820
FXUS63 KFGF 290049
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
649 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT
TO FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN 30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD BRING TRAVEL IMPACTS LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 647 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
STRATUS IS SLOWLY ERODING THIS EVENING WITH ATTENDANT SNOW GOING
WITH IT. ANOTHER BATCH OF STRATUS IS WORKING ITS WAY DOWN FROM
CANADA AND LOOKS TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING WITH SNOW ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH IT. IMPACTS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL AS ACCUMULATING SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..SYNOPSIS
EXPANSIVE AND WELL ESTABLISHED UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. OVER THE WESTERN HALF,
UPPER RIDGING IS DEVELOPING, HELPING BUILD A MILDER CONTINENTAL
AIR MASS. ON THE WESTERN FLANKS OF UPPER TROUGHING, A LOBE OF
VORTICITY WILL TRAVERSE MB/WESTERN ON INTO MN THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THIS ALSO HOUSES MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS, BRINGING WITH
IT POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUSLY COLD CONDITIONS THURSDAY OVERNIGHT TO
FRIDAY MORNING. THIS MAY ALSO BRING LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES
THURSDAY, OF WHICH WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST.
AS THE VORTICITY DEPARTS TO THE SOUTH, UPPER RIDGING IN THE WEST
WILL SPREAD ITS INFLUENCE TOWARD OUR REGION STARTING SATURDAY.
THIS OCCURS AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CANADIAN ROCKIES TRAVERSES THE DAKOTAS
AND MN WEST TO EAST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT
WINTRY PRECIPITATION (MOSTLY SNOW) AND GUSTY WINDS, BOTH OF
WHICH MAY IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. SEE MORE DETAILS BELOW. WITH
THIS CLIPPER, TEMPERATURES FINALLY TREND TOWARD AVERAGE.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE OVERALL TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR
AVERAGE TO PERHAPS ABOVE AVERAGE, INCLUDING A CHANCE FOR ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES. THIS IS DRIVEN BY QUASI- NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN BETWEEN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
UPPER RIDGING / QUASI-ZONAL OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW WAVES OF ENERGY AND PACIFIC- SOURCED MOISTURE TO
TRAVERSE THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
NEXT WEEK. EACH WAVE WILL BRING ITS OWN PERIOD FOR LIGHT WINTER
PRECIPITATION AS WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS. WHILE THERE
IS CURRENTLY NO STRONG SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
FROM ANY POTENTIAL WAVE, THERE STILL MAY BE IMPACTS THAT
RESULT, MAINLY TO TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE
IF WE FLIRT WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITH VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES TRAPPED WITHIN THE SUB-SURFACE EXITING OUT OF THE
RECENT STRETCH OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES.
..POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS THURSDAY/FRIDAY
WITH THE LOBE OF VORTICITY SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION IN A
RATHER AMPLIFIED MANNER, THIS WILL HELP BUILD VERY STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INTO OUR AREA, POTENTIALLY AS STRONG AS
1050 MB. THIS PLACES IT IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN TERMS OF HOW
ABNORMALLY STRONG A SURFACE HIGH OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD BE.
COUPLE THIS WITH THE VERY DRY AND COLD MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR MASS,
THIS MAY PRESENT A SCENARIO WHERE TEMPERATURES REALLY DIP TOWARD
THE LOWEST PERCENTILES FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WITH THE HELP OF
VERY EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL
FOR AIR TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER TWENTIES TO LOW THIRTIES
BELOW ZERO.
THERE IS, HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY IN HOW QUICKLY AND STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO OUR AREA. SHOULD IT BUILD
SLOWER AND/OR WEAKER, WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A LINGERING LIGHT
BREEZE. WHILE THIS WOULD LIMIT HOW LOW AIR TEMPERATURES MAY GET,
IT WOULD CONTRIBUTE TOWARD LOWER WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 30 TO
40 BELOW ZERO RANGE. THIS MAY ALSO LINGER CLOUDS WITHIN THE
REGION, WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT HOW LOW TEMPERATURES GET,
POTENTIALLY KEEPING WIND CHILLS GREATER THAN 30 BELOW ZERO
DESPITE A LINGERING WIND.
RELATIVELY HIGHEST CHANCE FOR COLDEST CONDITIONS RESIDES WITHIN
DEVILS LAKE BASIN OF NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY, INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. AT
THESE LOCATIONS, THERE IS AROUND A 50% CHANCE FOR WIND CHILL
VALUES BETWEEN 30 TO 40 BELOW ZERO.
..POTENTIAL TRAVEL IMPACTS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY WILL LIKELY CREATE AT LEAST DRIFTING SNOW,
POTENTIALLY AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME
HOW REDUCED VISIBILITY MAY BECOME, MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW STRONG WINDS MAY GET. IN THIS PATTERN, AREAS LIKE THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY CAN SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS THAT LEAD TO BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS SHOULD
THERE BE ENOUGH BLOWABLE SNOW.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN FORCING FOR ASCENT AND MOISTURE,
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN AT LEAST
ACCUMULATING SNOW UP TO 1 INCH. THERE IS AROUND A 20% CHANCE FOR
SNOW ACCUMULATION BETWEEN 2-3 INCHES. THERE IS ALSO SOME SIGNAL
FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING DRIZZLE. THIS MAY AID
IN DEPOSITING A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE, ALTHOUGH THE PROGRESSIVE
MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE SHOULD LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME FOR ICE
ACCUMULATION.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE HAZARDS OVERALL EQUATES TO AROUND 20%
CHANCE FOR SEEING ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS, MAINLY TO TRAVEL
CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS DAYTIME SATURDAY LASTING INTO SUNDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 517 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TAF PERIOD IS IN STORE WITH MVFR CEILINGS
BEING HIT AND MISS AT THE TIME OF ISSUANCE. THE MAIN QUESTION
RIGHT NOW IS IF MVFR STRATUS EXPANDS THIS EVENING. RIGHT NOW, IT
DOES APPEAR TO BE BEING ERODED AWAY, BUT GIVEN THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME MIXING, IT IS POSSIBLE WE SEE EXPANSION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. BENEATH THIS STRATUS, MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES DUE TO
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AND HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ALREADY. IF STRATUS
DOES NOT EXPAND, EXPECT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL.
A BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL PUSH FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
TOMORROW MORNING, EVENTUALLY BRINGING SOME TAF SITES DOWN TO
MVFR REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS THIS EVENING. RIGHT NOW, IT
APPEARS LIKE THIS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW AND GIVEN THE
LOW CEILINGS, FLURRIES/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...PERROUX
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