677
FXUS65 KBYZ 142048
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
248 PM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MT AND
NORTHERN WY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND FAR SOUTHEAST MT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR THE WEST-CENTRAL ZONES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 1"/HR RAINFALL RATES.
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THURSDAY FROM SHERIDAN TO MUSSELSHELL COUNTY AND WEST. SLOW
MOVING STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1"/HR RAINFALL RATES.
- ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND, DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER RIDGING WITH REPEATED SHORTWAVES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BE THE MAIN PATTERN THIS WEEK. HOT TO VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT
UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FROM STILLWATER AND GOLDEN VALLEY COUNTIES
THROUGH ROSEBUD AND SHERIDAN COUNTIES. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN
EFFECT FOR CUSTER, POWDER RIVER, FALLON, AND CARTER COUNTIES
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE UPPER 80S TO 100F (WARMEST IN
THE EAST). LOW TEMPERATURES IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL BE WARM
TONIGHT, IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, FURTHER ADDING TO CUMULATIVE
HEAT STRESS.
THE FOCUS CONTINUES TO TRANSITION TOWARDS A WARM AND MOIST SETUP
INTO THE WEEKEND, AS DEEP MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE SHOWN BY MODELS AND ENSEMBLES. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
THREAT FOR HEAVY TO VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE. THE LATEST
HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTH ZONES AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEST-HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) OVER THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. THE PRIMARY RISKS ARE HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
65 MPH. HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS A SECONDARY RISK.
IN ADDITION TO THE THUNDERSTORM RISK, THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5% RISK) FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM BILLINGS TO LIVINGSTON AND NORTH. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY, FOR AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-90 FROM LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS. RAINFALL RATES IN
EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE (MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE)
WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR
STORMS TODAY/TONIGHT IS 6 PM MDT TO 3 AM MDT WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR WITH SLOW-MOVING AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW THOUGH, WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY AND
MINIMAL SHEAR. THE THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS ONCE
AGAIN, WITH ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK INCLUDING AND WEST OF A
SHERIDAN COUNTY TO MUSSELSHELL COUNTY LINE. AN ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS FROM NOON MDT
WEDNESDAY TO 3 AM MDT THURSDAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING BASED ON
THE MOST RECENT HI-RES RUNS IS 2 PM MDT WEDNESDAY TO 12 AM MDT
THURSDAY.
A WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS
TONIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR GUSTS OUT OF
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IN THE 20S AND 30S MPH ACROSS THE WEST-
CENTRAL AREAS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STATIONARY FRONT DEVELOPING NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS LOOKS TO
KEEP SOUTHEASTERLY AND DRY FLOW INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA. RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S PERCENT. WINDS DO
NOT LOOK TO BE THAT STRONG SO THE NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS
IS LOW, THOUGH THE RISK FOR GRASS FIRES WILL BE ELEVATED.
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE AND UNSETTLED FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MATOS
AVIATION
BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE WIND GUSTS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE TEENS TO 20S KNOTS, OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO
THE 30S KNOTS ARE LIKELY GENERALLY NORTH OF KBIL, ESPECIALLY NEAR
K3HT. OTHERWISE, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS, LOCALIZE HEAVY
RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITY (LOCAL MVFR TO IFR) AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED HAIL IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL (LOW RISK).
TS POTENTIAL TIMES:
KBIL: 03Z-08Z
KLVM: 21Z-01Z
LA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068/090 064/093 066/097 066/098 066/095 064/089 064/087
43/T 51/B 31/U 53/T 32/T 11/B 22/T
LVM 059/088 056/090 057/094 058/094 057/092 057/090 056/085
36/T 34/T 25/T 52/T 42/T 22/T 34/T
HDN 067/093 064/094 065/099 066/100 064/095 063/090 062/088
11/B 51/B 41/U 32/T 52/T 21/B 22/T
MLS 070/099 067/096 067/099 069/100 068/096 064/091 063/087
10/U 10/U 11/U 32/T 31/U 11/B 21/B
4BQ 070/099 067/095 066/099 070/101 068/095 065/090 063/086
00/U 00/U 21/U 22/T 42/T 32/T 12/T
BHK 068/101 065/095 062/096 065/100 065/095 060/089 058/084
00/G 00/U 01/U 22/T 42/W 21/B 11/B
SHR 063/094 061/092 060/096 062/096 062/093 059/089 058/085
02/U 25/T 53/T 24/T 24/T 44/T 35/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 29>31-34-42-56>58-138-139-169-170-173-235.
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ZONES
29-34-42-63-68-141-172-173-228-235.
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES
29-34-42-56-57-64>67-138-139-141-169>173-235.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 199.
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 198-199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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