134
FXUS65 KBYZ 071940
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
140 PM MDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AT TIMES WITH HAIL,
STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS GREATEST TODAY.
- TRENDING DRIER THURSDAY, THOUGH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER EASTERN MONTANA (MEDIUM CHANCE).
- VERY HOT CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 100S WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO 70S WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAT RELATED IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH- EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-
EASTERN WYOMING WITH WIND, HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. CURRENTLY, THE RISK OF SEVERE IS GREATEST BETWEEN 2PM AND
11PM MDT. THE ONE THING TO WATCH IS MODELED ATMOSPHERIC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A MID- LEVEL CAP MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION
TODAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST HIGH- RESOLUTION RAPID
REFRESH (HRRR) MODEL RUNS. WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE ATMOSPHERE
RECOVERS OVER EASTERN MONTANA AFTER THIS MORNING'S SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SO FAR, A GOOD AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
REMAINS, BUT AS TEMPERATURES WARM, THIS WILL DECREASE.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ONCE
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HOWEVER, THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS
INITIALLY WITH LITTLE FORCING MECHANISM OUTSIDE OF OROGRAPHICS. BY
THE EVENING, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO DEVELOP
ADDITIONS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
THAT MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS, GRADUALLY DECREASING AS THEY MOVE
EAST INTO THE NIGHT. WHILE GOOD INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA
AND NORTHERN WYOMING, LIMITED SHEAR MAY INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
ORGANIZATION CAUSING THEM TO BE MORE SHORT-LIVED. A BIT DRIER AIR
NEAR THE SURFACE MAY ALSO FAVOR STRONG WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT,
THOUGH HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DEVELOPS.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY DRY DAY AS THE AIR MASS DRIES OUT
EVEN MORE. WITH THAT SAID, A FEW DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN MONTANA (MEDIUM CHANCE).
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE VERY HOT
CONDITIONS THAT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.
CURRENTLY, HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S
BEFORE HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO MID 100S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT "COOLER" WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO LOWER 100S. IN ADDITION TO THESE HOT
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE 60S TO 70S THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE
WITHOUT ACCESS TO AIR CONDITIONING. THE ONE THING TO WATCH IS WHAT
HAPPENS WITH WILDFIRE SMOKE. SHOULD SMOKE ALOFT BE TRANSPORTED
INTO THE REGION, THIS MAY KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT.
HOWEVER, HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EITHER WAY, SO PLAN NOW TO
PROTECT YOURSELF FROM THE HEAT.
WITH THE HEAT, A FEW ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE
CHALLENGED THIS WEEKEND. BELOW ARE THE CURRENT ALL- TIME RECORD
HIGH TEMPERATURES AT EACH OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS:
BILLINGS 108F
LIVINGSTON 105F
MILES CITY 111F
SHERIDAN 107F
BAKER 109F
NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN HOT, BUT THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK, RE-INTRODUCING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. LA
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TO COMMENCE AROUND 20Z OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND EXIT
THE AREA BY 05Z. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST WITH
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTS TO 60KTS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NEAR PRECIPITATION AREAS.
PROB30 GROUPS ARE IN THE TAFS FOR KBIL/KSHR/KMLS WITH HAIL
MENTIONED FOR KMLS. LEFT HAIL MENTION OUT OF KSHR FOR NOW AS
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY JUST EAST OF THAT TERMINAL. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 06Z THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/091 062/091 063/096 066/103 070/106 072/098 071/094
22/T 20/U 00/U 00/G 00/G 00/U 11/U
LVM 054/089 054/089 055/095 058/098 061/101 064/095 062/090
12/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 00/G 01/U 13/T
HDN 059/091 060/091 061/097 063/104 067/107 070/100 069/096
32/U 21/U 10/U 00/G 00/G 00/U 12/W
MLS 057/087 061/090 061/097 067/103 071/106 074/101 071/096
41/U 21/U 00/U 00/G 00/G 10/G 11/U
4BQ 060/089 061/090 061/096 067/103 071/106 074/101 070/096
42/U 22/T 20/U 10/G 00/G 00/G 11/U
BHK 052/083 057/089 057/093 062/101 066/103 068/100 065/094
40/B 12/T 10/U 10/G 00/G 00/U 01/U
SHR 056/087 056/088 056/095 061/101 064/106 069/099 067/095
44/T 33/T 10/U 00/G 00/G 00/U 13/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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