621
FXUS65 KBYZ 122030
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
130 PM MST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SW-W WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING; GUSTS 45-65 MPH.
- DRY, WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BRINGS AN INCREASED RISK OF GRASS FIRES, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO
WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
- WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHEAST
TUESDAY.
- CANADIAN FRONT BRINGS STRONG NW WINDS TO EASTERN AREAS,
INCLUDING SHERIDAN COUNTY, THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY;
50+ MPH GUSTS LIKELY (70% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
AS EXPECTED, WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED IN OUR WEST SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT
LIVINGSTON, BIG TIMBER, MELVILLE, HARLOWTON AND NEAR LAVINA. THE
BIG TIMBER AIRPORT DID A GUST OF 68 MPH AT 1235PM. WILL MAKE NO
CHANGES TO WIND HIGHLIGHTS IN EFFECT. THE IDA-LWT GRADIENT IS AN
IMPRESSIVE 22MB AND MIXING HAS ALLOWED STRONG GUSTS TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS. BILLINGS HAS NOT SEEN GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
YET, BUT EXPECT 40-50 MPH GUSTS A BIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPS WARM CLOSER TO 60F. SPEAKING OF TEMPS, LOW 60S HAVE BEEN
ACHIEVED AT HARDIN, FORSYTH, FORT SMITH AND LODGE GRASS. BAKER'S
CURRENT TEMP OF 51F HAS ALREADY BROKEN ITS DAILY RECORD.
MID LEVEL WINDS TO 50-55KTS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG WINDS TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WELL INTO OR THROUGH THE
EVENING, WITH ONLY A SLOW DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE AND VEERING WINDS WILL BRING BREEZY NW
WINDS TO THE EAST HALF TOMORROW, INCLUDING SHERIDAN WHERE GUSTS
SHOULD REACH 35-45 MPH. THIS WAVE (CURRENTLY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
IN CENTRAL AB/SK) DROPS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND IN
ITS WAKE SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS W/ MOISTURE IN THE NW FLOW
SHOULD BRING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTHEAST PARTS, AND
A LITTLE HIGH ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS (1-2" IN THE
BIGHORNS). MODELS HAVE ACTUALLY TRENDED WETTER HERE AND THUS HAVE
UPPED POPS TO HIGHER SCATTERED, THOUGH THE CHANCE OF 0.10" IS ONLY
10-20%. WESTERN LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN SEVERELY DOWNSLOPED.
WINDS IN THE WEST WILL GRADUALLY SLACKEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, BRINGING A BRIEF REPRIEVE INTO WEDNESDAY. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS AS A STRONGER CANADIAN WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. PROBABILITY OF 50+ MPH GUSTS IS 50%.
BEFORE GOING INTO THURSDAY, IT SHOULD BE STATED THAT VERY WARM,
DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP THE RISK OF GRASS FIRES
ELEVATED OVER WESTERN LOWER ELEVATIONS. RHS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER
TOMORROW (25-35%) BEFORE FALLING TO NEAR 20% IN WEDNESDAY'S PRE-
FRONTAL REGIME. HIGH TEMPS ON A MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 40S EAST TO MID 60S WEST, AND DAILY RECORDS WILL BE
CHALLENGED.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR A PERIOD OF STRONG POST-
FRONTAL NW WINDS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EAST
AND SHERIDAN COUNTY. INITIAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY THURSDAY,
BUT THE MORE PROBLEMATIC TIME PERIOD BEGINS WITH A SECONDARY FRONT
BY LATE THURSDAY. GUSTS TO AT LEAST 50 MPH ARE LIKELY (70% CHANCE)
AND THEY COULD REACH 60 MPH (30-40% CHANCE). GEFS & EC ENSEMBLES
EACH SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL FOR 50-60 MPH GUSTS AT BAKER & EKALAKA,
AND SIMILAR GUSTS SHOULD BE FELT AT SHERIDAN WHERE NW WINDS ARE
ENHANCED ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIGHORNS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND, THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...PER MOIST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY EXTENDING INTO THE DGZ. NOT MUCH ACCUMULATION BUT WITH
THE WIND COULD YIELD AREAS OF POOR VISIBILITY. FINALLY, THE DOSE
OF COLD ADVECTION WILL PUSH TEMPS COLDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN IN A
WHILE, AND WIND CHILLS MAY APPROACH ZERO BY EARLY FRIDAY IN THE
FAR EAST. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS ON FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
EAST TO LOWER 40S WEST.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST GETS TRICKIER BUT TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A STRONG
RIDGE NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST AND DEEP TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
LEAVING US UNDER A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NW-N FLOW. CLUSTER ANALYSES
SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS PERSISTING INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH GREATEST ANOMALIES
TO OUR WEST. GIVEN THIS, OUR WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, BUT WE COULD SEE ONE OR TWO PERIODS OF MODEST
BACKDOOR COOLING. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN TEMPERATURES SHOWS THIS
UNCERTAINTY.
IF THERE IS A MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSH OF CANADIAN COLD (W/ POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW) IT WON'T BE UNTIL THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WHEN/IF
THE GREATEST HEIGHT ANOMALY EXTENDS INTO AK AND ALLOWS FOR LOWER
HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
JKL
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG WINDS
WILL CONTINUE WEST OF KBIL THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS
IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE INTO THE 30S
KTS FOR THESE AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO THE 15-25 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KSHR WHICH WILL SEE WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 40
KTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/059 037/062 039/053 028/042 028/050 031/055 029/052
12/W 10/U 00/N 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U
LVM 042/056 036/058 037/051 024/043 027/051 031/052 029/051
01/N 00/N 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 044/058 033/060 035/051 027/040 024/046 026/053 024/050
13/W 10/B 00/N 00/B 00/B 00/U 00/U
MLS 043/054 029/050 034/043 024/032 021/036 021/043 022/041
13/W 00/B 00/N 00/N 00/B 00/U 00/B
4BQ 043/053 031/052 035/046 024/034 022/038 024/047 023/045
15/W 10/B 00/N 10/N 00/B 00/U 00/U
BHK 036/046 026/045 029/039 018/027 012/031 015/037 015/036
04/W 00/B 01/N 22/J 10/B 00/B 00/B
SHR 038/054 030/058 032/048 025/036 021/044 025/052 022/049
04/W 20/B 00/N 00/N 00/B 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 34-42-63-141-172-228.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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