504
FXUS61 KOKX 261823
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
223 PM EDT MON OCT 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DESPITE A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO
THE WEEKEND.
2) LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NASSAU AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A STRONG UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA WILL
SUPPRESS THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. UPPER RIDGING
WILL THEN REESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY, WITH THE REGION LYING BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW TO OUR NORTH. OTHER THAN A DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE
TONIGHT, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE WEEK.
WIND OVERNIGHT FROM DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL PREVENT OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE LOW
40S TO UPPER 40S WITH LOW 50S IN AND AROUND THE NYC METRO.
AS A RESULT OF THE FRONT, LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW WILL REINFORE
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL TEMPS TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.
WINDS DROP OFF TUESDAY NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES LEADING TO OPTIMAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THE NYC METRO WILL DROP INTO THE
MID/LOW 40S. ELSEWHERE, WILL SEE 30S. AREAS THAT MAY GET BELOW
FREEZING WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND THE LI PINE BARRENS.
FROST MAY ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD IN THE INETRIOR AND THE LI PINE
BARRENS. GIVEN THE GROWING SEASON DOESN'T END IN SUFFOLK COUNTY,
BERGEN COUNTY, OR COASTAL CT ZONES UNTIL NOVEMBER 1ST, POSSIBLE
FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THESE LOCATIONS COULD PROMPT A FROST ADVISORY,
SHOULD FROST END UP BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS ON FRIDAY COULD
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S IN NE NJ.
KEY MESSAGE 2
LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN
NASSAU AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING HIGH TIDES
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE LENDS LITTLE
CONFIDENCE TO MEETING THESE THRESHOLDS, SO HAVE NOT ISSUED A
STATEMENT OR ADVISORY ATTM. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES (KING TIDE) MAY
MEAN LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THEREAFTER.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 7-10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTION VARIES FROM MOSTLY WEST THIS AFTERNOON TO MORE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THEN MORE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS AT KJFK COULD BECOME MORE SW THIS AFTERNOON AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON-SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JMC/BR
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...BR
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