851
FXUS63 KFGF 120523
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1123 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A STRONG, ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING
A PERIOD OF 20-25 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 30-40 MPH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED WHITEOUT CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN COUNTRY.
- AN ARCTIC AIR MASS, ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS, WILL
BRING DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND CHILLS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS COULD
FALL AS LOW AS -40F.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 934 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
SNOW IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AND IS JUST
AROUND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE. OBSERVATIONS
REMAIN ABOVE 1 MILE IN TERMS OF VISIBILITY FOR THE MOST PART,
BUT ONCE IT REACHES OUR AREA AND COMBINES WITH WINDS, WE SHOULD
START TO SEE SUB-1 STATUTE MILE VISIBILITIES.
AHEAD OF THIS, FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE BUT OBSERVATIONS
HAVE BEEN SCANT ON IF IT IS THERE. REGARDLESS, ANY ICE THAT DOES
DEVELOP WOULD CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ANY REPORTS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE ARE ALWAYS APPRECIATED.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 651 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
THE MAIN BURST OF HIGHER WINDS REMAINS WELL WEST OF THE REGION
CURRENTLY SITTING ON A LINE FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FROM NEW
SALEM TO MINOT. BLOWING SNOW OBSERVATIONS AND WEBCAMS SEEM TO
INDICATE SOME VISIBILITY OBSCURATIONS ARE ONGOING AND WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE IT TO OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. WITH THE SNOWPACK
IN OUR REGION VERY BLOWABLE PLUS INCREASING WINDS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES, EXPECT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
..SYNOPSIS
AN ACTIVE AND COLD WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. A STEEP, THERMAL GRADIENT WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GIVEN THE AMPLIFIED NATURE OF
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, RAPID TEMPERATURE SWINGS ARE POSSIBLE HEADING
INTO NEXT WEEK. FOR FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS
NORTH OF THE STEEPEST THERMAL GRADIENT, WITH SEVERAL REINFORCING
SURGES OF ARCTIC AIR POURING SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT FALLING
WELL BELOW ZERO. AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFTS NORTH, AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE, LATE SUNDAY, MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION.
HIGH TEMPS ON MONDAY COULD CLIMB INTO THE TEENS TO 20S ABOVE ZERO,
WITH CONDITIONALLY WARMER TEMPS ON TUESDAY. THERE IS A LARGE DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY, HOWEVER, WITH FRESH SNOW PACK AND WEST WINDS, CLOUD
COVER BECOMES A CONCERN, THUS IMPACTING POTENTIAL HIGH TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
..TRAVEL IMPACTS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, BRINGING A DUSTING TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-25 MPH ARE EXPECTED, WITH
GUSTS RANGING FROM 30-40 MPH. AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN OPEN COUNTRY, WHERE VISIBILITY COULD BE
REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED AROUND THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST,
POSSIBLY INTO THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO TRAVEL IMPACTS IN RESPONSE TO THE
DIMINISHED VISIBILITY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE GENERALLY LESS
THAN ONE INCH FOR MOST AREAS AS THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING RATHER QUICKLY.
..DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
FRIGID, ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
FOLLOWING TONIGHT'S COLD FRONT. FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES (SINGLE
DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO) WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO TO NEAR 20 BELOW ZERO, ALONG WITH NORTHWEST WINDS RANGING
FROM 7 TO 12 MPH. THIS BRINGS WIND CHILL VALUES INTO THE RANGE OF 30
BELOW ZERO TO 40 BELOW ZERO AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO TAPER
OFF HEADING INTO SATURDAY. THE COLDEST TEMPS ARRIVE SATURDAY EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH MANY AREAS SEEING AIR TEMPS IN
THE 20S BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG, WIND
CHILLS WILL STILL APPROACH -40F DUE TO THE SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR
TEMPERATURES. WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AFTER SUNRISE ON SUNDAY,
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY CLIMB ABOVE ZERO DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU DEC 11 2025
CEILINGS WILL BECOME MVFR TO IFR THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHES
IN AND BRINGS A LINE OF SNOW ALONG WITH IT. AS THIS OCCURS,
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST, INCREASING CHANCES FOR
VISIBILITY OBSCURATIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. GENERALLY EXPECT
SUSTAINED 1-3SM VISIBILITY WITH PERIODIC DROPS TO 1/4-1/2SM WITH
FALLING SNOW. FALLING SNOW WILL END FAIRLY QUICKLY BUT THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN, ALLOWING FOR CONTINUED IMPACTS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
VISIBILITY OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE BUT SHOULD BE MARKEDLY
IMPROVED FROM WITHIN FALLING SNOW. CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT
TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS FROM WEST
TO EAST, EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR WITH BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AS WINDS DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ008-016-027>030-038-039.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
014-015-024-026-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
MNZ001>004-007.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...PERROUX
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