072
FXUS61 KGYX 071022 AAA
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
622 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR WEATHER TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER INTO MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE FRONTS APPROACHING THE AREA BRINGING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE BUT THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RESULT IN SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND THRU THE
AFTERNOON. THE COAST WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
TONIGHT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION
ON THE NOSE OF DEVELOPING LLJ AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CAM
GUIDANCE DOES PERCOLATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU SOUTHERN NH
AND ALONG THE WESTERN ME COAST. SO I DO KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POP IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS FRI MORNING.
FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY FRI AFTERNOON. FOR STARTERS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOCAL
AREA...CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. WE ALSO
HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FLOW WILL BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT INCREASING
QUICKLY WITH HEIGHT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS LIKELY TO BE
INSTABILITY...AS DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK CAPE BUT STRUGGLING TO GET
UPDRAFTS MUCH ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. NOT A GREAT SET UP FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDER...BUT THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE
LIGHTNING. PLENTY OF DRY AIR...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE
MID LEVELS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS IF THEY
DO FORM. SO MORE OF CONDITIONAL THREAT BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. I HAVE BLENDED IN LATEST CAM GUIDANCE...WHICH KEEPS
POP GENERALLY ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT
UNCERTAINTY I HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY ENHANCED WORDING TO THE
THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN ME.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY... WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL BY MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY THERE WILL
BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH HUMIDITY INCREASING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NEAR
ZONAL FLOW MAY BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THEY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREAFTER, THE 500 MB
PATTERN LOOKS TO AMPLIFY WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. OVERALL, THERE ARE NO SIGNALS FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAT
WITH PRECIPITATION AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL DURING THE SATURDAY TO
TUESDAY TIME FRAME AND SOME SIGNS OF A WETTER PATTERN FROM THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WNW OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FUNNELING INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE INCOMING DRY AIRMASS WILL
HAVE PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES AT KGYX, WHICH WOULD PUT THIS
BELOW THE BOTTOM 10 PERCENT MOVING AVERAGE BASED ON SPC SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY AT KGYX. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT
WITH A MIXED LAYER APPROACHING 800 MB. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE
LOWERED DEWPOINTS VS THE NBM. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR AMPLE
SUNSHINE AND THERE WILL ENOUGH OF AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT TO KEEP THE
SEA BREEZE AT BAY UNTIL AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO OVERHEAD
SATURDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL
BRING MANY AREAS DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR LOWS WITH LOW 50S ALONG THE
COASTAL PLAIN. FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OFFSHORE, WHILE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO HOLD
OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF FRONTS LOOK TO APPROACH THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THESE
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND WHETHER THEY WILL BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO
BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GIVEN THE TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY STUCK WITH THE NBM FOR POPS
WHICH BRINGS CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT WITH
SUNRISE THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL FRI AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY NORTH OF PWM. CANNOT RULE OUT TSRA FOR
AUG AND RKD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION.
LONG TERM...VFR WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BY THE AFTERNOON. FLOW
MORE OR LESS REMAINS SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE
FRI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER
THE WEEKEND HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE
NW. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE TURNING ONSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT
OF THE SW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SE
CANADA AND HIGHS PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHROETER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page