534
FXUS63 KGID 072002
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
202 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (40-70%) WILL COME TUESDAY,
ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE MORE ON THE MINIMAL SIDE
OF THINGS (0-0.25"). THE BEST POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY LIE
TOWARDS FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH MONDAY (MAINLY THE 70S), BOUNCING
BETWEEN THE 50S, 60S AND LOW 70S FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
- NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN TO PORTIONS OF
THE AREA MOST AFTERNOONS NEXT WEEK. WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY DO
NOT APPEAR TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PROVOKE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY BECOME MORE HEIGHTENED WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS GUSTIER CONDITIONS LOOK SLIGHTLY
MORE POSSIBLE (GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30MPH).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM SATELLITE THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A POSITIVELY
TILTED AND A ELONGATED/STRETCHED TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. THIS AFTERNOON. THE NORTHEASTERN AND MORE PROGRESSIVE END TO TO
THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO PINCH OFF FROM THE SOUTHWEST BASE, FORMING A
CUT-OFF LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. THIS PROCESS WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME STABILIZATION ALOFT FROM ZONAL ORIENTED FLOW TAKING OVER FOR THE
START OF NEW WEEK. THIS PATTERN SHIFT SHOULD BAT OFF ANY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES UNTIL AT LEAST TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, HIGHER
PRESSURE WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS
LIGHT/STEADY (GUSTS <25MPH) WITH WIND DIRECTIONS GENERALLY STAYING
OUT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
UNDERNEATH SUCH CONDITIONS WILL BE ABLE TO RAISE UP TO THE 70S BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW AREAS SOUTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES WILL EVEN
HAVE A SHOT (50-80% CHANCE) OF REACHING 80 DEGREES.
THE WARMING CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN AS WELL
AS ALSO BEING TRANSPORTED IN FROM THE WEST-TO-SOUTHWELY DOWNSLOPING
FLOW, WILL KEEP AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 30%
AND TO AS LOW AS 10-15% ACROSS A FEW LOCATIONS OUT WEST. NEAR-
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL RETURN EACH AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY
A FEW WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE LIGHTER WINDS (GUSTS MAINLY
<25MPH) WILL KEEP CRITICAL CONDITIONS FROM BECOMING WIDESPREAD.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
A COLD FRONT PASSING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR HIGHS
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, THE AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHWEST CUTOFF LOW WILL
BE SCHEDULED TO RE-ENTER THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW, MERGING BACK IN WITH
A MIDWEEK TROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE MAY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE AREA'S
NEXT PRECIPITATION SYSTEM, THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
IMPACTFUL THIS WAVE WILL ACTUALLY BE TO THE LOCAL AREAS (SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA & NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS). AS OF NOW, OUR POPS
HIGHLIGHT A 40-70% GRADIENT THAT INCREASES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
MOST OF THE ACTION IS FAVORED TO STAY OUTSIDE OF OUR SOUTHEAST.
DESPITE THESE MEDIUM PRECIPITATION CHANCES, ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
WILL BE MORE MINOR SIDE (0-0.25"). SEVERAL AREAS MAY BE MISSED BY
PRECIPITATION ALTOGETHER.
BEYOND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY, A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN BEHIND WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO OSCILLATE BETWEEN THE 50S, 60S AND 70S THURSDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RETAINING PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS
WITH POTENTIALLY GUSTIER WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY
PROVOKE MORE WIDESPREAD NEAR-CTRITCAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
HIGH CONFIDENCE OF RETAINING VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN TONIGHT. WINDS AT THE SURFACE
CURRENTLY BLOW OUT OF THE NORTH AROUND 10-15KTS TODAY, THOUGH
DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEND TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF 40-45KT LLWS MAY BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 5-8Z TONIGHT AS THE AXIS
OF A LOW-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SPEEDS PAST THROUGH MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA. IN ALL, WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY
STAY BETWEEN THE 10-15KT RANGE WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH AS
20-25KTS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION
IS NOT EXPECTED.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...STUMP
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