417
FXUS61 KGYX 090627
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
127 AM EST MON FEB 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY HAVE
INCREASED ALONG WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY WITH A COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE -15F TO -25F ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR WESTERN MAINE WHERE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING.
2. WIDESPREAD SNOW IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BRING POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE TUESDAY
EVENING COMMUTE AND THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
ANOTHER COLD MORNING IS STORE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE WIND IN
SOME AREAS HAVE GONE CALM ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE
QUICKLY WITH KHIE AT -21F AS OF THIS WRITING. AREAS THAT REMAIN
BREEZY WILL SEE WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO WITH AREAS IN THE
ADVISORY SEEING WIND CHILLS OF -15F TO -25F BELOW.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, BUT STILL
SEASONABLY COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS RELAX
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE
NORTH AND NEAR ZERO ACROSS THE SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MODEL TRENDS ARE SHOWING A SIGNAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT'S SYSTEM. THE SNOW WILL ARRIVE WITH A
MID- LEVEL WARM FRONT PASSING SOUTHEASTWARD. THE INCREASE IN
SNOW AMOUNTS MAKES SENSE GIVEN A FEW FACTORS. FIRST, THE SURFACE
LOW IS IN AN UPPER- LEVEL DIVERGENCE ZONE, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR
THE LOW TO STRENGTHEN WITH ITS PASSAGE. NEXT, THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROWAL WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF MESOSCALE SNOWBANDING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIRD, SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE ONSET OF THE
SYSTEM'S ARRIVAL MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT IN
THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF.
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN EXPECTED SNOWFALL, MOSTLY ONLY MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY. AT THE MOMENT, WE HAVE ABOUT 3-5 INCHES OF
SNOW, AND PERHAPS REACHING OVER 6 INCHES LOCALLY. STILL, IMPACTS
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED TO JUST SOME MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS DURING
THE TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AM COMMUTE. SNOW SHOWERS MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY: VFR WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS TOWARDS HIE.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH COVERAGE THESE CLOUDS
PRODUCE. THERE WILL BE A LOWER JET OF 40 KT WINDS MOVING
THROUGH TONIGHT, CREATING SOME LLWS FOR MOST INTERIOR TERMINALS.
LLWS SHOULD SLACKEN MON MORNING AS SURFACE WINDS AGAIN PICK UP
DUE TO MIXING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING LATER IN THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT: IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW.
WEDNESDAY: WIDESPREAD IFR ENDING, BUT LINGERING LOCAL IFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
FRIDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH SOME THROUGH MORNING WHILE GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 25 TO 30 KTS RANGE INTO TONIGHT. MODERATE
FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY INTO MID MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS DROP
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TUE AND REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND CONDITIONS WELL OUTSIDE THE BAYS MAY
APPROACH MARGINAL SCA CRITERIA, BUT LARGELY EXPECTING THE MAJORITY
OF THE MARINE ZONES TO STAY BELOW HEADLINE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MEZ007-
012-018-019-033.
NH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NHZ001>011-015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ150>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ151-
153.
DISCUSSION...PALMER/SCHROETER/TUBBS
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