206
FXUS63 KOAX 311855
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
155 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- REGULAR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH
MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
- A SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN SETS UP NEXT WEEK KEEPING WARM AND MUGGY
WEATHER IN PLACE WITH ADDITIONAL DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS AN OMEGA H5 PATTERN WITH A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL IOWA, TAKING THIS
MORNING'S SHOWERS WITH IT. 17Z SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS A STALLED
FRONT JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES
HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY ALLOWING TEMPS TO PUSH
CLOSE TO 80F ONCE AGAIN. TODAY IS DAY #8 IN A ROW OF MANAGING
80+ IN OMAHA. THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR MAY 31ST IS 80F.
UNFORTUNATELY, DEWPOINTS AREN'T THAT FAR BEHIND, MOSTLY IN THE
60S.
AFTER STRUGGLING WITH MULTIPLE SCENARIOS OVER THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY TODAY, CAM GUIDANCE IS NARROWING IN ON A SOLUTION OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED FRONT
AROUND 5PM-8PM. THERE'S LITTLE FORCING FOR ASCENT, BUT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR (2000 J/KG AND 30 KNOTS) SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO ALLOW ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TO GROW STRONG TO SEVERE.
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BEFORE SUNRISE. HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT DAMAGING WINDS LOOK POSSIBLE,
TOO, WITH LOW-LEVELS REMAINING DRY AND CURRENTLY DEEP MIXING TO
H7 (KOAX 18Z SOUNDING).
MONDAY
EXPECT ANOTHER TOASTY ONE TO KICK OFF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER WITH
WIDESPREAD 80S. A FEW LOCALES WITHIN A COUNTY OF KANSAS MAY
MANAGE 90F. TODAY'S STALLED FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE REMAINS IN
PLACE AND WILL MARK THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR MORE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. NBM CAME IN DRY FOR MONDAY, BUT I ADDED SOME 20-30%
POPS IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO BE A LOT
LIKE TODAY WITH PERHAPS BETTER LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR AS THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF PUSHES NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.
AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WE MAY JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR
THE CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE/PANHANDLE TO
FIND ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE. THOSE STORMS MAY BE PUSHING INTO
THIS CWA AND/OR DISSIPATING BY SUNRISE TUESDAY MORNING. IOWA
WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT IT ISN'T AS SAFE A BET FOR EASTERN
NEBRASKA (30% POPS).
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AN EARLY LOOK AT TUESDAY SUGGESTS AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE, AS IS ANOTHER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS (SHORTWAVE). EXPECT MORE 80S.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
AS THE EASTERN RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH IN THAT DIRECTION, DEEP
MOISTURE TRANSPORT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
BRINGS THE WEEK'S BEST CHANCE OF POPS (50-70%) TO THE AREA WITH
PWAT VALUES WELL OVER AN INCH AND ABOVE THE 95TH PERCENTILE FOR
EARLY JUNE (NAEFS). NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 0.5" OF RAIN OR MORE
OVER 24 HOURS RUNS BETWEEN 35-50% FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ACROSS
THE AREA. AFTERNOON 80S HOLD ON THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
LONGER RANGE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA OVER THE COURSE OF THE WEEKEND, BUT
ALL 12Z GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE AN MID-LEVEL LOW
STREAKING NORTHEAST JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA AND BRINGING MORE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR NEEDED MOISTURE. MOST OF THESE CHANCES ARE
BELOW 50%, BUT STRINGING MULTIPLE DAYS OF 25% CHANCE OF PRECIP
BRINGS A 'ROUND ABOUT WAY FOR A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN.
THE WPC AND CPC ARE BOTH POINTING TO A HOT SPELL FOR JUNE'S
SECOND WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE AREA AS LOW CLOUDS HAVE
PUSHED NORTHEAST. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A CHANCE AT REDUCED VISIBILITY DURING HEAVY RAIN
WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AT KOMA BETWEEN 03Z AND 05Z
MONDAY. EXPECT THE OTHER TWO TAF SITES TO REMAIN DRY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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