136
FXUS61 KGYX 120624
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
224 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE FORMING NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER OR TWO TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
2. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
CHILLY AND CRISP FALL WEATHER FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AFTER EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG LIFTS, TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER FAIR
WEATHER DAY AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SUNNY SKIES
WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A POSITIVE IVT PLUME AND ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN PWATS WILL
IMPINGE ON THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. THE MOST
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH BASED ON A MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. UP TO A HALF INCH OF RAIN IS FORECAST THERE,
WITH LESSER AMOUNTS AS ONE HEADS NORTH. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS MUCAPE BECOMES WEAKLY POSITIVE.
SHOWERS, POSSIBLE HEAVY AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES WHILE
INTERIOR LOCATIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THE
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS KICK UP AND
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE OVERHEAD BY MONDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL CALM AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR, RESULTING IN
RADIATIONAL COOLING. TUESDAY MORNING LOWS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN
THE LOWER 40S, WITH UPPER 30S NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. FROST
COULD CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW. SOME CLOUD COVER MOVES
IN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, AND SHOULD PREVENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VALLEY FOG AT LEB AND HIE PERSISTS
THROUGH MID-MORNING TODAY. VFR EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. A DETERIORATION
OF CONDITIONS IS THEN EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH MVFR AND THEN
IFR CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
FORESEEN LATE IN THE DAY AND NIGHT, ALTHOUGH FOG MAY BE AN ISSUE
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK:
MONDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING TRENDING TOWARDS VFR
BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: VFR EXPECTED, EXCEPT CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR VALLEY FOG AT LEB AND HIE.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR QUIET
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES WHILE WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. A COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT
SHIFTING WINDS OFFSHORE WITH WINDS AND SEAS STILL REMAINING
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/PALMER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page