774
FXUS63 KGID 051159
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
659 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING, MAINLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
- SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING AND THE OVERALL COVERAGE. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE LATEST SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
- ANOTHER CONCERN COMES TONIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAIN FROM TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. SIMILAR TO THE
DAYTIME, UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT CONTINUE INTO
THE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE NE-E OF
THE TRI-CITIES.
- PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
SHOULD TREND GENERALLY DRIER AND WARMER FOR THE SECOND HALF.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING IS FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE MOST PERSISTENT DENSE FOG
APPEARS TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN ABOUT THE NE/KS STATE LINE AND
HWY 92 IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WHERE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. THIS IS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR
HAVE BEEN SHOWING FOR THE MOST FAVORED AREAS OF FOG. WITH THAT
SAID, THERE IS STILL SOME NUANCE TO THE ISSUE THANKS
COMPLICATIONS FROM THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW TRYING TO MOVE IN FROM
THE W AND N/NE. FOG MAY BE TRANSITIONING TO MORE OF A LOW
STRATUS DECK - ESP. FROM AROUND GRAND ISLAND E TO YORK, WHICH
APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO OUTFLOW FROM N NEB STORMS EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT. WEBCAMS STILL SHOW SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG, MAINLY
IN HALL CO...BUT IF TRENDS CONTINUE, MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR A FEW
COUNTIES EARLY. ELSEWHERE, WEAK E/SE UPSLOPE FLOW AND VERY LOW
T-TD DEPRESSIONS SHOULD KEEP FOG IN PLACE THROUGH AROUND 8-9AM.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY OR MAY NOT DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ALONG A WEAK TROUGH/CONVERGENT
ZONE. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAS INCLUDED CONDITIONAL INTENSITY
GROUP LEVEL 1 (CIG1) AREAS FOR WIND AND HAIL, AS WELL. THIS
SUGGESTS THAT REASONABLE PEAK WINDS OF 74+ MPH AND HAIL > 2" IN
DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER, WITH
THAT SAID, WANT TO STATE UPFRONT THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
TO DEVELOP AT ALL REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN, THANKS IN LARGE PART
TO RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WHICH TENDS TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION
IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG/FOCUSED LOW LEVEL LIFT. AND IT'S JUST
NOT QUITE CLEAR IF THE RELATIVELY WEAK TROUGH WILL BE THAT
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. IF STORMS DO FORM,
THERE WILL IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY (MLCAPE 3-4K J/KG) AND MODEST,
BUT SUFFICIENT, DEEP LAYER SHEAR (30-35KT) FOR SOME ORGANIZED
CLUSTERS AND/OR SUPERCELLS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAIRLY
STEEP AT AROUND 7.5 C/KM. IT APPEARS THE TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED
ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE FROM PHILLIPSBURG TO YORK BY PEAK HEATING,
WITH ANY STORM MOTIONS EXPECTED TO BE E OR SE.
WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED IF THERE ARE ACTUALLY TWO FAVORED AREAS
FOR DEVELOPMENT...ONE NEAR A THERMAL LOW ON THE NOSE OF HOT,
DEEPLY MIXED AIR NEAR OR JUST SW OF HILL CITY...AND ANOTHER AREA
ALONG AND E OF HWY 81 IN AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY LOWER MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND WEAKER CAPPING. IF THIS INDEED IS THE CASE, WE MAY
LARGELY MISS OUT ON SEVERE CONVECTION ALTOGETHER. THIS IS JUST
ONE POTENTIAL OUTCOME, THOUGH, AND SPREAD EVEN AMONGST THE CAMS
IS PRETTY HIGH. THUS, THE BEST WAY TO PUT IT IS LOW CONFIDENCE
(AND POTENTIALLY LOW COVERAGE), BUT CONDITIONALLY MODERATE
INTENSITY/IMPACT IF A STORM IS ABLE TO FORM AROUND PEAK HEATING.
THE LAST CONCERN WORTH DISCUSSING IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT MORE WIDESPREAD, BUT ELEVATED, CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET LATE THIS EVENING
AND PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT. THIS IS A SCENARIO THAT HAS A BIT
MORE MODEL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE CAMS, AND EVEN SOME OF THE
COARSER GUIDANCE, BUT BY NO MEANS QUALIFIES AS HIGH CONFIDENCE,
EITHER. THIS ROUND WOULD BE MOSTLY AFTER 03Z AND REPRESENT MORE
OF A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT THAN A SEVERE THREAT. THE MODELS
THAT DO HAVE THIS ROUND KEEP IT MAINLY NE-E OF THE TRI-CITIES,
AND AGAIN COULD FAVOR MORE OF E NEBRASKA THAN CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEND TO THINK THIS OVERNIGHT ROUND IS MORE PLAUSIBLE THANKS TO
THE STRONGER FORCING FROM THE CONVERGENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET,
AS WELL AS LIFT FROM RELATIVELY BROAD AND DEEP WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 850-700MB LAYER AS VIEWED ON AREA SOUNDINGS.
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
TO WORK WITH AS EVIDENT BY PWATS OF 1.50-1.75" (MORE OF MID TO
LATE SUMMER TYPE LEVELS). WHAT'S ALSO CONCERNING IS THE WEAK MID
TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND GENERALLY SLOW MOVEMENT. FURTHERMORE,
THE MEAN WIND VECTOR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PARALLEL TO THE LLJ CONVERGENCE AXIS - WHICH COULD ULTIMATELY
SUPPORT SOME TRAINING THUNDERSTORM CELLS. OVERALL, THIS SCENARIO
COULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED IN SE NEBRASKA INTO NW
MISSOURI LAST NIGHT. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE COVERAGE OR
PLACEMENT AT THIS TIME FOR A FLOOD WATCH, BUT DAY SHIFT MAY NEED
TO CONSIDER ONE IF MODEL AGREEMENT/CONSISTENCY INCREASES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT THU JUN 4 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO IMPACT ROUGHLY
THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA HERE DURING THE
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON HOURS...DRIVEN BY A MCV WORKING ITS WAY
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL KS. THIS COMPLEX WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING INTO AN AREA
WHAT HAS BEEN UNDER CLOUD COVER MOST OF THE DAY, WITH TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOW 70S, BUT DEWPOINTS AREN'T FAR OFF. NOT
SURPRISINGLY, LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AREN'T GREAT, WHICH IS
HELPING KEEP STORMS FROM GROWING MUCH...EVEN WITH MLCAPE OF
AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO NOT
GREAT...BUT LOWER LEVEL SHEAR IS BETTER, WITH THE SPC MESO PAGE
SHOW 0-1KM VALUES AROUND 15-20KTS. BEING THIS CLOSER TO THE
BETTER MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH LOW LCL VALUES,
CERTAINLY CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO AS THIS
ACTIVITY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HI- RES MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT TODAY SHOWING
THE BRUNT OF THIS ACTIVITY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z,
PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY HANGING ON ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
AFTER THAT...THEN KEEP THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY.
A WEAK SURFACE PATTERN LINGERING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
KEEPS WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE...MORE EASTERLY ACROSS OUR
NEBRASKA COUNTIES, MORE SOUTHERN ACROSS OUR KANSAS COUNTIES.
MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT WAS TO ADD THE
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG THANKS TO THE RECENT RAINS COMBINED WITH
THE OVERALL LIGHTER WINDS...WITH MODELS FOCUSING THE BEST
CHANCES MAINLY ACROSS OUR NEB. COUNTIES.
FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK...WITH A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAYTIME HOURS POTENTIALLY DRY. IF FOG DOES
DEVELOP TONIGHT, THAT COULD LINGER INTO THE MID-MORNING
HOURS...BUT SHOULDN'T STICK AROUND MUCH BEYOND THAT. EXPECTING
TO SEE GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...WITH A GOOD JUMP IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES, REACHING WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. MAIN
FOCUS AS WE GET INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF A SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON, MODELS AREN'T IN TOO BAD OF AGREEMENT WITH ITS
GENERAL LOCATION...RUNNING SW TO NE ROUGHLY ALONG A HARLAN
COUNTY TO MERRICK COUNTY LINE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. UPPER
LEVEL FORCING IS LACKING...BUT MODELS SHOW STRONG INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70 NOSING INTO AT LEAST EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME SHOWING MLCAPE VALUES
POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG SOUTH OF THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO ON THE LOWER SIDE, MODELS GENERALLY
SHOWING AROUND 25-30KTS. IF ANYTHING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS,
MODELS HAVE TRENDED BACK ON ACTIVITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...HOLDING ACTIVITY OFF INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH LIFT
AIDED BY AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET. EVEN THEN, AND ON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, MODELS AT LEAST AT THIS POINT SHOW PRETTY
LIMITED COVERAGE.
THIS WEEKEND AND ON...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND ON
INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUING.
LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE, THERE CONTINUE TO BE DETAILS THAT
NEED IRONING OUT BETWEEN MODELS. ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGHING LOOKS TO WORK ITS WAY ONTO THE WEST COAST THIS
WEEKEND...HELPING DRAW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTHWARD OUT OF
THE SRN PLAINS. THE BETTER CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK TO
FOCUS MORE ON SUNDAY...BUT THERE ARE SOME BROAD DIFFERENCES WITH
MODEL QPF OVER THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME SHOWING THE BRUNT
OF FORCING AND PRECIP POTENTIALLY SLIDING JUST OFF TO OUR EAST.
THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK...MAIN QUESTION LIES WITH HOW
AMPLIFIED THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES, AND ARE WE MORE
INFLUENCED BY RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD NORTH OUT OF THE SRN
PLAINS OR THAT WESTERN CONUS LARGER SCALE TROUGHING. CONFIDENCE
IN PRECIP CHANCES LOWERS THE FURTHER OUT YOU GO IN THE FORECAST.
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 80S-90S...POTENTIALLY CLIMBING UP NEAR
THE 100 DEG MARK BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
TRICKY TAF FORECAST THIS MORNING DUE TO WIDE RANGE IN CONDITIONS
OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INSTANCE, APPEARS GRI WILL REMAIN
MAINLY VFR NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THANKS TO A POCKET OF CLEARING
IN THE STRATUS/FOG. HOWEVER, EAR REMAINS SOCKED IN LIFR VSBYS
AND CIGS...THOUGH THE CLEARING IS ALSO TRYING TO MAKE SOME
ADVANCEMENT THAT WAY, AS WELL. WENT ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE OF
THINGS FOR EAR, KEEPING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN THROUGH 14Z,
THEN SOME STEADY IMPROVEMENT. THIS COULD BE A BIT SLOW. GIVEN
THE TIME OF YEAR AND LATEST TRENDS, DON'T THINK THE IMPROVEMENT
WILL BE ANY LATER THAN 14-15Z. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF THE REMNANT
FOG THAT LIKELY LIFTS INTO A STRATUS DECK LIFTS N AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS TO GRI, BUT THAT'S NOT IN THERE
RIGHT NOW.
OTHERWISE, REST OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE VFR WITH STEADY SERLY
WINDS.
FOR TONIGHT, HAVE SOME PROB30S BEGINNING AROUND SUNSET AS SOME
CAM GUIDANCE DEVELOPS SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE AREA. I
DIDN'T INCLUDE ANY CHANCES EARLIER THAN THAT AS I THINK ANYTHING
SURFACE BASED FAVORS AREAS A BIT FURTHER E/SE. THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION IS ALSO ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, AT BEST, THUS THE
PROB30 GROUP AND NOT PREVAILING. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE REFINEMENTS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ046-060-
061-072>077-082>087.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...THIES
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