100
FXUS61 KOKX 121135
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
735 AM EDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
SOUTHERN NASSAU COUNTY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELED FOR ALL BUT THE OCEAN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LINGERING SHOWERS EXIT THIS MORNING.
2) BRIEF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY FOR SOME SPOTS.
3) A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY, THEN STRONG WINDS AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES STRETCHED FROM NEAR NANTUCKET TO THE
DELMARVA THIS MORNING. THIS AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO
PASS OUT TO SEA AS THE UPR TROF WORKS THRU THE AREA THIS MRNG.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS MRNG ARE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND PER RADAR
AND LIGHTNING DATA. THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
DYNAMICS PASS EAST.
MODEL TIME HEIGHTS INDICATE DEEP SUBSIDENCE DEVELOPING TODAY.
THIS SHOULD HELP TO BREAK UP MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER THIS AFTN
AND EVE. THE NBM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A WINDOW OF SKC BY LATE
AFTN.
KEY MESSAGE 2
RECENT NEW MOON WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS AND INCREASED STORM
SURGE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PUSH WATER LEVELS TO
JUST REACH MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS DURING THIS MORNING AND
TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT FOR THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR BROOKLYN,
SOUTHERN QUEENS, SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING
WILL PRESENT A LACK OF SUFFICIENT OFFSHORE FLOW WITH WINDS THEN
BECOMING MORE ONSHORE BY THE END OF THE MORNING. SO, WATER
LEVELS DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WILL LIKELY
BE AROUND THE SAME AS TODAY (OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER), AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF BRIEF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS
WILL MAINLY BE FOR SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO SOUTHWEST
SUFFOLK.
LAST NIGHT'S HIGH TIDE CAME IN A BIT HIGHER THAN FORECAST FOR
EASTERN BAYS LIKE MONTAUK AND ORIENT. THIS MORNING'S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED AND THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED HERE AS WELL ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY PICKING UP ON A STRONG COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE 00Z GFS AND AI-GFS BOTH HAVE THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FRI
AFTN, WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY QUICKER. THERE WILL BE GOOD SHEAR
WITH THE SYSTEM, HOWEVER THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WILL DEPEND
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ANY MARITIME CLOUD COVER. AS A
RESULT, CONFIDENCE IN STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS IS LOW ATTM.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE SETUP, ESPECIALLY WITH A POTENTIAL 170+ KT
H3 JET OVER ON/QC, IT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR STRONG WINDS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FROPA AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DEEP MIXING ON NWLY FLOW
COULD PUSH WINDS TO ADVY LEVELS. IN ADDITION, SOME SUBFREEZING
TEMPS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THICKNESSES PLUMMET. FOR SAT NIGHT,
THE NBM HAS LOWS IN THE 30S FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MEX
HOWEVER IS EVEN COLDER WITH WIDESPREAD UPR 20S DESPITE THE WIND.
BECAUSE THE COLD AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE HIGHLY TRANSITORY, DID
NOT STRAY FROM THE NBM ATTM.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TODAY WITH VFR EXPECTED BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS MAY MOVE IN FROM THE EAST
LATE IN TAF PERIOD, AFFECTING KGON AND POTENTIALLY KISP AND
KBDR.
N/NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT EARLY THROUGH THE MORNING. BECOMING MORE
NW AND LIGHTENING INTO THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VRB OR UNDER 5
KT OUT OF THE N TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME SE AND INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KT TUESDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY. CHANCE OF A SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM TOWARDS KGON AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS. NW GUSTS UP
TO 30 KT LATE FRIDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY AS LOW PRES TRACKS FURTHER
AWAY FROM THE WATERS. THE SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN THRU
TONIGHT FOR LINGERING HIGH SEAS.
WINDS AND SEAS MAY HIT SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN LATE TUE INTO
WED WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYS. THE REMAINING WATERS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS ATTM.
A STRONG FRONTAL SYS WILL THEN IMPACT THE WATERS ON FRI. SCA
COND ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL WATERS, THEN NW GALES ARE POSSIBLE ON
ALL WATERS BEHIND THE SYS FRI NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...
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