188  
FXUS63 KGID 142315  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
615 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
   
DISCUSSION
 
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
OVERALL FOCUS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM/SEVERE CHANCES TONIGHT.  
 
OVERALL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A SHALLOW PERTURBATION GIVING US  
SOME SPRINKLES THIS AFTERNOON. NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ANY  
THUNDER.  
 
LATER ON, WITH A SURFACE WARM FRONT NEAR OUR CWA SOUTHERN BORDER,  
AND MCS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST ALONG OR NEAR THE  
BOUNDARY AND MAKE IT INTO OUR SOUTHERN CWA BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS  
WILL PROBABLY BE OUR BEST CHANCE TO GET CLIPPED BY A WIND EVENT  
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND THIS WOULD LIKELY BE A GLANCE AS  
THE FOCUS OF THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE JUST  
SOUTH OF THE CWA. MUCAPE WILL BE LIMITED, SO WE WILL DEPEND ON THE  
MODERATE BULK SHEAR AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURRING  
JUST SOUTH OR VERY NEAR OUR SOUTHERN BORDER AT THE NOSE OF THE  
LOW-LEVEL JET.  
 
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY, AND ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION IS  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS, ONLY IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE FARTHER  
SOUTH THAN TONIGHT AS TONIGHT'S CONVECTION MAY HELP TO PUSH THE  
BOUNDARY A TAD FARTHER SOUTH FOR THE NEXT ROUND, LEAVING US LIKELY  
TOO FAR NORTH TO GET THE BRUNT OF SEVERE WEATHER.  
 
AN ACTIVE PATTERN PERSISTS WITH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE  
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AND TYPICAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR  
ARE EXPECTED. THE FORECAST WILL STILL READ WETTER THAN WHAT WILL  
ACTUALLY OCCUR AS THESE WILL ONLY BE CHANCES FOR EACH PERIOD, AND  
CERTAINLY NO GUARANTEE OF RAIN FOR EACH PERIOD.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT FRI MAY 14 2021  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  
LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL  
FOR LOWERING CEILINGS, AND HAVE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE  
FORECAST. AS FAR AS THE PRECIP CHANCES GO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. MODELS SHOW THE BRUNT OF ACTIVITY  
SLIDING ACROSS KS, WITH UNCERTAINTY IN THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY THE  
FURTHER NORTH YOU GO. AT THIS POINT ONLY HAVE A VC MENTION GOING.  
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD, MORE  
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, TURNING MORE  
EASTERLY AFTER SUNRISE SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...HEINLEIN  
AVIATION...ADP  
 
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