330
FXUS63 KFGF 121145
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
645 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN MONDAY NORTH OF HWY 2.
- DRY AND WINDY TO END THE WEEK BRINGING ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- SCATTERED FROST/FREEZE WILL BE LIKELY ON VARIOUS MORNINGS
LATE THIS WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS PANNING OUT AS EXPECTED. HEAPING LOW
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD SCATTERED VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS RELATIVELY MORE CONSOLIDATED
FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA
MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING, LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH VERY LOW STRATUS PRESENT AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION,
THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE IN FOG DEVELOPING IN EASTERN ND
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, MAINLY ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO THE PRAIRIE POTHOLE REGION OF DEVILS
LAKE BASIN AND SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THERE ARE A FEW FEATURES OF NOTE DOMINATING THE STEERING FLOW ACROSS
CONUS.A DEEPENING PV ANOMALY IN THE PNW MERGING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF RACHEL IN THE DESERT SW OVER THE NEXT DAY. THIS WILL
DEVELOP INTO A CUTOFF/UPPER LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG 120KT+ JET STREAK ARCING NE INTO
THE GREAT LAKES ATOP AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL PUSH
NORTHEAST OUT OF MEXICO INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI BASIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS. WITH THIS, EJECTING SHORTWAVES
WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE DEVELOPING SW FLOW ALOFT INTO THE
DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY BRING AMPLE FORCING
FOR RAIN (MAINLY ALONG THE INTL BORDER). THROUGH THE LATER HALF
OF THE WEEK THE CUTOFF LOW BEGINS TO EJECT EAST WITH THE AI ENS
GUIDANCE SHOWING DECENT AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THE WAVE BUT
SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN ITS TRACK AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH
A WAVE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BY THURSDAY.
OVERALL THE INTERACTION LOOKS TO FAVOR ANY MORE ROBUST QPF TO
OUR EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BUT THERE REMAIN SCENARIOS WHERE
WE STILL SEE MEASURABLE QPF, THOSE ARE NOT THE FAVORED OUTCOME
ANYMORE HOWEVER. BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL BE A NOTABLE COOL DOWN
WITH 850MB TEMPS WELL BELOW 0C WITH DIFFERENCES THEN ARISING
INTO NEXT WEEKEND REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN.
- RAIN TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
WHILE PWAT'S WILL ONLY MARGINALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
FROM THE CURRENT 1.1" TO AROUND 1.3" FORCING VIA ISENTROPIC
ASCENT AND 850MB WAA ALONG WITH TRANSIENT VORTICITY ADVECTION
FROM THE REMNANTS OF RACHEL WILL RACE NORTHEAST. THE MAIN WINDOW
FOR HEAVIER RATES WILL BE FROM 12Z MONDAY TO 06Z TUESDAY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HWY 2. NEARLY ALL OF THE AREA HAS A GREATER THAN
50% CHANCE FOR OVER A TENTH ON AN INCH EXCEPT IN THE FAR SOUTH
WITH AREAS NORTH OF HWY 2 SEEING UPWARDS OF A 40% CHANCE FOR
OVER HALF AN INCH. GIVEN VERY WEAK UPRIGHT INSTABILITY THIS
SHOULD BE MORE OF A COOL SEASON TYPE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ONLY
OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED LIGHTNING.
- FIRE WEATHER
LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE CUTOFF/UPPER LOW MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE
MIDWEST AND THE SOUTHEAST MOVING CANADIAN WAVE INTERACT, A COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS WITH SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THOUGH MORE THAN A TENTH TO QUARTER INCH
LOOKS UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT COMES A
DRIER AIRMASS WITH MINRH FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND LOOKING TO FALL
INTO THE 30S IF NOT 20S PERCENT RANGE. BETWEEN THE CANADIAN
WAVE AND A BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACROSS MT/WY WILL BE ENHANCED
NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH RESULTING SURFACE WINDS OF
20-30MPH. THE QUESTION IS DO THE STRONG WINDS AND LOW RH EVER
OVERLAP AND ARE FUELS EVEN FAVORABLE FOR QUICK FIRE SPREAD?
THESE QUESTION WILL BE ANSWERED IN THE COMING DAYS BUT ENHANCED
FIRE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST ONE OR TWO DAYS THURSDAY TO SUNDAY
SEEMS PROBABLE.
- COOL DOWN
WHILE ANY FIRE WEATHER WILL LIKELY STEAL THE ATTENTION SHOULD IT
OCCUR THIS FIRST REAL SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR FOR THE SEASON SHOULD
BRING MORNING LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S AND UPPER 20S LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SHOULD THIS HAPPEN IT WOULD END THE
GROWING SEASON AND ANY FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. TAKING AN INITIAL
PEAK IT MAY BE TOO WINDY FOR FROST FORMATION MOST MORNINGS SO
IT COULD BECOME A PATTERN OF FREEZE WARNING OR NOTHING SHOULD IT
GET COLD ENOUGH TO WARRANT HEADLINES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
IFR WILL STICK AROUND TODAY, WITH PERIODS OF LIFR AND RAIN AS
WELL. RAIN WILL START AT KDVL WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS,
AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. BY EARLY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WILL BE IMPACTING ALL TERMINALS. RAIN WILL CLEAR FROM
WEST TO EAST FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STIFF GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST, UP
TO 15 KNOTS SUSTAINED.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page