174
FXUS63 KFSD 290818
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
318 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER THROUGH MONDAY
BEFORE MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC BREEZINESS WILL LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. HOWEVER, SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS.
- A PATTERN SHIFT BY LATE WEEK WILL LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND/OR SNOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
CONTINUING TO SEE A GRADUAL RECOVERY OVERNIGHT WITH MANY AREAS
OBSERVING RH VALUES IN THE 25-35 PERCENT RANGE. WITH ELEVATED
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO GRADUALLY TAPER OFF, OUR FIRE
WEATHER THREAT HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED. LOOKING AHEAD, WHILE THE DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY; WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 10-20 MPH POSSIBLE. WHILE THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALLY
HIGH FIRE DANGER MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IA, STILL THINKING ANY
CONCERNS WOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED IN SCOPE GIVEN THE LIGHTER WINDS.
NONETHELESS, WITH CRISPY FUELS AND RH VALUES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT
RANGE FOR THE DAY; OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THEIR WARMER TREND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOW TO UPPER 70S.
LOOKING INTO MONDAY, INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA)
AND INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BOOST
TEMPERATURES TO THEIR WARMEST POINT OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO MID 80S. THIS COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS AND PERIODIC BREEZINESS
COULD LEAD TO A LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAINLY ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN IA. HOWEVER,
A FEW CONVECTIVE SHOWERS COULD MITIGATE EVEN THAT AS A COLD FRONT
SAGS SOUTHWARDS DURING THE DAY. NONETHELESS, IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH MOVING FORWARD. BY TUESDAY, MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS RETURN
AS COOLER AIR FUNNELS INTO THE REGION. THE SPG WILL TIGHTEN LEADING
BREEZY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH EXPECTED.
WHILE THIS COMBINED WITH NEAR-CRITICAL RH VALUES (25-35%) WILL LEAD
TO THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER; THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY DOESN'T BODE WELL FOR THE
THREAT SINCE THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT OUR TEMPERATURES AND THUS OUR
OVERALL RH VALUES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED
THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
PLUMMETED AND GUSTS REMAIN WITHIN THE 30-45 MPH RANGE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE TOWARDS THE UPPER 50S
TO 60S. DUST RGB CVD IMAGERY HAS PERSISTENTLY SHOWN STRIPES OF
LOCALIZED BLOWING DUST, WITH NUMEROUS CAMERAS SHOWING A
THICKENING LAYER IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE AT MID-DAY. WITH WINDS
SPREADING EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON, SCATTERED BLOWING DUST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE'RE ALSO WATCHING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LARGER AREA OF DUST ALOFT MOVING UP THROUGH
NORTHERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
SURFACE DUST CONCENTRATION GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE
CONCENTRATIONS ARRIVING INTO THE CWA AFTER 00Z WHICH MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOCALIZED VISIBILITY AND AIR
QUALITY MAY BE IMPACTED THOUGH THERE IS GREATER POTENTIAL THIS
REMAINS AS AN ELEVATED LAYER OF HAZE. WILL SPREAD BD MENTION
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST INTO EARLY EVENING, BUT THE COVERAGE OF
IMPACTS MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY.
TONIGHT: LIGHT TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT,
KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN NORMAL. AIR QUALITY MAY STILL
HAVE SOME MINOR IMPACTS. DEW POINTS WILL RECOVER SLIGHTLY, BUT
RH WILL STILL REMAIN LOW.
SUNDAY: A WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS STALLED IN THE DAKOTAS AND
MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY, LEAVING A LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHERLY WIND
IN PLACE. PLENTY OF WARM AIR IN THE REGION, ALONG WITH DRY GROUND
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO EXCEED THE DETERMINISTIC NBM AND
CLIMB A BIT MORE TOWARDS THE 75/90TH PERCENTILE. WHILE RH WILL
BE LOW, LIGHTER WINDS WILL PRECLUDE HIGHER FIRE DANGER IN MOST
AREAS.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: AN UPR TROUGH CROSSING THE CANADIAN ROCKIES
WILL FLATTEN THE MID-LVL FLOW EARLY MONDAY, ALLOWING WEAK MID-
LVL VORTICITY TO MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND FORCING THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD. WHILE THERE MAY BE
QUITE A BIT OF MID-UPR CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD HAVE NO ISSUE SURGING INTO THE 70S AND 80S
IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE BUMPED UP HIGHS A FEW DEGREES FROM NBM
GUIDANCE, BUT WE'LL REMAIN AWAY FROM RECORD HIGH VALUES ATTM.
WINDS REMAIN A MORE CHALLENGING POINT OF CONTENTION WHICH SOME
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE SETTLING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AFTERNOON.
UPPER TROUGHING MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL PUSH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION PUSHING GUSTS INTO THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE INTO THE
PRE- DAWN HOURS OF TUESDAY. HAVE BUMPED UP WIND GUSTS TOWARDS
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. A FEW PASSING SPITS OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY, HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DIFFICULTY IN
TOP-DOWN SATURATION.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH EVEN MORE
SPREAD APPARENT IN ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS. SOME CONSISTENCY IN GUIDANCE
THAT BRINGS A MID-LVL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS AND PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE FAVORED TRACK OF THIS WAVE WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHEST MEASURABLE POPS THROUGH PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
IOWA WITH ONLY A 30-40% PROBABILITY OF 0.10" OF QPF ALONG AND SOUTH
OF I-90 INTO THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE
THROUGH THE 40S, WITH TRENDS IN ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
LOWERING PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING 50 DEGREES. SO IT'S
POSSIBLE TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES LOWER SLIGHTLY IN FUTURE
FORECAST.
BY FRIDAY, A LARGER UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
HEADS TOWARDS THE PLAINS. THE DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LVL
FLOW WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND ALSO BRING
INCREASING RISKS FOR RAIN TO THE REGION AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. A HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL VARIABILITY DEVELOP BY THE
END OF NEXT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT.
WHILE LREF PROBABILITIES OF >0.10" OF QPF ARE >50%, THESE
PROBABILITIES ARE SPREAD OVER AN EXTREMELY LARGE AREA SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH QPF IN A MAJORITY OF SOLUTIONS, BUT LOW
ENSEMBLE CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF THAT QPF.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LLWS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A CONCERN AT KSUX THROUGH DAYBREAK. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, AROUND 8-12
KTS. A WEAK BOUNDARY CROSSES THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, MAKING
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...05
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...SAMET
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