833
FXUS63 KFSD 230400
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1000 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
WEATHER THROUGH THIS HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH OR SURPASS RECORD VALUES MID TO LATE WEEK FOR PARTS
OF THE AREA, INCLUDING ON CHRISTMAS DAY.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH CHRISTMAS DAY. MAY HAVE TO
WATCH FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING POST-HOLIDAY
TRAVEL, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION DETAILS IS LOW.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE ON BREEZIER DAYS IN
SNOW-FREE AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
IT'S BEEN A WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA FOR DECEMBER STANDARDS AS HIGHS
HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR THE MOST PART! A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT, AND THIS WILL BRING IN SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO TOMORROW. BEFORE WE TALK ABOUT
TEMPERATURES THOUGH, SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO
MELTING SNOW. CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD FOG AS WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED OVERNIGHT DUE TO A PUSH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION BEHIND TONIGHT'S FRONTAL PASSAGE. NOW BACK TO
TEMPERATURES, WE LOOK TO DROP INTO THE MID-20S TO LOW-30S BY
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THAT, WATCH OUT FOR ANY MELTED SNOW
THAT REFREEZES ON SOME ROADWAYS DURING YOUR TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. TOMORROW WILL BE A QUIET AND COOLER DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL MEAN FAIRLY LIGHT
WINDS DURING THE DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-40S NEAR
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY TO THE LOW-30S INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA.
MORE QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH
A WARM-UP EXPECTED AS WELL. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S IN SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO THE LOW-TO-MID-
40S OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. IT LOOKS TO BE EVEN WARMER ON
CHRISTMAS DAY, WHICH WILL PUSH US TOWARDS RECORD HIGH TERRITORY
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF JAMES RIVER WHERE HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID-50S TO MID-60S. THE LATEST NBM HAS
BACKED OFF ON SOME OF THESE WARMER, NEAR-RECORD TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE JAMES, AND THIS IS IN TANDEM WITH SOME
GUIDANCE STRENGTHENING A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN
CANADA AND PUSHING COOLER TEMPERATURES OUR WAY. WE'LL STILL SEE
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, BUT IT MAY BE
A BIT HARDER FOR AREAS EAST OF THE JAMES TO BREAK THE RECORD
HIGHS FOR THE DAY. GUIDANCE COULD SWING THINGS BACK IN THE
WARMER DIRECTION AGAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS, SO KEEP UP
TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST! WITH ALL THAT SAID, RAISED THE
HIGHS A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FROM WHAT THE LATEST NBM
HAD FOR US.
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WHICH WILL LIKELY
BRING SOME PRECIPITATION NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WILL BE
WATCHING TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEE IF ANY OF THIS PRECIPITATION COULD
CREEP INTO AREAS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY-75, BUT KEPT US ALL DRY FOR
NOW. ANOTHER WAVE WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SUIT LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, BRINGING MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. THIS IS STILL A FEW DAYS OUT, SO BE SURE
TO KEEP UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE
ANY POST-HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS. TEMPERATURE-WISE, WE LOOK TO BE
SEEING GENERALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AFTER CHRISTMAS AND
ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND. LOWS BY SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING COULD DROP BACK INTO THE TEENS WITH HIGHS
ON SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN COOLER,
BUT NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES HEADING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 955 PM CST MON DEC 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS TAF PERIOD. LOOKING AT SATELLITE
IMAGERY, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE COULD COVER TO CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WITH VEERING SURFACE WINDS. OTHERWISE, A STRENGTHENING
LLJ WILL LEAD TO A FEW HOURS OF LLWS MAINLY NORTH OF I-90. LASTLY,
LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
BY THE EVENING HOURS ON TUESDAY TO END THE TAF PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...05
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