940
FXUS65 KBYZ 291632
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1032 AM MDT THU JUL 29 2021
UPDATE
QUICK UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADJUST POPS TO CURRENT TRENDS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. SOME AREAS OF SHERIDAN
COUNTY HAVE SEEN 0.50 TO ALMOST 0.75 INCHES OF WELCOME RAINFALL. STILL
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN AREAS, SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
THE REST OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION IS BELOW. STP
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER OVER OUR REGION DURING THIS PERIOD WITH WARM CONDITIONS
AND APPRECIABLE MOISTURE ALOFT. WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE CAN PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION TODAY AND OVER AREAS
SOUTH AND WEST OF BILLINGS ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
TODAY WILL BE AROUND 1.0 TO 1.5 INCHES, WHICH IS THE 99+TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STORM MOTION IS PROJECTED TO BE
VERY SLOW, SO ANY STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ALOFT AND SLOW STORM MOTION.
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA AND MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY. THESE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CAUSE DRIER AIR TO MOVE IN AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES TO DROP TO NEAR 1.0 INCH ON FRIDAY, SO RELATIVELY DRIER
CONDITIONS BUT STILL INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR THE MT/WY BORDER. IF
HEAVY RAIN OCCURS OVER THE BURN SCARS THAT WE HAVE SCATTERED ABOUT
SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY, FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
IN TERMS OF SKY COVER...TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SMOKE
FROM ONGOING FIRES IN THE REGION. CLOUD COVER WILL BE LESS ON
FRIDAY BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SMOKE OVER THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY
AND 90S FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S AND
60S TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RMS
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ORIENTATION OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHED NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION TO START THE PERIOD. THIS
LOOKS TO KEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, KEEPING ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGH TERRAIN. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE TO MOVE OFF THE TERRAIN,
BUT HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT THAT SIGNIFICANTLY.
A STRONG WAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT, FORCING
RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD, AND BEGIN FLATTENING THE RIDGE. THIS WAVE
WILL BRING STORMS TO THE HIGH TERRAIN MUCH OF THE MONDAY, WITH
STORMS SPREADING EASTWARD TO BILLINGS BY MONDAY EVENING. THIS WAVE
WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY, AS IS FULLY FLATTENS
THE RIDGE.
FLOW REMAINS FLAT AND PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER/THUNDER
POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE HOT, WITH 90S COMMON ACROSS MOST
OF THE REGION. NEAR MOUNTAIN REGIONS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE MID TO
UPPER 80S, WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. GILSTAD
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN ROUTES THIS MORNING,
BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS, AS ACTIVITY
ARE FAIRLY HIGH BASED. THEREFORE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS, WITH POSSIBLE REDUCTION OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MVFR. GUSTY
SURFACE WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ESPECIALLY AROUND STORMS.
SMOKE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY. SOME
LOCATIONS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS MAY SEE SURFACE VISIBILITY REDUCED TO
MVFR AT TIMES DUE TO SMOKE. GILSTAD
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 091 065/094 066/092 066/094 065/092 065/090 062/091
3/T 21/U 11/U 01/B 13/T 44/T 32/T
LVM 091 058/093 057/090 057/091 058/087 057/086 052/088
5/T 32/T 12/T 13/T 36/T 55/T 33/T
HDN 093 061/096 062/094 060/095 060/094 060/091 059/093
4/T 31/U 11/U 01/B 12/T 33/T 22/T
MLS 085 064/093 064/093 063/093 063/093 064/092 064/092
4/T 31/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 22/T 22/T
4BQ 089 064/088 063/091 060/090 062/092 063/088 062/090
5/T 62/T 11/U 00/U 11/U 23/T 22/T
BHK 086 060/090 060/091 057/091 058/091 061/090 061/091
3/T 51/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/T 22/T
SHR 090 059/089 059/087 055/089 057/090 057/086 056/089
7/T 64/T 22/T 11/B 13/T 34/T 32/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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