325
FXUS61 KOKX 060800
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
400 AM EDT SAT JUN 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING. ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.
2) CONDITIONS TURN DRIER AND BRIEFLY COOLER BY MONDAY, BEFORE
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED WITH HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILDING MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
ANOTHER HOT AFTERNOON AHEAD, H850 TEMPS PROGGED +16C TO +18C, WILL
ALLOW SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AND
LOWER 90S IN THE URBAN NYC METRO AND NE NJ CORRIDOR. HUMIDITY
REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW IN COMPARISON THOUGH, DEW PTS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S, AND HEAT INDICES SHOULD STAY NEAR ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN THIS, NO HEAT HEADLINES WARRANTED.
THROUGH THE DAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DRIVING EAST WILL HELP
SHUNT THE RIDGING IN PLACE LOCALLY AND CAUSE HEIGHTS TO FALL.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC, DRAGGING A
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION INTO TONIGHT.
THE HEAT THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP BUILD MODEST INSTABILITY, WITH
SOUNDINGS INDICATING CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND 1500 J/KG ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. FORCING BEGINS TO INCREASE FURTHER BY LATE DAY AS
THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH WORKS IN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY,
INSTIGATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND CENTRAL PA, BEFORE THE ACTIVITY SAGS SOUTH AND EAST INTO
THE LOCAL TRI STATE.
LATEST SPC OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO EXPAND THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA NOW, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR
EASTERN LI. THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM LOOKS TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS. UPWARDS OF 1000 J/KG OF DCAPE PUNCTUATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC.
BY EARLY EVENING, STRENGTHENING UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR VALUES
WITH THE WANING INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP TRANSITION THE
CONVECTION FROM MULTICELLULAR INTO MORE BROKEN LINES AND
POSSIBLE BOWING SEGMENTS AS IT REACHES THE COAST.
WORKING AGAINST A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT IS THE LATER EXPECTED
TIMING THAT LIKELY MISSES PEAK DIURNAL HEATING FOR MOST,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, ANY CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
PRIOR TO THE MAIN ACTIVITY COULD HELP TO INHIBIT DOWNSTREAM
DEVELOPMENT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS LOW. LIMITED
MOISTURE PROFILES COULD ALSO RESTRAIN THE SEVERE THREAT. THE
NAM3KM HINTS AT THIS, DEPICTING MUCH MORE LIMITED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE. OVERALL THOUGH, LATEST CAMS EARLY THIS MORNING KEEP
THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY OUT OF THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE WORKING INTO THE LOHUD VALLEY AND NE NJ
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THEN SPREADING TO THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING.
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM COULD LEAD TO MINOR URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING, WITH SUFFICIENT STORM MOTION LIKELY
MITIGATING ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT. THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD
RISK IS LOW, THOUGH CAN'T ENTIRELY RULE OUT A LOCALIZED THREAT.
THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WORKS OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ADVECT IN WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW WORKS THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY, WITH MIXING AND A
WEST WIND TO START HELPING TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST GET INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THE COLD POOL ALOFT COULD ALLOW A FEW
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS S CT WHERE FORCING SHOULD BE HIGHEST.
STILL, COVERAGE APPEARS RATHER LIMITED, MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED, AND MOST SHOULD ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE DAY.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH, MOVING OVERHEAD
INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW DRY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING CLOSER TO, BUT STILL ABOVE, NORMAL FOR EARLY JUNE.
HIGHS MONDAY AFTERNOON RANGE FROM AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST, TO
LOW TO MID 80S INLAND.
THE PATTERN COULD BECOME A BIT MORE UNSETTLED MID TO LATE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE, AND A WARM, MOIST FLOW DEVELOPS
AROUND THE RIDGE. WITH THIS, EXPECT INCREASING HUMIDITY WITH
THE HOT AFTERNOONS, AND HEAT INDICES COULD APPROACH 100F IN SOME
AREAS BY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT,
WHICH PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
MAINLY VFR, OUTSIDE OF A 5 TO 6 HOUR WINDOW OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT, MAINLY BEFORE 06Z
SUN. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY. FOR THE TIME BEING THUNDER BEING HANDLED WITH PROB30
GROUPS. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH OVERALL COVERAGE, THUS THE
PROB30 GROUPS FOR THE TIME BEING. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES THEN TEMPO
GROUPS CAN BE INTRODUCED IN SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES. RIGHT NOW, THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER LOOKS TO BE TOWARDS AND AFTER 00Z SUNDAY,
AND EARLIER BY 1 TO 2 HOURS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE NYC
TERMINALS.
WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SW AND WSW, WITH SOME TERMINALS
VARIABLE AT TIMES IN DIRECTION OVERNIGHT. SW WINDS THEN INCREASE
DURING THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, INCREASING TO 10-15KT
G20-25KT. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING AND ONSET OF INCREASING WIND/WIND GUSTS SATURDAY MAY VARY BY
1-2 HOURS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TOWARDS EVENING. AT
THIS TIME, THE 00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY TIME WINDOW IS THE MOST FAVORABLE
TIME.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY NIGHT: SUB-VFR IN ANY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS,
OTHERWISE VFR, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. SW WIND G20 KT IN THE EVENING,
BUT HIGHER IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS. W WIND TOWARDS DAYBREAK.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IN WIDELY
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NW G15-20KT.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN FROM 2 PM
THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY. STRENGTHENING SW FLOW TODAY
WILL BUILD OCEAN SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT ON THE OCEAN, WITH WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT DEVELOPING AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE, THE SW FLOW APPEARS MARGINAL FOR A SCA, SO OPTED TO
CONTINUE WITHOUT ONE FOR NOW, THOUGH IT'S POSSIBLE WINDS COULD
APPROACH 25 KT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND A
HEADLINE MAY STILL BE NEEDED SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT.
FLOW BECOMES W/NW ON SUNDAY BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
SPEEDS ARE MODELED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS, WITH SEAS ON THE
OCEAN SUBSIDING TO AROUND 4 FT.
BELOW SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT
TODAY AT ALL LOCAL OCEAN BEACHES. INCREASING SW FLOW 15 TO 20
KT AND 3 TO 4 FT SWELLS W/ 8 SEC PERIODS DRIVE THIS THREAT.
SUNDAY'S RISK REMAINS MODERATE FOR NOW WITH A BIT WEAKER FLOW
THAT TURNS MORE PARALLEL TO THE SHORELINE, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE
THE RISK COULD INCREASE TO HIGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CLIMATE
DAILY RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SATURDAY, JUNE 6
KEWR: 97 (2021)
KBDR: 93 (2021)
KNYC: 98 (1925)
KLGA: 95 (2021)
KJFK: 90 (1968)
KISP: 90 (2021)
DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
SATURDAY, JUNE 6
KEWR: 71 (2021)
KBDR: 67 (2025)
KNYC: 77 (1925)
KLGA: 76 (2021)
KJFK: 69 (2024)
KISP: 68 (2024)
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ069>075-078>081-176>179.
HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...DR
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