664
FXUS61 KGYX 190643
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
143 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE COME INTO BETTER FOCUS FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DIFFICULT TRAVEL IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR THE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COMMUTE AS
SNOW PUSHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
WESTERN MAINE IN TIME FOR FRIDAY EVENING COMMUTE WITH SEVERAL
INCHES POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING.
2. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS OF A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY. CURRENT TRENDS IN GUIDANCE ARE FAVORING A LESS
IMPACTFUL SOLUTION, BUT NOTHING CAN BE COMPLETELY DISCOUNTED AT
THIS TIME RANGE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH FRIDAY MORNING AS A COMPACT
UPPER LOW ROLLS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW WILL OCCLUDE OVER MICHIGAN FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH A
SECONDARY LOW FORMING NEAR LONG ISLAND, NY FRIDAY EVENING. THE
LATEST SUITE OF MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A PUSH
OF WAA FROM THE PRIMARY LOW WILL RESULT IN MODERATE FGEN FORCING AT
700 MB ADVANCING SW TO NE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY. THIS
WILL PRODUCE A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH
RATES AROUND 0.5 TO 1 INCH PER HOUR THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SW MAINE FRIDAY
EVENING. BEFORE SNOW BREAKS OUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FOR ALL AREAS SOUTH OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WHILE INITIAL SNOWFALL MAY NOT EFFECTIVELY ACCUMULATE, SNOWFALL
RATES WILL LIKELY COMPENSATE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW IMPACTING
TRAVEL ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NH BY THE AFTERNOON AND SW
MAINE BY FRIDAY EVENING. A WARM NOSE ALOFT WILL CREEP INTO
SOUTHERN NH LATE FRIDAY EVENING THAT MAY ALLOW FOR SNOW TO MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO A PERIOD OF SLEET.
THE INITIAL BAND OF SNOW WILL WEAKEN AS PUSHES NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL MAINE FRIDAY EVENING. THE COMPACT UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE
OVERHEAD FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE SECONDARY LOW
TRACKS EAST TO A POSITION SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOURCE OF LIFT WHILE GOOD MOISTURE REMAINS
WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. MOST MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER FAR WESTERN MAINE INTO NH THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING THAT WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED LIGHT SNOWFALL. MUCH OF THE
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY END NE TO SW BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GOING FORECAST BRINGS 4 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT OF MAINE. AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
NH ARE CLOSER TO 4 INCHES DUE TO THE MIXING WITH SLEET, WHILE
AMOUNTS HERE COULD INCREASE IF PRECIPITATION STAYS ALL SNOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
A TROUGH BEGINS DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY SPARKING
CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST MAKING FOR A MOSTLY DRY DAY
WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW BEGINS
MOVING NORTHEAST UP THE COAST WITH MANY ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTING HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS IT MOSTLY AT SEA. HOWEVER, THERE
ARE SOME NOTABLE RECENT TRENDS IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE
WAVE OF INTEREST THAT ULTIMATELY KICK STARTS THIS IS JUST COMING
INTO RANGE OF THE RAOB NETWORK AND REALLY DOESN'T ENTER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST UNTIL LATER TODAY. THAT BEING SAID WITH WHAT
LIMITED RECON DATA THE MODELS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO INCORPORATE,
THEY HAVE TRENDED THE RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS MORE WESTERLY.
THIS WOULD ULTIMATELY ALLOW THE LOW TO END UP CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND RESULT IN A GREATER CHANCE FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL FOR THE NORTHEAST. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE CLUSTERED WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
BENCHMARK, THERE ARE STILL MORE THAN A FEW MEMBERS NEARBY. IT
WOULD BE UNWISE TO WRITE THIS ONE OFF JUST YET UNTIL IT CAN BE
SAMPLED FURTHER. PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN AN INCH OF SNOW
ON THE NEW HAMPSHIRE SEACOAST FROM THE GEFS HAVE TRENDED UP TO A
30-40% CHANCE. EVEN THE EURO ENSEMBLE, WHICH HAS WANTED NOTHING
TO DO WITH THIS STORM FROM THE BEGINNING, IS PAINTING SOME 20%
PROBABILITIES NOW IN THE NEW HAMPSHIRE SEACOAST. NBM
PROBABILITIES IN THE 19/01Z RUN HAVE NOT BUDGED GIVING THE
SEACOAST LESS THAN A 10% CHANCE OF GREATER THAN AN INCH AND LESS
THAN 50% FOR MEASURABLE SNOW. THIS SEEMS LESS REALISTIC TO ME
GIVEN WHAT HAS BEEN DISCUSSED. THE REASON I FOCUS ON THE
SEACOAST IS BECAUSE THAT IS THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE
PROBABILITIES FOR NOW, EMPHASIZING THE MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS STILL OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER, IF A WESTERN TREND IN THE 500
MB PATTERN CONTINUES TO HOLD I WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
THAT TRICKLE DOWN TO A WESTWARD TREND IN THE LOW TRACK. PLENTY
TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO EITHER STAY LOCKED IN OR FILL BACK IN
FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM, SO SHOULD SEE MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A SIGNAL FOR A CLIPPER SYSTEM IS STARTING TO EMERGE
AS EARLY AS WEDENSDAY NIGHT, BUT THERE IS A LOT RIDING ON HOW
THINGS EVOLVE WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM SO BEST TO JUST TAKE IT ONE
AT A TIME.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH CLOUDS
THICKENING AND LOWERING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH TOWARDS FRIDAY
MORNING.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LOWER FROM SW TO NE WITH SNOW
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IFR/LIFR IS LIKELY
ACROSS SOUTHERN NH BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH REMAINING TAF SITES
DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR FRIDAY EVENING. SNOW CONTINUES FRIDAY
NIGHT.
SATURDAY...SNOWFALL RATES DECREASE SATURDAY MORNING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: SNOW TAPERS OFF SATURDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR, WHICH SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING SNOW
TO THE AREA, BUT IT ALSO MAY TRACK OUT TO SEA LEAVING THE AREA DRY.
MARINE
NORTH WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 4-5 FEET WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH DAY BREAK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH TODAY FOR QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE WATERS INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF CAPE COD FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
NE WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 KTS INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND
20 KTS WHILE SEAS LINGER AROUND 5 FEET.
CONDITIONS IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD ARE GOING TO DEPEND
HIGHLY ON THE TRACK OF STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST
COAST. AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY AS WAVE
HEIGHTS BUILD TO GREATER THAN 5FT SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MIDWEEK. WIND GUSTS ARE GOING TO BE MORE TRACK
DEPENDENT. I WOULD EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST GUSTS 25-30KTS AS IT
MAKES ITS PASS, BUT IF IT MAKES A CLOSER PASS GALES ARE
POSSIBLE. ELEVATED WIND GUSTS WOULD TAPER OFF TUESDAY MORNING.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
DISCUSSION...BARON/SCHROETER
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