568  
FXUS63 KGID 211110  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
610 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
   
..AVIATION UPDATE
 
 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, AND WILL  
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY THROUGH THE END OF OCTOBER. SOUTHWEST  
FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND LOW-LEVELS WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE 70S  
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. WITH THE WESTERLY, DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF  
THE WINDS, I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME LOCATIONS JUST WEST OF  
THE FORECAST AREA APPROACH 80 DEGREES.  
 
REGARDING WINDS, RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING TO AROUND  
875-850MB AND WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OF 20-30KTS.  
THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST 850MB WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT  
EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AS A SURFACE AND LOW-LEVEL TROUGH  
APPROACHES THE AREA. AS SUCH, THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD ONCE  
AGAIN BE IN THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ALL THINGS  
CONSIDERED, I EXPECT GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH AT TIMES.  
 
UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A WEAK PERTURBATION IS EVIDENT AT 500MB.  
 
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE  
AREA, SWITCHING WINDS BACK TO THE NORTH, AND ALLOWING LOW TEMPS TO  
FALL INTO THE LOW 30S FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON MONDAY, BUT IT WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES  
COOLER THAN TODAY AS WE REMAIN IN NORTHERLY FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO MONDAY, BUT  
WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH  
APPROACHING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  
 
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THE SOUTHERLY  
FLOW WILL BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA FOR SCATTERED  
SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL START OUT OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND  
KANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT, GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA/KANSAS DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THANKS TO THE RAIN  
AND CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY PROBABLY WON'T GET HIGHER  
THAN THE UPPER 40S OR LOWER 50S.  
 
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WON'T BE HEAVY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GULF  
CONNECTION IS POOR AND THERE IS LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY TO WORK  
WITH. NEVERTHELESS, THIS IS A RATHER SLOW-MOVING SYSTEM SO SOME  
LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP 0.25-0.50" OF RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY  
MORNING.  
 
THE AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY DRY OUT ON THURSDAY, BUT WE WILL REMAIN  
IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SO WE WILL AT LEAST  
KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE AREA. TIMING OF ANY  
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS TOUGH TO NAIL DOWN AT THIS POINT, BUT  
ITS CERTAINLY NOT A "GUARANTEED" DRY PERIOD LIKE THE PAST COUPLE  
DAYS HAVE BEEN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.  
 
LLWS WILL END BY 15Z THIS MORNING AS SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS  
INCREASE...LIKELY GUSTING BETWEEN 20 AND 25KTS AT TIMES THROUGH  
EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS MAY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING.  
 
WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY AROUND 0Z, AND WILL BECOME  
NORTHERLY AFTER 06Z.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...MANGELS  
LONG TERM...MANGELS  
AVIATION...MANGELS  
 
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