636
FXUS63 KFGF 262338
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
638 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS FORECAST LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE
IS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SOAKING RAINFALL OF 1 INCH OR MORE
WITHIN FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
..SYNOPSIS
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES IS SLOWLY
PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THIS LEAVES SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION TODAY INTO TOMORROW. ONGOING
CYCLOGENESIS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
THE SEED FOR A POWERFUL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER, UPPER LEVEL FLOW
TURNS NORTHWESTERLY, PUTTING US IN A DRY PATTERN WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S EVERYDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. SHORTWAVE RIDGING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM FRIDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER, WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S RETURNING.
..WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD FROM KANSAS
TO LAKE SUPERIOR OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AS IT PASSES TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST, WE WILL FIND OURSELVES IN A REGION OF STEADY STRATIFORM
PRECIPITATION. RAIN WILL START THIS EVENING IN THE SOUTH, SPREADING
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN ND AND MN TONIGHT. THERE ARE STILL
A FEW MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THE LOW TRACKS,
WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE CUT OFF IN HEAVIER RAIN VERSUS
MUCH LIGHTER TOTALS SETS UP. RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY TRACKS TO THE NORTH AND EAST
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL VARY FROM NOTHING/SPRINKLES IN PARTS OF THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN TO OVER AN INCH IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE RESIDENCE TIME OF THE STEADIEST RAIN WILL BE LONGEST.
PROBABILITIES FOR AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN ARE HIGHEST IN WEST
CENTRAL MN AT 70%. TOTALS WILL VARY MOST OVER SHORT DISTANCES ON
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN, WHERE LITTLE SHIFTS IN
THE SYSTEMS TRACK WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE FINAL AMOUNT
OF RAIN RECEIVED. THIS INCLUDES PLACES SUCH AS VALLEY CITY,
GRAND FORKS, THIEF RIVER FALLS, AND ROSEAU.
ADDITIONALLY, IT WILL BE BREEZY ON MONDAY. THE BEST PRESSURE
RISES ARE TO OUR SOUTH, BUT WITH A 1025 MB HIGH OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND A NEAR 990 MB LOW IN SOUTHERN MN, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH OR SO.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF A WIND ADVISORY IS NEEDED
FOR ANY ZONES MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW, BASED ON
THE WEAK TEMPERATURE ADVECTION, QUESTIONABLE MIXING DEPTH AND
THE BULLSEYE OF PRESSURE RISES BEING OUTSIDE OUR CWA, DECIDED TO
HOLD ON ISSUING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN TO
START THE TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER RAIN IS STATING TO SPREAD OUT OF
SD AND SOUTHERN MN AND SHOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION BY
LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT (SOUTH TO NORTH). MVFR CEILINGS
WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD MOST TAF SITES (OFFSET BY RAIN START TIMES
BY 2-4HR) FOLLOWED BY A LARGE AREA OF IFR CEILINGS OVER
SOUTHEAST ND AND NORTHWEST MN. KDVL IS MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN
VFR, WITH MUCH LESS ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL BASED ON
THE CURRENT TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS (3-6SM MOST
LIKELY), WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RATES IN NORTHWEST MN.
WINDS ALSO SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY
NORTH-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 30KT THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD MONDAY.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY RAIN CLEARS AND VFR
STARTS RETURNING, HOWEVER THE CURRENT CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE
FAVORS AT LEAST IFR STARTING TO IMPROVE AT KFAR BY THE
AFTERNOON AND VFR RETURNING AT KGFK BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. LINGERING LIGHT RAIN AND IFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY
OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST MN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON (ESPECIALLY
KBJI).
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...DJR
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