781
FXUS65 KBYZ 071835
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1235 PM MDT FRI AUG 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ELEVATED, AND WILL AT TIMES BE
CRITICAL.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL KEEP SKIES HAZY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
AND WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE AIR QUALITY. FOR THE LATEST AIR
QUALITY, VISIT AIRNOW.GOV.
- WARM BUT TRENDING MORE HUMID, LEADING TO INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL IN THE EAST, MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END
THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL KEEP THE AREA HOT & DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE MAIN ISSUES REMAIN FIRE WEATHER AND SMOKE IMPACTS.
REGARDING FIRE WEATHER, LIGHTER/EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL KEEP
FIRE CONDITIONS A BIT RELAXED FROM YESTERDAY (THOUGH DOWNSLOPE
WINDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FAR WESTERN
FOOTHILLS). SATURDAY IS LOOKING HOTTER & DRIER (NEAR 100F, SINGLE
DIGIT RH) WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AND BECOMING DEEPLY-
MIXED/BREEZY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH, UP TO 35
MPH ALONG WESTERN FOOTHILLS. HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
TO A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11AM TO 9PM, AND HAVE ADDED EASTERN
ZONE 133. PLEASE BE CAREFUL NOT TO SPARK A FIRE. SUNDAY'S SETUP
LOOKS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY BUT WITH SLIGHTLY LESS WIND, COOLER
TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITIES. SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
MONSOON MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH WILL APPROACH
SOUTH CENTRAL MT TOMORROW. THIS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY
RESULT IN SOME DIURNAL BUILDUPS OVER THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKAS WITH
PERHAPS VIRGA, BUT THE LOWER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN QUITE DRY (AS
ALREADY MENTIONED). PWATS BEGIN TO CLIMB SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST, AND BY EVENING A WEAK SHORTWAVE W/ A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL JET MAY PRODUCE A FEW T-STORMS NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER.
PWATS CONTINUE TO RISE NEXT WEEK, MAINLY DUE TO PLAINS MOISTURE
BUT WE SHOULD SEE A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE AS
WELL. PWATS EXPECTED TO REACH AN INCH IN OUR EAST BY MONDAY, AND
MAY GET NEAR AN INCH AS FAR WEST AS BILLINGS BY MIDWEEK. THE
GREATER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL, INITIALLY IN THE EAST BUT EVENTUALLY INCLUDING THE
ENTIRE CWA BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. A STRONGER WAVE DROPPING OUT
OF SOUTHWEST CANADA LOOKS TO BRING A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS &
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS (HIGHS IN 70S TO LOWER 80S)
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S MONDAY
TO WEDNESDAY. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THIS TRANSITION TO A MORE HUMID
REGIME WILL BE BENEFICIAL WITH REGARD TO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
BUT THE INCREASING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL CAUSE NEW FIRE
STARTS AFTER THE CURRENT STRETCH OF HOT & DRY DAYS. MOST OF THE
REGION HAS NOT YET SEEN MEASURABLE RAIN IN AUGUST.
JKL
AVIATION
SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MT
AND NORTHERN WY. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR KLVM TO DROP INTO
MVFR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. KSHR HAS SIMILAR CHANCES
FOR MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE AFFECTED ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL SHIFT WINDS FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 20 TO 30 KTS
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061/099 063/093 062/090 063/088 063/084 060/080 058/076
00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W 32/W 43/W
LVM 055/097 055/093 054/091 054/090 053/085 051/080 050/077
00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 12/T 42/T
HDN 056/100 059/094 058/092 059/089 058/086 056/081 054/078
00/K 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W 33/W 43/W
MLS 057/097 061/093 060/089 060/087 060/084 057/080 056/077
00/K 00/U 01/B 11/U 33/T 35/T 53/W
4BQ 060/099 062/094 062/091 062/086 061/084 059/080 057/077
00/K 00/B 00/U 12/T 25/T 45/T 53/T
BHK 054/097 057/089 056/086 055/084 054/082 052/078 051/075
00/K 01/B 12/T 32/W 34/T 35/W 53/W
SHR 055/100 058/094 056/092 057/088 057/083 054/080 054/075
00/K 00/U 00/U 01/U 14/T 45/T 54/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR ZONE
117.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
FOR ZONES 123>133.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY
FOR ZONES 274-284.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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