100
FXUS61 KGYX 191056
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
656 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
TODAY WITH DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER ON MONDAY.
2. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF DOWNPOURS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
EVENING. PLEASANT, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THIS MORNING, BECOMING BREEZY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. ANY EARLY MORNING SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE
OUT TO SEA FAIRLY QUICKLY, BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ANY REMAINING WILDFIRE
SMOKE SHOULD ALSO MOVE OUT THIS MORNING AND THE PATTERN SHOULD
GIVE US A BREAK FROM IT'S RETURN FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS.
HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE AVERAGES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR,
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S NORTH, TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S MOST ELSEWHERE. A FEW LOWER 80S ARE LIKELY OVER
SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE. TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL
MAINLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON MONDAY, LEADING TO LIGHTER WINDS, DRY
WEATHER, AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S NORTH, TO THE LOW TO MID 80S
SOUTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A SLOW MOVING, BUT DEEP TROUGH, DIGS INTO THE NORTHEAST. DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REALLY TRANSPORT IN A JUICY
ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED DOWNPOURS AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT MORE LIKELY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH HI-RES GUIDANCE JUST BEGINNING TO COME
INTO RANGE, CAN SEE A BIT OF A CONVECTIVE AUGMENTATION TO THIS
RAINFALL EVENT. THEREFORE, WILL LIKELY HAVE A FEW WAVES OF HEAVY
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME DRIER PERIODS
TOO.
MEAN GUIDANCE SHOWS PWATS SURGING TO 1.50-1.90", WHICH IS AOA THE
90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY. IN ADDITION, SOME DETERMINISTIC
OUTPUT IS SUGGESTING ROBUST IVT TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES. ALL THIS IS TO SAY THERE WILL BE A MOIST ENVIRONMENT
FAVORING EFFICIENT RAINFALL IN PLACE. HAVE SEEN QPF LOWER ON NBM
SINCE YESTERDAY, BUT IT IS STILL ADVERTISING A HEALTHY INCH
REGION- WIDE. THIS SLIGHT DROP IS LIKELY DUE TO A MORE SCATTERED
NATURE TO THE RAIN.
OVERALL NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR ROBUST/ORGANIZED CONVECTION, GIVEN
WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR, CAPE, AND GENERAL SLOW/PULSY STORM MOTIONS. DO
SEE A MODEST SEVERE SIGNAL EMERGING ON WEDNESDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED
SOME MORNING DESTABILIZATION TO REALIZE THE 1000 J/KG MUCAPE
THAT SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING, SO AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE
WITH CONVECTIVE SETUPS AROUND HERE, "STAY TUNED".
SHOULD GENERALLY HAVE NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THIS UPCOMING
WEEK. TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE A SMALL DIURNAL RANGE GIVEN THE
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS IN PLACE. BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY, CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS ARE A STRONG KICK OF DRY WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
TROUGH. THIS LOOKS TO REALLY DRY THINGS OUT, WITH DEW POINTS
POTENTIALLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S. COMBINED WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 10-12C, DARE WE SAY A TASTE OF EARLY FALL? THE ONLY FLY
IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE UPSTREAM WILDFIRE SMOKE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH TONIGHT...VFR HAS RETURNED TO MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT
FOR ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MTNS WHERE AN UPSLOPE MVFR DECK
LINGERS. THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MIDDAY WHEN IT BEGINS TO
SCATTER OUT. THE ONLY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE AT HIE HOWEVER.
OTHERWISE IT WILL REMAIN GUST THRU THE DAY WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL RELAX AT SUNSET, AND
DEPENDING ON HOW CALM IT GETS SOME VALLEY FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE AT
HIE AND LEB.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHRA AND A FEW TSRA.
THURSDAY: BECOMING VFR AFTER SOME MORNING SHOWERS.
FRIDAY: VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT PASSES THE WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PASSAGE
OF THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.
WINDS SHIFT MORE OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING, REMAINING GUSTY
BUT MOSTLY FALLING BELOW SCA LEVELS. WHILE WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
HAVE BUILT 5 TO 8 FT, THE NW WINDS SHOULD KNOCK THESE DOWN TO 3
TO 4 FT BY MID MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY, KEEPING CONDITIONS UNDER SCA LEVELS,
AND THEN THE NEXT FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER CHANCE AT SCA CONDITIONS
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ150-
152-154.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/HARGROVE
AVIATION...LEGRO
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