696
FXUS63 KFGF 032352
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
652 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
DAKOTA WITH NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF W/NW
MINNESOTA.
- RAIN TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHWEST MINNESOTA FROM HALLOCK TO THE
RED LAKES AND LAKE OF THE WOODS.
- COOLER TO START THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S BEFORE
60S AND 70S RETURN THURSDAY ONWARDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 159 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A SHORTWAVE WILL DIG AROUND HUDSON BAY TROUGHING THIS EVENING
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA WITH A COLD FRONT DROPPING
TEMPS FROM TODAYS 70S TO 40S AND 50S FOR MONDAY HIGHS. TUESDAY
WILL THE COLD DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S AS THE
CORE OF THE 700MB AIR MOVES OVERHEAD WITH TEMPS IN THE -16 TO
-18C RANGE (BASICALLY ARCTIC BY MAY STANDARDS). COULD SEE
SHOWERS LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL IF ANY. RIDING THEN STARTS TO
BUILD BACK IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S BY THUR/FRI AND EVEN
SOME 70S BY NEXT WEEKEND IN THE SOUTH. WITH THESE INCREASING
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN COME THE CHANCE FOR NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER BUT WITH A LACK OF SIGNAL FROM HDWI AND
ONGOING GREEN-UP FOR MOST WILL NOT FOCUS ON THAT TOO MUCH JUST
YET.
-CURRENT RED FLAG/SPS
EARLY DAY CONCERNS ABOUT A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH
WINDS BEING EFFICIENTLY TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE LEADING TO
MORE WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE BEING QUELLED. WINDS
EAST OF THE ND/MN STATE BORDER ARE REMAINING MANAGEABLE AT 10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS OCCASIONALLY OVER 20 MPH (RH DOES REMAIN AND
WIDELY 22-27%) SO SPS SEEMS TO BE REASONABLE. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS ND RH IS SIMILAR, THOUGH WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AT
15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. OVERALL THIS IS CURRENTLY
MARGINAL RFW CONDITIONS FOR ND BUT AS RH DROPS ANOTHER 3-5
POINTS TO NEAR 20% THIS AFTERNOON RFW WILL BECOME AN
INCREASINGLY CORRECT DECISION.
- RAIN TONIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT ROLLS SOUTH TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THOUGH THEY WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THE PRECEDING DEEPLY MIXED AND
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. DESPITE THIS DRY AIR HINDRANCE HI-RES
ENSEMBLES LIKE THE HREF AND RRFS BOTH SHOW HIGH PROBS FOR AREAS
FROM HALLOCK TO THE RED LAKES TO SEE > 0.10". MOST AREAS OUTSIDE
THIS WILL ONLY SEE A SHOWER OR TWO AND MAYBE A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS FROM THEM. OVERALL WHILE IT WILL BE A "WETTING RAIN"
IT WONT DO MUCH TO QUELL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATER IN THE
WEEK.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARISE
LATER THIS WEEK. PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO
CONTRIBUTE TO DOWNSLOPING AND DRY AIRMASSES OVER OUR REGION, SO
DAYS WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL BRING AN INCREASED RISK
FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS. THE MAIN QUESTION MARKS WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS WHICH DO APPEAR LIKELY TO MEET THRESHOLDS OF CONCERN
FOR FIRE LATE NEXT WEEK WITH FUEL STATUS ALSO REMAINING
CRITICAL. ERC PERCENTILES ARE STILL LARGELY HIGH THOUGH HRB IS
BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO GREEN-UP SO FIRE SPREAD MAY BECOME
INHIBITED. AT THIS TIME, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY APPEAR TO HAVE THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SUN MAY 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN. WESTERLY WINDS 15-25KT ARE
PERIODICALLY GUSTING 35KT+ PRIMARILY IN NORTHEAST ND. THE
STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME, WITH GUSTS REMAINING BELOW
30KT WHEN THEY FINALLY DECREASE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS
THE STRONGEST WINDS BACK OFF. STRONG GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT
SHOULD SUPPORT NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING MONDAY, WITH GUSTS ONCE AGAIN 30-35KT (LOW CHANCE FOR
GUSTS TO 40KT). HIGHEST WINDS WOULD BE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.
SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS (8-10KFT) MOVING OUT OF CANADA
ACROSS NORTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT MAY BRING BRIEF ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS AS THEY
PASS OTHERWISE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS VIRGA OR JUST VERY LIGHT
IN NATURE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...DJR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page