095
FXUS65 KBYZ 212320
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
520 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND MOSTLY DRY TODAY.
- WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND. A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD BE STRONG, WITH
WIND THE MAIN THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL.
- DRIER WITH SEASONAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK AND AN OCCASIONAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST BROUGHT WARM
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA TODAY. THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST ON
SATURDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION, AS
AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE PAC NW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OUT OF
THE SOUTH, WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.25-1.5 INCHES (150-200% OF
NORMAL). A WEAK SHORTWAVE LIFTING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE COULD BE A COUPLE STRONG STORMS, WITH
STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. WITH THE HIGH PWATS, ANY
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE UPPER LOW PUSHES EAST ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, BREAKING DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE. AS THE LOW SLIDES EAST, AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
SUNDAY. AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY AS PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS BRING
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 15-30 MPH, WITH HUMIDITY DOWN NEAR 20
PERCENT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL, WITH GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL. MONDAY WILL SEE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
COOLER. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY, WITH WEAK IMPULSES AND MOISTURE BRINGING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, GREATEST IN THE SOUTH. YET
ANOTHER BREAK DOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD OCCUR BY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE 80S TO LOWER 90S
SATURDAY, TO THE 90S MANY PLACES ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES THEN COOL
BACK INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STP
AVIATION
00Z TAF DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT, WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
DEVELOPING FOR MOST AREAS BY SUNSET, CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. BY 20Z EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS, SPREADING
NORTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE WET WITH
VISIBILITY REDUCTION TO 4SM POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LOCALIZED WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065/091 066/095 064/089 063/087 063/091 062/089 061/088
02/T 42/T 40/U 10/B 11/B 21/B 20/B
LVM 059/089 056/090 053/088 052/086 053/088 052/086 050/085
14/T 63/T 20/U 22/T 21/B 21/U 21/U
HDN 064/095 064/097 062/090 058/089 058/093 060/091 058/090
02/T 31/B 30/U 00/B 11/B 31/B 10/B
MLS 064/092 068/095 066/089 060/087 058/091 063/089 060/089
00/B 51/B 20/U 00/U 00/U 21/B 21/B
4BQ 064/090 067/094 066/089 061/087 059/090 063/089 060/089
01/B 41/U 20/U 11/B 01/U 21/B 21/B
BHK 056/088 061/093 061/090 056/087 053/089 057/089 055/088
00/U 54/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 22/T 22/T
SHR 060/092 061/092 059/087 055/085 054/088 056/088 055/087
03/T 24/T 11/U 12/T 11/B 11/B 11/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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