017
FXUS63 KFGF 070008
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
708 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH A PRIMARY RISK FOR LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH SECONDARY RISK
FOR WINDS TO 70 MPH, BRIEF TORNADOES, AND FLASH FLOODING.
- LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 SEVERE RISK LATE TUESDAY FOR HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94/HWY 10.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AT VALLEY CITY, GRAND FORKS, ROSEAU, AND OTHER SITES
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH. CONVECTION HAS STAYED OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND
ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS ARE STILL QUITE MOIST RIGHT BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY, DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY MOVING IN. LET THE WATCH GO FOR
OUR EAST CENTRAL ND AND NORTHWESTERN MN COUNTIES. AS FOR THE
CONVECTION, WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE INTERSECTION OF THE COLD
FRONT AND A FEW PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY AND WEST CENTRAL MN. THERE SEEMS TO BE A TRANSITION
TO MORE CLUSTERING/LINEAR TYPE THREAT, ALTHOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A
BRIEF WEAK TORNADO IN A FEW SPOTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THIS WEEK, FLOW ALOFT WILL BE GENERALLY ZONAL AS UPPER RIDGING
IN THE CENTRAL CONUS IS INFLUENCED BY AT LEAST A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE CREST OF THE RIDGE. THESE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES WILL
PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT TO DRIVE THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS, AS WELL AS
FLASH FLOODING (MORE INFO ON THESE BELOW).
THIS AFTERNOON'S TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
COUPLED WITH HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S ARE PUSHING HEAT INDICES
INTO THE 90S, INCLUDING NEAR 100 IN SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST-
CENTRAL MN. THIS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN SOME AREAS,
AS WELL AS RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 20 MPH ARE PUSHING WET-
BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 80S. THESE FACTORS
INTRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST-CENTRAL MN.
GETTING INTO LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE STRONG FAVORS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGING TO
BUILD WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION, EVENTUALLY
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS, INCLUDING OUR
AREA. THIS STRONGLY FAVORS ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
WITH EARLY/MID JULY NEARING OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES, THIS LENDS CONFIDENCE TOWARD OUR AREA SEEING
POTENTIAL HEAT-RELATED ISSUES. DESPITE THIS INCREASED CONFIDENCE
SEVERAL DAYS AWAY, IT REMAINS UNCLEAR TO THE MAGNITUDE AND
EXACT DURATION OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALSO
BRINGS INCREASINGLY SUPPRESSIVE INFLUENCE IN TERMS OF UPPER
FORCING FOR ASCENT/PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, IN THESE REGIMES,
MESOSCALE INFLUENCES CAN DOMINATE - THUS, CONFIDENCE IN THESE
DETAILS IS VIRTUALLY NILL. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP WITHIN
THE STRONGLY HEATED AIR MASS, IT IS REASONABLE TO THINK THEY
COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
..SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
A NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST COLD FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD
ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, AS INFLUENCED BY A
STOUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MB
INTO ON. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR INITIATING
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS RICH
MOISTURE AND STRONG INSTABILITY.
WITH FLOW ALOFT GENERALLY ZONAL, AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW LEVELS, THIS PRESENTS A GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONALLY SHEARED
REGIME FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. BULK SHEAR VECTORS PERPENDICULAR
TO THE COLD FRONT WILL FAVOR INITIALLY DISCRETE MODES, WITH
SUPERCELLS LIKELY. WITH SUPERCELLS AS EXPECTED INITIAL STORM
MODE AMID STRONG INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR, LARGE TO
VERY LARGE HAIL (POTENTIALLY 2-3 INCHES) IS BROUGHT TO THE
FOREFRONT OF HAZARDS. SUPERCELLS AMID STRONG INSTABILITY AND
RICH MOISTURE ALSO INTRODUCES POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADOES,
ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR LIMITS EXPECTED
UPPER END STRENGTH (NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED EF-2). ADDITIONALLY,
AMBIENT VORTICITY NEAR THE COLD FRONT ALSO INTRODUCES A SOURCE
FOR LOW LEVEL SPIN SHOULD A STORM ANCHOR ITSELF ON THE FRONT. AI-
BASED GUIDANCE LIKE NADOCAST AND STORMNET CONTINUE TO KEEP
TORNADIC POTENTIAL IN THE CARDS AS WELL, INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN THIS CONTINUING TO BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD.
WHILE INITIAL MODE IS EXPECTED TO FEATURE SUPERCELLS, FRONTAL
FORCING AND MARGINAL ANVIL-LAYER STORM RELATIVE WINDS WILL
PROMOTE CLUSTERING OF STORMS. THESE CLUSTERS THEN SHIFT HAZARD
POTENTIAL AWAY FROM VERY LARGE HAIL TO MORE OF A STRONG
WIND/HAIL THREAT. GUSTY WINDS TO 70 MPH CAN BE ANTICIPATED,
POTENTIALLY INTRODUCING WIND-DRIVEN HAIL.
THE TRANSITION OF INITIALLY DISCRETE/SEMI DISCRETE SUPERCELLS TO
MORE CLUSTERS IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON MOVING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL TIMEFRAME FOR SEVERE STORMS IS 3 PM TO 11 PM.
LASTLY, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WITH
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS IS DRIVEN BY RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER AND TOTAL ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH
VERY HIGH FREEZING LEVEL, STRONG INSTABILITY, AND POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING STORMS/CLUSTERS. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 2-3 INCHES PER
HOUR, WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO CREATE MINOR FLASH FLOODING
IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY IF THIS OCCURS OVER URBAN LANDSCAPE (E.G.
FARGO-MOORHEAD, BEMIDJI, DETROIT LAKES, ETC).
..SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY
TODAY'S COLD FRONT STALLS WITHIN SD AND CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN MN
BY TUESDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, SPARKING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
STALLED FRONT. THIS FRONT, AND INSTABILITY NEAR IT, IS EXPECTED
TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS TO SPREAD EASTWARD WITHIN SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST-
CENTRAL MN. MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH, ALTHOUGH SHOULD THE
FRONT BE PLACED DEEPER INTO OUR AREA, HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND 70 MPH MAY ENSUE.
PERHAPS MORE AT THE FOREFRONT OF HAZARDS IS POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. THIS IS DRIVEN BY STRONG FORCING
COMBINED WITH VERY RICH MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE FRONT, OF WHICH
INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1-2
INCHES, PERHAPS UP TO 4 INCHES, IS REASONABLE EXPECTATION.
SHOULD THIS FALL ON AREAS THAT RECEIVE HIGH RAIN TODAY,
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING WOULD BE INCREASED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS
EVENING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FILLING IN ALONG THIS
COLD FRONT AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES, WINDS WILL SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND REMAIN STEADY AROUND 8-13KTS FOR A FEW
HOURS. IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY, NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND WE WILL SEE SOME SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS. SOME
LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE, THIS HAS BEEN MENTIONED AT DVL AND BJI.
WE WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON TUESDAY. RAIN WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...CJ/LYNCH
AVIATION...FGF
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