385
FXUS61 KOKX 221123
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
623 AM EST SAT FEB 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS
WEDNESDAY BEFORE A FRONTAL SYSTEM LIKELY AFFECTS THE REGION ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS THE
EXIT OF THIS SYSTEM BEFORE ANOTHER LOW COULD IMPACT US NEXT
WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
UPDATED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY
WITH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY. HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
IN LATE IN THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO MODERATE, BUT WILL STILL BE
BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS OVER THE REGION, AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE SOUTH. A
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW AND THE CLOUD COVER WILL PREVENT IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN SATURDAY MORNING LOWS.
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH MONDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO MODERATE. WITH LIGHT WINDS
SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUTLYING LOCATIONS AND THE LONG
ISLAND PINE BARRENS WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S, WITH UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
KEY POINTS:
* WARMER TEMPERATURES TUE-THU WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-40S TO MID-50S.
* MAINLY DRY TUE - WED, ALTHOUGH A SMALL CHANCE FOR A PASSING SHOWER
ON TUESDAY.
* THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MAY SEE OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH A
FRONTAL SYSTEM, ALTHOUGH TIMING AND INTENSITY STILL VARIES.
* ANOTHER LOW COULD IMPACT US THIS WEEKEND.
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES FAR TO THE
NORTH IN CANADA MONDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME A TROUGH DIGS INTO
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT, MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
TUESDAY. THIS TROUGH BRINGS WITH IT A WEAK SURFACE LOW. ANY PRECIP
THAT OCCURS WITH THIS WILL BE RAIN. HOWEVER, CAPPED CHANCES AT ONLY
SLIGHT, GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW'S POSITION MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH AND
THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE A LACK OF MOISTURE TO BRING ABOUT ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
HEIGHTS THEN RISE ALOFT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE SEASONAL TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-40S TO MID-50S. LOWS DURING
THIS TIMEFRAME LOOK TO BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE 30S.
TWO SOLUTIONS PRESENT THEMSELVES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
00Z GDPS/ICON/ECMWF BRING A SURFACE LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT DIGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US TO THE
NORTHEAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. TIMING AND INTENSITY STILL VARY
BETWEEN THESE THREE MODELS. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW, LIKELY WILL
SEE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE THE LONE WOLF
MODEL AT THE MOMENT, PRESENTING US WITH A DIFFERENT SOLUTION. ALL
MODELS DEVELOP A DEEPENING TROUGH AS A SOUTHERN STREAM JET STREAM
HELPS AMPLIFY THE TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE GFS APPEARS TO DEVELOP A
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH THIS JET STREAM WHICH
THEN MOVES UP INTO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVING IN FRIDAY AFTER IT. THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO
BRING A SURFACE LOW UP THE COAST, WHICH COULD END UP LEAVING
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COLDER THAN THE OTHER MODELS, LEADING TO SOME
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP IN THE INTERIOR DURING THE THURSDAY-THURSDAY
NIGHT TIMEFRAME. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE CAPPED POPS AT
CHANCE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOLLOW ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID/LOW-40S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS AT FREEZING INTO THE MID/LOW-20S.
GUIDANCE FOR THE WEEKEND STILL VARIES QUITE A BIT TO GO TO INTO ANY
SIGNIFICANT DETAIL. HOWEVER, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR ANOTHER LOW TO IMPACT US ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. DIMINISHING NW WINDS
BECOME W THEN SW AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON, DROPPING BELOW 10
KT TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MONDAY - MONDAY NIGHT: VFR.
TUESDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR COND POSSIBLE AT KSWF/KHPN,
OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
THE SCA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, HOWEVER, OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO
25 KT REMAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER
ZONES, UNTIL 800 AM. OTHERWISE, WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SUB
ADVISORY ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH MONDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
INCREASING S-SW FLOW MAY BRING POTENTIAL FOR 25-KT GUSTS AND
5-FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN WATERS MON NIGHT INTO TUE AFTER A WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW SCA CRITERIA THEREAFTER.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE START OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...BR/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...BR/MET
HYDROLOGY...BR/MET
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