607
FXUS65 KBYZ 200644
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1244 AM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY WARM AND MAINLY DRY INTO THURSDAY, WITH OCCASIONAL
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE
ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS.
- A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, WINDY
CONDITIONS, AND PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON EXACT IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH MONDAY)...
HIGH PRESSURE AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW SITS JUST OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER OUR REGION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 60S AND 70S, WARMEST ON THURSDAY.
LOW TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 50S
AS WELL, COLDEST TONIGHT (TUESDAY NIGHT) BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE TODAY. WE MAY SEE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POP UP OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY (ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS) FROM TIME TO TIME, BUT
WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT. LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE OVER THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM. WITH THIS, SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN
THE 30S TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE FORECAST. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THIS TIME, WINDY CONDITIONS
MAY AFFECT PORTIONS OF SHERIDAN COUNTY, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
SHERIDAN.
BY FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND INTO OUR REGION, SYNCING UP WITH ANOTHER TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS SUGGEST AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
WHILE ENSEMBLES ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TIMING,
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO OTHER DETAILS. STRONG
UPPER DYNAMICS AND INSTABILITY MAY PRODUCE POCKETS OR EVEN A
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED LINE OF MODERATE RAIN/MTN SNOW INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. AS FAR AS THE WIND POTENTIAL GOES, THERE IS CURRENTLY A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF SEEING WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ACROSS THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. FOR PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS GREATEST OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL/WESTERN MONTANA (70+ PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION).
CANNOT RULE OUT A LITTLE EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL. SNOW LEVELS ARE
PROGGED TO START OUT AROUND 10,000 FEET FRIDAY, DROPPING TO
AROUND 5,000 FEET SATURDAY...THOUGH MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
HAVE ENDED BY THEN. AS FAR AS AMOUNTS GO, THE CHANCE OF SEEING
0.50 INCHES OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION (RAIN OR MELTED SNOW) REMAINS
50 TO 80 PERCENT OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, DECREASING WELL BELOW
50 PERCENT OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA. THE CHANCE OF SEEING SIX
OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IS 50 PERCENT IN THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH
MOUNTAINS AND LOWER IN THE SURROUNDING MOUNTAIN RANGES.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE SPLIT FLOW TROUGHS MOVE OUT FOR THE
WEEKEND LEAVING A ZONAL FLOW IN THEIR WAKE OVER OUR REGION. THUS,
EXPECT A DRYING TREND SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. DAYTIME HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE, IN THE 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BT
AVIATION
VFR CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WITH EASTERLY WINDS WORKING INTO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS,
INCLUDING KLVM. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (15% OR LESS) OF SHOWERS
OVER THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066 038/066 043/073 047/063 037/054 032/053 031/051
0/U 00/U 00/U 19/T 80/B 00/U 00/B
LVM 069 035/069 039/073 040/054 026/050 025/054 026/053
0/U 00/B 00/U 4+/W 80/U 01/B 11/B
HDN 068 035/070 039/075 045/067 035/055 029/056 028/054
0/U 00/U 00/U 08/W 80/B 00/U 00/B
MLS 068 037/069 045/074 050/070 037/051 030/053 031/052
0/U 00/U 00/U 03/W 71/N 00/U 00/B
4BQ 070 038/072 049/077 055/074 038/052 032/057 033/055
0/U 00/U 00/U 03/W 51/B 00/U 00/U
BHK 070 034/068 043/078 049/077 033/050 027/054 027/052
0/U 00/U 00/U 01/N 51/N 00/U 11/B
SHR 071 035/072 041/075 045/068 032/052 026/057 028/056
0/U 00/U 00/U 05/W 71/B 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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