751
FXUS61 KGYX 211136
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
636 AM EST SAT DEC 21 2024
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES OFFSHORE. AN ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND WITH WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS WINDCHILLS. AFTER A DRY MONDAY, MORE LIGHT SNOW WILL
ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FROM A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
640 AM UPDATE... ASOS AND WEBCAMS INDICATE THAT LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DESPITE LITTLE RADAR
SUPPORT GIVEN OVERSHOOTING. AS A RESULT, EXPANDED BOTH THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF POPS AND EXTENDED THEIR RESIDENCE TIME GIVEN
OVERNIGHT TRENDS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON
TRACK.
PREVIOUSLY...
NORTHEAST RADAR MOSAIC EARLY THIS SATURDAY MORNING SHOWS A
REDEVELOPING AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT IS GRADUALLY MOVING
EASTWARD OVER NH AND FAR WESTERN ME. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A PASSING H5 S/WV TROUGH AXIS THAT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST LATER
TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS AREA OF LIGHT SNOW IS NOT BEING
HANDLED WELL BY LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND THEREFORE USED
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. A FRESH
COATING TO PERHAPS LOCALLY 1" OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AS THIS
CROSSES. FURTHER TO THE EAST LIGHT TO AT TIMES MODERATE SNOW
CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID- COAST AND DOWNEAST ME AND THIS WILL
ALSO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ACROSS THESE REGIONS STORM
TOTAL SNOW OF SEVERAL INCHES IS LIKELY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER
TODAY BUT A RATHER STRONG PGF WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 30 MPH.
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH
OCCASIONAL SNOW FLURRIES/SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 ACROSS THE NORTH TO NEAR
30 SOUTH BUT WINDCHILLS WILL BE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.
SNOW SHOWERS END TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
EITHER SIDE OF ZERO AREAWIDE. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDCHILLS
TO FALL TO 5-10 BELOW ZERO SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH 15-20
BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH WITH COLDER READINGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS THEMSELVES. THESE VALUES ARE CLOSE TO OUR NEW COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AND THIS WILL THEREFORE NEED TO BE
WATCHED.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR LIGHTER WINDS. DESPITE THIS, IT WILL
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR MOST
LOCATIONS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE NORTH AND TEENS ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
UPDATE...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE 01Z NBM. CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW CURRENTLY REMAINS QUITE
GOOD FOR CHRISTMAS EVE, WITH LOOSE TIMING BEING MAINLY IN THE
MORNING BASED ON A MULTI-GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
PREVIOUSLY...
THE LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO CREST OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING,
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE A FRESH SNOWPACK. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL DROP TO ZERO TO 10 BELOW IN THE NORTH WITH SINGLE DIGITS IN
THE SOUTH.
ANOTHER DRY AND MILDER DAY WILL FOLLOW ON MONDAY. A SOUTHWEST FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF EXITING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW
FOR CHILLY, BUT MILDER TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IT WILL BE PLENTY COLD
FOR AN ALL SNOW SITUATION. 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS AND LATEST
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF PLOWABLE SNOW ON THIS
BUSY TRAVEL DAY. WILL CONTINUE TO DISCUSS IN OUR LATEST DSS PACKAGES.
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD NEXT WEEK LOOKS RELATIVELY DRY. HOWEVER, WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WHICH MAY REDEVELOPS
OFF THE COASTLINE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
MORNING, BRINGING SOME LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS... ESPECIALLY AT
KRKD. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED LATER TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
THEN LIKELY ON SUNDAY. NO LLWS IS ANTICIPATED.
LONG TERM...LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE THIS MORNING BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE MARITIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 30 KTS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW
GUSTS OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS NEARING 35 KTS. SEAS OF 3-6 FT CAN BE
EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY.
FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
LONG TERM...A NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WILL KEEP WINDS ABOVE SCA
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL EASE INTO NEXT
WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
NEAR TERM...TUBBS
SHORT TERM...TUBBS
LONG TERM...CANNON/EKSTER
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