391
FXUS63 KFGF 202135
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
335 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ABOUT A 10 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY
IMPACTS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
..SYNOPSIS
WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO TEENS BELOW ZERO, WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS BELOW TO 20S BELOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
TO THE EAST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST HEADING INTO MONDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AT
THE 850MB LEVEL BRINGS TEMPS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING AHEAD OF
OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE. ENSEMBLES SHOW A RANGE OF SOLUTIONS, WITH MANY
KEEPING PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. A LOWER NUMBER OF SOLUTIONS BRING SNOW AND/OR A
WINTRY MIX INTO PARTS OF THE AREA, HOWEVER, WHICH COULD LEAD TO
WINTER IMPACTS. AT THIS TIME, MODEL SOUNDINGS FAVOR A WINTRY MIX,
BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. IN EITHER CASE, IT IS WORTH KEEPING AN EYE
ON AS HOLIDAY TRAVEL COULD BE IMPACTED. HEADING INTO CHRISTMAS EVE
AND CHRISTMAS DAY, A SURGE OF COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA, BUT
WILL BE REPLACED BY SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. SEVERAL SOLUTIONS BRING LIGHT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THAT TIME, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT QPF. ONCE
MORE, SOUNDINGS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE PTYPE, WITH WINTRY MIX
AND/OR SNOW POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE AREA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, WITH VERY LITTLE
AGREEMENT BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
IFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT KBJI AND KTVF, WITH BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW AT BOTH LOCATIONS. AT KDVL AND KGFK,
OCCASIONAL BLOWING SNOW IS BRINGING CREATING BRIEF VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS AS CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
IMPACT THE AREA. PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
REPORTED; HOWEVER, CURRENT OBS ARE GENERALLY VFR. KFAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A SHIFT TO THE WEST, THEN SOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page