780
FXUS63 KFGF 161208
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
708 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN
EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITY OF
WIDESPREAD FREEZING TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 128 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
NORTH WINDS REMAIN GUSTY BUT SPEEDS ARE WELL BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS. NORTH WINDS WITHIN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AT 06Z WERE
SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-40 AT TIMES. COLD ADVECTION A
BIT TOO WEAK TO SUSTAIN HIGHER VALUES THAT ARE ABOVE THE
SURFACE. SO WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS DROPPED. COORD WITH WFO
BIS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD STRATUS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON,
BOTH HEAD OF AND BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS EXTENSIVE
UPSTREAM STRATUS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT, SAVE FOR
ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN WHERE SOME LATE-NIGHT CLEARING IS
EXPECTED. SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTH
CENTRAL ND IN CYCLONIC FLOW, AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING, RESULTING IN A HIGH POP/LOW QPF
SCENARIO AS THE PRIMARY MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AXIS CROSSES THE REGION. IN THE WAKE OF THIS WAVE, MEAN UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THIS
WEEKEND AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION THIS WEEKEND WILL RESULT IN
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEGINNING SATURDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THE SPREAD IN
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND NBM MEMBERSHIP IS SMALL FOR MOST OF THIS
PERIOD, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA FROM SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MAY MOVE
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND, WITH BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
AHEAD OF THAT ON SATURDAY, AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
ON SUNDAY. A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IS ALSO IN PLACE FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE MEAN
RIDGING, THOUGH A LOW TO MEDIUM PROBABILITY EXISTS FOR FLOW
ALOFT TO TURN SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY PREDICATE LOW RAIN CHANCES BY THEN.
..STRONG WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON ARE
FORECAST TO TURN NORTHERLY AND INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT, WITH
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH, PARTICULARLY IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS AS OF
EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT ARE BOTH
FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA BY
LATE AFTERNOON. INITIAL LOW- AND MIDLEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT IS
CONTRIBUTING TO GUSTY WINDS IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, WHICH MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SOUTHWARD
TOWARD VALLEY CITY BEFORE 00Z. HOWEVER, THE INITIAL PUSH OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED, AND SURFACE
PRESSURE RISES ARE LACKING. BOTH OF THOSE ASPECTS WILL CHANGE
AFTER 00Z WHEN THE MIDDLE- AND UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS
PASSES EASTERN ND, TURNING DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION, WITH A SECONDARY AND STRONGER SURGE OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONCURRENT WITH INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SUBSIDENCE. THE
LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH 45-50 KT FLOW IN
THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER AND COLD-AIR-ADVECTION-STEEPENED LAPSE
RATES CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT MIXING AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER
THROUGH MUCH OF THAT LAYER. WE ALSO ANTICIPATE A 5-7 MB/3 HOUR
SURFACE PRESSURE RISE BUBBLE MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EASTERN ND
AND FAR WESTERN MN. THIS SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO YIELD
ADVISORY-LEVEL NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THOSE AREAS, MAXIMIZED
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE FLOW. POINT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT BOTH GRAND FORKS AND FARGO SUGGEST
MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR 50 KT GUSTS, BUT THE
DEPTH AND TEMPORAL EFFICIENCY OF THE MIXED LAYER WAS NOT
SUFFICIENT FOR US TO UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING. HAVING SAID
THAT, THERE IS A 30-50% CHANCE OF GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH IN THE
RED RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED INGREDIENTS
ALIGN, PARTICULARLY IN THE 02Z TO 07Z TIME FRAME. BOTH TIME-
LAGGED HRRR AND 12Z RRFS/REFS GUIDANCE SUPPORT MAXIMUM GUSTS
NEAR 50 MPH, CONSISTENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEPTH OF
MIXING.
THERE IS ALSO AROUND A 50% PROBABILITY THAT ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS
EXTEND FURTHER INTO WEST CENTRAL MN, E.G., PORTIONS OF OTTER TAIL
AND GRANT COUNTIES. TIME-LAGGED HRRR GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THAT
POTENTIAL, BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN MIXING NOCTURNALLY, WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED THEM INTO THE WIND ADVISORY.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY FRIDAY MORNING AS A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA.
..FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WE HAVE ISSUED A FREEZE WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA CENTERED
ON THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN TONIGHT, WHERE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S F. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY EXPECTED
LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION, BUT MAY BE OFFSET BY LINGERING
CLOUDS (STRATUS) AND WINDS THAT MAY NOT DIMINISH UNTIL CLOSE TO
SUNSET EVEN IN THOSE AREAS. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN ND
AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN, WE BELIEVE THE CLOUD COVER
AND WINDS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT THE EFFICIENCY OF COOLING. TAKEN
AT FACE VALUE, THE 50TH PERCENTILE NBM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
TEMPERATURES AROUND 32 IN PARTS OF THE MN LAKES COUNTRY. IN
CONTRAST, MOS-BASED GUIDANCE (WHICH IS NOT BIAS-CORRECTED BY
RECENT BACKGROUND TRENDS) FAVORS THE TEMPERATURES STAYING ABOVE
FREEZING, CONSISTENT WITH THE EXPECTATION OF CLOUD COVER AND
WINDS LIMITING FULL COOLING POTENTIAL.
MEDIUM TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXIST
FRIDAY NIGHT OWING TO THE COOL POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS AND
EXPECTATION OF A CLEAR SKY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S F, LOWEST IN PARTS OF
WEST CENTRAL MN, WHICH WILL BE NEAR A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS THE
LONGEST DURING THE NIGHT.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
CLOUDS ON THEIR WAY OUT WITH REMAINING CLOUDS BEMIDJI AREA SOUTH
TO PARK RAPIDS AND WADENA CLEARING OUT THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY TODAY ONCE ANY CLOUDS CLEAR. NORTH WIND
DIMINISHING MOSTLY WITHIN THE 10-15KT RANGE SUSTAINED, FEW
GUSTS 25 KTS. LIGHT WINDS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT QUICKLY
TURNING TO THE SOUTH AND INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS OVERNIGHT.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ006-007-014-
015-054.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...RIDDLE
DISCUSSION...FGF
AVIATION...RIDDLE
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