893  
FXUS61 KOKX 251141  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
741 AM EDT THU JUL 25 2024  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR FRIDAY AND THE  
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE SATURDAY  
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AND REMAINS OFFSHORE INTO THE BEGINNING OF  
NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY AS A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
 
 
THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK. TOOK OUT MENTION OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 8 AM AS MOST OF ANY PRECIPITATION  
LOOKS TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY GIVEN  
CURRENT RADAR AND MODEL GUIDANCE. ADDITIONALLY, ISSUED A DENSE  
FOG ADVISORY FOR THE TWIN FORKS OF LONG ISLAND. VISIBILITY WILL  
BE REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS. DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO  
CONTINUE UNTIL 11 AM OR PRIOR THIS MORNING, GRADUALLY IMPROVING  
AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES.  
 
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, WILL SLOWLY TREK  
NORTHEAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL  
ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO SLOWLY APPROACH TODAY, MOVING THROUGH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.  
 
SYNOPTIC MODELS AND CAMS CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE  
PRECIPITATION OFFSHORE. THIS LIKELY HAS TO DO WITH A  
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW AND GRADUAL MID-LOW  
LEVEL DRYING THROUGH PEAK HEATING HOURS. THE BEST SHOT AT ANY  
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING FOR EASTERN  
ZONES, AS THEY MAY BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE A BIT AHEAD OF THE  
COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, SOME CAMS ARE HINTING AT SOME HEAVIER  
SHOWERS THAT APPEAR TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY  
ACROSS EASTER LONG ISLAND THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS  
AFTERNOON. PERHAPS THE SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT  
TRIGGER SOME CONVECTION. STILL, ANY SHOWER LOOK TO BE LIMITED IN  
COVERAGE. AGAIN, ANY STRONGER SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM COULD  
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, BUT POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING  
REMAINS LOW.  
 
MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL  
DESPITE BEING WARM SECTORED, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE  
80S EXPECTED. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HUMID, AT LEAST THROUGH  
MUCH OF THE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEW POINTS  
INT EH UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL START TO SLOWLY DECREASE FROM  
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM MORNING ONWARD. BY LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON, DEW POINTS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE  
60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT EASTERN AREAS, WHERE THE FRONT  
MAY NOT HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THERE BY THIS TIME, AND HUMID  
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF  
TONIGHT.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO  
SATURDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE  
DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH SHOULD  
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO  
RUN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, GENERALLY IN  
THE MIDDLE 80S. DEW POINTS SHOULD FALL INTO THE 50S FOR THE ENTIRE  
AREA. WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE NBM AS IT TYPICALLY DOES  
NOT GO LOW ENOUGH IN REGARDS TO DEW POINTS AND HOW DRY THE AIR  
TYPICALLY IS BEHIND COLD FRONTS. SATURDAY WILL SEE DEW POINTS COME  
UP SLIGHTLY, BUT SHOULD STILL BE LESS HUMID THAN RECENT DAYS.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
 
 
A RELATIVELY QUIET PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT  
INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS  
TOWARD THE EAST COAST, AND THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE. MEANWHILE, A  
WEAK CUTOFF LOW REMAINS ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO MONDAY,  
AND THEN IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A  
SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE  
SHORTWAVE THEN REMAINS INTO WEDNESDAY AS ENERGY ROTATES THROUGH  
THE REGION.  
 
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING  
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. AND  
WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE  
AIR TEMPERATURES. THEN WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION  
THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATER TUESDAY INTO  
WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE  
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND A RETURN  
FLOW SETS UP.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
 
 
A WARM FRONT WAS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH LONG ISLAND, AND TO  
COASTAL CONNECTICUT EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE  
TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT  
MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING.  
 
VFR AT THE NYC METRO TERMINALS, WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE EARLY.  
TO THE EAST IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CEILINGS WILL BE IMPROVING TO  
VFR BY 14Z. THERE ARE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WITH IMPROVEMENT TO  
VFR, AND THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.  
 
E/SE WINDS AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT SHIFT TO S AND SW, THEN TO  
W BEHIND THE FRONT. LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING  
WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND A COLD FRONT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS  
15 TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING IN THE  
NYC METRO AREA.  
 
SHOWERS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT  
LIFTS NORTH AND A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION.  
THERE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IS FROM THE NYC TERMINALS AND  
EAST. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF  
SHOWERS HAVE OPTED TO KEEP VCSH. AND HAVE LEFT OUT THUNDERSTORMS  
WITH ANY STORMS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED.  
 
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
ANY REMAINING MVFR CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR, AND  
REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL  
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY KJFK. WINDS SHIFT S TO SW,  
THEN W THIS MORNING, AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL BE  
POSSIBLE, WITH MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AT KEWR.  
 
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR FLIGHT CATEGORIES EARLY THIS MORNING,  
AND FOR WIND SHIFT TIMING INTO THIS MORNING.  
 
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...  
 
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM ACROSS  
PECONIC AND GARDINER'S BAYS, THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUND, AND  
THE EASTERN OCEAN ZONE. VISIBILITY WILL BE REDUCED TO 1 NM OR  
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME.  
 
WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA, WINDS AND SEAS/WAVES  
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE THROUGH THE  
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, OCEAN WATERS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH  
5 FT TONIGHT BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT  
WEEK.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT THE OCEAN BEACHES WILL  
REMAIN THROUGH THURSDAY AS A 3 TO 4 FT S/SE SWELL AT 7 TO 8 SECONDS  
CONTINUES. RIP ACTIVITY COULD BE LOCALLY HIGH DUE TO THE SPRING  
TIDES.  
 
THE MOST VULNERABLE SHORELINE AREAS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF  
NASSAU COUNTY AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND MAY APPROACH AND  
TOUCH MINOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WITH TONIGHT HIGH TIDE.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NYZ079-081.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ331-332-  
340-350.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JP/MET  
NEAR TERM...JP  
SHORT TERM...JP  
LONG TERM...MET  
AVIATION...MET  
MARINE...JP/MET  
HYDROLOGY...JP/MET  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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