851
FXUS65 KBYZ 161102
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
502 AM MDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE FOOTHILLS
WEST OF BILLINGS AT A 60-70% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OF AT LEAST 60
MPH.
- UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MT. CURRENTLY THERE'S A 30-60% CHANCE FOR GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH FOR TUESDAY.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. 6-12 INCHES IS
EXPECTED IN THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
CURRENT MID LEVELS ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US. PACIFIC MOISTURE
WILL STREAM IN OVER THE RIDGE WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGING
SOME SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS AND LOW CHANCES (20-40%) FOR A LIGHT
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS. THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS
AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO GET ABOUT 6-12 INCHES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BIGHORNS WILL ONLY GET A FEW INCHES AS THIS
PATTERN WILL MAINLY FAVOR WEST FACING SLOPES FOR AREA MOUNTAINS.
THERE IS ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION (MAINLY FOR
CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES) LATE MONDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY KEEP ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ACCUMULATION, SO
THERE IS LITTLE CONCERN IN TERMS OF IMPACTS. TONIGHT (MONDAY
NIGHT) INTO TUESDAY, 700 MB WINDS AND A PRESSURE GRADIENT
FAVORABLE FOR GAP WINDS WILL FORM ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF
BILLINGS. 700 MB WINDS WILL PEAK AT 65-75 KTS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WITH A 15-18 MB PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM IDA TO LWT
(FAVORABLE FOR GAP WINDS AT LIVINGSTON). EVEN WITH SNOWPACK FOR
AREAS NORTH OF BIG TIMBER UP THROUGH JUDITH GAP, THE STRENGTH OF
THESE 700 WINDS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DUCT UNDER THE INVERSION. WITH
THIS THERE IS ABOUT A 60-80% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 60 MPH, WITH
ABOUT A 40% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 70 MPH LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH
THE EVENING TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, HIGH WIND WARNINGS WILL BEGIN
THIS EVENING AND GO THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS SLIGHTLY
LESS CONFIDENCE AREAS TO THE EAST (GOLDEN VALLEY AND NORTHERN
STILLWATER COUNTIES) GIVEN SNOWPACK AND RESULTING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS IF THESE AREAS WILL BE FAVORABLE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST.
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO AT LEAST 60 MPH FOR
THESE LOCATIONS. GIVEN, THE FOLLOWING DAYS ARE WARMER AND DRYER
AND 700 MB WINDS STAY MODEST AT 45-55 KTS, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST WITH ABOUT A 40% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY FOR AREAS ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. ENSEMBLES LOOK
TO FLATTEN MID LEVEL HEIGHTS AND BRING SOME ENERGY OVERHEAD BY THE
END OF THE WEEK WHICH WOULD RELIEVE WARMER CONDITIONS AND
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY TRICKY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
GIVEN SNOWPACK OR LACK THEREOF ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IN
HIGH IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 50S, 50S AND 60S TUESDAY, 60S TO 70S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH 50S FOR SUNDAY. TS
AVIATION
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL FLOW OVER THE AREA AS
THE FRONT SIDE OF A STRONG RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA. THIS WARM
ADVECTION PATTERN WILL BRING MAINLY VFR CEILINGS TO THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
MORNING TO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE LOWER ELEVATION
LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE LIGHT NATURE OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND WEAK
FORCING UTILIZED VCSH LIBERALLY WITH THIS TAF PACKAGE. WESTERN
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE PERIODS OF OBSCURATION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS
THE PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH PRODUCING PERIODS OF MODERATE
SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AROUND KLVM, WITH GUSTS OF
40KTS OR MORE EXPECTED BY LATE MONDAY EVENING. CURRENT SNOWPACK
SHOULD SHIELD MOST OTHER AREAS FROM GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT, THOUGH LLWS IS EXPECTED, AS ~2KFT AGL WINDS INCREASE TO 35
TO 50KTS OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 045 038/063 042/067 042/072 046/076 045/066 037/057
1/E 20/N 00/B 00/B 00/B 12/W 21/B
LVM 052 044/062 048/069 047/072 051/074 048/067 036/054
3/W 51/N 10/N 00/N 00/N 12/W 11/B
HDN 045 034/063 038/070 038/075 042/078 042/069 035/057
1/E 30/N 01/B 00/B 01/B 12/W 21/B
MLS 036 029/054 038/064 040/071 045/073 042/062 033/053
1/B 30/N 00/B 00/U 00/B 12/W 11/B
4BQ 039 032/060 039/069 042/073 045/076 043/070 035/054
1/B 30/N 00/B 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/B
BHK 032 023/055 036/064 039/070 043/070 039/061 029/050
0/B 30/N 00/N 00/U 00/B 12/W 11/B
SHR 045 033/066 038/072 039/075 043/078 042/071 032/055
2/W 11/N 00/B 00/U 00/U 12/W 21/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 34-42.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
MDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.
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