557
FXUS63 KFGF 071130
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
630 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES APPROACHING 25%.
- AT LEAST NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BASED ON EXPECTED DEEPER VERTICAL
MIXING. FOR THIS REASON, AN SPS WAS ISSUED FOR NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA, AS THERE IS A
HIGH PROBABILITY FOR AREAS TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 20 MPH SUSTAINED,
AVOIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER HUDSON BAY, WITH SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES COMING DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF IT FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES START TO PULL EAST. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
RISE A BIT TOMORROW, AND ALTHOUGH NOT A HUGE AMOUNT OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION, THE 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON AN UPWARD PATH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VERY SIMPLE TAFS TODAY THAT WILL FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL
TREND. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING, BECOMING A
STEADY BREEZE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND OR JUST OVER 10 KNOTS
BY LATE MORNING, PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. AFTER SUNSET, THIS STEADY NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TODAY, WITH ONLY A FEW
PASSING CIRRUS AND MAYBE CUMULUS AT KBJI. THIS EVENING, CLOUDS
WILL BUILD IN, BUT CIGS WILL REMAIN AT 10,000 FT AGL OR HIGHER.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...PERROUX
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...RAFFERTY
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