425
FXUS61 KGYX 150625
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
225 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. IT WILL BE THE COLDEST MORNING SINCE LAST SPRING WITH FROST
ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
2. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE THIS WEEK, BUT OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE GENERALLY DRY WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE BREEZE DELAYING THE DROP IN TEMPS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU SUNRISE AND TEMPS
SHOULD TUMBLE INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WILL BE THE NORTH COUNTRY VALLEYS WHERE WIDESPREAD 30S
ARE ANTICIPATED. A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU
MORNING. ELSEWHERE IT WOULD NOT SURPRISE ME TO SEE A BRIEF UPPER
30S READING IN THE TYPICALLY COOL LOCATIONS LIKE SFM. WITH A
COOL START AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT, THAT WILL ALSO MAKE
IT DIFFICULT TO GET TOO WARM THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE FULL
SUNSHINE IT MAY BE HARD TO ESCAPE THE 60S TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A FAST JET TO OUR
NORTH WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS TO OUR SOUTH. THAT WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO PREVENT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMTH FROM ENTERING THE REGION, BUT WILL ALSO
LEAD TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THE VERY LEAST DRAPED NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS IS WHAT GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEY ON FOR THE
NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT IN THE
VICINITY WED AND THEN AN AREA OF RAIN MAY TRACK ALONG THAT INTO
OUR BACKYARD FOR THU. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF STRONG
FORCING ALONG THE BOUNDARY, I AM OKAY WITH THE NBM POP AROUND
50 PERCENT FOR THE LOCAL AREA.
THE STRONGER SIGNAL IS WITH THE NEXT WAVE THAT APPROACHES OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE FROM THE LATE WEEK THRU THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES SO
AND WEAKENS, AN OPENING UPPER LOW WILL EJECT FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND HEAD OUR WAY. DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT IS OUTSIDE OF
OUR QPF WINDOW, THERE IS A PLENTY OF ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR
RAINFALL. NBM IS ALREADY COMING IN WITH HIGH LIKELY POP AND THAT
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE EVENT IS OCCURRING AT THE TAIL END OF
THE FORECAST RANGE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY FOG THRU SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN VALLEYS. WITH PLENTY OF SUN, FOG WILL LIFT OUT
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS OF SUNRISE. WIDESPREAD VFR PREVAILS TODAY.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO DISRUPT OR DELAY VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT, BUT IT IS PRIME FOG SEASON SO IT MAY BE
MORE LIKELY THAN NOT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A
STRONGER FRONTAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND,
AND THIS WILL BE THE WINDOW FOR SOME AREAS OF SCA CONDITIONS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MEZ007.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NHZ001-002.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEGRO
AVIATION...LEGRO
MARINE...LEGRO
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