235
FXUS65 KBYZ 290909
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
209 AM MST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST INTO FRIDAY; LOCAL
ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER.
- LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY;
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
- DRY WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES HAS LEFT OUR REGION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WAS MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. THE NORTH FACING
SLOPES OF THE BIGHORNS AND PRYORS ARE LIT UP THE MOST ON RADAR AT
THIS TIME. PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PARADISE VALLEY AND
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS WAS PRODUCING BRISK WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
WESTERN GAPS AND FOOTHILLS.
MODEL TRENDS...WEAK ENERGY IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED TO PRODUCE AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES, MAINLY THE COUNTIES ALONG THE
DAKOTA BORDER, THROUGH TODAY. SOME EASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES TONIGHT (THU NITE) INTO FRIDAY MAY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ALONG THE DAKOTA BORDER, BUT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING MOST OF THIS FURTHER EAST IN
THE DAKOTAS. AS A RESULT, NBM PROBABILITIES OF ANY MORE THAN AN
INCH OF SNOW HAVE DROPPED QUITE A BIT FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS BAKER,
MILES CITY AND EKALAKA WITH ONLY ABOUT 20% CHANCE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME OF THE HIGHER HILLS MAY STILL SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOWFALL.
OTHERWISE, MODEL ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER ANALYSIS ALL CONTINUE TO
POINT TO A PERIOD OF WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS, AS THE WESTERN CONUS IS DOMINATED BY STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THERE
WILL BE A FEW WEAK PACIFIC WAVES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
(SATURDAY & MONDAY)...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
EVENTS. TEMPS IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL BE COMMON TODAY AND FRIDAY,
WITH 20S TO 30S ALONG THE DAKOTA BORDER. HIGHS INTO THE 50S ARE
LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND, AND CANNOT RULE OUT 60F+ NEXT WEEK. THERE
ARE SIGNS OF A POTENTIAL COOL DOWN IN THE SECOND WEEK OF FEBRUARY,
BUT FOR NOW THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AT TIMES
IN THE FOOTHILLS AND NEARBY PLAINS. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR AN
INCREASING THREAT OF GRASS FIRES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
LIVINGSTON HAS RECEIVED ONLY 0.01" OF PRECIP THUS FAR IN JANUARY.
IMPACTS...EXPECT 35-45 MPH GUSTS FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER
AND PERHAPS HARLOWTON THROUGH THE MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS ONLY
A 30% CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH. AS PREVIOUSLY ALLUDED TO,
THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS MAINLY OVER THE EAST PLAINS AND
NORTH FACING PRYORS/BIGHORNS THROUGH TODAY. ROADS MAY DEVELOP
SNOW PACKED AND SLICK SPOTS HERE AND THERE...BUT IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL.
SATURDAY'S PACIFIC WAVE WILL BE RELATIVELY WARM IN NATURE. THUS,
LOOK FOR ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR EAST.
MONDAY'S WAVE IS PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AND UNSTABLE.
AT THIS TIME, WE ANTICIPATE A QUICK MOVING FRONT WITH SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS HITTING PRIMARILY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS SOUTH OF
BILLINGS. BT
AVIATION
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT
(KMLS) THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED WITH ANY SNOW SHOWERS. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050 030/049 037/056 030/054 035/053 030/048 029/052
1/B 10/B 10/B 00/B 00/B 11/B 10/B
LVM 044 029/047 035/051 032/053 033/047 028/044 027/050
0/N 00/B 00/N 00/B 01/B 11/B 10/B
HDN 049 030/050 033/056 026/054 030/053 028/048 025/052
1/B 11/B 20/B 00/B 01/E 11/B 10/B
MLS 036 018/035 025/048 024/045 026/046 026/040 022/045
4/S 11/B 33/O 00/B 00/B 11/B 00/B
4BQ 040 024/039 026/049 027/049 028/049 028/042 025/046
4/S 11/B 22/O 00/B 00/E 11/B 10/B
BHK 028 010/023 014/041 022/038 020/039 020/036 018/040
6/S 21/E 35/O 00/B 00/E 11/B 00/B
SHR 043 025/046 027/051 025/053 028/050 025/043 022/048
2/S 11/B 21/B 00/B 01/B 22/W 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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