928
FXUS65 KBYZ 180715
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
115 AM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.
- AFTER A DRY FRIDAY, INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SEVERE
STORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY BRINGING CHANCES (30-60%)
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND EAST OF
BILLINGS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
MORE ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A SPLITTING
TROUGH WILL CREATE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE
MONTANA/CANADA BORDER. THESE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CREATE A
STRONG CONVEYER BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS
ARE INDICATING PWAT ANOMALIES NEAR 1.4 IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
SOUNDINGS FROM GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING INDICATORS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL CAPPING AND LIMITED SHEAR. SHOWERS AND
GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORED AT THIS TIME. THE HIGHEST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE FAR TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST BUT PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA SHOULD STILL RECEIVE BENEFICIAL RAIN. THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS EAST OF BILLINGS HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES (60-90%) FOR PRECIPITATION. THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE (50-70%) AT SEEING GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES OF
PRECIPITATION.
LINGERING PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-50%) ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE 500 MB TROUGH TO OUR NORTH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES
SOUTH. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S F. TORGERSON
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MONTANA...MAINLY BETWEEN 18Z-03Z. WITH THIS, KMLS AND KBHK HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHTNING (25 PERCENT). ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD
PRODUCE BRIEF ERRATIC WIND GUSTS (40-50 MPH) AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 078 051/078 056/079 056/079 053/072 050/080 054/085
3/T 00/B 01/E 42/T 34/T 00/U 12/T
LVM 078 043/077 048/076 047/077 045/072 045/080 050/083
0/U 00/E 07/T 73/T 23/T 00/U 12/T
HDN 077 049/078 054/081 054/078 050/073 047/081 051/086
2/T 10/B 01/B 52/T 25/T 10/U 12/T
MLS 074 049/074 052/079 053/073 050/071 047/077 052/082
6/T 20/U 01/B 75/T 24/T 10/U 12/T
4BQ 074 050/075 054/078 053/071 051/070 048/076 053/081
3/T 20/B 03/T 87/T 26/T 21/U 13/T
BHK 071 044/072 046/074 048/067 046/070 044/074 047/079
3/T 30/U 02/W 77/T 24/T 21/U 13/T
SHR 074 045/076 049/078 049/073 046/067 044/076 048/081
0/U 10/B 06/T 86/T 68/T 32/T 13/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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