667  
FXUS61 KGYX 042011  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
311 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT  
BEFORE EXITING OFF THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM  
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF  
PRECIPITATION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THIS  
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO  
NEW ENGLAND TO END THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP NEAR  
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
OVERALL A NICE END TO AN EARLY DEC DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.  
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY, BECOMING LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE  
SOUTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS  
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL BE  
WELL TO THE WEST, SO THIS SHOULD PULL GOOD WARM AIR TO QUICKLY  
BEGIN WARMING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  
 
BACK TO TONIGHT, MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT  
SHOULD BE HIGH CLOUD. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BRIEF JET  
ROUNDING BASE OF ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT. CURRENT SATELLITE PINS  
THIS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOWARDS UPSTATE  
NEW YORK, LOWER CLOUDS W/ A PLUME OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE  
SHOULD CLIP AREAS WEST OF THE WHITE MTNS LATER THIS EVENING.  
THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN...AS WELL AS  
THE CHANCE FOR MORE FLURRIES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
ANOTHER RATHER WARM DAY IS SET FOR MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT  
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS FROM THE S WILL HELP BRING SOME OF  
THAT WARM AIR IN. BELIEVE THIS SHOULD ALSO WARM THE CT VALLEY  
PRETTY QUICK GIVEN ITS POLEWARD ORIENTATION, AS WELL AS MUCH OF  
SOUTHERN NH UP THE INTERIOR OF ME AND COAST.  
 
SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AN AREA OF CLOUDS FORMING  
IN VICINITY OF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS OF LOW  
CONFIDENCE, BUT IT COULD PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS. TEMPS  
SHOULD TREND DOWN PER DIURNAL NORMS IN THE EVENING, BUT BEGIN TO  
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT AMID ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO  
BE A GOOD SOURCE OF MOISTURE, SATURATING MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL  
PROFILES BELOW A INVERSION. THIS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF  
DRIZZLE IN THE FOOTHILLS OR MOUNTAINS MON NIGHT. WILL ALSO NEED  
TO WATCH INCOMING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST.  
THIS COULD LEAD TO A SEEDER/FEEDER ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP EARLY  
TUESDAY MORNING. PROFILES ARE MOSTLY WARM DUE TO THE ANTIDIURNAL  
TREND LATE MON NIGHT, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES MIXING IN  
EARLY AS LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING. SNOW  
CHANCES COULD LINGER LONGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MTNS, BUT  
NOT CERTAIN THAT REGION COOLS MUCH BELOW FREEZING AFTER THE  
WARM DAY MONDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS WITH A COUPLE OF  
BROAD FRONTAL ZONES STARTING ON TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND  
MOISTURE ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL BE SLOW TO  
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST TO OUR  
EAST. HOWEVER, A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW  
MOISTURE TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. THEREFORE,  
HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH TIME DURING THE DAY WITH ANY SNOW IN  
THE NORTH CHANGING TO RAIN. THIS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TUESDAY  
NIGHT.  
 
MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE  
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.  
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.  
SOME LOWER 50S CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.  
 
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS  
SUGGEST THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER AIR  
DOWN TO END OUT THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THERE IS VERY LITTLE  
IN THE WAY OF ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IN REGARDS TO A SYSTEM  
TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND POTENTIALLY  
INTENSIFYING SOMEWHERE OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE  
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS LOW.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. A FEW  
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KHIE THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT S MONDAY  
MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE ME/NH COASTAL TAF  
SITES MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWERING CEILINGS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY  
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY.  
 
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY ON TUESDAY OVER  
NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER, LOWERING CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION  
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE ENTERS THE REGION AHEAD OF  
AN APPROACHING FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING IFR AND  
LIFR CONDITIONS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTH FROM THE GULF OF  
MAINE. IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE  
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH A  
WARM FRONT LIFTING WEST OF THE WATERS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR  
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY. A SCA WILL  
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE  
COASTAL WATERS AS GUSTS TOP OUT AROUND 30 KT. WAVES REMAIN  
AROUND 3 TO 4 FT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS  
UNTIL WE REACH TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT BECOMES GUSTY  
OVER THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST GUSTING TO 25 KT ON  
WEDNESDAY. A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN  
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD OVER TIME.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
NEAR/SHORT TERM...CORNWELL  
LONG TERM...CANNON  
 
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