543
FXUS63 KOAX 151858
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
158 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
AND IOWA.
- ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS RETURN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 154 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS, WITH ITS CENTER OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN THIRD. DRILLING DOWN TO
THE LOCAL AREA, A RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COMPLEX
ENVIRONMENT, HEADLINED BY AN INCOMING COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST, A
SURFACE LOW MOVING TO FARTHER EAST INTO CENTRAL IOWA, AND ANOTHER
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO CENTRAL IOWA.
THOUGH WE ARE TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STATIONARY FRONT, A
HOLE IN THE CIRRUS OVERHEAD IS LEADING TO INCREASING
DESTABILIZATION AND WARMING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AMIDST
MODEST LIFT IN THE LOWER 300 MB OF THE VERTICAL COLUMN. AN AREA
OF AGITATED CLOUDS NEAR KHSI/KGRI IS LIKELY WHAT SHORT-TERM CAM
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT, WHERE A SMALL SWATH OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD OVER
THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BULK SHEAR VALUES OF NEAR
20 KTS AND DECREASING INSTABILITY AS SURFACE MOISTURE IS MIXED
OUT WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL OF ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM,
BUT A GUST TO 60 MPH OR A QUARTER-SIZE HAIL STONE ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THE COMPETING LIFT/SUBSIDENCE OF NEARBY
SHORTWAVES/MCVS WILL ALSO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF STORMS AS WELL,
WITH THE MOST LIKELY TIMING BEING 5 PM TO 9 PM ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA.
HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME POSSIBLE AS A MCV-DRIVEN CLUSTER OF SCATTERED STORMS
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AFTER 2 AM. WE'LL BE ON THE SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE MORE HOSTILE TO STORM THE CLUSTER, BUT IT
WON'T TAKE MUCH WAVERING IN THE MCV'S EVENTUAL PATH TO GRAZE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WHERE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE POSSIBLE. TO
THE NORTH OF THOSE CHANCES, FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE AND CURRENTLY
FAVORS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA FOR SOME PATCHY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT HARD FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO SETTLE IN, BUT ITS PATCHY NATURE COULD
SURPRISE SOME MOTORISTS GETTING UP EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF TOMORROW, WE'LL BE SQUARELY BEHIND OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WITH A REFRESHINGLY COOL DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUN AS
HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. ANY PRECIPITATION
SHOULD STAY JUST TO THE WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
NEBRASKA, WITH A GOOD BREEZE OF 10-15 MPH.
MONDAY AND BEYOND:
MONDAY AND TUESDAY SEE THE RETURN OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO THE
FORECAST, WHERE POST-FRONTAL AIR IS SHUNTED BACK NORTH AND EAST AND
DEWPOINTS RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THE
MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL HAVE RETURNED TO MODEST ZONAL FLOW,
HELPING TO INCREASE EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES TO AROUND 30 KTS.
MONDAY'S CHANCES STILL LOOK TO RESIDE IN A SHORTWAVE INCOMING
FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ACTIVITY TRENDING INTO LATE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. THAT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ONLY
INCREASES TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONGER COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. OUT OF
THE TWO DAYS, TUESDAY SEEMS TO HAVE A HIGHER CEILING BASED ON
THE AVAILABLE CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS AMIDST STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT, WITH ML GUIDANCE SUGGESTING AS
SUCH.
STRONG SIGNALS FOR SEVERE WEATHER TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WE FIND OURSELVES ON THE
EASTERN FRINGE OF THE HIGH-APMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT DEVELOPS TO THE
WEST. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY LOOK TO STAY QUITE COMFORTABLE IN
THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WITH SOME MINOR RAIN CHANCES
AS WEAK SHORTWAVES OR REMNANTS OF HIGH PLAINS ACTIVITY WAFT IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2026
PESKY MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE REMAINED INTO THE AFTERNOON NEAR AND
AT KLNK/KOMA, WITH SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGESTING THAT WE SEE
CEILINGS IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS ARE BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA, STAYING LIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. BEFORE WE GET TO THAT POINT, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY NEAR
KOMA AND KLNK WHILE KOFK STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ACTIVITY.
INITIAL SIGNALS FOR OVERNIGHT SUGGEST THAT WE MAY GET AN AREA OF
FOG NORTH OF KOMA REACHING WEST TO KOFK, WITH NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page