464  
FXUS63 KGID 241149  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
649 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
I STUCK SOME AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL AND  
EASTERN CWA, WITH A STRONG SIGNAL PICKED UP BY HRRR. HRRR  
INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD DIMINISH BY 11 AM OR SO.  
 
AS THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE SLOWLY MOVES EAST, THE SHOWERS THIS  
MORNING SHOULD DO THE SAME. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WRAP-  
AROUND MOISTURE TO RE-IGNITE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON,  
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA, CLOSER TO THE  
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONE.  
 
ANOTHER PERTURBATION WORKS IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO  
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND COULD GIVE US SOME SPOTTY  
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES KEEP OUR PRECIP ALL  
LIQUID, ALTHOUGH WE COULD BE CUTTING IT CLOSE TONIGHT IN OUR FAR  
NORTH/WEST.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
A BIT OF A STRONGER PERTURBATION COMES BY  
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, GIVING SOME AREAS A LITTLE MORE  
CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT, AND STAYING ALL  
LIQUID.  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO MID-WEEK, WITH  
HIGHS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST INTO THE 70S, WITH A STIFF SOUTH  
BREEZE. WE COULD GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A  
DECENT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT  
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS JET AXIS  
LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE MORE FOCUSED EAST OF THE CWA, AND REALLY  
UNSURE IF WE HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT YET. CAN'T RULE SEVERE  
CHANCES COMPLETELY OUT, BUT DEFINITELY NOT A SLAM DUNK.  
 
THIS TROUGH IS TRENDING SLOWER, SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A DECENT  
CHANCE TO ACHIEVE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE  
COLD AIR ARRIVES.  
 
LOOKS LIKE TOO MUCH CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE USED IN OUR FORECAST FOR  
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MODELS SEEM TO BE UNDERDOING JUST HOW MUCH  
COLD AIR ADVECTION WE WILL GET, BUT WE'LL GET A BETTER HANDLE ON  
THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RIGHT NOW OUR FORECAST IS FOR  
MAINLY 40S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY, BUT WE MAY ONLY MAKE 30S FOR HIGHS  
WITH STRONG NORTH WIND, AND WILL FEEL MORE LIKE A WINTER DAY THAN  
SPRING. ON SATURDAY, WE MAY BE LUCKY TO HIT JUST 40 DEGREES IN  
THE TRI- CITIES, ALTHOUGH OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS IN THE MID 40S  
FOR NOW. THE COOL TREND SEEMS TO BE STICKING AROUND THROUGH  
PERHAPS INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL, ACCORDING TO ENSEMBLES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
CEILINGS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR THIS MORNING, AT LEAST  
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL  
CYCLONE SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOWS CEILINGS TO INCREASE. VISIBILITY  
MAY BE QUITE VARIABLE THIS MORNING AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN KGRI,  
BUT IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY 16Z OR SO, IF NOT SOONER. VFR  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING NEAR 00-03Z, AND GUSTINESS TO  
THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS WELL.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN  
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN  
AVIATION...HEINLEIN  
 
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