245
FXUS61 KOKX 292011
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 PM EDT WED MAR 29 2023
SYNOPSIS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN THURSDAY, REMAINING IN
CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY, SENDING A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY
AND THEN OFFSHORE TO START THE WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT AREA LATE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE AREA AND WILL
BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE, ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND DRAGS
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, A BRISK
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND STRONG FORCING WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF IT. THIS CONVECTIVE LINE/SNOW
SQUALL WILL LIKELY BE STRONGEST IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL NY. THE
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. ONCE IT
GETS A BIT FARTHER EAST, A MORE ORGANIZED LINE SHOULD START TO
DEVELOP. CAMS CONTINUE TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH OUR AREA AROUND 03Z TONIGHT AND EXIT BY 08Z.
GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY BY THE TIME THE FRONT GETS HERE,
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT. HOWEVER,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS SEE BRIEF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. AS FOR PRECIP TYPE, SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING EVERYWHERE INITIALLY, BUT
DRIER AIR AT THE SURFACE IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY COOL AS IT
SATURATES WITH THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION AND IT MAY ALLOW A
MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO WET SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTERIOR CT AS TEMPERATURES QUICKLY TUMBLE INTO THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 30S. ELSEWHERE, ONLY PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED.
ACCUMULATIONS OF ONLY UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE
WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW, IF ANY, OCCURS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED TO GRASSY AND UNTREATED SURFACES.
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, UP TO 35
MPH. BEHIND THE FRONT A GUSTY NW FLOW SETS UP, ADVECTING IN
COLDER AND DRIER AIR. THIS SHOULD HELP DRY OUT ANY WET SURFACES
FROM THE SNOW AND RAIN. LOWS REACH THE MID 20S TO UPPER 30S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
BY THURSDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING, BUT REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY, SLOWLY DECREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WITH THE COLD,
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID
40S. THE GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAKE IT FEEL A FEW DEGREES COOLER.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR DURING THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND THE DRY AIRMASS OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE INTERIOR AND LI PINE BARRENS LIKELY FALL TO
THE LOWER 20S. HOWEVER, WITH OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST,
WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTHERLY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. HIGH CLOUDS ALSO
APPROACH IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT
AND CLOUDS WILL IMPACT HOW LOW TEMPERATURES CAN GET.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN AND SURFACE FEATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
THE TARGET OF OPPORTUNITY REMAINS THE WIND FORECAST LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM.
A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY WILL SEND A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THEN
ACROSS EASTERN CANADA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA DURING THIS TIME, WITH OVERRUNNING RAIN
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND THEN
SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
NYC/NJ METRO IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHERE THERE WILL BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER THE INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME THE SHEAR AND WORK IN TANDEM. CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND AWAY FROM ANY MARINE INFLUENCE, THERE ARE STILL SIGNALS
FOR SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE.
THE WARM SECTOR SATURDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE GUSTY SW WINDS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH. IT'S ALWAYS TRICKY AT THIS
TIME OF YEAR AS TO HOW MUCH OF THE LLJ MIXES DOWN AT THE COAST WITH
A STRONG ONSHORE FLOW AND MARINE LAYER IN PLACE. 925 MB WINDS
CURRENTLY PROGGED AT 55-70 KT OVER EASTERN LI AND SE CT AT TIMES
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE UNDER AN
INCH AT THIS TIME.
COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION AND GUSTY W-NW WINDS. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY COMES TO AN END
EARLY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT AND OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING PUSH. COLD FROPA WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NW WITH G30KT THROUGHOUT, ALSO
SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER COND. KSWF/KGON MOST LIKELY TO GO
COULD GO BRIEFLY IFR.
WINDS AFTER FROPA NW 15-20G25KT AT THE METROS AND 10-15G20KT
INLAND.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
KEWR/KTEB HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW AS OF 20Z, BUT SHOULD TAKE MORE
OF A SE-S DIRECTION THIS EVENING, AFTER 22Z.
KLGA LIGHT S FLOW SHOULD PICK UP NY 21Z.
...OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. NW WINDS G20KT.
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN AT NIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER COND. S WINDS G15-20 KT,
BECOMING MORE SW AT NIGHT AND INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KT. LLWS
POSSIBLE LATE FROM KJFK/KLGA TO POINTS EAST.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN IN THE MORNING. CHANCES FOR
MVFR AND RAINFALL LOWER AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. VFR
FORECAST THEREAFTER. SW WINDS G25-30KT AM, INCREASING TO 30-35KT
PM WITH LLWS FROM KJFK/KLGA TO POINTS EAST. W-NW WINDS G30KT AT
NIGHT.
SUNDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G25-30 KT IN THE MORNING, DIMINISHING
CLOSER TO 20 KT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY: VFR. S WINDS 15G20-25KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT
AND INCREASE. GUSTS 25 - 30 KT ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH 10 AM
THURSDAY MORNING. WAVES ON THE OCEAN WATERS MAY BRIEFLY REACH 5 FT
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER AND WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISH. SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 10 AM THURSDAY
AND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM WILL
THEN BRING A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCA CONDITIONS OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. GALES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY,
ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
A NW GALE IS THEN POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AND SEAS THROUGH THE DAY.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JT/DW
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JT/DW
HYDROLOGY...JT/DW
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