233
FXUS65 KBYZ 102331
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
431 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST WEEK, BUT STILL 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- A CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW WEDNESDAY (30-60%) FOR THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA INTO BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. THE CHANCE FOR
GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW REMAINS BELOW 20%.
- AFTER A BREAK DURING THE WORK WEEK, GUSTY WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
MAY RETURN TO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
QUIET WEATHER DAY UNDERNEATH FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THE SNOW
COVER OVER/NEAR WHEATLAND COUNTY HELD BACK TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY
TODAY AND IT IS CURRENTLY BELOW FREEZING AT MELVILLE, HARLOWTON
AND JUDITH GAP. DOWNSLOPE WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN TAME, SO
THERE SEEMS TO BE A LOW RISK (20%) OF FOG ALONG THE MUSSELSHELL
VALLEY TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO THIS AREA FROM
06-15Z, AND HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SOME THRU TOMORROW. JKL
DISCUSSION
THROUGH TUESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
BRING A MOISTURE FETCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN US. MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO
THESE AREAS. THE CHANCE FOR GETTING GREATER THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW
REMAINS BELOW 20% FOR THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS WITH A
20-50% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 3 INCHES. THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS
HAVE A 10% CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF SNOWFALL.
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES OF 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. STARTING SUNDAY, AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST CREATES MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST. OVERALL, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR WEST
LOOKS TO BE PERSISTENT SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THIS PATTERN COULD EJECT
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING SOME
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS BUT AT THE VERY LEAST NEXT WEEKS WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS MORE
ACTIVE.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S AND LOW 50S THROUGH
SATURDAY BEFORE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES STARTING SUNDAY. TORGERSON
AVIATION
THERE IS ABOUT A 10-20% CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE WILL BE AREAS THAT HAVE SNOW COVER,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS (K3HT, KMLS, KBHK). TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 024/048 025/052 029/054 030/052 032/052 030/055 032/052
00/B 00/U 00/U 01/E 11/E 11/B 23/W
LVM 024/046 026/050 028/049 029/047 031/049 031/052 032/047
01/B 10/U 00/B 01/E 12/W 22/W 34/J
HDN 022/048 022/053 024/056 026/054 029/054 028/057 029/055
00/B 00/U 00/U 01/E 11/E 11/B 24/W
MLS 023/046 021/047 024/050 026/050 027/049 026/052 029/048
00/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 01/E 10/B 14/W
4BQ 024/049 024/051 027/054 027/052 029/053 029/057 032/054
00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/E 00/B 13/W
BHK 021/049 021/048 024/050 025/049 025/049 025/051 028/047
00/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 01/E 00/B 24/W
SHR 019/048 023/052 024/054 023/051 025/052 026/056 028/053
01/B 11/U 00/U 00/B 01/E 11/B 24/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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