511
FXUS61 KGYX 171841
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
241 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM THE NBM BASED
ON LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY FOR COOLER CONDITIONS AND
CLOUDIER SKIES SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH POSSIBLY DENSE FOG
SATURDAY NIGHT.
2. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND FALLING TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY. LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
3. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS TO START NEXT WEEK, BUT THE LONG-
RANGE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED DEEPER INTO THE WEEK.
4. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE DURING THE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND SLIDES EAST THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN NH COMING TO
AN END. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT
AND WILL PRESS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND THE HIGH WILL SHIFT MORE ONSHORE
SATURDAY. THESE WINDS WILL ADVECT MARINE AIR INTO THE COASTAL
PLAIN WITH SKIES TURNING MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S ALONG THE CT VALLEY WHERE THERE
WILL BE MORE SUNSHINE TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION BY A TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AND OVER THE
GULF OF ME ON SUNDAY BEFORE EXITING TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY EVENING. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
COMBINED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO
THE REGION WITH GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.25-0.75" OF QPF EXPECTED. A NON-
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES
WITH TEMPERATURES INITIALLY INTO THE 40S BEFORE FALLING INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. LATEST
FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE COLUMN MAY COOL QUICKLY
ENOUGH FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR EVEN TRANSITION TO SOME WET SNOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING SUNDAY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GIVEN THE HIGH MID-
APRIL SUN ANGLE AND MARGINAL SFC TEMPERATURES, ACCUMULATIONS
DURING THE DAYTIME WILL BE TOUGH TO ACHIEVE UNLESS SNOWFALL
RATES ARE OVER 1"/HR OR SO (WHICH IS UNLIKELY). NEVERTHELESS, A
SLUSHY COATING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN NH AND UP THROUGH THE
FOOTHILLS AND POINTS NORTH. THE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN BORDER HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SLUSHY 1-3".
PRECIPITATION WILL END SUNDAY EVENING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 20S AND 30S.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY AS H8S HOVER
AROUND -10C. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO THE 40S IN MOST LOCATIONS, ALTHOUGH NW WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 MPH WILL MAKE IT FEEL COLDER. MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY BUT
SOME UPSLOPE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S. ANOTHER DRY DAY IS LIKELY ON
TUESDAY AS AN H5 S/WV RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.
SHOWER CHANCES THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE NEXT TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
COOL AND AT TIMES UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN LOOKS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS NEAR OR
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND SURGE OF UP TO
AROUND 1/2 FOOT MAY BRING TOTAL WATER LEVELS TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD
STAGE DURING THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM PORTLAND AND POINTS
SOUTH.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. CLOUDS
THICKEN AND LOWER AFTER 06Z WITH CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND THEN
IFR BY SATURDAY MORNING FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT KHIE AND KLEB. KLEB
WILL BE ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MARINE CLOUD DECK AND
MAY DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT AND SCATTER
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER PUSH OF MARINE AIR
ARRIVES BRINGING LOWERING CIGS FROM THE COAST TO POINTS INLAND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL LIKELY BRING IFR/LIFR TO
ALL SITES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: IFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z MONDAY WITH LIFR POSSIBLE DUE TO RA AND LOW CEILINGS. RASN
IS POSSIBLE AT KHIE. NW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS. IMPROVEMENTS
LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS WITH NW WINDS AT 10-20 KTS
DURING THE DAYTIME BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: LOWERING CEILINGS DURING THE DAY WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT DUE TO -SHRA AND LOWER CEILINGS.
SE WINDS AT 10-15 KTS.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH NE FLOW TURNING MORE ONSHORE SATURDAY AND THEN
SOUTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT.
A FEW GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT. OTHERWISE,
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
TUESDAY. INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHROETER/TUBBS
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