876
FXUS63 KFGF 151200
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
700 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE TODAY, WITH A
LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 2.
- SHOWERS CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
- THERE REMAINS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAIN
OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL SEE A STRONG 500 MB SHORT WAVE LIFT
NORTH FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND TO THE ND/MN/SD BORDER AREA AT
00Z FRI THEN SKIRT TOWARD DULUTH BY 00Z SAT. AREA OF OF SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS, SCATTERED, CONTINUE TO BE FUNNELED NORTH-
NORTHWEST IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FEED FROM CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST SD INTO CENTRAL ND THEN INTO WESTERN MANITOBA. THIS
WILL CONTINUE THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AND FOCUS FOR THIS WILL BE
MAINLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
..RAIN AND T-STORM POTENTIAL TODAY-FRIDAY
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES NORTH WILL BE AN AREA OF
HEAVIER RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ENTERS SE ND/WC MN
LATE MORNING AND SPREADS NORTH REACHING THE INTL BORDER BY LATE
THIS AFTN. NOW AFTER THE BAND OF RAIN MOVES OUT AND JUST NORTH
OF WHERE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE NEAR THE ND/MN/SD BORDER IS AN
AREA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP IN A LIKELY DRY SLOT. A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG SURFACE CAPE IS LIKELY IN A ZONE ROUGHLY ST. CLOUD
TO FARGO MID AFTN AND SPC HREF INDICATES A BRIEF TIME IN THE
MID AFTN FOR SOME UPDRAFT HELICITY TRACKS WITHIN THIS ZONE. AREA
IS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY OF LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS, MAYBE BRIEF 1 INCH HAIL
AND FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR POTENTIAL FUNNEL CLOUDS ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW.
INSTABILITY WEAKENS BY 00Z FROM THIS.... AND AS UPPER LOW MOVES
EAST DEFORMATION ZONE RAIN FROM THE WEST WILL MOVE EAST BUT IN
A WEAKENING FASHION WITH GENERAL SHOWERS, GUSTY NORTH WINDS,
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPS FRIDAY. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS VIA WPC SHOW
HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR 1 INCH PLUS OF RAIN WEST OF THE RED RIVER,
TRANSITIONING TO MORE SO 0.50 INCH BEING THE MOST LIKELY AMOUNT
AS YOU GET TO BAUDETTE AND BEMIDJI.
COLDER AIR MOVES IN WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST (TEMPS BELOW 36F)
IN NE ND AND NW MN....PROBS OF THIS ARE QUITE HIGH IN PLACES
LIKE LANGDON (OVER 90 PCT).
NEXT WAVE MOVES INTO MONTANA SUNDAY AND THEN EAST ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS MONDAY-TUESDAY. DIFFERENCES EXIST ON TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM AS SOME WANT TO SHIFT IT MORE SOUTH FROM MONTANA AND INTO
THE SOUTH DAKOTA OR NEBRASKA VS THRU SOUTHERN ND. THIS HAS
IMPLICATIONS TO HOW FAR NORTH RAIN GETS MON NIGHT-TUES. ECMWF
IS DECIDEDLY MORE SOUTH TONIGHT VS GFS AND GEM.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU MAY 15 2025
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, PRIMARILY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITY, STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY MVFR CEILINGS
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IN
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF FGFK, IFR TO LIFR
CEILINGS ARE PREVAILING EARLY THIS MORNING, ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
FOG/MIST. CONFIDENCE ON HOW LONG THIS WILL LAST IS LOW, BUT THINK
THAT LOW CEILINGS SHOULD ERODE FROM EAST TO WEST LATER THIS MORNING.
THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, LOW CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, MOSTLY IFR WEST
OF KGFK AND KFAR, AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10-20 KTS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, STRONGEST THIS AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...HOLLAN
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