762
FXUS65 KBYZ 050645
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1245 AM MDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
- VERY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
- POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A FILLING WAVE
LIFTS INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO/THE GREAT BASIN. THIS WILL BRING VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE REGION. THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
INTO THE 80S WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90
DEGREES. THE PROBABILITY FOR REACHING 90 DEGREES IS GREATEST OVER
VALLEY LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS (20% IN BILLINGS, 55%
IN SHERIDAN, AND 30 TO 50% OVER SOUTHERN POWDER RIVER AND CARTER
COUNTIES). RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE AT LIVINGSTON, BILLINGS AND
SHERIDAN. ALONG WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
CAN BE EXPECTED, GREATEST ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, WHERE GUSTS
OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES, GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(TEENS), WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. ALONG
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS CONDITIONS WILL BE CRITICAL AS THIS AREA HAS
SEEN MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST MONTH, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
10AM TO 8PM TODAY FOR WESTERN AREAS. USE EXTRA CAUTION WITH
ANYTHING THAT COULD START A FIRE. A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND A COOL
DOWN (HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 70S).
HIGHER HEIGHTS BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK, BRINGING WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES. HIGHS
LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO WESTERN CANADA AND THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FLOW TO AMPLIFY OVER THE
REGION, BRINGING PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS, AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY INTO THE 80S
AND BREEZY WINDS MAY BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND ENSEMBLES BRING
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH INTO THE WESTERN US, WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOW
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW, MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AND
PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE (MODERATE TO HIGH
CHANCES), INCLUDING MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL. SOME SOLUTIONS EVEN SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATION SNOWFALL. THE TRACK OF THE LOW
WILL AFFECT TEMPERATURES, PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND TYPE. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR COOLER AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS,
THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGES TO PRESENT THEMSELVES.
THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY, SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK
AHEAD. STP
AVIATION
06Z DISCUSSION...
BREEZY WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS BECOME COMMON OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA THIS MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN THE
EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 087 051/079 048/076 046/072 046/078 052/070 040/047
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 67/W
LVM 086 049/081 044/079 043/076 043/079 046/069 032/047
0/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 02/W 78/W
HDN 087 047/079 043/076 042/073 042/080 049/072 039/050
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 56/W
MLS 085 050/078 046/073 046/069 046/077 050/070 042/049
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 55/W
4BQ 087 052/080 047/075 046/072 047/079 052/074 044/052
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 45/W
BHK 085 049/078 044/074 042/070 042/076 048/074 039/051
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 35/W
SHR 088 049/081 045/077 043/074 042/080 048/076 038/051
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 47/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 123-124.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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