951
FXUS65 KBYZ 050658
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1258 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES TREND HOTTER TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S.
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION (10 PERCENT) OVER THE WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION BEINGS TO INCREASE A BIT NEXT WEEK.
- OCCASIONAL BREEZY WINDS COMBINED WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT TIMES LATE THIS
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LINGER OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO WYOMING
TODAY. FOR THE LATEST AIR QUALITY, VISIT AIRNOW.GOV.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S THIS
MORNING BEFORE WARMING INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THIS, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST WITH
ONLY SOME PASSING CLOUDS, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SPRINKLE AT
TIMES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE UPPER
40S AND 50S.
HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY AS THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT
BROUGHT THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THE PAST FEW DAYS IS
REPLACED BY A BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. CURRENT
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LATER IN THE DAY, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH, BRINGING BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO THE AREA.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE WINDS, HOT TEMPERATURES, AND VERY DRY
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH WIND GUSTS LIMITED TO THE TEENS
AND 20S MPH SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE HIGH END OF THIS RISK.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER HOT DAY, THOUGH FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE DECREASED A FEW DEGREES NOW THAT MODELS ARE IN A
BIT BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE THURSDAY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. CURRENT FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 90S FOR
MOST, WITH ONLY A FEW 100 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS
(MEDIUM CHANCE). DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY HAVE NOW TRENDED A BIT WARMER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 100S, WARMEST ON SATURDAY.
WHILE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE, THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN BEGINS TO GET A BIT MORE MESSY DURING THIS TIME. WITH
THIS, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10 PERCENT) OF SEEING PRECIPITATION
WITH ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. ALONG
WITH THE LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST. THEREFORE, THE COMBINATION OF WIND, HOT TEMPERATURES, AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
MONDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOOKS TO DEVELOP, THOUGH MODELS HAVE BACKED
OFF A BIT ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS PATTERN CHANGE. WITH THAT SAID,
THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. LA
SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HAZY SKIES AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEK. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AND FLATTEN, TURNING UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE WEST, MORE SMOKE MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION
AND AFFECT AIR QUALITY AND VISIBILITY. FOR THE LATEST AIR QUALITY,
VISIT AIRNOW.GOV. ARCHER
AVIATION
06Z DISCUSSION...A FEW RADAR RETURNS HAVE POPPED UP OVER SHERIDAN
COUNTY ON THE NOSE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY IS
DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS THE LLJ CONVERGENCE WEAKENS IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
ALONG WITH A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO, BUT IT SHOULD NOT IMPACT
FLIGHT CATEGORIES.
LOW TO MODERATE CONCENTRATIONS OF SMOKE REMAIN ALONG THE MT/WY
LINE TONIGHT. MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN THE SMOKE POSITION AND
CONCENTRATION THROUGH THE MORNING, INCREASING IT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS INTO THE AREA. AIR BEHIND THIS
DISTURBANCE IS CLEANER AND MAY DECREASE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS
TONIGHT. BEST LOCATIONS FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SMOKE
(5-6SM) WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (KLVM/K3HT) AND IN THE
SHERIDAN (KSHR) VICINITIES. OTHERWISE BE ALERT FOR DIMINISHED
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION.
OUTSIDE OF SMOKE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS UNDER 15KTS WILL
PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 088 057/094 059/096 063/098 065/096 064/090 064/091
0/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/B
LVM 086 050/091 053/098 057/099 057/095 056/091 055/090
0/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/U
HDN 089 052/095 056/098 059/099 062/096 060/093 061/092
0/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 21/B
MLS 087 054/093 057/095 059/095 063/094 062/089 063/090
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 086 056/093 059/098 062/097 066/095 064/091 064/090
0/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 22/T
BHK 084 053/093 054/090 057/092 059/094 058/087 058/087
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 32/T
SHR 087 052/093 054/096 058/097 060/096 059/091 059/091
0/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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