674
FXUS65 KBYZ 252259
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
459 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL KEEP SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AROUND AND INTRODUCE SMALL TO MODERATE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NW IS SET TO MOVE
THROUGH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT. EXPECT GUSTS 20-35
MPH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH POTENTIALLY STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
(35-45 MPH) WITH THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. AS A
RESULT, CONDITIONS WILL BE COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND. APPROACHING
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE, MOVING INTO
THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WITH ENSEMBLES STILL SHOWING THE
ENERGY SPLITTING AS IT MOVES INTO MT, WEAK FORCING WILL YIELD
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. CURRENTLY, AREA MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHEAST MT ARE EXPECTED TO BENEFIT FROM THIS EVENT. AMOUNTS HAVE
TRENDED DOWN AND THERE IS NOW ABOUT A 20-40% CHANCE FOR A QUARTER
INCH OF PRECIPITATION FOR AREA FOOTHILLS AND SOUTHEAST MT. AREA
MOUNTAINS HAVE ABOUT A 50-70% CHANCE FOR THIS SAME SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIOD. THE SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR THE MOUNTAINS HAS ALSO
DECREASED WITH ABOUT A 40% CHANCE FOR AN INCH AT THE HIGHEST
PEAKS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE BEARTOOTH PASS NOW HAS
LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE FOR AN INCH. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM, THE MID
LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ZONAL KEEPING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AROUND WITH NO OBVIOUS WEATHER SYSTEMS AT THIS TIME.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WARMEST TODAY, IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S, COOLING TO THE 60S AND LOW 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD. TS
AVIATION
00Z TAF/AVIATION DISCUSSION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE GUSTY
(20-30KTS) OUT OF THE WEST ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, AND OVER
AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS (SE 20-30KTS). AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WINDS WILL TURN TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST GUSTING 20 TO 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS POST
FRONTAL. NOCTURNAL INVERSION MAY PROTECT SOME AREAS FROM THE GUSTY
WINDS, BUT THE STRONG PRESSURE RISES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO STIR SURFACE WINDS UP FOR AN HOUR OR
SO JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHERE SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD REACH 40KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE PRIOR
TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH. A BIT OF LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
(~4KFT AGL) IS FORECAST ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT AT THIS
TIME THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVENT PRECIPITATION OR
FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS. WINDS DIMINISH BY MID DAY SATURDAY
FOR ALL AREAS. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052/070 047/063 047/067 046/073 050/071 048/071 048/064
00/U 02/W 21/E 00/U 10/U 00/B 13/W
LVM 044/069 042/065 040/068 039/072 043/071 042/072 041/063
00/B 01/E 22/T 00/U 10/U 11/B 14/W
HDN 049/072 044/068 045/068 044/074 046/072 044/073 045/066
00/U 01/B 31/E 10/U 10/U 00/B 12/W
MLS 055/070 047/068 050/068 046/073 049/071 048/071 049/066
00/U 01/B 43/W 00/U 10/U 00/U 11/B
4BQ 055/070 049/072 052/066 047/073 050/071 048/072 050/068
00/U 01/E 63/W 10/U 10/U 00/B 01/B
BHK 053/071 044/068 048/067 044/072 046/071 044/070 045/066
00/U 02/W 85/W 10/U 10/U 00/B 11/B
SHR 048/073 043/068 045/065 041/071 044/071 042/072 043/067
00/U 01/B 25/T 30/U 10/U 00/B 01/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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