209
FXUS61 KGYX 181205
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND MOVES EAST
SUNDAY AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
SEND A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN. TROUGHING LINGERS
OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL
DISTURBANCES, AND CHANCES OF RAIN, TO ENTER THE REGION.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
800 AM UPDATE...QUICK UPDATE TO ISSUE AN SCA FOR THE WATERS
SOUTH OF CASCO BAY. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THIS AREA ARE
STILL HOVERING AROUND 6FT, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY COME DOWN
THROUGH THE DAY.
UPDATE: PREVIOUS FORECAST ON TRACK AS A CHILLY QUIET MORNING
CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF NEW ENGLAND.
PREVIOUSLY:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN AT
THE SURFACE TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL MEAN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S. SOME
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A WARMER NIGHT THAN PREVIOUS
NIGHTS, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 40S MOST ELSEWHERE. SOME VALLEY FOG MAY
BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD
AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST AND WE TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH STARTS TO APPROACH.
FORECAST HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
SOME 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
EVENING UPDATE...
OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH THIS
UPDATE AS NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BRING A MORE ACTIVE STORM TRACK AND
CHANCES FOR RAIN. ONE ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BRING THE RAIN INTO THE
AREA A LITTLE EARLIER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, AS THE EVENING
MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM.
FULL DISCUSSION...
PATTERN OVERVIEW: THE RIDGE MOVE EAST, GIVING WAY TO WHAT LOOKS
LIKE AN ACTIVE WEEK. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON A TRAIN
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE
COURSE OF THE WORK WEEK.
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* THE WEATHER PATTERN TURNS ACTIVE NEXT WEEK, WITH MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN, BUT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
DETAILS: SUNDAY: THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST BY EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LOW CUTS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT AND THICKER
CLOUD COVER BUILDS IN OUT AHEAD OF IT KEEPING LOW TEMPERATURES
ON THE MILD SIDE (MID- TO UPPER 40S AREAWIDE). A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE HEADING TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION HOLDS OFF.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: THE LATEST DEVELOPMENTS IN REGARDS TO THE
FIRST DISTURBANCE EARLY IN THE WEEK IS THAT CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIPITATION TIMING HAS INCREASED, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN
UNCERTAIN. THE GFS HAS COME ON BOARD WITH THE EURO, HAVING THE
LOW TAKING THE SOUTHERLY TRACK (THE CANADIAN REMAINS AN
OUTLIER), BUT IN TURN THE EURO IS STARTING TO FOLLOW THE GFS IN
SPEEDING THE SYSTEM UP. THE GFS IS STILL THE FASTEST, BUT THIS
INCREASES CONFIDENCE IN SEEING A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER AT SOME
POINT ON TUESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTABLE UPTICK IN QPF IN THE
EURO ENSEMBLE SUITE WITH PROBABILITIES OF GREATER THAN A HALF
INCH NOW 60-80% (THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES ARE IN THE MOUNTAINS),
BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE SUITE REMAINS UNIMPRESSED AND IS HOLDING
STEADY WITH PROBABILITIES OF 20-40%. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY,
THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVENESS OF THE SYSTEM, THE GFS
WANTS TUESDAY TO BE MOSTLY DRY, WHILE THE EURO HAS SHOWERS AT
LEAST INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THERE ARE A FEW OTHER CONSIDERATIONS
THAT HAVE ME LEANING TOWARD THE EURO SOLUTION, THE FIRST BEING
THAT PWATS ARE GOING TO BE MODEST. THE AXIS OF HIGHER PWATS
REMAINS OFFSHORE, BUT OVER OUR AREA THEY ARE CURRENTLY MODELED
AROUND ONE INCH. THE SECOND IS THAT IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE A
~50KT LOW LEVEL JET OVERHEAD, SO SOME JET DYNAMICS ARE BOUND TO
COME INTO PLAY HERE, DEVELOPING SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS. THAT
BEING SAID, WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR A WIND THREAT TO DEVELOP. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND LOW LEVEL JET, BUT THEIR LOWER RESOLUTION
IS ASSUMING IT WILL BE TOO CLOUDY TO MIX ANY GUSTS DOWN AND
CAN'T RESOLVE A CONVECTIVE WIND THREAT. DON'T BE SURPRISED IF
THIS BECOMES A TALKING POINT AS THIS SYSTEM BEGINS TO CREEP INTO
THE CAMS, BUT FOR NOW EXPECTING GENERALLY 25-30 MPH GUSTS ON
MONDAY SEEMS REASONABLE.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE GLOBAL
MODELS THAT THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK,
WITH ANOTHER UPPER LOW SWINGING IN BEHIND THE FIRST ONE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS IS THEN FOLLOWED BY A WEAKER OPEN
WAVE LATE IN THE WEEK. I WILL LEAVE IT AT THAT TO AVOID TOO MUCH
SPECULATION (AND WRITING A TOME), BUT THE TAKEAWAY SHOULD BE TO
KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON YOUR FORECAST AS WE WORK OUT THE DETAILS OF
EACH ONE (AND MAYBE KEEP A RAINCOAT OR UMBRELLA HANDY NEXT
WEEK).
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
EVENING, BUT WE COULD SEE SOME VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING LEB AND HIE.
LONG TERM...CEILINGS THICKEN AND LOWER SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
SEES GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS. SOME BRIEF IFR
RESTRICTIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT IF HEAVIER RAIN MATERIALIZES.
WIND GUSTS 20-30KTS ARE LIKELY AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL
TERMINALS. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AFTER AROUND 06Z TUESDAY AS RAIN
TAPERS OFF AND SKIES CLEAR A BIT. SOME IMPROVEMENT MAY BE SEEN
FOR A PERIOD ON TUESDAY, BUT ANOTHER SYSTEM SWINGS IN TUESDAY
NIGHT SO IT WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO RELAX. SOME 5FT SEAS MAY
LINGER TODAY OVER THE FRINGES OF OUR SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES BUT
THE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE MARGINAL ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ON ANY
SCA FOR NOW.
LONG TERM...SEAS BUILD BACK TO AROUND 5FT SUNDAY NIGHT AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO
INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MONDAY FEATURING FREQUENT GUSTS
25-30KTS. WINDS CALM BELOW 25KTS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SEAS SLOWER
TO SUBSIDE AND LIKELY NOT FALLING BELOW 5FT UNTIL LATE IN THE
DAY TUESDAY. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED IN THE MID-WEEK TIMEFRAME AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ154.
NEAR TERM...BARON/HARGROVE
SHORT TERM...HARGROVE
LONG TERM...BARON/CLAIR
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