642  
FXUS63 KFGF 130444  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
1144 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021  
 
STILL EXPECTING THE LIGHT SNOW TO PICK UP OVERNIGHT, BUT AS OF  
LATE EVENING, IT WAS STILL PRETTY SPOTTY. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN  
ENOUGH THAT ROADS COULD BE SLICK IN SPOTS FROM BEING WET.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021  
 
THE BAND OF SNOW BETWEEN DEVILS LAKE AND THE FARGO-MOORHEAD AREA  
HAS ROTATED A LITTLE FURTHER WESTWARD NOW...BACK TOWARD THE  
COOPERSTOWN NORTH DAKOTA AREA. HOWEVER, THE VISIBILITY AT  
COOPERSTOWN IS STILL 3 MILES, AND A NEARBY WEBCAM SHOWS JUST A  
DUSTING ON THE ROAD...SO OVERALL IMPACTS ARE STILL NOT TOO BAD  
YET. MODELS STILL SHOW AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY GETTING GOING AGAIN  
AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021  
 
SNOWFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THIS EVENING'S FORECAST.  
AT THIS POINT, WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE SNOW TO  
MAINLY BE WET AND IT HAS NOT BEEN STICKING TO ROADS. THE ONLY  
EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM PEMBINA TO CANDO,  
HOWEVER SNOWFALL RATES THERE ARE NOT HEAVY ENOUGH TO EVEN RESULT  
IN LOW VISIBILITIES YET. THE REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SOMEWHAT OF A  
GAP OVER MOST OF THE NORTHWEST MINNESOTA RIGHT NOW. SO FOR MOST  
AREAS, THERE WILL BE A LULL UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING. NO CHANGES  
TO THE FORECAST ARE NEEDED AT THIS POINT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021  
 
500 MB LOW THIS AFTERNOON WAS JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH AND THIS WILL  
MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST AND THEN BACK SOUTH THE  
NEXT 24 HOURS. A DRY SLOT IS WORKING WEST INTO NW MN AND NE ND  
LATE AFTN/EVE, BUT NEXT SURGE OF MOISTURE ANTICIPATED ARRIVING  
LATER THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY AM. THERE IS A BAND OF 700 MB  
FRONTOGENESIS WITH THIS AS IT MOVES WEST AND SOUTHWEST FROM  
ONTARIO AND NW MN THRU E ND. SO FROM 06Z TUE TO 18Z TUE SHOULD BE  
OUR MAIN TIME TO ACCUMULATE SNOW. IT DOES APPEAR ANY STRONGER  
BANDS OF SNOW WILL BE ORIENTED NW TO SE AS THE BAND OF MID LEVEL  
FRONTOGENESIS MOVES THROUGH, SO A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBLE.  
SO THIS DOES BRING UP THE IDEA OF LOCALLY HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMS THAN  
IS IN THE FCST, BUT ALSO BAND IS MOVING SO HEAVY RATES NOT LONG  
LASTING. SO OVERALL EXPECT A GENERAL 3-6 IN NE ND AND FAR NW MN  
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
 
SFC LOW JUST NORTH OF HIBBING MN WILL MOVE BACK WEST THIS EVENING  
AND AS IT DOES BRING WARMER AIR WEST INTO BAUDETTE/BEMIDJI AREA  
AND FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT KEEP THEM NEAR OR ABOVE 32F. THUS LESS  
SNOW ACCUMULATION THERE. COLD AIR WILL FILTER SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THRU  
E ND AND INTO THE RRV AND WEST CENTRAL MN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY,  
AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S ALL  
BUT THE FAR EAST. THESE TEMPS WILL GIVE THE POTENTIAL FREEZING OF  
SNOW/WATER ON ROADWAYS AFTER DARK INTO TUESDAY AM AND FOR THIS  
REASON IN AREAS WHERE 3+ INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED DID ISSUE A  
WINTER WX ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT/TUES.  
 
SNOW TO END/MOVE OUT TUESDAY NIGHT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021  
 
THE PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS UNSETTLED AS A BROAD UPPER  
TROF IS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE UPPER LOW FINALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD  
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHERLY WINDS  
REMAINING OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT  
SOLAR SHOULD SOMEWHAT OFFSET THE COOLER AIR.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL DRIFT  
SOUTH OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PCPN. AS  
THE PATTERN REORGANIZES...THE LOW MOVES SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO REBOUND. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING  
TREND...AND MINIMAL PCPN...TO END THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON APR 12 2021  
 
HAVE KEPT WITH THE IDEAS FROM THE 00Z SET OF TAFS, SO NOT A LOT OF  
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL POSSIBLY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS  
HAVE LOST MOST OF THEIR GUSTS, BUT THEY WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MID  
TUESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS LOOK TO REMAIN EITHER IFR OR LOW END  
MVFR THROUGHOUT. VISIBILITIES MAY BOUNCE AROUND (LIKE THEY ARE  
DOING NOW), BUT IT IS NOT WORTH CHASING THEM TOO MUCH.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-  
014>016-024-026>030-054.  
 
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR MNZ001-002-  
004-005-007-008-013>016-022-023.  
 

 
 
UPDATE...GODON  
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE  
LONG TERM...HOPKINS  
AVIATION...GODON  
 
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