067
FXUS63 KFGF 021732
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1132 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOWFALL MAY IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS MIDDAY INTO AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, MAINLY WEST OF DEVILS LAKE
AND WEST OF FARGO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WESTERLY 500 MB FLOW INTO SOUTHERN BC AND WASHINGTON STATE
BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH MEAN
TROUGH POSITION ALONG THE US EAST COAST. THIS PATTERN WE HAVE
BEEN IN FOR MOST OF THE WINTER CONTINUES BUT DOES LATE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BREAK DOWN SOME AS UPPER TROUGH AND COLD AIR
LESSENS AND FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN ABOUT 7-10 DAYS. UNTIL THEN, UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE INTO ALBERTA AND THEN A TRACK
SOUTHEAST THRU THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EVENTUALLY THE TRACK OF
THESE WAVES WILL BE MORE NORTH/EAST OF THE AREA AS MILDER AIR
TRIES TO MOVE IN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WED-THU. 500 MB WAVE IS
SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS EARLY MORNING IN NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA AND THIS WAVE WILL BE IN NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL
MONTANA AT 12Z TODAY AND THEN THRU SW ND INTO NORTH CENTRAL SD
BY 18Z TODAY THEN TOWARD SE SD 00Z TUE.
..TODAY SNOWFALL
CLOUDS PREVALENT TO START TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
DRIER 925-850 MB AIRMASS UPSTREAM IN MANITOBA NORTH OF WINNIPEG.
DRIER NORTH WIND 10 KTS WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA
AND KEEP THE SNOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST MOVING SHORT WAVE MORE SO
NW INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ND INTO NORTHEAST SD. USING A BLEND OF
VARIOUS CAMS AND HREF A NARROW ZONE OF ENHANCED LIFT AIDED BY
850 MB WARM ADVECTION IS QUITE NOTICEABLE IN THE REGINA-ESTEVAN
SK TO MINOT-JAMESTOWN REGION THRU EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE
WEAKENING. CAMS AND HREF INDICATE NARROW ZONE OF POTENTIAL 3+
INCH OF SNOW IN THAT ZONE AS WELL. ALL INDICATIONS FROM THE WARM
ADVECTION ZONE THAT THIS HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL STAY TO OUR
WEST....WITH EASTERN EDGE OF SNOWFALL TODAY LIMITED TO DVL-FAR
AND WEST/SOUTH WITH DEVILS LAKE AND FARGO CITIES PROPER ON THE
FAR EAST EDGE OF ANY SNOW. HEAVIER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL IS JUST
WEST OF THE OUR AREA, WITH 1 INCH OR SO OF SNOW WESTERN BENSON
COUNTY TO VALLEY CITY/BARNES COUNTY AREA. FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING IS PRESENT AS WELL, BUT SEEMS A BIT DISPLACED TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM MAIN 850 MB WARM ADVECTION AND LIKELY SNOW AREA
AND ALSO IT IS TRANSIENT SO NOT SET OVER ONE AREA.
SNOW CHANCES END LATE TODAY/EARLY EVENING IN SE ND. HIGH
PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH INTO S MANITOBA TONIGHT WILL BRING DRIER
AIRMASS AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TO NORTHERN RRV AND NW
MN. LINGERING CLOUDS MAY HOLD INTO TUESDAY WESTERN AND FAR SOUTH
FCST AREA, WITH SOME FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT IN CENTRAL ND. THIS AREA OF 850 MB MOISTURE MAY WELL
SPREAD BACK EAST TUESDAY BRINGING A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR ADVECTION DRIVES A
LOW LEVEL STATUS DECK ACROSS THE REGION WITH A PASSING WAVE TO
THE WEST IN CENTRAL ND. TVF AND BJI ARE SOMEWHAT ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THIS AND MAY BRIEFLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON BUT ERROR ON
THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND KEPT THIS MORE ON THE WORSE END OF WHATS
POSSIBLE FOR PLANNING PURPOSES. MVFR/IFR THEN LOOKS LIKELY
AFTER 06Z AS ANOTHER WAVE BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS
TOMORROW.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...TT
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