401
FXUS61 KGYX 160019
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
819 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THEIR WAY DOWN WITH THIN HIGH CLOUD AND NEAR
CALM WIND. MANY LOCATIONS HAVE FALLEN 6 TO 10 DEGREES OVER THE
PAST HOUR, PARTICULARLY INLAND. HAVE ADJUSTED THIS TREND OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOUR BEFORE CLOUDS THICKEN.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE CROSSES ON FRIDAY, BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL
TO THE AREA.
2. A SEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS PUSHES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM TO
START THE WEEKEND, WITH WINTRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
3. MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE NORTHEAST.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING, AND QUICKLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE, LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, WITH RAIN PUSHING INTO WESTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE BY SUNRISE
TOMORROW.
PERIODS OF RAIN AND SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH DURING THE MORNING,
AND BECOME MORE SHOWERY BY THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE DAY, WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING
THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME
ADDITIONAL POP UP SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WHERE A FEW PEAKS OF SUN
HELP TEMPS PUSH INTO THE MID 60S DURING THE DAY. OVERALL AROUND
A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, WITH A LITTLE LESS ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS, AND A LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
ON SATURDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING WESTWARD INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS SETS UP A GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WIND, AND TRANSPORTS
A CANADIAN AIRMASS THAT'S COLD FOR MID OCTOBER. WIND GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME, WHILE HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE NORTH, TO ONLY NEAR 50 ALONG THE COAST.
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, WINTERTIME CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE UPSLOPE TERRAIN, TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS, AND WIND
CHILLS WELL BELOW ZERO ARE ALL EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS OVER 100 MPH
ARE EXPECTED ON MOUNT WASHINGTON ON SATURDAY. ANY HIKERS OR
THOSE ABOVE 2500FT SHOULD PLAN FOR WINTERTIME CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY MORNING
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT A FEW
FLURRIES ARE LIKELY TO DRIFT DOWNWIND OF THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THE DAY WHILE GRADUALLY DRYING UP.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN BY FAR BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
SEASON ACROSS THE AREA. WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. LOWS BELOW FREEZING
ARE EXPECTED TO THE COASTLINE ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND LOOKS TO
STAY NOSED IN THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF NEXT
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MILD DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES, AND LIKELY SOME PRETTY CHILLY NIGHTS DUE TO
RADIATIONAL COOLING, AS WELL AS DRY WEATHER.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID-50S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, BUT AFTER A RAW
SATURDAY THIS WILL PROBABLY FEEL COMFORTABLE. AFTERWARDS, MOST
DAYS SHOULD FEATURE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 50S AND 60S. PERIODS OF CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SUBTLE TROUGHING ALOFT, BUT THE MIDLEVEL AIRMASS LOOKS VERY DRY
WHICH WILL PRECLUDE ANY THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE GENERALLY AROUND NORMAL BEING IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID-30S NORTH TO SOUTH, BUT OF COURSE ANY NIGHT
WHERE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TAKES PLACE, CAN END UP QUITE
COLD. LOOKING AT LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES 850-700 MB TEMPERATURES
STAY RIGHT AROUND THE 0 C MARK THROUGH THIS STRETCH SO CERTAINLY
SOME COLD NIGHTS COULD COME TO FRUITION, BUT NOTHING CRAZY.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...VFR CONTINUES THROUGH MIDNIGHT LOCAL.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN THICKENING AND LOWERING AMID ONSHORE FLOW, AND
MOST INTERIOR LOCATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CIGS BECOMING DOMINANT SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. EXPECT A HARD CRASH TO IFR CIGS FOR SOUTHERN NH
THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH SOUTHERN ME FOLLOWING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIE MAY BE THE ONLY TAF THAT STAYS VFR/MVFR THROUGH
FRI, OTHER THAN A PERIOD OF RA BR. THERE IS A WEAK SIGNAL FOR A
PERIOD OF BR/FG FOLLOWING AN INITIAL ROUND OF RAIN IN THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH A WIND SHIFT. CIGS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
TREND VFR INTO THE EVENING, BUT WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW.
OUTLOOK:
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS COULD REMAIN FOR HIE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH -SHRASN, OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED. THE MOST NOTABLE
FEATURE FOR THE DAY WILL BE NW GUSTS 25 TO 30 KTS, SLACKENING IN
THE EVENING.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF VFR
CONDITIONS WITH NO SIG WX. WIND WILL TEND TO FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS.
MARINE
SOUTHERLY WINDS FRESHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT, WITH SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS BY MID MORNING ON
FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH SCA
CONDITIONS CONTINUING IN NORTHWESTERLY WINDS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS GRADUALLY EASE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE WATERS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR ANZ150>154.
DISCUSSION...BARON/CLAIR/CORNWELL
AVIATION...CORNWELL
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