102
FXUS65 KBYZ 082117
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
217 PM MST THU DEC 8 2022
DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
ACCORDING TO LOCAL GUIDANCE, TONIGHT HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY STRENGTH WINDS IN THE GAP AREAS WITH A 40 PERCENT CHANCE
AT KLVM. HOWEVER, NAEFS 700 MB WINDS WERE BELOW 40 KT AND FROM AN
UNFAVORABLE DIRECTION OF WSW. ALSO NOTED THAT THE GFS SURFACE
GRADIENT WAS RUNNING SEVERAL MB TOO STRONG LATE THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, GRADIENT LOOKED BETTER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS
WERE PICKING UP AT KLVM. WILL ISSUE ADVISORY FOR GAP AREAS FOR
TONIGHT. NOT SEEING ANY BLOWING SNOW ON WEBCAMS TODAY AND SNOW
DEPTHS LOOKED LIKE THEY WERE BELOW AN INCH. THUS WILL REMOVE
MENTION OF THE BLOWING SNOW IN THE WINDY AREAS TONIGHT. WILL HAVE
CHILLY NIGHTS IN THE TEENS AND HIGHS JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.
SREF AND OTHER MODELS SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA
ON FRIDAY. THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE E FRI. NIGHT AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE NBM SHOWED A 60 PERCENT CHANCE
OF GREATER THAN AN INCH OF SNOW OVER THE SW MOUNTAINS FROM 12Z
FRI.-12Z SATURDAY. TONIGHT WILL BE DRY, AND SNOW WILL BE LIKELY IN
THE SW MOUNTAINS FRI. AFTERNOON WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE CRAZY
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. SNOW CHANCES DECREASE FRI.
EVENING. DID INCLUDE A 20 PERCENT CHANCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE NE
BIGHORNS FRI. EVENING BASED ON GFS TIME-HEIGHTS. THE SNOW SHOULD
BE DONE AFTER 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. ARTHUR
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY QUIET AND MILD. SOME SHORTWAVE
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN, WHICH COULD MAKE THE WINDS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS GUSTIER AGAIN, BUT LOCAL PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWS A
LOW PROBABILITY (<30%) OF REACHING 58 MPH. ALSO, LOOKING AT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM IDAHO FALLS TO LEWISTOWN, THE GRADIENT
GENERALLY LOOKS TO SUPPORT BREEZY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE IN THE 30S FOR HIGHS AND UPPER TEENS FOR LOW.
FOR REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED THE FORECAST STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM, WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
FOR SOUTHEAST MONTANA. THE MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE LOW COMING ON
SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY, WHICH COULD START BRINGING
SNOW TO THE WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SNOW WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. ALSO, AS LOW STARTS
TO WRAP UP AS IT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WINDS IN THE
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST START TO INCREASE, RAISING THE CHANCE
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS, AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS ARE IN THE 6 TO 8
INCH RANGE, WHILE AREAS FROM BILLINGS EASTWARDS HAVE 8 TO 12 WITH
SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS. HOWEVER, THE NBM 1 IN 10 CHANCE
HAS AMOUNTS EAST OF BILLINGS CLOSER TO 18 TO 24 INCHES. WHILE THIS
A VERY UNLIKELY SCENARIO, THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IS
THERE. THE SNOW EFFICIENCY SHOULD BE HIGH WAS THE SNOW GROWTH
ZONE IS DEEP, WITH PLENTY OF LIFT, IN ADDITIONS TO UPSLOPE FLOW
THAT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE AMOUNTS. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THE
TRACK TO CHANGE, BUT GIVEN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS, CONFIDENCE
IS INCREASING. THE NBM PROBABILITY FOR A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW FROM
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS NOW BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT. REIMER
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 35-45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AROUND KLVM AND K6S0 TODAY. ARCHER
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 016/034 013/033 019/035 017/022 014/021 014/024 012/021
01/E 00/B 01/E 58/S 75/S 44/S 32/S
LVM 020/034 015/038 024/039 017/023 011/023 012/026 010/026
02/S 11/N 14/S 87/S 42/S 22/S 22/S
HDN 005/032 006/032 010/032 011/021 011/019 011/022 007/020
00/E 00/B 01/E 39/S 87/S 65/S 43/S
MLS 003/024 006/029 008/023 009/021 013/020 012/019 009/016
00/B 00/U 00/B 16/S 88/S 77/S 42/S
4BQ 011/033 013/036 016/035 013/023 012/018 012/020 009/019
00/B 00/U 00/B 05/S 88/S 87/S 42/S
BHK 010/031 009/031 014/030 011/023 014/022 011/018 007/016
00/B 00/U 00/B 03/S 89/S 87/S 42/S
SHR 010/034 010/035 018/039 013/023 009/020 010/023 007/022
00/E 00/B 00/B 29/S 98/S 66/S 43/S
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR ZONES
65-66.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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