136
FXUS61 KOKX 271817
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
117 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO LIKELY FOR
SUNDAY, WITH A COATING TO AN INCH POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PATCHY FOG AND BLACK ICE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
2) SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
3) MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
WEAK RETURN FLOW, AS WELL AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE MELTING
SNOWPACK, WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME FOG AND BLACK ICE BOTH TNGT
AND SAT NGT. LIMITING FACTORS FOR FOG ARE A LACK OF LLVL
MOISTURE TNGT, AS OFTEN THE FOG ONLY HAPPENS ON THE 2ND NGT OF
ONSHORE FLOW, AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT SAT NGT. FOR THESE REASONS
THE FCST KEEPS COVERAGE AT PATCHY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AN ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE SNOW SHWRS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE POLAR JET DROPS INTO THE REGION. POPS
HAVE BEEN MANUALLY INCREASED TO LIKELY OVER THE MUCH LOWER NBM.
POCKETS OF MDT-HVY SNOW POSSIBLE WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER, THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER IS MINUSCULE OR ZERO, THERE
IS NO SBCAPE MODELED BY THE NAM, AND AN UPR LVL TROF AS OPPOSED
TO A CLOSED LOW PASSING THRU IS MODELED. BECAUSE OF THIS, IT
APPEARS NOT TO BE A SNOW SQUALL SCENARIO ATTM, ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD STILL BE POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW AND ACCUMS OF A COATING
TO AN INCH.
KEY MESSAGE 3
UPPER AIR PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CHANGE THIS PERIOD AS A TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD, WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EAST.
THIS WILL SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MILD WEATHER WITH A STORM TRACK
GENERALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SUPPORTS
MAINLY RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN ON
TUESDAY.
AFTER A SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO START THE WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE ON
MONDAY GIVES WAY TO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ITS
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE, PRECIPITATION MAY
INITIALLY START OFF AS SNOW TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING OVER TO
RAIN. TRANSITION LIKELY OCCURS BEFORE A STEADIER PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS. EXPECT LITTLE OR NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AT THE COAST
WITH PERHAPS AND INCH OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH CONDITIONS
BRIEFLY DRYING OUT WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING
RAIN INTO THE AREA.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE LOWER TEENS TO LOWER
20S. AFTER THAT, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 40S WITH LOWS GENERALLY ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST REMAINS IN CONTROL
THROUGH SATURDAY.
VFR.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAINLY IN FOG LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT THE OUTLYING TERMINALS.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE DID NOT INCLUDE IN THE
FORECAST.
WINDS REMAIN BELOW 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT S FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON BECOMES LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. A LIGHT
SSW FLOW DEVELOPS SATURDAY MORNING.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS NOT EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: VFR.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.
N/NW WINDS G15-20 KT.
MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE MORNING, BECOMING
PLAIN RAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING SOUTH TO
NORTH.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN, MAINLY IN
THE MORNING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BLW SCA LVLS THRU SAT.
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS LATE SUN BEHIND A COLD FRONT
MAY BRING THE OCEAN TO SCA CRITERIA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN
WATERS NEXT WEEK AS MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE NW
WITH WARM FRONTAL PASSAGES. THE FIRST CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE WARM SECTOR AS SW WINDS STRENGTHEN, THEN AGAIN
ON THURSDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JMC/DW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/DW
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