794  
FXUS63 KOAX 280511  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
1111 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021  
 
WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST  
NE THIS EVENING, AND THAT RAIN WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW ALONG  
THE NE/SD BORDER. AND IT'S THAT AREA THAT COULD BE IN SLIGHT  
DEFORMATION ZONE OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES  
BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES 1-2" POSSIBLE FOR A  
COUPLE OF COUNTIES, KNOX AND CEDAR, AND EVEN A COUPLE MODELS HINT  
AT POSSIBLE SLIGHTLY MORE IN THE 3-4" RANGE ALONG THE SD BORDER.  
THUS WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KNOX AND CEDAR  
COUNTIES THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING.  
 
FARTHER SOUTH, AS THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE ARE THIS  
EVENING, COULD SEE A ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP. THERE IS JUST A  
HINT OF SOME VERY LIMITED MID LEVEL INSTABILITY, WITH COMPUTED  
850MB LI SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE DURING THE EVENING. SPC KEEPS THE  
GENERAL THUNDER OUTLOOK SOUTH OF THE AREA, AS DOES THE CALIBRATES  
SPC HREF MODEL. THE SREF HINTS AT A NARROW CORRIDOR OF THUNDER  
PROBABILITIES, BUT OVERALL, HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF ANY  
THUNDER THIS EVENING. WHERE IT RAINS, AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AT  
LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.  
 
AFTER SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN  
THE LOWER TO MID 40S, (ALBEIT STILL NEAR NORMAL), THE REMAINDER  
OF THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY AND  
VERY MILD WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 50S, BUT A FEW LOW 60S HERE AND  
THERE AS WELL.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1111 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021  
 
A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE OMAHA METRO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST  
INTO WESTERN PARTS OF CASS AND OTOE COUNTIES AS OF 11 PM WILL  
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE ADVANCING EAST. AS SUCH, WE WILL ONLY  
MENTION VCSH AT KOMA FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE, IR  
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS  
ACROSS EASTERN NE. LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT MVFR CEILINGS  
WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 08Z OR 09Z WITH SOME POTENTIAL  
FOR IFR CEILINGS AT KOFK. THE CEILINGS WILL SCATTER OUT BY LATE  
SUNDAY MORNING AT KOFK AND AROUND MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON AT  
KOMA AND KLNK. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATE TONIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY LATE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 247 PM CST SAT FEB 27 2021  
 
THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS FOR THE PLATTE AND ELKHORN RIVER BASINS  
THROUGH MONDAY. WE DO HAVE TWO ONGOING ICE JAMS AND ASSOCIATED  
FLOODING ALONG THE PLATTE RIVER, THE FIRST NEAR SCHUYLER, AND THE  
SECOND NEAR FREMONT. FLOOD WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR THOSE TWO  
LOCATIONS WITH NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES OR IMPROVEMENT NOTED.  
 
RIVER OBSERVERS HAVE REPORTED THAT LOWER PORTIONS OF BOTH RIVERS  
WERE PERHAPS SEEING SOME CLEARING OUT WITH MORE FREE FLOWING WATER  
NOTICED. AND THAT'S GOOD NEWS TO ALLOW ANY ADDITIONAL ICE BREAKUP  
COMING DOWNSTREAM TO HOPEFULLY CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE  
SYSTEM. WE ARE CONTINUING TO SEEING HIGHER FLOWS ON THE PLATTE  
FROM NORTH BEND DOWNSTREAM, SO WE KNOW THERE IS LIKELY SOME ICE  
MOVING THROUGH THE CHANNELS. WE ARE ALSO SEEING STAGES DROP AT  
WATERLOO ON THE ELKHORN RIVER, WHICH CONFIRMS THE VISUAL  
OBSERVATIONS THAT ICE WAS CLEARING OUT THERE, AND LIKELY MAKING IT  
INTO THE PLATTE RIVER.  
 
GIVEN THE HIGH UNCERTAINTY OF IF, OR WHEN ANY ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS  
COULD DEVELOP, WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. WE  
DID TRIM A COUPLE OF COUNTIES IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE ELKHORN  
RIVER OUT OF THE FLOOD WATCH SINCE RIVER OBSERVATIONS THERE  
INDICATE THE WATER SEEMS TO BE FLOWING MOSTLY OK, WITH PLENTY OF  
ROOM IN THE BANKS IF SOMETHING WERE TO HAPPEN. AND WE'LL CONTINUE  
TO MONITOR CLOSELY, IN COOPERATION WITH RIVER OBSERVERS, NRDS, AND  
LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT TO ALERT OF ANY ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS IF  
THEY DEVELOP.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR NEZ032-033-042>045-  
050>053-067.  
 
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012.  
 
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...DEWALD  
AVIATION...MEAD  
HYDROLOGY...DEWALD  
 
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