409
FXUS61 KOKX 181123
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SUNSHINE AND SEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FROST FORMATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR TONIGHT.
2) A NON-TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPS EAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS
WEEK AND SLOWLY TRACKS NORTH OFF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH MID
TO LATE WEEK. COASTAL IMPACTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A SEASONABLY COOL AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DROP TO NEAR
FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE WINDS HAVE LIGHTENED, WITH A
BIT MILDER CONDITIONS INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S ALONG THE COAST
IN WEAK N FLOW.
AFTER THE COLDEST MORNING SINCE LATE SPRING, TEMPERATURES REBOUND
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD AND A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT WILL ALLOW
FOR CLEAR SKIES AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED WITH THE HIGH IN PLACE AND WINDS
HAVE LIGHTENED AS A RESULT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALL BACK INTO THE 30S INLAND AND 40S
ALONG THE COAST, THOUGH LIKELY A COUPLE OF DEGREES MILDER THAN
THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE INTERIOR REMAINS A COUPLE OF DEGREES
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK, BUT THE COLDEST LOCALES MAY FREEZE.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE FROST IN THESE SPOTS, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY MARGINAL, AND UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING FROM A CUT OFF UPPER
LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN EARLY THIS
WEEK AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY N OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
GLOBAL DYNAMICAL AND AI BASED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT
NOTABLE SPREAD IN THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE LOW, WITH
VARYING DEGREES OF IMPACTS LOCALLY. THE 00Z GEFS AND EPS ARE
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND GENERALLY WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM, PULLING
THE CENTER FURTHER OUT TO SEA BY THU/FRI AS ITS INFLUENCED BY A
TROUGH SWINGING EAST INTO THE N ATLANTIC. THEIR AI COUNTERPARTS
OFFER A DEEPER LOW PLACED FARTHER WEST AND CLOSER TO THE COAST.
THE LATTER APPEARS TO BE AN UNLIKELY, THOUGH STILL POSSIBLE,
SOLUTION THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN SUBSEQUENT CYCLES.
FOR NOW, PERSISTENT NE FLOW MUCH CAN BE EXPECTED MUCH OF THIS
WEEK, WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS BY MIDWEEK.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED SPREAD IN OUTCOMES AND SUBSEQUENT POTENTIAL
RANGE OF IMPACTS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER MID TO LATE
THIS WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TODAY, THEN STARTS RETREATING NORTH TONIGHT.
N WINDS WILL BECOME NNE-NE THIS MORNING, THEN MAY BRIEFLY
BECOME ENE LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD BACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10 KT OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS MAY BEGIN INCREASING MONDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL TERMINALS
WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS COULD BRIEFLY GO E THIS EVENING, 22-02Z, BUT WIND SPEEDS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT.
GUSTS MONDAY MORNING MAY BE OCCASIONAL.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: VFR. NE WIND G15-20 KT POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY: VFR. N-NE WIND G15-25 KT, HIGHEST
NEAR THE COAST.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. N-NE WINDS G20-30 KT, HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST.
THURSDAY: VFR. N WINDS G15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
N WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KT CONTINUE ON THE NEAR SHORE OCEAN
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SEAS AROUND 5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS
LOWER BY MID MORNING, AND THEN SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
ALL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY RAMP BACK UP TO SCA CRITERIA ON THE
OCEAN MONDAY MORNING. PERSISTENT NE WINDS CAN THEN BE EXPECTED
MONDAY THRU THURSDAY AS SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE REMAINS S OF
THE WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ON MOST WATERS THRU
THE PERIOD, WITH GALES POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN, ESPECIALLY IN THE
20-60NM OFFSHORE ZONES WHERE A GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
OCEAN SEAS ABOVE 10 FT DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY AND POTENTIALLY
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067-068.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ380-383-385.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DR
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