708
FXUS63 KGID 051137
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
..AVIATION UPDATE
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAS OVER-PERFORMED MODEL GUIDANCE FROM
YESTERDAY, AND WE WILL LIKELY HAVE AT LEAST A FEW STORMS IN THE
AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK. FORTUNATELY, THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN BELOW
SEVERE CRITERIA AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR SEVERAL DAYS, TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. THAT SAID, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
NUDGED DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY TO ADJUST FOR YESTERDAY’S PERFORMANCE.
REGARDLESS, WE ARE LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE 97 TO 105 RANGE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH, AND HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD STILL PUSH ABOVE 105
DEGREES FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF THE AREA.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. IT DOES APPEAR THE THE “MAIN SHOW” WILL BE WELL TO
OUR NORTH/NORTHEAST IN A CORRIDOR OF HIGH OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. EVEN SO, WE WILL HAVE FAIRLY STRONG FORCING
FROM SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND LATEST CAMS STILL DEVELOP AT LEAST
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STORM MODE WOULD FAVOR MULTICELLS AND A FEW
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS, BUT CELL INTERACTIONS AND THE OVERALL
“MESSY” NATURE SHOULD LIMIT ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL. MAIN
THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND, AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN SATURATED SOILS IN SOME PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.
IN THE WAKE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS, WEDNESDAY HAS TRENDED COOLER
FOR MOST OF NEBRASKA, BUT THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL BEFORE PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES
WILL ONCE AGAIN MAKE A RUN INTO THE UPPER 90S AND 100S SOUTH OF
THE STATE LINE. THEREFORE, THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED TO RUN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR OUR 6 KANSAS COUNTIES. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
BE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. THE ENTIRE AREA HAS A GOOD CHANCE
TO SEE AT LEAST SOME THUNDERSTORMS, AND THE NBM HAS CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE LIKELY POPS.
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, BUT EVEN THEN WE ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WHICH IS JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS.
WE DRY OUT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
RETURNING TO ABOVE-NORMAL LEVELS BY SUNDAY. IN FACT, SOME AREAS
COULD EASILY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES OVER 100 DEGREES AGAIN. CHANCES
FOR RAIN/THUNDER THEN RETURN TO THE AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS IS LOW AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE JUL 5 2022
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE HAVE NOT BEEN HANDLED WELL BY MODELS, BUT
BELIEVE THEY SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE VICINITY
THIS EVENING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-
060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...MANGELS
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