459
FXUS65 KBYZ 011118
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
518 AM MDT WED JUL 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
- THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY; STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE.
- FOR THE 4TH OF JULY (SATURDAY), TEMPS IN THE 80S F, AND A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST.
- WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES BECOMING ABOVE
NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE DEFINED BY 500 MB TROUGHING TO THE
WEST WEAKENING AND LIFTING BRINGING MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
THROUGH THE REGION. PWAT VALUES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 100-120% OF NORMAL RANGE WITH WEAK COLD FRONTS AND THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROVIDING FORCING. TODAYS SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVEL
THROUGH CENTRAL MONTANA BRINGING A LEVEL 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF BILLINGS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THURSDAYS
AND FRIDAYS SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT EASTERN MONTANA WITH A RISK
LEVEL 1 OF 5 FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF BILLINGS THURSDAY BECOMING
A LEVEL 2 OF 5 NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER.
OVER THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT, MOST MODELS ARE
INDICATING A SWITCH TO MORE ZONAL FLOW AND EVENTUALLY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING. THIS IS EXPECTED TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO A
MINIMUM AND BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES. STARTING SUNDAY, MOST OF
THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S F. TEMPERATURES TO START THE
WORK WEEK WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THIS RANGE OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY.
MODELS ARE ALSO INDICATING THAT NEXT MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER, THERE
ARE LITTLE INDICATIONS THAT THIS WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION,
LIKELY DUE TO A LACK OF FORCING. TORGERSON
AVIATION
11Z DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL TRAVERSE THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 14Z, BUT NO FLIGHT
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. AROUND 19Z WILL SEE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS, DRIFTING
EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING. LOCAL MVFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER CELLS, BUT THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50KTS
DUE TO THE HIGH BASED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION. CURRENTLY HAVE
PROB30 TSTM CHANCES IN THE TAFS FOR KLVM AND KBIL. CHAMBERS
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 083 056/084 057/086 057/088 061/092 065/093 065/092
1/U 42/B 33/T 20/U 00/U 11/B 11/B
LVM 077 046/079 049/081 048/085 053/090 056/090 056/088
5/T 63/T 33/T 50/U 00/U 11/U 22/T
HDN 086 055/087 056/089 056/089 059/094 063/096 064/095
1/U 21/B 33/T 20/U 00/U 01/U 21/B
MLS 085 059/089 059/088 057/088 061/095 065/096 066/095
0/U 10/B 25/T 50/U 00/U 11/B 21/B
4BQ 085 059/088 059/088 058/088 060/095 065/095 065/095
1/U 12/B 23/T 51/U 10/U 11/U 21/U
BHK 083 057/087 055/086 054/086 057/092 062/093 062/093
1/U 14/T 24/T 51/U 11/U 12/T 22/T
SHR 082 052/084 053/085 052/086 055/092 059/093 060/092
1/U 13/T 43/T 21/U 01/U 02/T 12/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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