584
FXUS65 KBYZ 020707
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
107 AM MDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS WITH
STRONG WINDS, HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- WARM AND MOSTLY DRY SATURDAY, THE 4TH OF JULY.
- HOT CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK WITH A DAILY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE WEEK. RISK OF SEVERE IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FORECAST
TODAY AND FRIDAY. WITH THIS, A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH DAYS, GENERALLY
EAST OF BILLINGS.
TODAY, THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER MUCH OF EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN WYOMING
WITH A SLIGHT RISK (2/5) NEAR AND EAST OF THE MONTANA AND WYOMING
STATE LINE. THE SLIGHT RISK (2/5) AREA COVERS THUNDERSTORMS THAT
ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OFF A CONVERGENCE ZONE NEAR THE MONTANA
AND WYOMING STATE LINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD THESE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA, THE INITIAL THREAT
IS LARGE HAIL AS THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY STRENGTHEN AND MOVE EAST
INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. LOCALIZED STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL. THE MARGINAL RISK (1/5)
AREA COVERS AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE BIGHORN BASIN
AND LIFT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS OF NORTHERN
WYOMING AND EASTERN MONTANA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH DECENT INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG),
ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH THIS ROUND SHOULD STRENGTHEN
OVER THE PLAINS, BUT LIMITED SHEAR WILL INHIBIT ORGANIZATION AND
UPSCALE GROWTH. THEREFORE, THE MAIN THREAT IS STRONG WIND GUSTS,
THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE. OUTSIDE OF
THIS ACTIVITY, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS OVER FAR
SOUTH- EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
FRIDAY, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A
LOW CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTH-EASTERN MONTANA ONCE
AGAIN. WITH THIS, THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS GREATEST OVER
EASTERN MONTANA, EAST OF BILLINGS, WHERE THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
(1/5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SIMILAR SEVERE PARAMETERS TO
THURSDAY, INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUT
LIMITED SHEAR SHOULD INHIBIT ORGANIZATION AND UPSCALE GROWTH. WITH
THAT SAID, STRONG WINDS, HAIL, A BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN
THREATS, SLIGHTLY FAVORING STRONG WINDS.
MOSTLY DRY AND HOTTER CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND AS LOW
AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO RETURN TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S DURING THIS TIME.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, THOUGH A
DAILY LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNS. DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPERATURES GET, TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MAY INHIBIT THIS POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME, BUT THERE DOES
LOOK TO BE ENOUGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AROUND TO SUPPORT THE
DAILY LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. ON THAT NOTE, THE CHANCE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW AS WELL. LA
AVIATION
05Z DISCUSSION...OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING. THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CROSSING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AT 05Z AND THIS
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTS TO
40KTS THROUGH 10Z AS IT SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD LATE TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOCAL MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 45KTS. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE EAST OF A RED LODGE TO
BILLINGS TO FORSYTH LINE. CONVECTION MAY GET GOING AS EARLY AS
19Z, BUT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE BETWEEN 22Z AND 04Z.
SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES MAY CONTINUE TO REDUCE SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 086 058/086 057/089 062/094 064/090 065/091 064/091
2/T 33/T 20/U 00/U 11/B 12/T 21/U
LVM 079 049/081 049/088 055/090 056/087 057/087 056/088
2/T 23/T 20/U 01/U 21/B 12/T 31/U
HDN 088 057/088 056/092 061/095 062/093 064/094 063/093
2/U 32/T 30/U 00/U 10/B 12/T 21/B
MLS 090 061/086 057/090 063/096 065/093 065/093 065/092
2/U 35/T 60/U 00/U 20/B 12/T 21/B
4BQ 090 060/086 057/089 061/096 065/094 065/093 064/091
2/U 54/T 40/U 00/U 21/B 12/T 42/T
BHK 089 057/083 054/087 059/095 062/092 061/091 061/090
2/T 34/T 40/U 01/U 21/B 12/T 32/T
SHR 086 054/085 052/089 057/094 060/091 060/091 059/089
2/T 42/T 40/U 01/U 01/B 23/T 22/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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