785
FXUS61 KOKX 091115
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
715 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. WENT HIGHER
THAN NBM WITH GUSTS AND LOWER THAN NBM WITH TDS GIVEN DEEP MIXING
EXPECTED TODAY. ADDITIONALLY, BLENDED IN CONSMOS FOR TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. THE COMBINATION OF
THE DRY AIRMASS, LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW THE
USUAL COOL SPOTS TO RADIATE DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO WORK AGAINST THIS, BUT WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON COVERAGE AND THICKNESS. SHOULD HIGH CLOUD
COVER BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN FORECAST, TONIGHT'S LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD END UP A FEW DEGREES WARMER. NO FROST/FREEZE
IS EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT ALONG THE
EASTERN GULF COAST. REFER TO THE LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH
MID-LATITUDE ENERGY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST/POTENTIAL
IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR OUR AREA AND AT THIS TIME NO
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE AND THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A
WIDESPREAD INCH OF RAIN OVER AN 18-24 HOUR PERIOD STARTING SUNDAY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. GIVEN PWATS APPROACHING 2 INCHES AND
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY (DEPENDENT ON TRACK), A WIDESPREAD 1
TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AT
THIS TIME THIS WOULD BE A REASONABLE WORST CASE RAINFALL. WPC
MAINTAINS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR NORTHEAST
NJ, NYC AND LONG ISLAND. MOST LIKELY IMPACTS WOULD BE MINOR
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
S/SE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BRIEFLY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH ALONG THE
COAST. THERE IS A NEW MOON ON SATURDAY AND COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL NEED ABOUT 1 TO 2 FT TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARKS, WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRES BUILDS S OF THE AREA TODAY, THEN INTO THE AREA ON SAT.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
VRB/W WINDS GENERALLY 6 KT OR LESS THIS MRNG, BECOMING 270-290
TRUE AND INCREASING BY LATE MRNG INTO THE AFTN WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20KT. A FEW HIGHER PEAK GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH
QUICKLY AFT 22Z, BECOMING LV OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF GUSTS STARTING-ENDING MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR TODAY.
PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LEFT OF 300 TRUE TODAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: VFR. N WINDS, BECOMING S/SE LATE.
SUNDAY: VFR THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
MVFR/IFR COND DEVELOPING LATE, AND AT NIGHT. INCREASING E/SE WINDS
10-15G20KT IN AFT/EVE.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN SHOWERS EARLY, VFR LIKELY IN AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY, BUT LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 25 KT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON OF OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS, MAINLY FOR THE LI SOUND EAST OF THE CT RIVER, PECONIC AND
GARDINERS BAYS AND THE OCEAN EAST OF MORICHES INLET.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CRITERIA WILL BE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
PASSES THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. OCEAN SEAS DURING THIS PERIOD
COULD BRIEFLY REACH AS HIGH AS 9 TO 11 FT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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