744
FXUS63 KGID 051942
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND SEASONAL FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
- BEST POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY -
FRIDAY, WITH WEDNESDAY HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL (30-60%)
CHANCE.
- INDICATIONS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL HEATING UP BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND,
WITH EXTREME HEAT POSSIBLE THE WEEK OF JULY 12TH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK-WEEK IS SEASONAL AND DRY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN TO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WORK-WEEK. A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVING ATOP THE RIDGE WILL BREAK
IT DOWN AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY MIDWEEK.
THE RETURN TO MORE ZONAL TYPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK-WEEK. LEE
TROUGHING WILL CAUSE A FRONT TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
MODEL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE NEXT UPPER WAVE WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE BEST PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL (40-60% CHANCE) ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT WITH LESS CONFIDENCE. THURSDAY THE BEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS
SLIDING SOUTHEAST INTO KANSAS WITH A 25-50% CHANCE FOR CENTRAL,
SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BY
FRIDAY THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IS CLOSER TO 20% FOR THE
AREA AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AS
THIS OCCURS, RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE WEST.
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 80S, WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL FOR EARLY/MID JULY.
MOVING INTO THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, NEXT WEEKEND, AND
BEYOND. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT HEAT WAVE. THIS IS
DUE TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. ENSEMBLE MEAN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MOVE CLOSE TO THE
TRIPLE DIGIT MARK, ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE INTO THE NEXT WORK-WEEK.
DETAILS WILL CHANGE, BUT CURRENT GRAND ENSEMBLE VALUES SHOW 20%
CHANCE OF THE MAX TEMPERATURE EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ON MONDAY
THE 13TH, AND 40% CHANCE OF THE MAX TEMPERATURE EXCEEDING 100
DEGREES ON THE 14TH. THIS PERIOD IS SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR
EXTREME HEAT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
DAY AT BOTH TERMINALS BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. BY
MORNING AS MIXING INCREASES, EXPECT WINDS TO BE SOUTHERLY AROUND
15KTS. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON IN DAYTIME HEATING, BUT EXPECT THESE TO BE SCATTERED
AND VFR.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page