114
FXUS65 KBYZ 191848
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1248 PM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH
ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS
AND COOLER CONDITIONS INTO TUESDAY.
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TUESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
90S.
- POTENTIAL FOR HOTTER CONDITIONS THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LOW SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA IS WORKING TO
FLATTEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION TODAY, WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTED EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA, TURNING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES TODAY, WARMEST OVER THE EAST. THE
COMBINATION OF SOME WEAK JET ENERGY, FALLING HEIGHTS AND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL SPREAD EAST INTO THE EARLY
EVENING, LINGERING INTO THE OVERNIGHT OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST. SPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS. WHILE CAPE (500 TO 1000
J/KG) AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR (20 TO 30 KTS) IS MODEST AT BEST. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL,
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL ARE ALL THREATS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY, AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS PUSHED
SOUTH OF THE REGION. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW SLIDING EAST THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES
(UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S) AND BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS,
STRONGEST NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS THE
PAC NW AND SOUTHERN BC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES.
ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT HEADING TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK IN A RETURN OF RIDGING TO THE REGION, AS WELL AS AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THIS WILL KEEP
MODERATE CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST, GREATEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AS WEAK
IMPULSES AND SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. CURRENTLY,
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S MOST DAYS. HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HOTTER CONDITIONS, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD 100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES. STP
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE OVER THE COMING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER STARTING AROUND
19Z AND MOVING EAST. KSHR HAS THE GREATEST RISK FOR TS BETWEEN
21Z AND 02Z. STORMS MAY REACH ANY SITE TODAY WITH CONFIDENCE LOWER
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT AND THEREFORE PROB30 GROUPS ARE IN THE TAFS
FOR KBIL/KMLS. ANY STORM TODAY COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN, HAIL,
AND WINDS OF 50 KTS. A STRAY GUST OF 60 KTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH THE STRONGEST STORM TODAY.
THE OTHER MAIN FORECAST IMPACT IS AN INCREASE IN WILDFIRE SMOKE
BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SLANTWISE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE DURATION OF THE
PERIOD. WHILE LOCALIZED MVFR VIS IS POSSIBLE AT ANY SITE, IT IS
UNLIKELY. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER
90S RESULTING IN A HIGHER DENSITY ALTITUDE. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/093 066/088 065/091 067/089 066/098 069/101 069/097
21/K 00/B 11/B 42/W 12/T 31/G 21/U
LVM 055/093 057/087 056/089 057/088 058/096 059/096 059/094
11/K 01/B 24/T 64/T 12/T 31/U 21/U
HDN 063/094 063/089 063/093 065/091 064/100 066/102 067/098
20/K 00/B 11/B 32/W 11/U 31/G 21/U
MLS 064/093 063/085 063/092 066/093 066/101 071/105 072/100
20/K 00/B 10/B 12/T 10/G 20/G 20/U
4BQ 066/093 063/086 064/091 065/089 065/097 069/101 070/098
30/K 00/B 41/B 44/T 11/U 11/G 21/U
BHK 061/092 057/083 057/089 060/091 061/098 066/104 067/100
10/K 00/B 10/B 22/T 10/U 11/G 21/U
SHR 060/093 058/089 059/089 060/085 059/095 062/098 063/095
20/K 11/B 24/T 57/T 21/U 11/U 12/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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