526
FXUS63 KFSD 311721
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1121 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ACCUMULATIONS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 2", WITH THE GREATEST TOTALS ALONG OR
WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
- POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY LEAD
TO PATCHY SLICK SPOTS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS OUR SEASONAL
NORMALS INTO THE NEW WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
TODAY & TONIGHT: ANOTHER COLD START AHEAD! TAKING A LOOK ACROSS THE
AREA, MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST
AREAS. WITH LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS IN PLACE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
OVERHEAD, WIND CHILLS CONTINUE TO SIT IN THE -10 TO -20 DEGREE
RANGE. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK,
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH MID-
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WAVE. FROM HERE,
SHOULD SEE LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUST BETWEEN 25-35 MPH EXPECTED. WITH
ALL THIS IN MIND, THE STAGE IS SET FOR OUR NEXT SYSTEM. LOOKING
ALOFT, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ANOTHER CLIPPER WAVE
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW.
MOST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT IN A NORTH TO SOUTH
DEFORMATION BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SD AS 700 MB
FRONTAL FORCING STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. EXPECT THIS
DEVELOPING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW TO PROGRESS INTO OUR AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON (11AM TO 1PM) AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES
THE I-29 CORRIDOR MAINLY DUE TO WEAKENING FRONTAL FORCING. WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 0.50" IN/HR ACCORDING TO
THE HREF, CAN'T RULE OUT A QUICK 1-2 INCHES OF FRESH
ACCUMULATIONS WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY- 81. HOWEVER, WEAKENING
FRONTAL FORCING SHOULD SLOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE I-29
CORRIDOR BEFORE AN APPROACHING LOBE OF DPVA HELPS CREATES
ANOTHER UPTICK IN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BY LATE EVENING EAST OF
I-29. WHILE ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED EAST OF HIGHWAY-81, THE LOWER AMOUNTS COULD ALSO BE DUE
TO THE LOSS IN DGZ SATURATION DEPICTED IN THE SOUNDINGS. WITH
THIS IN MIND, COULD SEE MORE FREEZING DRIZZLE START TO MIX
INSTEAD OF ACTUAL SNOW WHICH WOULD LOWER OVERALL AMOUNTS.
OTHERWISE, ANY IMPACTS SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM WITH SLIPPERY
ROAD CONDITIONS AND TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY EXPECTED
WITH FALLING SNOW/DRIZZLE. LASTLY, SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY EXIT OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY ONWARDS: LOOKING INTO SUNDAY, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
SOME ADDITIONAL FLURRIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY DUE TO
A RIBBON OF VORTICITY PROGRESSING THROUGH THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE
MAIN STORY WILL LIKELY SHIFT TOWARDS THE TEMPERATURES MOVING
FORWARD AS INCREASING MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA) HELP
OUR HIGHS APPROACH MORE SEASONAL THRESHOLDS FOR THE FIRST TIME
IN ABOUT A WEEK. WITH THIS IN MIND, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO PEAK
IN THE 20S TO 30S FOR MOST OF THE WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
40S AND 50S BY THURSDAY. LOOKING ALOFT, BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL HELP CONTINUE THE "WAVE TRAIN" FOR MOST OF THE WEEK.
NONETHELESS, OUR PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUE TO LOOK RATHER
LIMITED WITH OUR HIGHEST CHANCES (20%-30%) EXPECTED BY TUESDAY
AS ANOTHER CLIPPER SWINGS THROUGH. WHILE SOME ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE, 60%-90% CONFIDENCE IN MEASURABLE QPF (0.01" OF AN
INCH) ACCORDING TO THE ENSEMBLES DOESN'T EXACT INSPIRE MUCH
CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING BESIDES TRACE AMOUNTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS AND POTENTIAL IFR VISIBILITY. GREATEST
VISIBILITY IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE WEST OF I-29 FOCUSED ALONG THE
JAMES RIVER WESTWARD. SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR FURTHER EAST MAY LIMIT
OVERALL SNOW POTENTIAL INTO MN/IA INTO THIS EVENING, WITH LESS
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
MORE UNCERTAINTY GROWS THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS,
AS GUIDANCE SUPPORTS PERIODS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE, FREEZING
SPRINKLES, OR SNOW/SLEET. THIS ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE WIDESPREAD,
BUT COULD LEAD TO IMPACTS ON RUNWAY SURFACES OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WITH
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS IN THE MORNING EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...DUX
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