203
FXUS61 KOKX 242357
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
757 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NON-
COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, THE
FORECAST IS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH,
BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH MONDAY AND
PART OF MONDAY NIGHT. THE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WAVE HEIGHTS MEAN
THAT SURF HEIGHTS HAVE DIMINISHED TO BELOW 7 FT, AND THUS THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR SHOWERS AND ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A THUNDERSTORMS MEMORIAL DAY MORNING, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WET AND COOL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF
MEMORIAL DAY, WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.
2) HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE INTO MEMORIAL DAY, WITH
A MODERATE RISK FOR TUESDAY.
3) WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING OVER THE REGION WILL PUSH
EASTWARD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH A MAIN BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION SLIDING EASTWARD. THE STEADY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON
WILL BE BECOME MORE LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG WITH A WARM FRONT NEAR THE REGION.
FOR MEMORIAL DAY, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH MODELS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT. THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN DRAGS A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
ALOFT. IT IS LIKELY THAT THE PRECIPITATION THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA MONDAY MORNING WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS SHOWN IN
LATEST CAMS. LATEST NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW PWATS AHEAD OF THIS
COLD FRONT BETWEEN 1.75-2.00 INCHES, WHICH IS WELL ABOVE THE MAX
MOVING AVERAGE FOR THE OKX OBSERVED SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME HIGHER RAINFALL RATES FOR THE AREA WITH ISOLATED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE GOOD THING IS THAT THE SPEED OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON MONDAY MORNING
WILL BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN
THE HEAVIER DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED
0.75 INCHES PER HOUR. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY DUE
TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SWELL. WHILE MEMORIAL
DAY AFTERNOON WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP, THE LINGERING SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS. FOR TUESDAY, THE
OVERALL FORECAST IS FOR A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.
HOWEVER, THERE MAY BE A LINGERING HIGH RISK OF CURRENTS FOR A
FEW HOURS IN THE EARLY TO MID MORNING HOURS.
THE SLOWLY DIMINISHING WAVE HEIGHTS MEAN THAT SURF HEIGHTS HAVE
DIMINISHED TO BELOW 7 FT, AND THUS THE HIGH SURF ADVISORIES
HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME LOW 80S
FOR THE USUAL WARMER SPOTS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES MAY RISE INTO THE MID 80S. THE
FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH DRY, BUT BRING A RETURN TO SEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WARM FRONT PASSES THRU THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT QUICKLY FOLLOWS LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TNGT WITH -RA AND DZ. LIFR WILL
DEVELOP THRU 6Z, AND REMAIN IN PLACE THRU MON MRNG. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR VISIBILITIES TO LOWER TO 1/4SM IN FOG THRU AT LEAST
12Z MON.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING WITH THE COLD
FRONT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM AND A PROB30
REMAINS FOR THIS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
MONDAY MORNING, THEN VFR GENERALLY AFT 22Z, ALTHOUGH THERE IS
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING ATTM.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, BECOMING W-SW LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON UNDER 10
KT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN AROUND 00Z TUE.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LIFR CONDITIONS ONSET MAY BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR 1/4SM FG INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AMENDMENTS TO TIMING OF PROB30 TSRA MONDAY MORNING POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH WINDS DIMINISHING, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL NON-
COASTAL WATERS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, THE
FORECAST IS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH,
BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH MEMORIAL
DAY. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO JONES BEACH OUT
20NM, THE ADVISORY IS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING AND FROM JONES
BEACH INLET TO MONTAUK AND OUT 20 NM THE ADVISORY GOES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER, WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
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