898
FXUS63 KOAX 312337
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
637 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED (30-50% CHANCE)
TONIGHT IN FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, WITH
SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE (UNDER 1 INCH).
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY (80-100%), WITH
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN
THE 0.25-1.00" RANGE FOR MOST.
- A COOL AND WET PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES (60-80%) ON
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL USHER IN A MORE AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE PATTERN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A COLD FRONT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING, BRINGING A COOLER AIRMASS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WIND GUSTS PEAKED IN THE 40-47 MPH RANGE EARLIER
TODAY, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND
ALLOWING THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT NOON. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH,
BEFORE EASING TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH OVERNIGHT. THE POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS HAS RESULTED IN A NOTABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE UPPER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, ROUGHLY 20-25 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES (AROUND 25-30% ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA) ARE EXPECTED TO LAG BEHIND THE STRONGEST WINDS,
SOMEWHAT MITIGATING OVERALL FIRE DANGER. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP WITHIN THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL LIMIT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION, KEEPING POPS
BELOW 15% WITH SPRINKLES THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOMES.
ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS, PRIMARILY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA, AS WAA STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MODEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY (500-750 J/KG OF
MUCAPE), SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW STORMS
COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL, THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE, MAKING THE CONFIDENCE IN GETTING HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER FAIRLY LOW. WITH THIS IN MIND, SPC HAS TRIMMED MUCH OF THE
AREA OUT OF THE MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER,
LEAVING JUST EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. SOME MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL
IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS, WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY EXPECTED
IN THE 0.15-0.40" RANGE.
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY, A MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, INDUCING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER WESTERN KANSAS. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY, WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
AND WAA SUPPORTING AN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. POPS WILL INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING
WIDESPREAD (90-100%) BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING, WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID 40S IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TO THE LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA.
A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TYPES IS POSSIBLE. LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY MORNING, THOUGH WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD LIMIT ANY MEANINGFUL IMPACTS. FARTHER SOUTH,
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA, A CONDITIONAL SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST. WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT MODEST
(GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 1000 J/KG MUCAPE), THE PROXIMITY OF THE
SURFACE LOW WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH CURVATURE.
THIS SUPPORTS A NON-ZERO TORNADO RISK, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND. THE EXTENT OF THIS THREAT WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, AS A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD SHIFT THE BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL SOUTH OF THE
AREA. THE SPC CURRENTLY MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
REGARDLESS OF HOW THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL PLAYS OUT, WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HREF INDICATES A
60-95% PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST HALF AN INCH OF RAIN, PEAKING IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. PROBABILITIES OF AT LEAST ONE INCH ALSO PEAK IN
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA IN THE 50-70% RANGE. EXACT TOTALS WILL LIKELY BE
QUIET VARIABLE, DEPENDING ON WHERE ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS TRACK.
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST BY EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES AGAIN POSSIBLE IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THEREAFTER. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY WILL REBOUND INTO THE 60S ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE-80,
WHILE AREAS NORTH MAY REMAIN COOLER (MID 40S TO MID 50S) DUE TO
LINGERING CLOUD COVER.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
ANOTHER POTENT DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH FROM THE FRONT RANGE
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY, AGAIN INDUCING SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER WESTERN KANSAS AND TRACKING EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE PLACEMENT
AND EXTEND OF THE WARM SECTOR, WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA. RECENT GUIDANCE TRENDS HAVE
SHIFTED THE PRIMARY WARM SECTOR FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS RANGE.
SPC CURRENTLY HIGHLIGHTS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
WITH A 15% PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE WEATHER, WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE
GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL EXHIBIT A STRONG GRADIENT, DEPENDING ON
WARM SECTOR PLACEMENT, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 40S IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA TO THE 70S IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. POPS REMAIN IN THE 60-80%
RANGE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW EARLY
SATURDAY AS COOLER AIR FILTERS IN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. POPS
DIMINISH THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM, WITH EPS/EPS-AIFS INDICATING AT 50-70%
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH.
BY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, SUPPORTING A WARMING TREND AND RETURN
TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 06Z TONIGHT, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT MVFR TO
IFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 15Z, AND
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...KG
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