808
FXUS63 KFGF 231155
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
655 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, THEN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OVERNIGHT HAS KEPT FOG FROM
FORMING. AS WE GO THROUGH TODAY, LEE TROUGHING TO OUR WEST AND
A SURFACE HIGH TO OUR EAST WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUFFICIENTLY TIGHT FOR SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. ON
THE RAINFALL SIDE OF THINGS, ONSET TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH.
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT RAINFALL WILL START LATE THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN, SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. INITIAL SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
SPOTTIER DUE TO THE WEAKER WAA FORCING RESPONSIBLE. HOWEVER, AS
WE GO LATER IN THE NIGHT (ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT), RAINFALL
SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND CONSISTENT AS THE MAIN TROUGH
AXIS TRACKS THROUGH THE FA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS OF STEADIER RAIN, ESPECIALLY ON THE MN SIDE OF THE FA.
RAINFALL ENDS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SOME
DRIZZLE/MIST IN ITS WAKE. ALL OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
REMAIN ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..SYNOPSIS
LOW TO MID LEVEL STRATUS HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
IN THE DEVILS LAKE AREA, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH HEADING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS EXPERIENCING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING RAIN
CHANCES INTO MUCH OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS
HIGHS REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES RETURN ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
CEILINGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH VISIBILITIES AND WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO POSE POTENTIAL
AVIATION HAZARDS. STARTING OFF WITH THIS MORNING, STRATUS IS
OVERSPREADING THE REGION. IT IS MOSTLY VFR, HOWEVER, POCKETS OF
MVFR EXIST IN SOUTHEASTERN ND AROUND KFAR. FURTHER EAST, AN LIFR
POCKET HAS DEVELOPED OVER KBJI. THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE INTO MID MORNING, SLOWLY LIFTING. THEREFORE, BESIDES
KDVL WHERE MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG ON ALL DAY, ALL TERMINALS
WILL GO BACK TO VFR. AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING, THE LOWER
CEILINGS OUT WEST WILL EXPAND EASTWARD, BRINGING MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS AREA WIDE. BY LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, SOME
LIFR WILL LIKELY MIX IN AS WELL. RAIN AND MIST WILL ACCOMPANY
THESE LOWER CEILINGS. THE PROBABILITY FOR ANY -TSRA AT ANY ONE
TERMINAL IS VERY LOW, AND THEREFORE IS NOT MENTIONED IN THE TAF.
WITH A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION TODAY, WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS, WITH
GUSTS BY AFTERNOON AROUND 30 KNOTS AT KDVL, KGFK AND KFAR.
THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING, AND
THEN VERY SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET, WHERE GUSTS MAY DROP OFF
BUT A PERSISTENT 15 KNOT OR SO WIND WILL LIKELY REMAIN
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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