956
FXUS65 KBYZ 031014
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
414 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT GREATER SURFACE-BASED WILDFIRE SMOKE AND POORER AIR
QUALITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOR THE LATEST AIR
QUALITY INFORMATION, VISIT AIRNOW.GOV.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TUESDAY. A FEW RECORD LOWS
MAY BE APPROACHED TONIGHT.
- WARMER AND DRY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPS MAY
REACH TRIPLE DIGITS AGAIN BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
ONGOING COLD ADVECTION IS PRODUCING BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND
ADVECTING HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS OF SURFACE-BASED SMOKE. MILES CITY
AND BAKER HAVE SEEN VISIBILITY DROP TO 5SM, AND VISIBILITIES ARE
LOWER FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE HIGH LINE. SOME STATIONS ARE
REPORTING AIR QUALITY IN THE "UNHEALTHY FOR ALL" RANGE SO KEEP
THIS IN MIND IF YOU ARE VENTURING OUTDOORS. HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON CURRENT SMOKE TRENDS. EXPECT THICKENING SMOKE
EARLY TO GIVE WAY TO GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS
MIXED NORTH WINDS ADVECT CLEANER AIR BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT WHICH ARRIVES EARLY THIS MORNING. AS SURFACE SMOKE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE, UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
ADVECT LOFTED SMOKE FROM THE WEST.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CANADIAN TROF DROPPING INTO NORTHERN ID
AND NORTHWEST MT. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/INSTABILITY PRODUCED
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK T-STORMS IN THE EVENING OVER THE
WEST, PERHAPS EVEN A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED AS SOME STATIONS
REPORTED MEASURABLE RAIN. AS THE UPPER TROF SWINGS THRU NORTHERN
MT EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR NORTH FROM LATE MORNING THRU AFTERNOON. REGARDING FIRE WX, THE
COOLER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL LESSEN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FROM THE PAST TWO DAYS, BUT THERE REMAINS A WINDOW OF
BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND NEAR 20% RH OVER OUR FAR EAST TODAY.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE 70S TODAY. A 1020MB SURFACE HIGH
SETTLES IN TONIGHT BRINGING A SEASONABLY CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. IN FACT, A FEW DAILY RECORD LOWS FOR AUGUST
4TH MAY BE APPROACHED. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU NORTHERN WY MAY
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK T-STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST NEAR THE
WY/MT BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT. HEIGHTS START TO RISE WEDNESDAY BEHIND
THIS FINAL WAVE, AND TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND ACCORDINGLY WITH HIGHS
INTO THE 80S.
THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO FLAT RIDGING,
WARMER TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPS BACK TO THE 90S TO
NEAR 100F BY FRIDAY & SATURDAY, AND POSSIBLY SUNDAY. ENSEMBLES
SHOW INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SLIGHT COOLING BY MONDAY IF NOT
SUNDAY. WEDNESDAY TO SUNDAY WILL BE DRY, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, AS
PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER SOMEWHERE NEAR 0.50". BY LATE SUNDAY
OR MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROF APPROACHES WE SHOULD START SEEING THE
MOISTURE INCREASE AGAIN, LEADING TO A RETURN TO POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. ENSEMBLES SHOW A
FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR ABOVE NORMAL PWATS MOVING THRU THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. JKL
AVIATION
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
IN SMOKE WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS TO AVIATION TODAY. NORTHERLY
WINDS OF 15 TO 30KTS WILL BE COMMON TODAY, DIMINISHING QUICKLY
THIS EVENING. HIGH SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS HAVE BUILT INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, KNOCKING VISIBILITY DOWN AS LOW AS 4SM AT TIMES.
SURFACE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, AS NORTHERLY WINDS USHER IN
CLEANER AIR. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHERN
TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT
IMPACT FLIGHT CATEGORIES. VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 050/077 054/085 059/092 062/099 067/098 066/094
0/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 074 043/077 046/085 051/092 056/098 058/096 058/092
1/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U
HDN 074 047/079 050/086 055/093 058/100 063/098 063/096
1/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B
MLS 073 048/077 051/084 057/091 060/098 065/096 065/095
3/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/B
4BQ 077 049/075 052/083 057/089 061/097 066/096 067/095
1/N 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B
BHK 078 044/075 047/082 053/089 056/096 061/096 060/094
2/W 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/B
SHR 075 044/078 048/084 053/091 056/097 060/097 061/095
0/N 00/U 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONE 133.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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