441
FXUS61 KAKQ 180255
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
955 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2019
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, AND LIFT NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN
STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH
FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 950 PM EST SUNDAY...
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS FROM COASTAL SRN NC/SC TO NW
GA...WHILE LO PRES WAS FOUND ACROSS THE ERN OH/TN VALLEY W/ ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT ON SW TO OFF THE SE TX COAST. WIDESPREAD RA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. HAD
EARLIER REPORTS OF T WNW OF RIC ASSOCIATED W/ AN ENHANCED PIECE
OF FORCING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOLD GENERALLY STEADY
OR EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE M-U30S NNW TO
THE 40S S AND SE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 350 PM EST SUNDAY...
THIS WAVE PUSHES OFF THE COAST MON MORNING WITH PCPN TAPERING
OFF WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING (LINGERING THE LONGEST IN FAR SE
VA/NE NC). SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. OVERALL, MON SHOULD TURN OUT TO
BE A NICER DAY AND MUCH MILDER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S,
POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN NE NC.
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD MON NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S SE COAST AS STRONG SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. REMAINING DRY, BUT
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUE ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 40S DUE TO NNE FLOW.
LATEST 12Z/17 SUITE OF MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM EJECTING NE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
TUE NIGHT AND TRACKING THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY AS STRONG SFC
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NE CONUS, SLOWLY RETREATING ENE
INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS IT SHOULD BE INITIALLY RATHER COLD TUE
NIGHT/WED MORNING, THIS PATTERN FAVORS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION,
WHILE SE PORTIONS WILL TEND TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN WED
MORNING. EXACT POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH WILL BE KEY
IN HOW LONG COLD AIR CAN STAY IN PLACE. FIRST CUT AT P-TYPE AND
SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE FOR 3-4" OF SNOW IN THE NW WITH
LESS THAN ONE INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SE VA AND NE NC. TYPICAL
BATTLE ZONE WED MORNING WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS METRO RICHMOND.
RATHER WARM MID LEVEL/ H85-H7 THICKNESSES SUGGEST PERIOD FOR ALL
SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO EARLY WED AM, THEN TRANSITIONING TO
SLEET AND POTENTIALLY SOME FREEZING RAIN IN AREAS THAT CAN
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 32F THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN. HAVE A ZONE OF
UP TO 0,10" OF ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHING THIS SCENARIO, AS SLIGHT CHANGES COULD
LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA,
OR HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THE SFC HIGH ENDS UP STRONGER/COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HIGHS WED IN THE MID 30S NW, TO THE
LOWER-MID 50S NE NC.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 350 PM EST SUNDAY...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS
LATE THIS WEEK, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN
THE RESULTING SW FLOW ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM THU
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH LESS COLD AIR IN PLACE (WHEN COMPARED TO
TUE NIGHT-WED), EXPECT THAT PCPN REMAINS IN THE FORM OF RA
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
PERIODS OF RA CONTINUE WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES N AS
THE CAD/WEDGE PATTERN ERODES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY RISING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WED NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE LOW 40S NW WHILE 50S PREVAIL OVER SE VA/NE NC BY SUNRISE
THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU. THIS
MAY GIVE US A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN FROM THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT
(ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64/E OF I-95). HOWEVER, RAIN WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION AGAIN FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE WRN UPPER
TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES/STARTS TO MOVE E. AT THE SAME TIME, A WARM FRONT
LIFTS N TOWARD THE REGION, ALLOWING A CAD/WEDGE PATTERN TO SET UP
OVER THE CWA LATE FRI-SAT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE CWA SAT
NIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO OUR W/NW BUT RAIN CHANCES
CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES FINALLY DECREASE BY SUN NIGHT AS THE AREA OF
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR N AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. STILL ANTICIPATING A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WHILE AS A UPPER LOW
BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS (LEADING TO A PERIOD OF QUIETER
WX).
DESPITE THE RAIN ON THU, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S-LOW 60S IN
MOST AREAS (W/ MID 60S IN SE VA/NE NC). LOWS THU NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID-UPPER 30 N TO THE LOW-MID 40S S. HIGHS FRI WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS. LOWS ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S-LOW 40S FRI NIGHT. HIGHS SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO
AROUND 60F SE. WARMER ON SUN AS FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S-
UPPER 60S (COOLEST N/NW, WARMEST IN NE NC).
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 645 PM EST SUNDAY...
MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FROM RIC-ECG SOUTHWESTWARD (W/ IFR CIGS NOT
TOO FAR SW OF RIC) THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF RA HAS OVERSPREAD THE
NRN HALF OF VA (INCLUDING SOME -RA AT RIC). EXPECT THIS AREA OF RA
TO MOVE INTO SBY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WHILE MISSING THE
SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS TO THE N. WIDESPREAD RA (AND THUS REDUCED
VSBYS) WILL HOLD OFF ACROSS THE SE UNTIL ~03Z OR SO. CIGS SLOWLY
LOWER TO IFR FROM W TO E FROM 02-06Z AS THE RA MOVES IN. IFR (OR
EVEN OCCASIONAL LIFR) CIGS THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. VSBYS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 2-5SM IN THE RAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT BEFORE RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 12-16Z. EXPECT SLOW
IMPROVEMENT MON MORNING, WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AT RIC BY ~12Z.
IFR CIGS MAY HANG ON A COUPLE HOURS LONGER NEAR THE COAST BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING IFR CIGS TO
PREVAIL NEAR THE COAST (ESPECIALLY NEAR ECG) UNTIL MIDDAY, BUT DID
NOT GO THIS FAR W/ PREVAILING IFR IN THE TAFS ATTM. WINDS REMAIN AOB
10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WNW BY LATE
MORNING/AFTN AND MAY GUST TO 20 KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER MON AFTN.
OUTLOOK...PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEK. REMAINING DRY/VFR
MON NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUE, BUT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TUE NIGHT/WED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECT THE REGION. A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY, BUT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY AT
KRIC/KSBY THAN AT KORF/KPHF/KECG WHERE MOST OF THE EVENT LOOKS LIKE
RAIN. PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THU/FRI.
MARINE
AS OF 350 PM EST SUNDAY...
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW E TO SE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND WAVES IN THE BAY 1 TO
2 FEET. A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT
SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM SE TO SW WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15
KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TOMORROW NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. EXPECT NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND NW WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD
TO AROUND 5 FEET OR GREATER, ESPECIALLY OUT 20 NM. AS A RESULT, HAVE
HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL MARINE ZONES MINUS THE
RIVERS. WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
MAKING A BRIEF RETURN TO THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND IMPACTS THE AREA INTO
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.
EQUIPMENT
AKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO A BROKEN PART THAT IS ON ORDER AND
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MON. FTM AND USOS SENT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY
FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...AJB/AJZ
EQUIPMENT...
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