108
FXUS63 KFGF 160827 CCA
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
327 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN HAZARD
WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHTNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE JUN 16 2026
UPDATE TO KEY MESSAGE.
THE MAIN ELEVATED INSTABILITY AXIS IS NOW SHOWN BY GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE LATEST HREF TO REMAIN WEST OF OUR REGION, WHICH
LOWERS THE PROBABILITY FOR STRONG OR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS IN EASTERN ND AS WEAK SHEAR AND MUCAPE GENERALLY UNDER
800 J/KG IS EXPECTED OVER OUR FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. THE THREAT IS
NOW FAVORED WEST OF OUR CWA.
THE NEXT MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE REGION DURING PEAK
HEATING AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STILL SUPPORT INCREASING
SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS (NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST). WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS EVENTUALLY OVERSPREADING THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN MID LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS EASTERN ND AND
NORTHWEST MN. THE PROBABILITY FOR WETTING RAIN IS HIGHEST ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN THIS PATTER, WITH THE PROBABILITY FOR
GREATER THAN 0.5" ABOVE 50% MAINLY FROM CENTRAL ND INTO
SOUTHEAST ND AND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN BASED ON CURRENT HREF
AND NBM 24HR PROBABILITIES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
..SYNOPSIS
NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. ANOMALOUSLY LOW H5 HEIGHTS
REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE HUDSON BAY SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SHORTWAVES TRAVERSE THE FLOW ON THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW, BRINGING REGULAR RAIN CHANCES TO OUR
AREA. THE FIRST SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRECEDING THE H7
WAVE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
AS A BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE. THIS
AXIS OF DEVELOPMENT REMAINS IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRAVERSE THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE EVENING. HEADING INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, TIMING IS LESS
CERTAIN, WITH CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THURSDAY
LOOKS DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS; HOWEVER, THERE ARE SEVERAL
ENSEMBLE SCENARIOS THAT BRING RAIN CHANCES TO EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. FRIDAY BRINGS SOME UNCERTAINTY, BUT SEEMS TO CARRY A BIT
MORE CONSENSUS BETWEEN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING THE
LIKELIHOOD TO SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
..ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA, THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY, AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOUNDINGS CONFIRM THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE CAPE VALUES GENERALLY
JUST BELOW 1000 J/KG, BUT WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR. DRY AIR IS IN
PLACE AT THE SURFACE, WHICH SUPPORTS A MENTION OF WIND GUSTS;
HOWEVER, WITH WEAK CAPE AND SHEAR, UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOMEWHAT SHORT LIVED. WITH THE TALLER STORMS, WE COULD SEE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE LOADING TO SUPPORT 1 INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. MANY STORMS, HOWEVER, WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH SEVERE
STRENGTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2026
VFR TONIGHT WITH A FEW GUSTS STILL OVER 15KTS BUT THOSE SHOULD
DROP OFF OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING MORE W/SW TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH A GENTLE 10-15KT BREEZE. MOST SITES WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN AT
SOME POINT AFTER 22Z TOMORROW BUT VARYING DEGREES OF CONFIDENCE
IN RAIN LEAD TAFS NOT YET REFLECTING THAT DETERMINISTICALLY.
THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT UPDATES BUT FELT A
SIMPLE MENTION IN THIS DISCUSSION WOULD SUFFICE FOR NOW. THERE
IS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS AFTER 00Z TOMORROW.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...DJR
DISCUSSION...LYNCH
AVIATION...TT
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