938
FXUS63 KGID 260822
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
322 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SHOWERS (AND A FEW WEAK T-STORMS) CONTINUE TODAY.
ACTIVITY CLEARS WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING.
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR SPOTTY SHOWERS AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED UNTIL FRIDAY.
- THE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR HALLOWEEN HAS TRENDED LOWER COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
SO FAR, THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED ALONG A CORRIDOR
STRETCHING FROM NEAR RED CLOUD TO HASTINGS TO CENTRAL
CITY...WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER EAST THAN WAS INITIALLY
EXPECTED. RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN OVER OUR WESTERN
AREAS THIS MORNING, AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MORE
SPARSE/LIGHT IN OUR SOUTHEAST.
WE WILL START TO SEE SOME BREAKS AS DRIER AIR ALOFT ARRIVES
FROM THE SOUTH. COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AND MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE. THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER (100-200J/KG), BUT NOT
NEARLY ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING STRONG/SEVERE. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
END FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY IN THE 5PM TO 1AM RANGE.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.10-0.50" IN MOST
LOCATIONS.
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S TONIGHT, BUT LINGERING
CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE AREA ABOVE
FREEZING. NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS (CAMBRIDGE, LEXINGTON, ORD,
GREELEY) ARE MOST FAVORED TO SEE NEAR-FREEZING TEMPS BY TUESDAY
MORNING.
LINGERING CLOUDS WILL KEEP TUESDAY ON THE COOLER SIDE...BUT
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR LATE
OCTOBER. MODELS STILL HINT AT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH AN UPPER
SHORTWAVE TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT MANY AREAS
WILL LIKELY MISS OUT ON THIS.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND
THE NEXT MEANINGFUL CHANCE FOR RAIN ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED IN THE KEY MESSAGES, HALLOWEEN IS LOOKING
LESS RAINY COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. THE LATEST NBM SHOWS A
30-40% CHANCE FOR RAIN DURING THE DAYTIME, WHILE 24 HOURS AGO IT
WAS CLOSER TO 50-70%.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER MUCH OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
EXTENDS EASTWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. THIS HAS
BROUGHT AN INCREASE IN UPPER LIFT OVER THE REGION WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN RAIN SHOWERS APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. WINDS
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
ARE MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 70S. THE RAIN
SHOWERS AND MAYBE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. SOME UPPER
30S MAY OCCUR ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF VALLEY COUNTY.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY WITH WINDS
BEGINNING TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE 50S TO THE 70S ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO THE TIMING AND POSITIONING OF THE COLD FRONT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY
EVENING. RAIN WILL BE COMING TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT. WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM (AROUND 1 TO NEAR 1.40
INCHES). LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AS
LOW AS THE UPPER 20S TO THE LOW 50S.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE AREA ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOLER (HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 50S TO LOW
70S). LIGHT RAIN MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT (15% TO 30% CHANCE) WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 60S AND 70S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE (UP TO AROUND 60%) ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER
LIFT INCREASES OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S
ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT MON OCT 26 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
SHOWERS AND IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNRISE ON MONDAY. AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN THE BREAKS BETWEEN SHOWERS.
SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BREAK UP A BIT AFTER SUNRISE, WITH
ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT AROUND MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS IMPROVE AS SHOWERS DEPART THE AREA LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...MANGELS
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...MANGELS
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