953
FXUS61 KOKX 171455
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
955 AM EST SAT JAN 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION ON
SUNDAY FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND CT. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY
WITH LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST.
KEY MESSAGES
1.) A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN AFFECT UNTIL 4 PM
TODAY FOR WESTERN PASSAIC, ORANGE AND PUTNAM COUNTIES. FORECAST
SNOW TOTALS IN THESE AREAS ARE BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. OTHER
ARES IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, WESTERN CT AND NORTHEAST NJ
WILL LIKELY SEE BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES. ELSEWHERE LESS THAN HALF
AN INCH IS EXPECTED.
2.) A COASTAL LOW WILL LIKELY BRING MORE LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
SNOW CONTINUES TO BE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA, WITH MORE
UNCERTAINTY FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS. LATEST FORECAST HAS 1 TO 3
INCHES FOR SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND WITH AN INCH OR LOWER FOR
OTHER LOCATIONS.
3.) COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE
COLDEST PERIOD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SUB
FREEZING HIGHS TUESDAY. NO RECORD COLD EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND WARM
ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY IN OUR AREA. THE FIRST BATCH OF SNOW IS
CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY SHORTLY. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM ADVECTION AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
LATER TODAY, ANOTHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THIS LOOKS TO BE ASSOCIATED MORE WITH A COLD FRONT. THIS
FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TOO STRONG, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND LIFT TO BRING AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF TENTHS OF
LIQUID TO THE AREA.
ANYTHING THAT FALLS TODAY NORTH AND WEST OF NYC WILL LIKELY
FALL AS ALL SNOW. OTHER AREAS COULD SEE BRIEF SNOW BEFORE A
CHANGEOVER TO A MIX OR ALL PLAIN RAIN. WITH TEMPERATURES ALREADY
RUNNING WARMER THAN FORECAST, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR NYC, WESTERN LI AND COASTAL CT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US WILL LIFT TOWARDS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL AID
IN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST US COAST.
TRACK VARIABILITY CONTINUES TO LESSEN WITH THE LATEST 00Z
GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION FOR EASTERN LI AND CT, BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
FARTHER WEST. AI GUIDANCE AND SOME DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SEEMS
TO BE TRYING TO MEET IN THE MIDDLE THE LAST FEW RUNS. LAST FEW
RUNS OF THE AIGFS AND EC-AIFS HAVE TRENDED JUST SLIGHTLY FARTHER
SOUTHEAST WITH THE LOW CENTER AND LOWER WITH QPF. LATEST
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND NAM HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO FORECAST 1 TO 3
INCHES FOR SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND AND AN INCH OR LOWER
ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME CONCERN NOW WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND HOW WELL SNOW WILL ACTUALLY BE ABLE TO
ACCUMULATE IN SOME OF THOSE EASTERN AREAS. THIS TREND WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED, BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT FORECAST AT LIKELY SNOW
WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE RAIN. IT COULD BE A SITUATION WHERE
SNOW HAS A HARD TIME STICKING AT FIRST WITH LIGHT INTENSITY.
LIFT IN THE DGZ LOOKS TO BE STRONGER SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD HELP INCREASE SNOWFALL INTENSITY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
COLD WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEK, WITH,
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE TIME. THE
COLDEST PERIOD WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS
CANADIAN COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE AS
MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DESPITE THE ANOMALOUSLY
COLD AIR NO RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SET. AND WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN
HIGHER THAN COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO NEAR 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR MOVES IN FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS REMAINING RIGHT AROUND OR
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL CHANCES OF LIGHT
SNOW AND/OR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS PASS NEAR THE REGION.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
VFR INITIALLY AT ALL THE TAF SITES WITH SNOW MOVING INTO KSWF
SOON AFTER 15Z WITH IFR TO LIFR. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
VFR UNTIL 17Z-21Z WHEN A PERIOD OF A SNOW MIXED WITH RAIN AND
MVFR CONDITIONS MOVE THROUGH NYC TERMINALS AND THEN LONG ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN CT TERMINALS 18-22Z. SNOW MAY BE MORE PROMINENT AT
KBDR AND IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE. NW OF NYC, EXPECT A SLIGHTLY
LONGER PERIOD OF IFR 15Z TIL 19Z WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
OF ALL SNOW. BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, EXPECTED A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN DEVELOP AND PASS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA
TERMINALS. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THE EXACT TRACK OF
THIS LOW. FOR NOW, EXPECT SOME MVFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.
SSW WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE A BIT
AFTER DAY BREAK AND REMAIN AROUND 10-13 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
VEER TO THE SW THIS EVENING AS SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS:
SWF: 2-4 INCHES
HPN/EWR/TEB: AROUND AN INCH OR LESS
JFK/LGA/BDR: LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR POTENTIAL -SN OR -RASN AS WELL AS FOR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW, MAINLY LATE MORNING
INTO THE EVENING WITH HIGHEST CHANCE EAST OF NYC METRO
TERMINALS.
MONDAY: VFR. WSW WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
TUESDAY: VFR. W WIND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
WEDNESDAY: VFR. W TO SW WINDS 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS DUE TO
ELEVATED SEAS. LATE TONIGHT THE ADVISORY COMES DOWN FOR THE WESTERN
OCEAN ZONE BUT IT HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
OCEAN ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY.
THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF LULL SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SEAS AND WINDS
START TO INCREASE ON MONDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF NEXT WEEK FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND MONDAY AND
TUESDAY FOR THE NON-OCEAN WATERS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NYZ067-068.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...BC/JT
AVIATION...BC/MET
MARINE...BC/JT
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