714
FXUS63 KFGF 250441
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1141 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- THE PROBABILITY OF IMPACTFUL WEATHER DURING THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS IS LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
THERE HAS BEEN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE FERGUS FALLS AND ELBOW
LAKE AREAS. BOTH LOCATIONS DROPPED TO 1/4 MILE, BUT IT HAS BEEN
SOMEWHAT BRIEF. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS IT MOVING VERY
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 15
MPH RANGE, WHICH SEEMS TO BE JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FOG FROM
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AND LONG LASTING. WENT AHEAD AND ADDED
FOG TO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE FERGUS FALLS TO ELBOW LAKE AREAS
FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE THERE IS STILL A SMALL BAND
OF CLOUDS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN RRV INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THEN FURTHER UPSTREAM, MORE CIRRUS IS
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MODELS SHOW THIS DIVING
SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, BUT IT MAY STILL CLIP PORTIONS OF THE FA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
JUST SOME MINOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LEFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST FA,
DOWN AROUND PARK RAPIDS AND WADENA. THIS SHOULD EXIT OFF TO THE
EAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AS THIS MOVES OFF, CLOUD COVER
WILL ALSO DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUD COVER OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THAT IS ALSO SLIDING SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION
THIS EVENING, STAYING MOSTLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. WIND SPEEDS
WILL ALSO DECREASE PRETTY QUICKLY AFTER DARK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
..SYNOPSIS
AT THE MOMENT, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POSITIONED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AS A RESULT, SOME
SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN
MINNESOTA, AS AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE EASTWARD
TOWARDS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS HAVE MOSTLY STAYED SOUTH OF
FARGO, WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXTENDING NORTH TO THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY STAY WITHIN THE LOW
TO UPPER 50S, WITH THE WARMEST AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS LARGELY IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S. HOWEVER, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY THE TIME TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING, LIMITING THE CONCERN
FOR ANY SNOWFALL.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION, A
VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND WITH RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER. FRIDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 50 IN NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA, TO AROUND 55 IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
NORTHWESTERN FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP POPS VERY LOW, WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS MIGHT
BECOME A BIT BREEZY AND GUSTY FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE FARGO
AREA. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE EACH DAY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY,
AS MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE RIDGE STRENGTHENING AND
SLOWLY TRANSITING THE CENTRAL CONUS TO THE EAST. THERE REMAINS NO
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH VERY WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES BRINGING ABOUT OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF INCREASED
CLOUD COVERAGE, SPECIFICALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, AS WELL AS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY STAY MOSTLY
WITHIN THE 50S, WITH SUNDAY SEEING HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 60S
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY, BEFORE MONDAY RISES FURTHER INTO THE LOW
70S, WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
SOMEWHAT LIGHT, WITH SOME BREEZY SOUTHERLIES POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, MOSTLY WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY
AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE NEXT SUBSTANTIAL
WEATHER SYSTEM, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN
WIDESPREAD MEDIUM CHANCES (MOSTLY RANGING FROM 30 TO 60 PERCENT) FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING EARLY TUESDAY, LASTING
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A LARGE, RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO THE PLAINS AND DEEPEN AS IT
APPROACHES, RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE INITIAL FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH PRECIPITATION
FOLLOWING SHORTLY AFTER. ONE OF THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL
RUNS AT THIS POINT IS THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH, WHICH WILL
IMPACT HOW MUCH IT COOLS OFF, AS WELL AS HOW WIDESPREAD THE
PRECIPITATION WILL BE. LOOKING AT THE MOST RECENT LONG RANGE CLUSTER
ANALYSIS (VALID FROM 00Z OCTOBER 30 THROUGH 00Z OCTOBER 31), THERE
APPEARS TO BE 2 GENERAL SCENARIOS THAT ARE POSSIBLE: 1) A DEEPER
TROUGH, RESULTING IN A STRONGER COLD FRONT AND LARGER PRECIPITATION
SHIELD (ROUGHLY A 60 PERCENT CHANCE), AND 2) A SOMEWHAT WEAKER
TROUGH, WITH LESS COOL TEMPERATURES AND LESS WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION (ROUGHLY A 40 PERCENT CHANCE). AT THE MOMENT, THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL MOSTLY STAY AS RAIN, THOUGH
SOME SNOW CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, AS LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY DROP TO AROUND
28 DEGREES. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO BREEZY
ANYWHERE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE 40S AND LOW 50S BY
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU OCT 24 2024
THE PATCHY FOG THAT HAS FORMED SO FAR TONIGHT HAS ONLY BEEN IN
THE FERGUS FALLS AND ELBOW LAKE AREAS, AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT ANY
OF THE TAF SITES. THEREFORE, THERE IS NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER
ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN IN
THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK UP AND BECOME A BIT
GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE DROPPING QUICKLY AGAIN IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON
DISCUSSION...BESSON
AVIATION...GODON
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