756  
FXUS63 KGID 182102  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
402 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS A FEW NORTHERN PORTIONS OF  
THE AREA TONIGHT AND ACROSS A FEW WESTERN PORTIONS TOMORROW IS IN  
PLACE. THE BETTER AREAWIDE STORM CHANCES FALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND  
NIGHT.  
 
- TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE NEXT  
SEVERAL DAYS, APPROACHING THE 100S FOR A FEW OF OUR KANSAS AND FAR  
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AREAS SAT, MON, TUE AND WED.  
 
- THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO FALL TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN  
THE 90S TO LOW 100S AND WARMEST TOWARDS THE SOUTH.  
 
- HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 DEGREES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW SOUTHERN  
AREAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD COVERAGE STARTING MONDAY.  
 
_ OFF AND ON STORM CHANCES UP TO 20-35% RETURN EACH DAY SUNDAY  
THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
 
   
..TONIGHT  
 
A WARM FRONT JUMPING OVERHEAD TODAY HAS LIFTED TEMPERATURES UP TO  
AROUND 10-15 DEGREES WARMER FROM THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS PEAKING  
NEAR 15-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIGHTEN SOME OVERNIGHT, BECOMING  
EASTERLY AGAIN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES REGION PULLS AWAY.  
 
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN  
PORTIONS OF THE AREA UP TO 25-35%. A COLD FRONT HANGING TO THE  
NORTHWEST WILL SWEEP DOWN, POTENTIALLY KNOCKING UP A FEW STORMS  
BETWEEN 8PM AND 1AM. THERE IS SOME QUESTION STILL TO HOW BROAD THE  
COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY BECOME. ANY STORMS THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL  
LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE TRI-CITIES. IT IS NOT ENTIRELY IMPOSSIBLE  
FOR AN ISOLATED STORM TO POP OUT FURTHER SOUTH, THOUGH THE BEST  
CHANCES REALISTICALLY LIE TOWARDS THE NORTH. A SEVERE STORM OR TWO MAY  
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, THOUGH IMPACTS SHOULD NOT BECOME WIDESPREAD.  
AN SPC SLIGHT RISK CLIPS PORTIONS OF VALLEY, GREELEY, HOWARD AND  
SHERMAN COUNTIES.  
 
   
..SATURDAY  
 
 
THE OVERALL BETTER STORM ENVIRONMENT AND STORM POTENTIAL FALLS  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT IN WHICH STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME  
MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THE BIG QUESTION YET TO BE WELL  
UNDERSTOOD IS WHERE AND WHEN STORMS WILL FIRE.  
 
CONDITION WISE, INCREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD OVERALL HELP INCREASE  
BUOYANCY WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROJECTED TO RANGE  
BETWEEN 6-8C/KM. THESE THERMAL PROFILES POINT TOWARD INCREASED  
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES NOW PROJECTED TO APPROACH AND IN A FEW  
NORTH AREAS, POTENTIALLY EXCEED 4,000J/KG. TOGETHER THESE PARAMETERS  
ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HAIL GROWTH.  
MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR CONVECTIVE  
DEVELOPMENT (LOW 70S DEWPOINTS WITH 1.5-2" PWATS). A FEW LIMITING  
FACTORS THAT LEAVE SOME QUESTIONS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDE  
THE PRESENCE OF A FEW AFTERNOON CLOUDS THAT COULD LIMIT DIURNAL  
HEATING AND THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AS WELL AS THE GENERAL  
LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM GENERALLY WEAKER FLOW ALOFT (<30KTS OF  
BULK SHEAR).  
 
MODELS CURRENTLY DIVERGE INTO TWO SCENARIOS THAT POINT TOWARDS  
DIFFERENT ANSWERS TO WHEN, WHERE AS WELL AS HOW IMPACTFUL STORM  
COULD BECOME. GIVEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WAVE, STORMS COULD BE ABLE  
TO DEVELOP ANYWHERE ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING/COLORADO TO CENTRAL  
NEBRASKA BETWEEN 4 TO 8PM. THE CLOSER TO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THESE  
STORMS DEVELOP, THE OVERALL BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL AS  
GREATER OVERALL STORM IMPACTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA. THIS  
SCENARIO IS CURRENTLY FEATURED WELL BY THE HRRR MODEL. HOWEVER, IF  
STORMS ARE NOT SUCCESSFUL IN DEVELOPING UNTIL LATER IN THE EVENING OR  
FURTHER TO THE WEST, SUCH AS SHOWN BY THE NAMNEST MODEL, THEN THE  
SEVER POTENTIAL THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH SOME, BUT NOT ENTIRELY. IN  
THIS CASE, STORMS MAY ARRIVE TO THE AREA MUCH LATER, CLOSER TO 11PM  
TO 3AM. THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY FEATURES A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS  
OUR WEST (CLOSER TO WHERE STORMS WOULD BE APPROACHING FROM) WITH A  
MARGINAL RISK COVERING THE REST OF THE AREA. LARGE HAIL UP TO PING  
PONG SIZE WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 60 MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY  
THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGHER THAN  
AVERAGE PWAT VALUES, CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS WELL.  
 
   
..SUNDAY AND BEYOND  
 
A FEW SHOWERS LINGERING SUNDAY MORNING FROM ANY SATURDAY NIGHT STORM  
REMNANT MAY BE FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER AREAWIDE 20-30% CHANCE OF  
EVENING TO NIGHTTIME STORMS. THOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL AS WELL AS STORM  
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LESS IN MAGNITUDE COMPARED TO SATURDAY,  
ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PROMPTS ANOTHER SPC MARGINAL  
RISK TO RETURN TO THE FULL AREA. GENERAL POP UP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
RETURN EACH DAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD  
(CHANCES UP TO 35%). THE SEVERE POTENTIAL BEYOND SUNDAY IS JUST TO  
FAR OUT TO NAIL DOWN ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.  
 
BESIDES THE PRECIPITATION/STORM POTENTIAL, THE MAIN STORY NEXT WEEK  
WILL BE THE HEAT. THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR, OTHER THAN THE FACT THAT WE  
ARE REACHING OUR CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING WARMEST PART OF THE  
YEAR, WILL BE FROM A STRENGTHENING SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE. THE  
WEAK ZONAL FLOW THAT HAS STAYED FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER THE AREA, WILL  
BE PUSHED NORTHWARD AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS RISE OVER THE  
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGING PATTERN SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR  
SEVERAL DAYS, AIDING IN COMPRESSIONAL (ADIABATIC) WARMING.  
 
HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL GRADUALLY RISE A FEW DEGREES EACH  
DAY, TOPING OUT FOR THE WEEK BETWEEN THE 90S TO LOW 100S ON TUESDAY.  
100 DEGREE TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN A FEW KANSAS AND FAR  
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AREAS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IN  
ADDITION, HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE  
FULL AREA DURING THESE DAYS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2025  
 
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:  
 
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO SHORTLY, WITHIN THE NEXT 3 HOURS, LIFT  
ABOVE MVFR LEVELS, REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE  
TAF PERIOD. WINDS STAYING BETWEEN 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON MAY  
OCCASIONALLY GUST UP TO 25KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH. WINDS OVERNIGHT  
WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES BEFORE SETTLING EAST FOR  
SATURDAY. A 20-30% CHANCE OF A STORMS IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 4-7Z  
WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR KGRI, THEREFORE THE PROB30 MENTION FOR  
KEAR WAS LEFT OUT. LLWS AT THIS TIME IS NOT QUITE EXPECTED TO  
IMPACT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL IS  
GREATER SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE LOW-  
LEVEL JET.  
 
 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...STUMP  
AVIATION...STUMP  
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