734
FXUS63 KFSD 270142
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
842 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR RETURNS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH MODERATE (40-60%) CHANCES FOR STORMS LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- PERIODIC SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON ANY DETAILS IS LOW.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 90S SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SUNDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, MOSTLY CLEAR AND QUIET CONDITIONS
PERSIST THIS EVENING WITH A SURFACE HIGH FIRMLY OVERHEAD. EXPECT
THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS LOWS TOUCH THE
MID TO UPPER 50S FOR THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH ANOTHER MOSTLY QUIET DAY AHEAD WITH HIGHS PEAK IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 80S. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED
MAINLY DUE TO THE INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING AND BONE DRY SOUNDING PROFILES. HOWEVER, CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A VERY LOW CHANCE (<10%) FOR SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL SD AS PIECES OF WEAK LIFT
"RIDE THE RIDGE" INTO THE AREA. NONETHELESS, ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE LIMITED (IF ANY). LASTLY, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN THE
RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FIRST
CHANCES (50%-70%) FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER, SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT.
WITH THIS IN MIND, MAKE SURE TO MONITOR YOUR LOCAL FORECAST
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE ANY UPCOMING OUTDOOR PLANS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY RESULTING IN
QUIET WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS IN THE 50S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS ON
THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
ELEVATED MOISTURE MOVES IN AROUND THE 700-800 MB LAYER LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT IN SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHEAR IS WEAK AND CAPE VALUES RUNNING ABOUT
500-1000 J/KG. VERY DEFENDANT UPON THIS SMALL LAYER OF MOISTURE
HOWEVER, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR NOW.
SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED AT THE SURFACE ON FRIDAY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH LIKELY. WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AT
THE SURFACE ANY INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY WILL
LIKELY REMAIN CAPPED, HOWEVER WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A WAVE TO MOVE
THROUGH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON THIS CAPPING COULD WEAKEN AND ALLOW A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH MODERATE SHEAR AND 1000-1500
J/KG CAPE, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE. A SECONDARY
WAVE AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY NIGHT MAY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH ADDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS.
TEMPERATURES WARM ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES BY
TO THE NORTH. EVEN WITH STRONGER WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
DECENT MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION, WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SHOULD SUPPRESS ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE
90S NEAR AND WEST OF I-90.
SUNDAY MAY BE A DAY TO KEEP AN EYE ON WE A WAVE TRACKS BY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER AND A WEAKER SUB TROPICAL LIKE WAVE DRIFTS NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. WITH ANOTHER DAY EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S AND
SOME WEAK FORCING ALOFT, WE COULD SEE A FEW STORMS DEVELOP. FOR NOW
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AND THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST HAS SOME AGREEMENT AND MAY ARRIVE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL MONDAY INT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD. BESIDES A
DISSIPATING CUMULUS FIELD THIS EVENING, EXPECT MAINLY LIGHTER
WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN ALONG OUR WATERWAYS AND A FEW LOW SPOTS.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD IT INTO THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME SO KEPT THE MENTION OUT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...05
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page