800
FXUS63 KFGF 231729
AFDFGF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE SEASON'S FIRST SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST NEXT
WEEK STARTING MEMORIAL DAY MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH
THE MOST STEADY RAIN IN FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. LINGERING MIST,
DRIZZLE, AND LIGHT RAIN PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND POINTS EAST. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE
REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
..SYNOPSIS
UPPER TROUGHING IS INFLUENCE OUR REGION'S WEATHER TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THIS IS BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT, ALONG WITH LINGERING DRIZZLE BEHIND THE
RAINFALL INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND PERHAPS AFTERNOON
(ESPECIALLY WITHIN MINNESOTA). GENERAL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE AROUND HALF AN INCH, WITH SOME SEEING AROUND 1 INCH (40%
CHANCE IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA). AREAS LIKE
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS,
LESS THAN A THIRD OF AN INCH.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING STEADY RAINFALL EXITS OUR
REGION, STOUT UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL INTRODUCE THE YEAR'S FIRST STINT OF
SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THESE TEMPERATURES START MEMORIAL DAY THIS MONDAY.
GUSTY WINDS, DRY AIR, AND HOT TEMPERATURES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TUESDAY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN HOW
GUSTY WINDS WILL GET, AS WELL AS SUSCEPTIBILITY OF FUELS TO
RAPID FIRE SPREAD GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL AND GREEN-UP OF
VEGETATION.
WITH THE BUILDING HEAT, INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE INCREASED
WITHIN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, THERE IS DEFT IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL AS LACK OF MORE ORGANIZED FORCING FOR ASCENT TO
KEEP POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOW. SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS
FORM, THEY MAY BE STRONG TO PERHAPS LOW END SEVERE WITH SMALL
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS MAIN POTENTIAL HAZARDS IN ADDITION TO
LIGHTNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP, BUT COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS MONDAY WITH A WEAK
BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO OUR AREA FROM THE NORTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2026
THERE ARE STILL POCKETS OF LIGHT FOG AND DRIZZLE LINGERING OVER
PARTS OF OF NORTHWEST MN (REDUCING VIS TO 3-6SM), BUT THESE ARE
ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF CLEARING. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD
TRANSITION TO MVFR THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, WITH VFR EVENTUALLY
RETURNING WEST TO EAST ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN
THROUGH 00Z. WINDS SHIFT FORM THE NORTHWEST TO WEST, AND A FEW
GUSTS TO 20KT MAY OCCUR WHERE CLOUD COVER BREAKS UP THIS
AFTERNOON. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRANSITIONS OVER THE REGION
THIS EVENING AND DAYTIME MIXING ENDS, WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE (5KT OR LESS) BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST OF THE REGION.
FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
UPDATE...LYNCH
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...DJR
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