476
FXUS63 KFGF 141714
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1114 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN IS THURSDAY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT. LATE THU NIGHT/FRI AM
HAS LIKELY ADVISORY IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW, 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF WARNING IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT HEADING INTO MIDDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT 11Z. THOUGH THERE IS AN AREA OF HIGH
CLOUDS SPREADING SOUTH ALREADY IN ADVANCE OF WARM ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. OTHER THAN SOME TWEEKS TO SKY COVER NO
CHANGES NEEDED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
..SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER CONTINUES AD NASEUM WITH ARCTIC FRONT
PASSAGE TUESDAY AFTN/EVE. LITTLE TO NO SNOW WITH THE FRONT
HOWEVER. WIND GUSTS COMING DOWN NOW EARLY THIS MORNING AND SKIES
ARE MAINLY CLEAR WITH LAST CLOUD PATCH IN WEST CENTRAL MN. SFC
HIGH OVER THE AREA TODAY WITH CENTER OVER THE RRV 18Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY LATE TODAY AND THEN INCREASE TONIGHT
IN WARM ADVECTION PATTERN. WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT SNOW ANTICIPATED TO MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AND CLIP
NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN TONIGHT. SOUNDINGS WOULD SUPPORT A
CHANCE FOR WINTRY MIX ON WEST EDGE OF PRECIPITATION. ATTM THOUGH
PRECIPITATION AREA VIA HREF AND ENSEMBLES SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW IN
AREAS WHERE HIGHER CHANCES EXIST (LANGDON-TRF-BEMIDJI AND
NORTH). ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN HALF INCH.
THURSDAY WILL SEE MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. 500 MB TROUGH
UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL CANADA ADVANCES SOUTH INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN MINNESOTA THURSDAY AFTN BUT WELL SOUTH OF ANY COLD AIR
AND WELL SOUTH OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WHICH THURSDAY AFTN IS IN
NORTHEAST MANITOBA. BUT WILL SEE INCREASED LIGHT SNOW CHANCES
THURSDAY AFTN/EVE WITH MODELS HIGHLIGHTING BEST SNOW CHANCES IN
PARTS OF NW MN (TRF/BEMIDJI AREA) WHERE AN INCH OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY, BUT HIGHEST
WINDS AND BEST MIXING ARE WEST OF THE FCST AREA, WITH HIGHEST
WIND SPEEDS NOTED IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN, EASTERN MONTANA AND
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT LIKELY TO ENTER THE
ADVISORY RANGE IN OUR FORECAST AREA OF E ND THRU THURSDAY
EVENING. BUT SOMETHING TO WATCH ESP FOR DVL REGION. TEMPS IN
SNOW AREA IN MN WILL BE AROUND 30 AND WIND SPEED FCSTS 10-18KTS
SO ATTM ADVISORY IMPACTS WOULD BE LIMITED.
...MAIN PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS THURSDAY
OVERNIGHT-FRIDAY...
SFC LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH/EAST AND ALSO PRETTY
WEAK, SO SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT NOT INTENSE, LOW PRESSURE
LIKELY NEAR THUNDER BAY ONTARIO LATE THU NIGHT AND THEN LOWER
MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL BE A WELL DEFINED ARCTIC FRONT
THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AROUND 06Z
FRI AND THIS WILL DROP SOUTH THRU 12Z FRI. WITH THIS ARCTIC
FRONT LIKELY A PERIOD OF SNOW, AND SHARP COLD ADVECTION.
INGREDIENTS PRESENT FOR POTENTIAL BAND OF BRIEF INTENSE SNOW
WITH ARCTIC FRONT AS IT DROPS SOUTH THRU E ND AND NW MN. 09Z TO
18Z FRI PERIOD WILL SEE HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL WITH SOUNDINGS
FROM NAM INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR 45 KT GUSTS AT THE SFC WITH IN
THE RRV. 925 MB WINDS WITHIN THE RRV 40-45 KTS CENTERED AROUND
12Z FRI. SNOWFALL 06Z-18Z FRI AND COVEARGE OF SNOW SHOWERS AND
INTENSITY OF THEM WILL PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN VISIBILITY IMPACTS
(ADVISORY VS WARNING). SNOWFALL THIS PERIOD IN GRIDS ARE IN THE
0.5 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. THIS WOULD BE BLOWABLE SNOW, NOW HOW MUCH
MAY FALL PRIOR TO 06Z FRI WOULD DETERMINE ANY ADDITIONAL
BLOWABLE SNOW. SO SCENARIOS RANGE FROM ADVISORY IMPACTS DUE TO
GUSTY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD 1/2SM TO 1SM VSBY TO LOCALLY/BRIEF
1/4SM VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. HOW LONG THESE VERY LOW
VSBYS WILL LAST IS THE MAIN UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. WIND DIRECTION
FROM 330 DEGREES WOULD FAVOR LOWEST VSBYS IN THE EASTERN RRV
SECTION FROM HALLOCK THRU CROOKSTON TO FERGUS FALLS.
CLIPPER SYSTEM DOES LOOK TO PASS THRU EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
DIFFERENCES FROM A GLANCING BLOW AND WEAK TO ACTUAL LOW AND SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW. ECMWF BEING THE STRONGEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST WED JAN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY INCREASING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING, WITH CEILINGS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN. WINDS WILL
STAY LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH HEADING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE PRIOR TO 12Z, THEN PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THE DAY ON
THURSDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...LYNCH
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