279
FXUS65 KBYZ 220740
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
140 AM MDT SUN MAR 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND BREEZY TODAY WITH SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION EARLY
THIS MORNING.
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
- WEATHER SYSTEM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE
AREA.
- NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENTS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A DYNAMIC COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH OUR AREA EARLIER LAST EVENING.
DESPITE DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION, AND SOME BRIEF UPPER DYNAMIC
SUPPORT, PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR AREA IN SOUTHERN MONTANA UNDER-
ACHIEVED. THE BEST FORCING AND DEEPER FRONTOGENESIS REMAINED
FURTHER NORTH, THE MID LEVEL WINDS REMAINED WESTERLY INDUCING
DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COULD JUST NOT REBOUND
FROM SUCH LOW LEVELS. WITH THAT SAID, SCATTERED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION HAS NOW DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING AS A SECONDARY WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
LOOK FOR THIS PRECIPITATION TO DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AS WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS INCREASE, ALLOWING SKIES TO CLEAR AND
DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL DURING THE DAY TODAY. WITH THESE
WESTERLY WINDS, GUSTS IN THE 30S MPH LOOK TO BE COMMON OVER THE
FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS, WITH TEENS TO 20S MPH OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, BUT ENOUGH PRESSURE RISES
OVER THE PLAINS NOW AND THEN WILL PREVENT MUCH TIGHTENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FOOTHILLS. GREATER WIND POTENTIAL
EMERGES BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY WITH ENHANCED PRE-FRONTAL
DOWNSLOPING. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT THE
USUAL SPOTS (LIVINGSTON, BIG TIMBER, HARLOWTON). WE WILL MONITOR
IN CASE WIND POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR THIS AREA.
MODEL ENSEMBLES AGREE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL GET FLATTENED AFTER
MIDWEEK AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND PUSHES
A PACIFIC FRONT THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
INITIALLY LOOKS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS SYSTEM AND MAY NOT PROVIDE
MUCH PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THERE IS A HINT OF BETTER ENERGY
TRAILING BEHIND THIS LEADING TO A STRONGER BAROCLINIC BAND MOVING
ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OUR CURRENT FORECAST
DOES NOT INDICATE THIS YET DUE TO LOW PROBABILITY, BUT WILL NOT BE
SURPRISED IF THE FORECAST TRENDS WETTER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S THURSDAY & FRIDAY, WITH LOWER 60S RETURNING SATURDAY IN WHAT
LOOKS TO BE A RETURN TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. BT/ARENDS
AVIATION
LOW STRATUS PRODUCING POCKETS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION, FOG, AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN
WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
UNTIL WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST BY MID-MORNING, ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS TO CLEAR. VFR CONDITIONS WITH BREEZY
WESTERLY WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. AS
WINDS DECREASE LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION, BUT NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 061 035/066 040/067 046/076 037/052 027/055 030/062
0/U 00/B 01/E 11/B 32/W 10/U 00/B
LVM 059 035/066 041/064 050/069 034/052 026/056 030/061
0/N 00/B 02/W 32/W 21/N 00/U 00/B
HDN 061 032/067 037/068 041/076 035/053 027/056 027/064
0/U 00/B 01/E 22/W 22/W 10/U 00/B
MLS 056 030/061 035/061 042/070 031/046 025/051 027/059
0/B 00/B 00/E 22/W 11/B 00/U 00/B
4BQ 057 035/066 038/065 045/074 036/050 028/052 029/061
0/U 00/B 00/E 11/B 11/B 10/U 00/B
BHK 052 028/059 030/057 038/066 028/042 021/049 026/057
0/N 00/B 00/E 21/B 21/B 00/U 00/B
SHR 056 032/065 035/067 041/076 033/049 024/053 026/062
1/B 00/B 00/B 01/B 22/W 10/U 00/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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