983
FXUS61 KAKQ 141746
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1246 PM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
RAIN CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED ALONG THE
COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO BEEN TRENDED
LOWER FOR NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INCREASING CLOUDS BUT REMAINING MILD TODAY. A FEW LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
ALONG THE COAST.
2) A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT, AND TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, POSSIBLY ENDING AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NON-ACCUMULATING/TRACE LIGHT SNOW. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
3) TURNING COLDER THURSDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MAINLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW-
END CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 555 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...INCREASING CLOUDS BUT REMAINING MILD TODAY. SOME
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST.
WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE FARTHER OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY THIS MORNING, AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES
ACROSS ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. TO THE WEST, A TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN RIVER VALLEYS. OUT AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM, A WEAK SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF COAST
WILL LIFT ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TOWARD THE DELMARVA COAST
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE AND THE NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES STAY MILD TODAY ON DEEP-LAYERED SSW FLOW.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR SO,
RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 50S (LOWER 50S FOR THE EASTERN
SHORE).
CAMS HAVE COME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH OVERRUNNING LIGHT
RAIN OR SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST, SO HAVE
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING TO 40-50%. GIVEN ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS, RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT, ON THE ORDER OF A HUNDREDTH OR TWO
AT MOST.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT, AND TRACK NORTH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY. SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, POSSIBLY ENDING AS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF NON-ACCUMULATING/TRACE LIGHT SNOW. NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
A POTENT NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTH INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND GULF COAST REGION TONIGHT BEFORE EJECTING NE INTO THE
NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOCAL AREA
WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS IN THE SUBSIDENT/
MOISTURE DEPRIVED REGION. MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE ASSOCIATED
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH RES CAMS ARE AGAIN KEYING ON A
NARROW BAND OF OVERRUNNING SHOWERS ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE
FRONT. QPF TOTALS REMAIN VERY LOW WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION AS WELL, AS MOST MOISTURE GETS HUNG UP ON THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS OR PULLED TOWARDS THE EXITING SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE
OVER TO SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AS
PRECIPITATION ENDS, BUT DUE TO THE WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND
WEAK PRECIPITATION RATES, NO ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE SNOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3...TURNING COLDER, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAINLY DRY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW-END CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY DROP BEHIND THE STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING. STRONG CAA WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS. HIGHS THURSDAY LIKELY GET ACHIEVED
EARLY IN THE DAY ALONG THE COAST (OR IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
INLAND). LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT FALL INTO THE MID
TEENS INLAND TO AROUND 20 ALONG THE COAST. DESPITE DIMINISHING
WINDS, THIS RESULTS IN NEAR SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS INLAND.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS FOR ANY POTENTIAL COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S, BEFORE
MODERATING SLIGHTLY SATURDAY BACK TOWARD CLIMO NORMAL.
ANOTHER POTENT UPPER TROUGH DIVES SE OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
THIS WEEKEND, DRIVING ANOTHER PAIR OF ARCTIC COLD FRONTS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT/SUN. WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED IN
THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ALSO CROSS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR MAINLY LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION SAT/SUN AFTERNOONS. FOR PLANNING PURPOSES, IT
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE 00Z/14 MODELS, PARTICULARLY THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF AND A GOOD NUMBER OF BOTH EPS/GEFS MEMBERS,
HAVE BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THAT TROUGH A BIT
FARTHER SOUTH AND TAPPING INTO SOME GULF MOISTURE. THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE THE KEY TO THIS FORECAST. IF COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE CAN DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH TIME/MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SOME ADDITIONAL WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY. THIS REMAINS A LOW-CONFIDENCE SCENARIO
AT THIS TIME, HENCE THE 20-30% POPS. HOWEVER, IT CERTAINLY DOES
BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL CYCLES. IN ANY
SCENARIO, AFTER A VERY BRIEF (1 DAY!) MODERATING TREND ON
SATURDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD TEMPERATURES RETURNS TO THE
REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S
AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BOTH SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUDS WITH SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS
SHOWING UP SW OF RIC. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
SO LITTLE (IF ANY) OF THIS PRECIP IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE.
WILL MAINTAIN PROB30 GROUPS AT THE SE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. WINDS BECOME W OR WNW 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND MARGINAL MVFR CIGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. ANY REDUCTIONS WOULD BE INTO MARGINAL MVFR AND SHOULD
BE SHORT-LIVED. SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTY
NW WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY
IMPACTS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
AS OF 250 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOW-END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
(ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING) WITH GUSTY S-SW WINDS.
- STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GALE CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY NIGHT.
- TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN LOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE AND LOW
WATER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
JAMES RIVER BY FRIDAY.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA THIS MORNING,
WITH A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEST. TO OUR EAST, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RETREAT FURTHER
OFFSHORE. A COMPRESSED PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, WITH A SW LOW-LEVEL JET
HELPING TO SUPPLEMENT HIGHER WINDS AT THE SURFACE. MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
CENTRAL/NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND SCAS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH AT
LEAST THIS MORNING. S-SW WINDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE SOME LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD REMAIN 15-20 KT ON THE OCEAN.
THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. AN
ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING TO 20-25 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO 30 KT,
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. PREVAILING
WINDS MAY BE A BIT LOWER ON THE UPPER RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND,
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SCA CRITERIA REGARDLESS. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE ARE TWO PERIODS WHERE LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE: 1)
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COLD FRONT AND 2)
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY MORNING AS STRONG CAA AND PRESSURE RISES
OVERSPREAD THE WATERS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE BRIEF
(<2 HRS) AND CAN BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS, IF
NECESSARY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED UPWARD DURING THIS SECOND
TIMEFRAME (OVERNIGHT THURSDAY) WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN 35-40
KT WIND GUSTS ON CENTRAL-NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. HAVE THEREFORE
ISSUED A GALE WATCH FROM 00Z-12Z FRI (7 PM THU-7 AM FRI). COULD NEED
TO EXPAND THIS INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS
IN FUTURE UPDATES, BUT CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER HERE.
REGARDLESS, THIS WILL BE A VERY COLD AIRMASS AND THESE SITUATIONS
TEND TO OVERPERFORM IN THE WIND DEPARTMENT. REGARDING HEADLINES:
WILL LET THE ONGOING SCA DROP OFF IN THE BAY AT 10 AM THIS MORNING
BEFORE ISSUING SCAS FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE RIVERS,
CURRITUCK SOUND, AND OCEAN S OF CAPE CHARLES, HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
ISSUED SCAS FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS, THE SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 00Z FRI, TRANSITIONING
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED GALE WATCH THROUGH 12Z FRI. WINDS RAMP DOWN
CONSIDERABLY LATER FRIDAY MORNING BUT LINGERING SCAS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH NOON OR SO. SW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS POSSIBLE. LOWER CONFIDENCE BY SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP OFFSHORE, BUT ADDITIONAL SCAS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE.
SEAS ARE 4-5 FT N AND 2-4 FT S THIS MORNING, WITH WAVES AROUND 2 FT
ELSEWHERE IN THE BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. SEAS MAY SUBSIDE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON AS WINDS DECREASE SOME, BUT EXPECTING A RAMP UP AGAIN
TONIGHT TO 3-5 FT AS WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS
INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY NIGHT TO 4-6 FT, WITH 3-5 FT WAVES
POSSIBLE IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AS WELL.
LASTLY...TIDAL ANOMALIES REMAIN LOW FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
TIDES GENERALLY TREND LOWER BY FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WITH
LOW WATER (AND LOW WATER ADVISORIES) POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER
CHESAPEAKE BAY, JAMES RIVER, YORK RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-638-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM THURSDAY TO 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
DISCUSSION...KMC/MAM
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...SW
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