719  
FXUS63 KOAX 130454  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
1154 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- IF STORMS DEVELOP TODAY (20% CHANCE), THEY MAY BECOME SEVERE  
WITH AREAS OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THE MOST LIKELY  
TIME WOULD BE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 PM, NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM  
NIOBRARA TO WEST POINT TO COUNCIL BLUFFS.  
 
- IT WILL BE HOT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 ON THURSDAY, WITH HEAT  
INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 107. ADDITIONAL HOT CONDITIONS ARE  
LIKELY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHEN THE HEAT INDEX MAY ONCE  
AGAIN APPROACH 105.  
 
- THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR  
THUNDERSTORMS, THIS TIME GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. IF  
STORMS DEVELOP, THEY COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING  
WIND AND LARGE HAIL, MAINLY IN THE 3 PM TO 8 PM TIME FRAME.  
 
- DETAILS ON SPECIFIC TIMING AND LOCATION ARE NOT YET CLEAR, BUT  
THERE ARE DAILY STORM CHANCES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK WITH  
SEVERAL PERIODS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.  
 

 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024  
 
THROUGH TONIGHT:  
ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM THIS MORNING HAS PUSHED EAST AND  
DISSIPATED, LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME  
NORTHEAST NE. THERE IS A WEAK SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER NORTH  
CENTRAL NE WITH WARM SECTOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S AND  
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. A COOL  
FRONT...OR AT LEAST ZONE OF CONVERGENCE IS PUSHING SOUTH IN THE  
WAKE OF THE LOW PRESSURE. VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATES A SHALLOW  
CUMULUS FIELD EXTENDING FROM NEAR ALBION AND COLUMBUS TOWARD  
YANKTON WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DEEPER CLOUD GROWTH IN THAT YANKTON  
AREA AT 330 PM. THIS AREA IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH A MINIMUM IN  
INHIBITION AND MAXIMA IN CAPE, AS WELL AS BOUNDARY LAYER  
CONVERGENCE. WHILE THIS AIRMASS IS AT LEAST WEAKLY CAPPED AT THE  
MOMENT, THE FORECAST IS FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF FURTHER COOLING  
ALOFT TO FURTHER REDUCE THE CAP, POTENTIALLY ALLOWING FOR DEEP  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IF STORMS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA, THEY  
WOULD LIKELY QUICKLY INTENSIFY, AND MAY ORGANIZE INTO  
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SUPERCELLS GIVEN EFFECTIVE SHEAR GREATER  
THAN 40 KTS. CLOUD BASES ARE QUITE HIGH, SO LARGE HAIL WOULD BE  
A SOLID INITIAL HAZARD, WITH SOME POTENTIAL TO ORGANIZE A  
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING COLD POOL ALIGNED WITH THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR  
VECTORS, ESPECIALLY IF MULTIPLE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS CAN FORM IN  
CLOSE PROXIMITY. THIS WOULD PROMOTE MORE OF A WIND HAZARD IF IT  
UNFOLDS. NOW, WITH ALL OF THIS SAID, THERE IS PERHAPS AN EVEN  
STRONGER POTENTIAL FOR THE CAP TO HOLD WITH NO THUNDERSTORM  
DEVELOPMENT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS, BUT IS DICTATED BY ABILITY TO  
BREAK THE CAP.  
 
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY:  
THE COLD FRONT WILL VERY GRADUALLY SAG TO THE SOUTH OVER THE  
COURSE OF THE DAY, REACHING THE OMAHA METRO AREA AROUND 3 PM AND  
THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS AROUND 8 PM. THIS IS A BIT  
SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE. PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYER  
FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WHILE THE POST-FRONTAL FLOW IS FROM  
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. THIS RESULTS IN A BIT OF A MINIMAL  
AMOUNT OF CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER, THAT CONVERGENCE  
IS DEEP ENOUGH...AND PROBABLY STRONG ENOUGH...TO SUPPORT  
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS WE GET INTO MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ONE  
OF THE REASONS FOR THIS ANTICIPATION OF CONVECTION IS THAT THERE  
IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR MOISTURE POOLING IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH  
DEWPOINTS GREATER THAN 70 DEGREES AND AMPLE WARMING INTO THE  
MIDDLE OR EVEN UPPER 90S. THESE CONDITIONS SUPPORT SEVERAL HOURS  
OF HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 107 RANGE, AND HAVE PROMPTED  
ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE AREA SOUTH OF THE FRONT MOST  
LIKELY TO APPROACH THE 105 DEGREE RANGE. THIS WOULD ALSO RESULT  
IN A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO  
INHIBITION. THUS, AS LONG AS SOME AMOUNT OF PERSISTENT LIFT INTO  
THE LFC CAN OCCUR, STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP...AND THE FRONT  
APPEARS LIKELY TO HAVE SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR THIS. IF STORMS  
INDEED DEVELOP, DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR STORM  
ORGANIZATION INTO LINEAR SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS SOME SUPERCELL  
STRUCTURES. MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS SUPPORT THE IDEA OF  
UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT INTERACTIONS AMIDST ANY STORMS THAT FORM NEAR  
EACH-OTHER, AS THE FLOW IS GENERALLY ALONG THE BOUNDARY. LOW-  
LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS SUGGEST THAT SOME COLD POOL ORGANIZATION IS  
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION, SO SOME  
ORGANIZED WIND THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE. A BIT OF LOW-LEVEL  
STREAMWISE VORTICITY IN THE HODOGRAPH AMIDST THE EXTREME  
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS A TORNADO IS NOT TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE...BUT  
CLOUD BASES LOOK A BIT HIGH AND STORM MODE IS QUESTIONABLE SO  
TORNADOES ARE NOT A PRIMARY RISK FACTOR AT THIS TIME. ANY STORMS  
SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY TO MID EVENING, WITH  
COOLER AND DRIER AIR BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY  
BEHIND THE FRONT.  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:  
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY  
NIGHT. THIS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT (THURSDAY'S) FRONT BACK NORTH  
INTO OUR REGION AS A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF  
MOISTURE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM, AND HIGH PLAINS  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY BY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCALLY, IT  
APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL NOT QUITE MAKE IT THIS FAR  
NORTHEAST, BUT THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY AND RIDE OVER  
THE FRONT INTO OUR AREA. EXPECT RATHER IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE  
TRANSPORT, AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR A CONVECTIVELY  
REINFORCED COLD POOL OVER SOME PORTION OF NEBRASKA TO INTERACT  
WITH THAT LOW LEVEL JET AND MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. THESE  
INGREDIENTS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN  
THE AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A  
SMALL CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM OR TWO, SEEMINGLY IN THE FORM OF  
DAMAGING WIND OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA IF AN MCS  
SURGES EAST BEFORE RUNNING OUT OF INSTABILITY.  
 
THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TO PROGRESS NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND IT  
APPEARS LIKELY (STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT) THAT A COOL FRONT WILL  
BE DRAPED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL  
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY  
IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE INSTABILITY ON  
PERHAPS JUST ENOUGH WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES.  
SO, THIS IS ANOTHER PERIOD TO WATCH FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.  
 
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK:  
THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE HOT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ONCE AGAIN  
LIKELY TO TOP 100 AND PERHAPS 105. THIS SAME PESKY FRONTAL  
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH, MAINTAINING  
AT LEAST SOME FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WHILE  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BRINGS INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF HEIGHT  
FALLS AND ENHANCED WIND FIELDS TO SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS. THE  
DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS REGARDING THE STORMS THOUGH, AND JUST  
DON'T FEEL ESPECIALLY GREAT ABOUT POINTING OUT ANY ONE SPECIFIC  
DAY OR TIME WHEN SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL IS ESPECIALLY GREAT. THE  
STRONGEST FORCING APPEARS TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY, BUT STORM  
POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND SPEED OF THE ATTACHED COOL  
FRONT.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2024  
 
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. LLWS AT THE 1500-2000 FT  
AGL LEVEL IS EXPECTED AT KOMA AND KLNK OVERNIGHT. A BOUNDARY  
MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL SHIFT  
WINDS CLOCKWISE FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE  
FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE  
AFTER SUNRISE. A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO SOUTHEAST  
NEBRASKA DURING THE 21-00Z TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS  
TIME THAT STORMS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR NEZ068-  
088>093.  
IA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR IAZ090-091.  
 

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...BARJENBRUCH  
AVIATION...WOOD  
 
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