830
FXUS63 KOAX 181047
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
547 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BELOW
FREEZING FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SENSITIVE EARLY SEASON
VEGETATION COULD BE DAMAGED.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER ACROSS NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN
IOWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BEGINS ON SUNDAY. RELATIVELY WARM,
DRY, AND QUIET WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UNTIL OUR NEXT
POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2026
AFTER AN ACTIVE DAY OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST
AND GREAT PLAINS, MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS BEGINNING TO SET IN
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT. MUCH COOLER AIR IS CONTINUING TO
FILTER IN LATE THIS EVENING ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MUCH OF
THE AREA WILL SEE TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S WITH ONLY PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA REMAINING ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THIS IN
MIND, PORTIONS OF THE AREA ARE UNDER A FREEZE WARNING WHERE
SIGNIFICANT GREENING OF VEGETATION HAS BEGUN. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 50S BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE FROM FRIDAY WILL BE WELL EAST OF THE AREA, THE
BASE OF A BROADER TROUGH WILL BE PASSING OVERHEAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
THESE WINDS COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA RESULTS IN VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE DANGER
FOR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN IOWA. A RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA DUE TO THIS. WINDS
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN SATURDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SUNDAY MORNING STARTS COLD
ONCE AGAIN, MAINLY IN THE 30S. SOME LOCATIONS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 MAY SEE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
THANKFULLY, A WARMING TREND BEGINS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARDS SEES THE RETURN OF WARMER, BUT
RELATIVELY QUIET AND DRY WEATHER INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST OF THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY, 70S ON MONDAY,
AND 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT POTENTIAL
WEATHER SYSTEM. LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY A LARGE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE GREAT PLAINS.
AT THIS TIME, SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM REMAIN, BUT AN ACTIVE PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST WITH SEVERE
POTENTIAL A POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT
THEN APPEARS TO ARRIVE BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
MORE CONCRETE DETAILS SHOULD BE KNOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 544 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AFTER SUNRISE, PERSISTING
THROUGH 00-02Z, BEFORE DECREASING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETS
UP TO THE SOUTH. A FEW MODELS HINTED AT MAYBE A BRIEF SHOWER IN
THE AREA TODAY; HOWEVER, WITH FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS, ANY SHOWERS
THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP WOULD MOST LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE
REACHING THE GROUND (VIRGA).
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050-051-065.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ030-042>044-
050-051-065-078-088.
IA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
IAZ043.
DISCUSSION...CHEHAK
AVIATION...ANW
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