437
FXUS63 KFGF 051230
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXCEPTION FOR FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, BUT
PREDICTABILITY AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW BEYOND FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
LOW CLOUDS HANGING ON IN THE FAR EAST FCST AREA FROM BAUDETTE TO
PARK RAPIDS. MOVEMENT OF THE CLOUD ELEMENTS ARE NORTH-NORTHWEST
AS 925 MB WINDS BEHIND LAST EVENINGS UPPER WAVE. WINDS AT 925 MB
DO TURN MORE WESTERLY 18Z-00Z SO DO EXPECT CLEARING OF THESE LOW
CLOUDS EASTWARD. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING EASTWARD. TEMPS
WARM WESTERN EDGE OF THE RRV AND POINTS WEST WITH A WEST WIND
AND TEMPS IN THE 30S, WHILE NEAR CALM WINDS EASTERN SIDE OF THE
RRV WHERE TEMPS ARE COLDEST IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES FOR THE
UPCOMING DAY APPEAR ON TRACK WITH FORECAST AND COLD FRONT TIMING
TONIGHT HASNT CHANGED FROM 06Z MODEL DATA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
..SYNOPSIS
300-500 MB JET PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 7
DAYS. INITIALLY IN NW FLOW TO START TODAY AND LASTING INTO
SATURDAY, BEFORE TURNING MORE WESTERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
POSSIBILY SOUTHWESTERLY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. WITH THIS WILL
COME SOME WINTRY PRECIP CHANCES BUT CONFIDENCE IN ANY SYSTEM AND
TIMING IS VERY LOW.
..TODAY-FRIDAY
WARM ADVECTION TODAY SFC-850 MB WITH WESTERLY WINDS. HIGHEST 925
MB TEMPS PEAK MID TO LATE AFTN, PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN RRV WHERE ABOVE 40 TEMPS MAY OCCUR, WITH
MID-UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE, EXCEPTION BEING AREA FROM NEW ROCKFORD
TO FORMAN WHERE LOW 40S ARE LIKELY AS THEY ARE ON THE WEST EDGE
OF THE HEAVIER SNOWPACK WITH WINDS COMING OFF OF LESSER SNOW
COVER AREAS TO THE WEST. THE LOWER CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
CLEARING EASTWARD THRU NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD
CLEAR OUT OF BAUDETTE-BEMIDJ-PARK RAPIDS BY MID MORNING AT THE
LATEST. THIS WILL LEAVE AREAS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS, SO WOULD
EXPECT SOME SUNNY PERIODS TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE TEMPS DO REACH
THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN SOME LOCATIONS AND THESE VALUES ARE MID
40S GRAND FORKS TO COOPERSTOWN AND SOUTH AS WE HAVE SEEN SOME
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TEMPS IN THIS TYPE OF SFC WESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN BEFORE.
NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST MANITOBA AND
THEN NW ONTARIO AND NORTH CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING WHERE CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX EXISTS. THERE IS A COLD FRONT
TRAILING BEHIND THIS UPPER SYSTEM WITH 925 MB COLD ADVECTION
SURGING SOUTH FROM WINNIPEG TO THE BORDER BY 03Z AND THEN MOVING
SOUTHWARD QUICKLY THRU ALL AREAS BY 12Z. PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH
WINDS 06Z-15Z PERIOD WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATE PEAK WIND GUSTS IN
THE VALLEY NEAR 35 KTS. ALSO IN ADDITION TO LIGHT SNOW (DUSTING
TO HALF INCH OF SNOW) IN NW MN BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. WFO BIS INTIATED
PUTTING IN FLURRIES TONIGHT AND DID FOLLOW SUIT. BLOWING SNOW
TABLE IS INDICATING IF 2 INCH OF CURRENT SNOW COVER WHICH IS
24-48 HOURS OLD IS BLOWABLE AND ADDING IN SOME LIGHT SNOW AND
WINDS 23KT SUSTAINED AND TEMPS LOW 20S. THAT CHANCES FOR ANY
IMPACTS WOULD BE LESS THAN 5 PERCENT. WOULD NEED HIGHER
SUSTAINED WINDS CLOSER TO 30 KTS....COLDER TEMPS AND HEAVIER
SNOWFALL RATES TO GET ANY IMPACTS. SO WITH THAT WOULD PUT ANY
CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS AT 5 PERCENT.
FALLING TEMPS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING THEN LEVELING OFF
WITH TEMPS MOSTLY 5 TO 10 NORTH TO 10-20 SOUTH FRIDAY AFTN.
SKIES CLEARING OUT AND LIGHTER WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
LOWS -5 TO +8 ACROSS THE AREA WITH COLDEST AIRMASS IN NW MN.
..LONG TERM
500 MB FLOW TURNS MORE WESTERLY SUNDAY-MONDAY. THERE HAS BEEN
EVIDENCE IN ENSMEBLES OF A WAVE/SFC LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE
INTL BORFDER MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS HAS BEEN VARIABLE
MODEL TO MODEL WITH GFS A BIT MORE CONSISTENT. BUT EVEN GEFS IS
SPLIT 50/50 ON IF THERE IS ANY PRECIP THIS PERIOD AND IF SO IT
MAY BE MORE NORTH OF THE BORDER. NBM CAME IN WITH LOW POPS AND
SLIGHT CHC -SN MONDAY NIGHT. MID WEEK (WED) HAS SHOWN ALSO IN
LONG RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SOME POSSIBLE SYSTEM MOVING
NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US BUT TRACK OF THIS DEPENDENT
ON DEGREE OF TROUGHINESS AND RIDGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MOST
SCENARIOS KEEP THE RIDGE EAST A BIT FLATTER AND THUS A MORE
TRACK TOWARD NEBRASKA, IOWA REGION BUT THIS REMAINS LOW
CONFIDENCE AS TRACK DEPENDENT ON POSITION OF 500 TROUGH AND
RIDGE. THE WPC HAS A GENERIC 5-10 PCT CHANCE OF MINOR (ADVISORY)
IMPACTS MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 623 AM CST THU FEB 5 2026
BJI AREA WILL SEE CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS BUT IT WILL TAKE
TIL THE 16-18Z PERIOD TO DO SO. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
THRU THE REST OF THE AREA. WEST WINDS 10-20 KTS. COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH AND SHARP TURN TO NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT GUSTS TO 30 KTS. PUT IN SOME -SN
OVERNIGHT FOR GFK, FAR AND TVF. KEPT VSBY P6SM. EXPECT AN AREA
OF MVFR CIGS TO SPREAD SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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