138  
FNUS74 KEPZ 240114  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR GAP...NM-LNF  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
714 PM MDT SAT OCT 23 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 1900 MDT ON OCTOBER 23.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE AREA IS GOING TO KEEP BREEZY  
WINDS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, IN VALLEYS AND GAPS WINDS WILL BE  
TERRAIN-DRIVEN AND LIGHT. ON SUNDAY, BREEZY WINDS RETURN DURING  
THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY  
BRING A FEW GUSTY WINDS FROM THE WEST WITH SPEEDS UP TO 15 MPH.  
THE NEXT BIG SYSTEM COMES ON TUESDAY WITH STRONG WEST WINDS  
ACROSS THE AREA.  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 47.  
MAX HUMIDITY........49 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 4 TO 9 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-1100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 8 TO 13 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1700 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM  
SKY (%).........32 32 44 44 44  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............59 54 52 50 49  
RH..............26 30 32 37 40  
20 FT WIND......S 6 SW 6 SW 5 SW 4 SW 4  
20 FT WIND GUST.13 11 9 8 8  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 200 100 100 100  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 15 SW 17 W 20 W 20 W 17  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..11 11 2 2 2  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
SUNDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (10-20 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 66.  
MIN HUMIDITY........23 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......100-1500 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3300-4600 FT AGL  
IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 19 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (15900 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (76100  
KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM  
SKY (%).........18 18 18 10 10 10  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............48 47 53 60 64 66  
RH..............43 49 41 30 24 23  
20 FT WIND......W 5 W 6 W 7 W 9 W 10 W 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.10 11 12 14 14 18  
MIX HGT (FT)....100 400 1500 3300 4600 3900  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 16 W 21 W 28 W 28 W 24 W 18  
HAINES INDEX....3 3 2 2 2 2  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..16 16 16 76 76 76  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR GOOD GOOD GOOD  
   
SUNDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLEAR (5-15 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.  
MAX HUMIDITY........41 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 10 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 8 TO 9 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (300 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 5 PM 8 PM 11 PM 2 AM  
SKY (%).........13 13 5 5  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............64 55 53 52  
RH..............25 35 37 37  
20 FT WIND......W 10G12 W 9G10 SW 7 SW 6G10  
MIX HGT (FT)....800 BLW100 BLW100 BLW100  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10 W 6 SW 8 SW 9  
HAINES INDEX....2 2 2 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..4 4 0 0  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.  
MIN HUMIDITY........20 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-700 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4900-5100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 15 TO 16 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (3000 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (61200  
KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 4 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH TO OR LOW POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MDT) 5 AM 9 AM 1 PM  
SKY (%).........4 4 2  
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1  
TEMP............51 57 71  
RH..............38 34 20  
20 FT WIND......W 7G10 SW 9G10 SW 12G14  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 700 5100  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 10 W 10 SW 18  
HAINES INDEX....4 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 3 61  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR GOOD  
   
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
 
   
TUESDAY
 
 
COOLER, CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.  
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 14 MPH.    
WEDNESDAY
 
 
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. WEST WINDS  
AROUND 21 MPH.    
THURSDAY
 
 
CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST  
WINDS AROUND 11 MPH.  
 

 
FORECASTER...CRESPO  
REQUESTED BY...NM-ADC  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2119960.0/EPZ  
.DELDT 10/23/21  
.EMAIL NMADC@FIRENET.GOV  
 
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