534
FXUS61 KGYX 082340
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
740 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. JUST UPDATED THE
AVIATION FORECAST/DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH FROST LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR.
2. SHOWERS EVOLVE INTO A STEADY RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. WARMER WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.
3. SHOWERY PERIODS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MOST OF
NEXT WEEK OCCASIONALLY INTERSPERSED WITH SHORTER PERIODS OF FAIR
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY AVERAGE OUT BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
FOLLOWING LAST NIGHT'S SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT, CONDITIONS LOOK
SIMILAR AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH A BUT MORE MOISTURE IN THE
AIR, FROST APPEARS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT. A FROST ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. AN
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT LIKELY KEEPS THE COASTLINE A
LITTLE WARMER TONIGHT. FURTHER INLAND, SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED, BUT HEADLINES WON'T BE ISSUED HERE AS THE
FROST/FREEZE SEASON BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY HASN'T STARTED.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, LOWS LOOK TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS. ELSEWHERE, LOW TO
MID 30S LOOK MOST COMMON, WITH MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
CLOUDS STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY
AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS REACH SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE BY MID MORNING, AND THEN STEADILY PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A
PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. ACROSS THE NORTH LOOKS LIKELY TO
MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE MOISTURE, WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES EXPECTED.
THIS RAIN PROGRESSES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS, AND MOSTLY PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST BY MIDNIGHT TOMORROW
NIGHT. GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH LOOKS LIKELY, WITH
AMOUNTS STEADILY TAPERING OFF TOWARD THE NORTH AND WEST. CLOUDS
LINGER MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND GRADUALLY
BREAKS ITS WAY INTO THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. FROST IS NOT A CONCERN TOMORROW NIGHT, AS LOWS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH, TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST.
WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS
PUSH INTO THE 60S AND LOW 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS LIKELY REMAIN A BIT COOLER,
WITH UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S MORE LIKELY. SUNSHINE MAKES A RETURN
FOR SEVERAL HOURS OF THE DAY, BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LIKELY RETURN IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD AND
ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL TO SEE BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH NEXT WEEK, SHOWERY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED WITH ELEVATED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALL WEEK.
ON MONDAY, A COASTAL LOW LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND
COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW WILL BRING
AN OCCLUDED FRONT NEAR THE REGION AND WILL ACT LIKE A COLD FRONT,
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. DESPITE THE COOLER AIR, SOME SHOWER
AND STORM POTENTIAL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY SHOW STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND STRONG
MIXING, COMBINED WITH AT LEAST 70KTS OF MEAN WIND SHEAR AND ABOUT 1-
200J OF CAPE. THIS CERTAINLY ISN'T AN IDEAL SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT, BUT A FEW GUSTY OUTFLOWS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS. ANOTHER LOW LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND MEANINGFUL RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA. WRAPAROUND
SHOWERS LOOK POSSIBLE THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND, INDICATING
THAT WEATHER COULD REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. CEILINGS THEN
LOWER TO MVFR FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. CEILINGS LOWER FURTHER TO IFR A FEW HOURS
LATER AS SHOWERS GIVE WAY TO A STEADY LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS OR RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS CON, MHT, PSM,
OR PWM. HOWEVER, THUNDER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT BACK TO
MVFR IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT MORE
SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING LIKELY HOLDS OFF UNTIL THE DAYTIME SUNDAY
MORNING.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY: MVFR DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS.
MONDAY: MVFR DUE TO RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GRADUALLY INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
BY SATURDAY EVENING. THESE PERSIST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ON
SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2-4FT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MEZ018>021.
NH...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
NHZ010-013.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 2 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...HARGROVE/CLAIR/PALMER
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