412
FXUS61 KOKX 061442
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1042 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES TODAY, ALTHOUGH THE
EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL/GREATEST FLOODING STILL
REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE
MONDAY COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. FLOODING MAY BE LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TODAY.
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN, ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
THROUGH TONIGHT.
SHOWERS ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY AS BETTER UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT/JET ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL RATES/FLOODING TODAY DUE TO A
HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE REGION. PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2 INCHES
AREAWIDE TODAY, ALTHOUGH PWATS OF 2+ INCHES MAY PERIODICALLY
ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA, WHICH IS HIGHER
THAN DAILY MAX SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY VALUES. SOME OF THE 00Z
FORECAST MODELS HAVE INDICATED PWATS MAXING OUT CLOSER TO 2.4
INCHES.
WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW, MAINLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY,
TRAINING OF STORMS WILL BE LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING.
00Z HREF PROBABILITIES FOR 3 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE IN 3 HOURS
HIGHLIGHTS PORTIONS OF THE NE NJ, NYC AND LONG ISLAND IN A 30
PERCENT CONTOUR FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WHICH IS
TYPICALLY A GOOD INDICATION OF FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AREA.
AS A RESULT, WPC HAS PLACED NYC, LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT IN
A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TODAY.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS, STORM TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 4+ INCHES. RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY BE 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE. THE MAIN AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST IS WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS AND RESULTING FLOODING WILL OCCUR AND WILL DEPEND ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
FLOODING IMPACTS WOULD BE HIGHEST IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS IN ADDITION TO THE MOST RESPONSIVE RIVERS/CREEKS/STREAMS.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND TRAVELS ALONG A FRONT SOUTH
OF THE REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR OR EVEN VFR ARE POSSIBLE AT SOME SITES THROUGH 17Z.
CONDITIONS THEN DETERIORATE TO LIFR TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, PRIMARILY AFTER 18Z, SO
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE PROB30S IN THE TAFS FROM 18Z TIL 00Z.
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT, HOWEVER ANY
CHANCES FOR THUNDER DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.
E-ENE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT ALONG THE COAST.
EAST OF NYC, THE GUSTS SHOULD LAST INTO PARTS OF THE OVERNIGHT.
SOME TERMINALS AWAY FROM THE COAST WILL AT TIMES HAVE MORE
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS TIMING OF GUSTS.
TIMING OF CATEGORICAL CHANGES COULD BE OFF BY 2-4 HOURS
COMPARED TO TAF.
FLUCTUATION BETWEEN CATEGORIES POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
TUESDAY: IFR AND SHOWERS, MAINLY EARLY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LOWER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS. VFR EVENTUALLY RETURNS AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY: POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY AT NIGHT.
BRIEF MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH MVFR TO IFR POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LONG ISLAND SOUND,
FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT, AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO AS HIGH AS NEAR 30
KNOTS AND WAVES OF 4 TO PERIODICALLY 5 FEET ARE EXPECTED DURING
THIS TIME. WAVES MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: INCREASING E FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THE RISK BACK
TO MODERATE TODAY. FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NE BUT
GIVEN PERSISTING E/SE SWELL A MODERATE IS MAINTAINED FOR
TUESDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-
340-345-350-353.
DISCUSSION...BC
AVIATION...FEB/BC
MARINE...BC
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