362
FXUS63 KFGF 030444
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE ENTERING
NORTHWESTERN ND AND ANOTHER, STRONGER WAVE FURTHER UPSTREAM
OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THAT STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT
INTO THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY, PUSHING A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE
GREAT LAKES, LEAVING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND. WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SOME WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ARE NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION, BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN SEEMS TO BE DRYING OUT AS WE
HEAD INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE PRETTY AMPLIFIED WITH UPPER RIDGING SETTING UP OVER
OR JUST WEST OF THE PLAINS, BUT OVERALL ECMWF EFI SHOWS
TEMPERATURE SIGNALS JUST SLIGHTLY ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
..LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT/TOMORROW THEN DRY AND SOMEWHAT WARMER
MOST OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS BRING TWO ROUNDS OF LIGHT
RAIN, THE FIRST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE, AND THE SECOND ROUND WITH
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. REGIONAL RADAR
AND SURFACE OBS SHOW SOME OF THE CAMS ARE ALREADY OVERDOING THE
FIRST ROUND, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES AT
BEST. BETTER CHANCES FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW. PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION ARE HIGH ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200, AND THERE
IS EVEN SOME 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES OF SEEING MORE THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH IN NORTHWESTERN MN. PROBABILITIES FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN DROP OFF QUITE A BIT AFTER TOMORROW. THERE IS
OVER 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 36 DEGREES OR LESS IN PORTIONS OF
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL AS OUR COLD SPOTS MONDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, WARMING TREND AFTER THAT WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES. THERE IS EVEN SOME LOW (20
PERCENT) CHANCES FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ND TO SEE 80 DEGREES,
ALTHOUGH THAT LOOKS LIKE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD, EVEN
AS CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES OVERNIGHT, RAIN SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP,
PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, COVERAGE OF THESE
SHOWERS SEEMS FAIRLY SPOTTY, AND MODEL GUIDANCE VARIES FROM RUN
TO RUN ON WHEN RAIN MAY OCCUR. THEREFORE, NO -RA MENTION WAS PUT
IN THIS SET OF TAFS, BUT FUTURE SETS MAY SEE AN ADDITION AS
PREDICTABILITY INCREASES, ESPECIALLY AT KBJI. CURRENT
PROBABILITIES FOR -RA AT ANY ONE TAF SITE ARE UNDER 20 PERCENT
AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THEREAFTER, A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS STARTING AT KDVL SATURDAY MORNING, THEN
AREA WIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 20
KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS OF SATURDAY. SUNSET
SATURDAY SHOULD BRING AN END TO GUSTS, BUT SUSTAINED VALUES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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