029
FXUS65 KCYS 062126
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
326 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY
MORNING.
- WARMER, DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN MID-WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
A DREARY DAY CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH COOL,
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BLANKET OF LOW STRATUS FOR MOST AREAS
EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE, BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS BEGINNING TO
TAKE PLACE IN CARBON COUNTY AND SOME OF THE NORTHERN ZONES. WITH
SOME UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY STILL LINGERING OVER THE CWA, CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT, MORE
THAN LIKELY, MOST AREAS ARE DONE WITH PRECIPITATION FOR THE DAY.
HEADING INTO TONIGHT, CLEARING WILL CONTINUE, WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR OUT OF A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLOW TO MOVE OUT, CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LINGER
AROUND AND JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR BETWEEN
LARAMIE AND SIDNEY. DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, THESE AREAS WILL
LIKELY STAY A TAD BIT WARMER THAN OTHER AREAS WITH LESSER
CHANCES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST, HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME PATCHY FROST IN ISOLATED AREAS. THE REST OF THE CWA IS
LIKELY TO SEE CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT,
TEMPERATURES WILL TANK DUE TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING,
ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING. AREAS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
AS WELL AS CONVERSE AND NIOBRARA COUNTIES WILL LIKELY SEE
WIDESPREAD FROST AND TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT.
FREEZE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING THAT HAVE NOT YET SEEN A FREEZE THIS SEASON. THE FROST
POTENTIAL WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO AREAS FURTHER EAST. THE NORTHERN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN GOSHEN COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE
FROST DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS AS WELL
AS HIGHER HUMIDITY. ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS AS
SENSITIVE VEGETATION COULD BE AFFECTED DESPITE TEMPERATURES NOT
REACHING FREEZING.
BY TUESDAY, WEAK RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES,
CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM. COLD MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM QUICKLY, WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 50S AND 60S AS 700 MB
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 0C RETURN TO THE CWA. SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE
RIDGE WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT BAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS
EXPECTED TO HAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HEADING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
SEASONABLE FOR THE BEGINNING OF OCTOBER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 322 PM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM, A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH OUR CWA, WITH LITTLE TO NO
MOISTURE IN THE MID-LEVELS, PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL.
THIS WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT BUILDS
NORTH INTO OUR AREA LATE WEDNESDAY, BRINGING RELATIVELY BENIGN
WEATHER ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER, A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE REGION AND INCREASE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ALL THIS IS AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVES INTO THE
WEST COAST SATURDAY AND PROGRESSES EAST INTO OUR CWA BY SUNDAY THEN
QUICKLY EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. MOST OF THE ENERGY, AT
THIS TIME, APPEARS TO SKIRT JUST TO OUR NORTH WHICH KEEPS MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF OUR AREA. SO, WHAT ABOUT
TEMPERATURES, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS OUR CWA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THIS WILL BRING WARMER 700 MB TEMPERATURES
IN THE 5 TO 8 DEGREE CELSIUS RANGE WHICH WILL RESULT IN SURFACE
TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S WEST OF I-25 AND 70S TO THE EAST FOR
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY
WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND 80S, HIGHEST ACROSS EASTERN
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. A SIGN THAT WINTER IS COMING,
OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL DIP INTO THE 30S
AND 40S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT MON OCT 6 2025
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE
AFTERNOON GENERALLY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. IN THE MEANTIME, THE MAIN
CLOUD DECK IS PRETTY LOCKED IN FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TERMINALS,
ESPECIALLY THOSE EAST OF I-25. MVFR CIGS ARE HOLDING FIRM FOR KCYS,
KLAR, KBFF, KCDR, KSNY, AND KAIA. BASED ON THE LATEST VIS SATELLITE
IMAGERY, CLOUDS APPEAR TO HAVE BROKEN UP PRETTY NICELY FOR KRWL.
OVERALL, EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FOR ALL
TERMINALS BY 01Z AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. KCYS MAY SEE A RETURN OF LOWER CIGS LATE TONIGHT WITH
IMPROVEMENT IN THE MORNING HOURS, BY ABOUT 15Z.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ108.
FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
WYZ101-102-104-110-111.
NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT TUESDAY FOR
NEZ002-003-095-096.
SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM...RZ
AVIATION...RZ
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