818
FXUS63 KOAX 162239
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
439 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMTH LINGERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND
50S FOR MOST OF THE AREA. A BRIEF BLAST OF COLD THURSDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES REBOUND FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED THURSDAY, WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN.
WHILE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED, ANY FALLING SNOW
WITH GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
- WIND SPEEDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THURSDAY, WHERE WIND GUSTS MAY REACH 40-60 MPH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A WEAK, DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY CREPT ACROSS THE REGION FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY. DESPITE TURNING WINDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DID LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ACTUALLY COOLING TEMPERATURES. BY 2 PM, MOST THERMOMETERS
PUSHED INTO THE UPPER 40S OVER WESTERN IOWA, WITH THE MID 50S AND A
FEW 60S REACHED IN EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
WARM AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AS
AFTERNOON HIGHS ONCE AGAIN PUSH INTO THE 50S. DRY WEATHER WILL
PREVAIL UNTIL THE A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
30 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE, THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A SWATH OF RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE FAIRLY LOW, GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.25", THERE IS
STILL A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT LEAST A
LITTLE BIT OF RAIN. A FEW SNOWFLAKES CAN'T BE RULED OUT EITHER,
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AS COLDER AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
WHILE THE PRECIP MAY BE NEGLIGIBLE, THE WIND WILL NOT BE. BLUSTERY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES, WITH GUSTS UP 40-60 MPH
POSSIBLE. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THURSDAY FOR THE
AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST GUSTS. SO YOU MAY WANT
TO PUT AN EXTRA STAKE IN THE BOTTOM OF YOUR INFLATABLE SANTA,
ESPECIALLY IF YOU LIVE WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS, THERE REMAINS SOME SIGNAL FOR POST
FRONTAL LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE BETTER CHANCE REMAINS OFF TO OUR
NORTHEAST, AND WINDS WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND, SHOULD LIGHT
SNOW OCCUR, A PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HIGHS IN THE 30S WILL LIKELY BE REACHED EARLY ON THURSDAY, AS
TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BY THE EVENING, MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE IN THE 20S, THOUGH IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS, WITH THE WIND. OVERALL, IT LOOKS LIKE A
GOOD DAY TO WRAP YOURSELF IN YOUR COZIEST BLANKET AND MIX UP SOME
HOT COCOA.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND...
THANKFULLY, WE SEE A QUICK REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY, AS WE
BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 40S. QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE MORE ACTIVE PART OF THE
JET STREAM REMAINING WELL TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY PLEASANT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN 40S-50S AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 434 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH IS VEERING WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY. LLWS IS EXPECTED AT KOMA AND KLNK
THIS EVENING AS WINDS NEAR FL020 REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AT 35
KTS. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. FOG SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF
THE TERMINALS, THOUGH THERE IS A LOW (20% CHANCE) OF FOG WORKING
INTO KOMA BY 13-15Z. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN THIS OCCURRENCE
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12-18 KTS AND GUSTS OF 22-32 KTS, WITH THE
STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED AT KOFK. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL WORK
TOWARDS KOFK JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-
065-066-078-088.
IA...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON FOR IAZ043.
DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...WOOD
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