904
FXUS63 KOAX 220455
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1155 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH 35 TO 40 MPH GUSTS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING, BEFORE TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING
HOURS. AREAS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER PERSIST OVER EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA TODAY.
- COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
- WARMING TREND RETURNS FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
SHORT TERM
/TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
04Z GOES-19 NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SHOWS A FEW HIGH BASED CLOUDS
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER WARM
AT THIS HOUR WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. 04Z
METARS SHOW A SFC COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH, WITH ITS LOCATION APPROXIMATELY LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM
NEAR STORM LAKE, IOWA TOWARD SIOUX CITY, IOWA, TO VALENTINE,
NEBRASKA. AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA,
SHOULD SEE STRONG COLD ADVECTION RESULT IN TEMPS PLUMMETING TO 40S
TO LOW 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE COLD AIR SHOULD HELP PUSH DOWN TO THE
SFC A RELATIVELY NARROW 30-35KT CORRIDOR OF MOMENTUM FROM NEAR H9
AND H8. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40
MPH NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO 30 TO 50% NEAR AND
BEHIND THE FRONT, THE EXTREMELY DRY AND CURED FUELS WILL STILL LEAD
TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS, SO HAVE CONTINUED THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH 4AM. EXPECT
DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH ONLY LOW TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDINESS.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS WE'LL
STILL HAVE COLD ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE HELPING BRING DOWN THE NARROW
CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL WINDS. DESPITE RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE MID
60% RANGE, AREAS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR SEWARD TO HICKMAN TO
NEMAHA MAY FLIRT WITH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA FOR A 2 TO 3 HR
DURATION AFTER 15Z GIVEN THE NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH OVER
THE AREA COUPLED WITH THE EXTREMELY DRY FUELS. IT'S WORTH NOTING
THAT THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA COULD HAMPER THE AMOUNT OF MIXING
WE ACHIEVE. REGARDLESS, STILL EXPECT AREAS OF VERY HIGH FIRE
DANGER IN EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA FOR TODAY. HIGHS
WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. WINDS
LARGELY SUBSIDE AFTER 7PM AND LOWS COOL TO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW
30S.
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROF WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE WILL TRY TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY LITTLE IF ANY LOW LEVEL SATURATION BELOW 3KM SO
NOT REALLY THINKING MUCH OF THIS WILL REACH THE SFC. HAVE KEPT LOW
NBM POPS OF ONLY 15 TO 25% FOR LIGHT RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR MALCOM TO DECATUR. HIGHS MONDAY REACH
THE MID 50S UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, WHILE LOWS COOL TO THE MID
30S.
LONG TERM
/TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ANOTHER WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE 1000-500 MB THERMAL RIDGE ONCE AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE 60S AND 70S TUESDAY, MID 70S
TO LOW 80S WEDNESDAY, AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS FOR THURSDAY.
THE COMBINATION OF DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL LEAD TO FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS, PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY
APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH MOST CONCERN AS NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20
TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A SFC FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER H5 DISTURBANCE ENTERING THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING RESULTING IN 20 TO 40% CHANCE FOR A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY REMAIN IN THE 50S AND WARM TO
NEAR 60F BY SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. LLWS WILL PREVAIL AT
KOMA AND KLNK INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
BRINGS 40-50 KT GUSTS TO FL015. CALM SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
PERSIST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT WINDS TO NORTHERLY WITH INCREASING
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. GUST OF 25-35 KTS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND
THE FRONT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY CALMING
INTO THE EVENING. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-
030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-
079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...CASTILLO
AVIATION...WOOD
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