559
FXUS65 KBYZ 291436
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
836 AM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.
- COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS MID WEEK LIKELY BRINGING AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
A QUICK UPDATE TO REFRESH PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TIMING FOR
SHOWERS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. NOT A BIG CHANGE OVERALL. SPC HAS
REMOVED OUR AREA FROM THE PREVIOUS MARGINAL RISK THAT COVERED
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY.
STILL EXPECTING A FEW ROUNDS OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
WIND GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50MPH RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
TODAY OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES, WITH MOST AREAS IN THE 75 TO
85 DEGREE RANGE. CHAMBERS
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS.
WITH SHORT TERM ENSEMBLES KEEPING UP TO 700 J/KG OF CAPE AROUND
AND 25-35 KTS OF BULK SHEAR, A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH SHOWERS AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING, THIS MAY LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF THE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
INTO SUNDAY, AS TROUGHING APPROACHES, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH COOL AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW. HI-RES MODELS SHOW PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MT DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY AROUND IN THE
MORNING, ONLY A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. A FEW
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT AS DAYTIME
HEATING ALLOWS FOR INSTABILITY TO INCREASE. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEANCE ON ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE MAIN PUSH, BUT
THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THIS
SUBSIDENCE, BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30S (MPH) ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT. ADDITIONALLY, COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN THE CRAZY AND BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS WILL ALLOW FOR
MODERATE CHANCES FOR SNOW SUNDAY MORNING. UP TO A COUPLE INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST PEAKS (ABOVE 10,000 FT). PLAN AHEAD IF
YOU HAVE PLANS TO RECREATE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
ENSEMBLES DEPICT BRIEF RIDGING BUILDING IN FOR MONDAY, ALLOWING
FOR RECOVERY FROM COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BUILD IN TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS TROUGHING SITS OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS LOOKS TO BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S TODAY, COOLING TO THE
70S AND LOW 80S SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BY MIDWEEK INTO
THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. TS
AVIATION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL.
EXPECT MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY TO OCCUR BETWEEN 19Z AND 03Z,
WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY THROUGH 06Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE MOUNTAINS TO BECOME OBSCURED AT TIMES. MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 082 057/075 049/080 054/086 057/086 056/086 055/083
4/W 36/T 10/U 00/U 10/B 10/B 11/B
LVM 078 045/071 038/079 044/082 046/080 045/080 045/078
6/T 78/T 00/U 01/U 31/N 11/B 22/T
HDN 084 054/077 045/082 050/088 051/089 051/089 052/086
2/W 24/T 00/U 00/U 10/U 10/B 11/U
MLS 086 057/077 049/080 052/086 057/089 057/088 057/086
2/W 25/T 10/U 01/U 11/U 10/U 10/U
4BQ 086 059/081 050/082 056/086 057/090 056/089 057/087
2/T 25/T 10/U 11/B 10/U 20/U 10/U
BHK 086 053/082 043/081 047/085 050/089 053/088 053/087
3/W 37/T 30/U 02/W 11/U 21/U 11/U
SHR 081 051/078 044/082 050/085 050/087 049/087 050/085
3/T 24/T 00/U 01/B 01/U 10/U 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
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