408
FXUS63 KOAX 090414
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1114 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING FIRE DANGER
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS WILL BE THE WARMEST PERIOD OF THE SEASON
SO FAR.
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
TAKE A MOMENT TO APPRECIATE TODAY'S BEAUTIFUL WEATHER.
* NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE PLEASANT WITH AN AXIS OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DRAPED FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH IOWA AND
NEBRASKA TO THE HIGH COUNTRY OF COLORADO.
* TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 70S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE ARE
THE NUMBERS I SET ENTER INTO MY THERMOSTAT. IN OTHER WORDS, I
HAVE A MACHINE IN MY HOME THAT ALLOWS ME TO CHOOSE ANY AMBIENT
TEMPERATURE FOR MY HOME AND I CHOOSE THE NUMBERS THAT ARE
OUTDOORS RIGHT NOW.
* SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE AREA. A QUICK SEARCH ON
MY MUSIC APP SHOWS AT LEAST 20 ALBUMS NAMED "SUNNY SKIES".
IF YOU'RE AMONG THE MANY THAT APPRECIATE THIS TYPE OF WEATHER,
YOU'RE GOING TO APPRECIATE THE FORECAST AND WHAT I'M ASSUMING
WILL BE A SHORT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION.
UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS REVEALS A REX BLOCK OVER THE CENTRAL US WHICH
IS HALF COMMON FOR MAY. AN OMEGA BLOCK HAS LOST ITS SOUTHERN LOW
AND TRANSITIONED INTO A REX BLOCK BUT TOGETHER THEY'VE LEFT THE
PATTERN STAGNANT. IT WILL REMAIN THAT WAY FOR A WHILE. AS WINDS
DECOUPLE UNDER THE CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT, TEMPS WILL SLIP INTO THE
UPPER 40S WITH SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE SODAK BORDER HOLDING ONTO
50F.
TEMPERATURES DO WARM TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY IN
RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST. THIS WILL PUSH DAILY
MAXIMUMS INTO THE 80S AND THEY'LL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
A FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OUT OF THE DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY BUT WASHES
OUT AS IT PASSES AND/OR SETTLES NEAR THE SD/NE BORDER. TEMPS
SHOULD SEE LITTLE IMPACT. SOME LOCATIONS, INCLUDING OMAHA, MAY
HIT 90F FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR. SOME LOCATIONS, INCLUDING
LINCOLN, HAVE ALREADY MANAGED THAT FEAT.
AS THE H5 PATTERN BREAKS DOWN AND MEANDERS EAST THIS WEEKEND,
A THERMAL RIDGE NOSES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES. A LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ON
SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING THE BL MIXED AND TEMPERATURES WARMER
THAN THEY HAVE BEEN. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A BREEZY
PERIOD.
SUNDAY THROUGH AS LONG AS EVEN WEDNESDAY WILL BRING BREEZY
AFTERNOONS TO THE AREA. THIS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
EXACERBATE FIRE CONCERNS WHERE FUELS ARE STILL CURED. FOR THIS
CWA THE MOST FLAMMABLE GRASSES AND WEEDS ARE IN FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA ACCORDING TO OUR FIRE PARTNERS. BARRING MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST, FIRE HEADLINES LOOK LIKELY.
THURSDAY'S CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IS A WEEK OUT AND TIED TO A
POSSIBLE CUT-OFF LOW WORKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CONUS. PLEASE
DON'T COUNT ON A DAY SEVEN'S 30% CHANCE OF PRECIP TO KEEP YOUR
BEGONIAS HAPPY. IF YOU EXPECT YOUR GARDEN, GRASS, AND THUMB TO
KEEP ITS GREEN HUE, YOU'LL HAVE TO RELY ON IRRIGATION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS MAY BECOME VARIABLE FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK BOUNDARY
DRIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BECOMES MORE
DOMINANT ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...KG
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