135
FXUS65 KBYZ 111932
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
132 PM MDT MON MAY 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT TODAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH
MID WEEK, BRINGING AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS.
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A SYSTEM BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS
ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
BRINGING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH (GREATEST OVER THE NORTH AND EAST). WEAK
CONVECTION OFF OF THE SOUTHERN BEARTOOTHS IS SHOWN BY MODELS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON, THE CHANCE IS LOW AND THE ONLY CONCERNS WOULD BE
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MT UNTIL 9 PM THIS
EVENING, WITH HOT, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS. WITHIN THE WARNING,
THE MAIN CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 94 AND US HIGHWAY
12. PLEASE TAKE CARE NOT TO CAUSE A SPARK.
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY, THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO 80F. AS A LOW CONTINUES MOVING EAST THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS, LINGERING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST ALONG
THE DAKOTAS BORDER WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 30 MPH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER MONTANA ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (15 TO 30F), WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90SF. ALONG WITH THESE TEMPERATURES, DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HEAT RISK
IS LOW, HOWEVER BE PREPARED FOR THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE
YEAR AND MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED! SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO
INCREASE OVER THE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WITH WINDS GUSTING IN THE
20S AND 30S MPH. THE GREATEST GUSTS ARE FORECAST IN THE EAST AND
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS. MODELS ARE STILL WORKING OUT
DISCREPANCIES ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, BUT THE
LATEST TIMEFRAME LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY. CURRENTLY, ENERGY ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE TROUGH IS
DEPICTED MOVING ACROSS THE WEST, BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S MPH. SOUNDINGS SHOW MODEST
INSTABILITY OF A FEW HUNDRED CAPE AND LOTS OF DCAPE. WITH THIS,
THE MAIN CONCERN IS DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH MANY LOCATIONS ARE STILL IN THE
GREEN-UP, AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THESE CONDITIONS.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SHOW THIS TROUGH BECOMING AN UPPER
LOW THAT MOVES THROUGH MT INTO SOUTHERN CANADA ON THURSDAY. THE
LATEST FORECAST AND TRENDS HAVE A 10-40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
IN THE WEST, WITH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA MISSING OUT. TO RUB
SALT INTO THE WOUND, THE LOW SLIDING NORTH OF THE AREA WOULD BRING
GUSTY TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WIND GUSTS OF 40
TO 55 MPH ARE FORECAST, WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS OVER THE PLAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS. ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS WILL
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONG WINDS, WARMTH, AND DRYNESS.
THE GENERAL PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME UNSETTLED FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A FEW WAVES BRINGING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S AND
70SF THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MATOS
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
LIGHT VIRGA MAY HANG AROUND THROUGH 20Z BUT SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR IN THE COMING HOURS. BREEZY NW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE PLAINS.
GUSTS AT KBIL SHOULD STAY AROUND 20 KTS. AFTER 03Z WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND SLOWLY SWITCH TO EASTERLY. SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE BUT WAS
NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS THIS FORECAST IS FOR A ROUGHLY 20KT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND 010 AGL. BY 16Z WINDS FOR MOST
SITES WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10KTS (THIS INCLUDES KBIL AND
KSHR). CLOSER TO THE DAKOTAS (KMLS/KBHK) WINDS WILL STIL BE AROUND
10KTS BUT OUT OF THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047/076 049/092 057/075 048/076 047/074 043/062 039/068
00/U 00/U 12/W 11/U 11/B 32/T 11/B
LVM 042/079 047/089 047/069 040/071 041/066 034/056 033/064
00/U 02/W 43/T 21/N 12/T 43/T 11/B
HDN 043/076 047/092 054/076 045/075 044/075 041/063 037/068
00/U 00/U 12/W 21/U 11/U 33/W 11/B
MLS 045/075 045/090 056/077 048/074 045/075 043/063 038/066
00/U 00/N 21/N 21/N 10/B 42/W 11/B
4BQ 046/073 045/090 058/076 046/073 045/076 043/061 038/064
00/U 00/U 11/N 21/U 10/U 33/W 21/B
BHK 042/073 041/084 053/076 046/072 043/075 042/061 036/063
00/U 00/N 11/N 10/N 21/B 43/W 21/B
SHR 040/073 042/089 049/075 040/072 040/074 037/059 033/064
10/U 01/U 02/W 11/U 11/U 34/T 22/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 130-132-133.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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