279
FXUS61 KOKX 200251
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
951 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO INLAND
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BECOMING PLAIN RAIN LATE
FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE
COAST.
2) THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH INTO LATE TODAY WILL
RETREAT TONIGHT, WITH SOME COLD AIR DAMMING REMAINING IN PLACE
INLAND.
A NORTHERN BRANCH LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. AS WEAK DOWNSTREAM UPPER
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST. SOUTHERN
BRANCH ENERGY, WILL THEN APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST, WITH A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
SOUTH ON FRIDAY, THAT SHOULD PASS TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY EVENING.
CAM'S CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL
DAYBREAK FRIDAY, WHILE GLOBAL MODELS ARE QUICKER. WITH THESE
UNCERTAINTIES HAVE CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH NBM POP. WITH COLD
AIR DAMMING IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WARM AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT, THERMAL PROFILES WERE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR W ORANGE, ORANGE, AND
PUTNAM FOR VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING, AND SOME AREAS
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THERE (HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW
BERGEN/ROCKLAND/WESTCHESTER AND THE I-84 CORRIDOR OF INTERIOR SW
CT) COULD SEE SOME SPOTTY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. THERE IS
ALSO A CHANCE OF SLEET AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXED AT TIMES,
WITH ACCUMULATION LESS THAN AN INCH. FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT, PROFILES WERE INDICATING MORE
SNOW MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO RAIN SNOW AND RAIN, AND
PERHAPS SOME SLEET. AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE INTERIOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH RETREATS, PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FRI NIGHT AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH LOW
WELL TO THE WEST ELONGATES AND TRACKS TO THE NORTH, AND AS THE
SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE INLAND ON SAT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON A STRONG OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST,
BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH HOW CLOSE THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR AREA. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN
MULTIPLE STREAMS/UPPER LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
SOME THINGS TO NOTE ABOUT THE LATEST AVAILABLE 12Z GUIDANCE: THE
GFS NORTHWEST TREND HAS COME TO A HALT, WITH THE LATEST RUN
TICKING A BIT FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE GFS STILL REMAINS THE
CLOSEST TO THE COAST WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A VERY WET SOLUTION.
LATEST ICON AND CANADIAN HAVE TRENDED FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVING US
A DRIER SOLUTION. SOMETHING ELSE TO NOTE WHICH HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN THE EPS ENSEMBLE IS THAT THROUGH THE LAST 3 RUNS
(18Z 2/18 - 06Z 2/19) THERE HAS BEEN A PRETTY LARGE CLUSTER OF
MEMBER LOWS THAT ARE LYING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE MEAN LOW
LOCATION. THIS GIVES SOME CONFIDENCE TO AN EVENTUAL CONTINUED
NORTHWEST TREND EVEN THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN ONE
OF THE FARTHER/DRIER SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST 12Z RUN HOWEVER HAS
ACTUALLY HAD A SLIGHT TICK TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS A TREND
WORTH MONITORING.
GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY HAVE STUCK CLOSE TO THE NBM WITH
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS
AND WIND/WIND GUSTS FROM THE PREVIOUS NBM RUNS. NBM
PROBABILITIES IN SNOWFALL HAVE ALSO INCREASED. THE OPERATIONAL
NBM (4.3) HAS A 40-50% CHANCE OF ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL
(3-6INCHES) FOR NORTHEAST NJ, NYC AND LONG ISLAND AND 30% CHANCE
FOR LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH. AS FOR WARNING LEVEL (6+ INCHES),
25 TO 30% CHANCE FOR NYC AND LONG ISLAND AND 20% ELSEWHERE. IT
IS WORTH NOTING THOUGH THAT THE EXPERIMENTAL NBM (5.0) HAS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS THE BOARD BY ABOUT 5- 10%.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH TONIGHT'S
GUIDANCE AS ONE OF THE MANY PLAYERS IS NOW OVER THE CONUS UPPER
AIR NETWORK AND MAY BE SAMPLED BETTER. THIS IS A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY DIVING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/MID
LEVEL CLOSE LOW FARTHER NORTH IN CANADA. THIS INTERACTION COULD
BE IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE NORTHERN ENERGY MAY END UP BEING THE
MAIN DRIVER THAT DIGS DOWN AND HELPS SPIN UP THE SURFACE LOW.
MINOR COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, DEPENDENT ON LOW TRACK AND INTENSITY.
AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. CIGS COULD DROP TO
AROUND 3000 FT AT TIMES MAINLY WRN TERMINALS. PRECIPITATION THEN
MOVES IN TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
EXPECT MAINLY RAIN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND KGON TERMINALS. IMPROVEMENT
BEGINS GENERALLY AFT 2-3Z SAT.
ENE WINDS TONIGHT VEER TO THE E WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20 KT BY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS BECOME WNW FRI NGT AFT 2-3Z BUT SPEEDS
LIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CIGS AROUND 3000 FT POSSIBLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY EWR
AND TEB.
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES FRIDAY MORNING MAY VARY BY 1
TO 2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT: WINDS BECOMING WNW WITH CIGS/VIS IMPROVING.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR TO START. MVFR OR LOWER IN A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN
THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY. E/NE WINDS G15-20 KT. WINDS COULD BE
STRONGER DEPENDING ON COASTAL LOW TRACK.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW. N WINDS G20-25 KT. WINDS COULD BE
STRONGER DEPENDING ON COASTAL LOW TRACK.
TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST
DAYTIME FRI, AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. SEAS
RUNNING 5 FT ATTM SHOULD LAST INTO THIS EVENING, WITH A SHORTER
LULL EXPECTED BEFORE RETURNING TO 5-6 FT DAYTIME FRI. A FEW
GUSTS MAY ALSO REACH 25 KT IN E FLOW ON THE OCEAN DAYTIME FRI.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
PASSING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE HWO FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
THE WESTERN LI SOUND AND NY HARBOR. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM FIRE
ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT. THERE AFTER THE NEXT CHANCE FOR
ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS SCA
CONDITIONS TO THE OCEAN WATERS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
NYZ067-068.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST FRIDAY FOR
NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ355.
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