407
FXUS65 KBYZ 232256
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
456 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST
OF BILLINGS AND IN FAR EASTERN MONTANA.
- WARM AND DRY END OF THE WORK WEEK; 80S RETURN.
- UNSETTLED AND COOLER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS MONTANA TODAY, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A
FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO EXIST MAINLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS INTO THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE
DECREASING CLOUD COVER WITH DRIER CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S TODAY.
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TAKE HOLD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80SF. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST OF
THE TWO DAYS. A LARGE SURFACE HIGH WILL INFLUENCE WINDS OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA TO END THE WEEK, WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW. AS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA,
FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY, AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR THE HIGH
COUNTRY, WITH GUSTS IN THE RANGE OF 30 TO 50 MPH. ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS GUSTS OF 20 TO 40 MPH ARE FORECAST,
WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE 15 TO 30 MPH GUSTS.
THE COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW THAT IS
SET TO MOVE THROUGH ALBERTA THIS WEEKEND. ENSEMBLES DO DEPICT A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AHEAD OF THE PARENT TROUGH,
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE
THOUGH.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMALS (UPPER 60S TO LOW 70SF) BEGINNING SATURDAY AND LASTING
INTO NEXT WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH WITH ANOTHER POTENTIAL
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SHOW BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. MATOS
AVIATION
00Z TAF/AVIATION DISCUSSION...ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION WILL BE
DISTRIBUTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 02-03Z THIS EVENING,
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30KTS THE MAIN THREAT. AFTER THAT TIME SKIES
CLEAR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THE
THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG WILL BE MAINLY OVER SE MONTANA TONIGHT IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS, INCLUDING KMLS/K4BQ/KBHK. ANY FOG WOULD DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z AND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE 15-16Z TIME FRAME THURSDAY
MORNING. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 053/080 052/081 054/068 048/065 049/061 045/063
2/W 00/U 00/B 00/B 01/B 54/W 22/W
LVM 074 045/080 047/083 046/070 042/067 042/062 038/064
2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 54/W 31/U
HDN 075 048/083 051/083 050/069 044/069 047/062 042/064
2/W 00/U 00/B 00/U 01/B 44/W 21/B
MLS 075 050/081 056/079 054/068 047/070 051/062 045/062
2/T 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 44/W 21/B
4BQ 075 050/079 055/077 054/069 048/073 052/063 045/062
2/W 00/U 00/B 00/U 11/B 55/W 21/B
BHK 075 047/081 050/075 051/071 044/070 048/063 041/061
2/T 10/U 01/N 00/U 01/B 75/T 32/W
SHR 074 045/078 048/079 050/070 043/070 046/060 040/060
2/W 20/U 00/B 00/U 01/B 36/W 42/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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