014
FXUS65 KBYZ 300700
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
100 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD FRONT TODAY BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE FOR AREAS BILLINGS EAST.
- WEST WIND GUSTS OF 25-40 MPH EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S TODAY, WARMING INTO THE
80S AND LOW 90S BY MID-WEEK.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
CURRENT ANALYSIS IS SHOWING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN WASHINGTON WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE MOVING
THROUGH WESTERN MT. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL MT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY, BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY DURING THE MORNING, THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ON
THE WEAKER SIDE. MOST HI-RES MODELS DO SHOW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PUSH, BUT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN GAIN SOME INSTABILITY BACK BY
MID DAY. THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE ONLY ISOLATED POCKETS OF CAPE
VALUES OF 500-700 J/KG, GENERALLY FOR AREAS BILLINGS EAST. THIS
WILL LEND WAY TO A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BEHIND
THE FRONT, STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
WITH SOME SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS 25-40 MPH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS IN THE 20S (MPH) AS THE LOW DEPARTS MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, AS CONDITIONS COOL INTO THE LOW 30S IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, UP TO A INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST PEAKS
(GENERALLY ABOVE 10,000 FT) IN THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND CRAZY
MOUNTAINS.
INTO NEXT WEEK, BRIEF RIDGING MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, LEADING TO SMALL DAILY CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WOULD AFFECT PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE AND TIMING LATER IN THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLEST TODAY, IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND 80S,
WITH SOME PLACES REACHING THE LOW 90S BY LATE WEEK. TS
AVIATION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
PERIODICALLY IMPACT THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN,
AND SMALL HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS
MORNING WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS
20-35KTS TO THE AREA, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WILDFIRE
SMOKE CAUSING REDUCED SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY AT TIMES. IN THE
MOUNTAINS, MID- CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO PERIODICALLY
CAUSE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. LA/TS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 075 050/081 054/084 057/088 058/087 056/085 057/081
6/T 00/U 00/B 10/U 10/B 11/U 11/B
LVM 073 040/080 045/081 047/081 045/080 044/080 046/078
7/T 00/U 02/T 31/N 00/B 11/U 22/T
HDN 076 046/083 051/086 052/091 051/089 052/088 053/083
5/T 00/U 00/B 10/U 10/U 10/U 11/U
MLS 076 049/081 051/085 056/090 057/088 057/088 059/083
6/T 00/U 01/B 10/U 20/U 10/U 11/U
4BQ 079 050/082 055/084 056/090 057/089 059/089 060/084
5/T 00/U 04/T 10/U 10/U 10/U 11/U
BHK 082 044/082 047/084 051/089 054/089 054/089 055/085
6/T 00/U 02/T 41/U 21/U 10/U 11/U
SHR 076 044/082 048/083 050/088 049/088 050/087 051/083
5/T 00/U 02/T 00/U 00/U 11/U 12/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page