280
FXUS63 KFGF 301027
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
527 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WILL IMPACT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA FOR THE COMMUTE THIS MORNING. LIGHT ICING CONFINED
TO ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS FORECAST TONIGHT. THIS
MAY BRING GLAZE OF ICE FROM LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, BRINGING A 30% CHANCE
OF ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS.
- A STRONGER SYSTEM COULD BRING ADDITIONAL IMPACTS LATE THIS
WEEK. THERE IS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 501 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2026
UPDATED KEY MESSAGES TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
THIS MORNING'S WINTRY MIX AND ASSOCIATED IMPACTS, IN ADDITION TO
NOTING ON TONIGHT'S POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS FROM
LIGHT ICING IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
AS OF 4 AM, WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN IS BEING
OBSERVED NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 200 CORRIDOR. THIS HAS BEEN WELL
ADVERTISED BY LATEST AVAILABLE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, WITH
FREEZING RAIN MAINLY CONFINED TO NEAR THE HIGHWAY 200 AND
HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDORS. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, MAINLY CONFINED TO GRASSY
SURFACES.
DESPITE AIR TEMPERATURES/WET-BULB TEMPERATURES BEING BELOW
FREEZING WITHIN THIS STRIPE OF FREEZING RAIN, OBSERVED ROAD
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S. THIS
WILL SERVE TO MITIGATE OVERALL IMPACT POTENTIAL FROM ICING ON
AREA ROADWAYS - THAT BEING SAID, ELEVATED SURFACES LIKE BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES ARE STILL LIABLE TO SEE ICING, THUS IMPACTING
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ENDS AROUND 8 AM THIS
MORNING. AREA OF LIGHT WINTRY MIX/SNOW MIGRATES NORTHWARD MID
TO LATE MORNING, CONFINED MAINLY TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WITH IMPACTS VERY MINIMAL DUE TO EXPECTED WARM TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT AMOUNTS.
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF WINTRY MIX
REACHING THE GROUND FOR LOCATIONS CLOSER TO NORTH- CENTRAL
MINNESOTA.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, STILL EXPECTING BETTER FORCING
FOR ASCENT/PRECIP TO PASS WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR AREA, WITH
LIGHT RAIN MORE PREVALENT OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND RED
RIVER VALLEY DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.
AS TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW FREEZING FROM NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS
SOUTH TOWARD BEMIDJI AND PARK RAPIDS AREA, FREEZING RAIN BECOMES
THE MORE FAVORED PRECIPITATION TYPE OFFERING A CHANCE FOR
IMPACTS TO TRAVEL CONDITIONS FROM GLAZE OF ICE.
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS IN THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDING, AGAIN
MAINLY DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR SURFACES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
AREAS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND INTO DEVILS LAKE BASIN
MAY ALSO SEE LIGHT ICING FROM WINTRY MIX TONIGHT - YET AGAIN A
LOW CONFIDENCE SCENARIO. WILL MAINTAIN A 30% CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS TONIGHT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF
NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE SLOWLY WORKING INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE
OVERNIGHT, WITH WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
THIS SURGE OF MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER SYSTEM THAT WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH WARMER TEMPS PREVAIL ON MONDAY AS WAA
CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 30S ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, TO THE LOW 60S IN
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SURGE IN TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED, HOWEVER, AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
TEMPERATURE PROFILES, MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, SUPPORT
RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA; HOWEVER, AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND
OF WINTRY MIX AND LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS AN 80 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR 1 INCH OF SNOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, WITH LOWER
CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. THE MAIN CONCERN, HOWEVER, WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE DUE TO WINTRY MIX AND FREEZING RAIN. THERE
IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS, MAINLY DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS FROM THE LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE.
HEADING INTO MID WEEK, HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH 30S AND 40S BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ENTER THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY, WHICH COULD BRING ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR WINTER IMPACTS. ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW, THAT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE
IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRACK, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE THE PTYPE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE ARE TWO MAIN
SCENARIOS THAT ARE SUPPORTED IN CLUSTER ANALYSIS, ONE WITH THE LOW
TRACKING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AND AN
ALTERNATE SCENARIO WHERE THE LOW TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE NORTHERN TRACK WOULD KEEP PTYPES
IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA MOSTLY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY WINTRY MIX. THE SOUTHERN TRACK, HOWEVER, BRINGS HEAVY SNOW
INTO THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD. BOTH SCENARIOS BRING MOISTURE, HOWEVER, THE SOUTHERN
SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE IMPACTFUL FROM A WINTER WEATHER
PERSPECTIVE. ADDITIONALLY, PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE HIGH ON
BOTH THE APPROACH AND DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW, BRINGING GUSTY
WINDS STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. THERE IS CURRENTLY A 40 PERCENT AGGREGATE CHANCE FOR
ADVISORY IMPACTS, WITH THE PROBS BEING LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN
TRACK AND MUCH HIGHER WITH A SOUTHERN TRACK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
AFTER 06Z LOW STRATUS (MVFR) OVERSPREADS PARTS OF NORTHEAST ND
INCLUDING KDVL, WHILE VFR IS MORE LIKLEY TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS NORTHEAST ND AND CLOSER
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NORTHWEST MN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ARE AT KDVL CURRENTLY IN THE
09-13Z PERIOD WITH LOWER CHANCES (30%) FOR FREEZING RAIN. KGFK
IS RIGHT ON THE LINE OF WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCE CHANCES AND
MVFR STRATUS TRACKS AND HAS A 30% FOR THOSE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR
MONDAY MORNING. ANOTHER WAVE MAY BRING RAIN CHANCES TO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR A WINTRY MIX
DURING THAT PERIOD IN NORTH CENTRAL MN AFTER THE CURRENT TAF
PERIOD.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 9-13KT ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.
WINDS THEN BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA JUST TO THE
NORTH AND A FRONTAL ZONE SITS OVER THE REGION BETWEEN KGFK AND
KFAR. WINDS EVENTUALLY SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
BEHIND A FRONT LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MVFR AND
IFR STRATUS BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD MUCH MORE OF THE REGION.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...CJ
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...DJR
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