669
FXUS61 KOKX 090023
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
823 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOOD THREAT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
INCREASINGLY WARM AND MUGGY ON THU AND FRI, WITH HEAT INDICES
PEAKING IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S FOR ONE DAY ON FRIDAY.
3) MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH SEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
GOOD AGREEMENT ON MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY CLOSED UPPER LOW
SHEARING TOWARDS THE REGION THU AFT/EVE, WITH A RESULTANT WEAK
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE TRACKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC, AND LEE/PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING AND
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THESE FEATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO PROVIDE A TRIGGER/FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NYC/NJ METRO AND N&W IN A
MARGINALLY (LOCALLY MODERATE) UNSTABLE AND WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THIS ENVIRONMENT, BUT CAN'T RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING PULSE WET MICROBURST THREAT,
PARTICULARLY IF THERE IS MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN ALLOWING FOR
MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT. ENVIRONMENT IS MORE CONDUCIVE
TO AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH HIGH PWATS (2-2.25"), A
DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER, AND MBE VECTORS LESS THAN 5KT. HIGHER
FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE ACROSS SE PA/S NJ WITH HIGHER
INSTABILITY AND ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT/CONVERGENCE WITH THE
WEAK SURFACE WAVE. STILL AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD RISK IS
SIGNALED FOR THE NYC/NE NJ METRO REGION IN THE HIGH RES-
GUIDANCE, DEPICTED THRU BEING ON THE EDGE OF HREF 10% ENSEMBLE
PROB FOR 3"/3HR, AND HIRES ARW AND NSSL WRF INDICATING MAX
NY/NJ METRO NEIGHBORHOOD VALUE OF 2 1/2 TO 3" IN 3/HR IN WPC
URRD. WILL ADDRESS IN HWO, AND LET MIDNIGHT SHIFT EVALUATE ANY
NORTHWARD TRENDS. DIMINISHING SEVERE/FLASH FLOOD THREAT IN THE
LATE EVENING IN WAKE OF TROUGH.
ON FRIDAY, NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, WITH A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF MEAN TROUGHING ACROSS
THE REGION, WHILE A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
THE REGION FRIDAY AFT/EVE. AT THE SURFACE, THIS WILL HAVE A
STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. TRIGGER AND FOCUS IS ONCE AGAIN THERE FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI
AFT/EVE, WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE/FLASH FLOOD THREAT. A SLIGHTLY
BETTER SEVERE THREAT ON FRIDAY AFT/EVE WITH 30-35KT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILE TO COMPLEMENT MARGINAL TO LOCALLY MODERATE
INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE MAIN
THREAT. FLASH FLOOD THREAT LOOKS A BIT LOWER THAN THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHTLY LOWER PWATS (MID- LEVEL DRYING IN WAKE OF THURSDAY
PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH) AND QUICKER ANTICIPATED STORM MOVEMENT.
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL ULTIMATELY BE CONTINGENT ON MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT, STORM COVERAGE, AND POTENTIAL SW TO
NE TRAINING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY BASED ON MBE VECTORS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. HIGHS COULD COME
CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES IN THE NYC METRO AND NE NJ WITH MOST OTHER SPOTS
REACHING THE UPPER 80S ON FRIDAY, WITH MAX HEAT INDICES SHOULD REACH
THE LOW TO MID 90S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT IN MEAN UPPER TROUGHING SLIDING ACROSS THE NE
US THIS WEEKEND AND OFFSHORE ON MONDAY, WHILE AT THE SURFACE
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THRU THE
WEEKEND AND OVERHEAD BY MONDAY.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONABLY WARM LEVELS. THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY, WHILE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND/OR
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE BEING ACROSS THE NYC TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWER
CONFIDENCE ELSEWHERE WITH PROB30 GROUPS OR NO MENTION. OUTSIDE
OF ANY CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT FROM THE S/SW,
INCREASING TO 10-15KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH BRIEF MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY: VFR.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THU AND FRI WITH MODEST S/SW FLOW OF
15G20KT. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT POSSIBLE FOR OCEAN WATERS
WEST OF FIRE INLET, ENTRANCE TO NY HARBOR, AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN
BAYS EACH DAY WITH COASTAL JET DEVELOPMENT. SEAS GENERALLY 3 TO
4 FT.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARDS AND THEN OVER THE WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS THROUGH
FRIDAY, DUE TO A MIXTURE OF 1-3 FT S WIND WAVE AND LINGERING
1-3 FT SE/E SWELLS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...DW
MARINE...NV
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