267
FXUS63 KFGF 292124
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
424 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR HEAT IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES IN
THE 90S AND 100S IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST INTO WEST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
- THERE IS A LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5 RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON, POTENTIALLY BRINGING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
..SYNOPSIS
DOMINANT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS THIS HAS BEEN THE FEATURE HOLDING HIGH
HEAT IMPACTING OUR REGION FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. THIS IS
DRIVING TODAY'S HEAT IMPACTS.
ADDITIONALLY, INCREASING OVERALL MOISTURE WITHIN THE RIDGE
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT IN WESTERN ND IS
BRINGING CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ND AND NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
TOMORROW, THE UPPER RIDGE'S CREST WEAKENS AS ONE OR MORE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE OUT OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA WEST TO EAST THURSDAY, SUPPLYING MEDIUM TO HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, BRINGING ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SMALL HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS HEAVY RAINFALL.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE RELATIVELY MILDER COMPARED TO
RECENT STRETCH OF HOT CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
AVERAGE BEHIND THURSDAY'S COLD FRONT AS WELL AS RELATIVELY LOWER
DEW POINTS.
THIS CHANGES COME SUNDAY AND MONDAY, HOWEVER, AS A SEASONALLY
STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
CANADA. THE STRONG FORCING AND KINEMATICS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS
PRESENTING LENDS CONFIDENCE TOWARD A RETURN OF HIGHER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INTO THE REGION. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR OUR
NEXT ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, WITH SOME AI/ML GUIDANCE
ALREADY HINTING AT THIS POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS TOO
MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO COMMENT ON FURTHER DETAILS.
..HEAT IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON
EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL OF
EASTERN ND AS WELL AS NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MN. THIS IS DUE
TO WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW 100S
AREA-WIDE. THIS IS A RESULT OF HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. ADDITIONALLY, WET BULB GLOBE
TEMPERATURES INTO THE "EXTREME" (I.E. LEVEL 5 OUT OF 5) CATEGORY
ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, OWING NOT ONLY
TO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY, BUT ALSO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS.
THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY FOR POTENTIAL HEAT IMPACTS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW, IN ADDITION TO HEAPING CLOUD
COVER.
..STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT SAGS INTO EASTERN ND AND THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AS EARLY AS MID MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERCOLATE AND MERGE WITH EACH OTHER GIVEN INCREASING FORCING FOR
ASCENT AS WELL AS OVERALL WEAK FLOW WITHIN THE CLOUD BARING
LAYER - THE EXCEPTION TO WEAK FLOW IS IN THE UPPER PORTIONS OF
THE CLOUD LAYER WHICH MAY HELP VENT STORMS AND PROVIDE SOME
HAIL GENERATION, ALTHOUGH NOT ANTICIPATING VERY LARGE HAIL WITH
THIS ACTIVITY (GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATING HAIL GREATER THAN 1
INCH).
WHILE OVERALL FLOW IS WEAK, HIGH LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL
DRIVE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTS TO 60 MPH, AND WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO OCCUR SHOULD OUTFLOW FROM CLUSTER/S OF STORMS
CONSOLIDATE.
CONVECTIVE RATES OF AT LEAST 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY
OVER MORE VULNERABLE LANDSCAPES LIKE URBAN AREAS AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. THIS IS DRIVEN BY RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTIONS OF THUNDERSTORMS AMID RICH MOISTURE AND HIGH INSTABILITY,
AND POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCE FOR
THIS TO OCCUR RESIDES IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY INTO
WEST-CENTRAL MN. WITH ONGOING VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS,
RURAL LANDSCAPES WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS VULNERABLE TO FLOODING
COMPARED TO URBAN LANDSCAPES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2026
WILDFIRE SMOKE IS WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION, ALTHOUGH
MAJORITY OF WHICH IS ALOFT. THERE IS STILL SOME SMOKE NEAR THE
SURFACE REDUCING VISIBILITY BETWEEN 4SM-6SM RANGE, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS PERHAPS AGAIN
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY.
OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BETWEEN
5KT-15KT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS IN NORTHEAST ND BETWEEN 00Z-12Z. AFTER 12Z, CHANCE
GRADUALLY INCREASE AREA-WIDE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
PEAKING BY 18Z. AT THIS TIME, DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT PROB30 GROUP
FOR THIS IF IT WAS BEYOND 12Z, MAINLY DUE TO EXTENT INTO THE
FUTURE. SUBSEQUENT TAFS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE -TSRA / VCTS FOR
TOMORROW.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027>032-040.
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ
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