517
FXUS63 KFSD 312015
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
215 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD. ANY WET SURFACES MAY
REFREEZE RESULTING IN PATCHY SLICK SPOTS.
- SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MINIMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CST WED DEC 31 2025
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT: COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHARPLY FALLING TEMPERATURES WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS SETTLING INTO THE MID TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY, ANY WET SURFACES MAY SEE A REFREEZE
AND RESULT IN PATCHY SLICK SPOTS.
NEW YEARS DAY: A SPLIT OF CONDITIONS BISECTING THE REGION WITH UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW KEEPING OUR NORTHEAST HALF OF THE COVERAGE AREA
IN THE 20S AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION SNEAKING THROUGH CENTRAL MN AND
OUR SOUTHWEST HALF INFLUENCED BY BOUT OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ALLOWING
HIGHS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO WARM BACK NEAR 40. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN OUR IMMEDIATE AREA WITH A MIX OF SUN
AND CLOUDS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: NEXT SURFACE HIGH SNEAKS DOWN THROUGH THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA FRIDAY WITH MOST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 20S, A TOUCH COOLER TO THE EAST IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA. A COUPLE
OF MINOR FEATURES FOR LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE FIRST BEING
ABOUT PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
WHICH WILL AGAIN PROVIDE A SMALL BOOST TO TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS A
NON-ZERO CHANCE AT VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE SECOND BEING A VERY
FRACTURED WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH MINNESOTA THAT KEEPS
TEMPERATURES STUCK IN THE 20S FOR HIGHS AND AGAIN PROVIDES A NON-
ZERO CHANCE AT VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. IN
BOTH CASES, BOTH NBM AND LREF PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION (0.01 INCH OR GREATER) BEING LESS THAN 15% AT THIS
TIME.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES MORE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN
RETURN. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST WED DEC 31 2025
LEADING EDGE OF STRATUS DROPPING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD FROM JUST
NORTH OF A KHON TO KOTG LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE OBSERVED
BEHIND THIS LINE WITH BRIEF SUB-IFR CONDITIONS NOTED AT TIMES,
ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD BECOME LESS COMMON WITH SOUTHERN EXTENT
INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ALONG A SIMILAR LINE, WINDS TAKE ON A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION
AND PICK UP SOME GUSTINESS AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD.
BOTH OF THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED AVIATION CONCERNS SHOULD BEGIN
TO ABATE THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KALIN
AVIATION...KALIN
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