759
FXUS65 KBYZ 160732
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
132 AM MDT SAT MAY 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TRENDING COOLER WITH PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION (INCLUDING
MOUNTAIN SNOW) TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MONITOR THE FORECAST AS
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
- BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GUSTS 30-45 MPH ARE EXPECTED (HIGHEST ACROSS
DAKOTAS BORDER).
- FROST/FREEZE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAKE
SURE TO PROTECT SENSITIVE PLANTS.
- WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION SOUTHWESTERLY AS TROUGHING
APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW WEAK
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WEST
(LIVINGSTON THROUGH HARLOWTON) MID DAY AND TRANSITION EAST. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR EAST THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE
IT. MODELS GENERALLY HAVE THE LOW SPLITTING WITH THE NORTHERN PART
MOVING NORTHEAST BUT ARE UNCERTAIN ON THE POSITION AND EXACT
TRACK. WITH THIS SETUP, ENSEMBLES HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE LOW WILL FAVOR AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS WITH PRECIPITATION.
THESE AREAS GENERALLY HAVE MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCE OF AT LEAST A
QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AREAS EAST
GENERALLY HAVE ABOUT A 25-50% CHANCE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING PRECIPITATION EAST OF BILLINGS AS THIS PATTERN WILL
FAVOR A DRY SLOT MEANING SOME LOCATIONS MAY GET MUCH LESS
PRECIPITATION THAN THEIR NEIGHBORS. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL GOES, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE FOR NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS AND CRAZY MOUNTAINS.
CURRENTLY, THERE IS A 60-90% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF SNOW
IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS. THE BEARTOOTH/RED LODGE FOOTHILLS AND
BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASE LATE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY, THERE IS ABOUT A 70-90% CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE BIGHORNS WITH A 30-50% CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE BEARTOOTH/RED LODGE
FOOTHILLS. LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, ENSEMBLES SHOW THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LOW MOVING UP THROUGH WY WITH THE POTENTIAL TO MOVE
SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGH SOUTHEAST MT. THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD ON AMOUNTS, BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY A 30-60% CHANCE FOR AT
LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHEAST MT DURING THIS
TIME. ENSEMBLES GENERALLY KEEP THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS AND POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S TODAY, COOLING TO THE
40S AND 50S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE AROUND FREEZING FOR
MUCH OF THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNINGS, SO TAKE CARE
TO PROTECT TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE PLANTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. TS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY WITH
PASSING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
SCATTERED SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS, ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE AREA INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS, THE CHANCE OF SEEING A WEAK
THUNDERSTORM IS 10 TO 20 PERCENT, GREATEST OVER THE FOOTHILLS WEST
OF KBIL AND OVER FAR SOUTH-EASTERN MONTANA. A COLD FRONT WILL DRAG
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND NIGHT.
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING/NIGHT OVER WESTERN
AREAS DUE TO SHOWERS. SNOW IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BRING
OBSCURATIONS LATE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 071 041/055 036/046 033/061 039/068 042/072 047/078
2/W 72/W 45/W 21/B 02/T 21/B 12/T
LVM 062 031/047 028/046 026/059 033/062 036/070 041/074
6/T +5/T 77/W 21/B 12/T 21/B 13/T
HDN 075 039/057 034/047 031/061 035/069 040/073 044/079
2/W 41/N 46/W 21/B 02/T 21/B 11/B
MLS 076 045/059 035/047 034/058 036/068 041/071 045/078
2/W 31/N 35/W 42/W 01/B 11/B 11/B
4BQ 077 045/059 035/043 032/055 034/066 041/069 044/076
1/B 30/N 48/W 63/W 01/B 11/B 12/T
BHK 074 043/058 031/043 029/053 032/065 039/068 043/075
2/B 63/W 27/W 63/W 01/B 11/B 12/T
SHR 073 037/054 030/040 027/055 030/063 035/068 038/076
1/B 23/W 79/W 52/T 13/T 22/W 12/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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