002
FXUS63 KFGF 180429
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1129 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A GRADUAL WARM UP THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BY MID NEXT
WEEK IN THE 80S OTHERWISE A TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
..SYNOPSIS
AS OF THIS AFTERNOON, NORTHWEST TO ZONAL FLOW REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF CONUS, WHICH IS FORECASTED TO CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAVE OUR FA STUCK IN BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH A FEW WEAK WAVES PASSING THROUGH. THE MOST
NOTABLE OF THESE WAVES ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
FORCING, WHEN COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY RANGING UP TO 1000
J/KG, WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY,
MUCH AS WE ARE SEEING TODAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
INTO NEXT WEEK, RIDGING WILL BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED. THIS WILL
FINALLY LEAD TO A WARMING TREND MORE REMINISCENT OF MID TO LATE
JUNE WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. WHILE
WARMER, THIS IS STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE JUNE.
..SHOWERS AND THUNDER TODAY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AND WITH ABOUT 1000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE TO WORK WITH, MUCH OF THE REGION HAS SEEN AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THESE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS, COMING TO AN END AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. DUE TO THE
LIMITED INSTABILITY AND UNDER 20 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR,
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, THOSE WITH OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2026
VFR TONIGHT AS SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED WITH ONLY SOME
LOWER CLOUDS LINGERING NEAR KBJI AT SCT040. THINGS CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME SCT TO BKN CUMULUS TOMORROW
THAT BEGINS AROUND 040 BEFORE CLIMBING TO 050 AS MIXING DEEPENS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS AS
HIGHS A 20KTS. WINDS QUICKLY DECOUPLE AFTER 00Z WITH WINDS THEN
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...TT
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