878  
FXUS63 KFGF 312013  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
313 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
 
IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL FOCUS ON THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL SEE  
INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT  
AS WAA PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITHIN THIS WWA REGIME  
A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE  
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWERS  
AND ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS 850MB SOUTHERLY LLJ  
INCREASES TO NEAR 40KTS INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY BEFORE VEERING  
OFF INTO MN. TO THAT EXTENT A STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM IS  
POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL MN TOMORROW MORNING.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THE WAA THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BRING DAYTIME  
HIGHS, AS LONG SKIES CLEAR AS EXPECTED, INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW  
90S MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEST WINDS AID IN DRYING OUT DEW PTS AND  
LOCALLY RAISING VALLEY TEMPS. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT  
WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA ALONG THE DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
 
THE IMPACTS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING LEVELS OF HEAT  
WITH SOME HUMIDITY, WITH SCATTERED THUNDER EARLY FOLLOWED BY A  
BETTER PRECIPITATION SIGNAL LATER ON INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE AS A FEW SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE TOP OF  
OUR UPPER RIDGE. WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD BE TUE/WED, WITH HIGHS IN THE  
LOW TO MID 80S AND NOT MUCH POSITIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIMITING  
DEWPOINTS ONLY TO THE LOW 50S. A COLD FRONT/TROUGH, STILL LOOKING  
DRY AND NOT ALL THAT COOL, IS SCHEDULED TO SWING THROUGH THE  
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE WED/EARLY THU TIME FRAME. BEST  
SYNOPTICS FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO REMAIN BOTH NORTH OF THE  
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND TO THE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  
 
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE OF THE WEST COAST ON FRI/SAT  
KICKING OUT OUR RIDGE AND ALLOWING FOR SW FLOW AND INCREASING  
MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME. ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING RATHER HIGH  
PW/QPF ANOMALIES BY THE WEEKEND, WHEN WE SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR MORE  
ACTIVE CONVECTION AND AN END TO OUR MINI-DROUGHT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020  
 
SE WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT  
BJI THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THOUGH SCATTERED COVERAGE LIMITS  
THE INCLUSION AT THIS ISSUANCE WILL MONITOR THAT POTENTIAL. HAVE  
ALSO NOT INCLUDED BUT WANT TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR  
CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW MORNING. IF CONVECTION OCCURS THEN  
AN AREA OF STRATUS MAY FORM IN ITS WAKE. WILL ALSO MONITOR THIS  
POTENTIAL.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  

 
 
SHORT TERM...JK  
LONG TERM...WJB  
AVIATION...JK  
 
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