159
FXUS61 KOKX 120730
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
330 AM EDT FRI JUN 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ONCE
AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
2) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH
A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
3) POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
4) MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK DURING EVENING HIGH TIDES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
TODAY'S POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
LARGELY BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY'S STORMS AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSTABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN
STRONG SURFACE HEATING. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WILL BE A MORE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THAT WILL PROVIDE A MORE CONSOLIDATED
FORCING MECHANISM FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER, THE FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER THAN NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS MAY MEAN THAT STORMS MAY BE
FAIRLY ISOLATED IN NATURE INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MAY NOT BE
MORE SCATTERED OR WIDESPREAD UNTIL EVENING. THAT BEING SAID, ANY
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
PRIMARY THREAT OF BRINGING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL RETURN TODAY AND ALLOW FOR SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES AS YESTERDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE
TOWARD THE 20 C MARK, TRANSLATING TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S. MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
TOGETHER, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BE IN THE
MID 90S TO LOWER 100S. THE HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS VALID FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA THROUGH 8 PM TODAY.
TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REMAIN MUTED IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S FOR COASTAL SE CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND, AND
THESE AREAS WILL STAY OUT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND HOT WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. AT THIS TIME, AFTERNOON
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S
DO NOT RAISE A CONCERN FOR HEAT HAZARDS.
WHILE IT IS TOO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS, THERE IS AT LEAST
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG THE
GLOBAL MODELS WITH QPF OUTPUT ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
ALONG WITH A TONGUE OF INSTABILITY STRETCHING INTO NORTHEAST NJ. THE
SPC HAS OUTLINED NYC AND NORTH AND WEST IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 4
WITH A NEW MOON PHASE COMING UP THIS WEEKEND, ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER. WITH INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW THIS
WEEKEND, THE FORECAST SURGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND TOTAL WATER
LEVELS COULD REACH JUST BEYOND MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS DURING
TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.
THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE LOOKS TO BE THE HIGHER OF THE TOTAL
WATER LEVEL FORECASTS ACCORDING TO SOME SURGE FORECAST MODELS. THIS
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING COULD LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS WELL FOR THOSE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
WITH BOTH LONG ISLAND SOUND AND SOUTH SHORE BAY LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS MONTAUK SHOWING POSSIBLE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES COULD VERY WELL BE NEEDED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY, EVENTUALLY CROSSING
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST
TOWARDS EARLY SATURDAY.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE EAST OF NYC TERMINALS, WHERE FOG IS POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH IFR TO MVFR POTENTIAL AS WELL AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. A BRIEF
REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY TO MVFR OR IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS INITIALLY LIGHT NEAR 5 KTS OR LESS
WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION FOR SOME LOCATIONS. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME
MORE WESTERLY TODAY WITH MORE SW WINDS FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE
SHORE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE NEAR 10-12 KT TODAY WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO
NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. WINDS SHIFT TO NW THIS
EVENING BEHIND COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS AGAIN WILL BE NEAR 10 KTS. NW
FLOW NEAR 10 KT STAYS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
..NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WHICH COULD BE 1 TO 2 HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
GUSTS COULD DEVELOP 1 TO 3 HOURS BEFORE STATED IN TAF FOR TODAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
SATURDAY: VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR INITIALLY. THEN, SHOWERS BECOMING MORE PROBABLE
AFTERNOON INTO NIGHT WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. S-SW WIND GUSTS NEAR 20-25 KT
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. PEAK GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: SHOWERS ENDING EARLY WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE,
MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE W-SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
TUESDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
LIGHT FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KTS IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AND SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. WINDS
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE REAL MARGINAL AND MAINLY FOR THE OCEAN
WATERS, WITH 25 KT GUSTS AND 4-5 FT SEAS.
RIP CURRENTS...
FOR TODAY, A SW FLOW AROUND 10KT AND A 3FT 6S SWELL FROM THE
SOUTH WILL COMBINE TO BRING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
SOUTHERN NASSAU AND SOUTHERN SUFFOLK. THE RISK FOR NYC BEACHES
IS LOW, WITH A BIT OF A WEAKER SWELL. IT IS MARGINAL OVERALL FOR
ALL BEACHES, BUT RCMOS HELPED LEAN TOWARDS INCREASING THE RISK.
THE RISK LOWERS TO LOW ON SATURDAY WITH A WEST WIND UNDER 10 KT AND
A LINGERING 2 FT SOUTHERLY SWELL.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 12:
KEWR: 97/2017
KBDR: 93/2017
KNYC: 93/2017
KLGA: 96/2017
KJFK: 92/2017
KISP: 91/2017
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
JUNE 12:
KEWR: 74/1973
KBDR: 69/1973
KNYC: 76/2017
KLGA: 76/2017
KJFK: 73/1970
KISP: 70/1973
JUNE 13:
KEWR: 74/2005
KBDR: 71/2017
KNYC: 77/2017
KLGA: 80/2017
KJFK: 72/2017
KISP: 70/1969
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ005>010.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078-
080-176>179.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ078>081-177-179.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...MW
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