695
FXUS61 KOKX 141135
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
635 AM EST WED JAN 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AIRMASS WILL TREND FROM MILD AND WARMER THAN NORMAL TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY TO COLDER THAN NORMAL FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE SEASONABLY COLD FRIDAY NIGHT.
2) PRECIPITATION WITH RAIN SHOWERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT MIXES
WITH SNOW THURSDAY BEFORE ALL PRECIPITATION ENDS. SOME LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. LIGHT
PRECIPITATION EVENT OVERALL WITH LESS THAN QUARTER INCH OF
RAIN/LIQUID EQUIVALENT.
3) WINDS BECOME QUITE BREEZY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH FREQUENT
GUSTS WITHIN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE. THIS IS MOSTLY A GUSTY
WESTERLY FLOW, ALTHOUGH WINDS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SW LATE
FRIDAY. SINGLE DIGIT WIND CHILLS FOR MOST LOCATIONS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
4) A DISORGANIZED SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND WHICH MAY RESULT IN CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN WITH A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AFTER MORE MILD TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT, WELL ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES, THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR TEMPERATURES DECLINING DURING
THE DAY. THE FORECAST HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE SET DURING THE VERY
EARLY AM HOURS. A NON-DIURNAL TREND TO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER, THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL AND WITH SOME MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT, LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
VALUES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRIMARILY WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND FROM VERTICAL FORCING WITH INCOMING POSITIVE VORTICITY
ADVECTION WITH DEEP TROUGH APPROACH. THE RAIN SHOWERS START
TODAY INTO TONIGHT BUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT, A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR SOME MIXING WITH SNOW AND PURELY SNOW FOR FAR INTERIOR
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
FORECAST MANUALLY ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE WET BULB COOLING
AND TO PICK UP ON A MORE RAPID COLD AIR ADVECTION SCENARIO.
TOTAL SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BE LESS THAN 1 INCH ACROSS INTERIOR
ZONES WITH NO MEASURABLE SNOW EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE COAST. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS, NEAR HALF INCH IN NW PARTS OF
ORANGE COUNTY NY, AND WITH TIMING OF THIS FOR THURSDAY MORNING,
THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE MORNING COMMUTE WITH
SLIPPERY TRAVEL POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 3
BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY IN
RESPONSE TO TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WILL BE A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AND THEN FARTHER
TO THE NORTH AND EAST. WIND GUSTS MOSTLY IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS DO TREND DOWN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR VERY COLD WIND CHILLS, IN THE SINGLE DIGITS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 4
A TROUGH DIGS WEST OF THE AREA WITH MULTIPLE PIECES OF MID-LEVEL
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH IT THIS WEEKEND. THESE WILL RESULT IN A
RELATIVELY WEAK, DISORGANIZED, AND COMPLEX AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AS THE SEVERAL WEAK SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA, CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW OR INITIALLY RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IF IT OCCURS, AS POPS ONLY INDICATE
A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%) OF PRECIPITATION, IT WILL BE LIGHT IN
INTENSITY AND DISORGANIZED.
BY MONDAY, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY SWEEPS THROUGH
ALLOWING IN A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFICATION AS IT
DEVELOPS AND MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE CWA IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY WITH RESPECT TO
SENSIBLE WEATHER.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PART OF THIS PATTERN WILL BE THE RAPID CHANGE
IN AIRMASS THAT MAINTAINS OVER THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
ON SATURDAY WILL BE SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW
40S. BY SUNDAY, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE, ONLY IN THE
LOW 30S WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HIGHS BY TUESDAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE 20S. WIND CHILLS BY MONDAY
NIGHT MAY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS WEST OF THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL DEEPEN AS
IT PASSES TO THE NORTH TONIGHT AND DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
VFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSWF WHICH MAY
BECOME MVFR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING. MVFR
BECOMES WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF
WINDOW WHERE IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.
CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN -RA TONIGHT HAS LOWERED AND HAVE PLACED IN
A PROB30 GROUP FOR MOST TERMINALS.
WINDS GENERALLY S/SSW UNDER 10 KT. WINDS BACK TO SSE, AND
POSSIBLY SE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE GOING
BACK TO SW WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. OVERALL LOWER THAN
NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND
09Z.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION IS LOWER THAN NORMAL, MAINLY
BETWEEN 21Z AND 09Z. REGARDLESS, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 10KT.
AMD MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS CIGS LOWER.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THURSDAY: SLIGHT CHANCE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW EARLY WITH MVFR OR
LOWER POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE VFR. W-NW WIND GUSTS 20 TO 25 KT.
FRIDAY: VFR. W-SW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR. LOW CHANCE MVFR OR LOWER AT TIMES WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. MVFR TO IFR OR LOWER IN LIGHT SNOW LATE IN THE
DAY.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA CONDITIONS ARE CONFINED TO THE OCEAN WATERS. THE OCEAN
WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY WITH SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
THURSDAY AS SEAS WILL SUBSIDE BRIEFLY THIS EVENING ONLY TO
TREND BACK UP THEREAFTER. FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS, THEY TOO ARE
EXPECTED TO MEET SCA CRITERIA FOR WIND GUSTS ON THURSDAY.
WIDESPREAD SCA LEVEL WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
FOR ALL FORECAST WATERS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES AS WELL
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THERE IS A GALE WATCH IN
EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FOR ALL OF THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS
FRIDAY MORNING WHERE THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR REACHING
GALES. SCA LEVEL WINDS LIKELY DROP OFF FOR NON-OCEAN WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL LIKELY LINGER ONWARD FOR THE OCEAN. SEAS
ON THE OCEAN ARE ALSO FORECAST TO STAY ELEVATED IN THE SCA RANGE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THOUGH WIND RELAXES ON SATURDAY, ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS WILL
MAINTAIN SCA CRITERIA ON THE OCEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EQUIPMENT
KOKX DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JM/JT
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...JM/JT
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