928
FXUS65 KBYZ 010750
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
150 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOST DAYS THIS WEEK.
- A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, MAINLY OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TO START THE WEEK.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK BEFORE TEMPERATURES
TREND WARMER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LOW RIGHT OVER MONTANA WITH ITS
AXIS EXTENDING WEST TO EAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MONTANA. MUCH OF
THE PRECIPITATION WAS NOW WRAPPED AROUND INTO NORTH WEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE. SYNOPTIC LIFT HAS WEAKENED OVER
OUR AREA AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS DRIED OUT THE LOWER AND MID LEVELS
WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER. THE
DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT MUCH RISK OF FOG DESPITE THE RECENT
RAINFALL, WHICH HAS EXCEEDED 1" AT MANY LOCATIONS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS OVER MT/CANADIAN BORDER TODAY, ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE MEAN CYCLONIC FLOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
SOUTHERN ID TOWARD SW MT LATE. MODELS SUGGEST THIS WILL TRIGGER
SOME SHOWERS OFF THE BEARTOOTHS WHICH WILL TRACK NORTHEAST INTO
OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY EVENING. MUCAPE IS PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO
500-1000 J/KG IN OUR FOUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY THAT TIME. SO WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE AT LEAST INITIALLY NON-SEVERE, THERE ARE
SIGNS THAT INGREDIENTS, SUCH AS A LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY,
MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STRONGER CELLS IN SOUTHEAST MT (POWDER
RIVER, CUSTER, FALLON & CARTER COUNTIES) AS THIS ACTIVITY
PROPAGATES THROUGH THE EVENING. IN THE MEANTIME, SOME CONVECTION
MAY ALSO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CARTER COUNTY INTO THE BLACK
HILLS AND SOUTH TO THE NEBRASKA E PANHANDLE ALONG A PSEUDO DRYLINE
FEATURE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF WINDOW LATE TODAY
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN CARTER COUNTY BEFORE MOVING
EAST.
ENSEMBLES IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TUE/WED, KEEPING US UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW,
THUS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS SOMEWHERE IN OUR
AREA EACH DAY. MORE NOTABLY, THERE MAY BE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ON TUESDAY NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDER, THOUGH PROGGS INDICATE THE MOST
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL RESIDE JUST EAST OF THE STATELINE IN
THE DAKOTAS. OTHERWISE, THE AIR MASS IS LOOKING MORE STABLE
WEDNESDAY SO THIS WILL BE THE MORE BENIGN DAY.
MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING ACROSS IDAHO
INTO MONTANA ON THURSDAY. AS TEMPS WARM GRADUALLY THE NEXT FEW
DAYS (70S MON-WED, 75-80F THU) AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE E-SE, WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A SET-UP FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN OUR
EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NEURAL NET AND AI CONVECTIVE MODELS
ALSO HINT AT THIS SCENARIO. IF IT MATERIALIZES, THERE WOULD BE A
RISK OF HAIL/STRONG GUSTS ON THURSDAY...AND ALSO HEAVY RAIN AS
PWATS ARE PROGGED TO JUMP TO AROUND AN INCH OVER THE PLAINS.
FRIDAY LOOKS QUIET AND WARMER (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S), BUT BY THE
WEEKEND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE PAC NW BACKING OUR MID
LEVEL FLOW TO THE SW. THIS SETS UP OUR MOST CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED PATTERN FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND. SO AS TEMPS
PUSH 90F BY SATURDAY, THE RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY INCREASE WITH ANY ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE PACIFIC TROUGH. IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT WE ARE ENTERING INTO A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM
PATTERN AS EXPECTED FOR JUNE. BT
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 30S TO 40S KNOTS. OVER FAR SOUTH-
EASTERN MONTANA, A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL (MARGINAL RISK
FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, 1/5). DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE
OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, THE PROBABILITY FOR
THUNDER AT ANY GIVEN AIRFIELD REMAINS LOW. OTHERWISE, PATCHY FOG
IS POSSIBLE NEAR KSHR EARLY THIS MORNING. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS
WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072 046/074 048/074 051/078 052/083 055/093 056/082
2/T 21/B 20/B 04/T 51/U 10/U 12/T
LVM 066 040/071 042/076 045/074 044/080 046/086 046/075
3/T 32/T 21/U 17/T 31/U 01/B 24/T
HDN 072 044/075 046/075 048/080 050/082 053/093 055/082
3/T 30/B 31/B 14/T 51/B 00/U 12/W
MLS 070 046/074 048/073 049/079 054/080 055/090 060/084
2/B 41/B 31/B 14/T 72/T 10/U 11/U
4BQ 072 048/075 049/073 050/078 053/078 054/090 059/085
2/T 22/W 40/B 25/T 52/T 10/U 01/U
BHK 071 046/075 046/072 045/076 050/077 050/087 057/085
2/B 54/W 41/B 15/T 64/T 21/U 11/N
SHR 072 042/075 044/072 045/077 047/078 048/090 051/082
2/T 21/B 33/T 15/T 33/T 11/U 02/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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