819
FXUS61 KOKX 012322
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
622 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEK.
2) A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR NEXT
WEEKEND.
3) MINOR TIDAL FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE
CYCLE, MOST LIKELY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ONE LAST ROUND OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES IS IN EFFECT FOR
ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WHERE
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT MAY DROP TO -10 TO -15 DEGREES.
PERSISTENT COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING WELL BELOW AVERAGE, GENERALLY BY 5-10
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS EACH DAY REMAINING GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE COAST. WHILE THERE MAY BE A FEW DAYS
WHERE TEMPERATURES HIT 32 OR 33 ALONG THE COAST, LARGELY THE
ENTIRE AREA SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE
WEEK.
LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE WEEK AND SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR THE INLAND
AREAS. DESPITE THE PERSISTENT COLD, WIND CHILL VALUES SHOULD
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT ANY COLD WEATHER HEADLINES
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR. HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ONLY REACH THE TEENS
AND LOWER 20S, WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY EVEN SEE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 0. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE BEHIND THIS FRONT. WITH GUSTY WINDS AND THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES, CAN NOT RULE OUT COLD WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE
WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3
ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS ARE STILL HIGH WITH RECENT FULL MOON. SURGE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BUT NW FLOW WILL
BE A NEGATIVE OFFSET TO THIS, WITH TOTAL WATER LEVELS NEAR THE
SAME LEVELS AS EXPERIENCED TODAY AS A RESULT.
TOTAL WATER LEVELS OBSERVED WITH EARLIER HIGH TIDE CYCLE WERE
LESS THAN FORECAST. WITH NW GUSTY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH
OF TONIGHT AND REDEVELOPING MONDAY, THINKING HERE THAT SURGE
FORECASTS WILL END UP BEING ON THE LOWER SIDE WITH PRIMARY
OFFSHORE FLOW.
THE ONLY PLACES THAT REACHED MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS WERE
A FEW SITES IN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND THESE AREAS ARE IN
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT FOR MONDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDES
SOUTHERN QUEENS AND SOUTHERN NASSAU.
ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING
WITHIN THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS BUT WILL BE LESS PROBABLE FOR OTHER
SHORELINES WITH WATER LEVELS FORECAST TO FALL SHORT OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
VFR.
A NNW FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTS 18-24 KT
REMAIN AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING, ENDING AROUND
04Z, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSWF WHERE GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT GUSTS WILL CONTINUE 2 TO 3 HOURS LATER
THAN FORECAST TONIGHT, AND BE MORE OCCASIONAL. GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KT DEVELOP 14Z/15Z MONDAY, AND MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL BEFORE
ENDING MONDAY AFTERNOON.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS COULD CONTINUE 2 TO 3 HOURS LONGER THAN
FORECAST TONIGHT.
GUSTS START AND END TIME COULD BE 1-2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF, AND
GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH TONIGHT. A GALE WARNING IS
OTHERWISE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, AND
FOR THE OCEAN, THIS INCLUDES THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. SCA WILL
BE NEEDED FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT, AND POSSIBLY INTO A
PART OF MONDAY MORNING. ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAIN ON THE OCEAN
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SOME OF MONDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CONDITIONS. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA
CONDITIONS COME LATE IN THE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY FOR NYZ067-068.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...BC/MW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/MW
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