084
FXUS63 KFGF 091208
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
708 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
WATER VAPOR AT 12Z IS SHOWING A WELL DEFINED VORT MAX MOVING
QUICKLY EAST HAVING MOVED OVER FARGO WHERE T-STORMS DID
DEVELOP. JUST NORTH OF FARGO A STRIP OF NEARLY 0.20-0.35 INCH OF
RAIN. THAT IS MOVING EAST QUICKLY AND LAST OF THE PRECIP WILL
EXIT OUR MN CWA BY 14Z. SCATTERED TO BROKEN ALTOCU BEHIND IT
THEN CLEARING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
SPC DAY 3 ISSUED AND UPDATED KEY MESSAGE. LOCATION OF WHERE THE
SEVERE RISK WILL BE ALL DETERMINES ON TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
MOVING EAST THRU THE AREA ALONG WITH THE AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THAT ADVECTS NORTHWARD. AT THE PRESENT TIME, THE LEVEL
2 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IS FROM
BEMIDJI TO FERGUS FALLS TO WHEATON MN AND POINTS EAST. MACHINE
LEARNING/AI FORECASTS DO TARGET THE THE LEVEL 2/5 SLIGHT RISK
AREA FOR LATER FRIDAY. THERE IS A NON ZERO RISK OF A TORNADO IN
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA, BUT UNCERTAINITY IF THAT IS OUR AREA OR
JUST EAST/SOUTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT TUE SEP 8 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A ROBUST MID/UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER MANITOBA, WITH
DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR CENTERED OVER OUR CWA ON WV IMAGERY AND 925
MB CAA IS SPREADING INTO OUR CWA FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST. AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AN MAY BRING A PERIOD OF SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES (WETTING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED). SHORTWAVE
RIDGING FOLLOWED BY WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS MID TO
LATE WEEK, WITH EVEN STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW FRIDAY. THIS BRINGS
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY AND A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND
UPPER LOWS ARE SHOWN TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION WITH FALLING
HEIGHTS ALOFT, WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MUCH MORE FALL-LIKE
TEMPERATURES RETURNING (HIGHS IN THE 60S). THERE IS A STRONG
SIGNAL FOR RAIN WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY
NIGHT AND NBM PROBABILITIES ALREADY SHOW 40-60% CHANCE FOR
GREATER THAN 0.5" RAINFALL DURING THAT PERIOD ACROSS OUR CWA
(HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY). THAT IS A
HOPEFUL SIGNAL FOR THOSE DESPERATE FOR A SOAKING RAIN IN THE
SOUTH, HOWEVER THERE IS STILL ENOUGH VARIANCE IN STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LOW BETWEEN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS AND MESOSCALE DETAILS
CREATING UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE MOST BENEFICIAL RAINFALL (1"+)
MAY ULTIMATELY FALL.
..WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY
A COMBINATION OF DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE
MIXED LAYER, SUBSIDENCE ALOFT, AND CLEARING/DEEPER MIXING HAVE
RESULTING IN MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST ND GUSTING 45 TO 50
MPH, WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS OVER THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. SOME
LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE ADVISORY ARE ALSO GUSTING TO 40 MPH AND
DUE TO THE DEPTH OF MIXING OCCURRING I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF A FEW GUSTS TO 45 MPH COULD OCCUR FARTHER SOUTH TOWARDS I-94
IN SOUTHEAST ND (CHANCES REMAINING HIGHER NORTH IN THE ADVISED
AREA). THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD WANE AS LOW LEVELS BEGIN TO
DECOUPLE TOWARDS SUNSET, AND THE EXPIRATION TIME OF 7PM STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE.
..SEVERE RISK FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD BRING HIGHER BL MOISTURE BACK TO THE
REGION, WHILE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVERSPREADS THE REGION
AS A TROUGH PASSES ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT. IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST
MODERATE CAPE VALUES AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
PLACE, THOUGH CAPPING MAY PLAY A ROLE IN DELAYED INITIATION
UNTIL THE FRONT AND BETTER SYNOPTIC ASCENT ARRIVE. TIMING OF THE
FRONT AND FORCING AND ANY CAPPING AHEAD OF THIS WILL ALL PLAY
ROLES IN DETERMINING COVERAGE AND ULTIMATELY IMPACTS. STRONG
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION, WITH HODOGRAPHS
IN THE WARM SECTOR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND VERY LARGE HAIL
OR TORNADOES (MESOSCALE DETAILS WILL ULTIMATELY PLAY A ROLE ON
HOW THIS PATTERN IS REALIZED). AI BASED SYSTEMS THAT HAVE SHOWN
GOOD SKILL THIS SEASON HIGHLIGHT HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA, ESPECIALLY OVER WEST CENTRAL MN
WHICH CONCEPTUALLY MAKES SENSE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT WED SEP 9 2026
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THRU FARGO AND TOWARD
BEMIDJI AT 12Z AND WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA SOON. PRECIPITATION
WITH THIS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BEFORE 14Z. IN ITS WAKE TODAY
IS PREDOMINATELY SCATTERED ALTOCU AND A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND
10-20 KTS GUSTS 20-25 KTS IN E ND/RRV. WINDS DIMINISH THIS
EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...TT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page