409
FXUS63 KOAX 242330
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
530 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW (40-60% CHANCE) ARRIVES INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH ANY SNOW STAYING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM ALBION TO PLATTSMOUTH BEFORE
EXITING BY 10 PM.
- HIGHS CONTINUE CLIMBING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK, PEAKING FRIDAY IN THE 60S/70S, BEFORE COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND ADDITIONAL SHOTS AT PRECIPITATION RETURN THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 116 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON FEATURES A POTENT MID/UPPER
SHORTWAVE PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM ONTARIO INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION, SQUASHING THE RIDGE TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND STEERING
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA. DRILLING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE, A RECENT HAND ANALYSIS HAS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE ARCING UP INTO
MINNESOTA, BRINGING A WARMER WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS THANKS
TO GENTLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW. SNOWPACK CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MELT AWAY
WITH THE WARMTH, BUT IT IS STILL GREATLY AFFECTING TEMPERATURES
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FELL. ALONG THAT STRIPE, HIGHS ARE ONLY
FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 30S IN WESTERN INTO CENTRAL IOWA,
WHILE 40S AND JUST OVER 50 DEGREE HIGHS WILL BE THE PEAK (NOT TO
MENTION THE MID-TO-UPPER 50S TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE BAND).
WHAT THIS SNOWMELT IS ALSO DOING, IS INCREASING THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. THOUGH IT HAS TO COUNTERACT
DRY AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE, THIS INCREASING MOISTURE HAS
ALREADY PUSHED DEWPOINTS ABOVE THE FORECASTED LOW FOR OVERNIGHT. AS
A RESULT, PATCHY FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE -- ESPECIALLY FOR SNOW-
COVERED AREAS (20-30% CHANCE).
ONCE THE SUN RISES, ANY PATCHY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
DISSIPATE AND WE'LL SEE CLOUD COVER INCREASING IN ANTICIPATION
OF THE PAIN WEATHER-MAKER FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST. AT
THE SURFACE, YOU'LL BE ABLE TO TRACK A SURFACE LOW TRACKING
FROM NORTHEAST WYOMING TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION GOES, SHORT-TERM MODELS FAVOR TWO AREAS -- ONE
STAYING AS RAIN AND KEPT CLOSE BUT JUST NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW, AND THE OTHER AS A LARGELY SNOW ALONG THE NEBRASKA/SOUTH
DAKOTA BORDER INTO FAR EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THE
OVERALL LIFT IN THE COLUMN WILL LARGELY BE CENTERED BETWEEN THE
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM
THE IMPINGING SHORTWAVE, INTERSECTION THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
AT ROUGHLY 550 MB. OVERALL QPF HAS DECREASED WITH RECENT MODEL
RUNS, BUT THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD OVER RECENT RUNS OF MODEL DATA. FOCUSING ON THE
NORTHERN AREA, MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS SNOW
(ESPECIALLY NORTH NEAR THE SD BORDER AND INTO IOWA), BUT THE
STRONG WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PUSH A SHALLOW PORTION THE
PROFILE TO AROUND 32 DEGREES. THIS WILL EAT AWAY AT SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK, BUT COULD STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH
ICE TO MAKE ELEVATED SURFACES, SIDEWALKS, AND SOME BRIDGES
SLIPPERY. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, TRAVELERS HEADING NORTH ON I-29
WILL NEED TO SLOW DOWN FOR THE HALF INCH THAT FALLS IN FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA.
TIMING THINGS OUT, DRY AIR WILL GET BEAT IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA JUST
AFTER NOON, WHILE BETTER RAIN/SNOW CHANCES MAKE IT TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA CLOSER TO 5 PM. FROM THERE, ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW
IS QUICKLY SWEPT SOUTHEASTWARD BY 10 PM. WHILE AMOUNTS ON THE GROUND
AND IN RAIN GAUGES WON'T EXCEED 0.1", SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL
MAKE ANY WET SURFACES SLICK WITH BLACK ICE.
THURSDAY AND BEYOND:
THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINING FORECAST HAS US BACK ON THE SEE-SAW
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, CLIMBING TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK
BEFORE BEING TAKEN DOWN A FEW PEGS THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE
50S/60S THURSDAY TURN TO 60S/70S FRIDAY, WITH INCREASING WINDS
AND SOME FIRE POTENTIAL IF WE'RE ABLE TO WORK AWAY SOIL MOISTURE
FROM THE SNOW. INTO THE WEEKEND, A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES ARE STILL
ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE LATTER OF
WHICH APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/SNOW, DEPENDING ON
WHEN IT ARRIVES. BEYOND THAT, MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE INTO NEXT
WEEK, WITH DECENT POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK
SHORTWAVES SHED THEMSELVES OFF OF A CALIFORNIA COAST CUTOFF
LOW.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST TUE FEB 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEAKENING
NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. A GRADUAL
VEERING OF THE WINDS TOWARDS THE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM RESULTS IN LOWERING CEILINGS WITH
TIME BUT CEILINGS REMAIN VFR. RAIN AND SNOW BEGINS TO ENTER THE
REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...CHEHAK
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