230
FXUS65 KBYZ 242054
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
154 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTER COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS AGAIN TONIGHT AS COLD
ARCTIC AIR BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA.
- LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH 2 TO 5
INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG NORTH/EAST FACING FOOTHILLS/MOUNTAINS (RED
LODGE).
- STRONG FOOTHILL WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STRONG
CROSSWINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL PRESENT
TRAVEL IMPACTS DURING THIS PERIOD.
- MAINLY DRY WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
HIGHLITE DISCUSSION...MORE BITTER COLD WIND CHILLS FOR PORTIONS
OF SE MONTANA TONIGHT, COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THESE
AREAS FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON TOMORROW. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CONTEMPLATED WIND
HIGHLITES FOR WESTERN FOOTHILLS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HELD
OFF FOR NOW AS PROBABILITIES FOR 60+MPH HAVE STAYED 40% AND UNDER
AND HAD TO FORCE WINDS TO GET ABOVE GUIDANCE. THAT SAID THIS
MORNINGS ARCTIC RETREAT OVERACHIEVED BY A LOT OVER GUIDANCE AND
SUNDAY NIGHTS RETREAT WILL BE STRONGER, SO CURRENTLY HAVE GUSTS
JUST UNDER WARNING (BIG TIMBER) AND ADVISORY (LIVINGSTON-NYE)
CRITERIA. THE OTHER ISSUE MAY BE A PERIOD OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
FOR THESE WINDY AREAS THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH SNOW
FALLS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING ANYTHING FOR THIS GIVEN ITS STILL 24 HOURS OUT, BUT WILL
BE LOOKING CLOSELY AT WIND OR BLOWING SNOW HIGHLITES BETWEEN NOW
AND THEN.
SHORT TERM SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING
AROUND THE POLAR VORTEX WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY FOR
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES, WITH TEMPERATURES BUMPING INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY WEST. EAST OF BILLINGS A FEW
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW HAVE CROSSED THE AREA FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER ENERGY AND WARM ADVECTION PROVIDING
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. AS THE LOBE ARRIVES THIS EVENING COLD AIR WILL
WORK BACK INTO AREAS IT VACATED TODAY AND ISENTROPIC AND UPSLOPE
ASCENT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 WHERE 2 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS
FORECAST, WITH HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED FROM RED LODGE TO NYE ALONG
THE BEARTOOTH FRONT. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
THESE AREAS. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 INCHES
OR LESS ARE FORECAST, WITH AMOUNTS DECREASING AS YOU MOVE NORTH
AND EAST AWAY FROM I-90. CONTEMPLATED ADDING THE SHERIDAN
FOOTHILLS TO THE ADVISORY BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY A
LOW PROBABILITY (LESS THAN 15%) OF EXCEEDING 2 INCHES OUTSIDE OF
THE HIGHER ABERDEEN HILL AND STORY AREAS, SO HELD OFF FOR THIS
AREA.
NORTHERLY WINDS AND THE RE-INTRUSION OF COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF -20 TO -35 DEGREES AGAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
SE MONTANA. ISSUED COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CUSTER/FALLON/CARTER
COUNTIES TO COVER THIS. FURTHER WEST WIND CHILLS DOWN TO -20 CAN
BE EXPECTED AS AIR TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. BAKER SHOULD BE THE COLD
SPOT ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT AT AROUND -18 DEGREES.
SNOW SHOULD END LATE MORNING WITH THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
ENDING AT NOON. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE COLD WITH NOT TOO MUCH
WIND TO CONTEND WITH, SO OVERALL NOT A BAD AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY
OF SUN.
GUSTY FOOTHILLS WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST AND LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING,
DEEPENING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS ALONG WITH PRODUCING RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS
KEEPING WIND SPEEDS UNDER WIND HIGHLITE CRITERIA WITH JUST A 40%
CHANCE FOR REACHING 60 MPH IN LIVINGSTON/BIG TIMBER/NYE. SO, FOR
NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING WIND HIGHLITES. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOW FALLS TONIGHT MAY HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH BLOWING/DRIFTING
SNOW AS THE WINDS PICK UP. ADDED STRONGER MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW
TO THE FORECAST AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
SHOULD ENOUGH SNOW FALL THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS WILL OCCUR ONCE
THE WINDS PICK UP.
EXTENDED...RIDGING BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FROM THE WEST
AND MID- LEVEL WINDS DECREASE ENOUGH TO TAKE THE EDGE OFF THE
FOOTHILLS WINDS TO WEAKEN WELL BELOW IMPACTFUL LEVELS. BUT
DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL START A STRONG
WARMING AND DRYING TREND THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK AND
LIKELY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. LOOKING AT GOOD AGREEMENT FOR
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S CENTRAL AND WEST, WITH
20S/30S TUESDAY RISING INTO THE 40S BY LATE WEEK ACROSS SE
MONTANA. LONG RANGE FORECASTS SHOW A WARM AND DRY FORECAST
POSSIBLY PERSISTING THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY, SO ENJOY
THE COLD AND SNOW WHILE ITS HERE. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF KBIL THIS
MORNING BRINGING BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR. ANOTHER SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SNOW THIS AFTERNOON, LASTING INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECT REDUCTIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. INCREASING NW
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 KNOTS. EXPECT
WINDS TO QUICKLY DECREASE AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASSED. MOUNTAINS
WILL BE OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 902/014 008/038 025/045 024/046 026/047 027/047 030/053
62/S 00/Q 00/B 00/B 00/B 01/B 01/B
LVM 002/021 008/039 025/042 024/046 025/046 026/047 029/050
64/S 00/Q 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 01/B
HDN 905/010 904/037 018/044 020/045 022/045 022/046 024/052
52/S 00/U 00/B 00/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
MLS 910/005 903/033 012/032 015/036 017/036 017/040 022/045
20/B 00/U 00/E 00/B 11/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 907/006 904/036 016/038 021/041 022/040 020/043 025/048
50/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 918/901 909/026 005/027 012/030 010/029 009/032 017/038
20/I 00/Q 00/B 00/B 11/B 11/B 12/O
SHR 907/008 906/039 017/040 018/046 021/045 021/046 023/051
75/S 00/U 00/B 00/U 01/B 11/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES 32-33-37.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO
NOON MST SUNDAY FOR ZONES 34-56-66-138-139-169-170.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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