386
FXUS61 KOKX 101830
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
230 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PROBABILITIES INCREASING FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY, BUT ANY IMPACT, IF ANY, APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS
TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING.
2) UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF TODAY WILL
BECOME PLEASANT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
3) A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE, BUT IMPACTS, IF ANY, APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
4) DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED AT OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH
THIS EVENING DUE TO RESIDUAL S/SW SWELLS. A HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8PM. A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK
IS FORECAST FRIDAY WITH RESIDUAL 3 FT SOUTHERLY WIND SWELLS,
AND 1 FT SE SWELL. THE RIP CURRENT RISK BECOMES LOW ON SATURDAY
WITH LITTLE TO NO SWELL AND 2 FT WIND WAVES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
DUE TO A MODEST WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOW 80S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HEAT INDICES NEAR THE COAST COULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH DRY THIS EVENING, BUT THERE MAY
BE A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS AS A WAVE PASSES WELL TO THE
SOUTH. CLOUDS QUICKLY DECREASE FRIDAY MORNING WITH A RETURN TO
LESS HUMID AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS ON
SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA EARLY
FRIDAY WILL GRADUALLY RETREAT BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO UPPER
RIDGING SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALLOWING A SHORTWAVE TO
PASS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST.
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OCCURRING AFTER
MIDNIGHT INTO THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE LEVELS
LOOK TO INCREASE WITH MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL OF PWATS RISING
TO AROUND 2 INCHES. INSTABILITY IS MINIMAL WITH SOME ELEVATED
CAPE DEPICTED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE WARM FRONT IS ALSO
LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH DAY BREAK SUNDAY. IT
IS STILL UNCERTAIN WHETHER THE BOUNDARY LIFTS OVER THE AREA OR
WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH ON SUNDAY.
THERE IS A GOOD ENOUGH SIGNAL AMONG THE GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC,
ENSEMBLES, AND AI MODELS TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO RANGE FROM A HALF TO ONE INCH.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IF ANY HEAVIER RAIN
WERE TO OCCUR. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE BOUNDARY
LIFTING OVER THE AREA AFTER THE LARGER SCALE FORCING MOVES TO
THE EAST, WHICH WOULD LIMIT ANY FURTHER ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL.
THE EVENT IS STILL BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELING, SO SPECIFIC DETAILS ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
OCCURS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN.
IMPACTS APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME TO MINOR URBAN/POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING. A LOCALIZED OCCURRENCE OF FLASH FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE ALOFT ARE TWO LIMITING FACTORS
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. WPC HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, WHICH SUPPORTS A LOCALIZED RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT FOLLOWS SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
AXIS MOVES WELL OFFSHORE EARLIER IN THE DAY, BUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 4
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY TRY TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BY MIDWEEK, BUT STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN US WILL LIKELY PREVENT ANY MOISTURE
RETURN INTO THE AREA. THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS IS DRY THROUGH
NEXT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE TO START
THE WEEK, THEN MAY TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING, WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
ON FRIDAY.
WNW WINDS AROUND OR JUST OVER 10 KT WITH SOME GUSTS 15-20 KT
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY BE MORE SPORADIC THAN FREQUENT. SW
SEA BREEZE SHOULD CONTINUE AT KGON, THEN SHOULD TAKE PLACE AT
KJFK BY 22Z AND KISP AT 00Z, THEN CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, WINDS VEER NW THEN N LESS THAN 10 KT TONIGHT,
BECOMING NW 5-10 KT AFTER ABOUT 14Z FRI.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF SEA BREEZE ONSET AT KJFK SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, AND MAY
REQUIRE UNSCHEDULED AMD ESPECIALLY IF IT APPEARS THAT ONSET
COULD BE EARLIER THAN FCST.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING: VFR. SE WINDS 10-15G20KT AT THE NYC
METRO TERMINALS.
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: MVFR OR IFR COND POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS, TAPERING OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR. SE WINDS 10-15 KT AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SEAS 5-6 FT CONTINUE EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
SHOULD SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING. AN SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT
EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET THROUGH 8PM. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS BELOW SCA LEVELS
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
IN PLACE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...DS
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