893
FXUS65 KBYZ 261200
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
600 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING FREQUENT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY), COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BRISK WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TO ADD SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THIS MORNING TO CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ZONES WHERE SHOWERS ARE TRACKING ALONG WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE. MIDNIGHT SPC THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK UPGRADED MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT MESSAGING TRACKS THIS
CHANGE. WPC ALSO POSTED A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(FLASH FLOOD THREAT) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TO COVER THE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST IN THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CLOUD COVER AND MORNING SHOWERS MAY TAKE A FEW DEGREES OFF THE
CURRENT FORECAST IN AREAS THAT DON'T GET SUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS
TODAY. ANY AREAS THAT UNDER PERFORM ON TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO SEE
LESS ENERGY FOR STRONG STORMS TODAY, SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON
TODAY. CHAMBERS
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. STORMS
WILL BEGIN OVER THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN BEFORE MOVING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS LIKE A HIGH SHEAR LOW
CAPE DAY WITH SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40-60 KT RANGE AND CAPE
GENERALLY IN THE 500-1,000 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
LAST WELL INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO CAPE VALUES REMAINING ELEVATED
OVERNIGHT AND A STRONG 30-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A RISK LEVEL 1 OF 5 FOR SEVERE STORMS
EAST OF BILLINGS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL >1 INCH AND WIND
GUSTS >60 MPH. PWAT VALUES OF 1-1.25 INCHES AND LONG SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN, THOUGH STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE FAST HELPING TO LIMIT FLOODING. DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED
A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR EASTERN MONTANA.
SATURDAY WILL BRING AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND
DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 F WILL HELP TO UNLOCK MORE CAPE SATURDAY WITH
VALUES POTENTIALLY GETTING INTO THE 1-2,000 J/KG RANGE NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER WITH CONTINUED HIGH SHEAR. THESE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED LARGE HAIL RISK ALONG WITH
STRONG WINDS. FOR THESE REASONS THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ISSUED A LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY. CONTINUED
PWAT VALUES ABOVE 1 INCH WILL LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAVING ISSUED A LEVEL 1 OF 4 RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SATURDAY FOR EASTERN MONTANA.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ESPECIALLY THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED
FOR SUNDAY AS SOUNDINGS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY TO GO ALONG WITH
STRONG SHEAR. IT IS TOO EARLY TO KNOW THE POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF
THESE STORMS AT THIS TIME. MONDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (30-60%) WITH THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEING
SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S F TODAY BEFORE COOLING DOWN INTO
THE 70S F IN THE WEST SATURDAY. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S F. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL SEE A
WARMER AND DRIER PATTERN TAKE HOLD AS AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP TO FAR TO OUR WEST TO BRING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO
THE 80S AND POTENTIALLY 90S F WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TORGERSON
AVIATION
12Z DISCUSSION...A FEW WEAK SHOWERS WILL TRANSIT THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING, BUT
SHOULD NOT IMPACT FLIGHT CATEGORIES. PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF
STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING FOR AREAS EAST OF
BILLINGS AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN STATE LINE. THIS MAY
IMPACT KMLS/KSHR/KBHK WITH LOCAL IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT TIMES
THROUGH 15-16Z, BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A WIDESPREAD THREAT
OUTSIDE OF FALLON AND CARTER COUNTIES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS TO
BROADUS LINE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR LEVELS. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER 06Z TONIGHT WITH A
SHIFT TO NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 059/076 052/072 051/072 051/081 054/084 056/090
5/T 58/T 83/T 23/W 01/U 11/U 10/U
LVM 079 050/069 043/064 040/062 042/074 044/078 046/085
5/T 67/T 95/T 56/T 22/T 22/T 11/U
HDN 086 058/078 051/075 049/074 049/081 051/085 053/091
4/T 48/T 84/T 53/W 11/U 11/U 10/U
MLS 083 061/080 054/076 052/073 051/080 054/084 056/090
3/T 47/T 83/T 64/W 11/U 11/U 11/U
4BQ 083 062/081 054/079 053/075 051/081 055/086 058/091
4/T 55/T 62/T 44/W 10/U 11/U 11/U
BHK 080 059/084 052/079 051/074 049/079 052/085 055/089
2/W 57/T 82/T 74/T 11/U 11/U 21/U
SHR 083 054/076 048/073 045/073 044/080 048/084 050/089
3/T 38/T 66/T 53/W 11/U 02/T 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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