199
FXUS61 KOKX 230237
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
937 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE HAVE BEEN NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO THE SNOWFALL AND WIND FORECAST FOR THE EXPECTED MAJOR
BLIZZARD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MAJOR BLIZZARD WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL AND HIGH WINDS TO
THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF MONDAY.
2) WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WITH TONIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY
OF MAJOR COASTAL/SHORELINE IMPACTS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
WESTERN LONG ISLAND, TWIN FORKS OF LI, AND NORTH SHORE OF LONG
ISLAND.
3) A PASSING WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN ON
WEDNESDAY. A STRONGER LOW PASSING NORTH AND WEST WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIP THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A POTENTIAL HISTORIC BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA
INTO MONDAY. THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH CONDITIONS
DETERIORATING QUICKLY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN DIGGING DOWN TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. OUT AHEAD
OF IT, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY AND RIGHT ON TRACK OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS SEEN IN LATEST SURFACE OBS AND EVEN ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE. WHILE LITTLE WOBBLES IN TRACK/QPF TRENDS WERE SEEN
IN SOME 12Z GUIDANCE, THERE IS STILL EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS
LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING TO AN IMPRESSIVE ~970MB CENTRAL
PRESSURE BEFORE PASSING SOMEWHERE NEAR THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK
MONDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE LATEST 12Z GFS IS NOW LOWER WITH QPF AND MORE IN LINE WITH
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF, THESE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH
BANDING. CURRENT FORECAST QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS REMAINED SIMILAR
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH IS MORE IN LINE WITH HI RES/HREF
GUIDANCE. SNOW AMOUNT WAS DERIVED USING SIMILAR SNOW RATIOS TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NBM
APPEARS TO BE TOO HIGH. THIS WAS MANUALLY ADJUSTED DOWN TO
10:1 OR EVEN A BIT LOWER TODAY, THEN INCREASING TO 12-14:1 BY
LATE TONIGHT INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND
THE SYSTEM. USING THESE RATIOS WITH GENERALLY 1.25 TO 1.50
INCHES OF QPF ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 1.75 TO 2.00 INCHES ALONG
THE COAST RESULTED IN A SWATH OF ABOUT 20 TO 24 INCHES OF SNOW
FOR NYC AND LONG ISLAND AND 16 TO 20 INCHES ELSEWHERE. WHILE
THIS IS THE EXPECTED AMOUNT, A FEW ISOLATED READINGS OF 30
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST BANDING, MAINLY ALONG THE
COAST.
AS FOR WINDS, THE FORECAST REMAINED THE SAME FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. OUT EAST, FOR EASTERN LI AND SOUTHERN NEW LONDON,
CONFIDENCE INCREASED ENOUGH TO BUMP UP A FEW KNOTS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BRIEF PERIOD HERE WHERE A 65-70KT LLJ AT 950MB WILL
AID IN ISOLATED 70 MPH GUSTS AT THE SURFACE.
AS A GENERAL TIMELINE FOR HOW THIS WILL PLAY OUT: LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LITTLE IMPACT,
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE OF MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH
HEAVY SNOW AND 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY EXPECTED BY AROUND 7PM.
THROUGH THE NIGHT, WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS HEAVY SNOW
BANDS WORK THROUGH THE AREA. WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THIS TIME RESULTING IN TRAVELING BECOMING DANGEROUS, IF
NOT IMPOSSIBLE. GIVEN LATEST HI RES/HREF GUIDANCE AND MODEL
TIME HEIGHTS OF IMPRESSIVE LIFT IN THE DGZ, SNOWFALL RATES IN
THE HEAVIEST BANDS WILL LIKELY BE 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR THE
COAST AND 1-2 INCHES PER HOURS INLAND. BRIEF RATES OF 3 INCHES
IN ONE HOUR IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CONDITIONS START TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN GUSTY.
EVEN IF WE DO DRY OUT A BIT EARLIER THAN FORECAST, BLOWING SNOW
COULD BE AN ISSUE INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT IT CAN NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
STORM FORCE NNE WINDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AM WILL PRODUCE
A SURGE OF 2.5-3.5 FT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS FOR COASTAL/SHORELINE
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN BAYS OF LONG ISLAND
AND COMMUNITIES ALONG WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND. LOCALLY MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF NASSAU
AND SW SUFFOLK, PARTICULARLY THE NORTH SHORE OF BARRIER BEACHES.
IN ADDITION LOCALLY MAJOR FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH
FACING SHORELINE OF THE SOUTH FORK OF LI, ORIENT POINT, AND LOW-
LYING AREAS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LI DUE TO COMBO OF
MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS AND HIGH WAVE ACTION.
ALONG NYC/NJ HARBOR AND JAMAICA BAY, WIDESPREAD MINOR TO
LOCALLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR AREAS ALONG
NYC/NJ HARBOR AND JAMAICA BAY.
THIS WATER LEVEL FORECAST HAS BEEN LEANED TOWARDS A HIGH END
SCENARIO, PROVIDING A MARGIN OF SAFETY. IT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF WINDSHIFT FROM NORTHEAST TO NORTH STORM
FORCE WINDS WITH RESPECT TO THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. IF SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY WINDS OCCURS EARLIER THAN TIME OF HIGH TIDE, WATER
LEVELS WILL FALL TO THE LOW END OR EVEN BELOW THE FORECAST
RANGE.
ICE COVER IN THE BAYS AND HARBORS COULD EXACERBATE FLOODING AND
CAUSE DAMAGE TO NORTH TO NORTHEAST FACING SHORELINE STRUCTURES.
AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY WITH THE
MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE FOR THE SOUTHERN BAYS OF LONG
ISLAND FROM RESIDUAL TIDAL PILING, AND ALONG THE TWIN FORKS,
PARTICULARLY THE NORTH SHORE OF THE SOUTH FORK OF LI AND ORIENT
POINT.
ALONG THE OCEANFRONT, AREAS OF DUNE EROSION ARE LIKELY, WITH
LOCALIZED OVERWASHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 3
AS A CLIPPER LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY, AN ASSOCIATED
WARM FRONT SHOULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN ON WED.
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE, RANGING FROM LESS THAN AN
INCH ACROSS LONG ISLAND, TO AROUND AN INCH IN NYC AND ALONG THE CT
COASTLINE, TO 1-2 INCHES NORTH/WEST OF THERE.
A STRONGER LOW MOVING FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
THU COULD BRING MORE WINTRY PRECIP. NBM THERMAL PROFILES WERE MAINLY
SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW AND/OR RAIN, WHILE BLEND OF 12Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
THERMAL PROFILES SHOWS TEMPS WARMING ALOFT AND ARE MORE IN FAVOR OF
LIGHT SNOW CHANGING TO A WINTRY MIX INLAND, AND RAIN IN THE NYC
METRO AREA AND ALONG THE COAST. ANY SNOW/ICE AMTS SHOULD BE LIGHT,
NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW MOST PLACES AND A LIGHT GLAZE OF
ICE INLAND NW OF NYC. EITHER WAY ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE INTERIOR NORTH/WEST OF I-287 IN NJ/NY AND ALONG THE
I-84 CORRIDOR IN CT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S,
THEN TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR GRADUAL SNOW MELT EACH DAY, AND WITH MOSTLY SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING, SUBSEQUENT RE-FREEZE OF
SNOW MELT.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
**HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM INTO MONDAY**
CONDITIONS CONTINUE DETERIORATING THIS EVENING WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW OVER THE AREA TERMINALS. THE SNOW INTENSITY CONTINUES
TO RAMP UP BETWEEN 03-06Z WITH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EXPECTED
WITH 1/4SM VISIBILITIES AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE SNOW
INTENSITY SHOULD START WEAKENING ON MONDAY WITH SNOW ENDING FROM
WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIFR/VLIFR OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. IMPROVEMENTS TO MVFR LIKELY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW LIKELY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NE WINDS QUICKLY RAMP UP TO 25-35 KT WITH GUSTS 35-45 KT
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR
FOR NYC METRO TERMINALS, LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT TERMINALS.
GUSTS 50-55 KT POSSIBLE AT KJFK, KLGA, KISP, KBDR AND KGON LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
LLWS ALSO EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH WIND
SPEEDS AT 2KFT 50-60 KT.
TOTAL FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS
KJFK/KLGA/KEWR: 18-22 INCHES
KISP: 20-24 INCHES
KBDR/KGON: 15-20 INCHES
KSWF/KHPN: 12-18 INCHES
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF HEAVIEST SNOW AND LOWEST CONDITIONS MAY BE OFF BY 1-3
HOURS. AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
GUSTS 50 KT POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY PM: MVFR WITH BLOWING SNOW. VFR POSSIBLE AT NIGHT SNOW
MAY CONTINUE WITH LOCAL IFR EAST OF NYC METROS THROUGH THE
EVENING. NW WINDS G25-35 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT, THEN RAIN/SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER. RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE NEAR COAST WITH
SNOW POSSIBLE INLAND.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A MAJOR BLIZZARD WILL IMPACT THE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY.
A STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXPECT THE NY
HARBOR WHERE A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT.
WINDS INCREASE TONIGHT AND PEAK LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORECAST GUSTS, A BRIEF
PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
OCEAN ZONE (MORICHES INLET TO MONTAUK POINT). STRONG WINDS WILL
LEAD TO 14 TO 20 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN AND ABOUT 6 TO 10 INCHES
ON THE LI SOUND.
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY START IMPROVING LATE MONDAY AND ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES WILL NEED TO BE ISSUED AS CONDITIONS STEP DOWN.
SCA CONDITIONS LINGER INTO TUE MORNING ON THE ERN SOUND AND
PECONIC/GARDINERS BAYS, WITH NW FLOW STILL GUSTING UP TO 25 KT, AND
ON THE OCEAN FOR GUSTS UP TO 30 KT FOR SEAS 6-8 FT. SOME 5-6 FT SEAS
SHOULD LINGER ON THE OCEAN INTO EARLY TUE EVENING.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA COND THEN LIKELY ON THE OCEAN FROM WED
INTO FRI AS A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH, MAINLY FOR
HAZARDOUS SEAS. SW FLOW 20-25 KT EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WITH WARM
FRONTAL APPROACHES DAYTIME WED AND AGAIN THU NIGHT.
ALONG THE OCEANFRONT, AREAS OF DUNE EROSION ARE LIKELY, WITH
LOCALIZED OVERWASHES POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
WITH THE POTENTIAL MAJOR SNOWSTORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOWFALL RECORDS TO BE BROKEN. HERE ARE
THE RECORDS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR THE CLIMATE SITES:
SUN 2/22 MON 2/23
CENTRAL PARK, NY: 6.0/2008 4.8/1972
LAGUARDIA, NY: 6.4/2008 4.1/1972
JOHN F KENNEDY, NY: 6.9/2008 6.1/1987
NEWARK, NJ: 6.8/2008 4.1/1987
ISLIP, NY: 5.5/2008 6.7/1987
BRIDGEPORT, CT: 7.0/2008 2.6/1987
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ009-010.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR CTZ011-012.
NY...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-
176>179.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ071-073-078-
176-177.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ072-074-075-
178.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ079-081.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NYZ079>081-179.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR NYZ080-179.
NJ...BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ006-104-106-
108.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ331-332-340-345-350-
353-355.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ335.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ338.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN/JT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN/JT
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