770
FXUS63 KFGF 030539
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
MONTH.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
SURFACE HIGH REMAINS PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
AND NORTHWESTERN MN, WITH TEMPS WELL BELOW ZERO AND DEW POINTS
IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE. ANOTHER WEAK VORT DIGGING DOWN FROM
CANADA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND OVERNIGHT WILL BRING
CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES, BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH FOR IMPACTS. BETTER CHANCES FOR MORE THAN
FLURRIES WILL BE LATER TUESDAY AS ANOTHER, STRONGER SHORTWAVE
COMES DOWN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 943 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS FOR A SHARPER CUTOFF BETWEEN CLOUDY SKIES IN
THE WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES, AND CLEAR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. STILL LOOKING LIKE A LARGE RANGE BETWEEN LOW TEMPS AROUND
ZERO IN THE WEST AND CLOSE TO -15 IN THE NORTHEAST. A BIT OF A
EASTWARD SHIFT IN THE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED, BUT PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN MN SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 623 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
OBS AND RADAR SHOWING NOT MUCH SNOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND
CURRENTLY, WITH JUST A NARROW BAND ON RADAR AND SOME FLURRIES
STILL AROUND OAKES. THE DOWNWARD TREND IN SNOW WILL CONTINUE AS
THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES SOUTH AND WE GET MORE DRY AIR MOVING IN.
WILL LET THE SHORT TERM GRAPHIC FORECAST EXPIRE, WITH THE NEXT
ROUND OF LIGHTLY ACCUMULATING SNOW COMING IN LATER
TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 150 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..SYNOPSIS
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
AND NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING WEAK WAVES
THROUGH OUR AREA. IN THE LOWER LEVELS MORE ZONAL FLOW AND
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CHINOOK AIRMASSES MOVING EAST BRING CHANCES
AT TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THERE IS STILL SOME
NOTABLE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR EAST THESE LOW LEVEL BUBBLES OF
WARMTH MOVE BUT SHOULD THEY MOVE AS FAR EAST AS SOME CLUSTERS
ARE SHOWING THEN HIGHS NEAR 40 ARE CERTAINLY WITHIN THE CARDS
(FOR AREAS MOSTLY WITHOUT SNOW COVER). CLUSTERS BEYOND THIS
WEEKEND DO HINT AT FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS RIDGING BREAKS
DOWN AND POTENTIALLY EVEN BECOMING SW AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEK
BUT MINIMAL ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IS DISPLAYED AT THIS RANGE.
- TONIGHT
WITH GENERALLY WEAK SYNOPTIC SUPPORT ASIDE FROM DCVA AND SOME WAA
MAINLY FOCUSED IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND AT THIS POINT, MODERATE SNOW
RATES CONTINUE TO BE DRIVEN MAINLY BY UPRIGHT INSTABILITY ATOP
THE 850- 700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY SNOW REPORTS
YET BUT JUST LOOKING AT WEBCAMS AND PLOWCAMS IT SEEMS THAT MOST
AREAS ARE ONLY SEEING 1-2" AT MOST SO FAR AND THE FEARS OF
ORGANIZED STATIONARY BANDING HAS NOT PANNED OUT. STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS IN SOUTHEAST ND (SOUTH OF HWY 200) TO SEE
SOME OF THESE HEAVY RATES REMAINS INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS THE
WAVE PULLS SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA BUT NOT LOOKING AT TOO MUCH
ACCUMULATION, MAYBE A INCH OR SO.
- TUESDAY NIGHT
A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING WEAK DCVA AND SOME WAA TO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
RESULTING IN SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE GENERALLY
WEAK SYNOPTIC SUPPORT AND FAST MOTION OF THE WAVE ONLY EXPECTING A
COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW, WITH AREAS FROM HALLOCK TO
BEMIDJI AND EAST SEEING A > 50% FOR 0.03" QPF OR ~0.5" OF SNOW
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT VIA
A WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WEAK CAA BLOWING SNOW IS
ALSO A LOW CONCERN LIMITING THE IMPACT POTENTIAL OF THIS WAVE TO
NUISANCE SNOWFALL.
- WARMTH PERSISTING
AS WE CARRY ON THROUGH THE WEEK, LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING
CONTINUES TO BUILD TO OUR WEST WITH INTERMITTENT SURGES OF THE
WARM BUBBLE EASTWARD OVER OUR REGION. ONE SUCH SURGE COMES
THURSDAY WITH WITH THE NBM 25TH TO 75TH SHOWING ANYWHERE FROM
LOW 30S TO LOW 40S. GRANTED THAT PROBABLY DOESNT PROPERLY
ACCOUNT FOR THE FACT WE HAVE A RELATIVELY DEEP (2-8+") SNOWPACK
ACROSS THE REGION. THE FACT THE SNOW PACK IS ALSO FORECAST TO
STILL HAVE A TEMP IN THE HIGH 10S TO LOW 20S THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ALSO DOES NOT CONCEPTUALLY SEEM CONDUCIVE TO TEMPS THIS WARM BUT
NONETHELESS A WARM UP TO AT LEAST NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING SEEMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS WEEK. WARMER TEMPS IN THE
20S TO 30S STICK AROUND BEYOND THURSDAY WITH WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUING TO PUMP A WARMER AIRMASS OUR WAY.
NORMAL HIGHS THE FIRST HALF OF JANUARY FOR THE FORECAST AREA ARE
STILL IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S SO THIS COULD CERTAINLY BE
CONSIDERED ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
ALL SITES VFR AS THE CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND EVEN KDVL WHICH IS SEEING
SOME CLOUDS HAS BEEN ABOVE 10000 FT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD IN THE EARLY MORNING AT THE ND AIRPORTS AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL ND. RECOVERY TO VFR FOR
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY, THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD GO BACK DOWN TO
MVFR OR EVEN IFR AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL STEADY OUT OF THE
SOUTH, THEN WEST BY TOMORROW EVENING, BUT REMAINING BELOW 10
KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JR
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...JR
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