319
FXUS61 KOKX 030629
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
229 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OVERALL.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS.
2) DRY NEXT WEEK AND GENERALLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT SHIFTS AWAY INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES DURING SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO APPROACH US. IT
APPEARS THAT IT COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING THE LIKELIHOOD OF
SHOWERS ACROSS LONG ISLAND INTO NYC AND PARTS OF NE NJ WITH CHANCE
POPS FARTHER NORTH MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. RAIN AMOUNTS
LIKELY REMAIN UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH, SO NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
FOR THE MOST PART. ONLY CHANCE OF ANY HEADLINES WOULD BE RELATED TO
A FROST POTENTIAL IN SOME OF THE NORTHERN SUBURBS TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES THERE
FALL INTO THE MID 30S.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BUILDS EAST TODAY,
PASSING TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST
SUNDAY, WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH.
VFR. A SPOTTY SHOWER AND/OR SPRINKLE IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NYC
AND EASTERN TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 08Z.
NNW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT, BUT A BIT WEAKER INLAND, GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE
NNE BY 12Z. EXPECT OCCASIONAL G15-20KT OVERNIGHT AT THE NYC
TERMINALS. GUSTS ARE LIKELY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FROM ABOUT 13Z TO 16Z BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, MORNING GUSTINESS WILL BE MORE
OCCASIONAL. NE WINDS THEN BECOME MORE E IN THE AFTERNOON FOR
SOME OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE
CUTOFF ACROSS THE NYC TERMINALS WITH WINDS VARYING FROM E TO NE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS COULD VARY
BETWEEN NE AND E.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR, WITH E TO NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
SUNDAY: VFR LIKELY IN AM. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF RAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE AT
THE NYC METRO AND COASTAL TERMINALS. ENE WINDS G15-18KT IN THE
MORNING.
MONDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND, HOWEVER
THERE COULD BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS TODAY
AND SUNDAY. THINKING IS THAT WIDESPREAD SCA GUSTS ACROSS ANY OF THE
ZONES WON'T PREVAIL FOR A LONG ENOUGH TIME TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
THERE COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD INSTANCES OF 25KT+ GUSTS ON SUNDAY,
AND WITH AN EASTERLY WINDS, PERHAPS MOST OF EACH OF THE OCEAN ZONES
COULD SEE 5 FT WAVES. BEING IT'S A 3RD PERIOD FORECAST, THERE'S TIME
TO HOLD OFF ON A SCA ISSUANCE AND SEE HOW MODELS TREND.
WHAT APPEARS TO BE A MORE CERTAIN SCA EVENT IS LATE DAY MONDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A DECENT SHOT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION.
BUMPED UP GUSTS DURING THIS PERIOD FROM NBM AS IT OFTEN IS TOO LOW
WITH THE SPREAD BETWEEN SUSTAINED SPEEDS AND GUSTS IN A SETUP SUCH
AS THIS ONE. AFTER POTENTIAL LINGERING GUSTS EARLY TUESDAY, A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT PROMOTES SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC
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