195
FXUS61 KAKQ 251346
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
946 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH.
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE TRENDED
UP.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC,
BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER IN THE DAY; RAIN LINGERS INTO THIS
EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST, ALONG WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES.
2) MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY
SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY/MONDAY, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY; STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 945 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN VA
AND NE NC, BEFORE TAPERING OFF LATER IN THE DAY; RAIN LINGERS
INTO THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTHEAST, ALONG WITH WELL BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES.
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE TO THE NORTH OF DEVELOPING WEAK LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST RADAR SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN, MOSTLY
LIGHT, ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-64, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
DIMINISHING TO THE NORTH. THERE ARE SOME POCKETS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL ACROSS NE NC AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THERE INTO AT
LEAST THE EARLY AFTN. THE UL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL
BE SLOW TO SLIDE OFFSHORE LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE NW. SHOWERS COULD
POTENTIALLY LINGER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
AND GIVEN CURRENT READINGS MOSTLY IN THE 60S, LOWERED TODAY'S
HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC
(WHICH MAY BE CLOSE TO RECORD LOW MAX VALUES FOR THE DATE).
FARTHER NORTH, HIGHS REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE, BUT WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S (WARMEST NE AREAS WHERE SOME SUNSHINE
BREAKS OUT LATER IN THE DAY). CLEARING OUT MOST AREAS THIS
EVENING, WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT PRIMARILY IN THE LOW-MID 60S (WITH
UPPER 60S SE).
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY WITH JUST ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED LATE DAY
SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY/MONDAY, WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY; STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK; HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. A UL TROUGH AXIS SETS UP JUST
OFFSHORE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL PUT THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
UNDER NW FLOW. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE TROUGH AND A COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO AN OVERALL UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
WEEK. SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED EVENING STORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED STORMIER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, SO NOW HAVE
CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE FA. BEING UNDER NW FLOW, THERE IS
CERTAINLY THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONGER STORMS MONDAY. HOWEVER,
THE MAIN SHOW STILL LOOKS TO BE THE COLD FRONT TUES. WITH THE
STRENGTH OF TROUGH, AND EVEN A POTENTIAL SFC LOW <1000MB, THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY IF THE TIMING LINES
UP WITH THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A VERY
INTERESTING IDEA FOR TUES INTO WED WITH THE FRONT'S PARENT LOW DOWN
TO 995MB STACKED UNDER A CLOSED UL LOW THAT DIPS AS FAR SOUTH AS PA.
THAT WOULD BE RATHER ANOMALOUS FOR JULY AND THE ECMWF IS THE ONLY
GLOBAL MODEL ANYWHERE NEAR THAT EXTREME. WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE
HOW THE MODELS TREND GOING FORWARD FOR SURE. THE SPC STILL HAS THE
FA HIGHLIGHTED IN THE EXTENDED SEVERE OUTLOOK.
AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 650 AM EDT SATURDAY...
SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA ONCE AGAIN BRINGING IMPACTS TO
ALL THE TERMINALS. RAIN RATES ARE MOSTLY LIGHT, THOUGH A THERE
HAVE BEEN A FEW POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN. STILL ANTICIPATING
THAT CIGS WILL DROP (EXCEPT AT SBY) THIS MORNING AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST OF NC, THOUGH THEY HAVE BEEN
SLOWER TO DROP THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. MAINLY MVFR, BUT
IFR COULD IMPACT ECG AND POTENTIALLY ORF BETWEEN ~12-16Z.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN TAPERS OFF
FOR MOST TERMINALS BY MID MORNING, BUT WILL LINGER IN THE
SOUTHEAST AS LATE AS 03Z SUN. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS BY EARLY SUN MORNING.
OUTLOOK:
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED LATE AFTN/EVENING EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY, WITH A HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING
WITH THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NNW.
MARINE
AS OF 310 AM EDT SATURDAY...
- SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES ON TUESDAY, WHICH COULD BRING A PERIOD OF
LOW-END SCAS WITH SW WINDS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ENE WINDS OF 10-15 KT AND 3-4 FT SEAS. ENE WINDS
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE 10-15 KT OVER THE SE VA/NE NC COASTAL WATERS
TODAY WHILE DECREASING TO 5-10 KT NORTH. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK OFFSHORE LATE TODAY-
TONIGHT. STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF SURGE OF 15-20 KT
WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS FROM MID MORNING-MIDDAY.
HOWEVER, EVEN IF IT DOES OCCUR, NOT EXPECTING IT TO LAST LONG ENOUGH
FOR SEAS TO REACH 5 FT. LOCAL WIND PROBS ONLY SHOW A 20-40% CHANCE
OF 18 KT WINDS OVER THE OCEAN SOUTH OF CAPE HENRY FROM ROUGHLY 7-11
AM. WINDS DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NE
THEN N AND INCREASING BACK TO 10-15 KT BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AS
THE LOW DEEPENS WELL OFFSHORE. SCA CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY LATE
TONIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY. THE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. S AND SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT
IN THE CHES BAY AND 20-25 KT OFFSHORE. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING WITH A BETTER CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BEACHES TODAY, WITH
A LOW RIP RISK IS FORECAST FOR ALL BEACHES ON SUNDAY BUT WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK LOW. THE
LOW RIP RISK CONTINUES ON MONDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AC/LKB
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...ERI
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