897
FXUS63 KFGF 152327
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
627 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
LIGHTNING REMAINS THE PRIMARY HAZARD THOUGH GUSTY WINDS AND
SOME SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. ANOMALOUSLY LOW H5 HEIGHTS
REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FLOW ON THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW, BRINGING REGULAR RAIN CHANCES TO OUR
AREA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING THE H7
WAVE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. THIS
AXIS OF DEVELOPMENT REMAINS IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EVENING. HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, TIMING IS LESS
CERTAIN, WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THURSDAY
LOOKS DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS; HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL
ENSEMBLE SCENARIOS THAT BRING RAIN CHANCES TO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FRIDAY BRINGS SOME UNCERTAINTY, BUT SEEMS TO CARRY A BIT
MORE CONSENSUS BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING THE
LIKELIHOOD TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
..ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY, AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE CAPE VALUES GENERALLY
JUST BELOW 1000 J/KG, BUT WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR. DRY AIR IS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE, WHICH SUPPORTS A MENTION OF WIND GUSTS;
HOWEVER, WITH WEAK CAPE AND SHEAR, UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT SHORT LIVED. WITH THE TALLER STORMS, WE COULD SEE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE LOADING TO SUPPORT 1 INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. MANY STORMS, HOWEVER, WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH SEVERE
STRENGTH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND DEPART THE AREA BY 06Z (PROB30S IN
EFFECT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR ALL BUT KDVL WHICH IS MOSTLY
CLEAR NOW. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE OCCASIONALLY GUSTED OVER
30KTS BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A PREVAILING AND WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH IS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT
WITH THE NATURE OF TODAYS CONVECTION. SKIES CLEARING THIS
EVENING WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW 10KTS BY 06Z. WINDS TOMORROW
AROUND 10KTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 20KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...TT
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