987  
FXUS63 KFGF 221819  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
119 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019  
 
FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE  
EXCEPTION OF A BIT MORE CU DEVELOPMENT THAN ANTICIPATED. ADJUSTED  
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT STILL THINKING ENOUGH  
SUN/HEATING WILL PUSH US INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 DEGREE MARK  
BY PEAK HEATING.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019  
 
NOT MUCH FOR UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST FOR A  
BEAUTIFUL DAY REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL  
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH PLENTIFUL  
SUNSHINE.  
 
LASTLY, THERE IS A VERY FAINT AREA OF SMOKE TRACKING ACROSS  
NORTHERN MINNESOTA DUE TO FIRES UP IN NORTHERN  
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. HOWEVER, EXPECT THIS TO STAY FAIRLY HIGH AND  
LARGELY UNNOTICEABLE AT THE SURFACE BEFORE DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE  
AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TRACKS EASTWARD.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE  
SHORT TERM.  
 
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THE  
PERIOD, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND EAST.  
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW SOME  
PATCHY FOG, WITH LANGDON AS WELL AS RUGBY AND HARVEY JUST OUTSIDE  
THE CWA SEEING REDUCED VISIBILITY. HOWEVER, EXPECT FOG TO BE VERY  
PATCHY AND SHALLOW, AND WEB CAMS DO NOT SHOW ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.  
MAY INCLUDE A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS IN OUR WESTERN  
TIER, BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AND ANY FOG  
WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT  
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WINDS  
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT  
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. MIXING WILL  
KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND  
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME MIXING AND PLENTY OF SUN HELPING  
US GET INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019  
 
A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK WITH  
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT  
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO  
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.  
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL  
PROMOTE A POLEWARD FLUX OF WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS,  
AND WILL PROMOTE HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S FOR WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL  
PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  
 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...  
 
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY STRONG  
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ORBIT AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF  
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DEEPENING  
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN ND LATE WEDNESDAY AND PROPAGATE  
EASTWARD INTO THE DEVILS LAKE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,  
THOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF  
THE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.  
 
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,  
COMES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN ND AND  
NORTHWEST MN. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE  
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED  
SEVERE CONVECTION, THOUGH SPECIFICS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS  
TIME.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THURSDAY'S SYSTEM WILL  
BRING RELATIVELY CALMER WEATHER FOR THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
A FEW COLD-ADVECTION INDUCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST MN  
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED FOR BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE  
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.  
 
A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PROMOTE  
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEKEND. WHILE  
MODEL SPREAD IS TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME TO KNOW ANY SPECIFICS, THE  
GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN GUIDANCE IS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF  
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019  
 
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS  
QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE  
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW POCKETS OF CEILINGS AROUND 4 KFT BUT DID NOT  
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME AS THINGS ARE MORE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 5-6  
KFT RANGE.  
 
AFTER CLOUDS DIE OFF FOLLOWING SUNSET, CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED  
OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...LEE  
SHORT TERM...JR  
LONG TERM...AM  
AVIATION...LEE  
 
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