032
FXUS61 KAKQ 161533
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1133 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. HEAT
RELATED HEADLINES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FROM MID WEEK
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 1130 AM EDT TUESDAY...
QUICK UPDATE:
WILL BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SE VA SHORTLY (UNTIL 22Z/16)
BASED ON DEW POINT AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND FORECASTS.
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NE OF THE FA...AND THE DEW POINTS HAVE
RETURNED BACK INTO THE L-M70S (AND WILL BE NO LOWER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK). NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING
FORECAST W/ ANOTHER HOT BUT MORE HUMID AFTERNOON AHEAD ACROSS
THE FA. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE L-M90S (U80S TO L90S ALONG THE
COAST). HEAT INDEX VALUES U90S TO AROUND 103F.
INCREASED PW VALUES WILL ALSO AID IN GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF
PULSE TYPE TSTMS (BY LATE) THIS AFTN INTO (EARLY) THIS EVENING.
HAVE GONE WITH 20-40% POP AWAY FROM THE ERN SHORE. SLOW
STEERING FLOW WOULD MAKE HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT HREF
DOES INDICATE A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS...SO AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...
COVERAGE QUICKLY DROPS OFF AFTER SUNSET. CLEARING AND HUMID
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
THE REMNANT LOW OF BARRY WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC, BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY MINIMAL (DIURNAL) RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC
SEPARATED FROM UPPER LEVEL FORCING. NEVERTHELESS, 20-30% POP
(ISO TO WIDELY SCT STORMS) HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR WED AFTN AND
EVENING, GIVEN LLVL MOISTURE AND STRONG SFC HEATING. HOT AND
HUMID WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE
M90S INLAND...U80S- L90S AT THE (IMMEDIATE) COAST. HEAT INDEX
VALUES IN THE 100-104 RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE MAY BE
NEEDED INLAND (CENTRAL VA INTO INTERIOR NE NC), BUT WILL HOLD
OFF FOR NOW GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS. EITHER WAY, A ROUND OF HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND.
BEFORE (EVEN) HOTTER WX ARRIVES (LATE WEEK-WEEKEND)...A WEAK
TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THU WHICH POTENTIALLY
CAUSES ANOTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTION (THU AFTERNOON/EVENING).
OTW...PARTLY CLOUDY W/ LOWS WED NIGHT MAINLY IN THE M-U70S.
HIGHS THU IN THE L-M90S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 220 PM EDT MONDAY...
A TYPICAL MID JULY/SUMMERTIME WX PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS HI PRES SFC-ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE
SE/MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON W THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH RIGHT NOW THAT THIS WILL BE THE HOTTEST
PERIOD OF THE SUMMER SO FAR. MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY...HOT/HUMID
DURING THE DAY...VERY WARM/HUMID AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD (W/
AOB CLIMO DIURNAL POPS (BLO 30%) - EXCEPT MAYBE A BIT HIGHER BY
MON). HIGHS FRI-SUN 95-100F...LOCALLY U80S-L90S AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. NIGHTTIME LOWS 75-80F. HEAT ADVISORIES (HEAT
INDICES 105-109F) AND/OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS (HEAT INDICES
110F+) ARE LIKELY FRI THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND (DEPENDENT UPON
FUTURE DEW POINT FORECASTS). WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE HOT WX MAY BEGIN
TO BREAK AFTER MON AS HI PRES BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD FRONT
PRESSES TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE 90S.
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 655 AM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
12Z TAF PERIOD. DRY THIS MORNING WITH SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE
THIS AFTN/EVENING (20-40%) AT RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG AND LESS THAN A
20% CHC AT SBY. THE WIND WILL BECOME S AT 5-8KT BY AFTN.
OUTLOOK: THE CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT,
WITH ONLY A 20% OR LESS CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY. THE CHC
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS BUMPS UP SLIGHTLY TO 20-30% THURSDAY
AFTN/EVENING AND THEN DROPS BACK TO 20% OR LESS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU WED NIGHT. EARLY THIS
MORNING, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CNTRD JUST OFF THE MID ATLC
COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE 5-10 KT, WITH WAVES AND SEAS 1-2 FT
OVER THE WATERS. SSW WINDS 5-15 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS
LATER TODAY INTO WED MORNING, AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OUT
TO SEA, AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THRU THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS. WED INTO WED NIGHT, BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WRN ATLC, WHILE THE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE MTNS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT OVER THE WATERS. THEN, GENERALLY SSW 5-15
KT THU AND FRI, AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER
THE AREA. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.
CLIMATE
UPCOMING HEATWAVE MAY CHALLENGE OR BREAK RECORD HIGHS AND/OR
RECORD HIGH LOWS (ESP FROM FRI THROUGH SUN).
RICHMOND RECORD HIGH RECORD HIGH LOW
WED (7/17)100/198076/2005
THU (7/18)101/197777/2005
FRI (7/19) 101/194277/2013
SAT (7/20)103/193078/2013
SUN (7/21)104/193077/1930
MON (7/22) 103/195279/2011
NORFOLKRECORD HIGHRECORD HIGH LOW
WED (7/17)100/188780/1983
THU (7/18)104/194279/1995
FRI (7/19) 101/194284/1942
SAT (7/20)102/194279/1977
SUN (7/21)101/192680/1983
MON (7/22) 102/201182/2011
SALISBURYRECORD HIGHRECORD HIGH LOW
WED (7/17) 99/201280/1983
THU (7/18)100/201278/2012
FRI (7/19) 99/197778/2013
SAT (7/20)104/193083/2013
SUN (7/21)106/193077/2017
MON (7/22) 104/193080/2011
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ087>090-092-
093-095>097-523>525.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...ESS/TMG
CLIMATE...
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