800
FXUS63 KFGF 151105
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
437 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG THRU MID MORNING.
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINTER IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 434 AM CDT WED APR 15 2026
AREA IF LOW CLOUDS REMAIN IN PARTS OF NW MN, DETROIT LAKES TO
PARK RAPIDS NORTH TO NEAR THIEF RIVER FALLS AND WASKISH. BUT
ALSO SEEING WIDESPREAD FOG IN THE CLEARER AREAS OF FAR NORTHWEST
MN WASKISH-TRF AND NORTH AND CONSIDERABLE FOG, SOME DENSE IN
EASTERN ND, NOT INCLUDING DEVILS LAKE. DENSE FOG ADVISORY OUT
FOR THESE AREAS THRU 14ZZ. THERE WERE A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS THAT MOVED EAST FROM BISMARCK BUT THEY LOOK TO HAVE
DISSIPATED BY JAMESTOWN, WITH POCKET OF MID CLOUDS WITH THAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..SYNOPSIS
LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A SPLIT IN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EAST OF OUR REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE WITH STRATUS SLOWLY STARTING TO BREAK UP.
ADDITIONAL FOG/STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE CURRENT
LOW CLOUDS CLEAR, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MAINLY AVIATION IMPACTS IN
NORTH CENTRAL MN. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDS EASTWARD
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE
IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND MAY RESULT IN A LARGE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES NORTH TO SOUTH (LOW 50S TO NEAR 80F DEPENDING ON
TIMING WITHIN OUR CWA). IT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
BACK TO OUR REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THAT TROUGH
PASSES, THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS IN MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ARRIVING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH RISING HEIGHTS REFLECTIVE OF
INCREASING TEMPERATURES (60S/70S BY TUESDAY). THIS PATTERN ALSO
LOWERS THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, THOUGH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE/FLOW ALOFT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES NEAR OUR CWA.
..WINTER TRAVEL IMPACT POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS STRONGER SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND WAA IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER
OVERSPREAD OUR CWA SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
(MAINLY RAIN) SHOULD MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH OUR CWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ALL ENSEMBLES AT THIS TIME SUPPORT THE MAIN CLOSED
700MB LOW TRACKING OVER MANITOBA, PLACING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
FRONTOGENSIS TO THE NORTH, WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION IN OUR CWA WILL
BE DRIVEN BY WAA OR BROADER DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
500MB LOW. WHILE THERE IS OVERALL STRONG CONSENSUS ON THE LARGER
SCALE TRACK, SMALLER SCALE FEATURES AT THE SURFACE (LOW
TRACK/FRONTAL TIMING) STILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
IMPACTS. A LARGER NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GENERALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN PLACE SUPPORTIVE OF LIQUID WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING PERIODS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS (LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX). IN THIS SCENARIO (80% CHANCE) MOST AREAS WOULD SEE
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION (BETTER CHANCE FOR 1" IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN).
THERE IS STILL A SUBSET OF MEMBERS (20%) THAT SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
DEFORMATION WHILE TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW
AND HAVE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW TOTALS GREATER THAN 3". AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER, MOST OF THIS WILL TEND TO BE ON
GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES THAT MAY LIMIT IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
RATES/WIND REDUCING VISIBILITY WHERE MODERATE/BRIEF HEAVY SNOW WOULD
TRACK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
REALLY NO CHANGES TO THE 6Z SET OF TAFS FROM THE 0Z ISSUANCE.
FOG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT, BEING MOST LIKELY AT KBJI, KTVF AND
KFAR. FOG MAY SNEAK INTO KGFK FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE.
TIMING OF FOG IS APPROXIMATE IN THE TAF AND IT COULD SHIFT A
LITTLE EARLIER OR LATER. FOR WEDNESDAY, VFR IS FORECAST, WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS DIE DOWN
WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ007-008-
016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-029-030-040.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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