912
FXUS61 KGYX 201702
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1202 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY
ALLOWING FOR INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. IT WILL HOWEVER
BE WINDY AND COLD. WINDS WILL DECREASE TONIGHT BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL MAKE IT DOWN BELOW ZERO IN MANY AREAS. COLD AND DRY
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. NO LARGE STORMS FORESEEN AT THIS
TIME INTO THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
NOON...A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO ADJUST FORECAST TO CURRENT OBS,
MAINLY TEMPS RUNNING A BIT ABOVE NORMAL, SO MAXES WERE
INCREASED BY A DEGREE OR SO IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AS WELL.
940 AM...MOSTLY JUST CLEANED UP THE FORECAST TO GET RID OF ANY
POP MENTION FOR TODAY, AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS WHICH IS
CLEARING OUT QUICKLY THIS MORNING.
620 AM UPDATE...HAVE TAKEN DOWN THE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES
THAT WERE DUE TO EXPIRE AT 7 AM. THE HEAVY SNOW HAS MOVED WELL
AWAY FROM THE REGION WITH BASICALLY SOME FLURRIES LEFT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING
FORECAST WITH INCREASING SUN EXPECTED THIS MORNING DESPITE THE
COLD AND WIND.
PREVIOUSLY...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MAINE AS OF 07Z THIS MORNING WILL
QUICKLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION. THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES HAVE TRANSLATED NORTHEASTWARD INTO
MIDCOAST AND DOWNEAST ME.
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH ITSELF STILL NEEDS TO GO THROUGH, SO SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE (ESPECIALLY IN ME) THROUGH
14Z OR SO. PERHAPS ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BUT THE HEAVIEST
IS OVER WITH AS OF 07Z. EVEN STILL, THE FLUFFY NATURE OF THE
SNOW COMBINED WITH 30 MPH WIND GUSTS AT TIMES WILL YIELD BLOWING
SNOW EARLY ON THIS MORNING BEFORE IT BECOMES MORE DENSE.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO EXPIRE ON TIME
AT 7 AM THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER, A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN LATER
THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BUT STILL COLD AND BREEZY. WIND
CHILLS WILL TOP OUT FROM BETWEEN ABOUT -10F IN THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS IN THE FAR NORTH TO +10F ON THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/
MUCH LESS WINDY BUT CONTINUED COLD TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. WILL ISSUE A COLD AIR ADVISORY (FORMERLY WIND CHILL
ADVISORY) FOR A PORTION ON THE ME MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SUNDAY EVENING UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE RECENT NBM FOR
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS CENTERED OVER THE REGION FOR MID MID WEEK THAT WILL
RETREAT NORTHWARD TOWARDS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE OVERALL PERIOD
CONTINUES TO LOOK MOSTLY DRY WITH MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEPING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES
MODERATE.
PREVIOUSLY...
ARCTIC AIR WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES RECOVER TO CLOSER TO NORMAL GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY EVENING AND PERHAPS ENOUGH TO SET UP GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING IN SOME AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER,
WHETHER IT'S RADIATIONAL COOLING OR A LIGHT BREEZE, IT WILL BE
VERY COLD WITH AND FEEL LIKE -5 TO -10F ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.
WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND, THOSE THAT DO RADIATE COULD GET
EVEN COLDER.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY TO THOSE OF TUESDAY,
BUT WINDS WILL COME DOWN A TOUCH MORE AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARD THE NE. IF ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LEFT, THE MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE A FEW UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WITH AREAS DOWNSTREAM RECEIVING
MORE CLOUDS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BUT MAY NOT BE AS COLD AS THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN.
AFTER THE COLD START ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES START TO RECOVER
THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND FOR TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS
ADVERTISING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW WITH A WEAK WAVE ON
THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS MORE SUPPORT WITHIN THE ENSEMBLES TO KEEP
THINGS DRY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT AMONG THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE
MAJORITY OF THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN KEEPING A COASTAL LOW FAR
ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WHERE WE SEE LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION FROM IT FRI-SAT. THE MOUNTAINS COULD END UP GETTING
SOME UPSLOPE ACTIVITY THOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING AWAY, MOST SHOULD GET
BACK TO VFR QUICKLY EARLY THIS MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH
TONIGHT. COULD SEE A FEW WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25-30 KT TODAY.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH W/NW WINDS
GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT DURING THE DAY TUES-WEDS. THE EXCEPTION
IS OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF UPSLOPE FLOW COULD PRODUCE MVFR
CEILINGS AT HIE FROM TIME TO TIME ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF A SNOW
SHOWER. THERE MAY ALSO BE A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
SNOW AND RESTRICTIONS TOWARD LATE WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...FREEZING SPRAY BEGINS TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING, AND
SHOULD BE WITH US INTO EARLY TUE AM. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PEN BAY AND THE OCEAN WATERS OFF THE
MIDCOAST. SCA WINDS MAY REDEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...WESTERLY FLOW COULD BE ENOUGH FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS ON TUESDAY, BUT BY WEDNESDAY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
US. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW POTENTIALLY
INCREASING TO SCA LEVELS. BY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A DEVELOPING LOW
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WITH HOW THINGS LOOK RIGHT
NOW IS FOR THE LOW TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
WATERS, BUT IT STILL COULD BRING A PERIOD OF INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
TUESDAY FOR NHZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ150>152-
154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ150>152.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ153.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...EKSTER
LONG TERM...COMBS/SCHROETER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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