182
FXUS61 KGYX 300605
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
105 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE NEAR AND SHORT TERM PORTION OF FORECAST
THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IT'S BEEN A BROKEN RECORD FEATURING
COLDER THAN NORMAL AIR AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. REMAINING VERY COLD THROUGH SATURDAY ALBEIT WITH DRY WEATHER.
2. A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT LOCAL IMPACTS BUT SOME
LIGHT SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
3. HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY COMBINED WITH
THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY BRING WATER LEVELS TO NEAR
MINOR FLOOD STAGE DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE. TO MAKE THINGS WORSE, WINDS WILL BE PRETTY STIFF WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 25 MPH AT TIMES MAKING IT FEEL SEVERAL DEGREES
COLDER. SOME LUCKY RESIDENTS MAY BE IN A MOUNT WASHINGTON WIND
SHADOW A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY, NOTICING LONG PERIODS OF
LIGHTER WINDS. AT THIS TIME THAT BEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM KIZG TO KPWM AND 10 TO 20 OR SO MILES
EITHER SIDE. MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TODAY.
LIGHTER WINDS FOR TONIGHT, BUT THAT TRADE OFF IS GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL FAVOR
LOWER LOWS THAN THE NBM AT THE BETTER RADIATORS.
ANOTHER FAIR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED SATURDAY. DESPITE CONTINUED
COLD, WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER ALONG WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...
LATEST ENSEMBLE AND AI BASED GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO SHOW A
SE TREND IN THE TRACK OF WHAT WILL LIKELY BE A RATHER STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MOST GUIDANCE
KEEPING IT WELL SE OF CAPE COD. THIS WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY
SIGNIFICANT LOCAL IMPACTS TO THE REGION. DESPITE THIS, THERE
REMAINS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PERHAPS A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
GUSTY N-NW WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS THERE WILL BE A STRONG
PGF BETWEEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR EAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES COMBINED WITH STORM SURGE OF BETWEEN 1-2
FT MAY BRING TOTAL WATER LEVELS UP TO NEAR MINOR FLOOD STAGE
DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LATEST STEVENS
INSTITUTE ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SHOW A LESS THAN 5% CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING GREATER THAN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND THEREFORE ANY
IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO BE MINOR.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN NH AND SOUTHERN ME OVERNIGHT.
THIS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR AND VIS NEARING
IFR FOR SHORT DURATION. THESE CONDITIONS PERSIST LONGER FOR
POINTS NW OF THE WHITES AND WESTERN ME MOUNTAINS TODAY. TRENDING
VFR TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KT AT TIMES. OFFSHORE MVFR DECK MAY
BACKBUILD TOWARDS COASTAL TERMINALS, MAINLY PWM AND PSM, THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING. THINK SHOULD MAINLY BE FEW OR
SCT WITH > BKN LIMITED.
OUTLOOK:
SUNDAY / MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY N-NW WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME -SN
ACROSS COASTAL TAF SITES BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH W WINDS AT 10-15 KTS.
MARINE
W-WNW WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 KT TODAY WILL MAINTAIN SCA
CONDITIONS OVER THE OUTER WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES
CONTINUE ALL WATERS INTO EARLY SATURDAY. WINDS AND SEAS COME
DOWN BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES.
GALE FORCE N-NW WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SE OF CAPE COD. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-10 FT
OUTSIDE OF THE BAYS.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MEZ007>009-
012-018-019-023-024-033.
NH...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NHZ001>015.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ150-152-154.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ150>154.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ150>154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ151.
DISCUSSION...EKSTER/TUBBS/CORNWELL
AVIATION...CORNWELL/TUBBS
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