387  
FXUS63 KFGF 192005  
AFDFGF  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND  
305 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
 
AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW IS  
EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST HAS BROUGHT SOME LINGERING RAIN TO  
THE SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY. DRIER AIR PUSHES SOUTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON  
AND CAN BE SEEN ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS.  
 
TONIGHT, COOL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE  
WILL DOMINATE THE REGION. AS SKIES CLEAR, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP  
INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH SOME MID TO UPPER  
20S POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS. FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE  
ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.  
 
MONDAY, A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS EXPECTED...ALBEIT A BIT COOL COMPARED TO  
AVERAGE/NORMAL. LIGHT WINDS, SUNNY SKIES, AND HIGHS IN THE 60S  
ARE EXPECTED. MAV GUIDANCE IS EVEN TRYING TO GIVE GFK A HIGH OF 70  
TOMORROW.  
 
MONDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO FALL WITH INCREASING  
CLOUDS AND EAST WINDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE APPROACHING FROM  
THE SOUTHWEST AND MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS TO THE FAR SW ZONES BY  
SUNRISE.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
 
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE AN  
ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PRECIPITATION PATTERN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK  
WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  
ON TUESDAY, A WELL DEVELOPED SUB-990 MB LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF  
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE GRADUALLY FILLING  
IN. THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL,  
AND PROBABLY MORE NOTABLE WILL BE DEVELOPING GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE  
EAST ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW, A DIRECTION NOT TYPICAL FOR  
GUSTY WINDS IN OUR AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN RED  
RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SEE GREATER THAN 40 MPH  
WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL VALUES IN THE UPPER PERCENTILE FOR THE DIRECTION  
AND MAGNITUDE. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING INTO  
NORTH DAKOTA ON WEDNESDAY, WINDS WILL LESSEN WHILE RAIN BECOMES MORE  
SPOTTY BUT CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. RAIN AMOUNTS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY  
RANGE FROM AROUND A QUARTER TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES WITH LOCALLY  
HIGHER AMOUNTS. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP HIGH  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A BREAK IN RAIN  
BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE COMES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS LOW AGAIN  
MOVES OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE ADVECTING SOME MORE INSTABILITY  
COMPARED TO THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY WAVE. AS OF NOW, TIMING BRINGS  
BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY OVERNIGHT WITH SEVERE WEATHER  
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS MOMENT. THIS WAVE COULD BRING ANOTHER INCH OR  
SO OF RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH SKILL AND CONFIDENCE IN RAIN AMOUNTS THIS  
FAR OUT INTO THE FORECAST IS LOW. THE PATTERN CHANGES SOMEWHAT AS  
THE WESTERN TROUGH SPLITS GETTING INTO NEXT WEEKEND, PERHAPS  
ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A DRY PERIOD WITH CONTINUED COOLER THAN NORMAL  
CHANCES CONTINUE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)  
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2019  
 
MVFR CIGS/VIS AND -RA LINGER AROUND KFAR THIS EARLY  
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE SHORTLY AS MODELS  
HAVE HINTED THAT IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN DONE ALREADY. RADAR IS  
SHOWING SIGNS OF DRYING AND BASED ON LATEST TRENDS MOST -RA  
SHOULD BE SOUTH NEAR SD BORDER AND PERHAPS TO THE EAST NEAR FFM  
AND SAZ BY MID AFTERNOON. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES  
FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD ONCE FAR IMPROVES. IMPROVING CIGS AND  
LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. PATCHY FOG NOT  
OUT OF THE QUESTION NEAR FAR OR FURTHER SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...BUT  
IT LOOKS RATHER UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ND...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR NDZ006>008-  
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.  
 
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR MNZ001>009-  
013>017-022>024-027>032-040.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KNUTSVIG  
LONG TERM...CJ  
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab ND Page
The Nexlab MN Page Main Text Page