464
FXUS63 KGID 241149
AFDGID
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
649 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019
I STUCK SOME AREAS OF FOG INTO THE FORECAST FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA, WITH A STRONG SIGNAL PICKED UP BY HRRR. HRRR
INDICATES THAT MOST OF THE FOG SHOULD DIMINISH BY 11 AM OR SO.
AS THE MID-LEVEL CYCLONE SLOWLY MOVES EAST, THE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING SHOULD DO THE SAME. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WRAP-
AROUND MOISTURE TO RE-IGNITE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA, CLOSER TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CYCLONE.
ANOTHER PERTURBATION WORKS IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND COULD GIVE US SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. SOUNDINGS AND THICKNESSES KEEP OUR PRECIP ALL
LIQUID, ALTHOUGH WE COULD BE CUTTING IT CLOSE TONIGHT IN OUR FAR
NORTH/WEST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019
A BIT OF A STRONGER PERTURBATION COMES BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, GIVING SOME AREAS A LITTLE MORE
CHANCE AT SOME LIGHT RAIN INTO MONDAY NIGHT, AND STAYING ALL
LIQUID.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO MID-WEEK, WITH
HIGHS CONSISTENTLY FORECAST INTO THE 70S, WITH A STIFF SOUTH
BREEZE. WE COULD GET SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A
DECENT LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS JET AXIS
LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT BE MORE FOCUSED EAST OF THE CWA, AND REALLY
UNSURE IF WE HAVE MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT YET. CAN'T RULE SEVERE
CHANCES COMPLETELY OUT, BUT DEFINITELY NOT A SLAM DUNK.
THIS TROUGH IS TRENDING SLOWER, SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE TO ACHIEVE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY BEFORE THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES.
LOOKS LIKE TOO MUCH CLIMATOLOGY MAY BE USED IN OUR FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS MODELS SEEM TO BE UNDERDOING JUST HOW MUCH
COLD AIR ADVECTION WE WILL GET, BUT WE'LL GET A BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. RIGHT NOW OUR FORECAST IS FOR
MAINLY 40S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY, BUT WE MAY ONLY MAKE 30S FOR HIGHS
WITH STRONG NORTH WIND, AND WILL FEEL MORE LIKE A WINTER DAY THAN
SPRING. ON SATURDAY, WE MAY BE LUCKY TO HIT JUST 40 DEGREES IN
THE TRI- CITIES, ALTHOUGH OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS IN THE MID 40S
FOR NOW. THE COOL TREND SEEMS TO BE STICKING AROUND THROUGH
PERHAPS INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL, ACCORDING TO ENSEMBLES.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019
CEILINGS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN LIFR AND IFR THIS MORNING, AT LEAST
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE SHIFTS EAST AND ALLOWS CEILINGS TO INCREASE. VISIBILITY
MAY BE QUITE VARIABLE THIS MORNING AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN KGRI,
BUT IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY 16Z OR SO, IF NOT SOONER. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING NEAR 00-03Z, AND GUSTINESS TO
THE WIND WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS WELL.
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
SHORT TERM...HEINLEIN
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page