044
FXUS63 KFGF 042355
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
555 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR WINTRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK BUT
PREDICTABILITY AND CONFIDENCE REMAIN LOW BEYOND FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARMING TO ABOVE NORMAL.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
SOME LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FAR NORTHERN
COUNTIES INTO THE RED LAKES, BUT NOT MUCH EVIDENCE STILL OF
ANYTHING REACHING THE GROUND. WILL KEEP POPS GOING, BUT IMPACTS
LOOK PRETTY MINIMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A COUPLE WEAK CLIPPERS LOOK TO MOVE THROUGH THE N/NW FLOW
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH DRY AIR ON THE WESTERN FRINGES
LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTRY MIX BOTH NIGHTS ACROSS
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. NW FLOW ALOFT THEN BEGINS TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL AS A CUTOFF LOW UNDERCUTS THE WESTERN RIDGING WITH HYBRID
LOW TYPE ACTION BECOMING MORE FAVORED OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT TRANSITION
TO A MORE TRULY SW REGIME BY MID NEXT WEEK INTRODUCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR COLORADO LOW TYPE ACTION. HOWEVER, THAT DOES STILL
SEEM TO BE THE OUTLIER SCENARIO WHEN LOOKING AT THE SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION BUT AN IMPACTFUL ONE IF IT DOES PLAY OUT.
- TONIGHT
A WEAK CLIPPER WILL WORK THROUGH THE NORTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING WITH RADAR RETURNS ALREADY BECOMING APPARENT ACROSS
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AS OF 1PM THOUGH STILL FIGHTING SOME DRY
AIR AS WE CANT FIND ANY EVIDENCE OF THINGS REACHING THE GROUND
JUST YET. STILL EXPECTING SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR EAST
FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS TO BEMIDJI WITH A FEW TENTHS OF SNOW
POSSIBLE. FURTHER WEST INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY DRY AIR IN THE
DGZ MAY FAVOR A WINTRY MIX TONIGHT AND SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW. PROBS FOR ANY ICING REMAIN BELOW
20% BUT SHOULD ANY OCCUR TRAVEL COULD BECOME SLICK QUICKLY.
- THURSDAY NIGHT
A NEAR IDENTICAL SYSTEM TO THAT OF TONIGHT BUT SLIGHTLY FURTHER
WEST WITH A WINTRY MIX FROM ROSEAU TO BEMIDJI AND NOTHING
FURTHER WEST. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPES REMAINS LOW WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW/DRIZZLE POSSIBLE BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRY
AIR IS INTRODUCED ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM. OVERALL
POTENTIAL FOR QPF > 0.01" FROM EITHER SYSTEM IS ABOUT 40% BUT
ONLY 20% FOR ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE. WONT RULE ICING OUT AS IT
LIKELY WILL HAPPEN SOMEWHERE GIVEN THE MODELED SOUNDINGS BUT
ASIDE FROM ICING BEING MORE LIKELY ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF
THE PRECIP AND SNOW FURTHER EAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHERE ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE OCCURS.
- LONG TERM
ENSEMBLES THEN WIDELY SUPPORT WAVE ACTION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGING WITH FLOW THEN SUPPORTING DEEPER
TROUGHING EMANATING OUT THE WEST BY MID NEXT WEEK. PRECIP IS
LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD BUT ENSEMBLES HAVE A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS ON AMOUNTS BOTH LIQUID AND FROZEN, GREATLY DECREASING
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THINGS UNFOLD. WHAT SEEMS HIGHER CONFIDENCE AT
THIS TIME IS GENERALLY WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH
DAILY HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S MOST DAYS AS WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS BRINGS A WARMER AIRMASS INTO PLACE. THIS
LIKELY INTRODUCES INCREASED CHANCES FOR MORE MIXED PHASE PRECIP
(HENCE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE THIS WEEKEND AND BEYOND). HOPEFULLY
AS THE CUTOFF LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT THE WESTERN RIDGE
MOVES ONSHORE AND CAN BE SAMPLED BY SOME OF THE CA/AZ UPPER AIR
SITES MODELS CAN GET A BETTER GRASP ON HOW THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND IS LIKELY TO PLAY OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST WED FEB 4 2026
CEILINGS RANGE FROM VFR TO IFR WITH THE MAJORITY OF AIRPORTS AT
MVFR. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE EVENING, WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT LATER IN THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON EXACTLY WHEN. ALL
SITES EXCEPT KBJI LOOK TO BE VFR WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER BY
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS AROUND 15 KTS FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST, THEN BACK
SOUTHWEST FOR THE ND AIRPORTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...JR
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