335
FXUS63 KFGF 100550
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-THERE IS A 3 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, NIGHT, AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AFTERNOON
MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL TO SIZE OF GOLF BALLS,
TORNADOES, AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE VERY STRONG WINDS TO 80 MPH,
LINE-EMBEDDED BRIEF TORNADOES, AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS. THERE IS ALSO A FLASH FLOOD RISK TONIGHT.
-TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW AND MID 90S, HIGHEST WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. THOSE WORKING OUTSIDE OR EXERCISING IN DIRECTLY
SUNLIGHT OR THOSE SENSITIVE TO HEAT WILL EXPERIENCE IMPACTS.
-THERE IS A 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON EAST OF THE RED RIVER. MAIN HAZARDS INCLUDE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS, WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH, AND PERHAPS
TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC INTO INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST IS ALLOWING EMBEDDED WAVES OF ENERGY TO SPREAD OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TODAY, INCLUDING ONE SHORTWAVE
OF NOTE THAT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN MB.
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES, AN AIR MASS COMPOSED OF HOT
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S CONCURRENT WITH RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S HAS
OVERSPREAD EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ROBUST AND EVENTUAL WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, INCLUDING THOSE THAT BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN THE INCREASING WIND ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH, AND LOCALLY ENHANCED NEAR THE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS.
HOT AND MOIST AIR MASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IS ALSO LEADING TO
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS TO MORE SENSITIVE GROUPS THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MORE INFORMATION ON THIS
CAN BE FOUND BELOW.
THE WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO STILL LINGER WITHIN
MINNESOTA BY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN EVENTUAL COLD FRONT
THAT WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST THROUGH OUR AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL ALSO FINALLY SWING THROUGH OUR AREA
WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP MAINLY WITHIN MINNESOTA, SOME OF WHICH
MAY AGAIN BE SEVERE.
MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS ON TODAY'S AND WEDNESDAY'S SEVERE RISK CAN
BE FOUND BELOW.
THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, THE PATTERN CHANGES TURNING MUCH COOLER
AND WINDIER THAN RECENT DAYS. UPPER TROUGH MIGRATES INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGING ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, WITH THE HELP OF SEVERAL
REINFORCING COLD FRONTS TO SWEEP THROUGH OUR AREA. FORECAST
HIGHS INTO THE 60S AND LOWS INTO THE 40S THIS WEEKEND THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
..SEVERE RISK TODAY AND WEDNESDAY
PREVIOUS AFDS TALKED ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE
SUPERCELLULAR-TYPE STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS FAR, ATTEMPTS AT SUSTAINED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT HAS FAILED WITHIN OUR AREA. THIS MAY BE DUE TO JUST
ENOUGH CAPPING AS OBSERVED ON A UND SOUNDING SAMPLED FROM GRAND
FORKS AT 18Z.
HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND GRADUALLY INCREASING
MOISTURE CONVERGING IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITHIN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY, NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
THIS SCENARIO COULD COME TO FRUITION. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, LARGE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS (PERHAPS LARGER), TORNADOES, AND
LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 60 MPH WOULD BE MAIN HAZARDS. THIS WINDOW FOR
DISCRETE STORMS GENERALLY ENDS AT AROUND SUNSET/7 PM.
LATER THIS EVENING/NIGHT, THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A
LARGER COMPLEX/LINE OF STORMS TO ENTER INTO THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AT AROUND 8 PM FROM CENTRAL ND, WITH EITHER ADDITIONAL
COMPLEX/LINE OF STORMS OR THE SAME COMPLEX PUSHING
EAST/NORTHEAST ELSEWHERE INTO EASTERN ND, RED RIVER VALLEY, AND
NORTHWEST INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY
MORNING WEDNESDAY HOURS.
MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS LATER ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY GUSTY WINDS
60-70 MPH, LOCALLY 80 MPH, AS WELL AS LINE-EMBEDDED BRIEF
TORNADOES. LINE-EMBEDDED TORNADOES ARE TYPICALLY ON THE WEAKER
SIDE (LESS THAN EF-2 STRENGTH), AND RELATIVELY BRIEF/LOCALIZED,
ALTHOUGH POTENTIALLY NUMEROUS SPIN UPS COULD HAPPEN (LOW
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE). THESE WOULD LIKELY BE CONTINGENT TO
PORTIONS OF THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COMPLEX/LINE THAT ORIENT
THEMSELVES MORE WEST-EAST, AND MORE PERPENDICULAR TO THE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THESE MAY BE INTERMINGLED WITH
SIMILARLY STRENGTHENED STRAIGHT LINED WINDS TO 80 MPH.
WHILE HAIL REMAINS POSSIBLE, HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE MORE ON THE
SMALLER SIZE (UP TO QUARTER INCH), WITH THE EXCEPTION OF IF AN
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURE CAN DEVELOP WITHIN THE
COMPLEX/LINE IN WHICH HAIL COULD BE AS LARGE AS GOLF BALLS.
AND FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH BASED ON RECENT QUESTIONS WE'VE
RECEIVED, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING THIS EVENT TO BE SIMILAR TO
JUNE 20TH 2025'S DERECHO, BASED ON THIS EVENT'S INSTABILITY,
SHEAR, AND FORCING FOR ASCENT PARAMETER SPACING NOT AS ROBUST AS
JUNE 20TH'S.
GETTING INTO WEDNESDAY, ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST
INTO MINNESOTA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH
TO ALLOW FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS AS EARLY AS EARLY
AFTERNOON, LASTING UNTIL AROUND SUNSET. MAIN HAZARDS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD BE LARGE HAIL TO SIZE OF GOLF BALLS, LOCALIZED
GUSTS TO 60 MPH, AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES.
..HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON
AS OF WRITING THIS DISCUSSION, HEAT INDICES WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY ARE IN THE UPPER 90S NEARING 100F. HEAT
INDICES NEARING OR JUST TOUCHING 100 F COMBINED WITH WET-BULB
GLOBE TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 80S AS WELL AS HEAT RISK OF
MODERATE TO MAJOR (LEVELS 2 AND 3 OUT OF 4) WITHIN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY PUSHED THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTFUL TO THOSE MORE SENSITIVE TO
HEAT AS WELL AS THOSE WHO ARE WORKING/EXERCISING OUTSIDE AS WELL
AS TO THOSE WITHOUT A MEANS OF COOLING.
HEAT IMPACTS END AFTER SUNSET THIS AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT WED JUN 10 2026
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY EASTWARD
EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS BROUGHT WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS
EARLIER AT KDVL. THE STRONGEST PART OF THE LINE EXTENDS FROM
NORTH OF VALLEY CITY SOUTHEAST TO NEAR LIDGERWOOD. THIS PART OF
THE LINE IS MOVING MORE NORTHEAST THAN EAST AND HAS PRODUCED
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS. THE LINE SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE GFK AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, KFAR AND KTVF IN
THE 07-09Z TIME FRAME AND KBJI IN THE 08-10Z TIME FRAME. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE LINE CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS
TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. A LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL,
MAINLY AFFECTING KBJI OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LLWS. STORMS
EXIT TO THE EAST BEFORE DAYBREAK WITH A BREAK IN ACTIVITY INTO
AT LEAST MID-MORNING BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP. THUNDERSTORMS MAY AGAIN BE SEVERE DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
EAST OF KDVL.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...BJH/WFO DLH
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