817
FXUS65 KBYZ 232317
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
517 PM MDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING BRINGS
LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND MOUNTAIN/HIGHER FOOTHILLS SNOW;
GREATEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS EXPECTED WEST OF BILLINGS, WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION OVER SE MONTANA.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM
SHERIDAN COUNTY EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF SE MONTANA.
- WINDY CONDITIONS (GUSTS 25-45 MPH) EXPECTED TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 50S) THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
- UNSETTLED CONDITIONS (20-50% PRECIPITATION CHANCES) LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE TEENS FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING WITH
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30S MPH. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INCREASE RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES QUICKLY, ENDING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. RED FLAG WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL BRING WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30S AND 40S MPH OVERNIGHT
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED FOR WHEATLAND COUNTY AND AREAS
NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER.
THIS EVENING WILL SEE MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SNOW AMOUNTS
OF 2 INCHES OR LESS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS FOR JUDITH GAP. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT LEADING
TO IMPROVED CONDITIONS BY MORNING. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE JUDITH GAP AREA THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY. THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL RECEIVE RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
RAIN/SNOW MIX TONIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END BY AROUND 3 AM SATURDAY
MORNING. THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED NORTH AND
WEST OF BILLINGS WHERE THERE IS A 30-70% CHANCE OF GETTING
GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION. LOCATIONS EAST OF
ROSEBUD COUNTY ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DIFFERENT SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S F AND LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS LOCATIONS ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER WHERE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST INTO THE 20S MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY WILL SEE A 500 MB TROUGH IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS CURRENTLY INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRIMARILY IMPACT THE DAKOTAS BUT WILL BRING LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES (20-40%) TO SOUTHEAST MONTANA. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN 0.1
INCHES IN THE 10-30% RANGE. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST COAST BRINGING
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES (40-60%). THE CHANCE FOR GREATER
THAN 0.25 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY RANGES FROM
20% NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER TO 50% FOR FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK IN THE 40S AND
50S F. TORGERSON
AVIATION
00Z DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WIL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARDS
THROUGH THE EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
ANTICIPATED FOR SITES SUCH AS KBIL/KLVM/K3HT THROUGH ROUGHLY 08Z.
EXPECT FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO CHANGE FREQUENTLY AND QUICKLY DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND INTENSITY MAY CHANGE
SEVERAL TIMES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NW WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AFTER 12Z
EXPECT THESE WINDS TO QUICKLY DIE DOWN TO UNDER 15KTS REGION WIDE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR ALL SITES AFTER 12Z. MOUNTAINS
WILL REMAIN FULLY OBSCURED THROUGH 12Z AS WELL. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 031/050 029/049 030/052 033/055 034/049 027/047 027/049
90/U 00/U 00/U 13/W 43/W 11/B 11/B
LVM 022/045 022/046 022/052 027/053 025/047 022/048 022/051
+0/U 00/U 00/B 25/W 63/W 22/J 21/B
HDN 027/052 024/054 028/057 030/057 030/051 023/049 023/051
80/U 00/U 00/B 03/W 54/W 11/B 11/B
MLS 032/048 028/053 032/050 032/054 033/048 025/047 026/049
30/U 00/U 20/B 02/W 43/W 11/B 11/B
4BQ 034/048 031/050 032/049 032/057 034/049 027/049 028/051
10/U 01/B 30/B 02/W 42/W 10/B 11/B
BHK 029/048 022/050 025/045 024/051 028/048 021/047 022/049
10/N 00/U 31/N 11/B 44/W 11/B 11/B
SHR 026/050 024/052 026/056 029/058 028/052 023/051 023/053
50/U 01/B 10/U 02/W 43/W 11/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR
ZONE 63.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 131-133.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONE 274.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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