938
FXUS63 KGID 270149
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
849 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
..UPDATES TO KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM AND AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA (CWA) IS NOW UNDER AN EXTREME HEAT
WARNING RIGHT ON THROUGH UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY (THIS REFLECTS AN
UPGRADE/REPLACEMENT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES...OUR KANSAS COUNTIES WERE ALREADY/EARLIER UPGRADED
TO A WARNING VALID THROUGH MONDAY).
- ALTHOUGH ESPECIALLY WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR
NEBRASKA CWA MIGHT FALL TO "OFFICIALLY" REACH THE 110+ WARNING
CRITERIA ON MONDAY, FORECAST VALUES ARE DEEMED "PLENTY CLOSE
ENOUGH" TO JUSTIFY THIS UPGRADE.
- BEYOND MONDAY: ALTHOUGH NOT TRULY "COOL" BY ANY MEANS, MORE
MANAGEABLE/TYPICAL HIGH TEMPS MAINLY UPPER 80S-MID 90S LOOK
TO PREVAIL STARTING TUESDAY...ENDING THE NEED FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES.
- TURNING TO CONVECTIVE CHANCES: SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL-
TO- SLIGHT RISK FOR A ROGUE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM YET THIS
EVENING FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA, BUT IT'S BECOMING INCREASINGLY
APPARENT PER RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS THAT CAPPING/VERY WARM
AIR ALOFT IS "WINNING THE BATTLE) AND ODDS INCREASINGLY-TILT
TOWARD US STAYING STORM- FREE (TOO SOON TO GUARANTEE JUST YET
THOUGH).
- THERE WILL BE A SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS MONDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT...A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY-SEVERE (ESPECIALLY IN OUR
FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE SPC HIGHLIGHTS A MARGINAL RISK).
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
-- REGARDING THE UPGRADE FROM HEAT ADVISORY TO EXTREME HEAT
WARNING (VALID THROUGH 10 PM MONDAY) FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST
AREA (CWA):
- PRECEDING DAY SHIFT HAD ALREADY UPGRADED OUR KS COUNTIES TO A
WARNING EXTENDING THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER, AFTER MAKING SOME
FORECAST UPDATES TO TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS (AND RESULTANT HEAT
INDEX) FOR MONDAY, IT WAS DECIDED TO "PLAY IT SAFE/KEEP IT
SIMPLE" AND ALSO UPGRADE ALL OF OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
- ALTHOUGH MOST AREAS SHOULDN'T SEE HEAT INDEX GET QUITE AS BAD
AS SATURDAY-SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR CWA
IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO SEE WIDESPREAD PEAK HEAT INDEX AROUND 110
OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. MEANWHILE, ALTHOUGH PARTS OF ESPECIALLY
OUR FAR NORTHERN/WEST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA CWA (MAINLY COUNTIES
BOTH ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 136) MIGHT
FAIL TO "OFFICIALLY" REACH THE 110+ HEAT INDEX WARNING
CRITERIA, WE ARE FORECASTING WIDESPREAD VALUES OF AT LEAST
105-109 IN THOSE "WEAKER" AREAS...WHICH WAS DEEMED "PLENTY
CLOSE ENOUGH" TO JUSTIFY WARNING EXPANSION...ESPECIALLY WITH
MONDAY BEING THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF DANGEROUS HEAT.
- EVEN IF ACTUAL TEMPERATURES END UP SLIGHTLY "COOLER" ON MONDAY
ACROSS ESPECIALLY OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES DUE TO ENDING UP
BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT AND MORE EASTERLY BREEZES, OFTEN WE
SEE DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY POOL AND BECOME PARTICULARLY OPPRESSIVE
(OFTEN HIGHER THAN FORECAST) JUST NORTH OF THESE
FRONTS...ESSENTIALLY "COMPENSATING" FOR LOWER TEMPERATURES TO
DRIVE STILL-OPPRESSIVE HEAT INDEX.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
CONDITIONS ARE HEATING UP OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND
TRIPLE DIGITS AND HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 106 DEGREES
AND AROUND 120 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
HEAT UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO AROUND
105 DEGREES. A FEW ISOLATED AREAS, MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281, MAY
EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 115 AND 120 DEGREES. THE WHOLE
AREA IS IN AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A
BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON BUT WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 6 IN
NEBRASKA). THE BEST CHANCES (15% TO 20%) WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE TRI-CITIES AREA BETWEEN 6 PM AND 10 PM. SOME OF THESE STORMS
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 60 MPH BEING THE MAIN HAZARD. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE SOUTHWARD. THE TRI-CITIES AREA MAY EXPERIENCE A
FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A WEAK THUNDERSTORM AROUND 10 TO 11 PM. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY COOL TO AROUND THE MID 70S ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA ON
MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY DOES NOT APPEAR LIKE IT WILL HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES, BUT MODELS ARE SHOWING AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WHICH MAY HELP TO MIX OUT SOME OF THE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW MUCH OF AN
INFLUENCE THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE ON TEMPERATURES, MOISTURE, AND
CLOUD COVER FOR MONDAY. THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES (AROUND 100 TO
106 DEGREES) AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE
110 DEGREES FOR MONDAY. FOR THIS REASON, THE HEAT ADVISORY ACROSS
THIS AREA WAS UPGRADED TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING WHICH IS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 10 PM MONDAY. THERE IS LOWER CONFIDENCE (DUE TO THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FACTORS) ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA SO
THOSE AREAS WERE NOT UPGRADED AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH, THE NEBRASKA
COUNTIES BORDERING KANSAS HAVE THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF
REACHING EXTREME HEAT CRITERIA ON MONDAY AND THERE IS FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE (AROUND 70%) THAT SOME AREAS IN THESE COUNTIES
MAY HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR/AROUND 110 DEGREES ON MONDAY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM AROUND 101 IN ORD TO AROUND 106 TO 110 DEGREES ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN ROW OF COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE (UP TO AROUND A 50% CHANCE) MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(MAINLY WEST OF THE TRI-CITIES AREA). SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND
60 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD AS THE NIGHT CONTINUES.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING TUESDAY (HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW/MID 90S) AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND 90S WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. VARIOUS
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AS UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 848 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW:
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME "SNEAKY" LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THAT MIGHT TRY TO REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO MAINLY MVFR LEVELS (NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TO INCLUDE
PREVAILING SUB-VFR IN TAFS), THIS IS OTHERWISE A HIGH-
CONFIDENCE VFR FORECAST WITH ONLY VARYING DEGREES OF PASSING
HIGHER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THERE IS ALSO HIGH CONFIDENCE (AT
LEAST 80-90%) CHANCE THAT THIS WILL BE A DRY/THUNDERSTORM-FREE
PERIOD, AS ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THAT HAS TRIED TO OCCUR SO
FAR THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL NE HAS REALLY STRUGGLED TO TAKE
OFF, AND ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT MIGHT MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY EVENING SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THIS VALID PERIOD.
SEE BELOW FOR MARGINALLY-STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONCERNS.
- WINDS:
- SURFACE WINDS:
WHILE SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL REMAIN TAME (UNDER 12KT AT LEAST THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD), THERE WILL BE DIRECTIONAL SHIFT
FROM SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY THIS EVENING, TO NORTHERLY-THEN-
EASTERLY DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT.
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, SOME GUSTS OF 16+KT ARE LIKELY.
- LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR (LLWS):
THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHEAR MAGNITUDE REACHING 30+KT BETWEEN THE
SURFACE AND THE 1-2K FT. AGL LAYER HAS NOW INCREASED ENOUGH FOR
MAINLY THE 06-10Z TIME FRAME THAT A FORMAL LLWS GROUP HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED TO TAFS. DURING THIS TIME, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WITHIN
THE LOWEST 2K FT. AGL WILL ACCELERATE TO AROUND 40KT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AND TURNING MORE WESTERLY/NORTHERLY BEYOND 10Z IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING COOL FRONT.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ039>041-
046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087.
KS...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ005>007-
017>019.
UPDATE...PFANNKUCH
DISCUSSION...SCHULDT
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page