959
FXUS65 KBYZ 140002
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
602 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS (MAINLY LIGHT) THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, POSSIBLY STRONG.
- COLD FRONT BRINGS BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT. BRISK WEST
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY; WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH,
STRONGEST FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON AND NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN WA AND TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN US HAS PUT THE AREA UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING TODAY. BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS (WIND GUSTS TO 20-45 MPH) WERE FOUND OVER EASTERN
AREAS, WHILE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS (25-50 MPH) WERE FOUND OVER
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE PARADISE VALLEY. AS
THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE FRONT, THOUGH IN GENERAL, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOOK TO
REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS, THOUGH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THERE
REMAINS IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF DECENT CAPE AND SHEAR IN OUR
SOUTHEAST CORNER (CARTER COUNTY) AS THETA-E STREAMS NORTH INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED, BUT WE COULD SEE
A STRONG STORM OR TWO IN THAT AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT, AND LATEST CAMS DO SHOW A HELICITY TRACK OR TWO.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-40 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH
SHOWERS POTENTIALLY AIDING SOME MIX DOWN WINDS BRINGING LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS IN PLACES WITH THE FRONT (RED LODGE AND SHERIDAN).
BEHIND THE FRONT, MONDAY WILL FEATURE DRY, COOLER AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S OVER THE WEST TO THE
LOWER 70S EAST. WIDESPREAD WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED, WITH THE GREATEST WIND GUSTS ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS AND OUT EAST NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER. LOCATIONS FROM BIG
TIMBER NORTH TO JUDITH GAP HAVE ROUGHLY A 40-70% CHANCE AT SEEING
WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR GREATER, WITH SIMILAR PROBABILITIES NEAR
THE DAKOTAS BORDER. IF WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND HIGHER FOR THE FAR
EAST, A WIND HIGHLITE MAY BE NEEDED, BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
AS WINDS DROP AND SKIES CLEAR OUT MONDAY NIGHT, FROST IS POSSIBLE
(20-40% CHANCE) FOR SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND 40S.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG NW TO CYCLONIC FLOW WILL LINGER BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW, KEEPING TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER THAN
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK. OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES MAY BRING A CHANCE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE AREA AT TIMES, TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND
LATE WEEK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK, WITH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT, THOUGH THIS IS SEVERAL DAYS OUT.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 60S TO LOWER 70S
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ARE
PROGGED FOR THURSDAY, WITH A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES (LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S) HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. WE
MAY SEE LOWS IN THE 30S FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
LOWS OTHER NIGHTS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S THIS WEEK. STP
AVIATION
BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH ANY
CONVECTION ARE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONT AND WESTERLY GUSTS OF 25 TO
45 KNOTS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD THROUGH MONDAY. THE STRONGEST
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF KBIL AND IN
SOUTHEAST MT.
MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/068 043/071 047/068 047/076 053/074 050/073 050/075
52/W 00/U 00/U 01/U 44/W 42/W 21/B
LVM 041/064 035/070 039/068 041/076 045/073 043/073 043/073
72/W 00/U 00/U 01/U 45/W 32/W 21/B
HDN 046/070 039/074 042/071 042/079 048/075 045/075 043/076
82/W 00/U 00/U 01/U 45/T 42/W 21/B
MLS 050/068 045/070 050/072 046/078 054/076 049/073 049/075
56/W 00/U 10/U 01/U 35/T 53/W 31/B
4BQ 053/071 044/073 052/075 048/079 054/076 049/073 048/076
32/W 00/U 10/U 02/W 45/W 54/W 21/U
BHK 050/069 040/069 044/075 042/078 049/077 045/073 044/075
65/W 00/B 31/B 02/W 46/T 53/W 21/B
SHR 047/071 038/074 044/070 043/077 048/074 043/072 042/075
42/W 00/U 00/U 12/W 46/W 44/W 22/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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