665
FXUS65 KBYZ 281833
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1233 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY.
GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
- THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS
WEEKEND, WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
- BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN EMERGES MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-60% CHANCE) WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND A FEW (5-20% CHANCE) EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP. WITH THESE SHOWERS, WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED. THESE SHOWERS WILL ALSO HAVE OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN. OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF MONTANA AND MUCH OF
WYOMING, A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 60+ MPH AS THE
MAIN THREAT. ISOLATED SHOWERS (10-40% CHANCE) WILL LINGER
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY WILL SEE A SIMILAR SETUP TO TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH. THERE IS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS WYOMING AND SOUTHERN
MONTANA AS CAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND 600-1400 J/KG AND SHEAR WILL
BE AROUND 30-45 KTS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
STRONG WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN.
ON SUNDAY THE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION, EXITING EARLY
MONDAY, AND BRINGING A WIDESPREAD 40-70% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY.
BRIEF RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY MONDAY, BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW
WILL ALLOW A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY
DURING THIS TIME. BY LATE WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO
TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AND CONTINUING THE CHANCE (20-40%) OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS FALLING TO LOW 70S
TO LOW 80S. TEMPERATURES THEN WARM INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY. THEN, TEMPERATURES
TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK (LOW 80S). ARCHER
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL
HAIL. ACROSS THE FAR EAST, A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, OTHERWISE VFR
WILL PREVAIL. LOOK FOR SHOWER COVERAGE TO DECREASE TO ISOLATED
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILDFIRE
SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY AT TIMES. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/082 057/076 050/081 055/087 058/087 057/084 055/079
12/W 36/T 10/U 10/U 10/U 11/B 22/W
LVM 052/077 045/071 040/080 045/083 047/081 045/078 042/074
46/T 77/T 10/U 01/U 31/N 21/B 33/T
HDN 059/085 054/079 046/084 050/089 052/090 052/087 050/081
13/W 26/T 10/U 11/U 10/U 11/B 22/W
MLS 063/085 058/079 049/081 054/087 057/090 057/085 055/082
12/W 35/T 20/U 12/W 01/U 11/B 21/B
4BQ 063/087 059/083 051/083 056/088 058/091 058/087 056/084
22/W 34/T 20/U 13/T 10/U 11/B 21/B
BHK 060/087 055/083 047/083 050/088 053/091 055/088 052/084
32/W 55/T 30/U 13/T 21/U 21/B 21/U
SHR 056/082 051/080 044/082 050/085 051/087 049/085 048/081
25/T 23/T 00/U 11/U 00/U 11/B 12/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
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