542  
FNUS74 KMAF 110917  
FWSMAF  
 
SPOT FORECAST FOR SW 4 BIG BEND DAY 4...NATIONAL PARK SERVICE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX  
417 AM CDT SUN APR 11 2021  
 
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 CDT ON APRIL 11.  
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER  
SERVICE.  
   
DISCUSSION
 
 
AFTER ANOTHER NIGHT WITH POOR RECOVERY AT THE CHISOS BASIN, WARMER  
TEMPERATURES RETURN TODAY ALONG WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS AS RHS FALL  
TO AROUND 5-7%. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE WEST BY  
LATE MORNING, THOUGH SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 15 MPH.  
SOME VARIABILITY IN WIND DIRECTION CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO  
TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS THROUGH TONIGHT. POOR RECOVERY IS EXPECTED ONCE  
AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH 20FT WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTH MONDAY MORNING  
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CHISOS  
BASIN AROUND 1600 LOCAL TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BECOME  
ELEVATED/GUSTY OUT OF THE E/NE FOR A FEW HOURS LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON  
TO EARLY EVENING.  
   
TODAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 75.  
MIN HUMIDITY........7 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 7 TO 12 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......9600 FT AGL INCREASING TO 10800 FT AGL LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 8 MPH INCREASING TO AROUND 15 MPH.  
HAINES INDEX........3 TO 5 OR VERY LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR  
LARGE PLUME DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM  
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1  
TEMP............54 55 62 70 73 75  
RH..............30 27 18 11 10 8  
20 FT WIND DIR..W W W W W W  
20 FT WIND SPD..10 11 10 9 10 12  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 100 1500 6300 9600 10200  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W S S W W W  
TRANSP WIND SPD.8 3 5 7 12 15  
HAINES INDEX....5 3 4 4 3 5  
   
TONIGHT
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING  
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT).  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.  
MAX HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH IN THE EVENING BECOMING  
VARIABLE 5 TO 10 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING AND  
OVERNIGHT.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000 FT AGL DECREASING TO 0 FT AGL IN THE LATE  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST  
AROUND 5 MPH IN THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM  
SKY COVER.......MCLEAR PCLDY MCLEAR MCLDY  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............75 67 65 63  
RH..............7 11 12 13  
20 FT WIND DIR..W N E W  
20 FT WIND SPD..12 8 8 8  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....10800 3000 BLW100 BLW100  
TRANSP WIND DIR.W S E NE  
TRANSP WIND SPD.15 7 5 2  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5  
   
MONDAY
 
 
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).  
LAL.................NO TSTMS.  
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 77.  
MIN HUMIDITY........11 PERCENT.  
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 11 MPH.  
MIXING HEIGHT.......8400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 13800 FT AGL LATE IN  
THE AFTERNOON.  
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTH AROUND 4 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AROUND  
2 MPH EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN SHIFTING TO  
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 4 MPH LATE IN THE  
AFTERNOON.  
HAINES INDEX........5 OR MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE PLUME  
DOMINATED FIRE GROWTH.  
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.  
 
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM  
SKY COVER.......PCLDY MCLDY PCLDY MCLEAR  
WEATHER COV.....  
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE  
TSTM COV........  
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0  
LAL.............1 1 1 1  
TEMP............59 62 72 76  
RH..............17 16 12 12  
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N E  
20 FT WIND SPD..9 11 10 9  
20 FT WIND GUST.  
MIX HGT (FT)....BLW100 800 6200 12100  
TRANSP WIND DIR.N NW NE S  
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 5 2 3  
HAINES INDEX....5 5 5 5  
 

 
FORECASTER...PHILLIPSON  
REQUESTED BY...DW IVANS  
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE  
.TAG 2108503.2/MAF  
.DELDT 04/11/21  
.FORMATTERVERSION 1.0.26  
 
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