390
FXUS63 KFGF 060258
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
958 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN MINNESOTA. MAIN HAZARD IS
LIGHTNING, ALTHOUGH COULDN'T RULE OUT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 50 MPH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
UPDATED THE KEY MESSAGE TO NOTE ON THURSDAY'S CONDITIONAL CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN MINNESOTA.
TWO FORCING MECHANISMS MAY SPARK ATTEMPTS AT DEEP CONVECTION -
THE FIRST IS RELATIVELY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE / THETA-E
ADVECTING INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY.
LATER IN THE EVENING, A SECOND AREA OF FORCING INTRUDES IN THE
FORM OF A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOST GUIDANCE
PINPOINTS FAR NORTHWEST MN AS THE FAVORED ZONE FOR POTENTIAL
STORMS FROM THIS FORCING, LIKELY DUE TO THIS AREA BEING CLOSER
TO THE MID/UPPER WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR DRIVING THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER, COMBATING THESE FORCING MECHANISMS WILL ALSO BE AT
LEAST WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. GIVEN THE MEAGER
STRENGTH OF FORCING IN ADDITION TO THE RELATIVELY LOWER OVERALL
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACING. THIS IS THE REASON
WHY THE CHANCE FOR STORMS REMAINS LOW (BUT NOT ZERO).
IN THE SCENARIO WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP, THE RELATIVELY
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPLY THE INSTABILITY
NEEDED FOR CONVECTION, ALBEIT NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS
INSTABILITY ON THE LOW END, ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG TO 1000
J/KG. THIS IS IN TANDEM WITH VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT THROUGH
THE CLOUD BEARING LAYER, AND MEAN WIND SPEED WITHIN THE LAYER OF
AROUND 40 KT.
DESPITE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, OVERALL MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. THIS MAY BE
ANOTHER FAILURE MODE, WITH DEEP CONVECTION PERHAPS STRUGGLING TO
SURVIVE, JUXTAPOSED WITH MEAGER FORCING AND SOME FORM OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THIS REGIME.
HOWEVER, SHOULD A STORM DEVELOP AND SUSTAIN ITSELF, THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH WIND SHEAR TO HELP ORGANIZE THE LIKELY SPATIALLY
MINIATURE STORM, OFFERING OPPORTUNITY FOR SMALL HAIL TO BE
GENERATED. COULDN'T RULE OUT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS DUE TO WELL
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE GENERAL MOMENTUM OF WIND ALOFT THAT
COULD BE TRANSFERRED TOWARD THE SURFACE.
FOR THE CONDITIONAL CHANCE TO SEE LOW END SEVERE, OR NEAR SEVERE
HAZARDS, A KEY MESSAGE WAS INTRODUCED TO RAISE AWARENESS OF THIS
POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..SYNOPSIS
FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP ROUNDING THE
BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND MOVING INTO ND. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS SOME SHOWERS WITH THE SHORTWAVE, WITH MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RETURNS UP IN CANADA. NDAWN NETWORK HAS YET TO SHOW
AND PRECIPITATION IN ND REACHING THE GROUND, AND THAT FITS THE
QPF FORECASTS FOR THE MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS. VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA, SO IF ANY PRECIPITATION DOES
REACH THE GROUND IT WILL BE LITTLE MORE THAN SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES. A STRONGER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES
INTO MANITOBA AND ONTARIO TOMORROW, HELPING TO PUSH A COLD FRONT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. MANY OF THE MODELS TRY
TO DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THAT
BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CAPE VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT
THAT GREAT. CURRENTLY THE HREF HAS SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDER, BUT UPDRAFT HELICITIES INDICATING
SEVERE ARE PRETTY MINIMAL. THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME LOW LEVEL
AND ELEVATED SMOKE MOVING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SO INCREASED HIGH CLOUD COVER A BIT ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY
SMOKE.
FRIDAY LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. VARIOUS WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES COULD BRING SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT ALL
SOLUTIONS LOOK PRETTY LIGHT AND TIMING AND STRENGTH OF SUCH
MINOR FEATURES IS HARD TO TELL AT THIS POINT ANYWAY. TEMPS LOOK
NEAR SEASONAL VALUES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST FOR MOST TAF SITES BETWEEN 06Z
AND 13Z. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN MINNESOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER, THE
CHANCE FOR THIS POTENTIAL IS CURRENTLY LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
MENTION OF -TSRA/VCTS OMITTED FROM TAFS. THIS MAY CHANGE AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES, ALTHOUGH, THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL VERY
NEAR IN TIME WHEN STORMS WOULD BE DEVELOPING - AS EARLY AS 19Z
THURSDAY EARLY AFTERNOON, LASTING AS LATE AS 04Z THURSDAY
NIGHT.
OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
BEFORE 00Z, AFTER 00Z, A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REGION SHIFTING AND INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST. THIS WIND SHIFT IS CURRENTLY OUTSIDE OF THE 00Z TAF
WINDOW.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...CJ
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