967
FXUS61 KOKX 210221
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1021 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR AVIATION.
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AS THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. SOME SHOWERS
WILL LINGER THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
2) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, BUT
IMPACTS APPEAR LIMITED AT THIS TIME.
3) DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH THE HANDLING OF A
WEAK SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE TWO SOLUTIONS WITH ONE
BEING PROGRESSIVE/WEAKER, WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AREAWIDE. THE OTHER SOLUTION IS FOR THE
WAVE TO LINGER NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN LONG
ISLAND. THIS SOLUTION WOULD SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG, AND
POTENTIAL LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE HIGHER
THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY IN JUST A DAYS TIME, HAVE CONTINUED WITH
THE NBM MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH RESULTS IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER
AGREEMENT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER AMPLIFYING MID-UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES SATURDAY AND WILL DEEPEN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING TOWARDS THE
AREA SUPPORTS POTENTIAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON SATURDAY. GUIDANCE
HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE TIMING AND THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES MAY END UP CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHICH IS NEAR THE
POTENTIAL LOCATION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT FOLLOWS AT SOME POINT ON SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME, IMPACTS
APPEAR LIMITED, BUT WPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/4) FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON SATURDAY. CIPS AND CSU MLP
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY, BUT IT IS STILL TOO FAR OUT FOR ANY SPECIFICS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
UPPER TROUGHING WILL LINGER OVER THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEEKEND SYSTEM SHOULD BE PUSHING OFFSHORE. THE CURRENT
EXPECTATION IS FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH DRY WEATHER AND
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS.
MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT, WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE
NORTH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-25KT, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS.
THE GUSTS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 05-06Z AND REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH
AROUND 10KT.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR THE TIMING OF IFR AND MVFR, WHICH COULD BE A
FEW HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. A FEW SHOWERS AND MVFR POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.
HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MVFR LATE AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY: SHOWERS LIKELY. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR TO IFR
AT TIMES.
SUNDAY: A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCE OF MVFR
OR LOWER AT TIMES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 25 KT THIS EVENING AS A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS, MAINLY ON THE OCEAN. OTHERWISE,
GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN 20 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD PREVAIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS LOW THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE RIP CURRENT RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE ON FRIDAY AND WILL REMAIN
MODERATE ON SATURDAY. WHILE WINDS WILL BE NE-E, A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY BRING A SWELL COMPONENT WITH 3 FT SEAS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355.
UPDATE...DBR
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