048
FXUS65 KBYZ 230718
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
118 AM MDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS 55-65 MPH THE MAIN
THREAT. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
- DRIER WITH SEASONAL TEMPS NEXT WEEK WITH JUST AN OCCASIONAL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
THROUGH SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FACTOR IN THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TODAY WILL
SEE 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE, 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES CREATE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A RISK LEVEL
2 OF 5 FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH AND HAIL GREATER
THAN 1 INCH. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-40%) INCREASE ALONG THE
WESTERN FOOTHILLS AROUND 12 PM AND MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AREAS WEST OF BILLINGS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ON SUNDAY AS PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS BRING
WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 15-30 MPH, WITH HUMIDITY DOWN NEAR 20
PERCENT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA MONDAY WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DECREASING TEMPERATURES FROM
THE LOW TO MID 90S F ON SUNDAY TO THE 80S F MONDAY. DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW TWENTIES.
BREEZY WINDS OF 20-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS
AND FROM NORTHERN ROSEBUD COUNTY SOUTHEAST TO CARTER COUNTY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE CONCERN. COOLER
CONDITIONS IN THE 80S F CONTINUE TUESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY
BRINGING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETURNING. THIS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME, MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WIN KEEPING WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER OUR REGION, AND COOLER
CONDITIONS TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN US IS EXPECTED TO BRING IN MONSOONAL HIGH BASED
MOISTURE BRINGING DAILY 10-40% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE HIGH 80S AND LOW 90S
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TORGERSON
AVIATION
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT, DIMINISHING BY 10Z. EXPECT VFR TO LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION WITH LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS TO
40KTS. AFTER A QUIET MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS
AROUND 19Z AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE REGION INTO THE EVENING.
STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 50KTS MPH ARE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS
ACTIVITY, PARTICULARLY AT KLVM AND KBIL FROM 22Z TO 02Z, AND AT
KMLS BETWEEN 02Z AND 05Z. WILDFIRE SMOKE MAY AFFECT SLANT RANGE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES. BT
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 095 062/088 060/085 061/090 063/093 062/091 062/089
4/T 20/U 00/U 00/B 21/B 20/B 11/B
LVM 089 050/086 049/085 051/088 052/089 051/087 051/086
5/T 10/U 01/U 11/B 41/B 31/U 22/W
HDN 097 059/088 055/087 056/092 060/094 059/092 058/090
2/T 30/U 00/U 00/B 11/B 20/B 11/B
MLS 096 064/087 057/084 056/087 060/093 062/091 061/090
0/B 30/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 21/B 21/U
4BQ 095 065/087 058/085 057/088 061/092 062/091 061/090
1/U 20/U 00/U 00/U 11/B 21/B 21/U
BHK 093 059/088 053/085 050/086 053/090 056/090 055/090
2/T 20/U 00/U 00/U 01/B 23/T 22/W
SHR 092 057/086 053/084 052/087 055/090 055/089 055/088
3/T 20/B 02/T 12/T 11/B 11/B 11/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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