878
FXUS61 KAKQ 041108
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
608 AM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTERIOR NE NC TO
PORTIONS OF HAMPTON ROADS FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH
TONIGHT. NOT EVERYWHERE IN THE ADVISORY AREA WILL LIKELY SEE 1"+
TOTALS, BUT A ~50 MILE WIDE BAND OF 1-2" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE
FROM INTERIOR NE NC TO HAMPTON ROADS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, WITH A ~50 MILE WIDE
BAND OF 1-2" OF SNOW POSSIBLE, MOST PROBABLE SOMEWHERE FROM
INTERIOR NE NC TO CHESAPEAKE/VA BEACH.
2) A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR BRINGS SHARPLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 210 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT. SNOW
AMOUNTS REMAIN SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE, WITH A ~50 MILE WIDE
BAND OF 1-2" OF SNOW POSSIBLE, MOST PROBABLE SOMEWHERE FROM
INTERIOR NE NC TO CHESAPEAKE/VA BEACH.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS CROSSING THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
LIGHT PRECIPITATION (MAINLY RAIN) HAS BEEN FALLING THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS, TOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON THE MD
EASTERN SHORE BETWEEN NOW AND 4 AM.
THE FRONT FROM THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
BECOMES (TEMPORARILY) SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TODAY.
ANOTHER TRAILING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. IN RESPONSE, WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THAT FRONT BEFORE TRACKING OFFSHORE OF THE NC COAST BY
EARLY THURSDAY AM. THE 00Z MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
SOMEWHAT SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE, BUT THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT IN A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP ACROSS S/SE VA AND NE NC FROM EARLY THIS
EVENING THROUGH PART OF TONIGHT. AGAIN, THE AMPLITUDE OF THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING HOW FAR NORTH THE PRECIP
GETS (AND HOW INTENSE IT IS AS WELL). AREAS NORTH OF A LUNENBURG-
PETERSBURG-WILLIAMSBURG LINE LIKELY SEE LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIP AFTER THIS MORNING. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TO
DETERMINE WHETHER THERE WILL BE A NARROW (~50 MILE WIDE) SWATH OF 1-
2" SNOW TOTALS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. IF THAT
DOES OCCUR, DETERMINING EXACT LOCATION IS NOT A SURE THING GIVEN HOW
NARROW WE EXPECT THE AREA OF SNOW TO BE.
WEAK LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL BE ONGOING TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40F. IT MAY VERY WELL BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY-OVERCAST SKIES. PRECIP IS EXPECTED MOVE BACK INTO
SOUTHERN VA/NE NC DURING THE AFTN-EARLY EVENING. P-TYPE WILL
INITIALLY BE RAIN, BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 6 PM-2 AM. PRECIP SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW ACROSS ALL AREAS (INCLUDING NE NC) TONIGHT, THOUGH ACCUMS MAY
BE TOUGH TO COME BY CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND (I.E. EDENTON TO
CURRITUCK COUNTY) WHERE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO DROP BELOW FREEZING UNTIL
AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. MOST OF THE MODELS (ASIDE FROM THE GFS/GEFS)
SHOW A ZONE OF MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW. SEVERAL MODELS STILL TRY TO DEPICT LIGHT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC WHICH IS UNLIKELY IN THIS
PATTERN AND NOT SUPPORTED BY A CLOSER LOOK AT MODEL SOUNDINGS.
THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A BIT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AS PRECIP ENDS AND
WE LOSE SATURATION FROM 700-500MB. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLEET MIXED
IN WITH SNOW FOR A FEW HRS ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NE NC, BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO NOT MENTION ANY FREEZING RAIN AT THIS TIME. TEMPS SHOULD
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S TONIGHT WHEN THE PRECIP IS
FALLING (GUIDANCE SHOWS COLDER TEMPS DURING THE PRECIP BUT OFTEN
OVERESTIMATES THAT INITIAL PUSH OF STRONGER CAA). MOST OF THE CAMS
AS WELL AS GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES SHOW A BAND OF 1-2" ACROSS FAR SE
VA AND INTERIOR NE NC. THE 00Z/04 GLOBAL ENSEMBLES (ASIDE FROM THE
GEFS) CONTINUE TO SHOW 40-60% PROBS FOR 1" OF SNOW WITH LITTLE TO NO
3" PROBS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. THIS ASSUMES A 10:1 RATIO
WHICH MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE, ESPECIALLY IN THE 1-2 HRS AFTER THE
INITIAL CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. WHILE THERE IS UNCERTAINTY, WENT AHEAD
WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND SE VA FROM
EMPORIA TO NORFOLK/NEWPORT NEWS/HAMPTON/VA BEACH. AND DID NOT
INCLUDE CHOWAN TO CURRITUCK GIVEN THAT TEMPS LIKELY DON'T FALL
ENOUGH TO GET APPRECIABLE ACCUMS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THOSE
COUNTIES. OF COURSE THIS FORECAST COULD DEFINITELY CHANGE EVEN TODAY
GIVEN THE (VERY) SMALL SCALE NATURE OF THE POTENTIAL SNOW. ALSO TO
REITERATE, A SLIGHTLY MORE OR LESS AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE COULD EASILY
MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LITTLE TO NO SNOW ANYWHERE AND 2"+. SO
IT'S STILL NOT A SURE THING EVEN THOUGH AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
(AND FULLY EXPECT THAT NOT EVERYWHERE IN THE ADVISORY AREA SEES 1"+
TOTALS).
KEY MESSAGE 2...A CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR BRINGS SHARPLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
AS WELL AS A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT, USHERING IN ANOTHER COLD AIRMASS FOR
THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE
AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA, WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-64 (AND
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA). GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
HAVE A MEAN OF A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH, WITH NO HIGHER THAN 10-30%
PROBS FOR 1" ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WHILE IT
LIKELY WON'T SNOW EVERYWHERE ON FRIDAY, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER
AIR. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER COLD (THOUGH MAINLY DRY) WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. WHILE MUCH
COLDER THAN NORMAL AREA-WIDE, THE SETUP WILL REALLY FAVOR THE
COLDEST CONDITIONS OVER THE NE WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 20S SAT-SUN,
AS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC SEE HIGHS INTO THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S. WIND CHILL VALUES WORTHY OF COLD WX HEADLINES ARE
LIKELY OVER THE NE BUT MORE UNCERTAIN ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 605 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THIS HOUR (W/ MVFR AT SBY) BUT
DEGRADED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS BY
14-16Z AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. RIC/SBY SHOULD STAY NO
WORSE THAN MVFR BEFORE RISING TO VFR LATER TODAY. ON THE OTHER
HAND, A FEW HOURS WORTH OF IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY AT ECG WHICH MAY STAY
IFR THROUGH THE EVENING). CIGS AT ORF/PHF SHOULD RISE TO MVFR
LATE THIS AFTN, BUT ORF COULD DROP BACK TO IFR DURING THE
EVENING/NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY
ACROSS THE SE TERMINALS (HIGHEST POPS ARE AT ORF/ECG) AS ANOTHER
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. PRECIP LIKELY BEGINS AS A
RAIN/SLEET/SNOW MIX AT PHF/ORF BETWEEN 22-01Z BEFORE CHANGING
TO ALL SNOW BY 02-03Z. PRECIP LIKELY ENDS AT PHF BY 03-04Z BUT
COULD HANG ON AT ORF UNTIL 07-08Z. AT ECG, RAIN IS EXPECTED
BEFORE CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER 04-06Z. IFR VSBYS ARE LIKELY IN
ANY SNOW THIS EVENING-TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NE AND INCREASE TO
~10 KT LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 315 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND FROM THIS EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GALE CONDITIONS AND PERHAPS EVEN STORM CONDITIONS FROM LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD
FRONT.
- LOW WATER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 7 AM TODAY FOR
THE CURRITUCK SOUND.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A STATIONARY FRONT SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THIS WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW RIDING ALONG IT. MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS WINDS SUB-SCA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. A SECOND SURFACE LOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST, ALLOWING FOR STRONGER CAA ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. AS SUCH, EXPECT N/NNE WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ACROSS THE CHES BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND COASTAL
WATER SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE NC COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND WHERE GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, WAVES AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT AND
4-6 FT (HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS) RESPECTIVELY. AS SUCH,
SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS BEGINNING THIS EVENING. WINDS
BECOME N THU, DIMINISHING TO SUB-SCA CRITERIA BY THU NIGHT. HOWEVER,
SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
(PARTICULARLY THE NC COASTAL WATERS) UNTIL FRI MORNING. AS SUCH,
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR THIS AREA. WINDS LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND WITH WIND PROBS
FOR 25 KT GUSTS AVERAGING LESS THAN 40%. ADDITIONALLY, SNOW IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH RAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. RAIN MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW EVEN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. ANY SNOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
REDUCE VISIBILITY.
WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI NIGHT BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL WATERS FRI NIGHT. STRONG CAA IS
EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH NW WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO 30-40
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KT. WIND PROBS FOR SUSTAINED 34 KT WINDS WERE
80-100% ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WITH PROBS FOR 43 KT
GUSTS GENERALLY 80-100% AS WELL. ADDITIONALLY, PROBS FOR 48 KT GUSTS
WERE 40-60%. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN STRONG GALE CONDITIONS
FROM LATE FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN STORM CONDITIONS. WILL NOTE THAT BOTH THE GFS AND EURO HAVE 35-40
KT SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, ADDING FURTHER
CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE WIND PROBS ARE LOWEST ACROSS THE NC
COASTAL WATERS, THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS BOTH HAVE SUSTAINED
GALE CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL. GALE (OR STORM) WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT WITH THE
DECISION TO GO WITH GALE OR STORM WATCHES LIKELY INFLUENCED BY
WHAT THE 12Z MODELS SHOW. HOWEVER, IT IS A BIT TOO EARLY TO
ISSUE THEM AT THE MOMENT GIVEN THAT GALE CONDITIONS DON'T BEGIN
UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE SIXTH PERIOD.
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND COLD TEMPS, MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS
ALSO LIKELY SAT AND SUN. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO POSSIBLE IF
WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND STRONGER. AS SUCH, FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES
OR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS WE GET
CLOSER. ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS, WAVES AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5-7 FT AND 6-10 FT (POTENTIALLY HIGHER)
RESPECTIVELY THIS WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE, THE WATER LEVELS OF THE CURRITUCK SOUND CONTINUE TO SHOW
LOW WATER LEVELS WITH SOME GAUGES SHOWING AROUND TWO FEET BELOW
NORMAL WATER LEVELS. HOWEVER, MOST GAUGES HAVE BEGUN TO SHOW SIGNS
OF IMPROVEMENT. AS SUCH, HAVE EXTENDED THE LOW WATER ADVISORY
THROUGH 7 AM. WILL NOTE THAT GIVEN THE STRONG NW WINDS THIS
WEEKEND, ANOTHER PERIOD OF LOW WATER LEVELS APPEARS LIKELY FOR
THE CURRITUCK SOUND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ012>014-030.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ087-092-093-095>098-524-525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ631-632-634-638-654.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...ERI/LKB
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...RMM
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