976
FXUS65 KBYZ 111848
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1148 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND; TEMPS 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- GUSTY WINDS RETURN TO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS BY THE WEEKEND;
30-50% CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING 50 MPH AT LIVINGSTON.
- BECOMING COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...
LIGHT SNOW IN THE BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN
END AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THE MOUNTAINS AROUND COOKE CITY CAN
EXPECT AROUND 1-3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BRING PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR STRONG
FOOTHILLS GAP WINDS FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS LIVINGSTON AND NYE. AN
INCREASED 700 MB FLOW AND FOOTHILLS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
30-50% CHANCES FOR A WIND GUST OVER 50 MPH. THE US-191 CORRIDOR,
WHICH RELIES MORE HEAVILY ON STRONG 700 MB WINDS, WILL NOT SEE
WINDS THIS STRONG AS 700 MB WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE
30S KTS. THE CHANCE FOR A WIND GUST OVER 50 MPH FOR THESE
LOCATIONS REMAINS UNDER 20%.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES
BEING 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. THIS EQUATES TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S F. SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN WITH
PERSISTENT TROUGHING TO OUR WEST. THIS CREATES MUCH MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES AND THE OVERALL FORECAST. ENSEMBLE
SYSTEMS INDICATE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW WHAT THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS COULD
LOOK LIKE WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE WEST EJECTING WAVES
OVER THE PLAINS. EXACTLY HOW AND WHEN THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL
DEVELOPE IS UNCERTAIN. TORGERSON
AVIATION
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR AREAS
WITH SNOW COVER (K3HT, KMLS, KBHK) TONIGHT. FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. MATOS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 026/054 028/054 030/054 033/053 030/057 033/046 026/045
00/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 21/B 24/W 22/J
LVM 026/050 027/049 030/050 034/051 032/052 031/045 024/042
00/U 00/B 01/E 12/W 22/W 45/J 33/J
HDN 023/055 022/055 026/056 029/055 028/058 030/049 024/046
00/U 00/U 00/B 11/E 21/B 25/W 33/J
MLS 022/049 024/050 025/051 028/050 028/053 029/043 022/038
00/U 00/U 00/B 01/E 11/B 14/W 32/J
4BQ 024/053 027/054 027/054 029/053 029/058 033/050 024/044
00/U 00/U 00/B 00/E 00/U 13/W 32/J
BHK 021/048 023/050 024/051 026/050 027/052 028/044 019/035
00/U 00/U 00/B 01/E 11/B 14/W 43/J
SHR 023/053 024/052 023/053 026/053 027/057 029/048 021/044
00/U 00/U 00/B 00/E 11/U 25/W 33/J
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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