609
FXUS65 KBYZ 081853
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
1253 PM MDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO
35 MPH.
- LOW CHANCE (20-40%) FOR PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MID-WEEK. OCCASIONALLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- A PATTERN CHANGE TO COOLER WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION RETURNS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- FIRST FROST THIS WEEKEND?
DISCUSSION
THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON UNDER AN UPPER LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING. WITH
THIS TROUGH, SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-40% CHANCE) MAY MOVE WEST TO
EAST TODAY, BEGINNING OVER THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON AND EXITING
ACROSS THE DAKOTA BORDER LATE THIS EVENING. OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS
OF THE MOUNTAINS, THIS PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS SNOW THIS
EVENING.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TREND WARMER AND DRIER WITH CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS, STRONGEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WEST
OF BILLINGS. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO LOW 90S. THE COMBINATION OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES,
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BRING
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THESE DAYS,
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TAKE CARE NOT
TO CAUSE A SPARK!
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND HAS MORE UNCERTAINTY AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES. MODELS STILL DISAGREE ON THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY
OF THIS SYSTEM. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS A TREND TOWARDS COOLER AND
WETTER WEATHER TO END THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, HIGHS LOOK TO DECREASE
FROM MOSTLY 70S FRIDAY TO MID 50S TO MID 60S BY SUNDAY. WITH THESE
FALLING TEMPERATURES, SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE THEIR FIRST FROST (36
F) OVER THE WEEKEND! THE BEST CHANCE IS CURRENTLY MONDAY MORNING,
RANGING FROM 40-60% OVER THE FOOTHILLS TO 10-40% OVER THE PLAINS.
FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS, THERE IS ALSO A 5-20% CHANCE
FOR A FREEZE (32 F) MONDAY MORNING. MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY! ARCHER
AVIATION
18Z DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST SITES
THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING. KSHR WILL SEE LOWER WIND SPEEDS OUT OF
THE NORTH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KBIL BETWEEN 22Z AND 01Z THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD PRODUCE GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. BETWEEN 05Z AND 15Z
TONIGHT AREAS OF LLWS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA, WITH THE GREATEST CONCERN NEAR KMLS/KBHK. WS WAS NOT
INCLUDED IN ANY TAF DUE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SHEER REMAINING
UNDER 30 KTS. WEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GUST OVER 20 KTS AGAIN
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL REGION-WIDE
FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWER/STORM. WMR
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 048/080 053/087 055/071 044/063 044/059 042/067 043/070
30/U 00/U 02/W 11/E 55/W 51/B 01/U
LVM 040/078 046/085 048/072 038/062 036/058 034/067 036/071
00/N 00/N 03/T 11/N 66/T 51/B 11/U
HDN 044/081 045/090 048/074 040/067 042/063 039/069 038/074
30/U 00/U 02/W 21/B 55/T 52/W 11/U
MLS 049/079 049/088 053/073 043/065 043/064 043/066 041/072
20/U 00/U 01/B 21/B 55/T 52/W 10/U
4BQ 049/079 050/089 055/078 044/068 046/067 044/067 041/075
20/U 00/U 00/U 20/B 56/W 62/W 10/U
BHK 045/079 046/089 050/078 039/067 038/064 039/065 036/074
20/U 00/U 00/N 21/B 55/T 63/W 10/U
SHR 043/077 044/088 052/077 039/067 040/066 037/067 037/073
20/U 00/U 02/W 21/B 55/W 41/U 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING FOR ZONES 123-124-127.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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