459
FXUS61 KOKX 312320
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
620 PM EST WED DEC 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT, SENDING A STRONG COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY LOW DEEPENS
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AND THEN TRACKS NORTH
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WILL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR
MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
MAINLY LIGHT SNOW LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
NEW YEAR'S DAY. HOWEVER, AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW OF 2 TO 3
INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS NEW LONDON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST
CONNECTICUT.
* A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING MAY BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SNOW SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A SNOW SQUALL.
* BRISK AND COLDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NEW YEAR'S DAY AS
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.
A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARD THE
AREA. WARM ADVECTION AND DEEP-LAYERDED LIFT IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AND/OR FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION
BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, NE
NJ, NYC METRO AND SW CT. THIS AREA WILL OVERSPREAD THE REMAINDER
OF CT AND LONG ISLAND INTO THE MORNING HOURS. ANY MIXING WITH
RAIN IS UNLIKELY AND WOULD BE BRIEF ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LI. ADDITIONALLY, THE SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR THE SYSTEM TO TAP
INTO MORE MOISTURE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW
ACROSS NEW LONDON COUNTY IN SE CT, WITH ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES.
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE A DUSTING TO
JUST UNDER AN INCH, WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN CT AND THE EASTERN HALF OF LI. THE SNOW WILL FALL IN
ABOUT A 3 TO 5 HOUR WINDOW, ENDING BY DAYBREAK FOR EASTERN
LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, STRONG FRONTOGENESIS, MARGINAL INSTABILITY,
AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
CREATE A GOOD CHANCE FOR A LINE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
SHOWERS, AND PERHAPS A SNOW SQUALL. LATEST CAMS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME. THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA, PASSING EASTERN LI/SE CT 8-9 AM. ONCE THIS HAPPENS,
GUSTY NW WINDS AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW. WIND
CHILLS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS ON THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY HOLD STEADY AROUND FREEZING
AT THE COAST AND THE UPPER 20S INLAND. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE MORNING, TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 20S AT THE COAST
AND THE LOWER TO MID 20S INLAND.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* BRISK AND COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA DURING
THIS TIME AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WEST WINDS WILL GUST UP TO ABOUT 20 MPH WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30.
THESE READINGS ARE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT SOME
MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* BELOW NORMAL COLD CONTINUES INTO MONDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
REMAINING BELOW FREEZING.
* SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AFTER A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN TO THE NORTH FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP US DRY AND COLD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDING IN SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AS THE HIGH SLIDES E TUESDAY, A SW RETURN FLOW SHOULD
DEVELOP AND A WARM FRONT APPROACH FROM THE SW, BRINGING SOME PRECIP,
MOSTLY AS LIGHT SNOW, BUT WITH PERHAPS A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS ERN
LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE PASSES NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT, BRINGING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
VFR TO START WITH THE POTENTIAL OF MVFR AND IFR IN -SN
OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PREVAILING -SN EXISTS AT KISP,
KBDR, KGON, AND KSWF, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 5-11Z. FOR NYC METRO
TERMINALS AND KHPN, - SN IS POSSIBLE BUT IT MAY REMAIN LIGHT AND
COULD END UP JUST FLURRIES.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF LULL WITH THE SNOW BEFORE A COLD
FRONT BRINGS THE POTENTIAL OF FAST MOVING SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW
SQUALLS. IF SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW SQUALLS MATERIALIZES, BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS 35-40KT AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW. HAVE
CONTINUED TO MENTION THIS IN THE TAF AS A PROB30.
SW WINDS 10-15 KT TONIGHT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT RETURNING AFTER
03-06Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NW WITH
THE FROPA AND QUICKLY INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35
KT. A FEW PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GUSTS
SHOULD START TO DIMINISH 21-23Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS WEAKENING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION:
JFK/LGA/EWR/TEB: A COATING TO A FEW TENTHS
HPN/SWF: UNDER AN INCH
ISP/BDR: AROUND 1 INCH
GON: 2-3 INCHES
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF -SN AND ANY FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES TONIGHT.
POTENTIAL QUICK MOVING SNOW SHOWERS OR SNOW SQUALLS 10-12Z WHICH
COULD BRING BRIEF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 40KT,
IFR/LIFR VISIBILITIES, AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW.
GUSTS MAY OCCASIONAL TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY BEFORE THE FROPA.
TIMING OF FROPA AND WINDSHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS DIMINISHING.
FRIDAY: VFR. W WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY - MONDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY WITH A SCA
ELSEWHERE. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT,
SENDING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY MORNING.
SW WINDS WILL GUSTS UP TO 25-30KT, ESPECIALLY THE SECOND HALF
OF THE NIGHT. A NW GALE THEN FOLLOWS FOR THE OCEAN WATERS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5 TO 9
FT ON THE OCEAN AND 3 TO 5 FT ACROSS LONG ISLAND SOUND.
SCA COND EXPECTED THEREAFTER FOR THE OCEAN WATERS INTO FRI
EVENING, AND FOR THE ERN SOUND/BAYS INTO THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI
MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR CTZ008-012.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ331-332-335-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JT/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JT
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JT/DW
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