505
FXUS63 KFGF 111141
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
641 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND,
INCLUDING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND 70S. THIS WILL GREATLY
ERODE EXISTING SNOWPACK. THIS ALONG WITH UPCOMING
PRECIPITATION BRINGS MEDIUM CHANCE FOR MINOR RIVERINE
FLOODING.
- A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK, BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS TIME, THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 30S TO LOW 40S. RADAR REFLECTIVITY IS NOT MANIFESTING
PRECIPITATION THUS FAR THIS MORNING; HOWEVER, BETTER RAIN
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CDT FRI APR 10 2026
..SYNOPSIS
TODAY'S SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER RIDGING IS BRINGING
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER. FOG IS NOT FORECAST TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING DESPITE GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, MAINLY
DUE TO LOWEST LEVEL WINDS FORECAST TO BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH .
THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE COMES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGHING INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST THIS
WEEKEND. THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASED
FORCING ALOFT WILL PROMOTE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE INTO OUR AREA
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGHING AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE OVER OUR AREA BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST AS HIGH AS THE 60S AND
70S.
THIS BEGINS A RELATIVELY LENGTHY PERIOD OF SOUTHWESTERLY/QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, PROMOTING A MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS UPPER
REGIME, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY HOW
EACH OF THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EVOLVE. MORE DETAILS ON THIS CAN
BE FOUND BELOW.
THE COMBINATION OF LENGTHY WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND
UPCOMING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CHANCE FOR
MINOR RIVERINE FLOODING FOR A FEW TRIBUTARIES IN MINNESOTA. MORE
DETAILS ON THIS BELOW.
..UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AHEAD
ENSEMBLES ALL AGREE IN THE UPPER PATTERN REMAINING IN THIS
SOUTHWESTERLY AND QUASI-ZONAL FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. WHILE ENSEMBLES HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT IN SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVOLUTIONS, THERE ARE A FEW
PERIODS OF NOTE THAT INCREASE OUR RELATIVE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. THESE PERIODS ARE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
TUESDAY, AND LATE NEXT WORK WEEK.
EACH OF THESE WILL BRING THEIR OWN WAVE OF INSTABILITY WITHIN
ITS WARM SECTOR LARGELY DISPLACED FROM OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
CONVECTION FED BY THIS WARM SECTOR MAY BE WITHIN OUR AREA,
INTRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE FORECAST.
AS OF NOW, MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES THAT
MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR WITHIN EASTERN MN INTO WI. STILL, THERE IS A LOW TO
MEDIUM CHANCE FOR 1-2 INCHES WITHIN MINNESOTA AND LOCATIONS
NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 BY END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE LATE WEEK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGE MAY FEATURE COLD ENOUGH
AIR FOR SOME OF ITS PRECIPITATION TO BE SNOW, OF WHICH MAY BE
ENOUGH TO ACCUMULATE. HOWEVER, DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIAL IS VERY
LIMITED DUE TO LONGER EXTENT INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD.
...WARM TEMPERATURES AND ERODING SNOWPACK BRINGS CHANCE FOR
RIVERINE FLOODING...
MANY
DUE TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, CONFIDENCE FOR A GREATLY ERODING
SNOWPACK IS HIGH. THERE REMAINS WIDESPREAD FROZEN AND/OR
SATURATED SOILS, WITH SEVERAL AREAS STILL SEEING STANDING WATER
IN OPEN FIELDS (AS SEEN FROM WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY).
THIS LENDS CONFIDENCE THAT EXISTING WATER CONTENT WITHIN THE
SNOWPACK WILL LARGELY RUNOFF INTO RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES.
THE CURRENT WATER CONTENT WITHIN THE SNOWPACK ISN'T VERY HIGH,
AND ALONE WILL LIKELY NOT PUSH RIVERS/TRIBUTARIES INTO FLOOD
STAGE. HOWEVER, THE COMBINATION OF THIS OCCURING WITH UPCOMING
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION INTRODUCE A MEDIUM CHANCE
FOR MINOR RIVERINE FLOODING. THIS IS MAINLY TIED TO MINNESOTA
TRIBUTARIES WITH CURRENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES RELATIVELY
HIGHEST IN MINNESOTA.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SAT APR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING, WITH MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE
IN THE TAF PERIOD, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CONDITIONS
HEADING INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KNOT RANGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...CJ
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