871
FXUS63 KFGF 042054
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
254 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
SHORT TERM IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL, AND PRIMARILY RELATED TO LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER THROUGH ABOUT 6PM
TODAY AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT FLURRIES INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AXIS OF 925-850MB WAA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE
US/CANADA BORDER PRIMARILY FROM THE FAR NORTHERN RRV TOWARDS LAKE OF
THE WOODS, WITH REPORTS/WEB CAMS ONLY SHOWING A LIGHT DUSTING SO FAR
TODAY. STILL, THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF VIS 2 MILES OR LESS AT
TIMES, AND I WOULDN'T BE SHOCKED IF A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS HAD A TOTAL NEAR 1" WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. CURRENT CAMS DO
NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON THE CURRENT COVERAGE/TIMING (WOULD
ALREADY HAVE IT EAST OF OUR CWA). WHERE THE MAIN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
IS MOVING IN AND DRIER WEST-NORTHWEST BL FLOW IS SPREADING EAST THIS
IS HELPING END ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION (LINING UP WELL WITH
RADAR/OB TRENDS) AND THIS SHOULD MATCH THE IDEA OF MEASURABLE
CHANCES ENDING BY 6PM. AS THE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING WE SEE STRONG CAA AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR FLURRIES, AND THIS IS REFLECTED BY A VERY WEAK SIGNAL
FOR SPOTTY/LIGHT QPF WITH SOME GUIDANCE. I LEFT 20 POPS IN FOR
CONSISTENCY SAKE, CONSIDERING THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR A
BRIEF DUSTING.
AFTER RELATIVELY MILDER/ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY (CURRENTLY
ABOVE FREEZING IN OUR SOUTH WHERE THIS IS NO SNOW COVER), THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS BACK DOWN IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
MONDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
OVERVIEW...
THE MAIN OPPORTUNITY FOR IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL BE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING GOING INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND INTO MINNESOTA. THE PROBABILITIES ARE 50-75%
CHANCE OF UP TO AN INCH OF SNOW IN 24HOURS.
DISCUSSION...
TUESDAY, THE MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO TREND ON A BAND OF ENHANCED
WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF SNOW ALONG ITS PATH.
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE COMBINES AREAS OF FRONTOGENSIS WITHIN THE
BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION. THE ENSEMBLES AND MODEL CONSENSUS PAINT
A PROBABILITY OF 50-75% CHANCE OF SNOW UP TO AN INCH FOR MAJORITY OF
THE CWA. SOME AREAS ALONG THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AXIS JUST SOUTH OF
THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO BELTRAMI COUNTY HAVE A 20-40% PROBABILITY
OF UP TO 3INCHES. MINOR IMPACTS COULD BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
SNOWFALL. THE PROBABILITY FOR BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS WILL ALSO BE A
CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. AS THE WINDS INCREASE FROM THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION COMING THROUGH LATER THAT EVENING, AREAS WITH MORE
FRESHLY FALLEN SNOW WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. ARCTIC CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES DROP DOWN TO ALMOST -15F OVERNIGHT.
FARGO AND SOUTH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP NEAR -10F AND
SLIGHTLY WARMER. THESE COLD TEMPS COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS(25MPH)
COULD BRING HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS OF -35F OR COLDER. THERE REMAINS
SOME VARIABILITY IN HOW COLD TEMPS GET AND/OR HOW HIGH WINDS GET,
THUS DECREASING CONFIDENCE IN REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (-40F) WIND
CHILL VALUES.
FROM THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY, ENSEMBLES AGREE THE ARCTIC LOW RETREATS
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL
BRING TEMPS BACK TOWARD AVERAGE FOR MID DECEMBER. IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
HOW THE PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BEYOND SUNDAY WITH LARGE VARIATION IN
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN FLOW.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST SUN DEC 4 2022
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH OF OUR TAF SITES, THOUGH A FEW FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT
AT KTVF OR KBJI THIS AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL AT LEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LLWS POSSIBLE AT TIMES EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD (40-45KT) AS A LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS THORUGH EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN. SURFACE WINDS SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST THORUGH THE TAF PERIOD (GUSTS AROUND 30KT POSSIBLE AT
KDVL DURING THE AFTERNOON). MVFR STRATUS MAY SPREAD SOUTH LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA, MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN
NORTHWEST MN BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
SHORT TERM...DJR
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...DJR
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