848
FXUS65 KBYZ 061530
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
930 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY THROUGH MID-
WEEK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE TODAY
AND TUESDAY. STRONG WINDS, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN
THREATS.
- TRENDING DRIER THURSDAY, THOUGH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA (MEDIUM CHANCE).
- HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
POSSIBLE (MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE). INCREASING RISK OF EXTREME
HEAT IMPACTS.
UPDATE
A COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE TEENS TO 20S MPH
REPORTED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING.
WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH THIS,
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL RISK (1/5)
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN MONTANA TODAY. WITH THIS,
STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN THREATS, THOUGH ISOLATED
HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WHILE THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS GREATEST BETWEEN 4PM MDT THIS AFTERNOON AND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, A
LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER EASTERN MONTANA. LA
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)...
WEAK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT INTO THE DAKOTAS
LATER TONIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A PUSH OF N-NE WINDS
BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE
A NOTABLE RISE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW
PWATS INCREASING TO OVER AN INCH. THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW WILL
LIKELY PROVIDE SOME CAPPING INITIALLY, BUT AS MORE ENERGY ARRIVES
FROM THE SW THERE IS A MUCH GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. THE TRAJECTORY OF THE SHORTWAVE FAVORS NORTHERN MT FOR
HEAVIEST PRECIP TOMORROW NIGHT THRU TUESDAY, BUT THERE WILL BE
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AS
WELL. ANY STORM WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN.
THERE IS ALSO A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WX IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
MT ON TUESDAY. AS FOR PRECIPITATION TOTALS DURING THIS WET
PERIOD, OUR NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS HAVE OVER A 70S% CHANCE OF
SEEING AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN. THE PROBABILITY FOR AN
INCH OF RAIN IS 20-30% FROM MILES CITY TO BAKER.
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES IN THE W/SW FLOW WILL BRING A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY, BUT THE AIR MASS
WILL GRADUALLY BE TURNING DRIER DURING THIS TIME. LOOK FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY (LOW RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS?), THEN ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAINLY IN THE EAST
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE THRU THURSDAY.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR A VERY POWERFUL RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO NEXT WEEKEND, RESULTING IN HOT
TEMPS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 700MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR A
WHOPPING +20C. THUS, FRIDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPS RETURN TO THE 90S,
AND THEN PUSH OVER THE CENTURY MARK BY SATURDAY WITH TEMPS 100-105
EXPECTED. THERE IS A 50-80% CHANCE OF TEMPS OVER 100F FOR MANY
AREAS SATURDAY AND ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER PROBABILITIES ON SUNDAY.
LOOKING WELL AHEAD INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, MONSOON MOISTURE MAY
CREEP UP UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE INTO OUR REGION RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, BUT UNTIL THEN WE EXPECT MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND DUE LIMITED MOISTURE AND A STRONG MID
LEVEL CAP.
MAIN MESSAGE...PREPARE FOR EXTREME HEAT THIS COMING
WEEKEND. BT
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AROUND 20Z, SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS ARE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS
UP TO 50 KTS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THAT MAY REDUCE
CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR. ARCHER
THUNDERSTORM TIMING
KLVM21Z-03Z
KBIL00Z-06Z
KSHR00Z-06Z
KMLS 06Z-12Z
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 082 062/086 061/091 062/088 062/095 064/102 069/100
1/B 53/B 12/T 51/U 10/U 00/G 00/U
LVM 079 053/084 054/089 054/086 054/091 058/097 060/096
3/T 43/T 22/T 51/U 00/U 10/U 00/U
HDN 086 062/088 059/091 060/089 060/094 063/103 067/101
0/B 74/T 22/T 41/U 10/U 00/G 00/G
MLS 086 062/082 059/086 061/087 060/094 066/102 068/100
0/B 87/T 50/U 42/W 10/U 00/G 00/U
4BQ 088 064/086 060/088 061/087 060/092 066/100 069/099
0/B 64/T 52/T 43/T 21/U 10/U 00/U
BHK 085 058/078 055/082 056/085 056/090 061/097 065/096
0/B 77/T 71/B 14/T 31/U 10/U 00/U
SHR 086 059/087 056/087 056/086 056/093 061/100 064/101
2/B 46/T 53/T 42/T 10/U 00/U 00/G
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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