580
FXUS63 KOAX 201705
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1205 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY (15-30% CHANCE)
OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA/WESTERN IOWA, AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY OVER
MORE OF THE AREA.
- PLEASANT WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING
CLOUDS AND HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
- SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE FRIDAY THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND (30-60% EACH DAY). SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES
CURRENTLY LOOK LOW (GENERALLY 5% OR LESS), BUT SOMETHING TO
KEEP AN EYE ON IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
EARLY MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWED A LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS OVER
THE AREA WITH A CUTOFF LOW SPINNING OVER THE DAKOTAS. A SURFACE
LOW WAS SPINNING OVER THE NE/KS/IA/MO BORDER AREA WITH ONGOING
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
TAKING PLACE OVER SOUTHEAST NE/SOUTHWEST IA ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/CONVERGENCE. THESE SHOULDN'T AMOUNT TO
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AND WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EAST AND OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER, WE'LL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
SO WE'LL LIKELY SEE CONTINUED SPOTTY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST NE. AGAIN, SHOULDN'T
AMOUNT TO MUCH. OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE
DAKOTAS WHILE THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH WELL TO OUR EAST. STILL,
WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST 10-20% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS AS SOME ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SLIDE THROUGH
WITH MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF MUCAPE IN
PLACE.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND SHOULD GIVE US
A QUIET DAY WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES GETTING
BACK UP INTO 60S TO LOWER 70S. HOWEVER, THIS QUIET WEATHER LOOKS
LIKE IT'LL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE GET SEVERAL BITS OF SHORTWAVE
ENERGY TO PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. WHILE
IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE ANY ONE DAY WILL BE A COMPLETE WASHOUT
JUST YET, OVERALL TREND IS TOWARD A WETTER WEEKEND WITH DAILY
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES IN THE 30-60% RANGE. ALSO STILL QUITE A
FEW DETAILS TO WORK OUT REGARDING EXACT TIMING, STRENGTH, AND
TRACK OF THE VARIOUS SYSTEMS, BUT AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER
MENTIONED, SOME OF THE SEVERE WEATHER MACHINE LEARNING
ALGORITHMS ARE SUGGESTING AT LEAST LOW END POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN OUR AREA ON SOME OF THE DAYS (ABOUT A 5% CHANCE).
OTHERWISE, ASIDE FROM THE SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, EXPECT A
SOMEWHAT SEASONABLY COOL HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 60S TO RIGHT AROUND 70.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT TUE MAY 20 2025
PREVAILING MVFR CEILINGS AT FL010-020 WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH KLNK EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO VFR BY
23Z. THAT TRANSITION WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL ABOUT 21/05Z AT KOMA,
AND 21/15Z AT KOFK. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO THE KOFK
VICINITY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THAT OCCURRENCE
AT THE TERMINAL LOCATION IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CA
AVIATION...MEAD
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