441  
FXUS61 KAKQ 180255  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
955 PM EST SUN FEB 17 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, AND LIFT NORTHEAST  
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS  
RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES  
NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN  
STALLS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 950 PM EST SUNDAY...  
 
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS FROM COASTAL SRN NC/SC TO NW  
GA...WHILE LO PRES WAS FOUND ACROSS THE ERN OH/TN VALLEY W/ ITS  
TRAILING COLD FRONT ON SW TO OFF THE SE TX COAST. WIDESPREAD RA  
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT. HAD  
EARLIER REPORTS OF T WNW OF RIC ASSOCIATED W/ AN ENHANCED PIECE  
OF FORCING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOLD GENERALLY STEADY  
OR EVEN RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT...RANGING FROM THE M-U30S NNW TO  
THE 40S S AND SE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 350 PM EST SUNDAY...  
 
THIS WAVE PUSHES OFF THE COAST MON MORNING WITH PCPN TAPERING  
OFF WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING (LINGERING THE LONGEST IN FAR SE  
VA/NE NC). SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY  
BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTN. OVERALL, MON SHOULD TURN OUT TO  
BE A NICER DAY AND MUCH MILDER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S,  
POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO THE LOWER 60S IN NE NC.  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COLD MON NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE  
MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S SE COAST AS STRONG SFC  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. REMAINING DRY, BUT  
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON TUE ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPS WITH  
HIGHS IN THE 40S DUE TO NNE FLOW.  
 
LATEST 12Z/17 SUITE OF MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH  
A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM EJECTING NE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO  
TUE NIGHT AND TRACKING THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEY AS STRONG SFC  
HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE NE CONUS, SLOWLY RETREATING ENE  
INTO NEW ENGLAND. AS IT SHOULD BE INITIALLY RATHER COLD TUE  
NIGHT/WED MORNING, THIS PATTERN FAVORS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN  
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION,  
WHILE SE PORTIONS WILL TEND TO QUICKLY CHANGE TO ALL RAIN WED  
MORNING. EXACT POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH WILL BE KEY  
IN HOW LONG COLD AIR CAN STAY IN PLACE. FIRST CUT AT P-TYPE AND  
SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE FOR 3-4" OF SNOW IN THE NW WITH  
LESS THAN ONE INCH OVER FAR SOUTHERN/SE VA AND NE NC. TYPICAL  
BATTLE ZONE WED MORNING WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS METRO RICHMOND.  
RATHER WARM MID LEVEL/ H85-H7 THICKNESSES SUGGEST PERIOD FOR ALL  
SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO EARLY WED AM, THEN TRANSITIONING TO  
SLEET AND POTENTIALLY SOME FREEZING RAIN IN AREAS THAT CAN  
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 32F THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTN. HAVE A ZONE OF  
UP TO 0,10" OF ICE ACCUMULATION ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. WILL  
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHING THIS SCENARIO, AS SLIGHT CHANGES COULD  
LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO WINTRY PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE AREA,  
OR HIGHER AMOUNTS IF THE SFC HIGH ENDS UP STRONGER/COLDER THAN  
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HIGHS WED IN THE MID 30S NW, TO THE  
LOWER-MID 50S NE NC.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
AS OF 350 PM EST SUNDAY...  
 
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS  
LATE THIS WEEK, WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED A  
FEW HUNDRED MILES E OF THE BAHAMAS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN  
THE RESULTING SW FLOW ALOFT ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM THU  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH LESS COLD AIR IN PLACE (WHEN COMPARED TO  
TUE NIGHT-WED), EXPECT THAT PCPN REMAINS IN THE FORM OF RA  
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  
 
PERIODS OF RA CONTINUE WED NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY MOVES N AS  
THE CAD/WEDGE PATTERN ERODES. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLOWLY RISING  
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE AREA WED NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE  
INTO THE LOW 40S NW WHILE 50S PREVAIL OVER SE VA/NE NC BY SUNRISE  
THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON THU. THIS  
MAY GIVE US A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN FROM THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT  
(ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-64/E OF I-95). HOWEVER, RAIN WILL QUICKLY  
OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION AGAIN FRI NIGHT-SAT AS THE WRN UPPER  
TROUGH DEAMPLIFIES/STARTS TO MOVE E. AT THE SAME TIME, A WARM FRONT  
LIFTS N TOWARD THE REGION, ALLOWING A CAD/WEDGE PATTERN TO SET UP  
OVER THE CWA LATE FRI-SAT. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N OF THE CWA SAT  
NIGHT AS SFC LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO OUR W/NW BUT RAIN CHANCES  
CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES FINALLY DECREASE BY SUN NIGHT AS THE AREA OF  
SFC LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR N AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT  
CROSSES THE REGION. STILL ANTICIPATING A PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK AS  
AN UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WHILE AS A UPPER LOW  
BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE HUDSON BAY. THE FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO  
REMAIN ZONAL OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS (LEADING TO A PERIOD OF QUIETER  
WX).  
 
DESPITE THE RAIN ON THU, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S-LOW 60S IN  
MOST AREAS (W/ MID 60S IN SE VA/NE NC). LOWS THU NIGHT WILL RANGE  
FROM THE MID-UPPER 30 N TO THE LOW-MID 40S S. HIGHS FRI WILL BE IN  
THE UPPER 40S-LOW 50S IN MOST AREAS. LOWS ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER  
30S-LOW 40S FRI NIGHT. HIGHS SAT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO  
AROUND 60F SE. WARMER ON SUN AS FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S-  
UPPER 60S (COOLEST N/NW, WARMEST IN NE NC).  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 645 PM EST SUNDAY...  
 
MVFR CIGS PREVAIL FROM RIC-ECG SOUTHWESTWARD (W/ IFR CIGS NOT  
TOO FAR SW OF RIC) THIS EVENING AS AN AREA OF RA HAS OVERSPREAD THE  
NRN HALF OF VA (INCLUDING SOME -RA AT RIC). EXPECT THIS AREA OF RA  
TO MOVE INTO SBY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, WHILE MISSING THE  
SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS TO THE N. WIDESPREAD RA (AND THUS REDUCED  
VSBYS) WILL HOLD OFF ACROSS THE SE UNTIL ~03Z OR SO. CIGS SLOWLY  
LOWER TO IFR FROM W TO E FROM 02-06Z AS THE RA MOVES IN. IFR (OR  
EVEN OCCASIONAL LIFR) CIGS THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
NIGHT. VSBYS WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN 2-5SM IN THE RAIN THROUGH THE  
NIGHT BEFORE RAIN TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E BETWEEN 12-16Z. EXPECT SLOW  
IMPROVEMENT MON MORNING, WITH CIGS LIFTING TO MVFR AT RIC BY ~12Z.  
IFR CIGS MAY HANG ON A COUPLE HOURS LONGER NEAR THE COAST BEFORE  
LIFTING TO MVFR. GFS LAMP GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING IFR CIGS TO  
PREVAIL NEAR THE COAST (ESPECIALLY NEAR ECG) UNTIL MIDDAY, BUT DID  
NOT GO THIS FAR W/ PREVAILING IFR IN THE TAFS ATTM. WINDS REMAIN AOB  
10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WNW BY LATE  
MORNING/AFTN AND MAY GUST TO 20 KT OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER MON AFTN.  
 
OUTLOOK...PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE WEEK. REMAINING DRY/VFR  
MON NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF TUE, BUT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE  
LIKELY TUE NIGHT/WED AS ANOTHER SYSTEM AFFECT THE REGION. A LOT OF  
UNCERTAINTY, BUT SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION IS MORE LIKELY AT  
KRIC/KSBY THAN AT KORF/KPHF/KECG WHERE MOST OF THE EVENT LOOKS LIKE  
RAIN. PERIODIC IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND  
MORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THU/FRI.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 350 PM EST SUNDAY...  
 
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW E TO SE WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVER  
THE WATERS. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 4 FEET AND WAVES IN THE BAY 1 TO  
2 FEET. A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT  
SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM SE TO SW WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15  
KNOTS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TOMORROW NIGHT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO  
THE REGION. EXPECT NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL  
GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND NW WINDS  
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE BAY/CURRITUCK SOUND. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD  
TO AROUND 5 FEET OR GREATER, ESPECIALLY OUT 20 NM. AS A RESULT, HAVE  
HOISTED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL MARINE ZONES MINUS THE  
RIVERS. WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
MAKING A BRIEF RETURN TO THE REGION. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
APPROACHES THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND IMPACTS THE AREA INTO  
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS  
YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
AKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO A BROKEN PART THAT IS ON ORDER AND  
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE MON. FTM AND USOS SENT.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR  
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY  
FOR ANZ633.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR  
ANZ656-658.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LKB  
NEAR TERM...ALB  
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB  
LONG TERM...ERI  
AVIATION...ERI/LKB  
MARINE...AJB/AJZ  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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