422  
FXUS61 KOKX 180116 CCA  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
916 PM EDT WED OCT 17 2018  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND THEN EAST  
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT AND PUSHES  
OFF SHORE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE REST OF THE  
WEEKEND AND PUSHES OFF SHORE MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES  
LATE TUESDAY.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
 
 
DRIED THE FCST OUT OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ON THE  
CSTL WATERS. OTHERWISE, THE FRONT IS WELL OFFSHORE AND THE FCST  
IS ON TRACK.  
 
GOOD MIXING EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THIS  
FRONT, WITH A GUSTY W/NW FLOW OF 30 TO 40 MPH. LIKELY GRADUALLY  
FALLING BACK TO 25 TO 30 MPH LATE AT NIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
 
 
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AXIS SLIDES EAST THURSDAY MORNING,  
WITH DEEP NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS TO THE SW OF THE REGION.  
 
THIS SETUP SHOULD SPELL A SUNNY DAY OUTSIDE OF SOME EARLY  
STRATO-CU FROM LAKE STREAMERS. WITH DEEP MIXING, NW GUSTS OF 25  
TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 850 HPA TEMPS ONLY  
MODERATING TO -6 TO -8 C WOULD SPELL HIGH TEMPS ONLY IN THE MID  
TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE REGION. THESE TEMPS ARE GENERALLY 15  
DEGREES BELOW SEASONABLE.  
 
WINDS AND GUSTS SHOULD SUBSIDE IN THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE  
BUILDS TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD  
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH A  
MODERATE PROBABILITY OF A HARD FREEZE DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER  
20S IN THESE AREAS. POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING TEMPS ACROSS THE NEXT  
TIER OF ZONES SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT, WHERE A FREEZE WATCH/WARNING  
MAY BE NEEDED.  
 
ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN, PARTICULARLY NYC AND LI,  
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MIXING TO PRECLUDE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING.  
TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S ONCE  
AGAIN, WITH LOWER 40S FOR NYC/NJ METRO.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
THIS PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-  
ATLANTIC STATES, PUSHING OFF SHORE DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AN  
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH  
EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE  
TROUGH. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY,  
WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL  
TROUGH WILL BE SLOWER TO PUSH OFF SHORE AS A SEMI-PERMANENT LOW SETS  
UP OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE  
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS WELL AS HELP  
TO LOCK IN COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH  
THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY, WHICH WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.  
 
AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, LAKE EFFECT PRECIPITATION WILL  
COMMENCE AS COOLER AIR MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS THE  
POTENTIAL FOR A SHOWER TO AFFECT NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA,  
SUCH AS ORANGE COUNTY. ADDITIONALLY, THE ECMWF IS HINTING AT OCEAN  
EFFECT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLY AFFECT LONG ISLAND. HOWEVER,  
CONFIDENCE AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE EVEN  
A SLIGHT CHANCE JUST YET, SO WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY FOR SATURDAY  
NIGHT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  
 
THEREAFTER, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY.  
HOWEVER, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS WITH THE  
TRACK OF A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL  
SYSTEM. THE ECMWF BRINGS IT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. WILL INCLUDE  
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS STATES IN THE WAKE  
OF AN EARLIER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. NW WINDS WILL GUST INTO THE  
20S FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD, THOUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF LULL  
IN GUSTS FROM ABOUT 08Z-09Z TIL ABOUT 13Z. WINDS ALSO LIKELY TO  
VEER A LITTLE MORE NW (320 TRUE) FROM 08Z-09Z TIL ABOUT 17Z,  
THEN BACK TO 290-300 TRUE THEREAFTER.  
 
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS, CAN  
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.  
 
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.  
 
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.  
 
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.  
 
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD.  
 
KISP TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
 
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
VFR WITH DIMINISHING NW WINDS.    
FRIDAY
 
VFR. SW WINDS 10G15-20KT.    
SATURDAY
 
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ACCOMPANYING MVFR CONDS. SW WINDS  
10-15G20-25KT.    
SUNDAY
 
VFR. W-NW WINDS 15G20-25KT.    
MONDAY
 
VFR.  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE WATERS THIS EVENING. THE  
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN ITS WAKE WILL  
BRING GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO ALL WATERS THIS EVENING INTO THE  
OVERNIGHT, LIKELY LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN OCEAN WATERS  
THURSDAY MORNING. A GALE WARNING CONTINUES TO ADDRESS THIS  
THREAT. OCEAN SEAS LIKELY BUILD TO 5 TO 9 FT ON THE OCEAN,  
HIGHEST SOUTHEAST OF MORICHES INLET TONIGHT, AS WELL AS CONTINUE  
AT 3 TO 5 FT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN LI SOUND.  
 
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELENT ON THURSDAY AS CAA WANES AND  
GRADIENT WEAKENS, WITH SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON THE OCEAN  
WATERS, BUT GUSTS LIKELY BECOMING MARGINAL ON THE NEARSHORE  
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SCA ON ALL WATERS  
THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH.  
 
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF STRONG SCA CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY INTO  
SUNDAY WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT  
SATURDAY. WAVES HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 8 FT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE OCEAN  
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE  
FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY (WITH BRIEF RESPITES FOR NON-OCEAN  
WATERS), WITH SOME OCEAN ZONES POSSIBLY TOUCHING GALE FORCE WINDS  
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER  
THE WATERS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  
 

 
   
CLIMATE
 
 
HERE ARE THE RECORD MINIMUM HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR OCT 18TH.  
 
LOCATION.................TEMP/YEAR  
CENTRAL PARK...............45/2009  
JOHN F KENNEDY AIRPORT.....49/2009  
LAGUARDIA AIRPORT..........47/2009  
NEWARK, NJ.................47/2009  
BRIDGEPORT, CT.............47/2009  
ISLIP, NY..................47/2009  
 

 
   
EQUIPMENT
 
 
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF  
THE AIR FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ005>008.  
NY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NYZ067-068.  
NJ...FREEZE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ002.  
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-  
345-355.  
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353.  
 

 
 

 
SYNOPSIS...JP/NV/JMC  
NEAR TERM...JMC/NV  
SHORT TERM...NV  
LONG TERM...JP  
AVIATION...GOODMAN  
MARINE...JMC/JP/NV  
HYDROLOGY...JP/NV  
CLIMATE...  
EQUIPMENT...  
 
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