713
FXUS63 KFGF 052353
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
553 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DENSE FOG CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
- FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA, EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND PUSHING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR WINTER IMPACTS OVER PARTS OF THE
REGION. PREDICTABILITY IN IMPACTS REMAINS VERY LOW BEYOND
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 120 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..SYNOPSIS
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE CENTER OF A LOW
PRESSURE BETWEEN BISMARCK AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. A WARM FRONT
SITS ATTACHED TO THIS AND APPEARS ROUGHLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE
SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY. EAST OF THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES RANGE IN
THE 30S TO LOW 40S WHILE WEST OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES ARE
COOL IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE WESTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH FOG ONGOING AROUND IT.
GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN
BY THE CURRENT CUTOFF LOW OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO OSCILLATE IN LOCATION OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW OVER US. VERY LOW PREDICTABILITY
EXISTS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS CUTOFF LOW, BUT AT A MINIMUM
THERE IS LARGE ENSEMBLE CONSISTENCY IN LARGELY WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WITH INTERMITTENT JET STREAKS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW.
WHILE THE CUTOFF CONTINUES TO GO ON ITS OWN DOWN SOUTH, WE WILL
LIKELY SEE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR ACTIVE WEATHER. REGRETTABLY, THE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT THAT WILL SET UP ON TOP OF US AND LARGELY
ZONAL FLOW DOES LEAVE US SUSCEPTIBLE TO POTENTIAL FRONTOGENETIC
BANDING. AGAIN, PREDICTABILITY IS VERY LOW IN ANY IMPACTS SO
STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.
..FOG TODAY
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN FOCAL POINT FOR
ADVECTION FOG THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH WITH
THE FRONT WESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LARGELY INTERMITTENT 1/4SM VISIBILITIES,
HOWEVER GIVEN THE HIGH PREDICTABILITY FOR 1/4SM FOG AND
PERSISTENCE EXCEEDING SEVERAL HOURS, A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED. DISPERSED BETWEEN FOG, FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS BEEN
OBSERVED AND IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR ADVECTION REMAINS VERY STRONG OVER US.
WHILE THE CURRENT DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOES UNTIL 6 PM, FOG IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN REASON
FOR THE EXPIRATION AT 6 PM IS TO AVOID OVERCOMPLICATING
HEADLINES, AS FREEZING RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME THE LARGEST
THREAT THIS EVENING.
..FREEZING RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT/TOMORROW
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL BE
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN. THIS AFTERNOON, LARGE SCALE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION IS CONTRIBUTING TO ONGOING FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE WARM FRONT
PROPAGATES WESTWARD, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
BE TAKEN WITH IT. HOWEVER, AS A WAVE COMING IN FROM NORTHERN
MONTANA APPROACHES, THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND
EVENTUALLY BECOME A COLD FRONT, FORCING EASTWARD PROPAGATION.
WITH THE INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THE SYNOPTIC WAVE,
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD.
THERMAL PROFILES WILL BE VARIABLE CAUSING DIFFERENT
PRECIPITATION TYPES BASED ON LOCATION. SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AROUND THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW FREEZING
DESPITE TEMPERATURES ALOFT ACHIEVING ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
CREATES A PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN. AREAS
WITHIN THE ABOVE FREEZING AREA ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE RAIN. THIS
SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WILL PROPAGATE EASTWARD WITH THE FREEZING
RAIN AREA SLOWLY BEING OVERTAKEN BY COLDER AIR, THUS ALLOWING
FOR A TRANSITION TO SNOW. UNFORTUNATELY, MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH WHEN THIS TRANSITION OCCURS, SO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR FREEZING RAIN CONCERNS. THERE IS
VERY LITTLE CONCERN AT THIS TIME WITH REGARDS TO SNOW POTENTIAL
AS IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONG WARM NOSE WILL LARGELY INHIBIT ANY
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THIS FREEZING RAIN SO USE CAUTION
WHEN OUT TRAVELING TONIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
LIFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECASTED TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS AT
SOME POINT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO LOW
VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS, A MIX OF FZDZ AND -FZRA WILL ALSO IMPACT
TERMINALS. -FZRA WILL START IN KDVL/KGFK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS, TRACKING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME, CLEARING KFAR AND KBJI
LAST SOMETIME FRIDAY MIDDAY. BEHIND THE -FZRA, A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOW IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS PRECIPITATION
TRANSITIONS FROM -FZRA TO -SN, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS
EXPECTED. CEILINGS WILL FINALLY IMPROVE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH MVFR FORECASTED FOR KDVL AND KGFK. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AT
OTHER TERMINALS LIKELY LIES JUST BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF
PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY FOR NDZ038-039-049-052-053.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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