783
FXUS65 KBYZ 031906
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
106 PM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY SUNNY AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM BILLINGS EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
- SUNNY AND WARM ON FRIDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A LATE DAY COLD FRONT
SATURDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM THE LOWER 70S SUNDAY TO THE
UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
PERSISTENT UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN IN THE AREA FOR THE PAST 5 DAYS
CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER OVER OUR VICINITY. IT IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND IS SLOWLY
DRIFTING TO THE EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW
PUSHED A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
SUBSIDENT DRIER AIR WITH THE HIGH WILL KEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
LOW TODAY, MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS, WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF SUN THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE
70S.
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. RETURN
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL TAP INTO PLAINS MOISTURE AND
ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS MOISTURE
ADVECTION, AIDED BY A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET, WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA, POSSIBLY
SHERIDAN COUNTY WYOMING, BEFORE SUNRISE TOMORROW. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL DIMINISH AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES MID
TO LATE MORNING LEAVING THE SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE ADVECTING LOW
LEVEL WINDS IN PLACE. BY AFTERNOON A PROGRESSIVE TROF WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH THE INCREASED
MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE IS EXPECTED TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. STRONGER STORMS LOOK TO GET GOING IN THE BILLINGS
VICINITY AROUND 1PM AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD. SEVERE POTENTIAL
WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG THE AXIS OF STRONGEST MOISTURE ADVECTION,
ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE US-212 CORRIDOR FROM CROW AGENCY EASTWARD
ACROSS SE MONTANA. MAIN THUNDERSTORM THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL
(GOLF BALL+), STRONG WIND GUSTS (65+ MPH) AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT IS PRESENT, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FROM BROADUS EAST ACROSS S. CARTER COUNTY. KEEP
WEATHER AWARE ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK
SHELTER IF STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY FOR A CALMER DAY
CONVECTION WISE. A DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
INTENSIFY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN
INCREASING WIND GUSTS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL DRY OUT THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE HELPING TO KEEP THOSE PRECIPITATION/CONVECTION CHANCES
VERY LOW EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE INCREASED DOWNSLOPE FLOW HAS
ALSO BOOSTED TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. LATEST NBM IS SHOWING MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL DAY WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS PUSHING
TEMPERATURES TOWARD THE LOWER 90S (A BIT COOLER THAN YESTERDAYS
FORECAST). A LATE DAY COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SE MONTANA. THERE IS
CERTAINLY ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR TO PROVIDE A SHOT AT SEVERE STORMS
LATE IN THE DAY SATURDAY. DETERMINISTIC AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLES SHOW
THE BEST INGREDIENTS/POTENTIAL TO RESIDE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA INTO THE W. DAKOTAS. HOWEVER, THE ML/AI SEVERE
THREAT GUIDANCE IS PUSHING HIGHER POTENTIALS WELL INTO C. MONTANA.
BOTTOM LINE, IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING BE WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO GET TO A
SAFE LOCATION IF STORMS DO DEVELOP. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER SYSTEM DRIVING IT WHICH WILL
HAVE A BIG INFLUENCE ON SATURDAYS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SO STAY
TUNED TO THE FORECAST.
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY THE AREA IS UNDER A PACIFIC
TROF PATTERN WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 65 TO 75 RANGE FOR
SUNDAY, RISING TOWARD 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
MID-80S FOR TUESDAY. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (15 PERCENT)
AND A WEAK THUNDERSTORM (10 PERCENT) LATER THIS EVENING. THE
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE REST OF
SOUTH- CENTRAL MONTANA TONIGHT BEFORE SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE
AREA THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE OVER
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LA/PM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/077 053/087 057/088 054/072 047/081 055/088 056/084
14/T 10/U 00/B 24/T 21/U 11/B 23/T
LVM 047/075 044/086 050/084 045/066 038/077 046/080 046/077
24/T 10/U 01/B 45/T 21/U 12/T 25/T
HDN 051/079 049/088 055/090 052/073 045/081 053/089 054/086
15/T 30/U 00/B 14/T 31/U 11/B 22/T
MLS 049/078 051/085 058/092 057/074 048/079 057/090 059/087
04/T 40/U 00/U 21/B 31/U 21/U 21/B
4BQ 050/079 050/085 057/095 058/074 048/079 057/091 059/089
26/T 60/U 00/U 21/B 31/U 21/U 22/W
BHK 046/077 048/081 054/090 057/076 047/076 053/088 057/088
14/T 60/U 00/N 31/B 31/U 22/T 22/T
SHR 046/077 046/087 049/093 050/073 043/080 049/088 051/086
15/T 40/U 00/B 14/T 42/T 21/U 13/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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