842
FXUS63 KFGF 071109
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
609 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
A FEW TINY CELLS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA ALL NIGHT. THE LAST LITTLE ECHO IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTH OF BEMIDJI AND SHOULD EXIT THE AREA SHORTLY. THERE IS A FAIR
AMOUNT OF PATCHY THIN FOG OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN
RIGHT NOW, BUT EXPECT THAT TO GO AWAY IN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS.
THERE IS SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER OVER TOWARD
GWINNER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
OVERALL NOT SEEING MUCH FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM. THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS "WHEN IS IT GOING TO RAIN?" AND
WHETHER SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE.
JUST A COUPLE OF SPECKLES REMAIN ON RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING, A
FEW NORTH OF THIEF RIVER FALLS AND ANOTHER AROUND LAKE ITASCA.
THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST HOUR AND STILL
BELIEVE IT WILL BE GONE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE VERY WEAK
COLD FRONT THAT WAS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT IS PRETTY
HARD TO PICK OUT. IT COULD POSSIBLY EXTEND FROM HALLOCK TO DEVILS
LAKE. OTHERWISE, THERE ARE A VARIETY OF CLOUD DECKS ACROSS THE
AREA, MOSTLY FROM CONVECTION OUT OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS.
THERE ARE A FEW CLEAR SPOTS, AND TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE
CLOSE, SO THEORETICALLY THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THAT IS PRETTY LOW, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTIONING ANY AT THIS POINT.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED VERY WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IS STILL PROGGED TO
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY, POSSIBLY SETTING UP EAST TO WEST ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN FA DURING PEAK HEATING. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
HUMIDITY. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY (MAINLY SOUTHEAST ND AND
WEST CENTRAL MN), HIGHS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY WITH NO
CHANGE IN HUMIDITY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING SHOWER AND
THUNDER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA, AND THE BOUNDARY
SHOULD PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH FORCING (THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY TOO). THE SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK ONLY MENTIONS
GENERAL THUNDER, AS THE 0-6KM EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS NOT ALL THAT
IMPRESSIVE.
ANY SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FADE AWAY IN THE EVENING,
WITH THE ABSENCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET AGAIN. ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY
SHOULD QUICKLY DIVE SOUTHEAST OF THE FA TOO. ON FRIDAY, THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD START OUT WELL SOUTH OF THE FA, WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING. SURFACE WINDS WILL KEEP A LIGHT
EAST OR LIGHT SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
HIGH, SO THE HUMIDITY WILL STILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. MOST AREAS
CAN EXPECT A VERY NICE EARLY JULY DAY, WITH HIGHS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL (UPPER 70S TO MID 80S). THE FORECAST DOES SHOW AN
ISOLATED STORM POSSIBLE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY, BUT THAT MAY
BE PUSHING IT. BETTER CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL SOME POINT IN
THE LONG TERM.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN, WE WILL ENCOUNTER CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. IMPACTS INCLUDE THE
POSSIBILITY FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
THE MAGNITUDE AT THIS TIME. ONCE THIS PASSES, LOOK FOR NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK WITH ANOTHER RIDGE TRYING
TO BUILD IN MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS HAD A GRIP ON OUR AREA WILL BEGIN TO
ERODE AWAY IN THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS AN
UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
AROUND THE SAME TIME, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN MORE MOISTURE,
WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO BRING UP OUR
INSTABILITY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS HAVE BEEN BROUGHT TO OUR ATTENTION (BOTH
US HERE AT FGF AND THOSE AT SPC) FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BECAUSE OF
THE INSTABILITY, AS WELL AS A PRESENT LLJ IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. FEW
CAMS AND OTHER SHORTER RANGE GUIDANCE HAVE GOTTEN A GRASP ON THE
SYSTEM SO RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS AS THOUGH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
(GIVEN DCAPE WELL OVER 1000 J/KG) WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON THESE PARAMETERS DUE TO LACK OF GUIDANCE
CONSISTENCY. SUNDAY'S SCENARIO IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE INTO SUNDAY DUE TO THE FORCING
OF THE COLD FRONT/TROUGH, AND SOME POSSIBLE LINGERING INSTABILITY
FROM SATURDAY. HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER AND THAT
CREATES A CAP IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THANKS TO FORCING FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT, THIS
IS NOT MUCH OF A BARRIER FOR SUNDAY'S STORMS. WILL THIS BE ENOUGH TO
HOLD OFF CONVECTION ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON? POSSIBLY, BUT POSSIBLY
NOT. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POSSIBILITY, BUT IT'S IMPORTANT
TO BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
ONCE WE RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW IN THE WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER EARLY IN THE WEEK THANKS TO THE COLD FRONT.
PRECIPITATION WILL PUSH OUT OF OUR EAST ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, AND LESS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AFTER THE COLD FRONT SCOURS
OUT THE AREA, LESSENING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID-WEEK. A RIDGE IS
ALREADY PROGGED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE UPPER LEVELS BY MID WEEK
ACCORDING TO ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THIS WILL WARM OUR TEMPERATURES BACK
TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT THU JUL 7 2022
NO FOG IS REPORTED AROUND THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY TODAY. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT AGAIN, PROBABLY IN THE SCT-BKN040-060 RANGE. GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR AT KDVL THIS
MORNING. THIS DOES SEEM POSSIBLE, WITH LANGDON REPORTING AN IFR
CEILING RIGHT NOW. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE
THROUGHOUT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...AK
AVIATION...GODON
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