072  
FXUS61 KGYX 071022 AAA  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
622 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2022  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS FAIR WEATHER TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE  
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER  
THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER INTO MONDAY  
FOLLOWED BY A COUPLE FRONTS APPROACHING THE AREA BRINGING  
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
UPDATE...MINOR CHANGES TO REFLECT LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.  
 
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUIET WEATHER DAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.  
TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE BUT THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL  
RESULT IN SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND THRU THE  
AFTERNOON. THE COAST WILL COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY BY MID TO LATE  
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
 
 
TONIGHT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY POSSIBLE CONVECTION  
ON THE NOSE OF DEVELOPING LLJ AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CAM  
GUIDANCE DOES PERCOLATE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU SOUTHERN NH  
AND ALONG THE WESTERN ME COAST. SO I DO KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE  
POP IN THE FORECAST TOWARDS FRI MORNING.  
 
FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MORE TRICKY FRI AFTERNOON. FOR STARTERS  
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING WARMER TEMPS BACK INTO THE LOCAL  
AREA...CLIMBING INTO THE MID 80S ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES. WE ALSO  
HAVE A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE  
AFTERNOON. FLOW WILL BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT INCREASING  
QUICKLY WITH HEIGHT. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS LIKELY TO BE  
INSTABILITY...AS DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK CAPE BUT STRUGGLING TO GET  
UPDRAFTS MUCH ABOVE THE FREEZING LEVEL. NOT A GREAT SET UP FOR  
WIDESPREAD THUNDER...BUT THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS COULD PRODUCE  
LIGHTNING. PLENTY OF DRY AIR...BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE  
MID LEVELS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS IF THEY  
DO FORM. SO MORE OF CONDITIONAL THREAT BASED ON FORECAST  
SOUNDINGS. I HAVE BLENDED IN LATEST CAM GUIDANCE...WHICH KEEPS  
POP GENERALLY ISOLATED IN NATURE...WITH SOME SCATTERED  
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT  
UNCERTAINTY I HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY ENHANCED WORDING TO THE  
THUNDER ACROSS WESTERN ME.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND  
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA OVER  
THE WEEKEND BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING FAIR  
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGH TEMPERATURES A  
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY... WARMING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE  
NORMAL BY MONDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY THERE WILL  
BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH HUMIDITY INCREASING THROUGH  
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN NEAR  
ZONAL FLOW MAY BEGIN TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER MONDAY NIGHT INTO  
TUESDAY AS THEY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THEREAFTER, THE 500 MB  
PATTERN LOOKS TO AMPLIFY WITH A TROUGH DEVELOPING NEAR THE GREAT  
LAKES REGION. OVERALL, THERE ARE NO SIGNALS FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAT  
WITH PRECIPITATION AVERAGING BELOW NORMAL DURING THE SATURDAY TO  
TUESDAY TIME FRAME AND SOME SIGNS OF A WETTER PATTERN FROM THE  
MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WNW OF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FUNNELING INTO  
THE FORECAST AREA. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE INCOMING DRY AIRMASS WILL  
HAVE PWATS DOWN TO AROUND 0.5 INCHES AT KGYX, WHICH WOULD PUT THIS  
BELOW THE BOTTOM 10 PERCENT MOVING AVERAGE BASED ON SPC SOUNDING  
CLIMATOLOGY AT KGYX. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW VERY DRY AIR ALOFT  
WITH A MIXED LAYER APPROACHING 800 MB. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE  
LOWERED DEWPOINTS VS THE NBM. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL MAKE FOR AMPLE  
SUNSHINE AND THERE WILL ENOUGH OF AN OFFSHORE GRADIENT TO KEEP THE  
SEA BREEZE AT BAY UNTIL AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE  
UPPER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN TO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS NORTHERN  
ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE CLOSER TO OVERHEAD  
SATURDAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS WILL  
BRING MANY AREAS DOWN INTO THE 40S FOR LOWS WITH LOW 50S ALONG THE  
COASTAL PLAIN. FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES  
AND HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE  
SHIFTS OFFSHORE, WHILE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOOK TO HOLD  
OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF FRONTS LOOK TO APPROACH THE  
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DISTURBANCES TRACK ACROSS  
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TIMING OF THESE  
FRONTAL PASSAGES AND WHETHER THEY WILL BE ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO  
BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL GIVEN THE TREND WITH THE FRONTAL  
PASSAGE THIS FRIDAY. HAVE GENERALLY STUCK WITH THE NBM FOR POPS  
WHICH BRINGS CHANCES IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...VALLEY FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIFT WITH  
SUNRISE THIS MORNING GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR. VFR  
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL FRI AFTERNOON WHEN A COLD FRONT  
CROSSES THE REGION. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE  
ALONG THE FRONT...MAINLY NORTH OF PWM. CANNOT RULE OUT TSRA FOR  
AUG AND RKD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW AT ANY GIVEN  
LOCATION.  
 
LONG TERM...VFR WILL BE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM...WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF  
A WELL DEVELOPED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BY THE AFTERNOON. FLOW  
MORE OR LESS REMAINS SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT  
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE  
FRI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  
 
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS OVER  
THE WEEKEND HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE  
NW. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY  
BEFORE TURNING ONSHORE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT  
OF THE SW LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS  
OFFSHORE. WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY AS THE  
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS SE  
CANADA AND HIGHS PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST OF THE WATERS.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...NONE.  
NH...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...LEGRO  
SHORT TERM...LEGRO  
LONG TERM...SCHROETER  
 
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