254
FXUS63 KFGF 252051
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
351 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING, AND MAY DEVELOP AGAIN
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
- ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING TUESDAY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK, WITH
HIGHS NEAR DAILY RECORDS AGAIN TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES, WITH
RISING HEIGHTS AND WEST-NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPE FLOW AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
ZONE SUPPORTING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THIS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND AMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES CENTERED OVER OUR
CWA, PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AND POTENTIALLY BEYOND.
OUTSIDE OF TUESDAY, THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
OR THUNDERSTORMS IS VERY LOW.
THERE ARE CLUSTERS THAT SHOW RIDGE WEAKENING SOME THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING CENTERED
OVER OUR CWA EVEN THE CLUSTERS THAT WEAKEN IT THE MOST KEEP
FAVORABLE STORM TRACKS WELL WEST OF OUR REGION, LOWERING
CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS THERE COULD BE A GENERAL "COOLING
TREND" AT LEAST COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK, BUT ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS OUR CWA INTO EARLY
JUNE.
..NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
RH VALUES (AIDED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S) HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA. WINDS ARE HIGHLY
VARIABLE THOUGH AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS FOLLOWED BY A FRONT MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. THE AIR MASS IS TECHNICALLY COOLER BEHIND THIS
FRONT BUT STILL VERY WARM. WHERE FUELS ARE DRIER/MORE PROBLEMATIC
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE WILL BRING
INCREASING BL TDS INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WHICH
SHOULD KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE 25% FOR MUCH OF OUR REGION. THE
EXCEPTION IS TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL MN WHERE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
FOR TDS TO MIX LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS. THIS
IS WORTH MONITORING AS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FEATURE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTIER WINDS THAN TODAY.
..ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
CAMS SUPPORT THE SIGNAL IN GLOBAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES THAT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE CAP WEAKENS NEAR
THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLED OVER OUR CWA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE IN PLACE,
AND GUIDANCE THAT FAVORS TDS OVER 60F ALSO SHOW MORE ROBUST
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MUCAPE VALUES TO
EXCEED 2000 J/KG. SHEAR IS TRICKIER AS INITIALLY WEAKER FLOW
UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS LIMITS EFFECTIVE SHEAR (GENERALLY 25KT OR
LESS) AND CONVECTION MAY REMAIN MORE PULSY IN NATURE. HOWEVER
THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A BUILDING LLJ (MAINLY IN ND) DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND HODOGRAPHS/EFFECTIVE SHEAR 30KT+ AND EVEN WITH
LOWER CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-15000 J/KG THIS COULD SUPPORT A
RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL, THOUGH COVERAGE WOULD BE
LIMITED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. WINDS DIRECTION WILL VARY
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO NORTHWEST
AS LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL ZONE PASS WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING. STRONGER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT WELL
WEST OF THE REGION RESULTS IN INCREASING GRADIENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
ABOVE 12KT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MORE FREQUENT GUSTS
18-20KT BY LATE MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTS AROUND 30KT
AFTER THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON (BEST CHANCES
TOWARDS KDVL).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR
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