629
FXUS61 KOKX 271441
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1041 AM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP TODAY, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
2) COOLER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
3) MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE PRECEDED BY A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
BEFORE THAT HAPPENS THOUGH, ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP
TODAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE SHORE GETTING
UP INTO THE 80S. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO TOP A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST DUE TO A CANOPY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. DESPITE
THE UNCERTAINTY IN CLOUD FORECAST, THERE WAS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO LOWER HIGHS TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN EXPECTED.
HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL BLOCK
SOME OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH ENERGY FROM ADVANCING NORTH, BUT
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS CROSSING THE NYC METRO AREA AND
LONG ISLAND LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREAFTER, WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. NAM-3KM AND HRW NSSL MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE WITH A LINE
DEVELOPING AND MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND SW CT, ESPECIALLY GIVEN MEAGER LAPSE RATES, BUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS THE AREA IN A GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK. DRY AIR IN THE MIXED LAYER AND A MID LEVEL
CAP ARE ALSO LIMITING FACTORS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS TIME. MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A LOW- TOPPED THUNDERSTORM. THE
BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WHILE THERE
ARE TIMING ISSUES WITH THESE DISTURBANCES, WIDESPREAD RAIN STAYS
MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. EASTERN PORTIONS OF CT AND
LI HAVE CHANCES OF ABOUT 30 TO 50 PERCENT, BUT FALLING OFF TO
THE WEST. THIS BY NO MEANS WILL BE WASHOUT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THERE IS A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK TODAY WITH RESIDUAL 2-FT
SE SWELL AND 2-FT S WIND WAVES.
AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A WARM FRONT SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS WILL LIFT NORTH AND WEAKEN
THIS MORNING. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.
MAINLY EXPECTING A VFR FORECAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO, CAN NOT RULE OUT A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS IN ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE AT KSWF, BUT THE CONFIDENCE OF ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING OVER A TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF
AT THIS TIME.
SW WINDS 10KT OR LESS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE TOWARDS MIDDAY
WITH SOME TERMINALS GUSTING 15 TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BECOME NW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN AROUND
10KT OR LESS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
VERY LOW CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT KJFK LATE THIS MORNING.
LOW CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER AT KGON, OTHERWISE VFR.
FRIDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS/MVFR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SATURDAY: CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS/MVFR MAINLY AT KGON/KISP/KBDR.
NW WINDS G20-25KT IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
FOG EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN WATERS INTO THIS EVENING. THE CAMERA
AT BUOY 44065 DOES SHOW SOME VSBY RESTRICTION HAVING DEVELOPED
THIS MORNING. WILL ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR THIS
ATTM. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING IN A W FLOW BECOMING NW. BEST CHANCE LOOKS
TO BE EAST OF MORICHES INLET.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BG/JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...BG/JP
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