940
FXUS61 KAKQ 091151
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
651 AM EST TUE DEC 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SLOWLY PUSHES FARTHER
OFFSHORE EARLY TODAY. VERY COLD THIS MORNING, THEN TURNING
GRADUALLY MILDER THROUGH MIDWEEK. LOW-END SHOWER CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 645 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MID-MORNING
FOR LIKELY AREAS OF BLACK ICE OVER CENTRAL, SOUTH CENTRAL,
AND SOUTHEASTERN VA INTO NORTHEAST NC.
- DRYING OUT WITH SUNSHINE TODAY, THOUGH HIGHS REMAIN IN THE
30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, TO NEAR 40 ALONG THE COAST.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS REVEALS CHILLY THOUGH MODIFYING 1026+MB
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING.
H5 SHORTWAVE AND ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO
THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE REGION IS NOW SLIDING FARTHER OFF THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST, WITH VERY COLD AIR SWEEPING INTO THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TEENS ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT (MAINLY WHERE SNOW FELL FROM FARMVILLE SSW TO SOUTH
HILL), WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S ELSEWHERE, TO
LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
MORNING RUSH TO ACCOUNT FOR LIKELY ICY SPOTS DUE TO ANY
SNOW/SLUSH OVER INLAND AREAS, OR EVEN RE- FREEZING MOISTURE
WHERE LITTLE/NO SNOW OCCURRED OVER NE NC.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL INITIATE A
BRIEF WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK. DESPITE A GOOD AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE, EXPECT SUN WILL BE DOING WORK ON SNOWMELT TODAY,
AND THEREFORE MOST INLAND AREAS OVER TO HAMPTON ROADS REMAIN IN
THE LOW TO MID 30S. SOME UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ALONG THE COAST
FROM THE MD EASTERN SHORE TO NE NC.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, WITH MILDER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, THEN TURNING
COOLER AGAIN THURSDAY.
NOT AS COLD TONIGHT (BUT STILL WITH LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST).
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK IS SET
TO FEATURE AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL CANADA, WITH RESULTANT NW FLOW ALOFT EAST OF THE
ROCKIES. MEANWHILE, THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF CLIPPER LOWS DEEPENS
AND TRACKS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL IN TURN DRAW INCREASING
SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WED/WED NIGHT. THIS SW FLOW, IN TANDEM WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S (NW)
TO LOWER 50S (SE) ON WED. NOT QUITE AS COLD UPPER 20S TO MID
30S WED NIGHT/EARLY THU. ONE LAST PIECE OF THAT MODIFYING ARCTIC
HIGH SWINGS INTO THE AREA ON THU, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER MODEST
COOL DOWN BELOW CLIMO, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S UNDER A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKY.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 230 AM EST TUESDAY...
- TRENDING COOLER THURSDAY, WITH LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY ENDING AS SOME WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES.
- DRY, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THE LATE WEEK TIMEFRAME REMAINS COLDER THAN AVERAGE, WITH
LOW END SHOWER CHANCES FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES CLIPPER LOW IMPACTS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. PRECIP POTENTIALLY CHANGES OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW
MIX BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE NEXT ARCTIC FRONT, RESULTING IN A
MILDER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY. HIGHS HAVE TRENDED 2-3 CATEGORIES
"WARMER", OR REALLY JUST NOT AS COLD, WITH HIGHS NOW LOOKING
JUST BELOW CLIMO. THE FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE WEEKEND, WITH A COOLER DAY IN THE 40S SUNDAY, WITH COLD
LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S SUNDAY NIGHT. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT
THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER PATTERN,
SPECIFICALLY WITH REGARD TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
PATTERN AND AMOUNT OF INFLUENCE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS. THOSE
DIFFERENCES ALSO GET PREDICTABLY LARGER WITH TIME. AS SUCH,
WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IF NOT LIKELY FOR THE
SUNDAY- TUESDAY TIME FRAME NEXT WEEK, WE'LL NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SETUP TO DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF THAT COOL DOWN. THE
GEFS/EC ARE BOTH POINTING TOWARD VARYING DEGREES OF SHARP, BRIEF
SURGE OF COLDER AIR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A WARMUP THEREAFTER,
WHILE THE GEPS KEEPS US QUITE A BIT MILDER. EITHER WAY. IT
APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE A STRONGER N-S
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT GIVEN THE TREND OF THE ECENS/GEFS TOWARD A
MORE BAROCLINIC, FLATTER/QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME. THE
UPSHOT OF THAT WOULD BE BETTER FORCING LIKELY REMAINING NORTH OF
OUR AREA, WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION THREATS IN THE MODIFYING
ARCTIC AIRMASS. HOWEVER, AS WE'VE JUST SEEN...JUST A SMALL WAVE
IN THAT UPPER FLOW CAN MAKE A RATHER SIGNIFICANT IMPACT.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. NNE
WINDS ARE DIMINISHING LARGELY AS EXPECTED, AND WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THIS MORNING BEFORE WINDS BACK TO THE SSW THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY AND INCREASING OUT OF THE SSW LATE
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: WINDS REMAIN SW AND BECOME INCREASINGLY BREEZY ON
WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CHC FOR A SHOWER BY FRIDAY, BUT GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 645 AM EST TUESDAY...
- DIMINISHING WINDS TODAY, BUT SCAS CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR COASTAL WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS.
- WINDS INCREASE AGAIN WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. GALE WATCHES
IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE CHARLES, SCAS LIKELY
ELSEWHERE.
SCA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND,
CHES BAY AND THE LOWER JAMES RIVER.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
AWAY FROM THE COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.
LATEST OBS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS AT 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 20-30KT OVER
THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. BUOY OBS INDICATES SEAS OF 6-8FT OFF
VA/MD AND AROUND 9FT OFF NC COAST. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST
MARINE ZONES, ONLY EXCLUDING THE UPPER TIDAL RIVERS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH HAS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTH TODAY. SHOULD BE ABLE
TO END THE SCAS FOR THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE,
BUT THE COASTAL WATERS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY FOR
ELEVATED SEAS. WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATER THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS IS FORECAST FOR WED AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THE 00Z NAM DOES DEPICT A 50KT+ LLJ WED
AFTERNOON, BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MIXING WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR
GETTING ALL OF THAT DOWN TO THE SURFACE. NEVERTHELESS, STILL
EXPECTING SW WINDS OF 25-30KT WED AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KT
FOR MOST WATERS AND UP TO 40KT OVER NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. WOULD
SAY THAT CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE IN ACHIEVING GALE CONDITIONS DESPITE
LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOWING ~95% FOR GUSTS OF AT LEAST 34KT N OF CAPE
CHARLES GIVEN THE TENDENCY OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TO UNDER-PERFORM IN
THESE SET UPS. AS SUCH, A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN HOISTED FOR THE ZONES
N OF CAPE CHARLES STARTING 10AM WED. WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL THEN. THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF
SUB-5FT SEAS LATE TONIGHT, BUT SEAS LOOK TO QUICKLY BUILD AGAIN BY
EARLY WED MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY THURS,
THOUGH REMAINING BREEZY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-065>069-079>090-092-093-095>100-509>518-520-
523>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJB/LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB/MAM
MARINE...AC
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