630
FXUS63 KFGF 032340
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY INTO LAKES COUNTRY OF WEST- CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 55 MPH.
- FOURTH OF JULY AFTERNOON HOLDS MEDIUM CHANCE FOR WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN HAZARD IS LIGHTNING, WITH VERY
LOW CHANCE OF STORMS BEING SEVERE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
BROAD, WEAK UPPER TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL PROVIDE TRANSIENT FORCING ALOFT, WHILE ALSO KEEPING
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THIS AND TOMORROW AFTERNOONS INTO EARLY EVENINGS. COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED GIVEN LACKLUSTER FORCING
OVERALL. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, MAINLY IN
MINNESOTA, THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
STORMS FOURTH OF JULY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME - MAINLY DUE TO LACK OF
SHEAR AND BETTER FORCING.
INTO NEXT WEEK, THIS UPPER TROUGHING FLATTENS WITH THE APPROACH
OF AN UPPER JET INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, CONCURRENT WITH
UPPER RIDGING ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE NEXT
WEEK. THIS PLACES THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TOWARD
THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EVENTUAL UPPER RIDGING. THIS
PATTERN SHIFT STARTS WITH A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY, OFFERING PERHAPS MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THIS INCLUDES POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE, ALTHOUGH MORE LIKELY TO BE ON THE
LOWER END-SEVERE IF AT ALL.
EMBEDDED IMPULSES OF ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WILL OFFER ALMOST DAILY OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS, ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEHIND MONDAY'S COLD FRONT. THIS IS ALSO
NEARING THE END OF THE PREDICTABILITY HORIZON WITH RESPECT TO
THUNDERSTORM DETAILS.
..STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK LOWERED COVERAGE OF THE LEVEL 1 OF
5 RISK AREA, CONFINED NOW TO PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL, WEST-
CENTRAL MN, AND SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. ISOLATED STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AREA, CAPABLE OF SMALL
HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND GUSTS TO 40-55 MPH. WARM LOW LEVEL AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE OVERALL MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MAY ALLOW
FOR BRIEF HEAVY RAIN, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING - ESPECIALLY IF THIS OCCURS OVER URBAN AREA (E.G.
BEMIDJI).
THIS AREA GENERALLY HOLDS TODAY'S THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH
HELP FROM LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONCURRENT WITH WEAK, TRANSIENT
MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF SD. WITH OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE WEAK TO MODERATE SIDE AND LITTLE IF
ANY SHEAR TO ORGANIZE STORMS, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE
MEAN FLOW TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST, WITH TENDENCY TO ALSO
PROPAGATE TOWARD THEIR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ADDITIONALLY,
EXPECTING STORMS TO BEHAVE IN A PULSE-LIKE FASHION.
..FOURTH OF JULY
WEAK TO PERHAPS MODERATE INSTABILITY STILL SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION FOR THE 4TH OF JULY, BUT THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
AGAIN IS VERY WEAK. DUE TO THE ONGOING FESTIVITIES AND OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES FOR THE 4TH, WE DO WANT TO NOTE THAT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS VERY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE SCOPE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THIS WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON ANTECEDENT
CONVECTION DROPPING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENT ZONES.
WITH THE LACK OF FLOW ALOFT AS WELL, STORMS MAY BE STATIONARY
IN SOME LOCATIONS, SO MINOR FLOODING COULDN'T BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY IF THIS OCCURS OVER URBAN LANDSCAPES. OVERALL THIS
CARRIES VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 40%
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA, ALTHOUGH THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED.
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS VERY LOW THANKS TO VERY WEAK SHEAR
AND LACK OF BETTER FORCING.
HEAT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO
LOW 80S, DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S, AND GENERALLY PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES KEEPING SUN-RELATED IMPACTS LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL IN EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN,
WITH THE LONE EXCEPTIONS WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TRACKS IN NORTHWEST MN (BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS). THAT ACTIVITY
SHOULD END OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SUNSET. THERE IS A
SIGNAL STILL FOR MVFR STRATUS TOWARDS NORTH CENTRAL ND AND
NORTH CENTRAL MN WHICH MAY IMPACT KDVL AND KBJI DURING THE
11-14Z PERIOD. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS (LESS
THAN 10KT) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR
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