830
FXUS61 KGYX 022345
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
645 PM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATE TO REFLECT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND TO UPDATE THE
AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LEAD TO SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WINTRY MIX
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST
MAINE.
2. MILD AIR MAKES NORTHWARD PROGRESS INTO NEW ENGLAND MID TO
LATE WEEK, WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS, WE ARE LOOKING AT ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
WITH BELOW ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN VALLEYS AND VICINITY. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
INTERIOR OF MAINE. COASTAL AREAS COULD SEE SOME READINGS IN THE
LOWER TEENS.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES IN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE CAMS ARE SUGGESTING THAT WE COULD SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BY MID
AFTERNOON, IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME TO OVERCOME DRY AIR AT THE
SURFACE. WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS TO FALL, FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WE WILL MAINLY SEE SNOW AS SURFACE TEMPS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE 32 TO 35 DEGREE RANGE. LATER IN THE EVENING, SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A WARM NOSE ALOFT MAY NUDGE IN AND LEAD TO SOME POCKETS
OF A WINTRY MIX AT TIMES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE OR SOUTHWEST MAINE. WHILE SOME FREEZING
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS WINTRY MIX (MAINLY AT NIGHT),
CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCRETION IS CURRENTLY TOO LOW TO
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT BUT TRENDS WILL BE IMPORTANT
TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF FORECAST CYCLES. FOR CENTRAL
NEW HAMPSHIRE, THE INTERIOR OF MAINE, THE MIDCOAST AND POINTS
NORTH, EXPECT MAINLY SNOW WITH A GENERAL SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES BACK IN ON WEDNESDAY WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S NORTH, TO THE
LOWER 50S SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
500MB HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE
MORE UPPER-LEVEL WARMTH TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR WINTRY MIX, AND SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA AS A LOW MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
ON THURSDAY. CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION STILL LOOK FAIRLY
UNCERTAIN WITH MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEEPING PRECIPITATION IN
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME WINTRY MIX
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS ON
PRECIPITATION TYPE, AMOUNTS AND TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT. WARMER
TEMPERATURES LOOK SLATED TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BEYOND THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY: WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WE
COULD SEE SOME BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS AT AUG AND RKD BY MID TO
LATE TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS THICKEN AND
LOWER FROM SW TO NE DURING THE AFTERNOON. SNOW OVERSPREADS FROM
SW TO NE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING TO AT LEAST IFR BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY NIGHT: SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY
ENDING OVERNIGHT. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
-PL/-FZRA OR EVEN RA AT MHT, CON, PSM, AND PWM.
WEDNESDAY: IFR OR LOWER IN THE MORNING DUE TO SNOW AND WINTRY
WEATHER. CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY DAYBREAK, WITH VFR BY THE END OF
THE DAY.
THURSDAY: VFR IN THE MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY
DEGRADING THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: IFR OR LOWER EXPECTED DUE TO SNOW, RAIN
AND WINTRY MIX.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY MORNING AND
LAST THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME. CONDITIONS
EASE AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP ON FRIDAY, REACHING SCA LEVELS
FRIDAY MORNING. SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY BUT
COULD RETURN TO SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TUESDAY TO 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...HARGROVE/PALMER/SCHROETER
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