787
FXUS65 KBYZ 131117
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
517 AM MDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION (LIGHT RAIN/SNOW AND DRIZZLE) OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO WYOMING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW FREEZING CONTINUE THIS WEEK,
COLDEST WHERE SNOW REMAINS ON THE GROUND.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN FAR SOUTHEAST MONTANA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
- CONDITIONS TREND WARMER AND DRIER FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN US AND AN ASSOCIATED LOW CENTERED
OVER NORTHERN NEVADA WAS KEEPING DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE REGION.
A WEAK WAVE MOVING NORTH INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WILL BRING
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS (20-50% CHANCE) AND SOME DRIZZLE/FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS, LINGERING OVER SOUTHEAST MT INTO
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE CHANCE REMAINS LOW (LESS THAN 20%),
POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND THE BIGHORN
AND PRYOR MOUNTAINS INTO THE MORNING HOURS, BUT WARMER GROUNDS
SHOULD LIMIT THIS THREAT. THIS COULD (LOW CHANCE) IMPACT TRAVEL
ALONG HIGHWAY 14 THROUGH THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. ANY RAIN OR SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. WITH THE RECENT MOISTURE, PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE MORNING HOURS, WITH LOCALLY DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE IN SPOTS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY
WITH CLOUDS CLEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. FOG IS
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA YET AGAIN TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ARE
FORECAST.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW TRACKS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, AN
ASSOCIATED WAVE LIFTING NORTH AND EAST THROUGH WYOMING LOOKS TO
BRING SHOWERS TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BEHIND THE WAVE, A DRY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
NEAR HUDSON BAY LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY,
BRINGING BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS INTO THE 20S MPH FOR MOST AREAS,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS INTO THE 30S MPH OVER THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING GENERALLY WARMER
CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS
INCREASING INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. PRESSURE GRADIENTS LOOK TO
TIGHTEN ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED WINDS FROM
LIVINGSTON TO NYE. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE AREA BY SUNDAY
BRINGING AN END TO THE GAP WINDS. WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR
MONDAY. STP
AVIATION
12Z TAF/AVIATION DISCUSSION...
KBIL: CONTINUED WITH TEMPO FOR 1/2SM AND 300FT CEILING AT KBIL
THROUGH 14Z. STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT AND SHIFTED JUST SOUTH OF
BILLINGS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME QUICK COOLING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS, ALONG WITH THE SUNRISE EFFECT. A REPORT OF 1SM
VISIBILITY IN FOG CAME IN LAST HOUR NEAR PARK CITY JUST SW OF
BILLINGS, AND THE OBSERVATION LAST HOUR HAD A 500FT DECK INCLUDED.
ANY FOG THREAT SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 15-16Z, BUT THE TEMPO
ENCOMPASSES THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR IMPACTFUL FOG.
KMLS/KLVM/KSHR: NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING TAFS. COLD DRAINAGE
FROM THE W/NW HAS CLEARED OUT STRATUS AND SHOULD NEGATE THE FOG
THREAT THERE.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, STRATUS AND ANY FOG WILL LIFT MID TO
LATE MORNING, WITH STRATUS PERSISTING (THOUGH LIFTING IN HEIGHT)
MAINLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUES TO THROW MOISTURE NORTHWARD, JUST
GETTING INTO SOUTHERN ZONES ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER. WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THIS AREA THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON, WITH CLEARING THEREAFTER. ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG
POTENTIAL ARRIVES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053 030/059 039/060 036/069 046/074 045/069 044/073
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/B 00/U
LVM 049 022/054 028/061 029/072 036/074 037/071 037/074
0/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 00/U 00/U
HDN 054 028/060 034/062 032/071 035/076 038/071 037/075
2/W 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
MLS 053 029/058 036/058 030/068 038/074 042/069 041/073
0/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
4BQ 052 032/059 041/060 031/070 042/076 045/071 044/075
3/W 00/B 10/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BHK 053 027/059 033/059 025/067 038/077 041/071 038/075
1/B 00/B 00/N 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
SHR 052 028/058 034/060 028/070 034/076 037/071 036/075
3/W 10/B 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 00/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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