842  
FXUS63 KFGF 071109  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
609 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
A FEW TINY CELLS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST  
MINNESOTA ALL NIGHT. THE LAST LITTLE ECHO IS CURRENTLY MOVING  
NORTH OF BEMIDJI AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY. THERE IS A FAIR  
AMOUNT OF PATCHY THIN FOG OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN  
RIGHT NOW, BUT EXPECT THAT TO GO AWAY IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.  
THERE IS SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER OVER TOWARD  
GWINNER.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
OVERALL NOT SEEING MUCH FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS THROUGH THE SHORT  
TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS "WHEN IS IT GOING TO RAIN?" AND  
WHETHER SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.  
 
JUST A COUPLE OF SPECKLES REMAIN ON RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, A  
FEW NORTH OF THIEF RIVER FALLS AND ANOTHER AROUND LAKE ITASCA.  
THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST HOUR AND STILL  
BELIEVE IT WILL BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE VERY WEAK  
COLD FRONT THAT WAS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT IS PRETTY  
HARD TO PICK OUT. IT COULD POSSIBLY EXTEND FROM HALLOCK TO DEVILS  
LAKE. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE A VARIETY OF CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE  
AREA, MOSTLY FROM CONVECTION OUT OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.  
THERE ARE A FEW CLEAR SPOTS, AND TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE  
CLOSE, SO THEORETICALLY THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG.  
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS PRETTY LOW, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON  
MENTIONING ANY AT THIS POINT.  
 
THE ABOVE MENTIONED VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL PROGGED TO  
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY, POSSIBLY SETTING UP EAST TO WEST ACROSS  
THE FAR SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK HEATING. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY,  
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LESS  
HUMIDITY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY (MAINLY SOUTHEAST ND AND  
WEST CENTRAL MN), HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH NO  
CHANGE IN HUMIDITY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND  
THUNDER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA, AND THE BOUNDARY  
SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING (THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SHORT  
WAVE ENERGY TOO). THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ONLY MENTIONS  
GENERAL THUNDER, AS THE 0-6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT  
IMPRESSIVE.  
 
ANY SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FADE AWAY IN THE EVENING,  
WITH THE ABSENCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN. ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY  
SHOULD QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FA TOO. ON FRIDAY, THE  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD START OUT WELL SOUTH OF THE FA, WITH  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP A LIGHT  
EAST OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE  
HIGH, SO THE HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. MOST AREAS  
CAN EXPECT A VERY NICE EARLY JULY DAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S). THE FORECAST DOES SHOW AN  
ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY, BUT THAT MAY  
BE PUSHING IT. BETTER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SOME POINT IN  
THE LONG TERM.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, WE WILL ENCOUNTER CHANCES FOR  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. IMPACTS INCLUDE THE  
POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON  
THE MAGNITUDE AT THIS TIME. ONCE THIS PASSES, LOOK FOR NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ANOTHER RIDGE TRYING  
TO BUILD IN MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.  
 
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS HAD A GRIP ON OUR AREA WILL BEGIN TO  
ERODE AWAY IN THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS AN  
UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  
AROUND THE SAME TIME, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE,  
WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BRING UP OUR  
INSTABILITY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.  
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT TO OUR ATTENTION (BOTH  
US HERE AT FGF AND THOSE AT SPC) FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BECAUSE OF  
THE INSTABILITY, AS WELL AS A PRESENT LLJ IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. FEW  
CAMS AND OTHER SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE HAVE GOTTEN A GRASP ON THE  
SYSTEM SO RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS AS THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS  
(GIVEN DCAPE WELL OVER 1000 J/KG) WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.  
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THESE PARAMETERS DUE TO LACK OF GUIDANCE  
CONSISTENCY. SUNDAY'S SCENARIO IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL  
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY DUE TO THE FORCING  
OF THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH, AND SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING INSTABILITY  
FROM SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AND THAT  
CREATES A CAP IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. THANKS TO FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THIS  
IS NOT MUCH OF A BARRIER FOR SUNDAY'S STORMS. WILL THIS BE ENOUGH TO  
HOLD OFF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON? POSSIBLY, BUT POSSIBLY  
NOT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY, BUT IT'S IMPORTANT  
TO BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND.  
 
ONCE WE RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES  
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY IN THE WEEK THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT.  
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OUT OF OUR EAST ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY  
MORNING, AND LESS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AFTER THE COLD FRONT SCOURS  
OUT THE AREA, LESSENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID-WEEK. A RIDGE IS  
ALREADY PROGGED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVELS BY MID WEEK  
ACCORDING TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THIS WILL WARM OUR TEMPERATURES BACK  
TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022  
 
NO FOG IS REPORTED AROUND THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER  
WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS  
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN, PROBABLY IN THE SCT-BKN040-060 RANGE. GUIDANCE  
IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT KDVL THIS  
MORNING. THIS DOES SEEM POSSIBLE, WITH LANGDON REPORTING AN IFR  
CEILING RIGHT NOW. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE  
THROUGHOUT.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 
UPDATE...GODON  
SHORT TERM...GODON  
LONG TERM...AK  
AVIATION...GODON  
 
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