018
FXUS65 KBYZ 251936
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
136 PM MDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S) CONTINUE
THIS WEEK.
- CHANCE OF RAIN OR MIXED PRECIP IN FAR EAST/SOUTHEAST MT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
- NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS A SHOT OF RAIN/MTN SNOW TO AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, AS WELL AS WINDY
CONDITIONS.
- MAINLY DRY AND BREEZY AT TIMES LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER UTAH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE TRACK IS A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST AND SOUTH THAN PROGGS FROM 24 HRS AGO. THIS KEEPS THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP FURTHER EAST AND CLOSER TO THE MONTANA/DAKOTAS
BORDER. PRECIPITATION IN THE SE CORNER OF MT SHOULD PICK UP BY
EVENING AND NOSE NORTHWARD INTO FALLON AND POSSIBLY CUSTER
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...AND MAY BECOME MIXED
DRIZZLE/RAIN/SNOW OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH AREAS OF FOG. ROAD
SURFACE TEMPS MAY DROP TO THE LOWER 30S SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EITHER. THOSE WITH TRAVEL OR COMMUTES IN
SOUTHEAST MONTANA MONDAY MORNING SHOULD PLAN FOR WET ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY AT TIMES. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LESS THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID PRECIP. AREAS FURTHER WEST MAY SEE
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATIFORM CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.
A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AGGRESSIVELY PUSH INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO START THE WORK WEEK, IMPACTING OUR REGION
LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED
TO HAVE A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT ROTATES EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR
REGION. RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN
ZONES MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST A STRONG DOWNSLOPE SIGNATURE
TUESDAY AS THE BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND LIFT SWEEP ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA. SO PRECIP MAY LIMITED IN THE IMMEDIATE SHADOW OF THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE PICKING UP AROUND YELLOWSTONE COUNTY AS FLOW
BECOMES REMOVED FROM THE DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS. WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED, WITH WESTERLY GUSTS 35-45 MPH COMMON TUESDAY
FOR MANY AREAS AND A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH POSSIBLE.
CURRENTLY, THE AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING AT LEAST
0.25" OF PRECIP IS OVER THE BEARTOOTHS (80%) AND NORTHER ROSEBUD
COUNTY (57%). OVER THE MOUNTAINS, SNOW IS FAVORED OVER WEST
ASPECTS OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS, WITH A
65-80% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 3 INCHES ABOVE 7500 FT. THE FOOTHILLS,
SUCH AT RED LODGE MAY NOT SEE MUCH IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION,
THOUGH A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. THE
CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHERN BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS HAS DROPPED, WITH JUST A 35% CHANCE OF AROUND 1"
ACCUMULATION ON WEST SLOPES.
FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. THIS MAY BRING IN SOME
OCCASIONAL ISOLATED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
NEARBY AREAS, BUT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY AND JUST BREEZY AT TIMES. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN AROUND OR
JUST UNDER SEASON AVERAGES. BT
AVIATION
A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND
MVFR CEILINGS TO FAR SOUTH-EASTERN MONTANA TODAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
COULD IMPACT LOCATIONS AROUND KMLS, KBHK, AND K97M. WHILE
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY (MEDIUM CHANCE). WEST OF THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION, FOG
AND/OR LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY
ALONG RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR THE FOOTHILLS (MEDIUM CHANCE). WHILE
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, THIS COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KBIL, KSHR, AND
KLVM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 030/052 035/056 034/057 032/054 031/046 030/051 032/055
00/U 45/W 00/U 00/U 12/W 32/W 11/B
LVM 022/052 029/048 023/052 025/054 024/048 023/051 025/053
00/B 66/W 00/U 00/B 12/W 32/W 11/B
HDN 031/058 032/058 029/059 027/058 028/049 028/053 029/058
00/B 48/W 00/U 00/U 01/E 22/W 01/B
MLS 034/048 031/050 031/057 029/056 030/050 031/052 032/056
21/E 48/W 10/U 00/U 01/E 33/W 10/B
4BQ 034/047 031/055 031/058 030/061 033/054 034/053 034/059
41/E 24/W 00/U 00/U 01/B 33/W 11/B
BHK 027/043 023/050 027/056 025/058 027/051 028/051 029/056
42/S 12/W 10/U 00/U 12/W 43/W 11/B
SHR 027/057 028/056 026/058 025/061 027/053 026/053 028/058
10/B 23/W 00/U 00/U 01/B 32/W 01/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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