871  
FXUS63 KFGF 042054  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
254 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
SHORT TERM IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL, AND PRIMARILY RELATED TO LIGHT  
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH ABOUT 6PM  
TODAY AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FLURRIES INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
AXIS OF 925-850MB WAA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE  
US/CANADA BORDER PRIMARILY FROM THE FAR NORTHERN RRV TOWARDS LAKE OF  
THE WOODS, WITH REPORTS/WEB CAMS ONLY SHOWING A LIGHT DUSTING SO FAR  
TODAY. STILL, THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF VIS 2 MILES OR LESS AT  
TIMES, AND I WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED IF A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE OF THE  
WOODS HAD A TOTAL NEAR 1" WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. CURRENT CAMS DO  
NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT COVERAGE/TIMING (WOULD  
ALREADY HAVE IT EAST OF OUR CWA). WHERE THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS  
IS MOVING IN AND DRIER WEST-NORTHWEST BL FLOW IS SPREADING EAST THIS  
IS HELPING END ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (LINING UP WELL WITH  
RADAR/OB TRENDS) AND THIS SHOULD MATCH THE IDEA OF MEASURABLE  
CHANCES ENDING BY 6PM. AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION  
MONDAY MORNING WE SEE STRONG CAA AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BRING SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES, AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY A VERY WEAK SIGNAL  
FOR SPOTTY/LIGHT QPF WITH SOME GUIDANCE. I LEFT 20 POPS IN FOR  
CONSISTENCY SAKE, CONSIDERING THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR A  
BRIEF DUSTING.  
 
AFTER RELATIVELY MILDER/ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY (CURRENTLY  
ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR SOUTH WHERE THIS IS NO SNOW COVER), THE COLD  
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS BACK DOWN IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S  
MONDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
OVERVIEW...  
 
THE MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BE EARLY TUESDAY  
MORNING GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND  
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND INTO MINNESOTA. THE PROBABILITIES ARE 50-75%  
CHANCE OF UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN 24HOURS.  
 
DISCUSSION...  
 
TUESDAY, THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND ON A BAND OF ENHANCED  
WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ALONG ITS PATH.  
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE COMBINES AREAS OF FRONTOGENSIS WITHIN THE  
BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE ENSEMBLES AND MODEL CONSENSUS PAINT  
A PROBABILITY OF 50-75% CHANCE OF SNOW UP TO AN INCH FOR MAJORITY OF  
THE CWA. SOME AREAS ALONG THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AXIS JUST SOUTH OF  
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO BELTRAMI COUNTY HAVE A 20-40% PROBABILITY  
OF UP TO 3INCHES. MINOR IMPACTS COULD BE EXPECTED FROM THIS  
SNOWFALL. THE PROBABILITY FOR BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS WILL ALSO BE A  
CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AS THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE COLD  
AIR ADVECTION COMING THROUGH LATER THAT EVENING, AREAS WITH MORE  
FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE MORE  
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. ARCTIC CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT  
INTO WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN TO ALMOST -15F OVERNIGHT.  
FARGO AND SOUTH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP NEAR -10F AND  
SLIGHTLY WARMER. THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS(25MPH)  
COULD BRING HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS OF -35F OR COLDER. THERE REMAINS  
SOME VARIABILITY IN HOW COLD TEMPS GET AND/OR HOW HIGH WINDS GET,  
THUS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (-40F) WIND  
CHILL VALUES.  
 
FROM THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY, ENSEMBLES AGREE THE ARCTIC LOW RETREATS  
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL  
BRING TEMPS BACK TOWARD AVERAGE FOR MID DECEMBER. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR  
HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BEYOND SUNDAY WITH LARGE VARIATION IN  
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN FLOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN DEC 4 2022  
 
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SHOULD REMAIN  
NORTH OF OUR TAF SITES, THOUGH A FEW FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT  
AT KTVF OR KBJI THIS AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST  
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LLWS POSSIBLE AT TIMES EARLY IN THE TAF  
PERIOD (40-45KT) AS A LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS THORUGH EASTERN ND AND  
NORTHWEST MN. SURFACE WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-  
NORTHWEST THORUGH THE TAF PERIOD (GUSTS AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE AT  
KDVL DURING THE AFTERNOON). MVFR STRATUS MAY SPREAD SOUTH LATE IN  
THE TAF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO  
SOUTHERN CANADA, MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN  
NORTHWEST MN BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...DJR  
LONG TERM...MM  
AVIATION...DJR  
 
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