377
FXUS65 KBYZ 091210
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
610 AM MDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THE CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW.
- COOLER CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS AT
TIMES. SOME IMPACTS TO RECREATION AND TRAVEL IN THE HIGH COUNTY
ARE POSSIBLE (MAINLY ABOVE 8,000 FEET). THIS INCLUDES TRAVEL
ALONG THE BEARTOOTH HIGHWAY THROUGH THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHWAY 14 THROUGH THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
- WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY, STRONGEST WEDNESDAY
OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS.
UPDATE
PACIFIC TROF IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND WE ARE NOW SEEING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS, AND SKIES HAVE THICKENED ACROSS THE AREA THRU
THE NIGHT. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG 700MB COLD ADVECTION IN THE
WEST, AND JUST RECENTLY WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY AT LIVINGSTON.
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING A SHIFT TO BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE CWA TODAY, WITH A WIND SHIFT ALL THE WAY TO THE DAKOTAS
BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON (THUS THE SVR RISK IS TO OUR EAST
TODAY). 700MB 0C ISOTHERM IS CLOSE TO BUTTE AND IT APPEARS THAT
OUR WESTERN HIGH ELEVATIONS MAY SEE RAIN SHOWERS SWITCH TO SNOW
SOONER THAN LATER. SNOW LEVELS STILL EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR 8KFT
TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE MORNING WILL INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON W/ SOME DIURNAL HEATING AND THE ARRIVING TROF. AS TEMPS
ALOFT STEADILY COOL, EVEN WITH SBCAPES OF ONLY 100-300 J/KG, WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SMALL HAIL WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR
WEAK THUNDERSTORM. THE FORECAST HAS ALL OF THIS COVERED WELL. HAVE
MADE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS/WINDS PER CURRENT TRENDS, AND HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A BIT PER THE COLD ADVECTION ARRIVING EARLY,
TO BE CONSISTENT W/ EXPECTED MIX DOWNS. JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING/ EARLY
AFTERNOON, BRINGING INCREASING WEST WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20S AND
30S MPH ACROSS THE AREA. A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE
HIGHER FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS AND THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS IN
THE 40S TO 50 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL INCREASE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. DUE
TO THE FRONTAL TIMING BEING EARLIER IN THE DAY, THE CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE QUITE MARGINAL WITH MODELS DEPICTING ONLY
100-500 J/KG OF SBCAPE ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. OUT
IN THE EAST ALONG THE DAKOTAS BORDER, OVER UP TO 2000 J/KG IS
DEPICTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH IS THE BIG CAVEAT. THE BEST
INSTABILITY EXISTS WELL BEFORE PEAK DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST
FORCING MECHANISM FOR TOMORROW ARRIVES TOO SOON FOR THE THREAT OF
STRONGER STORMS. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL BE BRIEF DOWNPOURS AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. LOOK FOR THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE UPPER LOW DRIVING THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SITTING OVER
SOUTHERN ALBERTA THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WIDESPREAD WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING IN THE 20S TO 40 MPH. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS
IN THE FOOTHILLS WEST OF BILLINGS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TOWARDS
THE LOW 50S MPH. THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE HIGHER GUSTS EXISTS
ALONG THE US-191 CORRIDOR NEAR HARLOWTON (AROUND 75 PERCENT) AND
BIG TIMBER (AROUND 50 PERCENT). ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST ALONG THE MONTANA AND WYOMING BORDER.
THE GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWEST OVER THE
PLAIN OF SOUTH-EASTERN MONTANA. AS THE LOW MOVES EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING, A MODERATE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST 850MB WINDS WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
LOOK FOR CONDITIONS TO BECOME DRIER BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO DROP INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY, BRINGING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA (LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE).
WITH THE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES (GENERALLY ABOVE 8000 FEET). WITH THIS,
SOME IMPACTS TO RECREATION AND TRAVEL IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ARE
POSSIBLE. THIS INCLUDES TRAVEL OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE
BEARTOOTH HIGHWAY IN THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS AND HIGHWAY 14
THROUGH THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S MOST DAYS INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOW
70S ON WEDNESDAY. LA/PM
AVIATION
ISSUED 12Z. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES THIS MORNING, BRINGING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS. GUSTS
OF 20-35KTS (HIGHEST WEST) WILL BE COMMON FROM LATE MORNING INTO
THE EVENING. SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
LOCAL/BRIEF MVFR (MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING). MOUNTAINS WILL
BECOME FREQUENTLY OBSCURED, ESPECIALLY BY EVENING AS SNOW LEVELS
FALL TO 8-9KFT AGL OVER THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKA AND CRAZY
MOUNTAINS. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 049/067 048/073 047/079 050/072 048/072 049/076
4/T 52/T 51/N 00/U 24/T 21/B 12/T
LVM 066 039/058 038/069 040/077 042/070 040/070 041/074
9/T 82/T 31/N 00/U 24/T 22/T 12/T
HDN 079 047/069 046/072 044/078 047/071 045/071 045/075
3/T 60/N 72/W 00/U 23/T 22/W 12/T
MLS 082 050/069 047/070 047/075 048/070 046/070 047/074
2/T 40/N 75/W 00/U 22/W 22/W 12/T
4BQ 083 049/068 046/068 046/076 048/070 046/068 046/071
3/T 61/B 45/W 00/U 23/T 32/W 13/T
BHK 084 048/069 043/066 044/072 045/067 043/067 044/070
2/T 31/N 58/T 00/U 12/W 23/W 13/T
SHR 079 043/064 041/068 040/076 044/069 041/067 041/071
4/T 67/T 42/W 00/U 16/T 43/T 24/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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