286
FXUS63 KOAX 271733
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1233 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN MARKS THE RETURN OF DAILY
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING AND
LASTING THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
- DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DEVELOP BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
A SLOW PATTERN SHIFT IS BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE ACROSS THE CONUS. AT
THE MOMENT, A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE
SIERRAS, WITH A SHORTWAVE EXTENDING OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, A
SECOND TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER EASTERN CANADA, AND A SPLIT-RIDGE IS
SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST. UNDER THIS SPLIT
RIDGE, OUR TEMPERATURES REMAIN HOT TODAY INTO TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AREAWIDE. THESE TEMPERATURES
ARE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY. UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SPLIT-RIDGE, ANY CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BE
SUPPRESSED AND CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AS A RESULT.
OUR HOT AND DRY WEATHER BEGINS TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP BY THURSDAY
EVENING. AS THE UPPER-LOW OVER THE SIERRAS BEGINS TO WEAKEN, LOBES
OF ENHANCED LIFT WILL SWING OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THESE WILL HELP TO FOSTER DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
INITIALLY, RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES EXPAND INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA ON FRIDAY, AND
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BY THIS WEEKEND. THE OVERALL PROBABILITY
OF PRECIPITATION REMAINS MODEST WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTING A LOW
(15-40%) CHANCE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
THANKFULLY, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL LIMIT WIND SHEAR KEEPING THE
THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER TO A MINIMUM. TEMPERATURES WILL
BECOME MILDER AS WE RETURN TO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, A BLOCKING PATTERN MAY TAKE SHAPE. A TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS, A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS, AND
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SETS THE STAGE FOR STAGNANT
WEATHER. IN THIS SCENARIO, TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEAR-
NORMAL IN THE LOWER 80S WITH THE WORST OF THE HEAT DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALMOST INEVITABLE
WITH CONVECTION BECOMING SUPPRESSED UNDER THE RIDGE. HOPEFULLY, THIS
STAGNANT PATTER DOES NOT STICK AROUND TOO LONG.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW CUMULUS BASED AROUND 7-9 KFT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND A BIT VARIABLE TONIGHT. INCREASING
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION ALSO.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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