987
FXUS63 KFGF 221819
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
119 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
FORECAST GENERALLY REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A BIT MORE CU DEVELOPMENT THAN ANTICIPATED. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT STILL THINKING ENOUGH
SUN/HEATING WILL PUSH US INTO THE UPPER 70S/AROUND 80 DEGREE MARK
BY PEAK HEATING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1015 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
NOT MUCH FOR UPDATES NEEDED THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST FOR A
BEAUTIFUL DAY REMAINS ON TRACK. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE.
LASTLY, THERE IS A VERY FAINT AREA OF SMOKE TRACKING ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA DUE TO FIRES UP IN NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN. HOWEVER, EXPECT THIS TO STAY FAIRLY HIGH AND
LARGELY UNNOTICEABLE AT THE SURFACE BEFORE DRIFTING AWAY FROM THE
AREA AS THE SURFACE RIDGE TRACKS EASTWARD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE WITH QUIET WEATHER IN THE
SHORT TERM.
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THE
PERIOD, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH AND EAST.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW SOME
PATCHY FOG, WITH LANGDON AS WELL AS RUGBY AND HARVEY JUST OUTSIDE
THE CWA SEEING REDUCED VISIBILITY. HOWEVER, EXPECT FOG TO BE VERY
PATCHY AND SHALLOW, AND WEB CAMS DO NOT SHOW ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.
MAY INCLUDE A PATCHY FOG MENTION FOR A FEW HOURS IN OUR WESTERN
TIER, BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AND ANY FOG
WILL BURN OFF BY MID MORNING. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE A BIT
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, CLIMBING INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND BEGIN TO PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT
AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. MIXING WILL
KEEP LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT. WARMING TREND
CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME MIXING AND PLENTY OF SUN HELPING
US GET INTO THE 80S MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY MID WEEK WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE EAST OVER THE DAY TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL
PROMOTE A POLEWARD FLUX OF WARM, MOIST AIR INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
AND WILL PROMOTE HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL ALSO PROMOTE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A FAIRLY STRONG
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ORBIT AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE DEEPENING
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN ND LATE WEDNESDAY AND PROPAGATE
EASTWARD INTO THE DEVILS LAKE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
THOUGH THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THE MORE FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.
BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS, INCLUDING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
COMES ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
SEVERE CONVECTION, THOUGH SPECIFICS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THURSDAY'S SYSTEM WILL
BRING RELATIVELY CALMER WEATHER FOR THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
A FEW COLD-ADVECTION INDUCED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST MN
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, OTHERWISE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE
WARM SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
A RETURN TO A MORE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL PROMOTE
SHORTWAVES PROPAGATING INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATE WEEKEND. WHILE
MODEL SPREAD IS TOO HIGH AT THIS TIME TO KNOW ANY SPECIFICS, THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN GUIDANCE IS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT MON JUL 22 2019
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF CUMULUS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW POCKETS OF CEILINGS AROUND 4 KFT BUT DID NOT
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME AS THINGS ARE MORE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 5-6
KFT RANGE.
AFTER CLOUDS DIE OFF FOLLOWING SUNSET, CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LEE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...AM
AVIATION...LEE
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