419
FXUS65 KBYZ 141042
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
442 AM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING CONTINUE THIS WEEK,
COLDEST THIS MORNING AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
- WINDY CONDITIONS OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY.
- CONDITIONS TREND WARMER AND DRIER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TUESDAY...
THE REGION REMAINS UNDER AN AREA OF WEAK FLOW ALOFT WITH A STRONG
UPPER LOW SITUATED TO THE SOUTH AND RIDGING NOSING IN FROM THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S INTO THE MORNING
HOURS, WITH PATCHY FOG FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND EAST. WITH THIS, LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. MAKE SURE TO USE CAUTION IF TRAVELING INTO THIS MORNING AS
VISIBILITY COULD CHANGE RAPIDLY.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AN
ASSOCIATED WAVE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH WYOMING LOOKS TO
BRING SHOWERS (15-30% CHANCE) TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
NUDGE HIGHER TODAY, REACHING THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. BEHIND THE WAVE, A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY, ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS (HIGHS IN THE 50S). WIND GUSTS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON, WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S MPH ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING GENERALLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
INCREASING INTO THE 60S TO 70S, WARMEST ON SATURDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT TIMES, WITH PRESSURE GRADIENTS
TIGHTENING ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING (GAP WINDS), AND ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIND ON
SUNDAY. WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND ENSEMBLES POINT TO A BREAK DOWN
OF THE RIDGE AND LARGE SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A RETURN TO
COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. STP
AVIATION
12Z TAF/AVIATION DISCUSSION...PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED FROM AROUND
09Z THROUGH 15Z OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
SHERIDAN COUNTY THIS MORNING. PROBABILITIES FOR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS BELOW 3SM ARE 30% OR LESS IN THIS AREA, BUT DOES
INCLUDE KMLS/KSHR/KBHK. OUTSIDE OF FOG, THE PROBABILITY FOR
CEILINGS UNDER 3KFT AGL ARE IN THE 20-40% RANGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN BORDER AREAS THIS MORNING, CONTRACTING INTO THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MT/NE WY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THIS LOWER CLOUD COVER ALSO COMES WITH A CHANCE FOR
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT. A
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING AN OVERNIGHT WIND SHIFT WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS 10-20KTS DEVELOPING AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059 037/057 031/069 047/073 045/066 042/070 044/063
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W
LVM 056 030/060 028/073 039/075 039/070 038/070 039/062
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 00/U 00/U 34/W
HDN 062 033/059 027/071 035/077 040/069 037/073 040/066
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W
MLS 060 038/053 026/068 039/074 045/067 040/070 044/067
0/B 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B
4BQ 060 039/054 027/070 043/076 047/069 042/074 046/070
2/W 20/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U
BHK 062 034/053 022/066 039/077 042/069 036/073 041/071
1/B 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B
SHR 059 035/057 026/071 037/077 040/070 037/074 040/068
2/E 30/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
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