357
FXUS61 KOKX 211717
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
117 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SEVERAL ROUNDS OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING. SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH LOCALLY SEVERE FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
THREAT THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY NYC/NJ METRO AND AREAS TO THE
WEST.
2) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MIDDAY UPDATE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND STRENGTHENING
LLJ. UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT GETS THROUGH
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT WOULD ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND
LOCALIZED SEVERE FLASH FLOODING WITH ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO
RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 3"/HR. FLOOD WATCH EXPANDED INTO
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT TO ADDRESS THE MORE WIDESPREAD
FLASH FLOOD THREAT, AND HIGH-RES MODEL SIGNAL.
THIS ACTIVITY WOULD ALSO REDUCE THE SEVERE THREAT FROM
APPROACHING ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
(5-9PM). IF THE WARM FRONT MOVES TO THE NORTH AND THE AREA CAN
SEE A BREAK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
THE POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR UPSTREAM DEVELOPING ORGANIZED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO AT LEAST
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION BETWEEN 5 AND 9P. DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT, BUT ENVIRONMENT IS
CONDUCIVE TO ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...A PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE CENTER TRACKS EAST THROUGH
SE CANADA TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A WEAK SECONDARY LOW ALONG A
WARM FRONT SHIFTS NEAR THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON - MORE LIKELY TOWARDS LATE DAY. A TRAILING COLD
FRONT THEN SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH DURING WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. RAINFALL EXPECTED TODAY INTO A PORTION OF TONIGHT WITH
RAIN CHANCES OVERALL LOWER DURING WEDNESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SUFFICIENT WIND AND SPEED SHEAR
WITH CAPE INCREASING AS THE DAY WEARS ON. A MITIGATING FACTOR FOR
SEVERE STORMS AT LEAST THIS MORNING INTO VERY EARLY AFTERNOON LOOKS
TO BE ONLY MODEST CAPE. IT WON'T BE UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WHEN
CAPE INCREASES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF
THE WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT, WHICH WILL ALSO ENHANCE HELICITY AND
PROMOTE SEVERE WEATHER. CAMS ARE NOT EXACTLY IN AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS - ONLY THAT SHOWER CHANCES BEGIN TO RAMP UP AFTER AROUND 8-9AM
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS. THERE IS AT LEAST BETTER AGREEMENT FOR A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL STORMS TOWARDS SUNDOWN AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. BY THIS TIME HOWEVER, INSTABILITY WILL BE DIMINISHING.
SO WHILE SEVERE WEATHER COULD OCCUR AS EARLY AS AROUND NOONTIME, IT
APPEARS THAT IT WOULD MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY
IMPACTS, BUT A LOW CHANCE OF LARGE HAIL OR A TORNADO STILL EXIST.
SPC'S SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR TODAY IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED FROM
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WITH MOST OF THE AREA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK AND A
PORTION OF NE NJ WITH AN ENHANCED RISK. CAPE AND SHEAR WON'T BE AS
HIGH FOR THE MOST PART ON WEDNESDAY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT STRONG TO
SEVERE GUSTS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SPC SHOWING A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
PWATS WILL BE 2.00 TO 2.25 INCHES AND RAINFALL RATES OF MOSTLY 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT MAY BE UP TO 2.50 INCHES PER
HOUR. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE FLOOD WATCH AS FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED MAINLY IN MORE URBANIZED AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNALS OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY, BUT GIVEN CURRENT FFG VALUES, DIDN'T THINK THAT THE
PROBABILITY WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE WATCH IN AREA. ORANGE AND
ROCKLAND COUNTIES WERE CONSIDERED FOR EXPANSION. WPC HAS THE ENTIRE
AREA WITHIN A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
FLOODING IMPACTS COULD BEGIN AS EARLY AS AROUND NOONTIME FOR SOME
AREAS WITH THE THREAT DROPPING OFF BY MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS.
IMPACTS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY. CURRENT RAINFALL FORECAST
FOR TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAS MOST OF THE AREA AT 1 TO 2 INCHES,
BUT LOCALLY 3+ INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
*HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER DAY TODAY*
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
CONDITIONS HAVE DECLINE DTO MVFR WITH SHRA/TSRA SCATTERED ACROSS
THE AREA. A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IMPACT THE TERMINALS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH
MAY PERSIST INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS, WHICH
COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 50KT OR GREATER. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
FOR TERMINALS EAST OF NYC. AFTER SHRA/TSRA CLEARS BY 3Z-6Z,
STILL ANTICIPATING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. WE'LL IMPROVE TO VFR BY
15Z TOMORROW.
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES 10-15KT G20-25KT. S/SE AFTER SUNRISE
WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT. WIND GUSTS DIMINISH
TONIGHT, BUT SPEEDS REMAIN AROUND 10KT OR SO WITH WINDS BECOMING
SW. TOMORROW, WINDS W/WSW 10-15KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA TODAY COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHRA/TSRA.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 15KT TODAY AND INCREASE
TONIGHT. GUSTS 25-30KT EXPECTED ON SOME OF THE AREA WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH THE OCEAN LIKELY STILL SEEING ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS INTO
WEDNESDAY. SEAS HERE WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH WEDS.
SCA CONTINUES FOR THE OCEAN AND SOME OF THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE NON-OCEAN ZONES MIGHT NOT BE SEEING SCA
CONDS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF WEDNESDAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT TO SHORTEN THE ADVISORY. SCA MIGHT NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN
TIME FOR THE OCEAN FOR LINGERING 5+FT SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS:
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH NO HEADLINE CHANGES. SOME AREAS COULD COME CLOSE TO HIGH
SURF CRITERIA, MAINLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED, HOWEVER BY THE TIME THE
SWELL HEIGHT AND PERIOD INCREASE, THE SWELL DIRECTION BECOMES
LESS ORTHOGONAL TO THE COASTLINE, LIMITING THE THREAT HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR CTZ005-006-009.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NYZ067>075-176-178.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ332-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JC
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