021
FXUS65 KBYZ 291844
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1244 PM MDT TUE SEP 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
MIXED WESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME BREEZY TODAY, AS EXPECTED, WITH
GUSTS 25-35 MPH EXTENDING EASTWARD THROUGH MILES CITY & BAKER.
HIGHEST GUSTS WILL REMAIN ALONG WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND OUR NORTH.
HARLOWTON RECENTLY GUSTED TO 43 MPH. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN
THE 70S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THICKEST HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH A
CHINOOK ARCH TO OUR NORTH.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS SW CANADA. AN
INITIAL WAVE IS PUSHING THRU CENTRAL AB, WHILE ANOTHER WAVE IS
NEAR THE BC COAST. THE LATTER WAVE WILL TRACK CLOSER TO THE MT
BORDER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, AND BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN
FRONT'S ARRIVAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, BREEZY WINDS
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH A SHIFT TO NW-NE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.
TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT STILL
A LITTLE WARMER THAN NORMAL. THE FROPA ITSELF WILL BE DRY.
BACKDOOR COOLING/MOISTENING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH OVERRUNNING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE RIPPLES OF LIGHT SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT, MAINLY OVER OUR NORTH AND EAST, AND IN FACT MOST RECENT
MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WETTER HERE. THE DEEPENING/MOISTENING
LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MAY ALSO YIELD LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG AT
SOME POINT, AND THIS WILL BE MONITORED. TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS THURSDAY, WITH COOLER (BUT NOT
COLD) NIGHTS.
BRIEF/FLAT RIDGING AND RETURN TO DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD PUSH TEMPS
BACK TO THE MID 60S TO MID 70S FRIDAY. ANOTHER CANADIAN WAVE AND
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP A MODESTLY COOLER
SATURDAY. THIS NEXT CANADIAN FRONT LOOKS DRIER BUT STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR NORTH AND EAST.
IN ITS WAKE, A MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PACNW AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A HIGHER HEIGHT
REGIME FROM THE WEEKEND THRU THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. THOUGH
THE RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF BACKDOOR
COOLING ARE POSSIBLE, THE STRONG RIDGE SUPPORTS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS AND DRY WX THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH PERHAPS LOWER 80S
RETURNING NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WARMER & DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS
PERSISTING IN THE 8-14 DAY TIME FRAME (OCT 7-13), PER A STAGNANT
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THE PACIFIC TROPICS REMAIN VERY
ACTIVE AND IT MAY TAKE A TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE TO ALTER THE
LONGWAVE PATTERN AT SOME POINT.
JKL
AVIATION
EXPECT BREEZY WEST WINDS OVER MUCH OF MONTANA TODAY, WITH THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS IN SOUTHERN MONTANA EXISTING OVER FOOTHILLS
WEST OF BILLINGS (INCLUDING KLVM, K6S0, AND K3HT). WHILE WINDS
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT, WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
WITH THIS, EXPECT A WIND SHIFT ON WEDNESDAY FROM WEST TO NORTH
THEN EAST AS A DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 050/075 044/062 042/070 046/068 044/070 047/079 053/077
00/U 01/B 10/U 30/U 00/U 00/B 00/U
LVM 045/073 038/066 038/075 043/071 040/074 045/080 047/076
00/U 01/B 10/B 10/U 00/U 00/B 00/U
HDN 046/075 043/064 039/070 043/069 042/072 043/080 049/078
00/U 02/W 10/B 31/U 00/U 00/B 00/U
MLS 051/074 044/059 041/068 045/067 044/070 047/077 051/076
00/B 23/W 10/B 31/U 00/U 00/B 00/U
4BQ 049/075 046/063 042/070 048/067 045/071 049/079 053/077
00/U 11/B 20/B 21/U 00/U 00/B 00/U
BHK 048/074 041/059 037/066 043/067 040/067 043/076 049/076
00/U 24/W 20/B 22/W 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 042/076 041/065 038/072 044/068 041/072 044/080 048/077
00/U 01/B 20/U 21/U 00/U 00/B 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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