376
FXUS61 KGYX 052353
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
753 PM EDT SAT SEP 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR UPDATE TO THE AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.
2. A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VALLEY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS (SOME COULD BE
STRONG) WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY, AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND
IT THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING AS AN EMBEDDED WAVE IN CYCLONIC FLOW PASSES OVERHEAD. IT
WILL ALSO BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN ME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT, GUSTS SLACKEN BUT THERE WILL REMAIN A BREEZE AS WAVE
COMPLETES ITS PASSING. THERE WILL BE THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF NH THROUGH TONIGHT, BUT THESE SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE DRIER, BUT REMAIN BREEZY IN PROXIMITY
TO TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE EAST. LESS CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGS THE POSSIBILITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING IN THE VALLEYS,
BUT HIGHER, MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS COULD SEE CONTINUED BREEZE
THAT NEGATES FURTHER OVERNIGHT COOLING.
WITH THE EASTWARD EXIT OF LOW PRESSURE INTO TUESDAY, COMES A
DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS FROM QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE
WARMED FROM THE WEEKEND, BUT ONLY INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND
80. LOWER DAYTIME RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD ALLOW FOR A
EFFICIENT DRYING DAY, BUT THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE
ADVANCING TOWARDS THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
ENSEMBLE MSLP HAS A SUB-1000 MB LOW PRESSURE MOVING THRU QUEBEC
NORTH OF THE GASPE PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THAT LOW
PRESSURE, AND MOST OF THE WEATHER NEXT WEEK WILL BE CENTERED
AROUND ITS PASSAGE. A MODEST SOUTHWEST LLJ, ON THE ORDER OF 40
TO 50 KNOTS, WILL DEVELOP WED, BUT CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE
LOOK STABLE ENOUGH THAT I AM NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT WIND
GUSTS FROM IT. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TRANSPORT MORE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION THOUGH, SO DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S
ACROSS THE REGION, AND MAY EVEN PUSH THE 60S IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. WHILE OVERALL THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
LOOKING PRETTY STABLE, THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME NOMINAL
INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THAT IS CONCERN BECAUSE THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF SHEAR THANKS TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LLJ. CSU MACHINE
LEARNING SEVERE PROBABILITIES ARE SHOWING A ROUGHLY 5 PERCENT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK LOCALLY WED. THAT SEEMS REASONABLE, NOT
SOMETHING I PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE FORECAST GRIDS JUST YET,
BUT WORTH MENTIONING IN DISCUSSIONS/BRIEFINGS.
THE PRECIP ITSELF WILL BE SHOWERY IN NATURE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. SO I DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
THIS IS YET ANOTHER HIGH POP/LOW QPF TYPE EVENT, WHICH IS MORE
OR LESS WHAT THE NBM IS FORECASTING AT THIS TIME.
FINALLY ONCE THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA, WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION COMMENCES. ON THU AS MIXING
HEIGHTS INCREASE THAT WILL LEAD TO A GUSTY DAY. AT THIS TIME
FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA INDICATE THAT GUSTS
AROUND 30 MPH ARE LIKELY. HOWEVER A FEW SPOTS MAY PUSH 40 MPH
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL WESTERN MAINE. ONCE THAT COOLER
AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE REGION, FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT MAY BE
CHILLY ACROSS MANY SPOTS. SOME WIDESPREAD 40S ARE LIKELY, AND A
THE NORTHERN VALLEY COLD SPOTS MAY BE FLIRTING WITH UPPER 30S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...TEMPO SHRA CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHRA ACROSS NH LATE
TONIGHT. THESE SHRA COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR VIS, OTHERWISE
CIGS/VIS VFR WITH SCT MVFR CIG AT TIMES. IF CLOUDS BEGIN TO
THIN AFTER MIDNIGHT, VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE FOR HIE/LEB.
MAINLY VFR SUNDAY, BUT BREEZY AS NW WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS
15 TO 20 KTS.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS.
MONDAY: VFR, NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY: LOCAL MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LLWS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY: BECOMING VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 25 KT
POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AND MUCH OF
MONDAY AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE REGION. GUSTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA, BUT SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY ON THE OUTER WATERS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE WED AND BY WED NIGHT SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER ALL WATERS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING OVERNIGHT TO 5
OR 6 FEET OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY THU AND
REMAIN BREEZY, SO SEAS WILL ONLY GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU THE DAY.
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS ARE EXPECTED FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CORNWELL/LEGRO
AVIATION...SCHROETER
MARINE...CORNWELL/LEGRO
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