023
FXUS65 KBYZ 140108
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
708 PM MDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MT AND
NORTHERN WY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND FAR SOUTHEAST MT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK BRINGING A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION, INCLUDING A CHANCE OF
VERY HEAVY LOCAL RAINFALL.
UPDATE
AS EXPECTED, WEAK ENERGY AND MOISTURE SLIDING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE SOUTHWEST HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS THIS EVENING. THE
CONVECTION SO FAR HAS STRUGGLED TO MAKE IT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ONTO THE FOOTHILLS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS IN NW WY DO SHOW
SOME RAIN UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTION, AND LATEST MRMS DATA SHOWS A
TENTH OR TWO OF PRECIP UNDER THE STRONGEST CORES IN THE
MOUNTAINS. SUSPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE A MIX OF WET AND DRY,
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT INTO FOOTHILL LOCATIONS THROUGH
THE EVENING. CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS. HAVE TWEAKED POPS THIS EVENING TO CURRENT
TRENDS, OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST COVERS THINGS WELL. EXPECT
GREATER COVERAGE AND WETTER THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE SURGES INTO THE REGION. STP
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH SUNDAY)...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON COMPARED TO YESTERDAYS RECORD SETTING HEAT, THANKS TO A
WEAK FRONT THAT SLID THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. READINGS IN THE
THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WILL STILL BE COMMON, AND OUR
EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. IN THE
MEANTIME, MONSOONAL FLOW IS PICKING UP OVER THE INTER-MOUNTAIN
WEST, TRACKING INTO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA. WE MAY SEE A FEW HIGH-
BASED CONVECTIVE CELLS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES (BEARTOOTHS AND
NEARBY LOCATIONS) LATE TODAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THESE MAY
PRODUCE STRONG LOCAL WIND GUSTS WITH SPOTTY RAINFALL.
THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SO
CONDITIONS TREND A LITTLE COOLER FROM WEST TO EAST HEADING INTO
MID WEEK, BUT OUR EASTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HOT
TEMPERATURES. VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE CONTINUE IN FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND
SHERIDAN COUNTY, WY EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA,
INCLUDING BILLINGS, AND THEN EXTENDS INTO WEDNESDAY FOR THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE DUE TO THE PROLONGED HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS.
IN THE MEANTIME, MOTHER NATURE WILL BE SWITCHING GEARS ON US FROM
THE DRY HEAT WE SAW SUNDAY, TO A HOT HUMID AIR MASS. MONSOONAL
FLOW WILL BRING MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR WESTERN CWA FOR
MIDWEEK. AT THE SAME TIME WE HAVE EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
TRANSPORTING UNUSUALLY HIGH MOISTURE INTO OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE RESULT IS PWATS OVER 200% OF NORMAL ACROSS OUR AREA AT
MIDWEEK. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S MAY BE COMMON
WITH A RELATIVELY HUMID AIR MASS AND TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S. MODELS SUGGEST WEAK IMPULSES IN THE MONSOONAL SOUTHWEST FLOW
TRACKING OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED AND A FEW MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL LOCALLY. WE
MAY NEED TO MONITOR STORMS CLOSELY FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AND
HEAVY RAIN IMPACTS. CURRENTLY, PORTIONS OF CENTRAL MONTANA ARE
MENTIONED IN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK (WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER) THIS WEEK STARTING TOMORROW. BT
AVIATION
ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
WIND GUSTS 40-50 KTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR KLVM UP THROUGH K6S0 AND
K3HT THROUGH 04Z. GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, DID NOT INCLUDE TS FOR KLVM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. WINDS BRIEFLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT. TS/ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 070/101 069/093 065/091 065/096 066/096 066/092 065/091
00/G 43/T 61/B 41/U 21/U 31/B 31/B
LVM 060/097 060/091 056/090 057/094 058/094 058/091 057/090
21/U 38/T 73/T 32/T 43/T 42/T 33/T
HDN 068/103 067/096 065/093 065/097 066/097 064/093 063/093
00/G 11/U 41/B 41/U 11/U 21/B 32/W
MLS 070/104 071/102 068/094 067/098 068/097 067/094 065/093
00/G 10/G 11/B 21/B 21/U 21/B 11/B
4BQ 068/104 073/101 068/094 067/097 068/096 067/093 065/091
00/G 00/G 10/U 21/B 21/B 21/B 21/B
BHK 066/103 068/102 065/093 062/095 063/094 063/092 060/090
00/G 00/G 00/U 11/B 21/B 21/B 21/B
SHR 063/103 064/097 061/091 060/095 061/095 061/091 059/090
00/G 11/U 46/T 53/T 23/T 23/T 33/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 29-34-40-42-56-63>66-141-170-172-228.
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR ZONES 29-34-42-63-68-141-172-173-228-235.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONES 30-31-57-138-139-169-173-235.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37-58.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONE 199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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