579
FXUS65 KBYZ 040754
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
154 AM MDT THU JUN 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AROUND AND EAST OF
BILLINGS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MAIN THREATS WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ARE LARGE HAIL,
STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN. SECONDARY THREAT IS ISOLATED
TORNADOES OVER FAR SOUTH-EASTERN MONTANA.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY WITH A
LATE TODAY COLD FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE OVER EASTERN MONTANA.
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES SUNDAY INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
AS A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST, RETURN EASTERLY FLOW WILL TAP INTO
PLAINS MOISTURE AND ADVECT IT INTO THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS (10-30% CHANCE) OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA.
OVER THE WEST, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (10-30% CHANCE)
ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND
APPROACHES THE AREA OF BETTER MOISTURE, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
(40-60% CHANCE) WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM BILLINGS EAST,
WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE AND WIND
GUSTS OF 60+ MPH. THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ANY STORM AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FROM BROADUS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CARTER
COUNTY. KEEP WEATHER AWARE AND HAVE A PLAN TO SEEK SHELTER IF
STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY, BRINGING WARMER AND
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. A DEEPENING PACIFIC TROUGH OVER THE WEST
COAST WILL GRADUALLY TURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, ALLOWING WIND
GUSTS TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 40 MPH OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS (HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS) FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EARLY SATURDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN WARM AND DRY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH. AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY, SOME ENERGY WILL ENTER THE REGION. COUPLED WITH A
LATE DAY COLD FRONT, THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30-50% CHANCE) OVER EASTERN MONTANA
AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL INFLUENCE WHERE STORMS
DEVELOP.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER AND UNSETTLED, WITH
WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (40-60% CHANCE)
THROUGH THE DAY. INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, CONDITIONS
LOOK TO REMAIN UNSETTLED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, INCREASING TO
GENERALLY 80S TO LOW 90S BY SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL BE COOLER, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM 60S OVER THE WEST TO NEAR 80 OVER THE EAST.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, HIGHS WILL WARM BACK TOWARDS THE 80S. ARCHER
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY. THIS MORNING, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS WEAK THUNDERSTORMS (LOW CHANCE) ARE FORECAST. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY. WITH THIS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ARE LARGE HAIL, WIND GUSTS AROUND 50 KNOTS,
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN CAUSING MVFR CONDITIONS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
IS POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHEASTERN WYOMING
AS WELL (LOW CHANCE). LOOK FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO COME
TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING, EXITING THE AREA BY
AROUND 06Z FRIDAY. THE MOUNTAINS MAY OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED
TODAY. LA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 052/086 057/087 057/072 047/081 055/085 055/080
4/T 10/U 00/B 15/T 21/U 11/B 34/T
LVM 074 044/083 049/082 048/068 038/076 045/076 044/071
3/T 00/U 02/T 36/T 31/U 13/T 46/T
HDN 078 049/086 054/091 054/074 046/082 053/086 053/081
4/T 10/U 00/B 14/T 31/U 11/B 24/T
MLS 077 050/083 058/093 058/076 049/078 057/087 058/083
6/T 20/U 00/U 21/B 41/U 11/B 33/T
4BQ 079 051/085 059/096 059/077 050/080 058/089 058/085
5/T 30/U 00/U 11/B 41/U 11/B 12/T
BHK 077 048/080 055/093 057/079 049/076 054/087 057/084
5/T 60/U 00/U 31/B 41/B 11/B 23/T
SHR 076 046/085 050/091 053/075 044/081 050/086 050/082
4/T 20/U 01/U 16/T 51/U 12/T 24/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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