646
FXUS61 KGYX 021839
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
239 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH AND INTO
INTERIOR MAINE FOR THE AFTERNOON BASED ON TRENDS. NO BIG CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MOST PRECIPITATION
STILL EXPECTED TO BE IN WESTERN ME FROM THE DISTANT COASTAL LOW.
KEY MESSAGES
1. MOSTLY CLOUDY AND SHOWERY WEATHER CONTINUE INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING, AND THEN A DISTANT COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY BRING MORE
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF WESTERN ME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. WINTER-LIKE CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WITH SUBFREEZING WINDS CHILLS AND A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF SNOW
ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS.
2. TEMPERATURES WARM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
3. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONT. PRECIPITATION
LIKELY AVERAGES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE THE ONGOING
THEME THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS
BROAD LIFT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY BRING ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ACROSS SOUTHERN NH THAT PRODUCE GRAUPEL OR
EVEN SMALL HAIL. LATEST TRENDS AND SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE FAVOR
SOUTHERN NH AND INTO THE INTERIOR AND FOOTHILLS OF WESTERN ME,
POPS ARE ROUGHLY 50-70% INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
GOING INTO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD
FROM A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NNE OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, ALONG WITH THE APPROACHING 500MB TROUGH, WILL RESULT IN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE THE AREA. HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE ACROSS THE KENNEBEC VALLEY AND MIDCOAST WITH
A SHARP CUTOFF LIKELY SOMEWHERE TO THE WEST WHERE LITTLE TO NO
PRECIP MAY FALL (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS). MODEL CONSENSUS IS GENERALLY IN THE PORTSMOUTH-
PORTLAND-LEWISTON/AUBURN VICINITY WITH THIS CUTOFF BUT COULD BE
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OR FARTHER EAST TOWARD AUGUSTA.
AT ANY RATE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE KENNEBEC VALLEY/MIDCOAST ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.25" TO 0.50" AND POSSIBLY MORE IN THE 0.50"
TO 0.75" RANGE CLOSER TO PENOBSCOT BAY. THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN
PEAKS IN THE WHITES MAY PICK UP ANOTHER COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW.
THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL FARTHER TO THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, AND THE DRIER AIR WILL WORK FARTHER EAST INTO WESTERN
ME. THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS, BUT THE
TREND WILL BE FOR RAIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THAT SAID, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE
TO SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A MOIST LAYER WITH A BIT OF
INSTABILITY ALOFT. SO PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ALONG WITH A
COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BEFORE CLOUDS FADE TOWARD SUNSET.
ASIDE FROM THE CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES, IT WILL BE BREEZY AS
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE 20-25 MPH
RANGE BUT MAY BE UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES IN SOME AREAS PER FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S FOR HIGHS,
POSSIBLY AROUND 60 IN PARTS OF SOUTHERN NH.
500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY NIGHT KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY FOR
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS A
SHORTWAVE QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
THAT COULD BRING SOME SHOWERS TO NORTHERN NH AND THE WESTERN ME
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AND TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
MORE CLOUDS, BUT THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS
MOVE IN WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL OR NOT COOL IT GETS, BUT IT DOES
LOOK LIKE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR SOME OF
THE NIGHT SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS. SO PATCHY FROST IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
WITH LOWS IN THE 30S , ESPECIALLY IF WINDS ARE ABLE TO DROP OFF
ENOUGH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MODEST HEIGHT RISES AND A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
BRING ABOUT A WARMING TREND MONDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW ON THE SUMMIT OF MT WASHINGTON MONDAY
MORNING. SKIES WILL TURN MOSTLY SUNNY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS RAMP UP WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALLOW MUCH OF THE AREA TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
AS THESE WINDS WILL INHIBIT ANY SEA BREEZES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEEPENS TUESDAY AS A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. THIS FLOW REGIME WILL ADVECT +15C TO +19C AIR AT 925
MB INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WITH FAVORABLE MIXING THIS
WILL YIELD TEMPERATURES INTO 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NH MAKING A RUN AT 80 DEGREES. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALSO LIMIT SEA BREEZES FROM CASCO BAY SOUTHWARDS. PEAK WIND
GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25 TO 30 MPH. CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL INCREASE FROM A SLOW MOVING FRONT
THAT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY THAT COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND POINT NORTHWARD.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A SLOW MOVING AND THEN STALLING COLD FRONT AND A CONSOLIDATING SPLIT
FLOW REGIME WILL BRING MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR BENEFICIAL RAINFALL LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASE NW
TO SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE AREAS ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN LIKELY STAY DRY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST AVAILABLE NWP
GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF MU CAPE AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE CT
VALLEY THROUGH CENTRAL NH AND INTO WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS. THIS
WOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WHILE THE LIMITING POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FORCING REMAINING TO THE WEST.
MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE OUT OF CSU DOES SHOW A MODEST SIGNAL
FOR SEVERE STORMS TUESDAY SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS AS WE GET
INTO THE WINDOW OF CAM GUIDANCE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS NEAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE PRESENCE
OF THE STALLED FRONT WILL KEEP LIKELY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GOING
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY, SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL
MERGE WITH PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER HUDSON BAY THAT COULD RESULT IN
AN ORGANIZED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER NEW ENGLAND.
ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT A GOOD SOAKING RAIN IS LIKELY THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH MEAN QPF AROUND 0.75 INCHES. THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH
RAINFALL TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY CONTINUE TO BRING HIGH PROBABILITIES
THAT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST 1 INCH OF RAIN BY
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...A MIX OF MVFR TO VFR CIGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN
ME TERMINALS AND MAYBE PSM ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
RAIN. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE OTHER NH TERMINALS. NH
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY BE VFR SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONGOING
RESTRICTIONS IN WESTERN ME, BUT SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR THE WESTERN
ME TERMINALS IS POSSIBLE LATE MORNING AND TOWARD THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST GUSTS 20-25 KT POSSIBLE IN NH IN THE
MORNING.
OUTLOOK:
REST OF SUNDAY: THE WESTERN MAINE TERMINALS RETURN TO VFR.
OTHERWISE, BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH 20-25 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE
OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR EXPECTED, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AT HIE LATE.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR EXPECTED, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS. RAIN SHOWERS COULD BRING RESTRICTIONS AT HIE.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE NW TO SE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE
UNLIKELY FROM CON TO AUG AND POINTS SOUTH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
TUESDAY NIGHT BRING SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: MVFR LIKELY WITH LOW CIGS AND RAIN
SHOWERS. IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IN
LOW CIGS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN. DRYING TREND FRIDAY WILL BRING
IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
MARINE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE GULF OF MAINE. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT
AND A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5 FT SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, BUT IN GENERAL, CONDITIONS LOOK TO
REMAIN JUST SHY OF SCA LEVELS. WINDS BACK TO MORE WESTERLY LATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES, BUT AGAIN CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED
TO STAY JUST UNDER SCA LEVELS.
SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING SW FLOW MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH SCAS LIKELY AND POSSIBLE GALES LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS RELAX SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WHILE SCAS WILL LIKELY STILL BE NEEDED INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...COMBS/SCHROETER
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