981
FXUS63 KFGF 291731
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1231 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
MILD TEMPERATURES AND REASONABLE DEWPOINTS WOULD CREATE GREAT
CONDITIONS FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, BUT UNFORTUNATELY AIR QUALITY
CONTINUES TO BE VARIABLE/POOR DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE MOVING IN FROM
CANADA. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN ORIGINALLY
FORECAST AS EXPECTED AND UNLESS THICKER SMOKE BREAKS UP IN MN WE
MAY NOT BE FAR FROM OUR AFTERNOON HIGHS AT SOME LOCATIONS. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO NEAR TERM TRENDS AND TO EXPAND MENTION OF
SMOKE INTO THE EVENING BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS. WHILE LOW LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING IT MAY
BE TOO WEAK TO SCOUR OUT SMOKE COMPLETELY UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. AS
WE HAVE SEEN IN PREVIOUS EVENTS IN JULY, I COULD SEE SMOKE
IMPACTS CONTINUE AT LEAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DAYTIME
MIXING ALLOWS SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE
TO SCOUR OUT THE WORST OF THE CONDITIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 955 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
SMOKE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST
MN AND IN THE RRV OF ND, WITH VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BELOW MILE
BEING REPORTED WHERE HIGHER CONCENTRATIONS OF NEAR SURFACE SMOKE
ARE. BESIDES AIR QUALITY ISSUES AND AVIATION IMPACTS, THE SMOKE AS
THE POTENTIAL TO LIMIT WARMING TODAY AND WE MAY SEE HIGHS FALL
UNDER NBM BY 2-5F BASED ON PREVIOUS SMOKE EVENTS IN JULY. I MADE
CONSERVATIVE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WHERE THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATIONS OF
SMOKE ARE, AND WILL MONITOR TRENDS FOR TEMPS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
A BIT OF SMOKE BEING REPORTED AT A FEW SITES, BUT OTHERWISE PRETTY
QUIET THIS MORNING. EXTENDED SMOKE MENTION A BIT FURTHER WEST FAST
THAN WHAT WE HAD GOING AS SOME SITES ARE ALREADY REPORTING IT IN
THE RRV. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES TO WHAT WE HAD GOING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
TEMPERATURES AND HOW MUCH SMOKE WE GET FROM CANADA WILL BE THE
MAIN CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TODAY. THOSE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING SMOKE FROM ONTARIO WILDFIRES INTO
PORTIONS OF WESTERN MN TODAY, AND HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO LOWER
VIS A BIT ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN BORDER. THE HRRR AND CANADIAN
SMOKE MODELS BOTH PUSH THE NEAR SURFACE SMOKE TO THE RED RIVER
VALLEY BY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP THE MENTION WE HAVE GOING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THINK WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH
MOVING EAST TONIGHT, AND WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE WESTERLY
DIRECTION TOMORROW, THERE WILL BE LESS IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL
SMOKE FOR TOMORROW. HOWEVER, THE CANADIAN SMOKE MODEL IS HINTING
AT SOME RECIRCULATION, SO WILL KEEP AN EYE OUT AND ADD IT LATER IF
NEEDED.
THE NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO BRING SOME COOL AIR ADVECTION, WITH MUCH
LOWER DEW POINTS THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MUCH MORE
SEASONABLE THAN LATELY, REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. ANOTHER
FAIRLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT THANKS TO DRY DEW POINTS, ALTHOUGH
READINGS WILL BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE WEST WHERE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS START TO PICK UP. TEMPS WILL AGAIN CLIMB INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 80S FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT.
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOSTLY
MISS US TO THE SOUTH, BUT ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA COULD BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO OUR FAR NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MOISTURE AND THEREFORE 4CAPE VALUES ARE
PRETTY WEAK, SO THINK THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE NOT SUPER HIGH.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET ALTHOUGH IMPACTS FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES ARE POSSIBLE ON DAYS WITH NORTHERLY OR
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, A LONG STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER
WILL PROVIDE ZERO RELIEF TO THE DRY SUMMER.
BROAD RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN/CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL AMPLIFY THIS
WEEKEND AND RESULT IN AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER WILL KEEP THE AREA TEMPERATURES MORE
SEASONAL, WITH NEARLY EVERY DAY EXCEPT SATURDAY EXPERIENCING
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S. SATURDAY WILL HAVE BREEZY, NORTHERLY
WINDS THAT WILL HELP KEEP AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE UPPER 70S. R
AND M CLIMATE PERCENTILES SHOW NO SIGNAL OF ANY PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD, HOWEVER M-CLIMATE H850 TEMPERATURES DO
SHOW STRONG H850 TEMPS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT CUTTING ACROSS THE CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME SORT OF WAA SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
DAY 7, AND CONSEQUENTLY THE NBM HAS INTRODUCED LOW POPS NEXT
THURSDAY.
SMOKE ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE, WITH SATURDAY AFTERNOON SEEING THE STRONGEST
WINDS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
VARIABLE VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN
AND SOME CEILINGS REPORTED DUE TO THICK SMOKE MOVING OUT OF
CANADA IN LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. MVFR TO IFR AT TIMES SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON MAINLY WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN
ND AND ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WITH VFR FAVORED FURTHER WEST TOWARDS
KDVL. SMOKE MODELS SHOW VISIBILITIES IMPROVING OVERNIGHT WITH A
SHIFT IN LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST, BUT LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
MAY KEEP SMOKE TRAPPED NEAR THE SURFACE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING AFTER
SUNSET WHEN WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15KT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...SPEICHER
AVIATION...DJR
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