087
FXUS65 KBYZ 231114
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
514 AM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING INTO SATURDAY MORNING BRINGS
LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN/HIGHER FOOTHILLS SNOW;
GREATEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXPECTED WEST OF BILLINGS, WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION OVER SE MONTANA.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM
SHERIDAN COUNTY EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SE MONTANA.
- WINDY CONDITIONS (GUSTS 25-45 MPH) EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 50S) THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS (20-50% PRECIPITATION CHANCES) LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
UPDATE
LATEST 300MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN 80KT SOUTHERLY JET LIFTING FROM
UT/CO INTO SOUTHWEST WY, ON THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE MAIN UPPER
LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN. FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING MORE DIFFLUENT
OVER OUR REGION, AND WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS EKE
INTO THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKAS (THOUGH MAIN AREA OF PRECIP IS
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST). WITH THE INCREASING LARGE SCALE
ASCENT SHOULD COME EXPANDING SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WEST HALF OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING, WHICH MAY INCLUDE BILLINGS BETWEEN ROUGHLY
14-18Z. GREATER CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL OF COURSE BEGIN THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT ARRIVES. THIS FRONT
IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE AB/MT BORDER. FREEZING LEVELS WILL FALL
QUICKLY LATE TODAY AND BELIEVE A MIX WITH OR CHANGEOVER TO WET
SNOW WILL OCCUR AT JUDITH GAP BY MID AFTERNOON, AND LIVINGSTON
BEFORE SUNSET. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TRAVEL WILL
LIKELY BECOME DIFFICULT FAIRLY QUICKLY THROUGH JUDITH GAP AS WELL
AS OVER BOZEMAN PASS AND POSSIBLY ON US-191 THROUGH MELVILLE.
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO EITHER THE
WINTER WX ADVY FOR JUDITH GAP OR THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR
SOUTHEAST. REGARDING FIRE WX, EXPECT TEENS RHS WITH NEAR RECORD
DAILY HIGH TEMPS TODAY ALONG WITH BREEZY AND WELL-MIXED SW
WINDS...THEN A LATE DAY WIND SHIFT WITH THE FROPA.
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ADJUSTED POPS/WX/TEMPS A BIT TO GET A
QUICKER CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AT THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS. ALSO
DROPPED EXPECTED TDS/RHS TODAY FROM SHERIDAN ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT.
IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH SHR TODAY WITH MIXED SW WINDS
EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIGHORNS. OVERACHIEVING TEMPS
ARE A GOOD BET AND HAVE ALSO RAISED TEMPS A BIT IN THIS AREA.
JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
EARLY THIS MORNING, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN
PUSHES THIS DIRECTION, INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY, A CANADIAN TROF SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BRINGING COLDER AIR AND ADDITIONAL UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
PRECIPITATION. THEN, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
OF 30 TO 45 MPH, 40 TO 55 MPH OVER THE FOOTHILLS, AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES.
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER THE WEST THIS MORNING AND
GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE COOLING TEMPERATURES
MAY ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
EVEN ALL SNOW OVER THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS. WITH THE BREEZY WINDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW BY LATE AFTERNOON, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR JUDITH GAP FROM 3 PM TODAY THROUGH 6 AM
SATURDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHER FOOTHILLS. CURRENTLY, 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE MOUNTAINS.
SHERIDAN CO WY AND FAR EASTERN MONTANA REMAIN HOT AND DRY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY, WITH A CHANCE (10-40%) OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
NOT ARRIVING UNTIL THIS EVENING. PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT, BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH SET UP EAST OF A SHERIDAN
TO BAKER LINE BY LATE MORNING. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE BIGHORN FOOTHILLS WITH THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS, WHICH WOULD BRING STRONGER GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
THEN, AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING, WINDS TURN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WITH THE HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 9 PM TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS EARLY SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ANOTHER
UPPER LOW CLIPS SOUTHEAST MONTANA, ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE (20-50%)
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEN, A PACIFIC TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE IN TUESDAY, BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE (30-60%) FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND COOLING TEMPERATURES INTO
THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THIS PACIFIC TROUGH, BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALLOWING AT LEAST A LITTLE SNOW AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. ARCHER
AVIATION
UPDATED 11Z.
VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THRU THE MORNING, WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG (15% CHANCE) EAST OF
KBIL UNTIL 15Z. APPROACHING DISTURBANCES FROM THE SW AND NW WILL
BRING A VARIETY OF AVIATION IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRIOR
TO A COLD FRONT, EXPECT SW-W WINDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS INTO SOUTHEAST MT WITH GUSTS 20-40 KNOTS FROM KLVM TO
KSHR, K00F, K97M & KBHK (WINDS IN THE LEE OF THE BEARTOOTHS &
BIGHORNS WILL BE ERRATIC). BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A SHIFT TO
BRISK NW WINDS GUSTING 25-40 KNOTS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS THE
FRONT ARRIVES SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
WEST, THEN OVER WEST/CENTRAL PARTS TONIGHT. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME
OBSCURED IN SNOW, AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS (KLVM-K6S0-KHWQ) WILL SEE
RAIN SHOWERS SWITCH TO WET SNOW AND REDUCTIONS TO MVFR-IFR. VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE EAST (ROSEBUD COUNTY EASTWARD) THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS SHOULD SEE DRYING AND A TRANSITION
BACK TO VFR LATE TONIGHT. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 033/052 030/050 031/050 033/054 034/051 030/046
7/W 90/U 00/U 00/B 13/W 53/W 11/B
LVM 056 022/048 022/048 023/051 026/053 025/048 023/047
+/O +0/U 00/U 00/U 26/W 63/J 22/J
HDN 073 028/054 025/055 030/055 030/057 030/053 025/049
5/W 90/U 00/U 11/B 13/W 63/W 11/B
MLS 077 033/049 030/053 033/048 032/053 032/049 028/047
0/N 70/B 00/U 22/W 22/W 43/W 11/B
4BQ 080 035/049 031/050 033/047 032/056 033/051 030/049
0/N 20/U 02/W 31/E 22/W 43/W 11/B
BHK 083 029/048 023/050 026/043 024/049 027/050 024/047
0/N 20/N 01/B 43/W 31/B 54/W 21/B
SHR 076 026/051 024/053 027/053 028/057 028/053 025/051
0/N 50/U 00/B 11/B 12/W 53/W 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR ZONE 63.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR ZONES 131-133.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
TONIGHT FOR ZONE 274.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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