513  
FXUS63 KOAX 180843  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
343 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2020  
   
..UPDATED FORECAST DISCUSSION
 
 
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2020  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:  
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT WARM AND DRY  
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. THAT SAID, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR  
SOME SPRINKLES EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST  
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL NOON. AMOUNTS WOULD BE  
LESS THAN 0.05 INCHES IF ANYTHING MANAGES TO DEVELOP.  
 
BEYOND THE SMALL CHANCE AT SPRINKLES, SUNSHINE OBFUSCATED BY  
SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL  
RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS OVER THIS WEEKEND AS IT'S  
FORCED EASTWARD BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW COMING ON SHORE OVER  
THE WEST COAST. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW  
DAYS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES INCREASE FROM THE LOW 70S TO THE LOW 80S  
ON SUNDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE  
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE SURFACE HIGH  
OVER THE EASTERN US. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR WIND GUSTS  
AROUND 35 MPH ON SUNDAY. HAD SOME DISCUSSION WITH NEIGHBORING  
OFFICES TO BUMP GUSTS HIGHER. BUT, WE HAD ALREADY INCREASED THEM  
BY ABOUT 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND DECIDED WE WERE  
CONTENT. IT WILL BE SOMETHING WE WATCH CLOSELY. MAY ALSO NEED TO  
BUMP UP TEMPERATURES TOO AS STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS COULD LEAD TO A  
LARGE MIXED LAYER. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING AS THE  
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. THERE IS  
SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN, BUT THE BEST CONDITIONS FOR THAT SHOULD  
REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA.  
 
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:  
MID-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW WITH RISING 500 MB HEIGHTS SHOULD LEAD TO  
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION  
CENTER (CPC) SHOWS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES  
OVER THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. FOR THE AREA, THAT WOULD MEAN  
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S. CPC ALSO SHOWS BELOW NORMAL CHANCES  
FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE SAME PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT  
DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IN HOW THEY RESOLVE THE  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CURRENTLY KNOWN AS TWENTY-TWO.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)  
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2020  
 
CLOUDS WITH BASES FL050 TO FL100 WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND  
INTO AT LEAST LATE FRIDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL VARY FROM SCT TO  
BKN. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT, BUT OTHERWISE  
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS. SMOKE ALOFT IS UP TO AS HIGH AS FL200, BUT  
ABOVE THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH SMOKE. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KNOTS  
OVERNIGHT, AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO FRIDAY.  
WINDS MAY BE A BIT STRONG AT KOFK TOMORROW BY NOON, IN THE 10 TO  
15 KNOT RANGE.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
DISCUSSION...FAJMAN  
AVIATION...MILLER  
 
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