681
FXUS65 KBYZ 121848
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1148 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- GUSTY WINDS RETURN TO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS BY THE WEEKEND;
30-50% CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH AT LIVINGSTON.
- BECOMING COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 50S F.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
STARTING SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY AN INCREASING FOOTHILLS
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND 700 MB WINDS. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE
FOOTHILLS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE IN THE 5-10 MB RANGE AND 700
MB WINDS IN THE 30-35 KT RANGE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOR
GAP AREAS SUCH AS LIVINGSTON AND NYE AS THESE VARIABLES COMBINE TO
BRING DAILY 30-50% CHANCES FOR A WIND GUST OVER 50 MPH. THE
US-191 CORRIDOR HAS A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE FOR A WIND GUST OVER 50
MPH.
THERE ARE CONTINUED INDICATIONS THAT STARTING NEXT TUESDAY, THERE
WILL BE A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION. THERE IS GOOD ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING BEING DOMINANT OVER THE WESTERN US. WHAT IS NOT YET
CLEAR IS THE EXACT IMPACT THAT THIS CHANGE IN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WILL HAVE. WHAT IS CLEAR IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY BE ENTERING A
PERIOD OF MORE ACTIVE WEATHER. WHAT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IS
THE TIMING, LOCATION, AND PRECIPITATION TYPES THAT CAN BE
EXPECTED. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER THAN
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING UNUSUAL COLD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TORGERSON
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE WEST (GUSTS TO 25KTS) ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT KLVM THROUGH THE PERIOD. KBIL WILL SEE WSW WINDS
AROUND 10KTS PREVAIL. ALL SITES WILL REMAIN VFR. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/054 029/055 034/057 031/058 032/049 027/043 021/039
00/U 00/B 01/B 11/B 15/W 33/J 22/J
LVM 027/049 029/051 035/053 033/052 032/046 025/040 022/038
00/U 00/N 11/E 11/B 36/W 43/J 33/J
HDN 024/055 025/057 029/059 028/061 030/051 024/044 020/041
00/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 15/W 44/J 22/J
MLS 024/051 026/053 029/053 029/055 027/045 021/037 016/033
00/U 00/B 00/B 10/B 13/W 42/J 21/B
4BQ 027/054 027/055 029/057 029/059 031/054 024/044 020/041
00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 03/W 32/J 21/B
BHK 023/050 024/050 027/051 027/053 026/046 019/034 013/032
00/U 00/B 00/E 00/B 14/W 53/J 22/J
SHR 023/052 023/054 026/057 026/058 027/050 021/043 016/040
00/U 00/B 00/E 00/B 15/W 44/J 32/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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