980
FXUS63 KFGF 270137 CCA
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
837 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES,
LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
GROUND FOG ALTHOUGH THE HREF PROBABILITIES OF VISIBILITY LESS
THAN 1 MILE IS MINIMAL. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE
WESTERN PLAINS LATE TOMORROW, WITH MOST MODELS AGREEING ON A
WEAK SHORTWAVE COMING OVER TOP OF THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY. MEAN CAPE
VALUES LOOK FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE FRIDAY EXCEPT IN OUR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A FEW OF THE MACHINE LEARNING SOLUTIONS
HAVE SOME PROBABILITY OF SEVERE IMPACTS IN PORTIONS OF OUR WEST
ON FRIDAY, BUT SOME TEND TO RUN A BIT MORE BULLISH THAN REALITY,
SO WILL HOLD OFF MESSAGING BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
WITH THE UPPER RIDGE COMING DOWN AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
SETTING UP UNTIL A TROUGH COMES THROUGH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION MONDAY, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE AN ACTIVE PATTERN
INTO THE WEEKEND. AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY ACCORDING TO THE NBM
MEAN CAPE, BUT SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS IS ALMOST AS MUCH AS
THE MEAN VALUES, 500-1000 J/KG. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO
MESSAGE ANY SEVERE IMPACTS AT THIS POINT BUT CHANCES LOOK PRETTY
GOOD FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE FORCING AND TIME
OF YEAR FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE MEANS AND CLUSTERS
HAVE MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INTO NEXT WEEK, SO EXPECT
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC PRECIP CHANCES TO
CONTINUE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-12KT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET, ALONG WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. THERE IS
A CHANCE FOR GROUND FOG TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS THURSDAY WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS, HOWEVER THERE
IS ENOUGH DRIER AIR OFF THE SURFACE THAT COVERAGE WOULD BE
LIMITED AND IT WOULD TEND TO BE VERY SHALLOW. NO GUIDANCE
CURRENTLY SHOWS FOG DEVELOPMENT OR IMPACTS AT TAF SITES, SO THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING WE CAN MONITOR.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR
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