650
FXUS65 KBYZ 101513
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
813 AM MST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODIC STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THIS
WEEKEND AND FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK; HIGHEST GUSTS EXPECTED
MONDAY & TUESDAY.
- MONDAY IS LOOKING WARM AND WINDY ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS;
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR GRASS FIRES, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO
WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION, DOWNSTREAM
OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST. THE RESULTANT SURFACE
GRADIENT SUPPORTS MORE WESTERLY WINDS THAN GAP FLOW, AND INDEED
THAT IS WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SINCE YESTERDAY. CURRENT GUSTS AT
LIVINGSTON ARE IN THE 30S. OVER TIME THE RIDGE AXIS WILL FLATTEN
AND SHIFT A BIT TO THE EAST, AND THE BACKED WINDS ALOFT SHOULD
SUPPORT HIGHER GUSTS IN THE GAP LOCATIONS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH 50 MPH GUSTS LIKELY...SO FOR NOW WILL LET THE WIND ADVISORY
FOR THESE AREAS RIDE. THE US-191 CORRIDOR WILL REMAIN WINDY WITH
40-50 MPH GUSTS, AS HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED. OTHER THAN WIND,
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER
FOR A FEW MORE HOURS (LOCAL RADAR BACKS THIS UP). OTHERWISE, TODAY
WILL BE DRY, BREEZY AND WARMER WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S (COOLEST IN THE EAST). BREEZY NW WINDS
HAVE SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 40S MPH IN BILLINGS. WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 20S AND 30S MPH
ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE PLAINS TODAY, WITH HIGHER GUSTS WEST
OF BILLINGS. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON AND NYE REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING, WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING 50 TO 60 MPH. THE THREAT FOR THESE WINDS
REMAINS IN FLUX, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IDAHO FALLS AND
LEWISTOWN INCREASES. THE PROBLEM FOR THE GAP LOCATIONS REMAINS THE
UNFAVORABLE 700MB FLOW WHICH IS NORTHWESTERLY. AN INCREASING
GRADIENT WILL ALSO FAVOR THE US-191 CORRIDOR TODAY, WITH THE NW
FLOW INCREASING WIND GUSTS INTO THE 40S TO 50 MPH.
A WEAK WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE OVERALL RIDGING THROUGH TODAY,
WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE DAKOTAS
BORDER THROUGH THIS MORNING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW
TENTHS ARE FORECAST. BEYOND THESE SHOWERS, THE CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN VERY LOW (10% OR LESS) ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 40S
AND 50S ON SUNDAY, ALONG WITH GUSTS IN THE 10S TO 30 MPH ACROSS
THE PLAINS.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST A BIT ON MONDAY, ALONG WITH A SERIES OF
WEAK WAVES. THE ONLY IMPACTS FROM THIS WILL BRING A STRONG 700MB
JET TO THE AREA, WITH 50-70 KNOTS. MODELS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUE
TO HIGHLIGHT A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS ON MONDAY, SPECIFICALLY
ALONG THE US-191 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT, A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED, IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. ACROSS THE
PLAINS, SOUNDINGS DEPICT STRONG LAPSE RATES (>7.0C/KM), 35-50
KNOT WINDS AT 850MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 45
MPH. CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH OVER THE PLAINS IS
LOW TO MODERATE, WITH THE BEST CHANCE EXISTING OVER GOLDEN VALLEY,
MUSSELSHELL, AND NORTHERN STILLWATER COUNTIES. FOR LOCATIONS EAST
OF THESE COUNTIES, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 40 MPH. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL
PLANS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND LOW 60S ARE FORECAST, MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE WARM, BREEZY, AND DRY
CONDITIONS HAS LED TO INCREASED GRASS FIRE CONCERN, ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. TAKE CARE NOT TO CAUSE A SPARK.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BACK OFF (GUSTS IN THE 30S AND 40S MPH)
ACROSS THE WESTERN GAPS AND FOOTHILLS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF WIND ARE POSSIBLE THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK.
A FEW MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEPICT A TROUGH AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
THOUGH. THE ECMWF IS DEPICTING THIS MUCH MORE THAN THE GFS AND
CANADIAN, WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY. THE
GFS SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS SKIRTING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BORDER
ON THE OTHER HAND. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR CHANGES.
ANOTHER, POTENTIALLY MORE POTENT, SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED BY A FEW
ENSEMBLES LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS IS SHOWN IN TEMPERATURE
METEOGRAMS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40SF. OVERALL
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
MATOS
AVIATION
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, STRONGEST OVER THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS AROUND KLVM, K6S0, AND K3HT. WHILE WINDS THIS MORNING
AROUND KMLS AND KSHR ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHTER, INCREASED WINDS A
FEW THOUSAND FEET OFF THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR BEFORE WINDS MIX DOWN LATER TODAY. WHILE WINDS
LOOK TO TAPER OFF A BIT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES MAY IMPACT
FAR EASTERN MONTANA, INCLUDING KBHK AND K97M, THIS MORNING (20
PERCENT CHANCE). WITH THIS, BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051 038/052 036/059 046/061 040/061 039/052 029/042
0/N 00/B 00/N 01/N 00/B 01/U 11/B
LVM 047 035/050 033/053 040/054 037/057 035/050 025/042
0/N 00/N 00/N 12/W 00/B 01/U 00/B
HDN 051 031/054 030/060 044/060 036/060 036/051 026/041
0/B 00/U 00/N 02/W 10/B 01/U 11/B
MLS 045 029/050 032/057 043/055 032/053 035/046 023/033
1/E 00/U 00/N 00/E 00/B 01/B 21/B
4BQ 045 032/052 032/058 044/055 034/055 036/048 024/033
1/N 00/U 00/B 01/E 10/B 01/B 21/B
BHK 037 024/047 028/053 037/049 027/047 029/043 017/030
3/J 00/U 00/N 01/N 00/B 01/N 22/J
SHR 048 026/055 027/059 036/055 033/057 031/048 021/036
0/N 00/U 00/B 02/W 10/B 01/N 11/N
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR ZONES 63-141-172-228.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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