655
FXUS63 KFGF 140430
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1130 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF THE REGION THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL RRV THROUGH
MIDDAY TUESDAY, THE MAIN AIR MASS SHIFT AND POTENTIAL INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN RRV AND DEVILS
LAKE BASIN. BASED ON NBM 5.2 WHICH CORRECTS FOR THE WARMER BIAS
WE HAVE SEEN FROM PREVIOUS DAYS, THE THE IMMEDIATE RRV IN THE
GRAND FORKS METRO AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 TO HIGHWAY
200 IN LINE FOR HEAT INDICIES IN THE 97-100F RANGE AND WET BULB
GLOBE TEMPERATURES AND HEAT RISK WITHIN THE EXTREME CATEGORIES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONSIDERING THE LIMITED
RECOVERY TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY I WENT AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
EXTREME HEAT WARNING THROUGH 10PM TUESDAY FOR THOSE COUNTIES IN
ND/MN MATCHING UP WITH THE TIMING WITH THE COUNTIES TO THE
SOUTH. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE MORE DEFINITE
IMPROVEMENT NORTH AND WEST OF THE COUNTIES IN THE WARNING
TUESDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
THE RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRED AS SCHEDULED WITH RH IMPROVING. IN
THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS TUESDAY BL TDS WILL BE FALLING AND RH
VALUES AROUND OR LOWER THAN 30% ARE LIKELY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH
LESS TUESDAY, AND EVEN PEAK MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THIS LOWERS THE
PROBABLY FOR RFW CONDITIONS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN OUR
AREA. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE LOWER RH VALUES AND HOT TEMPERATURES
IN THE PARTS OF OUR NW MN COUNTIES WHERE FUELS ARE A CONCERN,
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED. A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED FOR THE AREAS OF CONCERN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
..SYNOPSIS
STRONG H5 RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL GRADUALLY ELONGATE AND FLATTEN IN THE
COMING DAYS, KEEPING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 200. OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. GIVEN THE HOT TEMPERATURES AND
OVERALL LACK OF PRECIPITATION, FLASH DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES
AND DRIER DEW POINTS WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES IN THE 30-40 PERCENT
RANGE. THE GENERAL DEFICIT IN RAINFALL IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY MAY ALLOW RAPID FIRE
SPREAD IN THE PRESENCE OF HOTTER TEMPERATURES. A RED FLAG WARNING
REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FURTHER FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
..DANGEROUS HEAT WAVE CONTINUES TODAY
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDICES
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 100S IN MANY AREAS. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY WILL ONCE MORE SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES UPWARDS OF 110-
115 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MOST AREAS
ONLY SEEING A FEW HOURS BELOW 80 DEGREES. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD LATE TUESDAY.
..LIMITED RELIEF FROM HEAT THIS WEEK
AS THE H5 RIDGE FLATTENS, TEMPERATURES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER SOUTH, TEMPS REMAIN
IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S ON WEDNESDAY, WITH UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100
DEGREES EXPECTED ONCE MORE ON THURSDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ONCE
MORE APPROACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES FOR THE HOTTEST LOCATIONS SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 200. ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR BRINGS TEMPS DOWN
HEADING INTO FRIDAY, WITH AREA WIDE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER
90S EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (35-40KT) DURING THE EARLY TAF PERIOD AS A
LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASE
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWED BY A FRONTAL ZONE MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THEN NORTH BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH GUSTS DURING THE DAYTIME PERIOD OVER PARTS OF EASTERN
ND AROUND 20KT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30KT ARE NOT EXPECTED. THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
US/CANADA BORDER, HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY FOR IMPACTS AT TAF
SITS IS LOW (LESS THAN 20%).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ027>030-
038-039-049-052-053.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026-054.
MN...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ001>003-
015>017-022>024-027>032-040.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ004>009-013-
014.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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