872
FXUS61 KOKX 241946
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH DRY CONDITIONS, SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY THRU THE WEEKEND.
2) A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MEAN TROUGHING WILL EXIST OVER THE NE US THIS WEEKEND, DEEPENING
DOWN THE EAST COAST EAST NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, CANADIAN
MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS, WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES (AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL) AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S, AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S
ACROSS INTERIOR AND LI PINE BARRENS AND 60S FOR CITY/COAST.
WITH THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT, E/NE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON COASTAL SEABREEZES.
KEY MESSAGE 2
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH AN EASTERN US TROUGH
AMPLIFYING DOWN THE US EAST COAST (-2 STD 500 HPA HEIGHT ACROSS
MID- ATLANTIC) THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID WEEK AS A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATE DOWN THE WESTERN SIDE OF WESTERN US
RIDGING, WITH POTENTIAL CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NE
US MIDWEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY, GRADUALLY CROSSING WEDNESDAY, BEFORE EXITING
THURSDAY. SCATTERED LATE DAY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WEST
OF THE HUDSON R. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE DURING TUESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME WITH POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY ONLY AFFECT THE REGION FOR 12-24
HRS, BUT MODEL SPREAD EXISTS ON EXACT TIMING OF CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE LOW WITHING THE TUE-THU TIMEFRAME. EVEN IF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CLEARS ON TUESDAY, COULD HAVE LINGERING AFT/EVE INSTABILITY
SHRA/TSRA ON WED AND THU.
INHERENTLY LOW PREDICTABILITY ON DETAILS THIS FAR OUT, BUT THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM, SHORTWAVE FORCING, AND MOISTENING
ENVIRONMENT POSES A LOW FLASH FLOOD THREAT AT THIS TIME.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE RISING THRU THIS PERIOD AS WELL. THE
ANOMALOUS UPPER LOW/COLD POOL DOES BRING POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY
ENHANCED CONVECTION, BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WOULD BE
PREDICATED ON DEVELOPMENT/TRACK OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
EXTENT OF DIURNAL HEATING AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT. MORE
DETAILS AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES.
GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR LATE WEEK, BUT MEAN
TROUGHING LIKELY REMAINS.
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS GO LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TONIGHT. NE WINDS DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING,
BECOMING E-SE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS
INCREASE TO 10-13 KT SATURDAY AFTERNOON, STRONGEST ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
TIMING OF WIND SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON TO THE SE AT LGA MAY BE OFF
BY 1-2 HOURS
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON-SUNDAY: VFR.
MONDAY: MVFR POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM FROM THE NYC METROS NORTH/WEST.
TUESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SHOWERS LIKELY AND
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. S
WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
WEDNESDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR AND SHOWERS, POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS AND REMAINING NEARBY INTO
THE WEEKEND, A PROLONGED STRETCH OF SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK. PERSISTENT
15G20KT EASTERLY FLOW SAT AND SUN WILL LIKELY HAVE SEAS BUILDING TO
AROUND 4FT, POSSIBLY TOUCHING 5FT.
THEREAFTER, SCA CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO THE OCEAN WATERS AND
POSSIBLY ALL WATERS TUE-WED, BUT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF
FRONTAL SYSTEM AND POSSIBLE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WITHIN AN E TO W
LONG SHORE CURRENT REGIME IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
A 1-2 FT SE WIND WAVE/SWELL, AND GRADUALLY BUILDING 3-4
EASTERLY WIND WAVE/SWELL (PARTICULARLY SAT AND SUN).
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NV
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...NV
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