352
FXUS61 KAKQ 052332
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
732 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER AND THE CURRITUCK SOUND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A RESULT OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
BREEZY WINDS.
2) A COLD FRONT BRINGS BENEFICIAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO
THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 335 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A RESULT OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
BREEZY WINDS.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTH CENTRAL CONUS
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA IS CAUSED BY STRONG LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS BREEZY SW WINDS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE PEAKING CURRENTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DRY AIR OVER THE AREA HAS ALLOWED FOR RH
VALUES IN THE 20S AWAY FROM THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AN INCREASED
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING
BASED ON THESE CONDITIONS. THE WARM AIR WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S WITH INCREASING CLOUDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT BRINGS BENEFICIAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY, CROSSING THE AREA DURING THE THURSDAY MORNING TIMEFRAME.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY, THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA,
WITH ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES ACROSS THE SE. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE THAN ON THURSDAY AND WILL LIKELY
ACCUMULATE TO ~0.10 DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY, AS
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER, WITH TEMPS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL, THE QPF TREND HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TOTAL QPF WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM ~0.50" IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO 0.75-
1.00" FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF. NE NC AND INTERIOR SE VA HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCE OF SEEING TOTAL CLOSER TO 1.00". THERE MAY BE A FEW
STORMS, BUT WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY FROM THE TIMING OF THE FROPA,
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE STORMS. A STRONGER STORM IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY IF THE FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA SLOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY BEING MODELED, THOUGH THE
MAJORITY OF THE CAMS/MODELS HAVE THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE FRONT AND RAIN CHANCES, HIGHS ON THURSDAY
WILL BE COOLER IN THE MID 60S TO THE NORTH AND LOWER 70S TO THE
SOUTH. FRIDAY'S TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR IN THE UPPER 60 TO LOWER 70S
WITH LESS CLOUDS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND
BACK TO THE 80S. THERE MAY BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAINFALL SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT MODELS ARE NOT VERY ENTHUSED. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED AS OF 00Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFFSHORE. THE WIND WAS SSW 12-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT UNDER
FEW-SCT CIRRUS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
06/00Z TAF PERIOD. THE WIND WILL REMAIN SSW 10-15KT OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS ~20KT. CIRRUS CLOUDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT IS SLOW TO
APPROACH FROM THE NW. THEREFORE, A SW WIND WILL REMAIN BREEZY
INCREASING TO ~15KT WITH GUSTS ~25KT. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER
INCREASES DURING THE DAY. THERE IS A MINIMAL CHC OF LIGHT
SHOWERS FROM RIC TO SBY MID-MORNING TO EARLY AFTN, BUT THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT ON CIGS/VSBY.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING, WITH A
HIGHER PROB FOR SHOWERS, A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS, AND MORE
WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY,
WITH ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE W SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 250 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER AND THE CURRITUCK
SOUND.
- GUSTY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WED THROUGH THU AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES LOCAL WATERS. ADDITIONAL SCAS POSSIBLE.
SW/S WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME S LATER THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO 20-25
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE
VA/NC BORDER AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. AS SUCH, SCAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CHES BAY, RIVERS, AND NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED CONFIDENCE
IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER (FARTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED) AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE CURRITUCK SOUND FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. AS SUCH, HAVE EXPANDED THE SCAS TO INCLUDED THESE
AREAS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NC COASTAL WATERS, SO HAVE LEFT THEM OUT.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO WED AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDED LOWER FOR WINDS ACROSS
THE CHES BAY WED AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, HAVE HELD OFF ON EXTENDING THE
SCAS BEYOND EARLY WED AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS THE
ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUING UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CHES BAY,
AND THEREFORE HAVE EXTENDED SCAS UNTIL 1 PM WED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL. IF WINDS DO NOT DIMINISH AS QUICKLY AS SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS, SCAS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER INTO THE DAY.
SCAS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
(NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND) THROUGH 10 PM WED DUE TO THE COMBINATION
OF LINGERING GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT.
THE FRONT FINALLY PASSES OVER LOCAL WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BRINGING WITH IT RAIN AND A WIND SHIFT. WINDS TURN TO THE
N BEHIND THE FRONT THU, WITH A BRIEF SURGE TO 15-20 KT POSSIBLE. AS
SUCH, SCAS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH LATE THU
AFTERNOON AS THE CAA WANES.
WAVES AND SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT AND 4-6 FT RESPECTIVELY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WAVES AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WED INTO
WED NIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>637-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ639-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
DISCUSSION...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ/KMC
MARINE...AC/RMM
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