777
FXUS63 KFGF 081216
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
716 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOP TODAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY IN MINNESOTA.
- NEXT STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CHANCE IS LATER FRIDAY FOR PARTS
OF FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
700-300 MB FLOW ALOFT IS SOUTHWEST AS UPPER LOW IS MOVING
NORTHEAST TO NORTH OF REGINA SK. AN AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
BEEN EXPANDING FROM FAR SE ND INTO NW MN. AN AREA OF MID CLOUDS
AND SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE BEEN FROM BISMARCK UP THRU
DEVILS LAKE TO LANGDON THE PAST 1-3 HOURS. THEY ARE MOVING
NORTHEAST AS WELL. UNSURE HOW LONG THESE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LAST
AND IF THEY WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK EAST WITH TIME THIS MORNING.
KEPT THE WIND ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR TODAY IN PLACE BUT
DID ALTER THE START TIME. KEPT 15Z FOR DEVILS LAKE BASIN BUT DID
DELAY UNTIL 18Z FOR THE NORTH RRV AS WINDS SPEEDS WILL TAKE A
BIT OF TIME TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE NORTH VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON SEP 7 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS HEAD OF A
STRONGER MID/UPPER TROUGH/UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS UPPER LOW TRACKS EAST AND DEEPENS OVER
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND PASSES NORTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. THERE IS MORE VARIATION IN DETAILS BEYOND TUESDAY
REGARDING ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES AND RAIN
COVERAGE/CHANCES, THOUGH WE STILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
TEMPERATURES DESPITE A SHIFT TOWARDS WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR A MUCH MORE
SUBSTANTIAL SHIFT IN FLOW ALOFT FAVORING DECREASING HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND (HIGHS IN
THE 60S). THE MOST LIKELY PERIODS OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
(THUNDERSTORMS THEN WIND).
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAIN RISK
ONGOING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAIN WEAKER IN
A MUCH MORE ELEVATED AIRMASS FEATURING SKINNY CAPE PROFILES
BUT STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR. CURRENT ACTIVITY DEVELOPED WITH THE
NOSE OF A LLJ AND ELEVATED WAA IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AND
BESIDES HEAVY RAIN/LIGHTING IT MAY ONLY FEATURE A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT. EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER IS ALSO LINGERING, WHICH MAY LOWER
OUR WINDOW FOR SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
SURFACE PATTERN INDICATES SURFACE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN ND, WITH
SEVERAL FRONTS INTERSECTING NEAR DICKINSON. THE DEEPENING OF THIS
SURFACE LOW AND POSITION/TIMING OF THESE FRONTS BEFORE SUNSET
WILL BE CRITICAL FOR ANY POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT TO
OUR WEST THAT MAY TRACK INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN/EASTERN ND
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FORCING IS MUCH MORE DIFFUSE BEFORE
THE MAIN TROUGH STARTS SHIFTING EAST LATER THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT, SO COVERAGE/INITIATION CARRIES MORE
UNCERTAIN. STILL, WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE CLEARING DEVELOPS
DECENT INSTABILITY PROFILES MAY COINCIDE WITH STRONGLY VEERED
HODOGRAPHS/STRONG SHEAR FAVORABLE OF SUPERCELLS AND A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR HAIL AROUND THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND A
CONDITIONS RISK FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. SOME CAMS (MAINLY RUNS
OF THE HRRR) HAVE SUPPORTED SUPERCELL DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST AND
POTENTIALLY TRACKING EAST INTO OUR WEST. THE FARTHER EAST AND
THE LATER ACTIVITY LINGERS/TRACKS ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO BECOME
WEAKER WITH MORE OF A MARGINAL HAIL RISK.
HIGHER PWATS IN PLACE RAISES POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN AS WITH PREVIOUS DAYS, AND ANY
SLOWER MOVING/TRAINING CLUSTERS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 712 AM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
TO START OFF TODAY THERE IS A BAND OF LOWER MVFR AND IFR
CEILING SOUTHEAST ND THRU NW MN. WEST OF IT IS SOME MID CLOUDS
THEN CLEAR WEST OF DVL. THE LOWER CLOUDS WILL CLEAR OUT BUT FOR
SOME AREAS SUCH AS BEMIDJI IT WILL TAKE PERHAPS TIL LATE
MORNING. WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASE WITH
GUSTS OVER 30-35 KTS GFK AND DVL THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING A BIT AFTER DARK. WILL NEED TO WATCH AS WELL SOME
MVFR CLOUDS AROUND THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NW ND AT 12Z AS
THEY WILL LIKELY SKIRT THE BORDER AND MAY AFFECT DVL FOR A TIME
TODAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-027-029-030.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
015-024-026-028-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-007.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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