410
FXUS61 KGYX 231354
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
954 AM EDT TUE APR 23 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY FOR WARMER AND DRY
CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY
BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
945AM UPDATE...NOT MANY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. CURRENT OBS
SHOW THAT THE COAST AND JUST INLAND HAVE WARMED THE QUICKEST,
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S AT THIS HOUR. MIXING
SHOULD KICK OFF SHORTLY, WITH BREEZE INCREASING.
640 AM UPDATE...MINOR UPDATE TO T/TDS TO REFLECT OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS.
PREVIOUSLY...
HIGH PRESSURE ALIGNED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC TODAY WHILE PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER. AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
WITH GUSTS TOPPING OUT AROUND 25 MPH INLAND AND CLOSER TO 30 MPH
ALONG THE COAST. THESE ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE WHILE PORTIONS OF INTERIOR NH CLIMB INTO THE
MID 60S. THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WHILE OVERALL THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN DRY LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS MIN RH DROPS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS MAINE
AND 25 PERCENT ACROSS NH.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT
GENERATING AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM MID 30S ACROSS MUCH OF MAINE TO AROUND 40
DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN NH.
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE GENERALLY TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY BRINGING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE AREA WITH
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING COLDER AIR INTO NW ZONES ALLOWING FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN TO VALLEY FLOORS BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. OVERALL, QPF WILL BE LIGHT ON THE ORDER OF 0.25
INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS MAY ONLY SEE A FEW HOURS OF RAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH DRYING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
HIGHEST SUMMITS COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOWFALL WITH
NORTHERN VALLEYS SEEING A COATING OF SNOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE 40S NORTH TO 50S SOUTH WITH THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEING
REALIZED AROUND MID DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION TO END AS A FEW SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER AIR ON DOWNSLOPE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO
CLEAR SKIES OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 20S IN ALL AREAS BY MORNING ON
BRISK WINDS.
THE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER,
SIGNIFICANT MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
TO CONTINUE AND PREVENTING THE FORMATION OF A SEA BREEZE IN MOST
AREAS.
AFTER AN AFTERNOON REACHING THE 50S ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES WARMER AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH READINGS REACHING
NEAR 60 DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THIS WARMING
TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
DEVELOPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE
EAST COAST. WIDESPREAD LOWER TO MID 60S CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COASTLINE DUE TO A
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WARMTH CULMINATES ON
SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 70S ACROSS SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE COOLER ALONG THE
COASTLINE DUE TO A SEA BREEZE WITH THE MIDCOAST REGION
PARTICULARLY CHILLY. THERE WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION,
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS MODELS SUGGEST A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 20 KTS BY LATE MORNING. VFR LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY LOWERING CIGS FROM NW TO SE
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOW CIGS AND -RA WILL LIKELY BRING MVFR
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LEAD TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES SUNDAY
AND THROUGH THE BEGINNING PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE WATERS WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS SOUTH FLOW WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF SCA CONDITIONS FROM PORT CLYDE SOUTHWARD. THERE WILL BE A
RESURGENCE OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 5-6
FEET BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM...WINDS WILL GUST INTO SCA THRESHOLDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION ON AN INCREASED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDE THEREAFTER AND BECOME LOCALLY ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ152-154.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL/SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...SCHROETER
LONG TERM...CANNON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page