766
FXUS61 KGYX 021137
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
637 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. ALSO, BLENDED IN THE
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO BETTER ALIGN THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY LIKELY SPREADING SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE.
2. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND MIXED PRECIP
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
3. MILD AIR MAKES NORTHWARD PROGRESS INTO NEW ENGLAND MID TO
LATE WEEK, WITH MORE CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AND WILL LIKELY SPREAD A WET
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES BY THE TIME OF THE
EVENING COMMUTE. THIS MAY CAUSE FOR SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ON
COLDER UNTREATED SURFACES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDES EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE
TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, SPREADING SNOW FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AFTER TEMPS WARM
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 DURING THE DAY, THEY QUICKLY DROP
BACK TO NEAR FREEZING ONCE THE SNOW ARRIVES. THERE LIKELY WON'T
BE MUCH ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS FOLLOWING THE
MILD DAY, BUT THE SNOW WILL THEN STICK AFTER SUNSET.
SOME WARMER AIR PROGRESSES IN ALOFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NH, SO SOME
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE HERE AND INTO
SOUTHWEST MAINE AFTER THE PERIOD OF SNOW. SOME PLAIN RAIN IS
ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE SEACOAST AS TEMPERATURES MAY CREEP
BACK UP JUST ABOVE FREEZING TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT.
THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A TAPERING OFF IN THE SNOWFALL TOWARD
NORTHERN AREAS, WITH LIMITED ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTH. IN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS THAT REMAIN SNOW, A GENERAL 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE, WITH A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER RATIO SNOW POSSIBLE WHERE
TEMPS SIT AT ABOUT 30-31 DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
WARMER AIR THEN HAS SOME SUCCESS IN MIXING TO THE GROUND ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 40S TO NEAR 50 IN MANY
AREAS. THE COOL AIR THEN TRIES TO MAKE A COMEBACK ON THURSDAY
WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. MODELS STILL REMAIN SPLIT ON WHETHER
THIS FRONT PUSHES BACK THROUGH AND BRINGS COOLER AIR, OR IF
MILD TEMPS HOLD ON FOR ONE MORE DAY. HISTORY SUGGESTS THAT THE
COOL AIR WILL FIND IT'S WAY BACK IN SOONER GIVEN THE TIME OF
YEAR AND LINGERING NEARBY FRONT.
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN APPROACHES ON FRIDAY. MODELS
HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL MAKE IT FROM
THIS SYSTEM, BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER AHEAD OF ANY MOISTURE
THAT DOES MAKE IT. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A SNOWIER SOLUTION ACROSS
NORTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS, WITH MORE OF A MIX TOWARD THE SOUTH
AND WEST. WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS, AS THERE ARE MODELS
THAT SHOW VERY LITTLE MOISTURE MAKING IT INTO THE REGION AS
WELL.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY: VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON OUT OF THE NW.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUING. NO LLWS IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM W-E
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY ENDING
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
-PL/-FZRA OR EVEN RA AT MHT, CON, PSM, AND PWM.
WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH ANY
LEFTOVER PRECIP COMING TO AN END IN THE MORNING. MAINLY VFR
OTHERWISE.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY: SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MIXED PRECIP AND IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LAST
INTO TUESDAY IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME. SCA TO NEAR MARGINAL
GALES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS
EASE AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THEN, SCA
CONDITIONS IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY FRIDAY, AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/CLAIR/EKSTER
AVIATION...TUBBS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page