964
FXUS61 KOKX 300528
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
128 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK WITH A WARMING
TREND INTO THE END OF THE WEEK.
2) LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING SOME RAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. IMPACTS
APPEAR UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE COASTAL STORM THAT BROUGHT IMPACTS TO THE REGION THROUGHOUT THIS
PAST WEEKEND CONTINUES TO FILL IN AND WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST. THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH IT PIVOTS
WELL EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOWS RISING HEIGHTS TO
WORK IN BEHIND ITS DEPARTURE. WHAT THIS ULTIMATELY RESULTS IN IS A
WARMING TREND AND A PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER REGIME THROUGH MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE ONLY MINOR SENSIBLE WX
ADJUSTMENT WAS TO ADD PATCHY FOG ACROSS MAINLY THE NON-URBAN
SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT. IF ENOUGH SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER PERSISTS THEN
THE PATCHY FOG WILL NOT BE REALIZED. HOWEVER, FX SOUNDINGS HINTED AT
FOG FORMATION ENOUGH WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE ALONG AND JUST
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL THAT SOME COVERAGE OF PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED FROM
MIDNIGHT TO JUST AFTER SUNRISE WED AM.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS
THAT THE FORCING WILL BE WEAK WITH LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THUS THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER CHANGE WOULD BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY AND POSSIBLE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT WITH AN OVERALL
LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LIFT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED VIA KEY MESSAGE 1 IS EXPECTED TO
STALL WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA DOWN TOWARDS THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
REGION. A PACKET OF UPPER LEVEL OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN IS PROGGED
TO PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE NATION'S MID SECTION THIS WEEKEND AND
GET CLOSER TO THE REGION DURING SUNDAY. HOW MUCH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
STAYS INTACT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH THE ENERGY CAN INTERACT WITH
THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND WHETHER SUFFICIENT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT
CAN TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE WEEKEND. FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH BOTH AI
AND NWP MODELS DIFFER IN HOW MUCH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT TAKES
PLACE, AND THUS ULTIMATELY HOW FAR NORTH COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CAN
LIFT NORTH. THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH ANY RAIN CAN GETS AND
WHETHER OUR AREA WILL SEE A WET CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOES NOT SUPPORT ANOTHER MAJOR COASTAL STORM
AS FORECAST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS POINT TO A WEAKER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE. THUS, AT THIS TIME IMPACTS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRES BUILDS OFFSHORE TODAY, AND REMAINS OVER THE ATLC THRU
THU.
MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS HOVERING AROUND 3000 FT.
MAINLY NW FLOW THRU EARLY THIS MRNG, ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABILITY
IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW. KJFK FORECAST TO GET MORE OF
A SEA BREEZE TODAY, WITH LGA AND EWR POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME SW ALL AREAS
THIS EVE. WINDS AOB 10KT THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE LIKELY AT KJFK AND POSSIBLE AT KLGA AND
KEWR.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE,
MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
OCEAN WAVE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY LOWER FROM AROUND 3 FT ON
AVERAGE, TO CLOSER TO 2 FT THROUGH MID WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL PROVIDE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT,
AND THUS LIGHT WINDS AND QUIETER SEAS. TOWARDS LATE THURSDAY AND
INTO FRIDAY A PREVAILING SW FLOW INCREASES SOME. HOWEVER, CONDITIONS
AT THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS RESULTING IN A
WIND SHIFT TO THE N, AND EVENTUALLY TO THE NE DURING SATURDAY. GUSTS
OUT ON THE OCEAN AND SOME OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS APPROACH 20 KT
WITH OCEAN SEAS LIKELY UP TO AROUND 4 FT, THUS NON-ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST EARLY ON IN THE WEEKEND. A LONG E-SE FETCH
IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS BY THEN.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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