390
FXUS63 KFGF 090435
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1135 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A FROST
ADVISORY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200 TONIGHT. SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN COLDER, WITH A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW 32 DEGREES NORTH OF I-94.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
SASKATCHEWAN DIGGING DOWN INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT.
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS HAS MOVED INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
MOST OF THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTHWEST, ALTHOUGH THE
PUSH OF TRULY COOLER AIR REMAINS UP IN CANADA. THAT FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH MOST MODEL RUNS SHOWING SOME
SHOWERS COMING WITH IT THIS EVENING. WHILE RAIN AMOUNTS AT THIS
POINT LOOK TO BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS AND HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT, SOME
ERRATIC WINDS CAN DEVELOP AS SOME OF THE RAIN EVAPORATES. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SATURDAY BEFORE
MOVING EAST ON SUNDAY. HEIGHTS RISING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL SWING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID-
WEEK, WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS STARTING TO DIVERGE FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. SIGNAL IN ENSEMBLES FOR TEMPERATURES BACK UP ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES, BUT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF PRECIPITATION IS
UNKNOWN.
..RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING
MUCH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY DOWN INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND AND WEST
CENTRAL MN IS BELOW 25 PERCENT RH CURRENTLY, WITH SEVERAL SPOTS
NEAR THE SD BORDER LOWER THAN 20 PERCENT. WINDS ARE AROUND 25
MPH IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND 20 MPH OUTSIDE OF IT, WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WINDY CONDITIONS INTO THE EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT COMES DOWN, ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL BE
STARTING TO COME UP BY THAT POINT. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP THE
EXPIRATION TIME OF 01Z BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. A BIT
COOLER WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH VALUES OVER 30 PERCENT FOR
TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR A TIME, BUT OVERALL THE WEEKEND
LOOKS LESS LIKE RED FLAG THEN TODAY.
..FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES
WITH MANY SPOTS PUTTING OUT PLANTS FOR MOTHER'S DAY, WE ARE
STARTING TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES STARTING THIS
WEEKEND. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 36 DEGREES
ARE 50 PERCENT AND HIGHER ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200,
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME WARMER TEMPS PROGGED FOR THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER, CONDITIONS WILL NOT
BE IDEAL FOR FROST FORMATION BUT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE OF GETTING
BELOW 36 TO PUT OUT AN ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD
COLD TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES
OF UNDER 36 ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. CHANCES
FOR UNDER 32 DEGREES ARE OVER 80 PERCENT IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN ND AND NORTHWESTERN MN, WITH SOME 30 TO 40 PERCENT
EVEN OF UNDER 28 DEGREES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE OUT
OF THE AREA BY 12Z AT THE LATEST. IMPACTS TO AVIATION WILL BE
MINIMAL WITH GENERALLY ANY MVFR CLOUD DECKS FEW OR SCATTERED.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD,
INCREASING AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW AND PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS IN NON-TREE'D AREAS MAY GET UP TO 30 KNOTS AND UP TO 20
KNOTS IN TREE'D AREAS. CLOUD COVER WILL BUILD IN AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT WILL ONCE AGAIN REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-054.
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ001-004>009-
013>017.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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