751
FXUS63 KOAX 011617
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1017 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTRY SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY/MONDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SNOW, ICE, AND DRIZZLE TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80.
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TRENDING UPWARDS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK, KEEPING ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AS RAIN.
- A ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH RAIN
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED TO OUR WEST AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO PORTIONS OF BOONE AND PLATTE COUNTIES. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE EARLIER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
CWA. THE OTHER CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS THE WESTWARD EXPANSION
OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO JEFFERSON, GAGE AND JOHNSON
COUNTIES. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX TODAY/TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL RESULT IN SOME ICE
ACCUMULATION ON SURFACES, LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADS AND IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE. EXPECTED ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM A LIGHT GLAZE TO UP TO ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS WEAK TROUGHING CENTERED OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, WHILE ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
POURS IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS. HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO KEEP ITS HOLD OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GREAT
PLAINS, WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS USHERING IN TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S
ACROSS THE AREA, THAT ARE SET TO FURTHER DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS
AND LOWER 20S AT THEIR LOWEST POINT OVERNIGHT. THOUGH CURRENT
DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES, DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL COUNTERACT ANY COOLING TO REDUCE ANY FOG CHANCES TO
NEARLY ZERO.
BY SUNRISE TOMORROW, A SWATH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCOMING
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL KICK START OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WILL SERVE AS THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF
SNOW/ICE THAT MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHERN IOWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE FIND OURSELVES ON
THE NORTHERN END OF THE PRECIPITATION, WITH LOWER COVERAGE DUE
TO THE LIMITED NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE SHORTWAVE AND THUS HAVE
LOWER EXPECTATIONS FOR ANY SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS. OVERALL QPF
WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF THE MODELS HAS INCREASED, BUT A MESSY
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CUT DOWN ON WHAT ACTUALLY PILES UP AT
THE SURFACE, AS THAT WAA ADVECTION STRENGTHENS TO PUSH TEMPS TO
FREEZING AND PARTIALLY MELT SNOW ALOFT. EXPECT SUB-TEN-TO-ONE
SNOW RATIOS WHERE YOU DO SEE SNOW, WITH NEAR FREEZING TO JUST
BELOW TEMPERATURES (THAT ONLY COOL OVERNIGHT), MAKING ANY ICE
AND RE-FREEZING OF MELTED RAIN/SNOW/ICE THE BIGGEST THING TO BE
READY FOR. THE LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE SOME ICE IMPACTS
(50-70% CHANCE) HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT FOR THEM,
WHILE ANY FURTHER EXPANSION DEPENDING ON WHETHER OR NOT AMOUNTS
TREND UPWARDS.
AS THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN/WINTRY MIX SHUFFLES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY, MARGINAL LIFT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY, RESULTING IN AREAS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. LATEST RUNS OF THE SHORT-TERM MODELS HAVE
DISPARATE COVERAGE FOR THE DRIZZLE, LOWERING CONFIDENCE IN IT
OCCURRING (10-30% CHANCE). NONETHELESS, THE LIMITED COVERAGE,
DURATION, AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MEAN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
INEFFICIENT AND LIMIT IMPACTS TO THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
MONDAY AND BEYOND:
AS THE MORNING ROUNDS OUT INTO THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT THE DREARY
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY SLICKNESS MELTING
THANKS TO HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT PUSH INTO THE 40S IN ANTICIPATION
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THIS SYSTEM
REACHES THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, IT
WILL MEANDER SOUTHEAST AND HELP KEEP PROLONGED PRECIPITATION
FORECAST FOR THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT LINGERS, MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE A GOOD QUARTER TO HALF IN OF
RAINFALL THAT WOULD GO A LONG WAY TO HELP US WITH RECENT
DRYNESS. TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARDS THROUGH THIS STRETCH WITH
THE PROLONGED SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, PEAKING
THURSDAY AS A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN CHANCES LEAVE
US WITH SUNNY SKIES AND A THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE AREA. HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND, MODEL DIVERGENCE INCREASES, BUT WE DO HAVE
GOOD ODDS OF SEEING MORE BENEFICIAL PRECIPITATION HEADED FOR US
AS ANOTHER TROUGH SHEDS A SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA BEFORE
RETROGRADING TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2026
AN ISOLATED MVFR CEILING CLOUD DECK HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
VICINITY OF LNK AND OMA AT THIS TIME. THESE CLOUDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO PERSIST. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
PASSING WEATHER SYSTEM. EAST WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS
CEILINGS BEGIN TO DECREASE, THOUGH REMAINING VFR. LIGHT SNOW
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. LNK
HAS THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF MVFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AND PERIODS
OF MVFR CEILINGS DUE TO FALLING SNOW BEGINNING BETWEEN 18Z TO
20Z AND ENDING LATER THIS EVENING. OMA HAS A LOW (20%) CHANCE
OF SIMILAR AVIATION IMPACTS. OFK IS UNLIKELY TO ENCOUNTER ANY
SNOW. CEILINGS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. MVFR CEILINGS INITIALLY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD, BUT AN EVENTUAL REDUCTION TO IFR IS
FORECAST AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
MONDAY FOR NEZ088>093.
IA...NONE.
UPDATE...ANW
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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