795
FXUS61 KGYX 040043
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
743 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE REFINED WEATHER
TYPES ALONG WITH SNOW AND ICE AMOUNTS WHICH HAVE BOTH INCREASED
SLIGHTLY BASED ON HI RES GUIDANCE. LATEST CORRELATION
COEFFICIENT ON KBOX SHOWS THE MIX LINE IS PUSHING INTO SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH KAFN REPORTING FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW IN THE LOWER MERRIMACK
VALLEY. THIS MIX LINE WILL CREEP NORTHWARDS OVER THE COMING
HOURS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SLICK TRAVEL IS LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING AS LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW EXPANDS
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT WITH SNOW ENDING AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.
2. WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.
3. MILD CONDITIONS AND RAIN WILL LEAD TO SOME SNOW MELT THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
AS OF 1PM EST, SNOW HAS JUST ARRIVED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN NH, WITH
KEENE AND JAFFREY STARTING TO REPORT LIGHT SNOW. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY, EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. TRAVEL FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE MAY BE
SLICK ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AS SNOW STARTS TO ACCUMULATE. 2-4 INCHES
OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH LIGHTER TOTALS
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AND T-2 INCHES EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.
ENOUGH WARM AIR ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO PENETRATE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE, WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SOME PERIODS OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN EXPECTED LATER ON IN THE EVENING. THE SNOWFALL EXPECTED PRIOR
TO THE WINTRY MIX WILL HELP MINIMIZE ICING IMPACTS, AS MOST PRIMARY
ROADS WILL HAVE BEEN TREATED BY THIS TIME. ICING WILL BE LIGHT, WITH
THE HIGHEST TOTALS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SEACOAST. NO MORE THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE, AND MOST PEOPLE SHOULD
ONLY SEE A TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH IF ANY.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WARM AIR LOOKS TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO THE AREA, AND
HIGHS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BEGINNING THU NIGHT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY MIX AND
SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT THERE IS A FAIRLY
HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. ONE IS IN REGARDS TO TEMPS ACROSS
THE AREA. WARMER AIR IS TRYING TO SURGE NORTH BUT HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS QUEBEC INTO THE MARITIMES WILL TEND TO SUPPORT
COLD AIR DAMMING. THIS IS SOMETHING THE NBM IS PRETTY
CONSISTENTLY POOR AT HANDLING, SO I OPTED TO GO WITH 25TH
PERCENTILE TEMPS INSTEAD THRU FRI. THE OTHER THING REDUCING
CONFIDENCE IS STORM TRACK. IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT THE STORM
SLIDES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY OR ONLY BRUSHES
SOUTHERN ZONES. THE NBM MEDIAN QPF IS LOWER THAN THE MEAN, AND
BOTH ARE HIGHER THAN THE LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. GIVEN
THAT AND THE LOW CONFIDENCE I PREFER USING THE LOWER WPC QPF FOR
THIS PRECIP EVENT TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF WINTRY PRECIP AT
THIS TIME. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ICE WILL BE OVERNIGHT THU INTO
FRI MORNING AND FROM AROUND 1000 TO 2000 FT WHERE THE COLD AIR
HANGS ON THE LONGEST.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRY AND PUSH THRU NEW ENGLAND FOR
THE WEEKEND. WHILE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, I AM SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF THE NBM PUSH OF
WARMER AIR. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN IS ONE SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH OR NORTHEAST, WHICH WOULD PROMOTE
ONSHORE WINDS. GIVEN HOW COLD THE OCEAN CURRENTLY IS, IT WILL
BE DIFFICULT TO REALIZE TEMPS INTO THE 50S NEAR THE COAST. THE
PREFERENCE IS TO HEDGE AWAY FROM NBM MAX TEMPS WITH SOME OF THE
COOLER GUIDANCE. HOWEVER THE WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS WILL
INTRODUCE BOTH RAIN AND SNOW MELT TO THE FORECAST. AT THIS TIME
NEITHER LOOK TO CAUSE US TROUBLE ON AREA RIVERS. THE AMOUNT OF
RUNOFF INTO THE RIVERS WILL BE SMALL, AND GIVEN HOW DRY THINGS
WERE HEADED INTO WINTER THE STREAMFLOW WAS ALREADY QUITE LOW. SO
WE HAVE SOME CAPACITY TO HANDLE ANY INCREASE IN FLOW. THERE MAY
BE SOME RIVER ICE BREAK UP AND MOVEMENT ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN AREAS, BUT AGAIN GIVEN HOW LOW RIVERS WERE TO BEGIN
WITH THE FORMATION OF AN ICE JAM DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN
FLOODING.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY: SNOW CONTINUES IFR/LIFR THROUGH 06Z ACROSS
ALL TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING KHIE UNTIL 03Z. SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM KMHT TO KPSM. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY AS PRECIPITATION ENDS. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK:
THURSDAY: BECOMING OVERCAST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT: AREAS OF IFR POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES.
FRIDAY: SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD COVER, BUT AREAS OF MVFR OR
LOWER REMAIN POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY NIGHT: AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT.
SATURDAY: AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ALONG WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE ALONG WITH RAIN
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
SUNDAY: RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS
OUT OF THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO SUB-SCA LEVELS BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH VARIABLE WINDS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF THE WATERS WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST
WINDS TO FRESHEN THU INTO FRI. THIS WILL BE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SCA CONDITIONS, AS NORTHEAST WINDS TEND TO BE STRONGER THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE. THEN FAIRLY PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW THRU THE
WEEKEND MAY ALLOW SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS TO BUILD ABOVE 5 FT
ALONG WITH SOME MARGINAL SCA GUSTS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SET TO
CROSS THE WATERS SUN.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
MEZ018>020-023>025.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
NHZ003>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...LEGRO/PALMER/SCHROETER
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