033
FXUS61 KOKX 260251
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1051 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EXTENDED INTO
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH A COLD FRONT, MOVING
SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING.
2) UNSEASONABLY COLD AND DRY TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
3) TEMPERATURE MODERATION LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH MILDER
TEMPERATURES OVERALL INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN UPPER TOUGH ACROSS EASTERN CANADA THURSDAY AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO THE EARLY FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT TRACKS THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. CAMS ARE SHOWING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND CHANGED FROM STRATIFORM RAIN TO
SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE REGION DURING LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND WITH SOME INCREASED LIFT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, MOISTURE IS LIMITED
WITH THIS SYSTEM AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, WITH STORM TOTAL
RAINFALL AROUND 1/2 INCH. ALSO THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS
SURFACE CAPE IS LITTLE TO NONE, AND ELEVATED CAPE, WELL ABOVE A
WEAK SURFACE BASED CAP, IS 100-200 J/KG, AND MAINLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
KEY MESSAGE 2
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE SATURDAY MORNING AS A STRONG
CP AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS
EARLY SATURDAY MAY GET AS COLD AS THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S,
WITH DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES ONLY GETTING TO AROUND 40 TO 45 WHICH
IS A GOOD 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE TIME OF YEAR. MOST PLACES
WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE CP AIR MASS MODERATES AND BEGINS TO LOOSEN ITS GRIP ON THE
REGION DURING SUNDAY. A RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SW WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE TEMPERATURES AS IT GETS CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED BY NWP AND AI CONSENSUS TO SLOW
AND POSSIBLY MOVE THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE POSITIONING OF THIS
BOUNDARY WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE TEMPERATURES LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
STRAY AWAY FROM NBM DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. THEREFOR, UNCERTAINTY IN
DAY TIME TEMPERATURES INCREASES FOR THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
PERIOD.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15KT DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 10KT. AN
OCCASIONAL GUST 20-25KT POSSIBLE BEFORE 6Z. EXPECTING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LLWS WITH 2KFT SW WINDS AT AROUND 45KT FROM APPROX
06-12Z. SW WINDS PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH MORE FREQUENT GUSTS
EXPECTED 20-25KT. APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHRA TO THE
AREA AFTER 00Z FRIDAY WITH MVFR CIGS, THOUGH TIMING REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW, HANDLED WITH A PROB30 FROM 0-6Z FRIDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
OUTLOOK FOR 03Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING WITH RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SW
GUSTS AROUND 20KT. LLWS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FRIDAY: MVFR/IFR WITH RAIN DIMINISHING IN THE MORNING, BECOMING VFR
IN THE AFTERNOON. N WINDS GUST AROUND 20KT.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: VFR. SW GUSTS AROUND 20KT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR THE OCEAN WATERS HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED IN TIME, INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND FRIDAY NIGHT. SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THURSDAY MORNING
WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST, AND CONDITIONS BEGIN TO SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SCA LEVELS ON THE EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND, AND BAYS, AND THESE
AREAS WERE NOT ADDED TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. BY SATURDAY
MORNING CONDITIONS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARD THE AREA.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN VERY EARLY ON
SATURDAY SHOULD WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT WINDS AND DECLINING SEAS
TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS
OVER WEEKEND WITH SUB-SCA CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THE WINDS
BECOME SW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY
MONDAY SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THURSDAY TO 2 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...JE/MET
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...JE/MET
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page