086
FXUS61 KOKX 300844
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
444 AM EDT WED SEP 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND GRADUALLY WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE.
2) COOLER WEATHER RETURNS THIS WEEKEND, WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST AND SETTLES OFFSHORE INTO
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DRIER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH A
GRADUAL WARM UP.
MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED TO TUESDAY, BUT STILL
ANTICIPATE SCT STRATOCU TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A
CIRRUS DECK MOVING IN LATE. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS UP TO THE
NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID
CLOUD COVER, BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY. TEMPERATURES
GET INTO THE 70S BOTH DAYS, WITH THURSDAY SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY.
BY FRIDAY, DEEP SW FLOW HELPS PUMP H925 TEMPS TOWARD 22-23C.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE INTO THE LOW 80S FOR MOST AREAS, PERHAPS MID
80S IN URBAN NE NJ, ABOUT 10 DEGREES OVER CLIMO FOR EARLY
OCTOBER BUT FAR FROM RECORD TERRITORY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE FRIDAY BRINGS AN END TO THE WARMTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, BUT COVERAGE AND IMPACTS APPEAR LIMITED WITH
PROGRESSIVE FLOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDS EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES, USHERING IN A COOLER AIR MASS
FOR THE WEEKEND.
WITH COOL, DRY NORTHERLY FLOW, TEMPERATURES SATURDAY LIKELY
STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 IN MOST AREAS. WINDS VEER E BY SUNDAY AS
THE HIGH SHIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE THEN LOWERS A BIT BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND
WITH UNCERTAINTY AROUND A POSSIBLE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
COULD DEVELOP AND PASS TO THE SOUTH. GLOBAL NWP AND AI GUIDANCE
HAS GENERALLY BACKED AWAY FROM WETTER SOLUTIONS PREVIOUSLY
OFFERED, BUT BEING 4 TO 5 DAYS OUT, WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR.
FOR NOW, WENT WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND'S 20 TO 30% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, REMAINING COOLER IN
THE 60S WITH HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN BUILDING IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRES BUILDS OFFSHORE TODAY, AND REMAINS OVER THE ATLC THRU
THU.
MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. POCKETS OF MVFR POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CIGS HOVERING AROUND 3000 FT.
MAINLY NW FLOW THIS MRNG, ALTHOUGH SOME VARIABILITY IS POSSIBLE
DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW. KJFK FORECAST TO GET MORE OF A SEA
BREEZE TODAY, WITH LGA AND EWR POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOME SW ALL AREAS THIS EVE.
WINDS AOB 10KT THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE LIKELY AT KJFK AND POSSIBLE AT KLGA AND
KEWR.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE,
MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
LIGHT SW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLING OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE WITH AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT FRIDAY AND THIS COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS ON SOME OF THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS BY FRIDAY EVENING.
BEHIND THE FROPA, WINDS TURN N ON SATURDAY, THEN E BY SUNDAY,
BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...
MARINE...DR
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