655
FXUS63 KOAX 121731
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1231 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, LEADING
TO DANGEROUS WILDFIRE CONDITIONS. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM.
- WINDS WILL SHIFT AND INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING, WITH NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS OF 50-60 MPH POSSIBLE. A
HIGH WIND WARNINGS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
WEST-CENTRAL IOWA.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND WINTRY WEATHER (60-80%
POPS) IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER WILL
BRING A WARM, DRY, AND WINDY DAY TO THE AREA THURSDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS
EXPECTED TO REACH 40-45 MPH. STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND EFFICIENT
MIXING WILL SUPPORT MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING
INTO THE 60S TO LOW 70S. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
15-25% RANGE, RESULTING IN EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON THROUGH 9 PM
THURSDAY. INCREASING MID- TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVER DURING THE
AFTERNOON MAY SLIGHTLY LIMIT MIXING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA, WHICH COULD BRIEFLY TEMPER AFTERNOON WINDS. REGARDLESS,
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING, VEERING WINDS FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND USHERING IN STRONG CAA BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. A SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF GUSTS UP TO THE 50-60 MPH
RANGE APPEARS LIKELY WITH HRRR/RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS BRINGING
55-70 KTS TO THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE STRONGEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHERE SOME POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO EXCEED 60 MPH (30% PROBABILITY PER THE
HREF). THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS HOW FAR SOUTH
THESE STRONGER GUSTS WILL EXTEND. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL, A HIGH
WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WEST- CENTRAL IOWA, WITH A HIGH WIND
WATCH IN EFFECT ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR WHERE CONFIDENCE IN
WARNING-LEVEL GUSTS IS LOWER.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL
BRING COOLER CONDITIONS, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LIGHT POPS (30-40%) RETURN TO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA FRIDAY EVENING AS
BRIEF DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE IS
RATHER LIMITED WITH THE PASSAGE, WITH A 20-40% PROBABILITY OF
HALF AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...
THIS WEEKEND, AN AMPLIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT MILD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY,
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST NE AND THE 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE LATE
SATURDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
POPS CURRENTLY PEAK AROUND 60-80% SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BEGIN AS RAIN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW, AT LEAST ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, BY SUNDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM BOTH
THE GEFS AND EPS/EPS-AIFS REMAINS CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING THE HIGHEST
SNOW PROBABILITIES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WITH PROBABILITIES
DECREASING SOUTHWARD. THE EPS/EPS-AIFS SUGGESTS A 50-70% PROBABILITY
OF AT LEAST 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHILE THE
GEFS INDICATES PROBABILITIES IN THE 30-50% RANGE.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN, PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY AS A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE LOW. EPS/EPS-AIFS GUIDANCE INDICATES AN 70-90%
PROBABILITY OF WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 40 MPH AND 20-40%
PROBABILITY OF GUSTS REACHING 58 MPH. BLOWING SNOW COULD BECOME
A CONCERN, ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS CURRENTLY APPEAR LIKELY
TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CORRIDOR WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL
PROBABILITIES JUST AFTER SNOWFALL EXITS THE REGION. REGARDLESS,
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ONE TO MONITOR, ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITH
TRAVEL PLANS THIS WEEKEND.
MONDAY AND BEYOND...
PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP MONDAY'S HIGHS
GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE 20S AND 30S. THE COOLER CONDITIONS
WILL BE SHORT- LIVED, HOWEVER, AS BROAD RIDGING BEGINS TO NOSE
INTO THE REGION BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY
REACHING THE 60S AND 70S BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE WARMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST, AS BOTH THE CPC 6-10 DAY
AND 8-14 DAY OUTLOOKS CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 60-80% RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2026
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON,
REACHING SPEEDS OF 40 TO 45 KTS AT TIMES. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING,
BRINGING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL REACH
KOFK BY 02Z AND KOMA AND KLNK BY 04. STRONG WINDS WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 TO 60 MPH. LLWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 01-04Z AT KOMA.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ011-012-
015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ044-045-
050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
NEZ050>053-065>068.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ043-055-
056-069-079-080-090-091.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY
FOR IAZ043-055-056.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR IAZ055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR
IAZ069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...WOOD
AVIATION...KG
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