552
FXUS61 KGYX 070639
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
239 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
OVERALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS GRADUALLY REACH INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHWEST MAINE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
2. RETURN TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. THUNDER THREAT
INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
RAIN CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SO FAR. SOME OF THE WETTER MODEL
SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY HAVE BACKED OFF ON AMOUNTS ON THE MOST
RECENT RUNS. OVERALL THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE STRUGGLING TO
MATERIALIZE, BUT WITH A FRESH PUSH OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM
THE WEST IT IS LIKELY TO SEE A RENEWED PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SHOWERS EVOLVE INTO A STEADIER PERIOD OF
RAIN REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ALONG THE MASS
BORDER. ONCE THE RAIN ARRIVES, IT'S LIKELY TO LAST INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RAIN LIKELY TAKES UNTIL THE LATE MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS TO REACH INTO SOUTHERN MAINE, AND THEN
GRADUALLY DISSIPATES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERALL THE FORECAST WAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY DRIER AND WITH THE
RAINFALL SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH FOR TODAY. WITH MORE SUNSHINE
ACROSS THE NORTH, HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 ARE EXPECTED,
WHILE SOUTHERN AREAS IN THE RAIN AND CLOUDS REMAIN IN THE 60S.
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, A SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 50S IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SKIES CLEAR BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN
WEDNESDAY. FULL SUN SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND INTO
THE LOW TO MID-80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE RIDGING SLOWLY BREAKS
DOWN THURSDAY. IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR, THIS WOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 80S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO LOW 90S
IN THE WARM SPOTS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEW POINTS ALSO
INCREASE TO THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DURING THIS TIME, SO THE AIR
WILL DEFINITELY HAVE A STICKY MIDSUMMER FEEL.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SINCE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
DIURNALLY- DRIVEN CONVECTION BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, WITH TIMING FOCUSED FROM THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. WE MAY HAVE 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM SHEAR, WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY. HOWEVER
INSTABILITY ON THE LOWER SIDE, COMBINED WITH A LACK OF LOW-LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR DOES NOT SUPPORT A ROBUST THREAT OF
SEVERE AT THIS TIME.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, WE MAY SEE A RATHER
PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW AND CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY IN AGREEMENT
ON FALLING DEWPOINTS INTO THE "COMFORTABLE" RANGE FOR BOTH
WEEKEND DAYS.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY... CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS RAIN ARRIVES AT SOUTHERN NH
TERMINALS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MVFR CIGS, WITH SOME
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER RAINFALL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING MARINE FOG LIKELY BRINGS IFR CONDITIONS
FOR AUG/RKD/PWM INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THE FOG LIKELY LIFTS BY
LATE MORNING, WITH MVFR CEILINGS WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG THE
MAINE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. CEILINGS THEN LIFT AT ALL
TERMINALS THIS EVENING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY. VALLEY FOG IS
POSSIBLE AT LEB AND HIE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY,
WITH ONSHORE FLOW BUILDING WINDS AND WAVES TOWARDS THE NH
COAST. THIS LIKELY LEADS TO SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS, SLACKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
GENERALLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MIDWEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT OVER THE
ATLANTIC.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ154.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/CLAIR/SCHROETER
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