070
FXUS63 KOAX 122312
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
612 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY MORNING WITH A 30-40%
CHANCE FROM 3 TO 10 AM. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA, WHERE A FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK UP TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY WITH MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST DETAILS BEYOND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES SLIGHTLY NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS, WITH A FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO, A SURFACE LOW IS TAKING SHAPE,
PICKING UP THE WESTERN END OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND
HELPING TURN WINDS SOUTHERLY TO ITS EAST. THOSE SOUTHERLIES ARE
GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER ASIDE FROM SOME SLIGHT GUSTINESS TO
20-25 MPH. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER
80S, LINGERING SOME OF THOSE WINDS INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS ADVANCE FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, STALLING OUT A BIT OVERNIGHT AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET RAMPS UPWARDS. WORKING IN TANDEM WITH THE INCREASING
JET, THE SURFACE LOW WILL WORK TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE MOST
EFFICIENTLY CLOSER TO ITS LOCATION -- FROM CENTRAL KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN END OF THAT JET
WILL WORK TO INITIATE WEAKER SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA
THAT WILL CARRY INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. SINCE THE EXTENDED RUNS OF
THE CAMS YESTERDAY, THE 16Z HRRR HAS THE NOSE LOW-LEVEL JET PLACED
ABOUT 80 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST, SHIFTING MUCH OF THAT ACTIVITY
THAT IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR CLOSER TO 4 AM ONWARDS CLOSER TO THE
NE/SD BORDER LOCALLY.
NAILING DOWN THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE THE KEY FOR IDENTIFYING HOW MUCH
OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA WILL SEE STORMS, IN ADDITION TO
THE CEILING THAT THOSE STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE.
THE NUTS AND BOLTS OF TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING ARE ALL
REVOLVING AROUND A SOUTHEASTERLY-SHIFTING BAROCLINIC ZONE, WHERE
SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS. BULK SHEAR
VECTORS WILL LARGELY BE IN-LINE WITH THE FRONTAL SURFACE, MAKING
UPSCALE GROWTH QUICK. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MORNING
CONVECTION, SPECIFICALLY AS TO HOW LONG IT LINGERS OVER
NORTHEAST/EASTERN NEBRASKA. ONE SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR CONVECTION TO
FESTER ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE, KEEPING CLOUD DEBRIS
INTO THE MORNING HOURS THAT WOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION, SHUNTING THE SEVERE ENVIRONMENT TO THE
SOUTHEAST -- WELL SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 80. THE OTHER SCENARIO
LIMITS THE AMOUNT OF STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS,
ALLOWING FULL DESTABILIZATION AND INITIATION ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY NEAR TO JUST NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 80. EITHER
SCENARIO BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR ALL HAZARDS, GOING FROM INITIALLY
DISCRETE STORMS TO LARGER MCS STRUCTURES AS THINGS GROW TOGETHER
AND TO THE SOUTHEAST. BY 8 PM, STORM ACTIVITY WILL HAVE PUSHED
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA, LEAVING US WITH COOLER NORTHERLY
WINDS THAT TAKE US INTO NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND:
SUNDAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK STARTS US OUT COOLER BUT GRADUALLY
WARMS US BACK INTO FEELING LIKE SUMMER (MID/UPPER 80S). AS THE
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP, SO TOO WILL RETURN INCREASING CHANCES FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS A LOW-
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS MAY RESULT IN
LLWS AT OFK AND OMA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS JET
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE
HAS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF OFK BEFORE QUICKLY LIFTING
NORTH. OMA AND LNK ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SEE ANY IMPACTS CURRENTLY.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST THEN NORTH ALONG
AND BEHIND THIS FRONT, EVENTUALLY BECOMING GUSTY. AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. CURRENTLY, THE BULK OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
BE FOCUSED SOUTH OF OMA AND LNK. IF THUNDERSTORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP NEAR THESE TERMINALS, IT IS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 21-00Z.
THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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