147
FXUS63 KFGF 231200
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
700 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
CLOUDS CLEARING GRADUALLY NORTHWARD WITH CLEARING IN LANGDON AND
CAVALIER AND CANDO IN THE PAST 2 HOURS. AREA OF CLOUDS BEMIDJI-
PARK RAPIDS AREA HOLDING ON. DID SEE SOME CLOUDS IN THE MID RRV
BUT THAT HAS SINCE DISSPIATED. SO OVERALL PATCHES OF CLOUDS THIS
MORNING WITH MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS. NO CHANGES NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
MINIMAL WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED, MAINLY TIED TO LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND PTYPE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN ND.
TO START TODAY, THE AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS THAT HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT
NEAR THE MANITOBA BORDER IS STARTING TO LIFT A BIT NORTH OR
NORTHWEST IN TIME WITH CLEARING NEARING CANDO-LANGDON-HALLOCK.
THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LOWER CLOUD COVER BEMIDJI AREA WHICH HAS
GROWN A BIT AND PUSHIND WEST A BIT. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THE CENTRAL RRV PRIOR TO DAWN. SO WE
WILL START THE DAY WITH AREAS OF SUN AND CLOUDS. IN CLEARER AREA
TEMPS AT DAWN WILL BE IN THE MID 20S. EXPECT TODAY WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH A DEVELOPING EAST-SOUTHEAST
WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA MOVES EAST. HIGHS TODAY IN THE
40S. IN SUNNIER AREAS HIGHS MAY APPROACH 50 WITH BEST CHANCE OF
THAT IN THE MID AND SOUTHERN RRV.
TONIGHT WILL SEE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST WITH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ENTERING WESTERN ND SPREADING GRADUALLY EAST. BUT IT
WILL BE FIGHTING DRY AIR FROM HIGH IN NW ONTARIO...SO EASTWARD
PROGRESSION WILL BE SLOW. SLOWED DOWN EAST ADVANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FROM PREV FCST A BIT. BY 12Z SUN SHORT TERM MODELS
ALL INDICATE LIGHT PRECPITATION ROLLA TO DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY
CITY-FORMAN AND WEST. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS RISE A BIT WITH THICKER
CLOUDS MOVE IN WITH SYSTEM BUT DO EXPECT TEMPS IN THE 34-37
DEGREE RANGE IN PRECIPITATION AREA, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR 34 AND
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN ESP WEST OF CITY OF DEVILS
LAKE. IN THIS AREA JUST WEST OF CITY OF DVL, INCL MADDOCK, NEW
ROCKFORD, LEEDS, WHERE THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MINOR ACCUMULATION
DAWN SUNDAY. BUT EVEN THE 90TH PERCENTILE NBM (10 PCT CHANCE) IS
ONLY SHOWING 0.5 INCH THERE. SO EVEN IF MOSTLY SNOW ACCUMS WILL BE
MINOR. FCST WILL GO OUT WITH AROUND 1/4 INCH SNOW PSBL. ANY MIX
WILL CHANGE TO LIGHT RAIN PRIOR TO NOON SUNDAY. EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF LIGHT RAIN IS QUESTIONABLE AS SYSTEM WILL RUN INTO
DRY AIR FROM THE ONTARIO HIGH WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY TO DRY UP
EVENTUALLY. THINK IT WILL BE VERY HARD TO GET RAIN ANY FARTHER
EAST THAN LANGDON, GRAND FORKS, DETROIT LAKES, WADENA. SO EAST OF
THIS AREA IT WILL BE DRY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
PRINCIPAL CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL COME ON TUE/WED IN
THE FORM OF WIND POTENTIAL TUE AND SOME RAIN FOR LATER TUE INTO
EARLY THU.
PCPN EVENT FOR SUN WILL BE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION SUN NIGHT
LEAVING A DRIER AND SEASONAL MON IN ITS WAKE. BY TUE RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SUFFICIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO GENERATE WINDY CONDITIONS OVER ALL BUT EXTREME EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. GEFS/NAEFS ENSEMBLE PRODUCTS INDICATE A SOLID
CORE OF 40 TO EVEN 50 KT 850 MB SOUTH WINDS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
WINDS WILL EASE ON WED AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL PLAINS
AND INTO THE MIDWEST. WE'LL BE LEFT WITH MORE OF A TROUGH/SFC FRONT
ARRANGEMENT (AS CLUSTERED SOLUTIONS MOSTLY MOVE THE UPPER TROUGH INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS) WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ENOUGH PWATS FOR A
STRATIFORM PERIOD OF RAIN FROM LATE TUE INTO WED, SLOWLY ENDING OVER
THE MN SIDE AT SOME POINT ON THU.
WARM AIR ADVECTION EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL DRIVE HIGH TEMPS ABOVE 50
ON TUE JUST AHEAD OF THE FROPA, THEN TURNING MORE SEASONAL BEFORE
ANOTHER WARM UP TO END THE PERIOD ON FRI.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHERN MN, MAINLY BEMIDJI/PARK
RAPIDS AREA NORTHWARD TO ROSEAU AND THEN WEST ALONG THE MANITOBA
BORDER. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR. SUSPECT THE MVFR CLOUDS MAY HANG
ON THRU THE MORNING EAST (BJI) WHEREAS REST OF THE AREA REMAINS
MOSTLY CLEAR. INCREASING CLOUDS THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WEST,
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS AT FIRST, BUT LOWER CEILINGS PSBL DVL REGION BY
12Z SUN AS PRECIPITATION MOVES IN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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