006
FXUS63 KGID 291744
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1244 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE 90S TO LOW 100S TODAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 90S TO 100S. A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM FOR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
- ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IF STORMS FORM THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL.
- HOT AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S.
- OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY, PRIMARILY
DURING THE EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
IT'S A WARM MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, AROUND THEIR CLIMATOLOGICAL
DAILY "AVERAGE" TEMPERATURE (AVERAGE OF THE HIGH AND LOW). THESE
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE PROVIDING LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE HEAT OF
SUNDAY. ALOFT THE AREA IS UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS TROUGHING SITS
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. UNDER THIS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HIGHS TODAY SOAR
INTO THE 90S TO LOW 100S. DEWPOINTS TODAY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
(WEST) TO AROUND 70 DEGREES MAINLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 81. HOT
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 90S TO 100S ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
BE ACROSS FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (ALONG/EAST OF A LINE
FROM BELOIT-OSCEOLA). A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS UNTIL 9PM.
FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FRONT WILL STRETCH SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. CAPPING ALOFT AND
OVERALL WEAK FORCING SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.
STILL, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. IF STORMS DO FORM, CAPE VALUES OF
3000-4000 J/KG COMBINED WITH 30-40KTS OF SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT STRONG-
SEVERE STORMS. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS WOULD BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. AFTER SUNSET, THE STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET COULD ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED-
ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THESE STORMS
LIKEWISE WOULD CARRY A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL. STORM CHANCES WOULD EXIT THE AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
(2-3AM).
TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST. STILL, TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT AND HUMID ACROSS THE
AREA WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL TOP
OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES, UNPLEASANT BUT SHY OF H
EAT HEADLINE CRITERIA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY
EVENING AS STORMS DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KS/EASTERN CO AND MOVE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CAPE AND SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT
THESE STORMS BEING STRONG-SEVERE.
OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN
THE 90S ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. OFF AND ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE, PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THESE
STORMS LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS, STORMS/CLOUD COVERAGE COULD
RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO
IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WARM AND HUMID AIR HAS MADE ITS PUSH INTO THE AREA TODAY FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO
LOW 100S TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S HAVE HELPED
INFLATE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AS HIGH AS 100-107 ACROSS FAR EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA (PLACES WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND UNDER THE
HEAT ADVISORY). IN TERMS OF HEAT RELIEF TONIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE TRI-CITIES, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S (WARMEST LOWS ACROSS A FEW KANSAS
LOCATIONS OR NEBRASKA AREAS NEAR AND EAST OF HWY-81).
THE MAIN CHANGE THIS FORECAST CYCLE HAS BEEN THE DECISION TO LOCALLY
EXTEND THE FURTHEST EASTERN ROW OF COUNTIES WITHIN TODAY'S HEAT
ADVISORY (MITCHELL TO CLAY TO POLK COUNTIES) UNTIL 9PM MONDAY. THIS
DECISION COMES AS HEAT INDICES MAY ONCE AGAIN NEAR/EXCEEDED 105
DEGREES MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR THESE LOCATIONS WITH LIMITED OVERNIGHT
HEAT RELIEF EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE LATEST FORECAST
NOW HIGHLIGHTS SIMILAR TEMPERATURES RETURNING (POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR
TWO LOWER THAN TODAY) WITH LINGERING MOISTURE CONTENT (UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S DEWPOINTS) THAT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FAIRLY SIMILAR ON
MONDAY. THE ONE SAVING GRACE THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME HEAT RELIEF MAY
COME FROM THE PRESENCE OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OR EVEN A FEW
CLOUDS BUILDING IN DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON HOURS.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK NEAR 20-25MPH WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-35+. THESE BREEZY CONDITION SHOULD STICK AROUND
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS LINGERING INTO THE DAY MONDAY
WILL LATER SETTLE FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,
HOWEVER, MAY STILL RETAIN PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS (UP TO 25-35MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE).
THANKFULLY, THE AREAS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE GREATEST HEAT AND
HUMIDITY IMPACTS WILL ALSO BE SOME OF THE SAME AREAS THAT LIKELY
RECEIVE THESE GUSTY WINDS OR EVEN SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVERAGE
LATER ON.
CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE STORM POTENTIAL FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON TO
NIGHT HAS BEGAN TO NARROW SOME. A FEW STORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE, COULD FORM AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FROM WEST
TO EAST. THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD POSSIBLY FIRE OFF ANYWHERE ALONG
THIS FRONT (THE NAMNEST MODEL IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH STORM COVERAGE
THAN SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS), THE GENERAL CONSCIENCES PLACES THE
BETTER STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS PRIMARILY THE CENTRAL (TRI-CITRIES
AREA) AS WELL AS EASTERN TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (LOCATIONS
WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT). GIVEN THE HOT
TEMPERATURES, MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 2,000-4,000J/KG WOULD BE
AVAILABLE FOR STORMS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF AS WELL AS SOME 35-55KTS
OF BULK SHEAR IN REGARDS TO INCREASED SUPPORT FROM THE MID-TO-UPPER
LEVEL JET. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
MOST PLACES (BESIDES A FEW WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA) WITH
THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT MAINLY FALLING BETWEEN 5PM AND 3AM MONDAY
NIGHT. THE MAIN SEVERE HAZARD WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE HAIL THREAT WILL NOT BE
AS SIGNIFICANT.
TAKING A STEP BACK TO OBSERVE THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT, WE
OBSERVE A NORTHERN ROCKIES CENTER TROUGH OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST
WITH A SOUTHEAST U.S. RIDGE RESTING SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THESE
TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP THE MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL JET NEARBY (JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE LOCAL AREA) FOR NOW. THIS WAVE PATTERN WILL
SOON LOOK TO RESEMBLE A WETTER SIGNAL WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES, EMBEDDED WITHIN THE JET, POSSIBLE TO POP OUT OF
THE FLOW. THESE OFF-AND-ON DISTURBANCES COULD STIR UP A FEW
SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE WEEK NOW FEATURES AT LEAST MINOR POPS ACROSS SOME
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EVERY AFTERNOON TO NIGHT. BESIDES
THE OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S EACH DAY. LATER
ON IN THE WEEK (FRIDAY AND SATURDAY) A FEW SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
AND KANSAS LOCATIONS MAY SEE HIGHS NEAR THE TIPPLE DIGITS ONCE
MORE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE (UP TO A 50% CHANCE) FROM
AROUND 01Z TO 04Z. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED FROM AROUND 03Z TO
08Z. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY (UP TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS) THIS
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AND WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AROUND 12Z.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ049-064-076-
077-086-087.
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ007-019.
UPDATE...DAVIS
DISCUSSION...STUMP
AVIATION...SCHULDT
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