777  
FXUS61 KOKX 290809  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
409 AM EDT FRI MAR 29 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE ATLANTIC TODAY, TRACKING WELL  
EAST OF CAPE COD THEN INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES TONIGHT. A  
WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PASS THRU THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. A  
SERIES OF WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK CLOSE TO THE  
AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE  
WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY INTO  
TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT  
THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
LOW PRES TAKING SHAPE OVER THE ATLC WILL DEEPEN AND CONTINUE TO  
TRACK AWAY FROM THE REGION THRU TNGT. THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD  
AGREEMENT WITH THIS EAST OF THE BENCHMARK LOW, SO THE BLEND WAS  
FOLLOWED.  
 
EXTREME ERN AREAS WILL SEE THE RAIN HANG ON THRU 12Z BEFORE  
COMPLETELY TAPERING OFF. NW FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE  
AREA THRU THE DAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH BASED ON A BLEND OF  
THE GFS AND NAM. THE GFS IS STRONGER THRU THE COLUMN, SO GUSTS  
COULD MAX OUT AROUND 40 MPH IF THE STRONGER SOLN VERIFIES. STEEP  
LAPSE RATES AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD COMBINE TO PRODUCE SOME HIGH  
BASED FLATTENING CU IN THE AFTN. THIS COULD SERVE TO REDUCE THE  
GUST POTENTIAL. PEAK WINDS ALOFT COME IN AROUND 00Z PER THE  
GFS, BUT THIS IS COUNTERBALANCED BY THE COOLING BL. CONTINUED  
BREEZY OVERNIGHT BUT BLW WIND ADVY EXPECTED ATTM.  
 
DESPITE H85 TEMPS AROUND -4C, DEEP MIXING PRODUCES HIGH TEMPS  
RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S MOST PLACES TNGT DUE  
TO THE WINDS AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE 30S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A WEAK FRONTAL SYS MAY IMPACT THE CWA LATE SAT AND SAT NGT. THE  
MODELS STILL DO NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON IT, WITH THE NBM ONLY  
PRODUCING POPS AROUND 20. THE GFS REMAINS THE SRN OUTLIER WHEN  
COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECMWF. PROBS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO LOW IN  
THE NBM, ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT IS A LIGHT QPF EVENT, BUT DID NOT  
MANUALLY ADJUST FOR NOW WITH THE GFS STAYING SOUTH.  
 
IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WINDY ON SAT, ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF  
OF THE DAY, THEN WINDS BACK TO THE W AND WEAKEN A BIT. STILL  
BREEZY THOUGH WITH A WELL MIXED AIRMASS.  
 
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AND DEEP MIXING PROMOTES HIGHS ABV NORMAL.  
HIGHS NEAR 60 POSSIBLE NERN NJ AND NYC. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE  
LI AND SRN CT OVERPERFORMS THE GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY BASED ON  
THE WLY FLOW. DID NOT STRAY FROM THE NBM YET, BUT THE NUMBERS  
COULD BE OFF BY AT LEAST 5 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE  
SHORE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM AND STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO  
THE NBM/PREVIOUS FORECAST.  
 
A NEARLY ZONAL CONTINUES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WAVE  
PASSING NEARBY THE AREA.  
 
AN UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE  
COUNTRY MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY NIGHT  
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW  
THAT SENDS A WARM FRONT TOWARD THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,  
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY. THE SURFACE LOW  
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT WILL SLOW AS IT MOVES EASTWARD,  
SO EXPECTING A RATHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH AT  
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE SOME TIMING AND  
EVOLUTION DIFFERENCES, BUT OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN AN UNSETTLED  
PERIOD COMING UP. DRIER WEATHER BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE  
END OF THE WEEK AS THE LOW DEPARTS.  
 
THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AND EASTERLY FLOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE  
WEEK WILL RESULT IN COOL, DAMP CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR  
JUST BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS, BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR LOWS DUE  
TO CLOUD COVER.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
 
 
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TRACKS UP THE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WITH HIGH  
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.  
 
RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING  
WHERE THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO COME TO AN END AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER  
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.  
 
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CAN NOT RULE OUT A BRIEF  
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGON WHERE SOME LEFTOVER RAIN  
CONTINUES.  
 
NW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE  
NW GUSTS INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 25-30KT FOR MUCH  
OF THE DAY. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.  
 
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...  
 
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.  
 
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR DURING THE DAY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR AT  
NIGHT, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SNOW FOR KSWF. W WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT  
DAY. GUSTS DIMINISH AT NIGHT.  
 
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO  
EARLY EVENING.  
 
MONDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.  
 
TUESDAY: RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. E WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
GUSTY NW FLOW BECOMING W ON SAT. A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL  
WATERS THRU SAT AS A RESULT. THE WINDS DIMINISH SAT NGT AND SUN,  
ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE ON THE OCEAN.  
 
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS ON MONDAY. THE NEXT  
CHANCE FOR A SCA WILL BE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN A  
STRENGTHENING EASTERLY FLOW.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ331-332-  
335-338-340-345-350-353-355.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...BC/JMC  
NEAR TERM...JMC  
SHORT TERM...JMC  
LONG TERM...BC  
AVIATION...BC  
MARINE...BC/JMC  
HYDROLOGY...BC/JMC  
 
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