020
FXUS61 KAKQ 071742
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1242 PM EST SAT FEB 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE EXTREME COLD WATCH HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AND
NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS MORNING. WINDY AND
DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AREA-WIDE. HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG WITH EXTREME COLD WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES.
2) BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
3) AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS BY MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANGES INCREASING.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 645 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION THIS
MORNING. WINDY AND DANGEROUSLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AREA-WIDE. HIGH WIND WARNINGS
AND WIND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG WITH EXTREME COLD
WARNINGS AND COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT BEGINNING
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NW. THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS SE
VA SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT 30 MIN OR SO. THE COLD
FRONT ITSELF IS A BIT DELAYED COMPARED TO MODEL GUIDANCE. AS
SUCH, TEMPS ARE WARMER THAN MODELED IN THE MID-UPPER 20S NW TO
THE LOWER 30S SE. STRONG CAA RAMPS UP LATER THIS MORNING BEHIND
THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, A DEEPENING SHORT WAVE
CREATES A STRONGLY NEGATIVE 500MB ANOMALY OFFSHORE. THIS WILL
ALLOW A SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES
FARTHER OFFSHORE TODAY. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW AT 980MB
(OR LOWER) BY 00Z SUN. AT THE SAME TIME, A STRONG (~1034MB)
HIGH BUILDS IN FROM CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID-ATLANTIC
TODAY INTO SUN. AS SUCH, RAPID PRESSURE RISES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATE
THAT STRONG WINDS WILL BE ABLE MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING WITH 50-55+ KT OF NW FLOW AT 925MB
(CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN SHORE). AS SUCH, EXPECT NW WINDS TO
QUICKLY INCREASE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING, REMAINING WINDY THROUGH THE DAY. NW WINDS INCREASE TO
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45-50 MPH INLAND (WHERE WIND
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT) WITH GUSTS UP TO 55-60 MPH POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE, VIRGINIA BEACH, PORTSMOUTH, AND
NORFOLK (WHERE HIGH WIND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT). WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT BUT REMAIN BREEZY
ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE THROUGH SUN.
GIVEN THE STRONG WINDS AND CAA, VERY COLD TEMPS MAKE A RETURN TO THE
LOCAL AREA WITH HIGHS TODAY BELOW FREEZING FOR NEARLY ALL OF THE
LOCAL AREA (LOWER 20S NE TO LOWER 30S SW). WILL NOTE THAT THE "TRUE"
HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY HAS ALREADY BEEN REACHED AT MIDNIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. VERY COLD LOWS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS WELL WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS. GIVEN THE WINDY CONDITIONS,
WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON NE OF I-64 AND IN THE TEENS SOUTH. AS SUCH, COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA (APART FROM THE FAR
SW PIEDMONT) FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 10 AM ON SUN. EVEN
COLDER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WHERE WIND
CHILLS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH ABOVE 0F DURING THE AFTERNOON! AS
TEMPS DROP TONIGHT, WIND CHILLS DROP TO 5-10 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE, 0 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, AND 0 TO 5F FARTHER INLAND. AS SUCH,
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SHORE
FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH MID MORNING SUN. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIND CHILLS BELOW 0F ACROSS PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC
NEAR/ALONG THE COAST, HAVE ALSO UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING BEGINNING AT 10 PM THIS EVENING AND LASTING INTO SUN
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY, IT'S POSSIBLE THAT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN NECK REACH WIND CHILLS OF -5F SAT NIGHT, HOWEVER THE
LATEST FORECAST KEEPS WIND CHILLS ABOVE -5F. AS SUCH, WILL KEEP
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HERE INSTEAD OF EXTREME COLD WARNINGS.
THE COLD TEMPS LINGER THROUGH SUN WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S NE TO LOWER
30S SW ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER, GIVEN LIGHTER WINDS THAN SAT, EXPECT
WIND CHILLS TO REMAIN ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING
THE DAY FOR MOST. HOWEVER, ONCE THE EXTREME COLD WARNING ENDS FOR
THE EASTERN SHORE, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY COULD
TAKE IT'S PLACE MID MORNING SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT GIVEN VERY
COLD WIND CHILLS ONLY WARMING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS SUN AFTERNOON
BEFORE DROPPING TO AROUND 0F SUN NIGHT. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF SE VA/NE NC SUN NIGHT AS
WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BRIEFLY MILDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTER ANOTHER VERY COLD WEEKEND, AND WHAT HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT
COLD STRETCH, THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FINALLY APPEARS TO SHOW A BIT
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH FROM THE GULF INTO THE SE
CONUS TUE INTO WED. TEMPS WARM INTO THE 40S NE TO UPPER 50S SW TUE
AND UPPER 40S NE TO LOW-MID 60S SW WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING OF ANY REMAINING SNOW/ICE PACK. HOWEVER, THIS
WARMUP IS BRIEF WITH A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THU.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPS BY MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANGES INCREASING.
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST DETAILS DECREASES AS WE HEAD INTO THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL FOR A BIT
OF AN UNSETTLED PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH MULTIPLE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THE FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES WED AS A SHORTWAVE IS
MODELED TO MOVE BENEATH THE RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THE LOCAL AREA MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH FOR MUCH PRECIP, HOWEVER, LIGHT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING DETAILS AND PRECIP TYPES AT THIS RANGE
WITH A LARGE SPREAD OF POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE POSITIONS ON ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLES DO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR 0.25-0.5"+ OF
PRECIP.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1240 PM EST SATURDAY...
MOSTLY A WIND FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AS ANY REMAINING
CLOUDS HAVE TRANSLATED OFFSHORE. VERY GUSTY ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY NNW 25-30 KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS 40-45 KT. SOME MODEST IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING
AND TOMORROW AM BUT REMAINING QUITE BREEZY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED SUNDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST AND THE EASTERN SHORE. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE AS
WINDY ON SUNDAY, GUSTS OF 20-25 KT ARE STILL EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE. DRY/VFR, WITH MUCH LESS WIND
MON-TUE.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG GALE TO LOW-END STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
- A STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
CHESAPEAKE BAY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A GALE WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FOR THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC
BORDER AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES ARE
IN EFFECT FOR THE RIVERS AND NC COASTAL WATERS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN VA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE WIND IS WNW 10-15KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS OF 3-4FT, AND 2-
3FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SNOW SHOWERS,
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBY TO LESS THEN 1NM. STRONG CAA AND
SHARP PRESSURE RISES OF 4-6MB/3HR DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
THIS MORNING. STEADY AND STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY,
BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF 5-6MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES ARRIVE LATE AFTN
AND EVENING. 950/925MB WIND INCREASES AND THEN AVERAGES AROUND 45-
50KT MUCH OF TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND EVEN REACHES 50-55KT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND 21-00Z/4-7 PM LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING. ALL THIS OCCURS WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AS
925MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 TO -18C OVERSPREAD SSTS OF 2-5C. THIS WILL
SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT OVER THE CHES. BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 48KT GUSTS ARE GENERALLY 60-80% FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER AND 30-40% FOR THE CHES. BAY
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, A TOUCH LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.
HOWEVER, 00Z/07 EPS PROBS FOR 50KT GUSTS ARE STILL 80-100% FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC BORDER, AND ~70-100% FOR THE CHES. BAY
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. OVERALL, THE BEST PERIODS FOR ~50KT
WIND GUSTS WILL BE BEHIND THE INITIAL SURGE THIS MORNING, AND THEN
WITH THE SECONDARY SURGE THIS AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN THIS, STORM
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS AND THE CHES. BAY.
ELSEWHERE, STRONG GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING EARLY THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AND GALE WARNINGS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINING MARINE ZONES. A PERIOD OF GALE
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR THE CHES. BAY AND OCEAN LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ONCE THE STORM THREAT ENDS.
GIVEN THE STRONG WIND AND COLD TEMPERATURES, MODERATE TO HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IS ALSO LIKELY TODAY AND SUNDAY. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF THE VA/NC
BORDER AND CHES. BAY. WHILE THE WARNING ENDS ON SUNDAY MORNING,
LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT
ELSEWHERE, EXCEPT THE CURRITUCK SOUND, WHICH HAS LIMITED ICE FREE
WATER ON THE SHORELINE ALONG WITH LIMITED NAVIGATION DUE TO ICE AND
PERSISTENT LOW WATER. SEAS BUILD TO 6-11FT WITH 5-8FT WAVES IN THE
CHES. BAY.
OVERALL, GRADUALLY IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR MDZ021>025.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
NC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NCZ012>014-
030-031.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>017-
030>032-102.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ015>017-032-102.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR NCZ015>017-032-102.
VA...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ095-
098>100.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR VAZ048-061-
062-064-067>069-075>078-080>083-085-087-088-092-509>522.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-060>062-
064>069-075>090-092-093-096-097-509>525.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ084-
086-089-090-093-095>098-523>525.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY FOR VAZ084-086-089-090-093-095>098-523>525.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634-650-652-
654-656-658.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654-656.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ633.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>638-
658.
DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJZ/NB
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