568
FXUS61 KOKX 221446
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1046 AM EDT THU APR 22 2021
SYNOPSIS
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL SLOWLY
LIFT NORTH AND EAST TODAY, BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT,
THEN SLOWLY WEAKENING AND RESUMING ITS TREK NORTHWARD ON FRIDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST,
PASSING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL KEEP EXTRA CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND FORECAST
DEWPOINTS WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY. CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES ADDED
FOR PARTS OF LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT WHICH
SHOULD BE ENDING BEFORE THE START OF THIS AFTERNOON. DRY LOW
LEVELS WITH LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL
MAKE FOR A LOT OF PRECIPITATION NOT TO REACH THE GROUND.
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
WEST WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. A FEW PEAK WIND GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE START OF THIS EVENING.
DEEP-LAYERED CYCLONE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY CLOUDS TO
FORM ABOVE 5000 FT LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AT
THE SAME TIME, AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
LATE APRIL, WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH ABOVE 50. THIS
WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER
WITH THE GUSTY WEST WINDS.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF THE DEEP
DAYTIME MIXING. STILL THOUGH, GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND EVEN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING COMPONENT WILL BE HINDERED. THE AIRMASS WILL MODERATE
SOMEWHAT AS WELL.
CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING OR LOWER TEMPERATURES IS HIGH ENOUGH AT
THIS TIME TO ISSUE A FREEZE WATCH FOR WESTERN PASSAIC NJ, ORANGE
AND PUTNAM NY AS WELL AS NORTHERN PARTS OF FAIRFIELD AND NEW
HAVEN CT. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE A PRETTY HIGH LIKELIHOOD OR
DROPPING TO 30 TO 32 DEGREES FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, CONSIDERING
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE IS BELOW FREEZING INCLUDING NEW RUNS OF THE
LAMP GUIDANCE FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
LESS CONFIDENCE FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE COAST,
SOUTHEAST CT AND FOR NYC WHERE LOWS ARE GENERALLY MORE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S BUT NEAR 40 FOR NYC. STILL THINK THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF FROST SO NO FROST ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY, BUT LESS SO THAN PRIOR DAY,
AND TEMPERATURES WILL TO SEASONABLE LEVELS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER 60S.
AS LOW PRESSURE WEAKENS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, GUSTS WILL BE
LOST FRIDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD ON SATURDAY AS
THE HIGH BUILDS OFFSHORE AND WINDS TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A PROGRESSIVE
SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW THAT INTERACTS WITH A NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE HAS BEEN
NO INDICATION AT THIS TIME OF PHASING OF THE TWO BRANCHES. RAIN
FROM THE SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE DURING
THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PASSING SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND DURING THE DAY. AFTER A WET
START TO THE DAY, RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW
THEN DEVELOPS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE
WEST.
THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON
WEDNESDAY. WITH RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT, THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. AFTER NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
TEMPERATURES RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY, AND BY WEDNESDAY
TEMPERATURES MAY BE AS MUCH AS 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.
AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA TODAY.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT FROM
LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS THEN DECREASE
THIS EVENING, WITH GUSTS FALLING TO 25 KT OR LESS AT COASTAL
TERMINALS. GUSTS MAY COME TO AN END ENTIRELY FOR A FEW HOURS
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AT OUTLYING
TERMINALS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
FRIDAY
VFR. WNW WINDS G20-25KT.
SATURDAY
VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY
MVFR/IFR IN RAIN.
MONDAY
VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
MARGINAL GALES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL WATERS TODAY AND INTO
THIS EVENING, ENDING ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS FIRST. THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE GALES WILL NEED TO BE LOWERED EARLIER
AS THE GUSTS MAY BECOME MORE OCCASIONAL AT 35 KT LATE IN THE
DAY. SCA CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRIDAY
WITH ONLY LINGERING 5 FT SEAS ON THE OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS ALL WATERS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
SCA CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY AS BOTH WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE PASSING SOUTH OF LONG
ISLAND. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NW WITH SCA GUSTS CONTINUING SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. BY MONDAY NIGHT, BOTH WINDS
AND SEAS WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW SCA LEVELS ON ALL WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER
AN SPS HAS BEEN COORDINATED WITH THE STATE OF CT AND NJ FOR THE
MENTION OF ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD SHOULD IGNITION
OCCUR.
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY WILL POSE AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE
SPREAD DUE TO LOW RH AND GUSTY WEST WINDS. MIN RH VALUES BOTH
DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES FROM
WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY FACTOR INTO HOW QUICKLY FINE FUELS CAN
DRY OUT. THIS SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY THOUGH DUE TO GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES. THE GREATER RISK FOR POTENTIAL FIRE
SPREAD APPEARS TO BE ON FRIDAY WHEN CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE DRIER.
HYDROLOGY
NO HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ005-006.
NY...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ067-068.
NJ...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
NJZ002.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-332-335-
338-340-345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-353-355.
SYNOPSIS...FEB/DW
NEAR TERM...JM/DW
SHORT TERM...JM/DW
LONG TERM...FEB
AVIATION...FEB/JP
MARINE...FEB/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...FEB/DW
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