773
FXUS61 KGYX 121829
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
229 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. SNOW SHOWERS AND SHOWERS ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH PRECIPITATION LIKELY CONTINUING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE COAST TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN AND PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
2. A LOW MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR, BRINGING A QUICK ROUND OF
SNOW. UP TO 3-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
AND IN CENTRAL MAINE, WITH 1-2 INCH TOTALS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
3. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPEARS LIKELY TO BRING SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A WEAK AND DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW MAY CLIP
SOME COASTAL AREAS LATER ON THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE US,
ARRIVING IN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY EVENING. COLD AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE AND SNOW WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. THE LOW LOOKS TO
REDEVELOP OFF OF THE GULF OF MAINE, ALLOWING FOR A MORE
ORGANIZED ROUND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL ONCE THE SNOW MAKES IT INTO
MAINE. SNOW SHOULD LARGELY EXIT THE REGION BY SATURDAY MORNING,
THOUGH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
WE WILL SEE RISING HEIGHTS TO START THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE
NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO APPROACH AND WE TRANSITION INTO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO OUR WEST AND LIFT NORTH
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE
IN THE EVENING OR NIGHT TIME HOURS. THIS FAR OUT, PRECIPITATION
TYPE IS A BIT UNCERTAIN FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT BUT A WINTRY
MIX SEEMS LIKELY FOR SOME AREAS. A CONTINUED PUSH OF LOW LEVEL
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD EVENTUALLY TRANSITION PRECIPITATION TO
ALL RAIN BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY MOVING OUT
BY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MOISTURE CONTENT FOR THIS EARLY WEEK STORM IS IMPRESSIVE AND
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE 00Z NAEFS MEAN
PRECIPITABLE WATER FORECAST FOR 18Z MONDAY IS CURRENTLY IN THE 99TH
OR HIGHER PERCENTILE FOR ALL OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE.
ADDITIONALLY, PERCENTILES ARE SIMILAR WHEN LOOKING AT 925MB/850MB
SPECIFIC HUMIDITY AND INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT FIELDS. THUS,
ALL SIGNS POINT TO THIS SYSTEM HAVING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO SOME PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SEEM LIKELY. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD WORK TO FLUSH OUT MOST OF THE REMAINING ICE IN THE
RIVERS WITH SOME CHANCES FOR FLOODING, MAINLY DUE TO THE ICE JAM
POTENTIAL. WHILE THE ANAMOLOUS MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND LEAD TO
SOME HEAVY RAIN, THE RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL KEEP TOTALS MITIGATED SOMEWHAT. OVERALL LIQUID TOTALS LOOK TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE ONE TO TWO INCH RANGE AS THE NBM IS SUGGESTING A
50 TO 70 PERCENT CHANCE FOR AN INCH OF RAIN OR GREATER, BUT ONLY
MAXING OUT AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR TWO INCHES.
ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS NAEFS 850MB WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE OR ABOVE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
MERIDIONAL WIND COMPONENTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO
BE QUITE ANOMALOUS WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW. THUS, WE MAY HAVE TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR EVENTUAL WIND
HEADLINES AND A LOW POWER OUTAGE THREAT ON MONDAY DEPENDING ON HOW
THE FORECAST EVOLVES.
AFTER THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM MOVES OUT, THE REST OF THE WEEK APPEARS
FAIRLY QUIET WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF WEAK WAVES FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH AND COLDER AIR.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
18Z THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. VFR
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS DETEORIATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS SNOW STARTS TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY: IFR WITH SNOW LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN
TERMINALS, WITH MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR LIKELY RETURNS TO ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT HIE
WHICH MAY HOLD MVFR CEILINGS IN UPSLOPE FLOW.
SUNDAY: VFR, NO SIG WX. CLOUDS THICKEN AND LOWER IN AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: MVFR TO IFR CIGS WITH ANY WINTRY MIX
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN MONDAY MORNING. RAIN AND GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS
LIKELY MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT: IFR LIKELY CONTINUES WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY: BECOMING MVFR TO VFR THROUGH THE DAY AS PRECIPITATION
MOVES OUT AND CLOUDS START TO DIMINISH.
MARINE
SCA NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
WINDS SLACKEN BELOW SCA LEVELS AND SHIFT TO SOUTHERLIES BY THE
END OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO
AT LEAST SCA LEVELS BY FRIDAY EVENING. SEAS OF 3-8FT ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH MORE 3-5FT WAVES IN THE BAYS
AND 6-8FT WAVES ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS.
MARGINAL SOUTHERLY GALES ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WESTERLY GALES ARE THEN MORE LIKELY
SATURDAY BEHIND THE PASSING SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTHEASTERLY GALES ARE THEN LIKELY BY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ150>152-154.
DISCUSSION...PALMER/HARGROVE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page