110
FXUS61 KGYX 161052
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
652 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1. AFTER SUBSTANTIAL RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS, WE'LL SWITCH
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND. AFTER A LONG
BELOW NORMAL STRETCH OF WEATHER, OUTDOOR RECREATION WILL BE IN
HIGH DEMAND AND AREA INLAND AND OCEAN WATERS REMAIN VERY COLD.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK WITH
CHANCES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD ALSO BE THE TWO WARMEST DAYS OF THE
YEAR SO FAR.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER SOME EARLY MORNING FOG TODAY, SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
KICK IN AND START OUR WARM STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SHIFT NOTED, WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S THIS WEEKEND, THIS WILL BE THE FIRST WELL ABOVE NORMAL
STRETCH IN A WHILE, AND THE EXPECTATION IS THAT LOTS OF PEOPLE
WILL BE ANXIOUS TO GET OUT AND ENJOY THAT WEATHER. THE CONCERN
IS THAT INLAND AND OCEAN WATERS REMAIN VERY COLD. FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS WE HAVE CONTINUED A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT
THOSE WATERS TEMPS IN THE 40S STILL. INLAND, RIVERS AND LAKES
ARE COLD, PLUS RECENT RAINFALL HAS THE RIVERS RUNNING SWIFT. SO
WE HAVE ALSO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CONTINUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR INLAND COLD WATERS.
THERE'S A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT SHOWERS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH WEAK WAA, BUT THESE LOOK LIGHT
AT BEST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE AS THE AIR MASS WILL BE QUITE DRY. WARM WEATHER
CONTINUES SUNDAY BUT A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS RETURNING TO THE 30S IN
MOUNTAINS ZONES AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS,
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST INTO THE WORK WEEK. MONDAY
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
NORTH, TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY DAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
PEAKING OUT.
THE RIDGE FLATTENS OUT A LITTLE BIT ON TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL LIKELY STAY NORTH OF THE BORDER BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH OF A GLANCING BLOW TO AT LEAST BRING SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
SOME WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE
1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE DEPENDING ON THE PARCEL TRACE. SHEAR
WILL BE RATHER MARGINAL WITH STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
DISPLACED TO THE NORTH, BUT WE COULD STILL SEE SOME DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. THIS ENVIRONMENT WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONGER MULTICELL STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.
THAT BEING SAID, THE LATEST GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS PAINT A
PICTURE OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER INSTABILITY AND THE SAME MARGINAL
SHEAR. THUS A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AS WELL. AS A FINAL NOTE FORE THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL, THE
CSU MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME LOW SEVERE
WEATHER PROBABILITIES EACH DAY FOR OUR AREA SO IT WILL REMAIN A
PERIOD TO WATCH, BUT TODAY'S MODEL TRENDS SEEMED TO HAVE BACKED
OFF A LITTLE BIT WITH REGARDS TO THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE OUR TWO WARMEST DAYS
OF THE YEAR THUS FAR WITH SOME WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. A FEW LOWER 90S WILL EVEN BE POSSIBLE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ON TUESDAY.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING, LEADING TO A COOLER AND DRY END OF THE WORK
WEEK. HIGHS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY COULD MAINLY BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S. WITH VERY LITTLE NBM SPREAD, THIS COOL DOWN IS A FAIRLY
HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR BEING ON DAYS 6 AND 7.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BULK
OF THE DAY TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW PROB
FOR SOME PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT IN
POSSIBLE SHOWERS. SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR EXPECTED. GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT OUT OF
THE WEST ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: MVFR DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
STILL DEALING WITH LARGE SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET GENERALLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DID HOWEVER, LOWER WIND GUSTS SOME FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AS SHARP LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL EXIST.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MID-WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AGAIN.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/EKSTER/HARGROVE
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