396
FXUS61 KOKX 180239
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1039 PM EDT MON AUG 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SINCE THE PREVIOUS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS ON THURSDAY, POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. POTENTIAL IMPACTS
APPEAR TO BE LIMITED SO FAR.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SHOWING THE FRONT STALLING TO OUR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY PIVOTING ALONG THE BASE OF A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT ATTEMPTS TO GENERATE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. FURTHER DEEPENING OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST MAY THEN CONTINUE TO SEND WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS AT THIS POINT, BUT A THREAT OF PERIODS
OF RAIN/SHOWERS WITH A LOWER THREAT OF THUNDER PERSISTS FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. SEVERE IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE WAVES
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE MORE
UNCERTAIN DUE TO MODEL SPREAD REGARDING THE TIMING/POSITION OF
THE LOW PRESSURE WAVES AS WELL AS THIS STILL BEING 3+ DAYS AWAY.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MAINLY VFR WITH EXCEPTION OF KGON WHERE IFR STRATUS REMAINS LATE
THIS EVENING. OVERALL, EXPECTING THE LOWER STRATUS TO SPREAD
FARTHER WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS. LOCALIZED LIFR IS POSSIBLE EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TOO WITH MVFR TO IFR
VISIBILITIES, MAINLY EAST OF NYC TERMINALS.
FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON, IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED AS LOWER STRATUS
SCATTERS OUT. THIS IMPROVEMENT WILL BE LATER FOR TERMINALS EAST OF
NYC, WITH MVFR LINGERING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WITH MVFR
POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS ON AVERAGE FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
REGARDING WINDS, NE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KTS WITH SOME LOCATIONS HAVING
MORE VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SEA BREEZES
DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING WITH
MOST TERMINALS GETTING MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS EXCEPT FOR KHPN AND
KSWF WHERE MORE NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON CATEGORY FORECAST. TIMING WITH MVFR AND
IFR COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS COMPARED TO TAF.
TIMING OF SEA BREEZE TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE A FEW HOURS OFF
COMPARED TO TAF, ESPECIALLY FOR KLGA, KEWR, AND KTEB.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY FOR A BRIEF SHOWER WITH
MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER AT
TIMES.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST ALONG
THE OCEAN BEACHES ON TUESDAY. A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
FORECAST FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY. WAVES WILL BE
LOWERING TO MAINLY A 1 TO 3 FT RANGE WITH WINDS REMAINING
LIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JC/JM
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