150
FXUS63 KFGF 161205
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
705 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- A NARROW SWATH OF SNOW OR WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED TONIGHT
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE EXACT LOCATION AND IMPACTS FROM
ANY SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN IS UNCERTAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR FOSSTON TO FARGO WITH A LIGHT EAST WIND
NEAR IT VS MORE SOUTHEAST SOUTH OF IT AND A GUSTIER NORTH WIND
FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE MAIN COLD FRONT HAS PUSHEED SOUTHWARD
INTO NORTHEAST ND. QUESTION IS TEMPERATURES IN THAT TRF, DVL,
GFK AREA AS MODELS INDICATE MIXING OUT OF THE LOWER COLDER
LEVELS AND RECOVERY OF TEMPS. FARGO-BEMIDJI SOUTHWARD REMAIN IN
WARM AIR TODAY AND NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WX MESSAGING CONTINUES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
SHOWERS NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST, AND
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY VERY QUIET ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. SOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWA, SO CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME FOG BUT HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND HREF PROBABILITIES FOR LESS THAN A
HALF MILE VIS ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT. WILL KEEP FOG MENTION OUT
FOR NOW.
AS FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM, STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.
PROBABILITIES OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AROUND AROUND 40
PERCENT ACCORDING TO THE HREF, WITH THE BULK OF THE SNOW
EXPECTED MORE OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. PROBABILITIES OF OVER
3 INCHES ARE 20 TO 30 PERCENT, AND WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION, THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ADVISORY LEVEL
IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 838 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHWESTERN
MN, SO UPDATED POPS TO INCLUDE A MENTION NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DIMINISH BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
..SYNOPSIS
CURRENT SPLIT FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO SW FLOW
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A PNW TROUGH DEEPENS AND MOVES
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING. ALONG WITH THIS
TROUGHING WILL BE PRECEDING SEASONALLY STRONG THERMAL RIDGING
(>98TH PERCENTILE THURSDAY EVENING) WHICH WILL PUSH THURSDAY
HIGH TEMPS TO NEAR RECORDS BUT COMING UP A FEW DEGREES SHORT FOR
MOST. THIS ALSO BRINGS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DUE TO MINIMUM
RH'S OF 25 TO 30 THOUGH WINDS LESS THAN 30 MPH WILL TEMPER THE
THREAT, MORE ON THIS BELOW. BEHIND THE HEAT ON THURSDAY COMES A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH TEMPS CRASHING FROM THE 70S/80S TO
30S/40S FOR FRIDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO THE AREA.
RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS SLOWLY REBOUNDING BY
SUNDAY INTO THE 40S FOR ALL WITH 50S/60S LIKELY FOR NEXT WEEK.
- THURSDAY HEAT/FIRE WEATHER
WITH ANOMALOUSLY STRONG THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA UP INTO THE RED LAKES EXPECT
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR. HIGHS WILL WIDELY REACH FROM
70 TO 80 FROM VALLEY CITY TO THE RED LAKES AND POINTS SOUTH. A
FEW MAY TOP 80 BUT THAT ONLY LOOKS TO BE ABOUT A 10% CHANCE FROM
LISBON TO WADENA AND SOUTH. WITH THE WARM TEMPS RH WILL FALL
INTO THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE (1PM TO 8PM) BUT WINDS ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO BE SOUTHERLY AT 20KTS GUSTING 30KTS AT THE WORST
DURING THESE LOW RH PERIODS (NOON TO 5PM) MEANING THERE IS A
SHORT 4-5 HOUR TEMPORAL OVERLAP AND EVEN SMALLER SPATIAL OVERLAP
(REALLY JUST THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY). OVERALL THIS KEEPS
US SHORT OF RED FLAG CRITERIA BUT TO ENOUGH SUPPORT NEAR
CRITICAL MESSAGING. HDWI DOES HAVE THE AREA OF CONCERN REACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND AND ERC IN THE MID 20S. ABERDEEN TO OUR
SOUTH WILL HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TOMORROW WITH
CONDITIONS BECOMING MORE OF THE NEAR CRITICAL VARIETY IN OUR FAR
SOUTH. WOULDN'T RULE OUT SITES MEETING RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
A SHORT DURATION BUT AT THIS POINT A RFW DOES NOT SEEM WARRANTED
WITH AN SPS IN EFFECT FOR THE MN COUNTIES OF CONCERN. STILL
RECOMMEND CAUTION IF BURNING.
- SNOW CHANCES
LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY THE TROUGHING MOVES MORE DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD WITH DECENT FGEN FROM 850-700MB AND FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURE PROFILES FOR SNOW. USING LESSONS LEARNED FROM THIS
WINTER AND LOOKING AT THE EC AIFS ENS THE FAVORED CORRIDOR FOR
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND FAR NORTHWEST MN. OVERALL THERE IS
A 50% CHANCE FOR A QUARTER INCH AND 30% FOR A HALF INCH OR MORE
WHICH CERTAINLY SUPPORTS MORE THAN NUISANCE AMOUNTS OF SNOW.
GUIDANCE SUITES VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON WHETHER THEY KEEP IT SNOW
VS RAIN THOUGH. HREF SNOW PROBS ARE AS HIGH AS 50% FOR A NARROW
30-50 MILE WIDE SWATH OF 3 OR MORE INCHES, WHEREAS THE NBM AND
REFS HAVE BARELY A 20% CHANCE FOR EVEN 1 INCH. WHICH IS RIGHT
YOU MAY ASK? LOOKING AT THE WPC SUPER ENSEMBLE THERE ARE OF
OUTLIERS THAT OF COURSE HAVE 4" OR MORE (VERY LOW PROBABILITY)
BUT THE MAJORITY AT ANY GIVEN POINT ARE 0-2" WITH MOST LIKELY
GETTING ONLY A FEW TENTHS (NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITH LIGHT
SNOW ON EITHER SIDE). THEREFORE THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE BAND SET UP AND EVEN HOW MUCH OF IT
FALLS AS SNOW BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE A BAND OF 0.2 TO 0.4"
OF QPF WILL FALL SOMEWHERE. THIS BRINGS AT LEAST A 30% CHANCE
FOR WINTER IMPACTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO BE WARRANTED BY SOMETIME TOMORROW.
LATER ON IN THE PERIOD THERE IS NOTHING THAT IMMEDIATELY GRABS
THE ATTENTION FOR POTENTIAL HAZARDS BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
THAT SPRING PATTERNS CAN BRING, WITH A RANGE OF HAZARDS
POSSIBLE, IT IS UNLIKELY TO BE TRULY QUIET FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 656 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
AVIATION.... WELL FARGO AND BEMIDJI WILL BE VFR AND ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING WITH A MAINLY CLEAR
SKY ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY. SOUTH EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS MAY BRIEF
REACH FAR BUT SHOULD MIX OUT PRETTY QUICKLY MID MORNING. TVF
AIRPORT AREA OFTEN IN THESE CASES WILL STAY ON THE MILDER SIDE
VS GRAND FORKS AND ALSO LESS LOW CLOUD ISSUES AND THUS VFR
ANTICIPATED INTO THE EVENING. GRAND FORKS AND DVL AREA IS MOST
UNCERTAIN. IFR CEILINGS NOW AND WITH MIXING FORECASTED BY 16Z
AND AFTER MODELS SHOW THE LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT LEAVING A VFR
MID OR HIGH CLOUD DECK WITH CONTINUED NORTH WIND 15-25 KTS. THIS
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THOUGH BUT DID GO THIS WAY IN THE TAF AS
BEING APRIL MUCH MORE OF A CHANCE OF MIXING OUT THE LOW CLOUDS
VS 2 MONTHS PRIOR. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT GFK AND DVL TO SEE CHANCES
OF WINTRY PRECIP.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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