741
FXUS63 KFGF 232320
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
620 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
AND WIND GUSTING TO 70 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, GRADUALLY
BECOMING ZONAL OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
WORK INTO PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. UPPER FLOW
THEN BECOMES SLIGHTLY SOUTHWEST LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE AND WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS RETURN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN CHANCES LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE MINIMAL, WITH POPS INCREASING ONCE MORE
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
..ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA; HOWEVER, WITH REMNANT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ON MONDAY MORNING POTENTIALLY LINGERING, THIS COULD
SHORTEN THE WINDOW OF POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER LATE MONDAY. LOOKING
AT CAMS, THERE ARE SEVERAL POTENTIAL SCENARIOS, RANGING FROM
POTENTIAL SPLITTING SUPERCELLS, TO ELEVATED CLUSTERS. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE CONSISTENT WITH NEARLY STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES, WHICH CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS AND
HYBRID CLUSTERS. AS SUCH, A HIGH END SCENARIO SUPPORTS SUPERCELLS
DEVELOPING WEST OF THE RED RIVER DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH
HAZARDS INCLUDING WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH AND LARGE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS. A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE THAT WE HAVE LINGERING
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON, THUS DELAYING
CONVECTION UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING. THIS WOULD STILL SUPPORT WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, BUT WOULD TRANSITION INTO MAINLY AN ELEVATED
HAIL SCENARIO THAT EXTENDS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THIS
LATER SCENARIO, WE COULD SEE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING
INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2026
THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KMOT WILL PUSH
EASTWARD THIS EVENING, IMPACTING KDVL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. AT KGFK
AND KTVF, SHOWERS ARE LIKELY, BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER IS
LOWER, THEREFORE NO -TSRA MENTION AT THESE TAF SITES AT THIS
TIME. CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT WITH SHOWERS/STORMS DECREASING IN
COVERAGE MONDAY MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 14 KNOTS
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS WITHIN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY WILL PREVAIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME, PREDICTABILITY IN WHERE STORMS FORM ALONG WITH
THEIR COVERAGE PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF THEM WITHIN THE LAST FEW
HOURS OF THE TAF.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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