629
FXUS65 KBYZ 151844
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1244 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING CONTINUES FOR FAR SOUTHEAST MT TODAY, WITH
TEMPS NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR THE 6TH STRAIGHT DAY.
- FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY
FROM SHERIDAN TO MUSSELSHELL COUNTY AND WEST. SLOW MOVING STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 1"/HR OR GREATER RAINFALL RATES.
- ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND; DAILY CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A FAIRLY STATIC 500 MB PATTERN IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WITH ITS FLUCTUATIONS BRINGING TEMPERATURE RANGES FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO 10 F ABOVE NORMAL. MONSOONAL FLOW WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT AS WELL BRINGING HIGH PWATS AND DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP SHEAR VALUES
DOWN HOWEVER, ACTING TO LIMIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND
ADEQUATE SHEAR OF AROUND 30 KTS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH, HAIL UP TO 1 INCH, AND
HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THERE IS A RISK
LEVEL 2 OF 5 FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN PARK COUNTY
(INCLUDING LIVINGSTON) DUE TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HAIL. HEAVY
RAIN WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLASH
FLOODING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AROUND
3 PM AND LAST THROUGH THE EVENING.
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND SEES THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE NORTH
BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S F TO LOW 100S F. THIS
WILL ALSO ACT TO LIMIT SHEAR WHILE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE IS
STILL PRESENT. SATURATED AND SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF ROSEBUD
COUNTY. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
SOME POTENTIAL SLIGHT VARIATIONS SUCH AS COOLER TEMPERATURES,
THOUGH THIS IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. TORGERSON
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON,
MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. WITH THIS, LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN REDUCING VISIBILITY (LOCAL MVFR TO IFR) AND ERRATIC
WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 45 KNOTS ARE THE MAIN THREATS.
TS POTENTIAL TIMES:
KLVM: 19Z-02Z
KBIL: 23Z-03Z
KSHR: 22Z-05Z
EA/PM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 064/091 065/095 066/097 066/095 065/091 064/085 062/085
61/U 41/B 53/T 51/U 11/U 33/T 53/T
LVM 056/089 057/092 058/095 057/094 057/089 056/082 054/084
43/T 44/T 54/T 51/U 12/T 45/T 54/T
HDN 063/093 064/097 066/098 065/096 063/092 062/087 061/086
61/U 51/U 52/T 41/B 11/B 33/W 53/T
MLS 067/095 067/097 069/101 069/099 065/092 063/086 062/086
11/U 32/W 31/G 32/W 10/U 12/W 42/W
4BQ 067/093 066/097 069/100 068/096 065/090 063/084 061/084
11/U 21/B 32/T 52/T 11/U 23/W 44/W
BHK 064/094 062/094 063/097 065/098 060/089 057/083 057/083
00/U 11/B 32/T 52/T 11/U 11/B 32/T
SHR 061/090 060/094 061/096 062/094 059/089 058/084 057/083
45/T 54/T 34/T 55/T 43/T 46/T 55/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ZONES
29-34-42-56-57-64>67-138-139-141-169>173-235.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 32-33-36-37.
WY...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR ZONES 198-199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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