308
FXUS65 KBYZ 120718
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1218 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- GUSTY WINDS RETURN TO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS BY THE WEEKEND;
30-50% CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH AT LIVINGSTON.
- BECOMING COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
CURRENTLY, A RATHER BENIGN PATTERN OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH A
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. VERY DRY AIR MOVING
IN WITH THIS FEATURE SO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. MODELS AGREE
THAT A FLAT RIDGING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER OUR REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL MEAN WARM TEMPS (MID 40S TO MID 50S) AND
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THERE IS A WEAK PERTURBATION IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW THAT MAY BRING IN SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE AT THE MID
LEVELS ACROSS MONTANA. MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF SNOW AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, BUT
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY AN INCH OR LESS.
LOOK FOR GAP WINDS (LIVINGSTON/NYE) TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE PARADISE VALLEY AND
BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS SHOULD WILL DRIVE A 30-50% CHANCE FOR A WIND
GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. THE US-191 CORRIDOR, WHICH RELIES MORE HEAVILY
ON STRONG 700 MB WINDS, SHOULD NOT SEE ANY SUBSTANTIAL WINDS IN
THIS PATTERN.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK MODEL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST A MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING TO OUR WEST PUSHING WEAK
WAVES AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW.
HOWEVER, CLUSTER ANALYSIS INDICATES A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE POTENTIAL PATTERN VARYING FROM A WEAKER SPLIT FLOW TROUGH
TO A MUCH STRONGER NEGATIVELY TILTED SOLUTION MOVING THROUGH THE
ROCKIES. FOR NOW, WE FEEL SAFE IN PROJECTING AN UNSETTLED PATTERN
WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS STARTING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT, AND A COOLING TREND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S (LOWS IN TEENS) BY MIDWEEK. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW MODELS EVENTUALLY TREND. BT
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 054 029/054 030/054 033/055 030/055 031/048 030/047
0/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 21/B 24/W 32/J
LVM 050 028/049 030/050 034/051 032/051 031/047 027/042
0/U 00/B 00/N 22/W 22/W 35/W 43/J
HDN 055 025/056 025/056 029/056 028/058 030/048 028/047
0/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 21/B 25/W 43/J
MLS 048 024/050 025/051 029/050 028/052 028/043 025/039
0/U 00/U 00/B 01/E 11/B 14/W 42/J
4BQ 053 027/054 027/054 029/054 029/057 032/049 028/044
0/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/U 13/W 32/J
BHK 047 023/050 024/050 027/048 026/049 026/042 021/036
0/U 00/U 00/B 01/E 11/B 14/W 53/J
SHR 053 024/053 023/053 026/055 026/056 027/048 023/045
0/U 00/U 00/B 00/E 11/U 25/W 43/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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