423  
FNUS74 KEPZ 012239  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR GOOD FIRE...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
439 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2020  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1600 MDT ON JULY 01.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT TO MILDLY BREEZY, WITH MIN RH'S  
REMAINING ABOVE 25 PERCENT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STARTING  
THURSDAY, SCATTERED MOUNTAIN STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE  
AFTERNOON HOURS. VIRGA AND DRY LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE  
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY THIS WEEKEND AS AIR NEAR THE  
SURFACE DRIES SLIGHTLY. WINDS COULD BE GUSTY NEAR THUNDERSTORMS  
THAT DO DEVELOP. AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES STICK AROUND FOR THE WEEKEND.  
 
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......25 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....49-54.  
MAX HUMIDITY........68-73 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 19  
MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND  
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN  
THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......6700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 3 TO 4 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH  
AROUND 3 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (61000 KNOT-FT) DECREASING TO POOR (100  
KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........48 49 49 48 49 49  
WEATHER COV.....NONE S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE S CHNC S CHNC NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 2 1 1 1  
TEMP............81 76 69 62 58 54  
RH..............18 24 36 52 62 70  
20 FT WIND......S 13 S 9 S 6 S 2 E 2 NE 3  
20 FT WIND GUST.19 16 10 5 5 6  
MIX HGT (FT)....6700 2000 100 200 200 BLW100  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 13 SW 13 SW 10 SW 5 S 2 SW 3  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..84 33 1 1 0 0  
VENTRATE CAT....GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
THURSDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
RAIN SHOWERS EARLY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF  
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1000, THEN 4 UNTIL 1500, THEN 3 UNTIL  
1700, THEN 1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....81-86.  
MIN HUMIDITY........20-25 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AT 5 TO 7 MPH IN  
THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 5  
TO 9 MPH EARLY AFTERNOON. GUSTY  
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 8800-9700 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 2 TO 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST  
7 TO 8 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (48800 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (74000  
KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........49 49 50 50 46 43  
WEATHER COV.....NONE S CHNC CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHNC  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHNC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 30 40 30 20  
LAL.............1 1 4 4 4 3  
TEMP............51 60 72 81 84 85  
RH..............75 50 32 23 22 22  
20 FT WIND......N 3 NE 5 E 7 SW 8 S 9 SW 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.6 7 10 13 14 13  
MIX HGT (FT)....500 2600 6100 8800 9300 9700  
TRANSPORT WIND..N 5 NW 2 W 3 S 9 SW 9 SW 7  
HAINES INDEX....2 3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 0 24 68 72 54  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR GOOD GOOD FAIR  
   
THURSDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (25-35 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....50-55.  
MAX HUMIDITY........74-79 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH IN THE EVENING  
BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS  
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0-1700 FT AGL EARLY  
IN THE EVENING.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 4 TO 5 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST 3 TO  
4 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM  
SKY (%).........40 32 25 22  
WEATHER COV.....S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10  
LAL.............2 2 2 2  
TEMP............83 74 63 56  
RH..............25 36 57 71  
20 FT WIND......NW 6G7 NW 5G6 N 3G6 N 3G6  
MIX HGT (FT)....7700 1700 100 100  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 3 E 7 NE 5 NE 2  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..27 2 0 0  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
 
   
INDEPENDENCE DAY
 
 
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN  
THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S. LIGHT WINDS.    
SUNDAY
 
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE  
LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 90. LIGHT WINDS.    
MONDAY
 
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS AROUND 90. WEST WINDS  
AROUND 5 MPH.  
 

 
FORECASTER...DHUYVETTER  
REQUESTED BY...GOOD FIRE FEMO  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2008842.0/EPZ  
.DELDT 07/01/20  
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV  
 
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