082
FXUS61 KOKX 222036
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
336 PM EST FRI FEB 22 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DEEP LOW
PASSING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WILL PRODUCE
UNSETTLED WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. A LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
STRONG UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN
STATES TONIGHT AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE STREAM ACROSS THE REGION WITH A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT. THE REGION ALSO LIES NEAR THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 140-160 KT JET TO OUR NORTHEAST. MODEL
PROFILES INDICATE THERE COULD BE SOME THINNING OF THE CIRRUS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT LATE TONIGHT, BUT OVERALL MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE A BIT TRICKY DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, BUT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S INLAND TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S
ELSEWHERE ARE FORECAST. IF THE HIGH CLOUDS END UP THICKER, THEN
THESE LOWS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED A FEW DEGREES.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY
WAS TO REMOVE POPS. DPROG/DT ON THE MODELS INDICATES A SLOWER TREND
WITH THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION AND A APPROACHING WARM FRONT FROM THE
SOUTH WILL DEVELOP PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST
TREND CONTINUES TO BE FOR A SLOWER ONSET TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
FROZEN PRECIP. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
RISE WELL ABOVE 0C THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH 850 MB TEMPS PROGGED TO
BE NEAR +10C EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SURFACE TEMPERATURES COULD START
OUT NEAR FREEZING ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. IT IS HERE WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN AT THE ONSET IS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, THIS EVENT
WILL BE IN THE FORM OF PLAIN RAIN.
RAIN CONTINUES SUNDAY MORNING AND IT COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT QUICKLY LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH
RAIN ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDDAY. THE WARM FRONT WILL TRY
TO PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA, BUT MAY NOT COMPLETELY DO SO.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOW 50S SOUTH AND MIDDLE TO
UPPER 40S INLAND. IF THE WARM FRONT DOES LIFT NORTH, THEN
TEMPERATURES COULD END UP A BIT HIGHER IN THE AFTERNOON. A TRAILING
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SHOWER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS FRONT, SO POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED IN
THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE RANGE. ANY STRONG WINDS LOOK TO HOLD OFF
UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT, BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT, WINDS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT REACHING WIND ADV CRITERIA AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. WINDS WILL LESSEN MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. A WEEK SYSTEM MIGHT
IMPACT THE ARE ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY, BRINGING DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN
BOUNCE BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, THEN MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
VFR.
NW-N WINDS AROUND 10 KT DIMINISH AROUND 22Z, AND GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE NORTHERNLY. WINDS WILL VEER TO N THIS EVENING, THEN NE
OVERNIGHT. AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING WINDS WILL BECOME E, THEN SE
DURING THE AFTERNOON, LESS THAN 10 KT.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS, CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS.
KISP TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON
VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
IFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN DEVELOPING.
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET AT KSWF.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
VFR. MONDAY W-NW WINDS 15-25KT G35-45KT.
ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY
VFR.
WEDNESDAY
MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS. WINDS AND SEAS BUILD SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT STORM SYSTEM. A WARM FRONT LIFTS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY
MORNING AND WINDS ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ARE LIKELY TO REACH 25
TO 30 KT. OCEAN SEAS SHOULD ALSO BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FT. SCA
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT.
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. GALES WILL BE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH STORM
FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO ISSUE ANY
HEADLINES, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE HWO.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT, FALLING BELOW SCA LEVELS BY
LATE TUESDAY. SEAS AND WINDS REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING BACK TO SCA LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
AROUND 1-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME MINOR URBAN OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE, NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
CLIMATE
THIS HAS BEEN A TOUGH WINTER IN THE TRI-STATE AREA OVERALL TO
RETAIN COLD AIR LONG ENOUGH WHEN PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN. MOST
OF OUR EVENTS THIS WINTER HAVE BEEN OVERRUNNING SET-UPS THAT
HAVE SEEN THE COLD AIR LARGELY RETREAT JUST BEFORE OR SHORTLY
AFTER THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT, WE'VE SEEN BELOW
NORMAL SNOW AT ALL OF OUR CLIMATE STATIONS FOR THE SNOW SEASON
TO DATE AND ESPECIALLY FOR METEOROLOGICAL WINTER.
FOR CENTRAL PARK, THE SEASONAL TOTAL AS OF TODAY STANDS AT 10.0
INCHES WHICH IS 9.2 INCHES BELOW NORMAL AND RANKS AS THE 31ST
LEAST SNOWIEST SEASON TO DATE BASED ON RECORDS BACK TO 1869.
HOWEVER, 6.4 INCHES OF THIS FELL DURING THE NOVEMBER 15TH STORM.
THE TOTAL FOR METEOROLOGICAL WINTER (THE MONTHS OF DECEMBER,
JANUARY AND FEBRUARY) IS JUST 3.6 INCHES WHICH IF WE GET NO MORE
MEASURABLE SNOW THIS MONTH WOULD FINISH AS THE 7TH LEAST
SNOWIEST SUCH PERIOD ON RECORD DATING BACK TO 1869. THERE IS
STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW BEFORE THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY
CLOSES OUT SO THIS RANKING IS NOT FINAL.
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE AREA THIS DECEMBER AND JANUARY RANKED AS
THE SECOND LEAST SNOWIEST SUCH PERIOD AT LAGUARDIA BACK TO 1940
WITH 0.6 INCH (ONLY EXCEEDED BY 1994-1995 WITH 0.3 INCH) AND AT
ISLIP BACK TO 1963 WITH 0.9 INCH (ONLY EXCEEDED BY A TRACE IN
1994-1995). 1994-1995 WAS A WINTER LARGELY MARKED BY ONE MAJOR
SNOWSTORM IN EARLY FEBRUARY THAT ACCOUNTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THAT SEASON'S SNOW.
MARCH IN THIS PART OF THE WORLD AND EVEN A HANDFUL OF APRILS
HAVE HAD THEIR SHARE OF NOTABLE SNOWS SO WINTER - OR AT LEAST
THE SNOW SEASON - IS NOT OVER YET. SOME MAY REMEMBER THE WINTER
OF 1997-1998 WHEN THE SEASONAL SNOW TOTAL STOOD AT 0.5 INCH
UNTIL LATE MARCH IN CENTRAL PARK WHEN THE LATEST INCH OR MORE
EVENT EVER TOOK PLACE ON THE 22ND DEPOSITING 5.0 INCHES.
IRONICALLY 5 DAYS LATER HIGHS SOARED INTO THE 80S AND MANY TREES
STARTED TO SPROUT THEIR LEAVES FOR THE SPRING MARKING ONE OF
THE EARLIEST LEAF SPROUTINGS IN THIS AREA IN MEMORY.
EQUIPMENT
NYC CENTRAL PARK WINDS ARE OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
LOSS OF DATA IS DUE TO A SEVERED CABLE. PARTS ARE ON ORDER.
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) WILL REMAIN OFF
THE AIR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FIG/DS
NEAR TERM...DS
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...FIG
AVIATION...19
MARINE...FIG/DS
HYDROLOGY...FIG/DS
CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...
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