020
FXUS63 KOAX 281049
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
549 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXTREME FIRE DANGER SATURDAY WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS
GUSTING 35 TO 50 MPH AND RH FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND
POSSIBLY SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL
PERSIST ON SUNDAY.
- 60S RETURN SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY 70S AND 80S SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. COOLER THEREAFTER WITH 50S AND 60S INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- LIGHT RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY (20-40%) WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION NOW FAVORED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
OR SATURDAY (40-60% CHANCE).
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING IN AND LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL SET UP FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 20S FOR MOST AND PERHAPS A FEW TEENS AS YOU GO
FARTHER EAST INTO IA.
THE COOLER WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS THE
HIGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE ROCKIES LEADING TO QUICKLY STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW FOR SATURDAY. THIS WILL USHER IN WARMER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ON SATURDAY. IT
WILL ALSO REMAIN QUITE DRY WITH RH FALLING INTO THE LOWER TEENS
AND PERHAPS A FEW SINGLE DIGITS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW 30-40 KTS
THROUGHOUT THE MIXED LAYER DURING THE DAY WITH EPS AND HREF
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING MEAN GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE. A FEW
SPOTS IN AT LEAST NORTHEAST NE COULD EVEN TOUCH 50 MPH AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AS MIXING STARTS AND BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL JET WEAKENS. AS A RESULT, WE'LL HAVE WIDESPREAD EXTREME
FIRE DANGER AND A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA FROM 9 AM THROUGH 10 PM.
WINDS WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW EDGES EASTWARD AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.
HOWEVER, THE CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW (SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH)
WILL WARM US EVEN FURTHER, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S. WITH RH FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, WE COULD
HAVE ANOTHER DAY OF HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER, BUT NOT
LOOKING LIKE A RED FLAG DAY. MONDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER AS
TEMPERATURES TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH A FEW SPOTS
POSSIBLY MAKING A RUN AT 90 (SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE
TIED/BROKEN). A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE HINT AT SOME LIGHT QPF
MONDAY AS SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDES THROUGH. HOWEVER,
LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS, THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN EXTREMELY DRY
WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 10,000 FT, SO IT WOULD BE TOUGH FOR
ANYTHING TO REACH THE GROUND. THAT SAID THERE IS A LITTLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY, SO CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM (10% CHANCE).
THE MAIN STORY TUESDAY WILL BE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN GUIDANCE REGARDING
TIMING, WHICH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY. THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN TOWARD A FASTER PASSAGE, MEANING
ONLY FAR SOUTHEAST NE HAS A SHOT AT REACHING 70 DEGREES BEFORE
TEMPERATURES START FALLING THROUGH THE DAY. THE 60 DEGREE LINE
IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO RUN ALONG A LINCOLN TO OMAHA LINE, WITH
AREAS TO THE NORTHWEST LIKELY ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 50S VERY
EARLY IN THE DAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
SOME RAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY, THOUGH CONSENSUS
WOULD FAVOR IT BEING PRETTY LIGHT AND SPOTTY (20-40% CHANCE OF A
FEW HUNDREDTHS). IN ADDITION, IT DOES LOOK FAIRLY BREEZY BEHIND
THE FRONT (30+ MPH), WHICH MAY YIELD SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, BUT IT WILL DEPEND ON PRECIP AND TIMING, AS THE
EARLIER PASSAGE WOULD SUGGEST STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR IN THE
MORNING WHILE RH IS HIGHER.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK STILL LOOKS TO BRING A PATTERN SHIFT
WITH LARGER SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING BUILDING IN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS LEAVING US UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INSTEAD
OF NORTHWESTERLY/RIDGING. WE MAY GET A FEW BITS OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO SLIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND GIVE US
SOME LIGHT PRECIP (20-40% CHANCE), BUT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
TOWARD DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THOSE DAYS, AND INSTEAD HOLD OFF ON
THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES AS THE LARGER SCALE TROUGH
STARTS TO PUSH IN FRIDAY/SATURDAY. THERE REMAINS A LOT OF SPREAD
ON TRACK AND TIMING, AND THEREFORE, PRECIP AMOUNTS, BUT CHANCES
STILL PEAK IN THE 40-60% RANGE LATE NEXT WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND.
WHILE IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN, DEPENDING ON TIMING AND TRACK,
WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW MIX IN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 549 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
WILL PERSIST FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF CYCLE. A BAND OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CEILINGS AT 9,000 TO 11,000 FEET WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING EAST BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY
LATE THIS MORNING AND GUSTY AT 30 TO 35 KTS. THE GUSTY WINDS
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT SUBSIDE A LITTLE BY 00Z TO 20 TO
25 KTS. THE WINDS TAPER OFF SLOWLY AFTER 03Z. A PERIOD OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD TERMINALS AFTER 03Z AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.
CLIMATE
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2026
.......MONDAY, MARCH 30TH..........
...... FORECAST..... OLD RECORD
LINCOLN, NE.. 88F .... 88 IN 1917
OMAHA, NE.... 87F .... 89 IN 1968
TEKAMAH, NE . 86F .... 81 IN 2015
FALLS CITY .. 88F .... 90 IN 1986
NORFOLK, NE . 86F .... 87 IN 1968
VALLEY, NE... 86F .... 78 IN 2012
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065>068-078-088>093.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CASTILLO
CLIMATE...NICOLAISEN
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