320
FXUS63 KFSD 271118
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
518 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING BETWEEN 25-35 MPH MAY LEAD TO SOME
PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGH THE MORNING
COMMUTE ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES WARMING
BACK NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- NO SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTFUL SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER, LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
THROUGH WEDNESDAY: TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING REMAIN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO. WINDS HAVE REMAINED A BIT ON THE
BREEZIER SIDE THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS - WITH NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH GUSTING TO AROUND 35 MPH. WIND CHILLS REMAIN
NEAR TO BELOW ZERO. COULD SEE SOME VERY PATCHY BLOWING SNOW THROUGH
THE MORNING COMMUTE NEAR AND ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE WITH THESE
STRONGER WINDS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WINDS
REMAIN SOMEWHAT ON THE BREEZIER SIDE DESPITE THE SURFACE HIGH BUT
STILL LIGHT OVERALL (LESS THAN 15 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25
MPH). CAA ALOFT AND NORTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP THINGS ON
THE COOLER SIDE, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S - COLDEST IN
SOUTHWESTERN MN.
SOME HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES ISOLATED FLURRIES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH SOME WEAK LIFT/F-GEN IN THE SOMEWHAT SATURATED DGZ;
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE LOW WITH DRY AIR BELOW DGZ AND GENERAL LACK OF
ANY FORCING OUTSIDE OF SOME WAA. KEPT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. WINDS
TONIGHT BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES OVERHEAD. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS, WITH WIND
CHILLS FALLING TO BELOW ZERO FOR AREAS OUTSIDE THE MO RIVER VALLEY.
FOR WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER DRY DAY EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S
ONCE AGAIN, WITH COLDER LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT - FALLING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FALL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THURSDAY: SOMEWHAT SPLIT FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO LATE WEEK WITH THE
UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE JET JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES THROUGH WESTERN SD INTO CENTRAL SD
THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SD. SURFACE BOUNDARY
ALSO STRETCHES ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL SD. FORCING LOOKS TO BE
WEAK OVERALL, WITH SOME WAA AS WELL. THIS WAVE BRINGS SOME LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES TO THE AREA, MAINLY FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL SD THROUGH
THE MO RIVER VALLEY. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE LIQUID
EQUIVALENT IS HIGH (OVER 70%) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD, WITH JUST
UNDER A 50% CHANCE FOR SIOUX CITY. PROBABILITY FOR A TENTH OF AN
INCH REMAINS VERY LOW, AT LESS THAN 10%. THEREFORE, EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN LESS THAN AN INCH AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER ONCE AGAIN - IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER, FALLING BELOW ZERO.
WIND CHILLS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING DROP TO NEAR -20
ACROSS THE US HWY 14 CORRIDOR.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE TIMING, BUT EXPECT THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LOW ACROSS CANADA TO DIVE BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST BY EARLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
ANOTHER COLD DAY, WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY/WEAK FORCING NEAR THE MO RIVER - VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY EVEN LOWER THAN THURSDAY. LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES MAY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEKEND; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON THE DETAILS (TIMING/LOCATION) DUE TO SPREAD IN THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE DATA. THAT SAID, NOT EXPECTING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AS DESPITE THE SPREAD IN DATA, ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITY FOR EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID REMAINS AROUND
AND BELOW 40% (HIGHEST FOR THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE). TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND DO BEGIN TO MODERATE TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS TO WEST AND THE AXIS SLIDES EAST INTO
TUESDAY. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, ALTHOUGH A
WEAK WAVE OR TWO COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH INCREASING MID
CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 20
TO 25 KNOTS THIS MORNING MAY LEAD TO SOME VERY PATCHY BLOWING
SNOW ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE THROUGH MID MORNING. GUSTS TAPER
DOWN THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...SG
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