087  
FXUS63 KGID 161144  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
644 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
THE PERSISTENT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS PUT OUT AN AN OUTFLOW  
THAT HAS COVERED MOST OF THE AREA, BUT ESPECIALLY AREAS ALONG AND  
NORTH OF I-80. WHILE I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST  
OTHER THAN KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS LONGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS, I  
AM CONCERNED ABOUT HOW THIS AIRMASS WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES  
TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SOMETHING TO WATCH.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 456 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
ANOTHER ROUND OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS ROLLING ACROSS CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THE MAJORITY OF THE  
CONVECTION IS STAYING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-80. THE MAJORITY OF THE  
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF I-80 UNTIL IT EXITS INTO  
EASTERN/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE  
REMAINING STORMS WILL BE STRONG, BUT OVERALL, THEY ARE WEAKENING  
AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG OR SEVERE.  
 
TODAY IS NOT CLEAR CUT...I THINK OVERALL IT WILL REMAIN DRY AFTER  
THIS MORNING ACTIVITY EXITS TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, A COUPLE OF  
MODELS NAMELY THE NAMNEST AND THE RAP CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME JUNKY  
STUFF AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HAVE TRENDED ON THE DRY SIDE  
AFTER 12Z. IF THE CONVECTION PERSISTS THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY  
AFTERNOON IT WILL OBVIOUSLY IMPACT SKY COVER AND POTENTIALLY HIGH  
TEMPS. DIDN'T GET CRAZY WITH TEMPS...STAYED FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE  
PAST FEW DAYS. OVERALL NEAR 90 INTO THE LOW 90S IN MUCH OF  
NEBRASKA AND IN THE MID 90S IN NC KANSAS. HEAT INDICES WILL BE  
NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 100.  
 
TONIGHT. AGAIN NOT CLEAR CUT ON WHAT WILL DEVELOP AND HOW IT WILL  
EVOLVE. LOOKS LIKE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE HIGH PLAINS AND  
TRACK EAST, BUT VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR IT WILL MAKE IT.  
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE S. DAKOTA/NEBRASKA STATE  
WHICH WILL BE A MUCH MORE LIKELY LOCATION FOR CONVECTION DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE THOUGH. A MARGINAL RISK  
IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF GIDS NEBRASKA COUNTIES. THINK THAT HAIL TO  
QUARTERS AND WINDS TO 60 ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY  
DEVELOP.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)  
ISSUED AT 456 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
HEAT:  
WHILE IT HAS BEEN HOT THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY  
COMBO IS EXPECTED TO MAKE CONDITIONS MORE MISERABLE. HIGHS ON  
WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH  
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 100S FROM THE NE/KS BORDER  
SOUTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES ARE  
EXPECTED BE IN THE LOW 70S NEAR THE FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO SAG  
SOUTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST AND HAVE  
THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES WITH MOST AREAS BETWEEN 100-107  
DEGREES. CAVEAT FOR WEDNESDAY IS CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORM  
POTENTIAL WITH THE FRONT. THIS COULD IMPACT HIGHS AND THUS OVERALL  
HEAT VALUES. SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.  
 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK SIMILAR WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER  
90S AND LOW 100S IN KANSAS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S.  
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WED-FRI. DID NOT  
HAVE CONFIDENCE TO CONVERT TO A WARNING OR ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.  
 
THUNDERSTORMS:  
A STRONGER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND PUSHING A FRONT INTO THE REGION BEFORE IT  
STALLS OUT. A NUMBER OF THE MODELS HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING  
ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND FEEL THE DAY 2 MARGINAL  
MATCHES UP WELL. UNSURE OF HOW FAR EAST THIS CONVECTION WILL GO AS  
THE UPPER FORCING LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST FAIRLY QUICKLY.  
 
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
THERE ARE SOME SCATTERED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND  
MONDAY AS A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. LOTS OF  
TIME FOR THIS TO CHANGE.  
 
COOL DOWN:  
THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THE EC AND GFS DIFFER ON THE  
STRENGTH OF AN UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT  
WILL BRING A BREAK TO THE HEAT. THEY BOTH BRING A FRONT THROUGH  
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH  
BOLDER WITH THE COOL DOWN VS. THE EC. SO THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON  
TEMPS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE FAIRLY  
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THAT THE RIDGE WILL  
RETROGRADE AND AMPLIFY OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE  
FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN  
KANSAS IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING  
IN AND VARIOUS SMALL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. SO IN THE  
END...WHILE THE TIMING OF THE BREAK IN HEAT IS NOT DEFINITIVE, IT  
DOES LOOK TO BE COMING BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND TO THE BEGINNING  
OF THE NEXT WORK-WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE JUL 16 2019  
 
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS IMPACTED THE WIND FIELD FOR THE DAY.  
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY  
AND SOUTH BY AFTERNOON, BUT THE ORIGINAL BREEZY CONDITIONS  
EXPECTED AT THE 06Z TAF ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A CHANCE  
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING KGRI THIS MORNING, BUT IT IS GOING TO  
BE OFF AND ON, SO HAVE LEFT VCTS AT THIS TIME. KEAR SKIRTED BY  
WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT, BUT HAS BEEN IMPACTED BY THE  
OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION, SO SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR  
THE WIND FIELD THERE.  
 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT  
HIGH ON HOW IT WILL EVOLVE AND HAVE NOT PUT THIS IN THE TAFS AT  
THIS TIME. DID, HOWEVER, INCLUDE LLWS FOR BOTH TERMINALS DURING  
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY  
EVENING FOR NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.  
 
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY  
EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...BILLINGS WRIGHT  
SHORT TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT  
LONG TERM...BILLINGS WRIGHT  
AVIATION...BILLINGS WRIGHT  
 
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