587
FXUS61 KOKX 051839
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
239 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING.
2) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY BECOME MORE SEASONABLE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
3) A FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE COMBINATION OF DRYING FINE FUELS, SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN MAINLY
30 AND 35 PERCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD
FOR SOUTHERN CT, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND NEW YORK CITY THROUGH
THE EVENING. REGARDLESS OF EXACT RH VALUES, GUSTY WINDS WITH DRY
FUELS WILL BE ABLE TO PROMOTE FIRE SPREAD IF IGNITION OCCURS.
THIS FORECAST CONSIDERS METEOROLOGICAL, FUEL, AND LAND CONDITIONS
AND HAS BEEN DEVELOPED IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE AND LAND
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10-15 DEGREE ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY WILL SETTLE BACK DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL USHER IN
A COOLER AIRMASS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUBSTANTIALLY MORE CLOUD COVER.
HIGHS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE 60S, WITH
COOLEST SPOTS ALONG THE COAST AND WARMER SPOTS FOR INLAND WESTERN
AREAS. ANOTHER BRIEF WARM UP MAY OCCUR TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LATEST NWP AND AI GUIDANCE IS
PUTTING OUT ABOUT A HALF INCH OF RAIN ON AVERAGE ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT, THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
STABILIZE THUS LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT MAY RESULT IN A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER, BUT OVERALL NOT EXPECTING ANY SURFACE
BASED OR SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE A BENEFICIAL RAINFALL. QPF
TOTALS HAVE DECREASED SOME OVER TIME AS NWP GUIDANCE APPEARS TO
BE PROGRESSING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY A BIT FASTER NOW TO THE EAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THUS, THE BULK OF THE
RAIN TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE REMAINS
A CHANCE OF RAIN / SHOWERS INTO THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT POPS HAVE
GRADUALLY LOWERED OVER TIME, ESPECIALLY FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE
AREA. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TO
THE SOUTH, BUT NWP AND AI CONSENSUS HAS TRENDED FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS FEATURE. THUS ANY RAIN ON THURSDAY
SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN NATURE AND LIKELY FURTHER EAST WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THURSDAY EVENING. SKIES ARE NOW EXPECTED
TO CLEAR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A FRONT
STALLED TO OUR NORTHWEST. A FRONTAL WAVE PASSES THE THROUGH THE
AREA TOMORROW.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z WEDNESDAY IN SHOWERS. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
S-SSW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING, STRONGEST AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING THOUGH MOST TERMINALS
MAINTAIN INCREASED SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT INTO LATE
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY.
A PERIOD OF LLWS IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BY 03Z. SSW 45-55 KT AT
2,000 FT.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
ONSET TIME OF GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR OR LOWER.
FRIDAY: VFR. W-NW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR.
SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL WATERS BY LATE MORNING AND
MORE OR LESS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF LULL IN ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOST NON-
OCEAN WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE
EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH SOME EASTERN NON-OCEAN WATERS HAVING OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 30
TO 35 KT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FROM
WEST TO EASTER LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THEREAFTER
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT,
FOLLOWED BY AT LEAST MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TOWARDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ331-332-340-345-350-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...20
MARINE...MW
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