178
FXUS61 KGYX 211442
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1042 AM EDT THU SEP 21 2023
SYNOPSIS
A SEASONABLY DRY AND MILD PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WITH SOME OVERNIGHT VALLEY FOG. LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WILL SPREAD MOISTURE
NORTH THIS WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS. A RETURN TO A DRY
PATTERN WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
10:30AM UPDATE... FOG ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY HAS
MIXED OUT AT THIS POINT WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. MINIMAL UPDATES WERE NEEDED JUST TO BRING
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
715AM UPDATE...JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO MORNING TEMP TREND. ALSO
THE INTRODUCTION OF A HIGH RIP RIP CURRENT STATEMENT FOR THE
COAST SOUTH OF THE MIDCOAST THROUGH SUNSET. NWPS AND WNAWAVE
BOTH BRING 5FT WAVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AMID
LONG PERIOD SWELL OF 13 TO 15 SECONDS FROM DISTANT NIGEL. THIS
WOULD BRING MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK TO LOCAL BEACHES.
FOR AN OTHERWISE NICE DAY, SWIMMERS SHOULD HEED LIFEGUARD
SIGNAGE FOR ANY RIPS THAT DEVELOP.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A SUNNY AND CALM WEATHER DAY EXPECTED THURSDAY. WITH JUST A BIT
OF MOISTURE REMAINING IN THE LOW LEVELS, SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT
IS LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPS TOP OUT AROUND NORMAL TODAY, RIGHT AROUND 70. THE
CALM CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD.
ONE ITEM OF CONCERN WILL BE GROWING SWELL NEAR THE BEACHES
TODAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN MODERATE TO HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
CLOUDS DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET, SETTING UP A CLEAR AND
CALM NIGHT. THIS WILL AGAIN PROMOTE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT
ALSO THE CHANCE FOR FROST IN SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS NORTHERN NH
AND FAR WESTERN ME. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW LOW
TEMPS WILL GET, ESPECIALLY WITH VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING, BUT LOWS
DIPPING TO AROUND 35 TO 37 CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF COOS AND EVEN OXFORD COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND FRIDAY MORNING, WITH NEARLY A SIMILAR DAY
AS TODAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURES COOL TEMPS IN THE 40S, BUT NOT AS COOL
TEMPS AS THURS NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NH AND WESTERN ME.
THIS IS DUE TO THE EXITING HIGH PRES PROVIDING MORE IN THE WAY
OF LOW LEVEL MIXING AND MOISTURE RETURN. VALLEY FOG IS AGAIN
LIKELY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME
DISCREPANCY WITH A POTENTIAL SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. PLENTY OF
DEEP MOISTURE WILL EXIT THE TROPICS AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRESSURE
REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE SATURDAY WHILE A SECOND
AREA OF RAINFALL PASSES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THIS EASTERN TRACK
WOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE MOISTURE IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND OFF
THE COASTLINE.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP THE COASTAL LOW AS ONE
COHERENT SYSTEM, NAMELY THE CANADIAN RUN. THIS WOULD BRING THE
PRECIPITATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN ANY CASE, THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A SHARP SOUTH TO NORTH GRADIENT IN THE PRECIPITATION FIELDS AND
IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THAT WILL BE.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH
HIGH PWATS JUST OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE, RAIN WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE HEAVY, NAMELY OVER SOUTHERNMOST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
FAR SOUTHWEST MAINE AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND PERHAPS INTO PORTIONS
OF TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE REGION.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR LARGELY EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME TODAY AND
FRIDAY. SCT CU LIKELY DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFR TO IFR VIS RESTRICTIONS AT
PLACES LIKE HIE AND LEB, WITH MORE INTERMITTENT RESTRICTIONS
FOR CON OR AUG.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY LIKELY ACROSS
THE TERMINALS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BRINGS
THE THREAT OF RESTRICTIONS IN RAIN PRIMARILY TO MHT/PSM AND
POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS CON/PWM/RKD THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW WITH VFR HOLDING FURTHER NORTH. A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A FEW AFTERNOON RAIN
SHOWERS MONDAY POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ISOLATED RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS TODAY AS WAVE HEIGHTS INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY TO 5 TO 6 FT. THESE CARRY THROUGH THE EVENING,
EVENTUALLY SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 4 FT FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...QUIET CONDITION ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOW PRESSURE
MOST LIKELY PASSING SOUTH OF THE WATERS WHICH MAY NECESSITATE SCAS
AS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS WEAKEN AND
BACK TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION TO END THE PERIOD MONDAY WITH
WAVES SUBSIDING.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MEZ023>026.
NH...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154-
170-172-174.
NEAR TERM...CORNWELL/THUNBERG
SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...CANNON
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