112
FXUS61 KAKQ 121827
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
227 PM EDT SUN APR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MILDER TONIGHT, WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING
MONDAY.
2) WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK, WITH RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, WITH FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...MILDER TONIGHT, WITH A WARMING TREND BEGINNING
MONDAY.
LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F ARE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT UNDER A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKY. THE DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW WILL BUMP
THE FRONT BACK TOWARD OUR REGION EARLY MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FACILITATING A STEADY, GRADUAL WARMUP
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE OF
THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT, AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
BY WELL TO OUR NNW LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS WILL
COMPRESS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
INCREASED BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE SSW TOMORROW INTO
TOMORROW EVENING. WARMER TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S INLAND, MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ALONG THE COAST. GIVEN THE
CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, AND WITH WARM, BREEZY CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING MONDAY, CONCERN FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS
BECOMES CONSIDERABLY HIGHER. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND FIRE WEATHER OFFICIALS, WHILE RH AND
WINDS ARE STILL NOT QUITE REACHING CRITERIA FOR ANY FIRE WX
WATCH HEADLINES, AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IS CERTAINLY
WARRANTED. WILL BE ISSUING A "FIRE WEATHER SPS" FOR INLAND VA
COUNTIES MONDAY, MAINLY OVER THE VA NORTHERN NECK INTO CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA, MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-95. GOOD MIXING
WILL ALLOW MIN RH VALUES TO FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE MON
AFTERNOON, AS SSW WINDS GUST TO 20-25 MPH. WILL RE-EVALUATE
HAMPTON ROADS AND THE EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY, BUT WILL HOLD THESE AREAS OUT FOR NOW, WITH MINIMUM RHS
LOOKING TO REMAIN A BIT HIGHER OVER COASTAL AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WELL ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH RECORD TO NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK,
WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ALSO LINGERING FOR MUCH OF THE
PERIOD.
ANOMALOUS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EAST SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND PARKS ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS BERMUDA HIGH SET UP IS MORE TYPICAL TO A PATTERN
SEEN DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS, AND WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO SLOWLY TURN THE HEAT UP OVER THE EAST COAST OVER THE WEEK
AHEAD. HIGHS STILL LOOK TO WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK,
WITH LOW TO MID 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE END OF THE
WEEK INLAND, UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE AND NEAR THE
COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CHALLENGE RECORDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THE CURRENT RECORDS AT OUR LONG-TERM CLIMATE SITES ARE
LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
THE STRONG HIGH REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
AT LEAST THE END OF THE WEEK. AS IS TYPICAL IN THIS SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN, ANY FRONTS APPROACHING THE REGION ARE LIKELY TO WASH
OUT BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. WITH THE VERY WARM AND CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS ONLY SERVING TO WORSEN EXISTING/EMERGING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THE LATEST 8-14 DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK FROM THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ALSO MAINTAINS BELOW NORMAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION. FOR THAT REASON, WHILE THE PREVIOUSLY
REFERENCED BREEZY CONDITIONS EASE A BIT FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BEAR MONITORING FOR MUCH OF
THIS WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID-CLOUD
DECK OF EARLIER IN THE DAY IS GRADUALLY MIXING OUT TO BEGIN THE
18Z TAF PERIOD, AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON. E-SE WINDS ~10 KT
THIS AFTERNOON, SHIFTING TO SSE THIS EVENING, BEFORE BECOMING
SSW LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LLWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT SBY AND RIC OVERNIGHT, COINCIDENT WITH A DEVELOPING,
THOUGH TRANSIENT LLJ. WINDS THEN BECOME INCREASINGLY GUSTY
ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM LATE MON MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING,
AVERAGING 15-18 KT, WITH GUSTS TO ~25 KT.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND WARM, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SSW WINDS PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, BECOMING LESS GUSTY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING IN JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.
MARINE
AS OF 225 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT AND FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
- GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE
OF DAILY, BRIEF SURGES IN THE EVENINGS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NEW
ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR SE WINDS TO INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING S OVERNIGHT. WHILE MARGINAL, SUSTAINED WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
BE NEAR SCA CRITERIA (16-18 KT SUSTAINED WITH HIGHER GUSTS TO 20+
KT) FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE CHES BAY.
WIND PROBS FOR 18 KT SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 45-50% ACROSS THE LOWER
BAY AND 60-70% ACROSS THE UPPER BAY THIS EVENING. AS SUCH, HAVE
ISSUED SCAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WILL NOTE THAT BREEZY
CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MON AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20-25 KT ACROSS THE UPPER RIVERS AND COASTAL
WATERS AND AROUND 20 KT ACROSS THE CHES BAY GIVEN A WELL-MIXED
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED OR FREQUENT GUSTS TO
SCA CRITERIA ON MON REMAINS TOO LOW TO EXTEND THE CURRENT SCAS
THROUGH MON ACROSS MOST OF THE CHES BAY. HOWEVER, WIND PROBS REMAIN
ELEVATED FOR THE UPPER BAY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ON MON. AS SUCH,
HAVE EXTENDED SCAS FOR THIS ZONE THROUGH 1 PM MON. ADDITIONALLY,
SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MON EVENING PRIMARILY DUE TO SEAS BUILDING TO 4-5
FT. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 KT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE RIDGE ALOFT CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS ARE
POSSIBLE (MAINLY IN THE EVENINGS) THROUGH THE WEEK. AS SUCH,
ADDITIONAL MARGINAL SCAS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE, WAVES AND SEAS WERE 1-2 FT (2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE
CHES BAY) AND 3-4 FT RESPECTIVELY THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES INCREASE TO
2-3 FT TONIGHT WITH SEAS INCREASING TO 4-5 FT LATE TONIGHT INTO MON
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WAVES AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN SUB-
SCA CRITERIA FROM TUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR 4/13 - 4/16
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR HIGH/YEAR
LOCATION 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 91 (1977) 90 (1977) 92 (1941) 93 (1976)
NORFOLK 88 (1977) 90 (1941) 90 (2024) 91 (1976)
SALISBURY 87 (2023) 87 (1941) 87 (1941) 89 (1976)
ELIZ. CITY 90 (1948) 90 (1941) 91 (1941) 90 (1941)
RECORD HIGH MIN TEMPS FOR 4/13 - 4/16
RECORD RECORD RECORD RECORD
HIGH HIGH HIGH HIGH
MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR MIN T/YEAR
LOCATION 4/13 4/14 4/15 4/16
-------- ---- ----- ------ ------
RICHMOND 64 (1994) 65 (1899) 64 (2018) 64 (1912)
NORFOLK 65 (1994) 68 (2019) 68 (1941) 66 (2017)
SALISBURY 62 (2019) 65 (1945) 64 (2002) 63 (2017)
ELIZ. CITY 67 (2019) 68 (2019) 68 (1974) 68 (1994)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075-076-079>083-087-
088-509>522.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
DISCUSSION...MAM/NB
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...RMM
CLIMATE...MAM
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