686
FXUS61 KOKX 201731
AFDOKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1231 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FREEZING RAIN AND A WINTRY MIX REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE INTERIOR THIS
MORNING, BUT ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS WIDESPREAD.
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN AN IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR AT LEAST LONG ISLAND, NYC, AND NE NJ, BUT UNCERTAINTIES
STILL REMAIN.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX TO INLAND
AREAS THIS MORNING, BECOMING PLAIN RAIN MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. PLAIN RAIN EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST.
2) AN IMPACTFUL SNOWFALL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BROUGHT ON BY A
PASSING OFFSHORE LOW REMAINS A POSSIBILITY, ALTHOUGH
UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN.
3) POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING
SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
A MATURE NORTHERN BRANCH LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM IT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY, TRAVERSING THROUGH
OUR AREA AND FURTHER DEVELOPING AS IT EXITS TO OUR EAST TONIGHT. ITS
DEVELOPMENT IS AIDED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK AND
SOME WOBBLES OF MIDLEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE EAST COAST.
PRECIP IS NOW TIMED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA WEST TO EAST STARTING AT
7AM THROUGH MIDDAY. THIS START TIMING IS NOTABLY LATER THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A NUDGE WARMER THIS
MORNING AND FORECASTED TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER INTO THE DAY.
AS A RESULT, ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE A TRACE TO A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ACROSS INTER NE NJ, AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. ITS POSSIBLE SHOULD
TEMPERATURES END UP COLDER THAN FORECAST THAT A GLAZE OF ICE COULD
BE SEEN ACROSS INTERIOR CT WITH MORE ICE ACCUMULATION IN THE LOWER
HUDSON VALLEY, BUT CHANCES FOR THIS APPEAR LOWER THAN PREVIOUS. 00
NAM NEST AND 00Z ARW ARE STILL GOING HARD ON THE ICE ACCUMULATION'S
DUE TO MORE QPF AND LOWER SURFACE TEMPERATURES, BUT THE 00Z HRRR AND
00Z RRFS APPEAR TO HAVE THE MORE PLAUSIBLE SOUNDING PROFILES. THIS
INVOLVES WARMER TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WITH ISOLATED FREEZING
RAIN IN THE INTERIOR. SLEET/SNOW APPEARING MORE LIKELY AT THE ONSET
IN THE INTERIOR WITH PLAIN RAIN AT THE COAST. AS TEMPS WARM INTO
MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON, A CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN RAIN IS EXPECTED AREA-
WIDE. THEN AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TONIGHT, POPS BECOME MORE SPOTTY AND
ISOLATED, WITH SOME CHANGEOVER BACK TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX POSSIBLE IN
THE INTERIOR UNDER A COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW.
IN TOTAL, ICE ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR TO BE A GLAZE TO A FEW TENTHS OF
AN INCH AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY, ORANGE
COUNTY, AND PUTNAM COUNTY FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY MIDDAY.
SNOWFALL WILL BE LIMITED TO A TRACE OR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH FOR
MAINLY INTERIOR LOCATIONS. PLAIN RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP
TYPE WITH LIQUID QPF 0.25-0.5" THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN AGREEMENT ON A STRONG OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC/CAROLINA COAST. SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH HOW CLOSE THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR AREA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO
COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN MULTIPLE STREAMS/UPPER LOWS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.
THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE HAS LARGELY SEEN A WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GFS STILL HAS THE MOST EXTREME WESTERN SOLUTION, BUT
AVERAGING OUT THE LATEST AMONG AVAILABLE DETERMINISTIC GLOBALS,
ENSEMBLES, AND AI MODELS, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN AN IMPACTFUL
SNOWFALL. THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS WHERE. IT NOW APPEARS LONG
ISLAND HAS MUCH BETTER CHANCES OF REACHING 6 INCHES DUE TO THE
WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE LOW'S TRACK. HOWEVER, THIS IS STILL
SUBJECT TO CHANGE. EITHER WAY, DUE TO THE OFFSHORE TRACK OF THE
LOW, THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF IN SNOW AMOUNTS TO THE NW.
WHERE THIS CUTOFF WILL END UP IS WHAT IS STILL A STRUGGLE TO
DETERMINE.
01Z NBM PROBABILITIES FOR 6 INCH SNOWFALL HAVE INCREASED BY 10%, NOW
30-40% ACROSS LONG ISLAND, NYC, AND NE NJ. MEANWHILE, PROBABILITIES
ARE LOWER ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND S CT AT 15-25%.
TIMING OVERALL APPEARS TO BRING SNOWFALL STARTING SUNDAY MORNING,
INCREASING IN INTENSITY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN
TAPERING AS THE LOW EXITS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE LOW DEEPENING AS IT PASSES OFFSHORE, WINDS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED TO BE QUITE STRONG UNDER AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3
A STRONG COASTAL LOW WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. STRENGTHENING E-NE WINDS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT COULD
PRODUCE A SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT, PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. THE MAIN HIGH TIDE CYCLE OF CONCERN
IS SUNDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOODING COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON'S HIGH TIDE CYCLE, BUT A STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW
IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE LOWER WATER LEVELS AND LIMIT THE EXTENT OF
IMPACTS.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL PASS EAST THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH RAIN AND
DRIZZLE AROUND. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW THIS EVENING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
ENE GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TOWARD EVENING AND BACK AROUND TO THE WNW
TONIGHT.
...NY METRO (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF UNCERTAINTY...
AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES, MAINLY TO
ADJUST FOR TIMING.
OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SATURDAY: MAINLY VFR.
SUNDAY: VFR TO START. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY IN DEVELOPING SNOW SUNDAY. E/NE WINDS
G20-25 KT, BECOMING NE-N SUNDAY NIGHT WITH G30-35 KT. HIGHEST
WINDS AND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS
COULD BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON A COASTAL LOW TRACK.
MONDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW. N WINDS G30-35 KT. WINDS COULD
BE STRONGER DEPENDING ON COASTAL LOW TRACK.
TUESDAY: VFR.
WEDNESDAY: MVFR OR LOWER IN SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE.
DETAILED INFORMATION, INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FORECASTS,
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTPS:/WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ZNY/N90
MARINE
SCA REMAINS ON OCEAN WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST DAYTIME FRI, AND INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT E OF FIRE ISLAND INLET. 5-6 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED TODAY,
WITH 5 FT SEAS REMAINING INTO TONIGHT. A FEW GUSTS MAY ALSO REACH 25
KT IN E FLOW ON THE OCEAN DAYTIME FRI.
UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
PASSING OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE HWO FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE WESTERN LI SOUND AND NY
HARBOR. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS LOW POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS
FOR THE OCEAN ZONES FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET TO MONTAUK POINT. THERE
AFTER THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE MIDWEEK
NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM. CURRENT FORECAST
BRINGS SCA CONDITIONS TO THE OCEAN WATERS.
OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NYZ067-
068.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ002.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ353.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ355.
DISCUSSION...BR/DW
AVIATION...JT
MARINE...BR
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