949
FXUS65 KBYZ 070041
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
641 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH STRONG
WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- TRENDING DRIER THURSDAY, THOUGH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA (LOW CHANCE).
- HOT AND DRY THIS WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT EXPECTED
(MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE). WARM OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT IMPACTS.
UPDATE
WEATHER IS PRETTY QUIET AS OF 630PM, COURTESY OF A HEALTHY MID
LEVEL CAP FROM TODAY'S COOLER EASTERLY WINDS, BUT THERE ARE A
COUPLE AREAS OF WEAK CONVECTION APPROACHING FROM THE SW. THIS WAS
TO BE EXPECTED IN THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME AS A SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT
OF SOUTHEAST ID. ENVIRONMENT IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG STORMS
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THE APPROACHING ACTIVITY
WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT 1-2HRS.
THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS MARGINAL (WIND IS MAIN THREAT),
BUT AS A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES OVER THE EAST A
BIT LATER THIS EVENING, NO DOUBT SHOWERS/T-STORMS WITH AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL DEVELOP. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PWATS OF 1.20" EAST OF
YELLOWSTONE COUNTY. FURTHER UPSTREAM THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE OVER
OR MOVING INTO WESTERN ID, SO WE ARE LOOKING AT A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF ASCENT W/ EAST WINDS AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS. IT WILL BE AN
ACTIVE NIGHT OF WEATHER.
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS/WX A BIT EARLY THIS
EVENING PER CURRENT TRENDS IN TIMING, AND RAISED OVERNIGHT POPS
IN THE EAST.
JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING,
GREATEST RISK TUESDAY, WITH STRONG WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN
BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE FORECAST TRENDS DRIER THURSDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS HOT TEMPERATURES BUILD BACK IN OVER THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND SHEAR, A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER SOUTH-EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN
WYOMING (MARGINAL RISK, 1/5). THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE STRONG WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN, THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP INITIALLY OFF
THE MOUNTAINS. OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL MONTANA, THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AS A RESULT OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
CLOUD COVER. WITH THAT SAID, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND
GUSTY WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION WILL COME
TO AN END TONIGHT OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL MONTANA, A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING OVER
EASTERN MONTANA. WHILE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME, RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PUSH
STRONG SOUTH- EASTERLY WIND GUSTS IN THE 30S TO NEAR 50 MPH DOWN
TO THE SURFACE AT TIMES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE LIMITED SHEAR MAY
RESULT IN SHORTER-LIVED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA,
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH-EASTERN MONTANA AND
NORTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN WYOMING COULD RESULT IN LONGER-LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THIS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH- EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH- CENTRAL/EASTERN
WYOMING (MOSTLY A MARGINAL RISK, 1/5 WITH A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT
RISK, 2/5 OVER FAR SOUTH-EASTERN MONTANA). THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE
STRONG WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AROUND 150 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL, THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL
RISK (1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL CAUSING FLASH FLOODING TUESDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BRING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA AND THURSDAY
OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WITH THIS, THERE IS A LOW RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AS TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE 90S TO LOWER 100S, WARMEST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES LOOK
TO REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS,
COMBINED WITH THE HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, WILL INCREASE THE
RISK OF HEAT IMPACTS. LA
AVIATION
00Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY REDUCE CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR.
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, OVER EAST CENTRAL MT (KMLS, KBHK). BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL ARISE OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT WITH GUSTS
25-40 KTS COMMON THROUGH THE MORNING. ARCHER/TS
THUNDERSTORM TIMING
KLVM 00Z-05Z
KBIL 01Z-07Z
KSHR 00Z-06Z
KMLS 05Z-14Z
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062/086 061/091 062/090 062/093 065/102 069/100 069/096
53/T 23/T 50/U 10/U 00/G 00/U 00/U
LVM 053/084 054/090 054/088 055/092 058/099 060/099 062/093
53/T 12/T 41/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B
HDN 062/088 059/091 060/091 060/095 062/103 067/102 068/098
74/T 43/T 40/U 10/U 00/G 00/G 00/U
MLS 062/082 058/088 061/090 061/095 066/102 069/100 069/097
87/T 40/U 41/U 10/U 10/G 00/U 00/U
4BQ 063/086 060/089 061/090 062/094 067/102 070/102 071/099
63/T 52/T 42/T 21/U 10/G 00/G 00/U
BHK 057/077 054/084 057/088 057/092 062/099 065/099 065/095
88/T 50/B 13/T 20/U 10/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 059/087 056/088 057/088 056/094 060/101 064/102 066/097
64/T 34/T 52/T 10/U 00/G 00/G 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
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