064
FXUS63 KGID 261801
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
101 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS WITH HIGHS
TODAY IN THE UPPER 70S.
- HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WIT
HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95 TO 105 DEGREES.
- HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING UNDER
OVERCAST SKIES. ALOFT A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN BROADLY ZONAL FLOW. PATCHY FOG CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA MAY SNEAK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS, BUT DENSE OR WIDESPREAD FOG APPEARS
UNLIKELY. SHOWERS/FOG WILL COME TO AN END BY THE MID-MORNING HOURS
AS THE DISTURBANCE DEPARTS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL BE SLOW
TO CLEAR TODAY LIMITING DAYTIME HEATING, THOUGH SUNSHINE RETURNING
BY THE MID AFTERNOON SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH THE UPPER 70S.
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT-SATURDAY MORNING. WITHIN THIS STRATUS DECK, DRIZZLE OR WEAK
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
LIGHT/MINIMAL. SIMILAR TO TODAY, LINGERING STRATUS MAY BE SLOW TO
CLEAR AND LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
(CURRENT HIGHS LOW 90S SOUTHWEST-LOW 80S NORTHEAST). BREEZY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, GUSTING 20-30MPH.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS TROUGHING
DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. HIGHS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SOAR INTO
THE 90S TO AROUND 100. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S COMBINED WITH
HIGHS RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT AROUND 105 DEGREES
(NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA). SHOULD THE FORECAST REMAIN ON TRACK
OR INCREASE SLIGHTLY, A HEADLINE MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS KEEPS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND BREEZY WINDS EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT, SCATTERED OFF AND ON SHOWERS
WITH VERY ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE, INCLUDING HIGH-RES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE
BULK OF ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT ROOKS COUNTY COULD BE CLIPPED BY
SOME STRONGER ACTIVITY THAT SLIDES SOUTHEAST OUT OF WESTERN
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL WATER CONCERNS
IF THAT DOES OCCUR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THAT SOLUTION.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS CAUSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO BE
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A LOW DEVELOPING IN
THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL CAUSE MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW TO THE REGION. THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS
BREEZY AT TIMES, STRONGER THAN WE'VE SEEN FOR A FEW DAYS.
LIKEWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER, WITH HIGHS QUICKLY
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S FOR SATURDAY AND THEN 90S
WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT 70+ DEWPOINTS WILL SURGE BACK
NORTH. THE HIGHEST DEWPOINT VALUES WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND INTO IOWA/MISSOURI, ETC. THAT BEING SAID, THIS WILL
BE QUITE A SHOCK TO THE SYSTEM AFTER THE COOLER PAST WEEK HAS
BEEN. HEAT INDEX VALUES EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES ARE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. CONTRASTINGLY, THE
DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT WILL BE VISIBLE WHERE THE DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO MIX OUT
AND TEMPS SURGE EVEN HIGHER...PRIMARILY WESTERN PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
AS JUNE ENDS AND JULY BEGINS NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
STAY IN THE 90S WHILE THE TROUGH PERSISTS OUT WEST WITH RIDGING
TO THE EAST OF THE PLAINS. DISTURBANCES EJECTING OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW IN THE WEST COULD CAUSE A FEW SPORADIC PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO IMPACT THE AREA NEXT WEEK, CONFIDENCE IN ANY DETAILS
IS LOW.
THERE IS AN INDICATION THAT THE PATTERN WILL BREAK DOWN TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND HOLIDAY WEEKEND BEGINS WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT FRI JUN 26 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
THE MVFR STRATUS DECK IS STARTING TO LIFT AND BREAK UP,
EVENTUALLY LIFTING TO VFR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
TONIGHT, CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 07 AND 10Z RESPECTIVELY. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW QUICKLY THE IFR CEILINGS MOVE IN. THIS
LOWER STRATUS LAYER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO LIKELY BETWEEN 10-14Z. HOWEVER, THERE
IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FOG AS WELL AS THE
VISIBILITY IMPACTS, AS STRONGER SURFACE WINDS WILL LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. WORST CASE SCENARIO, VISIBILITIES MAY REDUCE TO
UNDER 1 SM. THE MOST LIKELY CASE IS FOR MVFR/VFR VISIBILITIES TO
DEVELOP, AS MENTIONED IN THE TAF. HOWEVER, STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS MAY LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT, KEEPING VISIBILITIES VFR.
SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SE AROUND 10-12 KTS
THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, GUSTING UP TO 20 KTS BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BILLINGS WRIGHT
AVIATION...SCOTT
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