298
FXUS63 KOAX 300441
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1041 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN STILL EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80. CHANCES
TO SEE ANY SNOW ARE CONTINUING TO DECREASE.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
ON SUNDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY, AND SLIGHTLY BELOW TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- THE WARM TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
PLATTE AND ELKHORN RIVER BASINS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 358 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
TODAY:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING
SLOWLY OVER THE SOUTHERN FOUR CORNERS REGION, UNDERNEATH BROAD
RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST. DRILLING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS MOVING OUT OF THE AREA IN ANTICIPATION OF A
STRENGTHENING LEE SURFACE LOW TAKING SHAPE IN THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO
REGION WHICH SERVES AS THE CATALYST FOR THE LATE-WEEK WEATHER.
SUNNY SKIES AND WEAK WINDS HAVE HELPED TODAY FEEL EVERY BIT AS
WARM AS IT CAN BE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60,
WHILE AREAS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA CONTINUE TO WORK AWAY
RESIDUAL SNOWPACK FROM THE WINTER STORM A FEW WEEKS AGO. WINDS
HAVE ALREADY SWUNG SOUTHWESTERLY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN NE, WITH SOUTHWEST IA EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUIT
THIS EVENING WHILE CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE AND OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES FALL IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. A FEW SPOTS IN
EXTREME SOUTHERN NEBRASKA COULD SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT AS WELL,
MOSTLY WHERE CONSIDERABLE SNOWMELT HAS BEEN OCCURRING.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY:
THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE THE INCOMING
SYSTEM THAT SWINGS THROUGH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED
CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES EARLY
THURSDAY, WITH BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION, MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS, AND
MODEST FRONTOGENESIS USHERING IN RAIN CHANCES INTO SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA BEFORE SUNRISE THURSDAY. AMOUNTS EARLY ON SHOULD REMAIN
MINOR WITH THE STRONGEST OF THE FORCING STILL BEING RELEGATED TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY, THE MAIN SURFACE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI WHILE
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN. AS THIS OCCURS, A WAVE OF MODERATE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, BEFORE EXITING OUT OF THE AREA BY 6 AM
FRIDAY. WE COULD SEE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WITH RAINFALL
THURSDAY EVENING, BUT INSTABILITY AMOUNTS ARE FOCUSED FORCING WILL
BE LIMITED AND MAKE IT HARD FOR ANY ONE PLACE TO HEAR IT. ENSEMBLE
TRENDS IN THE AXIS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO PUSH THE BEST
RAINFALL SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
WITH THE SYSTEM COMING TO THE AREA UNDERNEATH BROAD BUT WEAKENING
RIDGING, WE'LL STILL ENJOY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY SHOULD STILL REACH THE
UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S, AND LEAVE THE ONLY CHANCES FOR EVEN ONE
SNOWFLAKE LIMITED TO OVERNIGHT THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN
FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE THE DYNAMIC COOLING FROM THE SYSTEM AND
IT'S ASSOCIATED RAINFALL WILL BE STRONGEST. NONETHELESS, THE ONLY
TOWN IN THAT AREA WITH A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE OF SEEING A TRACE
IS FALLS CITY, WITH MOST OF THE GEFS AND EPS MEMBERS SHOWING UP WITH
ZERO SNOW FOR THAT AREA. ALSO OF NOTE AS OF LATE, OUR CONTINUED
WARMTH AND INCOMING RAINFALL HAS RAISED CONCERNS FOR ICE JAMS ALONG
THE PLATTE AND ELKHORN RIVERS. WITH THE MAIN AXIS OF RAINFALL MOVING
SOUTHEAST AND LARGELY OUT OF THE RESPECTIVE RIVER VALLEYS, THE
OVERALL CEILING ON THE IMPACTS HAS BEEN LOWERED. WE'LL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THOSE CHANCES AS THEY COME, BUT AT THIS POINT RAINFALL SEEMS
TO BE A LESSENING CONTRIBUTOR TO THE OVERALL EQUATION.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND:
WITH THE RAIN SQUARELY IN THE REAR-VIEW MIRROR WE'LL SEE A SLIGHT
THERMAL RIDGE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY TO RESPOND IN TURN WITH 50S TO
JUST OVER 60 DEGREES ON TAP. SOME GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THEIR
ARRIVAL, WITH SPEEDS BOTH AFTERNOONS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20-30 MPH
RANGE -- LIMITING THE EXTENT TO WHICH WE CAN ENJOY THE WARMTH.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, AS THE
MID/UPPER PATTERN TURNS TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES (MOSTLY IN THE MID 30S GIVE OR TAKE A
DEGREE OR TWO) AND WE'LL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR MOISTURE AS WE
REACH THE MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1041 PM CST WED JAN 29 2025
SKIES ARE CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH.
CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL CLIP US FROM THE SOUTH,
BRINGING LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN AS FAR NORTH AS KOMA, WITH A LESSER
CHANCE (20%) OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS AS FAR NORTH AT KOFK. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY FROM SOUTH OR
SOUTHEASTERLY TO WESTERLY THEN TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BY
THURSDAY EVENING. EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO AT LEAST 1500 FT
THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN CIGS DROPPING TO IFR AT
KLNK AT 15Z (70% CHANCE), WITH A 20% CHANCE OF IFR CIGS AT KOMA
AFTER 18Z. MODELS HAVE CIGS IMPROVING TOWARD THE VERY END OF THE
TAF PERIOD AROUND 04-06Z, BUT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING
WENT AHEAD AND LEFT CIGS DOWN THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MCCOY
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