969
FXUS63 KFGF 311147
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
647 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT RAIN, MIXING WITH A LITTLE SNOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BE THE SEASON'S FIRST SNOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH
NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FA. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY ASOS REPORTS FROM OUR CWA OF SNOW, AND IT
REMAINS VERY HARD TO DISTINGUISH ANY SNOWFLAKES FROM RAIN ON
AREA WEBCAMS. IT IS COLDER JUST WEST OF THIS FA INTO WFO BIS'S
AREA, WHERE WEBCAMS AND OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW SNOW MIXING IN.
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF A FEW FLAKES ARE FLYING IN THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN AND UP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, BUT THERE IS
JUST NO VERIFIABLE GROUND TRUTH AT THIS HOUR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
..SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MEANDERING THROUGH THE FA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT PRECIPITATION. IT IS HARD TO TELL
ON AREA WEBCAMS IF IT IS RAIN OR SNOW FALLING, BUT TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE WARM ENOUGH THAT MOST AREAS ARE LIKELY SEEING RAIN.
UPSTREAM, RIDGING IS EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHWESTERN US. AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THIS RIDGE WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD, BRINGING
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ON SUNDAY. WITH
THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES COMES BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS. WINDS WILL
CHANGE BACK TO THE WEST NORTHWEST BY MONDAY AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA USHERS IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WORK WEEK.
ZONAL FLOW WILL SET UP FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE WE WILL BE IN RELATION TO THE 500 MB JET. IF
THE JET IS FURTHER SOUTH, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A LITTLE MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL SET UP OVER THIS FA. ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
COIN, IF THE JET IS FURTHER NORTH, WE WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER, WITH
WHATEVER WEAK SHORTWAVES THAT ARE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW STAYING TO
OUR NORTH, KEEPING US DRY. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, TROUGHING
SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES, RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. AGAIN, ANY SHORTWAVE(S) EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW COULD
PROVIDE INSTANCES OF PRECIPITATION, BUT PREDICTABILITY IS VERY LOW
AT THIS TIME IN ANY ONE SYSTEM.
..RAIN/SNOW TODAY
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTH AND
EAST TODAY, TAKING THE BROAD AREA OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
OCCURING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IT. HOWEVER, CYCLONIC FLOW,
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, AND A LITTLE
MUCAPE WILL FOSTER POP UP SHOWERS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO
KEEP THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION AS RAIN, WITH A LITTLE LIGHT
SNOW MIXING IN AFTER DARK. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WILL MAKE FOR A A CHILLY DAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE OUT TRICK OR TREATING THIS EVENING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2025
CEILINGS ARE THE BIGGEST HEADACHE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY, IFR TO MVFR IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING, BUT THERE ARE
RANDOM POCKETS OF VFR, ONE OF WHICH HAS PERSISTED OVER KGFK
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR
MVFR STRATUS TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THE DAY AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH
IFR HANGING ON AT KDVL INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
VERY BRIEF INSTANCES OF IFR AT OTHER TERMINALS, BUT THE TIMING
AND DURATION OF THIS IS VERY UNCERTAIN. THEREFORE DID NOT PUT
IFR IN AT ANY OTHER TAF SITE. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS STRATUS, SO ADDED IN SOME PROB30S TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. THIS EVENING, CEILINGS SHOULD RISE AND WHATEVER SHOWERS
THERE ARE WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE, WITH VFR BY THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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