246
FXUS65 KBYZ 221040
AFDBYZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
440 AM MDT TUE OCT 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS MORNING; COOLER & BREEZY TODAY.
- NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS (20-80%) WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
- DRY FRIDAY TO SUNDAY.
- PATTERN CHANGE (POSSIBLY COLDER & WETTER) EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
BAND OF FRONTOGENETIC SHOWERS FROM THE ABSAROKAS TO NEAR BILLINGS
HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST HOUR, AND THERE ARE EVEN A
FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NEAR COLUMBUS AS OF
1030Z. BILLINGS COULD ACTUALLY SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER BETWEEN NOW
AND SUNRISE. UPDATED POP/WX GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. JKL
DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THRU JUST ABOUT ALL OF OUR CWA AS OF 07Z.
POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS GUSTED 30-40 MPH BUT HIGHEST GUSTS WERE
FAIRLY BRIEF AS PRESSURE RISES ARE PUSHING QUICKLY TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. AS EXPECTED, WE ARE SEEING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY,
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NORTH AND FAR WEST. NOT EXPECTED ARE THE FEW
LIGHTNING FLASHES NEAR LIVINGSTON AND MORE RECENTLY JUST NORTH OF
BROADVIEW. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SHOWALTER INDICES AROUND ZERO, SO
THE INSTABILITY IS THERE. LOOKING AT THE BIGGER PICTURE, THERE IS
A 110 KNOT WESTERLY H3 JET NOSING THROUGH CENTRAL ID, PROVIDING
LARGE SCALE ASCENT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MT AS THIS IS BEING WRITTEN.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS ASCENT W/ MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND
LINGERING STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
GOING THRU THE MORNING HOURS. BY 12Z, THE FOCUS OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE DRAPED WEST-TO-EAST SOUTH OF BILLINGS, AND WE SHOULD SEE
DRYING ACROSS THE CWA BY AROUND 18Z. OVERALL, THIS IS SETTING UP
TO BE A SLIGHTLY WETTER SYSTEM THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT, BUT
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A 0.10" ALMOST
EVERYWHERE, WHERE THERE IS RAIN. NW WINDS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT
BREEZY INTO THE AFTERNOON EAST OF BILLINGS. LOOK FOR COOLER TEMPS
TODAY W/ HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S MOST PLACES.
WE'LL SEE CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE, AND THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHILLIER NIGHT
TONIGHT WITH A FROST OR FREEZE MANY LOCATIONS (I.E. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 20S AND 30S). WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER W/ TEMPS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S...A PRE-FRONTAL DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT ZONAL
SHORTWAVE SET TO ARRIVE TOMORROW NIGHT.
IN CASE YOU ARE WONDERING, NEITHER BILLINGS NOR MILES CITY (THE
AIRPORTS) HAS SEEN A FREEZE (LOW OF 32F OR COLDER) YET THIS FALL.
MILES CITY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF THAT TONIGHT (FORECAST LOW 30F)
WHILE BILLINGS COULD GET CLOSE BUT SHOULD STAY WARMER AS LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT (FORECAST LOW OF 36F). LATEST
PROBABILITIES OF REACHING 32F TONIGHT ARE 70% AT MLS AND 15% AT
BIL.
JKL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY....
AN QUICK MOVING TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SW
MT, WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH IT, AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
A 20-90% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON THE
EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION, WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, DUE TO CONTINUED CHANGES AMONG DETERMINISTIC MODELS. AS
FOR PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS, A TRACE TO A FEW TENTHS ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SEEM TO BE HONING IN ON THE MOUNTAINS WITH
THIS SYSTEM, AS A RESULT, THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOWFALL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 50S
AND LOW 60SF, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE MOUNTAIN WEST, FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, RESULTING IN WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S AND 70S, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A PATTERN
CHANGE IS IN STORE, EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH WITH
BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS, COOLER TEMPERATURES, AND INCREASED
PRECIPITATION ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT IS STILL TOO SOON
TO DETERMINE HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT, SO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
TIMEFRAME AS IT NEARS.
MATOS
AVIATION
UPDATED TO INTRODUCE ISOLATED TS NEAR KBIL THROUGH ~13Z THIS
MORNING.
COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE NIGHT BRINGING A
SHIFT TO GUSTY NW WINDS. HIGHEST GUSTS (TO 35 KNOTS) WILL END BY
SUNRISE, BUT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL LINGER EAST OF KBIL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. AREAS OF LOW STRATUS W/
MVFR CEILINGS IS ADVECTING FROM THE NORTH AND WILL IMPACT
LOCATIONS EAST OF KBIL THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL
TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOK FOR ISOLATED MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS THRU
AROUND 18Z, AND DURING THIS TIME THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE
PERIODICALLY OBSCURED. JKL
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060 036/065 041/058 033/058 036/069 042/069 041/057
2/W 00/B 62/W 00/U 00/U 01/B 34/W
LVM 058 030/065 031/056 029/061 033/070 038/068 034/054
1/B 01/N 82/W 10/B 00/U 12/W 44/W
HDN 061 030/067 039/059 030/059 032/068 036/070 038/061
2/T 00/B 63/W 00/U 00/U 01/B 33/W
MLS 057 030/066 041/057 029/058 033/066 037/070 040/060
1/B 00/B 32/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/W
4BQ 058 031/069 042/056 031/060 033/068 038/073 041/061
2/W 00/B 34/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 22/W
BHK 056 029/068 036/057 026/058 029/064 036/070 036/059
2/W 00/U 22/W 00/U 00/B 00/U 21/B
SHR 060 029/071 036/057 028/061 031/072 036/074 036/062
2/W 00/B 75/W 10/U 00/U 01/U 34/W
BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page