365
FXUS63 KFSD 182005
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
205 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS,
GRADUALLY WEAKENING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. PEAK GUSTS
OVER 50 TO 60 MPH WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
- SCATTERED SNOW CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH, CREATING BRIEF BUT
INCREASINGLY IMPACTFUL DRIVING CONDITIONS. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 1", WITH BLOWING SNOW LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING.
- EXTENDED PERIOD OF CALMER WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND WELL INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 PM CST THU DEC 18 2025
THIS AFTERNOON: WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A COMPACT
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. ONE MORE INTENSE BUT
EXTREMELY NARROW BAND OF SNOW LINGERING THROUGH NW IOWA MAY CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW RATES THROUGH 3PM. AMOUNTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1 INCH, WITH LESS THAN 0.5"
TOTALS IN MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, SNOWFALL WHEN COMBINED WITH
STRONG AND PERSISTENT 40 TO 60 MPH GUSTS IS CREATING BRIEF
PERIOD OF POOR VISIBILITY (AND EVEN VERY BRIEF NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS) AT TIMES FOCUSED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. MORE
CHALLENGING TO DRIVERS IS HIDDEN ICE POTENTIAL ON THE ROADS
FALLING TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH TIRE COMPACTION WILL LEAD TO
ICY ROADS. WHILE IMPACTS MAY VARY CONSIDERABLY IN BOTH COVERAGE
AND DURATION, CURRENT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH 00Z, BUT MAY BE TRIMMED EASTWARD AS VISIBILITY
IMPROVES.
TONIGHT: THE UPPER WAVE PASSES EAST LATER THIS EVENING, ALLOWING
WINDS TO SLOWLY DROP. RECENT CAM GUIDANCE HOLDS ONTO STRONGER PEAK
WIND GUSTS IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-29 THROUGH THE EVENING.
MINOR BLOWING SNOW MAY LINGER THIS EVENING, BUT VISIBILITY WILL NOT
BE SEVERELY IMPACTED. AS SKIES CLEAR, TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20 ALONG THE BUFFALO
RIDGE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY: WARM ADVECTION SPREADS EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO SLIGHT INCREASES IN MID-LVL CLOUDS, BUT
ALSO WARMING TEMPERATURES. HIGHS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HURON TO
STORM LAKE MAY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING, BUT AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA CLIMB TOWARDS THE 50S. ONE THING TO WATCH ON FRIDAY
WILL BE THE NEED FOR A BUMP UP IN AFTERNOON SOUTHERLY WINDS
ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.
A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A
SLIGHT WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH A LOW END RISK FOR A LIGHT WINTRY
MIX IN AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14 INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF
SATURDAY. MINIMAL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. SATURDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT WARMER IN MOST AREAS WITH A GRADUAL THAW
INTO THE 30S. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY SUNDAY
MORNING LEADING TO A VERY CHILLY START TO SUNDAY. HOWEVER LOW-
LVL WARM ADVECTION AGAIN INCREASES THROUGH THE DAY, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE OF FREEZING.
MONDAY-THURSDAY: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH THAT WE'RE MOVING INTO AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
PRE-CHRISTMAS TRAVEL PERIOD. BUILDING MID-LVL HEIGHTS THROUGH THE
PLAINS WILL SIGNAL AN EXPANSIVE WARM THERMAL DOME BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL US THROUGH CHRISTMAS. WITH NO MEANINGFUL SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK,
WE'LL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S MELT MOST OF THE SNOW THAT
REMAINS ON THE GROUND, WHILE WINDS REMAIN TOLERABLE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST THU DEC 18 2025
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 50 TO 70 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH
TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM MID MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON AND COULD RAPIDLY REDUCE THE VISIBILITY TO IFR AT
TIMES. OTHERWISE MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN TODAY, BUT RAPID
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ038>040-053>056-062-067.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ040-056-
062-067-071.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038-039-
050-052>055-057>061-063>066-068>070.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-
072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-089-097-098.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ081-090.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ001>003-012>014.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-012-
020-031.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ002-003-013-
014-021-022-032.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ014.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...DUX
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