644
FXUS63 KGID 280523
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1123 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 601 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021
THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. WHILE WINDS
WILL BE STEADY BEHIND A COLD FRONT, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE
INCREASED.
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021
INTERESTING DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TODAY AS WIDESPREAD FOG THIS
MORNING ACROSS KANSAS TRANSITIONED INTO WIDESPREAD STRATUS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
DOWN TO START THE DAY. THAT SAID...CONTINUE TO SEE RAPID CLEARING
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS STRATUS AND COULD STILL SEE A LATE
DAY SPIKE IN TEMPS. AS A RESULT...DID NOT ADJUST HIGH TEMPS
SIGNIFICANTLY...JUST THE DIURNAL CURVE SOME...AND KEPT THE RFW IN
TACK FOR ROOKS COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE CONDITIONS STILL
NOT QUITE REACHING NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AS OF THIS TIME. THIS
SHOULD CHANGE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...HOWEVER...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS ROOKS COUNTY...WHERE THE RAP CONTINUES TO INDICATE RH
VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 15 PERCENT FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT THE FOCUS TO SHIFT NORTH AS AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. INITIALLY INHERITED A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN FRINGES THIS
EVENING...BUT MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THIS SOME...WITH THE RAP
STILL INDICATING A WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST TO OUR
EAST AROUND SUNSET. GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AXIS POSITIONED JUST TO
OUR EAST...THINK IF ANY STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, THEY SHOULD
REMAIN PRIMARILY IN OAXS AREA. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIP ACROSS OUR NORTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSING COLD
FRONT...BUT ANY ACCUMULATION (LIQUID OR OTHERWISE) SHOULD BE
MINIMAL...WITH ONLY A HUNDREDTH OR TWO IN THE FORECAST...AND EVEN
THAT IS QUESTIONABLE.
FOR SUNDAY...EXPECT A COOLER DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SUNSHINE
RETURNING BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEINGS TO WORK ITS WAY ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA BY MONDAY AND A PAIR OF SYSTEMS NEXT WEEK
(TUESDAY/THURSDAY) ARE BOTH EXPECTED TO SLIDE PRIMARILY SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA. DESPITE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL TIMING
OF THESE NEXT TWO UPPER LOWS...THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM THE GFS/EC
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...AND ANTICIPATE A DRY WEEK ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH ONLY THE SMALLEST CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS WITH THE SECOND LOW THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT.
AS A RESULT...THE MILD TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL LIKELY BE MAIN STORY...WITH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY RUNNING 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021
THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE TERMINALS. THERE ARE SOME
MVFR CEILINGS TO THE NORTH THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...FAY
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...JCB
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