212
FXUS61 KAKQ 051954
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
354 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL TREND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS AROUND FREEZING POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST.
2) DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL RECEIVED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
EARLY THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 355 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL TREND
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. THE COLDEST MORNING LOOKS
TO BE WEDNESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS AROUND FREEZING POSSIBLE
AWAY FROM THE COAST.
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE PUSHING OFF THE VA COAST AND MOVING ACROSS NE
NC THIS AFTERNOON. THESE TSTMS WILL POSE A SEVERE RISK (MAINLY
DAMAGING WIND) DURING THE NEXT 1-2HRS. OTHERWISE, THE SEVERE
THREAT BEHIND THIS LINE HAS DIMINISHED. TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE 60S BEHIND THE LEADING LINE OF CONVECTION. COOLER DRIER AIR
WILL FILTER IN OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND CLOSER TO AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEK. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S (LOWER 60S AT THE
COAST) AND MID 50S N TO MID 60S S ON TUESDAY, AS A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING A
REINFORCED SHOT OF CAA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA BY MIDWEEK WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S DUE TO THE NE
FLOW. THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES BOTH
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY AM AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY AM FOR
AREAS WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED. FOR REFERENCE, THE
GROWING SEASON HAS STARTED 4/1 FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NW COUNTIES,
WHICH START 4/11. AT THIS TIME, WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO HAVE
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE, WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS AROUND
FREEZING POSSIBLE, WITH EVEN UPPER 20S POSSIBLE IN THE PIEDMONT.
THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING OCCURS,
WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY AFFECTED BY HOW FAR SOUTH THE HIGH
BUILDS. TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES LATE IN THE WEEK WHILE DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL RECEIVED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR
HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS EARLY THIS WEEK.
WITH THE TWO COLD FRONTS AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEK, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS AS DEWPOINTS DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AND MINIMUM RH VALUES
REACH TO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER, WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN 15-20 MPH EARLY
THIS WEEK. WITH THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE AREA UNDER A MODERATE
DROUGHT, THERE MAY BE SOME CONCERN FOR FIRE WEATHER BY TUESDAY
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL RECEIVED TODAY. SO FAR
TODAY, AREAS FROM THE MIDDLE PENINSULA W THROUGH THE SOUTHSIDE
RIC METRO/CHESTERFIELD/TRI-CITIES SW THROUGH THE I-85 CORRIDOR
HAS ONLY HAS 0.1" OR LESS, WITH GENERALLY 0.1-0.25" NW OF THIS
CORRIDOR. THESE AREAS WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.
FARTHER E, THERE HAS GENERALLY BEEN 0.25- 0.5" WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS FOR AREAS THAT HAVE HAD SHOWERS/TSTMS, AND
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS NE NC, SO
THESE LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THROUGH THE
EVENING.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 155 PM EDT SUNDAY...
SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE MOVING INTO THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A COLD FRONT. PRIMARILY VFR AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS WITH A SW
WIND OF 15-20KT GUSTING TO 25-30KT, AND LOCALLY HIGHER AT ORF
AND ECG. SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH RIC/SBY THROUGH 21-23Z, ORF/PHF
THROUGH 00-02S, AND ECG THROUGH ~04Z, WITH THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS
AT PHF, ORF, AND ECG. BRIEF STRONG WESTERLY WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH TSTMS. HOWEVER, TSTM WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY NOT BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN THE SYNOPTIC GUSTS OCCURRING AS OF 18Z.
PERIODIC MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THE AFTN AND THEN PREVAILING
LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING AT MOST SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
RIC. BRIEF IFR VSBY IS EXPECTED IN HEAVY RAIN. THE WIND WILL
GENERALLY DIMINISH TO WSW 8-12KT AFTER CONVECTION PASSES AND
ONCE STRATIFORM RAIN DEVELOPS. A WIND SHIFT TO N/NW IS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS TO ~20KT AT ORF AND ECG. DRY
AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A NW WIND OF
5-10KT MONDAY MORNING WILL BECOME W IN THE AFTN.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A
SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS
INTO EARLY TOMORROW, THE LOWER JAMES UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING.
- STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY BRING ADDITIONAL SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING THE LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
LATEST ANALYSIS INDICATING IT MOVING INTO CENTRAL VA. SW WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE ELEVATED THANKS TO A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT. LATEST OBS SHOW 15 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30KT.
GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE ALSO PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS 34-50KT+ AND PEA SIZED HAIL, FOR WHICH SMWS ARE BEING
ISSUED. SHOULD SEE A 5-6 HOUR BREAK IN THE WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN TO THE W
AND THEN NW. NW WINDS THEN INCREASE TO 15-20KT OVER THE BAY AND
20-25KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING. DID JUST GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE EXISTING SCAS FOR THE
BAY INTO TONIGHT DESPITE THE BREAK INSTEAD OF TRYING TO TIME
EXACTLY WHEN THE SOUTHERN SURGE STOPS AND THE NORTHERN SURGE
BEGINS WITHIN A 6 HOUR PERIOD. MEANWHILE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
THE SCAS EXTEND INTO TONIGHT DUE TO SEAS STAYING UP AROUND 5FT.
WINDS QUICKLY DROP OFF TOMORROW MORNING AS TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES IN OVERHEAD. BECOMING BREEZY AS WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SSW
MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF ANOTHER (DRY) COLD FRONT EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, THEN BREEZY OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND IT TUES. AN EXTRA PUSH
OF CAA AND PRESSURE RISES ARE EXPECTED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NE WINDS DURING
THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE BACK TO SCA LEVELS FOR AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND LOWER CHES. BAY. THE ONSHORE SURGE
SHOULD ALSO BUILD SEAS TO AT LEAST 5FT FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS AS
WELL.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631-650-
652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ632-634-656-
658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633-
635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ638.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AC
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