650
FXUS63 KFGF 170446
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1146 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SWATH OF WINTRY PRECIP (2-4" OF SNOW) WILL FALL TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WITH ICING IN NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA BRINGING MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
HEAVY SNOW RATES ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO OVERCOME THE WARM ROAD
TEMPS IN FAR EASTERN MT/NORTHWEST SD/ SOUTHWEST ND THIS EVENING
WITH SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS. AS THE BAND OF EXPECTED HEAVY SNOW
CONTINUES TO WORK EAST ALONG THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW
IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN HEAVY SNOW RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1"/HR
WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ND WHERE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR 2-4" OF SNOW WITH ANY AREAS
THAT SEE MORE STATIONARY BANDING FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD PERHAPS
SEEING UP TO 6" ON A VERY LOCAL BASIS. ON THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE PRECIP SHIELD THERE WILL BE A WARM NOSE WITH MIXED PHASE
PTYPES (SLEET/FREEZING RAIN). STILL SEEING UP TO A 20% CHANCE
FOR A 0.10" OR MORE OF FREEZING RAIN WITHIN THE ADVISORY
COUNTIES. HOWEVER ROAD TEMPS FROM VALLEY CITY TO CROOKSTON TO
ROSEAU AND SOUTH PER RWIS SITES ARE ALL STILL SITTING NEAR OR
ABOVE 40 AS OF 9PM AND THUS THERE ARE DOUBTS ON IF THE MAJORITY
OF SURFACES COOL ENOUGH TO SEE IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN IN
THOSE AREAS OF THE ADVISORY (BRIDGES WILL COOL FASTER AND LIKELY
BE WORSE THAN SURFACE ROADS.)
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
..SYNOPSIS
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A POSITIVELY ORIENTATED TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, WITH A CLOSED LOW NEAR NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
IS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS
ORIENTATED OVER SOUTHERN MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FIRE WEATHER
IMPACTS ARE ONGOING WITHIN THE CURRENT PATTERN AHEAD OF A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. THE CLOSED LOW TO THE WEST TRACKING
THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
A WINTRY MIX TONIGHT, ALONG WITH COOLER/BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THIS WEEKEND.
RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN US THEN INTO THE CENTRAL
US NEXT WEEK, WITH RISING HEIGHTS AND EVENTUAL LEE TROUGHING
ALONG THE ROCKIES SUPPORTING WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG WITH DEEPER DRY AIR. THIS PATTERN MAY
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR FIRE WEATHER IMPACTS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR LONG WAVE TROUGHING
LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THAT COULD BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BACK TO OUR REGION. AT THIS TIME THERE IS NOT A SIGNAL
FOR WINTER IMPACTS OR HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THAT
PATTERN SHIFT.
..WINTRY MIX TONIGHT THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE
AS THE CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW PASSES ALONG/NORTH OF THE US/CANADA
BORDER AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL PASS INTO THE REGION
WHERE STRONG FRONTOGENESIS WILL SUPPORT AN AREA OF WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH EMBEDDED BANDING PRIMARILY IN NORTHEAST
ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN. THIS ARRIVES AS THE MAIN/STRONGER PUSH
OF CAA UNDERCUTS STRONG WAA LOFT RESULTING IN A PRONOUNCED WARM
NOSE OVER OUR CWA. FORCING WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EAST AND
NORTHEAST RESULTING IN DECREASING PRECIPITATION RATES AND
COVERAGE LATE MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND LOWERING
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS OVER SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
ALONG THIS AXIS ALL PRECIPITATION TYPES (FREEZING RAIN, SLEET,
SNOW) COULD OCCUR UNTIL THE DEEPER COLD PUSHES IN ALOFT
(BEHIND THE MAIN AXIS OF PRECIPITATION). WHERE MORE OF A WINTRY
MIX OCCURS, ACCUMULATING SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE
LIGHT ICING IMPACTS AND SLICK TRAVEL IMPACTS THROUGH THE FRIDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. WHERE BANDING CORRELATES WITH DEEPER COLD
PROFILES PRIMARILY SNOW MAY LEAD TO 2-3" OF LOCALIZED TOTALS AND
BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS/FALLING SNOW. THE
MAIN TRANSITION ZONE AND TRACK OF THE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
AREA AS ADVERTISED BY BOTH NBM, HREF, AND REFS IS FROM BARNES
COUNTY TO GRAND FORKS COUNTIES. HREF PROBS FOR A GLAZE OF ICE
EXCEED 70% ALONG THIS AXIS WITH 30-40% PROBS FOR 0.1" OF ICE.
NBM PROBS ARE A BIT LOWER, BUT STILL SHOW A 70% NEIGHBORHOOD
PROBABILITY FOR AT LEAST A LIGHT GLAZE IN NORTHEAST ND AND FAR
NORTHWEST MN. WHILE THERE IS A SIGNAL/CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST, CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CURRENT CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS ADVISORY CONDITIONS PRIMARILY IN NORTHEAST ND AND
NORTHWEST MN. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT
TO 10AM CDT WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN TRAVEL IMPACTS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
SHOWERS ARE ONGOING IN AND AROUND BJI AND FAR WITH THIS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES SURPRISINGLY OBSERVED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS NEAR BJI.
SNOW MOVING IN WEST TO EAST IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS FOR ALL BUT BJI
WHO WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL THE LATE MORNING FOR ANYTHING MORE
THAN ON AND OFF SHOWERS. MVFR IS QUICKLY OVERSPREADING ND SITES
AND WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT MN SITES BY 12Z WITH ALL SITES
REACHING NEAR IFR (SUB 1500FT) AND POCKETS OF IFR (CURRENTLY
FAVORING DVL, TVF, AND BJI) BETWEEN NOW AND NOON. HOW PERSISTENT
THESE IFR CEILINGS ARE IS UNKNOWN AS THEY MAY JUMP AROUND A BIT
DEPENDING ON PRECIP RATES. BLSN STILL LOOKING POSSIBLE IN DVL
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING FALLING SNOW
THE NEXT 6 HOURS. FREEZING RAIN STILL LOOKS TO IMPACT GFK, TVF
AND POSSIBLY FAR BUT LOWEST CONFIDENCE WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ001-004-
005-007-008-013.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT
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