700
FXUS63 KOAX 120511
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1211 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- THERE IS 20-40% CHANCE OF STORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
FEW COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND
QUARTER-SIZE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
- WET PATTERN CONTINUES WITH MORE STORM CHANCES THIS WEEKEND
INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE AT TIMES,
WITH MONDAY HAVING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL. REPEATED ROUNDS OF
STORMS WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING FLOODING THREAT.
- HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH A FEW 60S THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY 80S
TO LOW 90S MONDAY, AND THEN 60S AND 70S THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 740 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2026
THIS EVENING WE'RE WATCHING A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO OUR AREA
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, MAINLY IN NE
NEBRASKA. LOOKING AT SATELLITE, WE'VE BEEN WATCHING STORMS GO UP
IN EASTERN SD WITH GROWING CU TRAILING SOUTH ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TOWARD O'NEILL. CU HAS STRUGGLED SOUTH OF HUTCHINSON
COUNTY SO FAR, LIKELY DUE TO MORE DRY AIR THEY NEED TO OVERCOME
FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE SURFACE LOW. WE DO NOTE CU DEVELOPMENT
IN BOYD AND NE HOLT COUNTIES, THOUGH. IF ANY OF THEM CAN GET
GOING, EXPECT A FAIRLY SOLID LINE OF STORMS TO LIGHT UP AS IT
MOVES INTO NE NEBRASKA. STILL ONLY A 20-40% CHANCE OF STORMS
THOUGH.
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR 50-60+ MPH WINDS AND UP TO
QUARTER-SIZE HAIL. AS THEY CONTINUE SOUTHEAST, THOUGH, THEY WILL
ONLY ENCOUNTER MORE AND MORE DRY AIR WITH A STRENGTHENING WARM
NOSE ALOFT. WHAT WILL MORE LIKELY OCCUR IS IF A LINE OF STORMS
DEVELOP, THEY GO UP AROUND WESTERN KNOX/ANTELOPE COUNTIES, PEAK
JUST EAST NEAR NORFOLK TO ALBION BEFORE FALLING APART AS THEY
MOVE THROUGH COLUMBUS-WISNER.
WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. WE'LL SEE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRIGGER STORMS ON
AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CANADIAN
HIGH SATURDAY MID-MORNING, CONTINUING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SE
NEBRASKA AND SW IOWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE OF STORMS
WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY THE
ENVIRONMENT CAN PRODUCE WITH WARMER AIR IN PLACE IN THE LOWER
LEVELS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE HIGH MOVES IN. IF
WE HOLD ONTO CLOUD COVER INTO SATURDAY, THIS MAY HELP TO HOLD
WARMER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY,
WHILE IF WE CLEAR OUT WE MAY NOT GET THE NEEDED STEEP LAPSE
RATES. BULK SHEAR (0-6KM) OF 45 TO 55KT COULD SUPPORT SOME
BOWING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL. WITH BASES UP AROUND 9000 FT THERE IS ALMOST NO
TORNADO THREAT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EVENING CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE STORMS.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE PUSHING THE REMNANT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY (FROM TODAY) BACK NORTH OF THE KANSAS STATE LINE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS BRINGS SHOWERS AND
STORMS BACK TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE ADVANCING WARM FRONT. EXPECT
SUNDAY TO BE A FAIRLY RAINY DAY WITH A TRANSITION FROM MORE
STRATIFORM RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY MORNING.
WE SEE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WARM CONVEYOR BELT DEVELOP ACROSS THE
PLAINS FROM OKLAHOMA TO MANITOBA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD
OF A STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL WRAP INTO A DEVELOPING
SURFACE TRACKING FROM EASTERN COLORADO INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
NEBRASKA ON MONDAY. THIS IS A GOOD SET UP FOR ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FAIRLY DECENT
ALL-HAZARDS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MONDAY EVENING TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND MUCH OF IOWA.
GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGING A CLASH OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WHILE COOLER
AIR KEEPS TRYING TO PUSH SOUTH ALONG A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH FAIRLY SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT SAT SEP 12 2026
A LINE OF STORMS ARE MOVING SOUTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT,
STAYING WEST OF VALLEY, NE, MOVING INTO KLNK RIGHT AROUND 06Z.
COULD SEE BRIEF WINDS 40-50KT AHEAD OF THIS LINE, BUT MORE
LIKELY 30-35KT AS IN THE TAF. KOFK HAS CLEARED OUT FOR THE
NIGHT, BUT AS THE FRONT SLOWS AND STALLS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST IOWA, CLOUDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO LINGER AT
KOMA AND KLNK INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE SHIFTING TO
NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT, STAYING OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH THE
DAY ON SATURDAY. COULD SEE SOME MORE SCATTERED STORMS MID-
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (ENDING AROUND 00Z), BUT LOCATION
AND TIMING IS REALLY UNCERTAIN AS OF NOW. STORM CHANCES 20-30%.
WILL ADD TO TAF IN LATER PACKAGES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MCCOY
AVIATION...MCCOY
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