012
FXUS65 KBYZ 282032
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
132 PM MST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY.
- PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE EAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY;
ACCUMULATION OF 1-2 INCHES NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER.
- LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY;
LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
- DRY WITH PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
WE ARE ENTERING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, AS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
DOMINATED BY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST
WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THERE WILL BE A FEW WEAK PACIFIC WAVES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (TONIGHT, SATURDAY & MONDAY AS IT CURRENTLY
LOOKS) THUS THE WEATHER WON'T BE COMPLETELY QUIET. CURRENT
INDICATIONS ARE FOR HIGHEST HEIGHTS AND WARMEST TEMPS TO OCCUR
DURING THE MIDDLE/LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS INTO THE 50S ARE
LIKELY BY THE WEEKEND, AND CANNOT RULE OUT 60F A WEEK FROM NOW. IF
THERE IS ANY HOPE FOR A COOL DOWN IT WOULD SEEM TO BE AFTER
FEBRUARY 8TH. THERE ARE SIGNS OF THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH PACIFIC AFTER THIS DATE, WHICH COULD BRING DOWN COLDER
CANADIAN AIR. STAY TUNED. IN THE MEANTIME, THE PERSISTENT
DOWNSLOPING AND WARMTH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO INCREASING GRASS FIRE
CONCERNS NEAR THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK...AND THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. LIVINGSTON HAS
RECEIVED ONLY 0.01" OF PRECIP THUS FAR IN JANUARY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPSTREAM TROF MOVING THROUGH ID AND
LOCAL RADAR IS STARTING TO SHOW WEAK ECHOES OVER OUR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS AS ASCENT APPROACHES. LOOK FOR A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW
OVER THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKAS OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, THEN AS THE
WAVE INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE TROF WE WILL SEE PERIODS OF LIGHT
SNOW DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THIS TROF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY (WITH
MORE ENERGY DROPPING FROM THE NW BY LATE TOMORROW). NONE OF THIS
PRECIP LOOKS HEAVY, BUT AREAS NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER SHOULD SEE
1-2" OF SNOWFALL AS DOWNSLOPE WARMING WON'T MAKE IT THAT FAR EAST.
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WILL SEE THE EFFECTS OF DRIER DOWNSLOPE
WINDS, OF COURSE, AND REMAIN DRIER/MILD. A WEAK SURFACE LOW
TRACKING THRU OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY SHOULD BRING
GUSTIER WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS THAN WE ARE SEEING
TODAY. EXPECT 35-45 MPH GUSTS FROM LIVINGSTON TO BIG TIMBER AND
HARLOWTON. THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH.
SATURDAY'S PACIFIC WAVE WILL HAVE WARMER AIR TO DEAL WITH, THUS
LOOK FOR ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER OUR EAST.
TEMPS IN THE WEST SHOULD JUMP INTO THE 50S THIS WEEKEND.
MONDAY'S WAVE MAY BE A BIT SHARPER AND BE ACCOMPANIED BY VERY
MODEST CANADIAN COLD ADVECTION AS IT PASSES...BUT ENSEMBLE SPREAD
INCREASES BY THEN. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR WET SNOW
OVER THE HILLS EAST OF BILLINGS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS
ALREADY MENTIONED, THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER RIDGE INTO
MIDWEEK.
THROUGH ALL OF THIS THE WINDS WILL REMAIN FREQUENTLY GUSTY ALONG
THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. AT THIS TIME DO NOT SEE A SPECIFIC PERIOD
OF STRONGER WIND CONCERNS, BUT OF COURSE THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO
MONITOR IN THIS PATTERN DOMINATED BY PACIFIC FLOW.
JKL
AVIATION
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON, OCCASIONALLY OBSCURING THE
MOUNTAIN TOPS. EAST OF KBIL, INCLUDING KSHR, KMLS, AND KBHK,
EXPECT OCCASIONAL CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO MVFR-IFR
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS SNOW SHOWERS MOVE
THROUGH. ACROSS THE REGION, WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 033/049 032/049 036/056 033/058 035/055 032/050 029/052
10/B 00/B 10/B 00/B 00/B 11/B 10/B
LVM 030/045 030/047 036/051 034/057 033/049 029/044 027/049
20/N 01/N 00/N 00/B 01/B 11/B 10/U
HDN 030/048 030/049 031/056 027/056 029/054 030/049 027/052
21/B 11/B 21/B 00/B 01/B 12/W 11/B
MLS 023/037 018/034 023/048 023/045 024/048 028/044 023/045
44/S 11/E 22/W 00/B 00/B 11/B 10/B
4BQ 028/041 024/038 025/049 026/049 027/050 030/044 026/046
54/S 23/J 12/W 00/B 00/B 11/B 11/B
BHK 017/029 010/023 010/041 022/039 020/039 022/036 018/037
66/S 42/J 25/W 00/B 00/E 11/E 10/B
SHR 028/044 025/045 026/053 025/056 028/051 026/044 022/047
21/B 12/J 11/B 00/B 01/B 22/W 21/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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