409
FXUS63 KOAX 302325
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
625 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND HOT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 100, ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PULSED THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING, BUT
STRUGGLED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ESSENTIALLY TEARING THEM
APART. CAMS CONTINUE TO ALLOW WEAK SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BUBBLE UP
IN THE MOIST, UNSTABLE AIRMASS THOUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
HAVE STRUGGLED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S BY NOON TODAY, GIVEN THE
LINGERING MORNING CLOUD COVER. OUTSIDE OF THE CLOUDS, SOME SITES
HAVE PUSHED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AIDED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.
HEAT INDICES COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 100-105 IN FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. EXACTLY HOW WARM WE GET WILL BE GREATLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER LINGERS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
MONDAY MORNING, IN THE WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT
DRIFTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. WHILE A STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO MAY
BE POSSIBLE, WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT BROUGHT THIS WEEKEND'S HEAT WILL SLIP TO THE
EAST MONDAY, WITH FLATTER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERSPREADING THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK.
A WEAK FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY, PROVIDING A
POTENTIAL IMPETUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. HOWEVER, RECENT CAM
RUNS HAVE BEEN WAFFLING ON WHETHER OR NOT STRONG UPDRAFTS WILL FORM.
IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES, UP TO 30-
40 KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR, AND 1000-2000 J/KG OF INSTABILITY WOULD BRING
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE REGION WILL BRING REPEATED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DOESN'T LOOK LIKE A SLAM
DUNK, AS UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY PUSH BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS FROM THE WEST. OVERALL DAILY PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN
AROUND 10-30%, WITH OCCASIONAL ISOLATED STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN TO BACK OFF FOR THE EVENING
TO 5 KTS OR LESS. THERE WILL BE SOME VARIABILITY IN THE WIND
DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT, WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS LOOKING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY TOMORROW MORNING (30% CHANCE), WITH THE
LATEST RUNS TARGETING 12-16Z AT THE AREA TERMINALS. ALONG WITH
THE RAIN, A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH
LIGHTNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD. ANY AREAS THAT DO
SEE RAIN WILL SEE WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY BEFORE RETURNING TO
BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AFTER THEY PASS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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