513
FXUS63 KOAX 180843
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
343 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2020
..UPDATED FORECAST DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2020
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. THAT SAID, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SOME SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL NOON. AMOUNTS WOULD BE
LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES IF ANYTHING MANAGES TO DEVELOP.
BEYOND THE SMALL CHANCE AT SPRINKLES, SUNSHINE OBFUSCATED BY
SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS OVER THIS WEEKEND AS IT'S
FORCED EASTWARD BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW COMING ON SHORE OVER
THE WEST COAST. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE LOW 70S TO THE LOW 80S
ON SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE EASTERN US. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR WIND GUSTS
AROUND 35 MPH ON SUNDAY. HAD SOME DISCUSSION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES TO BUMP GUSTS HIGHER. BUT, WE HAD ALREADY INCREASED THEM
BY ABOUT 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DECIDED WE WERE
CONTENT. IT WILL BE SOMETHING WE WATCH CLOSELY. MAY ALSO NEED TO
BUMP UP TEMPERATURES TOO AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS COULD LEAD TO A
LARGE MIXED LAYER. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS
SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN, BUT THE BEST CONDITIONS FOR THAT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WITH RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER (CPC) SHOWS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
OVER THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. FOR THE AREA, THAT WOULD MEAN
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. CPC ALSO SHOWS BELOW NORMAL CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE SAME PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN HOW THEY RESOLVE THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CURRENTLY KNOWN AS TWENTY-TWO.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2020
CLOUDS WITH BASES FL050 TO FL100 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM SCT TO
BKN. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SMOKE ALOFT IS UP TO AS HIGH AS FL200, BUT
ABOVE THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH SMOKE. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT, AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO FRIDAY.
WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONG AT KOFK TOMORROW BY NOON, IN THE 10 TO
15 KNOT RANGE.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FAJMAN
AVIATION...MILLER
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