282
FXUS63 KFGF 180351
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1051 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A WET PERIOD IS SETTING UP FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE FOCUS FOR THE HIGHEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AND ONGOING HARVEST WILL BE IMPACTED TO VARYING
DEGREES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
RADAR IS STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE SOUTH, WITH A HUNDREDTH
OF RAIN NOW REPORTED AT ELBOW LAKE. A HUNDREDTH IS NOT MUCH,
BUT THIS IS THE VERY BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BECOME A SOGGY FEW
DAYS FOR THIS FA. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR RAIN TO REALLY RAMP UP
IN AREAL COVERAGE IN OUR SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES OVER THE
NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE IS KEEPING THE HANDFUL OF RADAR RETURNS
IN OUR FAR SOUTH FROM REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER, THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO SATURATE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS, WITH RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE FAR SOUTH
AROUND MIDNIGHT. FROM THERE, IT WILL SLOWLY INCH NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT, REACHING ABOUT I94 BY SUNRISE. OUTSIDE OF SHORT TERM
ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH THIS IDEA IN THE GRIDS, THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
..SYNOPSIS
A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS TO OUR WEST WILL WOBBLE EAST AND ROTATE
AROUND EACH OTHER AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WORK
WEAK. THE SOUTHERNMOST UPPER CIRCULATION WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARDS TOWARDS THE ND/SD BORDER TOMORROW, REMAINING OVER
THE DAKOTAS THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER UPPER LOW STARTS TO MOVE INTO
THE DAKOTAS FOR MONDAY, AND THEN DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL MS
VALLEY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..RAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
ECMWF EFI HAS A FAIRLY ROBUST WET SIGNAL FOR THE DAKOTAS FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY, THEN AGAIN FOR MONDAY. INSTABILITY
LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK, ALTHOUGH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING SOME
CAPE INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR TOMORROW, WITH PROBABILITY
OF OVER 1000 J/KG AROUND 25 PERCENT. WITH NOT A LOT OF CAPE AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS, THE MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE
HEAVY RAINFALL. PROBABILITIES FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT ARE STILL HIGHEST IN SOUTHEASTERN ND, RANGING FROM
50 TO 80 PERCENT. CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TRAIL OFF
SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTHEAST, WITH LESS THAN HALF AN INCH
EXPECTED NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS. THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER
SEVERAL DAYS AND SHOULD NOT ALL COME AT ONCE, WITH THE 75TH
PERCENTILE FOR 6 HOURLY QPF NOT GETTING ABOVE HALF AN INCH. AT
THIS POINT, THINK RAIN SHOULD SOAK IN PRETTY WELL AND WILL NOT
MESSAGE MUCH MORE THAN WE ALREADY HAVE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GO DOWN HILL DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH VFR GIVING WAY TO MVFR, EVENTUALLY
TURNING TO IFR AT MULTIPLE SITES. EVEN IF IFR IS NOT PREVAILED
AT A SPECIFIC SITES TAF, POCKETS OF IFR WILL LIKELY BE ROAMING
AROUND THROUGHOUT THURSDAY, LEADING TO BRIEF INSTANCES OF LOWER
CEILINGS. AT THIS TIME, IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO ADD A TEMPO OR
PROB30 TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS OUTSIDE OF WHERE IFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE PASSING THROUGH. VISIBILITIES
WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE IN AREAS WHERE IT IS RAINING VS AREAS
WHERE IT IS NOT, AS A MIX OF DRIZZLE/MIST WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN
BETWEEN THE PERIODS OF RAIN. CEILINGS WILL LOWER AGAIN THURSDAY
NIGHT. HOW LOW THEY GO IS UNCERTAIN, BUT PLACES WHERE WE SEE
PERSISTENT IFR THURSDAY AFTERNOON (SUCH AS KDVL) COULD SEE LIFR
BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RAFFERTY
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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