290  
FXUS63 KGID 291427  
AFDGID  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE  
927 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
   
UPDATE
 
 
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR A FEW REASONS.  
FIRST, I INCREASED SKY COVER IN OUR NORTH TO ACCOUNT FOR THE  
STUBBORN STRATUS AT ABOUT 900 FEET AGL.  
 
ALSO, I INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA DUE TO  
LATEST HRRR AND HREF RUNS, SUGGESTING COVERAGE OF AT LEAST 40-50  
POPS RATHER THAN 20-30. STILL WILL BE LOW SHEAR AND MODERATE  
MLCAPE ENVIRONMENT, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A STRONG STORM OR TWO THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE BOUNDARY LOOKS LIKE IT IS  
BISECECTING THE CWA, ROUGHLY FROM WEST NORTHWEST TO EAST  
SOUTHEAST, CUTTING THROUGH THE TRI-CITY REGION, AND SHOULD BE  
STALLED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  
 
ALSO ADDED SMOKE FROM HRRR SMOKE RUN MODEL, ADDING HAZE INTO THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. FOLKS COULD  
WIND UP SMELLING SOME SMOKE BY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING IN THE  
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, NORTH OF I-80, WITH VISIBILITY  
POTENTIALLY DROPPING TO 3-5 MILES.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 416 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE LOCAL  
AREA THIS MORNING. OVER THE PAST HOUR...A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS FRONT...AND JUST  
COMPLETED AND UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO COVER THIS ADDITIONAL  
DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAYS 92...THROUGH AROUND 10 AM  
CDT. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VERY HOT CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT  
TODAY...AS A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE  
REGION. PER THE LATEST GUIDANCE...UPPED TEMPS ABOUT A DEGREE SOUTH  
OF THE FRONT TODAY...WHICH COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID  
70S...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING TO NEAR 110 THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
AS THE HEAT BUILDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE CAP ERODES...EXPECT JUST  
ENOUGH FORCING NEAR THIS FRONT TO RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED  
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE  
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO  
JUSTIFY THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRONGER TO MARGINALLY SEVERE  
STORMS...WITH 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS  
BOTH POSSIBLE. THAT SAID...SHEAR IS LACKING...AND MOST STORMS  
SHOULD BE QUICK TO FIRE AND DISSIPATE...WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS  
BEING MORE LIKELY THAN HAIL.  
 
WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST ON  
FRIDAY...ANOTHER WARM/HOT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA  
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH 850 MB TEMPS COME DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THIS  
AFTERNOONS FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH (COMBINED WITH  
SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS)...TO KEEP MOST/IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA  
FROM REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. EVEN SO...A SLIGHT CHANGE  
IN THE WARMER DIRECTION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT WOULD  
LIKELY JUSTIFY THE EXTENSION OF HEAT ADVISORIES ACROSS PARTS OF  
THE LOCAL AREA ANOTHER DAY.  
 
THE GOOD NEWS...HOWEVER...IS A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO  
PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY....WITH  
NEARLY A 10C DROP IN TEMPS ANTICIPATED IN ITS WAKE. THIS SHOULD  
SPELL A MUCH MORE PLEASANT WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVER THE  
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  
THEREAFTER...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE MESSY IN  
MORE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...RESULTANT FROM AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF  
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO OUR WEST...WHICH ALONG WITH MORE  
SEASONAL WEATHER SHOULD BRING INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR  
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE LOCAL AREA NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY)  
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT THU JUL 29 2021  
 
MODEST LLWS CONTINUES TO BE EVIDENT ON THE VWP...AND CONTINUED  
THIS MENTION THROUGH 29/14Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT THE WEAK COLD  
FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD TO RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS  
IT APPROACHES THE TERMINALS...WITH A SHIFT TO EAST NORTHEASTERLY  
WINDS IN ITS WAKE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME...COULD  
SEE A COUPLE OF -TSRAS OR -SHRAS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AND  
COVERED THIS WITH THE MENTION OF A VCTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON  
HOURS.  
 

 
   
GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ046>049-060>064-  
072>077-082>087.  
 
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ005>007-017>019.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...HEINLEIN  
DISCUSSION...ROSSI  
AVIATION...ROSSI  
 
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