680
FXUS63 KOAX 272311
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
511 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN IOWA THROUGH 6PM.
EXPECT THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY WINDS, LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY,
AND DRY FUELS TO RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING TO A LIGHT WINTRY MIX IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP
TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE ON SOME SURFACES.
- HEADING INTO MID-WEEK, TEMPERATURES WILL WARM, GRADUALLY
RETURNING TO THE 50S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 114 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. THE
FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA LATER TODAY, WHICH WILL BRING
SOME COOLER AIR TO THE REGION TOMORROW. FOR THE REST OF TODAY,
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE REGION.
THE RED FLAG WARNING WAS EXPANDED SOUTHWARD DUE TO CONCERNS WITH LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (UPPER TEENS-LOW 20S), WINDS GUSTING AS
HIGH AS 35 MPH, AND DRY FUELS. ANY FIRES THAT START TODAY WILL
SPREAD RAPIDLY.
COOLER AIR PUSHES IN SATURDAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S IN SOME
LOCATIONS.
SUNDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERS THE REGION FROM THE WEST. MODELS
HAVE SHIFTED THIS SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN PAST RUNS, WHICH
HAS ALSO EFFECTIVELY SHIFTED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. LIGHT SNOW WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY ON IN THE EVENT, BEFORE CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING TO MAYBE 1-2 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE AREA WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY
EXPECTED IS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. HEADING INTO LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IN SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. THIS MAY
LEAVE A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE ON SURFACES.
EXPECT SOME RIDGING OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING BACK INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
SET UP AS A TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST PUTS US UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
AS FAR AS THE MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS UP OVER
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI ON TUESDAY, LIFTING
SLIGHTLY NORTH ON WEDNESDAY BUT REMAINING IN MISSOURI AND KANSAS.
THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION, WITH THE GFS HAVING A SLIGHTLY QUICKER
AND MORE AGGRESSIVE ARRIVAL. THE ONE THINGS MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
ON IS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL NOT TAP INTO WARM, MOIST GULF AIR UNTIL
AFTER IT HAS MOVED PAST IMPACTING OUR CWA. RIGHT NOW, THE BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF OUR CWA ALONG THE
BOUNDARY; HOWEVER, THERE IS A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF SOME RAIN IMPACTING
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80 WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
KOFK AND KOMA ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 12 KT WITHIN
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST AND THEN EAST
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KT BY
MID-MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...MEAD
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