896
FXUS65 KBYZ 091838
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1238 PM MDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS.
- A PATTERN CHANGE WITH COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, INCLUDING MOUNTAIN SNOW.
- MODERATE CHANCE (40-60%) FOR FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS TO SEE THEIR
FIRST FALL FROST MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
UNSEASONABLY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER, DRIER, AND A LITTLE BREEZIER
THAN TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90, RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN
THE LOW TEENS PERCENT, AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OVER THE
FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH NEAR THE
DAKOTA BORDER. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA, GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WILL BE COMMON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THURSDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEST AND NORTH OF BILLINGS AND OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS. TAKE CARE NOT TO CAUSE A
SPARK!
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND BEGINNING A TREND
TOWARDS COOLER WEATHER. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER
70S FRIDAY, FALLING TO UPPER 50S OVER THE NORTHWEST TO LOW 70S
OVER THE SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (20-60% CHANCE,
HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS) SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE (50-80%) FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY INTO LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY.
CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCE FOR 0.5" OF PRECIPITATION (40-70%) WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS FROM BILLINGS WEST AND NORTH. WITH THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES, SNOW LEVELS FALL TO 7,500 FT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ABOVE 9,000 FT (30%
CHANCE) WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THOSE
WITH RECREATION PLANS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD PREPARE FOR
WINTRY CONDITIONS!
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S AND
40S FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS
CURRENTLY HAVE A 40 TO 60% CHANCE OF A FROST (36 F) MONDAY
MORNING, WHILE THE PLAINS HAVE A 15 TO 40% CHANCE. OVER THE
FOOTHILLS, THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) FOR A FREEZE (32 F)
MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION, BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND ALLOWING HIGHS TO
APPROACH SEASONABLE (70S) TUESDAY. ARCHER
AVIATION
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 15-30
KTS, STRONGEST ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON, TURNING NORTHWESTERLY INTO THE EVENING AND DIMINISHING
AFTER SUNSET. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY
WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS, STRONGEST OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND
NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/087 053/070 047/064 045/063 042/067 042/069 046/067
00/U 01/B 21/E 55/T 41/B 00/B 01/B
LVM 047/086 048/073 041/064 038/062 034/066 036/070 039/070
00/N 12/T 32/T 57/T 51/B 00/U 12/W
HDN 046/090 048/073 043/068 043/067 039/068 038/073 042/071
00/U 01/U 31/B 55/T 41/B 00/U 00/B
MLS 050/088 055/071 045/065 044/064 043/063 039/072 045/071
00/U 11/B 11/E 66/T 71/B 00/U 11/B
4BQ 051/090 054/076 046/070 048/071 044/066 040/075 047/075
00/U 00/U 31/B 64/T 61/B 00/U 11/B
BHK 046/089 050/075 040/067 040/064 040/063 035/073 041/074
00/N 00/U 11/E 67/T 82/W 10/U 21/B
SHR 045/088 051/075 042/071 044/071 038/067 037/073 041/072
00/U 01/U 22/W 44/T 31/U 00/U 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONES 123-124-127-133.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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