657
FXUS63 KFSD 172328
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
628 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY, 10 TO 20
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY AS A JET MAX
TRACKS BY TO THE NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER. GUSTS OF 35 TO 45
MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE TONIGHT, WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR THE HIGHER WINDS THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL BRING MILDER LOWS TONIGHT, GENERALLY IN
THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, WITH HIGHS SUNDAY WARMING INTO THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S, WARMEST WEST OF THE JAMES. AS THIS JET MAX SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA, A WEAK FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE AREA AND WILL HELP TO
DIMINISH THE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MORE
LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S, BUT NOT AS COLD AS THIS
MORNING. WITH A SOMEWHAT SLOW RECOVERY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH COOLER AND CLOSE TO THE SEASONAL
NORMALS IN THE LOWER 60S.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND BRINGS WARMER
READINGS BACK INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE 65 TO 70
DEGREES.
A QUICK MOVING TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND BRING A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR VERY LIGHT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST, BUT THE
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES WILL BE IN NORTHWEST IA.
VERY MILD AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS VERY LIKELY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EACH DAY. WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON A FEW OF THE DAYS OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S, ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WILL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
AS FUELS CONTINUE TO CURE AND HARVESTING ACTIVITIES PEAK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KNOTS. ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 35 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
DESPITE THE BREEZY SURFACE WINDS, SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS)
IS EXPECTED DUE TO WINDS AT ABOUT 2,000FT ALOFT STRENGTHENING TO 40+
KNOTS. THE LLWS WILL WANE TOMORROW MORNING. A BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
INTO THE AREA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO ABUT 25
KNOTS. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY, WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND BE
MUCH WEAKER IN MAGNITUDE. WINDS OVERALL WILL WEAKEN TO END THE TAF
PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...MEYERS
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