027
FXUS65 KBYZ 062010
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
210 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FREEZE AND FROST TONIGHT.
- DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE REGION THRU FIRST HALF OF
THE WORK WEEK RESULTING IN TRANQUIL DRY CONDITIONS. CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
20S AND 30S AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, WITH A CHANCE OF A FREEZE OR
FROST AT MANY LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS AND LOWER
RIVER VALLEYS. CURRENTLY, THE CHANCE OF HITTING 32 DEGREES OR
LOWER IS <15% FOR BILLINGS, 95% FOR LIVINGSTON, 60% AT BIG TIMBER,
70% FOR ROUNDUP, 40% FOR MILES CITY AND 95% FOR SHERIDAN. DRIER
AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA AND MODEL PROGGS DO NOT INDICATE ANY
NARROW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS, BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHALLOW
PATCHY FOG ALONG RIVER BOTTOMS LATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE ABUNDANT
RECENT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS.
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY
THANKS TO THE RIDGE ALOFT. AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFT EAST AT MIDWEEK
AND FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SW, WE WILL SEE INCREASING DOWNSLOPE
FLOW AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS PUSHING TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS FOR WEDNESDAY. A VERY WEAK PUSH OF SHALLOW
CANADIAN AIR MAY BACK DOOR INTO EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY LEVELING
TEMPS OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AS WINDS SHIFT WEAKLY TO
THE EAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND ENSEMBLES SUGGEST GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
ADDITIONAL RIDGE BUILDING OVER OUR REGION FRIDAY AS A STRONG UPPER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE WEST COAST AND SLOWLY SLIDES
EAST BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD WAA WITH STRONG
DOWNSLOPE FLOW AS UPPER SW FLOW STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
(72-82 F). THE SW FLOW WILL TAP PACIFIC MOISTURE, AS WELL AS
MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE BAJA COAST.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ROCKIES. CURRENTLY, THE NBM IS GIVING
A 30-70% CHANCE FOR GETTING 0.25 INCHES OR GREATER OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW IS ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS LOOK TO DROP TO THE 50S AND 60S
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. DETAILS WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS WE
MOVE FORWARD.
BT
AVIATION
LOW TO MID CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST, INCLUDING NEAR KBHK,
OVERNIGHT UNTIL JUST AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/066 043/072 042/070 042/074 051/076 043/055 033/051
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 14/W 54/W 42/W
LVM 029/067 035/071 037/071 038/076 045/070 034/052 025/048
00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 46/W 66/W 42/W
HDN 032/067 035/073 037/071 039/076 046/077 041/057 031/051
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 14/W 54/W 42/W
MLS 033/067 040/073 040/073 043/077 049/079 044/059 033/051
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W 42/W 31/B
4BQ 035/064 042/070 040/072 044/077 053/079 046/060 033/051
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 32/W 32/W
BHK 032/065 038/073 040/073 040/074 049/076 043/062 030/052
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 11/U 32/W 21/B
SHR 028/065 032/072 037/073 039/077 046/077 039/058 027/051
00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 13/W 54/W 42/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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