921
FXUS63 KOAX 061734
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1134 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.
- UNSEASONABLY WARM THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY
(40-60%). SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY:
THE DENSE FOG HAS BEEN MUCH QUICKER TO DISSIPATE THAN EARLIER
INDICATED AND THE REMAINDER OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELLED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN THOSE ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S. THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 25 TO 35 PERCENT TO SUPPORT HIGH FIRE
DANGER IN MUCH OF EASTERN NE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN PROGRESSING
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH (NOW OFF THE CA COAST) FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY THAT EVENING.
LARGER DISPARITIES EXIST IN THE TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW WITH GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THAT FEATURE TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR AREA. AS SUCH, HIGHEST POPS THURSDAY (40-60%) ARE
IN SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA, DECREASING WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT ACROSS THE AREA. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S WILL
SUPPORT ALL RAIN, WHICH COULD TRANSITION TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX OR
ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT IF SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT CAN
PERSIST.
ON FRIDAY, THE MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH A DEEP, CLOSED CIRCULATION EVENTUALLY
FORMING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST OR GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY. A
SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE (30-40% POPS) WITH
THAT SYSTEM FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE
OF SNOW OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX. LATEST EPS, GEFS, AND NBM DATA
INDICATE A 20-50% CHANCE OF AN INCH OR MORE SNOW FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN
SOUTHEAST NE AND SOUTHWEST IA. FOR NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
COULD BE SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS (SLIPPERY ROADS), BUT NOTHING
SIGNIFICANT. KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST FOR POTENTIAL CHANGES,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY:
A QUICK TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. CONTINUED
WARMING IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KTS. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH
ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WAFTING BY ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
WINDS WILL DECREASE IN SPEED OVERNIGHT, AND FALL MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS STARTING AT 17Z OF
20-25 KTS THAT LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. AREAS OF FOG LOOK TO BE
LESS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT COMPARED TO THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY
AREAS OF RIVER/VALLEY FOG SEEING THE BEST CHANCES -- LARGELY
NORTH AND EAST OF OMAHA INTO IOWA.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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