270  
FXUS63 KFSD 241140  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
640 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
UPPER LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE  
KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER THIS MORNING. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO  
HAMPER MUCH OF THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA.  
ONE BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES CONTINUES TO WEAKEN JUST NORTH  
OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECOND BAND TRACKING EASTWARD NEAR THE  
MISSOURI RIVER IS ALSO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS  
AS THE MAIN FORCING NOSES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN  
MISSOURI. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY IN  
THE NORTHWEST IOWA THROUGH LATE MORNING, BEFORE THE SYSTEM TRACKS  
SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL  
WILL BE MINOR.  
 
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE THIS EVENING WITH NORTH-  
NORTHEAST WINDS LOCKED IN, BUT SKIES MAY BEGIN TO CLEAR IN SOUTHWEST  
MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND RAIN, TEMPERATURES  
WILL AGAIN BE MILD, ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. HIGHS  
ARE EXPECTED IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S WHERE SNOWPACK REMAINS  
GREATEST, AND LOWER TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE. LOWS TONIGHT FALL BACK  
INTO THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
MONDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGELY DRY WITH LINGERING STRATUS AND  
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERMAL BOUNDARY TRACKS INTO SOUTHWEST AND  
SOUTH CENTRAL SD DURING THE DAYTIME, WITH EASTERLY WINDS FEEDING  
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF THE JAMES  
RIVER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY, SHIFTING  
EASTWARD AND BRINGING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON WEDNESDAY. WITH SOUTHERLY  
WINDS ON TUESDAY INCREASING AND BECOMING BREEZY ON WEDNESDAY,  
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO SOME OF THE WARMEST READINGS SO FAR THIS  
YEAR. EXPECT LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S ON TUESDAY, AND WIDESPREAD LOWER  
60S TO LOWER 70S ON WEDNESDAY. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED WINDS A BIT  
USING CONSMOS FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH EXISTING SNOWPACK REMAINING,  
ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTH, RIVER RISES ARE EXPECTED AS THE SNOWMELT  
TRAVELS DOWN THE RIVER SYSTEMS.  
 
THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF  
THE WEEK WITH ONE OR MORE SHORTWAVES TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. MODELS SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY  
IN THE TRACK AND TIMING, WITH THE GFS AND CMC BRING THE INITIAL WAVE  
AS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDING OFF WITH BRING  
RAINFALL TO THE AREA UNTIL THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR THURSDAY NIGHT.  
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY WEATHER TYPE  
WILL BE RAINFALL, WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING LATE IN THE WEEK, BUT  
HIGHS REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
MULTIPLE LAYERS OF CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE  
REGION TODAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE SOUTH. CLOUD DECKS  
COULD BECOME IFR AT TIMES, BUT WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR OR VFR.  
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, WITH THE  
MAJORITY ENDING BY NOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND  
20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  
 

 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...VANDENBOOGART  
 
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