010
FXUS63 KOAX 031842
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
142 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGHS REACH THE 80S TODAY WITH A SMALL CHANCE (15-20%) FOR
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
- 50-70% CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT, WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. STORMS MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
- ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-80% CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA). A
FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE BOTH DAYS.
- BRIEF LULL IN STORM CHANCES SATURDAY BEFORE RESUMING SUNDAY
(30-60%) AND MONDAY (40-60%). TEMPERATURES REMAIN WARM IN THE
MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
MAIN FEATURES OF NOTE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE A SURFACE
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL SD INTO THE NE PANHANDLE
AND A COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE TX PANHANDLE. BOTH FEATURES
WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO OUR WEST, WITH A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOUNDARY BEING THE MOST LIKELY TO BRING US ANY IMPACTS.
WHILE WE'LL HAVE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN OUR AREA AHEAD OF
SAID LINE, SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK SO EXPECT OUTFLOW TO BE
RACING OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE BY THE TIME THEY GET HERE (MOST
FAVORED TIMING AROUND 9-11 PM) WITH A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND IN
INTENSITY. HOWEVER, STILL A SHOT FOR SOME STRONGER TO SEVERE
STORMS AS THEY FIRST MOVE INTO NORTHEAST NE WITH VARIOUS CAMS
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF 50-60 MPH GUSTS. HOWEVER,
BEFORE WE GET THERE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND ARE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES, SO WE MAY SEE SOME SPOTTY SHOWER AND
STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN OUR AREA LIKE WE
SEE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH (15-20% CHANCE).
BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING, THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW/TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST
WILL SLIDE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION, WE WILL LIKELY
HAVE LINGERING OUTFLOW FROM THE OVERNIGHT LINE OF STORMS ALONG
WITH STRENGTHENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT POINTING INTO THE AREA.
WITH ALL OF THAT, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY (50-80% CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA). ONCE AGAIN, DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE
(20-30 KTS IN THE 0-6 KM LAYER) SO STORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A
LITTLE DISORGANIZED AND WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO START EARLY,
INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED. HOWEVER, BOTH APPEAR TO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR PERHAPS STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS ONCE AGAIN AND A
FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE HINT AT SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH
CURVATURE WHICH COULD YIELD A SNEAKY TORNADO THREAT, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN LOW LCLS. IN ADDITION, GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD OF 1.75" WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
APPROACHING 4 KM. AS A RESULT, STORMS WILL ALSO BE EFFICIENT
RAIN- PRODUCERS AND COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IF AN
AREA RECEIVES REPEATED ROUNDS.
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR FRIDAY APPEARS TO BE A BIT HIGHER
AS SOME STRONGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW FINALLY PUSHES IN,
GIVING US SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
SETTING UP AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. WHILE
DESTABILIZATION AND STORM INITIATION MAY BE DELAYED OWING TO
MORNING CONVECTION/LINGERING CLOUDS, MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WE'LL ERODE THAT CAP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND STORMS WILL FIRE
BY THE EVENING. WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR
STORM ORGANIZATION, WE'LL SEE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS, WITH AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT A TORNADO SHOULD STORMS
REMAIN SURFACE BASED IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE IS MAXIMIZED.
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO BUILD IN FOR SATURDAY AND
SHOULD FAVOR MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY, THOUGH SOME SHORTWAVE
ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S), CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN (10% CHANCE). THE RIDGE QUICKLY
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND BRINGS US A 40-60% CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WE'LL STAY UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WELL INTO NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH VARIOUS BITS OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIDING THROUGH AND GIVING US ALMOST DAILY
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES. STILL LOTS OF DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT
THERE, BUT GIVEN THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS STAYING IN PLACE,
WE'LL LIKELY HAVE SEVERAL CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
VARIOUS SEVERE WEATHER MACHINE LEARNING ALGORITHMS GIVE US AT
LEAST A 5-10% CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS EACH DAY, THOUGH HIGHER
POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKE IT WILL BE TO OUR WEST WHERE STRONGER MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED JUN 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FAVORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT TO BKN
CLOUDS AROUND 3500 FT. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY
STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON (10-15% CHANCE), BUT CONFIDENCE IN
ONE IMPACTING A TAF SITE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION. FOR
TONIGHT, A DISSIPATING LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA, LIKELY IMPACTING OFK AROUND 06Z AND
OMA BY 11Z, THOUGH STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACT TIMING AND HOW
FAR SOUTH THE STORMS WILL MAKE IT (I.E. IF LNK WILL SEE
IMPACTS). WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS, COULD SEE 40-50 KT GUSTS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST (MORE LIKELY AT OFK) AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL
HAIL, ALONG WITH MVFR TO BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY WITH HEAVIER RAIN.
OTHERWISE, OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTS OF 18-22 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...CA
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page