256
FXUS65 KBYZ 241108
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
508 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM & MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED OVER AND NEAR THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN SNOW MELT
AND INCREASE RIVER FLOWS. NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
THE WEEK WILL BEGIN QUITE WARM AND DRY. IN FACT, SOME DAILY RECORD
HIGHS MAY BE BROKEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S MOST PLACES. EXPECT MOUNTAIN
SNOW MELT AND INCREASED FLOWS ON RIVERS & STREAMS. FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, BUT BE AWARE THAT FLOWS WILL BE FAST AND
COLD.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE EMERGING FROM THE GREAT
BASIN TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK T-STORMS OVER THE BEARTOOTH-
ABSAROKAS THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING. THE GREATER CHANCE OF DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS MONDAY (MAINLY IN THE WEST) AS FLOW BACKS TO THE SW
AHEAD OF A LOW ALONG THE PACNW COAST. MONDAY WILL BE HOT/DRY AND
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE DEEPLY MIXED, SO ANY CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ERRATIC/STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
UPPER LOW WILL DIVE TO THE GREAT BASIN TUESDAY AND STALL, COURTESY
OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS SETS UP A POTENTIALLY ACTIVE WEEK OF CONVECTIVE
WEATHER, THOUGH EXACT POSITIONING OF THE LOW AND TIMING OF
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY REALLY
RAMPS UP TUESDAY AND REMAINS HIGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AS
LOW LEVEL S/SE FLOW ADVECTS MOISTURE UP THE HIGH PLAINS. ENSEMBLE
PWATS ARE IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE MAY, IN THE 0.80-1.10" RANGE DURING
THIS TIME, GREATEST IN THE EAST. AS A RESULT, WE ARE LOOKING AT A
DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS SEVERE WX (THOUGH THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL
LIMIT BULK SHEAR FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE TIME). THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO OPEN AND LIFT NORTHWARD THRU WY/MT AT SOME POINT AT
THE END OF THE WEEK. SATURDAY MAY SEE CONTINUED STORMY WEATHER OR
COULD BE MORE BENIGN DEPENDING ON WHEN THIS HAPPENS. GENERALLY
SPEAKING, WE ARE LOOKING AT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE THAT IS MUCH
HIGHER THAN AT ANY POINT YET THIS SPRING, SO BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVE/STORMY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE BUT SHOULD COOL SOME AFTER THE HOT DAYS
MONDAY & TUESDAY.
JKL
AVIATION
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS (ALONG THE MT/WY LINE) THIS AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY
DRIFTING EAST INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS (KSHR) LATE IN THE DAY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE OCCASIONAL WIND
GUSTS 20-25KTS AS THE MAIN AVIATION THREAT. FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTION IS NOT EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION TODAY. ANY CONVECTION
WILL DIE OFF QUICKLY IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 053/090 057/093 060/083 056/083 057/087 056/078
0/U 01/B 22/T 45/T 42/T 22/T 44/T
LVM 082 047/086 050/085 050/075 047/076 048/078 047/072
0/U 02/T 25/T 78/T 65/T 46/T 45/T
HDN 086 049/090 054/093 059/085 055/084 056/087 055/078
0/U 00/U 12/T 23/T 32/T 22/T 44/T
MLS 086 051/092 060/095 064/090 061/085 060/087 058/080
0/U 00/U 00/N 12/T 23/T 12/T 45/T
4BQ 085 050/091 059/093 063/087 058/083 057/085 056/079
0/U 00/U 03/T 23/T 33/T 22/T 34/T
BHK 085 050/092 057/093 059/088 058/083 056/083 055/080
0/B 01/U 00/N 11/N 12/T 11/N 24/T
SHR 082 044/088 047/090 050/081 048/081 047/084 047/076
0/U 01/U 12/T 26/T 45/T 33/T 35/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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