865
FXUS65 KBYZ 121129
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
529 AM MDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF EARLY THIS MORNING; A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS, MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS & FOOTHILLS.
- GOOD CHANCE OF A FREEZE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
- SCATTERED RAIN & SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TUESDAY
& WEDNESDAY; TEMPS TRENDING WARMER.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WARMER & DRIER WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
SNOW HAS TAPERED OFF OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING, THEREFORE THE
WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL
AREAS. THERE WILL STILL BE A LIGHT MIX OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING AND ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THAT
SAID THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH OF AN IMPACT. WITH NEAR
SATURATED LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECT FOG AND LOW
STRATUS TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME VERY
LIGHT DRIZZLE/FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN COLD TODAY AS THE STRATUS CLOUD DECK IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
INTO TOMORROW. REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. CHAMBERS
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
SHORTWAVE WHICH EVOLVED OUT OF REMNANTS OF HURRICANE RACHEL WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING, AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF ACCORDINGLY FROM SW TO NE. AT THE SAME TIME, AS SURFACE TROF
SHIFTS EAST, A PERIOD OF BREEZY NW WINDS WILL SURGE ACROSS THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA, WITH HIGHEST GUSTS (30-40 MPH) EXPECTED AT
SHERIDAN ALONG THE FAVORED EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BIGHORNS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE THRU THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY EKE INTO THE
FAR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON PER SOME INSTABILITY AND BACKING MID
LEVEL WINDS AS THE CUT OFF LOW REMAINS OVER THE GREAT BASIN.
TONIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF A FREEZE AND POSSIBLE
FOG OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, THOUGH THESE ITEMS WILL DEPEND ON AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS.
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, EVENTUALLY REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY. PROXIMITY TO THE LOW RESULTS IN A CHANCE (20-40%) OF
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND
PERHAPS INTO FAR SOUTHEAST MT TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED TRACKING THE LOW A BIT FURTHER NORTH SO CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS HAS INCREASED SOME. EXPECT SNOW LEVELS TO WAVER BETWEEN
6-9KFT DURING THIS TIME, SO LOWER ELEVATIONS SHOULD SEE JUST RAIN
SHOWERS WHILE THE MOUNTAINS SEE SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS. MOST OF THE CWA
WILL REMAIN DRY TUESDAY TO THURSDAY, WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE
50S TO NEAR 60F.
CANADIAN CLIPPER DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY, BUT IT
IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO BE A DRY FEATURE, WITH IMPACTS BEING
SOME COOLING AND BREEZY NW WINDS OVER THE EAST. THAT SAID,
ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW A 1035+MB SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER EASTERN
MT AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS THURSDAY NIGHT. EASTERN PARTS MAY SEE
THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A HARD FREEZE
POSSIBLE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR A BUILDING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND
WARMER/DRIER WEATHER (WITH BREEZY DOWNSLOPE WINDS) FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE WEEKEND.
JKL
AVIATION
12Z TAF AND AVIATION DISCUSSION...PRECIPITATION HAS TAPERED OFF
OVER THE AREA LEAVING LOW STRATUS, AREAS OF FOG, AND VERY LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION (RA/SN) OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. THERE MAY
BE A FEW BREAKS IN THE STRATUS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, BUT
THOSE SHOULD BE BRIEF AS MODELS MAINTAIN AN MVFR OR LOWER CEILING
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WORKING ON THIS
LOW LEVEL SATURATED LAYER MAY SQUEEZE OUT ADDITIONAL LIGHT
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY (10-30% CHANCE). NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
GUSTY THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL ZONES AT SUNRISE, BUT THESE WILL
DIMINISH BY MID MORNING WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING COMMON
CENTRAL AND WEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY OVER EASTERN
AREAS. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A MORE ROBUST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH RECENT
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BRING LOWERING CEILINGS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BECOMING COMMON. KSHR
HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TONIGHT, WHILE KBIL AND
KMLS HAVE THE BEST FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 044 030/052 030/059 038/057 033/067 045/071 044/069
2/O 20/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 040 023/049 022/054 027/056 027/069 033/071 035/070
2/O 10/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 045 029/053 029/060 034/058 029/069 033/074 037/070
2/R 21/E 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 045 032/052 031/057 037/055 030/065 037/071 042/068
6/R 11/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 047 032/051 034/058 039/055 030/066 040/074 043/070
3/R 44/W 11/B 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 047 029/053 028/060 032/056 025/063 035/073 040/071
9/R 11/E 00/U 10/N 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 046 028/051 029/057 034/057 027/068 033/074 037/071
3/O 74/W 41/B 30/N 00/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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