953
FXUS65 KBYZ 061911
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
111 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM, DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRE
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, AND MAY BE CRITICAL ON FRIDAY
WITH INCREASED WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES.
- PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMING MORE LIKELY. DETAILS STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN. WET SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW BEING DOMINANT. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS BEING POSSIBLE. 500 MB TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA FRIDAY SETTING UP A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. THIS SETUP IS
EXPECTED TO PUT MUCH OF MONTANA INTO THE DRY SLOT WITH DOWNSLOPING
700 MB WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S F WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS ARE LIKELY. WINDS GUSTING INTO 20S
MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH 30S AND 40S MPH FOR THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS ARE EXPECTED.
A PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL DIVE SOUTH ALONG THE
WEST COAST. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SETTING UP OVER MONTANA AND THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, IT
WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS MONTANA SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL ADVECT IN PACIFIC MOISTURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE UNKNOWN
FRONTAL TIMING. LOCATIONS NEAR JUDITH GAP COULD SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S F ON THE LOW END WHILE LOCATIONS IN FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING MAY STILL
EXPERIENCE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S F ON THE
HIGH END. THERE IS MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING HIGHS BELOW
50 F.
THERE IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIPITATION AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE, THOUGH THERE ARE A FEW GENERAL STATEMENTS
THAT CAN BE MADE. LOCATIONS NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL
RECEIVE MORE PRECIPITATION AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SEEING
SNOWFALL AND HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS. LOCATIONS WEST OF ROSEBUD
COUNTY HAVE A 50-80% CHANCE OF GETTING GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION WITH LOCATIONS TO THE EAST HAVING A 20-50% CHANCE.
THE CHANCES FOR GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS FROM YELLOWSTONE COUNTY AND WEST ARE IN THE 40-70%
RANGE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AND BEGIN TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY MONDAY. STAY TUNED
TO THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE CLEAR. TORGERSON
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ALONG
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS EVENING. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/074 045/079 050/084 053/067 036/042 030/041 031/052
00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 79/W 84/W 32/W
LVM 046/079 043/080 046/082 046/067 030/041 023/044 024/051
00/U 00/U 00/N 04/W 89/W 84/J 32/W
HDN 043/075 039/078 044/086 048/070 037/046 031/045 029/054
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 78/W 74/W 32/W
MLS 046/071 043/074 048/083 050/069 040/048 036/045 035/052
00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 57/W 74/W 22/W
4BQ 049/074 045/077 050/086 052/074 041/051 037/048 036/053
00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 45/W 74/W 33/W
BHK 046/072 042/075 047/085 050/075 037/051 032/047 029/052
00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 36/W 85/W 32/W
SHR 046/076 042/078 044/085 048/076 035/049 030/047 029/054
00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 67/W 84/W 44/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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