948
FXUS61 KOKX 301439
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1039 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST ON TRACK FOR A COOL AND WINDY DAY. GALES HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
TO THE CENTRAL OCEAN ZONES AND THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BREEZY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
2) MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK.
2) A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME ISOLATED MINOR COASTAL FLOODING MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES TODAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NORTH OF THE REGION WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD PASSING EAST OF THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL DRIVE
A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER TODAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE AREA. IT IS LIKELY THAT TEMPERATURES DO NOT GET
OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF CT AND LONG
ISLAND.
IN ADDITION TO THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, IT WILL BE A RATHER WINDY
DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-35MPH, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME GUSTS ACROSS EASTERN CT AND LONG ISLAND REACHING 35-40MPH. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW PEAK GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS AS WELL.
A FEW LIGHT TO POTENTIALLY LOCALLY MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL, MAINLY THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH THE BEST LOCATIONS BEING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
KEY MESSAGE 2
RIDGING RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND DRY CONDITIONS.
WITH THE START OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER (MONDAY - JUNE 1ST), MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE YET ANOTHER SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
DROPPING SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. FOR NOW, LOOKING AT MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK.
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKE TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL (LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S).
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SLIDES EASTWARD AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST RESULTING IN A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND
NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WHILE THERE WILL BE NO FAVORABLE WIND COMPONENT FOR RIPS TODAY,
A LINGERING SOUTHERLY SWELL AROUND 3 FEET AT 6S WILL BE ENOUGH
FOR A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR NASSAU AND SUFFOLK
COUNTY BEACHES. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT
FOR NYC BEACHES AND THE RISK WILL REMAIN LOW. FOR SUNDAY, THE
COMBINATION OF AN INCREASING SW WIND AND AN EASTERLY SWELL OF
3-4 FEET AT 10S FROM DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A
MODERATE RISK FOR ALL AREAS.
WATER LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A FULL
MOON LATER THIS WEEKEND, AND SOME TIDAL PILING ALSO POSSIBLE
FROM OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE DESPITE OFFSHORE FLOW. A FEW POCKETS
OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE TIDAL WATERWAYS
OF NE NJ AND ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF NASSAU WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDES SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PER BIAS- CORRECTED
BLEND OF ETSS/STOFS/NYHOPS FORECASTS. HOWEVER TRENDS HAVE BEEN
INCHING DOWN, THUS HOLDING OFF ON ANY COASTAL PRODUCTS /
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME WITH MAINLY ETSS ONLY GUIDANCE SUGGESTING
A FEW MINOR BENCHMARKS BEING MET.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
LOW PRESSURE TREKS EAST OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING.
MAINLY VFR. EASTERN TERMINALS (KISP, KBDR, KGON) MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT TIMES INTO THE AFTERNOON AND A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS, WITH BEST CHANCES AT KGON. BRIEF SHOWER POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE AS WELL, BUT RESTRICTIONS NOT EXPECTED.
GUSTY NW FLOW VEERS NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY. SPEEDS 15-25 KT,
WITH GUSTS 30-40 KT LIKELY INTO MID AFTERNOON BEFORE GUSTS BEGIN
TO LIGHTEN INTO THE 20S. WINDS DECREASE FURTHER THIS EVENING
AND BACK MORE TO THE NW TONIGHT INTO SUN AM.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
PEAK GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY: VFR. NW TO W WIND WITH GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE.
MONDAY: VFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY: A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MVFR POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
OTHERWISE VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAY BRING
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IF A SHOWER MOVES THROUGH.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY FOR ALL WATERS AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS WITH N GUSTS 30-40KT. CONDITIONS
WILL THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT, WITH SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS 4 FT OCEAN SEAS LINGER. SUB ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345-350-353-355-380-383-385.
DISCUSSION...BC/MW
AVIATION...DR
MARINE...BC/MW
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