401
FXUS65 KBYZ 111028
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
428 AM MDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT THIS WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS AND WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL CHALLENGE ALL-TIME RECORDS AT
ALL CLIMATE SITES.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND, PEAKING ON
SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
SHORTWAVE LIFTING THRU EASTERN MT BROUGHT PESKY SHOWERS AND SOME
EMBEDDED LIGHTNING FROM HYSHAM TO FORSYTH AND MILES CITY DURING
THE NIGHT. AS OF 415AM THIS ACTIVITY HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED. WITH
CLOUD COVER AND A LITTLE WIND, THE MILES CITY AIRPORT STANDS AT A
BALMY 84F. TEMPS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE NOTABLY WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A HOTTER DAY TODAY AS A
STRONG RIDGE BUILDS AGGRESSIVELY FROM THE SOUTH. MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS 700MB TEMPS OF +14C RIGHT NOW, WHICH WOULD BY ITSELF GET
TEMPS TO 100F THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MODELS SHOW THIS RISING TO +17C
OR +18C BY 00Z. TEMPS WILL CLIMB ABOVE 100F ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION TODAY, GENERALLY 100-107F. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO TIE OR
BREAK DAILY RECORDS AT EACH OF OUR 5 MAIN AIRPORT CLIMATE
STATIONS. PLEASE PROTECT YOURSELF FROM THE HEAT!
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. BUMPED UP FORECAST HIGHS IN SHERIDAN A
BIT FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW, BASED ON EXPECTED MIX DOWNS. LOOKING
BEYOND THE WEEKEND, IT APPEARS THAT MONSOONAL FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
A RISK OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION IN OUR WEST BY LATE MONDAY...SO
HAVE MADE THIS ADJUSTMENT AS WELL. WE MAY SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS OVER OUR WEST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL SURGES ARE
ALWAYS TRICKY AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
JKL
DISCUSSION
THROUGH FRIDAY...
A SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REGION IS BRINGING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE
VERY HOT CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION (500MB HEIGHTS OF 596-600
DM SUNDAY). THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES OF 95
TO 110 DEGREES, WARMEST ON SUNDAY WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT (700MB TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 20C AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40C). LOWER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST OF
BILLINGS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT EXCEEDING 110
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES THIS WARM COULD THREATEN ALL-TIME RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT ALL CLIMATE SITES ON SUNDAY. ALONG WITH THE
HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
AND 70S, WARMEST SUNDAY NIGHT, WILL EXACERBATE THE RISK OF HEAT
STRESS. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING, THOUGH IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY FOR SOME AREAS.
VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAT, WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DECREASING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS PERCENT
TODAY AND SUNDAY, AND TEENS TO 20S PERCENT MONDAY. BREEZY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE AREA (GUSTS 20S TO 30S MPH)
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF BREEZY WINDS, VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES, AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT
ON SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TAKE CARE NOT TO CAUSE A SPARK.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE RIDGE EAST A BIT BY MIDWEEK
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND
90S), AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS
WOULD RESULT IN A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
AREA ALONG WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST
REMARKABLE PWATS REACHING UP TO 1.50 INCHES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. ANY DECENT IMPULSE IN THE MONSOONAL FLOW MAY
RESULT IN STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THOSE PWAT TRENDS CLOSELY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
BELOW ARE THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT EACH OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS:
BILLINGS, MT 108F
LIVINGSTON, MT 105F
MILES CITY, MT 111F
SHERIDAN, WY 107F
BAKER, MT 109F
STP
AVIATION
ISSUED 11Z. DRY CONDITIONS W/ WIDESPREAD CLEAR SKIES WILL DOMINATE
THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT, AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL EXCEED 100F
TODAY. THE HEAT WILL RESULT IN A HIGH DENSITY ALTITUDE. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 105 068/109 071/100 072/096 068/089 065/091 066/094
0/G 00/G 00/U 01/U 44/T 52/T 31/U
LVM 102 058/106 060/100 062/094 059/087 058/089 058/092
0/G 00/N 01/U 14/T 67/T 64/T 42/T
HDN 105 064/112 069/101 070/099 068/092 065/093 065/096
0/G 00/G 00/G 00/U 32/W 42/T 31/U
MLS 104 069/111 074/102 071/100 069/093 067/094 067/095
0/G 00/G 00/G 00/U 31/B 31/B 31/B
4BQ 102 068/108 076/104 071/101 071/097 068/094 067/095
0/G 00/G 00/G 00/G 11/U 31/B 31/U
BHK 102 067/107 073/102 068/098 065/095 063/092 062/093
0/G 00/G 00/G 00/U 11/U 32/W 21/U
SHR 103 059/108 068/099 065/099 064/092 062/092 062/092
0/G 00/N 00/U 00/U 13/T 44/T 33/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONES
29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 123>133.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONE 199.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING FOR ZONE 274.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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