836
FXUS63 KOAX 040526
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1226 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, WITH ONE OR TWO STRONG STORMS PRODUCING HAIL OR
DAMAGING WINDS.
- INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THERE IS A 30% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING,
AND IF THEY DEVELOP, THEY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS.
- SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY BRINGS A PERIOD OF SLIGHTLY
COOLER, SLIGHTLY DRIER, AND MAINLY PRECIPITATION FREE
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPED THIS EVENING, BUT THE OVERALL
INTENSITY OF THOSE STORMS HAS WANED AS WE'VE GOTTEN INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. AS OF MIDNIGHT, WE DO HAVE SOME FRESH DEVELOPMENT
ON THE NOSE OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL JET FROM THE GRAND ISLAND AREA
OVER TOWARD WAHOO. THIS ENVIRONMENT HAS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF
MOST UNSTABLE CAPE, IN THE 3000 J/KG RANGE, BUT THE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
A BIT OF A WEAK CAP FOR THOSE ELEVATED PARCEL SOURCES. GOING
FORWARD, ANTICIPATE THIS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
CONTINUE PARTICULARLY BETWEEN LINCOLN AND COLUMBUS AND AREAS TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR ONE OR TWO OF THE
STRONGEST STORMS TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL, BUT IT SEEMS IT WOULD
REQUIRE A PARTICULARLY TALL UPDRAFT TO ACCESS BETTER EFFECTIVE
SHEAR, AND MIGHT BE FAVORED IN ANY LEFT-MOVING ELEVATED
SUPERCELL THAT CAN DEVELOP GIVEN THE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED
EFFECTIVE HODOGRAPH. BY 2 OR 3 AM, THESE STORMS SHOULD BE ON A
DECREASING TREND AS THE WEAK LLJ FURTHER WEAKENS AND REFOCUSES
FARTHER SOUTH.
INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOW 90S, AND DEWPOINTS UP AROUND 70 AGAIN. MUCH OF THE
DAY IS LIKELY TO BE FREE OF PRECIPITATION, BUT THERE IS A
FEATURE OF INTEREST CURRENTLY CROSSING CENTRAL MONTANA IN WV
IMAGERY SCHEDULED TO APPROACH OUR NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING. SEVERAL (BUT DEFINITELY NOT ALL)
MODELS ARE PRODUCING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE IS WEAK AND
UNIMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE MID/UPPER SUPPORT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SET OFF STORMS. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN SD AND
NORTHERN NE, THERE IS A DECENT SIGNAL THAT THEY COULD PUSH A
COLD POOL SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND FORCE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE
WITH UNIMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS, SO A WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED STORM
COMPLEX DOESN'T LOOK ESPECIALLY LIKELY, BUT WILL STILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AND OF COURSE,
ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING OF THE 4TH
CAN HAVE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS. RIGHT NOW I'D SAY WE'RE LOOKING AT
ABOUT A 30% CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM INFLUENCING PEAK FIREWORKS
HOURS, AND MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF ALBION, NORFOLK, AND WAYNE
AREAS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE QUIETER WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIRMASS. TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR, BUT LATE IN THE DAY COULD SEE
STORM CHANCES RETURN ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THERE IS STRONG MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THAT TROUGH WILL SAG
THROUGH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEN OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ARRIVES
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2026
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING. EXPECT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO FADE
OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY FROM WEST TO EAST. HAVE -TSRA FOR THE NEXT HOUR AT
KOMA AND THE NEXT TWO AT KLNK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THAT TIMING IS LOW
AND MORE DEVELOPMENT MAY MEAN AMENDED TAFS SOON.
HAVE ALSO ADDED SOME LOWER CIGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AROUND
SUNRISE. HAVE LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KOFK FROM 4AM TO 10AM.
THAT'S PRETTY PESSIMISTIC, BUT IT'S CLOSE TO EXPECTATIONS.
AFTER THE FOG LIFTS, CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO VFR AND
NORMALCY WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...TSN
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