725
FXUS61 KGYX 141857
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
257 PM EDT TUE APR 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE TODAY.
2. ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY.
3. LOW PRESSURE IS LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BRINGING MORE RAIN AND STORMS TO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE.
4. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES START TO SUBSIDE AND LEAD WAY TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR THE CHANCE OF SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS
NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. OVERALL TEMPERATURES HAVE ENDED
UP WARMER THAN FORECASTED TODAY, ADDING CONFIDENCE TO THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL. SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE HAS THE GREATEST
SEVERE POTENTIAL, WITH WIND BEING THE MAIN CONCERN. A NON ZERO
CHANCE OF A TORNADO, AND SOME HAIL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THESE STORMS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE EVENING HOURS, AND
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE LAYER ACROSS
MAINE AND THE NH SEACOAST. THE REMNANT SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSH
OFFSHORE BY LATE EVENING, WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE MARINE LAYER MOVES ASHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
WEDNESDAY'S WEATHER LOOKS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO TODAY'S, BUT
OVERALL COOLER ACROSS MAINE AND EASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH A
CLOUDIER START TO THE DAY. TEMPS LIKELY WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. ANOTHER REMNANT MCS DRIFTS EASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE MUCH
MORE LIMITED.
LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A BACK DOOR FRONT STALLS
NEAR THE MAINE/NH BORDER. OVERALL THE PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN REDUCED SINCE YESTERDAY, AND WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
DISCERN FROM AN AVERAGE SEA BREEZE FRONT GOING INTO THURSDAY.
MORE FOG AND LOW MARINE CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW NIGHT
NEAR AND EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THURSDAY MORNING, A WARM FRONT TURNS STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STATIONARY, PERSISTENT SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO MOVE IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. A NORTHWARD PIVOT OF THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY MAY ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR IN THE SOUTH. IF THIS IS THE
CASE, CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST AGAIN FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
BY THE END OF THE EVENING, THE LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. A
BREAK IN THE UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS LIKELY ON SATURDAY, THOUGH
RAIN RE- ENTERS THE PICTURE ON SUNDAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD
FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
TEMPERATURE-WISE, A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY PRETTY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL STILL VARY GREATLY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE LOWER
70S ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE. A SEA BREEZE AND
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT BOTH WILL LIKELY KEEP COASTAL AREAS AND MAINE AT
LEAST 10-15F COOLER THAN NEW HAMPSHIRE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE FIRST DROP OFF IN TEMPERATURES OCCURS ON SATURDAY, AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW ON FRIDAY USHERS IN COOLER AIR AND STARTS TO
FLATTEN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND LOOK TO
BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THE SECOND DROP-OFF IN
TEMPERATURES OCCURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT COULD HAVE SOME MORE POTENT ARCTIC AIR BEHIND
IT AND MAY BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MAINLY VFR PREVAILS AT LEB, MHT, AND CON, EXCEPT SOME BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM THIS
EVENING. ELSEWHERE, PERIODS OF MVFR DUE TO CEILINGS AND SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY BY THIS EVENING, WITH IFR IN LOW CEILINGS MORE LIKELY
AT PSM, PWM, RKD, AND AUG TONIGHT. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND VFR
IS LIKELY TOMORROW, THEN MVFR AND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IFR WITH LOW CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN
ALONG COASTAL TERMINALS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SATURDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
GENERALLY FAIR WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A BACKDOOR FRONT STALLS NEAR THE COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEKEND,
WITH VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS OF AROUND 2-5FT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/PALMER
AVIATION...CLAIR/PALMER
MARINE...CLAIR/PALMER
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