252
FXUS61 KGYX 100526
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
126 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE SEASONABLE WITH THE THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
2. MOSTLY DRY TO START NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES
AND HUMIDITY BEFORE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING
MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY
OVERNIGHT, AND SO I DO NOT EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ALL THAT COOL BY
SUNRISE. HOWEVER THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE PUSHED INTO
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MORNING. ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MODEL GUIDANCE IS ONLY
GETTING 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE +14 TO +15C RANGE. AT THOSE TEMPS
IT WILL HARD TO GET SURFACE READINGS TOO MUCH ABOVE THE MID
80S, WHICH IS A BIT COOLER THAN THE NBM WHICH HAS SOME NEAR 90
HIGHS AND BRINGS THAT ALL THE WAY UP THE COAST. SO I WILL
INCLUDE SOME MOS GUIDANCE TO KNOCK THEM BACK. THEN GOING INTO
THE WEEKEND SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S TYPICAL OF
A WARM NOT HOT SUMMER PATTERN.
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT FOR
TODAY AS WELL. WITH THE FRONT PUSHING SOUTH, ALL THE FORCING FOR
STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE A LOT OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND DRY AIR AT
THE SURFACE ENOUGH TO MAKE CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOOK TOUGH.
MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SHIFTED THE
THREAT SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NBM SLIGHT CHANCE POP LOOKS
FINE TO COVER ANY LIMITED POTENTIAL, BUT I THINK IT WILL MAINLY
BE DRY. THAT WILL ALSO BE THE TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BOTH
SAT AND SUN LOOKING DRY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE WILL STICK AROUND AT
LEAST UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, HEAT LOOKS TO BE BUILDING
STARTING MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH HUMIDITY
ON THE LOWER SIDE. TUESDAY ONWARD, HOWEVER, THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY LOOK TO BUILD, WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK APPROACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE, WITH HUMIDITY LEVELS MAKING
TEMPERATURES FEEL LIKE THE UPPER 90S AS DEWPOINTS APPROACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL BE SOME OPPORTUNITIES FOR
CONVECTION TOO, ALTHOUGH DETAILS ARE LARGELY UNKNOWN AT THIS
TIME. INTERESTINGLY, SOME GLOBAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
MIDWEST.
AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH RAIN CROSSING THE AREA WITH LOCAL MVFR
OR LOWER EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS. I CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG IN AREAS THAT AREA ABLE TO CLEAR OUT, BUT CLOUD COVER
SHOULD HANG TOUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MARINE FOG AND STRATUS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP THRU
MORNING, BUT AT THIS TIME I ONLY EXPECT THAT TO MOVE INTO RKD
BEFORE DAYTIME HEATING HELPS MIX IT TODAY. THERE MAY ALSO BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS QUITE LOW AND NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY HIE AND LEB.
SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. PATCHY VALLEY FOG
MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD.
SUNDAY - MONDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON THAT MAY BRING LOCAL MVFR OR IFR RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. AREAS OF
FOG ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ON THE COASTAL WATERS, BUT
GENERALLY CLEAR OUT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS BY AFTERNOON.
THIS WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS AS A COLD FRONT NEARS THE
AREA. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE WATERS TUE OR WED,
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEGRO/BARKER
AVIATION...LEGRO
MARINE...LEGRO
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