328
FXUS63 KFGF 191113
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
613 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S WEST
OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT, AND A FROST ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT. TEMPERATURES DROP AGAIN TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2026
..SYNOPSIS
LARGE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES, WITH A LEAD
SHORTWAVE STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO SD.
THIS SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
STARTING TO MOVE IN AROUND THE VALLEY CITY AREA. THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT AND THEN OFF INTO ONTARIO TOMORROW, WITH SOUTHERN
VORTICITY LOBE STILL DOWN NEAR UT AND NV. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH SHOULD HELP PUSH HIGH PRESSURE DOWN INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS RETURN QUICKLY BACK TO
THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SPLIT
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THURSDAY, BUT STARTS TO
MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A LOT OF
VARIATION IN THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INTO HOW EXACTLY THE TROUGH
COMES OUT AND IF THERE IS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SUNDAY. BLENDED
SOLUTION OF SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES RISING
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY CONTINUES TO SEEM
REASONABLE.
..RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT
CAMS AND GLOBAL MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON SHOWERS
CURRENTLY OVER THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE BULK OF
THE RAIN WILL BE EXITING OUT OF OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE FOR A WHILE AFTER. ALL BUT PORTIONS OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN HAVE HIGH PROBABILITY OF SEEING AT LEAST 0.01
OF RAIN, AND THERE IS A 50 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST
0.10 INCHES MAINLY IN SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO WESTERN MN.
..TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S TONIGHT
CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHES 850MB AND EVEN 925MB TEMPS
IN SOME AREAS DOWN BELOW 0 C TONIGHT. WHILE SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLOUDY AND THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF MIXING FROM
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, TEMPERATURES LOOK QUITE COLD BY TOMORROW
MORNING. NBM HAS PROBABILITIES 80 PERCENT AND HIGHER FOR
TEMPERATURES TO GET BELOW 36 DEGREES, AND EVEN THE LESS BULLISH
HREF HAS 40 TO 50 PERCENT. WITH THE CLOUDS AND WIND DO NOT THINK
WE WILL GET DOWN AS LOW AS THE BASE NBM HAD US, SO TWEAKED LOWS
UP A BIT. WE SHOULD STAY ABOVE 32, BUT EVEN WITH NOT MUCH ACTUAL
FROST OCCURRING THE 33 TO 36 DEGREE RANGE WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY COULD CAUSE SOME ISSUES TO SENSITIVE PLANTS. WENT AHEAD
AND MATCHED NEIGHBORS FOR A FROST ADVISORY TONIGHT. IT DOES LOOK
TO CLEAR OUT AND GO LIGHT FOR WINDS TOMORROW NIGHT, SO BETTER
CHANCES FOR FREEZE AND FROST LOOK LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AS
CEILINGS SLOWLY LIFT AND SKIES EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUT TOWARDS THE
EVENING. EXPECT GENERALLY IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE FOR ALL TAF SITES, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES AT GFK/TVF/BJI FOR MORE SUSTAINED PRECIPITATION.
THIS WILL BRING VISIBILITIES TO 1-4SM AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY
THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CLOUD COVER BECOMING LOWER AND CEILINGS GRADUALLY LIFTING.
HOWEVER, CLOUD DECKS REMAIN EXPECTED TO AT LEAST BE BELOW 5000
FEET THROUGH 00Z. CLEAR SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SETTLE IN TOWARDS
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH GUST
POTENTIAL INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS, PARTICULARLY
IN AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN. THESE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOWARDS
00Z AND BECOME GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
015-024-026-028-029-038-049-052-054.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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