077
FXUS61 KOKX 300228
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1028 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE SAME FRONT THEN RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY, LIFTING
THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY
NIGHT WILL ALLOW HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE AREA
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS MADE ITS WAY WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE
AREA THIS EVENING, JUST NORTH OF KPHL AS OF 10PM. EARLIER
TEMPERATURES FELL 25 TO 30 DEGREES IN ONE HOUR. TEMPERATURES
HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL THIS EVENING WITH MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 40S. LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR CT AND SOUTHEASTERN CT
HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP OF THE
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL CONTINUE BRING A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF ANY OF THIS
ACTIVITY. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY EXPANDING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY WITH THE COOL NE-E FLOW.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHERN CT,
TO THE LOWER 40S FOR THE REST OF THE AREA. THIS IS ABOUT 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY AS THE BEST THERMAL
FORCING LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, EASTERLY FLOW AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 40S EASTERN LI/SE CT, TO THE LOWER AND MID 50S ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND THE NYC/NJ
METRO. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY BUT MORE LIKELY AT
NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY HERE WITH SOME OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTING
COLDER 2M TEMPS. THE NBM AND CONSENUS ARE A BIT WARMER. WENT IN
BETWEEN THE WARMER NBM AND COOLER MODEL CONSENSUS.
WARM FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASSES TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
FLOW. CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AT NIGHT BUT STILL NOT
EXPECTING HIGH CHANCES WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. LOWS WILL PRETTY MUCH BE WHAT THE
HIGHS WERE ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RISE SUNDAY
NIGHT. TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S,
POSSIBLY NEARING 60 ACROSS NE NJ AND THE NYC METRO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE MODELING OVER THE LONG TERM HAS REMAINED RELATIVELY CONSISTENT.
THE FIRST SYS IS A CDFNT MON AND MON NGT. THE FROPA IS STILL TIMED
FOR MON NGT. SOME SCT SHWRS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY MON AS HEIGHTS
FALL IN GENERAL, BUT THE BEST FORCING IS INVOF THE SFC FRONT WHICH
REACHES WRN AREAS AROUND 00Z, BISECTS THE AREA AROUND 6Z, AND IS
OFFSHORE BY 12Z TUE. SOME SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE TIMING POSSIBLE AS
WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE EVENT. CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHCS FOR TSTMS
WITH THE BEST FORCING LATE MON AND MON NGT. MOST OF THE CONVECTION
ATTM SHOULD BE ELEVATED, LIMITING IMPACTS TO HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN
AND ISOLD LIGHTNING. HOWEVER, TIGHTLY PACKED THICKNESSES ALONG WITH
COLD POOL PROCESSES COULD PRODUCE A STRONG BURST OF WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT. BEST ESTIMATES ATTM 40-50KT PEAK GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THIS
SCENARIO.
NW FLOW AND CLEARING ON TUE. TEMPS BACK CLOSE TO NORMAL IN THE 50S.
IT STILL LOOKS COLD TUE NGT WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE FCST
REMAINS MAINLY 20S WITH A FEW 30S IN THE WARMEST URBAN/CSTL
LOCATIONS.
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYS WED. CHANCES FOR SHWRS WED
NGT THRU FRI AND PERHAPS SAT AS A WRMFNT COMES THRU, FOLLOWED BY THE
ASSOCIATED CDFNT WHICH POTENTIALLY STALLS IN THE AREA. RIGHT NOW THE
MODELING DOES NOT SUGGEST RAIN FOR DAYS ON END, BUT WITH THE FRONT
IN THE AREA AND QUASIZONAL FLOW ALOFT, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF
POSSIBLE SHWRS. WENT WITH THE BLENDED APPROACH AND STUCK WITH THE
NBM FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS
TONIGHT. THE SAME FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY APPROACH AS A WARM
FRONT ON SUNDAY, LIFTING NORTH OF THE TERMINALS SUNDAY NIGHT.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THROUGH 05Z AND THEN
FALL TO IFR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LIFR CEILINGS ARE
LIKELY AROUND DAY BREAK SUNDAY AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST 14-15Z. CONDITIONS LIKELY BEGIN IMPROVING TO IFR INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE CEILINGS DO NOT IMPROVE
AND REMAIN IFR AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
EVENING WITH LIFR AND FOG POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST,
AS THE WARM FRONT STARTS LIFTING OVER THE AREA.
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE TONIGHT.
ENE-E WINDS 10-15 KT TO START WILL SETTLE UNDER 10 KT OVERNIGHT.
ENE-E WINDS THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY
UNDER 10 KT. THE FLOW WILL BEGIN SHIFTING E-ESE SUNDAY EVENING,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SOUTH COASTAL TERMINALS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR TIMING AND CHANGES OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
VISIBILITIES MAY END UP HIGHER THAN FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
S WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT DEVELOPING LATE. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
MONDAY: MVFR/IFR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING,
THEN SHOWERS AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AT NIGHT. S-SW WIND GUSTS 20-25KT, BECOMING NW
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. LLWS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR COASTAL TERMINALS.
TUESDAY: VFR. N-NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT MAINLY DURING THE
DAYTIME.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE FOR MVFR AND SHOWERS AT NIGHT.
E-SE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT, ESPECIALLY AFTERNOON INTO THE NIGHT.
THURSDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA ON THE LI SOUND AND LI BAYS AS WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED BELOW 25 KT. GUSTS AT SEVERAL NEARSHORE STATIONS REMAIN
NEAR 25 KT IN THE NY HARBOR, SO HAVE LEFT THE SCA HERE, WHICH
EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT. GUSTS ON THE OCEAN WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BELOW
25 KT OVERNIGHT, BUT SEAS REMAIN ELEVATED. NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE SCA ON THE OCEAN. SEAS WILL ALSO START OFF AROUND 5 FT
SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE OCEAN WATERS EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. A
BRIEF RESPITE SUNDAY BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN
TO THE OCEAN WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY.
A FRONTAL SYS WILL PRODUCE SOLID SCA COND ON THE OCEAN MON AND
MON NGT, WITH GALES POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE, SCA WINDS POSSIBLE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE AREAS OF FOG, POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS, AND
MAYBE A BURST OF GALE FORCE WINDS AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
PASSES THRU MON NGT.
A SCA WILL BE NEEDED ON THE OCEAN FOR TUE, WITH WINDS MRGNL
ELSEWHERE. WINDS ON WED BLW SCA LVLS, BUT SEAS ON THE OCEAN MAY
REMAIN AOA 5 FT. WINDS AND SEAS COME UP AGAIN THU WITH ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYS.
HYDROLOGY
SOME LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING, MAINLY URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE, IS
POSSIBLE LATE MON AND MON NGT WITH A FRONTAL SYS. NO ADDITIONAL
HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TUE-SAT.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
WITH TIDES RUNNING ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH WITH THE NEW MOON, LESS
SURGE WILL BE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. AN EASTERLY
FLOW TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH OF A SURGE ACROSS WESTERN LI
SOUND TO PUSH WATER LEVELS TO RIGHT AROUND COASTAL FLOOD
BENCHMARKS AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ALONG SOUTHERN
FAIRFIELD CT. WITH EXCEEDANCE OF MINOR BENCHMARKS ONLY EXPECTED
TO BE 0.2 FT OR LESS, COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENTS REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT FROM 10PM TO 1AM EDT.
MORE SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH MINOR COASTAL FLOOD BENCHMARKS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, EXPANDING BEYOND THE SHORELINES OF FAIRFIELD
CT TO ALSO INCLUDE SOME OTHER ADJACENT SHORELINE AREAS ALONG
WESTERN LI SOUND AS WELL AS THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
THE LOWER NY HARBOR.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ338.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ355.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW/DS
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JMC/DW/DS
HYDROLOGY...JMC/DW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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