944
FXUS61 KOKX 100028
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
828 PM EDT TUE SEP 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY PASSES OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THURSDAY, WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THEREAFTER. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, PUSHING OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT THEN LIKELY SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED
BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN OFFSHORE FRONTAL ZONE CAN BE SEEN ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND
PASS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTH THIS
EVENING, LEADING TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH INTO EARLY TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE OFFSHORE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE GETTING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE AREA.
THIS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO GET CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
AREA TO LEAD TO LIGHT RAINFALL LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST. SOME 12Z CAMS BRING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT
COINCIDES WITH A PERIOD OF HIGHER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THIS COULD
LEAD TO SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER CONVECTIVE-DRIVEN SHOWERS
PRIMARILY ON LONG ISLAND AND IN SE CT. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDER HAVE REMOVED FROM THE WEATHER
GIRDS. BEST CHANCES FOR POPS APPEAR TO BE FROM NYC-LONG ISLAND
TO SE CT. HOWEVER, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
EVEN INTO INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
OTHER THAN RAIN, THIS FEATURE WILL BRING SOMEWHAT GUSTY NE/E WINDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH, WITH
THE HIGHEST WINDS AND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST.
GIVEN STEADY NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER,
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY THESE FACTORS. THE
GUIDANCE DIFFERS ON HOW WARM IT SHOULD GET WITH A 10 DEGREE
SPREAD AMONG THE 10TH TO 90TH NBM PERCENTILES. HAVE GONE WITH
THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE FOR TOMORROW, LEADING TO HIGHS IN
THE MID-TO-UPPER 60S.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AN OFFSHORE LOW IMPACTING US ON WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
FARTHER AWAY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS MEANS ANY ONGOING RAINFALL
WILL TAPER BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER ON THURSDAY AND
THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GO BACK TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WITH
NBM GUIDANCE FOLLOWED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AND WEAKENS SUNDAY WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH MOST LIKELY DURING SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS FOR
SUNDAY INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE STRENGTHEN OF AN
OMEGA BLOCK THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE US AND SOUTHERN CANADA,
WITH THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN STRONGER THAN THE GFS IN THE FORM OF
A HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A BROADER CUT OFF LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS
COULD BRING MORE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS TO WHAT IS CURRENTLY A
MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE AREA (SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
MONDAY). HIGH TEMPERATURES IN 70S EACH DAY, WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S, SOME UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ON CLEARER CALMER
NIGHT IN THE OUTLYING AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW THEN PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE TERMINALS WEDNESDAY.
EXPECT VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER, TIMING OF DEVELOPING
MVFR CEILINGS EAST OF THE NYC TERMINALS MAY BE A LITTLE EARLIER
THAN FORECAST, AND POSSIBLY LATER AT THE METRO NYC TERMINALS,
AND IS DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING TO THE
SOUTH. MVFR THEN PREVAILS INTO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE
NYC METRO TERMINALS AND INTO EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY EAST OF THE
NYC TERMINALS.
BEST CHANCES OF RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL BE EAST OF NYC. CAN
NOT RULE OUT PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF NYC.
EASTERLY WINDS BACK TO NE THIS EVENING AND TO THE NE/N
WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE
10-15KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN
FORECAST.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH DAYBREAK THURSDAY
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE AREA AND A PASSING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE. A 15 TO 20 KNOT NE FLOW WILL GUST UP TO AROUND 25 KT AND
HELP BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS TO 5 TO 7 FEET. WHILE WINDS MAY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING, THEN 5 TO 7 FT WAVES WILL STILL
LINGER.
FOLLOWING DAYBREAK THURSDAY, SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND.
HYDROLOGY
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
CONTINUED EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
BUILD AN EASTERLY WIND WAVE WAVE COMPONENT TO 5 TO 6 FT AT 7S.
THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ON
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN WIND AND WAVE DIRECTION WILL BE PARALLEL TO
THE SHORELINE, SURF HEIGHT IS EXPECTED TO TOP OUT AROUND 4-5 FT.
DESPITE THE WIND BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY, THE
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL WILL BE HIGH GIVEN PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
CONDITIONS. WITH A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY, A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED.
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT REMAINS POSTED FOR THE SW CT AND S
WESTCHESTER COASTAL ZONES, NY HARBOR IN HUDSON COUNTY IN NJ,
AND THE NASSAU AND QUEENS SOUTH SHORE BAYS FOR THIS EVENING'S
HIGH TIDE CYCLE. FOR WEDNESDAY'S DAYTIME CYCLE, THE SAME AREAS
WILL SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER INUNDATION, BUT STILL NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY, SO STATEMENTS WERE ISSUED FOR THE SAME
AREAS AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
SYNOPSIS...JP/BR
NEAR TERM...BR/MET
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JP/BR
HYDROLOGY...JP/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JP
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