996
FXUS61 KAKQ 161738
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1238 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A NOTICEABLE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND BEGINS TODAY, WITH
RELATIVELY MILDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1100 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY ALLOWING FOR A
LIGHT W-SW FLOW (5 TO 10 MPH) AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 40 F LATE THIS MORNING,
THOUGH IT IS A BIT COOLER ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE THERE
STILL IS SOME SNOW COVER. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE S/SW TO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS FAR NE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (STILL RUNNING 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL).
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S
(POTENTIALLY LOWER 20S INTERIOR MD EASTERN SHORE) WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 215 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA.
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GET
SUPPRESSED TO THE S/SE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY
SHIFTS TO THE SW. THE HIGH THEN EXPANDS AND PUSHES WELL OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY. MEANWHILE, STRONG LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH LATE THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT, DRAGGING
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. DEEP LAYERED S-SW FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT
BY THURSDAY, WITH PWS BRIEFLY INCREASING TO 1-1.4" (200% OF NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY
AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS IS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AM ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LATEST MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAVE (NOTABLY) TRENDED HIGHER
WITH QPF FOR THIS EVENT. THE 00Z GEFS AVERAGES 0.4" TO 0.6" QPF
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE 00Z EPS 0.6" TO 0.8"
COMPARED TO EARLIER RUNS WHICH WERE ROUGHLY HALF OF THESE AMOUNTS.
THUS, THE QPF FORECAST WILL LIKELY TO TREND HIGHER WITH FUTURE
UPDATES. FINALLY, EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT CURRENTLY MENTIONED IN
FORECAST, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY AM. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES RETURNING DURING
THE AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES MODERATE FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY STARTING WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE NON-DIURNAL
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY THURSDAY
EVENING/NIGHT.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 215 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE ON SAT, THEN POTENTIALLY MILD ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT. A BIT CHILLIER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F. BRIEFLY MILDER WX IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT (WHICH APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AT THIS TIME). TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
MONDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT. NO BIG STORM SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM EST TUESDAY...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SKC THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME S-SW 5-10 KT TONIGHT
AND 10-15 KT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, IS THURSDAY NIGHT- FRIDAY AM DUE TO
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 215 AM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
THROUGH 7 AM THIS MORNING.
- SW WINDS BECOME ELEVATED LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT.
- A PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS IS EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. LOW-END
GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF AND SOUTHEAST. THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MOVE E TODAY
INTO WED BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE ON WED. WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WERE SW 10-20 KT ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS WITH
LIGHTER WINDS ACROSS THE UPPER RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND.
WHILE MARGINAL, WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SCAS ACROSS THE CHES
BAY UNTIL 7 AM. WINDS BECOME W LATER THIS MORNING, DIMINISHING
TO AROUND 5 KT THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA. WINDS BECOME S LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING SW 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN A STRONG LOW WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES IN
CANADA AND THE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SW
WINDS COULD INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT INTO WED
AFTERNOON WITH MARGINAL SCAS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW DUE TO WEAK WAA OVER COOL WATER TEMPS AND THE RELATIVE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT GIVEN THE LARGE SPATIAL DISTANCE BETWEEN THE
SURFACE LOW AND HIGH. AS SUCH, HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
SCAS FOR NOW WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT
ARE POSSIBLE BUT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS LESS LIKELY. SIMILARLY, A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT WITH SEAS POTENTIALLY 4-5 FT ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW
TO ISSUE SCAS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS DIMINISH WED AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING NE 5-10 KT WED NIGHT
BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. WINDS BECOME SE THU AS THE FRONT LIFTS
BACK N AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A STRONG AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC THU, PUSHING A
STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI.
ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF EITHER HIGH-END SCA OR LOW-
END GALE CONDITIONS THU NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT
GUSTS WERE 40-70% ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER
AND 30-50% ACROSS THE UPPER BAY THU NIGHT WITH THE S SURGE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND AROUND 20-30% FOR THE NW SURGE LATE FRI BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. WHILE DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW S WINDS INCREASING
TO NEAR 30 KT THU NIGHT, THE COOL WATER TEMPS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION TO FORM WHICH OFTEN LEADS TO WINDS UNDERPERFORMING
AS THEY TEND TO MIX LESS THAN WHAT DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW. AS
SUCH, IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER GALE CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED
AHEAD OF THE FRONT (LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE). WHILE WIND PROBS ARE
TECHNICALLY LOWER FOR THE NW SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT, GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE LOW (POTENTIALLY <980MB) AND FAVORABLE MIXING WITH
CAA OVER THE LOCAL WATERS (AS OPPOSED TO WAA), CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE IN GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRI INTO FRI
EVENING. FOR NOW, HAVE 34 KT GUSTS CONFINED TO THE N COASTAL WATERS
FOR BOTH THE S SURGE AND NW SURGE. GALE WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED IN FUTURE UPDATES AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT. WINDS
DIMINISH LATER FRI NIGHT AS CAA WANES. ANOTHER PERIOD OF MARGINAL
SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT IS POSSIBLE LATE SAT INTO
EARLY SUN.
WAVES AND SEAS WERE 2-3 FT (LOCALLY 3-4 FT ACROSS THE NC COASTAL
WATERS) EARLY THIS MORNING. WAVES AND SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 4-5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N
COASTAL WATERS WED AFTERNOON, SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THU.
SEAS BUILD TO 5-8 FT THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING FRI NIGHT
DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS. MEANWHILE, WAVES BUILD TO 3-5 FT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ650-652.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/ERI
NEAR TERM...AJB/SW
SHORT TERM...AJB/ERI
LONG TERM...AJB/ERI
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...RMM
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