181
FXUS63 KFGF 141309
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
809 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE
PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS IS VERY LOW.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WATER VAPOR INDICATES SEVERAL UPPER WAVES ALONG OR JUST OFF THE
WESTERN CONUS COAST. ONE SUCH UPPER WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE
ROCKIES AND PROPAGATE THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS, ROUNDING THE
UPPER RIDGE INTO CANADA. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN THE UPPER
RIDGE WITH ZONAL AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR THIS LARGE SCALE
PATTERN TO EVOLVE GIVEN GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS/SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR OR
EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES THIS PERIOD
WILL BE LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MID-LATE WEEK SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
MOSTLY DRY AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
.SHOWERS/STORMS FRIDAY-SATURDAY
THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL BE WEST AND NORTH OF OUR REGION, BUT
STILL ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WITHIN THE 'WARM
SECTOR' OF THE SYSTEM. THAT SAID, MOST LIKELY SCENARIO INDICATES
UPRIGHT INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY WEAK TO NON-EXISTINT WHICH
WOULD LIMIT STORM STRENGTH/INTENSITY. OTHER SCENARIOS/ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DO BRING GREATER INSTABILITY TO THE REGION, BUT NOT MANY
OF THESE SCENARIOS EXISTS, AND THE ONES THAT DO ARE NOT THAT
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE THAN THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO.
..SEVERE POTENTIAL EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE PROPAGATES THROUGH CANADA GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION, AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
MULTIPLE SCENARIOS EXIST REGARDING HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE,
INCLUDING STRENGTH AND TIMING DIFFERENCES, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
DECIDE ON STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY - SEVERE POTENTIAL.
ML/AI GUIDANCE INDICATE A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS MONDAY-
TUESDAY, INDICATING THE LOWER PREDICTABILITY THAT STILL EXISTS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 807 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPS CEILINGS ELEVATED. AFTER 00Z, CHANCE FOR
RAIN INCREASES FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. INCLUDED
PROB30 GROUPS TO ANNOTATE FORECAST TIMEFRAME, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON WHETHER OR NOT SHOWERS IMPACT TAF
SITES. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY.
AFTER 12Z, MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST INTO WEST-CENTRAL MN,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KBJI.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TG
AVIATION...CJ
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