508
FXUS61 KOKX 191138
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
738 AM EDT THU MAR 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY WARM INTO THE WEEKEND.
2) NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED IN THE LONG TERM, WITH JUST A
COUPLE OF MINOR DISTURBANCE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, AND
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING NORTHEAST TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MIDDLE 40S.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER BEGINNING FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO AVERAGE. BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S FOR WESTERN
AREAS. TEMPERATURES DROP ONCE AGAIN TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2
A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL WNW FLOW
REGIME ALOFT WILL PROGRESS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING, AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL RETURN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OF FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
DISTURBANCES, THOUGH THE GFS DOES SHOW A LATER TIMING OF SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY FOR THE SECOND SYSTEM.
ANOTHER MORE ROBUST SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
SE-S WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AFTER 12Z, BECOMING
10 KT OR LESS IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH AND SHIFT TO THE
SW THIS EVENING THEN W LATE. WINDS SPEEDS WILL BE 5 KT OR LESS
AT THE METRO TERMINALS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR OUTLYING
TERMINALS.
NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
FRIDAY: VFR. S WINDS AROUND 10 KT G15-25 KT, HIGHEST ACROSS LONG
ISLAND.
FRIDAY NIGHT: RAIN LIKELY WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS. S
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SW AROUND 10 KT G15-25 KT, HIGHEST ACROSS
LONG ISLAND, DIMINISHING LATE.
SATURDAY: BECOMING VFR IN THE MORNING. NW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
SUNDAY: CHANCE OF MVFR OR LOWER WITH RAIN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW AT NIGHT FOR THE
LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND CT. SW WINDS 10 KT OR LESS.
MONDAY: VFR. N WINDS G20 KT.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT, WHEN SOME 5-FT
WAVES COULD DEVELOP ON THE OCEAN WITH 25-30 KT GUSTS.
HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO DAYTIME SAT, THEN
GRADUALLY BUT BRIEFLY SUBSIDE SAT NIGHT. HAZARDOUS OCEAN SEAS
COULD RETURN TO THE OCEAN WATERS ON SUNDAY AS SW WINDS INCREASE
TO OVER 15 KT, BUT ARE MORE LIKELY ON ALL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING AS WINDS SHIFT NW AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AND OCEAN SEAS ABOVE 5 FT. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD LINGER ON THE OCEAN INTO MON AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT ANY SCA CONDITIONS SUNDAY/MONDAY COULD BE DELAYED
BY 6-12 HOURS FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MW
AVIATION...JP
MARINE...MW
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