626
FXUS63 KFGF 192340
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
640 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE FOR DENSE FOG DURING THE
EVENING INTO MORNING HOURS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND DURATION OF FOG IS LOW.
- A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND BRINGS A 20% CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINTER IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS
STRONG UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL DIG DOWN OUT OF CANADA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, AND A FEW OF THE CAMS SUCH AS THE HRRR AND RAP BRING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
REACHING THE GROUND IN OUR NORTH, BUT IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL AT
THIS POINT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIGS DOWN FROM MANITOBA AND
ONTARIO INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, WHICH
SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME
MIXED PRECIPITATION COMING ALONG WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD
BRING ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS FOR THE WEEKEND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
RETURNS FOR THE STARTS OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH ANOTHER WEAK
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS MAKE
FLOW MORE ZONAL AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT PREDICTABILITY STILL LOW AT THIS
POINT.
..FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AREA OF STRATUS AND 1 TO 2 MILES OF FOG CONTINUES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THINK THIS AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN MOVES SOUTHEAST AND WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND IT. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTER FOLLOWS
QUICKLY BEHIND IT, SO WINDS WILL AGAIN GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH PLENTY OF MELTING, FOG WILL AGAIN BE
A CONCERN. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DON'T HAVE ANY CONSENSUS ON
WHERE FOG DEVELOPS, AND ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HAVE A FAIRLY
BROAD AREA OF 50 TO 70 PERCENT. PREVIOUS SHIFT HAD ENTIRE AREA
UNDER PATCHY FOG, AND SEE LITTLE REASON TO CHANGE THAT AT THIS
POINT. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TO WATCH FOR ANY DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT.
..MIXED PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND
WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING DOWN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND, AND
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS, OR EVEN A BIT OF
FREEZING RAIN OR SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS HAVE A MIX AT HCO, BUT AMOUNTS LOOK VERY LIGHT AT THIS
POINT. HREF PROBABILITIES OF OVER A HUNDREDTH OF FREEZING RAIN
ARE ONLY 30 TO 40 PERCENT IN A SMALL AREA OF NORTHEASTERN ND,
AND NBM PROBS ARE EVEN LOWER. THERE ISN'T A STRONG SIGNAL FROM
THE ECMWF EHI FOR A LOT OF PRECIPITATION, AND THE PROBABILISTIC
WSSI HAS AROUND 20 PERCENT IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. AT THIS
TIME, THINK THAT ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS ARE NOT TERRIBLY LIKELY,
BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. WILL KEEP THE 20 PERCENT
GOING AND MENTION IN THE FORECAST, BUT NO STRONGER MESSAGING.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU MAR 19 2026
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD THERE ARE LINGERING POCKETS OF FOR IN
THE FAR NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY, HOWEVER THE GENERAL TREND
HAS BEEN FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WITH
INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A LLJ BUILDS EAST ALONG WITH A
MID LEVEL WAVE IS LIKELY,Y PRODUCING SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
(30-35KT) THROUGH MID EVENING, BEFORE THE MAIN FRONT BRINGS
WEST THEN NORTHWEST WINDS. WINDS EVENTUALLY DECREASE ONE AGAIN
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
DUE TO AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT SNOW MELT, THE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT POCKETS OF FOG AND A STRONGER
SIGNAL FOR STRATUS (POST FRONTAL) TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION OF VLIFR CONDITIONS REMAINS LOW. THERE
IS A BIT MORE CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE SHOWING FOR IFR OR LIFR
VIS/CEILINGS IN NORTHWEST MN TOWARDS KTVF WITH GFK ON THE EDGE
OF THIS REGION AFTER 08Z THROUGH 15Z. CONSIDERING THE LOWER
PREDICTABILITY OF THIS PATTERN AND THE HISTORY OF GUIDANCE
STRUGGLING WITH LOCATION/COVERAGE/TIMING, WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS WITH A GREATER FOCUS ON PERSISTENCE/NEAR TERM
SATELLITE/OB TRENDS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR
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