431
FXUS63 KFGF 151213
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
713 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
- BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS TO CHANGE START AND END
TIME OF THE WIND ADVISORY. BASED ON HRRR FORECASTS OF PEAK WINDS
THERE ARE TWO CORRIDORS. ONE IS MORE WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
SHIFT SOUTHWEST OF THE SFC LOW ORIGINATING IN THE SASKATOON AND
REGINA AREA MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU WESTERN INTO CENTRAL ND INTO
NORTH CENTRAL SD. THIS IS MORE DAYTIME TODAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
WINDS REACHING ADVISORY AFTER 18Z IN FAR WESTERN FCST AREA CANDO
TO DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY. THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS REMAIN A BIT WEST OF THIS AREA. ANOTHER CORRIDOR OF
HIGH WIND POTENTIAL WILL BE FELT DIRECTLY TO THE WEST OF THE SFC
LOW IN ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION THAT DROPS SOUTH FROM
WINNIPEG TO FARGO AFTER DARK TONIGHT. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR FARGO
AND GRAND FORKS SHOW BEST LAPSE RATES TO MIX DOWN WINDS FROM 870
MB TO BE FELT 04Z-08Z FRIDAY WHERE WINDS OF 40-45 KTS SHOULD
MIX DOWN. WIND DIRECTION DURING THIS TIME OVERNIGHT IS NORTHERLY
AND FAVORABLE FOR A PERIOD OF HIGHEST WINDS IN THE VALLEY. PUSH
OF COLD AIR ISNT INTENSE SO DONT EXPECT AN OVER ACHIEVING WIND
EVENT AT THIS TIME, AS WE MAY GET IN THE WINTER TIME IN A
SIMILAR SITUATION. WITH THE TIMING ABOVE...WENT ADVISORY 18Z TO
09Z FOR DVL REGION, KEPT IT EARLY YET IN CASE WINDS INCREASE
FAST ENOUGH. IN THE VALLEY WHERE INITIAL WINDS WILL NOT BE
ADVISORY, WENT 23Z-11Z OR 6PM TO 6 AM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S THUS FAR TODAY. UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL, BUT WILL
BE TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY EVENING. VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, MAINLY FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS PICK UP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENTS
SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH WEAK, TRANSIENT,
RIDGING BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
..BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY
SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY WITH
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40-45 MPH. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO A FAST
MOVING COLD FRONT AND STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING
CLOUD COVER, WHICH COULD LIMIT MIXING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND SLIGHTLY REDUCE THE POTENTIAL MAX WIND GUSTS. AT THIS
TIME, THE SIGNAL IS CONSISTENTLY STRONG, HOWEVER, WITH GENERALLY
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE POSSIBILITY OF ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS.
..FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA FOLLOWING
THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOWER 30S, BUT WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER. A BETTER
CHANCE OF UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 705 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A MIX BAG OF SKY CONDITIONS TODAY. THERE IS ONE AREA OF MVFR
CIGS WITH RAIN FROM BEMIDJI TO FERGUS FALLS THAT WILL MOVE OUT.
AROUND IT IS EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUDS. NOW THIS AREA OF CLOUD
COVER WILL CLEAR OUT BRIEFLY FROM THE WEST THEN MVFR CLOUD DECK
AROUND THE NEXT UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WILL
MOVE IN, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE A
FACTOR TODAY, NOT SO MUCH THIS MORNING THOUGH. COLD FRONT
PASSING THRU WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND LOOK FOR A
PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS IN KDVL MID AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AND THEN A MORE NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 35KTS OR HIGHER GFK/FAR TONIGHT. THE TRICKY PART
IS THE USUAL TIMING OF WIND SWITCHING FROM MORE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST THEN NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONT AND TIMING INCREASING
WIND SPEEDS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
NDZ008-016-027-029-030-039-049-052-053.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
MNZ001>004-007-029.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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