595
FXUS61 KOKX 221828
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
228 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF RAIN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
2) A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS LIKELY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA FROM NW TO SE LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE. ANY SFC BASED
INSTABILITY IS MODELED TO REMAIN W OF THE CWA, SO IF THERE ARE
ANY ISOLD TSTMS THEY WILL BE ELEVATED. PROBS FOR TSTMS HAVE
SHIFTED S, WITH THE FCST NOW KEEPING THEM OVER THE OCEAN. A
SECOND ROUND OF RAIN IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT INTO MON MRNG WITH
THE UPR JET. THIS POST FRONTAL PCPN MAY HAVE A FEW WET FLAKES
MIXED IN AT THE END ACROSS THE FAR NWRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AN INCH OR LESS, ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY THE NWRN 2/3 OF THE AREA
WHERE THE AFTN/EVE ROUND WILL LIKELY BE MORE SUBSTANTIAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AFTER A PERIOD OF HI PRES AND A SLIGHT WARMING TREND THRU WED, A
WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS POSSIBLE WED NGT INTO THU. THIS FRONT
IS MOISTURE STARVED SO NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCPN IS EXPECTED ATTM.
A SECOND, STRONGER COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY TIMED FOR LATE THU INTO
FRI. MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SYS COULD ALLOW FOR A ROUND OF
RAIN WITH THE FROPA. TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT LIKELY TO COOL INTO THE
40S FOR HIGHS, WITH WIDESPREAD SUBFREEZING TEMPS FOR LOWS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THERE IS A WARM FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION FROM SW TO NE.
THIS MOVES OUT OF THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THEN MOVES IN TOWARDS
EARLY EVENING. THIS FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY LATE EVENING.
RAIN SHOWERS INITIALLY NEAR KSWF MOVE FARTHER SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AND THEN A STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPS TONIGHT WHICH CONTINUES INTO EARLY MONDAY. FOR KSWF,
SOME SNOW IS FORECAST TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN EARLY MONDAY.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS THEREAFTER MONDAY, MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR REST OF TAF PERIOD.
INITIAL MVFR/IFR STRATUS SCATTERS OUT FOR NYC TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON BUT ANY VFR WILL BE BRIEF. MVFR CHANCES WILL REDEVELOP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SHOWERS FOR NYC TERMINALS. THEN MVFR
CONDITIONS LOWER TO IFR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE RAIN. THE
IFR TONIGHT IS EXPECTED FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR
AS WELL. IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR IS EXPECTED LATE
MONDAY MORNING INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR NYC TERMINALS AND KSWF.
OUTSIDE OF NYC TERMINALS AND KSWF, A MAINLY MVFR TO IFR TAF
PERIOD EXPECTED WITH SOME LOCALIZED LIFR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH THE FRONT PASSAGES AND UNCERTAIN
WITH EXACT TIMING OF WIND SHIFTS. OVERALL A SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES LIGHTER
IN SPEED AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION INTO THIS EVENING. THEN,
NORTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NEAR 10 KT WITH
GUSTS MONDAY NEAR 20 KT.
..NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY
AMENDMENTS LIKELY TO REFINE TIMING OF RAIN AND CATEGORICAL
CHANGES.
THERE VERY WELL COULD BE SOME FLUCTUATION BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
TONIGHT.
TIMING OF MORE NORTHERLY WINDS COULD BE 1-3 HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. NW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT, SUBSIDING AT
NIGHT.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR WITH S/SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
THURSDAY: POSSIBLE MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN, BECOMING MORE
LIKELY AT NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
FRIDAY: CHANCE OF RAIN EARLY WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. NW
WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
BUILDING SEAS TNGT RESULT IN SCA COND DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN. THE
LATEST MODELING KEEPS THESE SEAS AOA 5 FT THRU MON NGT, SO THE ADVY
WAS EXTENDED. ON THE PROTECTED WATERS, WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS
THRU MON NGT. HI PRES BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK SHOULD
KEEP WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS THRU THE DAY ON
THU. WINDS AND SEAS RAMP UP THU NGT THRU FRI WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM.
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO FALL BLW SCA LVLS ON SAT ATTM.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JMC
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JMC
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