570  
FGUS71 KGYX 111305  
ESFGYX  
MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-NHC001-003-005-007-  
009-011-013-015-017-019-181315-  
 
WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
805 AM EST FRI JAN 11 2019  
 
   
..WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
 
 
THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE  
AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.  
 
THE THREAT OF FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS BELOW NORMAL.  
 
THIS IS THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF REGULARLY SCHEDULED FLOOD  
POTENTIAL OUTLOOKS THAT ARE ISSUED DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING  
SEASONS. THESE OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED EVERY TWO WEEKS UNTIL THE  
END OF THE SNOW MELT SEASON, AND WILL ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR  
FLOODING BASED ON A NUMBER OF FACTORS.  
   
..CLIMATOLOGICAL GUIDANCE
 
 
NOVEMBER SAW COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN MAINE  
AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE MIDDLE PART OF THE MONTH WAS EXTREMELY COLD  
WITH THANKSGIVING DAY BEING THE COLDEST EVER IN SOME LOCATIONS.  
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH WAS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH ABOVE  
NORMAL SNOWFALL.  
 
THE FIRST 2 WEEKS OF DECEMBER WERE COLD WITH DAILY TEMPERATURES 5  
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES MODERATED TREMENDOUSLY WITH  
THE LAST 2 WEEKS OF THE MONTH BEING QUITE MILD. PRECIPITATION WAS  
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL SNOWFALL.  
 
THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE INDICATING A NORTHWESTERLY  
FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES  
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE STORM TRACK SOUTH  
OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED  
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THIS PATTERN MAY REMAIN FOR A GOOD PORTION  
OF JANUARY.  
 
THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 10 DAY FORECAST CALLS  
FOR NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO  
SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. THE 8 TO 14 DAY FORECAST  
CALLS FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE  
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.  
   
..OBSERVED SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT
 
 
   
..NEW HAMPSHIRE
 
 
THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ON THE GROUND ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW  
HAMPSHIRE IN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY.  
 
SNOW DEPTH INCREASES IN THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE  
MONADNOCK REGION WITH 1 TO 5 INCHES ON THE GROUND.  
 
MOVING NORTH INTO CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE SACO AND  
PEMIGEWASSET RIVER BASINS SNOW DEPTH INCREASES TO 6 TO AS MUCH AS  
22 INCHES. FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NORTH TO THE CANADIAN BORDER  
SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 1 TO 2 FEET.  
 
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM LITTLE IF ANY IN SOUTHEAST NEW  
HAMPSHIRE UP TO 0.5 TO 1.5 IN THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHERN NEW  
HAMPSHIRE. FROM THE SACO AND PEMIGEWASSET RIVER BASINS NORTH TO  
THE CANADIAN BORDER SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 2 TO 6  
INCHES.  
 
SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT ARE BELOW NORMAL IN CENTRAL AND  
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND MOST OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER BASIN AND  
NEAR NORMAL IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  
   
..WESTERN MAINE
 
 
SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 6 INCHES OR LESS NEAR THE COAST TO 6 TO 14  
INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS. NORTH OF THE FOOTHILLS TO THE CANADIAN  
BORDER SNOW DEPTH RANGES FROM 14 TO 26 INCHES.  
 
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT RANGES FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN SOUTHERN MAINE  
UP TO 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM THE FOOTHILLS NORTH TO THE CANADIAN  
BORDER.  
 
SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT IS BELOW NORMAL IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND ABOVE  
NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS.  
   
..SOIL MOISTURE AND WATER SUPPLY CONDITIONS
 
 
SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALY MAPS FROM JANUARY 9 INDICATE ABOVE NORMAL  
MOISTURE CONDITIONS IN WESTERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. THIS  
IS LIKELY DUE TO THE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN NOVEMBER AND  
THE THAW AND HEAVY RAIN THAT OCCURRED LATE IN DECEMBER.  
 
THE LONG TERM PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX FROM JANUARY 5  
INDICATES EXTREMELY MOIST CONDITIONS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND  
COASTAL MAINE. NEAR NORMAL TO UNUSUALLY MOIST CONDITION EXIST IN  
NORTHERN AREAS.  
 
RESERVOIRS IN THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER BASIN ARE 83.8 PERCENT FULL  
WHICH IS 25.3 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
ALL RESERVOIRS IN THE KENNEBEC RIVER BASIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR  
THE TIME OF YEAR.  
 
GROUNDWATER LEVELS COURTESY OF THE USGS SHOW THAT MONITORING  
WELLS IN WESTERN MAINE ARE ABOVE NORMAL WITH FEW EXCEPTIONS. IN  
NEW HAMPSHIRE GROUNDWATER IS MOSTLY AT NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS  
FOR THE TIME OF YEAR WITH FEW EXCEPTIONS.  
   
..RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS
 
 
RIVER FLOWS ARE ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND SNOWMELT IN  
LATE DECEMBER.  
 
DUE TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND MILD WEATHER LATE IN DECEMBER MUCH OF  
THE ICE THAT HAD ACCUMULATED IN SOUTHERN MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW  
HAMPSHIRE RIVERS MELTED AWAY. ICE STILL EXISTS ON SMALLER RIVERS  
AND STREAMS IN CENTRAL AND MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. WHILE THE THREAT OF  
ICE JAM FLOODING IS CURRENTLY BELOW NORMAL, THE RETURN OF COLD  
WEATHER WILL HASTEN THE FORMATION OF ICE ACROSS WESTERN MAINE AND  
NEW HAMPSHIRE.  
   
..IN CONCLUSION
 
 
BASED ON THE ABOVE INFORMATION THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL  
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND  
BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.  
 
THE OF FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS BELOW NORMAL.  
 
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT MAJOR FLOODING DOES NOT OCCUR FROM  
SNOWMELT ALONE. RAINFALL, HOW MUCH AND IN HOW SHORT A PERIOD OF  
TIME IS THE MOST IMPORTANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF  
FLOODING.  
 
THE NEXT WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8  
AM FRIDAY JANUARY 25.  
 

 
 
TFH  
 
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