418
FXUS63 KFGF 032004
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
304 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2020
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2020
MINIMAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD.
UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS CURRENTLY WILL ONLY GIVE WAY
VERY GRADUALLY TO A RIDGE RIDING SHORTWAVE TRYING TO COME OVER THE
TOP OF THE BLOCKING PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY TO THE
EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
OTHER THAN THE INCREASING WINDS, THERE WILL BE NOT MUCH CHANGE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S WITH PLENTY OF SUN.
THE SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL ENTER THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS, WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS MOVING CLOSER TO THE
WESTERN CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME FORCING APPROACHING OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. MU CAPE VALUES ARE UNDER 1000 J/KG
AND THERE DOESN'T LOOK LIKE MUCH SHEAR OR LOW LEVEL JET GOING ON,
SO THINK SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACTS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2020
THE WEATHER THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY WILL FILL A BIT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINS TO BUILD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL
PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW PROVIDING ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB AGAIN AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AND RETURN
FLOW BRINGS WARMER AIR TO THE AREA.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING SLIGHTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2020
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES OR A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE
4500-7000 FT RANGE. THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AND PICK UP A BIT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT REMAIN
BELOW 12 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...HOPKINS
AVIATION...JR
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