754
FXUS63 KFSD 062300
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
500 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ON SATURDAY,
WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE (30-40%) OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF
SNOW MAINLY OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO NEARBY PARTS OF
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.
- UNCERTAINTY IN TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING AND THE TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL MEAN SNOWFALL CHANCES AND AMOUNTS MAY BE
ADJUSTED AS WE GET CLOSER TO SATURDAY. MAKE SURE TO KEEP UP
TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST!
- MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS BY SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW MORE SINGLE
DIGIT WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING BEFORE WE SEE
A WARMING TREND THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
AFTER A WINDY MORNING TODAY, WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED AND WILL CONTINUE
TO GRADUALLY LESSEN INTO THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. A FEW SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
I-29 THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, BUT A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD PREVENT MOST OF THIS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. OTHERWISE,
SKIES SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE LOW-40S FOR MORNING LOWS TOMORROW. A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE DAY TOMORROW,
BRINGING SOME CLOUDS WITH IT AND A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SPRINKLE
HERE OR THERE MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD
COVER, SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND
IOWA WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-40S TO LOW-50S. HIGHS IN
THE MID-50S TO LOW-60S CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COMES ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER-
LEVEL WAVE DIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PHASES WITH ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM
DEVELOPS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE 30S, AND WHERE EXACTLY THESE
TEMPERATURES END UP AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS WILL DETERMINE WHAT TYPE
FALLS IN YOUR LOCATION. CURRENTLY, THE BEST CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING WILL BE NORTH OF I-90 AND
ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WITH THAT, THE BEST CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW AROUND A 30-40% OF AT
LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW IN THESE LOCATIONS, WITH A LESS THAN 30%
CHANCE OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
FARTHER SOUTHEAST, THERE WILL BE MORE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST
RAIN WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. TIMING-WISE, THIS AREA OF
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER AND PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, EXITING OUT
OF NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BY THE LATE-MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONGST GUIDANCE WITH
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE GFS AND AND EC AI
MODELS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE TRACK, WHILE THE EC
AND CANADIAN HAVE THE MORE NORTHERLY SOLUTION. IF THE FARTHER
SOUTH TRACK VERIFIES, THERE WILL BE GREATER UNCERTAINTY WITH
PRECIPITATION TYPES DUE TO THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY BE WARMER THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO ACROSS THE AREA. SO
BOTTOM LINE, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
FORECAST, SO BE SURE TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST ONE!
ADDING TO THE COMPLICATIONS, GUIDANCE IS ALSO STARTING TO HONE IN ON
A SECONDARY PUSH OF PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE COOLER WITH THIS, SO TRENDS
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS THIS SECONDARY WAVE COULD BRING SNOW A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE FIRST WAVE. JUST ANOTHER THING TO KEEP
AN EYE ON! WHAT'S MORE CERTAIN IS MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES MOVING IN
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS DROPPING TO
THE TEENS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS COULD DROP TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS, ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. A WARM-UP IS EXPECTED
INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 50S (AND EVEN
SOME 60S) BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 458 PM CST THU NOV 6 2025
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME HINTS IN A FEW OF THE
MODELS THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE MORNING FRIDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE.
OTHERWISE WINDS WILL DIMINISH, THEN BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...08
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