504
FXUS63 KOAX 220317
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1017 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING.
- PERIODIC CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS (5-14%) EXISTS
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEKEND.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S AND LOWS FROM THE MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS WARM INTO THE 80S TO
LOW 90S NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1017 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. WE'VE WATCHED THE FIRST ROUND OF
SHOWERS MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND FALL APART, AND THE
SECOND ROUND SHIFTED SOUTH AND IS FALLING APART AS IT MOVES
ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OTHER THAN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS STILL
LINGERING IN THE AREA NORTH, THE REST OF OUR AREA IS QUIET THIS
EVENING. LOOKING AT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY FOR THE
BROADER VIEW, WE SEE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES LEADING TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING.
MONDAY WE START TO SEE HEIGHTS BUILD OUT TO OUR WEST WITH A
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WE'LL SEE THE
SUBTROPICAL JET SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA, LEADING TO
ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. CLOUDS BREAKING UP THROUGH THE DAY
WILL HELP US WARM UP INTO THE MID 70S BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY WE SEE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
MANITOBA. GUIDANCE VARIES ON HOW MUCH WE DESTABILIZE TUESDAY DUE
TO SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MAY LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT 50-55KT BULK SHEAR OVER THE REGION COULD
LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAIN IF WE CAN GENERATE SOME CAPE.
MORE WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THESE
WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER WITH HIGHS STAYING IN THE
MID 70S. GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WE SEE A STRONG TROUGH MOVE
INTO THE PACNW HELP TO PUSH THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EASTWARD.
THIS WILL CAUSE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GUIDANCE ALSO
SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2026
WE'VE SEEING CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT TO 3500-4000FT OVER THE LAST
FEW HOURS AND BECOME BROKEN IN A FEW SPOTS. WINDS ARE GENERALLY
OUT OF THE EAST OR ENE. A LINE OF SHOWERS IS MOVING INTO KOFK
AROUND 00Z WITH SOME POTENTIAL (30%) FOR ANOTHER ROUND LATER
AROUND 06-08Z. NOT ANTICIPATING ANY LIGHTNING WITH ANY OF THESE
SHOWERS. THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE MVFR CIGS MOVE BACK INTO KOFK
AROUND 05-07Z (80% CHANCE), WHILE ONLY A 40% CHANCE AT KLNK AND
10% CHANCE AT KOMA. ANY LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BREAK UP BY 15Z MONDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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