638
FXUS61 KOKX 200840
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
340 AM EST THU FEB 20 2020
SYNOPSIS
WEAK LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THEN AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO CENTRAL NEW
YORK STATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN SLIDES EAST AND OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE LOW PASSING NEARBY ON
TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
SHALLOW MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK TODAY. THE ADDITIONAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INCREASE CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY. BUT
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LESS THAN 0.25 INCHES, THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS VERY DRY WITH NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE AND SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 30S DURING THE DAY
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE DAILY NORMALS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/
TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE EASTERN COASTLINE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST AND
OFFSHORE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. NORTH WINDS FOLLOWING A WEAK COLD FRONT BRING EVEN DRIER
AIR INTO SOUTHERN NEW YORK. DEW POINTS OVERNIGHT FALL INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS. THIS COUPLED WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PERMIT
TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE MID TEENS OVER LONG ISLAND AND LOW
TEENS FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY PROMOTES SUBSIDENCE LOCALLY KEEPING
SOUTHERN NEW YORK CHILLY AND DRY. TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 30S WITH CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING THROUGH
THE DAY TIME HOURS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
DRY WEATHER STARTS OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH
OF THE REGION DOMINATES. EXPECT DRY WEATHER SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND
MOST OF MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AS HIGH RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY MONDAY AS THE NEXT
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. RIGHT NOW,
THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS WEST OF THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARM ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN. THERE
MAY BE A FEW HOURS OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC,
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, HOWEVER NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. THE LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY,
AS IT DOES, IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION, WITH
PRECIPITATION ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, HOWEVER
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO EXACTLY THE STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT
OF THE NEXT LOW. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK JUST
SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND, BUT REMAINING CLOSE ENOUGH FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TO SEE RAIN. AS WITH ANY STORM 7 DAYS OUT, THE EXACT
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF STORM IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.
NW WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. CITY
TERMINALS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15 KTS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH INTO THE MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
OTHERWISE, NW WINDS WILL BACK TO AROUND 310 MAGNETIC INCREASING 10-
15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON EVENTUALLY SHIFTING N/NW BY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
VFR.
MONDAY
CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CAT, MAINLY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
MARINE
WEAK COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PASSES OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AROUND 25-30 KTS. SCA CRITERIA WINDS
SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON.
WAVES SHOULD RANGE 2 TO 4 FEET OFFSHORE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY ACROSS ALL FORECAST WATERS. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
THE WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED.
EQUIPMENT
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) IS STILL
OPERATING AT REDUCED POWER.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST FRIDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BC/DJ
NEAR TERM...DJ
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...CB
MARINE...BC/DJ
HYDROLOGY...BC/DJ
EQUIPMENT...
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