503
FXUS61 KOKX 151732
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
132 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMOKE EXTENDED IN FORECAST THRU THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100F IN
MANY AREAS. THERE REMAINS A MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. AREAS OF WILDFIRE
SMOKE MAY ALSO LEAD TO HAZY SKIES AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES.
2) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
3) HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT LOCAL OCEAN BEACHES TODAY (SEE
MARINE DISCUSSION).
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A FEW DIFFERENT FEATURES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.
FIRST, THE HEAT FOR THE WEEK PEAKS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WARMEST SPOTS APPROACHING TRIPLE DIGITS. RIDGING IN PLACE
STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST GETS SHUNTED
LOCALLY BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. THIS WILL
PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE EVENING.
BEFORE THAT THOUGH, A MILD, MUGGY MORNING TO START WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE LOCAL TRI STATE.
CONTINUED TO SIDE WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER GUIDANCE OVER THE
NATIONAL BLEND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT HIGH BIAS SEEN WITH THESE
EVENTS. STILL, H850 TEMPS PROGGED 22-23C AND STRONG SURFACE
HEATING AHEAD OF ANY POTENTIAL HAZE/SMOKE SHOULD ALLOW MOST
AREAS TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE HOTTEST
URBAN SPOTS OF NE NJ AND NYC NEAR 100F. FACTOR IN THE MODEST
SURFACE MOISTURE AND HEAT INDICES SHOULD APPROACH OR EXCEED
100F IN MOST AREAS. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE
ENTIRE LOCAL FORECAST AREA UNTIL 9PM THIS EVENING. WHILE
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY REMAIN WARM, 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR MOST,
DEW PTS FALL OFF FURTHER BEHIND A FROPA THIS EVENING, AND
CONDITIONS WON'T FEEL QUITE AS OPPRESSIVE.
SECOND, THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE AND APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT POSE
A RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER TODAY.
SPC MAINTAINED A CONDITIONAL MARGINAL RISK (1/5) FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF S/SE CT. STRONG HEATING EARLY IN
THE DAY, DEW PTS IN THE 60S, AND RESPECTABLE SHEAR ALOFT COULD
ALLOW FOR STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE SHOULD INITIATION OCCUR. CAMS
ARE MIXED WITH COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL ACTIVITY, AND HIGHEST
CHANCES APPEAR TO BE ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. OPTED TO KEEP
POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE (<25%) FOR NOW, THOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORM
THAT DOES FORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE AND
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN LARGE HAIL. TIMING
SHOULD IT OCCUR LOOKS TO BE LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
AND THIRD, CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE DISPERSING SOUTH AND EAST
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO MAY PLAY A FACTOR IN THE EXTENT AND
INTENSITY OF THE FIRST TWO. HRRR BASED PLUME MODELING HIGHLIGHTS
LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WHEN CONCENTRATIONS MAY BE
HIGHEST LOCALLY TODAY, THOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
SENSIBLE IMPACT THE SMOKE MAY HAVE. HAZY SKIES APPEAR LIKELY,
AND IT'S POSSIBLE VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED AT TIMES LATE
TODAY. SURFACE HEATING MAY ALSO BE MUTED DEPENDING ON TIMING,
AND A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT COULD HELP STAVE OFF CONVECTION.
EXTENDED THE AREAS OF SMOKE IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH GUIDANCE INDICATING ADDITIONAL PLUMES SETTLING OVER THE
REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2
CONDITIONS LOOK TO TURN MORE UNSETTLED INTO THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HEIGHTS FALL FURTHER THIS WEEKEND AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS
SOUTH FROM A MEANDERING UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO OFFER A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE UPPER PATTERN,
BUT THE MOST ACTIVE PERIODS LOOK TO BE SATURDAY WITH A FRONTAL
WAVE MOVING THROUGH, AND THEN AGAIN NEXT TUESDAY. A RELATIVELY
MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS, BUT IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO NARROW DOWN DETAILS ON
ANY SEVERE THREAT.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE TERMINALS LATE TODAY.
WILDFIRE SMOKE FROM CANADA IS CURRENTLY LOWERING VSBY TO AROUND
3 TO 6 MILES FOR MOST TERMINALS. THIS SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, POTENTIALLY LOWERING VSBY AS LOW
AS IFR AT TIMES. IF IFR WERE TO OCCUR, THE MOST LIKELY TIMING
FOR THAT WOULD BE THIS EVENING AND THEN AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING.
MOST LIKELY WINDOW OF VFR WILL BE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. SLANTWISE VSBYS MAY BE REDUCED AS WELL.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS.
SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT. GUSTS 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR GUSTS 25-30 KT AT
COASTAL TERMINALS AROUND 20Z-00Z. WINDS WILL ALSO VEER TO THE
WNW-NW AFTER 22Z. GUSTS QUICKLY END AFTER 00Z WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS WEAKENING THROUGH TONIGHT. NW FLOW BACKS TOWARDS THE WEST
THURSDAY MORNING. A GUSTY W/NW FLOW THEN EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE 21Z-00Z.
VSBY MAY DROP TO AROUND IFR AT TIMES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD DUE
TO FU. MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR THIS WOULD BE THIS EVENING AND
THURSDAY EVENING. MOST LIKELY WINDOW OF VFR WILL BE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR VISIBILITIES DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
TIMING/EXTENT WILDFIRE SMOKE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY: IFR VSBY DUE TO SMOKE POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
W-WSW WINDS G20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF
FIRE ISLAND INLET UNTIL 2PM THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS HERE REMAIN
AROUND OR JUST ABOVE 5 FT, WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
GRADUALLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY, AND SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
RIP CURRENTS:
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT ALL
LOCAL OCEAN BEACHES. SW SWELLS OF 4-5 FT AT 6 SEC GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY.
THE RISK LOWERS TO MODERATE FOR THURSDAY AS SWELLS AND WINDS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RELATIVE TO WEDNESDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 15:
KEWR: 104/1995
KBDR: 97/1995
KNYC: 102/1995
KLGA: 103/1995
KJFK: 99/1983
KISP: 97/1995
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 15:
KEWR: 82/1995
KBDR: 76/2013
KNYC: 84/1995
KLGA: 83/1995
KJFK: 79/1995
KISP: 77/1995
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THURSDAY NIGHT FOR NJZ002-
004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
353.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...DR
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