057
FXUS63 KFSD 141748
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1248 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO 80S EXPECTED.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, AN OCCASIONAL
STROKE OF LIGHTNING AND STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
- MORE CONCRETE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (50%-80%) WILL
RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED BUT ONCE AGAIN GUSTY WINDS TO 50
MPH WITH THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOLID RADIATIONAL COOLING,
WITH MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S IN MOST
SPOTS.
A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY WHICH
WILL BRING ABOUT GUSTY WINDS AGAIN, WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
POSSIBLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE WEAK SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY, MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BRING
ABOUT THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS, POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, A NICE INVERTED
V SOUNDING SUGGESTS SOME STRONGER WINDS GUSTS, LIKELY 40 TO 50 MPH.
THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THESE GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR AND
NORTHEAST OF A HURON TO SPENCER IA LINE.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING THROUGH THE NEXT SYSTEM OF INTEREST
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. WARM ADVECTION INCREASES TUESDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO ABOUT 7.5
DEGREES C. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS OR A VERY ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. WEAK INSTABILITY STILL APPEARS TO BE A LIMITING FACTOR
FOR DEVELOPMENT. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THIS SYSTEM IS BLOWING BY
AND SEVERE CHANCES APPEAR TO BE PRETTY LOW. HOWEVER, SIMILAR TO
MONDAY SOME WEAK SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WITH A DRY SUB CLOUD
LAYER AND A STRONG WESTERLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND COULD LEAD TO GUSTY
WINDS WITH ANY AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER THAT COULD DEVELOP,
POSSIBLY GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK GENERALLY DRY AND PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
THURSDAY INTO THE 70S AND FRIDAY MOSTLY IN THE 80S.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND BUT
FOR NOW CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE ON LOCATION AND TIMING. SOME
HINTS THAT THE BETTER CHANCES MAY RESIDE ACROSS NEBRASKA. OTHERWISE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONALLY MILD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT SUN JUN 14 2026
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES TODAY AND
MONDAY SHOULD SEE GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08
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