103
FXUS63 KFGF 010335
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
935 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING INTO SUNDAY IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND RED RIVER
VALLEY.
- NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN RED RIVER
VALLEY SUNDAY. THE CHANCE FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
IN OPEN COUNTRY IS 20%.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 933 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
WIDESPREAD QUARTER-MILE TO 1 MILE VISIBILITIES ARE ONGOING
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. HOWEVER,
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD, DIMINISHING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION, SO WIND GUSTS ARE IMPROVING
SLOWLY BUT SURELY. AS A RESULT, THE PROBABILITY FOR BLIZZARD
IMPACTS IS DIMINISHING THIS EVENING BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR
BLIZZARD IMPACTS TOMORROW REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME.
FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING, EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD WITH WIND GUSTS DIMINISHING SLOWLY. SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BUT SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY PATCHY TO AREAS OF BELOW 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 649 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION GENERALLY SIT BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1
MILE. HAVING SAID THAT, THERE IS THE CLASSIC EASTERN RED RIVER
VALLEY REGION THAT APPEARS TO HAVE A GREATER SPATIAL COVERAGE OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS (1/4 MILE OR LESS). IT IS DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE THE ACTUAL SPATIAL FREQUENCY OF THESE CONDITIONS,
HOWEVER OBSERVATION STATIONS INDICATE THAT WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOWFALL RATES AND THE BLOWING SNOW
TABLE CONFIRMS THIS (NEEDING 0.50 INCHES/HOUR TO GET WHITEOUT).
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND ACCUMULATION ALGORITHMS, THIS DOES
APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING FROM KITTSON COUNTY DOWN THROUGH POLK AND
NORMAN COUNTIES. WE WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY FOR A POTENTIAL
UPGRADE IN THIS AREA, HOWEVER GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF 0.50 INCH
PER HOUR RATES NOT LASTING MUCH LONGER, THERE IS ONLY A 40%
CHANCE FOR A BLIZZARD WARNING THERE RIGHT NOW. IF DURATION
APPEARS LIKE IT MAY BE LONGER, THE PROBABILITY WILL INCREASE
WITH IT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
..SYNOPSIS
CLIPPER SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SK/MB THROUGH
EASTERN ND INTO MN. THIS IS BRINGING SNOW, GUSTY WINDS, AND
BLOWING SNOW ACROSS OUR AREA TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT, INTO SUNDAY.
MORE DETAILS ON IMPACTS FROM THIS CAN BE FOUND BELOW.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS UPPER JET GENERALLY STAYS IN THE SAME AREA
BETWEEN UPPER RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER
TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS/EASTERN CAN. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ILLUSTRATES SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR UPPER/MID LEVEL WAVES AND
PACIFIC- SOURCED MOISTURE TO MOVE THROUGH THIS FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS, SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES, INTO UPPER
MIDWEST NEXT WEEK. EACH WAVE WILL BRING ITS OWN PERIOD FOR
LIGHT WINTER PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS,
AS SUCH, EACH WILL HAVE ITS POTENTIAL TO BRING WINTER IMPACTS,
MAINLY TO TRAVEL CONDITIONS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, DOES
NOT SHOW HIGH AGREEMENT IN HOW EACH OF THESE WAVES WILL TREK AND
EVOLVE THROUGH OUR REGION AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT.
THUS, CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS IS
LOW. THIS ALSO LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURE TRENDS NEXT
WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
WHILE THERE IS CURRENTLY NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM ANY POTENTIAL WAVE, THERE STILL MAY BE
IMPACTS THAT RESULT, MAINLY TO TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THIS IS
PARTICULARLY TRUE IF WE FLIRT WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AFTER EXITING OUT OF THE RECENT STRETCH OF VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES - RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCE FOR ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK.
..TRAVEL IMPACTS TODAY AND SUNDAY
EXPANDED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
AND SHEYENNE RIVER VALLEY DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOW,
BLOWING SNOW, AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 30-40 MPH. THIS IS
REDUCING VISIBILITY TO HALF A MILE OR LESS, OCCASIONALLY LESS
THAN QUARTER MILE (NAMELY IN THE NORTHERN DEVILS LAKE BASIN).
INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER
IS BRINGING GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 25-40 MPH THIS MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND AND RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS
IS COMBINING WITH FALLING SNOW CREATING SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITY OF HALF A MILE OR LESS - PARTICULARLY IN DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THESE LOCATIONS ARE LIABLE
TO EXPERIENCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MAJORITY OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION COMES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND MINNESOTA
BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES BETWEEN 6 PM AND 6 AM, BACKED BY THE PASSAGE
OF GREATEST VORTICITY ADVECTION ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
WAVE. THIS WILL BE IMPORTANT AS THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THERE IS SUFFICIENTLY AVAILABLE SNOW TO BLOW AROUND
OUTSIDE OF ACTIVELY FALLING SNOW. IN FACT, THERE IS BLOWING DUST
BEING REPORTED AND OBSERVED WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY TODAY.
A BRIEF LULL IN GUSTY WINDS IS ANTICIPATED WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS EASING SOME THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT,
SHIFTING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY, INCREASING TO AROUND 20-30 MPH.
WITH A FRESHLY DEPOSITED 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW BLOW AROUND, BLOWING
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO ENSUE SUNDAY. CURRENTLY FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS NOT EXCEEDING 30 MPH WOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, AND KEEP IMPACTS MORE IN THE
ADVISORY-LEVEL. THIS IS WITHOUT ANY ACTIVELY FALLING SNOW,
WHICH CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUESTION (SEE NEXT PARAGRAPH FOR MORE
ON THIS).
WITHIN THE WEAK TO AT TIMES MODERATE COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME
TRAILING THE COLD FRONT, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE
ROLLS (HCRS) TO DEVELOP AS LAPSE RATES ATTEMPT TO STEEPEN IN
THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER. JUST BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT, LAPSE
RATES MAY STRUGGLE TO STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY TO REALLY PROMOTE
CONVECTION, BUT STILL THINKING THERE WILL BE SOME SEMBLANCE OF
HCRS, PERHAPS AMID LIGHT FALLING SNOW IN BETWEEN WITH LINGERING
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND SATURATION ALOFT.
GETTING INTO THE DAYTIME SUNDAY, SATURATION ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO
EASE, ALLOWING SUNSHINE TO PEAK THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
THIS MAY PROMOTE REINVORGATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION, AND
AS SUCH THE HCR PROCESS. THIS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY.
AT THIS TIME, OVERALL MOISTURE TO HELP GENERATE SNOW
WITHIN HCRS IS LACKING; HOWEVER, INJECTING BLOWING SNOW INTO
THESE CONVECTIVE ROLLS COULD HELP EITHER GENERATE SNOW WITHIN
THE ROLL FEATURES THEMSELVES, AND/OR HELP CONVERGE BLOWING SNOW
INTO THIN RIBBONS OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR, WE CAN EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF POTENTIALLY HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH RESPECT TO REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM
BLOWING SNOW. SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY TO A QUARTER MILE
IS POSSIBLE IN THIS SCENARIO WITHIN THESE ROLL FEATURES (AND
RELATIVELY MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN OPEN COUNTRY).
ULTIMATELY, THE PRESENCE OF THESE FEATURES WOULD PROMOTE
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. ONE AREA THAT IS OF PARTICULAR INTEREST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY IS THE EASTERN RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS IS
WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOCALLY TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES. THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK COLD
AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASED FLOW ALOFT COULD HELP SUSTAIN WINDS
IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE. SHOULD THIS OCCUR, WITH BLOWABLE
SNOWPACK, AND HCRS LINGERING AROUND THE REGION, BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS MAY ENSUE IN OPEN COUNTRY - EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY WARMER IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO. EVEN IF MATURE HCRS
ARE NOT PRESENT, NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WOULD ENSUE (AND IS
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME).
WITH THE POTENTIAL THIS SCENARIO IN THE EASTERN RED RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR
WARNING- LEVEL IMPACTS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 514 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
INITIAL SNOWFALL AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK
ITS WAY EASTWARD THIS EVENING, REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS TO MVFR AND BRIEFLY IFR/LIFR. SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH WITH
WIND SHEAR THIS EVENING, BUT LOW CEILINGS WILL STICK AROUND
UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT, CHANGING WIND DIRECTION TO
NORTHWESTERLY FOR MOST TAF SITES BY MID-MORNING. BLOWING SNOW IS
LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THIS BUT TO WHAT DEGREE DEPENDS ON COVERAGE
OF SNOW SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING AND HOW MUCH BLOWABLE SNOW WE
HAVE. AT THIS TIME, THE PROBABILITY FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AND
PREDOMINANT VLIFR CONDITIONS IS 20% AND MAINLY AT GFK AND FAR.
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME AT THIS TIME IS PREDOMINANT MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES WITH OCCASIONAL REDUCTIONS TO LIFR/VLIFR DEPENDING
ON IF SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WIND INTENSITY DECREASES.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>005-
007-008-013>015-022-027-029-030.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...PERROUX
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