738
FXUS63 KFGF 091254
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
654 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE TODAY SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. NO IMPACTS ANTICIPATED AS TEMPS AROUND
OR ABOVE FREEZING.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL MN THURSDAY. IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL AS HIGHER CHANCES
ARE TO OUR SOUTH.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
THE RADAR RETURNS FROM MID LEVEL WATER DROPLETS HAVE WEAKENED
SOME OVER THE LAST 2 HOURS AND NOW CONFIDENT THAT NOTHING IS
REACHING THE GROUND FROM THEN . RADAR AND OBS SHOW MAIN
PRECIPITATION IS BACK IN MONTANA AND 06Z MODEL DATA AND HRRR
SHOW BEST CHANCE OF ANY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SPREADING THRU FAR
SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTN. OBS SHOW THE WARMER
AIRMASS WITH TEMPS ABOVE 32F HAS RECHED THRU NW MN WHERE WEST
WINDS ARE STRONGEST SOUTH OF THE LOW IN MANITOBA. STILL POCKETS
OF AROUND 30 DEGREES IN FAR SE ND INTO WC MN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
..SYNOPSIS
AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAKING EAST FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA
THROUGH SOUTHERN ND INTO WEST CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. AND
THIS ZONE OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THE DAY.
THERE ARE A COUPLE AREAS OF 700 MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THAT
MOVE EAST, MAIN PERIOD IS MID AFTN AHEAD OF 500 MB SHORT WAVE IN
IDAHO THAT MOVES THRU NORTHERN SD. DID MAINTAIN POPS FOR
PRECIPITATION THIS AFTN FOR THIS IN SOUTHEAST ND INTO WEST
CENTRAL MN. BUT OVERALL LAYER BENEATH 800 MB IS QUITE DRY, AND
MOISTURE AT 850 MB IS NARROW ZONE MORE SO IN FAR NORTHERN SD.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES OF WHERE THE PRECIP IS MOVING THRU SUGGEST
TEMPS WELL ABOVE FREEZING DURING ANY PRECIPITATION AND LIQUID
RAIN. AHEAD OF ALL THIS IS SOME SPRINKLES MOVING QUICKLY EAST
THRU WEST CENTRAL MN ROTHSAY TO PERHAM AT 09Z. IT IS MOVING
QUICKLY AND IS PRODUCING A TRACE AMOUNT OF LIQUID PER NDAWN. IT
IS IN AN AREA OF TEMPS 31-33 DEGREES SO SOME CONCERN OF ICING
BUT QUICK MOVEMENT WOULD SUGGEST VERY BRIEF PRECIP PERIOD.
PERHAM MN RAILROAD CAM INDICATE SOME SPRINKLES AT 0947Z AND TEMP
AT 31. WILL MONITOR BUT AT THIS TIME IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. SEEING SOMETHING SIMILAR WEST OF JAMESTOWN BUT
TEMPS THERE AROUND 40. ANOTHER LIVE STREAM CAM ON OTTERTAIL LAKE
SHOWS FLURRIES.
AS THE UPPER WAVE PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH INTO CENTRAL MN BY
TONIGHT....LOW PRESSURE IN CENTRAL MANITOBA WILL MOVE EAST INTO
NW ONTARIO. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE LOW AND A BIT COLDER AIR
MASS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN LATER
TODAY AND THRU THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH COLDER TEMPS ON TUESDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP FOR LIGHT SNOW IN FAR NW MN AS MOISTURE
DOES SPREAD SOUTHEAST AROUND THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT.
REST OF THE WEEK THRU SUNDAY IS OVERALL LOOKING QUIET. 500 MB
TROUGH, UPPER LOW DIVES WELL SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND
ARIZONA MID TO LATE WEEK WITH ANY MOISTURE FROM THAT REMAINING
SOUTH. OUR AREA REMAINS IN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND THERE IS
ANOTHER ONE OF THESE FAST MOVING UPPER WAVES MOVING THRU SD INTO
SOUTHERN MN THU INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW CHANCES.
THIS MAY SKIRT THE FAR SOUTHERN FCST AREA. BETTER MOISTURE IS
JUST SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA IN E SD INTO SOUTHERN HALF OF MN
WHERE TEMPS WILL DETERMINE PTYPE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 649 AM CST MON FEB 9 2026
MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND THIS MORNING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND THESE WILL DROP SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWEST AND LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTH AS SURFACE LOW IN MANITOBA MOVES EAST. OUTSIDE
OF THE MVVR STRATOCU CLOUDS, MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER DOMINATES AND
THIS WILL BE DOMINATE CLOUD IN FARGO TIL EARLY EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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