067  
FXUS61 KAKQ 081048  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
648 AM EDT WED OCT 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED  
SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW  
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST  
COAST THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN  
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/  
 
AS OF 645 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS (AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER) ARE EXPECTED  
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE.  
 
- A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.  
 
THIS MORNING, A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED OFF TO OUR NW (CURRENTLY  
ENTERING FAR WESTERN VA). RAIN SHOWERS BECOME FOCUSED ACROSS  
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AFTER SUNRISE, GRADUALLY SHIFTING  
FURTHER S AND SE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT  
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON,  
MAINLY ACROSS THE S/SE. THE FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY EARLY TO  
MID AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING EXPECTED FROM NW TO SE. HIGH  
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 70S NORTH TO  
AROUND 80 SOUTH. IT BECOMES BREEZY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST,  
WITH N WINDS GUSTING TO ~25 TO 30 MPH.  
 
SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUING  
ALONG THE COAST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO BE BUILDING INTO THE  
AREA FROM THE NORTH. MUCH COOLER TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING  
BACK INTO THE MID 40S (LOWER 40S POSSIBLE FOR THE TYPICALLY COOLER  
SPOTS) NW TO THE MID-UPPER 50S SE.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 250 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- MUCH COOLER AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
- PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOUISA AND FLUVANNA  
COUNTIES FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE 30S.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N/NW OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. MUCH COOLER ON  
WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 60S FOR MOST OF THE AREA (AROUND 70  
CLOSER TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND). SKIES WILL RANGE FROM SUNNY TO  
MOSTLY SUNNY, BUT IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE NE (ESPECIALLY  
CLOSER TO THE COAST). IT WILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH  
LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NW  
COUNTIES TO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE SE. THE LATEST NBM 25TH  
PERCENTILE HAS TRENDED COOLER, WITH LOW-MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE  
NW PIEDMONT AND THE NBM 10TH NOW SHOWING SOME READINGS AROUND  
FREEZING. GIVEN THIS, HAVE INTRODUCED A BIT OF PATCHY FROST FOR  
PORTIONS OF WESTERN LOUISA AND FLUVANNA FRIDAY AM. FROST ADVISORIES  
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THESE AREAS. WILL NOTE THAT THIS  
IS ON TRACK WITH THE FALL MEDIAN (50%) FIRST POTENTIAL FROST FOR  
LOUISA WHICH IS IRONICALLY 10/10 (10/12 FOR PALMYRA). SEE THE "FALL  
FIRST FROST AND FREEZE DATES" ON OUR WEBSITE FOR MORE SPECIFICS.  
 
ON FRIDAY, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ~1030+ MB HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE  
CENTERED NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  
MEANWHILE, FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF FL/GA, AN AREA OF  
LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL LIKELY HAVE IMPACTS TO THE  
LOCAL AREA AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. REMAINING COOL AND DRY ON  
FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.  
NOT QUITE AS CHILLY FRIDAY NIGHT AS CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO INCREASE  
IN ADVANCE OF THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE, LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S  
NW TO THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S SE.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 250 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A STRONG COASTAL SYSTEM WILL  
IMPACT THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAIN,  
GUSTY WINDS, AND SIGNIFICANT COASTAL/MARINE IMPACTS ARE ALL  
POSSIBLE.  
 
THE 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT  
WITH A STRONG COASTAL SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND  
LIKELY LINGERING INTO MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS  
SYSTEM, WITH WPC ALREADY HIGHLIGHTING EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA  
(INCLUDING ALL OF HAMPTON ROADS) IN A DAY 4 MARGINAL ERO AND A DAY 5  
SLIGHT ERO. BOTH THE 00Z GEFS AND EPS ALREADY SHOW 1 TO 3" OF QPF  
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  
CURRENT NBM POPS ARE ALSO LIKELY TOO LOW, ONLY ~40-50% ALONG THE  
COAST, SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, BUT THESE WILL CONTINUE TO  
TREND UP AS MODEL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY  
RAIN THREAT, IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH  
ALREADY IN THE FORECAST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST (HIGHEST SUNDAY-  
SUNDAY NIGHT). FINALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL AND MARINE IMPACTS ARE  
POSSIBLE, SEE THE MARINE AND TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTIONS OF  
THE DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/  
 
AS OF 645 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW, WITH THICKENING CLOUDS  
AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN  
AND LOWER FROM W-E THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH CIGS LOWERING TO  
MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT  
APPROACHES, WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR POSSIBLE AT SBY (LOW  
CONFIDENCE). SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA  
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF VSBY  
RESTRICTIONS BEING AT SBY (WHERE MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN  
IS POSSIBLE). THE FRONT CROSSES THE TERMINALS FROM N-S DURING  
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME N AT ~15 KT  
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM  
AT ORF/ECG BETWEEN 17-22Z, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD A  
PROB30 GROUP WITH THUNDER IN THE TAFS. SKIES CLEAR FROM NW TO  
SE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, RETURNING TO VFR AT ALL LOCATIONS  
BY 00Z.  
 
OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY, BUT A BREEZY NNE WIND  
CONTINUES AT THE COAST. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CIGS ARE  
LIKELY AS WE HEAD INTO THIS WEEKEND AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS  
OFFSHORE.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
AS OF 310 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH  
AT LEAST THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
- LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. WHILE  
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS LIKELY  
DEVELOP LATER SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH GALE TO STORM  
CONDITIONS LIKELY.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS MORNING AS A COLD  
FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS FROM THE W. SOUTHERLY WINDS RANGE FROM  
10-15 KT IN THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS TO 15-20  
KT IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. WIND GUSTS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN BETWEEN 15  
AND 25 KT, HIGHEST N. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED TO  
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CHESAPEAKE BAY (EXCEPT AT THE MOUTH) FOR  
THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING. OFFSHORE, WINDS SHOULD GUST  
TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS FOR A DECENT PERIOD  
THIS MORNING, BUT SEAS HAVE STAYED AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN  
IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE. THEREFORE, CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON  
HEADLINES FOR THE FIRST PART OF TODAY HERE.  
 
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WATERS  
THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE N, ALONG WITH A  
QUICK INCREASE IN WINDS. STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS  
CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WITH A CONTINUED  
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE GUSTS DURING THE  
10PM-2AM PERIOD THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT WHEN POST-FRONTAL  
PRESSURE RISES AND COLD/DRY ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LOCAL  
WIND PROBS ARE BELOW 10% FOR FREQUENT GALE-FORCE GUSTS, SO WILL  
REFRAIN FROM ANY GALE WARNINGS. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, A  
COMPRESSED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE  
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE  
TO OUR NORTH AND LOWER PRESSURES OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT AND/OR HAVE BEEN  
EXTENDED THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY, WITH EXTENSIONS THROUGH  
SATURDAY IN THE COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES. OTHERWISE, A  
REPRIEVE FROM THE WIND IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE/UPPER BAY AND  
ADJACENT RIVERS FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY. SEAS ARE  
FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5-6 FT BY TONIGHT AND THEN 6-8 FT BY  
THURSDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS S.  
 
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES FOR THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE  
REMAINS AGREEMENT ACROSS NEARLY ALL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE  
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE STALLED  
FRONT/COASTAL TROUGH SATURDAY, DRIFTING NORTH OR NORTHEAST NEAR  
OR JUST OFFSHORE OF OUR COASTLINE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE TRACK  
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW SHOW CONSIDERABLE VARIATION AMONG AND  
WITHIN THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS,  
RESPECTIVELY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW LIFTING  
NORTH AND STRENGTHENING ON SUNDAY AND DOING SOME KIND OF  
PIROUETTE NEAR THE COAST AS THE LOW OCCLUDES ON MONDAY. EITHER  
OF THESE SOLUTIONS WOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF  
SIGNIFICANT MARINE IMPACTS. THE LATEST 00Z/08 CANADIAN HAS ALSO  
JUMPED ON BOARD. IN SUMMARY, WHILE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, THERE  
APPEARS TO A BIT MORE CLARITY WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE. HAVE  
CONTINUED THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INCREASED  
WINDS A FEW MORE KT LATER SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS NOW BRINGS  
STORM CONDITIONS TO THE VA AND MD COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS TO  
50 KT AND STRONG GALE CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE, INCLUDING THE  
CHESAPEAKE BAY, WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY  
FOR HEADLINES, THESE MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED OVER THE COMING  
DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AT LEAST  
10-15+ FT WITH WAVES 6-9 FT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE.  
 
 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING  
 
AS OF 310 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
NO COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH  
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND MODERATELY STRONG NE WINDS, MINOR  
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN AREAS ADJACENT TO THE LOWER CHES BAY AND  
TIDAL YORK/JAMES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL COASTAL  
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND  
STRENGTH OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.  
 
 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630-631.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ632.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EDT  
FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-638-650-652-654.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR ANZ635.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT  
THURSDAY FOR ANZ636-637.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT  
SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...AJB  
NEAR TERM...AJB  
SHORT TERM...AJB  
LONG TERM...AJB  
AVIATION...AJB  
MARINE...RHR/SW  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
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