662
FXUS61 KOKX 231537
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 AM EST SAT JAN 23 2021
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY WEAKENS OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS
WEEKEND, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE
HIGH WEAKENS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. THE LOW PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANOTHER LOW MAY MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
THE MAIN CHANGE THIS UPDATE WAS TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
CLOUD COVER TODAY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND
LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THIS WEEKEND, WILL RESULT IN A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING, GUSTING 30-35 MPH.
SKIES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE DAY SAVE
FOR ANY MIDLEVEL STRATOCUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT ADVECTS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO GET
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE UPPER
TEENS TODAY UNDER THE BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN STORE. LOW TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD, IN THE LOW TEENS TO NEAR 20
ACROSS NYC AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND, UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WINDS
SHOULD STAY UP INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY TEMPER LOWS A BIT.
WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE LOW TEENS. FOR NOW
WENT WITH NBM TEMPERATURES, AND ADJUSTED TOWARD LOWER MOS
VALUES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SW CT.
THE GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO THE DAY
ON SUNDAY, THOUGH LESS SO THAN ON SATURDAY, 20-25 MPH AND FINALLY
BEGINNING TO TAPER BY SUNDAY EVENING. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S, CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH NEAR
ZONAL FLOW. A SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE RIDGE THROUGH MONDAY,
REACHING THE OHIO VALLEY BY 00Z TUESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA DURING TUESDAY. GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER
CONSENSUS WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THE TRACK AND
DEPTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. THERE STILL IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE TRACK AND HOW THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN
STREAM BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR A MORE
NORTHERN TRACK. AT THIS TIME THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN COLD ENOUGH
FOR AN ALL LIGHT SNOW EVENT. HOWEVER, IF THE NORTHERN STREAM IS
WEAKER THE STORM MAY TRACK FARTHER NORTH AND MIXING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST. AND IF THE BLOCKING REMAINS IN PLACE
WITH A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM, THE LOW WILL TRACK FARTHER TO
THE SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS MONDAY EVENING
AND CONTINUES INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING, WITH A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. ANOTHER LOW DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY TUESDAY, AND WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
MOVES QUICKLY EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. AGAIN, ON THE CURRENT
TRACK THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER IMPACTS WILL BE ACROSS AREAS
NORTH AND WEST, WITH LOWER IMPACTS TO AREAS EAST OF NEW YORK
CITY, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT, AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE NORTH.
HIGH PRESSURE AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.
THEN ANOTHER SOUTHERN SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE RIDGE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
SURFACE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEN HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WHILE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
THIS WILL SET UP A STEEP PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GUSTY NW WINDS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NW WINDS WILL BE 15-20 KT THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS REACHING NEAR
25-30 KT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PEAK GUSTS
BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. GUSTS WILL LOWER TO MORE WITHIN THE 20-25 KT
RANGE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE GUSTS WILL PERSIST
INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF 30 KT GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A FEW HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY
VFR. WNW GUSTS 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY, NEAR 20KT FOR
SUNDAY EVENING, GRADUALLY DIMINISHING LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY
MAINLY VFR, BUT MVFR/IFR DEVELOPING BY MONDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW. NW-N UNDER 10 KT.
TUESDAY
IFR, AT TIMES POSSIBLY LOWER, IN SNOW, MAINLY DURING THE
DAY, WITH NE WINDS 10-12 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR 20 KT. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AT NIGHT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING.
WEDNESDAY
VFR. N WINDS 5-10 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL WITH STRONG NW FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
GALES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS, THE EASTERN SOUND
AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS TODAY INTO SUNDAY. ELSEWHERE, SCA
ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT
FREEZING SPRAY ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND WESTERN LI SOUND FOR
A PERIOD LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF SUBFREEZING AIR TEMPERATURES, STRONG WINDS AND
WAVE ACTION OVER THESE AREAS. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY
MITIGATE THIS TO BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE ACROSS THE WATERS.
WINDS AND OCEAN SEAS WILL BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING BELOW SCA LEVELS
BY MONDAY MORNING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. OCEAN SEAS 5
TO 6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH
MARGINAL WIND GUSTS, AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN
WATERS THURSDAY AS WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH A LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ335-338-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ330-340-350-353-355.
UPDATE...DW
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