229
FXUS63 KGID 071136
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
536 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE
TRI-CITIES AREA IN NEBRASKA.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RAIN (AND SOME SNOW) MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- LOW CONFIDENCE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO TEMPERATURE
UNCERTAINTY AND MODEL DIFFERENCES IN PRECIPITATION PLACEMENT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST. ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON TODAY FOR
AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE TRI-CITIES DUE TO A COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TODAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE
IN THE 30S.
RAIN MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO PRIMARILY NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE
TONIGHT (15% TO NEAR 45% CHANCE). THIS RAIN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO WHEN AND WHERE THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW WILL OCCUR. MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TEMPERATURE AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ARE
CONTRIBUTING TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. THE AREA OF GREATEST UNCERTAINTY
APPEARS TO BE FROM AROUND FURNAS COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
TRI-CITIES TO AROUND YORK. THIS AREA HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THE
MOST SNOW (ISOLATED AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE UP TO AROUND 5 TO 7
INCHES - HIGH END POTENTIAL) DUE TO PRECIPITATION OUTPUT FROM MODELS
WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. THE BIGGEST DETERMINING FACTOR IN
SNOW TOTALS AND FACTOR OF MOST UNCERTAINTY ARE THE TEMPERATURES.
MANY AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA, MAY RECEIVE
ANYWHERE FROM A TRACE TO NEARLY 2-3 INCHES OF SNOW. SNOW TOTALS, ON
THE LOW END, MAY RANGE FROM A TRACE TO AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES. ANY
REMAINING PRECIPITATION, LIKELY IN THE FORM OF SNOW, IS EXPECTED TO
CLEAR OUT OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 452 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
-- 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE COMMENTS, INCLUDING ANY
CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES WORTH MENTIONING:
- BESIDES NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NOW EXPECTED IN
OUR NORTHERN CWA FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (AND INTRODUCED TO
OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK), BY FAR THE MAIN FORECAST
CHANGE IS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES (POPS) FOR BOTH THURSDAY
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT FRIDAY HAVE RAMPED UP QUITE A BIT (AND
LIKELY NOT NEARLY ENOUGH FOR THURSDAY).
- THAT BEING SAID, EVEN BY DAY 2-3 OUT-IN-TIME STANDARDS,
UNCERTAINTY IS PLENTY HIGH REGARDING "EXACTLY" HOW SNOW
POTENTIAL WILL PLAY OUT. FORTUNATELY, WHETHER OR NOT SNOW DOES
INDEED BECOME MUCH OF AN ISSUE, MOST OF OUR CWA (ESPECIALLY
THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS) IS NOW EXPECTED TO SEE A DECENT WINTER
RAIN (AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH...PERHAPS A HALF INCH
FAR SOUTHEAST?)...WHICH IS MUCH-NEEDED AND SHOULD SOAK IN
NICELY GIVEN THE UNFROZEN GROUND.
-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS (THROUGH TUES. JAN.
13TH):
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 PM:
WILL STATE UP FRONT THAT SPENT MORE TIME THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED
TODAY DEALING WITH VERY-SHORT-TERM FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. IN
SHORT, TEMPERATURES (WARMER) DEWPOINTS/RELATIVE HUMIDITY
(LOWER/DRIER) AND WINDS (BREEZIER) ALL AT LEAST SLIGHTLY
"OVERACHIEVED" THIS AFTERNOON...BRINGING WIDESPREAD "NEAR-
CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF OUR CWA (ESPECIALLY
THE WESTERN HALF), AND OUTRIGHT-CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO MAINLY
OUR EXTREME WEST-SOUTHWEST COUNTIES (A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR A SHORT WHILE LONGER FOR
DAWSON/GOSPER/FURNAS/PHILLIPS/ROOKS.
UNDER PRISTINELY CLEAR SKIES, HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY-
EXCEEDED EXPECTATIONS FROM OUR EARLY-AM FORECAST, WITH MOST OF
THE CWA TOPPING OUT 58-64 DEGREES (HASTINGS BROKE ITS JAN. 6TH
RECORD...SEE DETAILS IN CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). AIDING THE VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WERE BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS (COMMONLY
SUSTAINED AT LEAST 15-20 MPH/GUSTING AT LEAST 20-30 MPH (AND
LOCALIZED HIGHER ESPECIALLY FAR WEST).
IN THE BIG PICTURE OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS, WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM BROAD WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERHEAD, WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY DEPARTING FROM EASTERN NE INTO IA LIKELY
AIDING IN SOMEWHAT-ENHANCING TODAY'S BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- TONIGHT:
THIS WILL BE A TRANQUIL/QUIET NIGHT UNDER CONTINUED CLEAR/MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES. ONCE THE ENHANCED AFTERNOON WINDS SUBSIDE, THE
EVENING-OVERNIGHT WILL FEATURE ONLY LIGHT-BUT-STEADY
SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES MAINLY 5-10 MPH. LOW TEMPS ARE AIMED ONLY
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING (MOST AREAS 28-32, WITH ANY MID 20S MOST
FAVORED FAR WEST.
- WEDNESDAY DAYTIME:
IF YOU ARE INTO WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF FALL THAN WINTER, THEN
GET OUT AND ENJOY THIS! ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL
BE ON A GRADUAL INCREASE (MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON), THIS WILL
SIMPLY BE ONE FINAL VERY WARM DAY (PROBABLY RECORD BREAKING FOR
JAN. 7TH?), WITH LESS WIND THAN TODAY IN MOST PLACES. HIGH TEMPS
WERE GEARED TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE, AND WERE RAISED A
GOOD 2-4 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS PUTS MOST OF OUR
CWA INTO THE 61-64 RANGE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. WINDS WILL MAINLY
BE OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IN MOST OF OUR CWA, EXCEPT FOR FAR
NORTHERN COUNTIES WHERE THEY WILL REMAIN MORE WESTERLY.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN MOST PLACES 5-15 MPH/GUSTS 10-20 MPH.
HOWEVER, ESPECIALLY NORTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE WESTERLY GUSTS
MORE SO 20-25 MPH (DRIVING NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS).
- WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE
THURSDAY WITH ONLY INCREASING CLOUDS AS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER
WAVE/SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
HOWEVER, VERY LATE IN THE NIGHT THE LEADING EDGE OF RAIN SHOWERS
(NON-FREEZING) COULD REACH OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES (MAINLY KS
COUNTIES). LOW TEMPS AIMED LOW-MID 30S MOST PLACES EXCEPT UPPER
30S FAR SOUTHEAST.
- THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT (HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SNOW CHANCE #1):
IN SHORT, THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, SPREADING AN EXPANSIVE
SHIELD OF WHAT WILL START OUT AS MUCH-NEEDED "PLAIN" RAIN
NORTHWARD ACROSS/INTO MOST OF OUR CWA. THE "MILLION DOLLAR
QUESTION" IS WHETHER ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING CAN OCCUR ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THIS RAIN BAND TO CAUSE A POTENTIALLY "SNEAKY"
CHANGEOVER TO VERY WET/SLUSHY SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON-EVENING
HOURS. CONSIDERING THAT OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST CURRENTLY FEATURES
NO TRUE SNOW ACCUMULATION, MODEL SOLUTIONS SUCH A THE LATEST
NAMNEST (WHICH TRIES TO IMPLY THAT AT LEAST 2-4 INCHES OF WET
SNOW COULD FALL IN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST STRIPE ACROSS THE HEART
OF OUR CWA) ARE ADMITTEDLY A BIT UNCOMFORTABLE GIVEN THIS IS
ONLY A FEW DAYS AWAY. NO MATTER HOW MUCH/HOW LITTLE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING,
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LARGELY DEPART BY MIDNIGHT, PUTTING OUR
AREA IN A "LULL"/BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURE-WISE,
ALTHOUGH THINGS COULD DROP SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER IN THE
AFTERNOON UNDER THE HEAVIEST PRECIP, AT LEAST FOR NOW WE'RE
CALLING FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE MID-UPPER 40S MOST AREAS. IN
SUMMARY: OUR FORECAST MAY HAVE TO DRASTICALLY PIVOT TOWARD
HIGHER SNOW POTENTIAL FAIRLY LATE IN THE GAME IF SOME MODEL
TRENDS HOLD (AT LEAST HAVE INTRODUCED POTENTIAL TO OUR HWO FOR
NOW).
- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
WHILE THURSDAY CARRIES MORE PRECIP TYPE/CHANGEOVER ISSUES,
FRIDAY IS MORE ABOUT WHETHER OUR CWA WILL SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION
AT ALL AS THE PRIMARY, LARGER-SCALE UPPER TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THAT BEING SAID, WHAT DOES FALL WOULD
MORE ASSUREDLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW. TO MAKE A LONG STORY
SHORT, THE LATEST NAM/GFS KEEP THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR CWA (ALL
BUT THE FAR SOUTH) SNOW- FREE...WHILE THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN DROPPING UP TO A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION OVER
THE SOUTHEAST 1/3 TO 1/2 OF OUR CWA. UNLIKE THURSDAY, OUR
OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES AT LEAST CARRY SOME MINIMAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION (HIGHEST OVER OUR KS ZONES). PLENTY OF TIME TO SORT
THINGS OUT, BUT THIS COULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM A SOMEWHAT SNOWY
AFTERNOON-EVENING, TO SIMPLY A CHILLY AND SNOW-FREE TIME FRAME.
HIGH TEMPS WERE NUDGED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S MOST AREAS
(PERHAPS NOT LOW ENOUGH?).
- SATURDAY-SAT NIGHT:
OUR OFFICIAL FORECAST IS MOSTLY DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LARGE
SCALE SYSTEM, BUT BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS SUGGEST THAT WE'LL NEED TO
BE WARY OF SOME SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL (PROBABLY SOMEWHAT
CONVECTIVE IN NATURE). HIGH TEMPS WERE ALSO LOWERED A GOOD 2-4
DEGREES HERE...NOW MAINLY MID-UPPER 30S.
- SUNDAY-TUESDAY:
THESE THREE DAYS APPEAR MAINLY DRY (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY- MONDAY)
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM, BUT CONTINUED WEAKER WAVES
WILL PASS BY UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HIGH TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO REBOUND FROM MAINLY 40S SUNDAY...TO MORE IN THE WAY
OF LOW 50S FOR MON-TUES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST WED JAN 7 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BY 12Z THURSDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULDT
DISCUSSION...PFANNKUCH
AVIATION...SCHULDT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page