478
FXUS63 KFGF 130909
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
309 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST SAT DEC 13 2025
..SYNOPSIS
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING MORE ARCTIC AIR OVER THE REGION
TODAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND
EAST TONIGHT, BUT THE COLD DOME WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE.
UPPER RIDGING STARTS BUILDING INTO THE ROCKIES TOMORROW, BUT THE
SOUTH WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WON'T HAVE AN IMPACT UNTIL
FAIRLY LATE IN THE DAY. CHANGE REALLY KICKS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND SURFACE LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA BRINGS WESTERLY WIND BEHIND IT. EXACT
HIGHS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH STRATUS AND FOG AS
WARM AIR COMES OVER THE SNOW PACK, BUT ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES
OF GETTING ABOVE 32 DEGREES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE 90 TO 100
PERCENT. FLOW STARTS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH COMING THROUGH ON THURSDAY. THERE ARE
SOME HINTS IN THE ENSEMBLES OF A FAIRLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEM MOVING
QUICKLY THROUGH, BUT A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY NOT JUST IN THE TRACK
OF THE SYSTEM AND SNOW AMOUNTS, BUT HOW THE WARM TEMPERATURES ON
PREVIOUS DAYS WILL IMPACT HOW MUCH SNOW BLOWS. DOES LOOK LIKE WE
WILL GET ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
BEHIND THE SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH NOT AS BITTER AS CURRENT AIR MASS.
..EXTREME COLD THIS WEEKEND
WIND CHILLS CURRENTLY IN THE -40 TO -45 RANGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. SEE
LITTLE REASON TO MAKE CHANGES TO THE EXTREME COLD WARNING AT
THIS POINT. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA HAVE MORE CLOUD COVER
AND ARE ABOVE -30 IN SOME PLACES, BUT STILL PLENTY COLD AND WILL
SEE A CONTINUED DROP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HREF HAS HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF -30 OR LESS APPARENT TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. SHOULD SEE
SOME IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST FRI DEC 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BETWEEN
7-13 KNOTS. GUSTS MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS FOR THE MOST PART. A LOWER CLOUD DECK MAY
PUSH DOWN FROM CANADA AND IMPACT BJI, ALTHOUGH IT IS UNCLEAR IF
IT WILL GET AS FAR SOUTH AS BJI AND IF COVERAGE WILL BE LARGE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS. FOR THIS REASON, SCT025
WAS ADDED FOR BJI. ALL OTHER TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NDZ006>008-015-
016-026-027-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
NDZ006>008-015-016-026-027-054.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ014-024-
028>030-038-039-049-052-053.
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ001-004-005-
007>009-013>017-022>024.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
MNZ001-004-005-007>009-013>017-022>024.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ002-003-006-
027>032-040.
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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