825
FXUS61 KOKX 050844
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
444 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A LATER TREND FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH TODAY MOSTLY DRY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HEAVY
DOWNPOUR AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM TONIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
2. HOT AND VERY HUMID FROM THURSDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST HEAT AND HUMIDITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST FROM
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS REGION LIES ON THE NW EDGE OF
BERMUDA RIDGING, WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDING UP THE RIDGE
ITSELF AND THEN ALSO APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.
THE RIDGE WILL HELP USHER IN A VERY WARM AND VERY HUMID AIR
MASS INTO THE REGION THU INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DEEP SW
FLOW AND H8 TEMPS RISING TO 18-20C.
GUIDANCE DEPICTS BEST FORCING MAINLY SOUTH/WEST OF NYC TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION
(ASIDE FROM THE THIN LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE) UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TODAY. CURRENT FCST CARRIES ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE LATE DAY POP FOR PORTIONS OF NE NJ, THEN BETTER
CHANCES TONIGHT.
AS THE MOISTURE BUILDS PARTICULARLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD, THIS
WILL PRESENT AN ISOLATED SEVERE AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT,
PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STORM MOTIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (20-30 KT), SO IT
MAY COME DOWN TO WHETHER WILL BE ANY TRAINING OF STORMS OR IF
BRIEF VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OCCUR OVER THE MOST FLOOD VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS. THE WPC MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IS REASONABLE. THE SEVERE THREAT FOR
THU LOOKS ONLY MARGINAL WELL INLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2
VERY WARM AND VERY HUMID FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS ON THU/FRI SHOULD RISE TO AT LEAST TO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER
90S IF NOT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR OF NE NJ/NYC
METRO, WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S. THIS SHOULD YIELD
WIDESPREAD HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 95+ ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA, AND
AS HIGH AS 100-105 FOR NYC METRO, COASTAL CT, AND MOST OF LONG
ISLAND EXCEPT THE SOUTH FORK AND IMMEDIATE SOUTH SHORE. MOS
CONTINUES TO RUN HIGHER ON TEMPS AND LOWER ON DEWPOINTS THAN
NBM, BUT WITH SIMILAR HEAT INDEX VALUES. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
NEEDED FOR THIS TIME FRAME.
FOR SAT-MON, HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S
ACROSS THE NYC METRO AREA AND ACROSS MOST OF LONG ISLAND AND THE
I-95 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN CT.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE HIGH WEAKENS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SLOWLY
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
MAINLY VFR THROUGH 00-06Z THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR
POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR MAINLY FOR SOME OUTLYING TERMINALS INTO
EARLY MORNING IN FOG OR LOW STRATUS, MAINLY FOR KHPN AND KGON.
MVFR CIGS MOVE IN AFTER 06Z THURSDAY FOR MOST TERMINALS.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT TIMES THROUGH
THE MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERLY WINDS IS EXPECTED FOR
THE AFTERNOON MAINLY DUE TO A SEA BREEZE INFLUENCE. SOME
TERMINALS FURTHER WEST AND INLAND MAY BE MORE SW.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 20Z FOR
THE WESTERNMOST TERMINALS LIKE KEWR AND KTEB. TOWARDS 00Z
THURSDAY A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD GET AS FAR NORTH AS
KSWF.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH 6Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK FOR 09Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: MVFR OR LOWER FLIGHT CAT
AT TIMES IN SHOWERS/TSTMS, HIGHEST CHANCE FOR WESTERN
TERMINALS. WINDS MAINLY S-SW.
SUNDAY: MAINLY VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
COULD SEE A PERIOD OF WINDS/SEAS APPROACHING 25 KT AND 5 FT ON
THE OCEAN WATERS W OF MORICHES INLET FROM LATE DAY INTO THE
EVENING ON THU.
RIP CURRENTS: A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY
AS SSE SWELLS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE CLOSER TO 3 FT. THE MODERATE
RISK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY, HOWEVER IT MAY
INCREASE TO HIGH AT SOME BEACHES TOWARD EVENING AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND SWELLS INCREASE.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GOODMAN
AVIATION...MW
MARINE...GOODMAN
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