448
FXUS61 KOKX 151950
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
350 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD
COUNTY IN CT FROM 10 PM TONIGHT THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR ISOLATED
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. EASTERLY SWELLS FROM DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY CAUSE UP TO 1/2 FOOT OF INUNDATION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH BUILDS THIS WEEKEND INTO WEDNESDAY.
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY MON AND TUE AFT/EVE WEST OF
THE HUDSON R, WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY WITH COLD FRONTAL
APPROACH WED AFT/EVE.
2) COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH GOOD
BOATING WEATHER, AND WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE LOWER 50S.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
UPPER LOW SLIDE EAST THIS EVENING WITH ANY DIURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND E LI COMING TO AN END AND
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING. HEIGHTS RISE TONIGHT WITH FLAT UPPER
FLOW THIS WEEKEND, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OFF THE SE
US COAST, ALLOWING FOR A WARMER AIRMASS TO BEGIN ADVECTING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
WITH 850 HPA TEMPS RISING TO AROUND 10C ON SATURDAY,
STRENGTHENING S/SW FLOW AND DEEP MIXING AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN COASTS, AIR TEMPS WILL RISE WELL INTO 70S FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. LOWER 80S FOR NE NJ AND ADJACENT NYC METRO. UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG SOUTH COASTAL COMMUNITIES, WITH FLOW OFF
LOW 50S DEGREES WATERS.
A SHORTWAVE SLIDING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND CANADIAN
MARITIMES SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WILL HAVE A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS WITH
THIS FEATURE INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH WEAK FORCING AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS WELL AS MOISTURE POOLING.
HIGH TEMPS LIKELY REACH INTO THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY, WITH W/WNW FLOW AND DEEP MIXING TO 850HPA TEMPS RISING
TO AROUND 14C TEENS TO START THE DAY, BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
AFTERNOON SOUTH COAST SEABREEZES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGHS
10-15F DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE. HIGHS LIKELY GET INTO THE
UPPER 80S ACROSS METRO NE NJ, WITH LOWER 80S TO 85 QUITE
POSSIBLE FOR ALL BUT THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE IF OFFSHORE FLOW
MATERIALIZES AS EXPECTED. THAT WOULD PUT BDR AND ISP CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS SUNDAY, WHICH IS 85 SET BACK IN 1974.
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN EARLY NEXT WEEK, ANCHORED BY BERMUDA
HIGH PRESSURE, BRINGING IN THE WARMEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON BY
TUE/WED. ONE CAVEAT, IS THAT AS A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
DIGS THRU THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY IT WILL
BRING A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON MONDAY. SO DESPITE
850 HPA TEMPS RISING SOLIDLY INTO THE MID TEENS ALOFT, A
MARITIME INFLUENCE WILL LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP SOUTH AND EASTERN
COASTAL AREAS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LATEST NBM
GUIDANCE MAY BE A TAD TOO WARM FOR COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY,
ALTHOUGH A WEAK FLOW IN THE MORNING COULD ALLOW FOR RAPID
HEATING DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER, WITH REDUCED MARITIME INFLUENCE AND DEEPER MIXED LAYER
LIKELY GETTING INTO THE LOWER 80S-85 (10-15 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONABLE). POTENTIAL FOR LATE DAY ISOLATED TSRA ACTIVITY WEST
OF THE HUDSON, AND THEN MONDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE, WITH WARM FRONTAL
APPROACH/PASSAGE AND WEAK VORTICITY ROUNDING THE RIDGE IN A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE (ELEVATED)/WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY WARM SECTORED TUE/WED, WITH 850 HPA TEMPS
CONTINUING TO RISE INTO THE UPPER TEENS. WITH S/SW FLOW AND DEEP
MIXING THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE SEASON SO
FAR, PARTICULARLY AWAY FROM SOUTH AND EAST COASTS. HIGHS 15 TO 25
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL LIKELY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS NYC/NJ
METRO AND INTERIOR, AND AT LEAST 10 TO 15 ABOVE FOR COASTAL AREAS.
AT THIS TIME, FORECAST HIGHS FALL SHORT OF RECORD HIGHS (MID TO
UPPER 90S). NBM 5.0 GUIDANCE HAS BEEN LOWERED A TAD, BASED ON
SYNOPTIC SET- UP AND CONCERNS BIAS ALGORITHMS ARE OVER-
CORRECTING AS WE QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AIRMASS. NONETHELESS, WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AND AREAS TO THE N&W LOOK LIKELY. WITH TDS
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOWER 60S, HEAT INDICES WOULD BE NEAR
THE AIR TEMPS, KEEPING HEAT ADVISORY POTENTIAL LOW AND SPARSE
ACROSS NE NJ AND POSSIBLY LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
NYC. ELSEWHERE, TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE AREA, WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S FOR IMMEDIATE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COASTAL COMMUNITIES.
POTENTIAL FOR LATE TUESDAY ISOLATED TSTM ACTIVITY, MAINLY N&W
OF NYC, WITH APPROACH OF PRE-FRONTAL/THERMAL TROUGH AND WEAK
VORTICITY LOBES ROUNDING THE RIDGE. LOW AND SPARSE SEVERE
POTENTIAL IN A WEAK SHEAR/MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. GLOBAL
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR MIDWEEK CONTINUES TO SHOW A BREAK DOWN OF THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED UPPER-LOW TRAVERSING
CANADA. BETTER CHANCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND ISOLATED
SEVERE POTENTIAL WED AFT/EVE WITH FALLING HEIGHTS, APPROACHING
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/COLD FRONT, AND LIKELY BETTER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. THIS BETTER POTENTIAL INDICATED BY CSU-MLP AS WELL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL
INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE
GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS, CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN
ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO AVOID THIS THREAT.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEPARTS TO THE NE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE WEST.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME BRIEF
MVFR CIGS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR KGON AS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
DEPARTING UPPER LOW MOVE THROUGH , BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW
DEPARTING, CHANCES ARE DECREASING.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY, 10-15 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS TO 20 KT OR SO. SEA BREEZE IS TRYING TO MAKE ITS WAY
THROUGH KBDR, BUT MAY PUSH BACK SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE NW FLOW STRENGTHENS A BIT, SO HAVE TEMPO GROUP FOR S WINDS
THERE THROUGH 20Z. OTHERWISE, PEAK GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR KEWR. GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL AT TIMES.
WINDS THIS EVENING DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTH OR
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KT, INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KT BY MID
MORNING WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL TODAY. A FEW GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN FORECAST.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY: VFR. S-SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY: VFR. SW WINDS 5-10KT.
MONDAY: VFR. SE WINDS 5-10KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. S-SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: VFR BECOMING MVFR OR LOWER IN ANY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. S TO SW WINDS 10 TO 15
KT, BECOMING WSW BY LATE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 15 TO 20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SE SWELL FROM LOW PRESSURE HEADING UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIME
WILL CONTINUE SCA SEAS ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF TONIGHT. THE RESPITE WILL BE SHORT-LIVED, AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDS ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
THEN TO THE EAST.
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IS LIKELY TO BRING A RETURN TO SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS
WELL AS 25 KT GUSTS IN LOWER NY HARBOR AND SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF W
LI. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THE SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, OCEAN SEAS COULD LINGER AROUND 5 FT ON THE
OCEAN WATERS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY WITH RESIDUAL S SWELL.
THERE ARE COLD WATER SAFETY CONCERNS THIS WEEKEND AS WATER
TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOWER 50S. THE COLD WATER TEMPERATURES
CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND PHYSICAL INCAPACITATION TO ANYONE
SUDDENLY IMMERSED IN THE WATER. ANYONE GOING OUT ON SMALL BOATS,
CANOES OR KAYAKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY AND USE EXTREME CAUTION TO
AVOID THIS THREAT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
AS FLOW TEMPORARILY WEAKENS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY REDEVELOP ON THE OCEAN WATER TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW, POTENTIALLY FOR ALL WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ338-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...NV
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