052
FXUS65 KBYZ 211928
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1228 PM MST SAT DEC 21 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY SW-W WINDS CONTINUE ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODIC
WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
- TRAVEL CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD LEADING UP TO CHRISTMAS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BRINGING US DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON
THIS WINTER SOLSTICE. NOON TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED 61F AT FORT
SMITH, 60F AT WOLF CREEK RAWS (4886FT) AND 57F AT THE BILLINGS
AIRPORT (TYING ITS DAILY RECORD). SEVERAL LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S BY MID AFTERNOON. EVEN THE FAR EAST IS IN
THE 40S AND COULD REACH 50F TODAY.
LIVINGSTON CONTINUES TO GUST ~40 MPH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS THE IDA-LWT BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN, WITH A 19Z
DIFFERENCE OF ABOUT 11MB. WINDS AT 700MB OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE TO NEAR 40 KNOTS THIS EVENING, IN A PRE-FRONTAL REGIME
AHEAD OF A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE (CURRENTLY ALONG THE PACNW COAST).
HAVE ALREADY ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR LIVINGSTON AND THE
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS FROM 5PM TODAY TO 8AM SUNDAY...AND THIS STILL
LOOKS ON TRACK DESPITE THE UNDERWHELMING 12Z GUIDANCE. LOCAL WIND
TOOL SHOWS A 60% CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING OR EXCEEDING 58 MPH AT
THE GAP LOCATIONS. AS A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT (09-12Z)
THE GAP FLOW WILL BEGIN TO SLACKEN AND GUSTS WILL RAMP UP FROM BIG
TIMBER TO HARLOWTON. DO NOT SEE ENOUGH MID LEVEL WIND FOR
HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA, BUT THERE IS A 70% CHANCE OF 50 MPH GUSTS. ALL
TOLD, DRIVERS OF HIGH-PROFILE VEHICLES CAN EXPECT TO ENCOUNTER
HAZARDOUS CROSSWINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TONIGHT & SUNDAY.
PACIFIC WAVE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY PASSAGE IN OUR REGION (BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIP IS TO OUR NORTH), BUT SHOULD PRODUCE AN INCH OR
TWO OF SNOW OVER OUR WESTERN MOUNTAINS, AND A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH). ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE RISK OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS NORTH OF
OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, AS ANY LIGHT
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO FALL BEHIND THE SHIFT TO WESTERLY WINDS
(I.E. WARMER SURFACE TEMPS)...BUT THIS IS OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING TO
WATCH TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY OF SEEING 0.01" IS ONLY 20% ACROSS
OUR NORTHERN TIER FROM ROUNDUP TO INGOMAR, FORSYTH, MILES CITY AND
BAKER...AND LESS FURTHER SOUTH.
BREEZY POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS MOSTLY 20-30 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY
EVENING, BUT GAP AREAS IN OUR WEST WILL SEE AN INCREASE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS PERHAPS RETURNING TO ~40 MPH (AFTER A
DECREASE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING).
TEMPS WILL OBVIOUSLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT WILL BE
DOWNRIGHT MILD WITH DOWNSLOPE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER, AS COLD
ADVECTION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL
TAKE A STEP DOWN BUT STILL REACH THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S MOST
PLACES. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLIER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
JKL
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
RIDGING WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE SMALL CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, MAINLY BRINGING A SHOT OF LIGHT SNOWFALL
TO THE MOUNTAINS, OTHERWISE, WEAK FORCING AND WESTERLY FLOW WILL
PREVENT LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM RECEIVING MUCH PRECIP. IT'LL BE A
SIMILAR STORY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE BETTER FORCING TRACKS SOUTH OF
MT. ENSEMBLES HINT AT ANOTHER WAVE THURSDAY/FRIDAY, BUT THE BULK
OF THE ENERGY LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH. WITH EACH OF THESE WAVES,
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE LOWER ELEVATIONS WON'T SEE MORE THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. A PATTERN CHANGE INDICATING
COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS IS IN SIGHT FOR THE NEW YEAR, SO KEEP
AND EYE OUT AS THE TIME APPROACHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE 40S TO LOW 50S. TS
AVIATION
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AT KLVM THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE TO 45-50
KNOTS FROM THIS EVENING TO EARLY SUNDAY (CHANCE OF REACHING 50
KNOTS IS 60%). OTHER WESTERN FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS SUCH AS K6S0 AND
KHWQ WILL SEE WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 30-45 KNOT GUSTS LATE
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AREAS EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS WILL SEE GUSTS OF
20-30 KNOTS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL OBSCURATIONS DUE TO
SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/052 029/048 028/047 032/046 027/045 031/048 032/049
10/N 02/W 10/B 21/B 00/B 10/B 11/B
LVM 040/048 035/047 027/048 029/044 027/044 028/045 032/047
21/N 05/W 01/B 51/B 01/N 21/N 32/W
HDN 031/052 026/047 026/050 028/047 023/045 027/048 029/051
11/U 02/W 10/U 22/W 01/B 21/B 11/B
MLS 028/048 023/045 026/046 028/044 023/042 027/045 026/046
12/W 00/B 00/U 11/B 00/B 11/B 01/B
4BQ 033/049 025/048 028/049 030/044 025/045 028/047 029/047
01/B 00/B 10/U 11/B 00/U 11/B 01/B
BHK 026/042 020/042 024/045 024/040 021/042 023/042 023/042
02/W 00/U 00/U 01/B 00/U 11/B 01/B
SHR 031/051 023/048 024/050 026/046 022/047 024/048 025/050
00/B 01/E 20/U 12/W 00/B 21/B 01/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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