358
FXUS63 KFGF 190310
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1010 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A 70
PERCENT OR HIGHER CHANCE OF 1 INCH OR MORE THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR THESE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1010 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
COVERAGE IS SCATTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS (ISOLATED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY), WITH MUCH LOWER
COVERAGE IN THE EAST, WHILE MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS HAVE
ROTATED UP OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
BETTER REFLECT NEAR TERM TRENDS, OTHERWISE I HELD OFF ON MORE
SUBSTANTIAL UPDATES WITH THE MID/UPPER LOW PROXIMITY SUPPORTING
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER NEAR OUR SOUTH ALONG WITH
THE SURFACE LOW AND A WARM FRONTAL ZONE HELPED ORGANIZED LOWER
LEVEL SHEAR/VORTICITY IN SOUTHEAST ND WHERE 2-6KM MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FUNNELS/1 WEAK TORNADO
REPORTED. HOWEVER WITH DECOUPLING ALREADY UNDERWAY THE THREAT
IS EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH SUNSET.
AREAS OF RAIN/SHOWERS CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE ALONG
A DEFORMATION ZONE TO THE NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE LULLS AT
TIMES IN SHOWER COVERAGE (WITH SPRINKLES/MIST IN THE LOWER
LEVELS) BUT EVENTUALLY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS SHOULD FILL
BACK IN OVERNIGHT AS THE PATTERN STUBBORNLY HOLDS. LOWER LEVEL
SATURATION INCREASING MAY ALSO LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN
FOG/MIST WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WEST OF THE RRV DUE TO THE
UPSLOPE FROM EASTERLY FLOW UP ALONG THE ESCARPMENT. ADJUSTMENTS
WERE MADE TO REFLECT NEAR TERM TRENDS, HOWEVER GENERAL COVERAGE
TRENDS MAY REMAIN DYNAMIC THROUGH THE NIGHT- FRIDAY. I HELD OFF
ON MORE SUBSTANTIAL ADJUSTMENTS OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
..SYNOPSIS
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES VERY SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. MOVEMENT OF
THE LOW IS INHIBITED BY A NARROW, BUT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED, H5 RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING EAST, ALBEIT VERY SLOWLY. AS SUCH, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY EVENING, WHEN THE
LOW WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DURING THIS TIME, A
FUNNEL OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE; HOWEVER, THERE IS NO EXPECTATION OF
STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BEST CHANCES FOR MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN WILL BE IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING, BUT WILL SHIFT INTO MINNESOTA HEADING INTO SATURDAY. MOST
OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH
PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. FROM MONDAY
ONWARD, RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS, BRINGING DRY
WEATHER AND WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2025
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD AS AREAS OF RAIN AND STRATUS LINGER, WITH A LOW CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST ND/WEST CENTRAL MN. VFR IS
NOT EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MOST
PERIODS MVFR AND AT LEAST A PERIOD OF IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS DEEPER SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS OCCURS.
THIS SATURATION MAY HELP LOWER CEILINGS AND DEVELOP FOG/MIST
ALONG WITH THE RAIN ALREADY ROTATING THROUGH THE REGION. THE
MOST ORGANIZED AREAS OF RAIN MAY BEGIN TO TRANSITION EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING FRIDAY (WEST TO EAST), BUT MVFR
CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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