868
FXUS65 KBYZ 211803
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1203 PM MDT SAT SEP 21 2019
UPDATE
UPDATED FORECAST TO DROP THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS. CHAMBERS
SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN
THE TROUGH AXIS IS NOW PRETTY MUCH LOCATED FROM BILLINGS DOWN TO
TO THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS. THE DRY SLOT THAT KEPT SOME OF THE RAIN
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ZONES AROUND BILLINGS LAST EVENING HAS PUSHED
TO THE EAST, NOW CLEARING THE RAINFALL OUT OF ROSEBUD COUNTY EAST
INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEST WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING, BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING THE AFTERNOON EXPECTING THE
ACTIVITY TO BECOME MORE SCATTERED, HIT AND MISS THAN THE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP THAT HAS BEEN OCCURING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE,
WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH TOWARDS MILES
CITY AND BAKER AS THE HEAVY PRECIP WILL SPREAD THAT WAY AND REMAIN
THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY, SO WILL KEEP THE
WINTER STORM WARNING GOING.
NORTHWEST WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE
15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH, WITH THE STRONGEST IN
SOUTHEAST MONTANA NEARER TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH CLOUD COVER
REMAINING FOR MOST OF THE DAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S.
SUNDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AS HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING. HIGHS SHOULD
BE NEARING NORMALS, UP INTO THE 70S. REIMER
LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE LONG TERM. UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHWEST FLOW
LOOKS TO EXIST THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER ON TUESDAY, AND STRONG
MOMENTUM TRANSFER AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING ABOUT GUSTY
CONDITIONS AT, NORTH, AND WEST OF BILLINGS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AN
UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, KEEPING
RELATIVELY CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS.
BEGINNING THURSDAY, A DEEP UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO SET UP OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. COAST, AND PERSIST THERE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
ANOMALOUS WEATHER PATTERN WILL HELP TO COOL CONDITIONS OFF AND
BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH THIS SYSTEM, IN-PART DUE TO A DRIVING FORCE BEING
TYPHOON TAPAH IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. TEMPERATURES HIGHS
HAVE UP TO A 30 DEGREE DIFFERENCE, AND LARGE DIFFERENCES IN 500 MB
HEIGHTS EXIST AS WELL. HOWEVER, IT DOES SEEM FAIRLY CONSISTENT
THAT THE WEEKEND WILL COOL OFF FROM ITS MID WEEK TEMPERATURES, AND
BE WET.
MID WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S,
WITH WEEKEND TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF TO THE 50S.
VERTZ
AVIATION
CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE MORNING IN RAIN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE
AFTER 18Z AND SHOWERS MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. BY 00Z, CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE VFR TO MVFR, AND ALL SHOWERS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY MIDNIGHT. EXPECT GUSTY WNW SURFACE WINDS, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25
KNOTS. WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON. REIMER/VERTZ
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063 046/072 049/078 052/073 047/065 044/062 041/054
5/R 30/U 01/B 12/N 51/B 34/R 55/R
LVM 060 040/069 042/074 047/067 041/063 040/059 036/052
3/R 30/U 01/B 03/W 51/B 56/R 66/R
HDN 062 044/072 046/076 049/072 044/063 042/062 040/055
7/R 30/U 01/B 13/W 62/W 33/R 65/R
MLS 063 045/071 048/078 051/070 044/063 044/062 041/056
5/R 10/U 00/U 02/N 31/U 33/R 44/R
4BQ 060 043/070 045/077 048/071 042/063 041/064 040/057
7/R 20/U 00/B 12/B 51/U 22/R 54/R
BHK 061 043/069 046/077 049/069 042/062 041/062 040/057
7/R 10/U 00/U 01/N 31/U 33/R 33/R
SHR 060 040/070 042/077 044/072 041/063 039/064 037/056
6/R 30/U 01/B 13/B 71/B 22/R 64/R
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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