583
FXUS61 KGYX 010626
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
226 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LOW IMPACT OVER OUR AREA THIS MORNING
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES THUS FAR.
KEY MESSAGES
1. TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A PROLONGED HEAT EVENT THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE HEAT PEAKS ON
THURSDAY, WITH ONLY A GRADUAL COOL DOWN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND. NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 70S OFFER LITTLE RELIEF, AND
RESULT IN ACCUMULATED HEAT STRESS.
2. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
PLACEMENT, TIMING, AND COVERAGE OF STORMS REMAINS VARIABLE WHILE SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PORTIONS OF NH AND A MARGINAL RISK
ELSEWHERE FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON THURSDAY.
3. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXTREME HEAT BREAKS DOWN LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR DOWN TREND IN TEMPERATURES.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FOR
THE PROLONGED HEAT EVENT THAT BEGINS TODAY AND LASTS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY. ALL HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN IN TACK FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. MOST, BUT NOT
ALL 00Z CAM SOLUTIONS KEEP THE AREA LARGELY FREE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THROUGH THE PEAK HEATING OF THE DAY. HOWEVER, THE 00Z
HRRR DOES SHOW SOME ELEVATED WILD FIRE SMOKE MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING THAT MAY ACT TO DIM SOLAR
INSOLATION. NEVERTHELESS, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. A SOUTHERLY ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
COOLING MARINE INFLUENCES NEAR THE COAST, MAINLY FROM CAPE
PORPOISE AND POINTS NORTHWARD.
CAMS GENERALLY SHOW LIMITED CONVECTION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY,
SO AGAIN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST THINKING FOR
TEMPERATURES, DEW POINTS, AND HEAT INDICES. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS
TO BE THE PEAK OF THE HEAT WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING IN EXCESS
OF 110F. WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT LEADING
TO LITTLE RELIEF FROM ANY SEA BREEZES.
THE RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY THAT MAY
ALLOW FOR A FRONT TO SINK SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS FRONT WON'T
BRING ANY REAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH A WESTERLY
GRADIENT WOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER MIXING AND A SLIGHT DOWN TREND
IN DEW POINTS. STILL, IT WILL BE HOT AND HUMID AND THE WEST
WINDS WILL INHIBIT AND SEA BREEZES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
WITH LOWS STILL IN THE 70S ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DOES PASS THROUGH, A QUICK DROP INTO THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S WOULD BE EXPECTED. THE LONG DURATION OF THE HEAT
EVENT MAKES IT MORE IMPACTFUL THAN SOME OF THE SINGLE HOT DAYS
WE'VE SEEN IN RECENT YEARS. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH
BEGINS TO HAVE MORE INFLUENCE ON NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LATEST SATELLITE PRESENTATION SHOWS MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES ROUNDING A RIDGE STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE NORTHEAST. CAMS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THESE
FEATURES AND THEIR EVOLUTION WITH EVEN SOME SUBSTANTIAL RUN TO
RUN VARIABILITY IN THE HRRR FOR A MCS MOVING INTO UPSTATE NY
EARLY THIS MORNING. CAMS GENERALLY SUGGEST SOME CONVECTION WILL
CROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND 8-10 AM THIS MORNING, MAINLY FROM
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS COASTAL SOUTHWEST MAINE. THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS LOW WHILE SOME EARLY
MORNING THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MAIN STORY REMAINS THE SAME TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE
WILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH CAPE WITH POCKETS OF DECENT SHEAR THAT
WOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE LACK OF SURFACE
FORCING AND MID LEVEL SUPPORT CONTINUES TO YIELD LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE AMONGST CAM GUIDANCE, FOR AT LEAST THE DAY TIME
HOURS TODAY. THERE ARE AGAIN HINTS AMONGST CAM GUIDANCE THAT AN
MCS MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING, BUT
GIVEN THE POOR HANDLING OF FEATURES OUT THERE NOW CONFIDENCE IS
LOW. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS UPSTATE NY INTO NH AND A
MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE FOR THIS POTENTIAL CONVECTION THAT
COULD ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT THURSDAY
WHILE CAMS GENERALLY DEPICT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STORMS. A FRONT
SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH CANADA COULD BRING BETTER FORCING FOR
STORMS LATE THURSDAY WITH 00Z CAMS CATCHING ON TO THIS IDEA. SPC
HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FOR
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
HEIGHT FALLS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BRING ABOUT A DOWN
TREND IN TEMPERATURES INTO MONDAY. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN UPPER 80S TO 90S
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THE HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO SUPPORT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WHILE THE TIMING AND DETAILS ARE HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS TIME RANGE. BY MONDAY, RELIEF FROM THE HEAT APPEARS
LIKELY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT...
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF RESTRICTIONS WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WILL BE BETWEEN
06Z AND 12Z AT HIE AND LEB. MAINLY VFR THE REST OF TODAY
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH BETTER CHANCES AT NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LEAD
TO BRIEF IFR OR MVFR RESTRICTIONS. SOME MARINE FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT RKD THIS. MORE WIDESPREAD FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-SUNDAY: GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT IN FOG, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD IT GETS IS
UNCERTAIN.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME TODAY GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING
TO WESTERLY BY FRIDAY. WINDS GENERALLY STAY BELOW 25 KTS WHILE A
FEW WAVES TO AROUND 5FT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
WATERS LATE TODAY. WINDS AND SEAS THE STAY BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS AT LONG TERM CLIMATE SITES...
JULY 1ST 2ND 3RD
AUG 92 (1971) 93 (1963) 94 (2002)
PWM 93 (1971) 98 (1941) 95 (2002)
CON 99 (1913) 98 (1966) 102 (1966)
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
MEZ007>009.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR MEZ012-018>020-023-033.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR MEZ013-014-
021-022-024>026.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR MEZ013-014-021-022-024>028.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 10 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
MEZ023>028.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
NHZ001>003.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM 11 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NHZ004>015.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NHZ013-
014.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HARGROVE/SCHROETER
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