130
FXUS65 KBYZ 032305
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
505 PM MDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THRU FRIDAY.
- TURNING COOLER AND POTENTIALLY WETTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NW
COAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS PLACED A
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION. THE PATTERN PRESENTS FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. RECENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30-40 MPH RANGE
IN AND NEAR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO MIX
OUT TO THE 20-30 MPH RANGE FROM AROUND YELLOWSTONE COUNTY
WESTWARD LATE TODAY. IN THE MEANTIME, HUMIDITY LEVELS HAVE
DROPPED TO AROUND 20% OR LESS IN THESE AREAS. A RED FLAG WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 9:00 PM.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST FOR FRIDAY
AS WELL. DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND DRIER AIR WILL DROP AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SINGLE DIGIT READINGS OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS. TEMPS SOAR INTO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. WINDS
WILL BE BORDERLINE OF CRITERIA FOR MANY LOCATIONS, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST OVER THE BIG HORNS REGION INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA (20-35 MPH GUSTS). THUS, WE HAVE UPGRADED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH 9:00
PM FRIDAY.
ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN ROCKIES LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO A
GRADUAL COOLING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AS ENERGY ROUNDS THE BOTTOM OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND TRACKS ACROSS OUR AREA WITH A STRONG DIFFLUENT
FLOW DEVELOPING. LOOK FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS JUMP TO OVER AN INCH FOR THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA. TEMPS BY MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 70S
WEST TO MID 80S EAST.
MODELS SUGGEST THE PATTERN WILL TURN SOMEWHAT BENIGN INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL (70S-LOW 80S) AND A SLIGHT CHANCE (10-20%) OF DAILY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. BT
AVIATION
BREEZY SW-W WINDS WEST OF KBIL (GUSTING 25-35 KNOTS) WILL DIMINISH
BY 02Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
BUT THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FROM 06-12Z IN FAR
SOUTHEAST MT, AFFECTING KMLS-KBHK-K97M W/ SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
30-40 KNOTS AT 2KFT AGL. EXPECT MIXED S-SW WINDS W/ GUSTS OF 15-25
KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/092 056/086 060/083 060/081 053/077 051/077 053/079
00/U 00/U 01/B 55/T 30/U 00/B 22/W
LVM 048/084 048/083 048/081 050/074 043/073 043/076 046/077
00/N 10/U 01/B 75/T 31/N 02/W 22/W
HDN 051/095 052/088 056/086 058/084 048/080 046/080 049/081
00/U 00/U 01/B 44/T 31/U 00/B 22/W
MLS 061/096 059/090 062/089 064/084 053/078 050/077 051/079
00/U 00/U 12/T 64/T 51/N 00/U 12/W
4BQ 061/097 061/091 063/090 067/087 055/081 053/081 055/082
00/U 00/U 01/B 52/W 21/U 00/U 22/W
BHK 056/098 061/095 060/092 061/087 053/080 047/079 047/080
00/N 00/U 13/T 63/W 31/N 10/U 22/W
SHR 053/094 055/089 055/086 057/084 046/079 046/078 048/079
00/U 00/U 01/U 32/W 20/U 00/U 12/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 123>130.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 129-131>133.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONE 284.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 274-284.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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