862
FXUS63 KOAX 012024
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
224 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
DENSE, LIMITING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN HALF A MILE.
- PERIODIC, LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-30%) MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A WINTRY MIX COULD FALL AT TIMES, BUT
IS CURRENTLY FAVORED TO REMAIN LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
- MILD TEMPERATURES STICK AROUND THIS WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE
30S AND 40S THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND 40S AND 50S FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD ALLOW RIVER
ICE TO BREAK UP AND MOVE, INCREASING THE RISK OF ICE JAMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 224 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
TONIGHT AND MONDAY:
OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL IS QUICKLY DISAPPEARING THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 40S AS OF 2 PM. A SHIELD OF
LOW CLOUDS IS GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING NORTHEAST NE AND WESTERN
IA WITH LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTING THE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN
THE SAME GENERAL VICINITY OVERNIGHT. TO THE SOUTH OF THE CLOUDS
AND IN LOCATIONS OF RECENT SNOW MELT, DECREASING WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR FOG FORMATION LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH
VISIBILITIES FALLING BELOW A HALF MILE AT SOME LOCATIONS.
THE MORNING FOG AND LINGERING CLOUDS WILL SLOW HEATING MONDAY
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE 12Z GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE
PROGRESSION OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE MID-MO VALLEY
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
VORTICITY MAXIMA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED QPF
FIELDS REMAIN LIGHT AND SPOTTY IN OUR AREA, WHICH IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE LOW POPS OF 15-30% INDICATED IN THE FORECAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW PERIODS OF DEEPENING SATURATION IN THE LOWEST
5-10 KFT, BUT BELOW THE LEVEL OF ICE INTRODUCTION. AS SUCH, THE
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A WINTRY MIX TO FALL DURING PERIODS
WHEN BOUNDARY-LAYER TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. HOWEVER,
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND NOT CAUSE AN
IMPACT TO TRAVEL.
DAYTIME HIGHS COULD BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER IN SOME AREAS WITH
READINGS IN THE 30S TUESDAY, AND 30S TO LOW 40S AND WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY:
AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
THURSDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN WHILE SHIFTING INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEKEND. IN THE LOW LEVELS, WESTERLY,
DOWNSLOPE WINDS THURSDAY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONSIDERABLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FORECAST AT MANY LOCATIONS.
THE MODELS INDICATE A FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY.
THE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT ICE
COVER/DEPTH ON AREA RIVERS. HOWEVER, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING AND NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST, THE ICE
BREAK UP COULD BE A GRADUAL PROCESS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
AS OF 17Z, SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A LOW VFR
TO MVFR (FL015-035) CLOUD DECK EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST SD INTO
WEST-CENTRAL IA SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS
REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF KOFK AND KOMA THIS AFTERNOON.
AS SUCH, PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY FOR
THOSE TERMINAL LOCATIONS; HOWEVER, OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL AMENDMENTS. TONIGHT, THE
MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS INTO KOFK AND KOMA WITH SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE AT
KOFK. AT KLNK, FEWER CLOUDS AND WET GROUND FROM RECENT SNOW MELT
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SWITCHING TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST MONDAY MORNING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...MEAD
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