077
FXUS63 KFGF 031301
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
701 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TODAY INTO TONIGHT, TRACE TO
TWO TENTHS.
- TEMPS TO TURN ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY AND THEN INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
AFTER THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUANCE, DID COORD WITH BIS AND
UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS FOR AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THRU THE DVL BASIN. RADAR RETURNS AND
VSBYS INDICATED MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES WE HAD IN THERE, SO
WANTED TO MENTION LIGHT SNOW AND ALSO THREW IN WPC QPF TODAY AND
TONIGHT TO GIVE AT LEAST A LITTLE BIT OF LIGHT ACCUMULATION.
KEPT LOW POPS INTO THE AFTN INTO THE RRV.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ONE IS IN SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
AND THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY AND BRING SOME FLURRIES INTO
NORTHEAST ND. SECOND ONE UPSTREAM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT. TRACE TO A TENTH OR TWO
ACCUMULATION. STRONG 500 MB WAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST
FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO LATE WEDNESDAY AND THIS
IS ON THE EDGE OF 850 MB WARM ADVECTION WHICH MOVES IN
WEDNESDAY, WITH RISING TEMPS WED NIGHT AND A MILD DAY THURSDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. HIGH TEMPS IN THE FORECAST
OF 35 TO 42 DEGREES IS ON THE 75TH PERCENTILE RANGE OF NBM.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-30 MPH THOUGH WILL AID IN WARMING. COLD
FRONT DOES DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN TOWARD
06Z FRI AND THRU ALL AREAS FRIDAY EARLY MORNING. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION, BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW FORECAST
ALONG THE FRONT. HINTS DO SHOW UP OF A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES WITH THE FRONT IN COLDER AIR WITH 925 MB WINDS 30 KTS
AVAILABLE FOR MIXING. SO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE IS A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AND STRONG ENOUGH WIND TO BRING
BRIEF PERIOD OF VISBILITY REDUCTIONS. CHANCE OF ADVISORY IMPACTS
WOULD BE LESS THAN 5 PERCENT AT THIS POINT.
COLDER FRIDAY, THEN WARMING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS 500 MB FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US MID WEEK. THIS MAY AID
IN BRINGING INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 658 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
INITIAL CLOUDS MOVING EAST INTO THE VALLEY ARE VFR MID CLOUDS,
AND THESE WILL SPREAD EAST THRU NW/WC MN TODAY. ENOUGH
SATURATION TAKES PLACE AT 850 MB FROM WEST TO EAST THRU THE DAY
INTO TONIGHT TO GRADUALLY LOWER CEILINGS TO MORE MVFR RANGE BY
TONIGHT. I KEPT -SN OUT OF THE TAFS THEMSELVES IN MOST LOCATIONS
JUST DUE TO UNCERTAINITY IN TIMING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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