437
FXUS65 KBYZ 151946
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1246 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MONDAY; GUSTY FOOTHILLS WINDS.
- COLD FRONT BRINGS BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY; GUSTS 35-55 MPH LIKELY.
- LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
A FEW INCHES OF MOUNTAIN SNOW.
- A PERIOD OF LOW ELEVATION SNOW AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY; EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...
WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH A DEPARTING 100KT H3 JET WILL BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS TO MAINLY OUR NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY STEEP SO THERE IS SOME CONFIDENCE
HERE, THOUGH SPOTTY PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE NO MORE THAN A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS, TOPS. OTHERWISE, VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S
TOMORROW, W/ AFTERNOON HUMIDITY OF 20-30%, AND POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS
S/SE OF BILLINGS. WINDS WILL BE WELL-MIXED AND BREEZY WITH HIGHEST
GUSTS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, INCLUDING THE PARADISE VALLEY WHERE
BACKED MID LEVEL WINDS WILL ORIENT WITH THE VALLEY AXIS. EXPECT
30-40 MPH GUSTS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND 15-25 MPH GUSTS ELSEWHERE.
GRASS FIRE CONCERNS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED PER THE WARMTH, DRYNESS
AND BREEZY WINDS.
SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH FALLING TEMPS ON TUESDAY PER A STRONG COLD FRONT.
MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW BUT THE BIGGER CONCERN
WILL BE WIND. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO NEAR 985MB
TUESDAY MORNING PER THE ENSEMBLES (A SIGNIFICANT LOW) WITH LOWEST
PRESSURES NEAR SHERIDAN AND SOUTHEAST MT. THIS MAY SET UP A PERIOD
OF MOUNTAIN WAVE POTENTIAL IN THE WARM PRE-FRONTAL REGIME ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE BIGHORNS, WITH A BIT LESSER (BUT NON-ZERO) POTENTIAL
OVER THE BEARTOOTHS. MODELS DIFFER WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF
MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS AND MAGNITUDE OF PRESSURE FALLS, BUT GUSTS ON THE
ORDER OF 40-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AT SHERIDAN, FORT SMITH AND MAYBE
RED LODGE (60% CHANCE). THE FRONT PASSES FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE
DAY, BRINGING RAPID COLD ADVECTION AND A SHIFT TO BRISK NW WINDS.
AGAIN, THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT OF ENSEMBLE SPREAD BUT THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE (50-80%) OF 50+ MPH GUSTS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND OVER OUR
NORTH AND EAST. AS WINDS INTENSIFY OVER OUR EAST LATE TUESDAY, SOME
WRAP AROUND SNOW MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BLOWING SNOW AS WELL, ALBEIT
BRIEFLY. OVERALL, TUESDAY IS A DAY OF CHANGING WEATHER AND POTENTIAL
TRAVEL IMPACTS, SO MONITOR THE FORECAST. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT
WE WILL BE TAPPING INTO CANADIAN AIR SUFFICIENT FOR LOWS IN THE TEENS
TUESDAY NIGHT.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WE WILL SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO UPSLOPE N-E
WINDS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH UPSTREAM TROF PROVIDING PRESSURE FALLS
TO OUR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A PERIOD OF LOWER
ELEVATION SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE TROF AND UPSLOPE
WINDS PROVIDE PLENTY OF ASCENT. PTYPE WILL BE JUST SNOW AND IN FACT,
MODELS SHOW A DEEP (SFC-600MB) DENDRITIC LAYER CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HIGH (NEAR 20:1) SNOW RATIOS DURING THE TIME OF SNOWFALL. ENSEMBLE QPF
IS IN THE 0.05-0.15 INCH RANGE WHICH WOULD YIELD A 1 TO 3 INCH SNOWFALL
WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS.
TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH (TEENS TO MID 20S) FOR TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES
AS WELL. THE FIRST REAL SHOT OF WINTRY WEATHER IN A LONG TIME.
PROBABILISTICALLY, THERE IS A 35-60% CHANCE OF 2+ INCHES OF SNOW.
THERE LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
MAIN TROF, AND THUS LOW CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE FRIDAY
AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY, WITH ANOTHER BRIEF DOSE OF CANADIAN
COLD ADVECTION POSSIBLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
ALL OF WEDNESDAY TO SATURDAY, WITH THE EXPECTATION OF GRADUAL
MODERATION BY THE END OF THE WEEK. ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IS FOR RIDGING
AND 40S TO RETURN BY SUNDAY.
JKL
AVIATION
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS AROUND KLVM/K6S0 WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS AT KBIL WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TURNING SOUTHERLY AFTER 15Z. LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING A SHOWER NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.
KBIL MAY SEE A STRAY SHOWER BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY AND THUS
WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF. MOUNTAINS WILL BE PARTIALLY
OBSCURED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/060 036/053 018/028 007/025 009/035 014/039 018/046
20/U 04/W 32/J 74/J 22/J 11/B 11/B
LVM 033/054 035/044 019/029 009/027 012/031 015/037 019/045
20/N 27/W 35/J 73/J 32/J 11/B 11/B
HDN 028/064 032/056 015/028 007/025 006/035 012/039 015/047
20/U 05/W 42/J 75/J 23/J 21/U 11/B
MLS 028/059 032/051 015/021 004/016 002/026 008/030 009/038
10/U 04/W 41/U 44/J 11/B 11/B 00/B
4BQ 028/061 038/057 018/028 007/019 003/030 010/034 012/041
00/U 04/W 31/U 65/J 12/J 11/U 00/U
BHK 026/056 032/053 014/022 001/013 902/023 004/027 006/033
10/U 04/W 52/J 46/J 12/J 22/J 00/U
SHR 026/059 030/052 014/030 003/023 004/031 009/036 011/046
00/U 16/W 33/J 85/J 23/J 21/U 10/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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