264  
FXUS61 KAKQ 020802  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
302 AM EST SAT MAR 2 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WIDESPREAD RAIN CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF WEAK LOW  
PRESSURE. RAIN WILL BECOME CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS BY THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH LOW PRESSURE LIFTING AWAY FROM THE REGION THIS  
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA  
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST LATE MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 250 AM EST SATURDAY...  
 
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL HAS OVERSPREAD THE  
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER  
EASTERN GA/SC. ALOFT, A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE OHIO  
VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY.  
 
RAINFALL AND CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE EASTERN  
HALF OF THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY  
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND AREA-WIDE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON  
WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT BY LATE AFTERNOON.  
HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NW (WHERE DRIER AIR  
WILL ALLOW SOME WETBULB COOLING) TO LOW/MID 60S EAST OF I-95. SOME  
UPPER 60S ARE FORECAST FOR THE SE, TO THE EAST OF LOW PRESSURE  
LIFTING NORTH TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT  
ALONG THE COAST WITH LOW STRATUS LIKELY TO REDEVELOP AFTER SUNSET.  
00Z GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT WITH RESPECT TO FOG POTENTIAL  
TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATED LOW LEVELS LINGERING INTO  
THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT WITH SOME DRYING MOVING IN LATE. LOW TEMPS  
TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NW TO THE LOW 50S SE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 250 AM EST SATURDAY...  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD  
ALLOW FOR MORE SUNSHINE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
LINGERS ALONG THE COAST IN ONSHORE FLOW, HOWEVER, LEADING TO HIGH  
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S INLAND WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ALONG THE  
COAST. A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS NEAR THE CAROLINAS LATE SUNDAY WITH  
INCREASING POPS FOR THE SE QUARTER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH LOW  
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.  
 
00Z MODELS ARE NOW IN DECENT AGREEMENT REGARDING WEAK LOW PRESSURE  
LIFTING NORTHWARD NEAR/ALONG THE COAST LATE MONDAY BUT DETAILS FOR  
TIMING AND TRACK DIFFER. WILL SHOW CHANCE POPS ALONG COAST WITH  
SLIGHT CHANCES EXTENDING INLAND TO THE EAST OF I-95. TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE WARMEST INLAND (MID 60S) AND COOLER NEAR THE COAST (UPPER  
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES). LOW TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE  
MID TO UPPER 40S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
AS OF 250 AM EST SATURDAY...  
 
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ON TUESDAY WITH MOST OF  
THE MOISTURE/LIFT EXITING THE LOCAL AREA BY MID MORNING. SOME DRIER  
AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL ALLOW FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY  
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S INLAND WITH 60S  
ALONG THE COAST.  
 
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY  
APPROACH FROM THE SW TUESDAY EVENING WITH CHANCE POPS SPREADING INTO  
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. MILD OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER  
40S TO LOW 50S. GUIDANCE DIVERGES WITH RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND  
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH GFS BRINGING THE LOW NORTHWARD  
WELL INLAND AND ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF  
AND CMC SHOW A TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS ON  
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE BLENDED APPROACH, SHOWING LIKELY  
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S NW TO  
AROUND 70 SE. CONFINED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TO THE FAR SE PORTION  
OF THE AREA BUT IF A TRACK MORE LIKE THE GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES WE  
COULD SEE MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER AND GUSTY WINDS IN THE WARM  
SECTOR.  
 
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY  
PERSISTENT SW FLOW ALOFT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE AREAS OF LOW  
PRESSURE TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. REMAINING MILD WITH HIGHS  
GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 250 AM EST SATURDAY...  
 
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING  
WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM SW TO NE. IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY  
AT ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z THIS MORNING. IFR AND POTENTIALLY LIFR  
CIGS LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE SOME GRADUAL  
IMPROVEMENT SPREADS NE THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL HANG ON  
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT WITH AREAS OF IFR STRATUS OR FOG  
POSSIBLE. WINDS OUT OF THE E-SE 5-10 KT (INCREASING TO 10-15  
KT ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING) VEER AROUND TO THE W-SW BEHIND  
THE SYSTEM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SOME GUSTS ~20 KT  
ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.  
 
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE,  
POTENTIALLY LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY VFR  
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY WITH WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE  
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW  
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SW LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 250 AM EST SATURDAY...  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING, WEAK (~1022 MB) LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED NEAR THE  
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE, ~1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS  
CENTERED OFF THE NE COAST. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OFF TO THE  
NE THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA, EVENTUALLY PASSING JUST WEST OF THE LOCAL  
WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN AS THE LOW APPROACHES, ALLOWING  
FOR SE WINDS TO QUICKLY INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO  
30 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE PROBABILITY OF  
WIDESPREAD GALES REMAINS VERY LOW, BUT A FEW MODELS SHOW THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED WIND GUSTS  
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AFTER SUNRISE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON  
HOURS. SEAS AND WAVES WILL ALSO RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 5 TO 7 FEET (4  
TO 5 FEET NEARSHORE) AND 3 TO 5 FEET DURING THIS PERIOD. THE  
ELEVATED WINDS WILL BE RATHER SHORT DURATION AND MOST AREAS SHOULD  
BE SUB-SCA (AT LEAST FOR WINDS) BY 21Z-00Z SUN. ELEVATED SEAS IN  
EXCESS OF 5 FEET ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY  
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THUS THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO  
SUNDAY NIGHT (06Z). WINDS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH CALMER  
AND PRIMARILY OUT OF THE N/NE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM  
APPROACHES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER  
INCREASE IN WIND, THOUGH APPEARING TO REMAIN SUB-SCA AT THIS TIME.  
HOWEVER, SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD AGAIN WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF 5+ FT  
SEAS LIKELY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THUS ADDITIONAL SCAS. THE  
UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE AFTER THIS TIMEFRAME WITH YET  
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING BY MID TO LATE WEEK.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
SOME PRELIMINARY WINTER (DEC-FEB) STATISTICS:  
 
* RIC: WETTEST WINTER ON RECORD (17.97").  
* RIC: 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD (44.0F).  
 
* SBY: 9TH WETTEST ON RECORD (15.44").  
* SBY: 8TH WARMEST ON RECORD (42.47F).  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
ANZ630>632-638.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST  
MONDAY FOR ANZ650.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST MONDAY  
FOR ANZ652-654.  
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...RHR  
NEAR TERM...RHR  
SHORT TERM...RHR  
LONG TERM...RHR  
AVIATION...MAM/RHR  
MARINE...AJB/SW  
CLIMATE...  
 
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