611
FXUS65 KBYZ 232031
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
231 PM MDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND A
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE (SLIGHT CHANCE) MAINLY
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EACH DAY.
- HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY THIS WEEK. EXPECT MOUNTAIN SNOW
MELT TO INCREASE RIVER FLOWS. NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO MUCH OF THE
AREA TUESDAY INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER EACH DAY TODAY INTO MONDAY (HIGHS
IN 80S TO LOWER 90S BY MONDAY) UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. WHILE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWER
HUMIDITIES DURING THIS TIME, A FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, MAINLY NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS (UP TO A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF LIGHTNING, GREATEST MONDAY). WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, BRIEF GUSTY WINDS MAY DEVELOP, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH.
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT TO RESUME. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGHER
FLOWS ON AREA WATERWAYS. SMALLER STREAMS AND CREEKS FLOWING OUT OF
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE RISES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH LARGER RIVERS AND STREAMS FURTHER DOWNSTREAM SEEING THE
GREATEST RISES MORE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WITH THIS, NO RIVER
AND STREAM FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOR MORE
INFORMATION, VISIT WATER.NOAA.GOV.
TUESDAY INTO THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK, THE WEATHER LOOKS TO
BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS IS DUE TO A DEVELOPING CUTOFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO AND STALL OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AS AN OMEGA BLOCK SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, INCREASED INSTABILITY
AND MUCH HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT (PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEAR 1 INCH) MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER, POTENTIAL SEVERE,
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN. INCREASED CLOUD COVER BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK MAY LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL THOUGH. SNOW LEVELS
NEAR 10,000 TO 12,000 FEET MAY ALSO CAUSE SOME RAIN ON SNOW IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOW MELT. IF
THIS OCCURS, ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA WATERWAYS COULD BE OBSERVED.
HOWEVER, THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL TUESDAY THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES VERY
UNCERTAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS, DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. ARENDS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/086 053/090 057/092 059/082 056/083 056/086 056/081
10/U 00/U 00/U 35/T 42/T 22/T 35/T
LVM 044/082 047/085 050/084 048/072 047/076 048/077 047/072
10/U 01/U 14/T 78/T 64/T 35/T 56/T
HDN 045/085 048/091 054/092 058/083 056/083 055/087 054/081
00/U 00/U 00/U 24/T 32/T 22/T 45/T
MLS 046/086 050/092 060/094 064/087 059/083 058/085 056/083
00/U 00/U 00/U 14/T 33/T 22/T 33/W
4BQ 046/085 050/091 059/092 063/085 057/080 055/083 055/081
00/U 00/U 00/U 14/T 44/T 23/T 34/T
BHK 044/085 049/091 056/091 060/085 057/080 054/080 053/081
00/U 01/U 00/N 02/T 23/T 22/T 23/T
SHR 040/083 043/086 047/088 050/080 048/080 047/083 047/078
00/U 01/U 01/N 16/T 45/T 24/T 35/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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