748
FXUS61 KOKX 071830
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
130 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH WEAKENS
AND SHIFTS OFFSHORE AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM PASSES TO THE NORTH TUESDAY
NIGHT. A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS MAY THEN IMPACT THE AREA MID TO LATE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE DRIFTS OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE CENTER
OF THE LOW PASSES NORTH, BUT ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE REGION THIS EVENING, MOVING THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST
TOWARD AND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. DRY AIR AND LIMITED
FORCING WILL KEEP THE REGION DRY WITH THE FROPA, ABSENT A STRAY
FLURRY OR TWO WELL INLAND.
FLOW TURNS NW AS WINDS KICK UP BEHIND IT, AND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, PERSISTING INTO THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
FALL BACK INTO THE TEENS INLAND, AND THE 20S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
KEY POINTS:
* ARCTIC AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY, LEADING TO
SUBFREEZING DAYTIME HIGHS AND WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS AT TIMES.
* A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY INLAND, AS LOW PRESSURE
PASSES NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST INTO THE EARLY MORNING, AND RESULTANT
FLOW BEHIND IT USHERS IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS ONCE AGAIN, SETTING
UP THE COLDEST DAY FOR THE REGION SINCE FEBRUARY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB FROM WHERE THEY START THE DAY
GIVEN THE CAA, AND 925 MB TEMPS FALL BELOW -10C, WHICH SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ONLY INTO THE MID 20S AWAY
FROM THE COAST, AND STRUGGLING TO CRACK 30 EVEN ALONG IT. DESPITE
A SOLID 15 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY, DAILY RECORDS DO NOT
APPEAR IN JEOPARDY. BLUSTERY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING,
WILL ENHANCE THE COLD FEELING, AND WIND CHILLS START OUT IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS, THEN LIKELY HANG NEAR OR BELOW 20
THROUGH THE DAY. CONTINUED TO BLEND IN THE NBM90 FOR WINDS GIVEN
THE GUIDANCE'S LOW BIAS IN THESE REGIMES. PEAK GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH LIKELY, GRADUALLY LOWERING THROUGH THE DAY. THE
GUSTIEST OF THE WINDS DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE DAY, AND FLOW MAY
LIGHTEN ENOUGH OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY AM TO ALLOW FOR MORE
EFFICIENT RADIATIVE COOLING. BLENDED IN CONSMOS TO TRY AND
BETTER CAPTURE THIS POTENTIAL, WITH SINGLE DIGITS LIKELY INLAND,
AND TEENS ALONG THE COAST.
THE OVERHEAD HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY, WITH
RETURN FLOW SETTING UP. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODERATING
TEMPERATURES, AND HIGHS SHOULD RISE BACK INTO THE LOWER 40S
ALONG THE COAST, THOUGH REMAINING FAIRLY COLD INLAND WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ONLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S.
PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO BEGIN TO TURN MORE ACTIVE, AS THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE
TRANSLATING EAST, WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PASSING THE
REGION TO THE NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD INTRODUCE THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION, BUT NORTHERLY TRACK LOOKS TO
PRECLUDE MUCH LOCALLY; PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY INLAND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
NBM WAS FOLLOWED WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO WINDS.
KEY POINTS:
* A WINTRY MIX WITH LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION INLAND PROBABLE ON
WEDNESDAY.
* TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT ON WEDNESDAY,
WHEN THEY'LL BE NEAR NORMAL.
* CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW WARNING AND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
LOOKS LIKE A BETTER THAN 50% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN FOR THE NW ZONES ON WEDNESDAY. BELOW 1 INCH OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION PROBABLE BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO RAIN. RAIN OTHERWISE
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN CHANCES AT 40-50%.
THURSDAY HAS TRENDED DRIER WITH NO PRECIP FORECAST. STILL A PRETTY
GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER REGARDING POTENTIAL FRONTS,
WEAK LOWS, AND UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT MAY TRIGGER PRECIPITATION. IT
IS HOWEVER BEGINNING TO APPEAR THAT FRIDAY HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
REMAINING DRY. AN UPPER LOW MAY THEN HELP GENERATE PRECIP ON
SATURDAY WITH A WEAKER DISTURBANCE FOLLOWING ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP
WITH NBM POPS OF DRY WEATHER ON SUNDAY AND BELOW 50% ON SATURDAY.
SHOULD PRECIP OCCUR ON SATURDAY, THERMAL PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT SNOW
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT, CLEARING THE COASTAL TERMINALS BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY.
VFR.
A LIGHT WNW/NW TO VARIABLE WIND CONTINUES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
BUT IS BEGINNING TO BACK AROUND TO THE SW AT AROUND 10 KT.
WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE WSW THIS EVENING AND BECOME NW-N
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, INCREASING TO 10-15 KT
G20-25 KT. SOME GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE POSSIBLE. N WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO DIMINISH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FRONT COULD VARY BY 1-2 HOURS AND THE ONSET
OF NW GUSTS COULD BE DELAYED A FEW HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY: VFR. NW-N GUSTS 20-25 KT. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY: VFR. SW GUSTS 15-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW ACROSS
INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY EARLY. THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. S-SW GUSTS 20-25KT POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: VFR. W GUSTS 20 KT.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR POSSIBLE IN ANY RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) GOES INTO EFFECT ON ALL WATERS AT 1 AM MONDAY FOR 30
KT WIND GUSTS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 5
TO 6 FEET MONDAY MORNING, PERSISTING THROUGH AFTERNOON. WINDS
LIGHTEN BY LATE DAY, AND SUB SCA CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL WATERS
MONDAY EVENING.
GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST ON THE OCEAN WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH. ADVISORY-LEVEL CONDITIONS
OTHERWISE PREVAIL ON ALL WATERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
ELEVATED SEAS THEN REMAIN ON THE OCEAN IN SPITE OF DIMINISHING
WINDS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT. FRIDAY SHOULD THEN FEATURE SUB-
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS, BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
OF 25KT GUSTS ON THE OCEAN.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JC/DR
NEAR TERM...RAMUNNI
SHORT TERM...RAMUNNI
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JC/DR
HYDROLOGY...JC/DR
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