998
FXUS65 KBYZ 130740
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1240 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- GUSTY WINDS RETURNS TO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THIS WEEKEND; UP
TO A 50% CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH AT LIVINGSTON.
- BECOMING COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WARM AND DRY PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY IN THE 50S F. THE FLOW PATTERN MAY BRING SOME PACIFIC
MOISTURE INTO THE ROCKIES PRODUCING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE HIGH COUNTRY, BUT THE CHANCE OF EVEN
AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION THIS WEEKEND IS JUST 45 PERCENT.
OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE PICKING UP AROUND LIVINGSTON TO NYE (GUSTS
INTO THE 30S MPH) EARLY THIS MORNING AS A MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT DEVELOPS OVER THE ABSAROKA- BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS. WITH
THAT SAID, NO STRONG CROSSWINDS ARE EXPECTED. LOOK FOR PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE AROUND LIVINGSTON TO NYE EACH NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THE LACK OF ANY STRONGER MID- LEVEL
WINDS WILL KEEP WINDS DOWN THIS MORNING, INCREASED MID- LEVEL
WINDS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOOK TO ENHANCE THE WINDS A BIT
MORE, ALLOWING THERE TO BE UP TO A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS BOTH NIGHTS/MORNINGS. AROUND BIG TIMBER TO HARLOWTON,
ELEVATED WINDS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
(STRONGEST SUNDAY), BUT MID-LEVEL WINDS PEAKING AROUND 40 KNOTS
SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG WINDS. CURRENTLY, THE
CHANCE OF SEEING 50 MPH WIND GUSTS OVER THESE LOCATIONS IS 20
PERCENT.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK MODEL ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
OUR REGION WILL BREAK DOWN AS A GOOD DEAL OF ENERGY WORKS INTO
THE WEST COAST WITH BROAD TROUGHINESS TAKING OVER THE INTER-
MOUNTAIN WEST. MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM RIGHT
NOW, BUT MORE LIKE A SERIES OF WAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE MAIN
CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA. THUS, UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AND A COOLING TREND. FOR NOW, WE
BELIEVE THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS IS FOR TUESDAY AND PERHAPS BETTER FOR THURSDAY...BUT
DUE TO THE WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY, POP'S FOR
THESE DAYS REMAIN RELATIVELY MUTED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST (20 TO
50 PERCENT). EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER
THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING UNUSUAL
COLD. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. BT/ARENDS
AVIATION
PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS WILL EXIST AROUND KLVM THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA.
TS/ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 029/055 034/058 031/058 032/050 025/041 023/042
0/U 00/B 01/B 10/B 14/W 33/J 22/J
LVM 048 030/051 035/053 032/053 033/047 025/041 023/039
0/U 00/N 11/N 11/B 35/W 43/J 32/J
HDN 055 025/057 029/059 028/060 031/051 023/041 020/044
0/U 00/B 00/B 10/B 15/W 44/J 33/J
MLS 050 025/053 029/054 029/055 031/049 021/033 016/035
0/U 00/B 00/E 10/B 03/W 43/J 22/J
4BQ 054 027/055 030/058 028/058 034/055 024/039 020/041
0/U 00/B 00/B 10/U 03/W 33/J 22/J
BHK 050 024/051 027/052 026/051 029/045 020/033 014/032
0/U 00/B 00/B 10/B 04/W 54/J 22/J
SHR 052 023/054 027/058 025/057 029/051 020/041 018/040
0/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 15/W 44/J 33/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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