398
FXUS63 KFGF 232330
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY, FOLLOWED BY NEAR
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. MAIN HAZARD WOULD BE LIGHTNING.
- GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH IN DEVILS LAKE BASIN SATURDAY MORNING.
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..SYNOPSIS
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS 30-40 MPH WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE SOME AFTER SUNSET. HOWEVER, WINDS DO STAY
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT, BUT NOT AS STRONG AS THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES ALSO STAY QUITE MILD IN THE UPPER 50S INTO THE 60S
OVERNIGHT, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS.
THIS IS ALSO DRIVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, WITH RELATIVELY HIGHEST
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
INTO NORTHWEST MN. VERY LITTLE RAIN AMOUNTS WILL RESULT FROM
THIS, WITH THOSE THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS SEEING AT MOST HALF AN
INCH.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS, IT PROPAGATES INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL CANADA, BRINGING WITH IT A SWEEPING COLD FRONT STILL EXPECTED
TO MOVE WEST TO EAST LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SHIFTING AND INCREASING WINDS
OUT OF THE WEST. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR WINDS SUSTAINED NEAR 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN OF NORTHEAST ND SATURDAY MORNING.
SIMILARLY STRENGTHED WINDS MAY ALSO BLEED INTO THE FAR WESTERN
EDGE OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE STARTING EARLY AFTERNOON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL FOLLOW A NON-DIURNAL CURVE, WITH
DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING PREDAWN HOURS
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL BE EITHER
STEADY OR FALLING.
BY SATURDAY EVENING, TEMPERATURES TURN SEASONABLE WITH FREEZING
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED AREA WIDE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING,
AS WELL AS DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK, PERHAPS THEREAFTER AS WELL.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR A HYBRID-TYPE,
PROGRESSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST NEXT WEEK AROUND EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN MORE REFINED DETAILS DUE TO
CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT IN MODELED GUIDANCE REGARDING WHETHER OR
NOT SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL SPREAD INTO OUR REGION.
AT THIS TIME, LIGHT SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY, BUT CANNOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT SHOULD FORCING FOR ASCENT MOVE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WIND SHIFTS, GUSTS, AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS THIS TAF PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING ARE IN THE
10-20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KNOTS. WINDS ALOFT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, WITH SURFACE FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWEST, THEN WEST.
THIS WILL KEEP LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, WHEN THE WIND SHIFT IS COMPLETE. LOOK FOR AN
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS SATURDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS FOR KDVL AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AT KGFK, KTVF, AND KFAR. WIND
GUSTS WILL SLOWLY TAPER OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR NDZ006-007-
014-015-024-026-054.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...LYNCH
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