926
FXUS65 KBYZ 170707
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
107 AM MDT SUN MAY 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY
INTO MONDAY.
- WET SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BEARTOOTH AND RED
LODGE FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY. RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH
LITTLE ACCUMULATION OVER NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTH-EASTERN
MONTANA MONDAY. MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
- MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY INTO MONDAY. RECREATION COULD BE
IMPACTED BY WINTER CONDITIONS.
- WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, COLDEST
MONDAY NIGHT. MAKE SURE TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
- WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH
OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING IS
BRINGING BRISK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS (GUSTS IN THE 20S TO 50S MPH)
TO MANY LOCATIONS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WINDY SOUTH-EASTERLY
WINDS EXIST OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A
LOW LEVEL JET. WITH THIS, WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE COMMON,
BUT ISOLATED GUSTS INTO THE 50S MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS SHOWERS, AND
MAYBE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS (15 PERCENT CHANCE), POTENTIALLY
DUCT STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE AT TIMES
(SLIGHT CHANCE). ONCE THE COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN
MONTANA INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 4 TO 7 AM MDT TODAY, BRISK
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION. ALONG WITH THE
WIND, SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AS IT DOES, THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS THE STRONG FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING IS LOST. BEFORE IT DOES, PRECIPITATION WILL OCCASIONALLY
SWITCH OVER TO SNOW, MAINLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS.
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THOUGH
DUE TO WARMER GROUND TEMPERATURES.
TODAY WILL BE A BREEZY AND MOSTLY DRY DAY TO START WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AROUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S AND 50S. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOOKS TO TURN WINDS MORE OUT OF THE NORTH.
WHILE SUBTLE, IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW MORE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, ESPECIALLY AROUND THE
BEARTOOTH AND RED LODGE FOOTHILLS. IN THESE LOCATIONS, SOUNDING
INDICATE THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL SATURATE NEAR THE SURFACE,
ALLOWING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION TO FORM. WITH THIS, A PERIOD OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY OVER
THE BEARTOOTH AND RED LODGE FOOTHILLS. WHILE AMOUNTS STILL VARY
BETWEEN MODELS, GENERALLY A TRACE TO 4 INCHES ARE FORECAST WITH
THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS. BECAUSE OF
THIS, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE BEARTOOTH AND RED LODGE
FOOTHILLS REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6PM MDT TODAY TO NOON MDT MONDAY.
THE MOUNTAINS ALSO LOOK TO GET INTO THE ACTION DURING THIS TIME
WITH 5 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW FORECAST IN THE ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH
MOUNTAINS, 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FORECAST IN THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS, AND 2 TO 5 INCHES IN THE PRYOR MOUNTAINS. BECAUSE OF
THIS, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE PRYOR AND BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM MDT TODAY TO NOON MDT MONDAY
FOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ALONG HIGHWAY 14. ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS, AROUND SHERIDAN, WY, WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN A
LITTLE TOO DOWNSLOPE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, LIMITING PRECIPITATION
FOR THE TIME BEING.
MONDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 40S. WITH THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES, ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCATTERED PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST, ESPECIALLY
FOR NORTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTH-EASTERN MONTANA, AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WRAPS UP OVER WYOMING AND MOVES EAST INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH SNOW LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 4000 FEET,
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE A RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVER THE PLAINS.
WHILE DYNAMIC COOLING COULD FAVOR SNOW OVER RAIN AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY IF THE SYSTEM TRACKS A BIT CLOSER TO OUR AREA, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH THE MAY SUN ANGLE WILL LIMIT ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. AT THIS TIME, POTENTIAL
LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS (RAIN OR MELTED SNOW) ARE AROUND A
COUPLE TENTHS TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR THE LOCATIONS
MENTIONED ABOVE. THE PRECIPITATION THEN COMES TO AN END LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVES INTO THE AREA.
THE EARLY WEEK WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING FROST AND FREEZE
CONDITIONS TO MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AND
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING (COLDEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING).
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SYSTEMS PASSING
THROUGH THE FLOW ARE THEN FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS, DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK INTO THE 70S WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, MAINLY
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. ARENDS
AVIATION
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST
BY DAYBREAK. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 45 KTS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHERLY WINDS WITH WIDESPREAD
GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE BECOMING
MORE FOCUSED INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOK FOR MORE ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
ELSEWHERE. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA THIS EVENING. MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OBSCURED THROUGH THE
PERIOD DUE TO SNOW. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056 036/049 032/065 041/069 043/070 047/074 048/077
2/W 22/W 00/U 03/T 41/B 12/T 31/B
LVM 048 028/047 025/061 035/063 036/067 041/070 041/074
4/T 45/T 20/B 14/T 42/W 24/T 32/W
HDN 058 034/049 030/065 035/071 040/071 044/075 045/078
1/B 24/W 00/U 02/T 31/B 12/T 31/B
MLS 059 036/048 033/061 037/071 042/071 045/075 046/076
1/N 14/W 10/B 00/B 31/B 11/B 21/B
4BQ 059 035/044 031/059 035/070 040/069 044/073 045/075
1/N 26/W 20/B 01/B 22/T 22/T 21/B
BHK 058 032/044 029/055 032/069 039/068 040/072 043/074
3/W 15/W 31/B 00/B 22/W 12/T 32/W
SHR 052 030/042 026/058 031/065 034/066 037/071 039/074
3/W 79/W 21/U 03/T 34/T 23/T 33/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON MDT MONDAY FOR ZONES 56-66-171.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON MDT MONDAY FOR ZONE 198.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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