197
FXUS63 KGID 180021
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
721 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 MPH.
- WHILE MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 92
(CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT FARTHER SOUTH)
- TEMPERATURES MAY DIP SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING MAINLY IN OUR FAR NORTH/WEST-
CENTRAL NEBRASKA FORECAST AREA, WITH AT LEAST PATCHY FROST
ALSO POSSIBLE IN MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF MAINLY OUR NEBRASKA
FORECAST AREA. A FREEZE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
COUNTIES MOST LIKELY TO FREEZE AND LATER FORECASTS WILL
LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER A FROST ADVISORY FOR SEVERAL MORE
COUNTIES.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY ONWARDS, WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND PLEASANT TEMPERATURES PERSISTED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT HAS MOVED EAST
INTO PORTIONS OF MISSOURI AND IOWA. EXPECT THIS PLEASANT WEATHER
TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS, WITH A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT
IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
LOOKING UPSTREAM OF THE LOCAL AREA, THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
MONTANA AND WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRACK RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND VERY GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE REGION SATURDAY. WHILE
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT, MODELS HINT A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES COULD BE SQUEEZED OUT ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY IMPACTING AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY
92 ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. BY FAR, THE BIGGEST IMPACT OF
THE FRONT WILL BE THE SURGING NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL OVERTAKE
THE AREA DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. LATEST HRRR HAS WINDS
GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35-40KTS BY MID-MORNING...WITH A WINDY
AFTERNOON IN STORE FOR THE REGION.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THE DAY, WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY
EARLY EVENING, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS
SUGGESTING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RAPIDLY DROP OFF DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EVEN POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN AREAS THAT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE AREA OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. GIVEN THE INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF AT
LEAST WIDESPREAD FROST, WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH
FOR THE PARTS OF THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES, BUT FULLY RECOGNIZE A FROST ADVISORY WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FURTHER EAST OF THESE COUNTIES GIVEN THE
SET-UP.
AS WINDS THEN SHIFT AND BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
A WARMER AIRMASS TO QUICKLY ADVECT BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA,
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. YET ANOTHER MAINLY DRY "COLD FRONT" IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA AGAIN ON MONDAY, BUT AGAIN, THE MAIN
IMPACT LOCALLY WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE AS
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TO START THE WORK WEEK. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK CONTINUES TO
LOOK DRY WITH A SEE-SAW OF TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AROUND
CLIMATOLOGY AS WEST NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES ALOFT AND THE NEXT
UPPER LEVEL LOW SLIDES MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 720 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
ALTHOUGH AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF LOW-END VFR CEILING IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, CONFIDENCE IS OVERALL-HIGH IN VFR
CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD, WITH BY FAR THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING MODERATELY-STRONG NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS FROM LATE
SATURDAY MORNING ONWARD (GUSTS AT LEAST 30-35KT). ALTHOUGH
FAIRLY UNLIKELY, A FEW ROGUE SPRINKLES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM
MID-MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY (TOO LOW OF
LIKELIHOOD/LOW IMPACT TO INCLUDE IN TAFS).
- CEILING DETAILS:
ALTHOUGH STARTING OFF PRISTINELY CLEAR THIS EVENING, MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE ON A STEADY INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THE MAIN WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LOWER-END
VFR CLOUDS WILL FOCUS 18-22Z...DURING WHICH TIME A CEILING
PERHAPS AS LOW AS AROUND 4,500 K FT. COULD MATERIALIZE.
- WIND DETAILS:
LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES (AROUND 6KT OR LESS) WILL
PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY, SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE AS DIRECTION BECOMES MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT...WITH AN ABRUPT INCREASE IN SPEEDS 16-18Z
PREVAILING AT LEAST 20-25KT/GUSTS AT LEAST 30-35KT. THESE
MODERATELY-STRONG WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY VERY LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FREEZE WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
NEZ039-040-046-060-061-072-073-082.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
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