346  
FXUS65 KBYZ 170914  
AFDBYZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT  
314 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2018  
   
SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU
 
 
NOT MUCH OF CONSEQUENCE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE  
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER OUR REGION AND WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL  
TEMPS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE  
WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S, AND PROBABLY SOME LOWER 70S. A  
CANADIAN CLIPPER MOVING THRU SASKATCHEWAN/ONTARIO THU NIGHT WILL  
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN MT WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST  
WINDS DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY (SEE  
BELOW), BUT OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. BT  
   
LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE
 
 
WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MOSTLY  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN OUR REGION.  
 
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A COOLER DAY FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND  
SEASONAL AVERAGE, FOLLOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE THE  
PREVIOUS NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AGAIN OVER  
THE WEEKEND, AHEAD OF RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.  
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR FRONT BY  
SUN/MON BUT OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE A BIT AT THIS POINT, WITH  
ECMWF SUPPORTING RIDGING CROSSING THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO WHERE  
ENSEMBLES SHOW MORE TEMPERATURE SPREAD, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO  
WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY.  
 
UPPER RIDGE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING  
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROF APPROACHING THE  
COAST. THIS AIDS A WEAK LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS TO LIFT NORTH  
AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE  
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS BY TUE OR TUE NIGHT. THIS IS THE ONLY  
CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HAVE CONTINUED ISOLATED  
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW  
PERSISTS AND WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDE INTO THE REGION.  
 
FURTHER OUT, MODELS APPEAR TO TRANSITION TO FASTER ZONAL FLOW AND  
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC  
FLOW SHOULD TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AAG  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT MAINLY  
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT. AAG  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
 
 
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE  
-------------------------------------------------------  
BIL 063 038/069 038/059 037/065 041/066 038/061 038/064  
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U  
LVM 061 035/067 036/060 036/066 039/066 035/062 037/062  
0/U 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U  
HDN 065 035/070 036/058 036/065 038/066 037/061 038/063  
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U  
MLS 066 037/068 038/056 034/061 038/061 034/059 037/062  
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U  
4BQ 065 037/065 038/057 033/063 038/065 034/061 037/063  
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U  
BHK 065 037/066 037/054 030/057 036/061 030/056 034/058  
0/U 00/U 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U  
SHR 062 033/064 036/057 035/064 037/065 034/061 036/062  
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U  
 

 
   
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
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