079
FXUS65 KBYZ 270657
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1257 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TODAY. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG LOCAL WINDS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
- THE PATTERN REMAINS RELATIVELY ACTIVE THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION EACH DAY AND COOLING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
NEXT 7 DAYS (THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
TODAY IS FORECAST TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF OUR WARM STRETCH WITH
HIGHS ACROSS THE CWA IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. LUCKILY FOR THOSE
TIRED OF THE HEAT, TEMPERATURES WILL START TO COOL DOWN FRIDAY.
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TOPPING 90 F IN THE AFTERNOON COMBINED
WITH WIDESPREAD RH IN THE TEENS IS LIKELY ACROSS ALL LOCATIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT
IN DEPICTING SOME BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE OTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN FOR FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG ERRATIC WIND GUSTS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION, HOWEVER WITH PWAT VALUES
WILL BE AROUND 1" SO DRY THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE HARD TO COME BY.
THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE KICKED OFF
BY A VORT MAX RIDING BETWEEN A STRONGER LOW TO THE NW AND THE
PESKY RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH OF US. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL INITIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTERAL
MONTANA SHORTLY AFTER THE NOON HOUR AND THEN PUSH OFF TO THE EAST.
DUE TO THE "DIRTY" NATURE OF THE ENERGY PUSHING THROUGH THERE
WILL BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS THAT KICK OFF OF THE TERRAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING. IN TERMS OF OTHER INGREDIENTS FOR THE
STORMS, THE PWAT VALUES WERE ALREADY MENTIONED TO BE NEAR 1"
WHICH IS PLENTY SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS IN THIS REGION. ML AND SB
CAPE VALUES WILL BE THE BARE MINIMUM WITH WIDESPREAD VALUES
STAYING UNDER 1000 J/KG, WHILE ISOLATED POCKETS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE. SHEAR WILL BE THE SAME AS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS WITH A LARGE AREA OF 30 KTS OF BULK SHEER AND
LOCALIZED HIGHER VALUES. SO THIS IS A CLEAR HIGH SHEAR AND LOW
CAPE EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CLASSIC INVERTED-V TYPE
SOUNDING WITH A LOT OF D-CAPE MEANING THAT WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS
LOOK LIKELY.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, THAT LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL
BE PUSHED INLAND AND THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THIS SETUP
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY ALSO BRING SOME WINDS DUE TO THE PROGRESSION
AND ORIENTATION OF THE LOW, HOWEVER THE MODELED LOW LEVEL SURFACE
WINDS ARE NOT TOO STRONG AS OF NOW. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THIS
FEATURE HAS LAGGED SOME IN RECENT MODEL RUNS MAKING THIS MORE OF A
SUNDAY EVENT AND LESS OF A SATURDAY EVENT. THE ARRIVAL TIME WILL
MATTER QUITE A BIT THOUGH AS SOME MODELS SHOW A GOOD AREA OF
DIFFLUENCE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW WHICH COULD KICK OFF SOME DECENT
THUNDERSTORMS IF THIS ARRIVES DURING PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. AFTER
THIS WEEKEND'S LOW, THE LONG RANGE MODELS KEEP THE PATTERN FAIRLY
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. WMR
AVIATION
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING BEFORE
12Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTH CENTRAL MT AND TRACKING EAST. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE
BEEN INTRODUCED FOR KLVM, KBIL AND KSHR FOR LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
MID EVENING HOURS. STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG 35 TO NEAR
50KT GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE KLVM VICINITY.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED AT TIMES DUE TO WILDFIRE
SMOKE. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 096 064/089 062/083 058/079 053/081 056/087 058/086
3/W 44/W 24/T 44/T 11/U 11/B 10/U
LVM 092 053/083 050/077 045/074 040/078 044/082 046/079
4/T 55/T 78/T 86/T 21/U 12/T 21/U
HDN 097 062/091 059/086 054/083 048/084 051/089 053/089
1/B 33/T 32/T 34/T 11/U 10/B 10/U
MLS 096 068/093 065/086 059/083 052/082 055/088 058/086
0/U 12/W 33/T 35/T 21/U 10/B 10/U
4BQ 094 067/092 064/087 059/085 054/084 056/089 058/088
0/B 14/W 33/T 33/T 22/W 11/B 10/U
BHK 093 061/094 061/088 054/085 048/083 050/088 053/088
0/U 22/W 24/T 45/T 31/U 11/B 10/U
SHR 094 059/089 056/083 052/081 047/082 050/086 051/086
0/B 25/T 36/T 32/T 11/U 11/B 10/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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