846
FXUS63 KOAX 261109
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
509 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT PRECIPITATION ENDING IN SOUTHWEST IA BY MIDNIGHT OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
- WARMER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S.
BREEZY AND DRY, LEADING TO VERY HIGH DANGER BOTH AFTERNOONS.
- TURNING COLDER THIS WEEKEND WITH SNOWFALL CHANCES INCREASING
TO 50-70% BY SUNDAY. SOME ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE,
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO TRAVEL IMPACTS (20-30% CHANCE).
- ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES (20-50% POPS) EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST WED FEB 25 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ATTENDING MID/UPPER-LEVEL
WIND MAXIMA ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR ASCENT PRECEDING THOSE
FEATURES IS QUICKLY ADVANCING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA.
SO THE ONGOING, LIGHT SHOWERS IN HARRISON AND SHELBY COUNTIES
SHOULD END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. CLOUDS ARE ON THE DECREASE
FROM WEST-TO-EAST WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S.
A WEAK WIND SHIFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. THE
DOWNSLOPE-INDUCED WARMING ASSOCIATED WITH THE WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S
AT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME 40S ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF RESIDUAL
SNOWCOVER IN WEST-CENTRAL IA. GREATEST FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS ARE
IN NORTHEAST NE THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 22-23% WILL COINCIDE WITH WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 25
MPH, YIELDING VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL
CANADA FRIDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MO VALLEY. THE MODELS INDICATE A
PRONOUNCED THERMAL RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE LOW LEVELS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WHICH COULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S, GIVEN AN
AFTERNOON FRONTAL PASSAGE. A QUICKER FRONTAL MOVEMENT WOULD
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY OF 20-25% WILL RESULT IN VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST NE.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY:
ANOTHER LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO TRAVERSE
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. SATURDAY, PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SNOW BAND TO OUR NORTH. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT DISTURBANCE TO
OUR EAST, A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE MID-MO
VALLEY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. BY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT, THE MODELS HINT AT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH A
CONFLUENT, MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. STRENGTHENING LOW/MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THAT
FEATURE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING
THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OF 50-70% FORECAST SUNDAY.
THE 12Z GEFS DEPICTS THE HIGHEST EVENT-TOTAL QPF (AND POTENTIAL
IMPACTS) ACROSS OUR AREA COMPARED TO THE EPS AND CANADIAN
ENSEMBLE. THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
SNOW, BUT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR A WINTRY MIX IN SOUTHEAST NE
WHERE THE WARM ADVECTION IS THE STRONGEST. SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT, SO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FORECAST IF YOU HAVE TRAVEL PLANS.
THE CONFLUENT, MID-LEVEL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A SUBTROPICAL-BRANCH
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WEST. THIS FORECAST UPDATE
WILL INDICATE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OF 30-50% ON MONDAY NIGHT. THAT BEING
SAID, THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE SPECIFICS OF THE
SURFACE PATTERN AND THE MOVEMENT OF SUBTLE FEATURES ALOFT. SO,
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND TYPE, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES IS LOW.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU FEB 26 2026
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AGAIN THIS EVENING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEAD
AVIATION...NICOLAISEN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page