613
FXUS61 KOKX 231130
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
730 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL CT AND SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
2) FROST EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FROM TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
IN THE INTERIOR. FROST ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR COASTAL CT AND
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER.
3) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE IN BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY
NY FOR THE MORNING HIGH TIDE. FOR SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLES
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
POSSIBLE FOR THE SAME LOCATION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY, THEN SETTLES OVER
THE NORTHEAST US SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND OFFSHORE BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THEREAFTER. THEREFORE, A STRETCH OF DRY
CONDITIONS IS FORECAST THROUGH MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE,
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR THE OUTLYING AREAS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP INTO THE 30S WITH SOME UPPER 20S POSSIBLE WELL INLAND.
FROST DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ACROSS AREAS WHERE THE GROWING
SEASON IS STILL ONGOING: COASTAL CT AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER.
THEREFORE, FROST ADVISORIES WERE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FOR THESE AREAS. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND, BUT CONFIDENCE AND AREAL
COVERAGE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THESE
AREAS. FROST IS NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LONG
ISLAND, NYC, AND THE SURROUNDING METRO SUBURBS.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, SO ANOTHER ROUND OF FROST ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN SATURDAY NIGHT WILL
MEAN INTRODUCTION OF SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR, SO FROST MAY BE
MORE PATCHY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WITH THE APPROACH OF A FULL MOON LATE THIS WEEKEND AND A PERSISTENT
EASTERLY SWELL WATER LEVELS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. BRIEF MINOR FLOODING OF THE MORE
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS NEAR THE WATERFRONT AND SHORELINE IS POSSIBLE
FOR THE NASSAU SOUTH SHORE BAYS WITH THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE
CYCLE. THUS A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE
CYCLES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO GET NEAR MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD BENCHMARKS. THEREFORE ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES MAY
BE NEEDED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
N FLOW WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TOWARD 20 KT
MAY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. FLOW
GRADUALLY VEERS NNE OR NE, WITH SPEEDS LOWERING UNDER 10 KT
INTO LATE DAY. WINDS LESSEN AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH 6 AM. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION DIMINISHING, WINDS WILL RELAX THROUGH THE MORNING. THE
HARBOR IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 25 KT BY 6 AM, WITH THE SOUND,
SOUTH SHORE BAYS, AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS FALLING BELOW
25 KT BY 10 AM.
WINDS ON THE OCEAN FALL BELOW 25 KT BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WAVES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. SCAS ARE
EXPECTED TO COME DOWN AROUND MIDNIGHT OR A COUPLE OF HOURS
EARLIER FOR THE OCEAN.
THEREAFTER, CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES MAY BUILD TO 5 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS AGAIN
BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR NYZ071.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ353-
355.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JP
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