197
FXUS61 KOKX 221141
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
741 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 8 PM
TONIGHT THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) NEXT MAIN RAIN EVENT WILL BE TODAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF FLOODING AND MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN COULD LINGER INTO MONDAY, POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE INTERIOR BEFORE
ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS.
2) ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE REGION WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN, WITH THE MAJORITY OF
THE RAIN FALLING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS
INITIALLY LOOKS TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. STRATIFORM RAIN LATER TONIGHT EXPECTED
AFTER COLD FRONT PASSAGE.
SPC HAS PLACE PORTIONS OF NE NJ AND NYC IN A MARGINAL RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
LAPSE RATES DURING THE TIME THE FRONT APPROACHES DO NOT LOOK
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, WITH ONLY A SHALLOW REGION OF HIGH LAPSE
RATES AND ELEVATED CAPE HAS DECREASED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS.
MUCAPE STILL LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 100-250 J/KG FROM THE SPC HREF.
ADDITIONALLY, SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION JUST ABOVE
THE UNSTABLE LAYER, AND LIFT DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY STRONG. THINKING
IS THAT IF ANY SEVERE STORMS DO MAKE IT TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS, THEY WILL GENERALLY BE WEAKENING, ESPECIALLY AS THEY HEAD
FARTHER EAST, WITH LITTLE, IF ANY INSTABILITY SHOWN IN THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MODELS.
IN ADDITION, THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED PORTIONS
OF NE NJ AND NYC IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS AND PWATS
CLIMB TO 1-1.25", SO 1"+ IS POSSIBLE IN AN HOUR. HOWEVER, CAM
MODEL REFLECTIVITIES SHOW THAT STORMS LOOK TO BE PROGRESSIVE
AND TRAINING IS NOT REALLY EXPECTED.
WITH A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY,
SOME RAIN COULD VERY WELL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES OF RAIN
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL DECREASE INTO LATE DAY. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION, THERE COULD BE SOME MIXING WITH SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR. LITTLE, IF ANY ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL PRETTY GOOD SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AMONG THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. WHILE MAINLY ANTICIPATED TO BE RAIN,
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND POSITIONS OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT
COULD LEAD TO SOME SNOW MIXING IN, IN SOME SCENARIOS. MODEL
SOLUTIONS SHOULD CONVERGE ON A MORE SOLID SOLUTION OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK WILL APPROACH AND
MOVES ACROSS THERE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
IT IS A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR TO START THE TAF PERIOD. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE EAST OF NYC,
SPECIFICALLY KISP, KBDR AND KGON. FOR THE NYC TERMINALS, WHILE
SOME MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES, IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR
MOST OF THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASES
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT AND WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH GUSTY WINDS, AT KTEB,
KEWR, KLGA, AND KJFK AS THE LINE OF SHOWERS MOVES THROUGH,
HOWEVER, WITH THE LOW CHANCES DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT LIKELY AFTER 13-15Z MONDAY MORNING.
A SE TO S FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE TERMINALS. BEHIND THE LOW, WINDS BECOME
NORTHERLY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFTS
TODAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR MVFR TIMING/COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING.
A LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY SUNDAY EVENING GUSTY THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE AT KEWR, KLGA, AND KLGA, NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST
WITH LOW CHANCES EXPECTED,
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER, ESPECIALLY BEFORE 18Z. NW WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 25KT, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY: VFR. LIGHT N WINDS BECOMING S.
WEDNESDAY: VFR WITH S/SW FLOW.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR WITH SHOWERS. SW FLOW.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB SCA EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WAVES INCREASE TONIGHT TO
5 FT ON THE OCEAN ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW, THEN WINDS INCREASE TO
AROUND 25 KT AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON MONDAY,
THEREFORE, A SCA WAS ISSUED FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM 8 PM
TONIGHT THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY. AN EXTENSION INTO MONDAY NIGHT MAY
BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET AND POINTS EAST. LESS
CONFIDENCE IN GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR ALL OTHER WATERS, BUT THE
POSSIBILITY EXISTS. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FURTHER FOR THE
POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF SCAS FOR THESE WATERS.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY A RETURN TO SCA
CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE UNDER INCREASED ONSHORE SW FLOW.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP
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