648
FXUS65 KBYZ 071157
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
557 AM MDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
- MAINLY DRY MONDAY; THEN A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REST OF THE WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
MOST OF THE REGION IS DRY EARLY THIS MORNING BUT THERE ARE A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE FAR WEST. SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTEDLY, AREAS OF LOW CLOUD
WITH CEILINGS OF 1500-2500' AGL HAVE DEVELOPED FROM ROSEBUD
COUNTY WESTWARD, AND NOT JUST IN UPSLOPE LOCATIONS, THOUGH WINDS
ARE OUT OF THE N-NE. THE STRATUS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. EXPECT
IT TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT IF IT LINGERS, IT WILL
AFFECT AFTERNOON TEMPS AND CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AT LEAST IN
WEST/CENTRAL PARTS. AS IT IS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY
HEALTHY MID LEVEL INVERSION INTO THE AFTERNOON, A FEATURE THAT
SHOULD CAP CONVECTION UNTIL THE STRONGER FORCING & COLD FRONT
ARRIVE. THE DAY1 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE EAST HALF OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, AND ESPECIALLY OUR SOUTHEAST, FOR A RISK OF
SEVERE T-STORMS TODAY. TIMING LOOKS TO BE FROM 1-7PM. HIGH RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS W/
TODAY'S CONVECTION. RISKS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS (HAIL
THREAT IS MUCH GREATER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY AS FREEZING LEVELS
ARE DROPPING), AND CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN FAR
SOUTHEAST MT. ALSO, AS EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP AT AND WEST
OF BILLINGS, IT IS POSSIBLE THERE IS A SHORT WINDOW OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL FURTHER WEST THAN THE CURRENT DAY1 OUTLOOK SUGGESTS.
MESOANALYSIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. STAY AWARE IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS TODAY!
JKL
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
IN THE WAKE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LAST EVENING AND EARLY THIS
MORNING, AN INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS DROPPED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AREA, BRINGING COOLER CONDITIONS AND NORTHERLY WINDS. A STRONGER
TROUGH PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE REGION TODAY, SENDING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING, SPREADING EAST TODAY INTO THE EVENING.
AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHEAST MT
IS EXPECTED WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING FROM THE COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED JET MAX MOVING OVERHEAD. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (30-50
KTS) AND MUCAPE VALUES UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG SHOULD LEAD TO A
LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AND DOWN INTO SHERIDAN COUNTY, WY. EASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE
ADVECTING IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO AID IN CONVECTION. HOW
FAR WEST THIS THREAT DEVELOPS DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH THE COOLER AIR
MASS GETS INTO OUR AREA LIMITING INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 50S AND 60S OVER THE WEST, TO THE 70S
OVER CENTRAL AREAS AND 80S OUT EAST. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT
RISK TO ENHANCED FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING FOR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO THE
FORECAST IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS TODAY AND KEEP AN EYE TO THE
SKY.
BY MONDAY, WEAK RIDGING MOVING INTO THE REGION BRINGS DRIER
CONDITIONS. COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED BEGINNING
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DROPPING
THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY, INCLUDING THE BEARTOOTH HWY. THE
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN LOW, WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE EAST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S
TUESDAY ONWARD. STP
AVIATION
AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF KMLS-K00F EARLY THIS
MORNING. THROUGH DAYTIME MIXING THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY 14-16Z. SHOWERS W/ A FEW WEAK T-STORMS IN THE FAR WEST THIS
MORNING MAY PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR NEAR KHWQ & KLVM, WHILE MOUNTAINS
ARE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME STORMS (MAINLY FROM BILLINGS EASTWARD) MAY BE SEVERE
AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS, ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN (MVFR/IFR EXPECTED IN HEAVIER SHOWERS). PEAK TIMING FOR TS
TODAY IS FROM 19Z TO 02Z. AN AFTERNOON COLD FRONT WILL BRING
BREEZY NW-N WINDS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING, WITH
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-35KTS. VFR WILL PREVAIL AND WINDS WILL
DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
REGION.
JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 044/077 055/079 050/068 047/072 047/076 048/071
5/T 10/B 01/B 75/T 31/N 21/U 23/T
LVM 066 035/074 048/069 039/059 036/066 038/072 040/067
5/T 01/B 08/T +8/T 31/N 11/U 23/T
HDN 075 041/079 052/081 048/069 045/071 045/075 046/070
7/T 20/B 01/B 85/T 52/T 11/U 23/T
MLS 080 045/076 056/082 051/069 048/070 047/073 048/068
6/T 30/B 11/B 55/T 43/T 11/B 12/W
4BQ 083 046/077 058/084 050/067 046/068 046/073 048/070
7/T 52/W 11/B 87/T 44/T 11/U 23/T
BHK 084 044/075 054/084 048/067 045/066 045/070 045/064
4/T 60/B 21/B 46/T 55/T 11/U 22/W
SHR 078 039/080 050/081 044/064 040/068 040/073 042/070
7/T 40/B 03/T 78/T 53/T 12/T 24/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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