306
FXUS61 KAKQ 050616
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WARMUP CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S EACH DAY.
2) A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING A LOW CHANCE FOR
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AND BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 215 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A WARMUP CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S EACH DAY.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. TEMPS AS OF 150 AM RANGED FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. MORNING LOWS IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S ARE STILL EXPECTED. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
LOCATIONS EVEN DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S.
THE SURFACE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR WARMER (AND DRY) WEATHER THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH MID 90S SATURDAY AND LOW-
MID 90S SUN (WARMEST SOUTH). EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT,
DEW POINTS WILL STRUGGLE TO RECOVER. IN FACT, AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
WILL LIKELY BE NO HIGHER THAN THE MID-UPPER 50S THROUGH SATURDAY,
KEEPING HEAT INDICES AROUND (OR EVEN JUST BELOW) THE ACTUAL AIR
TEMPS. DEW POINTS APPEAR TO RISE ON SUN INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WITH MAX HEAT INDICES SIMILAR TO SAT (MID 90S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS AND UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ALONG THE COAST).
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS AND BRIEFLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND SUN, PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO
THE LOCAL AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DEW POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS. HOWEVER, FORCING REMAINS WEAK GIVEN THE DISPLACEMENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW WELL TO THE NE. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. FOR NOW, HAVE KEPT NBM POPS OF
15-30% FOR MOST AND 30-50% ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC. IN ANY CASE,
RAINFALL (IF ANY) WILL LIKELY BE LOW WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOT
RECEIVING MORE THAN A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN. RAIN
CHANCES DIMINISH SUN NIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT.
BRIEFLY COOLER WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
NE TO THE LOWER 90S SW MON AND MID-UPPER 70S E TO THE MID-UPPER 80S
W TUE. HOWEVER, THIS COOLER WEATHER WILL BE BRIEF WITH TEMPS WARMING
BY MIDWEEK. WHILE POPS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME, THERE ARE SOME SIGNS
OF A BIT OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING BY MID-LATE WEEK WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 125 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD.
SOME CIRRUS (PRIMARILY FEW WITH PERHAPS SCT AT TIMES) WILL
STREAM OVERHEAD TODAY. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE.
WILL NOTE THAT THE HRRR HAS THICKER CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AREA-WIDE, HOWEVER, THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME SW AT RIC/SBY/PHF AND S AT ORF/ECG
BETWEEN 5-10 KT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD
COVER INCREASES TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING DUE TO CIRRUS.
OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS INTO CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY SUNDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS (20-40% CHC) ARRIVES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY/TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GENERALLY AN E TO NE WIND.
MARINE
AS OF 150 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
- A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF NE/ONSHORE FLOW AND POTENTIAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. WINDS LOCALLY ARE SW AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT.
WAVES ARE 1-2 FT IN THE CHES BAY WITH SEAS NEARSHORE RANGING FROM 2-
4 FT (HIGHEST S) AND 3-5 FT IN THE 20-60NM ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS OFFSHORE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY SW 10-15
KT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHTS
WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20
KT. LOCAL WIND PROBABILITIES ARE NOT ENTHUSED REGARDING A SUSTAINED
PERIOD OF SCA-LEVEL WINDS IN THE CHES BAY BUT A PERIOD OF 20-25 KT
GUSTS IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS SATURDAY EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WAVE GUIDANCE ALSO IMPLIES A PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS
IN THE SAME AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BUT MODELS TEND TO OVERESTIMATE SEA
HEIGHTS IN MARGINAL SW FLOW. WEAKER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE WATERS BY EARLY MONDAY. A PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE
BEHIND THIS FRONT AS NE WINDS STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD. CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS FORECAST FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY. A
MODERATE RIP RISK LIKELY CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN BEACHES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...RHR
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