631
FXUS63 KFSD 142349
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
649 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN RETURNS LATE THIS EVENING, CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. RAIN TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE TO A COUPLE
TENTHS ALONG HIGHWAY 14, TO 0.25 TO 0.75 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH
OF I-90. ISOLATED POCKETS UP TO 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20.
- NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
- CHANCES FOR FROST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS
LOWS FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S. AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE FROST.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE A PERSISTENT, SHALLOW LAYER OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT OUR
HIGHS SOMEWHAT FROM WHAT THE NBM LOADED, ADJUSTED DOWN SLIGHTLY WITH
A BLEND OF NBM/CONSSHORT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL TO THE 40S.
MEANWHILE A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL WORK EAST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. EARLY THIS EVENING
THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT OUT ONTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEAST. AS IT DOES SO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THESE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WITH THE SYSTEM AND
BEGIN TO IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 6 AND 8
PM CDT TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE IN THE SIOUX
FALLS AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT. AS THE SURFACE LOW
SKIRTS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING SHOWERS
AND STORMS BECOME MORE NUMEROUS, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90 AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. HERE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE MORE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY
RAIN. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL CANADA. A COLD FRONT
WILL FORM OFF OF THIS LOW AND WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST. BEHIND THE FRONT STORMS END AND CLOUDS
BEGIN TO BREAK UP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.
SIMULTANEOUSLY THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE EXTENDS SOUTH, EVENTUALLY
PHASING INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
AMPLIFYING EFFECT AS THE NOW DEEP AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH TIGHTENS
AND NARROWS. THURSDAY EVENING THE LLJ RESPONDS TO THIS AMPLIFICATION
BY RAMPING QUICKLY UP TO 50+ MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL MIX DOWN
RESULTING IN SURFACE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 45 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. OUR
WESTERN MOST COUNTIES MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATE THURSDAY EVENING, BUT GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME. AS SUCH, HAVE OPTED TO WAIT ON A WIND
HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. WINDS GENERALLY DECREASE AS YOU MOVE TO
THE EAST BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT 25-35 MPH. THE STRONGER WINDS
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL
WIND CONCERNS WILL BE ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE
ADDITIONAL GUSTS OF 40+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
AS FAR AS RAIN TOTALS ARE CONCERNED THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
DOWN A LITTLE. AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 14 AND NORTH WILL ONLY SEE A
TRACE UP TO A TENTH OR TWO. AS YOU MOVE SOUTH TOWARD I-90 TOTALS
INCREASE TO A COUPLE TENTHS UP TO 0.30 INCHES. FOR AREAS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-90 GUIDANCE INDICATES RAIN TOTALS RANGING FROM 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES, WITH HIGHEST TOTALS FOCUSED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 MAY SEE ISOLATED POCKETS UP TO 1 INCH.
BREEZY WINDS CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FRIDAY EVENING. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
OF CLIMATOLOGY THANKS TO STRONG CAA ON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY AND REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING,
RESULTING IN LOW TEMPERATURES BY SUNRISE SATURDAY IN THE LOW TO MID
30S. AREA OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY
AND USHER IN WARMER AIR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO UPPER
60S, WARMEST OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME FOR
FROST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
SUNDAY WILL BE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR DAY WITH CONTINUED WAA. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S. DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOW 70S CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
MIX OF VFR AND MVFR STRATUS THIS EVENING GIVES WAY TO WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AS A COUPLE PERIODS OF RAIN MOVE INTO
THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING, CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
RAIN LINGERS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF I-29, FINALLY
EXITING NORTHWESTERN IA BY MID AFTERNOON. GIVEN LATEST
SOUNDINGS, HAVE REMOVED TS MENTION FROM KSUX, AS CONFIDENCE IN
OCCURRENCE IS LOWER. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED TS DURING THE
PERIOD SOUTH OF I-90.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AS THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THURSDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. BY THE MID AFTERNOON, GUSTS
25-35 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. STRONGEST GUSTS WILL BE WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD. STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...SG
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