621
FXUS63 KFSD 021711
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1111 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY MIX IMPACTS AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL RISKS FOR LIGHT
SNOW OR FREEZING DRIZZLE SPREAD NORTHWARD AFTER DARK.
- STRATUS AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY, THEN
TEMPERATURES TREND ABOVE NORMAL HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
- NEXT WEEK COULD BRING A COUPLE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO PARTS OF THE REGION TUESDAY AND/OR THURSDAY, BUT AT THIS
TIME THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS LOW
(<20%). MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES MAY RETURN TO END NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
THROUGH TONIGHT: STRATUS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S. HAVE SEEN SOME FOG, INCLUDING PATCHY DENSE FOG ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MO RIVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD. FURTHER EAST, HAVE SEEN
SOME VERY PATCHY FLURRIES IN THE LOWEST STRATUS DECK.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE PASSES
THROUGH AND SOUTH OF THE MO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WAVE IS GENERALLY
WEAKLY FORCED, BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT AND
MIXED PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS
EVENING, FOCUSED TOWARD THE MO RIVER VALLEY, BUT STRETCHING UP
TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR. A FEW QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING
PRECIPITATION TYPE AND ACCUMULATIONS DUE TO A DRY LAYER ALOFT,
SLOWER SATURATION IN THE DGZ, SATURATED LOW LEVELS, AND THE TIMING
OF THE WARM NOSE (WAA) ALOFT. HOWEVER, THINK THAT WE'LL SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF AN HOUR OR TWO WHERE THE WESTERN MO RIVER VALLEY WILL SEE
SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN BEFORE SWITCHING TO SLEET AND SNOW. THIS
TRANSITION SHOULD HAPPEN FAIRLY QUICKLY - ESPECIALLY AS YOU HEAD
FURTHER EAST. AMOUNTS REMAIN LIGHT, WITH LESS THAN A 15% CHANCE FOR
MORE THAN AN INCH OF SNOW. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF
ICE ACCRETION OF 0.01" STRETCHING FROM FAR SOUTHWESTERN GREGORY
COUNTY SOUTHEAST INTO EASTERN NE. DID ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR GREGORY, CHARLES MIX, AND BON HOMME COUNTIES WHERE
HIGHEST ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. THESE LOCATIONS
WILL SEE A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE TO A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS. THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF SATURATION/TEMPERATURE
COOLING OCCURS MORE SLOWLY AND AREAS EAST SEE MORE FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET THAN ANTICIPATED.
THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A VERY WEAK WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH COULD LEAD
TO LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES EAST OF I-29. LIMITED POPS THOUGH TO
APPROXIMATELY 20% OR LESS GIVEN QUESTIONS ABOUT AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AND EVEN
INTO TONIGHT AS STRATUS LINGERS. HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH
LOWS TONIGHT A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY: STRATUS LINGERS INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND
WITH SATURATE LOW LEVELS AND WEAK FLOW. GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW
QUICKLY STRATUS MOVES EAST, WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES. HAVE
KEPT THINGS ON THE COLDER SIDE FOR SOUTHWESTERN MN, WITH MODERATING
TEMPS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD. THE WEEKEND AND TO START NEXT WEEK
SEES DRY CONDITIONS, WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
RETURNING. RIDGING SLIDES EAST THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. BY MONDAY, FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY, WITH A STRONGER WAVE
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN
DISAGREEMENTS IN TIMING/LOCATION OF THE WAVE, LEFT NBM AS IS FOR NOW
WITH SOME LOW END POPS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN.
WEDNESDAY ONWARD: SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS WARMER
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION MID WEEK, WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO END NEXT WEEK. GUIDANCE IS STILL QUITE VARIABLE WITH
THE DETAILS, BUT A COUPLE OF WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. THE FIRST WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF THE AREA COULD BRING LIGHT
PRECIP TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DEEPENING TROUGH/STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN
JET LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WHICH COULD BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1107 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE MOVE THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA AS
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE CROSSES NEBRASKA. INFILTRATING DRY AIR IN
THE MID-LVLS CONTINUES TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT, BUT
SOME BETTER FOCUS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER BY MID-
AFTERNOON.
WARM ADVECTION SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA AFTER DARK, BUT
ESPECIALLY FOCUSES ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
MIXTURE OF VERY LIGHT SNOW (SEEDER-FEEDER), AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE (WARM ADVECTION) FOR A HANDFUL OF HOURS AS CEILINGS DROP
ONCE AGAIN. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SLIDE EAST BY 3AM.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, LEAVING AN OVERCAST
IFR OR LOWER CEILING IN PLACE.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-
063-068.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...DUX
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