692
FXUS63 KFGF 301256
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
656 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AND SATURDAY
MORNING. LOOK FOR WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO.
- LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL IMPACT TRAVEL LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA, AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE IS A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR ADVISORY IMPACTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 656 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
WIND CHILLS ARE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF -25 TO -35 DEGREES,
WITH THE COLDEST VALUES IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE NORTHERN
RED RIVER VALLEY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE, BUT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
OVERALL, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 433 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..SYNOPSIS
DEEP H5 TROUGHING DRIFTS SOUTHWARD TODAY, WITH RIDGING SLOWLY
WORKING EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WARM AIR ADVECTION SLOWLY
TAKES SHAPE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO TRAVERSE THE FLOW PATTERN SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, HOWEVER, BLOWING SNOW
COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AND IMPACT TRAVEL. OUR NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR
SNOW SHOWS UP ON TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HEADING INTO MID WEEK, MUCH WARMER TEMPS PREVAIL AS STRONG LOW TO
MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS ALLOW A BRIEF WARMUP FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
THIS IS LIKELY TO BE FOLLOWED, HOWEVER, BY A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AS
A LOBE OF H5 TROUGHING PIVOTS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW, BRINGING
COLD AIR BACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
..HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS TODAY AND SATURDAY
WIND CHILL VALUES THIS MORNING WILL BE AS LOW AS 40 BELOW ZERO FOR
MOST AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2, WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 30 BELOW TO
35 BELOW FURTHER SOUTH. SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER AS WAA
STARTS LATE THIS EVENING; HOWEVER, WIND CHILLS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
FALL INTO THE RANGE OF 30 BELOW TO 40 BELOW AS WINDS PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTH.
..TRAVEL IMPACTS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
LOOKING FURTHER INTO THE WEEKEND, WARM AIR ADVECTION BRINGS MOISTURE
INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY. A VERY NARROW
SHORTWAVE RIDGE PUSHES QUICKLY THROUGH AHEAD OF A CLIPPER AND THE
ASSOCIATED 700MB TROUGH. DEEP SATURATION, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
THETA-E GRADIENT BOUNDARY, WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERAL
BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AS WELL AS A FEW TRANSIENT BANDS OF
HEAVIER SNOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS A 70 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF
1.5 INCHES OR MORE SNOW THROUGH MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA, THE
RED RIVER VALLEY, AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. INITIALLY, WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY, BUT WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS WILL BE
STRONGEST WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION LATE SATURDAY AS SNOW IS
BEGINNING TO FALL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS SUCH,
VISIBILITY IS LIKELY TO BE ADVERSELY IMPACTED AND LEAD TO POTENTIAL
TRAVEL IMPACTS AND DELAYS THAT PERSIST INTO SUNDAY. WITH THIS IN
MIND, THERE IS STILL A 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL IMPACTS
AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ006>008-014>016-026-027-029-030-039-053-054.
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032.
UPDATE...LYNCH
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...LYNCH
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