141
FXUS63 KOAX 092314
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
614 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD 80S
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
- GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 30-40+ MPH ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- A COOLING TREND BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUR NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM ARRIVES BY MID-WEEK, CONTINUING THE COOLING TREND, AND
THE RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
KEEPS THE SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE MID-80S ACROSS THE REGION UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. THESE TEMPERATURES ARE APPROXIMATELY 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR AND JUST SHY OF RECORD TERRITORY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AS A TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS, TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILDER TONIGHT, HOVERING IN THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST AND WINDIEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN AND TIGHTEN AS A LARGE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WEST COAST
AND AS HURRICANE ISAIAS MAKES LANDFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST. AS A
RESULT, SOUTH WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED WITH PEAK AFTERNOON GUSTS OF
30-40+ MPH LIKELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
NEAR 90 ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL RECORDS MAY BE CHALLENGED ACROSS
THE REGION WITH THESE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES. NORFOLK'S FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURE IS 89 WITH A PREVIOUS RECORD OF 87 SET IN 2024. OMAHA'S
RECORD OF 88 SET IN 1963 MAY BE CHALLENGED WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF
89. LINCOLN MAY FALL SHY OF THEIR RECORD HIGH OF 91 SET IN 2024 WITH
A FORECAST HIGH OF 87. IN EITHER EVENT, THESE TEMPERATURES ARE
REMINISCENT OF MID-SUMMER RATHER THAN FALL.
IN ADDITION TO THE SUMMER-LIKE HEAT AND WINDY CONDITIONS, DRY
WEATHER DEVELOPS. AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY PLUMMETS TO
BETWEEN 20-40 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS FORECAST OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. AN
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS
REGION MISSED OUT ON THE MAJORITY OF SEPTEMBER'S RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS BEGIN TO DECREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO SLACKEN AND LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. SUMMER-LIKE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE DESPITE THIS WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW- TO MID-80S IN THE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN. THANKFULLY,
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEGINNING A COOLING TREND FOR
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE
FORECAST ON MONDAY AND FOR ALL BY TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS SET TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND
INTERACT WITH REMNANT MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE SIMON. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN
0.5"-1" APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION BY WEEK'S END. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND FALL-
LIKE WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
QUICK SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH THE OCCASIONAL
GUST OF 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE, BUT THEY SHOULD BE RARE ENOUGH TO
AVOID BEING LISTED IN THE TAFS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE OFF THE
SFC AT ABOUT FL010 WHERE 45KT WINDS WILL BE BLOWING FROM THE
SSW. WIND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
STRONGER WINDS MIX BACK DOWN TO THE SFC.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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