181
FXUS61 KOKX 201146
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
746 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST WITH JUST A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND
AGAIN FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS TODAY AS A QUICK MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. AHEAD OF IT, AN
INCREASING S FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA BEGINNING
TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ALONG THE COAST
AND INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S FOR WESTERN AREAS.
THIS TREND OF WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LARGELY PERSIST ON
SATURDAY THOUGH IT MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BEHIND
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. TEMPERATURES WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO SUNDAY
WITH HIGHS SIMILAR TO TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COUPLE OF RELATIVELY WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. THE FIRST QUICK MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF RAINFALL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN ENDS BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND REMAINING DRY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
SUNDAY, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN, MAINLY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THOUGH THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO OUR PLACEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE PASSING LOW.
THIS WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG OF A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS WE WILL
SEE. EITHER WAY, NOT ANTICIPATING THE EVENT TO BE PARTICULARLY
IMPACTFUL.
IN BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LARGELY IN
CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
DOWN TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS.
ANOTHER MORE ROBUST SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CROSS THE REGION BY AROUND DAYBREAK
SATURDAY.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS START TO LOWER WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 20Z FRIDAY. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 00Z SATURDAY IN RAIN.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING
WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT OUT OF THE SOUTH, THEN INCREASE
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS ENDING AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.
WIND SHEAR AT 2 KFT WITH SW WINDS AT 45 TO 50 KT, MAINLY FOR
EASTERN TERMINALS (KBDR, KISP, AND KGON) WITH A LOW LEVEL JET
DEVELOPING OVERHEAD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THIS IMPACTS
TERMINALS FARTHER WEST, SUCH AS KJFK, KLGA, AND KHPN.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL WINDS SPEEDS/GUSTS MAY BE HIGHER THAN FORECAST LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF RAIN AND LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR
OR TWO.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: VFR WITH NW WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS.
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT NIGHT FOR THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
MONDAY: VFR. N WINDS G20 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. N WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT S/SW WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS S WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WITH GUSTS 25-30KT, BEFORE WINDS BECOME SW AND DIMINISH TONIGHT.
SEAS ON OCEAN WILL TAKE LONGER TO SUBSIDE, PROBABLY NOT FALLING
BELOW 5 FT UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND SEAS APPEARS
LIKELY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THIS WILL
BE IN THE NW FLOW FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
MORNING.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ331-332-335.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR ANZ340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 PM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MW
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