005  
FXUS63 KFGF 250550  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1150 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
-WEAK SYSTEM SUNDAY BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH  
DAKOTA SUNDAY MORNING AND ANOTHER PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS.  
 
-STRONGER SYSTEM MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY BRINGS ACCUMULATING  
SNOW TO THE AREA. LOOK FOR A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF 2 INCHES OR  
MORE SNOW ON TUESDAY, ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND BLOWING  
SNOW.  
 
-THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH  
TUESDAY SYSTEM WILL BE GREATEST WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND  
ADJACENT COUNTIES.  
 

 
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1002 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED ENOUGH THAT THERE HAVE BEEN OCCASIONAL  
REPORTS OF FLURRIES IN OUR NORTHWEST (CANDO, ND), BUT THERE  
REMAIN NO REPORTS OF ACCUMULATIONS OR IMPACTS. I MADE SOME  
ADJUSTEMET TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD  
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200.  
 
THERE IS STILL A BETTER SIGNAL FOR LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY MORNING  
FROM DEVILS LAKE TO FARGO AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEAST.  
COVERAGE MAY BE HIGHER BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS BUT AMOUNTS  
WOULD BE LOWER (PROBABILITIES FOR 0.1" OF SNOWFALL ARE IN THE  
10-20% RANGE AND THE PROBS FOR 1" OR HIGHER ARE EVENT LESS). I  
MADE SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX SUNDAY MORNING TO  
MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS IN HREF/NBM, BUT OVERALL MESSAGING FOR  
THAT PERIOD HASN'T CHANGED.  
 
ISSUED AT 653 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
LIGHT RETURNS ON THE MINOT RADAR HAVE BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH  
BRIEF REPORTS OF LIGHT RAIN (SPRINKLES) IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA  
BUT AS THIS HAS SPREAD EAST IT HAS SHOWN WEAKENING TRENDS. BASES  
ARE GENERALLY HIGH AND THE AIR MASS REMAINS FAIRLY DRY THORUGH  
A DEEP LAYER. EVEN MAX OF HREF MEMBERS DOESN'T SHOW ACCUMULATION  
WITH THIS ACTIVITY, SO WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES REMAIN POSSIBLE  
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY AS THIS  
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL TEND TO REMAIN  
HIGHER AS IT PASSES, SO FOR FLURRIES IT WILL PROBABLY REQUIRE  
THE ACTIVITY TO LINGER MUCH LATER TONIGHT. MESSAGING IS  
GENERALLY ON POINT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHTLY  
BETTER SIGNAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT  
STARTS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE WEST (SIGNAL FOR LIGHT  
RAIN OR SNOW IS TOWARDS OUR WESTERN CWA). NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS  
MADE DURING THIS UPDATE CYCLE, WITH ADJUSTMENTS MAINLY TO  
REFLECT NEAR TERM TRENDS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS  
DIMINISHING GRADUALLY THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE IN  
ADVANCE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL  
FALL INTO THE 20S.  
 
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY  
MORNING MAINLY DRIVEN BY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THOUGH LIMITED  
MOISTURE WILL PREVENT MUCH IF ANY ACCUMULATION. A FEW WEAK PASSING  
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN MID LEVEL WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SYNOPTIC SUPPORT  
FROM AN ANTICYCLONIC JET STREAK PROVIDING WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THE  
FIRST OF TWO SYSTEMS ARRIVES SUNDAY EVENING AND LINGERS INTO MONDAY  
WITH MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF A DEVELOPING SFC  
LOW IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA CAUSING P-TYPE CONCERNS ESPECIALLY AS THE  
850MB WARM NOSE STRADDLES THE 0C ISOTHERM. COMBINE THIS WITH THE  
INTRODUCTION OF A LOW LEVEL DRY SLOT AND FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL  
ARISES. THANKFULLY SEEING < 10% FOR ANY ACCUMULATION OF SAID  
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN. QPF TOTALS WITH THIS FIRST WAVE LOOK TO MAX  
OUT AROUND 0.10" NEAR THE INTL BORDER WITH UP TO 1" OF SNOW IN  
NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE WINDS AT TIMES COULD GUST UPWARDS OF 30 MPH  
WITH THIS FIRST ROUND OF PRECIP WIDESPREAD BLOWING IS UNLIKELY DUE  
TO UNDERWHELMING SNOW RATES AND A LACK OF EXISTING SNOWPACK.  
 
A SECOND AND MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE MONDAY EVENING FROM  
THE EAST. A DEEP 500 MB TROUGH WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS WITH A DEVELOPING SFC LOW TRACKING THROUGH SD AND SOUTHERN MN  
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES SEEM IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE  
GENERAL TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WITH THE EURO ENS DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY  
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE WHICH COULD RESULT  
IN HIGHER QPF DUE TO STRONGER MASS RESPONSE. REGARDLESS THERE IS A  
STRONG INDICATION FOR A DEVELOPING SFC LOW WITH STRONG COLD AIR  
ADVECTION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS  
OF EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE 25TH  
TO 75TH PERCENTILE OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE RESULTS IN 1-3" OF SNOW.  
SIGNAL FROM HIGHER RES GUIDANCE FOR F-GEN SHOWS POTENTIAL OF LOCALLY  
HIGHER TOTALS. CLUSTER ANALYSIS SHOWS TWO MAIN SCENARIOS WITH 3  
OF 4 CLUSTERS SHOWING A 50% CHANCE FOR 0.25+" OF QPF WITH SLR  
OF 12-18:1 FAVORING THE HIGHER END OF THAT 1-3" RANGE. THE  
OUTLIER IS A PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH LESS RESIDENCE AND LOWER  
QPF. COMBINE THIS NEW RELATIVELY DRY SNOW AND A STRONG PRESSURE  
GRADIENT ALIGNED DOWN THE VALLEY BEHIND THE EXITING SNOW AND  
BLOWING SNOW BECOMES LIKELY (> 70%) ACROSS MUCH OF THE VALLEY  
WHEREVER SNOWPACK EXISTS TUESDAY.  
 
MUCH COLDER WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS NEARING 0F BEFORE HIGHS REBOUND  
INTO THE 40S AND 50S TO END THE WEEK THOUGH ANY AREAS ABLE TO  
HOLD ONTO SNOWPACK COULD SEE THOSE VALUES TEMPERED A BIT. AFTER  
AN ACTIVE FEW DAYS DRY WEATHER PERSISTS BEYOND WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SAT FEB 24 2024  
 
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS (BRIEFLY CHANGING OVER TO FLURRIES AT  
TIMES) ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST ND AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST MN  
AND SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION AFTER 08-09Z. WEST-NORTHWEST  
WINDS AROUND 10KT SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION, THEN SHIFTING  
TO THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE  
WEST. THERE MAY BE SEVERAL MORE WEAK WAVES THAT COULD BRING  
LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS  
EXPECTED AT TAF SITES DURING THIS TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS  
SHOULD PREVAIL, THOUGH POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS CAN'T BE  
RULED OUT WITH PRECIPITATION (PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT).  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...DJR  
DISCUSSION...LYNCH  
AVIATION...DJR  
 
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