886
FXUS65 KBYZ 171817
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1217 PM MDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF BILLINGS.
- INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW, STRONG LOW
TO MID LEVELS WINDS WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST. WIND
GUSTS 30-45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. AS WEAK ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE REGION UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED. INTO SATURDAY, ENSEMBLES SHOW THE
MID LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENING WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH. THE
ENERGY AND BEST FORCING LOOKS TO SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH, SO
THE CONFIDENCE FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT
THAT CAN CHANGE. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW PULLS IN MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF. EVEN IF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LOW, BENEFICIAL
PRECIPITATION COULD BE SEEN, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS ABOUT A 40-60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST HALF AN INCH
OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH
ENSEMBLES KEEPING THE LOW TO THE NORTH INTO MONDAY, LOW TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST (HIGHEST IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN). BY MID WEEK CLUSTERS SHOW A GENERAL RIDGING
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN US WITH A MODERATE CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
SEASONAL, IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. TS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORTWAVES, ONE MOVING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AND ANOTHER ON THURSDAY, MAY BRING WEAK
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO THE AREA. LOOK FOR WINDS TO
DECREASE TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EDGES INTO THE REGION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/078 051/080 056/082 057/078 052/075 052/082 056/086
10/B 00/U 02/T 43/T 32/T 11/U 11/U
LVM 044/078 045/080 048/079 048/077 045/075 045/082 048/086
10/U 00/B 06/T 53/T 32/T 11/U 12/T
HDN 048/077 048/080 054/083 055/078 049/075 049/081 053/086
11/B 00/U 01/B 53/T 33/T 11/U 11/U
MLS 048/074 048/076 053/080 054/074 049/072 049/078 052/082
13/T 00/U 01/B 55/T 33/W 10/U 12/W
4BQ 048/073 049/077 054/081 055/073 050/072 049/077 052/082
02/B 00/U 03/T 76/T 35/T 11/U 22/T
BHK 042/071 043/073 047/075 048/069 045/070 044/075 047/078
22/T 10/U 02/T 66/T 34/T 11/U 12/T
SHR 045/073 045/080 050/080 050/073 046/072 046/078 048/082
10/B 00/U 06/T 76/T 46/T 32/T 23/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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