209
FXUS63 KFGF 111121
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
621 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CHANCES TODAY & MONDAY, HIGHEST CHANCES NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA.
- THURSDAY RAIN CHANCES ARE CONTINUING TO LOWER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
AT 11Z THE NORTH WIND SHIFT HAS MADE IT TO WALKER, PARK RAPIDS
TO ELBOW LAKE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPREADING SOUTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH LOWER CLOUDS REACHING FARGO TO MAHOMEN TO
WARROAD. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST ND AND
THIS CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED RAIN COVERAGE. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO NE ND AND NW MN
MONDAY. QUESTION IS HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
FCST AREA AS THE COOLER AIR MAY MIX OUT TODAY AND RESULT IN A
PRETTY SHARP GRADIENT FROM WADENA AND ELBOW LAKE TO FARGO AND
NORTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
SYNOPTIC FLOW OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL LARGELY BE DOMINATED BY
TROUGHING CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WASHINGTON/SOUTHERN BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND ITS SLOW MOVEMENT THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND HOW
IT INTERACTS WITH DOWNSTREAM EASTERN CONUS RIDING. IN THE NEAR
TERM THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANTS OF ISAIAS WILL WORK TO WEAKEN
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER BERMUDA ALLOWING EASTERN RIDGING AN AVENUE
TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME TROUGHING
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA/HUDSON BAY WILL WORK SOUTH FLATTENING THE
RIDING AND ALLOWING FLOW ACROSS THE NORTH CONUS TO BECOME MORE
ZONAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE MID LEVELS.
- TODAY
LOOKING AT CURRENT SURFACE OBS A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY
SITUATED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA. THIS
CURRENTLY KICKING OFF SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS ATOP A WELL MIXED
LAYER WITH ABOUT 200MB OF DRY AIR BENEATH THEM PREVENTING
ANYTHING FROM REACHING THE GROUND. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME STRONG WINDS OCCASIONALLY MAKE TO THE SURFACE AS SHOWERS
MOVE PAST (30-40MPH) VIA VIRGA BOMBS AND EVEN SOME LIGHTNING
LATER TODAY AS THE INSTABILITY PROFILES BUILDS TO OVER 500
MUCAPE. MIXING WILL REMAIN STRONGEST IN OUT SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WINDS TO 20MPH AND GUSTS OCCASIONALLY OVER 30MPH (SYNOPTIC
NOT CONVECTIVE). RH HAS ALREADY FALLEN TO NEAR 30 PERCENT ALONG
THE SD/ND/MN BORDER WITH FURTHER FALLS INTO THE MID/LOWER 20S
PERCENT BY 3PM BRINGING NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TO SOUTHEAST
ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. FUELS REMAIN QUESTIONABLE
WITH ERC STILL BELOW THE DAILY AVERAGE (AROUND 15-20). AN SPS
REMAINS IN EFFECT TO AID THE MESSAGING OF THIS BUT A RFW IS NOT
BEING CONSIDERED.
- WEEKEND RAIN
TRANSIENT VORTICITY ADVECTION THROUGH THE NEXT 2 DAYS WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A MOISTENING AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF
TODAYS COLD FRONT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE A PRIMARY
SOURCE OF LIFT THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT OVERALL FORCING REMAIN
FAIRLY NEBULOUS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER A GENERAL
TENTH TO QUARTER INCH SEEMS LIKLEY ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 200
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- LATE WEEK PRECIP CHANCES
PNW TROUGHING BY TUESDAY WILL HAVE DEVELOPED INTO AN UPPER LOW
COMPLETELY CUTOFF FROM STEERING FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN WITH A
STRONG JET STREAM EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS STRONG 100+ KT JET
STREAM WILL INDUCE A STRONG SURFACE RESPONSE WITH MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST AS SW FLOW ALOFT BRING
FORCING LATER IN THE WEEK FROM EJECTING SHORTWAVES TO RING OUT
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE PARTS THAT REMAIN UNCERTAIN ARE 1)
THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF MOISTURE AND 2) HOW ANY PASSING WAVES
INTERACT WITH SAID MOISTURE (TRACK/TIMING). GIVEN THIS
UNCERTAINTY THERE REMAINS A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN CLUSTERS
WITH ANYWHERE FROM A 0.25 TO OVER AN INCH OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE DOES SHOW
AN AIRMASS POTENTIALLY COLD ENOUGH TO BRING VARYING P-TYPES
INTO PLAY BUT BEING 5-7 DAYS OUT STILL WOULD LIKE TO SOME SOME
CONSISTENCY IN THAT BEFORE RAISING ANY CAUSE FOR ALARM.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
LOOKS LIKE IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CLOUDS WILL THE PREVAILING
FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES THRU THE PD. BRIEF PERIODS WHERE
CEILINGS RISE TO NEAR 1500 FT AGL ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS THRU E ND AND RRV 25-28 KT RANGE, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30
KTS POSSIBLE THOUGH AT THIS TIME NOT PREDOMINATE. BEMIDJI WILL
SEE NORTH WIND BUT LESS WIND GUSTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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