153  
FXUS63 KFSD 161110  
AFDFSD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD  
610 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- ALTHOUGH SOME FOG REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING,  
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH  
MID MORNING.  
 
- WARM AND BREEZY TODAY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THIS  
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WEST OF THE JAMES  
RIVER TODAY, THEN MOVING WEST TO EAST FOR TONIGHT. TOTAL  
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 0.2" TO 0.4".  
 
- TEMPERATURES FRIDAY DROP TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES, WITH  
HIGHS BY THIS WEEKEND IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.  
 
- THERE IS A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS  
SATURDAY BEFORE A DRIER PERIOD SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA VERY EARLY  
THIS MORNING, RESULTING IN RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES WITH  
THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. WAS ABLE TO CANCEL THE SOUTHERN TIER OF  
OUR DENSE FOG ADVISORY EARLIER, AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR  
CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE EARLY CANCELLATION OF THE REMAINING ADVISORY  
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SD AND SOUTHWESTERN MN. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT EARLIER ARE NOW  
PUSHING OUT OF OUR AREA, THOUGH MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED LIGHT  
ACTIVITY WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH THE MORNING - THIS IN  
ASSOCIATION WITH MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION RELATED TO A LLJ  
STREAMING THROUGH CENTRAL SD. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY RISING  
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTED NORTHWARD,  
WITH CURRENT READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S, AND WE ARE ON  
TRACK TO A BREEZY AND MUCH WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO  
LOWER 80S.  
 
SYNOPTICALLY, A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESENTLY SITUATED OVER UT  
TRACKS NORTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY THIS EVENING, WHILE  
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS FROM CO NORTHWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL  
PORTIONS OF NE AND THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL KEEP LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-  
30%) FROM THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND WESTWARD INTO LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY PUSHES EASTWARD  
THROUGH CENTRAL SD. RAINFALL CHANCES THEN INCREASE BY LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA AND  
LIFTS INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW  
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD, NOT  
EXPECTING ANYTHING SEVERE WITH CAPE VALUES GENERALLY RUNNING LESS  
THAN 500 J/KG. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THEN WANE LATER  
TONIGHT AS THE BETTER FORCING LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH. IN TERMS OF  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT, LOOKING  
AT AVERAGE AMOUNTS OF 0.2" TO 0.4" WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 - WITH ONLY  
MINOR AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OF THERE.  
 
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA ON FRIDAY - EXITING TO  
THE EAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. LITTLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED  
WITH THE FRONT. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FEED INTO THE REGION BEHIND  
THE FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S.  
 
ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ON SATURDAY  
AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO  
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY, AND A SECONDARY FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY PUSHES ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT,  
WITH ENSEMBLES SUPPORTING ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.  
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S  
AND 60S.  
 
MODELS ARE NOW IN A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE THE WEATHER  
PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH BRIEF UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGING MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS  
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 ON THOSE DAYS.  
IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEHIND THIS, ANOTHER UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD FOR MID WEEK, BRINGING COOLER  
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 554 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025  
 
STILL SEEING AREAS OF MVFR FOG AND LIFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING,  
PRIMARILY THROUGH EAST CENTRAL SD, SOUTHWESTERN MN, AND PORTIONS  
OF NORTHWESTERN IA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO IMPROVE  
THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE, THERE WILL BE LOW RAIN  
CHANCES (20-30%) WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER THROUGH THE DAY, THOUGH  
INCREASING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING  
EASTWARD AND DWINDLING TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 29 CORRIDOR LATE  
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED,  
THERE COULD BE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH ANY SHOWER  
ACTIVITY.  
 
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING,  
GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS THEN TAPER  
DOWNWARD TONIGHT AS THEY TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY  
DIRECTION.  
 
 
   
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
SD...NONE.  
MN...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...JM  
AVIATION...JM  
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