018
FXUS63 KOAX 091142
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
542 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A BRIEF WARMUP IS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS WARMING
INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
- STRONG WINDS LIKELY (80%) TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH.
- SNOW CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY (20-30%), FOLLOWED
BY A RETURN OF COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 430 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
THE UPPER PATTERN HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE THIS WEEK AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MUCH THE SAME OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. A
STANDING WAVE'S RIDGE AXIS HAS SET UP ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS STREAKING TOWARD THE
EASTERN CONUS'S GENERAL TROFING.
AT THE SURFACE, WE CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPS
WITH MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF NEBRASKA AND MID-20S ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS YET TO PASS. WESTERLY WINDS OF
ONLY ABOUT 5 KNOTS ARE TRYING TO SCOUR OUT THE ARCTIC AIR IN
PLACE OVER THE CORN BELT. IT'S TEDIOUS WORK. VALLEY'S LOW OF 20F
ON MONDAY WAS SET AT 12:14AM. IT TOOK PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AND MOST OF TWENTY-FOUR HOURS TO DRIVE TEMPS UP TO 33
DEGREES BY 11:56PM... WHICH WAS THE DAY'S ZENITH. THE DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD FOG,
HOPEFULLY HOLDING IT OFF FOR ALL BUT SHELTERED LOW-LYING SPOTS.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY WITH THE A MIX OF SUN AND
CLOUDS AND CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW. MAXT'S SHOULD RANGE FROM
NEAR 40 IN THE HARLAN, IA AREA TO JUST SHY OF 60 AT FAIRBURY, NE
AND JEFFERSON COUNTY. THE WARM TEMPS ARE USUALLY WELCOMED THIS
TIME OF YEAR, BUT THEY'RE ESPECIALLY APPRECIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT. THE SUN AND SEASONAL AND SUPER-
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUT A NICE CRUST ON ANY REMAINING
SNOWFALL AND PREVENT BLOWING AND LOFTING OF SNOW COVER.
TONIGHT
A SHORTWAVE ZIPPING THROUGH THE QUICK H5 FLOW BRINGS LIKELY POPS
TO MINNESOTA, THE DAKOTAS, AND PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA. BIGGEST IMPACTS FOR THIS FORECAST AREA WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. NBM CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE WIND SPEEDS. BELIEVE THE CAA ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WON'T
HAVE TROUBLE BUSTING UP THE PROGGED SHALLOW INVERSION AND SHOULD
MIX TO ALMOST 5KFT. MEAN VALUES OF MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGEST
GUST SPEEDS OF 50 MPH IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WITH SOME GUIDANCE
PUSHING WELL OVER 60 MPH. IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES, HAVE ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FROM 9PM TONIGHT TO 9AM
WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONSIDERED A HIGH WIND WARNING IN FAR
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, BUT IT IS BORDERLINE. WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED
TO SEE THE DAY SHIFT UPGRADE THAT ADVISORY WHEN WE SEE THE
WHITES OF THE WIND'S EYES. THE ADVISORY MAY BE A BIT TOO LONG
AS CONFIDENCE IS BEST IN THE HEART OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE CAA
IS MAXIMIZED AND THE SHORTWAVE AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. I
WOULND'T BE SURPRISED IF THE WINDS TAPERED QUICKLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE TEMP INVERSION.
THIS COULD HAPPEN BEFORE THE SUN COMES UP... ENDING THOSE WINDS
'PREMATURELY'.
HAVE ALSO ADDED A 10-15% CHANCE OF POST-FRONTAL SPRINKLES THIS
EVENING. THEY WON'T LAST LONG ENOUGH TO SEE THEM TURN TO SNOW.
EVENTUALLY, THOUGH, WE WILL FALL INTO THE TWENTIES AND LOW 30S.
THE REST OF THE WEEK
TEMPS WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY (30S) UNDER THE
CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY UPPER (AND SURFACE) FLOW. A 20-30%
CHANCE OF SNOW DEVELOPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE AREA IN A
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WARM AIR TRYING TO MAKE INROADS FROM THE
WEST. FEWER ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN BRINGING SNOW THIS FAR
SOUTH WITH THE PAST TWO GLOBAL MODEL RUNS. (POPS PEAK IN THE
30%S NOW INSTEAD OF THE 40%S).
CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS UPPER PATTERN MOSTLY UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH OCCASIONALLY SHARP TEMPERATURE
GRADIENTS DRAPED DIRECTLY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA OR AT LEAST
WITHIN AN AFTERNOON'S DRIVE. THIS PATTERN LEAVES THE FORECAST
WITH A GREATER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY THAN NORMAL. AN UNDETECTED
WIGGLE IN THE JET STREAM OR A STRONGER LEE CYCLONE, ETC COULD
HAVE A 20 DEGREE IMPACT. THE AREA COULD BE SUBJECT TO SNOW ON
ANY OF THESE DAYS WITH THIS BAROCLINICITY IN THE VICINITY. LET'S
HOPE THIS PATTERN RESOLVES ITSELF IN A CLEARER WAY. NOBODY
LIKES AN AMBIGUOUS FORECAST.
RIGHT NOW, SNOW CHANCES LOOK BEST (15-25%) OVER THE NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST TUE DEC 9 2025
HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING
WITH REASONABLE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BEGIN
PICKING UP SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BY MIDNIGHT,
THEY'LL BE GUSTING UP TO 40-55 MPH. WIND SPEEDS OF 60-80 MPH
WILL BE AT FL030 AT TIMES.
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ033-034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>032.
IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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