808
FXUS63 KFGF 250247
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
947 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH CHANCE FOR SOAKING RAINFALL LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
INCLUDING A 60% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
RAINFALL TOTALS HAVE REMAINED LIGHT SO FAR THIS EVENING, WITH A
FEW HUNDREDTHS SO FAR IN SOUTHEASTERN ND. MOST RADAR RETURNS
ARE STILL NOT REACHING THE GROUND. THESE RETURNS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT, WITH LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FROM
THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN. CLOUDS HAVE
STARTED CLEARING OUT OF THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. DEPENDING HOW
FAST CLOUDS CLEAR, LOCALIZED GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
IN THE NORTH. STILL NOT VERY CONFIDENT IF IT WILL FORM, AND IT
SEEMS IF IT DOES FORM IT WILL BE PATCHY AND RELATIVELY THIN, SO
HAVE NOT ADDED IT TO THE FORECAST, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
RADAR RETURNS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ND AND NORTHERN SD. HOWEVER, CLOUD BASES ARE STILL OVER 5000
FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, AND DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE. THEREFORE, VERY FEW OF THESE RETURNS ARE REACHING
THE GROUND, WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF NDAWN STATIONS REPORTING A
TRACE OF RAIN SO FAR. UPDATED POPS A BIT ALONG THE SD BORDER,
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THERE ARE A COUPLE DIFFERENT AREAS OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA THIS
AFTERNOON, THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND THE
CUMULUS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE SOUTHERN CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST TONIGHT, WHILE THE CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE
BY EARLY EVENING. OVERALL, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE DEVILS LAKE
REGION, MOST AREAS WILL BE CLOUDY FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE
NIGHT. THERE WAS FOG THIS MORNING, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. IF THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, SO MORE FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE.
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE FOG POTENTIAL, SO WILL NOT MENTION
IT AT THIS POINT. EXPECTING A LOT MORE SUN FOR FRIDAY, AND THERE
SHOULDN'T BE AS MUCH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AS THERE HAS BEEN THE
PAST FEW DAYS.
..WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
THE PICTURE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IS GETTING A LITTLE
MORE IN FOCUS NOW. AN 850MB JET KICKS IN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
DAKOTAS AND MONTANA BORDER, THEN SLIDES EASTWARD ON SATURDAY.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THAT BEGIN NEAR 0.50 INCHES IN THAT
AREA DO RISE TO AROUND 0.80 INCHES INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON
SATURDAY. AT THIS POINT, DON'T SEE A LOT OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TIME PERIOD.
THINK CONVECTION MAY FORM TO THE WEST OF THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH DYING SHOWERS TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THIS FA ON SATURDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET LOOKS TO KICK IN AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT, THIS
TIME RIGHT OVER THE FA, SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 0.80 INCHES
START TO COME UP A LITTLE MORE DURING THIS TIME FRAME (GETTING
CLOSER TO 1 INCH). HOWEVER, THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY STILL
DOESN'T LOOK THAT GOOD.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AN EVEN STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET
(POSSIBLY 50 TO 60 KNOTS) SETS UP SOUTH OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT,
ALTHOUGH EXACTLY WHERE THIS MAY BE HAS YET TO BE DETERMINED.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES, AND THE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY FINALLY STARTS LOOKING BETTER. SUNDAY NIGHT
STORMS WOULD BE ELEVATED, NOT DEPENDING ON THE EXACT SURFACE
SETUP. MOVING INTO MONDAY, ONCE THE MORNING CONVECTION TAPERS
OFF, THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL GET MORE IMPORTANT. BEING 4 DAYS
OUT, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHERE SURFACE FEATURES WILL BE ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING IT SOMEWHERE
IN THE SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA, AND
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA REGION, LIFTING NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY.
THE DAY 5 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK CLIPS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST FA,
MAINLY FROM FERGUS FALLS TOWARD WADENA. AFTER NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION, DAYTIME CONVECTION ALWAYS DEPENDS ON HOW FAST CLOUDS
CLEAR OUT AND TEMPERATURES CAN RECOVER. MONDAY HIGHS COULD
POTENTIALLY GET INTO THE LOW 70S AROUND FERGUS FALLS WITH
DEWPOINTS AROUND 60F. SO STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025
SEVERAL CLOUD DECKS ARE CURRENTLY PASSING OVER THE AREA, WITH
CUMULUS IN THE NORTH AND A DECK OF MID LEVEL STRATUS FURTHER
SOUTH. HOWEVER, ALL CLOUD DECKS ARE VFR. VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY WRENCH IN THE FORECAST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CONTINGENT ON CLOUDS CLEARING OUT. IN
ADDITION, WINDS, WHILE LIGHT, WILL BE VARIABLE OR OUT OF THE
NORTH, WHICH SHOULD BRING IN A LITTLE DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR.
THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORMING IS LOW RIGHT NOW, SO LEFT
IT OUT OF THIS SET OF TAFS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...GODON
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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