278
FXUS63 KFGF 210342
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1042 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SEASONABLY COOL AND MILD TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT APPRECIABLE
CHANCE FOR STORMS ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DOMINATES OVER OUR REGION BETWEEN TWO UPPER
TROUGHS IN CANADA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA UNDER SEASONABLY COOL
(BUT MILD AND COMFORTABLE) TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS UNDER CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS.
NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS COMES TUESDAY AS
ALL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE BRINGS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO MINNESOTA. TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL DICTATE HOW STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS MAY BE, BUT AT THIS TIME, THERE ARE NO APPRECIABLE
SIGNALS FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER.
GETTING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, UPPER RIDGING IS FORECAST TO
BUILD DEEPER INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH UPPER TROUGHING IN THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL PROMOTE
TEMPERATURE TREND BACK TOWARD AVERAGE TO PERHAPS ABOVE AVERAGE.
IT IS ALSO WORTH MENTIONING THAT EXTENDED RANGE ENSEMBLE AND AI
GUIDANCE MIGRATE THE AFOREMENTIONED ROCKIES' UPPER TROUGH
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN ATTENDANT UPPER JET MAX
AT THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS
TROUGH. WITH PRECEDING UPPER RIDGING HELPING BUILD INSTABILITY
AND HEAT INTO THE REGION, IT IS REASONABLE TO BELIEVE THAT
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE, PERHAPS AS EARLY AS NEXT
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2026
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
OVERSPREADING THE REGION, BUT THATS IT FOR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AS WE ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH. WINDS INCREASE A BIT OUT OF THE EAST/NORTHEAST FOR
SUNDAY, SUSTAINING THEMSELVES UP TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL FORM, BUT ITS
UNLIKELY TO FORM A CEILING, WITH BASES AROUND 5,000 FT AGL.
WINDS WILL DECREASE AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT, AS MORE WIDESPREAD CIRRUS STARTS TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE ON MONDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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