132
FXUS63 KOAX 211117
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
617 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
A FEW MINOR FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY, THAT ULTIMATELY HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA TODAY, ALLOWING THE
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
WILL SUPPORT MIXING UP TO 900MB OR SO, SUCH THAT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS. MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 MPH FROM
LATE AFTERNOON TO MID-AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN, THERE
A MARGINAL THREAT OF FIRE DANGER GIVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES, DRY
VEGETATION AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, OVERALL, AN NICE AUTUMN DAY.
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NAM/GFS DIVERGING
ON THE AMOUNT COOLING AND SCOURING OF BOUNDARY MOISTURE, CREATING
A SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. COOLER NAM APPEARS
SLIGHTLY OVERDONE GIVEN FRONTAL DEPTH. ENOUGH COOLING A RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SUCH THAT LIGHT HAZE EVEN PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. WILL
LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, THOUGH STILL SEASONAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
H5 RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT
IN ADVANCE OF BROAD, LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN U.S. GRADUAL SATURATION OF ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED WED
AFTERNOON, SYNCING WITH BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING OVERNIGHT WED
INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL DRY NATURE OF ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
MITIGATING FACTOR FOR STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF AREA FRIDAY, BUT WILL HELP CARVE
A DEEP, BROAD TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. A SERIES OF UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WIND WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KOFK UNTIL ABOUT 16Z, WITH 2000' WINDS
AROUND 220 DEGREES AT 40 KNOTS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 16 TO 27 KNOTS 15-16Z, AND DIMINISHING BY 22-23Z. A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA 02-06Z. A FEW MODELS
SUGGEST THAT KLNK/KOMA COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG 06-12Z DUE TO
LIGHT WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN
THE TAF THIS FAR OUT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...FORTIN
LONG TERM...FORTIN
AVIATION...DEWALD
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