254
FXUS63 KGID 251809
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1209 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRINKLES, LIGHT RAIN, AND/OR SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE
(LESS THAN 20% CHANCE) OVERNIGHT.
- RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE (UP TO 50% CHANCE) THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP (10% TO 20%
CHANCE).
- NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (MAINLY
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE TRI-CITIES).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 207 AM CST WED FEB 25 2026
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS. THERE HASN'T BEEN HARDLY ANY PRECIPITATION REPORTED SO FAR
AT ANY OF THE METAR SITES BUT SOME SPRINKLES AND/OR FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE (LESS THAN 20% CHANCE) AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES OVERHEAD.
SOME OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER AFTER SUNRISE. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE (15% TO NEAR 40% CHANCE) BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
(10% TO 20% CHANCE) THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH HIGHER LAPSE
RATES PRESENT. CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE (UP TO 50%
CHANCE) THIS EVENING. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN REGARDS TO
TIMING OF THE RAIN SHOWERS. SOME SHOW THE RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AROUND MID AFTERNOON WHILE OTHERS SHOW THE RAIN MOVING IN
DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING,
SOME OF THE RAIN SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO THE MID
20S TO THE LOW/MID 30S. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL GET DOWN INTO
THE LOW/MID 20S TO MID 30S. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES (AROUND 25%) AND HIGHER
WIND GUSTS (AROUND 20 TO NEAR 30 MPH).
THERE ARE NOT ANY BIG CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
FAST WNW/NW MID-UPPER FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY,
WITH A STEADY STREAM OF COPIOUS MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
STREAMING THROUGH. DESPITE THIS, AIR TEMPS HAVE WARMED NICELY
INTO THE 50S-60S, THOUGH THE "FEELS LIKE" IS DEFINITELY LOWER
DUE TO BRISK WIND. HAD A BIT MORE OVERLAP OF THE WARMTH AND WIND
THAT W/SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA REACHED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS, BUT NOT EXPECTING THIS TO BE AN ISSUE ANYMORE TODAY
GIVEN SOME LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND A WEAK FRONT AND
GENERALLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS. EXPECT QUIET CONDITIONS
TONIGHT - WITH ANY LIGHT RETURNS ON RADAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
THICK MID-HIGH CLOUDS BEING REPRESENTATIVE OF VIRGA THANKS TO
AFOREMENTIONED DRY LOW LEVELS.
LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN IN GENERAL MILD WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEK, LOCKED IN SOMEWHAT OF A PERSISTENT TRANSITION ZONE
BETWEEN MUCH COOLER 20S-40S TO THE N/NE AND MUCH WARMER 60S-70S
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF E CO AND W KS. A WEAK DISTURBANCE RIDING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MODEST CHANCES
(UP TO 40-50% PEAK CHANCES) FOR SCATTERED PRECIP BEGINNING WED
AFTN AND PERSISTING INTO WED NIGHT. EXPECT MOST OF THIS TO BE
LIQUID, THOUGH CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME MINOR WET SNOW
OVER THE FAR N/NE INITIALLY. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES
OF THUNDER - AS EVIDENT BY INCLUSION OF GENERAL THUNDER IN SPC
DAY 2 OUTLOOK. FELT THIS WAS STILL TOO MINOR TO FORCE INCLUSION
IN THE BUILDER AS MOST WILL NOT SEE IT. UNFORTUNATELY, AS WE
REALLY NEED THE MOISTURE, PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
LIGHT AT ONLY AROUND TENTH OF AN INCH, OR LESS.
FORECAST REMAINS DRY OTHERWISE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SIMILAR TO TODAY, WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
A RELATIVELY NARROW AND/OR BRIEF WINDOW FOR TANKING RHS AMIDST
MODERATELY BREEZY AND VEERING SW TO WNW WINDS. THIS WOULD BE
MAINLY W OF HWY 183 AND PARTICULARLY CLOSE IN GOSPER AND FURNAS
COUNTIES, MAINLY IN THE 21Z-00Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONTINUE
MENTION IN HWO AND FOREGO FORMAL HEADLINES, FOR NOW. WARMEST DAY
OF THE WEEK WILL BE FRIDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S, BUT WINDS LOOK TO BE QUITE WEAK. SO A FANTASTIC END
TO THE LAST FULL WORK WEEK IN FEBRUARY AND A SOLID OPPORTUNITY
TO ENJOY SOME NICE WEATHER.
CONDITIONS TURN MUCH COOLER (THOUGH REALLY JUST BACK DOWN TO
AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL) OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MODELS STILL HINT AT SOME OFF AND ON LIGHT PRECIP
POTENTIAL (OFF AND ON CHANCES AROUND 20-40%), POSSIBLY OF THE
WINTRY AND/OR MIX VARIETY, OFF AND ON SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH THAT SAID, ENSEMBLES KEEP AMOUNTS ON THE LOWER SIDE OF
THINGS, AND NOTHING AT THIS TIME SCREAMS SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS AND/OR IMPACTS. IF THERE ARE TO BE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS, LATEST EPS FAVORS MON NIGHT INTO TUE THE MOST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
OVERALL-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CEILING/VISIBILITY THROUGHOUT,
ALTHOUGH ANYTIME MAINLY 22-03Z A LOWER-VFR CEILING (DOWN TO
AROUND 4K FT.) COULD DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSAGE OF
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. SHOULD THESE SHOWERS MATERIALIZE, AT
LEAST BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY AND A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS (20+KT)
COULD ACCOMPANY THEM. BEYOND 03Z, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN A RETURN
TO VFR CONDITIONS/DRY WEATHER/CLEAR SKIES, ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A WARY EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST BRIEF/PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT NEAR KGRI FOR THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS
(SHOULD MAINLY FOCUS SLIGHTLY EAST OF KGRI FARTHER EAST). KEAR
APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT FOG SHOULDN'T BE AN ISSUE.
AS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR LOW-VFR CEILING/RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHOWERS, FELT THE
LIKELIHOOD OF OCCURRENCE WAS STILL A BIT TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY
TEMPO/PREVAILING GROUPS, SO HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 FOR NOW.
AS FOR WINDS (AND NOT ACCOUNTING FOR ANY ENHANCED GUSTINESS
FROM/NEAR PASSING SHOWERS 22-03Z), THEY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
"TAME" WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAINLY AT-OR-BELOW 11KT/GUSTS
MAINLY AT/UNDER 15KT. DIRECTION-WISE, BREEZES WILL SHIFT FROM
SOUTHERLY RIGHT AWAY THIS AFTERNOON...TO WESTERLY AND NORTHERLY
BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT/SHOWERS...THEN AGAIN WESTERLY LATE
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULDT
DISCUSSION...THIES
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page