583
FXUS63 KFGF 070416
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1116 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES APPROACHING 25%.
- AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BASED ON EXPECTED DEEPER VERTICAL
MIXING. FOR THIS REASON, AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, AS THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY FOR AREAS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH SUSTAINED,
AVOIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER HUDSON BAY, WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF IT FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES START TO PULL EAST. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
RISE A BIT TOMORROW, AND ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION, THE 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON AN UPWARD PATH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, INCREASING TO
NORTHWESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE. SUSTAINED WINDS AT PEAK AFTERNOON
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 15 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS MAY
BRIEFLY HIT THAT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH ANY CLOUD DECKS THAT DO
DEVELOP BEING GENERALLY ABOVE 5000 FT.
THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS AROUND BJI HOWEVER GIVEN
THE DRY CONDITIONS, IT APPEARS LIKE AVIATION IMPACTS WILL BE
LIMITED. NEAR THESE SHOWERS, CEILINGS MAY FALL TO 5000 FT AT THE
LOWEST.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW BENEATH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES, THEREBY CONTINUING VFR CONDITIONS AND LOW AVIATION
IMPACTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...PERROUX
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