145
FXUS65 KBYZ 261901
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
101 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WORK WEEK.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
- HEAVY SMOKE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY ARE POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
- LOW RISK (10-30%) OF DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS...
TODAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH A FEW NOTABLE DIFFERENCES.
THE FIRST OF WHICH IS THAT THERE IS A MUCH HIGHER CONCENTRATION
OF WILDFIRE SMOKE OVER THE REGION, ESEPCAILLY NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA. THE ASOS AT KMLS IS EVEN REPORTING SOME VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AS OF THE LATEST OBSERVATION. THIS SMOKE WILL AID IN
KEEPING TEMPS EVEN COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. DUE TO THIS I
LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY BY A FEW DEGREES REGION WIDE. THE
EASTERN MONTANA PLAINS SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO BREAK THE TRIPLE
DIGIT MARK BUT THIS IS VIRTUALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION NOW FOR
BILLINGS.
WE ARE WATCHING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS. TODAY'S
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE A TOUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
YESTERDAY'S FEATURE. INVERTED-V STYLE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY OF GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT, BUT NOW WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED, THIS MAY DIMINISH
THE THREAT BY KEEPING THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. PWAT
VALUES ARE AROUND 1.1" NEAR SHERIDAN WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SIMILAR FASHION TO WHAT WE SAW WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS YESTERDAY.
THE UNFORTUNATE NEWS IS THAT THERE IS REALLY NO PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK AND THUS THE RIDGE SHOWS LITTLE
TO NO SIGNS OF CHANGING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 90S TO
100S APPEAR LIKELY TO STICK AROUND INTO FOR THE REMAINDER OF JULY.
THIS COULD PULL SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LOW ANY
GIVEN DAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN. ADDITIONALLY,
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE SEVERAL COMPLEXES IN EASTERN OR WILL ALSO
CONTINUE TO BE AROUND THE AREA DUE TO THE PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY
FLOW.
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN
1/4 OF THE CWA INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHICH COULD TURN INTO A
HEAVY RAIN AND MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WILDFIRE SMOKE, THE
STRENGTH OF THE MONSOONAL FLOW, AND JUST HOW MUCH SURFACE MOISTURE
IS ADVECTED OUT OF THE PLAINS ARE ALL VARIABLES THAT WE STILL
HAVE QUESTIONS AROUND.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL THAT A RIDGE CRASHER EVENT MAY
IMPACT OUR AREA NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WOULD USHER IN COOLER TEMPS
BEHIND IT. THIS TYPE OF EVENT WOULD ALSO BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME STORMS AS WELL WHICH WOULD BE A
POTENTIAL CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER AFTER A PROLONGED STRETCH OF
HOT AND QUASI-DRY CONDITIONS. WMR
AVIATION
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BRINGING THE
THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN 1 AND 7
PM. THE TAF SITES WITH THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM RISK ARE KLVM,
KBIL, AND KSHR. INCREASING WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BRING SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. SURFACE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED IN SOME
LOCATIONS, THOUGH REDUCTIONS IN FLIGHT CATEGORY ARE UNLIKELY.
TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068/092 066/100 066/098 065/098 066/098 066/104 068/097
21/K 10/K 21/U 31/U 10/U 00/G 00/U
LVM 059/093 057/097 058/095 056/094 057/097 059/101 059/096
41/K 30/K 02/T 21/U 10/U 00/G 00/U
HDN 065/095 064/101 064/099 064/099 064/101 064/104 066/098
22/K 20/G 12/T 31/U 10/G 00/G 00/U
MLS 069/100 068/102 069/102 068/099 067/099 068/105 073/098
20/K 22/T 23/T 42/T 21/U 10/G 00/U
4BQ 069/099 068/100 069/099 067/096 066/098 067/101 071/097
22/K 42/T 35/T 51/U 12/T 20/G 00/U
BHK 066/101 065/100 065/101 064/096 063/097 063/100 067/099
22/T 12/T 24/T 52/T 22/T 20/U 10/U
SHR 063/094 061/097 062/096 060/096 061/096 061/101 064/096
33/T 31/U 13/T 22/T 11/U 00/G 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
29-34-42-56-57-63-66-138-139-141-170-172-173-228-235.
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ZONES 30-31-36-58-169.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONES 32-33-37.
WY...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE
199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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