848
FXUS65 KBYZ 160718
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
118 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MT.
- WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- COLD FRONT BRINGS A COOL DOWN AND A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS.
- INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH MONDAY)...
A JET MAX MOVING OVERHEAD AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
ISOLATED SHOWERS (15-25%) TO NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST TODAY AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT WESTERLY WINDS OF 40 TO 55 MPH OVER THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS AND WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH OVER THE PLAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90,
THERE IS SOME FIRE DANGER CONCERN FOR AREAS THAT SAW LOWER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM THE RECENT EVENT. TAKE CARE NOT TO
CAUSE A SPARK!
AS THE WAVE MOVES THROUGH, THERE IS A 20-60% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA, INCLUDING THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF FALLON COUNTY FOR TODAY, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60+ MPH AND
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WENDESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25
TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER THE FAR
EAST AND DOWN ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIGHORNS, WHERE GUSTS OF
40-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, OCCASIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW, ALLOWING ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE (20% OR
LESS CHANCE). INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES
INTO THE WEST. THIS WOULD BRING BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DAILY
THUNDERSTORMS AS SHORTWAVES LIFT INTO THE REGION AND PLAINS
MOISTURE ADVECTS INTO THE AREA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90, INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S WENDESDAY. THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. ARCHER
AVIATION
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM KMLS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS THROUGH MID MORNING,
BUT SHOULD NOT REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORY. MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA BRINGING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO
THE TAFS BY 10Z. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN AROUND 16Z,
WITH GUSTS 25-40KTS COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. SOMEWHAT STRONGER
WINDS (GUSTS TO 45KTS) ARE EXPECTED NEAR KLVM/K6SO/K1KM. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 089 058/076 051/077 052/084 058/082 056/078 053/076
0/N 00/N 10/U 00/B 03/T 42/T 42/T
LVM 084 053/075 044/077 045/085 050/079 047/076 045/074
0/N 00/N 10/U 00/B 06/T 54/T 43/T
HDN 089 055/075 048/076 048/084 056/083 054/078 050/076
0/N 10/N 10/U 00/B 12/T 52/W 32/T
MLS 087 056/072 048/074 048/079 055/081 054/075 051/074
1/N 22/T 11/U 00/U 02/T 43/W 32/W
4BQ 086 057/072 048/073 048/081 056/082 054/074 051/074
1/B 11/N 01/U 00/U 14/T 64/W 44/T
BHK 083 050/067 043/070 043/076 049/077 049/071 046/072
3/W 55/T 12/T 00/U 02/T 55/T 33/W
SHR 085 053/071 044/072 045/083 050/080 049/074 047/073
0/B 10/N 11/U 00/B 17/T 66/T 56/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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