741  
FXUS65 KBYZ 242047  
AFDBYZ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT  
247 PM MDT WED JUL 24 2024  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...  
 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PRODUCE VERY HOT CONDITIONS THRU  
THURSDAY. FOR TODAY, WE'VE ALREADY SEEN 100F HIT AT LIVINGSTON,  
SHERIDAN, MILES CITY, HARDIN & BAKER. NO DOUBT WE WILL SEE SOME  
~105F HIGHS BEFORE THE DAY IS THROUGH. AFTER A VERY WARM NIGHT  
TONIGHT, THERMAL TROF AND AXIS OF HIGHEST TEMPS WILL SHIFT TO THE  
EAST HALF OF OUR CWA THURSDAY. SOME LOWER VALLEYS IN OUR EAST  
COULD PUSH 110F TOMORROW. COLD FRONT ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT  
SIGNALING THE END OF THIS HOT SPELL.  
 
HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL  
OF OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THURSDAY AND WILL MAKE NO CHANGES.  
WE MUST STRESS THAT TONIGHT WILL BE UNCOMFORTABLY WARM AND OFFER  
LITTLE RELIEF. PLEASE PROTECT YOURSELF AND OTHERS FROM THE HEAT!  
 
HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY TO A RED FLAG  
WARNING. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPS, LOW RHS (8-18%), INCREASING  
PRE-FRONTAL WINDS (GUST 25-35 MPH), SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS  
(20-30% CHANCE) AND A WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL  
ALL BE PROBLEMATIC FOR ANY EXISTING FIRES. GIVEN THE UPTICK IN  
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY, THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEW FIRE  
STARTS. PLEASE TAKE CARE TO NOT SPARK A FIRE!  
 
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CRESTING THE RIDGE AND APPROACHING FROM SOUTH  
CENTRAL MT IS STARTING TO PRODUCE CUMULUS OVER OUR SW MOUNTAINS.  
THERE IS A LITTLE LIGHTNING ALONG AN AXIS FROM HELENA TO BUTTE AND  
DILLON, AND THIS SHOULD REACH OUR WEST BY LATE AFTERNOON. STORMS  
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED BUT MAY PRODUCE ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS AT  
PLACES LIKE LIVINGSTON & HARLOWTON...W/ OUTFLOW PERHAPS REACHING  
BILLINGS IN THE EVENING. THE MUCH GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION  
IS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WE BEGIN TO SEE HEIGHT FALLS  
ASSOCIATED WITH A PACIFIC TROF, AND INCREASING MOISTURE (PWATS  
INCREASE TO 1+ INCHES). WITH SUCH HOT TEMPS AND A DEEPLY MIXED  
BOUNDARY LAYER, STRONG/ERRATIC WINDS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY, ALONG  
WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN...IN OTHER WORDS A RISK OF WET  
MICROBURSTS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND IS OVER THE WEST  
HALF OF OUR CWA, BUT WE SHOULD SEE WEAKER CONVECTION TRACK ACROSS  
OUR EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT FINALLY MOVES THRU  
THE REGION.  
 
LET'S ADDRESS TEMPS A BIT MORE. WE ARE GOING TO GET CLOSE TO  
ALL-TIME RECORDS AND THESE ARE SUMMARIZED BELOW. SMOKE COVER HAS  
LESSENED AND IT APPEARS IT WON'T BE A SIGNIFICANT INHIBITOR.  
HOWEVER, LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM THIS EVENING MAY LINGER  
TOMORROW. EVEN THOUGH THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT ARRIVE TIL THURSDAY  
NIGHT, WE COULD SEE EFFECTS FROM CLOUD COVER, AS GUIDANCE IS  
SUGGESTING, EVEN BEFORE THE ONSET OF CONVECTION. WILL BE  
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW IT TURNS OUT. IN ITS PERIOD OF RECORD,  
BILLINGS HAS NOT SEEN A TEMP OVER 98F ON JULY 25TH. IT SHOULD  
HAPPEN TOMORROW, BUT CANNOT QUITE GUARANTEE IT.  
 
SITE THURS FCST ALL-TIME RECORD  
SHERIDAN 105 107 (DONE 4 TIMES, MOST RECENTLY IN 2021)  
MILES CITY 106 111 (6/26/2012)  
BAKER 108 108 (DONE 3 TIMES, MOST RECENTLY IN 2018)  
BILLINGS 103 108 (7/14/2002)  
 
STAY COOL, FOLKS!  
 
JKL  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...  
 
FRIDAY MORNING, AN UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LOW OVER  
CENTRAL AB/SK WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A  
RESULT OF THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH  
MORE SEASONABLE, IN THE 80S TO 90F. A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IS SET  
TO BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION, FRIDAY EVENING  
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, 15-70% (GREATEST CHANCE IN  
THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTHS, BIGHORNS, AND GALLATIN MOUNTAINS).  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY HIGH, ALTHOUGH  
WITH PWATS UP TO AN INCH, A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD  
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL. THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH STORMS  
WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS.  
 
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A FEW WEAK  
DISTURBANCES PASSING THROUGH. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION  
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE 20-60%, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE  
BEING IN THE MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL  
BE NEAR NORMALS, 80S TO LOW 90SF.  
 
MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN REBUILDING  
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SUBSEQUENTLY, HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES  
WILL INCREASE, BRINGING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 90SF. THE NBM 90TH  
PERCENTILE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES SHOWS VALUES IN THE LOW 100SF ON  
TUESDAY. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW FOR  
MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH THE MOUNTAINS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE (UP TO  
20%) FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION.  
 
MATOS  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
 
LOOK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THRU THE EVENING WEST OF KBIL.  
THERE IS A LOW (10%) PROBABILITY OF A TS AT KLVM. ANY STORMS WILL  
PRODUCE ERRATIC SURFACE WINDS. A GREATER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS  
WILL IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON & EVENING.  
TOMORROW'S CONVECTION WILL BEGIN A BIT EARLIER, 19-20Z, AND WILL  
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALIZED  
HEAVY RAIN.  
 
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL  
CONTINUE TO REDUCE SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY.  
 
JKL  
 

 
   
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
 
 
THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE WED  
-----------------------------------------------------------  
BIL 074/103 064/089 061/090 063/090 061/094 061/097 061/093  
13/T 42/W 11/B 32/W 10/U 00/U 10/U  
LVM 062/098 054/089 050/087 053/087 051/091 053/092 052/090  
34/T 43/T 23/W 43/T 11/U 11/N 11/U  
HDN 068/105 063/091 057/091 058/090 055/095 057/098 057/093  
02/T 41/B 21/B 32/W 10/U 00/U 10/U  
MLS 076/106 070/089 062/092 064/088 061/093 062/097 064/092  
01/G 41/B 21/U 33/T 10/U 00/U 10/U  
4BQ 072/108 071/091 065/093 064/089 061/095 063/099 064/094  
01/G 21/B 21/U 33/T 11/U 00/U 10/U  
BHK 069/108 067/090 061/092 060/088 058/095 061/098 061/094  
01/N 21/B 22/W 44/T 11/U 11/U 11/U  
SHR 063/105 063/091 056/089 055/086 054/094 057/097 057/093  
02/T 33/T 22/T 32/T 10/U 00/U 00/U  
 

 
   
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MT...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR  
ZONES 29>33-36-37-57-58-138-139-169-170-173-235.  
HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR ZONES  
34-42-56-63-65-66-141-172-228.  
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR  
ZONE 117.  
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM MDT THURSDAY  
FOR ZONES 123>133.  
WY...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THURSDAY FOR  
ZONE 199.  
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 11 PM MDT THURSDAY  
FOR ZONES 274-284.  
 

 
 

 
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