378
FXUS63 KOAX 131124
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
624 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2020
..UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2020
TODAY:
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT TODAY TO BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID
JULY DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 95 DEGREES TODAY.
WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70 DEGREES, HEAT
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA.
MONDAY OVERNIGHT:
THE RIDGE THAT MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL
HAVE ITS LAST HURRAH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS ATTENTION TURNS TO
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND TRACK EAST
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING. WITH CAPE VALUES OF
3000 J/KG THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO FIRE
ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, AND INCREASING LOW
LEVEL JET, ALONG WITH 40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL AID IN THE
STORMS INITIAL PROGRESSION EASTWARD. EXPECT STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE
AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER SUNSET ON MONDAY WITH
SEVERE WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARD. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY
SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE HINDERED IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY
A MODEST CAP SEEN IN MODELED SOUNDINGS AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WARM. WITH THAT SAID, EXPECT ANY SEVERE RISK TO BE LIMITED TO
AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO SIOUX CITY. DESPITE THE
DECREASING SEVERE RISK, STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY:
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY. ANY STORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW FAR SOUTH
THE COLD FRONT TRACKS MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ACT AS THE
FOCUS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW,
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE/KS AND
IA/MO BORDER. DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE QUITE A BIT. LOCATIONS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE A RARE JULY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S, WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR
90 DEGREES.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND:
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY STAY DRY UNTIL
THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE TOLERABLE
FOR JULY AND IN THE 80S. THURSDAY EVENING, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
PULSE THROUGH OUR NEAR ZONAL FLOW, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE
ROLLS THROUGH. HATE TO SAY IT BUT UNFORTUNATELY FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY LOOK LIKE THEY ARE GOING TO BE TOASTY. FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL
RETURNS TO THE LOW TO MID 90S. IF YOUR A COOL WEATHER FAN,
SATURDAY WONT BE YOUR DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
90S WITH HEAT INDICES OVER 100. IT WILL BE A GOOD DAY TO STAY
INSIDE. TEMPS WILL "COOL OFF" ON SUNDAY AND RETURN TO THE LOWER
90S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2020
VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS
BY 16-18Z. GUSTS DIMINISH BY 00Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE AT KOFK BY 03Z AND BEYOND. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT
STORMS WILL MAKE IT KLNK/KOMA AT THIS TIME, THUS DID NOT MENTION.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...DEWALD
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