990
FXUS63 KOAX 070519
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1219 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT SLICK, SNOW-COVERED ROADS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE IN EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SNOW WITH TOTALS IN THE 2-4" RANGE
WITH A FEW SPOTS SEEING 5-6", MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA
(20-30% CHANCE).
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON APR 6 2026
THE WELL-ADVERTISED PRECIPITATION BAND WAS UNDERWAY AS OF 10 PM
WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS RAMPING UP ALONG WITH 700
MB WARM AIR ADVECTION PER LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS. SO FAR, IT
WAS MAINLY RAIN AND SLEET FALLING WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES
STILL HOVERING IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S AND A LITTLE
INSTABILITY ALOFT, THOUGH WE'LL EVENTUALLY SEE A TRANSITION TO
SNOW AS WE CONTINUE TO COOL OFF OVERNIGHT, THOUGH IF SLEET
CONTINUES, IT MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOWFALL TOTALS. LATEST
SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD LOWER SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, THOUGH EARLIER RUNS WERE QUITE HIGH. RECENT RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE EVEN BROUGHT TOTALS BELOW 2", THOUGH JUST
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF
SLIGHTLY FASTER, THINK THAT REDUCTION MAY BE A LITTLE EXTREME.
SO IN THE END, STILL EXPECTING A BAND OF 2-5" WITH PERHAPS A FEW
LOCALIZED SPOTS HITTING 5-6" (20-30% CHANCE, MAINLY IN
SOUTHWEST IA). ALSO STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST BAND SETS UP, WITH GUIDANCE STILL WOBBLING BY ABOUT A
COUNTY OR SO. OVERALL CONSENSUS PLACES THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF 3-5"
STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY TEKAMAH, NE, TO ATLANTIC, IA, BUT IT
WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH OF A A SHIFT SOUTHWARD TO PUT IT RIGHT OVER
THE OMAHA/COUNCIL BLUFFS METRO AREA (CURRENTLY EXPECTING AROUND
2-3" THERE). WIND WON'T BE OVERLY STRONG AS SNOW FALLS (10-15
MPH) AND SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AND WET, BUT HREF STILL SUGGESTS A
60-80% CHANCE OF 1" PER HOUR RATES IN THE MIDDLE OF THE BAND
(2-5 AM), SO VISIBILITY WILL STILL BE QUITE POOR AT TIMES.
BOTTOM LINE, THE MORNING COMMUTE COULD BE SLOW AND SLIPPERY, SO
MAKE SURE TO GIVE YOURSELF EXTRA TIME IF YOU GET SNOW.
SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF/EXIT BY AROUND 9-10 AM WITH SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS STRENGTHENING AND GUSTING 20-25 MPH, HELPING TO USHER IN
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S FOR MOST, THOUGH AREAS THAT END
UP WITH SNOW MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 30S. SHORT-TERM
GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONGOING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. MEANWHILE, GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A CUTOFF LOW WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING ALONG THE
NE/SD BORDER BY EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, PERHAPS TRIGGERING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THAT SAID, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD STORMS NOT
DEVELOPING ALONG IT UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN IT'S
NEARLY OR COMPLETELY OUT OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE, TRENDED PRECIP
CHANCES DOWNWARD A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (20-40%).
HOWEVER, SAID FRONT LOOKS TO STALL IN OUR AREA OR JUST SOUTH
INTO KS/MO THROUGH ABOUT SATURDAY WHILE VARIOUS BITS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDE THROUGH AND DECENTLY STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT POINTS INTO THE FRONT, GIVING US CONTINUED SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND (40-80% CHANCE). THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME BREAKS IN THERE, BUT STILL SOME DETAILS TO BE
WORKED OUT ON TIMING.
BY SATURDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ADVANCING NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. AS SUCH, SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION
FAVORING AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND PERHAPS LEADING
TO A FEW STRONGER OR EVEN SEVERE STORMS AT TIMES. MACHINE
LEARNING GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A 5-15% CHANCE OF SEVERE
STORMS FOR AT LEAST SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
OBVIOUSLY STILL LOTS OF DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT BEFORE THEN.
OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT OF A ROLLER COASTER,
THOUGH STILL SEASONABLE, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, 50S AND 60S BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, THEN BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE
WEEKEND. THAT SAID, THESE WILL BE INFLUENCED BY PRECIPITATION ON
A GIVEN DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT TUE APR 7 2026
RAIN/SLEET HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SWITCH OVER TO SNOW AT KOMA.
EXPECT DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WITH PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DOWN TO LIFR IN
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND T-1" AT
OFK AND 2-3" AT OMA, BUT IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH OF A SHIFT OF
THE HEAVIEST BAND TO SEE 4+ AT OMA. AS SNOW IS FALLING, EXPECT
WINDS TO BE OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST AROUND 10-12 KTS. ONCE
SNOW ENDS AROUND 12-14Z, WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY,
GUSTING 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. SOME
GUIDANCE HINTS AT LINGERING FOG/DRIZZLE FOLLOWING THE SNOW, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRING REMAINS LOW. IF IT DOES, COULD SEE
LINGERING VISIBILITY OF 3-5SM. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR
AT KOMA AND KOFK BY 00Z THIS EVENING, WITH VFR RETURNING TO KLNK
AROUND 20Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NEZ033-034-044-045-051>053.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
IAZ055-056-069-079-080.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...KG
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