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FXUS61 KAKQ 091135
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
635 AM EST THU JAN 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF COAST FRIDAY, TRACKING
ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL WINTER
WEATHER TO THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 410 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDY AND COLD TODAY.
- LESS WIND AND INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY.
MAINLY SUNNY FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS AGAIN STRUGGLING TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER 30S IN NE NC, TO AROUND 30F ON THE MD ERN SHORE.
LESS WIND TONIGHT, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES, RANGING FROM THE LOWER TEENS NW TO THE TEENS TO
LOWER 20S ELSEWHERE. STARTING OFF MOSTLY SUNNY FRIDAY, WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
THE GULF COAST REGION. HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 30S N TO AROUND 40F
IN NE NC.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 350 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A QUICK MOVING WINTER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A QUICK 1-3" (LOCALLY 3-4+") OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND LIGHT ICING TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW THAT A QUICK MOVING WINTER WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST PART OF
SATURDAY. THE DEEP TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE WITH A LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR THE GULF COAST. THIS
LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE SE COAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND
EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING, TAKING ON A
MILLER A TRACK. MODELS CONTINUE TO BETTER ALIGN IN REGARDS TO
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PRECIPITATION TYPES. CONFIDENCE STILL
REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE IN REGARDS TO SPECIFIC AMOUNTS. THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE REMAINS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS WITH A WIDE SWATH OF
2-4" OF ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL VA OVER TO
THE PENINSULAS AND LOWER EASTERN SHORE OF VA. SOMEWHERE IN THIS
AREA, A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW LIKELY SETS UP, LEADING TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 4". FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS NE
NC, TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER AS A WARM NOSE TRIES TO PUSH THROUGH
THE COASTAL AREAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS SNOW ACCUMULATION, BUT
ALSO A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND ICING.
AFTER MUCH BACK AND FORTH, OPTED TO GO WITH A BROAD BRUSH WINTER
STORM WATCH FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA
COUNTIES (INCLUDING THE CITY OF RICHMOND) AM CONCERNED A HEAVY FGEN
BAND OF LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS (POSSIBLY 4-5+") WILL SET UP
SOMEWHERE IN THIS AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, THE
ANTECEDENT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND LEFTOVER IMPACTS FROM THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM NUDGED US TOWARDS THE WATCH DECISION FOR THESE
AREAS. ULTIMATELY COULD SEE PARTS OF THE WATCH BEING REPLACED
WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, BUT WANTED TO SET THE GOAL POSTS
WIDE TO RAMP UP MESSAGING. FURTHER SE ACROSS HAMPTON ROADS AND
NE NC, SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATION CRITERIA (3" IN 12
HOURS) COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF
~0.15+" IN SPOTS LED TO THE WATCH DECISION IN THESE LOCATIONS.
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE LATEST FORECAST AS SPECIFICS WILL
CONTINUE TO GET IRONED OUT AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.
PRECIPITATION QUICKLY COMES TO AN END BY OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE
FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SATURDAY AM AND BY MID MORNING (AT
THE LATEST) FURTHER TO THE EAST. SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST, WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF MELTING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 410 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER SATURDAY, DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN. WEAK
RIDGING ALOFT BRIEFLY MOVES OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT MONDAY. A SLIGHT WARMING TREND
IS FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK THEN TURNS
VERY COLD AGAIN, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND LOWS BACK IN THE
TEENS FOR MOST AREAS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 635 AM EST THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 09/12Z PERIOD. SKC SKIES
OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. VERY GUSTY NW WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS 15-20 KT AND GUSTS 25-30 KT. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE
POSSIBLY AT SBY.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING OUR NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
WEATHER AND SUB-VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURN
LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, COASTAL WATERS, AND
THE LOWER JAMES RIVER INTO TONIGHT.
- LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE RIVERS,
CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY, LIKELY BRINGING SOLID SCA
CONDITIONS BACK TO THE LOCAL WATERS.
- NW WINDS AND UNSETTLED MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MONDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
A TROUGH ALOFT IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING,
BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION AND STRONG WINDS TO
THE LOCAL WATERS. NW WINDS AVERAGE 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS 35-40 KT FOR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE 3-5 FT
WITH SEAS 4-6 FT OFFSHORE.
GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE THIS MORNING FOR THE CHES BAY, COASTAL
WATERS, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER WITH STRONG SCAS ELSEWHERE. WINDS HAVE
UNDERPERFORMED A BIT IN THE LOWER JAMES SO FAR THIS MORNING BUT WILL
LEAVE THE GALE WARNING AS IS FOR NOW. STRONG NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AND RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
GALE HEADLINES WILL NEED TO REPLACED WITH SCAS AS CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION AND THEN OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SW. NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOLID SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 00Z
GUIDANCE SUITE AND LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOW ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR GALE
CONDITIONS WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN LATE MONDAY INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
WATERS.
3-5 FT WAVES IN THE CHES BAY TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY BEFORE INCREASING BACK INTO THE 2-4 FT RANGE AS WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND SATURDAY'S SYSTEM. SEAS BUILD TO 4-7 FT THIS MORNING
AND CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING BELOW 5 FT BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD BACK TO 3-5 FT IN OFFSHORE FLOW
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
PROLONGED NW WINDS HAVE ALLOWED TIDAL ANOMALIES TO FALL ACROSS THE
REGION. THE LOWEST LEVELS WERE ACROSS THE CURRITUCK SOUND WHERE THE
LOW WATER ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY. A MORE WIDESPREAD
PERIOD OF LOW WATER ADVISORIES IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY BEHIND
THE NW SURGE. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS NC AND MD MAY APPROACH -2 FT
TIDAL DEPARTURES DURING THIS TIME. LOW WATER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE UPPER JAMES RIVER FROM 10AM-4PM AND THE RAPPAHANNOCK
RIVER FROM 3PM-7PM. ADDITIONAL LOW WATER HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FOR
THE SUBSEQUENT LOW TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING IN THESE AREAS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ060-065>068-079>090-092-093-095>100-
513>516-518-520-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ630-650-652.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ631-632-634-654-656.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ635.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/KMC
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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