688
FXUS65 KBYZ 231941
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
141 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL GRASS FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS WEDNESDAY.
- COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WARM & DRY AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND, WITH NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
A WARM AND DRY FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK IS FORECAST, ALONG WITH
INCREASING WINDS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
PERSISTS OVER THE REGION. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS IN THE
20S MPH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S/70S ON TUESDAY (10-20F ABOVE NORMAL) AND 70S/80S WEDNESDAY
(20-30F ABOVE NORMAL). MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY, BRINGING A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH, A VERY
MODEST GRADIENT IS SHOWN FORMING OVER THE PARADISE VALLEY. MODELS
DO SHOW AN INVERSION DEVELOPING FOR LIVINGSTON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL BRING GUSTY
CROSSWINDS TO THE LIVINGSTON AND NYE AREAS. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF GUSTS 60 MPH OR GREATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DEEP MIXING
TO 600MB IS SHOWN BY SOUNDINGS WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF
8C/KM. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW, IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO 20S PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE LOWEST RHS LOOK
TO BE ALONG THE MONTANA/WYOMING BORDER AND SHERIDAN COUNTY.
ADDITIONALLY, WESTERLY 700MB WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 40S TO
50 KNOTS BRINGING GUSTY CROSSWINDS TO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. THE
CURRENT FORECAST HAS GUSTS INTO IN THE 40S AND 50S MPH FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS. THE LATEST PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS OF 60
MPH OR GREATER FOR THE US-191 CORRIDOR ON WEDNESDAY IS 50%. A
LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE DURATION OF THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AS WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE WNW TO THE
NNE. FOR BILLINGS AND EAST, GUSTS IN THE 20S TO 40 MPH ARE
FORECAST. THE CHANCE FOR GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR GREATER ACROSS THE
PLAINS IS LOW (5 TO 25 PERCENT, GREATEST FROM SHERIDAN TO BILLINGS
AND WEST).
THE VERY WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BRING
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL MT
AND NORTHERN WY. FIRE WEATHER WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM TO
9 PM WEDNESDAY. PLEASE TAKE CARE NOT TO CAUSE A SPARK.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING, BRINGING
AN END TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AREA. A FEW ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOLER FOR THURSDAY, HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. ANOTHER
WAVE WILL BRING A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF RAIN TO RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. IN THE MOUNTAINS, LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST 0.1" OF SNOWFALL IS 10-40% OVER MOST
AREAS, BUT UP TO 60% FOR LOCATIONS NEAR THE FOOTHILLS.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN BRINGING WARM AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50SF ON FRIDAY, 60S/70S FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
MATOS
AVIATION
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. OVERALL, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS,
WITH A PREVAILING EASTERLY WIND TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AREAS. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040/071 048/081 037/050 026/055 032/065 039/073 043/075
01/B 11/N 34/J 10/U 00/B 00/B 12/W
LVM 042/068 052/073 034/050 025/055 032/063 039/071 043/072
01/N 21/N 34/J 10/U 00/B 00/B 12/W
HDN 038/071 046/081 035/050 025/056 028/066 035/072 040/077
01/B 11/B 34/W 10/U 00/B 00/B 12/W
MLS 037/066 045/073 032/044 022/052 028/062 035/068 040/073
00/B 11/B 23/J 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/B
4BQ 038/067 046/078 036/047 026/052 031/063 037/070 042/075
00/B 00/B 12/W 10/U 00/U 00/B 11/U
BHK 030/063 041/072 030/041 019/049 025/060 032/064 036/067
00/B 01/B 32/J 00/U 00/U 00/B 11/U
SHR 035/068 042/080 033/046 023/052 027/064 036/071 040/074
00/B 00/B 24/W 20/U 00/B 00/B 12/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 123>129.
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 274.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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