735
FXUS63 KFGF 061144
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
644 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS TODAY, THEN MILDER.
- NEAR CRITICAL OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
NO ADDITIONAL CHANGES. UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 12Z TAFS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT. MINOR TWEEKS TO SKY
COVER. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF THE UPPER WAVE AND ITS COOL
AIR ALOFT AND CLOUD COVER. SOME BREAKS OF SUN AGAIN, BUT CLOUDS
WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATE. COORD WITH BIS AND WILL MENTION NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN HWO FOR EASTERN ND. FOR MN COUNTIES,
COORDINATION LIKELY NEEDED AS DUE TO RH NEAR CRITICAL OR
CRITICAL RH VALUES MAY OCCUR THURSDAY AS WELL, DESPITE LOWER
WIND SPEEDS. SO WILL NOT JUMP THE GUN AND GO NEAR CRITICAL
WORDING YET IN MN COUNTIES UNTIL MORE COORDINATION ON THIS CAN
BE DONE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
..SYNOPSIS
EXPANSIVE AND STALLED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO RESIDE NEAR THE
HUDSON BAY/ON REGION. THIS PLACES OUR REGION UNDER NORTHERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH A CONTINUAL FEED OF RELATIVELY
COLD AIR MASS FROM NORTH-INTERIOR CANADA INTO OUR REGION. THIS
IS DRIVING OUR WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, AS WELL AS
KEEPING LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
WARMER AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ENCROACH INTO THE DAKOTAS FROM
THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BREEZY
WINDS ON BOTH OF THESE DAYS AS WELL. THE COMBINATION OF VERY DRY
AIR, POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED WINDS, AND PRESENTLY DRY FUELS WILL
DRIVE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR CRITICAL OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THESE DAYS.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION OUT OF CANADA IN A CLIPPER-LIKE
FASHION. THIS BRINGS A LOW CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN INTO OUR
REGION, WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE BEHIND IT.
NEXT WEEK, THE INFLUENCE OF THE STALLED HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW
OVER OUR REGION BEGINS TO LESSEN AS UPPER RIDGING FROM THE WEST
ATTEMPTS TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHER PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN HOW MUCH RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER
OUR AREA, WHICH WILL DICTATE TEMPERATURES. ON ONE HAND, RIDGING
MAY BE WEAK INTO OUR AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE. ON
THE OTHER HAND, RIDGING MAY BE STRONG, PUSHING TEMPERATURES
ABOVE AVERAGE. BOTH SCENARIOS KEEP QUASI-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT, KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGES AND ACCOMPANYING
PROGRESSIVE BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION.DESPITE THE LOWER
WIND SPEEDS (10-20 MPH).
..FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE THIS WEEK
VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE INDICATES A VERY DRY AIR MASS MOVING
INTO THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA FROM THE WEST STARTING THURSDAY.
THIS WILL PUSH RH VALUES INTO THE 20S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE TEENS IF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS. THIS IS
VERY DRY FOR OUR AREA. DEEPER MIXING WILL LIKELY ENSUE IF WE
STAY MOSTLY SUNNY ON EITHER OF THESE DAYS, WHICH STILL REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY, BUT IS LOW IN CONFIDENCE.
WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN VERY DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
THESE DAYS, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WINDS. THIS IS AGAIN STEMMING
FROM POTENTIAL TO MIX DEEPER THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. WHILE
WINDS CURRENTLY FORECAST ARE UNDER 25 MPH, IF EVEN A SLIGHT PUSH
OF DEEPER MIXING OCCURS, GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE 30S MPH.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IF THIS
OCCURS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
NOT TOO DISIMILAR FROM TUESDAY FOR TODAY. SOME CLEARING BREAKS,
BUT OVERALL A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY INTO THE EVENING. CLOUD BASES
LOOK TO REMAIN 4000 TO 8000 FT AGL WITH A NORTHWEST WIND
10-18KTS SUSTAINED AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS 20-23KTS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT AFTER SUNSET.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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