511
FXUS61 KOKX 011445
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1045 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN LI, SW CT, NYC, NE NJ,
AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
2) AFTER A LULL IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY,
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.
3) DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM, WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY. THERE AIRMASS IS STILL MOSTLY STABLE
AT THE SURFACE, SO NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.
THE MAIN FOCUS OF CONCERN WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
MORNING, BUT ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA INTO NEW ENGLAND WILL SEND THE FRONT BACK
TO THE SOUTHWEST AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE EAST BEHIND IT.
WHILE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH THE AIRMASS WILL
DESTABILIZE IN THE WARM SECTOR TODAY, HREF MEAN SBCAPE VALUES
ARE STILL 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE MARGINAL AND SLIGHT RISK
AREAS. GREATEST INSTABILITY WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC
METRO. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS 40-50KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR 0-3KM. SPC HAS INCLUDED PART OF THE
AREA IN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR TORNADOES (LESS THAN 5 PERCENT).
HOWEVER, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL AROUND 6C.
THE FLOOD THREAT REMAINS LOW WITH THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THIS IS FOR AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT. WHILE THE AIRMASS IS LOADED WITH MOISTURE, PW VALUES
AROUND 2 INCHES, THERE IS DECENT STORM MOTION IN THE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. TRAINING DOES NOT SEEM LIKELY IN THIS EVENT. SPC
HREF PROBABILITIES ARE GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT FOR AN 1" IN 3
HOURS, BUT LESS THAN 10 PERCENT FOR 3" IN 3 HOURS.
MUCH OF THE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD DROP SOUTH AND
WEST OF THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z (8 PM).
KEY MESSAGE 2
AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A MUCH MORE STABLE AIRMASS
ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO STAY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION BEFORE STARTING TO MOVE
BACK IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS A WARM FRONT. SPC HAS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, MAINLY DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR SOUTH AND
WEST THE FRONT GETS. RIGHT NOW, EXPECTING MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA. THE AIRMASS WILL THEN WARM UP AND
DESTABILIZE THURSDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SPC HAS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA UNDER A
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK AND WPC HAS THE ENTIRE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. DETAILS SHOULD FALL BETTER INTO
LINE IN THE NEXT 24H.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A DRIER PATTERN WILL SET UP FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM NORMAL. LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
FORECAST.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WARM FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
TO THE SOUTH AND STALL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
MVFR-IFR FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AT MOST TERMINALS WITH AN
AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS. A THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. SOME
BRIEF IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
FROM THE NYC METRO TERMINALS ON NORTH AND WEST, WHERE BRIEF VFR
IS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
18-20Z, THEN MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z. THE HIGHEST
CHANCES REMAIN FROM WESTERN CT/WESTERN LONG ISLAND ACROSS THE
NYC METRO TERMINALS INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
IFR SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
THIS EVENING ONCE THE FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. IFR WILL THEN
PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH CONDITIONS LOCALLY LIFR
POSSIBLE FOR OUTLYING TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
AFTER 15Z WEDNESDAY, BUT SHOULD REMAIN MVFR.
S-SW FLOW 10 KT OR LESS DEVELOPS INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NYC
TERMINALS ON NW. ELSEWHERE, WINDS MAY REMAIN SE-S OR VARIABLE AT
TIMES 5-8 KT. E-NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
PROB30 TSRA MAY CONTINUE UNTIL 17Z.
TSRA TIMING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
TIMING OF BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
CONDITIONS COULD REMAIN MVFR AT LGA AND JFK.
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE NE THIS EVENING MAY BE OFF BY 1-3
HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: IFR TO START WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWER POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEK IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE THAT STEEP. MAINLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST. MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE OCEAN
FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY IN A STRENGTHENING
EASTERLY FLOW.
RIP CURRENTS:
THERE IS A LOW RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TODAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SWELLS UNDER 2 FT. THE RISK INCREASES TO
MODERATE ON WEDNESDAY WITH 3 TO 4 FT E SWELLS AT A 7 SEC PERIOD,
AND NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT DEVELOPING BY LATE AFTERNOON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...DS/MW
MARINE...DW
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