653
FXUS61 KGYX 050034
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
734 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATE TO REFLECT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN T/TDS THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AND TO UPDATE THE AVIATION SECTION
BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, BRINGING WINTRY
WEATHER TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
2. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
3. MILD CONDITIONS AND RAIN SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO SOME SNOW MELT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A LOW WILL MOVE EASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BRING WARM AIR
ALOFT WITH IT, CREATING THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH,
PREVENTING WARM AIR ALOFT TO ADVECT INTO MOST OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW AND SLEET FOR MOST,
BUT SOME FREEZING RAIN CAN NOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR CHESHIRE AND
HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES FOR THE POTENTIAL TO SEE A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE.
MOST ICE IS EXPECTED TO ACCRETE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH TRAVEL
IMPACTS POSSIBLE ON SECONDARY ROADS ONLY.
FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF CONCORD OR EAST OF I-93, THE BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL REALLY HELP MINIMIZE THE PENETRATION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM AIR ALOFT. PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA SHOULD
STAY SNOW OR SLEET. HOWEVER, THE WARM AIR ALOFT WILL STILL ALLOW FOR
VERY LOW SNOW RATIOS-MAKING THE SNOW HEAVY, WET AND DIFFICULT FOR
THE SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. GENERALLY ABOUT 0.5-2 INCHES OF WET AND
GLOPPY SNOW IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
COLD AIR DAMMING IS FORECAST TO LARGELY HOLD OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THRU SAT. HOWEVER THERE IS A LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT AT THE SAME TIME BEYOND FRI MORNING. THE MAIN DRIVER WILL
BE WEAK UPGLIDE DUE TO WARM ADVECTION. THIS IS MORE OF A
DRIZZLE SITUATION THAN A STEADY PRECIP, THOUGH SOME SHOWERS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SO THE MAIN CONCERN WOULD BE FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN UNTIL TEMPS CAN APPROACH FREEZING SAT. THIS THREAT
IS PRETTY CLEARLY SEPARATE FROM THE WAVE PASSING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THU INTO FRI, SO THE PLAN RIGHT NOW IS TO TREAT
THE STORM TOTAL GRIDS AS SEPARATE AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THRU THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME ANY PRECIP IS ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN
SHOWERY AND MOSTLY LIGHT. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A GRADUAL
RIPENING AND MELT OF SNOW PACK, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MTNS. IF
THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS THAT WILL MEAN A GENERAL 1 TO 2,
MAYBE AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH, OF SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT MELTING OUT BY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD BE MORE
ACCELERATED IF TEMPS AND ESPECIALLY DEWPOINTS REMAIN WARM
OVERNIGHT, AND IF MORE RAIN FALLS. WITH THIS FORECAST THERE IS
NO ANTICIPATION OF FLOODING. STREAMFLOWS REMAIN LOW FROM THE
BEGINNING OF WINTER, AND ANY ICE JAM FORMATION AS ICE BREAKS UP
IS NO GUARANTEE OF FLOODING GIVEN THE LOW WATER LEVELS. IN THE
ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, THE SPRING FLOOD RISK REMAINS
LOWER THAN NORMAL.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
FROM 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER
SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASING ENE WINDS. MVFR WILL DEVELOP AT KLEB, KMHT, KCON, AND
KPSM BY LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY EVENING,
SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA
AND WILL LEAD TO IFR AT KMHT, KCON, AND KPSM. NORTH AND EAST OF
THESE SITES WILL SEE MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN ANY SNOW, MAINLY
AT KPWM. LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BRING IFR TO MVFR FOR ALL
SITES THURSDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY: AREAS OF IFR IMPROVING TO MVFR LATE THE DAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT: AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUD
COVER. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY: AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUD COVER.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY NIGHT: AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH PRECIP
CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IMPROVING TO VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PICK UP, AND SCA
CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT STARTING SAT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TEND NOT TO MIX AS WELL OVER THE COLD WATERS,
BUT SOME WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE. MORE LIKELY THE
SUSTAINED SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WILL HELP BUILD SEAS ABOVE 5 FT
OUTSIDE THE BAYS AND THAT THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE SCA LEVELS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
FOR NHZ011-012-015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...LEGRO/PALMER/SCHROETER
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