044
FXUS61 KOKX 080637
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
237 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WARM TODAY, OTHERWISE DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH SATURDAY.
2) AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING RAIN TO THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL
SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE SYSTEM
IS MOISTURE STARVED, BUT SOME CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SPRINKLE
OR BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE. BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CT, WHERE THERE WILL BE BIT MORE MOISTURE FOR THE
SYSTEM TO WORK WITH. HAVE SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST, NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
THEREAFTER, A FEW WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE THROUGH. WITH
EACH THERE WILL BE A SHOT OF COLD ADVECTION AND A RETURN TO
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, BEFORE
THEN, TODAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS GETTING INTO THE
70S, ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENING,
A COUPLE OF COOL NIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
SPECIFICALLY FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH THE HIGH CENTERED OVERHEAD,
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IDEAL. HAVE CONTINUED TO
BLEND IN MOS GUIDANCE WITH THE NBM TO CAPTURE LOWER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND LI PINE BARRENS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 40S THERE, WITH NO CONCERN AT THIS TIME FOR A
FROST/FREEZE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HURRICANE ISAIAS IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST. REFER TO THE LATEST
OFFICIAL TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
REMNANT MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM THEN LOOKS TO INTERACT WITH
MID-LATITUDE ENERGY, BRINGING A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO SPARE THE
REGION OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL. IN ADDITION, THERE IS NOT
MUCH EVIDENCE THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MUCH INSTABILITY WORK WITH,
ALBEIT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. LATEST NBM
DETERMINISTIC QPF BRINGS 0.75 TO 1 INCH OVER ABOUT AN 18 HOUR
PERIOD. THIS HAS TRENDED DOWN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE LATEST
90TH PERCENTILE NBM SHOWS 1.5 TO 2 INCHES OVER THIS 18 HOUR
PERIOD, WHICH HAS ALSO TRENDED LOWER.
S/SE WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY BRIEFLY REACH 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE
COAST. THERE IS A FULL MOON AND COASTAL LOCATIONS WILL NEED ABOUT 1
TO 2 FT TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS, WHICH IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL COME INTO BETTER FOCUS OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS WE GET INTO THE WINDOW FOR SURGE GUIDANCE.
RIGHT NOW, IT IS LOOKING LIKE A LOW END EVENT AT BEST.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH ON THURSDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
S/SW FLOW AROUND 10 KT. THERE ARE STILL SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS
EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER FOR THE MOST PART THE GUSTS HAVE
DISSIPATED. FLOW VEERS W, THEN WNW INTO LATE MORNING BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT RETURNING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTS SUBSIDE IN THE EARLY EVENING AND SPEEDS LOWER
UNDER 10 KT BY 00Z FRI.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR DAYTIME. CHANCE OF RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR COND AT
NIGHT.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN AFFECT THROUGH 2 PM TODAY FOR THE
WATERS FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT AND OUT 20 NM. 25 KT
GUSTS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR OTHER WATERS TO SEE OCCASIONAL 25
KT GUSTS, AND IF THIS BECOMES MORE FREQUENT THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED. 25 KT GUSTS ARE THEN POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THEREAFTER, SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350-
353.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page