856
FXUS65 KBYZ 031851
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1251 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN
MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS, HAIL, AND
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY, THE 4TH OF JULY.
- HOT CONDITIONS WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDING INTO THE DAKOTAS HAS PRODUCED ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN
MT THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING THE CONVECTION IS CONTINUING
TO SHIFT EAST. ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSIT THE AREA LATER
TODAY, SPREADING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH CONVECTION LINGERING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER. WITH MODEST
INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1500 J/KG) AND SHEAR (DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 35 KTS) IN PLACE, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR AREAS
MAINLY EAST OF BILLINGS. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS STORMS MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS AFTERNOON, FORMING INTO MORE OF A LINE
THIS EVENING OVER THE EAST, PUSHING EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS BY ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
BILLINGS AND AREAS EAST. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LARGE HAIL, STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA, SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE
STILL POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
INDEPENDENCE DAY IS FORECAST TO BE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (15%) FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, WITH ANY CONVECTION DIMINISHING BY THE EVENING. SUNDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL AS RIDGING BUILDS
OVER EASTERN MT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 80S TO THE UPPER 90S, WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER VALLEY
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY NEARING 100 DEGREES. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BRING LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, SPREADING EAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE RISK OF
A SEVERE STORM IS LOW.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND 90S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE "COOLEST" DAY
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ALONG WITH THE HEAT, A DAILY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MOISTURE (PWATS APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING AN INCH) MOVING IN UNDER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINES WITH A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE RIDGE. WHILE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY LOW, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL. ALSO,
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD CREATE A MID-LEVEL CAP AT TIMES,
WORKING TO INHIBIT CONVECTION. STP
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (<30% CHANCE) MAY IMPACT ALL
TAF SITES AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM EAST OF KLVM AFTER 21Z AND MOVE
EAST, EXITING ACROSS THE DAKOTA BORDER AROUND 06Z. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL, ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS, AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES MAY SLIGHTLY REDUCE SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY OVER FAR EASTERN (KMLS, KBHK) MONTANA THROUGH THIS
EVENING. REDUCTIONS IN SURFACE VISIBILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED. ARCHER
THUNDERSTORM TIMING
KLVM21Z-01Z
KBIL21Z-01Z
KSHR23Z-03Z
KMLS00Z-05Z
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/091 063/093 063/087 064/089 062/092 063/088 062/089
40/U 00/U 40/B 32/T 31/U 31/U 10/U
LVM 049/088 055/089 055/084 056/086 055/089 055/086 053/088
20/U 01/U 41/B 34/T 32/T 21/U 11/U
HDN 055/092 060/095 063/090 063/091 060/093 062/089 060/091
40/U 00/U 30/B 33/T 32/T 31/U 10/U
MLS 057/090 064/097 065/088 064/090 062/090 063/089 061/089
70/U 00/U 30/B 35/T 61/U 32/T 21/U
4BQ 058/090 064/098 065/090 064/091 062/090 062/089 061/090
30/U 01/U 31/B 46/T 52/T 22/T 31/U
BHK 055/087 060/096 062/086 058/087 058/086 058/087 057/087
41/U 01/U 31/B 36/T 82/T 22/T 22/T
SHR 052/089 056/094 060/088 059/090 057/089 058/088 056/090
30/U 00/U 21/B 24/T 43/T 22/T 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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