937
FXUS63 KFGF 142333
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINTER IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
..SYNOPSIS
LARGE SCALE PATTERN FEATURES A SPLIT IN ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS, WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EAST OF OUR REGION. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE WITH STRATUS SLOWLY STARTING TO BREAK UP.
ADDITIONAL FOG/STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AFTER THE CURRENT
LOW CLOUDS CLEAR, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR MAINLY AVIATION IMPACTS IN
NORTH CENTRAL MN. DEEPER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW/WAA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A DEEPENING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BUILDS EASTWARD
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE
IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND MAY RESULT IN A LARGE SPREAD IN POTENTIAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES NORTH TO SOUTH (LOW 50S TO NEAR 80F DEPENDING ON
TIMING WITHIN OUR CWA). IT WILL ALSO BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SNOW
BACK TO OUR REGION FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THAT TROUGH
PASSES, THERE IS A STRONG CONSENSUS IN MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
ARRIVING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH RISING HEIGHTS REFLECTIVE OF
INCREASING TEMPERATURES (60S/70S BY TUESDAY). THIS PATTERN ALSO
LOWERS THE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, THOUGH THE
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE/FLOW ALOFT MAY STILL ALLOW FOR FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES NEAR OUR CWA.
..WINTER TRAVEL IMPACT POTENTIAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
AS STRONGER SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND WAA IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER
OVERSPREAD OUR CWA SEVERAL PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION
(MAINLY RAIN) SHOULD MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH OUR CWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. ALL ENSEMBLES AT THIS TIME SUPPORT THE MAIN CLOSED
700MB LOW TRACKING OVER MANITOBA, PLACING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
FRONTOGENSIS TO THE NORTH, WHILE MOST PRECIPITATION IN OUR CWA WILL
BE DRIVEN BY WAA OR BROADER DEFORMATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
500MB LOW. WHILE THERE IS OVERALL STRONG CONSENSUS ON THE LARGER
SCALE TRACK, SMALLER SCALE FEATURES AT THE SURFACE (LOW
TRACK/FRONTAL TIMING) STILL PLAY A ROLE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR WINTER
IMPACTS. A LARGER NUMBER OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GENERALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURE PROFILES IN PLACE SUPPORTIVE OF LIQUID WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING OUTSIDE OF THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING PERIODS
FOR MOST LOCATIONS (LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OR A
WINTRY MIX). IN THIS SCENARIO (80% CHANCE) MOST AREAS WOULD SEE
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION (BETTER CHANCE FOR 1" IN THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN).
THERE IS STILL A SUBSET OF MEMBERS (20%) THAT SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED
DEFORMATION WHILE TEMPERATURE PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW
AND HAVE BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW TOTALS GREATER THAN 3". AS GROUND
TEMPERATURES ARE WARMER, MOST OF THIS WILL TEND TO BE ON
GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES THAT MAY LIMIT IMPACTS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
RATES/WIND REDUCING VISIBILITY WHERE MODERATE/BRIEF HEAVY SNOW WOULD
TRACK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
MVFR STRATUS IS SLOWLY CLEARING, AND SHOULD END AT KFAR, KGFK
AND KTVF IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERNIGHT, THE MAIN AVIATION
CONCERN IS FOG. FOG COULD FORM AT ANY TERMINAL AFTER 5Z, BUT IT
LOOKS MOST LIKELY AT KBJI, WHERE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIFR WERE
ADDED TO THE TAF LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL TEMPOS WERE ADDED AT KFAR AND KTVF TO HIGHLIGHT WHEN
THE CHANCE OF FOG IS GREATEST. FINALLY, THERE IS MORE
UNCERTAINTY IN FOG DEVELOPMENT AT KGFK. THEREFORE, I DID NOT ADD
IN ANY IFR/LIFR, BUT A PREVAILING MVFR GROUP WAS INCLUDED FOR
THE PERIOD WHEN FOG, IF IT DOES DEVELOP, WOULD BE MOST LIKELY.
FOG WILL CLEAR BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH VFR THROUGH THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DJR
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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