226  
FXUS63 KFGF 221550  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
950 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 950 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CWA,  
NOT HANDLED BY ANY MODEL PARTICULARLY WELL. SO FAR VISIBILITIES  
ARE NOT TOO BAND AND THINK THAT WE WILL GET ANOTHER DUSTING BEFORE  
SNOW TAPERS OFF COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON. BUMPED UP POPS FOR A  
BIT MORE THIS MORNING AND PUT IN SOME FLURRIES RIGHT AFTER, BUT  
OVERALL THINK THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A DRYING TREND LATER  
TODAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW CLEARING THE  
PEMBINA TO DEVILS LAKE TO NEW ROCKFORD AREA. MEANWHILE, THE  
STEADIEST SNOW SEEMS TO EXTEND FROM NORTH OF WADENA TO FARGO THEN UP  
TOWARD THE WASKISH AREA. BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE, THIS AREA COULD  
PICK UP ANOTHER 2 TO 3 INCHES. AFTER SUNRISE, THE EVENT SHOULD  
REALLY START TAPERING OFF. WIND SPEEDS HAVE STAYED ON THE LOWER END,  
SO NO DRIFTING SNOW RIGHT NOW.  
 
AS FAR AS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL OBSERVER REPORTS  
STARTING COMING IN AFTER SUNRISE TO GET A GOOD IDEA OF HOW MUCH  
FELL. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL RECENT (AS OF 2 AM) REPORTS IN SOME OF  
THE LARGER CITIES...ABOUT 2 INCHES IN FARGO, 4.5 INCHES IN GRAND  
FORKS, AROUND 6 INCHES IN DEVILS LAKE, AND AROUND 5 INCHES IN PARK  
RAPIDS. THESE AMOUNTS WERE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED AT DEVILS LAKE AND  
GRAND FORKS, WHERE A SNOW BAND LIFTED FURTHER NORTH AND REMAINED IN  
PLACE FOR SEVERAL HOURS LAST EVENING. THE AMOUNT AT FARGO WAS A  
LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED, BUT THEY ARE STILL IN THE CURRENT EARLY  
MORNING BAND, SO MORE CAN BE EXPECTED.  
 
WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST TODAY, BUT OVERALL NOT  
EXPECTING THEM TO BECOME GUSTY ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH DRIFTING SNOW.  
NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUN THERE WILL BE, BUT THERE SHOULD BE SOME BREAKS  
IN THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY.  
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE TRICKY AND WILL LIKELY DEPEND ON  
THE DEGREE OF CLEARING (IF ANY). WITH THE FRESH SNOW, IF IT DID STAY  
CLEAR FOR SEVERAL HOURS, TEMPERATURES COULD DROP QUICKLY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST TUE JAN 22 2019  
 
THERE ARE SEVERAL IMPACTFUL PERIODS TO NOTE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK  
AND WEEKEND, AS A SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS AND A  
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH DEVELOPS ALOFT.  
 
ON WEDNESDAY, A CLIPPER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH PASS FROM  
WESTERN MANITOBA TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT  
PRECIPITATION. WITH SATURATION PERSISTING IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND  
WARM NOSE IN THE 2-5KFT RANGE CAUSING POTENTIAL FOR ICE LOSS, SEE  
SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW WED  
AFTERNOON. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE EFFECTS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AS A STRONG SFC  
PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A  
FRIGID ARCTIC AIRMASS RUSH IN WITH STRONG NNW WINDS. ON WED NIGHT,  
STRONG MID-LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WELL.  
DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER  
MIXING WITH A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS AT 20-30 MPH WITH POTENTIAL  
FOR GUSTS 30-40+ MPH.  
 
ISSUING A WATCH FOR BLUSTERY GROUND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN ND AND THE RED  
RIVER VALLEY. PARTICULARLY CONCERNED FOR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WHERE  
WINDS PARALLEL TO THE VALLEY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED ENHANCEMENT OF  
STRONG WINDS. NEW WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF 2-4"+ FROM MONDAY AND EARLY  
TODAY WILL PROVIDE BLOWABLE FLUFFY SNOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. SUSPECT THIS WOULD MAINLY IMPACT TRAVEL IN OPEN  
COUNTRY AND RURAL AREAS, AND THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO NEW SNOWFALL  
DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME UNDERLYING UNCERTAINTY, AS  
THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF DETERMINISTIC WIND SPEEDS SEEM TOO LOW GIVEN  
PERSISTENCE AND THE SYNOPTIC SETUP, POSSIBLY FROM MOVING IN THE  
INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TOO EARLY. GEFS 10-M WINDS SHOW  
DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON THE LOW END OF WIND SPEEDS, FURTHER  
SUPPORTING THE THEORY THAT DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE DOWNPLAYING  
WINDS.  
 
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS -20 TO -40F WILL ALSO DEVELOP  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN ON THURSDAY,  
ALLOWING FOR IMPROVING VISIBILITY AND REDUCED BLOWING SNOW. HOWEVER  
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF  
THURSDAY, THURSDAY NIGHT, AND FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN  
IN THE TEENS TO 20S BELOW ZERO. HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TO BE  
A CONCERN EACH NIGHT AND MORNING FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE  
FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS  
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUOUSLY FALL BELOW THE ZERO MARKER.  
 
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A STRONG CLIPPER  
SYSTEM WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS IT  
MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BEHIND THIS  
SYSTEM, THE OUTLOOK LATER INTO NEXT WEEK LENDS CONFIDENCE TO ANOTHER  
REINFORCING SHOT OF FRIGID ARCTIC AIR AND HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CST MON JAN 21 2019  
 
VSBYS IN THE IFR RANGE THRU TUESDAY MORNING AT MOST SITES, THOUGH  
DVL WILL SEE THE SNOW END OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL VARY  
BUT MOSTLY IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH THE SNOW RISING INTO VFR  
TUESDAY MIDDAY AND AFTN. WINDS TURNING NORTHWEST TUESDAY 10 TO 20  
KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN E ND/RRV.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY  
MORNING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-  
052>054.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ030-039-053.  
 
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY  
MORNING FOR MNZ001>004-007-029-030-040.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001>003-005-  
006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...JR  
SHORT TERM...GODON  
LONG TERM...BP  
AVIATION...RIDDLE  
 
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