566
FXUS61 KGYX 241828
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
228 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT
DANGEROUS MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS DEVELOP AND PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY. IN ADDITION, SPLASH-OVER
IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH WATER LEVELS APPROACHING MINOR
FLOOD STAGE AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
2. STRONG NOR'EASTER WILL ALSO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
3. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK,
BUT CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED AT TIMES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE DOES BEGIN
TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOR'EASTER
APPROACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH, BUT THIS LOOKS TO
BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...SO CURRENTLY NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THE HIGH CLOUDS MAY KEEP
LOWS TONIGHT A LITTLE MILDER THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE, BUT TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND INTERIOR COULD STILL GET INTO THE LOW-MID 30S
TO ALLOW SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT. VALLEY FOG IS ALSO AGAIN LIKELY
ACROSS NORTHERN VALLEYS AND THE CT RIVER. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PICK
UP FRIDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH AND MAYBE 25-35 MPH CLOSER TO
THE SEACOAST.
FRIDAY WILL ALSO SEE DETERIORATING MARINE AND SURF CONDITIONS THAT
WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS AND ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM ARRIVING
SWELLS AND A LONG AND CONTINUOUS FETCH OF NORTHEAST WINDS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE COAST AND A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS, AND THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS UNCHANGED.
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL ALSO BE ON THE UPWARD TREND THIS
WEEKEND, AND INCREASING SURGE TO AROUND 2' COULD PUSH WATERS LEVELS
CLOSE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER,
SOMETIMES SURGE GUIDANCE CAN BE UNDERDONE IN LONG AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW. SO FUTURE FORECASTS COULD BE ADJUSTED UPWARD,
AND THAT WOULD PROBABLY REQUIRE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
REGARDING RAINFALL...AS THE LOW MOVES UP THE COAST, IT WILL BE
FIGHTING DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. THUS, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE
FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN AND FOR PRECIPITATION TO START
FALLING. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD
DELAY RAIN ONSET TO MAINLY SATURDAY WHILE THE GFS AND CANADIAN
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS WOULD SUGGEST RAIN STARTING ACROSS OUR SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT. IF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS STRONG, THE ECMWF SOLUTION
COULD STILL BE ON THE TABLE EVEN IF IT IS AN OUTLIER WHICH MAY KEEP
SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL BANDS SOUTH. FURTHER COMPLICATING THE
RAINFALL FACTOR IS THAT THERE COULD BE A CONVECTIVE ELEMENT WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME INSTABILITY AT
TIMES WITH EMBEDDED DOWNPOURS. ALL THAT SAID, THE RAINFALL FORECAST
REMAINS ONE OF THE MORE UNCERTAIN FACTORS REGARDING THE NOR'EASTER
AS IT REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK. THE BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL/INTERIOR
MAINE WHERE THE NBM SUGGESTS A 50 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
AN INCH OF RAIN AND 30 TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AT LEAST TWO INCHES
(48-HOUR TOTALS). OVER THESE LOCATIONS, A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES
SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE FORECAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO
4 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE ONE CAVEAT IS THAT WE COULD SEE LOWER TOTALS
WITH A SOUTHERN TREND.
REGARDING THE WINDS...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SETUP WITH
ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND ANOMALOUS LOW PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTH WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT WE WILL SEE WINDS IN THE 35 TO 45 KNOT RANGE
AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER, POTENTIALLY STARTING LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THUS, WE COULD END UP
SEEING SOME WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AT TIMES ALONG
THE COAST AND INTO THE INTERIOR DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
THE UPPER LOW WILL STALL AND BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION,
KEEPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT WE COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS NORTH NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. WE WILL NEED TO WATCH
TRENDS AS MODELS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE WITH RESOLVING THIS LOW
PREDICTABILITY PATTERN.
A PROGRESSIVE RIDGE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME MIDWEEK
FOLLOWED BY A QUICK MOVING WAVE/FRONTAL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES MAY
ALSO TREND WARMER BY MID WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 70S
RETURNING TO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR, EXCEPT IFR OR LOWER VALLEY FOG IS
LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT AT LEB AND HIE. NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY GUSTING TO 20-25 KT ALONG THE COAST AND 15-20 KT
INLAND.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: WIDESPREAD MVFR LIKELY, AREAS OF IFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IN RAIN. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY SEE
NORTHEAST SURFACE GUSTS OF 30 KT OR MORE.
MONDAY: AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY
AS RAIN ENDS. NORTH NORTHEAST SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TONIGHT BUT ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE NOR'EASTER APPROACHES
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM THE SOUTH. GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS AS NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE AND SEAS CONTINUE TO BUILD. IN THE BAYS, WINDS GUSTS
ARE MAINLY SCA CRITERIA, BUT GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
GALE CONDITIONS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY, BUT GRADUALLY IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY
TO THE EAST. A FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AROUND NEXT
THURSDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
MEZ023>027.
NH...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-
152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ151-153.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR ANZ153.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ154.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ180-
182-184.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/HARGROVE
AVIATION...COMBS/HARGROVE
MARINE...COMBS
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