978
FXUS61 KAKQ 310048
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
848 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY LATER FRIDAY BEHIND A SEASONALLY
STRONG COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE. DRY WEATHER
WITH LOWER HUMIDITY AND COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AS OF 845 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD AND DRY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S.
CALM AND QUIET WX THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS SITUATED TO OUR N/NW, EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CONUS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE. THE FLOW ALOFT IS WESTERLY WITH A
DECAYING RIDGE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE GA/FL COAST AND A BROAD
TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA. CONVECTION HAS REMAINED W OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND EXPECT CONTINUING DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG OVER
THE PIEDMONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER MILD NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE MID 70S, UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 250 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT.
- SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY, BUT DECREASE BY SATURDAY.
FOR TOMORROW, PRIMARILY ZONAL FLOW WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA BEFORE STALLING
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A HOT AND
HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE BUILDING INTO PLACE WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THIS WILL
CAUSE HEAT INDEX VALUES AGAIN TO BE BETWEEN 100 AND 104 ACROSS
THE AREA, THOUGH THIS IS JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW, THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE
INCONSISTENT ON THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF
THIS FORECAST UPDATE THE BEST TIMING WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON TO
EVENING HOURS OF TOMORROW. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS
MAYBE SEVERE AS ML CAPE VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000
J/KG AND STRONG LOWER- LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE WEAK BULK SHEAR OF 25KT (NORMAL IN THIS
SUMMERTIME PATTERN) THAT WILL HELP KEEP THE SEVERITY OF STORMS
DOWN. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS HEAVY RAIN FALL COULD POTENTIALLY CAUSE A
RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AT THIS TIME A FLOOD WATCH HAS
NOT BEEN ISSUED DUE TO THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
AREA.
BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF CANADA AND HELPING TO
REINFORCE THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
BY THE AFTERNOON OF FRIDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER THE AREA
CAUSING A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. ACROSS THE NORTH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 80S. WHILE TO THE SOUTH
THE AIRMASS WILL BE WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE APPROACHING 100 SOUTH OF
THE FRONT PRIMARILY IN NE NC. THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IT IS YET TRULY
UNCLEAR ON WHERE THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE DUE
TO TWO FACTORS. WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS AND WHERE A POTENTIAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WILL BE LOCATED.
NEVERTHELESS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING OF FRIDAY. SATURDAY THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH
THE AREA AND THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE DIMINISHED.
THE OVERALL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY LOOK TO BE PROMISING
ESPECIALLY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WILL ALSO BE BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WITH WITH ONSHORE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO
30 MPH AT TIMES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 250 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MORE PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
- CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT WILL BE
CENTERED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY THAT
WILL BRING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH DEWS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S. THIS WILL BE SOME MUCH NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES AND THE HUMIDITY BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE TUESDAY AND BEYOND WITH UPPER RIDGING BECOMING SLIGHTLY
MORE AMPLIFIED. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
STORMS, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE PERIOD, WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
LINGERING.
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 735 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. ONE EXCEPTION COULD COME FROM EARLY MORNING FOG BUT
MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS REDUCED VSBY CONFINED TO THE PIEDMONT, AWAY
FROM THE TAF SITES. A LIGHT S WIND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT,
INCREASING TO 5-10 KT A COUPLE HRS AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. SCT
CUMULUS DEVELOP THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
ALONG W/ GRADUALLY THICKENING MID-HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING. AT THIS TIME, THE
BULK OF ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE AFTER 21Z...SO WILL HANDLE (FOR
NOW) WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT RIC AND SBY, WITH SOME REFINEMENT
LIKELY IN FUTURE UPDATES. ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT S/SE TOWARD
PHF/ORF/ECG EVENTUALLY, BUT MOST LIKELY AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK: FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP THU NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
THE PRECIPITATION. AS A COLD FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE AREA, SHOWERS/STORMS
POTENTIALLY LINGER INTO FRIDAY WITH WITH LOCALLY DEGRADED
FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SE VA AND
NE NC TERMINALS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR PREVAILS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 225 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
- SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON
WITH S AND SE WINDS 5-10 KT. WAVES AND SEAS REMAIN NEARLY FLAT AT
AROUND 1 FOOT.
WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING RESULTS IN SOME SEA/BAY BREEZE ENHANCEMENT TO
THE SE WINDS (10-15 KT) LATE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CHES BAY AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
START THE DAY THURSDAY BECOMES SE ~15 KT BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW. LATEST
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A LINE OF STRONGER CONVECTION MOVING INTO
THE WATERS BY TOMORROW EVENING WITH LOCALLY ENHANCED
WINDS/WAVES/SEAS IN AN AROUND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE THREATS WILL BE
COVERED BY MWS/SMWS AS NECESSARY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL
SLOW ITS PROGRESSION THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS, THOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. STRONGER COLD ADVECTION WILL LAG
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BY 6-12 HOURS WITH WINDS BECOMING N AND
EVENTUALLY NE 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT FRIDAY NIGHT. STRONG NE
FLOW CONTINUES WITH WINDS 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE CHES
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND AND 25-30 KT WITH A FEW GUST TO 35 KT POSSIBLE FOR
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ON SATURDAY. LOCAL WIND PROBABILITIES
FOR GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KT INCREASE TO ~20-30% FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
BUT SUSTAINED 34 KT WINDS OR FREQUENT GUSTS ABOVE GALE THRESHOLDS
ARE VERY UNLIKELY THIS TIME OF YEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
PERIOD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST, HOWEVER. WAVES INCREASE TO 3-5 FT
(HIGHEST NEAR THE MOUTH) WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-8 FT DURING THIS
PERIOD. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
WELL INTO SUNDAY WITH SEAS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
LOW RIP CURRENT RISK IS FORECAST FOR ALL AREA BEACHES THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A MODERATE RIP RISK EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS SEAS
BUILD.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/HET
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...AJB/HET
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...RHR
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