229  
FXUS61 KGYX 180221  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
1021 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT BRINGING  
GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF  
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH  
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BOTH SATURDAY AND MONDAY, WITH SOME SNOW  
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURE WILL BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH  
BETWEEN NORMAL AND BELOW NORMAL.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
UPDATE...  
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS,  
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MESOSCALE MODELS (GYX RADAR UNDER  
MAINTENANCE). ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT EARLIER THIS  
EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. WINDS HAVE  
DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT POST-FRONTAL.  
 
A LULL WILL CONTINUE IN THE WIND FIELDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT IN MOST  
AREAS, EXCEPT FOR WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THEREAFTER, WINDS BEGIN  
TO INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT INCREASE AS THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO  
OUR EAST.  
 
GRADIENT REALIGNS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER LATER TONIGHT AND SHORTLY  
AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG COLD AIR  
ADVECTION AND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALLOW  
FOR AN INCREASED GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND HIGHER MIXING  
VALUES. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR LATER TONIGHT AND  
LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS ON THURSDAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE  
ADVISORIES TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF COOS AND GRAFTON COUNTIES  
WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OUR MAXIMUM WIND GUST  
FORECASTS.  
 
OTHERWISE, JUST MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TEMPERATURE, DEW POINT AND  
CLOUD COVER FORECAST. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE  
LOWER TO MID 30S BY MORNING ALONG THE COAST, ALTHOUGH A FROST IS  
NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE ONGOING WINDS. A HARD FREEZE EXPECTED  
TOMORROW NIGHT ALL ZONES.  
 
PREV DISC...  
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE  
REGION TONIGHT. AS OF 3PM WINDS THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAIN WERE  
STILL WEST SOUTHWEST HOWEVER THE FIRST SURGE OF COLD AIR IS  
ALIGNED FROM THE ADIRONDACKS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND WILL  
MOVE INTO THE REGION AROUND SUNSET. AS IT DOES EXPECT WINDS TO  
SHIFT TO WEST NORTHWEST WITH CONTINUED GUSTS.  
 
CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY BOTH DUE TO THE FRONT ITSELF AS WELL AS  
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS IS ONGOING THROUGH UPSTATE NEW YORK AND  
THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETERS SHOW A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR  
THESE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS TO PROPAGATE WITH THE FRONT INTO THE  
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
SCATTERED SNOW/GRAUPEL SHOWERS. WHILE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES  
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED, HAVE NOT MENTIONED THUNDER AS THE  
PREDOMINATE CHARACTERISTIC WILL BE MORE GENERALIZED SHOWERS.  
 
AS THE COLD AIR ADVANCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AND  
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER  
WITH UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AT MANIWAKI SHOWING THE MIXED LAYER  
EXTENDING TO AROUND 7000FT. THIS SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT  
TO MIX DOWN 35KT GUST THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION AND THUS A WIND  
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BUT THE CT RIVER VALLEY WHERE  
THE MOUNTAINS WILL SHELTER THE MORE POPULATED VALLEY LOCATIONS,  
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGETOPS WILL SEE A FEW OF THE HIGHER GUSTS.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT REACHING LOWS NEAR  
FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST. WHILE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL  
ACTIVE IN A FEW ZONES, THE WIND WILL PREVENT ANY FROST FORMATION AND  
THUS NO FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
THE GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING  
HOURS, BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND SUBSIDING IN THE AFTERNOON  
AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES. THE WINDS  
WILL CALM OVERNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP FURTHER UNDER  
CLEAR SKIES.  
 
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY EXPECT TO SEE SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO  
FAR THIS SEASON WITH LOW IN THE TEENS NORTH TO THE UPPER 20S ALL THE  
WAY TO THE COAST. THIS WILL END THE GROWING SEASON FOR THE REMAINING  
ZONES AND EXPECT A FREEZE WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE +PNA PATTERN OVER NOAM, AT INTO  
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL MEAN GENERAL TROUGHING AND COOLER  
CONDITIONS OVER NEW ENGLAND, ALTHOUGH INDIVIDUAL TROUGH WILL  
MOVE QUICKLY. THIS WILL MEAN SOME SEE-SAWING OF TEMPS THROUGH  
THIS PERIOD VARYING FROM NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL  
BE A FEW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS, MAINLY RAIN, EXCEPT FOR SOME SNOW  
SHOWERS IN THE MTNS, BUT NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENTS ARE  
EXPECTED. THE EURO'S BEEN HINTING AT A CLOSED LOW IN THE  
VICINITY AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT HAS PUSHED THAT TO  
LATER NEXT WEEK IN ITS LATEST 12Z RUN.  
 
STARTING FRIDAY, SHOULD SEE A DECENT SW FLOW DEVELOP, WHICH WILL  
BRING HIGHS BACK INTO THE 50S IN MOST PLACES, AND RIGHT AROUND  
NORMAL. THE SW FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY AS CLOSING 500 MB  
LOW TRACKS TO OUR N, AND PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE  
DAY OR SAT NIGHT, WHICH COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. HIGHS SAT  
COULD APPROACH 60 IN THE WARMER SPOTS. COLDER AIR MOVES IN ONCE  
AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS MAINLY IN THE  
40S /BUT MAY APPROACH 50 NEAR THE COAST AND IN SRN NH/. A WEAK  
WAVE MOVES THROUGH AROUND TUESDAY AND COULD PRODUCE MORE  
SHOWERS.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT ALL  
TERMINALS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES HOLD. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE  
CLOUD COVER REMAINS MOSTLY AT VFR AND ABOVE HOWEVER A FEW SNOW  
SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO MVFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO  
GUST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING.  
CONDITIONS WILL CALM WITH VFR CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH COULD  
SEE SOME TEMP FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS SAT AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM...GALE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER ALL OF THE COASTAL  
WATERS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION.  
HREF PROBABILITIES INDICATE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALE FORCE WINDS AND  
HAVE INCLUDED THE BAYS. WINDS WILL LIKELY SUBSIDE BELOW GALE LATE  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
LONG TERM...SCA MAY BE NEEDED IN SW FLOW LATE FRIDAY INTO  
SATURDAY, AND AGAIN IN NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
DUE TO AN UNFORESEEN PROBLEM WITH THE PART ON ORDER, THE KGYX  
RADAR WILL BE DOWN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY. PLEASE SEE  
KBOX, KCBW, KENX, AND KCXX FOR COVERAGE OVER THE GYX FORECAST  
AREA.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR MEZ007>009-  
012>014-018>028.  
NH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NHZ001>006-  
008>010-012>015.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150>154.  
 

 
 

 
JC  
 
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