687
FXUS63 KFGF 161954
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
154 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING HEAVY SNOW WILL IMPACT OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF WARNING IMPACTS ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 200.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND MELTED SNOWPACK BRINGS A LOW RISK
FOR FLOODING IMPACTS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..SYNOPSIS
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON INDICATES A BROAD SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WORKING ITS WAY EAST WITH A LINE
OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN BRIEFLY REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO BELOW A MILE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON BUT IMPACTS SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL AS A LACK OF
SATURATION CAUSES EVAPORATION OF ANY DROPS THAT ARE BEING
DETECTED BY THE RADAR.
THE MAIN STORY OF THE PERIOD WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER
STORM BEGINNING LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING AS DEEP PACIFIC MOISTURE WORKS ITS WAY UP FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA.
TEMPERATURES THEREAFTER WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON SNOWPACK THAT IS
DEVELOPED AS A RESULT OF THIS SYSTEM. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE,
THERE ARE NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR PRECIPITATION AFTER THIS MAIN
SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH BASED ON EFI.
..WINTER STORM
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE DEVELOPING WINTER STORM THAT
LOOKS TO IMPACT OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY EVENING, LASTING INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AT 19Z SHOWS THE
DEVELOPING JET OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND A FIRE HOSE OF
MOISTURE WORKING ITS WAY UP THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THIS MOISTURE SHOULD
START TO MAKE ITS WAY UP THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS OUR AREA.
LEADING RIDGING SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TYPES GENERALLY AS
RAIN THROUGH ALL OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY EVENING. INTENSIFYING ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE REGION
MAY BE ABLE TO FACILITATE FREEZING RAIN EARLY TUESDAY EVENING,
HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON POTENTIAL WET BULBING, SO WINTER IMPACTS
MAY ARISE PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE
EVENING, BUT EVENTUALLY 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW
FREEZING DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION. LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE THIS
LAYER ARE RATHER STEEP (6-7 K/KM), MEANING HEFTY RATES OF
PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED. IF SNOW CHANGES OVER AS THIS
DEVELOPS, THEN YOU CAN EXPECT TO SEE 1-2 INCH/HOUR SNOWFALL
RATES, OF WHICH HREF SHOWS A 60-90% CHANCE ALONG AND NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2 FOR DEVELOPING. WHILE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE UNLIKELY
THANKS TO LACK OF A CURRENT SNOWPACK AND GENERALLY LIMITED WIND
PRODUCTION, SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS.
THE WORST CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP ONCE EVERYONE BECOMES SNOW,
WHICH WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY MORNING, LIKELY IMPACTING THE MORNING
COMMUTE. WET, HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS SNOW
RATIOS WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 8-12 AND HAVE A VERY HIGH QPF.
EFI PAINTING A LARGE SWATH OF 0.80+ WITH MULTIPLE SHIFT OF TAILS
IS CERTAINLY EYE-OPENING FROM A POTENTIAL IMPACTS STANDPOINT. AS
SUCH, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS TO SEE 8+ INCHES OF SNOW
AND POTENTIALLY MORE EXTREME VALUES EXCEEDING A FOOT.
WHERE IS THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL GOING TO BE? WELL, SADLY
THERE IS A VERY HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS AND THERE IS
NO MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. HALF OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FEATURE A
SCENARIO WHERE THE AXIS OF SNOWFALL IS GENERALLY NORTH OF US
HIGHWAY 2 WHILE THE OTHER HALF OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING IT AS
FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 200. REGARDLESS, WHEREVER THE AXIS OF
HIGHEST SNOWFALL IS WILL SEE 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW, THEORETICALLY
MORE IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES CONFIRM
THIS LINE OF THINKING WITH 80-90% PROBABILITIES FOR 6 INCHES OF
SNOW ALREADY BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM HREF (WITH MORE SNOW
ONGOING).
SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF
THROUGH THURSDAY, HOWEVER A FEW EXTREME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO
DEPICT A POTENTIAL STALLED LOW SCENARIO, SO ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE WORST IMPACTS
SHOULD BE DONE BY THEN.
WITH THE PREVIOUS SNOWPACK ALL BUT MELTED AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING AN INCH ACROSS THE RED RIVER BASIN
EXPECTED, THERE IS THE LOW POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER WHERE CAMERAS INDICATE
MORE OPEN WATER. IN FACT, RED RIVER GAGES ARE SHOWING SOME RIVER
RISES OCCURRING AT HALSTAD AND HICKSON. MINOR FLOOD STAGE MAY
ARISE AT SOME LOCATIONS ONCE THIS SYSTEM IS SAID AND DONE, BUT
HEFS PROBABILITIES FOR THIS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 10%, SO IT IS A
LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AS FOG HAS ALL BUT DIMINISHED. GUIDANCE HAS PLACED
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WITHIN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER GIVEN A LACK OF A MEANINGFUL SOURCE AND NO
OBSERVATIONS ONGOING OF IT, IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF. FOG MAY
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE MUCH GREATER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS. IT'S MORE LIKELY WE SEE STRATUS,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW, HENCE WHY IT IS NOT IN THE
ROUTINE TAF. EVENTUALLY, ALL SITES BECOME MVFR/IFR JUST AFTER
THE TAF PERIOD ENDS AS WE GET A WINTER STORM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-054.
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR MNZ001-002-004>009-013>017-022>024.
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...PERROUX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page