843
FXUS65 KCYS 160830
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
230 AM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...FOLLOWED
BY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CURRENTLY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAYS ALONG A LINE FROM JUST NORTH OF
SIDNEY TO JUST SOUTH OF RAWLINS THIS MORNING. DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S NORTH OF THIS FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE WITH MID 50S
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE
MOISTURE PLUME THAT HAS BEEN FUELING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...
STARTING TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN
KANSAS THIS MORNING WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO WESTERN
COLORADO AND SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING.
FOR TODAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A DRYLINE THROUGH
THE DAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES. BY
21Z...FRONT LOOKS TO BE CLEAR OF THE PANHANDLE WITH 850MB HUMIDITY
IN THE PANHANDLE DOWN NEAR 15 PERCENT ON THE GFS. LOOKS LIKE OUR
NORTHERN CWA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
HRRR AND HIRESNMM BOTH SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
DRYLINE/FRONT AFTER 18Z...SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE PANHANDLE BY
00Z. AFTERNOON MUCAPES NEAR 3000 J/KG WITH SFC TO 6KM SHEAR AROUND
40KTS. LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS LIKELY ALONG AND
NORTH/EAST OF A LINE FROM DOUGLAS TO TORRINGTON TO KIMBALL TODAY.
THINKING AFTER 00Z...MOST OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE MOVED INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
NOT TOO SURE ABOUT WEDNESDAY IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THAT
DRIER AIR WILL LIKELY BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. BUT SPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE BACK INTO
CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. DID UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE ON POPS THOUGH.
WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AS GFS 700MB WINDS CLOSE TO 40KTS
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING. WE COULD MIX WINDS DOWN FROM
500MBS THURSDAY...WHICH SHOWS ROUGHLY 40-45KTS AT THAT LEVEL ON
GFS SOUNDINGS OVER RAWLINS.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019
ONE MORE QUITE WARM AND DRY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY
THOUGH A MODEST COOL FRONT MAY SAG SOUTH OVER THE PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD SEE COOLER CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ROUNDS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKYS AND OVER THE REGION. SUNDAY LOOKING TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY AS THE CWA GETS CLIPPED BY A SFC HIGH THAT MOVES
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019
VFR EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCTD SHOWERS AND
TSTMS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER SE WY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
MOVING OVER THE PANHANDLE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING WITH BRIEF GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS AND MAINLY MVFR VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
CELLS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT TUE JUL 16 2019
ONE LAST DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...MAINLY EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THEN CONDITIONS
TURN DRIER AND WINDIER. COULD BE A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL...DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED. VERY DRY
CONDITIONS BEGIN ACROSS CARBON COUNTY STARTING THIS
AFTERNOON...SPREADING EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TEENS EACH DAY WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WESTERLY WINDS
GUSTING CLOSE TO 40 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIRMASS TO
CREATE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
FORTUNATELY...FUELS ARE STILL REPORTED AS NOT RECEPTIVE TO RAPID
FIRE SPREAD AT THIS TIME. THE EXCEPTION IS FWZ 310...WHICH WILL
LIKELY NEED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THURSDAY.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...RE
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
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