753
FXUS65 KBYZ 140637
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1237 AM MDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MT AND
NORTHERN WY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND FAR SOUTHEAST MT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION, INCLUDING A CHANCE OF
VERY HEAVY LOCAL RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH MONDAY)...
HEIGHTS BUILD A BIT OVER THE REGION TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
THE CENTRAL US PIVOTS SLIGHTLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
100S, WARMEST OVER THE EAST. RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH MID WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL OVER THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH HOT TEMPERATURES PERSISTING OVER THE EAST. VERY
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT AND HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 95 TO
105 DEGREE RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND SHERIDAN
COUNTY, WY FOR WEDNESDAY. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUES
TODAY FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA, INCLUDING BILLINGS, AND
THEN EXTENDS INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE BEGINS SURGING INTO THE REGION IN EARNEST FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TODAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL AID IN MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AS WELL OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL CAUSE
UNUSUALLY HIGH PWATS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (200% OR MORE OF
NORMAL) TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S MAY BE COMMON WITH A RELATIVELY HUMID AIR
MASS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND YET AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, WHEN PWATS ARE
AT THEIR HIGHEST. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG, WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH HAIL TO A LESSER EXTENT. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE. WE HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-90 FROM LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CURRENTLY, PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA ARE MENTIONED IN
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK THROUGH MID WEEK, AND ADDITIONAL
FLASH FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED.
MONSOONAL FLOW LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH WEAK IMPULSES
PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA AT TIMES. THIS WILL BRING
MODERATE CHANCES FOR DAILY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA,
GREATEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO 90S MOST DAYS.
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLES HINT THAT THE FLOW ALOFT
COULD SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST, WHICH WOULD BRING A COOL DOWN AND
MORE WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. STP
AVIATION
ISSUED 06Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST BY THE AFTERNOON,
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORM OVER THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS AROUND
20Z AND SPREAD OVER THE PLAINS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH STORMS WILL BE
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN, WHICH
MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO MVFR/IFR. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 100 068/088 065/091 065/096 066/096 066/094 065/091
1/U 43/T 51/B 51/B 41/U 32/T 31/B
LVM 096 060/087 057/088 057/094 058/093 058/092 057/091
3/T 35/T 73/T 34/T 43/T 42/T 32/T
HDN 103 067/092 065/093 065/098 066/098 065/095 063/092
0/G 20/U 42/T 41/B 41/U 31/B 31/B
MLS 104 071/097 068/093 067/099 069/099 068/095 065/093
0/G 10/U 10/B 11/U 21/B 31/B 31/B
4BQ 104 072/098 068/093 067/098 069/098 068/094 065/091
0/G 00/U 00/U 20/U 21/B 31/B 31/B
BHK 103 069/099 066/094 063/096 065/097 064/093 061/090
0/G 00/U 00/U 11/U 12/T 31/B 21/B
SHR 103 063/093 062/090 060/096 062/095 062/092 060/090
0/G 01/U 36/T 44/T 33/T 34/T 33/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 29>31-34-42-56-57-138-139-169-170-173-235.
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 29-34-42-63-68-141-172-173-228-235.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37-58.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONE 199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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