148
FXUS61 KGYX 061836
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
236 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. HOWEVER,
FREEZE WARNINGS WERE ISSUED FOR ANDROSCOGGIN AND PARTS OF
CUMBERLAND COUNTY TO REFLECT STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED
THERE. FROST ADVISORIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST UPDATE REMAIN
IN PLACE ELSEWHERE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR SPREADS OVERHEAD TODAY
AND TONIGHT. FROST IS LIKELY.
2. WARMER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.
3. HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AT THE START
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
TODAY, SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER NH AND MAINE
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS ARE ALLOWING
GRAVITY WAVES TO FORM, ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH
THESE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES
OVERHEAD. THIS BRIEF PERIOD OF CALM CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW FOR DEEP
RADIATIONAL COOLING TUESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS
WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARER. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD FALL NEAR FREEZING
EVEN ALONG THE COAST. OPTED TO ISSUE FREEZE WARNINGS FOR INTERIOR
CUMBERLAND AND ANDROSCOGGIN COUNTIES, AS THESE COUNTIES ARE MOST
LIKELY TO SEE BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES DUE TO EXCEPTIONALLY CALM
WINDS. KEPT THE FROST ADVISORY ELSEWHERE, AS LIGHT WINDS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN AUGUSTA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NEW ENGLAND TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWEST RETURN FLOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THESE WINDS COULD
GET QUITE BREEZY ALONG THE COAST, WITH GUSTS OF 25MPH POSSIBLE IN
CASCO BAY AND MIDCOAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SHARP REBOUND FROM
THE NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY TO BE SEEN IN THE MORNING.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE, WITH
MID-60S ELSEWHERE. A FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SOME SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE.
DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW
FOR THE CONTINUATION OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE WARMER TEMPERATURE
TREND INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S FORECAST THEN.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND. APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS ON FRIDAY. THESE WINDS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PROJECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR WARMER
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AGAIN. THIS RETURN FLOW, AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING
IS LIKELY TO BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SUGGESTED A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE
IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA. A LOT
OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT THIS TIME, BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THIS
SYSTEM COULD BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY TO SEE MEANINGFUL
RAINFALL.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OVER THE AREA. CHANCES ARE GREATER
TO SEE LOWER RESTRICTIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY: MVFR IN THE MORNING DUE TO SHOWERS. VFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
SUNDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
SCA LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND 3-5FT SEAS WILL DECREASE THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. CALM WINDS
ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND WILL FLIP TO SOUTHERLIES ON WEDNESDAY,
SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLIES ON THURSDAY. SCA ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE AS
GUSTS COULD APPROACH 25KTS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLIES AND LIGHTEN ON FRIDAY. SEAS OF 2-4FT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MEZ019-020.
FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MEZ021>028.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NHZ010-012-013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...PALMER
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