123
FXUS61 KAKQ 171042
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
642 AM EDT WED OCT 17 2018
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING,
THEN CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
FROM THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE LOCAL AREA DURING SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
AS OF 315 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS AND -RA COVERING THE LOCAL AREA ATTM. WEAK
LO PRES WILL BE EXITING THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING...RESULTING
IN THE RA AND LOW CLOUDS TO SHIFT ESE. QUICK CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM MID MORNING INTO MIDDAY AS WINDS BECOMINE WNW (A
LITTLE GUSTY AT TIMES TO 20 MPH ESP NEAR THE COAST). HIGHS IN
THE U60S-L70S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
TONIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR
WITH COOL HI PRES BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND A CLEAR SKY.
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP FAIRLY QUICKLY SHORTLY AFTER
SUNSET. LOWS FROM THE M-U30S TO L40S FOR THE PIEDMONT INTO
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN AND M40S-L50S AT THE
COAST IN SE VA/NE NC.
SUNNY AND COOL THU WITH HI PRES SETTLING OVER THE FA. HIGHS
FROM THE M50S N TO AROUND 60F FAR SE...W/ DEW POINTS MAINLY IN
THE L-M30S. EVEN COOLER THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AS 1030MB
HI PRES SITS OVER THE LOCAL AREA. LOWS FROM THE M30S FOR THE
PIEDMONT, INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN, AND INTERIOR MD ERN SHORE
(UPPER 30S FOR URBAN AREAS), AND SOME COLDER LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY COULD DROP TO 32F GIVEN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AND A DRY AIRMASS. ADDED PATCHY FROST FOR NOW...ESP W
OF I 95. ELSEWHERE, LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE U30S TO L40S...W/
LOCALLY M-U40S RIGHT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN SE VA/NE NC. HI
PRES GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE BY FRI AFTN. INCREASING CLOUDS
(LATE) W/ HIGHS IN THE L-M60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A RATHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CANADA (ALONG W/
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE COUPLED WITH A COLD FRONT). AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FRI NIGHT-SATURDAY, SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL STREAM FROM THE GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS/SRN
MID-ATLANTIC AS WE BRIEFLY GO UNDER WSW FLOW ALOFT. THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE RETURNING, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
AND A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING FROM WSW TO ENE
ALONG THE FRONT WILL ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE REGION. THUS, WILL MAINTAIN POPS OF 40-50% INCREASING TO
60-70% FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL VA FRI NIGHT. AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THE HIGHEST
RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC FROM
12- 18Z SAT, AS THE 16/12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO PAINT A
WIDESPREAD AREA 0.25-0.75" OF RAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF AN AVC-AKQ-
MFV LINE. LOWS FRI NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 50S AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
FORECAST HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S. RAIN
CHANCES RAPIDLY GO DOWN AFTER 17-20Z/20 (SAT) AS THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR SAT NIGHT AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE N/NW. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-
MID 40S NW TO THE LOW 50S IN COASTAL SE VA/NE NC.
EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL CAA CONTINUES ON SUNDAY (850HPA TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM -1C TO -4C BY THE END OF THE DAY. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SUN NIGHT. HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER
50S ON SUNDAY. WITH THE HIGH (NEARLY) OVERHEAD, EXPECT A COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MID-UPPER 30S INLAND/40S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH BY MON PM,
ALLOWING FOR A VERY SLIGHT WARM-UP. LOW PRESSURE (SFC-ALOFT)
PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH ON TUE/TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL DRAG
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LATE TUE-WED. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL LIKELY BE A DRY FROPA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ON
MON RISING INTO THE MID 60S AREA-WIDE ON TUE, WITH MORNING LOWS
IN THE UPPER 30S-MID 40S ON TUE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 640 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
WEAK SFC LO PRES PASSES OFF THE COAST THIS MORNING...RA AND THE
LOWER CLOUDS WILL SHIFT ESE. CIGS LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
12-14Z/17...THEN CLEARING OUT FOR THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON. WNW
WIND INCREASING TO ~10 KT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO
GUST TO 15-20 KT MIDDAY/THIS AFTERNOON. COOL AND DRY HI PRES
PREVAILS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION SAT BRINGING A HIGH PROB FOR -RA. HI
PRES RETURNS SUN.
MARINE
AS OF 420 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
HAVE HOISTED SCA'S FOR THE ENTIRE WATERS EXCEPT THE UPPER JAMES
(637) ON THIS MORNING'S FCST ISSUANCE, DUE TO THE NEXT SHOT OF
CAA THIS EVENING THRU THU. EARLY THIS MORNING, WINDS WERE
GENERALLY SSW OR W 5-10 KT OVER THE WATERS. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACRS ERN NC, WILL TRACK ENE AND OUT TO SEA LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTN, ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN NW OR W 5-15 KT.
NW OR N WINDS THEN QUICKLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT ACROSS MOST OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, AS
THE CENTER OF STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FM THE PLAINS EASTWARD
INTO THE OH VALLEY. SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 4-6 FT OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS, AND 3-4 FT OVER THE CHES BAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH FM LATER THU MORNING INTO THU NIGHT, AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE MID ATLC REGION. THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE
LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR INCREASED SSW WINDS OF
10-20 KT, BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE SAT
INTO SAT NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
AS OF 320 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
NUMEROUS RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE ON THE APPOMATTOX
BASIN. AREAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS ACTIVE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE MATTAPONI RIVER WHERE THE LEVEL IS STILL STEADY AT
BEULAHVILLE. SEE FLWAKQ/FLSAKQ FOR SITE-SPECIFIC DETAILS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ635-636-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...ALB
MARINE...TMG
HYDROLOGY...
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