328
FXUS61 KOKX 081029
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
629 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR METRO NYC/NE NJ.
KEY MESSAGES
1. FREEZE WARNING INTO THIS MORNING. COOLER THAN NORMAL DRY DAY
TODAY.
2. FROST FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.
3. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY, WARMER TRENDS TO DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
4. A WARMING TREND FOR LATE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
FREEZE WARNING ON TRACK, JUST EXTENDED IT ANOTHER HOUR TO 9AM
EDT THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION,
WITHIN THE GREATER NYC METRO INCLUDING PARTS OF NE NJ, ALL OF
NYC AND NASSAU.
WEATHER IS CONDUCIVE TO EXTRA COOLING WITH LACK OF CLOUDS AND
DECREASING WINDS. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY EXPECTED TODAY WITH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS DAYTIME MIXING HEIGHTS ARE LIMITED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
FOR TONIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY WARMER
THAN THOSE OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT
WILL BE HIGHER WITH MORE ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT
AS WELL ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. FROST IS EXPECTED TO
FORM, MOSTLY OUTSIDE THE NYC METRO. HOWEVER, WITHIN THE NYC
METRO AND ADJACENT AREAS THERE IS FORECAST TO BE SOME AREAS AND
PATCHES OF FROST, WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID
30S.
KEY MESSAGE 3
OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE OVER TIME AS WE HEAD
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES PROGRESSIVELY BECOME
WARMER EACH DAY TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES HAVE A
GOOD CONSENSUS OF WARMING WITH THE SW TO W FLOW THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY AND MOVES ACROSS FRIDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS A LIMIT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS AND POPS WITH THE RAIN
SHOWERS ARE AT MOST CHANCE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF TOTAL
RAINFALL EXPECTED WITH NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES.
KEY MESSAGE 4
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES ON BROAD TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL
CANADA AND THEN NRN PLAINS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST FRI INTO SAT, WHICH SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH
SAT MORNING. PRIOR TO FROPA, TEMPS SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEGUN A
WARMING TREND, WITH HIGHS 65-70 FROM NYC NORTH/WEST (5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL), AND MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR LONG ISLAND
AND MOST OF S CT (NEAR NORMAL). AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THAT FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONG
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS, WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S, STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST.
A MORE APPRECIABLE WARMING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AS
IT DEPARTS OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC, AND AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO
THE N. HIGHS ON MON SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 70S FROM NYC
NORTH/WEST AND THE 60S EAST OF THERE. EVEN WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED
ON TUE, UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FROM NYC NORTH/WEST AND 60 TO LOWER
70S EAST. THESE NUMBERS ARE 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
NORTH/WEST AND ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EAST.
AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BUILDS IN OVERHEAD TODAY, MOVES OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING, BUT REMAINS NOSED SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. N WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FOR OUTLYING
TERMINALS FOR MORNING PUSH, EXCEPT N GUSTS TO 15-20KT FOR
NYC/NJ METRO TERMINALS THRU AROUND 14Z WITH MORNING HEATING.
OTHERWISE, WINDS SUBSIDE AND VEER NE THROUGH MID TO LATE MORNING,
GIVING WAY TO RETURN SE SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW 10KT OR LESS IN
THE AFTERNOON, SUBSIDING THRU THE EVENING PUSH.
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, THEN GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE SE THU AM.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
BRIEF PERIOD OF NNE 15-20KT GUSTS LIKELY FOR MORNING PUSH
THROUGH 14Z. WINDS SUBSIDE AND VEER NE THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING, GIVING WAY TO RETURN SE SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW AROUND
10 KT BTWN 17Z AND 20Z. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THRU THE
EVENING PUSH, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: VFR. SE/S WINDS GENERALLY 8 TO 12 KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT.
FRIDAY NIGHT: POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN SHOWERS.
HIGHEST CHANCES NORTH AND WEST OF NYC TERMINALS. SW TO NW
WINDSHIFT.
SATURDAY: VFR. NW GUST TO 25 KT POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS HAVE LOWERED BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS AND ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD
WITH THEREBY A WEAK AMBIENT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE COULD BE SOME 25 KT GUSTS FOR PARTS OF THE
OCEAN INTO TODAY BUT THESE ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE OCCASIONAL.
NEXT TIME FOR POTENTIAL SCA CONDITIONS WILL BE WITH THE COLD
FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BE MAINLY DUE TO SEAS ON THE OCEAN, WHICH COULD LINGER INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ072>075-
176>179.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ006-106-108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...JM
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