621
FXUS63 KFGF 231921
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
121 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A 1 TO 2
HOUR PERIOD OF BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS IN NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY DURING THE
MORNING HOURS, WITH IMPROVEMENT INTO THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM CST MON FEB 23 2026
..SYNOPSIS
ZONAL TO NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THIS FA RIDING A
BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OCCASIONALLY, SHORTWAVES WILL BRING BOUTS OF PRECIPITATION, FOLLOWED
BY COLDER AIR. THE FIRST ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BRINGING LIGHT PRECIPITATION, STRONG WINDS AND
BLOWING SNOW. ANOTHER SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WILL PASS NEAR OUR FA, BUT
COLD AIR IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS SYSTEM LOOKS TO KEEP THE TRACK OF
THIS SECOND WAVE MORE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. LATE IN THE WEEK
TEMPERATURES WARM, BUT THIS WILL LAST ONLY A DAY OR TWO AS A
POTENTIALLY STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOMETIME ON FRIDAY.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AMONGST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, THE WEEKEND
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.
PROBABILITIES FOR WIND CHILLS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TO DROP
INTO THE -30S (COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA) ARE OVER 50%
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.
..SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
A QUICK HITTING SHORTWAVE WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER, A WARM FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT, FOLLOWED
QUICKLY A FEW HOURS LATER BY A COLD FRONT. AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES
THROUGH, ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL AID IN FORMING A NARROW BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE FA. WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT,
THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS A WINTRY MIX,
ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2. ANY
IMPACTS FROM FREEZING RAIN LOOK TO BE LIMITED BY THE DURATION OF
THIS PRECIPITATION, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING DURING/AFTER THE TIME IT FALLS. FURTHER NORTH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, LIGHT SNOW WILL BE THE PREDOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIGHT,
WITH A TRACE TO 2 INCHES GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY
2.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF THE FA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT, AND 6 HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 10 MB OR SO SHOULD AID
IN A BRIEF BUT STRONG PERIOD OF WINDS. WITH A BLOWABLE SNOWPACK,
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL
OCCUR AREA WIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DURING THE BRIEF
PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS, SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW WILL BRING A
BRIEF (1-2 HOUR PERIOD) OF BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS, WHICH
UNFORTUNATELY LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS TO EXPERIENCE THIS ARE ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 200 FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND POINTS TO THE WEST.
WHILE THESE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WILL BE OF A SHORT DURATION,
IMPACTS MAY BE HIGHER DUE TO THE TIME OF DAY THEY ARE FORECASTED
TO OCCUR.
AFTER THE MORNING HOURS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS FAIRLY
QUICKLY AND CAA IS WEAK TO NON EXISTENT BY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME FALLING SNOW THAT LINGERS ALL DAY. HOWEVER WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND TEMPERATURES STILL ABOVE ZERO, THERE ARE
QUESTIONS AROUND HOW LONG VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS OF A HALF MILE
OR SO WILL LAST. THAT LEAVES A VERY SIMPLE BOTTOM LINE: THE
WORST CONDITIONS WITH BLIZZARD TYPE VISIBILITY WILL OCCUR
DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE, WITH CONTINUED POOR BUT IMPROVED
VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR TODAY, WITH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LOWERING OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS A SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE IMPACTED BY A COMBINATION OF FALLING AND BLOWING SNOW,
ESPECIALLY AT KGFK, KDVL AND KTVF. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
AROUND HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL GET FROM BLSN, ALONG WITH HOW
LONG THE LOWERED VISIBILITIES WILL LAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN STUCK IN MVFR AS THE SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF IFR. IN ADDITION TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES, WINDS WILL PICK UP FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
BESIDES THE VISIBILITY AND CEILING REDUCTIONS, LLWS WILL BE AN
ISSUE GENERALLY FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT SUNRISE AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KBJI. WHILE THE CHANCE IS LOW, IT SHOULD ALSO
BE MENTIONED THAT FREEZING RAIN/WINTRY MIX IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME FROM 8Z
THROUGH 12Z. PROBABILITIES WERE TOO LOW TO ADD IN ANY PROB30S AT
THIS TIME.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
MNZ001-002-004-005-007-008-013>015-022.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page