095
FXUS63 KFSD 300227
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
927 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT 1 AM TONIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR IN
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF
DOLLAR COINS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
- WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND. AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100F ALONG PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 90S.
- LOW CHANCES (<= 25%) FOR RAIN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MONDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE UP TO A 50-80% CHANCE
FOR TUESDAY. SEVERE STORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS CHANCE FOR
RAIN, SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL CHANCES (20-40%) FOR
RAIN PERSIST FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 920 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS EVENING AND ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. THOUGH THERE IS AMPLE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
NEARING 50 KTS, INCREASING CIN SHOULD HELP WEAKEN THE STORMS
BEFORE THEY ARRIVE ALONG OUR HIGHWAY-14 COUNTIES. STILL, GIVEN
THE SHEAR VALUES, HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLAR COINS
CAN'T ENTIRELY BE RULED OUT IN THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG THE
HIGHWAY-14 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA STARTING AROUND
10:30-11 PM. ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD COME TO AN END RATHER
QUICKLY, LIKELY ENDING BY 1 AM.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH OF PARTS OF
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHERE THE STRONGEST LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE LOCATED, WITH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS LLJ
CREEPING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY STAYS
SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR OF
NORTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 2 AM AND 7 AM SUNDAY.
A VERY WARM SUNDAY IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA, WITH THE HEAT INDEX
POTENTIALLY REACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS AT TIMES IN PARTS OF THE
AREA. STILL LOOKING LIKE COVERAGE OF THESE 100 DEGREE HEAT
INDICES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW AND PATCHY, BUT WILL ASSESS THE FULL
SUITE OF 00Z GUIDANCE BEFORE MAKING ANY HEAT HEADLINE
DETERMINATION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
CLEARING SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A LITTLE BIT MORE TO THE 80S TO
LOW 90S WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE HEAT
INDICES TOUCH 100F THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TEMPERATURES COOL AS THE
SUN BEGINS TO SET. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PERSIST ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA BUT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE EVENING TIMEFRAME
WHERE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS WILL PUSH EASTWARDS INTO AN
INCREASINGLY STABLE AIRMASS SITTING OVER THE FORECAST AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME, VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES WILL BE WEAKENING AS WELL. STILL,
CAN'T RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO
BETWEEN 9PM TO 3AM. SHOULD A STRONG STORM OR TWO DEVELOP, IT COULD
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A QUARTER (1 INCH) AND DAMAGING
WINDS TO 60 MPH IF THE STORM CAN TAP INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE
MOST LIKELY LOCATION TO SEE THESE POTENTIALLY STRONGER STORMS IS
ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER. ELEVATED SHOWERS LOOK TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE A SIMILAR DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO WARM TO THE UPPER 80S AND 90S. THIS WILL AGAIN PUSH HEAT
INDICES TO THE 90S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
AGAIN SEEING HEAT INDICES TOUCH 100F DURING THE AFTERNOON TIMEFRAME.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE PASSING MAINLY THROUGH MONTANA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WAVE HOWEVER WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT
AND PUSH INTO NORTHEASTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA BUT IS MUCH MORE
QUESTIONABLE FOR OUR AREA. ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS
WAVE PUSHES INTO THE FORECAST AREA DUE TO LIMITED
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AND CAPPING JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THUS, HAVE
LEFT POPS DRY FOR SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA, MONDAY LOOKS
TO BE A CONTINUATION OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS WARMING
TO THE 80S TO UP TO ABOUT 90F. CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK TO RETURN TO
THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE MASS RESPONSE FROM THIS WAVE WILL RETURN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARY NORTHWARDS AS A WARM FRONT. THE
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY SHOW A 50-80% CHANCE FOR RAINFALL TOTALS TO
EXCEED A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS WILL LIKELY BE CONTINGENT ON WHERE
THE FRONT SETS UP AND IF THE CAP CAN BE BROKEN OR NOT. AS OF NOW,
LATEST MACHINE LEARNING (ML) GUIDANCE SHOWS A 5-10% CHANCE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON TUESDAY. TOUGH TO SAY IF TRENDS WILL HOLD
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS SO WILL KEEP AN EYE ON TUESDAY GOING FORWARD.
CHANCES (20-40%) FOR RAIN PERSIST FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONG
WITH A CONTINUATION OF ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ML GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW
CHANCES (<= 5%) FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THUS, COULD SEE A
CONTINUATION FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK
BUT CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2026
LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. -SHRA/-TSRA
MAY IMPACT AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE I-29
CORRIDOR LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT (ROUGHLY 03Z-08Z) BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE -TSRA AT KHON
AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE EAST OF I-29 INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. HEAVIER RAIN MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR AND LOWER
CONDITIONS, AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY AND/OR ERRATIC
WINDS. OTHERWISE, SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LOWER CHANCES (30% OR
LESS) OF MVFR VISIBILITY ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE DUE TO FOG,
BUT CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL WITH SOME
VARIANCE IN DIRECTION. MARGINAL SPEED LLWS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AT KSUX AS THE LLJ INCREASES. HOWEVER, STRONGER PART OF THE JET
WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF KSUX, EXPANDING LLWS INTO
NORTHWESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...SAMET
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...SG
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