848
FXUS63 KFGF 052333
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 SEVERE RISK TONIGHT IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL UP TO 1 INCH.
- LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 SEVERE RISK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A PRIMARY
RISK FOR LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH SECONDARY RISK FOR STRONG WINDS
AND A TORNADO OR TWO.
- LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 SEVERE RISK TUESDAY FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94/HWY 10. THERE IS
ALSO A LEVEL 2 OF 4 RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE SAME AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
..SYNOPSIS
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES. WE ARE STILL LOOKING
AT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
THEN ONCE MORE ON MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE
REGION. GIVEN THE OVERALL SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE WAVES, THE RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING BEGINS TO BECOME A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY MOVING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST HEADING INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING HIGH TEMPS
INTO THE RANGE OF AVERAGES FOR EARLY JULY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE
BEING HIGHLIGHTED ACROSS VARIOUS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS ZONAL FLOW BRINGS PROGRESSIVE WAVES THROUGH THE AREA. THE
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES, WHICH COULD
JUSTIFY A MENTION OF STRONG STORMS IF THEY LINE UP WITH PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. LOOKING INTO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN A RETURN TO HIGHER TEMPS AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO
THE AREA.
..SEVERE CHANCES TONIGHT AND MONDAY
A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE AN AXIS OF DEVELOPMENT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AS THE
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS HOLDING CLOSE TO THE MAIN THETA-E AXIS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAINLY A HAIL RISK,
WITH A LOWER CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS
BOUNDARY CONTINUES EASTWARD. THE AXIS OF DEVELOPMENT IS FAVORING
AREAS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE HAIL, WITH SECONDARY RISKS INCLUDING DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD CHANCES TUESDAY
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND FLASH
FLOODING INTO PARTS OF THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. INITIATION FAVORS THE
AREA INCLUDING SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, WITH STORMS
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST PARALLEL TO THE INITIATING THETA-E GRADIENT
BOUNDARY. THIS COULD SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THAT TRAVERSE
THE SAME AREAS REPEATEDLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
PRIMARY IMPACT RELATED TO EVENTUAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT/COVERAGE. THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A FRONTAL ZONE CURRENTLY IN WESTERN ND AND
AND MANITOBA THAT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. INITIALLY ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
HIGHEST IN THE KDVL REGION TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING BUT AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG/SEVERE WITH
LARGE HAIL/WIND. DUE TO VARIABLE COVERAGE I KEPT MENTION LIMITED
TO PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW DURING MOST LIKELY PERIODS MONDAY
DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AS THE FRONT PASSES MONDAY (FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ND TO NORTHWEST MN BY MONDAY EVENING). A FEW GUSTS TO
25KT MAY OCCUR AT TIMES, BUT GUSTS TO 30KT ARE NOT EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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