713
FXUS61 KGYX 171722
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1222 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. WINDS RAMP UP
THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONT, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH OR MORE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM. THIS MEANS THAT ALMOST ENTIRELY RAIN
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ENOUGH RAIN AND SNOWMELT TO CAUSE ANY
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS. THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 20S BY MORNING.
A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, WITH COLDER AIR
RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS THEN POSSIBLE BY
LATE TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SCATTERED
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT
DIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS SOUTHERLY WARM AIR DISSOLVES THE
COLDER AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS, A WARMER AND MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS EXPECTED, WITH
HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-30S TO LOWER 40S. TONIGHT, SKIES LOOK
TO CLEAR QUICKLY. RELATIVELY CALM WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
WEAK RADIATIONAL COOLING AND CHILLIER LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
WE'RE LOOKING AT TEENS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER 20S CLOSER
TO THE COAST FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE EROSION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A
MARKED INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND MID- 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE OF THIS
WARM AIR ADVECTION IS A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE POSITIONED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THURSDAY NIGHT, THE LOW MOVES
NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED MILD TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY FRIDAY MORNING. UPON THE ARRIVAL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST. A FEW 40-50MPH WINDS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO
WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 50F ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BY FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OVERVIEW...
A STRONG FRONT MOVES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY. SEASONABLE
AIR RETURNS FOR SATURDAY, AND THEN A WEAK CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH
ON SUNDAY. COLDER AIR RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ANOTHER
CLIPPER INCREASINGLY LIKELY BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DETAILS...
THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON FRIDAY'S SYSTEM. A STRONG LOW TRACKS
NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND, DRAGGING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. RAIN AND WIND ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. OVERALL THE SYSTEM
LOOKS SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED ON THE MODEL TRENDS, LENDING
HIGHER CONFIDENCE TOWARD STRONG WINDS ALONG AT LEAST THE
MIDCOAST.
FOCUSING ON THE WIND, A SOUTHERLY 850MB LLJ TO 90KT LENDS HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO WIND GUSTS OF AROUND 45-55 MPH ALONG THE COAST,
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE MIDCOAST. WE'LL
HOLD WITH THE WATCH FOR NOW TO SEE IF STRONGER GUSTS ARE MORE
LIKELY WITH THE SYSTEM STILL ABOUT 48 HOURS AWAY FROM PEAKING.
WITH SST NOW COLDER THAN THE AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM,
A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS LIKELY TO KEEP THE STRONGEST WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE ALONG THE COAST. SNOWPACK INLAND ALSO ASSISTS
IN KEEPING THE INVERSION INLAND, BUT WITH THE LOSS OF SNOWPACK
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN THERE DOES REMAIN THE THREAT THAT THE
STRONGEST WINDS ACTUALLY END UP OCCURING INLAND THROUGH THE
KENNEBEC VALLEY FROM AUGUSTA TO BANGOR AS HISTORY SUGGESTS
BETTER MIXING IS POSSIBLE HERE THAN OVER THE WATER. IF
CONFIDENCE GROWS IN THE LOSS OF THE INVERSION, THEN THERE WILL
BE ROOM TO EXPAND HEADLINES INLAND THROUGH THESE AREAS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED SLIGHTLY, WITH GENERALLY
0.75-1.25IN EXPECTED. SOUTHEAST FACING SLOPES STAND TO SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH 1.5-2.0IN OF RAIN MORE COMMON. THIS
IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO ICE MOVEMENT ON SMALLER RIVERS AND STREAMS,
BUT OTHERWISE FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS TIME.
THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BY FRIDAY EVENING, WITH GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS COOL BACK
INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR SATURDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKS NEAR
THE CANADIAN BORDER ON SUNDAY, BRINGING A WARM UP INTO THE 40S
ALONG THE COAST. A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND HIGHS IN THE 30S IS
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH.
COLD AIR RETURNS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE TEENS AND 20S. ANOTHER CLIPPER IS THEN INCREASINGLY LIKELY
FOR LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR A MORE
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL. THIS SYSTEM WOULD ALSO BE THE BEST
CHANCE TO BRING A WHITE CHRISTMAS. BUT WITH IT STILL BEING
NEARLY A WEEK AWAY, WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IT OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT HIE THIS EVENING DUE TO SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. LOWER CIGS AND LOWER RESTRICTIONS ARRIVE THURSDAY
EVENING AS A MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. LOW-
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO LIKELY THURSDAY NIGHT, AS A STRONG
SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. RESTRICTIONS
STAY DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN, LOW CLOUDS, AND
FOG ARE LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS ON FRIDAY. SOUTH WIND GUSTS OF
30-40KT ARE ALSO LIKELY AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND AT HIE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FRIDAY NIGHT BACK TO VFR, EXCEPT AT HIE AND
LEB WHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE MORE LIKELY IN UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS AS A LIGHT PERIOD OF SNOW IS
POSSIBLE. VFR RETURNS FOR MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM POSSIBLY
BRINGING RESTRICTIONS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...GALE FORCE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND 5-8FT SEAS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS
LOWER TO BELOW SCA-LEVELS BY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY THURSDAY, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS
STRENGTHEN CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL REACH AT LEAST GALE FORCE
THRESHOLDS BY FRIDAY MORNING, AND SEAS WILL RISE TO 6-10FT BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...SOUTHERLY GALES ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS MOST
OF THE WATERS ON FRIDAY, WITH STORM FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN WATERS. WESTERLY GALES ARE THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SOUTHWESTERLY SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS A CLIPPER TRACKS NORTH OF THE WATERS, AND THEN
NORTHWESTERLY GALES ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MEZ026>028.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>152-154.
STORM WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ150-151.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR ANZ152>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ153.
NEAR TERM...PALMER
SHORT TERM...PALMER
LONG TERM...CLAIR
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