610
FXUS61 KOKX 081150
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
750 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL BUT
ORANGE COUNTY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY. THE HEAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY
DECREASE THRU THE PERIOD.
2) SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, THEN POTENTIALLY DRY ON SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
MAIN CHALLENGE TODAY WAS THAT THE MET CAME IN LOW TO MID 80S
FOR THE ENTIRE AREA, WELL BLW THE MAV AND NBM NUMBERS. IT LOOKS
LIKE IT IS AN OUTLIER BASED ON EITHER TOO MUCH LLVL MOISTURE AND
STRATUS, DAYTIME CONVECTION, OR A COMBINATION OF THE TWO. AS A
RESULT, FELT THE WARMER DATA WAS MORE REALISTIC SO STUCK WITH
THE NBM AND EXPANDED THE HEAT ADVY AS A RESULT. IF THE MET
VERIFIES, THE ENTIRE AREA WILL FALL SHORT.
IT IS STILL HOT ON SUN WITH THE SFC TROF STILL OVER THE CWA
DURING THE DAY. THE CURRENT FCST NUMBERS ARE RIGHT AROUND THE
95 DEGREE HEAT INDEX CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ADVY MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED, BUT WITH THE DATA SO MARGINAL, DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
DRIER MON AND TUE WITH THE BOUNDARY S OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRES
INFLUENCING THE AREA. STILL HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 80S TO
AROUND 90. THE USUAL HOTSPOTS ACROSS THE SW MAY BE CLOSE TO ADVY
CRITERIA BASED ON THE 95 DEGREE THRESHOLD FOR CONSECUTIVE DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2
THE AREA SHOULD REALIZE AT LEAST 2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE TODAY.
HOWEVER, THE UPR LVL SUPPORT IS NOT GREAT, WITH SUBSIDENCE TO
OVERCOME. THERE IS THE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA, SO THIS
SHOULD HELP TO INITIATE CONVECTION OR SUSTAIN WHAT DOES DEVELOP
THIS AFTN AND TNGT. AS A RESULT, WOULD EXPECTED SCT-ISOLD TSTM
COVERAGE. THE MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC JUST TOUCHING THE SWRN CORNER
OF THE CWA LOOKS REASONABLE DUE TO THE LIMITING FACTORS, BUT
THERE ARE 30KT MID LVL WINDS TO WORK WITH ALONG WITH WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL SO AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE CHANCES POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE.
THE MODELING HAS BEEN PRETTY DRY FOR SUN, BUT THE TROF WILL
STILL BE WORKING SWD THRU THE AREA WITH TD'S IN THE LOWER 70S
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA. AS A RESULT,
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.
TIMEHEIGHTS SHOW THE SUBSIDENCE ATTEMPTING TO SUPPRESS THE
CONVECTION. NOT SURE IF THIS WILL BE GOOD ENOUGH. PERHAPS ISOLD
COVERAGE IS THE WAY TO GO FOR TSTM CHANCES SUN. STUCK WITH THE
NBM DATA IN THE GRIDS WHICH FOR NOW IS DRY.
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL INTRODUCE CHANCES FOR
SHWRS AND TSTMS AT TIMES DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF UPR LVL FEATURES
AND THE DIURNAL CYCLE.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.
VFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISO-SCT LATE DAY/EVE SHRA/TSRA WITH
SUB-VFR.
SW/WSW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15KT THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
UP TO AROUND 20KT. WSW-SW WINDS DIMINISH UNDER 10KT TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
GUSTS MAY BE ONLY OCCASIONAL. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS POSSIBLE
BEFORE 13Z. PROB30 TSRA TIMING FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
MAY BE OFF BY AN HOUR OR TWO, AND COULD BE POSSIBLY BE REMOVED.
OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SUNDAY-MONDAY: VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE WELL
NW OF NYC TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: MAINLY VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS ARE MODELED TO REMAIN BLW SCA LVLS RIGHT THRU THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED
INVOF OF TSTMS HOWEVER.
RIP CURRENTS: SW FLOW AND ASSOCIATED WIND WAVES WILL LEAD TO A
MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR CTZ005>008.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ009>012.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ068>070.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ071>075-
078>081-176>179.
NJ...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002-004-006-
103>108.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR NJZ004-006-103>108.
MARINE...NONE.
AVIATION...JC
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