812
FXUS63 KOAX 221741
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE. HAIL
IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS THIS WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOLD INTO NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH OUR NEXT BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS STARTING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
REMNANT SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNING'S STORMS ARE EXITING TO THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WE'RE SEEING CLOUDS BREAKING UP IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE LOW OVER NORHT-CENTRAL NEBRASKA OUT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WHICH IS JUST NOW MOVING INTO KNOX, ANTELOPE, AND
BOONE COUNTIES. THIS FRONT WILL BE A FOCUS FOR A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, AND ANY CLEARING AHEAD OF STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL ONLY AID IN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIAL STORM STRENGTH. WHILE SHEAR IS MODEST ~30KT 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR, INSTABILITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 1500 J/KG.
HODOGRAPHS SHOW DECENT 0-1KM SHEAR LEADING TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR
A LOW- TOPPED SUPERCELL OR TWO. THIS COULD LEAD DO A FEW
QUARTER-SIZE HAIL REPORTS, OR DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH, BUT
IT'S A VERY MARGINAL THREAT (LEVEL 1 OUT OF 5).
ONCE STORMS CLEAR THIS EVENING, WE'LL SEE SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. A SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE
WEEKEND, STARTING WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY
WE SEE ENHANCED WARM-AIR ADVECTION AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN
ALOFT WHICH WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. WE DO SEE A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA/SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS PULLS IN
A BELT OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A FEW
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW, AROUND 20-30%. SPC
DOES HIGHLIGHT, AGAIN, A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY
DUE TO THE AMPLE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND DECENT SHEAR
PROFILE; HOWEVER, MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED DEPENDING GREATLY ON
HOW MUCH WE CAN ADVECT IN AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM.
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ON TO THE WEST COAST OUT OF
THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL ENHANCE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS EARLY NEXT WEEK, MAINTAINING ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO MIDWEEK. THIS TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS CLOSER WILL
LEAD TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEK AS WE START TO BRING IN MORE MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2026
A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AROUND THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS EXITING
TO THE EAST. WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OR BRIEF
CLEARING BETWEEN 18Z AND 21Z BEFORE A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA. BY THE
TIME STORMS DEVELOP, THE LINE SHOULD ALREADY BE EAST OF KOFK, SO
NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS AT THIS TERMINAL. KLNK AND KOMA MAY SEE
STORMS (70% CHANCE) MOVE THROUGH AROUND 20-22Z. IT LIKELY WON'T
BE A SOLID LINE OF STORMS SO THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT KLNK AND/OR
KOMA MAY BE MISSED. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR WITHIN AN HOUR AS THE
LINE MOVES FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TOWARD WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO
VFR. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD NORTHWESTERLY AS CIGS CLEAR
THROUGH THE EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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