920
FXUS61 KGYX 271834
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
234 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
2. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR WEATHER WITH LOWER HUMIDITY OVER THE
WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MID WEEK AS A
STATIONARY FRONT SETS UP NEAR NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN ADVANCING CIRRUS
SHIELD MOVING ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST WITH SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL. THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS UP TO
AROUND 500 J/KG OF MU/MLCAPE ALONG WITH MID-LVL LAPSE RATES
AROUND 5.5 C/KM. DESPITE THIS, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS RATHER
WEAK AT AROUND 25 KTS AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING FOR
ASCENT SHOULD PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THAT BEING SAID, A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNSET, WITH
PERHAPS SOME CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS.
SHOWERS WILL WANE TONIGHT BUT CLOUDS WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN
PLACE WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY INTO THE 60S. FOG
IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP, BRINGING REDUCED VISIBILITY.
FOG WILL LIFT FRIDAY MORNING WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALLOWING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WHICH COMBINED WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOWS INTO THE 40S AND 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S. HIGH PRESSURE SINKS SOUTH SUNDAY AS A TROUGH SWINGS
ACROSS ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRING A CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL REMAIN DRY
WILL MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S NORTH THE MID
80S SOUTH WITH STEADY WSW WINDS ALLOWING FOR MID 80S NEAR THE
COAST.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND STALL NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING. FLOW ALOFT
WILL TREND TOWARDS ZONAL THROUGH MID WEEK ALLOWING THE COLD FRONT
BECOME STATIONARY NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE POSITION OF THIS STATIONARY
FRONT WILL EFFECT TEMPERATURES WITH ENSEMBLES FAVORING THE FORECAST
AREA TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES ON MONDAY. MODEL SPREAD IN
PRECIPITATION INCREASES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACK WEST TO EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE LATEST NBM
BRINGS 40 TO 60 PERCENT POPS DURING THIS TIME WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH MODEST PROBABILITIES THAT PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN INCH OF QPF BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 04Z FRI, ALTHOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED
SHRA/-TSRA MAY BRING TEMPO RESTRICTIONS. FG WILL LIKELY RETURN
TONIGHT TO MOST TAF SITES, BRINGING IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR FRI MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY, ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAY BRING TEMPO
RESTRICTIONS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE ACROSS ME TAF SITES. WINDS
WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 5-15
KTS.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF VALLEY FOG.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: CIGS AND PERIODS OF SHRA WILL LIKELY BRING
AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
MARINE
S WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10-20 KTS WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT, HIGHEST
OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS. MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI
MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY AND SINKS SOUTH
OF THE WATERS SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE WATERS INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/SCHROETER
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