339
FXUS63 KGID 110714
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
214 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO 90S TODAY.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW,
PARTICULARLY FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS, WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH POSSIBLE.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA
MID-WEEK.
- THOUGH THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MONDAY NIGHT, MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
STRONG SURFACE WINDS (THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS YESTERDAY) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY TODAY, IN RESPONSE TO AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED IN SOUTH DAKOTA, SUPPORTED ALOFT
BY POCKETS OF VORTICITY CROSSING THE ROCKIES AMIDST THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THESE STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 60S THIS MORNING
(COMPARED TO CLIMATOLOGY AROUND 45 DEGREES). FORECAST HIGHS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE-NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON (VALUES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S), THOUGH INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS
AFTERNOON MAY POSE SOME DIFFICULTY IN REALIZING THESE VALUES.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 15-20 MPH, WITH
STRONGEST WINDS FAVORING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. LIKEWISE, WINDS
WILL GUST TO AROUND 20-30 MPH, THOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA TOMORROW, AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE AT LEAST 1 MORE DAY.
STRONG, BREEZY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30MPH IN NORTH CENTRAL KS. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.
BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH
THURSDAY, AS THE MAIN UPPER-LEVEL LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. EXACT
PRECIPITATION TIMING AND AMOUNTS DO REMAIN UNCERTAIN, MAINLY DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF LOW EJECTION.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THIS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS THE
AREA, WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN KANSAS AND SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS
EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR THEIR MAX, BUT
RECORDS AT GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS ARE GOING TO BE CLOSE. THE
CURRENT RECORD FOR THE MAX TEMPERATURE TODAY IS 90 DEGREES AT
BOTH LOCATIONS. AS OF 2PM - GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS HAVE HIT
88 AND 86 RESPECTIVELY.
THROUGH MONDAY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE EXPECTED.
NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES FOR MID OCTOBER ARE IN THE UPPER 60S.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY AND THAT BRINGS A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT REACH OF THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS, BUT OVERALL OUTCOME IS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. LATER MONDAY,
THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD AND PUSHES THE COOLER AIRMASS FURTHER SOUTH. ONCE THIS
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE AREA, THE UPPER
TROUGH STALLS AND MAX TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AS THIS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. WHILE THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY, THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES AMONG THE THE GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS UPPER
LOW TO OUR WEST WILL EVOLVE, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS SHOWING THE LOW
BECOMING CUT OFF, AND OTHERS HAVING IT BEING PICKED UP THE MAIN
FLOW AND TRAVERSING OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL IMPACT THE TIMING
OF ANY PRECIPITATION. THE BEST LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE CLOSER TO THE FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS
KANSAS. THIS GIVES OUR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES AND
LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 THE BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, WITH THE MOST SOUTHERN LOCATIONS HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR AMOUNTS OF 1-3 INCHES. SIMILAR TO THE PRECIPITATION
EVENT THAT OCCURRED NEAR THE START OF THE MONTH, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE BANDS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AND IDENTIFYING EXACTLY
WHERE THOSE WILL SET UP, IF EVEN IN OUR AREA, WILL BE DIFFICULT
AND SOMETHING TO WATCH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
INCREASING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ANTICIPATED DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS SUNDAY. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, EXPECT MODEST LLWS
EVIDENT IN VWP TO CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND DAYBREAK...
DIMINISHING BY 12Z OR SO AT KEAR AND A COUPLE OF HOURS LATER
(14Z) AT KGRI. STEADY SOUTH WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE AT THE
SURFACE...WITH A FEW GUSTS 20-25KTS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT LATE IN THE DAY. ANY LLWS SUNDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE TERMINALS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCOTT
DISCUSSION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...ROSSI
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