208
FXUS63 KFGF 302106
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
406 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BRIEF PERIOD OF MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTING THURSDAY INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER LOW LINGERS IN CENTRAL MB, WITH SUBSIDENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
MUCH DRIER AIR MASS AT THE SURFACE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY (SAVE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST
ND AND NORTHWEST MN CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW) TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
BREEZY WINDS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
AVERAGE IN THE 70S AND 80S.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOESN'T MIGRATE THE MB UPPER LOW EASTWARD
UNTIL AROUND THURSDAY. THIS IS WHEN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STRONGLY
SUGGESTS ONE OR MORE LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/S MOVE OUT
OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AMID BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUAL RETURN
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE DAKOTAS, LEADING TO MEDIUM
TO HIGH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE THURSDAY. AT THIS
TIME, THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
PARTICULARLY IF THEY ORGANIZE AND MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL
DAKOTAS; HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IS LOW IN EXACTLY HOW MUCH
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND WIND SHEAR WILL BE AVAILABLE TO
SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS IT ENTERS INTO EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MN.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES IN GENERALLY MEAGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT LATE THIS WEEK TURNING MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF IN THE
GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL CONTINUE DAILY CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS
MOISTURE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO OUR
AREA. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, ALTHOUGH A LACK OF MORE
ROBUST INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR LIMITS THE UPPER END OF
POTENTIAL SEVERE. OF COURSE, IMPORTANT MESOSCALE FEATURES AND
SUBSEQUENTLY UNCERTAIN CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION MARKEDLY LOWERS
PREDICTABILITY WHEN ASSESSING POTENTIAL HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.
PREVIOUS MESSAGING OF POTENTIAL HEAT IMPACTS DURING THE FOURTH
OF JULY HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
FOR MINOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS DRIVEN BY A CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
INTO THE 90S AND DEW POINTS INTO THE MID 60S TO PERHAPS 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CONFIDENTLY FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. DAYTIME CUMULUS ROOTED AROUND 5KFT ALONG WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE FORECAST. HIGH ALTITUDE CLOUDS
INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN NO FOG OVERNIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO WINDS
STAYING TOO HIGH FOR FOG.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 28KT ALSO FORECAST THROUGH 00Z,
TAPERING DOWN TO AROUND 8KT BY 03Z. WINDS INCREASE OUT 10 TO
20KT OF THE WEST BY LATE MORNING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ
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