510
FXUS61 KOKX 052335
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
735 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. VERY WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY LINGERING
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
2. POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HEAVY DOWNPOURS
THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SUBTROP RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE BREAKING DOWN LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE WESTERLIES ONCE AGAIN DROP BACK INTO THE
AREA. BEFORE THEN THOUGH, A DEEP-LAYERED S/SW FLOW WILL BRING
VERY HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS WILL FALL WELL BELOW
RECORDS, THE HIGH HUMIDITY WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE UNCOMFORTABLE.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ON THURSDAY ARE FORECAST TO GET TO AROUND
100, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES ON FRIDAY. THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA FOR BOTH DAYS, BASED ON TWO
CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES 95 AND ABOVE.
HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90,
WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. THE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO
RECORDS, BUT STILL LOOK TO FALL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW.
AS WE GET INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR, BUT WITH GRADUALLY LOWERING
HUMIDITY. HEAT ADVISORIES FOR SOME LOCATIONS MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY. BEYOND THAT TIME, IT LOOKS VERY
MARGINAL.
KEY MESSAGE 2
ALONG WITH THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL COME THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY
DESTABILIZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH DISTURBANCES IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS, MAINLY FOR NYC AND POINTS NORTH AND WEST.
FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MORE WIDESPREAD EVENT. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HIGH PW VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES. ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORMS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT WIND SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK. WPC HAS MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS FOR ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE WARM FRONT CLEARS AND LIFTS FURTHER NORTH DURING
THE MORNING.
CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THIS EVENING, ANYWHERE FROM
POCKETS OF VFR TO MVFR AND IFR. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING, MAINLY FOR TERMINALS FROM THE NYC METRO
ON N AND W.
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH FLIGHT CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT WITH PRECISE
TIMING OF PREVAILING MVFR AND IFR DEVELOPMENT. BY 05Z-06Z MOST
TERMINALS WILL GO TO SUB VFR, WITH COASTAL TERMINALS MORE LIKELY
TO HAVE PREVAILING IFR ALONG WITH LIFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES FOR
KISP AND KGON LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO VFR 13-15Z THURSDAY MORNING.
SE WINDS UNDER 10 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING. LIGHT SE
WINDS TONIGHT VEER TO THE S-SSW AT NYC TERMINALS WITH LIGHT/
VARIABLE ELSEWHERE. SW WINDS INCREASE THURSDAY MORNING, BECOMING
S-SSW BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AROUND 10 KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR FLIGHT CATEGORIES THIS EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THURSDAY MORNING MAY BE OFF BY AN
HOUR OR TWO.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE OF MVFR AND SHOWERS/STORMS
IN THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY N AND W OF NYC METROS.
FRIDAY: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF NYC METROS ON N AND W.
SATURDAY-MONDAY: MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SW FLOW WILL FEATURE GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KT ON THE OCEAN WATERS LATE DAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS S SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. THE MODERATE RISK
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY, HOWEVER IT MAY
INCREASE TO HIGH AT SOME BEACHES TOWARD EVENING AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SWELLS INCREASE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
CTZ005>012.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR CTZ009-
010.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DW
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