730
FXUS63 KOAX 251649
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1149 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS EVENING, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (UP TO 65 MPH)
AND HAIL (UP TO 1 INCH) THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A MID-LEVEL LOW
PUSHING ONSHORE OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD
CORRIDOR OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST,
WITH SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW GUSTING AT 20-30 MPH USHERS IN ABOVE-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S
TODAY.
STORM CHANCES RETURN TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND NEAR THE NOSE
OF A DEVELOPING LLJ. OVERALL, FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN WEAK,
WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES ONLY AROUND 25 KTS. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL
BE PLENTIFUL, WITH A CORRIDOR OF 2000-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE EXTENDING
INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. GIVEN THE SETUP, A MINIMALLY ORGANIZED
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA BY LATE AFTERNOON, THEN DRIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA DURING THE EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (UP TO 65
MPH) WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY
DRY LOWEST 2 KM AND DCAPE VALUES OF 1200-1500 J/KG. HAIL APPROACHING
1 INCH IN DIAMETER CANNOT BE RULED OUT UNDER ANY STRONGER CORES.
AREAS SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO NORFOLK TO SIOUX CITY LINE ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY. STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND DRIFT EAST-NORTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS CONTINUING IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BRITISH COLUMBIA LOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, SENDING SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE
FLOW AND POTENTIALLY GRAZING THE AREA. POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AT 50-80%
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, THEN REMAIN ELEVATED AT 40-60% THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LATEST NBM GUIDANCE PLACES THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH A 50-75% PROBABILITY
FOR AT LEAST 0.50 INCH OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-80 AND A
20-50% PROBABILITY NORTHWARD. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER SOUTH. NO
DAY IN THIS PERIOD CURRENTLY STANDS OUT FOR SEVERE WEATHER, AS THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST, CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER
WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
PERIODIC 15-25% POPS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A RIBBON OF
VORTICITY REMAINS DRAPED NEAR THE AREA. HIGHS WILL STAY NEAR
AVERAGE, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S. BEYOND NEXT WEEK, LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
LIKELY BRINGING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT 12-16 KTS, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS BEFORE GRADUALLY CALMING UNDER 12 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING. A
CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THIS EVENING, THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
NORTH OF KOFK AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND WIND GUSTS (UP TO 50 KTS) WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE CLUSTER OF STORMS. LOW- LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL IMPACT KOFK OVERNIGHT AS A 40-45 KT LOW- LEVEL JET NOSES IN
AT FL015. MID- AND HIGH- LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...WOOD
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