522  
FNUS74 KEPZ 050039  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR 16 SPRINGS RX...USDA FOREST SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
539 PM MST MON MAR 4 2024  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1800 MST ON MARCH 04.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
WE WILL BE DRY AND WARM THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH LITTLE FIRE WEATHER  
CONCERNS. MIN RH'S TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TEENS, BUT WINDS  
WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE EVEN LOWER  
ON WEDNESDAY AND MIN RH'S WILL CREEP A LITTLE HIGHER. WE WILL HAVE  
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE  
ON THE INCREASE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER LOOKS  
TO RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 33.  
MAX HUMIDITY........45 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 12 TO 16 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (65000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE EVENING  
DECREASING TO POOR (1200 KNOT-FT) LATE IN THE  
NIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........5 5 5 6 6 31  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............50 43 41 40 39 36  
RH..............30 39 42 42 40 43  
20 FT WIND......W 12 W 12 W 12 W 10 W 10 W 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.22 22 23 20 20 15  
MIX HGT (FT)....4200 4200 200 200 100 100  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 16 W 16 W 14 W 14 W 12 W 12  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..65 65 3 3 1 1  
VENTRATE CAT....GOOD GOOD POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (20-30 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.  
MIN HUMIDITY........12 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS AROUND 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH  
AROUND 7 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING  
TO THE WEST 8 TO 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 5 TO 8 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (6000 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO FAIR (50300 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........4 OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME DOMINATED  
FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........25 25 29 20 20 29  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............34 42 54 58 59 59  
RH..............45 31 18 15 13 12  
20 FT WIND......W 8 W 8 S 7 SW 8 SW 8 W 10  
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 14 14 14 18  
MIX HGT (FT)....1500 1500 7700 7700 8400 8400  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 8 W 8 W 5 W 5 W 6 W 6  
HAINES INDEX....4 4 4 4 4 4  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 6 44 44 50 50  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR FAIR FAIR FAIR  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 37.  
MAX HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8 TO 11 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 7 TO 13 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1500 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW TO LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE  
PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM  
SKY (%).........31 48 45 51  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
TEMP............51 42 42 39  
RH..............19 30 33 34  
20 FT WIND......W 8G18 W 8G15 W 10G22 W 11G22  
MIX HGT (FT)....4400 4400 200 100  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 7 W 7 W 13 W 13  
HAINES INDEX....4 3 4 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..16 16 2 2  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
WEDNESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (65-75 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.  
MIN HUMIDITY........19 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9 TO 17 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 33 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......7000 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 14 TO 22 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 25 MPH  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (43000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO VERY GOOD  
(139500 KNOT-FT) IN THE LATE MORNING AND  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM  
SKY (%).........64 71 73  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0  
TEMP............39 52 57  
RH..............37 23 19  
20 FT WIND......W 9G18 W 14G30 SW 17G32  
MIX HGT (FT)....2500 7000 6300  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 14 W 22 W 25  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..43 145 140  
VENTRATE CAT....FAIR VYGD VYGD  
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
 
   
THURSDAY
 
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 17 MPH.    
FRIDAY
 
 
PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S.  
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS AROUND 13 MPH.    
SATURDAY
 
 
MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. HIGHS  
IN THE MID 40S. EAST WINDS AROUND 9 MPH.  
 

 
FORECASTER...BRICE  
REQUESTED BY...SACRAMENTO RANGER DISTRICT  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2405601.0/EPZ  
.DELDT 03/04/24  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL MATTHEW.BARONE@USDA.GOV  
 
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