854
FXUS61 KGYX 130004
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
804 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO COOL RAPIDLY RESULTING IN FROST AND FREEZE
CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.
2. WIDESPREAD, SOAKING, BENEFICIAL RAIN TAKES AIM AT THE AREA
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD EASILY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING ONCE
DAYTIME HEATING WANES. UNDER APPROACHING HIGH PRESSURE, SURFACE
WINDS SHOULD ALSO SUBSIDE RATHER QUICKLY ALLOWING RAPID COOLING
AMID THE DRY AIRMASS (DAYTIME DEW POINT TEMPS HAVE LARGELY BEEN
IN THE LOW TO MID 20S AREAWIDE).
NEW FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT,
THIS TIME ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF SOUTHERN ME AND CENTRAL NH.
CLOUDS WILL BECOME A COMPLICATING FACTOR INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES. HIGH CIRRUS IS INITIALLY EXPECTED TO ENTER NH LATE THIS
EVENING, LIFTING NE ACROSS ME IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. POINTS
NEARING CENTRAL ME WILL SEE CLOUDS THE LAST, AND IT IS THESE
LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF COOLING INTO THE MID 30S.
BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING OPPORTUNITIES INTO THE FRYEBURG
REGION COULD LEAD TO TEMPS INTO THE LOWER 30S.
EXPECT TO SEE LOWER AND MORE DENSE CLOUD COVER ENTER SW NH AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND HAVE EXCLUDED THESE AREAS FROM FROST HEADLINES AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE COOL, FALLING INTO THE UPPER
30S TO AROUND 40.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE ANOTHER ROUND OF MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL TARGETING THE AREA FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. GENERALLY SPEAKING, ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL
KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. THE EVENT
WILL GET GOING WED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA.
AN AREA OF STEADY RAINFALL LIKELY MOVES INTO SOUTHWESTERN NH
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF WED AND WILL LIFT THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. WED NIGHT INTO THU MAY
FEATURE A PERIOD WHERE STEADY PRECIP ENDS, OR BECOMES MORE OF A
DRIZZLE, AS THE DRY SLOT LIFTS IN THE AREA. AS THE UPPER LOW
CAPTURES THE SURFACE LOW, IT WILL BEGIN TO PIVOT BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTH AND WEST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF, HAS
SHOWN A PRETTY MARKED SOUTHWEST TREND FOR PRECIP OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF PRECIP WILL BE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY THU IN SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH THE
HEAVIEST PRECIP LIKELY THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS IS ACTUALLY
PRETTY CONSISTENT ACROSS ALL ENSEMBLE SUITES. NBM ALREADY HAS
CATEGORICAL POP FOR THIS PERIOD, SO I DO NOT SEE ANY REASON TO
CHANGE THAT. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA IS FORECAST TO RECEIVE
BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OVER THE ROUGHLY 48 HOURS. THERE MAY BE
SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS HIGHER THAN THAT, BUT GENERALLY SPEAKING
WE ARE IN A RAINFALL DEFICIT STILL AND IT WILL OCCUR OVER LONG
ENOUGH PERIOD OF TIME THAT FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ONCE
THIS STORM MOVES AWAY WE MAY BEGIN A WARMING TREND AND MAYBE
EVEN SEE SOME ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX THIS
EVENING, GOING CALM TONIGHT WITH SKC UNTIL AROUND 06Z. CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE SW THEREAFTER AND LOWER INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS ARRIVE LATE MORNING FOR LEB AND
PROGRESS EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN. CIGS
CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: INCREASING CHANCES IFR CIGS EXPAND ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE COAST WED EVENING WITH SOME BR/FG
POSSIBLE AMID SHRA.
THURSDAY: AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY AS RAIN BECOMES MORE
WIDESPREAD/STEADY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: AREAS OF MVFR LIKELY. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY THRU THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY: IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THRU THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS NEAR THE COAST SUBSIDING.
WINDS BECOME ONSHORE WED AND WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THRU THE DAY.
THIS WILL BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5 FEET OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS, AND
EVENTUALLY GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED BY WED EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WHILE WINDS MAY DIMINISH THU AND FRI, SEAS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET INTO FRI. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
MAY ALLOW SOUTHWEST WINDS TO FRESHEN LATE SAT. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
LESS LIKELY TO FULLY MIX DOWN, BUT SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ012-033.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ013-014-
018>028.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ004.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ003-005-
006-009-010.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/LEGRO
AVIATION...SCHROETER
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