497
FXUS61 KOKX 212348
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
748 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
POTENTIAL FOR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRATIFORM RAIN. ANY FLOODING
WILL BE OF THE MINOR NUISANCE VARIETY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOL AND WET FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
2) WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY NOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW OVER THE NORTHEAST, BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE POLAR JET, WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY, THUS ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST TO GRADUALLY RETREAT OFFSHORE. AT THE
SAME TIME, A SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MID AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL ALLOW SUBTROP JET MOISTURE AND ENERGY
TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD IN TANDEM WITH A WARM FRONT AND MULTIPLE
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE. RAIN WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA
SATURDAY, FROM SW TO NE, LIKELY PERSISTING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE DRYING OUT WEST TO EAST. RAIN COULD VERY WELL LINGER
INTO THE EVENING HOURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN LI/SE CT.
THIS WILL BE A STRATIFORM RAIN EVENT (NON-CONVECTIVE), WITH MAX
RAINFALL RATES TOPPING OUT AT 2 TO 3 TENTHS AN HOUR. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SEEM UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1 TO JUST UNDER 2 INCHES,
HIGHEST ACROSS LI AND THE NYC METRO. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES ARE ABOUT 40-50 PERCENT ACROSS THIS SAME
AREA, FALLING OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTH.
GUSTY E WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND (20 TO 30 MPH SUNDAY), ALONG
WITH THE RAIN WILL KEEP HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. THIS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST MIDWEEK. THIS WILL HELP BRING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER/MID 80S FOR
HIGHS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, 12Z GLOBALS ARE POINTING
TOWARD AN UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF OVER THE NORTHEAST INTO
EASTERN CANADA WED INTO THU. SHOULD THIS SCENARIO BECOME THE
SOLUTION IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS OF THE GUIDANCE, MUCH COOLER
CONDITIONS WILL BE ON TAP. THIS IS NOT REFLECTED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA THRU FRI AS A FRONTAL
SYSTEM STAYS TO THE S.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT S TO SE WINDS AT AROUND 5 KT OR LESS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FOR MOST LOCATIONS LATER THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT
TO THE NE 5-10 KT LATER TONIGHT, THEN SHIFT TO THE E TO ESE
LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SATURDAY: BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS. E-NE WIND GUSTS
15-20 KT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS. E-NE WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT
DURING THE DAY, 20-30 KT OVERNIGHT, MAINLY FOR METRO AND COASTAL
TERMINALS.
MONDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS.
TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS WITH
INCREASING E FLOW BRINGING WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE POSSIBLE. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD
TO TO WILL ALSO BUILD TO 7-10 FT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA LEVELS LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT OCEAN SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...DW
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