670  
FXUS65 KCYS 090542  
AFDCYS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY  
1142 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES  
 
- A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN TODAY AND LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT  
WEEK WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING MOST AFTERNOONS.  
 
- THE NEXT POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK  
WITH BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES, STRONGER WINDS, AND ANOTHER  
CHANCE FOR SOME RAINFALL AND MOUNTAIN SNOW.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/  
 
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025  
 
A TRANSITION IN THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND  
WESTERN NEBRAKSA CONTINUES TODAY. OUR LONG-DURATION EASTERLY  
FLOW PATTERN HAS COME TO AN END AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE  
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEATHER HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST  
AND SOUTH. WEAK RIDGING HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE  
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, PLACING OUR REGION IN A PATTERN OF LIGHT  
NORTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. SOME LINGERING SURFACE  
MOISTURE AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING HAS RESULTED IN VERY LOW-  
END INSTABILITY VALUES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST  
WYOMING, AND A FEW VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS  
HAVE FORMED AS A RESULT. THESE SHOULD REMAIN CLOSELY TIED TO THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN TODAY AND ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS  
THAN 0.1", EVEN UNDER THE STRONGER CORES. ELSEWHERE EXPECT A  
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY AND CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING  
AROUND 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.  
 
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON FRIDAY AS RIDGING CONTINUES TO  
BUILD EASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. EXPECT HIGHS TO  
RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ONCE AGAIN, AFTERNOON  
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE  
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. ONCE AGAIN, THIS  
ACTIVITY WILL BE DRIVEN ENTIRELY BY SURFACE HEATING AND  
LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE, AND WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TOWARD  
SUNSET. VERY LITTLE CHANGES NEEDED TO MODEL BLENDS THROUGH THE  
SHORT-TERM TODAY WITH EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN HREF AND GLOBAL  
ENSEMBLE BLENDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 209 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025  
 
THIS WEEKEND LOOKS PRETTY DRY EVEN WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH  
TO GIVE EXTRA LIFT TO ANY LINGERING MOISTURE. THERE IS SOME WEAK  
VORT-MAXES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE TO GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE  
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS BUT THE MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED AS  
DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOW 20'S SATURDAY. THERE IS A PRETTY STOUT DRY  
LAYER IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO ANY SHOWERS LOOK TO BE CONFINED NEAR  
THE MOUNTAIN AND MOUNTAIN ADJACENT AREAS. THE RIDGE AXIS STARTS TO  
SHIFT A LITTLE EAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN MID 70'S WEST OF I-25 AND INTO  
THE 80'S TO THE EAST. ON SUNDAY, THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE HAS A CHANCE  
FOR SOME 90'S MOSTLY FROM SCOTTSBLUFF TO ALLIANCE AND NORTH.  
 
DURING THE NEXT WORK WEEK, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW STARTS TO MOVE INTO  
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO GIVE SOME PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY.  
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING AND TRACK BETWEEN  
THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE GFS HAS THE STORM PUSHING FURTHER NORTH  
ALLOWING FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF WYOMING TO RECEIVE  
PRECIPITATION WHILE OUR SOUTHEAST CORNER IS A LOT DRIER WITH ALMOST  
NO PRECIPITATION. THE EURO AND CANADIAN BOTH HAVE THE RIDGE BREAKING  
DOWN HOWEVER THE EURO BRINGS THE SYSTEM A LITTLE BIT MORE NORTH AND  
WEAKER SHOWING A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. THE CANADIAN HAS THE  
RIDGE BREAKING DOWN A LITTLE BIT MORE WITH A SOUTHERN TRACK, WITH IT  
BEING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH INDICATING A STRONGER SYSTEM NEXT  
WEEK. CLUSTER ANALYSIS GIVES ABOUT A 50/50 PROBABILITY OF BOTH  
SCENARIOS BEING AS LIKELY TO OCCUR BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS. MONDAY  
AND WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE OUR WINDY DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
GETS SQUEEZED ON MONDAY AND A STRONG JET MOVES OVER THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER, WEDNESDAY IS STILL UP IN THE AIR AS THE  
STRONGER JETSTREAK HAS BEEN PUSHED FURTHER NORTH WITH THE LATEST 12Z  
RUN GIVING THE 70 KNOT JETSTREAK TO OUR NEIGHBORS WHILE WE GET  
ELEVATED WINDS AT 45-50KTS.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/  
 
ISSUED AT 1140 PM MDT THU MAY 8 2025  
 
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FRIDAY MORNING WITH JUST A  
FEW MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FILTERING THROUGH AND FAIRLY LIGHT  
WINDS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY  
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE BASELINE WINDS  
WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK FRIDAY, THESE SHOWERS MAY BRING LOCALLY  
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IF THEY  
PASS NEAR OR OVER A TERMINAL. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL  
BE POSSIBLE NEAR SHOWER ACTIVITY.  
 
 
   
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
WY...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 
 
 
 
 
SHORT TERM...MAC  
LONG TERM...MM  
AVIATION...MN  
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