563
FXUS61 KOKX 062353
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
753 PM EDT MON APR 6 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT, MOVING
OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS LOW
WILL PULL AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON FRIDAY, FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE PLAINS STATES ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON
SUNDAY, WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
SEABREEZE DOING BATTLE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS LONG ISLAND
AND THE CT COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WHILE WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT, THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA, WITH A FEW
OUTLYING LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE MID 30S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES BEGINS TO
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY, CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE, AND A FEW SHOWERS AREN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION BY EARLY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.
SHOWERS THEN BECOME MORE LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT
APPROACHES, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW REACHES THE
AREA. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT,
GENERALLY AROUND TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH.
AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL BACK INTO THE 40S TO AROUND 50,
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE RAIN IS THEN
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A SECOND,
MORE POTENT, LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ON THURSDAY AS THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACH. WITH SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
DYNAMICS, CAN'T RULE OUT AT LEAST A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. DRY
WEATHER THEN RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST.
AS THE DEEP VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PULLS AWAY, A TRAILING SFC
TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS.
BRISK W-NW WINDS NEARING ADVY CRITERIA MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE BY
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS TROUGH, ALSO AFTER ITS PASSAGE VIA
ENHANCED DOWNWARD MOTION/MOMENTUM TRANSFER. FAIRLY BRISK WINDS
SHOULD LAST INTO FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING, THEN DIMINISH ON SAT
AS THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
A RETURN S FLOW SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING/STRENGTHENING HIGH, AND A SRN STREAM WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE TN VALLEY, WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. STRONG S WINDS MAY BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS ON SUNDAY ESPECIALLY AT THE
COAST AS A LONG S FETCH AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOP. THE
ASSOCIATED ENHANCED LOW LEVEL WARMTH/MOISTURE TRANSPORT COULD
ALSO LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER, MORE SO
ACROSS S CT AND LONG ISLAND.
SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO MON MORNING IF NOT LONGER AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. HOW QUICKLY IT PULLS AWAY DEPENDS ON THE AMT
OF SRN/NRN STREAM INTERACTION AT THAT TIME, WHICH IS UNCERTAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE REMAINING NEAR NORMAL ON
THURSDAY. TEMPS AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
SHOULD GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON SAT FROM NYC NORTH/WEST,
THEN RANGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT SUNDAY INTO
MON.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR THE 24 HR TAF SITES, THEN
APPROACHING MVFR FOR THE 30 HR TAF SITES / CITY TERMINALS LATE
IN THE PERIOD.
WINDS DIMINISH AND BECOME MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS THEN INCREASE LATE TUESDAY
MORNING INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE OUT
OF THE SW, THEN BECOMING S AND SE ESPECIALLY FOR THE CITY AND
COASTAL TERMINALS BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT
VFR EARLY, THEN MVFR LATE.
WEDNESDAY
MVFR TO IFR WITH SHOWERS.
THURSDAY
BECOMING VFR WITH SHOWERS ENDING.
FRIDAY
VFR.
SATURDAY
VFR AND BREEZY.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. WINDS THEN INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE WATERS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KT POSSIBLE. OCEAN SEAS
WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 5 FT THURSDAY NIGHT AND 5-7 FT
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING FRIDAY
NIGHT. W-NW GALES MAY BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR
SHORE AND ALSO ON THE OUTER OCEAN WATERS.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAINING LESS THAN 0.25" TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AND LESS THAN 0.5" ON THURSDAY. BASIN AVG RAINFALL OF
1/2 TO 1 INCH APPEARS LIKELY FROM SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT FOR LOWER NEW YORK HARBOR, SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF
WESTERN LONG ISLAND, AND FOR LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO WESTERN LONG
ISLAND SOUND. ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AND/OR ADVISORIES ARE
LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE INCREASING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO A
FULL MOON (SUPERMOON). WHILE THERE COULD BE A FEW LOCATIONS THAT
GET CLOSE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE BEST CHANCE WILL
BE FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT HAVING THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR AND EVEN LOCALIZED MODERATE
FLOODING.
MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIME NEED ANYWHERE FROM 1/2 TO
1 1/2 FT OF SURGE TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS.
DURING THIS TIME, THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND FORCING OR
TIDAL PILING. THE MAIN FACTOR WILL BE THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND BACKGROUND POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALY. THE ETSS IS BIT
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE AS IT
HAS LOW PRESSURE PASSING TO THE SOUTH WITH EASTERLY WINDS
BRIEFLY INCREASING DURING THIS TIME.
EQUIPMENT
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) IS UNDERGOING
ITS FINAL STAGES OF TESTING, AND IS OPERATING AT FULL POWER.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FEB/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...FEB/DW
SHORT TERM...FEB
LONG TERM...FEB/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...FEB/GOODMAN
HYDROLOGY...FEB/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...
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