752  
FXUS61 KGYX 081824  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
224 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON  
AND EVENING PROVIDING THE FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.  
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS STAY IN THE FORECAST  
THROUGH THE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD  
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES. SHOWER  
ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLE HEAT RETURNS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
THE FOCUS TODAY CONTINUES TO BE ON DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST  
MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. STORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED  
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL  
RATES. SO FAR STORMS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY SMALL IN SIZE AND  
HAVE CONTINUED MOVING, HELPING TO LIMIT RAINFALL TOTALS. THE  
CONCERN REMAINS FOR REPEAT STORMS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS  
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  
 
THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND BIDDEFORD, WEST OF  
SEBAGO LAKE, AND THEN EAST OF FRYEBURG. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES  
TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO  
FIRE INTO TOWNS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST INTO SOUTHEAST NEW  
HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, HEAT INDICES HAVE  
REACHED THE MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE  
SEACOAST. THE HEAT CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE  
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.  
 
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY CONTINUE TO  
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE CONTINUE TO BE  
THE FOCUS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD RISK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS  
WITH THESE STORMS, WITH THE THREAT OF REPEAT STORMS THROUGH THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TOMORROW, WITH  
MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S. SOME LOW TO MID 80S ARE  
LIKELY RESERVED FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND THE  
FRONT, POP UP SHOWERS AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL MOST  
OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALONG  
THE COAST, MORE LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW.  
 
SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT SOME  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT  
HOURS. TEMPERATURES COOL MORE THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHT, WITH LOWS  
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:  
* SUMMER PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
* NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OR FLASH FLOODING  
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.  
 
PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW WITH TWO MID-LEVEL  
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS  
FORECAST PERIOD. THURSDAY INTO THE EVENING THE FIRST ORGANIZED  
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. PWAT VALUES COULD SURGE TO 1.5" ACROSS  
THE AREA, BUT STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MITIGATE FLASH  
FLOOD CONCERNS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR LOOKS MINIMAL ALSO, SO SEVERE  
THREAT DOESN'T SEEM ANYTHING ABOVE MARGINAL AS WORST CASE AT THIS  
TIME. FRONT IS EXPECT CLEAR THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME  
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT  
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. RIDGING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE  
WEEKEND WITH BUILDING HEAT ONCE AGAIN, BUT LOOKING DRY AT THIS POINT  
FOR SATURDAY. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY  
LATE SUNDAY, WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE IS THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.  
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY, BUT TIMING OF THIS  
FEATURE IS PLUS OR MINUS 18HRS AT THIS POINT, SO WILL SEE HOW THINGS  
TREND. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A DESCENT SUMMER WEEKEND, ALBEIT A LITTLE  
WARM. SHOWER ACTIVITY CHANCES AND HEAT LIKELY TO BUILD THE BEGINNING  
THE NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HEART  
OF SUMMER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROBS REMAIN LOW AT MOST TERMINALS, WITH  
PWM MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER SHOWER. CEILINGS LOWER TONIGHT  
WITH IFR IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. MVFR  
CEILINGS PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE  
AT TIMES. IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL TUESDAY WITH SOME FOG  
ALSO POSSIBLE.  
 
LONG TERM...FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO LIFR  
CONDITIONS AS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA. CLOUD  
COVER COULD LIMIT THIS DEVELOPMENT THREAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CLEARING FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH  
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT  
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG  
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.  
 
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS  
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT CHANCES  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NE ONSHORE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE  
OVER THE COASTAL WATER THURSDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-012>014.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...DUMONT  
NEAR TERM...CLAIR  
SHORT TERM...CLAIR  
LONG TERM...DUMONT  
AVIATION...CLAIR  
MARINE...CLAIR  
 
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