782
FXUS65 KBYZ 022112
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
312 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
AND INTO MONDAY OVER PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA DUE TO WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS.
- SURFACE-BASED WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL MOVE THROUGH MONTANA AND
WYOMING TODAY INTO MONDAY. FOR THE LATEST AIR QUALITY
INFORMATION, VISIT AIRNOW.GOV.
- A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT TONIGHT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND
BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WORK-WEEK.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH
ONLY AN OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A MORNING COLD FRONT PASSAGE HAS BROUGHT SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA TODAY, AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. WITH
THAT SAID, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S
TO 90S TODAY. ALONG WITH THE HOT TEMPERATURES, BREEZY CONDITIONS
REMAIN OVER EASTERN MONTANA BEHIND THE MORNING COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
LOOK FOR THESE WINDS TO TEMPORARILY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER, STRONGER, COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WINDY
CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
WHILE NORTHWEST TO NORTHEASTERLY PEAK WIND GUSTS IN THE 20S AND
30S MPH WILL BE THE MOST COMMON ACROSS THE AREA, A FEW LOCALLY
STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA AND OVER FAR SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO
NORTHERN WYOMING IN THE BIGHORN BASIN AND BIGHORN CANYON. THESE
WINDS WILL DECREASE MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE HOT,
DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER RISK MONDAY,
BUT THE WIND WILL STILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY IS OVER PORTIONS
OF FAR EASTERN MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA. PLEASE AVOID CAUSING A SPARK DURING THIS TIME, AND IF YOU
SEE A WILDFIRE, REPORT IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND 50S. FOR THOSE CAMPING IN THE MOUNTAINS, LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 30S MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY NIGHT AS LOW AS 7000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN TREND
WARMER WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. AS OF NOW, FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THERE
IS EVEN A MEDIUM CHANCE OF EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES AGAIN OVER THE
PLAINS OF EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE UNCERTAIN STILL,
A COLD FRONT MAY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO SEE
HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEK.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL MONTANA THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS, A WEAK THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE
RULE OUT DURING THE EVENING, BUT THE CHANCE IS LOW (15 PERCENT).
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THIS WEEK. BY LATE
WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR THE RETURN
OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY OVER THE REGION. THIS COULD, IF
IT OCCURS, RE- INTRODUCE A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. LA
AVIATION
SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SLANT RANGE AND SURFACE VISIBILITY.
THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN TO MVFR
FROM SURFACE SMOKE MOVING IN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
FOR SOUTHEAST MT (KMLS). THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES HAVE ABOUT
A 20% OF SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS. A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED
AGAIN THIS EVENING, BRINGING NORTH WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS (MAINLY
FOR KBIL). GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL AGAIN PUSH THROUGH THE REGION
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH GUSTS OF 20-35
KTS EXPECTED. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/074 050/078 053/086 057/092 060/098 066/095 065/092
11/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 050/074 042/078 045/086 050/092 054/097 058/095 056/092
20/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U
HDN 060/075 046/080 051/086 054/092 058/099 062/096 062/094
11/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U
MLS 062/074 047/079 052/086 056/091 060/096 065/095 064/092
01/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U
4BQ 064/076 049/076 054/084 057/089 060/096 065/094 066/092
00/N 00/U 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U
BHK 059/077 044/075 048/082 053/088 056/095 061/094 060/091
11/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B
SHR 058/076 044/079 048/084 051/091 054/096 059/095 059/093
00/N 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
123>132.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR ZONE
133.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR ZONES
274-284.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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