654  
FXUS63 KFGF 191810 AAD  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
110 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
TRIMMED BACK DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOME LOCATIONS BUT EXTENDED  
THE TIMING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.  
PERSISTENT FOG OVER THE JAMES VALLEY HAS SLOWLY BEEN ADVECTING  
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG BEGINNING TO  
SCATTER AND LIFT AS IT ADVECTS EAST TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY  
IN SOUTHEAST ND. WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA, BUT EXPECT  
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON AS MIXING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
WILL EXTEND DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR  
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST MN AND THE JAMES VALLEY AND DEVILS LAKE  
BASIN IN EASTERN ND. AREA DOT WEBCAMS AND GOES 16 SATELLITE  
IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG PERSISTING IN THESE AREAS. THE  
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST VISIBILITY WILL BEGIN TO  
IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING  
STRENGTHENS.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
GOES 16 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG  
OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN IN  
EASTERN ND, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.  
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT FOG IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE, SO  
REMOVED RICHLAND COUNTY FROM THE ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER  
WHETHER TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN  
ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
DENSE FOG HAS SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS COOPERSTOWN, BUT HAS YET TO  
SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST ND. MID LEVEL CLOUDS STILL TRANSITIONING  
EAST AND LIGHT FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OF CLEARING, SO  
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY AS WELL AS DENSE  
FOG TO THE NORTH TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN  
SHOWING. LEAVING DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW WITH SUN YET TO  
RISE AND MIXING NOT LIKELY TILL LATER THIS MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
NW FLOW ALOFT IS STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. ONE STRONGER  
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW PASSING OVER ND (CURRENTLY ON SUBSIDENT  
SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS), WHILE ANOTHER IS PROJECTED TO PASS EAST-  
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE  
ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED AND WITH FORCING EVEN FURTHER EAST  
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH THAT ANY THING WILL MEASURE TODAY/TONIGHT.  
PERIODS OF NON-MEASURABLE PRECIP (SPRINKLES/FLURRIES) CAN'T BE  
RULED OUT THOUGH, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN.  
 
EARLY THIS MORNING: DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD OUR  
NORTHWEST CWA AS MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CLEARED. THIS TREND IS SHOWN  
TO CONTINUE BY RAP/HRRR WITH DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS  
MUCH OF EASTERN ND AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHWEST MN. GUIDANCE IS  
LIMITING EXTEND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH BETTER  
COVERAGE FURTHER WEST. CAVALIER IS ALREADY REPORTING DENSE FOG AND  
THIS IS FURTHER EAST THAT GUIDANCE HAS IT, SO I-29 I WAS CONFIDENT  
ENOUGH BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH  
16Z (11AM) FOR EASTERN ND COUNTIES IN OUR CWA. WILL MONITOR TRENDS  
IF ANY COUNTIES IN MN NEED ADDED.  
 
REGARDING TEMPERATURES: AIR MASS ALOFT IS A LITTLE COOLER AS A  
RESULT OF PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING  
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS MONDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE  
MIDDLE 30S MOST LOCATIONS TO LOWER 40S (IN OUR FAR EAST). BREEZY  
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT (WNW WINDS 15  
TO 25 MPH) AND LOW LEVELS WILL BE MORE MIXED THAN PREVIOUS FEW  
NIGHTS. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH VALUES IN THE  
UPPER 20S/NEAR 30 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING  
TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION. A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS IN THE  
FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS  
AND 20S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.  
 
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH  
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES TO THE REGION. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE  
WARMING TREND GOING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH INCREASING  
MOISTURE. CURRENTLY, THERE REMAINS A RELATIVELY LARGE DEGREE OF  
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF, MAINLY REGARDING THE  
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS H5 LOW TO OUR SOUTH, WEAKENING AS IT  
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST IN RESPONSE TO SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT RIDGING  
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CURRENTLY, WE ARE LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF  
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. QPF  
VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME, GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE  
TENTH OF AN INCH.  
 
FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, WE ARE LOOKING AT A BRIEF RETURN TO  
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA  
HEADING INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019  
 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH  
EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN  
MANITOBA. VLIFR FOG PERSISTS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ND FROM BAC  
TO GWR. THIS MAY IMPACT VSBYS/CEILINGS AT TIMES AT FAR THIS  
AFTERNOON AS IT ADVECTS EASTWARD AND SCATTERS OUT. ANOTHER AREA OF  
LOW STRATUS PERSISTS JUST NORTH OF BJI, BUT LATEST SATELLITE  
TRENDS INDICATE THAT IT WILL LIKELY NOT AFFECT BJI THIS AFTERNOON.  
DESPITE INITIALLY SEEING VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING,  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG EAST AND  
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN THE 06Z-18Z PERIOD WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ026-028-  
029-038-039-049-052.  
 
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ004.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...BP  
SHORT TERM...DJR  
LONG TERM...LYNCH  
AVIATION...BP  
 
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