889
FXUS61 KOKX 112002
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
402 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FOLLOWED BY A WEAKENING LINE OF STORMS
THAT WILL ENTER AFTER 9 PM. THE TIMING FOR STORMS ON FRIDAY IS
ALSO TRENDING LATER INTO THE EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WINDOW REMAINS FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE RISK FOR ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY.
2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AND A HEAT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
3) POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
4) THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT
CAPPING IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER HAS ALLOWED FOR THE ATMOSPHERE
TO REMAIN STABLE, DESPITE THE IMPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. SOME
WEAKENING IN THIS CAP FURTHER NORTH HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OUTSIDE OF THE AREA. MEANWHILE, AS SEA
BREEZES BECOME ESTABLISHED THIS AFTERNOON, THIS COULD BE ANOTHER
POSSIBLE SOURCE OF LIFT TO GET A STORM OR TWO TO FORM. CONDITIONS
WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS, IF THEY CAN DEVELOP, AS
DCAPE VALUES OVER 900 J/KG AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER 7C/KM
WOULD SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
MEANWHILE, FURTHER WEST IN OHIO AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BECOME
AN ORGANIZED LINE THAT WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THIS LINE WILL START TO WANE IN INTENSITY TONIGHT, AS IT REACHES
A DIURNALLY STABLE AIR MASS AFTER DARK. THIS DECAYING LINE OF
CONVECTION MAY REACH THE FORECAST AREA BY 9 PM AND WILL
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE NIGHT. AT THIS TIME, NOT EXPECTING ANY
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS WITH THIS LINE, BUT LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
FOR FRIDAY, IT MAY LARGELY BE A REPEAT OF THURSDAY WITH SOME
CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY BUILDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE A MORE POTENT
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND A WEAK SURFACE
COLD FRONT THAT COULD PROVIDE SOME MORE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION
TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, LIKE TODAY, THERE IS A
LAG IN THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND STORMS MAY NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, AS
INSTABILITY WILL WANE ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL DIRECTLY
IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. THEREFORE, HAVE TRENDED DOWN STORM
CHANCES BUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THREAT REMAINS POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION HAVE REACHED THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S.
THESE HOT CONDITIONS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING WITH SOME SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION AND THE LOSS OF
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING.
BEHIND TONIGHT'S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
RETURN NORTH ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW FOR SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO
TODAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE TOWARD THE 20 C MARK,
TRANSLATING TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TOGETHER, THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER
100S ON FRIDAY. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS VALID FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH 8 PM FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN MUTED IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S FOR COASTAL SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND, AND
THESE AREAS WILL STAY OUT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND HOT WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THIS TIME, AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
DO NOT RAISE A CONCERN FOR HEAT HAZARDS.
WHILE IT IS TOO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS, THERE IS AT LEAST
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH QPF OUTPUT ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF INSTABILITY STRETCHING INTO NORTHEAST NJ. THE
SPC HAS OUTLINED NYC AND NORTH AND WEST IN A DAY 4 SLIGHT RISK, WITH
THE CSU-MLP SHOWING A MARGINAL RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 4
WITH THE APPROACH OF A NEW MOON ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL CLIMB
SOME INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR MAINLY THE SOUTHERN BAYS OF QUEENS,
WESTERN LI, AND SW CT MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS MAY BE
APPROACHED FOR THE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THE RELATIVELY HIGHER CHANCE OF MINOR BENCHMARKS BEING MET OR
EXCEEDED IS FOR THE SUNDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE DUE TO SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TIDE LEVELS. COASTAL FLOOD HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN
SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WEAK ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE RESIDES NEAR THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD, HOWEVER MVFR OR LOWER IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WINDOW FOR ANY OF
THIS ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY IN THE 02-06Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE CITY
TERMINALS WITH PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA, HOWEVER FOR EASTERN TERMINALS
LIKE KBDR, AND KISP THERE IS A PROB30 GROUP CURRENTLY UNTIL 22-23Z
THIS EVENING. FOR KGON CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER, THUS A TEMPO GROUP FOR
TSRA IS IN PLACE UNTIL 23Z. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS COULD BECOME SEVERE, AND
WOULD FACILITATE TAF AMENDMENTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
AFTER 06Z WILL HAVE VFR PREVAILING. VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE
DAY FRIDAY, WITH PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA TOWARDS 20-21Z.
SOME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE GUSTS UP TO 20 KT LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THE WINDS THEN GO GENERALLY WESTERLY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WINDS SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS FOR THE CITY TERMINALS,
AND 5 TO 10 KT FOR MOST OUTLYING TERMINALS. W TO SW WINDS TAKE SHAPE
AGAIN WITH SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS FRIDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
AROUND THE OCCURRENCE AND TIMING OF PREVAILING GUSTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE COVERAGE AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING UNTIL 06Z. GUSTS ON FRIDAY MAY
INITIATE SOONER THAN INDICATED IN TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: PRIMARILY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND A PORTION OF THE EVENING WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BE SEVERE
WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.
SATURDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS LIKELY AT
NIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WITH MVFR POSSIBLE
EARLY FOR EASTERN MOST TERMINALS.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
TOWARDS EVENING AND AT NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
LIGHT FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE REAL MARGINAL AND MAINLY FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS, WITH 25 KT GUSTS AND 4-5 FT SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK WITH SW WINDS AROUND
10 KT AND SURF AROUND 3 FT.
ON FRIDAY, A SW FLOW AROUND 10KT AND A 3FT 6S SWELL FROM THE SOUTH
WILL COMBINE TO BRING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR SOUTHERN
NASSAU AND SOUTHERN SUFFOLK. THE RISK FOR NYC BEACHES IS LOW, WITH A
BIT OF A WEAKER SWELL. IT IS MARGINAL OVERALL FOR ALL BEACHES, BUT
RCMOS HELPED LEAN TOWARDS INCREASING THE RISK.
THE RISK LOWERS TO LOW ON SATURDAY WITH A WEST WIND UNDER 10 KT AND
A LINGERING 2 FT SOUTHERLY SWELL.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 11:
KEWR: 96/2000
KBDR: 93/1984
KNYC: 95/1973
KLGA: 96/1984
KJFK: 93/1984
KISP: 93/1973
JUNE 12:
KEWR: 97/2017
KBDR: 93/2017
KNYC: 93/2017
KLGA: 96/2017
KJFK: 92/2017
KISP: 91/2017
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 11:
KEWR: 77/1984
KBDR: 71/2008
KNYC: 78/1984
KLGA: 76/1973
KJFK: 76/1984
KISP: 71/1984
JUNE 12:
KEWR: 74/1973
KBDR: 69/1973
KNYC: 76/2017
KLGA: 76/2017
KJFK: 73/1970
KISP: 70/1973
JUNE 13:
KEWR: 74/2005
KBDR: 71/2017
KNYC: 77/2017
KLGA: 80/2017
KJFK: 72/2017
KISP: 70/1969
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR CTZ005>010.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ009>012.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
CTZ009>012.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NYZ067>075-078-080-
176>179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ZPS/JT
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...ZPS/JT
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