743
FXUS63 KFGF 160538
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1138 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY ON TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. THE HIGHEST GUSTS WILL
BE IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN.
- A STRONG WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY, BRINGING A HIGH CHANCE OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES MAY TRACK ALONG THE US/CANADA
BORDER TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LLJ AND WAA AXIS. THE BETTER RETURNS ON
RADAR IN MANITOBA LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH, BUT SOME LIGHTER RETURNS
ALIGN WITH WHERE THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL IN SOME CAMS MAINLY
TOWARDS OUR NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
MADE TO REFLECT THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 657 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
ARE IN PLACE (ALONG AND EAST OF THE RRV) WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS SHOULDN'T PERSIST AS THE GRADIENT IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN ND AND WAA/MIXING WILL RESULT IN NON
STANDARD DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT (RISING TEMPERATURES),
WITH LOCATIONS IN OUR WEST LIKELY RISE ABOVE FREEZING AFTER
MIDNIGHT (THIS AIR MASS IN ALREADY REFLECTED IN OBS OVER
WESTERN ND). NEAR TERM ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO SKY COVER/TEMP
TRENDS OTHERWISE THE GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
..SYNOPSIS
A FLATTENING RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL TRANSITION TO
ZONAL FLOW MIDWEEK. A STRONG PACIFIC JET WILL DRIVE MULTIPLE SYSTEMS
ALONG A PERSISTENT BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN
ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THE STRONGEST SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING OVER AT LEAST PORTIONS
OF THE FA, HOWEVER THE LONGEVITY/EXACT LOCATION OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ANOTHER WAVE PASSES THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY, WHICH WILL AGAIN BRING SNOW/BLOWING SNOW TO PORTIONS OF
THE REGION. ON ITS BACKSIDE, COLDER AIR WILL SETTLE IN FOR THE
WEEKEND, LIKELY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..TUESDAY WINDS
A CLIPPER TRACKING OVER THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL LUG A
SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT INTO VERY EARLY
TUESDAY. AS THE LOW PROPAGATES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST, ITS
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SOUNDINGS SHOW THE MIXED
LAYER WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW, BUT STILL DEEP ENOUGH TO TAP INTO
45+ KNOTS AT TIMES TO MIX DOWN, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IF WE MANAGE TO MIX A LITTLE HIGHER, GUSTS
WOULD BECOME MORE CONCERNING, WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING UP TO 55
KNOTS AVAILABLE TO MIX DOWN. HREF GIVES A 60% CHANCE IN THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN THAT SURFACE GUSTS MEET OR EXCEED 58 MPH
(WHICH IS HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA). LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A
LITTLE DEEPER MIXED LAYER THEN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS, SO FUTURE
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY. LUCKILY, MOST OF THE
SNOW SHOULD CRUST OVER AHEAD OF THE WINDS, REDUCING WINTER
RELATED IMPACTS, BUT POCKETS OF DRIFTING SNOW COULD LEAD TO A
FEW SLICK SPOTS.
..BLIZZARD POTENTIAL THURSDAY
A HYBRID SYSTEM DRAGGING PACIFIC MOISTURE EASTWARD, ALONG WITH SOME
INFLUENCE OF GULF MOISTURE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY, A CLEARER
PICTURE IS COMING INTO FOCUS. FIRST, THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD, HIGH WINDS DUE TO A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ON IT'S
BACKSIDE. EFI HAS NEARLY THE ENTIRE FA FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY
WEST IN VALUES OF 0.9 OR GREATER (A GUIDE FOR WARNING LEVEL
WINDS), WITH A SHIFT OF TAILS. WINDS AT 925 MB ARE SHOWN TO BE
IN THE 60 TO 75 KNOT RANGE, DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU USE
FROM THE 12Z TO 21Z THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
BRING SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DURING ANY PERIODS OF
FALLING SNOW. THE SECOND PIECE OF THE PUZZLE IS THE SNOW
FORECAST. A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLES KEEP THE HEAVIEST SNOW JUST
NORTH OF OR NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER, WITH OUR FA RECEIVING UP
TO AN INCH. MEANWHILE, OTHER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW HIGHER
SNOWFALL TOTALS (2-4 INCHES) FALLING ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2 OR SO. THE DIFFERENCES IN SNOWFALL TOTALS IS TIED TO THE TRACK
OF THE LOW, AS SOME MEMBERS ARE FURTHER SOUTH THEN OTHERS.
WHILE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK WOULD RESULT IN LESS SNOW, IT WOULD
BRING HIGHER WINDS, AND WHILE A FURTHER SOUTH TRACK WOULD BRING MORE
SNOW TO BLOW AROUND, WINDS WOULD BE EVER SO SLIGHTLY LOWER. BOTH
SCENARIOS STILL BRING A PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH
FALLING SNOW OVER A LARGE SWATH OF THE FA DURING THE THURSDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. THEREFORE, THE DIFFERENCE IN REAL WORLD
IMPACTS OF WHICH TRACK IT TAKES WILL LIKELY BE LOW. WHILE THERE
IS A HIGH CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE FA
THURSDAY MORNING, THE EXACT AREA AND DURATION REMAINS MORE
UNCERTAIN. FOR EXAMPLE, IF SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW FALLS (2+ INCHES),
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MAINTAINED LONGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS WINDS DO NOT LOOK TO DECREASE ALL THAT RAPIDLY. IF
SNOW FALLS FURTHER SOUTH THEN FORECAST, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THEN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THEREFORE,
WHILE UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS, WE DO KNOW THAT FOR AT LEAST
PORTIONS OF OUR FA THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING HIGH IMPACTS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST MON DEC 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN, WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS TO ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING (POSSIBLY LINGERING IN
NORTHWEST MN LONGER). WINDS ARE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT TUESDAY. GUSTS 35-40KT
WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY, WITH A
CHANCE FOR GUSTS HIGHER THAN 40KT IN THE KDVL AREA. A STRONG LLJ
(45-65KT) IS BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR APPEARS LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ008-016-027-
029-030-038-039-049-052-053.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-007-014-
015-024-026-028-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027>029.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...DJR
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