358
FXUS61 KAKQ 220533
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
133 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SOUTH THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT IS NOW JUST SOUTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER, AND HAVE
REMOVED ANY THUNDER MENTION FOR THE NE PORTIONS OF THE FA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT JUST S OF THE VA-NC BORDER, WITH
ANY LIMITED SEVERE THREAT NOW CONFINED TO NE NC. SHOWERS PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT.
2) AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE THROUGH THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. GENERALLY COOLER TO START, WITH PERIODS OF
RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 810 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT JUST S OF THE VA-NC BORDER, WITH
ANY LIMITED SEVERE THREAT NOW CONFINED TO NE NC. SHOWERS PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A THE COLD FRONT NOW JUST
SOUTH OF THE VA-NC BORDER, WITH WINDS FROM THE N-NE IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT ACROSS ALL OF VA AND MD ZONES. WHILE SOME ELEVATED
THUNDER IS STILL BEING OBSERVED IN THE PIEDMONT AS FAR NORTH AS
THE I-64 CORRIDOR, ANY THREAT FOR STRONG TO LOW-END SVR TSTMS
WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY IN NE NC FOR THE NEXT
FEW HRS- AND EVEN THIS WILL BE LIMITED/ISOLATED AT BEST. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2" OVER THE PAST 3-6
HRS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA, BUT MUCH OF THE REGION HAS
RECEIVED 0.10" OR LESS. SOME ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (EVEN NORTH OF THE FRONT), BUT FLASH FLOODING
IS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
ARE NOW MAINLY IN THE 60S, EXCEPT SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE
READINGS ARE STILL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 50S NW TO THE LOW-MID 60S SE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...AN INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES SHAPE
THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. GENERALLY COOLER TO START,
WITH PERIODS OF RAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED BY
A LOWER- CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE AND RAIN FORECAST FOR LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD
OF CAD DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND LINGERING UNTIL SUNDAY. FORECAST
HIGHS HAVE TRENDED COOLER FOR FRI DUE TO CAD AND PERIODS OF
MAINLY STRATIFORM LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HIGHS ARE NOW EXPECTED
TO RANGE FROM AROUND 60F NORTH TO THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS NE NC
WITH MOST LOCATIONS ONLY IN THE 60S FOR HIGHS. HAVE MAINTAINED
NO MENTION OF THUNDER ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE WEDGE AND LACK ON
INSTABILITY PRESENT. WILL NOTE THAT RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE
BEEN FOR LESS RAIN ON FRI, PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF I-64 FRI
AFTERNOON.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE
DURABILITY OF THE COOL AIR/CAD WEDGE SETUP HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. NAMELY, BECAUSE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGING, THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A GROWING SIGNAL THAT THE WARM FRONT REMAINS
PINNED TO OUR SOUTH A BIT LONGER, THEREFORE HOLDING THE WEDGE
AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS
INJECTS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY INTO TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AS
STABLE, LOW-LEVEL NE MARINE FLOW PERSISTS. THE CURRENT FORECAST
KEEPS THE WARMER TEMPERATURES (LOWER 80S) CONFINED TO EXTREME
SE VA/NE NC WITH A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM SE TO NW, BUT
THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE IF THE FRONT DOES NOT LIFT AS QUICKLY
AS CURRENTLY FORECAST. MEANWHILE, PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT MAY
NOT GET OUT OF THE LOWER 60S ON SAT.
EVENTUALLY, THE WARM FRONT DOES LIFT BACK NORTH OVER THE AREA TO
FULLY ERODE THE CAD AIRMASS LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. STAGNANT FLOW
WILL THEN LIKELY RESULT IN THAT WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETTING
HUNG UP OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE IN THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONTINUED UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LINGERING THROUGHOUT THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST ARE QUITE POSSIBLE SUNDAY, THOUGH QUICK WARMING IS
LIKELY HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS
EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
THE UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR RAIN CHANCES VIRTUALLY EVERY
DAY TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE WEEKEND
CERTAINLY DOESN'T LOOK TO BE A WASHOUT, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER
THAN THEY'VE BEEN OF LATE EACH DAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE
LATEST 12Z GEFS AVERAGES 1.0"-1.5" NORTHEAST OF RICHMOND WITH
1.5-2.0" SOUTH AND WEST OF RICHMOND THROUGH MONDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE EPS AVERAGES 2.0"-2.5" ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA,
WHICH IS ON THE HIGHER END OF GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS, ANY RAIN
WILL BE BENEFICIAL WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 133 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
THERE IS A MIXED BAG OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WITH
GENERALLY MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN LINGERING THIS MORNING. THIS LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING AND POTENTIALLY FOR THE ENTIRE
TAF PERIOD AT RIC AND SBY. THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS (ESPECIALLY ECG)
WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN, BUT TIMING THIS BREAK IS A
LITTLE TRICKY, SO WILL TRY AND NARROW DOWN A TIMEFRAME WITH THE NEXT
TAF UPDATE. LOW CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE DESPITE ANY BREAKS IN THE
RAIN. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, GUSTING TO 15-20 KTS
(20-25 KTS AT SBY) THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: SUB-VFR CIGS (POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD IFR) ARE LIKELY
TO PERSIST (OR REDEVELOP IF THEY IMPROVE) FRI NIGHT, AND THEN
LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE AREA AS A
COOL, WEDGE AIRMASS DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. SUB-VFR MAY LINGER
THROUGH SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY NW. CONDITIONS ALSO REMAIN UNSETTLED
WITH NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 145 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER NOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. NE WINDS
WILL AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT, THOUGH GUSTS TO 30
KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
- WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE VARIABLE THIS
WEEKEND, BUT 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS INTO LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY EVENING.
LATEST OBS AND BUOY REPORTS REFLECT NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT SE WINDS OFF THE NORTHERN
OBX WHERE THE WELL ADVERTISED COLD FRONT HAS YET TO REACH THAT FAR
SOUTH. SEAS ARE 3 FT, WITH WAVES ON THE EASTERN VA RIVERS, CURRITUCK
SOUND, AND CHESAPEAKE BAY AT 1-2 FT.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHER MARINE AREA
THROUGH THIS EVENING, BEFORE STALLING JUST TO OUR SOUTH ON FRIDAY
AND THEN SLOWLY LIFTING BACK NORTH OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
PERIOD OF ELEVATED NE WINDS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING, AVERAGING 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT NORTH OF THE
VA-NC BORDER, WITH WINDS A FEW KNOTS HIGHER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
N OF CAPE CHARLES (WHERE GUSTS TO 25-30 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES).
WINDS MAY STRUGGLE TO INCREASE AS MUCH IN THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS
(ESPECIALLY S OF VA BEACH) DUE TO THE SLUGGISH SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT.
SEAS BUILD TO 5-7 FT (HIGHEST N) BY TONIGHT WITH WAVES OF 3-4 FT ON
THE CHES BAY. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHES BAY AND THE LOWER
JAMES RIVER NOW THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT IS
STILL FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. IF THE FRONTAL TIMING CONTINUES TO LAG
FARTHER INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY, THE NORTHERN WATERS COULD STILL
SEE SCA WINDS LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN
LIGHTER (~10 KT), MORE VARIABLE WINDS IS HIGH FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, 5 TO 7 FOOT
SEAS COULD LINGER NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING IN PERSISTENT E-NE SWELL, EVEN AFTER WINDS DECREASE.
INCREASING SEAS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WASHING
MACHINE EFFECT AT ALL BEACHES TO END THE WORK AND LASTING THROUGH
MUCH (IF NOT ALL) OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND DUE TO THE LINGERING
EASTERLY, SHORT-PERIOD SWELL. HAZARDOUS SURF ZONE CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656.
DISCUSSION...LKB/RMM
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...JDM
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