156
FXUS63 KOAX 190521
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1221 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS
UNSETTLED. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MILD IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT THU JUN 18 2026
AFTER A QUIET AND BEAUTIFUL DAY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL
BEGIN TO END FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TROUGH DIGS SOUTH
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE. THE OVERALL CHANCE OF RAIN IS LOW (15-30%) WITH
ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 80S WITH THE AID OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND
PEAKS OF SUN DURING THE DAY. A RELATIVE LULL IN RAIN IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS OUR NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHES. TEMPERATURES WILL START IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ON
SATURDAY BEFORE AN ACTIVE DAY AHEAD.
A TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THIS AIDS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME, A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED OVER OUR AREA. WITH TIME,
PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE STREAMS NORTH INTO THE REGION AS
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DEVELOP OVERHEAD. WHILE
CURRENT TIMING KEEPS THE BETTER FORCING TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES REMAINS A POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WARM INTO THE LOW 80S AS CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. BY
EVENING, EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT APPROACH OUR
AREA BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS MAY POSE A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER, WITH
DAMAGING WINDS OF PARTICULAR CONCERN. LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE, BUT THIS THREAT APPEARS
RELATIVELY LOW AT THE MOMENT. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET MAY HELP TO
FUEL ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND ANY
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BEFORE EVERYTHING PUSHES
EAST.
FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY TO BE ANOTHER CONCERN FOR SATURDAY.
RICH GULF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES NEARING 2" ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE REGION. THIS
ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL FROM ANY MESOSCALE SYSTEMS, WHERE
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN MAY FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. IN
ADDITION, ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OR BACKBUILDING OF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO FLASH FLOODING HEADING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT 1-3" OF
RAINFALL IS PROBABLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
LOCATION OF GREATEST RAINFALL TOTALS. THIS MAKES IT HARD TO
PINPOINT AREAS WHERE A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED. AS MORE
CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING GUIDANCE COMES INTO RANGE, INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN THE LOCATION OF GREATEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. A
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER FORECASTS.
BEYOND SUNDAY MORNING, FORECAST DETAILS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF SATURDAY'S SYSTEM, SUNDAY COULD BE
A COOLER AND QUIETER DAY OR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN
EITHER CASE, UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. THERE
WILL BE BREAKS IN RAIN CHANCES AT TIMES, BUT ADDITIONAL TROUGHS
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION AND HELPS TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S. AS A REMINDER, WE
ARE AT OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK OF SEVERE WEATHER, SO THESE
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MAY EVENTUALLY POSE A SEVERE WEATHER
RISK. KEEP TABS ON THE LATEST FORECASTS WITH CONTINUED ACTIVE
WEATHER EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT FRI JUN 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS MOVING IN THROUGH THE MORNING AND SOME CLOUDS AROUND
6000-8000 FT AGL BY THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW
SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS OUT OF THOSE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THEY'LL BE PRETTY SPOTTY WITH VFR
PREVAILING, SO DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION FOR NOW. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH SOUTHERLY
IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED. WINDS WILL TURN CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE DAY,
BECOMING WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CA
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