525
FXUS63 KOAX 031745
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1245 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE BIG BLUE RIVER AND TURKEY CREEK.
- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, A SOUTH BREEZE, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S WILL DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY.
- PLEASANT, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH A SLIGHT WARMING TREND BY MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE BIG BLUE AND TURKEY CREEK,
WITH THE CREST NOW HAVING PASSED DOWNSTREAM OF CRETE BUT STILL
UPSTREAM OF BEATRICE. THE MISSOURI RIVER CONTINUES TO FALL AS
THE CREST HAS MOVED SOUTH OF RULO.
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN FEATURES RATHER ZONAL FLOW
OVERHEAD WITH SLIGHT RIDGING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND
NOSING UP THE WEST COAST. A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA
TODAY. THIS TROUGH, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AND
TRAILING COOL FRONT, HAVE PRODUCED AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS EASTERN SD INTO MN. THIS PRECIPITATION IS MOVING OFF TO
THE EAST, AND WHILE THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
THIS AFTERNOON, PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY THIS FAR SOUTH AS THE
SUB-CLOUD LAYER IS VERY DRY. THAT SAID, THERE COULD BE A
SPRINKLE OR TWO, BUT MINIMAL IMPACT OVERALL. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL DECREASE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, AND WILL TURN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AS THE COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S THROUGH MONDAY, AND A BIT WARMER AFTER THAT AS THE
WESTERN RIDGING BUILDS A BIT MORE INTO OUR REGION. WE'LL KEEP AN
EYE ON THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME FOR SOME POTENTIAL SHOWERS
IN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME OF A WEAK STORM SYSTEM, BUT AS OF
NOW THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 7+ DAYS IS A DRY ONE, WITH A
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IN A LONGER WAVE TROUGH POTENTIALLY
BRINGING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION AS WE MOVE INTO
THE DAY 9-11 PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE A BIT MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, AND WILL TURN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TODAY, BUT WILL REMAIN
LIGHT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
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