753
FXUS61 KOKX 121448
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1048 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY INTO MONDAY
BEFORE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2) BRIEF MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY VALUES
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE INTO MONDAY, THE RETURN S/SW FLOW WILL ADVECT MORE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA, ALLOWING DEW POINTS TO INCREASE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO THE LOW 70S.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST ALLOWING
ANOTHER SHOT OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 90S BOTH DAYS WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES OF 95+ DEGREES POSSIBLE AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND MOST LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DEW
POINTS/MIXING DEPTH (LOWER DEW POINTS AND MORE MIXING COULD HELP
LIMIT HEAT INDEX VALUES). HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 100
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE CURRENT FORECAST HOLDS, A
HEAT ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY DUE TO 2
DAYS OF APPARENT TEMPERATURES OF 95+ DEGREES. THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES DUE TO THE UPCOMING
NEW MOON ON JULY 14 AND A MINOR OF PUSH OF WATER TOWARD THE
COASTLINE IN AN E/SE FLOW TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING WATER
LEVELS IN SOME LOCATIONS TO AROUND OR JUST ABOVE MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD BENCHMARKS. THE LOCATIONS THAT ARE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE ARE
THE MORE VULNERABLE LOCALES OF COASTAL FAIRFIELD, SOUTHERN
NASSAU/QUEENS, AND TIDAL AREAS OF NE NJ AND STATEN ISLAND. A
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THESE LOCATIONS
COVERING THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
THE THREAT MAY LINGER LONGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE APPROACH
THE NEW MOON, HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS WATER LEVELS
JUST BELOW AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED THOUGH AS WE COULD STILL SKIRT NEAR MINOR FLOOD
THRESHOLDS. ANY FLOODING AT THAT TIME WOULD BE BRIEF/MINOR.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, MOVING OFFSHORE
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE IT WILL REMAIN INTO MONDAY.
VFR.
LIGHT NE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S/SE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SPEEDS AT OR UNDER 10 KT THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO UNDER 5 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS MAY VARY BY 1-2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: VFR. W-SW GUSTS 15-20 KT.
THURSDAY: VFR.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SOLID CHANCE OF SCA
CONDITIONS WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE AND OCEAN SEAS BUILDS TO 4-6 FT, HIGHEST EAST.
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 30 KT OUT EAST DURING THIS TIME.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH A
CONTINUED E-W LONGSHORE CURRENT DOMINANT ENVIRONMENT NOT TOO
MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THAT OF YESTERDAY, WHEN MANY BEACH REPORTS
CAME IN MODERATE WITH 2-3 FT WIND WAVES, 1-2-FT S-SE SWELL, AND
GREATER THAN USUAL TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE UPCOMING NEW
MOON ON THE 14TH. THE RISK COULD BECOME LOW MON MORNING, BUT
SHOULD REBOUND TO MODERATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS LIGHT S FLOW
INCREASES TO 10-15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, BUILDING WIND WAVES TO 3
FT.
RIP CURRENT OUTLOOK: THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HIGH RISK
SPANNING LATE DAY TUE INTO PART OF WED MORNING AS SEAS BUILD
TO 4-6 FT ON A SW FLOW INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT, AND GREATER
THAN USUAL TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING NEW
MOON.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW/MW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...MW
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