411
FXUS63 KFGF 280400
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1000 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ON AND OFF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SOUTHEAST OF LAKE OF THE WOODS
THROUGH SATURDAY. 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR PLACES
FROM BAUDETTE TO BIG FALLS
- SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF MORE THAN 3 INCHES.
- BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
UNSURPRISINGLY THE QUITE NIGHT IS YIELDING SOME NUISANCE SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. FAIRLY
LARGE FLAKES WERE OBSERVED HERE AT THE OFFICE AS VISIBILITY AT
GFK DROPPED TO 2 MILES FOR A SHORT PERIOD BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
MAYBE A TENTH FELL. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH MOST AREAS RECEIVING A TRACE. IMPACT: FLURRY WARNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 523 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
CURRENTLY FOG OR ANYTHING LESS THAN 2SM VISIBILITY LOOKS MOST
FAVORED ACROSS THE MISSOURI COTEAU AND WEST MISSING OUR AREA.
OVERALL WOULD SAY THE CHANCE FOR FOG IS LESS THAN 10% BUT GIVEN
THE FAVORABLE FORECAST CONDITIONS (FRESH SNOWPACK, CLEAR-ISH
SKIES, AND HIGH PRESSURE) WILL KEEP IT IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW
IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
..SYNOPSIS
OVERALL, VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE NEXT
WEEK, AS A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF CANADA INFLUENCES FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IN THE SHORT TERM, A HIGH DIVING OUT OF
CANADA WILL PASS THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING CALM WINDS. COMBINED WITH
RECENT SNOWPACK, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 200 WHERE A DEEPER SNOWPACK EXISTS. THEREAFTER, OUR
FORECAST AREA, STUCK IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR REALLY THE NEXT
SEVEN DAYS, WILL SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
REINFORCING SHOTS OF COLD AIR. EACH ROUND OF COLD AIR LOOKS TO
BE A LITTLE CHILLIER THAN THE LAST, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..LAKE EFFECT SNOW
A HANDFUL OF FLURRIES OVER NORTHWESTERN MN HAVE BEEN OCCURING UNDER
THE STRATUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A VERY SMALL AREA
DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE OF THE WOODS THAT IS SEEING A BIT MORE SNOW DUE
TO LAKE EFFECT. THE MNDOT CAMERA SOUTH OF BAUDETTE HAS SHOWN
SNOW FROM TIME TO TIME WITH SOME LIMITED ACCUMULATION. WHILE THE
PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR LIGHT SNOW DOWNWIND OF THE LAKE TO
FALL IN THE SAME LOCATIONS FOR A LONG PERIOD (CONSISTENT
NORTHWEST WIND OVER THE LONGEST POSSIBLE FETCH OF THE LAKE), THE
DELTA T BETWEEN THE NOW MUCH COLDER WATER TEMPS THIS TIME OF
YEAR AND THE AIRMASS ABOVE SEEM TO BE LIMITING MORE CONSISTENT
SNOWFALL. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
WHEN WINDS FINALLY SHIFT DIRECTION, BUT THE HIGHEST
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY STAY EAST OF BAUDETTE IN KOOCHICHING.
..SNOW LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
FRIDAY MORNING, AN OPEN WAVE WILL BEGIN TRAVELING SOUTH AND
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS OF MONTANA. IN TURN, ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN
A BROAD AREA OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A SHIELD OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE DAKOTAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH
A NARROWER, HEAVIER BAND DRIVEN BY FRONTOGENSIS SETTING UP
SOMEWHERE TO THE WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, THE
NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE LIGHTER SHIELD OF SNOW WILL RESIDE IN OUR
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS, SNOWFALL RATIOS
LOOK TO BE ON LIGHT AND FLUFFY SIDE, WHICH WILL BE VERY
DIFFERENT FROM THE CEMENT LIKE SNOW CONSISTENCY WE SAW WITH THE
EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. LUCKILY, WINDS DURING THIS SYSTEM LOOK LIGHT
(UNDER 20 MPH), AND LAG THE PERIOD OF "HEAVIEST" SNOWFALL RATES.
PROBABILITIES OF 50% OR GREATER TO SEE AN INCH OF SNOW OR MORE
RUN ALONG A LINE FROM BARNES COUNTY THROUGH GRANT COUNTY MN.
PROBABILITIES FOR 3 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ARE HIGHEST IN
SARGENT COUNTY, WITH PROBABILITIES HOVERING AROUND 30%. NO
HEADLINES WERE ISSUED ON THIS SHIFT, BUT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW
SHIFTS BACK A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH, AN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED FOR A FEW OF OUR FORECAST AREAS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW SEEM LOW, HOWEVER.
..COLDER WEATHER
WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED THE PAST FEW DAYS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY, THE LARGEST DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL COME BEHIND THE SATURDAY SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON SO FAR WILL SETTLE IN TO END THE
WEEKEND AND START THE WORK WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING
ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA, BUT
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY
NIGHT, TEMPERATURES MAY MANAGE TO GET A BIT COLDER THEN WHAT IS
SHOWN RIGHT NOW. WE SHOULD MODERATE A LITTLE BIT NEXT
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS ENSEMBLES HINT AT A WAVE COMING THROUGH,
BEFORE NORTHWEST FLOW DUMPS ANOTHER CHUNK OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE TAIL END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LATE
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /04Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
MVFR UNDER THE STRATUS WITH SOME FLURRIES OCCASIONALLY DROPPING
VIS AS LOW AS 2SM. CEILINGS DONT SEEM TO WANT TO FALL BELOW 1500
ANYMORE BUT MORE TYPICALLY WILL BE 2-3K THROUGH 12Z. VFR
TOMORROW WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...TT
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