877
FXUS63 KFGF 120243
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
943 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
..SYNOPSIS
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL INTRODUCE VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES, WHILE ALSO PROMOTING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
DRIVE HEAT IMPACTS FOR MULTIPLE DAYS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
THIS UPPER RIDGE WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN ENSEMBLES IN HOW THE CREST OF THE
RIDGE MAY SUPPRESS SOME. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, THIS WOULD OFFER
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS SOME RELIEF
FROM VERY HIGH HEAT AS IT IS SHUNTED FURTHER SOUTH. DETAILS IN
THIS POTENTIAL SCENARIO IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO MESOSCALE PROCESSES
THAT WOULD AUGMENT THE CREST OF THE RIDGE. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP, IT IS REASONABLE TO EXPECT THEY WOULD HOLD POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT HIGH INSTABILITY AMID HIGH HEAT
AND HUMIDITY AS WELL AS BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME INCREASED WINDS
ALOFT WITHIN THE CREST OF THE RIDGE.
ONE ASPECT THAT MAY NOT HAVE BEEN PREVIOUSLY MESSAGE IS
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER. WHILE DEW POINTS AND OVERALL HUMIDITY
WILL BE HIGH, THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR RH VALUES
INTO THE 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY
HOT TEMPERATURES, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD ENSUE. BIG
QUESTION ON FUEL STATUS, BUT GENERAL DEFICIT OF RAINFALL IN
PLACES LIKE NORTHWEST MN INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY MAY PRIME FUELS FOR UPCOMING HEAT WAVE TO BE SUSCEPTIBLE
TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED IN
NORTHWEST MN AS REQUESTED BY MINNESOTA INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER
PARTNERS.
..HEAT IMPACTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
ALL GUIDANCE DEPICTS VERY HOT TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 90S
WITHIN WEST-CENTAL MN TO MID 100S WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
THE LOCALLY HOTTER TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE VALLEY IS BOLSTERED
BY A FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING-TYPE WIND DIRECTION OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES WELL INTO MID TO UPPER
100S WITHIN THE VALLEY, EASTERN ND, AND NORTHWEST MN. HEAT
INDICES ARE ALSO DRIVEN BY SEASONABLY AVERAGE TO HIGH DEW
POINTS INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND GENERALLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL PUSH WET-
BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES INTO THE HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORIES.
ADDITIONALLY, HEAT RISK WILL BE AT LEAST MAJOR ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH SOME AREAS OF EXTREME
(ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE VALLEY). THIS IS DRIVEN BY ABNORMALLY
HIGH DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS POOR OVERNIGHT
RELIEF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S COUPLED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY.
FOR THESE REASONS, AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HEAT IMPACTS MAY EXTEND INTO TUESDAY / MID WEEK IN SOUTHEAST ND
AND WEST-CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR AN EVENTUAL DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE, ADDITIONALLY HEAT IMPACTS (AND SUBSEQUENT HEADLINES)
MAY LINGER IN THESE AREAS INTO MID WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LLWS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY HOT SUNDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S. ANOTHER ROUND OF LLWS IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE
AFTER SUNSET ON SUNDAY, BUT REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ005-006-008-009-016-017-023-024.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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