520
FXUS63 KFGF 222118
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
418 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, FOLLOWED
BY NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LIGHTNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..SYNOPSIS
BLOCKED UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH UPPER
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS UPPER RIDGING IS DRIVING
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S CURRENTLY OVER THE
REGION. WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW IS
UTILIZING WEAK INSTABILITY ALOFT, HELPING SPARK SCATTERED
RAIN/VIRGA SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL PREVENT
MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE GROUND, THUS ADDED
SPRINKLES TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ON FRIDAY, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR ONCE MORE
WITH WIDESPREAD 70S FORECAST DURING THE DAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILD, GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 20-40 MPH WILL ALSO BUILD
STARTING FRIDAY BY LATE MORNING, LASTING THROUGH THE DAY.
UPPER TROUGH IN THE WEST WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK EASTWARD,
ALTHOUGH ALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS WILL OCCUR IN A SPLIT-FLOW-
LIKE REGIME, WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN
NORTHERN CONUS AND CANADA SEPARATING FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH
LINGERING IN THE SOUTHWEST. AS IT DOES THIS, IT BRINGS
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT TO BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. MOST GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES AT
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ALOFT TO BRING LIGHTNING/THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE CONVERSATION. A LACK OF BETTER INSTABILITY, MOISTURE,
AND WIND SHEAR SPACING WILL MITIGATE HOW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE - LIKELY KEEPING STORMS WEAK.
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
DRIVEN BY THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THIS ENDS OUR
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING
DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY OCCUR JUST AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT, OCCURRING EARLY MORNING SATURDAY.
THIS STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BRING ADDITIONAL ROUND OF GUSTY
WINDS - THIS TIME OUT OF THE WEST. WINDS HAVE A MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCE IN REACHING ADVISORY-CRITERIA (IE SUSTAINED 30-40 MPH,
GUSTS 45-55 MPH) IN EASTERN ND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY,
WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER BUT STILL GUSTY WINDS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TURN MORE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING NEXT WEEK. AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN COMES AROUND MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS
DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN MODELED GUIDANCE REGARDING WHETHER OR
NOT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION.
AT THIS TIME, LIGHT SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY, BUT CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT SHOULD FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST GENERALLY AROUND 5-10KT BEFORE 12Z. AFTER 12Z, WINDS
INCREASE 15-25KT, GUSTING NEAR 30KT IN SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST-
CENTRAL MN, INCLUDING KFAR, PARTICULARLY LATE IN THE MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE WINDS REACH 30KT AT
KGFK AS WELL DURING THIS SAME TIMEFRAME.
VIRGA/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT IN NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN PORTIONS OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO MINNESOTA. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE THIS IN ANY TAFS AT THIS TIME (POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT).
ONE NOTE ON OBSERVATIONS AT AIRPORT SITES - REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND HZ REPORTED AT SOME TAF SITES ARE LIKELY RESULTANT FROM
NEARBY AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITY KICKING UP DUST AND DIRT. BECAUSE
OF THIS, WE ARE OPTING TO NOT INCLUDE WITHIN TAFS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page