061
FXUS61 KGYX 151047
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
647 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NEW AVIATION SECTION FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
OTHERWISE, NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED BUT DID TWEAK POPS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS TO BETTER ALIGN WITH OBSERVATIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH DRYING TREND THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THE PEMIGEWASSET RIVER AT WOODSTOCK REACHING
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND POSSIBLY THE SACO AT CONWAY AND THE
PEMIGEWASSET AT PLYMOUTH, RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN LOW ENOUGH
THAT THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL FLOOD PRODUCTS BEING NEEDED IS
LOW.
2. THE FIRST WEEKEND OF THE SPRING WITH WIDESPREAD WARMTH AND FAIR
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. WATER TEMPERATURES REMAIN COLD
WITH INLAND LAKES AROUND 50F AND OCEAN TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S SO
COLD WATER SAFETY MESSAGING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
3. EXPECT ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. THE WARMEST DAYS WILL BE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY ALSO BRING SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AN AXIS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL EXTENDS SSE TO WNW ACROSS SW
MAINE THROUGH CENTRAL NH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SOUTHERN NH SEEING
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STEADY RAIN. THIS AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
TO A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION AND SLOWLY SINK SOUTH AND WEAKEN
THROUGH MID MORNING. PEAK RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR OF 2-3 INCHES HAVE
OCCURRED IN THE WESTERN WHITE MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE LAKES
REGION OF NH WITH THIS OCCURING OVER A 12+ HOUR PERIOD. PEAK
RAINFALL RATES HAVE GENERALLY STAYED BELOW 0.5 INCHES PER HOUR
WITH MOST AREAS UNDER THE AXIS OF RAIN SEEING RATES OF 0.1 TO
0.25 INCHES PER HOUR. RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO
THIS MORNING SO WHILE SOME AREAS IN THE WHITES MAY SEE UPWARDS
OF 4 INCHES THE RISK FOR AREAL FLOOD ADVISORIES/WARNINGS APPEARS
LOW. THIS RAINFALL WILL BRING THE PEMI RIVER AT WOODSTOCK TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WHERE A RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.
THE AREAS LIKELY TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1-2 INCHES WILL BE
FROM THE EASTERN WHITE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE FOOTHILLS OF
WESTERN MAINE AND IN AND AROUND CUMBERLAND COUNTY. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS HERE SO FAR HAVE GENERALLY BEEN AROUND 1-2 INCHES SO
THESE AREAS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL.
AS AN UPPER LOW SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE TO THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S WITH MORE SUN ACROSS THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS LIMITING MUCH OF A SEA BREEZE WILL BRING HIGHS AREA WIDE
INTO THE 70S. A SHORT WAVE CROSSING QUEBEC WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY AND MAY SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT. RIDGING BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA SUNDAY
FOR ANOTHER WARM AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
ON SUNDAY, WE WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION FROM ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
DURING THE DAY, TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE EVENING AS A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES AND APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ON THE INCREASE WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE 60S AND LOWER 70S NORTH, TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW
TO MID 80S SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR ON MONDAY BUT
MAYBE A TOUCH COOLER EAST AND A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY BUT WE COULD
SEE SOME MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS WE TRANSITION BACK INTO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD TO THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR THUS
FAR WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S NORTH, TO THE MID 80S ACROSS THE MIDCOAST AND MOST
OF WESTERN MAINE, TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE. RETURN FLOW SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. WITH THE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE, WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME 30 TO 35
KNOT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AS OF RIGHT NOW, MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
MOUNTAINS WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
INSTABILITY MAY ALSO BE A BIT STRONGER ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR STRONG STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, A SMALL
MARINE LAYER MAY LIMIT STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE
COAST.
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN A BIT ON THURSDAY, BUT WILL LIKELY STILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN
MAINE.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...A MIX OF RESTRICTIONS RANGING FROM LIFR
TO MVFR WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...OWING TO RAIN, FOG, AND
LOW CEILINGS. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE WESTERN ME TERMINALS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, TAFS
SHOW TRENDS TOWARD IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR AS
CEILINGS LIFT AND PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON TIMING OF IMPROVEMENTS. FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY,
MAINLY VFR BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO RECENT
RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT: IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MARINE
NORTHEAST WINDS RELAX THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE PULLS
EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. SEAS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD
THROUGH TODAY TO 5-7 FEET KEEPING SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWEST TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS PICK UP TO SCA LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH 4-6FT SEAS EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY RELAX THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY FROM WEST TO EAST,
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO OUT OF THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BY THE
EVENING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH SEAS OF 2-3FT EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
DISCUSSION...SCHROETER/HARGROVE/COMBS
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