866
FXUS63 KFGF 171854
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
154 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HAIL TO 1 INCH AND WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
..SYNOPSIS
TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WITH WESTERN RIDGING AND GREAT LAKES
TROUGHING BRINGING WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. STRONGEST INSTABILITY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA BUT WILL
STILL SEE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER CHANCE WITH THE WAVE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LATE OR THURSDAY. THEN AGAIN WITH A WAVE AT THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. WILL SEE SEASONAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS
IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD A COUPLE WARMER DAYS THURSDAY
AND NEXT MONDAY WHERE TEMPS WILL CLIMB SOLIDLY INTO THE 80S BUT
AGAIN MINIMAL IMPACTS WRT TO HAZARDOUS WEATHER.
..SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A SIGNAL WITHIN THE CAM GUIDANCE AND SOME
CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF FROPA IN THE CENTRAL AND SOME ACCAS
SOUTHERN VALLEY SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN LAKES REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TIMING OF THIS FRONT SEEMS ON
TRACK FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND WHEN THIS LIFT OR FORCING IS
COMBINED WITH PEAK HEATING AND ADVECTION OF BETTER INSTABILITY
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THAT 5 TO 7PM TIME FRAME. THE
STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE CAPABLE OF
HAIL TO AN INCH AND WINDS AT MOST TO 70MPH, GIVEN THE DRY
SOUNDINGS. COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
ISOLATED AT BEST AND LIMITED TO JUST THE LAKES COUNTRY AND THEN
POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT MON AUG 17 2026
TS PROB30S LIMITED TO BJI OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS AND
RELATIVELY WNW WINDS, SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS NEARING 20KTS
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY AT THE OTHER TAF SITES. FARGO
REMAINS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AS THEY REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BUT CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO PULL THE MENTION OF TS AS FROPA OCCURS
BY 20Z. OVERNIGHT WINDS LIGHTEN AND BECOME VRB UNDER 10KTS.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...JK
DISCUSSION...JK
AVIATION...JK
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