041
FXUS61 KOKX 181141
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRIER AND COOLER TODAY WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
2) MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS ARE LIKELY TO BE MET OR EXCEEDED AT
MANY COASTAL LOCATIONS FOR TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
3) COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BRINGS SHOWERS AND A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS
INTO THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
4) GRADUAL WARMING TREND MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND MAINTAINS DRIER
AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND.
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE HIGH BY LATE MORNING, AND
EXPECTING A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO COME WITH IT,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THE COOL WIND OFF THE WATERS
(SSTS IN THE LOW 50S) AND LIMITED SUN SHOULD RESTRAIN
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH HIGHS
ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND MUCH OF CT ONLY GETTING INTO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S.
TO THE NORTH AND WEST AWAY FROM THIS MARITIME INFLUENCE,
ADDITIONAL SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB MORE INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOWER 70S. CLOUDS THEN BUILD IN REGION WIDE
BY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WITH FRIDAY'S NEW MOON, WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN ASTRONOMICALLY
HIGH FOR THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS.
A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW, INITIALLY OUT OF THE ENE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
GRADUALLY VEERS TO THE ESE TOWARDS THIS EVENING. THIS ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT SHOULD SLIGHTLY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL AND EXTENT OF
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS. THEREFORE, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES AND
STATEMENTS ARE NOW IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
KEY MESSAGE 3
BROAD UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT, PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY SUNDAY. A SPRAWLING CANADIAN HIGH THEN
BUILDS IN FOR EARLY WEEK.
ASSOCIATED RAIN WITH THE FRONT DEVELOPS AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT
FOR WESTERN AREAS, GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE REST OF THE
REGION INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS AND RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING NEARBY ARE
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL FORCING, OTHERWISE A LIGHT TO
MODERATE BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH FROM EARLY SUNDAY
AM INTO THE AFTERNOON. QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT, AVERAGING
BETWEEN A QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY SUNDAY EVENING. OTHER THAN
TYPICAL PONDING IN URBANIZED AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, NO HYDRO
CONCERNS FROM THIS ACTIVITY. STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THE
RAIN TAPERS AS SOME WET FLAKES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT, BUT NO IMPACTS EXPECTED IF
THIS WERE TO OCCUR.
A SHARPLY COLDER AIR MASS THEN BRIEFLY SETTLES IN THROUGH TUESDAY.
EARLY DAY HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH THE FROPA
OCCURRING IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 40S THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS CAA KICKS IN ON NW FLOW. COLD
ADVECTION ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LEAD
TO TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT
IN THE NYC METRO WHERE LOW 40S APPEAR LIKELY.
CYCLONIC FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT
SHOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRATOCU MONDAY AFTERNOON.
CONTINUE TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS (~15%), WITH POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW BRIEF POP UP SHOWERS. A FEW COULD EVEN CONTAIN ICE PELLETS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. COLDEST OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HELPING TO
EFFICIENTLY COOL THE BL. A WIDESPREAD FREEZE APPEARS LIKELY
OUTSIDE THE URBAN NYC METRO, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO MID 30S IN THE CITY, OR ABOUT 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE COOLER REGIME IS SHORT-LIVED, WITH GRADUAL MODERATION RETURNING
CONDITIONS TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 4
GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH, SETTING A MILDER SW FLOW.
WHILE FAR FROM THE EARLY SEASON HEAT EARLIER THIS WEEK, DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO THE 60S AND 70S FOR MOST, AND MAY
TREND EVEN WARMER TO END THE WEEK AS RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD
OVER THE EAST. ABSENT A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY, MUCH OF MID TO LATE WEEK LOOKS DRY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NOSED IN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TODAY.
THE HIGH RETREATS TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST, AND MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING, AND
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING AS STRATUS AND
FOG CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE EAST AND
MAY MOVE INTO THE NYC METRO TERMINALS A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN
FORECAST. IFR TO LIFR THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH
SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
A LIGHT ENE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WINDS VEERING TO E/SE TO
AROUND 10 KT. WINDS REMAIN SE INTO THIS EVENING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. AMENDMENTS FOR TIMING OF LOWERING
CEILINGS LIKELY.
VFR TO START, WITH TIMING OF LOWERING CONDITIONS TO IFR AND
POSSIBLY LIFR UNCERTAIN AS STRATUS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
EAST, AND MAY MOVE IN A FEW HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY: IFR TO LIFR EARLY WITH SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM,
BECOMING MVFR. WINDS SHIFT TO NW, GUSTS 25-30 KT LATE MORNING
INTO THE EVENING.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY, OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) THRESHOLDS
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE TODAY.
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AROUND ON SOME OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING, ERODING BY 13Z. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND
MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY. NW WIND DEVELOP BEHIND THE FROPA
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, AND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 25 KT INTO
SUNDAY EVENING. OCEAN SEAS WILL ALSO APPROACH 5 FT, ESPECIALLY
OUT 20-60 NM. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST THE OCEAN, WITH POTENTIAL ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS AS WELL
WITH MARGINAL WINDS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT, AND
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED INTO MIDWEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR NYZ071-078-176-177.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NYZ074-178-179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ335-338-
345-355-385.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DR
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