688
FXUS61 KAKQ 142048
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
348 PM EST FRI NOV 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS
EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMER AND MAINLY DRY THIS WEEKEND.
- RAPIDLY FALLING HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST. WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPING FLOW
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR INLAND AREAS BUT
THE EASTERN SHORE WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 60S WITH WINDS OFF THE BAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND DRIER WITH ANY LIGHT PRECIP
ACROSS THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH QPF ON
THE ORDER OF A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS. MUCH WARMER ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS SOME SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUNDAY. REGARDLESS, GUSTY WEST WINDS AND
PLUMMETING DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPE WINDS INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-40 MPH
LATE MORNING THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME, DEW
POINTS DROP IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S, RESULTING IN RH FALLING TO 20-30%. COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA.
NOT AS WINDY ON MONDAY BUT STILL BREEZY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES
SW TO AROUND 50 DEGREES NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS INCREASE
MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH LOWS IN THE 30S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
- WARM FRONT LIFTS SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH.
- A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
SUNDAY.
ON SATURDAY, WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST WHILE A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA, INCREASING DEW POINTS AND
TEMPERATURES. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A STRONGER
PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT THE DAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. BY SATURDAY EVENING, THE WARM FRONT WILL BE
POSITIONED SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS COULD PRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MARYLAND
EASTERN SHORE, WHERE THE BEST LIFT IS FOCUSED. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW, SO POPS HAVE BEEN KEPT BETWEEN 15-30%. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE MILD AND PLEASANT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS
VA/NC. SUNDAY PRESENTS SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES DUE TO THE
TIMING OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IF THE
DRY AIR ARRIVES EARLIER, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY INCREASE. IF
IT ARRIVES LATER, HIGHER DEW POINTS WOULD LIMIT FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY,
BRINGING BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH. THESE
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S
TO LOW 70S, WITH SOME MID 70S POSSIBLE ACROSS NE NC. SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY IN THE POST-FRONTAL CAA
REGIME, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 345 PM FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO A BIT BETTER TEMPORAL AGREEMENT REGARDING A
FAST-MOVING SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THIS FAST
MOVING SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE MID WEEK
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
POTENTIALLY IMPACTS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1250 PM EST FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z/14 TAF PERIOD. SATELLITE
SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS N OF RIC. WIND DIRECTION IS QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE
REGION BUT SPEEDS ARE GENERALLY 5-10 KT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS FOR THE SE TERMINALS TONIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA BUT WILL LET THE 00Z TAFS ZERO
IN ON THE EXACT TIMING AND MAGNITUDE. WINDS BECOME SW 5-10 KT
BEHIND THE FRONT.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY DEGRADED FLYING CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
POTENTIALLY INCLUDING SBY.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS INCREASING WINDS/BUILDING WAVES SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.
- A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION.
WINDS TURN TO THE W AND THEN SW THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT,
INCREASING TO 10-15 KT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS N
OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. S OF PARRAMORE ISLAND, A 6-12 HR PERIOD OF 15-
20 KT WINDS IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A QUICK-MOVING DISTURBANCE
ALOFT MOVES THROUGH. WILL HOLD OF ON SCAS AT THIS TIME WITH SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5 FT, ALONG WITH THE BRIEF NATURE OF THIS
EVENT. LIGHTER WINDS AND BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
FROM LATER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE W SATURDAY
NIGHT, CROSSING THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED SW WINDS (15-
25 KT) DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, VEERING TO THE NW
SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE VERY LIKELY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY IN
BOTH THE PRE-FRONTAL AND POST-FRONTAL REGIMES. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED UPWARD WITH THE WINDS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS STRONG CAA
FUNNELS OVER THE WATERS, WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 30-35 KT ON
THE COASTAL WATERS AND CHESAPEAKE BAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
MOST COMPRESSED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND WIND
PROBABILITIES (FROM BOTH THE EPS AND OUR LOCAL PROBS) FOR FREQUENT
GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY TO 50-80% IN THIS
AREA, COMPARED TO YESTERDAY'S FORECAST PACKAGE WHEN THEY WERE LESS
THAN 20%. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR OCEAN ZONES ANZ652
AND ANZ560 FROM 18Z/1 PM SUNDAY THROUGH 21Z/5 PM MONDAY WHERE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR 40 KT WIND GUSTS RESIDES. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE INCREASED WINDS
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, SEAS BUILD TO 3-6 FT, BUT THE
OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM BUILDING TOO HIGH.
WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY PREVAIL IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE OR LESS,
OTHER THAN 3-4 FT SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ650-652.
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...LKB/SW
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