377
FXUS63 KFSD 142325
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
525 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL RESULT IN PATCHY DRIFTING OF
THE FRESH POWDERY SNOW. WATCH FOR POSSIBLE MELT-REFREEZE AS
SUN WARMS PAVED SURFACES THIS AFTERNOON. ENHANCED SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALONG/EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT MAY LOCALLY REDUCE VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW AS WINDS
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH INTO THE EVENING.
- QUIETER CONDITIONS WITH MILD TEMPERATURES MONDAY-WEDNESDAY,
THOUGH FRESH SNOWPACK MAY IMPACT HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES
WARM.
- WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WILL BE THE NEXT SYSTEM WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS ACROSS THE AREA. MORE OF A WIND
THREAT THAN PRECIPITATION THREAT BUT IF ANY SNOW CAN FALL WITH
THE COLD SURGE, BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WINDS
POTENTIALLY GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING, WITH PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE. WITH
SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON SOME DRIFTING AND REFREEZING ON WARMER ROAD
SURFACES WILL BE POSSIBLE, CREATING UNEXPECTED SLICK SPOTS AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE WARMER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE VERY MILD AIR BUILD IN JUST
OFF THE SURFACE, WITH SNOW COVER SLOWING THE HEATING AT THE SURFACE.
STILL MUCH MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S EACH DAY, THE COOLER
READINGS OVER THE DEEPER SNOWPACK. A FEW 50+ DEGREE READINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD IF THE SNOW CAN MELT. AN ABUNDANCE OF
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS MONDAY MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF STRATUS IN CENTRAL/WESTERN NE MAY ADVECT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND BRING SOME IFR CONDITIONS TO THE AREA AND
FURTHER LIMIT THE WARMING POTENTIAL.
A QUICK WAVE WILL MOVE BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY, SWINGING A COLD
FRONT SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT THE NEXT MORE POTENT WAVE WILL FOLLOW
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BRING SOUTHERLY FLOW BACK QUICKLY DURING THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST AROUND 35 MPH AT
TIMES. THIS MAY LIMIT HIGHS A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA RECOVERS
FROM THE COOLER AIR MASS. STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S.
THIS MORE POTENT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO ND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DEEPEN,
THEN SHIFT RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST INTO MN THURSDAY MORNING. THE TIMING IS
A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE COLD AIR AND VERY STRONG
WINDS COME BARRELING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS, THEN FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WITH THE CURRENT SNOWPACK NOT BLOWABLE AFTER A
FEW MILD DAYS WE WILL NEED SOME NEW SNOW LEADING INTO THIS COLD
SURGE AND STRONG WINDS TO GET ANY BLOWING SNOW. REGARDLESS, WIND
GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH APPEAR FAIRLY LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND THIS PATTERN COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER HIGH WIND WARNING.
KEEPING UP WITH THIS FAST MOVING PATTERN, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BECOME REESTABLISHED ON FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL. THEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, BUT FOR NOW NOT LOOKING LIKE A STRONG COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS EVENING BUT STRONGER WINDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE
BUFFALO RIDGE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THESE WINDS COULD EXCEED 35 KNOTS AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO
SOME BLOWING SNOW.THANKFULLY, THIS WILL STAY CLEAR OF ALL TAF SITES.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) AT FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AT KFSD AND KSUX.
THE OTHER COMPONENT TO THIS EVENING IS LOW LEVEL STRATUS SITTING AT
MVFR/IFR LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS
STRATUS IS SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
THE STRATUS COULD IMPACT KFSD AND KSUX BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN A TAF. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.
WINDS WILL BECOME MUCH LIGHTER FOR THE DAY TOMORROW OUT OF THE WEST
WITH SPEEDS OF ABOUT 5 KNOTS. THESE LIGHT WINDS WILL FINISH OUT THE
TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...MEYERS
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