385
FXUS65 KBYZ 272257
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
457 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG LOCAL WINDS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
- AN APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND,
WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY AND COOLING
TEMPERATURES.
- CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN UNSETTLED NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL MT THROUGH 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING. MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN.
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SCATTERED (30-60% CHANCE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN
OVER THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, MOVING EAST BEFORE GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, WITH STRONG WINDS OF 60+ MPH. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN. SPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MONTANA AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN
MONTANA.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING IN. TAKE CARE NOT TO CAUSE A SPARK!
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEFORE SLIDING ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ELEVATED, WITH PWATS
AROUND 140-180% OF NORMAL, ALLOWING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (40-80%
CHANCE) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
TO LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS (20-50% CHANCE). A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE, ALTHOUGH WHICH DAY WILL HAVE THE MOST
POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON. ADDITIONALLY, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, DECREASING TO LOW 70S TO LOW 80S BY SUNDAY.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN UNSETTLED UNDER
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL (GENERALLY 80S) AND ALLOW A LOW DAILY CHANCE (10-40%)
FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE.
ARCHER
AVIATION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON, SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS 35 TO NEAR 50KT GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE KLVM VICINITY.
BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, PRODUCING
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS, SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/088 062/082 057/079 052/082 055/087 058/086 057/083
43/W 23/W 35/T 10/U 10/U 21/U 11/B
LVM 054/082 051/077 045/074 041/079 045/082 045/080 044/077
65/T 67/T 77/T 10/U 12/T 32/W 22/W
HDN 063/091 059/085 053/082 046/085 051/089 052/089 052/086
42/W 23/T 24/T 10/U 10/U 10/U 11/B
MLS 067/092 065/085 058/082 051/082 054/088 058/088 058/085
20/B 12/W 25/T 10/U 11/U 10/U 10/B
4BQ 068/091 064/087 059/084 053/084 056/088 059/089 059/086
21/B 22/T 34/T 10/U 11/U 10/B 11/B
BHK 062/093 062/088 054/085 048/084 051/088 053/089 054/086
11/B 14/W 46/T 20/U 12/W 11/B 10/B
SHR 059/089 056/083 052/082 045/083 050/086 051/086 051/083
25/T 35/T 22/T 00/U 11/U 10/U 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 634 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 29-34-40-42-63>68-141-172-228.
WY...NONE.
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