623
FXUS63 KFGF 140354
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
954 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCENARIOS ARE BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FOR THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY
SYSTEM WITH MOST SHOWING ADVISORY IMPACTS THURSDAY AND NEAR
WARNING TYPE IMPACTS ON FRIDAY.
- MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 953 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
SKIES REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. EXPECT A QUIET
NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO TO THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH
BREEZY CONDITIONS ONGOING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING WITH
AREAS BEHIND THE FRONT ALREADY IN THE MID TEENS. WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT ARE GENERALLY SUSTAINED BETWEEN 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-35 MPH. AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD, THIS WILL EXPAND
SOUTHWARD WITH IT. LIMITED IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS
THIS FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD WITH ONLY COLD TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT
WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 110 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THE PATTERN REMAINS TRANSIENT AS EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVES GIVE WAY
TO DOMINANT WESTERN RIDING AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO MINNESOTA AND THE GREAT LAKES
LATER THIS WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT WITH WINDS GUSTING NEAR 40 MPH ALONG THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER IN STORE UNTIL THURSDAY.
- TONIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA STRONG LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION WITH WINDS OF 40KTS NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL SUPPORT A FEW GUSTS OVER 40 MPH THROUGH EASTERN ND
AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. A FEW STRAY
SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ND BUT
OTHERWISE THIS FRONT SHOULD BE A DRY ONE. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT
DROP QUICKLY FROM THE CURRENT LOW TO MID 30S (SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING) TO THE TEENS LEADING TO SOME CONCERN OF A FLASH FREEZE
FOR ANY AREA ROADWAYS THAT ARE STILL WET YET FROM THE OVERNIGHT
RAIN WHERE CLOUDS HAVE PREVENTED EFFICIENT DRYING PERHAPS. NOT
CURRENTLY SEEING ANY IMPACTS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WHERE THIS TEMPERATURE DROP HAS ALREADY OCCURRED NOR COULD WE
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES FOR IT SHOULD WE NOTICE SAID IMPACTS BUT DO
WANT TO MESSAGE THE POTENTIAL IN HERE.
- THURSDAY/FRIDAY
THE HIGHER END SCENARIOS WHICH UP UNTIL NOW HAVE INCLUDED THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY AN OUTLIER WITH 1-3" MORE LIKELY OVER THE COURSE
OF THE EVENT (THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON). WITH ONLY 1
TO MAYBE 2" FALLING PRIOR TO THE FRIDAY MORNING COLD FRONT
THERE WILL LIKLEY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH EXISTING BLOWABLE SNOW TO
LEAD TO WIDESPREAD BLIZZARD TYPE CONDITIONS. THUS WE CHECK THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FALLING SNOW DRIVEN BLIZZARD WITH YET AGAIN THIS
SCENARIO LIKELY COMING UP SHORT OF THE AREAL COVERAGE FACTOR
THAT WE LOOK FOR (>80%). NEVER THE LESS WITH FALLING SNOW AND
WINDS OF 20-30MPH THIS WILL LIKLEY LEAD TO ADVISORY CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASED
POST FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY MORNING COMBINED WITH
PRECIPITATING HCR'S LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD WHITEOUT
CONDITIONS (50-80% OF THE TIME). THIS WOULD EITHER BE A VERY
BORDERLINE BLIZZARD TYPE EVENT FROM A COVERAGE PERSPECTIVE
SIMILAR TO THE DEC 4 2024 EVENT. SO COULD END UP GOING EITHER
WAY WITH SLAM DUNK SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30-35MPH AT THE MINIMUM
AND MAYBE A 30-50% COVERAGE FACTOR FROM THE HCR SIDE OF THINGS.
CURRENT GUESS WOULD BE AN ADVISORY IF HCR'S ARE MORE WIDELY
SPACED OR A WINTER STORM WARNING AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
FRIDAY MORNING IF THE HCR'S ARE PRODUCING MEANINGFUL SNOW ON
THEIR OWN/ARE MORE TIGHTLY PACKED TOGETHER ALLOWING FOR LESS
RECOVERY TIME IN BETWEEN WHITEOUT PERIODS FOR TRAVELERS.
BLIZZARD SEEMS TO ONLY STILL BE ON THE TABLE PENDING ENOUGH SNOW
ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT WITH A 30% CHANCE OR LESS
FOR >2" PRIOR TO 12Z FRIDAY WITHIN AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY WHERE THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO THE WORST IMPACTS.
SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT IF THE WINDS ARE THE MAIN IMPACT AND
SNOW/BLOWING SNOW IS MINIMAL DUE TO NO PRECIPITATING HCR'S/LACK
OF THURSDAY SNOWFALL THERE IS A SCENARIO WHERE A HIGH WIND
WARNING IS WARRANTED FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH FOR MORE
WESTERN AREAS (WEST OF THE RED RIVER MOST LIKELY) THAT SEE VERY
LITTLE SNOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 512 PM CST TUE JAN 13 2026
AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH ALL
TAF SITES EVENTUALLY BECOMING VFR. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY WITH FREQUENCY OF GUSTS ALSO DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT,
BUT WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED ABOVE 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BY 12Z TOMORROW, EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH TO BELOW 12
KNOTS FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH ONLY THE OCCASIONAL GUST THROUGH
THE DAY TO 15-20 KNOTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...PERROUX
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