296
FXUS65 KBYZ 100311
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
811 PM MST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING.
- A COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST WEEK, BUT STILL 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
UPDATE
BRUNT OF TODAY'S PRECIP HAS ENDED BUT THERE REMAINS LIGHTER
SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AN AXIS FROM JUDITH GAP AND ROUNDUP
SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY. IT IS IN THIS AREA THERE
REMAINS WEAK MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DECENTLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES. OTHERWISE, A 130KT H3 JET IS EXITING FAR SOUTHEAST MT AND
MOST PRECIP SHOULD END BY 06Z. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN OUR NORTH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE BIGGER ISSUE AT THIS POINT IS WHETHER OR NOT FOG DEVELOPS
TONIGHT. NO DOUBT THE VERY MOIST GROUND SUPPORTS AT LEAST A
MENTION OF FOG ALMOST EVERYWHERE, AND DEWPT SPREADS ARE QUITE LOW
AT 03Z, BUT THE ONSET OF DRIER WEST WINDS MAY LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL
OVER OUR WEST. CURRENT OB SHOWS A 23MPH WEST WIND AT THE BIG
TIMBER AIRPORT, FOR EXAMPLE, BUT UP AT HARLOWTON WITH A LIGHT SE
WIND THE VSBY HAS FALLEN TO UNDER A MILE. THERE SEEMS TO BE A
SHORT WINDOW AT BILLINGS (NOW THRU 09Z) BUT THE LOW AND MID CLOUD
COVER MAY BE AN INHIBITOR. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. FINALLY, EXPECT SOME SLICK ROADS AS TEMPS FALL BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL OF 9" WAS REPORTED NEAR TWODOT AND MELVILLE TODAY.
JKL
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH
THIS EVENING AND MAY BRING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW TO
LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF BILLINGS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WILL SEE A SPLIT FLOW
PATTERN, KEEPING CONDITIONS RELATIVELY QUIET AND HIGHS IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN LAST WEEK,
THEY ARE STILL 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE EXCEPTION TO THE QUIET WEATHER IS WEDNESDAY, WHEN AN UPPER
LOW MAY PASS CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS (20-50% CHANCE). OVER THE MOUNTAINS, PRECIP WILL FALL
AS ALL SNOW WHILE THE FOOTHILLS WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT, WITH A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE OF MORE THAN 1 INCH OF SNOW.
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, A PACIFIC TROUGH GRADUALLY
APPROACHES, LEADING TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WITH AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (20-40% OVER THE PLAINS,
30-60% OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS) BY SUNDAY. WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGE, WESTERN FOOTHILLS WILL SEE WINDS INCREASE AND
BECOME GUSTY TO LOCALLY STRONG AT TIMES. ARCHER
AVIATION
03Z DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
08Z. BEHIND THESE SHOWERS SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF ANY SITE SEEING FG IS 50% FOR KMLS/KBHK. KBIL/SHR HAVE
A 30% CHANCE OF SEEING FOG. ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM WILL DISSIPATE
BY 14Z. EVEN IF A SITE DOES NOT SEE ANY FOG, IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE SAME TIME PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MOUNTAINS WILL BE
OBSCURED THROUGH 15Z THEN TRANSITION TO PARTIALLY OBSCURED. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026/046 025/047 025/052 027/053 028/052 031/050 026/046
20/B 01/E 10/U 00/U 01/B 13/W 22/J
LVM 023/043 025/046 026/048 027/048 027/046 031/045 024/041
20/B 02/W 20/U 00/U 12/J 34/J 43/J
HDN 025/048 022/048 022/052 024/054 026/053 029/053 024/049
30/B 01/B 10/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 33/J
MLS 026/044 023/044 022/047 024/049 023/048 027/047 024/044
20/B 00/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 11/E 12/J
4BQ 025/046 025/049 025/051 027/053 026/052 029/052 026/048
20/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 01/E 12/J
BHK 023/042 021/047 021/045 024/049 023/047 024/047 022/042
10/B 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/B 01/B 22/J
SHR 020/045 020/048 023/050 023/051 023/051 024/049 021/046
20/B 01/E 21/U 00/U 01/B 12/W 33/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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