546
FXUS63 KFSD 012009
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
209 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX WILL IMPACT AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 IN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY, WITH LOWER CHANCES IN
NORTHWEST IOWA AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW/SLEET WILL BE MOST
LIKELY, BUT SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA (GREGORY/CHARLES MIX
COUNTIES) COULD SEE A LIGHT GLAZE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
- STRATUS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO FRIDAY,
THEN TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT WEEK COULD BRING A COUPLE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO PARTS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY, BUT AT THIS
TIME THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS LOW
(<20%).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT: ONCE AGAIN WEAK FLOW BENEATH A WARM LAYER
ALOFT IS LEADING TO STUBBORN STRATUS WHICH APPEARS AS THOUGH IT
WILL BE HARD TO SHAKE OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD
TO LOW DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES, WITH A RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT
BUT CHILLIER THAN NORMAL DAY ON FRIDAY. MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY
WILL BE A QUICK MOVING WAVE SLIDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH NEBRASKA.
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, BUT
HIGH-RES MODELS SHOW FAIR AGREEMENT IN SPREADING A LIGHT WINTRY
MIX INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THIS WAVE.
THE WARM BUT RELATIVELY DRY LAYER ALOFT COULD INITIALLY LEAD TO
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, BUT AS THIS
LAYER COOLS, WE SHOULD SEE PRECIP TRANSITION TO SLEET AND LIGHT
SNOW RATHER QUICKLY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE/SNOW ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIGHT, WITH ONLY 10-20% PROBABILITY THAT SNOW AMOUNTS
TOP 1 INCH TOWARD THE MISSOURI RIVER.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY: THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
DOMINATED BY RELATIVELY QUIET WESTERLY FLOW WITH WARMER THAN
NORMAL 850MB TEMPERATURES. LOWER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK INTO
SATURDAY SO MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR PERSISTENCE OF STRATUS WHICH
COULD LIMIT THE START OF OUR WARMING TEMPERATURES. BEGIN TO SEE
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOP BY SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP PUSH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER AS WE BEGIN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF
2026. A WEAK WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA TUESDAY,
AND THIS COULD BRING VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA. UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THIS
WAVE PRECLUDES MAKING ADJUSTMENTS TO NBM POPS AT THIS TIME.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD: HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES, AS MODELS BEGIN
TO DIVERGE FURTHER FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE A FEW
SOLUTIONS IN THE BROADER ENSEMBLE SPECTRUM INDICATE A POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER MIDWEST, THERE
IS VERY LITTLE AGREEMENT REGARDING WHEN OR WHERE. THAT SAID, IF
YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, YOU MAY
WANT TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS THROUGH THE COMING WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
WIDESPREAD LOW MVFR-IFR STRATUS ONCE AGAIN PERSISTS ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL BE STUBBORN TO DEPART WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW.
AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF I-90 COULD SEE PATCHY FOG AND/OR A FEW
FLURRIES SQUEEZED OUT OF THE STRATUS, PRODUCING MVFR-LOCALLY IFR
VISIBILITY THROUGH SUNSET. AN ADDITIONAL WAVE WILL BRING A LOW
CHANCE FOR WINTRY MIXED PRECIPITATION (BRIEF -FZRA TRANSITIONING
TO -SN/PL) TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 ON FRIDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION
COULD IMPACT KSUX, BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER THIS TAF PERIOD ENDS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...JH
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