673
FXUS65 KBYZ 270715
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
115 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND SE MONTANA.
- AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER SE
MONTANA TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
- MILD AND DRY PATTERN PREVAILS TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
SPLITTING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH RESIDUAL ENERGY FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS, AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN STATE LINE. THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS AND FAR SE MONTANA BOTH SHOW A 40-60% CHANCE FOR SEEING
AT LEAST A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH SITS
UNDER 25%. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND PLAINS
MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER SE
MONTANA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. THIS IS A VERY
CONDITIONAL THREAT WITH A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE THROUGH PERIOD,
SO CURRENTLY THE SPC OUTLOOK IS JUST FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS PERIOD. SOMETHING TO MONITOR ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE
OUTDOOR PLANS.
MOUNTAIN SNOW POTENTIAL CONTINUES TO DIMINISH WITH NEGLIGIBLE
PROBABILITIES NOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW EVEN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. SO, AS WE TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY, THIS SYSTEM HAS
REALLY BECOME A LITTLE TO NO IMPACT SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SPLIT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT
TWO AFTERNOONS THANKS TO PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION.
TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND CONTINUE TO TREND DRY WITH SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AS A FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS AND STICKS
AROUND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STICK IN THE 65-75 DEGREE RANGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLUSTER ANALYSIS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS
LEANING TOWARD RIDGING (POTENTIALLY STRONG RIDGING) DEVELOPING FOR
NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. LOOKS LIKE A VERY MILD AND
DRY FALL WEEK FROM TUESDAY BEYOND. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY THOUGH A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 20
TO 30KTS OVER SE MONTANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONGER WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
INCREASE SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS EVENING,
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA (KEKA, KBHK), WITH
LOCAL MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064 047/068 046/074 050/072 048/070 049/071 049/063
1/E 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 22/W
LVM 063 039/068 039/073 044/073 042/073 044/073 043/065
1/E 22/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 22/W
HDN 068 045/068 043/075 046/073 045/072 046/073 046/065
1/B 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 12/W
MLS 068 052/069 047/073 050/071 047/069 050/071 049/064
1/B 21/E 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B
4BQ 069 054/068 048/073 050/072 048/071 051/073 050/065
1/B 31/E 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W
BHK 069 050/070 046/073 048/072 043/067 045/071 045/063
2/W 42/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B
SHR 068 046/065 041/072 042/072 044/072 044/073 044/064
1/B 23/W 10/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 13/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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