356
FXUS65 KBYZ 080653
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1253 AM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM, DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRE
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, AND MAY BE CRITICAL IN SOME AREAS
ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASED WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY, THEN MUCH COOLER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY; THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST AIR MASS YET OF
THE FALL. MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NIGHT.
- STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY, WITH RAIN AND WET SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
WEST OF BILLINGS. HIGHER HILLS OF SOUTHEAST MT MAY ALSO SEE
IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL. POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
RECREATION. DETAILS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VERY WARM/DRY WEATHER
TODAY AND FRIDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EAST TO LOWER 80S
WEST TODAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS/WARMING BECOME ENHANCED ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROF. THIS WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE
80S AND SOME CENTRAL/EASTERN LOCATIONS MAY PUSH 90F WITH 700MB
TEMPS TO +10C AND DEEP MIXING. IS THIS REALLY OVER A WEEK INTO
OCTOBER? MAIN CONCERN FRIDAY IS FIRE WEATHER DUE TO THE HEAT,
BREEZY WINDS (GUSTS 35-45 MPH ALONG WESTERN FOOTHILLS) AND LOW RHS
(NEAR 10%). A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO
9PM FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS...AREAS THAT DID NOT
RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN SEPTEMBER. PLEASE BE CAREFUL NOT
TO SPARK A FIRE!
COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING A SHIFT TO BRISK N-NE
WINDS AND FALLING TEMPERATURES. ONE THING TO MONITOR IS POTENTIAL
FOR MODEST MOUNTAIN WAVES IN THE LEE OF THE BEARTOOTHS AND
BIGHORNS IN THE FEW HOURS PRIOR TO THE FROPA. COULD SEE ~40 MPH
GUSTS (AND FLUCTUATING TEMPS) AT PLACES LIKE RED LODGE, FORT SMITH
& DAYTON LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, AS A TROF
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER THE PACNW (W/ ORIGINS IN NW CANADA), THE
RISK OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE IN THE WEST ON SATURDAY. IN FACT,
SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE CRAZY & BEARTOOTH ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS, AND
SNOW LEVELS MAY FALL ENOUGH TO GET A CHANGE TO WET SNOW AT PLACES
LIKE JUDITH GAP & MELVILLE BY LATE AFTERNOON. A BIG CHANGE OVER A
24-HR PERIOD.
THE COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A DEEP LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN, DEEPENING E-SE UPSLOPE WINDS IN OUR REGION
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES BRINGS THE FIRST RISK OF LOWER
ELEVATION SNOW OF THE FALL. THIS IS CONFIDENTLY THE COOLEST AIR
MASS YET OF THE FALL AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS A NEAR
CERTAINTY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY. LACK OF CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES FOR PTYPE AND POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH WILL
NO DOUBT HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF ELEVATION DEPENDENCY WHEN ALL IS
SAID AND DONE. THE WARM GROUND FROM A VERY WARM START TO OCTOBER
WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A CHANGEOVER TO WET SNOW
FOR MOST WEST/CENTRAL PARTS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY, AND ANY
ACCUMULATION BY THEN WILL HELP TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN ON SUNDAY.
LOOKING AT PROBABILITIES, THE CHANCE OF 1" OF SNOW IS 10-20% OVER
THE EAST, 50% CENTRAL AREAS (INCLUDING BILLINGS) AND 80-90% ALONG
WESTERN FOOTHILLS. THE CHANCE OF 6" OF SNOW IS 15% FROM ROUNDUP TO
BILLINGS & SHERIDAN, AND 45-55% ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY OF SPREAD IN WHAT WILL REMAIN A
COMPLICATED FORECAST. WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL (A
50-70% CHANCE OF 12" OR MORE).
A COUPLE OTHER ITEMS TO NOTE. MODELS STILL SHOW A WEAKER SPLIT
TROF OVER WESTERN MT MONDAY, KEEPING ASCENT AND THE RISK OF
RAIN/SNOW GOING BEFORE THE MAIN UPPER LOW OVER THE SW CONUS
BECOMES COMPLETELY CUT OFF. ALSO, MOISTURE FROM REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE RACHEL (CURRENTLY WEST OF BAJA) IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THRU
THE SW FLOW AND BRUSH SOUTHEAST MT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS NEAR 200% OF NORMAL IN FAR SOUTHEAST MT
DURING THIS TIME. IF LEE SIDE AIR MASS IS SUFFICIENTLY COLD FOR
SNOW, THERE COULD BE HEAVY SNOW TO DEAL WITH OVER SOUTHEAST MT,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER HILLS WHICH WOULD INCLUDE HEAVILY
TRAVELED DIVIDES (E.G. HOME CREEK & LAME DEER). TODAY'S FORECAST
REFLECTS INCREASED PRECIP POTENTIAL OVER OUR EAST SUNDAY NIGHT &
MONDAY. AGAIN, A LOT OF SMALL SCALE UNCERTAINTY TO BE WORKED
THROUGH YET.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS WITH THIS WINTRY SYSTEM INCLUDE TRAVEL, WEIGHING
DOWN OF LEAFY TREE LIMBS (CANNOT RULE OUT TREE DAMAGE AND POWER
OUTAGES), AND OUTDOOR RECREATION. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE OF
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR MOST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY
NIGHT.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WHEN EXACTLY THE PRECIP TAPERS OFF...THE
CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE MONDAY BUT LIGHT PRECIP COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 30S & 40S SUNDAY & MONDAY,
TUESDAY IS LOOKING DRY & WARMER WITH HIGHS INTO THE 50S. BY
WEDNESDAY, THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE FROM
THE NW, WHICH COULD ATTEMPT TO EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE SW CUT
OFF LOW. LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW THESE PIECES EVOLVE, BUT OVERALL
THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVE AND ON THE COOL SIDE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
JKL
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
TURN OUT OF THE WEST (NORTHWEST FOR KSHR) TODAY BEFORE DECREASING
BY THE EVENING. WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 079 051/085 051/060 033/038 028/041 031/055 038/058
0/U 00/N 02/W 9+/O 95/W 11/B 23/W
LVM 081 045/083 045/061 026/038 019/041 024/056 029/058
0/U 00/N 18/W ++/S 94/J 11/B 24/W
HDN 080 045/087 049/065 033/041 027/043 029/059 035/060
0/U 00/U 01/B 89/O 96/W 21/U 24/W
MLS 075 047/085 050/064 037/044 030/043 031/057 038/060
0/U 00/U 00/B 79/R 86/W 11/U 23/W
4BQ 078 048/087 053/068 039/046 031/042 033/059 040/061
0/U 00/U 00/B 68/R 97/W 21/U 34/W
BHK 077 045/086 050/070 034/047 029/045 028/057 035/060
0/U 00/B 00/B 58/O 97/W 21/B 23/W
SHR 081 041/088 049/067 034/042 023/040 026/058 033/060
0/U 00/U 02/W 89/O +6/W 21/U 34/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONE 117.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 123-124-126.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 274-284.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page