298
FXUS61 KAKQ 220024
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
724 PM EST FRI FEB 21 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST TONIGHT AND WILL LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES FOR MOST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY SCATTERED
CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SNOW COVER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA ERODING RATHER QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH MUCH OF THE SOLAR HEATING FROM
TODAY GOING TOWARD MELTING SNOW/EVAPORATING MELT WATER RATHER THAN
HEATING THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER. IN ADDITION, COLD ADVECTION ON
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS IS ALSO KEEPING TEMPERATURES DOWN. DRY AIR IS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
GENERALLY NW OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM CHASE CITY TO PETERSBURG TO
TAPPAHANNOCK WITH TEENS AND LOW 20S EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S IN AREAS THAT
HAD LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL YESTERDAY TO LOW AND MID 30S IN AREAS
THAT SAW THE MOST ACCUMULATION.
CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. LOWS FROM
THE MID-TEENS IN THE COLDEST SPOTS TO THE LOW-MID 20S COAST. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR ANY AREAS OF REMAINING SNOWFALL/MELT WATER FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE FORMATION TONIGHT AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING ONCE AGAIN. WILL LIKELY HANDLE THIS THREAT WITH SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENTS FOR THE AFFECTED AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP SHOP OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND LEADING TO
CLEAR SKIES AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL
CLIMB BACK TO SEASONABLE LEVELS, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE
LOW AND MID 50S. WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT OVER THE
SINGLE DIGIT DEW POINTS WE ARE SEEING TODAY. NOT QUITE AS COLD
SATURDAY NIGHT, LOWS IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOW 30S
AT THE COAST. TEMPERATURES MODERATE FURTHER ON SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S TO PERHAPS LOW 60S IN A FEW SPOTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OK/TX
MONDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL AREA MIGRATES
OFFSHORE. WILL SHOW INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE DAY
ON MONDAY WITH AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF I-95 HAVING THE RELATIVE
GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIP BEFORE SUNSET. HIGHS ON MONDAY
WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50S WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH POPS INCREASING TO 70-80% BY EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SECOND AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ALONG A DEEP TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE REGION. THIS SECOND LOW WILL TRACK INLAND ALONG THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY, BRINGING WITH
IT ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S IN THE NW TO THE
UPPER 40S IN THE SE. LOW TEMPS TUES NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW
40S IN THE NW TO THE LOW 50S IN THE SE. LOW TEMPS WED NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE NW TO THE LOW 40S IN THE SE. LOW TEMPS
ON THURS NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-20S IN THE NW AND LOW 30S IN
THE SE. LOW TEMPS ON FRI NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST RANGING FROM THE
LOW 20S IN THE NW TO THE LOW 30S IN THE SE. HIGH TEMPS TUES AND WED
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN THE N TO THE LOW-MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE NW TO THE
MID-50S IN THE SE. HIGH TEMPS ON FRI WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 40S
IN THE NW TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE SE.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 715 PM EST FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO AND OVER THE AREA FOR THIS EVENING
INTO SAT EVENING, PROVIDING VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES AND
MAINLY SKC. NNE WINDS 5-10 KT NEAR THE COAST THIS EVENING, WILL
BECOME LIGHT NNW OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE W THEN SW
5-10 KT DURING SAT.
OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF THE COAST DURING SUN WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AND SSW WINDS 5-10 KT CONTINUING. RAIN SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER MON AFTN
THROUGH TUE AFTN, AS A WARM FRONT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
AFFECTS THE REGION.
MARINE
AS OF 320 PM EST FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE THAT IMPACTED THE AREA OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO PULL WELL
AWAY FROM THE AREA, AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL FOR THE
WEEKEND. N/NE WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
10-20 KTS FOR THE BAY AND UPPER COASTAL WATERS AND 20-25 KTS FOR THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE GALE WARNINGS FOR CURRITUCK SOUND AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS WERE REPLACED WITH SCA'S. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND BY LATER THIS EVENING FALL BELOW SCA
HOWEVER ELEVATED SEAS WILL HOLD SCA IN PLACE FOR THE MIDDLE COASTAL
WATERS UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING AND THE LOWER COASTAL WATERS UNTIL AT
LEAST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WAVES IN THE BAY 3-5 FT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 2-3 FT LATE TONIGHT. SEAS ARE RUNNING 5-7
FT NORTH TO 7-11 FT SOUTH, AND WILL DIMINISH TO 3-5 FT NORTH AND 5-7
FT SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE CURRITUCK OUTER
BANKS WAS EXTENDED A FEW HOURS LONGER TONIGHT FOR NEARSHORE WAVES
RIGHT AROUND 8 FT.
WINDS ON SATURDAY BECOME WESTERLY 10-15 KTS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO
OUR SOUTH BY LATE IN THE DAY. SUNDAY THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AND THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY 5-10 KTS BY LATE IN THE DAY. WAVES IN
THE BAY 1-2 FT ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 1 FT ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED AND SLOW TO SUBSIDE ON SATURDAY 2-4 FT NORTH AND 3-5
FT SOUTH. CALMER SEAS EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH 2-3 FT NORTH AND 2-4 FT
SOUTH.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND IS PROJECTED TO PASS NORTH
OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY TRAILING A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH S/SW WINDS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY TO 10-15 KTS. WAVES IN THE BAY 1-2 FT AND SEAS 2-4 FT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ632>634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...CMF/LKB
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