284
FXUS61 KOKX 291126
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
726 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND SEASONABLE THIS WEEKEND.
2) TURNING UNSETTLED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS, BUT CONFIDENCE OF IMPACTS
REMAINS LOW THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MUCH IMPROVED SENSIBLE WX AND MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AT SEASONABLE LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY. ONCE THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES EAST OF THE
REGION, HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER IN THE DAY
SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE RIDGE WORKS EAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THERE IS GOOD GLOBAL NWP AND AI
AGREEMENT WITH THE MID LEVEL MASS FIELDS. OUR AREA WILL REMAIN
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO PROGRESS EAST AND LIKELY JUST TO THE
NORTH OR ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CWA INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, WHICH HAS OFTEN BEEN THE CASE THIS WARM SEASON THUS
FAR. THE AREA WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE
WARM/STATIONARY BOUNDARY, BUT OUR AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BOUNDARY TO ALLOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF SYNOPTIC SCALE/MID
LEVEL FORCING. THIS SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PERIODS OF CONVECTIVELY INDUCED RAINFALL.
THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS TO ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT THE NAM AND GFS
DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE JET STREAK. WHILE THERE REMAINS
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT, IT APPEARS THE REGION WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVELY INDUCED HEAVY RAIN AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. WPC CURRENTLY HAS THE AREA UNDER
A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MONDAY AND TUESDAY, AND
SPC PLACED THE AREA IN A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER ON
WEDNESDAY WHICH IS RARE TO SEE THAT FAR OUT IN TIME. SO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BEAR WATCHING AS PWATS ARE PROGGED TO
CLIMB INTO THE 1.5-2 INCH NEIGHBORHOOD BY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH ON THURSDAY, CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU SATURDAY, THEN EXITS OFFSHORE BY
EARLY SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHERLY FLOW 10KT OR LESS INTO THIS MORNING. MORE SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES WITH
WIND SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT. SPEEDS DIMINISH AFTER 00Z SUN WITH
WINDS VEERING TO THE SW. MANY OUTLYING TAF SITES GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE SATURDAY NIGHT. TOMORROW, WINDS INCREASE TO 10 KT BY
18Z.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: VFR.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFTERNOON
INTO NIGHT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS LIKELY. A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH OCEAN SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 FT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND THUS
LIGHT WINDS AND DIMINISHED SEAS.
OCCASIONAL/BRIEF GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE NY BIGHT COASTAL JET.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS BECOME MORE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SEAS LIKELY BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIP CURRENTS:
WEAK FLOW AND SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL LEAD TO A LOW RIP CURRENT RISK
TODAY. INCREASING S-SW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO 3 FT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TO OCEAN
BEACHES.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JP
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