564
FXUS65 KBYZ 070852
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
152 AM MST SUN DEC 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE LIKELY, AND MAY EXCEED 70 MPH IN
SPOTS.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- NEXT SHOT OF COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR
THURSDAY, WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH SO PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. STAY AWARE IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR OR TRAVEL PLANS!
LET'S ADDRESS THE WIND FIRST. NEXT PERIOD OF LEE SIDE PRESSURE
FALLS BEGINS THIS EVENING, AND THE GRADIENT COUPLED WITH WESTERLY
700MB WINDS TO 50KTS SUGGESTS ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS AT THE GAP
LOCATIONS (LIVINGSTON & NYE) TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE PROBABILITY
OF 60 MPH GUSTS IS 75%, AND HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY TO COVER
THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A PERIOD OF VERY
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY. MID LEVEL WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH 70-80KTS OVER
THE W/NW PORTION OF OUR CWA, DURING A TIME OF INTENSE LEE SIDE
PRESSURE FALLS (SURFACE PRESSURES SHOULD FALL UNDER 1000MB)
FOLLOWED BY A PACIFIC COLD FRONT. CONCEPTUALLY, THIS SUGGESTS
WARNING LEVEL WINDS ACROSS NOT ONLY THE USUAL SPOTS IN OUR WEST
BUT PERHAPS ALSO A BIT FURTHER EAST (GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE).
HAVE ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR LIVINGSTON & NYE (GUSTS 70-80
MPH), THE US-191 CORRIDOR FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON (GUSTS
60-70 MPH), AND GOLDEN VALLEY & NORTHERN STILLWATER COUNTIES
(GUSTS TO 60 MPH). WITH SUCH STRONG MID LEVEL FLOW HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS IN THE HIGH
WIND WATCH (GUSTS 80+ MPH). TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR PLANS MAY BE
IMPACTED BY VERY STRONG WINDS SO PLEASE PREPARE ACCORDINGLY! EAST
OF THE WATCH AREA THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY, BUT IF THE SNOW COVER
DIMINISHES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS (IT SHOULD) AND PROMOTES
MIXING, THEN WE COULD BE LOOKING AT 50+ MPH GUSTS FROM
MUSSELSHELL-YELLOWSTONE-CARBON EASTWARD TO ROSEBUD COUNTIES
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
TO BACK UP A BIT, CURRENT EXITING SHORTWAVE IS PRODUCING SOME
LIGHT SNOW AT MILES CITY, BAKER, AND EKALAKA EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH AROUND AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION BY SUNRISE. TODAY
WILL THEN BE DRY & WARMER WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW PUSHING TEMPS TO THE
30S AND LOWER 40S. THE NEXT WEAKER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A
BRIEF SHOT OF SNOW TO OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS (2-5") AND A FEW
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO LOWER ELEVATIONS TONIGHT. SOMETHING TO
WATCH: SHELTERED VALLEYS EAST OF BILLINGS MAY BE BELOW FREEZING
AS LIGHT SHOWERS TRACK WEST TO EAST, AND CANNOT RULE OUT POCKETS
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS WELL...BUT DOUBT THAT ANY OF THE PRECIP
WILL BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR THIS TO BE SIGNIFICANT.
MONDAY & MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY BEFORE NEXT PACIFIC
ENERGY AND A PACIFIC FRONT BRING MORE PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY. AS
ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, THERE IS AN AMPLE MOISTURE TAP
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PACIFIC FLOW, WITH ORIGINS A LITTLE WEST OF
HAWAII, AND ENSEMBLES SHOW PWATS IN OUR REGION REACHING 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THUS, WE ARE LOOKING AT MORE HEAVY SNOW FOR OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND A HIGH OPPORTUNITY (60-80%) FOR LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S
MONDAY & TUESDAY, WITH ABSURDLY MILD TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT, THEN A
SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY WEDNESDAY.
FOR THOSE WANTING A RETURN TO WINTRY WEATHER AFTER A WARM EARLY
HALF TO THE WEEK, WE DO EXPECT THE CANADIAN FRONT TO SAG BACK INTO
OUR AREA EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS,
THE MOIST PACIFIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A
PERIOD OF OVERRUNNING SNOWFALL THURSDAY & FRIDAY. THE HIGH PWATS
AND WHAT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER DEEP DGZ COULD YIELD SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR PARTS OF OUR CWA. OF COURSE THE DETAILS ARE
IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME BUT STAY TUNED. EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL TO
THE TEENS AND 20S (IF NOT A BIT COLDER) BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. SATURDAY MAY BE DRY/WARMER AS THE PACIFIC COAST RIDGE STARTS
TO REASSERT ITSELF.
JKL
AVIATION
A LINE OF SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS NEAR KMLS AND KSHR WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST AND EXIT ACROSS THE DAKOTA BORDER AROUND 15Z. MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON WITH THIS BAND. AN ISOLATED
BAND OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING
(20% CHANCE) AND PERIODICALLY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR UNDER THE
HEAVIEST SNOW SHOWERS. WIND GUSTS OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY, AROUND 30-40 KTS, BEFORE INCREASING THIS EVENING TO
AROUND 40-50 KTS. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 041 031/047 041/052 031/044 019/026 006/018 010/033
0/B 10/N 13/W 48/W 65/S 44/S 21/E
LVM 042 037/048 044/050 032/048 023/031 014/037 027/047
1/N 31/N 46/W 79/W 65/S 43/O 21/B
HDN 042 025/046 034/053 028/042 015/025 002/017 006/030
1/B 30/B 34/W 58/W 76/S 54/S 32/J
MLS 035 021/042 032/047 023/036 007/017 905/008 000/020
0/B 20/E 42/W 25/W 63/S 32/S 32/J
4BQ 040 024/045 033/051 027/039 014/022 000/014 005/027
1/B 10/B 22/W 25/W 63/S 32/S 21/B
BHK 031 016/041 029/044 015/032 004/015 912/004 907/019
4/S 10/N 43/W 14/J 62/S 22/S 31/E
SHR 042 021/047 029/053 025/044 018/028 005/024 009/040
1/B 10/B 24/W 68/W 75/S 43/S 21/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 34-42.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST
MONDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 65>68.
WY...NONE.
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