086
FXUS61 KGYX 141022
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
QUICK UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
OTHERWISE, JUST LOADED IN THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED FOR TODAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS SW MAINE AND SE NH, WHILE DECREASED NEAR THE MID COAST
INTO CENTRAL MAINE. THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR A BAND OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL TO PIVOT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH INTO WESTERN MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS BAND OF RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE
POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS DURING THE
EVENING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERSPREADS THE AREA TODAY
AND LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE FLOOD RISK IS LOW DUE TO
ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES OCCURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BRING IMPACTS TO THE EVENING
COMMUTE.
2. WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND,
AND MAY BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL CHANCES
WILL BE FEW AND FEW BETWEEN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SHOWERY IN NATURE EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO TRANSFERS TO A SECONDARY LOW FORMING NEAR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND MID DAY. ALL THE WHILE AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT SPREADING STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT OVER NEW ENGLAND. LATEST AVAILABLE NWP GUIDANCE IS HONING
IN A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS OF MODERATE RAIN FORMING OVER WESTERN OR SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND PUSHING INTO NH AROUND MID DAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THIS AXIS OF
RAINFALL SOUTH AND WEST OF NH, WHICH WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
UPPER DYNAMICS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE SECONDARY LOW TRACKING NEAR CAPE COD.
THE 850 MB LOW WILL SLIDE SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SE LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 40 KTS.
THIS LLJ WILL ADVECT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BRINGING PWATS UP
OVER AN 1 INCH WHILE WARM CLOUD DEPTHS REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS
FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES. HOWEVER, STRONG DYNAMICS MAY
HELP COMPENSATE ALLOWING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN ANOTHER AXIS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING IN THE PRESENCE OF THIS LOW LEVEL JET.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL
VARIABILITY IN THE PLACEMENT AND RESIDENCE TIME OF THIS RAINFALL
AXIS. A GENERAL CONSENSUS PUTS IT BETWEEN CASCO BAY AND SE NH
EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE MOUNTAINS. IT IS THIS AREA
WHERE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR POOR DRAINAGE ISSUES
AND PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE. DUE
TO ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, 3-HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
GREATER THAN 2-3 INCHES. THE LATEST HREF MAX 3-HOUR RAINFALL
RATES COME UP SHORT OF THIS CRITERIA SUGGESTING THE RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING IS LOW. THIS AXIS OF RAIN WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE
COASTAL PLAIN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RAINFALL RATES DIMINISHING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA.
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH FROM NW TO SE FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF THE AREA.
TOTAL RAINFALL FROM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE MID COAST
INTO SOMERSET COUNTY AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE ON THE
ORDER OF 0.5 INCHES. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS
THE MAINE COAST AMOUNTS ARE GENERALLY 1-2 INCHES WITH AMOUNTS
PUSHING 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS FAR SW MAINE INTO THE NH SEACOAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH HEIGHT
RISES QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL BE
BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND, PEAKING EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON FACE VALUE, A
MUCH ANTICIPATED PATTERN CHANGE TO WARM AND DRY IS IN THE CARDS,
WITH SUNNY SKIES MOST DAYS AND ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SAT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL TRANSPORT MUCH WARMER AIR ALOFT
INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S WITH
SOME ISOLATED 70S. WSW FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY COOL ONSHORE FLOW.
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH A STRONG PUSH TO DRIVE THE COLD
FRONT ENTIRELY THRU THE FORECAST AREA. THIS KEEPS A LOW (10-30%)
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
REGION. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED DOWNPOUR/THUNDERSTORM LATE
SATURDAY, BUT THE BETTER CHANCE LIKELY ARRIVES OVERNIGHT TO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, COMBINED WITH DRY NORTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, IT COULD BE
QUITE WARM ACROSS S NH/SW MAINE, AS WESTERLY WINDS MAY ALLOW A
DOWNSLOPE WARMING BOOST. SOME WARM SPOTS MAY MAKE A RUN AT 80
DEGREES IF DEEP MIXING AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING OCCURS.
FLOW RETURNS TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AS A TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE
CENTRAL CONUS, WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AMPLIFYING FURTHER. SOME
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN HINTING AT A MORE ONSHORE (EASTERLY) COMPONENT TO
THE SURFACE WIND, SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOSELY TO SEE IF COOLER
TEMPERATURES OCCUR, PRIMARILY ACROSS MAINE. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF
ON AN ACTUAL BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SIGNAL FOR NOW, SO THINKING MORE
LIKELY 70S IN INTERIOR NH AND 60S ELSEWHERE, BUT STILL AN OUTSIDE
SHOT FOR LOCALLY COOLER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
THE REAL PUSH OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE BY TUESDAY. THERE
IS STRONG ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT IN TEMPS CLIMBING MUCH ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGHS IN 80S AND MAYBE EVEN A FEW 90S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
THE AREA. IF THAT COMES TO PASS THERE WILL BE THE TYPICAL EARLY HEAT
CONCERNS FOR SENSITIVE POPULATIONS, BUT ALSO THE HAZARD OF
RECREATION WHILE THE INLAND AND OCEAN WATERS REMAIN VERY COLD. AS
THIS ROUND OF HEAT BREAKS MIDWEEK THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND LONG RANGE MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE WEATHER
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS AS ANOTHER PERIOD TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A WINDOW OF 30-40KT LLWS
INTO EARLY THIS AM. MORE RA/SHRA TODAY, MAINLY FOCUSED SOUTH AND
WEST OF AUG/RKD. WOULD EXPECT TREND TO MVFR EARLY MORNING, WITH
IFR INTO THE DAYTIME FOR MOST TERMINALS. RA MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES TOWARDS SOUTHERN COASTAL ME AND SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WOULD EXPECT IFR VIS/CIG, WITH
LIFR POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY: BECOMING VFR FROM WEST TO EAST. NNE 5-15 KTS.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS RELAX EARLY THIS MORNING AS THEY SHIFT EASTERLY.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH INTO FRIDAY IN STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW THAT SHIFTS
NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT WITH WAVE HEIGHTS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FT
FRIDAY. SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THE WEEKEND.
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRENGTHENING SW FLOW
SATURDAY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING SCA THRESHOLDS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/SCHROETER/TUBBS
AVIATION...TUBBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page