396
FXUS65 KBYZ 111846
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1246 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH TODAY.
HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS AND ALONG THE
DAKOTAS BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE NEAR BAKER.
- COLD FRONT FRIDAY EVENING USHERS IN A COOLER AND WET SATURDAY.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TO START THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS...
THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT BROUGHT THE GUSTY
WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER THE PAST DAY HAS ALMOST
COMPLETELY EXITED THE REGION. AS THIS DEPARTS TO THE EAST, EXPECT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR. THE BREEZY
WINDS ARE ALSO LEAVING WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL. THIS AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. GUSTS IN THE 30S MPH ARE
POSSIBLE IN WIDE PRONE AREAS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT OVERALL A
GRADUAL DECREASE IN MAGNITUDE IS FORECAST. A FEW SHOWERS NEAR
BAKER CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING INTO TOMORROW WE REMAIN UNDER BROAD WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR GUSTS IN THE 30S MPH FOR LOCATIONS NEAR
HARLOWTON WITH A WEAK GAP FLOW, BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
ELSEWHERE. AS WE WILL BE BEHIND THE SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE MOST OF
THE DAY, AND THEREFORE A BROAD AREA OF SUBSIDENCE, MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. THAT NW FLOW WILL KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE THOUGH WITH MINIMAL TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION.
FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH THE BENIGN CONDITIONS OF THE PREVIOUS DAY,
HOWEVER OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE REGION
AS IT PIVOTS AROUND THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER
WESTERN ON. THIS FEATURE IS REMINISCENT OF THE ONE THAT JUST
PASSED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY BUT MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE
VORT MAX DIGGING FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST. THIS COULD THEN BE A GOOD
SETUP FOR SOME UPSLOPE PRECIP ON THE NORTHERN ASPECTS OF THE
MOUNTAINS. IF THE LOW CONTINUES TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH THEN THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME TOO WESTERLY FOR MEANINGFUL UPSLOPE IN
THESE AREAS. REGARDLES, THE FOOTHILLS NEAR RED LODGE AND ALL OF
THE BIGHORN MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS WILL SEE THE MOST PRECIP WITH THIS
QUICK HITTER OF AN EVENT. WHILE THE PRECIP WILL HAVE A SHOWER-LIKE
NATURE, THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED LIGHTNING DOES REMAIN POSSIBLE THOUGH WITH 100-200 J/KG
ML- CAPE. THE LOCATIONS MENTIONED ABOVE RECEIVING THE MOST PRECIP
SHOULD PICK AROUND 0.5-0.75" THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY.
WHILE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION, THE BEST CHANCE OF
A WETTING RAIN (AT LEAST 0.1") ARE SOUTH OF US-212 AND NEAR/WEST
OF BILLINGS. SNOW LEVELS THROUGH THE EVENT WILL BE FLUCTUATING
BETWEEN 7KFT AND 9KFT RESULTING IN ALL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OCCURING
BE ABOVE 9KFT. THIS COULD RESULT IN MINOR TO MODERATE IMPACTS TO
THE BEARTOOTH PASS SATURDAY AM, MAINLY DUE TO FALLING SNOW
REDUCING VISIBILITY. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX MAY HAVE MINOR IMPACTS
TO US-14 THROUGH THE BIGHORNS AS WELL.
LOOKING AHEAD, THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE THIS WEEKEND. ONCE THIS FEATURE
FINALLY MOVES EASTWARDS ENOUGH, THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT SOME WEAK
RIDGING COULD BUILD IN FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING. DO NOT GET TOO USED TO
THIS THOUGH, BECAUSE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD MOVE THROUGH MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK BRINING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER
WEATHER. WMR
AVIATION
IN GENERAL VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST NEAR KMLS-KBHK-K97M
THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-40KTS, HIGHEST IN THE EAST. WINDS
DECREASE INTO TONIGHT WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/077 049/064 044/070 048/077 055/086 060/084 055/083
01/U 74/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 22/T 11/U
LVM 040/074 042/061 037/068 042/074 049/082 054/081 049/079
00/U 87/T 10/U 00/U 00/N 11/N 11/U
HDN 045/076 047/065 040/070 043/075 049/084 056/081 051/081
00/U 63/W 00/U 00/B 00/B 22/W 11/U
MLS 046/073 048/064 043/071 048/074 052/080 057/078 053/078
00/U 10/B 00/U 02/W 01/B 32/W 11/U
4BQ 046/074 048/062 041/068 047/072 051/080 057/079 053/081
00/U 65/W 00/U 00/B 01/B 32/W 11/U
BHK 043/072 043/062 039/069 044/071 048/076 054/076 050/077
00/N 00/N 00/U 02/T 11/B 33/W 12/W
SHR 041/074 043/059 037/065 039/071 046/080 053/080 048/081
00/U +9/T 22/T 11/B 00/B 12/T 12/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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