081
FXUS65 KBYZ 011059
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
459 AM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT & DRY TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT; SOME
AUGUST TEMPERATURE RECORDS WILL BE CHALLENGED. PROTECT YOURSELF
FROM THE HEAT.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO
THE HEAT, DRYNESS AND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT PRODUCING BREEZY
CONDITIONS INTO SUNDAY.
- STRONGER COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS MUCH COOLER TEMPS MONDAY
& TUESDAY.
- INCREASED SURFACE-BASED SMOKE MAY REDUCE AIR QUALITY SUNDAY &
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
AS A LOW DEEPENS ALONG THE BC COAST, A SURGE OF HOT & DRY AIR FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WILL PUSH TEMPS OVER 100F TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.
LOFTED SMOKE MAY HAVE A SLIGHT IMPACT, BUT 700MB TEMPS OF +17C TO
+20C SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 102-107F RANGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
DAILY RECORDS ARE LIKELY TO BE BROKEN, AND SOME AUGUST TEMPERATURE
RECORDS WILL BE CHALLENGED.
AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT.
PLEASE PROTECT YOURSELF FROM THE HEAT! FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE CRITICAL DUE TO THE HEAT AND VERY LOW HUMIDITY (10% OR
LESS) AND SOMEWHAT BREEZY S-SW WINDS OVER WESTERN AREAS. A PERIOD
OF LEE SIDE TROFFING (W/ VERY POOR RH RECOVERY) AND AN EVENTUAL
WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SHIFT TO BREEZY NW-N WINDS LATE TONIGHT
WILL EXTEND THE FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY.
TOMORROW WILL NOT BE AS HOT BUT STILL QUITE DRY. PLEASE TAKE CARE
NOT TO SPARK A FIRE!
A STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
A MUCH COOLER MONDAY & TUESDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS (MAINLY
WEST & NORTH) ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS SUNDAY
NIGHT, AND CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS W/ THE UPPER TROF AXIS
MONDAY. EITHER WAY, THE TROF WILL NOT DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
BRING MEANINGFUL PRECIP.
SMOKE IMPACTS: HAZY SKIES DUE TO LOFTED WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL
CONTINUE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE SEE AN INCREASE IN SURFACE BASED
SMOKE PER SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT, AND ESPECIALLY
BEHIND THE STRONGER FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS OF HIGH
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME AND WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED, A NOTABLE BREAK FROM THE HEAT (INCLUDING
MUCH COOLER NIGHTS) IS ON TRACK FOR MONDAY & TUESDAY. LOOK FOR
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ON THESE DAYS. THERE SEEMS TO BE
MODEL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO HOW LONG THE FLOW STAYS
NORTHWESTERLY, BUT EVENTUALLY WE WILL TRANSITION TO FLAT RIDGING
AND WARMER TEMPS THROUGH THE 2ND HALF OF THE WEEK. LOOK FOR 80S
WEDNESDAY AND 90S THURSDAY & FRIDAY...THOUGH SOME ENSEMBLES SHOW
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT AT SOME POINT AND THIS UNCERTAINTY IS
SHOWN IN THE CLUSTER ANALYSES. EITHER WAY, THE FLATTENED FLOW WILL
KEEP MONSOON MOISTURE SUPPRESSED AND GREATER PLAINS MOISTURE TO
OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THUS A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THRU
FRIDAY.
BELOW IS A SUMMARY OF SATURDAY FORECAST HIGHS, WITH DAILY AND
AUGUST RECORDS, AT EACH OF OUR MAIN CLIMATE STATIONS.
SITE 8/1 FORECAST 8/1 RECORD AUG RECORD
BILLINGS 105 102 (2008) 105 (8/2/2024)
LIVINGSTON 104 101 (2000) 105 (8/5/1961)
MILES CITY 105 104 (2008) 110 (8/7/1995)
SHERIDAN 104 103 (2008) 106 (8/7/1983)
BAKER 101 99 (2022) 108 (8/12/2018)
JKL
AVIATION
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE
TO REDUCE SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY AT TIMES, AND MAY REDUCE SURFACE
VISIBILITY THIS MORNING (UNTIL 16Z) TO AS LOW AS 6SM. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL VARIABLE THERMAL WINDS GUSTS TO 20KTS DURING THE HEAT
OF THE DAY TODAY. MORE ORGANIZED SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20 TO
30KTS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS, SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD KBIL BY EARLY EVENING. COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST,
WITH CONTINUED GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KTS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING, SPREADING EAST OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 106 071/094 062/075 053/080 056/090 061/094 064/093
0/G 00/K 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 104 060/094 051/075 045/079 049/089 054/093 056/091
0/N 00/K 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 106 069/096 059/078 050/083 052/091 057/097 061/094
0/G 00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 105 075/093 063/078 051/080 055/090 061/095 063/093
0/G 00/K 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 102 074/094 065/080 054/080 058/089 062/094 065/093
0/G 00/K 10/U 10/U 21/U 00/U 01/U
BHK 102 068/094 059/080 048/078 051/087 057/094 060/093
0/G 00/N 20/N 10/U 00/U 10/U 11/U
SHR 104 066/098 058/079 048/081 052/089 055/095 058/093
0/G 00/K 00/U 00/U 01/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT TONIGHT FOR ZONES
29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM
MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES 117-123>128.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONES 129>132.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT
MDT TONIGHT FOR ZONE 199.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONES 274-284.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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