148
FXUS63 KGID 012014
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
314 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLUSTER OF STORMS REMAINS ON TRACK TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A MARGINAL TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH WIND GUSTS
60+ MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE HALF DOLLARS BOTH POSSIBLE.
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
IMPACT PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AT TIMES, ALTHOUGH TIMING
AND DETAILS REGARDING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN.
- AS SOILS CONTINUE TO SATURATE ACROSS THE REGION, COULD SEE
SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT ARE ABLE
TO DROP 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
- AFTER A SEASONABLY WARM START TO THE WEEK TODAY, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FLUCTUATE IN THE LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID-80S FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED JUST SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THIS MORNING AND WEAKENED AS THEY TRACKED
EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS SKIES CLEAR
BEHIND THE REMAINING CLOUD COVER, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND
INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH EYES THEN
TURNING WEST WHERE THE NEXT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
CURRENTLY STARTING TO INTENSIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
MODELS TODAY HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT DEVELOPING A FAIRLY
LARGE COMPLEX OF STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD TRACK EAST TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF
STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE GIVEN THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY AND NEARLY 40 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR...SHOULD REACH OUR
WESTERN AREAS BY AROUND 8 PM...AND LIKELY THE TRI-CITIES CLOSER
TO 10PM. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZED STORMS EMBEDDED
IN THIS CLUSTER, HAIL TO AROUND HALF DOLLAR SIZE WILL BE
POSSIBLE INITIALLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE MAIN
THREAT TRANSITIONING TO STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS LATER IN
THE EVENT. CURRENTLY, WE REMAIN IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER FOR WESTERN AREAS AND A MORE MARGINAL RISK FROM ROUGHLY
THE TRI-CITIES AND TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST, WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE TIMING AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
THIS EVENT.
BEHIND THE INITIAL SURGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT, SEVERAL
MODELS INDICATE REDEVELOPMENT ON ITS BACKSIDE...LIKELY FED BY
A SOUTHEASTERLY LLJ...WHICH COULD KEEP THINGS ACTIVE IN SPOTS
UNTIL AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY CLEAR BY
MIDDAY, HOWEVER, WITH ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON IN STORE
FOR THE LOCAL AREA. IN FACT, WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN AND THE LACK OF STRONG OR PERSISTENT RIDGING, MOST DAYS
OVER THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS SHOULD HAVE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LARGELY DRIVEN BY WEAK DISTURBANCES IN WESTERLY
FLOW AND PLENTY OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGION. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND LACK OF REALLY
STRONG SHEAR ON ANY PARTICULAR DAY, TRYING TO TIME SEVERE
CHANCES BEYOND THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DIFFICULT, ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE COURSE
OF THE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD
ALTHOUGH SOME PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ANY
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS...EXPECT THE MID LEVEL
CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE AREA TO THIN OUT AS IT PROGRESSES TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST WITH GENERALLY NORTHERLY WINDS EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING AND BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING. AFT ABOUT 02/04Z...EXPECT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SPREADING THE
CHANCE FOR SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE IT WILL NOT LIKELY
CONTINUOUSLY STORM OVERNIGHT, THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 10 HR
WINDOW WHERE SOME STORMS COULD IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL DUE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT MODELED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS DISTURBANCE. CIGS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY IMPROVE AFT 02/14Z...WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
NEAR 10 KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...ROSSI
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