659
FXUS65 KBYZ 031232
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
632 AM MDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING (UP TO A 15
PERCENT CHANCE).
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, MAINLY OVER SOUTH-
EASTERN MONTANA.
- WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY REACH THE 90S BY
SATURDAY. COOLER SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.
UPDATE
THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACTED
SOUTH-EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED INTO NORTH-
EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING. LOOK FOR MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY OUTSIDE
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (15 PERCENT) OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
(10 PERCENT) OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
EVENING. THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. LA
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)...
EARLY THIS MORNING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN MONTANA AS THE BROAD UPPER
LOW EXITS THE REGION. AS THIS ACTIVITY COMES TO AN END, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS (15 PERCENT) OR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS (10 PERCENT) OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH- CENTRAL MONTANA THIS EVENING. THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION THEN INCREASES OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA TONIGHT
(15 TO 30 PERCENT) AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA. THURSDAY, THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SPREADS ACROSS THE
AREA (40 TO 60 PERCENT).
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH SOME POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-
CENTRAL/EASTERN WYOMING. WITH THIS, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
CURRENTLY HAS LOCATIONS AROUND AND EAST OF BILLINGS UNDER A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) WITH FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5).
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY, ALLOWING FOR
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONG
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE FOR THE PACNW HEADING INTO
THE WEEKEND AND OUR AREA WILL COME UNDER INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH A PERIOD OF ENERGY PUSHING OVER THE AREA. THIS PATTERN
IS A FAVORABLE ONE FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE
POTENTIAL TO MOVE LOW LEVEL PLAINS MOISTURE DEEP INTO OUR AREA
UNDER A STRONGLY SHEARED ATMOSPHERE. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WHICH WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS AN
EARLIER TIMING FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH MAY LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY.
STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE FORECAST IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS
WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE FROM MOSTLY 70S TODAY TO MOSTLY
80S BY FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S, WARMEST OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ARCHER/LA
AVIATION
12Z DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. OVER THE
MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS (15 PERCENT) OR EVEN A WEAK THUNDERSTORM (10 PERCENT) LATE
THIS EVENING. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THEN BEGINS TO INCREASE
OVER THE REST OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA TONIGHT BEFORE SPREADING
EAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. LA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 053/078 052/087 057/091 055/074 049/083 055/090
0/U 15/T 20/U 01/U 23/T 21/U 11/U
LVM 079 047/075 045/085 050/085 045/068 040/078 046/083
0/U 25/T 10/U 02/T 45/T 21/U 11/B
HDN 077 051/079 049/086 055/091 053/075 047/084 053/091
0/U 15/T 50/U 01/U 12/W 31/U 11/U
MLS 074 049/078 051/083 058/092 058/075 050/081 057/091
2/B 05/T 50/U 00/U 31/B 31/U 11/U
4BQ 074 051/079 051/083 058/094 058/076 050/081 057/092
1/B 14/T 51/U 00/U 21/B 41/B 21/U
BHK 072 045/077 048/079 053/090 057/077 049/078 054/089
2/B 03/T 62/W 00/N 31/B 41/B 21/U
SHR 075 046/077 046/084 049/092 051/075 044/081 050/090
1/U 05/T 51/U 01/U 14/T 52/T 21/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page