867
FXUS63 KFGF 262326
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
526 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 ON FRIDAY.
NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, THESE STRONG WINDS MAY RESULT
IN BLOWING SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 145 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE WARM FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH OVERNIGHT HAS LEFT US WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO EVEN LOWER 40S THIS AFTERNOON. ON
FRIDAY, A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH IN
CANADA. ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BARREL THROUGH OUR FA
FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY DROP, WITH
GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH OVER MUCH OF EASTERN ND INTO
NORTHWESTERN MN. BEHIND THE FRONT, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN
FOR THE WEEKEND, DROPPING TEMPERATURES QUITE SIGNIFICANTLY.
THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM WITH A BAND OF FRONTOGENESIS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE ARE A HANDFUL OF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THAT BRING IT A BIT FURTHER NORTHEAST INTO
RANSOM/SARGENT COUNTIES, PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW. HOWEVER, MANY
TIMES IN THESE SITUATIONS, THE DRIER, COLD AIR WINS OUT, KEEPING
SNOW FURTHER SOUTH THEN MODELS INDICATE. THEREFORE, SNOW
CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST, BUT CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DWINDLE
AS MORE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT A FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST TRACK.
AS WE GO INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, ZONAL FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY
MODERATING TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING AREA WIDE. AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE
TO NO SNOWPACK MAY APPROACH 50 DEGREES.
..WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ON FRIDAY
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ACROSS
THE NORTH DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. A DEEP MIXED LAYER WITH
MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES OF UP TO 45 KNOTS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND 40 KNOTS AS FAR SOUTH AS I-94 SHOULD
PROMOTE WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE FA. AS THE
INITIAL SURGE OF CAA PASSES THROUGH THE FAR NORTH, THERE IS A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE MOMENTUM TRANSFER VALUES APPROACH 50 KNOTS.
WHILE THE PROBABILITY IS LOW, A STRAY 55 TO 60 MPH GUST IS
POSSIBLE IN THE LANGDON - PEMBINA - ROSEAU CORRIDOR. HOWEVER,
FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE EVENT, GUSTS SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND
55 MPH. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN CONSIDERABLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
GAIN CONTROL.
WHILE WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY INTO TONIGHT ARE WORKING HARD TO
CREATE A CRUST ON THE SNOW, AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WILL
NOT EXPERIENCE AS MUCH TIME ABOVE FREEZING. IN ADDITION, THIS IS THE
AREA THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE FORECAST. ITS NOT QUITE THAT SIMPLE
THOUGH, AS SEVERAL OTHER FACTORS ARE WORKING AGAINST BLOWING
SNOW. FOR EXAMPLE, WE START OFF VERY WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT (NEAR/ABOVE FREEZING). THIS MEANS IT WILL TAKE SEVERAL
HOURS TO GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS/SINGLE DIGITS - WHICH
IS WHEN SNOW TYPICALLY RESPONDS BETTER TO THE WIND, AND LOFTS.
BY THE TIME THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES WORK IN, THE BEST CAA
BUBBLE WILL BE TO THE EAST, MEANING WINDS WILL BE BEGINNING TO
DIE DOWN. ON TOP OF THAT, IF WE GET A BIT WARMER TONIGHT AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT FROM COMPRESSIONAL HEATING, WE COULD SEE A
THICKER CRUST FORM ON THE SNOWPACK, ENDING ANY REAL CHANCES FOR
BLOWING SNOW. EVEN WITH THESE REMAINING UNCERTAINTIES, THE
STRENGTH OF THE WIND MAKES IT HARD TO IMAGINE THAT THERE WILL
BE ABSOLUTELY NO BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. THEREFORE,
WHILE MOST OF THE FA HAS BEEN PLACED UNDER A WIND ADVISORY, FOUR
COUNTIES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ARE INSTEAD UNDER A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY FROM
BLOWING SNOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. NO AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
THIS EVENING. AS WE GO INTO TONIGHT, AVIATION IMPACTS WILL
INCREASE AS LLWS EFFECTS ALL TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST.
THEREAFTER, ON FRIDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH.
THIS WILL BRING STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. THE HIGHEST
WINDS SHOULD OCCUR NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF OVER 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 40 KNOTS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ006-014>016-
024-026>030-038-039-054.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
NDZ007-008.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>003-
006>009-013>017-022-023.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
MNZ004-005.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...TT
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