327
FXUS65 KBYZ 262001
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
201 PM MDT FRI JUL 26 2024
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
THE REST OF TODAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90SF. A
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALONG WITH
THIS FRONT, AN INCREASED CHANCE (15-50%, BEST CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST. WHILE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE, SOME COULD
BE STRONG WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF 30-40F WHICH COULD HELP
AMPLIFY DOWNDRAFT WINDS IN THE 50S MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE WITH SOME STORMS BUT WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM
THE WSW TO THE NW, WITH SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FOR A
FEW HOURS.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR IN NATURE TO TODAY,
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90SF, AS WELL AS THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AGAIN BE IN THE 15-50% RANGE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
ONE LAST NOTE IS THAT WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE WESTERN US IS
SIFTING BACK INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WILL BRING HAZY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. HEAVIER CONCENTRATIONS OF
SMOKE ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS, AS THE MID-LEVEL
FLOW PATTERN IS TRAPPING MUCH OF THE SMOKE.
MATOS
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN ZONAL FLOW W/ BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS & T-STORMS ON SUNDAY,
THOUGH MUST STRESS THAT THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN TIMING OF
THIS ENERGY. PRECIP WILL BE SPOTTY AND MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY. LOOK FOR SEASONABLE TEMPS (MID 80S TO LOWER 90S).
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD AND PWATS WILL DROP ON MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO CLIMB BACK TO THE LOWER-MID 90S, W/ DEEP MIXING INTO
DRIER AIR BRINGING RHS TO THE TEENS MOST AREAS. MID LEVEL WINDS TO
~25 KNOTS SHOULD MIX TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ALONG OUR WESTERN
FOOTHILLS. OVERALL, THIS IS A DAY TO MONITOR FOR INCREASED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...THOUGH THERE IS NO FRONTAL PASSAGE OR RISK OF
T-STORMS.
NEXT PACIFIC TROF MOVES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. THIS
FEATURE HAS TRENDED A BIT SHARPER W/ TODAY'S MODEL RUNS, AND THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARMING FOR OUR EAST IS A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED. AREAS
FROM SHERIDAN TO MILES CITY EASTWARD COULD PUSH 100F, WHILE MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 90S. THE FALLING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING
PWATS WILL LEAD TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WE EXPECT A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY. TIMING OF THE FROPA (AT NIGHT)
SUGGESTS A REDUCED POST-FRONTAL WIND RISK BUT THIS IS STILL
SOMETHING TO WATCH.
CONSENSUS IS STRONG FOR A BUILDING RIDGE AND AND MORE HEAT TO END
THE WEEK. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE TO ~595DAM, AND SOME
ENSEMBLES SHOW HEIGHTS TO 600DAM BY FRIDAY OR NEXT WEEKEND. THERE
IS A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE THAT WE WILL SEE A RETURN OF TRIPLE
DIGIT TEMPS. THURSDAY & FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY, BUT AT SOME POINT
NEXT WEEKEND WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A RETURN OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND
A RISK OF HIGH-BASED T-STORMS.
JKL
AVIATION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT A
REGION ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KLVM-KBIL-KMLS-KBHK LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE OF TS AT
KLVM & KSHR THRU 03Z, AND 10% AT KBIL & KMLS. LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY WILL WORSEN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES TO OUR WEST.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL REDUCE
TOWARD MVFR IN SMOKE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY WEST OF KBIL. THIS IS
SOMETHING TO MONITOR. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/091 062/090 061/095 063/094 061/090 061/097 063/099
21/U 24/T 10/U 01/B 21/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 050/091 051/087 050/093 054/091 052/089 053/095 055/097
12/T 34/T 11/N 12/T 21/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 058/092 060/092 057/096 059/096 058/091 058/098 060/100
20/U 33/T 10/U 01/U 21/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 063/092 065/088 061/095 065/096 065/090 062/097 065/098
20/U 34/T 10/U 00/U 11/U 10/U 00/U
4BQ 063/094 066/090 060/097 064/098 063/092 062/098 065/100
20/U 34/T 10/U 00/U 11/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 061/094 062/085 058/095 062/099 061/092 059/097 063/098
11/U 35/T 11/U 01/U 11/U 10/U 00/U
SHR 055/091 056/090 054/095 057/096 057/090 056/096 058/098
21/B 24/T 10/U 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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