573  
FXUS65 KBYZ 241931  
AFDBYZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT  
131 PM MDT SUN SEP 24 2023  
   
DISCUSSION  
 
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...  
 
STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRING DRY & WARMER CONDITIONS  
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS REACHING NEAR  
80F TOMORROW W/ GRADUAL MODERATING NIGHTTIME LOWS. SHERIDAN IS  
SITTING ON 127 STRAIGHT DAYS W/O DROPPING BELOW 40F (A RECORD) BUT  
THEY COULD TONIGHT. FORECAST IS FOR LOWER 40S BUT THERE IS A 20%  
CHANCE THEY GET TO 39F.  
 
ONLY POTENTIAL ISSUE INVOLVES A SMALL RISK OF LOCALIZED FOG IN OUR  
FAR EAST LATE TONIGHT. GREATEST CHANCE IS NEAR BAKER BUT IT IS  
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPS NEAR MILES CITY AND EKALAKA TOO, WHICH  
SHOULD BE THE WESTERN EXTENT. THE STRATUS THAT HAS LINGERED FOR  
MUCH OF THE DAY IN OUR FAR EAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH DEW POINTS  
STILL IN THE LOWER 50S. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO EASTERLY THIS EVENING  
SO THERE WON'T BE MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER DRYING...HELPING THE FOG  
CAUSE.  
 
JKL  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...  
 
FOR THE EXTENDED, TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST AND DRIEST DAY WITH  
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S AND MID 80S. RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO  
BREAK DOWN LATE IN THE DAY WITH A TROUGH FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST. A FEW SHORTWAVES WILL RIDE UP THE TROUGH THROUGH  
WESTERN MT, LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE TUESDAY  
NIGHT WILL BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, COOLING HIGH  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY. INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION. WITH  
A STRONGER SIGNAL FOR LIFT BETWEEN MODELS, THIS BRINGS THE  
POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED POPS (15-20%) TO THE WEST AND  
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES  
INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE  
TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE EAST INTO MT, GIVING WAY TO BETTER  
CHANCES FOR SCATTERED PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN THE 50S AND LOW  
60S. WITH DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW A WEEK OUT, PRECIP  
COVERAGE WILL BE IRONED OUT THROUGH THE WEEK. TS  
 
 
   
AVIATION  
 
LINGERING BROKEN MVFR STRATUS EAST OF KMLS-BROADUS WILL DISSIPATE  
BY SUNSET, AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD VFR (SCATTERED  
HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES) TONIGHT & MONDAY UNDER BUILDING HIGH  
PRESSURE ALOFT. THERE IS A SMALL RISK OF FOG NEAR KBHK-KMLS FROM  
09-15Z...AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH TONIGHT. JKL  
 
 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS  
 
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN  
-----------------------------------------------------------  
BIL 049/080 050/085 050/076 048/070 046/068 045/061 044/058  
00/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 22/W 44/W 54/W  
LVM 043/080 046/082 045/074 041/068 040/063 038/056 037/054  
00/U 00/N 01/B 22/W 33/W 45/W 55/W  
HDN 042/081 044/085 045/077 044/072 043/070 041/063 040/059  
00/U 00/U 00/U 10/B 22/W 33/W 53/W  
MLS 047/077 050/081 051/075 049/071 047/069 046/063 044/059  
00/U 00/U 00/U 10/B 22/W 33/W 43/W  
4BQ 044/078 047/082 050/079 050/073 049/074 047/065 046/060  
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 21/B 32/W 42/W  
BHK 044/075 047/075 047/075 048/070 044/069 043/064 042/060  
00/U 00/N 00/U 10/B 22/W 33/W 42/W  
SHR 042/080 042/084 047/079 045/073 044/071 041/063 040/057  
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 12/W 33/W 53/W  
 
 
   
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MT...NONE.  
WY...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
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