455
FXUS63 KFGF 142335
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
635 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS WITH WETTING RAIN IMPACTS TO OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
SHOULD END WEST TO EAST LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
- WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY MAINLY TOWARDS THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
ADJUSTED POPS A BIT FOR LATEST RADAR TRENDS AS SHOWERS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND WESTERN MN. WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE SEEN CLEARING AND WINDS STARTING TO PICK
UP. DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAS STARTED TO GUST UP TO 40 TO 50 MPH AT
SOME OF THE PERSONAL WEATHER STATIONS, AND KDVL IS SUSTAINED AT
30 MPH. WILL LIKELY ADJUST THE WIND ADVISORY TO START A BIT
EARLIER THAN WE ORIGINALLY HAD GOING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
..SYNOPSIS
STRONG MID/UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR NORTHEAST MONTANA/NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ONGOING RAIN AND EXPECTED PERIOD OF WINDY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WILL INITIALLY BE COMPLICATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
STALLED TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND WEAKER RIDGING IN THE CENTRAL
CONUS PLACES US IN A SPLIT- FLOW TYPE SET-UP BEFORE THE UPSTREAM
TROUGH BREAKS LOOSE. TREND SHOULD BE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES
THAN THE LAST 3 DAYS, HOWEVER DUE TO THE FLATTER NATURE OF THE
RIDGING, WE SHOULD BE MILD RATHER THAN HOT. AS CLIMATE AVERAGES
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S AND DROPPING TOWARDS THE UPPER 60S BY THE
END OF THIS MONTH, THIS PATTERN WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S IS ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT THAT UNSEASONABLE.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEYOND TODAY; THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR A LIGHT SHOWER/SPRINKLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA ALOFT LINGERING IN OUR NORTH (WETTING RAIN
NOT EXPECTED). THERE IS A WEAKER/PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TUESDAY (MAIN WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM IN CANADA)
OTHERWISE BETTER CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN DO NOT ARRIVE UNTIL
FRIDAY-SUNDAY AS THE UPSTREAM TROUGH BREAKS LOOSE AND TRACKS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVOLUTION/DETAILS REMAIN VARIABLE AND
AT THIS TIME THIS SHOULD BE A MUCH WEAKER TROUGH PASSAGE THAN
WHAT WE ARE SEEING TODAY LOWERING THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAIN.
..RAIN SHOWERS TODAY
THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN IS CONTINUING TO TRANSITION EAST OVER
NORTHWEST MN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
DUE TO LINGERING DEEPER BL SATURATION IN SOUTHEAST BL FLOW. THE
MAIN DRY SLOT FEATURING WELL DEFINED SUBSIDENCE IS ALREADY
MOVING ACROSS WESTERN ND TOWARDS EASTERN ND AND ORGANIZED SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD EXIT OUR REGION WEST TO EAST. DRIZZLE/LOWER
LEVEL RAIN PROCESSES WILL BE HARDER TO PIN DOWN AND MAY LINGER
ALONG WITH LIGHT FOG INTO THE EVENING BEFORE CLEARING AS WINDS
START TO SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE BL. IN ANY CASE, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED BY LATE EVENING.
..WINDS TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT ALREADY STARTING TO PUSH EAST OVER WESTER ND WILL
ARRIVE LATER THIS EVENING AND INCREASED CAA 925MB WILL RESULT
IN DRY ADIABATIC MIXED LAYER OFF THE SURFACE. WHILE THERE MAY BE
A SHALLOW NOCTURNAL INVERSION, PRESSURE RISES AND STRONG CAA AT
925MB SHOULD HELP CREATE AT LEAST A PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
FROM THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES. WINDS NEAR THE
TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER MAY BE NEAR 50KT OVER PARTS OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN, AND THIS RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LOCALIZED GUSTS 58MPH+, THOUGH MORE FREQUENT GUSTS WITH THE
PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WOULD BE 45-50MPH. DUE TO THE DIRECTION
OF THE WINDS AND ORIENTATION OF UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
MIXED LAYER BEING WESTERLY IT IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR STRONGER
GUSTS EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY ESCARPMENT, WHICH MATCHES
HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IN PLACEMENT OF ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY IN THE 10PM-7AM PERIOD. THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS 45-50 MPH FARTHER EAST OR SOUTH THAN
THE CURRENT ADVISORY, HOWEVER LOCATION/DURATION/COVERAGE ARE
MUCH LESS CERTAIN DUE TO THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FLOW/WIND
DIRECTION. IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR IN THE EVENT WE HAVE
TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY BASED ON TRENDS THIS EVENING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2026
IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KDVL WHICH HAS SEEN SOME
CLEARING AND IS GUSTING ABOVE 30 KTS. THE LIGHT RAIN AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL HANG ON A BIT LONGER ACROSS OUR MORE EASTERN
AIRPORTS, BUT WILL SEEN CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR AND WINDS
SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND PICK UP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
KFAR AND KGFK, AND A BIT LATER THIS EVENING ON THE MN SIDE.
AFTER 06Z, ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR AND WINDS GUSTING ABOVE 30
KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, THEN WEST. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE AT THE RED RIVER AIRPORTS WITH STRONG 45 KTS OFF THE
DECK. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW,
GRADUALLY TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN DIRECTION.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-054.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...JR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page