831
FXUS65 KCYS 132328
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
528 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM THREAT CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH A
DAILY RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY EXPECTED.
- TEMPERATURES NOTABLY ABOVE AVERAGE THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS 5
TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL.
- STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A
QUICK COOL-OFF TO BRING US BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BEFORE HEATING
BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2025
STORMS ARE ALREADY FIRING ACROSS THE REGION IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS
SHOWS SURFACE CAPE EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR IN THE 2000-4000
J/KG RANGE, AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-10 C/KM. HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES WE SHOULD SEE THE ONGOING STORMS
THAT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE I-25 AREA WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND INTO A STRONG CLUSTER/LINE OF ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TOWARDS NEBRASKA. WITH DERECHO
COMPOSITES 1-2 AND MCS MAINTENANCE UP TO 60, THE LIKELIHOOD WE
SEE ACTIVITY BECOMING LINEAR AND A WIDESPREAD WIND RISK ARE
BECOMING HIGHER AND HIGHER. BUT SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR
COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS OF LARGE HAIL, AS WELL AS
THE SUPPORT FOR A VERY ISOLATED TORNADO (WITH A LINEAR BASED
EMBEDDED ROTATION ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION). ACTIVITY
PRESSES THROUGH NEBRASKA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO EXIT OUR CWA BY THE LATE EVENING INTO THE EARLY
NIGHTTIME HOURS. CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BUT WITH THE
TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE REGION ALONGSIDE A MOIST AIRMASS,
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED ON
SATURDAY. THIS TIME THOUGH WITH NOTABLE WARMING AND SOME
DECLINING MOISTURE, DEWPOINTS MAY DROP A BIT FURTHER ACROSS
LARAMIE COUNTY AND ALONG I-25, LEADING TO THE PRIMARY SEVERE
RISK FURTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE MOISTURE SHOULD STILL
REMAIN A BIT HIGHER WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50'S TO 60'S. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND OR JUST EAST OF
I-25, WITH LARGE HAIL AND WINDS THE PRIMARY RISKS ONCE AGAIN.
THIS TIME THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE SUPPORTIVE OF
HAIL WITH SOME ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO CLUSTERS OF STORMS LIKELY,
THOUGH STORM MOTIONS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO QUICKLY PROPAGATE
THE STORMS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 128 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2025
MOVING INTO THE LONG TERM, THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT DOESN'T END
AS WE SEE DAILY RISK OF ACTIVITY TO END THE WEEKEND AND START
THE WORK WEEK. THE THREAT ON SUNDAY CONTINUES TO SHIFT A BIT
MORE NORTH AND EASTWARDS, SO THANKFULLY THE BULK OF THE
STRONGEST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA, BUT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE NOTABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO HELP TO REDUCE OUR RH VALUES AND MAKE
DEWPOINTS DESCEND A BIT MORE WEST OF I-25, KEEPING ANYWHERE IN
THIS AREA IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST, BUT FURTHER EAST A
FEW STRONGER CELLS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. ON MONDAY THE RIDGE THAT
IS PRIMARILY CONTROLLING THE REGION SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN,
BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A STRONGER SEVERE RISK TO
OVERSPREAD. A FEW MARGINALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, BUT THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE ACTIVITY STILL REMAINS
JUST TO OUR NORTHEAST. THAT ALL CHANGES ON TUESDAY HOWEVER, AS
THE RIDGE WILL FULLY BREAKDOWN AND A STOUT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION, POSSIBLY EVEN TAKING A NEGATIVELY TILTED
ORIENTATION AT THE UPPER LEVELS. TEMPERATURES WILL DESCEND
NOTABLY AS HIGHS DIVE BACK DOWN INTO THE 70'S, ALLOWING
DEWPOINTS TO MORE CLOSELY ALIGN TO OUR TEMPERATURES, AND WITH
LOW LEVEL SHEAR MUCH STRONGER ALONGSIDE EXPECTED INSTABILITY, WE
MAY SEE AN EVEN BETTER DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA.
THE ONE CAVEAT THOUGH WILL BE IF WE CAN GET ENOUGH CLEARING TO
INITIATE STRONGER STORMS, AS THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES SHOULD
ALLOW MORE CLOUD COVER WHICH COULD LIMIT STRONGER HEATING.
STILL, ENOUGH BREAKS AND GAPS ARE POSSIBLE, AND SO EXPECT A
POTENTIALLY STOUT DAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AFTER THIS THOUGH, THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN WITH A VENGEANCE,
AND WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES SKYROCKET THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK AND MOISTURE ALL BUT DEPART OUR CWA. A FEW SHOWERS OR
STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY FOR OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES, BUT EXPECT A DRYING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE 80'S AND SOME 90'S POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. INTO THE EXTENDED
TERM JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST, WE'RE LOOKING AT SIGNIFICANT
WARMTH, WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 90'S EAST OF I-25. THIS
COULD BE OUR LAST TEMPERATE WEEKEND BEFORE SUMMER REARS ITS HEAD
FINALLY FOR OUR REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT FRI JUN 13 2025
A LINE OF STORMS IS MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLE JUST PAST KBFF.
KCDR AND KAIA ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE STORMS AND RAIN BETWEEN
01-04Z. KSNY MAY HAVE STORMS PASS OVER IT ACCORDING TO MODEL
GUIDANCE BUT THE STORM DEVELOPING IN KIMBALL COUNTY THAT MAY GET
CLOSE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THESE STORMS MOVE PAST
THE TERMINALS. TOMORROW BETWEEN 20-23Z STORMS MAY DEVELOP EAST
OF I-25 AND PASS OVER KCYS AND THE PANHANDLE TERMINALS.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...
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