767
FXUS63 KFSD 021807
AFDFSD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
107 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW RAIN CHANCES: A FEW SPRINKLES TO VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SATURDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL
REMAIN MINIMAL.
- WINDY AND WARM SATURDAY: GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BUILD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE SATURDAY. ISOLATED 40 MPH WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE, HIGHEST OVER THE BUFFALO RIDGE. THIS PUSHES
HIGHS TOWARDS THE 70S.
- COOL, SUNNY SUNDAY: A FRONT PASSING SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGS COOL
AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WITH A BIT OF MORNING VALLEY FOG.
- PROLONGED DRY AND MILD PATTERN: NEXT WEEK LOOKS EXCEPTIONALLY
QUIET AND DRY, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND AND LOW PROBABILITY (<20%) OF MEANINGFUL RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THIS AFTERNOON: MID-LVL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED WARM
ADVECTION ON THE 700:600 MB LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST. SATELLITE SHOWERS INCREASING CLOUD GROWTH NORTH OF I-90,
SO ANTICIPATING VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TO SPRINKLES WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS CLOUD COVER EASTWARD, FOCUSED PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-90
TOWARDS HIGHWAY 14 (HURON, BROOKINGS, MARSHALL) INTO VERY EARLY
EVENING. QPF AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL.
TONIGHT: LEE SIDE TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING AN INCREASED SPG TO KEEP A
RATHER BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WIND THROUGH THE AREA. UNLIKE FRIDAY,
MORNING, LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER THROUGH THE REGION.
THE HIGHEST GUSTS MAY BE NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE
BUFFALO RIDGE WHERE 30 TO 40 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY: A SURFACE FRONT SLOWLY CRAWLS EAST ON SATURDAY, KEEPING
BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE CWA.
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF STRONGER MIXING FROM MID-MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW 40+ MPH GUSTS COULD BE POSSIBLE
(HIGHEST IN THE RIDGE AREAS). WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, AND DEEP MIXING WE SHOULD SEE A RISE IN TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE 70S IN THE AFTERNOON. THE POPULATED NBM SITS AT THE 75TH
PERCENTILE, BUT WITH THE INCREASED MIXING AND WARM LOW-LVLS WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHS A BIT WARMER AND HAVE NUDGED US
INTO THE 90TH PERCENTILE IN A FEW AREAS. HAVE ALSO LOWERED DEW
POINTS SLIGHTLY. THE ARRIVAL A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE BY MID AFTERNOON
COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES TO LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 14 IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO SW MINNESOTA IN
THE EVENING. QPF WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE PATCHY FOG BY SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS WEAKEN.
SUNDAY: COOLER CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY, FEATURING
LIGHT WINDS AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. THIS SHOULD BE AN ABSOLUTELY
BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
MONDAY-FRIDAY: A VERY QUIET FORECAST REMAINS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
AS BROAD MID-LVL RIDGING OVER THE CONUS FORCES STRONGER JET STREAM
ENERGY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW
FORCING ANY MEANINGFUL GULF AIR AWAY FROM THE AREA, AND NO ABILITY
TO BRING ANY TROPICAL AIR FROM THE EAST PACIFIC, WE'RE EXPECTING A
DRY WEEK. IN FACT THE LATEST GEFS/ECE ENSEMBLES PAINT LESS THAN A
20% CHANCE FOR >0.10" OVER THE NEXT 10 DAYS IN THE TRI-STATE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE INFLUENCED BY THE PASSAGE OF SEVERAL WEAK
FRONTS THROUGH THE WEEK. A RETURN OF GUSTY WINDS ON MONDAY MARKS THE
FIRST DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. A SECOND FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY FAVORED TO
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE REGION, AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW OF THOSE BREEZIER DAYS EVEN WARMER.
850MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE
75TH PERCENTILE THROUGH THE WEEK, FURTHER SUPPORTING THE ARRIVAL
OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE LLJ, LLWS TO IMPACT SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHWEST
MN OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS STARTING AROUND 3Z NEAR KHON
AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTWARD TO KFSD. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 24 KNOTS
WILL REMAIN AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 81 AND AFTER THE LLWS CLEARS THE
AREA AROUND 14-15Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, HOWEVER NO IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DUX
AVIATION...DUX/RAFALSKI
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