574
FXUS63 KFGF 272040
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
340 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
THERE IS A 60-90 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 1 OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..SYNOPSIS
MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO WORK SLOWLY TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOOK FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. H5 UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, INTO AN ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTIVE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. MIXING RATIOS RANGE FROM 10-12
G/KG BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG THETA-E GRADIENT
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED AS CAPE VALUES WILL BE IN THE 300-700 J/KG RANGE. AREAS
ALONG AN AXIS FROM COOPERSTOWN TO GRAND FORKS, TO ROSEAU HAVE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR 1 OR MORE INCHES OF RAIN (80-90%), WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES ON EITHER SIDE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER,
WITH LOW 70S IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. HEADING INTO
TUESDAY, RAIN GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, WITH MINIMAL
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY ONWARD, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID
40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
CLOUD COVER HAS MOVED OUT OF MANY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
KFAR AND KTVF STILL SEEING OCCASIONAL BROKEN CLOUDS. LOOK FOR
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVERNIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 7-12 KNOTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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