091
FXUS61 KGYX 031844
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
244 PM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COLDER WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. OVERNIGHT FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, ALONG
WITH LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE REGION THRU SUN NIGHT.
THAT MEANS FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE EXPECTED.
TONIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT. THE NORTHERN VALLEYS SHOULD
DROP TO OR JUST BELOW FREEZING, WHILE SOME UPPER 30S MAY SNEAK
DOWN TO THE COAST AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH. SO I DO EXPECT SOME
LOCALIZED FROST POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST SPOTS FOR ZONES STILL
ACTIVE IN THE GROWING SEASON, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR
HEADLINES. IT WILL ALSO BE AN IDEAL NIGHT FOR VALLEY FOG. I
ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE, WITH THE
MAJOR VALLEYS MORE LIKELY TO SEE DENSE FOG.
SUN WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT
TROF. THEY WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST SUN NIGHT. I CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SNEAKING INTO
BOTH THE MTNS FROM THE COLD FRONT ITSELF AND ALONG THE COAST AS
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED NORTH INTO THE APPROACHING TROF. BECAUSE OF
THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER, SUN NIGHT SHOULD BE MUCH WARMER
THAN TONIGHT AND FROST/FOG IS NOT EXPECTED.
A FRONT BEGINS CROSSING THE AREA MONDAY MORNING AND SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY TAG ALONG WITH IT, BUT THE OVERALL
POSITION OF THE GUIDANCE HASN'T BUDGED. THE LATEST NBM GIVES
JUST ABOUT EVERYONE AROUND A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEEING
MEASURABLE RAIN, BUT ANY CHANCES OF OVER A TENTH GET RELEGATED
TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND EVEN THEN THE PROBABILITIES ARE
ONLY 50 TO 70 PERCENT. THE ENDING TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
TRENDING EARLIER AS WELL, SO IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CHANCE FOR A
LIGHT SNOW SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT IS GOING TO BE CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY IS
GOING TO BRING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS INTO THE 25- 35 MPH
RANGE. THESE GUSTS WILL BE HIGHER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, SO
ANYONE PLANNING A FALL HIKE SHOULD PREPARE FOR WINTRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING WON'T BE AN ISSUE, BUT THE COLD DRY AIRMASS
BEHIND THE FRONT IS STILL GOING TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL
INTO THE 30S AREA WIDE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE BREEZY WINDS
COULD BRING WINDCHILLS INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
850 MB TEMPERATURES OVERHEAD TUESDAY AFTERNOON ONLY LOOK TO END
UP IN THE -3 TO 0C, SO SURFACE TEMPERATURES ONLY MIX INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S IN THE NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 50S IN THE
SOUTH. WINDS REMAIN BREEZY ON TUESDAY, BUT ARE GOING TO BE
TRENDING DOWN AS THE DAY GOES ON AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
DEPART TO THE NORTHEAST. TUESDAY MAY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
SEASON SO FAR, AND IF WINDS DO END UP CALMING IT CERTAINLY WILL
BE. THE LATEST NBM ALREADY BRINGS NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES
DOWN INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN, AND IF IT ENDS UP LOOKING LIKE A
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT THIS AREA COULD SEE THEIR
FIRST HARD FREEZE. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE AT LEAST FROST
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED, BUT AGAIN MUCH OF THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST HINGES ON THE WIND ACTIVITY. IF WE STAY WELL MIXED LOWS
MAY END UP CLOSER TO WHAT IS OBSERVED ON MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL LARGELY LEAVE OUR AREA DRY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AS TROUGHING ALOFT MAY SUPPORT UPSLOPE SHOWERS AT
TIMES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY THRU SUN.
TONIGHT RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED, AND IS INCLUDED AT BOTH LEB
AND HIE. GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR, FOG LIKELY DOES NOT MIX OUT
UNTIL CLOSER TO 14Z.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY NIGHT: AREAS OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING, WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE. RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY NEAR SUNRISE.
MONDAY: GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE IN LIGHT RAIN, MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 25- 30 KNOTS.
TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST
WINDS CONTINUING, BUT WEAKENING AS THE DAY GOES ON.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: VFR PREVAILS ONCE AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU
THE WEEKEND. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON MOISTURE RETURN TO
SEE IF FOG CAN DEVELOP FAST ENOUGH TO ADVECT OVER THE WATERS BY
EARLY MON.
A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL
BRIEFLY BRING WIND GUSTS 25-30 KTS INTO TUESDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL RESPOND, BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT, BEFORE BOTH DIMINISH BY
THE END OF THE DAY TUESDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARON/LEGRO
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