409
FXUS61 KAKQ 041021
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
621 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY.
SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAT ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE VA AS WELL AS NE NC ALONG AND
EAST OF I-95.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 400 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
ALOFT, THE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SOUTHEAST WITH A TROUGH ACROSS SE CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE
TROUGH SLIDES FARTHER SOUTH TODAY WHILE THE RIDGE BECOME MORE
AMPLIFIED INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS SUCH, THE BELT OF NW FLOW
ALOFT SHIFTS A BIT SOUTH OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL PLACE THE
ENTIRE LOCAL AREA UNDER THE FAVORABLE CORRIDOR FOR STORMS WHICH
STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND OHIO SE INTO VA. WILL
NOTE THAT CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE ALREADY FORMED ACROSS WISCONSIN (E
AND NW). THESE STORM COMPLEXES MAY CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE NW FLOW
AND APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
AS IS TYPICAL IN NW FLOW MCS PATTERNS, CAMS MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON HOW LONG THIS CONVECTION PERSISTS AND ESPECIALLY
WHETHER OR NOT IT CAN SURVIVE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH,
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AS WELL AS
SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY TO GET A BETTER IDEA
AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT CAN MAKE IT
HERE.
WITH FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS AND THE APPROACHING FRONT, SCATTERED TO
POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. GIVEN THE
OVERALL FAVORABLE SEVERE PARAMETERS OF ADEQUATE CAPE AND 0-6KM SHEAR
OF 30-45 KT, ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. DCAPE WILL LIKELY ALSO BE HIGH, FURTHER SUPPORTING THE
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND GENERALLY
HIGH LCLS WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY TORNADO THREAT. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP, SPC HAS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY. CONVECTION SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, SPC
DOES NOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OVERNIGHT ROUND OF CONVECTION
MOVING INTO WV WHICH MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED IN CASE IT CAN MAKE
IT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
BY SAT, THE TROUGH BUILDS CLOSER TO THE LOCAL AREA, PUSHING A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY THROUGH. HOWEVER, RECENT TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A SLOWER
FROPA WITH THE FRONT POTENTIALLY STALLING JUST SOUTH OF THE FA.
AS IT STANDS, THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS N/NNW WINDS SAT
AFTERNOON WHICH IS GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
NEVERTHELESS, A SUFFICIENT OVERLAP OF CAPE AND SHEAR WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ACROSS THE FA WITH HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AS SUCH, FORCING FROM ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE SW/S PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS SAT GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-64 WITH A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS NE NC AND EXTREME S VA. THE
MAIN THREAT WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH,
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF MORE DISCRETE
CONVECTION/SUPERCELLS ARE ABLE TO FORM.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL NOT BE THE ONLY POTENTIAL HAZARD. WPC HAS PLACED
THE ENTIRE FA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (ERO)
TODAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA (APART FROM PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
NECK AND EASTERN SHORE) UNDER A MARGINAL RISK AGAIN ON SAT. IN FACT,
WPC HAS EVEN PLACED A SMALL SLIGHT ERO ACROSS EXTREME SE VA AND NE
NC SAT (INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE HAMPTON ROADS) GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. FORTUNATELY, GIVEN THE SHEAR
IN PLACE, INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING BOTH DAYS WHICH
SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE FLOODING POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF TRAINING.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES DECREASE SUN (15-40% POPS) TO MAINLY THE SW
HALF OF THE FA. BEYOND SUN, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH HEAT
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SE VA AS WELL AS NE
NC ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
WITH THE RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE TODAY AND THE COLD FRONT WELL TO
THE NORTH, ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED. HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REACH THE UPPER 90S SW WITH POTENTIALLY ONLY
LOWER 90S NE. MEANWHILE, DEW POINTS LIKELY REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE
LOW-MID 70S APART FROM THE SW PIEDMONT WHERE MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR
LOCALLY UPPER 60S DEW POINTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR YET ANOTHER DAY
WITH HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 100F FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE HOTTEST
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA AND SE VA INTO
NE NC WHERE HEAT INDICES OF 105-109F ARE POSSIBLE. AS SUCH, HAVE
KEPT HEAT ADVISORIES IN PLACE FOR THESE AREAS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH
INTO THE NORTHERN NECK, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN REACHING ABOVE 105F
HEAT INDICES GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING STABILITY FROM THE
MCS THAT MOVED THROUGH OVERNIGHT. AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS
DISCUSSION, THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE MCS HAS MADE IT NEARLY
TO WAKEFIELD WHICH MAY RESULT IN TEMPS AND/OR DEW POINTS
UNDERPERFORMING SLIGHTLY ACROSS CENTRAL VA. ADDITIONALLY,
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER LOWERS CONFIDENCE
AS WELL. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN HOW THE OVER-CHURNED
AIRMASS WILL AFFECT MIXING TODAY, HAVE DECIDED TO NOT MAKE ANY
CHANGES TO THE HEAT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA BY SAT WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 80S NE TO THE LOW-MID 90S SW SAT AND LOW-MID 80S SUN INTO
MON. THE RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDS BACK IN AT LEAST BRIEFLY BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS TIME GIVEN A PLETHORA OF SHORTWAVES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 630 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. A FEW
LINGERING SHRA WILL DEPART SBY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
W/NW WINDS WILL BE AOB 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 04/19Z, THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT COVERAGE IS LOW. CURRENTLY ONLY HAVE A
PROB30 IN FOR ECG AFTER 21Z SINCE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE FURTHER SOUTH. ONCE AGAIN,
GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS FROM +RA WILL BE
LIKELY IN ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE OVERNIGHT, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT LINGERING ACTIVITY FOR
SBY AGAIN. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT, TURNING WINDS MORE NORTHERLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: STORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
POPS S AND SW OF RIC. MAINLY DRY/VFR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT, THOUGH BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST WITH NE FLOW.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
TURNING WINDS NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY. EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
- NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, POTENTIALLY WARRANTING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES.
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT
EARLY THIS MORNING AS EXPECTED. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS
DIMINISHING TOWARDS DAYBREAK. THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE CHANCES COME TO AN END. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH SEAS OF 2-3FT AND WAVES IN THE BAY
OF 1-2FT. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS IS POSSIBLE
LATER THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT AND START TO TURN WINDS NORTHERLY. WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE TO
10-15KT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
CURRENTLY EXPECTING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS SUBSIDE LATER SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING 15-20KT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 4-5FT ACROSS THE NORTH AND 5-6FT FOR THE
SOUTH, WITH THE HIGHER SEAS FURTHER OFFSHORE. WAVES IN THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY WILL INCREASE TO 3FT AS WELL. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER
THIS FOR PORTIONS OF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MORE BENIGN MARINE
CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WINDS AND
SEAS BOTH SUBSIDE.
THERE IS A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND SATURDAY FOR ALL BEACHES.
RIP RISK BECOMES MODERATE ON SUNDAY AS ONSHORE WINDS AND WAVES
BUILD.
CLIMATE
NO RECORDS WERE SET ON THURSDAY, 9/3 AT ANY OF THE CLIMATE
SITES. RECORD HIGHS WILL BE APPROACHED TODAY (FRIDAY, 9/4) AT A
FEW SITES.
RICHMOND: RECORD HIGH:
FRI (9/4) 98/2023
NORFOLK: RECORD HIGH:
FRI (9/4) 96/1985
SALISBURY: RECORD HIGH:
FRI (9/4) 95/1944
ELIZABETH CITY: RECORD HIGH:
FRI (9/4) 98/1944
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VAZ080>090-092-097-098-511>520-523>525-528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...JKP
MARINE...JKP
CLIMATE...AJB/JKP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page