820
FXUS61 KOKX 170740 CCA
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
325 AM EDT FRI APR 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED MENTION OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG SOME COASTLINES
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TODAY IS THE LAST DAY IN THIS STRETCH OF EARLY SEASON WARMTH.
2) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR EASTERN AREAS.
3) MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS MAY BE REACHED ALONG SOME COASTLINES
WITH HIGH TIDE CYCLES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
4) A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY BRINGS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BEFORE USHERING IN A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE REGION SEES ONE LAST DAY FEATURING WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
WHILE NOT NEARLY AS HOT AS PREVIOUS DAYS WITH NW FLOW DEVELOPING
AND AN INCOMING TROUGH MOVING OVER INTO THE AFTERNOON,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL ACHIEVE THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST, AND PERHAPS INTO THE LOWER
80S ACROSS NE NJ AND PARTS OF THE NYC METRO. CLOUD COVER WITH
THE COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN ALOFT COULD ALSO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR. THE NATIONAL BLEND SEEMED REASONABLE AND IN LINE WITH
MOS AND SHORT RANGE HI-RES GUIDANCE.
THESE TEMPERATURES STILL REMAIN ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MID APRIL. THOUGH A COUPLE SITES COULD TIE OR BREAK DAILY
MAX LOW TEMPERATURES, DAILY RECORD HIGHS ARE NOT IN JEOPARDY,
GOING UP AGAINST THE HOTTEST APRIL DAY ON RECORD FOR THE REGION
BACK IN 2002. SEE CLIMATE SECTION FURTHER DOWN FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAIL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A FEW SHOWERS AROUND EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST REMAIN DRY, BUT COULD
SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT,
CLOSER TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW, BEFORE EXITING INTO MID MORNING.
THEREAFTER, SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE
AREA INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN RIGHT
BEHIND IT. WHILE FAR FROM A WASHOUT, THE INCOMING COLD POOL
ALOFT AND SUBSEQUENT STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD HELP INSTIGATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, BEST FORCING LIKELY ACROSS
EASTERN AREAS, MAINLY SE CT AND THE TWIN FORKS. CAN'T RULE OUT A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE ACTIVITY, THOUGH WEAK PARAMETERS
MITIGATE ANY SEVERE THREAT.
CONDITIONS DRY OUT THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF ANY DIURNAL HEATING,
AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH WATER LEVELS WITH A NEW MOON TODAY COULD
ALLOW MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED WITH TONIGHT'S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG THE WESTERN LI
SOUND, AS WELL AS SOME OF THE BACK BAYS ON THE SOUTH SHORE.
A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS BY SATURDAY, AND THIS ADDITIONAL
COMPONENT MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL AND EXTENT OF IMPACTED
COASTLINE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED
FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGE 4
A SHARP COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY, BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, AS WELL AS
A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND IT.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN WITH A NW FLOW BEHIND THE
FRONT AND TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALL BY LATE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ANY LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN COULD EVEN TAPER AS A FEW
WET FLAKES ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE 30S FOR MOST, OR AROUND 40 IN
THE NYC METRO. AFTERNOON HIGHS MONDAY IN SOME AREAS ARE PROGGED
NEARLY 40 DEGREES COLDER THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED THIS WEEK,
WITH LOCALES OUTSIDE THE URBAN METRO STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF
THE 40S. STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH THE COLD POOL ALOFT COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS,
THOUGH NBM POPS HAVE YET TO CATCH ON TO THIS POTENTIAL. THE
COLDEST IN THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT, WITH A
WIDESPREAD FREEZE ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND PERHAPS EVEN TOWARD
THE COAST.
THE COOLER REGIME APPEARS SHORT-LIVED, WITH GRADUAL MODERATION
RETURNING CONDITIONS TO ABOVE NORMAL BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT, AND TO THE
EAST BY EARLY THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE
FRONT WITH A WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
VFR. THE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS
REMAINING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE, AND CONTINUED WITH THE PROB30
GROUP. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND CHANCES REMAIN
LOW, WITH THE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.
WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST, NW
OVERNIGHT, VEERING NNW AND THEN N AND NE DURING THE DAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS, AND IF CONVECTION
BECOMES CHANCES INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE TOWARD SATURDAY
MORNING.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS LIKELY. W WINDS
GUSTS 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA)
THRESHOLDS WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH SATURDAY.
NEXT POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. MARGINAL WINDS AND SEAS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT,
PRIMARILY ON THE OCEAN. LARGELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES THAT COULD BE REACHED:
FRI, APRIL 17:
KEWR: 68/2002
KBDR: 57/2002
KNYC: 74/2002
KLGA: 73/2002
KJFK: 60/2002
KISP: 61/2002
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...DR
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