598
FXUS63 KFSD 280906
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
306 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW PUSHES INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING AND PERSISTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED, WITH MOST OF THE AREA
EXPECTED TO SEE MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH MORE THAN 6
INCHES FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29. AREAS SOUTH OF I-90
TOWARD US HIGHWAY 20 MAY SEE A GLAZE OF ICE.
- HAVE UPDATED HEADLINES IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED TOTALS.
EXPANDED THE WINTER STORM WARNING NORTH AND WEST, AND ADDED
GREGORY COUNTY TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
- EXPECT DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND; TRAVEL
WILL BECOME DIFFICULT IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS. KEEP UP
TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST, CHECK ROAD CONDITIONS BEFORE
TRAVELING, AND BE PREPARED TO ADJUST YOUR PLANS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL, KEEP A PREPAREDNESS KIT IN YOUR CAR.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH
THE LOWS DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND WIND CHILLS BELOW 0F.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 304 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2025
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST IS ON THE
UPCOMING WINTER SYSTEM, WITH NUMEROUS WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES IN
EFFECT ACROSS THE REGION AND POTENTIALLY MAJOR DISRUPTIONS TO TRAVEL
EXPECTED THROUGH THE POST-THANKSGIVING WEEKEND. DISCUSSION BROKEN
INTO SYNOPSIS, ACCUMULATION/RATES, WINDS, AND HEADLINES.
SYNOPSIS: LEE-SIDE LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ROCKIES DEVELOPS
THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH THE FIRST PASS OF WAA AND JET STREAK
MOVING INTO THE REGION BY DAYBREAK. FRONTOGENESIS INCREASES WITH THE
WAA, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A BAND OF SNOWFALL MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE. EXPECT A
STRUGGLE WITH SATURATION INITIALLY, SO SNOW MAY TAKE A BIT TO REACH
THE GROUND. ADDITIONALLY, WE MAY SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE OR A MIX OF FZDZ/SN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT SOUTH OF I-90
ALONG THE SOUTHERN MO RIVER VALLEY AND THE US HWY 20 CORRIDOR AS WE
LOSE THE SATURATION TO THE DGZ.
TONIGHT, WE BEGIN TO SEE THE SURFACE LOW EJECT OUT OF CO INTO NE,
WITH CONTINUED WAA AND THE NEXT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WE MAY SEE A
LULL IN SNOW WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN, BUT WILL SEE THE NEXT
ROUND OF PRECIP MOVE IN FROM THE WEST FAIRLY QUICKLY SO STAYED
PRETTY HEAVY HANDED WITH POPS WHILE TRYING TO SHOW THE LULL A BIT.
EXPECT SNOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH MODERATE SNOW
AT TIMES. MAY SEE ADDITIONAL BANDING, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS VARIED ON
THE PLACEMENT OF THE STRONGEST F-GEN. LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
IN ITS PLACE.
ACCUMULATIONS/RATES: SNOW TOTALS HAVE INCREASED A COUPLE OF INCHES
MOST PLACES WITH THE INCREASE IN QPF FOR THIS EVENT. MOST OF THE
AREA IS NOW LOOKING AT 4" OR MORE OF SNOW, WITH AREAS EAST OF I-29
LOOKING AT 6" OR MORE. LOCATIONS IN NORTHWESTERN IA EAST OF IA STATE
HWY 60 MAY SEE MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW (20-50%+). AREAS IN THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY MAY SEE SOME AMOUNTS TOWARD 6" OR MORE, BUT THERE
IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THAT AREA WITH GUIDANCE MORE SPLIT
HERE. GENERALLY THROUGH THE EVENT, SNOWFALL RATES OF 0.25" TO 0.75"
PER HOUR. HOWEVER, ENHANCEMENT IN THE F-GEN/OTHER FORCING THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT MAY LEAD TO 1" PER HOUR RATES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN IA. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF HEAVIER RATES SATURDAY AS WELL.
WINDS: WINDS START OFF NORTHEASTERLY TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT, WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD GUSTING TO 30 MPH
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. WITH FALLING SNOW, EXPECT
REDUCED VISIBILITY AND SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING. WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY, AND WILL BE BREEZIER ACROSS THE AREA. AGAIN,
MAIN IMPACTS WITH WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS 25-35 MPH WILL BE THE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING POTENTIAL. BE PREPARED FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
HEADLINES: WITH THE INCREASE IN SNOW AMOUNTS, HAVE TWEAKED THE
HEADLINES SLIGHTLY. ADDED GREGORY COUNTY TO A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED WEST AND NORTH,
TO NOW INCLUDE MOST OF THE I-29 CORRIDOR. FURTHER EXPANSION TO THE
WINTER STORM WARNING IS POSSIBLE, IF TRENDS WEST OF I-29 INTO THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
SUNDAY ONWARD: GIVEN THE FOCUS ON THE SHORT TERM, NO CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED ALONG WITH A LIMITED DISCUSSION. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
COLDER AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE TEENS, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO. COLDER TEMPERATURES, 10 OR SO DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE, CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH SOME LOCATIONS SHOULD
MODERATE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. A COUPLE OF QUICK MOVING
WAVES/TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES EARLY AND MID WEEK, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW GIVEN MODEL
DISAGREEMENTS AND OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE. PERIODIC BREEZY
CONDITIONS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME BLOWING/DRIFTING ISSUES ON
MONDAY. WIND CHILLS FALL BELOW ZERO AT TIMES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST THU NOV 27 2025
FOR AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
PRESENT AT ISSUANCE. FOR AREAS TO THE WEST, SOME PATCHY LOW
LEVEL STRATUS IS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS KEPT
THOSE WESTERN CEILINGS AT MVFR. THIS STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
SCOUR OUT AS MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
MEANWHILE A WINTER STORM IS APPROACHING OUT OF THE WEST. BY DAYBREAK
A BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. AS IT DOES SO CEILINGS WILL ONCE
AGAIN DECREASE TO MVFR TO IFR. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT KHON BY
LATE MORNING TO MID-DAY. KFSD AND KSUX SHOULD EXPECT SNOW AROUND
NOON TO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND VISIBILITY
WILL LOWER TO 2 SM. KFSD AND KSUX COULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF VISIBILITY FALLING TO LESS THAN 1 MILE TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
WINDS FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING,
GUSTING 20-28 KTS FOR AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. TO THE EAST GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 15 KTS OR
LESS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR SDZ055-056-062-066-067-069>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON CST
SATURDAY FOR SDZ038-039-053-054-059>061-065.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
SATURDAY NIGHT FOR SDZ040.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR SDZ050-052-
057-058-063-064-068.
MN...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...AJP
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