796
FXUS61 KAKQ 182327
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
627 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED WITH RESPECT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY. DEVELOPING ONSHORE WINDS WILL
BRING LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE VA/MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE, AND AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH HAMPTON ROADS.
2) SEVERAL DISTURBANCES BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN BACK TO THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
3) STRONGER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY IMPACTS THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 320 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THURSDAY. DEVELOPING
ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE VA/MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE, AND AREAS
ALONG THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH HAMPTON
ROADS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE FLOW ALOFT IS QUASI-ZONAL ON THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD FLAT RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH,
WHICH IS FLATTENED BY VIGOROUS TROUGHS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
ATLANTIC CANADA. MOSTLY CLOUDY, MILD, AND BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S FROM CENTRAL VA
TO THE EASTERN SHORE, TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70F ACROSS FAR SE
VA AND NE NC WHERE THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE THINNER. THE WIND IS SW
10-15 MPH GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH, AND LOCALLY GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH
ACROSS FAR SE VA AND NE NC.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHERN NY AND AND SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT, WHICH ALLOWS FOR A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND. LOW CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S FROM CENTRAL VA TO THE
EASTERN SHORE (COOLEST OVER THE EASTERN SHORE), WITH UPPER
50S/LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN/SE VA AND COASTAL NE NC, AND
MILDER WITH LOWER TO MID 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEVERAL DISTURBANCES BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
BACK TO THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT ALOFT DROPS INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SETTLES
IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER EARLY THURSDAY. THIS HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT, WITH POPS GENERALLY
20-30% THIS EVENING, AND THEN 30-40% IN VICINITY OF THE VA/NC
BORDER LATER TONIGHT. BY THURSDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA, AND OVERRUNNING/WAA ALOFT
IMPROVES WITH WIDESPREAD STEADY LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE DIMINISHES THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL COOL AIRMASS LINGERS AS THE BACKDOOR
BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
PERSISTENT AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. QPF THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY IS MAINLY 0.1-0.25" S TO
0.25-0.5" N.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA, AND SHOULD ACT TO
SCOUR OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BY AFTERNOON, WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING FROM SW-NE. THIS BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WAVE
TRACKING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES TO SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC. QPF AFTER 12Z FRIDAY IS
LIMITED, GENERALLY 0.1-0.25", WITH TOTAL QPF 0.25-0.5" S TO
0.5-0.75" N THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY (7PM SATURDAY).
KEY MESSAGE 3...STRONGER COASTAL LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY
IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
BY SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, MOST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO DEPICT A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST IMPACTING THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IN THE STORM DEVELOPING IS HIGH. HOWEVER, THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING, TRACK, AND RESULTANT SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS. THE 18/12Z RUN OF THE GFS/CMC EACH BROUGHT
PRECIPITATION BACK CLOSER TO THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY, WITH SUBSTANTIAL QPF THAT SHOWS RAIN TO SNOW AS COLD AIR
IS PULLED INTO THE SYSTEM. MEANWHILE, THE 18/12Z ECMWF HAS HAS
A COASTAL LOW, BUT IS FLATTER, WEAKER, AND SLOWER TO PULL COLD
AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. THE ASSOCIATED EC AIFS NOW IS MORE
AMPLIFIED AND HAS MORE WINTRY POTENTIAL THAN THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL.
MODEL ENSEMBLE (GEFS/EPS/GEPS) SNOW PROBABILITIES FOR >1" OF
SNOW (AT 10:1 SLR) HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY, OR REMAINED SIMILAR
OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN VA AND THE EASTERN SHORE. WHILE THIS
REMAINS A RATHER LOW-PROBABILITY (AND HIGHER IMPACT) SCENARIO,
IT IS SOMEWHAT MORE FEASIBLE GIVEN THE TREND TOWARD A STRONGER
UPPER LOW, WHICH IS MODELED TO BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF THIS WEEKEND
OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE MARGINAL THERMAL
PROFILES, THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO REMAINS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS LATER SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, AND
POTENTIALLY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE MORE
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TRENDS, THIS SCENARIO OF PRECIPITATION
ENDING AS SOME LIGHT SNOW EARLY MONDAY, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
DELMARVA AND PENINSULAS OF EASTERN VA, AND POTENTIALLY BACK INTO
CENTRAL VA SHOULD BE WATCHED OVER THE COMING DAYS. ALSO OF
NOTE, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASED BLOCKING IN THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC, WHICH INDICATES A CHILLY START TO NEXT WEEK BEFORE
THE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH MODIFIES INTO THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 625 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR UNDER BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS (BUT WITH VFR TO BRIEFLY MVFR
VSBYS). CIGS REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OFF AND ON LIGHT
RAIN (WHICH SHOULD INITIALLY HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON FLIGHT
CONDITIONS). A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY. CIGS QUICKLY DROP TO IFR BEHIND THE FRONT. IN
ADDITION, RAIN BECOMES FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AM (EXCEPT AT ECG WHERE POPS ARE LOWER), WITH REDUCED
VSBY DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN. THE WIND BECOMES
NE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
OUTLOOK: THE BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK N AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER FRONT BRINGS A CHC
OF SHOWERS FRIDAY MORNING, AND CIGS SHOULD LIFT IN THE WAKE OF
THIS BOUNDARY BY FRIDAY AFTN. THIS FRONT LINGERS S OF THE AREA
SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES LINGERING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE
NC (MAINLY AT ORF, PHF, AND ECG). STRONGER LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OFF THE COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION COULD END AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW AT SBY
AND RIC.
MARINE
AS OF 320 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING FOR ALL
AREA WATERS.
- A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS
TURNING ONSHORE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
- A STRONGER SYSTEM POTENTIALLY IMPACTS THE WATERS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH A
STRONG OCCLUDED LOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES FORCES BROAD SW FLOW OVER THE REGION.
AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS SHOW GUSTY W/SW WINDS, MAINLY NEAR THE
LAND/WATER INTERFACE WITH RELATIVELY WARM AIR AND COOL WATERS
IMPEDING MIXING AWAY FROM SHORE. THE HIGHEST GUSTS OBSERVED
THROUGH THE DAY HAVE BEEN IN THE TIDAL RIVERS, NEAR-SHORE
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. WAVES/SEAS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED CONSIDERABLY TODAY WITH
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 3-4 FT OFFSHORE. WITH CONTINUED
WESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING, NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT IN SEEING 5 FT
SEAS SO HAVE SCA HEADLINES ENDING AT 10PM/03Z (THIS TIMING MAY
EVEN BE GENEROUS). SCAS FOR THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND END AT 7PM/00Z.
THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MARINE FOG TONIGHT WITH WARM
AIR INTERACTING WITH RELATIVELY COLD WATERS. FOG COULD BECOME
DENSE AND A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT. THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING NE OR ENE 5-15 KT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE BOUNDARY GETS BEFORE
STALLING IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. ONSHORE FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT MAY ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD INTO THE 4-5 FT RANGE (WELL
OFFSHORE) FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES WITH MARGINAL SEAS AND RELATIVELY
LOW CONFIDENCE. SUB- ADVISORY WINDS OF VARYING DIRECTION ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MEANDERS NEAR THE
REGION. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SYSTEM TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT
FROM RUN-TO-RUN AND BETWEEN MODELS DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCA OR GALE CONDITIONS IS INCREASING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJZ/MAM
AVIATION...AJZ/ERI
MARINE...RHR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page