517
FXUS61 KOKX 181120
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 AM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES, WITH HOT WEATHER EXPECTED THRU WED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SUMMERLIKE TEMPERATURES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
2) A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE.
3) MUCH COOLER AIRMASS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
4) COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH GOOD
BOATING WEATHER, AND WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE HOT FCST THRU WED. KEPT WITH THE
PREVIOUS TREND OF GOING A BIT BLW THE NBM WHICH IS BELIEVED TO
BE TOO WARM. WENT WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF THE MAV AND NBM TO
ACCOMPLISH THIS.
THE SHALLOW BACKDOOR COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
TEMPS TODAY ASIDE FROM ERN AREAS AND LI, WHERE ONSHORE FLOW MAY
LIMIT HIGHS A BIT. OTHERWISE THE HOT AIRMASS CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE NUMBERS END UP TODAY, THERE IS A
CHANCE SOME OF THE USUALLY WARMER SPOTS MAY NEED A HEAT ADVY
BASED ON THE TWO-DAY 95 DEGREE CRITERIA. IN ADDITION, TEMPS
COULD SPIKE ON WED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GUIDANCE OFTEN HAS A
TOUGH TIME GETTING HOT ENOUGH INVOF A FRONT, ESPECIALLY A FEW
DAYS OUT. DESPITE THAT BIAS, THE MAV/NBM BLEND STILL HAS A HIGH
OF 94 FOR KNYC ON WED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A COLD FROPA WILL OCCUR DURING
THE DAY ON WED. THE ACTUAL TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL. LOW MOISTURE
BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND NO CIN SHOULD ALLOW FOR TSTMS TO
DEVELOP INVOF THE FRONT ASSUMING A DAYTIME PASSAGE. THE BEST
UPR SUPPORT IS TO THE NORTH, BUT THERE WILL BE FALLING HEIGHTS
NONETHELESS.
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT BASED ON THE SETUP APPEARS TO BE DOWNBURST
WINDS WITH RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STORMS ATTM. DCAPE IN THE NAM
SUPPORTS THIS WITH PEAK VALUES AROUND 1500J/KG MODELED. THERE
COULD BE SOME HAIL AS WELL WITH THE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
MID LEVEL RIDGE SUPPRESSED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES THURSDAY BUT THEN MOVES NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY INTO THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
MAX TEMPERATURES FORECAST DECREASE BY NEAR 15 TO 20 DEGREES FOR
THURSDAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY.
COOLING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND THEN JUST LOW TO MID 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY. ALONG
WITH THAT ASIDE FROM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
BE MAINLY DRY, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
FARTHER AWAY AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 4
COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WATER TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE 50S. THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE
HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY
IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES
OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO
AVOID THIS THREAT.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MAKE IT ABOUT AS FAR WEST AS THE
HUDSON RIVER THIS MORNING BEFORE JUMPING BACK TO THE NORTH AS
WARM FRONT LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL KEEP US IN
A WARM, SOUTHERLY FLOW.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT E/SE WINDS DEVELOP THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY VEERING TO A
MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON,
INCREASING TO AROUND 10KT WITH A SOME LOCATIONS G15-18KT. KLGA
IS EXPECTED TO BE NE-ENE DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE VEERING TO MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. KBDR ALSO COULD
HANG ON TO AN E WIND INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT
TO UNDER 10 KT FROM THE S/SW.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS MAY ALSO BE MORE TO THE LEFT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. THIS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE AREA CAN HEAT UP TO MIX DOWN A MORE
S TO SSW FLOW.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: VFR. S/SW WINDS 10-15G20-25KT INTO EVE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE, MAINLY NORTH OF
NYC TERMINALS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY: VFR, GIVING WAY TO POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER WITH
POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS LIKELY AFTERNOON
INTO EVE WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. S/SW WINDS
10-15G20-25KT DAY INTO EVE. PEAK GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT POSSIBLE.
NW WINDSHIFT IN THE EVENING.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS TODAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE TNGT, WITH SCA COND POSSIBLE ON TUE, ESPECIALLY ON THE
OCEAN. THE THREAT FOR SCA WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUES ON WED AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES, THEN WINDS AND SEAS ARE MODELED TO REMAIN
BLW ADVY LVLS THU AND FRI.
THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG TSTMS INVOF THE COLD FRONT ON WED.
COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WATER TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE 50S. THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE
HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY
IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES
OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO
AVOID THIS THREAT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 19:
KEWR: 98/1962
KBDR: 89/2017
KNYC: 99/1962
KLGA: 96/2017
KJFK: 92/2017
KISP: 89/2017
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 17:
KEWR: 68/2015
KBDR: 60/2025
KNYC: 70/1906
KLGA: 68/1965
KJFK: 63/1965
KISP: 62/2015
MAY 18:
KEWR: 74/2017
KBDR: 66/2017
KNYC: 75/2017
KLGA: 80/2017
KJFK: 65/2017
KISP: 63/1977
MAY 19:
KEWR: 67/1986
KBDR: 66/2017
KNYC: 68/1986
KLGA: 68/2017
KJFK: 67/2017
KISP: 65/2017
MAY 20:
KEWR: 72/1996
KBDR: 61/2019
KNYC: 74/1996
KLGA: 77/1996
KJFK: 63/1996
KISP: 62/1996
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-176-178.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...
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