426
FXUS63 KFGF 230245
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
945 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS, GUSTY WINDS TO 60
MPH, AND PERHAPS A FEW BRIEF, WEAK TORNADOES.
- GROWING SIGNAL FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGH RESIDES IN SOUTHERN SK/AB, WITH ONE OR MORE
EMBEDDED MID LEVEL IMPULSES OVER MT AND WESTERN DAKOTAS CAN BE
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE EASTWARD BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE
IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A WETTING RAIN OF QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS, SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE UP TO 1
INCH OF RAINFALL (STILL RELATIVELY FAVORED TO OCCUR IN
NORTHEAST ND) BY END OF TUESDAY. MOST LOCATIONS WILL RECEIVE
THIS RAINFALL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. MAIN HAZARD
WITH STORMS OVERNIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE LIGHTNING, WITH
EXPECTATION OF STORMS TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.
THERE IS, HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MORE DETAILS ON THIS CAN BE FOUND
BELOW.
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE SLOWLY EAST LATE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH WEDNESDAY STILL HOLDING CHANCE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS ALONG WITH CONTINUED BELOW AVERAGE (YET
MILD) TEMPERATURES.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE IN UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AND SOUTHERN CAN LATE IN THE WORK WEEK,
PROMOTING A RETURN TOWARD AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGING
ALSO PROMOTES MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE AND
FORCING ATTEMPTING TO PUSH INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST,
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THIS OCCURRENCE.
ENSEMBLE'S AGREEMENT IN THE UPPER RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
IS ACCOMPANIED BY EQUALLY AGREED UPON UPPER TROUGHING IN THE
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN BC. ENSEMBLES ALSO AGREE IN MIGRATING
THIS UPPER TROUGH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES. THIS WILL PROMOTE INCREASING MOISTURE, INSTABILITY,
AND FORCING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS INCLUDES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
MORE DETAILS ON THIS SEVERE POTENTIAL FOUND BELOW.
..SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS ARE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS, GUSTY WINDS, AND PERHAPS A FEW
BRIEF, WEAK TORNADOES.
WHILE THERE WERE PREVIOUS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO HELP FUEL THUNDERSTORMS,
MOST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY TO BE PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO HARNESS -
GENERALLY 500-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. WHILE MOISTURE WILL BE
RELATIVELY MEAGER, THE COMBINATION OF DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S BENEATH SEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-15C
AT 500 MB) AS WELL AS STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMID DAY TIME
HEATING (7-9 C/KM IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AGL) SHOULD PROVE
SUFFICIENT MIXTURE TO FUEL THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS IS AMID SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO HELP ORGANIZE THUNDERSTORMS -
GENERALLY 25-40 KT OF SHEAR. WHILE THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
CLOUD BARING COLUMN IS COMPOSED OF GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS, WINDS
INCREASE MARKEDLY IN THE MID TO UPPER PORTIONS. ADDITIONALLY,
WIND SHEAR IS ORIENTED UNIDIRECTIONALLY WEST TO EAST PROMOTING
SPLITTING STORMS AND SUBSEQUENT SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
(ALBEIT LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS). THIS SHEAR IS ALSO GENERALLY
PERPENDICULAR TO A NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE FRONT PROGGED TO BE
WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN. THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE GENERALLY DISCRETE STORM MODE WHEN CONSIDERING DEGREE OF
FORCING AS WELL.
GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS AMID MEAGER
MOISTURE, HAIL IS AT THE FOREFRONT OF HAZARDS - POTENTIALLY TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS. WHILE NOT LIKELY TO BE WIDESPREAD,
THERE IS RELATIVELY LOW BUT PRESENT THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS
TOUCHING 60 MPH.
THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF, WEAK TORNADOES. THIS TYPE OF
SET UP IS SIMILAR TO LAST FRIDAY'S TORNADIC ENVIRONMENT IN
MINNESOTA THAT RESULTED IN FUNNEL CLOUDS AND AT LEAST ONE WEAK
TORNADO. SHOULD STORMS ANCHOR THEMSELVES ON A SURFACE FRONT
WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN, STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY ALONG THE FRONT
COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SPIN AND STRETCHING TO PRODUCE BRIEF, WEAK
TORNADOES. THIS IS BACKED BY AI GUIDANCE LIKE NADOCAST AND STORM
NET SHOWING LOW BUT PRESENT TORNADO PROBABILITIES IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, SEVERITY OF STORMS SHOULD
DECREASE AROUND SUNSET (BETWEEN 7-10 PM).
..WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SEVERE POTENTIAL
THE CHANCE FOR SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS TYPICAL FOR PRODUCING
SEVERE STORMS IN OUR REGION CONTINUES TO INCREASE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, MORE REFINED AND IMPORTANT
DETAILS THAT WOULD DICTATE COVERAGE AND SEVERITY OF STORMS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THIS PERIOD TOWARD THE END OF THE
PREDICTABILITY HORIZON.
SYNOPTIC INGREDIENTS INCLUDE A PRECEDING PERIOD FOR MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY RETURNING INTO OUR AREA AHEAD OF A SYNOPTIC
UPPER TROUGH AND ATTENDANT MID LEVEL JET MAX EJECTING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
SEVERAL AI GUIDANCE ALSO REVEAL THIS SIGNAL OF SEVERE POTENTIAL
AS WELL. THIS INCLUDES SOME MORE ROBUST SIGNALS ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY THAT KEEP WIDESPREAD AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE POTENTIAL
ON THE TABLE. BACKING THESE SIGNALS IS THE SPEED AT WHICH THE
UPPER JET MAX TRAVERSES THROUGH OUR REGION, THE ORIENTATION OF
THIS JET INTO THE GEOMETRY OF THE WARM SECTOR (ALTHOUGH THIS
ASPECT IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION), AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY (POSSIBLY VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS).
IN GENERAL OUR LOCAL WINDOW OF POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS
PERIOD STARTS AS EARLY AS LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY, AND
POTENTIALLY EXTENDING THROUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2026
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE FORECASTED, COMING IN WAVES OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. FIRST, A BAND OF RAIN (AND EMBEDDED THUNDER) WILL
OCCUR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, EVENTUALLY IMPACTING ALL
TERMINALS. THUS, ADDED IN A SPATTERING OF TEMPOS AND PROB30S
FOR -TSRA, AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THUNDER TO
OCCUR AT LEAST OCCASIONALLY AT ALL TERMINALS, FIRST AT KDVL,
SPREADING EASTWARD TUESDAY MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS WAVE OF RAIN, WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR A FEW
POCKETS OF IFR AS WELL. IF PREDICTABILITY INCREASES IN IFR, THIS
TOO COULD BE INCLUDED IN THE TEMPO GROUPS OF LATER TAF
ITERATIONS. RAIN WILL PUSH EASTWARD BY MIDDAY, LEAVING ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KBJI DRY. ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS FORECASTED TO OCCUR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SPOTTY ACTIVITY NECESSITATED THE ADDITION OF PROB30S FOR -TSRA
INTO THE TAF AT KDVL AND KGFK, HIGHLIGHTING THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN AT KTVF
IN THE FUTURE AS WELL. GUIDANCE SHOWS CLOUD COVER BREAKING UP A
BIT INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT MOST TERMINALS. CLOUD BASES WILL
BOUNCE ON THE EDGE OF MVFR/VFR, AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN IF
A PERSISTENT CEILING ACTUALLY DEVELOPS. THEREFORE, KEPT SCT INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH BASES RIGHT ABOVE MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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