210
FXUS65 KBYZ 260241
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
841 PM MDT MON MAR 25 2019
UPDATE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING, WITH A
GOOD DEAL OF HIGH CLOUD MAKING IT ALL THE WAY TO BILLINGS AND
SHERIDAN AS OF 830 PM. TO THE EAST, SKIES ARE CLEARING, BUT AREA
OF STRATUS CONTINUES TO HUG THE DAKOTAS BORDER. IN FACT, LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF WESTWARD MOVING LOW CLOUDS
IN CARTER COUNTY, CONSISTENT WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. A
STRATUS/FOG COMBO WILL IMPACT OUR EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE INCREASED HIGH CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER WEST, BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH DEW POINTS
AWAY FROM THE FOOTHILLS CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG.
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE RAISED SKY COVER SOME
AND MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND WINDS. JKL
SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TUE AND WED
WEAK UPPER TROUGH WAS SLIDING EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING PRECIPITATION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT ALONG WITH RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALLOWING FOR FOG TO FORM OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARES. WESTERN AREAS ARE A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAIN AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL THERE.
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALOFT OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 60S AND CLOSE
TO 70 FOR SOME AREAS AS DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES.
DESPITE THE DRIER WEATHER CONDITIONS, THE WARMER AIR AND INCREASED
SOLAR HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE CONCERN FOR HYDROLOGIC
ISSUES OVER THE REGION. MANY RURAL ROADS AND LOW-LYING SPOTS
ACROSS THE AREA ARE BEING IMPACTED BY WATER FROM THE ONGOING LOWER
ELEVATION SNOW MELT. BIGGEST IMPACT IS ALONG THE LITTLE BIGHORN
RIVER AS I-90 REMAINS CLOSED FROM HARDIN TO THE WY LINE AS OF THIS
WRITING. PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THE HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW TUESDAY
NIGHT, BUT LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE AREA ACCORDING TO
LATEST GUIDANCE. MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WEST AND A SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE TROUGH EJECTS
THROUGH THE AREA. PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE PLAINS AS A LOW DEVELOPS OVER WESTERN
MONTANA AND COLDER AIR DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH. PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO TURN OVER TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY AS THE LOW DROPS INTO WYOMING ALLOWING FOR COLDER AIR TO
WORK INTO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE 40S TO 50S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO
UPPER 30S TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT, COOLING INTO THE 20S AND
LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STP
LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, AS
SPRING SNOW STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE
REGION.
THIS SYSTEM IS STILL PROGGED TO BE QUITE WET, BUT
MODELS/ENSEMBLES HAVE COME IN SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS,
BUT QPF AMOUNTS STILL BE ABOUT HALF AN INCH TO AROUND AN INCH FOR
WESTERN ZONES, AND LESS TO THE EAST OF BILLINGS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A PUSH OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL AS SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
FRIDAY. A PUSH OF COLD AIR SHOULD COME IN FAIRLY EARLY THURSDAY,
WITH 850MB TEMPS BELOW ZERO SHOULD SWITCH EVERYTHING TO SNOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS AS WELL. THAT SAID, THE IMPACTS OF SUN ANGLE IS
ALWAYS DIFFICULT TO GAUGE, SO MAY SEE A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN, BUT
SHOULD BE SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF SNOW ON ROADWAYS EITHER WAY. THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP AMOUNTS APPEAR TO OCCUR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME EXPECT TO SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE
LOWER ELEVATION, SEVERAL INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS REGIONS, AND A
FOOT OR MORE IN THE HIGH TERRAIN. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
OFF DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
EXACT SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN,CAN BE VERY TRICKY THIS
TIME OF YEAR, SO MONITOR THE FORECAST CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM IN EXPECTED TO FURTHER EXACERBATE PROBLEMS
WITH FLOODING RIVERS AND WATER IMPACTED LOCATIONS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH DRY AND
WARMER CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID 50S.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS ON CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.
GILSTAD.
AVIATION
AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS LINGERS ALONG THE MT/DAKOTAS BORDER,
INCLUDING AT KBHK, AS OF 0230Z. A COMBINATION OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT EASTERN AREAS INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
LOCAL MVFR/LIFR IS EXPECTED AND COULD IMPACT KMLS, KBHK, 4BQ AND
97M. FURTHER WEST, CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED VALLEY FOG NEAR KBIL
AND KSHR BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. OTHERWISE, VFR FLIGHT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS AROUND THE REGION. SW WINDS WILL GUST NEAR 30 KTS AT
TIMES AT KLVM. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 036/068 037/058 032/043 030/042 026/050 031/056 034/056
00/B 12/R 77/O 74/O 21/B 11/B 22/R
LVM 027/060 029/047 025/035 022/035 018/041 022/046 025/046
00/N 15/R 78/S 83/S 21/B 11/B 22/O
HDN 028/068 032/060 030/044 028/041 023/050 027/056 029/057
00/B 11/E 67/O 74/O 21/B 11/B 22/O
MLS 032/067 037/058 031/044 028/043 026/049 029/056 032/055
00/B 10/B 56/O 63/O 11/B 11/B 12/O
4BQ 029/068 036/061 032/046 030/041 025/048 028/054 031/057
00/B 00/B 57/O 75/O 21/B 11/B 12/R
BHK 028/064 035/056 029/042 027/041 023/046 027/054 029/053
00/B 00/B 56/O 43/O 11/B 11/B 12/R
SHR 029/070 033/059 030/044 028/039 022/046 025/052 029/054
00/B 01/B 58/O 86/O 32/S 11/B 12/O
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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