325
FXUS63 KGID 211125
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
525 AM CST MON JAN 21 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON JAN 21 2019
FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL
IMPACT THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY, WE HAVE WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY, AND, AS A RESULT, MOST OF
THE AREA WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BY LATE AFTERNOON, MODELS START TO DEVELOP AREAS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE IN THE LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
TROUGH. COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY AT FIRST, BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY
INCREASE INTO THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THE DENDRITIC LAYER
WILL REMAIN UNSATURATED UNTIL LATE TONIGHT (WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR MOST OF THE AREA). THIS WILL GIVE 9-12 HOURS FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO ACCUMULATE AND MAKE ROADS SLICK FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 0.1" ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY STARTS AT 3PM THIS AFTERNOON AND RUNS
THROUGH 6PM TUESDAY. ROOKS, OSBORNE, AND MITCHELL COUNTIES WERE
LEFT OUT OF THE ADVISORY FOR NOW BECAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DRIZZLE
EVENT. IF TODAY ENDS UP BEING COLDER, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THESE
COUNTIES WILL NEED TO BE ADDED.
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN KS. AS
COLDER AND MORE SATURATED AIR MOVES IN ALOFT, FREEZING DRIZZLE
WILL CHANGE TO SNOW FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY, GUSTING TO 40-45 MPH AT TIMES. THIS WILL REDUCE
VISIBILITY AND LEAD TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY 1-3" ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA, AND LESS THAN AN INCH
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. THE NAM SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT OF
FRONTOGENESIS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER, SO I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE A MESOSCALE BAND OR TWO THAT ENDS UP WITH HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS THAN FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY, ITS NEAR IMPOSSIBLE TO
FORECAST THE LOCATIONS OF THESE BANDS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON JAN 21 2019
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY, AND CLEARING SKIES SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL
BLAST THROUGH THE AREA, BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SNOW AND
STRONG NORTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THE DAY, AND BY
THE AFTERNOON, WIND CHILL VALUES ARE FORECAST TO DIP TO THE -10
TO -20 DEGREE RANGE FROM THE TRI-CITIES NORTHEASTWARD.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD ONE, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND EVEN BELOW ZERO FOR SOME LOCATIONS. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES WILL BRING AT SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW TO THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT THESE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THESE
WAVES WILL LIMIT THEIR IMPACT TO SOME DEGREE. THE COLDEST AIR WILL
SHIFT EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S,
AND LOWS SHOULD FALL INTO THE TEENS TO LOW 20S EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST MON JAN 21 2019
THE CEILING FORECAST FOR TODAY IS A BIT TRICKY. CURRENTLY, THERE
IS A AREA OF CLEARING IN THE STRATUS THAT HAS MOVED INTO GRI AND
IS VERY NEAR BOTH EAR. MODELS DON'T HAVE A GOOD GRASP ON THIS
FEATURE, BUT I DON'T SEE ANY REASON WHY IT COULDN'T HANG AROUND
FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
LATER THIS MORNING, CEILINGS RETURN TO MVFR, BUT WILL DROP BACK TO
IFR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AREAS OF LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP. EXPECT PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE TO
CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO SNOW EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 09Z
AND 12Z TOMORROW, WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 35 KTS BEHIND IT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST
TUESDAY FOR KSZ005>007.
SHORT TERM...MANGELS
LONG TERM...MANGELS
AVIATION...MANGELS
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