557
FXUS63 KOAX 282327
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
527 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY/MONDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT SNOW AND DRIZZLE TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-80.
- A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM COLDER TEMPERATURES (HIGHS: 30S) IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION
ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE
REGION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA WILL BE
FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-80.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
WE END METEOROLOGICAL WINTER WITH A MILD BUT SLIGHTLY COOLER DAY
THAN YESTERDAY. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER SASKATCHEWAN, MANITOBA
AND THE DAKOTAS TODAY, ALLOWING SOME COOLER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION. CURRENT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS MOST
AREAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW LOW 50S TOWARD THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO TOP OUT IN THE 40S
AND 50S.
SUNDAY MORNING, A WEAK H7 SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE ON THE LEE SIDE
OF THE ROCKIES, OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, ARRIVING IN OUR CWA LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH,
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN ANOTHER LOWERING OF SNOW AMOUNTS FOR PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST NOW HAS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-80
RECEIVING UP TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW WITH MAYBE A LOCALIZED INCH.
WITH THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE GROUND WILL BE
WARM, SO IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE, WHICH WILL
IMPACT MEASURABLE SNOW DEPTH.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE SHOWING A POSSIBILITY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THERE IS A LITTLE MORE
UNCERTAINTY OF THIS SCENARIO HEADING UP TOWARD THE OMAHA METRO,
WHILE WE HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRENCE IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF NEBRASKA. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR NEMAHA, PAWNEE AND RICHARDSON COUNTIES FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME POTENTIAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND CONCERNS ABOUT MONDAY MORNING'S COMMUTE. A
LIGHT GLAZE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS SHOULD FREEZING DRIZZLE DEVELOP.
ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID-40S, SO
PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN WITH THIS SECOND WAVE WITH MAYBE
SOME DRIZZLE POSSIBLE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TUESDAY, A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TO AROUND GOODLAND AND DODGE CITY BY THE
EVENING. MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT OVER THE TIMING, STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS REMAINS CONSISTENTLY MORE
AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING IT OVER THE OAX CWA ON WEDNESDAY, WHILE OTHER
MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK IT SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS AND MISSOURI. ALSO
CONSISTENT IS THE PLACEMENT OF A STATIONARY FRONT OVER EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS/CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. WENT
WITH THIS SECOND SOLUTION FOR WEDNESDAY AND PROCEEDED TO PULL POPS
DOWN, ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-80 AS THE GFS APPEARS TO BE AN
OUTLIER AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SOUTH OF OUR AREA AROUND WHERE THE BOUNDARY IS; HOWEVER, AREAS
SOUTH OF I-80 WILL STILL HAVE POTENTIAL (10-20% CHANCE) OF RECEIVING
A LITTLE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
HEADING INTO THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, MODELS SHOW
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, BRINGING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2026
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWESTERLY TO START OUT THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH THE LINGERING GUSTS FROM THE AFTERNOON FALLING OFF AS VFR
CONDITIONS HOLD. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY AT 10 KTS OR LESS THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, BECOMING INCREASINGLY WESTERLY TOMORROW
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER
AS WELL. LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
SLIDE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE KOMA/KOFK AREA, AFFECTING KLNK
FOR 2-3 HOURS. ALONG WITH THOSE CONDITIONS WILL COME SOME LIGHT
SNOW THAT WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE AT ALL, WITH ANY CHANCES
FURTHER DIMINISHING AS YOU GO NORTH TOWARDS KOMA/KLNK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 9 AM CST MONDAY
FOR NEZ091>093.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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