416
FXUS63 KOAX 260837
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
337 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A RENEWED STRETCH OF DANGEROUS HEAT IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY, POTENTIALLY STRETCHING INTO TUESDAY. AFTERNOON
HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY REACH 105 TO 115 DEGREES.
- DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY, WITH RAINFALL
POTENTIAL RETURNING LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEK'S SECOND HALF.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2025
THE FORECAST QUIETS DOWN AS THE WEEKEND ARRIVES. EARLY THIS
MORNING, SHOWERS AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRIMARILY JUST
SOUTHEAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA. SOME STORMS THERE ARE EXPECTED
TO BUMP UP AGAINST SEVERE CRITERIA. A FEW RETURNS DID LIGHT UP
KOAX OVERNIGHT AROUND WAHOO/OMAHA AREA ON THE NOSE OF A H9
NOCTURNAL JET, BUT THEY FALL APART NEARLY AS SOON AS THEY
DEVELOP. AS THE SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE INSTABILITY
CONTINUES EAST, ATTENDANT SHOWERS WILL TAG ALONG. THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.
SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING, BUT
SO FAR HAS YET TO BECOME AS DENSE AS WAS THE CASE ON FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SOME CIRRUS OVERHEAD PREVENTING COMPLETE
RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TODAY'S SUNSHINE WILL ALSO BE CONSTRAINED WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
ELEVATED WILDFIRE SMOKE DRIFTING OVER THE AREA. (IT ISN'T
CANADIAN, THIS SMOKE IS FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA.) BEYOND THE
MILKY SMOKE, SKIES TODAY WILL BE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE DRIFTS AWAY. ON TOTAL, WE'LL SEE
MORE SUN THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THE EXTRA INSOLATION AND
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP TEMPERATURES PUSH
2-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS PRIOR AND DRY SOME OF THESE
PUDDLES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY
THE MID-LATTITUDE JET WILL BULGE NORTH AS THE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BACK-BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. HEIGHTS RISE AND
TEMPS SPIKE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON UNDER A DOG-DAY HEAT DOME.
HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE 90S AS DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN THE
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. NAEFS SHOWS LOW-LEVEL WATER CONTENT TO
BE CLIMATOLOGICALLY ANOMALOUS AS CORN SWEAT SEASON IS IN FULL
SWING. WARM TEMPS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL CONSPIRE TO PUSH
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES OVER 105 FOR ALL LOCATIONS. MONDAY WILL BE
JUST AS HOT OR HOTTER.
HAVE CHOSEN TO ISSUE EXTREME HEAT WATCHES FOR THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. (1P TO 7P). SOME OF
THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE CONVERTED TO A HEAT ADVISORY AND THE
HOTTEST AREAS/URBAN AREAS... AND MUCH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON... PUSHING CLOSE TO OR ABOVE THE 110F EXTREME HEAT
WARNING CRITERIA.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND
SOME AREAS WILL REMAIN HOT ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ITS TIMING. AS IT STANDS, PRECIP WILL WAIT
UNTIL LATE ON TUESDAY WITH 40-70% POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COOLER CONDITIONS FILL OUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, THOUGH
UNCERTAINLY SPIKES FROM TUESDAY FORWARD. CURRENT GUIDANCE
LEAVES THE FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA, LEAVING REGULAR
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDER/SEVERE WEATHER AND MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS. FWIW, MACHINE LEARNING DOES HIGHLIGHT A (15%)
SEVERE THREAT AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2025
CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO DETERIORATE EARLIER THAN GUIDANCE
SUGGESTED WITH THE 00Z ISSUANCE, PRIMARILY AT KOMA AND KLNK
WERE DROPS TO MVFR ARE OBSERVED. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMES ACCORDINGLY
FOR 06Z ISSUANCE. STILL EXPECTING GRADUAL EXPANSION NORTHWARD
OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AFTER 8Z, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
LIFR AT KOMA AND KLNK THROUGH AT LEAST 13Z. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
MAY SEE A POP UP SHOWER OR STORM AT KLNK OR KOMA, BUT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THIS ACTIVITY SOUTHWARD SO HAVE KEPT
MENTIONS OUT GIVEN PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE IS AT 30% OR LESS.
WINDS REMAIN UNDER 12KTS FOR THIS TAF CYCLE BUT WILL GRADUALLY
SWITCH FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NICOLAISEN
AVIATION...CASTILLO
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