616
FXUS61 KGYX 111337
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
937 AM EDT SAT APR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED SKY COVER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. GUSTY AND NOT AS WARM TODAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOW AN
EXITING COLD FRONT.
2. TURNING WARMER NEXT WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WINDS WILL HAVE ALREADY BECOME NORTHWEST BY DAYBREAK, QUICKLY
SHIFTING FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT. THESE ARE SLATED TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH CROSSES
NEW ENGLAND. MIXING DEEPENS, UP TO 850 OR 800MB, TAPPING INTO
THE BROADENING 30 TO 35 KT WIND FIELD. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE TO
SURFACE GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
THE INCOMING AIRMASS WILL BE DRY, AND RH VALUES SHOULD FALL
INTO THE LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST AND INTERIOR. THE COMBINATION
OF GUSTY WINDS AND LOWERING RH DOES CREATE NEAR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS TOWARDS SOUTHERN NH AND FAR SOUTHERN ME. THIS
COULD BE MAGNIFIED IF SOUTHERN LOCATIONS SKIPPED ON WETTING
RAIN FROM OVERNIGHT.
MOMENTUM TRANSFER SETTLES IN THE EVENING, WITH A LESS BREEZY
NIGHT EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FROM THE SURFACE
COMPLETELY BECOMING CALM, BUT SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY RADIATE
WELL DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH WELL INTO THE 50S ACROSS MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS WHILE AREAS CLOSER TO THE SHORE REMAIN MOSTLY INTO THE
40S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE
COURSE OF THE DAY BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AFTERNOON RH WILL
ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE 20-30% RANGE IN MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS
BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS THAN THOSE OF SATURDAY. A SURFACE WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
BRINGING WITH IT A ROUND OF SHOWERS. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS THE CANADIAN
BORDER WITH PERHAPS UP TO AROUND 0.50" WHILE FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH, GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.10-0.25" IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.
A BRIEF LULL IN SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE WARM FRONT
THROUGH MID-DAY MONDAY BEFORE SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE TOWARDS
THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A FEW SPOTS IN
SOUTHERN NH APPROACHING 70 DEGREES. MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD
WITH LOWS INTO THE 50S AS ANY LINGERING SHOWERS BECOME CONFINED
TO THE MOUNTAINS. A MAINLY DRY AND EVEN WARMER DAY IS LIKELY ON
TUESDAY AS AN H5 S/WV RIDGE AXIS CRESTS OVERHEAD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S APPEAR LIKELY AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF FRONTS CROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO REMAIN ABOVE AVG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR IF NOT ALREADY.
NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS DECREASE IN THE EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY BEFORE
SCATTERED -SHRA AND LOWER CEILINGS OF MVFR-IFR ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT. S WINDS AT 10-15 KTS.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: SCATTERED -SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. S-SW WINDS AT 10-20
KTS.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR EXPECTED BUT SCATTERED -SHRA
POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT: RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DUE TO
LOWER CEILINGS AND -SHRA.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
WINDS SHIFTING NW. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SCA TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. BUT, THE OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION
SHOULD BEGIN TO KNOCK DOWN GREATER WAVE HEIGHTS BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH S FLOW. S-SW WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR GALES
OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE
TUESDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING MAINLY
OUT OF THE S WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS AT TIMES.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/CORNWELL/TUBBS
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