512
FXUS63 KOAX 272256
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
556 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- CALM AND QUIET CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN
FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- TEMPERATURES WARM THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING 100. PERIODIC
STORM CHANCES AND ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT..
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON
DEPICT MID- LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WITH SUBSEQUENT TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
NESTLED BETWEEN THE TWO, WE RESIDE UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY, WITH CALM WINDS BEGINNING OUT OF THE NORTH BEFORE
VEERING TO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW BY THIS EVENING. OVERALL, WE
ARE IN FOR A PLEASANT LATE-AUGUST DAY WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE NICEST DAY OF THE
FORECAST, SO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE PLEASANT WEATHER AND SPEND
SOME TIME OUTDOORS IF YOU CAN!
MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THE GREATER
CHANCES SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE PARTIAL LUNAR ECLIPSE. THE
INCREASING CLOUD SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING ENOUGH TO AVOID
ANOTHER MORNING OF FOG, THOUGH PATCHY FOG MAY SNEAK INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA WHERE CLOUD COVER HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING.
FRIDAY...
TWO ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, WITH THE
FIRST WORKING IN DURING THE MID- TO LATE-MORNING HOURS AS A 30 KT
LLJ NOSES INTO A WEAK ARE OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE IN EASTERN
NEBRASKA. A CORRIDOR OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER AND BRIEF, HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS,
THOUGH THE LIMITED BULK SHEAR SHOULD CAP OVERALL STORM INTENSITY.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL DECREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH POCKETS OF
SUNSHINE HELPING TO PUSH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.
THROUGH THE DAY, LEE TROUGHING WILL EMERGE ACROSS WESTERN SD/NE,
BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA. IN TURN, A MODESTLY UNSTABLE, YET
CAPPED, AIRMASS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL SD. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING
REMAIN A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THIS ROUND, GIVEN THE LACK OF
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT. RECENT CAM GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS THE
LLJ NOSES INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. IF STORMS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, A
STRONG STORM OR TWO CAN'T BE RULED OUT, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, WHERE ISOLATED POCKETS OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (UP TO
60 MPH) AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW DECAYING SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND...
WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN STORY THIS WEEKEND AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL RIDGE PULLS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS WILL PUSH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW 90S ON
SATURDAY AND MID TO UPPER 90S ON SUNDAY. CONTINUED LOW- LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BRING DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S, PUSHING HEAT INDEX VALUES TO THE UPPER 90S SATURDAY AND
AROUND 100 ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, BREEZY SOUTH- SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS GUSTS WILL WORK IN PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY WHERE GUSTS
MAY REACH 25-35 MPH.
PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXIST THIS WEEKEND AS WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PINCH BETWEEN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
AND AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH/MID-LEVEL LOW SLIDING EAST ACROSS
ND/SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AT 15%
SATURDAY EVENING, THOUGH THE BETTER FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
RESIDE TO OUR NORTH.
MONDAY, THE MID-LEVEL LOW SLIDING BY TO OUR NORTH WILL HELP PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL HELP BRING HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S, PROVIDING SOME RELIEF
FROM THE WEEKEND HEAT BUT STILL REMAINING ABOVE-AVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE IN THIS RANGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK WEEK, WITH THE RETURN OF PERIODIC SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS EVENING ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. A FEW HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS MAY MOVE OVERHEAD DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE WEST
OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN OVERNIGHT, THOUGH THEY
REMAIN LIGHT. THERE IS A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASING CHANCE OF
DEVELOPMENT, THEREFOR AVIATION IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY. TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IF THIS CHANGES. IF AVIATION
IMPACTS WERE TO OCCUR, LIGHTNING AND BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
WOULD BE POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE IN SPEED
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BECOMING GUSTY WITH WESTERN EXTENT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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