680
FXUS61 KAKQ 050232
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
932 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT, ALONG WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
2) A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A SLOW-MOVING FRONT WILL
LINGER NEAR AND NORTH OF THE AREA, BRINGING ABOUT PERIODIC BOUTS
OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
3) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS)
INCREASE LATER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 930 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...PATCHY FOG ALONG THE COAST ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT,
ALONG WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
MID-EVENING ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS, WITH A STATIONARY (OR VERY SLOW- MOVING)
FRONT NOW ROUGHLY ALIGNED ALONG THE US-460 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN
VA, EXTENDING WESTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. FLOW ALOFT
IS LARGELY QUASI-ZONAL WITH A SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX NOTED ATOP
THE FRONTAL ZONE SLIDING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THE COMBINATION
OF THIS FEATURE AND SOME WEAK OVERRUNNING MOISTURE HAS ALLOWED
THE FRONT TO SAG BACK SOUTH, PUSHING WINDS ONSHORE AND COOLING
OFF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ALONG THE COAST, WITH UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA NORTH OF
THE FRONT, WITH MILDER LOW TO MID 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN NC. HAVE PUSHED POPS INTO HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY
RANGE OVER MD ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THU. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF WITH ANY SHOWERS TONIGHT, BUT
EXPECT FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL IN THE
WAKE OF THESE SHOWERS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
MUCH MORE PLEASANT TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A SIGNIFICANT WARMUP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, A SLOW-
MOVING FRONT WILL LINGER NEAR AND NORTH OF THE AREA, BRINGING
ABOUT PERIODIC BOUTS OF ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE
COAST, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE.
A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PLAY OUT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK, WITH WARM AND PLEASANT CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
THE AREA AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT N OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY MAY ALLOW THE SURFACE FRONT TO MAKE A BIT MORE
SOUTHWESTWARD PROGRESS. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY WITH
RESPECT TO HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST THE COOLER AIR CAN MAKE IT ON
FRIDAY. THE GFS/GEFS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH COLD AIR
EXTENT VS THE WARMER ECMWF AND CMC.
KEY MESSAGE 3...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS (AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS) INCREASE LATER THIS WEEKEND.
AFTER THE WARMUP (FOR AREAS THAT TREND COOLER FRIDAY), A MORE
PROMINENT UPPER TROUGH DIVES SE AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE FOR THE 2ND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (30-50%
POPS SAT NIGHT NW, PUSHING TO THE S ON SUNDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES ACROSS FROM THE NW. THIS FRONT LIKELY STALLS OR DISSIPATES
OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLES ARE NOT SHOWING A
HEAVY RAINFALL SIGNAL AT THIS TIME, GENERALLY AVERAGING ~0.1" TO
0.3" THROUGH THE PERIOD. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM,
ESPECIALLY SAT EVENING AND AGAIN SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT AS MLCAPE
BEGINS TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 700 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO BEGIN THE 00Z/05 TAF PERIOD, BUT A
FRONT IS POISED JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA AND IS FORECAST TO
MEANDER SOUTHWARD TOWARD SBY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND LIKELY IMPACT
SBY LATE THIS EVENING, WITH IFR CIGS LIKELY TO SOON FOLLOW A
FEW HOURS LATER. GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
OVERNIGHT AT SBY BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN FOR IFR OR LIFR
CIGS SO WILL HANDLE THIS POTENTIAL AND THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
LIGHT RAIN WITH A PROB30. GUIDANCE IS SPLIT REGARDING HOW
QUICKLY CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT SBY THURSDAY MORNING. FOR
NOW, HAVE CLEARED TO MVFR BY MIDDAY, BUT POTENTIAL THAT IFR
COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER, AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
FOR THE NEXT ISSUANCE. ELSEWHERE, NO RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST
BUT THERE COULD BE SOME REDUCED VISIBILITY/CEILINGS AT PHF/ORF
LATE TONIGHT AND AT RIC RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE THU MORNING. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, WITH SW FLOW RESUMING WITH ONSET OF
DIURNAL HEATING THURSDAY MID TO LATE MORNING.
OUTLOOK: THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, MAINLY IMPACTING
SBY BUT LOW CHANCE FOR RIC AS WELL. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE E-NE ON THE LOWER EASTERN
SHORE FRI AFTN, WITH ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. IT
IS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH PROGRESS FARTHER SOUTH THE BOUNDARY MAKES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT IN GENERAL, THE CHANCES ARE LOWER AT THE
REMAINING TERMINALS. SATURDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR, THEN RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE, POSSIBLY WITH A FEW TSTMS SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 150 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MARINE FOG LIKELY REDEVELOPS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT.ADDITIONAL BOUTS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEK.
- A SUB-SCA WIND AND SEA STATE IS FORECAST INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON,WITH THE NEXT SCA POTENTIAL BEING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY.
THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY LIGHT (~5 TO 10 KT) S TO SW WINDS
CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE
MD/DE BORDER. THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY DROPS SOUTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH WINDS BECOMING E OR NE ~5 KT IN ITS
WAKE. THE FRONT LIKELY DROPS THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BY THIS
EVENING, BUT LIKELY STAYS NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
AS THE FRONT DROP TO THE SOUTH, EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE
FOG TO DEVELOP. CAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY OFF OF OCEAN CITY, MD
ARE ALREADY STARTING TO INDICATE DEVELOPING MARINE FOG, THOUGH
IT HAS NOT BECOME DENSE YET. VISIBILITIES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT AND MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. WITH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK, BOUTS OF
MARINE FOG ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN A CONCERN.
THE BOUNDARY PUSHES N AGAIN TONIGHT AND SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE
AREA THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO END THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT FLOW AND SEAS BELOW 5 FT.
THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL LIKELY WAVER ACROSS THE WATERS AT TIMES,
TEMPORARILY SHIFTING WINDS TO THE E-NE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.
WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA, REGARDLESS OF THE WIND
DIRECTION. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD SCA-LEVEL WINDS AND
SEAS IS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650.
DISCUSSION...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...AJB/SW
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