229
FXUS65 KBYZ 142142
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
242 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE WEEKEND;
PERIODIC GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 MPH AT LIVINGSTON.
- COLD FRONT BRINGS BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY.
- COOLER AND UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL KEEP US WARM AND MOSTLY DRY (A FEW
LIGHT/INSIGNIFICANT SHOWERS POSSIBLE W/ A WEAK SHORTWAVE SUNDAY)
THROUGH MONDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F AS
OUR ANOMALOUS WINTER CONTINUES. MODEST DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS WILL
KEEP WINDS SOMEWHAT GUSTY ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. GUSTS OF
50+ MPH ARE LIKELY AT LIVINGSTON, WHILE THE CHANCE OF REACHING
60 MPH IS 20%. AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE SW, EXPECT WINDS WITHIN
THE PARADISE VALLEY TO PICK UP AS WELL, WITH UP TO 50 MPH GUSTS
BY MONDAY.
THINGS GET MORE INTERESTING NEXT MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS
HEIGHTS FALL AND A WAVE EMERGES FROM THE GREAT BASIN, COMBINED
WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. THIS NO DOUBT WILL BRING
SOME SNOW TO OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED MOUNTAINS, AND RAIN-TO-SNOW
SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, THOUGH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO KEEP DOWNSLOPING SURFACE WINDS DOMINANT AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES
IN OUR NORTHEAST (AND OVERALL N/NE OF OUR CWA). FALLON COUNTY COULD
SEE A LITTLE WET SNOW ACCUMULATION, BUT THE BIGGER IMPACT APPEARS
TO BE WIND. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 985MB
PER BOTH THE EC & GFS ENSEMBLES, TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING NW
WINDS AS THE LOW TRACKS INTO THE DAKOTAS LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY HERE BUT THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A FAIR
SIGNAL FOR 30-50 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, STRONGEST ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND OVER OUR NORTH/EAST DURING PEAK COLD ADVECTION.
THIS IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR. AS FAR AS TEMPS GO, TUESDAY LOOKS
LIKE A TRANSITION DAY WITH FALLING TEMPS AFTER A WARM START.
NEXT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL CONFIDENTLY SEE COLDER TEMPS,
IN FACT, COLDER THAN NORMAL IS LOOKING LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AS WE REMAIN UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROFFING AND MUCH LOWER
HEIGHTS. A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR LOWER ELEVATION SNOW LOOKS TO
BE IN THE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME ANOTHER WAVE
PROVIDES ASCENT FROM WEST TO EAST, AND LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN TO AN
UPSLOPE DIRECTION. PTYPE HERE WILL BE JUST SNOW, AND MODELS SHOW
TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGESTIVE OF A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER. IT IS
WAY TOO EARLY TO OFFER SPECIFICS, BUT A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK (ALONG WITH
TEMPS IN THE TEENS & 20S). CURRENTLY, THE PROBABILITY OF AN INCH
OR MORE OF SNOW IS 30-45%. ALL OF THIS INCLUDES BILLINGS.
WE REMAIN UNDER BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS WITH A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL
WEAK SHORTWAVES ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN TROF TO FINISH OFF NEXT
WEEK, THUS SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY & SATURDAY.
TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOWLY MODERATE DURING THIS TIME.
JKL
AVIATION
SW TO W WIND GUSTS OF 40KTS ARE EXPECTED AT KLVM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRAY GUST TO 50KTS IS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 06-14Z. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE
FOOTHILLS (K6S0/K3HT) MAY SEE SOME BREEZY WEST
WINDS WITH GUSTS UPO TO 25KTS. KBIL WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 15KTS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
REGION WIDE FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MOUNTAINS WILL
BE PARTIALLY OBSCUTRED AFTER 08Z AS MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS BUILD IN. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 035/059 031/060 034/052 023/039 020/041 021/040 019/043
01/B 10/U 16/W 22/J 43/J 11/B 11/B
LVM 035/054 033/054 034/045 023/039 021/036 021/037 019/039
11/N 20/N 38/W 33/J 42/J 22/J 22/J
HDN 030/061 028/064 031/053 020/041 018/041 019/042 016/044
01/B 20/U 07/W 43/J 44/J 22/J 22/J
MLS 028/054 028/058 031/051 020/033 015/032 013/034 012/036
00/B 20/U 04/W 52/J 23/J 11/B 11/B
4BQ 028/059 029/061 036/056 023/039 019/036 015/039 014/040
00/U 00/U 04/W 32/J 33/J 11/B 11/B
BHK 027/053 027/056 031/051 020/032 013/029 009/031 009/032
00/B 10/U 05/W 63/J 33/J 11/B 11/B
SHR 026/058 026/058 030/052 018/041 015/036 013/038 012/039
00/B 00/U 17/W 33/J 54/J 22/J 22/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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