177
FXUS61 KOKX 110847
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
447 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 09Z TAF AMENDMENTS.
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LOW PRESSURE WITH REMNANTS OF ISAIAS APPROACHES TODAY AND
MOVES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND EARLY MONDAY WITH OVERALL MINOR
IMPACTS TO THE AREA.
2) POSSIBLE ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR NY HARBOR, WESTERN
LI SOUND AND WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND DURING THE
MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES. POSSIBLE HIGH
SURF FOR OCEAN BEACHES, ESPECIALLY FOR LONG ISLAND OCEAN BEACHES.
3) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE GENERAL FORECAST FOR THE REMNANTS OF ISAIAS REMAINS ON
TRACK. MODELED RAIN TOTALS HAVE FALLEN SLIGHTLY, BUT THE CHANCE
REMAINS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY BANDS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES. THE REFS SUPPORTS THIS THINKING WITH MAX
AMOUNTS AROUND 3 INCHES. THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT THEREFORE
REMAINS THE SAME -- MINOR URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE WITH AN ISOLD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE WPC MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE LATEST TIMING PLACES THE HEAVIEST RAIN
MAINLY IN THE AFTN AND EVE, ALTHOUGH RAIN COULD DEVELOP AT ANY
TIME AFTER 12Z PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE HUDSON.
FOR WINDS, THE MODELED TRACK KEEPS THE LLVL JET OVER THE OCEAN,
WITH EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA. PEAK GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH
APPEAR ON TRACK. THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ALONG
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SOUND DUE TO FUNNELING EFFECTS.
WITH DEEP LIFT AN ELEVATED INSTABILITY, THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE
FOR SOME EMBEDDED TSTMS PARTICULARLY TONIGHT AS THE JET AND
UPPER TROF APPROACH. ANY IMPACTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW DUE TO
THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE TSTMS ATTM.
THE RAIN TAPERS OFF EARLY MONDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON PER THE NBM.
KEY MESSAGE 2
RECENT NEW MOON WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS AND INCREASED STORM
SURGE AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WILL MAKE
FOR SOME WATER LEVELS TO POTENTIALLY REACH MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS,
ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.
THIS IS MAINLY FOR THE NY HARBOR, WESTERN LI SOUND AND WESTERN SOUTH
SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND. ADDITIONALLY, THIS EVENING'S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE MAY COME CLOSE TO MINOR FOR SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD.
WHILE THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY LATER MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT, THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL PRESENT A LACK
OF SUFFICIENT OFFSHORE FLOW. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE THAT
GUSTY AND THE CIRCULATION PATTERN CHANGES BY TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER
LOW APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST TO GIVE MORE ONSHORE FLOW
EARLY TUESDAY. SO, WATER LEVELS WILL BE AROUND THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
ALONG THE OCEANFRONT, BUILDING SEAS ARE PROGGED TO PRODUCE
BREAKING WAVES IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE. THE HIGHEST SURF RIGHT NOW
IS SLATED FOR TONIGHT. SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION CAN BE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3
LESS AMPLIFIED AND LONGER WAVELENGTH TROUGH IN MID LEVELS
APPROACHES TUESDAY AND MOVES ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND WEST BUT THE
CENTER OF THIS LOW REMAINS NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A COLD FRONT ACROSS EARLY WEDNESDAY.
THERE WILL BE A BRIEF CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM WITH SOME FORECAST ELEVATED INSTABILITY, MAINLY
TUESDAY NIGHT. NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAINFALL WITH THIS CONSIDERING
THE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WITHIN THE SYSTEM.
AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINALS THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE. RAIN SHOWERS ARRIVE
FOR MOST AROUND SUNRISE, WITH MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT. CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR THIS MORNING, THEN IFR BY THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. LIFR IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
WINDS TONIGHT INCREASE THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT BY
AROUND 12Z. WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST. SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND 15 KT
ARE EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT. WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.
AMENDMENTS LIKELY AFTER 12Z DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF
ARRIVAL OF PRECIPITATION AND CHANGE IN FLIGHT RULE CATEGORIES.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TONIGHT: RAIN WITH IFR COND. LOCAL AND/OR BRIEF LIFR COND
POSSIBLE. NE 10-15G20 KT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
MONDAY: MAINLY DRY, BECOMING VFR MID TO LATE MORNING. N WIND
AROUND 10 KT G15-20 KT IN THE MORNING.
TUESDAY: MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING AT KGON/KBDR, OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT NIGHT AND POSSIBLY A TSTM.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. W-NW WINDS 10-15G20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
INCREASING WINDS TODAY ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS WILL PRODUCE SCA
CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY LASTING THRU TONIGHT. A SCA
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
ON THE OCEAN, THE SCA WAS EXTENDED THRU MON NIGHT AS SEAS SLOWLY
SUBSIDE. ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLW 25 KT MON
ATTM.
ANOTHER POSSIBLE SCA EVENT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
FOR PARTS OF THE OCEAN WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM, THEN WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS FOR THU.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ331-335-338-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ332-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...
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