556
FXUS61 KGYX 151839
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
239 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TREND IN RAINFALL TOTALS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH
ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT TONIGHT.
2. RAIN ACCOMPANIES A PASSING SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING COULD RESULT IN NUISANCE FLOODING OR
PONDING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE.
3. ZONAL MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOULD STAY DRY, BUT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVERHEAD TONIGHT, WITH CALM WINDS
EXPECTED. DRY AIR THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL ALSO PROMOTE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT SKY, LEADING TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS COULD DIP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FRIDAY NIGHT
AMID THESE CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD AGAIN BRING 40S TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN VALLEYS, WITH LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND COAST.
SUNDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE EXITING EAST WITH RETURN FLOW IMPROVING
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING
IN FROM THE WEST. A MID DECK OF CLOUDS WILL THEN INCREASE SW TO
NE IN THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM BRINGING
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES ALONG THE US/CAN BORDER TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE TRIPLE POINT
ALONG A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO AN AREA OF SOUTHERN
MOISTURE, CREATING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND MORE STRATIFORM RAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SOME SHOWERS WILL BEGIN THROUGH THE EVENING FOR WESTERN NH, BUT
SHOWERS AREAWIDE SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AT LEAST SUNSET.
THE GREATEST RAINFALL RATES LOOK TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEST
TO EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY/MID MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS
WHERE ABOVE NORMAL PWATS, A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, AND FORCING
COINCIDE TO CREATE A PERIOD OF ENHANCED RAINFALL. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES SEEM TO BE IN MORE AGREEMENT THIS MORNING, BUT HAVE
SHIFTED THE QPF MAX A BIT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN ME. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
THAT SEE AN INCH OF RAIN BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY, BUT THE LACK OF
GREATER INSTABILITY WILL ISOLATE THESE TO AREAS THAT SEE
RAINFALL OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT.
REMAINING MOISTURE LINGERS WITHOUT MUCH FLOW BEHIND THE
DISTURBANCE, AND THIS COULD LEAD TO AN EXPANSIVE REGION OF
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
REGARDLESS, LOW CLOUDS LIKELY LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS OF AROUND 1 TO
1.5 INCH IS FORECAST, WITH A GENERAL 0.5 TO 0.75 INCH ELSEWHERE.
A GOOD SOAKING RAIN EVENT, IF THE FORECAST COVERAGE COMES TO
FRUITION. ONE POTENTIAL FAILURE MODE IS CONVECTION FROM A WAVE
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC LIMITING HOW MUCH DEEPER MOISTURE MAKES
IT TO NEW ENGLAND. REGARDLESS, RAIN WILL STILL BE LIKELY GIVEN
THE LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AND INCOMING FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL PATTERN LOOKS TO SETUP OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS
NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL MOVE EASTWARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COLD FRONT AS IT
CROSSES A REGION OF UPPER- LEVEL DIVERGENCE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND COULD ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT.
WEDNESDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID-80S FORECAST. DESPITE THE PASSAGE
OF THIS COLD FRONT, LOW PRESSURE AND SOME INSTABILITY COULD
LEAD TO MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD ALSO FEATURE COOLER
TEMPERATURES, WITH UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S IN THE FORECAST.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH NW WINDS. A
WEAK SEABREEZE WILL APPROACH PSM/PWM/IWI, BUT MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME CALM OVERNIGHT. AGAIN
EXPECT DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CT RIVER, RESULTING IN
LIFR CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR LEB/HIE. THIS SHOULD LIFT
AROUND 12/13Z SUNDAY WITH VFR CONTINUING AND MORE SOUTHERLY WIND.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY NIGHT: CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER INTO THE EVENING WITH
SHRA THEN RA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MVFR AND IFR CIGS, WITH
PERIODS OF IFR VIS WHEN RAIN IS HEAVIER.
MONDAY: MVFR TO IFR DUE TO RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
MONDAY NIGHT: CONDITIONS IMPROVE AS A LOW EXITS THE REGION, MVFR
REMAINS NW OF THE MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
THURSDAY: MVFR DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERNIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT NORTH
WINDS. WINDS THEN BECOME MORE ONSHORE AND SOUTHERLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA-MAGNITUDE WINDS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY MONDAY. SEAS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME, WITH SEAS OF 2-4FT EXPECTED. SOME
5FT WAVES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE OPEN WATERS OVER 25 MILES
OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS ARE BOUND TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/PALMER
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