005
FXUS61 KGYX 011104
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
604 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME BUT DID INCREASE POPS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR THIS MORNING BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW. TRENDS
HAVE BEEN FOR A DRIER SYSTEM WITH WEAKER FORCING FOR ASCENT, SO
HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A
COATING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH, WITH MUCH LOWER CHANCES
NORTH OF THERE. OTHERWISE, TURNING COLDER TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
2. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
3. MILD CONDITIONS FOLLOW THE SYSTEM FOR LATE WEEK, BUT ANOTHER
SYSTEM IS THEN INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR A DRIER SYSTEM WITH WEAKER FORCING FOR
ASCENT FOR TODAY'S SYSTEM, SO HAVE LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A COATING WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH, WITH MUCH LESSER CHANCES NORTH OF THERE. OTHERWISE, TURNING
COLDER TONIGHT AND MONDAY. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EASTWARD DURING THE DAYTIME ON TUESDAY,
SPREADING MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DRY AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE
DEPARTING ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER SOME DAYTIME WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES, TEMPS WILL FALL AS SNOW BEGINS AND WET BULBING
OCCURS. THIS SNOW THEN SPREADS NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT TUESDAY, BUT
LIKELY DIMINISHES AS IT REACHES FAR NORTHERN AREAS.
SOME MIXING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS AS WARMER AIR
NUDGES IN FROM THE SOUTH, BUT OVERALL THE TREND ON THE MODELS
FOR THE LAST FEW RUNS HAS BEEN TO KEEP THE COOLER AIR MORE
ESTABLISHED, LIMITING MIXING. THE PRECIP THEN MOSTLY MOVES OUT
BY LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
MILD AIR LIKELY NUDGES NORTHWARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY, BUT JUST HOW FAR NORTHWARD REMAINS TO BE SEEN AS A
FRONT LINGERS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. LATE WINTER WARM UPS IN
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE A TENDENCY TO BE MORE SUPPRESSED AS
THEY APPROACH, SO WE'LL WATCH FOR THIS TREND OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES ON FRIDAY, AND HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE WIDESPREAD MIXED PRECIPITATION. OVERALL
THE SYSTEM LOOKS WARMER THAN THE TUESDAY NIGHT ONE, BUT HOW MUCH
COOL AIR REMAINS AT THE SURFACE WILL BE THE DETERMINING FACTOR
FOR THE PRECIP TYPE OUTCOME FROM THIS SYSTEM. WE'LL ALSO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THESE TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS, AS
THEY'LL LARGELY BE INFLUENCED BY THE EVENTS THAT PRECEDED THEM.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
CON/MHT/PSM/PWM FOR A PERIOD TODAY WITH LOCALIZED MVFR-IFR
VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, VFR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR INITIALLY, BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE TO IFR OR LOWER AS WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL OVERSPREADS
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW
SHOULD GRADUALLY END OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT. ALSO CAN'T RULE
OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF -PL/-FZRA OR EVEN RA AT MHT, CON, PSM,
AND PWM.
WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH ANY
LEFTOVER PRECIP COMING TO AN END IN THE MORNING. MAINLY VFR
OTHERWISE.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY: SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MIXED PRECIP AND IFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD.
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE OUTER WATERS, AND POSSIBLY ON
THE BAYS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY
IS ALSO LIKELY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY, WITH A FRONT CROSSING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY CROSSES THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY, AND THEN A FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW POSSIBLE NORTH
OF THE FRONT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...TUBBS/CLAIR/EKSTER
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