249
FXUS65 KBYZ 261941
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
141 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE
RIVER FLOWS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES ARE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/WESTERN MONTANA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL/WESTERN WYOMING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (WIND GUSTS) AND MODERATE RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE FORECAST.
- POTENTIAL FOR COOLER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY...
A PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK, WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION UNDER BROAD
DIFFLUENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING INTO EASTERN MT WILL KEEP HIGHER HEIGHTS IN PLACE. THIS
WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO 90S MOST DAYS,
GENERALLY WARMEST OVER THE EAST. SOUTHEAST TO EAST FLOW WILL KEEP
BREEZY CONDITIONS IN PLACE EAST OF BILLINGS, WHERE DAILY GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO GREEN UP.
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS ARE EXPECTED (0.75 TO 1 INCH MOST DAYS),
FORCING WILL BE MAINLY WEST OF THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-40% CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS,
GREATEST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN AREAS. STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS
AND MODERATE RAINFALL. THERE IS CURRENTLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVER OUR FAR WEST TODAY, WITH WIND BEING THE MAIN
THREAT.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES HAVE
REMAINED IN AGREEMENT IN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING FROM
CALIFORNIA NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY, THIS PATTERN
LOOKS TO BRING A COOL DOWN (TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 70S) WITH
INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STP
AVIATION
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
30 KTS COMMON. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS (KLVM AND KBIL) OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
(KSHR AND KMLS) INTO WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE MAIN THREATS WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 50 KTS AND SMALL HAIL. LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
UNDER THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEE THE MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM
TIMING BELOW. ARCHER
KLVM: 20Z-02Z 30% CHANCE
KBIL: 22Z-04Z 30% CHANCE
KSHR: 21Z-03Z 15% CHANCE
KMLS: 23Z-02Z 10% CHANCE
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/090 061/094 062/093 060/082 053/076 050/077 050/080
22/T 10/U 00/U 27/T 64/T 34/T 32/T
LVM 048/083 047/089 054/085 050/071 043/068 041/071 042/076
33/T 11/B 13/T 49/T 76/T 45/T 32/T
HDN 054/091 055/095 060/094 059/083 051/077 049/078 048/080
21/B 10/B 00/U 27/T 64/T 34/T 32/T
MLS 063/094 065/094 066/093 064/088 055/080 052/078 051/080
20/N 00/N 00/B 17/T 64/W 33/W 32/W
4BQ 062/090 065/090 064/091 062/085 054/079 052/078 050/079
20/N 00/N 00/B 26/T 44/W 44/T 33/T
BHK 059/090 061/090 061/089 061/086 055/081 051/079 050/079
00/N 00/N 00/N 16/T 44/W 33/W 23/T
SHR 052/085 052/088 052/088 051/080 044/076 044/075 043/077
22/T 11/B 02/T 27/T 55/T 46/T 44/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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