423
FXUS65 KBYZ 010646
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1246 AM MDT TUE SEP 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY.
STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LATER THIS WEEK. STAY
TUNED AS CHANGES ARE LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AS THE REGION TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, SATELLITE IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND
NORTHERN WY. THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BRING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH HIGH BASED SHOWERS
EXPECTED, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS TODAY. INTO WEDNESDAY A SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE
MOVES UP FROM SOUTHWEST MT AND CLIPS THE REGION WITH A FRONT.
PREFRONTAL BREEZY WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S (MPH) THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. AS HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN, ELEVATED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS. GUSTS IN THE 40-55 MPH RANGE WILL
BE COMMON WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. ANOTHER NOTE TO ADD THAT WITH
THESE DRY CONDITIONS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE OF
CONCERN FOR THOSE WHO HAVE NOT RECENTLY RECEIVED APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION. SIMILAR BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS
WEST OF BILLINGS FOLLOWING THE FRONT THURSDAY, THUS CONTINUING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
AMONGST ENSEMBLES ON HOW FAR WEST THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS REACHES AND IF THE REGION WILL GET IN ON ANY OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PERSISTING OVER THE PACIFIC NW COAST. WITH
THIS, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL TODAY. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS (UPPER 70S) WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE
REGION IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. TS
AVIATION
A DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS (CEILINGS 12-20KFT AGL) FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND SUNRISE
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS. BY LATE
MORNING SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE COMMON THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS
WILL BECOME POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS BY 16-18Z. AT THIS TIME THE
ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO DRY BELOW 10KFT AGL TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND OVER THE PLAINS, BUT WILL NEED TO BE ALERT
FOR LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE NEAR AREAS OF
VIRGA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CHAMBERS/TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 081 057/086 058/084 055/085 055/082 057/079 058/080
2/W 12/W 20/U 00/U 00/U 12/W 32/W
LVM 083 049/079 045/075 044/079 045/079 047/076 047/076
2/T 22/T 00/N 10/U 00/U 12/T 54/T
HDN 083 052/090 052/088 049/090 051/085 055/082 055/084
2/W 12/W 20/U 00/U 00/U 12/W 32/W
MLS 085 057/090 056/087 056/088 058/085 058/081 059/082
2/E 10/U 20/U 00/U 00/U 23/T 52/W
4BQ 084 057/091 058/090 057/092 059/088 061/084 060/086
2/T 10/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 13/T 42/W
BHK 083 051/090 055/090 055/093 056/090 055/084 054/084
2/W 10/B 20/U 00/U 00/U 23/T 53/W
SHR 080 049/088 050/086 050/089 051/085 054/081 054/082
2/T 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 13/T 32/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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