600
FXUS61 KOKX 021930
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
330 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY.
THIS LEVEL OF HEAT CAN BE DEADLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING AND HYDRATION, ESPECIALLY WITH THE LITTLE OVERNIGHT
RELIEF EXPECTED. IMPACTS TO TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE AND
ELECTRICAL AND WATER SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE.
2) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANY
STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE
HAIL, AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
3) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ALL LOCAL OCEAN
BEACHES (SEE MARINE SECTION).
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-108 RANGE HAVE BEEN RECORDED
TODAY. THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE ON FRI.
THIS LEVEL OF HEAT CAN BE DEADLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE
COOLING AND HYDRATION. IMPACTS TO TRANSPORTATION (RAIL, BRIDGE,
ROAD/TARMAC) INFRASTRUCTURE AND ELECTRICAL (HIGH DEMAND
ELECTRICAL) AND WATER SYSTEMS (OPEN HYDRANTS REDUCING WATER
PRESSURE) HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH PREVIOUS HEAT EVENTS OF THIS
SEVERITY AND DURATION. ON AVERAGE, HEAT KILLS MORE PEOPLE THAN
ANY OTHER WEATHER-RELATED HAZARD.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE HEAT FORECAST, WITH THE WARNING IN
PLACE THRU INDEPENDENCE DAY. WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY IN PLACE,
ALL AREAS ARE FORECAST TO HIT A HEAT INDEX OF AROUND 110 ON FRI.
THOSE NUMBERS DROP A LITTLE ON SAT INTO ROUGHLY THE 100-106
RANGE WITH LOWER THICKNESSES.
THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER WITH ENDING THE HEAT ON SUN,
WITH THE MEX NOW KEEPING TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AS FLOW VEERS
FROM THE N TO THE SE AND SKIES REMAIN BKN-OVC ABV 10KFT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ENVIRONMENT, SO THE
BLENDED APPROACH WAS MAINTAINED. HIGHS MON LOOK TO BE AROUND
80.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE NAM HAS GOTTEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TSTM CHANCES BOTH
FRI AND SAT WITH NW FLOW ACTIVITY. SPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA (WRN
2/3) IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR FRI, AND MOST OF THE AREA (FURTHEST
EAST AREAS EXCLUDED) IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SAT.
TIMING ON FRI IS MAINLY EVE AND OVERNIGHT ATTM, AND MOST LIKELY
A BIT EARLIER ON SAT. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME EARLIER ACTIVITY EACH
DAY IF SOMETHING CAN TRIGGER. OVERALL, EARLIEST CHANCES ARE THE
FARTHER NW YOU GO IN THE FCST AREA.
THE PRIMARY THREAT REMAINS DAMAGING WINDS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT
LARGE HAIL OR EVEN LOCALIZED TO ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WITH STORM CLUSTERING. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE
SHOULD THIS OCCUR OVER THE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE URBAN METROS.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS SUN WITH A WAVE COMING
IN FROM THE WEST. THIS HOWEVER COULD BE SLOW ENOUGH TO HOLD MOST
OF THE PCPN OFF UNTIL SUN NIGHT OR MON PER THE AI-GFS. THIS SYS
COULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES GOING INTO TUE.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
MORNING HAZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBDR AND KGON.
S-SW FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENTS AT
LGA AND JFK. WINDS THEN DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT WNW AGAIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH W-SW FLOW RETURNING FRIDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AN OCCASIONAL GUST 20-25KT ALSO POSSIBLE AT KJFK FROM ABOUT
21Z-01Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY: MOSTLY VFR. W WINDS G15-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEABREEZE LIKELY AT KJFK AND KISP, AND MAY MOVE THROUGH KLGA
LATE IN THE DAY. AN ISOLATED LATE DAY OR EVENING TSTM WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY: W WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS. MVFR OR LOWER
COND POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY: SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY. MVFR OR LOWER
COND AT TIMES.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THRU THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSTM DEVELOPMENT THRU THE
PERIOD WHICH COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS AT TIMES,
PARTICULARLY FRI AND SAT EVE.
SEAS MAY BUILD CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS ON THE OCEAN TUE.
RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL LOCAL OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
SW FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT AND 4-5 FT 6S PERIOD SWELLS DRIVE THIS
RISK. LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SWELLS DROP THE RISK TO MODERATE
FOR FRIDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 2:
KEWR: 103/1901
KBDR: 100/1966
KNYC: 100/1966
KLGA: 101/1966
KJFK: 101/1966
KISP: 99/1966
JULY 3:
KEWR: 105/1966
KBDR: 99/1966
KNYC: 103/1966
KLGA: 107/1966
KJFK: 104/1966
KISP: 104/1966
JULY 4:
KEWR: 105/1949
KBDR: 98/1949
KNYC: 102/1949
KLGA: 100/1949
KJFK: 101/2010
KISP: 97/2010
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 2:
KEWR: 79/2022
KBDR: 73/2022
KNYC: 82/1901
KLGA: 78/2002
KJFK: 74/2018
KISP: 74/2014
JULY 3:
KEWR: 82/2002
KBDR: 75/2002
KNYC: 82/2002
KLGA: 81/1966
KJFK: 78/2002
KISP: 76/2018
JULY 4:
KEWR: 81/2002
KBDR: 80/2002
KNYC: 81/2002
KLGA: 82/1999
KJFK: 80/2002
KISP: 76/2002
JULY 5:
KEWR: 81/1999
KBDR: 74/2018
KNYC: 82/1999
KLGA: 86/1999
KJFK: 80/1999
KISP: 78/1999
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ004-006-
103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page