006
FXUS65 KBYZ 310710
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
110 AM MDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAL SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
- SNOW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BEARTOOTH
HIGHWAY TODAY, MAINLY ABOVE VISTA POINT. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
- GRADUAL WARMING NEXT WEEK, BUT WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS
OUR AREA, MAINLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTH, IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDED
FROM THE PAC NW THROUGH NORTHERN WY AT THIS TIME.
AS THE TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH RIGHT ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY WE
EXPECT TO SEE AREAS OF SHOWERS FILL IN DUE TO SYNOPTIC ASCENT.
INSTABILITY SUGGEST SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL, MAINLY
ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY WHERE A VORTICITY MAX
WILL TRACK ROUND THE TROUGH. POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE, BUT TO A LESSER EXTENT THAN SATURDAY THANKS
TO DEEPENING DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND LIMITED LAPSE RATES COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BRISK DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CWA
(20-35 MPH GUSTS) WILL LIMIT RAINFALL RATES AND COVERAGE BY
AFTERNOON.
HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS SNOW LEVELS FALL TO
NEAR 9KFT TODAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER THE BEARTOOTH HIGHWAY, MAINLY ABOVE VISTA
POINT, THROUGH THIS EVENING. LOOK SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-4" ON W-NW
ASPECTS.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL FINALLY ALL LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING
AS SYNOPTIC ASCENT ENDS AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE TROUGH
AXIS DRIFTING NORTH. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THROUGH
TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE AROUND 0.20" WEST TO 0.75" EAST,
BUT NO DOUBT THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS WITH ANY
STRONGER CONVECTION.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S WEST TO UPPER 60S
EAST.
AS THE CURRENT UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS OVER THE MT/CANADIAN BORDER
MONDAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS THROUGH IDAHO AND MERGES IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW. MODELS ARE INDICATING THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED
AFTERNOON & EVENING STORMS MONDAY. DUE TO SOMEWHAT BETTER SHEAR,
SUBSTANTIAL DIURNAL HEATING AND EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS, CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY (THOUGH
MODELS NOT SHOWING THIS YET).
UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY AND GRADUALLY FILLS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
KEEPING US UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW. STILL A LOWER CHANCE OF SHOWERS
& T-STORMS THESE DAYS, WITH BEST CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE EAST, AND
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. NEXT PACIFIC WAVE ARRIVES THURSDAY.
OVERALL, ACTIVE WEATHER PERSISTS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS TEMPS
WARM BACK TO THE 70S. HIGHER HEIGHTS AND A SHIFT BACK TO SW FLOW
ALOFT SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO THE 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK MOSTLY DRY FOR NOW, BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME CONVECTION WORK INTO THE BEARTOOTHS/CRAZIES BY THE WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT PACIFIC COAST TROUGH SETS UP. BT
AVIATION
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER EASTERN MONTANA ARE
EXPECTED TODAY. WITH THIS, MVFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. AS WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON (GUSTS IN THE 20S AND 30S
KNOTS), CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT A BIT, THOUGH MAY REMAIN MVFR IN
SPOTS (ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS WHERE WESTERLY WINDS
WILL HAVE LESS OF A DRYING EFFECT). PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS WELL, COMING TO AN END THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THROUGH THIS TIME, EXPECT
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 062 046/072 047/074 049/075 051/077 052/082 054/091
5/W 23/T 41/B 11/B 15/T 31/U 11/U
LVM 055 039/067 040/071 042/075 044/073 044/080 046/085
7/W 35/T 52/T 12/T 26/T 32/T 11/U
HDN 063 043/073 045/076 046/076 049/078 050/082 052/091
6/W 32/T 41/B 31/U 23/T 42/W 10/U
MLS 065 044/070 048/075 049/075 051/077 053/080 054/089
8/T 40/B 61/B 31/B 23/T 42/W 10/U
4BQ 064 044/073 049/076 050/075 051/077 052/079 054/088
8/T 21/U 64/T 42/W 24/T 42/W 10/U
BHK 069 041/070 046/075 047/075 048/074 049/077 051/085
8/T 60/B 67/T 52/T 24/T 53/W 20/U
SHR 064 040/072 042/075 043/075 045/077 045/080 047/089
7/T 23/T 42/W 13/T 15/T 33/T 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT
FOR ZONE 67.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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