647
FXUS61 KAKQ 232319
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
719 PM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
2) ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NUISANCE
TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...CONTINUED DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS BROAD 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
NORTHERN NY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ALOFT, THE FLOW IS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED BETWEEN STRONG RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS AND LOW
HEIGHTS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. A WEAKENING CLOSED UPPER LOW IS
NOTED OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. A SUBTLE SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SPREADS EASTWARD. LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME ONSHORE/NE, ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO INCREASE BELOW A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE BLOSSOMED OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE RELATIVE THICKEST CLOUDS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE HIGH CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A DEVELOPING SFC TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SE US COAST. THE COMPRESSED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TEND TO KEEP THE AIRMASS MIXED WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST
THE SE 1/2 OF THE CWA TONIGHT BUT NORTHERN AND NW SECTIONS SHOULD
SEE LOWS BACK INTO THE 30S, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO PATCHY FROST BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY. HELD OFF ON ANY FROST ADVISORIES AFTER
COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES, MAINLY DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THE TYPICALLY COOLER
SHELTERED SPOTS IN THE PIEDMONT WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE
SOME PATCHY FROST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. NOT MUCH
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR ZERO
CHANCE FOR RAINFALL RETURNING TO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME, BOTH
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AM AND SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AM HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FROST OVER MUCH OF THE INTERIOR,
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL IN THE PIEDMONT. HAVE CONTINUED TO
UNDERCUT NBM AND SOME OF THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE VALUES BY
SEVERAL DEGREES EXCEPT AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ELEVATED TIDAL ANOMALIES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING FORECAST.
THE REMAINS OF JOSEPHINE HAVE PUSHED WELL AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA,
BUT WITH SWELL STILL PROPAGATING TOWARD THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH, TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN 1.5-2FT ABOVE NORMAL.
THESE ANOMALIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY AND/OR SLOWLY FALL TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THEREFORE, PRIMARILY NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE
SATURDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTN HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS,
PRIMARILY FOR THE TIDAL RAPPAHANNOCK, SOUTHERN SHORE OF THE TIDAL
POTOMAC, THE UPPER YORK, AND THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHES. BAY.
NUISANCE FLOODING MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS SWELL
CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE COAST WITH PERSISTENT (BUT WEAKER)
ONSHORE FLOW, AS WELL AS A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH
TIDES AS WE APPROACH FULL MOON.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 720 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 00Z/24 TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE NE. SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS ~5,000 FT REMAIN ACROSS THE
AREAS, WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR MOST OF THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NE TONIGHT ~10 KT
AT ORF/ECG AND ~5 KT AT RIC/SBY/PHF. CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN AGAIN
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
OUTLOOK: VFR PREVAILS SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST WINDS ARE OUT
OF THE E-NE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH A TYPICAL DIURNAL MAX/MIN
EXPECTED.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NORTH WINDS BECOME NE AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY BY THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM QUEBEC TO NEW YORK TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS, WITH ELEVATED SEAS
LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS.
1030MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN QB THIS AFTN. THE
WIND IS GENERALLY NE 15-20KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT FOR THE OCEAN,
LOWER CHES. BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND CURRITUCK SOUND; AND 10-15KT WITH
GUSTS TO 20KT FOR THE MIDDLE CHES. BAY AND UPPER TIDAL RIVERS. SEAS
RANGE FROM 5-6FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS TO 6-8FT IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS, WITH 2-3FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY (LOCALLY HIGHER AT THE
MOUTH). HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS SSE INTO NY AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND BUILDS TO NEARLY 1035MB. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NE FLOW THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 1AM FOR THE MIDDLE
CHES. BAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE LOWER
CHES. BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE NC OUTER BANKS. THEREFORE, AN ENE WIND WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED SEAS. SCAS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS, THROUGH SUNDAY FOR THE MOUTH OF THE CHES. BAY, AND
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR NOW (AND POTENTIALLY LONGER) FOR THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ075-077.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ076-078-
085-086-521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ083-084-
099-100-518-520-523.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ089-090-
524-528.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-633-
639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...KMC/RHR
MARINE...AJZ/MRD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page