180
FXUS61 KOKX 241430
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO MEMORIAL
DAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WET, COOL AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENTS POSSIBLE MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON.
2) THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AND MEMORIAL DAY,
WITH A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT TODAY.
3) WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO RETREAT TODAY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A
WARM FRONT GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. THIS SLOW MOVING
FRONT WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES TODAY. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE
MODERATE RAIN THIS MORNING WITH A LLJ STRENGTHENING, BUT MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL BE A STEADY LIGHT RAIN. BY THE EVENING THE ACTIVITY LIKELY
BECOMES MORE SCATTERED AND SHOWERY IN NATURE, ESPECIALLY FOR NYC AND
NORTH AND WEST. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL LIKELY BE BELOW
AN INCH. SOME URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING CAN STILL NOT BE
COMPLETELY RULED OUT, MAINLY THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP
THIS MORNING WITH THE STRENGTHENING LLJ, PEAKING INTO THE LATE
MORNING. WINDS HAVE UNDERPERFORMED SO FAR, BUT ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS WE COULD STILL SEE SUSTAINED EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 TO 25
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWN A BIT
FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS DUE TO OBSERVATIONS AND LESS IMPRESSIVE
MIXING SEEN IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THE LLJ PASSES TO THE EAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND THEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY, CONTINUED TO GO LOWER THAN THE NBM GIVEN A COOL EASTERLY
FLOW AND PLENTY OF RAIN/CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES LIKELY TOP OUT
IN THE 50S, ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
THERE IS NOW A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY
AS GUIDANCE HAS STARTED TO SHOW BETTER AGREEMENT. THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THEN DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH A SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
ALOFT. VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE, RESULTING IN THIS
ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AS SHOWN IN
LATEST CAMS. LATEST NAM AND GFS SHOW PWATS POOLING AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT UP TO JUST UNDER 2 INCHES. THIS IS WELL ABOVE
THE MAX MOVING AVERAGE FOR THE OKX OBSERVED SOUNDING
CLIMATOLOGY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME HIGHER RAINFALL RATES FOR
THE AREA WITH ISOLATED HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE GOOD THING IS THAT
THE SPEED OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK. SOME AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE A QUICK 0.50 INCHES IN AN HOUR WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AN ISOLATED 1 INCH PER HOUR OCCURRENCE. DRY CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE 70S.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY DUE
TO A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW AND BUILDING SWELL. WHILE MEMORIAL
DAY AFTERNOON WILL DRY OUT AND WARM UP, THE LINGERING SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
THE BUILDING SWELL LOOKS TO PEAK TODAY AROUND 9 TO 10 FT AT 9
SECONDS OUT OF THE E/SE. THIS WILL BRING BREAKING WAVES BETWEEN
4 AND 9 FT RESULTING IN THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY. BREAKING WAVES
WILL BE LOWER FOR MEMORIAL DAY, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE
ADVISORY TO BE EXTENDED, MAINLY FOR SUFFOLK COUNTY BEACHES.
KEY MESSAGE 3
WARMER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY
TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S, WITH SOME
LOW 80S FOR THE USUAL WARMER SPOTS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES MAY RISE INTO THE
MID 80S. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH DRY, BUT BRING A RETURN
TO SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
A WARM FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS
EVENING, BEFORE LIFTING NORTH OR OVER THE TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT
AND EARLY MONDAY. A COLD QUICKLY FOLLOWS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING WITH RAIN.
THE RAIN WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO DRIZZLE TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LIFR
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.
A ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A
CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM FOR NYC TERMINALS AND LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY TERMINALS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR
MONDAY MORNING.
E WINDS OF 10-15G20-25 KT FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS FOR THIS
MORNING. AN ISOLATED GUST UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE. GUSTS MAY END UP
OCCASIONAL. WINDS AND GUSTS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AFTER 18Z,
BECOMING E-NE 5-10 KT THIS EVENING. LIGHT E TO VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
LIFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP SOONER THAN FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR 1/4SM FG THIS EVENING INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING.
WIND GUSTS MAY BE MORE OCCASIONAL THIS MORNING AND MAY END
SOONER THIS AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MONDAY: SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE MORNING, WITH A CHANCE OF TSRA.
IFR/LIFR, GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR/VFR IN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING PEAKING AROUND 20 TO
25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT. WINDS DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH TODAY, AND THEN CONTINUING ON THE OCEAN WATERS
TONIGHT FOR LINGERING ELEVATED SEAS. FOR THE OCEAN WATERS FROM
JONES BEACH INLET TO MONTAUK AND OUT 20 NM THE ADVISORY GOES
THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS FOR THE 20 TO 60 NM WATERS.
THEREAFTER, WINDS AND WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-
081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ331-
332-335-338-340-345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ350-353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...JT
AVIATION...DS/NV
MARINE...JT
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