325
FXUS63 KFGF 080253
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
953 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK THIS EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS FOR
SEVERE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH
FLOODING. THIS THREAT EXISTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94
AND HIGHWAY 10 (SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA).
- DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
..SYNOPSIS
ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, DEPICTING THE CURRENT ZONAL FLOW TO
TRANSITION INTO A SORT OF OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WITH RIDGING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. DETAILS LESS CERTAIN OF COURSE.
..SEVERE AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS
MONTANA SLOWLY PROPAGATING EASTWARD. AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE EASTWARD THIS EVENING, ANTICIPATE A STRONG 850MB JET
TO DEVELOP WITH NOSE OF THIS FEATURE INTO THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY. CURRENTLY, SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A 700MB BOUNDARY
ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA, WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH AN MCV ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RRV AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD, ALTHOUGH IMPACTS WILL BE
MINIMAL. LATER THIS EVENING, THE 850MB FRONT WILL SHIFT NORTH AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. SURFACE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA, BUT WITH INSTABILITY ALONG THE ELEVATED
FRONT AND STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION THERE IS A VERY HIGH
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94/HWY10.
SEVERE POTENTIAL...FREEZING LEVELS ARE NEAR 15 KFT, BUT GIVEN
THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEAR
SEVERE TO SEVERE HAIL GIVEN MUCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR NEAR 50 KNOTS. POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR SEVERE WIND GIVEN
THE ANTICIPATED STRONG LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR, EVEN WITH THE
STORM BEING ELEVATED. THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL
LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL, BUT WILL NOT ELIMINATE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL/FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL...ANTICIPATE HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES GIVEN PWATS NEAR 1.75 INCHES ALONG WITH SOUNDINGS
INDICATING EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATE PROCESSES (PLUS HIGH FREEZING
LEVEL). GIVEN THE WEST TO EAST POSITION OF THE ELEVATED FRONT,
POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR TRAINING STORMS. CAM GUIDANCE
INDICATING MEAN RAINFALL 1-2 INCHES WITH MAX RAINFALL NEAR 5
INCHES. GIVEN ALL OF THIS, PLUS THE RAIN THAT FELL YESTERDAY
(1-2 INCHES) ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WILL ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL (10P-7A).
..DANGEROUS HEAT
AS THE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEEKEND, ANTICIPATE MAX
TEMPERATURES 95F-100F (MAYBE A BIT WARMER) ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HEAT RISK, WET BULB GLOBE TEMP,
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES ALL INDICATE A DANGEROUS HEAT EPISODE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 953 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2026
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN AVIATION IMPACTS FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AS A WEAKENING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX BRINGS SOME
RAIN AND LIGHTNING TO THE KBJI AND KFAR AREA. SHOULD START
TRANSITIONING OVER TO MORE VCSH BY 06Z WITH JUST A FEW
LINGERING SPITS AS THE PRIMARY COMPLEX MOVES FURTHER FROM OUR
AIRPORTS. CLOUDS BEHIND THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX LOOK TO REMAIN
VFR, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS STARTING TO PICK UP OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST BY TOMORROW MORNING. DECREASING CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST WINDS 8 TO 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF
TOMORROW, AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ029>032-040.
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...JR
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