162
FXUS65 KBYZ 251929
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
129 PM MDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TODAY; A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
- STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING FREQUENT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY), COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BRISK WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
- WARMING AND DRYING TREND NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
500 MB LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC TODAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND THEN MOVE
SLOWLY NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
THE LOW WILL FACILITATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR AREA TODAY INTO SUNDAY.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING, RADAR SHOWS A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WITH
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EASTWARD FROM SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND
NORTH CENTRAL WY. SOUTHEAST MT HAS HAD SOME CLEARING TODAY, WITH
SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING THAT SOME POCKETS OF 500-1000
J/KG MLCAPE CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS THERE. GIVEN
THIS ENVIRONMENT, AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE,
WITH SUCH A STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH. IN ADDITION, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
APPROACHING 1 INCH TODAY SUGGEST THAT POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS.
BEHIND THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS, THE CLOUDS SHOULD
PARTIALLY CLEAR OUT, WHICH CAN RECHARGE THE INSTABILITY A BIT AND
FACILITATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MT. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT
THIS SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE HIGH-BASED WITH THE MAIN
THREAT BEING WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 40-50 MPH.
ON FRIDAY, A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
DAKOTAS, PLACING OUR FORECAST AREA UNDER CYCLONIC SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AT 500 MB. SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S, WHICH HELPS SUPPORT POCKETS OF MUCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG AS SHOWN ON 12Z HREF. SURFACE-500 MB SHEAR OF 40-50 KT
WILL SUPPORT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND
1 INCH SUGGESTS HEAVY RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE.
ON SATURDAY, POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH CAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. LOW-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR WEAK BUT 500 MB WINDS WILL BE 30-45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LIGHTER VALUES TO THE WEST. SO,
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST THIS THREAT WILL BE.
MAIN THREATS AGAIN WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS, ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN RATES.
ON SUNDAY, LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE WESTERLY, WHICH WILL HELP
BRING IN RELATIVELY DRIER AIR AND LIMIT INSTABILITY. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND TO HELP PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVERALL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY SHOULD BE LIGHT.
NBM SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF 1 INCH OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND
IS GREATEST AT ABOUT 30-50% FROM PARK-WHEATLAND-GOLDEN VALLEY-
MUSSELSHELL COUNTIES WITH LOWER PROBABILITY VALUES TO THE
SOUTHEAST. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT TO
ABOUT 8500-9000 FEET, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1
INCH OR SO POSSIBLE ABOVE THAT LEVEL.
FOR MONDAY TO THURSDAY, THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD DRIER AND WARMER
CONDITIONS AS THE 500 MB LOW WILL BE NORTH OF OUR AREA AND 500 MB
HEIGHTS BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL US. NBM 10TH-90TH PERCENTILE FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURE AT BILLINGS RANGES FROM 65-78F ON MONDAY TO
81-95F ON THURSDAY. RMS
AVIATION
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG, WITH HEAVY
RAIN, HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
MOST LIKELY THUNDERSTORM TIMING:
KLVM 18Z-00Z
KBIL 19Z-01Z
KSHR 20Z-02Z
KMLS 22Z-03Z
STP/PM
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/086 059/077 052/072 050/073 051/081 054/084 056/090
23/T 79/T 82/T 42/T 01/U 11/U 10/U
LVM 050/079 049/070 042/062 039/065 042/074 044/078 046/084
36/T 69/T 86/T 64/T 22/T 22/T 11/U
HDN 052/087 057/078 051/074 048/075 049/081 051/085 053/091
22/B 68/T 83/T 42/T 11/U 11/U 10/U
MLS 053/084 060/079 054/075 051/074 051/080 054/084 056/090
80/B 64/T 83/W 53/T 11/U 11/U 11/U
4BQ 054/086 061/081 055/077 052/075 051/081 055/086 058/091
80/B 35/T 62/T 64/T 10/U 11/U 11/U
BHK 050/082 059/082 053/077 051/074 049/079 052/085 055/089
70/B 53/T 71/U 64/T 11/U 11/U 21/U
SHR 048/085 053/076 048/072 045/073 044/080 048/084 050/089
41/B 47/T 75/T 62/T 11/U 02/T 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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