188
FXUS61 KOKX 271120
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
720 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
CT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT ISSUED FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE
CYCLE FOR FAIRFIELD COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT PLAYER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
2) WATER LEVELS MAY TOUCH OR COME CLOSE TO MINOR COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARKS ACROSS LOWER NY HARBOR, SOUTHERN NASSAU, AND
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A BENIGN STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY IN CONTROL. ON THE HEELS OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
BUILDS SOUTHEAST TODAY AND INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT. THE HIGH
THEN WORKS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND GIVES WAY TO ANOTHER APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, WHICH PASSES THROUGH DRY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
OUTSIDE OF SOME OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE, EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY
DAYS AND CLEAR NIGHTS. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO
BE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST CT
(MIDDLESEX AND NEW LONDON COUNTIES), WHERE THE GROWING SEASON
CONTINUES. THE GROWING SEASON HAS ALREADY ENDED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHERE FROST IS LIKELY. THUS, A FROST ADVISORY WILL ONLY
BE ISSUED FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST CT. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME
EXPANSION LATER TODAY IF THE FROST COVERAGE INCREASES FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES.
HIGHS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWERS 60S,
GRADUALLY WARMING WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD 70S ARE
FORECAST BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40 OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO, WHERE
IT WILL BE IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50. SUBSEQUENT MORNINGS WILL
WARM AS WELL, WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER AND
MID 50S. FRIDAY'S HIGHS AND LOWS WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO
POSSIBLY 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. VALUES ARE SHORT OF RECORDS.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, COOLER WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR THE
WEEKEND, BUT REMAINING DRY.
KEY MESSAGE 2
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL FAIRFIELD COUNTY
FOR THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
LOCALIZED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF LOWER NY HARBOR, SOUTHERN NASSAU, AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD
DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON HIGH TIDES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE BEST CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE ALONG
THE SW CT COAST THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME, ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES (KING
TIDE) AND AN EASTERLY SWELL ARE PRODUCING ABOVE NORMAL WATER
LEVELS. IN MANY CASES, LESS THAN FOOT IS NEEDED TO REACH MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARK.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 7-10 KTS THROUGH MOST THE TAF PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OUT OF THE N-NE FOR MUCH
OF TODAY. WINDS MAY BECOME MORE EASTERLY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY AT THE FAR EASTERN TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE LATE THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
..NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY
NO AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
CTZ011-012.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...DW
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