084
FXUS63 KFGF 130947
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
447 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED, COULDN'T RULE
OUT ISOLATED STRONG TO LOW-END SEVERE STORM.
- THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
SHOWERS ALONG THE US HWY 2 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY MID MORNING. THERE COULD BE
SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF FOG IN NORTHWEST MN AND SOUTHEAST ND
EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST, SAVE
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SOUTHEAST ND AND/OR
WEST-CENTRAL MN. RAINFALL FROM POTENTIAL SHOWERS GENERALLY LESS
THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH. WITH A LACK OF LIGHTNING, NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A MORE ORGANIZED
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. AT
THIS TIME, THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IS VERY LOW, MAINLY DUE TO GENERAL LACK OF INSTABILITY
AND MEAGER SHEAR. HOWEVER,CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED STRONG TO
LOW-END SEVERE STORMS - THIS WOULD OCCUR IF WEAK INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT.
SIGNAL SHOWING UP FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS AROUND MONDAY /
TUESDAY AS ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST, THIS TIME WITH HIGHER WIND SHEAR AND LIKELY A WIDER
FOOTPRINT OF AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY. STILL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN MAGNITUDE, COVERAGE, AND TIMING, MAINLY STEMMING
FROM UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STORM
MODE/EVOLUTION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING, AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE EVIDENT, HOWEVER, SUPPORT FOR STRONG
STORMS REMAINS WEAK HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA, ALONG
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA ON TOP OF
THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE. MODEL PERFORMANCE OF THE TIMING
OF THESE SMALL FEATURES HAS BEEN POOR, BUT ONE SHORTWAVE COMING
UP THROUGH THE ROCKIES COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD UP A BIT
TOMORROW AND MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP OUR CWA DRY, BUT CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ANOTHER WEAK RIDGE RIDER. A BIT BETTER
SIGNAL FOR A SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, AND THE NBM HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR
PRECIPITATION OVER 0.10" DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-94. AFTER THAT SHORTWAVE MOVES BY AND HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY, THE WEST TO
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES. MINOR SHORTWAVES THAT COULD
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION IS NOT RESOLVABLE AT THIS POINT, BUT
TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY SEASONABLE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK.
..THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT
THE UPPER FORCING IS STILL WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST, BUT WITH
ML CAPE AROUND 2500 J/KG IN SOUTH CENTRAL ND SOME CONVECTIVE
TOWERS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO DEVELOP. MANY OF THE CAMS BRING
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING
WELL AFTER 00Z AS THUNDERSTORMS COME EAST OFF THE HIGH PLAINS.
BUT AS STATED ABOVE THE CAMS HAVE NOT BEEN DOING WELL LATELY.
ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 50 KTS, BUT THERE IS
ALSO SOME DISPLACEMENT FROM THE MAIN FORCING. HREF HAS THE BEST
PROBABILITIES OF STRONG UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES MOSTLY IN SD
WITH JUST SOME 10 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCES IN OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES. MACHINE LEARNING MODELS ALSO HAVE SEVERE CHANCES
AROUND 5 TO 15 PERCENT IN PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW STORMS DEVELOP, BUT FOR NOW
THE MARGINAL RISK FOR HAIL UP TO QUARTERS AND 60 MPH SEEMS
REASONABLE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 426 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
AT KDVL, KGFK, AND KTVF. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
BY 10Z, ALTHOUGH LIGHT SHOWERS COULD LINGER AS LATE AS 13Z.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST / NORTHEAST BETWEEN 5-10KT MID MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE IS LOW CHANCE FOR STRAY SHOWER AT KFAR BETWEEN 18Z-00Z
THIS AFTERNOON. CHANCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT THIS MENTION FROM
THE TAF.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ/LYNCH
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...CJ
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