384
FXUS63 KFGF 101422
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
922 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS TODAY. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY, RAIN CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES LATER NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
AN SPS FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS IN EFFECT
TODAY DUE TO RH VALUES LESS THAN 35 PERCENT AND WIND GUSTS 25
MPH OR HIGHER. SPS COVER AN AREA FROM ROUGHLY PARK RAPIDS TO
MOORHEAD AND SOUTH. SIMILARLY NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..SYNOPSIS
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS. AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THIS PATTERN
AMPLIFIES, BRINGING CONTINUED STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE
AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH RECORDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. FURTHER NORTH, WIDESPREAD 70S TO LOW 80S ARE
LIKELY. A 500MB TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, USHERING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. RAIN
CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THIS FRONT
TRAVERSES THE REGION, WHICH WILL ACCOMPANY MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT
MIDNIGHT FOR AREAS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
RELATIVELY WARM DAY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH HEADING INTO
SUNDAY EVENING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ONCE MORE HEADING INTO MID WEEK AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS STILL SOMEWHAT LARGE AT THIS TIME, WITH
A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL QPF WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS,
HOWEVER, RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL BE FOUND TODAY IN SOUTHEAST ND THROUGH
WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN, WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS KFAR
AND KBJI WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KTS FERGUS FALLS AREA. GFK TVF AND
DVL WILL SEE A BIT LESS WIND WITH LESS GUSTS AS SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS LESS. COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHEAST ND TONIGHT
AND MOVES GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST. SCATTERED CIRRUS TODAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THEN INCREASING CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SOME MVFR CIGS
SPREADING IN VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO NE ND AND FAR NW MN IN THE
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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