856
FXUS65 KBYZ 251842
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1242 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY HOT AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 75 MPH.
- LOW RISK (10-30%) OF DAILY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS...
THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER CONTINUE AS OUR WEATHER FOR THE NEXT WEEK
WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A STRONG RIDGE EVER SO SLOWLY MIGRATING
EASTWARDS. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION
WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING THEIR HIGHEST TEMPS OF THE STRETCH
THIS AFTERNOON. 700MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE UPPER TEENS BUT THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONGST
MODELS WITH THE LATEST RUNS. THE ECMWF NOTABLY HAS 700MB TEMPS
CONSISTENTLY 2C LOWER THAN THE GFS DOES WHICH WOULD MEAN THAT SOME
PLACES MY STRUGGLE TO SEE 100F THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE RIDGE IN PLACE, THE CURRENT TREND IN TEMPERATURES SO FAR
TODAY, AND THE HIGHS WE HIT YESTERDAY THE WARMER TEMPS SEEM LIKE
THE MORE BELIEVABLE OUTCOME. THAT BEING SAID, THERE WAS A DECENT
AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, ALONG WITH SOME SMOKE, AROUND
THE REGION THIS MORNING THAT IS SLOWLY CLEARING OUT WHICH COULD
HELP NEGATE SOME SOLAR DAYTIME HEATING. PLACES IN THE EASTERN CWA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HIT TIPPLE DIGITS EASY TODAY HOWEVER, LOCATIONS
IN THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEM LIKE THE FINAL PIECE
OF THE PUZZLE MAY JUST BE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND WHAT TIME
THAT GETS GOING. REGARDLESS, IT WILL STILL BE QUITE HOT FOR
EVERYONE TODAY.
EVEN WITH OUR DEW POINTS IN THE 50S F FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY,
TEMPS CLIMBING TO NEAR OR ABOVE 100F WILL BRING RH VALUES DOWN
INTO THE TEENS OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, THE WARM NIGHT LAST
NIGHT ONLY ALLOWED FOR MODEST RECOVERIES AT BEST. WITH RECORD
HIGHS IN JEOPARDY AND THE RH VALUES QUITE LOW, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS CONTINUE TODAY. THESE CONCERNS WILL BE FURTHER AMPLIFIED
BY THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA SHOW TEXTBOOK INVEERTED-V SOUNDINGS WITH
MANY LOCATIONS COMPLETELY DRY ADIABATIC UP THROUGH THE 500MB
LEVEL. WITH A DECENT SHORTWAVE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE TERRAIN
KICKING OFF STORMS LATER TODAY AND THE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE,
CONVECTION SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUE GETTING GOING. THE TWO MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE WINDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY
LIGHTNING. EVEN IF THE MID LEVELS ARE VERY WELL SATURATED, RAIN
WITH THE WEAKER CELLS MAY STRUGGLE TO FALL THROUGH 3-4KM OF DRY
AIR. THIS SETUP IS ALSO TEXTBOOK FOR DRY MICROBURSTS AND STRONG,
FAR REACHING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ALL OF WHICH ARE CAUSE FOR
CONCERN WHEN IT COMES TO FIRE STARTS AND SPREAD. BE EXTRA CAUTIOUS
TO NOT SPARK A FIRE TODAY AND REPORT ANY SPARKS THAT YOU DO SEE.
IN TERMS OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY, THE THE THREATS FOR TODAY ARE
PRETTY MUCH ONLY WHAT I MENTIONED ABOVE. LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS
MAY SUPPORT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FEW LINES OF CONVECTION BY THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE STORMS MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH AND EAST OF
BILLINGS. ML CAPE TODAY MAY REACH 1000 J/KG AT BEST IN THE WESTERN
PART OF THE CWA BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN THE MID
LEVELS IN THE FORM OF LONG/SKINNY CAPE. WHILE THIS COULD SUPPORT
SOME HAIL GROWTH IN THE STRONGER STORMS, THE LACK OF SHEER
COMBINED WITH THE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
SEVERE HAIL REACHING THE GROUND TODAY.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IN MANY ASPECTS. WHILE MODELS
AND ENSEMBLES BRING TEMPS DOWN JUST A SKOSH, MANY LOCATIONS STILL
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF TOUCHING TRIPLE DIGITS, ESEPCAILLY IN THE
PLAINS OF EASTERN MONTANA. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT ANOTHER
POTENTIAL VORT MAX RIDING THE RIDGE AND AIDING IN INITIATING
CONVECTION OFF OF TERRIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH ANOTHER
INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING, I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
COUPLE OF STORMS KICK OUT SEVERE WIND GUSTS AGAIN TOMORROW. THE
CONTINUED HEAT, LOW RH VALUES, AND CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
THE UNFORTUNATE NEWS IS THAT THERE IS REALLY NO PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK AND THUS THE RIDGE SHOWS LITTLE
TO NO SIGNS OF CHANGING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS IN THE 90S TO
100S APPEAR LIKELY TO STICK AROUND INTO FOR THE REMAINDER OF JULY.
THIS COULD PULL SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION WITH
THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY, PARTICULARLY
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LOW ANY
GIVEN DAY WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR WETTING RAIN.
THERE IS SOME HOPE AT A POTENTIAL RIDGE CRASHER EVENT NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH WOULD USHER IN COOLER TEMPS BEHIND IT. THIS COULD
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE SOME STORMS AS WELL
SO WE WILL NEED TO KEEP ANN EYE ON THIS, BUT FOR NOW ALL
ATTENTION REMAINS ON THE HEAT. WMR
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND MOVE NORTHEAST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THUNDERSTORMS IS GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS OF 40 TO 60 KTS. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL, WITH
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE, WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM DISTANT WILDFIRES MAY REDUCE SLANT
RANGE VISIBILITY AT TIMES, MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MONTANA. HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGH DENSITY
ALTITUDE AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND. LT/STP
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068/099 067/097 066/100 067/099 067/099 066/101 067/102
32/W 21/B 20/U 11/U 11/U 10/G 10/G
LVM 060/096 058/095 057/097 058/097 057/097 058/100 059/101
34/T 32/T 20/U 11/U 11/U 10/U 00/G
HDN 065/100 064/099 064/101 064/100 064/100 064/101 065/103
22/K 30/U 11/G 11/U 21/U 20/G 10/G
MLS 071/101 069/101 068/103 070/103 069/100 068/102 070/104
20/G 20/G 22/T 21/G 22/T 21/G 10/G
4BQ 070/100 068/100 068/100 069/100 068/098 067/099 069/101
20/U 31/U 22/T 23/T 32/T 31/U 20/G
BHK 069/101 065/101 065/100 066/102 065/098 064/098 065/101
30/G 43/T 11/U 23/T 32/T 31/U 10/G
SHR 064/097 062/095 061/097 062/097 061/096 061/098 062/099
22/U 42/T 21/U 12/T 22/T 11/U 01/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR
ZONES 29>34-36-37-42-56>58-66-138-139-169-170-173-235.
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONES
40-63>65-141-172-228.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 117-123>133.
WY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR ZONE
199.
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 274-284.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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