159
FXUS63 KFGF 262330
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIOD OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO STAY SOUTHEAST OF A VALLEY CITY TO RED LAKES LINE.
- A BRIEF MIX OR CHANGE TO WET SNOW OVERNIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE
AREA, BUT LIGHT PRECIPITATION RATES AND WARM GROUND SHOULD
INHIBIT ACCUMULATION.
- SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S THROUGH
MIDWEEK, TURNING SLIGHTLY WARMER BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A DEEP TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, WITH
SOUTHEAST FLOW BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. OUR AREA
IS STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN SW FLOW TO THE SOUTH. AFTER A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY,
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND POTENTIALLY BEYOND THE WEEKEND (SOME VARIANCE
REMAINS IN CLUSTERS BETWEEN RIDGING AND SW BY THIS WEEKEND). THE
GENERAL TREND SHOULD BE FOR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO WARM
SLIGHTLY FROM SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE 40S-LOWER 50S TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S. SW FLOW ALOFT
INHERENTLY BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE UPPER FLOW
IN THE PLAINS AND VARIANCE IN GUIDANCE RESOLVING ANY EMBEDDED
WAVES, CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION/IMPACTS IS LOW
BEYOND WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING LIKELY CHANCES FOR ANOTHER WETTING RAIN OVER
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE, A MOSTLY DRY PATTERN WITH
SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH FRIDAY.
..RAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
A STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE IS ORGANIZING INTO A HYBRID TYPE
SYSTEM WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING ACROSS OUR CWA SOUTH
TO NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. INITIALLY DRIER
AIR IN NORTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL DELAY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL, DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT 700MB DEFORMATION BANDING
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT. STRONGER AREAS
OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL TEND TO BE TRANSIENT MAKING COVERAGE OF
HIGHER TOTALS 0.5"+ LIMITED. BETTER COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL TEND
TO INITIALLY BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 200, THOUGH THE
TRACK OF THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY ALLOW RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL MN. MODERATE TO HIGH
PROBABILITIES (50-80%) FOR 0.25" OR MORE RAINFALL ARE SHOWN BY
NBM/HREF ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN, WITH A 30-50%
CHANCE IN SIMILAR AREAS FOR GREATER THAN 0.5" OF RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION RATES TONIGHT OVERALL DO NOT
SUPPORT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, JUST NOVELTY FLAKES MIXING
IN. IF SUFFICIENT BANDING AND DYNAMIC COOLING OCCURS, A LIGHT
DUSTING ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES CANNOT BE RULED OUT
(ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY).
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
CURRENTLY VFR SKIES WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH KFAR DROPPING TO
MVFR AND LIKELY LIFR BY 06Z TONIGHT. ALL OTHER SITES DROPPING TO
MVFR CIGS AFTER 06Z AND SETTLING IN IFR FOR THE DAY TOMORROW.
WHILE RAIN WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT P-TYPE OVERNIGHT A RAIN/SNOW
MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL SITES TOWARDS SUNRISE THOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IF ANY. WINDS OVERALL WEAK AT 5-10
KTS TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS TOMORROW FROM THE
E/SE. CIGS LOOK TO BEGIN LIFTING AFTER THE TAF PERIOD WITH
CLEARING SKIES BY 06Z TOMORROW NIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JZ
AVIATION...TT
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