250
FXUS61 KOKX 210543
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
143 AM EDT TUE JUL 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BOTH THE SEVERE AND FLASH FLOOD RISK HAVE INCREASED. THERE IS
NOW A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA
AND AND ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST NJ AND NYC.
A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NJ AND NYC.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF ON WEDNESDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE SOUTH
SHORE BAYS, PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS AND THE EASTERN LI SOUND.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST NJ AND NYC. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY.
2) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL OCEAN BEACHES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED FOR
WEDNESDAY. (SEE MARINE SECTION FOR DISCUSSION)
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HEIGHTS START LOWERING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHEAST US. AT THE SURFACE, THE CENTER OF
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK WELL TO THE NORTH THROUGH
SOUTHERN CANADA. ONCE THE HIGH OVER OUR AREA SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY,
A RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP LEADING THE WAY FOR A WARM FRONT TUESDAY
MORNING. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW TUESDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SLOWING
DOWN AND LINGERING OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS SET UP WILL
BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALSO
POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE SEVERE AND FLASH FLOOD RISK HAS
INCREASED WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
WHILE NO TWO EVENTS ARE THE SAME, THE SET UP TOMORROW IS SIMILAR TO
WHAT WE SAW LAST SATURDAY. THE FIRST ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL MOVE
THROUGH FROM THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH
THE WARM ADVECTION. THERE COULD THEN BE A BRIEF LULL BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND MOVES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AHEAD
OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. WHILE AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE EARLIER ROUND, THE HIGHER
RISK LOOKS TO BE WITH THE LATER ROUND.
IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES AND WPC, THE SLIGHT
RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AND A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST NJ AND NYC.
CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW POTENTIAL HIGH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES IN
AND AROUND THIS AREA WITH GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWING PWATS PEAKING
BETWEEN 2 AND 2.25 INCHES. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED NORTHEAST NJ AND
NYC FOR NOW GIVEN HIGHER CONFIDENCE HERE DUE TO LOW FFG AND
URBAN AREAS. PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ HAVE 1 HOUR FFG AS LOW AS
0.65 INCHES. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE FLOOD WATCH TO BE
EXPANDED BY SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS, SPECIFICALLY UP INTO THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY. TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN
1 AND 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE. PEAK RAINFALL RATES IN THE STRONGEST STORMS COULD BE
NEAR 2.5 INCHES PER HOUR.
IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER, THE ENHANCED RISK NOW REACHES INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NJ AND NYC. THIS WAS DUE TO INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN THE DAMAGING WIND RISK COVERAGE. THERE HAS BEEN NO
INCREASE TO EXPECTED INTENSITY. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE DURING THE LATER ROUND IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. THIS WILL BE SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON A
BREAK/CLEARING BETWEEN ROUNDS, BUT ALL GUIDANCE HAS A TONGUE OF
2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE STRETCHING NORTH INTO THE AREA BY THE
EVENING. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, BUT GIVEN
DECENT MODELED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE, AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY THERE IS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.
THE TRAILING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO SLOW DOWN AND NOT PASS THROUGH
THE AREA UNTIL LATER ON WEDNESDAY. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
STILL OVERHEAD, IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME, THERE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A FLOOD THREAT WITH
THIS, BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DOES LOOK POSSIBLE.
POTENTIAL FLOOD THREAT WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL
WE RECEIVE TOMORROW.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
*HIGH IMPACT AVIATION WEATHER DAY TODAY*
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION TODAY, BRINGING SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.
A WARM FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TERMINALS THIS MORNING AND
POSSIBLY EARLY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA, BEST
CHANCES NORTH AND WEST OF NYC TERMINALS. CONDITIONS LIKELY
DECLINE TO MVFR IN THIS ACTIVITY, BEFORE A MORE WIDESPREAD ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINALS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH LIKELY PERSISTS INTO THE FIRST PART
OF TUESDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS, WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 50KT
OR GREATER. IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR
TERMINALS EAST OF NYC.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AT OR UNDER 10 KT BECOMES S/SE AFTER SUNRISE WITH SPEEDS
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA TODAY COULD BE OFF BY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
IFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN SHRA/TSRA.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS.
THURSDAY - SATURDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND PEAKS TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE DURATION OF THE FLOW,
OCEAN SEAS BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FEET BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE NY
HARBOR AND WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUND. THIS IS FOR 25 TO 30 KT
GUSTS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GALE FORCE GUSTS, MAINLY FOR
FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT FROM 20NM TO 60NM. SCA
CONDITIONS MAY LINGER ON THE OCEAN DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS INTO
THURSDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
RIP CURRENTS:
THE RIP CURRENT RISK WAS INCREASED TO MODERATE TODAY GIVEN SURF
OBSERVATIONS.
A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BUILD A WIND WAVE
ON TUESDAY TO 5 FT 5S PERPENDICULAR TO THE COAST. THE FLOW
REACHES 20 KT BY THE AFTERNOON.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE LINGERING SWELL WILL PEAK ABOUT 7-8FT AT 8-9S.
THIS COMBINED WITH A SW 15-20KT FLOW WILL ALLOW THE HIGH RISK TO
CONTINUE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR NYZ072>075-176-178.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT
FOR NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ332-340.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ345-350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JT
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