447
FXUS65 KBYZ 291208
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
608 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST MT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
- CONTINUED HOT WITH A DAILY CHANCE (10-30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
- VERY HOT & DRY SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT;
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT; A STRONGER FRONT
ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT. COOLER TEMPS COMING NEXT MONDAY & TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (15% CHANCE) ARE LIFTING NORTH
AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK ENERGY LIFT INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND A WEAK FRONT CREATES AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST. HAVE UPDATED POPS THROUGH THIS
MORNING AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES TO LATEST TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE
GOING FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AND COVERS OUR SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WELL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STP
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SW FLOW ALOFT, COMBINED
WITH ELEVATED MONSOON MOISTURE, WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A DAILY
RISK (10-30% CHANCE) OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IN FAR SOUTHEAST MT TODAY,
MAINLY EAST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY BETWEEN 1-6PM. STRONG WIND GUSTS IS
THE MAIN RISK BUT PWATS ARE QUITE HIGH AND THUS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY/SHEAR TO
SUPPORT MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HIGHER BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA. A SIMILAR STORY IS EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION THURSDAY &
FRIDAY, AND GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXIST
IN OUR EAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN HAZY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WE
ADVECT LOFTED SMOKE FROM THE NUMEROUS WILDFIRES IN OR/WA.
SATURDAY IS HOTTER & DRIER AS MONSOON MOISTURE IS FINALLY SCOURED
OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. WITH 700MB TEMPS OF +18C TO +20C
WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER DAY OF EXTREME HEAT WITH HIGHS WELL OVER
100F. DAILY RECORDS FOR AUG 1ST ARE DEFINITELY BREAKABLE, AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE NOTORIOUSLY HOT LOCATIONS REACH 110F
(SMOKE PERMITTING) FOR THE 2ND TIME THIS SUMMER. IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED SATURDAY PLEASE PROTECT YOURSELF FROM
THE HEAT. REGARDING FIRE WEATHER, MIXED WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT
TIMES, BUT MID LEVEL FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 10-20KTS DOES NOT
SUPPORT STRONG WINDS. FURTHERMORE, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL TOLD, SATURDAY WILL SEE ELEVATED
FIRE WX CONCERNS BUT FRONTAL TIMING SEEMS LATE ENOUGH TO PREVENT
IT FROM BEING A MORE PROBLEMATIC DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS.
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARPER TROF
SKIRTING ACROSS THE MT/CANADA BORDER. EACH OF THESE FRONTS LOOK
DRY FOR US, BUT WE WILL SEE MUCH COOLER TEMPS BY MONDAY & TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S & 80S. THE CHANCES OF PRECIP ARE LOW
ON THESE DAYS.
FINALLY, WITH REGARD TO SMOKE, THE FRONTAL PASSAGES SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY NIGHT COULD BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED SURFACE SMOKE PER
THE SUBSIDENCE AND DEVELOPING UPSLOPE WINDS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED.
JKL
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A WEAK THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING. A DISTURBANCE LIFTING THROUGH
THE REGION WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING NEAR AND EAST OF A KMLS TO KSHR LINE. WIND
GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 KTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL, THOUGH HAIL IS STILL A RISK TO A LESSER EXTENT.
ELSEWHERE, (INCLUDING KBIL) THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
TO 40 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY.
SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SURFACE REDUCTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 095 066/096 065/099 067/105 070/093 062/083 058/087
2/T 31/U 20/U 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 093 058/095 058/097 061/103 061/092 052/083 050/086
3/T 31/K 20/U 00/G 00/N 10/U 00/U
HDN 097 065/096 062/101 064/107 069/096 061/086 056/090
2/W 41/K 21/G 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 101 069/094 065/100 067/107 075/095 065/085 057/088
2/W 34/T 20/U 00/G 00/U 00/U 01/U
4BQ 099 068/091 064/096 066/104 074/096 066/086 060/087
4/T 53/T 22/T 10/G 00/U 10/U 11/U
BHK 099 064/090 060/096 063/102 070/097 063/086 054/086
4/T 43/T 21/U 00/G 00/U 20/U 11/U
SHR 097 061/093 058/097 060/106 065/096 059/086 053/089
2/T 53/T 22/T 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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