450
FXUS63 KGID 080549
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1249 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH, THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY MORNING (MAINLY
BETWEEN 7AM AND 2PM FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80 OR EAST OF
HWY-281) REMAINS IN PLACE.
- THE STRONGEST STORMS (IF THEY MATERIALIZE) WOULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WITH THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS NEAR 60MPH.
- A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE
EVENING TO NIGHTTIME HOURS SATURDAY. EVEN BETTER STORM
CHANCES COME NEXT WEEK (DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY-
THURSDAY).
- TEMPERATURES WILL RAISE UP TO THE 90S TO 104 DEGREES SUNDAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ACROSS A MAJORITY
OF THE AREA. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONCENTRATED
TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND EAST.
- HIGHS NEXT WEEK (AFTER SUNDAY) WILL LOOK TO DECREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING THE 70S AGAIN
BY THURSDAY (40-80% CHANCE, GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI AUG 7 2026
GENERAL OVERVIEW...
BROAD RIDGING OUT WEST WITH TROUGHING TO THE EAST LEAVES THE AREA
UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY. ACROSS THE NEXT FEW DAYS, THE UPPER-
LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE EXPECTED TO RETURN BACK TO A MORE ZONAL (LESS
AMPLIFIED) FLOW WITH OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE POSSIBLE TO
PASS THROUGH OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THOUGH A FEW SCATTERED STORMS MAY
POP UP HERE AND THERE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE BY A FEW DEGREES
EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE TRENDING THE OTHER DIRECTION FOR A
MAJORITY OF NEXT WEEK.
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
THOUGH SOME AREAS OF FOG CAN'T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS A FEW
LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH IF I-80 TONIGHT (20-50% CHANCE), THE COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF ANY FROG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD/INTENSE AS THIS PAST MORNING. THE LATEST HREF GUIDANCE
HAS 50% OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PROJECTING FOG WITH ONLY 20% OF ITS
MEMBERS SHOWING DENSE FOG. IN COMPARISON OF THE HREF GUIDANCE 24-
HOURS EARLIER (GUIDANCE FOR THIS PAST MORNING), 60% OF ITS MEMBERS
HAD FOG WITH 40% OF THEM DENSE. AS RESULT TO THE DECREASED MODEL
CONFIDENCE, WE SUSPECT THAT ANY FOG THAT DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP
WILL NOT BE AS DENSE OR WIDESPREAD AS FROM THIS PAST MORNING.
THE EVEN BIGGER QUESTION FOR SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW STORMS TO MATERIALIZE OUT OF THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS REGION.
CURRENT HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN IN AND OUT WITH THE
OVERALL COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS, LEADING TO LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE FOR OUR POPS (ONLY UP TO 10-30%). THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY BE CONCENTRATED NORTH OF I-80
AND EAST OF HWY-281 BETWEEN 7AM AND 2PM.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY FOR STORM COVERAGE, THE CONDITIONS WOULD
GENERALLY BE SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR ANY GIVEN
LOCATION THAT DOES SEE A THUNDERSTORM. AS A RESULT, THE SPC KEEPS A
MAJORITY OF THE AREA (ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PHILIPS,
SMITH AND JEWELL COUNTIES IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS) INCLUDED IN A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. CONDITIONALLY, SOME ELEVATED CAPE
(UP TO 3,000-4,000J/KG ABOVE 800MB) PAIRED WITH A NOCTURNAL LOW-
LEVEL JET (25-40KTS OF BULK SHEAR) SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE ENOUGH FOR
HELPING A FEW OF THESE STORMS BECOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE.
THOUGH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A FEW
OF THE TALER (GENERALLY STRONGER) STORMS, THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE
FOR GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS UP TO NEAR 60MPH.
BEYOND THE CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE MORNING, A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POP UP STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE EVENING OR
NIGHTTIME HOURS AS WELL. HIGHS FOR SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
CLIMB BACK TO AS HIGH AS THE UPPER 80S AND 90S FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA, THOUGH A FEW FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS LOCATIONS MAY REACH THE LOW 100S (20-50% CHANCES). THIS
WARM UP WILL CARRY ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
HELP ADVECT IN A WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS.
NEXT WEEK...
HIGHS PEAKING SUNDAY (90-104 DEGREES; WARMEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST)
WILL BE FOLLOWED A MULTI-DAY COOL DOWN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS WELL AS THE PRESENCE
OF INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE. NBM PROBABILITIES EVEN SHOW A 60-80%
CHANCE FOR HIGHS TO STAY BELOW 80 DEGREES THURSDAY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND A 40-60% CHANCE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THOUGH A
HEAT ADVISORY HAS NOT YET BEEN CONSIDERED FOR SUNDAY, HEAT INDICES
WILL BE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE 100 DEGREES ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE
AREA WITH A 30-70% OF HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING/EXCEEDING 105
DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES, A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE CONSIDERED.
BESIDES THE TEMPERATURES, A SLIGHTLY WETTER SIGNAL IS BEGINNING TO
APPEAR NEXT WEEK AS DAILY POPS RETURN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA STARTING
MONDAY NIGHT (20-30% CHANCE). IT IS TOO EARLY TO FULLY ANALYZE THE
NIGHTLY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THAT WILL BE MAINLY BASED AROUND THE
SPECIFIC TIMING FOR PASSING DISTURBANCES. THAT BEING SAID, SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE, A WARM/BUOYANT AIRMASS AND THE RETURN OF A NOCTURNAL LOW-
LEVEL JET, WOULD ALL CHECK THE BOXES NEEDED FOR SEVERE CONVECTION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT AUG 8 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
MAIN CAVEAT IS THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING,
MAINLY BETWEEN 14-20Z. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF KEAR AND
CLIPPING KGRI, HENCE THE INCLUSION OF THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES AT
KGRI AND NOT KEAR. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THESE STORMS, AS THE LATEST HRRR RUNS (3/4Z) BACK
OFF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ALL TOGETHER. IF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
PASS OVER THE TERMINALS, LOWER CEILINGS AND RAINFALL MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR CONDITIONS.
WITH THE POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA, CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT FOR THE BEGINNING
PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, BECOMING MORE SE BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15KTS THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 18-0Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...SCOTT
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