883
FXUS61 KOKX 300911
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
511 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED FOR 09Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY, BUT THE OVERALL FLOOD RISK HAS
LOWERED.
2) AFTER DRIER WEATHER TO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, CONDITIONS
TURN UNSETTLED ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH FOR LATE JULY OVER THE NORTHEAST
GRADUALLY WEAKENS THROUGH TONIGHT AS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS EAST TOWARD COASTAL NEW ENGLAND.
THE COLD POOL OVERHEAD, CYCLONIC FLOW, AND ADDITIONAL FORCING
FROM ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO INSTIGATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.
PWATS HAVE LOWERED FROM THEIR PEAK ON WEDNESDAY, NOW SITTING
JUST ABOVE 1.5 INCHES, WHICH COULD STILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. GIVEN THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, ANY HEAVIER OR
PERSISTENT SHOWER COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED AND BRIEF NUISANCE
FLOODING, BUT THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT HAS LOWERED FROM
WEDNESDAY, AND THE FLASH FLOOD RISK FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS LOW.
WPC HIGHLIGHTS EASTERN S CT IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL, WHERE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS LIKELY TO BE HIGHEST.
EXPECT EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OTHERWISE, WHILE WILL CONTINUE TO
HELP MUTE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. FORECAST HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST, ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
LOWER THAN CLIMO.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HEIGHTS CLIMB ON FRIDAY AS THE WEAKENING TROUGH LIFTS EAST AND
OFFSHORE AND RIDGING BUILDS IN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES IN
FROM THE MIDWEST, HELPING TO BRIEFLY CALM CONDITIONS LOCALLY.
TEMPERATURES RETURN INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ABSENT A FEW ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY IN S CT, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
THE REPRIEVE IS SHORT-LIVED AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTH
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS, INSTIGATING LOW PRESSURE THAT DRIVES
EAST TOWARD THE REGION BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE STREAMS IN WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SUNDAY, AND PWATS
ARE PROGGED TO CLIMB ABOVE 2 INCHES BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
WPC OFFERS A MARGINAL RISK INTO THE LOHUD VALLEY SUNDAY, AND
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN, BUT GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS, WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY.
MAINLY MVFR/IFR FOR THE EASTERN TERMINALS AND VFR FOR THE NYC
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST. MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL OCCUR LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALSO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY, INCREASING AFTER
12Z TO AROUND 10 KT WITH G15-20KT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS ARE HIGHLY LIKELY FOR WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
AMENDMENTS ARE ALSO LIKELY FOR THE TIMING OF FLIGHT CATEGORY
CHANGES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT: MAINLY MVFR. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE EARLY.
FRIDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM NW OF
THE NYC TERMINALS.
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM.
MONDAY: MAINLY VFR, CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SEAS HAVE LARGELY LOWERED UNDER 5 FT ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS
AND THE SCA THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS EAST OF MORICHES INLET
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES ON SUNDAY, MOVING
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A RETURN TO SCA
CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN WATERS BY MONDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT ALL LOCAL OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY. AN OFFSHORE N WIND, WITH SSE SWELLS 3 TO 4 FT
AT AN 8 SEC PERIOD DRIVE THIS RISK.
THE RISK REMAINS MODERATE ON FRIDAY. WINDS TURN MORE ONSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH SPEEDS LIGHTEN AND SWELLS BEGIN TO
LOWER.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DR
AVIATION...DBR
MARINE...DR
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