767
FXUS63 KOAX 251006
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
506 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S, WHILE A FEW 90S ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER. VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
- VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 25
TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS OF 35 MPH. THERE IS A 15 TO 20% CHANCE FOR
SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
- SLIGHT 15 TO 20% CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF I-80
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES REBOUND FOR THE WEEKEND
WITH VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER EXPECTED, PARTICULARLY
SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT TUE MAR 24 2026
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
04Z GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS AN AREA OF BROKEN MID TO
HIGH BASED CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES REMAIN MILD AND
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WITH LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
THE ONGOING H8 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING INTO MUCH OF TODAY. AS A RESULT, SHOULD
SEE HIGHS WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 80S AREAWIDE, WHILE LOCATIONS ALONG
THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WARM TO THE LOW 90S UNDER PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES. WHILE WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10-15 MPH OR LESS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, THE WARM TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH RH OF 17 TO 25% WILL
RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS
SHIFT DIRECTION TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, BUT STILL REMAIN AT 10-15 MPH. FOR
TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE 50S.
THURSDAY WILL SEE AN H5 DISTURBANCE MOVE THROUGH ALONG WITH A SFC
COLD FRONT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA,
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE LOW TO MID 80S, WHILE COOLER
HIGHS IN UPPER 60S ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE ACCOMPANYING
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD HELP STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
LET US TAP INTO A 30 TO 40KT CORRIDOR OF WINDS ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT. SO, EXPECT NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF
35 MPH. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SHOULD SEE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO
20 MPH WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. WHILE MINIMUM RH WILL BE
HIGHER AT 25 TO 30% COMPARED TO TODAY, SHOULD STILL SEE AN AREAWIDE
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER THREAT RESULTING FROM THE WINDS AND THE CURED
FUELS. IT'S WORTH NOTING TOO THAT CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED OVER THE
AREA IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WHICH COULD AFFECT HOW DEEP
WE MIX/ARE ABLE TO DRY OUT.
ALSO, LIFT SEEN MAINLY ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD AFFECT THE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS SUGGEST ONLY
MID LEVEL SATURATION WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, ALTHOUGH SOME MUCAPE OF
100-200 J/KG IS SEEN AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME, THE
BULK OF CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS. FOR THIS
FORECAST UPDATE, HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE DRY SOLUTION PER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS, SO HAVE CUT BACK ON NBM POPS AND LEFT AT 15 TO
20% CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
NEAR ALBION TO WAYNE FOR THURSDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. 15 TO
30% POPS LINGER OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOWS COOL TO THE MID 20S IN OUR FAR NORTH, WHILE STAYING
NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
LONG TERM
/FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING 15 TO 25% POPS FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS BORDER AS AN H5 IMPULSE
MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY, WILL SEE SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVE IN WHICH SHOULD HELP GRADUALLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS ONLY WARM TO THE 50S DUE TO THE COOLER AIR
IN PLACE.
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST BY SATURDAY, HELPING
SWITCH WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP IN
THE VICINITY OF A 30 TO 35 KT LLJ. SO, EXPECT A GUSTY DAY WITH 20 TO
25 MPH WINDS AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. HIGHS WARM TO THE 60S, AND
COMBINED WITH RH OF 15 TO 20%, WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE AREAWIDE VERY
HIGH TO EVEN EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES FOR SUNDAY AS 1000-500 MB THICKNESSES
INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID
70S TO LOW 80S IN OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS
GUSTY COMPARED TO SATURDAY BUT SHOULD STILL SEE THE VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER CONTINUE GIVEN THE LINGERING BREEZINESS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE CONTINUED WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
BOTH DAYS AREAWIDE. AN ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS THOUGH STARTING EARLY
MONDAY AS THE H5 RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
SEVERAL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA,
RESULTING IN POPS OF 30 TO 50% FOR RAIN AND THUNDER LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 502 AM CDT WED MAR 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES AS 35-42
KT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MOVE INTO FL014. LLWS IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY 25/14Z. SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
VEER TO WESTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON AND NORTHWESTERLY BY THE
EVENING. A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
WORK INTO KOMA AND KLNK THROUGH THE LATE MORNING, GRADUALLY
CALMING UNDER 12 KTS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW MID- AND HIGH-
LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS BY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...WOOD
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