651
FXUS63 KFGF 260448
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1148 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDS GUSTING TO 40 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH
VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIME IN BLOWING DUST.
- A WET PATTERN ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH THE 24
HOUR PROBABILITY FOR GREATER THAN 0.5 INCHES BETWEEN 50-80%.
THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES EXIST ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NORTH DAKOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
A FEW CLUSTERS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STARTING TO MOVE INTO OUR
FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR THE SD STATE LINE WITH MORE EXPANSIVE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THESE CLUSTERS ACROSS SD MOVING NORTHEAST. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE PUSH OF
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE. THIS
IS ALL GENERALLY ON TRACK (SLIGHTLY SLOW FOR SOME LOCATIONS).
WINDS HAVE DECREASED MORE SUBSTANTIALLY FOR SOME LOCATIONS BUT
REMAIN GUSTY IN THE SOUTHERN RRV (SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH IN
SOUTHEAST ND). I MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY TO BETTER CAPTURE CURRENT TRENDS AND THE EVENTUAL
SHIFT IN WINDS TOMORROW WITH THE SURFACE LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 815 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
THE UPWARD TREND IN RH VALUES (TO AROUND 30% OR HIGHER) AND
DOWNWARD TREND IN STRONGEST GUSTS (NOW BELOW 45 MPH) MATCHED THE
TIMING OF OUR HARD PRODUCTS AND I LET THEM EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED
AT 8 PM (01Z).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ALLOW FOR VERY DEEP MIXING AND LOWER TDS
HELD ON LONGER THAN GUIDANCE INDICATED IN ND RESULTING IN RH
VALUES UNDER 30% WITH THE STRONG WINDS GUSTS CREATING PERSISTENT
RED FLAG CONDITIONS IN EASTERN ND (ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST ND).
WINDS HAVE ALSO BE STRONGER WITH REPORTED GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH
REPORTED IN THE VALLEY WITH SOME FUNNELING LIKELY CONTRIBUTING
TO MOMENTUM TRANSFER. NEAR OPEN FIELDS WHERE STRONGER WINDS ARE
IN THE VALLEY BLOWING DUST HAS RESULTED IN VISIBILITY IN THE
1-6 MILE RANGE WITH BROWN OUT (1/4 MILE OR LESS) IN THE
IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY OF SOME FIELDS CREATING HIGHLY VARIABLE AND
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.
CONSIDERING THESE TRENDS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON; THE RED FLAG
WARNING WAS EXTENDED ACROSS EASTERN ND, THE WIND ADVISORY WAS
EXPANDED, AND A BLOWING DUST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. ALL PRODUCTS WERE EXTENDED TO 8PM
WHICH SHOULD CORRELATED WITH THE END OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
LOWEST RH VALUES (THOUGH WE WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
DEEP MIXING TODAY BROUGHT THE HIGHER WIND GUSTS TO 30
TO 40 MPH AND DRIER AIR (RH VALUES BELOW 30%) DOWN TO THE SURFACE
FOR A RED FLAG WARNING TO BE ISSUED FOR OUR MINNESOTA COUNTIES.
OBSERVATION SHOW RH VALUES TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER (30-40%) FOR
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. GUIDANCE WAS UNDER MIXING FOR OUR AREA AND
RETAINING MORE MOISTURE THAN WHAT WAS OCCURRING. A WIND ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THE NORTH DAKOTA SIDE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH BOTH
THE ADVISORY AND RED FLAG WARNING ENDING AT 00Z. TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING THE FIRST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EJECTS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER
OVER OUR REGION. CAM GUIDANCE HAS THE PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH NEAR SUNRISE. WHILE PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN HALF AN
INCH OF PRECIP ARE AROUND 50 - 70%, PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR
MORE ARE BETWEEN 15 TO 30% ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AS TRAILL AND NORMAN COUNTY
FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT OUR REGION STARTING SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE BIT DRIER AND MAYBE WEAKER THAN
THE FIRST SYSTEM. THE TRACK FOR THIS ONE LOOKS TO CUT RIGHT THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO A MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN.
HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING AN INCH OF RAIN ARE LESS THAN
10% WHILE PROBS FOR 0.5 INCHES ARE BETWEEN 30 TO 50% FOR THE REGION.
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE
60'S AND 70'S WITH AN OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE IN THE 40'S. GUIDANCE
HAS THE REGION IN A MORE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW BUT WITH THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT MAY LEAD TO SOME BRIEF POP-UP
SHOWERS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT THU APR 25 2024
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY TAF PERIOD,
HOWEVER INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE WILL RESIN IN MVFR/IFR STRATUS EVENTUALLY
OVERSPREADING EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN FRIDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN COVERAGE, AND WHILE SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, COVERAGE/CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS AT
TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE TS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS (3-6SM) WILL BE POSSIBLE WHEN THE MAIN
PERIODS OF RAIN MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY (MIDDAY INTO THE
EVENING). WINDS SHOULD SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES AND
EVENTUALLY PREVAIL LESS THAN 12KT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...MM
AVIATION...DJR
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