185
FXUS61 KAKQ 171031
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
631 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LOWERED TODAY IN INCREASING SMOKE OVER
MD/VA COUNTIES. AIR QUALITY ALERTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MD/VA.
A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST NC AWAY FROM THE
NORTHERN OBX. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS IN EFFECT FOR
MOST OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY, MAINLY FOR POTENTIAL LATE DAY
AND EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY THREAT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL RESULT IN POOR AIR
QUALITY, REDUCED VISIBILITIES, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT OVER FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHERE
SMOKE CONCENTRATION WILL BE LOWEST. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST NC TODAY.
2) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, ALONG WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL RESULT IN
POOR AIR QUALITY, REDUCED VISIBILITIES, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT OVER FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS WHERE SMOKE CONCENTRATION WILL BE LOWEST. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST NC TODAY.
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY. THE RRFS AND
HRRR SHOW WAVES OF NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
PUSHING DOWN THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. THIS PLUME WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH LINGERING
HAZE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. HAZE AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN SMOKE APPEAR LIKELY TODAY, ALONG WITH
DETERIORATING AIR QUALITY; AIR QUALITY ALERTS ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF OUR MD AND VA COUNTIES. THE SMOKE-SHADING EFFECT WILL
BE AT PLAY AGAIN TODAY, WITH THE NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE FURTHER
SUPPRESSING SOLAR INSOLATION DUE TO THE HIGHER PARTICULATE
CONCENTRATION.
ADDITIONALLY, LOWER DEWPOINTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE WORKED INTO OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
AND SHOULD PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN VA BEFORE STALLING.
CONSEQUENTLY, MAX HEAT INDICES SHOULD ONLY HOLD IN THE 90S FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THIS
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN OPPRESSIVE
LOWER-TO-MIDDLE 70S DEWPOINTS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE US-58
CORRIDOR. COMBINED WITH LESS SMOKE INTERFERENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN
SECTIONS, HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL YIELD HEAT INDICES RISING TO
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (105F+) IN THE FAR SOUTH. A HEAT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NC COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN
OUTER BANKS.
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS TODAY. CAMS SHOW SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRING ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND RIDING
EAST ALONG THE WEAKENING RIDGE, WHICH COULD CONCEIVABLY MAKE IT
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC BEFORE WEAKENING. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO REMAIN SOUTH OF
US-460, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE VERY LOW. KEPT POPS CAPPED AT 20%.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, ALONG WITH VERY
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
TROUGHING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL PUSH THE STALLED
BOUNDARY BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, SENDING ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SOUTH TOWARD THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL LIKELY
BECOME HUNG UP AND LINGER ACROSS OUR AREA INTO MONDAY. AN INFLUX
OF DEEP GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL PUSH PWS AOA
2.00-2.25" BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SMOKE SHOULD HAVE A LESSER IMPACT ON SATURDAY, THOUGH SOME HAZE
AND LINGERING AIR QUALITY ISSUES REMAIN LIKELY. THIS WILL ALLOW
HOT TEMPS TO RETURN, WITH SATURDAY HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S
(POTENTIALLY UPPER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS) ALONGSIDE SURGING
DEWPOINTS. HEAT INDICES SATURDAY ARE LIKELY TO REACH 105-109F
FOR MOST OF THE AREA BEFORE ANY CONVECTIVE COOLING ARRIVES.
THEREFORE, A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED. GIVEN THE STIFLING MID-TO-UPPER 70S DEWPOINTS, THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED INDICES NEAR 110F ACROSS HAMPTON
ROADS AND INTERIOR NE NC.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PIEDMONT
TROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
CROSSING THE EASTERN LAKES/NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE
FORCING FOR ASCENT TO ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO FIRE TO OUR WEST LATER SATURDAY, PUSHING INTO OUR AREA
SATURDAY EVENING AND LATE NIGHT. GIVEN THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED WNW-NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE HIGHLY UNSTABLE PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT, SOME ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENTS ARE
POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFTER 4-6 PM SATURDAY. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
RESPECTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE 25-35 KT RANGE, AND SPC
HAS INCLUDED THE ENTIRE CWA IN A DAY 2 SLIGHT RISK WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
DUE TO WEAKENING SHEAR ON SUNDAY, SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL TRANSITION PRIMARILY TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ALONG THE SAGGING, WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT STILL MUGGY IN THE LOWER 90S (HEAT INDICES
100-105 F), WITH STORMS LIKELY RE-DEVELOPING EARLIER IN THE
DAY. HAMPTON ROADS HAS BEEN INCLUDED AGAIN IN A MARGINAL RISK IN
THE LATEST DAY 3 ERO FROM WPC.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND EVEN COOLER INTO MONDAY WITH GREATER
AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, AGAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREAT.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EDT FRIDAY...
A THICKER PLUME OF WILDFIRE SMOKE IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING. EXPECTING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE MORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WINDS BECOME NE,
BRINGING MORE SURFACE-BASED SMOKE TO THE AREA. MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE THE WORST FLIGHT CONDITIONS TODAY BEING ACROSS
NORTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING SBY, WHICH IS ALREADY SEEING
SIGNIFICANT VIS REDUCTIONS TO IFR LEVELS AT THIS TIME. RIC WILL
ALSO LIKELY SEE VIS DROP DOWN TO ~2-3SM THIS MORNING. ORF AND
PHF ARE EXPECTED TO SEE REDUCED VIS THROUGH THE DAY TOO, BUT
LIKELY NOT AS LOW AS RIC/SBY. ECG WILL SEE SOME HZ, BUT THE
THICKER FU WILL STAY TO THEIR NORTH. THERE COULD BE SOME
LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH, THAT DROP TO 1SM OR LESS
AT TIMES. STILL NOT CONFIDENT ON IF/WHEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE
LATER TODAY. GUIDANCE SHOWS WINDS BECOMING MORE SE LATER THIS
EVENING POTENTIALLY PUSHING THE THICKER SMOKE BACK OUT OF THE
AREA, BUT SOME HAZINESS WILL LIKELY LINGER REGARDLESS.
OUTLOOK: INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON (HIGHEST AT RIC/SBY), GRADUALLY SPREADING SE SATURDAY
NIGHT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS,
AND IFR-LIFR VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY STORM.
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AGAIN SUNDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 320 AM EDT FRIDAY...
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL LIKELY REDUCE VISIBILITY TODAY.
- POTENTIAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH ELEVATED
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WAVES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT.
BENIGN CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AS A
WEAK BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE AREA, THOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING IN THICKER COVERAGE OF WILDFIRE SMOKE,
POSSIBLY CREATING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ON THE WATER. CONFIDENCE
ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH NOW, BUT IF VISIBILITY DOES APPROACH THE 1NM
CRITERIA, A MARINE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
FOR NOW, THINK THE WORST REDUCTIONS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
POTENTIALLY HELPING PUSH SOME OF THE THICK SURFACE-BASED SMOKE OUT,
BUT WILL NEED TO STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECAST GUIDANCE AS THINGS
CHANGE.
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS SSW WINDS INCREASE.
CURRENTLY FORECASTING 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT IN THE BAY AND
LOWER JAMES RIVER, WITH 20-25KT AND GUSTS TO 25-30KT OFFSHORE. WAVES
IN THE BAY WILL BUILD TO 3-4FT WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-6FT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 3-5FT ACROSS THE SOUTH. WINDS AND WAVES LOOK
TO SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS ALL BEACHES TODAY.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A MODERATE RIP RISK
FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES ON SATURDAY. LINGERING SWELLS MAY ALSO
REQUIRE A MODERATE RIP RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES ON SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...JKP/NB
MARINE...JKP/RHR
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