941
FXUS65 KBYZ 160842
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
142 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON OVER THE BEARTOOTH AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS.
- COLD FRONT BRINGS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY; GUSTS OF 35-55 MPH LIKELY.
- LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH A FEW
INCHES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW.
- A PERIOD OF LOWER ELEVATION SNOW AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY; EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION AND
POTENTIALLY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
TO LOW 60S UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. WINDS WILL BE WELL-MIXED AND
BREEZY, WITH HIGHEST GUSTS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, INCLUDING
THE PARADISE VALLEY WHERE BACKED MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ORIENT WITH
THE VALLEY AXIS. EXPECT 30-40 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND
15-25 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. WITH THE WARM, DRY,
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, GRASS FIRE CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED.
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, A CHANCE (40-90%, HIGHEST OVER THE
MOUNTAINS) FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AS A SHORTWAVE EMERGES
FROM THE GREAT BASIN. THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
(30-50% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 3 INCHES) AND THE PLAINS A RAIN/SNOW
MIX AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, DROPPING
TEMPERATURES.
THE BIGGER CONCERN TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 985MB TUESDAY MORNING PER
THE ENSEMBLES (A SIGNIFICANT LOW) WITH LOWEST PRESSURES NEAR
SHERIDAN AND SOUTHEAST MT. THIS MAY SET UP A PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN
WAVE POTENTIAL IN THE WARM PRE-FRONTAL REGIME ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE BIGHORNS AND OVER THE BEARTOOTHS. CURRENTLY, GUSTS
AROUND 35-55 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY.
STRONGER WINDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF A
GUST GREATER THAN 60 MPH AT RED LODGE AND A 40% CHANCE OF THE
SAME FROM FORT SMITH MT DOWN THROUGH SHERIDAN AND STORY WY. OVER
THE REST OF THE REGION, AS THE FRONT MOVES FROM THE NW TO SE,
WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE NW. THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, INCLUDING
LIVINGSTON, BIG TIMBER, AND HARLOWTON, WILL SEE A 70-90% CHANCE OF
GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH. ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS, WIDESPREAD
GUSTS AROUND 30-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE CHANCE FOR A GUST GREATER
THAN 50 MPH AGAIN HAS TRENDED HIGHER WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS,
WITH A 20-40% CHANCE. NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDER, WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE HIGHEST IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A 50-70%
CHANCE OF A GUST GREATER THAN 50 MPH.
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SEE CONTINUED COOLER AND
UNSETTLED WEATHER UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWER
ELEVATION SNOW. MODELS SHOW A DEEP (SFC-600MB) DENDRITIC LAYER
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HIGH (NEAR 20:1) SNOW RATIOS DURING THE TIME
OF SNOWFALL, WITH S AND SE UPSLOPE AREAS FAVORED. AT THIS TIME,
1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH A 20-40%
CHANCE OF MORE THAN 3 INCHES OF SNOW. BE PREPARED FOR WINTER
DRIVING CONDITIONS! OVER THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME,
THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A WEAK SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
MAIN TROUGH WILL CONTINUE LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. THEN, BY SUNDAY, THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT FOR RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE REGION, WITH CONDITIONS
TRENDING WARMER AND DRIER. ARCHER
AVIATION
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THIS, BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. OVER EASTERN MONTANA,
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING BEFORE STRONG WINDS
MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. LOOKING AHEAD,
TUESDAY IS GOING TO BE A WINDY DAY WITH MOUNTAIN WAVE POTENTIAL
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A COLD FRONT OVER THE PLAINS. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 036/052 017/027 007/024 009/033 013/036 014/042
0/U 03/W 12/S 74/S 12/J 11/B 00/B
LVM 055 034/045 020/029 009/026 011/032 015/037 016/044
0/B 26/W 25/S 83/S 22/J 21/B 10/B
HDN 065 032/054 015/029 006/024 006/034 011/036 012/045
0/U 03/W 22/S 85/S 22/J 21/B 10/B
MLS 058 032/050 013/023 003/015 002/026 007/026 004/034
0/U 05/W 40/U 44/S 11/B 11/B 00/B
4BQ 061 038/057 018/029 006/018 003/029 009/031 009/039
0/U 04/W 21/U 65/S 11/B 11/B 00/U
BHK 057 031/054 015/024 001/012 000/023 005/025 003/032
0/U 05/W 61/Q 45/S 12/J 11/B 00/U
SHR 060 030/053 015/034 004/021 002/031 007/034 009/043
0/U 13/W 23/S 96/S 22/J 21/B 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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