998  
FXUS61 KOKX 232349  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
749 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE WESTERN  
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO  
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A COLD  
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS A NORTHERN  
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SOUTHERN  
STREAM WAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR  
SEASONAL NORMALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH CLEAR SKIES, AND NEAR  
CALM WINDS, TEMPERATURES IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WILL BE  
COOLER WITH NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
 
 
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BEGINS  
TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING  
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH OF THE WAVES ARE VERY WEAK,  
BROAD, AND LOW AMPLITUDE. AND AT THE LOWER LEVELS THIS WAVES  
NEARLY WASHOUT AS THEY MOVE INTO SURFACE RIDGING. IN ADDITION,  
THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE, SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS, WITH MAINLY  
HIGH CLOUDINESS.  
 
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND  
THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO  
WEDNESDAY. AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS  
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION OF THE SHORTWAVES.  
 
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE  
AREA FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST, AND  
WEAK RIDGING TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AND ONCE AGAIN  
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.  
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN  
BEACHES ON THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
LOW PRES IS MODELED TO PASS S OF LONG ISLAND ON SAT. THE ECMWF  
AND NAM ARE COMPLETELY DRY, WHILE THE GFS HAS SOME SHWRS ON  
THE NRN FRINGE OF THE SYS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION,  
THE GFS FIRES A FEW SHWRS ALONG A LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN  
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. STILL, FORCING DOES NOT LOOK GREAT, AND  
WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF DRY, THE NBM POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN AND  
CAPPED AT 30. ALL OF THE MODELING CAME IN DRY FOR SUN, SO THE  
MINIMAL POPS IN THE NBM WERE ADJUSTED DOWN TO DRY.  
 
AN H5 TROF DROPS DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST ON MON. THIS OPENS THE  
AREA UP TO STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHWRS IN  
THIS FLOW SUN NGT INTO MON, BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED  
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. THAT TIMING IS  
LATE MON AND MON NGT. POPS CAPPED AT 30 DUE TO CONCERNS OVER  
TIMING THIS FAR OUT.  
 
DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPR LVL TROF SETS UP, THERE COULD BE SOME  
INSTABILITY RELATED SHWRS TUE INTO WED. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHWRS  
THEN FOLLOWS FOR MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  
 
THE NBM WITH LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS WAS USED FOR TEMPS IN THE  
EXTENDED. A PERSISTENT SLY LLVL FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS ABV  
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE SECOND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE  
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A COOL DOWN  
TO TEMPS AOB CLIMO.  
 
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN  
BEACHES ON FRIDAY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND  
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EASTWARD.  
 
LIGHT W-NW WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO S-SW COASTAL SEA BREEZES 8-10  
KT THU AFTERNOON AT KJFK AND THE LONG ISLAND/CT TERMINALS.  
WINDS AT THE REMAINING NYC METROS SHOULD BECOME SW 5-10 KT  
BEFORE A LATE DAY S-SE SEA BREEZE.  
 
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON LATE DAY SEA BREEZE KEWR/KTEB, HIGH  
CONFIDENCE OTHERWISE.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
 
   
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
 
VFR.   
SATURDAY
 
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY SHOWERS.    
SUNDAY
 
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AM.    
MONDAY
 
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED  
TSTMS. SW WINDS G25KT.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT  
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
PERSISTENT S WINDS WILL BRING THE OCEAN WATERS CLOSE TO SCA LVLS  
FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND. SCA LIKELY FOR MON. THE  
PROTECTED WATERS LOOK TO REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON. THERE  
COULD BE A PERIOD WHERE THE OCEAN GOES BLW SCA LVLS ON TUE, THEN  
S WINDS KICK IN AGAIN ON WED.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET  
NEAR TERM...MET  
SHORT TERM...MET  
LONG TERM...JMC  
AVIATION...GOODMAN  
MARINE...JMC/MET  
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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