565
FXUS65 KBYZ 130851
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
151 AM MST THU NOV 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY; A FEW
DAILY RECORD HIGHS MAY BE APPROACHED.
- STRONG WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY;
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ON I-90 THROUGH LIVINGSTON.
- WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS COOLER (BUT NOT COLD) TEMPS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY; TEMPS REMAIN
WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER SYSTEM DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, BUT HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS
TIME.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
WINDS: HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON & THE BEARTOOTH
FOOTHILLS FROM 5PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 8PM FRIDAY EVENING. LEE
SIDE PRESSURES ARE FALLING, AND THE 08Z IDA-LWT GRADIENT IS 7MB.
WE ARE SEEING 30-40 MPH GUSTS AT LIVINGSTON AND NEAR NYE BUT
THINGS ARE JUST GETTING STARTED. MIXED SW WINDS SHOULD PUSH 50 MPH
DURING THE DAY, THEN BY THIS EVENING THE STRONGEST GAP FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN, WITH WSW 700MB FLOW INCREASING TO ~50 KNOTS, A
GRADIENT NEAR 12MB, AND SUFFICIENT STABILITY. GUSTS OVER 50 MPH
ARE A CERTAINTY, 60+ MPH GUSTS ARE LIKELY (70% CHANCE) AND THERE
COULD BE A FEW GUSTS NEAR 70 MPH (20% CHANCE). STABLE WINDS
TONIGHT WILL EVOLVE TO MIXED PRE-FRONTAL WINDS TOMORROW, WITH
ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO KEEP GUSTS IN THE 50-60 MPH RANGE. A
COLD FRONT'S ARRIVAL EARLY FRIDAY EVENING WILL PUT AN END TO THE
GAP FLOW. THE US-191 CORRIDOR WILL SEE MIXED WINDS TOMORROW
REACHING 50+ MPH (60% CHANCE) BUT DON'T FEEL THERE IS ENOUGH WIND
TO SUPPORT HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA GUSTS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS THE FRONTAL TIMING WILL PLAY A ROLE. BY EVENING THE
PRESSURE RISES FROM THE NORTH WILL NOT ALIGN WITH BIG TIMBER &
HARLOWTON, SO NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POST-FRONTAL WINDS
HERE. FINALLY, THE WSW FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP WARRANTS KEEPING AN
EYE ON LOCATIONS PRONE TO SEE MOUNTAIN WAVES, I.E. RED LODGE AND
SHERIDAN. FEEL THAT GUSTS WILL BE ENHANCED HERE BUT THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY WILL BE AN INHIBITOR. EARLY MORNING FRIDAY AND PERHAPS
A SHORT PRE-FRONTAL TIME IN THE EARLY EVENING MAY BE THE MOST
IMPORTANT TIMES TO WATCH FOR THIS. AS IT LOOKS NOW, EXPECT 30-45
MPH GUSTS ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE BEARTOOTHS & BIGHORNS, AS
WELL AS AT FORT SMITH AT THE EXIT OF BIGHORN CANYON.
TEMPS: STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP US VERY WARM THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH INCREASING WINDS KEEPING NIGHTS PROGRESSIVELY WARMER.
SOME LOCATIONS WILL STAY ABOVE 50F TONIGHT. A FEW DAILY MAX TEMP
RECORDS WILL BE CHALLENGED BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY AT
BILLINGS, MILES CITY AND BAKER WHERE RECORDS ARE LOWEST. OVERALL,
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S THESE NEXT TWO DAYS. IS IT
REALLY MID-NOVEMBER?
PRECIP: TODAY THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AS WE AWAIT THE
UPSTREAM PACIFIC TROF. A LARGE PORTION OF THIS TROF WILL SPLIT AND
DROP TO THE CA COAST TOMORROW, AND A MUCH WEAKER NORTHERN WAVE
WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF MOUNTAIN SNOW (2-4" ABOVE 7500') AND
SCATTERED LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE SOME
ENHANCEMENT ALONG A MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NORTH AND
EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, AS SURFACE WINDS VEER TO THE
N-NE, BUT MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT HERE.
THE WEEKEND: LOOKING DRY AFTER EARLY SATURDAY AS WE UNDERGO
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHORTWAVE RIDGING. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BUT
REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES FAVOR EASTERLY
SURFACE WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
NORTHEAST MT AND FALLING PRESSURES TO OUR SOUTHWEST. THE EC SHOWS
A LEE SIDE TROF AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL BE A FACTOR IN NOT
ONLY TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS, BUT CHANCES OF PRECIP AND PTYPE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE CUT OFF LOW TO OUR SW LIFTS THRU THE GREAT
BASIN. WE SHOULD SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT, BUT W/O A REAL PUSH OF COOLER AIR THE EXPECTATION IS FOR
LOWER ELEVATION PRECIP (IF THERE IS SOME) TO REMAIN RAIN.
NEXT WEEK: HIGH CONFIDENCE IN COOLER & UNSETTLED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AS THE FIRST TROF MOVES TO THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE
NEXT PACIFIC TROF MOVES SLOWLY INLAND. PWATS LOOK QUITE HIGH (2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL) COURTESY OF A SUBTROPICAL FETCH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INITIAL CA LOW. DETAILS REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN BUT THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE OF PRECIP EACH OF THESE
DAYS, WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO NEAR OR POSSIBLY A LITTLE COOLER THAN
NORMAL. WE ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WET SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE CURRENT PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE SNOW AT BILLINGS IS 45%.
STAY TUNED.
JKL
AVIATION
09Z DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD ACROSS THE
REGION. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AROUND
KLVM AFTER 21Z. THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA WILL BE
PARTIALLY OBSCURED AFTER 18Z.
A LEVEL 4 GEOMAGNETIC STORM IS ONGOING ACCORDING TO THE SPACE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER. THIS COULD HAVE IMPACTS TO SOME RADIO
FREQUENCIES AND AIRCRAFT FLYING AT HIGH ALTITUDES. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 051/068 042/061 035/054 036/047 031/043 029/045
0/U 01/N 20/B 00/B 34/W 43/W 22/W
LVM 067 050/062 039/058 034/056 034/048 028/045 027/047
0/N 13/W 20/B 01/B 45/W 53/W 22/W
HDN 070 043/070 038/059 033/056 033/047 029/043 025/045
0/U 01/B 41/B 00/B 34/W 53/W 32/W
MLS 066 038/068 035/053 030/053 032/043 028/040 025/043
0/U 01/E 30/B 00/B 13/W 32/W 11/B
4BQ 067 041/069 038/056 033/056 035/044 029/040 025/044
0/U 00/B 30/B 00/B 23/W 32/W 11/B
BHK 066 038/068 032/050 028/053 029/043 024/039 022/042
0/U 00/B 30/B 00/B 13/W 32/W 11/B
SHR 069 038/070 038/057 030/056 032/047 025/044 022/045
0/U 00/B 30/B 00/B 24/W 43/W 22/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page