510
FXUS61 KGYX 272316
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
716 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AT THIS TIME FOR THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER THIS EVENING. COOLER WEATHER ARRIVES
ON THURSDAY, WITH SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM.
2. SOAKING RAINFALL AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. HIKERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR WINTER CONDITIONS ABOVE 3000
FEET.
3. UNSETTLED PATTERN PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, ALLOWING FOR WARMER
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF IT'S PASSAGE. THESE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO COME DOWN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS PEAK HEATING WANES AND
COLD AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
SHOULD NOT BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.
THURSDAY WILL FEEL NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
THAT BROUGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT TODAY WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK FORCING TO SETUP ACROSS
THE SEACOAST AND COASTAL PLAIN. WITH CLEARER SKIES IN THE
MORNING BRINGING DIURNAL HEATING, THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW PULSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HI-RES
GUIDANCE IS SURPRISINGLY CONFIDENT IN THE STORM ENVIRONMENT,
WITH BOTH THE NAMNEST AND HRRR INDICATING AN ENVIRONMENT WITH
AROUND 200-400J OF CAPE AND SOME DECENT SHEAR. THE INVERTED-V
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A FEW GUSTY WINDS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT FROM STORMS THAT DEVELOP BUT GENERALLY THIS SETUP IS NOT
VERY CONDUCIVE FOR IMPACTFUL SEVERE WEATHER. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN A COMPACT UPPER LOW DIVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF OF MAINE. A NOTABLE TREND
AMONGST AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR A
FASTER SYSTEM WITH THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OCCURING FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY WILL START OFF MOSTLY DRY WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S NORTH TO 60S SOUTH WITH
RAIN LIKELY BY SUNSET. THE UPPER LOW WILL CROSS CLOSE TO OVERHEAD
FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING A COLD RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THIS
UPPER LOW WILL BRING ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPS
DROPPING AS LOW -4C. BUFKIT PROFILES SHOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS MAY
FALL AS LOW AS 2000 FEET EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WHILE THE NBM
SHOWS SNOW LEVELS AS LOW AS 3000 FEET. WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME
VARIABILITY IN THE LOCATION OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT, IT
REMAINS LIKELY THAT THE HIGHEST PEAKS WILL SEE SOME ACCUMULATING
SNOW WITH WINTER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ABOVE 3000 FEET CENTERED
ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. AT LOWER ELEVATIONS A
COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH
THE LATEST NBM CARRYING 90 PERCENT POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POPS
DECREASING TO 20-40 PERCENT SATURDAY EVENING. AN AXIS OF
RAINFALL TO AROUND 1-2 INCHES IS LIKELY, ALTHOUGH THE PLACEMENT
OF THIS AXIS SHOWS SOME VARIABILITY WITH GOING FORECAST ALIGNING
IT FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE MID COAST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
DECREASE TO THE SOUTHWEST, ALTHOUGH THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE
AXIS OF GREATEST RAINFALL SHIFTS. LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE
GULF OF MAINE WILL ALSO BRING RAW NORTHEAST WINDS GUSTING 25 TO
35 MPH ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN WITH HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
THE FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM LEAVES SOME ROOM FOR
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NEVERTHELESS IT WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S
WITH THE SUMMIT OF MT WASHINGTON STAYING BELOW FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
AS ONE UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS SATURDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL
DROP SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE NUDGING
IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THIS WAVE MAY ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE
WAY OF SUN SUNDAY MORNING AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES. THE
APPROACHING WAVE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS PERSISTING
THROUGH MONDAY. ENSEMBLES SUGGEST TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY WITH A FAINT SIGNAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AT PWM AND PSM. MVFR AND VFR CIGS ARE LIKELY ELSEWHERE
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK:
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. LOWERING CIGS AND SHOWERS LIKELY BRING A
TREND TOWARDS MVFR FROM NW TO SE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CIGS LIKELY BRING
AT LEAST IFR. SOME IMPROVEMENT FROM NW TO SE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
NE WINDS GUST UP TO 25 KTS ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY: SHOWERS BRING POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
WINDS WILL SLACKEN THIS EVENING AND GENERALLY BECOME NORTHERLIES.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2-4FT.
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY. STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BRING POTENTIAL GALES THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AND SEAS QUICKLY
BUILDING 6-9 FEET. WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
GRADUALLY DROP BELOW 25 KTS WHILE SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY DROP BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/PALMER/SCHROETER
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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