756
FXUS61 KOKX 150018
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
818 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING.
2) A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PASS
THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. LIFT FROM THE TWO FEATURES WILL
INTERACT WITH FAIRLY SHALLOW MOISTURE CONCENTRATED IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO THE
EVENING, BUT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO BE LIMITED WITH THE
LACK OF MOISTURE ABOVE 700MB AND SOME CAPPING BENEATH -10C. EVEN
WITHOUT THUNDER, SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH A DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AND A
WIND PROFILE FAVORING DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HIGHEST
CHANCES OF SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF NYC.
KEY MESSAGE 2
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE
TRACKING NEAR/OVER US LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
POTENTIAL FLOODING AND STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUST IMPACTS WILL DEPEND
ON WHERE THE STORM CENTER TRACKS, AND AT THIS TIME, GUIDANCE LEANS
TOWARD A TRACK OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF US. THE PRIMARY THREAT
THEREFORE APPEARS TO BE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LIFT AND WARM
FRONT PLUS A DEVELOPING 30-40KT LLJ LIFTING HIGH MOISTURE (2-2.5"
PWAT). THE PERIOD WHEN FLOODING WOULD BE MOST LIKELY IS MID-
AFTERNOON SUNDAY UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. EAST OF NYC, FLOODING THREAT
IS OVERALL LOWER DUE TO CURRENT FFG VALUES, BUT HEAVY RAIN WITH A
THREAT OF AT LEAST MINOR NUISANCE/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WOULD BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT STILL EXISTS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW CENTER IN OUR VICINITY. A LOW TRACK OVER OR TO THE NORTH OF
THE REGION WOULD PROMOTE HIGH SHEAR/HELICITY, ALBEIT WITH WEAK
INSTABILITY. STILL FAIRLY LOW PREDICTABILITY ON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND SEVERITY AT THIS TIME. DID NOT DEVIATE FROM NBM
REGARDING THUNDER CHANCES, BUT IT'S BEGINNING TO LOOK LIKE THE
CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW AND MORE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IF IT WERE TO OCCUR.
ADDITIONAL ISO-SCT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY WITH A TRAILING SLOW COLD FRONT, BUT SEVERE WX DOES NOT LOOK
LIKELY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTION
IS EAST OF NYC TERMINALS THIS EVENING IN ANY SHOWERS WHERE BRIEF
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING NE AT LESS THAN 10KT BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT OR
TROUGH. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE S/SE AT 5-10KT AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WIND DIRECTION WILL LIKELY VARY CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA.
TIMING OF WINDS SHIFTS ON SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS MAY VARY BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR IN THE MORNING. INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR
LOWER THEREAFTER WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS, POTENTIALLY HEAVY AT TIMES AT NIGHT WITH POTENTIAL IFR.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 15-20
KT AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER EARLY WITH SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, IMPROVING
CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH EVENTUAL RETURN TO MAINLY
VFR.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR AT NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN A WEAK
PRESSURE REGIME.
SCA CONDITIONS THEN APPEAR TO BECOME LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS, AND POTENTIALLY ALL WATERS WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
SOME GUSTS COULD APPROACH GALE FORCE DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK
OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING AND PASSING THROUGH, BUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH
OF A CHANCE FOR A MENTION IN THE HWO.
RIP CURRENTS: A COUPLE OF 1 FT S/SE ONSHORE SWELLS, WITH A WEAK
SEABREEZE WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY A LOW RIP RISK FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
SIMILAR SWELLS CONDITIONS WITH 1-2 FT LONGSHORE WIND WAVES WILL ONCE
AGAIN RESULT IN A LOW RIP RISK ON SATURDAY. A RECENT NEW MOON WILL
CONTINUE THE WIDE TIDAL RANGE, AND COULD INCREASE THE RIP RISK TO
MODERATE PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIMES OF LOW TIDE TODAY AND
SATURDAY.
RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY BUILDS TO HIGH LATE ON SUNDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WAVES BUILDING TO
4-5 FT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...JC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page