332
FXUS61 KOKX 292041
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
441 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY JULY 4TH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEAR RECORD, DANGEROUS HEAT LIKELY WED INTO SAT WITH LITTLE
OVERNIGHT RELIEF. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT CAN BE DEADLY FOR THOSE
WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION. IMPACTS TO
TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE AND ELECTRICAL AND WATER SYSTEMS
IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
2) SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFT/EVE THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
DAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
3) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON WEDNESDAY (SEE MARINE
SECTION FOR DISCUSSION)
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
STRONG AGREEMENT IN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HEAT RIDGING (+2-3 STD
500MB HEIGHTS) CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY FOR MID
TO LATE WEEK, WITH GENERAL AGREEMENT ON RIDGING GRADUALLY
GETTING SUPPRESSED THRU THE WEEKEND AS NORTHERN STREAM CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES THROUGH SE CANADA
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NEAR RECORD
DANGEROUS HEAT MID TO LATE WEEK. MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES IN GOOD
GENERAL AGREEMENT INDICATING 850MB TEMPS BUILDING TO (+3-4 STD)
THU/FRI, WITH 850 TEMPS AS HIGH AS 24-25C. BASED ON SPC SOUNDING
ANALYSIS THE LAST TIME 850MB TEMPS WERE RAOB OBSERVED ABOVE 24C
WERE IN 1956!
STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD ON HOW HIGH 850 HPA TEMPS
GET ON WED (WAA INTENSITY) AND SAT (SHORTWAVE/CONVECTION
TIMING), WITH VARIATION BETWEEN 21C AND 25C. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S LIKELY AWAY FROM SOUTH COASTS, WITH HIGHEST
END POTENTIAL FOR LOW 100S FOR NYC METRO AND N&W BOTH DAYS.
GREATER MODEL CONFIDENCE IN AIR TEMPS AWAY FROM IMMEDIATE SOUTH
AND EAST COASTS BEING ABLE TO REACH 100 TO 105F THU AND FRI,
WITH MODERATE TO HIGH LREF PROBABILITIES OF HEAT INDICES OF 105F
TO 110F. THIS IS A RARE SIGNAL.
AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS SHIFTS, A LOWER PREDICTABILITY FACTOR IN
THE HEAT INDEX FORECAST WILL BE THE TDS. LARGE SPREAD IN
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL SEEN IN THE LATEST NBM, WITH MEAN VALUES IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. BASED ON THE EXTREME T FORECAST, THIS
SHOULD STILL RESULTS IN HI VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 FOR LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WED THRU SAT.
JUST AS IMPORTANTLY AS THE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LACK OF OVERNIGHT
RELIEF AS LOWS WED NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT ARE NOT LIKELY TO
DROP BELOW THE LOWER 80S FOR THE NYC/NJ URBAN CENTERS, AND
UPPER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA.
THIS LEVEL OF HEAT CAN BE DEADLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING AND HYDRATION. IMPACTS TO TRANSPORTATION (RAIL, BRIDGE,
ROAD/TARMAC) INFRASTRUCTURE AND ELECTRICAL (HIGH DEMAND
ELECTRICAL) AND WATER SYSTEMS (OPEN HYDRANTS REDUCING WATER
PRESSURE) HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH PREVIOUS HEAT EVENTS OF THIS
SEVERITY AND DURATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GIVEN OUR PLACEMENT ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE, WE ARE SET UP FOR POTENTIAL CONVECTION/MCSS
ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. WHILE THIS IS COMMON IN
THIS PATTERN, THERE IS INHERENT UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING, PLACEMENT
AND STRENGTH OF THIS ACTIVITY.
CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF POTENTIAL FOR A LATE AFT/EVE MCS ACROSS THE
REGION ON TUESDAY, WHICH IS INLINE WITH 600-800MB CAPPING AND
WEAK INSTABILITY AT THE COAST, AND SHORTWAVE FORCING WELL TO
THE NORTH. POTENTIAL FOR AN OVERNIGHT/EARLY WED AM SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TRIGGERING OFF OUTFLOW.
AS MENTIONED THERE IS LIMITED PREDICTABILITY ON TSTM SPECIFICS
WED THRU SAT, WHICH WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF CONVECTIVELY
MODIFIED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.
POTENTIAL FOR ISO-SCT SEVERE STORMS EXISTS EACH DAY IN THE
HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, INCREASED DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN VICINITY
OF SHORTWAVES, AND POSSIBLE EMLS. THIS SEVERE THREAT IS SIGNALED
IN CSU-MLP AND AI NWP CONVECTIVE GUIDANCES AS WELL.
THE GREATEST HOURLY TIMING THREAT WILL BE DURING THE AFT/EVE
HOURS, BUT THE EXISTS AT ANY TIME OF DAY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
OVERALL DAILY TSTM CHANCES MAY BE REDUCED ON THURSDAY AS UPPER
RIDGE MAKES IT FARTHEST NE BUILD INTO THE REGION. ON THE OTHER
END, HIGHEST TSTM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ON SAT AFT/NIGHT WITH
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING SLIGHTLY
SUPPRESSING THE RIDGING DOWN THRU THE AREA AND APPROACH OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CHANCE
OF MVFR OR LOWER AT THE EASTERN TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 06Z.
LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR UNDER 10 KTS TODAY. S-SW
WINDS DO PICK UP TUESDAY TO NEAR 10-15 KT, GUSTING TO 20KTS BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
.TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR, BUT CHANCES FOR IFR/LIFR IN FOG/STRATUS EAST
OF NYC TERMINALS, MORE LIKELY AT KGON FOR EARLY MORNING. ALSO, BRIEF
LOCALIZED MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LATE DAY INTO NIGHTTIME SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS. S-SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST,
AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR, BUT BRIEF LOCALIZED MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE
IN LATE DAY INTO NIGHTTIME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SW WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT MAINLY ALONG THE COAST, AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
.THURSDAY: VFR.
.FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, BUT CHANCES FOR MVFR OR LOWER WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE EVENING. SOME SW-
NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT ARE POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY: VFR WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. W/SW WINDS 5-10KTS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEK, OUTSIDE OF AFT/EVE COASTAL JET FORMATION.
A BRIEF PERIOD OF S/SW SCA WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFT/EVE AND
THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFT/EVE FOR WATER WEST OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET, NY HARBOR, W LIS, AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF W LI. THIS
WILL LIKELY HAVE OCEAN SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO 5 FT TUE EVE INTO
WED EVE.
AS RIDGING BUILD FARTHER OVER THE WATERS THU AND FRI, SUB SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE WAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT.
RIP CURRENTS:
THERE IS A LOW RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE REST OF TODAY AT LOCAL
OCEAN BEACHES WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A 1-2 FT SWELL.
STRENGTHENING S/SW FLOW ON TUESDAY INCREASES THE RISK TO MODERATE AT
ALL BEACHES, AND COULD BECOME HIGH AT NYC AND NASSAU BEACHES BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH 15-20G30KT WINDS.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON WEDNESDAY WITH 20 KT SW FLOW
AND 5 FT S SWELLS AT 5-6 SEC PERIODS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 1:
KEWR: 100/1963
KBDR: 95/1963
KNYC: 100/1901
KLGA: 97/2018
KJFK: 102/1963
KISP: 96/1964
JULY 2:
KEWR: 102/1966
KBDR: 100/1966
KNYC: 100/1966
KLGA: 101/1966
KJFK: 101/1966
KISP: 99/1966
JULY 3:
KEWR: 105/1966
KBDR: 99/1966
KNYC: 103/1966
KLGA: 107/1966
KJFK: 104/1966
KISP: 104/1966
JULY 4:
KEWR: 105/1949
KBDR: 98/1949
KNYC: 102/1949
KLGA: 100/1949
KJFK: 101/2010
KISP: 97/2010
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 1:
KEWR: 77/2018
KBDR: 73/2013
KNYC: 79/2018
KLGA: 79/2018
KJFK: 75/1968
KISP: 73/2025
JULY 2:
KEWR: 79/2022
KBDR: 73/2022
KNYC: 82/1901
KLGA: 78/2002
KJFK: 74/2018
KISP: 74/2014
JULY 3:
KEWR: 82/2002
KBDR: 75/2002
KNYC: 82/2002
KLGA: 81/1966
KJFK: 78/2002
KISP: 76/2018
JULY 4:
KEWR: 81/2002
KBDR: 80/2002
KNYC: 81/2002
KLGA: 82/1999
KJFK: 80/2002
KISP: 76/2002
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
CTZ005>007-009>011.
EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-
176-178.
NJ...EXTREME HEAT WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR ANZ335-338-345-355.
DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...NV
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