595
FXUS65 KBYZ 041841
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1241 PM MDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CRITICAL TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY, WITH RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
- VERY WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON.
- POTENTIAL PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SUNNY SKIES AND A SOUTHERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. A WARMER NIGHT IN STORE
TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST
TO WEST OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS INCREASING OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MORE STIRRED UP TONIGHT
HOLDING TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES WARMER IN THE VALLEYS THAT DROPPED
INTO THE 30S THIS MORNING.
THE BREEZY OVERNIGHT CONDITIONS WILL GIVE AN EARLY START TO THE
WARMING FOR MONDAY. 4-CORNERS RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS OVER THE AREA
TOMORROW WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS, WHILE AT THE SAME TIME THE HEIGHT
GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERHEAD DRIVING STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS DOWNSLOPE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES TOWARD RECORD READINGS ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE FOR BILLINGS,
SHERIDAN, AND LIVINGSTON. BAKER AND MILES CITY ARE FORECAST TO BE
4 TO 5 DEGREES UNDER THEIR RECORD LEVELS OF 89 AND 90
RESPECTIVELY. NBM IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LYING AREAS
FROM BILLINGS TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO NE WYOMING TO REACH 90+
DEGREES, WITH PROBABILITIES RANGING FROM AROUND 20% IN BILLINGS,
TO 55% IN SHERIDAN, AND 30 TO 50 PERCENT OVER SOUTHERN POWDER
RIVER AND CARTER COUNTIES.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ELEVATED FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES, AND GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS (20-35 MPH). ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS CONDITIONS WILL BE CRITICAL AS THIS AREA HAS
SEEN MUCH LESS PRECIPITATION OVER THE PAST MONTH THAN AREAS
FURTHER TO THE EAST, SO THE FUELS (ESPECIALLY GRASSES) ARE MORE
FAVORABLE TO CARRY FIRE THERE. WILL UPGRADE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IN THIS AREA TO A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10AM TO 8PM MONDAY. USE
EXTRA CAUTION WITH ANYTHING THAT COULD START A FIRE TOMORROW.
A DISTURBANCE CROSSING NC CANADA WILL PUSH A WEAK DRY COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. OTHER THAN SHIFTING WINDS TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION, THE SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO
THE 70S.
4-CORNERS RIDGE NUDGES BACK INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
KEEPING SUNNY DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES EACH DAY. STRONG
MIXING WILL BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES DURING THE WARMEST
PART OF THE DAY.
FRIDAY IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE A PRE-FRONTAL DAY WITH MODELS
TRENDING TOWARD A FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AS SUCH
TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS ARE TRENDING HIGHER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT THE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE SHOWS TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
MONDAYS FORECAST, WITH POTENTIALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE
AREA. WILL BE MONITORING THIS PERIOD CLOSELY FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THROUGH THIS WEEK. AT THIS POINT THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC IS SHOWING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN SHIFT FOR NEXT WEEKEND. STARTING WITH A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LATEST CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS 68
PERCENT OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING AN UPPER TROF OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY, CLIMBING TO 93 PERCENT FOR SUNDAY, AND 87
PERCENT ON MONDAY. THE ALTERNATE PATTERN SHOWS A STORM SYSTEM
STAYING OVER THE NORCAL AREA WITH WARM BUT UNSETTLED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE AREA. BOTH OF THESE PATTERNS GENERATE PRECIPITATION
FOR OUR AREA, HOWEVER THE FAVORED COLDER PATTERN BRINGS
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH ACCUMULATING MOUNTAIN
SNOWFALL. JUST KEEP IN MIND THAT FALL IS A TOUGH TIME FOR MODEL
ACCURACY IN THE EXTENDED DUE TO THE ATMOSPHERE BEING IN FLUX, AND
THE CONDITIONS IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC (NUMEROUS
TYPHOONS/HURRICANES) CAN HAVE OVERSIZED INFLUENCES ON OUR WEATHER
OVER WEEKLY TIMESPANS. SO, DESPITE THE INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN A
SHIFT TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR NEXT WEEKEND, THERE IS
STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR CHANGES TO PRESENT THEMSELVES. THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS FOR NEXT WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH COUNTRY,
SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD.
CHAMBERS
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 02Z. BETWEEN
02Z AND 15Z SOME MINOR LLWS IS POSSIBLE REGION-WIDE AS GUSTY
WINDS PICK UP FOR KLVM. AFTER 15Z GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP
WITH GUSTS OF 25KTS FORECAST. ALL SITES WILL PREVAIL VFR. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/087 051/079 048/076 047/073 048/079 053/071 041/051
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 66/W
LVM 050/086 048/081 044/079 045/077 045/080 047/070 034/051
00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 03/W 76/W
HDN 047/087 047/079 043/077 043/074 044/082 050/073 041/053
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 56/W
MLS 049/085 049/078 046/076 046/070 047/078 051/071 044/053
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 45/W
4BQ 051/087 051/080 048/078 046/074 049/081 053/076 046/054
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 45/W
BHK 045/085 048/078 045/075 044/071 044/078 050/075 041/054
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 44/W
SHR 046/088 049/081 045/080 044/075 043/081 049/076 040/053
00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 56/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 123-124.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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