822
FXUS63 KFGF 070033
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR 0.5 OF AN INCH OR MORE OF
SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WEST OF A LINE FROM
DEVILS LAKE TO FARGO.
- LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECASTED AROUND THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WHICH MAY AFFECT BAUDETTE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 632 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AS SATURATION IS ONGOING. FURTHER
NORTH INTO MANITOBA, RAIN AND SNOW HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AND WILL
DIVE DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO OUR AREA AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CENTERED NORTH OF WINNIPEG CONTINUES TO DIG.
ANY AMOUNTS FROM SNOWFALL SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND AT MOST A
FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED GIVEN WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND TIME NEEDED FOR THE COLD FRONT ALOFT TO PUSH
THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
..SYNOPSIS
A BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ALONG IT, TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE, ONE OVER SOUTH
DAKOTA, ANOTHER OVER SASKATCHEWAN, ARE PROPAGATING TO THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST. BROAD WAA/SYNOPTIC ASCENT OVER THE FA HAS LEAD TO
LIGHT RADAR REFLECTIVITIES THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER, DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE HAS KEPT ANYTHING FROM
REACHING THE GROUND, PER NDAWN AND ASOS OBSERVATIONS. AS
STRONGER FORCING AND BETTER MOISTURE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW OVER SASKATCHEWAN, LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL
BREAK OUT, PRODUCING A BROAD, ALBEIT LIGHT AREA RAIN AND SNOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION
IS EXPECTED, WITH ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS FAVORING GRASSY
SURFACES NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY FOSTER LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS INTO LATE FRIDAY MORNING, BUT DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM
CANADA SHOULD END ANY REMAINING SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
ON THE HEELS OF TONIGHTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. WITH A TRACK MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST, SNOW WILL BE
LIMITED TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. IT WILL BE A COLD
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS BELOW FREEZING, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
TEENS.
THE COLD SNAP WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER, AS RIDGING FROM THE
PACIFIC BUILDS IN NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE 40S AND 50S FOR HIGHS THROUGHOUT NEXT WORK WEEK.
..FRIDAY & SATURDAY SNOW
WHILE TONIGHTS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW, THE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. BROAD
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT, ALONG WITH TRANSIENT FRONTOGENESIS, WILL FOSTER A
BROKEN BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SOMEWHERE NEAR THE FGF AND BIS CWA
BORDER. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES
SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. THE PROBABILITY FOR 0.5" OR
MORE OF AN INCH OF SNOW IS 60% WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY,
DROPPING QUICKLY TO UNDER 10% WITHIN THE VALLEY.
..LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WITH THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WORKING THROUGH THE FA THIS
WEEKEND IN CONJUNCTION WITH RELATIVELY WARM LAKE WATER
TEMPERATURES, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DOWNWIND OF LARGER AREA
LAKES, PARTICULARLY LAKE OF THE WOODS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN LIMITED DUE TO THE AREAL COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
CEILINGS WILL FALL THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES WITH A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR LIFR AT TVF AND BJI. RAIN AND SNOW MAY MIX IN WITH
THIS, INHIBITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH THE ONLY SITE
WITH A GREATER THAN 50% PROBABILITY FOR THIS IS DVL, HENCE WHY
IT IS IN THE TAF. THE TIMEFRAME FOR THIS WILL GENERALLY BE AFTER
06Z, BUT COULD IMPACT DVL/GFK/TVF/BJI JUST BEFORE 06Z. AS THE
SUN RISES TOMORROW, CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO RISE SLOWLY BACK INTO
MVFR AND CLEAR OUT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.
EVENTUALLY, ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...PERROUX
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