441
FXUS63 KOAX 101127
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
527 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR TODAY (15 TO 45% CHANCE).
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WILL LEAD TO BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WITHIN SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS TAPER
OFF BY THE EVENING HOURS.
- DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S AND 50S. WARM TUESDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING 60F IN A FEW
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES COOL WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
30S TO LOW 40S.
- NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION (15 TO 30% CHANCE) RETURNS
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
08Z KOAX RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO A PASSING H5 WAVE WITH
LATEST RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING A FAIRLY NARROW BAND OF H5-H7
OMEGA IN THE VICINITY OF THE SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD KEEP PUSHING EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING EXPECTED. OUR
PATTERN ALOFT SHOWS THE H5 WAVE FUSING TOGETHER WITH A MORE POTENT
DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE MANITOBA/MINNESOTA BORDER LATER TODAY.
TODAY WILL SEE THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE
INTO A CLOSED LOW WHILE A LOBE OF VORTICITY SWINGS THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. H8 COLD AIR ADVECTION FUNNELS IN AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FORCING FROM THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
COUPLED WITH LOW LEVEL FGEN SHOULD HELP FORCE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
SNOW SHOWERS TODAY. LATEST BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW -10 TO -15
UBARS OF OMEGA AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITHIN A FAIRLY SHALLOW BUT
SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW US
MIXING JUST ABOVE H8 WHERE A 30 TO 40 KT JET ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST
SIDE OF THE LOW, RESULTING IN GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.
THE GUSTY WINDS COULD RESULT IN RAPID VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN AREAS
THAT EXPERIENCE THESE SNOW SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW SLICK SPOTS. A
BRIEF SNOW SQUALL CERTAINLY ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER. LATEST
CAM SUITE SHOWS SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
BY 12Z AND LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OF NOTE IS HOW A FEW
CAM MEMBERS, PRIMARILY THE HIRES FV3, ARW, HRRR, AND ARW DEVELOP A
MORE NARROW, LINEAR BAND OF REFLECTIVITY WHERE A MORE DEFINED
PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET IS SEEN CLIPPING OUR IOWA COUNTIES LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, HAVE MAINTAINED 30 TO 45% POPS ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OUR SERVICE AREA, WHILE 15 TO 20% POPS
ENCOMPASS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 12Z TO 23Z TODAY. POPS
TAPER OFF WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT BY THE EVENING HOURS. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL SEE MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS AND KEEP AN EYE ON THE
FORECAST. ALLOW FOR EXTRA TIME TO ARRIVE AT YOUR DESTINATION SAFELY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ONLY REACH THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST,
AND NEAR 40F NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. THE REINFORCING CAA
SHOULD RESULT IN A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN DRY CONDITIONS. BY MIDDAY, THE H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL ADVANCE
EAST AS WARM AIR ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD HELP
WARM TEMPERATURES TO NEAR 50F ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS, WHILE
MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA SEES HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. SOUTHWEST
IOWA WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY BREEZY TOO FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM
/MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THICKNESSES
SLOWLY INCREASE AND PUSH EAST. MOST AREAS SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S
MONDAY AND A FEW SPOTS REACH 60F TUESDAY. MUCH OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, AND A FEW
DISTURBANCES ARE SEEN RIDING THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SNEAKING THROUGH
THE AREA THOSE DAYS BUT PRECIP LOOKS TO STAY NORTHEAST OF THE AREA
AT THIS TIME. THE WARM UP WILL BE SHORT LIVED, AS A MORE POTENT WAVE
EJECTS SOUTHWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS RESULTS IN A COOL DOWN WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S. WHILE THE DETERMINISTIC NBM SHOWS DRY
CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME, SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS QPF TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AFFECTS OUR AREA.
A BRIEF WARM UP THURSDAY (40S-50S) IS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SHOT OF
COOLER AIR FRIDAY AS A MORE PROMINENT LONGWAVE TROF PARKS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES AREA. THIS WILL ALSO BRING OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH NBM SHOWING 15 TO 30% POPS (MAINLY FOR SNOW)
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SAT JAN 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL THREE
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO
30 KTS AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. SNOW
SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE (20 TO 35% CHANCE) LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES AT KOFK.
COMBINED WITH THE GUSTY WINDS, COULD SEE IFR VISBY REDUCTIONS AT
TIMES. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUP AT KOFK WHILE ADDING ANOTHER
TEMPO GROUP AT KOMA FOR MVFR CEILINGS. UNCERTAINTY IN SPATIAL
COVERAGE TO THE SOUTH STILL EXISTS SO HAVE LEFT OUT -SN MENTIONS
AT KOMA AND KLNK, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE AMENDMENTS/ADJUSTMENTS
IF NEEDED. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 00Z AND THEREAFTER.
THE GUSTY WINDS MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER UNTIL 03Z TO 05Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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