886
FXUS61 KOKX 281943
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
343 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WHILE THERE ARE STILL CHANCES FOR RAIN THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIAL FOR
AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE AREA HAS LOWERED.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A PERIOD OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
2) COOL CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
AN H5 LOW DROPPING TOWARDS THE NRN GREAT LAKES WILL DRAW A COLD
FRONT THRU THE LOCAL AREA EARLY THU. THE MODELING INDICATES A
SOLID SHRTWV EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW, WITH DPVA GENERATING LIFT
ACROSS THE CWA. SOME WEAK MID LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG WITH
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH THE SYS AS WELL. AS A RESULT, A PERIOD
OF RAIN, FOR NOW THE FCST INDICATES SHWRS, IS LIKELY TO TRANSIT
THRU THE CWA WED NGT INTO THU. A SURGE OF MID LVL DRY AIR MAY
CUT THE PCPN OFF FAIRLY RAPIDLY ON THU, SO NBM POPS MAY BE A BIT
TOO HIGH. DID NOT CHANGE THEM HOWEVER ATTM TO COMPENSATE FOR
POTENTIAL TIMING ISSUES THIS FAR OUT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTS EAST AND WILL LINGER OVER EASTERN
CANADA, WITH BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL LEAD TO COOL CONDITIONS, WITH A
STRETCH OF HIGHS AND LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. STUCK
WITH NBM TEMPERATURES FOR NOW, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AS
THERE WILL BE A FEW NIGHTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHERE FROST MAY
BE POSSIBLE.
THE OFFSHORE LOW THAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS
SHIFTED FARTHER IN THE LATEST GUIDANCE, FAR ENOUGH TO LOWER THE
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY.
VFR.
WINDS GENERALLY S LESS THAN 10 KT, AND AT TIMES SSE. WINDS
DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
A S TO SE FLOW WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING 10 KT OR LESS.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: MAINLY VFR, LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS AT
THE NYC TERMINALS AND WEST, WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: SHOWERS WITH MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY: SHOWERS TAPERING OFF IN THE MORNING, WEST AND DURING
THE AFTERNOON EAST. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING,
BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. NW WINDS G15-25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY: VFR. WNW WINDS G20-25 KT.
SATURDAY - SUNDAY: VFR.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT
FORECASTS, CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE OCEAN WATERS OUT
TO 20 NM THROUGH WED DUE TO LINGERING SEAS AROUND 5 FT.
OTHERWISE, WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
INCREASING NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON THU WILL LIKELY
PRODUCE SCA COND ON THE WATERS THRU THU NGT, ESPECIALLY ON THE
OCEAN.
RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER 5 TO 6 FT SEAS AND 25 KT WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY WITH A GUSTY W/NW FLOW.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
DISCUSSION...JMC/JT
AVIATION...MET
MARINE...JMC/JT
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