431
FXUS65 KBYZ 290122
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
722 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
- SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS, WITH 1-3" AS LOW
AS 9000 FEET, 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 9 INCHES ABOVE
10000 FEET. THIS WILL IMPACT OUTDOOR RECREATION AND TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ON THE BEARTOOTH HIGHWAY.
- WINDY FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH GUSTS TO 30-55 MPH,
GREATEST IN THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS.
UPDATE
DYNAMIC AND SLOW-MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT MUCH
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH IMPRESSIVE AREA OF PRECIP OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MT AT THIS TIME. WE ARE IN THE DRY SLOT NOW
WITH JUST LIGHT SHOWERS IN OUR FAR WEST, BUT THIS WILL CHANGE OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT. ENERGY LIFTING OUT OF UT/CO ALONG WITH
VERY ELEVATED INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF SHERIDAN-MILES CITY,
BEGINNING BY SUNSET. WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY THIS
EVENING, BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT THE TROWAL IS EXPECTED TO BRING RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FROM THE W-NW. EXPECT PRECIP TO REACH
BILLINGS AFTER 12Z. SNOW LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY ANALYZED TO BE NEAR
8KFT ALONG THE MT/ID BORDER AND THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO OUR CWA
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THUS, WHEN PRECIP SPREADS OVER THE WEST
LATER TONIGHT IT WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW OVER THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE CRAZY AND BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS. EXPECT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 9KFT. WHAT TIME OF YEAR
IS IT? OTHERWISE GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS. THERE IS A MODEST SIGNAL FOR PRE-FRONTAL MOUNTAIN WAVE
WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE PRYORS/BIGHORNS TOMORROW
MORNING, AND COULD SEE BRIEF GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH AT PLACES LIKE
FORT SMITH, DAYTON AND STORY. SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH THIS VERY
FALL-LIKE WEATHER SYSTEM.
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE BUT HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS AND POPS/WX A
BIT. ALSO REMOVED MENTION OF TS IN THE WEST TOMORROW AS PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL WILL BE GENERALLY STABLE, WITH HIGH
TEMPS ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
JKL
DISCUSSION
A STRONG UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NORTHERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS EXIST EAST OF BILLINGS, WITH CLEARER
SKIES. MEANWHILE, AROUND AND WEST OF BILLINGS LOW TO MID CLOUDS
ALONG WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
ARE SPREADING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MT. THIS WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS WEST OF
BILLINGS, ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH AND CRAZY
MOUNTAINS, WHERE SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS
INTO SOUTHERN MT AND EASTERN ID THROUGH MONDAY, ADDITIONAL PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE
BEST CHANCE AT LEAST 0.5" EXISTS IN THE MENTIONED MOUNTAINS WHERE
TOTAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" ARE FORECAST
THROUGH MONDAY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AREAS
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 70S. IN
THE MOUNTAINS, TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 30SF THIS
AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 20S
AND LOW 30S AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP
TOWARDS 7,500 FEET TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. THE
MAJORITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL OCCUR ABOVE 9000 FEET. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL AROUND 9KFT, 3 TO 6
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 9 INCHES ABOVE 10KFT.
RECREATION IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE IMPACTED BY WINTRY CONDITIONS
TO START THE WEEK. TRAVEL ALONG THE BEARTOOTH HIGHWAY, MAINLY
ABOVE VISTA POINT WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. BECAUSE OF THIS, A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.
THE UPPER LOWS PLACEMENT IS BRINGING GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 45 MPH RANGE TODAY.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY GUSTIER, WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. EACH
DAY THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF
BILLINGS AND IN EACH OF THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH, CRAZY, AND BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS. THE MOST RECENT RUNS FROM THE HRRR HAVE BEEN SHOWING A
PERIOD OF HIGHER WIND GUSTS IN THE BIGHORNS AROUND SUNRISE
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH PROJECTED GUSTS INTO THE 60S MPH. THE
LATEST FORECAST HAS GUSTS IN THE LOW 50S HOWEVER, WITH ENSEMBLES
AND OTHER MODELS NOT DEPICTING QUITE AS STRONG WINDS.
A WEAK WAVE MONDAY MORNING MAY BRING A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER TO
THE FAR SOUTHEAST, THOUGH STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. THE
UPPER LOW LOOKS TO FINALLY GET MOVING AND DEPARTS THE STATE INTO
TUESDAY, LEAVING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING IN
THE 20 TO 40 MPH RANGE (GREATEST IN THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS
AND ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER).
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES IS
DEPICTED BY THE LATEST ENSEMBLE RUNS. THESE LOOK TO BRING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM
STRENGTH IS NOT CLEAR AT THIS TIME, THOUGH MACHINE LEARNING
NETWORKS SUGGEST LITTLE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AS WELL.
CLUSTER AND ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT THAT
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OVER THE
WEEKEND, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S AND POTENTIALLY
90S GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.
MATOS
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT, INCREASING
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED MFVR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE
STRONGEST SHOWERS. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. WEST WINDS WILL
BRIEFLY DECREASE FOR MANY LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING
TO WIDESPREAD 20 TO 40 KT GUSTS BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A
MODERATE CHANCE FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING KRED AND
KSHR. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/066 054/078 053/079 054/083 055/084 055/081 056/087
06/W 21/B 23/T 21/B 23/T 42/T 10/U
LVM 044/056 043/072 045/074 045/077 047/078 046/078 048/084
79/W 53/T 25/T 44/T 35/T 42/T 10/U
HDN 046/071 052/079 051/081 052/086 054/086 054/083 054/089
04/W 21/U 33/T 11/B 13/T 42/T 10/U
MLS 050/072 051/078 053/081 055/086 057/088 057/082 055/087
14/W 21/N 15/T 11/B 24/T 42/T 11/U
4BQ 052/073 052/079 054/081 055/086 058/089 057/081 056/088
32/T 10/U 34/T 12/T 12/T 42/T 21/U
BHK 049/074 048/077 050/079 052/085 054/087 054/081 052/084
35/T 20/N 15/T 32/T 23/T 53/T 11/U
SHR 046/071 045/077 048/078 049/083 051/084 051/080 050/086
22/W 11/U 34/T 12/T 13/T 33/T 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
ZONE 67.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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