873
FXUS61 KAKQ 141024
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
624 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF NE NC.
RAISED POPS FOR SUNDAY, WITH A MARGINAL ERO NOW IN EFFECT FOR
MOST VA ZONES, AND A SLIGHT ERO OVER THE FAR NE
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
2) SEASONABLE AND SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE BAY,
A HIGHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.
3) HOT AND HUMID WITH AFTERNOON STORMS MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 345 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WEAKENING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA LATER
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. HOT AND VERY HUMID ACROSS NE NC BEFORE THIS
OCCURS.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES WNW FLOW ALOFT, WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FOR TODAY,
IT GENERALLY APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE LIMITED PRECIP COVERAGE
THIS MORNING (AT LEAST FOR MOST OF THE REGION), THEN RAMPING UP
DURING THE AFTN INTO THE EVENING AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE NW AND EVENTUALLY PUSHES THE FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. DEW PTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID-
UPPER 70S ACROSS NE NC, AND WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, DECIDED TO RAISE A HEAT ADVISORY
FROM BERTIE CO. EASTWARD TO PERQUIMANS, INCLUDING EDENTON AND ELIZABETH
CITY. IT WILL ONLY TAKE HIGHS INTO THE LOW-MID 90S TO LEAD TO
HEAT INDICES OF 105+ FOR A FEW HRS WITH DEW PTS SO HIGH.
ELSEWHERE, MAY SEE HEAT INDICES APPROACH 105 UP TO THE VA-NC
BORDER AND SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR
ANY HEADLINES WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE LOCATION OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE. THERE
IS CURRENTLY A MORE SIGNIFICANT MCS WELL UPSTREAM FROM IL TO
WESTERN OH, AND CAMS SUGGEST THAT THIS PARTIALLY HOLDS TOGETHER
W/ SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. A MARGINAL
SEVERE RISK IS IN PLACE, AS WELL AS A MARGINAL ERO- BOTH HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON INSTABILITY, WHICH APPEARS MORE LIKELY FOR
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AREA AND MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND ERN SHORE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
HIGHS PWATS BUT STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING, SO A WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN EVENT IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING (BUT WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING
POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN URBAN OR FLOOD- PRONE AREAS).
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEASONABLE AND SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W
OF THE BAY, A HIGHER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.
SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND FAIRLY PLEASANT ACROSS THE NE 1/2
OF THE AREA AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR N RIDGES CLOSER TO THE
AREA. FARTHER W/SW, EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
THOUGH THUNDER CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW. WPC HAS A MARGINAL ERO
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC THOUGH
THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY BE W/SW OF THE CWA. HIGHS
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S/AROUND 90F IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY, AND SOME OF THE MODELS EVEN DEPICT
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST ON SUNDAY, ALONG WITH HIGHS BACK
AROUND 90F FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND POPS ARE NOW A LITTLE
HIGHER WITH A MARGINAL ERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND A SLIGHT
BRUSHING OUR FAR NE. THE EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN U.S. WILL FINALLY START TO BREAK DOWN AND FLOW ALOFT
WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS THE
NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON/EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...HOT AND HUMID WITH AFTERNOON STORMS MONDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS HOT WITH AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE. HEAT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH HEAT INDEX 105-100 IN THE FORECAST EVEN AFTER
SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS ACCOUNTING FOR THE HIGH DEW PT BIAS OF
THE NBM. MORE SEASONABLE TUE-WED.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 615 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS STILL PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT-BKN
MID-HIGH CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTN, (30-50% CHC) AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS
SOUTH AND SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING IS NOT HIGH, BUT DECIDED TO
HAVE PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA (EXCEPT SHRA AT SBY), MAINLY IN THE
20-24Z TIMEFRAME FOR NOW. ANY SHOWER/TSTM COULD PRODUCE BRIEF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS IN BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE WIND SHOULD GENERALLY BE SW LESS THAN 10KT THIS
MORNING, BECOMING WNW IN THE AFTN (EXCEPT LOCALLY N-NE AT ORF).
A CHC OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER TONIGHT AS THE FRONT LINGERS
BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
NOTE: AN ONGOING COMMUNICATION ISSUE AT THE ORF ASOS HAS NO
EXPECTED TIMEFRAME FOR RESOLUTION, AND AMD NOT SKED HAS BEEN
ADDED AGAIN AS OBS WILL NOT LIKELY BE MANUALLY TRANSMITTED
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK: QUIETER CONDITIONS RETURN ON SATURDAY, WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY W OF THE MAIN TERMINALS, THOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS
MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING. SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING JUST NORTH
OF THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SSE
~5-10 KT. SEAS WERE ~1 FT, WITH WAVES 1 FT OR LESS OVER THE BAY,
RIVERS, AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS PREVAIL TODAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE PREVIOUSLY
REFERENCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE WATERS
TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS GRADUALLY BACK TO THE E-SE OVER THE
SOUTHERN WATERS LATER TODAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING E-NE OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND
WAVES AND A FEW SMW/MWS POSSIBLE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE
WATERS FROM THE N SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT, SLOWLY NUDGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE REGION. A NORTHEASTERLY 10-15 KT WIND PERSISTS
FOR MOST OF SATURDAY, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ON THE OCEAN AND IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. SEAS
COULD ALSO BUILD A BIT MORE THAN NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES,
TYPICAL WITH E-NE FLOW. SEAS BUMP UP CLOSER TO 3 FT SATURDAY, BUT
REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY SCA THRESHOLDS.
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN S-SE SUNDAY. A PERIOD
OF ELEVATED WINDS IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW PERIOD LATER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH AGAIN, LIKELY REMAINING
PREDOMINATELY SUB-SCA. STILL, A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA GUSTS
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FOR LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THEREAFTER, LIGHT FLOW (10 KT OR LESS) IS GENERALLY FAVORED
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK IS MOSTLY FAVORED TODAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, WILL NEED TO WATCH SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY IF
SEAS AND NEARSHORE WAVES DO INDEED OVERPERFORM IN NE FLOW. THE
NORTHERN BEACHES COULD ALSO APPROACH "MODERATE" SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NCZ015-030>032.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...MAM/SW
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