229  
FXUS63 KOAX 231119  
AFDOAX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE  
619 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019  
 
AT 333 AM, SKIES WERE CRYSTAL CLEAR OVER THE REGION ALLOWING FOR  
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. COMBINE THIS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE  
50S, AND IT'S NO SURPRISE THAT TEMPERATURES HAVE TUMBLED INTO THE  
LOWER TO MID 50S ALREADY THIS MORNING. BY DAYBREAK, WE COULD EVEN  
SEE A FEW SPOTS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TOUCH THE UPPER 40S. DUE TO  
THE RAIN OVER THE LAST 48 HOURS AND STRONG COOLING, THERE WERE A  
FEW PATCHES OF RADIATIONAL FOG OUT THERE THIS MORNING. SUSPECT  
THESE WILL SPREAD SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CAN'T RULE  
OUT THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A COUPLE COUNTIES IN  
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OR SOUTHWEST IOWA LATER THIS MORNING.  
HOWEVER DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE FOG, A MORE EXPANSIVE  
DENSE FOG ADVISORY OVER THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY IS UNLIKELY.  
 
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO FAIR WEATHER, AS SURFACE  
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NE/IA BORDER INTO  
MISSOURI. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE  
BECOMING SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE  
NEAR 80 DEGREES.  
 
THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE (<15%) FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM  
ALONG THE NOSE OF A LLJ IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT AND TUESDAY  
MORNING. OTHERWISE THE WEATHER SHOULD BE UNEVENTFUL TONIGHT.  
 
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.  
COMBINE THIS WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT, AND YOU  
HAVE THE RECIPE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TUESDAY EVENING.  
SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTION  
(INCLUDING SUPERCELLS), WITH > 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE, 0-6 KM SHEAR  
AROUND 40 KT AND RESPECTABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. SRH (SFC-1 KM)  
VALUES IN THE 150 TO 200 RANGE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME  
POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO. STORM INITIATION IS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN  
5 PM AND 8 PM, WITH THE GREATEST RISK EXPECTED ALONG THE MISSOURI  
RIVER VALLEY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL (PING PONG  
BALLS OR LARGER), WITH A SECONDARY RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS OR AN  
ISOLATED TORNADO. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A COUPLE  
WARNINGS IS MODERATE.  
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY,  
USHERING IN MORE FAIR WEATHER AND PROBABLY THE MOST AGREEABLE DAY  
OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 70S, AND WITH  
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S, HUMIDITY WON'T BE A CONCERN. SHOULD BE A  
GOOD DAY/EVENING TO PROP THE WINDOWS OPEN FOR A BIT.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)  
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019  
 
THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR ACTIVE WEATHER LATER IN THE  
WORKWEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE WEST  
ALLOWING MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. THIS  
IMPLIES MULTIPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM  
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. PINNING DOWN ANY PERIODS FOR THE  
HIGHEST RAIN POTENTIAL IS DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE RATHER  
CHAOTIC PATTERN OF SHORTWAVES COMING OUT OF THE WEST.  
 
DESPITE THE ACTIVE PATTERN, PREVAILING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY  
KEEP THE TREND OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES GOING THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AND BEYOND. SEE THE LATEST 6-10 & 8-14 DAY CPC OUTLOOKS  
(WHICH STRONGLY FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES INTO THE FIRST  
WEEK OF OCTOBER), IF YOUR A STATISTICS AFICIONADO AND WANT TO SEE  
IMPRESSIVELY HIGH PROBABILITIES. FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WE CAN  
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. THESE TEMPERATURE COULD FEEL  
UNSEASONABLY MUGGY AS WELL WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY RETURNING TO  
THE UPPER 60S OR LOWER 70S.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT MON SEP 23 2019  
 
FOG SETTLED INTO THE KOMA AREA EARLIER THIS MORNING, AND WAS  
LOCALLY DENSE. EXPECT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME FOG FOR A FEW MORE  
HOURS, WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES MOST DENSE AROUND KOMA.  
OTHERWISE CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVED TO VFR WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST  
WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 8 TO 12 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
NE...NONE.  
IA...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...ALBRIGHT  
LONG TERM...ALBRIGHT  
AVIATION...MILLER  
 
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