175
FXUS65 KBYZ 011844
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1244 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY; STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE.
- FOR THE 4TH OF JULY (SATURDAY), TEMPS IN THE 80S F, AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES BECOMING ABOVE
NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY UP THROUGH
IDAHO WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL MT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW OF
WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. GIVEN WARMER CONDITIONS AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES, STRONG WINDS OF 40-60 MPH
WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO BE
AFFECTED ARE RED LODGE TO BILLINGS AND ROUNDUP WEST. OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT AS LINGERING ENERGY MOVES
THROUGH UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. INTO THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY, ANOTHER
WAVE PUSHES THROUGH SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MT BRINGING
STRONG TO SEVERE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY VALUES LOOK TO MORE FAVORABLE WITH
MUCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 800-1300 J/KG AND SHEAR VALUES OF ABOUT 30
KTS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN MODELS ON JUST HOW FAR
WEST STORMS WILL INITIATE, BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON STORMS
COMING UP FROM THE BIGHORN BASIN AND OVER THE BIGHORN AND PRYOR
MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONALLY, MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MT/DAKOTAS BORDER. BOTH OF THESE
AREAS OF INTEREST SHOW INITIATION AFTER 2-3 PM MDT, LASTING LATE
INTO THE EVENING. STRONG WINDS OF UP TO 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 1
INCH ARE POSSIBLE UNDER STRONGER STORMS. FRIDAY SHOWS A SIMILAR
PATTERN WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEAST MT,
BRINGING A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS GENERALLY EAST OF BILLINGS.
CONDITIONS GENERALLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAKING FOR
A NICE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES HINT AT SOME ENERGY PASSING
THROUGH TO OUR NORTH AS WELL AS SOME SOUTHWEST FLOW WHICH IS
ALLOWING FOR SMALL PRECIP CHANCES (10-20%) SUNDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALLOW FOR WARMER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK, A SLIGHT
SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW IS ALLOWING FOR DAILY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S THROUGH
FRIDAY, WARMING INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S OVER THE WEEKEND THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TS
AVIATION
IN GENERAL, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AFTER 19Z, LIFTING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE, WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS. LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE CONTINUED THE PROB30 CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KLVM AND KBIL TAFS. SMOKE ALOFT WILL BRING
SOME SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO EASTERN AREAS, WITH
CONDITIONS IMPROVING INTO THE EVENING AS THE SMOKE SLIDES EAST.
STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/085 057/085 057/089 061/093 063/090 065/093 064/091
52/T 34/T 20/U 00/U 11/U 22/T 32/T
LVM 046/079 048/080 048/087 055/089 056/087 056/089 057/088
62/T 23/T 40/U 00/U 11/B 23/T 32/T
HDN 055/088 056/088 054/091 059/094 062/095 064/095 063/092
32/T 34/T 20/U 00/U 11/B 22/T 32/T
MLS 059/090 060/087 057/090 062/095 064/094 066/094 066/092
11/U 46/T 50/U 00/U 11/U 22/T 32/T
4BQ 059/090 059/087 057/089 062/095 064/094 065/094 065/091
02/T 35/T 51/U 00/U 11/U 22/T 33/T
BHK 056/088 056/084 054/087 058/094 061/092 061/091 061/089
02/T 25/T 51/U 11/U 12/T 22/T 33/T
SHR 052/085 053/084 052/089 055/093 059/091 060/092 060/089
22/T 33/T 31/U 00/U 12/T 23/T 43/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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