229
FXUS61 KGYX 180221
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1021 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2018
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH SATURDAY AND MONDAY, WITH SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURE WILL BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH
BETWEEN NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS,
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MESOSCALE MODELS (GYX RADAR UNDER
MAINTENANCE). ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT EARLIER THIS
EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT POST-FRONTAL.
A LULL WILL CONTINUE IN THE WIND FIELDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN MOST
AREAS, EXCEPT FOR WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THEREAFTER, WINDS BEGIN
TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO
OUR EAST.
GRADIENT REALIGNS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER LATER TONIGHT AND SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW
FOR AN INCREASED GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND HIGHER MIXING
VALUES. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR LATER TONIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS ON THURSDAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE
ADVISORIES TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COOS AND GRAFTON COUNTIES
WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OUR MAXIMUM WIND GUST
FORECASTS.
OTHERWISE, JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE, DEW POINT AND
CLOUD COVER FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 30S BY MORNING ALONG THE COAST, ALTHOUGH A FROST IS
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE ONGOING WINDS. A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED
TOMORROW NIGHT ALL ZONES.
PREV DISC...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT. AS OF 3PM WINDS THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN WERE
STILL WEST SOUTHWEST HOWEVER THE FIRST SURGE OF COLD AIR IS
ALIGNED FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND SUNSET. AS IT DOES EXPECT WINDS TO
SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST WITH CONTINUED GUSTS.
CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY BOTH DUE TO THE FRONT ITSELF AS WELL AS
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS IS ONGOING THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO PROPAGATE WITH THE FRONT INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS. WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER AS THE
PREDOMINATE CHARACTERISTIC WILL BE MORE GENERALIZED SHOWERS.
AS THE COLD AIR ADVANCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AT MANIWAKI SHOWING THE MIXED LAYER
EXTENDING TO AROUND 7000FT. THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
TO MIX DOWN 35KT GUST THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION AND THUS A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BUT THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SHELTER THE MORE POPULATED VALLEY LOCATIONS,
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGETOPS WILL SEE A FEW OF THE HIGHER GUSTS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT REACHING LOWS NEAR
FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. WHILE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL
ACTIVE IN A FEW ZONES, THE WIND WILL PREVENT ANY FROST FORMATION AND
THUS NO FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
THE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON
AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. THE WINDS
WILL CALM OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP FURTHER UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY EXPECT TO SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO
FAR THIS SEASON WITH LOW IN THE TEENS NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST. THIS WILL END THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE REMAINING
ZONES AND EXPECT A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE +PNA PATTERN OVER NOAM, AT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL MEAN GENERAL TROUGHING AND COOLER
CONDITIONS OVER NEW ENGLAND, ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL TROUGH WILL
MOVE QUICKLY. THIS WILL MEAN SOME SEE-SAWING OF TEMPS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD VARYING FROM NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL
BE A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, MAINLY RAIN, EXCEPT FOR SOME SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MTNS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENTS ARE
EXPECTED. THE EURO'S BEEN HINTING AT A CLOSED LOW IN THE
VICINITY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT HAS PUSHED THAT TO
LATER NEXT WEEK IN ITS LATEST 12Z RUN.
STARTING FRIDAY, SHOULD SEE A DECENT SW FLOW DEVELOP, WHICH WILL
BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S IN MOST PLACES, AND RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL. THE SW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS CLOSING 500 MB
LOW TRACKS TO OUR N, AND PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE
DAY OR SAT NIGHT, WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. HIGHS SAT
COULD APPROACH 60 IN THE WARMER SPOTS. COLDER AIR MOVES IN ONCE
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE
40S /BUT MAY APPROACH 50 NEAR THE COAST AND IN SRN NH/. A WEAK
WAVE MOVES THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY AND COULD PRODUCE MORE
SHOWERS.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT ALL
TERMINALS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
CLOUD COVER REMAINS MOSTLY AT VFR AND ABOVE HOWEVER A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
GUST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.
CONDITIONS WILL CALM WITH VFR CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH COULD
SEE SOME TEMP FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS SAT AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.
HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS AND
HAVE INCLUDED THE BAYS. WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW GALE LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED IN SW FLOW LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN IN NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
EQUIPMENT
DUE TO AN UNFORESEEN PROBLEM WITH THE PART ON ORDER, THE KGYX
RADAR WILL BE DOWN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE
KBOX, KCBW, KENX, AND KCXX FOR COVERAGE OVER THE GYX FORECAST
AREA.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012>014-018>028.
NH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>006-
008>010-012>015.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
JC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page