927  
FXUS65 KBYZ 172118  
AFDBYZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT  
218 PM MST MON FEB 17 2020  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...  
 
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS A CORRIDOR FROM HARLOWTON  
TO SHERIDAN THIS AFTERNOON, AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE  
TO SLIDE THROUGH UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL  
BE GENERALLY LIGHT, MELTING ON ROAD SURFACES, BUT MAY CAUSE  
LOCALIZED LIMITED VISIBILITY. THERE ARE ALSO CONCERNS FOR ROADWAYS  
BECOMING ICY THIS EVENING, AS TEMPERATURES FALL, AND MELTED SNOW  
REFREEZES.  
 
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE  
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, AND KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT LOOKS REASONABLY STRONG, WITH  
FAIRLY DEEP COLD AIR, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY APPEARS A BIT  
LIMITED. NONE- THE- LESS, WE SHOULD RECEIVE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF  
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA  
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT CURRENT MODEL RUNS FAVOR THE FRONT REACHING  
MT/WY BORDER. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ALSO KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE  
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH OVERRUNNING TYPE SNOW  
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE GREATLY EXPANDED POP COVERAGE  
ACROSS THE REGION FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS WELL  
AS TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT QPF ON THE LOW  
SIDE, BASED ON APPARENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE  
LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH FROPA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE  
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.  
 
AS FOR WEDNESDAY, SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH  
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE, BUT  
WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS  
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL, WITH EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE  
REGION.  
 
FROPA EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE  
EAST, WITH TEENS IN THE WEST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW  
NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS  
EAST, AND UPPER 20S WEST. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL, WITH  
LOW TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE EAST TO LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE  
WEST. TEMPS WILL MODERATE WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM  
TEENS EAST TO UPPER 20S WEST, LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS  
BELOW ZERO EAST TO LOW TEENS WEST. GILSTAD  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO  
SUNDAY BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE WESTERN GAP  
AREAS FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER AND NYE WILL SEE PERIODS OF  
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM  
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT. SOME LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH  
SUNDAY MAY EVEN TOUCH 50 DEGREES. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,  
IT APPEARS A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE WITH  
MODELS WANTING TO BRING UPPER TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION. THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF  
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN THE COMING  
DAYS. STP  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN  
A NW TO SE SWATH FROM THE SNOWIES TO SHERIDAN COUNTY, WY MUCH OF  
THE DAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OFTEN OBSCURED WITH SNOW SHOWERS. OTHER  
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS KLVM, WILL SEE LESS IMPACT FROM THE UNSETTLED  
NW FLOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING. MVFR CIGS  
OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR. A CANADIAN FRONT  
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND  
NORTHEAST AND SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR  
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF  
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. STP  

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
 
 
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON  
-----------------------------------------------------------  
BIL 016/022 004/022 008/037 020/043 025/047 028/049 031/042  
46/S 31/U 00/N 00/N 00/U 01/B 24/O  
LVM 018/029 010/026 011/040 019/044 023/046 028/046 029/037  
34/S 21/N 00/N 00/N 00/N 03/R 34/O  
HDN 013/021 003/024 002/038 015/044 021/048 025/049 028/042  
46/S 31/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 35/O  
MLS 006/011 903/021 002/035 015/041 021/044 023/047 026/040  
35/S 21/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 14/O  
4BQ 010/018 000/022 001/035 012/042 018/046 021/047 024/041  
36/S 22/S 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 24/O  
BHK 002/008 910/016 902/032 011/037 016/041 018/043 022/038  
42/S 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 13/O  
SHR 009/023 003/024 000/035 011/042 017/044 019/044 022/038  
34/S 32/S 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 35/O  
 

 
   
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
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