599
FXUS63 KFGF 131128
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
628 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL LATER THIS WEEK, WHICH COULD
LEAD TO ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER.
-SCATTERED FROST AND FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. H5
TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS; HOWEVER, CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO REMAIN QUITE PERSISTENT
AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY INTO TUESDAY. LOOK FOR
SLOW CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY, WITH CLOUD COVER ON THE INCREASE ONCE
MORE THURSDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN CHANCES AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO MUCH OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. LATER ON FRIDAY, COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE AREA
ALONG NORTHWEST FLOW, BRINGING LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS.
..ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
RELATIVE HUMIDITY ON FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 25-35
PERCENT RANGE, ALONG WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AT 20-40 MPH. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING THE CONDITION OF FUELS; HOWEVER,
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT IS RELATIVELY STRONG REGARDING WINDS AND LOW DEW
POINTS.
..TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH COLDER TEMPS IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD FROST CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY, WITH CONDITIONAL FREEZE CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON WIND
SPEEDS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE ENDING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, IFR TO EVEN AT TIMES STILL LIFR CEILINGS REMAIN IN
PLACE. CEILINGS SHOULD SLOWLY RISE AS WE GO THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH MVFR SLOWLY TAKING OVER FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL TAKE LONGEST AT KTVF
AND KBJI, WHERE IT MAY BE LATE EVENING BY THE TIME IFR BREAKS
UP. WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KNOTS TODAY, GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. ONCE THE SUN SETS, WE SHOULD SEE A QUICK TRANSITION
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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