491
FXUS63 KOAX 181902
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
202 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND STORMS ARE RETURN LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TO BE SEVERE IN
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NEAR THE NE/KS BORDER.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LOW-END POTENTIAL
(5-10% CHANCE) FOR ONE TO BE SEVERE.
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
INCREASING INTO THE 80S. PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES (15-25% CHANCE)
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 157 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES RIDGING BEGINNING TO
BUILD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, WITH WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW POURING IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS. TAKING
A LOOK AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PLACE JUST SOUTH OF
THE NE/SD BORDER REGION INTO NORTHERN IOWA WHILE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA, WHERE
MODEST SURFACE PRESSURE RISES CONTINUE. A SWATH OF SHALLOW
CUMULUS IS IN PLACE OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA, WITH
LITTLE CAPPING OVERHEAD. WIND/THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT SHOW POTENTIAL FOR WIND/HAIL WITH A STORM MODE THAT
WOULD GROW UPSCALE QUICKLY. THOUGH THERE IS NO INHIBITION, WE
ARE RELYING ON MODEST SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO KEEP THE LID ON ANY STORM CHANCES IN
THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
HAVE RECOVERED WELL DESPITE INITIAL CLOUDINESS TODAY, WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO PUSH A BIT FURTHER TO INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S
ACROSS THE AREA, WITH INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS CONTINUING TO THE MAIN CONCERN
OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST.
A SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS WITH A
STRENGTHENING BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHEAST, WITH THAT BOUNDARY
FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS OVER THE COURSE OF THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ADDITIONAL LIFT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
IS TO LEAD TO SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT, SHIFTING EASTWARD LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS AND DECAYING WHILE IT DOES SO.
CONVECTIVE REMNANTS FROM IT ALONGSIDE NEW STORM INITIATION REPRESENT
THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LOCALLY, WITH
THE KANSAS ACTION HOLDING THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY
THAT COULD GLANCE OUR AREA. AS WE PUSH INTO THE EVENING, THE LLJ
WILL NOSE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, HELPING THE
STORMS INITIATE AND SUSTAIN THEMSELVES. CURRENTLY THE BEST
CONVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE JUST SOUTH OF THE NE/KS BORDER BUT IS CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE REMAINING SHOWERS WAFTING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST MEANWHILE FAVOR CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS THEY WALK DOWN THE
MAIN THETA-E GRADIENT. ALL IN ALL, THE MORNING CONVECTION HAS
LIMITED OUR CHANCES TO ONLY BEING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF OUR AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY, BUT IT'LL BE CLOSE ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDES.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS
IN CENTRAL NEBRASKA, SPURRED ON BY LEFTOVER LIFT FROM FARTHER
DISPLACED HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION, THOUGH TIMING HAS BEEN SHIFTING
BASED ON HOW OVERNIGHT SHOWERS TRANSPIRE. THOSE CHANCES WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, THOUGH THEIR CEILING WILL BE
LIMITED BY DECREASING INSTABILITY DUE TO THE TIMING DIURNALLY
WITH MARGINALLY-SEVERE WIND AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS
BEFORE DIMINISH BY THE EVENING HOURS.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
THURSDAY TAKES A STEP TOWARDS THE QUIETER SIDE OF THE PATTERN WITH
INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE TO THE WEST TAKING OVER. WE'LL SEE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES THAT PEAK FRIDAY (MID-TO-UPPER 80S),
WAVERING A BIT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINOR RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO
DOT THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH NO PARTICULAR DAY BEING A HOME
RUN FOR RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE AUG 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
AT ALL THREE SITES CURRENTLY AHEAD OF A WIND SHIFT THAT
CURRENTLY SITS JUST NORTH OF KOFK. ALONG THAT WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY, MVFR CEILINGS AT FL023 ARE HOLDING ON WITH THE
COVERAGE LIKELY TO DECREASE AS IT SHIFTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING AND TURN NORTHEASTERLY,
WITH AREAS OF PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP FOR 2-3 HOURS AFTER
11Z, WITH KOMA BEING THE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
FORECAST ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING,
MOVING THROUGH KOFK AROUND 12Z BEFORE ARRIVING TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST AT KLNK/KOMA CLOSER TO 16-18Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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