346
FXUS61 KGYX 031032
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
632 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE.
CONTINUING TO WATCH FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING TODAY WITH
VERY HEAVY DOWNPURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH
TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION.
2. HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH CHANCES FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AN H5 TROF AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TODAY FROM
WEST TO EAST WHILE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILED AS A SFC LOW TRACKS
TO OUR WEST OVER QUEBEC. A SFC WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THIS MORNING, PLACING MUCH OF THE REGION WITHIN A BROAD WARM
SECTOR WITH DEEP S-SW FLOW. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE
THROUGH TODAY WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASING UP TO AROUND
2.00", WHICH IS AROUND +2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. THIS COMBINED
WITH RELATIVELY DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO AROUND 13 KFT WILL
ALLOW FOR EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS WITHIN ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME BACKBUILDING/TRAINING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
RELATIVELY SHORT CORFIDI VECTORS. DESPITE THIS, THE RAINFALL
WILL BE BENEFICIAL IN MOST LOCATIONS AS OUTSIDE OF PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHERN NH, MOST AREAS REMAIN QUITE DRY. GIVEN THE
LARGE STORAGE CAPACITY OF AREA RIVERS, RIVER FLOODING IS NOT
EXPECTED BUT SOME LOCALIZED NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE HEAVY RAINFALL DOES OCCUR. THERE IS
ALSO A NONZERO THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED IN SCOPE. GENERALLY EXPECTING UP TO AROUND 2"
OF RAINFALL ON LOCALIZED SCALES BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
THE OTHER THING TO WATCH WILL BE FOR POSSIBLE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER EARLIER DAY RAIN IS
ABLE TO CLEAR IN TIME FOR ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR BUT
MOST CAMS DO SHOW MODEST MLCAPE TO DEVELOP OF BETWEEN 500-1000
J/KG, WHICH WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH UP TO 45 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR A STRONG STORM WILL BE ACROSS NH
WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
IT WILL OTHERWISE BE A MUGGY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE
70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE
INTO THE 50S WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
TUESDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO
CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH MID
TO UPPER 70S TO THE NORTH, AS SKIES QUICKLY CLEAR OUT. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH CALMING WIND, SO WE
SHOULD SEE A COOLER NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 50S. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OVERHEAD WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A TROUGH BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS IS GOING TO RE-
ESTABLISH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND ONCE AGAIN ADVECT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER, THIS TIME THE STRENGTHENING
BERMUDA HIGH IS GOING TO LARGELY KEEP THE LOWER LEVELS DRY, SO
THIS LIKELY ONLY RESULTS IN INCREASED HUMIDITY. THE RIDGE AXIS
STAYS OFF TO THE EAST SO THE BUILDING HEAT WON'T GET TOO OUT OF
HAND, BUT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 90F DEGREE MARK EACH AFTERNOON AND WITH ELEVATED
DEWPOINTS IT IS GOING TO FEEL A BIT WARMER. THIS IS GOING TO
MAKE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES WARM TOO AS THEY CAN ONLY COOL TO
THE DEWPOINTS WHICH LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 500 MB FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL SUNDAY WHICH MAY BE A TURNING POINT FOR THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY, BUT THAT BEING AT THE END OF THE FORECAST WE WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THE TRENDS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WON'T BE NIL, BUT THEY ARE LOOKING LIKE
THEY WILL BE SPARSE WITH NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING. GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE BROADER TROUGH LATE WEEK, BUT THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT AS OF LATE SO IT IS HARD TO SAY IF WE WILL SEE
ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST SPOTTY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
AT THIS POINT. MANY LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: SHRA AND LOW CEILINGS WILL RESULT IN IFR
OR WORSE RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH S-SW WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25 KTS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR A TSRA WILL BE AT LEB, HIE, MHT, AND CON. A PERIOD
OF LLWS POSSIBLE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 16Z-00Z TUE AT PSM, PWM, AND
RKD. SHRA WILL END TONIGHT BUT LINGERING LOW CEILINGS AND
POSSIBLE FG WILL LIKELY RESULT IN CONTINUED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR IFR FOG AT SOME TERMINALS DURING THE NIGHT AS WE
ENTER A PERIOD OF INCREASING HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEK.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE CROSSING WEST OF THE WATERS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT. AN SCA IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING.
THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENS TUESDAY MAKING FOR SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
DISCUSSION...BARON/EKSTER/TUBBS
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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