018
FXUS63 KFGF 191935
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
235 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. NO SEVERE WEATHER ANTICIPATED WITH THE
MAIN IMPACTS BEING LIGHTNING AND BRIEF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE COMES THROUGH
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, BRINGING A SURFACE LOW WITH SOME WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND IT. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AMPLIFIES A BIT
INTO THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES/WESTERN
PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
IT DOWN A BIT ON MONDAY, WITH SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS FOR MID-WEEK, ALTHOUGH ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN WERE EXACTLY THE RIDGE AXIS
SETS UP. NBM MEAN HAS BEEN TRENDING ON THE DRY SIDE WITH
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
..SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MANY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE SCATTERED SHOWER AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ENTERING OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN DIGS DOWN. SOME OF THE MODELS SUCH AS
THE NAM AND THE RAP HAVE A NARROW BAND OF INSTABILITY WITH THE
SYSTEM. THE SURFACE BASED CAPE IS ONLY IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE, BUT SOME OF THE CAMS HAVE MU CAPE A BIT ABOVE 1000 J/KG.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AROUND 25 TO 30 KTS, BUT HREF PROBABILITIES
OF ANY STRONG UPDRAFTS ARE MINIMAL, AND MODEL SOUNDINGS THIS
EVENING ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. COULD SEE SOME LIGHTNING AS
HREF HAS 30 TO 50 PERCENT PROBABILITIES WITH THIS SHORTWAVE,
ALONG WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS NOW AND THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AS CLOUD COVER
COMING IN WILL BE MID AND HIGH LEVELS. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY AT THE MORE NORTHERN TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS POINT. WINDS THAT ARE SOUTHERLY OR
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WILL STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, BUT
THEN PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING, THEN TURNING
NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...JR
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