373
FXUS65 KBYZ 170102
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
702 PM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- COLD FRONT BRINGS A COOL DOWN AND A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, MAINLY FOR AREAS
NORTH AND EAST OF BILLINGS.
- INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
AVIATION DISCUSSION WAS UPDATED.
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE ON STRONG WEST/NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH WIND
CONCERNS SHIFT INTO EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING ON
WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG JET
STREAK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MOVES OVER THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS 700 MB WINDS INCREASE INTO THE 40 TO 50
KT RANGE. SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA, AREAS WEST OF A BILLINGS TO RED
LODGE LINE, HAVE A 40 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING WIND
GUSTS OVER 45 MPH. WINDS WILL BE EVEN STRONGER IN THE WESTERN AREAS
SUCH AS BIG TIMBER, LIVINGSTON, AND HARLOWTON, INCLUDING THE CRAZY
MOUNTAIN, WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS
OVER 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CRAZY
MOUNTAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MONTANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS FORCING
INCREASING ON THE NOSE OF THE JET STREAK. CAPE AND SHEAR PROFILES
WILL FAVOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
LARGE HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY EDGE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AT LOCATIONS
SUCH AS MILES CITY AND BAKER.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MOST AREAS AREN'T EXPECTED TO SEE THIS ACTIVITY. LOOKING FURTHER
AHEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND, A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO SET
UP ACROSS THE AREA AS TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SEVERAL ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING MEASURABLE RAINFALL AND SOME SIGNALS
FOR INSTABILITY (MUCAPE) IN SEVERAL MEMBERS. CONTINUE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION
00Z DISCUSSION...WINDY CONDITIONS ARE THE MAIN AVIATION HAZARD
THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN PERIODS OF WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY
WIND GUSTS IN THE 30S AND 40S KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. THIS EVENING,
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA BEFORE
SPREADING EAST TONIGHT INTO WENDESDAY. WITH THAT SAID, KSHR AND
KMLS COULD (MODERATE CHANCE) SEE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
TONIGHT BEFORE WINDS MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTSIDE OF THE WINDS, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT OVER EASTERN MONTANA. WITH
THIS, THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A THUNDERSTORM IS NEAR KMLS AND
KBHK (UP TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE). ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD PRODUCE
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, ERRATIC WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS, AND SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 058/075 051/078 052/082 057/081 056/079 053/076 052/081
00/N 10/U 00/U 02/T 43/T 33/T 21/U
LVM 052/075 044/078 044/081 049/077 047/077 045/075 045/082
00/N 10/U 00/B 06/T 74/T 33/T 21/U
HDN 056/075 048/076 048/082 055/083 054/078 050/076 049/081
10/N 11/U 00/U 02/T 63/T 33/W 11/U
MLS 056/072 048/074 048/077 053/080 054/074 050/074 050/078
42/N 11/U 00/U 02/T 64/W 23/W 21/U
4BQ 057/072 048/073 048/080 055/080 054/072 050/073 050/077
20/N 11/B 00/U 13/T 76/W 34/W 32/W
BHK 049/067 042/070 043/075 047/076 049/069 045/072 045/075
66/T 21/B 00/U 02/T 66/W 24/T 31/U
SHR 053/071 045/072 045/081 050/080 049/074 046/073 045/077
00/N 11/U 00/U 16/T 76/T 46/T 33/T
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
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