859
FXUS63 KFGF 051854
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
154 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY BRINGS RAIN, WIND AND SNOW.
THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
..SYNOPSIS
CURRENT WATER VAPOR NICELY SHOWS THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM THAT
IMPACTED THE REGION THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS NOW OFF TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST, PROPAGATING FROM ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC. BACK IN
THE UPPER MIDWEST WE FIND OURSELVES IN NORTHWEST FLOW.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH WAVES
RIDING ALONG IT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA. THE FIRST SUCH
WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH TODAY, BRINGING BREEZIER WINDS, CAA, AND
A FEW SHOWERS. THE COOLER AIRMASS BEING DRUG SOUTHWARD WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MONDAY, KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WILL BE VERY COLD FOR EARLY APRIL, WITH LOWS NEAR 0
DEGREES IN SPOTS THAT HAVE A DEEPER SNOWPACK, PARTICULARLY IN
MN. A COMBINATION OF DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEADY
WINDS SHOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR FOG LOW THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS,
BUT POCKETS OF RADIATIONAL FOG TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT ENTIRELY
BE RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM MIDWEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER SYSTEM.
THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL FLOW STARTS TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
END THE FORECAST PERIOD. ENSEMBLES SHOW A WIDE VARIETY OF
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS BY NEXT WEEKEND. PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT
THIS TIME ABOUT HOW EVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES BEYOND
FRIDAY.
..MIDWEEK SYSTEM
WHILE A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION THIS WEEK, THE
STRONGEST WILL BE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ENSEMBLES HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A SYSTEM DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. THERE HAS
ALSO BEEN A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF AGREEMENT IN THE LOWS TRACK,
BRINGING IT ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OR SO. A TRACK SUCH AS
THIS WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER FORCING AND THUS HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AND CANADA.
SLIGHT CHANGES IN THE TRACK WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR SOUTH
PRECIPITATION OCCURS. THE CURRENT TIMING OF THE SYSTEM SHOWS
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION FALLING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL ALSO WORK AGAINST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO THE HIGH
APRIL SUN ANGLE.
WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING THROUGH OR NEAR OUR FA, A TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS. WINDS
WILL START FROM THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY, SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BY
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. OF COURSE, WHEREVER FALLING SNOW AND
WINDS OVERLAP LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL
FOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. HOWEVER, MANY FACTORS ARE WORKING AGAINST
BLOWING SNOW, INCLUDING THE WET NATURE OF ANY SNOW THAT FALLS AND
THE LIMITED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THAT ARE FORECASTED. AT THIS TIME, THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS IS LOW, ABOUT
20% FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2, AND MUCH LOWER
EVERYWHERE ELSE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN APR 5 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE OVERSPREADING TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
ALREADY OCCURING AT KGFK, KDVL AND KTVF, THEY WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KBJI AND KFAR BY MID AFTERNOON. MVFR WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY TONIGHT, THEN SLOWLY BREAK UP INTO A SCT DECK
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF CEILINGS, WINDS
ARE GUSTING OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST UP TO ABOUT 30 KNOTS AT
KDVL AND KGFK. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TO KBJI, KTVF AND KFAR AS WELL, ALBEIT
WINDS SHOULDN'T GUST QUITE AS HIGH AT THESE TERMINALS. WIND
GUSTS WILL DIE OFF TONIGHT, BUT A PERSISTENT NORTH WIND OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS WILL REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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