764
FXUS63 KOAX 141107
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
607 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEK,
PARTICULARLY TUESDAY AND FRIDAY.
- THURSDAY WILL BE A DRYING DAY AS A RIDGE MOVES IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS.
- POSSIBLE TEMPERATURE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FOR THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECTED LOWS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 20S AND 30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT, LIFTING INTO
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY DAYBREAK
TUESDAY. TUESDAY MORNING, A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AS FAR NORTH AS
OMAHA/COUNCIL BLUFFS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE
80S BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE 70S TO THE NORTH OF IT. HEADING FURTHER
INTO THE DAY, THE FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT, NUDGING A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE NE/KS BORDER.
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000+ J/KG
AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000+ J/KG ARE EXPECTED. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE WARM FRONT DURING THE EVENING, A FEW OF WHICH MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR
TO BE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP.
THE SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD GO INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION TUESDAY AND REACHING SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH
ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA. POPS WILL DECREASE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST HEADING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW EXITS. A FEW ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY
DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE A DRY OUT DAY AS A RIDGE MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER THE BRIEF COOL DOWN (HIGHS IN THE 70S) ON
WEDNESDAY, WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD 80S
FOR HIGHS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY WILL BE A DAY TO WATCH AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE USHERING IN MUCH COOLER
AIR WITH WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE COLD FRONT REACHES AND THE TIMING OF
EVERYTHING. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS SET UP ARE EXPECTED,
WITH ALL HAZARDS POSSIBLE. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
IN SOME OF THE FORECAST DETAILS FOR THIS PERIOD, SO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL CHANGES.
COOLER AIR PUSHING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOLER
WEEKEND. SATURDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE IN THE 30S, WITH LOW 30S
EXPECTED FROM DAVID CITY TO THURSTON AND AREAS NORTH. THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS WILL WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO THE 50S. SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING WILL BE COLD ONCE AGAIN WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID-20S
TO THE MID-30S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER, BUT THINKING IT SHOULD STAY OUT OF OMA. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO HINT AT SOME 2000-3000 FT CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR
OMA AND LNK, BUT MAYBE MORESO FEW/SCT INSTEAD BKN NOW, SO VFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOW FAVORED THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS AT OFK WILL
REMAIN PERSISTENTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WITH PERHAPS A FEW
GUSTS OF 18 KTS. HOWEVER, THEY'LL BE MUCH MORE VARIABLE AT OMA
AND LNK, STARTING NORTHEAST AND TURNING CLOCKWISE BASICALLY
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. EXPECT SOUTHEASTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTELRY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LNK COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 20-25
KTS AT TIMES. FINALLY, STILL EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TONIGHT, LIKELY AFTER 03Z, BUT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THEY'LL BE SOMEWHAT HIT OR MISS, WITH AREAS NORTHWEST
AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES MORE LIKELY TO SEE ANYTHING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ078-088.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...CA
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