082  
FXUS61 KOKX 222036  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
336 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEP LOW  
PASSING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE  
UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS  
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LOW  
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
 
 
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN  
STATES TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS.  
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG  
SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT. THE REGION ALSO LIES NEAR THE RIGHT  
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-160 KT JET TO OUR NORTHEAST. MODEL  
PROFILES INDICATE THERE COULD BE SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS  
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT LATE TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL MOSTLY  
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.  
 
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, BUT LOWS  
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S INLAND TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S  
ELSEWHERE ARE FORECAST. IF THE HIGH CLOUDS END UP THICKER, THEN  
THESE LOWS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A FEW DEGREES.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY WITH  
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY.  
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY  
WAS TO REMOVE POPS. DPROG/DT ON THE MODELS INDICATES A SLOWER TREND  
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL  
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND  
EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.  
 
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION  
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND A APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE  
SOUTH WILL DEVELOP PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST  
TREND CONTINUES TO BE FOR A SLOWER ONSET TIMING OF THE  
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF  
FROZEN PRECIP. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL  
RISE WELL ABOVE 0C THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO  
BE NEAR +10C EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD START  
OUT NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND  
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. IT IS HERE WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF  
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, THIS EVENT  
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN.  
 
RAIN CONTINUES SUNDAY MORNING AND IT COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT  
TIMES. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH  
RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL TRY  
TO PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT MAY NOT COMPLETELY DO SO.  
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOW 50S SOUTH AND MIDDLE TO  
UPPER 40S INLAND. IF THE WARM FRONT DOES LIFT NORTH, THEN  
TEMPERATURES COULD END UP A BIT HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON. A TRAILING  
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SHOWER  
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS FRONT, SO POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED IN  
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE. ANY STRONG WINDS LOOK TO HOLD OFF  
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, BEHIND A  
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS WILL  
LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT REACHING WIND ADV CRITERIA AND  
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL LESSEN MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH  
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. A WEEK SYSTEM MIGHT  
IMPACT THE ARE ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN  
BOUNCE BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY  
MORNING, THEN MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY  
AFTERNOON.  
 
VFR.  
 
NW-N WINDS AROUND 10 KT DIMINISH AROUND 22Z, AND GRADUALLY BECOME  
MORE NORTHERNLY. WINDS WILL VEER TO N THIS EVENING, THEN NE  
OVERNIGHT. AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND  
VARIABLE. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME E, THEN SE  
DURING THE AFTERNOON, LESS THAN 10 KT.  
 
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS, CAN  
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
 
   
SATURDAY AFTERNOON
 
VFR.    
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
 
IFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN DEVELOPING.  
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AT KSWF.    
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
 
VFR. MONDAY W-NW WINDS 15-25KT G35-45KT.  
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE.    
TUESDAY
 
VFR.   
WEDNESDAY
 
MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SUB-  
SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE  
NEXT STORM SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY  
MORNING AND WINDS ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ARE LIKELY TO REACH 25  
TO 30 KT. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD ALSO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA  
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD  
OF A COLD FRONT.  
 
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD  
FRONT. GALES WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STORM  
FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY  
HEADLINES, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.  
 
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT, FALLING BELOW SCA LEVELS BY  
LATE TUESDAY. SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL  
BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED  
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
THIS HAS BEEN A TOUGH WINTER IN THE TRI-STATE AREA OVERALL TO  
RETAIN COLD AIR LONG ENOUGH WHEN PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN. MOST  
OF OUR EVENTS THIS WINTER HAVE BEEN OVERRUNNING SET-UPS THAT  
HAVE SEEN THE COLD AIR LARGELY RETREAT JUST BEFORE OR SHORTLY  
AFTER THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT, WE'VE SEEN BELOW  
NORMAL SNOW AT ALL OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS FOR THE SNOW SEASON  
TO DATE AND ESPECIALLY FOR METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.  
 
FOR CENTRAL PARK, THE SEASONAL TOTAL AS OF TODAY STANDS AT 10.0  
INCHES WHICH IS 9.2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL AND RANKS AS THE 31ST  
LEAST SNOWIEST SEASON TO DATE BASED ON RECORDS BACK TO 1869.  
HOWEVER, 6.4 INCHES OF THIS FELL DURING THE NOVEMBER 15TH STORM.  
THE TOTAL FOR METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER,  
JANUARY AND FEBRUARY) IS JUST 3.6 INCHES WHICH IF WE GET NO MORE  
MEASURABLE SNOW THIS MONTH WOULD FINISH AS THE 7TH LEAST  
SNOWIEST SUCH PERIOD ON RECORD DATING BACK TO 1869. THERE IS  
STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW BEFORE THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY  
CLOSES OUT SO THIS RANKING IS NOT FINAL.  
 
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE AREA THIS DECEMBER AND JANUARY RANKED AS  
THE SECOND LEAST SNOWIEST SUCH PERIOD AT LAGUARDIA BACK TO 1940  
WITH 0.6 INCH (ONLY EXCEEDED BY 1994-1995 WITH 0.3 INCH) AND AT  
ISLIP BACK TO 1963 WITH 0.9 INCH (ONLY EXCEEDED BY A TRACE IN  
1994-1995). 1994-1995 WAS A WINTER LARGELY MARKED BY ONE MAJOR  
SNOWSTORM IN EARLY FEBRUARY THAT ACCOUNTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF  
THAT SEASON'S SNOW.  
 
MARCH IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD AND EVEN A HANDFUL OF APRILS  
HAVE HAD THEIR SHARE OF NOTABLE SNOWS SO WINTER - OR AT LEAST  
THE SNOW SEASON - IS NOT OVER YET. SOME MAY REMEMBER THE WINTER  
OF 1997-1998 WHEN THE SEASONAL SNOW TOTAL STOOD AT 0.5 INCH  
UNTIL LATE MARCH IN CENTRAL PARK WHEN THE LATEST INCH OR MORE  
EVENT EVER TOOK PLACE ON THE 22ND DEPOSITING 5.0 INCHES.  
IRONICALLY 5 DAYS LATER HIGHS SOARED INTO THE 80S AND MANY TREES  
STARTED TO SPROUT THEIR LEAVES FOR THE SPRING MARKING ONE OF  
THE EARLIEST LEAF SPROUTINGS IN THIS AREA IN MEMORY.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC CENTRAL PARK WINDS ARE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.  
LOSS OF DATA IS DUE TO A SEVERED CABLE. PARTS ARE ON ORDER.  
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) WILL REMAIN OFF  
THE AIR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DS  
NEAR TERM...DS  
SHORT TERM...DS  
LONG TERM...FIG  
AVIATION...19  
MARINE...FIG/DS  
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DS  
CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...  
 
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