307
FXUS65 KBYZ 100852
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
252 AM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH TODAY
AND THURSDAY. HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE WEST TODAY AND EAST THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, TO AS LOW AS
7000-8000 FEET, MAY IMPACT OUTDOOR RECREATION AND TRAVEL OVER
THE BEARTOOTH HIGHWAY.
- DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPS FRIDAY.
- CANADIAN COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS ANOTHER
DOSE OF COOL AND WETTER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
- THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS VERY LOW.
UPDATE
AT 230AM, BLX RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
UNDER THE PV MAX IN SHERIDAN COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TRACK
EASTWARD THRU SOUTHEAST MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOOKING
UPSTREAM, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN NORTHERN
WA, A FEATURE THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD AND PROVIDE ASCENT AND
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT (700-500MB LAPSE RATES ANALYZED TO BE 7.5C/KM).
SO THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH GREATEST COVERAGE OVER OUR SOUTH AS HIGH RES
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING. LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF THERE IS A TROWAL AND FAIRLY
HIGH MOISTURE, AND CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A PERIOD OF
PRECIP MAINLY OVER OUR CENTRAL AND EAST (WESTERN AREAS WILL BE
LIMITED BY DOWNSLOPING BREEZY WEST WINDS). WITH THIS CONFIDENCE
HAVE RAISED POPS FROM 06-18Z THURSDAY. WINDS WILL GUST 30-45 MPH
TODAY ACROSS THE AREA...PERHAPS APPROACHING 50 MPH ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH MID LEVEL FLOW TO
SUPPORT HIGHER GUSTS THAN THAT THROUGH PURE MIXING. LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. REGARDING MOUNTAIN
SNOW, SNOW LEVELS SEEM TO BE 8000-9000' MSL AT THIS TIME. AS THE
LOBE OF ENERGY UPSTREAM MOVES THRU SOUTH CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING,
WITH 700MB TEMPS NEAR -5C, SNOW LEVELS COULD FALL TO AS LOW AS
7000 FEET OVER THE BEARTOOTH ABSAROKAS. UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OVER W-NW ASPECTS. ONE THING TO
WATCH IS IF THE MID LEVEL WINDS VEER ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO GIVE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS ABOVE RED LODGE. IF SO,
THIS WOULD BE A GREATER IMPACT TO BEARTOOTH PASS TONIGHT.
SOMETHING TO WATCH TODAY. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE CHILLY TODAY WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WEST TO NEAR 70F EAST.
JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES OVER SOUTHERN ALBERTA AND NORTHERN MONTANA
THIS MORNING, LOOK FOR THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO DIMINISH
UNTIL LATER TODAY WHEN THE LOW SLIDES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS. IN THE MEANTIME, LOOK FOR
INCREASING WESTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTS IN THE
20S AND 40S MPH WILL BE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA, WITH GUSTS
INTO THE LOW 50S MPH POSSIBLE OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS.
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, THESE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE SHIFTING EAST AND OUT OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TIMEFRAME.
THE AFOREMENTIONED INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME IN
THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 90/94 WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE REGION ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW, BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WHILE THE CHANCE IS LOW (5 TO 15
PERCENT), EMBEDDED THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AS LOW AS 7,000 FEET THIS MORNING, ALLOWING
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THURSDAY. THE
PRIMARY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. THESE SHOWERS MAY
IMPACT MOUNTAIN RECREATION AND TRAVEL AT TIMES, INCLUDING THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BEARTOOTH HIGHWAY IN THE BEARTOOTH
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHWAY 14 THROUGH THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
WHILE CONDITIONS TREND DRIER AND WARMER FRIDAY, ENSEMBLE
FORECASTS SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WAVES OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK
TO THE AREA. LA/PM
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY TODAY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS (SNOW LEVELS AROUND 8000FT AGL) WHILE LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. SHOWERS ARE
LIKELY FROM KBIL EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT, AND DURING THIS TIME THERE
IS A GREATER CHANCE OF MVFR. THE RISK OF TS IMPACTING A TAF SITE
IS LOW, THUS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAFS.
BRISK W-NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUSTS 15-25KTS
TONIGHT WILL INCREASE TO 25-40KTS FROM MID MORNING TO EVENING. ALL
TAF SITES WILL BE IMPACTED BY GUSTY WINDS TODAY.
JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067 049/075 049/079 052/065 045/066 046/074 049/082
2/T 62/W 00/U 45/T 44/T 21/B 11/B
LVM 057 039/071 041/077 043/062 037/062 038/071 041/080
5/T 40/N 00/U 36/T 44/T 12/T 11/B
HDN 069 046/074 045/080 049/066 043/066 043/072 045/080
2/T 73/W 00/U 55/T 44/T 22/W 11/B
MLS 070 047/071 046/077 050/066 045/066 045/071 047/078
1/N 95/W 00/U 33/W 23/T 12/T 11/B
4BQ 069 046/069 045/078 050/065 044/063 044/068 046/077
3/W 56/W 00/U 45/T 44/T 33/T 11/B
BHK 069 043/067 044/075 045/064 042/063 043/068 044/074
2/N 79/T 00/U 32/W 33/T 23/T 11/B
SHR 065 040/070 041/077 044/063 039/062 039/068 041/077
7/T 52/W 00/U 27/T 65/T 33/T 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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