128
FXUS65 KBYZ 250015
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
615 PM MDT WED JUN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY; A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY EAST OF BILLINGS.
- STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING FREQUENT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS (SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY & SATURDAY), COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
BRISK WINDS. HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- EXACT TRACK OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM REMAINS UNCERTAIN, AND WILL
AFFECT PRECIP AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE. SUNDAY & MONDAY MAY TURN OUT
MOSTLY DRY, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS.
UPDATE
AS OF 6PM, THERE IS AN AREA OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS NEAR WEST
YELLOWSTONE THAT IS EKING INTO THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKAS. THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR TOMORROW'S CONVECTION IS
WELL TO OUR WEST OVER THE PACNW, BUT WE ARE SEEING INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SOME WEAK ACTIVITY OVER
OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
CONTINUE IN SOME CAPACITY OVERNIGHT AS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING
GRADUALLY INCREASES FROM THE WEST. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW T-STORMS TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING.
THIS WILL HAVE OBVIOUS IMPACTS ON SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE
AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME, HAVE MADE SOME POP/WX ADJUSTMENTS PER
CURRENT TRENDS. JKL
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
THURSDAY WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE PWATS (1-1.25 IN). THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL START
PRECIPITATION THURSDAY MORNING IN THE WEST BEFORE MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND STRENGTHENING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT WITH PLENTIFUL SHEAR (35-50 KTS)
AND MOISTURE BUT SOMEWHAT LACKING IN INSTABILITY WITH GENERALLY
<1,000 J/KG OF CAPE. THREATS WITH THESE STORMS INCLUDE >1 INCH
HAIL, >60 MPH WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN. DUE TO THIS THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A RISK LEVEL 1 OF 5 FOR SEVERE STORMS
SOUTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS FOR THURSDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE FRIDAY WITH A SIMILAR
ATMOSPHERIC SETUP, HIGH PWAT VALUES, STRONG SHEAR, AND WEAK
INSTABILITY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A RISK LEVEL 1
OF 5 FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF BILLINGS. THE THREATS
WITH THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THURSDAY.
SOUTHEAST MONTANA WILL STAY IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY AS
A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY WITH ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILES FEATURING STRONG LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNLOCKING
MORE CAPE TO GO ALONG WITH MORE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR PROFILES.
THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SATURDAYS STORMS BEING MORE WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE AND POTENTIALLY HAVING A GREATER HAIL AND WIND THREAT.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE (30-60%) SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S F FOR
MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. FRIDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MANY
AREAS IN THE LOW 80S F. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S F FOR THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
TORGERSON
AVIATION
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER THIS
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THURSDAY MORNING BRINGING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN,
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 053/072 054/082 056/074 053/071 050/073 052/079 054/083
18/T 23/T 68/T 84/T 43/W 11/B 11/U
LVM 046/073 049/077 046/066 042/062 041/065 044/073 045/077
29/T 45/T 8+/T 96/T 55/T 32/T 22/T
HDN 051/074 051/084 055/075 051/074 048/075 050/081 052/084
18/T 23/T 78/T 84/T 43/W 21/U 11/U
MLS 050/075 053/081 057/076 054/074 052/073 052/080 056/084
05/T 72/T 86/T 74/W 44/W 10/U 11/U
4BQ 050/072 053/083 058/077 055/078 053/075 053/081 056/085
08/T 62/T 67/T 74/T 53/W 11/U 11/U
BHK 045/074 050/080 056/077 053/077 051/074 050/079 053/084
02/B 81/B 76/T 73/W 53/T 21/U 12/W
SHR 047/072 048/082 052/073 047/075 045/074 046/080 049/082
39/T 23/T 79/T 85/T 53/T 11/U 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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