819
FXUS65 KBYZ 020701
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1201 AM MST MON MAR 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND MOSTLY DRY INTO WEDNESDAY. CHANCE (40 TO 80 PERCENT)
OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF BILLINGS.
- WINDS INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS (MAINLY LIVINGSTON TO
NYE) TUESDAY NIGHT. (AROUND A 50% CHANCE FOR GUSTS OF 50+ MPH)
- NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SLIGHT
COOL DOWN WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (30 TO 70 PERCENT).
- MORE WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAINLY QUIET DRY AND WARM FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK, CHANGING TO A
MORE ACTIVE/UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. THAT SAID, NO BIG IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEMS CURRENTLY
SHOWING UP THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY PUSHING NORTH THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING
WITH EYES ON THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE IS OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LOW
SLIDING EAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AT THIS TIME. MODELS ARE
FINALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TRACK THAT MOVES EAST INTO WYOMING
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN DIVES SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA
TONIGHT. THE ONLY AREAS LOOKING AT SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS, MAINLY ON THE SOUTH FACING SLOPES, WHERE
PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED. CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR 2+
INCHES OF SNOW ARE AROUND 60 PERCENT ABOVE 8000 FEET FOR AREAS
ABOVE COOKE CITY, WITH THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS ONLY LOOKING AT A 20%
CHANCE FOR THIS LEVEL OF SNOWFALL. PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN DO SLOP
OVER THE NORTH SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE SHERIDAN
FOOTHILLS. PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (>0.01IN)
ARE 30-70 PERCENT IN THE BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS SOUTH OF I-90,
HIGHEST RIGHT ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN. PROBABILITIES ARE IN THE
20 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE ALONG THE SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS. PROBABILITIES
FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH OR MORE ARE UNDER 20 PERCENT ALONG THE
HIGHER FOOTHILLS, AND ZERO FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
ONCE THE UPPER LOW TRACKS PULLS AWAY TONIGHT WILL SEE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH WEAK RIDGING AND A BIT STRONGER WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
BROAD TROF MOVES ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL INCREASE THE WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS. GAP WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG THE UPPER YELLOWSTONE AND
STILLWATER RIVER VALLEYS ON TUESDAY NIGHT, PEAKING SOMETIME IN THE
LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED LOWER FOR PROBABILITIES OF STRONG WIND GUSTS, SITTING AT
AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR 50MPH AND 25 PERCENT FOR GUSTS NEAR 60 MPH.
FOR THE US-191 CORRIDOR THERE IS A BRIEF CHANCES FOR A STRONGER
WIND GUSTS IN THE MID DAY PERIOD WEDNESDAY, WITH PROBABILITIES
FOR 50 MPH SITTING AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND NOON
IN BIG TIMBER AND HARLOWTON, AND 30 PERCENT FOR A GUST TO 60MPH
DURING THAT SAME 2 TO 3 HOUR PERIOD. CHANCES FOR STRONG WINDS
TAPER OFF QUICKLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS
LIFT INCREASES AND ALONG WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS THE UPPER
TROF ARRIVES IN THE AREAS.
MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROF ORGANIZATION AND
TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MAJORITY OF THE
ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA FROM CENTRAL
WYOMING SOUTH INTO COLORADO. STILL LOOKING AT STRONG PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE 50 TO 80 PERCENT RANGE (FOR > 0.01IN) BUT
PROBABILITIES FOR >0.15 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS RANGES FROM NEAR ZERO OF SE MONTANA TO AROUND 40
PERCENT CENTRAL (BILLINGS/SHERIDAN) TO AROUND 60 PERCENT FOR THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS. PROBABILITIES FOR HALF AN INCH OR MORE OF
PRECIPITATION IS 50 TO 80 PERCENT FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, AND
AROUND 30 PERCENT FOR THE BIGHORNS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 4 TO 10 INCH RANGE FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, 3
TO 6 FOR THE BIGHORNS, WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ENERGY WITH THE TROF DROPS SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL PACIFIC ENERGY
BUILDS IN FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ON
TAP FOR SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDY CONDITIONS ON
SUNDAY. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SNOW CHANCES
(30-60%) WILL REMAIN OVER THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH AND BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 059 032/064 037/062 038/050 032/053 034/058 039/060
0/E 00/U 00/E 55/W 21/B 11/N 22/R
LVM 055 031/059 038/057 034/046 028/046 032/052 038/054
2/E 10/U 02/R 75/W 21/N 11/N 22/R
HDN 058 027/064 031/065 035/050 029/053 031/059 036/061
0/E 00/U 00/B 46/W 32/O 11/N 23/R
MLS 054 027/059 032/060 031/046 027/050 031/054 036/055
0/B 00/U 00/B 13/W 10/B 11/U 12/R
4BQ 058 029/061 032/062 034/050 029/048 030/055 035/060
0/B 00/U 00/U 14/W 21/B 01/U 12/R
BHK 055 025/057 029/059 027/046 023/045 025/051 031/052
0/B 00/U 00/U 02/W 10/B 01/N 12/R
SHR 057 028/059 027/062 030/046 025/046 023/055 029/057
1/E 20/U 00/B 27/W 43/O 11/U 13/R
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page