631
FXUS63 KFGF 230504
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1204 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY,
INCLUDING PERIODS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITHIN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. AN ADDITIONAL LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
EXISTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED APR 22 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WELL DEVELOPED AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH/LOW IS OBSERVED OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE RESIDES IN
EASTERN MT, WRAPPED IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THIS IS
HELPING BRING GUSTY WINDS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TO THE REGION, FUELING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY.
THE STRONG SURFACE LOW MIGRATES ITS WAY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING WHILE STILL MEANDERING IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL CAN FRIDAY. THIS WILL SWEEP A SERIES OF FRONTS
THAT WILL CONTINUE GUSTY WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY, AS WELL AS DRIVE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY. OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LIMITED, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH
FORCING AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL HOLD A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING
BOTH OF THESE PERIODS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONGLY AGREES IN
THE WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LOW TO MEANDER AROUND SOUTHERN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES OF CAN. THIS WILL HELP TREND OUR REGION'S TEMPERATURES
TOWARD AVERAGE TO BELOW AVERAGE BEHIND THURSDAY EVENING'S COLD
FRONT. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ALSO AGREES IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT
PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW OVER OUR
REGION AROUND SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION. AT
THIS TIME, RAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY TYPE. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION COULD
FALL AS SNOW. WHILE THERE IS A SMALL SUBSET OF GUIDANCE THAT
ALLOWS FOR SNOW BETWEEN 1-4 INCHES, THE CHANCE FOR WINTER
IMPACTS IS VERY LOW DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES
LIMITING ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY.
INTO NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES GENERAL UPPER
TROUGHING OVER OUR REGION AMID QUASI-SOUTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL PROMOTE CONTINUE NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS PROGRESSIVE INTERVALS OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION, MOST LIKELY TO FALL AS RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW.
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND
NORTH-CENTRAL MN. THIS IS DRIVEN BY GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS 20-30
MPH AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE
20-25 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS, WITH EVEN SOME RH VALUES DIPPING
INTO THE TEENS CLOSER TO CENTRAL MN. THERE IS A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REGIONS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
ELSEWHERE TODAY, NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH
SIMILAR RH VALUES IN THE 17-25 PERCENT RANGE, ALTHOUGH LESSER
WINDS IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE.
WHILE RH VALUES WILL TREND UPWARD THIS EVENING, THEY ARE
FORECAST TO STAY BELOW 50 PERCENT, MEANING LESS RECOVERY IN RH.
WINDS WILL ALSO STAY ELEVATED IN THE 15-25 MPH RANGE THIS
EVENING STILL OUT OF THE SOUTH- SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY, THIS
EVENING FEATURES A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, OF WHICH
MAY BE DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. THESE ASPECTS CONTINUE
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT, AND AHEAD OF THURSDAY'S FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FOR THURSDAY, MULTIPLE FRONTAL PASSAGES AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS
INTRODUCES THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS,
INCLUDING AN ADDITIONAL PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. DURING THE DAYTIME, A FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA SHIFTING WINDS FROM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 15-25 MPH (ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
STRENGTH OF WINDS AT THIS TIME).
BEHIND THIS FIRST FRONT THURSDAY, RH VALUES WILL DIP MARKEDLY,
AS LOW AS THE MID TEENS, WITH TEMPERATURES REACH BACK INTO THE
70S. A SECOND, TRUE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING, INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE WEST 25-40 MPH, WITH
RH VALUES INCREASING OVER 40-60 PERCENT DUE TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR FIRE WEATHER WATCH / RED FLAG WARNING
ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE REASONS MENTIONED ABOVE.
..LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING, THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN EASTERN ND, GENERALLY BETWEEN 7PM TO
MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO
60 MPH WITH THE HELP OF A VERY WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND
STRONG WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID PORTION OF THE CLOUD BEARING
LAYER. A FEW INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL UP TO 1 INCH MAY ALSO
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS.
GETTING INTO THURSDAY, A 'DRYLINE-LIKE' FRONTAL FEATURE PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE REGION. BY PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING, THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE WITHIN MINNESOTA.
FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE ENOUGH TO SPARK
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITHIN PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA, MORE LIKELY TO BE EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR.
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL OF
HAIL TO 1 INCH AND GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH. THERE IS ALSO STILL
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AS WELL AS FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND VENTING
ALOFT REMAINS ADVERTISED BY A SUBSET OF CAMS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU APR 23 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING MAY BRING GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 50 KNOTS. THESE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED SO THE PROBABILITY OF TAF SITE IMPACTS
IS LOW. OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING MAY DEVELOP WITH SOME SHOWERS AS
WELL, BUT SHOULD REMAIN VERY ISOLATED.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS CONFIDENTLY FORECAST IN THE TAF THROUGH
09Z-12Z.
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED AND SHIFTING CLOCKWISE TOWARDS MORE
SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE
TO SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-30 KNOTS, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
40-45 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH MOST TAF SITES
(WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BJI) BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ/PERROUX
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