729
FXUS61 KOKX 191529
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1029 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRINGS A WINTRY MIX TO INLAND
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THEN BECOMING PLAIN
RAIN, WITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
2) POTENTIAL FOR AN OCEAN STORM TO IMPACT THE AREA FROM LATE DAY
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH INTO LATE TODAY WILL PUSH
A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY, IN A NEAR ZONAL FLOW, WILL
THEN APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
DEVELOP A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT. MEANWHILE, A
NORTHERN BRANCH LOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETREAT TONIGHT AND WILL AFFECT
THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA AS THE
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
THE NAM AND SEVERAL CAM'S HAD DELAYED THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION UNTIL TOWARD FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTIES HAVE GENERALLY USED THE NBM PROBABILITIES TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WARM AIR MOVING IN ALOFT, THERMAL PROFILES WERE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR, PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND
INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF SLEET
AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW MIXED AT TIMES. FARTHER TO THE EAST ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT, PROFILES WERE INDICATING MORE
SNOW AND RAIN, AND PERHAPS SOME SLEET. AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO
THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH RETREATS, PLAIN RAIN
IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF LATE AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH LOW WELL
TO THE WEST ELONGATES AND TRACKS NORTH. WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED, UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH, A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. HELD OFF ON ISSUANCE DUE TO
TIMING UNCERTAINTIES AND WITH THE TIME FRAME IN QUESTION BEING
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THERE REMAINS A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
AND TRACK OF AN OCEAN STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE
HAS BEEN A CLEAR TREND TO THE NW THE LAST 24-36H IN THE LOW
TRACK WITH ECAIFS, AIGFS, THE GEFS, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
GEPS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND GDPS (CANADIAN) THE LAST 2-3 RUNS
HAVE A LOW TRACK THAT HAS BEEN CLOSE ENOUGH TO SEE SOME SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE REGION, BUT NOT A MAJOR EVENT. BOTTOM LINE, THERE
HAS BEEN A LOT OF JUMPING AROUND OF THE GUIDANCE AND THIS IS
LIKELY DUE TO COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN MULTIPLE STREAMS/UPPER
LOWS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY. THIS COULD STILL BE THE CASE FOR ANOTHER 24
HOURS OR SO BEFORE WE SEE BETTER CONSISTENCY AMONGST ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, THE FORECAST HAS CONTINUED TO FOLLOW THE
NBM. NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE (WARNING LEVEL) ARE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 PERCENT, HIGHEST ACROSS LONG ISLAND.
EVEN PROBABILITIES FOR 3 INCHES OF SNOW (ADVISORY LEVEL) GET NO
HIGHER THAN 20 PERCENT. THAT BEING SAID, THE GUIDANCE BEING
ALL OVER THE PLACE HAS KEPT THESE NUMBERS LOW. THE SYSTEM THOUGH
IS VERY MUCH WORTH WATCHING BECAUSE OF ITS POTENTIAL WITH
INCREDIBLE DEEPENING OF THE LOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
PRESSURE FALLS AROUND 24 MB IN 12 HOURS NOTED IN THE 00Z GFS AND
GDPS. THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS
A CONCERN SHOULD A MORE WESTERN TRACK BECOME THE CONSENSUS.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY, THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKENS AND LIFTS OUT TO THE NE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
MAINLY VFR TODAY. PRECIPITATION THEN MOVES IN TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY TERMINALS.
NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT THIS MORNING VEERS TO THE E/ESE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL THE BACK TONIGHT TO THE ENE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES FRIDAY MORNING MAY VARY BY 1
TO 2 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 15Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND POSSIBLE IN RAIN AT THE CITY/COASTAL
TERMINALS AND SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX AT KSWF. E WINDS G15-20 KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR TO START. MVFR OR LOWER IN A CHANCE OF SNOW LATE IN
THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY. E/NE WINDS G15-20 KT. WINDS COULD BE
STRONGER DEPENDING ON COASTAL LOW TRACK.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW. N WINDS G20-25 KT. WINDS COULD BE
STRONGER DEPENDING ON COASTAL LOW TRACK.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS LONG PERIOD SOUTHEAST SWELLS KEEP SEAS AROUND 5 FT.
THE ADVISORY COULD BE EXTENDED AS THESE SWELLS COULD CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING. THE NON OCEAN WATERS REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OCEAN SEAS BUILD BACK UP AGAIN TO 5 FT FRIDAY INTO LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF GUSTS NEAR 25 KT FOR A FEW HOURS LATE FRIDAY.
A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. WIND AND WAVE FORECAST WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON
HOW CLOSE IT PASSES AND HOW MUCH IT CAN STRENGTHEN. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS SCA CONDITIONS ON ALL NON OCEAN WATERS AND GALE
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
DISCUSSION...BG/MET/DW
AVIATION...20
MARINE...BG/MET/JT
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page