407  
FXUS61 KAKQ 051902  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
302 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY EXPECTED.  
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIKELY MOVES  
INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY, BRINGING SHOWERS AND A  
FEW EMBEDDED STORMS, PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE  
AREA. BEHIND THE STORM, VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MAINLY HIT OR  
MISS TYPE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE  
EACH DAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER COASTAL NE NC.  
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE ALBEMARLE SOUND.  
 
- INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR E NC  
OVERNIGHT. LOWS 65-75 (WARMEST FAR SE COAST).  
 
LATEST ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW BROAD 1022+MB SFC HIGH  
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA, RIDGING BACK SW  
INTO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC. TO THE SOUTH, NOW-TROPICAL STORM  
CHANTAL IS POSITIONED OFF THE SC/GA COAST. ALOFT, HEIGHTS  
CONTINUE TO INCREASE SLOWLY, AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES  
TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. LIGHT E-SE  
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE PW VALUES FROM <1" TO  
1.5 TO 2" BY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE MID TO UPPER  
80S UNDER A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AS OF THIS WRITING.  
THERE ARE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS E NC INTO THE  
NORTHERN NC OUTER BANKS, ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS FROM  
TS CHANTAL. GIVEN RATHER LIMITED KINEMATICS, LITTLE MORE THAN  
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH  
EARLY THIS EVENING MAINLY SOUTH OF US-158 IN NC. OTHERWISE, A  
RATHER PLEASANT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER INCREASES  
FROM THE S THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS CHANTAL DRIFTS SLOWLY TOWARD  
THE SC COAST. REMAINING MAINLY DRY THIS EVENING, THOUGH AS MORE  
EFFICIENT TRANSPORT TROPICAL MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM NNE INTO  
THE AREA AND PWS STREAM BACK AOA 1.5"-2", EXPECT MORE  
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WITH SHOWER CHANCES TO RETURN TO NE NC  
LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. EARLY MORNING LOWS RANGE  
FROM THE MID 60S NW TO THE MID 70S SE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGE:  
 
- MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS  
TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL LIFTS NORTHWARD.  
 
- MAIN THREATS FROM CHANTAL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,  
ESPECIALLY HAMPTON ROADS AND NORTHEAST NC AND INCREASED RISK  
FOR RIP CURRENTS.  
 
HUMIDITY AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA SUNDAY, AS  
TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN WITH THE SE FLOW AHEAD OF  
CHANTAL. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER LAND IN SC BY  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT POINT, THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WEAKENS  
TO A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND PROGRESSES N UP THE COAST  
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT.  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS E NC SUNDAY MORNING,  
WITH SHOWERS/STORMS TO THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE  
AFTERNOON, BUT CONCENTRATED MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.  
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE STORMS, BUT WITH PWATS  
RISING TO 2 TO 2.5" OVER MUCH OF THE AREA (HIGHEST SE), ANY  
SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALL BUT THE  
EASTERN SHORE ARE NOW IN AN ERO FOR TOMORROW (SUNDAY).  
 
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD DIMINISH AREAL COVERAGE OF  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN, AT LEAST INITIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT.  
HOWEVER, AS THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION CONTINUES NORTH AND CONTINUES  
TO PULL IN TROPICAL MOISTURE, POPS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALL  
OVER AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS  
THE MAIN SENSIBLE WX THREAT. THERE REMAINS A STRONG MODEL  
SIGNAL FOR IVT OF 600-800+ KG/M/S LIFTING ACROSS THE COASTAL  
PLAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING (95-98% PERCENTILE OF  
CLIMO). GIVEN RECENT RAINS OF EARLIER THIS WEEK, THIS COULD  
EASILY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF  
FLASH FLOODING, AND COMMUNITIES EAST OF I-95 ALONG THE COASTAL  
PLAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE RAINFALL FORECAST CLOSELY  
IN THE COMING DAY OR SO. THE MARGINAL ERO IS NOW IN PLACE FOR  
THE ENTIRE AREA ON DAY 3 (MONDAY). PRECIP LOOKS TO MOSTLY COME  
TO AN END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY NIGHT, BUT A  
FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER BY THE COAST OVERNIGHT. HIGHS ON BOTH  
SUN AND MON WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S. LOWS BOTH NIGHTS WILL BE  
IN THE LOW- MID 70S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- BECOMING HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK  
WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.  
 
AS THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL DEPART THE REGION, THE REST OF THE  
WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLY WARM AND RATHER HUMID, WHILE REMAINING  
UNSETTLED, DUE TO WEAK TROUGHINESS LINGERING ACROSS THE MID-  
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE  
IN THE WEEK. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH  
CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL SEE SCATTERED ACTIVITY  
TUES- WED, POTENTIALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THURS-  
FRI AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.  
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 90S TUES AND WED, THEN PERHAPS A  
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER TO END THE WEEK WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND  
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THE RETURN OF TEMPS IN THE 90S AND THE  
HUMIDITY ALSO MEANS A RETURN TO HEAT INDICES RIGHT AROUND 100  
DEGREES. HAVE UNDERCUT HEAT INDICES A BIT ONCE AGAIN, WITH THE  
IDEA THAT BL REMAINS MIXED ENOUGH TUE-WED TO BREAK WIDESPREAD  
UPPER 70S TD VALUES CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE NBM.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
OUTSIDE OF SOME SHOWERS AROUND THE KECG TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON  
INTO EARLY EVENING, VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL  
PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS AT KORF AND  
KECG LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS  
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS. E-SE WINDS 5-10KT BECOME  
LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE LATE  
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW RESULTS IN CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASING  
FROM S TO N AS TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL SLOWLY ASCENDS THE  
SOUTHEAST COAST. SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ECG BY SUNRISE  
SUNDAY MORNING, AND HAVE APPENDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW.  
REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE SHOWER CHANCES RAMP UP BY LATER  
SUNDAY MORNING AT ORF/PHF AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT RIC/SBY.  
 
OUTLOOK: LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN HEAVIER  
SHOWERS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR ALL AREAS ON MONDAY,  
WITH ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR POSSIBLE. VERY WARM, HUMID  
CONDITIONS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH LATE DAY  
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH SOME EARLY  
MORNING GROUND FOG/STRATUS.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.  
 
- THE VAST MAJORITY OF MARINE IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL  
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS, ALTHOUGH A BRIEF  
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.  
 
- POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH LATE  
MONDAY.  
 
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MUCH OF  
THE AREA. WHILE TO THE SOUTH, TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL CURRENTLY SITS  
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA ARE REMAINING  
BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT WITH  
SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS ACROSS THE SOUTH HAVE BUILT  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND ARE BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FT. WHILE ACROSS THE BAY  
WAVES ARE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FT WITH 3 FT WAVES ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE  
BAY. TO THE NORTH SEAS HAVE YET TO BUILD BUT ARE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT.  
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO  
BREAK DOWN ALLOWING TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL TO NUDGE NORTH. WINDS  
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT WITH  
GUSTS AROUND 15 KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD FURTHER NORTH ACROSS  
THE OCEAN THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE BETWEEN 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS  
THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FT ACROSS THE BAY. BY SUNDAY MORNING TROPICAL  
STORM CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOMEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTH  
CAROLINA COASTLINE THEN IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH. WHEN IT TRACKS  
NORTH IT IS EXPECTED TO BRING POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE  
LOCAL WATERS. LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE RISEN SLIGHTLY AND ARE NOW  
BETWEEN 30 TO 60% OF 18+ KT WINDS ON THE BAY FOR A 3-6 HOUR PERIOD  
SUN AFTN/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL  
SCAS. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY MORNING BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN  
AS THE REMNANTS OF TS CHANTAL MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT. SEAS  
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE BAY AND 3 TO  
4FT WITH ISOLATED 5 FT WAVES ACROSS THE OCEAN. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO  
BECOME S AND DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS THE LOW SLOWLY EXITS.  
VARIABLE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK  
WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY.  
 
MODERATE RISK OF RIPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ALL  
BEACHES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH RISK OF RIPS TOMORROW FOR  
THE SOUTHERN BEACHES, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MAM  
NEAR TERM...MAM  
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM  
LONG TERM...AC/MAM  
AVIATION...MAM  
MARINE...ERI/HET  
 
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