888
FXUS63 KGID 170522
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1222 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING FROM
1-9AM AS OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP BELOW FREEZING FOR
THE FIRST TIME THIS SEASON (TO AS LOW AS 26-32 DEGREES).
- THE LOCATIONS THAT WILL HAVE THE OVERALL COLDEST TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AS WELL AS BE THE FIRST TO REACH FREEZING TONIGHT WILL
BE FOR AREAS CONCENTRATED TOWARDS THE NORTH AND WEST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA.
- THE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY REMAINS PRECIP-FREE WITH THE
NEXT FAINT SIGNAL FOR PRECIPITATION COMING THURSDAY (30-40%
CHANCE).
- HIGHS SAT-MON WILL MAINLY RANGE THE 60S WITH A WARMUP BACK
INTO THE 70S FAVORED TO TAKE SHAPE AFTER TUESDAY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
TODAY (FRIDAY) & TOMORROW (SATURDAY)...
A PASSING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TODAY (FRIDAY) WILL SOON BRING
HEIGHT/PRESSURE RISES TO THE AREA WITH A RIDGE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW IN
BEHIND FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO REGIONAL SUBSIDENCE
THAT WILL BOTH CLEAR OUT SKIES AND SUPPRESS ANY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A MASSIVE NEAR 1045 HPA HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM OFF THE HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES. AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RISE TODAY, WINDS SPEEDS OUT OF THE
NORTH SHOULD ONLY CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/NIGHT
TONIGHT. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS (SPEEDS <10MPH) COULD RETURN AS EARLY
AS THIS EVENING. AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT, THE LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL SWAP TO A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY ORIENTATION AHEAD OF SATURDAY.
THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT, HOWEVER, WILL BE FOR SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AS LOWS SETTLE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE REGION. AS THIS WILL BECOME THE AREAS FIRST FREEZE OF THE
SEASON, A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 1AM TO 9AM
TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THOUGH THE WARNING DOES NOT GO INTO EFFECT
UNTIL 1AM TONIGHT, A FEW AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES COULD
POSSIBLY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP QUICKLY INTO THE MID TO LOW 30S
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET (COMMON UNDERNEATH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES). THIS FREEZE SHOULD ONLY REMAIN A ONE NIGHT ISSUE AS THE
SOUTHERLY RETURNING SURFACE WINDS FOR SATURDAY (10-20 MPH GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 30-35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON) SHOULD BUMP UP TEMPERATURES
AROUND 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY WILL LOOK TO
RANGE THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO
LOW 40S.
NEXT WEEK...
CONSIDERABLE CONFIDENCE FROM THE LREF MEMBERS REGARDING THE UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN NEXT WEEK LEAD US TO CONCLUDE THAT THIS RIDGING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETAIN IN THE 60S THROUGH MONDAY
WITH A MORE NOTABLE WARMUP POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LONG-
RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ALSO KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE OF SURFACE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE EAST AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST (CHANNELING IN THE
SOUTHERLY WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN).
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT COME IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
THURSDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH/WAVE LOOKS POSSIBLE TO SLIDE
IN NEXT. THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINS TO WANE IN REGARDS TO THE
TIMING/INTENSITY OF THE TROUGH, AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE PLAUSIBLE AS THIS NEXT DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES NEAR THE MIDDLE-TO-END OF NEXT WEEK. DETAILS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE REFINED AS THIS EVENT BECOMES CLOSER INTO RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL STAY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY THROUGH SUNRISE.
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS OF 10 - 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 - 25 KTS
ARE EXPECTED MID SATURDAY MORNING, WITH THESE WINDS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. LLWS OF AROUND 35 KTS
IS EXPECTED AS 45- KT WINDS SPOOL UP IN THE 1,000 - 2,000 FT
LAYER BEGINNING AROUND 02Z SUNDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...BEGAN
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