816
FXUS65 KBYZ 312032
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
232 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT & DRY SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT; FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS CRITICAL. SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
- WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. MUCH COOLER MONDAY & TUESDAY.
- INCREASED SURFACE-BASED SMOKE MAY REDUCE AIR QUALITY LATTER HALF
OF WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL WORK INTO THE REGION SATURDAY BRINGING
EXTREMELY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS. AS SHOWN IN THE
TABLE BELOW, BOTH DAILY RECORD HIGHS AND ALL TIME AUGUST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME CLIMATE SITES. THIS AIRMASS
WILL ALSO BE EXTREMELY DRY BRINGING SUB TEEN RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SINGLE DIGIT VALUES. 20-25 KT 700 MB
WINDS FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS WILL BRING ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF BILLINGS SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT SUNDAY AS A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THIS WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT COOLING TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES
SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT, A STRONG 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET
WILL IMPACT OUR EASTERN ZONES. THIS ALONG WITH POOR RELATIVE
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES (30S %) SATURDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
FIRE CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. CONTINUED WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE SUNDAY WILL BRING
ANOTHER ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH IN COOLER AIR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOWERING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S
F. ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT FLAT RIDGING WILL RETURN
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN LIKELY MEANS
THE RETURN OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S F AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BELOW IS A SUMMARY OF SATURDAY FORECAST HIGHS, WITH DAILY AND
AUGUST RECORDS, AT EACH OF OUR MAIN CLIMATE STATIONS.
SITE 8/1 FORECAST 8/1 RECORD AUG RECORD
BILLINGS 105 102 (2008) 105 (8/2/2024)
LIVINGSTON 102 101 (2000) 105 (8/5/1961)
MILES CITY 105 104 (2008) 110 (8/7/1995)
SHERIDAN 102 103 (2008) 106 (8/7/1983)
BAKER 101 99 (2022) 108 (8/12/2018)
LT
AVIATION
SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066/105 069/094 061/076 052/080 054/089 061/096 064/094
00/G 00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 059/102 059/094 050/076 044/078 047/089 054/095 057/093
00/G 00/K 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 061/105 067/096 059/079 049/083 053/091 058/097 061/097
00/G 00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U
MLS 064/105 073/094 062/079 050/080 054/089 061/097 065/095
00/G 00/K 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 10/U
4BQ 066/101 072/094 063/081 053/080 057/089 062/096 066/095
00/G 00/U 00/U 10/U 11/U 10/U 10/U
BHK 062/101 067/095 059/081 048/077 050/087 057/095 061/095
00/G 00/K 20/N 10/U 11/U 10/U 11/U
SHR 058/102 063/098 057/081 047/082 050/089 056/096 059/094
00/G 00/K 00/U 00/U 01/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES
29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 9 PM MDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONES 117-123>128.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
PM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 129>132.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 199.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO 9
PM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 274-284.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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