220
FXUS65 KBYZ 011712
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1012 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN FOOTHILLS MONDAY WITH GUSTS
40-55 MPH EXPECTED. GUSTS 30-45 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THE
PLAINS.
- MOSTLY DRY AND VERY WARM WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- INCREASED GRASS FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
CURRENT ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ALONG
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS. A PRESSURE GRADIENT FAVORABLE FOR A GAP
WIND PATTERN PERSISTS FOR THE LIVINGSTON/NYE AREAS (AND WILL FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS). A STRONGER 700MB JET 40-55 KTS WILL
MOVE OVER MT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
THAT THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS MUCH FOR THE LIVINGSTON AREA AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOWERS TO AROUND 8-10MB DURING THIS TIME. GUSTS
40-55 MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ABOUT A 40% CHANCE
FOR HITTING 60 MPH. WITH THE WINDS HITTING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND THE QUICK NATURE OF THIS WAVE, THERE IS ALSO LOW
CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG WINDS FOR BIG TIMBER THROUGH HARLOWTON.
GUSTS 40-55 WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING TO LATE
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO 60 MPH IS ABOUT 40%.
THIS DISTURBANCE IS ALSO LIKELY TO BRING GUSTS 30-45 MPH ACROSS
THE REGION EARLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS THIS SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MT, EAST CENTRAL MT
HAS UP TO A 25% CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX MID DAY MONDAY. INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, AN ADDITIONAL WAVE FOLLOWS AND BRINGS IN
SMALL PRECIP CHANCES FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MT (BEST CHANCES IN THE
MOUNTAINS). THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST ENSEMBLES THAT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN US WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. DURING THIS TIME THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH
CHANCES FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE 65 OR GREATER ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL MT AND SHERIDAN CO, WY. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR HIGH
TEMPS OF AT LEAST 70. WITH LITTLE TO NO RECENT PRECIPITATION
ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT, THERE IS A GROWING CONCERN FOR
GRASS FIRES AS WARM, DRY AND PERIODIC BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
BE CAREFUL TO NOT CAUSE A SPARK THROUGH THIS WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOW 60S, WITH HIGH
CHANCES FOR 65+ HIGHS MID TO LATE WEEK. TS
AVIATION
18Z TAF DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY
TO GUSTY (20 TO 40KTS) ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, STRONGEST OVER THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY TO STRONG OVER THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE PLAINS AROUND
SUNSET. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT, STIRRING UP THE WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AGAIN. WESTERN
FOOTHILLS COULD APPROACH 50KTS BRIEFLY AS THE FRONT ARRIVES. OVER
THE PLAINS THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO 35KTS, BUT
MOST LIKELY WILL SEE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOP WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OF 40 TO 55KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE. AS THE
SUN COMES UP WILL SEE WINDS BEGIN TO MIX DOWN AROUND 15 TO 16Z
RESULTING IN A GUSTY MID TO LATE MORNING OVER THE PLAINS. AREAS
FROM MILES CITY EASTWARD COULD SEE A FEW MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR PRECIPITATION
AREAS. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 037/056 033/055 031/060 039/063 033/058 033/057
0/B 00/N 11/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
LVM 058 034/048 032/050 031/056 035/059 033/058 032/053
0/N 00/N 10/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
HDN 058 032/057 030/055 027/060 036/064 027/058 028/056
0/B 00/N 11/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
MLS 047 029/051 028/049 025/055 036/058 026/048 027/048
0/E 01/N 01/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
4BQ 054 032/051 030/049 026/057 038/060 028/054 028/052
0/B 00/N 01/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
BHK 040 024/043 023/041 021/047 030/052 025/045 024/045
0/B 02/O 11/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
SHR 060 027/051 025/049 025/057 033/061 028/057 028/053
0/B 00/N 12/O 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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