884
FXUS61 KOKX 201947
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
347 PM EDT SAT JUN 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXPANDED ACROSS THE AREA FOR
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
2) LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
3) THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. SOME COULD BE SEVERE ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT DETAILS ARE LOW AT THIS TIME.
4) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SHOULD SPARK A FEW
AFTERNOON SHWRS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. INSTABILITY
IS RELATIVELY LOW - BELOW 1000 J/KG, AND STORM MOTION IS MODELED
TO BE AROUND 10KT. AS A RESULT, THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ISOLD LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN HIGH
BASED STORMS. MAIN THREAT AREA IS CT INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY
CLOSEST TO THE UPPER SUPPORT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE MODELING REMAINS CONSISTENT THAT LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK
TOWARDS THE AREA ON MON AND PRODUCE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA INTO MON NIGHT. TIMING PLACES
THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE LATE AFTN INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT A SWATH OF PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
WILL SET UP SOMEWHERE IN THE REGION. EXACT PLACEMENT OF THIS
ZONE OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE, BUT THESE
AREAS USUALLY PREFER TO SET UP FROM CT INTO NJ, WHICH IS CLOSER
TO THE NAM. THE NAM INDICATES MAX PWATS AROUND 2.5 INCHES. AS A
RESULT, HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF CLOSE TO 2 INCHES/HR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
THE SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN EXPANDED INTO
THE REGION FOR THE FLOOD THREAT. THIS IS REASONABLE NOW THAT THE
FLASH FLOOD RISK HAS INCREASED.
THE OVERALL RAINFALL FORECAST REMAINS 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE WARM SECTOR LOOKS TO ENCROACH ON THE AREA MON AFTERNOON AS
INITIAL CONVECTION STARTS DEVELOPING. IT IS ALONG AND NEAR THIS
CAPE GRADIENT THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WILL BE. STILL
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, AS THIS AREA MAY ONLY GET UP TO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NJ. THE 18Z NAM HAS THIS AREA ONE ROW OF
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE OKX CWA. WHERE STORMS DO SET UP, THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE WIND AND ISOLD TORS WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE IS LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT
SPC HAS NONETHELESS TRENDED THE AREA UP WITH THE SWRN THIRD NOW
IN A MARGINAL RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 4
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO SET UP BY LATE THU INTO FRI. THIS
WOULD HELP TO TRIGGER SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA FAVORED. LONG ISLAND INTO
COASTAL CT COULD REMAIN DRY THRU THE PERIOD, WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY FROM NJ INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THE 12Z RUNS OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME IN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, SO CONFIDENCE
IN THE OVERALL TIMING OF THE PATTERN IS INCREASING. IN THIS
SETUP HOWEVER, THE HEAVIEST RAIN COULD END UP WEST OF THE CWA
BUT THAT IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN DETAIL THIS FAR OUT.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY, WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERING NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR. BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THUNDER CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT. HAVE ADDED PROB30 WITH MVFR
-SHRA.
WNW-NW WINDS 15-20KT WITH GUSTS 25-29KT CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED GUST A FEW KT HIGHER CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND PICK BACK UP OUT OF THE W/WNW
ON SUNDAY, BUT A BIT WEAKER. ISOLATED 20 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.
SEA BREEZE LOOKS LIKELY AT KJFK, KISP, KBDR AND KGON, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH FARTHER INLAND IT GETS.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS 30-33KT REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE
LIKELY SAW THE HIGHEST GUSTS OF THE DAY EARLIER THIS MORNING.
WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH/LEFT OF 310 MAGNETIC THROUGH THE DAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD BRIEFLY BRING MVFR CONDITIONS. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. POTENTIAL MVFR IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. S-SE GUSTS 20-30 KT DURING THE DAYTIME, STRONGEST
NEAR THE COAST.
TUESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY, THEN
IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BLW SCA LEVELS EARLY THIS EVE.
THE ADVY HAS BEEN UNCHANGED AND WILL EXPIRE AT 6PM. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BE BLW SCA LEVELS ON SUN, THEN RAMP UP ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN LATE MON AND MON NIGHT. WAVES SUBSIDE ON TUE, WITH
HIGH PRES LIKELY KEEPING THINGS BLW SCA LEVELS WED AND THU.
RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY AT OCEAN BEACHES
WITH S SWELLS 2-3 FT AT 8 SECONDS.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW ON SUNDAY WITH
SUBSIDING S SWELLS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JMC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JMC
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