214
FXUS61 KAKQ 241357
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
957 AM EDT SUN OCT 24 2021
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 955 AM EDT SUNDAY...
WAA MID LVL CLOUD DECK WILL CONT TO LIFT NNE THIS AFTRN. FA BECOMES
WARM SECTORED SO LOOK FOR MSTLY SUNNY SKIES SOUTH, MSTLY CLDY BCMG
BECOMING PT SUNNY NORTH THIS AFTRN. WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S EXCEPT
ARND 70 ACROSS THE ERN SHORE.
FA IN WARM SECTOR TONITE UNDER FAIR TO PT CLDY SKIES. LOWS MID 50S
TO LWR 60S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...
THINGS WILL START TO GET ACTIVE MONDAY MORNING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND
DROPS DOWN INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SAME TIME, A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SC/NC COAST. THIS
MEANS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL DEVELOP FROM TWO SEPARATE SYSTEMS
ON MONDAY. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WILL MOVE INTO NE NC/SE VA
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE COASTAL SURFACE LOW
MOVES OFFSHORE. THE PRIMARY WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA, THE LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST, WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO
WESTERN VA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW A LINE OF STORMS TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MARCH TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW HI-RES MODELS ARE SHOWING
SOME ISOLATED CELLS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT AND
I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE THE MAIN LINE ARRIVES. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF OUR AREA
ALONG/WEST OF I-95 IN A SLIGHT RISK (OR A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG,
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, THE TIMING OF THIS
LINE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE ROUGHLY 5-9PM FOR WESTERN AREAS, AND
8-11PM FOR EASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, KEEP IN MIND THAT THERE ARE
STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO THE EXACT
TIMING MAY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.
THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT DOESN'T LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND
INCREASE IN SPEED A BIT, WITH SOME GUSTINESS DEVELOPING ALONG
COASTAL AREAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY
BECOME LIMITED. RAIN WILL BECOME CONFINED TO EASTERN/COASTAL
LOCATIONS BY MID-DAY TUESDAY. SKIES WILL TRY TO PARTIALLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BIGGEST NOTICEABLE
CHANGE WILL OCCUR WITH THE TEMPERATURES. MONDAY'S HIGHS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH DEWPOINTS TUMBLING
INTO THE 40S. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MODEST
SINCE THE FRONT WILL JUST BE WORKING THROUGH.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 345 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LOWS WILL RETURN TO THEIR NOTICEABLY CHILLY LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BEYOND. EXPECT INLAND LOCATIONS TO BOTTOM
OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S, WITH 50S ALONG THE COAST. RAIN
CHANCES WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS OFFSHORE TO OUR ENE. THAT
WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO
BRIEFLY BUILD IN LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BOTH DAYS. THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS SLATED TO AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS AND MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND THEN RIGHT OVERHEAD
BY FRIDAY. TIMING DIFFERENCES PERSIST BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH
THE ECMWF EJECTING THE LOW TO THE NE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS WHICH LINGERS IT OVER
MD/PA INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE DURATION OF OUR RAIN CHANCES WILL
DEPEND ON WHICH SOLUTION IS ACCURATE, BUT FOR NOW, SIDED WITH
THE FASTER SOLUTION. YOU WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS SYSTEM
IF YOU HAVE HALLOWEEN PLANS NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS, EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH A REINFORCING SHOT
OF SEASONABLY COOL AIR.
AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM IN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING,
WITH CIGS OF SCT-BKN100-150 PERSISTING THROUGH ~15Z BEFORE
SKIES GRADUALLY BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. CAN'T RULE OUT A STRAY
SHRA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING, THEN BECOME SE AOB 10KT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. VERY PATCHY FOG IS ALSO TRYING TO DEVELOP IN A FEW
SPOTS, SO OCCASIONAL VIS REDUCTIONS TO 2-4SM WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY FOR ECG AND PHF. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL START TO
MOVE BACK IN AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK: A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY CREATING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RA AND
PERHAPS EVEN SOME STRONGER TS DURING THE PM OF MONDAY. SUB-MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH WINDS WILL BECOME NW/N AND BREEZY IN SPOTS.
RAIN LOOKS TO RETURN BY FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 645 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH NNE WINDS OVER NORTHERN
WATERS AND LIGHT WNW WINDS OVER SOUTHERN WATERS. GOOD BOATING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
IN CONTROL. ENE WINDS EVENTUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE E-SE BY
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING SSE TONIGHT.
WINDS ALSO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THROUGH TONIGHT, AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT STEADILY TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG SFC
FRONT FROM THE WEST. SEAS ALSO BUILD TO 3-4 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY, WITH SOME 5 FOOTERS POSSIBLE WELL OFFSHORE NORTH
OF CHINCOTEAGUE. HAVE RAISED SCA FLAGS FOR THE CHES BAY NORTH OF
NEW POINT COMFORT FOR TONIGHT FOR THE PRE- FRONTAL S SURGE.
COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA OVER THE LOWER
BAY/LOWER JAMES AND OVER THE COASTAL WATERS, BUT WITH MORE
MARGINAL NATURE OF WINDS/SEAS OVER THESE ZONES, WILL HOLD OFF
FOR NOW.
PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. STRONGER CAA BEHIND THIS FRONT AND THE 00Z/24 MODELS
ARE MORE INTENT ON DEVELOPING A STRONGER SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA/
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. BETWEEN STRONG CAA SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT AND
THE DEEPENING LOW OFFSHORE, SCA WINDS APPEAR LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE
WATERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY. THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS
FOR SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT, WITH WINDS TO
THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, BRIEFLY BECOMING SUB-
SCA BY WEDNESDAY AFTN/EARLY WED NIGHT. SEAS BUILD TO 5 TO 7 FEET
TUESDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY BUT LINGERING IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ANOTHER STRONG SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND
ON THE HEELS OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR (AT
LEAST) ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCAS ACROSS THE WATERS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ630-631.
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MPR/JKP
LONG TERM...MPR/JKP
AVIATION...JKP
MARINE...MAM
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