059  
FXUS63 KGID 231137  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
637 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
   
..AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
TODAY:  
 
SO FAR THIS MORNING LOWS ARE ON TRACK TO BE IN THE 30S FOR  
MOST PLACES WITH A FEW 40S IN FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. A  
LOOK AT SATELLITE AS OF 430 AM SHOWS SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS  
ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH A FEW LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS INCHING THEIR  
WAY IN FROM THE EAST MAINLY OVER YORK AND AURORA. EXPECTING  
CONDITIONS TO BE MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH INCREASING POPS LATER THIS  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT (AFTER 00Z). TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER  
TODAY THANKS TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AND  
BREEZIER WINDS MAKING IT FEEL COLDER. WENT TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF  
GUIDANCE FOR TODAY AS THERE WAS A LARGE SPREAD...NEEDED TO BALANCE  
THE DIFFERENCE IN INFLUENCE BETWEEN MORE CLOUD COVER BUT ALSO  
VEERING WINDS/WAA WITH MORE MIXING TODAY. IF WE DO SEE MORE SUNSHINE  
THAN EXPECTED TODAY THEN TEMPS COULD EASILY OVERSHOOT THE FORECAST.  
 
ALOFT THE RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVERHEAD TODAY, BUT AT THE  
SAME TIME THE RIDGE IS BEING DAMPENED BY THE APPROACHING UPPER WAVE  
TO THE WEST ALONG WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROF TO THE EAST. THIS  
WILL RESULT IN MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TODAY BEFORE WE TRANSITION TO  
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH THE  
UPPER WAVE JUST ON OUR WESTERN DOOR STEP. WITH THIS WAVE A SFC LEE  
LOW IS FORMED ALONG THE SOUTHERN CO FRONT RANGE, THIS SFC LOW THEN  
SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED OVER THE OK  
PANHANDLE REGION ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS  
CENTRAL KS. FROM THERE THE LOW THEN PIVOTS AND TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD  
UP THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS. POPS FIRST SHOW UP IN THE EVENING  
HOURS AN THEN RAMP UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SUNDAY.  
 
REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT:  
 
SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA ALONG  
WITH A SLIGHT RISK CLIPPING PORTIONS OF MITCHELL, JEWELL, THAYER,  
AND FILLMORE COUNTIES. LATER THIS EVENING A LLJ SETS UP OVER  
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE EDGE OF THIS  
JET LOOKS TO CLIP OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT  
FROM THE LLJ ALONG WITH STRONG WAA MEANS WE COULD SEE MOISTENING  
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. WITHIN THIS REGION  
MUCAPE LOOKS TO BE MODEST AT AROUND 500-1,500 J/KG WITH PLENTY OF  
DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS MEANS A FEW ELEVATED STORMS WITH THE  
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO AROUND THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
INITIALLY BEFORE THE BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY SHIFT EAST  
OVERNIGHT WITH THE LLJ.  
 
SUNDAY:  
 
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON  
SUNDAY WITH POPS SHIFTING MORE NORTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS  
AND TAPERING OFF BY THE EVENING. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE  
SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN WITH THE PASSING OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THOUGH  
WE COULD STILL SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MORNING HOURS  
CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AS THE BETTER INSTABILITY  
MOVES EAST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL MO. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME  
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS WITH CAMS LARGELY ON THE  
DRIER SIDE. IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MOST PLACES LOOK TO RECEIVE  
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH WITH A FEW PLACES SEEING AROUND HALF AN  
INCH, BUT THIS IS LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT. SUNDAY WILL ALSO  
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S FOR THE  
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA AND IN THE 60S FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN  
HALF. OVERALL, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A RATHER CLOUDY, DREARY, AND DAMP  
DAY.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:  
 
RIDGING ALOFT TAKES OVER AGAIN ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER TROF IS  
POSITIONED OVER SOCAL ON MONDAY EVENING AND WORKING ITS WAY EAST.  
MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH COOLER FALL LIKE HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.  
THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE THEN DEEPENS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND  
EITHER BECOMES A CLOSED LOW BY WEDNESDAY 00Z (ECMWF) OR STAYS AS AN  
OPEN WAVE (GFS) AS IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES. PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO  
INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAINLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH  
POPS LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MODELS CURRENTLY ALSO DIFFER  
IN THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW BUT ARE BRINING ROUGHLY EQUAL PRECIP  
CHANCES REGARDLESS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE THREAT  
TUESDAY AND SPC HAS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA IN A 15% FOR THE  
DAY 4 OUTLOOK. THERE IS STILL A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE DUE TO  
THE MODEL DISCREPANCIES, BUT THERE DOES LOOK TO BE SOME STRONG  
MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME DECENT  
INSTABILITY UP THROUGH CENTRAL KS. THIS WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE  
COMING DAYS AND COULD CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN FUTURE FORECASTS. THE  
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE RATHER FALL LIKE WITH HIGHS  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY WITH MVFR AND THEN IFR  
CIGS IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUD  
COVER THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE  
EAST. THEN THIS EVENING PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP UP STARTING  
OFF WITH THUNDERSTORMS THEN BECOMING SHOWERS BY DAY TIME TOMORROW.  
THE INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES WILL COINCIDE WITH THE STEADY  
DECREASE IN CIGS.  
 
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY  
AVIATION...SHAWKEY  
 
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