607
FXUS61 KAKQ 141941
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
341 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST-
CENTRAL VA AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH MAINLY DRY WX.
2) INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND, WITH VERY WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...HOT CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS
PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH WITH MAINLY
DRY WX.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG, ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE (H5 HEIGHTS ~600 DM!) CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DISPLACED WELL NORTH TO THE EAST OF
HUDSON BAY (AND WEAK UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS). AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE
REGION, WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. OVERALL, A
FAIRLY PLEASANT AFTERNOON FOR MID-JULY WITH TEMPS IN THE
PRIMARILY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND DEW PTS IN THE 60S UNDER A
MAINLY SUNNY SKY. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY SLIDES OFFSHORE. EARLY MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY
WILL DROP INTO THE 60S INLAND, WITH SOME LOWER 70S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SHORE.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS E-SE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON WEDNESDAY,
ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE, BRINGING INCREASING TEMPERATURES AREA-
WIDE. HUMIDITY LEVELS LOOK TO STAY MODERATE KEEPING AFTN HEAT
INDICES FROM RISING MUCH ABOVE AMBIENT AIR TEMPERATURES. WITH
THE CORE OF THE RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WED, THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES (AND HEAT INDICES) WILL BE OVER EAST
CENTRAL VA AND THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE. DEW PTS WILL TEND TO
MIX OUT INTO THE UPPER 60S, BUT WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 F, STILL
ANTICIPATE SEEING A PERIOD WITH HEAT INDICES TO ~105F, SO A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM CAROLINE CO. EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NECK AND INTO THE MD EASTERN SHORE. ALSO INCLUDED
ACCOMACK VA. WITH A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, A
W-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PUSH HOT TEMPERATURES TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST (I.E OCEAN CITY AND WALLOPS TO 95-100 DEGREES). AREAS TO
THE SOUTH WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER (AND WITH DEW PTS INTO THE
60S), HEAT INDICES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S.
THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE HOTTEST DAY, WITH UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100F FAIRLY WIDESPREAD (A LITTLE COOLER IN THE MID 90S
OVER SE VA AND NE NC). CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS THAT HEAT
ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE SOUTH
(THOUGH WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DEPENDING ON HOW DEW PTS MIX OUT).
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN SUPPRESSED AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH
MOST OF THURSDAY, THOUGH WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE (~20%) POP
THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE AS A WEAK SFC FRONT
POTENTIALLY DROPS SOUTH BEFORE WASHING OUT. ON FRIDAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE COOLER (AT LEAST ALONG THE
COAST AND THE EASTERN SHORE). ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE
NEEDED ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC HOWEVER. A LOW CHC FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND,
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND,
AS UPPER TROUGHING RE-ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CONUS. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THERE IS INCREASING MODEL
CONSENSUS THAT THIS WEAKENING FRONT MAY LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
INTO MONDAY. WHILE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING
THE EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE OF STORMS, THE UPPER FLOW TURNING
WNW-NW OVER A HOT, AND INCREASING HUMID MOISTURE- POOLED
BOUNDARY LAYER SETS UP A CLIMATOLOGICALLY-FAVORED PATTERN FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DOWNBURSTS. LOW- LEVEL FRONTAL
FORCING APPEARS WEAK, TYPICAL OF MID- JULY, BUT MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE SLOW- MOVING BOUNDARY BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES FAVOR A HOT, MUGGY, HIGH DCAPE SETUP CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EACH DAY
THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO MONDAY. AREAL COVERAGE
OF THESE STORMS WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON SHORTWAVE TIMING,
WHICH IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME RANGE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS
THREAT WILL BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT WITH HIGH DEW PTS (ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC), MAY SEE HEAT INDICES ~105 F THROUGH
SUNDAY IF NOT MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EDT TUESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TURNING TO THE SW
TONIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK: DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. AN
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE AT SBY THU EVENING, BUT THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ARRIVES MAINLY WEST OF KRIC ON FRIDAY,
WITH BETTER CHANCES AREA WIDE COMING LATER SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE FOCUSED NEAR THE AREA.
AN ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS ARE LIGHT AREAWIDE, BUT THE
DIRECTION VARIES FROM THE E-NE ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND OCEAN S OF
CAPE CHARLES TO THE S-SW FURTHER N. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE S FOR
ALL AREAS BY THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA. SW WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 10-15 KT FOR A
TIME TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH NO SCAS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SEAS HAVE ALSO CONTINUED TO TREND
LOWER FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING WITH A GENERAL 2-3 FT, EXCEPT 3-4 FT
IN THE NC WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY, ALLOWING FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH S-
SW WINDS. A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, WHICH SHOULD SHIFT WINDS TO THE E-NE FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW
COULD APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 2 FT TO END
THE WEEK, INCREASING TO 3-4 FT AS S WINDS INCREASE LATER SATURDAY.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE NC BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH MODERATE ELSEWHERE. A LOW RISK IS LIKELY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
- RECORD HIGHS:
- WED 7/15 THU 7/16 FRI 7/17
- RIC: 100 (1995) 101 (1980) 100 (1980)
- ORF: 101 (1995) 102 (1879) 100 (1887)
- SBY: 100 (1995) 99 (1915) 99 (2012)
- ECG: 97 (1997) 98 (1995) 99 (1942)
- RECORD HIGH MINS:
- THU 7/16 FRI 7/17
- RIC: 77 (1983) 77 (2025)
- ORF: 80 (1995) 80 (2024)
- SBY: 78 (2024) 80 (1983)
- ECG: 79 (2012) 80 (2019)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...NONE.
VA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ064-
075>078-085-099-517-519>522.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...KMC/SW
CLIMATE...LKB
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