745
FXUS63 KFSD 050338
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1038 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
A WEAK JET STREAM WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP ACTIVE WEATHER OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET, BOTTOMING OUT BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SUNDAY. BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS WILL AGAIN GUST IN THE 20 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WARM BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO
TODAY (SATURDAY).
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE MONDAY
MORNING, WHICH WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
MOST AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY RAIN ACCUMULATION WITH THIS
WAVE. THE AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO WARM, AIDED BY THE BROAD
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE PLAINS. MILD TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BOTH
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EACH
AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL CAUSE A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN
CONDITIONS: EXPECT A 15 TO 20 DEGREE DROP IN TEMPERATURES PAIRED
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS ONLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE, GIVEN THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES NOT DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL IT
AFTER IT PASSES THE REGION, KEEPING THE BEST DYNAMICS AND LIFT EAST
OF SIOUXLAND.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVEN IN THE WAKE
OF THIS FRONT WITH A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE PLAINS STATES. THE WORK WEEK ENDS DRY ON FRIDAY, WITH A
SLIGHT MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND, BUT MODELS VASTLY VARY STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CDT SAT APR 4 2020
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND JUST BEYOND,
FROM 6Z TO 18Z MONDAY, MVFR AND IFR STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VANDENBOOGART
LONG TERM...VANDENBOOGART
AVIATION...08
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