552
FXUS65 KBYZ 160433
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1033 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY WEST OF BILLINGS. THE MAIN
THREATS ARE HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND LARGE HAIL.
- ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND; DAILY CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE WEEKEND, IN THE 90S
TO NEAR 100.
UPDATE
THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED, AND HAVE
CANCELLED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. JKL
DISCUSSION
THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES, IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE REGION, WITH PWATS AROUND 140-180% OF
NORMAL INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT, DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (40-60% CHANCE) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN. WITH THE CONTINUED HIGH
MOISTURE, WPC CONTINUES TO HAVE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THAT MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING OVER MUCH OF
THE WEST EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2
OF 5) OVER PORTIONS OF MONTANA MAINLY FROM LIVINGSTON WEST AND
NORTH. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAIN, LARGE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR
SIZE AND STRONG WINDS UP TO 65 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
SEVERE STORMS.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL SEE (COMPARATIVELY) DRIER AIR OVER THE
REGION, WITH PWATS NEAR NORMAL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO AROUND
130% OF NORMAL ALONG THE WYOMING BORDER. THIS WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. BY TUESDAY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE IN AGAIN,
RESUMING AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
(40-60%).
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WILL SEE THE RIDGE BRIEFLY SHIFT NORTH, INCREASING
HIGHS TO 90S TO NEAR 100 FOR THE WEEKEND. THEN, THE RIDGE FLATTENS
SOME AND SHIFTS BACK SOUTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR NORMAL, IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S.
ARCHER
AVIATION
ISOLATED LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, OTHERWISE THE RISK OF STRONG STORMS HAS ENDED FOR
TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/091 065/095 066/097 066/095 065/091 064/085 062/085
11/U 41/B 53/T 51/U 11/U 33/T 53/T
LVM 056/089 057/092 058/095 057/094 057/089 056/082 054/084
13/T 44/T 54/T 51/U 12/T 45/T 54/T
HDN 063/093 064/097 066/098 065/096 063/092 062/087 061/086
31/U 51/U 52/T 41/B 11/B 33/W 53/T
MLS 067/095 067/097 069/101 069/099 065/092 063/086 062/086
11/U 32/W 31/G 32/W 10/U 12/W 42/W
4BQ 067/093 066/097 069/100 068/096 065/090 063/084 061/084
01/U 21/B 32/T 52/T 11/U 23/W 44/W
BHK 064/094 062/094 063/097 065/098 060/089 057/083 057/083
00/U 11/B 32/T 52/T 11/U 11/B 32/T
SHR 061/090 060/094 061/096 062/094 059/089 058/084 057/083
35/T 54/T 34/T 55/T 43/T 46/T 55/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 32-33-36-37.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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