171
FXUS61 KOKX 181141
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 AM EDT THU APR 18 2019
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH TODAY BEFORE LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
NEEDED.
HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS OFF THE EAST COAST AS A WARM
FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY. WHILE THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY NOT LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA UNTIL TONIGHT, THE WARM
ADVECTION COULD GENERATE LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE.
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY AS GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO ABOUT A TEN DEGREE SPREAD IN HIGHS, LIKELY DUE TO
THE DIFFERENCES IN CLOUD COVER AND FOG. TEMPERATURES COULD BE
HIGHER THAN FORECAST IF THERE IS LESS CLOUD COVER, AND A FEW
DEGREES COOLER IF MORE FOG DEVELOPS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT, AND WITH PROLONGED
ONSHORE FLOW, LOW LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN SATURATED ENOUGH TO KEEP
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH TEMPERATURES
STAYING IN THE 50S OVERNIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL START OFF WITH
AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE WHICH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COAST. STEADY RAIN WILL MOVE IN FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2 INCHES. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SPC HAS PLACED THE
REGION IN A GENERAL RISK, THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDER. GUSTY WINDS UP TO OR AROUND 45 MPH COULD OCCUR
ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORM WHERE STRONGER WINDS COULD MIX
DOWN.
THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN EXIT THE AREA SOMETIME SATURDAY
EVENING THOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHAT TIME
IT FULLY CLEARS THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THERE WILL BE THE ASSOCIATED PARENT LOW THAT WILL BE MOVING
NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL BRING
A SURFACE TROUGH TOWARDS THE REGION BUT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS GOING SATURDAY NIGHT AND EVEN SUNDAY AS ALOFT THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL BE MOVING ACROSS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. HIGH PRESSURE
STAYS MAINLY NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL CHANCES OF RAIN SHOWERS BUT CHANCES ARE
LOWER WITHOUT AS MUCH TIME DURATION AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
HEAVY RAIN WITH THE SHOWERS. MUCH OF THE TIME EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK COULD VERY WELL STAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS ARE FORECAST MAINLY
IN THE 60S EXCEPT N/W OF NYC IN LOWER 70S FRIDAY AND MONDAY.
FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE LOWS FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT, SUNDAY NIGHT, AND MONDAY NIGHT
ARE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT NEXT
WEEK ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES AND LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION
TODAY.
VFR TO START, THEN CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES. LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SE 10-15KT
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT.
THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FOG THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE NYC TERMINALS, WHICH LOWERS VISIBILITIES TO 1 MILE OR
LESS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS, HOWEVER SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE FRONT NEVER LIFTS NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS. IF THIS OCCURS, EXPECT MVFR/IFR FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
LLWS DEVELOPS FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS AROUND 00Z.
..NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KJFK HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KLGA HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS YELLOW...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 4-6SM OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP TAF COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY TODAY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. UNCERTAINTY ON FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. GUSTY
S WINDS 25-30 KT. WINDS DECREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUNDAY
MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
MONDAY
VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
MARINE
A SCA IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY AS SE
WINDS INCREASE TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT.
PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BUILD SEAS THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA ON FRIDAY TO INCLUDE ALL WATERS. THE SCA
WINDS COULD LINGER INTO SATURDAY BUT WOULD BE MAINLY FOR THE
OCEAN. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY BELOW SCA SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. REGARDING SEAS, BELOW SCA FOR NON- OCEAN
WATERS THROUGH THE MARINE LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT) BUT PROBABLE FOR SCA FOR ALL OCEAN WATERS THE WHOLE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOOKING AHEAD, ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY RAIN
AS PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH BETWEEN 1.5 AND 2
INCHES. THERE WILL BE A LOW CHANCE OF FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN, LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST RANGE FROM
AROUND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH THE BULK OF IT FALLING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WHILE CHANCES OF RAIN REMAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THERE DOES NOT APPEAR A THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES FROM A FULL MOON, AND INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MINOR TO POTENTIALLY LOCALLY
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF BROOKLYN,
QUEENS, NASSAU AND FAIRFIELD COUNTIES WITH THIS EVENINGS HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. WILL ISSUE A COASTAL FLOOD ADVSY FOR THESE AREAS.
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1/2 TO 1 FOOT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE COMMON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF WATER LEVELS REACHING OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE OF NASSAU COUNTY, BUT IT'S NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
WARRANT A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING. LOCATIONS ALONG WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING, THUS HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HERE.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE SIMILAR FRI EVE, ALTHOUGH SURGE IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1/2 FT LESS, THUS WILL HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AT THIS TIME SINCE IT MAY BE
VERY LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF
BROOKLYN, QUEENS AND/OR NASSAU COUNTIES.
EQUIPMENT
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF
THE AIR.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR CTZ009.
NY...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NYZ075-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ330-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
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