291
FXUS65 KBYZ 180813
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
213 AM MDT MON MAY 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FROST/FREEZE THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING, COLDEST TUESDAY
MORNING. MAKE SURE TO PROTECT SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
- COOLER AND BREEZY WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY.
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS (AN INCH OR LESS) OVER THE FOOTHILLS
THIS MORNING. MINOR IMPACTS TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW TODAY. RECREATION
COULD BE IMPACTED BY WINTER CONDITIONS.
- ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
UPDATE
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
BEARTOOTH AND RED LODGE FOOTHILLS, AS IMPACTFUL SNOW IS NO LONGER
EXPECTED. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. STP
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
TODAY WILL BE COOL, BREEZY, AND UNSETTLED UNDER THE INFLUENCE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH THIS, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
40S TO LOWER 50S WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS AND
20S MPH FOR MOST, WITH OCCASIONAL 30S MPH NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. WHILE THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE (15 PERCENT OR
GREATER) OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THE BEST
CHANCE OF MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH NEAR THE
MONTANA-WYOMING STATE LINE. WITH THIS, SNOW LEVELS WILL BE LOW
ENOUGH TO FAVOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX, WITH MOSTLY SNOW DURING THE
MORNING HOURS OVER THE FOOTHILLS. THIS MAY LEAD TO MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE ALONG THE BEARTOOTH AND RED LODGE
FOOTHILLS AND THE SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER, ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
UP TO AN INCH MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. SLICK ROADS COULD ALSO
DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS. WITH THAT SAID, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BEARTOOTH AND RED LODGE FOOTHILLS TO ACCOMMODATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL, POTENTIALLY MORE ROBUST SNOW SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END
LATE TODAY, LINGERING THE LONGEST OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA. A
STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY EVEN LINGER INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
OVER FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES (UP TO A 15 PERCENT CHANCE).
TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S.
WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT,
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WEST OF
BILLINGS DURING THE AFTERNOON (10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE).
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION RETURNS AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS COLD FRONT, EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY, LOOKS TO BRING DECENT
FRONTOGENESIS THAT COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION. WITH THIS, THE CHANCE OF SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION
IS CURRENTLY 40 TO 80 PERCENT, GREATEST OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING WHERE UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT LOOKS TO BE
IN PLAY. THE ONE POTENTIAL ISSUE TO WATCH IS THAT MODELS ARE
STARTING TO SHOW THE SYSTEM MAY SPLIT. IF THIS HAPPENS, THE BEST
ENERGY COULD DIVE SOUTH AND LIMIT THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL OVER
OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME THOUGH, MODELS CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH
FRONTOGENESIS AND UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO FAVOR PRECIPITATION. AS
FAR AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE GOES, PRECIPITATION WOULD MOSTLY BE
RAIN FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 7000 FEET.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED TO WARM BACK INTO UPPER 70S AND 80S THIS WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES MAY TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER (MORE IN THE 70S) AS
POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ARE PICKED UP IN THE MODELS. ARENDS
AVIATION
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO OBSCURE THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES TODAY.
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AT
TIMES AS WELL (KLVM AND KSHR), WITH ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
PLAINS. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHOWERS, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS OVERSPREADING THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIFTING CEILINGS AND
DECREASING SHOWER COVERAGE. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050 029/067 043/071 043/063 042/071 045/079 050/084
2/W 10/U 01/B 75/T 11/B 00/B 01/B
LVM 048 025/062 036/065 036/061 036/068 040/076 044/080
4/W 10/B 02/W 85/T 12/T 11/B 11/N
HDN 050 026/067 037/073 041/064 039/072 042/079 047/083
2/W 10/U 01/B 65/T 22/T 10/B 01/B
MLS 048 030/064 040/073 043/065 041/071 043/078 048/082
2/W 20/U 01/B 44/W 11/B 10/B 11/B
4BQ 045 029/062 038/072 043/062 040/068 043/076 048/081
5/W 20/U 00/U 26/W 22/W 10/B 01/B
BHK 046 029/059 035/072 039/064 038/068 042/075 046/081
4/W 20/B 01/B 34/W 32/W 21/B 11/B
SHR 043 024/060 031/067 036/058 033/067 036/075 040/080
8/W 10/U 01/U 47/T 23/T 11/B 01/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR
ZONE 171.
WY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR
ZONE 198.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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