796
FXUS61 KOKX 081752
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
152 PM EDT MON JUN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARMING TREND EARLY INTO MIDWEEK. DRY UNTIL WEDNESDAY.
2) RAIN CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY, PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBILITIES MID TO LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
MAINLY DRY WEEKEND.
3) MID TO LATE WEEK WARMING TREND CONTINUES. AIRMASS GETTING VERY
WARM AND HUMID. POTENTIAL HEAT WAVE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MID LEVEL RIDGING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS GETS MORE
SUPPRESSED AND PUSHED SOUTH AND EAST WITH INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH
LATE TUESDAY. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS WEDNESDAY. SOME MID
LEVEL RIDGING FOLLOWS THEREAFTER THURSDAY. NEXT LARGER TROUGH
APPROACHES TOWARDS END OF WEEK, WITH MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES
BUT STAYS MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF REGION. RIDGE OVERALL WILL
BE MOVING FARTHER EAST NEXT WEEKEND WITH MORE ZONAL FLOW IN MID
LEVELS.
AT SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND WILL
CENTER OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR NORMAL. EXPECT MORNING CLOUDS TO SCATTER
OUT WITH SUBSIDENCE AND RIDGING ALOFT. TONIGHT WITH THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY, OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED WITH MORE VAST RANGE IN
LOWS EXPECTED.
FOR TUESDAY, STILL MOSTLY SUNNY SKY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MORE LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED WITH MORE LOW LEVEL SW FLOW
GETTING ESTABLISHED WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE. HIGH PRESSURE
IS MOVING FARTHER AWAY, INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUT RIDGING ALOFT
EARLY WILL STILL BE STRONG.
THE RIDGING WEAKENS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN. MORE CLOUDS ALSO FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL FOR THE REGION.
FOR WEDNESDAY, INSTABILITY NOT BUILDING TOO MUCH YET, LIMITING THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. DESPITE THE POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MORE LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH HIGHER SW FLOW
IS FORECAST. THIS IS AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. HIGHER TEMPERATURES
FORECAST NEAR NYC AND NORTH AND WEST WITH RELATIVELY SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST.
DURING THE PERIOD OF TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AIRMASS IS GETTING MORE
HUMID. FORECAST DEWPOINTS TREND FROM 40S TO NEAR 50 TUESDAY TO
LOW TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WARMING TREND INCREASES FURTHER FOR THURSDAY WITH MULTIPLE
GUIDANCE INDICATING THIS TO BE RELATIVELY WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.
850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING A FEW DEGREES C WITH SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES TAKE MORE OF A RISE, REACHING
MORE INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY BUT STILL NEAR 90 FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
DEWPOINTS RISE MORE INTO MID TO UPPER 60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDICES MID 90S TO NEAR 100 BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY NYC AND LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST.
FOR THE WEEKEND, AIRMASS GETS LESS HUMID WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS BUT
WILL STAY HOT. STILL HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND NEXT TROUGH STAYS
MOSTLY WELL NORTH AND WEST IN THE MID LEVELS. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS QUITE WEAK SO WITHOUT MUCH FORCING AND RAIN, AIRMASS
WILL NOT COOL DOWN TOO MUCH. FORECAST HIGHS STILL UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ESPECIALLY FOR
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGHER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MORE CAPE AVAILABLE. MODEL
TIMING HAS DIFFERENCES WITH FRONTS. IT APPEARS WARM FRONT MOVES
ACROSS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AREA IS WARM SECTORED THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY AND
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. MAINLY DRY FOR WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
VFR.
S-SE WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 15-20 KT. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE SW
TONIGHT AND WEAKEN, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT OUTLYING
TERMINALS. SW-S FLOW AT 10-15 KT CONTINUES ON TUESDAY, WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT POSSIBLE AT THE CITY TERMINALS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE, PRIMARILY NORTH AND
WEST OF THE NYC METROS. SW WINDS G20KT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES W/ CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SATURDAY: GENERALLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVING FARTHER
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MAKE FOR MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FETCH ON TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN AND WITH AMBROSE JET LIKELY TO DEVELOP, WESTERN
OCEAN ZONES WEST OF MORICHES INLET COULD GUST NEAR SCA LEVELS FOR
SOME TIME LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE OTHER MARINE ZONES. FOR THE NON-OCEAN ZONES, THE SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR THE
OCEAN, ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR BOTH GUSTS
AND SEAS. THE OCEAN SCA LEVELS SEAS MAY VERY WELL LINGER INTO
LATE WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE AS WINDS GAIN A MORE
ONSHORE COMPONENT TODAY NEAR 10 KT WITH A LINGERING EASTERLY
OCEAN SWELL OF NEAR 3-4 FT AND 5 SEC PERIOD. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 3 TO 4 FT.
FOR TUESDAY, THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS ALSO MODERATE. SOUTHERLY
WINDS OF NEAR 10 TO 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.
SOUTHERLY OCEAN SWELLS NEAR 3-4 SEC AND EASTERLY OCEAN SWELLS
NEAR 6-8 SEC ARE EXPECTED WITH THE SOUTHERLY ONE INCREASING IN
THE AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS OF NEAR 2 TO 3 FT ARE EXPECTED.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...FEB
MARINE...JM
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