889
FXUS63 KOAX 081104
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
504 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE (50-70% CHANCE) IN PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST-CENTRAL IOWA TODAY. MINOR
TRAVEL IMPACTS MAY OCCUR, AND A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT.
- SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 30S. WIND CHILLS MAY BE AS LOW AS THE
SINGLE DIGITS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 50S
AND 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
TODAY AND TONIGHT:
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY TODAY IN
TANDEM WITH A SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF
THOSE FEATURES, CLOUDS HAVE STEADILY INCREASED WITH 2 AM
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND FREEZING ALONG THE SD BORDER
INTO WEST-CENTRAL IA TO LOW 40S IN SOUTHEAST NE.
SINCE LAST EVENING, THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER WITH
BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
AREA, WHICH MATCHES WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. AND, LATEST CAM
DATA SUGGEST THAT STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF HIGH PRECIPITATION RATES WITHIN THE EVOLVING
DEFORMATION AXIS/TROWAL STRUCTURE FROM NORTHEAST NE INTO WEST-
CENTRAL IA BETWEEN 6 AM AND 10 AM. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
THAT ZONE INDICATE A SATURATED ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE LOWEST
4-5 KFT CENTERED RIGHT AT THE 32F/0C ISOTHERM. 00Z HREF DATA
INDICATE A 50-60% CHANCE OF 0.5"/HR SNOWFALL RATES DURING THAT
TIMEFRAME WITH A 40-60% CHANCE OF 2" OF SNOW ALONG A HARTINGTON
TO WAYNE TO ONAWA, IA THIS MORNING. IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THOSE
PROBABILITIES ARE BASED ON A 10:1 SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIO WITH OURS
BEING CLOSER TO 6-8:1. THAT BEING SAID, A NUMBER OF THE CAMS
INDICATE A SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT DEVELOPING ALONG THAT AXIS
THIS MORNING WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO A FEW INCHES IN
AREAS WHERE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION RATES OCCUR. AS SUCH, WE
HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON
TODAY FOR CEDAR, WAYNE, THURSTON, AND MONONA COUNTIES WHERE
MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO PERIODS OF LOW
VISIBILITY AND SLUSH-COVERED ROADS.
THE THE INITIAL SHIELD OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION SPREADING SOUTH INTO THE AREA FROM SD. A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NE INTO WEST-CENTRAL IA, AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXPENDED IN TIME IF IT BECOMES APPARENT THAT
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR. THE SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH-TO-SOUTH THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES AREN'T EXPECTED TO WARM MUCH TODAY WITH AFTERNOON
READINGS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S WHERE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
LOW 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST PART OF OUR AREA. WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER A MUCH COLDER
AIR MASS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING
INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY:
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEP,
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES INTO OH VALLEY, WHILE AN
UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE HIGH BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A
COLD, CONTINENTAL-POLAR AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUNDAY
MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS (AS MENTIONED ABOVE), AND HIGHS ONLY
REACHING THE 30S. LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL BE EVEN COLDER
WITH READINGS LARGELY IN THE TEENS. WIND CHILLS BOTH MORNINGS
WILL BE IN THE 5-10 DEGREE RANGE, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A COLD
START FOR THOSE GOING TO WORK AND SCHOOL MONDAY MORNING. THE
COLD, LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL START TO ERODE ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE 40S.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
A HIGH-LATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA
WILL HASTEN THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW
(MENTIONED ABOVE). AS A RESULT, A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED FROM THE ROCKIES INTO GREAT PLAINS, WHICH IN TURN WILL
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DRY AND WARMER SURFACE PATTERN WITH
HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 50S AND 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 504 AM CST SAT NOV 8 2025
AN INITIAL WAVE OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINAL
LOCATIONS BY 15-17Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERY PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY 20-21Z AND THEN END BY ABOUT
00Z. THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RAIN, BUT SOME WET SNOW COULD MIX IN AT KOFK THIS MORNING, AND
AT KOFK AND KOMA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES IS LOW WITH THE GENERAL TREND OF LOWERING CLOUD
HEIGHTS TO MVFR AND POTENTIALLY IFR TODAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING
BACK TO VFR TONIGHT. CURRENTLY OBSERVED LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND THEN STRENGTHEN
CONSIDERABLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR NEZ012-015-
018.
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR IAZ043.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...MEAD
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