032  
FXUS61 KAKQ 161533  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
1133 AM EDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON.  
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LEAD  
TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK. HEAT  
RELATED HEADLINES ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION FROM MID WEEK  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 1130 AM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
QUICK UPDATE:  
WILL BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR SE VA SHORTLY (UNTIL 22Z/16)  
BASED ON DEW POINT AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND FORECASTS.  
 
WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NE OF THE FA...AND THE DEW POINTS HAVE  
RETURNED BACK INTO THE L-M70S (AND WILL BE NO LOWER THROUGH  
EARLY NEXT WEEK). NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE GOING  
FORECAST W/ ANOTHER HOT BUT MORE HUMID AFTERNOON AHEAD ACROSS  
THE FA. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE L-M90S (U80S TO L90S ALONG THE  
COAST). HEAT INDEX VALUES U90S TO AROUND 103F.  
 
INCREASED PW VALUES WILL ALSO AID IN GREATER AREAL COVERAGE OF  
PULSE TYPE TSTMS (BY LATE) THIS AFTN INTO (EARLY) THIS EVENING.  
HAVE GONE WITH 20-40% POP AWAY FROM THE ERN SHORE. SLOW  
STEERING FLOW WOULD MAKE HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT HREF  
DOES INDICATE A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS...SO AN ISOLATED STRONG  
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 355 AM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
COVERAGE QUICKLY DROPS OFF AFTER SUNSET. CLEARING AND HUMID  
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.  
 
THE REMNANT LOW OF BARRY WILL GET ABSORBED INTO THE NORTHERN  
STREAM FLOW LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE  
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-  
ATLANTIC, BUT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ONLY MINIMAL (DIURNAL) RAIN  
CHANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC  
SEPARATED FROM UPPER LEVEL FORCING. NEVERTHELESS, 20-30% POP  
(ISO TO WIDELY SCT STORMS) HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR WED AFTN AND  
EVENING, GIVEN LLVL MOISTURE AND STRONG SFC HEATING. HOT AND  
HUMID WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. HIGHS IN THE  
M90S INLAND...U80S- L90S AT THE (IMMEDIATE) COAST. HEAT INDEX  
VALUES IN THE 100-104 RANGE. A HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINE MAY BE  
NEEDED INLAND (CENTRAL VA INTO INTERIOR NE NC), BUT WILL HOLD  
OFF FOR NOW GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS. EITHER WAY, A ROUND OF HEAT  
ADVISORIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 
BEFORE (EVEN) HOTTER WX ARRIVES (LATE WEEK-WEEKEND)...A WEAK  
TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE CROSSING THE REGION THU WHICH POTENTIALLY  
CAUSES ANOTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTION (THU AFTERNOON/EVENING).  
OTW...PARTLY CLOUDY W/ LOWS WED NIGHT MAINLY IN THE M-U70S.  
HIGHS THU IN THE L-M90S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 220 PM EDT MONDAY...  
 
A TYPICAL MID JULY/SUMMERTIME WX PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE  
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AS HI PRES SFC-ALOFT BUILDS FROM THE  
SE/MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON W THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY.  
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH RIGHT NOW THAT THIS WILL BE THE HOTTEST  
PERIOD OF THE SUMMER SO FAR. MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY...HOT/HUMID  
DURING THE DAY...VERY WARM/HUMID AT NIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD (W/  
AOB CLIMO DIURNAL POPS (BLO 30%) - EXCEPT MAYBE A BIT HIGHER BY  
MON). HIGHS FRI-SUN 95-100F...LOCALLY U80S-L90S AT THE  
IMMEDIATE COAST. NIGHTTIME LOWS 75-80F. HEAT ADVISORIES (HEAT  
INDICES 105-109F) AND/OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS (HEAT INDICES  
110F+) ARE LIKELY FRI THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND (DEPENDENT UPON  
FUTURE DEW POINT FORECASTS). WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS  
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE HOT WX MAY BEGIN  
TO BREAK AFTER MON AS HI PRES BREAKS DOWN AND A COLD FRONT  
PRESSES TOWARD/INTO THE REGION. HIGHS MON MAINLY IN THE 90S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 655 AM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE  
12Z TAF PERIOD. DRY THIS MORNING WITH SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH  
CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE  
THIS AFTN/EVENING (20-40%) AT RIC/PHF/ORF/ECG AND LESS THAN A  
20% CHC AT SBY. THE WIND WILL BECOME S AT 5-8KT BY AFTN.  
 
OUTLOOK: THE CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT,  
WITH ONLY A 20% OR LESS CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY. THE CHC  
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS BUMPS UP SLIGHTLY TO 20-30% THURSDAY  
AFTN/EVENING AND THEN DROPS BACK TO 20% OR LESS FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 430 AM EDT TUESDAY...  
 
NO HEADLINES IN THE SHORT TERM TODAY THRU WED NIGHT. EARLY THIS  
MORNING, SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS CNTRD JUST OFF THE MID ATLC  
COAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE 5-10 KT, WITH WAVES AND SEAS 1-2 FT  
OVER THE WATERS. SSW WINDS 5-15 KT ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS  
LATER TODAY INTO WED MORNING, AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OUT  
TO SEA, AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THRU THE OH AND TN  
VALLEYS. WED INTO WED NIGHT, BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND  
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WRN ATLC, WHILE THE TROUGH OF LOW  
PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE MTNS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SSW WINDS  
INCREASING TO 10-20 KT OVER THE WATERS. THEN, GENERALLY SSW 5-15  
KT THU AND FRI, AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER  
THE AREA. WAVES 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
UPCOMING HEATWAVE MAY CHALLENGE OR BREAK RECORD HIGHS AND/OR  
RECORD HIGH LOWS (ESP FROM FRI THROUGH SUN).  
 
RICHMOND RECORD HIGH RECORD HIGH LOW  
 
WED (7/17)100/198076/2005  
THU (7/18)101/197777/2005  
FRI (7/19) 101/194277/2013  
SAT (7/20)103/193078/2013  
SUN (7/21)104/193077/1930  
MON (7/22) 103/195279/2011  
 
NORFOLKRECORD HIGHRECORD HIGH LOW  
 
WED (7/17)100/188780/1983  
THU (7/18)104/194279/1995  
FRI (7/19) 101/194284/1942  
SAT (7/20)102/194279/1977  
SUN (7/21)101/192680/1983  
MON (7/22) 102/201182/2011  
 
SALISBURYRECORD HIGHRECORD HIGH LOW  
 
WED (7/17) 99/201280/1983  
THU (7/18)100/201278/2012  
FRI (7/19) 99/197778/2013  
SAT (7/20)104/193083/2013  
SUN (7/21)106/193077/2017  
MON (7/22) 104/193080/2011  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-  
030>032.  
VA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ087>090-092-  
093-095>097-523>525.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...MAM  
NEAR TERM...ALB  
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM  
LONG TERM...ALB  
AVIATION...MAM  
MARINE...ESS/TMG  
CLIMATE...  
 
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