972
FXUS65 KBYZ 301425
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
825 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, MAINLY IN THE EAST.
THEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY. HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- VERY HOT & DRY SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT;
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
- WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED BOTH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARRIVE FOR MONDAY & TUESDAY.
- INCREASED SURFACE-BASED SMOKE MAY REDUCE AIR QUALITY FOR LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
UPDATE
HAVE UPDATED POPS FOR THE MORNING HOURS. ROBUST CONVECTION FIRING
ACROSS OUR EAST AT THIS COURTESY OF SHORT WAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.
THIS LIFTS E/NE THRU THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS MAY FOCUS ON
EASTERN ZONES AGAIN NEAR DAKOTA BORDERS BEFORE EXITING MT TO THE
EAST BY EVENING. ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL POSSIBLE IN OUR WEST LATE
TODAY. BT
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SHORTWAVE W/ HIGH PWATS (0.8" WEST TO 1.2" EAST) CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED WEAK T-STORMS EARLY THIS
MORNING. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST BETWEEN
18-00Z SO EXPECT AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO BE OF LESS COVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE COOLING INFLUENCE FROM THE MORNING SHOWERS.
SPC STILL HAS OUR EAST HIGHLIGHTED FOR A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/5) OF SEVERE T-STORMS, WITH WIND BEING THE MAIN RISK. HEAVY RAIN
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
BRUNT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD BE FINISHED BY 00Z OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER (I.E. A MUCH EARLIER END EXPECTED TODAY).
THE AIR MASS WILL BE DRIER TOMORROW BUT A TRAILING WEAK SHORTWAVE
SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED WEAK T-STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. IN FACT, WE MAY SEE SOME
WEAK CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING (MODELS TRENDING
IN THAT DIRECTION). WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN PLACE ANY WEAK
FORCING OF LATE HAS BEEN GENERATING AT LEAST WEAK CONVECTION. LOOK
FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S TODAY, THEN 90S TO
NEAR 100F FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE VERY HOT, DRY AND DEEPLY MIXED AHEAD OF A
DEEPENING TROF ALONG THE BC COAST. IT LOOKS AS IF MONSOON MOISTURE
WILL BE SCOURED OUT SO NO T-STORMS EXPECTED. 700MB TEMP PLUME OF
+16C TO +20C SHOULD PUSH TEMPS OVER 100F ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EXTREME HEAT WILL BE A HEALTH RISK FOR FOLKS OUTDOORS, SO PLEASE
PLAN ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH ACROSS OUR
LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM NOON TO MIDNIGHT. THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND
10% OR LESS HUMIDITY WILL ELEVATE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MIXED
WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS BUT
MID LEVEL FLOW IS NOT STRONG (10-20KTS). ALSO, A WEAK COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. OVERALL, THE TIMING OF
THE FROPA AND STRONGER WINDS ALOFT DO NOT COINCIDE WITH PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FROM BEING MORE
TROUBLESOME.
SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL HOT/DRY, WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS
OVER THE EAST. A STRONGER FRONTAL PASSAGE ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT
SETTING THE STAGE FOR NOTABLY COOLER DAYS MONDAY & TUESDAY. THE
ENTIRE PERIOD FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS W/ DRY CONDITIONS AND PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS, AND NO PRECIPITATION.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE UPPER TROF AXIS MONDAY,
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPS MONDAY & TUESDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID
80S. FLAT RIDGING SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO NEAR 90F WEDNESDAY.
SMOKE IMPACTS: POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE AND SHIFT TO UPSLOPE WINDS
MAY YIELD HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS OF SURFACE-BASED SMOKE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THEN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. POORER AIR
QUALITY IS POSSIBLE. SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CLIMATE TIDBITS: SMOKE PERMITTING, THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE
THAT DAILY RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN THIS SATURDAY AUGUST 1ST.
BILLINGS, LIVINGSTON & SHERIDAN MAY GET CLOSE TO AUGUST RECORDS AS
WELL. THESE ARE SUMMARIZED BELOW.
SITE 8/1 FORECAST 8/1 RECORD AUG RECORD
BILLINGS 105 102 (2008) 105 (8/2/2024)
LIVINGSTON 104 101 (2000) 105 (8/5/1961)
MILES CITY 105 104 (2008) 110 (8/7/1995)
SHERIDAN 106 103 (2008) 106 (8/7/1983)
BAKER 102 99 (2022) 108 (8/12/2018)
JKL
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS MORNING EAST OF KBIL.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST MONTANA, IMPACTING KMLS AND POSSIBLY KBHK. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 18Z OVER THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, AND AREAS GENERALLY EAST OF KBIL INTO THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER
EASTERN AREAS, WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS THE MAIN THREAT. VFR
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO
REDUCE SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY AT TIMES. STP/PM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 094 065/098 067/105 071/096 063/081 056/082 058/091
4/W 20/U 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 094 057/096 058/104 062/096 053/081 048/081 050/091
2/T 10/K 00/G 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 095 063/099 063/107 069/098 061/084 054/085 055/093
4/W 22/T 00/G 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U
MLS 091 065/098 065/105 074/097 065/084 055/083 057/092
7/T 12/T 00/G 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U
4BQ 089 063/095 065/101 072/098 066/085 058/083 059/091
4/T 12/T 10/G 00/U 10/U 11/U 11/U
BHK 087 059/094 062/102 068/099 063/085 053/081 054/090
4/T 12/T 10/G 00/U 10/U 10/U 10/U
SHR 091 058/096 059/106 065/099 060/085 052/084 054/091
4/T 13/T 00/G 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONES
29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 117.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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