602
FXUS63 KFGF 171730
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THRU NEXT
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..SYNOPSIS
YESTERDAYS COLD FRONT HAS LEFT US WITH QUITE COOL TEMPERATURES
TODAY, AS MANY LOCATIONS ARE ONLY IN THE 40S AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS NOW SHIFTING THROUGH EASTERN
ND, QUICKLY PROPAGATING TO THE EAST. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SUNNY
SKIES AREA WIDE. THESE CLEAR SKIES WILL LAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. THE
COLDEST AREAS WILL BE IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL MN, WHERE A
FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TEMPERATURES AS LOW AS 30
DEGREES.
OVER THE WEEKEND, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN. IN THE LOW
LEVELS, A MUCH WARMER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN FROM THE WEST, LEADING
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES OF THESE VALUES (OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER BY WEDNESDAY) WILL PERSIST ALL THE WAY INTO
THE LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE NBM SHOWS HIGH
PREDICTABILITY IN THIS LONG STRETCH OF DRY/WARM WEATHER, WITH
ONLY A 2 TO 4 DEGREE HIGH TEMPERATURE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 25TH
AND 75TH PERCENTILES EACH DAY. THIS AGREEMENT MAKES SENSE
CONCEPTUALLY DUE TO A BLOCKING PATTERN SETTING UP WITH RIDGING
OVER THE CENTRAL US AND TROUGHS/LOWS MORE OR LESS OVER EACH OF
CONUS'S COASTS. THERE ARE SIGNS LATE IN THE WEEK OF A TRANSITION
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE WESTERN TROUGH DIGS AND STARTS TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD. HOWEVER, HOW THIS EVOLVES REMAINS UNCERTAIN,
SO AT THIS TIMEFRAME THE FORECAST FEATURES A SMATTERING OF LOW
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING FRIDAY.
..FREEZE TONIGHT
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE FORECASTED TO BE IN WEST
CENTRAL MN, WHICH WILL BE IN THE CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING SURFACE RIDGE. ELSEWHERE WINDS PICK UP
QUITE RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET, INCREASING MIXING, LIKELY KEEPING US A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THEN WE OTHERWISE WOULD BE. DUE TO
HIGHER WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA, TEMPERATURES, WHILE
CHILLY, SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS NOW AND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH JUST A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN, WITH SOUTHERLY GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON UP ABOVE 25 KTS AT
TIMES, BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 30 KTS. SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AS SURFACE WINDS DROP OFF BUT A JET AT 35 TO 40 KTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST CONTINUES AT 2000 FT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL DECREASE BY SUNRISE, AND SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST THEN NORTHWEST, PICKING UP AT KGFK AND KDVL WITH GUSTS
INTO THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...JR
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