780
FXUS63 KFGF 061140
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A TRANQUIL STRETCH OF OCTOBER WEATHER IS UPON US THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OVERALL QUIET WEATHER IS OUR REGIONS
PLACEMENT IN A DRY, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE ONLY
WEATHER TODAY TO NOTE IS A WARM FRONT THAT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD.
THE AREA OF STRONGEST WAA CAN BE APPROXIMATED ON SATELLITE BY
THE SHIELD OF DEVELOPING CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH WEST CENTRAL MN. THERE IS MEAGER INSTABILITY (MUCAPE OF
UP TO 500 J/KG), WHICH MAY PRODUCE A STRAY STRIKE OR TWO OF
LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. HOWEVER, DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE WILL LIMIT MOST LOCATIONS FROM MEANINGFUL RAINFALL.
MIDWEEK, A WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. WHILE NO
PRECIPITATION IS FORECASTED IN THIS FA, IT WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (MORE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S TO END THE WEEK VERSUS WIDESPREAD 70S ON
MONDAY/TUESDAY).
THEREAFTER, UPPER FLOW BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED, WITH TROUGHING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, AND RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN US. THIS WILL SET OUR REGION UP INTO SOME
VARIATION OF A SOUTHWEST/SPLIT FLOW BY THE VERY END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE
IS PICKING UP ON THIS MORE ACTIVE PATTERN, THERE ARE QUITE A FEW
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE DETAILS, RANGING FROM HOW MANY WAVES ARE
EJECTED INTO THE REGION, THE TIMING OF EACH, AND THEIR STRENGTH.
WHILE THIS UNCERTAINTY KEEPS PRECIPITATION SPECIFICS MURKY,
THERE IS AGREEMENT WITHIN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT AFTER A BRIEF
WARMUP WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ON SATURDAY, WE WILL COOL DOWN
SUBSTANTIALLY BY NEXT MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY ARE
FORECASTED TO BE ON EITHER SIDE OF 50 DEGREES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOUTH WINDS RRV AND
EAST WILL TURN WEST THEN NORTHWEST 8 TO 18 KTS THRU THE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH MOVES THRU.
WINDS DIMINISH TO WNW 5 KTS TONIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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