670
FXUS61 KGYX 242332
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
732 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALL BUT MOVED OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH QUICKLY AS WE APPROACH SUNSET AS
WELL. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO
UPDATE THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS.
2. RAIN MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
3. UNSETTLED SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK,
RETURNING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE FAR NORTHERN ME BY EARLY THIS
EVENING. BROAD LIFT FROM THE LOW AND DAYTIME INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS,
MOSTLY IN AND AROUND THE MOUNTAIN. A STORM OR TWO MAY PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AS FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY LOW ALOFT. CHANCES
THEN DROP OFF QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO ELSEWHERE, BUT IN GENERAL PARTLY SUNNY AND
PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH SOMEWHAT BREEZY
CONDITIONS OF 20-25 MPH AT TIMES. TONIGHT REMAINS DRY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S, EXCEPT THE COAST MAY STAY A BIT COOLER WITH THE
SEABREEZE DEVELOPING AND MOVING ASHORE A LITTLE QUICKER. CLOUDS
BEGINS TO INCREASE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS, MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE BETTER FORCING ARRIVES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSES THE REGION, ALLOWING RAIN TO OVERSPREAD NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER POSSIBLE.
MODELS ARE TRENDING FASTER WITH THIS ROUND OF RAINFALL WITH
HINTS IT TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. THIS ROUND MAY BRING BETWEEN 0.25" AND
0.75" ON A LARGER SCALE, BUT THE HRRR AND NAMNEST ARE SUGGESTING
A STRIPE OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1-2" MAY OCCUR.
THE FASTER TREND WILL BRING A LONGER/BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. DEEP LAYER SHEER OF
40-45 KT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL BE
ACHIEVED VIA ANY CLEARING WITH VARYING SOLUTIONS AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE. IT CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING TRENDS AS THE LATEST NAM,
RAP, AND RRFS SUGGEST SBCAPE MAY REACH 1000-1500 J/KG ACROSS
PARTS OF NH AND FAR WESTERN ME. IF STORMS DO MATERIALIZE, THE
PRIMARY HARD WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND ALSO HAIL. THERE MAY
ALSO BE ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
OUR SYSTEM ON FRIDAY STARTS WRAPPING UP TOWARDS THE EVENING HOURS
AND BEGINS EXITING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES, ALTHOUGH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE EXPECTED INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ON
FRIDAY. LOOKING AHEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE MID-TO-UPPER 70S, WITH SOME PLACES IN
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE REACHING THE LOW 80S.
WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE WILL DIP INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND, AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
DIURNAL HEATING WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. MOST HI-
RES MODELS KEEP A MAJORITY OF SATURDAY CLEAR DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE, THEREFORE POPS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN
SUNDAY. MOVING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY START
TO BUILD INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S, WITH OUR PATTERN SUPPORTING DAILY
CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS, ESPECIALLY INLAND AND AWAY
FROM THE COAST. FURTHERMORE, UPCOMING TRENDS INDICATE A HOTTER
PATTERN TOWARDS THE LEAD UP OF THE JULY 4TH WEEKEND, WITH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TOWARDS 70, MAKING THINGS FEEL A
BIT MORE MUGGY THAN IT HAS BEEN AS OF LATE. THIS HEAT IS
SUPPORTED BY THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE,
DRIVING H850 TEMPS INTO THE UPPER TEENS. WE SHOULD SEE
TEMPERATURES GETTING BACK WELL INTO THE 80S, AND EVEN NEAR 90 IN
TYPICALLY WARMER SPOTS WITHIN THE MERRIMACK VALLEY LATER NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. A FEW MORE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION AT ANY
SPECIFIC SITE THIS FAR OUT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM MVFR TO LIFR
WITH RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS LIKELY. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON: PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MOSTLY DRY
WITH PERIODS OF AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MARINE
THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY. WEST WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACH. THERE WATERS
WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE SUBSIDING AS FRONT MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. S-SW WINDS RETURN SUNDAY INTO NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE SAT/SUN WITH THE SHORTWAVE, BUT BEST CHANCES
ARE INLAND. NO SIGN OF CONCERNING SWELLS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARGROVE/COMBS
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