229
FXUS65 KBYZ 260702
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
102 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK. MOUNTAIN SNOWMELT WILL INCREASE
RIVER FLOWS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
- DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. BEST CHANCES ARE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL/WESTERN MONTANA
AND NORTH-CENTRAL/WESTERN WYOMING.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (WIND GUSTS) AND MODERATE RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES, BUT CHANCES HAVE DECREASED AS BIT. STAY
UP TO DATE WITH THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH MONDAY...
TODAY WILL SEE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 90S F. LOCATIONS ALONG THE YELLOWSTONE
RIVER IN ROSEBUD AND CUSTER COUNTIES HAVE A 20-40% CHANCE OF
GETTING A HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER 100 F. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
20-30 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE SO MANY ARE LIKELY NOT ACCLIMATED TO
THE HEAT. STAY INDOORS AND HYDRATED IF YOU ARE SENSITIVE TO HOT
TEMPERATURES.
A PERSISTENT PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST WILL KEEP MONTANA IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION. ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS INDICATE THAT THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
ABOVE AVERAGE PWATS IN THE 100-175% OF NORMAL RANGE FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE. PWATS AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 1 INCH
WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND HIGH PWAT VALUES ARE A GOOD SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA, HOWEVER, THERE ARE ASPECTS OF THIS PARTICULAR
PATTERN THAT WILL ACT TO INHIBIT CONVECTIVE AND PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL. THE FIRST IS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIONED
FAR TO THE WEST KEEPING A PERSISTENT 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE
REGION LIMITING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THE SECOND IS MINIMAL SHEER
(<30 KTS) FOR MOST OF THE WEEK AND THE THIRD IS THAT MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA KEEPING US DRY SLOTTED WITH MINIMAL FORCING. THESE FACTORS
WILL NOT PREVENT CONVECTION BUT RATHER LOWER THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND PARTICULARLY SEVERE CONVECTION.
DUE TO THESE FACTORS, THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE WARM AND
MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOCATIONS EAST OF BILLINGS
SEEING DAILY WIND GUSTS IN THE 30S AND 40S MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S F ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK. GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MOST DAYS THIS WEEK. A FEW SEVERE
STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE BEST CHANCE BEING WEST OF
BILLINGS. FIRE IS GENERALLY NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME DUE TO
GREEN UP.
ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS ARE INCREASINGLY POINTING TO THIS WEEKEND AS THE
BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY THESE SYSTEMS INDICATING THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH BRINGING BETTER
FORCING TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. TORGERSON
AVIATION
06Z DISCUSSION...OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
MT LATE TUESDAY MORNING, MOVING SOUTH TO NORTH. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE AT KLVM (35%) FROM 18-03Z AND AT
KBIL (30%) FROM 21-04Z. KSHR AND KMLS HAVE AROUND A 10-15% CHANCE
FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THIS SAME TIME FRAME. MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY STORM WILL BE GUSTY WINDS 35-50 KTS AND BRIEF
MODERATE RAIN. BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BEGIN LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA, GUSTING 20-30KTS AT
TIMES. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 094 060/091 061/095 062/095 061/079 054/079 052/077
1/B 21/B 00/U 01/U 26/T 53/T 33/T
LVM 084 050/084 052/089 053/088 050/069 044/072 043/072
6/T 54/T 11/U 22/T 37/T 54/T 23/T
HDN 096 060/092 062/095 061/095 058/082 051/080 050/079
1/B 11/B 00/B 01/U 25/T 52/T 33/T
MLS 098 067/094 067/094 066/094 063/085 055/080 054/079
0/N 10/N 00/N 00/B 24/T 43/T 42/W
4BQ 095 066/090 064/090 063/091 061/084 054/080 053/078
0/B 01/N 00/N 01/U 24/T 33/T 33/T
BHK 095 061/091 061/090 061/089 058/084 053/080 053/079
0/N 00/N 00/N 00/N 15/T 33/T 32/W
SHR 090 052/086 053/089 052/090 052/078 044/077 044/076
1/N 22/T 01/B 02/T 26/T 45/T 35/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page