141  
FXUS65 KCYS 241127  
AFDCYS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY  
527 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
   
SHORT TERM
 
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES  
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE  
UPCOMING WEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES COULD INCREASE SNOW MELT OUT WEST  
RESULTING IN RISING RIVERS/STREAMS.  
 
STILL GETTING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.  
RADAR SHOWING BAND OF RAIN ROUGHLY FROM DOUGLAS TO SIDNEY THIS  
MORNING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH  
THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
OUT WEST TODAY...LOOKING AT FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH NAM  
LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -3C. HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING  
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. SO DO THINK WE WILL SEE  
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
COULD SEE CONVECTION LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER  
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.  
 
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN RATHER RAPIDLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW  
MONDAY AFTERNOON. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +1 TO +3C BY TUESDAY  
MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SPRING LIKE  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH 70S IN THE  
PANHANDLE AND 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. SNOWMELT IN THE  
MOUNTAINS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE WITH THESE WARMER  
TEMPERATURES...SO MAY BE DEALING WITH RIVER ISSUES BY WEDNESDAY.  
   
LONG TERM
 
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)  
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BREEZY AND QUITE MILD WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST  
FLOW ALOFT AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 5 CELSIUS, YIELDING MAXIMUM  
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF I-25, AND 50S  
WEST OF I-25.  
 
THURSDAY...A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT,  
WHILE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE  
WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.  
 
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING  
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE  
MOUNTAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES BASED ON PROJECTED 700 MB  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
SATURDAY...DRYING OUT AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES  
NORTHERLY AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN AT LOW AND MID LEVELS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION
 
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)  
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
WYOMING TAFS...VFR, EXCEPT FOR MVFR AT RAWLINS AND LARAMIE FROM  
20Z TO 03Z.  
 
NEBRASKA TAFS...OCCASIONAL IFR AT CHADRON AND ALLIANCE UNTIL 15Z,  
THEN MVFR UNTIL 01Z, THEN IFR. OCCASIONAL IFR AT SCOTTSBLUFF UNTIL  
15Z, THEN VFR UNTIL 01Z, THEN IFR. OCCASIONAL IFR AT SIDNEY UNTIL  
15Z, THEN VFR UNTIL 01Z, THEN MVFR UNTIL 05Z, THEN IFR.  
 

 
   
FIRE WEATHER
 
 
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
ANOTHER WET DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH  
THE AREA. WE BEGIN TO WARM UP AND DRY OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A  
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY  
TUESDAY COULD REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF  
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WILL BE QUITE GUSTY TUESDAY AS WELL WITH GUSTS  
TO 35MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT LOOK  
LIKE THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL MATCH UP. BUT WILL KEEP A  
CLOSE EYE ON THESE CONDITIONS AS TUESDAY DRAWS CLOSER. ANOTHER LOW  
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND  
MOUNTAIN SNOW.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019  
 
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH RIVERS AND STREAM ONCE AGAIN  
TODAY AS RAIN CONTINUES TODAY. WHITE RIVER GAUGE AT THE  
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA LINE STILL IN MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AND LOOKS TO  
REMAIN HIGH FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GOING TO SEE MUCH WARMER  
TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY ON INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE  
RISES IN RIVER HEADWATERS OUT WEST WITH THE INCREASED SNOW MELT.  
 

 
   
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WY...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...GCC  
LONG TERM...RUBIN  
AVIATION...RUBIN  
FIRE WEATHER...GCC  
HYDROLOGY...GCC  
 
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