700
FXUS63 KFGF 271926
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
226 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST THIS WEEK, WITH RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS, WITH SOME
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES COMING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THE HIGHER HEIGHTS WILL PUSH FURTHER NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF A STRONGER SHORTWAVE COMING OVER TOP OF THE
RIDGE ON THURSDAY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. MANY
OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE A STRONGER TROUGH STARTING TO TRACK
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON MONDAY, BRINGING US
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, A CLUSTER OF AROUND 35
PERCENT OF THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE 588DM METER
NOSING UP INTO ND AND THE TROUGHING MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE. AT
THIS POINT, A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK
LIKE THEY WILL AT LEAST HOLD OFF UNTIL NEXT WEEK.
..HEAT WAVE CONTINUING AND RAIN CHANCES MID-WEEK
ONE OF THE WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE HAS STARTED TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
OR NEAR NORTH CENTRAL ND. SPC MESO PAGE HAS DECENT 1000 TO 1500
J/KG OF ML CAPE AND SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS, BUT WITH VERY WEAK
FORCING, AND EXTREMELY WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS, THE CELLS THAT ARE
DEVELOPING ARE STRUGGLING. CAMS HAVE THAT TREND CONTINUING WITH
THE NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE ARRIVING LATER THIS EVENING, AND THIS
SEEMS REASONABLE. OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS NBM
PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN FINALLY
RISE ABOVE 50 PERCENT. ECMWF EFI CONTINUES TO SHOW A SIGNAL FOR
HEAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
TEMPERATURES OVER 95 DEGREES ARE OVER 70 PERCENT FOR WEDNESDAY.
LIKELY WILL NEED HEAT HEADLINES OF SOME SORT AGAIN WEDNESDAY SO
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
SOME MVFR CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ALONG A BOUNDARY CLOSE TO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY, WITH SOME MVFR COVERAGE EXTENDING INTO KTVF. THAT
SHOULD SCATTER OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, ALL SITES GOING VFR
WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME HIGH LEVEL SMOKE COMING IN
FROM THE WEST. SOME LIMITED SURFACE SMOKE POSSIBLE AT KDVL BUT
AT THIS POINT KEPT VISIBILITY NO LOWER THAN 6 MILES. LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THIS EVENING, EVENTUALLY PICKING UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AT KDVL.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page