875
FXUS61 KAKQ 310843
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
443 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FULL DISCUSSION. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY WEATHER, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER HUMIDITY TO END THE WEEK AND START THE
WEEKEND.
2) A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MAINLY DRY WEATHER, SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AND LOWER HUMIDITY TO END THE WEEK AND START THE
WEEKEND.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHEAST MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE IS SETTLING IN. THERE IS STILL A BKN CLOUD DECK AROUND 7000-
9000 FT AGL ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 IN VA...WHICH THE MODELS HAVE
HANDLED POORLY. THIS CLOUD DECK SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER OUT DURING
THE REST OF THE MORNING. TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH
LOWER HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S, BUT WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY COME UP A BIT IN THE EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AS THE FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE. ONE LAST DRY
DAY (BUT WARMER/MORE HUMID) ON SATURDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD A BIT
AND THE LLVL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. HIGHS NEAR 90F W/ AFTN DEW PTS
RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS BY LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING SHOWER/STORM CHANCES
STARTING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SLOW MOVING UL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT
THE SAME TIME, A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH, BUT WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH MONDAY (AND LIKELY WASH OUT
BY TUE). WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE, DEEP-LAYERED S TO SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL. THIS WILL ALLOW
RICH GULF MOISTURE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN OVER
US EARLY NEXT WEEK. PWS SURGE FROM A COMFORTABLE 1-1.4" ON SATURDAY
TO 2.2-2.4" BY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INITIALLY BE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL VA DURING THE AFTN
(AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ARRIVES HERE FIRST). SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SPREAD NE THROUGH THE EVENING (THOUGH IT MAY VERY WELL
REMAIN DRY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ON THE EASTERN SHORE).
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON MONDAY AS A LEAD
SHORTWAVE POTENTIALLY TRACKS OVER THE AREA. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE
DAY WITH THE HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE DURING THE PERIOD. THE
TROUGH DAMPENS A BIT FROM TUE-WED...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE STILL EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN/EVENING ON BOTH DAYS AS WEAK SW
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS NEARBY. GIVEN THE
ENVIRONMENT AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT, THERE WILL BE A THREAT
OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING EACH DAY. TEMPS DIP DOWN A LITTLE BELOW
AVERAGE DURING THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD THANKS TO THE CLOUD COVER AND
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 500 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z/31 TAF PERIOD. THE MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK NEAR THE COAST SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT
BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY SUNNY BY MID-LATE MORNING. BY THIS AFTN,
EXPECT MAINLY SCT CUMULUS AGAIN. SKIES BECOME CLEAR OUTSIDE OF
HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY. SHOWER
AND STORM CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. PERIODIC SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE REGION.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED S/SE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE.
- ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THE LOCAL WATERS ARE CURRENT IN A WEAK PRESSURE REGIME, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO
LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY VARIABLE AT 5
KTS OR LESS THIS MORNING, WITH WAVES IN THE BAY 1 FT OR LESS AND
SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS MEASURING AT 2 TO 3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, THEN SLOW SHIFT
OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY SHIFTING
FROM NW TO E/NE, THEN S/SE, BEFORE BECOMING SW LATE TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL BE ~2FT, WITH ~1FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OFFSHORE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. THE WIND SHOULD PRIMARILY BE SUB-SCA. HOWEVER, A PERIOD OF LOW-
END SCA CONDITIONS IN THE BAY ARE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTN INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTING OFFSHORE. AS THIS TROUGH APPROACHES, THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS BOTH THE BAY
AND THE COASTAL WATERS. IN-HOUSE WIND PROBS CURRENTLY HAVE BETWEEN
~40-60% FOR SEEING GUSTS TO 25 KTS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
WATERS, SO THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A MARGINAL EVENT, WITH 5 FT SEAS
BEING RELEGATED TO THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS. THEREAFTER,
SOUTHERLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN, WITH SEAS MAINLY BETWEEN 2-3 FT
AND WAVES IN THE BAY BETWEEN 1-2 FT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN A
CHANCE OF AFTN/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AC/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...NB
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