720
FXUS61 KOKX 061958
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
358 PM EDT WED MAY 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) INTERMITTENT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
2) BRIEFLY DRYING OUT LATE THIS WEEK, BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY.
3) A FRONTAL WAVE PASSING NEARBY OR TO THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING A LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MID-LEVEL TROUGH SINKS SOUTH AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES,
WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND CENTRAL
PA ADVANCING EAST AND THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT.
BROKEN BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS LEADING THE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO
WORK THROUGH THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST INTO LATE AFTERNOON. THE
STEADIEST OF THIS PRECIPITATION TAPERS BY EARLY EVENING, BUT
ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SKIRT THE COAST
TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE SPINS UP AND TRACKS NORTHEAST. A
FEW EMBEDDED RUMBLES OF THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE
ACTIVITY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM
WORKS FURTHER OFFSHORE.
QPF IS RELATIVELY LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND A QUARTER INCH IN MOST
AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE RAIN SHOULD PROVE BENEFICIAL
GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND AN EXPANDING
MODERATE DROUGHT LOCALLY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
INTO LATE WEEK, THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT
PROGRESSES FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST.
A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WORKS IN ON THE RESULTANT NW FLOW.
BREAKS OF SUN WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S
BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INTO THE WEEKEND, SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH IN PLACE, WITH A WARM FRONT LIKELY LIFTING
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN THAT COULD PERSIST INTO AT LEAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL LOOKS MODEST AT THIS TIME, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC
CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
NWP GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER GREAT LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT, AMPLIFYING AND PROGRESSING
TO ERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST MON-MON NIGHT, WITH LEADING
ENERGY FROM MULTIPLE BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM. DEGREE OF
PHASING OF THESE MULTIPLE STREAMS WITH THE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF A FRONTAL WAVE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PASS NEARBY OR JUST TO THE SE, AND
ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. LATEST NBM APPEARS TO BE KEYING IN ON A
MORE CONSOLIDATED FRONTAL WAVE PASSING CLOSE TO THE AREA A LA
THE 00Z ECMWF, WITH 3/4 TO AROUND 1 INCH OF RAIN, WHILE THE LESS
PHASED 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE LIGHTER, WITH 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FROM SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD TREND
COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, FROM NEAR NORMAL TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MVFR CIGS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TERMINALS AS THIS FIRST
BATCH OF PRECIPITATION STARTS TO MOVE EAST. AS THIS BATCH OF
RAINFALL ENDS (20-00Z), A SECOND BATCH OF RAIN MAY IMPACT THE
AREA TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BEFORE OR TOWARDS DAYBREAK
THURSDAY.
WINDS GUSTS HAVE STARTED TO DIMINISH SO WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
FROM THE SW 8-12KT. WINDS BECOME NW TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT
AROUND OR UNDER 10 KT AND SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR
20KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES TODAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. W/WSW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY: SHOWERS LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. S WIND
GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
SUNDAY: VFR EARLY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS BY EVENING.
S WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
MONDAY: SHOWERS LIKELY EARLY, WITH SOME DRIER CONDITIONS LATE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON ALL WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
DAY WITH SW GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT AND OCEAN SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 8 FT.
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS EVENING BEHIND A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, THOUGH OCEAN SEAS LINGER AOA 5 FT TONIGHT, BEFORE
LOWERING THURSDAY AM. SUB SCA CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST FRIDAY.
INCREASING SSW FLOW ON SATURDAY LIKELY BRINGS A RETURN TO SCA
CONDITIONS ON AT LEAST THE OCEAN, WHERE GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT DEVELOP
AND SEAS BUILD TO ABOVE 5 FT BY LATE AFTERNOON. NON OCEAN COASTAL
WATERS MAY ALSO SEE WIND GUSTS EXCEED SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS
LOWER SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ331-332-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ335-
338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/DR
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DR
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