215
FXUS63 KFSD 191715
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1115 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF CALMER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND WELL INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH TODAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 MPH ON SATURDAY.
- AS THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY ARRIVES, NEAR TO RECORD WARMTH MAY
BECOME POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MOISTURE TO A MINIMUM ACROSS
THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. A WAVE WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, BUT FOR NOW THE MAIN EFFECTS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND A
WIND SHIFT TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25-30 MPH
TODAY, THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THIS RAPID RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING MILD TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE AREA, EVEN
WITH THE RELATIVELY COLD START TO THE MORNING. WITH ONLY A LULL IN
THE WINDS THIS EVENING BEFORE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER AND WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH MILDER AND ONLY
SEEM THEM FALL INTO THE 20S TONIGHT.
SATURDAY WILL BE A BREEZY DAY AS THE WAVE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH.
GUSTS SHOULD BE ABOUT 25-35 MPH WITH THE STRONGER WINDS NORTH OF I-
90. WHILE SOME COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.
SUNDAY WILL SEE RETURN FLOW SET UP WITH A CONTINUATION OF NEAR TO A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WAVE WILL MOVE BY ON MONDAY, WHICH
INCREASES WESTERLY FLOW WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A SOLID 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY, LIKELY SUPPORT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL
AS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. SOME HINTS OF SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON CHRISTMAS DAY,
BUT NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25 KNOTS AT
TIMES.
A PASSING SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT.
WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SNOW MAY BE
POSSIBLE IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN COMPLETELY SATURATE. LOW
CONFIDENCE LEADS TO ONLY A PROB30 MENTION AT HON/FSD. BEHIND THE
FRONT, WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST TOWARDS THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE
WITH VFR CEILINGS PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...DUX
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