582
FXUS61 KAKQ 022337
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
737 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
2) SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 235 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH COOLER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL BRING ABOUT A STARK CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER PATTERN COMPARED TO THE ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT WE ARE SEEING
TODAY. THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY PASS THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, THEN IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS TOMORROW
AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE THE WEAKER OF THE TWO FRONTS, LIKELY THANKS
TO A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS INITIAL PUSH HAS A RATHER
FLAT TROUGH ALOFT WITH IT, WHICH WILL ONLY BE ENOUGH TO TAKE
THE MID- ATLANTIC FROM A RIDGE TO NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT THE FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING CHANCES AFTER
2AM. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MID-DAY TOMORROW BEFORE EVENTUALLY
EXPANDING SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE DAY. QPF FOR THIS FIRST BATCH
OF SHOWERS IS RELATIVELY LOW WITH MOST LIKELY SEEING LESS THAN
0.5". SINCE THE FA SHOULD BE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND CLOUDY,
RAINY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, TEMPS WILL BE
MUCH COOLER THAN TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID
60S ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64 AND AROUND 70 TO THE MID 70S TO THE
SOUTH.
A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING UP BETWEEN THE FRONTS WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL RAIN TO THE AREA LATE SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
INITIAL BATCH OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP LIKELY MOVES IN FROM THE SW AFTER
MIDNIGHT SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WITH CATEGORICAL (80-
90%) POPS SPREADING E/NE THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. PRECIP WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NW TO SE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT. THE TREND OF
HIGHER RAIN TOTALS FOR THIS WEEKEND LARGELY BEING CONFINED TO THE
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA HAS HELD WITH THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE. NBM PROBS FOR >1" OF RAIN ARE 75-90% FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SE OF US- 360. PROBS FOR MORE THAN 2" ARE SITTING AT 50-60% FOR
ROUGHLY THE SAME AREA. AREAS NW OF US-360 COULD STILL SEE AN
INCH OR MORE, BUT PROBS ARE MORE LIKE 30-50%. THE QPF LINES UP
PRETTY WELL WITH THIS AT 1-1.5" SE OF US-360 AND 0.5-1"
NORTHEAST OF IT. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS QUITE LOW
DUE TO COOL SFC TEMPS, BUT A BRIEF INCREASE IN CAPE ACROSS THE
FAR SE SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD ALLOW FOR AN EMBEDDED STORM OR
TWO. SPEAKING OF TEMPS: AGAIN CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE NBM
GUIDANCE, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID- UPPER 60S NW TO LOWER
70S SE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONG AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE (1020-1025MB) BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE SECOND FRONT WHILE SUBTLE TROUGHING SETS UP ALOFT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL FOR THE BULK OF THE WEEK, LEADING TO A NICE FALL
WEEK. HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S THROUGH THE WEEK,
WHICH IS AROUND THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CHILLY OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS WELL, ESPECIALLY FOR THE PIEDMONT WHERE
TEMPS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED ALL WEEK. STATISTICAL GUIDANCE EVEN
SUGGESTS UPPER 30S IN THE PIEDMONT FOR THE WED MORNING LOW.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 735 PM EDT FRIDAY...
CLOUDS BUILD IN FROM NW TO SE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
THE AREA. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT RIC AROUND 7-8Z, SBY/PHF AROUND
9-10Z, ORF AROUND 10-11Z, AND ECG AROUND 11-12Z. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS IFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN VA AND PORTIONS OF NE NC
EARLY SAT MORNING (11-13Z). WHILE CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS
TIME TO ADD IFR CIGS (FOR THIS TIMEFRAME) TO THE TAFS, ORF AND
ECG WILL NEED TO MONITOR CONDITIONS IN CASE IFR DOES DEVELOP.
ONCE CIGS DROP TO MVFR, THEY SHOULD REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY, EVENTUALLY DROPPING TO IFR SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT
EVENING. THE ONLY TERMINAL WHICH MAY NOT REACH IFR CIGS IS
SBY, HOWEVER, IFR CIGS REMAIN POSSIBLE EVEN THERE. ADDITIONALLY,
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT INTO SAT WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES AT RIC/SBY.
HOWEVER, IT WILL LIKELY NOT RAIN THE ENTIRE DAY, LEADING TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN EXACT TIMING. RAIN CHANCES SPREAD SE BY SAT NIGHT
TO INCLUDE ALL AREA TERMINALS. VIS DROPS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE RAIN AND/OR MIST/FOG THAT DEVELOPS SAT. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME N 8-12 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY DRY OUT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY DURING THIS TIME AS
WELL.
MARINE
AS OF 235 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
LOWER JAMES RIVER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
- A STRONGER FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND LIKELY
BRINGS ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL
WATERS.
THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE (~1024 MB) IS CENTERED WELL OFF THE
SOUTHEAST US COAST. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OFF TO THE NW
(UPSTATE NY DOWN INTO THE OH VALLEY). WINDS ARE PRIMARILY OUT OF THE
SSW, AVERAGING ~10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE RUNNING 2 TO 3 FEET
NEARSHORE AND 3 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE, WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ARE
RUNNING AROUND 2 FEET. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH AND
DROP S-SE INTO THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. A SHALLOW CAA SURGE IS STILL ANTICIPATED IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BECOME N TO NNE AND RAPIDLY INCREASE TO 15 TO
20 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY MORNING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME NE. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. A FEW 25+ KNOT GUSTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS (ESPECIALLY NORTH), BUT DUE TO THE LIMITED DURATION ~3-4
HOURS MAINLY BETWEEN 09-12Z SATURDAY, OPTED AGAINST ANY SCAS AT THIS
TIME. WITH THE INCREASING WINDS, SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FEET
NEARSHORE AND 4 TO 5 FEET OFFSHORE. SEAS MAY TRY TO APPROACH 5 FEET
OUT 20 NM ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATER LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNING. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE COAST LATER MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER
CAA SURGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SCAS ARE LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
MARINE AREA WITH A NNE WIND OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO NEAR 30
KNOTS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FEET N TO 5 TO 7 FEET S.
A MODERATE RIP RISK IS EXPECTED AT ALL AREA BEACHES ON SATURDAY. A
MODERATE RIP RISK CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES WITH A LOW RISK
FOR THE SOUTHERN BEACHES ON SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY (10/2):
- RIC: 98 (2019)
- ORF: 93 (2019)
- SBY: 96 (2019)
- ECG: 93 (1986)
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-
631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ639.
DISCUSSION...AC/SW
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...AJB
CLIMATE...
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