808
FXUS65 KBYZ 091026
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
326 AM MST FRI JAN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOWFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE
DAKOTAS BORDER, AROUND HALF AN INCH.
- PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND GAP
LOCATIONS, CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY,
STAY TUNED.
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
STRONG NW FLOW IS SETTING UP OVER THE REGION TODAY, WITH A
DEVELOPING UPPER LOW PLUNGING INTO THE MIDWEST AND A STRONG RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK
DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW THOUGH,
BRINGING LIGHT PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS TO ALL MOUNTAINS. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST, WITH UP TO 2 INCHES.
THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND GAPS WEST OF BILLINGS. DESPITE A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FOR THE LIVINGSTON AND NYE GAP
WINDS, 700MB WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH TODAY, BEFORE
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO BECOME MORE WNW. THE LACK OF MORE W-SW FLOW
LOOKS TO DIMINISH THE THREAT FOR EVEN HIGHER WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 60 MPH, WITH THE PROBABILITY OF THAT AROUND 50-60%, GREATEST
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE US-191 CORRIDOR AS WELL TODAY, WITH A FAVORABLE
GRADIENT DEVELOPING THERE AS WELL. GUSTS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE
EXPECTED, WITH A 50% CHANCE FOR A FEW GUSTS OF 50 MPH AROUND BIG
TIMBER AND HARLOWTON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
PLAINS TODAY AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
PASSING THROUGH. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20S
TO 30S MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
LIVINGSTON AND NYE AREAS REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11AM MST
SATURDAY, WITH PERIODS OF STRONG CROSSWINDS EXPECTED.
AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST ON SATURDAY, HIRES MODELS ARE
INDICATING AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR
EAST, WITH ANOTHER WAVE MOVING THROUGH. THE LATEST FORECAST HAS
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH AROUND 0.5
INCHES FOR CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES. ALTHOUGH IMPACTS LOOK TO
BE MINOR, MAKE SURE TO TAKE CARE IF TRAVELING SATURDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S AND 40S TODAY, BEFORE
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL
BE IN THE 30S TO 50F (COOLEST IN THE EAST), AND 40S AND 50S ON
SUNDAY.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE DEPICTING THE RIDGE FLATTENING OVER THE
AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE QUITE WARM AGAIN, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60F. ADDITIONALLY, LOW TO MID LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE, WITH 30-40+ KNOTS AT 850MB AND 50-60 KNOTS AT
700MB. THIS WILL BE WORTH MONITORING, AS THE LATEST FORECAST AND
GUIDANCE HAS WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY. CURRENTLY THERE IS
MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF WINDS APPROACHING 60 MPH ALONG THE US-191
CORRIDOR, AS WELL AS CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS FOR THE GAP LOCATIONS.
RIDGING LOOKS TO REBUILD INTO MID-WEEK, WITH WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS PERSISTING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE
40S AND 50S, APPROACHING 60F ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL
PERIODS OF WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL. THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE ON A NOTABLE PATTERN CHANGE, WITH A FEW MODELS
DEPICTING A TROUGH BREAKING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THIS REMAINS TO
BE SEEN, ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW LOVERS. MATOS
AVIATION
BREEZY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, STRONGEST OVER
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (INCLUDING KLVM, K6S0, K3HT). WHILE SURFACE
WINDS MAY DECREASE OVER THE PLAINS TONIGHT, BREEZY WINDS LOOK TO
CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. AROUND KBIL, IF WINDS DO
DECREASE INTO TONIGHT, MINOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY OCCUR.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AROUND KMLS AND KBHK
MID-DAY TODAY (15 PERCENT CHANCE), BEFORE A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA (KBHK AND K97M)
DEVELOPS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY (30 PERCENT CHANCE). ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042 032/050 034/053 038/059 044/058 041/060 038/052
0/N 00/N 00/N 00/N 11/E 00/B 02/W
LVM 035 027/045 030/050 034/052 038/051 036/056 034/049
1/N 10/N 00/B 00/N 12/W 00/B 02/W
HDN 041 030/050 031/055 032/059 042/057 038/059 035/051
0/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 12/W 10/B 13/W
MLS 035 025/043 027/051 033/056 041/052 031/051 033/045
0/B 10/B 00/B 00/B 11/B 00/B 12/W
4BQ 035 028/043 031/053 033/056 042/052 034/053 034/047
0/B 11/B 00/U 00/B 11/E 10/B 12/W
BHK 032 017/034 021/047 028/052 034/047 028/047 028/042
2/B 21/E 00/B 00/B 11/N 10/B 12/W
SHR 036 021/046 026/055 028/057 034/052 032/055 029/047
0/N 10/N 00/B 00/B 13/W 10/B 12/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST SATURDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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