708  
FXUS63 KGID 051137  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
637 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
   
..AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAS OVER-PERFORMED MODEL GUIDANCE FROM  
YESTERDAY, AND WE WILL LIKELY HAVE AT LEAST A FEW STORMS IN THE  
AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK. FORTUNATELY, THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN BELOW  
SEVERE CRITERIA AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.  
 
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS, TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE  
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN  
NUDGED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO ADJUST FOR YESTERDAY’S PERFORMANCE.  
REGARDLESS, WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 97 TO 105 RANGE FROM  
NORTH TO SOUTH, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STILL PUSH ABOVE 105  
DEGREES FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE AREA.  
 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS SOMEWHAT  
UNCERTAIN. IT DOES APPEAR THE THE “MAIN SHOW” WILL BE WELL TO  
OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST IN A CORRIDOR OF HIGH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND  
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EVEN SO, WE WILL HAVE FAIRLY STRONG FORCING  
FROM SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND LATEST CAMS STILL DEVELOP AT LEAST  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN THE LATE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MODE WOULD FAVOR MULTICELLS AND A FEW  
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS, BUT CELL INTERACTIONS AND THE OVERALL  
“MESSY” NATURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL. MAIN  
THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN SATURATED SOILS IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE  
AREA.  
 
IN THE WAKE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS, WEDNESDAY HAS TRENDED COOLER  
FOR MOST OF NEBRASKA, BUT THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE PUSHING  
INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES  
WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE A RUN INTO THE UPPER 90S AND 100S SOUTH OF  
THE STATE LINE. THEREFORE, THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED TO RUN  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR OUR 6 KANSAS COUNTIES. THIS FRONT WILL THEN  
BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY  
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE ENTIRE AREA HAS A GOOD CHANCE  
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE NBM HAS CONTINUED TO  
ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS.  
 
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT EVEN THEN WE ARE  
EXPECTED TO HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS JUST A COUPLE  
DEGREES BELOW OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. ANOTHER ROUND OF  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN  
PLAINS.  
 
WE DRY OUT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY  
RETURNING TO ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY. IN FACT, SOME AREAS  
COULD EASILY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES AGAIN. CHANCES  
FOR RAIN/THUNDER THEN RETURN TO THE AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN  
DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY  
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLED WELL BY MODELS, BUT  
BELIEVE THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING.  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE VICINITY  
THIS EVENING.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-  
060>064-072>077-082>087.  
 
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...MANGELS  
AVIATION...MANGELS  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab NE Page
The Nexlab KS Page Main Text Page