462
FXUS65 KBYZ 071807
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1207 PM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT POSSIBLE
ROSEBUD COUNTY EASTWARD LATE TODAY.
- MAINLY DRY MONDAY; THEN A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN IDAHO
LIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST INTO NW MONTANA. NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WAS UNDERCUTTING STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW OUR REGION. AREAS OF
CLOUDS HAD ERODED OVER OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR INCREASING DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATED WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THAT SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL
INTERACT WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT OVER OUR
EAST WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 0.8 INCHES OVER THE WEST TO OVER
AN INCH FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY EASTWARD. MEAN MUCAPE RANGES FROM
750-2000 J/KG, HIGHEST NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDERS. CAMS ARE DEPICTING
SIGNIFICANT 2-5KM HELICITY TRACKS MAINLY FROM BIGHORN COUNTY
EASTWARD WITH DEEPER CONVECTIVE INITIATION STARTING AROUND 1-2
PM. DESPITE A COOLER POST FRONTAL AIR MASS, OUR LIFTED INDICES MAY
REACH -4C IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER FORCING
FROM HEIGHT FALLS AND JET-LETS SHOULD PRODUCE A BUSY DAY OVER OUR
EASTERN ZONES. SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREATS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE DAKOTA BORDER THIS EARLY THIS EVENING AS PROGGS
PRODUCE A BRIEF WINDOW OF FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS. FOLKS SHOULD KEEP
AN EYE ON THE SKY AND MOVE TO SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER
APPROACHES. HAVE A WAY TO RECEIVE WEATHER UPDATES AND BULLETINS,
BUT PLEASE DO NOT WAIT FOR WARNINGS!
CAMS HINT THAT THE CONVECTION MAY FORM AN MCS OR EVEN A BOWING
LINE (WIDESPREAD WIND THREAT) LATE TODAY OVER OUR FOUR EASTERN
COUNTIES AS IT ALL TRACKS INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. THERE
MAY BE A FEW LINGERING CELLS TRAILING BACK IN SE MT THIS EVENING,
BUT OTHERWISE LOOK FOR DRIER AIR MOVING IN QUICKLY AND CLEARING
SKIES OVERNIGHT.
BY MONDAY, WEAK RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION BRINGS DRIER
CONDITIONS. COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES
DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING A DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY, INCLUDING THE BEARTOOTH
HWY. THE CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW,
WITH THE BETTER CHANCE EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S TUESDAY ONWARD. BT
AVIATION
18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FORM AROUND KBIL/KSHR BETWEEN 18-19Z AND QUICKLY STRENGTHEN AND
MOVE EASTWARDS. SITES SUCH AS KMLS/KBHK/K00U MAY SEE ERRATIC
WINDS OF UP TO 60 KTS, LOCALIZED HAIL, LIFR VIS, AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. THE GREATEST RISK FOR KMLS/KBHK IS BETWEEN 21Z AND
03Z. WMR
12Z DISCUSSION...
AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF
KMLS-K00F EARLY THIS MORNING. THROUGH DAYTIME MIXING THESE LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14-16Z. SHOWERS W/ A FEW WEAK T-STORMS
IN THE FAR WEST THIS MORNING MAY PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR NEAR KHWQ &
KLVM, WHILE MOUNTAINS ARE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME STORMS (MAINLY FROM BILLINGS EASTWARD) MAY BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS, ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN (MVFR/IFR EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS). PEAK TIMING FOR TS
TODAY IS FROM 19Z TO 02Z. AN AFTERNOON COLD FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY NW-N WINDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING, WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-35KTS. VFR WILL PREVAIL AND WINDS WILL
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
REGION.
JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044/077 055/079 050/068 047/072 047/076 048/071 048/072
20/B 01/B 75/T 31/N 21/U 23/T 22/T
LVM 035/074 048/069 039/059 036/066 038/072 040/067 040/067
01/B 08/T +8/T 31/N 11/U 23/T 33/T
HDN 041/079 052/081 048/069 045/071 045/075 046/070 045/071
20/B 01/B 85/T 52/T 11/U 23/T 22/T
MLS 045/076 056/082 051/069 048/070 047/073 048/068 048/069
50/B 11/B 55/T 43/T 11/B 12/W 22/W
4BQ 046/077 058/084 050/067 046/068 046/073 048/070 047/068
52/W 11/B 87/T 44/T 11/U 23/T 22/T
BHK 044/075 054/084 048/067 045/066 045/070 045/064 045/067
70/B 21/B 46/T 55/T 11/U 22/W 23/W
SHR 039/080 050/081 044/064 040/068 040/073 042/070 042/068
30/B 03/T 78/T 53/T 12/T 24/T 33/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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