724
FXUS65 KBYZ 021834
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1234 PM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS WITH
STRONG WINDS, HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY, THE 4TH OF JULY.
- HOT CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH A DAILY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK. RISK OF SEVERE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST
TODAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THIS, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH DAYS, GENERALLY
EAST OF BILLINGS.
THE AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY, WITH TROUGHING
OVER THE PAC NW AND RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OVER THE EAST ARE TRANSPORTING IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY,
WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S, AND ML CAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG OVER
THE NORTHEAST. AS WE GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION, BRINGING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA, WITH A COUPLE
DIFFERENT AREAS OF FOCUS FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. ACROSS THE
FAR EAST WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH INITIATION
OCCURRING JUST INSIDE THE MT BORDER, OR EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS,
DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT. THE OTHER AREA OF FOCUS IS
THE BIGHORN/PRYOR MOUNTAINS, WHERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON, LIFTING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS
WELL. THAT BEING SAID, WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF ONLY 20-30KTS,
CONVECTION COULD BE MORE PULSEY IN NATURE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LARGE HAIL, STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER, WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS. LOOK FOR
CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING, WITH ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
OVER THE FAR EAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. MODEST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BRING THE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF BILLINGS. SPC CURRENTLY
HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MT.
HAIL, STRONG WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE ONCE AGAIN THE MAIN
THREATS.
CONDITIONS TREND HOTTER AND DRIER FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY INTO
SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
80S TO LOWER 90S CAN BE EXPECTED. BY SUNDAY EVENING, A SHORTWAVE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST COULD BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (15-30%) FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. HOT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO 90S ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS REMAIN OVER THE REGION. THAT
BEING SAID, MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION UNDER THE RIDGE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAK SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH AT TIMES
WILL KEEP DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. ONE
THING TO WATCH WOULD BE HOW WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT TEND TO INHIBIT CONVECTION IN OUR REGION,
KEEPING A MID-LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. STP
AVIATION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN MT, CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
IMPACTFUL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF A RED LODGE TO BILLINGS TO
FORSYTH LINE. CONVECTION MAY GET GOING AS EARLY AS 19Z, BUT WILL
BE MOST ACTIVE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z.
SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES MAY CONTINUE TO REDUCE SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PM/TC
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/086 057/090 063/095 064/090 065/090 064/091 065/090
32/T 20/U 00/U 20/U 22/T 21/U 21/U
LVM 048/081 049/090 055/091 056/088 057/086 057/088 056/087
23/T 30/U 01/U 42/T 33/T 32/T 21/U
HDN 056/088 056/091 061/097 063/093 064/093 063/094 063/092
32/T 30/U 00/U 10/B 22/T 31/U 21/U
MLS 060/086 058/091 063/098 066/093 065/093 065/093 065/092
33/T 60/U 00/U 21/B 23/T 52/T 21/U
4BQ 059/086 057/091 061/099 065/094 065/093 064/093 064/092
44/T 40/U 00/U 21/B 34/T 42/T 22/T
BHK 056/084 055/088 059/096 062/091 061/090 061/090 061/090
34/T 51/U 00/U 21/B 24/T 52/T 23/T
SHR 053/084 052/090 057/096 060/091 059/091 059/091 059/090
42/T 20/U 00/U 01/B 24/T 33/T 22/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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