419  
FXUS63 KOAX 150514  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
1214 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- A CHANCE (15-35%) OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY.  
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT,  
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.  
 
- TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM BACK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,  
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. BREEZY TO WINDY  
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.  
 
- A COUPLE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,  
WITH A 20-45% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025  
 
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY:  
 
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS  
INDICATE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TX WITH  
AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.  
MEANWHILE, A PROMINENT, MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING ONTO THE  
CENTRAL CA COAST. THE LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST  
THROUGH THE SIERRA NEVADA TONIGHT, AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON  
WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SAME  
GENERAL AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE NE-  
KS BORDER AS OF 2 PM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH  
OUR AREA THIS PERIOD, WITH A WARMER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE  
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.  
 
LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING TO THE NORTH  
OF THE WARM FRONT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND  
AREAS OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SAME PROCESSES  
WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE (15-35% POPS) OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE  
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AREAS OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG APPEAR  
LIKELY TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NE. AS MENTIONED  
ABOVE, WE'LL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS  
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST NE TO LOWER 80S ACROSS  
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA.  
 
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:  
 
THE GREAT BASIN LOW MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH  
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY, WITH A TRAILING MID-LEVEL  
TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON  
FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A PACIFIC FRONT/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE LATTER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON  
FRIDAY. WE'LL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT  
ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THE AIR  
MASS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH (MINIMUM RH OF 35-45%) TO LIMIT  
ANY FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS TO CORN AND BEAN FIELDS WHERE HARVEST  
IS ONGOING.  
 
THURSDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY, WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-45% POPS) ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT  
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY  
AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE-WEATHER RISK. THOSE  
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.  
 
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:  
 
THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING  
THE MOVEMENT OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL  
U.S. ON SATURDAY, IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS  
FORECAST UPDATE WILL INDICATE SMALL POPS (15-20%) IN PARTS OF  
SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, VARIOUS  
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD  
FRONT, SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST  
UPDATES. THE SATURDAY TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE MS VALLEY  
ON SUNDAY, WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS GROWING MODEL  
SPREAD IN THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE  
WESTERN U.S., WHICH LEADS TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN OUR FORECAST.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
NORMAL, WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025  
 
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY (FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE) EXPECTED  
TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO MID-MORNING. LATEST  
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF  
OMA AND LNK, BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG  
WORKING IN (10-20% CHANCE). ALSO HAVE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED STORMS OUT THERE THAT COULD CONTINUE TO POP UP  
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN  
ANYTHING HITTING A TAF SITE REMAINS LOW. OTHERWISE, LOWER CLOUDS  
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE  
AFTERNOON WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND  
SPEEDS ON EITHER SIDE OF 10 KTS, WITH SOME GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS AT  
OFK.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ016-017-  
030>032-042-043-050-065.  
IA...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...MEAD  
AVIATION...CA  
 
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