233
FXUS63 KFGF 100419
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1119 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY FOR
THE DEVILS LAKE AREA AND A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK TONIGHT INTO
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. HAIL AND WIND ARE THE PRIMARY
RISK WITH ANY STORMS.
- DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES LIKELY THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH
HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 110 DEGREES LIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
..SYNOPSIS
STRONG H5 RIDGING IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, WHICH
WILL DRIFT INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, THEN INTO THE MIDWEST BY LATE
THIS WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THIS, A WEAK BOUNDARY IS SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY, WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LINGER OVERNIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
WARMER TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE AREA HEADING INTO
SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 80S FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND THE MID-90S SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS PREVAIL SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH AIR TEMPS IN THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES UPWARDS OF 100-110
DEGREES. HEADING INTO TUESDAY, THE H5 RIDGE SHOULD START TO FLATTEN
AND DRIFT WESTWARD, ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW TO RETURN TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
A SLOW MOVING BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE AN AXIS OF DEVELOPMENT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY, INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS MID AFTERNOON. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL
BE THE TIMING OF INITIATION, MAINLY DUE TO ONGOING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS PROVIDING JUST ENOUGH SURFACE
INHIBITION IN IT'S WAKE TO POTENTIALLY DELAY FUTURE CONVECTION UNTIL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS, CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. CHANCES
ARE HIGHEST IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCES
ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
..DANGEROUS HEAT THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
STRONG RIDGING IS IN THE PROCESS OF STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. ANOMALOUS HEIGHTS UPWARDS OF 600DM ARE BEING HIGHLIGHTED BY
THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, ALLOWING TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 90S ON SATURDAY, THEN APPROACH THE 100 DEGREE MARK ON SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S, HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER, ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS ALIGNS ATOP THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
WET BULB GLOBE TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, SIGNIFYING HIGH TO EXTREME CATEGORICAL HEAT RISK BOTH
DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2026
SKIES CLEARING OUT WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY PRODUCE SOME FOG
ESPECIALLY AFTER THE RAIN EARLIER TONIGHT AT KDVL. WINDS WILL
BE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PASSES AND TURN
MORE NORTHERLY FRIDAY AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES. SOME CHANCE
FOR MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, BUT THE CHANCES
ARE MUCH LOWER WITH THE BEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE FRONT AT KBJI.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-
052>054.
MN...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ001>005-007-008-013>015-029-030-040.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...WOLFE (DLH)
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