215  
FXUS61 KOKX 092338  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
638 PM EST SUN DEC 9 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
SOUTHERN LOW PRESSURES PASS WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION  
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH THE  
REGION TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MID WEEK. OTHERWISE  
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW  
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND PASSES THROUGH  
NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
 
 
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO  
HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH THIS UPDATE.  
 
A SPLIT UPPER FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH A  
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURES TRACKING  
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MEANWHILE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH  
MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW  
MOVING THROUGH.  
 
SURFACE RIDGING GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, WITH A COLD  
FRONT APPROACHING FROM NW BUT LIKELY DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE  
AREA. HIGH CLOUD SHIELD EVENTUALLY SLIDES EAST OVERNIGHT, BUT  
POTENTIAL FOR LAKE SOURCED STRATO-CU FIELD TO WORK INTO FAR NW  
HILLS TOWARDS MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT A BIT OF A TIGHTENING  
N GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. THE  
COMBINATION WILL LIKELY LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO A BRIEF  
WINDOW ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS TONIGHT. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE  
TEENS ACROSS OUTLYING AREAS, WITH UPPER 20S FOR NYC METRO.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
SPLIT UPPER FLOW CONTINUES DURING THIS PERIOD. SOUTHERN STREAM  
TROUGH GETS INVIGORATED AND PERSISTS ACROSS THE SE US, WHILE  
NORTHERN TROUGHING PERSISTING ACROSS QUEBEC AND A NORTHERN  
STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE GREAT LAKES. THE REGION WILL  
TRANSITION FROM A ZONE OF GENTLE UPPER CONFLUENCE TO GREATER  
NORTHERN STREAM INFLUENCE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL  
BE CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS THE REGION  
BEHIND A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT, AND OVERALL CONTINUATION OF DRY  
AND CHILLY WEATHER.  
 
DESPITE SUNSHINE, TEMPS WILL LIKELY ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER  
30S ONCE AGAIN. LIKELY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS OUTLYING  
AREAS MONDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS DROPPING TO LOWER TEENS, WHILE  
NYC METRO REMAINS NEAR FREEZING.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY BRINGS US ANOTHER DRY DAY WITH HIGH  
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION  
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION IN  
THE FORM OF TROUGH. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LACK OF MOISTURE WITH  
THESE FEATURES, SO WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. RIDGING  
THEN RESUMES ALOFT DURING THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY WITH A MOSTLY  
SUNNY SKY AND BELOW-NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN  
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THURSDAY, AND WILL BE  
CENTERED OFFSHORE FOR FRIDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR LIGHT RAIN TO SHIFT  
IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON, BUT BETTER CHANCES  
FOR RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE RAIN WILL BE  
ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM TAKING SHAPE TO OUR WEST LATE IN THE WEEK  
BEFORE EVENTUALLY PASSING THROUGH OR AT LEAST NEARBY DURING NEXT  
WEEKEND. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 50% DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING,  
BUT IT'S LOOKING LIKELY THAT WE'LL HAVE RAIN AT SOME POINT FRIDAY  
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH BY SUNDAY WITH GLOBAL  
MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL BE TO OUR EAST.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.  
 
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH CLOUDS DEPART BY MONDAY.  
LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THIS EVENING VEER TO THE NW OVERNIGHT AND  
REMAIN NW TO N THROUGH MONDAY. SPEEDS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE  
COAST, INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT MONDAY MORNING, AND A FEW GUSTS  
TO 15-19 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS DIMINISH AS THE  
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
 
   
MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY
 
VFR.   
FRIDAY
 
VFR, THEN A CHANCE OF SUB-VFR LATE IN RAIN.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
OCCASIONAL NW GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING OVER  
OCEAN WATERS WITH A TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND SHOT OF COLD AIR IN  
WAKE OF DEPARTING SOUTHERN LOW. AT THIS POINT, SINCE IT IS  
MARGINAL AND SHORT PERIOD, WILL HOLD OFF ON SCA, BUT IF GUIDANCE  
TRENDS A BIT STRONGER WILL LIKELY HAVE TO ISSUE A SHORT FUSE  
SCA. OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA  
THRESHOLDS THROUGH TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE  
AREA. MAY HAVE ANOTHER SHOT OF BRIEF SCA WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT  
INTO WED IN WAKE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.  
 
OCEAN SEAS WILL BUILD LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO A  
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL FROM A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WELL  
OFFSHORE. OCEAN SEAS MAY OCCASIONALLY FLIRT WITH 5 FT MONDAY  
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.  
 
BETTER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDS APPEAR TO BE LATE WEEK INTO THE  
WEEKEND WITH AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF FRIDAY.  
 
A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT  
WEEKEND, BUT RAIN AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE UNCERTAIN  
AT THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC CENTRAL PARK WINDS ARE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.  
LOSS OF DATA IS DUE TO A SEVERED CABLE. PARTS ARE ON ORDER.  
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) WILL REMAIN OFF  
THE AIR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JC/NV  
NEAR TERM...JC/NV  
SHORT TERM...NV  
LONG TERM...JC  
AVIATION...PW  
MARINE...JC/NV  
HYDROLOGY...JC/NV  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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