108
FXUS63 KGID 082305
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
505 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
..AVIATION UPDATE
DISCUSSION
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
KEY MESSAGES:
* THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN TRIMMED A BIT IN THE SOUTH,
BUT STILL CONTINUES OTHER AREAS THROUGH 6 PM DUE TO CONTINUED
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SOME LOCALIZED AREAS DENSE FOG ALSO
RESULTING IN ICE DEPOSITION.
* THE WEEKEND LOOKS ESSENTIALLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES
* A LARGE WEATHER SYSTEM HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED FOR NEXT WEEK
AND IS STILL ON PACE TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER IN POTENTIALLY
VARIOUS WAYS.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW A DISTINCT INCREASE IN RETURNS JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE HASTINGS AREA, ALMOST BORDERING ON A LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FEEL (MOSTLY THIS EVENT HAS BEEN FREEZING DRIZZLE).
THIS SEEMS TO BE SOME RESPONSE TO ACTUAL UPPER WAVE STARTING TO
MOVE AND ONE FINAL ROUND OF LIFT PUSHING THOUGH. ACROSS THE
WESTERN/SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA, PATCHES OF DRIZZLE, FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG REMAIN. THE FOG TREND HAS IMPROVED
THOUGH AS A LIGHT WEST WIND AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TRIES TO CUT
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WITH ALL THIS, HAVE
CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE SOUTH WERE IT IS
ABOVE FREEZING AND ADDITIONAL FREEZING ISSUES ARE UNLIKELY. THE
ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE ELSEWHERE WITH SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AND ITS POSSIBLE THE NORTH/NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA
MAY NEED AN EXTENSION FOR A COUPLE HOURS UNTIL THE UPPER ENERGY
CAN GET THROUGH ABOUT 8 OR 9 PM AND PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY END.
WHILE WE DO HAVE A COUPLE OF SPOTS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG, THE FOG
TRENDS ARE MOVING TRANSITORY NOW IN THE SOUTH AND MOVING THROUGH.
THEREFORE HAVE HELD OFF ON DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND JUST INCLUDED
FOG IN THE FORECAST AND VIA A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
CLEARING WILL BE EASIEST TO COME BY IN THE SOUTH AS DRY AIR CUTS
ACROSS THAT AREA THIS EVENING, BUT AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80
MAY STRUGGLE CLEAR EVEN BY MORNING. THE CLOUDS GET ELONGATED IN
A MORE EAST/WEST FASHION WITH THIS SYSTEM THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
IT IS STILL COLD THOUGH AND THOSE AREAS ABOVE FREEZING NOW WILL
BOTTOM OUT BELOW FREEZING SO REFREEZING IN AREAS CURRENTLY ABOVE
FREEZING IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO THE 40S ON
FRIDAY SO THAT WILL MELT THE GLAZE OF ICE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.
THE WEEKEND IS PRETTY MILD WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S WILL BE COMMONPLACE
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHICH WILL BE 5-8 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. SATURDAY MAY BE THE NICE DAY THOUGH A TAD COOLER AS
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS PICK UP ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM.
BRIEFLY, THERE CONTINUES TO BE GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE GENERAL PATTERN
THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL ROLL INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUR
WEATHER FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH BOTH A WARM SIDE AND A COLD SIDE. ON
THE WARM SIDE, MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS LOOKING A BIT BETTER WITH TIME...CENTERED ON
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WORTH WATCHING VERY CLOSELY WITH THE
UNSEASONABLE WARM/MOISTURE AIR POTENTIAL. ON THE BACK, WE COULD
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND SNOW THOUGH THE BEST SNOW POTENTIAL CONTINUES
TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. LOTS STILL TO COME WITH
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. STAY TUNED.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CST THU DEC 8 2022
FREEZING DRIZZLE IS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA CURRENTLY.
VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CEILINGS WILL
ALSO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MVFR
TO IFR STRATUS MAY LINGER NEAR OR JUST TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
GRI UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>085.
KS...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005-
006.
DISCUSSION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AVIATION...MANGELS
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