060
FXUS61 KOKX 222003
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
303 PM EST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AS OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE ALSO DEVELOPS. THE LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER OUT INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON CHRISTMAS DAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNING
AT NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW WILL PASS NEARBY FROM FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT. LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY, SO DO NOT EXPECT
ANY PRECIP UNTIL LATE, UNTIL ABOUT 09Z-11Z, FOR NYC, THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY, AND NE NJ. LOW TEMPS ARE A BLEND OF THE NBM AND
THE COLDER GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE, WITH LOWER 30S IN/JUST OUTSIDE
NYC, AND 25-30 ELSEWHERE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR MOST AREAS
WELL NW OF NYC. THE ADVISORY IS PARTLY IMPACT-BASED DUE TO
IMPACT ON THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE, WITH SLICK CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON COLDER, UNTREATED SURFACES.
* LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO THE AREA THROUGH SHOULD MIX WITH AND
CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING, AND
POTENTIALLY MIX WITH RAIN INLAND BY AFTERNOON.
* TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS HAVE INCREASED A LITTLE, TO 2-3 INCHES
WELL INLAND, 1-2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE INTERIOR,
AND AN INCH OR LESS FOR NYC AND THE COAST.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COLDER AND SNOWIER FOR TUE MORNING
WITH THE WARM FRONTAL APPROACH. NBM AND 12Z HREF ARE MOSTLY IN
LINE WITH A 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL FOR A GOOD DEAL OF THE INTERIOR NW
OF THE NYC METRO AREA AND I-95 IN SW CT.
INCREASING SW FLOW AT THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN WARMING THE
BOUNDARY LAYER AND AND FORCE A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW BY MID TO
LATE MORNING ALONG THE COAST, BEFORE GRADUALLY BECOMING LIGHT
RAIN. THIS TRANSITION SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INLAND TO AREA NW OF
NYC AND ALONG THE CT COAST, BUT MAY STRUGGLE TO FULLY
CHANGE OVER IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BEFORE PRECIPITATION
SHUTS OFF THERE. PRECIP WILL SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON
MORE ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT, AND WIND DOWN DURING
FROM THE NYC METRO AREA NORTH/WEST.
QPF IS A LITTLE OVER 1/4 INCH MAINLY NW OF NYC AND ACROSS PARTS
OF LONG ISLAND, AND SLIGHTLY LESS ELSEWHERE, LIMITING POTENTIAL
SNOWFALL IN THE NYC METRO AREA AND MOST OF LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN
CT. IN COMBO WITH EXPECTED THERMAL PROFILES THIS IS SUPPORTIVE
OF A 2-3 INCH SNOWFALL WELL INLAND, 1-2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
REST OF THE INTERIOR, AND AN INCH OR LESS FOR NYC AND THE
COAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES COVER MOST AREAS WHERE AT LEAST
2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL, SLIGHTLY LESS THAN STRICT CRITERIA
OF 3 INCHES DUE TO IMPACT ON THE MORNING COMMUTE, PARTICULARLY
ON ANY COLDER, UNTREATED SURFACES.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING BY AFTERNOON AS PRECIP BEGINS
TO TAPER OFF, EVEN INLAND, WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID/UPPER 30S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE NYC METRO AREA AND ALONG THE
COAST.
IT WILL BE BRISK TUE NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND AS
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE OFFSHORE WARM FRONT SE OF LONG ISLAND
DEVELOPS AND INTENSIFIES. THIS WILL PREVENT HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST FROM BUILDING IN UNTIL WED NIGHT. LOW TEMPS TUE NIGHT
WILL BE MOSTLY 30-35, WITH HIGHS ON WED 40-45. IT WILL BE COLDER
WED NIGHT VIA BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN
AND WINDS DIMINISH, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
* CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS ACTIVE AS A SERIES OF NORTHERN
STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEMS IMPACTS THE REGION. THERE IS A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESE LOWS, AND
THEREFORE THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS THE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE ACROSS THE
REGION.
FIRST, THE FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR CHRISTMAS DAY HAVE NOW TRENDED
FARTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITH LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS TO THE
REGION EXPECTED, AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. CURRENTLY THERE IS NOW ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MIXED RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE AREA, I.E, PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY,
NEW YORK CITY, AND SOUTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF LONG ISLAND.
SECOND, WITH THE HIGH TO THE NORTH, AND POTENTIALLY COLDER AIR
IN PLACE, ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO
IMPACT THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW, WITH SOME GLOBAL
GUIDANCE KEEPING THE LOW FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST, AND
SLOWER, WITH FAR LESS IMPACTS, WHILE OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE
TRACKS THE LOW CLOSER, AND QUICKER, TO THE REGION, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION, SNOW ACCUMULATION,
AND IMPACTS. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE FOLLOWED THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT, WITH COLDER AIR NOW
EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE, THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE
SNOW ACROSS THE REGION, POTENTIALLY BEGINNING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX
ALONG THE COAST, FRIDAY MORNING, AND CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY. CURRENTLY THE BEST TIMING FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AND DEPENDING IS
WARMER AIR CAN MOVE IN ALOFT LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT,
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND
POSSIBLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN CONNECTICUT.
THIRD, THE COLD AIR POTENTIALLY RETREATS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO
TRACK WEST, WELL INLAND, OF THE REGION, WITH THE PRECIPITATION
BEING MAINLY A SNOW/RAIN MIX, GOING OVER TO ALL RAIN FOR A TIME
SUNDAY.
FOURTH, DRY WEATHER RETURNS MONDAY AND POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND
TRACKS OF THE LOWS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, SO REMAIN UP TO
DATE WITH THE FORECASTS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY GIVES WAY TO A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY.
VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR DURING THE
TUESDAY MORNING PUSH WITH LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING, CHANGING TO
RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION ENDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
W-SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT, BECOMING SW UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY PM: IFR/MVFR WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF MVFR WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX.
FRIDAY MORNING: VFR.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON - SATURDAY: MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW OR MIXED
PRECIPITATION. E-NE GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY WIND FORECASTS, CAN BE
FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
QUIET ON THE WATERS ATTM. INCREASING SW FLOW ON TUE COULD GUST
UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES ON THE OCEAN IN THE AFTERNOON AS SEAS
BUILD TO 4 FT. SCA NOT PLANNED FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS TIME
FRAME FOR ANY 25-KT GUSTS WILL BE BRIEF.
SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MY WATERS FROM LATE TUE EVENING
INTO WED MORNING AS NW WINDS GUST TO 25-30 KT. COULD SEE GUSTS
BRIEFLY TOUCHING MINIMAL GALE ON THE OUTER ERN OCEAN WATERS
EARLY WED MORNING, NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WATCH.
SCA COND SHOULD LINGER ON THE OCEAN AND THE ERN SOUND INTO WED
AFTERNOON, THEN SUBSIDE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NEAR THE FORECAST WATERS ON CHRISTMAS
DAY WINDS AND SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS WILL BE AT SCA LEVELS
AND SUBSIDE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO
THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW PASSES NEAR THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS AND SEAS
FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. YET ANOTHER LOW AFFECTS THE WATERS SUNDAY
WITH THE RETURN OF SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
CTZ005.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
NYZ067>070.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-103.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BG/MET
NEAR TERM...BG
SHORT TERM...BG
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BG/MET
HYDROLOGY...BG/MET
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