118
FXUS65 KBYZ 170811
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
211 AM MDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WEST OF BILLINGS.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND. 80S POSSIBLE EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- ANOTHER IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM POSSIBLE LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY...
ALL REMAINING WINTER WEATHER HIGHLITES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
THE MAIN PORTION OF OUR CURRENT WEATHER MAKER HAS COME TO A CLOSE
AS THE SURFACE FEATURE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH MT RESULTING IN SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA OF BROAD ASCENT WITH GOOD
LAPSE RATES. BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWER BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT LAST LONG. THE
OTHER THING TO WATCH FOR TONIGHT IS PATCHY FOG. WHILE WIDESPREAD
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE MAIN FLOW BEING WESTERLY, AND THUS
DOWNSLOPE, PATCHY FOG IN THE FOOTHILLS IS STILL POSSIBLE.
LOCATIONS THAT SAW ACCUMULATING SNOW DURING THE DAY TODAY HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE, HOWEVER, THESE LOCATIONS WILL ALSO BE SOME OF THE
MOST IMPACTED BY THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WHICH MEANS THAT ANY FOG THAT
DOES FORM WILL NOT BE OF ANY GREAT CONCERN.
DURING THE DAY TODAY THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH WILL BE WELL OVER THE GREAT PLANS BY MIDDAY TODAY, A SMALL
LOBE OF ENHANCED VORTICITY WILL RACE ITS WAY OUT OF THE AB
ROCKIES AND INTO MT. THIS WIL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS WHERE TERRAIN AIDS
IN LIFT. OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING NEARLY 9 C/KM LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC TO THE EL THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD, ONCE AGAIN, RESULT IN SOME SOME CONVECTIVE
TYPE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW, RAIN, GRAUPEL, AND EVEN SOME THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THIS WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE NO PROBLEM REBOUNDING BACK
ABOVE AVERAGE. BEHIND THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH PUSHING THROUGH
THE CONUS A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS
WILL BRING TEMPS BACK TO AVERAGE SATURDAY BEFORE ECLIPSING THAT
SUNDAY. ACTUALLY, EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WIL SEE
HIGHER TEMPERATURES THAN THE DAY PREVIOUS. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S F
ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS NEAR AND JUST EAST
OF BILLINGS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LATE NEXT WEEK THERE IS A GOOD SIGNAL THAT ANOTHER IMPACTFUL
SYSTEM COULD MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN, HOWEVER, THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT SOMETHING WILL BE
IMPACTING WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. SOME MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW GETTING COMPLETELY CUTOFF AND MEANDERING OFF OF THE PACIFIC
COAST BEFORE IT EVENTUALLY GETS PUSHED EASTWARDS; WHICH WOULD
DELAY ANY IMPACTS HERE. OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUING WITH THIS FEATURE MANIFESTING AS A LONGWAVE
TROUGH. MORE DETAILS WILL COME INTO VIEW AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
POTENTIAL EVENT. WMR
AVIATION
AS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT EXPECT
AREAS OF MVFR/IFR DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
SNOW. KSHR AND AREAS ACROSS THE SE CORNER OF MT WILL BE THE MOST
IMPACTED. FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 12Z,
THOUGH LOCAL IFR CLOUD DECKS MAY LINGER AROUND KSHR AND KBHK
THROUGH 16Z FRIDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED INTO FRIDAY. LOOK
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE
BRIEF MVFR LOCALLY (25% CHANCE) WEST OF A KSHR TO KRPX LINE. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048 029/062 034/073 044/081 046/083 050/079 045/062
5/J 30/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 13/W 56/W
LVM 042 022/057 030/069 039/076 043/076 045/071 039/058
6/T 40/U 00/U 00/B 00/N 14/W 56/W
HDN 050 028/062 029/073 038/082 042/084 048/082 044/064
4/J 30/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 13/W 56/W
MLS 043 025/058 030/070 039/079 044/083 050/082 047/064
0/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 45/W
4BQ 043 025/055 029/070 040/078 043/081 050/082 045/062
0/N 10/B 00/U 00/B 00/U 01/B 45/W
BHK 039 020/051 025/066 038/077 040/079 048/080 044/061
0/N 00/B 00/U 00/B 00/U 01/B 35/W
SHR 042 022/055 026/067 036/077 041/079 045/077 039/061
6/J 41/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 13/W 56/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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