272
FXUS65 KBYZ 241136
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
536 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY; A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF BILLINGS.
- STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING FREQUENT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY & SATURDAY), COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BRISK WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- EXACT TRACK OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AND WILL
AFFECT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE. SUNDAY & MONDAY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY DRY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS.
UPDATE
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS PRODUCING SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED SHOWER/SPRINKLE
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MIDDLE 70S. STP
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST
IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THRU WA/OR. LOW LEVELS WILL
REMAIN DRY, BUT MANY FORECAST SOUNDINGS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOW
AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERY ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
HIGH RES MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE SUGGESTIVE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
AS THIS WAVE PASSES, BEGINNING EARLY IN THE WEST. BY AFTERNOON,
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH DIURNAL INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
WEAK T-STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, BUT SYNOPTICALLY
WE WILL BE UNDER A REGION OF DESCENT. ALSO, EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL KEEP US A BIT COOLER THAN NORMAL, SUPPRESSING AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY, AS HIGH PLAINS MOISTURE RETURN
PUSHES PWATS TOWARD AN INCH. THUS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. INGREDIENTS ARE THERE
FOR A SEVERE RISK (SPC'S OUTLOOK SHOWS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS AS THIS IS BEING WRITTEN), BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE
WILL BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER/SHOWER ACTIVITY TOO EARLY IN THE DAY,
KEEPING INSTABILITY IN CHECK. THAT SAID, THE GREATER RISK SHOULD
BE IN THE EAST AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. RISKS INCLUDE
HAIL, WIND AND HEAVY RAIN SO STAY ALERT.
FLOW AMPLIFIES AHEAD OF A DEEPENING PACNW LOW ON FRIDAY. THIS
LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK (UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S) WITH
HEIGHT FALLS LEADING TO MORE LATE DAY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS, WITH
SOME SEVERE STORMS AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. PWATS REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO MOVE THRU THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND, BUT THERE REMAINS HIGH UNCERTAINTY
IN DETAILS. SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY. THEN, AS THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED, THERE ARE SIGNS OF DRY SLOTTING
INTO MUCH OF OUR REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE LOW LIFTS TO OUR WEST.
HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE SIGNALS ARE SPREAD, AND THE DETERMINISTIC EC/GEM
SHOW A SHARPER TRAILING TROF PASSAGE AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EARLY MONDAY. BY MONDAY THE
MAIN LOW WILL BE WELL TO OUR NORTH AND PRECIP UNDER THE TROWAL
SHOULD BE OVER THE WEST HALF OF MT. THIS LEAVES US IN A DRIER AND
WINDIER REGIME.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCLUDE SEVERE
STORMS FRI-SAT, BRISK WINDS SUN-MON, A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY, AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SUN-EARLY MON. A LOT OF DETAILS
YET TO BE WORKED OUT SO PLEASE MONITOR THE FORECAST, AND BE
PREPARED IF YOU PLAN TO VENTURE INTO THE HIGH COUNTRY.
ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR DRIER WEATHER NEXT MONDAY & TUESDAY AS THE
LOW MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE AND PWATS DROP. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
LOOK FOR COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS SUNDAY & MONDAY (HIGHS MID
60S TO MID 70S) THEN WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL TUESDAY. WITHOUT AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE UPCOMING SYSTEM WE WILL NOT SEE A
SINGULAR "COOL & WET" DAY.
JKL
AVIATION
A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING INCREASED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY, WITH SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS
CROSSING THE AREA THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (20-40%) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN
OVER THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 074 054/073 055/083 057/075 051/068 049/073 051/080
2/W 16/T 32/T 58/T 86/T 32/T 10/U
LVM 075 047/074 048/078 047/068 041/060 039/066 042/074
1/B 25/T 35/T 79/T 98/T 44/T 22/T
HDN 075 052/075 052/085 055/077 050/070 047/074 048/081
2/W 18/T 42/T 78/T 85/T 32/W 10/U
MLS 073 051/074 053/082 058/078 053/071 050/074 051/080
0/B 05/T 71/B 75/T 75/T 33/W 10/U
4BQ 072 051/071 053/083 059/079 053/072 050/074 051/081
2/W 28/T 81/B 65/T 74/T 42/W 11/U
BHK 071 045/073 050/079 055/080 051/073 048/074 048/080
0/B 03/T 81/B 66/T 74/T 42/W 11/U
SHR 072 048/072 048/083 052/075 047/069 043/074 044/079
2/T 68/T 62/T 58/T 74/T 42/T 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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