087
FXUS65 KBYZ 171024
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
324 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MOUNTAIN WAVES TODAY ALONG THE
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH AND BIGHORN/PRYOR FOOTHILLS. WIND GUSTS 50-75
MPH ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH MID DAY.
- COLD FRONT BRINGS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES TODAY. GUSTS OF 50-65 MPH LIKELY ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- AVOID STARTING A FIRE TODAY. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD IN WILDLAND GRASSES.
- LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH A FEW INCHES OF
MOUNTAIN SNOW. BLOWING SNOW CAUSING REDUCED VISIBILITY MAY
IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE IN FAR EASTERN MT (MODERATE CHANCE).
- A PERIOD OF LOWER ELEVATION SNOW AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IS
FORECAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. GENERALLY 1 TO 4 INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION, POTENTIALLY IMPACTING TRAVEL.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, THESE STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT FROM
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE MID-
DAY TODAY. OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS, THE STRONG WINDS WILL
ARRIVE WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE. LOOKING AT THE MOUNTAIN
WAVE POTENTIAL FIRST, MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY MAY BRING STRONG,
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS DOWN TO THE SURFACE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS THIS
MORNING. AS OF 3AM MST, MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY IS ALREADY
IMPACTING BUFFALO, WYOMING WITH GUSTS IN THE 30S TO 60S (MPH)
ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. AS THE STRONGEST MID-LEVEL WINDS PUSH NORTH
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS IN SHERIDAN COUNTY UP INTO SOUTHERN MONTANA WILL LIKELY
SEE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY INCREASE AS WELL. WHILE THE MID-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY WEAKER OVER THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS, THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, ALLOWING THE
RISK OF MOUNTAINS WAVE ACTIVITY TO INCREASE OVER THE NORTH AND
EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS. WITH THE MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, ERRATIC GUSTS OF 50 TO 75 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE (MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE). DUE TO THE CHAOTIC NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN WAVES, IT IS HARD TO TELL WHERE AND WHEN EXACTLY THEY MAY
SURFACE, SO PLEASE STAY PREPARED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS
DAMAGING WINDS COULD DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. ONCE THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID-DAY TODAY, THE MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
WILL DECREASE.
THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE HIGH WIND THREAT IS OVER THOUGH AS THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN BRING A PERIOD OF STRONG WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY TODAY. WITH THIS,
GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 MPH ARE LIKELY OVER THE PLAINS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER WIND PRONE AREAS. WHILE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO TONIGHT OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. WHILE THE WINDS TODAY MAY MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES, THEY WILL ALSO CAUSE
ELEVATED GRASSFIRE CONCERNS OVER THE PLAINS. TAKE CARE TO NOT
CAUSE A SPARK TODAY.
ALONG WITH THE WINDS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. OVER THE MOUNTAINS, THIS
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW. OVER THE PLAINS, PRECIPITATION
WILL START OUT AS RAIN BEFORE BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW
OVER EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA, THE STRONG DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL LIMIT THE
AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION THAT MAKES IT TO THE GROUND, BUT A DUSTING
UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE (MODERATE CHANCE) OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA, MAINLY AROUND AND NORTH OF FALLON COUNTY. SHOULD
THE PRECIPITATION BECOME SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA, THE
COMBINATION OF WIND AND SNOW MAY IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE. FOR
THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS, VISIT 511MT.NET (MT).
THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, THE
COLDEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY WHEN FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID 20S, COLDEST
OVER EASTERN MONTANA. ALONG WITH THE COLD, A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS SURFACE
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. WITH THIS, GENERALLY 1
TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST, WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS SOUTH
AND EAST OF BILLINGS. CURRENTLY, THERE IS ALSO UP TO A 50 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN 4 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
MONTANA- WYOMING BORDER. WITH THIS, IMPACTS TO TRAVEL MAY DEVELOP,
SO PLAN TRAVEL ACCORDINGLY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS
WEEKEND, ALLOWING DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN. ARENDS
AVIATION
STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE
THREAT OF THESE STRONG WINDS FIRST COMES FROM MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE MID-DAY.
OCCASIONAL ERRATIC MOUNTAIN WAVE WINDS OF 40 TO 60 KNOTS AROUND
THE BEARTOOTH, PRYOR, AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS (INCLUDING KSHR) ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MID-
DAY, MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE. HOWEVER, A RAPID SWITCH
TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THIS, GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 KNOTS ARE
FORECAST. WINDS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, HOLDING ON INTO TONIGHT OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA.
ALONG WITH THE WINDS, SNOW WILL IMPACT THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN HIGH TERRAIN
OBSCURATIONS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL
ALSO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION EXISTING OVER EASTERN MONTANA (AROUND A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR AIRFIELDS AROUND KMLS, KBHK, AND K97M). WHILE FEW
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED, A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
IN EASTERN MONTANA IF PRECIPITATION SWITCHES OVER TO SNOW
(MODERATE CHANCE). OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 016/023 007/016 005/035 014/034 012/037 020/053
2/W 13/S 84/S 11/B 11/B 00/B 00/B
LVM 045 019/028 010/026 012/032 015/036 016/040 025/052
6/W 26/S 83/S 22/S 11/B 00/B 01/N
HDN 058 014/026 006/017 002/033 011/035 008/040 017/054
3/W 12/S 85/S 21/B 11/B 00/B 00/U
MLS 055 014/022 004/010 000/025 007/025 004/029 014/043
5/W 30/U 65/S 11/B 11/B 00/B 00/U
4BQ 060 018/028 007/013 000/029 010/030 007/033 016/050
6/W 20/U 76/S 11/U 11/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 058 014/023 002/009 903/022 003/023 001/025 009/037
6/W 61/N 56/S 31/B 11/B 00/B 00/U
SHR 054 013/033 002/018 000/031 008/032 006/039 016/054
4/W 23/S 96/S 11/B 11/B 00/B 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MST THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
29>32-34-36-37-42-57-58-63-141-170-172-173-228-235.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM
MST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 33.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 56-67-138-139-169-171.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MST
THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 198-199.
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