572
FXUS61 KOKX 051732
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
132 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT WITH SUMMER LIKE TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL,
HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN TOLERABLE.
2) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STORMS POTENTIALLY SEVERE.
SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO A PORTION OF SUNDAY.
3) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARMING THROUGH MID WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH SOME
LOWER 90S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND THE METROPOLITAN AREA.
THE COLUMN WILL REMAIN DRY WITH DEW POINT READINGS PRIMARILY IN THE
50S TODAY RESULTING IN VERY WARM TO HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT
FEW DAYS WILL CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE
RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO
THE REGION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN IN TEMPERATURES INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, BEFORE THEN TEMPERATURES
CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S RIGHT ALONG THE COAST,
TO MAINLY LOWER HALF OF THE 90S ELSEWHERE. DEW POINT READINGS WILL
GET CLOSER TO 60 ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH AN
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER, THIS WILL NOT BE HUMID ENOUGH TO
RESULT IN HEAT HEADLINES WITH THE REGION FALLING SHORT OF HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A COLD FRONT GRADUALLY PUSHES THROUGH AS THE
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS IT CROSSES THE REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM ON SUNDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING GETTING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION,
ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
COOLER, BUT STILL QUITE WARM WITH MAINLY MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S, AND A
FEW LOWER 80S ACROSS EASTER COASTAL SECTIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A FAIRLY POTENT NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL
SLIDE SE INTO THE REGION TOWARDS SATURDAY EVENING / NIGHT. POPS
INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NW THIRD OF THE
AREA. FAIRLY GOOD INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT WITH THE LIKELIHOOD
OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME NAM
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING CLOSER TO 2000 J/KG. STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE
LACKING INITIALLY WITH MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE PREDICTING UP TO AND
JUST BELOW 30KT OF BULK SHEAR THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW STORMS COULD
POP UP ALONG ANY SEA BREEZE RELATED BOUNDARIES / LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ZONES BUT WOULD LIKELY BE MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE FINE TUNED IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECAST UPDATES, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER SIDE TO START.
THEN, TOWARDS SATURDAY EVENING THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER WITH POPS
CLIMBING TO LIKELY AND HIGH END CHANCE AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES WITH THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINNING TO DIG AND THE FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION. BULK SHEAR VALUES SHOULD NUDGE UP TO AROUND 30 TO
PERHAPS 35 KT. THIS WOULD LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION, WITH THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
WITH NOTICEABLE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, ALONG WITH HAIL AS A POTENTIAL
SECONDARY STORM HAZARD. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS THE
ESSENTIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK, AND
THE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE BEST FORCING APPEARS WILL NOT COINCIDE MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING,
SO THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE STORMS REMAINS IN QUESTION. BEHIND THE
FRONT IT LOOKS BETTER FOR SUNDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND,
ESPECIALLY FURTHER EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AND THE
TROUGH AXIS TAKING AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TO COMPLETELY
PIVOT THROUGH. A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO CT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WITH THE EASTERN TROUGH GETTING OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OFF TO THE WEST SHOULD SLOWLY BEGIN
TO BUILD FOR THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. THUS MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED INTO MID WEEK.
PORTIONS OF THE REGION COULD SEE DAYTIME MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 90 ONCE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
LOW END CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONFINED TO
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
WNW-WSW WINDS OF 10 KT TODAY ARE BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF
BACKING SW-S AT COASTAL TERMINALS. THIS SEA BREEZE WILL REACH
SOME TERMINALS LATER THAN OTHERS AND MAY NOT REACH ALL
TERMINALS. WINDS DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT TO 5 KT OR LESS FROM THE
SW. SW WINDS THEN INCREASE INTO TOMORROW EVENTUALLY REACHING 10-13KT
G19-23KT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AN OCCASIONAL GUST 15-18 KT POSSIBLE AT EWR THIS AFTERNOON.
TIMING OF SEA BREEZE WIND SHIFT AT JFK AND LGA MAY BE OFF BY
1-2 HOURS. LOW CHANCE FOR S SEA BREEZE AT EWR AND TEB LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. SW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WITH POSSIBLE
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT A S TO SW FLOW INCREASES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
RESULTING IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN WATERS
AND FOR THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS WHERE GUSTS GET CLOSE TO
25 KT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SUB ADVISORY
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH MAINLY MARGINAL 4
FT SEAS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN OCEAN WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS OCEAN SEAS EVENTUALLY SETTLE DOWN
CLOSER TO 2 FT.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SLOWLY BUILDING SEAS. FOR
SATURDAY, SW WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE
20-25 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD, LEADING TO A HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT FOR ALL LOCAL OCEAN BEACHES.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FRIDAY, JUNE 5
KEWR: 95 (2021)
KBDR: 87 (2025)
KNYC: 99 (1925)
KLGA: 94 (2010)
KJFK: 90 (2010)
KISP: 88 (2010)
SATURDAY, JUNE 6
KEWR: 97 (2021)
KBDR: 93 (2021)
KNYC: 98 (1925)
KLGA: 95 (2021)
KJFK: 90 (1968)
KISP: 90 (2021)
DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SATURDAY, JUNE 6
KEWR: 71 (2021)
KBDR: 67 (2025)
KNYC: 77 (1925)
KLGA: 76 (2021)
KJFK: 69 (2024)
KISP: 68 (2024)
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JE
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JE
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