994
FXUS63 KFGF 022337
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
637 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL
SIZE AND WINDS UP TO 75 MPH.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY IMPACT OUTDOOR EVENTS
THROUGH JULY 4TH. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, BUT
THREATS WILL GENERALLY BE LIMITED TO HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
..SYNOPSIS
OVERALL THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FAIRLY DIFFUSE WITH VERY WEAK
500MB WINDS. FAIRLY BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGHING OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS CONTRIBUTING TO FREQUENT SHORTWAVES
BRINGING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
LARGELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FREQUENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVING SAID THAT, FLOW ALOFT IS VERY
LIMITED AND DOESN'T APPEAR LIKELY TO BE STRENGTHENING ANY TIME
SOON, SO THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY STEADY STATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BE DISPLACED A BIT TO OUR EAST WHERE
THE EXTREME HEAT IS ONGOING. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD THERE
ARE HINTS AT RIDGE AMPLIFICATION, WHICH COULD BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION, BUT THE SIGNAL IS VERY DIFFUSE.
..SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS
ATTEMPTING TO START ALONG A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM
WADENA COUNTY DOWN THROUGH GRANT COUNTY. THIS BOUNDARY LARGELY
IS QUASI-STATIONARY, BUT HAS SHOWN SOME ADVANCEMENTS NORTHWARD.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT 1-3
HOURS WITHIN THIS REGION. SHOULD THIS DEVELOP, HAIL SHOULD BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARD GIVEN STORM MODE.
ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA HAS
AT LEAST DELAYED THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
AREA AS REMNANT CLOUD COVER KEEPS US VERY CAPPED. STILL,
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR EXISTS ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR INITIATION. FOR
THIS REASON, CAM GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY BACKED OFF ON WIDESPREAD
SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, OR AT A MINIMUM
DELAYED THINGS. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO
WARM ENOUGH TO INDUCE SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION, BUT THIS
SCENARIO IS APPEARING LESS LIKELY. STILL, SHOULD SEVERE STORMS
FORM TODAY, GENERALLY EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELLS
INITIALLY CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING MULTI-CELLULAR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ARISING IS DIMINISHING, HOWEVER,
THE LONGER THIS WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER LINGERS AROUND.
FOR TOMORROW, THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL REMAIN VERY DIFFUSE WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON ONCE MORE.
SHEAR IS RELATIVELY WEAK, SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE VERY LIMITED
BUT STILL REMAIN A THREAT. HAIL UP TO QUARTERS AND 60 MPH WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
..4TH OF JULY FORECAST
INSTABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE 4TH OF JULY, BUT
THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN AGAIN IS VERY WEAK. DUE TO THE ONGOING
FESTIVITIES AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES FOR THE 4TH, WE DO WANT TO
NOTE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, THERE IS VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE
SCOPE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND
ON ANTECEDENT CONVECTION DROPPING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENT
ZONES. WITH THE LACK OF FLOW ALOFT AS WELL, STORMS MAY BE
STATIONARY IN SOME LOCATIONS, SO FLASH FLOODING COULDN'T BE
RULED OUT. OVERALL THIS CARRIES VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY. AT A
MINIMUM, EXPECT A 60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED. SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW
THANKS TO VERY WEAK SHEAR.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS OVER PARTS OF THE KDVL REGION DEPENDING ON
THE EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
SASKATCHEWAN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST ND AND NORTH CENTRAL MN
(CHANCES AT KDVL 10-14Z). OTHERWISE, THE MORE ORGANIZED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED WELL SOUTH OF TAF
SITES THIS EVENING IN ND/NORTHWEST MN, WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS/WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST ND DURING THE EARLY
EVENING PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...DJR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page