235  
FXUS63 KGID 231111  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
611 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019  
 
QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH  
CLEAR SKIES. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE CWA SITS UNDER  
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING STARTS WORKING ITS WAY IN  
FROM THE WEST...SET UP BETWEEN DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE  
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER SYSTEM DIGGING ITS WAY SOUTH ALONG  
THE WEST COAST. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
ACROSS THE REGION, THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PORTIONS  
OF KS.  
 
OVERALL, NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY...STILL LOOKING  
FOR DRY CONDITIONS THANKS TO THAT RIDGING MOVING INTO THE AREA.  
SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUN, THOUGH SOME TIME HEIGHTS SUGGEST THAT  
UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST WILL START  
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. THE LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THEN  
SOUTHERLY AS THE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE STARTS WORKING EAST OF  
THE CWA AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH  
PLAINS. SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON,  
AND GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED. AFTER HIGHS ON SUNDAY  
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S, HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO BE A TOUCH WARMER,  
WITH LOWER 80S FORECAST FOR MOST.  
 
AS WE GET INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING,  
MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. SOME UNCERTAIN REMAINS IN THE  
09-15Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME WITH PRECIPTIATION CHANCES. MODELS  
HAVEN'T BEEN IN THE BEST AGREEMENT ABOUT THIS PERIOD FOR A FEW  
DAYS NOW, BUT MORE ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALOFT...AND A  
FEW CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE AND  
LIFT ALONG A 35-ISH KT LLJ TO AFFECT THE AREA. FORCING ISN'T  
STRONG, BUT SOME MODELS SHOW IT BEING ENOUGH TO SPARK OFF A FEW  
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER AS WE APPROACH DAWN. THE  
FORECAST HAS CARRIED SMALL POPS FOR DAYS NOW...WITH THERE STILL  
BEING AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR SOMETHING TO DEVELOP, KEPT THEM  
GOING. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN  
THIRD OF THE CWA...AND WHAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD SLIDE QUICKLY OFF  
TO THE EAST OR JUST DIMINISH ALTOGETHER WITH TIME.  
 
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY  
NIGHT, AGAIN, MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO STAY DRY. MAIN QUESTION  
WILL BE FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF HWY 281. DURING THE DAY, MODELS  
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A BROAD UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE  
SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/CANADA...PUSHING A SFC COLD FRONT  
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. BY 18Z, THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE JUST STARTING  
TO CREEP INTO FAR NNWRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AND EVEN BY 00Z  
HASN'T MADE A WHOLE LOT OF PROGRESS SOUTH. THE BETTER PUSH SOUTH  
THROUGH THE CWA DOENS'T COME UNTIL THE LATER EVENING/OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS  
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH THE BETTER  
FORCING SO FAR TO OUR NORTH, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST  
HOW FAR SOUTH DOWN THE LINE THINGS GET GOING. MOST MODELS AT THIS  
POINT EITHER KEEP THINGS JUST OUTSIDE THE CWA OR AFFECT AREAS  
ALONG/EAST OF HWY 281...SO POPS ARE ONLY IN THE 20-30% RANGE.  
SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT THE CWA, INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS  
ARE SUFFICIENT THAT THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TO BE  
STRONG/SEVERE. HAIL/WIND WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...AND IT  
SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK-HITTING, WITH FOCUS MORE EAST OF THE CWA.  
 
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, EXPECTING ANOTHER BUMP UP IN TEMPERATURES,  
WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE MID 80S.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019  
 
THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY REMAINS A DRY ONE. MODELS  
SHOWING THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION, WITH  
BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND A CUT OFF LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAVING SET UP OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS/NORTHERN  
MEXICO. ANY PRECIPTIATION CHANCES AT THIS POINT LOOK TO FOCUS  
SOUTH OF THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS FAR  
SOUTHERN AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE PUSHING  
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WINDS DIMINISH  
(NOT THAT THEY'RE OVERLY STRONG TO BEGIN WITH) DURING THE  
DAY...TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH THEN ON THURSDAY AND PICKING BACK  
UP. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THURSDAY BETWEEN THE  
DEPARTING HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IS  
LOOKING TO BRING A BREEZY/WINDY DAY...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF  
15-25 MPH. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT  
DROP FROM TUESDAY'S MID 80S, BUT WED/THURS HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO  
BE IN THE MID-UPPER 70S FOR MOST.  
 
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND HAS  
THE POTENTIAL TO BE MORE ACTIVE, BUT HARD TO HAVE A WHOLE LOT OF  
CONFIDENCE IN HOW THINGS EVOLVE AT THIS POINT. MODELS ARE SHOWING  
THAT SWRN CONUS CUT OFF LOW GETTING A KICK OUT THANKS TO ANOTHER  
SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST...TAKING A EAST-NORTHEASTERLY  
PATH THROUGH THE PLAINS. SOME QUESTION WHETHER IT WILL HAVE MORE  
OF AN IMPACT ON THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM KEEPS  
PUSHING NORTHEAST...AND A MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTER  
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW  
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM AFFECTS THE WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGING BUILDS NORTH FROM THE  
GULF COAST REGION INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  
 
AT THIS POINT, POPS ARE IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT  
PERIOD, THEN DRY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT THE TIMING OF  
ALL OF THIS TO BE ADJUSTED AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK. ANY IMPACT  
FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW ITSELF (AS OPPOSED TO LEAD SHORTWAVES  
EJECTED OUT AHEAD) AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY  
NEXT WORK WEEK.  
 
HIGHS GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 70S FRI/SAT...POTENTIALLY REACHING  
MORE 80S FOR SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019  
 
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS  
TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THIS MORNING, BUT WILL BE  
TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, THEN SOUTHERLY WITH TIME TODAY. SPEEDS  
WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE...SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 15-20 MPH WITH  
GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ADP  
LONG TERM...ADP  
AVIATION...ADP  
 
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