460
FXUS65 KBYZ 030751
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
151 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN MONTANA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY
RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY, THE 4TH OF JULY.
- HOT CONDITIONS WITH DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
TODAY. THIS MORNING, A FEW SHOWERS, AND MAYBE WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
(UP TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE), ARE FORECAST OVER SOUTH- EASTERN
MONTANA BEFORE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH MODEST INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 TO 1500 J/KG) AND
SHEAR (DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20 TO 35 KNOTS), A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER EASTERN MONTANA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE ONE POTENTIALLY LIMITING
FACTOR IS THE MODEST SHEAR WHICH MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ORGANIZE AND BECOME LONG-LIVED, CAUSING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND DECAY RELATIVELY QUICKLY. WITH THAT
SAID, THE RISK IS STILL THERE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA, EAST OF BILLINGS. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS TODAY ARE
HAIL, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
COULD (MODERATE CHANCE) STILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AND PRODUCE
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN.
SATURDAY, THE 4TH OF JULY, IS FORECAST TO BE A HOT AND MOSTLY DRY
DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. WHILE THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (15 PERCENT) THAT SHOWERS LINGER FROM FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING OVER FAR SOUTH- EASTERN MONTANA.
SUNDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO
UPPER 90S. THERE IS EVEN A MODEST, 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING A
FEW 100F READINGS ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS OF EASTERN MONTANA.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS AS A TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION TO THE NORTHWEST. WITH THIS, THE CHANCE OF SEEING A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS LOW.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND 90S. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE "COOLEST" DAY
BEHIND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ALONG WITH THE HEAT, A DAILY CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AS
MOISTURE MOVING IN UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COMBINES WITH A FEW
WEAK SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE RIDGE. WITH THAT SAID, WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET ALOFT AS THIS CAN INHIBIT
CONVECTION IN OUR REGION, KEEPING A MID-LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. LA
AVIATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA. OVER EASTERN MONTANA
(KMLS, KBHK), A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH HAIL, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO START AROUND 18Z OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA (KLVM) AND EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS AROUND 06Z
SATURDAY.
SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES MAY CONTINUE TO REDUCE SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY OVER FAR EASTERN (KMLS, KBHK) MONTANA TODAY.
REDUCTIONS IN SURFACE VISIBILITY ARE NOT EXPECTED. LA/LT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 057/090 062/094 063/088 064/090 063/093 064/089
2/T 30/U 00/U 31/U 32/T 32/T 21/U
LVM 081 050/088 055/089 055/085 055/087 056/089 056/086
3/T 20/U 01/U 42/T 44/T 32/T 32/T
HDN 088 055/091 060/096 063/090 063/092 062/094 063/091
2/T 30/U 00/U 20/U 32/T 41/U 21/U
MLS 086 058/091 063/097 065/089 065/092 063/092 064/091
4/T 40/U 00/U 30/U 25/T 51/B 22/T
4BQ 086 058/090 063/098 065/091 064/093 063/091 063/091
3/T 30/U 01/U 31/U 35/T 62/T 22/T
BHK 084 055/087 060/096 062/088 059/088 060/088 059/089
4/T 41/B 00/U 41/B 34/T 63/T 22/T
SHR 084 053/089 056/094 060/089 058/091 059/090 058/089
2/T 20/U 00/U 01/U 34/T 42/T 12/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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