931
FXUS63 KGID 281828
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1228 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
..AVIATION AND SHORT TERM UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- A MILD FINISH TO FEBRUARY TODAY ACROSS THE AREA (MAINLY
50S/60S) WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO START THE MONTH OF
MARCH (30S).
- A LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY (20-50%), WITH
OVERALL BEST CHANCES BEING WELL S/SE/E OF THE TRI-CITIES.
IMPACT POTENTIAL STILL REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN...BUT MODELS
AGREE THAT WHATEVER DOES FALL WILL BE LIGHT.
- SEASONABLY COOL TO START THE WEEK (40S TO NEAR 50) WITH MORE
MILD TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK (50S/60S).
- A SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK, BUT WOULDN'T GET HOPES UP FOR APPRECIABLE MOISTURE JUST
YET. FORECAST PROBABLY SOUNDS MORE "ACTIVE" THAN WHAT IT WILL
BE IN REALITY. COULD EVEN SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
- - REGARDING HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON:
- ALTHOUGH STILL SEASONABLY-MILD FOR SURE, LATEST
MODELS/GUIDANCE (ALONG WITH OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS) ARE
INCREASINGLY SUGGESTIVE THAT WE LIKELY "OVERDID" HIGH TEMPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN EARLIER FORECASTS (ESPECIALLY IN OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES).
- AS A RESULT, HAVE ALREADY LOWERED AFTERNOON HIGHS AT LEAST 3-6
DEGREES FROM OUR INITIAL FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING (AND
POSSIBLY NOT ENOUGH). MORE SPECIFICALLY, OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST
NOW CALLS FOR GENERALLY UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S FAR NORTH...MID-
UPPER 50S CENTRAL (INCLUDING TRI CITIES) AND MAINLY LOW-MID
60S IN OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST (EXCEPT UPPER 60S STILL POSSIBLE
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MAINLY ROOKS COUNTY KS). AGAIN, EVEN THESE
ADJUSTED VALUES MAY STILL BE AIMED A BIT TOO WARM BASED ON
LATEST TRENDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 311 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE STREAMING ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. WITH LIGHTER (AND MORE NORTHERLY)
WINDS, TEMPERATURES TO START THE DAY ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES
BELOWS YESTERDAYS VERY MILD READINGS.
EXPECT ONE FINAL VERY MILD DAY ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
PREVAIL. COULD SEE A COUPLE HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WEST OF HIGHWAY 183 THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS WILL BE
A BIT BREEZIER AND RH VALUES WILL BE BELOW 20 PERCENT, BUT FELT
THE RISK WAS LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INTRODUCE TO THE HWO THIS
MORNING (ALBEIT IT WAS MENTIONED IN THE FWF).
CHANGES CONTINUE TO BE IN STORE FOR THE LOCAL AREA ON SUNDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST, BUT
PRECIPITATION AND PRECIPITATION TYPE SILL REMAINS IN QUESTION.
LATEST NAM IS ALMOST COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY
WITH MOISTURE NOT CREEPING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL MONDAY.
THIS WOULD REALLY LIMIT WINTRY MIX TYPE IMPACTS ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WITH THE FOCUS BEING MAINLY OUTSIDE THE LOCAL AREA TO
THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. 06Z RUN OF HRRR ALSO INDICATES VERY
LIMITED PRECIP LOCALLY ON SUNDAY, SO DESPITE THE 20-50% POPS IN
THE FORECAST, EXPECTATIONS FOR MUCH PRECIPITATION LOCALLY (MORE
THAN A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH) IS LOW.
THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY "ACTIVE" WITH NEARLY
EVERY PERIOD OF THE FORECAST HAVING AT LEAST SMALL POPS ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA, BUT AGAIN, EXPECTATIONS FOR MUCH SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW. MAIN TIMEFRAME FOR BETTER CHANCES OF
PRECIP APPEAR TO BE TUESDAY PM AND THURSDAY PM (WHEN A BIT OF
INSTABILITY CREEPS INTO THE LOCAL AREA), BUT MODELS VARY QUITE A
BIT AND CONFIDENCE IN BOTH TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE ON THE LOWER
END.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 207 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
AS ANTICIPATED, TODAY HAS TURNED OUT TO BE A NEARLY PERFECT DAY
FOR LATE FEBRUARY...THAT IS, IF YOU DON'T LIKE WINTER.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S-LOW 70S, DECREASING WINDS, AND PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, SO GET OUT AND
ENJOY IT IF YOU CAN.
A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW MORNING...WITHOUT ANY PRECIP AND PROBABLY NOT EVEN MUCH
CLOUD COVER. THERE'S REALLY NOT MUCH OF A SURGE TO THE COLDER
AIR UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY...SO WITH CONTINUED SUNSHINE OVER
DRY/BARE GROUND...COULD STILL WARM FAIRLY NICELY INTO THE UPPER
50S TO 60S. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A COUPLE DEG WARMER AS SUCH.
THE BIGGER DIFFERENCE, THOUGH, WILL BE A STIFFER NRLY BREEZY
AROUND 10-15 MPH. STILL NOT A BAD WAY TO ROUND OUT FEBRUARY.
MARCH WILL TRY TO COME IN LIKE A LION...BUT REALLY IT MAY BE
MORE LIKE A LION CUB WITH NOT MUCH FEROCITY OR INTENSITY. OUR
NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE WILL COME ON SUNDAY, AND BY THEN, SOME
COLDER AIR WILL HAVE DEEPENED ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO THE N/NE. A WEAK AND QUICK-
MOVING, PACIFIC-BASED SHORTWAVE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION FROM W
TO E ON SUNDAY, AND MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN GENERATING A
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT QPF WITHIN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OF
THE SYSTEM. THE WAVE WILL CARRY SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
IT FROM THE PACIFIC, BUT DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
TOUGHER TO COME BY UNTIL THE VERY "LAST MINUTE", MEANING WESTERN
COUNTIES MAY SEE VERY LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE - WITH BETTER
CHANCES E OF HWY 281. EVEN STILL, LOOKS LIKE BRUNT OF QPF WILL
FOCUS CLOSER TO THE MO RIVER VALLEY WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE
TIME FOR MOISTURE RETURN.
IT'S TOUGH TO PIN DOWN SPECIFIC IMPACTS (IF ANY?), AS THAT
REQUIRES A FIRMER GRASP OF WHAT THE DOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WILL
BE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE QUITE COMPLEX AND SUGGEST A MIX OF
SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN/RAIN ARE ALL POSSIBLE. OF THESE
OPTIONS, FEEL FREEZING RAIN IS THE LEAST LIKELY TO OCCUR, AND IF
IT DOES OCCUR, IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL GIVEN BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY AS MOST PRECIP SHOULD FALL DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WHEN PAVEMENT TEMPS ARE WARMER. ALSO, WE DON'T HAVE ANY SNOW TO
HELP "LOCK IN" THAT NEAR-SFC COLD LAYER. THAT LEAVES SNOW,
SLEET, OR JUST COLD RAIN AS THE OTHER OPTIONS. SLEET CAN BE AN
ISSUE, EVEN IN SMALL AMOUNTS, AS IT'S HARDER TO MELT ON CONTACT,
BUT I'M NOT CONVINCED WE'LL SEE ENOUGH OF IT WITH A FASTER
SYSTEM PROGRESSION, AND AGAIN, MARGINAL SFC TEMPS. SO...BOTTOM
LINE...DON'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ON SUNDAY.
MAY HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR A FEW SLICK SPOTS, ESP. SE OF THE TRI-
CITIES, BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE MORE THAN A NUISANCE.
A LARGER, AND SOMEWHAT MORE PROMINENT, SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE W LATE MON INTO TUE...AND POSSIBLY LINGER IN
SOME FORM OR FASHION INTO WEDNESDAY. WITH THAT SAID, GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE WAVE WILL BE DEAMPLIFYING/WEAKENING WITH
TIME, AND REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED AS IT SLIDES THROUGH.
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF THIS PROCESS ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO PIN DOWN THIS
FAR OUT...BUT THE GENERAL SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE IS THAT THIS
TOO WOULD FAVOR A LIGHTER END EVENT QPF WISE, AND NOT ONE THAT
BLANKETS THE AREA IN APPRECIABLE MOISTURE. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALLS FOR "LIKELY" POPS IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD SOMEWHERE IN OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM MON NIGHT ALL THE WAY INTO WED NIGHT, BUT
THIS IS LIKELY MORE OF A FUNCTION OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN
INDIVIDUAL VORT LOBES SWING THROUGH. I DON'T THINK IT'S GOING TO
BE AS ACTIVE AS THE CURRENT FORECAST IMPLIES. PRECIP TYPE
REMAINS UP IN THE AIR, BUT AGAIN, WITH THE OVERALL LIGHT/SPOTTY
NATURE TO THE QPF IT MAY NOT MATTER ANYWAY. AT THE VERY LEAST,
THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER COMPARED TO RECENT.
ENSEMBLES FINALLY CLEAR OUT/WEAKEN THE TROUGH ALTOGETHER BY LATE
NEXT WEEK, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A 1-2 DAY WARMUP BACK
INTO THE 60S - PROBABLY FOR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD IS A VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
FORECAST (SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON GIVING WAY TO INCREASING
HIGH CIRRUS TONIGHT), ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, LATE
IN THE PERIOD SUNDAY MORNING (MAINLY AFTER 12), THERE ARE AT
LEAST SOME SLIGHT UNCERTAINTIES, AS SOME MODELS/GUIDANCE GIVE
SLIGHT SUGGESTIONS THAT AN MVFR CEILING COULD TRY TO DEVELOP.
GIVEN THAT NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) PROBABILITIES FOR
MVFR CEILING LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE CURRENTLY NO HIGHER THAN
20-30 PERCENT...WILL ONLY "HINT" AT THIS POSSIBILITY WITH "FEW"
LOW CLOUD GROUPS.
AS FOR WINDS, THEY SHOULD NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS COMMONLY 8-11KT/GUSTS 10-15KT. DIRECTION WILL
VARY SOMEWHAT...SHIFTING FROM MORE NORTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING, TO MORE EASTERLY LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH/ROSSI
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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