309
FXUS65 KBYZ 201902
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
102 PM MDT TUE OCT 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
- STORM SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE.
- COLD, WET, WINDY CONDITIONS MAY IMPACT FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
GAMES.
- DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH MONDAY)...
A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
RIDGING ALOFT TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S ON WEDNESDAY,
CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE EACH DAY.
CHANGES ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT OF WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
LOCATIONS AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS
COMPOSED OF TWO PIECES, A CLOSED LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF
CALIFORNIA, AND A COLDER PACIFIC TROF DROPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA. OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING THESE
SYSTEMS MERGE OVER WESTERN MONTANA AND SLIDE EAST INTO OUR AREA
BEFORE SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A STRONG
SHOT OF NORTHERLY WINDS DRIVING MUCH COLDER INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. THESE UPSLOPE WINDS COMBINED WITH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE LEVELS (PWATS) NEAR AN INCH AND STRONG QG FORCING ALOFT
WILL BRING STRONG CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
MORNING. PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THIS PERIOD ARE OVER 60% FROM BIG HORN COUNTY WEST INTO
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AROUND LIVINGSTON, WITH THE HIGH END
OF THE REASONABLE RANGE SITTING AT WELL OVER AN INCH IN THESE
AREAS. MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED THE
FURTHER EAST YOU GO FROM ROSEBUD COUNTY INTO THE DAKOTAS.
THIS ISN'T A TERRIBLY COLD SYSTEM COMPARED TO WHAT CAN OCCUR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, BUT SNOW LEVELS DO DROP FROM AROUND 10KFT FRIDAY
MORNING, TO BETWEEN 5-6KFT BY MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, AND FURTHER
DOWN TO BETWEEN 4-5KFT AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THIS POINT EXPECT IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL TO STAY ABOVE
5000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 8 INCHES
FALLING ABOVE 7000 FEET IN THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA/CRAZY MOUNTAINS.
THE LATEST FORECAST IS SHOWING ONLY 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET.
MENTIONED THE STRONG PUSH OF NORTHERLY WINDS, AND THE
PROBABILITIES FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ARE SUBSTANTIAL IN MANY PLACES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
COMBINED WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AND COLD AIR
INTRUSION, IT WILL BE A BLUSTERY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THOSE WITH FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLANS SHOULD BE
PLANNING FOR THE COLD WINDY AND WET CONDITIONS.
WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT THERE IS STILL TIME FOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST, SO STAY TUNED THROUGH THE WEEK AS
DETAIL FIRM UP.
THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T HANG AROUND LONG AND BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION CHANCES END WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS WILL STICK AROUND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL
HOVER NEAR FREEZING EACH MORNING. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY
WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN EASTERLY
AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039/068 045/075 048/065 037/053 032/050 030/050 031/055
00/U 00/U 08/W 80/U 01/B 11/B 12/W
LVM 036/072 041/074 042/056 026/049 025/051 024/053 026/056
00/U 00/U 2+/W 90/U 01/B 11/B 11/B
HDN 036/071 039/076 045/069 032/054 027/053 027/053 027/057
00/U 00/U 08/W 80/B 01/B 11/B 12/W
MLS 038/072 044/074 050/072 035/050 031/051 030/051 030/054
00/U 00/B 02/W 70/U 01/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 039/074 050/077 055/076 037/050 033/054 033/050 033/057
00/U 00/U 01/B 61/B 01/U 21/B 11/B
BHK 035/070 044/079 049/080 032/049 025/052 026/050 026/055
00/U 00/U 01/N 41/N 01/U 11/B 11/B
SHR 037/074 042/076 046/071 031/051 027/055 028/054 028/059
00/U 00/U 05/W 81/B 00/U 11/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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