146
FXUS65 KBYZ 021225
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
625 AM MDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE, MAINLY OVER FAR EASTERN
MONTANA.
- AFTER A BREAK ON WEDNESDAY, THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM RETURNS
THURSDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE, MAINLY OVER
EASTERN MONTANA.
- GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...REACHING MID 80S TO LOWER 90S BY SATURDAY.
UPDATE
PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA THIS
MORNING. WITH THE SUN COMING UP, LOOK FOR THIS FOG TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO (BY 8AM). OTHERWISE, THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA TODAY. FOR MORE
INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL, SEE THE DISCUSSION BELOW. ARENDS
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)...
UPPER LOW ALONG THE MT/SASKATCHEWAN BORDER CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
OUR REGIONAL WEATHER PATTERN PLACING CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BOTTOM OF
THE FLOW THROUGH SOUTHERN ID AND INTO NORTHERN WY AND SOUTHERN MT
OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO FUEL SOME CONVECTION AT THIS TIME...WHILE A
COOLER NORTHERLY PUSH OF AIR HAS ENTERED OUR WESTERN ZONES TO
BATTLE THE MOIST WARMER SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES.
THE ASSOCIATED CONVERGENT AREA IN OUR EAST SEEMS TO BE THE FOCUS
OF SOME CONTINUAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BRIEFLY TURN STRONGER DUE TO
THE EFFECTIVE SHEAR (50 KTS). THIS ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE
DAKOTAS.
FOR TODAY, ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL PUSH SOME
MOISTURE AND LIGHT SHOWERS INTO OUR CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AS THE CORE UPPER LOW DRIFTS EAST. IN
THE MEANTIME, STRONGER CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG THE MT/DAKOTA
BORDERS AS INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE SHEAR (40-50 KTS) PROVIDE THE
INGREDIENTS FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS (1+" HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND). HOWEVER, THE BEST ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE
STATELINE IN THE DAKOTAS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER COULD
LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
EASTERN MT AS SHORTWAVE FORCING AFFECTS THE REGION.
MAIN CORE UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO SE SASKATCHEWAN WEDNESDAY PLACING
DEEPER DOWNSLOPE (WESTERLY) FLOW OVER OUR AREA. SO THIS LOOKS TO
LIMIT MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION ASIDE FROM A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY BRINGING A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS OUR CWA ONCE AGAIN.
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN PLACE AS COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS. LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP
FRIDAY MOSTLY DRY. HOWEVER, AS THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NW, WE SHOULD SEE MID LEVEL FLOW BACK OT THE SOUTHWEST
OVER OUR REGION AND INDUCE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST MOISTURE
INTO OUR REGION. ANY ENERGY EJECTING ACROSS OUR AREA FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH MAY PRODUCE A THREAT OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AT SOME
POINT THIS WEEKEND. DETAILS AND TIMING ARE STILL UNCERTAIN FOR
NOW.
TEMPERATURES INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE REST OF WEEK WITH 70S
THROUGH THURSDAY REACHING INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S BY SATURDAY.
BT
AVIATION
THE PATCHY FOG IMPACTING PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA THIS MORNING
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z. ONCE THIS OCCURS, VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER FAR EASTERN MONTANA.
WITH THIS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
(MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER) WITH
HEAVY RAIN, ERRATIC WINDS, AND HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. WHILE
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE LOCAL
TAF LOCATIONS, ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES. AS THESE SHOWERS MOVE EAST, A
WEAK THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. ARENDS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 073 048/076 052/079 052/085 056/095 057/079 052/083
2/W 20/U 04/T 20/U 00/U 12/T 21/B
LVM 069 041/078 046/075 045/084 048/089 047/074 042/079
2/W 20/U 17/T 20/U 01/N 14/T 32/T
HDN 075 045/077 050/081 050/084 055/095 055/079 050/084
1/B 20/B 14/T 41/U 00/U 12/T 21/B
MLS 074 048/074 048/080 052/082 057/093 060/081 054/082
2/U 30/B 04/T 61/U 00/U 12/T 31/B
4BQ 076 049/074 050/080 052/081 056/093 060/081 054/082
1/U 21/B 17/T 51/U 00/U 10/B 31/B
BHK 075 046/073 045/077 049/079 052/088 058/082 052/080
3/W 31/B 15/T 62/T 10/N 11/B 41/B
SHR 076 043/075 045/078 046/081 049/093 052/079 046/081
1/U 21/U 15/T 31/U 00/U 02/T 32/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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