190
FXUS63 KGID 062322
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
622 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
..AVIATION UPDATE
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
KEY MESSAGES:
* ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.
* A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY, BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACTING OUR AREA AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WILL BE LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
* THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION BEING ON SATURDAY.
* HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO REACH THE 80S AND 90S THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY,
WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT OVER THE WEEKEND.
WE START OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTER
OF THE NATION AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA. AN UPPER LOW SITS
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW
SPOTTY, NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
CHANCES DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.
WEDNESDAY, A COLD FRONT IN IOWA WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST, BACKING INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. UNFORTUNATELY
FOR OUR AREA, WE WON'T HAVE MUCH REPRIEVE FROM SUMMER-LIKE
TEMPERATURES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID-80S IN THE WEST
AND THE LOW 90S IN THE EAST. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, HOWEVER, WITH THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA
UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ANY THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE EASTERN FRINGES OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THURSDAY, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA WITH
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST. THIS IS A SLIGHT CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST, AS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 20-
40% IN THE AFTERNOON AND 20-30% IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND WHERE THEY WERE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR NEBRASKA AND THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
FOR KANSAS. FRIDAY BRINGS SLIGHTLY HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30-
50% IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING), AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID-80S.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH WILL USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND A BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID-70S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MID-80S IN THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID-50S TO LOW 60S. FOR THE TIME BEING, SATURDAY
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH AMOUNTS
ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AND COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID-50S. THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS
A LITTLE UNCERTAIN, PATTERN-WISE WITH MODELS PUTTING US BETWEEN TWO
SYSTEMS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SPOTTY THUNDERSTORMS, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND LOCATIONS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT TUE JUN 6 2023
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD EXPECT FEW TO SCT CLOUDS LINGERING
AROUND 8K FT TO 10K FT AGL INTO THE EVENING. CLOUDS WILL THIN OUT
TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, CLOUD COVER WILL RETURN, BKN
AT AROUND 7K FT AGL.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM SW TO SE THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL
VARIATION TO CALL THAT VRB FOR NOW THOUGH. AS TAF SITES ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT, THE LIGHT SW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LIMIT BR DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEKESSER
AVIATION...HICKFORD
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