319
FXUS63 KGID 140537
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1237 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT: THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WILL BE QUIET/DRY. HOWEVER, MAINLY OUR KS COUNTIES ALONG WITH
PERHAPS UP TOWARD NUCKOLLS/THAYER AREA ON THE NEBRASKA SIDE
COULD SEE SPOTTY SHOWERS/A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ANYTIME AFTER
9-10 PM. STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY WEAK, BUT A ROGUE STRONG TO
PERHAPS EVEN MARGINALLY-SEVERE STORM WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE
OF NICKELS/QUARTERS CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT IN OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEAST (MAINLY MITCHELL/OSBORNE KS) MAINLY PRIOR TO 3 AM.
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SPREAD SW TO NE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND ESP. WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE GREATEST COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL OCCUR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AM. ENSEMBLE 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE
BETWEEN 0.25-0.75". LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS (~90TH PERCENTILE)
AROUND 1" WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- THE FIRST FROST OF THE SEASON IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND TYPICALLY-FAVORED
COLDER LOCATIONS (W AND N OF THE TRI-CITIES) MAY EVEN DIP
BELOW FREEZING.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES FROM 60S INTO THE
70S EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
ALMOST THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOCKED IN WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND CHILLY NNE BREEZE. AS A RESULT, TEMPERATURES HAVE
REALLY STRUGGLED TODAY, EVEN IN THE FAR S/SE, WITH CURRENT
READINGS ONLY IN THE 50S. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE (20-50%) FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BUT AS ALLUDED TO YESTERDAY, THE MAIN FOCUS HAS SHIFTED TO THE
S/SE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FRONT. THERE'S A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR
A STRONG STORM, OR TWO, WITH SMALL HAIL PER LATEST SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK...BUT THINK THIS IS LIMITED TO MITCHELL COUNTY, AT BEST.
SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE ATTEMPTS TO CLEAR US OUT QUITE A BIT
LATE THIS EVENING, THEN BRINGS IN A NEW BATCH OF CLOUDS RIGHT
AROUND DAWN WHEN LOWS ARE TYPICALLY MADE...WHICH MAKES FOR A
TRICKY LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WILL DEFINITELY BE A CHILLY
NIGHT/MORNING, BUT WE DON'T COMPLETELY DECOUPLE THE WINDS, AND
THE ARRIVAL OF MORE CLOUDS NEAR DAWN SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FROST CONCERNS.
CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS PERSIST ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, AND EVENTUALLY SOME AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
(WITH EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS) WILL WORK THROUGH THE AREA AS
WELL. GENERAL EXPECTATION IS FOR SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM SW TO NE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE TO PRECLUDE THE ORGANIZED RAIN. SO
NOT A VERY PLEASANT DAY FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, FACTORING IN A
STEADY/CHILLY NE BREEZE, AS WELL. APPEARS THE GREATEST COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF RAIN WILL COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
AM, BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE MOST STUBBORN TO TAPER OFF
THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS AREAS N OF I-80. LATEST EPS ENSEMBLE
REMAINS CONSISTENT IN THAT THE 25-75TH PERCENTILE IS LARGELY IN
THE 0.25-0.75" RANGE FOR TOTAL RAINFALL. 90TH PERCENTILE DATA,
ALONG WITH OTHER DETERMINISTIC OUTPUT, SUGGESTS LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 1" WILL BE POSSIBLE - PARTICULARLY WITH
ANY WEAK CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT SOME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT STEADY NRLY FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FROST CONCERNS
FOR ONE MORE NIGHT. THE SAME CAN NOT BE SAID FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY AM. THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A CLASSIC FALL-SEASON
SETUP FOR WIDESPREAD FROST - LIGHT WINDS OR WEAK RETURN FLOW,
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, RECENT RAINFALL (DAMP LOW LEVELS),
AND SEASONABLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE. NOT SURPRISED TO SEE
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO TREND COLDER WITH LOWS SAT AM, AND THE
OFFICIAL BLEND NOW TAKES PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO OR BELOW
FREEZING. SUSPECT THIS WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA.
FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET BEYOND THE SAT AM FROST. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM NICELY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO THE 60S AMIDST
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, THEN FURTHER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70S ON
SUNDAY. BOTTOM LINE, THIS WEEKEND LOOKS LIKE A NEARLY PICTURE-
PERFECT FALL WEEKEND. FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER AND CONTINUED
WARMING (PERHAPS BACK INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR SOME?) IS FAVORED
FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS THAT IMPACTED THE TERMINALS EARLY IN
THE EVENING ERODED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
FROM CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL LIKELY SPREAD NORTH
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, AS LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN START TO
THICKEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AFTER DAYBREAK.
EXPECT BOTH TERMINALS TO EVENTUALLY SEE A RETURN TO MVFR
STRATUS AROUND 14/16-14/19Z...AS -SHRAS BEGIN TO DEVELOP/POP UP
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE MID-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE
SHRAS WILL BE MORE HIT AND MISS THAN THE MORE STRATIFORM PRECIP
THAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND
THIS TIME TOMORROW NIGHT. AS A RESULT, COVERED THE SHRA POTENTIAL
WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH A BREAK IN
PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE EVENING HOURS, BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVERTAKES THE AREA AROUND OR AFT 15/05Z.
OVERALL, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW GUSTS 15KT+ POSSIBLE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS LATER TODAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...ROSSI
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page