661  
FXUS61 KAKQ 171836  
AFDAKQ  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA  
236 PM EDT WED SEP 17 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA TODAY BEFORE MOVING  
OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED BY LATE WEEK  
BEFORE A RETURN TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS  
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 1000 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA TODAY BRINGING  
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN, PRIMARILY INLAND.  
 
MORNING WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE IS NOW  
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN NECK PROGGED TO MOVE FURTHER WEST  
TODAY BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
AS THE LOW SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND, THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
CONTINUES, PRIMARILY FOR THE INLAND AREA NORTH OF I-64 AND WEST  
OF I-95 THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE HEAVY RAIN IS  
OVER, LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH  
ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS UP TO 1.5" IS POSSIBLE. THE LOW  
PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH RAIN CHANCES  
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS ONLY A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN COOL  
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER  
60S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
 
 
AS OF 250 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THE COASTAL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND  
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA.  
 
BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE LOW PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE  
ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A FEW  
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ON THE EASTERN SHORE IN THE  
MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE DRY. SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO  
EAST AS THE LOW MOVES OFFSHORE, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO  
WARM BACK UP WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT  
LOWS ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN  
TO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BRINGING CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES  
IN THE MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
AS OF 250 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- A FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING  
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.  
 
- MOISTURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE  
AREA.  
 
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE  
REGION SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE  
AREA, BUT ISN'T STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS.  
A GRADIENT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY IS EXPECTED BASED ON THE  
FRONT BUT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN SHORE WILL BE COOLEST IN  
THE MID 70S WITH THE REST OF THE FA IN THE LOWER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS  
WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS IN THE LOWER 60S. SUNDAY WILL  
BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES AGAINST THE  
APPALACHIA MOUNTAINS AND THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE AREA.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
AS OF 152 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
A MIX OF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS THE  
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE AREA  
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRIES TO MOVE AWAY IT CONTINUES TO BRING  
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AND LOWER CIGS. RIC THIS AFTERNOON  
CONTINUES TO REMAIN THE ONLY TERMINAL WITH IFR CONDITIONS AS THE  
LIGHT RAIN/ DRIZZLE MOVE OUT OF THE PIEDMONT AND OVER THE  
TERMINAL. THESE LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL BRING A BRIEF  
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE LIGHTENED AS  
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS DECREASED. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE  
BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KT. THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT  
IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS ALL  
TERMINALS WITH REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY AND LOWER CIGS. CIGS ARE  
EXPECTED TO DROP TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS RIC, PHF, AND ORF.  
WHILE ACROSS SBY AND ECG THEY WILL REMAIN IFR. WITH THE  
DRIZZLE/PATCHY FOG THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT RECENT GUIDANCE HAS  
VISIBILITIES REMAINING MVFR WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SOME IFR  
VISIBILITY POSSIBLE NEAR RIC. THESE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK: THE COASTAL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE AREA  
TONIGHT, THEN MOVING OFFSHORE THURSDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY  
FROM THE AREA, FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE  
THURSDAY WITH DRY AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
AS OF 235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
KEY MESSAGES:  
 
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ELEVATED SEAS ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM  
THIS EVENING NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES.  
 
- LIGHTER WINDS AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA  
YESTERDAY HAS SPUN DOWN AND WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY OVER  
CENTRAL/EASTERN VA TODAY. WITH THE LOW CENTER W OF THE WATERS, THE  
WIND DIRECTION IS GENERALLY S-SE AND SPEEDS ARE ONLY AROUND 10 KT.  
EARLIER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WERE ALLOWED TO  
EXPIRE GIVEN THE REDUCTION IN WINDS. SEAS HAVE ALSO FALLEN, BUT  
REMAIN 4-6 FT N OF CAPE CHARLES IN THE OCEAN. THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT  
ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM THIS EVENING FOR THESE AREAS  
AS SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE LOW OPENS UP  
INTO A TROUGH AND SLOWLY DRIFTS NE OF THE AREA TONIGHT, ALLOWING  
WINDS TO BECOME NW 5-10 KT. SIMILAR WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO  
EARLY FRIDAY. WEAK FLOW THEN PREVAILS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH  
SEA BREEZES DOMINATING THE WIND DIRECTION IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF THE REGION (ACROSS SE CANADA INTO NEW  
ENGLAND) THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH  
THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH A N-NE WIND SURGE SPREADING ACROSS  
THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT ARE GENERALLY  
EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF 15-20 KT WINDS (WITH HIGHER  
GUSTS) ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MARGINAL SCAS ARE POSSIBLE,  
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.  
THIS SHOULD ALSO BRING ANOTHER INCREASE IN THE SEAS, WITH 4-5 FT  
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ONSHORE FLOW AND ELEVATED SEAS THEN PERSISTS  
INTO NEXT WEEK.  
 
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RIP RISK CONTINUES AT ALL BEACHES TODAY,  
BECOMING MODERATE EVERYWHERE THURSDAY. A LOW RISK IS EXPECTED BY  
FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
AS OF 235 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...  
 
WATER LEVELS AND TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY  
WITH THE DECREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. HOWEVER, NUISANCE TO PERHAPS  
LOW-END MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TIDAL RAPPAHANNOCK  
AND POTOMAC RIVERS, AS WELL AS THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN  
SHORE (NEAR BISHOP'S HEAD AND CRISFIELD). WITH ALL GAUGES BELOW  
MINOR, FEEL NO NEED TO ISSUE AN COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS  
TIME. NUISANCE FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THESE AREAS  
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, THOUGH WATER LEVELS WILL INCH DOWN WITH EACH  
CYCLE.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:  
 
9/16 9/17  
RIC 65/1959 61/2011  
ORF 64/1963 65/1986  
SBY 59/1963 63/1924  
ECG 66/1963 65/2011  
 

 
   
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
MD...NONE.  
NC...NONE.  
VA...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-  
652-654.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...AJB/KMC  
NEAR TERM...HET/KMC  
SHORT TERM...KMC  
LONG TERM...KMC/RHR  
AVIATION...HET/KMC  
MARINE...SW  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
CLIMATE...  
 
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