424
FXUS61 KAKQ 020714
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
214 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 945 PM EST THURSDAY...
TEMPS AS OF 940 PM GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS DISSIPATING
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT, CLEAR SKIES RETURN AND
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, CALM WINDS, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 20S INLAND, EXPECT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS
FRI MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S INLAND AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
ALONG THE COAST. A FEW TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS MAY DROP TO
THE UPPER TEENS. MOSTLY SUNNY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME S.
HIGHS FRI IN THE LOWER-MID 50S FOR MOST (UPPER 50S SE VA/NE NC).
CIRRUS MOVE IN FROM THE W FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 150 PM EST THURSDAY...
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT
MODERATION IS EXPECTED DURING FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE
COAST AND A LIGHT S FLOW DEVELOPS. HIGHS FRI MAINLY IN THE L50S
N AND NW TO THE M-U50S ELSW. LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL
TO OUR NW FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY ON
SAT. MILDER FRI NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL S FLOW AND CLOUD COVER
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. LOWS FRI NIGHT RANGING FROM
THE U30S NW TO M40S IN COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. CANNOT RULE OUT A
FEW SHRAS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS EARLY AS 4 AM SAT. SHRAS
CHANCES RAMP UP FROM W-E DURING THE DAY SAT AND WILL HAVE
HIGHEST POPS (50-65%) ACROSS THE NW TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA DURING
THE MORNING...SHIFTING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL DRY OUT
QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS HI PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE FA BY
SAT EVENING/NIGHT. QPF IS NO HIGHER THAN 0.1-0.25" SAT GIVEN
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHS SAT MAINLY IN THE 60S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 30S-AROUND 40F.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST FRIDAY...
EXPECTING A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK AS
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK OFF ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
AND MID-ATLANTIC, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BY TUESDAY AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A ZONAL
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME, ALLOWING FOR THE
FRONT TO STALL OR SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT
STALLED NEAR THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THESE DAYS WILL BE IN
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S/50S.
MODELS START TO DIFFER STARTING ON THURSDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WOULD PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF
THE AREA, BRINGING COLDER AIR IN. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER FLORIDA,
BRINGING WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTH. THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRINGS
THE FRONT SOUTH BY LATE FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE COLDER OF THE TWO
MODELS WITH A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC.
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECASTED.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, AND TRACK IT EAST TOWARDS THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. WITH THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION, IT BRINGS
THE FIRST CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER
AND KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, BRINGING
ONLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SKC SKIES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST TERMINALS WITH HIGH
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WINDS ARE LIGHT/CALM TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD, BECOMING S 5-10 KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS NORTH FRIDAY
NIGHT. REMAINING VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY WITH CEILING BETWEEN
10,000 FT AND 20,000 FT.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FA. PERIODS OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM LATE SAT MORNING INTO SAT AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE
FA.
MARINE
AS OF 1015 PM EST THURSDAY...
NW WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 5-10KT OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
SEAS HAVE NOW DROPPED OFF TO ~4 FT FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS SO
HAVE ALLOWED THE REMAINING SCA TO EXPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THEN MOVE OFF THE
COAST BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT, THEN
E-NE BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. IT'S
LIKELY THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE WITH THIS
RECENT FRONT, BUT SCAS ARE LIKELY FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE COAST WILL BE SATURDAY
EVENING OR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...ALB/ERI
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...CP/RMM
MARINE...JDM/LKB
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