168
FXUS63 KGID 131137
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SOMEWHAT UP AND DOWN FEW DAYS IN STORE FOR THE AREA IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE REGION.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ON THE "HIGH SIDE" FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
THOUGH SOME PERIODS HAVE BETTER CHANCES THAN OTHERS, INCLUDING
MONDAY NIGHT AND LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- THOUGH RAIN CHANCES DON'T TOTALLY DISAPPEAR, THE TAIL END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS DRIER THAN THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK AT
THIS POINT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
SOME SHOWERS AND AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN LINGERING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS DROPPING SOME MUCH NEEDED
RAIN ROOKS TO MITCHELL COUNTY.THE AREA IS ENGULFED IN THE MID-
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. WE EXPECTED THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS SOME SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BUT THAT SHOULD BE SPARSE AT
BEST IN COVERAGE.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, CLEARING WILL ERODE ITS
WAY NORTH THROUGH NORTH NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND INTO FAR
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 (ROUGHLY)
CLOUDS WILL SHOULD FIRM AND KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN MOSTLY IN THE
60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED ALL AREAS BUT MOST
SIGNIFICANTLY THERE. A TRANSITION ZONE OF SOME SUNSHINE AND
CLOUDS WILL GAVE TO MOSTLY SUNSHINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, AND RESULT IN HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. THERE WILL END UP BEING A FAIRLY SHARP
NORTH/SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WILL BE LARGELY DRY BUT SOME DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.
SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE AND PICK UP TONIGHT AS WARMER
AIR SURGES NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP. AS IT NOSES WAY INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA SOME LATER
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THERE WILL BE MORE FOCUSED
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. CHANCES ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE
BUT NOT NOTHING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME RECENT TRENDS TOWARD
MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS THE DAY, WHICH WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT AND PROBABLY LIMITED STRONGER/STORM POTENTIAL FOR
SOME AREAS.
THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BE SOLID MONDAY WITH GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH
COMMON INTO MID AFTERNOON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE UPPER 80S AND 90S ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT COULD BE ROBUST ENOUGH
FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS GIVEN THE INSTABILITY BUT DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES INITIALLY WEAKEN QUICKLY IN THE THE
EVENING HOURS. THE STRONGER STORM OR TWO PROBABLY FAVOR AREAS
SOUTHEAST OF HASTINGS FOR THE MOST PART BUT THE TIMING OF THE
FRONT IS A BIT UNCERTAIN SO RAIN CHANCES REFLECT A BIT LARGER
AREA WITH HIGH SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL. THOSE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL REDEVELOP INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE NEAR DAWN TUESDAY. TUESDAY MAY HAVE SOME
LINGER RAINFALL IN SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING IT TURNS
DRY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND THE TRENDS FOR TUESDAY
ARE SUGGESTING IT MAY BE DRIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT OR
CURRENTLY FORECAST, AND THAT IS BEING BORNE OUT WITH FORECAST
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S OR EVEN SOME 40S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, MOISTURE RETURNS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS POINT, WEDNESDAY
IS LOOKING PRETTY WET, AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THOUGH
THERE WILL A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATER WEDNESDAY, SOMEWHAT HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY, BUT THOSE START TO TAIL
OFF INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND. THE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL BE COOL
AS WELL WITH TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY
WITH DAYTIME HIGH MOSTLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
DESPITE RELATIVELY COOL AND STABLE AIR AT THE SURFACE, SCATTERED
STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE
STORMS, FUELED BY DECENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY (1000-2000 J/KG
MUCAPE), HAVE RESULTED IN SEVERAL STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
UPDRAFTS (INCLUDING 1.25" HAIL IN HOLDREGE AROUND NOON). NEAR-
TERM MODELING HAS STRUGGLED TO HANDLE THE SUBTLE FORCING
RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE STORMS, BUT THE EXPECTATION IS THAT
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A POTENTIAL UPTICK
AGAIN THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA. MOST
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN NON-SEVERE, BUT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE ELEVATED
NATURE OF THE STORMS, HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, AIDED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, ALTHOUGH
THIS IS UNLIKELY TO BECOME SEVERE GIVEN THE TIMING. THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE
FOR SUNDAY (HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S FOR MOST).
MONDAY IS THE MAIN DAY TO WATCH FOR SEVERE WEATHER. AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT, WE SHOULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL WARMING WITH
MANY AREAS RETURNING TO THE 90S. THIS, OF COURSE, ALSO YIELDS A
VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE LATEST DAY 3 SPC OUTLOOK
HAS UPGRADED PART OF THE AREA TO A "SLIGHT RISK" (LEVEL 2 OF 5),
WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE.
AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH, THE REST OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS
RELATIVELY WET AND COOLER THAN NORMAL. CONTINUED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, COMBINED WITH A STALLED FRONT JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL
RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. DETAILS
REMAIN UNCERTAIN, BUT ML SEVERE GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW. MODELS VARY ON EXACTLY "HOW
WET" NEXT WEEK WILL BE, BUT ALL OF THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLES (EPS,
GEFS, CMCE) ALONG WITH THEIR AI COUNTERPARTS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
LOWER VFR CEILINGS REFLECT A TREND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
AS CEILINGS DIP IN THE MVFR TERRITORY BY MID-MORNING AND HOLD
THERE TODAY AND FLIRT WITH IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT AT BOTH
AIRPORTS. INCLUDED SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS IN THE KGRI AREA AS
RADAR HAS KGRI ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF DEVELOPMENT, BUT THOSE ARE
QUICKLY MOVING EAST. THOSE WON'T LAST LONG AND REMAINDER OF THE
DAY WILL BE DRY. SOME MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED COULD IMPACT
KGRI AFTER MIDNIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL BE NOTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
DISCUSSION...MANGELS
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page