363
FXUS63 KFGF 142128
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
328 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- WINTER IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A STORM
SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE AREA.
THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS, INCLUDING
SNOW, AND BLOWING SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE H5 SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS IN A STATE OF PROGRESSIVE AND
INTERMITTENTLY WAVY, NORTHWEST FLOW. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS WELL
ESTABLISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE CANADIAN PLAINS, WITH STRONG MID
LEVEL FLOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHICH THEN FLOWS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, THEN EVENTUALLY INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS SETUP CONTINUES TO REINFORCE AN EVER STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE, WITH INTERMITTENT SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW. AS SUCH,
TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SHARP, WITH A WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS A RATHER NARROW BOUNDARY STRETCHING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS AFTERNOON, H5 RIDGING IS PUSHING
THIS BOUNDARY NORTHWARD, ALLOWING WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA NEXT WEEK,
WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS
WARMER AIR TRAVELS OVER THE SNOW PACK, WE COULD SEE FOG AND STRATUS
FORM IN SOME AREAS, WHICH COULD LIMIT THE UPPER BOUNDS OF TEMPS;
HOWEVER, STRONG WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ENCOURAGE BETTER MIXING,
ESPECIALLY IN HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. AFTERNOON HIGHS COULD REACH 40 DEGREES BRIEFLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN SOME LOCATIONS, WITH WIDESPREAD 30S OTHERWISE BEING
EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY FALL INTO
THE TEENS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.
..GUSTY WEST WINDS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG JET AT THE 850MB AND 700MB LEVELS WILL SUPPORT
GUSTY WINDS ON TUESDAY AS DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS
MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ULTIMATELY, WIND GUST POTENTIAL
WILL DEPEND UPON SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING POTENTIAL MIXING AND
CLOUD COVER; HOWEVER, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF
WEST WINDS RANGING FROM 20-30 MPH, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 45 MPH IF
THIS MIXING OCCURS.
..WINTER IMPACTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AN UPPER LOW TRAVERSES NORTHWEST FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
WHICH WILL BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR WINTER IMPACTS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A SHARP
BAROCLINIC ZONE, WITH ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH AND PACIFIC MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTH. ENSEMBLES SPREAD REMAINS SOMEWHAT HIGH WITH REGARDS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST QPF, BUT IS GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH WIND POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME, A SWATH OF MODERATELY HEAVY SNOW
IS POSSIBLE, ALONG WITH NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR
HIGHER. THE WSSI-P IS SHOWING ROUGHLY A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY IMPACTS FOR MUCH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY, AND A 10 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR WARNING IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE INCREASING OUT OF THE SOUTH, WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
30 KNOTS POSSIBLE EVERYWHERE EXCEPT KBJI. PATCHY DRIFTING SNOW
IS POSSIBLE. MID TO HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KTVF AND KBJI HEADING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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