566
FXUS65 KBYZ 162026
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
226 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MONTANA. HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND HAIL
ARE THE MAIN THREATS. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS GREATEST TODAY.
- SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING, OR EVEN FLASH FLOODING, TODAY,
FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY. MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF FLASH
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING.
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S, WARMEST
THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WITH MOISTURE AND OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES ROUNDING THE RIDGE, WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER PATTERN INTO NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS, TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 80S AND 90S ARE FORECAST, ALONG WITH A DAILY
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA
EACH DAY.
FOR TODAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST, FIRST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SPREADING OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS FORECAST DELAY
OVER THE PLAINS IS DUE TO A CAPPING INVERSION THAT LOOKS TO LIMIT
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS INITIALLY. WHILE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT, A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET MAY ALLOW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER
EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH THE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS LOW (AROUND A 15 PERCENT CHANCE). WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND MODEST WIND SHEAR, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WHILE THE INSTABILITY IS ALSO HIGH OVER EASTERN
MONTANA, WIND SHEAR IS MUCH LESS, LIMITING THE ABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE AND BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. CURRENTLY,
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH CENTRAL AND WESTERN MONTANA, WITH
A SMALL POCKET OF SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OVER WESTERN MONTANA.
THE MAIN THREATS ARE HEAVY RAIN, STRONG WIND GUSTS, AND HAIL. THE
HAIL THREAT IS GREATEST OVER WESTERN MONTANA WHERE THE WIND SHEAR
IS GREATEST. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER ALSO HAS A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING
TODAY OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL/WESTERN
WYOMING DUE TO SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST ONCE AGAIN, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER
EASTERN MONTANA IN THE MORNING AND A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A LOW LEVEL JET MAY ALSO ONCE AGAIN ALLOW SHOWERS AND
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO THE NIGHT,
BUT THE CHANCE REMAINS LOW. WITH GOOD INSTABILITY, BUT LIMITED
SHEAR, THE MAIN RISK WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IS HEAVY RAIN AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING. WITH
THIS, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING OVER SOUTH-
CENTRAL AND WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-WESTERN WYOMING. OVER
WESTERN MONTANA WHERE WIND SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A BIT STRONGER, THERE
IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
EAST OF THIS AREA OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING, THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN NON-SEVERE WITH THE LIMITED WIND SHEAR.
WHILE A DAILY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
SATURDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, SUNDAY INTO MONDAY LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY
DRIER DAYS BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
CONTENT DECREASES BACK NEAR NORMAL, COMPARED TO THE ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES WE HAVE BEEN SEEING. THIS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION MAINLY
TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THESE DAYS. THE RETURN OF ABOVE
NORMAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WILL THEN RESUME AT LEAST A DAILY
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR MID-WEEK. LA
AVIATION
LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS EARLY AS
18Z AND TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOCAL MVFR/IFR IN HEAVY RAIN AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS OF 25-45KTS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH TODAY'S STORMS.
TS POTENTIAL TIMES:
KLVM: 20Z-02Z
KBIL: 23Z-06Z
KSHR: 19Z-05Z
JKL/PM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/095 066/096 066/097 065/092 065/089 064/090 064/089
41/B 31/U 41/U 10/U 21/B 32/T 42/T
LVM 057/092 057/094 057/094 057/091 057/086 056/087 056/088
23/T 42/T 51/U 11/U 34/T 44/T 54/T
HDN 064/097 065/097 065/098 063/094 063/090 063/092 062/092
41/B 31/U 32/T 20/U 31/B 32/T 42/T
MLS 067/096 069/099 068/099 066/094 063/088 063/091 064/092
12/T 32/T 21/U 20/U 11/B 32/W 22/T
4BQ 067/096 069/099 068/097 065/093 063/087 063/089 063/089
22/W 22/T 32/T 21/U 22/W 53/T 32/T
BHK 063/095 063/095 064/098 062/093 058/085 058/087 059/090
12/W 34/T 41/U 10/U 10/B 33/T 22/T
SHR 060/094 061/095 061/094 059/092 058/088 058/088 058/087
33/T 23/T 45/T 23/T 35/T 56/T 44/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
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