637
FXUS61 KOKX 062046
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING.
2) A WARMING TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY TWO POTENTIAL ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO SATURDAY,
NOSING DOWN FROM THE NORTH. CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE, ISOLATED LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE INLAND LATE TONIGHT, AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE AND A RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. A
WARM FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING AND DEW POINTS WILL BE RISING
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS COMING UP OVER THE
COLD OCEAN FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY.
THE WARM FRONT MAY JUST REACH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY, OR MOVE
SLIGHTLY INTO THE REGION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING SHOWERS BECOME LIKELY. IN ADDITION WITH ELEVATED CAPE
DEVELOPING SATURDAY EVENING, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE TRIPLE POINT TRACKS INTO THE REGION.
WITH SOME WARM ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOLDING STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE
NIGHT, AND LOWS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FOG WILL BE
MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY NIGHT, AND MAY BECOME LOCALLY DENSE,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE OCEAN WATERS AND INTO THE ADJACENT LAND AS
DEW POINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S. THE FRONTAL WAVE AND
WEAK COLD FRONT PASS EAST SUNDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS. INLAND TEMPERATURES SUNDAY COULD REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 60S, WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE 50S ALONG THE
COAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A MORE PERSISTENT SW FLOW REGIME SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTENSIFYING TO THE SOUTHEAST, ALMOST LIKE
A BERMUDA HIGH TYPE SETUP. THIS SW FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER
AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MONDAY WILL LARGELY BE THE
60S, ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST. BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
HIGH TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE NYC METRO MAY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. COASTAL AREAS AND LONG ISLAND LIKELY REMAIN
IN THE 50S WITH THE COLD WATER MODERATING THE AIRMASS. IF THERE
IS MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND DIRECTION, WARMER
AIR COULD PUSH FURTHER EAST UNTIL THE OCCURRENCE OF AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.
RAIN SO FAR APPEARS TO BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH NEARBY LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
AND PASSES THROUGH. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED AND A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT DID
NOT STRAY FROM NBM AND LEFT OUT THIS MENTION. IMPACTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM ARE LIKELY LIMITED. AFTER THIS, ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD BRING A WINTRY MIX THAT WOULD PROBABLY CHANGE
OVER TO ALL RAIN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. NOT ANTICIPATING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPACTS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS COLD AIR FOR
WINTRY CONDITIONS APPEARS TO BE LIMITED.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH INTO TONIGHT. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST ON SATURDAY.
MAINLY IFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG. LIMITED
IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY, LIKELY REMAINING IFR OR
LOWER AT MOST TERMINALS. CONDITIONS DECLINE FURTHER INTO
SATURDAY EVENING.
NE WINDS WEAKEN BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE INTO TONIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING OUT OF THE S/SSE
TOWARD 15Z SAT, SPEEDS REMAIN LIGHT.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CEILINGS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR TODAY.
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH VISIBILITIES TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY AFTER
00Z.
CHANCE OF DRIZZLE AND LIFR OVERNIGHT INTO SAT AM.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY PM: IFR OR LOWER. SHOWERS LIKELY AT NIGHT. SW GUSTS
15-20 KT AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN THE MORNING, THEN VFR.
MONDAY: VFR. SW GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN LIKELY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH A PERSIST NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE OCEAN WATERS, AND A
DEPARTING LOW TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS OCEAN SEAS EAST OF FIRE
ISLAND INLET WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AN
EASTERLY SWELL. OCEAN SEAS MAY BRIEFLY FALL BELOW 5 FEET
SATURDAY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM OCEAN SEAS AND GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO SCA LEVELS
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND
ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SCA EAST OF FIRE
ISLAND INLET WAS EXTENDED THROUGH 600 PM EDT SUNDAY, AND A SCA
WAS ISSUED FOR THE WATERS WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT, 600 PM EST TO 600 PM EDT SUNDAY. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
CONTINUE ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR
THE NON OCEAN WATERS WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE
SOUTH SHORE BAYS MAY SEE GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS BRIEFLY
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH PRIMARILY S TO SW SUSTAINED WINDS UNDER 15 KTS. WINDS
FROM THE SAME DIRECTION THEN INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING AND PASSING THROUGH
SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST. SCA TO POTENTIAL GALES ARE CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED WEDS IN THE WEDS NIGHT.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SATURDAY TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...JC/MET
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...JC/MET
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