789
FXUS65 KBYZ 160222
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
822 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS, MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MT.
- WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- COLD FRONT BRINGS A COOL DOWN AND LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS.
- INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 70S MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE EAST (20-40 MPH GUSTS).
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, A JET MAX MOVING OVERHEAD AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION MAY BRING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS (15-25%)
TO NORTHEASTERN AREAS, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS.
WARM, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY, AHEAD
OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD THAT WILL DROP INTO
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. WINDS INCREASE DURING THE
MORNING TUESDAY, WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 40-55 MPH OVER THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH GRADUALLY LOWER
WINDS TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
AREAS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES. WHILE THE RECENT RAINFALL AND GREEN
UP SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, THERE ARE
AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN LESS PRECIPITATION, LEADING TO LOCAL ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. TAKE CARE NOT TO CAUSE A SPARK.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT DROP THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY, BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE FAR EAST AND DOWN ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF
THE BIGHORNS WHERE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL (15-50% CHANCE). INCREASED
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR MAY BRING A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO NORTHEAST
MT, WHILE WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DOWN INTO SOUTHEAST
MT AT THIS TIME. SPC CURRENTLY HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE MT INTO THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
GOOD 10-20 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND
70S.
NORTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
WEAK WAVES PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS (20% CHANCE)
AT TIMES, MAINLY ALONG OUR PERIPHERY. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO PROG SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AS UPPER TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE WEST. THIS
WOULD BRING A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DAILY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING INTO THE REGION AND
PLAINS MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
IN THE 70S MOST DAYS THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. STP
AVIATION
02Z DISCUSSION...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TUESDAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM KMLS EAST INTO
THE DAKOTAS FROM 08Z OR SO THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY, BUT SHOULD
NOT REDUCE FLIGHT CATEGORY. WESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT BRINGING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INTO THE TAFS
BETWEEN 08-10Z TONIGHT. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN AROUND
16Z TOMORROW MORNING, WITH GUSTS 25 TO 40KTS COMMON ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THAT TIME THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/089 056/075 050/077 051/083 057/081 055/078 052/078
00/N 00/N 21/U 00/B 03/T 54/T 42/T
LVM 048/086 050/074 043/077 045/083 049/078 047/075 045/077
10/N 00/N 10/U 00/B 15/T 54/T 43/T
HDN 050/089 055/075 047/075 048/083 054/082 052/078 049/078
10/N 11/N 01/U 00/B 03/T 53/T 42/T
MLS 052/087 056/071 047/073 048/078 053/080 054/076 050/077
22/N 22/T 11/U 00/B 02/T 53/T 22/T
4BQ 050/086 057/071 047/072 048/080 054/080 053/074 051/076
21/N 21/N 01/U 00/U 14/T 65/T 33/T
BHK 045/083 050/067 042/069 043/075 047/076 048/072 046/074
22/W 45/T 22/T 00/U 12/W 54/T 23/T
SHR 046/085 053/070 043/071 044/081 050/078 049/073 046/074
00/B 11/N 01/U 00/B 16/T 67/T 56/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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