559
FXUS61 KOKX 141122
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
722 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY
WITH PASSAGE OF FRONTAL SYSTEM.
2) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE, LOWERING
HUMIDITY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW OVER THE REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
SLIDING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ENE THROUGH CENTRAL QUEBEC, WITH ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND CROSSING
THROUGH MONDAY.
PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE FOR A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL SUN AFT/NIGHT WITH APPROACHING SHORTWAVE LIFT AND
DEVELOPING 30-40KT LLJ LIFTING ATLANTIC AND SUB-TROPICAL PAC
MOISTURE (2-2.5" PWAT) AHEAD/ALONG APPROACHING WARM FRONT W/
LIKELY TRIPLE PT WAVE. STILL QUITE A BIT SPREAD ON EXACT TRACK
OF THIS TRIPLE POINT LOW TO THE NORTH, OVER OR TO THE SOUTH OF
THE REGION. A TRACK ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION WOULD
LIKELY BRING THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT, WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE.
OVERALL MEDIUM RANGE NWP AND AI ENSEMBLES ARE NOT BULLISH IN
TERMS OF QPF FOR AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT, BUT WITH THE
ABOVE MENTIONED FACTORS THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE IN THE
MESOSCALE DETAILS. ISO-SCT FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL EXISTS WITH
COMBO OF MODEST FORCING/ FOCUS OF A VERY MOIST, SUB- TROPICAL,
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS, CONDITIONAL ON WARM FRONT/TRIPLE PT LOW
TRAVERSING THE AREA.
A LOW TRACK OVER OR TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION WOULD PRESENT A LOW
AND ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THREAT IN HIGH SHEAR/HELICITY WEAK
SURFACE INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. LOW PREDICTABILITY ON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND SEVERITY AT THIS TIME.
ADDITIONAL ISO-SCT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFT/EVE WITH TRAILING SLOW COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MEAN NE US TROUGHING CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A COUPLE
OF VIGOROUS SHORTWAVES AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS PASSING
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ISO-SCT LOW TOP SHOWER POTENTIAL WITH SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS SE CT. INSTABILITY IS
MAINLY BELOW THE MIXED PHASE REGION LIMITING THREAT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO SLIGHT. ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL TO BRING DOWN SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS (40-50 MPH)
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER UNI-DIRECTIONAL WIND SHEAR, DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSFER FAVORING WIND PROFILE, MID-LEVEL DRY-AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND STEEP LOW- LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO DRY HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT SHOWER POTENTIAL FROM SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PROGRESSIVELY LOWER T AND TDS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY IN WAKE OF
THESE FRONTAL PASSAGES.TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR SEASONABLE TODAY
(MID 80S NE NJ/NYC METRO AND LOWER 80S ELSEWHERE), THEN SLIGHTLY
BELOW SEASONABLE ON SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT PASSAGE THIS EVENING.
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CT TERMINALS. HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE TAF
DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME.
NNW-NW FLOW INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WILL BACK TO THE WNW AND
POTENTIALLY W TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON. SOME COASTAL TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY KJFK, KISP,
KBDR, AND KGON. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS MORNING, THEN
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS LIGHTEN
THIS EVENING, THEN SHIFT TO THE N-NE TONIGHT.
..NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY
TIMING OF SEA BREEZE PASSAGE AT KJFK MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
A SEA BREEZE MAY APPROACH KEWR THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING
S-SE WINDS, BUT SPEEDS WILL BE UNDER 10 KT.
VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION LIKELY AROUND 00Z BEFORE SETTLING
TO THE N-NE 02Z-04Z
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SUNDAY: VFR INTO THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LATE IN THE
DAY AND AT NIGHT. S WINDS G15-25KT, HIGHEST AT THE COAST.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY AND MAINLY EAST OF NYC METRO TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT IN A WEAK
PRESSURE REGIME.
SCA POTENTIAL INCREASES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OCEAN
WATERS, AND POTENTIALLY ALL WATERS WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
RIP CURRENTS: A COUPLE OF 1 FT S/SE ONSHORE SWELLS, WITH WEAK
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE RIP RISK LOW
TODAY. SIMILAR SWELLS CONDITIONS WITH 1-2 FT LONGSHORE WIND
WAVES WILL ONCE AGAIN RESULT IN A LOW RIP RISK ON SATURDAY.
RECENT NEW MOON WILL CONTINUE THE WIDE TIDAL RANGE, AND COULD
INCREASE RIP RISK TO MODERATE PARTICULARLY AROUND THE TIMES OF
LOW TIDE EACH AFTERNOON.
RIP CURRENT RISK LIKELY BUILDING TO HIGH ON SUNDAY WITH
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WAVES
BUILDING TO 4-5 FT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page