556
FXUS61 KAKQ 281716
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1216 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE CONTINUED DEPICTION OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE AND
MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS WEEKEND BY ALL MAJOR MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
GIVES A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONFIDENCE FOR SEEING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
LOCALLY, AND POPS FRI NIGHT-SAT NIGHT HAVE BEEN RAISED 5-10%
FROM THE LAST FORECAST CYCLE FOR ALL BUT THE NW (WHERE THE PROBS
FOR MODERATE LEVEL SNOW IMPACTS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY). ALSO,
THE CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SAT
AM HAS INCREASED OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. WINDS WERE INCREASED
SLIGHTLY ALONG THE COAST FOR THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FOR
THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, THE PENINSULAS, AND THE EASTERN
SHORE. ADDITIONAL HEADLINES ARE LIKELY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND GIVEN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
LINGERING LOCALIZED IMPACTS FROM THE WINTER STORM THIS PAST
SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS WITH LITTLE TO NO MELTING OF
THE SNOW/ICE.
2) A WEAK CLIPPER AND ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS TO NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
ADDITIONAL COLD AIR TO THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK.
3) WHILE DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE WEEKEND SYSTEM,
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS VERY LIKELY TO DEVELOP OFF THE SE/MID
ATLANTIC COASTS, BRINGING STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COAST AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 330 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WEAK/DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS DROPPED SOUTH OF
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY N WINDS
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES RANGE THROUGH THE TEENS NORTH AND
ARE IN THE 20S SOUTH, WITH WIND CHILLS VALUES AS LOW AS THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH. AS TEMPERATURES FALL
ANOTHER 5-10 DEGREES THROUGH SUNRISE, EXPECT LOWS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS OVER THE NW, AND MAINLY IN THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM THIS
MORNING FOR THE THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES, THE PENINSULAS, AND
THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE LOCAL THRESHOLDS FOR WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE REACHED.
TODAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE WELL BELOW NORMAL,
RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 20S N TO THE MID 30S S (THE AREAS
GETTING ABOVE FREEZING ARE LOCATIONS THAT ALREADY HAVE MINIMAL,
IF ANY, LINGERING SNOW/ICE). HIGH CLOUDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY INCREASING AFTN CLOUDS FROM THE N AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SE FROM CANADA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
BE MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HAVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FROM 7 PM/00Z
THROUGH 1 AM/06Z IN THESE AREAS. AT THIS TIME, NO MENTIONABLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, THOUGH IF ANY SNOW SHOWER OVERPERFORMS
A LIGHT DUSTING IS POSSIBLE ON THE ALREADY VERY COLD GROUND. IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY PLUMMET INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, THOUGH AGAIN
THE NBM CONTINUES TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE (WITH THE NBM VERIFYING TOO LOW THE PAST 2
NIGHTS). STILL, ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
WITH WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOCALIZED
AREAS WHERE WINDS ARE HIGHEST LIKELY SEEING BELOW ZERO APPARENT
TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE ABOVE THE MID
TEENS TO MID 20S DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...THERE REMAINS A LOT OF MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
SPREAD REGARDING THE DETAILS OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, PARTICULARLY
WITH RESPECT TO QPF AND LOCATION. THE PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR TO
WHAT HAS BEEN ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES:
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A STRONG HIGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
PLAINS TOWARDS THE WESTERN GULF COAST SAT. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY
SAT MORNING, SHIFTING SE TO A POSITION ALONG THE SC/GA COAST SAT
NIGHT, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN AND WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT PART IN THE THE EXACT
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ENSEMBLES HAVE A FEW DIFFERENT SCENARIOS PAINTED AS TO
WHERE THIS LOW DEVELOPS, WHICH WILL HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
PRETTY MUCH EVERYTHING DEPICTS A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING OF THE
LOW ALONG OR OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WHICH
COULD PRESENT A PLETHORA OF ISSUES CONCERNING IMPACTS TO THE
REGION INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL,
HIGH WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING, AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS.
LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES GENERALLY HAVE THE GFS/GEFS AS THE
FARTHER INLAND/CLOSEST TO THE COAST WITH THE GEM/GEPS AND
ECMWF/EPS FARTHER SOUTH AND OFFSHORE. PROBS FOR 3" AND 6"+ PF
SNOWFALL REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE 12Z CYCLE FROM YESTERDAY,
WITH THE GFS/GEFS BEING MUCH HIGHER INLAND AND NW THAN THE OTHER
SOLUTIONS. THERE IS ONE CAVEAT TO THESE PROBABILITIES IS THAT
THEY ARE USING A 10:1 SLR, BUT WITH THE VERY COLD AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE (AND NO WARM NOSE ALOFT), THESE WILL LIKELY BE
MUCH HIGHER ESPECIALLY FATHER INLAND, PROBABLY FROM 15:1 TO
18:1. ANY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF THIS LOW WILL
ULTIMATELY DICTATE WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOW WILL BE OBSERVED. AS
OF NOW, OUR FORECAST HAS INCREASED POPS TO CHC/LIKELY OVERNIGHT
FRI INTO EARLY SATURDAY ALONG THE INITIAL INLAND SFC TROUGH
PROGGED OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS COULD BRING
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MAINLY SOUTHERN VA AND NE NC AS THE COASTAL
SYSTEM IS JUST STARTING TO ORGANIZE. STILL, THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL BE LATER SAT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE COASTAL SYSTEM
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AND MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE AREA.
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 70-90% ALONG THE COAST WITH LIKELY POPS
FROM MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA (KEPT POPS IN THE CHC
RANGE NW). IN CONTRAST FROM THIS PAST WEEKEND'S STORM, P-TYPES
WILL LIKELY BE PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD, LIKELY ALL TO
PREDOMINATELY SNOW UNLESS THE TRACK OF THE LOW DEVIATES FARTHER
WEST. IF THIS OCCURS, AREAS CLOSER TO COAST MAY SEE A RAIN/SNOW
MIX. AGAIN, THERE REMAINS LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE SPECIFICS OF
THIS FORECAST, SO STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM. ADDITIONALLY, SOME GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING SOME VERY BULLISH SNOW TOTALS, SO ENSURE YOU ARE
GETTING YOUR INFORMATION FROM TRUSTED SOURCES.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1215 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH TODAY. A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND
EASTERN SHORE THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE W/SW AT 5-8KT
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE BECOMING NW LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE COAST, INCLUDING ORF AND ECG,
WILL SEE GUSTS OF 18-22KT PICK UP AFTER 05Z BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. WATCHING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT
THAT COULD CREATE ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER WEATHER FOR THE TERMINALS.
EXACT IMPACTS AND LOCATIONS AREN'T KNOWN YET, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. STRONG WINDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP FOR COASTAL TERMINALS WITH THIS STORM, AS WELL AS
ELEVATED WINDS INLAND.
MARINE
AS OF 125 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY,
COASTAL WATERS, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING DUE TO ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
A COLD FRONT.
- CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN HIGH-END GALE OR STORM CONDITIONS
THIS WEEKEND AS A STRONG COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS.
- FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THE BEST CHANCE THIS WEEKEND. ADDITIONAL FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
A DRY COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE OUT OF THE NNW AT 15-25KT. SCAS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY AND THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. AFTER
THIS BRIEF SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM THE WEST. BY THIS
AFTERNOON, WNW WINDS WILL BE DOWN TO 5-10KT. NW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
LATE TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF CAA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR THE BAY
FOR 15-20KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 25KT. COULD SEE SOME 5FT SEAS OUT
NEAR 20NM WITH THIS SURGE, BUT THINKING THE COASTAL WATERS SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN SUB-SCA. BREEZY, BUT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THURS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL
STORM OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STRONG SURFACE
LOW FORMING ALONG AND TRAVELING UP THE COAST EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. WHAT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IS THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING, WHICH
WILL DICTATE JUST HOW STRONG WINDS WILL BE. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE IN AT LEAST GALE, IF NOT STORM-FORCE, WINDS. CURRENT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS INCREASING SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT AND PEAKING AT
35-45KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50KT SUNDAY MORNING (25-35KT IN THE
RIVERS). SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON WIND
DIRECTION, BUT CURRENTLY FORECASTING 8-12FT SEAS AND 5-7FT WAVES IN
THE BAY.
LASTLY, PERIODS OF LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK DUE TO COLD WATER AND AIR TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS.
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OVER THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-
095>100-509>525.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...LKB/JKP
MARINE...AC
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