245
FXUS61 KGYX 052251
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
651 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LIMITED THUNDER CHANCES TO JUST THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
OTHERWISE, PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
BEFORE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WANES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
2. WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WITH THE LOSS OF PEAK HEATING AND AN OVERALL MARGINAL DISPLAY OF
CAPE OR DEEPER INSTABILITY, THE LINE OF SHOWERS NOW COMBING
THROUGH CENTRAL NH AND INTO SOUTHERN ME WILL END THE THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THE EVENING. HAVE ALSO REMOVED
MENTION OF THUNDER PAST 8PM THIS EVENING.
BACKGROUND WINDS, INCLUDING GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH, REMAIN FOR
ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO BEFORE MIXING ENDS FOR THE DAY. IN ADDITION,
MARINE AIR HAS STEADILY PUSHED INLAND, THUS LIMITED WIND GUSTS
ACROSS THE MIDCOAST AND LOWER KENNEBEC VALLEY. IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY TONIGHT, BUT NOT NEARLY AS GUSTY AS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
MONITOR THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE MIDCOAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF RAIN PASS THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WITH MORE
ORGANIZATION AND STEADY RAINFALL EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A HEAVIER, STEADY RAIN MOVES IN FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE EMBEDDED
NON-SEVERE STORMS, FOR THE MOST PART IT LOOKS LIKE A STEADY,
WETTING RAIN. RAIN TOTALS BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY 1-1.5 INCHES IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH AS LITTLE AS 0.3 TO 0.6 NEAR THE
COAST AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED
OTHER THAN VERY MINOR ISSUES OVER POOR DRAINING AREAS.
A FAIRLY COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS INTO THE
WEEKEND, THOUGH TIMING OF ANY ADDITIONAL WEATHER SYSTEMS THIS
WEEKEND IS STILL PRETTY UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THIS AFTERNOON...
GENERALLY VFR. STORMS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS LIKELY AROUND 19-0Z,
BUT AT SOUTHERN TERMINALS JUST A FEW SHOWERS. S WIND 10-15 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT.
TONIGHT...
VFR MOST AREAS, BUT MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR DEVELOPING LATER
TOWARD 12Z. BEST CHANCE OF IFR IS RKD. S WIND AROUND 10 KTS.
WEDNESDAY...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH IFR AND RAIN
DEVELOPING. S WIND 10-15 KTS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
IMPROVING FROM W TO E WITH MOST AREAS BECOMING VFR. WINDS
BECOMING W/NW 5-10 KTS.
THURSDAY TO SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR. GENERALLY W WINDS, 5-15 KTS.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO WED NIGHT, WITH GALES LIKELY
TONIGHT FOR OUTER WATERS. FROM THU ON, WINDS/SEAS GENERALLY LESS
THAN SCA LEVELS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ180-182.
DISCUSSION...FOISY/CORNWELL
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