644  
FXUS63 KGID 280523  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
1123 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 601 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021  
 
THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. WHILE WINDS  
WILL BE STEADY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE  
INCREASED.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021  
 
INTERESTING DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AS WIDESPREAD FOG THIS  
MORNING ACROSS KANSAS TRANSITIONED INTO WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES  
DOWN TO START THE DAY. THAT SAID...CONTINUE TO SEE RAPID CLEARING  
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND COULD STILL SEE A LATE  
DAY SPIKE IN TEMPS. AS A RESULT...DID NOT ADJUST HIGH TEMPS  
SIGNIFICANTLY...JUST THE DIURNAL CURVE SOME...AND KEPT THE RFW IN  
TACK FOR ROOKS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE CONDITIONS STILL  
NOT QUITE REACHING NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS OF THIS TIME. THIS  
SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY  
ACROSS ROOKS COUNTY...WHERE THE RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATE RH  
VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE FOCUS TO SHIFT NORTH AS AN APPROACHING  
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INITIALLY INHERITED A  
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN FRINGES THIS  
EVENING...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS SOME...WITH THE RAP  
STILL INDICATING A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR  
EAST AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AXIS POSITIONED JUST TO  
OUR EAST...THINK IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD  
REMAIN PRIMARILY IN OAXS AREA. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT  
PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSING COLD  
FRONT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION (LIQUID OR OTHERWISE) SHOULD BE  
MINIMAL...WITH ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO IN THE FORECAST...AND EVEN  
THAT IS QUESTIONABLE.  
 
FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SUNSHINE  
RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE  
FORECAST...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEINGS TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS  
THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY AND A PAIR OF SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK  
(TUESDAY/THURSDAY) ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO SLIDE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF  
THE LOCAL AREA. DESPITE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL TIMING  
OF THESE NEXT TWO UPPER LOWS...THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM THE GFS/EC  
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...AND ANTICIPATE A DRY WEEK ACROSS THE LOCAL  
AREA...WITH ONLY THE SMALLEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS  
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE SECOND LOW THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
AS A RESULT...THE MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER  
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE MAIN STORY...WITH  
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY RUNNING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE  
SEASONAL NORMS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021  
 
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME  
MVFR CEILINGS TO THE NORTH THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE  
TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...FAY  
DISCUSSION...ROSSI  
AVIATION...JCB  
 
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