248
FXUS65 KBYZ 181833
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1233 PM MDT THU JUN 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS.
- INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE, BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...
ENERGY UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE MAIN ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR AREAS
BILLINGS EAST THROUGH AROUND 9PM MDT. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT PROVIDING A WARM AND DRY DAY FOR FRIDAY. INTO SATURDAY,
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MT AND NORTHERN WY.
WITH ENSEMBLES SPLITTING THE ENERGY INTO NORTHERN MT AND NORTHERN
WY, THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND SOUTHEAST MT. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE, WITH PWATS AT
1-1.2" ACROSS SOUTHEAST MT. THIS WILL AID IN HIGHER PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY THERE IS ABOUT A 50-80% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST A
HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION WITH ABOUT A 20-50% CHANCE FOR AN
INCH OVER SOUTHEAST MT THIS WEEKEND. WITH MODEST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ALSO IN PLAY, STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE AT THIS TIME. WITH ENSEMBLES SHOWING THAT NORTHERN WAVE
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY, SMALL TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST. ENSEMBLES THEN
RETURN THE REGION TO RIDGING OR BACK TO NORTHWEST FLOW BY MID WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S. TS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT KBIL AND KMLS
THROUGH AROUND 03Z THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED AND WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT. JW
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/076 055/081 057/079 053/071 049/078 053/084 055/087
20/B 01/E 44/T 54/T 10/U 01/U 21/U
LVM 042/075 047/079 048/077 045/072 042/079 046/084 048/086
00/B 05/T 73/T 43/T 10/U 01/U 21/U
HDN 049/076 054/083 055/078 050/071 046/077 050/083 053/086
20/B 01/E 54/T 66/T 10/U 01/U 21/U
MLS 048/073 051/081 054/074 050/070 047/074 048/079 052/083
40/U 00/B 67/T 46/T 10/U 02/T 22/T
4BQ 050/073 053/081 054/072 050/069 047/073 048/078 052/081
20/U 02/T 98/T 47/T 21/U 11/U 22/T
BHK 043/070 045/076 049/068 045/068 043/070 043/075 048/079
50/U 01/N 78/T 47/T 41/U 01/U 22/T
SHR 044/075 048/080 050/074 046/067 043/075 046/079 049/082
00/B 05/T 77/T 59/T 32/T 13/T 33/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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