540
FXUS61 KOKX 232328
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN NASSAU COUNTY
WITH THE FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
FOR THE THURSDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES, A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHWEST SUFFOLK AND
SOUTHERN NASSAU AND A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NYC AND NJ ALONG THE NY HARBOR
THE HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COASTAL STORM LIKELY BRINGS RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS FRIDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANY RAIN IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.
MOSTLY MINOR WIND IMPACTS POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY FOR COASTAL AREAS.
2) COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH FLOODING/EROSION EXPECTED THIS
WEEK, WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
3) A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
SURF CAN NOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED 500MB LOW OVER OR NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN ITS LOCATION,
ANTICIPATING THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK NEAR OR NOT TOO FAR EAST OF
THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK DURING SATURDAY BEFORE MEANDERING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND, THEN SLOWLY DEPARTING DURING MONDAY AS IT
WEAKENS. CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK IS STILL NOT HIGH DUE TO THE
CLOSED/CUTOFF LOW ALOFT, HOWEVER MODEL TRENDS OFFER AT LEAST A
LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE VS 24 HOURS AGO.
KEPT WITH NBM POPS FOR THE MOST PART, BUT FEEL THAT THEY MAY BE A
LITTLE TOO HIGH DURING FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN
CHANCES BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING, AND FOR MAINLY EAST OF THE CITY, RAIN
IS LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE THE
CITY AND POINTS WEST, RAIN CHANCES ARE MOSTLY BELOW 50% THROUGH THE
EVENT, BUT GO ABOVE IT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. STILL THINKING
THAT RAINFALL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE LITTLE TO NONE - JUST LOW CHANCE
FOR FLOODING ACROSS FAR EASTERN ZONES, AND PROBABLY LIMITED TO
MINOR. QPF FORECAST COMBINED WITH FFG VALUES WOULDN'T SUPPORT FLASH
FLOODING. IF MODELS TREND WEST WITH THE STORM TRACK, THEN WESTERN
ZONES COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF MINOR FLOODING. AS FOR WINDS,
ANTICIPATING GUSTS TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS, BUT IT COULD
COME CLOSE ACROSS EASTERN LI AND SE CT LATE DAY FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES OF MOST CONCERN CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE
FRIDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. A BLEND OF ESTOFS, ETSS AND
STEVEN'S 50TH WAS USED WITH THE LATEST TWL FORECAST.
AHEAD OF THE STORM, PERSISTENT NE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTH COULD
HELP TRAP WATER AND ALLOW IT TO PILE THROUGH LATE WEEK,
EXACERBATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL FLOODING. THE MAIN AREAS OF
CONCERN AHEAD OF THE STORM LOOK TO BE PORTIONS OF THE NY HARBOR
AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS DURING TIMES OF HIGH TIDE THURSDAY EVENING
AND FRIDAY MORNING. COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS AND ADVISORIES HAVE
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL ZONES TO BE ADDED IF CONFIDENCE IN MINOR FLOODING
INCREASES FOR OTHER AREAS.
THE GREATEST IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE WITH THE FRIDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. THIS LOOKS TO BE A WIDESPREAD
SOLID MINOR, LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING SITUATION FOR MOST AREAS.
FOR SOUTHERN NASSAU, THERE WAS HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A
WIDESPREAD MODERATE FLOOD EVENT TO ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH.
ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 3
SWELL FROM THE APPROACHING COASTAL STORM WILL BRING A HIGH RIP
CURRENT RISK INTO THE WEEKEND. AN 11-12FT SWELL AROUND 11-12S IS
EXPECTED OUT OF THE EAST. BECAUSE OF THE EASTERLY DIRECTION,
SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT RIGHT AROUND 6-7 FT. IF
CONFIDENCE IN 7 FT SURF INCREASES, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
TO THE SOUTH AND OFFSHORE LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR.
NE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. GUST HOLD AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER GUSTS AFTER 03Z. SOME
OUTLYING TERMINALS SHOULD HAVE GUSTS BECOME MORE OCCASIONAL OR
BRIEFLY END FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW, WINDS
REMAIN NE AT 15-20 KT, WITH GUSTS MAINLY 25-30 KT, ALTHOUGH GUSTS
CLOSER TO 20 KT AT SOME WESTERN TERMINALS. GUSTS SHOULD HOLD INTO
THE EVENING TOMORROW.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NE WINDS 10-15G20-30KT, HIGHEST AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND IN SHOWERS AS A COASTAL
STORM NEARS THE AREA. N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25 TO AROUND 35
KT FRIDAY, HIGHEST EAST OF NYC METROS AND ALONG THE COAST. 30 TO 40
KT POSSIBLE SATURDAY, HIGHEST EAST. WINDS/GUSTS MAY BE UP TO 10 KT
HIGHER THAN FCST IF THE STORM IS CLOSER TO THE AREA.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT, G25-30KT.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, SUB VFR POSSIBLE EARLY EAST. N-NW WINDS 7-15KT,
G20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE SURROUNDING OFFICES, HEADLINES HAVE NOT
BEEN CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
SURROUNDING THE TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE WATERS LATE
THIS WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT SOMEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA COULD BE
THE DIVIDING LINE FROM STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AND GALES DURING THE
FRIDAY-SATURDAY PERIOD. BEING THAT STORM FORCE GUSTS ON THE OUTER
OCEAN WATERS WOULDN'T BEGIN UNTIL SOME POINT IN THE 4TH PERIOD, HAVE
LEFT THE STORM WATCH UP. IN COORDINATION WFO PHI, HAVE NOT EXTENDED
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE INNER OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAYTIME ON
FRIDAY AS THERE'S STILL TIME TO SEE IF STORM FORCE GUSTS LIKELY
REMAIN OUT OF THE WATERS. WITH THAT SAID, GALES ARE LIKELY HERE
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS, THE
GALE WATCH REMAINS POSTED FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE EASTERN
SOUND AND BAYS, BUT IT'S APPEARS IT COULD FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA.
GALES LOOK MORE PROBABLE FOR FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT ON THE NON-
OCEAN WATERS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR NYZ080-179.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR NYZ179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ331-332-340-345.
GALE WATCH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ331-332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ380-383-385.
STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ380-383-385.
DISCUSSION...JC/JT
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JC
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