079
FXUS63 KGID 140545
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS THIS EVENING: ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS
COULD SNEAK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA
(CWA) A BIT EARLIER, OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE
STORMS IS 9PM-1AM...PRIMARILY IN OUR "SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT"...WITH WIND GUSTS UP ~ 65 THE MAIN CONCERN.
- THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK: OUR
FORECAST REMAINS "LITTERED" WITH VARIOUS/INTERMITTENT (AND
MOSTLY LOW CONFIDENCE) RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...WITH THE
OVERALL-HIGHEST CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT LEAST SPOTTY SEVERE ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
AND ESSENTIALLY OUR ENTIRE CWA IS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1 OF 5) FRIDAY-SATURDAY.
- LIMITED HEAT CONCERNS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY KS: A
HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING OUR OUR
KANSAS COUNTIES. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE TO THAT
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR AREA FRIDAY-SATURDAY, BUT HEAT INDEX
COULD STILL REACH 100+ DEGREES IN SOME PLACES (CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO FALL SHORT OF ADVISORY CRITERIA).
- TEMPERATURE OVERVIEW: WHILE HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 90S REMAIN
LIKELY MAINLY IN KS FRIDAY-SATURDAY, THE MAJORITY OF OUR CWA
IS LOOKING AT VERY "TYPICAL" MID-AUGUST TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS MAINLY 80S AND LOWS MAINLY 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 434 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2026
-- FORECAST CHANGES OF NOTE/BIG PICTURE COMMENTS/UNCERTAINTIES:
- NO TRULY MAJOR CHANGES TO SPEAK OF VERSUS PREVIOUS ISSUANCE
LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING. THAT BEING SAID, AS WAS
EXPECTED HERE 24 HOURS AGO...HIGH TEMPS FOR ESPECIALLY SUNDAY-
TUESDAY HAVE TRENDED A BIT WARMER (AND POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH),
AS ANY HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S WOULD APPEAR MOST FAVORED
POSSIBLY SUNDAY AND MAINLY IN OUR NORTH.
- THE MOST PRESSING/OBVIOUS VERY-SHORT-TERM ISSUE IS ASSESSING
SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/ESPECIALLY
EVENING...WITH OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
(MAINLY WITH A DAMAGING WIND THREAT) FOCUSED 9PM-1AM AND
MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF OUR CWA (COUNTIES
MAINLY ALONG/WEST OF HWY 281 AND ALONG/WEST OF HWY 6.
- BIG PICTURE OVERVIEW OF THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THROUGH THE NEXT
WEEK: OUR RELATIVELY CONSISTENT PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK
(FAIRLY CONSISTENT WARM-BUT-NOT-OVERLY HOT TEMPERATURES AND
INTERMITTENT RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES) IS VERY TYPICAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHEN WE RESIDE ALONG THE PERIPHERY/INTERFACE
BETWEEN A LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL HIGH/RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR
SOUTH...AND THE PRIMARY UPPER JET STREAM CENTERED TO OUR
NORTH. REALLY THE ONLY THING THAT CHANGES IS THE SPACIAL
ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE...AS THESE NEXT FEW DAYS WE REMAIN
UNDER MAINLY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT (UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE MID-SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN STATES)...WHICH THEN
TRANSITIONS TO MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ESPECIALLY SUNDAY-
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES BACK WEST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS (TX/OK) AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST (NM/AZ).
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL RUNDOWN (THROUGH THURS. AUG.
20):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE:
BRIEFLY BACKING UP TO LAST NIGHT/EARLY THIS MORNING, FORECASTS
FROM 24 HOURS AGO WERE FAIRLY "SPOT ON" THAT A POTENTIALLY-
SEVERE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WOULD MARCH ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES. HOWEVER, WE DID NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATE A
PARTICULARLY-DAMAGING (THANKFULLY NARROW) SWATH OF AT LEAST
70-80+ MPH WINDS CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM ARCADIA-
NORTH LOUP-GREELEY THAT CAUSED CONSIDERABLE TREE/POWER LINE AND
SOME STRUCTURAL DAMAGE.
IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT'S LONG-DEPARTED STORM COMPLEX
(ACTUALLY STILL ONGOING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA), TODAY HAS THUS
FAR BEEN DRY/UNEVENTFUL, UNDER VARIABLE SKY COVER RANGING FROM
MAINLY MOSTLY CLOUDY NORTH...TO PARTLY CLOUDY CENTRAL...TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SOUTH. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM THAT WE RESIDE UNDER
THE AFOREMENTIONED WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH THE NEXT
LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DISTURBANCE OF INTEREST GRADUALLY
HEADED OUR WAY OUT OF EASTERN CO.
AT THE SURFACE, IT'S ANOTHER DAY WITH A FAIRLY BIG TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA, THANKS TO THAT SAME SHARP, QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED IN WEST-EAST FASHION ACROSS NORTHERN KS.
TO THE NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, MOST OF OUR CWA IS REALIZING
HIGHS BETWEEN THE LOW 80S-LOW 90S, IN THE PRESENCE OF
NORTHEASTERLY/EASTERLY BREEZES GENERALLY 10-15 MPH. HOWEVER,
ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY, TEMPS IN THE MID-
UPPER 90S (AND EVEN LIMITED 100+ EXTREME SOUTH) ARE PRESENT IN
OUR KS COUNTIES. THIS SAME SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA IS ALSO THE
ONLY AREA REALIZING 100+ HEAT INDEX THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD VALUES OF AT LEAST 100-105 AND
POSSIBLY EVEN LOCALIZED UP TO ~ 110 (MAINLY MITCHELL COUNTY).
AS A RESULT, A HEAT ADVISORY CONTINUES IN OUR KS COUNTIES UNTIL
9 PM.
- LATE THIS AFTERNOON-OVERNIGHT:
AS OF THIS WRITING, A FEW "BLIPS" OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ARE
JUST STARTING TO DEVELOP ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTH OF OUR EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CWA (LINCOLN COUNTY KS AREA)...IN AN AREA OF VERY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DEEP MIXING SOUTH OF THE SHARP
SURFACE FRONT. LEANING ON HIGHER-RES MODELS SUCH AS HRRR, AT
SOME POINT MAINLY 5-8 PM COULD AT LEAST BRUSH UP INTO ESPECIALLY
MITCHELL COUNTY IN OUR EXTREME SOUTHEAST...POSSIBLY POSING A
THREAT FOR MAINLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
HOWEVER, OF MUCH HIGHER CONFIDENCE AND CONCERN IS THAT
CONVECTION JUST GETTING UNDERWAY OVER SOUTHWESTERN/SOUTH CENTRAL
KS WILL ACCELERATE NORTHWARD INTO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT OF OUR CWA MAINLY 9PM-1AM, POSING A RISK FOR AT LEAST
LOCALIZED SEVERE GUSTS TO ~ 65 MPH, AND PERHAPS HAIL UP TO
AROUND QUARTER SIZE (HAIL BEING THE LESSER THREAT). ALTHOUGH WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT OF LAST NIGHT'S VERY INTENSE/DAMAGING
WINDS, THESE STORMS WILL HAVE PLENTIFUL INSTABILITY (AT LEAST
2000-3000 J/KG CAPE, BUT A LIMITING FACTOR OF ONLY MODEST DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR MAINLY NO MORE THAN 30-35KT. HOWEVER, HIGHER-RES
MODELS CLEARLY DEPICT AT LEAST LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IF A ROBUST OUTFLOW SURGE IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS ACTIVITY. WHILE THE MAIN
SEVERE STORM THREAT SHOULD LARGELY WANE BY 12-1 AM, OUR ENTIRE
CWA COULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO OUR AREA.
IN OTHER DEPARTMENTS TONIGHT, WHILE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/CONVECTION
SHOULD KEEP LEGITIMATE FOG AT BAY, WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER OUT
OF THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE IN THE NIGHT, AS LOW TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S MOST AREAS, EXCEPT LOW
70S FAR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST.
- FRIDAY DAYTIME:
AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES OVER OUR CWA DURING THE MORNING
(POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A VERY WELL-DEFINED MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE VORTEX/MCV), AT LEAST SPOTTY/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW LINGERING WEAK THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALMOST ANYWHERE INITIALLY POST-SUNRISE, BUT DEPARTING EAST WITH
TIME. IN FACT, MOST ALL OF OUR CWA SHOULD BE DRY DURING THE
AFTERNOON, AS CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES GIVE WAY TO AT LEAST
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
(MAINLY 5-10 MPH) OUT OF SOME VARIATION OF NORTHERLY. AS FOR
HIGH TEMPS, MOST OF OUR CWA SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF THE KS
BORDER (5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY). MORE SPECIFICALLY,
HIGHS RANGING FROM LOW-MID 80S NORTH...TO MID 80S CENTRAL TO
UPPER 80S-LOW 90S NEAR/SOUTH OF THE STATE LINE. WHILE ESPECIALLY
MITCHELL COUNTY KS COULD AGAIN REACH/SLIGHTLY EXCEED 100+ HEAT
INDEX, THESE VALUES SHOULD BE JUST SHORT OF JUSTIFYING ANOTHER
HEAT ADVISORY.
- FRIDAY EVENING-OVERNIGHT:
FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA REMAINS
DRY/STORM-FREE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS BRINGS YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS...PROBABLY MOST FAVORING THE
WESTERN/SOUTHERN HALVES OF OUR CWA. WHILE VERY SPOTTY SEVERE
CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT (IN FACT SPC HAS NEARLY OUR ENTIRE
CWA IN A "BROAD BRUSHED" MARGINAL RISK...THIS SETUP DOES NOT
APPEAR AS CONCERNING AS THE PRECEDING FEW NIGHTS. LOW TEMPS VERY
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT (MID 60S TO LOW 70).
- SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT:
OUR "RINSE AND REPEAT" PATTERN CONTINUES, AS WHILE ESPECIALLY
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY FEATURE LINGERING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS AS
THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE DEPARTS, THE AFTERNOON AND EVEN
EVENING IS PROBABLY DRY/MOSTLY DRY AS WE RESIDE "IN BETWEEN"
DISTURBANCES (OUR RAIN CHANCES/POPS ARE ADMITTEDLY LIKELY TOO
HIGH FOR THE AFTERNOON-EVENING). HOWEVER, VARIOUS MODELS
(INCLUDING THE RRFS) DO DEPICT A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS POST-MIDNIGHT...AGAIN POSSIBLY
FEATURING AT LEAST A SPOTTY SEVERE THREAT (OUR ENTIRE CWA AGAIN
UNDER A BROAD-BRUSHED MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC).
TEMPERATURE-WISE, HIGHS ARE AIMED VERY SIMILAR TO FRIDAY (MAINLY
80S IN NEBRASKA AND LOW-MID 90S IN KS...WITH ONE FINAL DAY OF
100+ HEAT INDEX POTENTIAL MAINLY IN OUR KS COUNTIES. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT MAINLY MID-UPPER 60S. |
- SUNDAY-MONDAY:
ALTHOUGH SPOTTY/INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS REMAIN,
THEY ARE LOWER AND LESS WIDESPREAD THAN THE PRECEDING FEW DAYS,
AS OUR FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE OF
THE SATURDAY NIGHT DISTURBANCE. STILL THINK WE MAY BE AIMING A
LITTLE TOO COOL ON HIGH TEMPS, BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED UP SLIGHTLY
FROM 24 HOURS AGO. NO MATTER WHAT, THEY WILL BE COOLER THAN
SATURDAY, WITH MOST OF THE CWA TOPPING OUT UPPER 70S-MID 80S.
- TUESDAY-THURSDAY:
OBVIOUSLY FAR TOO SOON TO DIVE INTO DETAILS, BUT MOST OF THIS
TIME FRAME LOOKS DRY, DESPITE CONTINUED/INTERMITTENT (AND FAIRLY
LOW...MAINLY 30% OR LOWER) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN MAY NOT BE AIMED QUITE WARM ENOUGH ACCORDING
TO SOME OF THE LATEST "RAW" NUMERICAL GUIDANCE, BUT FOR NOW WE
ARE CALLING FOR MAINLY 80S ALL THREE DAYS, WITH ANY LOWER 90S
MOST FAVORED TUESDAY ESPECIALLY NEAR/SOUTH OF THE KS LINE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE KEAR VICINITY
BETWEEN 6-9Z AND THE KGRI VICINITY BETWEEN 7-10Z. THESE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AS HIGH AS 30KTS WITH
WIND GUTS UP TO 45KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE STRONG WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY BRIEF (~30 MINUTES) BEFORE WINDS RETURN
BACK TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. WINDS SPEEDS THROUGHOUT MOST
OF THE DAY TODAY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION RATES AND ALSO THE LOWEST
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS (AS LOW AS 1-3 MILES) WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY WITHIN THE FIRST HOURS OF WHEN THE STORMS ARRIVE.
OTHERWISE, LIGHTER RAIN MAY TAKE A HOUR TO TWO TO SCATTER
COMPLETELY OUT.
AS FAR AS CEILINGS GO, A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF CLOUDS
AROUND 1,000-1,500FT WILL BE EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS MOST OF
THE NIGHT AND MORNING HOURS (MAINLY THROUGH 18Z). THERE IS SOME
QUESTION TO WEATHER THE STORMS MAY IMPACT CEILINGS? THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY FOR THESE STORMS TO BREAK APART THE LOW-CLOUD
BASES, ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO THE AREA FASTER THAN
WE SUSPECT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...STUMP
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