719
FXUS63 KFGF 191841
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
141 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- WINDY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FIRE CONCERNS REMAIN LOW DUE TO
LIKELY RAIN.
- CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
..SYNOPSIS
GENERAL CONUS RIDING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
TROUGHING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST BEGINS TO MOVE
ASHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO
EMERGE AMONG CLUSTER REGARDING TO THE SPEED OF THE TROUGH
EJECTION INTO THE PLAINS WITH SOME AS EARLY FRIDAY AND SOME
SLOWER SOLUTIONS BRINGING THE MAIN TROUGH INTO THE DAKOTAS ON
SATURDAY. EITHER WAY RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THIS WEEKEND BUT
LIKLEY NOT A SOAKER AS PROBS FOR GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH
PEAK AT ABOUT 50% WITH OTHER CLUSTERS AS LOW AS 30%. OTHER
NOTABLE FEATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE STRONG WINDS FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY THOUGH RH DOES NOT LOOK TO BE PARTICULARLY
CONCERNING SO WOULD BE SIMPLE WIND HEADLINES IF WARRANTED. A
WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THROUGH CANADA
WILL AGAIN BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE
ECMWF EFI SHOWING ONLY MORE OF A WARM SIGNAL AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AND FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY.
- RAIN CHANCES/WIND
RAIN COULD COME IN MULTIPLE WAVES DEPENDING HOW NEBULOUS OR
WELL ORGANIZED THE SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY IS THAT EMANATES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATE THIS WEEK. OVERALL THE MOST ROBUST QPF
LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST PER CLUSTERS BUT STILL
SEEING HINTS OF AN EML ADVECTING NORTH WITH MUCAPE IN THE
HUNDREDS BRINGING THUNDER CHANCES. THIS WOULD MAKE AMOUNTS MUCH
MORE VARIABLE BUT STILL WOULD EXPECT AMOUNTS TO REMAIN UNDER AN
INCH EVEN IF THUNDERSTORMS DO MANIFEST GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE 95TH
PERCENTILE ACCUMULATION PEAKING BELOW 1" THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH
THE NUMEROUS WAVES WILL ALSO COME ENHANCED SURFACE FLOW WITH ALL
3 ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS (GEFS, EC, CANADIAN) ALSO SHOWING A STRONG
COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY. NBM QMD MAX WIND GUSTS SHOWS
GUSTS FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. EFI ALSO HAS SOME
SHADING IN THE 0.5-0.7 RANGE WHICH INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL CLIMO
VALUES BUT MAYBE NOT APPROACHING HEADLINES. WE WILL SEE HOW
THIS PLAYS OUT.
OVERALL ENJOY A FEW DAYS OF 60S TO 70S FOR HIGHS THIS WEEK AS
THEY WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FLEETING IN THE COMING WEEKS WITH
SEASONAL NORMS DROPPING INTO THE 40S BY THE END OF THE MONTH FOR
HIGHS. FINALLY, AFTER A WIDESPREAD MORNING OF TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 20S LAST NIGHT WE ARE OFFICIALLY ENDING FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES FOR THE SEASON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON OCT 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT ALL TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY IN THE RANGE
OF 6-10 KNOTS, TURNING SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING TUESDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS BY 18Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...ZANKER
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