831
FXUS65 KBYZ 090706
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
106 AM MDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TRENDING DRIER TODAY; A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EAST
AND SOUTH.
- RECORD HOT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK! HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS OVER THE WEEKEND, AND
TEMPS ON SUNDAY MAY CHALLENGE ALL-TIME RECORDS.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION FROM THE SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL DIMINISH
EARLY THIS MORNING. A SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
ZONAL FLOW OVER THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND OVER FAR SOUTHEAST MT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH
THE BETTER INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS TO THE EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 80S TO LOWER 90S TODAY. AS
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FURTHER INTO THE 90S FOR MANY PLACES. WEAK ENERGY MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
LATE IN THE DAY EVENING.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE CONTINUES TO
BE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN STRONG RIDGING AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH HEIGHTS
BUILDING OVER THE REGION. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 500MB HEIGHTS
APPROACHING 596-600 DM FOR SUNDAY. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT
(700MB TEMPERATURES NEAR OR EXCEEDING 20C BY SUNDAY AND 850 MB
TEMPERATURES OF 35-40C) WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
100S SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE CHANCES AT LOCATIONS FROM BILLINGS
EAST REACHING 110F SUNDAY. RECORD TO NEAR RECORD HIGHS, AND EVEN
ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS COULD BE THREATENED ON SUNDAY. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THE HEAT, WITH RH VALUES DOWN INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. PREPARE FOR THE
EXTREME HEAT THIS WEEKEND, AS OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF. AN EXTREME HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE IS PROGGED BY ENSEMBLES TO
SHIFT EAST A BIT, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL SLIGHTLY (HIGHS
IN THE 90S), AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR
LOW TO MODERATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
SOMETHING TO WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS.
BELOW ARE THE ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT EACH OF OUR
CLIMATE STATIONS:
BILLINGS, MT 108F
LIVINGSTON, MT 105F
MILES CITY, MT 111F
SHERIDAN, WY 107F
BAKER, MT 109F
STP
AVIATION
SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR SHERIDAN
COUNTY WYOMING AND CARTER COUNTY MONTANA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE 18-00Z TIMEFRAME. THE ONLY TAF SITE THAT
COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS IS KSHR. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY FOR NEARLY ALL OF SOUTHEAST MONTANA. TORGERSON
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 063/097 065/104 069/107 072/100 071/094 068/094
1/U 10/U 20/G 00/G 00/U 11/B 42/T
LVM 090 054/094 056/102 060/101 063/095 062/091 059/093
1/U 01/U 20/G 00/G 01/U 23/T 43/T
HDN 092 061/098 063/104 067/109 070/101 070/097 067/096
0/U 10/U 10/G 00/G 00/G 01/B 32/T
MLS 092 061/099 066/105 070/108 075/102 070/096 068/097
1/U 00/U 10/G 00/G 00/G 01/B 32/W
4BQ 091 061/097 067/104 070/106 075/101 071/099 069/094
1/U 12/W 20/G 00/G 00/G 00/U 32/W
BHK 090 057/094 064/100 067/104 071/100 066/096 064/092
2/U 11/U 10/U 00/G 00/U 11/U 31/B
SHR 088 056/094 060/102 063/105 068/099 066/096 064/094
2/T 11/U 10/G 00/N 00/U 02/T 34/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES
29>34-36-37-40-42-56>58-63>66-138-139-141-169-170-172-173-228-235.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR ZONE 199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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