832
FXUS63 KGID 021138
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
538 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM TODAY FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
- FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPECTED WITH SOME SNOW.
TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A TRACE TO NEAR A TENTH
OF AN INCH.
- DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
- SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITIES MAY CAUSE TRAVEL
CONCERNS TODAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 456 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ORD
TO KEARNEY TO SMITH CENTER UNTIL NOON TODAY. FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE
HINDERED ACROSS SOME AREAS DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD. FREEZING FOG
IS A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES NOW MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. A THIN
GLAZE OF ICE DUE TO THE FOG MAY BE PRESENT ON ROADS AND SIDEWALKS
FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE. THE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
NOON AS THE WINDS SWITCH FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST AND AS TEMPERATURES GET WARMER. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING AROUND
6 AM AND CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SNOW MAY BE
PRESENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. ICE
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND A TRACE TO AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH. THE HIGHEST ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM VALLEY COUNTY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS YORK COUNTY. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM VALLEY COUNTY
SOUTHWARD TOWARD HAMILTON AND YORK COUNTIES. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH
AND WEST OF THIS ADVISORY MAY EXPERIENCE VERY LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER SO DID NOT INCLUDE THEM IN
THE ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST INCLUDE A SLIGHT INCREASE TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TODAY AND THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT MODEL
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION. ANOTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS
LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ACROSS MAINLY THE AREA WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. SOME LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI-CITIES AREA MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING TODAY.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA. AN INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST THU JAN 1 2026
-- 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, INCLUDING ANY
CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES WORTH MENTIONING:
- AS HIT ON IN KEY MESSAGE #1 ABOVE, CONCERN FOR AT LEAST A
PESKY/NUISANCE WINTRY PRECIP "EVENT" IS TRENDING UP FOR
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING. MORE DETAILS BELOW, BUT
OF GREATEST CONCERN IS FOR A GLAZE OF LIGHT ICING ESPECIALLY
WITHIN COUNTIES ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 (LESS CHANCE OF PRECIP
FARTHER SOUTH, AND TEMPERATURES THERE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH
ANYWAY THAT "PLAIN" LIGHT RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN EXPECTATION.
- AFTER WE INDEED ENDED UP HAVING A ROUND OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
FOG THIS MORNING (INCLUDING LOCALIZED DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITY 1/4 MILE OR LESS), IT'S ALSO LOOKING INCREASINGLY-
LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD FOG SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH PERHAPS EVEN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG/VISIBILITY 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
- DESPITE THESE VARIOUS CONCERNS DESCRIBED ABOVE, CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO JUSTIFY A FORMAL DENSE FOG
ADVISORY OR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...BUT ONE/POSSIBLY BOTH OF
THESE "HEADLINES" COULD BE FORTHCOMING WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18
HOURS.
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH THURS. JAN.
8...BUT HEAVILY FOCUSED ON NEXT 36 HOURS):
- CURRENT-RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 3 PM:
WIDESPREAD FOG/LOCALIZED DENSE FOG ALONG WITH AN EXPANSIVE LOW
STRATUS DECK THAT BLANKETED MUCH OF THE CWA TO START THE
DAY...HAS LONG-SINCE LIFTED (THE FOG) AND DEPARTED OFF TO OUR
EAST (THE LOW STRATUS). AS A RESULT, THIS AFTERNOON HAS FEATURED
A MIX OF PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH AT LEAST FILTERED
SUNSHINE DESPITE INCREASING COVERAGE OF HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. WHAT
24 HOURS AGO LOOKED LIKE A POTENTIALLY TRICKY HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST NOW LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TURN OUT FAIRLY CLOSE TO
EXPECTATIONS...WITH HIGHS ON TRACK TO RANGE FROM LOW 40S FAR
EAST, TO MID-UPPER 40S CENTRAL TO LOW-MID 50S WEST.
ALOFT, WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA
CONFIRM BROAD WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WHILE OFF TO THE WEST OUR ATTENTION IS DRAWN TO A PAIR
OF DISTURBANCES GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN
U.S...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE SOMEWHAT INTO A
LOOSELY-ORGANIZED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BRING OUR AFOREMENTIONED
PESKY PRECIP CHANCES/WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, BREEZES CURRENTLY AVERAGE ONLY 5-10 MPH OUT OF A
GENERALLY WESTERLY DIRECTION (MORE SOUTHWESTERLY IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES, MORE NORTHWESTERLY IN NORTHERN COUNTIES).
- TONIGHT (DENSE FOG POTENTIAL THE MAIN CONCERN):
IN SOME WAYS, TONIGHT'S OVERALL SITUATION STRONGLY RESEMBLES
THAT OF LAST NIGHT (THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING GREATER COVERAGE
OF HIGH LEVEL/MID LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST).
OTHERWISE, JUST LIKE LAST NIGHT, ANOTHER WEAK-BUT-EVIDENT
"BACKDOOR" COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD/WESTWARD INTO OUR CWA
AS THE NIGHT GOES ON, ITS ARRIVAL MARKED BY A SWITCH TO LIGHT
NORTHERLY-THEN-EASTERLY BREEZES. ALSO LIKE LAST NIGHT, A DECK OF
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS/LIGHT FOG (CURRENTLY SITUATED ROUGHLY 90
MILES NORTH-THROUGH-NORTHEAST OF THE EDGES OF OUR CWA) WILL BE
DRAWN BACK SOUTHWARD/WESTWARD INTO OUR AREA. OF GREATER CONCERN
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG...SOME POTENTIALLY
DENSE...TO GRADUALLY BREAK OUT OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA IN THE
LIGHT-BUT-MOIST LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY (UPSLOPE) SURFACE FLOW.
LEANING ON OFTEN-RELIABLE MODELED-VISIBILITY FROM HRRR/RAP,
IT'S LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WIDESPREAD FOG WITH AT
LEAST LOCALIZED DENSE FOG (1/4 MILE OR LESS VISIBILITY) WILL
INDEED DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA. THE ONLY POSSIBLE
MITIGATING FACTOR MIGHT BE THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVERAGE,
THAT SOMETIMES KEEPS THE LOW LEVELS FROM EFFICIENTLY SATURATING.
HOWEVER, IT'S TOUGH TO IGNORE THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE FOG
SIGNAL. ALTHOUGH WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS TO POTENTIALLY PULL
THE TRIGGER ON A FORMAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY AM, RIGHT
NOW I'D SAY THE ODDS ARE LEANING MORE TOWARD NEEDING ONE THAN
AGAINST. OTHERWISE, LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO VERY
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THEY WERE LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING...WITH
MOST OF THE CWA AIMED 26-30 DEGREES.
- FRIDAY DAYTIME-EVENING (THROUGH MIDNIGHT..FOG AND WINTRY MIX
CONCERNS):
ASSUMING THAT WIDESPREAD FOG/AT LEAST LOCALIZED DENSE FOG INDEED
MATERIALIZES BY/NEAR SUNRISE, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AN ISSUE
WELL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS...AND PERHAPS EVEN INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN A FEW SPOTS (ALTHOUGH HAVE NO MENTION OF FOG
IN OFFICIAL FORECAST BEYOND NOON AT THIS TIME).
THEN, OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT LOOKS TO BE AN INCREASINGLY-
LIKELY ROUND OF LIGHT-BUT-PESKY PRECIP...INCLUDING A WINTRY
MIX...THAT COULD START BEFORE NOON ESPECIALLY IN OUR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES, BUT WOULD MAINLY OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON-
EVENING AS A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES ACROSS THE
HEART OF OUR REGION FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST. OFFICIAL
MEASURABLE PRECIP CHANCES (POPS) HAVE BEEN MODESTLY-INCREASED
VERSUS PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR
CWA, BUT PERHAPS NOT NEARLY ENOUGH (LATER FORECASTS WILL NEED TO
INTRODUCE "LIKELY" PERCENTAGES IF TRENDS FROM VARIOUS LATEST
MODELS (HRRR/NAMNEST/ECMWF/GFS) ARE ANY INDICATION). WHILE WE
ARE NOT TALKING BIG AMOUNTS OF PRECIP BY ANY MEANS (NO MORE THAN
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH MOST PLACES)...THE ISSUE IS THAT
THE THERMAL PROFILE FROM THE SURFACE AND UPWARD INTO THE LOWEST
SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET WILL BE RIDING A "FINE LINE" BETWEEN PLAIN
RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND PERHAPS A SLEET/SNOW MIX. WHAT WE DO
HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THAT OUR COUNTIES ALONG/ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-80 STAND THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEEING A WINTRY MIX, WHILE OUR
COUNTIES SOUTH OF I-80 DOWN INTO KS ARE MORE FAVORED TO SEE
JUST PLAIN RAIN OR REMAIN DRY ALTOGETHER. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO REFINE PRECIP TYPE WITH THE LATEST DATA, BUT RIGHT NOW OUR
NORTHERN CWA IS OVERALL-MOST FAVORED FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
A POTENTIAL ICE GLAZE THAT COULD CAUSE SOME NUISANCE TRAVEL
IMPACTS. MEANWHILE, CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
CURRENTLY LOOK TO FOCUS JUST OUTSIDE OUR CWA TO THE NORTH/EAST
(ALTHOUGH OUR NORTHERN/EASTERN ZONES COULD ALSO CATCH A FEW
SNOWFLAKES FRIDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL WHILE PRECIP
DEPARTS). SPEAKING OF WHICH, ANY PRECIP SHOULD END BY MIDNIGHT
IN OUR CWA AS THE UPPER WAVE/LIFT EXITS TO THE SOUTHEAST.
SUMMARIZING: FRIDAY'S WINTRY MIX POTENTIAL HAS RAMPED UP FAIRLY
"LATE IN THE GAME" FORECAST-WISE, AND WE DON'T HAVE MUCH TIME
TO RAISE PUBLIC AWARENESS...JUST IN CASE IT DOES CAUSE SOME
TRAVEL ISSUES.
OF COURSE, ONE VERY KEY PIECE TO WHETHER PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN
OR FREEZING RAIN IN OUR NORTH WILL BE SURFACE/LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. FOR NOW, USED A MULTI-MODEL BLEND TO DERIVE
HOURLY/MAX TEMPS FOR FRIDAY...YIELDING A RANGE IN AFTERNOON
HIGHS FROM LOW 30S FAR NORTHEAST, TO MID-UPPER 30S CENTRAL...TO
40S SOUTHWEST (AND PERHAPS EVEN SOME 50S ESPECIALLY EXTREME
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES SUCH AS FURNAS/ROOKS). IF ANYTHING THESE HAVE
TRENDED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
- LATE FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT AM (AFTER MIDNIGHT):
ONCE ANY PESKY PRECIP DEPARTS OUR EASTERN CWA FRIDAY EVENING,
THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR YET ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL/SURFACE WINDS TURN LIGHT WESTERLY
(DOWNSLOPE)...TYPICALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR FOG...THIS WESTERLY FLOW
MIGHT NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT AT LEAST SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT THAT WOULD LAST INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY
DAYTIME. AT ANY RATE, HAVE NOT INTRODUCED TO THE FORECAST YET,
AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN FOG LIKELIHOOD/COVERAGE. LOW TEMPS ARE
AIMED LOW-MID 20S ACROSS THE CWA.
- SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY (THE WEEKEND):
IN SHORT, WE RETURN TO A WARMER AND IN THEORY MORE
"STRAIGHTFORWARD" FORECAST AGAIN, AS OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE
QUASI-ZONAL (WEST-EAST) IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRIDAY
DISTURBANCE. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AIMED MAINLY LOW-MID 50S MOST
AREAS, WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF MID-UPPER 50S SUNDAY AND EVEN
SOME 60S MAINLY FAR WEST/SOUTHWEST. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE FAIRLY
LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZES, BUT SUNDAY OVERALL-BREEZIER OUT OF THE
SOUTH (GUST AT LEAST 20-25 MPH).
- MONDAY-THURSDAY:
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT IT REMAINS MAINLY (IF NOT ENTIRELY) DRY,
AS ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME UPPER WAVES PASSING BY IN
CONTINUED QUASI-ZONAL FLOW, THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS PRIMARILY
DIRECT ANY PRECIP POTENTIAL AT LEAST SLIGHTLY NORTH/SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. OFFICIALLY, WE HAVE SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY,
BUT THIS IS MORE DRIVEN BY THE LATEST GFS THAN THE ECMWF (WHICH
IS CURRENTLY DRY). TEMPERATURE-WISE, SEASONABLY-MILD MARCHES
ON, WITH HIGHS MAINLY 50S-LOW 60S MOST DAYS, AND PERHAPS COOLING
SLIGHTLY TOWARD 40S BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE
NOTICEABLY MILD BY JANUARY STANDARDS, WITH MOST NIGHTS AIMED
NEAR-TO-ONLY-SLIGHTLY-BELOW FREEZING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE IMPACTING KGRI AND KEAR AND
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 16Z TO 18Z. BRIEF
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/4 MILE ARE POSSIBLE. LOW VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO GO AWAY BY/AROUND 18Z. CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE
SOME THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BRIEFLY BE VFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL LOW CEILINGS RETURN BY 00Z. CEILINGS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AROUND 09Z TO 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT AND WILL TRANSITION FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST TO
THE SOUTHEAST BY 15Z AND MAY BECOME VARIABLE BY 00Z. LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN, FREEZING DRIZZLE, AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
UNTIL AROUND 03Z TO 06Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
061>064-074>077-084>087.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-047>049-063-064.
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR KSZ006-007-018-019.
UPDATE...SCHULDT
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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