027
FXUS61 KOKX 171120
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 AM EDT SAT OCT 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE INTERIOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM.
GALE WATCH CANCELLED ON THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS FOR SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR MOVES IN THIS WEEKEND.
2) AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE EAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND MEANDERS OFFSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. COASTAL
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LATE APRIL SETTLES IN TO START THE
WEEKEND.
BEHIND THE FROPA THAT MOVED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING,
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE PLAINS AND
USHERS IN A MUCH COOLER, DRIER REGIME. BEFORE THIS THOUGH, A
SHIELD OF LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES IN SOME AREAS TO START THE DAY,
MAINLY FROM NYC ON EAST ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND S CT. ADDITIONAL
QPF IS LIGHT, WELL UNDER A QUARTER INCH. ANY RAIN TAPERS BY MID
TO LATE MORNING AS THE RAIN SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST, AND CLOUD
COVER GRADUALLY ERODES THROUGH LATE DAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN WITH THE N/NW FLOW.
THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT AS THE HIGH BUILDS WILL ALSO
LEAD TO BLUSTERY NW WINDS TODAY. H850 TEMPS PLUMMET FROM THE
THE MID TEENS YESTERDAY TO AROUND -3C LATER TODAY AS THE COLD
POOL MOVES OVERHEAD. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON STRUGGLE TO GET
INTO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST, AND UPPER 40S INLAND, WITH
THE GUSTY WINDS, 20-30 MPH, ADDING TO THE CHILL.
ACTUAL AIR TEMPS THEN FALL INTO THE 30S TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, WITH LOWER 40S IN THE URBAN NYC METRO. THE COLDEST LOCALES OF
S CT AND THE LOHUD VALLEY FALL TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING
MARK AND THE FREEZE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO WARNING FOR THESE INTERIOR
ZONES. THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE NORTH WINDS WHICH LIKELY STAY
UP ENOUGH TO KEEP COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM GETTING TO FREEZING. DRIER
AIR SHOULD HELP MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION. SHOULD WINDS
DROP OFF MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, FREEZING TEMPERATURES
COULD EXPAND FURTHER SOUTH.
TODAY WILL BE THE COOLER DAY OF THE WEEKEND, WITH A SLOW REBOUND IN
TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE AND CLEAR SKIES ON SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD,
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S IN THE AFTERNOON, OR ABOUT 10
DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR MID OCTOBER. THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
MODERATE MONDAY, WITH 60S RETURNING FOR ALL BY TUESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGING EAST CUTS OFF AT THE BASE, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SPINNING UP OFF CAPE HATTERAS. CUT OFF FROM ANY MEANINGFUL
STEERING FLOW, THE LOW THEN APPEARS LIKELY TO MEANDER OFFSHORE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
GLOBAL DYNAMICAL AND AI DRIVEN GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE LOW, WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF IMPACTS LOCALLY. FOR NOW, THE CONSENSUS KEEPS
THE SYSTEM'S CENTER FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO LIMIT
ITS EFFECTS TO JUST A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NE WINDS THAT COULD
RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS. THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST AT THIS POINT HOWEVER, PARTICULARLY MOVING INTO MID
NEXT WEEK AND BEYOND, AND THIS FEATURE WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS TOWARDS THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NW WINDS AND GUSTS INCREASE THIS MORNING, BECOMING 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE N THIS EVENING AS GUSTS START WEAKENING, WITH GUSTS ENDING
02-05Z. N WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT, AND
SOME OUTLYING TERMINALS MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
PEAK GUSTS COULD BE A FEW KT HIGHER AT TIMES THIS MORNING/EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.
END TIME OF GUSTS THIS EVENING MAY BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY-MONDAY: VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: VFR. N-NE WIND GUSTS 15-25 KT, STRONGEST
NEAR THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. NE WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT, STRONGEST NEAR THE
COAST.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ON ALL COASTAL NEARSHORE
WATERS UNTIL 6PM THIS EVENING. GUSTY NW FLOW 25-30 KT EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS TIME, WITH OCEAN SEAS AROUND 5 FT. WINDS LIGHTEN
THIS EVENING AND SEAS ALSO LOWER FOR A BRIEF PERIOD TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. GALE WATCH THAT AS IN EFFECT FOR OUTER OCEAN
WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AM HAS BEEN CANCELLED AS WINDS NOW
LOOK TO REMAIN LOWER IN THIS PERIOD.
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, PARTICULARLY ON THE
OCEAN WATERS, IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE EAST COAST. OCEAN SEAS ABOVE 10 FT
DEVELOP MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. A
PERSISTENT NE FLOW IS ALSO IN PLACE, WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE
OCEAN BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY SPREAD TO
NON OCEAN WATERS INTO MIDWEEK WITH THE INCREASED NE WINDS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
CTZ005>008.
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NYZ067-068.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DR
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