735
FXUS63 KFGF 241730
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS
NEAR DAILY RECORDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA THIS MORNING, WITH PATCHY FOG OBSERVED IN THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND AREAS TO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S, WITH OUR WARMEST TEMPS IN THE SOUTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. CAMS AND HIGH RESOLUTION ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW
VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT REGARDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING; HOWEVER, WITH GOOD LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES, AS WELL AS AFTERNOON HIGHS NEAR THE CONVECTIVE TEMPS,
ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND MOVING
EAST, WITH RIDGING UPSTREAM CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE THE ESTABLISHMENT
OF A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN AN
OMEGA BLOCK TYPE PATTERN. ENSEMBLES SHOW STRONG CONSENSUS IN
SOME FORM OF RIDGING HOLDING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND OR EVEN INTO
THE WEEK AFTER, WITH MORE SPREAD IN CLUSTERS RELATED TO THE
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM TROUGHING OVER
THE PACIFIC NW AND HOW THAT EVOLVES. THE SCENARIOS THAT SUPPORT
THE RIDGE WEAKENING IN THE WEST FASTER ALLOW FOR A SHIFT TOWARDS
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO INFLUENCE THE REGION,
WHICH BRINGS SLIGHTLY LOWER (STILL ABOVE AVERAGE) TEMPERATURES,
AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE ACTIVE WEATHER (DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES) AND A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
A STRONGER RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND (FAVORED BY MORE CLUSTERS)
KEEPS WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS IN
PLACE. FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO RECENT RAINS ON
WHETHER THEY HAVE A POSITIVE INFLUENCE LONGER TERM ON FUELS AND
GREEN-UP.
..THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH TRANSITIONS EAST AND RIDGING BUILDS ALOFT
FROM THE WEST THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION THAT MAY ALLOW FOR A WEAK
MOUNTAIN WAVE/SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO PROPAGATE ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER LATE SUNDAY. EARLIER TIMING AS NAM AND SOME CAMS SHOW WOULD
SUPPORT A WINDOW WHERE AT LEAST SOME FORCING ALIGNS WITH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG A BAROCLINIC ZONE IN OUR NORTH DURING PEAK
HEATING. STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULT IN AT LEAST A
WINDOW WHERE ELEVATED CAPE AND DCAPE 1000 J/KG+ COULD DEVELOP WHILE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES EXCEED 30KT+. UNCERTAINTY RISES FROM THE
AMOUNT OF DRY MID AND LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE, ALONG WITH VARIABLE
TIMING OF THIS WEAK WAVE/FEATURE. A FEW STRONG GUSTS OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE GUSTS MAY BE THE MAIN THREAT OUTSIDE OF SMALLER HAIL AND
LIGHTNING IF THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP DURING THE FAVORABLE WINDOW
(4PM-9PM).
..HOT/SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK
THERE IS MINIMAL SPREAD IN GUIDANCE REGARDING HIGHS WITH EVEN THE
25TH PERCENTILE OF NBM GUIDANCE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. 50TH PERCENTILE VALUES ARE ALREADY WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF DAILY RECORDS ON MEMORIAL DAY AND ON TUESDAY ARE AT
OR ABOVE (DAILY RECORDS GENERALLY 90-93F). TEMPERATURES REMAIN
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, THOUGH NOT
QUIET AS WARM LATE WEEK (INCREASING SPREAD DUE TO LESS CERTAINTY
OF RIDGE STRENGTH).
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN. I WON'T RULE OUT AT LEAST SOME GROUND FOG
REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING DUE TO
A PERIOD OF LIGHT WINDS IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS, HOWEVER GUIDANCE
IS NOT SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR THIS AND OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS
KEEPS VFR VIS IN PLACE. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS A WEAK WAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST, BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW (UNDER 20%),
MAINLY THIS EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN
UNDER 12KT FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS WEAK
GRADIENT AND WEAK WINDS ALOFT ARE IN PLACE. SOUTHWEST WINDS DO
BEGIN TO INCREASE TO THE 10-14KT RANGE AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING AS GRADIENT BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE NORTHWEST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR
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