419
FXUS63 KOAX 150514
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1214 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CHANCE (15-35%) OF LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM BACK UP ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
- A COUPLE FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
WITH A 20-45% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TX WITH
AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S.
MEANWHILE, A PROMINENT, MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING ONTO THE
CENTRAL CA COAST. THE LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EAST
THROUGH THE SIERRA NEVADA TONIGHT, AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
WEDNESDAY, WHILE THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE SAME
GENERAL AREA. AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE NE-
KS BORDER AS OF 2 PM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH
OUR AREA THIS PERIOD, WITH A WARMER AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING TO THE NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE THIS AFTERNOON. THOSE SAME PROCESSES
WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE (15-35% POPS) OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE
NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT. AREAS OF POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG APPEAR
LIKELY TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN PARTS OF NORTHEAST NE. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE, WE'LL SEE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST NE TO LOWER 80S ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:
THE GREAT BASIN LOW MENTIONED ABOVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY, WITH A TRAILING MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PROGRESSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON
FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A PACIFIC FRONT/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LATTER MID-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. WE'LL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THE AIR
MASS SHOULD REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH (MINIMUM RH OF 35-45%) TO LIMIT
ANY FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS TO CORN AND BEAN FIELDS WHERE HARVEST
IS ONGOING.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY, WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (20-45% POPS) ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE A SEVERE-WEATHER RISK. THOSE
TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK:
THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING
THE MOVEMENT OF ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT TROUGH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
U.S. ON SATURDAY, IN TANDEM WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS
FORECAST UPDATE WILL INDICATE SMALL POPS (15-20%) IN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA AT THAT TIME. HOWEVER, VARIOUS
MODELS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ALONG/BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT, SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
UPDATES. THE SATURDAY TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE MS VALLEY
ON SUNDAY, WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE IS GROWING MODEL
SPREAD IN THE EVOLUTION OF ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S., WHICH LEADS TO GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN OUR FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL, WITH READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY (FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE) EXPECTED
TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO MID-MORNING. LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THESE RESTRICTIONS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
OMA AND LNK, BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG
WORKING IN (10-20% CHANCE). ALSO HAVE SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS OUT THERE THAT COULD CONTINUE TO POP UP
OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
ANYTHING HITTING A TAF SITE REMAINS LOW. OTHERWISE, LOWER CLOUDS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH EASTERLY WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AND
SPEEDS ON EITHER SIDE OF 10 KTS, WITH SOME GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS AT
OFK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ016-017-
030>032-042-043-050-065.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...CA
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