897  
FXUS61 KOKX 140248  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
1048 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW TO  
THE SOUTH MAY GRAZE THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY  
NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND INTO THE  
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
A WEAK UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION BY EARLY THIS  
EVENING, WITH LITTLE MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT. WITH SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE DOMINATING AND LOW LEVELS REMAINING RATHER DRY AS PER  
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS, WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITIES  
MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. PERHAPS AREAS SEE ONLY A FEW  
SPRINKLES.  
 
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO  
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN  
CONTROL. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS.  
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR THE OUTLYING AREAS TO FALL  
INTO THE MID 50S, AND WITH DEW POINTS ALSO IN THE MID 50S PATCHY  
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY  
MORNING.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
A WEAK COLD FRONT DOES APPROACH THE REGION FOR SUNDAY, AND LOOKS  
TO DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE REGION  
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. KEPT WITH THE SLIGHT  
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY  
REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER. AGAIN, LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY,  
AND ANY SHOWERS WILL BE LIGHT, OR MAYBE BE JUST A FEW SPRINKLES.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
KEY POINTS:  
 
* DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
* A WEAK LOW TO THE SOUTH MAY GRAZE THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO  
THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 
* DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS FRIDAY, WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE  
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.  
 
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS  
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH IS STILL  
POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST, MOVING NORTHWARD UNDER THE  
RIDGE, WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL ONCE  
AGAIN BE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. THERE IS STILL SOME  
UNCERTAINTY WITH ITS LOCATION AND CONTINUED WITH THE NBM  
GUIDANCE. AFTER THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, WEAK SURFACE RIDGING  
RETURNS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE  
COAST WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH 5Z WITH NO IMPACT TO FLIGHT  
CATEGORIES. ANOTHER LOW CHANCE FOR SHRA AFTER 18Z SUNDAY FOR ALL  
TERMINALS BUT COVERAGE TOO UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT  
THIS TIME.  
 
S/SE FLOW EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE  
OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN BECOME S AT THE COASTS AFTER 15Z SUNDAY.  
 
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.  
ISOLATED SHRA POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AMENDMENTS  
POSSIBLE.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 03Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
 
 
 
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY: VFR.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT  
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS  
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST  
THURSDAY. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH  
THURSDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
THE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN  
BEACHES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...  
NEAR TERM...  
SHORT TERM...  
LONG TERM...  
AVIATION...MW  
MARINE...  
HYDROLOGY...  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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