083
FXUS63 KFGF 162343
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
643 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER PATTERN THIS WEEK CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WITH PROGRESSIVE, WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING
THROUGH THE FLOW. THIS WILL OFFER OPPORTUNITIES FOR PERIODS OF
RAIN LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES
NEAR AVERAGE THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO OUR AREA FROM CANADA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRIVE TONIGHT'S FOG POTENTIAL WITHIN
EASTERN ND AND THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
..RAIN CHANCES AHEAD
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET IS BEING
OBSERVED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MIDWEST. THIS IS
ALLOWING A WEAK AND PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER ASCENT TO
MIGRATE WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
WHILE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND MOISTURE
RETURN MEAGER, A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS ACCOMPANYING
THIS FORCING/MOISTURE. THIS WILL KEEP THE POSSIBILITY FOR WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS, DESPITE THE CONVECTIVE BEHAVIOR.
ON FRIDAY, A RATHER ROBUST BANDED-RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH
STRONG FORCING FROM FRONTOGENESIS FED BY RICH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS MAJORITY OF THIS RAINFALL
(IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES) SOUTH OF OUR AREA, WITHIN EASTERN SD
INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORCING DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE
PROCESSES LIKE FGEN AND RIPE INSTABILITY, CONFIDENCE IN
LOCATION IS NOT GREAT. VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
LION'S SHARE OF THIS RAINFALL SOUTH OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER A
SMALL CLUSTER OF GUIDANCE DOES ALLOW FOCUS OF FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND MOISTURE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SD BORDER INTO WEST-CENTRAL
MN FRIDAY. THUS, THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR THIS BANDED HEAVY
RAINFALL TO EEK INTO LOCATIONS NEAR THE SD BORDER INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MN. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, AFOREMENTIONED LOCATIONS ARE
LIABLE TO SEE 1 INCH OF RAINFALL. EVEN WITH A FURTHER NORTH
EVOLUTION, THE CHANCE FOR 3 INCHES OR MORE IS VERY LOW.
INTO THIS WEEKEND - WHAT WAS ONCE LOOKING LIKE A MORE
CONSOLIDATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR
REGION LOOKS MORE DISORGANIZED AND WEAK. THUS, A LESSENING TREND
IS BEING NOTICED IN THE FORECAST REGARDING THE CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR
RAIN, JUST NOT NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
..FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM IN THE OCCURRENCE OF FOG SOMEWHERE WITHIN
EASTERN ND, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE GREATLY DIMINISHES WHERE THIS
OCCUR WITH MORE PRECISION. DRIVING THE FOG PRODUCTION IS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO ND FROM CANADA, BRINGING WITH IT GROUND-
SCRAPING LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN
MORE PRECISE LOCATIONS, WITH UNCERTAINTY MAINLY STEMMING FROM
QUESTIONS ON INFLUENCE OF MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2026
VFR CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, SO HAVE VCSH OR PREVAILING RAIN OVER ALL BUT KDVL. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COMING DOWN OUT OF CANADA WILL SHIFT WINDS
TO THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST BY THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. SOME MODELS HAVE VERY LOW CEILINGS AND FOG BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT ONLY ABOUT A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR MVFR OR
LOWER. HREF HAS SOME HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF LOW CEILINGS, BUT
MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. UPSTREAM OBS HAVE A FEW
SCATTERED MVFR OR IFR CLOUDS, BUT MAIN DECK IS VFR SO FAR. POINT
GUIDANCE HAS MOSTLY VFR CEILINGS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING, SO
WILL LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION FOR NOW AND TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE
06Z ISSUANCE. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE
TOMORROW MORNING SEEMS LIKELY IF ANY SITES DO GO DOWN IN
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...JR
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