832
FXUS63 KFSD 041755
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1155 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND
MONDAY.
- WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEM AHEAD INTO THE NEW WEEK, EXPECT MOSTLY
QUIET CONDITIONS TO PERSIST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
TODAY-THURSDAY: ANOTHER DREARY DAY AHEAD! SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS, LOWER-LEVEL CLOUDS (STRATUS) CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH POCKETS OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. UNLIKE
YESTERDAY THOUGH, WE'RE SEEING MORE OF A TRUE MIX OF THE TWO AS WE
GO IN AND OUT OF SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ).
WITH THE INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF PATCHY TO SCATTERED SLICK SPOTS,
DECIDED TO INCREASE THE MENTION OF FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA THROUGH AT LEAST LATE-MORNING (10AM-12PM). WITH ALL THIS IN
MIND, A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ALONG WITH AN ADDITIONAL TENTH OR TWO
OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THINGS CLEAR OUT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WE COULD SEE THE BRIEF RETURN OF SUNSHINE
BY THIS AFTERNOON AS OUR PERSISTENT STRATUS LAYER FINALLY BEGINS
TO THIN OUT HELPING TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE 20S TO MID 30S FOR
THE DAY. HOWEVER, THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS INCREASING WARM
AIR ADVECTION (WAA) WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE THIS EVENING LEADS
TO ANOTHER PUSH OF ALTOSTRATUS AND CIRRUS.
BY TONIGHT, WHILE A FEW ADDITIONAL FLURRIES CAN'T BE RULED OUT
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN; SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A 5KFT
LAYER OF DRIER AIR WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL ACCUMULATIONS.
NONETHELESS, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER ABOVE NORMAL
OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 20S. HEADING INTO THURSDAY,
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE WARMING TEMPERATURES AS LINGERING
WAA MIXES DOWN TO THE SURFACE HELPING HIGHS APPROACH THE 40S TO MID
50S FOR THE DAY WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY. OTHERWISE, A TIGHTENING SPG WILL HELP INCREASE NORTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
LASTLY, THE MORE MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS LOWS GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.
THE WEEKEND ONWARDS: LOOKING INTO THE WEEKEND, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN LEADING
TO A RETURN TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A MOSTLY DRY COLD FRONT
WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING SLIGHTLY AFFECTING THE
RESULTING TEMPERATURES OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT,
HIGHS WILL TEMPORARILY DECREASE INTO THE 30S AND 40S BY FRIDAY; BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY RECOVER TO THE 40S AND 50S BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
ADDITIONAL RIDGING PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE A FEW WAVES
WILL ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL, LIMIT MOISTURE WILL KEEP
ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BAY THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH THE WARMEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY AS HIGHS APPROACH THE SPRING-LIKE 50S AND 60S. HOWEVER, AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY
COOL OUR TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 40S DAILY HEADING INTO THE
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH
VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF LOW-
LEVEL STRATUS MAY DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-
29, BUT CHANCES FOR CEILINGS DROPPING BACK TO MVFR OR LOWER ARE
LOW (10-25%) AT THE TAF SITES. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, THERE WILL BE SOME SUPPORT FOR LIGHT RAIN/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, DRY
AIR SHOULD LIMIT THIS ACTIVITY FROM REACHING THE GROUND, WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LESS THAN 15% OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH WILL BE
CHANGING DIRECTION A FEW TIMES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST-
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA TONIGHT,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AND THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
HEADING INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. WINDS
COULD GUST UP TO 20-25 KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY
WEST OF I-29.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...SAMET
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