422
FXUS63 KFSD 242336
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
536 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20 AND -35 WILL BE POSSIBLE,
COLDEST IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA.
- TEMPERATURES RISE SLOWLY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH NO
MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. HOWEVER, LIGHT SNOW (LESS
THAN 2") MAY BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST.
THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SLOWLY BRING WARMER AIR NORTHEAST,
BUT HIGHS ARE STILL ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT: TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET, BUT WILL BE
TEMPERED BY INCREASING MID-LVL CLOUDS AND A PERSIST SOUTHERLY
SURFACE WIND. AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK, WE'LL WATCH FOR LOWER
CEILINGS AND A VERY LOW RISK FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
SUNDAY: THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LVL TROUGH WILL BRING THE RISK FOR
FLURRIES TO VERY LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE CWA AS A COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTHEAST. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT ANY STRATUS THAT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY WILL RESIDE WITHIN A -16 TO -20C THERMAL
LAYER, SUGGESTING FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE NEARLY EVERYWHERE.
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT- MONDAY: COLDER AIR RUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO MONDAY
MORNING, AND WHILE NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
MORNING, WE'LL STILL SEE LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS BELOW
ZERO BY DAYBREAK. MORE CONCERNING HOWEVER WILL BE THE RETURN OF
BREEZY TO EVEN GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
CONTINUING INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY. WHILE HOURLY TEMPERATURES MAY
STABILIZE OR BEGIN TO RISE BY DAYBREAK THE INCREASING WINDS MAY PUSH
WIND CHILL VALUES INTO ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD
OF THE CWA. THE COLDEST VALUES WILL BE ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION
AREAS OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. WARM
ADVECTION SPREADING EASTWARD MONDAY WILL AT LEAST PUSH HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE TEENS AND 20S IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY-SATURDAY: MOST OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE VERY QUIET. THE
PERSISTENCE OF SHARP NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE
PARADE OF COLD FRONTS THROUGH MID-WEEK. ONE PASSING WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE DAY. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR >0.01" OF QPF ARE QUITE
LOW (25%) AND SPREAD OVER A LARGE AREA. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SUCH
AS THE GEFS/ECE ARE HIGHER (>50%), BUT ALSO SPREAD OVER A MUCH
LARGER AREA THAN WHAT'S LIKELY TO HAPPEN. THIS IS MOST LIKELY DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION OF THE NARROW BAND. NO MATTER WHAT,
QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND SHOULDN'T RESULT IN HIGHLY IMPACTFUL
SNOW.
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE CWA REMAINS IN A FAVORED AREA FOR LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE LINGERING
BAROCLINIC ZONE. MUCH LIKE WEDNESDAY, ANY AMOUNTS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. GIVEN THE PERSISTENCE OF NORTHERLY MID-LVL FLOW, NO STRONG
WARM UP IS EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS TO 20S FAVORED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS IS PRESENT DOWN BY KSUX. WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THE VFR CONDITIONS WILL COME TO AN END BY
TOMORROW MORNING AS MVFR CEILINGS PUSH INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE BENEATH THE STRATUS WHICH COULD
ALSO DROP THE STRATUS DOWN TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TOMORROW
WHILE WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS
WILL BE CLEARING THE AREA TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...MEYERS
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