453
FXUS61 KOKX 171829
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
229 PM EDT WED JUN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING.
2) BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW.
3) RAIN, POTENTIALLY HEAVY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO NEAR 25-30 KT WILL CREATE ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN BEACHES THURSDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY
EVENING. BREAKING WAVES NEAR 4 TO 7 FT ARE LIKELY. HIGH RIP CURRENT
RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW
MORNING WILL BRING IMPACTS TO THE AREA. A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTH
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPOTTY DRIZZLE, MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER. AS WE
BECOME WARM SECTORED, A SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER THE AREA QUITE
SUBSTANTIALLY RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 30-35 MPH. A FEW GUSTS MAY APPROACH 40 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN
ANY AREAS THAT ARE ABLE TO SCATTER OUT A MORNING OVERCAST CLOUD
DECK.
BY LATE MORNING, WESTERN AREAS MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK OUT INTO SOME
SUNSHINE WHICH WILL ASSIST IN RAISING TEMPERATURES, INCREASING WIND
VIA BL MIXING, AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. THE COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES
IN FROM THE WEST INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THE DYNAMICS OF THIS
SYSTEM ARE MORE ROBUST THAT USUAL WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
50-70KT. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR THE FRONT TO INTERACT WITH AND DEVELOP
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THINKING NOW IS THAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON, ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND MOVES
FAIRLY QUICKLY EAST SUCH THAT THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS FROM 12-5PM. THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AS ANY THUNDERSTORM SHIFTS EAST, INTERACTIONS WITH THE MARINE BL
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WEAKENING OF ANY STORMS GIVEN
THE LACK OF INSTABILITY. IF A STORM REMAINS PERSISTENT ENOUGH AS IT
TRAVELS EAST, IT MAY BE LOCAL STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING STRONG WIND
GUSTS THROUGH THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION, THOUGH THIS REMAINS A
DECREASING THREAT FOR AREAS FURTHER EAST.
THE STORM THREAT QUICKLY ENDS BY EVENING WITH WINDS FALLING OFF
TOWARD SUNSET AS WELL AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO A MORE WSW WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
KEY MESSAGE 3
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTH TOWARDS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE FOR RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWER CHANCES START LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOME
MOST LIKELY MONDAY AND TAPER OFF EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN COULD
POTENTIALLY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY. PWATS COULD APPROACH NEAR 1.75 INCHES FOR MONDAY ACROSS THE
COASTAL AREAS.
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS WILL LIKELY HAVE TIMING CHANGES AS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND LOW
PRESSURE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE TERMINALS, LIFTING TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON FROM NYC TERMINALS ON NW. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ALSO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AROUND THU AM AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
AND THIS COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW CIGS, MAINLY
AFTER 9Z. INCREASING CHANCES FOR TSRA EARLY THU PM AHEAD OF THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT, AND INTRODUCED A PROB30 TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL THRU 20Z THU.
S-SE FLOW TODAY 10-15 KT, WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT,
STRONGEST AT COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS SETTLE TO 10 KT OR LESS
TONIGHT. S/SSW THEN INCREASES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING AFTER 12Z. ISOLATED GUSTS TO 35 KT THU
PM.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THRU EARLY THIS EVENING.
UNCERTAINTY WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
COULD REMAIN VFR.
TIMING OF TSRA THU PM COULD BE OFF BY +/- 2 HOURS.
ISOLATED GUSTS 35 TO 40 KT POSSIBLE THU PM.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY PM: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THRU LATE
AFTERNOON, MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. S/SW WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
25-30 KT, STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST. WINDS BEGIN TO LIGHTEN IN
THE EVENING.
FRIDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 20 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. WNW-NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
SUNDAY-MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH RAIN.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS BOTH INCREASE TO
ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FAIRLY QUICKLY DEVELOP BY 6AM WITH GUSTS INCREASING TO A
PEAK AROUND 30-35 KT THROUGH THE DAY ON ALL WATERS WITH SEAS
INCREASING TO 6-8 FEET ON THE OCEAN. WHILE 35+ KT GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, THEY SHOULD BE INFREQUENT ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE ISSUANCE
OF GALES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH COULD BRING 35KT GUSTS OR HIGHER.
WINDS SHIFT TO MORE W BY THURSDAY EVENING AND FALL BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS ON ALL WATERS. RESIDUAL HIGH WAVES ON THE OCEAN WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO CONTINUE THERE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN ZONES. SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY ON ALL WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT LINGERING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE WATERS ON MONDAY, WITH SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
RIP CURRENTS:
TODAY, THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE DUE TO SE FLOW INCREASING TO
AROUND 10KT AND WAVES AROUND 2 FT.
FOR THURSDAY, THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS HIGH WITH STRONG S WINDS AND
WAVES AROUND 4-6 FT.
FOR FRIDAY, THE RIP CURRENT RISK IS MODERATE TO HIGH WITH LINGERING
SWELL AND GUSTY W WINDS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...MW
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