851
FXUS65 KBYZ 281134
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
534 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.
- SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE 8000 FEET THROUGH MONDAY,
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3", HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 9 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE THE BEARTOOTH PASS.
- WINDY FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS AND FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WITH GUSTS
TO 30-55 MPH, GREATEST IN THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
UPDATE
UPDATED TO ADD MENTION OF FOG TO THE BILLINGS AREA THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITY AT THE AIRPORT HAS BEEN DOWN TO HALF A MILE AT TIMES
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS OTHER
AREAS AS WELL AS THOSE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE SEEN SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS MAY DEVELOP FOG AROUND
SUNRISE. FOG WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE
ARE ALREADY INCREASING AND EXPECT GUSTY WEST WINDS TO DEVELOP BY
MID TO LATE MORNING MOST AREAS. UPDATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
AMOUNTS, AS WELL AS WIND GUSTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST MODEL
TRENDS, THOUGH THIS DIDN'T SUBSTANTIALLY CHANGE THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
CHAMBERS
DISCUSSION
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW, GUSTY WINDS
THROUGH MONDAY, AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WESTERN CONUS PRODUCING A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE COOLER AIR
ALOFT WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO AROUND 8,000 FT THROUGH MONDAY.
EXPECT ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CRAZY
AND BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
ALONG THE BEARTOOTH PASS, CREATING TRAVEL IMPACTS. OTHER HIGHER
ELEVATION LOCATIONS COULD SEE 6 TO 9 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION, ALSO
LOOK FOR WINDS TO GUST AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AND UP TO 55 MPH ON
MONDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES. THOSE
RECREATING IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD BE READY FOR WINTER-LIKE
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
EXPECT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
MAINLY FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WHEN PROBABILITIES
INCREASE TO 50 TO OVER 70 PERCENT FOR WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 50
MPH. THE WINDS LOOK TO SUBSIDE ON TUESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS.
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT
PERSISTENT SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH CONTINUED LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SHEAR LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE WITH THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
WELL OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WORK
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH THE MAJORITY OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
INDICATING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON FRIDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS OVER EASTERN
MONTANA POTENTIALLY REACHING TO AROUND 90. JW
AVIATION
11Z DISCUSSION...LOCALIZED FOG HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KBIL THIS
MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS UPSLOPING
INTO THE PLATEAU THAT THE AIRPORT IS AT. KBLX VWP SHOWS WESTERLY
FLOW 10-20KTS ONE GATE UP AND ONCE THIS MIXES DOWN (MODELS
INDICATING 14-15Z) THE FOG WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE. UNTIL THEN HAVE
A TEMPO FOR 1/2SM AND 200 FEET. GIVEN THE SCATTERED HEAVY
PRECIPITATION THAT HAS FALLEN OVER THE AREA RECENTLY, ADDITIONAL
AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MID MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL PARK OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS. DISTURBANCES WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS (KLVM/K3HT), SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL AREAS (KBIL), AND ISOLATED
MORNING SHOWERS FOR THE EAST (KMLS/KBHK/KSHR) BEFORE CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FOR THE EAST. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT REDUCE
FLIGHT CATEGORIES, BUT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AT LEAST.
WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 40KT RANGE BECOMING COMMON THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SOME WITH SUNSET SUNDAY EVENING, BUT THOSE STRONGER WINDS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE INVERSION SO EXPECT INCREASING LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 048/067 052/077 053/081 055/086 058/085 056/080
3/T 26/W 31/B 21/B 22/T 12/T 42/T
LVM 056 039/057 042/071 044/075 046/080 049/078 045/076
9/T 89/T 72/T 34/T 22/T 25/T 53/T
HDN 071 046/071 050/078 051/083 053/088 056/088 054/081
2/W 14/W 31/U 21/B 12/T 12/T 42/T
MLS 073 051/071 052/077 053/083 056/088 060/090 058/081
4/W 15/W 21/U 11/B 11/U 22/T 42/T
4BQ 076 053/074 052/078 054/083 056/090 060/092 058/082
1/U 24/W 11/U 21/U 02/T 11/U 22/T
BHK 076 050/073 048/077 051/082 053/088 057/091 055/081
1/U 36/T 31/N 12/T 21/U 22/T 32/T
SHR 074 046/072 045/075 047/080 049/086 053/087 052/080
1/U 12/B 12/T 12/T 01/B 11/B 23/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
ZONE 67.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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