091
FXUS61 KOKX 210028
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
828 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THUNDERSTORMS WERE REMOVED FROM FORECAST TONIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL
MIDNIGHT. OCEAN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES STILL GO THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BUT EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET, THEY WERE
EXTENDED THROUGH ALL OF SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL
GIVE A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN.
2) AFTER A DRY AND MILD DAY SATURDAY, NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHWARD BRINGING ANOTHER RAIN EVENT TO CLOSE OUT THE
WEEKEND AND THIS LINGERS INTO MONDAY.
3) HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY COOL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY,
THEN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
4) POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT THE AREA
WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND MAGNITUDE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THERE IS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHING THE
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT EXITS SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING.
THE RAIN SHOWERS TRAVERSE THE REGION FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN. RAIN AMOUNTS ON
AVERAGE LOOK TO STAY UNDER A HALF INCH SO NO FLOODING IS
EXPECTED.
NW FLOW WILL BE LIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND WITH MOISTURE LADEN
GROUNDS, SOME PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. THIS IS
MAINLY FOR OUTSIDE THE NYC METRO AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE ATTACHED TO THE COLD FRONT AND THIS INCOMING HIGH
PRESSURE. A NW FLOW WILL RESULT WHICH WILL BE GUSTY BUT WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 TO 25 MPH AT MOST.
NOT MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. WITH THE
NW FLOW, THERE WILL BE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AND WITH LESS MARITIME
INFLUENCE, HIGH TEMPERATURES GET MORE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S RANGE
ALONG THE COAST. THE COASTAL LOCATIONS GET RELATIVELY WARMER THAN
LOCATIONS FARTHER INLAND.
SATURDAY NIGHT, SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND WEAKENS WITH CLOUDS
INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE.
FOR SUNDAY, THE NEXT RAIN EVENT BEGINS AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. BEFORE THE
RAIN MOVES IN THOUGH, WARM AIR ADVECTION ON MORE WSW FLOW WILL MAKE
FOR WARMER TEMPERATURE DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS. WESTERN
AREAS GET INTO THE 60S FOR THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WHILE
LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST GET MORE INTO THE 50S.
RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR
RAIN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND RAIN BECOMES LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BEHIND IT. THIS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING IN THE AREA. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS DAY. FOR SOME INTERIOR AREAS, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX HEADING INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, RAIN
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH DECREASING CHANCES MONDAY MORNING INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A SHOT OF DRY, COOL WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NW. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER AND MID 30S AT THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 4
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS TIME AS A FAST NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW WILL SEND SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WEST TO EAST ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF
THESE FEATURES, THUS IMPACTING THE TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF RAIN
WITH MULTIPLE FRONTAL SYSTEMS. THE FIRST BEING ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
ANOTHER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM, A COLD FRONT
DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH, BUT COULD VERY WELL HANG UP OVER THE AREA
OR REMAIN JUST NORTH. THE GEFS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THIS CAMP, WHILE
THE EPS AND GEPS PUSH THE FRONT THOUGH. RAIN CHANCES ARE LOW ON
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A STRONGER FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THUS,
RAIN CHANCES ARE BETTER. NEITHER OF THESE SYSTEMS LOOK TO POSE
SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW.
EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING BEHIND
UNTIL THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER
INTO DAYBREAK BEFORE BECOMING ALL VFR. WE'LL REMAIN VFR AND DRY
TOMORROW.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KT THIS
EVENING, HIGHEST AT THE COAST. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT, WITH
GUSTS ENDING AFTER 03Z. WIND SHEAR AT 2 KFT WITH SW WINDS AT 40
TO 50 KT, MAINLY FOR COASTAL TERMINALS (KJFK, KBDR, KISP, AND
KGON) WITH A LOW LEVEL JET PASSING ACROSS THE AREA. BY TOMORROW
MORNING, WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KT AND BEGIN TO GUSTS
TO AROUND 20 KT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
FALL OFF IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
IN THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF RAIN AND LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR
TWO.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY: VFR WITH NW WINDS AT 10 KT OR LESS.
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT NIGHT FOR THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
MONDAY: VFR. N WINDS G20 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. N WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN. SOME MIXING POSSIBLE
IN THE INTERIOR. W WINDS 10-15 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SHORT PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT LEVEL WIND GUSTS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL WATERS. IT MAY BE MORE MARGINAL FOR
PARTS OF THE NON-OCEAN AND MORE OCCASIONAL. OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO
NEAR 5 TO 7 FT, WHICH LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY.
WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET, SCA GOES UNTIL 2PM SATURDAY AND EAST
OF FIRE ISLAND INLET, SCA GOES UNTIL 6PM SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, WIND GUSTS ARE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL WATERS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. OCEAN RETURNS TO AROUND SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY BUT NON-OCEAN ZONES REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NW
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOWS ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IN A SW FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ331-332-
335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...JM/DW
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JM/DW
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