124
FXUS63 KGID 142328
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
528 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A 20-50% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAYTIME MONDAY
(BEST CONFIDENCE NORTH AND EAST) AND A 30-40% CHANCE OF MORE
OFF-AND-ON PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY (BEST
CONFIDENCE SOUTH AND EAST).
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SLIDE DOWN THOROUGH THE WEEKEND, SETTLING
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SOAK IN THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THIS RECORD MID NOVEMBER HEAT BECAUSE
HIGHS SLIDE BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S FOR A MAJORITY
OF NEXT WEEK. TONIGHT, LOWS WILL SETTLE IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S,
LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST LOWS WE COULD SEE HERE FOR A WHILE. HIGHS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND (MID 60S TO MID 70S FOR SATURDAY AND LOW
TO MID 60S FOR SUNDAY), WILL FOLLOW A DOWNWARD TREND LEADING INTO
TUESDAY.
LIGHT TO STEADY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WILL FLIP TO THE NORTH ONCE A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES SOUTH
AND THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FLIP IN WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL CUT OFF THE SOUTHWESTERLY WARM AIR ADVECTING
DOWNSLOPE WINDS THAT HAVE RECENTLY HELPED BUMP THE TEMPERATURES UP.
A SLIVER OF HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE FORMING IN PLACE BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL SPREAD IN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD KEEP WINDS TOWARDS THE LIGHTER END OF SPEEDS (MAINLY
<15MPH), GRADUALLY PULLING WIND DIRECTIONS BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN OUT OF THE QUESTION UNTIL MONDAY MORNING AS THE
REMNANTS OF A WEST CENTRAL CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPIRALS TOWARDS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD ADDITIONALLY EMERGE OUT
OF THE EASTERN ROCKIES AS THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES IN
(POTENTIAL VORTICITY STRETCHING LEADING TO CYCLOGENESIS). THIS LOW
LOOKS AS IF IT WILL TRACK EAST AND ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY,
POTENTIALLY STIRRING UP A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS ITS NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SIDE.
THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS (GFS/ECMWF) HAVE BEGAN TO DIVERGE OUTCOME WISE
WITH THE ECMWF FAVORING A MORE BROAD AND GENERALLY GREATER
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AREA (NOW ALSO OBSERVED WITH THE NAM MODEL)
WHERE AS THE GFS IS FAVORING MORE COMPRESSED AND FURTHER NORTHWARD
LYING PRECIPITATION BANDS. THIS DISAGREEMENT IN OUTCOMES HAVE
BROUGHT MORE QUESTION TO HOW MUCH THE LOCAL AREA MAY ACTUALLY
OBSERVE. CURRENT PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ARE NO GREATER THAN 0.15"
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THOUGH A MORE ECMWF/NAM LIKE SCENARIO SHOULD
BE ABLE TO OFFER MORE IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATIONS (WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE POPS AND ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS INCREASE). IT IS
IMPORTANT TO KNOW THAT GIVEN THE WELL ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AND THE FACT THAT THIS PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED TO FALL DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS ON MONDAY, SNOW WILL NOT EXPECTED.
ASSUMING THAT THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT WOBBLE MUCH FROM ITS
CURRENT NORTHERN KANSAS PROJECTION, THE BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
(CURRENTLY 35-50%) WOULD CONTINUE TO FALL FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80 OR
EAST OF THE TRI-CITIES. THOUGH ALL AREAS WILL HAVE SOME SHOT AT
SEEING AT LEAST A TRACE OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY (CURRENTLY 20-50%
CHANCES FOR NEBRASKA AND 10-25% CHANCES FOR KANSAS), A FEW OF THE
MORE SOUTHERN LYING LOCATIONS COULD BE MISSED ALTOGETHER.
BESIDES THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS LEVELING OFF IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S
THEREAFTER (THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRIDAY). WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY WITH DIRECTIONS BRIEFLY ORIENTING NORTH AS THE LOW
DEPARTS ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD HAS BEEN A GRADUAL
UPTICK OF CONFIDENCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
(CURRENTLY 30-40% CHANCES). THE GLOBAL MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST
DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WITH THE ECMWF COMING IN DRIER THAN THE GFS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY). THOUGH MODELS
DO NOT YET ALIGN WELL IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS, BOTH HAVE
SEEM TO COME TO THE CONCLUSION THAT A SOUTHWEST U.S. TROUGH WILL
SWING OVER INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AROUND THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
THOUGH THE GREATEST POPS CURRENTLY LIE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS. THIS SYSTEM EARLY ON LOOKS TO WANT TO TAKE A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK, ALIGNING THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS OUR
SOUTH AND EASTWARD LYING LOCATIONS. THE POSSIBILITY OF A PERIOD
OF MIXED PRECIPITATION OR SNOW CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
QUITE YET (FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND MORE
LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT) THOUGH RAIN SHOULD BE THE DOMINATE
PRECIPITATION TYPE THROUGHOUT. GIVEN HOW FAR OUT THIS EVENT IS,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH SEVERAL DETAILS YET TO
BE WORKED OUT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST FRI NOV 14 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
HIGH CLOUDS (20KFT+) MOVES IN TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING.
A PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE FRONT, BUT WAS TOO
MARGINAL TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAF.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...MANGELS
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