326
FXUS61 KGYX 121845
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
245 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED THE FORECAST COLDER. THE
COLDER TREND ALLOWED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SNOW AND ICE
ACROSS FRANKLIN AND SOMERSET COUNTIES. OPTED TO MOVE THE
FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION AS WELL DUE TO A HISTORICAL WARM
BIAS IN THE MODELS DURING COLD AIR DAM SETUPS LIKE THIS ONE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT BRINGS COLDER AIR TONIGHT WITH LOW
PRESSURE CROSSING ON TUESDAY. MAINLY A COLD, BENEFICIAL RAIN IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WHILE THE MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
SOMERSET COUNTY SEE AT LEAST THE FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THE
SEASON. SECONDARY ROADS BRANCHING OFF FROM ME-27 OR US-201 NORTH
OF SKOWHEGAN/FARMINGTON MAY BECOME SLICK TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
2. DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE.
3. LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH ON FRIDAY, WITH COLD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND..
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
THIS EVENING, A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH FROM CANADA.
A STRAY SHOWER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT NORTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL DRASTICALLY AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR
INSTANCE, IN KENNEBEC COUNTY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER
60S CURRENTLY. BY TOMORROW MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 30S, WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES LIKELY NORTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS, AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ALONG THE COAST AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW BRUNSWICK WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, AND SHOULD LARGELY
PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING UP THROUGH THE DAY. THIS IS
METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA CALLED A COLD AIR DAM. FOR THE
POPULATION CORRIDOR, THIS LIKELY WILL NOT POSE ANY ISSUES, AS
THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY ABOVE FREEZING. PERHAPS
MORE CONCERNING IS HOW TEMPERATURES PAN OUT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MAINE AND HOW LONG THE COLD AIR DAM HANGS ON TO BELOW-FREEZING
OR NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MAINE.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN ACROSS MOST
LOCATIONS AND FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED IN ELEVATIONS ABOVE 3000FT. FOR
THE FROZEN SIDE OF THE STORM, MODEL GUIDANCE TODAY HAS HAD A DESIRE
TO BRING MORE WINTRY PRECIPITATION INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MAINE.
FROM PATTERN RECOGNITION THIS MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE GUIDANCE IS
ALMOST ALWAYS TOO WARM DURING COLD AIR DAMMING. HOWEVER, I DON'T
QUITE SEE THIS AS TRANSLATING TO MORE SNOW, RATHER LONGER
DURATIONS OF MIXED- PRECIPITATION: SNOW, SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN. IF IT DOES SNOW, A THICK ISOTHERMIC LAYER IN THE LOW-
LEVELS SHOULD KEEP SLRS VERY LOW, AND GENERALLY MAKE IT VERY
DIFFICULT FOR ANY PERIODS OF ALL-SNOW.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW BRUNSWICK WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT EASTWARD. THIS WILL IN TURN, DISRUPT THE CONSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THAT FORM AND MAINTAIN THE COLD AIR DAM. WITHOUT
THESE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS, WARM AIR ALOFT IS MUCH MORE LIKELY TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND WILL RESULT IN ALL LOCATIONS IN WESTERN
MAINE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN LATE IN THE EVENING. BY THIS TIME MOST
OF THE STORM IS OVER, AND WILL DEPART THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SKIES
MAY EVEN CLEAR OUT A LITTLE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FOR WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS, WE'RE NOT EXPECTING MUCH. THE LOW SLRS AND
AN EVENTUAL CHANGEOVER TO ICE AND THEN PLAIN RAIN SHOULD PREVENT
SNOW FROM ACCUMULATING IN THIS AREA, BUT JUST ENOUGH SNOW AND SLEET
TO FORM A COATING TO AN INCH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE UP BY JACKMAN OR
MOOSEHEAD LAKE. HOWEVER, EVEN A TRACE OF ICING CAN MAKE ROADS
SLIPPERY SO DRIVERS IN THIS PART OF THE STATE SHOULD HEED CAUTION.
FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY
TO FALL ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND MAINE, WITH AT OVER AN INCH
LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF NH AND LOCATIONS NORTH OF
PORTLAND. SOUTHERN NH AND YORK COUNTY ARE MOST LIKELY LOOKING AT
LESS, LIKELY CLOSER TO A HALF AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE LOW GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY DURING THE DAYTIME ON WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN MUCH
OF THE DAY, WHILE AREAS DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS GRADUALLY DRY
OUT THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WARM ONCE WINDS SHIFT TO
WESTERLY BEHIND THE SYSTEM, WHICH WILL TAKE UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST. SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE STANDS THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE TEMPERATURES JUMP INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S IN
THE AFTERNOON, BUT AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST WILL BE PRESSED
FOR TIME BEFORE THE SUNSET TO ACTUALLY REALIZE THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES FORECAST BY THE NBM.
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. CONDITIONS LOOK SEASONABLE,
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE NORTH, TO LOW
60S ALONG THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
BY FRIDAY, LOW PRESSURE RIDES EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE
LOW DEEPENS AS IT PASSES THROUGH, AND BECOMES A PRETTY STRONG
COASTAL STORM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
ANOTHER ROUND OF BENEFICIAL RAIN LOOKS LIKELY DURING THE FRIDAY
TO FRIDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME, WITH GENERALLY A HALF INCH TO AN INCH
OF QPF.
AS THE LOW DEEPENS WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES,
A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.
CURRENTLY, A SMALL AREA OF MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR LOOKS TO BE
DIRECTED INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE
THAT THIS AIRMASS MISSES US TO THE EAST. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME
A COLD AIRMASS FOR MID OCTOBER LOOKS LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND,
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S LOOK LIKELY FOR
SATURDAY, ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS LIKELY DIP
BELOW FREEZING ALL THE WAY TO THE COASTLINE IN MOST AREAS, WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S. TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILARLY CHILLY
WITH LESS WIND ON SUNDAY, BEFORE TEMPS BEGIN TO REBOUND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A LOW MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST. IFR IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN AND LOW
STRATUS INTO THE AREA. WHILE SOME WINTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED, ALL
ROUTINE TAF SITES SHOULD STAY PLAIN RAIN THROUGH THE ENTIRETY
OF THE EVENT. HOWEVER, A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE COULD OCCUR AT
RANGELEY AND CARRABASSETT VALLEY MUNI AIRPORTS, WITH SNOW AND
ICE LIKELY IN JACKMAN. CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW EXITS THE REGION.
OUTLOOK:
WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED, MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO
UPSLOPE SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
FRIDAY...MVFR EXPECTED, WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. LOWER CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS.
SATURDAY...VFR EXPECTED SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS, WITH IFR IN THE
MOUNTAINS, WITH KLEB AND KHIE. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE HERE DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHEASTERLIES AND STRENGTHEN TO SCA LEVELS. SEAS OF 4-6FT
EXPECTED TONIGHT. EASTERLY SCA WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW AND SEAS HOLDING STEADY AT 4-6FT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
CROSSES ON THURSDAY WITH FAIR CONDITIONS. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE
WATERS ON FRIDAY, WITH NORTHWESTERLY GALES POSSIBLE BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ180.
DISCUSSION...CLAIR/PALMER
AVIATION...PALMER
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