981  
FXUS63 KFGF 291731  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1231 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
MILD TEMPERATURES AND REASONABLE DEWPOINTS WOULD CREATE GREAT  
CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, BUT UNFORTUNATELY AIR QUALITY  
CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE/POOR DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE MOVING IN FROM  
CANADA. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY  
FORECAST AS EXPECTED AND UNLESS THICKER SMOKE BREAKS UP IN MN WE  
MAY NOT BE FAR FROM OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS AT SOME LOCATIONS. MINOR  
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO NEAR TERM TRENDS AND TO EXPAND MENTION OF  
SMOKE INTO THE EVENING BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. WHILE LOW LEVEL  
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING IT MAY  
BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR OUT SMOKE COMPLETELY UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. AS  
WE HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS EVENTS IN JULY, I COULD SEE SMOKE  
IMPACTS CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DAYTIME  
MIXING ALLOWS SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE  
TO SCOUR OUT THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
SMOKE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST  
MN AND IN THE RRV OF ND, WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BELOW MILE  
BEING REPORTED WHERE HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS OF NEAR SURFACE SMOKE  
ARE. BESIDES AIR QUALITY ISSUES AND AVIATION IMPACTS, THE SMOKE AS  
THE POTENTIAL TO LIMIT WARMING TODAY AND WE MAY SEE HIGHS FALL  
UNDER NBM BY 2-5F BASED ON PREVIOUS SMOKE EVENTS IN JULY. I MADE  
CONSERVATIVE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WHERE THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS OF  
SMOKE ARE, AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR TEMPS.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
A BIT OF SMOKE BEING REPORTED AT A FEW SITES, BUT OTHERWISE PRETTY  
QUIET THIS MORNING. EXTENDED SMOKE MENTION A BIT FURTHER WEST FAST  
THAN WHAT WE HAD GOING AS SOME SITES ARE ALREADY REPORTING IT IN  
THE RRV. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO WHAT WE HAD GOING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH SMOKE WE GET FROM CANADA WILL BE THE  
MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD.  
 
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TODAY. THOSE  
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING SMOKE FROM ONTARIO WILDFIRES INTO  
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MN TODAY, AND HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO LOWER  
VIS A BIT ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER. THE HRRR AND CANADIAN  
SMOKE MODELS BOTH PUSH THE NEAR SURFACE SMOKE TO THE RED RIVER  
VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE MENTION WE HAVE GOING  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH  
MOVING EAST TONIGHT, AND WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTERLY  
DIRECTION TOMORROW, THERE WILL BE LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL  
SMOKE FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER, THE CANADIAN SMOKE MODEL IS HINTING  
AT SOME RECIRCULATION, SO WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT AND ADD IT LATER IF  
NEEDED.  
 
THE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION, WITH MUCH  
LOWER DEW POINTS THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH MORE  
SEASONABLE THAN LATELY, REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. ANOTHER  
FAIRLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT THANKS TO DRY DEW POINTS, ALTHOUGH  
READINGS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE WEST WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY  
WINDS START TO PICK UP. TEMPS WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID AND  
UPPER 80S FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT.  
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOSTLY  
MISS US TO THE SOUTH, BUT ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH  
SOUTHERN CANADA COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR FAR NORTHERN AND  
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MOISTURE AND THEREFORE 4CAPE VALUES ARE  
PRETTY WEAK, SO THINK THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE NOT SUPER HIGH.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET ALTHOUGH IMPACTS FROM  
CANADIAN WILDFIRES ARE POSSIBLE ON DAYS WITH NORTHERLY OR  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, A LONG STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER  
WILL PROVIDE ZERO RELIEF TO THE DRY SUMMER.  
 
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY THIS  
WEEKEND AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE NORTHWEST  
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WILL KEEP THE AREA TEMPERATURES MORE  
SEASONAL, WITH NEARLY EVERY DAY EXCEPT SATURDAY EXPERIENCING  
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S. SATURDAY WILL HAVE BREEZY, NORTHERLY  
WINDS THAT WILL HELP KEEP AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE UPPER 70S. R  
AND M CLIMATE PERCENTILES SHOW NO SIGNAL OF ANY PRECIPITATION  
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, HOWEVER M-CLIMATE H850 TEMPERATURES DO  
SHOW STRONG H850 TEMPS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT CUTTING ACROSS THE CWA  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME SORT OF WAA SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON  
DAY 7, AND CONSEQUENTLY THE NBM HAS INTRODUCED LOW POPS NEXT  
THURSDAY.  
 
SMOKE ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS NORTHERLY  
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE, WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON SEEING THE STRONGEST  
WINDS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
VARIABLE VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN  
AND SOME CEILINGS REPORTED DUE TO THICK SMOKE MOVING OUT OF  
CANADA IN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES SHOULD  
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN  
ND AND ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WITH VFR FAVORED FURTHER WEST TOWARDS  
KDVL. SMOKE MODELS SHOW VISIBILITIES IMPROVING OVERNIGHT WITH A  
SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST, BUT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS  
MAY KEEP SMOKE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING AFTER  
SUNSET WHEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15KT.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 
UPDATE...DJR  
SHORT TERM...JR  
LONG TERM...SPEICHER  
AVIATION...DJR  
 
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