825
FXUS63 KOAX 011127
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
527 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WEATHER REDEVELOPS AS CLOUDS THIN OUT TODAY, WITH
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FREEZING FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT (30%
CHANCE) ALONG A LINE FROM O'NEILL TO BEATRICE.
- A COOLER FRIDAY IS FORECAST, WITH CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX
(15-25%) PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON,
BEFORE DISSIPATING TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 6 PM.
- TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND INTO THE 40S AND 50S THIS WEEKEND
WITH LARGELY DRY AND WARMER-THAN-AVERAGE WEATHER INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW:
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING FEATURES A BROAD AREA OF LIFT
ENTERING THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE EAST OF ITS ASSOCIATED
TROUGH, WHILE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS SPILLS
IN BEHIND THE TROUGH EXITING THE EASTERN THIRD. A STUBBORN DECK
OF STRATUS OVERHANGS THE EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA, DEPICTED IN
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS IMAGERY, AND IS ALSO HARBORING AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG FROM NELIGH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 20S, SOME SLICKNESS IS POSSIBLE AS THE
FOG TRIES TO FREEZE TO SURFACES THROUGH THE MORNING, BUT MOST
OF THE SLIPPERY CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE AREA WHERE
VISIBILITIES ARE AT LESS THAN A MILE. EXPECT THESE AREAS OF FOG
TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE THIS MORNING, WITH
THE DECK OF STRATUS THINNING A BIT BUT STILL STICKING AROUND
WHILE WAFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD CLEAR UP ANY AREAS OF SLICKNESS FROM THE MORNING
HOURS AS THEY WARM INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. OVERNIGHT,
ANOTHER WIND SHIFT WILL BRING A NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND STEEPER
LAPSE RATES AT THE SURFACE, WITH SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGESTING
THAT ANOTHER AREA OF FOG/DRIZZLE COULD SET UP ONCE AGAIN, ONLY
THIS TIME BEING ALONG A LINE FROM O'NEILL TO BEATRICE.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FALLING INTO THE TWENTIES WHILE
THIS OCCURS, MEANING LIMITED SLICKNESS IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY
AREAS OF FREEZING FOG OR DRIZZLE.
A NEWER CURIOSITY FOR THE FORECAST COMPARED TO ONES PREVIOUS IS A
LOCAL CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS SET TO WAFT THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY. THIS WEAK SYSTEM WILL BE AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW, WITH THE COLUMN GRADUALLY BECOMING
SATURATED OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TOMORROW THROUGH THE DAY (TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW-TO-MID
30S), LEADING MANY CAMS TO DEPICT THE ARC OF PRECIPITATION TO BE A A
WINTRY MIX. DENDRITES ALOFT SHOULD BE PRESENT BASED ON SOUNDINGS,
BUT POTENT WARM-AIR ADVECTION FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS WILL HAVE A
STOUT WARM NOSE AT 800 MB, EITHER FULLY MELTING OR PARTIALLY MELTING
THINGS AS THEY FALL. AS OF NOW, NORTHEAST NEBRASKA LOOKS TO BE THE
BEST LOCATION TO SEE STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT, WITH ADDITIONAL
LIFT DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN
NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. THOSE LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
COULD SEE A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE AND A DUSTING OF PARTIALLY-
MELTED SNOW PELLETS IF THINGS PAN OUT AND OVERCOME DRY LOW-LEVEL
AIR (15-30% CHANCE). AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST MAY SEE A
TRACE OF PRECIPITATION, BUT IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE DETECTABLE AND
NON-IMPACTFUL. ALL IN ALL, TIMING HAS THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ENTERING NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY NOON, STRUGGLING TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST MUCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND DISSIPATING WHILE
FINALLY MOVING SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.
SATURDAY AND BEYOND:
AFTER OUR COOLER FRIDAY, ANY AREAS OF SLICKNESS THAT DO DEVELOP
WON'T LAST VERY LONG SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA ARRIVES. HIGHS WILL
REACH INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES, DRIVEN BY DOWNSLOPE FLOW THAT
BUILDS A THERMAL RIDGE UP THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPS SEE ANOTHER BUMP HEADING INTO SUNDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS
THAT WILL BE POISED TO GUST INTO THE 25-35 MPH DAY, WHILE DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW WILL DESCRIBE THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WITH SOMEWHAT DISCONTINUOUS
JET STREAKS KEEPING ANY NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF GULF MOISTURE FROM
OCCURRING. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR
MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK, THOUGH THERE IS NEARLY 10 DEGREES OF
SPREAD BETWEEN THE MOST LIKELY ENVELOPE OF TEMPERATURES WITH
ROOM FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER OUTLOOK THAN IS IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. WHILE DRY WEATHER CURRENTLY LOOKS MOST LIKELY, SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES DO MOVE THROUGH OUR ZONAL FLOW THAT COULD SERVE AS
CANDIDATES FOR VERY LIGHT (BUT LIKELY NON-IMPACTFUL)
PRECIPITATION. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE DAYS TO
WATCH, WHERE SOME LONG-RANGE SOLUTIONS DEPICT A LEE CYCLONE
EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TX/NM REGION. LARGE DIFFERENCES
IN THE TIMING AND ORIENTATION/TILT OF THE TROUGH POWERING THIS
SYSTEM SIGNAL FOR US TO STAY SKEPTICAL FOR NOW, BUT IT WILL BE
WELL WORTH FOCUSING ON AS WE GET CLOSER TO ITS ARRIVAL.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST THU JAN 1 2026
CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO BE STICKIER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST,
WITH THE TAFS LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SCATTER OUT CLOSER TO NOON. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY RELATIVELY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 KTS, WITH
DIRECTIONS GENERALLY BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL TRY TO FILL BACK IN
OVERNIGHT NEAR KLNK AND POINTS NORTHWEST, WITH AREAS OF FREEZING
FOG BECOMING POSSIBLE ALONG A LINE FROM KBIE TO KONL AFTER 06Z
AND THE WORST CONDITIONS STAYING JUST WEST OF KLNK.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PETERSEN
AVIATION...PETERSEN
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