524  
FXUS63 KFGF 171811  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
111 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
 
WINDS ARE GETTING PRETTY GUSTY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL  
CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART, ONLY  
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.  
DID SOME RAIN CHANCE MODIFICATION INTO TONIGHT TO MATCH UP WITH  
INCOMING GUIDANCE. THIS NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT ELEVATED  
CONVECTION MAY NOT FORM UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH  
SUNRISE. OVERALL TONIGHTS THUNDER THREAT LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR IN  
TIMING AND AREA AFFECTED TO THE THUNDER THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS  
MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
 
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTO THE SOUTHERN RRV AND  
WEST-CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERALL CONVECTION IS NOT  
VERY ROBUST, HOWEVER ISOLATED PULSES OF COLDER TEMPERATURES  
WITHIN BROADER CLOUD TOPS COUPLED WITH INCREASED LIGHTNING IS  
BEING OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS INDICATES UPDRAFTS ARE  
UTILIZING SOME OF THE MODERATE INSTABILITY PRESENT WHICH CAN THEN  
HELP TRANSFER STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THUS  
THERE IS A CHANCE STRONGER CELLS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY  
WINDS TO 55 MPH, WITH LIGHTER PRECIP ALLOWING FOR GUSTS TO 30-40  
MPH. CONVECTION WILL EXIT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AROUND MIDDAY.  
 
TODAY WILL AGAIN BE WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH MUGGY  
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND  
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30S MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH. FOCUS THEN GOES  
TO A PASSING COLD FRONT AND ITS CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS  
EVENING, MAINLY AFTER 9 PM. WHILE THERE REMAINS QUESTIONS ON EXACT  
LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT, LOCATIONS THAT CURRENTLY HOLD BEST  
CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY RESIDE IN THE SOUTHERN RRV INTO WEST- CENTRAL  
AND NORTHWEST- CENTRAL MN. THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE  
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL GIVEN AN  
ENVIRONMENT COMPRISED OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LINGERING  
MODERATE INSTABILITY. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH  
THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FEEDING  
INTO STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING. ACTIVITY MOVES EAST  
DEEPER INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AWAY FROM THE AREA BY 3 AM.  
ELSEWHERE, LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SOME  
LINGERING SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST ND ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
 
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS THE 500 MB UPPER LOW WHICH WILL AFFECT THE  
AREA STARTING THU NIGHT. THU NIGHT WILL SEE 500 MB LOW OVER  
IDAHO/UTAH WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM FAR WESTERN MANITOBA INTO  
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY WARM  
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER EASTERN ND AND WITH LOW  
LEVEL JET SETTING UP FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.  
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND  
THU EVENING AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST THU OVERNIGHT. RISK IS HEAVY  
RAINFALL AS WPC INDICATES PWATS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM  
NORMAL.  
 
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE FRONT MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH  
LIKELY WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND T-STORMS MOVING ALONG IT.  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE RRV FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS  
PERIOD IS THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION AS  
40 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN AND A 500 MB IMPULSE MOVES NORTHEAST  
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE HEAVY RAIN IS A  
THREAT.  
 
THE FRONT WILL MOVE MORE INTO MINNESOTA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE  
500 MB LOW/VORT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY  
GIVING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019  
 
WITH DIURNAL HEATING, AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED FROM  
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ALSO, AREAS  
OF THICKER CLOUDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED WITH  
MORNING CONVECTION HAVE CONTINUED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GFK,  
BJI, AND TVF HAVE ALL BEEN SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH  
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO, GUSTY  
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SEEN WITH SOME AREAS GUSTING TO OVER 25  
KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE NEAR SUNSET WITH WINDS TO 40 KNOTS  
OR MORE AT 2,000 FEET AGL PERSISTING. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN  
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING IS VCTS AT BJI AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS  
TO 30 KNOTS OR MORE.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...GODON/WASILEWSKI  
SHORT TERM...CJ  
LONG TERM...RIDDLE  
AVIATION...GODON/WASILEWSKI  
 
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