382  
FXUS61 KAKQ 231905  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
305 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ENHANCED  
FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM  
THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING COOL AND DRY  
CONDITIONS WITH LESS WIND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEK WITH  
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/  
 
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
- BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, LEADING TO ANOTHER  
DAY WITH INCREASED FIRE DANGER.  
 
- FROST ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE  
AREA WITH FREEZE WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST  
PIEDMONT.  
 
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE  
MIDWEST WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA.  
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST WIND  
OF 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH. AS SUCH, HAVE MAINTAINED AN  
INCREASED FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE EASTERN  
SHORE AND NORTHERN OBX. TEMPS AS OF 220 PM WERE GENERALLY IN THE MID  
(LOCALLY UPPER) 60S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S-70F  
EXPECTED. DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S  
THIS AFTERNOON, YIELDING MIN RH VALUES OF 20-25% IN MOST AREAS AND  
30-35% ON THE EASTERN SHORE. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE  
GRADIENT WEAKENS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH BUILDS SE TOWARD  
THE AREA (BUT STILL REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR WEST). WILL CONTINUE TO  
UNDERCUT NBM TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES, WITH LOWER 30S LIKELY  
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, MID 30S LIKELY ACROSS MOST OTHER INLAND AREAS  
WEST OF THE BAY, UPPER 30S ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA  
AND FOR THE EASTERN SHORE, AND 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. GIVEN  
THE FORECAST TEMPS, WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED INLAND. AS SUCH,  
HAVE EXPANDED THE FROST ADVISORIES FARTHER EAST TO INCLUDE MOST  
COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE COAST AND WEST OF THE BAY. ADDITIONALLY, HAVE  
UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING FOR LOUISA, FLUVANNA, AND GOOCHLAND  
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOWS BETWEEN 30-32F. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW  
LOCATIONS FARTHER SOUTH IN THE PIEDMONT DROPPING TO AROUND 32, BUT  
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO EXPAND THE FREEZE WARNING ANY FARTHER.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/  
 
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 
- WIDESPREAD FROST IS LIKELY AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING  
GIVEN LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND.  
 
MOSTLY SUNNY AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRI AND SAT. HIGHS IN THE  
LOWER 60S N TO MID-UPPER 60S S FRI AND ~60F N TO MID 60S S SAT ARE  
EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING  
GIVEN LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, LOW-MID 30S ACROSS  
MOST OTHER INLAND AREAS WEST OF THE BAY, MID-UPPER 30S ACROSS FAR  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND FOR THE EASTERN SHORE, AND 40S  
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SAT MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE A COUPLE OF  
DEGREES COOLER THAN TONIGHT GIVEN A MORE FAVORABLE HIGH PRESSURE  
POSITION OVERHEAD. AS SUCH, BELOW FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE PIEDMONT WITH LOCALIZED TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S POSSIBLE  
IN LOUISA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THAT NW PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE CURRENTLY  
UNDER A FREEZE WARNING FOR TONIGHT, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL  
FREEZE WATCHES AS THOSE COUNTIES MAY SEE AN END TO THE FROST/FREEZE  
PROGRAM IF THEY DROP BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT. NEVERTHELESS,  
WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED WITH ADDITIONAL FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES  
LIKELY.  
 
CLOUDS INCREASE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, WITH UNCERTAINTY ON ADDITIONAL  
FROST FORMATION. FOR NOW, HAVE LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S FOR MOST  
INLAND AREAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE  
FROM AROUND 60F N TO MID 60S S SUN WITH LOWS SUN NIGHT INTO MON IN  
THE LOWER 40S W TO LOWER 50S E ALONG THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, CANNOT  
RULE OUT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT SUN NIGHT (20-25%  
POPS).  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
- RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH SUN INTO THE MIDDLE OF  
NEXT WEEK, RIDGING INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS  
IN FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT A TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION  
BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINITY  
REGARDING SPECIFICS, SOME DEGREE OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS WILL  
PROBABLY OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK TO OUR SOUTH OR OFF THE  
COAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WEAKER LOW EARLY IN THE  
WEEK. WHILE IT IS HARD TO TIME ANY POTENTIAL RAINFALL, THERE  
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN MON AND TUE (~30% POPS) WITH THE MOST  
LIKELY TIME FOR RAIN BEING ON WED (40-50% POPS). ENSEMBLE  
GUIDANCE STILL VARIES WIDELY WITH RESPECT TO RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, IT WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 50S OVER  
A DECENT PORTION OF THE FA (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/WEST) FROM MON-  
WED AS WE'LL LIKELY BE LOCKED INTO A CAD REGIME FROM THE EARLY  
TO PERHAPS MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRONG HIGH WELL TO  
OUR NORTH. IF IT DOES RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON TUE OR WED,  
HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE UPPER 40S OVER PORTIONS OF THE  
PIEDMONT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 40S INLAND THROUGH THE  
PERIOD.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/  
 
AS OF 120 PM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
VFR CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES (OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS  
ACROSS FAR S VA AND NE NC TONIGHT) CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z TAF  
PERIOD. W/WSW WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT  
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT.  
WINDS BECOME NW 5-10 KT FRI.  
 
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL  
THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. INCREASING CLOUDS BUT STILL  
DRY/VFR SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- BREEZY, BUT JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TODAY WITH WINDS OUT OF  
THE W.  
 
- BENIGN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND  
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  
 
- UNCERTAIN WEATHER PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM COULD BRING ELEVATED  
SCA CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK.  
 
ANOTHER BREEZY DAY FROM DRY AIR AND GOOD MIXING, THOUGH TO A LESSER  
EXTENT THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE (~1024MB) IS LOCATED OVER THE  
DEEP SOUTH WITH A ~998MB LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC. W WINDS  
ARE CURRENTLY 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. THERE ARE A FEW  
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AOB 20 KT, BUT MOSTLY WITH THE ELEVATED OBS SITES.  
WAVES AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 1-3 FT IN THE CHES. BAY AND 2-4 FT IN  
THE COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING TO ~10 KT WITH  
THE WINDS SHIFTING OUT OF THE NW BY FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE  
CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE  
HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BENIGN  
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NW WINDS ~10KT, ~1 FT WAVES, AND  
2-3 FT SEAS. WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE NE BY SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO MID-WEEK, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SCA  
CONDITIONS. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT, BUT SOME GLOBAL  
MODELS SUGGEST A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING. IF THIS WERE TO DEVELOP,  
HIGH-END SCA WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS COULD BE POSSIBLE. MODEL TRENDS  
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ANALYZED.  
 
 
   
FIRE WEATHER  
 
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...  
 
AN IFD REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF  
CENTRAL/EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. NEARLY  
IDENTICAL CONDITIONS (JUST A BIT COOLER TEMPS AND DEW POINTS)  
ARE EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY. LIGHTER  
WINDS AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. GIVEN MUCH  
LIGHTER WINDS FRI, NO ADDITIONAL IFD IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.  
 
 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR  
NCZ012>017-030>032.  
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR NCZ012-013.  
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-  
060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>098-509>525.  
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ060-061-  
064>069-076-079>083-087-088-092-511>522.  
FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ048-062-509-  
510.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SYNOPSIS...ERI/RMM  
NEAR TERM...RMM  
SHORT TERM...RMM  
LONG TERM...ERI/RMM  
AVIATION...RMM  
MARINE...AC/KMC  
FIRE WEATHER...  
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