752
FXUS63 KOAX 211118
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
518 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20 TO 30 MPH DEVELOP LATE THIS
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP INTO THE 50S THIS WEEK, WITH 60S
FORECAST FOR MANY BY THURSDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
THE COLD FRONT YESTERDAY MORNING HAS LONG SINCE MOVED OFF INTO THE
NORTHEAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING INTO IOWA, ALLOWING LIGHT
WINDS TO GRADUALLY SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. OTHER THAN SCATTERED HIGH CIRRUS, THE
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER TEENS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THESE
WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY THIS
AFTERNOON, INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HELP INITIATE A
WARMING TREND. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO BETWEEN 20 AND
30 MPH BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE AID OF THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS. IT IS GOING
TO BE DRY ACROSS THE REGION, WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE
25 TO 35 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA. HIGH FIRE DANGER IS
LIKELY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NEBRASKA, WITH VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
BY MONDAY, RIDGING TAKES HOLD OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, PUSHING THE JET
STREAM AND ANY ASSOCIATED WEATHER SYSTEMS INTO NORTH DAKOTA AND
CANADA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. UNDER THIS RIDGING, WELL-
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE
MOST LOCATIONS CLIMB 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH AFTERNOON
WITH RECORDS BEING CHALLENGED BY THURSDAY, CHRISTMAS DAY. AS IT
STANDS, 50S ARE FORECAST MOST AFTERNOONS WITH CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MANY LOCATIONS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSOURI RIVER HAVE A MEDIUM CHANCE OF SURPASSING 60 ON
CHRISTMAS DAY.SEVERAL RECORDS MAY END BEING BROKEN. BELOW IS THE
CURRENT FORECAST AND ASSOCIATED RECORDS FOR CHRISTMAS DAY.
OMAHA... FORECAST: 58 RECORD: 57 (1946)
LINCOLN... FORECAST: 64 RECORD: 65 (1889)
NORFOLK... FORECAST: 63 RECORD: 63 (1963)
NEEDLESS TO SAY, SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS ENJOYING THE WEATHER ON
CHRISTMAS IS HIGHLY ADVISED.
BY NEXT WEEKEND, A PATTERN SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED. WHILE SPECIFIC
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE WEST
COAST TOWARDS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WOULD OFFER AT LEAST A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND A POSSIBLE FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD
LESSEN THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM WEATHER, BUT THIS MAY BE LIMITED. A WEAK
FRONT WOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL EVEN AFTER THIS SYSTEM.
SNOW IS VERY UNLIKELY WITH THIS WARM WEATHER PATTERN AND ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD BE EXPECTED TO FALL AS RAIN AT THIS JUNCTURE. A
RETURN TO WINTER-LIKE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY UNTIL THE NEW
YEAR AT THIS RATE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2025
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RELATIVELY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE MID TO
LATE MORNING. WIND GUSTS MAY REACH UP TO AROUND 25 KTS BY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING, BUT LOW-LEVEL
WINDS REMAIN STRONG. LLWS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION BETWEEN
1500 TO 2000 FT AT ABOUT 45 KTS FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AFTER
SUNSET.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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