524
FXUS63 KFGF 171811
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
111 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019
WINDS ARE GETTING PRETTY GUSTY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL
CONTINUE THAT WAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART, ONLY
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
DID SOME RAIN CHANCE MODIFICATION INTO TONIGHT TO MATCH UP WITH
INCOMING GUIDANCE. THIS NEW GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT ELEVATED
CONVECTION MAY NOT FORM UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNRISE. OVERALL TONIGHTS THUNDER THREAT LOOKS PRETTY SIMILAR IN
TIMING AND AREA AFFECTED TO THE THUNDER THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTO THE SOUTHERN RRV AND
WEST-CENTRAL MN EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERALL CONVECTION IS NOT
VERY ROBUST, HOWEVER ISOLATED PULSES OF COLDER TEMPERATURES
WITHIN BROADER CLOUD TOPS COUPLED WITH INCREASED LIGHTNING IS
BEING OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS INDICATES UPDRAFTS ARE
UTILIZING SOME OF THE MODERATE INSTABILITY PRESENT WHICH CAN THEN
HELP TRANSFER STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THUS
THERE IS A CHANCE STRONGER CELLS COULD BRIEFLY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS TO 55 MPH, WITH LIGHTER PRECIP ALLOWING FOR GUSTS TO 30-40
MPH. CONVECTION WILL EXIT INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AROUND MIDDAY.
TODAY WILL AGAIN BE WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM WITH MUGGY
CONDITIONS THIS MORNING, HIGH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S AND
WINDS GUSTING INTO THE 30S MPH OUT OF THE SOUTH. FOCUS THEN GOES
TO A PASSING COLD FRONT AND ITS CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING, MAINLY AFTER 9 PM. WHILE THERE REMAINS QUESTIONS ON EXACT
LOCATION OF STORM DEVELOPMENT, LOCATIONS THAT CURRENTLY HOLD BEST
CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY RESIDE IN THE SOUTHERN RRV INTO WEST- CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST- CENTRAL MN. THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL GIVEN AN
ENVIRONMENT COMPRISED OF STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS AND LINGERING
MODERATE INSTABILITY. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY DUE TO ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT FEEDING
INTO STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING. ACTIVITY MOVES EAST
DEEPER INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA AWAY FROM THE AREA BY 3 AM.
ELSEWHERE, LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST ND ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019
FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS THE 500 MB UPPER LOW WHICH WILL AFFECT THE
AREA STARTING THU NIGHT. THU NIGHT WILL SEE 500 MB LOW OVER
IDAHO/UTAH WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM FAR WESTERN MANITOBA INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. VERY WARM
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER EASTERN ND AND WITH LOW
LEVEL JET SETTING UP FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND
THU EVENING AND SPREAD EAST-NORTHEAST THU OVERNIGHT. RISK IS HEAVY
RAINFALL AS WPC INDICATES PWATS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM
NORMAL.
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE FRONT MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH
LIKELY WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND T-STORMS MOVING ALONG IT.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE RRV FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS
PERIOD IS THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION AS
40 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES IN AND A 500 MB IMPULSE MOVES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE HEAVY RAIN IS A
THREAT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE MORE INTO MINNESOTA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE
500 MB LOW/VORT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY
GIVING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT TUE SEP 17 2019
WITH DIURNAL HEATING, AREAS OF CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE FORMED FROM
NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. ALSO, AREAS
OF THICKER CLOUDS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA ASSOCIATED WITH
MORNING CONVECTION HAVE CONTINUED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GFK,
BJI, AND TVF HAVE ALL BEEN SEEING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO, GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN SEEN WITH SOME AREAS GUSTING TO OVER 25
KNOTS. EXPECT WINDS TO DECREASE NEAR SUNSET WITH WINDS TO 40 KNOTS
OR MORE AT 2,000 FEET AGL PERSISTING. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN
TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING IS VCTS AT BJI AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN TOMORROW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS
TO 30 KNOTS OR MORE.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON/WASILEWSKI
SHORT TERM...CJ
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON/WASILEWSKI
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