940
FXUS61 KOKX 042321
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
621 PM EST WED FEB 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A PERIOD OF FRIGID AIR THIS
WEEKEND WITH INCREASING LIKELIHOOD FOR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.
SNOWFALL FORECAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY. SNOW TOTALS
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 0.5 TO 2 INCHES
FROM WEST TO EAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY AND CONTINUED COLD THROUGH FRIDAY.
2) AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL LIKELY BRING LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY ALONG WITH FRIGID AIR, STRONG WINDS AND
HAZARDOUS/DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
DESPITE A RELATIVE WARMUP, DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY, WEAKENING FRIDAY
NIGHT AS ONE LOW APPROACHES TO THE NORTH AND A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOWS WILL BE LOWER THAN FORECAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR
RESULTING IN BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEY MESSAGE 2
HEIGHTS DROP ALOFT FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH
W/CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN US.
A WEAK ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL PARTIALLY PHASE WITH THE TROUGH AS
IT TRAVERSES THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS AND
FRIGID AIR.
SNOW COULD START AS EARLY AS FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL LIKELY
START OFF AS A LIGHT SNOW IN WAA. ONCE THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
CLOSER TO SATURDAY MORNING, SNOW MAY BE MORE SHOWERY OR SQUALL
LIKE. DETAILS ON SQUALLS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME CLEARER OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS CAMS BEGIN TO COVER THIS TIME FRAME.
REGARDLESS, MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND CURRENT
TOTAL QPF IS A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS FOR WESTERN LOCATIONS AND UP TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH FOR EASTERN LI AND CT. USED NBM10TH
PERCENTILE SNOW RATIO GRIDS (ABOUT 17:1 SLR) AND AFOREMENTIONED
QPF TO DERIVE SNOWFALL. FROM WEST TO EAST ABOUT 0.5 INCHES TO
2.0 INCHES.
THE MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER WILL LIKELY END UP BEING THE COLD
AIR AND STRONG WINDS LEADING TO POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND WIND GUSTS WERE ADJUSTED FOR
NBM BIASES AND TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT. THIS GAVE MIN WIND CHILLS
SATURDAY NIGHT JUST AROUND EXTREME WIND WARNING CRITERIA OF -15
TO -20. DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A WATCH GIVEN THIS WILL BE DAY 4
NIGHT AND HOW MARGINAL THE CURRENT FORECAST IS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
NW WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING, BECOMING 6 KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT. NW WINDS INCREASE A BIT THURSDAY MORNING, BECOMING
AROUND 10 KT LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY AFTERNOON: VFR.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW. WNW GUSTS 25-30
KT LATE.
SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY EAST OF NYC
TERMINALS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR. NW WINDS 15-25 KT WITH
GUSTS 35-40 KT AND PEAK GUSTS TO 45 KT POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY WEAKEN SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SUNDAY: VFR. NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-30 KT.
MONDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SUB ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WIND
GUSTS MAY QUICKLY RAMP UP TO SCA LEVELS ON THE WESTERN FORECAST
WATERS TOWARD SATURDAY MORNING, THEN GALES ARE EXPECTED
STARTING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. DUE TO COLD WATER TEMPS, COLD AIR TEMPS AND STRONG
WINDS, MODERATE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS EVENTUALLY LOWER TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ON SUNDAY AND THEN SUB-ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR NEXT WEEK. SCA MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY FOR THE OCEAN WITH 5
FT WAVES.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR SUN FEB 8:
KEWR: 18/1985
KBDR: 18/1994
KNYC: 8/1895
KLGA: 21/1985
KJFK: 22/1967
KISP: 20/1985
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MON FEB 9:
KEWR: -14/1934
KBDR: 5/1963
KNYC: -15/1934
KLGA: 7/1979
KJFK: 8/1979
KISP: 5/1967
THE RECORD LOWS FOR CENTRAL PARK AND NEWARK ABOVE REPRESENT THE ALL
TIME RECORD LOWS FOR THOSE SITES. TEMPERATURE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FALL TO THOSE LEVELS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345-350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...MET/JT
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...MET/JT
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