669
FXUS61 KOKX 222222
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
622 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING,
OTHERWISE DRY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
2) A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS FOR OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH THURSDAY (SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW).
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A SPOTTY SHOWER IS POSSIBLE INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE, OTHERWISE A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND MOVES OFFSHORE
OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY.
A MUCH LESS HUMID AIRMASS DURING THIS TIME WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SETTLES OVERHEAD FOR THURSDAY.
SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED THROUGH SOUTHERN CT. EXPECTING ANY
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING TO BE VERY ISOLATED,
IF AT ALL. HAVE PULLED PROB30S FROM ALL TAFS EXCEPT KGON.
WINDS VEER WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN NW/N THIS EVENING AS
THEY DIMINISH AND LOSE GUSTS. WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE N ON
THURSDAY, WITH POTENTIAL SEA BREEZES.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM HAVE LOWERED.
SEA BREEZE FOR THURSDAY IS MOST LIKELY FOR JFK AND LATE IN THE
DAY. HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR OTHER TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY - SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: VFR IN THE AM WITH CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN THROUGH THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS FRI- MON.
RIP CURRENTS: A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH
THURSDAY, BUT WITH A DIMINISHING SOUTHERLY SWELL THE RISK COULD
DECREASE TO MODERATE IN THE AFTERNOON. A MODERATE RISK TO START
THE DAY FRIDAY COULD ALSO LOWER IN THE AFTERNOON TO LOW.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...JMC
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JMC/DW
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