, CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND HAS SWEPT
CLOUD COVER OUT OF THE AREA, LEAVING SUNNY SKIES AND DIMINISHING
NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER AIR, CLEAR SKIES AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 35
TO 45 DEGREE RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TONIGHT, COOLEST OVER
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. PROBABILITIES FOR FALLING UNDER 35 DEGREES IN
THE WESTERN VALLEYS IS UNDER 10%, BUT A FROST AND LOCAL FREEZE ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. IF YOU HAVE TENDER VEGETATION YOU MAY
WANT TO PROTECT IT TONIGHT.
SUNDAY LOOKS SUNNY AND WARM WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING FROM THE
COOL START TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S BY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY IS LOOKING VERY WARM AND BREEZY. BY VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ARE PUSHING 30 YEAR RETURN INTERVALS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR LIVINGSTON, BILLINGS, AND SHERIDAN. NBM
PROBABILITY FOR HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES ARE IN THE 15 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE IN CENTRAL AREAS, WITH AREAS SOUTHEAST OF BILLINGS INTO
NORTHEAST WYOMING SHOWING POCKETS OF 30 TO 70% PROBABILITIES,
HIGHEST IN THE MAJOR RIVER VALLEYS. DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH ARE THE CULPRIT FOR THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES, AND WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. BE EXTRA CAUTIOUS WITH ANY ACTIVITIES
THAT COULD SPARK A GRASS FIRE MONDAY.
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BY AROUND 10 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY, WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND LESS WIND COMPARED TO MONDAY. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
ARE NEAR CARBON COPIES OF TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
PATTERN CHANGES MAY DEVELOP HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. CURRENTLY
ABOUT 14% OF ENSEMBLES ARE CLUSTERED AROUND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WITH COOLER WETTER CONDITIONS DROPPING INTO THE AREA. BY SATURDAY
62% OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE INDICATING A TROF IN THE AREA, AND 77%
BY SUNDAY. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR (FALL IS CHALLENGING FOR THE
MODELS) AND THE ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN THE PACIFIC
(IMPACT UPSTREAM PATTERNS) THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LOT OF CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND, BUT AT LEAST THERE IS A
POTENTIAL BREAK IN THE VERY WARM DRY AND BREEZY PATTERN THAT WILL
BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEK. PLEASE BE VERY CAREFUL TO NOT
START A GRASS FIRE THIS WEEK AS THE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT EASY
IGNITIONS AND QUICK SPREAD OF ANY FIRES THAT DO GET GOING,
ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE NW WILL IMPACT THE PLAINS (KSHR/KMLS/KBHK)
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER SUNSET WINDS WILL DIE DOWN AT THE
SURFACE TO NEARLY CALM. SOME MINOR LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT THESE
SITES BETWEEN 01Z AND 14Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/076 050/086 053/079 049/077 049/075 049/079 052/068
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W
LVM 035/083 048/086 050/080 046/080 045/077 045/079 045/067
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 12/W
HDN 040/077 045/088 049/079 045/077 045/076 045/082 049/070
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B
MLS 039/075 048/085 052/076 047/074 047/072 047/078 051/069
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B
4BQ 042/077 049/088 054/078 049/077 049/075 050/081 053/073
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B
BHK 036/074 045/085 051/077 045/075 044/073 045/078 048/071
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B
SHR 037/077 046/088 049/079 046/078 045/076 045/081 048/072
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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