615
FXUS63 KOAX 241151
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
651 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PINWHEEL AROUND A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY SLIDING EAST ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS MORNING.
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
BEHIND THE FEATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SOUTH ON MONDAY AS A 1035
MB SURFACE HIGH SKIRTS THE AREA TO OUR NORTH. MONDAY HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOW 50S IN THE SOUTH.
A FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD PRODUCE A FEW
SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT ONLY LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES OVERHEAD FOR TUESDAY WITH INCREASING LOW-
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. A TIGHTENING SURFACE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE
SURFACE WINDS FOR MID-WEEK WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 30-40 MPH
RANGE QUITE LIKELY. A THE SAME TIME, A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. A THE SURFACE, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FROM SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHICH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, A WESTERN
CONUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING INTO THE
REGION WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FROM THE DAKOTAS DROPPING SOUTH,
ALLOWING THE SURFACE FRONT TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY WITH RAIN IN THE
SOUTH AND A MIX IN THE MIDDLE. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SOUTH BEHIND THIS WAVE ENDING PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT BUT STILL HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES AND SO FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW IN THE EXTENDED.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT SUN MAR 24 2019
THE STORM SYSTEM OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THIS AFTERNOON. VARIABLE CEILINGS MVFR/IFR/LIFR WITH LIGHT RAIN WILL
BECOME MORE PREDOMINENTLY MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AT WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE 10 TO 15KTS. THERE MAY BE
SOME BREAKS WITH VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, HOWEVER MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL FILL BACK IN TONIGHT
WITH REINFORCING BACKDOOR COOLING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KERN
LONG TERM...KERN
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
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