631
FXUS61 KAKQ 291913
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
313 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TRENDING WARMER WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WHILE QUIET
CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK.
2) THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER WITH LOWER
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFFSHORE WHILE
QUIET CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS DEPICT WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED
OFFSHORE. SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM
THE LOWER/MID 50S AT THE COAST, TO THE LOWER 60S INLAND. BREEZY
WITH A S TO SSW WIND OF 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM
FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
NOT AS COOL TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A S WIND OF
5-10 MPH. FORECAST LOWS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND
50F. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY MONDAY WITH
MID/UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. A SUBTLE WARM FRONT ALOFT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHERN VA MONDAY MORNING. NBM GENERATED ~30% POPS FOR
THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA, BUT THESE HAVE BEEN CAPPED AT 20%
AND TRIMMED IN COVERAGE GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ONLY MODEST
MOISTURE RETURN. WARMER MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S
INLAND AND MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. NOT QUITE AS
DRY WITH MIN RH VALUES AROUND 40% INLAND TO 45-50% AT THE COAST.
HOWEVER, AN IFD HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH NCFS AND NC NWS
OFFICES, AND THIS WILL LOCALLY INCLUDE NORTHAMPTON, HERTFORD,
AND BERTIE COUNTIES WHERE THE DROUGHT STATUS IS WORSE. BREEZY
WITH A SW WIND OF 10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH. DEEPER
SOUTHWESTERLY DEVELOPS TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S (70S EASTERN SHORE),
ABOUT 15+ DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BREEZY
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS BUT RH WILL NOT BE AS LOW AS MONDAY,
WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED WARMER
WITH LOWER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
WEDNESDAY WILL START OFF DRY AS TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S (70S FOR THE EASTERN SHORE). A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY BRINGING A CHC OF
SHOWERS WITH A FEW TSTMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NW HALF
OF THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY/EASTERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, 12Z/29
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST, WHICH KEEPS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
LARGELY TO OUR NW. RAIN CHANCES LINGER, BUT ARE NOT AS HIGH, AND
GREATEST ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN TIER OF THE LOCAL
AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED WARMER THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THE
LATEST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
NEARLY STATIONARY OR EVEN RETROGRADING WESTWARD BY EASTER
WEEKEND. THEREFORE, THIS WOULD INDICATE A TREND TOWARD WARMER
TEMPERATURES (80S INLAND/70S COAST), LOWER RAIN CHANCES, AND
SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS FOR EARLY APRIL.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 125 PM EDT SUNDAY...
1038MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA COAST
AS OF 18Z. VFR UNDER A SUNNY SKY WITH A SSW WIND 8-12KT WITH
GUSTS TO ~20KT AT RIC, SBY, AND PHF, AND E/SE 5-10KT AT ORF AND
ECG. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE WIND
WILL PRIMARILY BE S ~10KT TONIGHT, AND THEN BECOME SW AND
INCREASE TO 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KT LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY AFTN MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FROM RIC TO SBY.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY
WITH SW FLOW CONTINUING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
MARINE
AS OF 130 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY
THIS EVENING, REMAINING ELEVATED INTO TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF S TO SW SURGES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL SCAS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED, WITH THE BEST CHANCE ON THE BAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO ~15 KT WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE STILL 2-3
FT, WITH WAVES ON THE BAY LIKELY ALSO IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY BY THIS EVENING,
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS RANGING FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 25
KNOTS EXPECTED (HIGHEST OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE CHARLES). AS SUCH, SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES ON
THE OCEAN AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP SEAS IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY, BUT FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY (THOUGH OCCASIONAL 20 KT GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ON THE RIVERS AND NEAR THE LAND/WATER INTERFACE ON THE BAY).
BY MONDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER SOUTHERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED, POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF (MARGINAL) SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
BAY. A STRONGER SOUTHERLY SURGE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SCAS POSSIBLE. WINDS LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED AND GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING OVER OR NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ012>014-030-031.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087>090-092-093-096-
509>524.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/JKP
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJB/ERI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page