963
FXUS63 KFGF 040411
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1111 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS, WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH, AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THREATS.
- HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IN
URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE AREAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
THUNDERSTORMS LINGERING IN LAKES COUNTRY OF CENTRAL MN CONTINUE
TO MIGRATE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THIS IS THE LAST GASP OF THIS
EVENING'S POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL, OF WHICH IS EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY WINDS WILL REMAIN TONIGHT WITHIN THE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS AS WELL AS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUESDAY WILL FEEL LIKE AN EARLY FALL DAY - THE FIRST OF THE
SEASON. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG WITH
MUCH LESS HUMIDITY. TOMORROW NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE
CRISP AND COOL WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 40S FOR
SEVERAL LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SW FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, WITH A PV HEIGHT ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTING INTO EASTERN ND WITHIN THIS FLOW. HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS IN SD TO THE SOUTH OF THIS PV ANOMALY COULD BE THE NEXT
AREA OF FORCING THAT COULD TRIGGER INITIATION ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
IN THE 22-00Z PERIOD. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM
LAKE OF THE WOODS TO JUST SOUTH OF GRAND FORKS AND JUST WEST OF
FARGO AND IS STARTING TO SHOW SIGNS OF MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ON
RADAR/SATELLITE AHEAD OF THIS MID LEVEL WAVE. GOOD FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND AT LEAST ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (SOME SEVERE) INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
DRY/STABLE AIR ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH/UPPER LOW BECOMES A MORE DOMINATE FEATURE
FOR OUR REGION THROUGH THE WEEK AS IT STALLS AND DEEPENS OVER THE
HUDSON BAY REGION AND FLATTENS THE LARGER SCALE RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH. THIS RESULTS IN EITHER WEAKER NW FLOW OR WESTERLY FLOW AND
THE STRONGER STORM TRACK MAINLY REMAINING IN CANADA. HOWEVER, FLOW
WILL AT LEAST PERIODICALLY ALLOW FOR SOME INFLUENCE OF WAVES
ROUNDING THE MID/UPPER LOW AND PERIODIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THE SIGNAL FOR POPS IS GENERALLY WASHED OUT BY THE VARIABILITY OF
THESE FEATURES IN CANADA, AND MACHINE LEARNING IS NOT HIGHLIGHTING A
SPECIFIC PERIOD FOR IMPACTS.
AFTER COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY, THIS PATTERN WILL
GENERALLY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN SEASONAL RANGES FOR MOST DAYS INTO
THE WEEKEND (+/- 1 STANDARD DEVIATION OF NORMAL), AND A BREAK FROM
THE MUCH HOTTER TEMPERATURES IN THE 90+ RANGE.
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK TODAY..
VERY HIGH EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH VALUES ALREADY IN
THE 50-70KT RANGE ACROSS OUR CWA. AS DEEPER LAYER SHEAR VECTORS WILL
TEND TO BE PARALLEL OR NEAR PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL ZONE THERE SHOULD
BE A TENDENCY FOR CLUSTERING OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERE MODE AND COVERAGE WILL
ULTIMATELY COME DOWN TO TIMING OF INITIATION AND CONTINUED
DESTABILIZATION ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEFORE SUNSET.
SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT, HOWEVER DISCRETE MODE
MAY BE HARD TO COME BY OUTSIDE OF THE EARLY PART OF INITIATION.
TORNADO THREAT WILL REQUIRE SURFACE BASED PARCELS WHICH FOR NOW
APPEAR HARD TO COME BY, HOWEVER WITH CLEARING THAT IS JUST STARTING
TO OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST ND/WEST CENTRAL MN AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAP
EROSION COULD CONTINUE AND CREATE A WINDOW FOR THIS THREAT EARLY IN
THE EVENT WITH RIGHT MOVERS THAT DO DEVELOP. MORE LIKELY SCENARIOS
FAVOR ELEVATED CELLS AND AT LEAST A WINDOW FOR TRANSIENT ELEVATED
SUPERCELL THREAT WHICH WOULD PRIMARILY FAVOR LARGE HAIL AS A THREAT.
WHETHER CLUSTERS CAN GROW UPSCALE WITH STRONG ENOUGH COLD POOLS IN
THIS SHEAR PROFILES. LINE NORMAL VECTORS ARE GOING TO TEND TO BE
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST (THOUGH THE CRITICAL ANGLE WILL BE A BIT
HIGHER DUE TO THE STRONG SHEAR ENVIRONMENT).
BACKWARD PROPAGATION OR TRAINING POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE
RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN THREAT PARTICULARLY
WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5" ALONG THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT SHOULD BE
PROGRESSING QUICKLY EASTWARD THERE SHOULDN'T BE MORE THAN 1-3HR OF
THIS TYPE OF TRAINING, BUT THIS COULD BE ENOUGH WITH HIGHER RATS FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL IF THIS HAPPENS OVER A TOWN/URBAN
AREA WHERE THERE IS POOR DRAINAGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2026
IFR CEILINGS AT KBJI ARE THE MAIN IMPACT WITHIN TAFS. THESE
CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z BEFORE
LIFTING INTO MVFR AND IFR BY 15Z. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE IS ALSO
FORECAST UNDERNEATH THESE IFR CEILINGS AT KBJI AS WELL.
WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE 09Z.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST, WITH
GUSTS 15-20KT DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
ROOTED GENERALLY AROUND 4KFT ARE ALSO FORECAST AT ALL TAF SITES.
FOG IS UNLIKELY TONIGHT DUE TO WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...CJ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page