270
FXUS63 KFGF 031554
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
954 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 80% CHANCE OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH OR GREATER AND WIND
GUSTS 45 MPH OR GREATER IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
- MIXED RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING TONIGHT TURNING TO SNOW TUESDAY
FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA,
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BEMIDJI TO FARGO LINE. 20%
CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
ADJUSTED SKY COVER FOR HIGH CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S, BUT SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE 40S
AND EVEN SOME LOW 50S BY THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 722 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
NO FOG THIS MORNING. BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING NORTHEAST THRU
THE AREA. BUT CLEARING BEHIND IT SO IDEA OF A RELATIVELY SUNNY
DAY IS ON TRACK. ENOUGH SUN COMBINED WITH MILD 925 MB TEMPS TO
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO FORECAST VALUES. THIS DESPITE LIGHT
WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
..SYNOPSIS
THE 500 MB PATTERN THIS WEEK AND LIKELY BEYOND WILL BE A
PROGRESSIVE ONE AS A STRONG JET BRINGS WAVES OFF THE PACIFIC
INTO COASTAL NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES. THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THESE SYSTEMS AND THEREFORE
IMPACTS LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS WEEK. A WEAKER
NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL BRING WEAK UPPER WAVES THRU CENTRAL
CANADA THIS WEEK AS WELL PUTTING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO JET STREAMS.
..TODAY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY OUT AHEAD OF A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
NEVADA. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE TODAY MEANING
LIGHTER WINDS THAN ON SUNDAY. 925 MB TEMPS WARM AS WELL INTO THE
+4 TO +7C RANGE AND PROVIDED THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO DENSE,
SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
..TONIGHT-TUESDAY
UPPER LOW OVER NEVADA WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WESTERN
KANSAS BY 12Z TUE WITH SURFACE LOW ALSO IN WESTERN KANSAS. UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW DEEPENS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEAST
TOWARD DAVENPORT IOWA/MOLINE ILLINOIS AREA BY 12Z WED.
INITIAL BAND OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING DOES DEVELOP TONIGHT
WELL AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FROM CENTRAL SD INTO FAR SE ND AND
WEST CENTRAL MN. THIS BAND OF PRECIP LINGERS THRU TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE MAIN LOW AND HEAVIER DEFORMATION
ZONE PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA THRU CENTRAL
IOWA IN SOUTHEAST MN AND WISCONSIN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
INITIAL PRECIP TYPE WILL BE LIGHT RAIN IN FAR SE ND INTO MN.
MODELS DO DIFFER A BIT ON LOCATION OF THIS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES BAND FROM PIERRE THRU
SISSETON SD TO NEAR FERGUS FALLS/ALEXANDRIA TO BRAINERD. A FEW
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE A BIT NORTH BUT IN GENERAL FAVOR THIS ZONE
AS THE AREA OF HIGHEST POPS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH AT THE SFC-850 MB LAYER TUES
LATE NIGHT TURNING RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW...THOUGH IN PARTS OF WEST
CENTRAL MN (WADENA, ELBOW LAKE) IT MAY TAKE WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON TO CHANGE RAIN TO SNOW. RISK OF FREEZING RAIN IS LOW,
BUT NOT ZERO. SO DID INCLUDE A POTENTIAL MIX IN FAR SE ND AND MN
NEAR SD BORDER FOR A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUES WHEN
THERE MAY BE A BRIEF OVERLAP BETWEEN WARMER TEMPS 850 MB AND
COLDER SFC TEMPS. SOUNDINGS IN THAT AREA THOUGH SHOW THE COLUMN
SATURATING AND COOLING WELL BELOW 0C FAIRLY FAST SO ANY ICING
IS LIMITED. AS FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...LESS THAN 1 INCH. RAIN
AMOUNTS UP TO 0.30 INCH FAR SOUTHEAST FCST AREA WADENA TO ELBOW
LAKE.
FARTHER NORTH, THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW FROM A
NORTHERN WAVE MOVING INTO NW ND TONIGHT AND IT WILL MOVE EAST
AND THEN DIMINISH AS DRIER AIR TAKES HOLD IN NE ND TUESDAY.
AS FOR WINDS, TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN HIGH
MOVING SOUTHEAST THRU SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY AND
DEEPENING LOW IN IOWA/ILLINOIS. WIND ADVISORY IS LIKELY NEEDED
FOR TUESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE
PROBABILITIES FOR SUSTAINED WINDS 30 MPH AND GREATER AND WIND
GUSTS 45 MPH OR GREATER.
..LATE IN THE WEEK
A QUIET PERIOD AFTER THIS STORM PASSES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RANGE WITH HIGHS 30S WED-FRI THEN
WARMER AIR MOVES BACK IN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT
UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WESTERN U.S. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN
THE 40S WITH SOME 50S AND EVEN WARMER MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THRU SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 AM CST MON MAR 3 2025
NO FOG TO START THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS THRU THIS EVENING WITH
SOME BANDS OF HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WINDS, MAINLY SOUTH OR
SOUTHEAST THEN TURNING NORTHEAST LATE TODAY OR THIS EVENING.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AND ALSO CLOUD COVER
INCREASES WITH MODEL DATA INDICATING A QUICK DROP IN CEILINGS
INTO IFR RANGE AT MOST SITES. THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO FAST AND
DIDNT GO THAT LOW IN THE CEILINGS, BUT DATA IS SUPPORTIVE OF
MVFR CIGS PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z TUE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE/JR
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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