926  
FXUS61 KOKX 181711  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
111 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE  
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
STILL EXPECTING CLOUDS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON  
PROGRESSES. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS  
AFTERNOON. NE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS BEEN ADVECTING LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO  
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE  
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GETTING TRAPPED  
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 4-5 KFT. SCT-BKN STRATOCU  
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH  
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP CLEAR ANY OF THE REMAINING  
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY EARLY EVENING.  
 
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE  
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  
 
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES DUE  
TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE HUMBERTO.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
 
 
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY  
BUILDS OVER THE TRI-STATE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN  
PLACE NEAR THE COAST, SO WINDS MAY NOT FULLY DECOUPLE HERE.  
OTHERWISE, GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST  
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.  
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER  
50S.  
 
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS WESTERN ATLANTIC  
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE OVER  
THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S  
TO LOWER 70S.  
 
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES  
ON THURSDAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE  
HUMBERTO.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED  
PERIOD DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL  
RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL  
TEMPERATURES.  
 
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT LOWS  
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE 40S FOR THE  
INTERIOR AND IN THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WITH COASTAL  
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S. WITH BETTER MIXING IN PLACE ON  
FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY,  
ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR  
TEMPERATURES RISE HIGHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE HIGHS WILL BE 10-  
12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.  
 
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INDIRECT IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS RIP  
CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES. THERE IS  
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF OF 5 TO 8 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY AS SWELLS ARRIVE. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER  
FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST INFORMATION ON HUMBERTO. CONDITIONS AT THE  
BEACHES SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE SATURDAY.  
 
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT  
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW  
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.  
 
VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE  
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS/GUSTS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.  
 
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT:  
HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: NO TACTICAL AMENDMENTS SCHEDULED AND NO  
STRATEGIC AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS  
AFTERNOON.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
 
   
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
 
VFR.   
MONDAY
 
VFR AM. CHC MVFR IN -SHRA AND SW GUSTS 20KT PM.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY TO 5-7 FT AND THESE SEAS  
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LONG  
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE HUMBERTO. IN ADDITION,  
WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING  
OFFSHORE ON THE OCEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL FALL BELOW  
SCA LEVELS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. ROUGH SEAS WILL  
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS LONG PERIOD  
SWELLS CONTINUE FROM HURRICANE HUMBERTO. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE  
BELOW SCA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF  
THE AIR.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-  
081-178-179.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...CB/DS  
NEAR TERM...PW  
SHORT TERM...DS  
LONG TERM...CB  
AVIATION...JC  
MARINE...CB/DS/PW  
HYDROLOGY...CB/DS  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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