015
FXUS65 KBYZ 201023
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
323 AM MST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW ZERO THIS
MORNING.
- WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING; EXPECT
LOCALIZED SQUALLS WITH POOR VISIBILITY AND BRIEF SNOW
ACCUMULATION.
- WARMER BUT TEMPS REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THEN
MUCH WARMER STARTING MONDAY.
- WARM AND WINDY PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
OTHER THAN SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS, THE CWA IS CURRENTLY MOSTLY
CLEAR...THOUGH LIGHT SNOW STILL BEING REPORTED AT BAKER. SATELLITE
IMAGERY NOT SHOWING ANY FOG YET, BUT AS DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE
2-3F AND WINDS ARE LIGHT, CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FOG THRU THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. LOOKING UPSTREAM, THERE IS A DISTINCT
SHORTWAVE OVER FAR WESTERN MT AND ID. 500MB TEMPS ARE -36C ALONG
THE TROF AXIS AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE QUITE STEEP (AS
CONFIRMED BY THE 06Z RAOB AT GREAT FALLS). SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVER OUR WEST THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE INTERESTING PER
INSTABILITY THROUGH THE DGZ. HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING ELEVATED SNOW
SQUALL PARAMETERS BEGINNING ~20Z IN OUR WEST. AS SURFACE TEMPS
RISE TO THE UPPER 20S OR LOWER 30S THERE MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE
SURFACE-BASED CAPE. LOWER ELEVATION SNOWFALL WILL BE LOCALIZED AT
LESS THAN AN INCH, WHILE CRAZY AND BEARTOOTH-ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS
SEE 1-3" ON W-NW ASPECTS. SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD
EASTWARD AND GRADUALLY BECOME LESS INTENSE IN THE EVENING. HAVE
RAISED SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE AND QPF/SNOW A BIT, PER THE INCREASING
CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. JKL
DISCUSSION
THROUGH THURSDAY...
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY A TRAILING VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MT REACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES BY 15-18Z.
BEHIND THE FROPA CAMS ARE DEPICTING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THAT
MAY BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE WEST OF BILLINGS BETWEEN 18-02Z. THE
HREF UPPER PERCENTILES (75-90%) SHOW SBCAPE VALUES OF 50-100 J/KG
FOR LOCATIONS SUCH AS HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ALSO SHOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 6-8 C/KM DURING THIS SAME
TIMEFRAME. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT SNOW SQUALLS WILL OCCUR,
HOWEVER, CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WHICH COULD SHARPLY AND RAPIDLY
REDUCE VISIBILITY MAY OCCUR. PEOPLE TRAVELING ALONG ROADS SUCH AS
I-90, US-12, AND US-191 SHOULD PREPARE FOR POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE
(CENTRAL AND EAST ZONES) LIGHT SNOW / FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATION IS FORECAST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LOCATIONS THAT SEE A PARTICULAR STRONG CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWER IN THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, RISING HEIGHTS AHEAD OF A BUILDING
RIDGE WILL CHANGE THE OVERALL REGIME THAT WE BRIEFLY FOUND
OURSELVES UNDER. WHILE COLD TEMPS WILL LINGER FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND DUE TO THE FRESH SNOWPACK, THE RISING HEIGHTS
WILL, YET AGAIN, USHER IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS BY MONDAY. THE GOOD
NEWS FOR THOSE WINTER LOVERS IS THAT THESE TEMPS PROBABLY WILL NOT
BE AS WARM AS WHAT WE SAW TO START THE MONTH. TEMPERATURES APPEAR
TO BE AROUND THE UPPER 40S F FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK.
WITH THE ADVANCING RIDGE, STRONG WINDS ARE FORECAST MONDAY FOR
THE FOOTHILLS AROUND LIVINGSTON AND THE US-191 CORRIDOR. WHILE IT
IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TALK SPECIFICS, THE OVERALL SETUP APPEARS
TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG GAP WINDS IN LIVINGSTON LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AND THEN "MIX DOWN" WINDS TO GAP INTO
HARLOWTON AND BIG TIMBER DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AN IMPORTANT
PIECE OF THE PUZZLE WILL BE THE SNOWPACK. NOHRSC SNOW DEPTH
MODELING SHOWS THAT SNOW IN VALLEY AROUND LIVINGSTON AND BIG
TIMBER SHOULD BE COMPLETELY MELTED BY THE END OF THE DAY SATURDAY
WHICH WILL AID IN STRONG WINDS FOR BOTH OF THESE LOCATIONS.
LIVINGSTON DUE TO THE LOCALIZED LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE ALLOWED
TO DEVELOP, AND BIG TIMBER DUE TO THE MUCH EASIER PBL MIX-OUT
THAT CAN OCCUR DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY. UP NEAR HARLOWTON,
HOWEVER, NOHRSC MODELING STILL SHOWS LIMITED SNOW ON THE GROUND
BY MONDAY WHICH MAY LIMIT SOME OF THE ABILITY FOR THE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN. THIS MAY BE A MOOT POINT AS THE STRONGEST 700MB WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY BEING DEPICTED BY LONG RANGE MODELS TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON WHICH ALLOWS FOR SLOW TO MIX PBL TO
BE ERODED BY THAT TIME. OF COURSE, WE ARE STILL 4 DAYS OUT AND
EVERYTHING JUST DISCUSSED WILL LIKELY CHANGE BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND.
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WORK WEEK, THE DETERMINISTIC LONG RANGE MODELS
SEEM TO FAVOR UPPER LEVEL NW FLOW TO DOMINATE. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR REPEATED CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THIS COULD ALSO
KEEP OUR EASTERN ZONES COOLER THAN WHAT IS PRESENTLY PREDICTED.
STAY TUNED TO THE FORECAST IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS IN NEXT WEEK AS
CHANGES WILL LIKELY OCCUR. WMR
AVIATION
LIGHT SNOW W/ MVFR NEAR THE DAKOTAS BORDER WILL END BY 12Z.
LOCALIZED FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE (<20%) BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
IT WAS YESTERDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THRU MIDDAY.
A DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BRIEF/LOCALIZED MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED W/
THE SNOW SHOWERS, WHILE THE CRAZY AND BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA MTNS ARE
OBSCURED. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 032 014/033 009/035 021/056 037/055 032/053 031/057
3/J 30/B 00/B 00/N 14/W 42/W 11/N
LVM 031 011/040 012/040 029/054 037/049 031/047 030/050
3/J 20/B 00/B 00/N 35/W 42/J 22/W
HDN 032 011/033 008/035 016/059 033/056 030/055 026/059
0/U 31/B 00/B 00/B 14/W 43/W 21/B
MLS 023 008/024 003/029 015/051 031/050 027/049 026/054
0/U 22/J 00/B 00/B 12/W 21/B 11/U
4BQ 029 009/030 006/035 019/057 032/055 028/050 027/055
0/U 21/B 00/B 00/B 02/W 21/B 11/U
BHK 020 003/020 902/025 010/048 026/046 023/045 024/051
0/B 12/J 00/U 00/B 12/W 22/J 11/N
SHR 029 008/035 007/039 018/058 030/055 023/050 023/054
0/U 20/B 00/B 00/B 03/W 53/J 21/U
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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