583
FXUS65 KBYZ 122045
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
245 PM MDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CHALLENGE ALL-TIME RECORDS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HOT, DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- SOMEWHAT COOLER, BUT STILL HOT TO START THE WORK WEEK. EXTREME
HEAT WARNING EXTENDED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN
WY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND FAR SOUTHEAST MT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- MONSOONAL MOISTURE INCREASES BY MIDWEEK BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH SATURDAY)...
RECORD BREAKING HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PEAK TODAY AS A VERY
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT INTO THE 100S, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
EXCEEDING 110 DEGREES. LOWER VALLEY LOCATIONS EAST OF BILLINGS
CONTINUE TO SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF ECLIPSING 110. ALL-TIME RECORD
HIGHS WILL BE THREATENED AT ALL OUR CLIMATE SITES...WITH THE ONLY
FLY IN THE OINTMENT SOME CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST. WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE 60S WEST TO NEAR 80 DEGREES FOR SOME EASTERN LOCATIONS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO EXACERBATE THE RISK OF HEAT STRESS DUE TO
CUMULATIVE FACTORS. A WEAK FRONT WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THIS WILL COOL TEMPS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
FOR MONDAY (RELATIVE TO TODAY), BUT HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES. AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY FOR ALL OF OUR CWA LOWER ELEVATIONS.
BELOW ARE THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT EACH OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS:
BILLINGS, MT 108F
LIVINGSTON, MT 105F
MILES CITY, MT 111F
SHERIDAN, WY 107F
BAKER, MT 109F
WHILE TEMPERATURES TREND A LITTLE COOLER HEADING INTO MID WEEK AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST, THE HEAT DOME WILL STILL BE
INFLUENCING OUR EASTERN ZONES OVER OUR EAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
CATEGORIES 3 AND 4 (MAJOR AND EXTREME HEAT IMPACTS) ARE STILL
LIKELY TUESDAY FROM ABOUT YELLOWSTONE COUNTY EASTWARD. WE HAVE
EXTENDED THE EXTREME HEAT WARNING FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY.
VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS AND HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 100-105 RANGE
CONTINUE IN FAR EASTERN MONTANA AND SHERIDAN COUNTY WY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND FOR THESE AREAS WE HAVE EXTENDED THE EXTREME HEAT
WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE, HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WILL BE COMMON THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. MODELS INDICATE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL
SLIDE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH HINTS OF OCCASIONAL
WEAK IMPULSES IN THE MEAN FLOW. AT A MINIMUM, THIS LOOKS TO BRING
AN INCREASE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WITH A MODERATE CHANCE OF DAILY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AREA. ENSEMBLES HAVE STUBBORNLY
STUCK TO THEIR REMARKABLE PWAT PROGS, REACHING UP TO 1.50 INCHES
IN THE AREA FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. SO ANY DECENT IMPULSE IN THE
MONSOONAL FLOW MAY RESULT IN STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
FIRE WEATHER...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES, VERY DRY CONDITIONS (AFTERNOON HUMIDITY DOWN INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS) AND BREEZY WINDS. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA (GUSTS 20S TO 30S
MPH) THIS AFTERNOON, AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING/NIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (10% OR LESS) OF A FEW
HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/VIRGA DEVELOPING OVER OUR WESTERN AREAS BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING FOR MOST AREAS. ELEVATED CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER IN OUR EAST OVERNIGHT (ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGES) DUE TO A
LOW LEVEL JET AND SLOW RH RECOVERY AS THE WEAK FRONT SLIDES OVER
THE AREA. PLEASE TAKE CARE NOT TO CAUSE A SPARK OR DO ANY BURNING.
BT
AVIATION
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE HIGH DENSITY
ALTITUDE TODAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH
CENTRAL MT THIS EVENING AROUND 03-05Z BRINGING NW WIND GUSTS OF
25-35 KTS. AHEAD OF THIS, A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGING SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS OF 20-35 KTS IS EXPECTED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MT
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THIS, WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BE 25-45 KTS, HIGHEST FOR KBIL AND KMLS. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON WINDS STAYING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AT KBIL, LEFT
LLWS OUT OF THE TAF. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 072/099 071/100 070/095 066/094 067/097 068/095 065/091
00/U 00/U 23/T 52/T 40/U 21/U 21/B
LVM 060/098 060/096 061/092 058/090 058/094 059/092 057/090
01/U 11/B 37/T 64/T 43/T 33/T 32/T
HDN 070/100 069/102 069/097 066/095 066/099 067/096 064/092
00/U 00/G 22/T 42/T 41/U 21/U 21/B
MLS 074/101 070/104 072/101 069/097 068/099 070/096 065/091
00/G 00/G 10/G 22/W 31/U 21/U 21/B
4BQ 076/101 068/104 073/102 070/096 069/099 070/096 067/090
00/G 00/G 00/G 11/B 21/U 11/U 22/T
BHK 073/102 066/103 068/101 066/095 064/096 066/095 062/089
00/G 00/G 10/G 10/B 11/U 21/U 21/B
SHR 068/098 063/102 065/099 064/094 062/097 064/094 061/090
00/U 00/G 01/U 34/T 31/B 12/T 23/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ZONES 29-34-40-42-56-63>66-141-170-172-228.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MDT TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES
30-31-57-138-139-169-173-235.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 32-33-36-37-58.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONES 123>133.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT TO
MIDNIGHT MDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 199.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONE 274.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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