887
FXUS65 KBYZ 010945
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
345 AM MDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY TODAY. OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S TODAY
INTO NEXT WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS (50S/60S) ON TUESDAY.
UPDATE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DRY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN ID THRU SOUTHERN AB. WHILE WE REMAIN UNDER A
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT, HEIGHTS ARE RISING AND THE FLOW IS NOW
ANTICYCLONIC...THUS WE ARE LOOKING AT MODEST DOWNSLOPE GRADIENTS
AND AN OVERALL WARMER NIGHT THAN THE PAST SEVERAL. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
MOST PLACES. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP (ALBEIT ONLY 20%) COMES WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF A WAVE DROPPING OUT OF CANADA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR TEMP, RH AND WIND TWEAKS FOR TODAY. FORECAST
IS IN GOOD SHAPE. JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
TODAY WILL BE DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH THIS, A SUBTLE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS TO SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA DURING THE MORNING AND SOUTH-
EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON
(GUSTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S MPH).
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, UNSTABLE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
LOOKS TO RETURN. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO MULTIPLE WAVES OF
ENERGY AND MOISTURE, AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. RIGHT
NOW, THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO COME SUNDAY (10 TO
50 PERCENT CHANCE) AND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (20 TO 60 PERCENT
CHANCE). THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY (5 TO 20
PERCENT), BUT THE BACKDOOR FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE
AREA THAT DAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRIER. WITH THIS ACTIVITY, THERE ARE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN THERE IS
A 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE, BUT LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ON THE WEAKER SIDE. NO WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME EITHER, WITH THE
ACTIVITY BEING MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE.
WHILE NO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WHEN
GUSTS IN THE 20S AND 30S MPH ARE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY LOOK TO REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S MOST DAYS OUTSIDE OF
TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS COULD BE COOLER IN THE 50S AND 60S.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE AREA FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD
BRING WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BACK TO THE AREA. ARENDS
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD VFR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS, UNDER OCCASIONAL HIGH CLOUDS. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 045/075 046/072 045/066 041/060 039/070 047/079
0/U 01/U 22/W 12/W 23/W 10/U 11/U
LVM 069 038/072 041/069 041/065 037/062 038/070 044/078
0/U 01/B 13/W 12/W 22/W 00/N 01/N
HDN 071 037/076 044/072 043/067 039/060 035/068 042/079
0/U 00/U 23/W 13/W 23/W 10/U 11/U
MLS 069 040/074 043/071 044/063 037/057 033/063 039/076
0/U 00/U 11/B 12/W 12/W 10/U 11/B
4BQ 067 039/074 043/069 043/064 037/054 033/062 039/074
0/U 00/U 12/W 11/B 22/W 10/U 01/U
BHK 066 037/073 038/068 040/057 031/052 028/058 034/070
0/U 00/B 01/B 11/N 12/W 10/U 00/U
SHR 068 034/074 038/067 040/062 034/056 031/063 038/074
0/U 01/U 14/T 23/W 34/W 11/N 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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