177
FXUS63 KOAX 171048
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
548 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
ALL SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
- COOLER AIR ARRIVES BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING
FOR MANY LOCATIONS. DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY. RELATIVELY WARM,
DRY, AND QUIET WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UNTIL OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1103 PM CDT THU APR 16 2026
AFTER A WARM, DRY, AND WINDY AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY, RAPID
MOISTURE RETURN HAS BEGUN. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO
CLIMB INTO THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE
THIS EVENING. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGHING AND A STRONG
40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE AS IT EJECTS INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP TO THE WEST AND MOVE INTO OUR AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THIS LOW PRESSURE,
PUSHING A COOLER AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. LATEST HIGH-RESOLUTION
FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED THE TREND OF A FASTER FRONT. IN
THIS EVENT, THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR ALL BUT SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IN TURN
LOWERS THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR OUR AREA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ANITICPATED NEAR THE FRONT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT THESE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. IF
ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN STRENGTHEN ENOUGH PRIOR TO THIS,
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER GRADUALLY FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 80S OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA DUE TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET AFTER SUNSET AS COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO
DECREASE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
BY THIS WEEKEND, THE MUCH COLDER AIRMASS REALLY SETS IN.
SATURDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED WITH
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN, TEMPERATURES MAY
ONLY REACH THE 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES
ARRIVE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS ANTICIPATED DUE TO LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES. SUNDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR MANY ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. THANKFULLY, THE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR
THE BEGINNING OF A WARMING TREND. WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES
DURING THE MORNING THIS WEEKEND, DAMAGE TO SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE POSSIBLE.
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK IS MARKED BY WARM, DRY, AND QUIET
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 70S TO
NEAR 80 ACROSS THE AREA BY MONDAY. DUE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING,
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE UNTIL AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME, OUR NEXT TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ANOTHER
COOLDOWN IS LIKELY TO FOLLOW LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
KOFK: VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING.
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION. EXPECT WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST
AFTER SUNRISE, INCREASING TO AROUND 20-25KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 35KTS. AT THIS TIME, STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL TODAY.
KOMA/KLNK: VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST AT THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO THE WEST AFTER
SUNRISE BEFORE BECOMING NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS AS
HIGH AS 30KTS. THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING LATE
THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT. WITH THE
CURRENT EXPECTED TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
TERMINALS, SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE LIMITED IF NON-
EXISTENT. AREAS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS WILL
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING,
WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...ANW
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