039
FXUS65 KBYZ 021142
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
542 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY DUE TO THE
HEAT, DRYNESS, BREEZY WINDS, AND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR THE LATEST AIR QUALITY INFORMATION, VISIT
AIRNOW.GOV.
- COLD FRONT TONIGHT BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY &
TUESDAY, BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.
- DRY AND WARMER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVING THRU THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING A
SHIFT TO BREEZY NW-N WINDS. ALONG WITH A VERY POOR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY THIS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CRITICAL. BY
SUNRISE THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE EAST, AND BY MIDDAY
THOSE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX, WHILE WESTERN LOWER ELEVATIONS
SEE A SHIFT TO LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE GUSTY SW-W WINDS THROUGH THE DAY. A RED FLAG
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT SO PLEASE TAKE CARE NOT TO SPARK A FIRE.
SATURDAY SAW VERY ACTIVE WILDFIRES ACROSS THE PACNW AND WE ARE NOW
STARTING TO SEE REDUCED SURFACE VISIBILITIES UPSTREAM IN THE
POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE. STILL NOT QUITE SURE HOW MUCH OF AN
IMPACT ON AIR QUALITY THIS WILL HAVE, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO
MONITOR AS THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE SOME MAGNITUDE OF
INCREASED SURFACE SMOKE IN OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. A STRONGER
FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER PUSH OF
SURFACE SMOKE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LOOK FOR TEMPS TODAY ABOUT 10F COOLER THAN SATURDAY. NEXT DOSE OF
COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES BY THIS EVENING BRINGING BREEZY NORTH
WINDS (GUSTS 25-35 MPH), AND IN FACT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER PUSH OF
COLD ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH BY DAYBREAK MONDAY (ASSOCIATED WITH
THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF). THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE,
BUT OTHERWISE THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE THE MUCH COOLER AIR
(FINALLY) FOR MONDAY & TUESDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S ON THESE DAYS, WITH MUCH COOLER NIGHTS, AS A ~1020MB SURFACE
HIGH SETTLES IN. SMOKE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE TOUGH TO
DETERMINE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO
IMPROVE THE SURFACE SMOKE BY LATE MONDAY, BUT FEEL THAT LOFTED
SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZY SKIES DUE TO THE ABUNDANCE OF
ACTIVE FIRES TO OUR WEST.
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS FOR RISING HEIGHTS WITH A TRANSITION TO
FLAT RIDGING DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. AS PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS HAVE MENTIONED, THERE MAY BE PERIODIC WEAK GLANCING
SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED DOSES OF MODEST COOL ADVECTION, BUT THE
OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS IS FOR TEMPS WARMING BACK TO THE 80S
WEDNESDAY AND LOWER-MID 90S THURSDAY TO SATURDAY. THE FLAT FLOW
SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY LATE WEEKEND INTO
THE FOLLOWING WEEK, WE MAY SEE A RETURN TO MONSOONAL FLOW WHICH
WOULD RAISE PWATS AND INTRODUCE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN.
JKL
AVIATION
SMOKE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY AS WINDS TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY. SURFACE VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO AROUND 6 MILES
IN SOME AREAS AND SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN SLANT-WISE VISIBILITY
AT ALTITUDE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. OUTSIDE OF THE SMOKE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH MIXING LATE THIS MORNING (~16-17Z).
DIRECTIONS WILL BE MIXED WITH MAINLY WESTERLY OVER THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS, EASTERLY OVER CENTRAL ZONES, AND NORTHWESTERLY OVER
EASTERN AREAS. GUSTS AROUND 25KTS ARE FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS AND SE MONTANA.
A STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS EVENING, TURNING
WINDS MAINLY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS IN THE
20KT RANGE BECOMING COMMON FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS AFTER
PASSAGE. SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS (KSHR) COULD SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY
DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE STARTING
AROUND 22Z, PRODUCING LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
THERE. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE POST FRONTAL
INVERSION TAKES HOLD. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 060/075 053/078 054/087 058/093 063/097 065/095
0/K 10/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 093 050/075 045/077 047/086 052/093 056/096 057/094
0/K 20/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 095 060/077 049/081 051/088 055/094 059/099 063/097
0/K 10/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 093 062/077 050/079 054/087 058/092 062/097 065/095
0/K 00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 093 063/078 052/078 055/086 059/091 063/096 065/095
0/K 00/K 00/U 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 094 059/077 047/077 050/085 055/090 058/096 060/094
0/N 10/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 097 058/078 047/080 050/086 053/093 057/097 059/095
0/K 00/N 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 117-123>133.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 274-284.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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