195
FXUS63 KFGF 270952
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
452 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED STARTING THIS MORNING AND LASTING
UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE LIKELY
ALONG WITH GUSTS RANGING FROM 40-50 MPH. BEST CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CONTINUES TODAY. THERE IS A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR SOAKING RAINFALL OF 1 INCH OR MORE WITHIN FAR
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 444 AM CDT MON APR 27 2026
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORT HIGHER WIND
GUSTS LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES
FOR GUSTS IN THE 40-50 MPH RANGE WILL BE IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE IMPACTED AREAS. THE HEAVIEST RAIN
THIS MORNING HAS BEEN FALLING IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WITH
LIGHT RAIN EXTENDING INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS SLOWLY
PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS LEAVES SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW. ONGOING
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE SEED FOR A POWERFUL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TURNS NORTHWESTERLY, PUTTING US IN A DRY PATTERN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S EVERYDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. SHORTWAVE RIDGING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER, WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S RETURNING.
..WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD FROM KANSAS
TO LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST, WE WILL FIND OURSELVES IN A REGION OF STEADY STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION. RAIN WILL START THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTH, SPREADING
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN ND AND MN TONIGHT. THERE ARE STILL
A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THE LOW TRACKS,
WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE CUT OFF IN HEAVIER RAIN VERSUS
MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS SETS UP. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL VARY FROM NOTHING/SPRINKLES IN PARTS OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO OVER AN INCH IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE LONGEST.
PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN ARE HIGHEST IN WEST
CENTRAL MN AT 70%. TOTALS WILL VARY MOST OVER SHORT DISTANCES ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN, WHERE LITTLE SHIFTS IN
THE SYSTEMS TRACK WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE FINAL AMOUNT
OF RAIN RECEIVED. THIS INCLUDES PLACES SUCH AS VALLEY CITY,
GRAND FORKS, THIEF RIVER FALLS, AND ROSEAU.
ADDITIONALLY, IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY. THE BEST PRESSURE
RISES ARE TO OUR SOUTH, BUT WITH A 1025 MB HIGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND A NEAR 990 MB LOW IN SOUTHERN MN, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OR SO.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF A WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED
FOR ANY ZONES MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, BASED ON
THE WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION, QUESTIONABLE MIXING DEPTH AND
THE BULLSEYE OF PRESSURE RISES BEING OUTSIDE OUR CWA, DECIDED TO
HOLD ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
RAIN IS ALREADY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY TAF PERIOD, WITH
RAIN RATES RESULTING IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS 3-6 AT TIMES.
WHERE HEAVIER RAIN RATES OCCUR BRIEF VISIBILITY DROPS TO 1SM
MAY OCCUR (30% MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN0. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD MOST TAF SITES FOLLOWED BY A
LARGE AREA OF IFR CEILINGS OVER EAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN. KDVL
IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MUCH
LESS ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BASED ON THE CURRENT
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
WINDS ALSO SHIFT FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. STRONGEST WIND
GUSTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO EXCEED 30KT THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD MONDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS AROUND 40KT AT TIMES
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY RAIN CLEARS AND VFR
STARTS RETURNING, HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE AN IMPROVING TREND
NORTHWEST TO EAST (FIRST ND THEN KTVF). LINGERING LIGHT RAIN
AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN MN AT KBJI.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ008-016-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ001>004-007-029.
UPDATE...LYNCH
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...DJR
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