619
FXUS65 KBYZ 221516
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
916 AM MDT FRI OCT 22 2021
UPDATE
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGE OVER MT WITH AN UPSTREAM
TROF ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE EAST WE WILL SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY & TONIGHT. BY
LATE TONIGHT WE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS REACH OUR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE, TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S). FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TODAY,
BEFORE A PACIFIC WAVE LIFTS INTO WESTERN MONTANA TONIGHT, SHIFTING
THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT, POTENTIALLY SPREADING OUT ONTO
THE PLAINS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER
OVERNIGHT. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED SATURDAY, AS TROUGHING CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS
STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S TODAY, COOLING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR SATURDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. STP
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SPLITTING TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE BEHIND SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REST OF
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ENERGY WILL SWING UP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
BRING MOISTURE INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE
STRONGEST PART OF THE TROUGH WILL STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
ONCE THE WAVE LEAVES THE AREA, THIS WILL SET UP STRONG WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND IT. MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE WITH A 110 KT
JET PUNCHING INTO NORTHWEST MONTANA. PART OF THIS JET WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA AND THUS, STRONG WIND CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOKING TO START
OVER THE WEST TUESDAY AND THEN OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD (IN THE 60S) SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH THE WARMEST DAY BEING MONDAY. READINGS WILL COOL BACK DOWN
INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONE THING THAT IS LACKING
IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE IS AN INFLUX OF COLD AIR AND A
POTENTIAL FOR A SOAKING RAIN/SNOW EVENT. TWH
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER. LOOK FOR SURFACE GUSTS TO
20-30 KTS AT TIMES ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 044/060 038/060 042/064 042/058 040/057 038/058
0/U 11/E 10/B 02/R 52/R 11/N 11/B
LVM 070 039/055 033/057 038/060 034/052 035/051 031/054
0/B 22/R 21/B 25/R 62/O 33/R 12/O
HDN 071 039/062 035/063 036/067 039/060 036/058 035/059
0/U 11/E 20/B 01/E 53/R 11/B 11/B
MLS 064 039/058 036/060 038/065 041/058 038/057 036/056
0/U 11/E 11/B 00/B 43/R 00/N 10/B
4BQ 065 039/060 039/059 039/069 041/056 036/055 036/056
0/U 00/B 31/B 00/N 44/R 00/N 10/U
BHK 061 034/051 035/056 036/059 040/054 035/055 034/054
0/U 01/N 21/B 00/N 34/R 00/N 00/N
SHR 069 037/060 033/059 033/067 036/057 033/055 031/057
0/U 11/E 41/B 01/B 64/R 11/B 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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