761
FXUS63 KOAX 061841
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
141 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RIVER FLOODING GRADUALLY COMES TO AN END THIS EVENING.
- 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK FOR AREAS THAT
WERE HARD HIT WITH LAST WEEK'S FLOODS. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. WINDY
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SATURDAY AND MAY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 141 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
18Z RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT H5
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK RIDGING IS SEEN OVER PORTIONS OF
COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS, WHILE TO THE NORTH, A SHORTWAVE
TROF AND ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS OBSERVED OVER MANITOBA. THE FEATURE
HAS SPUN UP A 996MB SFC LOW, WHILE A SFC BOUNDARY FROM IT EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO MUCH OF WESTERN MINNESOTA, EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SFC BOUNDARY AND LITTLE TO
NO CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP US WARM TO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.
THE LAST OF THE RIVER FLOODING IS SEEN AT THE BIG BLUE RIVER AT
BEATRICE TOO: EXPECT THE STAGE HEIGHT TO DROP TO ACTION IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL FINALLY
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, AND COUPLED
WITH THE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING, SHOULD SEE SOME FOG DEVELOP
PRIMARILY ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA. HREF
GUIDANCE VARIES FROM A 30 TO 50% CHANCE FOR FOG FORMATION DURING
THAT TIMEFRAME WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST IOWA.
LOWS TONIGHT COOL TO THE 50S.
LINGERING FOG SHOULD BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. EXPECT
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM ALBERTA SLOWLY SLIDES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE A TAD COOLER AS
WE'LL BE BEHIND THE MAIN SFC COLD FRONT NOW, BUT STILL SHOULD BE
PLEASANT AS MOST AREAS SEE 70S AND LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH SHOULD BE SITTING OVER THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE TRIES TO SPARK OFF
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON HOURS, LARGELY FORCED BY SOME H8 WAA ROUNDING THE
BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH. HOWEVER, ACTIVITY MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
SFC GIVEN THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR SEEN IN FORECAST BUFKIT SOUNDINGS.
HIGHS WARM TO THE 70S.
AN H8 BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. STRONG WAA AND A 30 TO 40 KT LLJ COULD HELP FORCE SOME
SHOWERS OR STORMS. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE, POPS OF 15 TO 30% ARE
FORECAST FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING PRIMARILY NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
VERDIGRE TO TEKAMAH TO MISSOURI VALLEY. HIGHS REBOUND TO THE LOW
80S. EXPECT TO SEE SOME BREEZINESS TOO AS A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
SETS UP AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.
MODELS DEPICT THE H5 PATTERN WITH AN INTENSIFYING LONGWAVE TROF
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ON SATURDAY. JUST AHEAD OF THE FEATURE,
SHOULD SEE A SFC LOW SPIN UP AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS
AND MINNESOTA. WHILE THE FEATURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA, THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND PBL MIXING INTO A 45 TO 50 KT H8 LLJ
WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS. EXPECT GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH, AND A
FEW ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION,
PARTICULARLY IN FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE BULK OF GEFS AND EPS
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
TOO. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON FIRE WEATHER THAT DAY, ESPECIALLY
IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WHERE WE COULD SEE RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS
MET. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MONDAY, COOLING TEMPERATURES TO THE 60S AND 70S. PRECIP
CHANCES ARRIVE TOO FOR MONDAY AT 15 TO 20%, BUT CONSIDERABLE
SPREAD IS SEEN AMONGST MODEL GUIDANCE REGARDING TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF FEATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE OCT 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION
OF THE TAF CYCLE. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FROM MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KTQE
TO KBIE FROM 06 TO 13Z. WHILE CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPING AT
THE KOMA TERMINAL REMAINS LOW WITH THIS ISSUANCE (10-20%), HAVE
SIGNALED POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT FROM 10Z-13Z BUT KEPT CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY IN VFR. SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 12 KTS OR
LESS WILL BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT, THEN SWITCH TO NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER 06Z. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY BUT STILL UNDER 12 KTS BY THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...CASTILLO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page