052
FXUS65 KBYZ 070726
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
126 AM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOR TODAY, EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE NORTHEAST, THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING; SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
- DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN BEING
THE MAIN THREATS.
- TRENDING DRIER THURSDAY, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF BILLINGS.
- DRY AND VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT EXPECTED,
AND INCREASINGLY WARM NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES. HEAT RELATED
IMPACTS ARE LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
PLEASE BE AWARE THAT IT IS GOING TO BE VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND.
PLAN YOUR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ACCORDINGLY!
MORNING SHOWERS AND T-STORMS CONTINUE (ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST) W/ A SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND HEALTHY EARLY MORNING
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET. INSTABILITY IS MODEST SO NOT
EXPECTING SEVERE WX, BUT ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS (1.30" EAST OF
BILLINGS PER MESOANALYSIS) WILL YIELD AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. BY
AFTERNOON, WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE AND DIURNAL HEATING, EXPECT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EVENING. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SUPPORT A RISK OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL, STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN.
LOOK FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TURN DRIER IN THE ZONAL FLOW.
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, WITH HAIL, WIND AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN RISKS. THURSDAY'S AIR MASS WILL
BE DRIER YET AND THIS IS LOOKING LIKE A MOSTLY DRY DAY, BUT A FEW
DIURNAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST (DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF A FINAL WEAK SHORTWAVE, OF WHICH THERE IS MODEL
UNCERTAINTY). TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE
SEASONABLE. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S MOST PLACES.
HEIGHTS BUILD FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROF OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST. THIS WILL BE A WARMER DAY (TEMPS IN 90S) AND SHOULD
BE MOSTLY DRY, BUT A PV MAX EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN MAY BRING ISOLATED WEAK DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHEAST MT. THIS IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN AND AS OF NOW THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY IS DRY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS GUARANTEED TO BE THE
HOTTEST AIR MASS YET THIS SUMMER. TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS ARE LIKELY,
AND THIS COUPLED WITH INCREASINGLY WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPS OFFERING
MINIMAL RELIEF, WILL RESULT IN HEAT RELATED IMPACTS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY, AND POSSIBLY MONDAY. MAKE SURE TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM THE HEAT.
THE UPCOMING HOT SPELL MAY NOT JUST BE RUN-OF-THE-MILL JULY HEAT.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 700MB TEMPS TO +20C BY
SUNDAY. WITH TYPICAL MID-SUMMER MIXING (LOFTED SMOKE FROM THE
SOUTH COULD BE A PLAYER HERE), THIS WOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS QUITE A
BIT ABOVE 100F (ON THE ORDER OF 106F AT BILLINGS AND 108F AT
MILES CITY). A LITTLE DOWNSLOPE WIND COULD PUSH TEMPS EVEN HOTTER.
IT IS NOT INCONCEIVABLE THAT WE THREATEN ALL-TIME RECORD TEMPS IN
OUR CWA BY SUNDAY (SEE TABLE BELOW).
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS FOR A BIT OF COOLING TO BE INTRODUCED BY
MONDAY, AND EVENTUALLY AN INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE BY MONDAY
OR TUESDAY. EVEN WITH SLIGHT COOLING THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THRU AT LEAST THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK.
HERE ARE ALL-TIME RECORDS AT EACH OF OUR MAIN CLIMATE STATIONS:
BILLINGS 108F
LIVINGSTON 105F
MILES CITY 111F
SHERIDAN 107F
BAKER 109F
JKL
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY STARTING AROUND 18Z
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
EXITING INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. THAT MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS >60 MPH, HAIL >1 INCH, AND
HEAVY RAIN. HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE EAST OF
BILLINGS (KMLS, KBHK) THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TORGERSON
THUNDERSTORM TIMING
KLVM 18Z-00Z
KBIL 20Z-02Z
KSHR 20Z-05Z
KMLS 20Z-04Z
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 061/091 062/091 064/095 066/103 071/105 073/096
4/T 23/T 51/U 00/U 00/G 00/G 00/U
LVM 086 054/090 054/089 055/095 058/099 062/101 064/094
2/T 13/T 41/U 00/U 00/U 00/G 11/U
HDN 088 059/092 060/091 061/096 063/104 068/107 070/099
4/T 23/T 41/U 10/U 00/G 00/G 00/U
MLS 082 058/088 061/091 062/096 066/104 071/106 074/099
7/T 30/B 31/U 10/U 10/G 00/G 00/U
4BQ 088 061/089 061/090 063/095 066/102 071/106 074/101
3/T 42/T 43/T 21/U 10/G 00/G 00/G
BHK 077 053/084 057/089 057/093 062/100 067/103 069/098
8/T 40/B 23/T 21/U 10/U 00/G 00/U
SHR 087 057/088 056/088 057/094 060/102 066/106 069/097
4/T 44/T 43/T 11/U 00/G 00/G 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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