584  
FXUS65 KBYZ 110804  
AFDBYZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT  
204 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MT/NORTH CENTRAL WY THIS  
MORNING WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
- WARM (80S AND 90S) AND DRY THIS WEEKEND.  
 
- MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH ELEVATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...  
 
AN UPPER TROUGH WAS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, WITH AN  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAVING DROPPED THROUGH THE AREA LATE LAST  
EVENING/EARLY THIS MORNING. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH HAVE  
BEEN COMMON. POST FRONTAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, LINGERING OVER  
THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE SHERIDAN VICINITY THROUGH ROUGHLY  
NOON. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL,  
GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL  
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY.  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN YESTERDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE  
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN FROM THE  
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SMOKE FROM CANADIAN  
WILDFIRES MAY AFFECT NORTHEASTERN AREAS STARTING THIS EVENING. LOW  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING A RETURN TO HOT  
AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE  
UPPER 80S TO 90S. STP  
 
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS  
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION. WITH THIS,  
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S, WARMEST  
SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, THE CHANCE OF SEEING 100F AGAIN ON SUNDAY  
REMAINS LOW, BUT IS AROUND 15 TO 30 PERCENT OVER THE RIVER VALLEYS  
IN EASTERN MONTANA (HIGHEST ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE RIVER VALLEY).  
 
MONDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A TRANSITION DAY AS ANOTHER WEATHER  
SYSTEM, AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE  
WEST. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 80S  
TO LOWER 90S, BUT THINGS COULD TREND WARMER WITH PRE-FRONTAL  
WARMING. WHILE MODELS HAVE THE FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION  
SOMETIME LATE MONDAY AT THIS POINT, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS. BEHIND  
THIS FRONT, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED CHANCES OF  
PRECIPITATION ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA. AS FAR  
AS TEMPERATURES GO, THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) IS  
CURRENTLY ADVERTISING HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S TUESDAY AND  
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED IN THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES.  
AS FAR AS THE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL GOES, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE  
(70 TO 80 PERCENT) OF SEEING AT LEAST A WETTING RAIN (0.10  
INCHES) ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE  
CHANCE OF SEEING A QUARTER OF AN INCH (0.25 INCHES) DURING THIS  
TIME IS ALSO ELEVATED AT 50 TO 70 PERCENT. WITH THIS  
PRECIPITATION OCCURRING AT COOLER TEMPERATURES, THE BEARTOOTH-  
ABSAROKA AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POTENTIAL  
SNOW IMPACTS. AT THIS TIME, THE CHANCE OF SEEING SNOW LEVELS DROP  
BELOW 12,000 FEET IS AROUND 65 PERCENT.  
 
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND BACK AROUND NORMAL FOR THE SECOND  
HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. THE  
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN ACTIVITY THOUGH WITH THE  
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON AFTER NEXT WEEK.  
ARENDS  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY TAPER  
OFF THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TODAY, HOLDING ON THE LONGEST  
AROUND KSHR. WITH THIS ACTIVITY, THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE (20 TO  
30 PERCENT) OF MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND KSHR AND KMLS. CHANCES ARE  
HIGHER (60 PERCENT) AROUND KBHK. OVER THE MOUNTAINS, PARTIAL  
OBSCURATIONS TO MOUNTAIN TOPS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. OUTSIDE OF  
THIS ACTIVITY, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. ARENDS  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
 
 
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU  
-------------------------------------------------------  
BIL 078 056/094 061/095 065/092 056/064 050/069 050/083  
1/U 00/U 00/U 12/T 66/T 52/T 11/U  
LVM 080 049/090 054/093 057/090 048/062 041/069 044/083  
1/U 00/U 00/U 12/T 67/T 52/T 11/U  
HDN 078 050/093 057/096 062/094 056/066 048/069 048/084  
2/W 00/U 00/U 11/U 66/T 53/T 11/U  
MLS 078 053/092 061/097 065/095 058/068 050/069 050/082  
1/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 65/T 52/W 11/U  
4BQ 075 053/089 061/095 067/094 059/069 051/066 050/079  
3/T 00/U 00/U 11/B 44/T 63/T 21/U  
BHK 075 049/088 056/093 062/092 055/069 047/066 046/077  
2/W 00/U 00/U 11/B 54/T 43/T 11/U  
SHR 074 047/089 055/095 059/091 052/067 044/067 044/082  
4/T 00/U 00/U 12/T 46/T 74/T 21/U  
 

 
   
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
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