473
FXUS65 KBYZ 052044
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
144 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN, WET SNOW AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW TO OUR
REGION SPREADING EAST THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- INCREASED SNOWFALL ALONG THE FOOTHILLS IS FORECAST, IN ADDITION
TO HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW.
- WARMER WITH STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD WIND FOR THE WEEKEND.
GUSTS 60+ MPH ARE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
- TURNING COOLER AND MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY INCLUDE LOWER
ELEVATION SNOW.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER TROUGH AND LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS BRINGING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO
SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THAT WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND
INTO FRIDAY. LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE REPORTS OF 2 INCHES OF
SNOWFALL AT THE JUDITH GAP MESONET. RAIN HAS BEGUN TO TRANSITION
TO SNOW AROUND LIVINGSTON AS WELL. ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
PRECIP WILL START AS RAIN BEFORE TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODELS DEPICT COLD AIR
ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES, THOUGH THE
EXTENT OF IT IS NOT VERY DEEP, 0C TO -6C AT 850MB, COOLEST IN FAR
EASTERN MT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER HILLS
AND FOOTHILLS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE
PARADISE VALLEY AND LIVINGSTON AREA, AND 11 AM FOR THE BIGHORN
CANYON, SOUTHERN BIG HORN AND ROSEBUD COUNTIES, AND SHERIDAN
COUNTY. FOR THE PARADISE VALLEY AND LIVINGSTON AREA, 1 TO 4 INCHES
OF SNOW ARE FORECAST WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER
HILLS. FOR THE SOUTHERN AREAS, UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ARE FORECAST
WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER HILLS SOUTH OF
SHERIDAN AND ALONG THE BIGHORN FOOTHILLS, AS WELL AS LAME DEER
DIVIDE AND ABERDEEN HILL. THE LATEST CROSS-SECTIONS DEPICT SURFACE
WINDS BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE MOU TONIGHT, THIS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR THE BEARTOOTH/RED LODGE FOOTHILLS. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 9 AM
FRIDAY, WITH 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW FORECAST. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. THOSE TRAVELING WITHIN
THE ADVISORIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW AND SLICK
ROADS.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS, HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST WITH 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS, UP TO A FOOT IN THE CRAZIES,
PRYORS, AND BIGHORNS. RECREATION IN THE BACKCOUNTRY WILL BECOME
DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY IN THE BEARTOOTHS. AVALANCHE DANGER WILL
ALSO INCREASE. A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11
AM FRIDAY FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM FRIDAY FOR THE BIGHORN AND PRYOR
MOUNTAINS. TRAVEL COULD BECOME VERY DIFFICULT ALONG US-14 THROUGH
BURGESS JUNCTION, PLEASE PREPARE FOR WINTRY CONDITIONS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER RIDGING MOVES INTO THE REGION
ALONG WITH SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS. A QUICK WARMUP IS FORECAST,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S ON SATURDAY AND 60S TO LOW 70S
ON SUNDAY. MORE NOTABLE WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS AND A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, THERE IS VERY HIGH
CONFIDENCE FOR WIND GUSTS OF 50+ ALONG THE US-191 CORRIDOR AND
LIVINGSTON/NYE GAPS. THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH IS ALSO
HIGH, WITH THE GREATEST PERIOD OF WINDS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. ANYONE PLANNING TO TRAVEL ON I-90 OR US-191 SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS.
ALONG WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY,
DRY AIR IS SHOWN MIXING TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS TO 30 PERCENT. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE VARIABLES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, BUT THIS MAY BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE EXPECTED
PRECIP OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS MATERIALIZES.
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES DEPICT THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN ON MONDAY,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPS AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL AS BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TAKES SHAPE. WITH THIS IN MIND, EXPECT PERIODS OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS, AND POSSIBLY SNOWFALL AT THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AS COOLER AIR ATTEMPTS TO DRIVE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA. MODEL SPREAD IS QUITE HIGH YET, SO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
THERE COULD BE LOWER ELEVATION TRAVEL IMPACTS. MATOS/BT
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
IFR CIGS AND VIS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT KMLS/KBHK OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. WHILE MODELS SHOW THIS
LEAVING SOON, IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY ACTUALLY STICK AROUND THROUGH
THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION (ROUGHLY 00Z).
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDING NEAR
KBIL/KSHR. EXPECT THESE TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
NEAR KLVM RAIN IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. ALL SITES SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE IFR VIS AND/OR CIGS
WITH THIS PRECIP. MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST AT TERMINALS
AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 12-18Z. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FULLY OBSCURED FOR THE ENTIRE
PERIOD. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/049 031/059 042/068 039/058 032/042 025/046 033/055
82/J 10/N 00/N 25/W 73/J 11/B 23/W
LVM 029/044 028/052 040/059 041/055 027/037 022/042 032/049
63/J 11/N 00/N 25/W 53/J 12/J 33/W
HDN 027/049 027/060 038/069 035/059 031/043 023/048 030/057
82/J 10/N 00/N 35/W 74/J 21/B 23/W
MLS 026/044 027/057 040/067 033/053 030/040 022/042 029/052
61/B 00/N 00/N 24/W 53/J 01/B 12/W
4BQ 028/044 028/057 040/069 036/059 031/042 024/044 030/055
42/B 00/U 00/N 13/W 64/J 11/B 12/W
BHK 022/041 023/054 037/064 029/051 027/039 017/040 024/048
32/B 00/N 00/N 13/W 64/J 11/B 12/W
SHR 025/043 022/056 030/067 033/058 026/039 017/042 024/053
64/J 10/U 00/U 14/W 76/J 31/B 12/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM MST FRIDAY FOR ZONES 56-58-66-138-169.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 64-65.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 67-68.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
ZONE 171.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
9 AM MST FRIDAY FOR ZONE 199.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
ZONE 198.
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