597
FXUS65 KBYZ 052233
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
433 PM MDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY WARM AND DRY INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH A
LATE DAY COLD FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 70S F FOR THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
SATURDAY WILL SEE WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S F WITH
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP TO KICK START
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION INCREASING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR INTO THE 40-60 KT RANGE.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION INCREASING
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S F INCREASING CAPE VALUES INTO THE 1,000-2,500
J/KG RANGE NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER. A LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO
INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INCREASING LOW LEVEL ROTATION. HOWEVER,
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING PERSISTENT CAPPING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY TOMORROW EVEN IN THE MOST FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTS. THIS CAP
WILL LIKELY BE OVERCOME BY TERRAIN OR WEAK FRONTAL FORCING IN THE
WESTERN CWA BEFORE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE IN
NORTHEAST MONTANA. HOWEVER, LOCATIONS FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY AND EAST
HAVE A RISK LEVEL 1 OF 5 FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH SMALL PARTS OF
NORTHERN FALLON AND CUSTER COUNTIES HAVING A RISK LEVEL 2 OF 5.
LARGE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND MODERATE ELEVATED CAPE MEANS STRONG
WINDS (>60 MPH) AND HAIL (>1 IN) ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THIS
CONVECTION.
SUNDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFT TO THE EAST AND
CORRESPONDINGLY SHIFT THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO THE EAST.
WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
LOCATIONS IN FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA HAVE A RISK LEVEL 1 OF 5 FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WINDS (>60 MPH) AND HAIL (>1 IN).
FOR THE WORK WEEK WE WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BRINGING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THIS TIME, MOST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN
THE DAKOTAS. MONDAY WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S F ACROSS THE
REGION. A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL SET UP OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY WITH LOW 70S F IN THE WEST AND MID 80S F IN THE EAST. A
COLD FRONT LATE TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 60S AND 70S F WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TORGERSON
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
A WEAK FROPA THAT PUSHES THROUGH KBIL AROUND 08Z. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE VARIABLE WINDS AT ALL SITES BUT WINDS SHOULD STAY BELOW
12KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT KLVM. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/089 056/072 044/078 054/081 052/072 047/069 047/071
00/B 28/T 40/B 01/B 67/T 65/T 44/T
LVM 049/084 048/066 035/072 044/071 041/063 037/062 037/066
01/B 79/T 20/B 04/T 78/T 76/T 45/T
HDN 054/092 054/074 042/079 051/082 050/074 046/069 045/071
01/B 16/T 60/U 00/B 57/T 65/T 54/T
MLS 059/094 057/077 046/076 055/084 055/075 050/070 048/071
00/B 33/W 80/U 20/B 55/T 45/W 43/W
4BQ 059/098 058/080 046/078 056/087 055/075 049/069 048/069
00/B 23/T 70/U 21/B 35/T 54/T 43/T
BHK 056/093 056/081 045/075 051/085 053/075 048/069 046/068
00/N 31/B 71/U 22/T 45/T 45/T 44/W
SHR 050/095 052/076 040/080 049/083 048/073 042/067 041/068
01/B 17/T 60/U 11/B 47/T 66/T 54/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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