120
FXUS61 KGYX 081118
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
618 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO START ACROSS THE NORTH WITH RAIN
BECOMING THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE SUNDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR
MOVES INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SHOWERY
WEATHER.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
6 AM UPDATE: NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE. JUST
BLENDED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO THE GOING FORECAST AND
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING EAST ACROSS QUEBEC WILL LIFT A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY ON THEIR
UPWARD TREND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY LIGHT RAIN OCCURRING
ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DIMINISH AROUND DAY BREAK
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT WORKING IN ON DEEP LAYER SOUTHWEST TO WEST
FLOW. THIS DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SUNSHINE COMBINED
WITH MIXING UP TO 850 MB WILL ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WHILE NORTHERN AREAS
WILL BE RESTRICTED TO THE 40S.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
THE PASSING COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF CLOUDS OR PRECIPITATION. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT BUT WILL BECOME LIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
THESE LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 DEGREES ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
THE NEXT SYSTEM IN THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL START TO TAKE SHAPE
SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. SUNDAY WILL
START OFF MOSTLY DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AS WAA
STRENGTHENS. THE WAA REGIME WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NH INTO THE
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MAINE. THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW OR WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION NOT ARRIVING UNTIL
SUNDAY EVENING WITH RAIN LIKELY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO UPPER 40S SOUTH.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
LONG TERM UPDATE: LITTLE CHANGE IN THOUGHTS AND RESULTANT
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRYING TO
RESOLVE INDIVIDUAL SURFACE LOWS AMID THE BROADER CYCLONIC
DISTURBANCE. BASIS TENDS TO BE THE NORTHERN WAVE ATTEMPTING TO
PHASE WITH LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS BOTH QUICKLY BECOME
NORTHBOUND THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS PITS THE CWA UNDER AN
OVERRUNNING EVENT, LEAVING MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF
THE EAST COAST. THIS IS A COMMON STORM TYPE FOR THE REGION, BUT
THE DUELING SURFACE LOWS WILL COMPLICATE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE: NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP EARLY IN THE WEEK FOLLOWED BY BREEZY OFFSHORE
WINDS AND UPSLOPE SHOWERS.
IMPACTS: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ANTICIPATED. SOME
WINTRY WEATHER EXPECTED IN THE MTNS.
FORECAST DETAILS: MOST OF THE ACTION WILL OCCUR IN THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED AS A SEASONABLY STRONG TROF CROSSES THE
EASTERN CONUS. THE BULK OF THE ANOMALOUS CONDITIONS WILL BE IN
THE BASE OF THE TROF...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST...BUT A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET AND LEFT EXIT REGION WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA SUN/SUN NIGHT. IT WILL BE A COLD RAIN FOR MOST...WITH WINTRY
PRECIP LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SUN EVENING. AS THE
COLUMN DRIES, THIS MAY TURN TO DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING SURFACE TEMPS AT THIS RANGE...I HAVE
KEPT PRECIP TYPES JUST RAIN AND SNOW FOR NOW.
BY MON NIGHT A SOLID COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING THRU THE
REGION. STRONG CAA WILL HELP WITH MECHANICAL MIXING BUT I WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE NEEDED A LITTLE SUNSHINE TUE TO HELP MIX
THE FRONT COMPLETELY THRU. CAA WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST TUE
NIGHT...SO I ANTICIPATE GUSTY WINDS FOR AROUND 24 HRS. THAT WILL
ALSO START A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL WEATHER...WHERE TEMPS
LARGELY STAY IN THE 40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. WITH CONTINUED
OFFSHORE WINDS THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...UPSLOPE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO LINGER IN THE MTNS.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM... CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SOME MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN HANGING AROUND IN
THE VICINITY OF THE MIDCOAST. RKD AND AUG COULD SEE ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO OF RESTRICTIONS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT
SYSTEM BRINGS LOWERING CIGS AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY BY SUNDAY
EVENING.
LONG TERM...INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR MVFR/IFR CEILINGS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. LIFR PROBS ALSO INCREASING BETWEEN
MIDNIGHT AND 11AM MON MORNING. SN WILL BE ONGOING NORTH OF THE
WHITES AND WESTERN ME MTNS BEFORE MIDNIGHT, BUT TRANSITION TO
RA LIKE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. RA TAPERS IN THE
EVENING, WITH CEILINGS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MTNS IMPROVING
TOWARDS VFR. TWO PERIODS OF WINDS TO CONSIDER, ONE SUNDAY NIGHT
AMID THE POTENTIAL LOW RESTRICTIONS: E BECOMING N W/ GUSTS
AROUND 15 KT, AND THE SECOND: WINDS BECOME W MON EVENING WITH
INCREASING GUST FACTOR TUESDAY AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 30 KTS WILL START TO
SUBSIDE AFTER SUNRISE. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH TODAY WITH
SCAS REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR SEAS GREATER THAN 5 FEET. WINDS AND
SEAS DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS BY
SUNDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE
WATERS SUNDAY EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR ONE SURFACE LOW TO PUSH
ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER, WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES THE GULF
OF MAINE FROM THE SOUTH MONDAY. RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF
NEAR-GALE CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE INTO
MONDAY. AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, WINDS BECOME WEST MON NIGHT WITH
GALES MORE LIKELY TUES INTO WED.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ153.
NEAR TERM...HARGROVE/SCHROETER
SHORT TERM...SCHROETER
LONG TERM...CORNWELL
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