963
FXUS63 KFSD 111945
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
245 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW NON-SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
NORTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS, AND THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF WEAK
FUNNELS WITH DEVELOPING SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14. ANOTHER ROUND IS
POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 18.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED, BUT SMALL HAIL AND WIND
GUST TO 45-50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- AFTER A BRIEF WARM-UP FRIDAY, THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WILL SEE COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AND MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AXIS OF THE UPPER WAVE SWINGS
THROUGH THE REGION. INSTABILITY IS LOW AND SO SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, AN AREA OF ENHANCED STRETCHING POTENTIAL AND
VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH AXIS. AS UPDRAFTS FOR
SHOWERS ARE FORMING A FEW BRIEF, WEAK FUNNELS MAY ALSO FORM. AREA
MOST LIKELY TO SEE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY FUNNELS IS NORTH OF I-90
WITH THE BETTER PROBABILITY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14. SHOWERS
EXIT EAST BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. COOLER AND BREEZY NORTHWEST
WINDS FLOW IN BEHIND THE TROUGH, LIMITING OUR HIGHS TODAY.
WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA POSSIBLY SEEING GUSTS TO 35 MPH. SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION, THE NBM IS CONTINUING TO COME IN A BIT TOO WARM. THERE
IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN GUIDANCE ON HOW FAR SOUTH THE COOLER AIR WILL
PENETRATE. IN GENERAL, ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 WILL BE IN THE LOW
70S DECREASING TO THE UPPER 60S AS YOU MOVE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WARM
INTO THE MID 70S AS YOU MOVE SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S.
FRIDAY WILL SEE THE UPPER PATTERN BECOME MORE ZONAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AT THE SURFACE. FOR MOST OF THE REGION DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S WITH
A FEW 90S SPRINKLED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON A WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME A SURFACE INVERTED TROUGH WILL APPROACH
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL INCREASE AND
BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH. GUSTS OF 20-30
MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WAA WILL PUSH NORTH ON THE
NOSE OF THE INVERTED TROUGH, ENHANCING ASCENT IN AN AREA OF LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG HIGHWAY 14 IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAY FORM AS A RESULT. CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ARE BORDERLINE TO LOW
WITH ONLY ABOUT A 10% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER, DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONG IN THE 50-60 KT RANGE. THIS MAY
RESULT IN ISOLATED ORGANIZED UPDRAFT OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. DEEP, INVERTED V SOUNDINGS INDICATE
STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 50+ MPH ARE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. STORMS EXIT
TO THE EAST LATE FRIDAY EVENING.
A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, DRAGGING AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT
WITH IT. TO THE SOUTHWEST, A SECOND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND WARM
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHEAST. BETWEEN THE TWO AN AREA OF
CONVERGENCE WILL FORM SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 18 AND ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
80. IN THIS AREA INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INCREASE
OVER AN AREA OF 45-55 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE, MOSTLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 18. SIMILAR TO
FRIDAY NIGHT'S STORMS, THE CONVECTIVE SET UP IS ON THE BORDERLINE TO
LOW SIDE FOR SEVERE WEATHER (10% PROBABILITY). STRONGER STORMS THAT
DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 45 MPH.
SHOWERS MOVE EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND SHOULD BE CLEAR OF
THE REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH. THE STRONGEST
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE A FEW GUSTS TO 40
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THANKS TO CAA
BEHIND THE FRONT, IN THE 70S TO POSSIBLY LOW 80S FOR THE SOUTHERN
MISSOURI RIVER AREA.
SUNDAY A COUPLE REINFORCING PUSHES OF CAA COMES BEHIND A SERIES OF
DRY SHORT WAVES. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AND DIURNALLY BREEZY. AFTERNOON GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25
MPH ARE EXPECTED. MONDAY A STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL BEGIN TO
INFLUENCE THE REGION. CURRENT GUIDANCE IS IN LOW AGREEMENT ON
PROGRESSION OF BOTH THE WAVE AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS. AS OF NOW, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE WEATHER RISKS APPEAR LOW, BUT THE
TRENDS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK LOOKS TO BE DRY.
HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
CLIMATOLOGY, IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. IN ADDITION, DEW POINTS WILL BE
LOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN 50 F AND AS LOW AS THE MID 30S F. COOLER
HIGHS AND LOW DEWPOINTS WILL MAKE FOR GOOD CONDITIONS TO BE WORKING
AND PLAYING OUTSIDE. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK HIGHS
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S AND 90S WITH THE RETURN OF HIGHER HUMIDITY
VALUES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2026
ONGOING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE AFTERNOON, CLEARING THE REGION BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE VARIABLE BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 22-30 KTS
ARE EXPECTED. A FEW GUSTS TO 35+ KTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS DECREASE AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN SLIGHTLY BREEZY
WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...AJP
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