427
FXUS63 KFSD 212330
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
530 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
- LIFE-THREATENING COLD TEMPERATURES MOVE IN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK AND START OF THE WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -30 TO
-45 ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
IT'S BEEN A VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY ACROSS THE AREA! WINDS MAY
STILL GUST UP TO 50 TO 65 ESPECIALLY NEAR AND ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE WINDS START TO
DIMINISH. ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS SOUNDINGS SHOW INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE DGZ. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL RESULT IN WHITEOUT TO
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS WELL. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY FADE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY FADES. AS MENTIONED, WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AREA-WIDE AS
THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MAINLY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVERNIGHT.
SINCE TEMPERATURES DID RISE NEAR AND ABOVE FREEZING EARLIER
TODAY FOR AREAS ESPECIALLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90, WATCH FOR ANY
REFREEZE ON ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY AND A
WEAK 700 MB WAVE LOOKS TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA. THIS COULD SET OFF
A FEW MORE SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY DURING THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR THIS ARE LOW (<15%) AT THIS TIME. THE NAM
SHOWS ADDITIONAL AREAS OF SHALLOW INSTABILITY DEVELOPING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON LEADING TO MORE SNOW SHOWERS, BUT THIS REMAINS AN OUTLIER.
WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION MOVES IN, GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COULD
BLOW AROUND SOME OF THE FRESH SNOW, BUT SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY
ISSUES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DANGEROUSLY COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A ~1050 MB HIGH
SETTLES INTO THE AREA. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN, WINDS DON'T
LOOK TO BE OVERLY STRONG, BUT WITH AIR TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE
10S TO 20S BELOW ZERO, EVEN A LITTLE WIND WILL DROP FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES TO THE -25 TO -45 DEGREE RANGE. WIND CHILLS LOOK TO
START DROPPING TO -35 OR BELOW ALONG HIGHWAY-14 THURSDAY EVENING,
THOUGH HREF PROBABILITIES SHOW UP TO A 30% CHANCE OF THESE LOW WIND
CHILLS ARRIVING AS EARLY AS THE LATE-AFTERNOON IN THESE AREA. THIS
COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY SPREAD SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH
WIND CHILLS OF 30 BELOW ZERO AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL RISE ABOVE -35 BY THE
EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT REMAIN IN THE 20S AND 10S BELOW ZERO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER-WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES ON FRIDAY, WITH SOME GUIDANCE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY DEVELOPING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE TEMPERATURES MOSTLY COLDER
THAN THE DGZ, SO EFFICIENT SNOWFALL IS UNLIKELY AND SO ANY AMOUNTS
WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
AFTER A VERY COLD FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BELOW ZERO, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE DOUBLE DIGITS ON THE POSITIVE SIDE OF
ZERO ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT
HEADING INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK, THOUGH ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEK. A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER-
PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH MAY PROMOTE SOME
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES HERE OR THERE, BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT ON THE
HORIZON FOR NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LINGER AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD
OVER SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THESE WILL TAPER OFF OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THERE IS A MIX OF VFR DOWN TO IFR CEILINGS, WITH THE
LOWEST CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THESE
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS SNOW ENDS.
STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO RAPIDLY DECREASE AS OF
ISSUANCE. GUSTS OF 20-30 KTS WILL LINGER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO 20-25 KTS. SOME BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE AFTERNOON WINDS FOR AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 14
FROM ROUGHLY BROOKINGS INTO MINNESOTA.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ050-
057>060-063>071.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
SDZ052>054-059>062-067.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SDZ038>040-052>056-058>062-065>067-069>071.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR SDZ038>040-
055-056.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SDZ050-057-063-064-068.
MN...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ071-072-
080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-012-
013-020>022-031-032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ001-
012-013-022.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ002-003-
014.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ013-014.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ013-014.
DISCUSSION...SAMET
AVIATION...AJP
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