746
FXUS63 KOAX 280416
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1116 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, GRADUALLY
DISSIPATING IN FAVOR OF GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH A LOW-
END SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPING AFTER 6 PM FROM WESTERN IOWA TO
TO NORTHEAST. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN FILL IN EARLY FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
- STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AS A FEW MID/UPPER VORTICITY MAXIMA PIVOT THROUGH
THE FLOW. TO THE EAST, MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTO EASTERN CONUS
CONTINUES SOMEWHAT LANGUID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. NIGHTTIME CLOUD
PHASE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS THE LOWER CLOUDS THAT HOLD AREAS OF
DRIZZLE, AND AREAS OF CLEARING THAT LET THE EARLY EVENING
RADIATIONAL COOLING RESULT IN SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP, PRIMARILY
NEAR NEBRASKA CITY AND POINTS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO WEST-
CENTRAL IOWA. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY SLOW TO CATCH ON TO THE
LOWER VISIBILITIES, WITH INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION HELPING
TO STIR UP A BIT MORE LIFT FOR INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
POTENTIALLY SOME WARMING. SOME AREAS OF FOG MAY PERSIST THROUGH
THE INITIAL HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT THIS AREA COULD
DRIFT NORTHEAST AS CLOUD COVER BUILDS BACK IN AND THE AREAS OF
CLEARING STAY AHEAD OF IT. THAT BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS
ALSO HELPED SOME LIGHTER RETURNS ON RADAR DEVELOP NEAR LINCOLN
AND POINTS NORTH, LARGELY IN THE FORM OF DRIZZLE.
BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW, MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OUTSIDE CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL MIX OUT, WITH SWIFT SOUTHERLY FLOW ARRIVING
TO THE AREA AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
ANTICIPATION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
AREA. WINDS GUSTING TO 25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH A BUMP IN SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, KEEPING US WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE-WISE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. LINGERING MOISTURE IS ALSO AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE
IMPINGING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH, WORKING
WITH THE FRONTAL LIFT AND MID/UPPER HEIGHT FALLS TO RESULT IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, IOWA,
AND MINNESOTA. THE LIVELY KINEMATICS PAIR WITH THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY TO CREATE A LIMITED SEVERE STORM THREAT. THE OVERLAP OF
THE BEST INSTABILITY AND FORCING REMAINS LARGELY NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA, BUT WE'RE STILL UNDER THE GUN OF A FEW WEAKER SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT. IF WE
DO SEE A STORM REACH HIGHER INTENSITIES, DAMAGING HAIL AND WIND ARE
THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY TORNADO THREAT REMAINING TO THE
NORTHEAST WHERE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT TRACK.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER DAY FULL OF TEMPERATURE CONTRAST BETWEEN
NORTHEAST NE AND SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA IS ON TAP, THOUGH THE
WIND WILL KEEP MANY FROM SPENDING A TON OF TIME ENJOYING TIME
OUTSIDE.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MODERATES TEMPERATURES INTO
THURSDAY, LEAVING THE STARK CONTRAST BETWEEN NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST
BEHIND IN FAVOR OF TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
THE AREA. MUCH OF THE DAY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE DRY AS HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT, WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER ARRIVING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL
HOLD INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE RAIN CHANCES ONLY INCREASE INTO FRIDAY AS
A SHORTWAVE EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, EJECTING NORTH-
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH
RAIN CHANCES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN THE
FORECAST, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S SETTLE IN FOR THE WEEKEND,
WHILE STILL REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (WHICH
IS AROUND 60 DEGREES). BOTH TRICK-OR-TREATERS AND BONFIRE
HAVERS WILL BE WATCHING IF WE'LL HAVE A BREAK IN THE RAINFALL
HALLOWEEN EVENING, WITH MODELS SUGGESTING THAT WE ARE MORE
LIKELY TO BE RAINY THAN NOT (THOUGH RECENT DETERMINISTIC RUNS
ARE TRENDING DRIER). IT'LL BE A GOOD IDEA TO HAVE UMBRELLAS AND
RAIN BOOTS AT THE READY REGARDLESS FOR ANY YOUNG'UNS ROAMING THE
STREETS IN SEARCH OF TREATS.
THE STORY OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY AT
LEAST ONE CUTOFF LOW THAT DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS, SLOWLY
DRIFTING EASTWARD AS IT IS FOLLOWED UP BY DEEPENING SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYSTEM IS WILDLY DIFFERENT BETWEEN EACH MODEL SYSTEM, WITH STRONG
WINDS AND AT LEAST ONE SHOT OF HEALTHY RAINFALL EXPECTED AT A
MINIMUM. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ACROSS THE BOARD CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY ANY
HOPES FOR SNOW, AND THE BETTER THING TO WATCH WILL END UP BEING
LOCATIONS THAT SEE THE DEFORMATION BAND OF RAINFALL AS THE SYSTEM
PIVOTS AND SLOWS DOWN. AREAS THAT DO SEE THE LONGER PERIOD OF
HEALTHY RAINFALL WILL SEE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES DUE TO THE
SHEER DURATION OF THE MODERATE RAINFALL. WITH NO SLAM DUNK PWAT
VALUES IN THE AREA, FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A PRETTY LIMITED THREAT.
UNCERTAINTY ONLY INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH THE BEST SIGNAL
BEING A PERIOD TO DRY OUT IN AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE IN THE WORK WEEK/WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE OCT 27 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE PROVING TO BE STICKIER THAN INITIALLY
EXPECTED, WITH CLOUD BASES OF FL014-022 HOLDING ON AT KOMA AND
KLNK WITH A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO THE SOUTHEAST TO FL040. WE
EXTENDED THE COVERAGE OF MVFR CEILINGS FOR A FEW HOURS FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST, WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THOSE
TERMINALS BY 06Z THIS TONIGHT. KOFK IS SET TO SEE RESTRICTIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, FALLING TO LIFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHILE SPENDING A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF
TIME IN IFR TERRITORY. FORTUNATELY, MOST ANY VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH THE OTHER FORECAST NOTE BEING GUSTY WINDS THAT
ARRIVE TO ALL THREE TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WHERE GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS ARE EXPECTED OUT OF THE
SOUTH.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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