574
FXUS61 KOKX 112353
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
753 PM EDT TUE AUG 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
2) MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MID TO LATE WEEK.
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY.
3) SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR SOME OF THE COASTLINE FOR NIGHT
TIME HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH RECENT NEW
MOON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW WITH AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS. THE MODELS SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION
AND TIMING OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY
MOVES FARTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
MODELS INDICATE BULK SHEAR 0-6 KM AGL OF NEAR 25-35 KT ALONG WITH
LOW LEVEL CAPE OF NEAR 1000 J/KG. NAM IS HIGHER WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS. THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED
TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
CAMS INDICATE TWO SETS OF CONVECTION THAT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
ONE GENERATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY AND
COLD FRONTAL FORCING, MOVING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS MOSTLY THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE REGION. THE SECOND ONE HAS MORE UNCERTAINTY AND OCCURS
LATE TONIGHT. SOME CAMS HAVE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN SECTIONS WHILE OTHERS HAVING IT MORE TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES NEAR THE AREA THURSDAY AND COULD LINGER
INTO FRIDAY.
A FEW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES MOVE ACROSS, WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AND THEN THURSDAY NIGHT TOWARDS EARLY FRIDAY. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE FORCING FOR THE NEXT CHANCES OF CONVECTION.
THE ONE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE AND MORE VERTICAL FORCING.
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF DOWNBURSTS AND
SMALL HAIL WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND CAPE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED BUT CANNOT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT WITH AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A RECENT NEW MOON HAS ALLOWED FOR ASTRONOMICAL TIDES TO INCREASE.
WITH SOME ONSHORE FLOW, TOTAL WATER LEVELS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE EVENING/NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THE COASTLINE, MAINLY FOR
THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND
SOUND SHORELINES ADJACENT TO WESTCHESTER NY AND FAIRFIELD CT.
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES A THREAT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF NASSAU AND QUEENS AND COASTAL
WESTCHESTER AND FAIRFIELD AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES PEAK. LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE FOR VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG
NY/NJ HARBOR AND TIDALLY AFFECTED NE NJ RIVERS DURING THIS TIME
AS WELL.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS ARE FORECAST TO BE MET FOR SOME
SITES FOR TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE, JUST OVER THE MINOR BENCHMARKS,
WHICH IS COVERED BY A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT.
THE COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS COVER THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD CT AS WELL AS SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER
NY SHORELINES FOR THIS EVENING.
THE HIGHEST TOTAL WATER LEVEL FORECASTS WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
DURING THE HIGH TIDE, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
POTENTIAL.
THE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT SO TOTAL WATER LEVEL
FORECASTS SLIGHTLY DECREASE COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BUT LESS ABOVE THE MINOR
BENCHMARK AND LESS COVERAGE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PRIMARILY VFR. THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED, BUT
LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER COULD REMAIN NEAR
TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 02Z. HAVE ALSO REMOVED SHRA MENTION
LATE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM THE TAF GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST GUIDANCE.
LIGHT NW/VRB WINDS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING W/SW WEDNESDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE UNTIL ABOUT 02Z. AMENDMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: VFR MOST OF THE TIME, CHANCE AT SUB VFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. S- SW WINDS, WITH W / NW WINDS AT NIGHT.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY: VFR. NW WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25KT FRIDAY. N TO NW
WINDS UP TO 10 KT SATURDAY.
SUNDAY: VFR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SUB VFR POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT IN SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND AS THE FORECAST PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL NOT BECOME TOO STEEP.
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY TREND MORE TOWARDS SCA
LEVELS FOR MAINLY THE OCEAN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOME NON-OCEAN ZONES WILL
HAVE SCA POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS AS WELL.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JM/DW
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JM/DW
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