595
FXUS61 KAKQ 100535
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
135 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HURRICANE ISAIAS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MAJOR, CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MOUTH OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AS WELL AS THE COASTAL WATERS FOR LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN WIDESPREAD RAIN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IN A TORNADO THREAT LATE
SUNDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAS INCREASED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVE FARTHER INLAND.
2) A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.
3) NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
TIDE CYCLE SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF HAMPTON ROADS, THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS MOVE FARTHER INLAND.
HURRICANE ISAIAS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A MAJOR (CATEGORY 3) HURRICANE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE FAR WESTERN FL PANHANDLE NEAR THE FL/GA BORDER TONIGHT BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH AL SAT. ISAIAS IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IT MOVES NE
ACROSS TN TOWARDS THE KY/OH/WV BORDER. AS THE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION OCCURS, THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA, LIKELY PROVIDING A BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR MOST AREAS.
AHEAD OF THE RAIN, CLOUDS AHEAD OF ISAIAS HAVE ALREADY MOVED OVER
THE LOCAL AREA, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUN. HOWEVER, RAIN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE SAT OR
SAT NIGHT GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE AREA TODAY WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NE THROUGH SUN. AS IT DOES
SO, A CAD SETUP WILL DEVELOP WITH A WARM FRONT INITIALLY ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS SUN MORNING WHICH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BE TOO STABLE TO
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS OR SEVERE WEATHER. INSTEAD, WIDESPREAD LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN WILL SPREAD NORTH LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO SAT NIGHT
WITH POPS INCREASING TO 70-100% LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING.
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DAY SAT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.
STRATIFORM RAIN EARLY SUN MORNING GRADUALLY BECOMES MORE SHOWERY BY
LATE MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. WHILE IT'S STILL EARLY FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SPECIFICS, MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A LULL IN THE PRECIP SUN
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WITH A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A PSEUDO COLD FRONT LATE SUN
AFTERNOON INTO SUN EVENING. AS SUCH, SUN MAY NOT BE A COMPLETE
WASHOUT. ADDITIONALLY, IF THERE IS LULL IN PRECIP SUN AFTERNOON AND
DESTABILIZATION IS ABLE TO OCCUR, A CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK COULD
DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. THE 12KM NAM AND RRFS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR A BROKEN BAND OF SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PIEDMONT LATE SUN AFTERNOON, SPREADING EAST INTO EARLY SUN NIGHT. IF
SUPERCELLS DO DEVELOP, THE MAIN RISK WOULD BE FOR A BRIEF TORNADO.
HOWEVER, STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, THE GREATEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE WITH THIS LATE ROUND OF CONVECTION,
HOWEVER, A LOW-END TORNADO THREAT ALSO EXISTS ALONG THE WARM FRONT
AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA GIVEN THE INCREASED SRH ALONG THE
FRONT. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL, SPC HAS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1/5)
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. HOWEVER, THIS MAY NEED
TO BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER. FOR INSTANCE, THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT
MAY HOLD ON TO THE CAD LONGER THAN MODELS SHOW, WHICH WOULD LIMIT
ANY DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL THERE. OTHERWISE, THE MAIN
LIMITING FACTORS FOR THE LATE DAY SEVERE RISK ARE THAT SURFACE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS BACKED (S/SSE VERSUS SE/E) BEHIND
THE FRONT, DESTABILIZATION MAY BE HINDERED BY WIDESPREAD RAIN,
AND THE TIMING IS FAVORED TO BE LATE IN THE DAY (LIKELY AFTER
SUNSET FOR MOST OF THE AREA). NEVERTHELESS, TROPICAL REMNANTS
HAVE A WELL-DOCUMENTED HISTORY OF PRODUCING TORNADOES, SO THE
THREAT WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
OUTSIDE OF THE SEVERE RISK, HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE TROPICAL MOISTURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2" FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IS ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC WHERE A
LONGER DURATION IN THE WARM SECTOR IS POSSIBLE. HERE, A CORRIDOR
OF 2-3" WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3-4"+ ARE POSSIBLE. FARTHER
INLAND, THE LINGERING CAD THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENT SHOULD KEEP
RAIN RATES MORE LIMITED. ADDITIONALLY, QUITE A BIT OF MODEL
GUIDANCE (INCLUDING THE EPS) SHOWS A SWATH OF LOCALIZED MINIMUM
RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL VA WITH RAINFALL
TOTALS CLOSER TO 1" FOR THE EVENT. AS SUCH, WHILE THERE IS A
MARGINAL ERO (EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK) ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC
SAT (FOR THE SAT NIGHT RAIN) AND A MARGINAL ERO ALL THE WAY TO
THE I-95 CORRIDOR SUN, CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ACROSS SE VA/NE NC
(INCLUDING THE HAMPTON ROADS REGION). SHOWERS TAPER OFF FROM W
TO E SUN NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MON.
OTHERWISE, E WINDS OF 5-10 MPH INLAND AND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 MPH ALONG THE COAST SAT INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 MPH INLAND AND 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH ALONG THE
COAST LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE
ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS BECOME SSE/SE AND REMAIN BREEZY (ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST) SUN AFTERNOON. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
MID-UPPER 70S FOR MOST WITH HIGHS AROUND 80F POSSIBLE ACROSS SE
VA/NE NC. HIGHS DROP TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND LOW-MID 70S ELSEWHERE SAT AND UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F
ACROSS THE FAR NW AND UPPER 70S SE SUN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE WEEK.
ALOFT, A RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS GRADUALLY BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS CENTERED ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE A
SECOND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE
WEEK. AS SUCH, A WARMUP IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
MOST MON (LOW-MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE)
AND LOWER 80S FOR MOST TUE (UPPER 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE).
TEMPS GRADUALLY COOL LATE IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S WED AND
MID 60S NE TO LOWER 70S SW THU. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FROM MON-THU. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3..NUISANCE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF HAMPTON ROADS, THE WESTERN
SHORE OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE.
A RAPID RISE IN WATER LEVELS IS EXPECTED WITH THE SUNDAY HIGH
TIDE CYCLE, OCCURRING MAINLY IN THE MORNING FOR THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND DURING THE AFTERNOON FARTHER
NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE PENINSULA/NORTHERN NECK AND LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THE LOWER MARYLAND EASTERN
SHORE BAY ZONES. GIVEN THE E-SE WIND DIRECTION, THE HIGHEST
IMPACTS, POTENTIALLY APPROACHING MODERATE FLOOD LOCALLY WOULD
BE THE NORTHERN NECK ALONG THE TIDAL POTOMAC. THIS SHOULD BE
JUST ONE TIDE CYCLE WITH THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
AND WINDS BECOMING S-SW LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE BULK OF THE 06Z/10 TAF PERIOD.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WELL
OUT AHEAD OF HURRICANE ISAIAS WHICH MADE LANDFALL ON THE FL
PANHANDLE LATE LAST EVENING. EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KT TODAY, BECOMING GUSTY AT ORF AND ECG DURING THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER LATER
IN THE PERIOD, BECOMING MVFR EVERYWHERE BUT SBY AFTER 00Z
TONIGHT. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE ISAIAS MOVES
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD AS WELL, BUT HEAVIER RATES THAT
COULD IMPACT VSBY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z SUN.
OUTLOOK: WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH SAT NIGHT INTO SUN ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
ISAIAS. DEGRADED VIS AND CIGS ARE LIKELY. ADDITIONALLY, BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN WITH E
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT INLAND AND
15-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS BECOME
SE SUN AFTERNOON BEHIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
- A SHORT PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE REMNANTS
OF ISAIAS TRACK THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT N TO E WINDS PREVAILING. HURRICANE
ISAIAS IS A MAJOR HURRICANE AS OF THE 2 PM CDT UPDATE AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE FL PANHANDLE TONIGHT. WHILE
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED LOCALLY, THE INTERACTION OF
THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
LEAD TO INCREASED E-SE FLOW ON SATURDAY, WITH LOW-END SCA
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND SOUTHERN VA/NE NC
WATERS. THE 12Z GUIDANCE SUITE IS MIXED COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT'S
00Z RUNS, BUT THE PATTERN WITH A STRONG SFC HIGH (>1030 MB) IN A
FAVORABLE LOCATION (OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST) SUPPORTS ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE FOR 35 KT+ GUSTS TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR THE
OCEAN AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY ON SUNDAY MORNING,
TRANSLATING NORTH INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE WINDS SHIFT
TO THE S-SE AND DIMINISH. SCA HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES FOR E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ~30
KT. THIS IS STILL NOT EXPECTED TO BE A LONG DURATION EVENT, WITH
GALE FORCE GUSTS GENERALLY ONLY LASTING 3-6 HOURS AT ANY ONE
LOCATION. THE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY BY
SUNDAY EVENING. WAVES IN THE BAY BUILD TO 3-5 FT SUNDAY (BUT UP
TO 5-7 FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY), BEFORE RELAXING TO 2-3 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AM. SEAS OFFSHORE INCREASE TO 6-9 FT
NEARSHORE AND 7-11 FT IN THE 20-60 NM ZONES. 5+ FT SEAS AND SCA
HEADLINES WILL LIKELY LINGER WELL INTO MONDAY FOR THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY
BE NEEDED SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN SHORE, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH SO WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW. A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH A
STRONGER FRONT EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. DECENT COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONT COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS MIDWEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ633-639.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ634.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ650-652-680-682.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ654-656-684-686.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ658.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ANZ658-
688.
DISCUSSION...RMM
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...LKB/RHR
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