859
FXUS65 KBYZ 231451
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
851 AM MDT THU JUL 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- EXTREME HEAT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES 95 TO 110 DEGREES. TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
TO STAY SAFE FROM THE HEAT.
- HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY. TAKE CARE
NOT TO CAUSE A SPARK.
UPDATE
WEAK SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
THIS MORNING, MAINLY TO THE S/SE OF BILLINGS BUT THERE IS SOME
ACTIVITY TO THE WEST INCLUDING A THUNDERSTORM NEAR BOZEMAN PASS.
OVER TIME WE WILL SEE SHOWER ACTIVITY SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE WAVE
EXITS TO THE EAST, BUT PWATS REMAIN QUITE ELEVATED TODAY AND IF
SURFACE TEMPS REACH THE LOWER 90S AS EXPECTED, SOME SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RELEASED. THUS WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
ISOLATED TS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. BUILDING RIDGE AND MIXED WEST WINDS TURN US MUCH HOTTER AND
DRIER FRIDAY. JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
INCREASING PRESSURE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MT
HAS ALLOWED FOR SHOWERS TO LET UP A LITTLE EARLY THIS PAST
EVENING. LINGERING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP LIGHT TO MODERATE
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AROUND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A WEAK LOW
LEVEL JET HAS A SMALL CHANCE TO BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHEAST MT OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING STRONG. FOR
TODAY, INSTABILITY WILL LEND WAY TO VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH FORCING IS VERY WEAK, SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING STRONG OUTSIDE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS. ENERGY RIDING THE
RIDGE FRIDAY BRINGS SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN MT
(MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN). INTO SATURDAY, ENSEMBLES SHOW
WEAK ENERGY MOVING IN UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. WITH THIS PATTERN AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF AN INCH PLUS, SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE IN STORE SATURDAY (10-20% CHANCE).
BESIDES THESE PRECIP CHANCES, THE HEAT WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO 110 DEGREES
F. AS A RESULT, AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS OVER THE WEEKEND, MAKE
SURE TO TAKE THE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO STAY SAFE. WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS (WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH)
NORTH AND WEST OF BILLINGS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY. THOSE WHO HAVEN'T RECEIVED RECENT PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE CAREFUL TO NOT CAUSE A SPARK. WITH RIDGING CONTINUING,
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 CONTINUE INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. TS
AVIATION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
ALONG OR NEAR THE MT/WY BORDER. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF MONTANA. STRONGER STORM
CELLS WILL BE SPOTTY (<15%), BUT MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM THE PACIFIC NW MAY
PRODUCE SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AT TIMES, BUT SURFACE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 069/102 069/105 069/101 069/096 068/097 068/097
2/T 20/G 11/G 21/G 21/U 21/U 10/U
LVM 091 059/098 060/100 060/099 059/094 058/095 058/095
2/T 21/U 12/T 21/U 22/T 21/U 11/U
HDN 093 064/102 065/106 066/102 067/099 066/099 066/099
2/T 20/G 11/G 20/G 20/U 11/U 21/U
MLS 094 068/103 068/108 072/103 070/100 070/101 069/100
1/B 00/G 00/G 30/G 21/U 21/G 21/U
4BQ 088 065/100 068/106 071/101 069/100 069/099 068/098
4/T 20/U 00/G 20/G 21/U 22/T 32/T
BHK 091 063/101 064/107 069/102 065/100 065/099 064/098
2/T 20/G 00/G 30/G 21/U 22/T 22/T
SHR 087 059/097 063/102 065/099 064/095 063/096 062/095
5/T 20/U 11/G 11/U 11/U 22/T 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONES
29>34-36-37-42-56>58-63-66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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