059
FXUS63 KGID 231137
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
..AVIATION UPDATE
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
TODAY:
SO FAR THIS MORNING LOWS ARE ON TRACK TO BE IN THE 30S FOR
MOST PLACES WITH A FEW 40S IN FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A
LOOK AT SATELLITE AS OF 430 AM SHOWS SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS INCHING THEIR
WAY IN FROM THE EAST MAINLY OVER YORK AND AURORA. EXPECTING
CONDITIONS TO BE MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH INCREASING POPS LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT (AFTER 00Z). TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TODAY THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND
BREEZIER WINDS MAKING IT FEEL COLDER. WENT TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
GUIDANCE FOR TODAY AS THERE WAS A LARGE SPREAD...NEEDED TO BALANCE
THE DIFFERENCE IN INFLUENCE BETWEEN MORE CLOUD COVER BUT ALSO
VEERING WINDS/WAA WITH MORE MIXING TODAY. IF WE DO SEE MORE SUNSHINE
THAN EXPECTED TODAY THEN TEMPS COULD EASILY OVERSHOOT THE FORECAST.
ALOFT THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY, BUT AT THE
SAME TIME THE RIDGE IS BEING DAMPENED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE
TO THE WEST ALONG WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROF TO THE EAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TODAY BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE
UPPER WAVE JUST ON OUR WESTERN DOOR STEP. WITH THIS WAVE A SFC LEE
LOW IS FORMED ALONG THE SOUTHERN CO FRONT RANGE, THIS SFC LOW THEN
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE OK
PANHANDLE REGION ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL KS. FROM THERE THE LOW THEN PIVOTS AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD
UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. POPS FIRST SHOW UP IN THE EVENING
HOURS AN THEN RAMP UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY.
REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT:
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT RISK CLIPPING PORTIONS OF MITCHELL, JEWELL, THAYER,
AND FILLMORE COUNTIES. LATER THIS EVENING A LLJ SETS UP OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE EDGE OF THIS
JET LOOKS TO CLIP OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM THE LLJ ALONG WITH STRONG WAA MEANS WE COULD SEE MOISTENING
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. WITHIN THIS REGION
MUCAPE LOOKS TO BE MODEST AT AROUND 500-1,500 J/KG WITH PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MEANS A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO AROUND THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INITIALLY BEFORE THE BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHIFT EAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LLJ.
SUNDAY:
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH POPS SHIFTING MORE NORTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AND TAPERING OFF BY THE EVENING. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THOUGH
WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS
CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY
MOVES EAST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MO. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WITH CAMS LARGELY ON THE
DRIER SIDE. IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOST PLACES LOOK TO RECEIVE
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH WITH A FEW PLACES SEEING AROUND HALF AN
INCH, BUT THIS IS LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE 60S FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
HALF. OVERALL, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER CLOUDY, DREARY, AND DAMP
DAY.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
RIDGING ALOFT TAKES OVER AGAIN ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER TROF IS
POSITIONED OVER SOCAL ON MONDAY EVENING AND WORKING ITS WAY EAST.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH COOLER FALL LIKE HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE THEN DEEPENS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
EITHER BECOMES A CLOSED LOW BY WEDNESDAY 00Z (ECMWF) OR STAYS AS AN
OPEN WAVE (GFS) AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH
POPS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS CURRENTLY ALSO DIFFER
IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT ARE BRINING ROUGHLY EQUAL PRECIP
CHANCES REGARDLESS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE THREAT
TUESDAY AND SPC HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A 15% FOR THE
DAY 4 OUTLOOK. THERE IS STILL A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE DUE TO
THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES, BUT THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME DECENT
INSTABILITY UP THROUGH CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE
COMING DAYS AND COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN FUTURE FORECASTS. THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE RATHER FALL LIKE WITH HIGHS
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR AND THEN IFR
CIGS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD
COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE
EAST. THEN THIS EVENING PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP UP STARTING
OFF WITH THUNDERSTORMS THEN BECOMING SHOWERS BY DAY TIME TOMORROW.
THE INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE STEADY
DECREASE IN CIGS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...SHAWKEY
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