390
FXUS61 KGYX 261212
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
712 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2021
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND, AN AREA OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GREATEST
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. SNOW WILL
TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
AT THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
715AM UPDATE...
SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS AND I HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. EXPECT THESE TO TAKE A FEW
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. ELSEWHERE IT'S FAIRLY CLEAR EARLY THIS
MORNING AND I'VE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO PULL IN THE LATEST
EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
SPILLING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FOR MOST.
BY THE AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING IN
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND AN AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
TONIGHT. WHILE THE ENERGY WITH THIS LOW TRANSFERS TO A NEW LOW
FORMING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND, THERE WILL
STILL BE AN AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY IMPACTING
SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED. FORCING WEAKENS AS IT ARRIVES AND SPREADS INTO THE
REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, SO EXPECT LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER TO
THE EAST.
WHILE THE OFFSHORE LOW TAKES OVER FULLY ON WEDNESDAY, A
LINGERING TROUGH REMAINS AND COULD LEAD TO A BAND OR TWO OF
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL WITHIN A GENERAL EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.
WHILE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL
FOR JUST ABOUT THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA, IT IS LIKELY THAT A
COUPLE OF BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FORM AND DROP ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO WHERE THEY OCCUR. UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT LOCATIONS WILL
BE IMPACTED BY THIS IS STILL RATHER HIGH AND IT IS REFLECTED IN
THE CHANCE POP AND GENERALIZED LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECASTED
ON WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL BUT A FEW ISOLATED SNOW FLURRIES WILL
HAVE COME TO AN END. IT WILL BE A SHORT BREAK HOWEVER AS ANOTHER
LOW PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF US WITH ARCTIC AIR PULLING IN
BEHIND IT FOR THE WEEKEND.
AS THAT LOW DEPARTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT A BRIEF
WINDOW FOR AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN
MAINE. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLD AIR ALOFT REALLY BEGINS TO ACCELERATE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY
MORNING WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -25C ON THE VERMONT
BORDER. WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IT STILL LEAVES
DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH.
FURTHERMORE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION KEEPING A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WINDCHILL VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH TO NEAR ZERO NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME.
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE, ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO
DROP TO NEAR 20 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH, AND THIS TIME PERIOD WILL
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE SAME
WINDS WILL KEEP THINGS WELL MIXED WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST
SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT.
SATURDAY THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
20S SOUTH TO TEENS NORTH. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND VALLEYS TO
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE DROPPED TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS INCLUDING
IZG BML AND SFM. EXPECT LOWS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TO BOTTOM OUT
NEAR 10 BELOW.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATE WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND
LOWERING CLOUD BASES. BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS MAY ARRIVE IN SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE ALONG WITH SOME
SNOWFALL. THE SNOW OVERSPREADS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. FOR WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL
BE MORE VARIABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BANDS OF SNOWFALL
TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.
LONG TERM... MOSTLY VFR FOR THE EXTENDED. ON THURSDAY SOME SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE REGION. COLD NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH TODAY. ALTHOUGH LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO
OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS LIGHT OVER
THE WATERS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.
LONG TERM...COLD NWLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TO END THE WEEK.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN
THROUGH SUNDAY AS COLD NWLY FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE LATE THURSDAY WITH GALES EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ007-011-012-015.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...CURTIS
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