684
FXUS61 KOKX 121943
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. GALE WARNING ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY AFT/EVE FOR ENTRANCE
OF NY HARBOR, GREAT SOUTH BAY, AND NEARSHORE WESTERN OCEAN
WATERS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS INCREASED FOR THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZE CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF APPROACHING
FRONTAL SYSTEM. UNSETTLED WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
WITH SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH. POTENTIAL FOR
DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
2) DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS FOR THIS
WEEKEND WITH GOOD BOATING WEATHER, AND WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE
LOWER 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
GOOD AGREEMENT IN A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND UPPER LEVEL JET, DIGGING
A TROUGH THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE REGION THU INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE,
RESULTANT LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE GREAT LAKES AND SE ONTARIO
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH IT TRAILING COLD FRONT APPROACHING
LATE WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. WEAK SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE REGION THURSDAY UNDER THE
DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW, SLOW SLIDING EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST OF
THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HAVE S/SW WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 40 MPH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WED AFT/EVE. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 45 MPH
POSSIBLE FOR NYC/NJ METRO AND WESTERN LI WITH STRONG COASTAL JET
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH.
THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS FROM W TO
E WED EVE/NIGHT AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THAT STALLS OVER
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE
AND DEVELOPING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHUNT WCB OFFSHORE AND
LIMIT DEEP MOISTURE FEED INTO THIS SYSTEM, BUT POTENTIAL IS STILL
THERE FOR A MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA EARLY THU AM INTO THU EVE. MODEL GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC SET-UP
INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL INTENSITIES TO INCREASE
ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BEFORE IT WASHES OUT THU AM AND THEN
AS CONTINUE IN A MORE BANDED AND CONVECTIVE FASHION THU
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. WPC URRD INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF 1/2 TO
1" HOURLY RATES LATER THU MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AS DIURNAL/COLD
POOL INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. GENERALLY EXPECTING BASIN AVERAGE OF 0.50-
1" OF RAINFALL THROUGH THU NIGHT, MOSTLY FALLING EARLY THU AM INTO
THU EVENING, BUT COULD SEE SOME LOCALIZED SPOTS OF 1.5-2" IF/WHERE
DOWNPOURS/EMBEDDED TSTMS ACTIVITY IS MOST PERSISTENT. LOW
PREDICTABILITY ON EXACT LOCATION AT THIS POINT, BUT SHOULD HAVE MORE
DETAIL AS THE EVENT IS RESOLVED BY HIGH-RES CAMS OVER THE NEXT 24-36
HRS.
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES NORTHEAST THU NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. PRECIP WILL LIKELY DISSIPATING THU NIGHT WITH STABILIZING
LOW-LEVELS AND THEN POTENTIALLY RE-DEVELOPING FRIDAY AM INTO
AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON CLOSED LOW POSITIONS, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS.
PEA-SIZE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
ACTIVITY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
TRANSITION FROM PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHING TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW
THIS WEEKEND WITH STRONG WAA PATTERN UNDER DEEP W/SW FLOW
ALOFT, AND THEN BUILD-IN OF SOUTHERN UPPER RIDGING BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT/BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES SUN AFT AND CROSSES SUN EVE. HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S
ON SATURDAY (LOWER 80S NE NJ AND ADJACENT NYC METRO). WARMEST
DAY OF THE WEEKEND APPEAR TO BE SUNDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE 80S (EVEN FOR THE COAST) WITH DEEP MIXING AND OFFSHORE
FLOW.
COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY
CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE
SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL
BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME
CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT.
SIGNAL FOR BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO PASS NE TO SW THRU THE ENTIRE
AREA SUN NIGHT, BEFORE WORKING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT. SO DESPITE DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT AND 850HPA TEMPS
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS, AIR TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL
LIKELY BE NOTABLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY FOR THE CITY/COAST WITH
ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE LOWER 50 DEGREES WATERS. TEMPS ALONG THE
SOUTH AND EAST COAST MAY BE COOLER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST, AND
STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S/LOWER 70S. AREAS FARTHER WEST OF
THE HUDSON R SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO REACH WELL INTO THE
70S/LOWER 80S.
POTENTIAL FOR WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR (PARTICULARLY AWAY
FROM THE SOUTH COASTS) ON TUESDAY WITH DEEP SW FLOW AND MIXING
DOWN OF 850 HPA TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS. TEMPS COULD RISE INTO
THE LOWER 90S-95 ACROSS THE NYC/NJ METRO AND 80S ELSEWHERE. TDS
APPEAR TO STILL BE IN THE LOWER 60S, WHICH SHOULD KEEP HI NEAR
AIR TEMP.
TEMPERATURES RISING TO 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE SAT THU MON
AND POTENTIALLY 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE WEDNESDAY.
VFR. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES INTO THIS EVENING, THEN SOME BKN MID LEVEL
CIGS ARRIVE OVERNIGHT.
WINDS INITIALLY WILL BE SW-S THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT FOR A FEW COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME S 5-10
TONIGHT, THEN START TO INCREASE TOWARD DAYBREAK, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST. WINDS GUST AT ALL COASTAL TERMINALS BY OR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z WED, WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KT TOWARDS MIDDAY FOR KJFK AND
KISP.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE EARLY EVENING AT
KSWF. S WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30KT, HIGHEST GUSTS
UP TO 35 KT AT SOUTH FACING THE COASTAL TERMINALS. LLWS POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AT KISP WITH S WINDS 45 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. IFR POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT, OTHERWISE MVFR EXPECTED. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE
EVENING AT KSWF AND AT THE NYC METROS AFTER MIDNIGHT. S WINDS G20-
25KT MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AT
KISP/KGON WITH S WINDS 40 KT AT 2 KFT AGL.
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE AFTERNOON TSTMS.
IFR COND POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE MORNING AND WITH ANY TSTMS,
OTHERWISE MVFR COND EXPECTED. MAINLY LIGHT NW WINDS, OTHERWISE SE
WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT KISP/KGON.
FRIDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BRIEF MVFR
COND POSSIBLE, OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS G15-20KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY: VFR. W WINDS UP TO 10 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY OCCUR FOR THE
ENTRANCE OF NY HARBOR AND ADJACENT OCEAN WATERS AND SOUTH SHORE
BAYS. OTHERWISE, SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF TONIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT DURING
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
QUICKLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR ALL WATERS AND LIKELY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR
THE OCEAN FOR SOUTHERLY WIND WAVES. MARGINAL GALE CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY FOR THE ENTRANCE OF NY HARBOR AND ADJACENT OCEAN
WATERS AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS WED AFT/EVE WITH HYBRID
SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY
RESULTING IN A LIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A RETURN TO SUB
ADVISORY WINDS.GENERALLY SUB ADVISORY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH MARGINAL NEARSHORE SCA GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTERNOON AND SUN FRO OFFSHORE FLOW.
SCA OCEAN SEAS ARE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY IN RESPONSE
TO E/SE SWELLS FROM OFFSHORE LOW AND EXITING COASTAL LOW.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 2 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ331-332-335-340.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ338-345-
353-355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM WEDNESDAY TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
FOR ANZ350.
DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...NV
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