723
FXUS61 KGYX 041825
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
225 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INCREASED WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BUT NO
MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST REGARDING THE INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMER AND VERY BREEZY ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
2. WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.
3. COOLER WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SKIES ARE CURRENTLY MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF
WESTERN ME AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES THROUGH, WHICH IS
ALSO PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN TOWARD THE MIDCOAST. THIS SHOULD
QUICKLY PUSH OUT OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR WITH A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. CAN'T RULE
OUT ANOTHER SHOWER OR TWO AFTER, BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL JUST
MAINLY BE BREEZY WITH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH, OCCASIONALLY
APPROACHING 40 MPH. WINDS WILL EASE AS WE APPROACH SUNSET.
LIGHT S/SW FLOW AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY IN THE 40S. PRECIPITATION IS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, BUT THERE MAY BE A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS
APPROACHING NH TOWARD DAYBREAK.
A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, DEEP LAYER SW FLOW WILL BRING EVEN WARMER
AIR INTO NEW ENGLAND, AND WITH VERY GOOD MIXING, HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 70S FOR MOST, POSSIBLY
NEAR 80 DEGREES IN SOUTHERN NH. THE DEEP MIXING WILL ALSO BRING
DOWN STRONG WINDS FROM ALOFT, RESULTING IN A VERY BREEZY DAYS.
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH LOOK LIKELY,
AND WITH THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER 40-45 KT, SOME GUSTS 40-45
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF PORTLAND TOWARD
THE MIDCOAST, WHERE THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING IN THE MORE
STABLE MARINE LAYER, LIKELY KEEPING IT COOLER AND LESS BREEZY
THERE.
LIFT FROM WAA MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING ACROSS
NH, BUT THE MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
TIMEFRAME. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES, AND MODELS GENERALLY AGREE AROUND
500-750 J/KG MUCAPE TO WORK WITH AS LIFT INCREASING WITH THE
FRONT APPROACHING. SO AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED, AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE AROUND 40 KT,
WHICH LEADS TO THE CHANCE OF SOME STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO
SEVERE. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT THERE MAY
BE HAIL AS WELL. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NH AND FROM INTERIOR
WESTERN ME EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS,
WHERE THERE IS DENOTED BY A MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC. STRONG
STORMS ARE LESS OF A CONCERN ROUGHLY EAST OF PORTLAND TO AUGUSTA
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER SHOULD KEEP THINGS MORE STABLE.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DIMINISHES IN THE EVENING AS THE
ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES, BUT WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NH AND FROM THE
FOOTHILLS NORTHWARD IN WESTERN ME. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR PATCHY
FOG OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IF MARINE/FOG STRATUS DEVELOPS AND
MOVE ONSHORE IN WESTERN ME.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A STALLED COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM
UPSTATE NY THROUGH NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY MORNING. EMBEDDED
WAVES WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. STEADY MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR PWATS TO CLIMB AROUND 1 TO 1.25 INCHES,
WHICH WILL BE +1 TO +2 STD ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THESE PWATS COMBINED WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
FOR MODERATE BOUTS OF RAINFALL AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER. THIS
WILL BE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL EVENT WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM
0.5 TO 1 INCH SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND 1+ INCHES ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH BEFORE STEADY PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
50S NORTH TO LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH SSW
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN BEFORE THE
RAIN ARRIVES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACK ALONG A COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HELP SHIFT THE FRONT OFFSHORE THURSDAY FOR
A DRYING TREND. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO 60S
NORTH TO SOUTH WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EMBEDDED WAVES
BRINGING OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WHILE THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THESE WAVES VARY MODEL TO MODEL AND RUN TO RUN. THE
LATEST NBM MAINTAINS LOW CHANCE POPS (20-40 PERCENT) FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH VARIABLE CLOUD COVER. MORE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS ARE LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOONS WITH THE DAY TIME
HEATING CYCLE AND THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S TO
60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S NORTH TO SOUTH. ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, WINTER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT AT TIMES WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S AND CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS,
MAINLY IN THE PRESIDENTIAL MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF HIE AND AUG. WINDS GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 KT REMAIN LIKELY OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST, POSSIBLY UP TO 30
KT, BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. VFR TONIGHT, BUT LLWS IS
LIKELY BETWEEN 04Z-13Z TUESDAY.
TUESDAY MORNING WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, BUT
THESE WILL BE MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF LEB AND HIE. OTHERWISE
VFR WITH WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE SW 25-30KT. A FEW GUSTS OVER 35
KT POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK:
REST OF TUESDAY: REMAINING VERY BREEZY WITH SW GUSTS 25-30KT,
POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 35-40KT. SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY IN THE
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THESE WILL WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS
AS WELL AS STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS NH.
TUESDAY EVENING/TONIGHT: SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
WITH AN GOING CHANCE AT HIE AND LEB OVERNIGHT. CHANCES FOR MVFR
CEILINGS WILL ALSO INCREASE FOR ALL SITES. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR MARINE STRATUS/FOG THAT COULD PRODUCE IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS AT RKD AND PWM. IF THIS OCCURS, IFR CEILINGS MAY MAKE
IT TO AUG. LLWS IS AGAIN LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT: CIGS LOWER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY
WITH RAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MVFR
LIKELY WITH PERIODS OF IFR OVERNIGHT.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT: DRYING TREND THURSDAY BRINGS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS WITH VFR LIKELY.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCES FOR -SHRA COULD BRING
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS
GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 25 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS CONTINUING TO
BUILD. FOR THE BAYS, SEAS MAY REACH SCA LEVELS ON TUESDAY, BUT
WINDS LOOK MORE MARGINAL. FOR THE OUTER WATERS, WINDS GUSTS MAY
APPROACH GALE FORCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
DUE TO STABILITY, AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE GALE WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST.
PERSISTENT SSW FLOW CONTINUES WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SCAS LIKELY NEEDED AND WAVE HEIGHTS 6-10 FEET. WINDS SHIFT
OFFSHORE THURSDAY AND WILL DROP BELOW 25 KTS WHILE SEAS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 5 FEET. WINDS GENERALLY STAY BELOW 25 KTS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ180-182-184.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/SCHROETER
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