871
FXUS65 KBYZ 141926
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
126 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AND AGAIN SATURDAY. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS.
- A COLD FRONT TUESDAY LOWERS TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND LOWER
80S F FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
- POTENTIAL FOR A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES ADVECTING
MOISTURE INTO MONTANA AND HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BRING CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S F. HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION BRINGING LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40-50%) FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING
THROUGH SATURDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS WHERE THERE IS A 40-80% CHANCE OF GETTING GREATER THAN
0.5 INCHES OF RAIN. UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND
DOWNSLOPING SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE 80S F.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION REDUCING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S F
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE WAVES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION WITH TUESDAY HAVING THE
BETTER CHANCES (60-70%). RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO BE LIMITED WITH A LESS THAN 50% CHANCE FOR GETTING GREATER THAN
0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ENSEMBLES
ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL THEN MOVE
OUT OF THE REGION AND BE REPLACED WITH NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE
HEIGHTS. WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE, WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO
THE 80S AND POTENTIALLY 90S F (30-50%). TORGERSON
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
MVFR CONDITIONS OR WORSE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR MOST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LOW CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO SHRA AND TSRA THIS EVENING. TEMPO GROUPS
WERE INCLUDED IN MOST TAFS DURING THE TIMEFRAME MOST LIKELY TO
SEE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE STRONG WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER A
LARGE AREA, IF A STORM GOES DIRECTLY OVER ANY TERMINAL THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE 30 KTS RANGE.
SHRA WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT GIVING WAY TO A
COMBINATION OF FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. CONDITIONS MAY CHANGE
ABRUPTLY, QUICKLY, AND REPEATEDLY ACROSS ALL SITES BETWEEN 06Z
AND 15Z RANGING BETWEEN MVFR AND LIFR IN BOTH CIGS AND VIS. WHILE
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT (LESS THAN 10 KTS) THE WIND
DIRECTION MAY CHANGE FREQUENTLY AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY
IMPROVE INTO THE DAY SATURDAY.
MOUNTAINS WILL BE PARTIALLY TO FULLY OBSCURED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/076 057/084 058/086 059/080 055/080 056/084 058/088
51/B 40/U 31/B 64/T 41/B 20/U 10/B
LVM 045/077 045/082 047/083 047/078 044/079 045/083 048/087
72/T 61/U 21/B 86/T 52/T 11/U 11/U
HDN 053/078 052/084 052/088 055/081 050/082 050/086 052/090
42/W 32/W 11/B 64/T 42/W 21/B 10/B
MLS 055/077 054/084 056/087 058/080 053/081 053/084 055/088
21/B 24/T 11/B 74/T 32/W 21/U 21/B
4BQ 057/077 056/083 058/087 060/081 055/080 055/084 057/088
31/B 24/T 21/B 64/T 33/T 21/U 11/U
BHK 051/077 049/082 052/087 054/079 049/079 049/083 052/087
30/B 14/T 31/B 66/T 43/W 31/U 11/U
SHR 051/073 049/080 050/083 052/078 048/077 048/082 050/086
57/T 42/T 11/B 45/T 43/T 11/U 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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