235
FXUS63 KGID 231111
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
611 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019
QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH
CLEAR SKIES. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE CWA SITS UNDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING STARTS WORKING ITS WAY IN
FROM THE WEST...SET UP BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGGING ITS WAY SOUTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS THE REGION, THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PORTIONS
OF KS.
OVERALL, NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...STILL LOOKING
FOR DRY CONDITIONS THANKS TO THAT RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA.
SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN, THOUGH SOME TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL START
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THEN
SOUTHERLY AS THE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTS WORKING EAST OF
THE CWA AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON,
AND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED. AFTER HIGHS ON SUNDAY
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE A TOUCH WARMER,
WITH LOWER 80S FORECAST FOR MOST.
AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME UNCERTAIN REMAINS IN THE
09-15Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH PRECIPTIATION CHANCES. MODELS
HAVEN'T BEEN IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS PERIOD FOR A FEW
DAYS NOW, BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALOFT...AND A
FEW CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE AND
LIFT ALONG A 35-ISH KT LLJ TO AFFECT THE AREA. FORCING ISN'T
STRONG, BUT SOME MODELS SHOW IT BEING ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WE APPROACH DAWN. THE
FORECAST HAS CARRIED SMALL POPS FOR DAYS NOW...WITH THERE STILL
BEING AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR SOMETHING TO DEVELOP, KEPT THEM
GOING. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...AND WHAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD SLIDE QUICKLY OFF
TO THE EAST OR JUST DIMINISH ALTOGETHER WITH TIME.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT, AGAIN, MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO STAY DRY. MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF HWY 281. DURING THE DAY, MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/CANADA...PUSHING A SFC COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BY 18Z, THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE JUST STARTING
TO CREEP INTO FAR NNWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND EVEN BY 00Z
HASN'T MADE A WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS SOUTH. THE BETTER PUSH SOUTH
THROUGH THE CWA DOENS'T COME UNTIL THE LATER EVENING/OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH THE BETTER
FORCING SO FAR TO OUR NORTH, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST
HOW FAR SOUTH DOWN THE LINE THINGS GET GOING. MOST MODELS AT THIS
POINT EITHER KEEP THINGS JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA OR AFFECT AREAS
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 281...SO POPS ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE.
SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE CWA, INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS
ARE SUFFICIENT THAT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TO BE
STRONG/SEVERE. HAIL/WIND WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND IT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK-HITTING, WITH FOCUS MORE EAST OF THE CWA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXPECTING ANOTHER BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES,
WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REMAINS A DRY ONE. MODELS
SHOWING THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND A CUT OFF LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVING SET UP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS/NORTHERN
MEXICO. ANY PRECIPTIATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO FOCUS
SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS DIMINISH
(NOT THAT THEY'RE OVERLY STRONG TO BEGIN WITH) DURING THE
DAY...TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH THEN ON THURSDAY AND PICKING BACK
UP. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IS
LOOKING TO BRING A BREEZY/WINDY DAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF
15-25 MPH. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT
DROP FROM TUESDAY'S MID 80S, BUT WED/THURS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO
BE IN THE MID-UPPER 70S FOR MOST.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ACTIVE, BUT HARD TO HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE AT THIS POINT. MODELS ARE SHOWING
THAT SWRN CONUS CUT OFF LOW GETTING A KICK OUT THANKS TO ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST...TAKING A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY
PATH THROUGH THE PLAINS. SOME QUESTION WHETHER IT WILL HAVE MORE
OF AN IMPACT ON THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM KEEPS
PUSHING NORTHEAST...AND A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTER
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING BUILDS NORTH FROM THE
GULF COAST REGION INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
AT THIS POINT, POPS ARE IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT
PERIOD, THEN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT THE TIMING OF
ALL OF THIS TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. ANY IMPACT
FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW ITSELF (AS OPPOSED TO LEAD SHORTWAVES
EJECTED OUT AHEAD) AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WORK WEEK.
HIGHS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 70S FRI/SAT...POTENTIALLY REACHING
MORE 80S FOR SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BE
TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, THEN SOUTHERLY WITH TIME TODAY. SPEEDS
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH
GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ADP
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...ADP
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