373
FXUS61 KAKQ 311509
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1009 AM EST WED DEC 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1010 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY AND A BIT BREEZY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 MPH TODAY.
MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG LOW PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND
ALOFT IN QUEBEC WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/WESTERN GULF COAST. OUR AREA CONTINUES TO BE IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT ON THE SW SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA. PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN NECK AND MD EASTERN SHORE SAW LOCALIZED SNOW TOTALS UP
TO 0.5" EARLIER THIS MORNING AS A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE PUSHED
THROUGH. HOWEVER, DRY WX PREVAILS AT THIS HOUR AND SKIES ARE
CLEARING FOR MOST OF THE AREA (OUTSIDE OF LINGERING MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS ON THE EASTERN SHORE). HIGHS WARM INTO THE LOWER-MID 40S
WITH SW WINDS GUSTING UP TO ~20 MPH. ALTHOUGH FORECAST WIND
SPEEDS AND RH VALUES MAY NOT MEET FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
CRITERIA, HAVE COORDINATED WITH NCFS AND HAVE ISSUED AN SPS FROM
11 AM TO 5 PM TODAY FOR NE NC. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW
FOR DETAILS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 235 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.
- A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS E/NE PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH OUR AREA REMAINING IN WNW-NW FLOW
ALOFT. COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S-LOWER 30S IN MOST
AREAS. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA BETWEEN 4-
10 AM THURSDAY MORNING. CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWER
WITH THE FROPA, ESPECIALLY IN E/NE PORTIONS OF THE FA. HAVE ADDED
SLIGHT CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT NO ACCUMS/IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH TEMPS LIKELY RISING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING
BEFORE ANY PRECIP ARRIVES. HIGHS ON THURS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S ACROSS THE N AND LOW TO MID 40S ALONG AND S OF I-64. LOWS
IN THE LOW-MID 20S RETURN THURS NIGHT WITH SOME OF TYPICAL COLDER
SPOTS PERHAPS SEEING THE UPPER TEENS. DRY AND SEASONABLE ON FRIDAY
AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 40S-LOWER 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 235 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THOUGH IT
BECOMES A BIT LESS AMPLIFIED BY SUNDAY. LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE CONTINUED NW FLOW. HOWEVER, STILL
MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT PRECIP ON
SATURDAY/SATURDAY EVENING AS A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH TO THE CAROLINAS. THE 00Z/31 GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED NORTHWARD AND THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE ~0.10" OF PRECIP
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FA, WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST
NORTH OF I-64. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE RAIN, ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW
MAY MIX IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL VA PIEDMONT IF PRECIP MAKES IT THAT
FAR NORTH (WHICH IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN). COOL/DRY WX PREVAILS FROM SUN-
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. HIGHS
FRI-SUN WILL BE PRETTY SIMILAR EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE AROUND SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A MODERATING
TREND POSSIBLE BY TUE/WED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND
THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT SOME.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 615 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVING OFFSHORE BY 14-16Z. CIGS REMAIN VFR
(5000-10000 FT). THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW AT SBY BETWEEN
NOW-13Z, AND WILL ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP. IF IT
DOES SNOW, VSBYS COULD DROP TO 2-3SM FOR A LITTLE BIT. MOSTLY
SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED AFTER MID MORNING.
WINDS BECOME SW 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATER TODAY. VFR
TONIGHT WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK: DRY AND GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK. SOME HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A LINE OF BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
MOVING FROM NW TO SE EARLY THU MORNING. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY LOW.
MARINE
AS OF 235 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH
SW WINDS.
- SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS STARTING TONIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
TEXAS AND A STRONG LOW OVER FAR NORTHERN CANADA. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS HAVE WEAKENED THROUGH THE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING, THUS ALLOWING THE WINDS TO LIGHTEN OUT OF
THE NNW. RECENT MORNINGS OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT WITH A GUSTS OR TWO NEARING 20KT
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO HAVE SCA. SEAS CONTINUE TO BEHAVE AS WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE BETWEEN 1-2 FT ACROSS THE BAY AND 3-4FT ACROSS THE
OCEAN. THROUGH THE DAY WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SW AS A WEAK
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND 10 TO 15 KT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH AN
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KT. LOCAL WINDS PROBS CONTINUE
TO SHOW ~50 PERCENT OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 18 KT ACROSS THE
BAY FROM THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THESE LOW PROBS
AND HAVING SW WINDS THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO HAVE A SCA
FOR THE BAY FOR LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL. HOWEVER, BY THIS EVENING AS THE
COLD FRONT FROM THE DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH APPROACHES THE
REGION THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE BRINGING WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SW INITIALLY TONIGHT
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF
25 KT. THEN BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WHEN THE
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL ENTRAIN THE AREA
AND WITH STRONG MIXING WILL PRODUCE GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KT.
THROUGHOUT THE DAY THURSDAY WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA. WAVES ON
THE CHESAPEAKE BAY GENERALLY AVERAGE 1-2 FT, BUT LIKELY WILL
INCREASE TO 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THE
OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION WILL PREVENT SEAS FROM INCREASING TOO
MUCH, MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS 3-5 FT DURING THIS TIME, HIGHEST 10+
NM OFFSHORE. WITH HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST, SCA
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS STARTING THIS EVENING
AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS
RETURN THROUGH FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH POSSIBLE ELEVATED
MARINE CONDITIONS MAKING A RETURN TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AS A
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 615 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 30-35%, SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 15-25
MPH, AND DRY FUELS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE AN INCREASED FIRE
DANGER FOR NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. WHILE WIND AND RH
CRITERIA MAY NOT BE MET, HAVE ISSUED AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT AFTER COORDINATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES/STATE
OFFICIALS IN PART DUE TO THE DRY FUELS. THE SPS IS IN EFFECT
FROM 11 AM TO 5 PM TODAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...ERI/SW
SHORT TERM...AC/ERI
LONG TERM...AC/ERI
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...HET
FIRE WEATHER...
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