343  
FXUS61 KGYX 291945  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
345 PM EDT WED MAR 29 2023  
   
SYNOPSIS  
 
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT BRINGING GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS AND  
SOME SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY  
ACROSS THE SOUTH. COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO  
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY  
SATURDAY WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION  
FRIDAY THAT WILL BECOME ALL RAIN SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN  
BUILDS IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 
 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/  
 
A FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH THE  
GREAT LAKES BRINGS A LINE OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS IN  
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE MOST IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE  
A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY TO FALL WITH THE SQUALLS IN  
ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE  
NH/VT BORDER AROUND ABOUT 9-10PM, AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD  
THROUGH THE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE  
IN THE MANCHESTER AND PORTLAND AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND EXIT  
THE MIDCOAST REGION BY ABOUT 4-5AM. THE LINE WILL GRADUALLY  
WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP  
RATES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS, AND THE LIGHTEST ACROSS  
SOUTHEASTERN AND COASTAL AREAS.  
 
AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH AND  
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY START AS SOME RAIN SHOWERS,  
BUT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL AS THE PRECIP RATES INCREASE AND  
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITHIN ABOUT AN HOUR OF BEGINNING.  
COATINGS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS  
AND FOOTHILLS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE  
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, FURTHER REDUCING VISIBILITY IN THE HEAVY  
SNOW RATES.  
 
ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH  
FREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING  
BELOW FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE BEST  
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE  
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THESE AREAS WILL  
SEE ENOUGH PRECIP AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO  
CAUSE SOME REFREEZING WATER AND SLICK CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE,  
SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE AS TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW  
FREEZING, BUT WITH WARM ROADS AT THE START, LIGHTER PRECIP  
AMOUNTS, AND TEMPERATURES FALLING MORE SLOWLY, MOST OF THE WATER  
ON THE ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO  
FREEZE, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD IMPACTS IN THESE  
AREAS.  
 
 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/  
 
THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW, WITH A  
COOL AND GUSTY DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE  
30S MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH  
TEMPS IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 30  
TO 35 MPH WILL ADD A LITTLE MORE CHILL TO THE AIR, DESPITE  
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH WINDS  
EASING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE  
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR  
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS  
NORTHERN VALLEYS AND AREAS OF SNOWPACK. TEMPS COOL INTO THE 20S  
ACROSS COASTAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS, TEENS INLAND, AND LOW TEENS  
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.  
 
 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/  
 
AFTER A COOL FRIDAY MORNING, WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF  
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POISED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES  
AND THEN NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS  
SYSTEM WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO  
START FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA  
SATURDAY LEADING TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT. OVERALL RAINFALL AND  
COMBINED SNOWMELT WILL CAUSE SOME RIVER RISES, WHILE FLOOD  
CONCERNS ARE LOW. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES  
SATURDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY  
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SYSTEM  
CROSSING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.  
 
THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL  
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IS  
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION  
PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF LIGHT  
SNOW MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE  
SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SATURDAY, PORTIONS  
OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BECOME ENVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOW  
FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT PUSHES IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. A COLD  
AIR DAM SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR HOLDING  
INTO LATE SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO  
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY  
MORNING ALONG THE WESTERN MAINE FOOTHILLS AND POINTS  
NORTHEASTWARD. EVENTUALLY ABOVE FREEZING AIR OVERSPREADS THE  
ENTIRE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON LEADING TO  
PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL RAIN. TRENDS AMONGST ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN  
FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN QPF WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS NOW CLOSER TO  
0.75 INCHES.  
 
THERE SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON,  
AND SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.  
CLEARING COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE LOW 60S  
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. SOME SURFACE HEATING WOULD DESTABILIZE THE  
ENVIRONMENT A BIT WITH CAMS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 500J/KG OF  
SURFACE CAPE WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE  
SYSTEMS TRAILING COLD FRONT. SATURDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT  
WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME  
INSTABILITY HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER ACROSS  
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO NORTHWEST AFTER THE  
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, AND SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE  
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY  
WILL FEATURE FAIR SKIES, BREEZY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AROUND  
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
THE NEXT WORK WEEK STARTS OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON  
MONDAY, AND WARMTH BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM  
SKATES TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY, BRINGING MAINLY  
SOME SHOWERS WITH IT. THESE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH  
COUNTRY. WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO  
ENTER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPEARS PRETTY SIMILAR  
TO THIS WEEKEND'S AND THE COLD AIR DAM COULD PROVIDE SOME WINTER  
WEATHER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.  
 
 
   
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/  
 
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE  
NIGHT, BUT A FAST MOVING LINE OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS  
WILL BRING ABOUT TWO TO THREE HOURS OF RESTRICTIONS WITH IFR TO  
LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM BRIEF HEAVY  
SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN TERMINALS, WITH  
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TERMINALS SEEING LESSER IMPACTS. THE LINE  
OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THIS EVENING  
THROUGH PREDAWN TOMORROW. MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS LINGER AT HIE  
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH DAYBREAK TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS  
RETURN BY TOMORROW MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH GUSTY WESTERLY  
WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS LIKELY MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS THEN EASE  
TOMORROW EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW  
NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM...CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF  
WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY THAT WILL CHANGE OVER  
TO RAIN SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING  
INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON  
BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES BRINGING RENEWED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS  
SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  
 
 
   
MARINE  
 
SHORT TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING, AND  
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND  
BRING SCA CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE  
FRONT THEN CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WESTERLY WINDS  
BRING SCA CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW. A FEW GUSTS TO  
GALE FORCE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TOMORROW. WINDS EASE TOMORROW NIGHT  
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS AND BRINGS IMPROVING  
CONDITIONS.  
 
LONG TERM...SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY EVENING INTO  
SATURDAY MORNING AS SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE  
PASSING NW OF THE WATERS. SW TO S MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE BY  
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT  
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NW WITH SCAS LIKELY NEEDED  
THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES  
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT  
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.  
 
 
 
 
 
NEAR TERM...CLAIR  
SHORT TERM...CLAIR  
LONG TERM...PALMER/SCHROETER  
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