364
FXUS61 KAKQ 070946
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
546 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN ADDED ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH FOR TODAY. OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 335 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEAK SW FLOW REMAINS ALOFT FOR TODAY, WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR THE HUMIDITY AND HEAT TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. DEW POINTS ARE PROGGED
TO BE THE LOW 70S INLAND AND MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST. WITH THE
MIX OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND THE UPPER 90S
AND LOWER 100S BUT BELOW 105F. IN TERMS OF SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES,
A WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND HIGH
TERRAIN. WITH THE WEAK SHEAR THESE STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE AND
ONCE DETACHED FROM A BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO THRIVE. THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS QUITE MARGINAL FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS AGAIN
MENTIONED SHEAR REMAINS WEAK. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A MODEST AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH DCAPE VALUE'S APPROACHING NEAR 1000J/KG WHICH
WOULD GIVE A STORM THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
GUST. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
NORTH OF I-64 AND THE MD EASTERN SHORE. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE
WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR WITH THE DAILY CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AND HIGH TERRAIN AND
SEA BREEZE. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST WITH TEMPS RANGING IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S
AND HEAT INDICES BETWEEN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S BUT AGAIN
REMAINING SHY OF THE 105F HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ENSEMBLES HINT ON A MORE ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE STRONGEST FLOW REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA. WHILE AT
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THRIVE OFF THE COAST
CONTINUING TO USHER IN HEAT AND MOISTURE. DURING THE EARLY TO MID-
WEEK STRETCH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS PERSIST WITH THE BEST
CHANCE POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT TRIES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF THE DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY REACHING INTO THE LOWER 90S. WITH DEW POINTS STRUGGLING TO
MIX THROUGH THE DAY AS THE HIGH IS OFFSHORE THEY WILL REMAIN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 70S AGAIN ALLOWING HEAT INDICES TO BE IN THE LOW 100S.
WILL NOTE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME PLACES COULD REACH HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA TUES AND WED BUT CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS
LOW.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 546 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. SKIES ARE
REMAINING CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ONLY SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE, PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS MAINLY LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-64. WINDS WERE S/SSW 5-10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING THEN BECOMING
SW ~10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: THE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ONLY ISOLATED AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED EACH
DAY.
MARINE
AS OF 340 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING, AND
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE WIND IS PRIMARILY SW 10-15KT WITH 2-3FT SEAS, AND 1-2FT
WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER. THE WIND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO S/SSE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING
DUE TO SEABREEZE INFLUENCES AND INCREASE TO ~15KT IN THE CHES.
BAY AND 15-20KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS, BEFORE SHIFTING TO SW AND
RELAXING TO 10-15KT OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A SIMILAR
PATTERN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES SLIGHTLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
S/SW WIND DIMINISHING TO ~10KT OR LESS, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE OF A TRUE SEA- BREEZE WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO SE NEAR THE
COAST DURING THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SEAS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL PRIMARILY BE 2-3FT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS,
3-4 FT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS, AND 1FT TO OCCASIONALLY 2FT
WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HET
AVIATION...HET
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
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