659
FXUS65 KBYZ 260641
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1241 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S) CONTINUE
THIS WEEK.
- CHANCE SNOW/MIXED PRECIP IN FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING.
- CHANCE OF FOG (40-60%) FOR MOST LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING.
- WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A SHOT OF RAIN/MTN SNOW TO AREA THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
- MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY AT TIMES LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS AN UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION THIS MORNING, A CHANCE (20-40%)
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BECOMING
ALL SNOW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDER. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE (<20%) FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER FALLON AND
CARTER COUNTIES THROUGH SUNRISE. CURRENTLY, THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW IS NEAR BAKER, WITH A 20% CHANCE
FOR MORE THAN 0.5".
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY (40-60% CHANCE) THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY WHERE PRECIP HAS RECENTLY FALLEN AND ALONG
RIVER VALLEYS.
A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AGGRESSIVELY PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE
(30-60%) OF PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY, ALONG
WITH BREEZY WINDS OF 25-45 MPH (HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS) TUESDAY. THE SPEED OF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE, WITH THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP ENDING FOR MOST
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THE CHANCE FOR 0.25" HAS
DECREASED. THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE AT 70%, FOLLOWED BY NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY AT
40%. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PLAINS WILL SEE A LESS THAN 20%
CHANCE. AS FOR SNOW, A FEW FLAKES MAY STILL MIX IN OVER THE
PLAINS, BUT OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 2"
OF SNOW ABOVE 7,000 FT OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST ASPECTS OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. FOR THE
NORTHERN BIGHORNS, THE CHANCE FOR SNOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW,
WITH JUST A 35% CHANCE OF AROUND 1" ACCUMULATION ON WEST SLOPES.
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN
WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW OCCASIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS, BUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND BREEZY AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCHER
AVIATION
A COMBINATION OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT AREAS EAST OF KBIL UNTIL SUNRISE. AS PRECIP
ENDS, EXPECT LOW CEILINGS TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AND EVENING. FOR AREAS TO THE WEST, FOG MAY DEVELOP IN
THE RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS. IMPACTS TO KBIL, KSHR,
AND KLVM ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS
LOW (30% CHANCE) AT THIS TIME. ONCE MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS
ERODE IN THE WEST, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT,
EXPECT A PACIFIC FRONT TO BRING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING BY
LATE EVENING, RESULTING IN OBSCURATIONS OF THE CRAZY AND
BEARTOOTH ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051 036/057 034/057 031/052 032/046 030/052 034/053
0/U 32/W 00/U 00/U 01/E 11/B 22/W
LVM 051 030/049 024/051 024/052 030/050 032/053 030/052
0/U 72/W 00/U 00/B 12/W 22/W 43/W
HDN 058 033/059 028/060 026/055 028/050 027/055 030/056
0/U 35/W 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 22/W
MLS 049 032/053 031/058 029/053 029/051 031/052 032/055
1/E 06/W 00/U 00/U 01/E 22/W 22/W
4BQ 049 034/057 032/059 030/057 033/055 034/055 035/058
0/E 02/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 21/B 22/W
BHK 043 025/051 028/058 026/055 026/051 029/053 031/056
2/J 02/N 00/U 00/U 11/B 33/W 22/W
SHR 057 029/058 025/059 024/058 026/054 027/056 029/057
0/B 21/B 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 23/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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