712
FXUS63 KOAX 142322
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
522 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN CONTINUES TODAY, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES (30-60%) NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND, TO THE 70S BY
TUESDAY.
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, AND SPAN THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
PERIODIC PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH COOLER, YET STILL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT
LIGHT RAIN PUSHED INTO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING, AND
STRUGGLED TO REACH THE SURFACE AS IT PROGRESSED NORTH. SIMILARLY,
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHICH YIELDED LITTLE MORE THAN A SPRINKLE MAKING
IT TO THE SURFACE, AFTER PASSING THROUGH A LAYER OF DRY AIR.
A BLANKET OF CLOUD COVER KEPT TEMPERATURES MILD ACROSS THE REGION
LAST NIGHT, WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 30S, AND A FEW LOCATIONS ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. BY NOON TODAY, MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAD
BOUNCED BACK INTO THE 50S.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY, AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS
KANSAS. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY 6 PM THIS EVENING. PATCHY FOG
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHERE RAIN FELL ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, A SUBTLE UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY, KEEPING US WARM AND DRY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO SPAN THE LOW TO MID 60S. DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAILING OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO
DIP TO 20-30% IN A FEW LOCATIONS. COMBINED WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES, THIS COULD LEAD TO A REGION OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
THANKFULLY, WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT, AT 5-10 MPH AND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH, WHICH SHOULD HELP MITIGATE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A SURGE OF EVEN WARMER AIR TUESDAY, WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S. BREEZIER SOUTH WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO
20 TO 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING
AN EVEN GREATER RISK FOR VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE AND RESULTING SURFACE LOW WILL
PASS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY, POTENTIALLY RESULTING IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS, THIS TIME PASSING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY, REACHING INTO THE
60S, WITH COOLER HIGHS IN THE 50S WHERE SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
LINGERS OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
EVEN DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS THAT MISS THE RAINFALL WILL LIKELY SEE AN
ADDITIONAL DAY OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER, WHERE WINDS GUST UP TO 20-
25 MPH AND MINIMUM RH BOTTOMS OUT AROUND 15-25%.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...
COOLER, MOIST AIR WON'T ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AS THE
MAIN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 40S AND 50S LATE THIS WEEK, WHICH IS STILL
10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BRING PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE REGION. COLD AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW
COULD TRANSITION RAIN OVER TO SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
FRIDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
BE OVER FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THIS
FAR OUT, MODEL CONSENSUS ON SYSTEM STRENGTH, LOCATION, AND TIMING
REMAINS TOO LOW TO NAIL DOWN ALL OF THE DETAILS JUST YET. STAY TUNED
TO FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES AS MODEL AGREEMENT INCREASES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
MVFR CIGS HAVE BROKEN UP ACROSS THE AREA, LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE ARE SOME STRATUS HANGING ALONG THE KS/MO STATE
LINES AT FL040. EXPECT THESE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH OVER THE
COURSE OF THE EVENING. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED IN THESE SAME AREAS
WITH VISIBILITY EXPECTED TO SLIP BELOW A MILE. KOMA IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN UNAFFECTED, BUT KLNK IS FORECAST TO FALL TO MVFR VIS
BY 11Z AND LIFR BY 13Z SUNDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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