378  
FXUS63 KOAX 131124  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
624 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2020  
   
..UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2020  
 
TODAY:  
 
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES CAN BE SEEN ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA  
THIS MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST  
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. EXPECT TODAY TO BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID  
JULY DAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 90 TO 95 DEGREES TODAY.  
WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 60S TO 70 DEGREES, HEAT  
INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100 DEGREES, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST  
NEBRASKA.  
 
MONDAY OVERNIGHT:  
 
THE RIDGE THAT MOVED INTO THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL  
HAVE ITS LAST HURRAH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS ATTENTION TURNS TO  
AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE AND COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO  
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY MONDAY EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO  
DEVELOP IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND TRACK EAST  
INTO NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA LATE THIS EVENING. WITH CAPE VALUES OF  
3000 J/KG THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR STORMS TO FIRE  
ALONG THE APPROACHING FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, AND INCREASING LOW  
LEVEL JET, ALONG WITH 40 KNOTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL AID IN THE  
STORMS INITIAL PROGRESSION EASTWARD. EXPECT STORMS TO GROW UPSCALE  
AND MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AFTER SUNSET ON MONDAY WITH  
SEVERE WINDS AS THE MAIN HAZARD. THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF ANY  
SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE HINDERED IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY  
A MODEST CAP SEEN IN MODELED SOUNDINGS AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT  
WARM. WITH THAT SAID, EXPECT ANY SEVERE RISK TO BE LIMITED TO  
AREAS WEST OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO SIOUX CITY. DESPITE THE  
DECREASING SEVERE RISK, STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO  
DAYBREAK ON TUESDAY.  
 
TUESDAY:  
 
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR  
TUESDAY. ANY STORM POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW FAR SOUTH  
THE COLD FRONT TRACKS MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL ACT AS THE  
FOCUS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. FOR NOW,  
IT LOOKS LIKE THE FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NE/KS AND  
IA/MO BORDER. DETAILS WILL BE REFINED AS WE GET CLOSER.  
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL RANGE QUITE A BIT. LOCATIONS BEHIND  
THE COLD FRONT WILL SEE A RARE JULY DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER  
70S TO LOW 80S, WHILE LOCATIONS CLOSER TO THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR  
90 DEGREES.  
 
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND:  
 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING IN  
THE SOUTHERN CWA BUT OTHERWISE IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY STAY DRY UNTIL  
THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE TOLERABLE  
FOR JULY AND IN THE 80S. THURSDAY EVENING, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL  
PULSE THROUGH OUR NEAR ZONAL FLOW, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA. SMALL CHANCES FOR  
PRECIP WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER WAVE  
ROLLS THROUGH. HATE TO SAY IT BUT UNFORTUNATELY FRIDAY THROUGH  
SUNDAY LOOK LIKE THEY ARE GOING TO BE TOASTY. FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL  
RETURNS TO THE LOW TO MID 90S. IF YOUR A COOL WEATHER FAN,  
SATURDAY WONT BE YOUR DAY. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER  
90S WITH HEAT INDICES OVER 100. IT WILL BE A GOOD DAY TO STAY  
INSIDE. TEMPS WILL "COOL OFF" ON SUNDAY AND RETURN TO THE LOWER  
90S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2020  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS  
BY 16-18Z. GUSTS DIMINISH BY 00Z. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO  
INCREASE AT KOFK BY 03Z AND BEYOND. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT  
STORMS WILL MAKE IT KLNK/KOMA AT THIS TIME, THUS DID NOT MENTION.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...HB  
AVIATION...DEWALD  
 
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