069
FXUS61 KGYX 271833
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WELL ADVERTISED NOR'EASTER WILL CONTINUE BRINGING PERIODS OF
SOAKING RAIN, GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS, AND DANGEROUS MARINE
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH LARGE BREAKING
WAVES AND A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS. SPLASH-OVER AND MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ARE THROUGH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
2. WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY FOR AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WINDS ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY BUT WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.
3. AFTER THE NOR'EASTER MOVES AWAY ON TUESDAY, CONDITIONS TURN
WARMER AND DRIER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THE NOR'EASTER HAS STALLED NEAR THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY AS
EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY UNTIL
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN GRADUALLY FILL IN AND WEAKEN
AS IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THE REST OF
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
FOR OUR AREA, STORM SURGE VALUES OF 1.0 TO 1.5 FEET REMAIN ON
TRACK. WHILE TOTAL WATER LEVEL FORECASTS COME UP JUST SHORT OF
MINOR FLOOD STAGE, THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS FOR LARGE
WAVE ACTION. LARGE NEAR SHORE WAVES WILL BRING AMPLE SPLASH OVER
THAT WILL BRING DEBRIS ONTO VULNERABLE COASTAL ROADWAYS THROUGH
AT LEAST TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE. IN ADDITION, DUNE EROSION
IS EXPECTED AND THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME INUNDATION.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES AND OVER THE WATERS
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT. NEAR SHORE WAVES OF 10 TO 13
FEET CONTINUE, WITH ONLY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN HEIGHT LATE TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY THAT RUNS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON REMAINS UNCHANGED TO COVER THE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
FROM LARGE WAVES AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT THE LONG DURATION OF A LONG FETCH WILL CREATE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNEAKER WAVES THAT WILL BE LARGER EMBEDDED
WAVES IN A SET AND HAVE POTENTIAL TO RUN FARTHER INTO SHORE.
THEREFORE, EXTRA CAUTION IS ENCOURAGED FOR THOSE VENTURING TO
THE BEACH TO OBSERVED THE SURF AND AVOID ROCK OUTCROPS AND
JETTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AS THE BREADTH OF THE NOR'EASTER INCREASES, BANDS OF SHOWERS
AND STEADY RAIN (SOME HEAVY AT TIMES) WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER NOT
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE MOST BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND COASTAL MAINE. FURTHER INLAND,
THE DRY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL OCCASIONALLY
RIDGE SOUTHWARD WHICH WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS, ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IT WILL REMAIN QUITE BREEZY THROUGH MONDAY, BUT WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BE DECREASING. SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL
MAINE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THE HIGHEST GUSTS, MAINLY IN THE 25
TO 35 MPH RANGE. HOWEVER, WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO 40 MPH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN A WEAKENING PROCESS BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON, SO PEAK SFC WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS EVENING
INTO MONDAY.
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED REGARDING RAIN TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY. AREAS
SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE COAST SHOULD SEE A
ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
FAR SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND FAR SOUTHWEST MAINE. HERE,
LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY.
CAMS SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY COME IN WAVES WITH
A CONVECTIVE COMPONENT. THEREFORE, A STRAY BOLT OF LIGHTNING MAY
NOT BE IMPOSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS. EMBEDDED
DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH P-WATS IN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OR GREATER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHILE MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL START TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVERHEAD ON TUESDAY WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SOME LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER THE NOR'EASTER MOVES OFFSHORE, THE 500MB PATTERN LOOKS TO
FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SETTING UP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND, MODERATING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR A STRAY
SHOWER TO GENERATE ON WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, BUT MOST SHOULD
REMAIN DRY.
RAIN CHANCES ARE A LITTLE HIGHER ON FRIDAY, AS A COLD FRONT IS
POISED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE SLIGHT-CHANCE CATEGORY, AS
THE FRONT IS VERY WEAK AND ANY INSTABILITY WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME
A MODEST SUBSIDENCE LAYER. HIGH PRESSURE THEN LOOKS TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR TO MVFR THROUGH MONDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST IN RAIN. HOWEVER, PERIODS OF
IMPROVEMENT ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF RAIN BANDING. COASTAL
TERMINALS MAY SEE NORTHEAST SURFACE GUSTS OF 35 KT OR MORE TODAY,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS PSM.
OUTLOOK:
TUESDAY: CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO AT LEAST MVFR.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
FRIDAY: VFR EXPECTED MOST PLACES. OCCL SHOWERS COULD LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR AT HIE.
MARINE
NOR'EASTER CONTINUES TO BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS TO THE
COASTAL WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TODAY
AND TONIGHT BUT A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY
EVENING FOR ALL WATERS BUT THE BAYS. A STRONG SCA REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAYS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
EVENING BEFORE DROPPING BELOW THRESHOLDS.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE NOR'EASTER ON TUESDAY, WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. WAVES
LIKELY FALL BELOW 5FT BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS
MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS FOR MIDWEEK, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THEN POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MEZ023.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>027.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NHZ014.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ150-152-154-
180-182-184.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
DISCUSSION...HARGROVE/TUBBS/CLAIR
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