414
FXUS65 KBYZ 021940
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
140 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE, MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN
MONTANA.
- AFTER A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY, THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM RETURNS
THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE, MAINLY OVER
EASTERN MONTANA.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS REACHING
THE 90S BY SATURDAY.
- MORE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE WEEKEND, COLD FRONT BY SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
SHORT TERM FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY THE BROAD UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER NC MONTANA THIS MORNING. ENERGY WRAPPING AROUND
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS OVER A GOOD
PORTION OF THE TREASURE STATE, WHILE THE DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW PULL PLAINS MOISTURE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SHEAR TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO PIVOT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND FINALLY SHIFTING
NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF TODAY
AND TOMORROW. THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES (FALLON/CARTER) FROM
AROUND 2PM THROUGH 6PM. STORMS THAT DO FORM COULD QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE IN THIS AREA BUT WILL FAIRLY QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE
DAKOTAS. HREF IS ALSO SHOWING A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING
EARLY EVENING OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS, MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
SE MONTANA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT ALONG AN AXIS OF FAVORABLE MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY. MODELS AREA HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH THIS CLUSTER THROUGH THE EVENING SO
SOMETHING WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON.
AREA GETS ON THE DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SIDE OF THE SLOWLY
EXITING UPPER LOW TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING A QUIETER DAY
CONVECTION WISE, BUT STILL BE LOOKING AT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH RESIDUAL SURFACE MOISTURE COMBINING
WITH INSTABILITY FROM THE LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT. CAN'T RULE OUT A
WEAK THUNDERSTORM MIXED IN BUT STRONG STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
UPPER LOW MOVES WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA BY THURSDAY, BUT ITS
RESIDUAL IMPACTS CONTINUE. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUES GUSTY AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS FLOW WILL ADVECT IN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL PLAINS MOISTURE.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AXIS ALONG
WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE CROSSING ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE FORCING
FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION FOR AREAS
FROM BILLINGS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY.
UPPER LOW AND ITS INFLUENCES ARE FINALLY OUT OF OUR FORECAST BY
FRIDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA. A STRONG PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE FOR THE PACNW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND
OUR AREA WILL COME UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
PERIOD OF ENERGY PUSHING OVER THE AREA ON THIS FLOW. THIS PATTERN
IS A FAVORABLE ONE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO MOVE LOW LEVEL PLAINS MOISTURE DEEP INTO OUR AREA
UNDER A STRONGLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOMETHING TO KEEP IN MIND IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WEEK TRENDS FROM THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY TO POTENTIALLY THE MID 90S FOR SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE
SATURDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING EARLY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
FAR SE MONTANA FROM AROUND 20Z-00Z TODAY, WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
FAST THEN QUICKLY MOVING EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. ALL FORMS OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE SE MONTANA STORMS. A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG IT. LOCAL MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY PRECIPITATION AREAS. UPSLOPE
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
AS WINDS TURN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. LOCAL
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.
CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/076 052/077 051/084 055/092 056/077 050/083 055/092
21/U 15/T 40/U 01/U 12/T 21/B 21/U
LVM 041/077 046/073 044/083 048/087 047/072 042/078 047/087
11/U 27/T 10/U 01/U 24/T 32/T 12/T
HDN 045/077 049/079 049/084 053/093 054/077 048/083 053/093
21/U 15/T 40/U 00/U 12/T 31/B 21/U
MLS 048/074 048/078 051/081 056/092 058/078 051/081 056/093
41/B 15/T 51/U 00/U 21/B 31/B 31/U
4BQ 049/073 050/078 051/080 055/093 059/079 052/081 057/092
50/U 27/T 61/U 00/U 11/B 31/B 21/U
BHK 046/072 045/076 048/078 051/088 056/080 049/080 053/089
71/B 05/T 72/W 00/N 11/B 41/B 21/B
SHR 043/075 045/077 045/081 048/091 050/077 046/081 049/091
31/U 16/T 41/U 00/U 12/T 53/T 21/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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