757
FXUS63 KFGF 110550
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK THORUGH AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE SNOWPACK, ALTHOUGH
NO HYDROLOGICAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
- THE CHANCE FOR IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER THE WEEKEND IS VERY
LOW.
- MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK MAY BRING A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION
PATTERN, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 319 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..SYNOPSIS
GENERALLY WEAK ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CURRENT DOMINATES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING INFLUENCING PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS TROUGHING ALOFT AND LINGERING WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES NEAR
LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOG MAY DEVELOP. RELATIVELY
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP RESIDES IN DEVILS LAKE BASIN
INTO THE UPPER SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
ALSO EXISTS IN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA OUTSIDE OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. SOME FOG MAY BE DENSE AT TIMES.
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK, OVERALL WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS / UPPER MIDWEST IS FORECAST AS
SPLIT FLOW REGIME DOMINATES THE MAJORITY OF MEX/CAN/CONUS.
INFLUENCE FROM UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN SOME
LOCATIONS. MORE DETAILS ON THIS BELOW.
HEADED INTO NEXT WEEK, ALL ENSEMBLE SUITES AGREE IN SOME DEGREE
OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AS
UPPER TROUGHING DIGS NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS MAY ENCOURAGE
A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN - HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY
ABOUNDS IN THIS POTENTIAL FOR OUR REGION LOCALLY. MORE DETAILS
ON THIS BELOW.
..ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES, INCLUDING WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR
SEVERAL DAYS THIS WEEK, POTENTIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK. AREAS THAT
HAVE VERY LITTLE TO NO SNOWPACK IN SOUTHEAST ND WILL LIKELY SEE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES FORECAST INTO THE 40S, POTENTIALLY BREAKING
INTO THE 50S FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AREAS STILL HOLDING ON TO A SNOWPACK IN NORTHEAST ND AND WITHIN
MN WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE, AS WELL AS SEVERAL DAYS
FORECAST ABOVE FREEZING. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE FRIDAY THOUGH
SUNDAY AS WELL.
THIS WARMTH MAY EXTEND INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
DIMINISHES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN MORE REFINED SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION OVER OUR REGION. UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES ALSO
STEMS FROM LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD FORECAST, WITH CLOUDIER
SCENARIOS KEEPING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE FREEZING MARK.
THESE SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE REMAINING
SNOWPACK, INCLUDING SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST ND SEEING A
COMPLETE DEGRADATION IN REMAINING SNOWPACK.
GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL WATER CENTER (E.G. ACCUMULATED
HEATING DEGREE DAYS) INDICATES THIS WARMTH MAY CREATE A RESPONSE
IN RIVER ICE WITHIN TRIBUTARIES OF THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER BASIN
NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGICAL
IMPACTS ANTICIPATED FROM POTENTIAL FLOODING VIA SNOWMELT -
MAINLY DUE TO A GENERAL LACK OF SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IN THE
SOUTHERN RED RIVER BASIN. STILL, SHOULD RIVER ICE START TO BREAK
UP IN SOME TRIBUTARIES, WE WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR
ICE JAM-TYPE ISSUES. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE, LOW CHANCE
SCENARIO, THOUGH.
UNCERTAINTY IN HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE TO POTENTIALLY CONTINUE
WARMTH LIMITS PREDICTABILITY DEEPER INTO NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY
IN REGARD TO POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK OR BEYOND.
..PATTERN CHANGE NEXT WEEK
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, ALL ENSEMBLE SUITES AGREE IN SOME DEGREE
OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST AS
UPPER TROUGHING DIGS NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST. THIS TYPICALLY
BRINGS A MORE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN TO THESE REGIONS.
HOWEVER, THE LOCATION, STRENGTH, AND ORIENTATION OF UPSTREAM
TROUGHING AS WELL AS DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL GREATLY INFLUENCE
HOW EVENTUAL SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION OF ENERGY/MOISTURE EMANATES
INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS GREATLY LOWERS
PREDICTABILITY IN POTENTIAL AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF
PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING ACCUMULATING SNOW, THUS LOWERS
CONFIDENCE GREATLY IN POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS.
A LARGE NUMBER OF POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS EXISTS NEXT WEEK, RANGING
FROM SEVERAL BOUTS OF QUICK MOVING WAVES AND ASSOCIATED
SNOW/RAIN/WINTRY MIX, TO VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO
MISALIGNMENT OF SYNOPTIC WAVE EJECTIONS OUT OF THE WESTERN UPPER
TROUGH.
ULTIMATELY TO SAY, WHILE THE GENERAL EXPECTED PATTERN MIGHT
PROMOTE ACTIVE PRECIPITATION, CONFIDENCE IN THIS ACTUALLY
HAPPENING IS QUITE LOW.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS SET OF TAFS COMPARED TO WHAT WAS ISSUED
AT 0Z. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN A BIT LOWER THEN EXPECTED AT KTVF AND
KBJI, WHERE IFR IS NOW FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.
TO THE WEST, KDVL AND KFAR WILL SEE FOG DEVELOP TONIGHT. HOW
LONG IT LASTS IS UNCERTAIN, SO THE EXACT STARTING AND ENDING
TIMES MAY BE SHIFTED IN FUTURE TAF AMENDMENTS/ISSUANCES. KGFK
IS GOING TO SIT ON THE EDGE OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST, WITH FOG TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THIS LEAVES KGFK IN A
TOUGH TO FORECAST LOCATION. FOR NOW, THE TAF SHOWS MVFR
CEILINGS TONIGHT. CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DROP INTO IFR, BUT
PREDICTABILITY WAS TOO LOW TO ADD ANY MENTION INTO THE TAF.
THEN, IF FOG WORKS INTO KGFK, IT WOULD BE AROUND SUNRISE, SO
THE TAF ATTEMPTS TO SHOW SLIGHTLY LOWER VISIBILITY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AT ALL
TERMINALS MIDDAY WEDNESDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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