229
FXUS63 KOAX 231119
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
619 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019
AT 333 AM, SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. COMBINE THIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S, AND IT'S NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE TUMBLED INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 50S ALREADY THIS MORNING. BY DAYBREAK, WE COULD EVEN
SEE A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TOUCH THE UPPER 40S. DUE TO
THE RAIN OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS AND STRONG COOLING, THERE WERE A
FEW PATCHES OF RADIATIONAL FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING. SUSPECT
THESE WILL SPREAD SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CAN'T RULE
OUT THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OR SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE FOG, A MORE EXPANSIVE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IS UNLIKELY.
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FAIR WEATHER, AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NE/IA BORDER INTO
MISSOURI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
NEAR 80 DEGREES.
THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE (<15%) FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE NOSE OF A LLJ IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE THE WEATHER SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL TONIGHT.
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
COMBINE THIS WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT, AND YOU
HAVE THE RECIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY EVENING.
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION
(INCLUDING SUPERCELLS), WITH > 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE, 0-6 KM SHEAR
AROUND 40 KT AND RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SRH (SFC-1 KM)
VALUES IN THE 150 TO 200 RANGE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO. STORM INITIATION IS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
5 PM AND 8 PM, WITH THE GREATEST RISK EXPECTED ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL (PING PONG
BALLS OR LARGER), WITH A SECONDARY RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A COUPLE
WARNINGS IS MODERATE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY,
USHERING IN MORE FAIR WEATHER AND PROBABLY THE MOST AGREEABLE DAY
OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S, AND WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S, HUMIDITY WON'T BE A CONCERN. SHOULD BE A
GOOD DAY/EVENING TO PROP THE WINDOWS OPEN FOR A BIT.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR ACTIVE WEATHER LATER IN THE
WORKWEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST
ALLOWING MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
IMPLIES MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. PINNING DOWN ANY PERIODS FOR THE
HIGHEST RAIN POTENTIAL IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RATHER
CHAOTIC PATTERN OF SHORTWAVES COMING OUT OF THE WEST.
DESPITE THE ACTIVE PATTERN, PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY
KEEP THE TREND OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES GOING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. SEE THE LATEST 6-10 & 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOKS
(WHICH STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF OCTOBER), IF YOUR A STATISTICS AFICIONADO AND WANT TO SEE
IMPRESSIVELY HIGH PROBABILITIES. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WE CAN
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. THESE TEMPERATURE COULD FEEL
UNSEASONABLY MUGGY AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY RETURNING TO
THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER 70S.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019
FOG SETTLED INTO THE KOMA AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING, AND WAS
LOCALLY DENSE. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME FOG FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS, WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES MOST DENSE AROUND KOMA.
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVED TO VFR WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
SHORT TERM...ALBRIGHT
LONG TERM...ALBRIGHT
AVIATION...MILLER
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