984
FXUS61 KOKX 041827
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
227 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THIS EVENING, AND FURTHER WEST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
2) ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY BECOME MORE SEASONABLE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK.
3) A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
THE COMBINATION OF DRYING FINE FUELS, SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS BETWEEN
25 AND 30 MPH, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN MAINLY 30 AND 35
PERCENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD FOR
SOUTHERN CT, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, NEW YORK CITY, AND MAINLY
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THE RISK OF FIRE SPREAD ON TUESDAY AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE CONFINED
TO MAINLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA DUE TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO SFC WINDS KEEPING EASTERN AREAS A BIT MORE MOIST.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT RH VALUES, GUSTY WINDS WITH DRY FUELS WILL BE
ABLE TO PROMOTE FIRE SPREAD IF IGNITION OCCURS.
THIS FORECAST CONSIDERS METEOROLOGICAL, FUEL, AND LAND CONDITIONS
AND HAS BEEN DEVELOPED IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE AND LAND
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WITH AN APPROACHING LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK IS PROMOTING AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WHICH ALLOWS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 80S FOR WESTERN AREAS AND 70S FOR THE EAST.
SOME IMMEDIATE SOUTHERN COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY NOT RISE OUT OF
THE UPPER 60S.
THE LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH
BRINGS TEMPERATURES DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT STARTS TO APPROACH FROM
THE WEST. A STEADY RAINFALL IS PROGGED BY NWP AND THE AI GLOBAL
GUIDANCE. WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY RIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LOOK FOR THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE
TO STABILIZE, AND THUS SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THERE
MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT A RUMBLE OR
TWO OF THUNDER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, BUT OVERALL EXPECT
ESSENTIALLY A BENEFICIAL MODERATE RAINFALL REGION WIDE. QPF EVENT
TOTALS HAVE DECREASED SOME AS NWP GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSING
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY A BIT FASTER TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THUS, THE BULK OF THE RAIN TAKES PLACE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF RAIN / SHOWERS INTO
THE DAY THURSDAY, BUT POPS HAVE LOWERED, ESPECIALLY FOR FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE AREA. A SECOND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH, BUT NWP AND AI CONSENSUS IS FURTHER TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS TRAILING DISTURBANCE. THUS ANY RAIN ON
THURSDAY SHOULD BE LIGHTER IN NATURE WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER
INTO THURSDAY EVENING, WITH SKIES NOW EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OFFSHORE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERAL S TO SW FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SHORT
PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SW WINDS OF NEAR 40 KT AT 2KFT AGL.
SW WINDS INCREASE BACK TUESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AGAIN BETWEEN
20-30 KT. OCCASIONAL PEAK GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON.
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NORTH AND WEST OF
NYC TERMINALS LATE IN THE DAY INTO EARLY EVE. HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC TERMINALS LATE AT NIGHT.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF THE GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY: RAIN WITH MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES. SW WIND GUSTS MAINLY
AROUND 20 KT. SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT DECREASING TO 15-20 KT AT NIGHT.
THURSDAY: SHOWERS, EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF LATE AT NIGHT. MVFR OR
LOWER AT TIMES. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVE NEAR NYC TERMINALS.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. W-NW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20 KT, DIMINISHING AT
NIGHT.
SATURDAY: MVFR IN SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT WAVES ON THE OCEAN WATERS PERSIST WITH COMBO OF 2
FT E AND SE SWELLS AND BUILDING S WIND WAVES. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT, AND PICK UP A MORE
INTO TUESDAY WITH OCEAN SEAS INCREASING FURTHER. A PERIOD OF
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE VERY LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE OCEAN AND THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN BAYS OF LI. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT AND
MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, AND MAY
VERY WELL CARRY INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SUB ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS.
HOWEVER, SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED ON THE OCEAN AND MAY EXTEND
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY NIGHT. SUB ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY BE SHORT LIVED, AS SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN
ON FRIDAY ON A NW TO W WIND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
335-338-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ332-
345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...20
MARINE...MW
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