474
FXUS61 KOKX 141129
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
729 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST DURING THIS
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
2) DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH A GUSTY N/NW
FLOW TODAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.
3) NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THEN POTENTIALLY AGAIN FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING, BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN LONG AND EASTERN CT THROUGH THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
THERE MAY BE INITIAL GUSTS WITH THE COLD FRONT OF AROUND 20 KT
AND THEN WITH DEEP MIXING 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WENT A FEW KT HIGHER THAN MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE GIVEN
RECENT EVENTS OF GUIDANCE UNDER DOING COLD ADVECTION IN A N/NW
FLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH MIXING AND THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW, WENT HIGHER
THAN THE NBM AND CLOSER TO MOS WITH HIGHS TODAY. THIS GIVES
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO BE
FILTERING INTO THE AREA, WHICH WILL GIVE THE AIR A COMFORTABLE
FEEL.
TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS FOR THE
INTERIOR. ALONG THE COAST A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE NE FLOW
WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO STOP THE PINE BARRENS AND OTHER USUALLY
COOLER LOCATIONS FROM COMPLETELY DECOUPLING. MID TO UPPER 40S
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR LOWS TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WHICH HAS TRENDED DRIER. NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
A MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE THE SECOND HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE GUIDANCE
IS NOT CONSISTENT ON HOW IT HANDLES THIS SYSTEM AND POPS ARE CAPPED
AROUND 30 PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A BRIEF, ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT THROUGH
13Z.
NW-NNW WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING, BECOMING 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS 20-25 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS MAY BEGIN DIMINISHING
OR BECOME OCCASIONAL AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 10 KT
THIS EVENING AND THEN VEER TO THE N-NNE OVERNIGHT. OUTLYING
TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT N-NNE OR VARIABLE. LIGHT NE-ENE
WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS COULD END UP OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z, AND MAY
END 1-2 HOURS SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF A SHOWER.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS WILL PEAK GENERALLY BETWEEN 20 AND 25 KT. KEPT
THE SCA FOR THE EASTERN TWO OCEAN ZONES. IF OBSERVED WINDS START
COMING IN A BIT HIGHER THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A SCA TO ISSUED FOR
OTHER WATERS.
THEREAFTER, WINDS AND WAVES STAY BELOW SCA.
RIP CURRENTS...
LOW RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AND TUESDAY FOR ALL OCEAN
BEACHES. TODAY, WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE WITH ONLY A 2 FT S/SE SWELL.
ON TUESDAY, THE FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE EAST WITH AN EVEN WEAKER
SWELL. RCMOS AND LOCAL GUIDANCE WERE IN AGREEMENT WITH A LOW
RISK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
353.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JT
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