295
FXUS65 KBYZ 061838
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1238 PM MDT THU AUG 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ELEVATED.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL KEEP SKIES HAZY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
AND WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE AIR QUALITY. FOR THE LATEST AIR
QUALITY, VISIT AIRNOW.GOV.
- WARM BUT TRENDING MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK, LEADING TO INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
WARM & DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK, COURTESY OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THAT IS FLAT
ENOUGH TO KEEP MONSOON MOISTURE WELL TO OUR SOUTH.
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 850MB COLD ADVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL MT
APPROACHING OUR NORTH. THE FRONT'S ARRIVAL PLUS DAYTIME MIXING
WILL YIELD BREEZY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS
PLUS WARM TEMPS AND LOW RHS (TEENS) WILL KEEP FIRE WX CONDITIONS
ELEVATED. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TIL 8PM OVER
EASTERN FIRE ZONES. BACKDOOR COOLING ARRIVES TONIGHT AND THIS
LEADS TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY FRIDAY, WITH LESS WIND (THOUGH
MIXED W-NW WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY ALONG FAR WESTERN
FOOTHILLS TOMORROW). THERMAL TROF DEEPENS OVER US SATURDAY,
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WIND SHIFT TO BREEZY N WINDS OVER A LARGER
AREA. SATURDAY IS ALSO LOOKING QUITE WARM (NEAR 100F) AND DRY
(8-12% RH, PER PWAT MIN ON THIS DAY), AND THUS IS THE NEXT DAY TO
EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO WIND SPEEDS AND MAGNITUDE OF LOW RHS,
SO SOMETHING TO MONITOR. SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER AND MORE
HUMID, BUT WITH TEMPS STILL IN THE 90S AND RHS IN THE TEENS. ALL
TOLD, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ELEVATED THRU THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE BE CAREFUL NOT TO SPARK A FIRE!
IT APPEARS THAT NEXT WEEK WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN PLAINS
AND PERHAPS MONSOON MOISTURE. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
SHOWING PWATS RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL AND POSSIBLY NEAR AN INCH
BY TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING
OFF THE PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THE MAIN RISK OF TS LOOKS TO INITIALLY BE IN OUR EAST MONDAY &
TUESDAY, BUT BY MIDWEEK THIS SHOULD EXTEND TO WESTERN AREAS AS
WELL. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO EMERGE BY
LATE WEEK, BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY THEN. IN
ADDITION TO THE INCREASING HUMIDITY WILL BE A GRADUAL DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S EARLY,
DROPPING TO THE 80S BY THURSDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HAZY SKIES
AND OCCASIONAL SURGES OF POORER AIR QUALITY W/ ANY FRONTAL
PASSAGES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THERE IS A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT
OF SMOKE BEING PRODUCED BY THE FIRES OVER THE PACNW.
JKL
AVIATION
SMOKE WILL FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL WORK SMOKE INTO EASTERN MT WITH NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND IT PUSHING SMOKE SOUTH. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
REDUCTIONS DOWN TO MVFR FOR KLVM, KBIL AND KSHR. SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED BY SMOKE. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 057/093 061/098 064/095 063/091 063/090 063/087 061/082
00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W 22/W
LVM 050/095 056/095 057/093 055/092 055/091 055/087 053/083
00/K 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U 11/U 12/T
HDN 053/095 055/099 060/095 058/092 059/091 059/089 057/084
00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 10/U 13/W 33/W
MLS 055/090 056/095 061/093 059/089 062/089 061/086 059/083
00/K 00/U 00/U 11/B 11/U 13/T 34/T
4BQ 056/094 059/097 065/095 062/090 063/090 063/087 061/083
00/K 00/U 00/B 01/B 11/B 24/T 44/T
BHK 051/088 055/094 059/093 056/087 058/088 056/085 056/081
00/K 00/U 00/B 11/B 32/T 24/W 44/W
SHR 051/095 056/097 059/095 058/092 059/090 058/087 056/082
00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 13/T 34/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 117.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 123>131.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 132-133.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 274-284.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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