174
FXUS61 KAKQ 262345
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
745 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST, UPDATED DISCUSSION, AND
ADDED CLIMATE SECTION FOR TODAY.
MARINE UPDATES: COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
COUNTIES ALONG THE TIDAL JAMES AND YORK RIVERS AS TIDAL ANOMALIES OF
0.5 FT ARE EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT HIGH TIDE CYCLES. A NEW HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE VA & NC BEACHES AS WAVES ARE NEAR
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE 8FT RIGHT ALONG THE SHORELINE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LIGHT RAIN PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS AFTN, BUT
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY, COOL, AND BREEZY INTO THIS EVENING. GRADUAL
CLEARING OVERNIGHT, BECOMING MILDER WITH MORE SUNSHINE MONDAY.
2) THERE ARE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER,
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT RAIN PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA LATE THIS
AFTN, BUT REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY, COOL, AND BREEZY INTO THIS
EVENING. GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT, BECOMING MILDER WITH MORE
SUNSHINE MONDAY.
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SEEN SPINNING ON WV SATELLITE
IMAGERY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, WITH A SECONDARY MORE SHEARED OUT
SHORTWAVE LAGGING BACK OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SE CONUS. LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS SITUATED OFFSHORE, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WELL TO OUR N STRENGTHENING AND BECOMING CENTERED OVER
ATLANTIC CANADA OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS COLD AIR DAMMING
SETUP HAS LED TO A VERY COOL AND CLOUDY DAY ACROSS THE FA, WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S (15-20 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE) WITH A BREEZY NE WIND GUSTING TO ~30 MPH NEAR
THE COAST. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FOR A POTENTIAL RECORD LOW MAX
TIE AT SBY TODAY. OTHERWISE, A FEW VERY LIGHT SPOTTY AREAS OF
RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE MOVING SOUTH INTO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND, BUT RAIN
IS COMING TO AN END AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH.
SFC PRESSURE RISES AND DRIER AIR CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH TONIGHT, LEADING TO A CLEARING SKY FOR INLAND AREAS, BUT
ON AVERAGE, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY CLOSER TO THE COAST (AT
LEAST IN SE VA AND NE NC). SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING OVERNIGHT TO
KEEP ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT AT A MINIMUM. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND 40F IN THE PIEDMONT TO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S NEAR THE
COAST IN THE SE. THE MOIST LOW- LEVELS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCOUR
OUT COMPLETELY ON MONDAY, THOUGH A RESIDUAL CAD WILL STILL
LIKELY BE IN PLACE WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN OVER ATLANTIC CANADA.
THEREFORE, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOW CLOUDS LINGER NEAR
THE COAST. WENT A LITTLE BELOW THE NBM HIGHS CLOSE TO THE COAST,
GIVEN THIS PLUS THE BRISK ONSHORE FLOW. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE,
EXPECT MILDER TEMPS FOR THE AREA AND HIGHS RANGE FROM THE LOWER
60S ALONG THE COAST TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WELL INLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE ARE MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER,
DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA TUE-WED, EVENTUALLY DROPPING SE TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, TRANSIENT LOW
PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL BRING A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY LATER IN THE DAY, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE MINIMAL AND POPS ARE ONLY 30-50% ALONG/W OF I-95, AND
LOWER TO THE EAST. A POTENTIALLY MORE SUBSTANTIAL SLUG OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EMERGES FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND APPROACHES OUR AREA, AND
POPS FROM THE NBM ARE NOW 70-90% WITH THIS FEATURE. GLOBAL
MODELS DIAGNOSE SOME INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY
SO THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO A POSSIBILITY IN THE AFTN/EVENING.
THE LATEST ENSEMBLE PROBS FOR 0.50"+ OF RAINFALL ARE IN THE
30-60% RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SO THIS WILL BE
WELCOME EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BY NO MEANS BE A DROUGHT BUSTER.
MAINLY DRY WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THU-FRIDAY. SPECIFICS
BEYOND THIS TIME ARE UNCERTAIN BUT CHANCE POPS ARE IN PLACE
AGAIN INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND AS AN ADDITIONAL
WAVE OF MOISTURE PASS THROUGH.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...
MVFR STRATUS WITH BASES BETWEEN 1500 TO 3000 FT WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER INTO THE NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT THE SE TAF SITES (ORF,
PHF, ECG). GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH RIC AND SBY RETURNING TO
VFR BY ~03Z. STRATUS LINGERS INTO THE MORNING (~10-12Z) AT ORF
AND PHF, AND POTENTIALLY THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AT
ECG. VFR/MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY INLAND, STAYING
MOSTLY SUNNY NEAR THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD (GUSTY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST).
OUTLOOK: THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MAINLY LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH A BETTER SHOT OF MORE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL WEDNESDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE MINIMAL IF THEY
DEVELOP AT ALL TUESDAY, BUT ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
MARINE
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THEN BY TONIGHT, WILL LIKELY BE TRANSITIONED
INTO STRONG SCA AS WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
- SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE BAY, AND THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AS SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED
- NUISANCE TO LOW-END MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND TIDAL YORK AND JAMES
RIVERS. UP TO 1 FOOT OF INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IS POSSIBLE.
WEATHER ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE
EASTERN SHORE. BEHIND THE LOW, STRONG NNE TO NE WINDS PERSIST
BRINGING STRONG SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BAY, RIVERS, SOUND, AND NC
COASTAL WATERS. WHILE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE CONTINUING. LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE
SHOWING WINDS SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KT
ACROSS THE SCA ZONES AND 25-30KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 KT ACROSS
THE GALE WARNINGS. SEAS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS ALL WATERS DUE TO THE
WINDS AND FETCH. SEAS ARE BETWEEN 3-5 FT ACROSS THE BAY WITH 6FT
SEAS ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. WHILE ACROSS THE OCEAN SEAS ARE
READING BETWEEN 6-9 FT NEARSHORE AND 9-12FT WELL OFFSHORE. IN
ADDITION, TO THE 6-9 FT NEARSHORE HIGH SURF IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MD
BEACHES AND ACCOMACK COUNTY THROUGH THIS EVENING. WHILE ACROSS VA
AND THE NC BEACHES A NEW HIGH SURF HAS BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THE WINDS
INCREASING OUT OF THE NE CAUSING WAVES TO INCREASE NEAR AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE 8FT RIGHT ALONG THE BEACH. THE REASON NORTHAMPTON VA IS LEFT
OUT IS DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND. IT IS NOT OPTIMAL TO
CREATE 8FT WAVES TO DIRECTLY IMPACT THE SHORELINE. HENCE THE REASON
THEY ARE NOT UNDER A HIGH SURF.
THROUGH TONIGHT AN INTO TOMORROW, THE WINDS ACROSS THE OCEAN ZONES
NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY AS THE LOW EXITS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN IN SCA CONDITIONS AND THE
GALES WILL LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH STRONG SCA. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE NE BETWEEN 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KT. SEAS ACROSS
THE BAY WILL LOWER SLIGHTLY WITH 3-4FT ACROSS THE BAY WITH PERHAPS 5-
6FT REMAINING ACROSS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY DUE TO THE ONGOING SWELL
COMING FROM THE OCEAN. WHILE ACROSS THE OCEAN SEAS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED DUE TO THE SWELL AND FETCH WITH SEAS BETWEEN 6-9 FT
NEARSHORE AND 9-12 FT WELL OFFSHORE. BY TOMORROW, THE SCA SHOULD
FINALLY BE ABLE TO DROP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BAY, BUT THE MOUTH
AND LOWER BAY MAY PERSIST DUE TO WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED. ACROSS THE OCEAN THE SCA WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK AS THE SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO ONGOING SWELL AND A
POSSIBLE SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE POSSIBLE SYSTEM
DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK COULD ALSO POTENTIALLY BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCA ACROSS THE BAY.
COASTAL FLOODING....
IN REGARDS TO THE COASTAL FLOODING POTENTIAL, TIDAL ANOMALIES OF 0.5
TO 1 FT ABOVE NORMAL STEADILY INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY, DUE
TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE EXITING NE OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN SHORE. THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASINGLY STRONG NNE FLOW
TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING WAVE ACTION/INCREASING SEAS
(DUE TO BOTH WIND WAVES AND SWELL). TIDAL SITES IN THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IMPACTS THIS EVENING INTO MONDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WITH HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST A COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE TIDEWATER AREA.
IN ADDITION, COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS
HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE TIDAL JAMES AND
YORK RIVERS DUE TO 0.5' FT OF INUNDATION ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
CLIMATE
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE SO FAR TODAY 4/26 HAS ONLY BEEN 50F AT SBY,
WHICH WOULD TIE A RECORD LOW MAX (50 IN 1992) FOR THE DATE IF
IT STANDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT LST.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ097-525-
528>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ632>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ635>637-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-
656-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ680-682-684-
686.
DISCUSSION...LKB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...HET/MAM
CLIMATE...LKB
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