318
FXUS63 KOAX 280450
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1150 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ALL HEAT RELATED ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE IMPROVED AND TEMPERATURES ARE
COOLING DOWN.
- A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING,
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S.
- THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE STILL EXTENDING
FROM THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND BLACK HILLS TO OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED DOWN A BIT AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
HAVE FALLEN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THEREFORE, THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND EXTREME HEAT WARNING HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE FOR
THE ENTIRE CWA. WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE RIDGE, WILDFIRE SMOKE IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION. WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING ANY
MAJOR IMPACTS TO VISIBILITY; HOWEVER, SOME HAZY SKIES AND A FAINT
SMELL OF SMOKE MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
CLOUD COVER INCREASES OVERNIGHT, ALONG WITH OUR CHANCES FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE (20%) FOR A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR AREA. ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAKE IT
INTO OUR AREA MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING SOME STRONG WIND
GUSTS.
CLOUD COVER STICKS AROUND TUESDAY MORNING, DECREASING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW MODELS TRY TO BRING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS
IN THE MORNING, WITH THOSE CHANCES DIMINISHING HEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WE WILL FINALLY SEE SOME RELIEF FROM THE DANGEROUS HEAT
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING UP INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
LOW 90S. A FEW MODELS TRY TO BRING IN SOME CHANCES (20%) FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY, THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST
SLIGHTLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW MEXICO, EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-80S TO LOW 90S FOR MOST AREAS.
EXPECT A PATTERN SHIFT ON THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO OUR
WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY, TAPPING
INTO WARM, GULF MOISTURE AND BRINGING IT NORTH INTO THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. MODELS ARE SHOWING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF
AT LEAST AN INCH WITH SEVERAL SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR 1.5" OR MORE.
WE'RE STILL A FEW DAYS AWAY FROM THE EVENT, BUT IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP, WE MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, TAPERING OFF WEST
TO EAST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL IOWA AND MINNESOTA. ENJOY
SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AS HIGHS STAY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE REGION
AND LOWS SATURDAY MORNING FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID-60S. THE COOLER
AIR STICKS AROUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD PERSIST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. 0430Z RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
APPROACHING LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE WEST. SHOULD SEE A
FEW SHOWERS IMPACT KOFK WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE FOR SOME -TSRA IS EXPECTED AT KLNK SO HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP THERE. SOME SPOTS MAY SEE LOCALIZED DROPS TO MVFR
VIS AND CEILING IN THUNDERSTORMS, AND STORMS COULD ALSO BE
SEVERE WITH 50KT GUSTS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH AT KOMA SEEING
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH MODEL GUIDANCE TAKING THE BRUNT OF IT
SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL, SO HAVE LEFT MENTIONS OUT. THEREAFTER,
SHOULD SEE MID TO HIGH BASED CLOUDINESS PREVAIL. WINDS TURN
CLOCKWISE DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS, REMAINING FROM
THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THERE IS A LOW
15% CHANCE FOR A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM IN THE AFTERNOON AT KOMA
AND KLNK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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