581
FXUS63 KFGF 142332
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD
BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT WEEK. H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES
REMAIN QUITE LOW NORTH THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES ARRIVES MONDAY, BRINGING DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC, WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH LOW FREEZING HEIGHTS TO
PRESENT A HAIL THREAT DURING THE STRONGEST STORMS. MOST
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE; HOWEVER, HAIL UP
TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES A
BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY, BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE LARGER BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE AREA. REINFORCING COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGHS STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 DEGREES IN MOST
PLACES. ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES EMERGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING HIGH
AND MID CLOUDS DURING THE LATER HALF OF IT. WINDS THAT ARE
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP OFF IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO, WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION BECOMING
BRIEFLY SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT. WINDS SHIFT AGAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD, AND MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD, ALTHOUGH THEY MAY NOT REACH KBJI BEFORE
THE END OF THE PERIOD. THUS, PUT IN SOME PROB30 GROUPS FOR ALL
BUT OUR EASTERNMOST TAF SITES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...JR
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