998
FXUS61 KOKX 232349
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
749 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2020
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL THEN OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AS A NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A SOUTHERN
STREAM WAVE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH CLEAR SKIES, AND NEAR
CALM WINDS, TEMPERATURES IN THE OUTLYING LOCATIONS WILL BE
COOLER WITH NEAR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE BEGINS
TO PHASE WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. BOTH OF THE WAVES ARE VERY WEAK,
BROAD, AND LOW AMPLITUDE. AND AT THE LOWER LEVELS THIS WAVES
NEARLY WASHOUT AS THEY MOVE INTO SURFACE RIDGING. IN ADDITION,
THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE, SO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS, WITH MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDINESS.
THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND
THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY. AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH IN ASSOCIATION OF THE SHORTWAVES.
FRIDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN TO THE
AREA FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST, AND
WEAK RIDGING TO NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. AND ONCE AGAIN
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEACHES ON THURSDAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRES IS MODELED TO PASS S OF LONG ISLAND ON SAT. THE ECMWF
AND NAM ARE COMPLETELY DRY, WHILE THE GFS HAS SOME SHWRS ON
THE NRN FRINGE OF THE SYS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA. IN ADDITION,
THE GFS FIRES A FEW SHWRS ALONG A LEE TROF DURING THE AFTN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. STILL, FORCING DOES NOT LOOK GREAT, AND
WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF DRY, THE NBM POPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWN AND
CAPPED AT 30. ALL OF THE MODELING CAME IN DRY FOR SUN, SO THE
MINIMAL POPS IN THE NBM WERE ADJUSTED DOWN TO DRY.
AN H5 TROF DROPS DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST ON MON. THIS OPENS THE
AREA UP TO STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHWRS IN
THIS FLOW SUN NGT INTO MON, BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT. THAT TIMING IS
LATE MON AND MON NGT. POPS CAPPED AT 30 DUE TO CONCERNS OVER
TIMING THIS FAR OUT.
DEPENDING ON HOW THE UPR LVL TROF SETS UP, THERE COULD BE SOME
INSTABILITY RELATED SHWRS TUE INTO WED. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHWRS
THEN FOLLOWS FOR MID WEEK WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE NBM WITH LOCAL ADJUSTMENTS WAS USED FOR TEMPS IN THE
EXTENDED. A PERSISTENT SLY LLVL FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS ABV
NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE SECOND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A COOL DOWN
TO TEMPS AOB CLIMO.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEACHES ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TONIGHT WEAKENS AND DRIFTS EASTWARD.
LIGHT W-NW WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO S-SW COASTAL SEA BREEZES 8-10
KT THU AFTERNOON AT KJFK AND THE LONG ISLAND/CT TERMINALS.
WINDS AT THE REMAINING NYC METROS SHOULD BECOME SW 5-10 KT
BEFORE A LATE DAY S-SE SEA BREEZE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON LATE DAY SEA BREEZE KEWR/KTEB, HIGH
CONFIDENCE OTHERWISE.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
VFR.
SATURDAY
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY SHOWERS.
SUNDAY
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AM.
MONDAY
CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS WITH ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
TSTMS. SW WINDS G25KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
PERSISTENT S WINDS WILL BRING THE OCEAN WATERS CLOSE TO SCA LVLS
FROM TIME TO TIME THIS WEEKEND. SCA LIKELY FOR MON. THE
PROTECTED WATERS LOOK TO REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS THRU MON. THERE
COULD BE A PERIOD WHERE THE OCEAN GOES BLW SCA LVLS ON TUE, THEN
S WINDS KICK IN AGAIN ON WED.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...JMC/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...GOODMAN
MARINE...JMC/MET
HYDROLOGY...JMC/MET
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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