225  
FXUS61 KOKX 051932  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
332 PM EDT SAT JUL 5 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD  
FRONT THEN APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY, PASSING  
SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY OR EVEN STALLING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY  
INTO MIDWEEK. A MORE ROBUST FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA  
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGES INTO THE  
REGION WITH A LIGHT SW FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS  
AND LOW TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT. DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT  
WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOW 70S IN THE CITY AND AROUND 70 FOR  
MOST COASTAL AREAS, TO THE MID 60S WELL INLAND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
 
 
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY WITH SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING. H8  
TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO 17-18C, SO ANTICIPATING HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID  
90S IN THE USUAL WARMEST SPOTS IN NE NJ, AND MOSTLY UPPER 80S TO  
AROUND 90 AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE SOUTH-FACING COASTS.  
 
DEWPOINTS NEAR THE THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER LOOK LOW ENOUGH FOR  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT AT LEAST A LITTLE DURING THE AFTERNOON  
FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE COAST - EVEN ON A SW FLOW. THIS WILL HELP  
KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT  
WITH PATCHY FOG LATE.  
 
THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ANTICYCLONIC DURING MONDAY, BUT LESS SO  
DURING MONDAY NIGHT AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION FROM CHANTAL  
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. IT PROBABLY REMAINS DRY THROUGH MOST  
OF THE MORNING AS THE ONLY NOTABLE LIFT AVAILABLE APPEARS TO BE  
FROM INCREASING INSTABILITY, BUT HELD IN CHECK BY MID-LEVEL  
CAPPING. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WOULD THEN BEGIN THEREAFTER  
WITH MECHANICAL LIFT JOINING IN VIA A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE(S) HEAD  
OF CHANTAL'S CIRCULATION. CHANCES THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY  
NIGHT WITH THE REMNANT SYSTEM EVEN CLOSER, BUT THERE'S NOT  
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FROM THE VARYING MODEL SOLUTIONS TO GO WITH  
LIKELY POPS. SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS A NARROW BAND OF  
SUBSIDENCE FORMING OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN  
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST AND CHANTAL'S REMNANTS FROM  
THE SOUTH. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM  
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER REGARDING TROPICAL CYCLONE  
CHANTAL.  
 
REGARDING TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDICES FOR MONDAY, H8 TEMPERATURES  
DON'T CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH FROM SUNDAY, BUT WILL PERHAPS BE SLIGHTLY  
WARMER. EVEN IF THIS IS THE CASE, THERE SHOULD BE MORE AFTERNOON  
CLOUD COVER AS COMPARED TO SUNDAY, THEREFORE ANTICIPATING SLIGHTLY  
LOWER HIGH TEMPS FOR THE MOST PART THIS TIME AROUND. SURFACE  
DEWPOINTS WILL BE HIGHER, HOWEVER. BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS INCREASE  
WITH THE APPROACH OF CHANTAL'S REMNANTS, MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR  
SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT. RIGHT NOW IT STILL APPEARS THAT 1-DAY  
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL NOT BE MET. HOWEVER, AN ADVISORY COULD  
STILL BE NEEDED IN A FEW AREAS FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY BASED ON 2-DAY  
CRITERIA.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
DESPITE THE UNSETTLED NATURE OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST, GLOBAL MODELS  
WERE IN FAIRLY DECENT AGREEMENT, SO THE NBM WAS FOLLOWED.  
 
A COLD FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND STALL IN THE  
VICINITY TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY, HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL LOWER BUT FLOW  
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL WITH A SUBTLE TROUGH TO THE WEST.  
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE  
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  
 
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PROMOTE A GENERAL S/SW  
FLOW WHICH LIKELY BRINGS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE UP THE EAST COAST. THE  
COMBINATION OF SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH, A  
STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY, AND A MOIST S/SW FLOW WILL  
ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST TO HAVE A  
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WPC HAS THE AREA IN A MARGINAL  
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.  
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY  
RAINFALL WITH SOME ISOLATED HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS.  
 
BY THE END OF THE WEEK, MORE ROBUST ENERGY IN THE FLOW APPROACHES  
FROM THE WEST AND ALLOWS THE TROUGH TO DIG INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS  
WILL PROVIDE FOR A BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL  
AS A SLIGHT DECREASES IN TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE MAY TRY TO  
BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY.  
 
DESPITE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD  
REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 80S THROUGH MID-WEEK AND UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S  
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
 
 
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY.  
 
S-SSW WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS DECREASE IN THE  
EVENING, THEN GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT OUTLYING TERMINALS  
OVERNIGHT. S-SSW WINDS REDEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING, INCREASING TO  
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  
 
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
AN OCCASIONAL GUST 16-19 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 23Z.  
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
 
 
 
SUNDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT: MAINLY VFR AFTERNOON/EVENING. SSW GUSTS  
AROUND 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE EAST OF  
NYC METRO TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.  
 
MONDAY-THURSDAY: MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/  
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH MFR-IFR. HIGHEST CHANCE EXISTS LATE  
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON ALL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST  
SUNDAY MORNING. NEAR-ADVISORY GUSTS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON  
INTO EVENING ON THE OCEAN WITH SEAS CLIMBING TO AROUND 4 FT. SUB-  
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE THEN LIKELY FOR MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST  
THURSDAY.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
NO HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF  
NEXT WEEK. SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY FEED INTO THE AREA TUESDAY  
INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF  
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A  
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
NO WIDESPREAD HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE  
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY FEED INTO THE  
AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR AN ENVIRONMENT WITH  
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. WPC HAS PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A  
MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ002-  
004-006-103>108.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...JC/MW  
NEAR TERM...JC  
SHORT TERM...JC  
LONG TERM...MW  
AVIATION...DS  
MARINE...JC/MW  
HYDROLOGY...JC/MW  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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