441
FXUS65 KBYZ 171902
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
102 PM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH MONDAY
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (1 TO 3 INCHES ON GRASSY SURFACES) FOR
THE RED LODGE AND BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS ABOVE 5000 FEET TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL EXPECTED.
- MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. RECREATION COULD BE
IMPACTED BY WINTER CONDITIONS.
- WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE LIKELY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT, COLDEST
MONDAY NIGHT. MAKE SURE TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
- WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DISORGANIZED UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW
KEEPING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. HOPES THAT
THIS SYSTEM WOULD ORGANIZE A BIT BETTER AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION HAVE FADED HOWEVER. THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES SPLITTING IN TWO AND THE MORE IMPACTFUL PORTION IS NOW
EXPECTED TO STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE AREA TO LIMIT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, OUTSIDE OF FAVORED UPSLOPE NORTHERLY SLOPES AND AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST MT/WY BORDER.
EVEN UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED
DOWNWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS PIECE HAS
WEAKENED WITH THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM STAYING FURTHER SOUTH. THAT
SAID THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH SNOW IN THE BEARTOOTH AND RED
LODGE FOOTHILLS ABOVE 5000 FEET TO SUPPORT THE GOING WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY THERE, BUT THERE IS GOING TO BE A SHARP
ACCUMULATING SNOW LINE NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF NYE AND RED LODGE
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AT TIMES THROUGH MONDAY
WITH THE STORM SYSTEM SUCH AS IT IS SITUATED OVER THE REGION. WITH
THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, GUSTS IN
THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE WILL BE WIDESPREAD, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
IN THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS.
STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY LEAVING MODEST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. A
DISTURBANCE ON WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING A BIT MORE ORGANIZED IN SOME
OF THE MODELS AND MAY BRING A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY. CURRENT
PROBABILITIES FOR A QUARTER INCH OR MORE WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE OVER
40% FOR AREA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, AND OVER 25% FOR LOWER
ELEVATIONS WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR HIGH
ELEVATION SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM AS PROBABILITIES FOR 6+ INCHES
OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ARE AROUND 20-25% FOR THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
OTHERWISE, PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST ON SATURDAY
WHICH WILL HELP BOOST FORECAST HIGHS INTO THE 80S WITH PLENTY OF
SUN. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
NORTHERLY WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WILL
CONTINUE TODAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OBSCURE
THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES INTO MONDAY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE FOOTHILLS, INCLUDING KLVM AND KSHR,
WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OUT OVER THE PLAINS, INCLUDING KBIL
AND KMLS. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/051 030/066 041/070 043/069 045/073 045/081 051/086
22/W 21/U 01/B 52/W 13/T 20/B 11/U
LVM 026/046 025/062 035/064 036/065 040/069 040/078 045/081
34/W 21/U 03/T 62/W 23/T 11/B 11/N
HDN 034/051 027/067 037/072 041/069 042/073 042/081 048/085
22/W 10/U 01/B 52/W 12/T 21/U 11/U
MLS 035/048 031/064 039/072 043/069 043/072 044/079 049/084
23/W 20/U 00/B 21/B 12/T 21/U 11/U
4BQ 035/046 029/061 037/071 042/067 042/071 043/078 049/084
34/W 20/U 01/B 33/W 21/B 21/U 11/U
BHK 032/045 029/059 034/071 040/067 041/070 042/077 048/083
34/W 41/B 00/B 22/W 13/T 21/B 11/B
SHR 030/044 025/061 031/066 036/064 036/069 037/077 042/083
78/W 21/U 02/T 56/T 13/T 11/U 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON MDT MONDAY FOR ZONES 56-66-171.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON MDT MONDAY FOR ZONE 198.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page