751
FXUS61 KOKX 271152
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
752 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE TODAY.
2) HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FROM MID TO
LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST TO OUR SOUTH WILL PASS THROUGH
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IT WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT BY ANY MEANS, WITH
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY BEING ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH CAMS ON POTENTIAL ENDING TIME OF THE SHOWERS
TONIGHT, IF THERE ACTUALLY IS ONE. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
IS THROUGH 8 PM, AS THE LOW TRACKS WEST TO EAST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NE
NJ AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WITH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY OUT
THAT WAY. HOWEVER, NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS
THE COUNTRY FROM MID TO LATE WEEK, WITH A TROUGH OUT WEST AND A
A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HEIGHTS
ARE GREATER THAN 594 DM, ABOUT 2 SD ABOVE NORMAL, AND 85H TEMPS
ON THURSDAY ON THE LATEST 00Z GFS ARE AT OR JUST ABOVE 22C.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTH
AND MAGNITUDE AS DISTURBANCES ROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST. THE 00Z GFS IS STILL SUPPORTING A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX
DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING, SENDING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
NBM TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM WERE A FEW DEGREES TOO WARM,
ESPECIALLY FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MOST NOTABLY WITH A 105
HIGH TEMPERATURE NEAR KTEB ON THURSDAY. THIS SEEMS TOO HIGH
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED 22C AT 85H. MORE REALISTIC HIGHS FOR NE
NJ ARE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S, SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR NYC WITH THE
REST OF THE AREA IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S, EXCEPT COOLER AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ARE EXPECTED
REGION-WIDE FRIDAY. RECORD HIGHS DURING THIS TIME ARE MAINLY
100 PLUS. SO SOME PRETTY STOUT RECORDS ARE IN PLACE. IF THE NBM
HIGHS PAN OUT HOWEVER, THEY WOULD TIE OR BREAK RECORDS FOR
THURSDAY.
MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (95-99 FOR
TWO DAYS, 100-104 FOR ONE DAY) BY WEDNESDAY, WITH ISOLATED
READINGS REACHING EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA (105+).
THURSDAY WILL SEE WIDESPREAD 105+ ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWER MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH HEAT ADVISORY
POSSIBLE FOR MOST PLACES EXCEPT NE NJ, NYC, AND WESTERN LONG
ISLAND, WHERE EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A FRONT REMAINS NEAR THE REGION DURING THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
PERIODIC WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY. MAINLY VFR
FORECAST BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR POSSIBLE WITHIN SOME SHOWERS. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ALSO.
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH VARIABLE
DIRECTIONS AT TIMES. GENERALLY MORE SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTIONS THIS
AFTERNOON AND MORE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO REFINE TIMING OF SHOWERS WHICH COULD BE A FEW
HOURS OFF FROM TAF.
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE TO LOWER CATEGORY WITH SHOWERS TO MVFR.
POSSIBLE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM, MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF NYC TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR. POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR EAST OF NYC TERMINALS
WITH POSSIBLE FOG.
SUNDAY: POSSIBLE MVFR FORECAST AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS FOR NORTHERN
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY: VFR.
TUESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. SW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
CONDITIONS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COULD SEE SOME WINDS APPROACHING 25 KT TUE
AFTERNOON AND WED AFTERNOON IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW.
RIP CURRENTS:
THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOOKS TO BE LOW OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 1-2
FT SWELL SETS VARYING BETWEEN 5-10S AND ONSHORE WINDS AT OR
BELOW 10 KT. RECENT OBSERVATIONS AT AREA BEACHES ARE ALSO
SUPPORTING A LOWER RISK.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JP
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page