082
FXUS65 KBYZ 080716
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
116 AM MDT WED JUL 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN.
- TRENDING DRIER THURSDAY; A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST
AND SOUTH.
- VERY HOT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND, AND
TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY CHALLENGE ALL-TIME RECORDS. PROTECT YOURSELF
FROM THE HEAT!
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN NEAR SHERIDAN AND
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST MT SHOULD END BY 09Z EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST MT.
AS SKIES IN OUR AREA CLEAR OUT THERE COULD BE SOME LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR LOCALIZED FOG DEVELOP BEFORE SUNRISE (THE BOUNDARY LAYER
REMAINS QUITE MOIST). FOG IS NOT A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN MID-JULY.
NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND
HELP TO PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THOUGH THE AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO TREND
DRIER, PWATS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S TO BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT CAPPING, AS WAS A
LIMITING ISSUE FOR TUESDAY'S CONVECTION. SHEAR IS MARGINAL BUT
APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
HREF SHOWS MOST POTENT HELICITY TRACKS OVER SOUTHERN BIG HORN AND
SHERIDAN COUNTIES SO THIS MAY BE THE AREA TO WATCH. GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS OVERALL SEEMS TO BE OVER OUR SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT BY EVENING A TRAILING PV MAX ARRIVES FROM THE WEST
AND HELPS TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND WEAK T-STORMS IN THE EVENING.
AIR MASS DRIES FURTHER THURSDAY AND CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED AND SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. TEMPS
THURSDAY WILL BE COMPARABLE TO TODAY, I.E. SEASONABLE. HEIGHTS
BEGIN TO BUILD FRIDAY AS A TROF DEEPENS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST,
AND TEMPS WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY (HIGHS IN THE 90S). THOUGH
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY, AREA OF PV LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
GREAT BASIN MAY YIELD ISOLATED HIGH-BASED WEAK T-STORMS MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS LATE IN THE DAY.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL BRING VERY HOT WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
IS A CERTAINTY WITH THIS AIR MASS. HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD
TO NEAR 600DAM, AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 700MB
TEMPS RISING TO NEAR +18C SATURDAY AND +20C (OR A BIT WARMER)
SUNDAY. TYPICAL JULY MIXING WOULD RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE 105-110F
RANGE ON SUNDAY, WHICH MEANS WE ARE TALKING ABOUT POTENTIAL ALL-
TIME RECORDS (LISTED BELOW). THERE ARE POTENTIAL FLIES IN THE
OINTMENT, INCLUDING THE QUESTION OF LOFTED SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR
SOUTH, AND THE EFFECTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM RECENT
RAINS. ALL TOLD, THE COMBINATION OF TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND
INCREASINGLY WARM NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES (60S & 70S) WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY ELEVATE HEAT RISK CONCERNS. PLEASE PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE NEXT MONDAY & TUESDAY BUT
ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS FOR SLIGHT COOLING, FOR A COUPLE OF POSSIBLE
REASONS. THERE MAY BE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THAT FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND INTRODUCES NE WINDS, BUT MORE LIKELY
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE AS THE RIDGE BECOMES
CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION W/LIGHTNING AT SOME POINT EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
PROBLEMATIC WITH REGARD TO FIRE POTENTIAL, AS THE FINE FUELS WILL
BE BAKED THIS WEEKEND WITH THE HEAT AND SUB-10% HUMIDITIES.
BELOW ARE THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT EACH OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS:
BILLINGS 108F
LIVINGSTON 105F
MILES CITY 111F
SHERIDAN 107F
BAKER 109F
JKL
AVIATION
PATCHY FOG EAST OF BILLINGS IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF BY AROUND 15Z.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-50%) ENTER AFTER 18Z TODAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES BEING SOUTH OF BILLINGS. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE
MAIN THREATS. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN DECREASING VISIBILITY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER NORTH OF BILLINGS UNTIL AROUND 12Z THURSDAY.
TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 063/091 064/096 066/103 070/108 073/099 071/094
2/T 10/U 01/U 10/G 00/G 00/U 11/U
LVM 090 055/090 055/093 057/102 061/103 064/096 062/092
1/U 21/U 01/U 20/G 00/G 00/U 23/T
HDN 092 061/092 060/097 064/103 068/109 071/101 070/096
2/T 10/U 10/U 10/G 00/G 00/G 11/B
MLS 087 062/092 062/097 067/102 071/109 075/101 070/095
1/U 21/U 00/U 10/G 00/G 10/G 11/U
4BQ 089 062/091 061/096 067/103 071/107 075/102 070/096
2/T 23/T 31/U 10/G 00/G 00/G 11/U
BHK 084 057/089 057/093 063/101 066/106 070/100 065/093
0/U 02/T 20/U 10/G 00/G 00/U 01/B
SHR 088 057/089 057/095 061/103 066/107 069/099 067/094
5/T 22/T 21/U 10/G 00/N 00/U 13/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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