523
FXUS63 KFGF 291721
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1221 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEED TO MONITOR RH TODAY AS NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
- NOT AS HOT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. MAJORITY OF THE
SHOWER CHANCES ARE WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY THRU SUNDAY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL BE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT THU MAY 28 2026
..SYNOPSIS
BLOCKING RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST, AND THAT WILL CHANGE ONLY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. MOST MODELS HAVE A LEAD SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO NEB/SD
TOMORROW AND THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE ONE FOLLOWING IT
LATER DURING THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIMITED IN IMPACTS BY THE
BLOCKING RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST. A STRONGER LEAD SHORTWAVE
COMING OUT NEXT WEEK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO
START TO BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
AND AT THAT POINT WE SHOULD ACTUALLY GET THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH INSTEAD OF STAYING TO OUR WEST AND WASHING OUT.
HOWEVER, WITH ANY SHIFT OUT OF A BLOCKING PATTERN THE DETAILS
REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN. TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ANY PRECIPITATION
IS UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT, BUT CONTINUED TEMPERATURES ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN RIDGING TO SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW.
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TOMORROW
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE BREEZY TOMORROW
IN EASTERN ND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER SOUTHEAST
AND THE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DEEPENS. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES OUT OF SD/NEB,
BUT WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL MIXING THE TEMPS STILL LOOK VERY TOASTY
FOR TOMORROW. NBM HAS A 60 TO 80 PERCENT PROBABILITY FOR ABOVE
90 HIGHS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG OUR EASTERN CWA
BORDER. THE BOX AND WHISKERS PLOT HAS HIGHS FOR FARGO TOMORROW
RANGING FROM 84 TO 94 AT THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES
RESPECTIVELY, SO ABOVE AVERAGE NO MATTER WHAT. PROBABILITIES FOR
RH VALUES DROPPING BELOW 25 PERCENT IN NORTHWESTERN MN HAVE
GONE DOWN A BIT AND ARE AROUND 20 PERCENT, BUT IF TEMPS END UP
ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE SPREAD THE RH VALUES COULD GET A BIT
LOWER. WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG EAST OF THE RED RIVER, SO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP NEAR CRITICAL MENTION. OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL BE UP AROUND 20 MPH BUT RHS SHOULD BE IN THE 30 TO
35 PERCENT RANGE IN THAT AREA, SO AGAIN NEAR CRITICAL AND NOT
RED FLAG. THE RED RIVER VALLEY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LOWEST RH
VALUES IN THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE, AND WINDS WILL BE JUST
UNDER 20 MPH. WILL WATCH THAT AREA IN CASE TEMPS OR WINDS GET
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED.
..SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
A FEW OF THE MODELS BREAK OUT SOME SHOWERS WITH THE SD SHORTWAVE
LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND APPROACH OUR SOUTHEASTERN ND
COUNTIES. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME AT
LOW LEVELS SO DON'T THINK TOO MUCH WILL REACH THE GROUND. THERE
IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND HREF HAS SOME SPOTTY 30 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES OF THUNDER TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SO
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHTNING BUT AT THIS POINT NOTHING SEVERE
IS EXPECTED. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES TRYING TO BREAK INTO THE
BLOCKING RIDGE COULD BRING A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT TIMES OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION LOOK TO ARRIVE
EARLY TO MID-WEEK. A FEW OF THE MACHINE LEARNING RUNS HAVE SOME
LOW PROBABILITIES OF SEVERE STORMS FOR THIS PERIOD, BUT
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO MENTION IN ANY MESSAGING AT THIS
POINT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS NOW AND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING
HIGH AND THEN MID CLOUDS. SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, BUT WILL BE SCATTERED
AND MAY OR MAY NOT IMPACT THE AIRPORTS. HAVE SOME PROB30 GROUPS
FOR SHOWERS IN FOR NOW, AND WILL PUT IN THE PREVAILING GROUP IF
AND WHEN CONVECTION GETS STRONGER OR IMPACTS THE TAF SITES.
WINDS THAT ARE LIGHT AND FAIRLY VARIABLE WILL STEADY OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST, THEN PICK UP WITH SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 20 KTS BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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