080
FXUS63 KFSD 030200
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
900 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIMITED. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH THE
SHOWERS.
- ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. IF A
STORM CAN DEVELOP WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE BETTER CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF I-90.
- AFTER SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY, COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN MIDWEEK. EARLY MORNING FROST
OR NEAR-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES STRETCHING ROUGHLY ALONG
A MARSHALL, MN TO ALEXANDRIA, SD TO BURKE, SD LINE CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AMPLE DRY AIR
BENEATH THE CLOUDS HAS LED TO A COUPLE OF WIND GUSTS OVER 45 MPH
WITH THESE SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING, INCLUDING A 53 MPH
GUST IN HURON JUST BEFORE 8 PM. THIS THREAT FOR STRONGER WIND
GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS A NOCTURNAL
INVERSION DEVELOPS, THOUGH COULD STILL SEE A SHORT- LIVED
INCREASE IN WINDS TO 20-30 MPH AS ANY SHOWER/SPRINKLE MOVES
THROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA INTO CENTRAL
IOWA BY 1-3 AM. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, EXPECTING A MUCH
WARMER NIGHT AHEAD TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S. IN OTHER
WORDS, FROST/FREEZE CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED HEADING INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
A FAST MOVING WAVE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO ND AND MN INTO TONIGHT.
THIS WILL SPREAD SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THE AREA THAT
HAPPENS TO RESIDE WITHIN THE DGZ. WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
LIFTING FROM ABOUT 700 MB A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT WITH A VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER A
FEW WIND GUSTS TO 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE BETTER CHANCES
WILL BE NEAR AND EAST OF I-29.
A WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT BUT HAVE LITTLE
AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE NORTH TO
MORE WESTERLY ON SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER
70S. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MAYBE A LITTLE PATCHY CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON BUT NO INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS, SO LOOKING DRY.
A WEAK WAVE AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY, GENERALLY 500 J/KG CAPE OR
LOWER, WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY. A BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTH
WILL SETTLE SOUTH AND PUSH COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. NEAR AND AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT, GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-90, THE ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT
SOME GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS OR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY EVENING.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BRING A SERIES OF WAVES THROUGH THE AREA BUT FOR NOW
MOISTURE LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED SO THE THREAT FOR MORE THAN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS LOW. CURRENTLY THE BETTER
CHANCES APPEAR TO COME WITH A WEAKER WAVE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THEN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A BIT STRONGER WAVE.
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE FROST AND
FREEZE POTENTIAL WITH LIGHT WINDS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THURSDAY
MORNING. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MORNING LOWS OF 30 TO 35 ARE
EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
TO SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, BUT MOST OF THE
AREA WILL STAY DRY. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS COULD BRING DOWN STRONGER
WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 KTS, BUT CHANCES OF THIS AT ANY INDIVIDUAL
LOCATION IS LOW (<20%). THIS THREAT OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS IN
SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, TURNING WINDS NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AS
WE HEAD INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. LLWS CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY SOUTH
OF I-90 TONIGHT AS WINDS ATOP A SURFACE INVERSION GUST TO 40-45
KTS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...SAMET
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