667
FXUS61 KGYX 042011
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
311 PM EST SUN DEC 4 2022
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
BEFORE EXITING OFF THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THIS
FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
NEW ENGLAND TO END THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP NEAR
THE MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
OVERALL A NICE END TO AN EARLY DEC DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT BEGINS
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. CENTER OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL BE
WELL TO THE WEST, SO THIS SHOULD PULL GOOD WARM AIR TO QUICKLY
BEGIN WARMING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
BACK TO TONIGHT, MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BE HIGH CLOUD. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BRIEF JET
ROUNDING BASE OF ELONGATED TROUGH ALOFT. CURRENT SATELLITE PINS
THIS ACROSS CENTRAL NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TOWARDS UPSTATE
NEW YORK, LOWER CLOUDS W/ A PLUME OF GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD CLIP AREAS WEST OF THE WHITE MTNS LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS ONCE AGAIN...AS WELL AS
THE CHANCE FOR MORE FLURRIES.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ANOTHER RATHER WARM DAY IS SET FOR MONDAY AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. WINDS FROM THE S WILL HELP BRING SOME OF
THAT WARM AIR IN. BELIEVE THIS SHOULD ALSO WARM THE CT VALLEY
PRETTY QUICK GIVEN ITS POLEWARD ORIENTATION, AS WELL AS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN NH UP THE INTERIOR OF ME AND COAST.
SOME MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING AN AREA OF CLOUDS FORMING
IN VICINITY OF THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS OF LOW
CONFIDENCE, BUT IT COULD PLAY A ROLE IN AFTERNOON HIGHS. TEMPS
SHOULD TREND DOWN PER DIURNAL NORMS IN THE EVENING, BUT BEGIN TO
SLOWLY WARM THROUGH THE NIGHT AMID ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL ALSO
BE A GOOD SOURCE OF MOISTURE, SATURATING MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL
PROFILES BELOW A INVERSION. THIS COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF
DRIZZLE IN THE FOOTHILLS OR MOUNTAINS MON NIGHT. WILL ALSO NEED
TO WATCH INCOMING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE WEST.
THIS COULD LEAD TO A SEEDER/FEEDER ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. PROFILES ARE MOSTLY WARM DUE TO THE ANTIDIURNAL
TREND LATE MON NIGHT, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME FLURRIES MIXING IN
EARLY AS LOWER LEVELS CONTINUE TO WARM ABOVE FREEZING. SNOW
CHANCES COULD LINGER LONGER ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MTNS, BUT
NOT CERTAIN THAT REGION COOLS MUCH BELOW FREEZING AFTER THE
WARM DAY MONDAY.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS WITH A COUPLE OF
BROAD FRONTAL ZONES STARTING ON TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE ENTERING THE REGION FROM THE WEST WILL BE SLOW TO
SATURATE THE ATMOSPHERE AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS JUST TO OUR
EAST. HOWEVER, A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO ALLOW
MOISTURE TO ENTER THE REGION FROM THE GULF OF MAINE. THEREFORE,
HAVE INCREASED POPS WITH TIME DURING THE DAY WITH ANY SNOW IN
THE NORTH CHANGING TO RAIN. THIS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TUESDAY
NIGHT.
MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY FORM ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
SOME LOWER 50S CAN BE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING SOME DRIER AIR
DOWN TO END OUT THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THERE IS VERY LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS IN REGARDS TO A SYSTEM
TRACKING ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND POTENTIALLY
INTENSIFYING SOMEWHERE OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE, CONFIDENCE
LEVELS FOR NEXT WEEKEND REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. A FEW
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KHIE THIS EVENING. WINDS SHIFT S MONDAY
MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO 15-20 KT ALONG THE ME/NH COASTAL TAF
SITES MONDAY AFTERNOON. LOWERING CEILINGS ARE LIKELY LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY ON TUESDAY OVER
NORTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER, LOWERING CEILINGS AND PRECIPITATION
ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE ENTERS THE REGION AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO BRING IFR AND
LIFR CONDITIONS AS PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTH FROM THE GULF OF
MAINE. IFR AND LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH A
WARM FRONT LIFTING WEST OF THE WATERS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS MONDAY. A SCA WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS AS GUSTS TOP OUT AROUND 30 KT. WAVES REMAIN
AROUND 3 TO 4 FT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
UNTIL WE REACH TUESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY GRADIENT BECOMES GUSTY
OVER THE WATERS. WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST GUSTING TO 25 KT ON
WEDNESDAY. A NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP LATE IN
THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD OVER TIME.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR/SHORT TERM...CORNWELL
LONG TERM...CANNON
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