752
FXUS61 KGYX 081824
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
224 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PROVIDING THE FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS STAY IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH THE THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES. SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLE HEAT RETURNS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE FOCUS TODAY CONTINUES TO BE ON DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHWEST
MAINE AND SOUTHEAST NEW HAMPSHIRE. STORMS HAVE ALREADY STARTED
DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES. SO FAR STORMS HAVE REMAINED RELATIVELY SMALL IN SIZE AND
HAVE CONTINUED MOVING, HELPING TO LIMIT RAINFALL TOTALS. THE
CONCERN REMAINS FOR REPEAT STORMS AND SLOW MOVING STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AROUND BIDDEFORD, WEST OF
SEBAGO LAKE, AND THEN EAST OF FRYEBURG. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD, STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
FIRE INTO TOWNS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST INTO SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE. FURTHER AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, HEAT INDICES HAVE
REACHED THE MID 90S ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND THE
SEACOAST. THE HEAT CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PRESS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR THE FLASH FLOOD RISK THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH THESE STORMS, WITH THE THREAT OF REPEAT STORMS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
COOLER CONDITIONS SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TOMORROW, WITH
MOST SPOTS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S. SOME LOW TO MID 80S ARE
LIKELY RESERVED FOR THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. BEHIND THE
FRONT, POP UP SHOWERS AND MAINLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL MOST
OF THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ALONG
THE COAST, MORE LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW.
SHOWERS DECREASE IN COVERAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURES COOL MORE THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHT, WITH LOWS
DIPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IMPACTS AND KEY MESSAGES:
* SUMMER PATTERN WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
* NO STRONG SIGNALS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OR FLASH FLOODING
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME.
PATTERN WILL CONSIST OF A PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW WITH TWO MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EXPECTED TO CROSS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THURSDAY INTO THE EVENING THE FIRST ORGANIZED
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION SPARKING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION. PWAT VALUES COULD SURGE TO 1.5" ACROSS
THE AREA, BUT STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MITIGATE FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR LOOKS MINIMAL ALSO, SO SEVERE
THREAT DOESN'T SEEM ANYTHING ABOVE MARGINAL AS WORST CASE AT THIS
TIME. FRONT IS EXPECT CLEAR THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME
LINGERING DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT
WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED. RIDGING IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
WEEKEND WITH BUILDING HEAT ONCE AGAIN, BUT LOOKING DRY AT THIS POINT
FOR SATURDAY. THE SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
LATE SUNDAY, WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE IS THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY, BUT TIMING OF THIS
FEATURE IS PLUS OR MINUS 18HRS AT THIS POINT, SO WILL SEE HOW THINGS
TREND. OVERALL LOOKS LIKE A DESCENT SUMMER WEEKEND, ALBEIT A LITTLE
WARM. SHOWER ACTIVITY CHANCES AND HEAT LIKELY TO BUILD THE BEGINNING
THE NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES TREND BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE HEART
OF SUMMER.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PROBS REMAIN LOW AT MOST TERMINALS, WITH
PWM MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANOTHER SHOWER. CEILINGS LOWER TONIGHT
WITH IFR IN MOST LOCATIONS WITH SOME FOG ALSO POSSIBLE. MVFR
CEILINGS PREVAIL ON WEDNESDAY, WITH SOME SHOWERS ALSO POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS PREVAIL TUESDAY WITH SOME FOG
ALSO POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM...FOG FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT LEADING TO LIFR
CONDITIONS AS RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER COULD LIMIT THIS DEVELOPMENT THREAT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH CLEARING FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS AS A COLD FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT. AREAS OF FOG
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NE ONSHORE FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATER THURSDAY EVENING.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ010-012>014.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...DUMONT
NEAR TERM...CLAIR
SHORT TERM...CLAIR
LONG TERM...DUMONT
AVIATION...CLAIR
MARINE...CLAIR
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