313
FXUS61 KOKX 050637
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
237 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
OCEAN OUT 20 NM SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR
LINGERING HIGHER SEAS THROUGH EARLY TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS WEEK AHEAD WITH THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATER TODAY WITHOUT ANY MEASURABLE
RAINFALL EXPECTED. A FEW CAMS SHOW SOME REFLECTIVITY TRAVERSING
PARTS OF THE AREA MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST REGION. WITH THE AMBIENT DRY LOW LEVELS, THE RAINDROPS
WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. SO, KEPT A DRY
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FOR TONIGHT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE AIRMASS
MODERATES WEDNESDAY.
COOLEST STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY STAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S WITH
SOME MID 60S WITHIN NE NJ AND NYC METRO. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP A GUSTY NW FLOW IN PLACE TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A
DECREASE IN THIS PRESSURE GRADIENT TUESDAY, ALLOWING FOR LESS
WIND GUSTS ON TUESDAY AS A RESULT. BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE TOO
BREEZY FOR ANY FROST TONIGHT AND TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE AS LOW AS A RESULT OF THESE RELATIVELY HIGHER WINDS.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA WITH WEAKENING
WINDS. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT FORECAST TO RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 30S
FOR RURAL AND INTERIOR SECTIONS TO NEAR 50 WITHIN NYC METRO.
TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES MID TO
LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A FRONTAL SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AFTER THIS
SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT.
MAINLY VFR BUT TEMPO OR EVEN PREVAILING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE UNTIL
AROUND THE START OF THE MORNING PUSH.
NW WINDS HOURS BCMG MORE WESTERLY DURING THE MORNING PUSH. WINDS
THEN VEER BACK TO NW BY AROUND 14-15Z WITH GUSTS DEVELOPING AROUND
THIS TIME, EVENTUALLY INCREASING TO 25-30KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
DIMINISH TONIGHT, AND GUSTS END BY MIDNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS LINGERING FOR AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER 09Z.
OCCASIONAL PEAK GUSTS 30-34KT POSSIBLE FROM APPROX 18-21Z. END TIME
OF GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS. WINDS PREVAILING
LEFT/SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC FROM THE MORNING PUSH THROUGH AROUND 18Z,
THEN PREVAILING RIGHT/NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC THEREAFTER. WITH THAT
SAID, WINDS COULD EASILY VARY ON EITHER SIDE OF 310 MAGNETIC AFTER
AROUND 15Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAYTIME HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
LATE TONIGHT: VFR. NW WINDS AT 10KT OR LESS.
TUESDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: VFR. SW-W WIND G20-25KT POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTN.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
THE OCEAN OUT 20 NM SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH EARLY TODAY
FOR LINGERING SEAS NEAR 5 FT. BY LATE MORNING, NW WINDS WILL
START GUSTING MORE FREQUENTLY TO NEAR 25 KT. THE OCEAN OUT 20 NM
SCA CONTINUES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, EXTENDING
LATER INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE EASTERN WATERS.
MOST OF THE NON-OCEAN NEARSHORE ZONES HAVE THEIR SCA REMAINING
IN EFFECT FROM 11AM THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY, AGAIN
EXTENDING LATER INTO TUESDAY FOR MORE EASTERN WATERS.
THE LAST OF THE CURRENT SCAS WILL BE ENDING 11AM TUESDAY. AFTER
THAT, MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE ONLY SCA POTENTIAL IS FOR SOME OCEAN
SCA CONDITIONS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ331-335-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR ANZ332.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ353-355.
DISCUSSION...JM
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JM
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