352  
FXUS63 KGID 160001  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
701 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON THROUGH TONIGHT, AND FOR MOST  
LOCATIONS, THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY LOOK TO BE DRY AS  
WELL.  
 
- STORM CHANCES START MOVING INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY  
TUESDAY, WITH EXPANDING/INCREASING CHANCES DURING THE EVENING  
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT, THERE WILL BE THE  
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BE STRONG-SEVERE ACROSS NWRN  
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
 
- A MESSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES  
AROUND IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY ON THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FINER TIMING/LOCATION DETAILS IS  
NOT HIGH. DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME,  
MODELS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR A WIDE SPREAD 1-2  
INCHES OF RAIN, MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH CENTRAL NE COUNTIES.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 347 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025  
 
CURRENTLY THROUGH TONIGHT...  
 
QUIET CONDITIONS REIGN ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH  
SATELLITE IMAGERY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE  
DATA ALSO SHOWING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY, WEAKER FLOW IN  
PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA SITS BETWEEN  
THE BLOCKED PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE  
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SE COAST, AND  
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE SPINNING NEAR THE ND/CANADA BORDER AND  
OVER THE ID/WY/MT BORDER REGION. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS  
DRAPED THROUGH THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN  
HIGH PLAINS...KEEPING OUR WEST SOUTHERLY...BUT WITH AN OVERALL  
WEAKER PATTERN, WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH HERE AT MID-  
AFTERNOON. NO BIG SURPRISES AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...MOST  
SPOTS LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S. NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE  
FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WHICH REMAINS DRY.  
MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DIGGING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH  
WITH TIME, AS THE CENTER OF LOW PUSHES FURTHER EAST INTO  
NORTHERN WY. EXPECTING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER  
OVERNIGHT, AND WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT, DID DROP LOWS A  
TOUCH, WITH UPPER 50S IN THE NW TO LOWER 60S IN THE SE.  
 
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...  
 
AS WE GET INTO THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...MAIN CHANGE THE  
FORECAST, AN OVERALL MINOR ONE, WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ONSET OF  
STORM CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RECENT HI-RES MODEL  
DATA ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE  
FORECAST AREA (SOME SAY ALL) REMAINS DRY DURING THE 12-00Z TIME  
FRAME. FOCUS WILL BE OFF TO THE WEST, WHERE MODELS SHOW THE MAIN  
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND TROUGH AXIS MAKING LITTLE  
EASTWARD PROGRESS OVERALL...WITH A LEAD VORT MAX LOOKING TO  
SWING ENE INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW  
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER EASTERN CO, WITH A TROUGH  
AXIS/COLD FRONT EXTENDING NEWARD THROUGH THE NEB SANDHILLS INTO  
CENTRAL SD AND A TROUGH AXIS/DRY LING SOUTH ALONG THE CO/KS  
BORDER. DURING THE AFTERNOON/PEAK-HEATING HOURS, THOUGH THE  
GREATER UPPER LEVEL LIFT IS STILL WORKING ITS WAY EAST, STORMS  
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...MORE ISOLATED THE  
FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO.  
 
WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AND  
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...MODELS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY  
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY OUT WEST, BUT  
DEEPER LAYER SHEAR IS ONCE AGAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE OF THINGS. AS  
THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS PUSHES INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE  
FORECAST AREA, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BE  
STRONG-SEVERE, MAINLY THROUGH MIDNIGHT, AND THE NW HALF OF THE  
FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE SPC DAY 2 MARGINAL RISK AREA.  
MODELS SHOWING THE COVERAGE OF STORMS POTENTIALLY A LITTLE MORE  
SCATTERED WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW  
CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA, CHANCES NEVER TOTALLY DROP  
OFF.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND ON...  
 
LOOKING AT MID-WEEK ON THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MODELS REMAIN IN  
FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF THE BIG PICTURE...BUT  
THERE ARE PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FINER DETAILS. THE MAIN  
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL WORKING ITS EAST  
MAINLY THROUGH WY DURING THE DAY...EVENTUALLY WORKING ITS WAY  
MORE ONTO THE PLAINS. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS ON  
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW...COMPLICATED BY THE  
FACT THERE IS AT LEAST ONE OTHER VORT MAX EMBEDDED/ROTATING  
AROUND. THIS LOOKS TO CONTINUE ON EVEN INTO FRIDAY...WITH MODELS  
NOT SHOWING THIS SYSTEM MAKING MORE OF A PUSH OUT OF THE AREA  
UNTIL THIS WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/LOCATION DETAILS OF  
HIGH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH...ESPECIALLY WED NIGHT  
ON.  
 
AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS GO...THERE IS A THE POTENTIAL  
FOR WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES HIGHEST ACROSS OUR  
SOUTH CENTRAL NE COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT, ENS PROBABILITIES AND  
DETERMINISTIC MODELS BOTH NOT SHOWING HIGH POTENTIAL FOR MORE  
THAN ISOLATED SPOTS WITH HIGHER TOTALS THAN THAT...BUT WE'LL SEE  
HOW THINGS TREND IN THE COMING DAYS.  
 
FOR TEMPERATURES...AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH, AS HOW  
PRECIPITATION ULTIMATELY ENDS UP EVOLVING COULD GREATLY IMPACT  
THINGS...AT THIS POINT HIGHS WED-FRI ARE MAINLY IN THE 70S (SOME  
SPOTS COULD STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S)...WITH MORE 80S  
RETURNING BY SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025  
 
FOR KGRI/KEAR AIRPORTS:  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, WITH ONLY A LOW (10-15%) CHANCE FOR  
MVFR VISIBILITY SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AGAON TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH  
GUSTS AROUND 15KT.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
KS...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...ADP  
AVIATION...MANGELS  
 
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