603
FXUS61 KGYX 160626
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
126 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN TIME FOR THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE RESULTING IN MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN TIME FOR THE TUESDAY
MORNING COMMUTE RESULTING IN MINOR TRAVEL IMPACTS. TEMPERATURES
RISE ABOVE FREEZING LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
2. THERE ARE TWO DISTINCT SYSTEMS MID AND LATE WEEK TO WATCH FOR
THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST COULD
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH UNCERTAINTY ON NORTHERN EXTENT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY THROUGH TODAY.
A SHORT WAVE AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WARM FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
AROUND THE TIME OF THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE. THE LATEST NBM
CONTINUES TO KEEP POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WHILE LATEST AVAILABLE HI RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AT LEAST A
COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE WARM FRONT
IMPINGES ON THE AREA. HAVE UTILIZED HI RES GUIDANCE INTO THE
LATEST FORECAST TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TRAVEL
IMPACTS TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING ALOFT WHILE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SNOW TO BRIEFLY
CHANGE TO FREEZING DRIZZLE WHILE TIMING OF THIS DRYING ALOFT
LOOKS TO COINCIDE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE
FREEZING. THEREFORE, HAVE STUCK WITH RAIN OR SNOW WORDING, BUT
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS TODAY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY
FREEZING DRIZZLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
PROMINENT UPPER AND MID LEVEL JET SPANS ACROSS THE CONUS MID
WEEK WHICH WILL HASTEN TRANSPORT OF DISTURBANCES EASTWARD. THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE IS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A HIGHER DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY FOR NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO ITS ORIGIN AND
HOW ITS MANIPULATED EASTWARD.
PARENT LOW WILL BE IN AN EDDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN JET TO THE SOUTH. THIS POCKET OF
RELATIVELY SLOWER FLOW WILL TEND TO SHEAR THE SYSTEM INTO TWO
AS THE JET IS QUICK TO ACCELERATE THE SOUTHERN HALF. THIS PIECE
HAS BEEN MODELED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS PART IS LIKELY AS IT QUICKLY TRAVERSES
EAST. IT WILL HAVE DECENT JET DYNAMICS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
SYNOPTIC LIFT, RESULTING IN A SIZABLE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION.
MODERATE IVT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SHOULD ALSO AID IN THE
MAGNITUDE OF PRECIP, WITH 24 HR NBM MEAN OF AROUND 0.75" INTO
THE NORTHEAST. WITH THE STORM BEING PROGRESSIVE, LOCATIONS WILL
NEED TO MAXIMIZE DURATION UNDER THE BAND OF PRECIP TO SEE BULK
OF ACCUMULATION, AND POSITIONING OF THIS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.
AS THIS SYSTEM IS PUSHING EAST, NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL STILL
BE IN COOL AND DRY NW FLOW. THIS CAN QUICKLY WHITTLE AWAY
WEAKENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION, LIMITED THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. GFS TRENDS OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS HAVE SHOWN THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A FURTHER SOUTH
TRAJECTORY KEEPING THE CWA MOSTLY DRY IN THE WED/WED NIGHT
PERIOD. ECMWF AND CANADIAN GUIDANCE HAS HELD ON TO A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK WITH QPF VALUES AROUND 0.10" TO 0.40". IN
CLUSTER ANALYSIS, SNOWIER SOLUTIONS CWA-WIDE RESULT FROM GREATER
RIDGING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THAT DISPLACES AND WEAKENS
PREVAILING NW FLOW INTO NNE. THERE IS A MINORITY OF CLUSTER
WEIGHTING THAT SUGGESTS STRONGER TROUGHING TO SUPPLY DRY AIR TO
THE REGION. THIS PROVES A WIDE SPREAD OF OVER HALF AN INCH
LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR MOST OF THE SOUTHERN CWA PER THE NBM.
THE GOING FORECAST CALLS FOR WHATS MOST PROBABLE AT THE TIME: A
GREATER PORTION OF PRECIP OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON VS. THE NORTH. TEMPS THROUGH THE COLUMN
SHOULD BE COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW, BUT SFC TEMPS MAY BE WELL IN
THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD
TO A ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE SHIFTING TO SNOW OVERNIGHT.
LATE WEEK, ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. HOW THIS LOW INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER
RAPIDLY MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL DETERMINE LONGEVITY OF
THE NEXT ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS WELL AS INTENSITY. FOR
NOW THERE ARE A LOT OF POSSIBLE OUTCOMES RESULTING IN LOW
CONFIDENCE, BUT CONSENSUS IS WINTRY PRECIP COULD BRING SLICK
TRAVEL TO THE REGION.
AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR PREVAILS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY, BUT
CEILINGS WILL TREND TO BKN/OVC FROM 06Z TO 15Z. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT NEW HAMPSHIRE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AT LEB AND HIE AT THIS TIME.
CEILINGS SCATTER MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING OVC MONDAY
NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT -TUESDAY: CIGS THICKEN AND LOWER WITH MVFR LIKELY
BY AROUND 06Z. LIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 15Z MAY BRIEFLY BRING
ABOUT LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS LEADING TO ANY SNOW SHOWERS
CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS.
TUESDAY NIGHT: CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE MVFR CIGS
AND -SHSN CONTINUE TO IMPACT KHIE.
WEDNESDAY AND WED NIGHT: MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE INTO THE LATTER PART
OF WED AS SN MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
HOW FAR NORTH SN MAKES IT IN THE FORECAST AREA, WITH IFR VIS
INITIALLY POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS.
THURSDAY AND THURS NIGHT: SN DECREASES IN COVERAGE WITH
POTENTIAL TREND TO VFR INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY: ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW WHILE
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME RANGE IS LOW.
MARINE
WINDS GENERALLY STAY BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS
WEEK SYSTEMS CROSS THE NORTHEAST. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER WEAK STORM PASSES TO THE SOUTH
BRINGING INCREASED NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PALMER/CORNWELL/SCHROETER
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