446
FXUS61 KOKX 150938
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
538 AM EDT MON JUN 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH TUESDAY.
2) WATER LEVELS WILL BE CLOSE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
3) A ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER THIS
WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING, DRY AND SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP THROUGH TUESDAY. ALOFT, THE WESTERLIES
WILL DOMINATE THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY WITH A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ALL THE WAY TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES. AT
THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST THROUGH TUESDAY,
THEN OFFSHORE LATER IN THE DAY. GUSTY NW WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL FALL BY AFTERNOON. A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO THE RECENT NEW MOON WILL
GRADUALLY FALL OFF THROUGH MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, WATER LEVELS WILL
BE CLOSE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS DURING THE NIGHTTIME
HIGH TIDE CYCLES FOR THE MORE VULNERABLE LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH
SHORE OF NASSAU, COASTAL FAIRFIELD, AND PORTIONS OF LOWER NY
HARBOR. WITHOUT MUCH WIND FORCING, EXPECT THIS TO MAINLY BE
STATEMENT WORTHY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, WILL BE ON TAP
FOR WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE WILL BE FROM NYC AND POINTS NORTH
AND WEST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONABLE, BUT HUMIDITY WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY (DAY 5) WITH
A 15% CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. DETAILS REGARDING THIS POSSIBLE
SYSTEM WILL COME INTO FOCUS IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT PASSES OFFSHORE THIS MRNG.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THIS MRNG BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH ALL AREAS LIKELY VFR BY 12Z. VFR THEN THRU THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
GENERALLY SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, WITH WINDS BECOMING
NW AFT THE FROPA THEN PERSISTING THRU TNGT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH A CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH A CHANCES OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS
INCREASING TOWARDS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY: SUB VFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH W WINDS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY A FEW
SOUTHERLY GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 KT, MORE SO FOR THE WESTERN
OCEAN WATERS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THURSDAY IS
FORECAST TO BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH A LINGERING 2 TO 3 FT LIGHT
SOUTHERLY SWELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DW
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