405
FXUS61 KOKX 182041
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
341 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AT
AROUND NOONTIME FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN FOR THE
START OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES NEARBY LATE SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SUNDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT THEN PASSES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/
CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING, IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
THE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO RISE. POSSIBLY A LITTLE RAINFALL TOWARDS MIDNIGHT,
BUT CHANCES INCREASE MORE RAPIDLY LATE AT NIGHT.
SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
KEY MESSAGES:
* A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NEAR NOONTIME ON FRIDAY,
BRINGING STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN, ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
* POTENTIAL TYING OR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES EARLY FRIDAY
FALL BACK INTO THE 20S FRIDAY NIGHT, TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.
ANY LEFTOVER MOISTURE MAY FREEZE IF DRYING DOES NOT OCCUR.
RAIN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT BECOMES MORE LIKELY AS THE NIGHTTIME
PROGRESSES WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY SEEING RAINFALL BY SUNRISE
FRIDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET LIFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, PLUS A
POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENT WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY, COULD CAUSE
THE RAIN TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY OCCURS
STARTING AROUND SUNRISE WITH SOME IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE
WITH THE THREAT CONTINUING UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A LINE OF CONVECTIVELY-ENHANCED
SHOWERS. AREAS OF MINOR/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ARE ANTICIPATED.
FLASH FLOODING IS NOT A CONCERN AT THIS POINT WITH THE SYSTEM
PUSHING THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE LIQUID EQUIVALENT OF ANY
REMAINING SNOW PACK IS PROBABLY NO MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.
STILL A CHANCE OF A SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT,
AN MAYBE EVEN SOME SNOW MIXED IN WELL NW OF THE CITY TOWARDS SUNDOWN.
REGARDING WINDS, AN 80-90KT LOW LEVEL JET AT 925MB SHIFTS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE COASTAL AREA DURING FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
HOWEVER SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION, SO IT APPEARS THAT WINDS
ARE GOING TO HAVE A TOUGH TIME MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IT MIGHT
TAKE SURFACE TEMPS REACHING 60 DEGREES TO GET MIXING DEEP ENOUGH TO
BRING DOWN GUSTS STRONG ENOUGH FOR HIGH WIND WARNING CONSIDERATION,
AND SOME SPOTS MAY WARM UP CLOSE TO THIS. THINKING IS THAT ABOUT 50%
OF THE 925MB JET WINDS COULD STILL MIX DOWN ANYWAY, WHICH TRANSLATES
TO HIGHER-END WIND ADVISORY GUSTS, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
GUST OR TWO THAT REACHES WARNING CRITERIA. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE OCCURRENCE WOULD BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A HIGH
WIND WARNING, BUT WILL KEEP MESSAGING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED 60MPH
GUSTS IN THE ADVISORY. NO CHANGE TO THE END TIME OF THE ADVISORY,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT 46MPH+ GUSTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY OCCUR IN THE MORNING RIGHT AHEAD OF THE RAIN
- GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THIS IS CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTIONS BELOW FOR THESE
RECORDS. TEMPS THEN FALL SOMEWHAT WITH THE RAINFALL, THEN FALL MORE
STEADILY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE START OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT. A MORE RAPID DROP IN THE TEMPERATURES THEN HAPPENS
THIS EVENING AS THE ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE FRONT.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WINDS CAN DRY OUT SURFACES BEFORE TEMPS FALL
BELOW FREEZING IN THE EVENING, THERE COULD BE SPOTS WHERE FREEZING
OF STANDING WATER OCCURS.
DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THEN
SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KEEPS US DRY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ANY PRECIP WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION AT NIGHT
SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. SATURDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE JUST BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
KEY MESSAGES:
* MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY.
PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE FORECAST ON TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
* TEMPERATURES MODERATE THIS WEEKEND, WITH A FRIGID AIRMASS MOVING
IN ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE SEASONABLE BY MIDWEEK.
THE AREA REMAINS POST-FRONTAL FOR SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES, THOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN QUITE GUSTY FROM
THE W/NW WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH. BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD
FRONT, A FRIGID AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
ONLY IN THE LOW 30S.
HIGH PRESSURE ON MONDAY SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO RELAX AND SHIFT OUT OF THE SW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH.
MEANWHILE, MID-LEVEL ENERGY PASSING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN EARLY TUESDAY AND MAY BEGIN AS
SNOW DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES. MARGINAL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY MAY ALLOW FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING, EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
MAINLY A LIGHT RAIN INTO THE AFTERNOON. A LOT OF THE PRECIPITATION
TYPES WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM, WITH AN
EARLIER PASS-THROUGH ALLOWING FOR MORE SNOW THAN RAIN, BUT EITHER
WAY, QPF AND PRECIP INTENSITY LOOK TO BE LIGHT SO ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST AS IT INTENSIFIES ON WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING FOR
HIGH PRESSURE TO ONCE AGAIN BUILD INTO THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK AND
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE MAY PASS NEARBY ON CHRISTMAS DAY, BUT GUIDANCE
IS MUCH TOO VARIABLE TO HONE DOWN ANY DETAILS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT AND PASSES FRIDAY
MORNING.
VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS
TOWARDS MID TO LATE EVENING WHICH COULD BRING TEMPORARY MVFR.
SHOWERS BECOME MORE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE MVFR TO EVENTUALLY IFR.
SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND FOR EARLY FRIDAY,
MAINLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO
LATE MRNG/EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS BECOME VFR IN THE AFTN BEHIND THE FROPA.
WINDS THIS EVENING SE TO S NEAR 10 KTS. SOUTHERLY WINDS REALLY
START TO PICK UP OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING NEAR
30-35 KT. WINDS FOR WESTERN TERMINALS MAXIMIZE NEAR 25-30 KT
WITH 40-45 KT GUSTS NEAR 12Z FRIDAY, WITH THESE STRONGER WINDS
EXPANDING EWD THRU 13-14Z.
SOME ISOLD PEAK GUSTS AROUND 50KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ARPTS ON THE
COAST. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY WITH THE FROPA AS THEY BACK TO THE W.
WINDS THEN INCREASE IN THE AFTN INTO THE EVE PUSH WITH SUSTAINED
AROUND 20-25KT AND GUSTS IN THE 40S. THERE COULD BE ISOLD HIGHER
GUSTS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY AROUND 00Z WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG
WINDS WITH THE SYS.
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT THRU FRIDAY MORNING WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 50-60 KT AT 1500 TO 2000 FT AGL.
IN ADDITION, EARLY FRIDAY, THERE COULD BE AN EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM, WHICH COULD BRING DOWN LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS.
COVERAGE AND PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO FURTHER REFINE THE TIMING OF LOWERING
CATEGORIES, SHOWERS, TSTMS, AND MAX WIND GUSTS FOR LATE TNGT AND FRI.
PEAK GUSTS AROUND 50 KT POSSIBLE FRI MRNG, ESPECIALLY JFK. CHANCE
FOR ISOLD PEAK GUSTS AROUND 45-50KT IN THE AFTN/EVE BEHIND THE
FRONT.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
REST OF FRIDAY: BECOMING VFR WITH W WINDS GUSTING AOA 40KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. DECREASING NW WINDS BECOMING SW LATE IN THE DAY.
SUNDAY: VFR. W WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT.
MONDAY: VFR WITH DIMINISHING NW FLOW.
TUESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCES FOR -SN/-RA/-RASN.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
THE GALE WARNING FOR ALL WATERS HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO GO THROUGH ALL
OF FRIDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 50 KT ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER
DURING FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE THE WARNING EXPIRES, A SCA WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED ON THE NON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING,
THEN GUSTS HERE MAY APPROACH 25 KT ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. SCA TO N
EAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON THE OCEANS SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SCA LIKELY ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS
BY SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSIST ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING MONDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WITH SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS, AS WELL AS WITH ANY EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY OCCUR UNTIL AROUND NOONTIME FRIDAY. THESE
WILL BE QUICK MOVING AND AS SUCH, ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF RAINFALL. AROUND 3/4 TO 1 1/3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, ARE EXPECTED. WHILE HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 0.25IN/HR OR LOWER, HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE RATES CLOSER TO 0.50-0.75IN/HR.
OUTSIDE OF MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
IN LOCALIZED AREAS WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
RECEIVED, NO OTHER HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A NEW MOON OCCURRING FRIDAY EVENING WILL RESULT IN AS LITTLE AS
1 3/4 FT OF SURGE CAUSING MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND 2 1/2 FT
CAUSING MODERATE IMPACTS. A HIGH END GALE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW
AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE FRIDAY MORNING HIGH
TIDE CYCLE FOR OUR TRI-STATE SOUTH FACING COASTS AND EVEN
TIDALLY AFFECTED RIVERS (HACKENSACK AND HUDSON R), WITH
LOCALIZED MODERATE ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAYS OF QUEENS AND W LI.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PEAK WINDS OCCURRING DURING
THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE OCCURRING AFTER HIGH TIDE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS
VULNERABLE COASTAL LOCALES ALONG NY/NJ HARBOR, JAMAICA BAY,
GREAT SOUTH BAY, TWIN FORKS OF LI, AND COASTAL WESTCHESTER/CT.
WATER LEVELS WILL LIKELY GET CLOSE TO MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS
ALONG JAMAICA BAY AND WESTERN GREAT SOUTH BAY, COMBINED WITH
RAIN AND WAVE IMPACTS, DURING MORNING COMMUTE, A COASTAL FLOOD
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EXACERBATED FLOOD IMPACTS.
OTHERWISE, COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED INTO
SOUTHERN CT (WAVE ACTION OF 3-5 FT DURING HIGH TIDE), E BERGEN
COUNTY AND NE SUFFOLK COUNTY FOR SIMILAR REASONING AS
ABOVE/BELOW.
WITH S/SE GALES RAMPING UP THROUGH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE
(FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR SURGE ALONG SOUTH FACING COASTS), HIGH WAVE
ACTION ONTO OPEN WATER COASTS, AND POTENTIAL COINCIDENCE OF
HEAVY RAIN, THIS FORECAST HAS BEEN LEANED TOWARDS THE HIGHER END
OF PLAUSIBLE SCENARIOS. A BLEND BETWEEN SNAP-EX 50TH PERCENTILE
(NYHOPS 95TH PERCENTILE), ETSS AND STOFS WAS USED.
OFFSHORE WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL END THE COASTAL FLOOD
THREAT WITH SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
DECEMBER 19:
KEWR: 60/1931
KBDR: 57/1967
KNYC: 58/1931
KLGA: 57/1957
KJFK: 56/1967
KISP: 55/2017
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
CTZ009>012.
NY...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
NYZ072-074-075.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ079-
081.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ080-
178-179.
NJ...WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY FOR
NJZ006-104-106-108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-
340-345-350-353-355.
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