999
FXUS63 KFGF 061446
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
846 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK BUT
PREDICTABILITY AND CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW BEYOND FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 846 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO DROP AS GUSTS ARE NO LONGER
TOPPING 40 MPH AND SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ONLY AS HIGH AS 20 MPH OR
SO. WINDS STILL BREEZY THE NEXT FEW HOURS GUSTING NEAR 30 MPH
WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH NOON BUT OTHERWISE TRANQUIL
AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
..SYNOPSIS
500 MB FLOW IS NORTH-NORTHWEST CURRENTLY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR MOVING IN, BUT THIS WILL BE BRIEF WITH 500 MB FLOW
MORE WESTERLY AS WE HEAD INTO SUNDAY AND INTO MID NEXT WEEK. THE
IDEA OF SOUTHWEST 500 MB FLOW INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SEEMS TO
BE SQUASHED AT THE PRESENT TIME AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS
DIVING INTO A DEVELOPING WESTERN US TROUGH AND DROPS VERY FAR
SOUTH AND ALMOST CUTS OFF AN UPPER LOW IN NW MEXICO. THUS MORE
OF A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NEXT WEEK. SOME WEAK SHORT WAVES BUT
THE IDEA OF A STRONGER MID WEEK SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE MUCH LESS OF
A THREAT.
AFTER TODAY'S COLD SHOT, WARMER AIR MOVES EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AND ALL AREAS SUNDAY THOUGH WINDS MORE
SOUTH VS THE OFTEN MORE FAVORABLY WEST DIRECTION NEEDED FOR
WARMTH.
THERE IS A SHORT WAVE LIKELY MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
CANADIAN PRAIRIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH PRECIP
CHANCES NORTH OF THE BORDER. HINTS, ESP FROM CANADIAN GEM,
INDICATE A WEAK SHORT WAVE ALSO MOVING EAST THRU SOUTH DAKOTA
INTO SOUTHERN MN WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THESE ARE
SHOWN IN THE LONG TERM GRIDS WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. DRY NOW IN THE LONG TERM
FCST WED TO FRI. TEMPS LOOK TO RUN A BIT ABOVE AVERAGE MONDAY-
FRIDAY PERIOD, BUT NOTHING OUTRAGEOUS WITH HIGHS MOST DAYS LOW
20S TO LOW-MID 30S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
..GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING
COLD FRONT WITH A WIND SHIFT TO DUE NORTH (360 DEGREES) IS
NEARING WAHPETON TO DETROIT LAKES REGION AT 09Z. WIND GUSTS
BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT ARE 35-38KT WITHIN THE VALLEY, AND THIS
FOLLOWS WHAT WAS SHOWN IN THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR KGFK AND
KFAR WITH A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF PEAK WIND GUSTS MAXED OUT AROUND
38 KTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MID RRV HAVING MOVED
INTO FARGO IN THE PAST HOUR AND WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN VALLEY TOWARD 12Z. WINDS FAR FROM THE NORTHERN VALLEY
INTO WINNIPEG ARE SHOWING GUSTS HAVE TAMED DOWN A BIT. WILL
MAINTAIN THE WIND ADVISORY AS IS FOR RIGHT NOW AS WITHIN THE
ADVISORY AREA THERE ARE MORE THAN A COUPLE AREAS WITH WIND GUSTS
45-47 MPH. SUSTAINED WINDS AT TIMES 30-32 MPH. SO WIND ADVISORY
IS OUT AND IS WARRANTED. WILL WATCH THESE STRONGER WINDS THOUGH
EXIT THE AREA TO THE SOUTH THRU 15Z...SO LIKELY CAN END
ADVISORY FOR SOME A BIT EARLY. ONE NEGATIVE TO GETTING HIGHER
WINDS IS SFC COLD AIR ADVECTION NOT INCREDIBLY STRONG WITH MORE
OF A GENTLE COOLING FROM THE MID 30S TO UPPER 20S TO LOW 20S BUT
THIS TAKES 3-4 HOURS. SO NOT GETTING AN OVERACHIEVER IN WIND
WITH THIS SYSTEM DESPITE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION DOWN THE
VALLEY.
THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED SNOW FLURRY ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS FRONT.
RADARS HAVE SHOWN SOME LIGHT RETURNS AND EVIDENCE OF A FEW HCR'S
IN THE WINNIPEG AREA EARLIER, BUT SFC VSBYS REMAINED ABOVE 10SM
AT THE WINNIPEG AIRPORT. DONT SEE ANY INTENSITY OF THESE
FLURRIES TO LIMIT VSBYS. CLEARING WILL WORK SOUTH, AND THAT IS
SHOWN IN SATELLITE WITH NOSE OF CLEARING WORKING SOUTH INTO
WINNIPEG AND ALSO NW ONTARIO IN AREA OF BEST COLD ADVECTION AND
DRIER AIR MOVING IN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST FRI FEB 6 2026
MVFR STRATOCU BEHIND OUR COLD FRONT. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
DIMINISHING GRADUALLY, WITH MAIN GUSTS OUT OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON AND THEN WINDS LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TURNING SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. QUESTIONS ON CLOUD COVER TODAY,
SOME CLEARING HOLES PRESENT IN NW MN AND WILL SEE DRIER AIR PUSH
SOUTH FROM EASTERN MANITOBA AND ONTARIO SO THE IDEA IS WE WILL
SEE INCREASED CLEARING AREAS INTO THE RRV AND NW MN THRU THE
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON, BUT WHAT DEGREE OF CLEARING IS HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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