677
FXUS63 KFSD 282325
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
525 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND TURN TO FLURRIES INTO
EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
- NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW TO FLURRIES REMAIN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY,
BUT NO LARGE SCALE IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED.
- SEVERAL PRECIPITATION RISKS CONTINUE INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK,
FOCUSED MOSTLY LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DICTATE PRECIPITATION TYPE, WHICH MAY BE MORE RAIN THAN SNOW.
- TEMPERATURES WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
BEFORE A FRONT BRINGS A RISK FOR RAIN BY THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO LINGER IN FAR EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-LVL VORTICITY
AND VERY WEAK MID-LVL FRONTOGENESIS CONTINUES. AS THE MID-LVL ENERGY
MOVES EAST, THIS SNOW WILL DISSIPATE TO FLURRIES BY THIS EVENING.
ELSEWHERE WE CONTINUE TO SEE A WIDE ARRAY OF TEMPERATURES, WARMER
30S NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE COOLER NORTHEAST SURFACE FLOW.
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL ALLOW
NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS TO PUSH COLDER AIR TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. IF SKIES CLEAR OVER AREAS THAT HAD FRESH SNOW TODAY, THEN
LOW TEMPERATURE MAY FALL WELL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR EVEN BELOW
ZERO, AND HAVE LOCALLY ADJUSTED LOWS TOWARDS THE COLDER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE, THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE THE GREATEST IMPACT ON LOWS
TONIGHT SO QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH SOUNDING SHOWING BOTH A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER BUT ALSO
A FAIRLY STOUT DRY LAYER AROUND 800 MB. EVENTUALLY LATER ON IN
THE AFTERNOON A THIN LAYER OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS, MOSTLY ACROSS NEBRASKA. SOME MID-LVL WARM ADVECTION
RESPONSE IS NOTED IN SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR GRADUAL TOP-DOWN SATURATION ALONG THE BUFFALO
RIDGE. THOUGH GIVEN THE CURRENT SOUNDING PROJECTIONS ANYTHING
THAT REACHES THE SURFACE WILL BE VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THROUGHOUT THE TRI-STATE AREA AS HIGHS ONLY REACH THE
MID-UPR 20S, WITH 30S LIKELY WEST RIVER.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: AS WE ENTER THE NEW WORK WEEK THE MID-LVL PATTERN
REMAINS MUCH THE SAME. FLATTENED MID-LVL RIDGING WITH PERSISTENT
TROUGHING LOCATED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL
ALLOW SEVERAL SMALLER WAVES OF VORTICITY TO TRACK EAST AND
NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, BRINGING SCATTERED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION. LATEST NBM INDICATES 60 TO
70% PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EAST EARLY MONDAY, WE'LL SEE A WARM ADVECTION RESPONSE IN
THE LOW-LVL SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. THIS
RESULTS IN HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS, WITH AN
INCREASE IN BOTH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND MID-LVL CLOUDS. WIND
GUSTS TOP THE 25 TO 30 MPH MARK IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY,
PUSHING THE FIRE DANGER RISKS TOWARDS THE "HIGH" GFDI
CATEGORIES. WITH RECENT SNOWFALL, HAVE ADJUSTED PERCENT GREEN TO
LOWER POTENTIAL ALONG THE RIDGE AREAS. BY MONDAY EVENING THE
FIRST SIGNS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION APPEAR IN THE TRI-STATE AREA
DRIVEN BY WARM ADVECTION AND WEAK MID-LVL DPVA. LOW-LVL
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE 0C AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID-UPR 30S SUPPORT HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF RAIN THAN SNOW INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME DRIZZLE MAY ALSO MIX IN AT TIMES SOUTH OF
I-90 INTO IOWA/NEBRASKA. ONE ASPECT OF THE FORECAST TO MONITOR
MORE CLOSELY WOULD BE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF STRATUS AND VERY
LOW-LVL MOISTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. THE INCREASING LOW-LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD RESULT IN
DRIZZLE OR EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO NW IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
STRATUS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY AS MID-LVL VORTICITY REMAINS
STRUNG OUT ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR. SOME LINGERING VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION MAY CONTINUE INTO MID-MORNING, BUT WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING ANY ROAD IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
HIGHS EVENTUALLY RISE INTO THE 40S IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: THE UPPER TROUGHING OVER FOUR CORNERS REGION
EJECTS EASTWARD IN THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK, BRINGING A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, BROAD AND SUSTAINED WARM
ADVECTION IN THE LOW-LVLS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK RESULTS IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 40S AND MOST LIKELY INTO THE
50S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SURFACE
FLOW. THE VAST MAJORITY OF DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
COMPACT UPPER LOW PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER
ENSEMBLES DO SHOW SOME SUPPORT FOR POPS TO DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 WEDNESDAY, BUT THESE ENSEMBLES ALSO
SHOW SUPPORT FOR JUST VERY LIGHT RAIN TOTALS (<0.10"). OUT NEXT
REASONABLE RISK FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
AS A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL NUDGE A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SURGE AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY WITH SOME GUIDANCE HINTING AT WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE 60S AND EVEN 70S PUSHING NORTHWARD. IN FACT THE LREF
PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 60 DEGREES ARE SKEWED
WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN, WITH NEARLY 70% PROBABILITIES OF
HIGHS >60. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING RAIN RISKS BACK TO
THE REGION, THOUGH QUALITY OF LOW-LVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN DOUBT
GIVEN MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS SURGING MORE EAST THAN NORTH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ARRIVAL. AT THIS TIME, DON'T EXPECT ANY
MAJOR COOLDOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
LOW LEVEL STRATUS CONTINUES TO BLANKET LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
A KMHE TO KFSD TO KSPW LINE. THE STRATUS IS MAINLY SITTING AT VFR
LEVELS THOUGH SOME SITES HAVE REPORTED CEILINGS DOWN TO
MVFR/IFR/LIFR THRESHOLDS. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL BENEATH THE
STRATUS THOUGH VISIBILITIES IN THE FALLING SNOW REMAIN VFR. THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL COME TO A STOP OVER THE COMING HOURS. SOME LOW LEVEL
STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT ANY TAF SITES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WHILE WINDS BECOME MARGINALLY BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL FINISH OUT THE TAF PERIOD.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
AS WE CLOSE OUT THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY, HERE'S A BRIEF LOOK AT
JUST HOW DRY THE MONTH WAS FOR A COUPLE OF OUR CLIMATE
LOCATIONS.
SIOUX FALLS WITH JUST 0.03" OF PRECIPITATION RANKED AS THE 3RD
DRIEST FEBRUARY ON RECORD WITH 1923 (T), 1894 (T), AND 1937
(0.01") AHEAD OF 2026 AND 1931. THE 0.5" OF TOTAL MONTHLY SNOW
WAS BEHIND 1931 (T), 1923 (T), 1894 (T), 1987 (0.3") IN THE
RANKING FOR THE LOWEST SNOW TOTAL FOR THE MONTH. FOR THE FIRST 2
MONTHS OF THE YEAR, THE 0.20" OF PRECIPITATION RANKS AS THE 3RD
DRIEST START TO THE YEAR ON RECORD BEHIND 0.10" (1901) AND 0.13"
(1931).
SIOUX CITY WITH JUST 0.01" OF PRECIPITATION RANKED AS THE DRIEST
FEBRUARY ON RECORD AHEAD OF 1931 (0.04"). THE TRACE OF TOTAL
MONTHLY SNOW WAS TIED FOR THE LOWEST ON RECORD FOR FEBRUARY WITH
1946 AND 1931. FOR THE FIRST 2 MONTHS OF THE YEAR, THE 0.29" OF
PRECIPITATION RANKS AS THE 2ND DRIEST START TO THE YEAR ON
RECORD BEHIND 0.26" (2022).
THE TOTALS IN HURON ARE YET TO BE DETERMINED ONCE PRECIPITATION
ENDS TODAY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...MEYERS
CLIMATE...DUX
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