404
FXUS61 KGYX 190632
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
232 AM EDT FRI JUN 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST PRODUCTS FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS UNTIL MONDAY WHEN IT LOOKS LIKE MORE RAIN FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1. UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
2. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW AND
EMBEDDED WAVES STEMMING FROM THIS LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT
TO GET SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS GOING, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON
TO EARLY EVENING, AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY BUILDS. THIS WILL BE
MAINLY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAINS, AND A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN
SMALL HAIL.
OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE A BREEZY AND PARTLY SUNNY DAY, ALTHOUGH THERE
MAY BE PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALOFT. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND GOOD
MIXING WILL BRING DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT RESULTING IN A
BREEZY DAY. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ON THE HIGHER END. HIGHS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, EXCEPT A BIT
COOLER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS LIKELY REMAIN SOMEWHAT BREEZY INTO FRIDAY EVENING BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EASE OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW, BUT WHATEVER ACTIVITY
DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO FADE AROUND SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 40S ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
SATURDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH NW WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH GUSTING UP TO 30
MPH. UPSLOPE NEAR BLOCKED FLOW WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WHILE SHOWER CHANCES
DECREASE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTH TO NEAR 80F NEAR THE COAST
WITH THE AID OF DOWNSLOPING WINDS. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN OVER
THE AREA SUNDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT WINDS TURNING ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA COMBINED WITH SB CAPE
BUILDING TO 1000 J/KG WILL ALLOW FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. THE LACK OF
SHEAR WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY STORMS SUB-SEVERE WHILE STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW FREEZING LEVELS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SMALL
HAIL.
MUCH OF THE SAME CAN BE SAID FOR SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS WITH COLD AIR LINGERING ALOFT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT A SECOND UPPER LOW IS
GOING TO MOVE THROUGH ONTARIO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ATTENDANT
TROUGH BEGINNING TO DIG IN TO THE REGION AS WELL. THE MODELS
HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING SINCE YESTERDAY, WITH
A SURFACE LOW FORMING IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY ON MONDAY
AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. THE TRACK HAS BECOME
MORE UNCERTAIN WITH THE EURO AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE CAMPS
TRENDING THE LOW MORE INLAND, WHEREAS THE GFS IS CONTINUING TO
SUGGEST A COASTAL SYSTEM. REGARDLESS THIS LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, AND IT COULD BE JUICY TOO.
ENSEMBLES ARE ALREADY STARTING TO HONE IN ON PWATS CLIMBING INTO
THE 1.50 TO 1.75" RANGE ON MONDAY AND NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL ARE IN THE 50 TO 60% RANGE. WE HAVE
SEEN PLENTY OF RAIN RECENTLY, SO WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW THIS
SYSTEM TRENDS CLOSELY AS IT COULD POSE A RISK FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
AFTER THE MONDAY SYSTEM, THE AREA REMAINS UNDER BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW,
BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD TREND THINGS DRIER, BUT ALSO LEAVES THE DOOR OPEN FOR
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH DIURNAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. WESTERLY WINDS GUST 20 TO 30 KT AT
TIMES TODAY AND SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY-TUESDAY: LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING MORE WIDESPREAD IFR AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS TODAY WITH GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, BUT
SEAS MAY REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP NEAR COASTAL NEW ENGLAND MONDAY
BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCAS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ151-154.
DISCUSSION...BARON/COMBS/EKSTER/SCHROETER
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