383
FXUS61 KOKX 280353
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1153 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WIDESPREAD MARINE DENSE FOG HAS ENDED AND THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. AREAS OF DENSE FOG FROM THE
WATERS FROM MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY FROM 20 TO 60
NM CONTINUE HOWEVER. THEREFORE, A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED UNTIL 2 AM TO COVER THIS SITUATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE THEREAFTER AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
KEY MESSAGES
1) COOLER FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
2) THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.
3) A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES DROPPING
SE ACROSS ERN CANADA WILL CARVE OUT AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THROUGH FRI NIGHT. SO AFTER A WARMER THU/FRI WITH TEMPS RUNNING
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, SAT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
ALMOST BRISK, WITH A NW WIND GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH. TEMPS DAYTIME
SAT PER MOS MAY NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 60S, BLENDING THAT WITH
WARMER NBM YIELDS TEMPS AT LEAST REACHING THE LOWER 70S ACROSS
THE NYC METRO AREA AND LONG ISLAND. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER
SOMEWHAT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS 70-75 WHICH IS ACTUALLY CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AN UPR LVL LOW MAY STALL OVER THE NORTHEAST AND PRODUCE CHANCES
FOR SHWRS AND ISOLD TSTMS MON-WED. SOME OF THE MODELING
HOWEVER SUGGESTS A MORE TRANSITORY PATTERN, PRODUCING LESSER
CHANCES DURATION-WISE. THE BLENDED APPROACH WAS FOLLOWED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
A RESIDUAL 2-FT 7 TO 8 SEC SE SWELL LINGERING.
AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST AND PUSHES AWAY OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS AND GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR PREVAILS.
WINDS NW OVERNIGHT MAINLY AT 5 TO 10 KT. NW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-
15KT WITH G20-25 KT ON THURSDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LOW CHANCE OF A SHOWER LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING THURSDAY, OTHERWISE
NO AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: CHANCE OF AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER AT KGON, OTHERWISE
VFR. NW WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THE EVENING AND SETTLE IN AT 5-
10KT LATE.
FRIDAY: VFR. SW WINDS G15-20KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS AT NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY AT KGON/KISP/KBDR. NW-N WINDS G20-25KT
SATURDAY.
SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WIDESPREAD MARINE DENSE FOG HAS ENDED AND THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. AREAS OF DENSE FOG FROM THE
WATERS FROM MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY FROM 20 TO 60
NM CONTINUE HOWEVER. THEREFORE, A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT WAS
ISSUED UNTIL 2 AM TO COVER THIS SITUATION. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE THEREAFTER AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN FROM
LATE FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT AFTERNOON, WITH SEAS UP TO 5 FT
AND WIND GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT IN A W FLOW BECOMING NW. BEST
CHANCE LOOKS TO BE E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JMC/GOODMAN
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JMC/GOODMAN
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