292  
FXUS61 KOKX 161731  
AFDOKX  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY  
131 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2025  
   
SYNOPSIS
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FARTHER EAST THROUGH  
TUESDAY AS A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE  
BOUNDARY EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT, MOVING THROUGH THE  
AREA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION  
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL FRIDAY  
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THE SURFACE FEATURES TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE  
CONTINUES TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND MAY JUST SHIFT/WEAKEN  
SLIGHTLY. A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE. ALOFT,  
HEIGHTS LOOK TO RISE SLIGHTLY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN.  
 
CONTINUES TO BE A TOUGH PRECIP FORECAST AS SUNDAY SEEMED TO  
OVERPERFORM A BIT. THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND IN THE LOW  
LEVELS, SPECIFICALLY FOR WESTERN LI, NYC AND NORTHEAST NJ WHICH IS  
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCE. THE QUESTION JUST  
REMAINS IF THERE IS ENOUGH LIFT AROUND AGAIN TODAY. WEAK CONVERGENCE  
IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN SO HAVE KEPT SLIGHT  
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.  
 
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND AGAIN TODAY, WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUN  
POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN CT ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN  
FLOW, CLOUD COVER AND AIRMASS TODAY, BLENDED IN SUNDAY'S OBSERVED  
HIGHS WITH NBM AND 10TH PERCENTILE NBM HIGHS. THIS GAVE JUST A FEW  
DEGREES WARMER THAN SUNDAY. STUCK WITH STRAIGHT NBM FOR LOWS TONIGHT  
WITH RADIATIONAL COOLING NOT EXPECTED.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
 
 
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS FURTHER ON TUESDAY AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE  
SOUTHEASTERLY. ADDITIONALLY, SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES ALOFT.  
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE STILL AROUND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWER  
ACTIVITY, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. GIVEN CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL  
SHOWERS WENT WITH THE COOLER SIDE OF NBM GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.  
 
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH AN  
APPROACHING WARM FRONT AND POTENTIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS  
SURGE WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH NEW 00Z GUIDANCE A TAD LOWER BUT  
STILL WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, ABOUT 2 INCHES.  
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO COME IN WITH A LESS POTENT SHORTWAVE AND LESS  
QPF THAN RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR ANY SORT OF  
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT, BUT HEAVIER DOWNPOURS WITH ANY SHOWERS  
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS THEN POTENTIAL FOR  
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.  
THIS COULD TRIGGER MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY  
GIVEN THE DESTABILIZATION THAT IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE DURING  
THE DAY. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE CSU MACHINE LEARNING SEVERE  
OUTLOOK PRODUCT DOES HAVE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA OUTLINED  
IN A 5% RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.  
 
WITH THE WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH, A DEEP W/SW FLOW AND SOME  
CLEARING, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE BACK UP IN THE 80S ACROSS THE  
AREA. ALTHOUGH WE MAY BE CLEAR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THE MOIST  
AIRMASS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING BELOW THE  
UPPER 60S.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
TIMING OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE REGION REMAINS  
CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WITH THE PASSAGE EXPECTED  
THURSDAY NIGHT. AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE UPPER  
MIDWEST THURSDAY AND TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO  
FRIDAY MORNING. AND A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY  
NIGHT. WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY, AND A  
VIGOROUS VORT MAX PASSING MAINLY TO THE NORTH, SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY  
AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE CAPE  
INCREASES TO 1500 TO AROUND 2000 J/KG BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON  
WITH SHEAR 25 TO 30KT. AND ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES SHOW INVERTED V WITH  
A LOW LEVEL JET. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE  
POSSIBLE LATE DAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS THESE AREAS WITH  
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT, AND THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER  
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A 15% OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INTO WESTERN  
ORANGE COUNTY, AND INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY.  
BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE  
STORMS, HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL  
WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AND NO TRAINING OF CELLS  
EXPECTED.  
 
OTHERWISE, THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE GENERALLY  
QUIET, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INLAND SUNDAY  
AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND BECOMES THE FOCUS FOR  
LIFT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING  
WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
 
 
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE TERMINALS AND A  
STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE SOUTH WITH WAVES OF LOW  
PRESSURE ALONG IT. THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT  
DURING TUESDAY.  
 
MAINLY MVFR FOR THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW POCKETS OF LOW END VFR  
FOR A FEW NORTHEASTERN TERMINALS INTO A PORTION OF THIS AFTERNOON,  
WITH POCKETS OF IFR PREVAILING AT TIMES FOR THE MORE SW TERMINALS.  
THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE FOR THIS  
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING FOR SOME TERMINALS, MAINLY AT THE  
NYC METRO TERMINALS AND ACROSS LONG ISLAND. LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST  
CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH REGARD TO THE  
TIMING OF SPECIFIC FLIGHT CATEGORIES, ESPECIALLY FOR LATE THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR  
WIDESPREAD IFR, AND LIFR FOR THE CITY AND COASTAL TERMINALS  
OVERNIGHT. VERY LITTLE TO NO IMPROVEMENT IS ANTICIPATED DURING  
TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE E TO NE 7-13KT THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW  
GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MOST COASTAL TERMINALS. THE WINDS  
OVERALL WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT, GENERALLY CLOSER TO 5 KT OR  
SLIGHTLY LESS LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  
 
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...  
 
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH NO  
SPECIFIC TIMING.  
 
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THIS  
EVENING. AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR FLIGHT CATEGORY CHANGES THROUGH  
TUESDAY AM.  
 
   
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
 
 
 
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: MAINLY IFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE, MAINLY AT  
NIGHT.  
 
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF IFR EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE WITH MVFR.  
 
THURSDAY: VFR. CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  
WITH MVFR.  
 
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: VFR.  
 
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,  
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90  
 

 
   
MARINE
 
 
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDS AND WAVES REMAINING  
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
OCEAN SEAS EAST OF MORICHES INLET MAY BRIEFLY REACH SCA LEVELS  
THURSDAY EVENING AS SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT INCREASE.  
OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS  
THE FORECAST WATERS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE  
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  
 
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS  
THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER  
HUDSON VALLEY AND INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY WITH A MOISTURE LADEN  
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE AND WARM CLOUD PROCESSES DOMINATING. HOWEVER,  
THE RISK OF FLOODING WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE SPEED OF ANY CELLS AND  
LACK OF OVERALL CELL TRAINING.  
 

 
   
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
 
 
RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS AT MODERATE FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE  
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST, THE RESULTANT 4 FT 8S  
WAVE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR A MODERATE RISK. THE WINDS BECOME A BIT MORE  
SOUTHEASTERLY ON TUESDAY AND WITH THE ONSHORE COMPONENT EXPECTING  
MODERATE AGAIN.  
 

 
   
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
CT...NONE.  
NY...NONE.  
NJ...NONE.  
MARINE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SYNOPSIS...MET/JT  
NEAR TERM...JT  
SHORT TERM...JT  
LONG TERM...MET  
AVIATION...JE  
MARINE...MET/JT  
HYDROLOGY...MET/JT  
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...  
 
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