581
FXUS61 KOKX 261442
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE HAVE BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH
THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINLY FOR NYC
AND AREAS NORTH AND WEST. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY WEST
OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
2) DRY AND SEASONABLE FOR THE WEEKEND AHEAD, WITH A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
THINKING WITH THIS UPDATE, AS THE INGREDIENTS ARE SETTING UP FOR A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
MID LEVEL OPEN TROUGH APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST EARLY THURSDAY,
WEAKENING AS IT DOES SO. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH A SLOWLY MOVING
FRONTAL SYSTEM ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE, AND APPROACHES THE LOCAL
AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
A WARM FRONT NEARS THE REGION BY EARLY THURSDAY, WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCING AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOW 70S BY THURSDAY
MORNING. AS WELL-ADVERTISED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, PWATS DO
GET UP TO ABOUT 1.75" UNDER THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH IS HIGH
(NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR 8/27 PER SPC SOUNDING CLIMO) BUT
NOT AS HIGH AS PREVIOUS EVENTS THIS SUMMER. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT APPROACHES AND LIFTS TO OUR NORTH.
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION, AND THUS THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING,
LOOKS TO OCCUR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH THAT SETS UP ALONG OR NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
AREAWIDE AMOUNTS FROM THE NBM AND GLOBAL MODELS DO TO NOT LOOK TOO
IMPRESSIVE, WITH PERHAPS 0.5"-1.0" THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY; HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE LOHUD. HOWEVER, THE CAM WINDOW NOW INCLUDES SOME
OF THE EVENT, AT LEAST THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. THE 00Z HREF HAS AN AREA
OF 10% OF >3"/3 HRS DURING THE EVENT, SUGGESTING THAT ANY FLASH
FLOODING WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE HREF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE DOMINATED BY THE 00Z HRRR AND 00Z HRW/FV3, WHICH
DEPICT AMOUNTS OVER 3" NW OF NYC BY 00Z FRIDAY. SOME HREF MEMBERS
SHOW VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THOSE SAME
AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE WPC URBAN RAINFALL RATE DASHBOARD
ADVERTISES THE POSSIBILITY OF >2" PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES FOR
NYC FROM THE HRRR AND RRFS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SO, AS WE ARE
STILL 36-48 HOURS FROM THE EVENT, THESE ARE EXCESSIVE PRECIP.
SIGNALS TO BE NOTED, BUT NOT SET IN STONE, WITH RESPECT TO
MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION. FUTURE CAM OUTPUT WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR AN UPWARD TREND IN THE MODELED RAINFALL. WPC DOES
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND MARGINAL RISK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA EXCEPT EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT.
FINALLY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO INCREASE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING BOTH DECENT INSTABILITY (~1500-2500J/KG
MUCAPE) AND SOME SHEAR, SO CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS, WITH DCAPE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 500-1000
J/KG. SPC MAINTAINS THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
NYC NORTH AND WEST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM TURNS INTO WEAK
RIDGING BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE. ANY
LEFTOVER SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM FRIDAY SHOULD BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SKIES WILL CLEAR
WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY, AND DRY CONDITIONS LASTING INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, AND DEWPOINTS CLIMB A FEW DEGREES RELATIVE TO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO BUILD
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFFSHORE TODAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS INCREASE TO 10KT OR LESS AND DIMINISH A
BIT TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY MORNING, HOWEVER THE
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN. WILL
COVER THIS WITH A TEMPO FOR NOW FROM 15-18Z.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TODAY COULD BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: VFR THU AM, BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER IN SHRA AND TSRA
MID TO LATE MORNING. S WINDS 10-15 KT G20-25 KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES W/ SHRA AND TSRA,
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CT.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY: VFR. LIGHT WINDS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH
OCEAN SEAS GETTING TO AROUND 4 FT AND GUSTS APPROACHING 20 KT.
OTHERWISE, SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH SEAS AND WINDS
DIMINISHING FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS FOR THE WEEKEND.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS LIKELY DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ALL BEACHES WITH BUILDING 2 FT SE SWELLS.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ALL BEACHES EXCEPT SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK COUNTY WITH BUILDING 4 FT
WIND WAVES, LINGERING 2 FT SE SWELLS, AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 15
TO 20 KT. SOUTHEAST SUFFOLK COUNTY BEACHES WILL SEE A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS DUE TO WEAKER WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DBR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DBR
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