878
FXUS61 KOKX 151150
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
750 AM EDT THU OCT 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND HEADLINES HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AND A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY DURING FRIDAY EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
2) THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES TONIGHT, WITH A WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO A PORTION OF THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN SHOULD BE PRIMARILY LIGHT AND WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. THE WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT
FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON, THUS A BREAK IN THE RAIN IS
EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT THIS POINT AS AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT TOWARDS EVENING IS BEING PROGGED TO MOVE A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. THEREFORE THE AREA WILL GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR FOR A LARGE PORTION OF FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES MAINLY WELL INTO THE 70S, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN. WITH THE FRONT PROGGED TO A BE BIT SLOWER THE COLD FRONT IS
LIKELY TO SWING THROUGH PRIMARILY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALLOWING
INSTABILITY TO BUILD SOME LATER IN THE DAY. THEREFORE THE FRONT MAY
BRING WITH IT SOME HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONSENSUS ON FORECASTED TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS STILL LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH OR THEREABOUTS
FROM THE WARM FRONT AND COLD FRONT COMBINED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH, TO ONE INCH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT WHERE ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INITIATES. ANY LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHALLOW AND FAST MOVING, SO ANY
DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED. SPC HAS PLACED A GOOD PORTION OF
THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR LATE FRIDAY /
FRIDAY EVENING. WITH THE SHALLOW NATURE OF ANY EXPECTED CONVECTION
THE ONLY RISK IS A LIMITED WIND RISK WITH ANY STORMS. A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT UNTIL AROUND 06-12Z SAT AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS LAGS TO THE WEST AND ATTEMPTS TO AMPLIFY.
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE WINDS WILL THEN QUICKLY SHIFT TO
THE W DURING LATE FRIDAY EVENING FOR FAR WESTERN SECTIONS, THEN
FURTHER EAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. MUCH DRIER AIR RETURNS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE WINDS
BECOMING MORE NW AND GUSTY AS THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY GETS
OFFSHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW WINDS LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
AS MIXING INCREASES IN THE COLUMN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LOOK FOR STRONG, GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY LAST RIGHT
THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON. ALSO, BEHIND THE FRONT THE
COOLEST WEATHER OF THE FALL IS LIKELY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. DAYTIME HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S
WITH A GUSTY NNW WIND. WIDESPREAD 30S AND LOWER 40S ARE EXPECTED FOR
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS LIKELY TOWARDS
LATE IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RECOVERING A
LITTLE INTO THE UPPER HALF OF THE 50S WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NW TODAY, THEN PASS E
TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT.
VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT, THEN SHOWERS WITH MVFR COND FROM THE
NYC METROS NORTH/WEST AND KISP AFTER 06Z, AND IFR AFTER ABOUT
10Z. FARTHER EAST, MVFR COND SHOULD REACH KBDR/KGON BY ABOUT
09Z.
N FLOW AROUND 10 KT SHOULD VEER NE 5-10 KT BY AFTERNOON, THEN
SHIFT SE 5-10 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SPEEDS INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT TO AROUND 10 KT AT SOME COASTAL SITES.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: SHOWERS WITH IFR COND EARLY, IMPROVING TO MVFR BY LATE
MORNING AND THEN VFR IN THE AFTERNOON AT THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AT KBDR/KISP/KHPN. KSWF MAY REMAIN MVFR IN THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE KGON REMAINS IFR. S WINDS G15-20KT IN THE
MORNING, BECOMING SW G20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM IN THE EVENING, WITH
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS, THEN VFR. COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOLLOWED
BY W-NW WINDS G25KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G25KT, DIMINISHING IN
THE EVENING.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS WITH SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS RAMP UP DURING FRIDAY MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON
WHEN THE WINDS TURN MORE SW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
THE WINDS BECOMING W, THEN NW DURING SATURDAY MORNING. A PERIOD OF
GALES REMAINS POSSIBLE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE WATERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY LINGER FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUB ADVISORY
CONDITIONS RETURN DURING SUNDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY AND SETTLING NEARBY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ331-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ332-
340-345-350-353.
GALE WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ350-353-355-380-383-385.
DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JE
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