416
FXUS63 KFGF 061920
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
220 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER HUDSON BAY, WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF IT FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES START TO PULL EAST. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
RISE A BIT TOMORROW, AND ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION, THE 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON AN UPWARD PATH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
STRATUS AROUND 3500-6000 FT CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS HANGING AROUND KBJI.
THOSE LOWER CIGS SHOULD LIFT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE VFR
CLOUD COVER THAT REMAINS SHOULD SEE A SLOW DECREASE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE PERIODICALLY
GUSTING UP TO 18 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT GUSTS WILL
DIMINISH RIGHT AROUND 00Z AND WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
LATER IN THE EVENING. A FEW AIRPORTS WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP
AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD, BUT
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 12 KTS. THE UPWARD
TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH NOT SO LARGE
THAT IT COMPLETELY NEGATES THE COLD SIGNAL IN THE ECMWF EFI.
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BRINGING A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND
KNOCKING TEMPS BACK DOWN A BIT. FLOW REMAINS MOSTLY
NORTHWESTERLY AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK. HEIGHTS A BIT HIGHER AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS
EAST AND TEMPS COULD BE BACK ABOVE AVERAGE FOR A TIME, BUT
THERE ARE SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT BRING A SHORTWAVE INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.
IMPACTS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE MOSTLY A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS.
..NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW, BUT DEW POINTS WILL
BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL THEREFORE BE RATHER DRY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON, WITH 50 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RHS BELOW 25 PERCENT ALONG
AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER. A FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN GET BELOW 20
PERCENT, WITH A 30 PERCENT CHANCE IN PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK INTO TOMORROW, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING TO GET WINDS INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH
RANGE. A BIT HIGHER DEW POINTS AND LESS DRY RH VALUES FOR
FRIDAY, BUT WINDS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO NORTHEASTERN MN. WHILE THE WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
THERE THURSDAY AND BETTER RH VALUES ON FRIDAY, BOTH DAYS COULD
SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN A FEW SPOTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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