988
FXUS63 KFGF 081839
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
139 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.
- WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WITH GUSTS TO 55
MPH BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS A VERY WELL SPUN UP
UPPER LOW WITH DRY SLOTTING ONGOING ACOSS THE NORTH
DAKOTA/MINNESOTA STATE LINE. AT THE SURFACE, A PRESSURE TROUGH
IS FUELING A LINE OF CONVECTIVE SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY
PUSHING EAST, WITH A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW/RAIN BEHIND
IT CLOSER TO A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY SITS FROM
DEVILS LAKE DOWN THROUGH BISMARCK. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING RAIN AND SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT PROPAGATES
EASTWARD.
THROUGH THE WEEK, ZONAL FLOW TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE IN
OVER THE REGION AS UPSTREAM AN UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS PROPAGATES
EASTWARD TOWARDS US. THIS WILL ALLOW MEAN TEMPERATURES TO WARM
THROUGH THE WEEK. DEPENDING ON SNOWPACK COVERAGE, HIGHS THIS
WEEKEND COULD GET INTO THE 70S IN SOME LOCATIONS IF CONDITIONS
ARE IDEAL. REGARDLESS, SNOWPACK EROSION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS SOUTHWEST FLOW REPLACES NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF FROZEN SOILS AND SNOWPACK MELTING, THERE
IS ALWAYS THE CONCERN ABOUT RIVER FLOODING. RIGHT NOW, NOTHING
IS SETTING OFF ALARM BELLS FROM A QPF STANDPOINT, AS EFI QPF
VALUES ARE NOT EVEN HIGHLIGHTING ANYTHING OVER THE REGION AND
BASE NBM FORECASTS ARE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH BASIN-WIDE.
..SNOW AND WIND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
A PRESSURE TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA HAS FUELED SOME
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGING BRIEF BURSTS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL
RATES. THIS HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES BUT
ONLY FOR BRIEF PERIODS WITH LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS. BEHIND THIS,
MORE BROAD SYNOPTIC ASCENT WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
HEAVY SNOWFALL. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS HAVE
POTENTIAL BUT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL
RATES WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY. IN ANY CASE,
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL ARISE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WHERE SNOWFALL IS HEAVY ENOUGH.
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS A BROAD SWATH OF WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 40-50 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND MAX IS STILL WORKING ITS
WAY EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DESPITE DEEP VERTICAL MIXING,
WINDS ALOFT DON'T INTENSIFY TO 50+ KNOTS UNTIL WELL ABOVE THE
MIXED LAYER, SO HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WITH THE FURTHER SOUTH TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW, THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE ALL OF SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
AS WINDS SHIFT TO WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON, SNOW SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY PERIODICALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO A HALF MILE OR LESS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IN NORTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. OUTSIDE OF THIS, EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO MOSTLY REMAIN VFR TO MVFR. CEILINGS WILL FALL
THIS AFTERNOON TO MVFR AS CLOUD COVER ONCE AGAIN FILLS IN. AS
THE MAIN UPPER LOW PIVOTS FURTHER EASTWARD THIS EVENING,
CEILINGS MAY PROGRESS DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT IN NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. SKIES MAY REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW,
BUT GUIDANCE HAS SOME DECENT SPREAD ON CLOUD BASES BETWEEN MVFR
AND VFR, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN FLIGHT CATEGORY BY THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-
024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PERROUX
AVIATION...PERROUX
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page