424
FXUS63 KOAX 112321
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
521 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- 20-30% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT IN FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA. EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN, BUT A
FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.
- A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH MID
50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MID 60S TO NEAR 70 BY
TUESDAY.
- 20-40% CHANCE OF RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY
NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-80. EXPECT MORE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH NEXT
WEEK STARTING TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION IS LOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
PRETTY QUIET ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERING AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR
WEST. THERE WAS A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN EASTERN
WY THAT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ALONG THE SD/NE BORDER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE, WE'LL SEE SOME STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
TONIGHT WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME RESULTING QPF IN FAR
NORTHEAST NE/SOUTHEAST SD INTO WEST-CENTRAL IA. LOOKING AT MODEL
SOUNDINGS, THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT
SHOULD KEEP ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS LIGHT AND SPOTTY. FOR NOW,
HAVE CHANCES IN THE 15-30% RANGE WITH LIQUID AMOUNTS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. WE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
MOSTLY RAIN TO FALL, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING
IN AT TIMES.
MEAN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH
DAY THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY FRIDAY,
WIDESPREAD 60S BY SUNDAY, AND MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY
(PENDING PRECIP CHANCES, MORE BELOW). THAT SAID, A FAIRLY POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF CA WILL BE PUSHING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP
AND PUSHING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY. STILL
SOME SPREAD ON EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE ARE HINTS
THAT PRECIP ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WILL CLIP SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH CONSENSUS GIVING US A 20-40%
CHANCE OF RAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-80.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK, THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE
RIDGING WILL KEEP US DRY THROUGH MONDAY WHILE LARGER SCALE
TROUGHING STARTS TO APPROACH THE WEST COAST. GUIDANCE IS IN
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OFF THIS
LARGER TROUGH AND PUSH EAST EARLY IN THE WEEK, SPINNING UP A
SURFACE LOW AND POTENTIALLY BRINGING US SOME MORE PRECIP
CHANCES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT OF SPREAD ON TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS ENERGY, RANGING FROM HAVING THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING THEN,
TO HAVING THE LOW OVER MT AND ANY PRECIP STAYING NORTH OF OUR
AREA. LATER IN THE WEEK, THE MAIN TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL CONUS AND GIVE MAYBE A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP,
BUT AGAIN, THERE REMAINS A LOT OF SPREAD IN TIMING AND MOST
FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR PRECIP. SO BOTTOM LINE, GUIDANCE FAVORS
OFF AND ON PRECIP CHANCES NEXT WEEK, BEGINNING AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY (20- 30%), WITH HIGHER CHANCES LIKELY BEING LATER IN THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 501 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PASSING WEATHER
SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN CEILINGS OF 8-10 KFT THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO
REMAIN NORTH OF AREA TERMINALS. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CHEHAK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page