520
FXUS63 KFSD 290003
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
603 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON, EXITING THE
AREA TO OUR EAST BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
LOOK TO BE AROUND 6-12 INCHES MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A
YANKTON TO SIOUX FALLS TO SLAYTON LINE, WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS NEARING A FOOT IN PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE LOOK TO BE BETWEEN 3-6 INCHES. A
GLAZE OF ICE IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-90 INTO THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND US HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
- EXPECT DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL THROUGH THE WEEKEND; TRAVEL WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BE SURE TO CHECK ROAD
CONDITIONS BEFORE TRAVELING, AND BE PREPARED TO ADJUST YOUR
PLANS. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL, KEEP A PREPAREDNESS KIT IN YOUR
CAR.
- MUCH COLDER AIR SPREADS IN BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUES MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE LOWS DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND
CHILLS BELOW 0F.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. CURRENTLY, A BAND
OF SNOW STRETCHES FROM NORTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST
IOWA AND IS MOVING EASTWARD, AIDED BY WAA AT 850 MB. SNOW INITIALLY
HAD SOME TROUBLE REACHING THE SURFACE WITH THIS BAND NORTH OF I-90
AS IT HAD SOME DRY AIR TO BATTLE WITH, BUT FOR THE MOST PART SNOW IS
NOW REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAND. AS THIS BAND PUSHES
EASTWARD THROUGH THIS EVENING, THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SOME OF THE
MORE MODERATE TO HEAVIER SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT; HOWEVER, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW ADDITIONAL WEAK BANDING THAT COULD DEVELOP MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY OR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY-20
DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT BECAUSE
IF ANY OF THESE BANDS DO DEVELOP OVER OUR AREA, A WESTWARD EXPANSION
MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE WINTER STORM WARNING INTO MORE OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ALSO DURING THIS LULL IN SNOWFALL, THERE COULD
BE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WE BRIEFLY LOSE SATURATION IN THE DGZ
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-90 INTO THE HIGHWAY-20 CORRIDOR. THIS COULD RESULT
IN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE, BUT WIDESPREAD ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME, THOUGH TRENDS WILL ALSO BE MONITORED INTO THIS
EVENING.
THE LULL IN HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL END LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE
ROCKIES, WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND LIFTING NORTHEASTWARDS. THESE TWO FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION IN TANDEM WITH EACH OTHER WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER INCREASE IN
SNOW ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF FAR-
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA
HEADING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. THESE LOCATIONS ARE STILL EXPECTING
TO SEE THE MOST SNOW, WITH ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY TOMORROW EVENING TOTALING AROUND 6-12 INCHES. STILL CAN'T RULE
OUT A FEW AREAS EXCEEDING 12", WITH NBM PROBABILITIES SHOWING A 30-
60%+ CHANCE OF THIS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A SIOUX CITY TO SPENCER, IA
LINE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY,
GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
SNOW SHOULD BE MOSTLY OVER IN THOSE AREAS BY THE TIME WINDS PICK UP,
LEADING TO PATCHY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. AN UPTICK IN WINDS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW IS
ENDING, SO THIS COULD ALSO CAUSE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW CONCERNS.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD IS LOOKING QUITE COLD WITH LOWS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH WIND CHILLS LIKELY
DROPPING BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AS OF NOW, SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST OF THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AIR
TEMPERATURE-WISE, WITH LOWS POTENTIALLY DROPPING BELOW ZERO MAINLY
ALONG HIGHWAY-14. WE LOOK TO STAY UNSEASONABLY COLD THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 602 PM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
A WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE REGION THIS PERIOD. CURRENTLY
THERE IS A MIX OF MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. THE BAND OF
SNOW IS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 WITH A BREAK IN THE SNOW
FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. THE BREAK WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND
MIDNIGHT AND SNOW BEGINS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE CONTAINING ALL OF THE
WFO. SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FOR THE EARLY HOURS OF
SATURDAY MORNING. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INCREASED SNOWFALL RATES IS
EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY 60 IN IOWA AND MINNESOTA. SNOW WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR
AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA, INTO THE KSUX AREA, AND ALONG
HIGHWAY 20 SOUTHWARD. VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, A LIGHT
GLAZE OF 0.01-0.02" OF ICE.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY SOUTHEASTERLY GUSTING TO AROUND 15 KTS, AROUND
20 KTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY AND
BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY, THEN NORTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AFTER
DAY BREAK WINDS INCREASE AGAIN WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 KTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS COULD LEAD TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
SDZ055-056-062-066-067-069>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR SDZ038-039-
050-052>054-057>061-063>065-068.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
SDZ040.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR
NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...AJP
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