615  
FXUS63 KOAX 241151  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
651 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL AROUND A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW  
CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.  
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY THIS  
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES  
BEHIND THE FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD LINGER  
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.  
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY AS A 1035  
MB SURFACE HIGH SKIRTS THE AREA TO OUR NORTH. MONDAY HIGHS WILL  
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOW 50S IN THE SOUTH.  
 
A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW AND INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW  
SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR FAR  
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT ONLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY WITH INCREASING LOW-  
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE  
SURFACE WINDS FOR MID-WEEK WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30-40 MPH  
RANGE QUITE LIKELY. A THE SAME TIME, A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL  
SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN  
CONUS. A THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST  
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN  
COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY LATER  
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH IS FORECAST TO  
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, A WESTERN  
CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE  
REGION WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FROM THE DAKOTAS DROPPING SOUTH,  
ALLOWING THE SURFACE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY WITH RAIN IN THE  
SOUTH AND A MIX IN THE MIDDLE. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE  
SOUTH BEHIND THIS WAVE ENDING PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WITH MUCH  
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER  
AGREEMENT BUT STILL HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES AND SO FORECASTER  
CONFIDENCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW IN THE EXTENDED.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST  
THIS AFTERNOON. VARIABLE CEILINGS MVFR/IFR/LIFR WITH LIGHT RAIN WILL  
BECOME MORE PREDOMINENTLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AT WITH DRIER  
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE 10 TO 15KTS. THERE MAY BE  
SOME BREAKS WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY  
EVENING, HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL FILL BACK IN TONIGHT  
WITH REINFORCING BACKDOOR COOLING.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...KERN  
LONG TERM...KERN  
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY  
 
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