805
FXUS61 KAKQ 190654
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
254 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS MORNING, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC.
2) DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY FOR THE
WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1....RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS MORNING, WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC.
THE REMNANTS OF TS ARTHUR ARE GRADUALLY LIFTING ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST IS DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION. STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA HAVE LULLED,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ONE THUNDERSTORM TRACING THE FRINGE OF OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE BEST
ENVIRONMENT FOR CONVECTION STILL TO OUR SW, MOST OF THE RAIN HAS
TRANSITIONED TO STRATIFORM THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE
70S TO LOWER 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S, MAKING FOR A SOMEWHAT MUGGY MORNING. THE LATEST
SPC MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN CAPE ACROSS THE
AREA SINCE LAST EVENING, THOUGH SOME INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN LATER THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY, THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
THOUGH A FEW STRONGER STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE GREATER
THREAT WILL BE FROM MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AS THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH, IN TANDEM WITH THE DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TC ARTHUR MOVING IN FROM THE SW.
THIS WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN A NARROW BAND ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE,
THOUGH THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD
MAKE FOR HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
BRIEFLY IMPRESSIVE RAIN RATES. SOME GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWN IN
REGARDS TO QPF ACROSS OUR AREA/SHIFTED THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF
RAINFALL TO OUR SOUTH, BUT THERE STILL MAY BE A NARROW CORRIDOR
ACROSS OUR AREA THAT SEES 1-2" OF RAINFALL BETWEEN SUNRISE AND
MIDDAY TODAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE. WHERE THIS
CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL SETS UP IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, BUT
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS SE VA/NE NC IF IT DOES OCCUR ACROSS OUR
AREA. MOISTURE SLIDES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH QUICK
CLEARING FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2...DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY
FOR THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN MONDAY.
SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW THIS EVENING,
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. GEFS AND EURO ENSEMBLES SHOW PWAT VALUES DROPPING DOWN TO
ABOUT 50% TO 60% OF NORMAL, LEADING TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 60S. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS SET TO AFFECT THE AREA MONDAY WITH
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURNING, ALONG WITH HIGHER HUMIDITY. THE
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THE SYSTEM WILL ONCE AGAIN
DICTATE THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION THE AREA SEES. OTHERWISE, ONLY
SLIGHT TO LOW-END MODERATE CHANCES FOR RAIN AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS, THIS WILL
NOT LAST FOR LONG. CONDITIONS WILL START TO DETERIORATE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WITH A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE INCLUDED MVFR/IFR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AREA-WIDE FROM 09/12Z TO ~18-21Z FRI, LINGERING THE
LONGEST AT THE SE TERMINALS. THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TERMINALS, THE TIMING AND LOCATION IS
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, SO HAVE NO INCLUDED MENTION IN MOST TAFS (ASIDE
FROM ECG) AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHIFT TO THE N-NE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS SHOWERS MOVE OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK: DRIER CONDITIONS/VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FRI EVENING
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES RETURN
MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 255 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER FOR THIS MORNING FOR W-SW WINDS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- SCA LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS APPEAR UNLIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON, AS GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS POTENTIAL SINCE
YESTERDAY.
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SCAS
LIKELY ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS CROSSED PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREA EARLIER
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TS ARTHUR, WHICH IS IN WESTERN
NC AND TRACKING EASTWARD. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT REMAINS TO OUR
NORTH AND IS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. WE SAW A
SURGE OF SW WINDS (TO 15-25 KT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS) DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AS MORE MOIST, HIGHER THETA-E AIR MOVED IN WELL
AHEAD OF THE REMNANT LOW. WINDS HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL 20 KT GUSTS. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM TS ARTHUR
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NC AND MOVE OFFSHORE LATER
TODAY. AT THE SAME TIME, THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WITH W/SW FLOW BECOMING N AND NW
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. A MODEST INCREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE REMNANT LOW/COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ALLOW THE W-SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT (HIGHEST OVER THE LOWER BAY AND POSSIBLY LOWER JAMES).
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING, MAINLY AT
ELEVATED LOCATIONS. AS SUCH, HAVE ISSUED MARGINAL SCAS FOR THE LOWER
BAY AND LOWER JAMES FROM 4 AM-NOON. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WINDS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON (MAINLY
SOUTH), WHICH WOULD BE HANDLED SEPARATELY WITH MWSS/SMWS IF NEEDED.
WHILE THE GUIDANCE YESTERDAY HAD A BRIEF, STRONGER SURGE OF
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE 00Z
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS. THEREFORE, HAVE ENDED SCA HEADLINES
AT NOON. NW WINDS 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCAS APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA FROM
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ632-634-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
652-654-656-658.
DISCUSSION...LKB/NB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...RHR/ERI
CLIMATE...MAM
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