647
FXUS63 KFGF 010116
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
716 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT, WITH
WIND CHILLS BELOW -30
- LIGHT SNOW UP TO 1 INCH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW COULD BRING
SUB-ADVISORY IMPACTS.
- ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH SUB-ADVISORY IMPACTS LIKELY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 716 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY AT SUNSET WHERE SKIES REMAINED
CLEAR AND WINDS ARE HOLDING UP IN THE 10-15 MPH RANGE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE RRV, RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS GENERALLY -25 TO -29
RANGE (JUST BELOW THE -30 ADVISORY THRESHOLD). MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ARE INCREASING NOW AND THIS MAY LEVEL OFF TEMPS OR EVEN RESULT
IN A SLIGHT INCREASE. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE PERSISTENT
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING IS WHERE THE CURRENT
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE, AND CONSIDERING WE ARE CLOSE IN THOSE
AREAS CURRENTLY THERE ISN'T A REASON TO ADJUST THE CURRENT
HAZARD. LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT WE'LL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON
THIS NEXT FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE THAT IS STILL PROGGED TO BRING
A PERIOD OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW TO OUR REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH MORE WEAK, FAST MOVING SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. TIMING BEST
LOOKS FOR ONE SUCH SHORTWAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, AND THE
NEXT COMING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE WILL COME OUT SUNDAY AND FLOW WILL START TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOR THE WEEKEND, WARMING UP JUST A BIT AS WE HEAD INTO
NEXT WEEK AND HEIGHTS RISE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
..COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IN NORTHWESTERN MN TONIGHT
CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT FROM THE NORTHERN CWA AND TEMPS AROUND
HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE ZERO MARK, WITH ENOUGH NORTHERLY WINDS
TO BRING WIND CHILLS DOWN LOWER THAN -20 IN SEVERAL SPOTS. WHILE
MORE CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT, AT
LEAST PART OF THIS EVENING WILL SEE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
BEFORE THEY ARRIVE. FAR NORTHWESTERN MN CLOSE TO THE RED RIVER
WILL DROP QUICKLY INTO THE -30S WIND CHILL AFTER SUNSET, THEN
THE COLDEST READINGS MOVE INTO THE LAKE OF THE WOODS REGION AS
CLOUDS START TO MOVE INTO THE WEST. WHILE WIND CHILLS ARE
SOMEWHAT BORDERLINE, GIVEN THE HOLIDAY WHEN MANY ARE OUT AND
ABOUT AT NIGHT, WILL GO AHEAD AN PUT OUT A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
..LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO NEW YEARS DAY
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WILL
QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST, WITH WINDS RETURNING TO THE SOUTH
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. WHILE FORCING WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK AND
FAST MOVING, SNOW RATIOS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH DUE TO THE COLD
TEMPERATURES, AND COULD SQUEEZE OUT A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH OR
SO BEFORE MOVING OFF. PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN AN INCH FROM
THE HREF ARE NOT GREAT, AROUND 10 PERCENT, BUT NBM IS AROUND 40
PERCENT CHANCE FOR MORE THAN AN INCH. DID BUMP UP SNOW AMOUNTS A
BIT, BUT THINK IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LOW AND WILL KEEP ANY WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY OUT FOR NOW.
..ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND
MORE FAST MOVING CLIPPERS WILL BRING SOME MORE LIGHT SNOW ON AN
OFF INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF 2026. THE FIRST WILL COME THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND THEN ANOTHER, STRONG SHORTWAVE ON
SUNDAY. WITH BOTH SYSTEMS PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE ARE
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT, AND CHANCES FOR ANYTHING OVER 3 INCHES ARE
NIL. LOOKS LIKE SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE SUB-ADVISORY, BUT STILL
WILL GET SLICK ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY WITH FALLING SNOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
THERE ARE A FEW AREAS OF STRATOCUMULUS AS A RESULT OF BLOWING
SNOW EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON THAT ARE CAUSING VERY
LOCALIZED/BRIEF IFR CEILINGS IN EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN WITH THE
ONLY CURRENT IMPACTS AT KFAR. THIS SHOULD CLEAR WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR, WITH VFR PREVAILING THROUGH 08Z. AFTER 08Z THE NEXT MID
LEVEL SYSTEM BRINGS MVFR CEILINGS (BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR) AND
LIGHT SNOW (VIS REDUCTIONS GENERALLY 1-6SM) THROUGH 18Z BEFORE
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. VFR IS UNLIKELY
TO PREVAIL UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING, THOUGH THERE COULD BE BREAKS
IN THE AFTERNOON OVER EASTERN ND BEHIND THE SYSTEM.
WINDS DECREASING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BECOME
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AROUND 5KT OR LESS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OUT OF CANADA, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THE BACK
TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY (REMAINING BELOW 10KT) AS SEVERAL
WEAK FRONTS PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ004>009.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJR
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