769
FXUS63 KFGF 272328
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
628 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
- SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL BE
COMMON THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS
LATE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE TROUGH THAT HAS BROUGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING (AND A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE IN NORTH CENTRAL MN) IS TRANSITIONING TO THE NORTH,
WHILE THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BRING RAIN CHANCES
WEDNESDAY IS CENTERED OVER OREGON UPSTREAM. AFTER THE NEXT WAVE
PASSES WEDNESDAY A LARGE UPPER LOW AND PERSISTENT TROUGH PATTERN
IS SHOWN TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED UPSTREAM OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WITH A GENERAL SW FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. OUR IMMEDIATE REGION WILL
TEND TO BE UNDER BROADER RIDGING WITHIN THIS SPLIT-SOUTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN INITIALLY KEEPING MORE ACTIVE TRACKS AND RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE REGION. HOWEVER AS THE MORE ACTIVE SW FLOW
PATTERN BUILDS EAST TOWARDS THE WEEKEND THERE ARE GENERAL RAIN
CHANCES WHICH INCREASE AS THE LARGER UPPER LOW/TROUGH FINALLY
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CURRENT
CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS TO THE SOUTH, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A
BROAD PRECIPITATION SIGNAL WITH THIS PATTERN CHANGE. DUE TO
ABOVE AVERAGE AIR MASS REMAIN IN PLACE THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
SIGNAL/TREND TOWARDS ONLY RAIN.
..RAIN ON WEDNESDAY
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OREGON QUICKLY PROGRESSES ACROSS
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT, MOISTURE
RETURN, AND SOME INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING RAIN
COVERAGE PARTICULARLY IN MN HEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL ZONE.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED
HIGHER RAIN TOTALS. STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
THIS FAR NORTH WITH ANY POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY FARTHER
SOUTH. GENERAL TOTALS WILL BE LIGHTER FOR MOST AREAS WITH PROBS
FOR 0.1" AND 0.25" HIGH EAST OF THE RRV BUT PROBABILITY IN
NBM/HREF FOR 0.5" LOWER (20-30% IN OUR FAR EAST) AND LIKELY
DEPENDENT ON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS (IFR) IS IMPACTING THE ENTIRE REGION,
WITH POCKETS OF LIFR CIGS. EVENTUALLY WITH A SHIFT TO SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW, DRIER BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS SHOULD HELP
GRADUALLY IMPROVE CEILINGS FOR SOME LOCATIONS TO MVFR AND EVEN
SOME AREAS OF VFR, HOWEVER THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR STRATUS AND
POSSIBLE FOG TO FILL BACK IN OVER AREAS WHERE BETTER RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE TONIGHT. FOR NOW NORTHWEST MN HAS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PREVAILING IFR (OR MVFR) CONDITIONS TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE NEXT SYSTEM
ARRIVES WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING DURING
THE LATE MORNING HOURS IN EASTERN ND. PERIODS OF RAIN ACROSS
NORTHWEST MN DURING THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT/DJR
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