042
FXUS63 KFGF 161722
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1222 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON IN
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
REMAINING CLOUDS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT OF NE ND, AND WILL
GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT OF NW MN AS WELL THRU THE EARLY TO MID
MORNING. 850 MB MOISTURE AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROBABLY SOME
HIGH BASED CU DEVELOPMENT WITH DAYTIME HEATING TODAY IN NW MN,
PERHAPS IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND. OUTSIDE OF THIS A MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR PATCHY FOG FORMING IN AREAS THAT
CLEAR OUT AS WINDS THOUGH NOT CALM ARE VERY LIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN. HRRR REMAINS NOT AGGRESSIVE WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT EXCEPT FOR A FEW RANDOM PATCHES IN NW MN.
MONDAY FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH QUICKLY FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ENTERING NE ND IN THE MORNING AND EXITING
WC MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. THUS CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
T-STORMS WILL BE MORE MORNING/MIDDAY IN E ND AND FAR NW MN AND
AFTERNOON IN WC MN AND IT IS IN PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL MN WHERE
MU CAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON AND MAY
RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR STRONG OR LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS. THIS
AREA IS FERGUS FALLS TO PARK RAPIDS AND SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES BROAD RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS, WHICH HAS FLATTENED IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH
MOVING OVER SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
A COLD FRONT ARE MOVING OVER OUR REGION CURRENTLY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST MN. THERE IS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS,
HOWEVER MARGINAL SHEAR AND SKINNY/ELEVATED CAPE PROFILES WILL
LIMIT THE STRENGTH OF UPDRAFTS. ANOTHER MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS CANADA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AND EVENTUALLY DEEPENS NEAR
THE HUDSON BAY REGION, RESULTING IN A SHIFT TO MORE NORTHWEST
FLOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES (70S FOR HIGHS). BY LATE NEXT WEEK
RIDGING IS SHOWN BY ENSEMBLES TO BEGIN TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THOUGH THE STRONGEST HEIGHT RISES REMAIN SOUTH.
THIS SHOULD BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION
AND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE EITHER A WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THAT COULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL PROGRESSIVE WAVES AND
REBUILDING INSTABILITY TOWARDS OUR REGION, THOUGH THERE REMAINS
HIGHER SPREAD IN DETAILS.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK MONDAY
THE STRONGEST PART OF THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS NORTH OF OUR
REGION, AND THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD REGARDING THE
TIMING OF PVA/FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW IN CANADA.
THERE IS AT LEAS A SIGNAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
40-60% PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAIN (0.1"+). HOWEVER, THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF BOTH THE LARGER SCALE FORCING AND SURFACE
FEATURES/MESOSCALE DETAILS WHICH ARE STILL CARRYING LOWER
PREDICTABILITY/HIGHER SPREAD WITH MULTIPLE SCENARIOS ON
LOCATION, TIMING, COVERAGE OF SEVERE COVERAGE. MACHINE LEARNING
AND AI BASED SYSTEMS STILL HIGHLIGHT A 5%+ POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ND
TOWARDS PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2026
A LARGE CU FIELD WITH VARIABLE CEILINGS DEVELOPED AS MORNING
STRATUS BROKE UP ACROSS NORTHWEST MN, AND HAS EXPANDED INTO
EASTERN ND. MOST LOCATIONS ARE VFR, HOWEVER THERE ARE LINGERING
POCKETS OF MVFR MAINLY IN NORTHWEST MN. AS DAYTIME HEATING PICKS
UP THIS LAYER SHOULD TREND TOWARDS VFR (AROUND 5000FT AGL) THEN
CLEAR WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
10-13KT SHOULD ALSO DECREASE WITH SUNSET AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD.
EVENTUALLY LOW PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A FRONT
MONDAY MORNING, WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND THIS
FRONT BY MIDDAY. HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP INTO THE REGION
DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION,
HOWEVER COVERAGE/CHANCES DURING THE LATER TAF PERIOD ARE STILL
LOW (LESS THAN 30%).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...DJR
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