759
FXUS63 KFGF 111936
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
136 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTRY MIX TODAY COMING TO AN END LATER THIS EVENING.
- CLIPPER TRAIN INBOUND EARLY WEEK.
- MULTIPLE SCENARIOS EXIST WITH A LATE WEEK SYSTEM INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW AND CONCURRENT
STRONG WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
..SYNOPSIS
THERE WILL BE A FEW KEY FEATURES TO KEEP TRACK OF IN THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. FIRST A BUILDING OMEGA
BLOCK WITH A WESTERN RIDGE CENTERED IN CALIFORNIA AND EXTENDING
NORTH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF STEERING FLOW IN THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEK. AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS FROM AN 582DAM (TODAY) TO ~590DAM
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING, FLOW AT 500MB WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
NORTHERLY. IN THE NEAR TERM THIS WILL LEAD TO THERMAL RIDGING
ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND PLAINS WITH HIGHS AMID A
CHINOOK AIRMASS MONDAY AND TUESDAY VERY LIKELY TO REACH ABOVE
FREEZING WITH SOME PERHAPS NEARING 40 IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
A QUICK SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING WILL BRING SOME
RAIN AND WINTRY MIX WITH WINDS OVER 30 MPH LOOKING LIKLEY.
THURSDAY THEN LOOKS TO BRING A STRONGER SYSTEM FROM A LESS
TYPICAL DIRECTION... DUE NORTH. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A TRACK
THAT IS HARDER TO NAIL DOWN AT LONGER LEAD TIMES BUT MOST
SCENARIOS DO INDICATE ACCUMULATING SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS.
- TODAY
WINTRY MIX COMING AN END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THIS ONGOING
SYSTEM MOVES QUICKLY EAST. IMPACTS HAVE BEEN SPARSELY NOTED
ASIDE FROM A FEW RAIN DROPS ON AREA WEBCAMS. HOWEVER, SEEING
AREA RWIS SENSORS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S SUGGESTING A HIGH
POTENTIAL FOR ANY LIQUID QPF TO FREEZE ON CONTACT LEADING TO
SLICK TRAVEL. WILL LIKELY LET THE CURRENT ADVISORY DROP OFF AT
3PM AS SCHEDULED UNLESS IMPACTS ARE NOTED THAT WARRANT AN
EXTENSION. ASIDE FROM THE FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL THERE IS STILL
UP TO 1" OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST ANGLE THIS EVENING.
- MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY
ANOTHER QUICK HITTING CLIPPER WILL SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHERN
MANITOBA MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE WARM LOW LEVEL AIRMASS IN PLACE
VIA THERMAL RIDGING FAVORING RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN PRIOR TO
12Z AND LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY IN THE POST
FRONTAL AIRMASS WHERE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL ENOUGH ALOFT.
POTENTIALLY A BIGGER CONCERN THAN THE WINTRY MIX IN THE MORNING
WILL BE THE INCREASING WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AFTER 12-15Z WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30 MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH. DURING ANY
LINGER AFTERNOON SNOW SHOWERS IF TEMPS REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE
AND CLOSER TO FREEZING THIS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED BRIEF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS BUT SHOULD TEMPS STAY OVER 35 DEGREES
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS WOULD BE NEAR NON-EXISTENT SO REALLY TOEING
A FINE LINE. OVERALL WOULD PUT ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACT POTENTIAL
FROM THE COMBINATION OF THE WINTRY MIX AND BLOWING SNOW
POTENTIAL SOMEWHERE AROUND 30%.
- THURSDAY/FRIDAY
BY THURSDAY WE WILL BE LOOKING AT WHAT APPEARS TO BE A STRONGER THAN
AVERAGE CLIPPER. HOWEVER IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE COMPLICATED THAN
THAT. AS MULTIPLE WAVES INTERACT THIS WILL BE A LONGER DURATION
SYSTEM WITH FALLING PRECIP FROM THURSDAY MORNING TO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. INITIALLY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THURSDAY MORNING AMID LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL POSE A LESSER RISK TO BLOWING SNOW,
COMBINED WITH THE FACT WE ARE LIKELY TO GET ABOVE FREEZING AND CRUST
THE EXISTING SNOWPACK THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME EXPECT
FALLING SNOW WITH 1-2" FALLING DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY LIMIT
VISIBILITY WHILE FALLING BUT IS UNLIKELY TO REMAIN AIRBORNE DUE TO
THE WARM TEMPS. CONDITIONS THEN TURN WORSE FOR FRIDAY AS WINDS
INCREASE BEHIND THE THURSDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT WITH
STRONGER LOW LEVEL CAA LEADING TO SUSTAINED WINDS UPWARDS OF 30
MPH AND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 MPH. BETWEEN TEMPS FALLING OFF
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WINDS PICKING UP ON FRIDAY MORNING THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 1-2" (SUBJECT TO CHANGE FOR SURE)
WHICH AT THE MOMENT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
BLOWING SNOW AND IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY. THE LAST 12 HOURS OF THE
EVENT 6AM FRIDAY TO 6PM FRIDAY WILL HAVE EXISTING SNOW FROM THE
MORNING/LIGHT FALLING SNOW/AND STRONG WINDS.
ALL THIS TOGETHER LEADS TO A 50% CHANCE FOR WARNING TYPE IMPACTS
FROM BLOWING SNOW IF EVERYTHING LINES UP AS DESCRIBED ABOVE. NOW
THIS IS JUST ONE SCENARIO BUT IT DOES DETAIL WHAT COULD BE
CONSIDERED A HIGHER END ONE OUT OF THE GAMUT OF POSSIBILITIES. A LOW
END SCENARIO WOULD STILL LIKELY BRING ADVISORY TYPE SNOWFALL
AND BLOWING SNOW BUT WOULD RECOMMEND FOLLOWING THIS PERIOD IN
THE FORECAST OVER THE COMING DAYS AS CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS EVOLVES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST SUN JAN 11 2026
WINDS SHIFTING SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS REMAINING 15-20MPH AND GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH IN THE
NORTHERN RRV AFFECTING GFK AND TVF. FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT
GFK AND TVF BUT WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD IT TO THE TAF
FOR THOSE SITES. WINDS WILL THEN BE THE ONLY CONCERN AFTER 00Z
AS CEILINGS REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS SLOWING DROPPING THROUGH 12Z
AS THEY SLIDE BACK TO A MORE SW DIRECTION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MNZ005-008-013-014.
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...TT
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