117
FXUS65 KBYZ 062034
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
134 PM MST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY AND VERY WARM WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- INCREASED GRASS FIRE CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES.
- PATTERN CHANGE TO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND WET EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY...
OUR PESKY RIDGE WHICH HAS BROUGHT US RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WE STILL HAVE A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF HOT,
DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS IN STORE.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, GAP WINDS ARE FORECAST TO MAKE A RETURN TO THE
LIVINGSTON AREA AS THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN IN
EXCESS OF 10MB IN ADDITION TO A ~10F TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN MAMMOTH
AND LIVINGSTON. THE 700MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY NON-EXISTANT FOR
MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE MAXIMUM GUSTS
TO THE 40-50 MPH RAGE.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, THE FIRE WEATHER RISK WILL INCREASE YET
AGAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL BE 15-25F ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES ACROSS
THE CWA WITH RH VALUES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE TEENS FOR SOME
LOCATIONS TO THE WEST OF BILLINGS. ADDITIONALLY, A "STRONGER" AREA
OF 700MB WINDS (20-30KTS) SHOULD MOVE OVER MOST OF THE REGION
WHICH COULD MIX DOWN SOME 20-30MPH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH
TEMPS MAY BE A TOUCH LOWER ON SUNDAY, AND THUS HIGHER RHS, THE
INGREDIENTS FOR ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. BE SURE TO CONTINUE TO EXERCISE ENHANCED FIRE SAFETY.
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
WHICH WILL BRING IN PACIFIC MOISTURE. IT APPEARS THAT A MAJORITY
OF THE MOISTURE, AND THUS PRECIPITATION, WILL OCCUR ON THE FRONT
END OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD BE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY FOR THE SNOW LOVERS, THE SNOW LEVELS FOR
THIS EVENT WILL START AROUND 7KFT BEFORE THEY SLOWLY DROP DURING
THE DAY MONDAY TO THE SURFACE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS MEANS THAT
MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
1" OR LESS ACROSS THE POPULATED ELEVATIONS. THIS WILL BE A GOOD
EVENT FOR THE WEST ASPECTS OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS AND CRAZIES
WHERE 0.5-1" OF SWE COULD BE ADDED.
MOVING LATER INTO THE WEEK, IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY IN
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPS NEAR AVERAGE WITH
REPEATED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. WMR
AVIATION
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO SATURDAY. WITH THIS, THERE MAY BE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE
ABSAROKA-BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING (15 TO 25
PERCENT CHANCE). OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LOOK FOR
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO RETURN SATURDAY AS WELL. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 041/068 040/064 040/051 029/047 026/047 027/050 028/051
00/B 00/E 27/O 41/B 11/E 00/U 00/U
LVM 040/060 039/058 040/048 024/043 022/043 024/045 025/046
20/N 01/B 59/O 41/U 11/B 10/U 01/U
HDN 035/068 033/066 037/053 024/049 023/049 023/052 025/053
00/B 00/B 27/R 52/S 11/E 10/U 01/U
MLS 033/061 034/061 034/047 027/043 022/045 021/047 024/049
00/B 00/B 14/R 31/B 11/B 00/U 00/U
4BQ 035/061 035/064 033/053 028/044 023/047 023/048 025/051
00/B 00/B 03/R 42/S 12/O 10/U 00/U
BHK 030/056 032/059 030/044 024/041 020/043 021/044 022/046
00/N 00/B 04/O 42/S 12/S 10/U 00/U
SHR 034/063 032/064 032/055 022/043 020/044 020/048 021/048
00/B 00/B 15/R 63/S 23/S 11/U 01/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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