285
FXUS65 KBYZ 130534
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1134 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT STILL HOT TO START THE WORK WEEK. EXTREME
HEAT WARNING EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN
WY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND FAR SOUTHEAST MT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A COLD FRONT IS DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WHERE A LOW LEVEL JET IS IN PLACE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
MOVE THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AFTER SUNRISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY, RELATIVE
TO YESTERDAY, BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES, WARMEST OVER THE EAST.
WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND A LITTLE COOLER HEADING INTO MID WEEK AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST, THE EASTERN AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
HOT TEMPERATURES. VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 100 TO 105 DEGRE RANGE CONTINUE IN FAR EASTERN MONTANA
AND SHERIDAN COUNTY, WY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING
CONTINUES TODAY FOR ALL AREAS, CONTINUING FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROLONGED HOT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE INTO OUR REGION
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH HINTS OF OCCASIONAL WEAK IMPULSES IN THE
MEAN FLOW. AT A MINIMUM, THIS LOOKS TO BRING AN INCREASE IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF DAILY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA, GREATEST OVER WESTERN AREAS.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG HIGH PWATS, REACHING UP TO 1.50 INCHES
IN THE AREA FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. SO ANY DECENT IMPULSE IN THE
MONSOONAL FLOW MAY RESULT IN STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
LINGER IN OUR EAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (ESPECIALLY ALONG
RIDGES) DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET AND SLOW RH RECOVERY AS THE WEAK
FRONT SLIDES OVER THE AREA. TAKE CARE NOT TO CAUSE A SPARK.
STP
AVIATION
ISSUED 0530Z. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THRU THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING, BRINGING A SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KSHR ~10Z AND KMLS ~13Z, STALLING
BEFORE IT REACHES KBHK. EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-25KT WIND
GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT. PRIOR TO THE FRONT, SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET WINDS WILL GUST 25-40KTS...AN IMPACT AT KMLS UNTIL AROUND 09Z.
THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME NE-E
WITH 15-25KT GUSTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ISOLATED HIGH-
BASED T-STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WEST, POSSIBLY IMPACTING
KLVM-K6S0-KHWQ (BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME). STORMS COULD
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 30-50KTS. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072/099 071/100 070/095 066/094 067/097 068/095 065/091
00/U 00/U 23/T 52/T 40/U 21/U 21/B
LVM 060/098 060/096 061/092 058/090 058/094 059/092 057/090
01/U 11/B 37/T 64/T 43/T 33/T 32/T
HDN 070/100 069/102 069/097 066/095 066/099 067/096 064/092
00/U 00/G 22/T 42/T 41/U 21/U 21/B
MLS 074/101 070/104 072/101 069/097 068/099 070/096 065/091
00/G 00/G 10/G 22/W 31/U 21/U 21/B
4BQ 076/101 068/104 073/102 070/096 069/099 070/096 067/090
00/G 00/G 00/G 11/B 21/U 11/U 22/T
BHK 073/102 066/103 068/101 066/095 064/096 066/095 062/089
00/G 00/G 10/G 10/B 11/U 21/U 21/B
SHR 068/098 063/102 065/099 064/094 062/097 064/094 061/090
00/U 00/G 01/U 34/T 31/B 12/T 23/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONES 29-34-40-42-56-63>66-141-170-172-228.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES
30-31-57-138-139-169-173-235.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37-58.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
129>133.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 199.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR ZONE
274.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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