574  
FXUS63 KFGF 130430  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1130 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL DEGRADE AIR QUALITY TODAY, WITH AN  
ADDITIONAL ROUND SUNDAY.  
 
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS  
MONDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, AND FLASH  
FLOODING.  
 
 
   
UPDATE  
 
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
 
SMOKE CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING. ONCE AGAIN, THERE  
WILL BE A BREAK OVERNIGHT BUT THERE WILL BE ANOTHER BATCH  
TOMORROW. QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES REGARDLESS SO NO MAJOR UPDATES  
TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
 
SMOKE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. THERE IS A BAND OF  
CLEARING THAT WILL OCCUR SOMETIME THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BUT  
EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMOKE TO COME IN AND LAST THROUGH THE DAY  
TOMORROW.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
UPPER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IS PULLING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT  
LAKES, WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP FOR TONIGHT AND  
INTO TOMORROW. THIS WILL BRING NOT MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES BUT WILL HELP SHIFT WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA DOWN INTO  
OUR AREA. FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL FOR MONDAY, WHICH WILL HELP  
DECREASE SMOKE IMPACTS BUT INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT  
PUSHES DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FALLING HEIGHTS WITH A  
BROADER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN INTO THE REGION WILL BRING SOME  
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. LOW  
PREDICTABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS VARIOUS WEAK  
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH.  
   
..SMOKE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW  
 
SAT LOOP SHOWS SOME THINNING OF THE SMOKE LAYER OVER WESTERN  
PORTION OF ND, AND THERE HAS BEEN SOME LOCATIONS WEST OF THE  
MISSOURI RIVER SEEING VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT. BOTH THE HRRR AND  
CANADIAN MODELS SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENTS TO SURFACE SMOKE  
CONCENTRATION FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER,  
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT COMING DOWN TOMORROW AND  
THERE COULD BE SOME MORE SMOKE COMING DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH  
SUBSIDENCE. EXACT TIMING OF THE BREAK IN THE SMOKE AND THEN THE  
RETURN IS UNCERTAIN, BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE UNHEALTHY TO  
VERY UNHEALTHY AIR QUALITY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.  
   
..MARGINAL SEVERE CHANCES MONDAY  
 
SOME MOISTURE RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK WILL  
HELP PROBABILITIES FOR CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG INCREASE TO  
OVER 50 PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS  
FAIRLY ROBUST AS FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL, UP TO 40 KTS. HOWEVER,  
MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHERE EXACTLY THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ENDS UP,  
WHICH MODELS HAVE ALL OVER THE PLACE. AT THIS POINT THINK THE  
SEVERE IMPACTS LOOK PRETTY ISOLATED, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO  
MONITOR.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2025  
 
THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL CONTINUE TO BE SMOKE. MVFR TO IFR  
VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.  
BRIEF BREAKS TO VFR CAN BE EXPECTED AS CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR,  
BUT FOR THE MOST PART MVFR SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY VISIBILITY.  
A FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING SHIFTING WINDS TO  
MORE NORTHWESTERLY, ENDING THE BREAK IN SMOKE AND BRINGING  
ANOTHER SWATH DOWN. WIND GUSTS BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD MAX OUT  
AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS  
DEPENDING ON SHELTERING NEAR TAF SITES (MORE FORESTED AREAS LIKE  
BJI SHOULD HAVE WINDS LOWER). WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED  
ABOVE 6 KNOTS IN THE EVENING BUT WILL DIMINISH TO MAINLY THE  
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW DOUBLE DIGITS AFTER 00Z.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...PERROUX  
DISCUSSION...JR  
AVIATION...PERROUX  
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