025
FXUS61 KOKX 201751
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1251 PM EST MON JAN 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH
MID WEEK. THE HIGH THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION FROM THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM PASSES OFFSHORE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT, WEAKENING ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, EXPECT
OCCASIONAL WNW WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE FOR SOME SCT-BKN STRATOCU TO DEVELOP AROUND 5 KFT
AS WELL. HIGH TEMPS FORECAST TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER/MID 20S
THIS AFTERNOON ARE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE CLEARING SKIES TNGT, THEN AN INCREASE IN
HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE TUE. WITH SOME FRESH SNOW COVER
SHAVED A DEGREE OFF THE NBM LOW TEMPS. WINDS PROGGED TO LESSEN
WITH ONLY ABOUT 20KT AT H85, SO THAT WILL BE THE WIND CHILL
LIMITING FACTOR. THE CURRENT FCST DOES NOT REACH COLD WX ADVY
CRITERIA, SO NOTHING ISSUED ATTM. IT WILL STILL BE COLD WITH MIN
APPARENT TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BLW ZERO.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
CONTINUED COLD THRU WED NGT. APPARENT TEMPS THRU THE PERIOD
STILL NOT QUITE AT ADVY CRITERIA. SOME OF THE COLDEST SPOTS
TUE NGT GET TO AROUND ZERO OR SLIGHTLY BLW. TO DO THIS THOUGH
THE WINDS NEED TO GO NEARLY CALM, SO LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
WIND CHILL AND ACTUAL TEMPS. THE NBM WAS FOLLOWED, WITH A FEW
LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS, THRU THE PERIOD. TEMPS STAY BLW FREEZING THE
ENTIRE TIME.
H5 TROF COMES THRU TUE NGT AND IS MODELED TO BE DRY. THE PASSAGE
OF THE TROF APPEARS TO KEEP LOW PRES OFFSHORE FROM IMPACTING
THE AREA ATTM. THE NBM HAS CAPTURED THE SWD TREND AND POPS HAVE
BEEN REDUCED ACROSS THE CWA ACCORDINGLY. HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS
EVENT ARE ACROSS LI AND ONLY IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE. UNLESS THE
UPR TROF SLOWS DOWN OR ACQUIRES MORE OF A NEG TILT, POPS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARDS ZERO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A COLD AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MODERATING, INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
TRACK IS A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST, HOWEVER, WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW. TEMPERATURES FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE
HIGH WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE FURTHER, AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS. A TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND WITH LITTLE MOISTURE A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A MORE ZONAL FLOW FOR THE WEEKEND
WILL ALLOW ANOTHER TROUGH TO AMPLIFY INTO THE NORTHEAST WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING, AND THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
SNOW FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
NW-W FLOW HAS BEEN LESS GUSTY THAN EXPECTED, MOST LIKELY DUE TO
SNOW COVER. COULD BE AN INTERVAL OR TWO OF BKN VFR CIGS DRIFTING
DOWN FROM THE NW INTO EARLY THIS EVENING, OVERALL MAINTAINED SKY
COVER AT SCT FOR THE NYC METROS. WINDS BACK WNW-W AND DIMINISH
TO 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR. W WINDS 10-15G20KT NYC METRO/COASTAL TERMINALS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GUSTY NW FLOW BACKS TO THE WNW THIS AFTN. SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL WATERS WITH SOME LGT FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE. WINDS
MRGNL TNGT ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS, SO THE ADVY WAS NOT EXTENDED
THERE AND ONLY REMAINS ON THE OCEAN. WINDS DIMINISH FURTHER ON
TUE, AND ALL WATERS MIGHT STAY BLW SCA LVLS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY
STILL POSSIBLE. BETTER CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS AND SEAS ARE BLW
SCA LVLS ON WED.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRENGTHENING NW FLOW FRI NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFFSHORE MAY ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS AND SEAS TO BE NEAR SCA
LEVELS ON THE OCEAN E OF MORICHES INLET AND ACROSS THE LONG
ISLAND EASTERN BAYS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ANTICIPATED.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JMC/DW
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
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