177
FXUS61 KAKQ 181805
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SLOW-MOVING FRONT PASSES THROUGH TODAY BRINGING STORM CHANCES TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
2) LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY COOLER NEXT WEEK AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SLOW-MOVING FRONT PASSES THROUGH TODAY BRINGING
STORM CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
EARLY MORNING RADAR SHOWS A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PERSISTING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NECK, MIDDLE PENINSULA, AND EASTERN SHORE. THEY SHOULD
DISSIPATE AND MOVE OFFSHORE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, BUT DON'T
BE SURPRISED IF YOU GET A FEW SPITS OF RAIN IF YOU'RE IN THESE
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY HAS A COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST DOWN ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS OUR LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE
DAY TODAY. SINCE THIS FRONT WILL TAKE MOST, IF NOT THE WHOLE
DAY TO PASS THROUGH, RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FOR MOST EVERYONE. THE FORECAST NOW HAS HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH UPPER 80S TO 90
DEGREES FOR THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND SOUTH INTO NE NC. DEWPOINTS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S, SO IT WILL FEEL A BIT STICKY OUTSIDE
WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
DEWPOINTS WILL TRY TO DROP INTO THE 60S FOR NORTHERN LOCATIONS
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY EXTENDS DOWN FROM
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, ALLOWING FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE MID 60S. UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN LOCALITIES, WITH 70S ALONG THE COAST.
WITH THE FRONT OVER VA TODAY, IT WILL BE A MOISTER AIRMASS IN
PLACE. PWATS ARE CURRENTLY RISING TO OVER 2" AS OF THIS WRITING
AND COULD REACH 2.25" ACROSS THE S/SE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES (PRINCE EDWARD, LUNENBURG, MECKLENBURG,
ETC) HAVING THE BETTER CHANCE AT STORMS. SPC HAS NUDGED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER UP AGAINST SOUTHWESTERN
MECKLENBURG COUNTY. WHILE THE THREAT LOOKS FAIRLY LOW DUE TO
SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES BEING UNIMPRESSIVE, CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME
ORGANIZED. WITH THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO TOTALLY CLEAR OUR
FORECAST AREA, THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOOKING MORE UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY COOLER NEXT
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF OUR AREA INTO NC/SC
ON SATURDAY. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY BENIGN MID-SEPTEMBER
SATURDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
DEGREES FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS AND THE EASTERN SHORE, WITH LOWER
80S FOR EASTERN VA AND NORTHEAST NC. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT BREEZY FOR EASTERN AND COASTAL LOCATIONS. THIS
EAST/NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP CLOUD COVER
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY. CAN'T TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER, BUT CHANCES ARE ON THE LOW END. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO RETURN. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. COULD START TO SEE SOME RAIN
CHANCES PUSH BACK INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY AS
SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THE FLOW.
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN SETS ITS EYES ON THE EASTERN US FOR THE NEW
WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET
UP OVER EASTERN CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL KEEP
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW GOING, RESULTING IN CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES
EACH DAY. IF THIS COMES TO FRUITION, MONDAY MAY BE OUR LAST DAY WITH
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, MODELS AGREE THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
ALOFT IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE POTENTIALLY CHURNING DOWN
INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE, WE
COULD BE DEALING WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFFSHORE
AS WELL. THIS WOULD CREATE WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR MARINE
AND COASTAL LOCATIONS, POSSIBLY FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. COASTAL
FLOODING WILL ALSO BE SOMETHING TO WATCH BY MID-WEEK THANKS TO
THE ELEVATED CONSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW. WPC HAS ADDED A SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE WILL BE IN
ABUNDANCE AND THERE WON'T BE MUCH FLOW TO MAKE THINGS MOVE MUCH.
WPC IS ALSO LEANING HARD ON A COLD AIR DAMMING SITUATION
KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY (70S NEAR THE
COAST), BUT THINK THAT MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW FOR THE CURRENT TIME
OF YEAR. REGARDLESS, THERE'S AGREEMENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY DROP BELOW NORMAL FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES
STICKING AROUND.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 205 PM EDT FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING S ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z. VFR
WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS
WERE DEVELOPING, PRIMARILY ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT AND THE
EASTERN SHORE. SBY HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL (20-40%) FOR
SHOWERS/TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING AND A PROB30
GROUP HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THUNDER FROM 19-23Z. OTHERWISE, THE
BULK OF THE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN W/SW OF A LINE
FROM RIC TO ECG. MAINLY VFR TONIGHT, WITH SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS, BUT AGAIN MAINLY W/SW OF AN RIC TO ECG LINE. HOWEVER,
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY, MAINLY IN VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA AND THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE CHES. BAY. THE WIND WILL BE NE 8-12KT SATURDAY WITH
SCT-BKN CU/SC. BKN CIGS WILL MAINLY BE VFR, WITH OCCASIONALLY
MVFR POSSIBLE (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).
OUTLOOK: MAINLY VFR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS
WILL BRING MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
THOUGH A PERIOD OF LOW-END SCAS DUE TO 5 FOOT SEAS IS POSSIBLE
FROM SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SE VA/NE NC COASTAL
WATERS. ELEVATED NE TO E WINDS PREVAIL LATER TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
- DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS THAT STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
LOCKED IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING SEVERAL DAYS OF ONSHORE FLOW AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SCAS OR GALES. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS
LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT OVER THE WATERS. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS
THE WATERS LATER THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS BECOMING N-NE AT 10-15 KT
BY LATE TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PUSH OF
CAA ARRIVES TONIGHT/SAT, WHICH WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO INCREASE TO
~15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT AS THE WIND DIRECTION GRADUALLY VEERS
FROM THE NE TONIGHT TO ENE ON SATURDAY. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND DECREASE TO 10-15 KT. WHILE WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD TO ~5 FT
BY SATURDAY (ESPECIALLY S OF CAPE CHARLES), WITH 4-5 FT SEAS
PERSISTING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR, BUT IT
APPEARS THAT SCAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE SE VA/NE NC COASTAL WATERS
AND PERHAPS THE MOUTH OF THE BAY (FOR 3-4 FT WAVES).
BY LATE MONDAY OR TUESDAY, WINDS BECOME NE AGAIN AS STRONG SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA (NORMALIZED ANOMALIES ARE >2
STD DEV FOR THE SFC HIGH). THE STRONGER CAA LIKELY HOLDS OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEEPENS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC OR SE COAST. SCA LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY, WITH
A GREATER INCREASE IN NE WINDS BY TUE NIGHT/WED (AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THU) DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONGER CAA AND A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR NORTH AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE TO OUR SE. WHILE THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT AND THERE
IS SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINITY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT POSITION
OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES, THERE IS QUITE STRONG CONSENSUS AMONGST THE
EURO, GFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES IN THE GENERAL PATTERN. AT LEAST
STRONG SCAS APPEAR PROBABLE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY, WITH A
DECENT CHANCE OF FREQUENT GALE FORCE GUSTS, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE TRENDS AS THIS GETS CLOSER IN TIME.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE LOW TODAY, WITH A MODERATE RISK FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE ONCE AGAIN.
HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY NEXT WEEK WITH THE PROLONGED
ONSHORE FLOW.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JKP
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...ERI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page