003
FXUS61 KGYX 090532
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1232 AM EST FRI JAN 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZING FOG ACCRETION THAT WILL CAUSE SLICK DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.
A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THE OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH NORTHWARD AND INCLUDES
PENOBSCOT BAY. A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS.
THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TREND COOLER.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A CONTROLLED MELT IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND RAIN SHOWERS. NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED EXCEPT
FOR SOME NUISANCE POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES.
2) A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS ACCOMPANY A PASSING COLD FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE STRONGEST GUSTS WILL IMPACT THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT SOME
WESTERLY GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO
THE COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
3) SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION ARE LIKELY TO CREATE SLICK
TRAVEL CONDITIONS AS IT MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND LASTS
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
4) COLD AND BREEZY MONDAY, A BRIEF WARM UP HEADING INTO
MIDWEEK, THEN BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK.
-
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES FRIDAY MORNING THAT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING BY MID MORNING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH QUEBEC
AREA WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MAINLY BRING LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WHERE SOME FREEZING RAIN IS
POSSIBLE. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO SURGE ABOVE FREEZING WHICH WILL
LEAD TO A MELT PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND COLDER BACK INTO THE AREA. OVERALL SOME SNOW-
MELT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE, BUT FURTHER
INLAND, IT WILL BE RIPENING EVENT IN THE FOOTHILLS AND SNOWPACK
SETTLING IN THE MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALSO LOOK LIGHT, UNDER
A QUARTER OF AN INCH FOR THE REGION, WILL MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS MORE AROUND .10" FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING A
STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
STRENGTHENING UPPER JET AROUND 180KT WILL AID IN FURTHER DEEPENING
OF THIS LOW, WITH MID AND LOW LEVEL JETS RESPONDING. THE LATEST
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE MEAN BRINGS A CORRIDOR OF 55 TO 65KT EASTERLY
WINDS AT 850 MB ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH STRONG GUSTS
EXPECTED FOR THE WHITES AND THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS AND
COASTAL WATERS.
WITH THE WIND SHIFTING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASING BEHIND THE
FRONT, IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR LOW LEVELS TO REMAIN MIXED. THIS
WOULD MEAN OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IMPACT WISE NOT EXPECTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF POWER
OUTAGES, MAYBE A LIMITED THREAT IN THE SPARSELY POPULATED WESTERN
MAINE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
PRESSURE OCCLUDES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AS
IT MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THEY ARE ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE FORMATION OF A SECONDARY LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS
SECONDARY LOW WOULD ACT TO PULL IN COLDER AIR FROM THE
NORTHEAST, AS WELL AS PROVIDE SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE OFF THE
OCEAN, WHILE WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVERRUNS IT ALOFT. WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-40S EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY, I THINK SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOME EXTENT OF THE COASTAL PLAIN COULD SEE RAIN TO
START AS COLD AIR WON'T BE PENETRATING THAT FAR SOUTH YET, BUT
INTERIOR LOCATIONS STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A MIX FROM
THE GET GO. LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS QUICKLY FALL BELOW
FREEZING AND LIKELY SEE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT.
ALL THIS BEING SAID, THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE DOESN'T LOOK THAT
JUICY. THE GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLES AND THERE RESPECTIVE AI
COUNTERPARTS, ARE PROGGING QPF AT AROUND 0.25-0.50" WITH THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN, WITH THE HIGHEST AXIS OF
MOISTURE STAYING JUST OFFSHORE. AS THE SYSTEM IS STARTING TO
GET IN THE NAM IT IS COMING UP A LITTLE SHORTER. THIS IS LIKELY
BECAUSE THE NAM IS RESOLVING A "DRY" SLOT SUNDAY MORNING. DRY IS
IN QUOTATIONS BECAUSE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COASTAL LOW
PUTS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE TO CONTINUE WITH A
PERIOD OF DRIZZLE. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL A BIG QUESTION
MARK WITHIN THE MIX. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS ARE SHOWING FAIRLY DEEP COLD LAYERS THAT WOULD BE MORE
INDICATIVE OF SLEET THAN FREEZING RAIN. REGARDLESS A WINTRY MIX
IS LIKELY AND HAVE TRANSITIONED THE WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT
THAT.
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD WRAP UP AS SNOW FOR EVERYBODY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
QPF, AND SNOW RATIOS ON THE HIGHER SIDE WITH COLDER AIR POURING
IN, ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING HIGH PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 3
INCHES IN THE AREAS THAT SEE SNOW THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF THE
EVENT AND, 30-50% PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN AN INCH IN
AREAS THAT MIX AND/OR START AS RAIN. ALL THIS CAN CHANGE IF
TEMPERATURE TRENDS CONTINUE COLDER OR START TO SWING BACK THE
OTHER WAY, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN ADAMANT ABOUT THE
STRONGER COASTAL LOW AND THUSLY MORE ABUNDANT COLD AIR.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION:
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT SHOULD BE GOOD FOR GUSTS
IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE. WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN ON THE HEELS
OF THE SYSTEM HIGHS MONDAY ONLY END UP IN THE MID- TO UPPER 20S
IN THE NORTH AND LOW TO MID 30S SOUTH. FACTOR IN THE WINDCHILLS
AND ITS GOING TO FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COLDER.
FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY AS A TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S., SO HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STAND TO BE
ON THE WARMER SIDE AGAIN, BUT ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH LATE WEEK BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW NORMAL. THIS
FRONT MAY ALSO HAVE SOME ACCOMPANYING SNOW, BUT EXTENT IS
UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG AT TAF TERMINALS,
ESPECIALLY KLEB WILL LEAD TO VLIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT OTHER TAF TERMINALS IN FREEZING FOG.
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
MIX OUT ANY FOG WITH CONDITIONS BRIEFLY IMPROVING TO VFR MID MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
RAIN. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY: VFR, THEN RESTRICTIONS AND MIXED PRECIP POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS.
SATURDAY NIGHT: IFR CONDITIONS IN WIDESPREAD SNOW AND WINTRY MIX
SUNDAY: IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW, WINTRY MIX, AND FREEZING DRIZZLE
SUNDAY NIGHT: CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CEILINGS LIKELY HANG ON AT HIE.
MONDAY: VFR AT MOST TERMINALS, HIE IMPROVES TO VFR AS WELL.
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TERMINALS, MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT HIE.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE EASTWARD TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REACH
25 KTS BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT SW FRIDAY EVENING AND
INCREASING TO GALE FORCE BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST AFTER THE
COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL TREND
DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH EARLY MORNING GALES,
TRENDING TO SCA, BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
BY SATURDAY EVENING.
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THE
GULF OF MAINE. THE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH
WESTERLY GALES POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND SEAS 5-8FT. GALES
EASE MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST
TUESDAY. THE WEATHER PATTERN STAYS ACTIVE SO MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH LATE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-
152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ151-153-154.
DISCUSSION...BARON/DUMONT
AVIATION...BARON/DUMONT
MARINE...BARON/DUMONT
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