819
FXUS61 KOKX 140645
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
245 AM EDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL DRIFT EAST AND AWAY FROM
THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
LOW PRES WAS ANALYZED ABOUT 415 MILES S OF MONTAUK AT 6Z. THERE
WERE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKE OVER THE OCEAN, AS WELL AS INVOF
SERN MA, BUT AS THE LOW DRIFTS EWD TODAY, THE INSTABILITY AXIS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION AS WELL. MOISTURE AND LIFT CONFINED TO
THE LOW LVLS TODAY, SO MAINLY PERIODS OF LGT RAIN AND PERHAPS DZ
EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH THE FLOW CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY DECREASE, IT
WILL STILL BE BREEZY WITH A NE/NNE WIND. BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
CLEARING WILL BE NWRN AND WRN ZONES ESPECIALLY LATE AS DRIER AIR
ADVECTS IN ON NWLY FLOW ALOFT. DESPITE THIS, MUCH OF THE CWA IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVC THRU THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS MODELED TO BE
SLIGHTLY BLW CLIMO. WITH A WELL MIXED LLVL FLOW THE NBM WAS
FOLLOWED.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
MORE SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED TNGT AS NW FLOW DEEPENS
ACROSS THE REGION. IT MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL AFT MIDNIGHT FOR ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA, WHERE THE BEST CHANCES FOR LINGERING LGT
RAIN ARE IN THE EVE. ONCE THE RAIN DOES END, IT LOOKS LIKE IT
REMAINS DRY UNTIL SOME TIME SUN OR LATER. A LGT NW FLOW MAY
ALLOW FOR SOME INTERIOR VALLEY FOG, BUT THE PROB WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE FCST.
A COLD FROPA ON WED. MOISTURE STARVED SO NO PCPN HAS BEEN FCST
ATTM. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED. ALSO SOME FAIR
WX CU POSSIBLE AS TEMPS HIT CONVECTIVE. A NWLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP FACILITATED BY DAYTIME MIXING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NBM
WAS FOLLOWED FOR TEMPS.
COLDER WED NGT WITH A NEW AIRMASS BUILDING IN. THE NBM WAS
FOLLOWED WHICH BRINGS MOST OF THE INTERIOR INTO THE 30S. THE
NUMBERS ARE NOT LOW ENOUGH ATTM FOR WIDESPREAD FROST HOWEVER.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE LONG TERM FCST IS ON TRACK AND THE NBM WAS USED.
KEY MESSAGES:
* DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT NGT. IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH FRIDAY DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND LOW PRESSURE MEANDERING OUT OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC.
* BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S. NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL INTO THE 30S INLAND AND 40S ELSEWHERE.
* MILDER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO
THE NORTH AND THE HIGH BUILDS OVER AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 70S BY SUNDAY.
* A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY.
CIGS CONTINUE TO BE JUST ABOVE 1KFT. WHILE IFR IS STILL POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT, CONFIDENCE IS NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO PREVAIL MVFR AND
PUT IFR IN A TEMPO FOR MOST SITES. RAIN BECOMES MORE SHOWERY IN
NATURE OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. MVFR CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
CATEGORIES IMPROVE TO VFR TUESDAY EVENING WITH A RISING CEILING.
NNE WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 25-30 KT EARLY TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT NYC TERMINALS, LONG ISLAND, AND COASTAL
CONNECTICUT TERMINALS. STRONGEST GUSTS EXPECTED KISP AND KGON.
WINDS BEGIN DECREASING TONIGHT WITH PEAK GUSTS 20-25 KT AT
COASTAL TERMINALS TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY. NORTH WINDS THEN HOLD
STEADY THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH A GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
WIND INTO THE EVENING. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY TUESDAY
EVENING AROUND 23Z-1Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH NOW TO PREVAIL MVFR, BUT IFR STILL
POSSIBLE AND HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN A TEMPO.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR CEILING CHANGES. WIND GUSTS COULD END
UP SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN FORECAST.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS TODAY, EXCEPT FOR THE
CNTRL/ERN OCEAN WHERE A MRGNL GALE REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON. THEREAFTER, A SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN ALL
WEEK, POSSIBLY COMING DOWN ON SAT. ELSEWHERE, A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED AGAIN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WED, LASTING PERHAPS THRU FRI
ON NW WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS EXPECTED.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO RECEDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR SW SUFFOLK, WHERE TIDAL PILING ON THE WESTERN
GREAT SOUTH BAY SHOULD RESULT IN BRIEF MINOR FLOODING WITH THE
HIGH TIDE LATE TONIGHT, THEN MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR AND LOCALLY
MODERATE FLOODING WITH THE HIGH TIDE LATE TUE AFTERNOON.
WATER LEVELS COULD ALSO BRIEFLY TOUCH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS IN
SPOTS LATE TUE AFTERNOON IN S NASSAU, ALSO ALONG TIDAL
WATERWAYS OF NE NJ AND STATEN ISLAND. HIGH SURF UP TO 7 FT
COULD STILL PRODUCE MINOR BEACH EROSION ON THE OCEANFRONT INTO
TUE MORNING. STATEMENTS ISSUED FOR THESE HAZARDS.
AS WINDS AND SEAS BOTH SUBSIDE, TIDAL PILING WILL DIMINISH,
ENDING THE COASTAL FLOOD THREAT THEREAFTER FOR MOST PLACES.
COULDN'T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF/SPOTTY FLOODING ON THE GREAT
SOUTH BAY WITH THE LATE DAY WED HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
FORECAST IS FROM BIAS-CORRECTED 12Z PETSS ENSEMBLE 50%
EXCEEDANCE BASED ON ITS PERFORMANCE DURING THE LAST HIGH TIDE
CYCLE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ080.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SYNOPSIS...JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC/BG
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...JMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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