580
FXUS63 KGID 081720
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1220 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY,
RESULTING IN A WIDE RANGE IN HIGHS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THIS
FRONT MAY SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 5-9PM IN THE EXTREME SE CWA.
- OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP NEAR AND
NORTH OF THE STALLED FRONT ON THURSDAY, AND CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT.
- THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY S/SE OF THE TRI- CITIES. THIS IS
ALSO WHERE THE HIGHEST CHANCES (50-80%) FOR WIDESPREAD
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE (>0.50") WILL FOCUS.
- AN ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES, THOUGH SOME
OF THE LATEST TRENDS ARE NOT QUITE AS HOPEFUL FOR SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AS A FEW DAYS AGO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 445 AM CDT WED APR 8 2026
MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM NW TO
SE THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY
ANALYZED FROM THE PANHANDLE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SD AND GENERALLY
REMAINS ON TRACK TO EXPECTATIONS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. TIMING OF
THE FRONT THROUGH THE TRI-CITES LOOKS TO BE RIGHT AROUND MIDDAY.
WINDS WILL TURN THE THE NW/N BEHIND THE FRONT AND USHER IN SOME
COOLER AIR, THOUGH STILL NOT BAD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH
SOME OF THE "COOLNESS" OFFSET BY PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. HIGHS
SHOULD TOP OUT FOR AREAS AROUND THE TRI CITIES AND TO THE N AND
W IN THE 60S. FURTHER SE, HIGHS WILL BE WARMER IN THE 70S TO
EVEN NEAR 80F TOWARDS I-70, AIDED BY A VERY WARM START TO THE
MORNING AMIDST STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS.
FRONT SHOULD CLEAR ALL BUT EXTREME SE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. FRONT MAY REMAIN OVER OR JUST CLOSE
ENOUGH TO AREAS LIKE OSBORNE AND BELOIT UP TOWARDS CONCORDIA AND
HEBRON TO KEEP AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE GOING FOR A COUPLE/FEW
STORMS IN THE 5-9PM TIME FRAME. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL
RISK OF SEVERE FOR THIS POTENTIAL. STRONG WINDS (OWING TO STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
(INVERTED-V PROFILES) AND PERHAPS SOME LOW-END LARGE HAIL
(AIDED BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS LENGTHENING DEEP LAYER
HODOGRAPHS) WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. OVERALL MOISTURE LOOKS TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT LIMITING FACTOR (AFTERNOON DEW POINTS ONLY IN
THE 40S) TO A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. IT'S ALSO POSSIBLE
STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN THE COUNTIES JUST OUTSIDE OUR CWA.
LOW END SHOWER/STORM CHANCES (20-40%) CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AM FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
ON NOSE OF VEERING LOW LEVEL JET AND WITHIN STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION. THIS AREA OF LIFT WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH A STALLED
OUT BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER, ONCE AGAIN, APPEARS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE A
LIMITING FACTOR TO COVERAGE AND OVERALL ORGANIZATION - THUS THE
LIMITED POPS.
DESPITE THE CONTINUOUS POPS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK,
DON'T WANT TO GIVE THE IMPRESSION IT'S A "WASHOUT" BY ANY MEANS.
THINK WE'LL SEE A DECENT DRY BREAK LATE THU AM INTO EARLY AFTN,
AND AGAIN FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. EXPECT
THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY TO COME THU AFTN INTO
OVERNIGHT ALONG THE STILL STALLED OUT BAROCLINIC ZONE AS SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE FINALLY ARRIVES FROM THE S. SPC HAS MAINTAINED
ANOTHER MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS ROUND, AS
WELL, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS BEING ALONG AND S OF THE STATE LINE.
THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST CHANCES (50-80%) FOR THE MOST
APPRECIABLE MOISTURE (0.5" OR MORE OF RAIN) WILL BE THU NIGHT
INTO FRI AM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
CURRENTLY...
IT WAS A DREARY START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL STRATUS. THIS CLOUD COVER HAS DIMINISHED
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY, WITH ONLY FAR NORTHERN
AREAS STILL SITTING UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOOKING
ALOFT...UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, SITTING BETWEEN ONE SHORTWAVE IN THE
NM/TX AREA AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DAY STARTED OUT WITH EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
AREA, WHICH HAVE TURNED MORE SOUTH- SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
DAY...THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST OVER THE
GREAT LAKES, WHILE A TROUGH AXIS REMAINS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER AND GRADUAL NORTHWARD DIMINISHING
TREND MADE FOR A DIFFICULT TEMPERATURE FORECAST...BUT OVERALL
LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL WORK OUT FAIRLY WELL, WITH 40S IN THE FAR
NORTH TO LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.
WEDNESDAY...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST IN THE VERY SHORT-TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THAT ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS SYSTEM
SLIDING GENERALLY EAST ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER TONIGHT ON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW ROUGHLY OVER THE
WESTERN MN/CANADA BORDER BY EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE WITH THE ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH WILL BE PUSHED SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS. REALLY HASN'T BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE
MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...SHOWING THE FRONT ROUGHLY IN THE
TRI-CITIES AREA AROUND 18Z, THE EITHER RIGHT ALONG THE SE CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA OR JUST OUTSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING.
THE DAYTIME PASSAGE MAKES FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE
FORECAST...THE GRADIENT FROM NW-SE COULD END UP TIGHTER THAN THE
LOW 60S-MID 70S CURRENTLY FORECAST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE FOCUS FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...SO ITS LATE-DAY LOCATION IS ANOTHER FORECAST
CONCERN. EVEN IF THE TIMING ENDS UP ON THE SLOWER SIDE, IT LOOKS
TO BE THE FAR SE CORNER WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...A
QUICKER PASSAGE MEANS WE COULD GET MISSED ALTOGETHER. IT LOOKS
LIKE IT'LL BE A CLOSE CALL. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE ON THE STRONG-SEVERE SIDE...SPC DAY 2
MARGINAL RISK AREA CONTINUES TO INCLUDE MOST OF OUR NORTH
CENTRAL KS AREA. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT. THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THAT FRONT LOOKS TO STALL
OUT AS IT LOSES ITS UPPER LEVEL PUSH...BUT IT'S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WE COULD HAVE LINGER ELEVATED PRECIPITATION NORTH OF
THE FRONT WITH MODELS SHOWING AN INCREASED LOW-LEVEL JET. BEST
CHANCES WOULD REMAIN NEAR/SOUTH OF THE NE/KS STATE LINE.
REST OF THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
OVERALL NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST, WITH
MODELS CONTINUING TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH THE MID-LONGER TERM PERIODS. MODELS SHOWING
PERIODIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS...BOTH
IN THE MORE ZONAL FLOW TO END THE WORK WEEK, AND THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND-EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A LARGER TROUGH AXIS MOVE ONTO AND IN FROM THE WEST
COAST. RIGHT NOW THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE IN THE THU-SUN TIME
FRAME...BUT HARD TO HAVE A TON OF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION
OF THESE DISTURBANCE AND CHANCES THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME YOU GO.
ON THURSDAY, MODELS SHOW THE STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY PUSHING
BACK NORTH...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY JUST HOW FAR NORTH IT GETS
BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE/SFC COLD FRONT MOVES IN
FROM THE NW. THIS BOUNDARY WILL AGAIN BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE DAY, AND ON INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS THANKS A STRONGER LLJ. OVERALL BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS AND ANY STRONG-SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO BE
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS...AND THE SPC DAY 3 MARGINAL RISK AREA
CONTINUES TO CLIP SSERN AREAS. HAIL/WIND WOULD AGAIN BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THURSDAY IS ANOTHER LOWER-CONFIDENCE
FORECAST...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING ISO-SCT PRECIP AROUND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...FORECAST HAS RIGHT AROUND 60 IN THE
FAR NE TO MID 70S IN THE SSW. FRIDAY IS CURRENTLY THE OVERALL
COOLEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S-LOW 60S...WITH 70S RETURNING
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED APR 8 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH BOTH TERMINAL SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING BY EVENING. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS, TURNING
MORE EASTERLY AROUND SUNRISE ON THROUGH THE END OF THIS PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST...CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
ISO-SCT PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE PERIOD, HAVE PROB30 MENTION
GOING AT BOTH SITES...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH IN THOSE CHANCES.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
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