950
FXUS63 KGID 181752
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1152 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE HOT & DRY
CONDITIONS OF YESTERDAY, AND THE RETURN OF WINTRY CONDITIONS
ON THURSDAY. VERY DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY, BUT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHTER - SO FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL.
- GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW, BUT HEAVY, WEST TO EAST BAND OF SNOW. AREAS N OF
I-80 APPEAR TO BE MOST AT RISK, AND THIS IS WHERE A WINTER
STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF 5-7" OF SNOW,
COMBINED WITH MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH.
- ANOTHER WEAK, QUICK-HITTING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS (AROUND 1", OR LESS) FURTHER S TO THE REST OF
THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY PM INTO SATURDAY AM.
- PATTERN MODERATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AND THEN WARMER 50S AND
60S RETURN FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
PRIMARY FORECAST CHANGE WITH THIS PACKAGE IS THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR VALLEY, LOUP, HOWARD, AND GREELEY
COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
TODAY WILL SERVE AS A TRANSITION DAY BETWEEN THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, TO A
MUCH COLDER AND MORE WINTRY FEW DAYS FROM THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY. DEW POINTS REMAIN VERY DRY IN THE TEENS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA THIS MORNING, AND DON'T EXPECT MUCH IMPROVEMENT/INCR
DURING THE DAY TODAY AS VERY DRY AIR REMAINS LOCKED IN WELL INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND STILL MILD AIR
BEHIND YESTERDAY'S PACIFIC-BASED COOL FRONT SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 60S THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
YIELD WIDESPREAD MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 15 TO
20 PERCENT RANGE. THIS IS SOLIDLY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, AND FORTUNATELY, WINDS WON'T BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR TO A MORE
SERIOUS FIRE WEATHER CONCERN TODAY. LATEST PLAN VIEW AND
FORECAST SOUNDING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN
20-25 MPH, OR LESS - SO MORE IN THE "NEAR-CRITICAL" RANGE.
STILL WOULD NOT ADVISE ANY BURNING, AND FIRES MAY STILL BEHAVE
AGGRESSIVELY, BUT IT'S NOT AS BAD AS YESTERDAY.
A MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE FROM THE N
TONIGHT AS OUR NEXT DISTURBANCE DIGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS FROM MOST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A RATHER NARROW, BUT POTENTIALLY
INTENSE, BAND OF SNOW THAT WILL DEVELOP W TO E ACROSS THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT, AND FOCUS ON THE DAYTIME THROUGH EVENING HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE EXACT
LATITUDE OF THIS BAND (NAM AND A SOUTHERN OUTLIER, AND 00Z HRRR
A NORTHERN ONE)...RECENT VERSIONS OF THE EPS AND GEFS, ALONG
WITH DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS SUCH AS THE EC AND REGIONAL
CANADIAN, PLACE THE MAIN BAND BETWEEN I-80 ON THE SOUTH, AND THE
NE/SD BORDER ON THE NORTH. ALSO, THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THE HEAVIEST SWATH OF SNOW - POTENTIALLY IN THE 4-6"
(LOCALLY HIGHER?) MAY BE QUITE NARROW N TO S AT AROUND ONLY
40-60 MILES. THUS, EVEN SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN THE PLACEMENT COULD
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON EXACT AMOUNTS FOR ANY GIVEN
AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW,
GUIDANCE ALSO REMAINS CONSISTENT THAT THE SNOW WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ELEVATED NRLY WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH. THIS
COULD EASILY BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW
AND POOR VISIBILITIES - ESP. CONSIDERING SOME HOURLY QPF DATA
THAT SUPPORTS A FEW HOURS OF NEARLY 1"/HR SNOW RATES WITHIN THE
ULTRA NARROW SNOW BAND.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS WERE ENOUGH TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR OUR FOUR COUNTIES N/NW OF GRAND ISLAND.
IMPACTS WILL BE FELT BY DAYTIME TRAVELERS, PARTICULARLY FROM THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH EVENING HOURS. HOPEFULLY NEWER MODEL
GUIDANCE CAN HONE IN ON THE EXACT LOCATION LATER TODAY, AND
WOULD EXPECT WE'LL NEED A BUFFER WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT
LEAST A ROW OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH.
ANOTHER, WEAKER, DISTURBANCE IF FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS AREAS
FURTHER S THAT MISS OUT ON THE WORST OF THURSDAY'S SYSTEM
SOMETIME IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING TIME
FRAME. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AS STRONG/ORGANIZED, NOR HAVE AS
MUCH WIND AS THURSDAY'S SYSTEM...BUT COULD STILL SEE A RATHER
BROAD SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS (AROUND 1", OR LESS) FOR AREAS
ALONG AND ESP. S OF I-80.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 339 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...
NOT REALLY ANY SURPRISES SO FAR TODAY, A DRY, WARM, GUSTY DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING ALOFT, UPPER AIR AND
SATELLITE DATA ARE SHOWING LARGER SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS AND BROAD RIDGING OVER THE EAST...LEAVING THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AXIS IS SWINGING NE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS, ROUGHLY
ORIENTATED FROM CENTRAL MT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS. THE
ACCOMPANYING SFC TROUGH AXIS IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH A COLD FRONT NOT LAGGING TOO
FAR BEHIND. AHEAD OF THESE BOUNDARIES, WINDS REMAIN SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY, SWITCHING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THAT INITIAL BOUNDARY. GUSTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CLIMB EXCEED 45-50 MPH,
MAINLY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT BOUNDARY. EXPANDED THE MENTION OF
PATCHY BLOWING DUST ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA, OBS
ALONG OUR WESTERN EDGE HAVE DROPPED DOWN TO JUST A FEW MILES AT
TIMES. HI- RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ISOLATED PRECIPITATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HRS, AND IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE COULD BE A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO, SO DID INSERT THAT MENTION INTO THE FORECAST.
WITH THE LOWER LEVELS BEING SO DRY/INCREASED MIXING ACROSS THE
AREA, THINK IT'LL BE TOUGH TO GET MORE THAN
SPRINKLES/TRACE...THE BIGGER CONCERN LIES WITH WHETHER THIS
ACTIVITY CAN DRAG DOWN STRONGER WINDS TO THE SFC, ANY OF THAT
ACTIVITY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO RESULT IN GUSTS CLOSER TO
55-60 MPH.
THE TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THOSE STRONG WIND
GUSTS, PRECIPITATION, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, AND DUST IS NOW
THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING. THE RED FLAG WARNING CURRENTLY
GOES THROUGH 10PM THIS EVENING, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IMPROVING SOME AS TEMPS COOL...BUT NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT, AS FORECAST RH VALUES ONLY CLIMB INTO THE 40S BY
12Z WED. IN ADDITION, WHILE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF
SOME, GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS HAVE PANNED OUT CLOSE TO AS EXPECTED, WITH 3PM
HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S...BOTH GRAND ISLAND AND HASTINGS HAVE
ALREADY BROKEN THE THEIR DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR
TODAY (GI RECORD WAS 72, HSI WAS 74). BOTH LOOK TO ALSO SET NEW
RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY, AS IT'S UNLIKELY THEY'LL
DROP BELOW THIS MORNING'S TEMPS OF 42 AT GI (RECORD WAS 41) AND
44 AT HSI (RECORD WAS 37) BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
MID TO LATE WEEK...
LOOKING AT WEDNESDAY, THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES ON THROUGH AT
LEAST THE DAYTIME-EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDING THROUGH
THE REGION, SET UP BETWEEN TODAY'S SYSTEM DEPARTING OFF TO THE
NE AND THE NEXT ON WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH THE AREA LOSING INFLUENCE
FROM SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO MN AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CO...BRINGING A SWITCH FROM WESTERLY WINDS TO START
THE DAY TO MORE ESERLY WINDS BY EVENING TIME. IT'LL BE COOLER,
BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. AIRMASS
REMAINS DRY, ALLOWING FOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO FALL BELOW
20 PERCENT...BUT THE OVERALL LIGHTER WINDS (AFTERNOON GUSTS
CLOSER TO 15-20 MPH POSSIBLE) WILL HELP KEEP GREATER FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MORESO INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY, THE
FIRST OF A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL REMIND US
THAT IT'S STILL WINTER...BRINGING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
HASN'T BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN MODELS...SHOWING THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TODAY STALLING OUT OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES, FORCING THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO TAKE MORE OF AN EASTERLY
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SHARPER,
NARROW BAND OF SNOW...CONTINUING TO MAINLY FAVOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF NEBRASKA. QUESTIONS REMAIN WITH JUST HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW
EXTENDS, LIKELY ENDING UP WITH A SHARPER GRADIENT THAN WHAT'S
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. CHANCES IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE
REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG/NORTH OF I- 80 (BEST CHANCES ALONG/NORTH OF
HWY 92), DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT ALONG THE NE/KS STATE
LINE. PLENTY OF DETAILS TO IRON OUT IN THE COMING DAYS...EC
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWING A 60+ PERCENT PROBABILITY OF 1 IN OR MORE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF...GFS ENSEMBLES TOP OUT CLOSER TO 40-50
PERCENT. IN ADDITION TO THE ACCUMULATING SNOW CHANCES, THIS
SYSTEM WILL USHER IN A REINFORCING COLD FRONT, BRINGING GUSTY NW
WINDS. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLAN TO THE NORTH WILL WANT TO KEEP ON
EYE ON HOW THIS TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS. EVEN COLDER HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED, TOPPING OUT NEAR 30 IN THE NORTH TO LOWER 40S IN
THE SOUTH.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE DAY ON FRIDAY, BUT ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THERE HAVE BEEN MORE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN MODELS/RUNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT THIS ONE CURRENTLY LOOKS TO FAVOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. HIGHS FOR BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMAINS IN THE 30S-NEAR 40 RANGE.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
NOT A LOT OF FOCUS ON THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BECOMING A BIGGER DRIVER ONCE
AGAIN...DRYING THE FORECAST OUT FOR SUN-TUE. EXPECTING A GRADUAL
WARM UP, WITH HIGHS TUESDAY BACK IN THE 50S-NEAR 60.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BECOMING
MVFR-IFR LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
SCT-BKN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT
CEILINGS STEADILY LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
AREA. CEILINGS FALL BELOW 5000FT BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS AS
SNOW APPROACHES THE AREA. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
FAR SOUTH THE SNOW MAKES IT, AS IT COULD STALL JUST NORTH OF THE
TAF SITES. THERE IS AT LEAST ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO WARRANT A
PROB30 MENTION, WITH A PREVAILING GROUP USED TO INDICATE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SNOW JUST PAST THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY WITH ANY FALLING SNOW, WITH MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES IN
FALLING SNOW (CAUSED BY BLOWING SNOW). SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK
TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, UNDER AN INCH FOR BOTH KGRI AND KEAR.
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME LIGHT THIS EVENING AS THEY
SHIFT TO THE EAST. WINDS STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY, SUSTAINED AROUND 15KTS AND GUSTING AROUND 25KTS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER SUNRISE, GUSTING 25-30KTS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NEZ039-040-046-047.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...THIES
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...DAVIS
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