132  
FXUS63 KOAX 211117  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
617 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
A FEW MINOR FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY, THAT ULTIMATELY HAVE  
LITTLE IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER. SURFACE HIGH WILL  
MOVE TO THE EAST OF FORECAST AREA TODAY, ALLOWING THE  
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE  
WILL SUPPORT MIXING UP TO 900MB OR SO, SUCH THAT MAXIMUM  
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED IN MOST  
AREAS. MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS 25-30 MPH FROM  
LATE AFTERNOON TO MID-AFTERNOON. ONCE AGAIN, THERE  
A MARGINAL THREAT OF FIRE DANGER GIVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES, DRY  
VEGETATION AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, OVERALL, AN NICE AUTUMN DAY.  
 
ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT  
IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE. NAM/GFS DIVERGING  
ON THE AMOUNT COOLING AND SCOURING OF BOUNDARY MOISTURE, CREATING  
A SUBSTANTIAL SPREAD IN MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. COOLER NAM APPEARS  
SLIGHTLY OVERDONE GIVEN FRONTAL DEPTH. ENOUGH COOLING A RESIDUAL  
MOISTURE SUCH THAT LIGHT HAZE EVEN PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP. WILL  
LEAVE OUT OF GRIDS FOR NOW. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL COLD AIR  
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN COOLER MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND  
TUESDAY, THOUGH STILL SEASONAL FOR LATE OCTOBER. NO PRECIPITATION  
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
H5 RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT  
IN ADVANCE OF BROAD, LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS  
WESTERN U.S. GRADUAL SATURATION OF ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED WED  
AFTERNOON, SYNCING WITH BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING OVERNIGHT WED  
INTO THURSDAY. INITIAL DRY NATURE OF ATMOSPHERE WILL BE  
MITIGATING FACTOR FOR STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. SHORT  
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF AREA FRIDAY, BUT WILL HELP CARVE  
A DEEP, BROAD TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. A SERIES OF UPSTREAM  
DISTURBANCES WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN FRIDAY  
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE  
ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN  
NORMAL, WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SUN OCT 21 2018  
 
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WIND WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN.  
LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KOFK UNTIL ABOUT 16Z, WITH 2000' WINDS  
AROUND 220 DEGREES AT 40 KNOTS. OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS  
INCREASING TO 16 TO 27 KNOTS 15-16Z, AND DIMINISHING BY 22-23Z. A  
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA 02-06Z. A FEW MODELS  
SUGGEST THAT KLNK/KOMA COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG 06-12Z DUE TO  
LIGHT WINDS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN  
THE TAF THIS FAR OUT.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...FORTIN  
LONG TERM...FORTIN  
AVIATION...DEWALD  
 
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