947
FXUS65 KBYZ 041836
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1236 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THEN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 90S TOMORROW.
- SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. RISK OF SEVERE STORMS IS LOW, BUT HEAVY RAIN
IS POSSIBLE.
- CONFIDENCE GROWING FOR HOTTER TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY ZONAL FLOW BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S
SHORTWAVE, WHICH IS NOW MOVING THRU THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THERE IS
A TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA AND ENERGY STILL OFF THE BC COAST WILL
APPROACH TOMORROW. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WE WILL SEE A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST, COURTESY OF
WEAK TROFFING OFF THE CA COAST. IN THE MEANTIME, IT WILL BE DRY
THRU MIDDAY SUNDAY. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY 90S TOMORROW, WARMEST EAST OF BILLINGS ALONG
THERMAL TROF.
ISOLATED T-STORMS SHOULD BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS BY
20-21Z TOMORROW, THEN DRIFT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE WELL-MIXED AND
DRY, WITH HIGH CLOUD BASES, SO ANY OF TOMORROW'S CONVECTION HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. W/NW PORTIONS OF
OUR CWA HAVE THE GREATEST WIND SIGNAL AMONGST HIGH RES MODELS.
CHANCE OF ACTUAL PRECIP IS HIGHEST (30-50%) W/N OF A LINE FROM BIG
TIMBER TO ROUNDUP.
BEHIND TOMORROW'S WAVE WILL BE A PUSH OF EASTERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BACKDOOR COOLING WILL DROP TEMPS
BACK DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR MONDAY & TUESDAY. A COUPLE OF
ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES COMBINED WITH THE HIGHER PWATS (OVER AN
INCH MOST OF THE AREA) WILL BRING HIGHER T-STORM POTENTIAL ON
THESE DAYS. THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS SEEMS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT
THERE IS A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN. THE BACKDOOR
COOLING AND EAST WINDS WILL INITIALLY RESULT IN CAPPING ON MONDAY,
BUT THIS SHOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE ONCE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ARRIVES
LATER IN THE DAY. STORMS WON'T BE JUST DIURNAL EITHER. AREAS IN
OUR NORTH AND EAST ARE LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS AND WET T-STORMS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
T-STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY BUT THE AIR MASS
IS EXPECTED TO TURN A BIT WARMER AND DRIER SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LESS THAN EARLIER IN THE WEEK. LOOK FOR TEMPS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S ON THESE DAYS. THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE A FEW T-STORMS IN
OUR EAST ON FRIDAY, AS THIS LOOKS LIKE THE DAY WE TRANSITION TO
RISING HEIGHTS AS RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING HERE.
ENSEMBLES AND CLUSTER ANALYSES SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEK. HEIGHTS MAY GET REMARKABLY HIGH. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW A
>600DAM HIGH CENTERED OVER UT/WY/CO, BUT EVEN ENSEMBLES SHOW
HEIGHTS JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN 600DAM. THE AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE
DRIER SO NOT EXPECTING T-STORM ACTIVITY NEXT WEEKEND, THOUGH
EVENTUALLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK A MONSOONAL TAP SHOULD BRING SOME
ACTIVITY. IF HEIGHTS BUILD THAT HIGH WITH 700MB TEMPS APPROACHING
20C, WE NOT ONLY WOULD SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT BUT HIGH TEMPS MAY BE
ON THE ORDER OF 105F. THE HEAT MAY ALSO LAST A FEW DAYS (THERE IS
HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DURATION). THE CURRENT PROBABILITY FOR
HIGHS OF AT LEAST 100F NEXT SUNDAY IS 25% AT BILLINGS AND 35-45%
TO THE EAST. NOTHING GUARANTEED, BUT THIS IS LOOKING LIKE THE
HOTTEST AIR MASS YET IN 2026, AND IMPACTS FROM EXTREME HEAT ARE A
CONCERN.
JKL
AVIATION
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OVER THE EAST,
WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON,
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/094 063/086 063/087 061/091 063/088 062/091 064/095
02/U 31/B 73/T 21/B 41/U 10/U 10/U
LVM 055/092 054/084 055/086 055/090 055/086 054/089 056/094
03/T 22/T 53/T 23/T 32/T 11/U 01/U
HDN 059/096 062/090 063/088 060/092 062/090 060/092 062/096
01/U 20/B 73/T 21/U 31/U 10/U 00/U
MLS 064/097 065/089 064/085 059/087 062/088 060/090 062/094
00/U 20/B 77/T 51/B 22/T 21/U 00/U
4BQ 062/099 063/091 064/088 061/088 061/089 061/091 063/095
01/U 20/B 56/T 51/B 21/B 21/U 10/U
BHK 061/097 062/087 059/083 056/082 057/086 056/087 058/091
01/U 40/B 67/T 72/T 23/T 32/T 11/U
SHR 056/096 059/089 060/088 056/088 057/088 057/091 058/096
00/U 21/B 56/T 43/T 32/T 10/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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