489
FXUS63 KGID 050616
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
116 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
..AVIATION UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
- AFTER A RELATIVE LULL THIS EVENING...ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS STARTS WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE WEST, MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT, BUT ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO DAWN. THESE CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE ON THROUGH MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ROUGHLY IN THE I-80 TO STATE LINE CORRIDOR.
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
- FORECAST FOR WED NIGHT ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS OVERALL
DRIER. AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WED WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S...TEMPS ARE BACK IN THE 80S FOR THURSDAY, THEN 90S TO NEAR
100 FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR SAT-MON, HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
100-105 ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2026
CURRENTLY THROUGH THIS EVENING...
A SWATH OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MAKE
THEIR WAY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE ON THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. LOOKING
ALOFT...UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOWING GENERALLY ZONAL
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ACROSS THE CONUS, UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE IS SPINNING IN THE GA/SC AREA, WHILE THE MAIN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SW IS BEING DAMPENED
BY LOW PRESSURE/BROAD TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/WESTERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN CONUS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE MAIN OVERALL FLOW...ONE
OF WHICH IS HELPING DRIVE THE ONGOING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE, THE FORECAST SITS JUST NORTH OF
THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH HAS STALLED SOME, CURRENTLY SITTING
FROM SW/SOUTH CENTRAL KS UP INTO ESERN IA. BEHIND THIS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY (ESP. BY AUGUST STANDARDS) OUT
OF THE NNE...GUSTS HAVE MAINLY BEEN AROUND 25-30 MPH. BETWEEN
THE PLENTIFUL CLOUD COVER, SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AND SITTING
ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...NOT SURPRISING THAT
IN SPOTS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING SO FAR TODAY. BY THE
TIME IT'S ALL SAID AND DONE...FORECAST HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS WILL TURN OUT ALRIGHT...BUT SOME SPOTS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NE MAY NOT END UP EVEN HITTING 70 DEGREES. STILL SOME
TIME TO RECOVER BEHIND THIS ACTIVITY ANYWHERE THERE ARE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUD COVER.
FOR THE REST OF TODAY...MAIN CONCERN LIES WITH THE ONGOING
ACTIVITY. THERE HAVE BEEN SPOTS AT TIMES THAT HAVE PERKED UP
IN STRENGTH...BUT THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF A
NOTABLE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS/SMALL HAIL THE
MAIN THREATS. INSTABILITY IS SITTING AROUND 500-1000 J/KG ACROSS
CENTRAL/NERN AREAS, CLOSER TO 1500 J/KG IN THE SE...BUT BOTH
LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY LOW. TIMING OF THE MAIN
SWATH HAS IT CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...AND WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED LINGERING
ACTIVITY, MODELS SHOWING A RELATIVE LULL...WITH BETTER LIFT
ALONG AN INCREASING LLJ LOOKING TO FOCUS JUST OFF TO OUR EAST.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, MODELS SHOWING ANOTHER EMBEDDED
WEAKER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE ROCKIES
AND ONTO THE PLAINS...USHERING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHER-RES MODELS AREN'T IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT SHOWING THAT AS FAR AS TIMING GOES...THE BETTER
CHANCES HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO/AFTER 09Z. LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE OVERALL COVERAGE INITIALLY, SO POPS REMAIN
BROAD WITH CHANCES IN PLACE CWA-WIDE. THE OVERALL BEST CHANCES
RUN ROUGHLY FROM AROUND SUNRISE THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS...DROPPING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST, POSSIBLY DRY AREA-WIDE
BY MID-AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN FOCUSED THROUGH THE
HEART OF THE FORECAST AREA, ROUGHLY FROM I-80 TO NEAR THE STATE
LINE...THOUGH AT LEAST 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES ARE OUTSIDE THAT
CORRIDOR TO COVER THE REST OF THE AREA. NOT ANTICIPATING THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE SEVERE...WITH THE SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK REMAINING
WELL OUTSIDE OUR BOUNDARIES.
AT THE SURFACE, WINDS WON'T BE AS GUSTY AS THEY HAVE BEEN
TODAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS TURN
MORE EASTERLY WITH TIME, SPEEDS TOPPING OUT AROUND 10 MPH. THE
DAYTIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER MAKE FOR
A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS THERE WILL BE SOME
OPPORTUNITY TO RECOVER IF PRECIP DOES IN FACT CLEAR OUT BY MID-
AFTERNOON AND WE CAN GET BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER. FORECAST
HIGHS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE IN THE LOWER
70S, WITH MID-70S TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH.
THURSDAY AND ON...
LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THIS WEEK ON INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK...OVERALL THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY NOTABLE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST. BIG PICTURE-WISE...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME FLEXING TO VARYING
DEGREES OF WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. THE MAIN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED GENERALLY OVER THE DESERT SW...AT
TIMES ABLE TO AMPLIFY A BIT MORE EARLY-ON THANKS TO DEEPER
TROUGHING OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS...BUT THEN IS
DAMPENED BY ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MOVING ONTO WESTERN CANADA/FAR
NNWRN CONUS. SPOTTY, GENERALLY LOW-END PRECIPTIATION CHANCES
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST...AS THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
PERIODIC SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND TRACKING OF ANY OF THESE
DISTURBANCES IS PRETTY LOW AT THIS POINT.
FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A WARMING TREND FROM THE 70S OF
WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW-MID 80S ON THURSDAY INCREASING INTO THE 90S-
NEAR 100 FOR THIS WEEKEND/MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100-105
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SAT-MON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2026
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:
- GENERAL OVERVIEW (INCLUDING WINDS):
THE MAIN ISSUES/UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE TO INVOLVE: 1) HOW FAR
INTO THE PERIOD DOES MVFR CEILING PREVAIL BEFORE IMPROVING TO
VFR?...2) THE LIKELIHOOD/AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...3) COULD SOME FOG TRY TO DEVELOP
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REDUCE VISIBILITY TO
SUB-VFR? THERE IS ALSO AN OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT VISIBILITY COULD
BRIEFLY BE REDUCED TO SUB-VFR IF ANY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS PASS
OVERHEAD THIS MORNING. AS FOR WINDS, ASSUMING NO "SURPRISE"
ENHANCEMENT FROM CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW, THEY WILL BE A VERY MINIMAL
ISSUE, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AT-OR-BELOW 10KT THROUGHOUT, AS
DIRECTION PREVAILS NORTHEASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTLY FOR THE
MOST PART.
- CEILING/VISIBILITY TRENDS/UNCERTAINTIES:
SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING EXACTLY WHEN THE ONGOING MVFR CEILINGS LIFT AND/OR
SCATTER OUT TO VFR. WHILE HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN A BIT MORE
TOWARD THE "PESSIMISTIC" (LATER) SIDE, DID MOVE UP OUTRIGHT VFR
BY ONE HOUR TO 19Z (ADMITTEDLY THIS COULD EASILY END UP BEING
OFF BY A FEW HOURS EITHER WAY SO BE OPEN TO ADJUSTMENTS). ONCE
VFR RETURNS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO
WATCH THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD (MAINLY TOWARD 05-06Z) FOR THE
POSSIBLE ONSET OF INITIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD END UP
BEING MORE OF AN ISSUE FOR THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.
- SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL:
WHILE AT LEAST SPOTTY/ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP ANYTIME EARLY THIS MORNING, HAVE STUCK
WITH THE PREVIOUSLY-ADVERTISED 10-16Z TIME FRAME FOR A PROB30
GROUP...AS THAT IS THE MAIN MOST FAVORED WINDOW FOR SOMEWHAT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AT LEAST IN THE GENERAL AREA.
CONSIDERED INTRODUCING A HIGHER-CONFIDENCE TEMPO GROUP TO A PART
OF THIS TIME, BUT WITH HIGHER-RES MODELS STILL SUGGESTING THAT
THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
KEAR/KGRI...STUCK WITH PROB30 FOR NOW.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...PFANNKUCH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page