609
FXUS61 KGYX 140245
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1045 PM EDT THU MAR 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA DRY TODAY THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON AN UPWARD
TREND RISING WELL ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND AN ELEVATED RISK FOR ICE JAM FLOODING.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
1040 PM UPDATE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE CIRRUS IS
THINNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD FOR LUNAR ECLIPSE VIEWING
LATE TONIGHT EVEN IF IT MAY BE THROUGH SOME THIN CLOUDS.
630 PM UPDATE...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GOING FORECAST AS IT
REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUSLY...
A WEAK COASTAL FRONT HAS BROUGHT A LOW CLOUD DECK INTO THE
MAINE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS, WITH A HIGHER CLOUD DECK
ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THIS IS CURRENTLY THE CLOUD DECK THAT IS
BLANKETING MUCH OF NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH OVERCAST SKIES AT THE
MOMENT. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING, OVERCAST SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD.
OVERNIGHT, MID AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD. ONCE THESE CLOUDS ARE OUT OF THE REGION, PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPS, WITH FOG CONTINUING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THERE MAY BE A
WINDOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT (2-4AM) WHERE SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR AND FOGLESS, ALLOWING FOR THE LUNAR ECLIPSE TO BE MORE
VISIBLE. LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO SEE FAVORABLE VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE ECLIPSE.
CALM WINDS AND SKIES CLEARING TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE A LITTLE COLDER, WITH LOWS IN THE MID-20S
EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL HELP PREVENT THE ENVIRONMENT
FROM MIXING AND BRING SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
MAINE TOMORROW. ANY FOG SHOULD MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
A RIDGE OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BUILD AND MOVE EASTWARD,
GRADUALLY BRINGING A WARMER AIRMASS INTO THE NORTHEAST US. CALM
SURFACE WINDS AND CLEARER SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO
REBOUND QUICKLY DURING THE DAY. MOST AREAS ARE BOUND TO BREAK 50F ON
FRIDAY. THIS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF MAINE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD PROVIDE MOISTURE, LOW-LEVEL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY OVER THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS, PLUS COLD SEA-
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL HELP CONSTRUCT A
DENSE LOW STRATUS/FOG DECK. DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD STAY CONTAINED WITHIN THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF OF MAINE.
THESE CLOUDS PROGRESSIVELY EXPAND OVERNIGHT, REACHING THE COAST BY
MIDNIGHT AND THEN THE KENNEBEC RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY MORNING.
THESE APPROACHING CLOUDS WILL HELP MUFFLE LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
NIGHT, WITH LOWS LARGELY FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING SOUTH OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
1040 PM UPDATE...LONG TERM FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH
VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SUNDAY/MONDAY WET SYSTEM.
PREVIOUSLY...
STRONG RIDGING HELPS PUSH WARM AIR POLEWARD OUT OF THE DEEP
SOUTH. THIS RIDGING IS BEING HELPED BY DEEPENING AND
INTENSIFYING TOUGH OVER THE W CONUS. EVENTUALLY THIS TROUGH
SHIFTS NE FROM AZ TO THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
MERGING WITH LARGER CLOSED 500 MB LOW NEAR JAMES BAY, WHICH WILL
BRING IN SOME RAIN ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA, SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THIS COOLS THINGS A LITTLE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT STILL TEMPS
RUN ABOVE NORMAL. BUT ANOTHER 50 MB TROUGH IN W NOAM, WILL HELP
BUILD ANOTHER RIDGE INTO THE NEW ENGLAND FOR MID-LATE WEEK, AND
ANOTHER SPELL OF WARMER WEATHER.
SATURDAY IS A SOMEWHAT TRICKY, BECAUSE WE WILL START OFF WITH
WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LIKELY SOME FOG AND LOW CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY
ON THE COAST. HOWEVER, TDS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL LIKELY NOT
RISE WITH THE TEMPS AND S WIND INCREASES AFTER SUNRISE. SO, I
HAVE FOLLOWED THE MODELS AND WENT WITH A MORE OPTIMISTIC SKY
COVER FORECAST, AS I THINK FLOW SHOWS A DECENT ENOUGH W
COMPONENT THAT IT WILL MIX SOME DRIER DOWN. ALTHOUGH, I THINK
THE MID COAST AND PEN BAY AREA WILL STAY SOCKED IN MOST, IF NOT
ALL OF SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 50S, COOLEST IN ON THE MID
COAST AND WARMEST IN THE CT VALLEY AND INTERIOR S NH, WHERE A
FEW PLACES MAY HIT 60. WINDS FALL OFF ST EVENING, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR COASTAL FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP, WHICH SHOULD
EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND LATER SAT NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME DZ FROM THE FOOTHILLS TO THE COAST. LOW
RANGE FROM AROUND 40 IN CENTRAL ME AND THE ME MTNS TO THE UPPER
40S IN THE SRN HALF OF NH.
ON SUNDAY, I THINK FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO S, MAYBE SSE, AND WILL
INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP LOW CLOUDS, AND
MAYBE SOME FOG ACROSS ALL BUT THE AREAS N OF THE THE MTNS AND
MAYBE PARTS OF THE CT VALLEY. EVEN WITHOUT LOW CLOUDS THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO KEEP THESE AREAS MOSTLY
CLOUDY AS WELL. DESPITE THE CLOUDS THE S FLOW WILL HELP ADVECT
EVEN WARMER INTO THE CWA AND HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER
50S ACROSS THE MTNS OF ME AND NH ANS WELL MUCH OF EXCLUDING THE
INTERIOR SW. FOR THIS AREA AND THE S HALF OF NH, EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOW MID 60S. SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM THE APPROACHING STAYS
WEAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
OVER NH AND THE ME MTNS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
SHORT TERM...
VFR EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY
LOWER RESTRICTIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN NH AND INTERIOR YORK COUNTY EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING. ANY FOG SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE LATE MORNING, WITH
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. FRIDAY
NIGHT, A DENSE CLOUD BANK IS LIKELY TO MOVE IN, LOWERING
RESTRICTIONS TO AT LEAST IFR AT PSM, PWM, RKD. BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, THESE LOWER RESTRICTIONS MAY EXPAND TO THE FOOTHILLS.
LONG TERM...
MOST TERMINALS WILL LIKELY START WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDS IN FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS, BUT THESE WILL LIKELY TO BREAK UP AT ALL BUT
COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING. A RETURN TO FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS EXPECTED SAT EVENING, AND THESE WILL LIKELY PERSIST RIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH GENERALLY IFR OR LOWER EXPECTED,
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDS AWAY FROM
THE COAST ON SUNDAY. IFR WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING,M BUT COULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OR VFR MON
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...
THIS AFTERNOON, 3-5FT SEAS WITH SOUTHEASTERLIES AT 10-15 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WINDS CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE PICKING BACK UP TO 8-12KTS
TOMORROW. SEAS OF 2-4FT EXPECTED TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
A FOG BANK MAY SKEW VISIBILITY OVER THE OPEN WATERS TOMORROW
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM...
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR S WINDS STARTING SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH GALES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE WINDS DIMINISH
MONDAY MORNING, AND FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS BY MONDAY EVENING.
HYDROLOGY
ICE JAM FLOODING CONCERNS ARE GROWING FOR THE RAIN-ON-SNOW
EVENT EARLY NEXT WEEK. ROUTINE RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME UNLESS OTHERWISE IMPACTED BY ICE. A GRADUAL RIPENING
OF THE AREA SNOWPACK WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SNOW-
EATING FOG/DRIZZLE SATURDAY AND A MORE RAPID RELEASE/MELT SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE ENERGY FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LESSENING WHEN
CROSSING THE AREA, LIMITING THE OVERALL RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO AN
INCH OR LESS FOR MOST AREAS. THE HIGH DEWPOINTS AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVERS IN MELTING THE SNOWPACK, WHICH
COULD RELEASE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES OF WATER OVER THE WEEKEND.
RIVER RESPONSES WILL START AS EARLY AS SATURDAY, WITH MORE RAPID
RATE OF RISE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MORE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE RAINFALL. THE CUMULATIVE RUNOFF WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
RAISE MOST STREAMS AND RIVERS WITH SOME NEARING BANKFULL, BUT
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AGAIN THE MAIN FACTOR
WILL BE ANY ICE JAM DEVELOPMENT. MUCH OF THE ICE IN SOUTHERN
RIVERS WILL ROT AND FLUSH PRIOR TO THE SUNDAY NIGHT EVENT, BUT
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN RIVERS SHOULD ANTICIPATE FURTHER BREAK-UP
AND SHIFTING OF ICE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK POSING A RISK TO
DOWNSTREAM COMMUNITIES. THE ICE JAM FLOOD RISK WILL LINGER UNTIL
THE FLOWS RECEDE OR THE ICE FLUSHES OUT.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...EKSTER/PALMER
SHORT TERM...PALMER
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA/PALMER
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page