153
FXUS61 KOKX 081818
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
118 PM EST THU JAN 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LESS WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE NOW ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY IN
COMPARISON TO PRIOR FORECAST CYCLES. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) QUIET & DRY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
2) DUAL FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRING A PERIOD OF RAINFALL FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS. A FEW
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY, BUT FLOODING
CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL, AT THIS TIME. THE SECOND SYSTEM THEN
EXITS WITH A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.
3) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, EXITING OFFSHORE TOMORROW.
THIS WILL KEEP THINGS QUIET AND DRY THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
LOWS TONIGHT STILL REACH FREEZING IN THE INTERIOR AND LI PINE BARRENS
UNDER CALM WINDS, BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT ON FRIDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING.
THEY REMAIN ELEVATED ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, AIDING IN
WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND KEEPING ANY PRECIP AS ALL
LIQUID.
SIMULTANEOUSLY, WE'LL BE IMPACTED BY TWO SEPARATE FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
THE FIRST IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE ALOFT. THIS BRINGS THROUGH A WARM FRONT
ON FRIDAY LEADING TO INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
MOISTURE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE LOW 50S, THEN INTO THE LOW 40S BY
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE'LL BE LOCATED IN AN UNFAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP IN
THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK ON FRIDAY, SO PROBABLY ONLY
SEEING ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND OVERCAST SKIES UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
WHEN THE LOW EXITS INTO NORTHEAST CANADA AND DRAGS THROUGH A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SHOWERS UNTIL THE
FRONT EXITS AND STALLS TO OUR SOUTH BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS HAS
TRENDED NOTABLY LATER THAN IN PRIOR FORECAST CYCLES.
A SECOND FRONTAL WAVE OR BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP TO
OUR WEST AND SOUTH AND BRING IN MORE MOISTURE AND RAINFALL ON
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN PRECIP ON
SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL IT ARRIVES SATURDAY AFTERNOON, AS MOST MODEL
GUIDANCE NOW KEEP SATURDAY MORNING DRY. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE LOW EXITS NORTHEAST
WITH DRY NW FLOW SETTING IN.
RAINFALL MAY BRIEFLY BECOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY, AT TIMES,
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE SURFACE
LOW, FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFT, MORE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS ALOFT, AND
PWATS EXCEEDING 1" WILL HELP WITH THIS. HOWEVER, THE ORGANIZATION
AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONTAL WAVE VARIES AMONG GUIDANCE. IF TOO FAR
SOUTH, THEN DRIER, COOLER AIR MAY LEAD TO ONLY LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION. THIS BEARS WATCHING FURTHER. REGARDLESS, FLOODING
CONCERNS REMAIN MINIMAL, AT THIS TIME.
OVERALL FOR THE EVENT, AROUND 0.5-1.5" ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES HAVE TRENDED COOLER ON SATURDAY ALONG WITH LIGHTER
WINDS COMPARED TO PRIOR FORECAST CYCLES. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO
LOW PRESSURE NOW ANTICIPATED TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION RATHER
TRACKING TO OUR NORTHWEST WHICH WOULD HAVE LEFT US IN A PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WARM-SECTORED. HIGHS WILL NOW BE IN THE MID/LOW 40S ON
SATURDAY.
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY LOW
DEEPENING OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WITH THIS COMPLEX LOW PASSES THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY,
WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN
ENDING.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE
ANOMALOUSLY MILD WEATHER TO AN END AS TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MORE
SEASONALLY NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AHEAD OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT TRACKS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
THEN INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES TOMORROW.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS, MVFR OR LOWER CATEGORIES POSSIBLE IN ANY LOW STRATUS OR
PATCHY FOG PRIOR TO 15Z. MVFR CIGS BECOME LIKELY AFTER 18Z
FRIDAY WITH IFR CIGS BY 22-00Z. -RA POSSIBLE 18-21Z, BUT MORE
LIKELY AFTER 21Z.
WNW-NW WINDS AROUND 10KT DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON, BACKING MORE
W-WSW FOR SOME COASTAL TERMINALS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE A SHIFT TO THE S BY THE MORNING PUSH
WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10KT. SOME GUSTS TO 20KT ARE POSSIBLE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
TOMORROW DURING THE DAY.
CHANCE THAT WINDS AT KJFK BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE DAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY: RAIN LIKELY, MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. MVFR,
LOWERING TO IFR AT NIGHT. S WINDS G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON. LLWS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SATURDAY: RAIN WITH IFR LIKELY, MVFR POSSIBLE. SE WINDS G15-20KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. LLWS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EVENING.
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN AND MVFR/IFR MAINLY IN THE MORNING. W
WINDS G25-30KT.
MONDAY: VFR. NW/W WIND G20-25KT.
TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS, WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT UNTIL FRI
AFTERNOON. AS S WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYS
FRI NIGHT, MINIMAL SCA COND EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN E OF FIRE ISLAND
INLET, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS 5-6 FT.
AFTER A LULL DAYTIME SAT, SCA CONDITIONS WILL REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN
WATERS LATE SAT NIGHT.
SCA OCEAN SEAS WILL BE ON-GOING SUNDAY MORNING. THEN WITH COMPLEX
LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE NORTH, AND A SECONDARY LOW DEEPENING
OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, AND THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT SUNDAY, SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP ACROSS ALL
THE WATERS SUNDAY. GUSTS INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
GALES ON ALL THE WATERS, WITH GALES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING
ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL GALES IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE CANADIAN MARITIME DEEP LOW TRACKS AWAY FROM THE REGION LATE
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH.
WIND GUSTS FALL BELOW SCA ON THE NON OCEAN WATERS BY LATE MONDAY
WITH SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BR/MET
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...BR/MET
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