668
FXUS61 KAKQ 081950
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
250 PM EST SUN FEB 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN SHORE AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST VA AND NORTHEAST NC THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
MID MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
2) BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UNSETTLED PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT INTO MID MONDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. VERY CHILLY ACROSS
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES
OVER THE EASTERN SHORE TO MID AND UPPER 20S FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.
WINDS HAVE DECREASED QUITE A BIT FROM WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY BUT
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO RESULT IN WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE TEENS
TO LOW 20S INLAND AND THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO STEADILY DECREASE TONIGHT BUT TEMPS WILL BE FALLING
AT THE SAME TIME, RESULTING IN ON LAST NIGHT OF ABNORMALLY COLD
CONDITIONS. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE ONGOING FOR THE EASTERN
SHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID MORNING MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT FOR AREAS ALONG
THE WESTERN SHORE OF THE BAY SOUTHWARD INTO NE NC TONIGHT. REMAINING
"CHILLY" ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S BUT WITH MUCH
LESS WIND.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UNSETTLED PATTERN BY LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIPITATION.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE GULF EXPANDS NE TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY, ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SWING AROUND TO THE SW. HIGH
TEMPS TUESDAY RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S FOR AREAS ALONG AND SW
OF I-64, MUCH COOLER FOR THE EASTERN SHORE WITH SW FLOW OFF THE
WATER KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 40S. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST GUIDANCE KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR ANY LIGHT
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY'S BUT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER DUE TO MORE
CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL SHOWERS. COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR THE
LATE WEEK PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE
DETAILS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND BUT THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A FEW CHANCES FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE PLAINS AND TRANSLATES EASTWARD.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM EST SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NW
WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON WITH SOME
GUSTS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING NEAR THE COAST. MAINLY NW 5-10
KT TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOME PASSING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION BY THE EVENING HOURS.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUE. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS ON WED. OTHERWISE, A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EST SATURDAY....
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND INTO MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS.
- FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND COASTAL WATERS.
- SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS RETURN LATER MONDAY INTO
MIDWEEK.
THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH PRESSURE (~1030 MB) HAS SETTLED OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED COMPARED TO THIS
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE WELL OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST. STILL SEEING A BREEZY NW WIND OVER THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES, WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 15 TO 25 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.
WINDS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WILL AVERAGE NW 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER ON MONDAY, AVERAGING NW 5
TO 15 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE UPPER
RIVERS THROUGH 6 PM, LOWER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND THROUGH 9 PM,
CHESAPEAKE BAY THROUGH 4 AM MONDAY, AND THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF MONDAY (LINGERING LONGEST SOUTH DUE TO 5+ FOOT SEAS).
GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY, BUT MIXING WILL BE VERY LIMITED DUE TO VERY COLD (OR
FROZEN) WATER. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST WEDNESDAY, WITH STEADY
CAA DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE ELEVATED WIND WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES, THE THREAT FOR
FREEZING SPRAY CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ014>017-031-032-102.
VA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ084-
086-089-090-093-095>098-523>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
DISCUSSION...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJB
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page