617
FXUS61 KAKQ 071949
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
349 PM EDT SUN AUG 7 2022
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE
AREA LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A WEAK UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OFF THE GA COAST THIS AFTN, WITH A
TROUGH CO-LOCATED AT THE SURFACE. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE IS
CENTERED WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THERE IS MOISTURE
ADVECTING NORTH BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND THE LOW TO THE
SOUTH WITH ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC AND S-CENTRAL VA.
SEASONALLY HOT AND HUMID THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 80S TO AROUND 90F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S.
THE UPPER LOW GRADUALLY SLIDES TO THE SW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST.
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. PARTLY CLOUDY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT, WARM, AND HUMID WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS TUESDAY WITH ONLY
A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE NW PIEDMONT, AND
POTENTIALLY INTERIOR NE NC ALSO. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 19-20C
SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S,
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S YIELDING HEAT INDICES IN THE MID
90S TO NEAR 100F.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...
WARM AND HUMID MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE AND WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THE UPPER RIDGE STILL
PREVAILS TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A 20-30% CHC OF AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND INTO CENTRAL VA. HOTTER
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S AND LOCALLY MID 90S, WITH
HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S. CONTINUED WARM AND
HUMID TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER
THE PIEDMONT, TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN WEDNESDAY AND A MORE POTENT UPPER TROUGH DIGS
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHC OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH POPS RANGING FROM 20-30% SE TO
50-70% NW. FORECAST HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER TO LOCALLY
MID 90S, WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY 100-104F, WITH SOME
READINGS AROUND 105F POSSIBLE FROM THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY
THROUGH SE VA AND PORTIONS OF NE NC.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION. 40-60% POPS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING, WITH POPS THEN RANGING FROM 20-30% NW TO 50-70% SE BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS
FOR THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY AS
GEFS/EPS EACH DEPICT A NEARLY -2 ST DEV UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE MID- ATLANTIC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A DRIER
AIRMASS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
FORECAST HIGHS THURSDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, MID
80S FRIDAY, LOWER TO MID 80S SATURDAY, AND MID 80S SUNDAY. LOWS
THURSDAY MORNING ARE PRIMARILY 70-75F, 65-70F FRIDAY MORNING,
THEN LOWER TO MID 60S (UPPER 60S FAR SE) SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
MORNINGS, WITH SOME UPPER 50S POSSIBLE IN THE NW PIEDMONT.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST AS OF 18Z.
MEANWHILE, THERE IS AN UPPER LOW AND WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE
GA/SC COAST AND THIS IS SPREADING SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. SCT-BKN CU WITH BASES AROUND 4KFT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG
WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY A FEW TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE PROBABILITY OF A DIRECT IMPACT TO A GIVEN
TERMINAL IS LOW, BUT PHF/ORF HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF A BRIEF
SHOWER/TSTM THROUGH ~21Z. THE WIND IS GENERALLY S OR SW 8-10KT.
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND VFR TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT SSW
WIND. MAINLY DRY AND VFR MONDAY. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE SSW
8-12KT WITH FEW-SCT AFTN CU.
DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS AT RIC. THERE IS A
HIGHER PROBABILITY OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW.
THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH S OF THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
DRIER AIR ARRIVING FROM THE NW.
MARINE
AS OF 350 PM EDT SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS AFTN WITH 10-15 KT SSW
WINDS OVER THE WATERS. PREVAILING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH
REMAINS OFFSHORE. PREVAILING SSW WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVG LESS
THAN 15 KT THOUGH LIKELY BECOMING A TOUCH HIGHER THIS EVENING
AND MONDAY EVENING (WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS LASTING
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT TODAY/MON). A FEW GUSTS TO
20 KT ARE LIKELY DURING THESE TIMES, BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
FREQUENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT SCAS. FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
MIDWEEK, WAVES WILL MAINLY BE 1-2 FT...MAYBE 3 FT AT TIMES ON
PORTIONS OF THE CHES BAY. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT (PERHAPS
UP TO 4 FT 20NM OFFSHORE OF THE MD COASTLINE). A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC WATERS TUE-WED...THEN CROSSES
THE LOCAL WATERS BY THU (AFTERNOON)...WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
MORE IN THE WAY OF TSTMS. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY ANY
TSTM. RIGHT NOW...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TUE-THU. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
WATERS ON FRI (WHICH COULD BE A BIT STRONGER...BUT WILL KEEP
WINDS BELOW SCA CRITERIA IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW).
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ERI
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