552
FXUS63 KOAX 250544
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1244 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IS OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
- EXPECT VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGHS REACH INTO THE 90S TO LOW 100S EACH DAY AND HEAT INDEX
VALUES APPROACHING 105.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LAST INTO NEXT WEEK.
EVENING TO OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2026
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS LED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA. FURTHER TO THE EAST, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH A FEW
SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, ONLY FALLING INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SEES A LARGELY STALLED FRONT FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UP INTO
THE MIDWEST. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP TO OUR
NORTH. THIS RESULTS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY RANGING
FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP, BUT WITH GREATEST FORCING
TO OUR SOUTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITTING TO OUR NORTH,
COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW (20-40%
CHANCE) FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
(50-70%) ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD WITH CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH MORE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO PUSH EAST OF THE REGION BY
FRIDAY EVENING AS TEMPERATURES WARM SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 70S.
A PATTERN SHIFT ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND AS MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. THE
HEAT HOLDS OFF ON SATURDAY WITH 80S CURRENTLY EXPECTED, BUT THE
SAME CAN NOT BE SAID ON SUNDAY. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
OVERSPREADS THE REGION BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THIS PATTERN
SHOULD LARGELY HOLD INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
PUSH WELL INTO 90S WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. THIS COMBINATION RESULTS IN HEAT INDICES IN THE LOW
100S FOR MOST OF THE AREA, LIKELY APPROACHING 105 FOR SOME.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL HEAT
PRODUCTS IN FUTURE FORECASTS. HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE WORST
OF THE HEAT SUBSIDES, BUT THIS ONLY SHAVES A FEW DEGREES OFF
OUR TEMPERATURES. THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE WILL BE THE RETURN
OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AS TROUGHS ROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE, EVENING AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM SYSTEMS MAY DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST AND PUSH THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO SAY HOW WIDESPREAD THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE OR IF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT AS A REMINDER SEVERE WEATHER
SEASON IS NOT OVER JUST YET, SO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CEILINGS
GENERALLY AROUND 5000-8000 FT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH TO START THE PERIOD, BUT WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY REMAINING UNDER 10 KTS. THE MAIN THING TO WATCH WILL
BE SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM POTENTIAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
LNK WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SHOWERS TO START THE PERIOD, THOUGH
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACT OUTSIDE OF SOME BRIEF WIND SHIFTS.
SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AROUND 14-15Z AND
LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD. HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR IMPACTS LOOK TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES WITH
SEVERAL MODELS SUGGESTING MOST AREAS STAY DRY, BUT CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF TS AND VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS. FOR NOW, LEFT OUT ANY MENTION, BUT TRENDS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CA
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