511
FXUS63 KFSD 022348
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
548 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
- SCATTERED LIGHT PRECIPITATION, A MIX OF SNOW, SLEET AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN, CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATER
TONIGHT. IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR, BUT BE AWARE AS YOU HEAD
HOME THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO -15 TO -25 IN MOST LOCATIONS
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
- STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW EXPECTED THURSDAY WHICH COULD
CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MN AND
NORTHWEST IA.
- DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES
CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 220 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL OVERALL REMAIN LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT DURATION
MIXED PRECIPITATION. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT THE
LOWEST LEVELS WILL WAVER BETWEEN ALL SNOW AND OCCASIONALLY THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE SLEET AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. THE BETTER
CHANCES FOR THIS SHOULD REMAIN AND NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 AND ALSO
OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD. ONCE THIS WAVE PASSES OVERNIGHT,
COLD AIR WILL SURGE IN BEHIND WITH NORTHERLY WINDS RISING TO 15 TO
30 MPH OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND
WIND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS COLD AS THIS MORNING, AND
SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS IN MOST LOCATIONS.
MUCH DRIER AIR BUILDS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING
QUITE A BIT OF SUNSHINE WITH SOME RESIDUAL CUMULUS POSSIBLY
LINGERING AROUND. WITH THIS COLD, DRY AIR BUILDING IN,
TEMPERATURES MAY CONTINUE TO FALL A BIT THROUGH THE DAY OR
REMAIN STEADY.
THE COLDEST TIME FRAME WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE SEASON WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM ABOUT -8 TO -15 NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES VALLEY. WHEN
COUPLED WITH A LIGHT WIND THE WIND CHILLS MAY FALL AS LOW AS -20 TO
-25.
STRONG RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON THURSDAY AND SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE INTO PARTS OF
NORTHWEST IA. DEPENDING UPON HOW DEEP MIXING GETS, THE 925MB LAYER
IS INDICATING WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS, WHICH IF THESE REACH THE
SURFACE SHOULD PRODUCE SOME BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND STRUGGLES WITH MOISTURE BECOME THE THEME
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT ALTHOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT ON THESE WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WAVES IS
MARGINAL AT BEST. THE MODELS ARE COMING IN TO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT
FOR A STRONGER WAVE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK SOW ILL NEED TO
MONITOR TRENDS WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM
BEING STRONG WINDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST TUE DEC 2 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS MAINLY DUE TO LINGERING STRATUS.
TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, VFR/MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES
TO SIT OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH POCKETS OF WINTRY MIX AND
LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING. EXPECT INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF SNOW TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THINGS BEGIN TAPERING
OFF AFTER 06Z (12 AM).
FROM HERE, MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF
TUESDAY BEFORE CONDITIONS CLEAR WITH AN APPROACHING SURFACE
HIGH. OTHERWISE, WESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY
OVERNIGHT AND BREEZY TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...05
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