709
FXUS61 KOKX 021916
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
316 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
THUNDERSTORMS, LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
2) MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT THE OCEAN BEACHES INTO
THIS EVENING. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK EXPECTED FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES
ON MONDAY WITH HIGH SURF FORECAST.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
INGREDIENTS ARE SETTING UP FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. GENERAL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A FASTER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT WITH SUCH
HIGH VALUES OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY WILL EASILY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE >1" PER HOUR RAINFALL
RATES. THE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS WHERE THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAPPEN.
EVEN THOUGH COVERAGE AND LOCATIONS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LOW
CONFIDENCE, GIVEN THE HIGH RAINFALL RATE POTENTIAL, OPTED TO ISSUE A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE MOST FLASH FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS IN THE CWA,
PRIMARILY URBAN NE NEW JERSEY, TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. IF
CONFIDENCE IN THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS INCREASES FOR OTHER AREAS,
THE FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS OUT INTO THE OH VALLEY BY THIS EVENING,
SHEARING OUT AS IT DOES SO. IN ADDITION, A 300MB, 110KT JET STREAK
PASSES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, WITH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH A SLOWLY
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE, AND APPROACHES THE
LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES INTO TONIGHT WITH A TROPICAL-LIKE
AIRMASS MOVING IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH >2" PWAT EXPECTED TO
OVERTAKE THE AREA MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCREASES INTO THIS EVENING
AS A WARM FRONT MOVES IN. ANY CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
TRAIN AS WELL, INCREASING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT, WITH
LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALIGNED.
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA LOOKS TO OCCUR LATE TONIGHT
INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. IN GENERAL, TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO
BE 0.75 - 1.5" WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNT OF UPWARD OF 3-4" POSSIBLE IN
ANY TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS. CAMS HAVE BEEN HINTING TOWARD A GENERAL
EASTWARD PUSH OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH SEVERAL MODELS
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL OF A TRAINING LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND IN S CT.
DESPITE THE TREND, FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS LOW ACROSS NE
NJ (~1" IN AN HOUR AND 1-3" IN 3 HOURS) GIVEN THE RAIN FROM LAST
WEEK. 12Z HREF GUIDANCE HAS EXPANDED THE 10% CHANCE OF 3" IN 3
HOURS OVER NE NJ INTO S CT. THOUGH ANY FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BE MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE, THE LOW THRESHOLD
NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE MOST FLOOD-PRONE AREAS OF NE NJ
HAS RESULTED IN A FLOOD WATCH BEING ISSUED. THE WPC URBAN
RAINFALL RATE DASHBOARD IS STILL ADVERTISING THE POSSIBILITY OF
>1" PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES FOR NYC AND SURROUNDING AREAS ON
MONDAY FROM THIS EVENT. WPC EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL TO INCLUDE ALMOST THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR EASTERN LI AND SE CT WHERE A MARGINAL RISK IS
MAINTAINED FOR MONDAY.
A LESSER THREAT WOULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOMORROW BECOMING
SEVERE WITH AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND AROUND 30KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR.
WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WAVEWATCH HAS TRENDED HIGHER COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY RUN
REGARDING WAVE HEIGHTS AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS FOR MONDAY.
44017 HAS POTENTIAL WITH THIS FORECAST FROM WAVEWATCH TO GET TO 11
FT WAVES. 44025 HAS POTENTIAL WITH THIS FORECAST FROM WAVEWATCH TO
GET TO 9 FT.
NWPS GUIDANCE ALSO INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS WELL COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST REGARDING WAVE HEIGHTS.
THE INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME MORE GUSTY AND INCREASE
THE FETCH, BUILDING THE WAVES AND SWELL TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS REACH UP TO 8 FT. THE MAIN SWELL WILL BE
AROUND 8 FT FROM THE SOUTH WITH PERIOD OF 8 TO 9 SECONDS.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
FOR THE OCEAN BEACHES.
THERE COULD BE ANOTHER HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR SUFFOLK OCEAN
BEACHES TUESDAY WITH OTHERWISE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
THE OCEAN BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 3
RAIN TAPERS BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT STALLED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY RETURNS BY
WEDNESDAY AM AS A WARM FRONT. THUS, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA, AT LEAST
INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A SLOW MOVING FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND A
WEAK WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WEAK WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
PIVOTS THROUGH TOWARDS MONDAY EVENING.
MVFR AND IFR BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP FURTHER EAST AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE AREA AND SHOWERS DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INCREASE AFTER 06Z. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR KGON AND
POSSIBLE FOR KISP LATE AT NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
S/SSE GUSTS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WINDS BACK MORE TO THE SE AHEAD
OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW CHANCE OF LLWS FOR KISP AND KGON EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMD MAY BE NEEDED WITH CHANGING FLIGHT CATS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY AFTERNOON: IFR POSSIBLE EARLY, OTHERWISE MVFR WITH SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. S/SW WINDS G20KT.
MONDAY NIGHT: SUB VFR EARLY FOR FAR EASTERN TERMINALS, OTHERWISE VFR
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW-N AT 5-10 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: SUB-VFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
FOR THE OCEAN AND SOME EASTERN NON-OCEAN ZONES LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A SOUTH WIND PICKS UP AND SEAS BUILD. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SW AND SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED AROUND
5 TO 7 FT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP THEREAFTER.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ331-
332-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JM/MW
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