863
FXUS63 KFSD 162350
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
550 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A EARLY WINTER SYSTEM WILL BRING PERIOD OF RAIN, DRIZZLE,
SNOW, AND POTENTIALLY SLEET TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WILL
RANGE FROM 0.20" TO 0.50" OF AN INCH MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
HURON TO MADISON TO SPENCER, IA LINE.
- WHILE MOSTLY RAIN/DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED, AN INCH OR SO OF
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE U.S HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWESTERN MN.
- DRY MIDWEEK, WITH UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK. GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN STORM TRACK/TIMING, THOUGH
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE CURRENTLY FAVORED ALONG THE
HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: ANOTHER SEASONABLE DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK
ACROSS THE AREA, MILD AND DREARY CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
AS ALTOSTRATUS CONTINUES TO SIT OVERHEAD MAINLY DUE TO AN INCREASE
IN WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. WHILE THIS ALONG WITH THE LIGHTER
SURFACE WINDS HAS WORKED TO SLOW OUR INCREASING TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON, STILL EXPECTING EXPECTING HIGHS TO PEAK SOMEWHERE AROUND
THE 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FROM HERE, SURFACE
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARDS AS MID-LEVEL RIDING
MOVES OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT KEEPING THINGS QUIET. LASTLY, TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY HOVER AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR THE NIGHT.
MONDAY & TUESDAY: LOOKING INTO THE EARLIER PARTS OF THE WEEK,
QUIETER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY AS MID-
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUE TO SCOOT EASTWARDS. A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
RETURNS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW
(ULL) PROGRESSES ACROSS THE SD/NE BORDER BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR DRIZZLE, RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY SNOW. LOOKING AT 16.12Z GUIDANCE,
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE LOWER LEVELS SATURATING AND A
DRY SLOT BUILDING INTO AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING 850:700 MB FRONTAL FORCING ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-90 WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE BETTER RAIN ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THERE. WHILE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EXACT
LOCATION OF THE NARROWING BAND OF PRECIPITATION, HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THINGS TOWARDS PORTIONS OF THE U.S. HIGHWAY-14
CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWESTERN MN AS THE TARGET AREA FOR WHERE THIS AREA
OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION SETS UP.
WITH DECREASING SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WARMER
AIR ALOFT (WARM NOSE) BY MONDAY NIGHT, CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO SLEET OR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW IN AREAS UNDERNEATH THE
BAND BEFORE DYNAMIC COOLING HELPS THINGS FULLY TRANSITIONS TO WET
SNOW. FROM HERE, COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW ACCUMULATE MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN AS STRONG FRONTAL FORCING AND INCREASING
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY (100-200 J/KG) LEADS TO HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES
OF UP TO 0.25" IN/HR AT TIMES ACCORDING TO THE HREF. NONETHELESS,
SHOULD SEE SNOWFALL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BY DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY AS
FRONTAL FORCING GRADUALLY WEAKENS. SHIFTING GEARS TO OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS, THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY SET UP ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A HURON TO MADISON TO SPENCER, IA LINE WITH A 0.20" TO
0.50" OF AN INCH EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED WITH
BAND THAT SET UP ALONG THE HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR. SOUTH OF THAT LINE,
0.10" OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED MAINLY DUE PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
AND/OR LIGHTER RAIN. LOOKING INTO THE REST OF TUESDAY, QUIETER
CONDITIONS RETURN BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY AS MID-LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS IN BEHIND THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SYSTEM.
WEDNESDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, QUIETER
CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY RETURN THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WEAK MID-LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD. AS WE RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BY
THURSDAY, ALL FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A
WELL AGREED UPON TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WHILE MOST OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS SHOULD PASS JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF US, PARTS OF OUR AREAS WILL LIKELY GET
CLIPPED BY THE NORTHERN PART OF THIS SYSTEM LEADING TO INCREASING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20%-30% SO FAR) SOUTH OF I-90 WITH A FOCUS
ACROSS THE U.S. HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. WHILE
MOST OF THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN INITIALLY GIVEN THE MILD SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (40S TO 50S), CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW WET
SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN BY FRIDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DECREASE INTO
THE MID 30S. NONETHELESS, WITH THE SYSTEM CONTINUING TO WOBBLE
NORTHWARDS AND SOUTHWARDS WITH EACH RUN; SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
WITH THE TRACK AND THUS EXACT AMOUNTS. WITH THIS IN MIND, CONTINUE
TO MONITOR YOUR LOCAL FORECAST FOR UPDATES ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE
ANY TRAVEL PLANS. FROM HERE, QUIETER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
SATURDAY AS A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION.
LASTLY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY CLOSER TO OUR NORMALS WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 40S TO 50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST SUN NOV 16 2025
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KHON-KFSD-KSUX. BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING CLOUDS BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH AND COVER THE ENTIRE CWA BY
MID- MORNING. WHILE THERE ARE CLOUDS PRESENT, THEY SHOULD NOT
DECREASE BELOW VFR CEILINGS UNTIL THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT, BECOMING BREEZY
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ENTER THE REGION BY EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE IN CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE TO MVFR, AND POSSIBLY IFR UNDER ANY STRONGER SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE ACCUMULATING SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-90, AND ESPECIALLY AREAS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. RAIN
MAY TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO DRIZZLE AT TIMES DURING THE DAY.
OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL, RAIN MAY TRANSITION TO A WINTRY
MIX TO ALL SNOW FOR AREAS AT ELEVATION SUCH AS THE BUFFALO
RIDGE.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...AJP
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