910
FXUS65 KBYZ 141510
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
910 AM MDT THU MAY 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING STRONG WEST WINDS TODAY; 60+ MPH
GUSTS LIKELY ALONG THE US-191 CORRIDOR FROM BIG TIMBER TO JUDITH
GAP, AND 35-50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS COULD CAUSE RAPID FIRE SPREAD.
- DRY AND STILL BREEZY FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH.
- TRENDING COOLER WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
(INCLUDING MOUNTAIN SNOW) SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
UPPER LEVEL TROF HAS LIFTED NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND TODAY
WE WILL BE UNDER A DRY/WINDY WESTERLY FLOW. CURRENT HIGH WIND
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT.
WE ARE SEEING 55-70 MPH GUSTS ALONG OUR WESTERN FOOTHILLS EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON, WITH LOWER GUSTS (AS
EXPECTED) IN THE GAP AREAS (LIVINGSTON/NYE), THOUGH EVEN FISHTAIL
IS GUSTING TO 57 MPH. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS ~50KTS AT 700MB ACROSS
OUR NW AND IT TOOK VERY LITTLE MIXING TO ACHIEVE HIGHER GUSTS. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT STRONGEST MIXED WINDS WILL OCCUR PRIOR TO
18Z. EXPECT A WINDY AFTERNOON BUT WITH GUSTS MORE ON THE ORDER OF
40-50 MPH. EASTERN AREAS WILL SEE MOSTLY 35-45 MPH GUSTS.
HAVE ADJUSTED MORNING WINDS PER CURRENT CONDITIONS AND KEPT A
STEADY DECREASE AFTER 18Z. FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH
NORTHERN MONTANA. THIS BROUGHT DRY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
STRONG WIND GUSTS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING. BEHIND
THIS PUSH OF PRECIPITATION, STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND QUICKLY RISING
PRESSURE WILL CREATE BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS ACROSS THIS SAME AREA.
GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (FROM BIG
TIMBER TO LIVINGSTON THROUGH HARLOWTON) WITH GUSTS 60-70 MPH
POSSIBLE. AREAS EAST (THROUGH CARBON, SOUTHWEST YELLOWSTONE AND
MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES) ARE EXPECTED TO SEE GUSTS 45-60 MPH. THE
TIMING FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH THIS MORNING,
GENERALLY DECREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE COOLER, BUT STILL WARM AND DRY. WITH
GREEN UP UNDERWAY, THE CONCERN FOR FIRE SPREAD IS LOW. HOWEVER,
GIVEN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, PEOPLE SHOULD STILL USE CAUTION AND
NOT CAUSE A SPARK.
LOOKING AT FRIDAY, WESTERLY FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL CREATE
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH GUSTS MAINLY IN THE 25-40 MPH RANGE
(STRONGEST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MT). LATE SATURDAY, ENSEMBLES BRING
IN TROUGHING, BUT ARE DIFFERING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW WHICH
COULD MAKE A DIFFERENCE ON PRECIPITATION TOTALS. ENSEMBLES DO
GIVE THE REGION BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION WITH AROUND 1+ INCHES
THROUGH SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, TOTALS RANGES FROM 0.4-0.8 INCHES. CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST ARE LIKELY, BUT THERE IS HOPE FOR APPRECIABLE
PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S THROUGH SATURDAY, COOLING TO THE
40S AND 50S THROUGH TUESDAY. TS
AVIATION
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT AIRFIELDS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 50 KNOTS, STRONGEST OVER THE
FOOTHILLS (KLVM, K6S0, AND K3HT) DURING THE MORNING. LOOK FOR
WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING (AFTER 00Z FRIDAY). WHILE BRIEF,
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE (SLIGHT CHANCE)
DUE TO BLOWING DUST TODAY, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. BT/ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 048/071 041/073 043/054 036/053 035/063 041/066
0/N 00/N 00/B 46/W 56/T 32/W 13/W
LVM 070 041/066 036/068 033/046 028/049 029/059 035/063
0/N 00/N 01/E 99/T 76/T 31/B 34/T
HDN 075 044/072 037/075 042/057 035/053 033/063 037/067
0/N 00/N 00/B 15/W 66/W 42/W 12/W
MLS 074 047/071 038/074 046/062 036/053 034/061 038/067
0/N 00/N 00/B 33/W 56/W 42/W 12/W
4BQ 073 042/071 037/075 046/061 036/050 033/059 037/065
0/N 00/U 00/B 23/W 67/W 52/W 12/W
BHK 072 043/070 036/072 044/061 034/050 031/058 035/065
0/N 00/N 00/B 56/W 67/W 63/W 12/W
SHR 075 038/070 035/074 038/053 030/048 029/059 033/064
0/N 00/U 00/B 17/T 87/T 42/T 13/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 29-34-42-63-141-172-228-235.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
65-66.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONE 68.
WY...NONE.
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