119
FXUS61 KGYX 060804
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
304 AM EST SAT DEC 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE COAST AND SOUTHERN NH TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
300 AM UPDATE... IN COORDINATION WITH WFO BOX, WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR COASTAL ROCKINGHAM, COASTAL
YORK, AND COASTAL CUMBERLAND. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BRING
WATER LEVELS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE LATE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
IN ADDITION, RADAR IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME LIGHT RETURNS
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH WITH ASOS/AWOS AND WEBCAMS SHOWING SOME LIGHT
SNOW. GIVEN THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES, THIS WILL EASILY STICK
TO UNTREATED SURFACES AND MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY SLICK SPOTS.
PREVIOUSLY...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG/NEAR THE MAINE COAST
TODAY. THERE'S NOT MUCH TO THIS SYSTEM, AS ALL FORCING
MECHANISMS ARE WEAK AND THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS PROGGED TO
HAVE SEVERAL DRY LAYERS IN IT. EVEN STILL, A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NH.
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS WELL, BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ON THAT. SEVERAL MODELS KEEP WHATEVER FORCING FOR ASCENT THERE
IS OFFSHORE SO IT'S POSSIBLE THAT MOST AREAS WON'T SEE ANY
PRECIP AT ALL. OTHERWISE IT'LL JUST BE CLOUDY WITH LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/
SKIES WILL TEND TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING BUT GRADUALLY
INCREASE AGAIN AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
SUNDAY WITH LITTLE FANFARE AS THE AIR MASS PRECEDING THE FRONT
WILL BE QUITE DRY. STILL, A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS.
CLOUDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY WITH HIGHS NEAR FREEZING ON THE COASTAL
PLAIN AND THE MERRIMACK VALLEY TO THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
EVENING UPDATE...JUST A QUICK UPDATE TONIGHT AS THE INCLUSION OF
THE LATEST NBM TO THE FORECAST HASN'T YIELDED ANY SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES. FOR SUNDAY, ENSEMBLES HAVE BACKED OFF ON ANY
PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN 3 INCHES WITH THE LATEST RUNS,
WITH PROBABLILITES OF GREATER THAN 1 INCH IN THE 40-60% RANGE
ACROSS MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE SIGNAL
IS STILL THERE FOR A POTENTIAL NORLUN TROUGH TYPE FEATURE WHICH
MAY PUSH TOTALS ON THE COASTAL PLAIN TOWARD THE HIGHER END OF
THE 1-2 INCH RANGE DEPENDING ON HOW, AND IF, IT EVOLVES.
THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE WITH
SEVERAL SMALL CLIPPER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH, WITH EYES STILL ON
A POTENTIALLY LARGER SYSTEM FOR MID-WEEK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGES:
* QUICK MOVING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN FURTHER IN THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY MAKE THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE SLICK
FOR A PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DETAILS:
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE GREAT LAKES
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GUIDANCE AGREES THAT STRENGTHENING
TAKES PLACE AS IT QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAY,
BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE DIFFERING FEATURES AHEAD OF THE LOW AS
WELL AS HOW NORTH/SOUTH THE LOW'S CENTER IS AS IT PUSHES ACROSS
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE FIRST FEATURE TO WATCH IS THE POSSIBLE FORMATION OF A
NORLUN-ESQUE TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN ME COAST LATE
SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE SPURRED ON BY THE FORMATION OF
LOCAL LOW PRES OFF THE NH SEACOAST BEFORE SWINGING NORTH AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE LOCALIZED INVERTED TROUGH BASED ON WIND
CONVERGENCE WOULD FOCUS A BAND OF PRECIP PERPENDICULAR TO THE
COAST, GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST OVERNIGHT. THESE
CAN SOMETIMES LEAD TO LOCALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION TOTALS.
THIS FEATURE, TYPICALLY BETTER REPRESENTED BEST IN NEAR TERM
GUIDANCE, SHOULD PROVE MORE OR LESS CONFIDENCE IN THE COMING
FORECAST CYCLES. UNTIL THEN, THERE ARE SOME DETERMINISTIC RUNS
SUPPORTING THE FEATURE SUCH AS THE NAM, CANADIAN, AND GFS.
SECOND TO THIS, WILL BE HOW PROGRESSIVE THE BAND IS. MAIN LOW,
QUICKLY MOVING EAST, WOULD TAKE OVER IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
MONDAY. THIS WOULD DISRUPT THE CHANNEL OF WIND CONVERGENCE,
ASSIMILATING IT INTO IT'S OWN FRONTOGENESIS BANDING.
DID DELAY PRECIPITATION EXIT PER SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. SHOULD THE QUICK MOVING SYSTEM BE EFFICIENT, A
FRESH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW MAY BE PRESENT FOR THE MONDAY
MORNING COMMUTE. LOCALLY HIGHER CAN'T BE RULED OUT SHOULD THE
AFOREMENTIONED INVERTED TROUGH LINGER. OF GREATER CONFIDENCE IS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION, WITH GREATEST QPF FOCUSED ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NH AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ME.
THE EXITING SYSTEM MONDAY BRINGS ANOTHER PUNCH OF COLD AIR ON
NW FLOW AS DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY GET TO THE TEENS AND 20S. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY DURING THE DAY, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES HOVERING
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE (ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR) AND
BELOW ZERO (ACROSS THE NW MOUNTAINS AND US/CAN BORDER). THE DRY
AIRMASS WILL SEE MONDAY NIGHT TEMPS MIRROR LAST NIGHT'S LOWS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO.
THE WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE SHORT LIVED AS SW
FLOW INCREASES BEHIND EXITING HIGH PRESSURE. THIS OPENS THE DOOR
TO ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ARRIVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
MIDWEEK INTO LATE WEEK. THE SECOND SYSTEM FEATURES A STRONGER
LOW COUPLED WITH A MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LLJ ALONG
THE EAST COAST. IT REPRESENTS ANOTHER LIKELY CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA, BUT WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR WARMER
AIR TO BRING MIXED PRECIP TYPES TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NH NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH COASTAL
ME. THIS MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EXCEPT
FOR PERHAPS A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN THE NORTHERN NH MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM...CEILINGS LOWER DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD SUNDAY.
LIGHT SN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH SOME VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AS WELL AS EXPECTED MVFR CEILINGS. THESE MAY LINGER
TOWARDS COASTAL TERMINALS INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT TREND VFR
SHORTLY AFTER NOON LOCAL. MONDAY FEATURES BRISK NW WINDS, WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS MOST AREA TERMINALS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A FEW 25 KT GUSTS
OFF THE MIDCOAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A COLD
FRONT, CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS.
LONG TERM...AN SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS MONDAY,
WITH A FEW GUSTS TO GALE POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON ON THE
OUTER WATERS. COLD AIR TEMPS TUESDAY MORNING MAY RESULT IN LIGHT
SEA SMOKE. A LULL IN WIND TUESDAY WILL BE MET WITH INCREASING
SW FLOW OVERNIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A ACTIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/TUBBS
SHORT TERM...EKSTER/HARGROVE
LONG TERM...BARON
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