709
FXUS61 KOKX 160922
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
422 AM EST SUN NOV 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS INTO ATLANTIC CANADA EARLY
THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE PLAINS. A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY NIGHT,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MIDWEEK BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE LATE
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
RAIN QUICKLY TAPERS EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND A COLD FROPA AS
THE SURFACE LOW PULLS NORTH INTO NEW ENGLAND AND STACKS WITH THE
UPPER LOW. HEIGHTS THEN FALL THROUGH THE DAY AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS OVER THE NORTHEAST.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE ADVECTING COLD POOL ALOFT
SHOULD ALLOW DEEP BL MIXING TOWARD 750 MB, AND INCREASED FLOW
GIVEN THE LOW'S TIGHTENING PRESSURE FIELD WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY
CLOSE TO THE WEEKEND. WNW FLOW INCREASES THIS MORNING, AND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. LIKELY SEE PEAK GUSTS TOWARD 50 MPH IN SOME
LOCALES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, THOUGH EXTENT AND CONFIDENCE
DOES NOT WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY AS OF THIS UPDATE. THIS
THINKING MATCHES 00Z HREF GUIDANCE, INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONGER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST AND ELEVATED AREAS OF THE
HUDSON/RAMAPO HIGHLANDS. BLENDED IN NBM90 TO BETTER ALIGN WITH
THESE ANTICIPATED GUST SPEEDS.
WITH THE CAA FROM THE NORTHWEST, TEMPERATURES TODAY LIKELY
REMAIN STEADY, IF NOT FALL SLIGHTLY, FROM WHERE THEY START THIS
MORNING IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. AND WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY REMAINS DRY FOR MOST ONCE THE EARLY MORNING RAIN EXITS,
CAN'T RULE OF A FEW STREAMERS MAKING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST GIVEN THE STRONG FLOW, LL LAPSE RATES, AND SPOKES OF
ENERGY WORKING AROUND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH. CONTINUED TO NUDGE
POPS UP OVER THE NATIONAL BLEND, CLOSER TO MAV GUIDANCE, WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE (15-25 PERCENT) FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY CAMS,
WITH THE 6Z HRRR AND 3KM NAM REFLECTIVITY DEPICTING SEVERAL OF
THESE STREAMERS WORKING INTO AT LEAST INLAND. DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY MILD SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOWERING THICKNESSES
THROUGH THE DAY COULD ALLOW SOME WET SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH ANY PRECIP AT THE COAST MORE
LIKELY TO FALL AS RAIN. ABSENT A BRIEF HEAVIER SHOWER, IMPACTS
WILL BE MINIMAL REGARDLESS. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT FALL BACK INTO
THE 20S AND 30S AREAWIDE, BUT GUSTY WINDS PERSIST AND PREVENT
DECOUPLING, MITIGATING THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY FROST FORMATION.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY ATTEMPT TO SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHTENED ON MONDAY BETWEEN THE SUB
980 MB LOW AND A BUILDING HIGH FROM THE MIDWEST. THIS RESULTS IN
ANOTHER BLUSTERY DAY, THOUGH GUSTS LOWER SLIGHTLY OVERALL FROM
SUNDAY, MORE INTO THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THE GRADIENT RELAXES
MONDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY WITH
LIGHT FLOW.
THE COOLER AIR MASS SETTLES IN MONDAY, AND IT MAY BE THE
COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS PROGGED IN THE LOW TO MID
40S FOR MOST, OR ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO FOR MID NOVEMBER.
COUPLED WITH THE BLUSTERY CONDITIONS, IT'LL LIKELY FEEL MORE
LIKE THE 30S MUCH OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES REBOUND A FEW DEGREES
ON TUESDAY, THOUGH REMAINING IN THE 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CYCLONIC FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH LEADS TO
A HEALTHY STRATOCU DECK ON MONDAY, WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF
SUNSHINE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY,
MODERATING TO NORMAL THURSDAY, ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
* THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH A MINIMAL SHOWER
CHANCE LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AND
ONLY MINOR DEVIATIONS WERE MADE FROM NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM).
BOTH A NEGATIVE AO AND NAO (SHORTER TERM CLIMATE SIGNALS) HAS LEAD
TO A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER VORTEX
OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THE PAST WEEK AND MULTIPLE DEEP LOWS TRACKING UP INTO
EASTERN CANADA FOLLOWED BY GUSTY W/NW WINDS. LONG TERM MODELS ARE
SHOWING A BREAK IN THE PATTERN LATER IN THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES GO
FROM BELOW NORMAL AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, TO ABOVE NORMAL LATER
IN THE WEEK.
IT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY WEEK AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
SOUTH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO BE ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. IF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WERE TO GET FAR ENOUGH NORTH INTO INLAND ZONES,
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SOME WET SNOW MIXING IN. IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A WETTER, WARMER
SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE VORTEX OVER EASTERN CANADA
LIFTS OUT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT BUT AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION
WILL GO TO THE N AND NW OF THE AREA BASED ON THE LATEST NWP
CONSENSUS.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS BEFORE DAYBREAK, AND AROUND DAYBREAK FOR EASTERN MOST
TERMINALS.
MAINLY VFR WITH ANY SCT SHOWERS MOVING EAST. THERE MAY BE A SHOWER
THAT MOVES ACROSS A FEW TERMINALS BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN TAFS OVER NEXT FEW HOURS. MARGINAL WSW LLWS OF 40-45 KT
AT FL020 ENDS WITH COLD FROPA, ONLY TO BE REPLACED WITH GUSTY WNW
WINDS 20-25KT WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30S. A PEAK GUST OF 40 KT MAY BE
POSSIBLE AT THE NYC TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS DIMINISH SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING, STILL OVER 15 KT WITH GUSTS
WELL INTO THE 20S.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
A GUST OR TWO UP TO 40 KT IS POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT 18Z-21Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY: VFR. W-WNW WINDS 15-20KT G25-30KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W-WNW WINDS G15-20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
INCREASING W/WNW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL
RESULT IN GALE CONDITIONS ON ALL WATERS BY LATE MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 6
AM THIS MORNING, THEN GALE WARNING ALL WATERS THRU 6 AM MONDAY.
GALES CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY PERSISTING ON NON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME. SEAS ON THE OCEAN BUILD TO BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FT THROUGH
MONDAY, AND PEAK GUSTS UP TO 40 KT ON ALL WATERS DURING THE TIME
OF GALE WARNING.
WINDS AND SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS BY TUE PM,
THEN PREVAILING ACROSS ALL WATERS INTO MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES NEARBY PROVIDING TRANQUIL SEAS AND LIGHT WINDS.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS THROUGH THE
WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JE/DR
NEAR TERM...DR
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/DR
HYDROLOGY...DR
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