044
FXUS65 KBYZ 222324
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
524 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- WARMER AND DRIER MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. 80S RETURN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE (<30%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- UNSETTLED AND COOLER SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING, BRINGING A
CHANCE (20-50%) FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED, BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH AND POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAIN.
THE REST OF WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND WARMER UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. HIGHS INCREASE FROM
70S WEDNESDAY TO UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY, ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO SLIDE THROUGH WYOMING AND
EASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY, BRINGING A LOW CHANCE (10-30%) FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF BILLINGS.
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN
MONTANA INTO CANADA. AN ASSOCIATED MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL
ALLOW HIGHS TO BE MUCH COOLER SATURDAY, IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
SINCE THE TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION, PRECIPITATION IS
UNLIKELY, WITH GENERALLY A LESS THAN 20% CHANCE. HOWEVER, THE COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD BREEZY CONDITIONS OF 20 TO 35 MPH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, WITH SOME STRONGER GUSTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, THERE ARE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, ALTHOUGH THESE CONCERNS ARE LIMITED BY THE
RECENT WIDESPREAD RAIN.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE, ALLOWING A 20-50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND TEMPERATURES TO DECREASE TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, IN THE 60S, BY MONDAY. ARCHER
AVIATION
00Z TAF/AVIATION DISCUSSION...A DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, EXITING THE
AREA MID TO LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ENERGY
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE EXPECTED SHOWER
ACTIVITY THROUGH 07Z MAINLY EAST OF ROSEBUD COUNTY. AFTER 07Z,
ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME AREAS OF
STRATUS, FOG, AND DRIZZLE THROWN IN. FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
TOUCHY AS WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL BE ABOVE 10KTS OVERNIGHT
INTO THE MORNING HOURS, AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE NEAR
SURFACE STIRRED UP ENOUGH FOR JUST STRATUS. EITHER WAY EXPECT VFR
TO LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE PREVALENT WITH LOCAL
IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS MIXED IN DUE TO THE STRATUS AND FOG
POTENTIAL. MOST LIKELY AREA FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER SE
MONTANA, INCLUDING KMLS/KBHK. FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT/DISSIPATE AFTER 15-17Z TOMORROW MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES AFTER ABOUT 16Z, BUT DOESN'T COMPLETELY GO AWAY UNTIL
21-23Z TOMORROW. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 056/077 052/080 054/080 055/068 047/064 048/063 045/064
52/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 01/B 22/W 21/B
LVM 049/075 045/080 048/082 047/067 041/067 041/063 038/065
51/U 00/U 00/B 00/B 10/B 33/W 21/B
HDN 052/077 047/083 052/081 051/069 044/067 045/064 041/066
54/W 00/U 00/B 00/B 00/B 22/W 21/B
MLS 054/075 049/082 056/078 054/070 047/069 048/066 045/065
55/T 00/U 01/B 00/U 00/B 22/W 22/W
4BQ 053/075 049/080 055/077 053/072 048/072 050/067 046/066
31/U 00/U 03/T 00/U 00/B 22/W 32/W
BHK 049/074 046/082 051/075 051/073 045/072 045/068 042/066
64/T 00/U 02/W 10/U 10/B 33/W 32/W
SHR 048/073 043/078 049/078 050/073 043/071 044/065 039/065
21/U 00/U 11/B 00/B 01/B 23/W 31/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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