850
FXUS61 KOKX 142328
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED
DUE TO INCREASING WILDFIRE SMOKE.
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES CONTINUES INTO
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES MAY BE LIMITED BY WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM
CANADA.
2) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
3) HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY, PARTICULARLY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING (SEE MARINE DISCUSSION).
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DAY 1 OF OUR WARMING TREND TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY WELL INTO THE 80S
AND CLOSE TO 90F THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS HAS ALLOWED HEAT INDEX VALUES TO
APPROACH 90-95F IN MANY PLACES ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON AS WE CONTINUE TO
SEE SOMEWHAT FILTERED SUNSHINE. AS SUCH, THE HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. UNFORTUNATELY,
THERE WON'T BE MUCH RELIEF TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S,
WITH SOME SPOTS LIKELY STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW 80F.
TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH 925MB TEMPERATURES
ONCE AGAIN APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING 26C. UNDER FULL SUNSHINE,
THIS WOULD YIELD A WARMER DAY THAN TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
90S TO AROUND 100F. HOWEVER, A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN CENTRAL
ONTARIO. HIGH LEVEL SMOKE FROM THESE FIRES IS ALREADY OVERSPREADING
THE REGION TODAY, AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN MOSTLY ALOFT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT COULD BECOME OPAQUE
ENOUGH TO LIMIT HEATING POTENTIAL TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT NEAR SURFACE SMOKE WILL INCREASE
DRAMATICALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING ALONG/JUST BEHIND THE WEAK FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AT THE LEAST, EXPECT THE SMOKE WILL MAKE FOR NICE
SUNRISES/SUNSETS, BUT IT COULD ALSO PUT OUR HEAT ADVISORY FOR
WEDNESDAY IN JEOPARDY BY KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORY ALONE FOR NOW GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY
GOING FORWARD.
THE WEAK FRONT WEDNESDAY EVENING COULD SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES THROUGH, THOUGH CAMS ARE SPLIT ON
THIS. WE WILL BE CAPPED BY A WARM LAYER AROUND 850 MB, WHICH WOULD
SERVE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL, BUT HAVE GONE AHEAD AND
INTRODUCED 15-30% POPS AS WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN FOR LATE WEEK, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY HOT BUT LESS HUMID. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT PLEASE
CONTINUE TO TAKE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS AS IT WILL STILL BE HOT,
EVEN IF IT'S NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR HEADLINE ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AT THE END OF THE WEEK
BECOMES MORE AFFECTED BY THE LARGE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR
THE WEEKEND. POTENTIALLY SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH DEEPER TROUGHING LOOKING TO SET UP NEXT WEEK OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS.
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS PATTERN A BIT MORE THAN
USUAL. LATEST GFS SHOWS TWO MORE DISTINCT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND, KEEPING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH SUNDAY,
WHERE OTHER GUIDANCE HAS A DRYING TREND FOR SUNDAY. REGARDLESS,
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.
IT IS TOO FAR OUT FOR DETAILS ON STRENGTH/SEVERITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST CIPS AND CSU MLP GUIDANCE SHOWS LOW
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN THE AIRMASS, ANYTHING THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE LATEST GFS SHOWS PWAT
VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 AND 2.0 INCHES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE
REMAINS LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE NBM 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE 72HR
QPF ENDING WEDNESDAY AT 12Z. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE LARGE SPREAD IN
OVERALL GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY. THE SPREAD IS ROUGHLY BETWEEN
A FEW TENTHS TO 2.5 INCHES OVER THIS 3 DAY PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THROUGH EARLY MORNING WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE.
WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NW DAYTIME WED AND
LOWERING TO THE SFC. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SLANTWISE VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AS WELL.
WSW WINDS 10-15KT WITH SOME GUSTS EITHER SIDE OF 20 KT EXPECTED
AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS THIS EVENING, BEFORE DROPPING OFF
AFTER 00Z. WINDS THEN BECOME W THEN NW AND INCREASE TO
10-15G20KT BY 14Z-16Z.
LLWS EXPECTED TONIGHT AT KSWF FROM ABOUT 03Z-11Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: SMOKE COULD LOWER VSBY TO MVFR ESPECIALLY
E OF THE NYC METROS. A LATE DAY TSTM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
BRIEF IFR VSBY IS ALSO POSSIBLE, COVERAGE APPEARS SPARSE ATTM.
WNW WINDS 10-15G20KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SMOKE WITH MVFR/LOCAL IFR VSBY POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY: SMOKE WITH MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING, OTHERWISE
VFR. W WINDS G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/TSTMS.
MARINE
A SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, LI SOUND EAST OF
THE CT RIVER, AND THE EASTERN AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS. THIS IS
DUE TO A INCREASING SW FLOW WITH GUSTS OF 25-30KT. OCEAN SEAS
WILL BUILD TO 4-7 FT, HIGHEST EAST. SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO END FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS AND THE OCEAN WATERS BETWEEN
SANDY HOOK AND FIRE ISLAND INLET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
REMAINDER OF THE OCEAN ZONES OUT 20 NM WILL STAY UP INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO LINGERING SEAS OF 5-6 FT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH
SATURDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
THE RIP RISK IS INCREASING TO HIGH THROUGH LATE DAY, JUST AS
MOST LIFEGUARDS AND BEACH PATROLS FINISH ROUTINE DAILY
OPERATIONS. THE HIGHER RISK, WILL BE ENHANCED BY GREATER THAN
USUAL TIDAL FLUCTUATIONS DUE TO THE UPCOMING NEW MOON.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO START WITH A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT WITH 4-6
FT SW WIND WAVES, GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH THE DAY AS WINDS WSW
WINDS DECREASE. EASTERN LI BEACHES ARE LIKELY TO HOLD ONTO THE
HIGH RISK THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WIND WAVES REMAIN ELEVATED AT
3-5FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHILE NYC/ W LI BEACHES LIKELY
FALL BACK TO A MODERATE RISK.
FORECAST IS LEANED TOWARDS A GREATER MARGIN OF SAFETY.
THE RISK LOWERS TO MODERATE FOR THURSDAY AS SWELL CONTINUES
TO WEAKEN. A LINGERING 2-3 FT 6S SW SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH
ABOUT A 10 KT S FLOW TO BRING THE MODERATE RISK. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHERN BROOKLYN AND QUEENS TO LOWER TO A LOW
RISK BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS AS THEY SHOULD BE LESS IMPACTED BY THE
SW SWELL.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 15:
KEWR: 104/1995
KBDR: 97/1995
KNYC: 102/1995
KLGA: 103/1995
KJFK: 99/1983
KISP: 97/1995
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 15:
KEWR: 82/1995
KBDR: 76/2013
KNYC: 84/1995
KLGA: 83/1995
KJFK: 79/1995
KISP: 77/1995
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ005>010.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ009>012.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ067>075-078-
176>179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ079>081.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ332-340-
345-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
DISCUSSION...MH/JT
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...MH/JT
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