158
FXUS63 KOAX 212315
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
515 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS COLD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING, WITH
WIND CHILLS RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO AS LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST PERIOD IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
- SNOW CHANCES (50-70%) MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW TO
AREAS, MAINLY OMAHA SOUTHWARD.
- TEMPERATURES TREND BACK UPWARD GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
STRONG WINDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE AREA WITH WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS
70 MPH (KTQE)! IN ADDITION TO THE WIND WE DO HAVE A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORT MAX MOVING INTO CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP
LEAD THE SHOWERS OFF TO OUR EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE ARCTIC HIGH STARTS TO SLIDE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES ON THURSDAY BRINGING IN COLDER AIR. THE FRIGID AIR
DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -15 TO 0 ACROSS OUR AREA AND WIND CHILL
FALLING TO -20 TO -35. LEFT THE EXTREME COLD WATCH IN PLACE FOR
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES, AND WILL LIKELY NEED A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF OUR AREA FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WE'RE CLOSELY MONITORING THE BIG
WINTER SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTH. MODEL TRENDS IN
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH THE
SNOW, BRINGING SNOW TO OUR AREA MAINLY OMAHA SOUTHWARD. THE
GEFS HOLDS STRONG WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK KEEPING OUR AREA
CLEAR APART FOR AREAS ALONG THE KANSAS STATE LINE. WENT WITH THE
NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS, KEEPING IT AT ABOUT A COIN-FLIP
WHETHER WE SEE SNOW OR NOT. DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR THAT WILL
NEED TO BE OVERCOME, WE'RE NOT THINKING AT THIS TIME WE'LL SEE
MUCH MORE THAN ABOUT AN INCH UP TO TWO TOWARD THE KANSAS STATE
LINE, IF WE SEE ANYTHING AT ALL.
CLOUD COVER AS WELL AS A WIND REVERSAL TO LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL HELP TO KICK OFF THE GRADUAL "WARMING"
TREND EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WE'LL STILL SEE HIGHS ON
SATURDAY ONLY GET INTO THE 0 TO 5 DEGREE RANGE WITH WIND CHILL
KEEPING IT FEELING LIKE BELOW ZERO. SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE
SLIGHTLY LESS FRIGID, WITH WIND CHILL ONLY DROPPING TO -20 TO -10.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WE CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
LOW TEENS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL BRING ONE LAST SHOT OF FRIGID
AIR FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
HELPING TO BRING WIND CHILL BACK DOWN TO -15 TO -25 ACROSS OUR
AREA BEFORE TEMPERATURES WARM UP MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLES SHOW A JUMP IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM HELPING TO PUSH THE FRIGID AIR OFF TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK UP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S MONDAY AFTERNOON AND UPPER 20S TO MID 30S
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM
BRINGS TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK
DOWN IN THE 20S. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES STAY IN PLACE
THROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK, THOUGH NOT THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
WE'LL SEE THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED AT ALL THREE TERMINALS THIS EVENING
AND WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AT 25 TO 35 KTS, BUT THESE SHOULD BEGIN
SUBSIDING AROUND 02Z TO 03Z. WINDS THEN BECOME WEST SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT UNDER 12 KTS, THEN SWITCH TO NORTH NORTHWEST BY THE
LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME BREEZY AT 18 TO 25 KTS AT
KOFK AND KOMA IN THE AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-031>034.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ078-088>093.
IA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING FOR IAZ043.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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