253  
FXUS63 KOAX 060308  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
1008 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE  
40S, WITH THE UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN IOWA.  
 
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  
 
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY  
(30-60% CHANCE), WITH ADDITIONAL LOW-END (AROUND 25%) CHANCES  
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025  
 
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW  
CENTERED OVER ONTARIO, WITH A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK PIVOTING AROUND  
ITS AXIS AND DRIVING STRONG ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS  
THE REGION. THIS SETUP IS USHERING IN COOLER AIR, WITH HIGHS TOPPING  
OUT IN THE 60S, ROUGHLY 15 BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS, UNDER MOSTLY  
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING AT 20-30  
MPH.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE WEEKEND, MAINTAINING  
DRY CONDITIONS WHILE EASING THE GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE  
BELOW AVERAGE, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. THE DRY AIR  
MASS WILL ALSO BRING A NOTICEABLE DROP IN HUMIDITY AND ALLOW  
OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DIP INTO THE 40S, WITH THE UPPER 30S POSSIBLE IN  
WESTERN IOWA.  
 
MONDAY AND BEYOND...  
 
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD,  
ALLOWING A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS AND GRADUALLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE  
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST, WITH A WARM FRONT  
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.  
 
HIGHS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, MUCH  
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMS. THE WEAK RIDGE IN PLACE WILL ALLOW SEVERAL  
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING PERIODIC  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE FIRST ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY  
MONDAY (POPS 15-30%), FOLLOWED BY A MORE POTENT DISTURBANCE LATE  
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY (POPS 30-60%). SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS  
LOW OVERALL, WITH LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE BRINGING MODEST INSTABILITY  
BUT LIMITED BULK SHEAR. STILL, BOTH GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE-BASED  
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTS A 5-10% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE  
WEATHER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THE DETAILS  
SHAKE OUT AS IT APPROACHES.  
 
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION  
CHANCES REMAINS LOW IN THIS EXTENDED TIME FRAME, WITH PERIODIC 15-  
30% POPS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL, MORE DRY PERIODS ARE  
EXPECTED THAN WET.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1008 PM CDT FRI SEP 5 2025  
 
A SHALLOW BANK OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AT FL080 INTERRUPTS AN OTHERWISE  
QUIET EVENING, WITH WIND SPEEDS HAVING DIED TO NEAR ZERO. THE WEAKER  
WIND SPEEDS HAVE SIGNALED AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR VERY PATCHY  
FOG, WITH SHORT-TERM MODELS TARGETING WESTERN IOWA WITH ANY  
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS, WITH A 30% CHANCE OF THEM REACHING THE  
KOMA TERMINAL FROM 09-14Z. OTHERWISE, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT  
LESS THAN 10 KTS SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE PERIOD UNTIL THEY BEGIN  
SHIFTING NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 00Z.  
 
 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...WOOD  
AVIATION...PETERSEN  
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