024
FXUS65 KBYZ 081851
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1251 PM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE KEEPS SKIES HAZY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND
WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE AIR QUALITY. FOR THE LATEST AIR
QUALITY, VISIT AIRNOW.GOV.
- TRENDING MORE HUMID NEXT WEEK; INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
IN SOUTHEAST MONTANA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER WITH A GREATER CHANCE (20-50%) OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRY/FLAT RIDGING OVER THE REGION. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS 850MB COLD ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK FRONT
NOSING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MT TO THE NW PORTION OF OUR CWA, AND
JUST RECENTLY WE ARE SEEING NW WINDS INCREASE FROM WHEATLAND TO
MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT THRU 9PM
THIS EVENING FOR A COMBINATION OF HOT (90S TO NEAR 100F), DRY
(7-14%) AND BREEZY (20-30 MPH GUSTS) CONDITIONS. PLEASE BE CAREFUL
NOT TO SPARK A FIRE. CURRENT AIR QUALITY IS "UNHEALTHY" FROM
LIVINGSTON TO BILLINGS AND DOWN TOWARD SHERIDAN, WITH SLIGHTLY
BETTER CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH AND EAST. EXPECT MODEST IMPROVEMENT
TODAY AS NW-N WINDS INCREASE. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT AMPLE SMOKE FROM THE NUMEROUS
WILDFIRES OVER THE PACNW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MONSOON MOISTURE OVER SOUTHERN ID
THAT IS LIFTING TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL MT TODAY. ALSO, AN UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE ALONG THE WA COAST IS MOVING EASTWARD. THE COMBINATION
OF THESE UPSTREAM FEATURES WILL YIELD SOME LATE DAY CUMULUS OVER
THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKAS (PERHAPS VIRGA?) AND SOME INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME VERY ELEVATED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY (NEAR 500MB) AND THIS SHOULD YIELD AREAS OF HIGH-BASED
ACCAS AND PERHAPS VIRGA. VERY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SO WILL
NOT MENTION ANY RISK OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY WILL BE NOT-
AS-WARM, NOT-AS-DRY AND NOT-AS-WINDY AS TODAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TOMORROW. BY TOMORROW EVENING,
AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OUT OF WESTERN SD, WE
COULD SEE A FEW WEAK T-STORMS POP UP IN FAR SOUTHEAST MT. THIS IS
UNCERTAIN, BUT IF IT HAPPENS WOULD BE A SIGN OF THE AIR MASS
STARTING TO MOISTEN.
MONDAY & TUESDAY WILL REMAIN WARM (UPPER 80S TO MID 90S) BUT PWATS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE, PER HIGH PLAINS ADVECTION AND TO A LESSER
EXTENT HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL FLOW. ANY CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON
THESE DAYS WILL BE LOW (10-20%) AND CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR THE
DAKOTAS BORDER. THE WEST HALF OF OUR CWA WILL BE MUCH DRIER AND
SEE MIN RHS CONTINUING TO DROP TO THE LOW-MID TEENS. LIGHTNING IN
OUR FAR EAST COULD TRIGGER FIRE STARTS GIVEN THE DRY FUELS.
ENSEMBLES IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING PWATS CONTINUING TO INCREASE,
AND VALUES APPROACHING 1" AS FAR WEST AS BILLINGS BY WEDNESDAY.
FORCING IS A BIT UNCERTAIN BUT IT WOULD APPEAR THAT WEDNESDAY IS
THE FIRST DAY WHEN T-STORM POTENTIAL INCREASES FURTHER WEST TO AT
LEAST INCLUDE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OUR CWA. THIS ALSO DROPS
FORECAST HIGHS TO THE 80S.
EXPECT A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, IN RESPONSE TO ELEVATED
PWATS AND A STRONGER TROF DROPPING OUT OF SOUTHWEST CANADA. NONE
OF THIS LOOKS PARTICULARLY DYNAMIC AND TEMPS WON'T BE COLD (HIGHS
IN 70S TO LOWER 80S), BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTUAL PRECIPITATION
IS MUCH HIGHER (20-50% CHANCE EACH OF THESE 3 DAYS). HUMIDITIES
WILL BE SEASONABLY HIGH TO END THE WEEK (MINS ABOVE 40%) BUT THE
INCREASING RISK OF LIGHTNING COULD BE PROBLEMATIC GIVEN THE HOT &
DRY WEATHER HAPPENING NOW. MOST OF OUR CWA HAS NOT SEEN MEASURABLE
PRECIP YET THIS MONTH, AND WON'T OVER THE NEXT 4 DAYS.
JKL
AVIATION
WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY
TODAY. OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN
WYOMING, SURFACE VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES AS WELL,
OCCASIONALLY BELOW 6SM. OTHERWISE, THE BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 30 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING. LOOK FOR SCATTERED MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS TO PASS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 063/093 062/093 063/092 063/084 060/076 057/075 057/077
00/K 00/U 00/U 00/B 34/T 64/W 43/W
LVM 055/091 054/093 054/091 053/084 051/077 049/076 048/077
00/K 00/U 00/U 01/U 24/T 55/T 55/T
HDN 059/093 057/095 058/092 060/085 056/079 055/076 054/078
00/K 00/U 00/U 01/B 25/T 65/W 44/W
MLS 060/092 059/092 061/091 060/083 057/077 056/077 055/077
00/K 00/B 00/U 12/T 56/T 75/W 42/W
4BQ 062/093 062/093 062/091 063/084 059/076 057/075 056/077
00/K 00/U 10/U 15/T 56/T 75/T 53/T
BHK 056/089 056/089 057/089 055/082 051/075 050/074 050/076
00/K 21/B 12/T 25/T 56/T 75/W 53/W
SHR 057/093 056/094 057/091 057/084 055/077 053/073 051/075
00/K 00/U 00/U 02/T 47/T 76/T 66/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 117-123>133.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 274-284.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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