983
FXUS65 KBYZ 301932
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
132 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE,
MOVING THROUGH SE MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS
OF 25-40 MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
- TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK AHEAD.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEK AHEAD. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS WEEK.
- CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK DUE TO A
STRONG UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE PACNW. STAY TUNED FOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS WEEK IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.
UPDATE
UPDATED FORECAST FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR CUSTER,
POWDER RIVER, FALLON, AND CARTER COUNTIES, UNTIL 9 PM MDT.
REASONING IS THE SAME AS DISCUSSED BELOW. CHAMBERS
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ZONES AT MID-DAY, WILL CONTINUE
TO QUICKLY PUSH THROUGH EASTERN MT AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 6PM
THIS EVENING. ALONG THE FRONT SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLY OVER 70 MPH. LATEST HI-RES/CAM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
POCKETS OF 70+MPH WINDS (SOME SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER) OVER PORTIONS
OF SE MT (CARTER/FALLON/CUSTER/POWDER RIVER COUNTIES) THOUGH EACH
RUN IS PLACING THESE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS WITHIN THESE COUNTIES.
SPC CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON FOR THIS AREA, AND WOULD ANTICIPATE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH SHOULD THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE STRONG
WIND SIGNATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
ALREADY SEEING CLEARING AND THE ONSET OF MORE SUSTAINED WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. EXPECT AFTERNOON
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-40 MPH TO BECOME COMMON THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT DRIVES DOWN
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT TO THE SURFACE.
CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING OVER AREA MOUNTAINS TONIGHT, WITH
WESTERN VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE REST
OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWS AROUND 50 DEGREES TONIGHT.
MOSTLY SUNNY, WARMER, AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVER SOUTHEAST MT EARLY IN THE
DAY, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY SHOW CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY. A STRONG
PACIFIC LOW WILL SET UP SHOP ALONG THE PACNW COAST DURING THIS
PERIOD. WHAT HAPPENS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND HOW CLOSE IT COMES TO OUT
AREA. CURRENTLY A WEAK SERIES OF DISTURBANCES COME NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY, PROVIDING MORE CLOUD COVER AND A
LOW TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND THE MT/WY
BORDER AREAS. A STRONGER NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF IS TAKING SHAPE,
IN AT LEAST THE GFS SOLUTIONS, FOR WEDNESDAY THAT IF IT BECOMES
THE PREFERRED SOLUTION COULD BRING A MUCH BROADER PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. THURSDAY SETS UP SIMILAR TO TUESDAY IN THE LATEST
MODELS. OVERALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE THE MODELS ADJUST TO
THE INTRICACIES OF THE UPPER LOW POSITION AND STRENGTH, WITH
VARIABILITY IN THE FORECAST AS A RESULT. FOR NOW THE NBM FORECAST
IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES (80S-LOWER 90S) BY WEDNESDAY WITH AT
LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. BUT
STAY TUNED AS THIS MAY CHANGE GOING FORWARD.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AGAIN THIS PERIOD WILL DEPEND GREATLY
ON HOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE PACNW LOW WORKS OUT. LOW LEVEL SOUTH-
EAST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
AREA. DIVERGENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD PROVIDE SHEAR
AND DYNAMIC LIFT AT TIMES. THIS PATTERN FAVORS CONTINUED CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PERHAPSE A FEW STRONGER STORMS,
DURING THIS PERIOD. LATEST MODELS START TO TRACK THE UPPER LOW
CLOSER TO THE AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, THUS WOULD ANTICIPATE
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING LOWER
AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES. AGAIN, IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, CHECK BACK IN ON THE FORECAST AS THERE ARE
LIKELY TO BE CHANGES AS THE MODELS WORK OUT THE SPECIFIC DETAILS
WITH THIS PACNW STORM SYSTEM. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING A COLD
FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WITH STORMS SO FAR. A FEW
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON, CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND SMALL
HAIL. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS GREATEST AROUND KBHK AND K97M
BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z. BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 20-35
KNOTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL INTO THIS EVENING.
EXPECT PERIODIC MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH PRECIPITATION AND MID-
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR WINDS TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS TO OTHERWISE PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.
MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 050/081 053/083 058/089 058/087 057/090 058/087
8/T 00/U 00/B 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 073 041/081 045/082 047/082 045/080 045/084 047/084
1/N 00/K 01/B 21/N 00/N 00/U 01/U
HDN 075 047/083 050/085 052/092 052/090 051/093 053/090
8/T 00/U 00/E 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 077 050/080 051/085 057/091 059/089 057/092 060/090
8/T 00/U 00/B 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 080 049/082 054/084 057/091 059/090 059/093 062/091
8/T 10/U 03/T 10/U 10/U 00/U 01/U
BHK 082 046/081 046/084 051/090 056/090 055/094 058/092
8/T 10/U 01/B 30/U 10/U 00/U 01/U
SHR 077 044/082 049/082 050/089 049/088 050/091 054/089
6/T 00/K 01/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 636 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37.
WY...NONE.
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