346
FXUS65 KBYZ 170914
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
314 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2018
SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND THU
NOT MUCH OF CONSEQUENCE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL OVER OUR REGION AND WILL LEAD TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. THURSDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S, AND PROBABLY SOME LOWER 70S. A
CANADIAN CLIPPER MOVING THRU SASKATCHEWAN/ONTARIO THU NIGHT WILL
BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO EASTERN MT WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOPING. THIS WILL LEAD TO A COOLER DAY ON FRIDAY (SEE
BELOW), BUT OTHERWISE HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. BT
LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE
WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MOSTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN OUR REGION.
THE PERIOD WILL START WITH A COOLER DAY FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGE, FOLLOWING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PASSAGE THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING AGAIN OVER
THE WEEKEND, AHEAD OF RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR FRONT BY
SUN/MON BUT OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE A BIT AT THIS POINT, WITH
ECMWF SUPPORTING RIDGING CROSSING THE REGION. THIS IS ALSO WHERE
ENSEMBLES SHOW MORE TEMPERATURE SPREAD, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY.
UPPER RIDGE FINALLY SHIFTS EAST BY MONDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AHEAD OF PACIFIC TROF APPROACHING THE
COAST. THIS AIDS A WEAK LOW OVER SOUTHWEST CONUS TO LIFT NORTH
AND COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS BY TUE OR TUE NIGHT. THIS IS THE ONLY
CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. HAVE CONTINUED ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS AND WEAK PIECES OF ENERGY SLIDE INTO THE REGION.
FURTHER OUT, MODELS APPEAR TO TRANSITION TO FASTER ZONAL FLOW AND
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. PACIFIC
FLOW SHOULD TEMPS ON THE MILD SIDE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. AAG
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT. AAG
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 038/069 038/059 037/065 041/066 038/061 038/064
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 061 035/067 036/060 036/066 039/066 035/062 037/062
0/U 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 065 035/070 036/058 036/065 038/066 037/061 038/063
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 066 037/068 038/056 034/061 038/061 034/059 037/062
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 065 037/065 038/057 033/063 038/065 034/061 037/063
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 065 037/066 037/054 030/057 036/061 030/056 034/058
0/U 00/U 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 062 033/064 036/057 035/064 037/065 034/061 036/062
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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