959
FXUS61 KAKQ 260946
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
546 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FULL DISCUSSION. NO MAJOR FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TODAY WITH LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED.
2) SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
3) A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT HEAT POSSIBLE BY LATER IN THE WEEK. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 250 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TODAY WITH LOW TO MID 90S EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS TO MID-ALANTIC. IT IS WARMER
THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST TWO MORNINGS WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 70S. HOTTER AND MORE SUMMERLIKE (LOW-MID 90S) TODAY WITH
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL S-SW FLOW. HEAT INDICES ~100F ARE POSSIBLE IN NE
NC, BUT GENERALLY MID/UPPER 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A LOW CHC OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE CAMS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT TSTMS
INITIALLY DEVELOP IN 2 AREAS THIS AFTERNOON: ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TO OUR WEST AND TO OUR SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS. HAVE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN STORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN GIVEN THAT IS
WHERE THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE, WHEREAS THERE WILL BE SLIGHT HEIGHT
RISES ACROSS SRN VA AND NE NC LATER TODAY. THE BEST STORM CHANCES
LOCALLY WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION POTENTIALLY SPREADING E
OR SE DURING THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT BEFORE DIURNAL WEAKENING
OCCURS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NIGHT, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT MOST AREAS PROBABLY STAY DRY TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN SE VA/NE NC.
WITH THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY, A FEW STRONGER TSTMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HIGHLY LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN INCREASING 500MB FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR NW. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
(LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GRADUALLY SHIFTS FROM THE W TO NW OVER THE
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM CLOSER TO THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING-MIDDAY, SCATTERED TO
POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AREA-WIDE FROM
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING AS A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER THE AREA. WITH DECENT W-WNW FLOW ALOFT, SOME
STORM ORGANIZATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE LIKELY
PEAKS DURING THE 4 PM-9 PM TIMEFRAME BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
SATURDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN, A FEW STRONGER TSTMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HOT AND HUMID. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS IS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-64 WHERE SFC HEATING/INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST (TEMPS
RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWER 70S DEW POINTS). SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WX (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA, WITH A MARGINAL RISK NORTH. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS
RATHER LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
HYDRO ISSUES IF CONVECTION COALESCES OVER URBAN AREAS.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT ON SATURDAY, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY HOW MUCH CONVECTION WE SEE, AS THERE
WILL BE LOW CLOUDS AROUND DURING THE MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL
HAVE TO SEE IF CLOUDS OR SHOWERS FROM DECAYING MCSS IMPACT THE AREA
AND INHIBIT SFC HEATING (AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY). IF
MORNING CLOUDS AND/OR SHOWERS PERSIST LONGER OR ARE MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN EXPECTED, THE SEVERE THREAT SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING WOULD LIKELY
DECREASE. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT LESS ON SUNDAY
AND CONFINED MORE TO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA AS THE
FRONT BEGINS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
N-NE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. DRY AND FAIRLY PLEASANT
WEATHER FOR THE END OF JUNE IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY, WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID-UPPER 80S AND NOTICEABLY LOWER HUMIDITY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NNE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAT POSSIBLE BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPPER HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE FROM TUESDAY THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK AS
THE STRONG RIDGE BUILDS E FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A WARMING TREND, THOUGH STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN VERY
LOW FROM MON-WED DUE TO SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE
AND NO FORCING MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THU/FRI, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY PRECIP IS LOW.
AFTER SEASONABLE TEMPS TUESDAY, A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100F POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY (ESPECIALLY
IF THE RIDGE BUILDS FARTHER EAST TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF/EPS SHOWS). IT APPEARS AS IF THERE IS A DECENT
CHANCE FOR 105F+ HEAT INDICES ACROSS A DECENT PORTION OF THE AREA
BY LATE NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 545 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, WITH S-SW WINDS OF
5-10 KT. MAINLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING, BUT
SCT CU WITH BASES AROUND 5 KFT AGL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AREA-WIDE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT POPS ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION THIS
IN THE TAFS ATTM. THE HIGHEST STORM CHANCES WILL BE TO THE NW OF
RIC AND SBY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY PERSIST TONIGHT,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IS LOW. HOWEVER, COULD SEE SOME MVFR TO
IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT AM AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A BETTER CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ON SATURDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, AND LOW-END SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY (MAINLY S/SE). PREVAILING CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR OUTSIDE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN CONVECTION. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MARINE
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE TODAY AND AGAIN
SATURDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT.
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATES SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL
OFF THE SE COAST TO BERMUDA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH WEAK LOW
PRESSURE N OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN A BIT
ELEVATED, BUT GUSTS ARE ONLY 20 KT AT MOST SO HAVE ALLOWED THE
SCAS IN THE BAY TO EXPIRE. SSW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT THIS
MORNING, BACKING TO THE SSE LATE THIS AFTN OVER THE BAY. WAVES
WILL GENERALLY BE 1-2 FT, WITH 2-3 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN. WINDS
THEN VEER AROUND TO THE SW ON SATURDAY 10-15 KT AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT, TURNING
WINDS TO THE NNE POST- FRONTAL SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, CAA CONTINUES TO LOOK MINIMAL BEHIND THIS FRONT, AND
ACCORDINGLY EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AT THIS
TIME. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTN
INTO THIS EVENING, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. ANY STORMS WILL
LIKELY REQUIRE MWSS/SMWS ISSUANCES AS NEEDED.
A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK WILL LIKELY REMAIN THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST, THE LACK OF
SHORE-NORMAL FLOW, AND SHORTER PERIOD WAVES. WITH FLOW TURNING
TO A MORE SHORE-NORMAL ORIENTATION SUNDAY, A MODERATE RIP
CURRENT RISK HAS BEEN MAINTAINED FOR EASTERN SHORE BEACHES
SUNDAY, THOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE INCREASING
NE WINDS SO CONFIDENCE IN THIS SETUP IS NOT GREAT AT THIS POINT.
MONDAY WILL HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR MODERATE RIPS AREA-
WIDE WITH 9-10 SECOND PERIODS AND EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...LKB/MAM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page