312
FXUS65 KBYZ 200753
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
153 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- HIGHS NEAR 90 EAST OF BILLINGS TODAY.
- MUCH COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA/CRAZY MOUNTAINS, ABOVE 8000 FEET, SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...
TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS CREATING SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION, CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
CURRENTLY, 700 MB FRONTOGENESIS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
MAINLY FOR FAR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE REGION
(LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON AREAS). THIS ENERGY WILL LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR GOOD SHEAR (35-45 KTS) AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY (500-1500 J/KG MUCAPE) IN PLACE BRINGING A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION WITH A FEW BEING STRONG TO
SEVERE. THE REGION AS A WHOLE IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH EAST CENTRAL MT UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
(2/5). THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE HAIL, STRONG
WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S WEST TO LOW
90S IN FAR EASTERN MT. FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL MOVE THROUGH AS A RESULT OF THE APPROACHING LOW
MAKING ITS WAY INLAND. THIS WILL BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS WELL AS
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STRONG ONES POSSIBLE, MAINLY EARLY IN THE
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AS A RESULT OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S. AN ADDITIONAL NOTE THAT AS
COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN, LOWER SNOW LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR SNOW
TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING IN THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS ABOVE 7500-8000
FT SATURDAY NIGHT. MAKE SURE TO PLAN AHEAD IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS ALONG THE BEARTOOTH PASS. TS
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPPER LOW STILL ON TRACK TO BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AND ALSO LEAVE US OUT OF THE BEST
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL THIS SYSTEM HAS TO OFFER. THE LOW COMES
INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND THEN EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO
S. CANADA BY MONDAY, LEAVING OUR AREA ON THE DRIER SIDE. THERE IS
A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE/FRONTOGENESIS AREA THAT DEVELOPS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THAT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING THE BILLINGS AREA. NBM IS SHOWING AROUND
A 60% CHANCE FOR A QUARTER OF AN INCH IN THIS AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, WITH 40% FOR HALF AN INCH, AND 15% FOR AN INCH OR
MORE. WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED, MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, THIS WILL BE THE MAIN PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ENTER A WARMING TREND FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S MONDAY CLIMB ABOUT 5
DEGREES EACH DAY REACHING THE MID 80S BY THURSDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW
FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA/CRAZY
MOUNTAINS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 3 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE ABOVE 8000
FEET, INCLUDING OVER THE BEARTOOTH PASS. WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BEARTOOTH PASS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, SO PLAN ACCORDINGLY IF HEADING TO THE HIGH COUNTRY THIS
WEEKEND. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERD CONVECTION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXPAND WESTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA (HARLOWTON
EAST TO BAKER). LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CORES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 082 056/075 048/061 042/071 048/077 052/079 055/086
2/T 62/W 77/T 21/U 12/T 23/T 21/U
LVM 082 046/068 040/057 034/069 040/075 044/079 048/085
5/T 83/T 79/T 31/U 12/T 23/T 22/T
HDN 086 056/078 048/062 040/073 048/078 051/080 053/086
2/T 52/W 77/T 31/U 22/T 34/T 21/U
MLS 089 059/078 050/062 043/071 050/077 053/079 056/085
2/T 43/T 66/T 21/U 24/T 44/T 32/T
4BQ 090 059/079 051/063 043/070 051/076 054/077 056/081
1/U 11/U 53/T 21/U 34/T 44/T 42/T
BHK 087 058/079 050/064 042/068 048/072 050/075 053/079
4/T 11/B 54/W 21/U 24/T 44/T 42/T
SHR 085 052/078 045/062 038/071 046/076 048/076 049/082
2/T 12/T 67/T 31/U 24/T 35/T 32/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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