913
FXUS63 KFGF 212325
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
625 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MONDAY.
- SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT/FRIDAY
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NW FLOW CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH INCREASING RIDGING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.
TROUGHING OFF THE PACIFIC COAST LOOKS TO MOVE ASHORE SATURDAY
AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE BRINGING INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. RIDGING THEN RETURNS FOR THE MID AND LATE
WEEK. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY
THOUGH THERE ARE STILL A SOME UNKNOWNS SO WONT SPECULATE INTO
THE POTENTIAL TOO MUCH. OVERALL SEASONAL WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S EACH DAY AND PEAK DAILY HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY 80-85 MAKING A IT A COMFORTABLE STRETCH OF LATE SUMMER
WEATHER.
- TODAY
A SHORTWAVE IS QUICKLY TRAVERSING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH
COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND YESTERDAYS WAVE HELPING TO STEEPEN
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. OVERALL PRETTY SKINNY INSTABILITY BUT
REMINISCENT OF A SPRINGTIME NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A DEEPENING CU
FIELD AND THE EXPECTATION FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ONCE WE REACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS
AFTERNOON. NOT LIKLEY TO SEE HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS BUT A FEW
LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COULD SQUEAK OUT A QUICK TENTH.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED WITH ONLY 20-25KTS OF EFF SHEAR
AND 1000 J/KG OF ML CAPE BUT SOME SMALL HAIL IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.
- RAIN/SEVERE CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AI ENSEMBLES AGREE STRONGLY ON THE TRACK
OF THE WAVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PROVINCES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON/TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE EURO STILL THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION BUT THE GFS IS CATCHING UP AS EXPECTED.
OVERALL THE EXPECTATION IS FOR LEE TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES
WITH MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A WIND
AND HAIL THREAT ON MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS. THIS DOES APPEAR TO EVOLVE INTO A CLOSED 500MB WAVE
WITH CLOSED ISOTHERMS AS WELL WITHIN THE LOW MEETING THE
DEFINITION OF A COLD CORE LOW SUPPORTING A LOCALIZED TORNADO
THREAT IN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE TRACK
THIS APPEARS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2026
SIMPLE TAFS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS ARE ALREADY
DECREASING, WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT, SUSTAINING
THEMSELVES OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS. CURRENT
CLOUD COVER WILL THIN OUT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, LEAVING US CLEAR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR FOG
TO DEVELOP, BUT WITH AT LEAST SOME NORTHERLY WIND, IT WILL
LIKELY BE HARDER FOR IT TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THEN IT WAS LAST
NIGHT. THEREFORE, I DID NOT INCLUDE FOG IN ANY TAFS AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON SATURDAY, STILL OUT OF THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST, SUSTAINED AT ABOUT 10 TO 12 KNOTS AT ALL TAF
STIES BY AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT KFAR AND KGFK AS
WELL, BUT WILL REMAIN UNDER 20 KNOTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TT
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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