874
FXUS65 KBYZ 241204
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
604 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, INCREASED RISK OF
HEAT RELATED HEALTH IMPACTS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
- LOW RISK (10-30%) OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
A WEAK EMBEDDED WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE RIDGE HAS BROUGHT ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WERE STRONG TO BRIEFLY
SEVERE PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, CURRENTLY OVER
YELLOWSTONE AND TREASURE COUNTIES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE UPDATED POPS AND WEATHER TO
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE, HOT CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION, MAINLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STP
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT LOCATIONS WEST
OF BILLINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS
CONVECTION WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THESE STORMS HAVE
A HISTORY OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR BUTTE AND HELENA.
RIDGING AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE RETURN OF VERY WARM
CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO LOW 100SF.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT OF THIS WARMTH PERSISTING
INTO NEXT WEEK. THE WARMEST DAY OF THE STRETCH LOOKS TO BE
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS UP TO 110F ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
THROUGH 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN
MONTANA AND SHERIDAN COUNTY, WYOMING. FOR THE FOOTHILLS WEST AND
SOUTH OF BILLINGS, HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THIS MORNING
UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY. ALONG WITH THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
COME WARM NIGHTTIME LOWS, LIMITING RELIEF. PLEASE TAKE PRECAUTIONS
TO PROTECT YOURSELF FROM THE HEAT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGH
BASED CONVECTION POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW, IN THE 10S PERCENT
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS WITH ANY
CONVECTION WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO IN STORE, WITH WEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30
MPH.
THE VERY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BRING ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONALLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY WITH THE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, AND HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. AS A
RESULT, A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA,
NORTHERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE CONDITIONS EXIST ON
CONVECTION PRODUCING THE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
A MONSOONAL WAVE COMES THROUGH THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY, BRINGING
THE MENTIONED CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP
INVERTED-V PROFILES INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND
GUSTS. PWAT VALUES ARE STILL ABOVE NORMAL, UP TO AN INCH IN
SOUTHERN MONTANA, WHICH COULD THROW A WRINKLE INTO HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGH CLOUDS. WET MICROBURST ACTIVITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AS WELL POTENTIALLY MIXING THE
HIGHER PWATS TO THE SURFACE. WHILE STORMS WILL NOT BE DRY,
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS A BAND OF HIGH- BASED CONVECTION MOVING WEST- EAST FROM THE
CRAZIES AND PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH THROUGH
SOUTHERN MONTANA SATURDAY EVENING. THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLOOK HAS A MARGINAL RISK OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MONTANA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST FOR MODEL TRENDS GOING INTO TOMORROW.
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON SUNDAY, WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF
STORMS. LOOK FOR A WEAK WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH, ESPECIALLY IN IN
SOUTHEAST MONTANA WHERE GUSTS IN THE 20S MPH ARE FORECAST. BREEZY
CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS ARE FORECAST AS WELL WITH GUSTS OF 20
TO 35 MPH.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE HOT AND DRY BUT WITH LESSER THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL, AND A WEAK BACKDOOR WIND SHIFT. NORTH WINDS MAY BE
SOMEWHAT BREEZY IN THE EAST. THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A DAILY
RISK (10-25% CHANCE) OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS REMAIN
SLIGHTLY WETTER THAN NORMAL SO THE STORMS WILL NOT BE DRY, BUT
THEY WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
GUSTY/ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS, WHICH WITH THE LIGHTNING ITSELF WILL
BE PROBLEMATIC FOR ANY NEW FIRES THAT DEVELOP OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
FINALLY FOR THOSE KEEPING UP ON THE JULY 25TH DRAMA. BILLINGS
AIRPORT HAS NEVER (SINCE 1934) REACHED 100F ON THIS DATE, BUT IT
REALLY SHOULD HAPPEN THIS YEAR. CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR 102F,
CONSISTENT WITH 700MB TEMPS OF +16C AND DEEP MIXING. WITH THE
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT AND EVENTUAL CONVECTION ON SATURDAY, IT IS
AT LEAST PLAUSIBLE THAT CLOUD COVER HOLDS BACK SURFACE HEATING
JUST A BIT. THE JULY 25TH RECORD IS 98F, SO IT IS POSSIBLE TO
BREAK THE RECORD AND STILL NOT REACH 100F. STAY TUNED.
PM/JKL
AVIATION
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF KBIL THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF TODAY, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. WITH THIS ACTIVITY, MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES WILL REDUCE SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. EXPECT SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS TO INCREASE TO
THE NORTH, WITH THE HIGHEST SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS OVER NORTHERN
MONTANA. HOT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO HIGH
DENSITY ALTITUDE AT TIMES. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 102 069/102 069/100 068/096 067/096 068/098 067/097
2/G 22/T 21/U 20/U 10/U 10/U 11/U
LVM 098 060/099 059/098 059/095 057/094 058/096 058/095
1/K 22/T 22/T 21/U 20/U 11/U 11/U
HDN 102 066/103 066/101 066/098 065/100 065/100 065/099
1/G 11/G 20/G 20/U 20/U 10/U 11/U
MLS 102 069/106 073/102 071/099 069/100 070/102 069/098
2/G 10/G 30/G 11/U 11/U 11/G 11/U
4BQ 100 069/104 070/101 070/098 068/099 069/100 069/098
0/K 00/G 20/G 31/U 11/U 11/U 21/U
BHK 101 065/107 069/103 066/099 064/099 066/102 065/097
0/N 00/G 20/G 11/U 12/T 21/G 22/T
SHR 097 063/100 064/098 064/095 062/096 063/096 063/095
2/K 21/B 21/U 21/U 11/U 11/U 12/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 29>34-36-37-42-57-58-138-139-169-170-173-235.
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
40-56-63>66-141-172-228.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 123>133.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
199.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 274-284.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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