510
FXUS61 KAKQ 251727
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
127 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN GUSTY WINDS AND LINGERING DRIZZLE ALONG
THE COAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AS THE NOR'EASTER TRACKS CLOSER
TO THE LOCAL AREA.
STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN OFFSHORE
WATERS, WITH GALE WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE NEAR SHORE
COASTAL WATERS UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY
AS THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO TRACK OFFSHORE.
2) WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING
(INUNDATION OF 2-3 FEET AGL IN VULNERABLE AREAS) WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AT MOST SPOTS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
IN THE MIDDLE BAY POTENTIALLY SEEING MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
THROUGH SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN CHANCES AND GUSTY WINDS LOOK TO LINGER ALONG THE COAST TODAY
AS THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO TRACK OFFSHORE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE NOR'EASTER CONTINUING TO DEEPEN
OFFSHORE, NOW WITH A ~1004 MB SURFACE LOW. STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE ~1032 MB REMAINS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA. COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY IN
RESULT OF THESE TWO MAJOR SYSTEMS. ADDITIONALLY, POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS CONDITIONS LIKE DANGEROUS SURF, BEACH EROSION, AND
MODERATE TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
NEAR THE COAST.
THE NOR'EASTER WILL SLIDE FURTHER NORTH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
TRYING TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUD COVER
TO CLEAR SOME IN THE PIEDMONT WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MEANWHILE AT
THE COAST, THICK CLOUD COVER AND INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT LOW. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 70F ACROSS THE AREA. BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 MPH (HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST), BUT SHY OF WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
THE 00Z GLOBAL MODELS CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THE NOR'EASTER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF TAKING THE CENTER OF THE LOW INTO NEW JERSEY ON SUNDAY BEFORE
BRINGING IT BACK OFFSHORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS BRINGS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN WINDY CONDITIONS AND LINGERING DRIZZLE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NW WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH
(HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE A LARGE RANGE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG THE COAST TO WARMER
TEMPS IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INLAND NE NC REACHING THE MID 70S.
MOST INLAND LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S THOUGH. A
SIMILAR GRADIENT WILL BE EVIDENT ON SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
GIVING US A BREAK WITH DRY WEATHER AND SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABLE TO WARM MORE EACH DAY WITH THE RIDGING OVERHEAD. ON MONDAY,
EXPECT LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE NORTH AND UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
ACROSS THE SOUTH. BY MID-WEEK, WE MAY BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE
AGAIN (MID 80S) AS SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING
(INUNDATION OF 2-3 FEET AGL IN VULNERABLE AREAS) WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT AT MOST SPOTS, WITH SOME LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY
IN THE MIDDLE BAY POTENTIALLY SEEING MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
THROUGH SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST, WINDS HAVE BACKED SLIGHTLY
TODAY OVER THE REGION, NOW CLOSER TO NORTH-NORTHEAST INSTEAD OF NE.
IN ADDITION, THE SPEEDS HAVE ALSO DECREASED SLIGHTLY AT 20-30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. HOWEVER, THIS HAS DONE LITTLE TO CHANGE THE
COASTAL FLOOD SITUATION WITH MOST SITES CURRENTLY SEEING ANOMALIES
OF 2.5-3.5 FT ABOVE NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE TODAY. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY, EXPECT SIMILAR ANOMALIES TONIGHT AND
EVEN INTO FRIDAY. THESE ANOMALIES COMBINED WITH HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES THROUGH TOMORROW WILL LIKELY KEEP SIMILAR FLOODING AS HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCED FOR THE LAST FEW HIGH TIDE CYCLES. AS SUCH, HAVE OPTED
TO EXTEND THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.
OVERALL, STORM SURGE GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED HIGHER WITH THE 12Z RUNS
INSIDE THE BAY SATURDAY AND EVEN SUNDAY. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE
MODELS DEPICTING THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY BEING
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. WHILE THIS
WILL LEAD TO A MORE N-NW FLOW INSIDE THE BAY LEADING TO MORE EBBING
AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY, IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE BAY COULD SEE INCREASED WATER LEVELS WITH A
BETTER ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS. AS SUCH, HAVE OPTED TO
INCREASE THE TIDES SLIGHTLY INTO SATURDAY FOR THE MIDDLE BAY AND
EASTERN SIDE OF THE BAY. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIDE
FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND, SO WE WILL NOT EXTEND THE WARNINGS INTO
THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT SOME WARNINGS
WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 125 PM EDT FRIDAY...
A NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. CLOUDS HAVE MANAGED
TO CLEAR OUT INLAND (AT RIC) BUT BKN-OVC SKIES PERSIST RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST. CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY IMPROVING, BUT STILL
SEEING SPOTTY MVFR CIGS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. CIGS SHOULD
LIFT TO VFR AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CONDITIONS AT SBY, THOUGH, WILL LIKELY
DETERIORATE AS THE NOR'EASTER SLIDES NORTH AND PIVOTS TOWARD THE
COAST. MOST GUIDANCE KEEPS SBY AT MVFR BUT SOME OF THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE DROPS CIGS TO IFR TOMORROW MORNING. GUSTY N
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: INTERMITTENT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FROM LOW CIGS MAY IMPACT
COASTAL TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY SBY, INTO THE WEEKEND.
GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
SATURDAY. FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 325 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER WELL OFFSHORE WILL LIFT NORTH OFFSHORE
OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOWARD LONG ISLAND TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
INCREASING WINDS HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A STORM
WARNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND.
GALE WARNINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING/EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH A
GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
AND OVER THE CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE BAY, AND AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE
OCEAN. PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE 25-35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-45
KT OUT OF THE NNE. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
WILL RAMP BACK UP OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
- DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
10-16+ FT SEAS, AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN WATERS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER SE QB, WITH A ~1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTERED WELL E OF THE
VA CAPES. STRONG NNE FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 25-30 KT AND GOES DMW/SCATTEROMETER
DATA EACH SHOWING GUSTS TO 35-40 KT OFFSHORE. SEAS CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM 10-15 FT NEARSHORE TO 12-16+ FT IMMEDIATELY OFFSHORE.
MOST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING, KEEPING THE DEEPENING LOW WELL OFFSHORE AS IT TRACKS
TOWARD LONG ISLAND. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
BRIEFLY ACROSS THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES LATE THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH GALE-FORCE GUSTS REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. OFFSHORE, GALE-FORCE GUSTS CONTINUE FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
THE NEW 00Z/25 GUIDANCE AND MEMBER ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF RETROGRADING THE LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS CLOSER COASTAL TRACK ENTAILS WINDS RAMPING BACK UP
TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING, YIELDING ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SOLID GALES FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND GALE-FORCE GUSTS OVER
THE BAY THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. OFFSHORE,
THIS WILL BRING STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 50-60 KT FOR THE
OFFSHORE WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. LOCAL WIND
PROBABILITIES REFLECT A 20-40% CHANCE OF 34+ KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
BAY THIS AFTERNOON, RAMPING UP TO 50-60% TONIGHT.
EVEN WITH WINDS BRIEFLY WEAKENING A BIT WITH THE SLACKENING
GRADIENT THIS AFTERNOON, GIVEN THAT WINDS GUST TO GALE FORCE
THIS AFTERNOON AND LIKELY RAMP RIGHT BACK UP AGAIN TONIGHT,
HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN AND EXTEND GALE WARNINGS INTO TONIGHT
OVER THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND THROUGH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING FOR THE BAY. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, GALE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS
AND THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NORTHERN WATERS AND OFFSHORE
WATERS SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT
THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND.
THE WEAKENING LOW MEANDERS TOWARD THE NJ COAST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN EXITS SLOWLY TO THE NNE MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. WIND DIRECTION GRADUALLY SHIFT NNW TONIGHT/SATURDAY,
WITH WINDS FINALLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIKELY FALLING
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ON MONDAY.
COASTAL HAZARDS
FINALLY, THE LONG-DURATION NNE WINDS CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
DANGEROUSLY HIGH SEAS, CURRENTLY IN THE 10-15 FT RANGE. SEAS
INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20 FT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT, MAINTAINING
COASTAL HAZARDS. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK, WITH A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK PERSISTING INTO
THE WEEKEND DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS EVEN AS WINDS BECOME NNW.
LOCALIZED BEACH AND DUNE EROSION REMAIN POSSIBLE. HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
085-086-521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ081>084-
089-090-518-520-523-524-528.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ097-098-
525-529>531.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ639.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ654-656-
658-686-688.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ680-682-684.
DISCUSSION...AC/KMC
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...AJZ/MAM
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