211
FXUS65 KBYZ 060645
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1245 AM MDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY WARM, DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY. FIRE
CONCERNS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED, AND MAY BE CRITICAL ON FRIDAY
WITH INCREASED WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITIES.
- PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BECOMING MORE LIKELY. DETAILS STILL VERY
UNCERTAIN. WET SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...
A DRY ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING CONTINUED WARM & DRY WEATHER THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH TEMPS MOSTLY 70S TO LOWER 80S. THERE ARE A FEW
DETAILS. A WEAK FRONT ARRIVES TODAY BRINGING SOMEWHAT BREEZY NW
WINDS DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS, WHICH ALONG WITH ANOTHER DAY
OF LOW HUMIDITY WILL KEEP FIRE CONCERNS ELEVATED (THOUGH IT WON'T
BE AS WARM/DRY/WINDY AS MONDAY). BEHIND THE FRONT WE WILL SEE A
COUPLE DAYS OF EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND THUS SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY. AMPLIFICATION AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
OVER BC WILL PUSH TEMPS/DOWNSLOPE WINDS UP AND HUMIDITY DOWN ON A
PRE-FRONTAL FRIDAY. THIS IS A DAY TO WATCH WITH REGARD TO FIRE
WEATHER, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRETCH OF WARMTH/DRYNESS
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE IS THE FACT THAT THE
COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY (STRONG
MODEL CONSENSUS HERE). THE DELAYED FROPA WILL ALLEVIATE ANY
FRONTAL WIND CONCERN DURING THE HEAT OF DAY, BUT IT DOES OPEN THE
DOOR TO POTENTIAL MOUNTAIN WAVES IN THE LEE OF THE BEARTOOTHS AND
BIGHORNS EARLY SATURDAY. 700MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KNOTS
SUGGESTS WESTERN FOOTHILLS GUSTS TO 40 MPH ALONG THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS FRIDAY, THEN PERHAPS 30-40 MPH ERRATIC GUSTS INTO EARLY
SATURDAY IF THERE ARE MOUNTAIN WAVES. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLES SHOW 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR +10C BY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON (AGAIN, STARTING WITH AN EARLY MORNING FROPA, HIGH TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE EARLY IN THE DAY), THEN NEAR 0C BY 12Z SUNDAY.
THIS IS WHERE CONFIDENCE ENDS. THE AFOREMENTIONED BC LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DROP IN SOME FASHION TO THE PACNW SATURDAY AND GREAT
BASIN SUNDAY-MONDAY. FURTHERMORE, REMNANTS FROM HURRICANE RACHEL
ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT THRU THE SW CONUS AS THE LOW OVER THE WEST
DEEPENS, POTENTIALLY BEING A PLAYER IN OUR REGION WITH ITS
MOISTURE CONTENT. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE. IF THE LOW
ENDS UP CUTTING OFF TOO FAR WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF US,
DYNAMICS FOR PRECIP ARE WEAKER AND OUR TEMPS WILL BE WARMER. IF
THE LOW DRIVES MORE AGGRESSIVELY TO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN IT
MAY SHUNT THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR EAST, BUT PRECIP CHANCES
OVERALL WILL BE GREATER. TAKING A LOOK AT 06/12Z CLUSTER ANALYSES
THERE IS CLEARLY VERY HIGH SPREAD, BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THERE IS
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN (1) MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND (2) A DEEP
LOW IMPACTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE WESTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS REGARDING POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN OUR
FORECAST AREA ARE IMPOSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. MOUNTAIN SNOW IS
LOOKING LIKELY, AND THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPE SNOW
FOR OUR WESTERN FOOTHILLS (LOOKING AT YOU, MELVILLE). LOWER
ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY THE WEST HALF OF OUR CWA, ARE AT RISK OF
SEEING SOME WET SNOW ACCUMULATION AS WELL (THIS INCLUDES
BILLINGS). IF THE UPPER LOW TAKES A TRACK FAVORABLE FOR PROLONGED
DYNAMIC FORCING IN OUR REGION, A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL EVENT IS
POSSIBLE. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT FORCING MISSES US AND SURFACE
TEMPS REMAIN TOO WARM. INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A VERY
LARGE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL QPF AND SNOWFALL. FOR NOW, KEEP
MONITORING THE FORECAST, AND PLEASE DO NOT TAKE SERIOUSLY ANY
SPECIFIC SNOWFALL FORECASTS YOU MAY SEE SO FAR IN ADVANCE. STAY
TUNED.
TAKING A LOOK AT A FEW WAY-TO-EARLY NBM PROBABILITIES, THE CHANCE
OF 1+ INCHES OF SNOW RANGES FROM 10% OVER EASTERN VALLEYS, TO
20-40% CENTRAL LOWER ELEVATIONS (INCLUDING BILLINGS) AND 65-75%
ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS. THERE ARE PLENTY OF LEAVES ON AREA
TREES SO THE WEIGHT OF ANY WET SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC.
THE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT US IN SOME FASHION THROUGH
MONDAY, BEFORE EXITING TO OUR EAST/SOUTH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, AFTER THE VERY WARM WEEK, LOOK FOR
FALLING TEMPS SATURDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS (HIGHS IN 30S TO
NEAR 50F, WARMEST EAST) SUNDAY & MONDAY.
JKL
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, UNDER
SCATTERED MID/HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT BREEZY NW WINDS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LOOK FOR
15-25 KNOT GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NOON TIL SUNSET. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 081 048/075 044/076 047/083 052/067 033/043 030/048
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 01/B 77/W 65/W
LVM 082 044/079 041/080 045/082 046/066 026/041 022/048
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/N 15/W 88/W 74/W
HDN 082 044/075 040/075 044/084 048/070 032/046 029/050
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 67/W 64/W
MLS 077 046/072 044/072 047/081 050/068 040/046 032/049
0/U 00/B 00/U 00/B 00/B 56/W 65/W
4BQ 079 047/075 045/075 048/084 052/073 041/048 036/050
0/U 00/B 00/U 00/U 00/U 46/W 65/W
BHK 078 045/073 042/074 045/082 050/073 038/051 031/048
0/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 00/B 56/W 65/W
SHR 083 042/077 041/077 042/085 048/074 034/047 026/049
0/U 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 67/W 74/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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