401
FXUS61 KGYX 120007
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
807 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS AND TO
EXPIRE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED TONIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE.
2. LOW PRESSURE DOMINATES NEW ENGLAND IN THE 2ND HALF OF THIS
WEEK, BRING MULTIPLE DAYS OF POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
THROUGH FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL LOSE DAYTIME FUEL INTO
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FOLLOWING SUITE, MUCH OF TODAY'S CU
FIELD SHOULD DWINDLE. THIS WILL LEAVE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR TONIGHT.
THE CLEAR SKIES SHOULD HELP DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER
60S QUICKLY COOL. BARRING A PERSISTENT SFC BREEZE, TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RADIATE WELL ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND INTERIOR LEADING TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. THIS RESULTS IN GRAFTON
AND SULLIVAN CO IN NH FALLING TOWARDS FREEZE CRITERIA AND POINTS
FROM SW NH THROUGH THE ME/NH LAKES REGION FALLING INTO FROST
CRITERIA TONIGHT. CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FROST AT TYPICALLY COOLER
POINTS TOWARDS THE ME MIDCOAST, BUT SOME LINGERING CIRRUS AND
NW BREEZE MAY LIMIT TEMP FLUX THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY, BUT WITH NO SHOWER CHANCES AND
A LITTLE MORE BREEZE. WILL BE FOCUSING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FROST HEADLINES, BUT CLOUDS
AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER WEDNESDAY MAY PLAY SPOIL. WITH
HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING OVERHEAD, DON'T EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO
GET IN THE WAY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR NOW, RAPID COOLING
WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IN THE EVENING AFTER SUNSET BUT BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS BEGIN TO ADVANCE FROM THE SW, SO
WEST/CENTRAL ME MAY SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES FOR THE NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR MID TO LATE
WEEK AS UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF WED THROUGH
FRI.
ON WEDNESDAY AND UPPER LOW AND SLOW-MOING ATTENDANT SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES STATES.
LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING DETERMINISTICS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW
REASONABLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH PERIODS OF WET WEATHER,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO BE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY DAYTIME. THE AVERAGE SOLUTION HAS CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN LIGHT RAIN AND POTENTIAL
COASTAL STRATUS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BASICALLY STALLS
NEARBY ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE AND
PERHAPS SOME FOG ALONG WITH COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WILL LIKELY LOWER GOING TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE
DAYTIME HOURS LATE IN THE WEEK.
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRIER FOR THE MOMENT BUT WE'LL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR AS THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT WITHIN THE
VARIOUS GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH PLACEMENT AND
SPEED.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS HAVE DISSIPATED
AND CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALSO DISSIPATED BUT ENOUGH FLOW SHOULD
PREVENT VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESP DUE TO DRIER SURFACE
CONDITIONS. NW WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS
15 TO 20 KTS EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD KEEP SEA BREEZE OFF
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL DISSIPATE TUESDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR EXPECTED WITH INCREASING UPPER CLOUD DECK.
WEDNESDAY: AM VFR, MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO RAIN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLD
THUNDER. AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN PERIODS OF
HEAVIER RAIN.
SATURDAY: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SOUTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND MAY RISE TO SCA
LEVELS LATER WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THURS. WINDS DIMINISH AND
FLIP TO LIGHT NORTHERLIES BY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH SEAS
CONTINUING TO REMAIN AT 3-5 FT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ012-013-
018>020-033.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ004-006-
008>011-015.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ003-005-
007.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/EKSTER/SCHROETER
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