653
FXUS63 KFSD 081853
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
153 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS.
- WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO LEAD
TO ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. MAKE SURE
TO LIMIT ANY ACTIVITIES THAT COULD CREATE A SPARK!
- BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL APPROACH
RECORD TERRITORY.
- A RETURN TO AN ACTIVE PATTERN BY NEXT WEEK WILL LEAD TO
MULTIPLE RAIN CHANCES (30%-70%) THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, HIGHEST
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 152 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
DRY CONDITIONS BENEATH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN
TO THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA, STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) AND
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). THE LLJ AND WAA WILL STEEPEN MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES, RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY BETWEEN 700 TO
1,200 J/KG OF CAPE. THUS, THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE NOSE OF
THE LLJ. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES WILL BE SUFFICIENT AT 35 TO 40
KNOTS. THE LINGERING UNCERTAINTY IS WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS COME IN WITH A FURTHER EAST SOLUTION. SHOULD
THIS SOLUTION PAN OUT, THEN LITTLE TO NO STORMS WOULD DEVELOP IN THE
FORECAST AREA. THINK THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE BROAD WAA
IN PLACE WILL DEVELOP A FEW STORMS IN THE CWA, MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
IOWA THIS EVENING AND NIGHT. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PING PONG BALLS. SHOULD
SEE STORMS PUSH EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 5 TO 6 AM.
FRIDAY WILL SEE WARMING HIGHS UP TO THE 70S AND 80S THANKS TO THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WAA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRENGTHENING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH. WITH THE TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS IN PLACE, BREEZY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
AND NIGHT, THIS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES VERY MILD, WITH LOWS ONLY
FALLING TO THE 60S OVERNIGHT. THESE WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
NEAR OR MAY BREAK WARM LOW TEMPERATURES RECORDS.
THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON SATURDAY, RESULTING IN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE 80S ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEING HIGHS
POTENTIALLY REACH 90F. THESE WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR RECORDS
CURRENTLY. COULD SEE TEMPERATURES CREEP TOWARDS RECORD TERRITORY IF
HIGHS CONTINUE TO WARM HEADING INTO SATURDAY. THE HEAT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY, YIELDING
ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOWEST HUMIDITY AND
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO LOOK TO RESIDE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO FALL BELOW
25%. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING IN THIS AREA THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SHUNTED A BIT
EASTWARD. LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER WILL SEE THE
STRONGEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH. ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS UP
TO ABOUT 45 MPH IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN OFFSET OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
LOWEST HUMIDITY. FUELS CONTINUE TO REMAIN GREEN, THOUGH CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY CURE. THAT SAID, THE OFFSET OF HIGHEST WINDS AND LOWEST
HUMIDITY ALONG WITH THE MAINLY GREEN FUELS WILL KEEP FIRE DANGER
CAPPED AT HIGH. FIRE DANGER WILL COME TO AN END SATURDAY EVENING AS
HUMIDITY INCREASES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONTINUING ANOTHER NIGHT OF MILD LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN COME CLOSE TO RECORD
WARM LOWS.
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY THOUGH NOT AS WARM AS
A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO VARY ON HOW QUICKLY
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY
BUT MUCH WEAKER THAN SATURDAY'S WINDS. HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWER,
THOUGH ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS, SO SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
REMAINS POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE WEST COAST ON MONDAY
BEFORE BEGINNING TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT VARIANCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS WAVE BUT THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A CLEARER PICTURE WITH THE CLOSED
LOW TRANSITIONING TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL ALSO PUSH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN TO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLES SHOW A 30-70% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TOTALS TO
EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN, TEMPERATURES WILL TREND TO NEAR SEASONABLE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW SIN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE THIS MORNING. THE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SPRINKLES WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING AND NIGHT. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF STORMS.
NORTHWEST IOWA HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCES (20-40%) FOR SEEING STORMS.
THAT SAID, HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF RAIN IN KSUX'S TAF BUT WILL
MONITOR TRENDS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN ANY
STORM THAT FORMS. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. IF FOG WERE TO FORM, IT LOOKS
TO REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF ALL TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW MORNING AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN TO END
THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...MEYERS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page