313
FXUS65 KBYZ 020111
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
711 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY INTO SUNDAY DUE TO THE
HEAT, DRYNESS, BREEZY WINDS, AND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES, AND ADDITIONAL BREEZY WINDS, MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- PERIODS OF SURFACE-BASED WILDFIRE SMOKE ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND, MAINLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. FOR THE LATEST AIR
QUALITY INFORMATION, VISIT AIRNOW.GOV.
UPDATE
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPSTREAM COLD FRONT NEAR GTF-HLN-BTM.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THIS FRONT TO REACH THE NW PORTION OF
OUR CWA BY 04Z, BILLINGS BETWEEN 06-07Z AND SHERIDAN BY 10Z
TONIGHT. TEMPS TODAY REACHED 101-106F WITH HUMIDITIES OF 6-12%,
AND RH RECOVERY WILL BE POOR AS WE AWAIT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
RES MODELS SHOW A DECOUPLING OF THE WELL-MIXED SW WINDS OVER OUR
WEST, WHICH WILL HELP TO SETTLE FIRE CONCERNS A BIT, BUT THE FROPA
ITSELF WILL BRING A SHIFT TO BREEZY NW-N WINDS WITH GUSTS LIKELY
TO REACH 30-40 MPH IN WELL-EXPOSED AREAS. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
WESTERN ZONES CONTINUES, AND KICKS IN OVER EASTERN ZONES AT
MIDNIGHT TO COVER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WINDS LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. PLEASE TAKE CARE TO NOT SPARK A FIRE. FIRE ACTIVITY OVER
THE PACNW HAS BEEN TREMENDOUS TODAY AND IT REMAINS POSSIBLE (IF
NOT LIKELY) THAT WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN SURFACE SMOKE BEHIND
TONIGHT'S FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
DAILY TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE TIED OR BROKEN AT EACH OF OUR MAIN
CLIMATE STATIONS. HIGHS ARE LISTED BELOW. MONTHLY RECORDS WERE NOT
QUITE REACHED.
BILLINGS 104
LIVINGSTON 102
MILES CITY 106
SHERIDAN 104
BAKER 103
JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WHILE WILDFIRE
SMOKE ALOFT MAY REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES IN
SPOTS, INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL ADVECT HOT AND DRY AIR INTO THE REGION, ALONG WITH
CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DOWNSLOPE WARMING OVER THE PLAINS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 98 TO
108 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT TODAY. WITH TEMPERATURES THIS HOT, THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH AN EXPIRATION TIME
OF MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT. WHILE SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY,
THE DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL RESULT
IN SLIGHT COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S,
PROVIDING AT LEAST SOME RELIEF FROM THE EXTREME HEAT. WITH THAT
SAID, THOSE SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT SHOULD REMAIN CAUTIOUS SUNDAY
DUE TO THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF HEAT BEFORE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THIS WEEKEND, THE HEAT AND DRYNESS COMBINED WITH PERIODS OF
BREEZY WINDS AND A WIND SHIFT FROM A COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WIND
SHIFT OF CONCERN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED DRY COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA. PLEASE AVOID CAUSING A SPARK THIS WEEKEND, AND IF YOU SEE A
WILDFIRE, REPORT IT.
A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, ALONG WITH SOME WINDY CONDITIONS. LOOK FOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S DURING THIS TIME,
COOLEST FOR MOST ON MONDAY. AS FAR AS THE WIND GOES, THE
STRONGEST NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ON
MONDAY OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA WHERE GUSTS IN THE 20S TO 40 MPH
ARE FORECAST AND OVER FAR SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING
IN THE BIGHORN BASIN AND BIGHORN CANYON WHERE WIND GUSTS IN THE
30S TO 50 MPH ARE FORECAST. WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY,
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (AROUND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE),
AND MAYBE A WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO (AROUND A 15 PERCENT
CHANCE), LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OVER CENTRAL MONTANA
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF MID- LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. WHERE THIS
BAND SETS UP REMAINS UNCERTAIN, BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT CYCLONIC
INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEGINS TO NUDGE INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH THIS, TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BACK INTO MAINLY THE 80S WEDNESDAY AND UPPER 80S TO 90S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WHILE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE, A
FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY DROP THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST, ALLOWING AN OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN DRY, WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. THEREFORE, WOULD
NOT EXPECT MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION WITH ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT
DOES PASS THROUGH THE AREA.
BELOW IS A SUMMARY OF TODAY'S FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH
DAILY AND AUGUST RECORDS, AT EACH OF OUR MAIN CLIMATE STATIONS.
SITE 8/1 FORECAST 8/1 RECORD AUG RECORD
BILLINGS 105 102 (2008) 105 (8/2/2024)
LIVINGSTON 104 101 (2000) 105 (8/5/1961)
MILES CITY 105 104 (2008) 110 (8/7/1995)
SHERIDAN 104 103 (2008) 106 (8/7/1983)
BAKER 102 99 (2022) 108 (8/12/2018)
LA
AVIATION
A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING
INTO THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WIND GUSTS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS 20-35KTS, STRONGEST AT KMLS. BREEZY
CONDITIONS FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL EASE UP THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE AFFECTED
WITH WILDFIRES BRINGING SMOKE IN FROM THE WEST. THERE IS ABOUT A
30-40% CHANCE FOR MINOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY (DOWN TO 6SM)
DUE TO SMOKE BEING BROUGHT IN BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 070/093 061/075 052/079 054/088 058/094 063/095 064/093
00/K 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
LVM 060/093 050/075 043/078 046/088 052/094 056/093 056/093
00/K 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
HDN 067/095 058/077 049/082 052/090 056/096 061/096 061/095
00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 073/093 061/077 049/079 052/089 058/093 064/095 064/094
00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 073/093 063/078 052/079 055/088 059/092 064/095 064/094
00/K 00/U 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 068/094 059/077 046/077 049/087 055/092 060/095 060/093
00/N 10/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 11/U
SHR 065/097 057/078 046/081 049/088 053/093 058/095 059/094
00/K 00/N 00/U 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES
29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
117-123>128.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONES 129>133.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 199.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM MDT
SUNDAY FOR ZONES 274-284.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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