596
FXUS63 KGID 261115
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
615 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY, WITH THE BREEZY WINDS
TURNING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE. TEMPS LOOK TO BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN MONDAY'S LOW-
MID 90S...TODAY'S HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 80S-NEAR 90.
- POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION RETURNS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ON
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT OVERALL CHANCES HAVE TRENDED DOWN
COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO. THIS IS DRIVEN BY THE UNCERTAINTY IN
MODELS WITH THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS. THE BEST CHANCES
REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE SSWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
- BROAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY ON
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AGAIN UNCERTAINTIES WITH HOW THE
MESSY, BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EVOLVES KEEPS CONFIDENCE ON
THE LOW SIDE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 202 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
CURRENTLY...
OUTSIDE OF THE EXTREME NNWRN FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA
GETTING CLIPPED BY LIGHT PRECIPITATION...IT'S BEEN A QUIET
EVENING-OVERNIGHT PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL FORCING REMAINS ON THE
WEAK SIDE...BUT ACTIVITY CONTINUES, DRIVEN BY CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE NOSE OF A 40-45KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. LOOKING AT THE
PATTERN AS A WHOLE ACROSS THE CONUS, UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE
DATA SHOW PLENTY GOING ON...THE MAIN/LARGEST AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH ALONG THE PAC NW COAST, WHILE
OTHER AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE SET UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AND NEAR THE EAST OK/TX BORDER. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS SET UP JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS INTO CENTRAL CANADA. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS
REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND AT TIMES GUSTY, WITH THE MAIN BOUNDARIES TO
THE WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH OUTFLOW FROM
THOSE STORMS TO OUR NORTH ARE RESULTING IN BRIEF PERIODS OF
VARIABLE DIRECTIONS.
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY....
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHICH REMAINS DRY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MAIN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY ALONG THE PAC NW CONTINUING TO SINK
SOUTH WHILE MOVING INLAND...WITH TROUGHING REMAINING DRAPED
THROUGH THE DESERT SW INTO TX. BY 12Z WEDNESDAY, MODELS ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE CENTER OF THAT UPPER LOW BEING
ROUGHLY OVER THE CENTRAL NV/CA BORDER. AFTER BREEZY SSW WINDS ON
MONDAY, WINDS FOR TODAY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST, THANKS TO
DEEPENING SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND SOUTHWARD
EXTENDING TROUGH AXIS. LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY
TODAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN. WITHOUT
THE SWRLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS/INCREASED MIXING INTO A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIRMASS...TODAY'S HIGHS AREA TOUCH COOLER, WITH
MID UPPER 80S-NEAR 90 (VS THE LOW-MID 90S FROM MONDAY). STILL
WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGHS THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE IN THE
MID 70S-NEAR 80.
MORE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST START TO ARISE AS WE GET INTO
WEDNESDAY...STILL WITH PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT WITH THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. LOOKING BIG
PICTURE...MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY DECENT AGREEMENT...SHOWING THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BLOCKED WITH
TIME. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SINKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE
HUDSON BAY/ONTARIO REGION DEEPENS THE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS...NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE SERN CONUS INTO THE DAKOTAS OR THE MAIN LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WOBBLING OVER THE NV/CA BORDER AREA. FORECAST
STILL HAS INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CREEPING NORTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA WED AFTERNOON-NIGHT...THOUGH COMPARED TO 24HRS
AGO THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HIGHER POPS HAS BEEN SCALED BACK.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOBE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY NORTH OUT OF THE WESTERN SRN PLAINS...BUT
IT STRUGGLES TO MAKE A LOT PROGRESS BECAUSE THAT RIDGING TO ITS
NORTH. NOW THAT THIS PERIOD IS GETTING MORE INTO HI-RES MODELS
TIMEFRAME...MOST ARE SHOWING THE COVERAGE OF ANY PRECIPITATION
BEING PRETTY SPOTTY...LIKE ISOLATED-SCATTERED COVERAGE, MAINLY
FOCUSED FROM ROUGHLY THE TRI-CITIES AND SOUTH. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING BOTH INSTABILITY AND DEEPER LAYER SHEAR LACKING VALUES
NEEDED FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN. OUTSIDE OF
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES...EXPECTING INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO
ALSO BE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH...WITH WINDS REMAINING
SOUTHEASTERLY, BUT SPEEDS LOOK TO BE A TOUCH LOWER. FORECAST
HIGHS REMAIN IN THE MID- UPPER 80S.
THURSDAY AND ON...
COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO, THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE OF THE FORECAST
IS THE DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIPTIATION CHANCES FOR THURSDAY-
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH HAD WIDESPREAD 60-80 PERCENT CHANCES, NOW
SITS MORE IN THE 30-50 PERCENT RANGE. THESE CHANCES ARE STILL
DRIVEN BY THAT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE FIGHTING AGAINST THE
RIDGING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND TRYING TO WORK ITS WAY FURTHER
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH TIME MODELS SHOW INCREASING
DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND COVERAGE...THAT UNCERTAINTY DRIVING
DOWN THE OVERALL CHANCES. WHILE THE BETTER CHANCES ARE STILL
ACROSS THE SWRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LIKE
WEDNESDAY...UNLIKE WEDNESDAY, THERE ARE CHANCES CWA-WIDE THU-THU
NIGHT.
FOR FRIDAY ON THROUGH THE START OF THE NEW WEEK...HARD TO HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
DETAILS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...AS
MODELS SHOW THAT LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS FILLING/WEAKENING, BUT WITH THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGHING
NOT LETTING UP, NOT MUCH EASTWARD PUSH OF THINGS. BIG QUESTION
IS HOW HOW THE WESTERN TROUGHING AND CENTRAL RIDGING SHIFT
LOCATION WITH TIME...AND WHERE ANY DISTURBANCES WORKING THEIR
WAY THROUGH THE FLOW ULTIMATELY TRACK. CAN'T ARGUE AGAINST THE
PLENTIFUL GENERALLY LOW (20-30 PERCENT) CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FRI-MON.
THOUGH THESE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCLUDES
THUNDERSTORMS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE WEAKER MID-UPPER
LEVEL FLOW, WEAKER DEEPER LAYER SHEAR AND LACK OF NOTABLE
INSTABILITY WORKING ITS WAY IN KEEPS A THREAT OF WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER ON THE LOW SIDE. WE'LL SEE HOW THINGS TREND IN
THE COMING DAYS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...NOT LOOKING AT ANY NOTABLE SWINGS IN
TEMPERATURES WITH A STOPPED UP PATTERN, FORECAST HIGHS THU-MON
ARE MAINLY UPPER 70S-LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
IT'S A WARM AFTERNOON WITH MOST AREAS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BREEZY,
GUSTING 20-30MPH. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
IN WEST/CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH POOR SHEAR
(20KTS) SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL STRENGTH OF THESE STORMS
DESPITE CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. STILL, A STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM (60MPH WINDS, SMALL HAIL) COULD DEVELOP AND IMPACT
AREAS MAINLY NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES THIS EVENING. STORMS
WILL STEADILY WEAKEN/DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS STABILITY
INCREASES. LOWS IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
TUESDAY...
ALOFT, RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS A
TROUGH/LOW MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND BECOMES CUTOFF. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF RIDGING, HIGHS CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ANOTHER
BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-30 MPH. DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR TUESDAY, UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A MESSY OMEGA BLOCKING
PATTERN (TROUGH OVER WEST/EAST COASTS, RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S.)
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S,
WARMEST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE FIRST WAVE OF
ENERGY MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE
FIRST OF POTENTIALLY SEVERAL ROUNDS OF LOW CONFIDENCE, SCATTERED
POPS TO THE AREA. MODELS HAVE AT LEAST SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE FIRST
ROUND OF POPS (15-65%) LIFT INTO SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND CONTINUES INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS VARY HOW FAR NORTH/EAST POPS MAKE
IT, BUT SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF HAVE THE OVERALL HIGHEST
CHANCES. WEDNESDAY NIGHT'S BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO STALL
OUT ON THURSDAY, THOUGH MODEL SPREAD VARIES ON WHERE THIS SETS
UP. AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA COULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS PERSISTING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
DEPEND ON STORMS/CLOUD COVERAGE, RANGING FROM THE 70S IN RAIN
TO THE 80S IN DRY/SUNNY LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY ONWARDS...
BEYOND THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN/SETUP (OMEGA BLOCK PERSISTS),
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE FINER DETAILS, ESPECIALLY REGARDING
POPS. STILL, MODELS SUPPORT/INDICATE THAT MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES ARE
FAVORED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS TIME PERIOD. MODEL
SPREAD RESULTS IN BROAD 25-45% POPS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY ONWARDS.
AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME, THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THESE CHANCES
WILL BECOME CLEARER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL,
IN THE 70S AND 80S, THOUGH MORE/LESS RAIN MAY RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER/WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD...WITH ANY CLOUD COVER PASSING THROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN
IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY MID-MORNING...CONTINUING
ON THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
25-30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE...DIMINISHING BY EARLY EVENING, WITH
SPEEDS CLOSER TO 10-15 MPH OVERNIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...ADP
DISCUSSION...DAVIS
AVIATION...ADP
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