905
FXUS61 KOKX 010743
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE WITH THIS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. IMPACTS
SHOULD BE LIMITED.
2. SHOWERS LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH ANY IMPACTS LIKELY LIMITED.
3. SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH TIDES
FROM THURSDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
THURSDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LIMITED CAPE WITH UNFAVORABLE LAPSE RATES WILL PUT A LID ON THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY, BUT WILL STILL MENTION A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM FOR SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS LIFT
GETS ENHANCED WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT. A BRIEF MODERATE TO
HEAVY DOWNPOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT PROBABLY WITH NOT ENOUGH
RAINFALL FOR ANY CONCERNS BEYOND SPOTTY MINOR POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING. TIMING OF THIS THREAT WOULD BE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
ANTICIPATING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. RAIN IS LIKELY WITH THE ONSET TIMING
STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING OF
THE FRONT. THIS ALSO HAS IMPLICATIONS ON WHETHER OR NOT A
THUNDERSTORM HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MATERIALIZING THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST. SHOULD THE SLOWER GUIDANCE BE CORRECT, MORE OF THE
AREA COULD HAVE A LONGER TIME TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE LIFT
SUPPLIED BY THE FRONT. WILL KEEP OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR
NOW AS PER WPC GUIDANCE. SHOULD ANY CONVECTION OCCUR, IMPACTS
WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING.
KEY MESSAGE 3
STUCK WITH THE BIAS-CORRECTED BLEND OF ETSS, STOFS, AND NYHOPS
50TH PERCENTILE WHICH INDICATES DEPARTURES OF 1 TO 1.5 FT
GENERATED BY E FLOW THU INTO FRI MORNING. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH WEDNESDAY'S FULL MOON
TO LEAD TO SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE
CYCLES FROM THU AM INTO FRI AM. GIVEN THE E FLOW THE BIGGER
IMPACTS SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE THU NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU, THE TIDAL WATERS OF NE NJ, AND THE
SW CT COASTLINE.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD FRONT NORTH OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY DROP THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AND LINGER OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
MAINLY VFR UNTIL AROUND THE TIME OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR IN SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEFORE
THAT, WITH THE NEXT CHANCE NEAR DAYBREAK. PLAN TO MAINTAIN VCSH
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP WITH SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. CHANCE OF IFR TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW AT THIS TIME TO PUT IN TAF FOR 30H SITES. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AND LESS THAN 10 KT AT THE INLAND TERMINALS EARLY THIS
AM. SW LLWS LIKELY EARLY THIS AM THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. SW WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WITH G15-18KT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, THEN VEERING
TO THE N/NE AROUND 10 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CHANCE FOR MVFR IN MORNING IN SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
IFR LIKELY ON THURSDAY. E/NE G15-20KT AT THE COAST.
FRIDAY: BECOMING VFR. SW G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER SAT NIGHT.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE
A PERIOD ON THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT WHERE CRITERIA IS
NOT BEING MET, HOWEVER AS WINDS SHIFT EAST AND INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT, WAVES WILL PROBABLY BE BACK OVER 5 FT. HAVE THEREFORE
CONTINUED THE SCA HERE THROUGH THE ENTIRE NIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. MIGHT NEED TO EVENTUALLY ISSUE A SCA FOR SOME
OF THESE OTHER ZONES SHOULD GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRONGER
WINDS/GUSTS.
THE OCEAN SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS, OTHERWISE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDS ON FRIDAY
BEFORE SEAS BUILD AGAIN AT NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SCA
CONDS LOOK PROBABLE FOR ALL WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH
AND PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT GALES ON THE
OCEAN.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 82/1978
KBDR: 71/1955
KNYC: 83/1917
KLGA: 80/1978
KJFK: 75/1978
KISP: 67/1999
APRIL 4:
KEWR: 82/1950
KBDR: 71/2025
KNYC: 80/1892
KLGA: 76/2010
KJFK: 73/2010
KISP: 75/2010
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
APRIL 1:
KEWR: 62/2016
KBDR: 53/2016
KNYC: 61/2016
KLGA: 56/2016
KJFK: 52/2016
KISP: 54/2016
APRIL 4:
KEWR: 61/1981
KBDR: 53/2025
KNYC: 62/1892
KLGA: 57/2025
KJFK: 57/2025
KISP: 54/2025
APRIL 5:
KEWR: 55/1981
KBDR: 49/1974
KNYC: 60/1892
KLGA: 53/2010
KJFK: 52/2010
KISP: 50/1981
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JC
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