662
FXUS61 KOKX 290657
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
257 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CT FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE
SPREAD TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK OF FIRE SPREAD TODAY FOR SOUTHERN CT.
2) WARMING TREND TODAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
3) WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTING UP NEAR THE AREA, MULTIPLE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
IN COORDINATION WITH STATE FIRE AND LAND MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS,
AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN CT FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF
FIRE SPREAD TODAY.
DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF
AFTERNOON RH VALUES AROUND 30 TO 40 PERCENT AND A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH GUSTS WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED RISK OF
FIRE SPREAD.
WHILE WINDS REMAIN GUSTY AND EVEN INCREASE A BIT EARLY TO MIDWEEK,
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE CLOSER TO 50 TO 60 PERCENT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY AND A RETURN FLOW WILL START TO
BRING IN WARMER AIR WITH HIGHER MOISTURE. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MIDWEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETS
UP TO OUR NORTH. THIS SETUP WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR WITH WATER TEMPS STILL IN THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S, WE WILL LIKELY SEE LARGE TEMPERATURES DIFFERENCES
FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS VS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT. WEDNESDAY
IS STILL FORECAST TO BE THE WARMEST DAY, WITH HIGHS ACROSS
NORTHEAST NJ IN THE LOW 80S AND 70S FOR OTHER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS. LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CT ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK CLOSER TO THE 60S.
LARGELY STUCK WITH NBM FOR MAXTS. THERE WAS A NOTICEABLE SHIFT
FOR TUESDAY WITH THE DETERMINISTIC BEING CLOSER TO THE WARMER
50TH PERCENTILE THAN YESTERDAY'S RUN. THE SPREAD FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY IS RELATIVELY LOW NOW, BUT POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR THE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER.
ADDITIONALLY, MOST OF THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS A BIT HESITANT NOW
TO BRING THE COLD FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THURSDAY'S
TEMPERATURES.
REGARDLESS, MANY COMFORTABLE DAYS OF SPRING WEATHER ARE
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SET UP NEAR THE AREA TO THE NORTH AND
BRING MULTIPLE PERIODS OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA MIDWEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. WHILE POPS ARE IN THE FORECAST CONTINUOUSLY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND, THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A WASHOUT
BY ANY MEANS.
THE MAIN PERIOD OF INTEREST IS WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THE STALLED
FRONT TO OUR NORTH DIPS SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT.
AS MENTIONED BEFORE, SOME GUIDANCE IS NOW SHOWING THIS FRONT
GETTING HUNG UP OVER THE AREA WHERE YESTERDAY THERE WAS DECENT
AGREEMENT OF IT PASSING THROUGH. THIS WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
POPS. REGARDLESS, THE FRONT LOOKS TO SAG SOUTH ENOUGH TO BRING
SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TO AT LEAST THE INTERIOR
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THEREAFTER, ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NOW LOOKS LIKELY LATE
IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF RAIN TO
THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT.
VFR.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH 12Z. SSW WINDS INCREASE
THEREAFTER, BECOMING 10-15 KT INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS 20-25 KT
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. GUSTS SHOULD END 23-02Z, WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS LIKELY FALLING TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
START AND END TIME OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY 1-2 HOURS.
THERE IS A CHANCE GUSTS TO BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST,
PARTICULARLY AT JFK.
OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY: VFR. SW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY: CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS 15-25 KT ON TUESDAY, STRONGEST IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEDNESDAY: FOG POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST EARLY, THEN VFR INTO THE
AFTERNOON. MVFR OR LOWER WITH SHOWERS LIKELY LATE DAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE, MAINLY NW OF
NYC METRO TERMINALS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR AND SHOWERS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TODAY, AN INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP. THIS WILL BRING SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OCEAN
WATERS STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND AN SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED.
SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE MULTIPLE PERIODS WHERE SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON NON-OCEAN WATERS, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THAT
BEING DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JT
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