193
FXUS61 KOKX 182042 CCA
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
442 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY FOR NE NJ AND NYC METRO 11AM TUESDAY TO 8PM
WEDNESDAY. AIR QUALITY ALERTS FOR UNHEALTHY FOR SENSITIVE
GROUPS AIR QUALITY FOR HIGH OZONE FOR BOTH REST OF TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING AS WELL AS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OCEAN WATERS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST REGION. AIRMASS GETTING
RELATIVELY MORE HUMID ALSO HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. HEAT ADVISORY
NE NJ AND NYC TUESDAY LATE MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EARLY
EVENING.
2) POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING. HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBILITY.
3) MUCH COOLER AIRMASS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS.
4) COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS CONTINUE THIS WEEK WITH GOOD
BOATING WEATHER, AND WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THAT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS NOW EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGING ALOFT
HAS KEPT THE AREA DRY AND WARM. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY WITH STRONG RIDGING ALOFT.
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SW WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED A FEW HOURS LATER
WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, THEREBY ALLOWING
FOR MORE DAYTIME HEATING AND LESS CLOUDS.
HEAT ADVISORY FOR NE NJ AND NYC METRO 11AM TUESDAY TO 8PM
WEDNESDAY. THIS IS THE FIRST HIGH HEAT INDEX EVENT OF THE YEAR
FOR NE NJ AND NYC.
WARMEST DAY TUESDAY WITH SW FLOW AND DAYTIME MIXING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S FOR ALL OF NYC, NE NJ, LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY AND MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT AS WELL AS MUCH OF
NASSAU COUNTY NY. MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MUCH
NE NJ AND NYC METRO FOR TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES. DEWPOINTS
ARE MOSTLY IN THE LOW 60S TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES FOR BROOKLYN AND QUEENS BUT STILL
GETTING IN THE MID 90S ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THOSE ZONES.
THIS SAME DISTRIBUTION EXISTS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
WEDNESDAY AS WELL BUT A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON AVERAGE. THE
DEWPOINTS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH VALUES
MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. SO FOR WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES A
LITTLE LESS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY BUT DEWPOINTS A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WEDNESDAY
FOR MUCH OF NE NJ AND NYC WITH CORRESPONDING HEAT INDICES IN THE
MID 90S. AGAIN, SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDICES FOR BROOKLYN AND QUEENS BUT STILL GETTING IN THE MID 90S
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THOSE ZONES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THERE IS SOME INDICATION WITHIN THE FORECAST MODELS SHOWING A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION.
POSSIBILITY TOO FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM, WITH QUICK
DOWNBURST OF WIND. THIS IS JUST MARGINAL RISK. CAMS INDICATE
THIS POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION WITHIN THEIR REFLECTIVITY FIELDS.
THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE IN FIRST FOR LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN CT LATTER HALF OF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
CROSSES THROUGH THE NYC METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS BY EARLY
EVENING. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL. FLOODING THREAT MINIMAL WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
ATMOSPHERE AND QUICK STEERING FLOW. HOWEVER, A QUICK PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
MID LEVEL RIDGE SUPPRESSED FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY BUT THEN MOVES NORTHWARD
INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EVENTUALLY THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. IN ITS PLACE, LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. MODEL VARIANCES ON HOW FAR
NORTH THE LOW REACHES.
MAX TEMPERATURES FORECAST DECREASE BY NEAR 15 TO 20 DEGREES FOR
THURSDAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY. MAX TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THURSDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW PRESENTS
DOWNSLOPE WARMING FIRST HALF OF THE DAY, ALLOWING FOR COASTAL
LOCATIONS TO BE RELATIVELY WARMER THAN INLAND.
COOLING TREND CONTINUES FRIDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
MAINLY IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 AND THEN JUST LOW TO MID 60S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SATURDAY.
OVERALL, THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE EASTERLY REALLY
LIMITING THE DAYTIME WARMTH WITH MORE MARITIME INFLUENCE. ALONG
WITH THAT ASIDE FROM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
BE MAINLY DRY, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
FARTHER AWAY AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST.
KEY MESSAGE 4
COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WATER TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE 50S. THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE
HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY
IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES
OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO
AVOID THIS THREAT.
AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY. T
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT WITH A
SOME LOCATIONS G15-18KT. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT TO UNDER 10 KT
FROM THE S/SW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY WITH GUSTS ONCE AGAIN TO NEAR 20KT. GUSTS MAY BE MORE
OCCASIONAL AT TIMES.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY: VFR. S/SW WINDS 10-15G20-25KT INTO EVE. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVE, MAINLY NORTH OF
NYC TERMINALS WITH BRIEF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY: VFR, GIVING WAY TO POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
S/SW WINDS 10-15G20-25KT DAY INTO EVE. PEAK GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT
POSSIBLE. NW WINDSHIFT IN THE EVENING.
THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. SCA ON THE OCEAN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, MARGINAL SCA FOR NON-
OCEAN WATERS BUT MOSTLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA. POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAINLY
BELOW SCA THEREAFTER UNTIL HOLIDAY WEEKEND WHEN SCA CONDITIONS
POTENTIALLY RETURN.
COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEK AS WATER TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE 50S. THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE
HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY
IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES
OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO
AVOID THIS THREAT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MAY 19:
KEWR: 98/1962
KBDR: 89/2017
KNYC: 99/1962
KLGA: 96/2017
KJFK: 92/2017
KISP: 89/2017
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MAY 17:
KEWR: 68/2015
KBDR: 60/2025
KNYC: 70/1906
KLGA: 68/1965
KJFK: 63/1965
KISP: 62/2015
MAY 18:
KEWR: 74/2017
KBDR: 66/2017
KNYC: 75/2017
KLGA: 80/2017
KJFK: 65/2017
KISP: 63/1977
MAY 19:
KEWR: 67/1986
KBDR: 66/2017
KNYC: 68/1986
KLGA: 68/2017
KJFK: 67/2017
KISP: 65/2017
MAY 20:
KEWR: 72/1996
KBDR: 61/2019
KNYC: 74/1996
KLGA: 77/1996
KJFK: 63/1996
KISP: 62/1996
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>007-
009>011.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
176-178.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NYZ072>075-176-178.
NJ...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR NJZ004-
006-103>108.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM
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