429
FXUS65 KBYZ 271646
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
946 AM MST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE (20-40%) TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
- LOCALIZED DENSE FOG / FREEZING FOG OCCURRING THIS MORNING IN
EASTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING.
- POST-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL COULD BE IMPACTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
AS THE ENTIRE AREA CAN EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD 2-5 INCHES OF
SNOW. BE PREPARED FOR HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH A 20-50%
CHANCE OF SEEING MORNING LOWS AT OR BELOW ZERO SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
WEAK LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND A BAND OF RELATIVELY HIGHER LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE BIGHORNS AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA. OUTSIDE OF BRIEF POCKETS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY, LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
YOUR THANKSGIVING DAY IS QUITE LITERALLY THE CALM BEFORE THE
(WINTER) STORM. BRIEF RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE AREA, AND
TEMPERATES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THAT ALL
CHANGES TONIGHT WITH THE ONCOMING PATTERN CHANGE.
THIS WEEKEND'S SYSTEM WILL COME THROUGH IN TWO PARTS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES EASTERN MT, PROMINENT FRONTOGENESIS WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PRODUCE PERSISTENT SNOW FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH WHERE THE
PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL IMMEDIATELY AS SNOW AND SAY THAT WAY
THROUGH THE EVENT. AFTER THIS STARTS TO OCCUR FRIDAY MORNING, THE
SECOND PART OF THE SNOWFALL WILL BE MORE TERRAIN-DRIVE VIA
UPSLOPING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA. WHAT COULD CHANGE AMOUNTS
DRASTICALLY IS HOW MUCH OF A NORTHEAST FLOW WE GET INTO THE AREA
(WHICH WOULD PROMOTE SNOW AMOUNTS) VS A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW
THAT IS LESS SO. REGARDLESS, DESPITE THE FRONTOGENESIS FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MT, THERE IS A LACKING OF SYNOPTIC, DYNAMIC FORCING
TO ASSIST IN THE SNOW POTENTIAL, BUT A STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE
WITH THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW ANY SMALLER SCALE, LOCALIZED FORCING TO
EASILY PRODUCE SNOWFALL. ALL SNOW LOOKS TO MAKE A SWIFT EXIT FROM
MONTANA SATURDAY MORNING.
AS OF NOW, MUCH OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM
1 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW (VIA 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE AMOUNTS),
WITH HIGHER- END AMOUNTS MORE LIKELY ON NORTH- FACING HILLS AND
SLOPES. SOUTHEAST MT CONTAINS THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS, BUT THE RANGE IS STILL HIGH, ESPECIALLY AROUND
CUSTER COUNT WHO COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 1-7 INCHES OF SNOW. THE
OTHER IMPACT TO NOTE OF IS THE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES COMING IN
WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALL OF SOUTHERN MONTANA HAS A LOW TO MEDIUM
CHANCE OF OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING BELOW 0. SOUTH-CENTRAL (MAINLY
PARK AND WHEATLAND COUNTIES) WILL SEE THEIR COLDEST NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT, WHILE THE REST OF SOUTHERN MT WILL SEE IT OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT. BE PREPARED FOR POST-THANKSGIVING TRAVEL TO BE IMPACTED BY
THIS SYSTEM.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL SE A GRADUAL WARMUP TO BRING
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES (UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY
WEDNESDAY). THERE IS A SIGN FOR SOME BREEZY GAP WINDS TO OCCUR IN
THE LIVINGSTON VICINITY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF PRECIPITATION MID-WEEK.
VERTZ
AVIATION
LOCALIZED FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THIS MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF A KBIL TO KSHR LINE. IFR TO
LOCALIZED LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, INCLUDING KMLS TO KBHK.
LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
TONIGHT, SPREADING SOUTH ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY ON FRIDAY, BRINGING MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 038 027/031 010/021 003/023 011/033 024/038 024/035
1/E 39/S 81/B 00/B 00/B 14/W 42/J
LVM 043 026/036 005/027 008/030 013/037 025/039 023/036
2/W 39/O 60/B 01/B 00/B 35/J 42/J
HDN 041 024/033 011/022 902/022 004/035 018/040 021/035
1/E 49/S 92/J 00/B 00/B 25/W 53/J
MLS 031 024/029 011/017 904/014 002/026 014/035 016/030
0/E 67/S 91/E 00/B 00/B 13/J 32/J
4BQ 037 024/035 013/020 003/021 009/032 019/039 021/031
1/E 24/S 92/J 00/B 00/B 13/W 32/J
BHK 029 017/025 008/017 906/016 001/025 012/035 013/028
0/E 48/S 91/E 00/B 00/B 12/J 31/E
SHR 041 019/036 006/022 000/026 006/036 017/043 019/035
1/E 15/O 92/J 00/B 11/B 14/W 53/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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