291
FXUS65 KBYZ 171306
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
606 AM MST SAT JAN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WINDS CHILLS THIS MORNING WITH LOCATIONS EAST OF ROSEBUD
COUNTY SEEING WIND CHILLS IN THE -10 TO -25 F RANGE.
- STRONG WINDS RETURN LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. GREATER THAN 50%
CHANCE FOR A WINDS GUST OVER 50 MPH FOR LOCATIONS FROM SOUTHERN
BIG HORN COUNTY TO FALLON COUNTY.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS TUESDAY. LESS THAN 50% CHANCE
FOR A WIND GUST GREATER THAN 50 MPH ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW ZERO IN CARTER AND FALLON COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS, THIS WILL CREATE WIND
CHILLS IN THE -20S F. BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED FROM
ROSEBUD COUNTY AND EAST. TEMPERATURES WARM QUICKLY DURING THE DAY
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S F IN THE EAST TO THE
MID 40S F FROM BILLINGS AND WEST.
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TODAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION. THE GFS IS
INDICATING 700 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS LASTING FROM 00Z
SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY AND 850 MB WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS
FROM 03 SUNDAY TO 06Z SUNDAY. THESE INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WINDS
AND INCREASING PBL HEIGHTS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS TODAY, PEAKING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE PBL HEIGHTS INCREASE OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES INCREASED MIXING COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH A MUCH LARGER AREA OF 1-1.5 KM PBL HEIGHTS.
HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST 850 MB WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR BEFORE THE BEST
MIXING. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION WILL SEE PEAK WIND GUSTS
IN THE 30S AND 40S MPH, BUT THE INCREASED MIXING INDICATED BY THE
HRRR COULD MEAN MORE LOCATIONS GUST INTO THE LOW 50S MPH. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
SOUTHERN BIG HORN TO FALLON COUNTIES WITH THE NBM GIVING THESE LOCATIONS
A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF GETTING A WIND GUST OVER 50 MPH. THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR STRONG WINDS WILL BE TUESDAY. THIS EVENT DOES NOT
CURRENTLY APPEAR AS STRONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR A WIND GUST OVER
50 MPH REMAINING BELOW 50% ACROSS THE REGION.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OF RIDGING TO OUR WEST AND TROUGHING TO
OUR EAST COULD END BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT TROUGHING WILL DRIFT TO THE WEST BRINGING COOLER
CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK PERIOD. FOR THE LATE WEEK
INTO WEEKEND PERIOD, STRONGER TROUGHING COULD BRING EVEN COOLER
CONDITIONS AS THE PROBABILITIES FOR A LOW TEMPERATURE LESS THAN
ZERO BECOME GREATER THAN 50% ACROSS THE REGION. IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW COLD TEMPERATURES MAY GET SO THIS WILL BE MONITORED GOING
FORWARD. TORGERSON
AVIATION
WHILE THE EAST SEES MUCH LIGHTER WINDS TODAY, WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. LOOK FOR GUSTS OF
30-40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KLVM, K6S0 & KHWQ. THE
NEXT COLD FRONT BRINGS A SHIFT TO BRISK W-NW WINDS ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS BECOMING WIDESPREAD AT 30-40 KNOTS.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE FRONT ARRIVES.
VFR WILL PREVAIL REGIONWIDE TODAY THRU THIS EVENING, BUT AREAS OF
LOW STRATUS/MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED EAST OF KBIL LATE TONIGHT,
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AFFECTING KMLS & KBHK. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 047 034/041 021/045 032/047 020/033 013/034 010/025
0/N 00/N 00/U 01/E 22/S 12/S 23/S
LVM 046 026/038 020/042 028/043 019/032 014/036 012/027
0/N 00/B 00/U 00/N 11/B 11/B 23/S
HDN 046 030/041 014/040 025/046 018/032 011/033 007/025
0/U 02/S 10/B 01/E 33/S 12/S 34/S
MLS 038 025/033 011/029 018/038 015/026 009/026 004/016
0/B 02/S 00/B 01/E 11/E 11/B 23/S
4BQ 041 028/036 014/030 020/042 018/028 010/031 007/021
0/U 02/S 00/B 01/E 21/E 11/B 22/S
BHK 031 017/027 001/021 011/032 011/022 005/022 901/012
0/N 23/S 00/B 02/S 21/E 11/E 22/S
SHR 043 025/038 014/039 021/047 013/029 006/034 005/024
0/N 02/S 10/B 01/N 32/S 11/B 23/S
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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