290
FXUS63 KGID 291427
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
927 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A FEW REASONS.
FIRST, I INCREASED SKY COVER IN OUR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
STUBBORN STRATUS AT ABOUT 900 FEET AGL.
ALSO, I INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA DUE TO
LATEST HRRR AND HREF RUNS, SUGGESTING COVERAGE OF AT LEAST 40-50
POPS RATHER THAN 20-30. STILL WILL BE LOW SHEAR AND MODERATE
MLCAPE ENVIRONMENT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A STRONG STORM OR TWO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT IS
BISECECTING THE CWA, ROUGHLY FROM WEST NORTHWEST TO EAST
SOUTHEAST, CUTTING THROUGH THE TRI-CITY REGION, AND SHOULD BE
STALLED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ALSO ADDED SMOKE FROM HRRR SMOKE RUN MODEL, ADDING HAZE INTO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. FOLKS COULD
WIND UP SMELLING SOME SMOKE BY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, NORTH OF I-80, WITH VISIBILITY
POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO 3-5 MILES.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA THIS MORNING. OVER THE PAST HOUR...A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT...AND JUST
COMPLETED AND UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAYS 92...THROUGH AROUND 10 AM
CDT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VERY HOT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
TODAY...AS A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE...UPPED TEMPS ABOUT A DEGREE SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TODAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
70S...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 110 THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS THE HEAT BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CAP ERODES...EXPECT JUST
ENOUGH FORCING NEAR THIS FRONT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
JUSTIFY THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS...WITH 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
BOTH POSSIBLE. THAT SAID...SHEAR IS LACKING...AND MOST STORMS
SHOULD BE QUICK TO FIRE AND DISSIPATE...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
BEING MORE LIKELY THAN HAIL.
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST ON
FRIDAY...ANOTHER WARM/HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS COME DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THIS
AFTERNOONS FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH (COMBINED WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS)...TO KEEP MOST/IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA
FROM REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. EVEN SO...A SLIGHT CHANGE
IN THE WARMER DIRECTION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT WOULD
LIKELY JUSTIFY THE EXTENSION OF HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOCAL AREA ANOTHER DAY.
THE GOOD NEWS...HOWEVER...IS A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....WITH
NEARLY A 10C DROP IN TEMPS ANTICIPATED IN ITS WAKE. THIS SHOULD
SPELL A MUCH MORE PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE MESSY IN
MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...RESULTANT FROM AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR WEST...WHICH ALONG WITH MORE
SEASONAL WEATHER SHOULD BRING INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021
MODEST LLWS CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT ON THE VWP...AND CONTINUED
THIS MENTION THROUGH 29/14Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT THE WEAK COLD
FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS
IT APPROACHES THE TERMINALS...WITH A SHIFT TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS IN ITS WAKE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...COULD
SEE A COUPLE OF -TSRAS OR -SHRAS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND
COVERED THIS WITH THE MENTION OF A VCTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ046>049-060>064-
072>077-082>087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ROSSI
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