952
FXUS65 KBYZ 190853
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
253 AM MDT SUN JUL 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MARGINAL RISK LEVEL FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH
ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING BREEZY WINDS, COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
90S.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY...
500 MB TROUGHING MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
SUPPRESS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DECREASING HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION
TODAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE OFFSET BY 700 MB DOWNSLOPING FLOW
HOWEVER KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S F. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE
EXPECTED.
MONDAY WILL BRING A COUPLE COLD FRONTS WITH A WEAKER ONE IN THE
MORNING BEING ENOUGH TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES TO THE HIGH 80S TO
LOW 90S F. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
INCREASE WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20S MPH. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE
PUSHED TO THE SOUTH FROM THE 500 MB TROUGH BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS. 500 MB TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE EAST
TUESDAY ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO AREAS NEAR THE
WYOMING BORDER BRINGING 30% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S F.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE
RETURN OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S F AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED. EXTREMELY HIGH PWAT VALUES COULD BRING FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS BACK TO THE REGION WITH THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
ISSUING A RISK LEVEL 1 OF 4 FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THE
BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEK. TORGERSON
AVIATION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING WIND GUSTS TO
65 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.
POTENTIAL TS TIMING
KBIL.. 20Z-01Z
KMLS.. 20Z-02Z
KSHR.. 19Z-03Z
KLVM.. 19Z-23Z
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 098 066/092 066/090 066/092 067/091 067/099 069/099
3/T 20/U 00/B 11/B 42/T 21/U 31/U
LVM 096 057/093 057/089 057/090 058/090 058/095 059/095
1/U 10/B 01/B 24/T 65/T 23/T 42/T
HDN 099 064/093 063/091 064/094 065/092 064/101 067/101
3/T 20/U 10/B 11/B 42/T 11/G 20/G
MLS 100 065/093 063/087 064/093 067/091 067/102 071/104
0/U 20/U 00/B 10/B 23/T 11/G 31/G
4BQ 099 066/093 063/088 065/091 066/090 065/098 069/101
0/U 30/U 00/B 41/B 34/T 20/U 21/G
BHK 100 062/092 058/086 059/090 061/090 062/100 066/104
0/U 20/N 00/B 11/B 22/T 11/U 22/T
SHR 095 060/093 058/090 060/091 061/088 059/097 063/098
2/T 20/U 01/B 24/T 67/T 21/U 22/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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