419
FXUS61 KAKQ 292314
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
714 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SIDE OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND THE
SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER FOR TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY, MAINLY FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
2) MAINLY DRY TO END THE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY
SATURDAY, THOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO PERSIST.
TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR TODAY,
MAINLY FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT TRAILING BEHIND. THE WARM FRONT HAS
BEGUN TO ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND
EASTERN SHORE. THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL HAVE CONSISTENTLY DECREASED
THE AMOUNT OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH MINIMAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED, THERE HAVE BEEN VIRTUALLY NO
BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST SKIES TODAY BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, WHICH
HAS KEEP DESTABILIZATION TO A MINIMUM. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING BRINGING A SECONDARY CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. WITH THE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION, WILL BE HARD TO GET
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ALTHOUGH NOT IMPOSSIBLE. SPC MAINTAINS A
MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE AREA FOR DAMAGING WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO, BUT THIS IS A VERY MARGINAL
MARGINAL RISK. ANY RAINFALL RECEIVED WILL LIKELY AVERAGE LESS THAN
0.10", BUT HIGHER AMOUNTS IN STORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MAINLY DRY TO END THE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES
RETURNING BY SATURDAY, THOUGH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY
TO PERSIST. TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES.
STILL LOOKING LIKE A RATHER BLOCKY PATTERN SETUP ALOFT FOR THE LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SLOW-MOVING LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA
DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AS A STRONG, BUT COMPACT UPPER
LOW PUSHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF CONUS, MOVING FROM BAJA
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-SOUTH BY FRIDAY
AND FRI NIGHT. THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE FLATTER/MORE
SUPPRESSED AND SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION, WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE GULF COAST, AND THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PUSHING ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY, PUSHING SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO HAMPTON ROADS
AND NE NC. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WX, IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES AND QPF REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ENSEMBLES SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF
RAINFALL MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY,
WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING FROM LATEST RUNS FOR 0.1" NOW SHOWING
50-100% CHANCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND 40-70% CHANCE OF 0.5". THE
MORE RAIN THE BETTER, BUT STILL NOT LOOKING LIKE A DROUGHT
BUSTER.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 710 PM EDT WEDNESDAY ...
MAINLY VFR AT THE TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
NEAR SBY WELL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. THAT FRONT WILL CROSS
THE TERMINALS FROM NW-SE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS. THERE IS A LOW CHC OF A TSTM BETWEEN
01-06Z (BEST CHC AT ECG BASED ON THE LATEST CAM GUIDANCE). ONLY
MAINTAINED THE PROB30 FOR THUNDER AT ECG SINCE CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW ELSEWHERE. SHORT LIVED IFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. CIGS MAY DROP TO MVFR BETWEEN 03-10Z (MAINLY
NEAR THE COAST) BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT BEHIND THE FRONT ON
THURSDAY. MAINLY CLEAR OUTSIDE OF SCT AFTN CUMULUS THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN SE-SW THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT,
BECOMING NW ~10 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KT ARE
POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA ON SATURDAY, BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ADDITIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SAT/SAT NIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SE VA/NE NC.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY AND CROSSES THE
WATERS EARLY THURSDAY WITH INCREASING SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SIDE OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AND THE
SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THIS AFTN WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED
TO TIGHTEN LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING WITH AN INCREASING SSE WIND,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHES. BAY LATER THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SCAS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES. BAY. 12Z/29 MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
SUBSTANTIALLY LOWERED THE STRENGTH OF THE CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH ONLY MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. GIVEN THAT SCA FLAGS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES. BAY, THESE HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH
10AM THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MARGINAL NW SURGE. SEAS SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN 3-4FT THIS AFTN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, BUT COULD
TOUCH 5FT OUT NEAR 20NM TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 2-3FT, WITH 4-6FT SEAS IN THE 20-60NM OFFSHORE
WATERS.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS A BRIEF NORTHERLY SURGE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR THE CHES. BAY. ADDITIONAL SCA FLAGS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THIS SURGE
ALSO LOOKS MARGINAL. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OFF THE OUTER BANKS
SATURDAY. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SCA CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE LOWER CHES. BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
WITH A NE TO N WIND AND ELEVATED SEAS.
COASTAL FLOODING
TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO ~1.5FT
ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL DURING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT, WHICH IS THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY PUSH SITES ALONG THE
BAY-SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE TIDAL
POTOMAC INTO MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR VAZ075-077.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM
AVIATION...ERI/KMC
MARINE...AJZ/RHR
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