557
FXUS61 KGYX 191933
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
333 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO WANE FOR
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA HAS
BEEN TRENDING QUICKER, LIMITING WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES AS
WELL AS POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS.
2. TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE
COAST AND INTERIOR, BUT HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HOT AS
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WITH A QUICK COOL
DOWN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
3. THE SECOND-HALF OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER CONDITIONS. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT
HAS BEEN UNSTABLE SINCE MORNING SURFACE INVERSION MIXED OUT. THE
RAPID RISE IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING WAS A TELLTALE SIGN OF
THIS, AND A BUILDING CU FIELD HAS BEEN INDICATIVE OF SOME
FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARRIVING TO THE WEST. GENERAL
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE, WITH A
INTERMITTENT FIELD OF 30KTS OF 0-3 AND 0-6KM SHEAR. AMID THIS,
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE VERY HIGH, 8 TO 9 C/KM. HOWEVER WAA
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS ARE LIMITING MID LEVEL RATES TO AROUND 5
OR 6 C/KM. THIS AND FORCING ARE THE TWO ITEMS HOLDING US BACK
FROM STRONGER CONFIDENCE/WORDING AS FOR A SEVERE THREAT. THIS
LIMITS COVERAGE, BUT STILL WORTH TO MENTION THE ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY, STILL HOLD. ONE IS A POTENTIAL LINEAR SEGMENT OR
COMPLEX OF MULTICELLS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN NH, AND
ANOTHER TOWARDS THE MIDCOAST. WOULD EXPECT STORMS TO FEATURE
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY TO DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
UNLESS QUENCHED BY A PASSING SHOWER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW
TO LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING. SW BREEZE CONTINUES OVERNIGHT, AND
THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVELS MIXED, LIMITING FURTHER
DECOUPLING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NH AND THROUGH THE ME LAKES
REGION. THIS OFFERS LITTLE OVERNIGHT RECOVERY AFTER A DAY THAT
SAW MANY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
WEDNESDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AT BEING
NOT AS WARM AS TUESDAY. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE VERY WARM LOW
LEVEL AIRMASS SHIFTING EAST, AND A COLD FRONT IMPINGING ON THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE NW. EVEN STILL, A SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY
OF HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS ARRIVES BEHIND WEDNESDAY'S COLD FRONT. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL CRASH TO NEAR OR BELOW 0C FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, INDICATING A SEASONABLY STRONG COLD
FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CREST OVER THE REGION ON FRIDAY,
ALLOWING FOR A TRANQUIL END TO THE WEEK. WHILE IT WILL BE RATHER
COOL AIRMASS ALOFT, STRONG SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT DEEP
MIXING UP TO 850 MB ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS
SHOULD STILL RECOVER TO THE 60S BOTH DAYS IN THE WARM SPOTS,
WITH 50S IN THE NORTH/MOUNTAINS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS COMBINED
WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD MAKE FOR A PLEASANT TWO DAYS.
BY THIS WEEKEND THE UPPER-AIR CONFIGURATION WILL SHIFT AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA, AND A LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS LIFTING TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND FROM THE CENTRAL
U.S. KEY UNCERTAINTIES AT THIS TIMEFRAME ARE THE POSITION AND
STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE, AND IF/WHEN IT CAN SUPPRESS
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF MAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE. MODEL SPREAD REMAINS
HIGH AT THIS RANGE LEADING TO UNCERTAIN IMPACTS, BUT A GENERAL
THEME OF INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEARS LIKELY AS WE
HEAD DEEPER INTO THE WEEKEND. FINALLY, WITH THE PLACEMENT OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST,
TEMPERATURES MAY TREND COOLER WITH TIME GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE CHILLY WATERS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...SHRA AND SOME TS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH 00Z AT MOST TERMINALS. VFR IS EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THESE,
BUT RAIN COULD CAUSE BRIEF MVFR VIS. FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS AND TOWARDS AUG/RKD. THESE WILL
MOVE OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING, ENDING PRECIP CHANCES AT 00Z. A
PERIOD OF LLWS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN.
CHANCE OF FOG OR LOW STRATUS AGAIN TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
TERMINALS, MAINLY RKD. GUSTS INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING,
WITH THE CHANCE OF SHRA FOR SOUTHERN NH TERMINALS AND PWM.
EXPECT A NW WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME
GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: INCREASING RA CHANCES SW TO NE,
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING. MVFR TO IFR CIGS MAY
RESULT.
MARINE
A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL NEAR THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOULD GENERALLY BE WEAKENING
OVER THE WATERS, BUT LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED STRONG WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, WAVE HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING, 3 TO 6 FT, MAINLY TOWARDS THE ME MIDCOAST.
THESE ARE SET TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY, SUBSIDING AS
WINDS SHIFT FROM A PASSING COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE THEN
MOVES OVER THE REGION FOR LATE WEEK, RESULTING IN MAINLY
CONDITIONS BELOW SCA OVER THE WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MEZ023>028.
NH...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ013-014.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NHZ012>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ150-152.
DISCUSSION...BARKER/CORNWELL
AVIATION...CORNWELL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page