268
FXUS65 KBYZ 230820
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
120 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS BEGINNING
TONIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEK. POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
CROSSWINDS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY.
- PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW OVER THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY; RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- POTENTIAL FOR A DOSE OF COLDER AIR BY THE END OF THE WEEK,
ALONG WITH POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING SNOWFALL. HIGH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS SO MONITOR THE FORECAST.
UPDATE
HAVE MADE A COUPLE CHANGES TO OUR HIGHLIGHTS. FIRST, HAVE UPGRADED
THE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKAS TO A WARNING.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A 10-20" SNOWFALL ON SW-W ASPECTS, ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS, AND LIKELY AN INCREASE IN AVALANCHE DANGER IN
THE MOUNTAINS AROUND COOKE CITY. TURNING TO WIND, HAVE UPGRADED
THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR NORTHERN SWEET GRASS AND THE MELVILLE
FOOTHILLS TO A WARNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AND GUSTS SHOULD GET TO 50+ MPH BEFORE SUNSET. PEAK WIND
POTENTIAL IS TONIGHT WHEN MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE TO 50-60KTS AND
SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS SHIFT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FINALLY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR PRE-FRONTAL MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY, HAVE ISSUED A
HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE RED LODGE FOOTHILLS, SOUTHERN BIG HORN
COUNTY, BIGHORN CANYON AND THE SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS. HIGH RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A GOOD SIGNAL IN THESE AREAS (CLOSE TO MOUNTAINS)
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MOUNTAIN
TOP WINDS TO 60KTS. EXPECT GUSTS OF 40+ MPH, WITH A 50% CHANCE OF
GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH AT LEAST BRIEFLY. AS ALWAYS, MOUNTAIN WAVE
WINDS WILL BE ERRATIC. WINDS WILL DECREASE DRAMATICALLY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING (BEFORE SUNRISE).
ONE MORE ITEM TO NOTE. PRECIP IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING WITH THE
TUESDAY WAVE. IN FACT, WITH A SHARPER FRONTAL PUSH WE ARE LOOKING
AT A GREATER CHANCE OF SOME WET SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE
MORNING, AND THIS EVEN INCLUDES BILLINGS. ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH
OR TWO IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER HILLS AND CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS (PLACES LIKE ARROW CREEK HILL, ABERDEEN HILL, WOLF
MOUNTAINS, RED LODGE AND EVEN SHERIDAN). SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
JKL
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SUNDAY...
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE STARTING FOR LIVINGSTON AT THIS TIME AS THEY
START TO GAP OUT OF THE PARADISE VALLEY. THE IDA-LWT PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS SLOWLY TIGHTENING AND PRESENTLY SITS AROUND 10MB. AS
THE 700MB WINDS GRADUALLY PICK UP, WIND GUSTS IN THE LOW 60S MPH
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH SUNRISE. TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING THERE IS A LOT MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE WINDS ACROSS THE
CWA AS THERE ARE A LOT OF COMPETING FACTORS.
STARTING WITH THE BIG TIMBER AREA WE ARE WATCHING THE POTENTIAL
FOR BOTH SOME GAP WINDS FROM THE WSW AS WELL AS LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY OFF OF THE LEE SIDE OF THE CRAZIES. THROUGH THE
EVENING TONIGHT AND THEN OVERNIGHT HOURS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ORIENTS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WINDS TO GAP INTO BIG TIMBER.
THE 700MB WINDS ALSO PUSH TOWARDS 70KTS JUST PRIOR TO A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. ONE OF THE MAIN QUESTIONS HERE IS WHETHER OR NOT A
SURFACE INVERSION WILL SET UP TOO STRONG FOR ANY OF THESE WINDS TO
BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE. SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE GONE BACK AND
FORTH ON THIS AND HAVE YET TO COME INTO A CLEAR AGREEMENT. ONE
THING THAT COULD AID THE WINDS THOUGH IS THAT THE 70KT JET STREAK
IS DEPICTED AS GETTING INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MT BEFORE THE FROPA AND
PUTTING THE AREA OF INTEREST IN THE RIGHT-EXIT REGION OF THIS
FEATURE AND THEREFORE, SUBSIDENCE. THIS COULD AID IN DOWNWARD
TRANSFER OF THE WINDS. THIS JET STREAK WILL ALSO HAVE IMPLICATIONS
ON WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE ANY MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY HERE. THE
ORIENTATION OF WESTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH A STABLE LAYER
FORECAST TO SETUP JUST ABOVE THE MOUNTAINTOP IS A PRIME SETUP FOR
THIS ACTIVITY. THE 2 MAIN LIMITING FACTORS ARE TIMING AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED INVERSION. THE TIMING BECOMES AN ISSUE AS THE
GFS/RAP SHOW THE FROPA REACHING THE CRAZIES AROUND 06Z WHICH
WOULD LEAVE A VERY NARROW WINDOW FOR ANY WAVES TO OCCUR. THE ECMWF
HOWEVER, SHOWS THE FRONT REACHING THE AREA AROUND 12Z WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF WINDS.
A QUICK NOTE FOR LIVINGSTON: THE SAME 700MB JET STREAK WILL ALSO
AID THE GAP WINDS OUT OF THE SW THERE. ADDITIONALLY, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN TO OVER 15MB EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AS SOON
AS THIS FROPA DOES OCCUR THOUGH, ALL GAP WINDS WILL BE 'TURNED
OFF' AND THUS THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD OCCUR SEVERAL HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE IF THE AMERICAN MODELS ARE TO BE BELIEVED.
OUR NEXT AREA OF INTEREST IS THE LEE SIDE OF THE BIGHORNS FOR
POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY BEFORE SUNRISE TUESDAY. THE SAME
INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE OVER THE BIGHORNS AS MENTIONED ABOVE FOR
THE OTHER LOCATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT REACH
SHERIDAN CO. WY FOR ANOTHER 2-3HRS AFTER BIG TIMBER. THIS MEANS
THAT THIS WILL NOT BE A LIMITING FACTOR. SHORT AND MID RANGE
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT SOME WAVE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR
HOWEVER, THE QUESTION IS HOW STRONG WILL IT BE. ALL MODELS SHOW AT
LEAST A 40KT 700MB WIND SPEED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY
BUT THE STRONGEST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS DO DEPICT THE 70KT
SPEEDS. IF THESE WINDS ARE WHAT MATERIALIZE, WARNING LEVEL WINDS
(58 MPH +) WOULD APPEAR LIKELY RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
BIGHORNS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS WE GET MORE MODEL RUNS IN.
THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE THAT PUSHES THROUGH WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A GOOD AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE HELPING TO BRING IN
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS DEPICTED IN THE PWAT
VALUES OF 0.5" FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE BIG WINNERS OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE
WSW FACING ASPECTS CATCHING THE REMNANTS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC
RIVER. 1-2' OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE HIGHEST PEAKS OVER A
36-48HR TIMEFRAME STARTING TUESDAY AM. BELOW 6KFT THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS RAIN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE IT
SLOWLY TRANSITIONS TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A MAJORITY OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL FALL AT OR ABOVE 5KFT.
LATER IN THE WEEK THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
AND BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY COLD AIR. THERE IS STILL A TON OF MODEL
DISCREPANCY OUT THIS FAR AND THUS IT IS HARD TO PINPOINT A
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST IF YOU HAVE
PLANS LATER THIS WEEK. WMR
AVIATION
VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. GUSTY SW-W SURFACE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS, WHERE KLVM
WILL SEE GUSTS OF 40-50 KTS. WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING LLWS TO PORTIONS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE BEARTOOTH AND PRYOR/BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, INCLUDING THE KSHR
VICINITY. PERIODS OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL INCREASE
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055 033/045 032/050 032/057 034/055 017/033 015/039
0/E 37/O 75/O 00/N 13/W 53/J 21/B
LVM 052 035/047 035/046 030/050 033/051 023/040 021/044
0/N 47/O 85/S 00/N 12/J 32/J 21/B
HDN 057 032/045 030/052 030/059 031/054 015/036 012/041
0/B 47/O 77/O 10/N 13/W 54/J 22/J
MLS 050 031/041 025/048 030/055 031/046 013/027 012/034
0/B 23/O 55/O 00/N 13/W 33/J 11/B
4BQ 057 033/043 029/048 031/055 032/051 015/031 014/038
0/B 24/O 47/O 00/U 12/W 43/J 11/B
BHK 049 026/039 020/046 025/051 026/041 006/022 006/030
0/U 22/O 46/S 00/N 12/J 33/J 11/B
SHR 057 029/043 024/047 021/054 026/054 015/036 011/039
0/B 27/O 48/O 20/U 12/W 43/J 22/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR ZONE 56.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 5
PM MST WEDNESDAY FOR ZONE 67.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR ZONES 138-169.
HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM
MST TUESDAY FOR ZONES 141-172.
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR ZONE 199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page