395
FXUS63 KFGF 181915
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
215 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU NEXT
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SURFACE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA,
AND HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE IN BEHIND IT FOR TONIGHT. WITH
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS, RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL BE GOOD, WITH THE NORTHERN COUNTIES DROPPING INTO
THE MID 30S AND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR BELOW 32 DEGREES AROUND
TOWNER COUNTY. HOWEVER, TEMPS IN THAT AREA HAVE ALREADY DIPPED
INTO THE UPPER 20S, SO NO FREEZE HEADLINES ARE NEEDED AT THIS
POINT. TEMPS WILL RECOVER QUICKLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE WORK WEEK
AND UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE THROUGH CANADA
WILL AGAIN BRING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT THROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT NOT MUCH IMPACT EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE
ECMWF EFI SHOWING ONLY MORE OF A WARM SIGNAL AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AND FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY.
PATTERN STARTS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AND A LEAD SHORTWAVE AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION COME INTO THE REGION. EXACT TIMING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH COMING OUT INTO THE PLAINS IS ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS KEEPING THE MAIN TROUGHING OFF TO OUR
WEST WHILE OTHERS BRING LOWER HEIGHTS INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. THE ENSEMBLES DO HAVE A SIGNAL FOR AT LEAST
SOME PRECIPITATION AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE
ECMWF EFI EVEN HAS SOME UNUSUAL FOR THE SEASON CAPE IN PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA. THUS, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER SEEM MORE LIKELY
DURING THIS ACTIVE PATTERN THAN ANY SNOW.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 18 2026
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS, BUT NOTHING BELOW 20000 FT AND ALL SITES WILL
REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AT THE
MORE NORTHWESTERN AIRPORTS WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS, BUT
THAT WILL TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, EVENTUALLY STEADYING OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KTS AT KDVL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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