248
FXUS63 KGID 200535
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1235 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. SOME OF THE FOG MAY BECOME DENSE.
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
- STORMS (SOME POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE) MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY AGAIN IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU AUG 20 2026
CURRENTLY THERE ARE STORMS IN WESTERN KANSAS WHICH ARE MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA BUT ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER OVERNIGHT (AROUND 4 OR
5 AM) ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE STORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE MOST LIKELY AREA BEING ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 281. SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BECOME DENSE (50% TO 70%
CHANCE). THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IF THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S.
ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR UP BY LATE
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING UP INTO THE LOW 80S TO LOW/MID 90S. STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON (TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA) AND MOVE INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THESE
STORMS MAY THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE STORMS FRIDAY
MORNING WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE (AROUND
30% CHANCE). ADDITIONAL STORMS (POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE) MAY
DEVELOP FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTED MUCH OF THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA FROM THE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE STORMS PRODUCED SMALL HAIL AND SEVERE
WIND GUSTS AT TIMES, AND EVENTUALLY EXITED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
MID-AFTERNOON. THE OUTFLOW FROM THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY RESIDES
NEAR THE NE/KS STATE LINE, AND COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
IF REALIZED, A STRONG TO MARGINALLY ELEVATED SEVERE STORM WILL
BE POSSIBLE, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT.
AFTER MIDNIGHT, AS SKIES REMAIN OR BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR, WINDS
REMAIN LIGHT, AND HIGH DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN PLACE, EXPECT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA. SREF PROBS INDICATE THERE IS ABOUT AN 80 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT (BELOW 3 MILES) WITH THE LAST COUPLE
OF RUNS OF THE HRRR NOW INDICATING AT LEAST SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG DEVELOPMENT. AS A RESULT, INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG TO THE
FORECAST WITH THE MENTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG BELOW 1 MILE TO THE
HWO THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER...A GENERALLY ACTIVE NORTHWESTELRY FLOW PATTERN WITH
MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING, AND A MARGINAL TO SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR THE LOCAL AREA BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EVENINGS/NIGHTS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
OUR WEST MAY THEN NUDGE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND, BRINGING SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, WITH PREDOMINANTLY MORE NORTHWESTELRY FLOW
RETURNING NEXT WEEK. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUING AND A
MODEST WARM UP POSSIBLE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT WED AUG 19 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
IFR-LIFR FOG EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER KGRI/KEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE-FEW HOURS WITH
VISIBILITY LOWERING TO IFR. AT LEAST A PERIOD OF LIFR CONDITIONS
IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITH VISIBILITIES IN FOG OF 1 MILE OR LESS.
THERE REMAINS ENOUGH SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY AT
KEAR) THAT SUB 1 MILE VISIBILITIES WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAF
THOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE. IT IS ALSO PLAUSIBLE THAT WIDESPREAD 1
MILE OR LESS FOG BECOMES PREVAILING, THOUGH THE TIMING OF THIS
IS UNCERTAIN BUT WOULD BE MOST LIKELY 10-14Z. FOG OVERALL LOOKS
TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. FOG CLEARS AROUND 15Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS
THEN FAVORED THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. AROUND 00Z,
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT KGRI/KEAR THOUGH
DETAILS ON TIMING OR STRENGTH UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
UPDATE...SCHULDT
DISCUSSION...ROSSI
AVIATION...DAVIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page