006
FXUS63 KFGF 210059
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
659 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 659 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICTED AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED FROM
NORTHERN SASK TO SOUTHERN ALTA. DOWNSTREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
OVER THE AREA AND WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
JET WILL OCCUR EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AND KEEP TEMPS RELATIVELY MILD
OVERNIGHT. GOING FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND CLEAR SKIES ARE THE MAIN STORIES FOR THIS
PERIOD. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL WHILE THE SUN IS DOWN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS NOT
STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DIURNAL CYCLE. THESE OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BY FRIDAY MORNING MUCH IF NOT ALL OF NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA WILL BE ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS AT 850 MB. THE QUESTION FOR
TOMORROW IS HOW MUCH OF THAT WARM AIR ALOFT CAN MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE? BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THE PROFILE IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR
THIS EARLY IN THE DAY, BUT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE LATER IN THE DAY.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS AS MOST MEMBERS KEEP SURFACE
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST BELOW FREEZING. IF THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES CAN START TO MIX DOWN SOONER HIGHER TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S ARE POSSIBLE. FRIDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
TEMPERATURES THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE SATURDAY. NOT AN OVERLY
WARM AIRMASS AT 925 AND 850 MB OVER THE AREA WITH 850 MB TEMPS IN
THE +1.5 TO +3.5 C RANGE, BUT STRONGER LATER FEBRUARY SUN AND A
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL HELP BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE 30S,
THOUGH MOST OF THE PRAIRIE SNOW COVER AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
32F-34F BOTH DAYS VS 35-40 OVER THE PINE FORESTS OF NORTHERN MN.
SUNDAY WILL SEE 925/850 MB TEMPS COOL AS A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AND
WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWEST. BUT SURFACE COOLING LIMITED AND SUNDAY
LIKELY TO SEE SIMILAR TEMPERATURES THAN SATURDAY DESPITE AN INCREASE
IN MID OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
MONDAY HIGHS COOL A COUPLE DEGREES WITH INCREASED SKY COVER. THEN A
SOUTHEAST MOVING 500 MB SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM S ALBERTA AND SW
SASKATCHEWAN INTO SOUTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT
GIVING SOME CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH A
GENERAL 500 MB TROUGH FORMS AND COLDER AIR DOES DROP BACK SOUTH FOR
MID WEEK. GFS ENSEMBLES INDICATE STILL A SPREAD IN PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM, MOST ARE QUITE LOW (UNDER 0.10 INCH).
ECMWF IS EVEN LOWER. NBM INDICATES CHC POPS FOR THE MON NIGHT-TUES
NIGHT PERIOD WITH NWS WPC INDICATING MINIMAL QPF, MORE LIKE THE
ECMWF. FROM 12Z MODEL SUITE, IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM APPEAR
LIMITED AT THIS TIME. NORTH 12-25 KT WINDS WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY FCST
AND AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST PATTERN WOULD NOT FAVOR A STRONG NORTH
WIND EVENT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST THU FEB 20 2020
VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA UNDER A CLEAR SKY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND FRI. HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM AROUND 03Z FRI THROUGH
15Z FRI DUE TO A LOW LEVEL WESTERLY JET.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JH
SHORT TERM...NC
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...JH
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