426
FXUS65 KBYZ 260957
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
357 AM MDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 40S/50S) THIS WEEK.
- LOCALIZED FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.
- WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A SHOT OF RAIN/MTN SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS GUSTY WEST WINDS.
- MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY AT TIMES LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
UPDATE
NARROW BAND OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CONTINUES FROM NEAR COLSTRIP TO
MILES CITY AND BAKER AS OF 0945Z, IN RESPONSE TO A VERY WEAK AND
SLOW-MOVING WAVE LIFTING THRU SOUTHEAST MT. MANY LOCATIONS FROM
ROSEBUD COUNTY EASTWARD HAVE ACTUALLY RECEIVED 0.01-0.10" OF
PRECIP OVER THE PAST 12HRS. IT HAS SNOWED INTERMITTENTLY AT BAKER
AND EKALAKA BUT AIRPORT CAMERAS SHOW WET GROUND ONLY, THOUGH THERE
LIKELY HAS BEEN A DUSTING OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER HILLS. SKIES ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WE HAVE
YET TO SEE ANY FOG DEVELOP. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FOG
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT AXIS FROM MUSSELSHELL TO
YELLOWSTONE AND BIG HORN COUNTIES BY 12Z. DEW POINT SPREADS ARE
STILL SEVERAL DEGREES SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW FOR FOG. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW OVER
BC/WA AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS IN CENTRAL WA/OR. ASCENT WILL
REACH OUR WEST THIS EVENING BRINGING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. THE GREATEST RISK OF A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IS TO OUR
WEST IN SOUTH CENTRAL MT, BUT COULD SEE A FEW RUMBLES REACH OUR
FAR WEST (HREF SHOWS A SMATTERING OF 40DBZ PAINTBALLS BETWEEN
03-06Z). IN ANY EVENT, EXPECT LOWER ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW IN THE WEST TONIGHT, REACHING BILLINGS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. MOUNTAINS' SW-NW ASPECTS SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. FRONTAL PRECIP MAY DRIVE PTYPE TO SNOW ALONG
WESTERN FOOTHILLS INCLUDING LIVINGSTON BUT SURFACE TEMPS SHOULD
REMAIN WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY ACCUMULATION BELOW ~5KFT.
HOWEVER, I-90 OVER BOZEMAN PASS COULD SEE DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS BRIEFLY. JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
AS AN UPPER LOW EXITS THE REGION THIS MORNING, A CHANCE (20-40%)
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP WILL FALL AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX, BECOMING
ALL SNOW IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDER. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE (<20%) FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER FALLON AND
CARTER COUNTIES THROUGH SUNRISE. CURRENTLY, THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR MORE THAN A DUSTING OF SNOW IS NEAR BAKER, WITH A 20% CHANCE
FOR MORE THAN 0.5".
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY (40-60% CHANCE) THIS
MORNING, ESPECIALLY WHERE PRECIP HAS RECENTLY FALLEN AND ALONG
RIVER VALLEYS.
A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AGGRESSIVELY PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE
(30-60%) OF PRECIP FOR MUCH OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY, ALONG
WITH BREEZY WINDS OF 25-45 MPH (HIGHEST OVER THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS) TUESDAY. THE SPEED OF THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE, WITH THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP ENDING FOR MOST
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THE CHANCE FOR 0.25" HAS
DECREASED. THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE AT 70%, FOLLOWED BY NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY AT
40%. MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PLAINS WILL SEE A LESS THAN 20%
CHANCE. AS FOR SNOW, A FEW FLAKES MAY STILL MIX IN OVER THE
PLAINS, BUT OVERALL THE CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIMITED TO
THE MOUNTAINS. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 40% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 2"
OF SNOW ABOVE 7,000 FT OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE WEST ASPECTS OF THE HIGHEST PEAKS. FOR THE
NORTHERN BIGHORNS, THE CHANCE FOR SNOW CONTINUES TO REMAIN LOW,
WITH JUST A 35% CHANCE OF AROUND 1" ACCUMULATION ON WEST SLOPES.
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, THE PATTERN
WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW OCCASIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS, BUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
AND BREEZY AT TIMES.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONABLE THROUGH
THURSDAY AND NEAR SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ARCHER
AVIATION
ISSUED 10Z. POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE/SNOW EAST OF KBIL SHOULD
TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE. EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOW CEILINGS (MOSTLY MVFR)
TO CONTINUE IMPACTING THE EAST (KMLS-KBHK-K97M) TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WITH LOCALIZED FOG AN ADDITIONAL IMPACT NEAR THE DAKOTAS
BORDER TONIGHT. FOR AREAS TO THE WEST, LOCALIZED FOG IS STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN SOME RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.
IMPACTS TO KBIL, KSHR, AND KLVM ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ~16Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW (30%). THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
ONCE MORNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS ERODE IN THE WEST, VFR WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT, EXPECT A PACIFIC FRONT TO BRING
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS BEGINNING BY LATE EVENING IN THE FAR WEST, AND
SPREADING EASTWARD TO KBIL OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN OBSCURATIONS OF
THE CRAZY AND BEARTOOTH ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND LOCALIZED MVFR AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS. BRISK WEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KNOTS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (KLVM-K6S0-KHWQ) AFTER 06Z.
JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051 037/058 034/058 031/052 032/046 030/052 034/053
0/U 52/W 00/U 00/U 01/E 11/B 22/W
LVM 051 033/052 024/052 024/052 030/050 032/053 030/052
0/U 82/W 00/U 00/B 12/W 22/W 43/W
HDN 058 033/061 028/061 026/055 028/050 027/055 030/056
0/U 35/W 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 22/W
MLS 049 032/054 031/058 029/053 029/051 031/052 032/055
1/E 06/W 00/U 00/U 01/E 22/W 22/W
4BQ 049 034/059 032/060 030/057 033/055 034/055 035/058
1/E 02/W 00/U 00/U 00/B 21/B 22/W
BHK 043 025/053 028/058 026/055 026/051 029/053 031/056
2/S 02/W 00/U 00/U 11/B 33/W 22/W
SHR 057 030/059 025/059 024/058 026/054 027/056 029/057
0/B 22/B 00/U 00/U 01/B 11/B 23/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page