106
FXUS65 KBYZ 051837
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1237 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING; HIGHEST RISK OF STRONG WINDS
WEST AND NORTH OF BILLINGS.
- SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW, BUT HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE.
- TRENDING DRIER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY; STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST.
- CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR HOT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND; THIS IS
LOOKING LIKE THE HOTTEST TEMPS YET OF 2026, WITH TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT POSSIBLE. GROWING RISK OF IMPACTS FROM EXTREME HEAT.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST AND THE SW FLOW ALOFT IS
STARTING TO INTRODUCE SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE OVER WA AND WEAK ENERGY OF
SUBTROPICAL ORIGINS NEAR THE CA COAST. IT IS THE INITIAL FEATURE
THAT WILL PROVIDE MODEST ASCENT FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY, WHILE
THE LATTER ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE BEARTOOTH-
ABSAROKAS AROUND 19-20Z, THEN DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S, STORMS
WILL BE HIGH-BASED AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE GREATEST RISK OF
STRONG CONVECTIVE WINDS OVER OUR W/NW BETWEEN 22-03Z. A COUPLE
CAMS SHOW A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE INVERTED TROF OVER FAR EASTERN MT. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
MLCAPES TO 500J/KG BUT WITH PLENTY OF CIN AT 17Z. DEWPTS ARE
HIGHER NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER (MID 50S) SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A
STRONG STORM DEVELOPS IN THIS AREA, BUT THE WARMER MID LEVELS AND
HIGH HEIGHTS MAY PREVENT THIS. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
WEAK CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT OUR EAST BY ~09Z TONIGHT AND THIS WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY A PUSH OF N-NE WINDS BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE. A
FEW THINGS HERE. THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL DROP HIGH TEMPS TO THE
80S TOMORROW. THERE WILL ALSO BE A NOTABLE RISE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW PWATS INCREASING TO OVER AN
INCH. THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME CAPPING
INITIALLY, BUT AS MORE ENERGY ARRIVES FROM THE SW THERE IS A MUCH
GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND WET THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE
SHORTWAVE FAVORS NORTHERN MT FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP MONDAY NIGHT THRU
TUESDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND WET
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS WELL...AGAIN CONSIDERING
THE ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS...AND ANY STORM WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS ALSO A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WX IN
THE EAST ON TUESDAY. NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS HAVE A 30-50%
CHANCE AT SEEING A HALF INCH OF RAIN. THE PROBABILITY FOR AN INCH
OF RAIN IS 20-30% AT MILES CITY AND BAKER.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES IN ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY, BUT THE AIR MASS WILL
GRADUALLY TURN DRIER DURING THIS TIME. LOOK FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY (LOW RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS?), THEN ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE EAST THURSDAY AND
MAYBE FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THRU THURSDAY
THEN BEGIN TO CREEP UP FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A VERY STRONG RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND HOT TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND. THIS MAY NOT BE RUN
OF THE MILL JULY HEAT. EVEN ENSEMBLES SHOW HEIGHTS NEAR 600DAM
CENTERED OVER WY/UT/CO, AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE SHOWING
700MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR A WHOPPING +20C (UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
HERE, OF COURSE). IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE HEIGHTS WILL
BUILD WITH AMPLITUDE THRU THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, OR IF WESTERLY
FLOW THRU SOUTHERN CANADA WILL KEEP IT FLATTER. EITHER WAY, IT'S
GOING TO GET HOT. THE QUESTION IS HOW HOT. AS OF NOW, THERE IS A
50-70% CHANCE OF REACHING 100F ON SATURDAY EVERYWHERE BILLINGS
EASTWARD, AND ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES ON SUNDAY. IF THE
HOTTER MODELS VERIFY WE COULD BE LOOKING AT TEMPS OF 105F OR MORE.
ONE RECENT MODEL TREND HAS BEEN TO BUILD THE HEAT QUICKER, BY
SATURDAY, AND THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS. OVER TIME INTO EARLY THE
FOLLOWING WEEK, THE STRONG HIGH ALOFT WILL INTRODUCE MONSOON
MOISTURE, AND THERE MAY ALSO BE A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE OF SOME
MAGNITUDE. LOTS YET TO BE DETERMINED BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW DAYS
OF EXTREME HEAT. PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST AND PREPARE IF YOU
HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED.
JKL
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER THE REGION AROUND
21Z AND EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 06Z MONDAY. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTIONS ARE NOT LIKELY. WIND GUSTS NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER
(KBHK,K97M) ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20-25 KT RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE MONDAY, WITH
GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. TORGERSON/ARCHER
THUNDERSTORM TIMING
KLVM21Z-02Z
KBIL22Z-02Z
KMLS 03Z-07Z
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/083 061/086 060/091 061/088 062/094 066/101 068/098
43/T 52/T 22/T 51/U 10/U 00/G 00/U
LVM 055/080 053/085 054/089 054/085 054/091 058/097 059/094
33/T 63/T 23/T 41/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 063/087 060/087 057/092 060/089 060/096 063/102 066/100
22/B 62/T 22/T 31/U 10/U 00/G 00/U
MLS 066/086 062/081 058/087 061/088 060/094 065/100 068/096
30/B 88/T 41/U 41/U 11/U 10/U 00/U
4BQ 066/089 063/085 059/088 061/086 060/092 066/100 068/097
12/B 74/T 43/T 32/T 11/U 10/U 00/U
BHK 063/086 057/078 054/082 056/086 055/088 060/097 065/094
20/B 78/T 62/T 25/T 21/U 10/U 00/U
SHR 060/086 058/086 055/088 056/087 056/094 060/101 064/100
13/T 43/T 53/T 32/T 11/U 00/G 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page