525
FXUS65 KBYZ 111915
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
115 PM MDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY,
WITH HEAVY SNOW OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, ACCUMULATING WET
SNOW ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, AND RAIN/WET SNOW FOR CENTRAL
LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE EAST WILL SEE OCCASIONAL RAIN.
- GOOD CHANCE OF A FREEZE ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT.
- WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH SLOWLY
RISING TEMPS.
- GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR WARMER & DRIER WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MT IS BRINGING COOL AND WET CONDITIONS
WITH THE HELP OF REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE RACHEL. MODERATE FORCING OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL MT AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR UPSLOPE SNOW FOR
EAST FACING MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS AND
SURROUNDING HIGHER HILLS. CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK GOOD AS THEY
STAND AND NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE LOW LEVELS BRINGING SNOW AND
A RAIN SNOW MIX AT TIMES FOR MORE OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE DIFFICULT AND LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE BILLINGS
AREA. AS FAR AS LIQUID PRECIPITATION GOES, THE BEST CHANCES FOR AN INCH REMAIN
FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL MT AT ABOUT 40-80%, WITH ABOUT A 20-40% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
A QUARTER INCH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SUBSIDENCE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN WY MONDAY MORNING, ALLOWING
FOR PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE REGION BY END OF MORNING. THIS SUBSIDENCE WILL
ALSO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO SOUTHERN MT/NORTHERN WY WITH WIND GUSTS 30-45 MPH
EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED IN SHERIDAN CO, WY AND SOUTHERN BIG
HORN COUNTY. HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN MOVING IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT
COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS IN THE 30S WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK. EVEN THOUGH HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD, THE SAME LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS WY,
BRINGING SMALL TO MODERATE PRECIP CHANCES TO SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTERS
SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR RIDGING, ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S. TS
AVIATION
A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS, WITH RAIN OVER THE EAST. EXPECT IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS TO BE COMMON FOR WESTERN AREAS, AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS OVER THE EAST. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP LOW
CLOUDS AROUND AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION DECREASES. NORTH TO EAST WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES INTO THE EVENING, WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
AT KSHR MONDAY MORNING. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH
TONIGHT. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032/044 030/052 032/057 039/059 034/064 043/071 046/070
+6/O 01/B 11/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 024/044 024/049 024/054 028/058 027/066 034/071 036/070
+4/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 032/046 030/053 031/059 035/060 030/066 032/074 039/072
+7/R 12/R 11/B 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 037/045 033/052 033/057 039/057 032/061 037/071 044/069
+9/R 01/B 01/B 20/N 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 041/048 035/052 036/057 041/058 033/062 040/073 046/071
86/R 23/R 12/R 31/U 10/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 032/048 029/053 029/059 034/059 028/060 033/071 041/070
99/R 11/B 00/U 21/N 10/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 031/046 029/051 031/056 035/058 028/065 034/074 039/072
93/O 34/R 44/R 31/N 00/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON MDT MONDAY FOR ZONES 29-34-42.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 40-65-66-141-228.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 63-67-68-172.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page