210  
FXUS65 KBYZ 260241  
AFDBYZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT  
841 PM MDT MON MAR 25 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING, WITH A  
GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUD MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO BILLINGS AND  
SHERIDAN AS OF 830 PM. TO THE EAST, SKIES ARE CLEARING, BUT AREA  
OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG THE DAKOTAS BORDER. IN FACT, LATEST  
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF WESTWARD MOVING LOW CLOUDS  
IN CARTER COUNTY, CONSISTENT WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. A  
STRATUS/FOG COMBO WILL IMPACT OUR EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH  
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT FOG  
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST, BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS  
AWAY FROM THE FOOTHILLS CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG.  
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE RAISED SKY COVER SOME  
AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND WINDS. JKL  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED
 
 
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WAS SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON  
BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION. HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH RADIATIONAL  
COOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM OVER  
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARES. WESTERN AREAS ARE A LITTLE MORE  
UNCERTAIN AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL THERE.  
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY  
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 60S AND CLOSE  
TO 70 FOR SOME AREAS AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES.  
 
DESPITE THE DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS, THE WARMER AIR AND INCREASED  
SOLAR HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE CONCERN FOR HYDROLOGIC  
ISSUES OVER THE REGION. MANY RURAL ROADS AND LOW-LYING SPOTS  
ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEING IMPACTED BY WATER FROM THE ONGOING LOWER  
ELEVATION SNOW MELT. BIGGEST IMPACT IS ALONG THE LITTLE BIGHORN  
RIVER AS I-90 REMAINS CLOSED FROM HARDIN TO THE WY LINE AS OF THIS  
WRITING. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL  
INFORMATION ON THE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.  
 
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY  
NIGHT, BUT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA ACCORDING TO  
LATEST GUIDANCE. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO  
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH  
MOVES INTO THE WEST AND A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TROUGH EJECTS  
THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE  
AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND A  
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE PLAINS AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN  
MONTANA AND COLDER AIR DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION  
LOOKS TO TURN OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY  
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DROPS INTO WYOMING ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO  
WORK INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE  
FROM THE 40S TO 50S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO  
UPPER 30S TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, COOLING INTO THE 20S AND  
LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STP  
   
LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON
 
 
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, AS  
SPRING SNOW STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE  
REGION.  
 
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO BE QUITE WET, BUT  
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS,  
BUT QPF AMOUNTS STILL BE ABOUT HALF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH FOR  
WESTERN ZONES, AND LESS TO THE EAST OF BILLINGS. MOISTURE WILL  
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.  
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.  
PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL AS SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH  
FRIDAY. A PUSH OF COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN FAIRLY EARLY THURSDAY,  
WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO SHOULD SWITCH EVERYTHING TO SNOW  
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL. THAT SAID, THE IMPACTS OF SUN ANGLE IS  
ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO GAUGE, SO MAY SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN, BUT  
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF SNOW ON ROADWAYS EITHER WAY. THE  
HEAVIEST PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO OCCUR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY  
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT TO SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE  
LOWER ELEVATION, SEVERAL INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS REGIONS, AND A  
FOOT OR MORE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER  
OFF DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.  
 
EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN,CAN BE VERY TRICKY THIS  
TIME OF YEAR, SO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE  
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IN EXPECTED TO FURTHER EXACERBATE PROBLEMS  
WITH FLOODING RIVERS AND WATER IMPACTED LOCATIONS.  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY AND  
WARMER CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 50S.  
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS ON CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.  
 
GILSTAD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS LINGERS ALONG THE MT/DAKOTAS BORDER,  
INCLUDING AT KBHK, AS OF 0230Z. A COMBINATION OF FOG AND LOW  
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EASTERN AREAS INTO EARLY TUESDAY.  
LOCAL MVFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED AND COULD IMPACT KMLS, KBHK, 4BQ AND  
97M. FURTHER WEST, CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG NEAR KBIL  
AND KSHR BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. OTHERWISE, VFR FLIGHT  
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN  
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION. SW WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30 KTS AT  
TIMES AT KLVM. JKL  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
 
 
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON  
-----------------------------------------------------------  
BIL 036/068 037/058 032/043 030/042 026/050 031/056 034/056  
00/B 12/R 77/O 74/O 21/B 11/B 22/R  
LVM 027/060 029/047 025/035 022/035 018/041 022/046 025/046  
00/N 15/R 78/S 83/S 21/B 11/B 22/O  
HDN 028/068 032/060 030/044 028/041 023/050 027/056 029/057  
00/B 11/E 67/O 74/O 21/B 11/B 22/O  
MLS 032/067 037/058 031/044 028/043 026/049 029/056 032/055  
00/B 10/B 56/O 63/O 11/B 11/B 12/O  
4BQ 029/068 036/061 032/046 030/041 025/048 028/054 031/057  
00/B 00/B 57/O 75/O 21/B 11/B 12/R  
BHK 028/064 035/056 029/042 027/041 023/046 027/054 029/053  
00/B 00/B 56/O 43/O 11/B 11/B 12/R  
SHR 029/070 033/059 030/044 028/039 022/046 025/052 029/054  
00/B 01/B 58/O 86/O 32/S 11/B 12/O  
 

 
   
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
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