663
FXUS63 KFGF 130430
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE OCCURRING TODAY AND MONDAY WITH VERY HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY.
- HEAT IMPACTS MAY LINGER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THIS MAY
INFLUENCE DROUGHT DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE REGION, AS WELL AS
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
..SYNOPSIS
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS IS INTRODUCING VERY
HOT TEMPERATURES, WHILE ALSO PROMOTING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
RELATIVELY HIGH HUMIDITY WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS PERIOD TODAY
AND MONDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DRIVE HEAT IMPACTS FOR
MULTIPLE DAYS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
VERY SCANT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE NEXT DAYS AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OVER OUR AREA.
THIS WOULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON CONTINUED HEAT IMPACTS,
DEVELOPING POTENTIAL FOR FLASH DROUGHT, AS WELL AS IMPLICATIONS
ON FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. MORE DETAILS ON THESE BELOW.
SPEAKING OF FIRE WEATHER, THE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR RH VALUES INTO THE 30S. THIS COMBINED
WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND VERY HOT TEMPERATURES, FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD ENSUE. BIG QUESTION ON FUEL STATUS, BUT
GENERAL DEFICIT OF RAINFALL IN PLACES LIKE NORTHWEST MN INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY MAY PRIME FUELS FOR
UPCOMING HEAT WAVE TO BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FIRE SPREAD. A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED IN NORTHWEST MN AS REQUESTED
BY MINNESOTA INTERAGENCY FIRE CENTER PARTNERS.
..DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED IN THE 90S, ALTHOUGH
ARE FORECAST INTO THE LOW 100S WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S, INCLUDING
TRUSTWORTHY UPPER 70S, HAVE PUSHED HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100F AND
120F AREA- WIDE. THIS IS DRIVING VERY HOT CONDITIONS, ALONG
WITH WET-BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F,
OR INTO THE 'EXTREME' CATEGORY. HOTTEST CONDITIONS WILL BE
WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
LIMITED OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE HEAT IMPACTS. SIMILAR DAYTIME VERY HOT
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT MONDAY AS WELL.
..HEAT IMPACTS MAY LINGER
HEAT IMPACTS MAY EXTEND INTO TUESDAY / MID WEEK IN SOUTHEAST ND
AND WEST-CENTRAL MN. THIS WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAR AN EVENTUAL DRY
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. IT IS
POSSIBLE, ADDITIONALLY HEAT IMPACTS (AND SUBSEQUENT HEADLINES)
MAY LINGER IN THESE AREAS INTO MID WEEK.
WHILE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK
BEYOND MONDAY, THERE IS A CLUSTER OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT
STILL KEEPS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITHIN THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS INCLUDES SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 850MB OF AT LEAST 90TH PERCENTILE COMPARED
TO CLIMATOLOGY.
THIS WOULD INTRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR LONG DURATION HEAT IMPACTS.
AND WHILE HEAT INDICES MAY NOT REACH 100F, HEAT INDICES WELL
INTO THE 90S, HIGH TO EXTREME WET BULB GLOBE TEMPERATURES, AS
WELL AS POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY IS MAINTAINING HEATRISK IN THE
MAJOR TO EXTREME CATEGORIES WITHIN SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST-CENTRAL
MN THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
SHOULD THIS HEAT LINGER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK, THIS
WOULD BE UNUSUALLY LONG HEAT WAVE FOR OUR REGION. THIS MAY
NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR EXTENSION OF EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS NEXT
WEEK.
THIS WILL ALSO HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON RAPIDLY DEVELOPING DROUGHT
WITHIN THE REGION, OF WHICH THE CPC HAS OUTLOOKED OUR REGION FOR
THIS POTENTIAL.
ADDITIONALLY, THIS WOULD SERVE TO DRY OUT FUELS FOR SUBSEQUENT
FIRE CONDITIONS. THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE ON THE LOOK OUT
FOR.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN, WITH VERY HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S/100S ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR (40-45KT) IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY, AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR PERIODIC WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KT
OVER PARTS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
FRONTAL ZONE MOVES OUT OF CANADA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AND BECOME VARIABLE AS THIS SETTLES INTO
NORTHEAST ND BY THE EVENING HOURS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ005-006-008-009-016-017-023-024.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR
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