482
FXUS63 KGID 150549
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1249 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (15-25%) FOR SCATTERED STORMS TO ENTER
A FEW NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. COVERAGE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. A MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM WITH
GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
- TEMPERATURES ARE SET TO PEAK FRIDAY & SATURDAY AFTERNOONS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S. A FEW KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA'S AREAS COULD TIP INTO THE LOWER TRIPLE DIGITS.
- A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM FOR ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA FRIDAY FROM 12-8PM AND FOR A FEW OF OUR
NEBRASKA AREAS SATURDAY FROM 12-8PM. HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD
RISE AS HIGH AS 105- 109 DEGREES IF A FEW MAINLY NORTHEASTERN
AREAS.
- STORM CHANCES (UP TO 30%) RETURN EACH NIGHT SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU AUG 14 2025
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THE HEAT IS ON FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT
IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE ISOLATED SPOTS TO JUST REACH THE LOW 100S
IN PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND A FEW FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA
AREAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 107 CONCENTRATED
MAINLY EAST TO NORTHEAST OF THE TRI-CITIES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
DEWPOINTS ALONG THESE NORTHEASTERN AREAS CREATE MORE INFLATED HEAT
INDEX VALUES. THESE INDICES CLOSING INTO 105 AND IN A FEW PLACES
EXCEEDING WARRANTS THE NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BETWEEN 12-8PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOWER DEWPOINTS IN
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD KEEP INDICES JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA, THOUGH TEMPERATES WILL STILL BE HOT (UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S). THOUGH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY, SLIGHTLY
LOWER HUMIDITY KEEP A FEW OF OUR SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA COUNTIES OUT
OF ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY IS LIMITED FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NUCKOLLS AND ADAMS
COUNTIES THEN FOLLOWING HIGHWAY 281 UP TO GREELEY COUNTY.
PRECIPITATION WISE, A SMALL (10-25%) CHANCE OF STORMS, POTENTIALLY A
FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ONES, COULD MOVE INTO A FEW PARTS OF
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INITIALIZE ACROSS THE FOOT OF THE ROCKIES AND THE HIGH PLAINS,
EVENTUALLY FOLLOWING THE FLOW INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND MAYBE EVEN
SOME OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS, WHATEVER MAY BE
LEFT OF THEM, WON'T REACH OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP UNTIL TONIGHT (10PM-
5AM). BOTH THE HRRR AND NAMNEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT ANY CONVECTION
THAT MAKES IT TO THE AREA SHOULD NOT BE LONG LIVED AS OR WILL BE IN
THE STAGES OF DECAYING, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND OR TWO CAN'T
BE FULLY RULED OUT. INSTABILITY IS PROJECTED TO WANE ACROSS THE
EVENING TO NIGHT, THOUGH EVEN THE HRRR KEEPS AROUND 1,500-2,5000J OF
MUCAPE (LESS THAN THE RAP AND NAMNEST). SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, LIMITING OUR CONFIDENCE FOR ANY BREAKOUT SEVERE
STORM TO BE ABLE TO KEEP ITS COMPOSURE FOR TOO LONG (ONLY 20-30KTS
OF BULK SHEAR).
ANY CLOUD REMNANTS FRIDAY MORNING FROM THESE STORMS MAY CHALLENGE
TEMPERATURES EARLY ON FRIDAY, THOUGH DIURNAL WARMING CRANKING UP IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH FAIRLY STRONG SOUTHERLIES (15-20 MPH, GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 25-30MPH) SHOULD HELP MIX IN THE HOT AIR FROM THE SOUTH. IN
ADDITION, THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES RISING ACROSS THE MID-TO-UPPER LAYERS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. THOUGH CHANCES FOR STORMS FRIDAY NIGHT REMAIN OUT OF
THE DISCUSSION, A RECENT EASTWARD SHIFT WITH PRECIPITATION BY THE
CAMS (STILL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA) MAY SUGGEST THAT A SIMILAR SETUP
COULD UNFOLD IF CHANCES GET SHOVED ANY FURTHER EASTWARD.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND...
A FEW SHORTWAVES BREAKING OUT OF THE UPSTREAM SIDE OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE COULD STIR UP A HANDFUL OF STORMS EACH NIGHT FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MOST COHERENT CHANCES CURRENTLY LIE
SUNDAY (UP TO 30% TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST) AND TUESDAY NIGHTS (UP TO
25% AREAWIDE). THERE IS TOO MUCH NOISE IN THE MODELS TO RULE OUT THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER, THOUGH MOST STORMS MAY NOT BECOME SEVERE.
THE NIGHT TO NIGHT VARIATION OF STORM PLACEMENT AND PRECIPITATION
TIMING WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE PREVIOUS DAYS OUTCOME,
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED FOR NOW (NO GREATER THAN 30%).
CHANCES AND ANY STORM ASSOCIATED HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
REFINED IN TIME. HIGHS, MEANWHILE, WILL BACK OFF A FEW DEGREES EARLY
NEXT WEEK, RETURNING TO THE 80S TO LOW 90S BY WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY COULD BREAK THE SOUTHERLIES APART TUESDAY, WITH SLIGHTLY
WEAKER AND MORE VARIABLE WINDS FOLLOWING.
SYNOPTICALLY, THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK, RETROGRADING WEST IN TIME FROM THE LACK OF A PREDOMINANT
DOWNSTREAM MOMENTUM TRANSFER/FLUX. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS A
PROGRESSIVE SOUTHWARDS DIVING TROUGH FROM UP NORTH TO BREAK UP THIS
RIDGE NEAR THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OR INTENSITY OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THIS TROUGH ENDS UP, TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES COULD BE SHAKEN UP A BIT FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT FRI AUG 15 2025
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
ANY TSRA ACTIVITY TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND PASS NORTH OF THE SITES LATER
THIS MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SPILL ACROSS
THE TERMINALS BY DAYBREAK, WITH MOST LLWS THROUGH 13Z EXPECTED
TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. THIS LLWS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
DAYBREAK...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS...GUSTING TO NEAR 20
KTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS WINDS THEN SUBSIDE
EARLY FRIDAY EVENING, LLWS WILL AGAIN BECOME POSSIBLE AFT ABOUT
16/03Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR NEZ040-041-
047>049-062>064-075>077-086-087.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...ROSSI
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