159
FXUS61 KGYX 291105
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
605 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
AFTER HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT WILL DRAW MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
SNOW AND RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
605 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO CONVERT THE GALE WARNING TO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS MARINE CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE DAY. OTHERWISE, JUST LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MADE
VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS AS UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE, BUT
THEY WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRATOCU AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN
THE MOUNTAINS, AT LEAST THIS MORNING BEFORE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO CREST OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
RESULT FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE A FAIR WEATHER DAY, RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS, AND SOMEWHAT CHILLY TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 30 AND 40 DEPENDING ON LOCATION.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR TONIGHT BRINGING LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP PRETTY QUICKLY IF SKIES ARE CLEAR
ENOUGH EARLY ON. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
LATER ON TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
THIS MAY PUT A CAP ON TEMP DROPS.
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL AID
IN INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL ALLOW
LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO BREAK OUT FROM WEST TO EAST. MUCH OF
THIS MAY VERY WELL BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW AWAY FROM THE
COAST AND SOUTHEASTERN NH. HOWEVER, THERE'S NO REAL MECHANISM TO
KEEP THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR IN PLACE SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS AS
THE DAY PROGRESSES WITH A BROAD SOUTHERLY WIND DEVELOPING. THIS
WILL QUICKLY TURN ANY SNOW TO RAIN SOUTH OF THE FOOTHILLS.
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THAT FALLS,
PORTIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS ZONES COULD PICK UP LOWER-END WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (3-5").
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
OVERVIEW: LOW PRESSURE LIFTING INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND CRESTS OVER
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. A PROGRESSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BRINGING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT CROSSING THURSDAY.
IMPACTS:
*THE TUESDAY EVENING COMMUTE LIKELY SEE IMPACTS FROM
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL THAT COULD LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
DETAILS: CHANCES FOR RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ON
A DOWNWARD TREND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY
MORNING THAT WILL REINVIGORATE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. NW WINDS WILL RAMP UP WITH THIS SECOND FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BY LATE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND CRESTS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 20S NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH AND TEENS SOUTH.
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW STARTING
AROUND MID DAY TUESDAY AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP
WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH LIFTING NE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE LATITUDE AND SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH HAS
RESULTED IN A SPREAD IN THE TRACK AND AMPLIFICATION OF THE
SURFACE LOW AMONGST DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. A LOOK AT ENSEMBLES
SHOWS SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LOOSE CLUSTERING OF LOW
CENTERS TRACKING NEAR 40N/70W TUESDAY EVENING. THE LACK OF
UPSTREAM BLOCKING WILL LEAD TO THE SURFACE LOW PROGRESSING ENE
SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS TRACK WILL
FAVOR MOSTLY SNOW WITH DESI SHOWING PROBABILITIES OF GREATER
THAN 3 INCHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FOOTHILLS AROUND 50-60
PERCENT. THE PARENT TROUGH TO THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND WILL MOVE ONSHORE WITHIN BETTER SAMPLING OF
RAOBS SOME TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BEAR
WATCHING OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL IF THEY
WERE TO VERIFY.
LOW PRESSURE QUICKLY EXITS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDING IN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH THURSDAY
AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT TAKES AIM AT NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...MOSTLY VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS PRECIPITATION SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS ME
AND NH. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL BE RELEGATED TO THE MOUNTAINS BUT
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS MAY SEE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWERED VSBYS BEFORE A CHANGE TO RAIN.
LONG TERM...MVFR TO IFR ARE LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL
IMPROVE TOWARDS VFR BY MONDAY MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES.
NW WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS MONDAY. VFR MONDAY NIGHT LIKELY
TRANSITIONS TO MVFR AND THEN IFR TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING AS SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA. SNOW ENDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH VFR LIKELY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER THE OUTER WATERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BAYS AND THEN OVER THE OUTER
WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS IMPROVING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS STAYING UNDER SCA LEVELS.
WINDS ONCE AGAIN INCREASE SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. LOW-END GALES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON BUT INVERSION SHOULD KEEP STRONGEST WINDS ABOVE
THE SFC.
LONG TERM...A COLD FRONT CROSSING SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WNW
WINDS TO GALE FORCE AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS AND
SEAS DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE OUTSKIRTS
OF THE GULF OF MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ150>154.
NEAR TERM...BARON/EKSTER
SHORT TERM...COMBS/EKSTER
LONG TERM...SCHROETER
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