526
FXUS61 KOKX 140845 AAA
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 AM EDT WED OCT 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING BRINGING LOWER HUMIDITY AND MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO
END THE WEEK.
2) A FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TO THE
WEST AND NORTH BRINGS SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN
THE EVENING. NO IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH REGARD TO RAINFALL.
3) STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING, USHERING IN THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON
THUS FAR THIS WEEKEND. IT REMAINS TOO SOON TO DETERMINE IMPACTS FROM
STRONG WINDS DURING LATE FRIDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LOOK FOR WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY, WITH A SW FLOW BECOMING W
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE PRIMARILY IN THE
MIDDLE 70S RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, TO UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S ELSEWHERE. THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH FROM W TO E DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP, BUT
MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD MANAGE TO REMAIN PRIMARILY DRY DESPITE THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COME NOTICEABLY LESS
HUMID AND COOLER AIR. THIS WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY MEANINGFUL RAIN LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY FRIDAY. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN SHOULD
BE PRIMARILY LIGHT AND WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. THE
WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFTING FURTHER NORTH TOWARDS THE
AFTERNOON, THUS A BREAK IN THE RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS. A
COLD FRONT THEN IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW. THE COLD FRONT IS LIKELY TO
SWING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY OR BY EARLY EVENING. THIS MAY BRING
WITH IT SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONSENSUS ON FORECASTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF INCH. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF UP TO ONE INCH CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IF ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CAN OUTPERFORM. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE
RIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY OUT OF THE
WEST, THEN QUICKLY SHIFT NW FOR THE EVENING BRINGING ANY RAIN
QUICKLY TO AN END.
KEY MESSAGE 3
AS MIXING INCREASES IN THE COLUMN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LOOK FOR STRONG, GUSTY WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH MAY
LAST RIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE LONGEVITY OF ANY STRONGER
GUSTS REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME, WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 40-45 MPH
OR THEREABOUTS A STRONG POSSIBILITY. SUBSEQUENT UPDATES MAY NEED TO
DETERMINE IF ANY WIND HEADLINES WILL BE NECESSARY. ALSO, BEHIND THE
FRONT THE COOLEST WEATHER OF THE FALL IS LIKELY FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. SOME TEMPERATURE MODERATION IS LIKELY TOWARDS LATER
IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RECOVERING CLOSE TO
60 WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A GENERAL SW FLOW WILL BECOME W TODAY AND INCREASE TO AROUND OR JUST
OVER 10 KT WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHIFT NW-N TONIGHT 10 KT OR LESS AFTER FROPA.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED. A FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
OCCUR LATE TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH FROPA BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT FLIGHT CATEGORY.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE WITH MVFR OR LOWER COND.
FRIDAY: SHOWERS. IFR COND LIKELY, IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON
FROM THE NYC METROS NORTH/WEST. SW WINDS G20-25KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM IN THE EVENING WITH MAINLY
MVFR COND, THEN VFR. COLD FROPA WITH W-NW WINDS G25-35KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G25-35 KT.
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT EARLY.
SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES END FROM THE CENTRAL OCEAN TO THE EASTERN
OCEAN THROUGH THE MID MORNING TO ABOUT NOON. A PERIOD OF
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON A NORTHWEST FLOW, AT
THIS TIME IT IS EXPECTED THAT MOST ZONES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT THRESHOLDS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES SOME INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS WITH SUB ADVISORY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS RAMP UP DURING FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS QUICKLY DEVELOPING IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW, ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS BECOME
SW JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY WITH HIGH
END SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS, THEN IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THE FLOW GOES NW AND SHOULD RESULT IN GALES DEVELOPING
ACROSS ALL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING GALES WILL HAVE GIVEN WAY TO
SMALL CRAFTS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN BY SUNDAY WITH WINDS DECREASING BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
OCTOBER 14:
KEWR: 85/1975
KBDR: 80/1990
KNYC: 84/1920
KLGA: 82/1975
KJFK: 82/1990
KISP: 81/1990
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ353.
DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JE
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