866
FXUS63 KFGF 132120
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
420 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL MONDAY ACROSS THE
REGION WHICH COULD IMPACT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.
- GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
MINOR WIND IMPACTS TO PARTS OF OUR AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, OFFERING AMPLE SUNSHINE, LIGHTS WINDS, AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. THESE CONDITIONS EXTEND THROUGH
TONIGHT, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WINDS FROM THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING INTO THE 30S, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FORECAST INTO THE 40S. THIS SHOULD ALSO HELP LIMIT
THE CHANCE FOR FROST, HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS
IN NORTHWEST MN NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS TO RED LAKES AREA SHOULD
WINDS STAY CALM WITH THE HELP OF DENSER TREE COVER.
STILL ON TRACK FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS MONDAY
MORNING, GENERALLY AFTER 8 AM. A STRONGER UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH TURNING CLOSED LOW MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PLUME OF
MOISTURE AND FORCING AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION TO THE
MAJORITY OF THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
GUSTY WINDS BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE WAVE. MINOR WIND IMPACTS
ARE FORECAST IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS VALID.
LOOKING INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, ENSEMBLE'S EVOLUTION OF THE
UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF UPPER RIDGING,
INDICATING AT TEMPERATURE TREND THAT MAY GRADUALLY INCREASE.
HOWEVER, THE LACK OF MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGING MEANS WE SHOULD
NOT SEE A DRASTIC INCREASED TREND IN TEMPERATURES, LIKELY
KEEPING THEM CLOSER TO AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
..HIGH CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL
ALL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE IN A LEADING PLUME OF MOISTURE
AND LIFT OVERSPREADING OUR ENTIRE REGION ON MONDAY, BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA. WITHIN THIS PLUME
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE WEAK INSTABILITY, OFFERING CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS TO PERCOLATE WITHIN THE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. WHILE
LIGHTNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS, THERE
SHOULD STILL BE LOW LEVEL OF ACTIVITY/ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
LIGHTNING. THIS SHOULD BRING AT LEAST A WETTING RAINFALL TO
MAJORITY OF THE REGION GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.2-0.7 INCHES OF
RAINFALL.
SOME GUIDANCE STILL OFFERS A SCENARIO THAT BRINGS AROUND 1
INCH OF RAINFALL. THIS WILL LIKELY BE MORE SPOTTY/ISOLATED DUE
TO CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS NEEDED, IF IT OCCURS IN OUR AREA AT ALL.
..GUSTY WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AS THE SYSTEM RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS MONDAY, IT WILL ENERGIZE
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT AS EARLY AS MONDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN ND
INTO WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MN. WITH THE HELP OF TOPOGRAPHY
AND A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT, SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING 25-40 MPH ARE FORECAST - HIGHEST WITHIN THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY. WHILE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE SCENARIO FOR ISOLATED GUSTS 40-55 MPH DURING THIS FIRST
WAVE OF GUSTY WINDS WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. IT ALSO REMAINS
UNCLEAR HOW CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITHIN RAINFALL MAY HELP
TRANSFER STRONG WINDS ALOFT TOWARD THE SURFACE.
AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
CANADA, A COLD FRONT SWEEPS WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
EVENING. THIS WILL BRING A SECOND WAVE OF GUSTY WINDS, THIS TIME
OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST, AND LIKELY TO BE A BIT STRONGER.
GUSTS 30-50 MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST, HIGHEST IN DEVILS LAKE
BASIN OF NORTHEAST ND. THIS IS WHERE A WIND ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SCENARIO WHERE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS 50-60 MPH BECOME
PRESENT AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE HELP OF DEEP
MIXING AMID THE DRY SLOT OF THE STRONG LOW. THIS COULD THEN BE
FOLLOWED BY SIMILAR GUSTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR, A HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED - ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW. LOWERED CONFIDENCE IN THIS HIGHER
IMPACT WINDS STEM FROM UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING OF THE DRY SLOT
AS WELL AS STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION/MIXING POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE FORECAST FROM LLWS, GUSTY WINDS, CEILINGS
MVFR TO IFR, AND WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING AFTER 12Z MONDAY MORNING. LLWS AT
2KFT OF 50 KT IS FORECAST FOR SITES LIKE KFAR, KGFK, AND KTVF.
WHILE NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAF, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
LIGHTNING TO OCCUR AFTER 15Z MONDAY, ACCOMPANYING SHRAS.
PRIOR TO 12Z, VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10KT ARE
FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-
007-014-015-024-026-028-054.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ
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