164
FXUS61 KOKX 242350
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
750 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2021
SYNOPSIS
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE IN TO THE NORTH AS THE
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THIS UPDATE ACCOUNTING FOR
OBSERVATIONS OF TEMPERATURE, DEW POINT AND SKY COVER. ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE AREA.
SOUTHERN ONTARIO CLOSED LOW LIFTS TOWARDS HUDSON BAY TONIGHT,
WHILE SHEARED OUT VORT AXIS REMAIN TO THE WEST AND JUST TO THE
EAST WITHIN A LARGE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION, WHILE A COLD FRONT STALL JUST E OF SE NEW ENGLAND.
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL VERY CLOSE TO THE REGION AND
SHEARED OUT VORT AXIS JUST TO THE WEST AND EAST OF THE REGION,
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER TONIGHT ACROSS FAR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. MEANWHILE TO THE
WEST, PARTICULARLY NYC METRO, NJ, AND LOWER HUD, SW CT AND W
LONG ISLAND, CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. THIS
WILL BRING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE
URBAN CENTERS, WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE 40S. GENERALLY 50S TO
NEAR 60S FOR FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH CLOUD COVER AND
COASTAL/URBAN CENTERS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER LOW
DIGGING TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT, WITH LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THIS AXIS NEGATIVELY
TILTS TOWARDS THE NE US SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF HUDSON BAY THIS WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE, A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS NEAR SE MA, WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION GRADUALLY
WEAKENS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
SAT NIGHT, MODELS SIGNALING A FRONTAL WAVE RIDING NE FROM CAPE
HATTERAS ON SAT AND TRACKING SE OF LONG ISLAND ON SAT NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION SAT NIGHT.
A CONTINUATION OF TODAYS PATTERN FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER SAT, WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL CLOSE TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION AND SHEARED OUT VORT AXIS TO THE EAST OF THE REGION,
LINGERING THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT
ACROSS FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. IN
FACT, POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
E LONG ISLAND/SE CT SAT NIGHT WITH THE EARLIER MENTIONED
FRONTAL WAVE. QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ON THIS THOUGH, SO ONLY LOW-
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER POTENTIAL. INDICATION ARE THAT ANY
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WOULD BE LIGHT.
MEANWHILE TO THE WEST, PARTICULARLY NYC METRO, NE NJ, LOWER
HUD, SW CT AND W LONG ISLAND, CLEAR/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL
PREVAIL UNDER WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE DURING THIS PERIOD.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SAT IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE TO LOWER 70S FOR EASTERN PORTIONS
WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. LOWS TEMPS SAT NIGHT
GENERALLY IN 50S TO AROUND 60 FOR COASTAL AND EASTERN AREAS,
WHILE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS FOR NW INTERIOR
AREAS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE LONG-TERM PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
THAT SITS OVER THE NORTHEAST GETTING REINFORCED BY MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE AND
POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED TIMEFRAME.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH TAKES HOLD OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS WELL TO THE NORTH. MUCH OF
THE AREA LOOKS DRY AND COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE SPINNING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH SENDS A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW BY TUESDAY.
THIS COLD FRONT GETS ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BY
THE TIME IT MOVES SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, WHICH MAY
RESULT IN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG IT.
IN THE MID-LEVELS, A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE AREA GREATLY
AMPLIFIES A RIDGE OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY WHICH EXTENDS INTO
THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA. A SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE AREA
STRAIGHT FROM THE NORTH WHICH REINFORCES THE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND PREVENTS THE RIDGE FROM PROGRESSING EASTWARD.
THIS REINFORCEMENT IN THE MID-LEVELS LIKELY FORCES A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT. A STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH
FORCES THE LOW PRESSURE TO RETROGRADE BACK WESTWARD INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THIS FORCES AN ANTICYCLONIC WAVE BREAK OVER
THE AREA WITH A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED OVER THE
EAST COAST AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. WHILE
THE EXACT STRENGTH, TIMING, AND PLACEMENT OF THESE FEATURES
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SOME DEPICTION OF
THIS.
AS A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, AND THEN MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST FROM THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW FROM THURSDAY AND
THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. WITH A N/NE FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHT BELOW AVERAGE WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH SAT. WEAK
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD PASS WELL OFF THE COAST SAT NIGHT.
VFR. LOWER STRATOCU AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE
MAY BACK IN OFF THE WATER OUT EAST LATE DAY (AFFECTING MAINLY
KGON) AS THE LOW PASSES OFFSHORE.
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VRB TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME N-NE DURING THE
MORNING, THEN SW IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY SEA
BREEZE COMPONENT AT KJFK/KGON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS E OF
THE NYC METROS SAT NIGHT, OTHERWISE VFR.
TUESDAY
POSSIBLE MVFR IN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WEDNESDAY
VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS E OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET UNTIL MIDNIGHT DUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDING 5-FT SE SWELL. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS RETURN AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH SAT NIGHT. LONG PERIOD 4-FT SE SWELL MAY WORK INTO THE
WATERS SAT NIGHT FROM DISTANT SUBTROPICAL STORM TERESA, LOCATED
N OR BERMUDA.
NEAR SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SEAS NEAR 5 FEET AND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. OCEAN SEAS
COULD ALSO REACH SCA LEVELS BY LATE WEEK.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED ATTM.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
EXPECT A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR SAT AS SWELLS SUBSIDE TO
3 FT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK ON SUNDAY
AS LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS COULD BUILD BACK TO 4 FT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SYNOPSIS...NV/MW
NEAR TERM...NV/MW
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...NV/MW
HYDROLOGY...NV/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV/MW
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