322
FXUS63 KFGF 300426
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1126 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY WITH A PRIMARY WIND THREAT.
- STRONG WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON
MAY LEAD TO WIND HEADLINES BEING WARRANTED.
- SCATTERED BUT LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCES FOR SEVERE THROUGH THE
LATER HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
..SYNOPSIS
RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE LONGWAVE RIDGING WILL ALLOW A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES TO PERMEATE EAST ALONG THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
THROUGH EARLY THIS COMING WORK WEEK BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE
MOISTURE TO THE REGION FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL COME SEVERE CHANCES (MAINLY SUNDAY) IN THE FORM
OF WIND AND HAIL. BEYOND THESE THREATS THE RAINS WILL CERTAINLY
BE WELCOME AND BENEFICIAL TO EASING THE WORSENING DROUGHT THOUGH
IS UNFORTUNATELY TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE FOR MANY CROPS. IT MAY
EVEN PUT A SHORT STOP TO THE ONGOING WHEAT/SUGAR BEET HARVEST.
DRY/HOT RIDGING DOES BRIEFLY RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO PREVAILING SW FLOW ALOFT INDICATING
ANOTHER WET PERIOD, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON ANY AMOUNTS OR
ASSOCIATED HAZARDS (FLOODING/SEVERE) FOR THE LATE WEEK.
- TODAY
TRENDS HAVE LARGELY BACKED OFF ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. STILL COULD SEE SOME
HAILERS ACROSS AREAS FROM BISMARCK TO JAMESTOWN BUT MOST SEVERE
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO STAY IN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. THEREFORE WONT
DIVE INTO THE FORECAST TOO MUCH FOR TONIGHT GIVEN THE LESSENING
THREAT FOR IMPACTS.
- SUNDAY
CAMS ALONG WITH MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
A SEVERE RISK ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND POSSIBLY MINNESOTA ON
SUNDAY. AS AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LOW EJECTS
EAST FROM INTERIOR WASHINGTON STATE INTO SOUTHEAST ALBERTA BY
00Z MONDAY A 60KT+ 500MB MAXIMA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE MT/ND
BORDER PROVIDING THE FORCING TO INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. INCREASING FLOW AT 850-700MB OF 30-45KTS WILL SUPPORT
ELONGATING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND MUCAPE OF 2000-3000 J/KG SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN AND EAST MOVING MCS.
WEAK LCL-EL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT COLD POOL GROWTH ALONG WITH A
RELATIVE LACK OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE PROFILE GIVEN PWATS
EXCEEDING 1.6". OVERALL THINK WINDS OF 60- 70MPH ARE ENTIRELY
LIKELY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE AT A FEW SIG GUSTS OVER 75MPH.
WHILE WIND IS AN OBVIOUS THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL MCS TORNADOES
ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, HOWEVER SBCIN APPROACHING -100 J/KG
AND 0-3KM SHEAR OF ONLY 20-25KTS INDICATE MESOVORTEX POTENTIAL
COULD BE LIMITED. HAIL, UNLESS MCS IS NOT THE DOMINANT MODE,
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO QUARTER SIZE AT MOST ONCE THE COMPLEX GETS
INTO OUR AREA. GIVEN THE MUCAPE POOL GENERALLY REMAINING ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HWY 200 WOULD THINK THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SIG
WINDS WILL REMAIN MORE ALONG THE I94 CORRIDOR BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT SEVERE (60+ MPH) WINDS ALL THE WAY TO THE INTL BORDER.
- MONDAY WIND
AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH LAKE MANITOBA AND LAKE
WINNIPEG STRONG W/SW WINDS WILL WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. EFI DOES PICK UP ON THIS NICELY WITH SOME
SHADING OVER THE 0.8 THRESHOLD THAT SEEMS TO CORRESPOND NICELY
WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR US HISTORICALLY, ANECDOTALLY
SPEAKING. GIVEN A MODEST BL DEPTH TO AROUND 800MB AND FLOW
WITHIN THAT LAYER OF 30-40KTS AND WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OVER 25KTS OR GUSTS OVER 39KTS WILL BE IN PLAY.
GIVEN RH THAT SEEMS TO WANT TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DO NOT CURRENTLY SEEM TO BE OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN BUT MAY BE SOMETHING TO DIVE INTO A LATER
TIME.
- WORK WEEK
NEAR ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AS WEAK SHORTWAVES COME THROUGH. MACHINE LEARNING
DOES INDICATE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER BUT WITH A
LARGE SPATIAL SPREAD DAY TO DAY LOWERING THE CONFIDENCE AT THE
THIS TIME IN IMPACTS. OVERALL SEASONAL MOISTURE AND INCREASED
SHEAR FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVES AMID SW FLOW DO CONCEPTUALLY
SUPPORT THE RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAINLY THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVERNIGHT DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND STRATUS. PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AROUND KBJI AND KDVL. LOOK FOR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH WINDS
INCREASING HEADING INTO SUNDAY AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD; HOWEVER, TIMING IS STILL
TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...LYNCH
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