433
FXUS63 KOAX 130511
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1211 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST THE UPCOMING
WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL BE AROUND 100 AT TIMES.
- EXPECT OCCASIONAL MORNING PATCHY FOG THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BELOW 5% THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2026
TONIGHT:
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A VOID OF ACTIVITY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, GUARDED BY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WHILE
A DOMINANT MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHUFFLE AWAY ANY
SHORTWAVES TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS HAVE RECOVERED
ONCE AGAIN THIS EVENING WITH VALUES PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S, REMAINING HIGHER THAN MOST GUIDANCE AND ONCE AGAIN
THAT PATCHY FOG MAY BE MORE LIKELY THAN MODELS FORECAST IT TO
BE. WITH LOW TEMPERATURE VALUES FORECAST TO DIP INTO THE MID
60S, THERE ISN'T AS MUCH ROOM TO COOL BELOW THE AFTERNOON
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES IN ADDITION TO SLIGHTLY WINDIER
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. AS OF NOW, THE AREAS MOST
LIKELY TO SEE FOG (MOSTLY AFTER 3 AM) WOULD BE VALLEYS IN
SOUTHWEST IOWA AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE DEWPOINT VALUES
CURRENTLY SIT IN THE 70S.
MONDAY AND BEYOND:
THE GENERAL FORECAST FOR THE WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK FOR INCREASING
HEAT, DRIVEN BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL SEE
LITTLE TO CHALLENGE IT AND INCUR A PATTERN CHANGE. AN IMPRESSIVE LOW-
LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS PLACED FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS AND DAKOTAS, AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE REMAINS BROAD
BUT DECREASES IN AMPLITUDE. HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL SEE A DAILY 2-3 DEGREE INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY,
WHERE HIGHS IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 90S AND NEAR 100 DEGREES HOLD
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. OF EQUAL IMPORTANCE, TEMPERATURE
RELIEF WILL BE HARD TO COME BY OVERNIGHT, AS LOWS FRIDAY ONWARD
STRUGGLE TO REACH 75 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST IOWA, MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR THOSE OUTDOORS OR
WITHOUT AIR CONDITIONING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO THINGS
COULD LEAD TO LARGER HEAT STRESS FOR THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR
URBAN AREAS, AND WE'RE INCREASING IN CONFIDENCE THAT WE MAY
ISSUE SOME SORT OF ADVISORY FOR FRIDAY/SATURDAY (30-40% CHANCE).
TAKING A LOOK AT PRECIPITATION CHANCES, THE CONTINUED STRENGTH OF
THE RIDGING PATTERN AND LACK OF DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DISAPPOINT THOSE LOOKING FOR RAIN. WE'LL HAVE TO RELY ON STORMS (OR
REMNANTS THERE OF) THAT WOULD INITIATE OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AND
DRIFT INTO THE AREA. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT WE
COULD SEE NORTHWESTWARD-MOVING SHOWERS IN THE AREA AS STORMS ARE
STEERED BY THE CLOCKWISE COLUMNAR FLOW LATE THIS WEEK, BUT
CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE BETTER (15-25% CHANCE) LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE DRAGS A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA. OTHER THAN THAT, THE BEST BET FOR ANY
WETNESS AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG THAT WILL RELY ON COOLING PAST THE PREVIOUS
AFTERNOONS' DEWPOINTS AND QUIET WINDS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. VERY PATCHY FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR MOST AREA TERMINALS, BUT
THERE IS A LOW (25%) CHANCE OF BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IF
FOG DOES DEVELOP. SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE DURING MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH MODEST WIND SPEED INCREASES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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