646
FXUS63 KFGF 282319
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
619 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THIS WEEK, WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WEDNESDAY.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY,
WITH 1 INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH THE MAIN IMPACTS
EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A FEW WEAK EMBEDDED VORTS
WITH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TOP OF THE RIDGE, BUT NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN ISOLATED
SPRINKLES. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION AS IT DIGS INTO MN. THIS SHOULD HELP
PUSH A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING. SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEMS TO BE THE CONSENSUS FROM THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD BRING
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN ALONG WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
..HEAT TOMORROW
THE WARMING TREND THAT STARTED TODAY WILL CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW
AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE. EVEN WITH SOME SMOKE ALOFT, MOST
LOCATIONS EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES SHOULD GET TO 90
OR ABOVE TOMORROW. WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN DEW POINTS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S, HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD GET OVER 100 DEGREES. A BIT
DRIER AND COULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW 100 IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, BUT HREF PROBABILITIES OF GETTING
ABOVE 100 INDEX ARE OVER 60 PERCENT IN THE FARGO AREA. WET BULB
GLOBE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO ABOVE 80 DEGREES AND IN THE EXTREME
CATEGORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WENT AHEAD AND
PUT OUT A HEAT ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
..MARGINAL SEVERE RISK ON THURSDAY
MANY OF THE CAMS BREAK OUT SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE MT/ND
BORDER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN MOVE IT EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE CELLS WILL BE HOLDING
TOGETHER BY THE TIME THEY REACH FAR WESTERN BENSON COUNTY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT MANY OF THE MODEL RUNS JUST HAVE THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DECREASING IN INTENSITY. WHETHER WE GET ANY
CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW EXACTLY THE MORNING PLAYS OUT. AT THIS POINT,
THE 50TH PERCENTILE HAS 1000-2500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER ALL BUT OUR
FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS FAIRLY MID, AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS AT MOST. STILL,
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH
A MARGINAL RISK FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS BELOW 12 KNOTS
SUSTAINED WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD. FOR OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, FOG MAY DEVELOP ONCE MORE IN SOME LOCATIONS AND
POTENTIALLY BRING VISIBILITIES TO LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES,
HOWEVER THE PREDICTABILITY FOR THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME. SMOKE
MAY BRING MVFR VISIBILITIES TO ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TOMORROW,
AT LEAST CAUSING REDUCTIONS TO 6SM THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TOMORROW WITH PEAK SUSTAINED
WINDS BETWEEN 8-10 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS APPROACHING 15
KNOTS AT BEST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ008-016-
027-029-030-039.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001>004-
007.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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