778
FXUS65 KBYZ 142001
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
201 PM MDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN FAR SOUTH-EASTERN MONTANA
AND NORTH-EASTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN MONTANA THURSDAY.
- WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- WARMER AND DRY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF WIND
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXIST TODAY UNDER WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MOST, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER FAR SOUTH- EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING WHERE
THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH EXISTS.
LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, A DRY COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED
TO PUSH ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE REGION AND BRING
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. WITH THIS, A SURFACE INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT TONIGHT, THOUGH HIGHER HILLS
AND MOUNTAINS COULD SEE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. AS THE INVERSION
BREAKS THURSDAY MORNING, THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL THEN MIX
DOWN. WHILE WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO 20S MPH WILL BE COMMON FOR
MOST, WIND GUSTS IN THE 30S AND 40S MPH ARE FORECAST OVER FAR
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING (ROSEBUD COUNTY, MT TO
SHERIDAN COUNTY, WY AND EAST). A WIND GUST OF 50+ MPH IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES AS
WELL (60 PERCENT CHANCE).
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION, BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. DURING
THIS TIME, WINDY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND NEAR/NORTH OF THE BIGHORN BASIN
AND BIGHORN CANYON. ON SUNDAY, ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT WILL END THE
WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS COMPARED TO SATURDAY.
A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN MONDAY, ALLOWING DRY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SUGGEST A BREAK DOWN OF
THE RIDGE AND LARGE SCALE TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A RETURN
TO COOLER CONDITIONS WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. LA
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER NEAR KSHR THROUGH 03Z.
BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM NW TO SE
SHIFTING THE WINDS TO NORTHWESTERLY SUSTAINED BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KTS. KSHR WILL SEE THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVERNIGHT (BETWEEN 06Z AND
15Z) WITH 30KT GUSTS POSSIBLE. AFTER 15Z, MUCH OF THE REGION WILL
SEE BREEZY NW WINDS, WITH THE PLAINS REGION (KMLS/KBHK) FORECAST
TO EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS UP TO 40KTS. LOCATIONS THAT DO
NOT EXPERIENCE GUSTY SURFACE WINDS BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z SHOULD
ANTICIPATE SOME MINOR LLWS UP TO 20KTS. KLVM WILL LIKELY MISS OUT
ON MOST OF THE POST- FRONTAL WINDS, HOWEVER GUSTS UP TO 20KTS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET TODAY. MOUNTAINS NEAR KSHR WILL BE
OBSCURED THROUGH 06Z. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 037/051 030/062 046/072 043/061 040/068 042/061 040/053
00/U 00/U 00/N 00/U 00/U 01/B 32/W
LVM 029/051 028/068 039/072 037/064 038/070 039/059 035/053
01/U 00/U 00/N 00/U 00/U 14/W 53/W
HDN 034/054 026/065 033/075 038/066 036/070 039/064 037/058
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 22/W
MLS 038/049 026/061 037/072 043/062 040/068 041/063 041/056
00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 22/W
4BQ 040/050 027/062 041/074 043/064 041/071 042/067 042/059
10/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 22/W
BHK 034/049 023/057 038/075 041/064 036/069 039/068 037/059
00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/W
SHR 034/052 026/064 035/075 040/065 035/070 038/066 037/057
11/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 02/W 43/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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