816
FXUS61 KOKX 051945
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
345 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IN FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL HAS INCREASED, ALTHOUGH
THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL/GREATEST FLOODING
STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. A MODERATE RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN NY (EXCLUDING NYC AND LONG ISLAND) AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
THE AREA (EXCLUDING FAR EASTERN LONG ISLAND) FOR MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT (SEE MARINE DISCUSSION BELOW).
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE MONDAY COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. FLOODING MAY BE LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT.
2) A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA THROUGH LATE MONDAY. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES RIDE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LATE MONDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY.
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY BE MOST WIDESPREAD TO THE NORTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF NYC THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOME CAMS
ARE HINTING AT SHOWERS/STORMS FILLING IN TO THE EAST AFTER 21Z/5 PM
AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z/8 PM THIS EVENING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS BETTER UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT/JET ENERGY MOVES INTO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS ARE STILL FAVORABLE FOR TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
RATES/FLOODING THROUGH LATE MONDAY DUE TO A VERY HUMID AIR MASS
OVER THE REGION AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. PWATS WILL BE AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE, ALTHOUGH
PWATS OF 2+ INCHES MAY PERIODICALLY ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE AREA, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN DAILY MAX SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY VALUES. MEAN FLOW WILL LARGELY BE PARALLEL TO THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SO TRAINING IS LIKELY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BACKBUILDING. 12Z HREF NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES FOR MORE THAN
3 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS HIGHLIGHTS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
HUDSON VALLEY AND WESTERN LOCAL NJ COUNTIES IN A 30 PERCENT
CONTOUR FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WHICH IS TYPICALLY A
GOOD INDICATION OF FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR THIS AREA. WPC
HAS EXPANDED A MODERATE ERO INTO THIS AREA TO HIGHLIGHT THE
ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE FLASH FLOOD RISK MAY SHIFT A
BIT FARTHER EASTWARD ON MONDAY AND SIMILAR HREF PROBABILITIES
ARE IN PLACE OVER PORTIONS OF THE NYC METRO AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH UP TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NJ. A
MODERATE ERO HAS BEEN INTRODUCED TO THE ENTIRE CWA FOR
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. FLOODING IMPACTS WOULD BE HIGHEST IN URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IN ADDITION TO THE MOST RESPONSIVE
RIVERS/CREEKS/STREAMS.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS, STORM TOTAL QPF THROUGH TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
OF 4+ INCHES. RAINFALL RATES WILL LIKELY BE 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE. THE MAIN AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FORECAST IS WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL
TOTALS AND RESULTING FLOODING WILL OCCUR AND WILL DEPEND ON THE
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GIVEN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT, A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE THREAT IS RATHER
ISOLATED/LOW GIVEN LACK OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY. ANY STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE RELATED TO WET DOWNBURSTS IN ANY STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO GROW DECENT CORES. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE ACROSS NJ, THE HUDSON VALLEY, NYC, AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARBY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH TONIGHT.
MOSTLY MVFR TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHRA AND PROB30 TSRA CHANCES
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IFR LIKELY DEVELOPS THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST THE DAY ON MONDAY. RAIN BECOMES STEADIER
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDER
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, CHANCES ARE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS.
WINDS SE-E UNDER 10KT, GRADUALLY BACKING E-NE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT NO THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR BEFORE
22-23Z. THUNDER CHANCES ARE LOW TONIGHT, SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NOW THROUGH MONDAY MIGHT BE LIMITED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY PM AND NIGHT: IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER. NE WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20KT.
TUESDAY: IFR AND RAIN IN THE MORNING. IMPROVING TO MVFR IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY: VFR.
THURSDAY: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR IN THE MORNING, CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AND MVFR IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LONG ISLAND
SOUND FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND FROM FIRE
ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT IN ADDITION TO THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS
FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING TO
6 AM TUESDAY MORNING. EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS TO 25 TO AS
HIGH AS NEAR 30 KNOTS AND WAVES OF 4 TO PERIODICALLY 5 FEET ARE
EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. WAVES MAY REMAIN ELEVATED INTO
TUESDAY.
RIP CURRENTS: A LOW RISK IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. INCREASING E
FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THE RISK BACK TO MODERATE FOR
MONDAY. FLOW CONTINUES TO SHIFT OUT OF THE NE BUT GIVEN
PERSISTING E/SE SWELL A MODERATE IS MAINTAINED FOR TUESDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ069>075-
176-178.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ331-332-335-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR
ANZ345-350-353.
DISCUSSION...AM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...AM/MW
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