390  
FXUS61 KGYX 261212  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
712 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2021  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TO THE EAST TODAY WHILE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS  
OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. WHILE THE BULK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK  
TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND, AN AREA OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO  
SPREAD INTO MUCH OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE GREATEST  
ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. SNOW WILL  
TAPER OFF ON WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY  
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY.  
ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND INTO NEW ENGLAND  
AT THE END OF THE WEEK. EXPECT COLDER CONDITIONS FOR THE  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /TODAY/
 
 
715AM UPDATE...  
SOME LOW CLOUDS HAVE BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS AND I HAVE  
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS. EXPECT THESE TO TAKE A FEW  
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. ELSEWHERE IT'S FAIRLY CLEAR EARLY THIS  
MORNING AND I'VE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO PULL IN THE LATEST  
EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS.  
 
ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...  
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST TODAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS  
SPILLING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH.  
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S FOR MOST.  
BY THE AFTERNOON THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT SNOW ARRIVING IN  
SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND AN AREA  
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE  
TONIGHT. WHILE THE ENERGY WITH THIS LOW TRANSFERS TO A NEW LOW  
FORMING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND, THERE WILL  
STILL BE AN AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY IMPACTING  
SOUTHWESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS  
BEEN ISSUED. FORCING WEAKENS AS IT ARRIVES AND SPREADS INTO THE  
REST OF OUR FORECAST AREA, SO EXPECT LIGHTER AMOUNTS FURTHER TO  
THE EAST.  
 
WHILE THE OFFSHORE LOW TAKES OVER FULLY ON WEDNESDAY, A  
LINGERING TROUGH REMAINS AND COULD LEAD TO A BAND OR TWO OF  
CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL WITHIN A GENERAL EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW.  
WHILE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR A CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL  
FOR JUST ABOUT THE WHOLE FORECAST AREA, IT IS LIKELY THAT A  
COUPLE OF BANDS OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FORM AND DROP ANOTHER  
INCH OR TWO WHERE THEY OCCUR. UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT LOCATIONS WILL  
BE IMPACTED BY THIS IS STILL RATHER HIGH AND IT IS REFLECTED IN  
THE CHANCE POP AND GENERALIZED LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNT FORECASTED  
ON WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALL BUT A FEW ISOLATED SNOW FLURRIES WILL  
HAVE COME TO AN END. IT WILL BE A SHORT BREAK HOWEVER AS ANOTHER  
LOW PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF US WITH ARCTIC AIR PULLING IN  
BEHIND IT FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 
AS THAT LOW DEPARTS ON THURSDAY NIGHT SOME GUIDANCE HINTS AT A BRIEF  
WINDOW FOR AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM IT TO PUSH INTO EASTERN  
MAINE. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
COLD AIR ALOFT REALLY BEGINS TO ACCELERATE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY  
MORNING WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND -25C ON THE VERMONT  
BORDER. WHILE THIS AIRMASS WILL QUICKLY MODERATE IT STILL LEAVES  
DAYTIME HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO TEENS SOUTH.  
FURTHERMORE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE  
REGION KEEPING A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND IN PLACE  
THROUGH THE DAY. THE RESULT WILL BE WINDCHILL VALUES IN THE  
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTH TO NEAR ZERO NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAYTIME.  
 
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE, ALLOWING WIND CHILLS TO  
DROP TO NEAR 20 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH, AND THIS TIME PERIOD WILL  
NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WIND CHILL ADVISORY. THE SAME  
WINDS WILL KEEP THINGS WELL MIXED WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST  
SLIGHTLY ABOVE ZERO OVERNIGHT.  
 
SATURDAY THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW  
20S SOUTH TO TEENS NORTH. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT  
WILL FINALLY START TO DECREASE ALLOWING WINDS TO CALM AND VALLEYS TO  
DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE DROPPED TEMPS A FEW  
DEGREES BELOW THE MEX GUIDANCE FOR THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS INCLUDING  
IZG BML AND SFM. EXPECT LOWS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION TO BOTTOM OUT  
NEAR 10 BELOW.  
 
BEYOND THE WEEKEND TEMPERATURES AGAIN MODERATE WITH THE POTENTIAL  
FOR SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY BUT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND  
LOWERING CLOUD BASES. BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MVFR TO IFR  
CEILINGS MAY ARRIVE IN SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE ALONG WITH SOME  
SNOWFALL. THE SNOW OVERSPREADS MOST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH  
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. FOR WEDNESDAY CONDITIONS WILL  
BE MORE VARIABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW BANDS OF SNOWFALL  
TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY.  
 
LONG TERM... MOSTLY VFR FOR THE EXTENDED. ON THURSDAY SOME SNOW  
SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR ALONG THE EASTERN PORTION OF  
THE REGION. COLD NWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM...LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE  
PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH TODAY. ALTHOUGH LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO  
OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS LIGHT OVER  
THE WATERS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS.  
 
LONG TERM...COLD NWLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS TO END THE WEEK.  
BY THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECT LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY TO DEVELOP AND REMAIN  
THROUGH SUNDAY AS COLD NWLY FLOW PERSISTS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO  
INCREASE LATE THURSDAY WITH GALES EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON EST  
WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ007-011-012-015.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...KIMBLE  
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE  
LONG TERM...CURTIS  
 
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