882  
FXUS61 KAKQ 180043  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
843 PM EDT SAT APR 17 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN  
SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY  
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. WEAK  
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,  
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
AS OF 830 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE  
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING WITH A NEARLY FLAT/ZONAL FLOW  
ALOFT. A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM  
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES  
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH  
SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS NEAR THE COAST ON THE EASTERN SHORE WITH  
A LIGHT SE FLOW. SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS  
THE REGION, GENERALLY AMOUNTING TO NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW  
SPRINKLES. HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR  
PERHAPS SEEING A FEW SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO A FEW  
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS WILL  
BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN VA N OF I-64. WILL HAVE POPS TO  
30-40% IN THIS AREA THROUGH 06Z, AND GENERALLY ONLY 20% OR LESS  
ELSEWHERE WHERE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE A TRACE OR LESS.  
 
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM WNW TO  
ESE AFTER 06Z-09Z. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP OFF SEVERAL DEGREES  
TOWARDS SUNRISE (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT). FORECAST LOWS  
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT, WITH MAINLY  
MID 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
FIRST SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH  
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM BRINGING A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF  
CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE CLOUD  
THICKENING/LOWERING ALL OVER AGAIN SUN AFTN AND NIGHT, AS NEXT  
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY PUSHES ACROSS THE  
AREA LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN  
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES RIGHT NOW  
APPEAR TO BE AFTER SUNSET SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE  
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A THIRD PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ON  
MONDAY OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC, AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO  
DEVELOP A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. HOWEVER, MAJORITY  
OF CAMS AND THE EPS ARE QUITE A BIT LOWER WITH QPF. AND HAVE  
ACCORDINGLY MAINTAINED POPS NO HIGHER THAN 40% IN THE FORECAST  
FOR THE TIME BEING. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION, AHEAD OF  
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK.  
 
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE  
AREA. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT MILDER ON  
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID  
70S. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50 DEGREES  
ALONG THE COAST.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY ...  
 
POTENT MID-UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES  
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE  
SFC LOW AND BEST LIFT/DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH, STILL ENOUGH IN THE  
WAY OF INSTABILITY TO WARRANT T-STORM MENTION ALONG AND EAST OF  
95 LATE WED AFTN AND EVENING. PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE WILL BRING A COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT, AFTER HIGHS  
WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. BL SHOULD REMAIN WELL-MIXED,  
BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES FOR INLAND  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES  
POTENTIALLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND. THURSDAY  
WILL BE DRY, BUT COOL AND BREEZY. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE GENERALLY  
IN THE LOWER 60S AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT  
WITH POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND  
SKY CLEARING OUT. REMAINING DRY FRIDAY WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING  
OFFSHORE. RESULTANT RETURN FLOW ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE  
SLIGHTLY SOME, BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 60S.  
 
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM  
SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MID SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. KEPT  
POPS LOW (20-30%) AT THIS TIME RANGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING DESPITE  
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH THE  
REGION. CIGS ARE MAINLY RANGING BETWEEN 5-10K FT AND ARE NOT  
EXPECTED TO LOWER MUCH MORE THAN THIS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE  
FAIRLY LIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT RIC/SBY WHERE THE CHANCE FOR  
RAIN IS LIGHTLY HIGHER BUT STILL FAIRLY MINIMAL. SKY GRADUALLY  
CLEARS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06-12Z SUN MORNING. VFR  
CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL  
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KT.  
 
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH  
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM BRINGING CHANCES FOR ISO-WIDELY SCT SHOWERS  
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN MAINLY DRY FROM MON  
AFTN THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER WED AND WED  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...  
 
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA TODAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW HAS  
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS 5-10 KTS. WAVES IN THE BAY  
AROUND A FOOT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS/DISTURBANCES WILL  
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH TONIGHT, ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A SHORTWAVE  
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE WIND  
DIRECTIONS OVER THE AREA WATERS, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY  
REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS. WAVES  
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAIN AROUND A FOOT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. STRONG  
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH SCA  
WINDS/SEAS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...LKB  
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM  
SHORT TERM...AJB/MAM  
LONG TERM...AJB/MAM  
AVIATION...LKB/MAM  
MARINE...CMF  
 
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