927
FXUS65 KBYZ 172118
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
218 PM MST MON FEB 17 2020
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS A CORRIDOR FROM HARLOWTON
TO SHERIDAN THIS AFTERNOON, AS MULTIPLE PIECES OF ENERGY CONTINUE
TO SLIDE THROUGH UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT, MELTING ON ROAD SURFACES, BUT MAY CAUSE
LOCALIZED LIMITED VISIBILITY. THERE ARE ALSO CONCERNS FOR ROADWAYS
BECOMING ICY THIS EVENING, AS TEMPERATURES FALL, AND MELTED SNOW
REFREEZES.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT, AND KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ALTHOUGH THIS FRONT LOOKS REASONABLY STRONG, WITH
FAIRLY DEEP COLD AIR, MOISTURE AVAILABILITY APPEARS A BIT
LIMITED. NONE- THE- LESS, WE SHOULD RECEIVE SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. SOUTHERLY PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE CWA
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT CURRENT MODEL RUNS FAVOR THE FRONT REACHING
MT/WY BORDER. CURRENT MODEL RUNS ALSO KEEP COLD AIR IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH OVERRUNNING TYPE SNOW
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HAVE GREATLY EXPANDED POP COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION FROM TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS WELL
AS TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE KEPT QPF ON THE LOW
SIDE, BASED ON APPARENT AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE
LOWERED TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION, WITH FROPA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
AS FOR WEDNESDAY, SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH
CLEARING THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE, BUT
WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS WELL, WITH EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
REGION.
FROPA EXPECTED TONIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
EAST, WITH TEENS IN THE WEST. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
EAST, AND UPPER 20S WEST. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL, WITH
LOW TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE EAST TO LOW TEENS ABOVE ZERO IN THE
WEST. TEMPS WILL MODERATE WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
TEENS EAST TO UPPER 20S WEST, LOWS WILL RANGE FROM SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO EAST TO LOW TEENS WEST. GILSTAD
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THURSDAY INTO
SUNDAY BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE WESTERN GAP
AREAS FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER AND NYE WILL SEE PERIODS OF
GUSTY TO STRONG WINDS AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND FROM
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY TO ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT. SOME LOCATIONS FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY MAY EVEN TOUCH 50 DEGREES. HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
IT APPEARS A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN TAKES SHAPE WITH
MODELS WANTING TO BRING UPPER TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION. THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME, BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR IN THE COMING
DAYS. STP
AVIATION
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL IN
A NW TO SE SWATH FROM THE SNOWIES TO SHERIDAN COUNTY, WY MUCH OF
THE DAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OFTEN OBSCURED WITH SNOW SHOWERS. OTHER
LOCATIONS, SUCH AS KLVM, WILL SEE LESS IMPACT FROM THE UNSETTLED
NW FLOW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DECREASE INTO THE EVENING. MVFR CIGS
OVER EASTERN AREAS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO VFR. A CANADIAN FRONT
WILL DROP INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AND SPREADING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA ON TUESDAY. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 016/022 004/022 008/037 020/043 025/047 028/049 031/042
46/S 31/U 00/N 00/N 00/U 01/B 24/O
LVM 018/029 010/026 011/040 019/044 023/046 028/046 029/037
34/S 21/N 00/N 00/N 00/N 03/R 34/O
HDN 013/021 003/024 002/038 015/044 021/048 025/049 028/042
46/S 31/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 35/O
MLS 006/011 903/021 002/035 015/041 021/044 023/047 026/040
35/S 21/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 14/O
4BQ 010/018 000/022 001/035 012/042 018/046 021/047 024/041
36/S 22/S 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 24/O
BHK 002/008 910/016 902/032 011/037 016/041 018/043 022/038
42/S 21/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 13/O
SHR 009/023 003/024 000/035 011/042 017/044 019/044 022/038
34/S 32/S 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 35/O
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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