591
FXUS63 KFGF 101206
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
706 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CONFIDENCE CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.
- SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH DAILY HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S
THIS WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
WILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP FOR -SHRA ALONG THE MANITOBA BORDER THIS
MORNING AS A FEW SMALL SHOWERS REMAIN. IN THE LAST 2 HOURS A
T-STORM DID DEVELOP WEST OF MINOT AND MOVING INTO THAT AREA, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW HOW LONG ITS LASTS AS IT MOVES EAST. BUT
WILL WAVE DEVILS LAKE AREA AND THEN ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES IN A LOW POP THRU 17Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY.
NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE KEY MESSAGES FROM THAT WAS ISSUED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD, WITH ONLY SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MID LEVEL SMOKE REMAINS
EVIDENT, WITH NEAR SURFACE SMOKE BECOMING POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS
CALM WINDS PREVAIL INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 60S
ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 AM CDT SUN AUG 9 2026
..SYNOPSIS
ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH TRANSIENT SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY. THE AXIS OF GREATEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO MAINLY STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA KEEPING ONLY
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT CANT
RULE OUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS THE
HUDSON BAY LOW BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK BY
THURSDAY, MONTANA/WESTERN ND RIDGING AMPLIFIES WITH DECENT
LATITUDINAL DIFFERENCES AMONG CLUSTER ANALYSIS AND DEGRADING
SYNOPTIC FLOW AGREEMENT OVERALL BY FRIDAY. SCENARIOS RANGE FROM
RIDING OVER THE AREA TO SW FLOW OR ZONAL/WNW FLOW FLOW ACROSS
THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WHILE THE CONFIDENCE
IN THE LONG TERM EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IS SHAKY THE CHANCE
FOR SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND STILL
APPEARS LOW EVEN WITH A SPREAD IN MODELS.
BEST CHANCE IN THE NEAR TERM FOR IMPACTS WILL BE VIA
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT
IS NOT TERRIBLY CONCERNING FROM A SEVERE PERSPECTIVE. MAYBE JUST
SOME HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
PER CLUSTER ANALYSIS CHANCES FOR GREATER THAN 0.10" ARE 40% OR
LESS FOR ANY GIVEN SPOT IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE FOR NEXT WEEKEND BUT THAT WILL
DEPEND ON THE HOW THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNFOLDS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 702 AM CDT MON AUG 10 2026
LIGHT WINDS TODAY, VARIABLE DIRECTION UNDER 10 KTS. THEY SHOULD
LEAN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR EAST BUT COULD BE ANY DIRECTION.
VFR SKY COVER TODAY WITH PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS.
ISOLATED SHOWER OR T-STORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF DEVILS
LAKE BASIN AND SE ND THRU THE PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN ANY PROB30 GROUP.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH/RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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