501  
FXUS63 KOAX 150445  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
1145 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON, AND  
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED STORMS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A  
FEW OF THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS  
AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.  
 
- ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH  
THE WEEK. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON,  
WITH POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK.  
 
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT  
HIGHS RETURN TO THE MID 70S FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025  
 
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:  
 
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL  
CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHWEST NE, WITH A BELT OF STRONGER  
MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ROTATING AROUND IT'S EASTERN PERIPHERY  
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION OCCURRING  
ALONG A 30-40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET HAS MAINTAINED A BAND OF SHOWERS  
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NE SO FAR TODAY, AND  
LATEST CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BAND WILL DECREASE IN AREAL  
COVERAGE AS IT CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST INTO EASTERN NE THIS  
AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION, THINNER CLOUDS HAVE  
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 80S, WHICH WHEN COUPLED  
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S, IS RESULTING IN MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF  
500-1000 J/KG AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON.  
 
CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE  
ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES, WITH THE CAMS  
INDICATING ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG  
THAT FEATURE AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST THIS AFTERNOON. OUR 18Z  
SOUNDING, SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN  
THE LOWEST 3 KM, WITH GENERALLY A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE  
FEATURING MODEST AMOUNTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. GIVEN THESE  
PARAMETERS, THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE  
STORMS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50-65  
MPH. ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL APPROACHING QUARTER SIZE  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. FARTHER WEST, THE MODELS CONTINUE TO  
INDICATE A MORE ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS EVOLVING OVER CENTRAL  
NE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING, WITH THAT ACTIVITY  
EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NE BY 9-10 PM. THOSE STORMS  
WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  
 
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY  
LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE  
ABOVE-MENTIONED, UPPER-AIR SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE NORTH OF THE  
AREA.  
 
IT WILL REMAIN WARM ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.  
 
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:  
 
THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE  
PROGRESSION OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN  
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WHERE  
IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW. SEVERAL EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA  
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH/LOW, CONTRIBUTING DAILY  
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THE BEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL (60-80% POPS) WILL  
EXIST ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONGER VORTICITY  
MAXIMUM PIVOTS THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL  
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THAT TIME. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW  
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO  
TUESDAY AS A LEAD DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION.  
 
WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY, WITH  
READINGS COOLING INTO THE 70S FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025  
 
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH  
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THERE IS  
THE POTENTIAL THAT AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM MAKES IT TO THE  
TERMINALS, BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR  
CEILINGS.  
 
 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...MEAD  
AVIATION...ANW  
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