111
FXUS61 KOKX 020734
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
ON MONDAY AT THE ATLANTIC FACING BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL, AND
THUNDERSTORMS, LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. TIMING OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL
HAS SHIFTED LATER, WITH SLIGHTLY REDUCED AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BOARD.
2) MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY, BECOMING A HIGH RISK ON
MONDAY. POTENTIAL HIGH SURF ON MONDAY.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
THINKING WITH THIS UPDATE, AS THE INGREDIENTS ARE SETTING UP FOR A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. GIVEN THE LATER TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, AND A
SLIGHT REDUCTION IN OVERALL AMOUNTS, A FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN
ISSUED ATTM.
A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WITH ATTENDANT CLOSED LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS EJECTS OUT INTO THE OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY EVENING,
SHEARING OUT AS IT DOES SO. IN ADDITION, A 300MB, 110KT JET STREAK
PASSES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY, WITH THE LOCAL AREA ON THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH A SLOWLY
MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE, AND APPROACHES THE
LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TODAY, WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION COMMENCING
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, A TROPICAL-LIKE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE AS
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN FACT,
BLENDED TOTAL PW SATELLITE PRODUCT ALREADY DEPICTING A PLUME OF >2"
PWAT ADVECTING FROM THE SOUTHEAST AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHCENTRAL PA AS
OF 1 AM THIS MORNING. TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY, BUT AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACH, LIFT INCREASES AND RAIN WITH
POSSIBLE THUNDER BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. ANY
CONVECTION HAS THE POTENTIAL TO TRAIN AS WELL, INCREASING THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION THREAT, WITH LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALIGNED.
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION, AND THUS THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING,
STILL LOOKS TO OCCUR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. CAMS HAVE BACKED OFF
A BIT TONIGHT WITH BOTH TOTAL AMOUNTS AND PRECIPITATION RATES. TOTAL
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE IN THE 1-2" RANGE AREA-WIDE, WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF NYC AND IN SOUTHERN CT. FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE IS A BIT LOW ACROSS NE NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY (~1-
2" IN AN HOUR AND 1-3" IN 3 HOURS) GIVEN THE RAIN FROM LAST WEEK.
HOWEVER, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL REMAINS EAST OF THOSE AREAS
WHERE FFG IS LOWEST, BUT IT DOES BEAR WATCHING. 00Z HREF NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE EITHER, WITH ONLY SMALL AREAS OF 10% OF 3"/3 HRS DURING
THE EVENT, SUGGESTING THAT ANY FLASH FLOODING WOULD BE MORE ISOLATED
IN NATURE. THE WPC URBAN RAINFALL RATE DASHBOARD IS STILL
ADVERTISING THE POSSIBILITY OF >1" PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES FOR NYC
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THIS EVENT. WPC DOES MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WHICH
INCLUDES NORTHEASTERN NJ, NYC, MUCH OF CT, WESTERN LONG ISLAND, AND
THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, WITH A MARGINAL RISK ELSEWHERE, FOR MONDAY.
FINALLY, THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALSO INCREASE LATE TODAY WITH MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING BOTH MODEST INSTABILITY (500-1000J/KG MUCAPE) AND
SOME SHEAR, SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON.
WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY SWELL HAS BROUGHT DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
TO SOME OF THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. OFFSHORE
BUOYS THIS MORNING HAVE SHOWN SOME DECREASE IN THE SWELL AT 3
FT 4S. THIS SUPPORTS GOING A BIT LOWER TODAY WITH A MODERATE
RISK, BUT LIFE-THREATNENING RIPS CURRENTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN
THE SURF ZONE.
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY IS
FORECAST TO PRODUCE SOUTHERLY SWELLS OF 8-9FT 8S. WITH THE SWELL
NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST, THIS WILL MAXIMIZE LARGE
BREAKERS IN THE SURF ZONE. POTENTIAL SURF HEIGHT IS 6 TO 9FT. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A HIGH
RIP CURRENT RISK ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
RAIN TAPERS LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY. THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT STALLED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY RETURNS BY
WEDNESDAY AM AS A WARM FRONT. THUS, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT IN THE AREA, AT LEAST
INTO THURSDAY.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TODAY, SENDING A WEAK WARM FRONT INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
A VERY HUMID AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE COOLER OCEAN WATERS HAS
RESULTED IN CEILINGS AT OR AROUND 900 FT ACROSS KISP AND KGON.
HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS DRIER AIR RIGHT ABOVE THIS
LAYER AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH MIXING
(STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT) WILL BRING DRIER AIR TO THE
SURFACE. THUS, OCCASIONAL LOW CEILINGS AND FOG AT THESE
TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. KGON HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
REMAINING AT IFR OR LOWER.
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS RETURN TONIGHT AS A WARM
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA AND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA.
S/SSE FLOW CONTINUES OVERNIGHT JUST UNDER 10 KT, THEN INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25KT DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS WINDS BACK MORE
TO THE SE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN VEER BACK TO
THE SOUTH LATER TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
BRIEF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING PRIOR TO 12Z. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THAT IT WILL LINGER FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.
AMD MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR START TIME OF
MVFR/-SHRA.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER IN SHRA AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY-THURSDAY: SUB-VFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. S WINDS
G20KT MONDAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY
FOR THE OCEAN AND SOME EASTERN NON-OCEAN ZONES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY AS A SOUTH WIND PICKS UP AND SEAS BUILD. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE OCEAN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS THE WINDS VEER MORE TO THE SW AND SEAS REMAINING ELEVATED AROUND
5 TO 7 FT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP THEREAFTER.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ332-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
MONDAY NIGHT FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...DBR
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...DBR
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