300
FXUS61 KGYX 310700
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
300 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2020
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT CROSSED THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOLLOWS FOR
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK. FAST MOVING DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS MIXED WITH DRY PERIODS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARDS THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY SWEEP
OFFSHORE IN THE PREDAWN HOURS THIS MORNING. BEHIND IT...A GUSTY
NORTHWEST POST-FRONTAL WIND AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 55 TO
60 ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND IN THE 60S ELSEWHERE. GIVEN THE
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S I'VE GONE
AHEAD AND ISSUED AN SPS FOR INLAND COLD WATER AS WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 60 ON MOST BODIES OF WATER. A BEACH
HAZARDS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/
A CLEAR START TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WIND AND A DRY AIRMASS IN
PLACE WILL SPELL SOME SCATTERED FROST ACROSS THE NORMALLY COLDER
INTERIOR VALLEYS. HOWEVER...THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING OVERNIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS.
GIVEN THE SHORT NIGHT AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER...I'VE HELD
OFF ON ISSUING A FROST ADVISORY SINCE SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
ON HOW WIDESPREAD THE FROST POTENTIAL WILL BE. ALONG WITH THE
CLOUDS WILL BE THE CHANCE OF A FEW SPRINKLES OR FLURRIES ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID
30S TO AROUND 40...WITH SOME LOWER 30S POSSIBLE IN THE NORMALLY
COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ON MONDAY...PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PROVIDE A MIX OF CLOUDS AND
SUNSHINE ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A PASSING SHOWER. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL LOWER AND MID 60S
ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ON TUESDAY WE WILL BE IN SW FLOW ALOFT, TRANSITIONING TO WESTERLY
FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY. NEAR ZONAL FLOW WILL HAVE
SET UP. WITHIN THESE QUICK CHANGES, SHORT WAVES IN THE FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH BY MIDWEEK WTH LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENING AND RETROGRADING FROM NEAR NOVA SCOTIA
TO EASTERN QUEBEC. THE FLOW BECOMES MORE CHAOTIC AFTER THIS, AND
AS SUCH CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR WAVE/PRECIP EVENT WILL BE
MODERATE AT BEST.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP COMES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. QPF LOOKS TO
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. SW FLOW ALOFT/WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
WILL PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS MEANS MORE CLOUD COVER
FOR THE NORTH AND A CHANCE OF MOUNTAIN SHOWERS.
AFTER A COOL START TO THE WEEK, HIGHS WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 80. AFTER A FROPA ON THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN
A FEW DEGREES.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MAINLY VFR. NW SURFACE WIND
GUSTING UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES TODAY. SCT MVFR PSB IN MTN
-SHRA/-SHSN AFT 06Z MONDAY.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. FAST MOVING
DISTURBANCES MAY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY IN SHRA.
MARINE
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...WE'LL SEE A BRIEF SURGE OF
NORTHWEST WIND EARLY THIS MORNING TO NEAR 25 KT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THIS PERIOD. GIVEN IT'LL BE A BREEZY
WEEKEND DAY AND WATER TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST REMAIN IN
THE LOWER 50S A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED.
LONG TERM...MAINLY QUIET ON THE WATERS WITH WINDS LESS THAN 20
KTS AND SEAS LESS THAN 5 FT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...NONE.
NEAR TERM...SCHWIBS
SHORT TERM...SCHWIBS
LONG TERM...HANES
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