928
FXUS61 KGYX 210542
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1242 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING
A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE SQUALL FROM THE
MOUNTAINS NORTH. A COLD AIRMASS FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM TO START THE
WEEK. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW ARRIVES TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SOMEWHAT QUIETER AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
RETURNS FOR CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
THEN POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
-SNOW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A SNOW SQUALL IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER. THESE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS WITH NEAR
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.
-WESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION:
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC TODAY,
SENDING A SFC COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. THIS FRONT
IS PROGGED TO BE WELL OFFSHORE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT
CROSSES, MODEST PRESSURE FALLS COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW
SQUALL POSSIBLE. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH, THE VERTICAL COLUMN LOOKS
TO REMAIN TOO DRY BUT A FLURRY CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH WITH
LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST AND IN SOUTHERN NH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. WESTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 MPH ARE LIKELY, WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL A LITTLE COOLER.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING TO OUR WEST TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
DRY CONDITIONS AND COLDER LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
TEENS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
WILL SEND WINDCHILLS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
-INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, BRINGING POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO HOLIDAY TRAVEL.
-DRY AND COLD WEATHER LIKELY CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SNOW CHANCES ARRIVE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION:
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR A DRY BUT CHILLY MONDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH 20S/LOWER 30S
SOUTH UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK H5 S/WV TROF MAY THEN CROSS
MONDAY EVENING, BRINGING WITH IT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A
FLURRY OR SNOW SHOWER. LOWS WILL BE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE NORTH WITH TEENS SOUTH. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TOWARDS TUESDAY AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO EJECT SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND AS A POTENTIAL SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE GULF OF ME.
THE ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLE SUITE CONTINUES TO BE MORE BULLISH
WITH THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM THAN THE GFS/GEFS, WHICH SUPPRESSES
THE SYSTEM MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH WHILE ALSO SHOWING WEAKENING AND
LITTLE TO NO SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT. THE AI GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION THOUGH AND GIVEN THE SYSTEM WILL
BE TRAVELING THROUGH A REGION OF GENERALLY FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS, TEND TO SIDE WITH THE SNOWIER SOLUTION. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS CURRENTLY LOOK TO FAVOR THIS SYSTEM AS A POTENTIAL
ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT WITH 3-5" THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. THE MAIN
TAKEAWAY THOUGH IS THAT THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
TRAVEL IMPACTS ON TUESDAY FOR THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY, ESPECIALLY
LATER IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY
LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS INTO THE TEENS AND 20S.
CHRISTMAS EVE AND CHRISTMAS DAY CURRENTLY LOOK MAINLY DRY AND
COOL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S/30S AND LOWS INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BUT SIGNIFICANTLY
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT THIS TIME RANGE.
AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING AT KHIE THIS MORNING DUE TO
PASSING SNOW SHOWERS AND LOWER VIZ. W WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT 10-15
KTS, GUSTING TO 25 KTS. LLWS IS LIKELY THROUGH MID-DAY AT
WS020/21045KT. SN IS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES ON TUE AND
PERSIST THROUGH TUE NIGHT, BRINGING POSSIBLE IFR-LIFR
RESTRICTIONS WITH S-SW WINDS. WINDS WILL BECOME NW ON WED WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BOTH WED AND THU.
SNOW IS POSSIBLE TOWARDS LATE WEEK BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME RANGE.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...WESTERLY GALES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING ON TUESDAY. SEAS OF 6-10 FT ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE
BAYS WITH 1-4 FT IN THE BAYS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF GALES AND INCREASED
SEAS ARE THEN POSSIBLE TOWARDS WED.
LONG TERM...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST LATE IN THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES, BRINGING PERHAPS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
INCREASED WINDS AND SEAS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ151-153.
NEAR TERM...TUBBS
SHORT TERM...TUBBS
LONG TERM...TUBBS
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