905
FXUS63 KFGF 040436
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1136 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRYING OUT THIS EVENING WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
WILL BE MOVING OFF INTO THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
TROUGH, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD
AS RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, WITH MOST OF
THE SHORTWAVES PRODUCING PRECIPITATION STAYING NORTH IN CANADA.
UPPER HEIGHTS TREND UPWARDS A BIT TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK,
WITH SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRINGING THE RIDGING EAST AND
THEN SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE WEEKEND.
OTHER CLUSTERS OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE RIDGING RIGHT OVER US OR
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. CONFIDENCE IN DRY AND MILD
PATTERN IS HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, THEN DECREASES FOR
DAYS 6 AND 7.
..RAIN ENDING AND WARM AND DRY PATTERN SETTING IN
BAND OF LIGHT RAIN CURRENTLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN IS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST
OUT OF OUR AREA IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS. DRIER AIR SETTING IN
BEHIND THE BAND, AND THINK NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP ANY FOG
TONIGHT AT BAY EVEN WITH RECENT RAINFALL. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH PROBABILITIES OF AT
LEAST A 0.01 OF RAIN NEAR ZERO EXCEPT FOR SOME 10 PERCENTS NEAR
LAKE OF THE WOODS TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. ECWMF EFI SHOWS A
TREND TOWARDS TEMPS ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES, BUT NOTHING ON THE
EXTREME END OF CLIMO AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL
AIR IN PLACE OFF THE SURFACE. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
10KT OR LOWER EXCEPT DURING THE PEAK MIXING PERIOD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN GUSTS TO 20KT MAY OCCUR MAINLY OVER EASTERN ND.
SHALLOW CU (5000-8000 FT AGL) MAY DEVELOP AT TIMES DUE TO A
COLD POOL ALOFT IN NW FLOW. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO
BROKEN COVERAGE IS IN NORTHWEST MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR
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