367
FXUS63 KFGF 111136
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA.
- SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S
THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
THE SEVERE STORM COMPLEX NEVER DID FORM IN SOUTH DAKOTA.
STARTING OFF WITH PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS OR STRATOCU AROUND THE
AREA WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. FOR TODAY NOT LOOKING AT MUCH
AND WILL NEED TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS TO SOUTHWEST OR SOUTH CENTRAL
ND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF STORMS DO FIRE IN THOSE
AREAS THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW OF THESE STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS MAY CLIP FAR SOUTHEAST ND OVERNIGHT. BUT INSTABILITY
WISE WILL STILL FAVOR THAT ZONE FROM SW ND THRU SD INTO IOWA
TONIGHT. SO THE THREAT FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IN SE ND
OVERNIGHT IS CONDITIONAL AND THEY WOULDNT JUST FORM OVER THE
AREA BUT NEED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
THERE IS STILL A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT SOUTH OF US HWY 2.
RAIN UNDER CURRENT LIGHTER RADAR RETURNS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH
THE GROUND DUE TO LINGERING RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS.
WHILE NOT LIKELY, SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM BECOME ROBUST, IT WOULD
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECTING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND
LIGHT WINDS. CLOUD COVER AND JUST ENOUGH WIND SHOULD LIMIT THE
CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
..SYNOPSIS
CURRENTLY A VERY ELONGATED RIDGE EXISTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS WITH ZONAL TO WNW MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE NORTHERN CONUS. AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK RIDGING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTO
TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL AMPLIFY AT THE SAME TIME PNW TROUGHING
BEGINS TO TURN FLOW MORE ZONAL OVER US AS THE RIDGE GETS PUSHED
EAST. BY THURSDAY SW FLOW LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE WESTERN CONUS
BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE ROCKIES WITH EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES. CERTAINLY STILL DIFFERENCES REMAINING ACROSS
CLUSTERS BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WET LATE WEEK/WEEKEND LOOKS TO
BE INCREASING. THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES WOULD
MORE HEAVILY FAVOR SOUTHERN AREAS FOR A SOAKING RAIN BUT EVEN
THEN IT LOOKS TO ONLY BE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH (LOCALLY 1"
PERHAPS) FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
- SEVERE THREAT TODAY
WHILE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA ARE OUTLOOKED FOR THIS
EVENING THE MAIN RISK LOOKS TO STAY WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO
SOUTH DAKOTA AS A POTENTIAL MCS DEVELOPS AMID A SEASONABLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER CORRIDOR IN SOUTH DAKOTA. FURTHER NORTH
TOWARDS BISMARCK DEWPOINTS SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 60S THOUGH THIS WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR 2000-2500
MUCAPE COMPARED TO THE 3000-3500 FURTHER SOUTH WITH SHEAR
RELATIVELY EQUAL ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. GIVEN CLOUD LAYER SHEAR
APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 70KTS AND DCAPE IN EXCESS OF 1300
J/KG UPSCALE GROWTH SEEMS TO BE THE LIKELY STORM MODE WITH AN
INITIAL WINDOW FOR LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN
SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOULD STORMS CLIP OUR AREA THE THOUGHT IS UPSCALE
GROWTH WOULD ALREADY BE UNDERWAY AND WINDS UP TO 60MPH WOULD BE
THE PRIMARY THREAT.
- SEVERE THREAT TUESDAY
ON TUESDAY PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA ARE ONCE AGAIN
OUTLOOKED IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE PRIMARY INITIATING BOUNDARY LOOKS
TO BE MORE SO IN SOUTH DAKOTA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST
WITH NO DEFINED WAVES ALOFT FOR LARGE SCALE FORCING. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF STORMS DUE TO THE SUBTLE
NATURE OF THE FORCING BUT WITH AROUND 2000 MLCAPE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94 AND EFF SHEAR OF 40- 50KTS, ROTATING STORMS ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. PERHAPS WE SIMPLY REACH CONVECTIVE TS IN THE
MID 80S FOR SOME PLACES IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA BUT LINGERING
SMOKE ALOFT COULD CHOP A FEW DEGREES OFF OUR HEATING POTENTIAL
PREVENTING THAT AS WELL. OVERALL MARGINAL SEEMS TO BE THE RIGHT
CALL HERE WITH AN EQUAL RISK FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PING PONGS
(1.5") AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH WITH ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WILL SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY COVERAGE TODAY WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. THOUGH TO START TODAY SOME CLOUD BASES ARE RUNNING
NEAR 4000 TO 5000 FT AGL. LIGHT WINDS AGAIN ALL DAY MAINLY
NORTHEAST 4-8 KTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT. CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR T-STORM IS THERE AFTER DARK, BUT TOO FAR AWAY TO HAVE
ANY CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN ANY MENTION IN TAFS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...RIDDLE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page