305
FXUS65 KBYZ 121033
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
433 AM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TRIPLE DIGIT DAYTIME HEAT AND WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CHALLENGE ALL-TIME RECORDS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY.
- SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT STILL HOT TO START THE WORK WEEK. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE BRINGS A RETURN OF DAILY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY
MID WEEK.
UPDATE
AT 415AM THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA, RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S TO A VERY BALMY LOWER 80S. EVEN BILLINGS AND
MILES CITY HAVE ONLY RECENTLY FALLEN TO THE 70S. CURRENT
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS 700MB TEMPS OF +18C AND EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR
THESE TO RISE TO NEAR +21C BY LATE AFTERNOON...A TRULY REMARKABLE
VALUE THIS FAR NORTH. WE SHOULD SEE SOME ALL-TIME RECORDS TODAY
WITH OVERALL HIGHS RANGING FROM 105-112F. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS CLOUD COVER. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES NOW BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING FROM SOUTHEAST ID...AND
SHOULD SPREAD OVER OUR WEST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. MIXED
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY SO A LITTLE HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY
NOT MATTER. WILL BE INTERESTING TO WATCH.
HEAT RISK AND FIRE WEATHER ARE THE LARGE IMPACTS TODAY. PLEASE
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM THE HEAT, AND BE SURE NOT TO SPARK A FIRE.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING, REACHING BILLINGS
AFTER SUNSET (~05Z). FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, BUT IT'S WORTH
NOTING THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE SIGNIFICANT OVER SOUTHEAST MT
AHEAD OF THE FROPA. THIS WOULD BE A CONCERN TO ANY FIRES THAT
MIGHT BE ACTIVE OVER THE EAST TODAY, ESPECIALLY AT RIDGETOPS.
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ADJUSTED FRONTAL AND LLJ WINDS SOME
TONIGHT.
JKL
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE RECORD BREAKING HOT TEMPERATURES YESTERDAY (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 90S TO 100S) WILL RAMP UP FURTHER TODAY, AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO MAKE IT INTO THE 100S, WITH
SOME LOCATIONS EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST
OF BILLINGS CONTINUE TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE AT ECLIPSING 110.
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED AT ALL CLIMATE SITES
TODAY. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN
THE 60S WEST TO THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE RISK OF HEAT
STRESS. A WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL COOL TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FOR MONDAY (RELATIVE TO TODAY), BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST LOCATIONS TODAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES,
VERY DRY CONDITIONS (AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS PERCENT) AND BREEZY WINDS. EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA (GUSTS 20S TO
30S MPH) TODAY, AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING/NIGHT. WHILE A SMALL CHANCE (10% OR LESS), SOME HI-RES
GUIDANCE INDICATE A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/VIRGA AND PERHAPS A
DRY THUNDERSTORM COULD MOVE NORTH OVER WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES TYPICALLY
INHIBIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, BUT IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR. A
RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 9AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 9PM
THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. PLEASE TAKE CARE NOT TO CAUSE A SPARK
OR DO ANY BURNING.
TEMPERATURES TREND A LITTLE COOLER HEADING INTO MID WEEK AS THE
RIDGE AXIS AND HIGHEST HEIGHTS SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS INDICATE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
SLIDE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH HINTS OF OCCASIONAL
WEAK PERTURBATIONS IN THE MEAN FLOW. AT A MINIMUM, THIS LOOKS TO
BRING AN INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WITH MODERATE CHANCES AT
DAILY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST REMARKABLE PWATS POSSIBLY REACHING UP TO 1.50 INCHES IN
THE AREA FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. SO ANY DECENT IMPULSE IN THE
MONSOONAL FLOW MAY RESULT IN STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR THOSE PWAT TRENDS CLOSELY HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEK.
BELOW ARE THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT EACH OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS:
BILLINGS, MT 108F
LIVINGSTON, MT 105F
MILES CITY, MT 111F
SHERIDAN, WY 107F
BAKER, MT 109F
STP
AVIATION
ISSUED 1030Z. VERY HOT & DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A HIGH
DENSITY ALTITUDE TODAY. VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH
AN EVENTUAL INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE WEST. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY FROM LATE MORNING TO EARLY EVENING, WITH 20-30KT
GUSTS COMMON. TONIGHT, A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL SHIFT WINDS
TO THE NW-N WITH 20-30KT GUSTS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST
MT, A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN SOME MAGNITUDE OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EAST OF KBIL TONIGHT, IMPACTING KSHR, KMLS &
KBHK. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 110 071/099 071/098 069/093 066/094 067/094 067/094
0/N 00/U 01/U 32/T 52/T 41/U 21/U
LVM 107 059/097 061/093 060/092 058/091 058/092 059/092
0/N 01/U 11/B 47/T 64/T 43/T 32/T
HDN 111 070/099 069/101 069/095 066/096 066/096 065/095
0/G 00/U 00/G 21/U 41/B 41/B 21/U
MLS 111 075/100 070/102 071/099 068/096 068/095 068/095
0/G 00/U 00/G 20/U 31/B 21/B 10/U
4BQ 108 076/100 069/103 073/100 070/096 069/096 069/094
0/G 00/U 00/G 10/U 11/B 31/B 11/U
BHK 107 073/102 066/101 067/100 065/094 064/093 064/093
0/G 00/G 00/G 10/U 21/B 21/B 11/U
SHR 108 068/098 064/101 065/096 063/094 063/094 063/094
0/N 00/U 00/G 01/U 44/T 42/T 22/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONES
29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 123>133.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONE 199.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 274.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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