343
FXUS61 KGYX 291945
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
345 PM EDT WED MAR 29 2023
SYNOPSIS
ARCTIC FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT BRINGING GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS AND
SOME SQUALLS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN SHOWERS MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. COLDER AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING INTO
THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY AND THEN THROUGH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY
SATURDAY WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
FRIDAY THAT WILL BECOME ALL RAIN SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS IN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
A FAST MOVING ARCTIC FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES BRINGS A LINE OF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS IN
THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE MOST IMPACTFUL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE
A QUICK 1-3 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY TO FALL WITH THE SQUALLS IN
ONLY A COUPLE OF HOURS. THE LINE IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE
NH/VT BORDER AROUND ABOUT 9-10PM, AND QUICKLY MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
IN THE MANCHESTER AND PORTLAND AREAS AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND EXIT
THE MIDCOAST REGION BY ABOUT 4-5AM. THE LINE WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH THE MOST INTENSE PRECIP
RATES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS, AND THE LIGHTEST ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AND COASTAL AREAS.
AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY START AS SOME RAIN SHOWERS,
BUT TEMPS WILL QUICKLY FALL AS THE PRECIP RATES INCREASE AND
RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW WITHIN ABOUT AN HOUR OF BEGINNING.
COATINGS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE
SHOWERS AND SQUALLS, FURTHER REDUCING VISIBILITY IN THE HEAVY
SNOW RATES.
ANOTHER ASPECT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH
FREEZE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING
BELOW FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS WHERE
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THESE AREAS WILL
SEE ENOUGH PRECIP AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL QUICKLY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME REFREEZING WATER AND SLICK CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE,
SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE AS TEMPS FALL BACK BELOW
FREEZING, BUT WITH WARM ROADS AT THE START, LIGHTER PRECIP
AMOUNTS, AND TEMPERATURES FALLING MORE SLOWLY, MOST OF THE WATER
ON THE ROADWAYS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE IT HAS A CHANCE TO
FREEZE, LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD IMPACTS IN THESE
AREAS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE PRECIP WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNRISE TOMORROW, WITH A
COOL AND GUSTY DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES HOLD IN THE
30S MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH
TEMPS IN THE 20S ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES. WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 30
TO 35 MPH WILL ADD A LITTLE MORE CHILL TO THE AIR, DESPITE
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH WINDS
EASING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHERN VALLEYS AND AREAS OF SNOWPACK. TEMPS COOL INTO THE 20S
ACROSS COASTAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS, TEENS INLAND, AND LOW TEENS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AFTER A COOL FRIDAY MORNING, WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POISED TO TRACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND THEN NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO
START FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH WARM AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA
SATURDAY LEADING TO A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT. OVERALL RAINFALL AND
COMBINED SNOWMELT WILL CAUSE SOME RIVER RISES, WHILE FLOOD
CONCERNS ARE LOW. THE SYSTEM EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
SATURDAY NIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOLLOWED BY A WEAK SYSTEM
CROSSING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PUSH NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE REGION BY SATURDAY EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FORM OF LIGHT
SNOW MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY SATURDAY, PORTIONS
OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BECOME ENVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR. HOW
FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT PUSHES IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. A COLD
AIR DAM SCENARIO IS POSSIBLE WITH LOW LEVEL COLD AIR HOLDING
INTO LATE SATURDAY MORNING LEADING TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN SATURDAY
MORNING ALONG THE WESTERN MAINE FOOTHILLS AND POINTS
NORTHEASTWARD. EVENTUALLY ABOVE FREEZING AIR OVERSPREADS THE
ENTIRE AREA LATE SATURDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON LEADING TO
PRECIPITATION TO BE ALL RAIN. TRENDS AMONGST ENSEMBLES HAS BEEN
FOR A SLIGHT DECREASE IN QPF WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS NOW CLOSER TO
0.75 INCHES.
THERE SHOULD BE A DRY PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
AND SOME CLEARING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
CLEARING COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SURGE INTO THE LOW 60S
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH. SOME SURFACE HEATING WOULD DESTABILIZE THE
ENVIRONMENT A BIT WITH CAMS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 500J/KG OF
SURFACE CAPE WOULD DEVELOP OVER THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEMS TRAILING COLD FRONT. SATURDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A LINE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME
INSTABILITY HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. WINDS SHIFT BACK TO NORTHWEST AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, AND SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE FAIR SKIES, BREEZY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES AROUND
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE NEXT WORK WEEK STARTS OUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS ON
MONDAY, AND WARMTH BUILDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM
SKATES TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY, BRINGING MAINLY
SOME SHOWERS WITH IT. THESE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
COUNTRY. WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPEARS PRETTY SIMILAR
TO THIS WEEKEND'S AND THE COLD AIR DAM COULD PROVIDE SOME WINTER
WEATHER IN THE NORTH COUNTRY.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR A MAJORITY OF THE
NIGHT, BUT A FAST MOVING LINE OF HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
WILL BRING ABOUT TWO TO THREE HOURS OF RESTRICTIONS WITH IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM BRIEF HEAVY
SNOW SQUALLS WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN TERMINALS, WITH
SOUTHERN AND COASTAL TERMINALS SEEING LESSER IMPACTS. THE LINE
OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE THIS EVENING
THROUGH PREDAWN TOMORROW. MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS LINGER AT HIE
BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH DAYBREAK TOMORROW. VFR CONDITIONS
RETURN BY TOMORROW MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30KTS LIKELY MOST OF THE DAY. WINDS THEN EASE
TOMORROW EVENING AND VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER FRIDAY WITH A PERIOD OF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY THAT WILL CHANGE OVER
TO RAIN SATURDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES BRINGING RENEWED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
SATURDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING, AND
CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AND
BRING SCA CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
FRONT THEN CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND WESTERLY WINDS
BRING SCA CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT TOMORROW. A FEW GUSTS TO
GALE FORCE ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TOMORROW. WINDS EASE TOMORROW NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS AND BRINGS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...SCAS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSING NW OF THE WATERS. SW TO S MAY APPROACH GALE FORCE BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NW WITH SCAS LIKELY NEEDED
THROUGH SUNDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.
NEAR TERM...CLAIR
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...PALMER/SCHROETER
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