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FXUS63 KOAX 051039
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
539 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (25-50%), ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TONIGHT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH FROST
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES (40-70%)
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2026
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING DEPICTS A
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW PERSISTS OVER
ONTARIO WHILE ANOTHER MOVES ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. THE
AFOREMENTIONED ONTARIO LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SAG
SOUTHWARD, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING AT 25-35 MPH HAVE PERSISTED BEHIND THE FRONT
THIS EVENING, GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY FRONT IS
NOW PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, BRINGING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
KOAX RADAR DISPLAYS RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE LATE THIS EVENING AS FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASES. HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A FAIRLY DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER, KEEPING A LOT OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION FROM REACHING THE
GROUND. HOWEVER, THE SHOWERS MAY HELP TO TRANSPORT SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALOFT TO THE SURFACE, WITH ISOLATED 40-50 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS ARE EVENTUALLY EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WITH POPS PEAKING AT 25-50% FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG OF SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-80. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
EXPECTED TO PEAK UNDER 0.20" IN THIS AREA.
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE FELT ON TUESDAY AS AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S, ABOUT 20 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY'S HIGHS. A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PIVOTING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN, THERE WILL BE SOME INITIAL LOW-
LEVEL DRY AIR TO OVERCOME, KEEPING POPS LIMITED TO 40% GENERALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION TOTALS WILL REMAIN CONSTRAINED TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH.
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...
GENERALLY ZONAL TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOLER INITIALLY WITH A FEW PASSING SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES BRINGING PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN CHANCES. THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL BRING THE RETURN FOR FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL
EARLY BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AT THEIR COOLEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA DROPPING NEAR FREEZING,
WITH THE EXACT EXTENT DEPENDING ON HOW CLOUD COVER SHAKES OUT. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL PERSIST UNDER THICKER CLOUD INSULATION,
KEEPING LOWS CLOSER TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THURSDAY MORNING LOWS ARE EXPECTED IN THE 30S, WITH AREAS NEARING
FREEZING TOWARDS EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S THURSDAY, LOW TO MID 70S
FRIDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
RETURN LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE PIVOTS
ACROSS THE AREA, BRINGING 40-70% POPS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO
PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA, DROPPING SUNDAY'S HIGHS
BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES TAPER
OFF THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL CURRENTLY REMAINS LOW
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 535 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
TAF SITES, SO HAVE REMAINED OUT OF THE UPDATED FORECASTS. MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE THE WIND. VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION IS EXPECTED AS WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TAF LINES ARE DRIVEN ENTIRELY BY WIND SPEEDS
PICKING UP MID-DAY TODAY AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 10 KNOTS
BEFORE RELAXING AGAIN AFTER DARK. HAVE CHOSEN NOT TO INCLUDE
GUSTS AT THIS POINT, BUT THEY MAY NEED TO BE ADDED IN IF THEY
ARE RECORDED A BIT MORE THAN ANTICIPATED. GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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