444
FXUS65 KBYZ 101909
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
109 PM MDT FRI JUL 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL CHALLENGE ALL-TIME RECORDS AT
ALL CLIMATE SITES.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING,
SOME WEAK ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
FORCING TO GENERATE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND A WEAK THUNDERSHOWER OR
TWO LATE TODAY (15 PERCENT CHANCE). WITH THIS, GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS MAY DEVELOP WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE NEAR THE SURFACE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN WEATHER STORY IS HEAT. MODELS AGREE ON A
POWERFUL RIDGE DOMINATING OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 20C BY SUNDAY, AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40C. HIGH TEMPERATURES OF 95 TO 112 DEGREES ARE
FORECAST, WARMEST ON SUNDAY. THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BE
FROM ABOUT BILLINGS EASTWARD WHERE THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF
EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY.
ALONG WITH THE HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S, WARMEST SUNDAY NIGHT, WILL
EXACERBATE THE RISK OF HEAT STRESS.
ALONG WITH THE HEAT, VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST, WITH
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DECREASING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AND TEENS TO 20S PERCENT MONDAY.
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL AREAS (GUSTS 20S TO 30S MPH) DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY,
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS, RECORD TEMPERATURES, AND EXTREMELY
LOW HUMIDITIES HAVE LED US TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NEARLY ALL THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF OUR CWA.
PLEASE TAKE EXTRA CARE NOT TO CAUSE A SPARK.
ENSEMBLES AGREE ON SHIFTING THE RIDGE EAST A BIT BY MIDWEEK
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
90S), AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO RETURN
TO THE AREA ALONG WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST REMARKABLE PWATS REACHING UP TO 1.50 INCHES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. ANY DECENT IMPULSE IN THE MONSOONAL
FLOW MAY RESULT IN STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THOSE PWAT TRENDS CLOSELY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
BELOW ARE THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT EACH OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS:
BILLINGS, MT 108F
LIVINGSTON, MT 105F
MILES CITY, MT 111F
SHERIDAN, WY 107F
BAKER, MT 109F
BT
AVIATION
VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (MAINLY
FROM 20-04Z) THAT COULD PRODUCE ERRATIC SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO
~30KTS. KSHR IS THE MOST LIKELY TAF SITE TO SEE A THUNDERSTORM,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW SO HAVE NOT ADDED TS TO ANY TAF SITE.
JKL/PM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/104 068/109 071/100 072/099 069/091 065/090 065/092
10/G 00/G 00/U 00/U 44/T 53/T 41/U
LVM 056/102 060/106 061/100 063/095 060/089 057/088 057/091
10/G 00/G 00/U 04/T 57/T 64/T 33/T
HDN 061/105 065/111 070/102 069/101 068/094 064/092 064/094
10/G 00/G 00/G 00/G 23/T 42/T 41/U
MLS 066/104 069/111 075/102 071/102 070/096 066/092 066/093
00/G 00/G 00/G 00/G 21/U 21/B 21/B
4BQ 068/102 069/107 074/105 072/103 071/097 067/092 066/092
10/G 00/G 00/G 00/G 11/U 31/B 21/B
BHK 065/101 067/107 072/103 068/101 066/095 063/090 062/089
11/G 00/G 00/G 00/G 11/U 21/B 12/T
SHR 058/101 061/106 068/101 065/100 064/093 062/089 061/091
00/G 00/N 00/G 00/U 13/T 34/T 33/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES
29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 123>133.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 199.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 274.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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