008
FXUS63 KFGF 151917
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
217 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER.
- A NARROW SWATH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY
MORNING BUT THE EXACT LOCATION AND CEILING OF AMOUNTS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..SYNOPSIS
CURRENT SPLIT FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO SW FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A PNW TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH THIS
TROUGHING WILL BE PRECEDING SEASONALLY STRONG THERMAL RIDGING
(>98TH PERCENTILE THURSDAY EVENING) WHICH WILL PUSH THURSDAY
HIGH TEMPS TO NEAR RECORDS BUT COMING UP A FEW DEGREES SHORT FOR
MOST. THIS ALSO BRINGS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DUE TO MINIMUM
RH'S OF 25 TO 30 THOUGH WINDS LESS THAN 30 MPH WILL TEMPER THE
THREAT, MORE ON THIS BELOW. BEHIND THE HEAT ON THURSDAY COMES A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS CRASHING FROM THE 70S/80S TO
30S/40S FOR FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE AREA.
RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SLOWLY REBOUNDING BY
SUNDAY INTO THE 40S FOR ALL WITH 50S/60S LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK.
- THURSDAY HEAT/FIRE WEATHER
WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA UP INTO THE RED LAKES EXPECT
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. HIGHS WILL WIDELY REACH FROM
70 TO 80 FROM VALLEY CITY TO THE RED LAKES AND POINTS SOUTH. A
FEW MAY TOP 80 BUT THAT ONLY LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A 10% CHANCE FROM
LISBON TO WADENA AND SOUTH. WITH THE WARM TEMPS RH WILL FALL
INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE (1PM TO 8PM) BUT WINDS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY AT 20KTS GUSTING 30KTS AT THE WORST
DURING THESE LOW RH PERIODS (NOON TO 5PM) MEANING THERE IS A
SHORT 4-5 HOUR TEMPORAL OVERLAP AND EVEN SMALLER SPATIAL OVERLAP
(REALLY JUST THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY). OVERALL THIS KEEPS
US SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT TO ENOUGH SUPPORT NEAR
CRITICAL MESSAGING. HDWI DOES HAVE THE AREA OF CONCERN REACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND AND ERC IN THE MID 20S. ABERDEEN TO OUR
SOUTH WILL HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE OF THE NEAR CRITICAL VARIETY IN OUR FAR
SOUTH. WOULDN'T RULE OUT SITES MEETING RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
A SHORT DURATION BUT AT THIS POINT A RFW DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED
WITH AN SPS IN EFFECT FOR THE MN COUNTIES OF CONCERN. STILL
RECOMMEND CAUTION IF BURNING.
- SNOW CHANCES
LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY THE TROUGHING MOVES MORE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WITH DECENT FGEN FROM 850-700MB AND FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR SNOW. USING LESSONS LEARNED FROM THIS
WINTER AND LOOKING AT THE EC AIFS ENS THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND FAR NORTHWEST MN. OVERALL THERE IS
A 50% CHANCE FOR A QUARTER INCH AND 30% FOR A HALF INCH OR MORE
WHICH CERTAINLY SUPPORTS MORE THAN NUISANCE AMOUNTS OF SNOW.
GUIDANCE SUITES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHETHER THEY KEEP IT SNOW
VS RAIN THOUGH. HREF SNOW PROBS ARE AS HIGH AS 50% FOR A NARROW
30-50 MILE WIDE SWATH OF 3 OR MORE INCHES, WHEREAS THE NBM AND
REFS HAVE BARELY A 20% CHANCE FOR EVEN 1 INCH. WHICH IS RIGHT
YOU MAY ASK? LOOKING AT THE WPC SUPER ENSEMBLE THERE ARE OF
OUTLIERS THAT OF COURSE HAVE 4" OR MORE (VERY LOW PROBABILITY)
BUT THE MAJORITY AT ANY GIVEN POINT ARE 0-2" WITH MOST LIKELY
GETTING ONLY A FEW TENTHS (NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH LIGHT
SNOW ON EITHER SIDE). THEREFORE THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE BAND SET UP AND EVEN HOW MUCH OF IT
FALLS AS SNOW BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE A BAND OF 0.2 TO 0.4"
OF QPF WILL FALL SOMEWHERE. THIS BRINGS AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE
FOR WINTER IMPACTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO BE WARRANTED BY SOMETIME TOMORROW.
LATER ON IN THE PERIOD THERE IS NOTHING THAT IMMEDIATELY GRABS
THE ATTENTION FOR POTENTIAL HAZARDS BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
THAT SPRING PATTERNS CAN BRING, WITH A RANGE OF HAZARDS
POSSIBLE, IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE TRULY QUIET FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A COLD FRONT WORKING SOUTH INTO THE
AREA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. WINDS VEERING SLOWLY FROM THE
SOUTH TO THE THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS SOUTH OF THE FRONT REMAIN SOUTH/SW AND NORTH/NE TO THE
NORTH OF IT. GFK AND TVF WILL BOTH BE NEAR THE STALLED FRONT
THURSDAY MORNING SO WIND DIRECTIONS ARE STILL RELATIVELY
UNCERTAIN BUT TRIED TO GIVE A BEST GUESS AT TIMING. WIND GUSTS
ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WILL BE OVER 25KTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 17:
KFAR: 82/1987
KPKD: 79/1987
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT
CLIMATE...FGF
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