968
FXUS63 KOAX 272106
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
306 PM CST THU FEB 27 2020
..UPDATED FORECAST DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST THU FEB 27 2020
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW:
PRECIPITATION CAN BE SEEN ON RADAR IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA. TOTALS FROM THAT HAVE BEEN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE. EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR DRIZZLE OF ITS OWN TONIGHT AS ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH WEAK
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL DRY AIR, PRECIPITATION (IF IT DOES OCCUR)
WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. ANY SNOWFALL WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
WITH TOTALS UNDER AN INCH. THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY, LOW QPF
EVENT SO NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SNOW WILL BE FROM 8 PM TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM TOMORROW MORNING.
AFTER THIS PRECIPITATION CHANCE PASSES, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A
FEW DRY, SUNNY DAYS. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR TOMORROW AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER UP
TO THE MID 50S AT THE NE/KS BORDER.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY:
FOR THE WEEKEND, WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S
AND SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
A CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVES SOUTH OUT OF CANADA IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE AREA ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING WITH IT A COLD FRONT AND
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. IT IS ONLY MARCH, SO SNOW IS STILL A
REASONABLE EXPECTATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY ARE FORECASTED TO
REACH THE LOW 40S IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WHAT THIS INDICATES IS THAT THIS WILL BE YET ANOTHER DIFFICULT
PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TYPES ON
MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. AFTER MONDAY,
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SPLIT FLOW WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY
LEAVING NEBRASKA PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THURSDAY. THAT WILL
ALSO LEAD TO TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND THE CLIMATIC AVERAGE NEXT
WEEK (MID TO UPPER 40S).
AVIATION
(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST THU FEB 27 2020
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND MOST OF TONIGHT.
GENERALLY NW WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TIME PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT LATE TONIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. OVERNIGHT, LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 03Z AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY. AS OF NOW, IMPACTS SHOULD BE
LOW, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KOMA IN THE MORNING DUE TO
LOWER CEILINGS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FAJMAN
AVIATION...GUNKEL
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