927
FXUS63 KFGF 050432
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES DROPPING BELOW 36 DEGREES WILL BRING AREAS OF
FROST TO PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES, AND THAT PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF OUR COUNTIES, WITH A DRY PERIOD
EXPECTED. AFTER TOMORROW MORNING, TEMPS WILL BE ON A GENERAL
WARMING TREND AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS FURTHER EAST AND HEIGHTS
RISE. A BIT OF A WEAK COLD FRONT MID-WEEK, BUT WARMING BACK UP
AGAIN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TRY TO BRING OUT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SOME PRECIP ON SUNDAY, BUT UNCERTAINTY IN
THAT PATTERN CHANGE IS STILL HIGH.
..FROSTY TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER FROM THE
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO NORTHEASTERN MN
WILL ALSO SHIFT EASTWARD, ALTHOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME MORE CIRRUS COMING IN FROM THE WEST TOWARDS MORNING. BEST
CHANCES OF TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT BELOW 36 DEGREES ARE IN THE LAKE
OF THE WOOD REGION AND IN WEST CENTRAL MN. NBM HAS PROBABILITIES
OF GETTING BELOW 36 OF 60 TO 70 PERCENT IN SOME AREAS, BUT AT
THIS POINT 32 AND BELOW SEEMS UNLIKELY. MOST OF THAT AREA IS
BOGGY AND UNLIKELY TO HAVE IMPACTS, BUT THERE ARE SOME AREAS IN
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA THAT HAVE MORE
POPULATION. FURTHER WEST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN
ND, THERE WILL BE MORE WIND AS WINDS START TO PICK UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH PULLS AWAY. NOT COMPLETELY RULING OUT
FROST FORMATION PARTICULARLY NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER, BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE QUITE YET.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. WINDS PICK BACK UP FROM THE
SOUTHEAST MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST AND DAYTIME
GUSTS 25-28KT ARE EXPECTED DURING PEAK MIXING. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE (LESS THAN 30%) FOR PERIODIC GUSTS TO 30KT AT TAF SITES
IN EASTERN ND. A WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE MAY BRING SOME VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES TO SOUTHEAST ND/WEST CENTRAL MN MONDAY MORNING INTO
THE EARLY EVENING (WEST TO EAST PROGRESSION). AS A LOW LEVEL JET
LINGERS MONDAY EVENING OVER NORTHWEST MN, THERE COULD BE A
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ005-006-008-009-
016-017-023-024-032.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR
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