328
FXUS63 KFGF 271142
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
642 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RISK FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS STARTING LATE
SATURDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE.
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAT IMPACTS NEXT WEEK, INCLUDING THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOWLY MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING, BUT IS STRUGGLING TO HOLD
TOGETHER AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH AROUND
MIDDAY AS IT LIFTS INTO EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
ONCE THIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BREAK IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL IN THE FORECAST DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THESE STORMS WILL FORM IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA, THEN MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE CURRENT OUTLOOK IS LARGELY CONSISTENT
WITH PREVIOUS VERSIONS, WITH HAZARDS INCLUDING 1 INCH HAIL,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH, AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS
SOUTHEASTERN ND THROUGH NEAR ZONAL FLOW. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
SHORT LIVED, AS AN UPPER RIDGE START AMPLIFYING OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY TOMORROW. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL INCH EASTWARD DURING
THE WEEKEND, ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH. TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN EVEN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT IT
DOES LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE SOME FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. TIMING OF SHORTWAVES GETS EVEN MORE
UNCERTAIN LATER IN THE WORK WEEK, BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD
AGREEMENT ON UPPER HEIGHTS RISING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
STRONG RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
..SEVERE POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH AS FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WESTERLY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL BRING SOME SHOWER AND WEAK THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS
LOW AND CONCERN FOR SEVERE IS MINIMAL. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL
BE BRINGING MOIST, UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY, ALTHOUGH AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THE MAIN
PLUME WILL BE OVER EASTERN MT/WESTERN ND. THE MORNING SHOWERS
SHOULD HAVE BEEN GONE LONG ENOUGH FOR INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
TO INCREASING OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE EVENING, WITH UP
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND OVER 35 KTS EXPECTED. THINKING THAT
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND MOVE EAST INTO
OUR AREA AS A COMPLEX, WITH WINDS OVER 75 MPH POSSIBLE,
ALTHOUGH IF QLCS DEVELOPS CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF SPIN UP. THE
MAIN QUESTION WILL BE IF THE STORMS MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY
FURTHER EAST, OR START TO DIMINISH AS THEY APPROACH THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND MN. HREF SHOWS 40 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF
THUNDER SUNDAY MORNING, BUT SEVERE IMPACTS SUCH AS UPDRAFT
HELICITY DIMINISH AND ONLY A FEW OF THE CAM RETAIN INTENSITY
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO WILL BE A DECREASING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX SUNDAY
MORNING THAT STARTS TO PICK UP AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXACT
STORM MODE WILL DEPEND ON HOW OVERNIGHT CONVECTION EVOLVES, BUT
FOR NOW IT SEEMS ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND AN EVEN STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
COME THROUGH ON MONDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE CHANCES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY IN WESTERN MN.
..HEAT FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH UPPER HEIGHTS RISING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, THE ECMWF
EFI SHOWS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK. PROBABILITIES FROM THE NBM FOR HIGHS ABOVE 90
DEGREES ARE OVER 70 OR 80 PERCENT FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
CWA ON MONDAY, AND CHANCES ARE THAT HIGH AGAIN FOR OTHER DAYS
THAT WEEK. MAX WET BULB GLOBE VALUES ARE UP INTO THE HIGH AND
EXTREME RANGES FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK, AND THE EXTENDED
RANGE OUTLOOKS CALL FOR PLENTY OF HEAT AS WE HEAD INTO THE
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND. WILL START MESSAGING HEAT IMPACTS IN OUR
PARTNER AND PUBLIC MESSAGING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2026
VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING, WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS EARLY IN RESPONSE TO LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
PRIOR TO AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. INCLUDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST
SITES LATE THIS EVENING AS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD BRING
IMPACTS TO MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TODAY,
RANGING FROM 15-20 KNOTS SUSTAINED, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...LYNCH
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