873
FXUS65 KBYZ 080843
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
243 AM MDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMING TREND EXTENDS INTO THE WEEKEND. RECORD TEMPS ARE
POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES.
- EXPECT RISES ON RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY
INTO FRIDAY. A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS SUNDAY AND
INCREASES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPS AND CLOUDY/RAINY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
OVERALL, WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM, AS HEIGHTS BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S TO LOWER 80S TODAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE REGION WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS, BUT AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE STRONG, WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. LINGERING ENERGY WILL KEEP A
SMALL CHANCE (30% OR LESS) OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS ON FRIDAY. STP
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
AROUND 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL (HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90)
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RECORD HIGHS FOR BILLINGS ARE 88 DEGREES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WHICH WE COULD APPROACH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HIGHS EXCEEDING 90 WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR RIVER
VALLEYS, WITH A 50-75% CHANCE SATURDAY AND A 35-55% CHANCE SUNDAY.
BY LATE SATURDAY, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ENTER THE REGION.
COUPLED WITH SOME INSTABILITY, THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
NORTH AND WEST OF BILLINGS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING. THEN, LATE SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
ENTER THE REGION, BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THERE IS STILL DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
MODELS ON HOW ORGANIZED THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AND HOW QUICKLY IT
WILL MOVE EAST. CURRENTLY, THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
REGION BY LATE TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY, INCREASING THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO 40-70% BY TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO DECREASE WITH THIS SYSTEM, DROPPING FROM 70S TO
80S MONDAY TO 50S BY WEDNESDAY.
DUE TO THE VERY WARM CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MOUNTAINS, SNOW MELT IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE. THIS WILL PRODUCE RISING WATER LEVELS ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS ACROSS THE AREA, BUT MAINLY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS. THOSE
WITH PROPERTY OR RECREATION PLANS ON WATERWAYS THIS WEEKEND SHOULD
BE CAUTIOUS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, INCREASED
FLOWS CAN STILL BE DANGEROUS DUE TO BANK EROSION, DEBRIS, AND THE
COLD WATER. ARCHER
AVIATION
IN GENERAL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING ANY OF THE TAF SITES IS AROUND 30%. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 079 049/079 053/087 059/084 057/080 049/065 045/058
3/T 40/U 00/U 12/T 34/T 55/W 66/W
LVM 075 044/077 049/084 053/077 049/070 041/057 038/056
3/T 31/U 01/N 24/T 45/T 57/W 66/W
HDN 080 048/081 050/088 055/087 054/083 048/067 044/057
2/T 30/U 00/U 13/T 34/T 55/W 66/W
MLS 081 051/079 053/090 056/088 056/084 051/070 046/057
2/T 31/U 00/U 12/W 43/W 43/W 56/W
4BQ 079 051/078 052/086 058/088 058/085 052/070 045/055
2/T 21/U 00/U 01/U 22/W 32/W 56/W
BHK 080 048/077 050/088 056/089 054/086 050/072 043/058
2/T 30/B 00/U 00/U 31/B 32/W 55/W
SHR 076 045/075 046/084 050/085 053/082 046/066 039/054
2/T 32/T 00/U 02/W 23/T 35/T 67/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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