245
FXUS65 KBYZ 041122
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
522 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO
WYOMING TODAY. FOR THE LATEST AIR QUALITY, VISIT AIRNOW.GOV.
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY. NEAR TO RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR AUGUST 4TH ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 100S POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THIS MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE WEEK WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 30S. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM INTO THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY. WHILE WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER, THEY WILL STILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OVER
MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING AND OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
EXIST FOR MOST, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (AROUND 15 PERCENT)
OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING, AS WELL AS OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
ALONG THE MONTANA AND WYOMING STATE LINE. AS FAR AS THE WILDFIRE
SMOKE GOES, HAZY SKIES WILL CONTINUE, WITH SOME SURFACE SMOKE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER FAR SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRY DAYS AS THE
CYCLONIC FLOW IS REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
WITH THIS, LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
80S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 80S AND 90S THURSDAY.
WHILE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ALOFT, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TEMPERATURE FORECAST
FOR THIS TIME. THIS IS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF A
SLIGHT BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE. ALONG WITH IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURE,
PERIODS OF ELEVATED WIND MAY OCCUR DURING THIS TIME, INCREASING
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST A RETURN OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY OVER THE AREA. THIS WOULD FAVOR A
DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, POTENTIALLY BEGINNING
MONDAY. WHILE THIS WOULD BRING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE
AREA, IT WOULD ALSO BRING LIGHTNING, WHICH WOULD INCREASE THE
RISK OF LIGHTNING CAUSED WILDFIRE STARTS. LA
AVIATION
12Z DISCUSSION...SHALLOW GROUND FOG IS TRYING TO DEVELOP AT KMLS,
BUT CURRENT WEBCAMS DO NOT SHOW IT OVERSPREADING THE AIRPORT.
WHILE THE ASOS IS REPORTING VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 3/4SM, WEBCAMS
SHOW THIS IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AIRPORT
COMPLEX. ADDED VCFG TO COVER THE CURRENT SITUATION AND WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. EXPECT ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP TO
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
OUTSIDE OF THE KMLS GROUND FOG, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT 24HRS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WILDFIRE SMOKE AS SOME
CONCENTRATION IS POISED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING AND INTO IDAHO AND
HAS AT LEAST SOME POSSIBILITY OF IMPACTING SOUTHERN BORDER ZONES,
THOUGH OVERNIGHT KSHR STAYED AT 10+SM. CURRENT HRRR SOLUTIONS KEEP
THE HIGHER SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS THAT WOULD REDUCE SURFACE
VISIBILITY MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT,
THOUGH THE SOUTHERN BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS COULD SEE SOME
LOW END VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS, INCLUDING THE PARADISE
VALLEY/GARDINER AREA. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 053/087 057/094 061/098 065/097 065/094 065/092
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/B
LVM 077 046/085 050/092 055/099 057/096 056/094 056/091
0/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U
HDN 079 048/088 052/096 056/100 060/098 061/096 061/093
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/B
MLS 076 049/086 055/094 059/097 062/096 063/094 064/092
0/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B
4BQ 075 052/085 056/092 061/098 065/095 065/095 065/092
0/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B
BHK 073 047/083 053/090 057/093 059/094 059/093 060/090
0/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 22/T
SHR 077 048/086 052/092 056/098 058/096 059/095 059/093
0/K 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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