859
FXUS63 KGID 080513
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1213 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 60S.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SATURDAY
WILL LIKELY BE THE WINDIEST DAY WITH GUSTS OF 30 - 40 MPH
POSSIBLE.
- NEXT REAL RAIN STILL LOOKS TO ARRIVE NEXT TUESDAY. RAIN LOOKS
TO CONTINUE INTO THROUGH THURSDAY. SINCE THIS IS STILL
SEVERAL DAYS OUT, TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT WED OCT 7 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT
NOTHING INTERESTING TO REPORT FOR TODAY AS BROAD NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT ATOP DRY PROFILES KEEPS US WARM AND CLEAR. HIGHS
TODAY WILL AGAIN REACH INTO THE LOW-TO-MID 80S, WITH TONIGHT'S
LOWS FALLING TO THE LOW-TO-UPPER 50S FROM NORTH TO SOUTH,
RESPECTIVELY. VALLEY AND GREELEY COUNTIES CAN DIP INTO THE UPPER
40S BY DAWN ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL STAY LIGHT BETWEEN 5 - 10 MPH, SLOWLY TURNING FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH SUNRISE ON THURSDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
NEARLY A COPY-AND-PASTE AFD FROM YESTERDAY OUTSIDE OF
COMPLETELY REMOVING PRECIP CHANCES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
MORNINGS. 12Z CAMS HAVE ELIMINATED PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON THURSDAY MORNING OWING TO INSUFFICIENT
MOISTURE. A SIMILAR STORY APPLIES TO FRIDAY MORNING, WHICH ALSO
PREVIOUSLY LOOKED TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. LATEST TRENDS
HAVE SHOVED ANY FRIDAY MORNING PRECIP OFF INTO FAR EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE 30-KT LOW-
LEVEL JET AND WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS THE 12Z RRFS, WHICH TRIES TO DEVELOP ISOLATED POCKETS NEAR
POLK COUNTY AROUND DAWN FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS,
HOWEVER, REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY AND THUS HOLDING STEADY WITH
MODERATE-TO-HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL NOT SEE PRECIP FRIDAY
MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A MIXED BAG OF SIGNALS REGARDING FOG
POTENTIAL DURING SUNRISE HOURS ON FRIDAY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
PLATTE RIVER. RIGHT NOW, STILL LEANING AWAY ON ANY FOG POTENTIAL
IN THIS TIMEFRAME GIVEN HOW DRY WE'RE EXPECTED TO BE AS WELL AS
OUR INCREASING SURFACE WINDS FRIDAY MORNING, BUT IF THERE WAS
TO BE A ROGUE POCKET OR TWO, THE LIKELIEST AREAS WOULD BE
SHERMAN AND VALLEY COUNTIES.
OWING TO CONTINUED SUNSHINE, HIGHS THROUGH SUNDAY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, WITH FRIDAY - SUNDAY
OVERNIGHT LOWS STAYING WARMER IN THE 60S.
PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THE
END OF THE DAY ON SUNDAY. INCREASINGLY BREEZY CONDITION
LIKELIEST AREAS AS ARE EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH FRIDAY SEEING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10 - 20 MPH AND GUSTS OF
20 - 30 MPH. SATURDAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THE WINDIEST DAY
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 - 25 MPH AND WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 -
40 MPH. THE LIKELIEST AREAS TO SEE GUSTS >40 MPH WOULD BE OUR
FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES (VALLEY, GREELEY, SHERMAN, AND HOWARD).
THE 12Z EPS AND GEFS ALIKE HAVE DOUBLED DOWN ON THE INTENSITY OF
THE SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AS
WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, NOW DEPICTING ~995 MB. THIS INCREASES
CONFIDENCE IN THOSE 30 - 40 MPH GUSTS FOR US DOWN HERE IN
NEBRASKA. THE 13Z NBM SUGGESTS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES (VALLEY,
GREELEY, SHERMAN, AND HOWARD) HAVE 80% CHANCES FOR 40-MPH GUSTS
AND AROUND 20% CHANCES FOR 50-MPH GUSTS ON SATURDAY.
INTO NEXT WEEK
NOT MUCH TO CHANGE REGARDING NEXT WEEK'S RAIN. ENSEMBLE DATA IS
NOISY ON THIS, BUT ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN MAY BECOME
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH SLOWLY
MEANDERS ITS WAY ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. NOTHING HEAVY WOULD
BE EXPECTED FROM THESE SPOTTY SHOWERS.
THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP STILL LOOKS TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY
AND LAST US INTO NEXT THURSDAY. REGRETTABLY, THIS TIME FRAME IS
WHERE THE ENSEMBLE DATA BEGIN TO DISAGREE QUITE A BIT. THE 12Z
GEFS SUGGESTS THE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FASTER ON TUESDAY WITH A
NOTICEABLY STRONGER EMBEDDED JET STREAK, WHILE THE EPS HOLDS THE
TROUGH AXIS BACK TO THE WEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THEY DO AGREE,
HOWEVER, THAT THE BEST VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL COME WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. REGARDLESS, MORE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED
OUT IN THE COMING DAYS, BUT LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN
GENERAL LOOK LIKE GOOD CHANCES FOR A RETURN TO RAIN.
FINALLY, 12Z ENSEMBLE DATA SUGGESTS OVERNIGHT LOWS NEXT FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY MORNINGS MAY DIP BELOW 40 DEGREES. THIS IS FAR TOO
EARLY TO MAKE ANY CALLS FOR FROST, BUT THE SIGNAL IS THERE FOR A
BIT OF A COOLDOWN, SO LET'S JUST KEEP THIS INFO IN OUR BACK
POCKET AND MONITOR THE TRENDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
NO NOTABLE CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH DRY WEATHER
AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAINING IN THE FORECAST. ANY PASSING CLOUDS
LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT, TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY BY
MID-MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THIS PERIOD. WHILE
MUCH OF THE TIME SPEEDS TOP OUT AROUND 10-15 MPH, THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS
NEAR 20 MPH.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BEGAN
AVIATION...ADP
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