794  
FXUS65 KBYZ 051157  
AFDBYZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT  
557 AM MDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...  
 
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL EXIT SOUTHEAST MT IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.  
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA IS DRY BUT W/ AREAS OF UPSLOPE STRATUS  
PER EASTERLY WINDS AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. SATELLITE  
IMAGERY SHOWS SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO  
SOUTHERN ID.  
 
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT TWO  
DAYS, AND WE ARE LOOKING AT MORE SEVERE WEATHER. UPSTREAM WAVE  
WILL PROVIDE WEAK ASCENT LATER TODAY. STORMS WILL BEGIN OVER ALONG  
THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS THEN TRACK EASTWARD, AIDED BY A LOW LEVEL  
JET OVER OUR EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT. IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WX,  
MORE HEAVY RAIN IN OUR EAST WILL FALL ON ALREADY SATURATED GROUND  
TO YIELD A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY FOR CUSTER & FALLON  
COUNTIES. AFTER A BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY  
MORNING, MORE POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS ADDITIONAL WEAK IMPULSES LIFT THRU THE  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. REMARKABLY RESILIENT STORMY AND HUMID  
PATTERN OVER A STRETCH OF SEVERAL DAYS.  
 
TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO MID  
80S.  
 
JKL  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...  
 
MORE STORMS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH AN INCREASE IN  
TEMPERATURES AND IN GENERAL, FAIRLY HOT AND HUMID DAYS THAT'LL  
MAKE YOU FEEL LIKE YOU'RE IN THE MIDWEST.  
 
WEDNESDAY EVENING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD  
OCCUR OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES MOVES OVER  
THE AREA IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STORMS COULD PRODUCE LARGE  
HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.  
 
A SIMILAR STORY CAN BE TOLD FOR EACH DAY THE REST OF THE WEEK,  
THOUGH INCREASING TEMPERATURES (REACHING THE 90S FRIDAY-SATURDAY)  
MAY LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. A MORE PROMINENT UPPER TROUGH AND  
SHORTWAVE WILL SWING THROUGH SATURDAY, BRINGING WITH IT A COLD  
FRONT THAT WILL SLIGHTLY COOL US OFF, BUT ALSO COULD PROVIDE A  
PROMINENT SOURCE OF LIFT FOR HIGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SATURDAY.  
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. UPPER RIDGING LOOKS TO  
BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY  
CONDITIONS.  
 
VERTZ/RMS  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
THUNDERSTORMS W/ HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR-IFR WILL EXIT FAR SOUTHEAST  
MT BY 14Z. FURTHER WEST, THERE ARE AREAS OF UPSLOPE STRATUS  
PRODUCING MVFR CEILINGS, WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU THE  
MORNING. BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WE EXPECT MORE THUNDERSTORM  
ACTIVITY SPREADING WEST TO EAST. STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE  
HAIL AND STRONG WINDS, ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING. JKL  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
 
 
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON  
-------------------------------------------------------  
BIL 079 061/086 062/088 062/091 062/089 061/085 058/084  
3/T 32/T 33/T 23/T 22/T 22/T 11/U  
LVM 080 054/085 055/087 054/089 055/087 053/084 051/084  
5/T 24/T 45/T 33/T 23/T 21/U 11/U  
HDN 083 060/088 061/090 060/092 060/092 059/087 057/085  
3/T 31/U 33/T 22/T 12/T 21/U 11/U  
MLS 084 063/084 065/088 064/090 065/090 064/084 060/083  
5/T 61/B 35/T 32/T 22/T 21/B 21/U  
4BQ 086 062/084 064/089 064/091 065/092 063/086 060/084  
4/T 52/T 24/T 22/T 11/U 21/U 21/U  
BHK 081 061/081 062/085 063/088 065/090 061/081 058/081  
6/T 73/T 35/T 42/T 22/T 32/T 21/U  
SHR 086 059/086 059/089 059/090 060/092 058/084 057/083  
4/T 33/T 34/T 22/T 11/U 12/T 21/U  
 

 
   
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 435 IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MDT THIS  
MORNING FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.  
WY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
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