149
FXUS65 KBYZ 142347
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
547 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS.
- A COLD FRONT TUESDAY LOWERS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S F FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
- POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES ADVECTING
MOISTURE INTO MONTANA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BRING CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S F. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION BRINGING LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40-50%)
FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE THERE IS A 40-80% CHANCE OF GETTING GREATER THAN
0.5 INCHES OF RAIN. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
DOWNSLOPING SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S F.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION REDUCING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S F
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE WAVES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION WITH TUESDAY HAVING THE
BETTER CHANCES (60-70%). RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED WITH A LESS THAN 50% CHANCE FOR GETTING GREATER THAN
0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ENSEMBLES
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE OUT
OF THE REGION AND BE REPLACED WITH NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE HEIGHTS.
WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE, WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING INTO THE
80S AND POTENTIALLY 90S F (30-50%). TORGERSON
AVIATION
00Z DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK T-STORMS (GREATEST COVERAGE WEST OF
ROSEBUD COUNTY) WILL IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH LOCAL
MVFR AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS. SOME SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE REGION SAW FLIGHT
CATEGORIES IMPROVE TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT OVER TIME TONIGHT
LOOK FOR REDUCTIONS TO MVFR TO BECOME FAIRLY COMMON, ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z. LOCALIZED FOG MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL REDUCTIONS TO IFR,
BUT THIS IS CURRENTLY OF LOW CONFIDENCE (20% CHANCE) AT ALL TAF
SITES AND WILL BE MONITORED THROUGH THE NIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
FREQUENTLY OBSCURED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AFTER 20Z
SATURDAY, EXPECT SHOWERS AND T-STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT OVER NEARBY FOOTHILLS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
TS TOMORROW AFTERNOON IS AT KLVM & KSHR. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/076 057/084 058/086 059/080 055/080 056/084 058/088
51/B 40/U 31/B 64/T 41/B 20/U 10/B
LVM 045/077 045/082 047/083 047/078 044/079 045/083 048/087
72/T 61/U 21/B 86/T 52/T 11/U 11/U
HDN 053/078 052/084 052/088 055/081 050/082 050/086 052/090
42/W 32/W 11/B 64/T 42/W 21/B 10/B
MLS 055/077 054/084 056/087 058/080 053/081 053/084 055/088
21/B 24/T 11/B 74/T 32/W 21/U 21/B
4BQ 057/077 056/083 058/087 060/081 055/080 055/084 057/088
31/B 24/T 21/B 64/T 33/T 21/U 11/U
BHK 051/077 049/082 052/087 054/079 049/079 049/083 052/087
30/B 14/T 31/B 66/T 43/W 31/U 11/U
SHR 051/073 049/080 050/083 052/078 048/077 048/082 050/086
57/T 42/T 11/B 45/T 43/T 11/U 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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