721
FXUS61 KOKX 082323
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
723 PM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE REMAINDER OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS ENDED.
THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING, BUT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS ENDED.
2) GRADUALLY LOWERING HUMIDITY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
3) THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND MAY PERSIST EACH DAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED. THERE ARE A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS JUST NORTH OF ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES THAT MAY
SHIFT S AND E THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AND SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH 10 PM.
THERE IS ALSO A THUNDERSTORM NORTH OF NEW LONDON THAT WILL JUST
PASS NORTH AND EAST THROUGH 8PM.
ONCE THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES EARLY THIS EVENING,
ANY CONVECTION WILL SHUT DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST.
SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A CONVECTION FREE DAY WITH A DRIER, CAPPED
AIRMASS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE FORECAST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE WESTERLIES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE THE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE
CHANGES LITTLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH 85H TEMPS HOLDING CLOSE
TO 18C, A DEEP-LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN
SOME DRIER AIR INTO THE LOW LEVELS. WHILE THE NBM HAS DONE WELL
OF LATE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS, IT IS OFTEN TOO DEFICIENT IN A
WESTERLY FLOW. FOR DEW POINTS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STAYED BELOW
THE NBM AND WEIGHTED TOWARD MOS. THIS KEEPS HEAT INDICES
GENERALLY BELOW 95. THUS, PLAN TO HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE HEAT
ADVISORY INTO SUNDAY. REGARDLESS, IT WOULD BE VERY MARGINAL,
PERHAPS TOUCHING 95 IN A FEW SPOTS.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES WILL LOWER TUESDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE
FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE AIR MASS IS NOT AS HUMID
ON MONDAY, BUT INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY IN NJ. A FRONTAL SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK SUPPORTING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH
SUNDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY PUSHING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THIS EVENING WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT,
BECOMING W AROUND 5 KT BY DAY BREAK. W-WNW WINDS INCREASE SUNDAY
MORNING TO 10-13 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COASTAL TERMINALS MAY BACK
MORE TO THE SW IN THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AT EWR, TEB, AND LGA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR IN THE
EVENING.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING EACH DAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE MODELED TO REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS RIGHT THRU THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
INVOF OF TSTMS HOWEVER.
RIP CURRENTS: SW FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WIND WAVES WILL LEAD TO A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY. A DIMINISHING SWELL
WILL RESULT IN A LOW RISK FOR MONDAY
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-
176-178.
NJ...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW/DS
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DW
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