455  
FXUS61 KGYX 110608  
AFDGYX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME  
208 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
CLEARING WILL PREVAIL TODAY BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
ARE LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE  
BERMUDA HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SUPPLYING  
MOSTLY DRY AND WARM WEATHER. THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN FOR THE START  
OF THE NEW WORK WEEK, WITH A RETURN OF HIT AND MISS SHOWERS.  
HEAT WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BY THE MIDDLE OF THE NEXT WEEK ONCE  
AGAIN.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
 
 
TODAY WILL SEE THE SLOW ERODING OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG  
AGAIN. DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION...LARGELY  
TIED TO TERRAIN HEATING SINCE WE LACK A MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE  
LIFTING MECHANISM. THERE IS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED MCV PRESENT  
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AT THIS HOUR...AND THAT COULD SPARK MORE  
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CURRENT MODEL FORECAST HAVE IT OVER NY IN  
THE AFTERNOON...BUT IT WILL WARRANT SOME MONITORING THIS  
MORNING TO SEE IF THAT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. AFTER  
COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS, DID INCREASE POPS ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BASED ON  
LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE RUNS.  
 
WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN EASTERLY TODAY...AND  
SO TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW  
YESTERDAY. THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH  
HIGHS INTO THE 70S WHILE INLAND LOCATIONS WARM INTO THE LOWER TO  
MIDDLE 80S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
 
 
ANY LINGERING CONVECTION SHOULD END BY MID TO LATE EVENING  
TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. THE LATEST HREF  
INDICATES THAT LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LIKELY MOVE BACK  
ONSHORE AND IT COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD GIVEN LIGHT FLOW AND  
THE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO  
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.  
 
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE MORE STUBBORN TO SCATTER OUT ON SATURDAY  
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL ALSO  
INTRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS  
AND RUMBLES OF THUNDER. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S ACROSS  
MUCH OF WESTERN ME DUE TO THE LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MARINE DECK  
WHILE WESTERN NH MAY WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
200 AM LONG TERM UPDATE... LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LATEST NBM SUITE  
OF MODEL GUIDANCE. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN IS IN STORE WITH  
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S/LOWER 90S LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK. DEW POINTS CURRENTLY DO NOT LOOK TO BE QUITE AS HIGH  
THOUGH AS COMPARED TO THE LAST STRETCH OF HOT WEATHER.  
 
PREVIOUSLY...  
OVERVIEW: HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH  
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, BUT WILL NEED TO  
WATCH FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS NEAR STALLED BOUNDARY TO  
THE WEST. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ORGANIZE ALONG A  
INCOMING COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL  
LEAD TO BROAD RIDGING INTO MIDWEEK, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER  
POTENTIAL STRETCH OF DAY WITH HOT TEMPERATURES.  
 
DETAILS:  
 
SUNDAY-MONDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT  
LAKES SUNDAY. AHEAD, ONSHORE FLOW MODERATES TEMPERATURES W/ AREAS  
REMAINING DRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. POPS BEGIN TO INCREASE  
INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS WEAK FORCING ARRIVES WHILE ANY DAYTIME  
INSTABILITY REMAINS. PRESENTLY LITTLE CONVICTION ON COVERAGE HERE AS  
LOW LEVELS ARE DRY.  
 
PRESENT RAIN CHANCES FOCUS ON SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH  
THE FRONTAL APPROACH THROUGH MON EVENING. BECAUSE THE PARENT LOW  
DRIVES NORTH AND OCCLUDES OVER HUDSON BAY SUNDAY, FORWARD  
PROGRESSION SLOWS. THE RESULT IS PRECIP INFLUENCE FROM THE BOUNDARY  
POTENTIALLY THROUGH MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE  
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BRING THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER,  
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BRING THE  
CHANCE FOR A FEW RUMBLES OVERNIGHT AND EVENINGS AS WELL.  
 
ON THE HEELS OF THAT WEATHER MAKER, A RETURN TO HOT TEMPERATURES  
APPEARS LIKELY SHOULD THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.  
DAYTIME HIGHS INTO MIDWEEK COULD AGAIN TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO  
LOWER 90S WITH DEWPOINTS REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
SHORT TERM...LOW CLOUDS AND FG WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN IFR TO  
LIFR RESTRICTIONS THROUGH AROUND 13Z THIS MORNING BEFORE  
IMPROVING BACK TO VFR AT MOST SITES LATER TODAY. THE EXCEPTION  
MAY BE AT KRKD WHERE MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
DAY. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND  
EARLY EVENING, MAINLY OVER INLAND TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE AT  
5-15 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. LOW CLOUDS AND FG RETURN TONIGHT WITH  
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS LIKELY UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW.  
SLOW IMPROVEMENTS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON SATURDAY BUT SOME  
LINGERING RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND  
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA. NO LLWS IS ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF ANY  
TSRA.  
 
LONG TERM...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY  
MORNING DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND FG. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR  
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY  
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA AND FG.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS  
THROUGH THE PERIOD. MARINE FOG IS EXPECTED THOUGH, ESPECIALLY AT  
NIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.  
 
LONG TERM...CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE FOR MARINE STRATUS AND FOG TO CAUSE  
REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
ME...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH  
THIS EVENING FOR MEZ027-028.  
NH...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
NEAR TERM...TUBBS  
SHORT TERM...TUBBS  
LONG TERM...CORNWELL/TUBBS  
 
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