999  
FNUS74 KEPZ 181617  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SLAUGHTER MESA - UNIT 7...GILA NATIONAL FOREST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SANTA TERESA NM/EL PASO TX  
1017 AM MDT THU OCT 18 2018  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1100 MDT ON OCTOBER 18.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
BURN AREA IS ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS AT THIS TIME AND SHOULD SEE SOME  
GRADUAL INCREASING SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES  
THAN YESTERDAY. AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE WEST WHICH WILL  
CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE AREA AND WARM  
TEMPERATURES UP THROUGH SATURDAY. VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL RETURN  
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE  
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN HIGH END POOR TO FAIR.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 49.  
MIN HUMIDITY........65 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 2 TO 7 MPH INCREASING TO 10 TO 18 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3000-3300 FT AGL  
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 16 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (43200 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM  
SKY (%).........80 71 61 61  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............43 48 49 46  
RH..............76 68 66 71  
20 FT WIND......S 5 S 11 S 14 S 14  
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 20 19  
MIX HGT (FT)....900 1800 3000 3300  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 16 S 16 S 16 SW 14  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2  
VENT RATE.......POOR POOR FAIR FAIR  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (45-55 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 34.  
MAX HUMIDITY........92 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........33 33 33 29 29 29  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............46 43 40 37 36 35  
RH..............76 85 89 89 92 92  
20 FT WIND......S 14 S 12 S 7 S 3 S 2 S 2  
20 FT WIND GUST.16 4  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2 2 2  
   
FRIDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 52.  
MIN HUMIDITY........50 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......200-2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 2800-4300 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 9 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (34400 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........39 39 39 39  
WEATHER COV.....S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC S CHNC  
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............34 38 51 52  
RH..............92 92 59 50  
20 FT WIND......SE 3G4 SE 6 SE 7G8 SE 9G10  
MIX HGT (FT)....200 500 2800 4300  
TRANSPORT WIND..E 7 E 7 S 7 S 9  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 2  
VENT RATE.......POOR POOR POOR POOR  
 

 
FORECASTER...GRZYWACZ  
REQUESTED BY...SILVER CITY INTERAGENCY DISPATCH CENTER  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 1816883.4/EPZ  
.DELDT 10/18/18  
.EMAIL NMSDC@FS.FED.US  
 
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