881
FXUS61 KGYX 060647
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
147 AM EST FRI FEB 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW TOTALS HAVE COME DOWN A BIT ON THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE
SYSTEM, BUT HAVE HELD STEADY IN THE AREAS THAT WILL SEE
ENHANCEMENT DUE TO AN INVERTED TROUGH. WHILE THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF LOCALLY HIGH AMOUNTS NEARING 4 INCHES, THE
PLACEMENT IS STILL UNCERTAIN SO I HELD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ACCUMULATING SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BRING ABOUT SLIPPERY TRAVEL IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWESTERN
MAINE. GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS, WITH
SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ON THE NEW HAMPSHIRE
SEACOAST AND INTO COASTAL YORK COUNTY.
2. A FRIGID AIRMASS WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO OVERNIGHT
ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL LIKE THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO FROM THE COAST TO THE FOOTHILLS, AND 20 TO 30 BELOW
ZERO FOR THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED IN REGARDS TO FORECAST THINKING FOR
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST AND TAKES A TRACK EASTWARD OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER, A
TRAILING SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN AN INVERTED TROUGH FORMING AND REACHING BACK INTO
OUR AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE BULK OF ACCUMULATION IS GOING TO
COME FROM THIS INVERTED TROUGH AS OVERALL THE SHORTWAVE AND
FRONT ARE GOING TO BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH PWATS LESS THAN
0.25". TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS,
AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THEY TOP OUT IN THE 20S SO THERE
WILL BE A FLUFF FACTOR THAT AIDS IN THESE ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS
DESPITE THE LACK OF MOISTURE. FOR THIS REASON, I THINK THE NBM
IS REASONABLE WITH ITS ACCUMULATIONS ALTHOUGH I DID SMOOTH THE
QPF OUTPUT TO GET MORE REALISTIC COVERAGE. AREAS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND MUCH OF WESTERN MAINE ARE GOING TO SEE A COATING TO
MAYBE A HALF INCH, WITH THE KENNEBEC VALLEY MAYBE GETTING
BLANKED COMPLETELY AS THE FRONT LOOKS TO WASH OUT AS IT PUSHES
EAST. MID-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE LIFT
AROUND THE TERRAIN SO NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE COULD STILL SQUEEZE
OUT 1-2 INCHES. CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD SEE 1-2 INCHES AS
WELL AS THE INVERTED TROUGH AXIS LOOKS TO REACH BACK INTO THIS
AREA. SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE LOOK TO BE
THE LOCATIONS THAT END UP IN THE AREA OF BEST ENHANCEMENT AND
LIKELY SEE TOTALS IN THE 2-3 INCH RANGE. DEPENDING ON EXACTLY
HOW THE TROUGH SETS UP, THE NEW HAMPSHIRE SEACOAST AND MAYBE
EVEN COASTAL YORK COUNTY COULD SEE TOTALS PUSHING THE 4 INCH
MARK.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS
POISED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, WITH AN ARCTIC AIRMASS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ADDITION TO THIS
ARCTIC AIR WILL ALLOW FOR A VERY CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING. WIND CHILLS
MAY BE AS COLD AS -20F TO -30F ACROSS WESTERN NH AND INTERIOR
MAINE. AN EXTREME COLD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO STAY MIXED ON SUNDAY, AS A PRESSURE
GRADIENT HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
ANOTHER VERY CHILLY START TO THE DAY ON MONDAY, WHERE WIND CHILL
READINGS OF -20F TO
-30F ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...CEILINGS THICKEN OVERNIGHT AND LOWER
THROUGH THIS MORNING. MOST TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR OR NEAR MVFR
AFTER 18Z TODAY. SNOW HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT MOST TERMINALS, BUT LEB COULD SEE IT A LITTLE EARLIER.
IT SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH AT THE ONSET TO MAINTAIN MVFR
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK:
TONIGHT-SATURDAY: LIGHT SNOW OVERSPREADS THE REGION BRINGING
ABOUT IFR VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT: IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SAT
EVENING, WITH HIE STILL SEEING MVFR CIGS. NW GUSTS TO 25 KTS. NO
SIG WX.
MONDAY: NW WINDS SLACKEN, GUSTS TO 20 KTS. VFR. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: VFR. NO SIG WX.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AND LIGHT FREEZING
SPRAY.
NORTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. WINDS LOWER TO SCA LEVELS BY MONDAY AND CONTINUE TO
SLACKEN TO BELOW SCA LEVELS BY TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 2-3FT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD IN THE BAYS, WITH 4-6FT SEAS IN
THE OPEN WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MEZ007>009.
NH...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NHZ001>003-005-007-011.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...BARON/PALMER
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