311
FXUS63 KFGF 051141
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY COOL TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- NEAR CRITICAL OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
NO FURTHER UPDATES TO FCST GRIDS OR MESSAGING. UPDATED AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT OF S MANITOBA
AND INTO THE FAR NORTHERN RRV AND NW MN TONIGHT SO DID ADD A 20
POP FOR SNOW SHOWERS IN FAR NE ND AND FAR NW MN THIS MORNING
THRU 18Z. EVENING SHIFT AND UPDATED AND COORDINATED WITH BIS AND
DLH FOR A 20 POP FOR AFTERNOON RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN NORTHERN
2/3 OF THE FCST AREA. COLDEST AIR OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHS
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. -30C 500 MB TEMPS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW DROPS OVER THE NORTHERN RRV THIS
AFTERNOON. AND COLD TEMPS ALOFT COMBINED WITH 850 MB LAYER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MEAN A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS (RAIN
AND SNOW).
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE TO ADD POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS TEMPS DO
WARM A BIT AND LOW LEVELS ARE DRY, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY, WITH
A WNW WIND 8-15 KTS. PROG RH VALUES THURSDAY AFTERNOON 22 TO 27
PERCENT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
..SYNOPSIS
TWO MAIN DISTINCT FEATURES ARE PRESENT ACROSS NORTH AMERICA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN UPPER LOW IN WESTERN ONTARIO AND A LOW
OFF THE BAJA COAST WITH SPLIT JET FLOW IN BETWEEN. AS THE BAJA
LOW COMES ASHORE THE SUBTROPICAL JET BECOMES DOMINANT AND THE
UPPER LOW IN CANADA IS FINALLY PICKED UP AND EJECTED EAST ALLOW
FOR DEAMPLIFIED NW FLOW TO RETURN TO OUR REGION. THIS ALSO WILL
BRING A DOWNSLOPING AIRMASS TO THE THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING HIGH TEMPS AND A DRIER
AIRMASS INCREASING THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WITHIN THE NW
WILL LIKLEY BE A FEW SUBTLE SHORTWAVES BUT NOTHING NOTEWORTHY IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
LAPSE RATE DRIVEN STRATO-CU ARE LEADING TO HIGH PROBABILITY LOW
QPF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODERATE SPACING KEEPING THE
COVERAGE ASPECT ON THE LOWER SIDE. CONTINUING WITH THE 20-35%
POPS THIS EVENING WITH A LITTLE GRAUPEL EVEN MIXING IN ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LAST SHOWER THAT PASSED OVER THE OFFICE. QPF
STAYING UNDER 0.10" THIS AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE DISSIPATING BY
MIDNIGHT. CANT RULE OUT SOME MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY TOMORROW.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARISE
LATER THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNSLOPING AND DRY AIRMASSES OVER OUR REGION, SO
DAYS WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK
FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION MARKS WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS WHICH DO APPEAR LIKELY TO MEET THRESHOLDS OF CONCERN
FOR FIRE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH FUEL STATUS ALSO REMAINING
CRITICAL. ERC PERCENTILES ARE STILL LARGELY HIGH THOUGH HRB IS
BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO GREEN-UP SO FIRE SPREAD MAY BECOME
INHIBITED. AT THIS TIME, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
WITH ONGOING GREEN UP ACROSS THE REGION WE WILL BE PLANNING TO
START UP FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES THIS COMING WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY
STILL HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TEMPERATURES COME
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH WINDS BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS DO SUPPORT
AT LEAST A THREAT THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED DESPITE HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
NOT AS WINDY AS MONDAY, BUT STILL ANTICIPATE A STEADY NORTHWEST
WIND TODAY INTO THE 12-17 KT RANGE SUSTAINED FOR MIDDAY AND
AFTERNOON IN THE PRAIRIE LOCATIONS. LESS IN THE TREES. BROKEN
CLOUD COVER WITH BASES PREDOMINATE IN THE VFR RANGE...4000 TO
8000 FT AGL.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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