309
FXUS63 KFSD 261142
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
542 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BITTERLY COLD START TO TODAY WITH WIND CHILLS 20 BELOW TO
35 BELOW ZERO, BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
ZERO MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
- SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS 25 TO 40 MPH
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, STRONGEST ALONG/JUST
EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. LOCATIONS
WITH A SUSCEPTIBLE SNOWPACK WILL SEE BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW
WITH MINOR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. SIGNS POINTING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND.
- NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST. HOWEVER,
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
TODAY: LIGHT WINDS/CLEAR SKIES WITHIN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE HAVE
ALLOWED EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO. AT THESE TEMPERATURES, EVEN THE
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS BELOW 10 MPH RESULT IN WIND CHILLS 20
BELOW TO 34 BELOW ZERO. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST, SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY, BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BEGIN TO LEVEL OFF OR SLIGHTLY CLIMB AT THE SAME TIME. THIS WILL
MAINTAIN ADVISORY-LEVEL WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MID-MORNING, THOUGH LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA MAY PUSH WIND CHILLS
BEYOND 35 BELOW AT TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THE
INCREASING WINDS WILL HELP US WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS ABOVE ZERO BY LATE MORNING-MIDDAY, ON THE WAY TO HIGHS
FROM THE TEENS IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. MORNING WIND CHILLS
WILL RECOVER QUICKLY AS WELL, WITH READINGS PEAKING ABOVE ZERO
FOR MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.
AN ADDITIONAL CONCERN WITH THE INCREASING WINDS TODAY WILL BE A
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW, MAINLY FOR PARTS OF
THE COTEAU/I-29 CORRIDOR IN EAST-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, THROUGH
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE IOWA GREAT LAKES. THESE AREAS ARE
MORE LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD MOVE AROUND ANY LOOSE SNOW COVER.
AREA WEB CAMS DO NOT SHOW A DEEP SNOW-PACK IN THESE AREAS OF
STRONGER WINDS, SO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR, BUT STILL
SOMETHING FOR TRAVELERS TO WATCH OUT FOR. WINDS SHOULD EASE BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THE SURFACE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: OUR ATTEMPT TO REACH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A LOW
LEVEL NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THERMAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A SUBTLE WAVE INTERACTING
WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
BY WEDNESDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS LIMITED, THOUGH, SO MOST
AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A STRONGER WAVE ROTATING AROUND A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN
EASTERN CANADA WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST BY
THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS LOW AS
850MB AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT
SNOW CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY. ENSEMBLES INDICATE MODERATE (40-70%) CHANCES
FOR TOTAL QPF EXCEEDING 0.01 INCH THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT IN
AREAS WEST OF A HURON-SIOUX CITY LINE (DUSTING TO A FEW TENTHS
OF SNOWFALL), BUT ONLY LOW (10-20%) PROBABILITY OF SNOW AMOUNTS
REACHING AN INCH OR MORE.
WITH LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE FAVORED SNOW-GROWTH
TEMPERATURE RANGE INTO FRIDAY, ANY MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER COULD
RESULT IN LINGERING FLURRIES, BUT POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS LOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO. THIS COULD PUSH WIND CHILLS BACK TOWARD ADVISORY
CRITERIA (-25F) IN SOME AREAS FRIDAY MORNING.
NEXT WEEKEND: THE DEEP NORTHWEST FLOW OF ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO
RELEASE BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH A PUSH OF WARMER AIR WORKING ACROSS
THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE A PUSH TOWARD SEASONALLY
NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY, WITH GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT
FEBRUARY WILL START OFF WARMER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BECOMING MORE PREVALENT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONGER WAVE ACCOMPANYING THE WARM FRONT COULD BRING A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA AT SOME POINT NEXT WEEKEND,
THOUGH DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/LOCATION KEEP NBM PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST MON JAN 26 2026
INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING THE PRIMARY AVIATION
CONCERN. MOST AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS 20-25KT BY 16Z-18Z, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS OF 30-35+KT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. THE GUSTS ACROSS THE BOARD WILL EASE AFTER 21-22Z AS
WINDS CHANGE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A COOL FRONT. MODEST
GUSTS AROUND 20KT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-90.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ038-
050-052>054-057>071.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR SDZ039-
040-055-056.
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ098.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-089-090-097.
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ013-
014.
DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...JH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page