655
FXUS65 KBYZ 242335
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
535 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA MOUNTAINS.
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY.
- COOLER AND WETTER THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY AN ACTIVE PATTERN.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
A MUCH LESS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE BETTER PART
OF THE WEEK. AS A WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, THE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL
BEING BACK WEAK WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH A SLOW STEADY RAMP UP TOWARDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHERE A LOT OF THE CWA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW 90S AGAIN. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WEST /
DOWNSLOPE THROUGH THE WEEK KEEPING RH VALUES LOW, WITH THE LOWEST
VALUES COMING LATE WEEK WITH THE HIGHER TEMPS.
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION, WE
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE APEX OF THE FEATURE THAT WE WILL BE
IMPACTED BY WEAK VORT MAXES THAT PUSH OVER THE RIDGE. IT LOOKS
LIKE EACH DAY WE WILL SEE ONE OF THESE SMALL FEATURES PUSH UP OUT
OF THE SNAKE RIVER PLAIN INTO SW MONTANA. THIS WILL GIVE OUR
MONTANA MOUNTAINS A DECENT CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
EACH DAY THIS WEEK. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY
STRONGER LOW WHICH WILL PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
AS WELL AS SEEING SOME SHOWERS MOVE OFF INTO THE IMMEDIATE
FOOTHILLS FOR PLACES LIKE LIVINGSTON AND RED LODGE.
THURSDAY WILL SEE A DIFFERENT SETUP AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN JUST SLIGHTLY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER BC WILL EJECT A LOBE
OF ENERGY THROUGH MONTANA WHICH WILL GIVE ALL OF THE CWA A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS
ADVECTING IN MOISTURE OUT OF THE PLAINS COMBINED WITH THE LOW OF PACIFIC
ORIGINS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THERE TO BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, THAT LOW OVER OFF THE PACIFIC COAST
WILL BE PUSHED INLAND AND THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
THIS SETUP LOOKS LIKE IT MAY ALSO BRING SOME WINDS DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIN AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW, HOWEVER THE MODELED LOW
LEVEL SURFACE WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG AS OF NOW. AFTER THIS
WEEKEND'S LOW, THE LONG RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PATTERN FAIRLY
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. WMR
AVIATION
00Z TAF DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TAPER OFF AROUND 02Z,
AND SWITCH TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE MAY BE A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AROUND SUNRISE ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER, BUT
THESE WILL BE HIGH BASED SO NOT EXPECTED TO REDUCE FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. EASTERLY WINDS WILL REDUCE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS ACROSS
THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059/084 059/090 063/094 064/091 063/088 059/079 055/084
00/U 00/U 11/U 41/B 21/B 32/W 10/U
LVM 049/084 050/089 052/091 052/087 051/084 045/075 042/082
01/B 21/U 32/T 52/T 42/W 43/T 11/U
HDN 055/086 055/092 060/095 061/093 060/090 055/083 050/087
00/B 00/U 00/U 30/B 21/B 32/W 20/U
MLS 058/084 055/087 060/094 066/093 064/090 059/083 053/082
00/U 00/U 00/U 20/B 21/B 32/W 21/U
4BQ 059/084 056/088 060/093 065/093 065/090 059/085 054/084
00/B 00/U 00/U 20/B 21/B 32/W 21/U
BHK 053/083 049/086 052/091 060/093 059/091 055/085 048/083
00/U 00/U 00/U 31/B 31/B 33/T 21/U
SHR 054/083 052/087 054/092 058/091 057/087 053/083 048/084
12/T 12/T 10/U 11/B 22/T 11/U 21/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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