487
FXUS63 KFGF 302340
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR FROST AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- MEDIUM CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS SATURDAY, MAINLY WITHIN
MINNESOTA. ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER 0.25
INCHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..SYNOPSIS
INFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER TROUGH IN CANADA SPREADS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, STARTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING AS A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. THIS WILL INCREASE
WINDS AND BRING TODAY'S ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BACK TOWARD
AVERAGE THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUSTY THIS
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS REINVIGORATE
AREA-WIDE BY LATE MORNING, LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-35 MPH CAN BE ANTICIPATED, HIGHEST IN
NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN.
WHILE COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 30S ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT IN NORTHEAST ND, A STEADY LIGHT BREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM TANKING VIA RADIATIONAL
COOLING. THIS WILL LIMIT THE CHANCE FOR FROST.
FROST BECOMES MORE LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ITSELF MORE INTO OUR REGION KEEPING WINDS
CALM AND SKIES CLEAR. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG CURRENTLY RESIDES IN
NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN, BUT AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF
I-94 ALSO HOLD A MEDIUM CHANCE OF SEEING FROST.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR FROST EXIST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK,
PARTICULARLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT BRINGING A MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THIS WAVE IS LIKELY TO BE DEVOID OF
OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT, THUS RAIN AMOUNTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE RATHER LOW - LESS THAN QUARTER OF AN INCH.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IN TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE RIDGING EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THIS REMAINS IN QUESTION.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF TREND IN TEMPERATURES TOWARD SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES; OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE IN THE
PROCESS TO SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD. THESE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT UP TO 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON THURSDAY. GUSTS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL APPROACH 25 KNOTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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