882
FXUS61 KAKQ 180043
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
843 PM EDT SAT APR 17 2021
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TONIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY,
WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVING ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
AS OF 830 PM EDT SATURDAY...
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS SFC LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING WITH A NEARLY FLAT/ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A WEAK SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE OFFSHORE SYSTEM
INTO THE LOCAL AREA. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY AND TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR MOST OF THE CWA WITH
SOME LOCALLY COOLER READINGS NEAR THE COAST ON THE EASTERN SHORE WITH
A LIGHT SE FLOW. SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION, GENERALLY AMOUNTING TO NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES. HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
PERHAPS SEEING A FEW SHOWERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING UP TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF QPF THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS WILL
BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN VA N OF I-64. WILL HAVE POPS TO
30-40% IN THIS AREA THROUGH 06Z, AND GENERALLY ONLY 20% OR LESS
ELSEWHERE WHERE PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE A TRACE OR LESS.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT FROM WNW TO
ESE AFTER 06Z-09Z. TEMPERATURES MAY DROP OFF SEVERAL DEGREES
TOWARDS SUNRISE (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT). FORECAST LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 40S IN THE PIEDMONT, WITH MAINLY
MID 40S TO AROUND 50F OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...
FIRST SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFFSHORE TO BEGIN THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SYSTEM BRINGING A SHORT-LIVED PERIOD OF
CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING. STILL ANTICIPATE CLOUD
THICKENING/LOWERING ALL OVER AGAIN SUN AFTN AND NIGHT, AS NEXT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES RIGHT NOW
APPEAR TO BE AFTER SUNSET SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A THIRD PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY OVER HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC, AS THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP A WEAK SFC WAVE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. HOWEVER, MAJORITY
OF CAMS AND THE EPS ARE QUITE A BIT LOWER WITH QPF. AND HAVE
ACCORDINGLY MAINTAINED POPS NO HIGHER THAN 40% IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE TIME BEING. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION, AHEAD OF
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR MIDWEEK.
HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT MILDER ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND TO NEAR 50 DEGREES
ALONG THE COAST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY ...
POTENT MID-UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SFC COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE
SFC LOW AND BEST LIFT/DYNAMICS TO OUR NORTH, STILL ENOUGH IN THE
WAY OF INSTABILITY TO WARRANT T-STORM MENTION ALONG AND EAST OF
95 LATE WED AFTN AND EVENING. PRESSURE FALLS BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING A COOL NIGHT WED NIGHT, AFTER HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S. BL SHOULD REMAIN WELL-MIXED,
BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES FOR INLAND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
POTENTIALLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND. THURSDAY
WILL BE DRY, BUT COOL AND BREEZY. HIGHS THURSDAY ARE GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL NIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE ISSUES WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND
SKY CLEARING OUT. REMAINING DRY FRIDAY WITH SFC HIGH PUSHING
OFFSHORE. RESULTANT RETURN FLOW ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE
SLIGHTLY SOME, BUT STILL BELOW AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM LIFTING FROM THE MID SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. KEPT
POPS LOW (20-30%) AT THIS TIME RANGE.
AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING DESPITE
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A FEW SPRINKLES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. CIGS ARE MAINLY RANGING BETWEEN 5-10K FT AND ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO LOWER MUCH MORE THAN THIS OVERNIGHT. WINDS ARE
FAIRLY LIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH AT RIC/SBY WHERE THE CHANCE FOR
RAIN IS LIGHTLY HIGHER BUT STILL FAIRLY MINIMAL. SKY GRADUALLY
CLEARS FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 06-12Z SUN MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM BRINGING CHANCES FOR ISO-WIDELY SCT SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THEN MAINLY DRY FROM MON
AFTN THROUGH WED MORNING. SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION LATER WED AND WED
NIGHT.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE AREA TODAY. A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS 5-10 KTS. WAVES IN THE BAY
AROUND A FOOT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. SEVERAL WEAK FRONTS/DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ONE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT, ANOTHER ONE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THEN A SHORTWAVE
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTIONS OVER THE AREA WATERS, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE COAST AND WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS. WAVES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY REMAIN AROUND A FOOT AND SEAS 2-3 FT. STRONG
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH SCA
WINDS/SEAS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...AJB/MAM
LONG TERM...AJB/MAM
AVIATION...LKB/MAM
MARINE...CMF
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