306
FXUS65 KBYZ 241916
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
116 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCREASED RISK OF
HEAT RELATED HEALTH IMPACTS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
- LOW RISK (10-30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE NEXT 7 DAYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A LARGELY STAGNANT WEATHER
PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TO EXTREME
TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH 90S TO NEAR 110 F. PWATS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 150% OF NORMAL PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEPLY MIXED INVERTED V SOUNDINGS MEANING
STRONG WIND GUSTS >60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A RISK LEVEL
1 OF 5 FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY
SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN HAZARD. SEVERE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED.
THE COMBINATION OF MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS, AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
INCREASED LIGHTNING DENSITY AND STRONG WINDS WILL LEAD TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL SEE SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO SATURDAY WITH LOWER THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL BRINGING
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THERE IS GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
FEATURE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS LEADS TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO LOW
100S F. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE TEENS AND LOW 20S %. WITH TEMPERATURES DRYING OUT FUELS,
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE LACK OF STRONG
WINDS WILL BE ONE FACTOR HELPING TO LOWER FIRE RISK. NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE PWAT VALUES DURING THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
DAILY ELEVATED MOISTURE LEADING TO LOW (10-20%) DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH ANY OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
FINALLY FOR THOSE KEEPING UP ON THE JULY 25TH DRAMA. BILLINGS
AIRPORT HAS NEVER (SINCE 1934) REACHED 100F ON THIS DATE, BUT IT
REALLY SHOULD HAPPEN THIS YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR 102F,
CONSISTENT WITH 700MB TEMPS OF +16C AND DEEP MIXING. WITH THE
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT AND EVENTUAL CONVECTION ON SATURDAY, IT IS
AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE THAT CLOUD COVER HOLDS BACK SURFACE HEATING
JUST A BIT. THE JULY 25TH RECORD IS 98F, SO IT IS POSSIBLE TO
BREAK THE RECORD AND STILL NOT REACH 100F. STAY TUNED.
LT/JKL
AVIATION
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS. WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES WILL
REDUCE SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY AT TIMES. HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE AT TIMES. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 069/102 068/099 068/096 067/098 068/099 067/097 068/098
13/T 41/U 20/U 10/U 21/U 10/U 10/U
LVM 060/099 059/097 058/095 057/095 058/095 057/096 059/096
14/T 32/T 21/U 10/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
HDN 065/104 065/100 066/097 065/100 065/100 064/100 065/100
12/T 20/U 20/U 11/U 11/U 11/U 11/U
MLS 068/106 072/101 070/099 068/101 070/101 068/100 070/099
10/G 20/G 20/U 11/G 21/G 21/U 11/U
4BQ 069/104 070/100 070/098 068/099 069/099 068/098 069/098
00/G 20/U 31/U 12/T 31/U 21/U 11/U
BHK 065/107 068/102 066/100 064/099 065/100 064/098 064/096
00/G 20/G 21/U 11/U 23/T 21/U 21/U
SHR 063/099 063/097 063/094 062/096 062/096 062/096 063/096
21/B 21/U 21/U 12/T 12/T 11/U 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 29>34-36-37-42-57-58-138-139-169-170-173-235.
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
40-56-63>66-141-172-228.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 123>133.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
199.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 274-284.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page