698
FXUS61 KOKX 260253
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
953 PM EST SAT JAN 25 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY IS FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. MOST NOTABLY, LOWERING
THE LOW TEMP FORECAST OVER PARTS OF ORANGE COUNTY WHERE THE
CURRENT TEMP IS LOWER THAN THE FORECAST LOW HAD BEEN. CLOUDS
SHOULD INCREASE LATER TONIGHT, SO TEMPS SHOULD BECOME MORE
STEADY NORTH OF THE CITY OVERNIGHT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH MOVING NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ALSO APPROACHES. VERY WEAK WARM ADVECTION, A
SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL COMBINE TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS AROUND NORMAL
LEVELS. THE DETERMINISTIC NBM AND MOS GUIDANCE WERE BLENDED FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
WITH NEAR ZONAL UPPER FLOW THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION RATHER QUICKLY SUNDAY. AND WITH LITTLE
MOISTURE AND LIFT, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. INCREASED
CLOUDINESS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE AIRMASS CHANGE WILL BE
SUBTLE WITH HIGHS SUNDAY, AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN. THERE MAY BE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SUNDAY NIGHT
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK VORT MAX AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA.
WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS PERSISTS MONDAY AND YET ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT BUILDS IN
BRIEFLY SUNDAY NIGHT SHIFTS SOUTH MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR, OR JUST UNDER NORMAL, BUT WITH A
GUSTY WEST FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL FEEL NEARLY 10 DEGREES COLDER.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
TWO MAIN SYSTEMS IN THE EXTENDED. THE FIRST IS A CDFNT ON TUE.
THE MODELING IS GENERALLY DRY, INCLUDING THE NBM POP OUTPUT, BUT
WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND SOME LLVL INSTABILITY, THINKING
IS THAT SOME SCT ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE NAM HAS SOME CAPE
MODELED OVER THE AREA. THE BEST DPVA HOWEVER IS N OF THE CWA,
AND MOISTURE IS LIMITED, SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. AS A RESULT,
MANUALLY WENT WITH SCT 30 POPS FOR TUE.
THE NEXT SYS IS A CLIPPER ON WED. BEST PCPN CHANCES ALONG AND N
OF THE SFC LOW TRACK. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING SEEMS TO BE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS, THE EXACT POSITION OF THE
LOW IS STILL UNCERTAIN, WITH THE 12Z ECMWF FURTHER N THAN THE
GFS. BOTH MODELS HOWEVER BRING THE CWA INTO THE WARM SECTOR
ATTM, WITH THE TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG OR N OF THE MASS PIKE. CANNOT
RULE OUT A TRACK ENDING UP FURTHER S, BUT FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE
TO FOLLOW THE CONSENSUS MODELING AND KEEP THE LOW N OF THE
AREA, RESULTING IN MILDER TEMPS AND LOWER PCPN CHANCES AND
AMOUNTS.
THE NBM WAS BRINGING IN ADDITIONAL POPS FOR FRI AND FRI NGT
WITH THE NEXT SYS IN THE PIPELINE, BUT BASED ON THE 12Z MODELING
THIS SEEMS TOO SOON SO KEPT THE FCST DRY UNTIL SAT NGT, WHERE
CHANCES FOR A WINTRY MIX WERE INTRODUCED.
OTHERWISE, THE FCST TEMPS FOLLOW THE NBM WITH MINOR TWEAKS. A BIT
WINDY ON TUE WITH MILD WSWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CDFNT BECOMING
NWLY.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY.
VFR. WSW WINDS MOSTLY 5-10KT THROUGH EARLY MORNING, THEN W WINDS
INCREASING TO AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KT LATE MORNING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH IN THE EVENING.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR.
MONDAY-TUESDAY: VFR. W-WSW GUSTS 20-25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW SHOWERS. W GUSTS 20-25KT
THURSDAY: VFR. NW GUSTS 30 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT FORCE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO APPROACH SCA LEVELS ACROSS ALL BUT
THE NEW YORK HARBOR WATERS THIS EVENING. THE INCREASED PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND PASSES TO THE NORTH, WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ALSO, OCEAN SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO SCA
LEVELS TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS DURING
SUNDAY AND A STRONG AND GUSTY WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE, HAVE EXPANDED THE SCA TO ENCOMPASS ALL
THE FORECAST WATERS DURING SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS AND GUSTS TO DIMINISH, AND THE NON OCEAN
WATERS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER, OCEAN SEAS AND GUSTS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE, SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE OCEAN SCA UNTIL 06Z MONDAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WEAKENING DURING MONDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS, AND OCEAN SEAS,
MAY INCREASE UP TO SCA LEVELS, AND ANOTHER ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED.
GALES ARE POSSIBLE ON TUE. A SCA MAY BE NEEDED ON WED, WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF GALES ON THU. COND CLOSE TO SCA LVLS ON FRI.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT-SAT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...JC/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
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