045
FXUS63 KOAX 262310
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
510 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED FOR MOST TODAY.
AREAS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.
- WARMTH CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
WITH A FEW 70S NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. GUSTY WINDS
WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH 50 TO 70%
CHANCES FOR SNOW. THERE IS A 10 TO 20% CHANCE FOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
- ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES (30 TO 60%) EXPECTED FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 156 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
18Z GOES-19 DAY CLOUD PHASE REVEALS CLEAR SKIES OVER A VAST PORTION
OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA. WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW COUPLED WITH THE CLEAR
SKIES AS LED TO TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE UPPER 50S TO EVEN 60F AT
LINCOLN AND WAHOO AS OF 18Z. JUST TO THE NORTHEAST, TEMPERATURES ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER WHERE EXISTING SNOWPACK LINGERS FROM NEAR FREMONT
TOWARD HARLAN, IA. SO, DID LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT FROM NBM
GUIDANCE IN THESE AREAS TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, BUT THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. GOOD MIXING ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA HAS LED TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MIXING TO THE
SFC ALONG WITH DRIER AIR. THE BREEZY 20 TO 25 MPH WINDS WITH RH OF
20 TO 25% WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA FOR TODAY. WINDS TAPER OFF EARLY THIS EVENING, WHILE LOWS
TONIGHT ARE FORECAST IN THE 30S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
BY FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE A STRONG H5 SHORTWAVE TROF EJECT FROM
WESTERN CANADA SOUTHEAST INTO SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THIS
FEATURE WILL INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS, AND WHILE THE MAIN SFC LOW IS
PROGGED TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SWING THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE MID TO UPPER
60S FOR MOST, WHILE A FEW SPOTS MAY REACH 70F ALONG THE
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS BECOME GUSTIER THAN
TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 25 TO 30 MPH. FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST EFFICIENT MIXING OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, TAPPING INTO A 30
TO 35 KT H8 LLJ THAT ROUNDS THE STRONG, CANADIAN LOW. ONCE AGAIN,
GOOD MIXING SHOULD HELP BRING DOWN DRIER AIR TO THE SURFACE LEADING
TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
THERE IS POTENTIAL TO SEE WINDS OVERPERFORM FROM NBM GUIDANCE AS A
FEW MODELS SUGGEST GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 WILL ALSO SEE VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER, BUT WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AS THE MAIN H8 JET
PRIMARILY AFFECTS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY SEEN
WITH THE STRENGTH OF WINDS, HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
FOR FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FROM 17Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SATURDAY. TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ASSESSED TO SEE IF AN UPGRADE TO RED FLAG
WARNING IS NEEDED.
WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE BY FRIDAY EVENING AS A SFC HIGH INCHES SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 20S PRIMARILY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80, WHILE LOWS HOVER AROUND THE FREEZING MARK
ACROSS OUR VERY FAR SOUTHERN SERVICE AREA.
LONG TERM
/SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS WE HEAD TOWARD SATURDAY, A WEAKER H5 SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST FORCING FROM
THE FEATURE REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA, AND THE NBM KEEPS A VAST
PORTION OF OAX DRY. 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEP THE BRUNT OF
ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
ALSO COOL TO THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WHILE WARMER TEMPERATURES
IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED IN OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREA.
FOR SUNDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE
WILL EJECT FROM EASTERN COLORADO TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BROAD
ISENTROPIC LIFT IS NOTED FROM THE 295-300K SFCS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA, WHILE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS
REACH 10 MB OR LOWER, IMPLYING SATURATION IS LIKELY TO BE
ACHIEVED. POPS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY WITH 50 TO 70% CHANCES FOR PRECIP MAINLY SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE FROM BOONE TO WAYNE COUNTY. WHILE STILL SEVERAL DAYS
OUT, FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SNOW AS THE MAIN PTYPE,
BUT A FEW SUBTLETIES ARE NOTED. AT TIMES OVER OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS, ICE INTRODUCTION IS LOST WHILE A NEAR SFC 1-2KM SATURATED
LAYER IS OBSERVED IN SUBFREEZING TEMPS, IMPLYING AT LEAST SOME
LOW END POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR AND ASSESS TRENDS IN THE COMING DAYS. THOSE WITH TRAVEL
PLANS WILL WANT TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THERE IS A 10 TO 20% CHANCE
FOR AT LEAST MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS OVER THE AREA.
12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL HAVE VARIOUS DIFFERENCES IN
LOCATION OF SNOW AND AMOUNTS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE: PROBABILITIES
FOR 1 INCH OR MORE OF SNOW ARE HIGHEST WITH THE GEFS AND CANADIAN
WITH A 40 TO 70% CHANCE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST, WHILE THE EURO IS MUCH
LOWER WITH A 20 TO 40% CHANCE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN SERVICE AREA.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
AHEAD OF A MORE POTENT WAVE EJECTS TOWARD THE PLAINS AREA. THIS
LEADS TO A 30 TO 50% CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX. THE MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVE REACHES THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY,
RESULTING IN CONTINUED 30 TO 60% CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WARM TO THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST THU FEB 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS DIMINISH IN THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE SWITCHING TO SOUTHWEST OR
SOUTH TONIGHT. WINDS SWITCH BACK TO NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AT 12-14 KT WITH GUSTS OF 19-26 KT. LLWS APPEARS LIKELY AT KOFK
AND KOMA IN THE 27/11-15Z TIMEFRAME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-016>018.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...MEAD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page