657
FXUS63 KFSD 072340
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
540 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER. THURSDAY MAY SEE ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS AS
WELL.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK AHEAD WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY. A FEW CHANCES OF LIGHT
RAIN AND/OR SNOW WITH THE BETTER CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
EVEN WITH A LITTLE SNOWMELT AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER, FOG LOOKS UNLIKELY TONIGHT AS A MARGINALLY TIGHT SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE OCCASIONAL
MIXING TO HELP KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT AT BAY.
THIS STRONGER WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY AID IN PRODUCING SOME ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOUNDINGS HINT THAT A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE
SOME GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH, WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS TO MOST LIKELY.
SOME QUESTIONS MARKS WITH DEW POINTS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN SOME
SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE SURFACE CONDITIONS BUT SUSPECT THAT MOST
AREAS WILL SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROP TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT. THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
A JET STREAK MOVES INTO ND ON SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW A
SURFACE FRONT TO SETTLE SOUTH. NOT OVERLY COLD BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT
DEFINITELY SOME DIFFERENCES. THE 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES ARE
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 70S SO A FAIRLY WIDE SPREAD. GIVEN
THE LATEST MODELS HAVE THIS FRONT MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING WITHOUT COMING BACK TO THE NORTH, WOULD SIDE TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE, CLOSER TO THE 25TH/50TH
PERCENTILES.
THIS JET STAYS IN PLACE INTO TUESDAY WHICH KEEPS THE COOLER AIR MASS
FROM ADVANCING BACK TO THE NORTH, SO SLIGHTLY COOLER ON TUESDAY, BUT
STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS UPPER LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE BY
TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BRING SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN
AND SNOW TO THE AREA. FOR NOW NOT LOOKING LIKE ANYTHING OTHER THAN
MINOR IMPACTS. VERY LOW CHANCES FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF
EXCEEDING A TENTH OF AN INCH OF LIQUID.
MODELS FAIRLY AGREEABLE ON THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST MOVING THROUGH
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE A BIGGER THREAT FOR WARM
TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 60S
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. DEPENDING
UPON HOW FAR SOUTH THE WAVE DROPS, COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE BETTER CHANCES NORTH OF I-90.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE FLOWING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
IMPACT FLIGHT OPS. CLOUDS CLEAR LATE MORNING SUNDAY AND REMAIN SO
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LLWS INCREASES AS A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.
APPROXIMATELY 40 KTS AND 30-40 DEGREES OF SHEAR ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING AROUND 08.04Z AND ENDING AROUND SUNRISE.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE BREEZY SIDE FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS AT THE TAF SITES, UP TO 28
KTS FOR AREAS AT ELEVATION IN SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. A BRIEF LULL
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY GUSTING 24-27 KTS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...AJP
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