056
FXUS65 KBYZ 181134
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
534 AM MDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
- IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND?
UPDATE
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS TO SHIFT OUT
OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER THE
WEST TO THE 60S OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. A GOOD 15 TO 20
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING TO CURRENT TRENDS. AN UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION IS
BELOW. STP
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS...
A WEAK AND INCONSEQUENTIAL COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA
BEFORE SUNRISE TODAY WHICH WILL DO NOTHING MORE THAN SHIFT WINDS
OUT OF THE NW. WHILE 700MB WINDS WILL BE IN THE 30KT RANGE OVER
THE PLAINS, THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL KEEP GUSTS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE OFF OF THE GROUND.
THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL
EVER SO SLIGHTLY BUILD WESTWARDS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WHICH
WILL PUT ALL OF OUR CWA UNDER THE BROAD-SCALE SUBSIDENCE. THIS
WILL ALSO MEAN THAT THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL JET WILL BE ORIENTED
SW TO NE OVER WESTERN MT KEEPING ANY THREAT FOR A MAJOR WIND
EVENT MINIMAL AS WELL. THESE WINDS ALOFT DO NOT EVEN APPEAR TO BE
VERY STRONG ON ANY MODEL. EVEN THOUGH ANOTHER WEEK COLD FRONT
COULD PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THE MAIN STORY
THIS WEEK, IF YOU CAN EVEN CALL IT THAT, WILL BE THE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NBM KEEPS HIGHS ACROSS OUR
POPULATED AREAS IN THE HIGH 60S AND LOW 70S THROUGH THE ENTIRETY
OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR AN IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM COMES FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. A LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD MOVE ASHORE OVER SOUTHERN
CA AND PUSH INTO THE GREAT BASIN. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF MODEL
DISCREPANCY REGARDING WHAT THIS WILL DO FOR OUR AREA. THE ONLY
AGREEMENT IS THAT THERE WILL BE SOME SORT OF WEATHER MAKER. HOW
MUCH MOISTURE, TEMPERATURES, TIMING, AND WINDS ALL REMAIN BIG
QUESTIONS. IF YOU HAVE PLANS NEXT WEEKEND BE SURE TO CHECK FUTURE
FORECASTS AS THE IMPACTS FOR THIS SYSTEM COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.
WMR
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUDS. LOOK FOR NORTHWEST WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING BEHIND A FRONTAL PASSAGE. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 038/068 041/070 041/067 044/074 048/064 040/053
0/B 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U 36/W 62/W
LVM 062 033/072 038/070 037/069 040/073 041/057 030/049
0/B 00/U 01/B 10/U 01/U 48/W 62/W
HDN 066 037/070 037/070 038/070 041/075 044/066 039/056
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 26/W 62/W
MLS 064 042/070 041/069 040/066 044/074 048/067 041/053
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 14/W 52/W
4BQ 065 043/069 044/071 043/068 048/078 052/070 043/053
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 13/W 62/W
BHK 065 037/066 038/073 039/068 043/078 049/073 039/054
0/B 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 13/W 53/W
SHR 065 036/068 038/071 039/069 041/075 044/065 038/053
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 26/W 73/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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