651
FXUS65 KCYS 231748
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
1048 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- NEXT WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND EVENT EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WITH PERIODS OF VERY WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE FOR THE USUAL SOUTHEAST WYOMING WIND PRONE ZONES AND
THE ADJACENT ZONES.
- MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL, WITH SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY. 6 TO 12
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
ALL MODELS SHOW ONE MORE RELATIVELY QUIET DAY BEFORE THE WIND
MACHINE KICKS BACK IN FOR, AT LEAST, SOUTHEAST WYOMING BY
MIDWEEK. FOR TODAY, HIGH CLOUDS ARE PUSHING INTO THE AREA AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND
EVENTUALLY FLATTENS BACK MID WEEK. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT
ANY POTENTIAL FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WITH A FEW LOCATIONS SHOWING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME GROUND FOG ATTEMPTING TO
FORM, BUT WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE. 700MB TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CLIMB
BETWEEN 0C TO +3C OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
TRANSLATES TO SURFACE HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOST OF THE SURFACE SNOW PACK
DISSIPATING THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, SO DIDN'T GO AS
HIGH AS THE GFS OR THE ECMWF AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A
STEADY INCREASE IN WESTERLY WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW TO MIDLEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS INCREASE OVER SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. MAY SEE A FEW OF THE WIND PRONE AREAS CLOSE TO HIGH
WIND CRITERIA AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING; THEREFORE, UPGRADED THE
CURRENT HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE ARLINGTON/ELK
MOUNTAIN AREA WITH IN-HOUSE WIND GUIDANCE SHOWING 60% TO 80%
PROBABILITIES BY TONIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 75 MPH POSSIBLE. ALSO,
EXTENDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO THE SUB-WIND PRONE AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING INCLUDING MOST OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN CARBON
COUNTY, SHIRLEY BASIN, AND EASTERN PLATTE COUNTY STARTING LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. KEPT ALL OTHER HIGH WIND
WATCHES OUT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL MODERATE QUITE A BIT COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL
MORNINGS WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS AND CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION WITH EVEN MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LIKELY TUESDAY
NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
GRADUALLY FLATTENING AS A VERY STRONG 140KT JET MOVES ONSHORE
AND INTO WYOMING LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH SLIGHT
ANTICYCLONIC JET CURVATURE AND THE JET SITTING RIGHT OVER
WYOMING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY, A PROLONGED HIGH WIND EVENT IS
EXPECTED OVER AT LEAST SOUTHEAST WYOMING THROUGH MIDWEEK. NOT
SEEING CLEAR EVIDENCE OF A HIGH WIND THREAT IN WESTERN
NEBRASKA, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SINCE MODEL WIND SPEEDS
HAVE INCREASED IN THOSE AREAS. FOR THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
WEST, MODELS ALL SHOW 700MB WINDS BETWEEN 65 TO 75 KNOTS,
PEAKING BOTH TUESDAY MORNING AND LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
700MB WINDS AND SURFACE GRADIENTS STAY ELEVATED THROUGH LATE
THIS WEEK OVER THE WIND PRONE AREAS. GFS AND NAM OMEGA AND
1000-500MB THICKNESS SHOW A CLASSIC MOUNTAIN WAVE PATTERN
SETTING UP OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING STARTING ON TUESDAY. MOST OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS STAY JUST WEST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR, SO KEPT
CHEYENNE, TORRINGTON, AND DOUGLAS OUT OF THE HIGH WIND WATCH
FOR NOW. PEAK SUBSIDENCE AND THE HIGHEST BOUNDARY LAYER LAPSE
RATES (8-10C/KM) NUDGE CLOSER TO THESE AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHERE MAX SUBSIDENCE MOVES
TOWARDS THE NEBRASKA BORDER, SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH WEDNESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE HIGH WIND WATCH. NOT QUITE
CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WATCH QUITE YET, SINCE THE MAX
SUBSIDENCE OCCURS PRETTY LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND WIND GUSTS ALONG INTERSTATE 80
FROM CHEYENNE TO SIDNEY UP TO CRITERIA FOR NOW.
WITH A STRONG JET ALOFT AND DECENT UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS, PARTICULARLY THE SIERRA MADRE RANGE, SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE STEADILY INCREASED LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THOUGHT
ABOUT ISSUING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THIS AREA, BUT THERE
SHOULD BE A LARGE ENOUGH BREAK AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TO
JUSTIFY A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH AMOUNTS NEAR THE HIGHEST
PEAKS AROUND 15 INCHES, BUT CLOSER TO 5 TO 8 INCHES AROUND 8500
TO 9500 FEET. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT IT,
BUT WILL LIKELY NEED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BY TONIGHT FOR
BOTH THE SIERRA MADRE AND SNOWY RANGES LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
TO BE RAIN DURING THE DAY, OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED ON
THE ROADS, SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IMPACTS BELOW 7000 FEET.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 145 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
EDITED PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION TO MOVE SOME OF THE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WORDING INTO THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. EVERYTHING
ELSE LOOKS ON TRACK AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF COLORADO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND PACIFIC
ENERGY NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES MAY RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL WINDS AND PRECIPITATION ONCE WE GET INTO SUNDAY THIS
WEEKEND AND NEXT MONDAY.
PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 154 PM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
THE NEW 12Z RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS STILL HAS THE 700MB JET
PEAK AT SPEEDS OF 65 TO 75 KNOTS INTERMITTENTLY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THEN RELAXES BEHIND A COLD FRONT TO 55-60
KNOTS ALOFT THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE
JETSTREAM LOOKS TO SHIFT A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD AS THE PEAK
SPEED CONTINUE TO BE AROUND 55 KNOTS COME FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DROPPING BELOW 50 KNOTS BY FRIDAY EVENING. LOOKING AT THE
GLOBAL OMEGA FIELDS THEY INDICATE STRONG TO VERY STRONG
SUBSIDENT FLOW WEDNESDAY, THEN BACKING OFF TO WEAK TO SEMI-
STRONG SUBSIDENT FLOW THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
LOOK TO FLOAT BETWEEN 7.5 TO 8.5C/KM TO SUPPORT SOME DECENT
MIXING AND ALLOWING FOR THOSE FASTER WINDS TO MOVE TO THE
SURFACE. WITH THESE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AREAS EAST
OF I-25 WILL EXPERIENCE WARM/DRY DOWNSLOPING WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE WEEK. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE FROM -1C TO ABOUT 4-5C FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL RISE TO
THE 50-60'S FOR OUR DAILY HIGHS. THURSDAY MORNING THE WEAK COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO PUSH THROUGH DRAGGING A LITTLE BIT OF THAT COLDER
AIR DOWN WITH IT BUT WITH THOSE DOWNSLOPING WINDS IT WONT HAVE
MUCH EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY BUT COULD
POTENTIALLY DROP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20'S FOR THE REGION. WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE COMING
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THERE IS EVEN LESS PROJECTED MOISTURE THAN
THE FIRST. THE NBM POPS WERE KEPT AS THEY ONLY POPS THAT WERE IN
THIS TIME PERIOD WAS LOW POPS FOR THE SIERRA MADRES. EVEN WITH
THE DECREASE IN THE 700MB JET DURING THIS PERIOD. THERE IS STILL
A RISK FOR NEAR CRITICAL FIRE CONCERNS WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND
MIN RH VALUES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 AM MST MON FEB 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS AND WIND
SHEAR THE PRIMARY HAZARDS AS WINDS REMAIN BREEZY TODAY WITH WIND
SHEAR INCREASING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL LESSEN BY THE LATER MORNING HOURS, BUT
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING AT THAT TIME. CIGS REMAINING
HIGH LEVEL AT AROUND 20K FEET.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR WYZ104-105-107-109.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR WYZ106.
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM MST
WEDNESDAY FOR WYZ110.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 8 PM MST THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR WYZ116-117.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...MM
AVIATION...CG
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