493
FXUS63 KFSD 200918
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
318 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH OR SURPASS RECORD VALUES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
INCLUDING CHRISTMAS DAY.
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR HOLIDAY TRAVEL, BUT SOME
AREAS NORTH OF I-90 COULD BE BRUSHED BY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.
- OCCASIONAL BREEZIER DAYS WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IN
SNOW-FREE AREAS, MAINLY FOCUSED TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL SD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
TODAY-SUNDAY NIGHT: WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL FLUCTUATE FROM A
FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. EVEN WITH THIS
COOL FRONT, HOWEVER, LIMITED SNOW COVER AND DECENT MIXING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS FROM NEAR FREEZING TOWARD
HIGHWAY 14 AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO MID 40S IN SOUTH- CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH INTO THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP
OFF TONIGHT WITH A PASSING SURFACE RIDGE, FOLLOWED BY SOUTH
WINDS BECOMING EQUALLY GUSTY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH DAYTIME
HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER, MOST NOTICEABLY IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND A LACK OF SNOW
COVER EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE COULD PUSH READINGS INTO THE
MID 30S.
CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE
MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN SD/CENTRAL MN COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL-SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. CANNOT
RULE OUT A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX IN SOME AREAS NORTHEAST OF
SIOUX FALLS, BUT A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER BELOW 8KFT LOOKS TO
LIMIT CHANCES TO SPOTTY SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY-FRIDAY: MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO DOMINATE THE
MID-LATTER PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AND ASSOCIATED LOW-MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE UPPER ECHELON (90TH PERCENTILE OR
HIGHER) OF SEASONAL CLIMATOLOGY, PEAKING LATE CHRISTMAS EVE
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY NEAR THE MAX OF CLIMATOLOGY. SOME VARIANCE
IN TIMING OF A LATE WEEK WAVE COULD IMPACT HOW LONG THE WARMTH
LINGERS, BUT FOR NOW WE ARE LOOKING AT NEAR RECORD TO POSSIBLY
RECORD-SETTING HIGHS ON CHRISTMAS EVE (BETTER CHANCE WEST OF
I-29) AND CHRISTMAS DAY (BETTER CHANCE ALONG/EAST OF I-29). THE
CURRENT RECORD HIGHS ARE AS FOLLOWS:
DECEMBER 24:
KFSD: 56/2023
KSUX: 62/1889
KHON: 51/1907
KMHE: 51/2011
DECEMBER 25:
KFSD: 50/1959
KSUX: 56/1963
KHON: 56/1928
KMHE: 58/1943
RECORD WARM NIGHTS ARE ALSO WITHIN REACH, ESPECIALLY CHRISTMAS
EVE/EARLY CHRISTMAS DAY WHEN WE SEE THE MOST LIKELY NIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
THE RIDGE SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PRE-HOLIDAY
TRAVEL. MAY HAVE TO WATCH THE TIMING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LATE
WEEK WAVE, THOUGH, AS IT COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS
EVENING CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MAY SEE SOME MARGINAL LLWS AT
TIMES IF GUSTS DROP OFF EARLY THIS OVERNIGHT WHILE A STRONG LLJ
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED GUSTS, DID NOT
INCLUDE MENTION AT ANY SITES.
STILL ANTICIPATING ISOLATED SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, BUT
BELIEVE COVERAGE AND IMPACTS WILL BE LIMITED TO DUE VERY DRY SUB
CLOUD LAYER. THEREFORE, HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION FOR KHON AND
KFSD IN A PROB30 GROUP. GREATEST CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP WOULD BE
NORTH OF I-90 AND INTO NORTHWESTERN IA.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...SG
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