548
FXUS63 KFGF 272328
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
628 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW GUSTS EXCEEDING 45MPH.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH 7PM.
- RAIN WRAPPING UP THIS EVENING WITH DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE CURRENT SHORTWAVE BRINGING OUR RAIN WILL WORK OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONDITIONS DRYING OUT
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND BY MIDNIGHT FOR
THE MINNESOTA COUNTIES. IN OTHER NEWS MODERATE PRESSURE RISES
AND A TIGHTENED PGF ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED WINDS ACROSS THE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON (WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7PM)
WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. BEYOND TODAY ZONAL FLOW TOMORROW
BECOMES NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH THIS LASTING THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK AS HIGHS STAY 45-55 DEGREES THROUGH THURSDAY.
WARMING UP FRIDAY ONWARDS WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST AREAS
AS THERMAL RIDING CREEPS OVERHEAD. VARIOUS LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NEXT
WEEK BUT OUR CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION OF A WETTING (>0.10")
RAIN IS LOW.
- TODAY
DRYING PROFILES ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2 ARE LEADING TO
DIMINISHING RADAR RETURNS WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LEADING TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH
ANOTHER TENTH TO QUARTER INCH THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM FARGO TO
BAUDETTE AND POINTS SOUTH BRINGING EVENTS TOTALS WIDELY ABOVE 1"
IN AREAS THAT CURRENTLY FALL INTO "ABNORMALLY DRY" ON THE
DROUGHT MONITOR CLASSIFICATION. DEFINITELY A RAIN THAT FALLS
INTO THE CLASSIC MIDWEST "WE NEEDED THIS" CATEGORY. WINDS AS
STATED ABOVE WILL BE DYING OFF AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT WITH A FEW
GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH STILL EXPECTED, THOUGH LOOKING TO BE LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT GIVEN A SOUTHERN MN LOW
AROUND 995MB RATHER THAN 990MB AS FORECASTED YESTERDAY RESULTING
IN A WEAKER SURFACE PGF.
- REST OF THE WEEK
ZONAL FLOW TOMORROW WILL USHER IN MUCH CLEARER SKIES, THOUGH IT
WILL ALSO BRING BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS WHICH STAY IN PLACE THROUGH
THE WORKWEEK. AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THE PERIOD ARE AROUND 60 SO
ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR MOST WOULD BE THE
EXPECTATION. AS WE NEAR THE WEEKEND THERMAL RIDGING FINALLY
MOVES EAST OFF THE ROCKIES BRING A SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL
AIRMASS AND PUSHING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. DURING
THIS TIME ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW A NUMBER OF LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVES THAT COULD BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS BUT ANY GIVEN
CLUSTER NEVER SHOWS A HIGHER THAN 30% CHANCE FOR A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR MORE. THIS SLIGHTLY RAISES CONFIDENCE IN A MOSTLY
INACTIVE PERIOD BUT THINGS ARE CERTAIN TO CHANGE AS IS THE NORM
IN THE WORLD OF WEATHER. THE HDWI ALSO FAILS TO EVER GET ABOVE
THE 75TH PERCENTILE DESPITE DAILY MINRH OF 30 TO 40 PERCENT.
WOULD BE SURPRISED AT THE VERY LEAST IF THERE ISNT A DAY OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS... JUST
NOT SURE WHERE OR WHEN.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT MON APR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE RETURNING TO MUCH OF EASTERN ND AMD KTVF,
WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AT KFAR ABOVE 3000 FT AGL
AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER THE 00Z VALID TAF TIME. MORE EXPANSIVE
STRATUS WITH POCKETS OF LINGERING LIGHT RAIN ARE STILL AROUND
KBJI AND IFR CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT THAT SITE
UNTIL LATE EVENING, WITH VFR NOT CURRENTLY FAVORED UNTIL AFTER
06Z TONIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS AT KGFK CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40KT, BUT AS THE
SUN SETS GUSTS SHOULD DROP BELOW 30KT IN THE 01-02Z PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL TEND TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15KT RANGE THROUGH
THE NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20KT DURING THE
PEAK MIXING/HEATING PERIOD TUESDAY AFTERNOON (ALONG WITH SHALLOW
SCATTERED CU).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ008-016-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>004-007-
029.
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...DJR
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