819
FXUS61 KGYX 190130
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
930 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH TUESDAY AND
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SOUTH OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY,
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A SOUTHWEST WIND TO WARM THINGS UP A BIT.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
930PM UPDATE...
CONTINUED COOL AND QUIET TONIGHT. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOUTHWESTERN NH BEING THE
EXCEPTION. TEMPERATURES HAVE FALLEN INTO THE 20S AT MOST
LOCATIONS ON THEIR WAY DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE ZERO. WILL MAKE MINOR UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
MESONET TRENDS.
620PM UPDATE...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE NORTH WITH SOME BROKEN SKIES OVER
SOUTHERN NH THIS EVENING, PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED. EXPECT WINDS
TO DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD START DROPPING QUICKLY AS WELL AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING GETS GOING. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
PACKAGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ON ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SHORT WAVE
MAY BRING ALONG WITH IT A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. OTHERWISE, A GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
NIGHT SHOULD BE HAD IN THE NORTH, WITH SOME AREAS ACROSS
NORTHERN NH GETTING DOWN CLOSE TO ZERO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED. A SECOND WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MAY ALLOW FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS SHOULD GET TO AROUND 40 ACROSS THE
SOUTH TUESDAY WITH 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER RADIATIONAL
COOLING NIGHT SHOULD TAKE SHAPE TUESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING FOR COLD
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH DAY 10. TRY AS IT MAY PACIFIC
ENERGY HAS FAILED TO PERMANENTLY BREAK DOWN THE STUBBORN RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE CASE YET AGAIN AS
THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AT 12Z WEDNESDAY
WEAKENS AND GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION BY THE WEEKEND. THAT LEADS TO RISING HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY RECOVERING TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE WESTERN
CONUS RIDGE HAS REESTABLISHED ITSELF WITH A DOWNSTREAM TROUGH
ONCE AGAIN HERE IN THE EAST. IN THE DAILIES...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL DRAG A TRAILING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AS WELL AS SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPMENT LATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON TIMING AND TRACK OF SECONDARY
LOW...SOME ACCUMULATING WET SNOW MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PRODUCE
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BY TO OUR SOUTH FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM...
THU...MVFR IN -SHRA/-SHSN. AREAS OF IFR PSB THU NIGHT IN -SN.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT.
FRI - SAT AM...AREAS OF MVFR -SHRA/-SHSN.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
WED PM - SAT...SCA'S LIKELY...WITH GALES PSB OUTSIDE THE BAYS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
POHL
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