316
FXUS61 KAKQ 101050
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
650 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY.
2) SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
TODAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THAT HAVE A
MARGINAL CHANCE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY (IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S), BUT THE DEW POINTS
WILL BE LOWER TODAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, WHICH WILL CAUSE
LESS INSTABILITY (~500 J/KG MLCAPE). ADDITIONALLY, WIND SHEAR IS
LIMITED. ISOLATED STORMS MAY STILL BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN
THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SPC MAINTAINS
CENTRAL VA AND THE EASTERN SHORE IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY. WITH THE LOWER DEW POINTS TODAY, HEAT
INDICES WILL BE LOWER IN THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AND NEAR
100F ALONG THE COAST.
SATURDAY, THE FORCING LOOKS TO BE BETTER AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. THE STRONGER FORCING MAY PROVIDE A HIGHER COVERAGE
OF STORMS THAN TODAY, WITH SCATTERED STORMS MOVING FROM THE NW TO SE
EXPECTED. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
SATURDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM A
SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND ~2.00" PWAT ARE THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH ANY STORM. SPC MAINTAINS THE ENTIRE FA IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH SIMILAR
APPARENT TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BEFORE WARMER TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY RETURNS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, PUSHING SOUTHWARDS, LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
CONDITIONS. THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY AND MID TO
UPPER 80S ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DEW POINTS WILL DROP INTO THE 60S
FROM A DRIER AIRMASS, AND COMBINED WITH THE "COOLER" TEMPERATURES,
THESE DAYS WILL FEEL QUITE PLEASANT. LATER IN THE WEEK, UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, POTENTIALLY
ALLOWING TEMPERATURE TO REBOUND TO THE 90S. RAIN CHANCES ARE QUITE
LOW WITH THE DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE 12Z/10 TAFS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TODAY, WITH CU DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT (~5KT) AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING W OR W/SW AROUND 5-
10 KT THIS MORNING. VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
IMPACT THE PIEDMONT TODAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO RIC AND SBY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK: LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH A HIGHER CHANCE OF MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY.
ANY SHOWER OR STORM COULD BE DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS. TRENDING
DRIER AND VFR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES...
- BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. W-SW WINDS
TURN SSE THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE VEERING BACK OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
- THAT FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN.
- BEHIND THE FRONT, ELEVATED ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND EARLY THIS MORNING. SSW
WINDS ~10 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY AS OF THIS WRITING,
WITH W WINDS 10 KT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. THIS
SAME GENERAL PATTERN HOLDS THIS MORNING, UNTIL THE AFTERNOON
SEABREEZE TURNS LIGHT WINDS TO THE S/SSE ~5-10 KT, BECOMING SW
ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
DROPS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, LIKELY
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. WINDS TO BECOME
NNW POST- FRONTAL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ELEVATED ONSHORE (E-NE) FLOW FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE. THE RESULTING E-NE WIND WAVE SHOULD ALSO ALLOW SEAS
TO BUILD, APPROACHING TO 4-5 FT DURING THIS SAME SUNDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY MONDAY PERIOD, 3-4 FT INTO THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
ACCORDINGLY, A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA- LEVEL WINDS AND WAVES/SEAS
IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATER
MONDAY AND MON NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS SOUTH
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
ONSHORE FLOW BUILDING RIP CURRENT RISK TO MODERATE FOR SUNDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KMC
AVIATION...KMC/RHR
MARINE...MAM
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