349
FXUS61 KAKQ 041930
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 PM EDT THU SEP 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THROUGH THIS EVENING,
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS. A SECOND, STRONGER
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE. COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 225 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PRIMARILY
NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1016MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. TO THE NORTH,
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALOFT, DEEP H5 LOW
REMAINS OVER ONTARIO AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION, WITH BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING REMAINING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS.
MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME INCREASING CLOUDS WEST OF I-95 INTO W VA/WV AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS LIFTING ACROSS NW
NC AND THE VA FOOTHILLS TO OUR WEST SLIDE CLOSER TO THE REGION
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE FRONT WEAKENING AND SLOWING
DOWN AS THE PARENT TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ACROSS N ONTARIO.
OVERALL, STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS
CROSS INTO THE REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 12Z CAMS AND THE
PAST FEW SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR STILL FEATURE A BROKEN LINE
OF (WEAKENING) CONVECTION CROSSING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS (2-4P EDT), REACHING RIC METRO AND
THE NORTHERN NECK CLOSER TO 5-7PM BEFORE WEAKENING NEAR AND
ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. STILL APPEARS THAT AREAS NW OF RICHMOND
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH
30-50% POPS IN THE FORECAST. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN THE
PRIMARY THREAT DUE TO DECENT LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER,
THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS LIMITED MOISTURE AND MODEST
INSTABILITY, WITH MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWING PW 1.25-1.5 AND
SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF ~750 TO 1000 J/KG AS OF THIS
WRITING. SPC HAS MAINTAINED MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG-WEST OF I-95
(AND UP TO THE NORTHERN NECK) IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH THIS EVENING.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET,
THOUGH A FEW LINGER SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT
FOR MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT LIKELY
WASHES OUT BEFORE IT CAN REACH THE COASTAL PLAIN TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, AND ACCORDINGLY POPS THIS EVENING DROP OFF
TO LITTLE OR NOTHING EAST OF A LINE FROM ROANOKE RAPIDS TO
WAKEFIELD/WILLIAMSBURG AND SALISBURY. MILD TONIGHT WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 225 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO THE LOWER 90S.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER WARM DAY TOMORROW, WITH WINDS REMAINING OUT OF THE
S-SW. THAT DEEP-LAYERED SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE DAY MOSTLY SUNNY
AND DRY, WHILE ALSO PROMOTING ANOTHER MODEST WARMUP. HIGHS
TOMORROW ARE LIKELY TO BE THE WARMEST AROUND THE LOWER MID-
ATLANTIC SINCE MID-AUGUST, WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 90
FOR MOST AREAS WEST OF THE BAY UNDER A MAINLY SUNNY SKY.
REMAINING MILD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
BY SATURDAY, ANOTHER STRONG CLOSED LOW LIFTS NE OUT OF THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA. THIS WILL SEND THE ATTENDANT
STRONG SURFACE COLD TOWARD THE AREA SATURDAY, WITH THAT FRONT
CROSSING THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING WILL
BE MAXIMIZED AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT ON SATURDAY, WITH
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THOSE OF FRIDAY, AND RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, BOTH ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE PIEDMONT AND THEN WITH THE ACTUAL
FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY EVENING. COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN WHAT WE SEE LATER TODAY, WITH BETTER FORCING,
MORE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, AS WELL AS
STEEPENING LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
INTO THE HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE (40-60%), PEAKING SATURDAY
EVENING. SIMILAR TO TODAY, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. SPC HAS INTRODUCED A MARGINAL
RISK OVER THE NW 2/3 OF THE AREA, ROUGHLY ALONG AND NW OF A LINE
FROM AHOSKIE TO WILLIAMSBURG AND SALISBURY, MD. THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A CLEARING SKY
LATE INLAND ALLOWING LOWS TO FALL BACK INTO UPPER 50S INLAND,
60S ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONT SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AS CHILLY
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST
ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT THE CLEARING
TREND TO PERSIST. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY LOOK TO BE MARKEDLY COOLER
COMPARED TO SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S
INLAND, WITH UPPER 70S FAR SE.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY/TUESDAY
WITH THE COASTAL TROUGH ALSO SHIFTING A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE.
DRY, FALL-LIKE DAYS LOOK TO BE BACK IN PLACE FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE
LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST, TO 50S INLAND WITH A FEW UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE WELL INLAND EACH MORNING FROM TUE-WED. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN QUITE LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH THEY MAY INCREASE
ACROSS FAR SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, AS MOISTURE RIDES NORTH ALONG THE
STALLED COASTAL TROUGH.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 225 PM EDT THURSDAY...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST INTO THIS
EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH LOCALLY STRONG
WINDS POSSIBLE (BEST COVERAGE NORTH AND WEST OF RIC). CONFIDENCE
IN ANY STORMS REACHING RIC IS LOW, AND HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED
A PROB30 FOR SHOWERS AT RIC AFTER 23Z/7P THROUGH ABOUT 02Z/10P.
S WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK: DRY/VFR ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CHANCE OF LATE
DAY AND EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
FOR ALL TERMINALS ON SATURDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHORT-LIVED
VIS/CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORM. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- MODERATE RIP RISK FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES TOMORROW.
- ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE BAY
LATE FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SCA CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF THE NW BUT STILL REMAINS FAR
FROM THE LOCAL AREA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS
INCREASE LEADING TO SE TO S WINDS TO BE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT WITH
SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. WAVES THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN BETWEEN 1 TO
2FT ACROSS THE BAY AND 2 TO 3FT ACROSS THE OCEAN. LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BOTH WAVES AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE.
WINDS WILL RISE TO 15 TO POSSIBLE 20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 25
KT. SMALL CRAFTS CONTINUE FOR THE BAY AS THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE
AND LONGER DURATION OF SCA CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES
BORDERING THE EASTERN SHORE. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SHORT DURATION OF
THESE ISOLATED 25KT GUSTS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON SCA FOR THE
NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES. SEAS WILL ALSO RISE TO 2 TO 3 FT ACROSS THE
BAY AND 3 TO 4 ACROSS THE OCEAN.
BY TOMORROW MORNING WINDS WILL WILL DIMINISH AND WILL STAY SUB-SCA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE THE DECAYING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. BY THAT TIME FRAME WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT O THE SE TO ~15 WITH MAYBE SOME GUSTS NEARING 20 KT.
LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE INCREASE TO 80 TO 90% OF FREQUENT GUSTS OF 18
KT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OF TOMORROW AND INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONAL SCA MAYBE NEEDED FOR THE BAY AGAIN. A MUCH
STRONGER FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
CONTINUES TO GO WITH THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR THE NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT, SINCE GUIDANCE TENDS TO BE TOO LOW WHEN
COOLER, DRIER AIR MOVES IN OVER THE WARM WATERS THIS TIME OF YEAR.
SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST THE BAY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LOOKING AHEAD IN THE EXTENDED THE NE WIND IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS
A HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS
AND SEAS TO INCREASE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 330 PM EDT THURSDAY...
AS THE SE TO S WIND PREVAIL THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TIDAL ANOMALIES TO
INCREASE REACHING 1-1.5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL BY TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. SOME NUISANCE TO MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING, AGAIN MAINLY IN THE UPPER BAY. THE HIGHEST HIGH TIDE LOOKS
TO BE TONIGHT, WITH MINOR TO NEAR MODERATE FLOOD THRESHOLDS POSSIBLE
AT BISHOPS HEAD. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN NECK AND ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN SHORE ON THE BAY SIDE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR VAZ099.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJB/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...AC/HET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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