152
FXUS63 KFGF 200250
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
950 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNING FOR ALL AREAS TONIGHT EXCEPT WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA (FROST ADVISORY) WITH TEMPERATURES WIDELY FALLING TO
THE LOW 30S AND UPPER 20S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
SOME GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO HINT AT FOG POTENTIAL ALONG THE
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE VALLEY TONIGHT ONCE WINDS GO CALM WITH
SOUNDINGS RANGING FROM A 3-5 DEGREE DEWPOINT SPREAD TO A FULL
ON LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND GROUND FOG. UNSURE WHETHER CLEAR
SKIES PREVAIL WITH THE CALM WINDS OR IF PATCHY GROUND FOG
DEVELOPS BUT EVEN WITH A WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD EXPECT
ISOLATED POCKETS AS LOW AS A 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD 1-2 MILE VIS FROM FERGUS FALLS NORTH TO HALLOCK AND
CROOKSTON. WOULD SAY THAT IS ABOUT A 30% CHANCE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL PULL
EAST INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS CURRENTLY WILL SHIFT INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE
ROCKIES TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, SO WESTERLY FLOW WILL
QUICKLY SHIFT BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR
WEST SPLITS INTO A NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCH, AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS VARY A BIT ON HOW EXACTLY THEY HANDLE IT AS IT MOVES
EAST. MOST SOLUTIONS DO PUSH THE TROUGH EAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS BY MEMORIAL DAY. DETAILS
SUCH AS PRECIPITATION TIMING AND PLACEMENT WITH THE TROUGH ARE
LOW CONFIDENCE, BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT ON BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BECOMING NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.
..FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST, AND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GOOD SETUP FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING,
AND DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE LOW 30S OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
SHOULD BE DOWN IN OUR AREA BY TONIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD DROP TO NEAR
OR BELOW THE FREEZING MARK IN MOST LOCATIONS, WITH A 60 TO 90
PERCENT CHANCE OF 32 OR LOWER FOR MUCH OF EASTERN ND INTO
NORTHWESTERN MN. PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN 32 ARE MUCH LOWER
FOR SOME REASON IN WEST CENTRAL MN FROM ELBOW LAKE UP TO DETROIT
LAKES, WITH CHANCES 20 PERCENT OR LESS.KEPT GRANT, OTTER TAIL,
AND WESTERN BECKER AS FROST ADVISORY BUT HAVE THE REST OF THE
CWA IN A FREEZE WARNING.
AVIATION /03Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT TUE MAY 19 2026
ALL SITES ARE VFR NOW WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND FLIPPING TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION FOR MOST. STILL LOOKING AT FOG
CHANCES BUT THERE IS STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP IT OUT OF
THE TAF AT TVF (TIMING WOULD REMAIN 08Z TO 13Z). A COUPLE
SHOWERS POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD IN DVL (<30%
CHANCE) WITH NO REAL CIG OR VIS IMPACTS. WINDS LIGHT FOR ALL AT
5-10KTS GUSTING TO 15KTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF DVL WHERE
SOUTHERLY GUSTS TO 25-30KTS ARE LIKELY FROM 18Z TO 04Z.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-028-029-032.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ027-030-
031-040.
UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...TT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page