307
FXUS61 KOKX 261930
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
330 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM INLAND LATE
THIS AFTERNOON, THAIN AGAIN THROUGHOUT LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
2) HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WEAK LIFT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
PASSING WELL NORTH, AND WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IN A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH, HAVE LED TO DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED
AREA OF SHOWERS NW OF NYC. A MID LEVEL CAP/POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES SHOULD KEEP ALL BUT THE STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY FROM
DEVELOPING INTO TSTMS, SO ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER
MENTION AS WELL AS LOW OVERALL POP (20-30%) IN THE FORECAST.
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SLOW MOVERS AND ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN, SO SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAIN LAST NIGHT (ROCKLAND,
WESTERN PASSAIC, NW BERGEN AND N WESTCHESTER).
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE DOWN BY EVENING, THEN SHOWERS WITH A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH SHOULD MOVE IN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON/OFF
INTO SAT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE,
BUT MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON NE NJ IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE 12Z
HREF SIGNALS 10-20% LOW PROBABILITY OF AN INCH OF RAIN. NO MORE
THAN NUISANCE ISSUES EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IF/WHERE
IT OCCURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS
THE COUNTRY DURING THIS TIME, WITH A TROUGH OUT WEST AND A A
HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HEIGHTS ARE
GREATER THAN 594 DM, ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL, AND 85H TEMPS ON
THURSDAY ON THE LATEST 12Z GFS ARE AT OR ABOVE 22C. TRENDS THE
LAST 24H HAS SHOWN THE UPPER RIDGE TO BE A BIT STRONGER ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. THAT
BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE STRENGTH
AND MAGNITUDE AS DISTURBANCES ROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. THE 12Z GFS IS STILL SUPPORTING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, SENDING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES IS OVER 10
DEGREES FROM NYC UP INTO SW CT AND GENERALLY OVER 8 FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE SPREAD DECREASES SOME THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY, WHICH LOOK TO BE THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE WEEK.
A COMPROMISE WAS MADE BETWEEN THE WARMER NBM AND GLOBAL
CONSENSUS. THE KEY POINT HERE IS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR
HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WITH A POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY OR HIGHER
LEVEL EVENT.
HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 90-95 AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST, WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. RECORD HIGHS DURING
THIS TIME ARE MAINLY 100 PLUS. SO SOME PRETTY STOUT RECORDS ARE
IN PLACE. EVEN THE WARMER NBM HIGHS ARE GENERALLY SHORT, BUT
DO TIE OR BREAK IN A FEW PLACES ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES, EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS TONIGHT INTO
SAT.
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. VFR IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT AND SAT, BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR ARE POSSIBLE WITH
SHOWERS.
SHOWERS ARE PREVAILED IN TAFS 12-18Z. PROB30'S ON EITHER SIDE,
9-12Z AND 18-00Z. SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT EXPECTED TO
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR. HOWEVER, SHOWER COVERAGE AND TIMING
IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. CHANGES IN TAFS ARE LIKELY AS
THE EVENT NEARS. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AT NYC TERMINALS AND AREAS N&W OF NYC SAT AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
GIVEN A WEAK LINGERING BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA, FREQUENT VARIABLE WIND
DIRECTION CHANGES ARE POSSIBLE AND ARE MORE UNCERTAIN AS WE GET
INTO SATURDAY'S TIMELINE. FOR NOW, EXPECTED WINDS TO BE 6-10KT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY FROM A SW-NW DIRECTION.
TONIGHT, WINDS DROP DOWN TO 5KT OR BELOW. MAY GO VARIABLE IN
PLACE. OTHERWISE, GENERAL DIRECTIONS WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE FROM
SW EARLY IN THE NIGHT TO NNW BY DAYBREAK. WINDS THEN EXPECTED TO
BE 6-9KT SAT. THEY START N IN MORNING, THEN GO S AND E IN THE
AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR.
LOW PROBABILITY OF THUNDER EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 21Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR. S WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE SOME WIND APPROACHING 25 KT TUE
AFTERNOON AND WED AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIP CURRENTS:
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOOKS TO BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 1-2
FT SWELL SETS VARYING BETWEEN 5-10S AND ONSHORE WINDS AT OR
BELOW 10 KT. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT AREA BEACHES ARE ALSO
SUPPORTING A LOWER RISK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/DW
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...GOODMAN/DW
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