933
FXUS63 KFSD 160559
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1259 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONTINUED AREAS OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW MAY RESULT IN SLICK
SPOTS AND BRIEF DROPS IN VISIBILITY INTO THE REST OF THIS
MORNING, SO CONTINUE TO USE EXTRA CAUTION ON THE ROADS.
- WITH BREEZY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH THIS MORNING, WIND CHILLS
DOWN TO-20F TO -30F ARE EXPECTED. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE AREA EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER THROUGH 11 AM.
- OUR NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS,
BUT SOME FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET MAY MIX IN AND CAUSE MINOR
ICING CONCERNS.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
WIND CHILLS ARE ON TRACK TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE TEENS AND
NEGATIVE 20S THIS MORNING, COLDEST OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE WE
COULD SEE WIND CHILL VALUES AS LOW AS -30. DID EXPAND THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY FARTHER WEST AS CONFIDENCE IN WIND CHILL VALUES
REACHING DOWN TO -25 OR BELOW HAS INCREASED, AND IT NOW INCLUDES ALL
AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO DURING THE ADVISORY WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH (LOCALLY UP TO 30 MPH EAST OF I-29).
MAKE SURE TO BUNDLE UP BEFORE YOU HEAD OUT AND ABOUT TODAY! WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE COLD WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO
THE LOW 20S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. TOMORROW NIGHT WILL
BE QUITE COLD ONCE AGAIN, BUT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS EXPECTED
THE WIND CHILL WON'T STRAY TOO FAR FROM THE AIR TEMPERATURES,
WHICH WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO ONCE
AGAIN.
OUR NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION (WAA) STRENGTHENS ALOFT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD START OUT AS
SNOW AS IT MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WARM-NOSE DEVELOPING IN THE
MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND THIS WILL
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION. SNOW MAY CHANGE
TO SLEET AND THEN POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WARM. HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN MIXES IN WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND HOW FAST IT WARMS. IF IT REMAINS QUITE
COLD, ANY SNOWFLAKES THAT MELT IN THE WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY
REFREEZE BEFORE HITTING THE SURFACE AND THUS BE SLEET. THE
REFREEZING PROCESS MAY BE AIDED BY EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS SOME
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A FAIRLY DEEP DRY LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
IF THE LOW-LEVELS WARM QUICKER, THAN FREEZING RAIN MAY BE MORE
LIKELY THAN SLEET. OF COURSE, IF IT WARMS TOO QUICKLY, THEN
FREEZING RAIN WOULD BE BRIEF AND PLAIN RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
PRECIPITATION TYPE. ALL THAT SAID, A LIGHT GLAZE TO A COUPLE
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF ICE APPEARS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS, THOUGH
THE EXACT LOCATIONS WHERE THIS OCCURS REMAINS UNCERTAIN. SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT, GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN MAR 15 2026
THE BLIZZARD PERSISTS THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED UP
TO 35-55 MPH, WITH ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. SNOW
CONTINUES TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. WITH THE WINDS IN PLACE, BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS EVEN THOUGH WINDS WILL BE SLOWLY WANING THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FEW WEAK SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN A BIT MORE. THOUGH THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE DRYING OUT SO IT
WILL BE A SHORT WINDOW FOR THIS SNOW SHOWER POSSIBILITY. LOCALLY
LOWERED VISIBILITY WOULD BE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS. WITH
LOCATIONS GENERALLY WEST OF I-29 SEEING CONDITIONS BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE, HAVE DECIDED TO EXPIRE THE BLIZZARD WARNING EARLY AT 7 PM
THIS EVENING FOR MOST LOCATIONS WEST OF I-29. HOWEVER, DID ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THIS ARE DUE TO CONTINUED BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS. THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FROM 7 PM TO 1 AM. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH CONTINUED BREEZY WINDS IN
PLACE, WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO THE -20F TO -30F RANGE, WITH THE
COLDEST WIND CHILLS COMING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA. THUS A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AREA AND IS IN EFFECT FROM
1 AM TO 11 AM MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE A COLD DAY ACROSS THE AREA AS SURFACE
RIDGING BEGINS TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH A STEEPER
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE, GENERALLY NEAR AND EAST OF I-29, WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST IN THIS AREA THOUGH ON A DECLINING TREND. WITH A
COLD HIGH IN PLACE, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH
FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW 20S, COLDEST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE THE DEEPEST SNOW PACK IS. DESPITE THE
WEAKENING WINDS, WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN IN THE POSITIVE AND
NEGATIVE TEENS ACROSS THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS ON
TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN DOWNWIND SIDE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) STRENGTHENING
ALOFT. THIS WAA ALSO LOOKS TO BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH
IT. WITH THE WAA INCREASING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT,
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE MIXED. IT LOOKS TO BEGIN AS MAINLY SNOW AND
TRANSLATE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THERE COULD BE AN SMALL MIXED
PRECIPITATION ZONE WHERE SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY BE
POSSIBLE. AFTER THIS SMALL TRANSITION ZONE, PRECIPITATION WILL TURN
TO ALL RAIN. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATIONS AND PRECIPITATION
TYPES BUT THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A BROAD 20-60% CHANCE FOR LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF A HURON, SOUTH DAKOTA TO SIOUX FALLS, SOUTH
DAKOTA, TO STORM LAKE, IOWA LINE TO EXCEED ONE INCH OF SNOW.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHWEST
FLOW REGIME OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THUS, DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO NEAR SEASONABLE TO WARM WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS 40S, 50S, 60S, AND EVEN INTO THE 70S. THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COME ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT THIS
TIME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2026
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE WINDING DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST TO
START THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES, WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE REST OF
NORTHWEST IOWA EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO END THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ071.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR SDZ067-
070-071.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SDZ039-
040-054>056-061-062-066-067-070-071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
SDZ038>040-050-052>070.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MNZ098.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097.
IA...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR IAZ001-
012-020-031.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR IAZ002-003-
013-014-021-022-032.
NE...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ014.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR NEZ013-
014.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ013-
014.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ013.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...SAMET
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