791
FXUS65 KBYZ 080656
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1256 AM MDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT, DRY AND OCCASIONALLY BREEZY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER TODAY; FOLLOWED BY ELEVATED SUNDAY.
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL KEEP SKIES HAZY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
AND WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE AIR QUALITY. FOR THE LATEST AIR
QUALITY, VISIT AIRNOW.GOV.
- TRENDING MORE HUMID; INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN SE MT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO END
THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS...
A HOT, DRY, AND BREEZY WEEKEND IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.
TODAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE STRETCH WHERE THE ENTIRE CWA
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S WITH LOCALIZED TRIPLE DIGITS.
TEMPS WILL THEN RETURN BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL COOLDOWN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THESE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND, THERE WILL BE VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE. MIN RH VALUES WERE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE CWA
FRIDAY AND ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO GET WORSE TODAY. WINDS HAVE BEGUN
TO SHIFT OUT OF THE WNW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP
KEEP THE RH RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT POOR FOLLOWED BY VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY.
THE LAST PIECE OF THIS FIRE WEATHER PUZZLE IS THAT OF THE WINDS.
AS WE RAPIDLY INCREASE THE MIXING HEIGHT WITH HOT TEMPERATURES
TODAY WE WILL SEE 30 TO 40 KT WINDS AT THE 700-500MB LAYER IN
PLAY TO GET MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH THE WIDESPREAD
WILDFIRE SMOKE REGION-WIDE MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN A PINCH, THESE
WINDS ARE THE STRONGEST WE HAVE SEEN ALOFT IN A WHILE WHICH IS
CAUSE FOR CONCERN. THERE ARE SEVERAL "WHAT IF" QUESTIONS FOR THE
FIRE WEATHER INGREDIENTS BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS TO BE A VERY CLEAR
CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS DAY. AS A RESULT, A RED FLAG WARNING
IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT. FOR SUNDAY ALL OF THE
SAME INGREDIENTS ARE PRESENT, HOWEVER ALL OF THEM GET SLIGHTLY
LESS FAVORABLE WHICH WILL MEAN THAT THE WHOLE REGION WILL BE IN
THE "ELEVATED" LEVEL OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL REMAIN AN ISSUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE RIDGE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE, THE MID
LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AND THUS ADVECTING THE SMOKE FROM
THE SEVERAL PNW FIRES INTO OUR REGION. ADDITIONALLY THERE ARE
SOME VERY SMOKY FIRES IN SW MT INCREASING CONCENTRATIONS FOR
LOCATIONS NEAR LIVINGSTON WHERE AN AQA REMAINS IN EFFECT AT THE
TIME OF WRITING THIS. WHILE LIVINGSTON WILL REMAIN SOCKED IN SMOKE
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE SURFACE SMOKE
COME IN AND OUT DUE TO SHIFTING LOW LEVEL WINDS AND SUBSIDENCE EVEN
THOUGH THE SMOKE ALOFT WILL REMAIN STEADY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WORK WEEK THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL QUESTIONS
REGARDING THE FORECAST. WHAT I CAN SAY WITH SOME CONFIDENCE
THROUGH IS THAT A PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA. AS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN RIDGE CONTINUES TO BATTLE WITH THE HUDSON BAY LOW
IT APPEARS THAT THE RIDGE MAY BACK OFF JUST ENOUGH TO ALLOW WAVES
OF ENERGY TO PIVOT THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. THE FIRST OF THESE
COULD MAKE AN APPEARANCE ON MONDAY, BUT MODELS ARE STILL IN
DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW FAR WEST THE MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL
MAKE IT. AS OF NOW, THE FARTHEST WEST SOLUTION STILL KEEPS ALL OF
THE PRECIP EAST OF MILES CITY. THE OTHER GOOD NEWS WITH THIS
PATTERN CHANGE IS THAT THIS WOULD ALLOW FOR THE RETURN OF GREAT
PLAINS MOISTURE IN THE CWA, ESPECIALLY FOR SE MONTANA. THIS WIND
SHIFT ADVECTING IN THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD ALSO HELP IN
DECREASING SOME OF THE WIDESPREAD SMOKE. AFTER ANOTHER SHOT AT
SOMETHING WEAK MIDWEEK THERE IS A CONTINUED SIGNAL FOR SOMETHING
OF NOTE TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE AREA LATE WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE LONG RANGE MODELS STILL SHOW SOME NOTEWORTHY
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN EACH OTHER AND FROM RUN TO RUN, I AM FINALLY
SEEING AT LEAST SOME AGREEMENT. IT APPEARS THAT A PRETTY DECENT
SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR COULD DROP OUT OF AB AND INTO THE
PLAINS BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A GOOD
TEMPERATURE COOLDOWN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING
HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE WHICH WILL BE
QUITE WELCOME JUST A WEEK AFTER HITTING TRIPLE DIGITS YET AGAIN.
THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE NEXT THING TO KEEP OUR EYES ON AS IT
COULD BE THE FIRST IMPACTFUL PRECIP EVENT IN SEVERAL WEEKS.
WMR/ARCHER
AVIATION
SMOKE IS MOST CONCENTRATED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MT AND NORTHERN WY
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE OVER THE REGION. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE FOR KLVM TO CONTINUE MVFR VISIBILITY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. KSHR HAS A MODERATE CHANCE FOR MVFR VISIBILITY AT
TIMES THROUGH THE EVENING. SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AFFECTED ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK FRONT WILL SHIFT WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 097 063/093 062/091 064/091 063/082 058/074 054/073
0/K 00/K 00/U 00/U 11/B 45/W 63/W
LVM 095 055/093 054/092 055/091 053/083 049/075 046/074
0/K 00/K 00/U 00/U 01/U 24/T 53/T
HDN 099 060/094 057/095 059/092 059/084 055/076 051/075
0/K 00/K 00/U 00/U 12/W 46/W 64/W
MLS 097 060/093 060/092 061/090 060/082 055/077 053/075
0/K 00/K 01/U 01/U 24/T 55/T 54/W
4BQ 098 062/094 061/093 063/090 062/083 057/076 055/074
0/K 00/K 00/U 11/U 25/T 56/T 74/T
BHK 096 056/089 055/090 056/088 054/080 050/074 048/072
0/K 01/K 12/T 22/T 45/T 45/T 65/W
SHR 098 058/094 058/094 058/090 057/083 053/075 050/073
0/K 00/K 00/U 01/U 13/T 47/T 65/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
ZONE 117.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 123>133.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
MDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONES 274-284.
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