675
FXUS63 KFSD 080809
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
309 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
IN LOCATIONS WITH WARM SEASON FUELS THAT HAVE NOT YET GREENED
UP.
- IF ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING SOME LOCALIZED GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A SLOW UPWARDS CLIMB HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES RISING 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL LATER NEXT WEEK.
- PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF SPRINKLES SATURDAY, THE PROBABILITY OF >0.10" OF
RAIN REMAIN NEAR 30% THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT FRI MAY 8 2026
A CHALLENGING FIRE WEATHER FORECAST TODAY WITH ABUNDANT
GREENNESS IN MOST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
DROPPING TO 15 TO 25 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS, WIND GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH POSSIBLE AND HIGHS IN THE 70S SOME LOCALIZED
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN
AREAS SUSCEPTIBLE WILL BE THE WARM SEASON GRASSES THAT ARE STILL
LAGGING A BIT IN TERMS OF GREENING UP. THESE FUELS GENERALLY
NEED SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES TO START GREENING UP. SO THE MAIN
TAKEAWAY IS TO AVOID BURNING IN AREAS THAT REMAIN FAIRLY CURED.
VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING WHICH COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SHOWERS, MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST IA AND FAR SOUTHEAST SD AND NEARBY LOCATIONS. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED BUT WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT IS LOW.
A BIT COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S. LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90 WILL SEE LOWS
FALL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
AFTER THIS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: A BEAUTIFUL MAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION WITH
LIGHT WINDS, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL NEAR
20% IN QUITE A FEW AREAS, BUT LIGHTER WINDS PREVENT ANY FIRE
DANGER.
TONIGHT: SKIES CLEAR AND TEMPERATURES FALL EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT
A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WILL
SPREAD MID-UPR CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA OVERNIGHT. A
SPRINKLE OR TWO COULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG, BUT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. CLOUDS SHOULD TEMPER THE FALLING TEMPERATURES AFTER
MIDNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
FRIDAY: A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE CWA LATE MORNING
ON FRIDAY, PUSHING A FAVORABLE WARMER WESTERLY WIND THROUGH THE
AREA. DEEP MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON AOA 8000 FT AGL WILL PROMOTE
BOTH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S, BUT ALSO A
DROP IN AFTERNOON DEW POINTS. WIND GUST MAY APPROACH THE 20 TO 25
KNOT RANGE WITH RH NEAR 25% AGAIN, BUT GIVEN RELATIVE GREENNESS,
FIRE DANGER RISKS REMAIN LOW.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: REALLY NO CHANGES OR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FOR THE
WEEKEND FORECAST. THE LIKELY SCENARIO IS A FRONT PASSES FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY, TURNING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SLOWING THE UPWARD RISE IN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES MAY MOVE THROUGH AT THE SAME TIME. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST AGAIN EARLY ON SUNDAY, WITH NO IMPACTS,
OTHER THAN HOLDING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S.
NEXT WEEK: A FAIRLY QUIET WEEK IS AHEAD, WITH RISING
TEMPERATURES AND A COUPLE RAIN CHANCES SPRINKLED IN. THE BROAD
THEME OF THE WEEK IS A SLOWLY EXPANDING MID-LVL RIDGE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE CENTRAL US. MOST OF MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER
BUT RATHER WINDY DUE TO AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE ARRIVAL OF A FAIRLY FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE OVER TOP THE
BUILDING RIDGE WILL PUSH A FRONT INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH, WHICH SHOULD KEEP ANY MEANINGFUL (>0.10")
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN FOCUSED EAST OF I-29.
PERHAPS A VERY SUBTLE COOLDOWN ON TUESDAY WITH A DEFINITE SHIFT IN
HISTOGRAM DATA INDICATING HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES
IN THE 65-70 RANGE THAN 70+. THOSE PROBABILITIES BEGIN TO SHIFT
WARMER BY THE MIDDLE AND ESPECIALLY END OF NEXT WEEK AS WE'LL
BEGIN TO SEE HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S, WITH
20-30% PROBABILITIES FOR HIGHS ABOVE 80 MOVING NORTHWARD INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
THE SECOND RISK FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK ARRIVES IN THE THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME, THOUGH A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS
PRECIPITATION CHANCE. NEVERTHELESS, HERE'S A LITTLE CLIMATE TIDBIT
FOR THE DAY. THE FIRST 7 DAYS OF MAY WILL BE THE DRIEST ON RECORD
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CLIMATE SITES IN THE CWA. AFTER A DRY
WEEKEND, BY THE END OF MONDAY, PRECIPITATION IN MOST AREAS MAY BE 1
TO 1.5" BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CDT THU MAY 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS TAF PERIOD.
BESIDES SOME UPPER-LEVEL CIRRUS OVERNIGHT, QUIETER CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST. OTHERWISE, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY MORNING AND INCREASE INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH 25-35 MPH GUSTS EXPECTED TO END THE TAF
PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...08
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...05
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