962
FXUS61 KOKX 171518
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1118 AM EDT THU SEP 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SHOWER CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, POSSIBLY A
TSTM ESPECIALLY NW OF NYC. NO IMPACTS EXPECTED.
2) LOWERING HUMIDITY DURING FRIDAY WITH DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
THROUGH SATURDAY.
3) WET WEATHER INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER IT REMAINS UNSETTLED INTO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
FCST UP DATE TO INTRODUCE CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY FROM THE NYC
METRO AREA NORTH/WEST THIS AFTERNOON. BAND OF SHOWERS OVER
EASTERN PA HAS WEAKENED THIS MORNING BUT STILL DO THINK IT WILL
REACH THE NYC METRO AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE MARINE
LAYER TO THE EAST.
SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER MENTIONED FROM NYC METRO NORTH/WEST AS
WELL. OTHERWISE HAVE CHANCE TO LIKELY POP FOR TONIGHT, WITH THE
HIGHER POP ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SE CT. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND UNDER 1/4 INCH, ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS N AND NW CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
IN ANY T-STORM. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS OVERNIGHT FROM
NW TO SE, BRINGING SHOWERS TO AN END LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY WORK IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST THE GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE 60S DURING
FRIDAY MORNING, AND THEN THROUGH THE 50S DURING THE REMAINDER
OF FRIDAY, AND POTENTIALLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 40S BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD ALLOW OUTLYING AREAS TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH RESPECT TO MINIMUM TEMPERATURES BY
SATURDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE GETTING FURTHER EAST DURING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND A DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT
OF THE UPPER 60S TO BEGIN THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. MAINTAINING LIKELY POP AND ALSO HAVE
CATEGORICAL POP THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY, WITH POP TRAILING OFF
FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY NIGHT.
AFTERWARDS, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE AT THIS
TIME WITH UNCERTAINTY AROUND THE EVENTUAL POSITIONING OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATEST TREND IN THE NWP GLOBAL AND AI
GUIDANCE HAS THE BOUNDARY GETTING FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE. THUS, MONDAY MAY JUST FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUDS
WITH PERHAPS THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING SOUTH OF
THE AREA. THIS THEME CONTINUES INTO MID WEEK, WITH SOME
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BRINGING RAIN BACK INTO THE REGION LATER
TUESDAY. POP MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED FOR TUE AND WED IN FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES IF THE ECMWF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH GUIDANCE
INDICATING AN ONSHORE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY, MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING FROM NW TO SE.
THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO FOR SOME SHOWERS FROM ABOUT 17-20Z. A LINE OF
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EASTERN PA ARE APPROACHING THE PA/NJ
BORDER AND HOLDING TOGETHER FOR NOW. ITS LIKELY ONCE THESE
SHOWERS REACH NYC, THEY WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE/FALL APART.
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. SOME SHOWERS TONIGHT WITH THE COLD FRONT
MAY PRODUCE SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM NORTH AND WEST OF NYC TERMINALS.
REGARDING WINDS, GENERALLY A SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR 5-10 KT FOR
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME TERMINALS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH
WINDS LESS THAN 5 KTS ALONG WITH VARIABLE DIRECTIONS INTO THIS
MORNING AS WELL AS FOR SOME TIME LATE TONIGHT. WINDS SHIFT POST
COLD FRONT MORE TO THE W-NW WITH WIND SPEEDS NEAR 10 KT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS POSSIBLE FOR TIMING OF SHOWERS AND MVFR WHICH COULD
BE OFF BY 1-3 HOURS.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS, MAINLY EAST OF NYC TERMINALS
EARLY. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING, BUT MAINLY VFR.
SATURDAY: VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT,
THEN BECOME WIDESPREAD SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE AT TIMES.
SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS NEAR 15-20 KT SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. NE WIND GUSTS
NEAR 15-20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF 20 KT GUSTS ARE LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN OCEAN
WATERS INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE EXPECT PREVAILING SUB ADVISORY
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY AS WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF THE NORTH.
TOWARDS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, GUSTS OF 20-25 KT DEVELOP ON AN
NE FLOW. THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE TOWARD AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WEAKENS. A BETTER CHANCE AT PREVAILING AND MORE
WIDESPREAD SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND
CARRIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RISK EXPECTED TODAY, ESPECIALLY WITH
A SE SWELL UNDER AN INCREASING S WIND WAVE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
TURN OFFSHORE AND OUT OF THE N-NW ON FRIDAY. A MODERATE RISK
SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH THE RISK TRENDING
TOWARD LOW LATER IN THE DAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JE/BG
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JE/BG
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