638  
FXUS61 KOKX 200840  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
340 AM EST THU FEB 20 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
WEAK LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THEN AS AN UPPER  
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NEW  
YORK STATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY  
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN SLIDES EAST AND OFFSHORE INTO THE  
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE  
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE LOW PASSING NEARBY ON  
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE A  
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
 
 
SHALLOW MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK TODAY. THE ADDITIONAL VORTICITY ADVECTION  
AND LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY. BUT  
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES, THE ATMOSPHERE  
REMAINS VERY DRY WITH NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON  
THE COOL SIDE AND SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S DURING THE DAY  
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE DAILY NORMALS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
 
 
TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND  
OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO  
THE REGION. NORTH WINDS FOLLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT BRING EVEN DRIER  
AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK. DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT FALL INTO THE  
SINGLE DIGITS. THIS COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERMIT  
TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE MID TEENS OVER LONG ISLAND AND LOW  
TEENS FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.  
 
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE LOCALLY KEEPING  
SOUTHERN NEW YORK CHILLY AND DRY. TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ARE  
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 30S WITH CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING THROUGH  
THE DAY TIME HOURS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
DRY WEATHER STARTS OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH  
OF THE REGION DOMINATES. EXPECT DRY WEATHER SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND  
MOST OF MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH RANGE FROM THE  
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY OVER THE WEEKEND,  
HOWEVER CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS THE NEXT  
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. RIGHT NOW,  
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES  
WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE  
MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC,  
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS  
TIME. THE LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY,  
AS IT DOES, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH  
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.  
 
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS  
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, HOWEVER  
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO EXACTLY THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT  
OF THE NEXT LOW. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST  
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND, BUT REMAINING CLOSE ENOUGH FOR MOST  
OF THE AREA TO SEE RAIN. AS WITH ANY STORM 7 DAYS OUT, THE EXACT  
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF STORM IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.  
 
NW WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. CITY  
TERMINALS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20  
KTS. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE MORNING AS HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  
 
OTHERWISE, NW WINDS WILL BACK TO AROUND 310 MAGNETIC INCREASING 10-  
15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY SHIFTING N/NW BY THIS EVENING.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
 
   
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
 
VFR.   
MONDAY
 
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CAT, MAINLY  
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PASSES OFFSHORE WITH  
WINDS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AROUND 25-30 KTS. SCA CRITERIA WINDS  
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.  
WAVES SHOULD RANGE 2 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.  
 
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY ACROSS ALL FORECAST WATERS. THE NEXT CHANCE  
OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS  
THE WATERS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) IS STILL  
OPERATING AT REDUCED POWER.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY  
FOR ANZ350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...BC/DJ  
NEAR TERM...DJ  
SHORT TERM...DJ  
LONG TERM...BC  
AVIATION...CB  
MARINE...BC/DJ  
HYDROLOGY...BC/DJ  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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