674
FXUS63 KOAX 261726
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1226 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
WEAKENING OVERNIGHT CONVECTION CONTINUED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, LEAVING US WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
RISING TEMPERATURES. BY NOON, MOST LOCATIONS HAD REACHED THE LOW
80S. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S
ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CHURN THROUGH THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE/VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL
BRANCH OFF OF THIS DISTURBANCE, CREATING A BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN COLORADO THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSOURI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TO THE NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY, ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA AND INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS WILL
LIKELY KEEP OUR MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION SHUNTED JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA, THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE WEST COAST LOW WILL TRY TO EBB EASTWARD ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
SHIFTING THE SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, BRINGING A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN
TO FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY.
THE LOW WILL FINALLY KICK NORTHEASTWARD THIS WEEKEND, BUT GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT DOES SO. RAIN CHANCES WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST
AREA AHEAD OF THE LOW, BUT REMAIN IN THE 15-40% RANGE, AS MODELS
REMAIN SPLIT ON WHETHER OR NOT RAIN REACHES US OR STAYS ON THE
FRINGES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN CURRENTLY
RESIDES OVER SOUTHEAST AND EAST/CENTRAL NEBRASKA, WITH A LESSER
CHANCE (15-20%) OVER WESTERN IOWA. OVERALL, SEVERE STORM CHANCES
APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME, DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY, POOR SHEAR
VECTORS, AND MEAGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING. SPC AND MACHINE LEARNING
PROBS SHARE A SIMILAR SENTIMENT WITH A LACK OF OUTLOOKS HIGHLIGHTING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT MODERATE INTO THE LOW 80S FOR THE WEEKEND
AND BEYOND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TODAY, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 15 TO 20 KTS. WIND SPEEDS DIP BELOW 12 KTS AFTER 00Z THIS
EVENING, AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...KG
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