949
FXUS61 KOKX 060800
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT 11PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 9AM WEDNESDAY
FOR ORANGE NY, PUTNAM NY, AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS EXTENDED FARTHER INTO
THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON THUS FAR COMING UP FOR TONIGHT.
FROST, ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE REGION.
2) TEMPERATURES REBOUND WITH MODERATION OF AIRMASS WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST THURSDAY.
3) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
TONIGHT, THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES IN. WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON AND WINDS
BECOMING CALM TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS WILL HELP
PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING TO AN ALREADY COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS.
TOOK THE BLEND OF MET AND MAV MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT WITH SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS AS THE NBM ITSELF APPEARED
TO BE WAY TOO WARM. THE AREAL SIZE OF FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING IS RELATIVELY SMALL AND ISOLATED. WITH THE
TEMPERATURES NEARLY FALLING TO THE DEWPOINT ALONG WITH THE CALM
WINDS, FROST IS EXPECTED TO FORM, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE REGION AND TO A SMALLER EXTENT ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY NY. MORE THAN HALF OF THE ZONES OF ORANGE
NY, PUTNAM NY, AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT HAVE AREAS OF FROST
FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FOR THESE
ZONES, THERE IS A FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11PM THIS
EVENING UNTIL 9AM WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE AND OUTSIDE OF THE PINE
BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND, THE RANGE OF LOWS IS MORE IN THE 36 TO
45 DEGREE RANGE WITH NYC METRO MORE IN THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE
RANGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
WITH THE MOVEMENT OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MORE OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE WINDS AND CIRCULATION
PATTERN CHANGES TO BRING MORE SW WINDS. THIS WILL ADVECT IN A
WARMER AIRMASS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES EXHIBIT QUITE THE REBOUND
AS A RESULT. WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL, MOSTLY MID
60S TO NEAR 70 AND LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOSTLY BACK INTO THE 50S
AS THE SW WINDS STAY UP IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHS THAT DAY MORE INTO THE
70S WITH MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE REGION (NE
NJ, NYC, LOWER HUDSON VALLEY) AWAY FROM THE RELATIVELY COOLER
MARINE AIR.
IN GENERAL THEREAFTER, FORECAST TEMPERATURES DO NOT DEVIATE
MUCH FROM SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. LOWS AT NIGHT STAY IN THE 40S AND 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 3
EXTENDED DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK AND INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THURSDAY NIGHT BUT DOES NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE WITH IT
AND THIS IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH DRY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK IS WHEN THERE IS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AND THIS IS
FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
AND PROBABILITY FOR RAIN IS BETWEEN 20 AND 40 PERCENT.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL.
VFR. NW WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTS 16-20KT LATE MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH TONIGHT AND BCMG SW TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 16-20KT ARE EXPECTED FROM APPROX 15-18Z, BUT
THEY MAY STILL BE OCCASIONAL AT ANY POINT BEFORE 15Z AS WELL AS
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AFTER 18Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: VFR. SW WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTN.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA EXTENDED FARTHER INTO THIS MORNING WHERE IT IS ALREADY IN
EFFECT. WINDS STILL EXPECTED TO BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND TODAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS MORE INTO THE REGION.
SCAS FOR LI SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN/PORT JEFF AND WEST OF CT
RIVER AS WELL AS PECONIC/GARDINERS BAYS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM.
SCA FOR LI SOUND EAST OF CT RIVER REMAINS UNTIL 11AM. SCA FOR
OCEAN WEST OF MORICHES INLET NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM. SCA FOR
OCEAN EAST OF MORICHES INLET NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12PM.
THEREAFTER, FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY BELOW
SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SCA LEVEL CONDITIONS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FOR PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR CTZ005>008.
NY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NYZ067-068.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-
340-353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ332.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ350.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM
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