704
FXUS63 KGID 170934
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
434 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 1PM UNTIL 9PM FOR OUR KANSAS
AND A FEW FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
- A FEW STORMS (POTENTIALLY BECOMING SEVERE) WILL BE POSSIBLE
MAINLY BETWEEN 4-10PM. THE PRIMARY CONCERNS INCLUDE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND THUNDERSTORM WINDS GUSTS NEAR 60
MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
- NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE (30-50%) SATURDAY NIGHT TO MAINLY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH INCREASING CHANCES NEXT WEEK.
- COOLER TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND (50S & 60S) WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
THE 70S BEYOND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
TODAY...
A STEADY 10-20 MPH SOUTHERLY WIND THIS MORNING WILL PRELUDE A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEFORE ITS PASSAGE, WARM MOIST
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MIX IN THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. HIGHS
TODAY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S FOR OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS (FIRST
AREAS THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH) TO THE LOW 90S TOWARDS THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST. PLEASE REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION DOWN BELOW
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL AS A FEW NEBRASKA AREAS
ALONG THE STATE LINE.
ALOFT, THE REGION FALLS UNDER A TRANSITION ZONE FROM AN EXITING
RIDGE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH MERGING WITH A SOUTHWESTERN U.S. UPPER-
LEVEL LOW. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PROMOTE CAA IN THE MID-LEVELS,
STEEPENING THE LAPSE RATES AS WELL AS PROVIDE SOME PVA. THE MAIN
FEATURE OF CONCERN LIES AT THE SURFACE AS AN AFTERNOON PASSING COLD
FRONT IS SET TO INTERACT WITH A DRYLINE SET UP ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE STATE BORDER. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE 990MB SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA.
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER RESTS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR NORTHERN AREAS INCLUDING AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL
3 OF 5) ACROSS ARE FAR EAST-NORTHEASTERN AREAS. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FAVORED BETWEEN BETWEEN 4-10PM. A MODEST LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION MAY LIMIT THE TOTAL NUMBER OF STORMS ABLE TO PUNCH
THROUGH THIS CAP, KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR ANY SINGLE LOCATION TO
RECEIVE A STORM LOWER THAN NORMAL (20-30% CHANCE). ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO EXHIBIT SEVERE CHARACTERISTICS
INCLUDING 60 MPH THUNDERSTORM GUSTS WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS AS THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. THE BEST POTENTIAL LIES ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-80 WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE EAST. A FEW
STORMS STILL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FURTHER SOUTH, THOUGH THE
POTENTIAL DECREASES RAPIDLY.
MOST CAMS RESOLVE A SUPERCELL OR TWO DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT
/ DRY LINE BOUNDARY (THE TIPPLE POINT) THOUGH THE AREA OF INITIATION
REMAINS BLURRED (DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT). THOUGH
TORNADOES ARE NOT THE PRIMARY CONCERN, AN ISOLATED SPIN UP MAY BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY GIVEN AN ESTIMATED 50-55KT OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.
THE MAIN LIMITER FOR TORNADOES WOULD BE GENERALLY HIGHER LCLS (5,000-
6,000FT).
AN AIR QUALITY ALERT REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7AM FRIDAY MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA. SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281,
MAY SEE SMOKE CONCENTRATIONS THAT ARE UNHEALTHY TO SENSITIVE GROUPS
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND TODAY'S FRONT WILL DROP HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
(50S TO LOW 60S) WITH A STEADY 15-20 MPH NORTHERLY WIND GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE PRESSURE WILL BE ON THE
RISE WITH A BROADENING PRESSURE GRADIENT LIGHTENING UP THE BECOMING
NORTHEAST WIND FIELD FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS WILL SETTLE IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCE (30-50%) MAY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS TO THE AREA. AN INTENSIFYING
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH TO NORTHEAST ALONG THE KS/MO
AND NE/IA BORDER AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE,
ESPECIALLY AS THE LOCAL AREA IS EXPECTED TO FALL UNDERNEATH THE
SYSTEM'S COOL SIDE. THIS SYSTEM WILL DROP ITS NORTHWESTERN
PRECIPITATION BANDS ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND PRIMARILY
SUNDAY MORNING. EARLY PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES ONLY 0.1-0.25 WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AND AMOUNTS TOWARDS SOUTHEAST (CLOSER TO THE
SYSTEM CENTER).
MONDAY & BEYOND...
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES (MAINLY THE 70S) WILL BE PAIR WITH A
MIDWEEK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE THAT COULD INCREASE PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE,
OSCILLATING NORTH TO SOUTH WINDS WILL MAINLY STAY IN THE LIGHTER
RANGE 10-20 MPH AS NO STRONG PRESURE CENTER IS YET PROJECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
A SOMEWHAT STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND (10-20 MPH GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30
MPH) PAIRED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES (UP TO THE 80S TO LOW 90S)
WILL BROADEN OUT NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TO AREAS MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION
REMAINS STRONG THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, DEWPOINTS WILL
STILL LIKELY LAG FAR BEHIND TEMPERATURES TANKING RH VALUE DOWN TO 10-
20% ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE KS/NE STATE LINE. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE MET ACROSS OUR KS AREAS AND A FEW SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA AREAS. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 1PM TO 9PM
THIS AFTERNOON FOR OUR KANSAS COUNTIES AS WELL AS A FEW FAR SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT WED APR 16 2025
THURSDAY WILL BE A QUITE WARM DAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS MAY SEE HUMIDITY DIP BELOW 10
PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE A BIT MORE BORDERLINE,
BUT AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE 25-30 MPH RANGE ARE
EXPECTED IN THIS AREA. AS SUCH, THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, USHERING IN BREEZY
NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY.
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT THEN REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AND 60S.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT THU APR 17 2025
NEAR RECORD HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS 87 FOR HASTINGS AND 85 FOR GRAND ISLAND WILL
COME CLOSE TO THE APRIL 17TH RECORDS. THE CURRENT DAILY HIGH RECORD
FOR HASTINGS IS 89 SET BACK IN 1985 AND 92 FOR GRAND ISLAND SET BACK
IN 1985.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ082>085.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ005>007-017>019.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...STUMP
FIRE WEATHER...STUMP
CLIMATE...STUMP
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