354  
FXUS63 KFGF 060351  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1051 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
-DENSE CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY  
EVENING, BRINGING POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO ALL POPULATION GROUPS.  
 
-ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.  
 
 
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 1001 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025  
 
HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED FOR THE MOST PART WITH NO  
MORE LIGHTNING IN THE LAST 30 MINUTES. OVERALL LIGHT RAIN  
CONTINUES THROUGH 7AM BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN ENOUGH TO WET THE  
ROADS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH JUST MINOR POP UPDATES.  
 
UPDATE  
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025  
 
SHOWERS EXPANDING NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WITH SOME EMBEDDED  
OCCASIONAL THUNDER POSSIBLE. RAIN GENERALLY LIGHT WITH JUST A  
FEW HUNDREDTHS FALLING FOR MOST ALONG AND SOUTH OF I94/HWY 10.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
RIDGE IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES HELPS CREATE NW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS  
THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK. THIS ALLOWS FOR QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES TO MOVE ALONG THE  
RIDGE AND TRANSLATE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH  
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA BRINGING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND ENOUGH  
FORCING TO PRODUCE PRECIP ACROSS SD AND INTO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA  
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR AND SATELLITE HAS AN AREA OF RAIN IN  
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TRACKING ENE INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK INTO WEST CENTRAL  
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. MLCAPE IS ROUGHLY 100-200 J/KG WHICH WILL BE  
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FOR SE  
ND AND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE RAIN  
WILL EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING TOMORROW.  
 
CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS  
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING NEAR SURFACE SMOKE AT TIMES  
AFFECTING AIR QUALITY FOR ALL POPULATIONS AND VISIBILITY AT  
TIMES. OTHERWISE, WE CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH LEVEL SMOKE ACROSS THE  
AREA TODAY. FURTHER CHANCES FOR NEAR SURFACE SMOKE END OF THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS, WITH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING  
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING. MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL  
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS WILL BE TIED TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
LINGERING FORCING ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL HELP KICK OFF  
FURTHER RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE  
COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.  
 
THE RIDGE OUT TOWARD THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL START TO MOVE  
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS MID NEXT WEEK HELPING TO  
INCREASE OUR TEMPERATURES. IT WILL BE FAST MOVING AND QUICKLY  
TRANSITION US INTO WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL  
INCREASE THE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND OUR CHANCES FOR UPPER  
LEVEL SYSTEMS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WE  
MOVE INTO THE LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK.  
   
..CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE  
 
OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THERE IS A POOL OF WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT  
IS SHIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD NORTHERN MN AND NE ND THIS AFTERNOON  
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ITS TIED TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THATS ACROSS  
THE CANADIAN BORDER. NEAR SURFACE SMOKE HAS BEEN REPORTED AT TIMES  
IN PEMBINA AND LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTIES WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS  
TO A FEW MILES AT TIMES. CONDITIONS HAVE SINCE IMPROVED, BUT HRRR  
AND RAP GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH THE NEAR SURFACE SMOKE BACK INTO  
NORTHERN MN AND NE ND THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. HIGHEST  
CONCENTRATIONS LOOK TO BE IN NORTHERN MN, BUT AIR QUALITY WILL STILL  
BE IMPACTED AFFECTING ALL POPULATIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  
TOMORROW EVENING. HIGH LEVEL SMOKE IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY  
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL LINGER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MN THROUGH  
THE WEEKEND. WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH, WHICH  
WILL HELP BRING DOWN FURTHER CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE. HOW SEVERE AND  
WIDESPREAD THE SMOKE WILL BE IS LOW IN CONFIDENCE.  
   
..SEVERE THREAT  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHIFTS THROUGH CANADA AND INTO THE  
DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BRINGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT  
TO THE REGION. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WE HAVE MODEST BL MOISTURE, DEW  
POINTS IN THE 40S TO 50S, 25KTS OF SHEAR, AND MUCAPE REACHING UP TO  
2000 J/KG. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT PUTS IT IN EASTERN ND DURING THE  
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EXITING NORTHWESTERN MN BY THE LATE  
EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT TIME PERIOD. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES,  
WITH LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILES INDICATE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND  
DAMAGING WINDS THREAT. STORMS WOULD START OUT AS DISCRETE, BUT  
QUICKLY GO LINEAR ALONG THE FRONT AS ITS MOVES THROUGH. DRY LAYER IN  
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS COULD HINDER SOME OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE  
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAST THE FRONT MOVES  
THROUGH THE AREA. SLOWER PROGRESSION, THE MORE ORGANIZED THE STORMS  
CAN GET (PRODUCING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS), WHILE A  
FASTER PROGRESSION WOULD YIELD LOWER CHANCES FOR SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SEVERE WEATHER  
CHANCES AS WE PROGRESS INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2025  
 
BECOMING A LITTLE LESS CERTAIN LATELY IS SMOKE WILL MOVE FAR  
ENOUGH SOUTH TO IMPACT BJI AND TVF TONIGHT BUT OVERALL DECIDED  
THREAT WAS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE IT OUT. RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL AT  
FAR AND BJI THOUGH VIS > 6 MEANS MINIMAL IMPACTS. WINDS LIGHT  
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BECOMING SW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE  
MORNING (15Z TO 18Z) WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS IN THE DVL AREA  
OTHERWISE SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 10KTS FOR THE PERIOD.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
UPDATE...TT  
DISCUSSION...SPENDER  
AVIATION...TT  
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