201
FXUS61 KOKX 111124
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
724 AM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
12Z AVIATION AFD UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, MAYBE
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. IMPACTS APPEAR TO BE LIMITED SO FAR. NO HEAT
HEADLINES FOR BOTH DAYS.
2) POSSIBLE WIND IMPACTS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY.
3) SCATTERED AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY FOR VULNERABLE
LOCALES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF NASSAU AND QUEENS AND COASTAL
WESTCHESTER AND FAIRFIELD DURING THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE THRU
THURSDAY. GREATEST COVERAGE OF MINOR FLOODING LIKELY DURING THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S, FALLING SHORT OF 2-DAY CRITERIA THRESHOLDS FOR AN
ADVISORY. WITH DEWPOINTS 65-70, IT WILL STILL FELL MUGGY OUTSIDE
HOWEVER.
THUNDERSTORMS BECOME POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WITH
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE LIFT INTERACTING WITH MLCAPES IN THE
RANGE OF MOSTLY 500-1000 J/KG - FOCUSED MORE TOWARDS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE PROGGED SPEED SHEAR WITH A
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW SUGGESTS A STRONG WIND GUST POTENTIAL, BUT
LIKELY NOT TO SEVERE LEVELS. THE SCATTERED NATURE OF STORMS WOULD
SEEM TO LIMIT THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL, BUT CONSIDERING CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE, CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE THIS OUT, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE TYPICALLY MORE SENSITIVE AREAS OF NE NJ.
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON OUR RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE HI-RES CAMS GENERALLY FAVORING SOME RAINFALL WITH
A THUNDERSTORM CHANCE OVER THE AREA. MEANWHILE, MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS KEEP US DRY, BUT CLOSE TO THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A PRECIP
SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO OUR SOUTH.
HAVE NUDGED UP POPS FROM 01Z NBM DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT STILL
CAPPED AT CHANCE. INSTABILITY WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED, SO NO SEVERE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH THIS SO FAR. THAT COULD CHANGE IF GUIDANCE
TRENDS TOWARDS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COMPLICATES THE TIMING OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT/TROUGH THAT COULD PASS THROUGH DURING THURSDAY. CONSENSUS OF
THE 00Z GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND NBM WIND FIELDS SUGGEST AN AFTERNOON TO
EVENING PASSAGE. IF THIS IS THE CASE, THEN CAPE AND SHEAR COULD BE
ENOUGH FOR STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS. CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS WELL AS THE CONFIDENCE IN A FLASH
FLOODING THREAT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING NEW MOON ON
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING DURING THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES TONIGHT THRU
THURSDAY.
THREAT FOR A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
LIKELY DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
NASSAU AND QUEENS AND COASTAL WESTCHESTER AND FAIRFIELD AS ASTRO
TIDES PEAK. LOCALIZED FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR VULNERABLE LOCATIONS
ALONG NY/NJ HARBOR AND TIDALLY AFFECTED NE NJ RIVERS DURING THIS
TIME AS WELL.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TODAY AND THEN GRADUALLY
CROSSES THRU WED AM.
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
EASTERN PA, EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE NYC/NJ
TERMINALS BTWN 13Z AND 15Z. LATE THIS AFT/EVE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE FROM THE NYC METRO ON WEST. HAVE
INCLUDED AS A PROB30, ALTHOUGH PROBABILITY MAY BE CLOSER TO A
PROB20. A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHRA, EMBEDDED TSRA TONIGHT INTO
WED AM WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LIGHT W-SW WINDS (LEFT OF 300 TRUE) GRADUALLY VEER TO THE WNW-
NW (RIGHT OF 300 TRUE) THRU THE MORNING PUSH MORNING BEFORE
BACKING TO THE W-SW IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 8-12
KT. LIGHT NW/VRB WINDS LATE THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS IN THE TAF MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
SSW SEABREEZE POSSIBLE AT KJFK BTWN 20Z AND 00Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFT/EVE. CONTINUED CHANCE
OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED TSRA W/ MVFR OR LOWER CONDS TONIGHT THRU
WED AM PUSH.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRA W/ EMBEDDED TSRA WED
AM, WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE. DRY WITH VFR LIKELY IN
THE AFTERNOON. N/NW WINDS, GIVING WAY TO LATE AFTERNOON SOUTH
COASTAL SEABREEZES.
THURSDAY: VFR, OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT FRIDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS PICK UP OUT OF THE NW ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND GUSTS MAY COME CLOSE TO 25KT.
RIP CURRENTS: 1-2 FT SE ONSHORE SWELL AND S/SW WIND WAVE THIS WEEK,
WITH WEAK SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE RIP RISK LOW
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONE CAVEAT, APPROACH OF NEW MOON WILL
INCREASE THE TIDAL RANGE, AND COULD INCREASE RIP RISK TO
MODERATE PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE EACH
AFTERNOON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JC
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