818  
FNUS74 KEPZ 251755  
FWSEPZ  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR COLD SPRINGS RX...USFS  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM  
1055 AM MST MON JAN 25 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1200 MST ON JANUARY 25.  
 
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE EL PASO  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM HAS MOVED OUT AND WINDS HAVE GENERALLY  
SUBSIDED THIS MORNING. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH  
TODAY AND TUESDAY WITH MORE GUSTY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN  
SNOWFALL. SOUTHWESTERLY 20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY, BUT SHOULD  
BE LOWER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON SUNDAY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN  
ACROSS THE GILA, SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AND FAR SW NM BOOTHEEL BY  
MID-DAY AND CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW  
WILL OCCUR LATER THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM  
WEST TO EAST. SNOW TOTALS IN BOTH THE GILA AND SACRAMENTO  
MOUNTAINS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 8-12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER  
AMOUNTS, AND 6-10 INCHES IN THE SW CORNER OF NM FIRE ZONE 111.  
THE LOWLANDS AREN'T EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH SNOW, THOUGH NM111 AND  
FAR WESTERN NM112 MAY SEE UP TO 1-3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.  
ELSEWHERE, EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY  
BEFORE DRYING OUT FROM MID-WEEK ONWARDS. MIN RHS WILL REMAIN  
ABOVE 30-40 PERCENT IN THE LOWLANDS TODAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE  
DROPPING TO 18-25 FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE  
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH TUESDAY, THEN BECOMING POOR.  
 
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (90-100 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS IN THE  
EVENING, THEN SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY LATE IN THE  
EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......100 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 15.  
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 31 MPH  
DECREASING TO 29 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......600-2100 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST 21 TO 22 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (10100 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM  
SKY (%).........98 100 91 88 94 88  
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).90 100 80 70 80 80  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............23 19 18 17 16 16  
RH..............88 100 92 84 84 84  
20 FT WIND......S 12 S 10 SW 9 SW 9 SW 9 SW 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.24 24 18 18 22 23  
MIX HGT (FT)....1100 600 900 1500 2000 2100  
TRANSPORT WIND..S 25 S 23 SW 20 SW 18 SW 21 SW 22  
HAINES INDEX....3 2 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..30 12 12 22 34 39  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR  
   
TUESDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). SNOW SHOWERS,  
THEN SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 25.  
MIN HUMIDITY........57 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 9 TO 12 MPH WITH GUSTS TO  
AROUND 26 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......1600-3200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4100-4300 FT AGL  
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN DECREASING TO 2200  
FT AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 25 TO 26 MPH.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....FAIR (57100 KNOT-FT) INCREASING TO GOOD (79300  
KNOT-FT) IN THE AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY (%).........93 90 87 83 80 68  
WEATHER COV.....DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE  
WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR SNSHWR  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).80 80 80 80 80 80  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............16 15 21 24 25 23  
RH..............80 84 71 60 57 62  
20 FT WIND......SW 9 SW 10 SW 10 SW 12 SW 12 SW 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.20 17 21 26 26 24  
MIX HGT (FT)....1600 1700 3200 4300 4100 2200  
TRANSPORT WIND..SW 18 SW 13 SW 16 SW 20 W 21 W 26  
HAINES INDEX....3 2 3 3 3 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..28 16 41 69 79 57  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD FAIR  
   
TUESDAY NIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (60-70 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF  
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE EVENING.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.  
LAL.................1.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 6 ABOVE.  
MAX HUMIDITY........80 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
LIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......0-800 FT AGL.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 18 TO 19 MPH BECOMING NORTHWEST 3 TO 4 MPH  
EARLY IN THE EVENING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE  
NORTHEAST AROUND 2 MPH AFTER 3 AM.  
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (0 KNOT-FT).  
HAINES INDEX........2 TO 3 OR VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
 
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM  
SKY (%).........63 43 29 25  
WEATHER COV.....S CHNC S CHNC NONE NONE  
WEATHER TYPE....SNSHWR SNSHWR NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE  
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 20 10 10  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............16 10 8 7  
RH..............77 80 72 66  
20 FT WIND......SW 9G14 W 6G10 W 3G4 SW 2  
MIX HGT (FT)....800 100 BLW100 BLW100  
TRANSPORT WIND..W 22 W 6 NW 2 NW 2  
HAINES INDEX....3 2 2 3  
VRATE KT-FT/1K..25 0 0 0  
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR  
 

 
FORECASTER...ROGASH  
REQUESTED BY...DELGADO  
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED  
.TAG 2101240.0/EPZ  
.DELDT 01/25/21  
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV  
 
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