978
FXUS65 KBYZ 200630
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1230 AM MDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRIER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND.
- POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN OVER THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY. WEAK ENERGY RIDING
OVER THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A SMALL CHANCE (LESS THAN 20%) FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER AREA MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
BY SATURDAY, A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
TURNING UPPER LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND ALLOWING
INCREASED MOISTURE (PWATS 150-200% OF NORMAL) TO ENTER THE
REGION. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH ENERGY
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30-60% CHANCE, HIGHEST OVER THE
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS) ON SATURDAY.
AS THE DISTURBANCE SLIDES EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE, AS WELL AS A 30-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION INTO MONDAY, DRIER AIR
MOVES IN ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE
BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING DRY AIR, THERE MAY
BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER WILL STILL HAVE
MOISTURE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (PWATS 100-120% OF NORMAL)
AND WILL SEE A LOW CHANCE (10-40%) FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
BY TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AGAIN, WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ENTER THE REGION.
THIS MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A LOW DAILY CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S. ARCHER
AVIATION
WILDFIRE SMOKE CONCENTRATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY,
ALLOWING FOR IMPROVEMENTS TO SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 063/091 064/090 064/093 061/087 061/089 062/091
0/K 00/U 01/B 21/B 20/U 11/B 21/B
LVM 093 056/093 056/087 054/087 050/085 050/086 051/087
0/U 00/U 04/T 53/T 11/U 22/T 42/T
HDN 094 059/093 061/094 061/096 058/089 057/091 058/093
0/K 00/U 01/B 21/B 20/U 11/B 21/B
MLS 091 062/090 062/091 066/096 063/088 060/089 062/092
0/K 00/U 00/B 21/B 10/U 00/U 21/U
4BQ 092 063/093 063/090 066/094 063/089 061/089 062/092
0/K 00/B 01/B 42/W 20/U 11/B 11/U
BHK 090 057/091 055/088 060/091 058/089 055/089 056/091
0/K 00/B 00/N 32/T 20/U 11/U 11/B
SHR 091 058/092 058/091 060/091 056/087 055/088 055/090
0/U 00/U 01/B 22/T 11/U 12/T 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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