234
FXUS61 KOKX 161950
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
350 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER CHANCE FOR LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
2) DRY AND PLEASANT FRIDAY INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
3) WET WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY
CARRYING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SHIFTS OFFSHORE TO THE EAST ALLOWING FOR
A RETURN S FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FOG INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS
SOME LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO COOL FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY WITH A LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WIND.
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO LOWER LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THERE REMAINS A THE RELATIVELY HIGHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY AND DURING THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
THE ACTIVITY INITIALLY WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST, WITH ANY ACTIVITY RIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
PERHAPS HOLDING TOGETHER SOME AS IT SLIDES EAST. ESSENTIALLY CARRIED
CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM NW TO SE VERY LATE IN THE DAY THU
THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NWP AND AI CONSENSUS
TO GET OFF THE COAST BY 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. QPF OUTPUT AT THIS TIME
REMAINS RATHER LIGHT WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL, THOUGH NORTHERNMOST SPOTS MAY END UP WITH A MORE THAN A
TENTH OF AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE
FORECAST THE GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE 60S MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY,
AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S LATER FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS WOULD ALLOW OUTLYING AREAS TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S
WITH RESPECT TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE GETTING FURTHER EAST DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A
DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE UPPER 60S TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL BRING MORE
CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TOWARDS SUNDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY CARRYING LIKELY POPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY,
WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS SUNDAY NIGHT. AFTERWARDS THERE IS SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE FRONT ULTIMATELY LOCKS UP DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SUGGESTION THAT THE FRONT GOES QUASI-
STATIONARY. SOME NWP DETERMINISTIC RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE FRONT NUDGING
TO THE SOUTH AND ALLOWING SOME HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE
NORTH, WHILE THE CONSENSUS OF NWP AND AI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT
REMAINS NEARBY OR AT LEAST CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING AN ONGOING CHANCE
OF SHOWERS / RAIN FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS BELOW AVERAGE AT THIS TIME WITH UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD MAY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING AN
ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SLIDES OFFSHORE INTO TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
VFR.
A LIGHT SW OR S FLOW THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS. WINDS LIGHTEN THIS EVENING, AND MAY GO
VARIABLE AT SOME TERMINALS. S OR SW FLOW RESUMES ON THURSDAY,
SPEEDS AROUND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS BY LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY AT KSWF. CHANCE FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS INCREASES THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SHOWERS SPREAD
EAST, MAINLY AFTER 00Z FRI.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE S/SE MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WELL NW OF THE
NYC METRO IN THE AFTERNOON, CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR THURSDAY
NIGHT.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING, VFR BY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: SHOWERS POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT, THEN
BECOMING LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGHOUT THIS
TIME FRAME WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
TOWARDS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP FOR PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN WATERS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT ON A NNW WIND. OTHERWISE, SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
ALLOWING THE WINDS TO BECOME MORE ONSHORE. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS BY SUNDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY THE RIP CURRENT RISK SHOULD BE LOW FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY WITH THE SURF ONLY GETTING TO AROUND A FOOT. A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON ALL SOUTH-FACING LONG ISLAND BEACHES ON
THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY AS A SE SWELL INCREASES UNDER AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GO LIGHT AND TURN
N/NW ON FRIDAY, LEADING TO A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...MW
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