221
FXUS63 KFSD 190930
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
330 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2020
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2020
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS MIGRATED INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY COLD AS 925 HPA REMAIN NEAR -20 C. HAVE SIDED
WITH COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES TODAY WITH DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS
THE REGION, BUT HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO MEAN VALUES WHERE CLOUDS WILL
INFLUENCE WARMING.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. VERY EFFICIENT ATMOSPHERE WITH DEEP
DENDRITIC LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF
FLURRIES MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH ARCTIC HIGH IN CONTROL OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2020
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO A NON-
DIURNAL WARMING TREND. APPEARS AS THICK LOW LYING STRATUS MAY WORK
NORTH TUESDAY EVENING EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. POTENTIAL FOR
DRIZZLE WITH LIFT THROUGH THE SATURATED LAYER. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED
MENTION AT THIS POINT, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA.
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO
THE REGION. WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ON IOWA, BUT
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS POINT WITH
NEAR SURFACE LAYER NEAR FREEZING.
SECOND DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY, AND LOOKS
TO HAVE A WIDER IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT, THE
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE COOLER WITH THIS SYSTEM, FAVORING SNOW.
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS WAVE AS IT INTENSIFIES WITH
STRONG JET STREAK DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS
IT WORKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. COULD
SEE A DISTURBANCE OR TWO WORK THROUGH THE REGION, BUT CONSENSUS IS
LOW AT THIS POINT AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2020
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL EXPECT
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS TO MIX DOWN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, REACHING 10 KTS OR LESS SUNDAY MORNING.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ038>040-050-
052>071.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-
089-090-097-098.
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-
020>022-031-032.
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ013-014.
SHORT TERM...BT
LONG TERM...BT
AVIATION...BP
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