512
FXUS65 KBYZ 291855
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1255 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- WEST WINDS GUSTING 25-40 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY(70S) WARMING INTO THE
80S-LOWER 90S BY MID-WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
UNSETTLED PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A FALL LIKE UPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND SLIDES JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS CLOSE APPROACH WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY. BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN TRENDING LOWER AS THE
TRACK OF THE LOW TO THE NORTH PUTS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
DOWNSLOPE FLOW PATTERN THAT WILL WORK AGAINST SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.
FOR TONIGHT AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
(GARDINER/LIVINGSTON/HARLOWTON) WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN STATE LINE. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM (WIND GUSTS AROUND 50
MPH) WILL BE IN THE EASTERN LOCALS THROUGH MID-EVENING.
THERE COULD BE A DUSTING OF SNOW IN THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ABOVE 10500 FEET, FOR THOSE
PLANNING HIGH ELEVATION RECREATION ACTIVITIES.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY WITH
A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA (BILLINGS AND WEST) WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING, WITH AREAS TO THE EAST FAVORED
FOR THE AFTERNOON. MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF
THE AREA SUNDAY AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DOWNSLOPING ALONG OUR MOUNTAINS CONTINUES TO TREND PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS DOWNWARD. MOST AREAS ARE LOOKING AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS SUNDAY, THOUGH A FEW AREAS OF MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD
SEE UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH. WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST WITH GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE
BECOMING COMMON FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE
RECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA, DO NOT ANTICIPATE FIRE CONCERNS
BECOMING ELEVATED TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
UPPER SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST ON MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
AS WESTERLY WINDS DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE. TEMPERATURES MAKE IT
BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY OF SUN
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS MAY BE A BIT BREEZY TO START THE AFTERNOON
OVER SE MONTANA, BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATER IN THE DAY.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY REACHING THE LOWER 90S
IN SOME LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING MID-WEEK, BUT
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PRODUCE MORE WIND THAN RAIN IN GENERAL WITH
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS BECOMING AN INCREASING THREAT ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS.
ANOTHER FALL LIKE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ALONG THE PACNW
COAST THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM DEEPENS BUT DOESN'T SHIFT EASTWARD
VERY QUICKLY. THIS WILL PUT OUR AREA IN A PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING INTO THE AREA AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ADVECTING IN MOISTURE FOR THE AREA.
THIS IS A FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN FOR OUR REGION. HOW
ACTIVE THINGS WILL GET TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WILL DEPEND ON
HOW MUCH MOISTURE GETS DRAWN INTO THE REGION AND HOW CLOSE THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST IF
YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. CHAMBERS
AVIATION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, AND SMALL HAIL.
EXPECT MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY TO OCCUR BETWEEN 19Z AND 03Z,
WITH LINGERING ACTIVITY THROUGH 06Z. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS MAY
CAUSE MOUNTAINS TO BECOME OBSCURED AT TIMES. MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/076 050/082 055/086 058/087 058/087 056/085 057/081
27/T 00/U 00/U 11/B 10/B 11/U 11/B
LVM 047/073 041/081 045/084 047/081 045/080 044/080 046/078
88/T 00/N 01/U 42/T 00/B 11/U 22/T
HDN 054/078 046/084 052/088 053/090 051/089 052/088 053/083
16/T 00/U 00/B 11/U 10/U 10/U 11/U
MLS 059/078 050/082 054/086 057/089 057/088 057/088 059/083
16/T 00/U 01/B 11/U 20/U 10/U 11/U
4BQ 060/082 051/084 057/086 057/090 057/089 059/089 060/084
26/T 10/U 01/B 11/U 10/U 10/U 11/U
BHK 055/083 046/083 049/084 052/089 054/089 054/089 055/085
26/T 20/U 02/W 21/U 21/U 10/U 11/U
SHR 052/079 045/083 051/084 051/087 049/088 050/087 051/083
25/T 00/U 01/B 00/U 00/U 11/U 12/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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