170
FXUS63 KFGF 251125
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN IS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A
CHANCE FOR SOAKING RAIN OF 1 INCH OR MORE IS GREATER THAN 60
PERCENT FOR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND PARTS OF MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
CLOUD COVER HAS SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. FURTHER NORTH, CLOUD COVER IS
LESS WIDESPREAD. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO THE MID 50S IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR RH TODAY AS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
CLOUD COVER WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE UPPER LIMIT OF TEMPS
THIS AFTERNOON; IF CLOUDS MOVE IN A BIT FASTER, RH WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DUE TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE NEAR THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA
BORDER, WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT. SOME
ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND STRATOCU OVER THE COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL IMPACT PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND BOOST WINDS TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT WINDS
WILL QUICKLY COME DOWN THIS EVENING. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE
TO ROTATE JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND BEFORE
STARTING TO KICK OUT INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A
FAIRLY VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO SOUTHERN MN BY
MONDAY, WITH AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO OUR AREA.
ANOTHER LOBE OF THE UPPER TROUGH COMES THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT MOST
OF THE VORTICITY AND MOISTURE LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE TRACKING TO
OUR SOUTH AT THIS POINT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR
MID TO LATE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
..NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING
OBS SHOW MANY LOCATIONS DOWN TO AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT HUMIDITY
IN PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. FURTHER NORTH
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN LOWER AND RH VALUES HAVE STAYED IN THE 30
TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. WINDS IN THE AREA OF DRIEST RH VALUES HAVE
BEEN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH FOR THE MOST
PART, WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS NEAR THE STRONGEST COLD AIR
ADVECTION IN OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SEEM CONCENTRATED MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY
200 CORRIDOR, AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET AS
TEMPERATURES START TO DROP AND WINDS DIMINISH. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A BIT HIGHER DEW POINTS. BEST CHANCES OF GETTING BELOW 25
PERCENT ARE NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS AND FUELS ARE STILL DRY, SO
WILL MONITOR IN CASE ANOTHER SPS IS NEEDED TOMORROW FOR NEAR
CRITICAL.
..RAIN LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
LEAD SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH TOMORROW MAY BRING A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS TO MAINLY SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA, BUT THERE WILL
BE QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES AND A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL IN
THE ECMWF EFI FOR WET CONDITIONS BY 00Z TUESDAY, AND EVEN SHIFT
OF TAILS SHOWS A BIT OF SNOW NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR OUR
FAR NORTHWEST. PROBABILITY OF ANY WINTER IMPACTS LOOK LOW AT
THIS POINT, SO WILL FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES. NBM HAS PROBABILITIES
OF OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH THAT PERIOD OF OVER 60 PERCENT,
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. INSTABILITY IS
MINIMAL SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH CONVECTION. MAIN IMPACTS FROM THE
RAIN SEEM AT THIS POINT TO BE MAINLY BRINGING DOWN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES. LOOK
FOR WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, THEN
DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AT KDVL AND KGFK. FOR THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WINDS CONTINUE TO FALL, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN
LATE IN THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...LYNCH
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