984
FXUS63 KOAX 182310
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
610 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL-ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGHS TODAY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S OVER OUR FAR SOUTHWEST
WITH A FEW CLOUDS.
- TEMPERATURES WARM TO THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, AND A FEW RECORDS COULD BE BROKEN.
- AREAS OF VERY HIGH TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME FIRE DANGER ARE
FORECAST FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, DRIVEN
MAINLY BY DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO FEATURE A STRONG
MID/UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CA/AZ/NV BORDER REGION, WHICH
CONTINUES SPILLING NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS AS THE BROAD TROUGH OVER IT CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE
EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, WE'VE BEEN FEELING EVERY BIT OF THE
WARM FRONT THAT PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING,
HELPING TEMPERATURES REACH THE 60S AND WELL INTO 70S CLOSER TO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. OVERNIGHT, A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE WILL GLANCE THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA, BRINGING LOW-END CHANCES (LESS THAN 10% CHANCE) FOR A
SPRINKLE OR TWO UP IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. GENERALLY
QUIET WINDS ARE SET TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, WHERE AN
EQUALLY BEAUTIFUL DAY IS SET TO SPOIL US, WITH WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST. SOME LOWER-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER FROM THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO IOWA, WHILE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN OVER THE REST OF THE AREA.
FRIDAY AND BEYOND:
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, THE MAIN MID/UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO
FLATTEN OUT WHILE MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THE REMNANTS ANCHORED
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BEFORE IT IS REPLACED BY POTENTIALLY
ANOTHER RIDGE NEXT WORK WEEK. BEFORE IT DOES SO, WARM CONDITIONS ARE
SET TO HIT TO MAXIMIZE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WHERE RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STRIKING DISTANCE THANKS TO THE OVERSPREADING OF
THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN HANGING OUT OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. HIGHS ARE SET TO REACH THE 70S AND 80S FRIDAY, BEFORE
TOPPING OUT IN THE MID-TO-UPPER 80S TO EVEN 90 DEGREES SATURDAY
(WOW!). AS THE SAME TIME THAT TEMPERATURES RISE, HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE DROPPING, DOWN INTO THE 15-25% RANGE FOR EASTERN NEBRASKA
WHILE IOWA STILL HOLDS ONTO SOME VALUES IN THE 30S AT THEIR LOWEST.
WINDS WILL BE OF CONCERN, BUT CERTAINLY NOT AS MUCH AS THEY HAVE
BEEN RECENTLY. GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH FRIDAY WILL INCREASE TO 25-35 MPH
AT THEIR STRONGEST SATURDAY, COMBINING WITH THE DRY WEATHER TO
CREATE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
THE MAIN MECHANISM THAT WILL FLATTEN THE PATTERN ARRIVES IN THE FORM
OF A SHORTWAVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, SLIGHTLY INCREASING WINDS
IN ANTICIPATION OF ITS ARRIVAL BEFORE GREATLY INCREASING SUNDAY WHEN
IT BRINGS COOLER AIR SOUTHWARD. THOUGH STILL ABOVE NORMAL,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN INTO THE 50S AND 60S SUNDAY, AND
INTO THE 50S COMPLETELY MONDAY. WITH POOR SOURCING FOR ANY DECENT
COLUMNAR MOISTURE, DRY WEATHER IS STILL SET TO HOLD THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST ONLY BEING DISRUPTED BY QUICK-HITTING, LOW
QPF CHANCES AT SPRINKLES AS SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AND
THEN NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 605 PM CDT WED MAR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS
MAY BECOME VARIABLE FOR COUPLE HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE
RETURNING TO THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT, LIKELY UNDER 12 KTS, THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...KG
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