226
FXUS63 KFGF 221550
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
950 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019
SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CWA,
NOT HANDLED BY ANY MODEL PARTICULARLY WELL. SO FAR VISIBILITIES
ARE NOT TOO BAND AND THINK THAT WE WILL GET ANOTHER DUSTING BEFORE
SNOW TAPERS OFF COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS FOR A
BIT MORE THIS MORNING AND PUT IN SOME FLURRIES RIGHT AFTER, BUT
OVERALL THINK THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DRYING TREND LATER
TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019
REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW CLEARING THE
PEMBINA TO DEVILS LAKE TO NEW ROCKFORD AREA. MEANWHILE, THE
STEADIEST SNOW SEEMS TO EXTEND FROM NORTH OF WADENA TO FARGO THEN UP
TOWARD THE WASKISH AREA. BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE, THIS AREA COULD
PICK UP ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTER SUNRISE, THE EVENT SHOULD
REALLY START TAPERING OFF. WIND SPEEDS HAVE STAYED ON THE LOWER END,
SO NO DRIFTING SNOW RIGHT NOW.
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL OBSERVER REPORTS
STARTING COMING IN AFTER SUNRISE TO GET A GOOD IDEA OF HOW MUCH
FELL. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL RECENT (AS OF 2 AM) REPORTS IN SOME OF
THE LARGER CITIES...ABOUT 2 INCHES IN FARGO, 4.5 INCHES IN GRAND
FORKS, AROUND 6 INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE, AND AROUND 5 INCHES IN PARK
RAPIDS. THESE AMOUNTS WERE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AT DEVILS LAKE AND
GRAND FORKS, WHERE A SNOW BAND LIFTED FURTHER NORTH AND REMAINED IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS LAST EVENING. THE AMOUNT AT FARGO WAS A
LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED, BUT THEY ARE STILL IN THE CURRENT EARLY
MORNING BAND, SO MORE CAN BE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY, BUT OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING THEM TO BECOME GUSTY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH DRIFTING SNOW.
NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUN THERE WILL BE, BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON
THE DEGREE OF CLEARING (IF ANY). WITH THE FRESH SNOW, IF IT DID STAY
CLEAR FOR SEVERAL HOURS, TEMPERATURES COULD DROP QUICKLY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019
THERE ARE SEVERAL IMPACTFUL PERIODS TO NOTE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK
AND WEEKEND, AS A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS AND A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH DEVELOPS ALOFT.
ON WEDNESDAY, A CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH PASS FROM
WESTERN MANITOBA TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. WITH SATURATION PERSISTING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
WARM NOSE IN THE 2-5KFT RANGE CAUSING POTENTIAL FOR ICE LOSS, SEE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WED
AFTERNOON. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE EFFECTS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONG SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A
FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS RUSH IN WITH STRONG NNW WINDS. ON WED NIGHT,
STRONG MID-LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL.
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING WITH A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20-30 MPH WITH POTENTIAL
FOR GUSTS 30-40+ MPH.
ISSUING A WATCH FOR BLUSTERY GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ND AND THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. PARTICULARLY CONCERNED FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE
WINDS PARALLEL TO THE VALLEY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT OF
STRONG WINDS. NEW WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF 2-4"+ FROM MONDAY AND EARLY
TODAY WILL PROVIDE BLOWABLE FLUFFY SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SUSPECT THIS WOULD MAINLY IMPACT TRAVEL IN OPEN
COUNTRY AND RURAL AREAS, AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO NEW SNOWFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTY, AS
THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF DETERMINISTIC WIND SPEEDS SEEM TOO LOW GIVEN
PERSISTENCE AND THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, POSSIBLY FROM MOVING IN THE
INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TOO EARLY. GEFS 10-M WINDS SHOW
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON THE LOW END OF WIND SPEEDS, FURTHER
SUPPORTING THE THEORY THAT DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE DOWNPLAYING
WINDS.
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS -20 TO -40F WILL ALSO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY,
ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING VISIBILITY AND REDUCED BLOWING SNOW. HOWEVER
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF
THURSDAY, THURSDAY NIGHT, AND FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN
IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO. HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TO BE
A CONCERN EACH NIGHT AND MORNING FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY FALL BELOW THE ZERO MARKER.
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A STRONG CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT
MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM, THE OUTLOOK LATER INTO NEXT WEEK LENDS CONFIDENCE TO ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR AND HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST MON JAN 21 2019
VSBYS IN THE IFR RANGE THRU TUESDAY MORNING AT MOST SITES, THOUGH
DVL WILL SEE THE SNOW END OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL VARY
BUT MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH THE SNOW RISING INTO VFR
TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTN. WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST TUESDAY 10 TO 20
KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN E ND/RRV.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ030-039-053.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029-030-040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>003-005-
006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032.
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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