686
FXUS61 KOKX 211133
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 AM EDT SAT MAR 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CT. A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM FOR REDUCED
VISIBILITIES OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS AT TIMES FOR THIS AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING.
2) ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
FOR SUNDAY, THE NEXT RAIN EVENT BEGINS AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. BEFORE THE RAIN MOVES IN THOUGH, WARM AIR ADVECTION ON
A SSW FLOW WILL MAKE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURE DESPITE THE
ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS. WESTERN AREAS ACROSS NYC, NE NJ, AND THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S
FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WHILE LOCATIONS FARTHER EAST WILL ONLY
SEE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S THANKS TO FLOW OFF THE COOLER
WATERS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE WAS AN ISOLATED 70
DEGREE READING ACROSS NE NJ.
RAIN MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY. CHANCES
FOR RAIN INCREASE DURING THE DAY AND RAIN BECOMES LIKELY SUNDAY
NIGHT. ELEVATED INSTABILITY NOTED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS OF
400-500 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE NJ, NYC, AND LONG ISLAND, SO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT ONLY FOR A SHORT
WINDOW, FROM 5 TO 8 PM AS OF NOW.
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
DEVELOPING BEHIND IT. THIS CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING IN THE AREA. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAY. FOR SOME INTERIOR AREAS,
THERE IS A CHANCE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX HEADING INTO MONDAY. NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE
FREEZING. OTHERWISE, RAIN CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH DECREASING
CHANCES MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BUT BEST CHANCES ARE FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL PRETTY GOOD SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO KEY IN ON EXACT
TIMING. STUCK CLOSE TO THE NBM WITH LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
MODELS. IF THE ECMWF PANS OUT, WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD FILTER IN BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WELL INLAND.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE.
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED EAST AND WE ARE JUST LEFT WITH SOME LOW
STRATUS/FOG UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. FLIGHT
CATEGORIES ARE GENERALLY MVFR OR IFR, WITH SOME ISOLATED LOWER
CONDITIONS. FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BETWEEN
12-14Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. CIGS WILL LOWER LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD, WITH MVFR CIGS
RETURNING CLOSER TO 12Z SUNDAY.
WINDS START OFF LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KT AND BEGIN TO GUST TO AROUND 20 KT
AROUND 14Z. GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL OFF IN THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES CHANGES MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO
DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT NIGHT FOR THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
MONDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER BECOMING VFR. N WINDS G20 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. N WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN. SOME MIXING POSSIBLE
IN THE INTERIOR. W WINDS 10-15 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
OCEAN SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT THIS MORNING SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST. WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET, SCA GOES UNTIL 2PM SATURDAY
AND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET, SCA GOES UNTIL 6PM SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, WIND GUSTS ARE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FOR SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ALL WATERS ARE BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. WAVES ON THE OCEAN WATERS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON A SSW FLOW, AND SCA MAY BE NEEDED FROM FIRE
ISLAND INLET AND POINTS EAST, BUT THIS SEEMS MARGINAL RIGHT NOW.
HOWEVER, WAVES BUILD SOMEWHAT SUNDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY FOLLOWS ON TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS IN A SW FLOW
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS ALSO SEEMS MARGINAL AS OF
NOW.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JP
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