185
FXUS61 KAKQ 240631
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
231 AM EDT SAT OCT 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
2) ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NUISANCE
TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
NORTHERN NY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT, THE FLOW IS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED BETWEEN STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND LOW
HEIGHTS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAKENING CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
NOTED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SPREADS EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME ONSHORE/NE, ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO INCREASE BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE RELATIVE THICKEST CLOUDS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SE US COAST. THE COMPRESSED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TEND TO KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST
THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA TONIGHT BUT NORTHERN AND NW SECTIONS SHOULD
SEE LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO PATCHY FROST BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY. HELD OFF ON ANY FROST ADVISORIES AFTER
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE TYPICALLY COOLER
SHELTERED SPOTS IN THE PIEDMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR ZERO
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL RETURNING TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AM AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AM HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR,
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN THE PIEDMONT. HAVE CONTINUED TO
UNDERCUT NBM AND SOME OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE VALUES BY
SEVERAL DEGREES EXCEPT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FORECAST.
THE REMAINS OF JOSEPHINE HAVE PUSHED WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA,
BUT WITH SWELL STILL PROPAGATING TOWARD THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH, TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN 1.5-2FT ABOVE NORMAL.
THESE ANOMALIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY AND/OR SLOWLY FALL TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THEREFORE, PRIMARILY NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS,
PRIMARILY FOR THE TIDAL RAPPAHANNOCK, SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE TIDAL
POTOMAC, THE UPPER YORK, AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHES. BAY.
NUISANCE FLOODING MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS SWELL
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT (BUT WEAKER)
ONSHORE FLOW, AS WELL AS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES AS WE APPROACH FULL MOON.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 720 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z/24 TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE NE. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ~5,000 FT REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREAS, WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NE TONIGHT ~10 KT
AT ORF/ECG AND ~5 KT AT RIC/SBY/PHF. CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN AGAIN
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK: VFR PREVAILS SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST WINDS ARE OUT
OF THE E-NE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL MAX/MIN
EXPECTED.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NE WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND DECREASING SOME MONDAY.
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS, WITH ELEVATED SEAS
LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
1034MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNING. THE IS
DRIVING WINDS NE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT FOR THE OCEAN.
WINDS OVER THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES WERE GENERALLY 15 TO 20 KT
WITH 15 KT ON CURRITUCK SOUND. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED WITH 5-6FT
IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND 6-8FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS AND
COASTAL WATERS OF NC. WAVES WERE 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY
(LOCALLY HIGHER AT THE MOUTH).
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SSE INTO NY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT NE/ENE FLOW
WITH DECREASING WINDS LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH TODAY. SCAS
WILL EXPIRE FOR MOST OF THE BAY THIS MORNING THOUGH WINDS WILL
REMAIN ENE AT 15 KT TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 KT OVER THE
LOWER BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE
NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS.
NE WINDS INCREASE SOME EARLY SUNDAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER BAY AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH
OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25
KT EARLY SUNDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN
DECREASING NW WIND. HOWEVER, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LINGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. THEREFORE, AN ENE
WIND WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SEAS. SCAS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE
MOUTH OF THE CHES. BAY, AND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NOW (AND
POTENTIALLY LONGER) FOR THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
OUTLOOK...NE WINDS MAY INCREASE SOME AGAIN MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTH AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW WELL
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NE IRREGARDLESS THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ076-078-085-086-089-090-521-522-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR VAZ083-084-
097>100-518-520-523-525-529>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ632-
633-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...KMC/RHR
MARINE...AJZ/JAO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page