190
FXUS61 KOKX 171204
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
704 AM EST MON NOV 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY THIS WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LOCALLY FROM THE MIDWEST. A WEAK LOW
PASSES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY, BEFORE EXITING
OFFSHORE LATE WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY FLATTENS AND WORKS OFFSHORE TODAY AS
STACKED LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED BETWEEN THE EXITING SUB 980
MB SURFACE LOW AND THE BUILDING HIGH TO THE WEST. GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE COLD POOL ALOFT,
RESULT IS ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY. GUSTS LOWER SLIGHTLY OVERALL
FROM SUNDAY WITH A BIT WEAKER FLOW IN THE MIXED LAYER, BUT STILL
ANTICIPATING FREQUENT GUSTS 30 TO 35 MPH, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN
THE DAY, WITH A FEW GUSTS TOWARD AND ABOVE 40 MPH. THIS THINKING
ALIGNS WITH THE 00Z HREF, WHICH SUGGESTS PEAK GUSTS APPROACH OR
TOP 40 MPH FOR COASTAL AREAS, AS WELL AS SOME ELEVATED AREAS
LIKE THE HUDSON AND RAMAPO HIGHLANDS. WINDS BEGIN TO COME DOWN
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND LIGHTEN FURTHER AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF
DIURNAL HEATING. FREQUENT GUSTS LIKELY DIMINISH FOR MOST BY
MIDNIGHT.
THE CORE OF THE COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN TODAY, AND SETS UP
LIKELY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS PROGGED IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST, OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR MID
NOVEMBER. COUPLED WITH THE WIND, IT'LL LIKELY FEEL MORE LIKE
THE 30S MUCH OF THE DAY.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A HEALTHY STRATOCU DECK THROUGH THE DAY, BUT CONDITIONS
LARGELY, IF NOT ENTIRELY, REMAIN DRY. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF A STRAY
AFTERNOON FLURRY MAKING IT INTO THE LOHUD VALLEY, BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE FAR LESS THAN SEEN ON SUNDAY, AND NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION INTO MIDWEEK.
LIGHTER FLOW ON TUESDAY WITH THE NEARBY SURFACE HIGH. MUCH MORE
IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE AS WELL, THOUGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN
COOLER THAN NORMAL; HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
SLIDING EAST IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW PASSING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT
THE PRECIP SHIELD POTENTIALLY GRAZING THE LOCAL AREA. DEPENDING
ON THE SOLUTION, TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FROZEN
PRECIP, MAINLY N AND W OF NYC. CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW HOWEVER,
AND IMPACTS LIKELY MINIMAL.
THE SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE REASSERTS
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING
UPWARD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
KEY POINT:
* MAINLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
BLOCKING OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BREAKS DOWN EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH A MID LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
BRANCHES OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED AT THE END OF
THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO OFFER VARYING SOLUTIONS, AND WILL LIKELY
SEE CHANGES IN TIMING AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO
THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER FLOW AND THE FACT THAT MUCH OF THIS
ENERGY IS STILL OFFSHORE IN THE PACIFIC. AS OF THIS UPDATE, THE
FORECAST HAS INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, WITH CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST. LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL LINGER
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR A CONSENUS
FORECAST, WHICH IS WEIGHING IN MANY DIFFERENT MODEL SOLUTIONS.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY.
WNW WINDS 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS THEN DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT SHOULD STILL BE GUSTING
20-25KT THROUGH ABOUT 03Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF GUST 35-40 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT: VFR. WNW WINDS G15-20KT.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR. W-WNW WINDS G15-20 KT. GUSTS DIMINISH
AT NIGHT. CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE AT NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN/MVFR
FOR SOME TERMINALS FOR EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND MVFR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES IN RAIN. S WINDS G15-20KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS 35 TO 40 KT.
SPEEDS BEGIN TO LOWER BY EARLY AFTERNOON ON NON OCEAN WATERS,
THOUGH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING. ON THE OCEAN, GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
EVENING, THEN SCA CONDS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.
SEAS TODAY RANGE FROM 6 TO 10 FT ON THE OCEAN, AND 4 TO 6 FT ON
CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. OCEAN SEAS LIKELY FALL BELOW
5 FT BY TUE MORNING, AND CONDITIONS THEN REMAIN BELOW SCA
LEVELS THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY.
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM AND A STRENGTHENING S FLOW ON FRI
MAY BRING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...DR/DW
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...DR
HYDROLOGY...DR
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