926
FXUS61 KOKX 181711
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
111 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2019
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY CROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
STILL EXPECTING CLOUDS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. NE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH HAS BEEN ADVECTING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE IS ALSO
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTH AROUND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS GETTING TRAPPED
BENEATH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AROUND 4-5 KFT. SCT-BKN STRATOCU
WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THIS SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHIFTS SOUTH
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD HELP CLEAR ANY OF THE REMAINING
SCT-BKN CLOUDS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS BY EARLY EVENING.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES DUE
TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE HUMBERTO.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/
SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS OVER THE TRI-STATE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE NEAR THE COAST, SO WINDS MAY NOT FULLY DECOUPLE HERE.
OTHERWISE, GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S.
THE REST OF THE AREA WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER
50S.
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ALOFT ON THURSDAY AS WESTERN ATLANTIC
TROUGHING CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIE OVER
THE REGION WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES
ON THURSDAY DUE TO LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE
HUMBERTO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED
PERIOD DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, LIGHT WINDS AND WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WILL DROP INTO THE 40S FOR THE
INTERIOR AND IN THE PINE BARRENS OF LONG ISLAND WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 50S. WITH BETTER MIXING IN PLACE ON
FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY,
ALLOWING WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES RISE HIGHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE HIGHS WILL BE 10-
12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.
HURRICANE HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INDIRECT IMPACTS WILL INCLUDE DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF AT ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR HIGH SURF OF 5 TO 8 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS SWELLS ARRIVE. REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
FOR OFFICIAL FORECAST INFORMATION ON HUMBERTO. CONDITIONS AT THE
BEACHES SHOULD IMPROVE BY LATE SATURDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
VFR. NE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS/GUSTS DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
KJFK TAF COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
KLGA TAF COMMENTS: GUSTS MIGHT BE ONLY OCCASIONAL.
KEWR TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KTEB TAF COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN TAF COMMENTS: NO TACTICAL AMENDMENTS SCHEDULED AND NO
STRATEGIC AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP TAF COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
VFR.
MONDAY
VFR AM. CHC MVFR IN -SHRA AND SW GUSTS 20KT PM.
MARINE
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY TO 5-7 FT AND THESE SEAS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO LONG
PERIOD SWELLS FROM DISTANT HURRICANE HUMBERTO. IN ADDITION,
WIND GUSTS COULD BE AROUND 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
OFFSHORE ON THE OCEAN WATERS. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL FALL BELOW
SCA LEVELS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY. ROUGH SEAS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY AS LONG PERIOD
SWELLS CONTINUE FROM HURRICANE HUMBERTO. SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
BELOW SCA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
HYDROLOGY
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EQUIPMENT
NYC NOAA WEATHER RADIO STATION KWO35 (162.55 MHZ) REMAINS OFF
THE AIR.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...CB/DS
NEAR TERM...PW
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CB
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...CB/DS/PW
HYDROLOGY...CB/DS
EQUIPMENT...
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