960
FXUS61 KOKX 151804
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
204 PM EDT WED APR 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HAS BEEN DELAYED UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT WITH THE LATEST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY, MAINLY
IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
3) RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MORE
SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK TO UNSEASONABLE LEVELS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD
LEADING TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND THE
CONTINUATION OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. BY FRIDAY, THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE, SHIFTING WIND
DIRECTIONS, AND CLOUD COVER WILL REDUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE WEEK, BUT WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
EARLIER CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK LARGELY DISSIPATED
UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINANT OVER THE
EAST. A SECOND SHORT WAVE ALOFT WILL PASS TO THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT, WHICH MAY TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY ACROSS CONNECTICUT ALONG THE THERMAL TROUGH. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND
ON FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
MITIGATE HIGHS SOMEWHAT RELATIVE TO RECENT WARMTH, WITH FRIDAY HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S INLAND AND LOW 70S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN.
THEREAFTER, A MORE POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW DIVES SOUTH OUT OF
CENTRAL CANADA SUNDAY-MONDAY BRINGING WITH IT SHOT OF COLDER
AIR FOR SUNDAY- TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE
PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
BOARD AND GENERAL WARMUP THEREAFTER INTO MIDWEEK. NBM SPREAD FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES IS ON THE ORDER OF 5 DEGREES FOR THAT PERIOD,
INDICATING SOME CONSENSUS IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THE COLDEST
NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH SOME SUPPORT ALOFT FROM A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY WILL INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA. SOME SHEAR, BUT VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY FOR LATE AFTERNOON PER
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOULD MAKE ANY THUNDER POTENTIAL CONDITIONAL ON
DESTABILIZATION. ON SUNDAY, A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH
PERHAPS SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN POST FRONT BY EARLY MONDAY,
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. NBM PROBABILITIES OF MORE THAN
0.5" OF PRECIPITATION ARE ONLY AROUND 20-30%, OWING TO QUICK
MOVING, MAINLY LIGHT EVENT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVE
ACROSS UPSTATE NEW YORK TODAY, A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL EXTEND
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VFR FOR MUCH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING AND
THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES WILL BE NORTH OF THE
NYC TERMINALS AND MOST OF THE CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
PRECIP REACHING THE NYC TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW AROUND 10KT KT INLAND AND S ALONG THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20 KT AT THE NYC
METROS NORTH/WEST AND WITH THE SEA BREEZE AT KJFK/KISP. WINDS
DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT BY 00Z-01Z THU. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE IN MANY SPOTS TONIGHT, THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY TO 8-15KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20KT.
LOW CHANCE OF FOG TONIGHT WHICH MAY BRING FLIGHT CATEGORIES DOWN
TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CHANCE FOR A SHOWER AT THE NYC TERMINALS THIS EVENING, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY: VFR. GUSTY S WINDS.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH MVFR OR LOWER COND.
SATURDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR COND POSSIBLE. W WINDS G20KT
IN THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WAVES ACROSS THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS MAY BRIEFLY SWELL TO
AROUND 5 FT FRI AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVEL INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING NEAR SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT COULD BE REACHED:
WED, APRIL 15:
KEWR: 88/1960
KBDR: 81/1960
KNYC: 87/1941
KLGA: 86/1941
KJFK: 80/2006
KISP: 78/2024
DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT COULD BE REACHED:
WED, APRIL 15:
KEWR: 60/2023
KBDR: 53/2012
KNYC: 67/1941
KLGA: 64/1941
KJFK: 58/1960
KISP: 56/2023
THU, APRIL 16:
KEWR: 64/2002
KBDR: 53/2002
KNYC: 69/2002
KLGA: 68/2002
KJFK: 57/2002
KISP: 55/2012
FRI, APRIL 17:
KEWR: 68/2002
KBDR: 57/2002
KNYC: 74/2002
KLGA: 73/2002
KJFK: 60/2002.
KISP: 61/2002
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MD/DBR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MD/DBR
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