727
FXUS61 KOKX 040230
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1030 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR ALL WATERS MONDAY, CONTINUING
ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
SPS ISSUED FOR ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD FOR MONDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ON
MONDAY.
2) MODERATING TEMPS FOR MONDAY, RISING TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONABLE ON TUESDAY.
3) A SLOW-MOVING, STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO EARLY MONDAY EVENING, THE COMBINATION
OF DRYING FINE FUELS, SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 30
MPH, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25 AND 35 PERCENT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD FOR SOUTHERN CT,
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, NEW YORK CITY AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND.
THIS FORECAST CONSIDERS METEOROLOGICAL, FUEL, AND LAND CONDITIONS
AND HAS BEEN DEVELOPED IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE AND LAND
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SLIDES OFFSHORE MONDAY, WITH ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH AND THEN
OFFSHORE OF THE AREAS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH A DEEP AND GUSTY
SW FLOW ADVECTING IN A PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AREAWIDE (EXCEPT
IMMEDIATE SOUTH-FACING SHORELINES) FOR MONDAY, WITH MID 70S FOR NE
NJ AND ADJACENT NYC METRO. AFTERNOON SEABREEZE OFF THE LOWER 50
DEGREES WATERS WILL LIKELY COOL SOUTH COASTAL AREAS BACK INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
WA SOMEWHAT DISTINCT BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW MAY
BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER THREAT LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AM.
OTHERWISE, 850 HPA TEMPS RISE TO 11 TO 13C ON TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE, SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S
FOR THE INTERIOR ON TUESDAY, WITH MID 80S FOR NE NJ AND ADJACENT NYC
METRO. A MORE BACKED HYBRID S/SW FLOW AND AFTERNOON SEABREEZE OFF
THE LOWER 50 DEGREES WATERS WILL LIKELY KEEP SOUTH AND EAST COASTAL
AREAS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LOW PROB FOR LATE DAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WELL N&W OF NYC, WITH
APPROACH OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE/SURFACE TROUGH IN A MARGINALLY
UNSTABLE AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. CSU-MLP INDICATING A CONDITIONAL
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT, SO THREAT FOR SEVERE IS QUITE LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 3
OVER THE LAST 24 HRS, MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO ONLY PARTIAL
PHASING OF THE CLOSED SW US UPPER LOW WITH BROAD NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL US DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK.
THE RESULT WILL STILL DIG AND DEEPEN A -(2) STD TROUGH INTO THE
CENTRAL US/MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDWEEK, BUT
SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND SHALLOWER THAN 24 HRS PREVIOUS. GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TROUGH GRADUALLY SLIDING TO THE THU INTO FRI
EAST COAST LATE WEEK
AT THE SURFACE, STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM (WITH A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES
ALONG IT) SLIDING TOWARDS THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL
LIKELY BRING PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
WED INTO THU NIGHT.
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE FIRST ROUND ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON, ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM APPROACHING
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER JET AND WEAK SHORTWAVE ENREGY AND
STRENGTHENING LLJ/THETA-E ADVECTION OF +(1-2 STD) PWAT (WEAKLY
UNSTABLE) AIRMASS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE.
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAS
TRENDED LOWER FOR THE THU INTO THU NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEP LAYERED
LIFT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS/PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE.
EARLIER MENTIONED WEAKER/SHALLOWER MID-LEVEL TROUGH TREND, HAS
SHIFTED THE PRIMARY LOW TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND REDUCED
THE GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT UP THE COAST. A TRACK TO THE SOUTH
OF THE REGION, WOULD KEEP HEAVIEST DOWNPOUR AND TSTM ACTIVITY
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS NWP SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE PRIMARY LOW
IS MEANINGFUL, AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE AI GFS/ECMWF
MODELS FOR AT LEAST THE LAST FEW DAYS. ACCORDINGLY, NWP ENSEMBLE
PROBABILITIES OF 1" OF PRECIP IN 24HR HAVE DECREASED TO BELOW
20%. 00Z CSU-MLP EXCESSIVE RAINFALL PROBS HAVE DECREASED AS
WELL.
SINCE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL 4 DAYS AWAY, WITH SW UPPER LOW NOT
COMING ONSHORE TILL TUESDAY AND A COMPLEX NORTHERN STREAM UPPER
LOW INTERACTION OVER HUDSONS BAY, IT BEARS WATCHING FOR A
REVERSAL TREND AND FAVORABLE HEAVY RAIN SYNOPTIC SET-UP. MORE
DETAILS AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WSW-SW WINDS TO START WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT, BECOMING AROUND 10 KT AFTER 06Z, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST. SW WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY,
BECOMING 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT. THE WIND DIRECTION LIKELY
BACKS TO THE SSW IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT, ESPECIALLY AT KJFK AND
KISP. SW-SSW WINDS AND GUSTS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING,
23Z-01Z.
..NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY
ONSET TIMING OF GUSTS MONDAY MORNING MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
THERE IS A CHANCE WINDS AT KJFK BECOME S MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE FOR A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT, MAINLY AT KJFK IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND MVFR, MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF NYC TERMINALS IN THE EVENING AND NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS
NEAR 20-30 KT, STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: SHOWERS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
THURSDAY: SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER, TAPERING OFF IN THE EVENING.
FRIDAY: VFR. W GUSTS 20 KT POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
NEARSHORE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BUT MARGINAL SW SCA
WINDS LIKELY DEVELOP ON ALL WATERS MON AM WITH SCA SEAS LIKELY
DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN WATERS WITH COMBO OF 2 FT E AND SE
SWELLS AND BUILDING S WIND WAVES.
SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN (LIKELY ON NEARSHORE WATERS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL) THRU WEDNESDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING AND PERSISTENT S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL GALES GUSTS ON THE OCEAN TUE
AFT THROUGH WED WITH STRENGTHENING LLJ OVERHEAD.
SCA CONDS COULD CONTINUE THU INTO THU NIGHT, PARTICULARLY ON THE
OCEAN, DEPENDING ON TRACK OF A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...DS/NV
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DS/NV
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