178
FXUS61 KOKX 142006
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
406 PM EDT SUN JUN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE TIMING OF POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE AREA
IS NOW LATER THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
2) THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES FOR ALL AREA OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
3) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST FOR THE
EVENING/NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
4) A ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATER THIS
WEEK WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
BROAD ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS A CLOSED UPPER LOW HEADS EAST OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. AN ATTENDANT SFC LOW WAS ANALYZED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH
EASTERN OH AND INTO KY/TX. A WEAK SFC TROUGH WAS ALSO LOCATED
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PA AS OF ABOUT 15Z. BOTH
OF THESE FEATURES WILL HEAD EAST OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS ALONG
WITH A AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW.
THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THIS EVENING. AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DESTABILIZE THIS MORNING. REGIONAL 12Z
RAOBS (OKX/PBZ) DO SHOW CAPPING IN PLACE WITH A MID LEVEL WARM
LAYER OVER THE REGION. SPC MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS A GOOD AMOUNT
OF CIN STILL IN PLACE AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INTO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING DO DEPICT BULK SHEAR VALUES OF
30-40KTS AS THE BETTER SYNOPTIC FORCING ARRIVES, WHICH SHOULD
PROMOTE STORM ORGANIZATION. CAMS (HRRR/RRFS/HREF MEMBERS) HAVE
SOMEWHAT CONVERGED ON A LATER TIMING FOR THE INITIATION OVER THE
PAST FEW CYCLES IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
WESTERN PA/NY AND BRING THE ACTIVITY INTO THE LOCAL AREA AFTER
00Z. THE CAMS ARE NOW NOT DEVELOPING MUCH OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
FRONT WITH THE NEWER GUIDANCE. THUS, THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT ANY PRECIPITATION/THUNDER WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE THE COLD FRONT AND OCCUR AFTER 00Z FOR THE LOCAL AREA.
THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH, WHICH WOULD BRING STORMS THROUGH THE AREA
EARLIER BUT AFOREMENTIONED CIN SEEMS TO KEEP THIS IN CHECK. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS, ESPECIALLY EARLY ON, GIVEN
DCAPE VALUES NEAR 800-1000J/KG. IN ADDITION, WITH PROGGED PWAT
VALUES OVER 1.5" (NEAR THE THE PERCENTILE FOR THE DAY PER SPC
CLIMO), CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT
ESPECIALLY IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR, BUT CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS LOW.
THE SEVERE THREAT DOES APPEAR TO DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS IN PLACE FOR ALL OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING. FOR THE MORE EASTERN OCEAN BEACHES THE
RISK MAY BE MORE ON A MODERATE SCALE INITIALLY, BUT BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON A S WIND INCREASING SHOULD PRODUCE STRONG RIP
CURRENTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 15 TO 20 KT
FOR WESTERN BEACHES, AND MORE LIKE 10 TO 15 KT OUT EAST LATE IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON. SURF HEIGHTS LOOK TO PEAK AT AROUND 3 TO 4
FT ALONG WITH A LINGERING 6 TO 8 SECOND SWELL COMPONENT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST. THE RISK SHOULD FALL TO A MODERATE LEVEL GOING
INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE RISK OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONTINUES FOR TONIGHT, AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE GAUGES OVERALL THAT
REACH MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS TONIGHT, COMPARED TO MONDAY NIGHT.
THUS, ONLY THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TOUCH
MONDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE ADVISORIES CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING COASTAL
ZONES; FAIRFIELD CT, NE NJ, STATEN ISLAND, AND THE WESTERN SOUTH
SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU AS SOME TIDE LEVELS GET UP TO A HALF FOOT ABOVE
MINOR THRESHOLDS FOR THE MORE SENSITIVE LOCATIONS. A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ADDED FOR COASTAL QUEENS FOR THIS EVENING'S HIGH
TIDE, OTHERWISE ALL PREVIOUS HEADLINES / STATEMENTS FOR TONIGHT
REMAIN IN PLACE.
WITH TIDES BEING ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH AND SIMILAR TIDE LEVELS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE MORE
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU, FAIRFIELD
CT, AND POTENTIALLY LOWER PORTIONS OF NE NJ, THUS COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE IS CONTINUING TO POINT TO LINGERING MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. HOWEVER GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
SLIGHTLY OVER DONE AT THIS TIME PAST MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 4
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER THE CENTER OF THE
COUNTRY AND APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK, POSSIBLY
IMPACTING THE AREA AROUND THURSDAY. SPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE AREA
IN A DAY 5 15 % CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER. DETAILS REGARDING
THIS POSSIBLE SYSTEM WILL COME INTO FOCUS IN THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST INTO THIS EVENING, PASSING
THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON AT MAINLY 10-15KT,
WITH MOST TERMINALS G20-25KT BY AFTERNOON, WITH KJFK HAVING
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT AT TIMES. PREVAILING GUSTS LIKELY DO
NOT OCCUR AT KBDR AND KGON AS THEY DON'T LOOK TO MIX DEEP ENOUGH FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS. KJFK MAY SEE GUSTS UP TO 30KT OR AT LEAST A HIGH
SUSTAINED WIND IN THE AFTERNOON CLOSE TO AROUND 20 KT DUE TO A
COASTAL / AMBROSE JET THAT FORMS. WIND GUSTS WILL BE SLOW TO
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH SOME MIXING EXPECTED AHEAD OF
CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE W/WSW OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY NW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS DAYBREAK MONDAY.
THERE COULD BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SW LLWS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT. BEST CHANCE RELATIVELY SPEAKING WILL BE AT THE
EASTERN TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE REMAINS LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP OUT OF THE TAFS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW, THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN 00Z-06Z
FOR THE NYC AND LOWER HUDSON VALLEY TERMINALS AND BIT LATER TO THE
EAST. THERE STILL REMAINS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS (19-22Z). WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR WITH AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR ANY LATE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION. IN ADDITION, WHILE THE CONVECTIVE MODELS DO VARY IN
INTENSITY WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER IN THE
EVENING, SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS IT APPROACHES THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN OFF THE
OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT, LIKELY IMPACTING KISP, KBDR, AND KGON TOWARDS
06Z AND UP UNTIL 10-11Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THAN FREQUENT THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY AT KJFK.
PEAK GUSTS TO NEAR 30KT POSSIBLE.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE 20-0Z TIME FRAME FOR ANY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO, AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO FINE TUNE TIMING OF 02-
06Z TSRA TEMPO GROUPS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH A CHANCE OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS IN
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR, WITH A CHANCES OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS
INCREASING TOWARDS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY: SUB VFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR WITH W WINDS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ON ALL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS AND 4-5FT WAVES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN SUBSIDE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH ALL ZONES
LIKELY RETURNING TO SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS BY 6 AM MONDAY.
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 20 KT, MORE SO FOR THE WESTERN OCEAN SO
A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, HOWEVER MAINLY SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THURSDAY MAY
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND WAVES.
RIP CURRENTS: AFTER A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, THE RISK GOES TO A MODERATE LEVEL FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A LINGERING 2 TO 3 FT LIGHT SOUTHERLY SWELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ074-
179.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ006-
106-108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ331-332-340-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ335-338-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
DISCUSSION...DBR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DBR
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page