095
FXUS65 KBYZ 110132
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
732 PM MDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH TODAY
AND THURSDAY. HIGHEST GUSTS IN THE WEST TODAY AND EAST THURSDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO
THURSDAY. SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS
7000 FEET.
- DRY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. WARMER TEMPS FRIDAY.
- CANADIAN COLD FRONT LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGS ANOTHER
DOSE OF COOL AND WETTER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS...
OUR MAIN WEATHER MAKER REMAINS THE PESKY UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS
NOW SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARDS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE, INTO OUR AREA, 700MB WIND SPEEDS OUT OF THE
WEST ARE WIDESPREAD IN THE 30 KTS RANGE. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING THAT THE THE ENTIRE REGION AS ALREADY FULLY MIXED OUT TO
NEARLY 600MB, THESE WINDS ARE HAVING NO TROUBLE REACHING THE
SURFACE. IN THE FOOTHILLS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA THIS SETUP
SEEMS ALMOST LIKE WHAT WE WOULD SEE IN THE FALL AS THE WINDS ARE
PERFECTLY ORIENTED TO GAP BETWEEN THE TERRIN. LOCATIONS ALONG THE
US-191 CORRIDOR (HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER) COULD SEE WINDS GUSTS
IN THE 50S MPH RAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THE
STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF A LOBE OF ENERGY THAT IS
FORECAST TO PIVOT AROUND THE MAIN FEATURE AND DRIVE OUT OF THE AB
ROCKIES INTO N. WY. WINDS AT THE 700MB LAYER COULD BE OVER 50KTS
STARTING ROUGHLY AROUND 00Z THIS EVENING. WITH THIS PUSH OF
STRONGER WINDS HOWEVER, THE FLOW WILL SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY
THUS REDUCING THE FLOW BETWEEN MOST MOUNTAIN GAPS. THE ONE
EXCEPTION IS THAT THIS COULD GIVE THE JUDITH GAP AREA A POTENTIAL TO
START GUSTING INTO THE 50S MPH.
WHILE SOME LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT MAY SEE AN EASE IN WINDS,
MAINLY WEST OF BILLINGS DUE TO TERRAIN, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS
AMONGST MODELS IS THAT BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
THE LENGTH OF DAYLIGHT THIS TIME OF YEAR ONLY ALLOWS FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME WHERE THE PBL CAN TRULY DECOUPLE AND KEEP THE
WINDS ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, AS THIS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS
MODEST. RAIN SHOWERS COULD ALSO HELP MIX DOWN ANY OF THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT AS WELL.
SPEAKING OF THE PRECIP, THERE ARE NOW IN INCREASE IN RADAR
RETURNS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AT THIS HOUR. OVER THE
COMING HOURS, AS THE LARGE AREA OF LIFT AHEAD OF THE VORT MAX
PUSHES FARTHER INTO OUR CWA, EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD, ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH-CENTERAL MONTANA. THE ONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THAT DUE TO THE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS,
DOWNSLOPING WILL LIKELY PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN LIMITING THE
PRECIPITATION FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS. THAT BEING SAID,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED.
ALTHOUGH NONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE
SEVERE, A STRAY STRONG DOWNBURST MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE LOW TO
MID LEVELS, D-CAPE CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR 500 J/KG, AND LITTLE
WINDS SHEER AT ALL, THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS OF THE DAY MAY BE ABLE
TO COLLAPSE WITH JUST ENOUGH FORCE FOR A VERY LOCALIZED EVENT.
ALSO WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 7KFT, ANY STORM WITHA DECENT
UPDRAFT WIL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL.
LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS WILL SEE 700MB TEMPS AT OR BELOW 0C FOR
MUCH OF THE EVENT, EVEN LOCALLY DIPPING DOWN TO -5C OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL KEEP SNOW LEVELS ROUGHLY AROUND 7KFT MSL MEANING THAT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGH TERRIN, INCLUDING THE
BEARTOOTH PASS.
LOOKING AHEAD, WHILE THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW DOES DRIFT EAST
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO FRIDAY, THERE WILL STILL BE LOBES OF ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IN NOT EXPECTED, CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE WEEKEND. NO SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.
ONCE THIS FEATURE FINALLY MOVES EASTWARDS ENOUGH THERE IS A
SIGNAL THAT SOME WEAK RIDGING COULD BUILD IN FOR THE START OF THE
NEXT WORK WEEK WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
RETURNING. DO NOT GET TOO USED TO THIS HOWEVER, BECAUSE ANOTHER
WAVE OF ENERGY COULD MOVE THROUGH MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK BRINING
MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER. WMR
AVIATION
EVENING DISCUSSION...LIGHT SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL NOT REDUCE THE
FLIGHT CATEGORY OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE OCCASIONAL
OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED. A DISTURBANCE WILL DROP INTO THE AREA MID
TO LATE EVENING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING TO THE AREA. MVFR
TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING TOMORROW (KBIL/KSHR/KMLS).
NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 40KT
RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SNOW LEVEL WILL DROP TO AROUND
FL065 BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/074 048/080 050/065 047/065 047/073 052/082 059/088
71/N 00/U 66/T 33/T 12/W 11/B 01/U
LVM 039/070 041/077 043/061 040/062 040/070 046/078 052/083
40/N 00/U 37/T 43/T 21/B 10/B 01/N
HDN 046/073 044/079 048/065 044/065 043/072 047/081 053/086
84/W 00/U 65/T 23/T 22/W 11/B 01/U
MLS 047/071 046/077 049/065 046/067 047/072 050/078 054/083
97/W 00/B 32/W 01/B 12/W 00/B 11/U
4BQ 045/069 045/078 049/064 045/063 046/069 048/077 054/083
77/W 00/U 56/T 33/W 22/T 11/B 01/U
BHK 042/067 043/075 044/063 043/066 043/069 045/074 050/080
89/T 00/U 22/W 00/B 12/T 11/B 11/U
SHR 040/069 040/077 044/062 041/059 039/068 042/077 050/083
53/W 00/U 39/T 65/T 33/T 11/B 01/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR
ZONE 67.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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