317
FXUS65 KBYZ 241246
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
646 AM MDT SAT OCT 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WINDS DECREASE TODAY.
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S) THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS (20-50% PRECIPITATION CHANCES) LATE SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
UPDATE
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER WNW FLOW SPREADING
THRU MT IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S WEATHER SYSTEM, AND A LOW
CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. CLOUD COVER EXISTS OVER
THE EAST HALF OF OUR CWA BUT EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EVERYWHERE
BY SUNRISE. AS TEMPS FALL TOWARD 20F IN THE WEST CANNOT RULE OUT
LOCALIZED FOG EARLY. THIS MAY INCLUDE LIVINGSTON.
COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
HERE ARE A FEW ITEMS OF NOTE AND WORTH MONITORING. (1) MODELS ARE
COMING MORE IN LINE SHOWING THE SW LOW LIFTING FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO
BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO FAR SOUTHEAST MT LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BE COLD ENOUGH (W/ EASTERLY WINDS) FOR
A MIX WITH WET SNOW OVER THE HIGHEST HILLS, SUCH AS THOSE AROUND
EKALAKA. AT THE VERY LEAST IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE LOW
CLOUDS/FOG TO DEAL WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AGAIN W/ PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW, NOT ONLY IN THE EAST BUT ALSO PERHAPS ALONG WESTERN
FOOTHILLS. (2) NEXT PACIFIC WAVE REACHES SOUTH CENTRAL MT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE WEST
INTO TUESDAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLDER MID LEVELS SUGGEST
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER FAVORED SW-NW ASPECTS OF THE BEARTOOTH-
ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MTNS. LOOK FOR 2-5" OF ACCUMULATION WITH A 20%
CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 5". (3) AS THE TUESDAY SHORTWAVE TRACKS
EASTWARD IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HIGHER HILLS OF SOUTHEAST MT SEE SOME
WET SNOW.
JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE CURRENT WEATHER SYSTEM EXITS THIS MORNING, ENDING THE CURRENT
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL LINGER LONGEST OVER THE EAST BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THIS WEEKEND, IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AN UPPER LOW CLIPS SOUTHEAST MONTANA,
ALLOWING FOR A CHANCE (20-50%) OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. AS TEMPERATURES DECREASE OVERNIGHT, RAIN WILL CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW, ALTHOUGH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE FOR MORE THAN A 0.1" OF
SNOW OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER HILLS.
LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BRING A BETTER CHANCE (30-50% OVER THE PLAINS, 60-80% OVER THE
MOUNTAINS) FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE
40S TO LOW 50S. WHILE THE EXACT TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT, AND THERE IS CURRENTLY A 20-50% CHANCE OF MORE
THAN 0.25" OF RAIN AND SWE OVER THE PLAINS, HIGHEST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHEN LOWS ARE IN THE
20S TO LOW 30S, SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY FALL AS SNOW OVER
THE PLAINS. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 10-30% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 0.1"
OF SNOW OVER THE PLAINS. ABOVE 7,000 FT, THERE IS A 40-60% CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST 4" OF SNOW.
FOR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP,
ALLOWING FOR OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE.
ARCHER
AVIATION
10Z DISCUSSION. LIGHT PRECIP HAS TAPERED OFF AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS CLEARING SPREADING WEST TO EAST. MVFR CEILINGS EAST OF KBIL
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE 10-14Z TIME FRAME. THERE IS A LOW
(10%) RISK OF VALLEY FOG IN THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KLVM. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY AND
TONIGHT UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. BREEZY NW WINDS WITH
GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS EAST OF KBIL WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051 028/047 032/051 032/052 035/054 030/049 031/050
0/U 00/U 10/B 14/W 41/B 11/B 11/B
LVM 046 022/045 022/049 027/047 025/051 024/050 025/052
0/U 00/U 00/U 36/W 41/B 21/B 22/W
HDN 054 024/052 032/056 029/053 029/056 025/052 026/052
0/U 00/B 10/B 15/W 41/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 049 028/052 034/046 029/049 032/052 027/050 029/051
0/U 00/B 31/E 04/W 42/W 10/B 11/B
4BQ 049 032/048 033/045 030/052 033/053 029/054 032/054
0/U 01/B 52/W 04/W 32/W 10/B 10/B
BHK 049 022/049 025/042 022/047 026/052 022/052 025/052
0/N 00/B 62/W 12/W 33/W 10/B 11/B
SHR 050 024/050 028/053 026/053 027/055 025/055 026/055
0/U 01/B 20/B 05/W 31/B 11/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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