328
FXUS63 KFSD 102349
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
649 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ACTIVE PATTERN ALOFT WILL LEAD TO RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS OF 1 INCH OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS, POCKETS OF 2+ INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
- HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AS
STRONG WINDS AND LOWERING HUMIDITY VALUES RETURN TO THE AREA.
HOWEVER, INCREASING RAIN CHANCES COULD DAMPEN SOME OF THE
POTENTIAL.
- PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY WITH MAINLY
LIGHT AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
- ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. A MORE ORGANIZED STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MAY IMPACT TRAVEL, AND WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
BEGIN NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A COOLER DAY CONTINUES! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE
AREA, LOWER CLOUDS AND NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS HAVE LED TO QUITE
THE TEMPERATURES GRADIENT SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW TO MID
30S SETTING UP ALONG A TYNDALL TO SIOUX FALLS TO WINDOM, MN LINE AND
MID 40S TO LOW 50S ALONG THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
NORTHWESTERN IA. WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD SLIGHTLY INCREASE HEADING
INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON, WE'LL LIKELY SEE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE AREA. OTHERWISE, THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT NORTHWESTWARDS AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE SWINGS THROUGH OUR AREA
THIS EVENING BRINGING A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW. WHILE THINGS SHOULD
START AS LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY, CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF TRANSITION TO
A RAIN/SNOW MIX ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEASTERN SD AND
NORTHWESTERN IA AS IT ENCOUNTERS WARMER SURFACE TEMPERATURES WITH
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT. NONETHELESS, DYNAMIC COOLING SHOULD FORCE
THINGS BACK LIGHT SNOW AS WE CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. WITH THIS IN
MIND, ACCUMULATIVE AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (POCKETS OF 2+
INCHES) ACROSS PORTIONS SOUTHWESTERN MN. WILL BE LESS THAN INCH FOR
MOST AREAS. LASTLY, SHOULD SEE LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: LOOKING INTO THE MIDWEEK, ANY LINGERING LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEASTWARDS EVENTUALLY LEAVING OUR
AREA BY MID-MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. FROM HERE, MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS
RETURN AS CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY DECREASES. DEPENDING ON OUR NEW SNOW
PACK, TEMPERATURES COULD BE A BIT COOLER NORTH OF I-90 ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN. AS A RESULT, HIGHS COULD SHOULD CONTINUE TO
TREND IN THE UPPER 30S TO TO UPPER 40S WITH THE MILDEST CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE, INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT WITH AN APPROACHING WAVE COULD LEAD TO A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MN.
WHILE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE, SOME SOUNDINGS DO
INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR COULD THWART MUCH OF IT FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. BY THURSDAY, A DECENTLY STRONG CLIPPER WAVE WILL SWING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. WHILE MOST OF
THE BETTER FORCING WILL STAY JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. MOST AREAS WILL
BE CLIPPED BY THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM LEADING TO POCKETS OF
RAIN DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. ACCUMULATIVE AMOUNTS
WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER END (<0.10") FOR MOST AREAS. HOWEVER, CAN'T
RULE OUT UP TO 0.20 OF AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MN.
LASTLY, THE RETURN OF MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH INCREASING
SURFACE WINDS LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY (MORE IN FIRE
WEATHER SECTION).
FRIDAY ONWARDS: HEADING INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AN ACTIVE PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. PERSISTENT NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL HELP USHER IN MULTIPLE SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND POTENTIALLY
LEADING TO ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WHILE
SOME OF THE 10.12Z GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH FEATURES, ITS STILL A BIT EARLY TO PIN-POINT A
SPECIFIC AREA OF FOCUS AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS, WITH THIS SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH AROUND ST PATRICK'S DAY WEEKEND; MAKE SURE TO MONITOR
YOUR LOCAL FORECAST AND BE PREPARED TO ALTER ANY TRAVEL PLANS.
OTHERWISE, WE'LL GET ANOTHER TASTE OF WINTER TEMPERATURE-WISE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS DECREASING INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 18-23 KTS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN SLOWLY DECREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AND CEILINGS LOWER TO MVFR TO IFR AS A
STORM SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. RADAR CURRENTLY INDICATES LIGHT ECHOS FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
CURRENTLY NOTHING IS MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
COUPLE MORE HOURS BEFORE SATURATION IS REACHED. WHEN IT DOES,
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY LIKELY BEGIN AS LIGHT RAIN BUT QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN ALL SNOW. HAVE TIMED OUT SNOW
ONSET FOR ALL THREE TAF SITES. AS SNOW INCREASES IN INTENSITY
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY DEGRADE TO LIFR AT TIMES. SNOW
ENDS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
COMPLETELY CLEARING THE REGION BY MID-MORNING. ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. HIGHER TOTALS UP TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
HEADING INTO THURSDAY, THE RETURN OF MILDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL PROMOTE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AREA-WIDE. STARTING
WITH THE TEMPERATURES, INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
(WAA) WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND A WELL-MIXED ENVIRONMENT
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO MID 60S FOR THE DAY.
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S, THE RESULTING RH VALUES WILL BE IN
THE 24% TO 35% RANGE WHICH IS NEAR CRITICAL ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY DRY FUELS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN
30-40 MPH WILL LEAD TO HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER FOR MOST
AREAS. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT, THERE WERE A FEW THOUGHTS ABOUT
HOISTING A FIRE WEATHER WATCH SPECIFICALLY FOR THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY AN PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN IA. HOWEVER, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT RAIN, INCREASING CLOUD COVER, AND A
LIMITED SNOW PACK; DECIDED THE UNCERTAINTY WAS ENOUGH TO FORGO
ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS, THAT COULD
CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PAN OUT PRECIPITATION-WISE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. EITHER WAY, MAKE SURE TO LIMIT ANY ACTIVITY THAT
COULD CREATE A SPARK AS A FIRE COULD SPREAD QUICKLY.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...AJP
FIRE WEATHER...05
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