930
FXUS65 KBYZ 020718
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
118 AM MDT WED SEP 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WEST OF BILLINGS AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS EAST OF BILLINGS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY; CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE NEAR AND WEST OF BILLINGS THURSDAY.
- CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LATER THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. STAY TUNED AS CHANGES ARE LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING AN OCCASIONAL LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
(10-30% CHANCE) THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR MUCH OF MONTANA TODAY. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 60+
MPH.
BETWEEN A LOW NORTHWEST OF THE REGION AND A HIGH SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY FROM UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
OVER THE WEST TO NEAR 90 OVER THE EAST TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY.
UNDER THE CURRENT PATTERN, WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY BE BREEZY,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS AND 35 TO 50 MPH GUSTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AT TIMES TODAY AND
THURSDAY. WITH THE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
ARE ELEVATED. GIVEN THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS, WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OF
THE CWA ARE OF THE MOST CONCERN THURSDAY AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED. LOCATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN RECENTLY
RECEIVED UP TO 1" OF PRECIP, AND THUS FIRE CONCERNS DECREASE WITH
ELEVATION.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW, HOW FREQUENTLY SHORTWAVES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW, AND WHEN THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE
REGION. AT THIS TIME, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR THE CURRENT
PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, HOT
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EAST, AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEST. EARLY NEXT WEEK, ONCE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH,
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL AND THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
INCREASE. ARCHER
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS/ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLIGHT CATEGORIES, WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE HRRR IS STEADILY BACKING OFF THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
STORM TO MOVE ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER EAST OF SHERIDAN COUNTY IN
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SLIGHT
POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER STORM. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT
OUTSIDE OF A FEW STRONGER GUSTS UP TO 35KTS WITH SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN VALLEYS (KLVM) WHERE STORM MOTION AND VALLEY ORIENTATION
ALIGN. MIXED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 17Z TOMORROW
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30KT RANGE EXPECTED. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 060/086 057/090 057/084 056/078 057/077 054/074
0/U 20/B 00/U 10/U 10/B 54/W 43/W
LVM 081 047/079 047/083 047/080 047/077 048/074 044/072
0/N 00/N 00/U 10/U 01/U 55/T 44/W
HDN 091 054/089 051/092 052/086 054/081 055/080 052/076
1/U 20/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 43/W 53/W
MLS 091 057/088 059/093 059/087 058/081 059/079 055/074
2/W 20/U 00/U 00/U 23/T 54/W 53/W
4BQ 091 060/089 061/095 061/089 060/084 060/083 057/077
2/W 20/U 00/U 00/U 12/T 53/W 43/W
BHK 089 056/089 058/097 060/091 055/085 055/082 051/077
1/U 20/B 00/U 00/U 13/T 55/W 43/T
SHR 088 052/087 052/092 054/086 052/080 053/081 050/076
0/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 02/W 33/W 33/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 123>128.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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