925
FXUS61 KAKQ 090158
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
958 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
FROM SMITH POINT TO LITTLE CREEK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
2) SEASONABLE TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
RAIN AND POTENTIAL STORMS WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 955 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH CONTINUED DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED. NOT
AS COOL OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WELL
INLAND, LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE WINDS BECOME SSW OR
SW. MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WEAK DISTURBANCES INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCE POPS (40% OR
LESS) DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL FAVOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. SOME INSTABILITY IS NOTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS SO A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE MD EASTERN SHORE WHERE CAM GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES. SUNDAY LOOKS TO STAY DRY
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE MID 80S. MOISTURE INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUMBLE
BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S (COOLEST N/WARMEST S) ON MONDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY WITH THIS WAVE
SO NOT EXPECTING TO HAVE ANY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SEASONABLE TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL STORMS WEDNESDAY/EARLY THURSDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHING WEDNESDAY AND CROSSING THE REGION THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS SURFACE LOW
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, KEEPING THE LOCAL AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECENT OVERLAP OF ENHANCED WINDS
ALOFT AND SOME INSTABILITY, SO A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE THIS PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 70S WITH LOW IN THE
40S AND 50S THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 730 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE
REGION IS RESULTING IN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME SSE TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY, AS THE
HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN FROM THE S-SW ON SATURDAY,
MAINLY 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT.
OUTLOOK: A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL BRING A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH BEST CHANCES MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 710 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SCAS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY NORTH OF LITTLE CREEK THIS
EVENING-TONIGHT AND LOW-END/MARGINAL SCAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN OCEAN.
- PRIMARILY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND,
THOUGH ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT/SAT.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH
INCREASING N WINDS, AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE,
WITH AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS. SE WINDS HAVE ALREADY INCREASED TO 15-20 KT
ACROSS THE LOWER BAY WITH S WINDS OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO AROUND
25 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO TURN TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. GIVEN LATE AFTERNOON
OBS REFLECTING THE HIGHER MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH RESPECT TO WIND
SPEED, AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
15-20 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CHES
BAY, HAVE EXPANDED THE SCAS TO INCLUDE THE LOWER CHES BAY
(APART FROM THE MOUTH OF THE BAY). ADDITIONALLY, HAVE EXTENDED
THE SCAS FOR THE MIDDLE BAY THROUGH 6 AM SAT. STILL, BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING WILL BE POOR OVER THE WATERS GIVEN THE WAA REGIME
AND THERE WILL BE A DIFFERENCE IN WIND SPEEDS IN ELEVATED
SENSORS VS. LOWER LEVEL SITES.
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
HAVE BEEN NOTED MAINLY AT OCEAN CITY. HOWEVER, THE DELAWARE BAY
BUOY OFFSHORE HAS NOT YET SEEN GUSTS TO 25 KT AND THE LIMITED
BUOY DATA (AND MODEL GUIDANCE) DOESN'T SUPPORT 5 FT SEAS. AS
SUCH, HAVE HELD OFF ON SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AT THIS TIME.
NEVERTHELESS, THE CONTINUED, ELEVATED SOUTHERLY FLOW COULD
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO ~5FT SEAS OFF THE NORTHERN OCEAN ZONES LATER
SATURDAY, WITH A POTENTIAL SCA POSSIBLE THERE. MOSTLY BENIGN
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS. THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT EVENT ARRIVES MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY, AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS WHILE TRACKING ALONG AN
ADVANCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, AND CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OFFSHORE
MON NIGHT AS THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW TUESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED, ALONG WITH AMPLE
MIXING, SO SCA HEADLINES ARE LIKELY FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
MARINE AREA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ632.
DISCUSSION...MAM/RHR
AVIATION...MAM/RHR
MARINE...ERI/RMM
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