833
FXUS61 KGYX 161410
AFDGYX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1010 AM EDT WED APR 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOLER AND BREEZY WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS INTO THURSDAY.
WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT ALONG WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK FAIR AND DRY, BUT
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NORMAL.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
1005AM UPDATE...CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN A LITTLE QUICKER, SO HAVE
INCREASED THE SKY COVER FOR THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
OTHERWISE HAVE EXTENDED A SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCE SOUTH OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS BECOMES UNBLOCKED INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
625 AM...FAIRLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. WE
ARE IN THE BREAK BEFORE THE APPROACH OF THE 500 MB TROUGH, BUT
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY STARTING TO SHIFT INTO NH FROM THE W, AND
WILL SEE BKN-OVC CONDS BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE CWA. SHOWERS WILL
MOSTLY BE LIMITED TO THE MTNS, AND START RAMPING A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUSLY...THE SFC COLD FRONT IS THROUGH THE CWA, AND WINDS
HAVE SHIFTED W AND PICKED UP A BIT, BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
AFTER SUNRISE FOR THE MIXING OF THE WINDS, WHICH SHOULD SEE
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES TODAY, AS THE SFC LOW WOBBLES AROUND
NEAR THE GULF OF ST. LAWRENCE, AND RIDGING BUILDS TO OUR W.
ALSO, 500 MB CLOSED LOW TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE CWA TODAY,
AND THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF CLOUDS , AND INCREASE SHRASN
OVER THE MTNS. SO, ANY SUN THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY
CLOUDY TO OVERCAST BY MIDDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S IN THE MTNS TO AROUND 50 IN THE S.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
SHOULD SEE THAT SURGE IN MTNS SHSN PEAK DURING THIS EVENING,
BEFORE THEY START TO WANE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. ALSO WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET, BUT STILL A LITTLE BREEZY
OVERNIGHT, SKIES ALSO SHOULD CLEAR OUT LATE TONIGHT AS THE SFC HIGH
NUDGES IN FROM THE W. THERE WILL BE SOME DECENT CAA OVERNIGHT,
BUT THE WINDS STAY UP AS WELL, SO LOW RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
IN THE N TO THE MID 30S IN THE S.
THE SFC HIGH STILL STRUGGLES TO MOVE IN DURING THE THU, BUT THE
PRES GRADIENT DOES WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY, SO SHOULD MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE DAY OUTSIDE THE MTNS, AND CLEARING SKIES
FROM MIDDAY ON IN THE MTNS. STILL A LITTLE BREEZY ON THU, BUT
WINDS SHOULD START DIMINISHING LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN THE MTNS, TO THE MID 50S IN THE S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
LONG TERM EVENING UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THE TIME.
THE 01Z NBM AND OTHER LATE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FIELDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PREVIOUSLY...
KEY MESSAGE: TYPICAL SPRING PATTERN THRU THE EXTENDED. NO REAL
BITTER COLD AND NO REAL SIGNAL FOR SUSTAINED WARMTH EITHER.
IMPACTS: NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ANTICIPATED. THERE IS NO BIG QPF
SIGNAL THRU THE NEXT WEEK BUT THERE WILL BE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAINS TO HELP MITIGATE FIRE WEATHER THREATS.
FORECAST DETAILS:
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS LARGELY NEAR NORMAL FOR TEMPS THRU THE EXTENDED
EXCEPT FOR ONE BRIEF WINDOW SAT OF MILD TEMPS. IN ADDITION THERE
APPEAR TO BE TWO WINDOWS FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP. ONE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND ANOTHER EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEITHER PERIOD HAS 90TH
PERCENTILE QPF MUCH OVER A HALF INCH...SO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS
UNLIKELY. MORE APRIL SHOWERS THAN APRIL WASHOUT.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHORT TERM...OTHER THAN KHIE SHOULD SEE VFR AT LEAST THROUGH
THU, WHILE KHIE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MVFR MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH TONIGHT IN UPSLOPE FLOW, BUT SHOULD START TO CLEAR THU
MORNING. ALSO EXPECTING W WINDS GUSTS TODAY AT ALL TERMINAL TO
AROUND 25 KT, WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING.
LONG TERM...LARGELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE EXTENDED. WILL
LIKELY SEE EXPANDING AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER CIGS AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS INTO THE AREA SAT. PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL ALSO IMPACT AT
LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SAT...AND MAY AFFECT
HIE AND AUG TO RKD. THU AND AGAIN SAT/SUN WILL SEE SURFACE WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25KT.
MARINE
SHORT TERM...THE BREAK IN THE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WILL END THIS
MORNING AS W FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND A COLD FRONT, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA
LEVELS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE BREEZY PERIODS IN THE EXTENDED AS FRONTS
CROSS THE REGION. LINGERING SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THU AND THEN
AGAIN SAT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER INTO SUN BEFORE DIMINISHING.
GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ151-153.
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...CEMPA
LONG TERM...EKSTER/LEGRO
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