133
FXUS63 KOAX 100003
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
703 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH A HEAT ADVISORY
IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
- A NON-ZERO CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE AREA. BETTER CHANCES (50-70%) FOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR PRIMARILY AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO
DECATUR, NEBRASKA AFTER 7 PM. THESE WILL LIKELY BECOME SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
- MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, AND MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL,
STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
19Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LONGWAVE H5 TROF OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS, WHILE RIDGING DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. THE SOUTHWESTERLY H8 FLOW HAS LED TO CONTINUED WAA
AND INCREASED MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TDS REMAIN
MUGGY AT THIS HOUR, RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S RESULTING IN
A RATHER UNCOMFORTABLE AIR MASS. AS HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S
TODAY, EXPECT HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH THE 100F RANGE. WHILE SOME
LOW STRATUS IS SEEN MOVING EAST NORTHEAST NEAR LINCOLN, SOME
THINNING IN CLOUD COVER IS OBSERVED. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND WITH THIS BEING ONE OF THE FIRST HEAT WAVES
OF THE YEAR, HAVE MAINTAINED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE AREA THROUGH
02Z.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAT, THE INCREASINGLY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL PROVIDE FUEL FOR OUR SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SFC LOW
CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN WY DEEPENING AND TRACKING EAST, WHILE A
DRYLINE/SFC FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE
ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE APPEARS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ALL HAZARDS. ABUNDANT SFC BASED
INSTABILITY OF 3,000 TO 4,000 J/KG OF CAPE WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN
IS SEEN FROM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, AND 0-8 KM BULK SHEAR SPANNING
THE DEPTH OF THE CAPE PROFILE RANGES AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS. THIS
ENVIRONMENT IS SUGGESTIVE OF SUPERCELL FORMATION, BUT A FEW
QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING HOW CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE/DEVELOP.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS A FEW DISCREPANCIES ON HOW THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD PLAY OUT. CAMS LIKE THE NAM 4KM NEST
SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR STORMS FIRING AS EARLY AS 20Z WELL
AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE/FRONT ALONG THE FRINGES OF OUR CWA, WHILE
OTHER CAMS SUGGEST SOME GENERAL LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY.
SHOULD AN UPDRAFT DEVELOP AND BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ITSELF, IT WILL
LIKELY BECOME SEVERE WITH ALL HAZARDS ON THE TABLE. THE VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8 DEG C/KM WILL RESULT IN VERY LARGE HAIL
IN ADDITION TO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. LOW LEVEL CURVATURE
OBSERVED IN HODOGRAPHS ALONG WITH 0-3 KM AND 0-1 KM SRH WELL
ABOVE 200 M2/S2 SUGGESTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TORNADOES.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO OCCURRING REMAINS RATHER LOW GIVEN
CURRENT CAM SOLUTIONS NOT REALLY LATCHING ON TO THIS SCENARIO.
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED AFTER 00Z AS
INITIAL, DISCRETE CONVECTION MERGES INTO AN MCS ACROSS CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. THE MCS WILL BRING MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT (75+ MPH
GUSTS) OVER WESTERN INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINEAR FEATURE AND
REMAIN DISCRETE, THESE WILL LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES GIVEN THE ALREADY
MENTIONED FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL CURVATURE/SRH AS THE H8 LLJ
STRENGTHENS.
FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE, POPS REMAIN AT 15 TO 30% BY AROUND 00Z
OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN BORDER AREA WITH FSD, WHILE CHANCES RAMP UP TO
50 TO 70% FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO
DECATUR, NEBRASKA. AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3 OF 5) OF SEVERE WEATHER
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHILE A SLIGHT
RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) IS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AT ABOUT A 20 TO 40% CHANCE.
AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY, THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE
DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS WHERE SOME MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON (15-30%). THESE
SHOULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST. HIGHS WILL REMAIN WARM IN THE LOW TO MID
90S WITH HEAT INDICES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MAINLY OVER FAR
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA. CAM GUIDANCE SIGNALS MORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING INTO A LINE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, AFTER 00Z. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND ARE
DISCUSSED BELOW.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MORE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE NOSE OF AN H8 LLJ. IN ADDITION TO SOME
LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS, LIKELY WILL SEE SOME HEAVY
RAIN/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS PLAY OUT. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS APPROACHING
4000M WITH PWAT VALUES OF 2 INCHES (WELL ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE)
SHOULD LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
ON WHERE EXACTLY THE BEST FORCING/LOCATION FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL OCCUR SO EXPECT FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST. POPS
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN THE MORNING, PEAKING AT 60 TO 80%
BY 09Z AND TAPERING OFF BY THE NOON HOUR. TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY WITH LARGELY DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. STORM CHANCES (50-
70%) RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY, AND A FEW OF THESE COULD
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE DAY 5 SPC OUTLOOK SHOWING A 15%
CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS ANOTHER H5 TROF EJECTS FROM MT/WY SOUTHEAST. POPS
REMAIN AT 15 TO 30% THESE DAYS. EXPECT COOLER HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT TUE JUN 9 2026
KOFK: THE LATEST MODELS ARE SHOWING A POTENTIAL LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL,
MAINLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. THROUGH THAT TIME, STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND MAYBE SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED. ONCE THAT LINE MOVES THROUGH, A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 12Z, WITH POTENTIALLY A SECOND LINE MOVING
THROUGH CLOSER TO 09Z. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AFTER
06Z WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER SUNRISE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY BY 14Z. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL TOWARD KLNK AND KOMA, BUT KOFK IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO HAVE THAT DEVELOP.
KOMA: EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS THIS EVENING, WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A POTENTIAL LINE OF STORMS WHICH COULD DEVELOP STRONG WIND GUSTS
AND SOME HAIL. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z; HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN POTENTIAL IMPACTS
TO THE TERMINAL AS COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE. LLWS
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, WITH IMPACTS BETWEEN 09Z AND
11Z. ADDITIONAL IMPACTS DUE TO LLWS ARE ANTICIPATED SOUTH TOWARD
KLNK.
KLNK: EXPECT A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS BETWEEN 02Z AND
05Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. A FEW OF THESE MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE IF THEY ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER WHETHER THESE WILL MATERIALIZE AND IMPACT
KLNK. AFTER 04Z, LLWS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, IMPACTING THE
TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND 13Z. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE AROUND 12Z; HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED, SO THIS WAS OMITTED FROM PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR NOW.
SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY BY 13Z AND WESTERLY AFTER 17Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-015-
017-018-031>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-056-
069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...ANW
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page