510
FXUS63 KFGF 151220
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
720 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 717 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST WEST OF RUGBY AT 09Z AND MOVING NORTHEAST.
BULK OF THE RAIN IS NORTH OF THE BORDER, BUT THERE IS AN AREA OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS MOVING THRU NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MN
PRODUCING 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH FROM DETROIT LAKES AREA NORTHEAST
TOWARD BEMIDJI. MORE DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE RRV FROM
FARGO AND NORTH WITH LAST AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING THRU DVL BASIN.
CLOUDY THIS MORNING FOR MOST AREAS WITH GRADUAL CLEARING THIS
AFTN. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO 15-30 MPH OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW REACHES WINNIPEG AREA. WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL TAKE PLACE LATE TODAY/EVENING EAST OF THE VALLEY.
AND ALONG THIS COLD FRONT SOME T-STORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN
THE WARM SECTOR EAST OF THE VALLEY IN NW/WC MINNESOTA,
ESPECIALLY IF ANY CLEARING OCCURS. DEW POINTS TODAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW 70S TODAY EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. POTENTIAL FOR
1500-2000 J/KG MU CAPE 21Z IN THE AREA FROM BEMIDJI TO WADENA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
..SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE
EAST/NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, ALONG WITH SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM. AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES THE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN
BECOMING MORE ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH FOR THIS LARGE SCALE PATTERN
TO EVOLVE GIVEN GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS/SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
.SHOWERS/STORMS INTO SATURDAY
THE STRONGEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST (MOST WIDESPREAD) RAINFALL WILL
BE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE
TRACK WILL BE WEST TO EAST ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. ALTHOUGH
SCENARIOS ARE NOT TOO WIDESPREAD, THERE STILL REMAINS MINOR
DIFFERENCES FROM ENSEMBLE MEMBER TO ENSEMBLE MEMBER REGARDING THE
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WOULD
BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR
REGION. INSTABILITY VERY WEAK TO NILL, AND DO NOT EXPECT MUCH
FOR IMPACTS OTHER THAN WHATEVER IMPACTS A WETTING RAIN MAY
BRING. TO THE SOUTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK COVERAGE WILL BE
MORE SPOTTY.
..SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH CANADA GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MULTIPLE SCENARIOS EXIST REGARDING HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE, INCLUDING
STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DECIDE ON
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY - SEVERE POTENTIAL. ML/AI GUIDANCE
INDICATE A SIGNAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY-TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 717 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
FOR TODAY STARTING OFF IFR AT MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO CEILING OR
VISIBILITY IN FOG OR DRIZZLE. MAIN QUESTION AND MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE IS FIGURING OUT THE TIMELINE OF WHEN CEILINGS WILL
IMPROVE THRU THE DAY INTO THIS EVENING. TIMING OF CIGS RISING
FROM IFR TO MVFR IN TAFS IS ROUGHLY 15Z PERIOD BUT THAT IS AN
ESTIMATE. SO LIKELY A DAY WITH PLENTY OF AMENDMENTS. NW WIND
THIS AFTERNOON IN E ND/RRV 10-20 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS 25 KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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