584
FXUS65 KBYZ 110804
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
204 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MT/NORTH CENTRAL WY THIS
MORNING WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
- WARM (80S AND 90S) AND DRY THIS WEEKEND.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVING DROPPED THROUGH THE AREA LATE LAST
EVENING/EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, LINGERING OVER
THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE SHERIDAN VICINITY THROUGH ROUGHLY
NOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL,
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES MAY AFFECT NORTHEASTERN AREAS STARTING THIS EVENING. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A RETURN TO HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO 90S. STP
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WITH THIS,
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S, WARMEST
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE CHANCE OF SEEING 100F AGAIN ON SUNDAY
REMAINS LOW, BUT IS AROUND 15 TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE RIVER VALLEYS
IN EASTERN MONTANA (HIGHEST ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY).
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM, AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 80S
TO LOWER 90S, BUT THINGS COULD TREND WARMER WITH PRE-FRONTAL
WARMING. WHILE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION
SOMETIME LATE MONDAY AT THIS POINT, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. BEHIND
THIS FRONT, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA. AS FAR
AS TEMPERATURES GO, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) IS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
AS FAR AS THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL GOES, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE
(70 TO 80 PERCENT) OF SEEING AT LEAST A WETTING RAIN (0.10
INCHES) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
CHANCE OF SEEING A QUARTER OF AN INCH (0.25 INCHES) DURING THIS
TIME IS ALSO ELEVATED AT 50 TO 70 PERCENT. WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT COOLER TEMPERATURES, THE BEARTOOTH-
ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL
SNOW IMPACTS. AT THIS TIME, THE CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW LEVELS DROP
BELOW 12,000 FEET IS AROUND 65 PERCENT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND BACK AROUND NORMAL FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVITY THOUGH WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON AFTER NEXT WEEK.
ARENDS
AVIATION
THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, HOLDING ON THE LONGEST
AROUND KSHR. WITH THIS ACTIVITY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20 TO
30 PERCENT) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND KSHR AND KMLS. CHANCES ARE
HIGHER (60 PERCENT) AROUND KBHK. OVER THE MOUNTAINS, PARTIAL
OBSCURATIONS TO MOUNTAIN TOPS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF
THIS ACTIVITY, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 056/094 061/095 065/092 056/064 050/069 050/083
1/U 00/U 00/U 12/T 66/T 52/T 11/U
LVM 080 049/090 054/093 057/090 048/062 041/069 044/083
1/U 00/U 00/U 12/T 67/T 52/T 11/U
HDN 078 050/093 057/096 062/094 056/066 048/069 048/084
2/W 00/U 00/U 11/U 66/T 53/T 11/U
MLS 078 053/092 061/097 065/095 058/068 050/069 050/082
1/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 65/T 52/W 11/U
4BQ 075 053/089 061/095 067/094 059/069 051/066 050/079
3/T 00/U 00/U 11/B 44/T 63/T 21/U
BHK 075 049/088 056/093 062/092 055/069 047/066 046/077
2/W 00/U 00/U 11/B 54/T 43/T 11/U
SHR 074 047/089 055/095 059/091 052/067 044/067 044/082
4/T 00/U 00/U 12/T 46/T 74/T 21/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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