308
FXUS61 KOKX 281503
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1103 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEKEND WITH A WARMING
TREND SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
2) A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY SET UP NEAR THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL OF
SHOWERS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
UNSEASONABLY COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A DEEP
COLD AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. HIGHS LIKELY DON'T GET OUT
OF THE 40S WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
MARCH. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN SUSTAINED WINDS ABOUT 10 TO 20 MPH. HOWEVER, A
DEEP MIXED LAYER WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BRING GUSTS OF 25 TO
30MPH, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WENT ABOVE NBM AND EVEN
ABOVE NBM 90TH PERCENTILE AS GUIDANCE DOES NOT SEEM TO CAPTURE
THE GUST POTENTIAL AFTER LOOKING AT MODEL SOUNDINGS. THESE
WINDS COMBINED WITH THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS
IN THE 30S THROUGH THE DAY.
THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND A RETURN FLOW SETS UP ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL AID IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH MID-WEEK. STUCK
WITH NBM TEMPERATURES FOR NOW EXCEPT ON MONDAY. FOR INLAND AREAS
AWAY FROM A COOL FLOW OFF THE WATERS WENT CLOSER TO THE NBM 50TH. IN
SOME LOCATIONS THE NBM 50TH WAS 5+ DEGREES WARMER THAN THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC AND MORE IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE. THE ONE THING
WORKING AGAINST WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DECENT CLOUD COVER. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE LOOK LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AS WE ARE WARM
SECTORED AHEAD OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS WILL BE HEAVILY DEPENDENT
ON THAT PASSAGE TIMING, BUT RIGHT NOW TIMING LOOKS TO BE MORE
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS NORTHEAST NJ IN
THE UPPER 70S WITH OTHER INTERIOR AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP NORTH OF THE AREA EARLY TO MID-WEEK
AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE ARE POPS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WHILE IT IS EARLY FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS, THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CSU-MLP EVEN HAS
A "MARGINAL" OVER THE AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
TONIGHT.
VFR.
NW WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH GUSTS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S KT
FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS
UP TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT NYC TERMINALS. WINDS WEAKEN QUICKLY
THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
SSW FLOW DEVELOPS SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
AFTER 16Z SUNDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
START AND END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
WIND DIRECTION SHOULD AVERAGE JUST NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS MAY BE LOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
AFTER APPROX 21Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY-MONDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT EACH AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. VFR POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST EARLY, THEN VFR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS LIKELY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 8PM
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND GUST UP TO 25
KT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 5FT.
QUIET CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY BEFORE THE FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY. THE SW FLOW INCREASES BRINGING SCA CONDITIONS TO AT
LEAST THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DURING THIS TIME, SEAS COULD REACH 10-12 FT ON THE OCEAN WATERS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...JC/DS
MARINE...JT
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