012
FXUS63 KFGF 101216
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
616 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER THRU NEXT MONDAY.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE PERIOD TODAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
LIGHT SNOW NOTED IN WINNIPEG AND KENORA IN THE PAST 2 HOURS AND
RADAR SHOWS THOSE LIGHT RETURNS FROM WOODLANDS RADAR MOVING
SOUTHEAST AND SEEING 5SM -SN AT WARROAD AT 12Z. SO IDEA OF
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW INTO LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA TODAY (ESP
THIS AM) IS LOOKING GOOD. OTHERWISE SEEING PRETTY SIGNIFICANT
CLEARING WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST AND EASTWARD WITH CLEARING OF
THE CLOUDS REACHING DVL HERE AT 12Z AND CLEAR HOLES INTO GFK AS
WELL SO DID UPDATE SKY COVER TO FASTER CLEARING INTO E ND AND
RRV.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
..SYNOPSIS
MAIN 500 MB LOW IS IN NW ONTARIO THIS EARLY MORNING NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THE ARE SEVERAL WEAKER 500 MB SHORT WAVES MOVING
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND THE UPPER LOW WITH ONE SET TO AFFECT LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION TODAY. UPSTREAM RADARS IN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO INDICATE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND WOULD EXPECT A PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES SAGGING SOUTHEAST INTO LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION, POSSIBLY TO BEMIDJI AND AS FAR WEST AS THIEF RIVER FALLS
AND HALLOCK. TRACE AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL. CLOUDS WILL HOLD ALL DAY
IN THIS REGION OF NW MINNESOTA WITH HIGHS TODAY LOW 20S.
REST OF THE AREA WILL START WITH CLOUD COVER WITH COLD ADVECTION
STRATOCU OVER THE AREA, BUT SOME CLEARING NOTED IN MANITOBA WEST
OF WINNIPEG SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO E ND AND RRV AND
EVENTUALLY WEST CENTRAL MN THRU THE DAY. PRETTY SHARP TEMP
GRADIENT TODAY AND LIKELY TO THE CASE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
WITH COLDER READINGS NW MN TO MILDER TEMPS SOUTHWEST FCST AREA
(WEST/SOUTH OF FARGO) WHERE SNOW COVER IS MORE PATCHY. TODAY
WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY AND WARMING UP WITH FRIDAY SEEING HIGHS
UPPER 30S NW MN TO NEAR 50 IN FORMAN, VALLEY CITY. SIMILAR TEMPS
INTO SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW FREEZING
ALL AREAS SO MELT WILL REMAIN GRADUAL AND ALSO DEGREE OF SNOW
MELT DEPENDENT ON IF SUNSHINE OR CLOUDS PREVAIL WHICH AT THIS
POINT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL AS 500 MB FLOW REMAINS WESTERLY WITH
EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING THRU. LIMITED MOISTURE THOUGH
MEANS DRY CONDITIONS THRU SUNDAY.
WHAT SYSTEM HAD BEEN PROGGED TO GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW TO FAR SE ND OR WEST CENTRAL MN THURSDAY IS NOW A LOT
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH.
NEXT WEEK PRECIPIATION CHANCES TIED TO IF A FULL LONGITUDE
TROUGH WILL FORM IN THE WESTERN US AND ENOUGH RIDGING IN THE
EASTERN US TO BRING FULL SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INTO THE AREA.
YOU HAVE TO GO OUT TO DAY 8-10 RANGE TO VIEW ENSEMBLES THAT WANT
TO BRING HIGHER CHANCES OF MOISTURE INTO THE LOCAL REGION.
CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS LOW AS THE LONG RANGE INDICATED SIMILAR
POTENTIAL FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND SEVERAL DAYS AGO AND THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND WILL STAY WELL SOUTH AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
NOT REACHING THE NORTHERN PLAINS LIKE IT WAS PROGGED 10 DAYS
AGO.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 AM CST TUE FEB 10 2026
CLEARING IS WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST AND EASTWARD A BIT FASTER
THAN THOUGHT EARLIER. OFTEN TEND TO BE MORE PESSIMISTIC THIS
TIME OF YEAR STILL WITH CLEARING NOTED IN MODEL DATA. BUT IT IS
OCCURRING SO THINKING SCT CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY IN DVL AND CLOUDS
CLEARING INTO GFK, FAR AND TVF HERE THIS MORNING. WHERE THE
CLOUDS ARE THEY ARE MVFR CATEGORY. NW WIND TODAY 12-20 KTS GUSTS
25-28 KTS, DIMINISHING LATE TODAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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