304  
FXUS61 KGYX 201436  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
1036 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN TODAY AND WILL CLEAR THINGS OUT  
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ANCHOR ITSELF JUST OFFSHORE ALLOWING  
FOR SOME SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. THERE'S A CHANCE FOR SOME  
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT,  
WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH  
WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
1035 AM UPDATE...THIS UPDATE JUST SERVED TO MAKE TWEAKS TO THE  
NEAR TERM BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. THE INHERITED FORECAST REMAINS  
IN GOOD SHAPE AS THE LAST REMNANTS OF THIS MORNINGS LOW CLOUDS  
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DISSIPATING. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY,  
SHOULD JUST SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ROLLING OVER THE RIDGE INTO  
OUR AREA BUT NOTHING THAT SHOULD KEEP US FROM REALIZING OUR  
FORECASTED HIGHS IN THE 70S. ALONG THE COAST WILL STAY COOLER  
WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AS COOL MOIST ONSHORE FLOW  
CONTINUES.  
 
PREVIOUS UPDATE...  
645 AM...NO REAL CHANGES TO THE FORECAST,  
JUST ADJUSTED SKY/FOG TO BETTER REFLECT REALITY THIS MORNING.  
THEY STILL SHOULD ALL BURN OFF BY MIDDAY.  
 
PREVIOUSLY...SFC HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE DURING TODAY AS 500 MB  
RIDGING SHIFTS INTO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY LATER IN THE DAY. THIS  
WILL ALLOW SFC FLOW TO BECOME MORE SW AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFT TO THE  
W. THE STRATUS S AND E OF THE MTNS WILL BEGIN TO ERODE FROM  
INLAND FIRST THIS MORNING, AND EVENTUALLY DO SO AT THE COAST,  
BUT THAT MAY NOT BE UNTIL MIDDAY OR SO. ALSO, THE ONSHORE FLOW  
NEAR THE COAST WILL LIKELY NEVER SHIFT TO SSW, AS IT DOES THIS  
AFTERNOON INLAND. ULTIMATELY THIS WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY WIDE  
DIFFERENTIAL IN TEMPS BETWEEN THE COAST AND INLAND AREAS,  
ESPECIALLY THE CT VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE UPPER  
70S TODAY, WHILE INLAND AREAS S AND E OF THE MTNS SHOULD GET TO  
THE LOW TO MID 70S, AND THE COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 60S  
TODAY.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
 
 
SHOULD STAY MAINLY CLEAR AWAY FROM THE COAST THROUGH THE NIGHT ,  
AND WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE LOW  
TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH THE COAST WILL BE  
THE COOLEST, AS IT WILL NEVER GET OUT OF THE MARINE LYR, AND  
LOWS WILL FALL TO AROUND 50. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW COASTAL  
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SHOULD BE  
LIMITED TO CLOSER AND THE COAST, AND SOME MODELS ONLY BRING INTO  
THE MID-COAST OVERNIGHT.  
 
ON TUESDAY, WE LINE UP PRETTY GOOD WITH W FLOW ALOFT AND SW FLOW  
NEAR THE SFC, AND THIS WILL ADVECT SOME WARM MID LEVEL AIR INTO  
THE CWA WITH 850 MB TEMPS PUSHING 15C BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS  
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPS TO 80-85 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA  
AWAY FROM THE COAST. STILL WE ARE LIKELY TO SEE SEE THE FLOW  
SHIFT TO THE S ALONG THE COAST WHICH WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO 65-70  
ALONG THE MID COAST AND 70-75 ALONG THE N-S ORIENTED COAST S OF  
CASCO BAY. THERE IS A REMNANT MCS THAT WILL BE ACROSS S QUEBEC  
LATE IN THE DAY. 12Z MODEL RUNS TEND TO KEEP THIS OUT OF THE CWA  
UNTIL TUE EVENING, BUT MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION DEVELOP AHEAD OF  
IT THE FAR N LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
OVERVIEW... A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD BRINGS  
VERY WARM CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, PEAKING MIDWEEK.  
RESIDUAL CONVECTION RIDING AROUND THE RIDGE BRINGS A FEW CHANCES  
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SEVERAL DAYS, WITH THE GREATEST  
CHANCE ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.  
RELATIVELY COOLER AIR RETURNS BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND THE  
WEEKEND.  
 
DETAILS...  
 
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT, WITH TEMPS WARMING  
INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NH, AND 80S  
ELSEWHERE. EVEN THE SOUTHERN COASTLINES WARM INTO THE 80S WITH  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHILE THE MIDCOAST WARMS INTO THE 70S. AS  
MENTIONED, THERE'S A LITTLE LESS CERTAINTY ACROSS THE NORTH ON  
HIGH TEMPS WHERE LEFTOVER MORNING CONVECTION COULD LIMIT HOW  
HIGH TEMPS RISE. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE ALSO  
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE  
ANOTHER DETERIORATING MCS ROUNDING THE RIDGE AGAIN WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT, BUT SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT'S IT'S UNCLEAR AT THIS  
POINT HOW ROBUST THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BY THE TIME IT REACHES NEW  
ENGLAND.  
 
THURSDAY REMAINS WARM, BUT WITH A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPS  
UNDERWAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE DAYTIME, WITH  
SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS ACCOMPANYING IT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE  
HIGHER TERRAIN. THURSDAY LIKELY ENDS UP BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR  
THE MIDCOAST, WITH WINDS TURNING WESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND  
WARMING TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80. 80S ARE EXPECTED  
ELSEWHERE, WITH ONE MORE DAY IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN  
NH.  
 
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, TEMPS STILL LOOK FAIRLY WARM DOWNWIND OF  
THE MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WARM INTO THE 70S IN MOST SPOTS,  
WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. THE MOUNTAINS LIKELY SEE  
MORE CLOUD COVER AND GET DEEPER INTO THE COOLER AIRMASS,  
KEEPING HIGHS IN THE 60S.  
 
RIGHT NOW THE WEEKEND LOOKS COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN  
FROM THE NORTH, BUT THE WARMTH WON'T BE FAR OFF TO THE SOUTH.  
THE HIGH IS NOT OVERLY STRONG, AND HAS BEEN TRENDING A BIT  
WEAKER SINCE YESTERDAY. SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE, THEN THE  
WEEKEND WOULD LIKELY END UP WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S, RATHER  
THAN THE 60S. THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSER TO THAT TREND, BUT  
ACKNOWLEDGES THAT WE COULD END UP WITH A BOUNDARY OF AIRMASSES  
WITHIN THE CWA. THIS IS ONE MORE ITEM TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING  
DAYS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...WE HAVEN'T REALLY SEEN THE LIFR CIGS YET AT MOST  
TERMINALS AND EVEN IFR IS MORE HERE AND THERE AT THIS HOUR.  
THERE‚ÄôS STILL A POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIFR AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT  
OVERALL IFR LOOKS TO BE THE RULE. INLAND TERMINALS SHOULD  
IMPROVE TO VFR WITH A FEW HOURS OF SUNRISE, WHILE COASTAL  
TERMINALS AND KAUG WILL NOT BREAK UNTIL AROUND MIDDAY. OTHERWISE  
VFR EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. TONIGHT LOOKS BETTER WITH  
ANY POSSIBILITY OF COASTAL STRATUS AND/OR FOG LIMITED TO COASTAL  
TERMINALS, AND EVEN THIS MAY ONLY OCCUR AT KRKD, BASED ON SOME  
MODELS. WHATEVER DOES FORM, WILL BE QUICKER TO DISSIPATE TUE  
MORNING.  
 
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST  
TERMINALS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME COASTAL FOG IS  
POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT RKD WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS  
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS, WITH A  
LESSER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ELSEWHERE. VFR CONDITIONS  
LIKELY RETURN BY NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM...SEAS NEAR 5 FT SHOULD GRADUALLY DROP THROUGH TODAY,  
MORE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE BY THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE LIGHT  
THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT WILL PICK UP FROM THE SW ON TUESDAY,  
ALTHOUGH SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA LEVELS.  
 
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD  
THIS WEEK, BRINGING INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.  
AREAS OF DENSE MARINE FOG ARE POSSIBLE BY MIDWEEK. SOME SCA  
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY WITH INCREASING  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH  
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
UPDATE...BARON  
NEAR/SHORT TERM...CEMPA  
LONG TERM...CEMPA/CLAIR  
 
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