188
FXUS63 KGID 142315
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
615 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
OVERALL FOCUS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE CHANCES TONIGHT.
OVERALL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A SHALLOW PERTURBATION GIVING US
SOME SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY
THUNDER.
LATER ON, WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT NEAR OUR CWA SOUTHERN BORDER,
AND MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG OR NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AND MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS
WILL PROBABLY BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO GET CLIPPED BY A WIND EVENT
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A GLANCE AS
THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA. MUCAPE WILL BE LIMITED, SO WE WILL DEPEND ON THE
MODERATE BULK SHEAR AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURRING
JUST SOUTH OR VERY NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AT THE NOSE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS, ONLY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FARTHER
SOUTH THAN TONIGHT AS TONIGHT'S CONVECTION MAY HELP TO PUSH THE
BOUNDARY A TAD FARTHER SOUTH FOR THE NEXT ROUND, LEAVING US LIKELY
TOO FAR NORTH TO GET THE BRUNT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS WITH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AND TYPICAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ARE EXPECTED. THE FORECAST WILL STILL READ WETTER THAN WHAT WILL
ACTUALLY OCCUR AS THESE WILL ONLY BE CHANCES FOR EACH PERIOD, AND
CERTAINLY NO GUARANTEE OF RAIN FOR EACH PERIOD.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOWERING CEILINGS, AND HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST. AS FAR AS THE PRECIP CHANCES GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOW THE BRUNT OF ACTIVITY
SLIDING ACROSS KS, WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY THE
FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. AT THIS POINT ONLY HAVE A VC MENTION GOING.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD, MORE
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, TURNING MORE
EASTERLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...ADP
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