417
FXUS65 KBYZ 071413
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
813 AM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ELEVATED TO CRITICAL.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL KEEP SKIES HAZY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
AND WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE AIR QUALITY. FOR THE LATEST AIR
QUALITY, VISIT AIRNOW.GOV.
- WARM BUT TRENDING MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
UPDATE
LATEST SMOKE ANALYSIS SHOWS IMPROVING BUT STILL REDUCED AIR
QUALITY ACROSS OUR AREA. WE HAVE SEEN A PUSH OF "CLEANER" AIR WITH
LAST NIGHT'S FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE WILL
SEE A SLOW INCREASE AGAIN TODAY. HAZY SKIES FROM LOFTED SMOKE AND
PERIODS OF HIGHER SURFACE-BASED SMOKE WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. LOOK FOR HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S (COOLEST EAST). MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE EASTERLY WINDS, BUT
BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FAR WESTERN
FOOTHILLS AGAIN TODAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SATURDAY. HAVE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SMOKE COVER,
OTHERWISE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. JKL
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS...
THAT PESKY RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH AMERICA. HOT AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS
TOUCHING 100 ON SATURDAY. MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS, DUE TO THIS
RIDE, WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE WNW KEEPING THE AIR THROUGH MOST OF
THE COLUMN VERY DRY. RH VALUES ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE IN THE TEENS
TO SINGLE DIGITS EVERY DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DUE TO THE PRIMARY FLOW OF WESTERLY WINDS, WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM
THE PNW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ADVECTED INTO OUR REGION. WHILE THE
WEAK FROPAS THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY WILL HELP PUSH SURFACE SMOKE
TO THE SOUTH, THE SMOKE ALOFT WILL LINGER FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. IN ADDITION TO THE WILDFIRES IN THE PNW THERE ARE ALSO A
FEW DECENT FIRES IN WEST AND SW MONTANA WHICH WILL BRING EVEN MORE
SMOKE TO LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA. BOZEMAN AND
LIVINGSTON WERE SEEING REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND UNHEALTHY AIR
QUALITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALREADY ON
THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES WILL HAVE A HARD TIME GETTING
AS FAR WEST AS LIVINGSTON WHICH MAY NOT ALLOW FOR MUCH OF A BREAK
IN THE SMOKE.
THE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS WILL BE ALMOST THE SOLE FACTOR LIMITING
HOW HOT TEMPERATURES GET OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CLEAR SKIES AND
VERY DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE PERFECT FOR A RAPID WARM UP UNDER
THIS STRONG RIDGE BUT SMOKE THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN WILL HELP
SCATTER SOME OF THE SUN'S ENERGY. SIMPLY PUT, THE MORE SMOKE IN
THE SKY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE HARDER IT WILL BE FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP. REGARDLESS, HOT TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR
CERTAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WITH ALL THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS, NATURALLY THERE ARE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WHERE GUSTS BETWEEN 10 AND 20 MPH ARE
FORECAST. SATURDAY'S WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER DUE TO A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OVER 20 MPH ARE FORECAST
WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS TOPPING 30 MPH. THERE ARE SOME DISAGREEMENTS
ON JUST HOW STRONG THE WINDS WILL BE AND A GOOD PORTION OF THAT
COMES DOWN TO HOW HIGH THE MIXING HEIGHTS ARE ABLE TO REACH. ALL
MODELS SHOW THEM GETTING AT LEAST TO THE 700MB LAYER BUT SOME MIX
PARTS OF THE REGION UP TO 500MB. WITH HOW WARM AND DRY THE
CONDITIONS WILL BE, I AM INCLINED TO BELIEVE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
SOLUTIONS WITH MIXING HEIGHTS ABOVE 700MB, THUS B RINGING DOWN
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS.
ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND IS STIL
MINOR QUESTION, MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE RIDGE
BUILDING OVER OUR AREA FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, HAZY
SKIES, AND A POTENTIAL RETURN OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND
CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LACK OF AGREEMENT HOW THINGS SHAPE
UP FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO MID AUGUST, THERE IS A SIGNAL IN
MOST MODELS THAT THERE COULD BE SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE AND POTENTIALLY GIVES US SOME ACTIVE
WEATHER. WMR
AVIATION
SMOKE WILL FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MFVR VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY (50-70% CHANCE) FOR KLVM AND AREAS
IN THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS AND IMMEDIATE FOOTHILLS BY
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR ALL OTHER TAF SITES, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE
(10-20%) FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO MVFR BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY
SMOKE. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 061/099 063/095 062/091 062/089 062/084 059/079
0/K 00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W 33/T
LVM 095 055/097 056/093 055/092 054/090 054/085 051/080
0/K 00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 22/T
HDN 095 056/100 059/095 057/093 059/090 059/085 054/081
0/K 00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/T 43/T
MLS 090 057/097 061/093 059/090 061/087 059/083 056/079
0/K 00/K 00/B 01/U 11/U 23/T 44/T
4BQ 093 060/099 063/095 061/091 061/088 060/083 057/080
0/K 00/K 00/B 01/U 22/T 25/T 45/T
BHK 087 054/097 056/093 055/087 054/086 053/082 050/078
0/K 00/K 00/B 11/B 32/W 33/T 34/T
SHR 095 055/100 059/095 057/093 058/088 057/082 054/079
0/K 00/K 00/U 00/U 11/U 15/T 55/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONE 117.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 123>133.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 274-284.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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