725
FXUS61 KAKQ 170019
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
819 PM EDT FRI OCT 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED TAF/AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z AND UPDATED CLIMATE
SECTION.
WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR VA BEACH/EASTERN CURRITUCK
COUNTY STARTING AT NOON ON SATURDAY. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF HAMPTON ROADS AND AREAS UP THE JAMES
RIVER AS WELL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AS CONFIDENCE IN
A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS INCREASING. OVERALL, THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SATURDAY THOUGH
FORECAST WINDS/WATER LEVELS HAVE INCREASED FROM SUNDAY-TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) GUSTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MUCH COOLER WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.
2) MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH FROST POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
3) THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A
POTENTIAL STRONG COASTAL SYSTEM LINGERING OFFSHORE OR RETROGRADING
BACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.
4) LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT EXPECTED STARTING AS EARLY
AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
LOWER JAMES RIVER WITH EXPANSION OF COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES LIKELY
TO OTHER AREAS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MUCH COOLER WITH STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ON SATURDAY.
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS TRACKING EAST OVER THE ST
LAWRENCE VALLEY, WITH A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID-MS
RIVER VALLEY/MIDWEST. A BROKEN LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
HAVE DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM WV TO CENTRAL PA.
LOCALLY, TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 80S WITH MID 60S DEW PTS.
INSTABILITY IS MEAGER WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MLCAPE. THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE TOWARD THE FA THIS EVENING BEFORE
CROSSING THE AREA TONIGHT. AM STILL EXPECTING A LINE OF SHALLOW
CONVECTION TO CROSS THE AREA WITH THE FRONT, WHICH IS WHAT MOST OF
THE CAMS PREDICT. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR TSTMS IS BETWEEN 7
PM-1 AM. WHILE WIDESPREAD 30-40 MPH GUSTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
LINE, THE NIGHTTIME TIMING AND LIMITED INSTABILITY (MLCAPE ~500
J/KG OR LESS) SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT LOW FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FAR
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MD EASTERN SHORE) WHERE THERE
MAY BE SLIGHTLY BETTER KINEMATICS (THOUGH LESS IN THE WAY OF
THERMODYNAMICS AS SFC HEATING HAS BEEN LESS HERE). TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE 70S WITH A QUICK DROP TO AROUND 60F SHORTLY AFTER THE
FROPA.
THE FRONT MOVES WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE
UPPER TROUGH BECOMES A CLOSED LOW AS IT TRACKS INTO WESTERN VA. A
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THAT TROUGH
AND TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. RAIN LIKELY ENDS BY
MIDDAY INLAND, BUT MAY LINGER THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING
NEAR THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, A SECONDARY, STRONGER SURGE OF CAA
WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING. THEREFORE,
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE ACHIEVED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, WITH
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE MID 50S BY THE AFTERNOON
(AND COULD EVEN FALL TO AROUND 50 WHERE IT IS RAINING). SO, 24
HOUR TEMPERATURE CHANGES COULD BE IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 30-35+
DEGREES FROM THIS AFTERNOON-SATURDAY AFTERNOON! DEEP MIXING IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY N WINDS, WITH GUSTS OF
25 TO 35+ MPH INLAND AND 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR VA BEACH/EASTERN
CURRITUCK STARTING AT NOON SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND, WITH
FROST POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY IN THE PIEDMONT.
STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN THE
COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE OH VALLEY, BUT THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE COAST. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH FORECAST TO BE 1035MB+, KEPT THE
THEME FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND UNDERCUT NBM LOWS BY A FEW
DEGREES IN THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT WHERE DECOUPLING IS MORE PROBABLE
CLOSER TO SUNRISE (LOWS INTO THE MID 30S). DEPENDING ON DEWPOINTS,
AT LEAST PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. CLOSER TO THE COAST,
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. MOSTLY SUNNY SUNDAY
(POTENTIALLY MORE CLOUDS IN THE SE) WITH HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL, IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ADDITIONAL FROST
POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH TEMPERATURES AGAIN DROPPING BACK INTO THE
30S.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR NEXT WEEK
WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG COASTAL SYSTEM LINGERING OFFSHORE OR
RETROGRADING BACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA.
THERE IS STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY AND COOL AS THE LOW
DEEPENS 100-200 MILES EAST OF THE NC COAST WHILE STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH HOW CLOSE THIS COASTAL SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE SHORELINE, THOUGH
MOST OF THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SHOW THE LOW MEANDERING AROUND 100-
200 MILES OFF THE SOUTHERN VA OR NC COAST. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL
HINTS (ESPECIALLY FROM THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND CANADIAN) THAT IT
COULD RETROGRADE BACK TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
A BIT BACK OUT TO SEA BY MID TO LATE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
HAVE INCREASED ON MONDAY (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST) AND HAVE KEPT
AT LEAST SOME POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE
50TH PERCENTILE GFS/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE QPF IS 0.25-1.00" ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY, THOUGH THE EPS HAS NOTICEABLY LESS RAIN.
AGAIN, IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THAT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
AND THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE. BREEZY N TO NE WINDS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. THE WIND ADVISORY FOR VA BEACH/EASTERN CURRITUCK IS
IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED. AS
WINDS BECOME MORE NE SUNDAY/MONDAY, THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED AS WELL. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 4...LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT EXPECTED
STARTING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK. COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE
LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER WITH EXPANSION OF
COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES LIKELY TO OTHER AREAS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
NORTH WINDS TO GALE FORCE WILL ALLOW WATER LEVELS TO BUILD FIRST
OVER THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TIDE ANOMALIES TO BE 2 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE. FORTUNATELY, WE ARE CURRENTLY ON THE
LOW END OF THE TIDE CYCLE. EVEN SO, MODERATE FLOOD STAGE IS FORECAST
AT LYNNHAVEN, JAMESTOWN AND SMITHFIELD WITH THE SUNDAY HIGH TIDE. AS
THE WINDS TURN SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, EXPECT THE ANOMALIES TO BUILD AND IMPACT THE OCEAN
FRONT, AS WELL AS OTHER AREAS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE
BAY. BY MONDAY, MANY SITES SOUTH OF WINDMILL POINT AND ALONG THE
OCEAN FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE INTO MODERATE FLOODING, INCLUDING
SEWELLS PT. LYNNHAVEN, JAMESTOWN AND SMITHFIELD ARE FORECAST TO
MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING ON MONDAY. CONSIDERABLE BEACH EROSION IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 TO 15 FEET. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
WIND DIRECTION AND ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE OF WIND SPEED ON TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY, EXPECT MODERATE TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING TO CONTINUE
INTO MID WEEK. NOTE THAT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIDE FORECAST ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE EXACT PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT IN WHAT THE ACTUAL TIDE VALUES
WILL BE. PETSS STILL HAS A SIGNIFICANT RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FOR MANY
SITES SO USERS NEED TO PAY VERY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE FORECASTS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS TO START THE 00Z TAFS. S-SW
WINDS ARE GENERALLY 5-10 KT AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS ARE PUSHING INTO FAR NW PORTIONS OF
THE FA. HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE WIND SHIFT AND
BETTER RAIN CHANCES BY 1-2 HRS: WINDS SHIFT N-NW POST-FRONTAL
MAINLY BETWEEN 02-07Z (10P-3A EDT) WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND MORE
WIDESPREAD (STRATIFORM) RAIN MOVING INTO THE REGION. RAIN TAPERS
OFF FROM NW TO SE LATER SATURDAY MORNING AT SBY, BY MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTN SATURDAY AT RIC, BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH LATE AFTN
AT PHF AND POSSIBLY EVEN TIL EARLY EVENING AT ORF/ECG.
WINDS BRIEFLY DIMINISH POST-FRONTAL, BUT QUICKLY RAMP BACK UP
WITH ONSET OF COLD AIR ADVECTION, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12-15Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO FREQUENTLY GUST TO 30-35 KT AT
ORF/ECG, AND 25-30 KT ELSEWHERE. HAVE MVFR TO IFR CIGS
DEVELOPING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS FROM ~08Z THROUGH 16-20Z (BRIEFLY
AT SBY AND OF THE LONGEST DURATION AT ORF/ECG).
OUTLOOK: CONDITIONS BECOME VFR INLAND LATE SATURDAY AFTN WITH
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING WINDS, AND SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH
SUNDAY. CLOSER TO THE COAST, PERIODIC SUB- VFR CIGS MAY RE-
DEVELOP SUNDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY- TUESDAY, ALONG WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS (WINDS GUSTING TO AT LEAST 25-30 KT) AS
A NOR'EASTER DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE WATERS TONIGHT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD NORTHERLY GALE FORCE CONDITIONS START SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AND LIKELY BEYOND AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.
- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ON MONDAY AS THE
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND DEEPENS.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY STEADY AT SW 10 TO 15 KT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT. HOWEVER, THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE EVEN MORE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE OPTED
TO START THE SCA IN THE BAY/RIVERS WITH FORECAST ISSUANCE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO THE GUSTS TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH SHOULD ENTER THE NORTHERN WATERS AROUND
11PM THIS, THEN EXIT THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY 4AM SAT MORNING. THE
HIGH RES GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A BRIEF SURGE TO NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS MAY OCCUR IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH IS NOT
UNEXPECTED WITH THESE TYPE OF STRONG AUTUMN COLD FRONTS. HOWEVER,
THIS WIND WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WILL LIKELY RELAX BEFORE THE
STRONGER AND MORE WIDESPREAD GALES MOVE IN SATURDAY MORNING. IF THIS
DOES OCCUR, WE WILL LIKELY HANDLE WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS SINCE
IT WILL BE LESS THAN 3 HOURS IN DURATION.
THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS TO ULTIMATELY COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE NC COAST
LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS, THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF MODERATE GALES STARTING SATURDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SOME ON SUNDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS DEPENDING ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE LOW DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP GALES IN PLACE IN
ALL ZONES AND IN FACT EXTEND THE GALES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO MEANDER
OFFSHORE ON INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD (AND POSSIBLY
WESTWARD) INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES WHICH
WILL BE CRITICAL TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND
ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW FURTHER NORTH
EARLIER, WHICH WOULD BRING POTENTIALLY A ROUND OF STORM FORCE GUST
CONDITIONS TO AT LEAST THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER
SOUTH, WHICH WOULD LIKELY DELAY ANY STORM FORCE GUSTS DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND KEEP THEM EVEN FURTHER OFFSHORE.
WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF AND NBM WHICH SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT BUT KEEP GUSTS JUST BELOW STORM FORCE FOR
NOW. STILL, STORM WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED THIS WEEKEND IF THIS
TREND CONTINUES. BOTH MODELS SHOW THE LOW WILL THEN MEANDER
OFFSHORE FOR SEVERAL DAYS INTO MID WEEK WITH THE ECMWF BEING THE
CLOSEST TO THE COAST AND THE MODEL THAT WOULD BRING THE WORST
IMPACTS TO THE LOCAL AREA. GFS KEEPS THE LOW FURTHER OFFSHORE BUT
STILL GALE FORCE CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK AND CONTINUED HIGH
SURF/COASTAL FLOODING. NEEDLESS TO SAY THIS IS NOW LOOKING LIKE A
LONG DURATION EVENT WITH GALES LIKELY CONTINUING INTO MID WEEK IF
NOT BEYOND.
CLIMATE
- RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SET TODAY FRI 10/16:
- RIC: NO RECORD SET.
- ORF: 87 *TIES (2008).
- SBY: NO RECORD SET.
- ECG: 86 *TIES (2008)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
VAZ098.
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ098.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ089-090-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR VAZ097-098-529>531.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634-650-652-654.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ630-
631.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-
634-652-654-656-658-680-682-684-686-688.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ633.
GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM SATURDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ633-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ635-636.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ639.
GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...AJB/ERI/MRD
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...MRD
CLIMATE...LKB
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