454
FXUS63 KFGF 121322
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
722 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK TRACKING SYSTEM WILL BRING PREDOMINATELY RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- MULTIPLE SCENARIOS EXIST AROUND A LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM,
INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
COMBINATION WITH STRONG WINDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 722 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING. CIRRUS IS PUSHING TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST, WITH OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SEVERAL SYNOPTIC PIECES WILL WORK TOGETHER THIS WEEK TO BRING
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION. A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF CONUS WILL BE THE CENTERPIECE OF AN OMEGA
BLOCKING PATTERN. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER NORTH INTO CANADA
MIDWEEK, UPPER LEVEL FLOW EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY, AND EVENTUALLY STRAIGHT NORTHERLY. CLIPPERS WILL
RIDE THIS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FA, WITH THE STRONGEST WAVE
ARRIVING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
SHOWING THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDING ALL THE WAY NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN ALASKA! THIS WILL OPEN THE GATES FOR COLDER AIR TO
SPILL INTO THE FA FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
..FIRST CLIPPER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
A CLIPPER TRACKING QUITE A WAYS NORTH OF OUR FA ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL BRING PRECIPITATION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WAA WILL OVERSPREAD THE UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, LEAVING MANY LOCATIONS NEAR OR EVEN ABOVE FREEZING. AS A
RESULT, THIS WILL BE ANOTHER EVENT WHERE YOU HAVE TO CHECK YOUR
CALENDER TO CONFIRM ITS JANUARY, AS RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINATE PRECIPITATION TYPE. A STRONG COLD FRONT AND ITS
ASSOCIATED CAA WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH. LUCKILY, THE
PROLONGED PERIOD OF WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR
SO WILL RESULT IN THE CURRENT SNOWPACK CRUSTING OVER, GREATLY
REDUCING BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SNOW
SHOWERS ROAMING AROUND. WHILE THEY WILL BE SPORADIC IN NATURE,
SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE LIKELY WHENEVER YOU
ENCOUNTER ONE.
..STRONGER STORM SYSTEM LATE WEEK
A COMPLICATED BUT POTENTIALLY HIGHLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TO START, SHORTWAVE RIDGING
IN PLACE EARLY THURSDAY WILL BRING WAA OVER THE FA. THIS WILL INDUCE
STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS, WARMING TEMPERATURES, AND A TRANSIENT BAND
OF FRONTOGENSIS PROPAGATING FROM WEST TO EAST. AS WE GO INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, ENSEMBLES SHOW THE MAIN LOW
TRACKING STRAIGHT SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SOMEWHERE INTO MN.
SIMULTANEOUSLY , A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL BARREL DOWN ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE, WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH, ALONG WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT FALLING SNOW. THIS IS WHERE THE STATE OF
THE SNOWPACK WILL BECOME CRITICAL. IF 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW
FALLS ON THURSDAY AND TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL ENOUGH TO NOT
FORM A THICK CRUST, WIDESPREAD BLOWING SNOW AND WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS BECOME A CONCERN. MEANWHILE, IF WE GET LESS THEN TWO
INCHES OF SNOW ON THURSDAY, OR IF TEMPERATURES WARM JUST A FEW
DEGREES TOO HIGH AND A THICK CRUST IS ABLE TO FORM, VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL BE HARDER TO COME BY, AND TIED TO ONLY AREAS
WITH ACTIVELY FALLING SNOW. THEREFORE, THERE IS A WIDE RANGE IN
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS REGARDING HOW THE LATE WEEK FORECAST
EVOLVES. AT A MINIMUM, LIGHT SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE WITH SOME
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WHEN SNOW SHOWERS PASS BY DURING THE
STRONGEST WINDS ON FRIDAY. TOWARDS THE UPPER END OF THE
SPECTRUM, SNOW ON THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY MORE LIGHT FALLING SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS ON FRIDAY WOULD CREATE NEAR BLIZZARD TO
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FA. CURRENTLY,
THERE ARE MANY DETAILS TO BE IRONED OUT WITH THE FORECAST AT
THIS RANGE, SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 554 AM CST MON JAN 12 2026
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, WITH LLWS BECOMING A CONCERN
MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE CEILINGS DO NOT LOOK TO
BRING IMPACTS, PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO BRING MOSTLY RAIN, WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FAVORING TAF SITES IN NORTHWESTERN MN TO
SEE ANYTHING MEASURABLE. HOWEVER, THE SPOTTY NATURE OF THE
PRECIPITATION PRECLUDED IT FROM BEING PUT INTO THIS SET OF TAFS.
AS WE GET WITHIN THE 12 HOUR WINDOW, A TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUP
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, PARTICULARLY AT KTVF
AND KBJI. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY IN THE SECOND HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD, OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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