629
FXUS61 KOKX 300123
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
923 PM EDT WED APR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WHILE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TOO FAR
SOUTH AND EAST TO BRING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE AREA, RAIN
CHANCES HAVE INCREASED SOME SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) RAIN EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO A PORTION OF THURSDAY MORNING.
2) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS MAY BE TOUCHED ACROSS THE
MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ACROSS THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE
BACK BAYS AND COASTAL FAIRFIELD COUNTY CT THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY EVENING.
3) SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AROUND THE PROXIMITY OF AN OFFSHORE
COASTAL LOW DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN ON SATURDAY, MORE SO
ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ADDITIONAL BENEFICIAL RAIN IS MOVING IN THIS EVENING. RAINFALL
TOTALS SHOULD RANGE ANYWHERE FROM JUST OVER 1/4 INCH TO AS MUCH
AS 3/4 INCH. THIS SHOULD FURTHER AID TO ALLEVIATE ABNORMALLY
DRY TO MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN MOST PORTIONS
OF THE AREA. EARLIER CAM GUIDANCE CONSENSUS HAD THE SYSTEM
MOVING AWAY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR COMING
IN ON A NW WIND WHICH INCREASES SOMEWHAT TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ON THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP IN THE NW
FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND WILL
BE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED, THUS A PREDOMINANTLY DRY
STRETCH OF WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FROM LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WATER LEVELS THIS EVENING PEAKED JUST BELOW MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLDS ON THE BACK BAYS OF S NASSAU COUNTY. THE SAME IS
ALSO EXPECTED FOR THE HIGH TIDE LATE THIS EVENING FOR S
FAIRFIELD CT, AND FOR THOSE AREAS THU EVENING.
KEY MESSAGE 3
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THE LATE
PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY RESULTING IN THE
FORMATION AND DEEPENING OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. ALL GUIDANCE TRACKS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NOT BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN OR WIND IMPACTS, BUT SOME BRING IT CLOSE ENOUGH
FOR CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS.
LATEST NBM AND LREF GUIDANCE SHOW ABOUT 1/4 INCH QPF FOR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND THEN DECREASING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, WITH
ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FOR THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW STRATUS HAS MOVED IN EARLY THIS EVENING AT KJFK AND IS
CLOSE AT KISP. OTHERWISE STILL SEEING MVFR COND WITH RAIN
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE OVERNIGHT, WITH
WIDESPREAD IFR AFTER 06Z AND LOCAL LIFR COND EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING. AFTER COLD FROPA ON THU, COND SHOULD
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
SHIFTING NW AND REMAINING UNDER 10 KT.
..NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY
EXACT TIMING OF LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES UNCERTAIN, WITH
AMENDMENTS LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLD
EMBEDDED TSTM OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE AT THE NYC
METROS MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
FRIDAY: VFR WITH NW FLOW 10-20 KT.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WITH MVFR COND MAINLY E OF THE
NYC METROS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A PROLONGED STRETCH OF 5-FT SEAS IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE OCEAN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, ALONG WITH A
PERIOD OF MARGINAL 25-KT GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. THUS, HAVE INCLUDED THE WESTERN OCEAN FOR MARGINAL
ADVISORY LEVEL SEAS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR AN OFFSHORE LOW TO TREND CLOSER TO THE AREA
AND BRING 5-FT SEAS AND 25-KT GUSTS TO THE OCEAN WATERS SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, MAINLY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...JE/JT
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JE/JT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page