579
FXUS63 KFGF 222003
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
203 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TO 60 BELOW ZERO WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC AIRMASS IS IN PLACE OVER THE FA, AND WILL REMAIN IN CHARGE
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH RESPONSIBLE WILL TRACK SOUTH
AND EAST, REACHING SOUTHERN MN BY FRIDAY NIGHT. ON ITS HEELS,
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WORKS DOWN OUT OF SASKATCHEWAN. THIS
WILL AGAIN BRING A PERIOD OF EXTREMELY COLD WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THEREAFTER, NORTHWEST FLOW DOES NOT LOOK TO
BUDGE, LEAVING US RIDING A WAVERING BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS THE JET
NUDGES NORTH AND EAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WE WILL
WARM UP. HOWEVER, THERE ARE HINTS WITHIN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WORKING THROUGH THE REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY,
BUT PREDICTABILITY IN ITS EVOLUTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME. IT
DOES SEEM REGARDLESS OF HOW THIS WAVE PLAYS OUT, COLDER AIR WILL
FILTER BACK IN AS THE JET/BAROCLINIC ZONE DRIFTS BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
..COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE ARCTIC FRONT THAT BARRELED THROUGH LAST NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES HAVE WENT FROM COLD TO COLDER. TAKE THE TEMPERATURES
HERE AT THE WFO FOR EXAMPLE. AT 6AM, WE WERE AT -9F, FELL TO -16F BY
10AM, AND HAVE SINCE STAYED STUCK AT -17F. WIND CHILLS VARY FROM -35
IN THE SOUTH TO -55 NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THERE WILL BE NO
IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THIS COLD SNAP. WIND CHILL
VALUES OF -45 TO -60 ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE. THEREAFTER, AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE WORKS THROUGH, WINDS WILL DECREASE. THIS WILL AT
LEAST IMPROVE WIND CHILL VALUES MIDDAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WORST OF THE COLD
WEATHER SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
SECOND HIGH COMES THROUGH TO END THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
AGAIN FALL, WITH SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING EXTREME COLD TO THOSE
NORTH OF I-94 WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -50.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE EXTREME COLD WATCH TO
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 THROUGH
SUNDAY AT NOON. FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH, THE EXTREME COLD WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 3PM FRIDAY, THEREAFTER CONVERTING TO A
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. WHILE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHERE LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY GET ABOVE CRITERIA, THE MAIN
MESSAGE IS THAT IT IS COLD, AND A CONSISTENT HEADLINE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING BEST TELLS THAT STORY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER PERIOD WHERE A COLD WEATHER HEADLINE OF SOME
SORT WILL BE NEEDED. AT THIS TIME, WE DID NOT ISSUE ANYTHING TO
COVER THIS CONSIDERING IT IS DAY 3 INTO DAY 4 OF THE FORECAST, BUT
IT IS SOMETHING FUTURE SHIFTS WILL NEED TO DETERMINE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1154 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
VARIABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW SHOWERS
AND BLOWING SNOW CAUSING CEILING AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
GENERALLY, VISIBILITY WILL STAY MVFR TO IFR WITH CEILINGS MVFR.
WHILE THERE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW, IT WILL NOT PREVAIL, SO USED
PROB30S AT MOST SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL OVER THE
NEXT FOUR HOURS. AFTER SUNSET, CEILINGS SHOULD RISE, WINDS WILL
DECREASE, AND AS A RESULT, VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE, ESPECIALLY AT KBJI FOR MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF, PUT ADDED IN A SCT030 DECK TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POTENTIAL.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR NDZ006>008-
014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR NDZ049-052-053.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
NDZ049-052-053.
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ001>009-
013>017-022>024-027-028.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ029>032-040.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM FRIDAY TO NOON CST SUNDAY FOR
MNZ029>032-040.
DISCUSSION...RAFFERTY
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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