172
FXUS63 KOAX 271909
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
209 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
- THE BRIEF DRY PERIOD CONTINUES MONDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (90%+) RETURN LATE
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4+
INCHES MAY BRING A FLOODING CONCERN TO AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
ANOTHER GLOOMY MORNING HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AS
SKIES HAVE CLEARED SOUTH OF I-80. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN
OVER THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE LOW CIGS REDEVELOP. PATCHY FOG
SHOULD FORM AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SLIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WON'T
BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WELL MIXED. BEST
CHANCES OF THE FOG WILL BE NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
MONDAY
MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INTENSIFY IN CENTRAL
AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY IN
RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. I REMOVED THE POPS
FROM EARLIER FORECASTS AS THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE LOOKS WEAKER
THAN ORIGINALLY PROGGED. THE EARLY MORNING FOG, THOUGH THICK,
WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO PRODUCE DRIZZLE WITH NO FORCING FOR
ASCENT. WITH YET ANOTHER MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FORECAST, TEMPS WILL
FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF THE NORMAL MID-70S.
MID-WEEK SYSTEM
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, DEEP AND SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BRING NEAR CERTAIN RAINFALL TO THE AREA
(95%+). WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE FORECAST TO PUSH OVER 18,000 FEET.
THIS IS AN EXCEPTIONAL NUMBER FOUND OFTEN OVER TROPICAL OCEANS.
PWAT VALUES -- NEAR LATE- SEPTEMBER RECORDS -- WILL PEAK NEAR
2". BOTH PARAMETERS SUGGEST EFFICIENT RAINFALL. BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE SOPPING WITH 60-100%
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LIMITED IN NUMBER AND STRENGTH (MOSTLY GOOD OLD RAIN).
WEDNESDAY'S RAINFALL WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE POLO ARE SWEPT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
BY THURSDAY, THE RAIN SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHIFTING
SOUTH AS A TROF IN THE MID-LATITUDE JET DRIVES A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA.
THE QPF BULLSEYE OF TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY HAS SHIFTED NORTH ~125
MILES, WITH TOTALS OF 2-5" STILL EXPECTED. NBM PROBABILITIES OF
SEEING 2 INCHES IN 48 HOURS RANGE FROM 50-85% (BEST CHANCES FROM
COLUMBUS TO LINCOLN TO COUNCIL BLUFFS).
FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN. FLASH FLOODING IS UNLIKELY WITH LITTLE
TO NO CONVECTION EXPECTED, BUT WITH SATURATED GROUND AND CREEKS
AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH, SOME RIVERS AND CREEKS ARE LIKELY TO
PUSH ABOVE THEIR BANKS.
BEYOND
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND, ZONAL FLOW
DEVELOPS, SKIES CLEAR, AND RIVERS WILL RECEDE. SATURDAY NIGHT
MAY BRING OUR NEXT COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
LOW CIGS REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH THE
EDGE IN THE KOMA AND KLNK AREAS. CEILINGS IN THOSE AREAS ARE
FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THROUGH ABOUT 3PM AS THE CLOUD EDGE
DISSIPATES / MIGRATES.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT TO SEE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AND PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AGAIN, TOO. HAVE KEPT THE VISIBILITY ON THE
OPTIMISTIC SIDE FOR NOW BEFORE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT GROWS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
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