454
FXUS63 KFSD 210444
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1044 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEK. TEMPERATURES MAY
APPROACH OR SURPASS RECORD VALUES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK,
INCLUDING CHRISTMAS DAY.
- DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING AS LIGHT MIX
PRECIPITATION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (15-25% CHANCE) ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY-14.
- ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MAY BE POSSIBLE ON BREEZIER DAYS IN SNOW-
FREE AREAS, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE INTO THE AREA, LOOSENING THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT, ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO
THE 30S TO LOW 40S BUT THE NICE CONDITIONS WILL ONLY LAST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS DUE TO SUNSET OCCURRING AT 4:53 PM CST. WHILE THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE QUIET, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL WILL BE
QUICKLY PROGRESSING EASTWARDS, SETTING UP LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW IN ITS WAKE. LOWS OVERNIGHT WILL FALL TO THE UPPER SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TO MID 20S, COLDEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
SUNDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY QUIET DAY WITH MARGINALLY BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO EITHER SIDE OF 0F ALOFT VIA
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR ADVECTION (WAA). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
TO THE MID 30S TO MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO FALL TO AROUND 40% ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES
AND MARGINALLY BREEZY WINDS MAY MAKE FOR SLIGHTLY ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE WAA WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING HOURS WHICH
MAY RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION SHOWERS IN
THE FORMS OF LIGHT SNOW, FREEZING RAIN, AND PLAIN RAIN MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY-14. HOWEVER, THE LOWEST 5,000FT WILL BE QUITE
DRY AND THE WAA WILL NOT RESULT IN ANY ADDITIONAL SATURATION.
DESPITE THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL SATURATION, HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS (15-25%) ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY-14 FOR SUNDAY
EVENING. THUS, LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION OF ANY PRECIPITATION TYPE
IS EXPECTED. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER, ONLY FALLING TO
THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE AREA.
NEXT WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BE WARM TO VERY WARM WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY THE DETERMINISTIC, ENSEMBLE, AND MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE. THUS, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THESE WARM TO
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. HIGHS LOOK TO WARM TO
THE 30S, 40S, 50S, AND EVEN 60S, OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEK. HIGHS
LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THEY REACH INTO THE 30S. EACH DAY
WILL NOT SEE HIGHS INTO THE 60S BUT MONDAY, WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES LOOK TO OCCUR
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS LOOK TO BE
THURSDAY (CHRISTMAS DAY) WHERE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO BE BROKEN. THE ECMWF EXTREME FORECAST INDEX (EFI) SUPPORT THIS AS
IT SHOWS AN 80 TO 90% CHANCE FOR ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND A
SHIFT OF TAILS VALUE UP TO 2. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL, WINDS THANKFULLY LOOK TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE AS OF NOW.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY REGARDING ANY FIRE WEATHER ON CHRISTMAS DAY IS
A COLD FRONT AND STRONG SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION (CAA) PUSHING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. IF THIS FRONT SPEEDS UP, THEN CHRISTMAS
MAY NOT SEE AS WARM OF HIGHS AND POTENTIALLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
DUE TO WINDS STRENGTHENING BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT. LOCATIONS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THIS
POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DUE TO THIS AREA REMAINING SNOW FREE
AND EXPERIENCING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
TIMEFRAME OVER THE COMING DAYS. ON TOP OF THE WARM TEMPERATURES,
WARM LOWS ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN THE 20S AND 30S.
THE END OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY BUT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 30S AND 40S. LOWS WILL ALSO
BE SLOWLY TRENDING BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHERLY, INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTS
AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF LLWS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-90 SUNDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT, AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION AT
KSUX.
CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION AFTER
22.00Z NORTH OF I-90; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE AND CHANCES REMAIN
BELOW 30% SO WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEYERS
AVIATION...SG
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