706
FXUS63 KFGF 130049
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
649 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS, EASTERN ROSEAU COUNTY, AND
NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTY.
- WINTER IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A SYSTEM
BRINGS SNOW AND WIND INTO THE AREA. THERE IS A 60 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS OR GREATER, ESPECIALLY IN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY DRY RIGHT NOW BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS THE
WAVE EJECTING OFF OF CENTRAL MANITOBA CONTINUES TO DRAPE WARM
AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW REMAIN
EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT WITH
A GLAZE OF ICE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 147 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WARM AIR ADVECTION PREVAILS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY, BRINGING
MOISTURE INTO THE MID LEVELS AND ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPS TO CLIMB TO
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AROUND LAKE OF THE WOODS AND ADJACENT COUNTIES BEFORE TEMPS
CLIMB TOWARDS THE LOW 30S. HEADING INTO TUESDAY, TEMPS CONTINUE TO
RISE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FOR
WEDNESDAY, HIGHS REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
EASTWARD, WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGING TEMPS INTO THE 20S FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE VALLEY. ANOTHER UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER
RETURNS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS H5 FLOW BECOMES NORTHERLY. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FLOW THURSDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED CLOSELY BY A
REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR, AS WELL AS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MAINLY
LIGHTER SNOW ON FRIDAY.
..LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT
MOISTURE WILL OVERRUN COOLER AIR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD; HOWEVER, WITH LOWS STARTING IN THE UPPER 20S, A LIGHT GLAZE
OF ICE IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS SHOULD
MAINLY IMPACT ROSEAU, LAKE OF THE WOODS, AND BELTRAMI COUNTIES,
HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE FURTHER SOUTH.
..WINTER IMPACTS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
A TWO-PART SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. UPPER FLOW TURNS NORTHERLY ON THURSDAY, WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE H5
SHORTWAVE. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
ADVISORY IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL SHIFT TO MORE OF A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
DIRECTION ON FRIDAY, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS RANGING FROM 25-30 MPH AND
GUSTS WELL INTO THE 40-50 MPH RANGE. WHILE BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE, THE HIGHEST IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WHERE STRONG WINDS AND
FALLING SNOW COINCIDE. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED WHERE THIS OCCURS,
BRINGING A MODERATE TO HIGH POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL IMPACTS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST MON JAN 12 2026
NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THIS TAF ISSUANCE AS THE FORECAST
GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN ADDITION IS PROB30 GROUPS
FOR TVF AND BJI FOR POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN TO MIX INTO RAINFALL
THAT IS EXPEDCTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY AS RAIN, ALTHOUGH THOSE TWO SITES HAVE THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY FOR A CHANGEOVER.
FLIGHT CATEGORY-WISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING PERIOD WITH EVENTUAL LOWERING OF
CEILINGS TO MVFR MID TO LATE MORNING, GETTING TO IFR AT BJI.
THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR THIS TO CLEAR OUT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS
POINT, SO FOR NOW IT IS BEING HELD ONTO THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ005-006-
008-009-016-017.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...PERROUX
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