060  
FXUS65 KCYS 040906  
AFDCYS  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY  
306 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL  
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. A FEW RARE AM  
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN INDEPENDENCE DAY.  
 
- TEMPERATURES DROP BACK DOWN CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL FOR  
INDEPENDENCE DAY BUT AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD  
IMPACT FESTIVITIES.  
 
- HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH COULD DRIVE DAILY SHOWER AND  
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM WHILE KEEPING US CLOSE  
TO NEAR SEASONABLE FOR TEMPERATURES. HOT TEMPERATURES ARE  
POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
CURRENT KCYS RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE BAND OF NOCTURNAL  
THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH DEVELOPED LATE LAST NIGHT, PUSHING EASTWARD  
INTO THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THIS ENDED UP BEING A FEW  
HOURS EARLIER THAN EXPECTED, BUT NOT TOO FAR OFF AS IT WAS  
A CONCERN OVER THE LAST FEW FORECAST PACKAGES. ELEVATED  
INSTABILITY AND MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG REMAIN OVER  
MOST OF THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AS AN AREA OF  
CONVERGENCE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THANKFULLY, THIS ACTIVITY HAS  
BEEN SUB-SEVERE BUT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND FREQUENT  
LIGHTNING HAVE LED TO TRAVEL IMPACTS OVERNIGHT.  
 
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SLOW MOVING  
TROUGH AXIS MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY NOON/EARLY  
AFTERNOON TODAY WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE ALOFT  
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE PACIFIC TROUGH. AFTER A BRIEF LULL THIS  
MORNING WITH SOME SUNNY SKIES, INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY  
AS FORCING REMAINS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT A FAIRLY ACTIVE  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,  
SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  
THIS ACTIVITY MAY LINGER INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS, WHICH  
COULD IMPACT INDEPENDENCE DAY FESTIVITIES...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST  
CAM RUNS NOW SHOW MOST OF THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FINISHED BY  
AROUND 9 PM LATE THIS EVENING.  
 
FOR SATURDAY, MODELS SHOW A FLATTENED RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE CLIPS NORTHERN  
AND CENTRAL WYOMING. WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE  
MOUNTAINS DUE TO WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, BUT  
UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF IT...AND AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS  
THE AREA, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN  
THE AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE  
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH CURRENT MLCAPE BETWEEN 1500 TO 2500  
J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 219 AM MDT FRI JUL 4 2025  
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ACTIVE PACIFIC OCEAN THATS GOING TO BE  
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MULTITUDE OF SHORTWAVES TRAVERSING THE PACIFIC  
NORTHWEST AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. LOOKING AT CLUSTER ANALYSIS THE  
MAIN UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL  
SET UP. IF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETS UP FURTHER WEST OVER THE  
NEVADA AREA, THEN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BE IN NORTHWEST FLOW.  
WHILE IN NORTHWEST FLOW, DAILY CHANCES FOR EVENING WEAK TO STRONG  
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE MORE EXPECTED AS THESE SHORTWAVES PUSH THROUGH  
OUR REGION. THE SECONDARY SCENARIO IS IF THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE  
SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, THEN A HOT AND DRY OUTCOME CAN  
BE MORE EXPECTED. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE PRETTY STOUT OVER THE  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND BETTER DEFLECT THOSE SHORTWAVES. HOWEVER, WE  
WOULD STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SHORTWAVES TO DEVELOP  
THUNDERSTORMS. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 80'S  
AND POSSIBLY SOME 90'S NEXT WEEK EAST OF I-25. TO BUILD SOME  
CONFIDENCE NAEFS IS ALSO SHOWING AVERAGE VALUES FOR CLIMATOLOGICAL  
PWAT'S AND INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR FOR THE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA  
AREAS. SO THE WARMER/DRIER WEATHER PATTERN MAY BE IN OUR FAVOR, BUT  
IT IS SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR MORE CERTAINTY IN NEXT WEEKS WEATHER  
PATTERN.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1012 PM MDT THU JUL 3 2025  
 
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, THEN BECOME WEST ON  
THE 4TH OF JULY.  
 
WYOMING TAFS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 8000 TO  
10000 FEET WILL PREVAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY  
OF LARAMIE AND CHEYENNE UNTIL 08Z, AND ALL TERMINALS FROM 18Z TO  
01Z, WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS AT CHEYENNE UNTIL 07Z,  
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS AND VISIBILITIES TO 4 MILES.  
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 KNOTS AT THE  
TERMINALS FROM 15Z TO 01Z.  
 
NEBRASKA TAFS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 6000 TO  
15000 FEET WILL PREVAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY  
OF SCOTTSBLUFF UNTIL 08Z, AND AT ALL TERMINALS FROM 20Z TO 01Z.  
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL GUST TO 32 KNOTS AT  
CHADRON, ALLIANCE AND SIDNEY UNTIL 09Z, AND TO 20 KNOTS AT ALL  
THE TERMINALS FROM 15Z TO 02Z.  
 

 
   
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
WY...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...TJT  
LONG TERM...MM  
AVIATION...RUBIN  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab WY Page
The Nexlab NE Page Main Text Page