563  
FXUS61 KOKX 062353  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
753 PM EDT MON APR 6 2020  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, MOVING  
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY  
NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND ITS  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS LOW  
WILL PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED  
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS STATES ON SATURDAY.  
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON  
SUNDAY, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND  
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
 
 
SEABREEZE DOING BATTLE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS LONG ISLAND  
AND THE CT COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES  
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.  
 
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE ACROSS  
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE WINDS  
WILL BECOME LIGHT, THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP  
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW  
OUTLYING LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS  
A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING  
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO  
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF  
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, CLOUDS WILL  
INCREASE, AND A FEW SHOWERS AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION BY EARLY  
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.  
 
SHOWERS THEN BECOME MORE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT  
APPROACHES, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT  
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES THE  
AREA. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT,  
GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.  
 
AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,  
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50,  
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE  
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN IS THEN  
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND,  
MORE POTENT, LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN  
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ON THURSDAY AS THIS LOW AND ITS  
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH. WITH SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER  
DYNAMICS, CAN'T RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER  
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. DRY  
WEATHER THEN RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFF  
TO THE NORTHEAST.  
 
AS THE DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PULLS AWAY, A TRAILING SFC  
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS.  
BRISK W-NW WINDS NEARING ADVY CRITERIA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY  
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS  
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH, ALSO AFTER ITS PASSAGE VIA  
ENHANCED DOWNWARD MOTION/MOMENTUM TRANSFER. FAIRLY BRISK WINDS  
SHOULD LAST INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING, THEN DIMINISH ON SAT  
AS THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD.  
 
A RETURN S FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY  
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING/STRENGTHENING HIGH, AND A SRN STREAM WAVE  
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE TN VALLEY, WITH INCREASING  
RAIN CHANCES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG S WINDS MAY BE  
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY AT THE  
COAST AS A LONG S FETCH AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOP. THE  
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARMTH/MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD  
ALSO LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER, MORE SO  
ACROSS S CT AND LONG ISLAND.  
 
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MON MORNING IF NOT LONGER AS THE  
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOW QUICKLY IT PULLS AWAY DEPENDS ON THE AMT  
OF SRN/NRN STREAM INTERACTION AT THAT TIME, WHICH IS UNCERTAIN.  
 
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF  
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE REMAINING NEAR NORMAL ON  
THURSDAY. TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY  
SHOULD GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SAT FROM NYC NORTH/WEST,  
THEN RANGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY INTO  
MON.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE 24 HR TAF SITES, THEN  
APPROACHING MVFR FOR THE 30 HR TAF SITES / CITY TERMINALS LATE  
IN THE PERIOD.  
 
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT  
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS THEN INCREASE LATE TUESDAY  
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE OUT  
OF THE SW, THEN BECOMING S AND SE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CITY AND  
COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
 
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
VFR EARLY, THEN MVFR LATE.   
WEDNESDAY
 
MVFR TO IFR WITH SHOWERS.    
THURSDAY
 
BECOMING VFR WITH SHOWERS ENDING.   
FRIDAY
 
VFR.   
SATURDAY
 
VFR AND BREEZY.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY  
NIGHT. WINDS THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT  
CROSSES THE WATERS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. OCEAN SEAS  
WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT AND 5-7 FT  
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FRIDAY  
NIGHT. W-NW GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR  
SHORE AND ALSO ON THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING LESS THAN 0.25" TUESDAY NIGHT INTO  
WEDNESDAY AND LESS THAN 0.5" ON THURSDAY. BASIN AVG RAINFALL OF  
1/2 TO 1 INCH APPEARS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY EVENING  
AND NIGHT FOR LOWER NEW YORK HARBOR, SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF  
WESTERN LONG ISLAND, AND FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO WESTERN LONG  
ISLAND SOUND. ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND/OR ADVISORIES ARE  
LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A  
FULL MOON (SUPERMOON). WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT  
GET CLOSE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE BEST CHANCE WILL  
BE FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE  
GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVING THE GREATEST  
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR AND EVEN LOCALIZED MODERATE  
FLOODING.  
 
MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME NEED ANYWHERE FROM 1/2 TO  
1 1/2 FT OF SURGE TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS.  
DURING THIS TIME, THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND FORCING OR  
TIDAL PILING. THE MAIN FACTOR WILL BE THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL  
TIDES AND BACKGROUND POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALY. THE ETSS IS BIT  
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS IT  
HAS LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WITH EASTERLY WINDS  
BRIEFLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME.  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) IS UNDERGOING  
ITS FINAL STAGES OF TESTING, AND IS OPERATING AT FULL POWER.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...FEB/GOODMAN  
NEAR TERM...FEB/DW  
SHORT TERM...FEB  
LONG TERM...FEB/GOODMAN  
AVIATION...JE  
MARINE...FEB/GOODMAN  
HYDROLOGY...FEB/GOODMAN  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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