977
FXUS65 KBYZ 112327
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
527 PM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TRIPLE DIGIT DAYTIME HEAT AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH
WEEKEND.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL CHALLENGE ALL-TIME RECORDS.
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FOR THE
WEEKEND, PEAKING ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT STILL HOT TO START THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS CONTINUES TO BE THE VERY
HOT CONDITIONS AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
REGION...WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT (700MB TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR EXCEEDING 20C AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF 35-40C). WE EXPECT
THIS TO RESULT IN TEMPERATURES OF 100 TO 112 DEGREES, WARMEST ON
SUNDAY. LOWER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST OF BILLINGS CONTINUE TO
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES THIS
WARM WILL THREATEN ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT ALL
CLIMATE SITES SUNDAY. ALONG WITH THE HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES,
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S, WARMEST SUNDAY
NIGHT, WILL EXACERBATE THE RISK OF HEAT STRESS. A WEAK FRONT WILL
SWEEP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL COOL
TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES FOR MONDAY (RELATIVE TO SUNDAY), BUT HIGHS
WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES...AND THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD RANGING FROM 60S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MONDAY.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE HEAT,
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DECREASING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS PERCENT LATER TODAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY. BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA (GUSTS 20S TO 30S MPH)
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS, VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES, AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WE HAVE UPGRADED SUNDAY TO A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PLEASE TAKE CARE NOT TO CAUSE
A SPARK OR DO ANY BURNING.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE EAST A BIT BY MIDWEEK
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO TREND A LITTLE COOLER (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND 90S). MODELS INDICATE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SLIDE
INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH HINTS OF OCCASIONAL WEAK
PERTURBATIONS IN THE MEAN FLOW. THIS MEANS A DAILY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA ALONG WITH HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST REMARKABLE PWATS
POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 1.50 INCHES IN THE AREA FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD. SO ANY DECENT IMPULSE IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW MAY RESULT IN
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE
PWAT TRENDS CLOSELY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
BELOW ARE THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT EACH OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS:
BILLINGS, MT 108F
LIVINGSTON, MT 105F
MILES CITY, MT 111F
SHERIDAN, WY 107F
BAKER, MT 109F
BT
AVIATION
VERY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH DENSITY
ALTITUDE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH SUNDAY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS COMMON. TS/ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 067/110 071/099 071/099 068/090 065/093 066/093 064/093
00/G 00/U 01/U 54/T 51/U 31/U 21/U
LVM 059/107 060/099 061/096 059/089 057/092 057/091 057/092
00/G 00/U 12/T 57/T 63/T 32/T 22/T
HDN 065/111 070/100 069/102 068/093 065/094 065/094 063/094
00/G 00/U 00/G 31/B 51/B 31/U 21/U
MLS 068/111 074/101 070/104 071/095 067/094 067/094 064/092
00/G 00/G 00/G 21/B 31/B 21/U 11/U
4BQ 068/108 076/102 070/105 073/098 068/095 068/093 066/092
00/G 00/G 00/G 00/U 21/U 21/U 11/U
BHK 066/107 073/102 067/102 068/097 064/094 063/093 061/089
00/G 00/G 00/G 01/U 21/U 21/U 12/T
SHR 061/106 068/099 064/102 065/094 062/093 061/092 061/091
00/N 00/U 00/G 13/T 33/T 32/T 12/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONES
29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 123>133.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONE 199.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONE 274.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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