632  
FXUS61 KAKQ 150030  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
830 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TONIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA  
ON SUNDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT OVER NC SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 815 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT IS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE  
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING AND THE SHOWERS AND STORMS  
ALONG THE FRONT AREA ALSO WANING AND DISSIPATING WITH THE  
HEATING OF THE DAY GONE. THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL ALSO BE SLIDING  
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. SO HAVE  
SLOWED THE ONSET OF POPS IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA AND  
WITH THE LACK OF FORCING SCALED THE POPS BACK TO JUST SLIGHT  
CHANCE.  
 
PREV DISCUSSION...  
HIGH PRESSURE, WELL TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD,  
CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING LOCAL WINDS  
TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW WEAK RETURNS ARE SHOWING  
UP ON RADAR NEAR AND NORTH OF THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AND WILL  
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT.  
 
A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT IS POISED TO THE NW OF THE REGION AND WILL  
APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG  
DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT  
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER WITH PRECIP ALONG THE  
FRONT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE  
POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO RIGHT AROUND 70 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT DROPS NW TO SE SUNDAY MORNING,  
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS PRIOR TO NOON. INSTABILITY AND  
UPPER DYNAMICS ARE LACKING WITH THIS BOUNDARY BUT DID INCLUDE A  
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS THE FRONT NEARS  
THE VA/NC BORDER REGION DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
THE FRONT SHOULD SLOW ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS AND WILL WASH OUT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO  
EARLY MONDAY. LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR  
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN  
THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S  
(COOLEST N AND NW).  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE, RESULTING IN  
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. MID  
60S AND LOW 70S FOR LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE  
NORTH SENDS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH  
NE WINDS IN ITS WAKE. SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF  
THE THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE MODESTLY  
COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUDS, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S  
ACROSS MD EASTERN SHORE TO MID 80S ACROSS THE SW PIEDMONT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
STRONG AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS THAT TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO  
WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AND TURN OUT TO SEA WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION.  
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION  
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT WELL SOUTH OF  
THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEGINNING  
ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80  
ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS DIP  
BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST ON BOTH WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARMING TREND BEGINS AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS  
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION, HIGHS ON FRIDAY  
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 80S WITH MID TO UPPER 80S BY  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
OVERALL SEEING MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS  
EVENING AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS STILL TRYING TO EXIT THE  
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. SATELLITE SHOW SOME PATCHES  
OF 3K - 4K FT CLOUDS STILL MOVING THROUGH IN ADVANCE OF THE  
FRONT ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER CIRRUS AS WELL. BUT OVERALL MUCH OF  
THE AREA IS GENERALLY SEEING CLEAR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE  
EVENING. THE SFC FRONT WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT  
AND SHOULD REACH THE AREA NW OF RIC AND SBY AROUND 12Z, BUT THE  
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT IS WEAK AND THE FRONT MAY DISSOLVE  
BEFORE CLEARING NE NC. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN  
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND SOME DECOUPLING WITH THE LIGHT FLOW  
COULD PRODUCE SOME MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CEILINGS FOR RIC AND  
SBY OVERNIGHT.  
 
EXPECT CEILINGS TO RISE ONCE THE HEATING OF THE DAY BEGINS ON  
SUNDAY AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW PICKS UP IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC  
FRONT. HAVE CEILINGS GETTING BACK TO VFR BY 14Z - 15Z. DID NOT  
MENTION ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AT THIS POINT WITH THE LOW  
CHANCE IN THE FORECAST, BUT WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT AND LACK OF  
FORCING NOT ANTICIPATING LOTS OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON  
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE IN SE VA AND NE NC PERHAPS  
IMPACTING ORF AND ECG.  
 
OUTLOOK...NOT ANTICIPATING ANY WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS SUNDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA IS RESULTING IN AN EASTERLY FLOW  
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN 5-10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL  
15 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES IN THE BAY RUNNING 1-2  
FT AND SEAS 4-5 FT. SCA CONTINUES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH 10Z  
SUNDAY, AT THAT POINT SEAS WILL HAVE SUBSIDED TO 2-4 FT AND REMAIN  
THERE THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA ON SUNDAY BUT  
WILL LIKELY WASH OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY BUT  
SHOULD MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH TO SHIFT WINDS TO N/NE FOR SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS REMAIN 5-10 KTS.  
 
ATTENTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK TURNS TO HUMBERTO. WHILE THE TRACK  
KEEPS THE SYSTEM WELL AWAY FROM OUR REGION OFF THE SE COAST, A TIGHT  
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP THANKS TO HUMBERTO AND STRONG HIGH  
PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS COULD RESULT IN  
EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 KTS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND  
SEAS POTENTIALLY BUILDING TO 5-8 FT, AND WAVES OF 2-3 FT IN THE  
SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR  
ATLANTIC BEACHES. SUNDAY THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP  
CURRENTS FOR SOUTHERN BEACHES INCLUDING HAMPTON ROADS AND THE  
NORTHERN OUTER BANKS, AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR  
THE MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA EASTERN SHORE BEACHES.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
KDOX RADAR REMAINS OFFLINE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE DUE TO AN EQUIPMENT  
ISSUE. UPDATES WILL BE PASSED ALONG AS THEY BECOME AVAILABLE.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-  
656-658.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...RHR  
NEAR TERM...ESS  
SHORT TERM...RHR  
LONG TERM...AJB  
AVIATION...ESS  
MARINE...CMF  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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