676
FXUS63 KFSD 141904
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
204 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THESE CONDITIONS BEGIN LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING ACROSS THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS AND SNOW WILL RESULT IN DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE
TRAVEL.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL SPAN A LARGE RANGE ACROSS THE AREA.
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 WILL SEE BETWEEN 1 TO 3
INCHES. LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-90 WILL SEE UP TO 2 TO 6 INCHES,
WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 6 TO 12 INCHES RESIDING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
- STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW ARE IN STORE FOR THIS SYSTEM WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40-60 MPH. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR
SOUTH OF I- 90 THOUGH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF
THE INTERSTATE.
- WITH BREEZY WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WIND CHILLS
DOWN TO -15F TO -25F ARE EXPECTED.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
THIS MORNINGS LIGHT SNOWBAND HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOWFALL BETWEEN A HALF AN INCH TO ABOUT AN INCH
AND A HALF HAS BEEN REPORTED FROM THIS BAND. WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
IN PLACE AND TEMPERATURES THAT HAVE WARMED TO THE MID 30S TO UP TO
ABOUT 50F, SOME OF THE SNOW WILL MELT. THE BAND WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS BEFORE THE MID LEVEL LOW
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE MID LEVEL
THERMAL GRADIENT AND LEAD TO A RESTRENGTHENING FRONT. THUS,
FRONTOGENESIS (FGEN) WILL INTENSIFY AS THIS BAND BEGINS TO START
SINKING SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARDS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS ALONG
HIGHWAY-14 WILL SEE SNOW DURING THE LATE EVENING TIMEFRAME. WITH
TEMPERATURES BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING,
RAIN LOOKS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF HIGHWAY-14. AS THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES
SOUTHEASTWARDS, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE RAIN TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW THOUGH
LOCATIONS ALONG I-90 IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST IOWA STILL
LOOK TO SEE A 1 TO 2 HOUR LONG WINDOW OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS LOOKS
TO RESULT IN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE BEFORE PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONS
TO SNOW.
WINDS WILL BE STRENGTHENING DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME
THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
THE STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MORNING
TIMEFRAME. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE SAME PERIOD OF TIME WHEN THE
HEAVIEST SNOW FALLS. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOWFALL RATES WILL BE
COMING DOWN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT WITH THE WINDS BEING AT
THEIR PEAK INTENSITY WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-60 MPH, BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IS EXPECTED EVEN IN THE AREAS WHERE SNOW HAS FINISHED
FALLING. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THOUGH THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW SATURATED THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN. IF ENOUGH SATURATION CAN BE PRESENT TO GENERATE A TINY BIT
OF INSTABILITY, THEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IF THE DRY AIR
WINDS OUT, THEN LITTLE IF ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
CURRENTLY FAVORING A DRIED SOLUTION AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP AN
EYE ON MODEL TRENDS.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING THOUGH STILL
REMAINING BREEZY, CONTRIBUTING TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW, MAINLY
EAST OF I-29 WHERE WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST. AT THE SAME TIME,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND
CHILLS DOWN TO -15F TO -25F. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE, SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE QUITE A BIT WITH LOCATIONS GENERALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90 RECEIVING 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW. LOCATIONS
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE WILL SEE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 2 TO 6
INCHES WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS UP TO 6 TO 12 INCHES EXPECTED OVER
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THUS, THE BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN
EXPANDED NOW TO COVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. A HIGH WIND WARNING
HAS BEEN ISSUED AS WELL FOR MOST LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-90. THE
BLIZZARD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING ALL THE WAY
THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY MORNING. THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM
7 AM SUNDAY THROUGH 1 AM MONDAY.
MONDAY ITSELF WILL BE A COLD DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY WARMING
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW 20S. WITH CONTINUED BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS IN PLACE, WIND CHILLS WILL PERSIST FOR THE ENTIRE DAY THOUGH
NOT AS COLD AS THEY WERE IN THE MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
BE COLD WITH LOWS FALLING TO THE POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM ON TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) WILL
STRENGTHEN ALOFT, PUSHING 850 MB TEMPERATURES UP TO -2C TO +10C.
MIXING THESE TEMPERATURES TO THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN NEAR
SEASONABLE TO ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S TO MID
50S, WARMEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE SAME TIME,
THERE COULD BE SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION BECAUSE OF THE WAA IN PLACE.
DEPENDING ON HOW THERMAL PROFILES SHAKE OUT, COULD SEE THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE
THIS WILL MAINLY BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT THE NOSE OF THE WAA
MAY MAKE FOR A SMALL AREA OF MIXED PRECIPITATION AS TEMPERATURES
WARM. ANY AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN REMAINING
VARIANCE IN THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
CONUS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ALL THE WAY BACK UP TO THE 40S, 50S, 60S, AND EVEN 70S
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES FURTHER WARM
TO THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. THE ENSEMBLES SUPPORT
THIS WARM AS THEY SHOW A BROAD 50-90% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO BREAK 60F NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT, THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
TO REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2026
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG INCOMING WINTER STORM. BREEZY
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS WILL BECOME EASTERLY LATE THIS
EVENING, AND NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. AFTER MIDNIGHT
GUSTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT, GUSTING 30-35 KTS. GUSTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING, PEAKING MID-MORNING BETWEEN 45-50 KTS. A BLIZZARD WARNING
IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WHEN WINDS BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MOVES INTO THE AREA ALONG HIGHWAY 14 THIS EVENING.
AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH OF I-90 THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE
WILL BE RAIN, WITH SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT THE RAIN BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX TO ALL
SNOW FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BY SUNRISE PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES, 1+ INCH/HOUR. RAPIDLY
ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING SNOW IS LIKELY TO IMPACT FLIGHT OPERATIONS
AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. SNOW TAPERS OFF THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER, THE BLOWING SNOW RISK WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL DEGRADE FROM VFR DOWN TO IFR AND
POSSIBLE LIFR AT TIMES UNDER HEAVY SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE BEYOND THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
SDZ050-057>067.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
SDZ067-070-071.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
SDZ068>071.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR SDZ040-056.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR SDZ038-039-052>055.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ050-057>061-063>065.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR SDZ050-063-
068-069.
MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
MNZ098.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY
FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097.
IA...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ001-012.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ002-003-013-014-021-022-032.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
IAZ020-031.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
NEZ013-014.
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 AM SUNDAY TO 1 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...AJP
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