267
FXUS63 KOAX 152329
AFDOAX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
629 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
- A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
FALL AS LOW AS 30 DEGREES BY SATURDAY MORNING.
- COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
DAMP AND DREARY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST, INTO WESTERN
IOWA AND MINNESOTA. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY END FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA/WESTERN
IOWA OVERNIGHT WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS ARRIVING. WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 40-45MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIVE TOWARD THE OZARKS. EXPECT A COOL BUT DRIER DAY
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW TO MID-50S. FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY BRINGS
SOME CONCERNS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST FROST/FREEZE EVENT OF
THE SEASON FOR OUR AREA. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR TEMPERATURES TAKING A PLUNGE OVERNIGHT. FORECASTED
LOWS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW 30S, WHICH PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF A FREEZE WATCH FOR THE CWA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING. ONE THING TO WATCH, PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA WILL BE HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION. CURRENT FORECASTED LOWS ALONG THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA/MISSOURI/IOWA BORDERS IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO AROUND
30 OR 31 DEGREES. HOWEVER, SHOULD CLOUD COVER LINGER SLIGHTLY LONGER
THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN THIS AREA, THIS COULD KEEP OUR
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS WILL
WANT TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST TRENDS HEADING INTO TOMORROW
NIGHT.
A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WARMER AIR MOVES
IN. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, WHILE
TUESDAY HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTED FOR THE LOW TO MID-70S. AFTER
TODAY'S RAINFALL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MOSTLY VFR THIS EVENING BEFORE LOW
STRATUS WITH CIGS AROUND 2800 FT MOVE IN OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY
WINDS INCREASE AROUND 06-08Z WITH GUSTS 30-35KT LIKELY.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BE
WEAKENING MID-MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CIGS
CLEARING AROUND 17-20Z.
OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NE...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-
078-088>093.
IA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.
DISCUSSION...ANW
AVIATION...MCCOY
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