582
FXUS61 KOKX 250531
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
131 AM EDT FRI OCT 25 2024
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER HIGH BUILDING IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT WILL ALSO PASS TO THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. WINDS
SHOULD LIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AND COMBINE WITH CLEAR SKIES TO ALLOW
FOR SOME AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPMENT IN THE COLDEST LOCALES
TONIGHT, GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE FAR INTERIOR. A FROST
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ORANGE CO, WHERE TEMPERATURES
LOOK JUST COLD ENOUGH IN THE LOWER/MID 30S FOR AREAS OF FROST.
ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES WON'T BE QUITE AS COOL, GENERALLY
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
AFTER A CHILLY START, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT OF FROST
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, THE WORK WEEK COMES TO A COOL AND DRY
CLOSE.
HEIGHTS CLIMB ALOFT AS RIDGING AMPLIFIES OVER THE REGION ON
FRIDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THE
SUBSIDENCE SHOULD MAINTAIN ABUNDANTLY CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. IT
WILL ALSO BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S,
MAINLY DUE TO THE LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LIMITING THE
DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER.
WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH
SAGS SOUTH, AND A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY ATTEMPT TO SNEAK IN
LATE AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENTIRELY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES RUN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE ONGOING WEAK WAA, WITH
LOWS GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A
DRYING/GUSTY NW FLOW AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEFORE
CAA KICKS IN LATER IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE
30S AND 40S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE, WITH
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, MOSTLY IN THE MID/UPPER 50S,
WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN PARTS OF THE NYC METRO AREA. SOME NEAR TO
SUB FREEZING TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MON NIGHT.
MODERATION IN TEMPS WILL BEGIN ON TUE, WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NEAR NORMAL. THEN AS A WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE NORTH, ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY WARM STRETCH EXPECTED, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S BOTH
WED AND THU, POSSIBLY NEARING 80 IN URBAN NE NJ PER BLEND OF NBM
AND ITS 75TH PERCENTILE.
DRY WX EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WHICH WOULD PUT THE DRIEST
OCTOBER OR ALL-TIME DRIEST MONTH OF RECORD IN JEOPARDY AT OUR
CLIMATE SITES.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SAT MRNG.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
NW-N WINDS UNDER 10 KT EXPECTED THIS MORNING BEFORE BECOMING
SW-SSW IN THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT SW WINDS TNGT, THEN WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NW AROUND 12Z SAT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT TO THE SW-SSW MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS
THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
TONIGHT: LIGHT SW WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 12Z SAT.
SATURDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT.
SUNDAY: VFR. NW WINDS GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: VFR. S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB SCA COND ARE ON THE WATERS ATTM, WITH GUSTS NO HIGHER THAN
20 KT AND SEAS 3-4 FT AS OF 7 PM. EXPECT SEAS TO BUILD TO 5 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ADJUSTED SCA TIMES TO REFLECT THIS.
THESE SEAS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH DAYTIME FRI, THEN LOWER FRI
EVENING.
AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SAT, SCA COND EXPECTED ON THE
OCEAN DAYTIME SAT INTO SAT NIGHT, WITH 5+ FT SEAS AND NW WINDS
GUSTING TO 25-30 KT. NY HARBOR AND THE ERN SOUND/BAYS WILL ALSO
LIKELY SEE SCA COND SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS
25-30 KT. THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND THE NEARSHORE CT COASTLINE
MAY ALSO SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES SAT
AFTERNOON.
QUIET COND FOLLOW THEREAFTER WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRE
SPREAD ON FRIDAY WITH MIN RH LESS THAN 40 PERCENT, BUT WINDS
WON'T BE NEARLY AS STRONG, GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH. SPS WILL BE
ISSUED FOR NE NJ AND S CT PER EARLIER COLLAB.
TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WITH
MIN AFTERNOON RH 25-35 PERCENT FROM FRI INTO MON. NW WINDS MAY
ALSO GUST TO 25-30 MPH SAT AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS MEETING RED FLAG CRITERIA IN NE NJ AND
IN/JUST OUTSIDE NYC, AND CLOSE TO IT FOR THE REST OF NE NJ, THE
NYC METRO AREA, AND UP INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND MOST OF S CT. WINDS WILL ALSO GUST UP TO 20 MPH AT TIMES ON
SUNDAY.
HYDROLOGY
THE PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER CONTINUES AND THERE ARE NO
HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ067.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
SYNOPSIS...BG/DR
NEAR TERM...DR/DS
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...JMC/DS
MARINE...BG/DR
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BG/DR
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