219
FXUS61 KOKX 181121
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
721 AM EDT THU JUN 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HAVE
INCREASED WIND GUST POTENTIAL FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A BREEZY DAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A ROUND OF STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
2) DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXPECTED TODAY AT OCEAN BEACHES,
POTENTIALLY CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY BEACHES.
3) AFTER A DRY WEEKEND, A ROBUST LOW PRESSURE MAY BRINGS PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A DEEP SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AS A MID/UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ACCOMPANY IT.
AN IMPRESSIVE (FOR JUNE) 130KT JET AT 300MB DIVES SOUTH FROM
THE PACNW WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION PROGGED TO BE OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEP SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTS WITH AN APPROACHING WARM
FRONT LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE WARM FRONT
WILL PUSH NORTH OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING AS THE ATTENDANT SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. THE AREA THEN BECOMES WARM SECTORED,
SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING AS
THE WARM FRONT SURGES THROUGH, BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION.
WITH THE WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME GUSTY,
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 30-35KTS FOR A PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. BEST CHANCES FOR THESE GUSTY WINDS WILL BE FOR NYC NORTH
AND WEST, WHERE DESTABILIZATION/CLEARING WILL BE MOST LIKELY. AN
INVERSION JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE IS ADVERTISED IN THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT, WHICH MAY INHIBIT GUST
POTENTIAL HERE. NONETHELESS, HRRR MAX WIND GUST POTENTIAL KEEPS
GUSTS IN THE 25-20KT RANGE, AND NBM MAX GUST VALUES LOOK TO BE IN
THE MID 30S MPH, LENDING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECASTED
MAGNITUDE.
FINALLY THE SEVERE TSTM THREAT, WHICH WILL MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TODAY IS ANOTHER CONDITIONAL DAY IN
THE SENSE THAT MUCH WILL HINGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
DESTABILIZE. THIS LOOKS TO BE A HIGH SHEAR, LOWER CAPE EVENT, WITH
BULK SHEAR VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 60KTS. SBCAPE/MUCAPE VALUES HOWEVER
LOOK RELATIVELY UNIMPRESSIVE, WITH PREFRONTAL VALUES OF 500-1000J/KG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. DCAPE VALUES ARE DECENT,
HOWEVER, NEAR 800-1000J/KG, SUGGESTING DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
BIGGEST THREAT WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SPC DOES MAINTAIN THE SLGT
RISK FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT ANY STORM THAT DOES
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT HAS THE CHANCE TO BE SEVERE, BUT
COVERAGE MAY BE MORE ISOLATED AND FOCUSED MORE ON THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST. TIMING WOULD BE ABOUT 1PM -
6PM FROM WEST TO EAST.
KEY MESSAGE 2
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO NEAR 25-30 KT, ESPECIALLY LATE THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, WILL CREATE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN
BEACHES. BREAKING WAVES NEAR 4 TO 7 FT ARE LIKELY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHERLY SWELL OF NEAR 7 TO 8 FT WITH 7 TO 8 SECOND PERIOD. A HIGH
RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY ON FRIDAY, BUT LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL WILL
CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY FOR SUFFOLK BEACHES. WAVE HEIGHTS SHOULD
SUBSIDE FURTHER WEST AND MAY RANGE FROM 3-4 FT, BUT COULD STILL BE 5-
6 FT FURTHER EAST. WILL FORECAST A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ON FRIDAY
FOR OCEAN BEACHES ACROSS SUFFOLK AND A MODERATE RISK FOR NASSAU,
QUEENS, AND BROOKLYN OCEAN BEACHES. HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE RIP
CURRENT STATEMENT FOR SUFFOLK OCEAN BEACHES YET TO ALLOW THE DAY
SHIFT ASSESS ANOTHER MODEL CYCLE OF WIND AND WAVE DATA.
KEY MESSAGE 3
GLOBAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON SAT. HEADING INTO THE
NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. MID LEVELS HAVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING
AROUND THE SAME TIME FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAKE
FOR RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. SHOWER
CHANCES START LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, BECOME MOST LIKELY MONDAY AND TAPER
OFF EARLY TUESDAY. RAIN COULD POTENTIALLY BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INCHES OF
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS LOOKING AT LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE FORECAST.
PWATS COULD APPROACH NEAR 1.75 INCHES FOR MONDAY ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WARM FRONT LIFTS TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
PASSES ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
IFR-LIFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 14-16Z, MAINLY EAST OF
NYC TERMINALS. ANY LINGERING IFR AT JFK AND LGA SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR BY 13Z. OTHERWISE, SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED THE PROB30 FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. IF A
THUNDERSTORM WERE TO DEVELOP, CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO
MVFR. VFR PREVAILS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
INCREASING S WINDS THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT DEVELOPING
MID TO LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS ALSO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GUSTS 35-40 KT 20Z-00Z AS THE DIRECTION
SHIFTS TO THE SW. LOCALIZED STRONGER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IF ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS.
WINDS WILL BECOME W-WNW TONIGHT WITH GUSTS ENDING AROUND 04Z.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS 10-15 KT LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE AFTER 14Z FRIDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL 14Z.
TSRA TIMING COULD BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
START TIME OF GUSTS THIS MORNING MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
ISOLATED GUSTS 35 TO 40 KT POSSIBLE 20Z-00Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 20 KT.
SATURDAY: VFR. WNW-NW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
S GUSTS 20 KT NEAR THE COAST.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT THIS MORNING, SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
SEAS WILL BOTH INCREASE TO ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS. GUSTS WILL INCREASE
TO A PEAK OF AROUND 30-35 KT THROUGH THE DAY ON ALL WATERS WITH SEAS
INCREASING TO 6-8 FEET ON THE OCEAN. AN OCCASIONAL 35+KT GUST IS
POSSIBLE ON ALL WATER, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, T
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD BRING 35KT GUSTS OR HIGHER.
WINDS SHIFT TO MORE W BY THURSDAY EVENING AND FALL BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS ON ALL WATERS. RESIDUAL HIGH WAVES ON THE OCEAN WILL
ALLOW THE SCA TO CONTINUE THERE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN ZONES. SCA
CONDITIONS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE WATERS ON MONDAY, WITH SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...DBR
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...DBR
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