410
FXUS65 KBYZ 130828
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
228 AM MDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PACIFIC MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL INTERACT WITH
COLDER AIR THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT TO PRODUCE PERIODS OF WET
SNOW.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-4 FEET FORECAST FOR AREA MOUNTAINS.
- AROUND 6-14 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
WITH THE HIGHEST NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF BILLINGS. THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTHEAST MT AND THE FOOTHILLS MAY SEE 4-8 INCHES.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
CURRENT CONDITIONS REFLECT DECREASING 700 MB WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA, GENERALLY SITTING AT 40-50 KTS. WITH HIGHER PRESSURE FILLING
IN AND PRECIPITATION IN PROGRESS, THESE WINDS WILL NO LONGER POSE
A THREAT AND THEREFORE ALL HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELED.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT WITH
GUSTS IN THE 30S AND 40S MPH. ADDITIONALLY, A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH NOON
TODAY WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED (HIGHEST ALONG THE
HIGHER HILLS). MODELS GENERALLY SHOW A BREAK IN PRECIP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH MORE ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED FOR AN EXTENDED OR ADDITIONAL ADVISORY.
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN UNDER WESTERLY FLOW
UNTIL TROUGHING AND A FINAL COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF A TRICKY FORECAST GIVEN THE OVER
RUNNING PATTERN AND ITS TENDENCY TO HAVE VARIABLE BEHAVIOR IN
WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN
THE WETBULB TEMPERATURES ARE HOVERING RIGHT AROUND 32 DEGREES
GIVES WAY TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS.
THAT BEING SAID THERE IS CONFIDENCE IN A TWO AND A HALF DAY PERIOD
OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. WITH THAT, WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT FOR AMOUNTS OF 6-14
INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. KEEP IN MIND THAT
ELEVATION WILL PLAY AND IMPORTANT ROLE IN SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
(VALLEYS BEING RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES AND HIGHER HILLS GETTING
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS). THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ON
JUST HOW MUCH TEMPS WILL WARM FOR THE DAY FRIDAY, CREATING A
LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY IN ACCUMULATIONS. THE BETTER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR COMES IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FINAL COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL GOES FOR THE
ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS, AREAS LIKE LIVINGSTON LIKELY WON'T
GET INTO THE COLD AIR UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT, KEEPING RAIN AS THE
MAIN PRECIP TYPE. FOR AREAS LIKE RED LODGE, A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL
NOT ACCUMULATE TO MUCH, BUT LOOK FOR CHANCES OR SNOW TO INCREASE
TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AS A MORE UPSLOPE PATTERN COMES
INTO PLAY. SOUTHEAST MT CAN EXPECT TO SEE 4 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN MIXING IN DURING THE DAY
TODAY.
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, HEIGHTS BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN WITH A BRIEF
DISTURBANCE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT
SNOW TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ENSEMBLES BRINGING IN A TENTH O AN INCH
OR LESS FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RISE
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S AND 70S BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TS
AVIATION
06Z TAF DISCUSSION...
A BROAD NW-SE ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIPITATION (MAINLY SNOW) HAS
FILLED IN OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THIS BAND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE NIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. A WIGGLE NORTHWARD IN THE JET STREAM WILL PULL
THIS BAND A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST TOMORROW. UNDER THE BANDING
IFR/LIFR, WITH LOCAL VLIFR, CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH
INDEFINITE CEILINGS UNDER 1KFT AND VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS 1/2SM IN
SNOW AND FOG. ON THE EDGES OF THIS BANDING MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED.
FOR KBIL THE CURRENT CONDITIONS OF 1 TO 2SM AND SNOW WITH
INDEFINITE CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF SNOW TO
MODERATE LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE
MORNING PUSH. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATIONS THAT VISIBILITIES TO
UNDER A QUARTER MILE COULD DEVELOP AROUND 10Z AND PERSIST THROUGH
14Z OR SO. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THAT FOR THE 12Z TAFS, BUT DIDN'T
WANT TO LOCK THAT IN RIGHT NOW.
AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN AS TO WHETHER THE LOWER
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE KLVM TERMINAL. MODELS ARE
TRYING TO KEEP A WESTERLY WIND IN THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND
ACTUALLY THROUGH TOMORROW. IF THIS HOLDS THEN VFR CEILINGS AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS WILL PREVAIL WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30+KTS AT
TIMES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. IF WINDS DO TURN NORTHWEST OR
EASTERLY EXPECT THOSE LOWER CEILINGS AND INCREASED PRECIPITATION
TO QUICKLY, IF NOT TEMPORARILY, FILL INTO THE LIVINGSTON AREA.
MILES CITY (KMLS) IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION AND
WILL LIKELY SEE LIGHT SNOW DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF
VISIBILITY REDUCED TO 2SM AROUND SUNRISE AS THE SNOW BAND SHIFTS
NORTH A BIT, WITH LIGHT SNOW AND IFR/LIFR CEILINGS CONTINUING
FOR THE DAY FRIDAY.
SHERIDAN (KSHR) WILL BE THE REVERSE OF KMLS IN THAT THE POOR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE AS THE SHIFT OF THE
SNOW BAND NORTHEAST BEGINS. THAT SAID THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
OF AN UPSLOPE EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT THROUGH THE DAY THAT COULD
AT LEAST KEEP AN LIFR CEILING IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY, IF NOT
ALSO ENHANCING SNOWFALL OVER THE AIRPORT. MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
12Z TAFS IF THIS MODEL TREND BECOMES MORE OF AN OBSERVED TREND
OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 039 029/039 013/032 016/047 040/065 044/073 047/076
+/O 9+/S 92/S 12/O 21/N 00/B 00/B
LVM 054 038/047 016/036 024/052 044/062 045/069 047/072
8/R 8+/O 82/S 45/O 41/N 00/N 00/N
HDN 040 027/042 013/031 011/047 035/065 039/075 041/078
+/O 9+/S 94/S 12/O 21/N 01/B 11/B
MLS 036 025/034 011/023 006/037 030/057 039/067 041/070
7/S 79/S 82/S 02/O 11/B 00/B 01/B
4BQ 040 027/040 013/026 008/040 031/062 041/071 042/075
8/O 79/S 93/S 01/E 21/B 00/B 00/U
BHK 035 022/031 008/021 002/033 023/055 036/065 040/066
6/S 59/S 92/S 02/S 22/W 00/B 00/B
SHR 047 026/048 010/029 010/045 032/065 038/072 040/075
7/O 69/O +4/S 02/O 21/B 00/B 00/B
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 29>31-34-36-42-57-58-63-67-68-138-141-171>173-228-235.
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING FOR ZONES 32-33-37.
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ZONES 56-66.
WY...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
198.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR
ZONE 199.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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