466
FXUS61 KOKX 160152
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
952 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WIND ADVISORY AND FLOOD WATCH REMAIN UP FOR PORTIONS OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA.
GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS PERIODS OF RAIN AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS COULD
LEAD TO FLOODING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WIND GUSTS
40 TO 50 MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
2) LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION POSSIBLE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
3) A DRIER AND COLDER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO THE AREA MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN UNSETTLED WET AND WINDY START TO THE WORKWEEK.
AMPLIFYING TROUGH SHARPENS OVER THE MIDWEST ON MONDAY, WITH A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW DRIVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SENDING
ATTENDANT FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION LOCALLY.
WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING, WITH FLOW TURNING
SOUTHERLY AND INCREASING AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD.
SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AND WAA, AND CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER WITH THE ACTIVITY AS SHOWALTER
VALUES FALL JUST BELOW 0. AFTER THIS INITIAL WAVE,, BREAKS IN
STEADY RAIN LIKELY DEVELOP, WITH MORE INTERMITTENT SHOWERS
POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
RISE IN DEW POINTS, CONTINUED TO CARRY FOG FOR COASTAL AREAS
MUCH OF THE DAY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND BECOME MORE GUSTY, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS PROG AN 80 TO 90 KT LLJ DEVELOPING
AT 925 MB. HELPING TO MITIGATE THE CORE OF THESE WINDS FROM
MIXING DOWN HOWEVER IS A STOUT INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE.
EVEN HALF OF THIS THOUGH YIELDS GUSTS ABOVE 40 KT, SO HOISTED
WIND ADVISORY FOR COASTAL AREAS AND S CT FROM 2PM MON THRU 5AM
TUE. S OR SE WINDS SUSTAINED 15 TO 25 MPH, WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50
MPH, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. LOCALIZED GUSTS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST COULD APPROACH OR EXCEED 60 MPH, THOUGH LIKELY ISOLATED
IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS PERSIST IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE A DECAYING
SQUALL LINE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
COLD FRONT. HI RES CAMS INDICATE THE LINE GETS INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, INCLUDING THE NYC METRO, IN THE EVENING
AFTER 6PM. LIMITED ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH STRONG LL SHEAR
WILL COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE IN NE NJ AND PERHAPS
THE LOHUD VALLEY, WHICH ALIGNS WITH WHERE SPC CONTINUES TO PLACE
THE FAR WESTERN EDGES OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT (LEVEL 2) RISK
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, AND A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1) FOR NYC,
WESTERN LI, SW CT, THE LOHUD VALLEY, AND MOST OF NE NJ. THE
PRIMARY THREAT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING
BROUGHT DOWN AS THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVES IN
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE EVENING.
IN ADDITION TO THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY ENOUGH RAINFALL THAT LEADS TO FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO NEAR 1.5
INCHES MONDAY AFTERNOON, OR ABOUT AS HIGH AS OBSERVED IN THE
LOCAL SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. WPC CONTINUES TO PLACE THE ENTIRE
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. QPF AVERAGES
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
2.5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN CT. THE MAIN FLOODING IMPACTS WILL
BE LOW-LYING, URBAN AND OTHER POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WITH
OVERALL MINOR IMPACTS. GIVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS S CT WITH A MOIST FLOW OFF THE SOUND AND OCEAN, OPTED TO
HOIST A FLOOD WATCH HERE IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS.
NUISANCE FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS APPEARS
LIKELY, WITH PERHAPS A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT IF HEAVIER
CELLS END UP TRAINING OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR. SMALLER RIVER AND
STREAMS MAY ALSO APPROACH OR EXCEED THEIR BANKS, BUT A LARGER
AND MORE WIDESPREAD RIVERINE FLOOD THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT MINOR NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING IN URBANIZED AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AT TIMES.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT, ENDING THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS AS THE FLOW VEERS WESTERLY AND COLDER AIR
ADVECTS IN. STILL POSSIBLE THE RAIN COULD TAPER AS A FEW WET
FLAKES IF TIMING LINES UP, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC
METRO. NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED SHOULD IT EVEN OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2
LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH EROSION REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM GIVEN THE EXPECTED MAGNITUDE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED WAVE ACTION.
THE COMBINATION OF LOW ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND 1/2 TO 1 FOOT OF SURGE
WILL LIKELY ONLY BRING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
TO THE VULNERABLE LOCATIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU
AND WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ONLY THE UPPER
END OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE (90TH PERCENTILE OF STEVENS AND SNAP-EX)
IS SHOWING THIS ISOLATED MINOR THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK,
BRINGING A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RUN ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH. GUSTY CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE ON TUESDAY.
THIS COMBINED WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP WIND CHILL
VALUES DOWN IN THE 30S FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
***HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER EVENT OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT***
A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL TO LOWER TO IFR OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS DEVELOP
OUT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THE LATTER OF WHICH LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT AROUND 12Z. LIFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN
DEVELOP THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST WITH A CHANCE OF 1/4SM VISIBILITIES, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE 06-15Z, BUT HAVE BEEN LEFT OUT OF FORECAST DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. THE PROBABILITY OF A THUNDERSTORM
INCREASES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IS INCLUDED IN A
PROB30 FOR ALL TERMINALS AFTER 18Z MONDAY.
ESE-SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT GRADUALLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING, BECOMING 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT, STRONGEST NEAR
THE COAST, AFTER 12Z. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE S INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS INCREASING FURTHER, BECOMING 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS 25-35 KT. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY END UP AT
COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS 35-40 KT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARD
21Z, ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME W WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE FROM ABOUT 03Z TO 07Z. WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WILL ALSO FEATURE G30-40 KT, BEFORE GRADUALLY FALLING
OFF.
LLWS WITH WINDS AT 2KFT 50-60 KT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THE STRONGEST LLWS APPEARS LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN WINDS AT 2KFT MAY BE 60-70 KT, ESPECIALLY AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING OF LOWERING CEILINGS, VISIBILITIES,
AND SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z. ADJUSTMENTS POSSIBLE
TO TIMING OF PROB30 FOR TSRA AFTER 18Z MONDAY.
1/4SM FOG POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, ESPECIALLY AT KJFK IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: IFR/LIFR WITH SHOWERS, POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES.
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. BECOMING VFR FOLLOWING THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM ABOUT 03Z TO 07Z. S WINDS 15-25 KT WITH
GUSTS 25-40 KT, HIGHEST AT THE COAST. PEAK GUSTS UP TO 45 KT
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE EVENING. LLWS. WINDS DECREASE
SLIGHTLY AND BECOME WESTERLY LATE, GUSTS 25-35 KT. SHOWERS
TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY: BECOMING VFR. W GUSTS 25-30 KT.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALE WARNING ON ALL WATERS LATE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE LATE THIS EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT ON ALL WATERS AS GUSTS INCREASE ABOVE 25 KT WITH A
WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE. SCA STARTS ON OCEAN WATERS 6PM THIS
EVENING, WITH NON OCEAN WATERS AT MIDNIGHT. WINDS INCREASE
FURTHER ON MONDAY, WITH GALES EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING ON ALL
WATERS. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 TO 45 KT, WITH OCEAN SEAS 14 TO 18
FT LIKELY. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT, AND COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS TO 50 KT.
STRONGEST OF THE WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTEN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE GALE WARNING SET TO EXPIRE AT 10Z TUE,
THEN SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY LINGER ON ALL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH 25 KT GUSTS, BUT COULD POTENTIALLY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY
ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH LINGERING 5FT SEAS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
THEN EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ005>012.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ006-
104-106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...DR/JT
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DR
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