031
FXUS65 KBYZ 290654
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1254 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW TODAY, WITH GUSTY WEST
WINDS. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS OVER THE
BEARTOOTH HIGHWAY.
- WIND GUSTS TODAY OF 40-55 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, AND
30-40 MPH FURTHER EAST.
- RETURN TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TUESDAY.
- INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY;
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
..THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DYNAMIC SLOW-MOVING LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED JUST
NORTH OF HAVRE ALONG THE MT/CANADA BORDER. TROWAL ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS LOW IS POTENT, AND PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL MT.
SNOW LEVELS ALONG THE MT/ID BORDER ARE NEAR 8000 FEET. EXPECT SNOW
LEVELS OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO FALL TO 8000-9000 FEET LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. REMARKABLY LOW FOR THE END OF JUNE.
SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF WY IS PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW
WEAK EMBEDDED (AND VERY ELEVATED) THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MT.
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROWAL WILL INCREASE FROM THE W-NW
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, AND WILL IMPACT
THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY. LOWER ELEVATION PRECIP WILL NOT BE
HEAVY PER DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS, BUT IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD. SPEAKING
OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS, THEY WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
OCCASIONAL 45-55 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, ESPECIALLY
THE US-191 CORRIDOR WHERE WEST WINDS ARE FAVORED. BRISK WINDS
GUSTING 30-40 MPH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. REGARDING PRECIPITATION, THE MOUNTAINS' WEST ASPECTS
WILL BE FAVORED PER THE LOCATION OF THE TROWAL. FOR 1+ INCHES OF
PRECIP THERE IS A 85% CHANCE OVER THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS AND 70%
CHANCE FOR THE ABSAROKAS. THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO SEVERAL INCHES OF
WET SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 9000 FEET. NOT A
GOOD DAY FOR RECREATION IN THE HIGH COUNTRY. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
TODAY WILL BE FAIRLY NIL BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW IN THE FAR EAST. IF WINDS TURN EASTERLY THERE COULD EVEN
BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER...BUT THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY HERE. TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S (BRRR)
ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS TO THE MID 70S IN THE EAST.
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY,
BRINGING THE PRECIP EVENT TO AN END (MOST WILL TAPER OFF BY THIS
EVENING). WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY TOMORROW BUT A DEFINITE STEP
DOWN FROM TODAY. LOOK FOR GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH, TRENDING LOWER IN
THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE FALLS ARE INDUCED TO OUR
WEST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
ISOLATED LATE DAY WEAK T-STORMS OVER THE WEST. HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY
SHOULD REBOUND TO THE 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
GENERAL TROFFING W/ BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY (W/ TEMPS IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S) WILL YIELD A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON
EACH OF THESE DAYS. ENSEMBLES AND AI MODELS SUGGEST A SMALL RISK
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, CONSISTENT WITH A CONCEPTUAL MODEL,
THOUGH BULK SHEAR MAY BE A BIT LACKING ON WEDNESDAY. IMPOSSIBLE TO
SAY WITH ANY CONFIDENCE NOW, BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, AND PLAN FOR IF YOU WILL BE OUTDOORS OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS SHOWS A FINAL WAVE DEPARTING TO THE EAST AND
RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING FLAT RIDGE NEXT WEEKEND.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW DIURNAL WEAK T-STORMS BUT OVERALL SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY LOOK LIKE MOSTLY BENIGN DAYS W/ CONTINUED SEASONABLE
TEMPS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR FAVORABLE WEATHER DURING 4TH OF
JULY FESTIVITIES ON SATURDAY.
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT WE SEE TEMPS
BACK TO THE 90S AS A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS
WE MOVE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF JULY IT WOULD SEEM TO BE TIME
FOR THIS TO HAPPEN. MILES CITY HAS ONLY SEEN 3 DAYS THIS JUNE WITH
A HIGH TEMP OF AT LEAST 85F...THE LOWEST SINCE 2014.
JKL
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING THROUGH THE EVENING. LOCALIZED
MFVR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST SHOWERS.
EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. WEST WINDS INCREASE TO WIDESPREAD 20
TO 40 KT GUSTS BY LATE THIS MORNING. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE
FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR THE MOUNTAINS, INCLUDING KRED AND
KSHR, THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 055/079 055/081 055/083 057/082 057/079 057/086
6/W 10/U 23/T 32/T 13/T 52/T 10/U
LVM 056 044/073 046/075 046/079 049/076 047/076 048/085
+/W 43/T 35/T 52/T 16/T 62/T 10/U
HDN 071 054/080 053/083 054/086 055/086 055/080 054/087
4/W 10/U 23/T 22/T 12/T 41/B 20/U
MLS 073 053/079 054/082 057/087 058/087 059/080 056/086
4/W 10/N 14/T 22/T 22/T 53/W 11/U
4BQ 074 054/080 055/082 056/087 057/087 058/078 056/086
2/W 00/U 34/T 12/T 22/T 42/T 21/U
BHK 075 049/077 051/081 053/087 055/085 055/077 052/083
5/T 10/N 14/T 23/T 43/T 64/T 21/U
SHR 071 045/078 050/080 051/084 053/083 052/075 050/085
2/W 10/U 34/T 22/T 12/T 34/T 21/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR ZONE 67.
WY...NONE.
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