850
FNUS75 KCYS 161030
FWSCYS
SPOT FORECAST FOR COLLINS RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
430 AM MDT TUE APR 16 2024
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT (307) 772-2227
DISCUSSION
WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING, BECOMING STRONG DURING THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND WILL BE OUT OF THE THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP CLOSE TO THE FIRE AREA BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT DOES
DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE STRONG AND ERRATIC WINDS. WINDS WILL RAPIDLY
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE OUT OF THE NORTH AT
AROUND 10 MPH. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MOST
OF THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (80-90 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS AND
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
CWR.................88 PERCENT DECREASING TO 48 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 0900, THEN 1 UNTIL 1200, THEN 3 UNTIL
1500, THEN 1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 56.
MIN HUMIDITY........55 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 18 TO 24 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 44 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 30 TO 39 MPH INCREASING TO 39 TO 41
MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (62300 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (155500 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO EXCELLENT (169100
KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........94 96 93 94 92 93 95 95 93 92 83 72
WEATHER COV.....LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF LKY LKY CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............90 90 90 90 90 90 50 50 50 50 50 50
LAL.............3 3 3 1 1 1 3 3 3 2 2 2
TEMP............50 49 48 49 49 50 49 49 50 51 53 55
RH..............89 93 96 89 86 80 80 80 77 74 66 59
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..21 21 23 23 24 24 24 23 23 22 21 18
20 FT WIND GUST.38 39 41 41 43 44 43 44 43 40 37 35
MIX HGT (KFT)...2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW N N N NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.30 33 36 38 39 41 41 41 39 39 40 41
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2
SDSPL KT-FT/100062 73 82 90 95 103 108 119 125 137 156 169
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).
CWR.................3 PERCENT.
LAL.................1.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37.
MAX HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 16 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......700 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH 31 TO 40 MPH DECREASING TO 9 TO 15 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....EXCELLENT (158900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE
EVENING DECREASING TO GOOD (63200 KNOT-FT) LATE
IN THE NIGHT DECREASING TO POOR (5800 KNOT-FT) IN
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED
FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........60 60 70 62 38 23 5 9 8 9 22 13
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............56 53 50 48 46 44 43 42 41 39 38 37
RH..............55 59 63 63 65 68 67 67 67 73 73 72
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W W W W
20 FT WIND SPD..16 14 13 12 10 10 9 8 7 7 7 7
20 FT WIND GUST.29 26 23 22 21 18 17 15 14 13 13 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.5 3.6 2.3 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW W
TRANSP WIND SPD.40 37 31 25 21 17 15 13 10 9 9 9
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
SDSPL KT-FT/1000159 115 63 28 16 12 11 9 7 6 6 6
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT). CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
CWR.................2 PERCENT INCREASING TO 16 PERCENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LAL.................1.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.
MIN HUMIDITY........42 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH 12 TO 16 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......6900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 16 MPH INCREASING TO 30 TO 32
MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (8600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (85500 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (116800
KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO
EXCELLENT (193600 KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THE AFTERNOON.
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........15 29 28 24 24 57 57 57 57 57 64 72
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TEMP............38 39 42 46 48 49 51 51 52 52 50 48
RH..............67 64 57 51 47 46 42 44 43 43 46 49
20 FT WIND DIR..W W NW NW NW NW NW N N N N N
20 FT WIND SPD..7 7 8 8 9 10 12 12 13 14 15 16
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 15 15 17 20 21 23 24 25 26 28
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.0 1.6 2.4 3.2 3.5 3.7 4.1 4.9 5.7 6.4 6.8 6.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.W W NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 12 12 14 16 20 24 28 30 32 32 32
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
SDSPL KT-FT/10009 16 24 38 49 63 86 117 149 181 191 194
FORECASTER...WOODWARD
REQUESTED BY...BEN JECH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2411062.0/CYS
.DELDT 04/16/24
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL BENJAMIN.J.JECH@USDA.GOV
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