940
FXUS61 KGYX 031847
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
247 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS AND THEN
DURING THE DAY MONDAY OVER PORTIONS OF INTERIOR WESTERN ME.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS (AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW) RETURN TO NORTHERN NH
AND THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
A WARMING TREND THEN STARTS MONDAY WITH BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS
AND A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR WESTERN ME.
2. TUESDAY WILL BE WARM AND BREEZY WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE EVENING NEAR THE CT VALLEY, MOUNTAINS, AND CANADIAN BORDER.
3. A STALLED FRONT WILL BRING CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CENTERED ON
WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE STRONG AND DISTANT COASTAL LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST TO THE
SSE OF NOVA SCOTIA AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THE REST OF TODAY. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35
MPH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA, BUT INSTABILITY
AND A LINGERING MOIST LAYER ALOFT WHILE THE 500MB TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH WILL STILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. WE
SHOULD START SEEING A DECREASE IN CLOUDS EARLY THIS EVENING AS WE
APPROACH SUNSET.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY
BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWS, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NH
AS WELL AS THE WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS (EXCEPT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS) LATE AND TOWARD DAYBREAK. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY CLOUDS MOVE IN AND IF WINDS CAN DROP OFF ENOUGH, THERE
IS A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
PATCHY FROST. THE BETTER CHANCE OF THIS LOOKS TO BE IN THE
NORMALLY COOLER, SHELTERED AREAS OF WESTERN ME.
AS THE SAME SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH ON MONDAY, THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTH WILL HAVE AN ONGOING CHANCE OF SHOWERS (SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN) INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY, BUT THE MOISTURE
PROFILE IS ALSO FAVORABLE ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ME FOOTHILLS, AUGUSTA AND MIDCOAST REGIONS
IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE AND ELSEWHERE, IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY WITH WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25-35 MPH AND PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. WITH GOOD MIXING, WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT OF
+2C TO +5C WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 60S FOR MOST PLACES.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS
WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL TEMPERATURES MILDER AND MOSTLY IN THE 40S FOR LOWS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
ADVECTS WARM AIR INTO THE REGION WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO START
THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL CLIMB TO +10C TO +12C AND WITH
MIXING UP TO 800 MB THIS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO LIMIT SEA BREEZES FROM CASCO BAY SOUTHWARDS, SO EVEN
SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS HERE WILL EXPERIENCE THE WARMTH. BUFKIT
PROFILES SHOW THAT MEAN MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
WILL BE AROUND 30 KTS, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
UPWARDS OF 35 MPH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE FROM A SLOW MOVING FRONT
THAT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY THAT COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND POINTS NORTHWARD.
LATEST NWP GUIDANCE, INCLUDING SOME CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR BUILDING OVER THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THAT WOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. A ROUGH BLEND OF
THE FV3/NAMNEST/RRFS BRINGS AROUND 750-1250 J/KG OF MU CAPE
JUXTAPOSED WITH 35 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE CT VALLEY
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER. TIMING OF
STORMS WILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT TO GET A BETTER IDEA OF
INTENSITY. THE NAMNEST HOLDS STORMS OFF UNTIL AROUND 00Z WHILE
RRFS/FV3 BRINGS STORMS ALL THE WAY TO WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS BY
20Z. DEEP MIXING THAT OCCURS BEFORE STORMS ARRIVE WILL HELP
INCREASE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS THAT WOULD MAKE STRONG WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO ORGANIZE BEFORE
THE LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY WILL
STALL OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG THE FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
WHILE SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN. THE LATEST NBM BRINGS THE BEST
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WEDNESDAY WITH RECENT MODEL RUNS
SUGGESTING THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK OFFSHORE THURSDAY RESULTING IN LOWER RAIN CHANCES THAN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. BROAD TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE
NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND KEEPING LOW SHOWERS CHANCES IN
THE FORECAST WHILE THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE PERIODS OF DRY
WEATHER WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH MONDAY...RKD WILL RETURN TO VFR A LITTLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE VFR PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO GUST TO AROUND 25-30KT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE EASING AROUND 00Z.
MAINLY VFR TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
AT HIE WHERE A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS AND SHOWERS. MOSTLY VFR MONDAY AND BREEZY WITH WESTERLY
WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 KT. CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS NEAR AUG ON MONDAY SO VCSH MAY NEED TO BE ADDED LATER.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: DURING THE DAY MAINLY VFR WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KTS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE NW TO SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE UNLIKELY FROM CON TO AUG AND POINTS SOUTH. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MVFR CIGS LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWER
CHANCES LOW LOW CIGS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST MVFR
THURSDAY WITH A DRYING TREND FRIDAY IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT
AND SEAS BUILD TO OVER 5 FT. THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEPART INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING
WESTERLY, AND THESE WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SCAS LIKELY NEEDED AND POSSIBLY GALES. A COLD FRONT SINKS
THROUGH THE WATERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SHIFTING WINDS OFFSHORE.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/SCHROETER
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