141
FXUS65 KCYS 241127
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
527 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY...FOLLOWED BY RISING TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. WARM TEMPERATURES COULD INCREASE SNOW MELT OUT WEST
RESULTING IN RISING RIVERS/STREAMS.
STILL GETTING WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM YESTERDAYS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
RADAR SHOWING BAND OF RAIN ROUGHLY FROM DOUGLAS TO SIDNEY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THIS AREA TO SLOWLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON.
OUT WEST TODAY...LOOKING AT FAIRLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH NAM
LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -3C. HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. SO DO THINK WE WILL SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
COULD SEE CONVECTION LASTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE UPPER
LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN RATHER RAPIDLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON. 700MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +1 TO +3C BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING. SPRING LIKE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH 70S IN THE
PANHANDLE AND 60S IN THE SOUTHEAST WYOMING PLAINS. SNOWMELT IN THE
MOUNTAINS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE WITH THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES...SO MAY BE DEALING WITH RIVER ISSUES BY WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BREEZY AND QUITE MILD WITH BRISK SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND 700 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 5 CELSIUS, YIELDING MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S EAST OF I-25, AND 50S
WEST OF I-25.
THURSDAY...A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT,
WHILE AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND DEEPENING MOISTURE
WILL HELP PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.
FRIDAY...THE TROUGH ALOFT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OF RAIN AND SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. COOLER TEMPERATURES BASED ON PROJECTED 700 MB
TEMPERATURES.
SATURDAY...DRYING OUT AND SLIGHTLY WARMER AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
NORTHERLY AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN AT LOW AND MID LEVELS.
AVIATION
(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019
WYOMING TAFS...VFR, EXCEPT FOR MVFR AT RAWLINS AND LARAMIE FROM
20Z TO 03Z.
NEBRASKA TAFS...OCCASIONAL IFR AT CHADRON AND ALLIANCE UNTIL 15Z,
THEN MVFR UNTIL 01Z, THEN IFR. OCCASIONAL IFR AT SCOTTSBLUFF UNTIL
15Z, THEN VFR UNTIL 01Z, THEN IFR. OCCASIONAL IFR AT SIDNEY UNTIL
15Z, THEN VFR UNTIL 01Z, THEN MVFR UNTIL 05Z, THEN IFR.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019
ANOTHER WET DAY TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. WE BEGIN TO WARM UP AND DRY OUT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
TUESDAY COULD REACH CRITICAL LEVELS FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. WILL BE QUITE GUSTY TUESDAY AS WELL WITH GUSTS
TO 35MPH WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE THE WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL MATCH UP. BUT WILL KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THESE CONDITIONS AS TUESDAY DRAWS CLOSER. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN MAR 24 2019
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE HIGH RIVERS AND STREAM ONCE AGAIN
TODAY AS RAIN CONTINUES TODAY. WHITE RIVER GAUGE AT THE
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA LINE STILL IN MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AND LOOKS TO
REMAIN HIGH FOR NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GOING TO SEE MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY ON INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE
RISES IN RIVER HEADWATERS OUT WEST WITH THE INCREASED SNOW MELT.
CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...RUBIN
AVIATION...RUBIN
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
HYDROLOGY...GCC
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