356
FXUS61 KAKQ 030949
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
549 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
- UPGRADED HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN NE NC TO AN
EXTREME HEAT WARNING, WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING.
- HEAT ADVISORY FOR OBX CURRITUCK AND MD BEACHES EXTENDED
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
- SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTRODUCED FOR THE PIEDMONT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
- SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX EXPANDED TO COVER MOST OF VA ON
INDEPENDENCE DAY/SATURDAY
- SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WX NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AREA SUNDAY
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BEFORE BREAKING DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT IN BOTH MAGNITUDE AND DURATION SINCE JULY 2012 FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
2) THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO
SEVERE WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN.
3) TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIALLY FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 305 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...A PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, BEFORE BREAKING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IN BOTH MAGNITUDE
AND DURATION SINCE JULY 2012 FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS PEAK TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY AN ANONYMOUSLY STRONG UPPER-
LEVEL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE, WITH CURRENT ANALYSIS PLACING THE
STRENGTH OF THIS HIGH AT ~596 DM. THE CENTER OF THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE WESTERN BORDER OF OUR CWA TODAY (AS IT WAS
YESTERDAY) BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING S TONIGHT AND BREAKING DOWN
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A GENERALLY NEBULOUS/WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS
PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE THE TYPICAL LEE TROUGHING THAT DEVELOPS IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THIS WILL FOCUS A GRADUALLY INCREASING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, COINCIDENT WITH
THE RIDGE BREAKING DOWN AND THE ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT.
REGARDING THE HEAT SPECIFICS, WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOWER 100S ARE EXPECTED TODAY. COMBINED WITH HUMID CONDITIONS (DEW
POINTS IN THE 70-75 F DURING PEAK HEATING), WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES
AROUND OR IN EXCESS OF 110 F ARE FORECAST FROM LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME LOCATIONS FLIRTING WITH THE MID 100S.
HOWEVER, THIS WOULD BE LIKELY BE CONTINGENT ON DEEP MIXING PROCESSES
WITH A RESULTANT DROP OF THE DEW POINTS INTO THE THE 60S. BASED ON
WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, WHERE DEW POINTS REMAINED ELEVATED OR EVEN
INCREASED SOME IN THE AFTERNOON, THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY.
SIMILARLY HOT SATURDAY WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE 110 F
HEAT INDICES, ESPECIALLY EARLY. THERE IS A HIGHER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY N OF THE NC/VA STATE LINE, AND
THIS COULD PUT AN EARLY END TO DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES. REGARDLESS,
AM QUITE CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST THE 10 AM-3 PM TIME PERIOD WILL BE
DANGEROUSLY HOT. A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER BY SUNDAY (BUT STILL
VERY HOT) AS 850 MB TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP, CLOUD COVER BECOMES A
BIT MORE PREVALENT, AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES. FIRST,
CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH IN HEAT INDICES PEAKING AROUND OR
JUST ABOVE 110 F FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NE NC TODAY. THEREFORE,
THE PREVIOUSLY ISSUED HEAT ADVISORY (FOR TODAY) AND EXTREME HEAT
WATCH (FOR SATURDAY) HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING FROM 10 AM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. ELSEWHERE,
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN UNCHANGED AND ARE ALSO IN EFFECT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. HEAT ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE MD BEACHES AND OBX CURRITUCK. WILL
REVISIT SUNDAY IN FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES, BUT AT LEAST A HEAT
ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY INCREASES OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS COULD PRODUCE STRONG
TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAIN.
THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TODAY. STRONG
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE VERY HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS. HOWEVER, THE STRONG RIDGE ALOFT FAVORS SUBSIDENCE AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RATHER STOUT CAP JUST ABOVE THE MIXED
LAYER. THERE ARE SEVERAL CAMS THAT SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY, BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS IS MAINLY AN ARTIFACT OR
IF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BE BREACHED. SHOULD AN
UPDRAFT SURVIVE THROUGH THE CAP, SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES IN
EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD FAVOR
STRONG DOWNBURSTS. THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHLY CONDITIONAL AND,
AGAIN, IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN IF ANY STORMS WILL ACTUALLY FORM IN
OUR CWA IN THE FIRST PLACE. THE BEST SHOT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND HAVE DRAWN IN A 20% POP AFTER 5 PM. THERE IS
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FROM SPC ACROSS THE N BUT ANY LOCATION
THAT SEES A STORM WOULD BE AT RISK FOR THE ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ON INDEPENDENCE DAY/SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN. WOULD EXPECT ANY STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OR IN THE PIEDMONT, MOVING EASTWARD IN THE DEEP-LAYER
WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE EVENING. THERE IS AGAIN A RISK FOR SEVERE-
CALIBER WIND GUSTS GIVEN THE VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) ENCOMPASSES MOST OF OUR VA
AND MD COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY, A BELT OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER FLOW/SHEAR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OR SO OF OUR AREA COULD ALSO ALLOW FOR AN
AREA OF ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE
GROWTH INTO A CLUSTER-TYPE FEATURE IS POSSIBLE. THESE STORMS COULD
INTERFERE WITH EVENING FESTIVITIES SO USERS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE WEATHER AND HAVE A PLAN IN PLACE DUE TO IMPACTS
FROM BOTH THE HEAT AND STORMS.
ADDITIONAL THREATS OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE ON THE TABLE
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN MORE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE THESE DAYS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, HEAVY
RAINFALL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE PRIMARY STORMS
THREATS.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE POTENTIALLY FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
THE RIDGE BECOMES SHUNTED TO OUR SOUTH BEYOND MONDAY, WITH THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW TURNING QUASI-ZONAL. THIS PATTERN IS VERY TYPICAL FOR THE
MIDDLE OF SUMMER WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
IN THE MIDST OF SURFACE TROUGHING AND WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSING
THROUGH ALOFT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TREND BACK TOWARD SEASONAL
NORMS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 550 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF FEW-SCT AFTN CUMULUS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE S-SW AT 5-10 KT TODAY AND VARIABLE
(ESPECIALLY EARLY AFTN) NEAR THE COAST. THE VAST MAJORITY
SHOULD STAY DRY, BUT A VERY ISOLATED TSTM CANNOT BE RULED OUT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY W/NW OF RIC.
OUTLOOK: PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD LEAD TO BRIEFLY DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AT ANY TERMINAL THAT SEES ANY OF THIS CONVECTION.
MARINE
AS OF 305 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH MAINLY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
- STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO OFF THE MID-ATLATNIC
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. THE WIND IS GENERALLY SW 5-10KT AND 10-
15KT OFFSHORE. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 2-3FT WITH ~1FT WAVES IN THE CHES.
BAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED, MAINLY LIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS. SOME
DIURNAL WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION VARIABILITY IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS (MAINLY S-SW IN THE MORNING, BECOMING S-SE
IN THE LATE AFTN/EVENING). ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WOULD BE THE ONLY THING THAT WOULD LEAD
TO BRIEF HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES, WITH STRONG TSTM WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTN AND
EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL BE ~2FT LATER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH 1FT TO OCCASIONALLY 1-2FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGHS:
- SITE: FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4 SUN 7/5
- RIC: 100/1954 100/2002 102/2012
- ORF: 99/1954 98/1997 98/2012
- SBY: 98/1954 100/1919 102/2012
- ECG: 98/1954 100/1997 100/2012
RECORD HIGH MINS:
- SITE: FRI 7/3 SAT 7/4 SUN 7/5
- RIC: 77/2014 77/1900 79/2012
- ORF: 78/2014 79/2012 80/1999
- SBY: 76/2014 78/2012 81/2012
- ECG: 78/2014 78/2012 77/2024
EQUIPMENT
KAKQ RADAR IS DOWN DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES WITHOUT AN
ESTIMATED TIME OF RETURN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR MDZ021>024.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MDZ025.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NCZ102.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064-067>069-075>078-080>086-088>090-509>523.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR VAZ065-066-079-087-092-097>100-524-525-
528>531.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJB/AJZ
CLIMATE...LKB
EQUIPMENT...
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