197
FXUS61 KOKX 182011
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
311 PM EST SUN JAN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A DEEPENING COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE REGION
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, PRODUCING ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5
INCHES.
2.) EXCEPT FOR THURSDAY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
FROM MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND, WITH THE COLDEST PERIODS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, AND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF ZERO, AND SHOULD BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION, AND WILL INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY EVENING AS A COASTAL LOW OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO DEEPEN, AND THEN TRACK
NORTHEAST, WELL OFFSHORE, THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW FALL SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX IN ALONG THE COAST BEFORE THE
SNOWFALL INCREASES ONCE AGAIN, AND COLDER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE COASTAL LOW. A STRONG VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN
UPPER TROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER JET TRACKS WEST AND
NORTH OF THE AREA. THESE FEATURES WILL ENCHAINS LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES INTO
EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION, UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA, AND UNTIL 400 AM EST FOR THE EASTERN AREA. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF 3 TO 5 INCHES IS STILL EXPECTED WITH ORANGE AND
WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTIES MORE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. THE
STORM IS RATHER QUICK MOVING AND PRECIPITATION MAY EXIT THE
EASTERN AREAS A LITTLE EARLIER THAN 400 AM MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE TROUGH REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS,
COLD WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE LONGER TERM,
BEGINNING WITH A COLD FROPA MON EVENING.
TEMPS MON NIGHT FALLING INTO THE TEENS COMBINED WITH BRISK W
FLOW 15- 20 MPH WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS NW OF NYC, AND IN THE LOWER
SINGLE DIGITS ELSEWHERE. AFTER A VERY COLD DAY ON TUE WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND LIGHTER WINDS ACTUAL
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER TUE NIGHT, WITH SINGLE DIGITS INLAND AND
TEENS FOR NYC METRO AND THE COAST, BUT MINIMUM WIND CHILLS WON'T
BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THOSE OF MON NIGHT.
A RETURN FLOW WED-THU AFTER THE HIGH PASSES SHOULD BRING A
GRADUAL RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS BY WED NIGHT-THU, WITH HIGHS
ON THU 35- 40. WAA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON THU
WILL ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF WET SNOW AND/OR RAIN SHOWERS. COLD
FROPA TAKES PLACE TOWARD EVENING, WITH TEMPS ONCE AGAIN
RETURNING TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH FRI EVENING WILL BRING A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR
MASS INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH EVEN COLDER TEMPS FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS/TEENS AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY IN THE LOWER 20S, AND WIND
CHILLS AT OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
FORECAST SHOWS MINIMAL CHANCES OF SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND, BUT
THIS REFLECTS MODEL DIFFERENCES, WITH THE GFS SHOWING AN ALBERTA
CLIPPER APPROACHING ON SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS COLD
HIGH PRESSURE, BUT EVENTUALLY DOES TREND TOWARD SNOW CHANCES BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH RETREATS.
AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE OCEAN THIS EVE
AND PASS OUT TO SEA LATE TNGT.
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVE. SOME -RA OR DZ COULD MIX IN
WHEN THE PCPN IS VERY LIGHT. THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW SHOULD
FALL BETWEEN 22Z-04Z. AFTER 04Z, LINGERING VERY LGT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE UNTIL CLEARING IN THE 9-11Z TIME FRAME. VFR THEN
REMAINS THRU MON.
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE 2-4 INCHES WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
LIGHT NE WINDS THIS EVE, BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT, THEN SHIFTING
TO THE W LATE. SPEEDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON MON, WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25KT LIKELY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
UNSCHEDULED AMD POSSIBLE FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES OR
PRECIPITATION TYPE.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY: VFR. W WINDS G20-25KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WINDS G20-25KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. SW-S WINDS G20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A BAND OF
SNOW. RAIN MAY MIX IN NEAR THE COASTS.
FRIDAY: VFR WITH W WINDS G20-25KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH A SCA IN
EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET THROUGH
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN SCA CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS SUNDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER, WITH STRENGTHENING GUSTY WEST FLOW
DEVELOPING MONDAY BETWEEN A LOW TRACKING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH SCA CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY ACROSS ALL THE WATERS. THE WESTERN OCEAN WATERS
BEGIN EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH THE NON OCEAN WATERS REACHING
SCA CONDITIONS BY AROUND NOON. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THEN
REMAIN ON ALL THE WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE
CHANCE OF GUSTS BRIEFLY NEARING GALE FORCE ON THE OCEAN WATERS
EAST OF MORICHES MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE GUSTY FLOW CONTINUING
THE ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH THE
OCEAN WATERS REMAINING AT SCA LEVELS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF LULU LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA COND LIKELY MAINLY FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS FROM WED NIGHT INTO FRI NIGHT. SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WED NIGHT WITH SW FLOW 20-25 KT, AND THEN
AGAIN THU NIGHT ON ALL WATERS AS WINDS SHIFT WNW AFTER A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, OTHERWISE ELEVATED OCEAN SEAS 5-7 FT EXPECTED.
ELEVATED SEAS 5-6 FT MAY BE CONFINED MORE TO THE WATERS E OF
FIRE ISLAND INLET FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-
009.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ006>008-
010>012.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR
NYZ067>075-176>179.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ078>081.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...MET
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