405
FXUS65 KBYZ 192041
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
241 PM MDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY INTO THURSDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS.
- A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, WINDY
CONDITIONS, AND PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON EXACT IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES
EXIST TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES NUDGES INTO THE REGION. OVER THE PLAINS OF EASTERN MONTANA
(GENERALLY AROUND AND EAST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY), WINDY CONDITIONS
EXIST TODAY AS WELL, WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 40S
(MPH). THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, EXPECTED THESE WINDS TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 30S AND
40S (F) FOR MOST.
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S (F), WARMEST ON THURSDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 50S
AS WELL, COLDEST TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST,
THOUGH THERE IS AN OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THE ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM. WITH THIS, SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 30S TO
50 MPH ARE FORECAST. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN
THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME, WINDY CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER
THE PLAINS AROUND AND SOUTH/EAST OF BUFFALO, WY. WITH THIS, A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS COULD IMPACT FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN SHERIDAN COUNTY,
WYOMING FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT (MEDIUM CHANCE).
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH OUR REGION, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT
THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE WITH SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH MERGES WITH A
TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. AS FAR AS THE WIND POTENTIAL GOES,
THERE IS CURRENTLY A MEDIUM CHANCE OF SEEING WIND GUSTS GREATER
THAN 40 MPH ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE CHANCE IS LOWER, THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW 50 MPH WIND
GUSTS AROUND WHEATLAND COUNTY (MT) AND SHERIDAN COUNTY (WY). FOR
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS GREATEST
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-WESTERN/CENTRAL
WYOMING (70+ PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION). CANNOT RULE OUT A
WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AS WELL, THOUGH THE CHANCE IS LOW (10
PERCENT). WHILE ALL RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE PLAINS DURING THIS
EVENT, SNOW LEVELS STARTING AROUND 10,000 FEET LOOK TO DROP TO
AROUND 5,000 FEET SATURDAY. THEREFORE, SNOW IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
MOUNTAINS DURING THIS EVENT. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO, THE CHANCE OF
SEEING 0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION (RAIN OR MELTED SNOW)
IS 50 TO 80 PERCENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, DECREASING WELL
BELOW 50 PERCENT OVER EASTERN MONTANA. THE CHANCE OF SEEING 6 OR
MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS 50 PERCENT IN THE ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER IN THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAIN RANGES.
CONDITIONS TREND DRIER LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION. LA
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
WINDS OUT OF THE SE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH 01Z WITH
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS POSSIBLE IN KBHK AND 30 KTS AT KMLS. BETWEEN
00Z AND 08Z THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS IN THESE SAME REGIONS, HOWEVER
THE SPEEDS ARE TOO LIGHT FOR A MENTION THE TAF. THERE COULD BE
SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE VICINITY OF KMLS BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z
BUT THE CHANCE FOR FOG AT THE TERMINAL IS LOW. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. NOSIG FORECAST
FOR KBIL. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 043/067 040/065 045/074 049/064 040/053 034/054 033/051
00/U 00/U 00/U 28/W 71/B 01/B 21/B
LVM 038/069 037/070 041/073 042/056 030/050 028/055 028/054
00/B 11/U 00/U 3+/W 81/B 11/B 22/J
HDN 035/068 035/070 039/076 045/068 036/054 029/057 029/054
00/U 00/U 00/U 17/W 71/B 00/U 11/B
MLS 039/068 038/068 046/073 050/069 038/051 033/055 032/052
00/U 00/U 00/U 03/W 61/N 00/U 11/B
4BQ 043/070 039/070 050/077 055/073 041/052 035/058 035/055
00/U 00/U 00/U 02/W 51/B 00/U 11/B
BHK 038/071 036/067 043/078 051/076 036/051 029/055 028/052
00/U 00/U 00/U 01/N 41/N 00/U 11/B
SHR 038/071 036/072 043/075 046/069 034/052 029/058 030/056
00/U 00/U 00/U 04/W 72/W 00/U 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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