282
FXUS61 KGYX 161038
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
638 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED SOME POPS IN NORTHERN ZONES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ARRIVING EARLY. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE BULK OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO UPDATED THE AVIATION
DISCUSSION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN ONTARIO MEANDERS BACK NORTH TODAY INTO
SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.
2. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL, MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE MAINE COAST.
3. SEASONABLE SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WHILE SMOKE ALOFT FROM WILDFIRES IN ONTARIO DIPPED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA YESTERDAY, THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST WE WILL
SEE A RETURN TODAY FOR AT LEAST SOUTHERN NH AND SOUTHWEST MAINE.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER AIR EVOLUTION MAY LEAD
TO THE SMOKE PLUME DIPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA AGAIN LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, LEADING TO SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED, WE WILL SEE
SOME MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 250 TO 500 J/KG RANGE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IMPRESSIVE SO A
FEW LOW TOPPED STORMS HERE COULD BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE. STRONG WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WOULD
BE THE MAIN THREATS UNDER THE STRONGEST CORES.
MOST OF THE CAMS SUGGEST WE WILL SEE SOME ONGOING STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING
INTO NORTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WHILE
WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE TIED TO THIS BOUNDARY. MOST OF THE CAMS
WEAKEN THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE FURTHER SOUTH AND TOWARDS THE
MAINE COAST, EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING AND/OR MOVING OUT TO SEE BY
THE EVENING HOURS.
HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S
NORTH, TO THE 80S SOUTH. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.
FRIDAY SHOULD BE RATHER PLEASANT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND HIGHS RANGING FROM THE 60S AND 70S NORTH, TO THE
LOW TO MID 80S SOUTH. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S FRIDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
FROM THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE RIDGE
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE WEST, AS A
TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA TIGHTENS ITS GRIP. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE REGION FOR THE
FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
IN TERMS OF SURFACE FEATURES, A LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES LOOKS TO CROSS THROUGH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT.
THIS SUGGESTS SATURDAY WILL BE THE WETTER OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS.
WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE JUST BECOMING TO GET INTO RANGE, CAN EXTRACT A
FEW SIGNALS OF HOW THINGS MAY GO. IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER STRONG
SURFACE LOW FOR MIDSUMMER, LIKELY DROPPING TO AROUND 995 MB ON
CLOSEST PASS. AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE WARM FRONT, NEW
ENGLAND SHOULD POKE INTO A HIGHLY SHEARED, MOIST WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. THERE LOOKS TO BE AN APPARENT SEVERE THREAT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. BUT WITH A LATE ARRIVAL INTO NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE EVENING HOURS, AND MUCH TAMER LAPSE RATES THAN
TUESDAY'S SETUP, CURRENTLY FAVORING DOWNPOURS RATHER THAN STRONG-
SEVERE STORMS. RAINFALL LOOKS EFFICIENT GIVEN A MOIST AIRMASS, BUT
TOTALS SHOULD BE KEPT IN CHECK GIVEN A RATHER PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM.
CONDITIONS SHOULD CLEAR SUNDAY MORNING. POSSIBLY SOME CAA TERRAIN-
INDUCED SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN IN THE NORTH, BUT GENERALLY
LOOKS LIKE THE MORE ENJOYABLE DAY OF THE WEEKEND. A HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVERHEAD ON MONDAY BRINGING MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
SYSTEM LOOMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT ENSEMBLE
DISTRIBUTION REMAINS MASSIVE AT THIS TIME.
THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE UPSTREAM WILDFIRE SMOKE. AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM, FLOW STAYS POINTED TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND OUT AHEAD OF THE
FIRE SOURCE REGION.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
THIS MORNING, GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
TSRA WILL TRACK FROM THE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE MAINE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPO RESTRICTIONS
AT HIE, LEB, AUG AND RKD. PROB30 HAS BEEN USED IN THE AUG AND
HIE TAF, BUT CONFIDENCE IN STORMS FURTHER SOUTH IS LOWER. STORM
CHANCES DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH WINDS SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING: VFR PREVAILS.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON - SUNDAY MORNING: MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON - TUESDAY: VFR RETURNS AND PREVAILS, WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS.
NIGHTTIME VALLEY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
OFFSHORE WINDS TURN SW TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
CROSSES THIS EVENING SHIFTING WINDS BACK OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
THEN CROSSES THE WATERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS IN WESTERLY FLOW ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH FAIR CONDITIONS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ001>015.
MARINE...NONE.
UPDATE...BARON
DISCUSSION...BARKER/HARGROVE
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