618
FXUS61 KGYX 130521
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1221 AM EST TUE JAN 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM AS THE VARIOUS
GUIDANCE SOURCES CONTINUE TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH A
COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. WARMUP CONTINUES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COUPLE OF WEAK
SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
BRINGING A FEW BOUTS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST
AREA, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS.
2. MULTIPLE SYSTEMS WILL BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND
SLIPPERY TRAVEL THROUGH THE EXTENDED WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
TODAY SHOULD BE A MAINLY FAIR WEATHER DAY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S SHOULD BE THE NORM AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
TODAY WHILE THE MOUNTAINS REMAIN THE THE 30S BUT STILL ABOVE
NORMAL.
A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A RESULT WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION
FOLLOWING, LASTING FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT AND ENDING PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. WE EXPECTED SNOW SHOWERS WITH THIS ACTIVITY INLAND AND
RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST. SOME SLIPPERY SPOTS POSSIBLE FOR
WED AM COMMUTE POSSIBLE INLAND.
CLOUDY WEDNESDAY BUT CONTINUED ON THE WARM SIDE, RELATIVELY
SPEAKING WITH HIGHS UPPER 30S TO POTENTIALLY SOME MID 40S.
FORCING FOR ASCENT LOOKS TO BE WEAK ON WED SO JUST SOME LIGHT
ON AND OFF SHOWERS ARE FORESEEN.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN US WILL ALLOW FOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN OVER MLK
DAY WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY MORNING AS A LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHEAST. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
COASTAL MAINE, AND SNOW WILL MAINLY FALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
THE STORM LOOKS QUITE DISORGANIZED, WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY
TO BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM A COATING TO 2 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR. MINIMAL TRAVEL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
ANOTHER DISORGANIZED LOW ARRIVES ON SUNDAY, AND IS LIKELY TO
BRING A QUICK BURST OF SNOW TO THE AREA. WHILE SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS, LIGHTER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK MORE LIKELY
FOR SUNDAY AT THIS TIME. THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH
POTENTIALLY ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING BY MID-NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
TODAY, WHILE MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN POSSIBLE AT HIE.
THE NEXT WAVE THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY EVENING, LEADING TO MORE
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITY IN RAIN
SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IFR POSSIBLE IN SNOW SHOWERS AT LEB AND HIE. MVFR
RESTRICTIONS MORE LIKELY AT OTHER TERMINALS IN LIGHT RAIN EARLY BUT
COULD LOWER TO IFR IF RAIN TRANSITIONS TO SNOW.
THURS NIGHT AND FRIDAY: MORE WIDESPREAD WINTRY PRECIPITATION
(MOSTLY SNOW) AND IFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT HIE.
MONDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
TODAY-WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. THEY RETURN ON TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
CROSSES THROUGH THE GULF OF MAINE. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF WEDNESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE
PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20KTS AND 2-4FT
SEAS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLIES, STRENGTHEN TO SCA LEVELS AND SEAS INCREASE TO
3-6FT. THESE CONDITIONS MORE OR LESS REMAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF MLK DAY WEEKEND.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/HARGROVE/PALMER
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