885
FXUS63 KFSD 071946
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
146 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST INTO AT LEAST MID WEEK WITH
MOST LOCATIONS 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
- MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY AHEAD, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH
CHANCES (50%-80%) OF HIGHS TOPPING 60 DEGREES ALONG MUCH OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. A FEW RECORD HIGHS COULD BE TIED OR
BROKEN. LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS IN THESE VERY WARM
AREAS MAY AGAIN RESULT IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER.
- MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER, A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN/SNOW CHANCES BY
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 144 PM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TODAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. OVERALL NOT MUCH EXPECTED FROM THIS OTHER THAN SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THE EVENING
AND THEN BECOME NORTHWEST, BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VERY MILD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S, ABOUT 10-
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG IN
CENTRAL SD LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD
TO A VERY MILD SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S EAST
OF I-29 AND THE 50S NEAR AND WEST. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON
THE LOWER SIDE WITH THE LIGHT WINDS AND A COLD GROUND.
ALL INFORMATION CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS MONDAY BRING THE WARMEST
OF THE DAYS UPCOMING. WITH A DECENT MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME QUESTION MARKS HOWEVER. THE FIRST WILL BE HOW
DENSE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL BE AND THE SECOND
WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH. AS FOR CLOUD
COVER, THE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AND WILL
LIMIT WARMING A BIT, BUT STRONG MECHANICAL MIXING WILL LIKELY
OVERCOME MOST OF THE NEGATIVE EFFECTS OF THE CLOUD COVER. AS FOR THE
FRONT, THE LATEST MODELS ARE A TOUCH FASTER WITH THE FRONT AND THE
WARMER READINGS OF 60 OR GREATER APPEAR AS THOUGH THEY WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS CLOSER TO THE MISSOURI RIVER AND NEARBY
LOCATIONS IN NORTHWEST IA.
BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY SHOULD BE MILD AND DRY, POSSIBLY A TOUCH
BREEZY IN THE MORNING.
THE NEXT WAVE OF INTEREST WILL COME WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
BULK OF THE FORCING FROM THIS WAVE WILL COME THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW LOOKING LIKE A RAIN OR SNOW THREAT
WITH THE LOWEST COUPLE HUNDRED FEET DETERMINING THE TYPE.
WHILE COLD AIR IS NOT EXPECTED BEHIND THIS WAVE, A COOLER REGIME
WILL SETTLE IN, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN MARGINAL AGREEMENT FOR
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY, ALL TRYING TO CARVE OUT A TROUGH IN THE
WESTERN U.S. SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE NORTHERN
STREAM ENERGY AND THE SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY, SO WILL NEED TO SEE
HOW THIS PATTERN CHANGE EVOLVES AND HOW THE MODELS HANDLE IT BEFORE
ANY CONFIDENCE IN EXPECTED WEATHER. FOR EXAMPLE THE 12Z GFS HAS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE
12Z ECMWF HAS WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE CONTINUED
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CST SAT FEB 7 2026
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME MFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL SD TOWARDS KHON LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT ABOUT A 50-70% CHANCE FOR THESE
MVFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS GUST TO
25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASE AROUND SUNSET
AND TURN MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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