491
FXUS63 KFGF 010441
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
BOTH LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL, WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE MONDAY.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
..SYNOPSIS
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN STILL
REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS, RIDGE IS
SUPPRESSED IN THE WAKE OF A WELL DEVELOPED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS IS FINALLY OFFERING A REPRIEVE FROM THE RECENT STRETCH OF
HEAT AND HIGHER HUMIDITY THE PAST FEW WEEKS AS RELATIVELY COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS INFILTRATES OUR REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
IS ALSO HELPING KEEP RAIN CHANCES MINIMAL AND SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT GIVEN CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, PARTICULARLY FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RECENT RAINFALL.
THE REPRIEVE IN HEAT IS SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL
REINTRODUCE HOT AIR MASS INTO THE DAKOTAS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS.
IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW FAR THIS AIR MASS AND HEAT STRETCHES
INTO OUR AREA OF EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MN,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR HEAT IMPACTS.
THIS ALSO OCCURS AS A SEASONABLY STOUT UPPER TROUGH ENCROACHES
UPON THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS WILL
BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
SEVERE. MORE DETAILS ON THIS FOUND BELOW.
THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS GREATER THAN 20 MPH, BUT LIKELY TO STAY BELOW
45 MPH, HIGHEST IN EASTERN ND AND RED RIVER VALLEY. MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE,
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW, WITH POTENTIAL TO DIP INTO
THE 25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES INCREASE SUNDAY AS WELL
INTO THE 80S AND 90S.
..SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF A STOUT UPPER TROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST,
SYNOPTIC FORCING ALOFT INCREASES AS DOES INCREASING WIND ENERGY.
THIS WILL ALSO HELP RETURN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA -
HOWEVER, THE DEGREE OF WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE A TONGUE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT OVERSPREADING THE WARM
SECTOR DURING THIS TIME. AS THIS WARM SECTOR NOSES INTO THE
REGION, ELEVATED ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY,
OF WHICH MAY IMPACT OUR AREA. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN HAZARD. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
LINGER SUNDAY OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DURING THE DAY MONDAY, MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SWINGS A
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA, PROVIDING FOCUS FOR ASCENT AND
SPARKING THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN STRENGTH
OF CAPPING, ALTHOUGH THIS DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE AN "UNBREAKABLE"
CAP, ESPECIALLY WHEN CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF FORCING FOR
ASCENT THAT COULD ERODE/BREAK THROUGH CAPPING INVERSION.
WHILE KINEMATIC PARAMETER SPACING LOOKS TO BE ON THE STRONGER
SIDE (MEAN BULK SHEAR WITHIN ENSEMBLES IS AROUND 50KT),
INSTABILITY IS A BIT MORE QUESTIONABLE. WHILE ANTECEDENT AIR
MASS AHEAD OF THE WARM SECTOR IS RATHER DEVOID OF RICH MOISTURE,
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH RETURN AND POOLING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT TO ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A NARROW CORRIDOR OF RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AIDING IN INSTABILITY AND OVERALL LOW LEVEL BUOYANCY.
ULTIMATELY, THIS STILL ALLOWS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ALL HAZARDS
CONSIDERING DISCRETE STORM MODE STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE. AI / ML
GUIDANCE LIKE STORMNET SUPPORTS THIS. HOWEVER, ORIENTATION OF
THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS MAY NOT SUPPORT DISCRETE
STORM MODE. THUS, STORM MODE AND ITS INFLUENCE TO DICTATE
DOMINANT HAZARDS STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2026
VFR WITH SKC TO FEW FOR CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT TO VARIABLE WINDS
TONIGHT THRU NOON OR SO THEN WE SHOULD SEE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOONER TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH DVL SEEING THE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND THE
VALLEY IN THE EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JK
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