416  
FXUS63 KOAX 260837  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
337 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- A RENEWED STRETCH OF DANGEROUS HEAT IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY  
AND MONDAY, POTENTIALLY STRETCHING INTO TUESDAY. AFTERNOON  
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 105 TO 115 DEGREES.  
 
- DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, WITH RAINFALL  
POTENTIAL RETURNING LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK'S SECOND HALF.  
 
 
   
DISCUSSION  
 
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025  
 
THE FORECAST QUIETS DOWN AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES. EARLY THIS  
MORNING, SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRIMARILY JUST  
SOUTHEAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA. SOME STORMS THERE ARE EXPECTED  
TO BUMP UP AGAINST SEVERE CRITERIA. A FEW RETURNS DID LIGHT UP  
KOAX OVERNIGHT AROUND WAHOO/OMAHA AREA ON THE NOSE OF A H9  
NOCTURNAL JET, BUT THEY FALL APART NEARLY AS SOON AS THEY  
DEVELOP. AS THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INSTABILITY  
CONTINUES EAST, ATTENDANT SHOWERS WILL TAG ALONG. THE REMAINDER  
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.  
 
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, BUT  
SO FAR HAS YET TO BECOME AS DENSE AS WAS THE CASE ON FRIDAY  
MORNING WITH SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD PREVENTING COMPLETE  
RADIATIONAL COOLING.  
 
TODAY'S SUNSHINE WILL ALSO BE CONSTRAINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF  
ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING OVER THE AREA. (IT ISN'T  
CANADIAN, THIS SMOKE IS FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA.) BEYOND THE  
MILKY SMOKE, SKIES TODAY WILL BE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS  
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DRIFTS AWAY. ON TOTAL, WE'LL SEE  
MORE SUN THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE EXTRA INSOLATION AND  
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP TEMPERATURES PUSH  
2-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PRIOR AND DRY SOME OF THESE  
PUDDLES.  
   
SUNDAY AND MONDAY  
 
THE MID-LATTITUDE JET WILL BULGE NORTH AS THE RIDGE OVER THE  
SOUTHEAST BACK-BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. HEIGHTS RISE AND  
TEMPS SPIKE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER A DOG-DAY HEAT DOME.  
HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE 90S AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN THE  
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. NAEFS SHOWS LOW-LEVEL WATER CONTENT TO  
BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY ANOMALOUS AS CORN SWEAT SEASON IS IN FULL  
SWING. WARM TEMPS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL CONSPIRE TO PUSH  
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OVER 105 FOR ALL LOCATIONS. MONDAY WILL BE  
JUST AS HOT OR HOTTER.  
 
HAVE CHOSEN TO ISSUE EXTREME HEAT WATCHES FOR THE ENTIRE  
FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. (1P TO 7P). SOME OF  
THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A HEAT ADVISORY AND THE  
HOTTEST AREAS/URBAN AREAS... AND MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY  
AFTERNOON... PUSHING CLOSE TO OR ABOVE THE 110F EXTREME HEAT  
WARNING CRITERIA.  
   
TUESDAY AND BEYOND  
 
SOME AREAS WILL REMAIN HOT ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ITS TIMING. AS IT STANDS, PRECIP WILL WAIT  
UNTIL LATE ON TUESDAY WITH 40-70% POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.  
 
COOLER CONDITIONS FILL OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, THOUGH  
UNCERTAINLY SPIKES FROM TUESDAY FORWARD. CURRENT GUIDANCE  
LEAVES THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA, LEAVING REGULAR  
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER/SEVERE WEATHER AND MUCH COOLER  
CONDITIONS. FWIW, MACHINE LEARNING DOES HIGHLIGHT A (15%)  
SEVERE THREAT AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025  
 
CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE EARLIER THAN GUIDANCE  
SUGGESTED WITH THE 00Z ISSUANCE, PRIMARILY AT KOMA AND KLNK  
WERE DROPS TO MVFR ARE OBSERVED. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMES ACCORDINGLY  
FOR 06Z ISSUANCE. STILL EXPECTING GRADUAL EXPANSION NORTHWARD  
OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER 8Z, WITH POTENTIAL FOR  
LIFR AT KOMA AND KLNK THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. CEILINGS AND  
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.  
 
MAY SEE A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM AT KLNK OR KOMA, BUT MODEL  
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THIS ACTIVITY SOUTHWARD SO HAVE KEPT  
MENTIONS OUT GIVEN PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS AT 30% OR LESS.  
 
WINDS REMAIN UNDER 12KTS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE BUT WILL GRADUALLY  
SWITCH FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.  
 
 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN  
AVIATION...CASTILLO  
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