071  
FXUS61 KAKQ 160838  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
338 AM EST MON DEC 16 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY  
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE MID  
ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE  
TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF  
THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY..  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING, A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SETTLED NE OF  
THE AREA WHILE A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS DRAPED NEAR THE  
VA/NC BORDER. SOME RETURNS ON RADAR HAVE BEEN NOTED JUST TO THE  
NORTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING, BUT IT APPEARS MUCH OF THIS IS NOT  
MAKING IT TO THE GROUND AT THIS TIME. DO HOWEVER EXPECT  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO INCREASE ACROSS THESE AREAS OVER THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF HOURS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S (SOME MID 30S SW WHERE CLEARING OCCURRED.)  
 
STILL LOOKING AT A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY THAT WILL BE  
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE STATIONARY FRONT DECIDES TO SET UP  
SHOP. FOR NOW, SIDED CLOSEST TO THE NAM WHICH TENDS TO HANDLE THIS  
KIND OF SITUATION THE BEST ALONG WITH A BLEND OF SOME HIGH-RES MODEL  
GUIDANCE. THIS FORECAST HAS THE FRONT LARGELY STAYING SOUTH OF THE  
RICHMOND METRO TODAY, POSITIONED FROM AROUND CENTRAL LUNENBURG  
COUNTY TO SOUTH OF PETERSBURG TO AROUND NORFOLK. NORTH OF THE  
BOUNDARY TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY MAKE IT UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S  
(PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE FAR  
NW UNTIL LATE) WHILE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE  
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S. THERE WILL LIKELY EXIST A PRETTY SUBSTANTIAL  
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM N TO S RIGHT ACROSS THE RICHMOND METRO  
AREA.  
 
PRECIPITATION-WISE, IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF TODAY'S PRECIP  
CHANCES WILL STAY CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST  
AREA. LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA (ROUGHLY  
RIC SOUTH). PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A MIXTURE OF RAIN/SNOW,  
ACROSS THE FAR NW (NORTHERN LOUISA/CAROLINE COUNTIES) AND NORTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE. QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN  
LIGHT AND SURFACE TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING, THUS AM NOT  
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION/SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS. ANY WINTRY  
PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END ACROSS THESE AREAS SHORTLY AFTER  
SUNRISE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...  
 
TONIGHT, THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MAKES ITS SLOW PROGRESSION BACK TO  
THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE TN VALLEY  
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY AND  
THEN RISE AS THE FRONT TRACKS NW. EARLY LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE  
UPPER 30S NW TO THE MID 50S S. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AREA-WIDE  
THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED  
COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TUESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EXIT OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED  
WARM FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT NORTH OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON (A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY ACROSS THE FAR NW). WITH  
THE FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION, THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR  
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO UPPER 60S (70 ACROSS THE FAR S).  
FOR THE FAR N/NW, HAVE HIGHS MAKING IT UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.  
FINALLY, THERE WILL BE A TOUCH OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FAR SE BY  
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, THUS WOULD BE NOT BE SHOCKED IF WE GET A  
RUMBLE OR THUNDER OR TWO WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT NOT HIGH  
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  
 
CONDITIONS IMPROVE QUICKLY TUESDAY NIGHT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL  
PASSAGE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. MODEST CAA AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD DROP TEMPS TO THE  
20S NW TO THE LOW/MID 30S SE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL  
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS/SUNNY SKIES  
BUT CHILLY TEMPERATURES. DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE NBM WITH THE  
WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO  
UPPER 40S. COLD WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION,  
LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S AREA-WIDE, POTENTIALLY UPPER TEENS  
ACROSS THE NW.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 230 PM EST SUNDAY...  
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL  
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS DURING THIS  
PERIOD. LOW TEMPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE LOW 20S, NEAR 30  
AT THE COAST, AND HIGH TEMPS IN THE 30S/40S. OVERNIGHT MODEL  
RUNS HAD A COASTAL DEVELOPING OVER THE SE AND RIDING UP THE  
ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEKEND. 12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF TODAY  
HAVE A LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THEN SLOWLY  
DRIFTING OFF THE SE COAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WHILE THE CMC STILL  
TRACKS THE LOW UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. WITH THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY  
THIS FAR OUT, JUST WENT WITH LOW CHANCE POPS FOR NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 1230 AM EST MONDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES TO START THE 06Z TAF PERIOD WITH  
SOME SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS (ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF  
THE AREA) AROUND ~10K FEET. KRIC MAY REACH MVFR CONDITIONS  
MONDAY MORNING DUE TO CLOUD BASES AROUND 3000 FEET DUE TO A  
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. KSBY WILL LIKELY  
FALL TO MVFR BY LATE MONDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON WITH -RA  
SHOWERS AND REMAIN MVFR FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY ON MONDAY  
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM  
SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY WINDS WILL BECOME SW  
AROUND 10 KT (MAINLY FOR KPHF/KECG/KORF)  
 
OUTLOOK...TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEGRADED FLIGHT  
CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS ALL AIRPORTS AHEAD  
OF A COLD FRONT WHICH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY EVENING.  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WEDNESDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 330 AM EST MONDAY...  
 
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DROPPED SWD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC  
COAST AND HAS SETTLED NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. THE  
WIND IS NE 10-15KT N OF THE BOUNDARY, WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-3FT,  
WITH UP TO 3-4FT OFFSHORE N OF CHINCOTEAGUE, AND ~2FT WAVES IN THE  
BAY (ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF 2-3FT ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING).  
THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NWD THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN, WITH  
THE WIND BECOMING E, THE SE, AND EVEN S FROM THE LOWER BAY SWD WITH  
SPEEDS AOB 10KT. THE BOUNDARY SHARPENS AND CREEPS BACK SWD LATE THIS  
AFTN AND EVENING, WITH THE WIND BECOMING NNE FOR THE MIDDLE BAY AND  
NE OFF THE MD COAST WHILE REMAINING S TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT, AGAIN  
WITH SPEEDS AOB 10KT. THE BOUNDARY RETREAT BACK NWD LATE THIS  
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE WIND BECOMING SE THE S  
AND INCREASING TO 10-15KT. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO LIFT N OF THE  
REGION TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN AS A STRONG COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE NW, WITH THE WIND BECOMING SW 15-20KT, WITH 3-  
4FT SEAS, AND 2-3FT WAVES IN THE BAY. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR PRE-  
FRONTAL SCAS, BUT IT IS STILL EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLAGS AS THERE IS  
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE ONSET AND EXTENT.  
 
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE COAST LATE TUESDAY AFTN AND  
EVENING, WITH A PERIOD OF STRONG CAA OCCURRING BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH  
A NNW WIND INCREASING TO 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT. THERE IS A  
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 35-40KT WITH 3-5MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES WITH  
THE INITIAL SURGE, BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE DURATION FOR  
STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE LESS THAN 3HRS AND MORE ON THE ORDER OF AN  
SMW RATHER THAN A GALE WATCH/WARNING. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND  
ANOTHER ROUND OF CAA ARE EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A NNW WIND  
AGAIN INCREASING TO 20-25KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. SEAS ARE  
EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-6FT TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT,  
WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE BAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL  
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY, WITH PERHAPS A LULL DURING THE  
DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURSDAY AFTN INTO FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...AJB  
NEAR TERM...AJB  
SHORT TERM...AJB  
LONG TERM...CMF  
AVIATION...AJB  
MARINE...AJZ  
 
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