382
FXUS61 KAKQ 231905
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
305 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH LESS WIND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEK WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
- BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER
DAY WITH INCREASED FIRE DANGER.
- FROST ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH FREEZE WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT.
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
MIDWEST WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA.
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST WIND
OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. AS SUCH, HAVE MAINTAINED AN
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE EASTERN
SHORE AND NORTHERN OBX. TEMPS AS OF 220 PM WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID
(LOCALLY UPPER) 60S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S-70F
EXPECTED. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THIS AFTERNOON, YIELDING MIN RH VALUES OF 20-25% IN MOST AREAS AND
30-35% ON THE EASTERN SHORE. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SE TOWARD
THE AREA (BUT STILL REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR WEST). WILL CONTINUE TO
UNDERCUT NBM TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES, WITH LOWER 30S LIKELY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, MID 30S LIKELY ACROSS MOST OTHER INLAND AREAS
WEST OF THE BAY, UPPER 30S ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
AND FOR THE EASTERN SHORE, AND 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. GIVEN
THE FORECAST TEMPS, WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED INLAND. AS SUCH,
HAVE EXPANDED THE FROST ADVISORIES FARTHER EAST TO INCLUDE MOST
COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WEST OF THE BAY. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE
UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR LOUISA, FLUVANNA, AND GOOCHLAND
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS BETWEEN 30-32F. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH IN THE PIEDMONT DROPPING TO AROUND 32, BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO EXPAND THE FREEZE WARNING ANY FARTHER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
GIVEN LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRI AND SAT. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S N TO MID-UPPER 60S S FRI AND ~60F N TO MID 60S S SAT ARE
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING
GIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, LOW-MID 30S ACROSS
MOST OTHER INLAND AREAS WEST OF THE BAY, MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND FOR THE EASTERN SHORE, AND 40S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SAT MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT GIVEN A MORE FAVORABLE HIGH PRESSURE
POSITION OVERHEAD. AS SUCH, BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT WITH LOCALIZED TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S POSSIBLE
IN LOUISA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT NW PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE CURRENTLY
UNDER A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL
FREEZE WATCHES AS THOSE COUNTIES MAY SEE AN END TO THE FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM IF THEY DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. NEVERTHELESS,
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED WITH ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES
LIKELY.
CLOUDS INCREASE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, WITH UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL
FROST FORMATION. FOR NOW, HAVE LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 60F N TO MID 60S S SUN WITH LOWS SUN NIGHT INTO MON IN
THE LOWER 40S W TO LOWER 50S E ALONG THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUN NIGHT (20-25%
POPS).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH SUN INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, RIDGING INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINITY
REGARDING SPECIFICS, SOME DEGREE OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL
PROBABLY OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO OUR SOUTH OR OFF THE
COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WEAKER LOW EARLY IN THE
WEEK. WHILE IT IS HARD TO TIME ANY POTENTIAL RAINFALL, THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN MON AND TUE (~30% POPS) WITH THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR RAIN BEING ON WED (40-50% POPS). ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE STILL VARIES WIDELY WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, IT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S OVER
A DECENT PORTION OF THE FA (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/WEST) FROM MON-
WED AS WE'LL LIKELY BE LOCKED INTO A CAD REGIME FROM THE EARLY
TO PERHAPS MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRONG HIGH WELL TO
OUR NORTH. IF IT DOES RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUE OR WED,
HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE
PIEDMONT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 PM EDT THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES (OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
ACROSS FAR S VA AND NE NC TONIGHT) CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. W/WSW WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT.
WINDS BECOME NW 5-10 KT FRI.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS BUT STILL
DRY/VFR SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY, BUT JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TODAY WITH WINDS OUT OF
THE W.
- BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
- UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM COULD BRING ELEVATED
SCA CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY FROM DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING, THOUGH TO A LESSER
EXTENT THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE (~1024MB) IS LOCATED OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH WITH A ~998MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. W WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. THERE ARE A FEW
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AOB 20 KT, BUT MOSTLY WITH THE ELEVATED OBS SITES.
WAVES AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 1-3 FT IN THE CHES. BAY AND 2-4 FT IN
THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING TO ~10 KT WITH
THE WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NW BY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE
HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BENIGN
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NW WINDS ~10KT, ~1 FT WAVES, AND
2-3 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO MID-WEEK, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SCA
CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT, BUT SOME GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING. IF THIS WERE TO DEVELOP,
HIGH-END SCA WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS COULD BE POSSIBLE. MODEL TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ANALYZED.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AN IFD REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. NEARLY
IDENTICAL CONDITIONS (JUST A BIT COOLER TEMPS AND DEW POINTS)
ARE EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS FRI, NO ADDITIONAL IFD IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ012-013.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-509>525.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ060-061-
064>069-076-079>083-087-088-092-511>522.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ048-062-509-
510.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ERI/RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AC/KMC
FIRE WEATHER...
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