888
FXUS65 KBYZ 140717
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1217 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- GUSTY WINDS RETURN TO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THIS WEEKEND; UP TO A 50% CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH AT LIVINGSTON.
- BECOMING COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY...
A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
10-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE 50S F.
WINDS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
MONDAY AS THE FOOTHILLS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES INTO THE 5-10
MB RANGE AND 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 30-40 KT RANGE.
LIVINGSTON HAS A 50% CHANCE OF GETTING A WIND GUST OVER 50 MPH.
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE US-191 CORRIDOR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG WITH
MAXIMUM WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S MPH.
THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO GET MORE ACTIVE STARTING TUESDAY. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL ENTER A COOLER PATTERN WITH MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THERE IS ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION, THOUGH DETAILS
ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS AND DETERMINISTIC
MODELS INDICATE A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT THE DATA CURRENTLY AVAILABLE, ONE
THING THAT COULD LIMIT THIS SYSTEMS IMPACT ON SOUTHEAST MONTANA IS
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR THE WYOMING/MONTANA BORDER.
THIS SETUP WOULD PUSH MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH AND
EAST. THAT BEING SAID, THIS SYSTEM IS STILL AT LEAST 4 DAYS OUT,
SO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS. THERE IS A 20-60% CHANCE OF
GETTING GREATER THAN 0.1 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE CHANCE
FOR GREATER THAN 0.25 INCHES DECREASES TO 10-30%. PRECIPITATION
TYPES ARE ALSO UNCERTAIN WITH RAIN, SNOW, AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX
BEING POSSIBLE. THE CHANCE OF GETTING GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF
SNOWFALL IS 10-40% WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES BEING IN FALLON
COUNTY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER LOW MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS. GIVEN HOW
FAR OUT IT IS, NOT MUCH MORE CAN BE SAID ABOUT IT AT THIS POINT.
TORGERSON
AVIATION
PERIODS OF BRISK WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE KLVM VICINITY THROUGH
SATURDAY. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS 30-40 KTS AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 034/058 031/060 033/053 023/039 020/041 021/040
0/B 11/B 20/U 15/W 22/J 43/J 11/B
LVM 050 035/053 033/054 034/046 023/039 021/036 021/037
0/N 11/E 10/U 37/W 33/J 42/J 22/J
HDN 057 029/060 027/062 030/053 020/041 018/041 019/042
0/B 11/B 20/U 16/W 43/J 44/J 22/J
MLS 053 028/053 027/056 032/049 020/033 015/032 013/034
0/B 00/B 20/U 05/W 52/J 23/J 11/E
4BQ 055 029/057 028/059 034/054 023/039 019/036 015/039
0/B 00/B 10/U 05/W 32/J 33/J 11/B
BHK 051 027/052 027/054 030/045 020/032 013/029 009/031
0/B 00/B 10/U 16/W 63/J 33/J 11/B
SHR 054 026/057 025/058 029/050 018/041 015/036 013/038
0/B 00/B 00/U 27/W 33/J 54/J 22/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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