429
FXUS63 KOAX 070451
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1151 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
- STORM CHANCES RETURN TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES
CONTINUE DAILY INTO FRIDAY.
- A STRETCH OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND
INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS EVENING AS THE AREA REMAINS ON
THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD CORRIDOR OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. LIGHT
WINDS AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, GUSTIER WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD KEEP
FOG MAINLY CONFINED TO LOW-LYING AND WIND-PROTECTED AREA.
ON TUESDAY, MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION, BRINGING AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. LATER
TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL HELP DAMPEN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA, TRANSITIONING THE
PATTERN TOWARD MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO
PUSH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG IT ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY PERSIST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO MOVE INTO FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (UP TO 60 MPH) AND HAIL (UP TO 1
INCH) WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS, THOUGH BOTH INSTABILITY AND DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASED WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO THE
FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK WILL FEATURE
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THESE WAVES WILL GRADUALLY PUSH THE
AFOREMENTIONED QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SOUTHWARD OVER SEVERAL DAYS
WHILE BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND NEAR THE BOUNDARY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL PUSH DEW POINTS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S, RESULTING IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN
WEDNESDAY, THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS RATHER ISOLATED. BETTER CHANCES ARRIVE LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND HELPS INITIATE STORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY, LIKELY POSITIONED SOMEWHERE NEAR EAST-CENTRAL NEBRASKA
INTO WEST-CENTRAL IOWA. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY DO NOT APPEAR OVERLY
IMPRESSIVE, BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS KEEPING HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG THE FRONT, WHICH BY THEM
WILL LIKELY BE LOCATED CLOSER TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA AS IT CONTINUES ITS SLOW SOUTHWARD PUSH. ONCE AGAIN,
INGREDIENTS REMAIN SUFFICIENT, THOUGH NOT PARTICULARLY ROBUST, TO
SUPPORT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL REMAIN ON
THE MILDER SIDE, GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN AMPLIFYING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND GRADUALLY EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY, LEADING TO A WARMING TREND.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL TAKE A STEP UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS. A GENERALLY HOT AND HUMID PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT, BUT EXPECT THE
CHANCE OF IT IMPACTING ANY GIVEN TAF SITE IS ONLY ABOUT 10-15%,
SO IT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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