394
FXUS63 KFGF 180214
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
914 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
SPLIT FLOW WAS ACROSS THE AREA WITH NORTHERN STREAM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND SOUTHERN STREAM ACROSS THE STATES. RELATIVELY BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA WILL SHIFT EAST AND FLATTEN AS A
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED
FROM THE MAN/ONTARIO BORDER TO WESTERN IA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE EAST WITH RETURN FLOW TO COMMENCE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND WILL BE HIGH THAN NORMAL TONIGHT.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OUT OF AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
ZONES FOR THU AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
OVERALL MODEL IN AGREEMENT WITH MAIN 500 MB PATTERN INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT INTO THE 25-35 KT RANGE OVER E
ND/RRV. MAIN COLD PUNCH WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT AND ARRIVE
FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A FEW RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS. MUCH COLDER AIR
OVER THE AREA MONDAY, CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS 850 MB
TEMPS DROP FROM +10-12C RANGE ON 00Z FRI TO -8 TO -12C RANGE 12Z
SATURDAY. BUT THIS IS A QUICK SHOT OF COLDER AIR AS NEXT WEEK WILL
SEE THE UPPER AIR PATTERN GO TO A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST PATTERN. ONE
ADDITIONAL WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA MON-TUES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED OCT 17 2018
ONLY ISSUE FOR THE TAFS IS A LOW LEVEL JET THAT DEVELOPS LATE
THIS EVENING AND HANGS AROUND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS
AT THAT LEVEL LOOK TO BE WEST-SOUTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
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