424  
FXUS61 KAKQ 020714  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
214 AM EST FRI DEC 2 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY RESULTING IN  
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER. SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY AS  
ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HIGH  
PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER RETURN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
AS OF 945 PM EST THURSDAY...  
 
TEMPS AS OF 940 PM GENERALLY RANGED FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER  
30S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE  
REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH CIRRUS DISSIPATING  
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER MIDNIGHT, CLEAR SKIES RETURN AND  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, CALM WINDS, AND DEWPOINTS IN THE  
LOWER 20S INLAND, EXPECT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH LOWS  
FRI MORNING IN THE LOWER 20S INLAND AND UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S  
ALONG THE COAST. A FEW TYPICALLY COOLER LOCATIONS MAY DROP TO  
THE UPPER TEENS. MOSTLY SUNNY FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING  
OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME S.  
HIGHS FRI IN THE LOWER-MID 50S FOR MOST (UPPER 50S SE VA/NE NC).  
CIRRUS MOVE IN FROM THE W FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 150 PM EST THURSDAY...  
 
NO REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. SLIGHT  
MODERATION IS EXPECTED DURING FRI AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE  
COAST AND A LIGHT S FLOW DEVELOPS. HIGHS FRI MAINLY IN THE L50S  
N AND NW TO THE M-U50S ELSW. LOW PRES IS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL  
TO OUR NW FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FA DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE DAY ON  
SAT. MILDER FRI NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL S FLOW AND CLOUD COVER  
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. LOWS FRI NIGHT RANGING FROM  
THE U30S NW TO M40S IN COASTAL SE VA/NE NC. CANNOT RULE OUT A  
FEW SHRAS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AS EARLY AS 4 AM SAT. SHRAS  
CHANCES RAMP UP FROM W-E DURING THE DAY SAT AND WILL HAVE  
HIGHEST POPS (50-65%) ACROSS THE NW TWO-THIRDS OF THE FA DURING  
THE MORNING...SHIFTING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. IT WILL DRY OUT  
QUICKLY FOLLOWING THE FROPA AS HI PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE FA BY  
SAT EVENING/NIGHT. QPF IS NO HIGHER THAN 0.1-0.25" SAT GIVEN  
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. HIGHS SAT MAINLY IN THE 60S.  
LOWS SAT NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 30S-AROUND 40F.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 200 AM EST FRIDAY...  
 
EXPECTING A FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR NEXT WEEK AS  
MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ACROSS THE  
REGION. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE WEEK OFF ON  
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.  
AND MID-ATLANTIC, BRINGING DRY AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. THE  
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BY TUESDAY AS A  
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A ZONAL  
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME, ALLOWING FOR THE  
FRONT TO STALL OR SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTH MIDWEEK. THERE WILL BE  
A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE FRONT  
STALLED NEAR THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THESE DAYS WILL BE IN  
THE 50S TO AROUND 60F AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 40S/50S.  
 
MODELS START TO DIFFER STARTING ON THURSDAY. THE GFS SHOWS A  
STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER EASTERN ONTARIO AND  
QUEBEC THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THAT WOULD PUSH THE FRONT SOUTH OF  
THE AREA, BRINGING COLDER AIR IN. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE FRONT  
NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER FLORIDA,  
BRINGING WARM AND MOIST AIR NORTH. THE ECMWF EVENTUALLY BRINGS  
THE FRONT SOUTH BY LATE FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE COLDER OF THE TWO  
MODELS WITH A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC.  
CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS. HOWEVER,  
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE EITHER WARMER OR COLDER THAN  
CURRENTLY FORECASTED.  
 
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS DEVELOP A LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK, AND TRACK IT EAST TOWARDS THE  
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS. WITH THE COLDER GFS SOLUTION, IT BRINGS  
THE FIRST CHANCE OF SNOW FOR FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WARMER  
AND KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS, BRINGING  
ONLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 100 AM EST FRIDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. SKC SKIES  
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR MOST TERMINALS WITH HIGH  
CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. WINDS ARE LIGHT/CALM TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
OVERHEAD, BECOMING S 5-10 KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY.  
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS NORTH FRIDAY  
NIGHT. REMAINING VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY WITH CEILING BETWEEN  
10,000 FT AND 20,000 FT.  
 
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SAT AS ANOTHER COLD  
FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FA. PERIODS OF SUB- VFR CONDITIONS ARE  
POSSIBLE FROM LATE SAT MORNING INTO SAT AFTERNOON. VFR  
CONDITIONS RETURN SUN INTO MON AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE  
FA.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 1015 PM EST THURSDAY...  
 
NW WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 5-10KT OR LESS FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND  
SEAS HAVE NOW DROPPED OFF TO ~4 FT FOR THE NC COASTAL WATERS SO  
HAVE ALLOWED THE REMAINING SCA TO EXPIRE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT, THEN MOVE OFF THE  
COAST BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT, THEN  
E-NE BY FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTH BY  
FRIDAY AFTN WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE. ANOTHER COLD  
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AND MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. IT'S  
LIKELY THAT WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THEY WERE WITH THIS  
RECENT FRONT, BUT SCAS ARE LIKELY FOR THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.  
WINDS WILL BE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY. THE MOST LIKELY  
TIME FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE COAST WILL BE SATURDAY  
EVENING OR SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NW AFTER THE  
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...ERI  
NEAR TERM...RMM  
SHORT TERM...ALB/ERI  
LONG TERM...CP  
AVIATION...CP/RMM  
MARINE...JDM/LKB  
 
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