353
FXUS63 KOAX 161058
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
558 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER ON THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
- ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ALL
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
- COLDER AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW FREEZING
FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT WED APR 15 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT RESULTED IN SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS DEPARTING OUR REGION TO
THE EAST. IN ITS WAKE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING INTO
THE REGION. AS A RESULT, QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA. EXCELLENT
RADIATION COOLING ALLOWS TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S FOR
A COOL START TO THURSDAY. AS WE GO THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY,
OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
SUPPORTS THE RETURN OF LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.
IN RESPONSE, INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. TEMPERATURES QUICKLY WARM INTO THE 80S BY
AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES CRATER INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. DUE TO THE WARM, DRY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS, A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
BY FRIDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE
ENTERING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT MAY
BEGIN TO SLOW WITH DAYTIME HEATING, BUT THE LATEST HIGH-
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS THE COLD FRONT REACHING FAR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT BEING A BIT FASTER AND POTENTIALLY UNCERTAIN, THE
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS ALSO UNCERTAIN. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN WARM, SIMILAR TO THURSDAY, WHILE MUCH COOLER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE FAST MOVING FRONT, STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS A RISK SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE TREND
TOWARDS A FASTER FRONT, THIS THREAT MAY BE DECREASING AS A
RESULT. SHOWERS MAY LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON FRIDAY. IF PRECIPITATION CAN HANG AROUND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, A FEW SNOWFLAKES MAY MIX IN AS WELL.
THANKFULLY, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS.
AS ELUDED TO ABOVE, MUCH COLDER WEATHER BEGINS THE WEEKEND.
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA MAY SEE A SPRING FREEZE SATURDAY
MORNING. ELSEWHERE, SEES MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH THIS COLDER AIRMASS. TEMPERATURES PLUMMET FURTHER BY SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A WIDESPREAD FREEZE LIKELY. THIS FREEZE IS BEFORE
OUR TYPICAL LAST SPRING FREEZE DATE, BUT RECENT GREEN-UP OF
VEGETATION MAY RESULT IN VEGETATION DAMAGE DESPITE THIS.
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING BUILDS IN. TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK. ALL IS QUIET WEATHER-WISE, UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WHEN OUR NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER IS
FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN THE RIDGE. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ARE
LIKELY TO RETURN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 558 AM CDT THU APR 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 KTS STARTING AROUND 17-18Z. COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD AT OMA AND LNK WITH 50 KT SOUTHWEST
WINDS AT 2000 FT AGL. A WIND SHIFT TO WESTERLY AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY LOOKS TO ARRIVE AT OFK VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND
WILL WORK THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA AFTER 12Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>044-050-065.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ043.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...CA
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