879
FXUS61 KOKX 231957
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
357 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONGOING
CLOUDS/SHOWERS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN LATER TONIGHT. LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS THROUGH EARLY EVENING CAN LEAD TO SOME PONDING ON
ROADS IN URBAN AREAS.
2. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUE TO
PRESS EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON THAT WILL TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR FAR
EASTERLY LONG ISLAND BETWEEN 02Z-04Z. WITH A VERY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE STILL IN PLACE (PWATS ARE CURRENTLY ANALYZED BETWEEN
1.50 AND 2 INCHES), LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE THAT CAN
LEAD TO SOME PONDING ON ROADWAYS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE URBAN
AREAS. THE RISK FOR ANY LIGHTNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING IS VERY
LOW AS WHAT LITTLE INSTABILITY THERE IS IS MOSTLY OFF TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD COASTAL DELMARVA AND OFF THE JERSEY SHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT SETTING UP A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A GOOD DEAL
OF SUNSHINE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LEADING TO THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. POPS INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SEEMS TO RIDE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT COLD THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW
QUICKLY CONDITIONS IMPROVE WITH THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF
THE BOUNDARY. OUTSIDE ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS, SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE OR HYDROLOGICAL HAZARDS APPEAR UNLIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS THEN IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY SUNDAY, WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVING PROGRESSED
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. THEREAFTER, MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST
BEGINS TO AMPLIFY, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE INCREASING TEMPERATURES
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE 80S, AND PERHAPS LOWER
90S FOR PARTS OF THE URBAN NYC METRO, LOOK LIKELY INTO MID NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS TOWARDS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH ANY LINGERING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS AT EASTERN TERMINALS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS KGON, WHERE IFR CEILINGS
MAY LINGER LONGER THAN FORECAST AND A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 02-06Z.
NNW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL DROP TO 5 KT OR LESS OVERNIGHT AT
OUTLYING TERMINALS. WINDS THEN BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE NW AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE DUE TO VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: VFR.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT NIGHT WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS, BECOMING LIKELY LATE NORTH AND
WEST OF NYC. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT
AFTERNOON INTO EVE.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AT TIMES.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RIP CURRENTS:
A MODERATE RISK IS EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS TURN OFFSHORE, BUT LINGERING 2 TO 3 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS
CONTINUE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DK
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...DK
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