826
FXUS61 KAKQ 040641
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
241 AM EDT FRI JUL 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH, WITH LOWER HUMIDITY EXPECTED.
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST DRIFTS NORTH SUNDAY,
BRINGING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, WITH
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS AND SEASONABLE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
- DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY WITH LOWER HUMIDITY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED OVER THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE FA AS
OF EARLY MORNING SFC ANALYSIS. ALOFT, LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER CANADA
(N OF VT/NH) WITH A TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF
THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT.
LATEST OBS REFLECT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S (UPPER 70S ON
EASTERN SHORE). ALSO SEEING SOME PATCHY FOG, WHICH SHOULD CLEAR UP
WHEN THE FRONT COMES THROUGH OR BY SUNRISE (WHICHEVER COMES FIRST).
LOWS THIS MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY PLEASANT HOLIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPS. DEWPOINTS DROP INTO THE 60S TODAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT, MEANING IT WILL BE MUCH LESS HUMID THAN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER OVER NE NC AND EXTREME SOUTHERN VA. REMAINING
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
INLAND AND AROUND 70 IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES SATURDAY
- MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST LIFTS NORTHWARD.
PLEASANT WEATHER CONTINUES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE SAT WHILE A RIDGE
SLIDES OVERHEAD ALOFT. SAT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY AND SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH HIGHS UPPER 80S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE, BUT WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM THE SE THROUGH
THE DAY. SAT NIGHT WILL HAVE LOWS IN THE MID 60S INLAND AND LOW 70S
RIGHT AT THE COAST. SUN WILL BE WHERE THE PATTERN TAKES A TURN BACK
TO HUMIDITY AND INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP
OFF THE COAST OF GA/THE CAROLINAS SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON HOW STRONG OF A LOW
IT WILL BE AND WHERE IT GOES FROM THERE. WILL NOTE THAT THE NHC DOES
HAVE A 50% CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION IN 48 HOURS ON IT. WHAT IS
CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODELS, THOUGH, IS THAT THE ONLY REAL IMPACT
FROM THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM HERE LOCALLY IS INCREASED HUMIDITY AND
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE SE FLOW N OF THE LOW. ON SUNDAY, STORM CHANCES
ARE GENERALLY CONFINED S OF I-64 (30-60%, HIGHEST S), BUT COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE N. SHOWERS/STORMS MAY CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MON
WITH CHC POPS NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING, THEN SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
SE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE UPPER 80S, SO WE AT
LEAST WON'T BE DEALING WITH HIGH HEAT INDICES DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID-UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID BY NEXT WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING STORM CHANCES.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BE UNSETTLED FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
COASTAL LOW FINALLY PUSHES NE. ALSO, A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT
LAKES LOOKS TO STALL OUT NEAR OR OVER THE FA. THE RESULT WILL BE
WILL BE WEATHER PRETTY TYPICAL FOR JULY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S
AND DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S. HUMIDITY CONTINUES AS WELL, BUT HEAT INDICES
SHOULD STAY AT OR UNDER 103F.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SKIES ARE GENERALLY
CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCT CLOUD COVER OVER SBY. SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO SCT
ACROSS THE SE IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. COULD SEE SOME
PATCHY FOG AT RIC (3-5 SM) THIS MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME NORTHERLY AT ~10KT BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT LATER THIS MORNING. WIND THEN TURN ONSHORE BY THIS
EVENING.
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR BUILDS
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY, MAINLY SOUTH, AND ALL AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA/BENIGN CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COULD BRING ELEVATED SOUTHEAST
WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL
MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. WINDS ARE STILL SW AT 5-10 KT WITH
2 FT SEAS/1-2 FT WAVES. HOWEVER, EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NNE AT 10-15
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT FOLLOWING THE FROPA. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW
GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT IN THE LOWER BAY AND SE VA COASTAL WATERS. THE
HIGHEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR BETWEEN 5 AM-NOON BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT BY THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL INCREASE
TO ~3 FT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF 2-3 FT WAVES POSSIBLE ON THE BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES N OF THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH E-
NE WINDS OF 5-10 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT, BECOMING E-ESE AND INCREASING
TO 10-15 KT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS AVERAGE ~2 FT. UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY THE VERY END OF THE WEEKEND AS A SUBTROPICAL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OFF THE SC/GA COAST BEFORE POTENTIALLY
APPROACHING THE AREA LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. NHC STILL HAS A MEDIUM
(60%) PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT SOME
POINT WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SSE WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINING NEAR 15 KT
THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME S AND DIMINISH MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE AS THE LOW SLOWLY EXITS. WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PIN DOWN
SPECIFICS, A SHORT PERIOD OF SCAS IS POSSIBLE LATE SUN-MON (ALTHOUGH
PREVAILING SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST PART OF THAT
TIME). VARIABLE MARINE CONDITIONS RETURN TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND DIURNAL SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...AC
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...ERI
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