782  
FXUS63 KFGF 301905  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
205 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING  
AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS  
WITH STRONGER STORMS.  
 
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN INDEPENDENCE DAY (FRIDAY)  
INTO NEXT WEEKEND TO PARTS OF THE REGION.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025  
   
..SYNOPSIS  
 
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH H5 RIDGING  
BUILDING INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A TROUGH  
CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON,  
ALLOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY EAST  
OF THE RED RIVER. PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN RATHER BRIEF, BUT  
MODERATELY HEAVY IN LOCATIONS WHERE DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. HEADING INTO  
TUESDAY, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT  
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL  
BORDER DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER  
SHORTWAVE RAPIDLY TRAVERSES THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF H5  
RIDGING. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA LATE  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY, THE 4TH OF JULY. ANOTHER  
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM AND BRING A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THE 4TH; HOWEVER, TIMING AND  
SPATIAL EXTEND REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE. ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO  
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVES  
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE UPPER EXTENT OF A FLATTENING H5 RIDGE.  
   
..SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON  
 
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL  
LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY DAYTIME HEATING AND GOOD LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  
MID LEVEL SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED  
STORMS, WITH INSTABILITY ALSO RELATIVELY LOW, GENERALLY RANGING FROM  
900 TO 1200 J/KG OF SBCAPE. MOST OF THE OBSERVED STORMS THIS  
AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN RATHER SHORT-LIVED, AND LOW IMPACT.  
   
..CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS FROM JULY 4TH AND THE WEEKEND  
 
H5 RIDGING WORKS SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE  
LEVELS INCREASING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. MLCAPE IS  
RANGING FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG; HOWEVER, CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS  
INDICATE A SHEAR PROFILE THAT IS SLIGHTLY DISPLACED FROM THE BETTER  
FORCING ALONG THE FRONT. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT TIMING IS VERY  
UNCERTAIN, WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TRENDING A BIT SLOWER IN RECENT  
MODEL RUNS. THIS WOULD LINE THE SHEAR UP A BIT BETTER AND BRING THE  
FRONT THROUGH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, THUS INCREASING THE CHANCE  
FOR SEVERE STORMS AS LONG AS THE CAP IS ABLE TO BREAK. THE LATER  
SCENARIO ALSO SUPPORTS SLIGHTLY LARGER MLCAPE THAT COULD EXCEED 3000  
J/KG. THE SHORTWAVE TIMING WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE POTENTIAL  
IMPACTS; HOWEVER, ALL SCENARIOS BRING A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED  
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO  
SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025  
 
MVFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT KBJI AND KTVF THIS AFTERNOON WITH  
KFAR GOING BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF THIS  
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.  
CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE LOCATION OR TIME IS SOMEWHAT LOW, BUT  
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH COVERAGE TO ALLOW A MENTION OF VCTS FOR  
SITES IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.  
 
 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...LYNCH  
AVIATION...LYNCH  
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