698
FXUS63 KFSD 271128
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
628 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, AN
OCCASIONALLY STRONG WIND GUST UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- AFTER WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, CONDITIONS WILL
COOL TOWARDS MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30% OR LESS) CONCENTRATED ALONG
AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE AREA, WE'RE CONTINUING TO WATCH A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN MAINLY IN RESPONSE
TO WEAK SHORTWAVE INTERSECTING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ROUGHLY
STRETCHING FROM NORTHEASTERN SD DOWN INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
MN. HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT ISN'T DOING THIS ACTIVITY ANY FAVORS.
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR UNDERNEATH A MID-LEVL HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM; MOST OF THIS DEVELOP ACTIVITY IS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING JUST AS QUICK AS IT GETS GOING. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE'RE
EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH DAYBREAK
BEFORE THINGS QUIET DOWN TEMPORARILY. FROM HERE, ANOTHER WARM DAY IS
AHEAD AS HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S WITH THE
WARMEST CONDITIONS ALONG AND WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED COLD FRONT GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY
SOUTHWESTWARDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON, THE COMBINATION OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. WHILE
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, COLLAPSING THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE DECENTLY STRONG COLD POOLS LEADING TO OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO
45 MPH WITH SOME ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT DOWNSTREAM AT TIMES.
HOWEVER, WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY BEING MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN;
SHOULD THINGS GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AROUND SUNSET (AROUND 6-8 PM).
LASTLY, THE WARMER CONDITIONS WILL EXTEND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS TEMPERATURES ONLY DECREASE INTO THE LOW 60S FOR THE NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING: WEAK MCV CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST INTO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND
SMALLER VORT MAX WITHIN THE 700:500 MB RANGE DRIFTING EASTWARD ALONG
HIGHWAY 14. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE 80S, AND WILL
EVENTUALLY END UP IN THE LOWER 90S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MOST AREA
WON'T REACH RECORD LEVELS, BUT HURON AND SIOUX CITY ARE LIKELY TO BE
CLOSE TO RECORD LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON. BY LATE AFTERNOON, WE MAY
BEGIN TO REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES NEAR EXTREME EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN IOWA, WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING
1500 J/KG. LINGERING VORTICITY MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO SPARK A STORM
OR TWO LATER THIS EVENING, BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE CONFINED
TOWARDS THE REMNANT MCV IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA,
BUT ALSO ALONG A WEAK CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. HAIL RISKS CONTINUE TO LOOK LOW, BUT DEEPER INVERTED
V SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST LOCALIZED DOWNBURST POTENTIAL THIS
EVENING.
OVERNIGHT: MOST OF THE LOCAL ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING, BUT WE WILL WATCH NORTHERN MULTICELL CLUSTERS OVER
NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA DROP SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ON A WEAKENING STAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT
COULD BRING SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO SW MINNESOTA AFTER 3AM THROUGH
7AM.
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: STUCK UNDER THE ELONGATED MID-LVL RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY, WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 300 MB ARE EXPECTED TO BE
EXTREMELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THIS HOWEVER MAY NOT MEAN WE'LL BE
COMPLETELY DRY AS SOME GUIDANCE HINTS A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT OR
PERHAPS REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE TRI-
STATE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE I-29
CORRIDOR SHOW A LOSS OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION BY MID-AFTERNOON
WITH TALL AND SKINNY MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AT THE SAME TIME.
MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY MARGINAL AND SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST
NO STORM ORGANIZATION, BUT WOULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONGER STORM OR TWO INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A NEARLY IDENTICAL SETUP ON THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND CONVERGING INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA IN THE
AFTERNOON. ONCE TEMPS REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, WE'LL AGAIN
REACH CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF A FEW DIURNALLY
BASED THUNDERSTORMS. WILL KEEP POPS LOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON
DEVELOPMENT AND SPATIAL COVERAGE.
FRIDAY-MONDAY: THE PERSISTENT OMEGA BLOCK RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
VERY NEAR TO THE TRI-STATE AREA DURING THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BETTER FOCUS ON TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. MOST GUIDANCE NOW CONTINUES TO
PUSH THE BEST NORTHWARD RETURN FLOW TOWARDS THE WESTERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING THE EDGE OF THE CWA ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE BEST RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY. WITH SUCH WEAK
SHEAR, ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP WON'T REACH SEVERE LIMITS
GIVEN POOR ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY TREND
DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY WITH GREATER INFLUENCE OF COOLER EASTERLY
WINDS FROM GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE. THAT SAID, HIGHS SHOULD
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
MAIN VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED THIS
TAF PERIOD. TAKING A LOOK AT SATELLITE IMAGERY, MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS PERSIST THIS MORNING. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, COULD SEE A FEW SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE HEART OF OUR
AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT PROMOTING MVFR VSBY AT
TIMES. WITH THIS IN MIND, ADDED A PROB30 TO KFSD TO BETTER
CAPTURE THE TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT. SHOULD SEE ANY LINGERING
ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. LASTLY, LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY BY LATE
AFTERNOON.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...05
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