220
FXUS63 KGID 231144
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
544 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- CONTINUED MILD AND DRY FOR THE PRE-HOLIDAY TRAVEL PERIOD NEXT
FEW DAYS, THOUGH SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
- PATTERN TURNS COOLER WITH POTENTIAL FOR DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
SHOWERS LATE CHRISTMAS DAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. OFF AND ON
LIGHT ACTIVITY MAY EVEN PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER WARM-UP IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
- LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES SHOW POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED RISK OF
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION AROUND THE
START OF THE NEW YEAR. AS PER USUAL AT THIS EXTENDED TIME
RANGE, DETAILS REMAIN VAGUE, HOWEVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CLEARING THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WINDS ARE LIGHT OUT OF THE
NW. THE RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE, ALONG WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
HIGH CLOUDS, WILL LEAD TO SOMEWHAT COOLER HIGH TEMPS TODAY IN
THE 50S, BUT THIS IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SFC RIDGE AXIS
WILL NOSE INTO THE AREA AND GIVE US LGT AND VRBL WINDS...SO
SHOULD STILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY BY LATE DEC STANDARDS.
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM WAS TO ADD FOG TO ROUGHLY
E HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL EDGE INTO NE
PURITANS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT, THEN ESSENTIALLY
WASH OUT SOMEWHERE AROUND AND HWY 281 TO HWY 81 CORRIDORS.
CLEARING HIGH CLOUDS, ALONG WITH CONTINUED VERY LGT WINDS COULD
ALLOW FOR AREAS OF FOG - POTENTIALLY DENSE - TO DEVELOP ALONG
AND BEHIND THE WASHED OUT FRONT, AMIDST SUBTLE/WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW. VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS (HREF, RAP, NAMNEST) DEPICT THIS
GENERAL SCENARIO, AND IT HAS SOME SUPPORT FROM MOS GUIDANCE. EC
DOESN'T REALLY SHOW A WHOLE LOT, HOWEVER, SO STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON OVERALL COVERAGE AND DENSITY. ONCE THE FOG MIXES
OUT, SHOULD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER
50S AMIDST LGT SERLY WINDS. THE WEAK RETURN FLOW COULD SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY TO SCATTERED FOG CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS DAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY E/SE PORTIONS OF CWA.
DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAYTIME HRS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.
NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED REGARDING OUR NEXT PRECIP CHANCE -
OTHER THAN THAT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR A SLOWER SYSTEM.
SLOWER TO ARRIVE AND SLOWER TO LEAVE, SO PEAK CHANCES NOW THU
INTO THU NIGHT. STILL APPEARS THAT DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT RAIN
WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE, WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RISK
FOR WINTRY PCPN OWING TO THE MILD AIRMASS IN PLACE AT THE ONSET.
GFS REMAINS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON AMOUNTS COMPARED TO
EC/CANADIAN...WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 0.50-0.75"+ FROM THE
FORMER VS GENERALLY TENTH OF AN INCH, OR LESS, FROM THE LATTER.
THE GEFS, WHILE STILL MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE EPS, SEEMS TO BE
TRENDING TOWARDS LESSER QPF - FURTHER SUPPORTING OUR IDEA FROM
THE LAST COUPLE DAYS THAT THE DETERMINISTIC GFS IS AN OUTLIER.
WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE, NOW HAVE
LOW-END POPS CONTINUING FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRI AND FRI NIGHT. THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE FURTHER SE/E
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY, SO NOT EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL QPF DURING THIS TIME, AND TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE MILD
IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S, DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. 50S SHOULD
BECOME EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD NEXT WEEKEND THANKS TO SHORTWAVE
RIDGING. FAVORED W/SW ZONES MAY EVEN MAKE ANOTHER RUN AT THE
LOWER 60S - AGAIN, DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER AND WIND DIRECTION.
LONGER RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME AGREEMENT IN THAT A
COLDER, OR AT LEAST CLOSER TO NORMAL, AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN
COULD SETUP IN TIME FOR THE START OF 2025. BROADER
TELECONNECTIONS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT THIS CHANGE AS THEY
GENERALLY TREND MORE NEGATIVE, AND THIS HAS BEEN A SIGNAL IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. AS PER USUAL THIS FAR OUT, DETAILS
AS TO JUST HOW COLD OR WHERE THE MOST FAVORED STORM TRACK WILL
BE REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THIS GENERAL IDEA IS DEPICTED IN LATEST
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM THE CPC, THOUGH I SUSPECT THE BELOW NORMAL
PROBABILITIES WILL ONLY INCR OVER THE COMING DAYS GIVEN RECENT
MODEL DATA TRENDS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST MON DEC 23 2024
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER: IFR TO LIFR VSBY/CIG DUE TO FOG POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT GRI.
TODAY: VFR WITH COPIOUS HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTN.
LGT WINDS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH.
TONIGHT: FOG LOOKS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT,
AFTER MIDNIGHT, ESP. AT GRI. FOG SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP NE OF
THE TERMINALS, THEN EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. IT'S
UNCERTAIN IF IT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR W AS EAR. HAVE ADDED IFR
VSBYS AT GRI BEGINNING AT 10Z, BUT KEPT CIGS VFR FOR NOW AT
SCT004. IT'S QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BACK
INTO GRI FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS 11Z-15Z TUE, BUT WILL DIFFER
THOSE DETAILS TO LATER TAFS ONCE CONFIDENCE INCREASES. REDUCED
EAR TO MVFR VSBYS, FOR NOW, AT 11Z. WIND WILL BE LGT AND VRBL,
THEN TURNING TO THE SE. CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...THIES
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