258
FXUS65 KBYZ 121113
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
513 AM MDT SUN APR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS 40-50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
- ACTIVE WEATHER INTO TUESDAY, WITH PERIODS OF LOWER ELEVATION
RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW.
- ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM (POTENTIALLY COOLER) LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A SHORTWAVE UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS PAST EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN WEAK, MAINLY PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS 40-55
MPH. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THIS MORNING. INTO TODAY,
CONDITIONS AREN'T EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM, BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE
DRY. BREEZY CONDITIONS AREN'T EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ERRATIC
THUNDERSTORM GUSTS, BUT USE CAUTION AS TO NOT CAUSE A SPARK. THE
LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE A WAVE LIFTS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MT. FROM THIS, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING FOR
AREAS OF ROSEBUD COUNTY WEST. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE SHEAR WITH
THIS SETUP (30-40KTS), BUT INSTABILITY STILL REMAINS LOW WITH THE
HREF SHOWING MUCAPE VALUES OF 500 J/KG OR LESS. INTO MONDAY,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS (LESS THAN 10% CHANCE)
ARE POSSIBLE AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK.
TUESDAY LOOKS TO REMIN MOSTLY DRY AS A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING
PATTERN BRIEFLY RETURNS. LATE WEDNESDAY, ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT A LOW WILL DROP PUT OF WESTERN CANADA BRINGING INCREASED
MOISTURE AND COOLER CONDITIONS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON PRECIP AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM AND HOW LONG THE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN. CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 50-75% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIP FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND NORTHERN
WY WITH ABOUT A 25-50% CHANCE FOR SOUTHEAST MT WED- FRI. THE
MOUNTAINS HAVE ABOUT A 30-60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST AN INCH OF
PRECIP. CHANCES FOR A FOOT OF SNOW ARE SITTING AT ABOUT 60-80%.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, COOLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TS
AVIATION
VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF TODAY, WITH WESTERLY WINDS TURNING
EASTERLY FOR MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIFT THROUGH
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SHOWERS LINGERING
BEYOND 06Z NEAR KMLS AND KBHK. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS OF 25
TO 40 KTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM, ALONG
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 069 041/063 040/066 043/066 035/046 027/048 028/055
5/T 75/W 31/U 13/W 88/W 43/J 12/W
LVM 064 036/056 035/060 039/058 030/041 022/045 024/052
7/T 56/W 31/N 17/W 98/J 43/J 12/W
HDN 071 040/064 038/067 039/069 035/050 026/048 025/057
3/T 76/W 32/W 12/W 78/W 53/J 22/W
MLS 070 043/061 039/066 040/067 038/049 025/045 025/054
2/U 77/W 31/U 11/B 55/W 32/J 12/W
4BQ 069 042/063 038/064 039/068 038/055 026/042 024/051
2/U 55/W 21/U 11/U 35/W 53/J 12/W
BHK 070 040/059 035/064 038/067 037/054 023/041 021/049
3/W 56/T 21/B 01/B 33/W 42/J 11/B
SHR 069 036/059 032/061 033/064 035/049 022/041 019/049
3/T 56/W 23/W 11/B 48/W 65/J 22/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page