289
FXUS65 KBYZ 270708
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
108 AM MDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE
RIVER FLOWS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES ARE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/WESTERN MONTANA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL/WESTERN WYOMING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (WIND GUSTS) AND MODERATE RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE FORECAST.
- POTENTIAL FOR COOLER AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TUESDAY...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TROUGHING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND RIDGING TO OUR EAST KEEPING US IN
SOUTHEAST FLOW. TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S F WITH DAILY FEW TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCES (15-30%) ARE FOR MOUNTAIN AND
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS WITH STRONG WINDS OF GREATER THAN 50 KTS BEING
THE MAIN THREAT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS ENSEMBLES ARE
INDICATING THAT AS THE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST STARTS TO BREAK
DOWN, IT WILL LIFT NORTH AND BRING BETTER FORCING INTO THE REGION.
THIS MAY BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WAVE BEHIND IT THOUGH THIS IS
MORE UNCERTAIN. 60-90% PRECIPITATION CHANCES MOVE INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. THE BIGGEST QUESTION FOR SATURDAY IS HOW FAR EAST THE
PRECIPITATION SPREADS AS SOME MODELS KEEP IT CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS (70%), WHILE OTHERS BRING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 0.50 INCHES (30%). SUNDAY
BRINGS MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH 65% OF MODELS SHOWING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION WITH THE OTHER 35% INDICATING WIDESPREAD 0.25 INCHES
OF GREATER. PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30-60%) DECREASE MONDAY AS MOST
MODELS INDICATE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.
OVERALL, THERE IS A 40-70% CHANCE FOR GETTING GREATER THAN 0.50
INCHES OF RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH CHANCES INCREASING AS
YOU GO WEST.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S F. TORGERSON
AVIATION
06Z DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE OVER AND NEAR AREA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS (KLVM/KSHR)
THROUGH 09-10Z. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS
TO 30KTS. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE OVERNIGHT,
THOUGH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY (SE 40KTS @ 2KFT AGL) EAST
OF BILLINGS INTO THE DAKOTAS WHERE A LOW LEVEL JET HAS SET UP.
THESE ELEVATED SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL MIX OUT BETWEEN 16-18Z TODAY
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KTS, POSSIBLY A BIT STRONGER
ALONG THE EASTERN STATE LINE. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER 20Z. A FEW
THUNDESTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW FOR
PROB30 MENTION AT THIS TIME. ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD ONCE
AGAIN PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND NOT A
THREAT FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY REDUCTION. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 061/096 062/096 062/081 054/075 050/075 050/077
2/W 00/B 01/U 28/T 75/T 23/T 22/T
LVM 085 052/091 053/089 051/070 045/069 042/071 044/075
3/T 01/B 12/T 49/T 76/T 24/T 23/T
HDN 092 062/095 060/096 059/083 052/076 048/077 048/079
2/W 10/B 01/B 27/T 75/T 33/T 22/T
MLS 095 068/095 066/095 063/087 056/078 050/078 051/078
0/N 00/N 00/B 16/T 54/T 23/T 32/T
4BQ 091 066/092 065/093 061/085 055/078 050/078 051/078
0/N 00/N 01/B 36/T 43/T 24/T 33/T
BHK 092 063/093 062/091 059/085 053/080 049/078 049/078
0/N 00/N 00/N 17/T 53/T 34/T 43/T
SHR 087 053/090 053/091 052/079 045/074 042/075 043/076
3/T 11/B 01/B 17/T 55/T 25/T 34/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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