069
FXUS65 KBYZ 191038
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
438 AM MDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. DAILY
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
- ELEVATED WILDLAND GRASSFIRE CONDITIONS EXIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
- COLD FRONT LATE SATURDAY BRINGS A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL BE DOMINATED BY A STAGNANT
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THIS BUILDING
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN RECORD BREAKING
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 700MB WINDS OUT OF THE WEST WILL PROVIDE
EVEN MORE AID IN WARMING THE REGION WITH DOWNSLOPE OF OF THE
TERRAIN. NATURALLY, THIS BRINGS INTO QUESTION FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
THE FIRST THING TO NOTE IS THAT MUCH OF THE REGION RECEIVED A
GOOD HELPING OF PRECIP LAST WEEKEND WHICH WILL FORTUNATELY KEEP
THE LARGER FUELS OUT OF THE REALM OF CONCERN. HOWEVER, THE FINER
FUELS, SUCH AS GRASSES, SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE
OF IF A FIRE DOES SPARK. WESTERLY 700MB WINDS DOWNSLOPING OFF OF
THE TERRAIN WILL BRING WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE
AREA WITH THE REGION OF GREATEST IMPACT TO THE WEST OF BILLINGS.
RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OBSERVATIONS
WEDNESDAY WERE BELOW THE FORECAST BY QUITE A BIT WITH LOW TEENS
COMMON WEST OF BILLINGS AND LOCALIZED SINGLE DIGITS. WITH THE
PATTERN REMAINING RELATIVELY UNCHANGED OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS, I
EXPECT THAT THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE ABLE TO ACHIEVE THE SAME
VALUES, IF NOT LOWER, BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE PLENTY WARM AS MAY LOCATIONS PUSH 80F BY FRIDAY WHICH IS
ROUGHLY 30F ABOVE AVERAGE.
ON SATURDAY THE RIDGE WILL BE SHUNTED EVER SO SLIGHTLY TO THE
SOUTH ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO ZIP OVERTOP. THIS WILL BRING
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE VALUES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALONG
WITH THIS COLD FRONT THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FALLING THROUGHOUT THE EVENT, THEY
ARE FORECAST TO START AROUND 9KFT AND THEREFORE DUE TO THE QUICK
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, NO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL AT ANY OF THE
POPULATION CENTERS, EVEN IN THE FOOTHILLS. (ALTHOUGH A FEW
FLURRIES SUNDAY AM ABOVE 5KFT COULD OCCUR.) IN TOTAL, NO LOCATION
SHOULD SEE MORE THAN 0.25" OF LIQUID.
AS WE LOOK AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, THE PATTEN IS NOT FORECAST TO
CHANGE MUCH. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE WITH QUICK
HITTING SHORTWAVES RIDING ON TOP OF THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH
THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL SIGNAL THAT THIS RIDGE COULD BREAK
DOWN / GET SHIFTED EAST TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER THIS
STILL REMAINS THE MINORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AT THIS TIME.
WMR
AVIATION
12Z TAF DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL
SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS THE SURFACE INVERSION
BREAKS 16-19Z. WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS 35 TO 50KTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 40 KTS ELSEWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH WITH SUNSET THIS EVENING,
THOUGH GUSTS TO 35KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
(KLVM, K6S0, K3HT) OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 081 047/085 051/072 036/061 036/062 040/070 048/072
0/B 00/N 03/W 51/U 00/E 11/E 13/W
LVM 077 049/080 052/070 033/061 038/061 041/069 048/067
0/N 00/N 03/W 41/U 00/E 11/N 23/W
HDN 082 043/085 047/074 034/060 033/062 037/071 045/073
0/B 00/U 03/W 62/W 10/B 11/E 13/W
MLS 077 044/078 045/069 031/053 032/057 036/065 042/068
0/U 00/B 02/W 41/U 00/B 00/E 12/W
4BQ 079 044/081 047/074 035/056 034/060 036/068 045/074
0/U 00/U 00/B 41/U 10/B 00/B 12/W
BHK 075 040/075 042/068 027/048 028/056 031/059 039/066
0/N 00/U 01/B 41/B 00/B 00/E 12/W
SHR 080 043/082 046/078 033/056 033/062 036/070 044/074
0/U 00/U 01/B 63/W 10/B 00/B 12/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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