487
FXUS63 KOAX 311902
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
102 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- EXPECT SOME SLICK ROADS THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY WITH A
BAND OF SNOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA (60-90+% CHANCE). MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE TOTALS OF A FEW TENTHS UP TO 1 INCH, BUT
A FEW LOCALIZED 2-INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA (10-20% CHANCE).
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WORK WEEK, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 30S AND 40S. MANY LOCATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE 50S ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 102 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY:
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH --EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NE AS OF NOON-- WILL TRACK
NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ON IT'S HEELS, A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTHEAST NE AND WESTERN IA TONIGHT. FORCING FOR ASCENT
TIED TO THE LEAD WAVE COUPLED WITH LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAVE
FOSTERED A RELATIVELY NARROW SNOW BAND EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
SD INTO CENTRAL NE AS OF MIDDAY.
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE PROGRESSES THE SNOW BAND INTO THE NORTHWEST
PART OF OUR AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON, AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. GIVEN A DRY, ANTECEDENT AIR MASS,
CONSIDERABLE TOP-DOWN SATURATION IS BEING REQUIRED FOR THE SNOW
TO REACH THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN AN EXPECTED 2-4 HOUR TIME
WINDOW FOR CONSISTENT SNOWFALL AT ANY ONE LOCATION. IN THE WAKE
OF THE PRIMARY SNOW BAND AND AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY DISTURBANCE,
THE MODELS HINT AT WIDELY SCATTERED, MORE SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
GRADUAL LOSS OF SATURATION/ICE-INTRODUCTION ATOP A DEVELOPING
WARM NOSE, SUGGESTIVE OF A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND/OR LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ALSO
DECREASES DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD, SO NO IMPACTFUL ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
IN REGARD TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, LIMITED EVENT DURATION WILL KEEP
ACCUMULATIONS LOW WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS, HIGHLIGHTING TOTALS FROM A FEW TENTHS UP TO AN INCH.
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST NE.
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM THE SOUTH IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF AND IN
THE LEAD SNOW BAND, SO TRAVEL COULD BE IMPACTED BY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN FALLING/BLOWING SNOW AND SLIPPERY ROADS. THE
CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT OVERALL IMPACTS WILL REMAIN LOWER
THAN THAT REQUIRED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S FORECAST. SO, ANY SNOW THAT
FALLS OVERNIGHT SHOULD MELT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
NEXT WEEK:
HIGH-AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA WILL BE TEMPORARILY DAMPENED BY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
PROGRESSING ALONG ITS PERIPHERY. BUT IN GENERAL, THAT FEATURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST, LEADING TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK. A COUPLE NOTABLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ARE PROJECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. IN
THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME, LEADING TO LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-30%). OTHERWISE, HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 ARE FORECAST FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH READINGS WARMING INTO THE 40S AND 50S ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2026
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL PARTS
OF SD AND NE WILL CONTINUE EAST, REACHING KOFK BY 22Z, AND KOMA
AND KLNK IN THE 01/02Z-01/03Z TIMEFRAME. PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND IFR IN THE SUBSEQUENT 2-3
HOURS AS THE BAND PASSES THROUGH THOSE LOCATIONS. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCES HINTS AT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPING BEHIND THE INITIAL SNOW BAND IN THE 01/04Z-01/08Z
TIME PERIOD. SOME OF THAT PRECIPITATION COULD BE A MIX OF LIGHT
SNOW, LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SLEET. AREAL COVERAGE CURRENTLY
APPEARS LIMITED, SO CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRENCE AT THE
TERMINAL LOCATIONS IS CURRENTLY LOW.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AT KOFK, AND THIS
EVENING AT KOMA AND KLNK. WINDS THEN DECREASE SUNDAY MORNING
WHILE SWITCHING TO WEST OR NORTHWEST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...MEAD
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