053
FXUS61 KOKX 071831
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
231 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL
OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
EVENING. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SEND A COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL
ALSO BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. THE MODELED PATTERN FAVORS LIMITED
FORCING AND ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS PREDOMINATELY WESTERLY, WHICH SHOULD PREVENT STRONGER
LIFT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THE LATEST NBM INDICATES A LOW
CHANCE POP (AROUND 30 PERCENT) THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. INSTABILITY ALSO LOOKS LIMITED, BUT A
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CSU MLP IS NOT HIGHLIGHTING
ANY PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS
ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THIS CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FRIDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
THE WARMEST DAYS OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE MID TO POTENTIALLY UPPER 80S IN THE NYC METRO
AND NE NJ WITH MAINLY THE LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE. SEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW THROUGH TUESDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NW-N WINDS 10KT OR LESS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO A MORE WESTERLY
FLOW TOWARD EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE WINDS TAKE ON A MORE
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AT KJFK LATE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAF. LIGHT W WINDS THIS EVENING WILL VEER BACK TO
THE NW TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE TO 7-10KT AFTER 12Z.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
A FEW GUSTS 15-18KT THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. NW WINDS BACK TO SW-S BY LATE DAY.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SW GUSTS 20-25 KT AND SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
MVFR LATE AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN SHRA. SW/ GUSTS AROUND 20
KT POSSIBLE.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS. SW WINDS
WILL THEN INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO
WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS PROBABLY APPROACH 25 KT ON THE OCEAN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY, AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. OCEAN SEAS
BUILD TO 5-7 FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, AND THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR WAVES ON THE LI SOUND TO BECOME 3-4 FT. WINDS AND
SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THURSDAY, FALLING BELOW SCA LEVELS
THURSDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT SATURDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY WITH THE LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT WINDS OR SWELL.
S-SW WINDS INCREASE WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WIND SPEEDS 15-20 KT WILL HELP BUILD SEAS AND SWELL, BUT
MORE LIKELY LATE IN THE DAY AND EVENING. HAVE GONE WITH A MODERATE
RIP CURRENT RISK FOR NOW, BUT COULD BECOME HIGH LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DS
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