878
FXUS63 KFGF 312013
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
313 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020
IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL FOCUS ON THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WILL SEE
INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
AS WAA PERSISTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITHIN THIS WWA REGIME
A SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWERS
AND ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS 850MB SOUTHERLY LLJ
INCREASES TO NEAR 40KTS INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY BEFORE VEERING
OFF INTO MN. TO THAT EXTENT A STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM IS
POSSIBLE IN WEST CENTRAL MN TOMORROW MORNING.
IN THE WAKE OF THE WAA THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL BRING DAYTIME
HIGHS, AS LONG SKIES CLEAR AS EXPECTED, INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WEST WINDS AID IN DRYING OUT DEW PTS AND
LOCALLY RAISING VALLEY TEMPS. ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MONDAY NIGHT
WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA ALONG THE DAKOTA HIGH PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020
THE IMPACTS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE INCREASING LEVELS OF HEAT
WITH SOME HUMIDITY, WITH SCATTERED THUNDER EARLY FOLLOWED BY A
BETTER PRECIPITATION SIGNAL LATER ON INTO THE WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE AS A FEW SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE TOP OF
OUR UPPER RIDGE. WARMEST TEMPS SHOULD BE TUE/WED, WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S AND NOT MUCH POSITIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT LIMITING
DEWPOINTS ONLY TO THE LOW 50S. A COLD FRONT/TROUGH, STILL LOOKING
DRY AND NOT ALL THAT COOL, IS SCHEDULED TO SWING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE WED/EARLY THU TIME FRAME. BEST
SYNOPTICS FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO REMAIN BOTH NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND TO THE SOUTH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE OF THE WEST COAST ON FRI/SAT
KICKING OUT OUR RIDGE AND ALLOWING FOR SW FLOW AND INCREASING
MOISTURE DURING THIS TIME. ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATING RATHER HIGH
PW/QPF ANOMALIES BY THE WEEKEND, WHEN WE SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR MORE
ACTIVE CONVECTION AND AN END TO OUR MINI-DROUGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2020
SE WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 25KT RANGE EXPECTED FOR ALL BUT
BJI THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THOUGH SCATTERED COVERAGE LIMITS
THE INCLUSION AT THIS ISSUANCE WILL MONITOR THAT POTENTIAL. HAVE
ALSO NOT INCLUDED BUT WANT TO ADDRESS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW MORNING. IF CONVECTION OCCURS THEN
AN AREA OF STRATUS MAY FORM IN ITS WAKE. WILL ALSO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page