221  
FXUS63 KFSD 190930  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
330 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2020  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2020  
 
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING ON THE BACKSIDE OF A  
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS MIGRATED INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT TEMPERATURES  
WILL REMAIN EXTREMELY COLD AS 925 HPA REMAIN NEAR -20 C. HAVE SIDED  
WITH COOLER GUIDANCE VALUES TODAY WITH DEEP FRESH SNOW COVER ACROSS  
THE REGION, BUT HAVE SIDED CLOSER TO MEAN VALUES WHERE CLOUDS WILL  
INFLUENCE WARMING.  
 
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS SHORT WAVE MOVES FROM  
NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. VERY EFFICIENT ATMOSPHERE WITH DEEP  
DENDRITIC LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE. HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF  
FLURRIES MONDAY MORNING. MONDAY WILL BE ANOTHER COOL DAY ACROSS THE  
REGION WITH ARCTIC HIGH IN CONTROL OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST SUN JAN 19 2020  
 
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LEADING TO A NON-  
DIURNAL WARMING TREND. APPEARS AS THICK LOW LYING STRATUS MAY WORK  
NORTH TUESDAY EVENING EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER. POTENTIAL FOR  
DRIZZLE WITH LIFT THROUGH THE SATURATED LAYER. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED  
MENTION AT THIS POINT, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA.  
 
A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION ON  
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO  
THE REGION. WEDNESDAY'S SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE FOCUSED ON IOWA, BUT  
PRECIPITATION TYPE IS QUITE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN AT THIS POINT WITH  
NEAR SURFACE LAYER NEAR FREEZING.  
 
SECOND DISTURBANCE IMPACTS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY, AND LOOKS  
TO HAVE A WIDER IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS POINT, THE  
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS TO BE COOLER WITH THIS SYSTEM, FAVORING SNOW.  
WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS WAVE AS IT INTENSIFIES WITH  
STRONG JET STREAK DEVELOPING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS  
IT WORKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.  
 
NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DOMINATED WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. COULD  
SEE A DISTURBANCE OR TWO WORK THROUGH THE REGION, BUT CONSENSUS IS  
LOW AT THIS POINT AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1044 PM CST SAT JAN 18 2020  
 
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. STILL EXPECT  
GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS TO MIX DOWN OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL  
SLOWLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT, REACHING 10 KTS OR LESS SUNDAY MORNING.  
 

 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR SDZ038>040-050-  
052>071.  
 
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-  
089-090-097-098.  
 
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-  
020>022-031-032.  
 
NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ013-014.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...BT  
LONG TERM...BT  
AVIATION...BP  
 
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