475
FXUS65 KBYZ 241919
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
119 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY. A FEW WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
MAINLY OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL MONTANA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL CAUSE MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT AND
INCREASED RIVER FLOWS. NO FLOODING IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. STAY TUNED.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL EXIST EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S TODAY, 80S TO LOWER 90S MONDAY, AND
UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TUESDAY. WITH THIS, A FEW DAILY RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S, ALONG WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE (MODERATE
CHANCE) OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. THESE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CAUSE MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT AND SUBSEQUENT RISES ON AREA STREAMS AND
RIVERS THROUGH THE WEEK. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME, HIGHER FLOWS COMBINED WITH COLD WATER TEMPERATURES COULD BE
HAZARDOUS TO THOSE RECREATING NEAR WATERWAYS.
THIS WEEK WILL START OUT MOSTLY DRY FOR MANY LOCATIONS. TODAY,
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MONTANA- WYOMING STATE LINE. WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, THE MAIN THREAT IS SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 40
MPH) AND POSSIBLY A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO (LOW CHANCE). MONDAY,
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH BACKING FLOW ALOFT
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTH- EASTERN/CENTRAL WYOMING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AGAIN, THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IS SUDDEN GUSTY WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH) AND
LIGHTNING.
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY, THE WEATHER FORECAST GETS MORE ACTIVE WITH
DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
(BEST CHANCES NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS). THIS IS THANKS TO
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO AND
STALL OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM. WHILE THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL INDUCE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER EASTERN MONTANA THAT WILL ADVECT MUCH MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION (PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.75
TO 1.10 INCHES, GREATEST OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA), THE CORE OF
THE SYSTEM MAY BE A BIT TOO FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SUPPORT HIGHER
END LIFT AND SHEAR. THIS COULD BE AN ISSUE THAT LIMITS THE
EXTENT, AND STRENGTH, OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP. WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL WEATHER PATTERN, MODELS TODAY HAVE COME INTO A BIT
BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EJECTING NORTH THROUGH/NEAR OUR AREA AS IT PHASES BACK IN, IN SOME
FASHION, WITH A TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THIS WOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION, THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE TROUGH
PASSING THROUGH OUR REGION COULD INDUCE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. THE ONE THING
THAT HAS A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IS THAT THE HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL FAVOR MORE EFFICIENT RAIN
THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS SPRING. HOWEVER, THE SCATTERED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION WILL CAUSE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO VARY FROM PLACE
TO PLACE.
IN ADDITION TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE SOUTH-EASTERLY
WINDS OVER SOUTH-EASTERN MONTANA TUESDAY INTO THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S TO 40S MPH,
LIKELY STRONGEST WEDNESDAY. ARENDS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ISOLATED
(10-20%) THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA,
CRAZY, AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AFTER 18Z MONDAY LASTING THROUGH THE
EVENING. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/090 056/093 060/085 057/085 057/088 057/078 053/082
01/U 10/B 43/T 32/T 32/T 44/T 22/T
LVM 047/086 049/084 050/076 048/078 048/078 046/070 045/075
02/T 24/T 56/T 44/T 45/T 36/T 23/T
HDN 049/090 054/093 059/087 056/086 056/088 055/079 050/082
00/U 10/B 22/T 22/T 22/T 34/T 32/W
MLS 051/092 061/095 066/091 062/087 060/090 059/081 054/080
00/U 00/N 12/T 22/T 12/T 44/T 42/W
4BQ 050/091 059/093 064/088 059/085 058/088 057/079 053/079
00/U 00/N 12/T 23/T 23/T 44/T 32/T
BHK 050/092 056/093 060/089 060/086 057/087 057/081 052/079
00/U 00/N 11/N 12/T 12/T 45/T 43/T
SHR 044/086 047/090 050/082 048/083 048/086 047/075 044/078
11/U 11/N 23/T 24/T 33/T 35/T 24/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page