606
FXUS63 KFGF 162320
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
620 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARD WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHTNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY, WITH A
SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER JET TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS INTO
MINNESOTA TONIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS,
MAINLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE A
WETTING RAIN OF 0.2 INCHES TO 0.5 INCHES, HIGHEST FAVORED TO
OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN.
THE PATTERN REMAINS GENERALLY IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK
PROMOTING CONTINUED COOLER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD UPPER RIDGING INTO THE NORTH-
CENTRAL CONUS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD PROMOTE A
TREND TOWARD AVERAGE TO PERHAPS ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES,
ALONG WITH GENERAL TREND FOR INCREASING INSTABILITY INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
..SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
STRONG UPPER JET TRAVERSING THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA IS
HELPING SUPPLY STRONG DYNAMICAL LIFT FOR ASCENT. THIS FORCING
WILL UTILIZE AVAILABLE, ALTHOUGH MEAGER, MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, TONIGHT, AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
INSTABILITY IS GREATLY LACKING IN OUR REGION, PARTICULARLY AS
STRONGEST FORCING TRAVERSES OUR AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS NULLIFYING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER DESPITE THE STRONG WIND ENERGY THAT
COULD HAVE BEEN HARNESSED FOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND/OR WIND
GUSTS.
THUS, MAIN HAZARD WITH TODAY/TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY'S STORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING. THERE IS, HOWEVER, A SMALL CHANCE IN FUNNELS
OR EVEN PERHAPS A BRIEF, WEAK TORNADO GIVEN CONSOLIDATED SPIN IN
THE ATMOSPHERE AS THE STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH -
THIS POTENTIAL IS DEPENDENT UPON THE SURFACE WAVE LINGERING
LONGER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED, NEAR THE TRI-STATE AREA, INTO
THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GET STORMS TO
FORM FAVORABLY ON LINGERING BOUNDARIES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. AS THIS OCCURS, A BRIEF BREAK
IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE CEILINGS BEGIN TO FALL TO MVFR AND
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOP ONCE MORE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE AT DVL OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS
LOW. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, SURFACE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO FROM THE NORTH GENERALLY AFTER 12Z. EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING,
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE AS RAIN ENDS, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS BY LATE AFTERNOON APPROACHING 25 KNOTS IN UNSHELTERED
AREAS. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AS PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN
END, EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR FOR ALL TAF SITES, HOWEVER THIS
WILL BE CLOSE TO THE END OR JUST AFTER THE TAF PERIOD ENDS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...PERROUX
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