787
FXUS65 KBYZ 281911
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
111 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- SMOKE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEK. PERIODS OF
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY ARE POSSIBLE.
- STRONG ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH.
- DAILY CHANCE (10-30%) FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER
THE CONUS PRODUCING HOT TEMPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST INTO THE
MIDWEST. UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE IS A GOOD FETCH OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WORKING INTO OUR REGION. THIS WILL MEAN A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK. MODELS, INCLUDING THE CAMS, DO NOT
TYPICALLY HANDLE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORMS IN MONSOONAL FLOW.
WILL THEREFORE RELY HEAVILY ON AN SHOTGUN/ENSEMBLE APPROACH USING
HREF/REFS TOOLS.
FOR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING...EXPECT TO SEE CURRENT
CONVECTION OVER OUR EAST GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE DAKOTAS. IN THE
MEANTIME, ANOTHER IMPULSE FROM THE SOUTHWEST ALONG WITH
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS (BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO OUR
CENTRAL ZONES THEN WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. MODELS SHOW A
DECENT PROBABILITY OF PEAK WIND GUSTS 45 TO 60 MPH WITH THE
STRONGER CELLS. THIS IMPACTS MAINLY THE FOOTHILLS TO YELLOWSTONE
COUNTY THIS EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL, BUT THE MAIN
THREAT IS DEFINITELY WIND THIS EVENING. BETTER SURFACE CAPE IS
EXPECTED OVER OUR EAST TOMORROW (OVER 1250 J/KG), AND MODELS
SUGGEST STRONGER CELLS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN (PWATS OVER AN INCH)
AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AGAIN. SPC DOES HAVE OUR EASTERN
ZONES (MAINLY EAST OF BILLINGS) IN A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK
THREAT FOR WEDNESDAY.
WILDFIRE SMOKE CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE ACROSS THE REGION, THE MAIN
SOURCE BEING THE PACIFIC NW. THIS IS BRINGING REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY THAT INCLUDES PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. THE SMOKE HAS HAD AN EFFECT ON THE
ON DAILY HIGHS WITH TEMPERATURES BEING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
MODELS. BECAUSE OF THIS, HEAT RELATED IMPACTS ARE SOMEWHAT MUTED
AND WE WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY HEAT RELATED ALERTS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECASTS AND ENSEMBLE ANALYSIS IMPLIES A POSSIBLE
BREAKDOWN IN THE RIDGE LATE THIS WEEKEND. THE IMPLICATIONS ARE A
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MASS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO AN INCREASE
IN FIRE WEATHER RISKS BY SUNDAY DUE TO THIS "RIDGE CRASHER" WITH
INCREASED WIND AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. BT
AVIATION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS IS GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS OF 40 TO 50 KTS. SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES WILL
CONTINUE TO REDUCE SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED BELOW 10SM AT TIMES, WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR REDUCTIONS.
THUNDERSTORM TIMING
KLVM: 20Z-00Z
KBIL: 22Z-02Z
KSHR: LOW CHANCE
KMLS: LOW CHANCE
ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 066/096 065/096 064/098 066/104 068/095 060/081 055/086
21/K 42/T 20/U 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 058/092 056/094 056/097 059/102 059/094 050/082 047/085
22/T 22/T 20/U 00/G 00/N 20/U 00/U
HDN 065/098 064/096 062/099 065/106 068/097 060/083 054/088
21/K 42/W 21/U 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 069/101 068/094 064/099 067/105 073/097 064/084 056/087
22/T 43/T 21/U 00/G 00/U 10/U 00/U
4BQ 069/098 067/092 063/096 066/103 073/097 065/084 057/086
24/T 53/T 21/U 00/G 00/U 10/U 01/U
BHK 065/100 064/091 059/095 063/101 069/099 062/085 053/085
23/T 63/T 21/U 10/G 00/U 20/N 01/U
SHR 062/096 060/093 058/095 060/102 064/097 057/084 050/087
21/U 42/T 21/U 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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