141
FXUS65 KBYZ 260727
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
127 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO MONDAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
- HEAVY SMOKE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, REDUCTIONS TO
VISIBILITY AND AIR QUALITY ARE POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.
- LOW RISK (10-30%) OF DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MAKE THEIR WAY
EAST THIS MORNING, WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING GUSTY WINDS IN THE
40 TO 50 MPH RANGE.
MODELS ARE DEPICTING HEAVY SMOKE SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY, WITH REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DEPICTED. AREAS OF SMOKE HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST. THIS COULD LIMIT MAXIMUM DAYTIME
HEATING AND DIMINISH THE LOWEST EXTENT OF MINIMUM RH VALUES. TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS IF YOU HAVE VULNERABILITIES TO SMOKE.
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THE REST OF TODAY, WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100SF. HEAT ADVISORIES
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WYOMING
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FROM FOR COUNTIES EAST OF AND INCLUDING ROSEBUD.
AN ADDITIONAL WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORMS DO NOT LOOK TO BE ALL
TOO STRONG, THOUGH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE CHANCE FOR
STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOW, IN THE TEENS AND 20S
PERCENT. LOOK FOR WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS,
THOUGH WEAKER WINDS WILL HELP MITIGATE WORSE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
RIDGING LARGELY CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 90S TO LOW 100SF. THERE LOOKS TO BE LOW CHANCES (10-40
PERCENT) FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK,
WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS BEING GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
PWAT VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY,
100-150% ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE DROPPING NEXT WEEKEND.
A PATTERN CHANGE MAY COME ABOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A FEW MODELS
DEPICT A POTENTIAL RIDGE CRASHER. THIS COULD FINALLY BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS NORMALS, IN THE 80SF. CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.
MATOS
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO SLIDE EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOCAL
MVFR IS EXPECTED WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. VFR WILL OTHERWISE
PREVAIL. EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER THE
PACIFIC NW WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND SOME SURFACE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 099 068/097 067/100 067/098 066/099 066/100 067/102
2/T 20/B 10/U 11/B 20/U 11/U 10/G
LVM 095 059/095 058/097 059/095 057/098 058/099 059/101
4/T 41/B 30/U 11/U 21/U 10/U 00/G
HDN 100 065/098 065/101 065/099 064/100 064/100 065/103
0/K 20/B 20/G 11/U 21/U 12/T 10/G
MLS 101 069/101 069/102 070/102 069/099 068/101 068/103
0/G 20/G 21/G 13/T 21/U 11/G 10/G
4BQ 100 069/100 069/100 069/099 068/097 067/099 068/101
0/K 21/B 11/U 34/T 22/T 11/U 10/G
BHK 101 065/101 065/100 065/101 064/097 063/098 063/100
0/G 22/T 11/U 24/T 42/T 22/T 20/U
SHR 097 063/095 062/097 063/096 061/096 061/097 061/100
2/K 22/B 11/U 12/T 21/U 11/U 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
29-30-34-42-56-57-63-66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR
ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE
199.
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