087
FXUS63 KGID 161144
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
644 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
THE PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUT OUT AN AN OUTFLOW
THAT HAS COVERED MOST OF THE AREA, BUT ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80. WHILE I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
OTHER THAN KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS, I
AM CONCERNED ABOUT HOW THIS AIRMASS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SOMETHING TO WATCH.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS ROLLING ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION IS STAYING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE MAJORITY OF THE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF I-80 UNTIL IT EXITS INTO
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE
REMAINING STORMS WILL BE STRONG, BUT OVERALL, THEY ARE WEAKENING
AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.
TODAY IS NOT CLEAR CUT...I THINK OVERALL IT WILL REMAIN DRY AFTER
THIS MORNING ACTIVITY EXITS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF
MODELS NAMELY THE NAMNEST AND THE RAP CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME JUNKY
STUFF AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE
AFTER 12Z. IF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON IT WILL OBVIOUSLY IMPACT SKY COVER AND POTENTIALLY HIGH
TEMPS. DIDN'T GET CRAZY WITH TEMPS...STAYED FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS. OVERALL NEAR 90 INTO THE LOW 90S IN MUCH OF
NEBRASKA AND IN THE MID 90S IN NC KANSAS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE
NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 100.
TONIGHT. AGAIN NOT CLEAR CUT ON WHAT WILL DEVELOP AND HOW IT WILL
EVOLVE. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND
TRACK EAST, BUT VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR IT WILL MAKE IT.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE S. DAKOTA/NEBRASKA STATE
WHICH WILL BE A MUCH MORE LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTION DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE THOUGH. A MARGINAL RISK
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF GIDS NEBRASKA COUNTIES. THINK THAT HAIL TO
QUARTERS AND WINDS TO 60 ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 456 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
HEAT:
WHILE IT HAS BEEN HOT THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
COMBO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE CONDITIONS MORE MISERABLE. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S FROM THE NE/KS BORDER
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BE IN THE LOW 70S NEAR THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SAG
SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST AND HAVE
THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH MOST AREAS BETWEEN 100-107
DEGREES. CAVEAT FOR WEDNESDAY IS CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT. THIS COULD IMPACT HIGHS AND THUS OVERALL
HEAT VALUES. SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK SIMILAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
90S AND LOW 100S IN KANSAS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S.
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WED-FRI. DID NOT
HAVE CONFIDENCE TO CONVERT TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
THUNDERSTORMS:
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND PUSHING A FRONT INTO THE REGION BEFORE IT
STALLS OUT. A NUMBER OF THE MODELS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND FEEL THE DAY 2 MARGINAL
MATCHES UP WELL. UNSURE OF HOW FAR EAST THIS CONVECTION WILL GO AS
THE UPPER FORCING LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. LOTS OF
TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE.
COOL DOWN:
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THE EC AND GFS DIFFER ON THE
STRENGTH OF AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT
WILL BRING A BREAK TO THE HEAT. THEY BOTH BRING A FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH
BOLDER WITH THE COOL DOWN VS. THE EC. SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL
RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN
KANSAS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN AND VARIOUS SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. SO IN THE
END...WHILE THE TIMING OF THE BREAK IN HEAT IS NOT DEFINITIVE, IT
DOES LOOK TO BE COMING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND TO THE BEGINNING
OF THE NEXT WORK-WEEK.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS IMPACTED THE WIND FIELD FOR THE DAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY
AND SOUTH BY AFTERNOON, BUT THE ORIGINAL BREEZY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT THE 06Z TAF ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING KGRI THIS MORNING, BUT IT IS GOING TO
BE OFF AND ON, SO HAVE LEFT VCTS AT THIS TIME. KEAR SKIRTED BY
WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT, BUT HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY THE
OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION, SO SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR
THE WIND FIELD THERE.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ON HOW IT WILL EVOLVE AND HAVE NOT PUT THIS IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. DID, HOWEVER, INCLUDE LLWS FOR BOTH TERMINALS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.
UPDATE...BILLINGS WRIGHT
SHORT TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
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