760  
FNUS74 KEPZ 160016  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR BACA PIT RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
516 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 MST ON DECEMBER 16.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION  
 
WE WILL HAVE QUIET FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO POOR VENT RATES  
FOR THE DAY. MIN RH'S WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. WE WILL  
SEE BETTER VENT RATES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL DRY WITH MIN RH'S  
NEAR 20%. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK, CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH  
LIGHT AFTERNOON AND EVENING WINDS.  
   
TUESDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.  
MIN HUMIDITY........17 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 5 TO 7 MPH IN  
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......2100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 11 TO 18 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5300 KNOT-FT).  
 
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM  
SKY (%).........3 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 5 3 3 3  
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............29 29 31 37 42 48 51 52 53 51 48 44  
RH..............53 53 51 42 34 25 21 20 18 20 22 28  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 5 5 5 7 7 7 6 6 6  
20 FT WIND GUST.9 9 9 16 16 16 18 18 18 17 17 17  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.11 11 11 11 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..5 5 5 5 34 34 34 34 36 36 36 36  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 30.  
MAX HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 8 TO 12 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2500 KNOT-FT).  
 
TIME (MST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM  
SKY (%).........6 6 6 9 9 9 16 16 16 16 16 16  
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE  
WEATHER TYPE....  
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0  
TEMP............38 35 35 34 34 34 33 33 32 31 31 31  
RH..............35 40 38 40 40 40 41 41 43 45 47 47  
20 FT WIND DIR..NW NW NW W W W W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 13 13 9 9 9 5 5 5 5 5 5  
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3  
TRANSP WIND DIR.NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW  
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 12 12 10 10 10 10 8 8 8 8  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3  
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR  
   
WEDNESDAY  
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.  
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......4800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 7 MPH INCREASING TO 17 TO 20  
MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5900 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING  
INCREASING TO VERY GOOD (100200 KNOT-FT) IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY (%).........10 6 4 3  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
TEMP............31 41 58 57  
RH..............47 34 21 22  
20 FT WIND......W 2G5 W 4G12 NW 7G17 NW 6G17  
MIX HGT (FT)....700 700 4500 4800  
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 7 NW 7 W 17 NW 20  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 6 85 100  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR GOOD VYGD  
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5  
   
THURSDAY  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.  
LIGHT WINDS.    
FRIDAY  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT  
WINDS.    
SATURDAY  
 
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH.  
 
 
FORECASTER...BRICE  
REQUESTED BY...PATRICK VALENTINE  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2527617.2/EPZ  
.DELDT 12/15/25  
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0  
.EMAIL  
FRANCESCA.CHAVEZ@USDA.GOV,RANDALL.CHAVEZ@USDA.GOV,DUSTIN.ROPER@USDA.GOV,PATRICK.VALENTINE@USDA.GOV,NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV  
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