849
FXUS65 KBYZ 082322
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
522 PM MDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM, DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRE
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, AND MAY BE CRITICAL IN SOME AREAS
ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASED WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES.
- COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY SATURDAY, THEN MUCH COOLER SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY; THIS WILL BE THE COOLEST AIR MASS YET OF
THE FALL. MANY LOCATIONS COULD SEE THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY NIGHT.
- STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT TO
MONDAY, WITH RAIN AND WET SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS. GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS OVER MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
WEST OF BILLINGS. HIGHER HILLS OF SOUTHEAST MT MAY ALSO SEE
IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL. POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR
RECREATION. DETAILS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN.
UPDATE
IT WAS ANOTHER DAY OF OVERACHIEVING DRYNESS WITH SOME LOCATIONS
ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS SEEING MIN RHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO POOR RECOVERIES TONIGHT AND A VERY WARM &
DRY DAY FRIDAY, AND RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN/
SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AREAS. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
WEEKEND PRECIPITATION. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE
AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATION DEPENDENT. TODAY'S
MODELS TRENDED A LITTLE WARMER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THUS
GREATEST CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE CLOSER TO THE
FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE AIR MASS
WE WILL TAP INTO IS STILL IN AK/YUKON AND FUTURE MODEL CHANGES ARE
LIKELY. JKL
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. IT STARTS FRIDAY
AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S F AND MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS COMBINE TO
BRING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST INTO AT LEAST THE 20S MPH
ACROSS THE REGION WITH WINDS INCREASING TO THE WEST. MOUNTAIN AND
FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30S
AND 40S MPH. STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER SEPTEMBER PRECIPITATION
VALUES FOR THESE LOCATIONS MEANS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS AND SHERIDAN
COUNTY WYOMING.
STARTING SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DROPS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST BRINGING A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING PACIFIC
MOISTURE AND BREEZY NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS. DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL
TIMING WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
LOCATIONS NEAR JUDITH GAP LIKELY SEEING A HIGH TEMPERATURE IN THE
50S F WHILE LOCATIONS IN FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL GET INTO THE
70S F. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS SATURDAY BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL MANY FACTORS
INFLUENCING THE FORECAST, THE BIGGEST OF WHICH IS HURRICANE RACHEL
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, BUT STILL REMAIN A TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTO WYOMING. RACHEL
WILL BRING AN INJECTION OF MOISTURE, WHICH IS THE MAIN REASON
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
ROSEBUD COUNTY. PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 1 INCH OF
PRECIPITATION ARE 50-100% WEST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY, WITH THE
HIGHEST VALUES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. CHANCES ARE 20-40%
FOR ROSEBUD COUNTY AND EAST, WITH THE LOWEST VALUES BEING NEAR THE
WYOMING BORDER. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE TRICKY WITH THIS
FORECAST, AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW. HEAVY SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE CRAZY/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS, BUT
IS MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN ELSEWHERE. THE CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 6
INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS REMAINS LOW
(<20%).
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S F FOR MOST
WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S F SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNINGS.
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ARE INDICATING THAT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES INCREASE BACK TO SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE 50S AND
60S F. THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MAY IMPACT THE REGION, THOUGH THIS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT
THIS TIME. TORGERSON
AVIATION
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING. EXPECT THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ON FRIDAY TO OCCUR OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST
OF BILLINGS (INCLUDING KLVM, K6S0, AND K3HT), WHERE PEAK WIND
GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS ARE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/086 052/064 034/041 030/042 033/059 041/060 040/054
00/U 01/E 9+/W 96/W 11/B 14/W 43/W
LVM 044/084 047/064 026/041 021/044 026/058 031/058 028/052
00/N 28/W ++/W 95/W 11/B 25/W 53/W
HDN 045/088 048/068 034/046 028/046 031/062 038/062 037/055
00/U 00/B 89/W 96/W 11/B 24/W 54/W
MLS 046/085 050/068 039/047 034/047 034/060 041/061 040/053
00/B 00/B 79/W 97/W 11/U 22/W 43/W
4BQ 046/088 053/072 041/049 036/049 036/062 043/062 041/052
00/U 01/B 58/W 96/W 11/U 34/W 54/W
BHK 044/087 052/073 035/050 031/048 031/060 037/062 035/052
00/B 00/B 78/W 97/W 11/B 24/W 54/W
SHR 039/088 050/073 033/048 027/045 030/061 036/061 034/052
00/U 02/W 89/W 95/W 21/B 25/W 64/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 67-68.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 117-123-124-126.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY FOR
ZONES 274-284.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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