705
FXUS61 KOKX 282145
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
445 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE BERGEN,
ROCKLAND, WESTCHESTER, AND PUTNAM COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FRIGID CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY IS IN PLACE 1 AM THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY FOR ALL OF NE
NJ, NYC METRO, LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND NASSAU COUNTY.
2) A STRONG STORM DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
SNOW IS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF ACCUMULATION
CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.
3) GUSTY WINDS AND AT MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
DESPITE GROWING LIKELIHOOD THE COASTAL STORM PASSES WELL
OFFSHORE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A PASSING SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT REINFORCES ALREADY
COLD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING THURSDAY FOR ALL OF NE
NJ, NYC METRO, LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND NASSAU COUNTY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEENS ACROSS
EASTERN LONG ISLAND. BELOW ZERO TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE IN FAR
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THIS BRINGS BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS TO MOST
OF THE AREA IN THE ADVISORY AREA TO 10 BELOW ZERO.
UNSEASONABLY COLD WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUANCES LIKELY. LITTLE TO NO
RELIEF DURING THE DAYTIME AS AFTERNOON HIGHS THU AND FRI ARE IN THE
LOW 20S TO UPPER TEENS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THERE IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING POTENTIAL OF
SNOW ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT FROM THE STRONG WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW
PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND.
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS HAVE STARTED TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH POTENTIAL OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE SPREAD IN THE ENSEMBLES IS STILL
QUITE LARGE FROM A CLOSER PASS OF THE STORM LEADING TO A SIGNIFICANT
SNOWSTORM TO SOLUTIONS THAT MISS THE ENTIRE AREA OF ANY SNOWFALL.
SEVERAL SOLUTIONS THAT ARE PLAUSIBLE YIELD A PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDING
FAR ENOUGH NW TO GRAZE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY EASTERN
LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. IF
THE PRECIP SHIELD EXTENDS FAR ENOUGH NW, THEN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
COULD PUSH FURTHER WEST TOWARDS THE NYC METRO/HUDSON RIVER CORRIDOR.
THE EXTENSION WELL NW OF THE LOW CENTER APPEARS TIED TO HOW MUCH
UPPER JET AMPLIFICATION OCCURS TO OUR NORTH. THE GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
FLIPPING BACK AND FORTH WITH THIS FEATURE WHICH LEADS TO LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN ITS EVOLUTION. THE LATEST WPC PROBABILITY OF SEEING AN
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL (AT LEAST 3 INCHES) SNOW RANGES FROM 50 TO
70 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND THE REST OF LONG ISLAND AND NYC
METRO TO 10 TO 30 PERCENT FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
ANOTHER PLAUSIBLE SCENARIO WOULD BE THE PRECIP SHIELD REMAINS
COMPLETELY OFFSHORE WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOWFALL OVER THE AREA. THE AI
MODELS (EC-AIFS, AIGFS) HAVE BEEN STARTING TO HINT AT THIS SCENARIO,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW GIVEN THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL SPREAD IN
THE ENTIRE SUITE OF GUIDANCE.
THERE ARE SOLUTIONS IN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD THAT BRING THE LOW CLOSER
TO THE COAST OR MUCH MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD, BUT THESE ARE
LOWER PROBABILITY SCENARIOS AT THIS TIME. THE NBMV5.0 PROBABILITY OF
6 INCHES OF SNOW REMAIN LOW ACROSS THE AREA AND GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 PERCENT NYC ON WEST AND 20-30 PERCENT EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT.
CHANGES TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM ARE STILL POSSIBLE WHICH
COULD IMPACT THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME OVER THE REGION. STAY TUNED TO THE
LATEST FORECASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC STORM SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY THIS
WEEKEND. SEVERAL MODELS HAVE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPING TO AROUND
970 MB OR EVEN LOWER. THE DEEPER THE STORM OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BRINGS CONCERNS FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY NEAR OUR COASTS, EVEN IF THE SYSTEM STAYS HUNDREDS OF
MILES OFFSHORE. N WINDS COULD GUST 35-45 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST CONNECTICUT. IF THE LOW ENDS UP A
BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST, THE CHANCE FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (AT
LEAST 45 MPH GUSTS) WOULD INCREASE AND EXPAND FURTHER INLAND. THESE
DETAILS WILL BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND BEACH
EROSION/BEACH FLOODING. A FULL MOON OCCURS ON SUNDAY COINCIDING WITH
WHEN THE STORM SYSTEM IS AT ITS STRONGEST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AN EARLY LOOK AT SOME OF THE SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. A FEW OF THE MORE VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY COULD
APPROACH MODERATE BENCHMARKS. THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME OWING TO THE SPREAD IN THE UNCERTAINTY IN
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE.
AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRES BUILDS IN W OF THE AREA THRU THU.
VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WSW FLOW VEERS TO THE NW TNGT. SPEEDS
GENERALLY AOB 10KT THRU TNGT, THEN SPEEDS INCREASE AFT 15Z THU.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION POSSIBLE THRU 00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
REST OF THURSDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20KT.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR INITIALLY, THEN MVFR OR LOWER
POSSIBLE WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW, MAINLY LATE NIGHT SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE TERMINALS EAST OF NYC.
NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS INCREASING AT NIGHT TO 20-25 KT, THEN 30-35KT
ON SUNDAY. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME ON THE MAGNITUDE
OF WINDS AND SNOW.
MONDAY: VFR WITH NW FLOW.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY FOR ALL WATERS. MARGINAL
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO TAKE PLACE ON THE OCEAN
WITH GUSTS GETTING CLOSE TO 25 KT AT TIMES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ON A NW TO NW FLOW FRIDAY
NIGHT.
CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS AND
SEAS INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. GALE CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE
PORTIONS OF THE OCEAN WATERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MONDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
NYZ067>075-176>179.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BR/DS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...BR/DS
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