409
FXUS65 KBYZ 220652
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1252 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING, ESEPCAILLY NEAR BILLINGS.
- WARMER AND DRIER MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. 80S RETURN MIDWEEK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS...
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE WEEKEND, AND ANOTHER
CLEAR NIGHT WITH CALM WINDS, FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AGAIN
THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF CONCERN IS THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT SAW
DENSE FOG MONDAY MORNING. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 40S NEAR
LIVINGSTON, ALONG WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVER YNP, IT WILL
PROBABLY BE DIFFICULT TO SEE ANY FOG AT IN THE IMMEDIATE
FOOTHILLS, HOWEVER LOW STRATUS IS A POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. BACK NEAR BILLINGS, DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOW 50S
AND TEMPS ARE QUICKLY DROPPING. WHILE THE SCALE OF FOG MAY NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AND DENSE AS LAST NIGHT, IT SHOULD COVER ROUGHLY
THE SAME GEOGRAPHIC FOOTPRINT. NEARLY ALL FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW A GOOD FOG SETUP AT BILLINGS THIS MORNING, SOME EVEN SHOW A
GOOD SETUP DOWN IN SHERIDAN AS WELL.
TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE AVERAGE WITH MANY
PLACES SEEING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. TONIGHT (AFTER 00Z) A
SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH OUR
AREA. IN RECENT MODEL RUNS THIS FEATURE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN PULLED A
LITTLE BIT WESTWARDS WHICH WOULD GIVE NEARLY ALL OF OUR CWA A
CHANCE AT SOME PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A QUICK
HITTER OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH HOW FAST THE SYSTEM WILL BE
MOVING, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WIL BE OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA
BY THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. PWATS IN THE PLAINS MAY EXCEED 1"
WHICH WOULD ALLOW SOME CELLS TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH, ANY RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT
WITH THIS EVENT.
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL BE PRIMARILY DRY AS WE REMAIN JUST
WITHIN THE INFLUENCE OF THE GREAT PLAINS RIDGE. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW TEMPS TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR HIGHS WITH
LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE 50S.
THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND HAS NOTABLY CHANGED IN THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE COMING IN OFF OF THE PACIFIC IS NOW
BEING PUSHED FARTHER NORTH IN MOST MODEL RUNS. THIS WOULD BE GOOD
NEWS FOR MOST AS THAT MEANS THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF A STRONG WIND
EVENT SATURDAY WOULD BE MUCH LOWER. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER FEATURE,
SIMILAR TO THE MIDWEEK ONE ACTUALLY, THAT RIDES THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE JET UP THROUGH WY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HELP
INCREASE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IF THIS WERE TO PAN OUT. AS WE SAW
IN THE PAST DAY THOUGH, THIS FORECAST COULD STILL CHANGE QUITE A
BIT IN THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS KEEP OUR AREA IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES COMING
OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND MOVING THROUGH MONTANA. THE MAIN QUESTION
FOR NEXT WEEK'S FORECAST WILL BE WHAT HAPPENS WITH A HANDFUL OF
TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON DUJUAN WILL BE
ABSORBED INTO THE POLAR JET STREAM IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A FEW MAJOR HURRICANES THAT FORM IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OVER THE NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD ALTER THE TROPICAL BRANCH
OF THE JET AND/OR ADVECT A LOT OF MOISTURE INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.
WMR
AVIATION
06Z DISCUSSION.
AREA OF STRATUS W/ MVFR/IFR CEILINGS IN FAR SOUTHEAST MT (I.E.
CARTER/FALLON COUNTIES) WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE IS FOG POTENTIAL EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WHERE SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR, ESPECIALLY
WEST OF KMLS-K00F. CONDITIONS FAVOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED FOG
DEVELOPMENT, AND THE GREATEST POTENTIAL SEEMS TO BE EAST OF THE
FOOTHILLS. CONFIDENCE IS THUS HIGHEST AT KBIL (40% CHANCE), AND A
BIT LOWER AT KLVM & KSHR (20% CHANCE). IFR OR LOWER FLIGHT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHERE FOG DEVELOPS. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL
PREVAIL TODAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A DISTURBANCE FROM THE SW
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT,
WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 055/079 052/081 054/082 054/073 047/070 048/069
0/B 44/W 00/U 00/U 11/B 01/B 43/W
LVM 078 048/077 045/081 048/082 048/072 041/070 041/067
0/B 51/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/B 54/W
HDN 080 051/080 046/084 052/084 050/075 044/074 045/071
0/U 52/W 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 42/W
MLS 078 053/078 050/084 056/081 054/075 048/073 049/071
0/U 44/T 00/U 01/B 10/U 10/B 43/W
4BQ 077 053/077 049/081 055/080 054/076 049/075 050/072
0/U 41/B 00/U 12/W 00/U 11/B 43/W
BHK 072 048/076 047/083 051/078 051/077 045/074 047/071
0/N 65/T 00/U 02/W 10/U 10/U 54/W
SHR 078 047/076 043/081 050/081 048/078 043/075 045/071
0/U 31/U 00/U 10/B 01/U 11/U 34/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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