654
FXUS63 KFGF 191810 AAD
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
110 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
TRIMMED BACK DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOME LOCATIONS BUT EXTENDED
THE TIMING FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN.
PERSISTENT FOG OVER THE JAMES VALLEY HAS SLOWLY BEEN ADVECTING
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FOG BEGINNING TO
SCATTER AND LIFT AS IT ADVECTS EAST TOWARD THE RED RIVER VALLEY
IN SOUTHEAST ND. WILL MAINTAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA, BUT EXPECT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS MIXING CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1057 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
WILL EXTEND DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST MN AND THE JAMES VALLEY AND DEVILS LAKE
BASIN IN EASTERN ND. AREA DOT WEBCAMS AND GOES 16 SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG PERSISTING IN THESE AREAS. THE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST VISIBILITY WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THESE AREAS AS BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
STRENGTHENS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
GOES 16 SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG
OVER PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN IN
EASTERN ND, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT FOG IS DECREASING IN COVERAGE, SO
REMOVED RICHLAND COUNTY FROM THE ADVISORY. WILL NEED TO CONSIDER
WHETHER TO EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
ND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
DENSE FOG HAS SPREAD AS FAR SOUTH AS COOPERSTOWN, BUT HAS YET TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST ND. MID LEVEL CLOUDS STILL TRANSITIONING
EAST AND LIGHT FOG STARTING TO DEVELOP IN AREAS OF CLEARING, SO
POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR DEVELOPMENT LOCALLY AS WELL AS DENSE
FOG TO THE NORTH TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD AS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SHOWING. LEAVING DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IS FOR NOW WITH SUN YET TO
RISE AND MIXING NOT LIKELY TILL LATER THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
NW FLOW ALOFT IS STILL IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA. ONE STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOW PASSING OVER ND (CURRENTLY ON SUBSIDENT
SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS), WHILE ANOTHER IS PROJECTED TO PASS EAST-
NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL BE LIMITED AND WITH FORCING EVEN FURTHER EAST
CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH THAT ANY THING WILL MEASURE TODAY/TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF NON-MEASURABLE PRECIP (SPRINKLES/FLURRIES) CAN'T BE
RULED OUT THOUGH, ESPECIALLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN.
EARLY THIS MORNING: DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS OVERSPREAD OUR
NORTHWEST CWA AS MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CLEARED. THIS TREND IS SHOWN
TO CONTINUE BY RAP/HRRR WITH DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF EASTERN ND AND POSSIBLY FAR NORTHWEST MN. GUIDANCE IS
LIMITING EXTEND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH BETTER
COVERAGE FURTHER WEST. CAVALIER IS ALREADY REPORTING DENSE FOG AND
THIS IS FURTHER EAST THAT GUIDANCE HAS IT, SO I-29 I WAS CONFIDENT
ENOUGH BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS TO ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH
16Z (11AM) FOR EASTERN ND COUNTIES IN OUR CWA. WILL MONITOR TRENDS
IF ANY COUNTIES IN MN NEED ADDED.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES: AIR MASS ALOFT IS A LITTLE COOLER AS A
RESULT OF PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH, BUT OVERALL WE ARE EXPECTING
SIMILAR CONDITIONS AS MONDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
MIDDLE 30S MOST LOCATIONS TO LOWER 40S (IN OUR FAR EAST). BREEZY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT (WNW WINDS 15
TO 25 MPH) AND LOW LEVELS WILL BE MORE MIXED THAN PREVIOUS FEW
NIGHTS. LOW TEMPERATURES MAY BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH VALUES IN THE
UPPER 20S/NEAR 30 OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER PREVAIL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS RIDGING
TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION. A GENERAL WARMING TREND IS IN THE
FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AND 20S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THERE REMAINS A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM THAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO THE REGION. CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP THE
WARMING TREND GOING INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE. CURRENTLY, THERE REMAINS A RELATIVELY LARGE DEGREE OF
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF, MAINLY REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW QUICKLY IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS H5 LOW TO OUR SOUTH, WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST IN RESPONSE TO SOMEWHAT PERSISTENT RIDGING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. CURRENTLY, WE ARE LOOKING AT A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON THAT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THEN BACK TO LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY MORNING. QPF
VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW AT THIS TIME, GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH.
FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND SYSTEM, WE ARE LOOKING AT A BRIEF RETURN TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
HEADING INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE MAR 19 2019
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING AS HIGH CLOUDS STREAM SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. VLIFR FOG PERSISTS IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ND FROM BAC
TO GWR. THIS MAY IMPACT VSBYS/CEILINGS AT TIMES AT FAR THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT ADVECTS EASTWARD AND SCATTERS OUT. ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW STRATUS PERSISTS JUST NORTH OF BJI, BUT LATEST SATELLITE
TRENDS INDICATE THAT IT WILL LIKELY NOT AFFECT BJI THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE INITIALLY SEEING VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING,
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR STRATUS AND FOG EAST AND
WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN THE 06Z-18Z PERIOD WEDNESDAY.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NDZ026-028-
029-038-039-049-052.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ004.
UPDATE...BP
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...LYNCH
AVIATION...BP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page