201
FXUS65 KBYZ 301858
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1258 PM MDT SAT MAY 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND; SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (1" HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS)
OVER SOUTHEAST MT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING; ALL SHOWERS AND
STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN.
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE REMINGTON, ELK, ROBERTSON
DRAW, AND EAST SIDE BURN AREAS FROM UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
- SNOW LEVELS FALL TO NEAR 9000 FEET TONIGHT AND SUNDAY; EXPECT A
FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN THE HIGH COUNTRY, WITH WINTRY
IMPACTS LIKELY OVER THE BEARTOOTH HIGHWAY ABOVE VISTA POINT.
- GRADUAL WARMING NEXT WEEK, BUT WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
RECENT BURN SCARS (ELK, REMINGTON, EAST SIDE & ROBERTSON DRAW)
REMAIN IN A FLASH FLOOD WATCH TIL MIDNIGHT. NOT MUCH HAPPENING IN
THESE AREAS AS OF 18Z, BUT EXPECT SHOWER & T-STORM DEVELOPMENT
SOON WITH A RISK OF HEAVY RAIN PERSISTING THRU THE EVENING. NO
CHANGES HERE.
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS SNOW LEVELS FALL TO NEAR
9KFT BY EARLY SUNDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER THE BEARTOOTH HIGHWAY, MAINLY ABOVE VISTA
POINT, FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. CONFIDENCE
HAS INCREASED THAT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION, THOUGH
GREATER AMOUNTS (2-5") WILL BE ON W-NW ASPECTS.
THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE T-STORMS EAST OF BILLINGS
THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING. MORNING ACTIVITY HAS SLOWED THE
DESTABILIZING PROCESS, BUT THERE IS CLEARING OVER POWDER RIVER AND
CARTER BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION THAT MOVED THROUGH
THIS AREA EARLIER. EARLY AFTERNOON HEATING MAY GIVE WAY TO A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, BEGINNING AROUND 21Z IF THE LATEST HRRR
IS TO BE BELIEVED, THOUGH ALL HIS RES MODELS HAVE PERFORMED POORLY
WITH THIS MORNING'S CONVECTION.
SEVERAL AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED,
MAINLY OVER THE EAST, NORTH AND WEST (1.38" OF RAIN MEASURED AT
BIG TIMBER OVER THE PAST 6HRS). SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS INCLUDING
BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN HAVE BEEN MISSING OUT PER SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING AND SURFACE TEMPS THAT ARE COOL ENOUGH TO KEEP INSTABILITY
CAPPED, BUT STARTING TO SEE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PRYORS AND
BIGHORNS AS THIS IS BEING WRITTEN.
18Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LOW STILL WELL TO OUR SOUTH NEAR
THE WY/UT/CO TRIPLE POINT. THERE ARE BACKING MID LEVEL WINDS (I.E.
ASCENT) NOTED IN CENTRAL WY JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER LOW, AND PWATS
ARE QUITE HIGH ACROSS THE REGION. ALL TOLD, EXPECT OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS & EMBEDDED T-STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN ALL AREAS
OVER THE NEXT 12HRS AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AND
LINGERS...FINALLY LIFTING TO OUR NORTH LATE TOMORROW. PRECIP
AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 0.50" AND 1.50", BUT NO
DOUBT THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS W/ THE CONVECTION.
AS ALREADY MENTIONED, ASCENT CONTINUES THRU MUCH OF TOMORROW, BUT
DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEEPEN AT THE SAME TIME, AND THIS WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON PRECIP RATES AND COVERAGE. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
T-STORMS SUNDAY IS IN OUR EAST ALONG THE LIFTING PV MAX. THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM IN FAR
SOUTHEAST MT IN THE AFTERNOON, AND THE HREF DOES SHOW A FEW MODEST
UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE LIGHTER RAIN
SHOWERS TOMORROW, WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPS SUNDAY WILL BE
COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WEST TO NEAR 70F EAST.
PRECIP FOR THE MOST PART WILL END SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS
FURTHER NORTH. LOOK FOR AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS MONDAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT OF SOUTHERN ID. WITH MORE FAVORABLE
SHEAR, SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL HEATING AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS,
THERE MAY BE A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS (THOUGH MODELS NOT
SHOWING THIS YET).
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY AND GRADUALLY FILLS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
KEEPING US UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW. STILL A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
& T-STORMS THESE DAYS, WITH BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE EAST, AND
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. NEXT PACIFIC WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY.
OVERALL, ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS TEMPS
WARM BACK TO THE 70S. HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A SHIFT BACK TO SW FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO THE 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
FRIDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY BUT THE NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS MAY RETURN
BY SATURDAY AS ENERGY EMERGES FROM THE NEXT PACIFIC COAST TROF.
JKL
AVIATION
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN
BRINGING IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY. IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST RAIN. THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EAST OF KBIL COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREATS INCLUDING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS AND HAIL UP TO 1.25
INCHES. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED. WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW
MORNING WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING WIND GUSTS IN THE 20-30 KT
RANGE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052/062 046/071 046/074 048/076 050/076 050/082 053/092
96/W 33/T 51/B 21/B 24/T 31/U 11/U
LVM 042/056 038/067 039/071 040/075 043/072 043/080 045/087
99/W 46/T 52/T 21/B 36/T 32/T 11/U
HDN 050/063 042/073 044/076 045/077 048/078 048/082 050/093
88/T 31/U 41/B 20/B 24/T 41/U 10/U
MLS 054/067 044/071 046/076 048/077 049/077 051/079 052/091
97/T 41/U 61/B 31/B 34/T 42/W 11/U
4BQ 053/065 044/073 047/078 048/077 049/077 050/079 052/090
78/T 31/U 63/T 40/U 25/T 41/B 11/U
BHK 052/070 041/070 044/076 047/076 047/075 047/077 049/086
88/T 51/N 66/T 52/T 24/T 52/W 11/U
SHR 045/063 039/071 040/076 042/077 043/077 043/080 045/091
67/T 24/T 32/T 12/T 15/T 33/T 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 56-58-67.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 67.
WY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 198-199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page