010
FXUS61 KAKQ 091052
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
652 AM EDT FRI MAY 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 652 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
- SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SE VA AND NE NC.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY SUBSIDED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MULTIPLE AREAS SAW HEAVY
RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 60S W AND UPPER 60S E, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM SW VA TO NORTHERN VA
THIS MORNING. ALOFT, A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE FRONT
WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF TODAY, WITH REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT. THE
CURRENT LULL IN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY THEN CONVECTION WILL PICK BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN BEING IN SE VA AND NE NC AS THE FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THIS AREA. SPC HAS SOUTH-CENTRAL VA THROUGH SE
VA/NE NC IN A MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR STORMS, WITH THE MAIN
THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL FEATURE ADEQUATE INSTABILITY, DECENT SHEAR
VALUES, MODEST LAPSE RATES, AND AMPLE MOISTURE. IN ADDITION, THE
UPPER LOW WILL BRING GOOD SUPPORT ALOFT, WHICH WILL HELP
THUNDERSTORMS SUSTAIN THEMSELVES AND COULD INCREASE THE HAIL
THREAT. WITH THE PREVIOUS CONVECTION HAVING MOVED THROUGH EARLY
THIS MORNING, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD HAVE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF
TIME TO RECHARGE. THE MAIN INHIBITOR OF CONVECTION WOULD BE A
FASTER MOVING FRONT, WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF RECOVERY
TIME AFTER THIS CONVECTION, AS WELL AS DECREASE THE TIME STORMS
HAVE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. CAM GUIDANCE GENERALLY HAS CONVECTIVE
INITIATION STARTING AROUND NOON TO 2 PM FOR THE WESTERN
COUNTIES, THEN HAVE STORMS STARTING TO FIRE UP IN THE SE
COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER AIR WILL START TO FILTER IN AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN ITS WAKE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE MID 40S W TO MID 50S E OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 423 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER, DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
BY SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL CLEAR OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING IN A VERY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALOFT, THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
INTO THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL
BE PARKED ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THE SURFACE FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECONDARY UPPER LOW WILL HELP PUMP IN DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT MOST OF THE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS
THIS MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE CLOSER TO OUR AREA, UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL START OFF REACHING THE
LOWER 70S DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S W TO THE UPPER 50S E ON SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SOME ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AND LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEGREES.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 423 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMUP BY MID
TO LATE WEEK.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK.
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL FINALLY REACH OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES TOWARDS OUR AREA. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL ACCOMPANY A LARGE SWATH OF
INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY, BRINGING
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH ELEVATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED, ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE STARTING TUESDAY. WPC
HAS PLACED OUR ENTIRE FORECAST IN A MARGINAL RISK TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. MEANWHILE, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE A FEW DEGREES STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S FORECAST.
AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 652 AM EDT FRIDAY...
THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SHOWERS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT
ROUND OF STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. INTERMITTENT LOW CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH ALL TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AT PHF,
ORF, AND ECG SO HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 AT THESE SITES TO HELP
BETTER NARROW DOWN THE TIMEFRAME THAT EACH TERMINAL COULD SEE
CONVECTION. MENTION OF SHOWERS WAS INCLUDED AT RIC AND SBY, FOR
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF ANY
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT INCREASE, A TEMPO MAY BE INCLUDED.
LOWERED CIGS AND VIS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN ANY PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND STORMS TAPER OFF.
OUTLOOK: AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT, CONDITIONS
IMPROVE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE REGION BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 355 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH N-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 KT.
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN SATURDAY EVENING AND LAST THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC COLD FRONT JUST TO THE NW OF THE
LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE TURNED NNE OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS IN THE WAKE OF CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING,
BUT EXPECT WINDS VEER BACK AROUND TO THE SSW ALL WATERS BY
SUNRISE. LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LIFTING ACROSS THE LOWER BAY
THIS MORNING PUSHES OFFSHORE BY MID-MORNING, AND WILL DRAG THE
FRONT TO THE WEST...A FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT FOR EARLY-MID
MAY...ACROSS THE WATERS DURING THE AFTN- EARLY EVENING. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE COINCIDENT
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH
THE MAIN FOCUS OVER THE LOWER BAY AND SE VA/NE NC COASTAL
WATERS. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY NECESSITATE SMWS, WITH BRIEF
GUSTS OF 50 KT POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. WINDS BECOME
N-NW FOLLOWING THE FROPA, WITH A DECENTLY STRONG CAA SURGE
EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT, AS 925MB TEMPS DROP TO 5-6C.
WINDS INCREASING TO ~20 KT ON THE BAY/OCEAN, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 25-30 KT. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR SUSTAINED 18 KT+ WINDS REMAIN
QUITE HIGH (80-100%) OVER THE BAY FOR A FEW HRS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AM. SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO 4-5 FT BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS WELL. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE BAY, OCEAN, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER STARTING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, CONTINUING THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE N-NW WINDS
DIMINISH TO ~10 KT BY LATE SATURDAY AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FT, WITH
WAVES SUBSIDING TO 1-2 FT SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AROUND MONDAY.
AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY MONDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME
ONSHORE. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL TIGHTEN
SOMEWHAT THROUGH MID- WEEK, AND WINDS OF ~15 KT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS ALL MARINE FORECAST ZONES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE WEEK.
SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF SCA CONDITIONS TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THIS AT THIS TIME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-
658.
SYNOPSIS...RMM/NB
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...NB
LONG TERM...NB
AVIATION...KMC/NB
MARINE...ERI/MAM
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