098
FXUS63 KFSD 060225
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
925 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NEW
WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO MID 90S. HEAT INDICES MAY
APPROACH THE UPPER 90S IN SPOTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- AFTER A BRIEF BREAK FROM SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY, THE
CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL INCREASE
STARTING LATE MONDAY AND AGAIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST!
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
A NICE SUMMER NIGHT IS AHEAD FOR THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING THROUGH THE 70S OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DESPITE THE
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS, INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL LEAD AN ABOVE AVERAGE NIGHT OVERALL WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S FOR LOWS
WITH PERHAPS A FEW SPOTS IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ENOUGH OVERNIGHT TO
PREVENT FOG FROM DEVELOPING FOR THE MOST PART, WITH THE
EXCEPTION BEING OVER PARTS OF NORTHWEST IOWA NEAR AND EAST OF A
IDA GROVE TO CHEROKEE TO SPENCER LINE. THIS IS WHERE WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE THE LIGHTEST THROUGH THE NIGHT. ANY FOG SHOULD
REMAIN PATCHY WITH THE CHANCE OF DENSE FOG LESS THAN 25% IN
THESE AREAS. THIS PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 4 AM
TONIGHT AND BURN OFF BY 9 MONDAY MORNING.
RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY, SO EXPECT A HOTTER
DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 90S WEST TO THE MIDDLE 80S
EAST. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES BRIEFLY TOUCH 100
DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA, BUT
CHANCES FOR THIS ARE LOW (<20%) AND WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED SO
WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEAT HEADLINES. EITHER WAY, BE SURE TO STAY
HYDRATED OUT THERE ESPECIALLY WHEN DOING WORK OUTDOORS! BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, A SURFACE BOUNDARY LOOKS BE DRAPED
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. WE LOOK TO BE PRETTY CAPPED DUE TO A PRETTY
STOUT WARM NOSE AROUND 700 MB DURING THIS TIME, SO THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR STRONGER STORMS LOCALLY WILL BE IF ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS OUTSIDE OF THE AREA CAN MOVE IN LATE MONDAY
EVENING/MONDAY NIGHT AND SUSTAIN ITSELF. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A SUMMER-LIKE DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK
ACROSS THE AREA, QUIETER CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MANY
AREAS OBSERVING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 80S. THIS COMBINED
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S AND LIGHT WINDS HAS LED
TO A PICTURE PERFECT SUMMER AFTERNOON. WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED IN THE
FORECAST TODAY MAINLY DUE TO STRENGTHENING RIDGING, THIS WOULD BE A
PERFECT TIME TO HIT THE WATER PARK/POOL AND ENJOY SOMETHING COLD
LIKE ICE CREAM. OTHERWISE, THE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL CARRY OVER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES ONLY DECREASE INTO THE LOW
TO UPPER 60S FOR THE NIGHT.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: LOOKING INTO THE NEW WEEK, THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN BY MONDAY GIVING WAY TO MORE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. WITH STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION (WAA) IN PLACE AND A RETURN TO SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR GRADUAL INCREASE DURING THE EARLY
WEEK LEADING TO DAILY HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
WILL LEAD TO HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH THE MOST
OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS WEST OF I-29. WHILE THIS FALLS JUST SHORT OF
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IF WORKING OUTDOORS! OTHERWISE, THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL
USHER IN MULTIPLE WAVES THROUGH MIDWEEK LEAD TO NEAR-DAILY CHANCES
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. STARTING ON MONDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OUT ROUGHLY FROM THE BLACK HILLS TO NORTHEASTERN SD. AS THIS
FRONT IS INTERSECTED BY AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE, SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH A FEW POTENTIALLY BECOMING SEVERE.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO IF THIS DEVELOPING
ACTIVITY CAN SUSTAIN ITSELF WITH THE LIMITED SHEAR (15-30 KTS),
THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE (30%-40%) FOR A FEW STORMS TO
MAKE THEIR WAY INTO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY-14
CORRIDOR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. NONETHELESS, IF THIS PULSY
ACTIVITY CAN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY; THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE UP TO
QUARTER-SIZED HAIL AND 60 MPH WINDS GUSTS. THE NEXT CHANCES
POTENTIALLY COME FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE STALLED
BOUNDARY LIFTS TOWARDS THE ND/SD BORDER AND IS INTERSECTED BY A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WAVE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR
NORTH THE BOUNDARY LIFTS, CONFIDENCE IN OUR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
HAS LOWER A BIT DUE TO THE BETTER FORCING BEING JUST NORTH OF US AND
LIMITED SHEAR/INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, WE COULD AT LEAST GET SOME
POCKETS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OUT IT WITH PWATS BETWEEN
1.25" TO 1.75" INCHES AND DEEPER WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. WHILE FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECT, LOCALIZED PONDING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
AREAS THAT RECEIVE PROLONGED ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS DEVELOPING
ACTIVITY.
THURSDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN ACTIVE PERIOD
WILL CONTINUE ALOFT AS QUASI-ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
MULTIPLE WAVES WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE PLAINS LEADING TO AT LEAST
SOME SMALLER CHANCES (<30%) THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE RIDGING
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, WE COULD SEE THE RETURN OF OPPRESSIVE TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S AS EARLY AS SUNDAY. WITH HEAT INDICES
POTENTIALLY REFLECTING SIMILAR VALUES, MAKE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED
AND TO MONITOR YOUR LOCAL FORECAST!
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG OVER NORTHWEST IOWA MAINLY NEAR AND
AROUND KSLB BY DAYBREAK MONDAY, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD, GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. STRONGEST GUSTS
FROM MID MORNING MONDAY ONWARDS WILL BE AROUND 20-25 KTS MAINLY
NEAR AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...SAMET
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