039
FXUS65 KBYZ 181853
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1253 PM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST/FREEZE TUESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
HIGH 20S F. MAKE SURE TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
- ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE (40-90%) OF
PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6,500
FT.
- 50% CHANCE FOR GETTING GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS. POSSIBLE IMPACTS TO THE EAST SIDE
BURN SCAR.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO HIGH 20S F FOR MOST LOCATIONS. ACT NOW TO PROTECT
SENSITIVE PLANTS. TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 60S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A 500 MB WAVE IMPACT THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS WAVE DIVING FURTHER SOUTH WITH
INCREASING PRECIPITATION VALUES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY BRINGING 40-90% PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH CHANCES DECREASING FROM WEST
TO EAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST WYOMING/WESTERN DAKOTAS
IS EXPECTED TO TURN 700 MB WINDS NORTHEASTERLY BRINGING GOOD
UPSLOPE FOR FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. ENSEMBLES SHOW THAT THE FARTHER
THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH AND THE FARTHER WEST THE TROUGH SETS UP,
THE MORE PRECIPITATION THE REGION CAN EXPECT TO RECEIVE. THE NBM
IS GIVING LOCATIONS WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY A 40-90% CHANCE OF
GETTING GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. LOCATIONS FROM ROSEBUD
COUNTY AND EAST HAVE A 20-40% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND RAIN FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6,500 FT.
GIVEN THE FAVORABLE SETUP FOR THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS THERE IS A
50% CHANCE FOR GETTING GREATER THAN 0.75 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION.
THIS COULD CAUSE CONCERN FOR THE EAST SIDE BURN SCAR. STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AND THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LONG DURATION
ACTING TO LIMIT ANY BURN SCAR RISKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO BE
IMPORTANT, IF SNOW LEVELS SET UP LOWER THERE WILL BE NO RISK TO
THE BURN SCAR.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN 70S F WEDNESDAY BEFORE COOLING
INTO THE 60S F THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE 70S AND 80S F WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
TORGERSON
AVIATION
ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE SHOWERS. EXPECT OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION DUE TO
MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THE EVENING. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
DECREASE OVERNIGHT, SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE (20% CHANCE) FOR
CENTRAL AND EASTERN VALLEYS, INCLUDING NEAR KSHR AND KMLS. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050 030/067 042/071 043/061 040/068 043/079 049/085
1/E 00/U 11/B 87/T 21/B 00/U 01/U
LVM 048 026/062 036/065 036/057 034/066 038/075 045/081
4/W 10/B 13/T 98/T 21/B 10/U 11/U
HDN 050 026/067 036/073 041/061 037/069 040/078 046/085
1/E 00/U 00/B 57/T 31/B 10/U 01/U
MLS 048 030/064 040/073 044/065 040/069 042/077 047/083
1/E 00/U 00/B 44/W 21/B 10/U 01/U
4BQ 045 029/062 039/072 042/064 040/066 042/076 047/083
3/W 00/U 00/U 16/T 42/W 10/U 01/U
BHK 046 028/060 036/073 039/066 037/066 040/075 046/083
4/W 20/U 00/B 25/T 32/W 20/U 01/U
SHR 043 024/060 031/067 036/055 033/064 035/074 040/082
9/W 00/U 01/B 39/T 43/W 11/U 01/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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