532
FXUS65 KBYZ 061155
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
555 AM MDT SAT JUN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH A LATE DAY COLD FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
AN AREA OF CONVECTION (W/ A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING) HAS
BEEN TRACKING WSW TO ENE ACROSS NORTHEAST MT THRU THE NIGHT,
COURTESY OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND LOW LEVEL JET, AND ACCORDINGLY
THERE IS A WIND SHIFT TO NW-N WINDS DROPPING THROUGH THE NW
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA AS OF 1130Z. WINDS ARE BREEZY AT
JUDITH GAP (GUST 27MPH) AND HAVE RECENTLY SHIFTED AT BILLINGS. ALL
MODELS SHOW A WIND SHIFT NOT MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS MILES CITY
AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT WILL AFFECT SURFACE HEATING
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. AS IT LOOKS NOW, A THERMAL TROF
WILL EXIST EAST OF BILLINGS, AS PRESSURES FALL TO NEAR 990MB IN
NORTH CENTRAL WY. INTERESTING SET UP FOR TODAY AS WE AWAIT THE
TROF ALONG THE PACNW COAST. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S OVER OUR WEST, WHILE OUR EAST SEES TEMPS INTO THE
90S, AND PERHAPS CLOSE TO 100F FROM BROADUS TO MILES CITY (SOME
HIGH RES MODELS SHOW TRIPLE DIGITS TODAY, WHICH WOULD NOT BE
INCONSISTENT W/ 700MB TEMP PLUME TO ~15C). DAILY RECORDS WILL BE
APPROACHED AT SHERIDAN & BAKER.
HEIGHTS WILL FALL LATER TODAY, WHICH ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL YIELD ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEGINNING AROUND 20Z IN
OUR WEST AND 00Z IN THE EAST. A SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM WY WILL DROP
RHS TO NEAR 10% FROM SHERIDAN TO BROADUS. THE DRY AIR AND VERY
WARM MID LEVELS WILL LARGELY PREVENT ANY PRE-FRONTAL INITIATION IN
THIS AREA. AGAIN, MESOANALYSIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED TODAY.
THE DAY1 RISK REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED, HIGHLIGHTING OUR EAST
WITH A MARGINAL RISK, AND THE FOCUS OF A SLIGHT RISK OVER
NORTHEAST MT AND WESTERN ND, WHERE MID LEVELS WILL BE COOLER. ALL
SIGNS POINT TO THIS AREA TO OUR NORTH BEING THE FAVORED LOCATION
FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. THAT SAID, REFS SHOWS A FEW UPDRAFT
HELICITY TRACKS THRU NORTHERN CUSTER CO, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THRU ROSEBUD COUNTY, ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE THERMAL TROF THIS
EVENING. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE A RISK W/ ANY OF TODAY'S HIGH-BASED
T-STORMS, BUT A BIT MORE ORGANIZATION MAY OCCUR IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. LATER IN THE EVENING, IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
THAT THE DEVELOPMENT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN CONJUNCTION W/ THE
FALLING HEIGHTS LEADS TO ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. ANY PRECIP
TODAY WILL BE SPOTTY, BUT THE CHANCES OF ACTUAL SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE OVER OUR FAR WEST LATE TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
JKL
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S CONTINUE TODAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (30-50% CHANCE) WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS FROM BILLINGS EAST, WHERE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, INCREASING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S F AND INCREASING CAPE VALUES INTO THE
1,000-2,500 J/KG RANGE NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDER. ONE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IS STRONG CAPPING. IF FRONTAL
FORCING OVERCOMES THE CAPPING, THE MAIN THREATS WITH SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE WIND GUSTS OF 75+ MPH AND 1 INCH HAIL. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF MONTANA.
SUNDAY WILL SEE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (50-80%
CHANCE) AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN MONTANA DUE TO
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AND ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND GUST OF 65+ MPH AND 1 INCH
HAIL. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND, MAKE SURE TO STAY
WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO MOVE TO A SAFE LOCATION IF A
STORM APPROACHES.
MONDAY MAY SEE A BRIEF WINDOW OF DRY CONDITIONS UNDER A WEAK
RIDGE BEFORE THE REGION COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, BRINGING DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE
80S AND 90S TODAY, DECREASING TO 60S OVER THE WEST TO LOW 80S
OVER THE EAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN INCREASE TO 70S AND
80S BY TUESDAY WITH THE WEAK RIDGE. THEN, HIGHS DECREASE TO NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, IN THE 60S AND 70S, THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. ARCHER
AVIATION
ISSUED 12Z. VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY. EXPECT BREEZY SW WINDS ALONG
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS INCLUDING KLVM (GUSTS TO 30KTS) THIS
AFTERNOON, WHILE SE WINDS GUST NEAR 35KTS NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER
INCLUDING KBHK IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE
IN THE DAY SHIFTING WINDS TO BREEZY NW-N WINDS ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS ON THE ORDER OF 20-30KTS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLATED AFTERNOON &
EVENING T-STORMS, BEGINNING ~20Z IN THE WEST AND 00Z IN THE EAST.
A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY NORTH AND EAST
OF KBIL AND UP THROUGH KMLS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN THREAT IS WIND GUSTS OF 50 KTS OR GREATER. LOCALIZED/BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. AT THIS
TIME, CONFIDENCE OF A THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING A TAF SITE IS LOW
(10-20%) SO HAVE LEFT TS OUT OF ALL 12Z TAFS.
LATE TONIGHT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES WEST OF KBIL. SHOWERS
MAY PRODUCE MVFR AT TIMES (POSSIBLE IMPACT AT KLVM) WHILE THE
HIGH ELEVATIONS BECOME OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED.
JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 056/074 044/078 055/081 051/069 047/068 047/069
2/T 25/T 30/B 02/T 66/T 44/T 44/T
LVM 081 048/069 035/073 046/071 040/059 037/061 037/062
2/T 45/T 20/B 05/T 98/T 55/T 55/T
HDN 091 054/076 042/079 052/082 050/069 045/069 045/068
2/T 26/T 50/U 01/B 57/T 44/T 54/T
MLS 096 058/078 046/077 055/084 054/070 048/069 048/068
1/B 24/T 61/U 20/B 55/T 44/T 34/W
4BQ 098 059/081 046/079 058/087 054/069 048/068 047/067
1/B 24/T 71/U 10/B 46/T 44/W 44/T
BHK 095 059/082 044/075 053/086 052/070 046/066 046/066
0/N 32/T 71/U 11/B 45/T 44/T 43/W
SHR 096 053/078 040/081 050/083 046/068 041/067 041/065
1/B 26/T 40/U 11/B 48/T 54/T 45/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
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