713
FXUS61 KOKX 010227
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1027 PM EDT THU APR 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A FEW SHOWERS THIS EVENING, DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF THE
WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE.
3) A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD FRONT
AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH ANY
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, WITH GENERALLY ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH EXPECTED IN ANY ONE LOCATION. THE RAIN DISSIPATES
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A DRY AND
SEASONABLE DAY, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS RISING INTO THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA BRINGS A RENEWED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA, BUT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AGAIN LOOK TO REMAIN LIGHT.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD
TAPER QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING WELL
OFFSHORE BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE REGION, PRIMARILY LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ONCE
AGAIN REMAIN LIGHT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST.
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. DESPITE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE,
DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60.
KEY MESSAGE 3
TEMPS ON MON WILL STILL BE UP TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE AS
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE S SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE. AFTER A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE MON NIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NW
OF NYC, TEMPS TUE-WED SHOULD INCREASE TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL INLAND WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S, AND A COUPLE OF
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TOWARD THE COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
NEAR 70.
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
AREAS NW OF NYC TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER COVERAGE EXPECTED WED NIGHT-THU, WITH POP INCREASING TO
LIKELY. TSTMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE THU AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST IN RESPONSE TO
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFICATION OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES, AND A
STRENGTHENING SFC LOW PASSING WELL NW. TEMPS ON THU WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS WARM BUT SHOULD STILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70. QPF WED-THU RANGES FROM ABOUT
0.75 INCH WEST TO 1.00-1.50 INCH EAST. AT THIS EXTENDED TIME
RANGE IT'S MUCH TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON POSSIBLE HYDROLOGIC
IMPACTS OTHER THAN NUISANCE PONDING IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREA.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
THROUGH FRIDAY.
MAINLY VFR.
A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THRU 3Z FOR CITY TERMINALS, NO
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
NW FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING, LASTING THRU THE NIGHT.
SPEEDS GENERALLY AT OR UNDER 10 KT. SEA BREEZE LIKELY DEVELOPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, WITH COASTAL TERMINALS BECOMING S OR SW.
LOWERING CIGS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD AND
AFTER 6Z SAT, MAINLY KSWF AND CITY TERMINALS.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SPOTTY SHOWER AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THRU 3Z THIS
EVENING, NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
TIMING OF SEA BREEZE (S/SW) FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE OFF BY A
COUPLE OF HOURS.
WIND DIRECTION AT EWR ON FRI COULD BE AROUND 130 TRUE IF THE
SEA BREEZE GETS INTO THE ARPT.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF MVFR W/ -RA POSSIBLE
AT TIMES. LIGHT FLOW.
SUNDAY: VFR WITH NW FLOW.
MONDAY: VFR WITH SW FLOW.
TUESDAY: VFR WITH STRONG S FLOW. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AFT 00Z.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH SUNDAY AS
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL SOUTH AND EAST.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND S WINDS INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY ON THE
OCEAN FROM MON AFTERNOON INTO WED, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20-25 KT
AND SEAS ABOVE 5 FT, BUILDING AS HIGH AS 6-8 FT MON NIGHT-TUE.
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EACH AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, SCA
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON THE LONG
ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS, NY HARBOR, AND THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
SOUND. A FEW GUSTS JUST SHY OF GALE FORCE MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH
THE AMBROSE JET ON THE OCEAN FROM SANDY HOOK TO FIRE ISLAND
INLET LATE DAY TUE AND WED.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEB/GOODMAN/DR
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...FEB/GOODMAN
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