559
FXUS65 KBYZ 191132
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
532 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, BUT THE CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS IS
CURRENTLY LOW.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL ADVECT IN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT
VALUES NEAR 150% OF NORMAL. SATURDAY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH CAPE VALUES UP TO 500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES GREATER THAN 40 KTS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED DUE TO
THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW.
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO MORE OF A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO MOISTENING LOW LEVELS (RH>70%) AND
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL FLOW. GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE LCL-EL CLOUD
LAYER WIND SPEEDS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS INDICATING SLOW MOVING
STORMS. CORFIDI VECTORS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE PREFERRED VALUES
BUT WILL BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN TO LESS THAN 15 KTS INCREASING HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH ARE NEAR THE
90TH PERCENTILE BUT FORECASTED SOUNDINGS DON'T INDICATE THE LONG
SKINNY CAPE PROFILES THAT ARE IDEAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. ENSEMBLES ARE
INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY REAMIN BELOW 0.75
INCHES BUT 90TH PERCENTILE VALUES ARE IN THE 1-1.5 INCH RANGE EAST
OF ROSEBUD COUNTY. LOCATIONS FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY AND WEST ARE
EXPECTED TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.
DUE TO THIS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, WPC HAS ISSUED A LEVEL 1 OF
4 RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
MONDAY WILL SEE AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA
BRINGING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. QUIETER CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH
ONLY MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S F THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN INCREASE INTO THE 80S F BY THURSDAY.
TORGERSON
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH PASSING
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MT WILL
DECREASE BY 15Z. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER THE PLAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MT FOR THIS AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY
DECREASING THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 055/081 058/080 053/072 049/078 053/084 056/087
0/B 02/E 32/T 64/T 10/U 11/B 11/B
LVM 075 046/078 048/077 044/071 042/079 046/084 048/086
0/B 06/T 62/T 43/T 10/U 11/B 12/T
HDN 076 054/082 056/079 050/071 046/077 050/084 053/086
0/B 00/E 53/T 56/T 10/U 11/U 11/U
MLS 073 052/081 055/075 050/070 047/073 048/079 053/083
0/U 02/B 57/T 46/T 10/U 01/B 12/T
4BQ 073 053/081 055/073 050/068 047/073 048/078 053/081
2/U 02/W 88/T 47/T 20/U 11/U 22/T
BHK 071 046/077 050/068 046/068 043/070 043/075 047/079
0/U 02/N 68/W 37/T 21/U 01/B 12/T
SHR 074 048/080 050/074 046/066 042/074 046/080 049/082
0/B 14/T 78/T 89/T 22/T 13/T 33/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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