713
FXUS61 KOKX 010232
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
932 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES NOW INCLUDE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1) FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, WARRANTING COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES, CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS WEEK, BUT EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AT OR BELOW FREEZING.
2) LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA AND COULD GRAZE THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
3) MINOR TIDAL FLOODING EARLY SUNDAY, POSSIBLY AGAIN LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
FRIGID TEMPERATURES PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS TONIGHT EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE IMMEDIATE
COASTLINE DROPPING TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 10 DEGREES. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE LARGELY -5 TO -15 DEGREES WITH EASTERN LONG ISLAND
PERHAPS CLOSER TO 0 AND SOME SPOTS IN THE INTERIOR LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY SEEING VALUES CLOSER TO -20 DEGREES. AS SUCH, COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
A COASTAL SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST US COAST WILL
INTENSIFY AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. OTHER
THAN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PERHAPS A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER FOR
EASTERN LONG ISLAND, THIS WILL LARGELY INCREASE THE WIND OVER
THE AREA, MAKING WIND CHILL VALUES FEEL EVEN COLDER. DESPITE
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S ON SUNDAY, A N/NE WIND SUSTAINED
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UPWARDS OF 40 MPH WILL MAKE THE
MAXIMUM WIND CHILLS VALUES DURING THE DAY BE LARGELY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
WIND FALLS OFF INTO MONDAY AND TEMPERATURE MODERATE SLIGHTLY TO
ALLOW FOR HIGHS EACH DAY TO INCREASE TO JUST BELOW OR AROUND
FREEZING THROUGH THE WEEK, THOUGH THIS IS STILL 10-15 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE. LOWS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST WILL BE IN
THE TEENS ALONG THE COAST TO SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE INTERIOR
AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING OUT OF CANADA WILL PASS NORTH
OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE
REGION. AS IT DOES, IT COULD PROVIDE THE AREA WITH SOME LIGHT
SNOW OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER
MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFFSHORE.
ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AGREES ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM.
BUT QUESTIONS REMAIN ON THE EXACT TIMING, TRACK, AND STRENGTH
OF IT. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE RIGHT NOW HAS THIS SYSTEM TRACKING
TOO FAR SOUTH, OR JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO JUST CLOSE ENOUGH FOR
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW.
HOWEVER, THERE STILL REMAINS A POSSIBILITY IT COULD DEVELOP AND
TRACK FARTHER NORTH. IN THIS SCENARIO, WE COULD ALSO SEE
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL. FOR NOW, WE'LL MONITOR THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CLOSELY AND NOTE ANY CHANGES WITH IT.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A FULL MOON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SURGE FROM OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG MUCH OF THE
SHORELINE FOR HIGH TIDES EARLY SUNDAY. AROUND 1.5 TO 2 FT OF
SURGE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. THE FLOW IS MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR SURGE EARLY SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
DIRECTION. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHERN QUEENS, SOUTHERN NASSAU, SOUTHERN SUFFOLK, SOUTHERN
WESTCHESTER AND SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD FOR EARLY SUNDAY. COASTAL
FLOOD STATEMENTS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SHORELINES OF LOWER NY
HARBOR, NORTHERN SHORELINES OF QUEENS, NASSAU AND SUFFOLK AS
WELL AS COASTAL NEW HAVEN FOR EARLY SUNDAY.
MINOR COASTAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AND WITH PRIMARY WAVE
DIRECTION OFFSHORE, AND VIEWING TOTAL WATER LEVEL AND COASTAL
CHANGE FORECAST VIEWER FROM USGS, ONLY LOCALIZED DUNE EROSION IS
EXPECTED SUNDAY. ALSO, ICE IS COMPLICATING FACTORS AND MAY
RESULT IN WATER INUNDATION FREEZING ON ROADWAYS IN SOME COASTAL
LOCATIONS WHERE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.
THE FLOW BECOMES LESS CONDUCIVE FOR SURGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE NW. HOWEVER, KEY WILL BE HOW MUCH
THESE NW WINDS DECREASE AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL STILL BE HIGH
AND THERE WILL STILL BE SOME RESIDUAL SURGE. MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FOR HIGH TIDES LATE SUNDAY AS
WELL AS EARLY MONDAY.
AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
STRONG LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF MVFR POSSIBLE WITH STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT KGON LATE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT
KGON WITH BRIEF FLURRIES SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
N WIND INCREASES INTO LATE TONIGHT TO AROUND 15 KT, WITH GUSTS
BECOMING MORE FREQUENT TO AROUND 25 KT. GUSTS HAVE BECOME
OCCASIONAL AND INCLUDED A TEMPO UNTIL 05Z/06Z. NORTH WINDS AND
GUSTS INCREASE SUNDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. HIGHEST WINDS
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 35 KT POSSIBLE.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
FREQUENT GUSTS MAY BEGIN 1-2 HOURS EARLIER THAN FORECAST AND
OCCASIONAL GUST HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED.
PEAK GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT, DECREASING LATE AT
NIGHT, AND POSSIBLY BRIEFLY ENDING.
MONDAY: VFR. NW WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT DURING THE DAY.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: VFR, LOW CHANCE OF MVFR ALONG THE COAST.
THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH A
STRENGTHENING STORM WELL OFFSHORE. FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORIES
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LI SOUND THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS
FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AND FOR THE OCEAN, THIS
INCLUDES THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY NIGHT. ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THEN FOLLOW THROUGH MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE WATERS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS.
SEAS ON THE OCEAN PROBABLY ARE STILL ELEVATED INTO MONDAY
NIGHT, BUT SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR ALL WATERS FINALLY OCCURS
TUESDAY MORNING. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT THEN SUSTAINS
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY,
HOWEVER CONDITIONS RIGHT NOW ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS COME LATE IN THE
WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ005>012.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EST SUNDAY FOR CTZ009.
NY...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ067>075-
078>081-176>179.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ071.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EST SUNDAY FOR NYZ080-
081.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
NYZ178-179.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR NJZ002-004-
006-103>108.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ331-332-
335-350-353-355.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ331-332-335-338-340-
345.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
DISCUSSION...BC/MW
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...BC/MW
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