463
FXUS63 KFGF 072109
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
409 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 2 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARD, WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR HAIL AND TORNADOES.
- THERE IS A 1 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- THERE IS A 3 OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALL HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 407 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
..SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S,
WITH THE EXPECTATION OF 90-95 DEGREES IN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT JUST BELOW 100 DEGREES IN
THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT'S TEMPS WILL COOL INTO
THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES, BUT WILL DEPEND ON SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO FORM IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, THEN MOVE EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG A LOW LEVEL JET, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO MUCH OF WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LATE EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING: THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO HOW STRONG THESE STORMS
WILL BE ONCE THEY ENTER THE REGION. MLCAPE VALUES ALONG THE AXIS ARE
RANGING FROM 3000-3500 J/KG IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA; HOWEVER, MANY
OF THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE AWAY FROM THIS AXIS UPON
DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE FOR MCS
MAINTENANCE FURTHER TO THE EAST, AS LOW TO MID LEVEL SHEAR FALL
QUICKLY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR SEVERE
STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE A WEAKENING LINE OF SEVERE STORMS, WITH
THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT) AND HAIL. DCAPE VALUES ARE UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE EVENING, ALLOWING THE RAPID
PROGRESSION OF ANY STORMS STILL ONGOING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST, ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THESE STORMS COULD BRING STRONG, IF NOT OCCASIONALLY
SEVERE IMPACTS TO THAT AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING,
WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 60 MPH.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: MOISTURE ADVECTION REMAINS STRONG HEADING
INTO TUESDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES OUT OF THE SOUTH. SBCAPE IN
MODEL SOUNDINGS RANGES FROM 3000 J/KG TO 4000 J/KG, WITH LOW TO MID
LEVEL SHEAR RANGING FROM 20 TO 40 KNOTS. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS, WITH GOOD SUPPORT FOR
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT JUST WEST OF THE CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG
ENVIRONMENTAL SUPPORT EXISTS FOR RAPID UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO A
LINEAR MCS OR QLCS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG SUPPORT FOR ALL
HAZARDS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA, AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. DCAPE VALUES, EFFECTIVE
SHEAR, LAPSE RATES, AND CAPE ARE ALL WITHIN A RANGE THAT ENCOURAGE
MCS MAINTENANCE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON, EVENING, AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT. AS SUCH, A MENTION OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT), TORNADOES, AND LARGE HAIL ARE ALL SUPPORTED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING AT KDVL,
WITH MINIMAL CHANGES IN TIMING EXPECTATION AND OVERALL PROB30
CHANCES STARTING AROUND 03Z. AT KGFK AND KFAR, WE COULD SEE A
FEW REMNANT ISOLATED STORMS OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH VERY LOW SPATIAL
CONFIDENCE. FOR KTVF AND KBJI, A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD AND BRING A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AREAS THAT
RECEIVE RAIN OVERNIGHT COULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS BRIEFLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS TODAY WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH,
WITH GUSTS IN THE 30-35 KNOT RANGE, ESPECIALLY AT KDVL, KFAR,
AND KGFK.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
015-024-026-028-038-054.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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