133
FXUS63 KOAX 252308
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
508 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A 30-45% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
RAIN SNOW MIX IS EXPECTED ALONG A LINE FROM NEAR BLOOMFIELD TO
BANCROFT TO HARLAN, IA. SNOW IS EXPECTED NORTHEAST OF THIS
LINE, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.
- HIGHS WARM TO THE 50S TO LOW 60S THURSDAY WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS. THE BREEZY WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- WARM AND DRY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. A 50 TO 60% CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
SUNDAY AREAWIDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 148 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
18Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A LONGWAVE TROF ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATING THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOW TO WARM UP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO LINGERING MID TO HIGH BASED CLOUDS. HOWEVER, STRONG WAA
DRIVEN BY AN APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A BOOST
TO TEMPERATURES TODAY, WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER
50S NEAR AND SOUTH OF LINCOLN, WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE
LOW 40S ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THE EXTRA LIFT
PROVIDED BY THE WAA IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN APPROACHING H5 SHORTWAVE
TROF HAS LED TO A FEW WEAK PRECIP ECHOES SEEN ON RADAR. HOWEVER,
MUCH OF THIS IS STRUGGLING TO REACH THE GROUND PER LATEST METARS AND
ROAD CAMS. THE 18Z KOAX RAOB REVEALS A RATHER DEEP DRY LAYER FROM
JUST ABOVE H7 TO NEAR H9, HELPING EVAPORATE ANY PRECIP THAT TRIES TO
FALL.
AS THE WAVE APPROACHES OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, SHOULD
SEE BROAD ASCENT RESULT IN SOME THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. LATEST CAM
GUIDANCE DEVELOPS A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AFTER 20Z WHICH THEN OVERSPREADS THE AREA BY 00Z. FORECAST BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST TEMPERATURES REMAINING WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN
ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENT, WHILE AREAS ALONG
A LINE FROM NEAR BLOOMFIELD TO BANCROFT TO HARLAN, IA MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX, AND AREAS NORTHEAST OF THAT LINE SEE SNOW. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LATEST HREF
PROBABILITIES SUGGEST AT LEAST A 10 TO 30% CHANCE OF A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR MORE OF SNOWFALL FOR OUR FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST AREAS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE'LL HAVE TO
WORK WITH THOUGH, AS SOME SOUNDINGS STRUGGLE TO ACHIEVE DEEP
LAYER SATURATION, OR ACHIEVE IT VERY BRIEFLY.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, OUR SOUTHWESTERN SERVICE AREA COULD EXPERIENCE
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THOSE AREAS SHOW A
FEW 100 TO 150 J/KG OF MUCAPE WHICH ALIGNS WELL WITH THE SPC DAY 1
GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK. CAM GUIDANCE ALSO TRIES TO DEVELOP A FEW
CONVECTIVE LOOKING FEATURES AROUND THOSE AREAS. SO, DON'T BE
SURPRISED IF YOU HEAR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THOSE AREAS.
POPS AT THIS TIME REMAIN AT 30 TO 45% FOR MOST AREAS FROM 20Z TO
04Z, WHILE 50 TO 60% POPS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHWEST
AREAS FROM 00Z TO 02Z. LOWS TONIGHT COOL TO THE LOW TO MID 20S.
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM RAIN/SNOW COULD LEAD TO SLICK SPOTS ON AREA
ROADWAYS, SO PLAN FOR SOME EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION. A
FEW AREAS OF PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP TOO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
BUT CONSIDERABLE SPREAD STILL EXISTS AMONGST GUIDANCE SO HAVE LEFT
MENTIONS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.
THURSDAY WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE AREA AS HIGHS WARM
TO THE 50S TO LOW 60S OVER OUR FAR SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TOO
FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST, PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OWING
TO THE DECENT MIXING. THE DRY CONDITIONS AND WINDS WILL LEAD TO
AREAS OF VERY HIGH RANGELAND FIRE DANGER. WINDS SUBSIDE BY THE
EVENING HOURS WHILE LOWS REACH THE 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
/FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS WE HEAD TOWARD FRIDAY, FORECAST HIGHS REACH THE MID 60S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH DRY CONDITIONS. SOME SPOTS NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER AREA COULD REACH THE UPPER 60S. ONCE AGAIN, AREAS OF VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND ALSO ALONG
THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER AREA.
FOR THE WEEKEND, WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES AND ALLOWS A FEW
DISTURBANCES TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE ON
SATURDAY APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF THE AREA KEEPING US DRY, WHILE
SUNDAY A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. LATEST NBM POPS
SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF 50 TO 60% AREAWIDE CHANCES FOR SNOW.
ACCUMULATIONS PER 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR 3 INCHES OR MORE
OF SNOW RANGE FROM 30 TO 40% PER GEFS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80
CORRIDOR, WHILE BOTH THE CANADIAN AND EURO ENSEMBLES ARE MORE TAMED
IN THEIR OUTPUT WITH 10 TO 20% CHANCES FOR 3 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW.
REGARDLESS, WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS DISTURBANCE GIVEN A 20
TO 30% CHANCE FOR MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
COOL SATURDAY TO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS, WHILE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S
ARE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY.
A BRIEF BREAK IN POPS IS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY BUT IS SHORT LIVED AS
MORE H5 DISTURBANCES TRACK EAST WITHIN A MORE ZONAL FLOW MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGHS MONDAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S WHILE TUESDAY SEES
A BRIEF WARM UP IN THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDINESS DECREASING OVERNIGHT. A
SMALL AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PASS BETWEEN KOMA AND KLNK OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SPRINKLES AT
THOSE LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT EAST OR SOUTHEAST WINDS SWITCH
TO WEST OR NORTHWEST THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 12-14
KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...MEAD
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