922
FXUS63 KFSD 250526
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1226 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FIRE WEATHER REMAINS THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH VERY DRY FUELS, WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS,
AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY ONWARD, ALTHOUGH EACH DAY WILL POSE SOME
THREAT.
- NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND, BUT TEMPERATURES REMAIN QUITE VARIABLE. PROBABILITIES
FOR MORE THAN 0.10" OF RAIN REMAIN LESS THAN 20% THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK LATE THIS EVENING. AFTER A QUIET
OVERNIGHT TIMEFRAME WITH LOWS DROPPING TO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ALL THE WAY TO 70S TO LOW 80S BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS WILL ONLY MOISTEN TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S, RESULTING IN LOW HUMIDITY VALUES DOWN TO 25-35%. THE LOW
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
WITH DRY FUELS THAT ARE IN PLACE. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT THOUGH
AS LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN LOOSE. HOWEVER, IF DEEPER
MIXING CAN BE ACHIEVED, THEN STRONGER WINDS MAY BE POSSIBLE. AS OF
NOW, WINDS WOULD HAVE TO ACHIEVE UP TO OR EXCEED THE 90TH PERCENTILE
OF GUIDANCE. THUS, HAVE NOT STRAYED FROM THE NBM AT THIS TIME AS
THIS PROBABILITY IS 10% OR LESS. AND FIRE DANGER WILL COME TO AN END
BY THE EVENING AS NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION OCCURS.
A COLD FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL DELIVER A SHOT OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION (CAA) AND STRONGER WINDS WITH IT. THESE WINDS WILL BE
STRONGEST IN THE MORNING TIMEFRAME BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER, ONLY WARMING TO
ABOUT 50F TO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO BE HIGHER BUT WITH REMAINING DRY FUELS IN PLACE, ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT, CONTINUING ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL ALSO CONTINUE CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER AS WELL. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO PICK UP ON A
TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE WESTERN CONUS AROUND TUESDAY
NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLES GENERALLY AGREE WITH THESE TRENDS SO
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THIS COULD BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
MILD AND DRY AIR SURGES NORTH IN THE LOW LEVELS TONIGHT AND WILL SET
UP A VERY MILD DAY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT, GENERALLY MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN
THE 70S WITH A FEW 80S SOUTH OF I-90.
A SYSTEM SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD ONLY
BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR HIGHWAY 14 MAY ALLOW FOR A
FEW SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT AMOUNTS WOULD BE VERY LIGHT.
ALSO SOME VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY NEAR NORTHEAST NE INTO
PARTS OF NORTHWEST IA THAT COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS. CURRENTLY
INSTABILITY IS TOO WEAK, BUT IF ENOUGH CAN SNEAK IN AROUND KSUX WE
COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT COULD DEVELOP WITH
A FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND AND DEEP/DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER.
OTHERWISE, THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THIS WAVE WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT
WILL DIVE SOUTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT A VERY MILD
AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH THURSDAY MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S. THE INITIAL FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ON THURSDAY MORNING AND
THE SECONDARY STRONGER FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS LIKELY 30
TO 40 MPH.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES COOL QUITE A BIT BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM, SO LOOKING
AT HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW STAYS IN PLACE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY LITTLE CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
WAVE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK, BUT FAR ENOUGH OUT NOT
TOO CONCERNED OR CONFIDENT, BUT SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
OTHERWISE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 60S ON SATURDAY AND 70S SUNDAY
INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARDS THE END OF
THE NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET (LLJ) WILL STRENGTHEN ALOFT AND RESULT
IN SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS) GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-90. ANY
LLWS WILL DIMINISH BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BEFORE BACKING TO SOUTHEASTERLY TO FINISH OUT THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE NEAR CRITICAL TO POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY,
BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY SO. THE 90TH PERCENTILE WIND GUSTS STILL REMAIN
MAINLY BELOW 20 KNOTS EVERYWHERE. THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS WILL YIELD AN AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT. LOOKING AT THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR TEMPERATURES AND 10TH
PERCENTILE FOR DEW POINTS WOULD YIELD RH IN THE TEENS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. FOR NOW NOT EXPECTING ANY HEADLINES GIVEN LACK OF
CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS WILL MEET OR EXCEED 25 MPH, BUT COULD PROVE TO
BE FAIRLY CLOSE GIVEN VERY DRY FUELS AS WELL AS WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY WILL SEE A DOUBLE FRONT STRUCTURE MOVE THROUGH, WITH THE
INITIAL MILDER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN THE MORNING THEN THE
STRONGER COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF WIND
TO SUPPORT CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS, JUST A MATTER OF
HOW QUICKLY TEMPERATURES FALL IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CAUSE THE
RH TO INCREASE.
FRIDAY SHOULD SEE NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 15 TO 20 MPH AND
AFTERNOON RH FALL TO 25 TO 35 PERCENT.
WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AND GUSTS OF 20 TO 30
MPH ALONG WITH AFTERNOON RH OF 20 TO 30 PERCENT SHOULD BRING
CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS REMAIN VERY LOW.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...MEYERS
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...MEYERS
FIRE WEATHER...08
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