872
FXUS63 KFGF 300051
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
651 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO ARE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
- LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A 70% CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL
IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
PERIODIC FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING BENEATH STRATUS BUT
THE MAIN WEATHER IMPACT FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLD WIND CHILLS
THAT WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DIVE ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS STRATUS DECK. WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 30-40 BELOW WITHIN THE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY AREA AND 20-30 BELOW OUTSIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 135 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
..SYNOPSIS
EXPANSIVE AND WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. OVER THE WESTERN HALF,
UPPER RIDGING IS DEVELOPING NICELY, HELPING BUILD A MILDER
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS. ON THE WESTERN FLANKS OF UPPER TROUGHING,
A LOBE OF VORTICITY IS TRAVERSING MB/WESTERN ON, EVENTUALLY
MIGRATING INTO INTO MN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS ALSO HOUSES
MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS, BRINGING WITH IT HAZARDOUSLY COLD
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT TO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS ALSO BRINGING
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO THE AREA TODAY.
AS THE LOBE OF VORTICITY DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH, UPPER RIDGING IN
THE WEST WILL SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE TOWARD OUR REGION STARTING
SATURDAY. THIS OCCURS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES TRAVERSES THE
DAKOTAS AND MN WEST TO EAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL
BRING LIGHT WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY WINDS, BOTH OF WHICH
WILL LIKELY IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SEE MORE DETAILS BELOW ON
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS. WITH THIS CLIPPER, TEMPERATURES FINALLY
TREND WARMER TOWARD AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE OVERALL TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR
AVERAGE TO PERHAPS ABOVE AVERAGE, INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THIS IS DRIVEN BY QUASI-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
UPPER RIDGING / QUASI-ZONAL FLOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
WILL ALSO ALLOW WAVES OF ENERGY AND PACIFIC-SOURCED MOISTURE TO
TRAVERSE THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
NEXT WEEK. EACH WAVE WILL BRING ITS OWN PERIOD FOR LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. WHILE THERE
IS CURRENTLY NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS FROM ANY POTENTIAL WAVE, THERE STILL MAY BE IMPACTS
THAT RESULT, MAINLY TO TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THIS IS PARTICULARLY
TRUE IF WE FLIRT WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AFTER EXITING
OUT OF THE RECENT STRETCH OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
..HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH THE LOBE OF VORTICITY SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION IN A
RATHER AMPLIFIED MANNER, THIS WILL HELP BUILD VERY STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR AREA AROUND 1047MB. THIS PLACES
IT IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF HOW ABNORMALLY STRONG A
SURFACE HIGH OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD BE. COUPLE THIS WITH THE
VERY DRY AND COLD MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS, THIS MAY STILL
PRESENT A SCENARIO WHERE TEMPERATURES REALLY DIP TOWARD THE
LOWEST PERCENTILES FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WITH THE HELP OF
VERY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL
FOR AIR TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER TWENTIES TO LOW THIRTIES
BELOW ZERO. RELATIVELY GREATEST CHANCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS IN
THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT THE HEART OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOT BUILD INTO OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY. THIS MEANS
THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME LINGERING BREEZE BETWEEN 5-10
MPH IN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA, INTERMIXED WITH LOCAL AREAS WHERE
WINDS ARE CALM. THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND A
LINGERING BREEZE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO HAZARDOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS
COMPRISED OF WIND CHILLS 30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO STARTING AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT LASTING THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY.
THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND AND
WEST-CENTRAL MN, WHICH MAY LIMIT HOW LOW WIND CHILLS VALUES GO
BY LIMITING HOW COLD AIR TEMPERATURES GET.
..TRAVEL IMPACTS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
WILL BRING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 20-35 MPH STARTING SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE AT LEAST DRIFTING SNOW,
POTENTIALLY AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME
HOW REDUCED VISIBILITY MAY BECOME SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE. IN THIS
PATTERN AND GIVEN DUE SOUTHERLY WINDS, AREAS LIKE THE DEVILS
LAKE BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY CAN SEE LOCALLY
HIGHER WINDS THAT LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS SHOULD THERE BE
ENOUGH BLOWABLE SNOW.
THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE CLIPPER WILL RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW WITHIN ITS
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME, OF WHICH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY IN ITS ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW UP TO 1-3 INCHES
OVER THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNAL FOR
FREEZING DRIZZLE TRAILING BEHIND SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
EXITING CLIPPER. THIS MAY AID IN DEPOSITING A LIGHT GLAZE OF
ICE, ALTHOUGH THE PROGRESSIVE MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE SHOULD LIMIT
RESIDENCE TIME FOR ICE ACCUMULATION.
AT THE SURFACE, AN ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
THE REGION BRINGING GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 MPH.
WITH A FRESHLY DEPOSITED 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW BLOW AROUND,
BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE SUNDAY. CURRENTLY FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS NOT EXCEEDING 30 MPH WOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, AND KEEP IMPACTS MORE IN THE
ADVISORY-LEVEL. THIS IS WITHOUT ANY FALLING SNOW, WHICH IS IN
QUESTION (SEE NEXT PARAGRAPH FOR MORE ON THIS).
WITHIN THE WEAK TO AT TIMES MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME
TRAILING THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE
ROLLS (HCRS) TO DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN IN THE SHALLOW
BOUNDARY LAYER AND CONVECTION ENSUES WITHIN A UNIDIRECTIONALLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. AT THIS TIME, OVERALL MOISTURE TO HELP
GENERATE SNOW WITHIN HCRS IS LACKING; HOWEVER, INJECTING BLOWING
SNOW INTO THESE CONVECTIVE ROLLS COULD HELP EITHER GENERATE
SNOW WITHIN THE ROLL FEATURES THEMSELVES, AND/OR HELP CONVERGE
BLOWING SNOW INTO THIN RIBBONS OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
POTENTIALLY HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM BLOWING SNOW. SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY
TO A QUARTER MILE IS POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO WITHIN THESE ROLL
FEATURES (AND RELATIVELY MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN OPEN COUNTRY).
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATING HCRS ON SUNDAY, THERE IS A
10% CHANCE FOR WARNING-LEVEL IMPACTS, LIKELY IN THE TYPICAL
AREAS THAT SEE HIGHEST WINDS ON A NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS LIKE THE
RED RIVER VALLEY.
THIS ASPECT ALSO LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN HOW LONG IMPACTS MAY
LINGER INTO SUNDAY (POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING).
THE COMBINATION OF THESE HAZARDS OVERALL EQUATES TO AROUND 70%
CHANCE FOR SEEING ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS, MAINLY TO TRAVEL
CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS DAYTIME SATURDAY LASTING INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 PM CST THU JAN 29 2026
THE BULK OF AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS
OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A BROAD SWATH OF MVFR CLOUD DECKS CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE SOUTHWARD. ACCOMPANYING THIS IS PERIODIC CEILING
RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR BASED ON COVERAGE AND LIGHT SNOW CAUSING
BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO 4-5SM. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS FOR ALL TAF SITES, EVENTUALLY BECOMING
VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT, ALTHOUGH THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF ANY
LINGERING POST FRONTAL STRATUS CAUSES ANY ISSUES.
SKIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW
BARRING ANY SMALL SCALE STRATUS FORMATION THAT DEVELOPS WITH A
LOW PREDICTABILITY HORIZON. SHOULD THIS ARISE, ONCE AGAIN MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY DUE TO SNOW ARE POSSIBLE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-026-027-029-030-039-053-054.
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...PERROUX
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