147  
FXUS63 KFGF 231200  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
700 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
CLOUDS CLEARING GRADUALLY NORTHWARD WITH CLEARING IN LANGDON AND  
CAVALIER AND CANDO IN THE PAST 2 HOURS. AREA OF CLOUDS BEMIDJI-  
PARK RAPIDS AREA HOLDING ON. DID SEE SOME CLOUDS IN THE MID RRV  
BUT THAT HAS SINCE DISSPIATED. SO OVERALL PATCHES OF CLOUDS THIS  
MORNING WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. NO CHANGES NEEDED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED, MAINLY TIED TO LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION AND PTYPE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER  
PARTS OF EASTERN ND.  
 
TO START TODAY, THE AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT  
NEAR THE MANITOBA BORDER IS STARTING TO LIFT A BIT NORTH OR  
NORTHWEST IN TIME WITH CLEARING NEARING CANDO-LANGDON-HALLOCK.  
THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUD COVER BEMIDJI AREA WHICH HAS  
GROWN A BIT AND PUSHIND WEST A BIT. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE  
SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RRV PRIOR TO DAWN. SO WE  
WILL START THE DAY WITH AREAS OF SUN AND CLOUDS. IN CLEARER AREA  
TEMPS AT DAWN WILL BE IN THE MID 20S. EXPECT TODAY WILL CONTINUE  
TO SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH A DEVELOPING EAST-SOUTHEAST  
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA MOVES EAST. HIGHS TODAY IN THE  
40S. IN SUNNIER AREAS HIGHS MAY APPROACH 50 WITH BEST CHANCE OF  
THAT IN THE MID AND SOUTHERN RRV.  
 
TONIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION ENTERING WESTERN ND SPREADING GRADUALLY EAST. BUT IT  
WILL BE FIGHTING DRY AIR FROM HIGH IN NW ONTARIO...SO EASTWARD  
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW. SLOWED DOWN EAST ADVANCE OF  
PRECIPITATION FROM PREV FCST A BIT. BY 12Z SUN SHORT TERM MODELS  
ALL INDICATE LIGHT PRECPITATION ROLLA TO DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY  
CITY-FORMAN AND WEST. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS RISE A BIT WITH THICKER  
CLOUDS MOVE IN WITH SYSTEM BUT DO EXPECT TEMPS IN THE 34-37  
DEGREE RANGE IN PRECIPITATION AREA, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR 34 AND  
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN ESP WEST OF CITY OF DEVILS  
LAKE. IN THIS AREA JUST WEST OF CITY OF DVL, INCL MADDOCK, NEW  
ROCKFORD, LEEDS, WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MINOR ACCUMULATION  
DAWN SUNDAY. BUT EVEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE NBM (10 PCT CHANCE) IS  
ONLY SHOWING 0.5 INCH THERE. SO EVEN IF MOSTLY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE  
MINOR. FCST WILL GO OUT WITH AROUND 1/4 INCH SNOW PSBL. ANY MIX  
WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN PRIOR TO NOON SUNDAY. EASTWARD  
PROGRESSION OF LIGHT RAIN IS QUESTIONABLE AS SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO  
DRY AIR FROM THE ONTARIO HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO DRY UP  
EVENTUALLY. THINK IT WILL BE VERY HARD TO GET RAIN ANY FARTHER  
EAST THAN LANGDON, GRAND FORKS, DETROIT LAKES, WADENA. SO EAST OF  
THIS AREA IT WILL BE DRY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
PRINCIPAL CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL COME ON TUE/WED IN  
THE FORM OF WIND POTENTIAL TUE AND SOME RAIN FOR LATER TUE INTO  
EARLY THU.  
 
PCPN EVENT FOR SUN WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT  
LEAVING A DRIER AND SEASONAL MON IN ITS WAKE. BY TUE RETURN  
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT  
TO GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL BUT EXTREME EASTERN PART OF  
THE FORECAST AREA. GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS INDICATE A SOLID  
CORE OF 40 TO EVEN 50 KT 850 MB SOUTH WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.  
 
WINDS WILL EASE ON WED AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS  
AND INTO THE MIDWEST. WE'LL BE LEFT WITH MORE OF A TROUGH/SFC FRONT  
ARRANGEMENT (AS CLUSTERED SOLUTIONS MOSTLY MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH INTO  
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS) WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ENOUGH PWATS FOR A  
STRATIFORM PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE TUE INTO WED, SLOWLY ENDING OVER  
THE MN SIDE AT SOME POINT ON THU.  
 
WARM AIR ADVECTION EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL DRIVE HIGH TEMPS ABOVE 50  
ON TUE JUST AHEAD OF THE FROPA, THEN TURNING MORE SEASONAL BEFORE  
ANOTHER WARM UP TO END THE PERIOD ON FRI.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHERN MN, MAINLY BEMIDJI/PARK  
RAPIDS AREA NORTHWARD TO ROSEAU AND THEN WEST ALONG THE MANITOBA  
BORDER. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR. SUSPECT THE MVFR CLOUDS MAY HANG  
ON THRU THE MORNING EAST (BJI) WHEREAS REST OF THE AREA REMAINS  
MOSTLY CLEAR. INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WEST,  
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST, BUT LOWER CEILINGS PSBL DVL REGION BY  
12Z SUN AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 
UPDATE...RIDDLE  
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE  
LONG TERM...WJB  
AVIATION...RIDDLE  
 
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