307
FXUS61 KAKQ 281047
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
647 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
URBAN AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS COULD SEE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
TODAY FROM SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. WPC HAS
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN A SLIGHT ERO.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH RESPECT TO HOT TEMPERATURES
DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
2) HOT CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN TODAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SITUATED OFF TO OUR WEST
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED WELL OFFSHORE. SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS FAR NW OR
SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH SUNRISE.
THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE
EVENTUALLY STALLING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SURFACE
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL BOOST MLCAPE
VALUES TO ~1500 J/KG. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN ~2 AND 5 PM EDT ALONG SEA/BAY BREEZE
BOUNDARIES AND ALONG THE STALLED FRONT. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MID-
LEVEL FLOW (25 TO 30 KNOTS) COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. SPC HAS ALL OF THE AREA
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER
TODAY.
IN ADDITION TO A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY, TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO 2.00"+. WPC HAS THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA (INCLUDING MUCH OF HAMPTON ROADS)
HIGHLIGHTED IN A DAY 1 SLIGHT ERO (2 OUT OF 5) WITH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA IN A MARGINAL ERO (1 OUT OF 5). THE 00Z HREF HIGHLIGHTS THE
SE PORTION OF THE AREA WITH A 30% CONTOUR OF >3" IN THE 3 HOURS QPF,
WHICH USUALLY RESULTS IN AN ELEVATED FLOODING THREAT. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED INSTANCE OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RAIN CHANCES LINGER
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT BEFORE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE FRONT WEAKENS BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS FAR SE VA INTO
NE NC ON SATURDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE
CLOSEST TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND. WPC HAS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE VA/NC
BORDER HIGHLIGHTED IN A DAY 2 MARGINAL ERO FOR SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...HOT CONDITIONS PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
AN EXPANSIVE 500MB RIDGE (1.5 TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL)
BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH NBM AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO
FAVOR STRONG DIABATIC HEATING MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR INLAND AREAS. 850MB TEMPERATURES OF 19-21C
AND STRONG 1000-850MB THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT DEEP MIXING DURING
PEAK HEATING, WHICH SHOULD PULL AFTERNOON DEW POINTS DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. PEAK HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
105, GENERALLY HOVERING AROUND 100-104 EACH DAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
MINIMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE
WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE FROM ~18Z
TO 02Z SATURDAY. ANY STORMS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
IFR TO MVFR VSBYS AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS. THE BEST STORM
POTENTIAL IS AT THE SE TERMINALS. CHANCES DIMINISH AFTER 02Z
SATURDAY, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY, WITH
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY ACROSS THE SE TERMINALS. PREDOMINATELY
DRY/VFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN CONDITIONS TODAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A WEAK
FRONT BRIEFLY MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY.
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH GREATER STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN VA AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING,
BUT THERE'S NOT MUCH OF A WIND SURGE AHEAD OF IT. LATEST OBS
INDICATE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE SW AT 5-10KT, WAVES ARE 1FT OR LESS,
AND SEAS ARE 2-3FT. GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY, HOWEVER DO EXPECT HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STRONG WINDS AND LOCALLY ENHANCED
WAVES/SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED IN AND AROUND THUNDERSTORMS CORES
TOMORROW. THE WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BY
SATURDAY MORNING BUT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COLD OR DRY
ADVECTION, NOT EXPECTING N/NW WINDS TO EXCEED ~12 KT. LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. WAVES WILL
MAINLY HOLD IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE WITH SEAS 2-3 FT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY DUE TO NEARSHORE WAVES
BUILDING TO 3 FT WITH A 8-9 SECOND DOMINANT PERIOD. EXPECT LOW RIP
RISKS TO RETURN FOR ALL BEACHES INTO THE WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AC/RHR
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