465
FXUS61 KOKX 211141
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED THIS MORNING,
ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.
3) WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SOUTH THIS MORNING. A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO PASS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAK TO OUR NORTH DEVELOPS A
WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH. THE
COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL SHOULD DEVELOP SHOWERS OVER
THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, GENERALLY AROUND DAY BREAK. THE
SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
INITIALLY AND THEN SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT ALONG THE COAST
TOWARDS MID TO LATE MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE
AREA EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BEGINS TO RIDGE DOWN INTO NEW ENGLAND.
THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS AVERAGING
JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS INLAND TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH CLOSER
TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
DRY CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY
WILL TRANSITION TO UNSETTLED WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS OVER THE
UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE/DISTURBANCES
MOVE ALONG IT. THE FRONT SHOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY,
THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE HIGH WILL LEAVE BEHIND
SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE AREA INITIALLY ON SATURDAY, SO IT MAY
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE INITIAL DISTURBANCE TO BRING SHOWERS IN
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE RIDGING WILL WEAKEN AS
OVERRUNNING STRENGTHENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN CT THAT DO NOT SEE AS MUCH SHOWER
ACTIVITY ON SATURDAY SHOULD SEE THAT CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE
EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP LOWER COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. EASTERLY
FLOW COULD STILL BRING IN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN CT AND EASTERN
LI THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS/NBM QPF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY RANGES
FROM ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS, BUT NUISANCE MINOR URBAN FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR MEMORIAL DAY. CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
IS POINTING TOWARDS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, BUT NOT A COMPLETE
WASHOUT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, BUT THE
MODELING IS DIFFERING WITH ITS AMPLIFICATION AND WHETHER OR NOT
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST. THE PASSAGE OF THE
SHORTWAVE BY MONDAY NIGHT SHOULD HELP PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. IF THE RAIN
COMES IN QUICKER AND IS ABLE TO OVERSPREAD MORE OF THE AREA IN
THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD END UP A
FEW DEGREES COOLER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A BIT MILDER ON
SUNDAY, BUT STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. HIGHS ON MEMORIAL DAY WARM CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A LARGE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO BUILD TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL HELP
BRING A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER/MID 80S FOR HIGHS BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRES WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA THRU FRI AS A FRONTAL SYS
STAYS TO THE S.
MAINLY VFR TODAY. AREAS OF LGT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL PASS THRU
THE AREA THRU ABOUT 20Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
MAINLY FOR CIGS. A RETURN TO VFR IS LIKELY BY 21Z, THEN
REMAINING VFR TNGT.
N FLOW VEERS TO THE NE THRU 15Z, THEN VEERS TO THE E AFT 18Z.
WINDS GENERALLY AOB 11KT. FLOW BECOMES LGT AND VRB TNGT, THEN
INCREASES OUT OF THE NE/E ON FRI.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
THERE IS A LOW PROB OF PERIODS OF STEADIER RAIN IN THE 15-21Z
TIME PERIOD, ALTHOUGH ATTM IT IS MODELED TO STAY JUST S OF THE
ARPTS. AMENDMENTS WOULD BE NEEDED IF THIS MATERIALIZES OVER THE
AREA.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: VFR WITH INCREASING E FLOW.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS. E-NE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS. E-NE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING
THE DAY.
MONDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO SCA LEVELS ON ALL
WATERS WITH INCREASING E FLOW BRINGING WIND GUSTS TO 25-30 KT
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. OCEAN SEAS WILL ALSO
BUILD TO 5-8 FT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BELOW SCA LEVELS
LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT OCEAN SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH MONDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS
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