104
FXUS61 KOKX 031128
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
728 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES THROUGH INDEPENDENCE
DAY.
2) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHEST CHANCES ARE OVER THE WEEKEND. ANY
STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY. THIS LEVEL OF HEAT CAN BE
DEADLY FOR THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
IMPACTS TO TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE (RAIL, BRIDGE,
ROAD/TARMAC), ELECTRICAL (HIGH DEMAND) AND WATER SYSTEMS (OPEN
HYDRANTS REDUCING WATER PRESSURE) HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH PREVIOUS
HEAT EVENTS OF THIS SEVERITY AND DURATION. ON AVERAGE, HEAT
KILLS MORE PEOPLE THAN ANY OTHER WEATHER RELATED HAZARD.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE HEAT FORECAST, WITH THE WARNING IN
PLACE THROUGH INDEPENDENCE DAY. WITH THE HIGH HUMIDITY IN PLACE,
ALL AREAS ARE FORECAST TO HIT HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 105 TO 115
TODAY. THOSE NUMBERS DROP A LITTLE ON SAT INTO ROUGHLY THE
100-106 RANGE, WHICH TECHNICALLY MEETS ONLY HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR PLACES INLAND, BUT KEPT THE WARNING GOING SINCE
THIS IS PART OF THE LARGER ONGOING HEAT EVENT, AND ALSO TO
ADDRESS THE CUMULATIVE EFFECTS OF MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAT.
THE TREND CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER WITH ENDING THE HEAT ON
SUNDAY. CONTINUED WITH THE BLENDED GUIDANCE APPROACH, WITH HIGH
TEMPS 85-90, AND AND HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. HIGHS ON MON LOOK TO BE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SPC STILL HAS MUCH OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
TSTMS TODAY, WITH ERN CT/LONG ISLAND IN A MARGINAL RISK, WITH
TIMING FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
FOR SAT THE SLIGHT RISK INCLUDES NE NJ AND NYC, WITH A MARGINAL
RISK OVER THE REST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FOR SE CT, AND AN AFTERNOON
TIMING.
PRIMARY THREAT BOTH DAYS IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS. WET BULB ZERO
TEMPS AOA 13 KFT ARE TOO HIGH FOR ANY LARGE HAIL THREAT TO
MATERIALIZE DESPITE AMPLE CAPE FCST TO BE ALOFT IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE OF -10C TO -30C. WHILE STORMS SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE,
CAN'T RULE OUT THE HEAVIEST ONES FROM DROPPING A FAST INCH OF
RAIN, ESPECIALLY ON SAT PER 06Z HRRR AND ALSO 12Z HREF 30-40%
PROBABILITY OF OVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS OVER THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND WESTERN CT.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS COME IN BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A WAVE COMING IN FROM THE WEST, AND COULD LAST
INTO MON NIGHT OR TUE MORNING. AREAL QPF OF 1-2 INCHES LOOKS
POSSIBLE, WITH THE HIGHER AMTS FROM NYC NORTH/WEST.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
MAINLY VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND A THERMAL TROUGH SETS UP AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. MORNING HAZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KBDR AND KGON.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER AND/OR
THUNDERSTORM. TIMING RIGHT NOW APPEARS TO BE FROM ABOUT 21Z-00Z
AND HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 IN THE TAFS.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WNW THIS MORNING WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
BELOW 10KT. WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10KT THIS MORNING
WITH G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BACK SOME,
ESPECIALLY AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. KJFK IS EXPECTED TO GO
SOUTHERLY FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
WINDS AT KJFK COULD STAY MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED TO FINE TUNE THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: W WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTMS WITH STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS. MVFR OR LOWER
COND POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY: SHOWERS/TSTMS LIKELY. MVFR OR LOWER
COND AT TIMES.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE OF TSTM
DEVELOPMENT THRU THE PERIOD WHICH COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY LATE DAY/EVENING FRI AND SAT.
ALSO, A FEW GUSTS MAY GET CLOSE TO 25 KT IN E FLOW FROM MON
AFTERNOON INTO TUE, ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN, WITH OCEAN SEAS UP
TO 4 FT.
RIP CURRENTS...
LIGHTER WINDS WITH A MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT AND LOWER SWELLS
WILL DROP THE RISK TO MODERATE TODAY AND LOW FOR SATURDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JULY 3:
KEWR: 105/1966
KBDR: 99/1966
KNYC: 103/1966
KLGA: 107/1966
KJFK: 104/1966
KISP: 104/1966
JULY 4:
KEWR: 105/1949
KBDR: 98/1949
KNYC: 102/1949
KLGA: 100/1949
KJFK: 101/2010
KISP: 97/2010
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JULY 3:
KEWR: 82/2002
KBDR: 75/2002
KNYC: 82/2002
KLGA: 81/1966
KJFK: 78/2002
KISP: 76/2018
JULY 4:
KEWR: 81/2002
KBDR: 80/2002
KNYC: 81/2002
KLGA: 82/1999
KJFK: 80/2002
KISP: 76/2002
JULY 5:
KEWR: 81/1999
KBDR: 74/2018
KNYC: 82/1999
KLGA: 86/1999
KJFK: 80/1999
KISP: 78/1999
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...GOODMAN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page