167
FXUS63 KFSD 252330
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
530 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW LINGERS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL
IMPACT.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -20 AND -35 WILL BE POSSIBLE,
COLDEST IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK. SIGNS POINTING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEKEND.
- NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING 7 DAY FORECAST,
THROUGH MINOR LIGHT SNOW CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WE CONTINUE TO SEE STRATUS
RESIDING IN THE -20C THERMAL LAYER PRODUCE VERY FINE ICE CRYSTALS AS
IT MOVES THROUGH. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
AS CLOUDS MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. WIND GUSTS
ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE TO THE 20-25 MPH MARK ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR DRIFTING SNOW WHERE
ANY LIGHT SNOW HAS FALLEN TODAY.
TONIGHT: SKIES CLEAR THIS EVENING AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY FALL BELOW ZERO. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
SLIGHTLY COLDER GUIDANCE THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND THEN STABILIZED THE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO TURN WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY. THOSE SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AND DESPITE WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFYING BY DAYBREAK, WE'LL STILL SEE
WIND CHILL VALUES BOTTOM OUT FROM -20 TO -35F. THE COLDEST READINGS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS OF THE RIDGE.
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN WIND CHILLS IS EXPECTED AROUND 6-7AM AS
WINDS WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM LIGHT TO BREEZY.
MONDAY: TEMPERATURES WARM QUICKLY THROUGH THE MORNING THANKS SO
THOSE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S IN MOST LOCATIONS,
WITH AREAS NEAR GREGORY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING. ONE THING
WE'LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
AFTERNOON WINDS THROUGH THE ELEVATION AREAS OF THE COTEAU. WHILE
THE EXISTING SNOWPACK IS SEVERAL DAYS OLD, RECENT COLD DRY AIR
MAY HAVE DRIED IT OUT ENOUGH TO LEAD TO DRIFTING SNOW OVER THE
ROADS. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD MONDAY EVENING
BRINGING A REINFORCEMENT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: A VERY QUIET WEEK IS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SHARP NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AFTER HIGHS COOL BACK INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND 20S TUESDAY,
WE'LL SEE A COMPACT AREA OF VORTICITY MOVE DOWN THE WESTERN FLANK OF
THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ENERGY TRACKING ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS MAY LEAD TO A VERY NARROW BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF
SPREAD IN ENSEMBLES IN TIME AND PLACEMENT OF THIS SNOW (IMPACTING
RATHER LOW NBM POPS), SO FURTHER REFINEMENT OF THE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO NARROW DOWN THE BEST TIMEFRAME. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE MINIMAL AND LESS THAN 1".
THE MID-LVL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND CONTINUE TO EVOLVE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. THIS BREAKDOWN COULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER LIGHT RISK FOR SNOW ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A
STRONGER TROUGH RIDES A BUILDING ROCKIES RIDGE EASTWARD. AGAIN
HOWEVER, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION CONTINUE TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
ENSEMBLES HAVE SHOWN INCREASING STABILITY IN THE IDEA THAT RIDGING
WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONUS NEXT WEEKEND. WITH
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES ABOVE 60% NEXT WEEKEND
AND NEARLY 100% FOR THE FOLLOWING WEEK, THIS BOOSTS CONFIDENCE IN AN
EARLY FEBRUARY THAW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
A MIX OF VFR DOWN TO IFR ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS
IN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA, AND NORTHWESTERN
IOWA. HERE FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO FALL, RESULTING IN
BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY. THE FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
CLEARING THE AREA. VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION OR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
AFTER THE SNOW MOVES OUT SKIES WILL CLEAR, VFR CEILINGS WILL
PREVAIL, AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AROUND DAYBREAK WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND BEGIN TO INCREASE.
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS OF
UP TO 30 KTS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE. WINDS DECREASE
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON, BUT CONTINUE TO GUST AROUND 15 KTS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR SDZ038-050-052>054-057>071.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR SDZ039-040-
055-056.
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR MNZ098.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097.
IA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...AJP
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