149  
FXUS63 KOAX 092058  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
358 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- VERY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH HIGHS  
IN THE 60S OR 70S EVERY DAY BUT TUESDAY (40S AND 50S).  
 
- VERY WARM, DRY, AND WINDY WEATHER ON MONDAY WILL LEAD TO VERY  
HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.  
 
- A STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES (60-80%) AND  
STRONG WINDS BACK TO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
TODAY AND TOMORROW:  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO FEATURE THE BROAD  
RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WHILE A  
SHEARED-OUT AND OPENING SHORTWAVE CONTINUES SCOOTING ALONG THE GULF  
COAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE SHOT UP INTO THE 60S FOR THE ENTIRE AREA,  
INCLUDING PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THAT HAS RECENTLY MELTED ITS  
SNOW. WINDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT DESPITE THE STRONG MIXING,  
AND THE DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE WESTERLY WINDS HAS ONLY FURTHER  
PUSHED TEMPERATURES UPWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE INCOMING RIDGE.  
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S AND SHOULD MAKE  
FOR AN EVEN WARMER STARTING POINT FOR TOMORROW.  
 
TO START THE WORK WEEK WILL BE A GUSTY AND VERY WARM FORECAST, WHERE  
BOTH OMAHA AND LINCOLN ARE FORECAST TO EITHER TIE OR BREAK HIGH  
TEMPERATURE RECORDS (LINCOLN'S RECORD BEING 78 AND OMAHA'S 77  
RESPECTIVELY). PEELING BACK THE LAYERS OF THE POSSIBLE OUTCOMES,  
BIAS-CORRECTED DATA IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE HEAT COMPARED TO  
SOME OF THE RAW INPUT, WITH THE NBM BEING CLOSE TO THE BOTTOM 25% OF  
THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS TEMPERATURE FOR THE AREA. WE'VE LEANED ON THE  
WARMER, MORE MIXED, AND THEREFORE MORE GUSTY SCENARIO TO SOUND THE  
ALARM FOR EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. RECENT  
COORDINATION WITH FUELS EXPERTS HAS INDICATED TO US THAT THE RECENT  
MOISTURE WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IMPACT ON HOW EASILY FUELS WILL BURN,  
MAKING GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH AND MINIMUM RH VALUES OF 15-25% DURING THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. FIRE THAT DO IGNITE WILL BE EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO  
CONTROL SO AVOIDING ANY ACTIVITY THAT COULD LEAD TO SPARKS IS  
RECOMMENDED. A WIND SHIFT WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS A DRY  
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TO SHIFT WIND DIRECTIONS AS WELL.  
 
TUESDAY AND THROUGH THURSDAY:  
 
WITH THE OVERNIGHT PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, WE'LL HAVE OUR HIGHS  
KNOCKED BACK DOWN INTO THE 50S. WE'LL SEE THE AREA GO THROUGH  
ANOTHER STAIR-STEP WARMING PATTERN JUST LIKE WE EXPERIENCED STARTING  
LAST FRIDAY, ONLY TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE 60S WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED  
BY 70S THURSDAY. THOUGH THE SIGNAL ISN'T AS STRONG FOR FIRE WEATHER  
THURSDAY, WE SHOULD STILL SEE A AREAS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER  
THANKS TO CONTINUED DRY WEATHER AND WINDS GUSTING TO 25 MPH.  
 
FRIDAY AND BEYOND:  
 
THE NEXT BIG WEATHER-MAKER ARRIVES FRIDAY AS A DEEPENING TROUGH  
TRIGGERS LEE CYCLOGENESIS BEFORE NEGATIVELY TILTING AND EJECTING  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. SIGNIFICANT SPREAD CONTINUES TO EXIST  
WITH THE SYSTEM IN IT'S ORIENTATION AND EJECTION SPEED BUT THERE  
AREA A FEW THINGS THAT LOOK LIKE VERY GOOD BETS. AS THE SYSTEM  
ARRIVES, IT WILL CONTINUALLY BE DEEPENING AND FURTHER RAMPING UP  
WINDS AHEAD AND BEHIND IT VIA EXTREMELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT  
FORCES. WINDS FRIDAY LOOK POTENTIALLY WIND ADVISORY-WORTHY WITH  
GUST POTENTIAL OF 45 MPH+, WHILE SATURDAY LOOKS EVEN STRONGER  
AT POTENTIALLY 50+ MPH. NEXT ON THE TABLE ARE THUNDERSTORM  
CHANCES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WHERE BOTH EPS AND GEFS ML  
GUIDANCE HAVE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CLIPPED BY  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES. WHATEVER DOES FORM WILL  
LIKELY BE CLUSTERED AND MESSY IN NATURE, BUT IT'S HARD TO SAY  
WHAT EXACT HAZARDS WE'D SEE WITH THE TIMING SPREAD AS IT  
CURRENTLY STANDS. NEXT IS THE PRECIPITATION THAT WILL ACCOMPANY  
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW  
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S,  
WITH MOST OF THE AREA HANGING ONTO TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH  
9 PM, KEEPING MOST OF ANYTHING FROM STICKING. A CONDITIONAL  
POINT OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE THE ORIENTATION OF THE DRY  
SLOT, WHICH COULD FACILITATE EXTREME FIRE DANGER FOR A SHORT  
PERIOD OF TIME. UNTIL THINGS COME TOGETHER A LITTLE BIT MORE,  
WE'LL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON GETTING TOO EXCITED ABOUT THAT  
POTENTIAL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT SUN MAR 9 2025  
 
WINDS HAVEN'T PICKED UP SPEED TOO MUCH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON,  
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AT JUST OVER 10 KTS WITH ONLY A FEW  
HIGH CLOUDS WAFTING THROUGH. OVERNIGHT, WINDS WILL CHANGE FROM  
WESTERLY TO SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND WEAKENING TO UNDER 5 KTS  
BEFORE INCREASING IN SPEED 16Z ONWARD TOMORROW MORNING WITH  
GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS ARRIVING AS WELL. MODELS SHOW LOW-END CHANCES  
(10% CHANCE) AT FOG NORTH OF KOMA, BUT THE SIGNAL IS EVEN  
WEAKER THAN THIS MORNING'S ODDS AND WON'T BE INCLUDED IN THE  
TAF.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ016-  
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.  
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR IAZ069-079-  
080-090-091.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN  
AVIATION...PETERSEN  
 
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