249
FXUS61 KGYX 211833
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
233 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NORTHERN GRAFTON COUNTY HAS BEEN CONVERTED TO A FREEZE WARNING
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE ALLOWS FOR COLD NIGHT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY FAIR
WEATHER FRIDAY. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
2. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
SOME RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA TO END THE WEEKEND, BUT THE
QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTHEAST DOES THE RAIN MAKE IT BEFORE SLIDING
OUT TO SEA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA TONIGHT. HIGHS CLOUDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALONG
WITH DIMINISHING WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH NORTHERN VALLEYS DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING AND AREAS ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S. FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR TONIGHT. ENOUGH FLOW ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WILL
KEEP LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES FAIR WEATHER ON FRIDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS CLIMBING
INTO THE LOW 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER COOL
NIGHT ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST MAY HALT
RADIATIONAL COOLING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS ARE LAST TO
ARRIVE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
BY SATURDAY, A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OVER QUEBEC. THIS
PATTERN WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY, BUT AN
APPROACHING TROUGH COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST LOW CHANCES (20 TO 40
PERCENT) OF SOME LIGHT RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE BY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS RAIN MOVING IN EARLIER THAN
OTHERS BUT I AM SKEPTICAL OF THE EARLIER SOLUTIONS AS MOST MODELS
SUGGEST WE WILL BE SEEING HEIGHT RISES OR NEUTRAL HEIGHTS UNTIL
SUNDAY.
ON SUNDAY, A SURFACE LOW WILL ALSO DEEPEN OFF THE COAST OF NEW
JERSEY BEFORE LIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE BY MONDAY MORNING.
THUS, WE WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. THE BEST SYNOPTIC FORCING SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHICH IS WHEN WE WILL
LIKELY SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN. EVEN THEN, AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
FAIRLY LIGHT. THE LATEST NBM CURRENTLY SUGGESTS MEDIUM TO HIGH
PROBABILITIES (40 TO 80 PERCENT) FOR A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN OR MORE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE FOOTHILLS/INTERIOR
OF MAINE. HOWEVER, WHEN WE INCREASE THAT THRESHOLD TO A HALF INCH,
THE QPF PROBABILITIES DECREASE INTO THE LOW TO MEDIUM (20 TO 50
PERCENT) RANGE. THUS, CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT WE WILL SEE
WIDESPREAD TOTALS IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, BUT CONFIDENCE
FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY LOW AT THIS TIME.
SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY DO NOT LOOK TO BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS,
BUT KEEP AN EYE ON THE SKIES IF YOU HAVE PLANS OUTSIDE AS THERE WILL
BE SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN FLOATING AROUND.
AFTER RAIN MOVES OUT ON MONDAY, THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY
DRY BUT MODELS DO HAVE A WEAK WAVE AND COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY PERIOD, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION/TIMING REMAINS LOW. OTHERWISE, EXPECT
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN.
REGARDING TEMPERATURES, WE WILL START OUT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
60S ON SATURDAY, BUT A FEW LOWER 70 AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION. WE
WILL THEN COOL DOWN ON SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND CLOUD COVER
IN THE AREA. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN LEAD TO A GRADUAL WARMUP THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BY
TUESDAY, WE WILL HAVE WIDESPREAD HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK, BUT
LARGE NBM TEMPERATURES SPREAD SUGGESTS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH FRIDAY...VFR PREVAILS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL MUCH
OF THE TIME, THOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS MAY BEGIN TO CREEP IN LATE SAT
NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER AS CIGS LOWER AND AREAS
OF RAIN MOVE THRU THE REGION.
TUESDAY: GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN TONIGHT AND WILL SETTLE OVER
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS
BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS.
WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA CRITERIA ON THE COASTAL WATERS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FETCH BUILDS. WINDS THEN BECOME
OFFSHORE BEHIND A STRONGER COLD FRONT WED EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST MID TO LATE WEEK.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MEZ007-008.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
MEZ009-012-013-033.
NH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NHZ001>003.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NHZ004>007-011.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHROETER/HARGROVE/KRAMPF
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