568
FXUS63 KGID 211110
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
610 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
..AVIATION UPDATE
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, AND WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND LOW-LEVELS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE WINDS, I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA APPROACH 80 DEGREES.
REGARDING WINDS, RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AROUND
875-850MB AND WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OF 20-30KTS.
THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST 850MB WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES THE AREA. AS SUCH, THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL THINGS
CONSIDERED, I EXPECT GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH AT TIMES.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK PERTURBATION IS EVIDENT AT 500MB.
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA, SWITCHING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH, AND ALLOWING LOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE LOW 30S FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON MONDAY, BUT IT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES
COOLER THAN TODAY AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY, BUT
WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START OUT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING CENTRAL
NEBRASKA/KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THANKS TO THE RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY PROBABLY WON'T GET HIGHER
THAN THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WON'T BE HEAVY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GULF
CONNECTION IS POOR AND THERE IS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH. NEVERTHELESS, THIS IS A RATHER SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM SO SOME
LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP 0.25-0.50" OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
THE AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT ON THURSDAY, BUT WE WILL REMAIN
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SO WE WILL AT LEAST
KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE AREA. TIMING OF ANY
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT, BUT
ITS CERTAINLY NOT A "GUARANTEED" DRY PERIOD LIKE THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS HAVE BEEN.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
LLWS WILL END BY 15Z THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS
INCREASE...LIKELY GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS AT TIMES THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY AROUND 0Z, AND WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY AFTER 06Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...MANGELS
LONG TERM...MANGELS
AVIATION...MANGELS
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