242
FXUS61 KAKQ 150054
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
854 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTFUL SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER MAINTAINS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) ON MONDAY, BUT HAS
INCREASED THE PROBS TO 45% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS (WIND, HAIL, AND TORNADOES) ARE POSSIBLE.
A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
CAPE CHARLES LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1)...SHOWERS AND STORMS PREVAIL MONDAY, FOLLOWING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES LATE SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MONDAY,
FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SPC MAINTAINS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR MOST OF THE CWA
MONDAY.
2) COLD AND BREEZY TUESDAY, WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. IT REMAINS DRY,
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SHOWERS AND STORMS PREVAIL MONDAY, FOLLOWING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES LATE SUNDAY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
MONDAY, FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING HOURS. SPC MAINTAINS AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR
MOST OF THE CWA MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED S OF THE AREA, WITH VERY DRY AIR IN ITS
WAKE THIS AFTN. TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY IN THE 60S UNDER A THICK
BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS, WHICH WILL SHIFT NORTH WITH TIME LATER
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE N
TONIGHT, WITH THE FLOW TURNING ONSHORE. LOWS RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW/MID 40S. WILL QUICKLY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
SUNDAY WITH STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW ON THE COOL SIDE OF
A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH. ENOUGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT
MAKES IT INTO FAR SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON
FOR SOME LOW-END SHOWER CHANCES. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL MOSTLY BE IN
THE 60S, BUT WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
ON THE EASTERN SHORE DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE COLD
WATERS, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR NE NC POTENTIALLY
NEAR 70F IF THE RAIN HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE. SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE EVENING AS THE DEEPER
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY
SFC-BASED INSTABILITY UNTIL AFTER ~09Z/5AM MONDAY WHICH WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE FAR S. INSTABILITY ALOFT DOES INCREASE EARLIER,
AND MU CAPE OF 200-400 J/KG SPREAD NORTH AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH
COULD LEAD TO A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE MILD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE AREA, AND PROBABLY RISING OVERNIGHT IN MANY AREAS AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES.
THE SETUP ON MONDAY CONTINUES TO BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE POSSIBLE (WIND, HAIL,
TORNADOES). THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT
SHOWING AN EXTREMELY ROBUST MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFYING
WELL TO OUR WEST LATE SUNDAY, WHILE TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT,
AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING NEARLY CUTOFF OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES MONDAY. AT THE SFC, INTENSE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NE FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE
SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON, WITH ALL OF THE FORECAST MODELS DEPICTING
THIS FEATURE DEEPENING TO 980MB OR LOWER AND THEN OCCLUDING AS
THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES STACK VERTICALLY. THE 12Z/14
GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
MONDAY, SHOWING A SECONDARY, DEEPENING SFC TROUGH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS MONDAY MORNING, SHIFTING EAST TO THE COAST BY EARLY
EVENING. THE ONLY MODEL THAT DIFFERS SIGNIFICANTLY IS THE NAM,
WHICH IS SLOWER (AND OFTEN VERIFIES TOO SLOW).
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT, ROBUST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BRING
60S DEW POINTS NORTHWARD INTO THE ENTIRE REGION. VERY STRONG
WINDS ALOFT (ON THE ORDER 120-150 KTS) WILL OVERSPREAD THE
REGION ON MONDAY IN TANDEM WITH A 60-70 KT LOW LEVEL JET. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS WHICH IS MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND
POTENTIAL SUPERCELLS. THE DEEPENING SFC TROUGH WILL ENHANCE
WHAT WILL ALREADY BE IMPRESSIVE SHEAR, AND POTENTIALLY ALLOW THE
SFC TO 1 KM WINDS TO BACK TO THE SSE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS/HODOGRAPHS SHOW VERY FAVORABLE CURVATURE IN
THE LOW LEVELS WITH 0-1 SRH GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 200-400
M2/S2, AND 0-3KM SRH EVEN HIGHER.
THE LOCAL AREA WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL JET ON MONDAY WHICH WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR
ASCENT EVEN WELL AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED PRECIPITATION LEFTOVER FROM EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MOST GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS 750-1000 J/KG
OF MLCAPE WHICH WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY GIVEN THE
EXTREME KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE
BANDS WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND FAVORABLE JET FORCING SHOULD
PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR PREFRONTAL CONVECTION/SUPERCELLS ON MONDAY.
IF THIS CONVECTION CAN MAINTAIN A DISCRETE OR SEMI-DISCRETE
STORM MODE, DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY HRS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTN, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO BE STRONG. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A BROAD DAY 3 ENHANCED RISK
(LEVEL 3/5) FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN SHORE, WHERE A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) IS FORECAST., BUT THE PROBS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO
45% FOR MUCH OF THE AREA W OF THE BAY.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH THE A PROBABLE SHIFT TO MORE OF A QUASI- LINEAR
MODE, WITH AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND EMBEDDED QLCS TORNADOES. THE FRONT SHOULD TRANSLATE
OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH SEVERE THREAT ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...COLD AND BREEZY TUESDAY, WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. IT REMAINS DRY,
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURNING LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH COOLER (ACTUALLY
TRENDING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL TUE-WED) AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TUE-WED. MOST OF THE AREA CAN
EXPECT A HARD FREEZE TUE NIGHT/WED AM AS STRONG >1030MB SFC HIGH
BUILDS OVERHEAD, WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 20S. EVEN THE COAST WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST A LIGHT
FREEZE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S, THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION BEING THE NC OBX. GRADUALLY TRENDING WARMER BY LATE IN
THE WEEK, AND REMAING DRY WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS EVENING AS SCT CIRRUS CONTINUES
TO STREAM ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST THROUGH MOST
OF TONIGHT WITH EASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT, BUT COULD
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT NEAR THE COAST AS WE APPROACH SUNRISE.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
AND MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE BY THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON AT ECG, ORF,
PHF, AND RIC. A FEW SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR ECG AFTER 20Z
BUT WILL BE SCATTERED IN NATURE. WINDS BECOME ESE ~15 KT WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY BY THE EVENING AS CIGS LOWER, ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL VSBY REDUCTIONS IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY FOG INTO EARLY
MONDAY. LLWS IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND STRONG TO SEVERE TSRA MONDAY.
EVEN OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS, STRONG, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
PREVAIL INTO MON EVENING WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 KT EXPECTED.
DRY/VFR TUE WITH BREEZY WNW WINDS, REMAINING DRY WED-THU WITH
LESS WIND.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND
CROSSES THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR TOMORROW OVER THE BAY, SOUND AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES. SCA ARE LIKELY ON MONDAY,
WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, AND
POTENTIALLY A FEW WATERSPOUTS ON MONDAY, AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM ATLANTIC CANADA.
THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED EARLY THIS EVENING, ALLOWING WINDS
TO VEER AROUND TO THE E THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT. MARINE- BASED OBSERVATIONS ARE MEASURING WINDS OF ~5-10
KTS ACROSS THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT, WAVES
1 FT OR LESS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN THROUGH LATE
THIS EVENING, AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND WITH NO NOTABLE CAA WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
EXPECTED. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
STRENGTHEN TO ~1033MB DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AND SCA HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR E-SE WINDS ~20 KT IN THE CHES BAY AND LOWER
JAMES. A BIT MORE MARGINAL OVER THE REST OF THE RIVERS, SO HAVE
HELD OFF THERE FOR NOW. SCA RUNS THROUGH SUN NIGHT, WITH MORE
NOTABLE SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY LATE SUN NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
MONDAY.
ON MONDAY, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, DRAGGING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. HIGH END-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH LOW END GALE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES.
THIS WILL BE A MORE MARGINAL GALE DUE TO THE COOLER WATER TEMPS, BUT
MODESTLY STRONG PRESSURE FALLS, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND A 60-
5KT LLJ DO FAVOR A PERIOD OF SOUTHERLY GALES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THESE COASTAL WATERS AS THIS IS WHERE
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST THAT A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE FORCE
GUSTS WILL BE REALIZED, THOUGH THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS COULD SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW-END GUSTS. ADDITIONALLY, ALONG AND POTENTIALLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE IS A RISK FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS, WHICH
WILL BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS. SEAS BUILD TO 5-8 FT S
TO 9-12 FT N MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH 3-5 FT WAVES IN THE
CHES. BAY AND LOCALLY HIGHER AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. MORE BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ630-631-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ638.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
DISCUSSION...LKB
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ/MAM/NB
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