769  
FXUS63 KGID 082342  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
642 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- WE COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO OUR  
SOUTHWESTERN AREAS LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW ADDITIONAL  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ABOUT ANYWHERE, BUT  
FAVORING OUR NORTHEASTERN ZONES AFTER 1 AM INTO MID MORNING ON  
WEDNESDAY.  
 
- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY  
NIGHT, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  
 
- THURSDAY WILL BE A HOT DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WITH  
HIGHS IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100. HOWEVER, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY  
WILL BE MORE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER  
80S.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
TODAY AND TONIGHT...  
 
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS  
THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY  
EVENING AND TRACK EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS  
COULD REACH OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES AS THE STORMS DIMINISH AND DIE  
OUT LATE THIS EVENING TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL  
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM LATE TONIGHT AND CLOSER TO DAWN  
ON WEDNESDAY MAINLY FAVORING OUR NORTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA.  
THESE EARLY MORNING STORMS ARE HIT AND MISS ON THE MODELS AND  
WOULD LIKELY BE RATHER ISOLATED. HOWEVER, CAN NOT RULE OUT A  
STORM OR TWO BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY  
WEDNESDAY MORNING GIVEN MUCAPE VALUES OF OVER 3000 J/KG. DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK AT AROUND 20 KTS SO STORMS COULD BE  
MORE OF A PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORM RATHER THAN LONG LASTING  
STORMS. OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE  
RADAR FOR THIS POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  
 
WEDNESDAY...  
 
WE COULD SEE SOME OF THOSE LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE  
TONIGHT THROUGH PRIMARILY MID/LATE MORNING AND AGAIN FOCUSED  
MAINLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES (20-30% CHANCES). WE EXPECT A  
DRY AFTERNOON, BUT THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD  
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT (20-30%).  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE IMPRESSIVE WEDNESDAY EVENING AT  
35-40 KTS AND MLCAPE VALUES SHOULD BE OVER 2500 J/KG WITH A WEAK  
VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH. OVERALL THE FORCING IS RATHER WEAK AND  
MODELS ARE AGAIN HIT AND MISS ON GENERATING ANY THUNDERSTORMS,  
BUT IF THUNDERSTORM CAN DEVELOP IN THIS WEAKLY FORCED  
ENVIRONMENT, THEN THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN  
INSTABILITY/SHEAR PROFILE. THE SPC IS INDICATING A MARGINAL  
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS SEEMS VALID  
GIVEN THE PARAMETERS. THE MAIN HINDRANCE WILL BE QUESTIONS  
REGARDING COVERAGE AREA AND IF STORMS CAN INITIATE.  
 
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...  
 
THIS IS WHEN OUR MORE SUBSTANTIAL 500 MB TROUGH WILL PUSH  
THROUGH WITH PLENTY OF HEAT AND INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THIS  
SYSTEM. WE COULD BE PUSHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON THURSDAY  
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES SOUTH OF HWY 6 INTO KANSAS AROUND 100  
DEGREES. THIS IS OUR BEST CHANCE AT A MORE WIDESPREAD  
THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT AND THE SPC HAS ALREADY  
PLACED MUCH OF OUR AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK.  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...  
 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH  
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST AREAS. KANSAS  
ZONES WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON  
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT BEING CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO WARM BACK UP INTO THE UPPER 80S BY  
SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
 
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:  
 
TONIGHT: VFR EXPECTED. DRY/QUIET CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS  
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT. LATE TONIGHT, SOME CAMS CONTINUE TO  
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ISO-SCAT SHOWERS/STORMS, EITHER FROM  
MCV THAT ARRIVES FROM THE W, OR FROM A LAYER OF ISENTROPIC  
ASCENT IN THE 5-10K FT LAYER. MAINTAINED PROB30S AFTER 08-09Z AT  
BOTH SITES GIVEN CONTINUED HIGH UNCERTAINTY/LOW CONFIDENCE.  
 
WEDNESDAY: VFR EXPECTED. ISO-SCAT CONVECTION CHCS CONTINUE  
THROUGH AROUND MID-MORNING, THEN EXPECT SOME CLEARING AND STEADY  
SRLY WINDS 7-11KT FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF  
CONVECTION COULD MOVE IN FROM THE W LATE WED EVE, BUT PATTERN  
REMAINS ONE WHERE CHANCES ARE FREQUENT, BUT CONFIDENCE ON  
COVERAGE, TIMING, ETC ARE LOW UNTIL ACTIVITY ACTUALLY DEVELOPS.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...WESELY  
AVIATION...THIES  
 
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