259
FXUS61 KAKQ 150620
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
220 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. DID LOWER DEW POINTS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA DUE TO FAIRLY DEEP MIXING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST TODAY DUE TO THE
EXPECTED STRONG SEA BREEZE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEK. NEXT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AS OF 215 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND STARTS TODAY AND
CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. NO RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AT LEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE TN VALLEY WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TODAY THEN OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY MORNING. GENERALLY SUNNY TODAY AND
WARMER THAN THURSDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A TAD
BELOW NORMAL WITH 850MB TEMPS STILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. COASTAL
AREAS WILL HAVE A STRONG SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD KEEPS
IN THE 60S. ELSEWHERE, LOW-MID 70S EXPECTED. MAIN CHANGE AWAY FROM
NBM GUIDANCE TODAY IS TO LOWER DEW POINTS DUE TO EXPECTED DEEP
MIXING IN THE CONTINUED NW FLOW.
SATURDAY STARTS THE SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WITH UPPER RIDING ACROSS THE
AREA WITH A STRENGTHENING HIGH OFF THE SE COAST ALLOWING FOR
INCREASINGLY SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS HIGH WILL STAY IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING. THE MULTI-
MODEL SUPERENSEMBLE SUGGESTS A 50-65% PROBABILITY OF TEMPERATURES OF
AT LEAST 90 ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY. COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL
BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT WITH THE 700MB RIDGE OVERHEAD. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NEARLY A 100% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 90 AWAY FROM
THE COAST WITH ABOUT A 20-40% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 95 DEGREES.
WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT AND DRY SOILS, IT WOULD SEEM LIKE A PUSH
INTO THE LOW-MID 90S IS NOT UNREASONABLE. LUCKILY, DEW POINTS WILL
ONLY RISE INTO THE LOW-MID 60S SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STILL
STAY BELOW 100F. A FRONT ATTEMPTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA PERHAPS AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT THERE IS A GREAT AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN OR IF THIS FRONT WILL ACTUALLY PASS THROUGH THE
AREA. THIS IS SHOWN IN THE LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE 25TH-75TH PERCENTILE TEMPERATURE SPREAD OF CLOSE TO 20
DEGREES ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CURRENTLY MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER REMAINS OVER MD/DE AND
NORTHERN VA. CIGS CURRENTLY AROUND 5000 FT BUT THE CIGS MAY
LOWER SLIGHTLY AT SBY EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE THE OVC
SCATTERED OUT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TN VALLEY
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY THEN OFFSHORE BY SATURDAY.
PERHAPS SOME DIURNAL CUMULUS AT AROUND 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT NW WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT TO DECREASE
THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE.
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL
TERMINALS AND NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND TIDAL RIVERS OF EASTERN VIRGINIA.
- MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PIVOTING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND IS PRIMARILY N TO NE 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20KT. SEAS ARE 3-4FT WITH ~2FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. A
MINOR SURGE OF COLD AND DRY ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASES TO 15-20KT ACROSS THE CHES. BAY AND TIDAL
RIVERS, WITH GUSTS TO ~25KT IN THE CHES. BAY. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE CHES. BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4FT IN THE COASTAL
WATERS AND BUILD TO 5-7FT IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 20-60NM, WITH
2-3FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. SCAS LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, THE WIND SHOULD DROP OFF SHARPLY BY FRIDAY AFTN AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SETTLES OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND BECOMES
ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. PRIMARILY SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634>637-639.
DISCUSSION...MRD
AVIATION...MRD
MARINE...AJZ
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