922
FXUS61 KOKX 230141
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
941 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
SOUTHERN NASSAU COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A COASTAL STORM COULD IMPACT THE AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO
SUNDAY.
2) COASTAL FLOODING, HIGH SURF AND BEACH EROSION COULD BECOME A
CONCERN THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE STORM
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY.
3) A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
GLOBAL MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A COASTAL LOW TRACKING SE OF US
DURING THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY PERIOD, BUT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP
REGARDING HOW CLOSE THE CENTER OF THE STORM WILL BE AND WHETHER
OR NOT IT LINGERS NEARBY OR RETROGRADES CLOSER TO US INTO
SUNDAY. CLUSTER ANALYSIS OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE LREF RUN FAVORS
A 500MB PATTERN THAT WOULD FAVOR A SURFACE LOW TRACK NEAR THE
40N/70W BENCHMARK AT SOME POINT IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME, THEN MEANDERING NEAR THE BENCHMARK THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY. THIS IS A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT FROM THE PREVIOUS
LREF RUN, AND TODAY'S 13Z NBM RUN HAS ALSO SHIFTED A LITTLE
EAST, BUT THE STORM WOULD STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH FOR IMPACTS TO
BE REALIZED HERE.
REGARDING RAINFALL, POP HAS TRENDED LOWER WITH THE EASTERN SHIFT
OF THE NBM FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. RAIN CHANCES GO ABOVE
50% ONLY FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT FOR A PERIOD DURING
THE EVENT (SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT). GIVEN THAT EASTERN
ZONES IN THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY HANDLE MORE RAINFALL BEFORE
FLOODING VS WESTERN ZONES, FLOODING IMPACTS DUE TO RAINFALL ARE
NOT MUCH OF A CONCERN AT THIS POINT. NO CONCERNS YET FOR ANY
NEED FOR HIGH WIND WARNINGS, BUT PERHAPS ADVISORIES COULD BE
NEEDED FOR SOME COASTAL AREAS AS EARLY AS LATE DAY FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT - STILL TOO EARLY IN THE GAME FOR HIGH CONFIDENCE.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AHEAD OF THE STORM, PERSISTENT NE FLOW BETWEEN STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTH COULD
HELP TRAP WATER AND ALLOW IT TO PILE THROUGH LATE WEEK,
EXACERBATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TIDAL FLOODING.
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT HOISTED FOR S NASSAU FOR WED AFT/EVE HIGH
TIDE CYCLE. BRIEF MINOR FLOODING OF THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCATIONS
IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE WATERFRONT. A FEW OF THE MOST VULNERABLE
SPOTS ALONG THE GREAT SOUTH BAY INTO SW SUFFOLK MAY ALSO BRIEFLY
TOUCH MINOR FLOOD BENCHMARKS WITH EARLY WED EVENING'S HIGH TIDE.
THEREAFTER, THE COMBINATION OF NE WINDS, INCREASING ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES (FULL MOON ON SATURDAY), AND BUILDING SEAS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN MULTIPLE EPISODES OF MINOR TO LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, AND BEACH FLOODING/EROSION,
WITH THE GREATEST IMPACTS LIKELY OCCURRING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
THE DEGREE TO WHICH THOUGH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT PLACEMENT
AND INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM, WITH WIND DIRECTION BEING A KEY
FACTOR IN DETERMINING THE SEVERITY OF COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG ALL LOCAL OCEAN
BEACHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INCREASING E SWELLS 8-10 FT AT A 9
SEC PERIOD, AND STRENGTHENING NE FLOW ABOVE 20 KT DRIVE THIS
RISK.
THE HIGH RISK PERSISTS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK WITH FURTHER
BUILDING OCEAN SWELLS AND WINDS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES NEARBY.
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG THE COASTLINE INCREASE THROUGH MID WEEK AS
WELL, POTENTIALLY TOPPING 6 FT BY THURSDAY.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS.
NE WINDS TONIGHT COULD GUST TO OVER 20 KT AT TIMES ESPECIALLY AT
TERMINALS WITH GOOD EXPOSURE FROM THAT DIRECTION SUCH AS
KLGA/KBDR. SPEEDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT WED
AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMD EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY: VFR. NE WINDS G25-30KT, HIGHEST
AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER COND IN SHOWERS AS A COASTAL
STORM NEARS THE AREA. N-NE WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-35 KT,
HIGHEST EAST OF NYC METROS AND ALONG THE COAST. WINDS/GUSTS MAY
BE UP TO 10 KT HIGHER THAN FCST IF THE STORM IS CLOSER TO THE
AREA.
SUNDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN SHOWERS. N-NE WINDS 20-25G30KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
NO CHANGES TO THE HEADLINES, HOWEVER THINKING IS THAT SOME OF THE
NON-OCEAN WATERS COULD FALL SHORT OF GALE FORCE GUSTS DURING THE
CURRENTLY WARNED PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
DOWNGRADE TO AN ADVISORY HOWEVER. SCA CONDS OTHERWISE FOR THE
NON- OCEAN WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND PROBABLY
CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. GALES EXPECTED ON ALL OCEAN WATERS
TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AND PROBABLY CONTINUE FOR A FEW PERIODS
THEREAFTER. HAVE NOT EXTENDED ANY HEADLINES IN TIME YET - IN
LINE WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
340-345.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ335-338.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355-380-
383-385.
DISCUSSION...JC/DR
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...JC
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