515
FXUS63 KOAX 241029
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
529 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES HIGHEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS (75-90%). RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH
1 TO 2 INCHES.
- COOL WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF
WARMER, DRY STRETCH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAIN ON
ALREADY SATURATED SOIL COULD LEAD TO A FLOODING THREAT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WE HAD OUR ONE NICE, PLEASANT DAY WITH AFTERNOON SUNSHINE BOOSTING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER, GLOOMY WEATHER IS SET TO TO RETURN THE
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT AND LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING FROM
WEST, AND WILL REIGNITE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WHILE A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN WEAK AT BEST THROUGH SATURDAY. SUBSTANTIAL GULF MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, WITH PWATS RISING TO 1.5"-2". LREF
PROBS ESTIMATE A 50-70% CHANCE OF SEEING MORE THAN 1.5" THROUGH
SATURDAY AND A 30-45% CHANCE OF SEEING GREATER THAN 2" OF RAIN.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WIND DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER CLEARS OUT OF THE REGION. IF
AFTERNOON SUN MANAGES TO PEAK THROUGH, HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH INTO
THE MID 70S. HOWEVER IF CLOUD COVER PREVAILS, LOOK TO TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...
ANOTHER BRIEF RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY, GIVING US
ANOTHER GLIMPSE OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REACH THE 70S.
MIDLEVEL THERMAL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 70S ON MONDAY, BEFORE
SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN TO THE REGION. LONGER RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
THE REGION WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
POTENTIALLY SUPPLEMENTED BY MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE POLO OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. GIVEN THE WELL-SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS
AND POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY, ABUNDANT RAINFALL, AREAS
OF FLOODING MAY VERY WELL BE A POSSIBILITY. IN ADDITION TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN, A MORE UNSTABLE AND SHEARED AIR MASS COULD
LEAD TO THE FORMATION OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, AS IS HIGHLIGHTED
BY A 5-10% PROBABILITY IN MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
ONE WAVE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS HAS MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT, WITH ANOTHER PUSH COMING FROM CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THAT WILL BRING MVFR CONDITIONS TO ALL THREE TAF SITES
BY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE LOWEST CEILINGS TO MOVE INTO KOFK
THIS AFTERNOON IN IFR TERRITORY, WORSENING OVERNIGHT TO LIFR AS
DRIZZLE MOVES IN WITH THE RAIN AND CEILINGS LOWER. AS THE AREAS
OF MODERATE RAIN MOVE IN, VISIBILITIES WILL DROP BELOW 6SM, AND
WILL LIKELY HOVER BETWEEN 4 AND 5 MILS MOST OF THE TIME WITH A
FEW DROPS TO 2 MILES AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ARE SET TO CONTINUE WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STAY
BELOW 10 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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